Fed’s Balance Sheet Drops by $381 Billion from Peak: December Update on QT - By Wolf Richter -- Since the peak in April, total assets on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet dropped by $381 billion, to $8.585 trillion, the lowest since November 3, 2021, according to the weekly balance sheet released today, with balances as of November 30. Compared to four weeks ago (balance sheet released on November 3), total assets dropped by $92 billion. Treasury securities: Down $255 billion from peak. Treasury securities mature mid-month and at the end of the month and roll off the Fed’s balance sheet at that time. Since the peak on early June, Treasury holdings fell by $255 billion to $5.516 trillion, the lowest since October 27, 2021. Over the past four weeks since the November 3 balance sheet, the Fed’s holdings of Treasury securities fell by $59 billion: $60 billion of Treasury securities (at the monthly cap of $60 billion) Minus $1 billion in inflation compensation the Fed received for its Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). Inflation compensation is not paid in cash but is added to the principal of the TIPS, which increases the TIPS balance. Since the peak, the balance of MBS dropped by $81 billion, to $2.659 trillion. Over the past four weeks, the balance dropped by $20 billion, below the cap of $35 billion. The problem with MBS is that they come off the balance sheet largely via pass-through principal payments, and those have turned from a torrent into a trickle after mortgage rates spiked and mortgage payoffs plunged as sales of existing homes plunged and as refinancings of existing mortgages collapsed. In mid-September, the Fed stopped buying MBS after having already cut its purchases to near nothing. Given the delays associated with MBS that the Fed bought in the To-Be-Announced market, the inflow of new MBS onto the balance sheet ended in October. These inflows are the upward zigs in the chart. The downward zags are the weeks when the pass-through principal payments reached the Fed and reduced the principal balance of the MBS holdings. The resulting zigzag line has gotten ironed out, as the upward zigs have ended and the downward zags have dwindled due to the drop in mortgage payoffs. Various Fed governors have mentioned the possibility of selling MBS outright to get to somewhere near the cap of $35 billion a month – which means that the Fed might have to sell about $15 billion a month in MBS. I’m eagerly awaiting some official mention in the meeting minutes about it, likely sometime next year. The Fed bought its securities in the secondary market, and when market yields were lower than the coupon interest of the bonds, the Fed, like everyone else, had to pay a “premium” over face value. The Fed books the face value in the regular accounts, and it books the “premiums” in an account called “unamortized premiums.” It then amortizes the premium of each bond to zero over the remaining maturity of the bond. By the time the bond matures, and the Fed receives face value for the bond, the premium has been fully amortized. Unamortized premiums have dropped by $39 billion from the peak in November 2021, to $317 billion:
Stronger than expected US jobs report sparks calls for further interest rate hikes The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 263,000 new jobs created in November, significantly higher than the projection of 200,000 jobs. The official unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7 percent, a low level by historical standards. The rise in the number of new jobs comes in the face of continuing efforts by the US Federal Reserve to drive up the unemployment rate and trigger a recession through sharp increases in interest rates. Stocks fell on the news, reflecting expectations that the continuing growth in jobs will prompt the US central bank to continue its program of interest rate rises, which have already driven up rates 3.75 basis points since March. This is despite the fact that the 263,000 new jobs added in November was the lowest monthly total in two years. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates again in December. It had been expected that the rate rises would begin to taper off. However, in light of this week’s jobs report, there is now speculation that the Fed will impose another sharp increase. In remarks Friday, President Joe Biden hailed the jobs report, declaring that “we continue to create jobs,” before adding that things “are moving in the right direction.” What he meant by that he did not elaborate, but the deliberate policy of the White House and the Fed is to drive up the unemployment rate to weaken the working class and undermine the ongoing strike movement for higher wages. To this end he is enlisting the support of the trade union bureaucracy to prevent strikes and block wage rises. This was highlighted by Biden’s direct intervention in the rail struggle, where he has signed strikebreaking legislation passed by Congress and supported tacitly, if not openly, by the unions to impose below-inflation wage increases and virtually unlimited forced overtime. The negative reaction by the corporate media to the latest employment numbers was based on the premise that the decline in job creation was not deep enough, thus illustrating the antisocial character of the capitalist system. In the view of finance capital, higher levels of unemployment are a positive good, increasing the competition among workers for jobs and helping to drive down wages and boost corporate profits. The jobs numbers prompted Bloomberg News to write, “This is exactly the wrong report at the wrong time,” expressing the concerns of Wall Street that the relative availability of jobs will encourage workers to press wage demands in the face of still-surging inflation.
Will the Fed 'raise and hold' rates? Traders bet they will not (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers have all but promised to dial down the pace of their interest rate hikes next week, and over coming months feel their way to a policy rate high enough to push down on inflation, but not so high as to crash the economy. Once they get rates to that point, in an approach one U.S. central banker has dubbed "raise and hold," they intend to stand pat as the higher borrowing costs work their way through the economy to cool the labor market and ease price pressures. After a report on Friday showing job growth did not slow as much as expected last month, futures contracts tied to U.S. short-term rates reflected bets the Fed would continue to raise rates next year, ultimately topping out just under or just over 5% by May. But just a few months later, based on those same futures contracts, the central bank is seen turning around and cutting rates, bringing them back down by the end of 2023 to where they are expected to end this year, in the 4.25%-4.50% range. The view that rates will follow a hump-shaped path over the coming year is one that traders have stuck to, more or less, since the Fed put its policy tightening into high gear over the summer to fight price pressures at levels not seen in 40 years. It syncs with financial market measures like the inverted Treasury yield curve flashing warning lights about a coming recession. Many economists, too, have forecast a rise in the unemployment rate of a percentage point or more over the coming year from the current 3.7%, consistent with a recession, including some at the Fed itself. The Fed's typical response to a weakening economy is to cut rates. But with inflation by the Fed's preferred measure running at three times its 2% target, economists say all bets are off - including those made by futures traders. "I think those expectations are premature," said Jefferies economist Aneta Markowska. "I don't think the Fed will be comfortable cutting rates until unemployment gets close to 5%, or inflation declines south of 3%. Those conditions are unlikely to be met until 2024."
Fed chief Powell spells it out: workers are its chief target - The chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has made his most explicit statement to date on the aim of interest rate tightening. It is to increase the supply of labour by creating unemployment to push down the wage demands that have erupted in the face of the highest inflation in 40 years. In a speech delivered at the Brookings Institution yesterday, entitled Inflation and the Labor Market, he made it clear that the Fed regards even the nominal wage rises of workers over the recent period—all of which fall below the inflation rate—as too high. This is because they have “been growing at a pace well above what would be consistent with 2 percent inflation over time.” Emphasising the need for a return to a “balance” between the supply of labour and demand, Powell said that a “significant and persistent labour supply shortfall opened up during the pandemic—a shortfall that appears unlikely to fully close anytime soon.” The main takeaway from the speech, so far as the financial markets were concerned, was the indication by Powell, tacked on to the end of his remarks, that the Fed could ease back on the size of its interest rate hikes as early as the next meeting of its policy-making body in two weeks’ time. He said because interest rate increases affected the economy with lags, the full effects of the rapid tightening had so far yet to be felt. “Thus, it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down. The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.” Wall Street celebrated at the prospect of cheaper money. The Dow rose by 700 points, the S&P 500 jumped 3.1 percent and the interest-rate sensitive NASDAQ finished up by 4.4 percent. Powell’s remarks appear to be a concession to elements within the Federal Open Market Committee who want to see a slowing in the pace of rate rises. According to the minutes of the November meeting, which increased rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row, there was considerable support for an easing while the effects of one of the most aggressive tightening cycles in decades were assessed. “A slower pace in these circumstances would better allow the committee to assess progress toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability,” the minutes said. But having made a concession on one side, Powell came down firmly on the other saying the timing of any moderation was less significant that the questions of how much further the Fed would need to go. Powell is very much an adherent of former Fed chair Paul Volcker who imposed record interest rates in the early 1980s—devastating the US economy in what was an onslaught against the working class. “It is likely that restoring price stability will require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time. History cautions strongly against premature loosening of policy. We will stay the course until the job is done,” he concluded. The “job” has got nothing to do with bringing down prices per se. It is directed at slowing economic growth and increasing the supply of labour by creating unemployment, as Powell’s comments on labour supply during his speech made clear.
Fed could raise interest rates to higher-than-expected peak after latest jobs report—and looks willing to cause a recession to beat inflation - Federal Reserve officials have enough worrisome inflation data to consider raising interest rates to a higher peak than investors expect and potentially follow the half-point hike they’ve signaled this month with the same again in February. Monthly wages rose at the strongest pace since January and US employment surged more than forecast last month, a report showed Friday. That will concern Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who this week cautioned that slacker job-market conditions and less-lofty earnings growth were needed to cool an inflation rate near a 40-year high. Powell and his colleagues, now in their pre-meeting blackout, have strongly suggested they would downshift to a half-point move at their Dec. 13-14 gathering, after four straight 75 basis-point increases. He’s also said they likely will need higher rates than they thought in September, when the median forecast saw them at 4.6% next year from a current target range of 3.75% to 4%. “Powell has suggested that we’re not in a wage-growth spiral yet, but that risk is still there,” said Rhea Thomas, senior economist at Wilmington Trust Co. “This keeps in play this idea that they may have to raise the peak rate and potentially keep it in place for longer.” Bets on a downshift to a half-point hike this month were intact after the employment report and investors saw the likelihood of the same again at the Fed’s Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting as roughly balanced. Pricing in futures markets shows rates peaking around 4.9% next year. Officials will update their quarterly forecasts at the December meeting and could lift their median projection for the rate peak next year to 5% or above. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has called for a minimum 5.25% peak and some analysts, including Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG LLP, see rates as high as 5.5%, with the Fed willing to cause a recession if necessary to restore price stability.
Larry Summers predicts Fed will need to raise interest rates more than market anticipates - Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said the Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates more than the market anticipates as prices remain high but grew at slower rates in October. Summers told Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” with David Westin that the economy has a “long way to go” before inflation is under control. “My sense is that inflation is going to be a little more sustained than what people are looking for,” he said. The Fed has raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points four times in a row in successive meetings, but Chairman Jerome Powell said it will likely raise rates by a smaller amount at its meeting later this month. Still, he said the Fed needs “substantially more evidence to get comfort” that inflation is declining. Consumer prices rose at a slightly slower pace in October than expected despite Americans increasing their spending. Powell has said the Fed will continue to raise interest rates as much as necessary to get inflation under control. Officials are aiming for inflation to get back to a 2 percent annual rate. The stock market surged after Powell’s comments that the interest rate hikes will slow down.
The Jobs Report in Light of what Powell Said: The Fed Cannot Create Supply of Labor, But it Can Slow the Demand for Labor --- by Wolf Richter - The data across the board, supported by countless industry reports, have all told a similar story: There is more demand for labor than there is supply of labor.The layoffs in the tech and social media bubble are quickly getting absorbed by other companies, including in other industries, while the number of layoffs and discharges across all industries are near historic lows, and applications for unemployment insurance remain near historic lows. Wages have continued to surge; and for job hoppers, wages have exploded as desperate companies are willing to pay to fill slots, amid a gigantic pile of job openings and massive job hopping as workers are arbitraging the tighter labor market for their benefit.And today, we got more of the same with the jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The labor force – people who either have jobs or are actively looking for jobs – is still the key problem: It dipped further and remains far below pre-pandemic trend. This is the supply of labor.Powell, in his speech two days ago, focused on the labor force. He pointed out that the Fed cannot increase the supply of labor, and the Fed cannot increase the labor force; but the Fed can tamp down on the demand for labor, to bring supply and demand somewhat in line in order to tamp down on the inflationary pressures that occur when companies are passing on their surging labor costs by increasing prices. This is particularly an issue with services where raging inflation has now taken hold. And in many services, labor costs are a huge factor.And this is now happening everywhere: Companies that provide services are passing on their surging labor costs by jacking up their prices.The Fed is now trying to tamp down on this demand for labor – in addition to tamping down on the demand for goods, services, and investments – with the fastest rate hikes in four decades and with the fastest QT ever.But it’s not working yet. Consumer demand is not landing, and the labor market isn’t landing either. And inflationary pressures persist, particularly in “core services” where labor costs are a huge factor.
The 'Armageddon scenario' of Fed rate at 6.5% would be more benign than feared – JPM -- The market expects Federal Reserve to slow the rate hike to 50 basis points after the next FOMC meeting next week, but the consensus is also that the central bank will continue to raise the Fed Funds rate to around 5%. After that, investors are anticipating a pause of varying lengths. However, the Fed's policy will remain dependent on inflation, which remains near multi-decade highs, despite a recent deceleration. Indeed, inflation is subject to other influences than just policy rates, with rising energy prices and supply chain issues, and there is no guarantee that the rapid Fed rate hike so far this year will have the expected impact. As a result, it is possible that the Fed will decide that a key rate of 5% is ultimately insufficient to bring inflation back to its target. This is the scenario that JPMorgan strategists, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, envisioned in a recent note, imagining that the Fed finally pushes the Fed Funds rate up to 6.5% in the second half of 2023, for which the bank assigns a probability of 28%, while the market currently assumes only 10% for this outcome, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Barometer. JPMorgan noted that its discussions with clients show that this is widely perceived as the Armageddon scenario. "After all the last time the Fed funds rate was at 6.5% was in 2000 and that level of policy rates was followed by very heavy losses for risk markets at the time," they noted. However, the bank believes that the market impact of such a scenario would be less significant than one might think. "In our opinion while there is little doubt that [Fed rates at 6.5%] would be negative for most asset classes including equities, bonds and credit, the eventual downside is likely to be more limited that an Armageddon would suggest," the analysts wrote. Specifically, they estimate that S&P 500 would be likely to fall by 10% and 10-year Treasury yields could add 50 basis points. While this is nothing to cheer about, it is far less worrisome than most of the clients the bank has spoken with think, who on average fear a dip in the S&P 500 below 3,000 and a surge in 10-year yields above 5%. "In a similar fashion another 150bp increase in the peak Fed pricing from here to 6.5% might prove more benign than feared for equities overall, even if expectations of economic hard landing in this risk scenario induce further underperformance of cyclical sectors," the bank wrote. "Demand for both bonds and equities has already weakened by so much already in 2022," Panigirtzoglou explained, which "making it a lot less likely that a similarly big decline in demand could take place in 2023." Note that the 6.5% rate scenario is one of four that JPMorgan economists have set for next year. The other scenarios call for the Fed to cut rates starting in mid-2023, for rates to peak near 5% amid a mild recession, or for the central bank to tame inflation without causing severe economic damage.
How Big Are the Fed’s Losses and Where Can We Go See Them? - by Wolf Richter -A collapse-chart has been making the rounds in the social media, financial blogs, and the like. It’s being handed around without context, as if self-explanatory, sort of like, look, the world is collapsing. It’s from the St. Louis Fed’s data depository. The title of the chart says, among other things, ominously, “Liabilities: Remittances Due to the U.S. Treasury.” Whatever this is, it’s violating the WOLF STREET dictum, “Nothing Goes to Heck in a Straight Line.” But beyond the funny aspects of the chart, there is something happening on the Fed’s balance sheet that is taking on momentum and heft: How much money the Fed is losing, where this lost money shows up, and how it derails a taxpayer gravy-train. The chart reflects that in a bizarre manner — it does a switcheroo — that we’ll get to in a moment. A liability is money that the Fed owes some other entity – in this case, money that the Fed owes the US Treasury Department. But this particular liability account, “Earnings remittances due to the U.S. Treasury,” is kind of a funny creature. It has a negative balance of -$13.2 billion as of the Fed’s weekly balance sheet released yesterday. On a balance sheet measured in trillions, this is pretty small. But it’s going to get a lot funkier. The Fed’s revenues come from interest and fees. The biggest source is the interest it earns on its $8.17 trillion portfolio of Treasury securities and MBS, which earned the Fed $122.4 billion in interest in 2021. The Fed also charges fees for various services it provides for the banking system. All combined, in 2021, the Fed had $123.1 billion in revenues. The Fed’s expenses come from operating costs and from the interest it pays. The operating expenses of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks amounted to $5.3 billion last year. It also paid interest on reserves and on reverse repos. Last year, with the interest rate it paid on reserves at only 0.15%, the Fed paid $5.3 billion in interest on reserves and it paid $414 million in interest on overnight reverse repos (RRPs). And there were some other expenses. Total expenses amounted to $15.5 billion. The Fed also paid dividends of $585 million to the shareholders of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks. The shareholders of the 12 FRBs are the financial institutions in their districts. The Fed has to remit its net income to the US Treasury Department. Its net income (revenues minus expenses minus dividends) amounted to $107.8 billion. The Fed has to remit to the US Treasury Department nearly all of its income and any capital in excess of its statutory capital limit, set by Congress. It announces these figures every January, and I dutifully covered it every January, including in January 2022. Over the past 21 years, the Fed remitted $1.28 trillion to the Treasury Department! Since the start of QE in 2009, it has remitted $1.07 trillion. In this respect, money-printing was a gravy train for the taxpayer. But this whole thing is going to end because the Fed will have a net loss this year, and for years to come.
Goolsbee to head Chicago Fed - Austan Goolsbee, former top economic advisor to President Barack Obama, is slated to be the next president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Goolsbee is currently a professor of economics at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, and previously served as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 2010 to 2011. Goolsbee will have a significant role in economic policy — he will sit next year on the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee, which sets the Fed's benchmark interest rate. It's a critical time for those decision makers, who are weighing how to battle high inflation with the pain that accompanies economic tightening.
Q3 GDP Growth Revised Up to 2.9% Annual Rate - From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary), Third Quarter 2022: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2022, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent.The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.6 percent. The second estimate primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased more than previously estimated...Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 0.3 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.8 percent in the second quarter (revised). The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.6 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.7 percent (revised) in the second quarter. Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 1.4% to 1.7%. Residential investment was revised down from -26.4% to -26.8%.
“Jobs Are Up! Wages Are Up! So Why Am I as an Economist so Gloomy?” - In any other time, the jobs news that came down on Dec. 2, 2022, would be reason for cheer. The U.S. added 263,000 nonfarm jobs in November, leaving the unemployment rate at a low 3.7%. Moreover, wages are up – with average hourly pay jumping 5.1% compared with a year earlier. So why am I not celebrating? Oh, yes: inflation. The rosy employment figures come despite repeated efforts by the Federal Reserve to tame the job market and the wider economy in general in its fight against the worst inflation in decades. The Fed has now increased the base interest rate six times in 2022, going from a historic low of about zero to a range of 3.75% to 4% today. Another hike is expected on Dec. 13. Yet inflation remains stubbornly high, and currently sits at an annual rate of 7.7%. The economic rationale behind hiking rates is that it increases the cost of doing business for companies. This in turn acts as brake on the economy, which should cool inflation. But that doesn’t appear to be happening. A closer dive into November’s jobs report reveals why.It shows that the labor force participation rate – how many working-age Americans have a job or are seeking one – is stuck at just over 62.1%. As the report notes, that figure is “little changed” in November and has shown “little net change since early this year.” In fact, it is down 1.3 percentage points from pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels. This suggests that the heating up of the labor market is being driven by supply-side issues. That is, there aren’t enough people to fill the jobs being advertised. Companies still want to hire – as the above-expected job gains indicate But with fewer people actively looking for work in the U.S., companies are having to go the extra yard to be attractive to job seekers. And that means offering higher wages. And higher wages – they were up 5.1% in November from a year earlier – contribute to spiraling inflation. This puts the Fed in a very difficult position. Simply put, there is not an awful lot it can do about supply-side issues in the labor market. The main monetary tool it has to affect jobs is rate hikes, which make it more costly to do business, which should have an impact on hiring. But that only affects the demand side – that is, employers and recruitment policies.So where does this leave the possibility of further rate hikes? Viewing this as an economist, it suggests that the Fed might be eyeing a base rate jump of more than 75 basis points on Dec. 13, rather than a softening of its policies as Chair Jerome Powell had suggested as recently as Nov. 30. Yes, this still would not ease the labor supply problem that is encouraging wage growth, but it might serve to cool the wider economy nonetheless.The problem is, this would increase the chances of also pushing the U.S. economy into a recession – and it could be a pretty nasty recession. So, yes, employment is robust. But the money being earned is eroded by soaring inflation. Meanwhile, the safety net of savings that families might need is getting smaller.In short, people are not prepared for the recession that might be lurking around the corner. And this is why I am gloomy.
Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of December 4th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is 6.9% below the same week in 2019 (93.1% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently - but still below pre-pandemic levels. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through December 1st. Movie ticket sales were at $115 million last week, down about 57% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). This data is through Nov 26th. The occupancy rate was down 0.5% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue) and close to 2019 levels. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022. As of November 25th, gasoline supplied was down 9.6% compared to the same week in 2019. Recently gasoline supplied has been running below 2019 and 2021 levels - and sometimes below 2020.
McConnell floats short-term spending bill amid ‘significant impasse’ Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Tuesday said a stopgap funding deal that would fund the government until January might be necessary as talks on a long-term spending package drag on. “We’re at a pretty significant impasse,” McConnell told reporters on Tuesday. “Time is ticking. We have not been able to agree on a top line yet, and I think it’s becoming increasingly likely that we might need to do a short-term CR into early next year,” McConnell continued, using the shorthand for continuing resolution. “We are running out of time, and that might be the only option left that we could agree to pursue,” McConnell said. The comments came a day after House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) called on McConnell and Republicans to avoid striking a deal on an omnibus spending package during the lame-duck session and to wait until House Republicans retake the majority in January. McCarthy’s remarks also suggest that leaders should expect few House GOP members to jump on board to support an omnibus spending bill this month. McConnell added that the immediate priority should be passing the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). A final NDAA bill was expected to be rolled out in recent days, but that release has been delayed as lawmakers haggle over remaining sticking points. “We’re running out of time, and we don’t have agreements to do virtually anything,” McConnell said about the stalled talks on the omnibus and NDAA. “I’m dealing with the practical situation. … We’re running out of time. There’s only so much you can do with the time that’s left.” Government funding is set to expire on Dec. 16. Negotiators have kicked around the idea of passing a one-week continuing resolution until Dec. 23 to give them more time to get an omnibus package and the NDAA wrapped up before the holidays.
Lawmakers labor to break impasses stalling massive spending bill - Top lawmakers are still grasping for the deal they need to tee up a sprawling year-end spending package as potential pitfalls for the bill pile up, nearly guaranteeing that Congress will be working until Christmas or later to fund the government. Democrats and Republicans leading the negotiations are still tens of billions of dollars apart on a total amount for domestic programs, preventing lawmakers from cementing an agreement on the overall funding levels necessary to smooth out the finer points. Without a deal, congressional leaders have warned that federal agencies could be saddled with stagnant budgets for the better part of 2023, an outcome that Pentagon leaders have said would be devastating for military readiness and U.S. assistance to Ukraine. To that end, the Biden administration sent lawmakers a list of funding exceptions on Monday night that will be needed to lessen the pain of stagnant budgets if a deal falls through and Congress passes a so-called continuing resolution instead. Federal cash expires on Dec. 16, meaning lawmakers will almost certainly need to pass a stopgap spending patch that buys them an extra week or more to finalize any funding package for the current fiscal year. The bill could top $1.7 trillion, in line with President Joe Biden’s budget request, and include a swath of other policy provisions — such as a bipartisan update to presidential certification law crafted in response to the Capitol riot — as members look to pack in their priorities before the next Congress starts. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell threatened Tuesday that he’s open to extending such a temporary fix into next year, when the GOP takes control of the House. “Time is ticking. … I think it’s becoming increasingly likely that we may need to do a short-term [continuing resolution] into early next year. We are running out of time and that may be the only option left we can agree to pursue,” the Kentucky Republican said. Asked Tuesday about McConnell’s comments, incoming Democratic leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) called it a “preliminary, premature observation.” At the moment, Democrats are asking for about $26 billion more in domestic funding than GOP lawmakers are willing to give. Republicans have deemed that money unnecessary, arguing that Democrats largely achieved their domestic funding goals through party-line climate, tax, health and Covid aid bills. The increasingly expensive veterans health funding matter has proven a major sticking point for both sides. Democrats have argued that it should be moved out of domestic spending and into its own separate category, so that it doesn’t consume other priorities. But Republicans are refusing to allow that maneuver, a Senate GOP aide said on Tuesday, addressing the matter candidly on condition of anonymity. As a result, Democrats are seeking $26 billion to cover a number of other domestic priorities, money that Republicans aren’t willing to provide, the aide said. Republicans do not want the total package to exceed Biden’s $1.7 trillion budget request for the current fiscal year. When asked about the spat on Tuesday afternoon, House Appropriations Chair Rosa DeLauro said, “The Republicans don’t believe that our commitment to our veterans needs to be honored.” The Senate Republican aide argued that’s not a fair way to categorize the stalemate. Democrats are seeking a 12 percent increase to the appropriations bill that funds the IRS, for example. The aide said that’s a non-starter, given the $80 billion infusion that the IRS received from Democrats’ party-line tax, climate and health care package earlier this year. Democrats and Republicans have largely settled on an $858 billion total for overall defense funding, in line with a bipartisan compromise on annual defense policy legislation. The current spending impasse is significant enough to see a spillover effect in talks on a must-pass defense policy bill, with McConnell throwing cold water on Democratic interest in adding energy permitting or marijuana banking provisions to that measure. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer was noncommittal when asked if the two parties could reach an agreement on the spending package by next week: “We certainly hope so,” he said in a brief interview, “but I don’t know.”
Democrats in U.S. Congress aim to pressure Republicans with go-it-alone funding bill (Reuters) - Democrats in the U.S. Congress plan to unveil a bill to fund the government through the end of the current fiscal year in a bid to pressure Republicans ahead of a Dec. 16 funding deadline, a top Senate Democrat said on Thursday. Republicans, who will take the majority in the House of Representatives next year and whose votes would be needed this month in the Senate to pass the $1.5 trillion-plus measure, voiced immediate objections as the bill contains increased spending for domestic programs that conservatives oppose. Congress has until Dec. 16 to either pass an "omnibus" bill funding the government through Sept. 30, 2023, or a shorter "continuing resolution" to avoid a partial government shutdown. Some conservative Republicans have urged a short-term bill, to delay talks on a full-year bill into January when they will have a stronger negotiating position. Democratic Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Patrick Leahy on Thursday said he considered the proposal "fair and bipartisan." It would fund the Defense Department at the record $858 billion contained in the National Defense Authorization Act bill now making its way through Congress, he said, but would also include increases to non-defense domestic programs that conservative Republicans oppose. Democrats would need the support of 10 Republicans to pass the measure in the 50-50 Senate. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell drew a hard line in opposition. "Passing a defense authorization bill and appropriating the money our military needs are not right-wing demands that Democrats get unrelated goodies for going along with," McConnell said in a speech shortly after Leahy's. "We won't allow (Democrats) to now hijack the government funding process ... and take our troops hostage for even more spending."
Democrats try to salvage Manchin’s deal on energy permitting reform - The push by Sen. Joe Manchin III to overhaul the nation’s permitting process for infrastructure projects could get some last-ditch help from Democratic leaders, who are trying to attach the permitting bill to the annual defense policy measure, according to two people familiar with the matter. With the blessing of Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has been in talks with House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith (D-Wash.) about attaching a version of Manchin’s permitting bill to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), according to the two individuals, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.New text of the defense bill that includes the permitting bill could be released Monday before the House Rules Committee considers the measure, the people said, although they cautioned that the plans were in flux and subject to change.Spokespeople for Manchin (D-W.Va.), Pelosi and Schumer did not immediately respond to requests for comment.The effort to salvage Manchin’s permitting crusade is the latest attempt by Democrats to honor a deal that secured his vote for the Inflation Reduction Act, a sweeping climate, energy and health-care law that President Biden signed in August. Manchin insisted on a follow-up permitting bill as part of the deal, part of his long quest to speed up America’s permitting process for energy infrastructure, including the contested Mountain Valley Pipeline, which would transport natural gas about 300 miles from his home state of West Virginia to Virginia.
Top Dems weigh adding permitting reform to defense bill - Democratic leaders are trying to slip controversial permitting provisions developed by Sen. Joe Manchin into the latest version of the fiscal 2023 defense authorization bill, according to three people familiar with the matter. The sources, who were granted anonymity to speak candidly about the matter, said lawmakers were maneuvering over the weekend to get the provisions included in the final version of the annual National Defense Authorization Act. It would be a last-second win for Manchin, who was promised a vote on his permitting overhaul in exchange for his support for the Inflation Reduction Act in August. The defense legislation is a must-pass bill and one of the last possible legislative vehicles for Democrats to get permitting reform done before they lose control of the House in January. “This is a politically astute move by Democrats to force Republicans to fight the mere mention of reform at the cost of an NDAA, which they have championed for years,” said Alex Herrgott, a former Republican staffer who started the Permitting Institute. Spokespeople for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Manchin did not respond to requests for comment. The House Rules Committee is set to meet this afternoon to prepare the NDAA for a vote, and the latest iteration could reach the floor in the coming days. Negotiators are scrambling to get the military authorization bill to the president’s desk before the end of the year. Manchin has for weeks been pushing to tack permitting onto the defense bill. But NDAA negotiators have resisted including the controversial provisions to ensure quick passage for the defense funding bill. House Armed Services leader Adam Smith (D-Wash.) has nonetheless acknowledged that the decision would come down to Democratic leadership (E&E Daily, Nov. 16). Timeline uncertain Manchin sparked the political fight over permitting this summer, when he floated a draft bill that would have approved his cherished Mountain Valley pipeline and created a White House priority list of projects.. The permitting provisions lawmakers want to add to the NDAA are expected to build on the Manchin draft.
Lawmakers await revamped permitting bill - Lawmakers are bracing for a revamped version of Sen. Joe Manchin’s permitting overhaul while congressional leaders continue to negotiate a deal with the West Virginia Democrat. Manchin confirmed Monday that he has been working on changes to the draft permitting reform legislation he first circulated in September. Democratic leaders are hoping to attach the new language to the fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act to honor a deal they struck with Manchin in August in exchange for his vote on the Inflation Reduction Act. “There’s been a lot of input from both sides,” Manchin told reporters, adding that there have been “some adjustments” to the draft legislation. “It’s pretty much up in the air. We’ll see what happens.” A deal to overhaul the nation’s permitting laws could give Manchin a win on Mountain Valley pipeline, a long-sought project for West Virginia lawmakers, but it threatens to enrage progressives and derail President Joe Biden’s environmental justice pledges. The White House on Monday threw its support behind the effort. Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that Biden was in favor of tacking Manchin’s permitting reform legislation onto the NDAA, honoring the agreement that got the administration’s marquee legislative achievement across the finish line. It’s not clear exactly how Manchin’s language might change from the September draft. In addition to authorizing Mountain Valley — a politically contentious project — Manchin’s proposal is expected to cut down permitting requirements for energy projects across the board. Senate Armed Services Chair Jack Reed (D-R.I.) said it would be up to leadership to determine the “last-minute items that pop up every year.” Senate Environment and Public Works Chair Tom Carper (D-Del.) told reporters Monday, “Our Republican colleagues would like to include some provisions in permitting reform that I’ve not been comfortable at all in accepting, and there’s been an ongoing discussion. It’s now above my pay grade, so we’ll see where a conversation, negotiation between the administration, our leader’s office, the Manchin office, where it leads.” It’s not clear at this point whether Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) would be able to rally the votes for a defense bill that includes permitting reform. The situation has already set off a firestorm among congressional progressives and environmental justice advocates after Democratic leaders began maneuvering over the weekend to include permitting in the NDAA. Final text of the defense bill is expected out as soon as Tuesday. Manchin’s bill has also engendered fierce opposition from Virginia lawmakers who oppose Mountain Valley, which would carry natural gas between West Virginia and the Old Dominion (E&E Daily, Sept. 16). “I was OK with the first 85 pages, but I’m completely opposed to taking the Mountain Valley pipeline outside of normal permitting rules and just greenlighting it and eliminating all the judicial review processes,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said Monday of Manchin’s original draft permitting proposal.
Pelosi pitches Dems on permitting as progressives rage - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi pitched Democrats on Sen. Joe Manchin’s permitting overhaul during a caucus meeting Tuesday morning, according to lawmakers who were in the room. It’s a sign of leadership’s continued insistence on including the issue in the annual National Defense Authorization Act, as negotiators wade through riders to the must-pass bill they hope to vote on this week. The deal between Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, and party leadership to pass the permitting bill by the end of the year has enraged progressives, who oppose expediting environmental reviews for fossil fuel projects. “[Pelosi] acknowledged that this was a contentious issue, a point of disagreement with some of us, and talked about the need for energy transmission in order to quickly realize all the investments in the Inflation Reduction Act,” Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) told reporters this morning. “Look, nobody wants to see more clean energy than me — I’m a climate hawk — but I also understand there are ways to get that transmission without throwing the [environmental justice] community under the bus,” said Huffman. Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) agreed to pass the permitting language, which includes an authorization of the contentious Mountain Valley pipeline, in exchange for Manchin’s vote on the Inflation Reduction Act in August. Progressives got it dropped from a stopgap spending measure in September, and Manchin has said that he tweaked the language since he unveiled a draft bill earlier this fall. House progressives are now threatening to vote against the rule setting up debate on the floor, which could sink the entire defense bill. Environmental justice advocacy groups are embarking on a last-minute lobbying campaign to kill it. They held a protest outside the Cannon House Office Building on Tuesday morning and are planning another event with progressive lawmakers to oppose the bill in the afternoon. The effort is also facing opposition from Republicans, who don’t want non-defense riders tacked onto the NDAA. Many in the GOP also believe Manchin’s proposal does not go far enough to cut down environmental permitting for energy projects.
Progressives push back on permitting in defense bill | The Hill --At least two progressive Democrats on Monday said they would vote against a defense spending bill if it contains elements of Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) permitting reform push.Reps. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) tweeted that they would vote against the annual bill, known as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), if it contained what they described as “giveaways to the fossil fuel industry.“We can advance permitting for clean energy without taking a hatchet to environmental protections for frontline communities. This is not what @RepMcEachin would have wanted,” Grijalva said, invoking the late Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Va.).“I will vote against the NDAA rule if we continue with this fossil fuel giveaway,” he added. Meanwhile, Khanna expressed optimism that the legislation could be stopped.“I will vote against the rule for NDAA consideration if it includes giveaways to the fossil fuel industry. If even 10 House progressives vote against it, it likely can’t pass,” Khanna tweeted. A spokesperson confirmed that the lawmaker was referring to permitting reform in his tweet.
- Last year, Grijalva voted for the NDAA while Khanna voted against it.
- Permitting reform refers to changes to the energy approval process. Manchin has been pushing for changes that would be expected to speed up approvals for both fossil and renewable energy infrastructure.
Progressives ready to block defense bill over permitting - A top House Democrat will vote to block consideration of a must-pass defense spending bill if it includes permitting language that could undermine environmental protections. The warning shot from Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), chair of the House Natural Resources Committee, comes as congressional Democratic leaders are seriously weighing inclusion of a permitting provision in the fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act. His threat also illustrates the intensity of the continued left-wing opposition to the provision, which party leaders first sought to tack onto a stopgap spending bill in September at the behest of Grijalva’s counterpart, Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). “It’s gotten to the point where it has become craven, where ‘we’re just going to get it done regardless,’” Grijalva told E&E News on Monday of leadership’s insistence on finding a home for Manchin’s overhaul effort. “I understand, and I’ve tried to give to senators the reassurance that the transmission and grid issues — the promotion of renewable and alternative energies — have to be dealt with, but not like this,” he continued. “Taking a hatchet to [the National Environmental Policy Act] is not the way to go.” Grijalva’s plan would be to vote against the “rule” for the bill. That’s a resolution that governs parameters for floor debate. Members of the majority rarely oppose rules for bills backed by party leaders. And if enough Democrats band together to oppose the rule for the NDAA, it could thwart the underlying bill. Grijalva said he wasn’t launching a coordinated effort to sink the rule at this time, but the Arizona Democrat has enormous influence among House progressives and environmentalists, and he led the opposition to the permitting language earlier this year. His plans could compel others to follow suit. Leaders of the Congressional Progressive Caucus are already surveying their members to see if there’s an appetite to vote against the NDAA rule in case permitting reform text is included, a House Democratic aide confirmed to E&E News. At least one progressive House Democrat, Rep. Ro Khanna of California, said Monday he planned to vote against the rule “if it includes giveaways to the fossil fuel industry.” “We all have a stake in tackling the climate crisis & it’s critical we listen to communities hit hardest,” Khanna said on Twitter, adding, “If even 10 House progressives vote against [the rule], it likely can’t pass.” No decisions have been made yet about including permitting language in the NDAA, which could shorten timelines for National Environmental Policy Act reviews, limit the ability for citizens to launch judicial challenges for proposed energy projects and approve the controversial Mountain Valley pipeline — a Manchin priority. But as NDAA negotiations continue, House Democratic chiefs of staff were told Monday during their weekly meeting that their party leadership is “discussing permitting in the context of NDAA,” according to one chief on the call granted anonymity to share details of a private briefing.
Doubts emerge about NDAA as permitting vehicle - Progressive opposition to including Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) permitting reform deal in a defense spending bill is throwing cold water on the energy policies’ inclusion.
- In recent days, several House Democrats have said that they would not only oppose the defense bill itself if Manchin’s provisions are put in; they will also oppose the rule that allows the bill that comes to the floor.
- Since Republicans almost never vote for rules put forward by Democrats even if they support the underlying bill, the maneuver may only require a few defectors to succeed.
House Armed Services Chairman Adam Smith (D-Wash.) told The Hill on Tuesday that he doesn’t think the policies, which are aimed at speeding up the approval process for energy projects, have the votes to succeed. “It does not appear to me that there’s the votes to sustain that,” Smith told The Hill. “If it was up to me at this point it would not be in, but it’s not up to me, but it seems to me like there’s not the support for it.” ut, he said it’s up to leadership to decide whether to include them and that a final decision hadn’t yet been made.
- Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) indicated she believes the progressive effort would be enough to kill the permitting reform’s chances in the NDAA.
- “Typically Republicans don’t vote for the rule, some of them might, but I can’t imagine there would be enough to counter the number of progressives that have already told me they’re voting against the rule,” she said. She added the caucus was still taking stock of how large the opposition to the rule could be.
Manchin's last-gasp permitting effort fails - Congressional Democratic leaders fell short in a last-ditch effort to honor a promise to pass Sen. Joe Manchin’s permitting overhaul proposal. The final text of the fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act released Tuesday night did not include language that would have shortened timelines for National Environmental Policy Act reviews and limited citizen judicial challenges for proposed energy projects. It’s a blow for Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat and chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. His proposed reform efforts would have included approval for the Mountain Valley pipeline, a natural gas project in his state. “Our energy infrastructure is under attack and America’s energy security has never been more threatened,” Manchin said in a statement Tuesday night. “Failing to pass bipartisan energy permitting reform that both Republicans and Democrats have called for will have long term consequences for our energy independence. “The American people will pay the steepest price for Washington once again failing to put common sense policy ahead of toxic tribal politics,” he continued. “This is why the American people hate politics in Washington.” Manchin’s failure is a victory for an unlikely coalition of progressives and conservatives, who again came together to fight the permitting plan after successfully blocking it from being attached to the stopgap government spending measure back in September. “Thanks to the hard-fought persistence and vocal opposition of environmental justice communities all across the country, the Dirty Deal has finally been laid to rest,” House Natural Resources Chair Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), who led the opposition both times, said in a statement. “House Democrats can now close out the year having made historic progress on climate change without this ugly asterisk.” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), with President Joe Biden’s support, were working furiously behind the scenes this week to make good on their commitment to Manchin that they’d find the votes for his proposal — a trade for his support for the Inflation Reduction Act. Pelosi was pitching her members hard on the plan in a closed-door caucus meeting Tuesday morning, according to lawmakers and aides inside the room, extolling the advantages of legislation that would speed up deployment of new transmission lines. “Schumer makes the argument, with which I agree, that the $369 billion that we put in the [Inflation Reduction Act] for renewables, new innovation, new technology — in order to get that done quickly … having the permitting process run smoothly and not dragging out over a long period of time is very helpful,” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told reporters at his weekly briefing Tuesday afternoon. But Hoyer also acknowledged the language under consideration for inclusion in the NDAA was “very controversial,” and made clear Schumer and Pelosi’s main motivation was in deference to Manchin. “We passed the IRA, the inflation reduction bill — the only reason we passed it is because Joe Manchin decided to vote for it,” said Hoyer. “I talked to Joe Manchin … at the Kennedy Center on Sunday night, and he was still hoping it would move forward.”
An end to the Manchin show? - POLITICO - - Tuesday night was a one-two punch to Joe Manchin, all but spelling out the end to the West Virginia senator's permitting proposal and outsized influence in the Senate.The final House draft of the National Defense Authorization Act came out Tuesday night — without the conservative Democrat’s permitting overhaul. That omission in the must-pass defense bill was followed by the news that Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock had won Georgia’s runoff, which is certainly good news for his party but heralds a diminished position for Manchin come 2023.The must-pass defense bill was likely Manchin’s best shot at passing his proposal to fast-track energy and infrastructure projects through federal environmental reviews. Conservatives like Manchin have long complained that the permitting pipeline is clogged by slow-walking bureaucrats and activist opposition to fossil fuels. Democratic leadership had promised to advance a version of Manchin’s permitting wish list in exchange for his voting “yea” for the Inflation Reduction Act earlier this year. Now progressives, who’d seen the bill as a free pass to carbon-intensive projects, are celebrating the NDAA omission as a death knell for permitting during this Congress. “House Democrats can now close out the year having made historic progress on climate change without this ugly asterisk,” said House Natural Resources Chair Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), a prominent opponent of Manchin’s permitting push, in a statement. The proposal didn’t go down just because of progressive option, though. An unexpected counteroffensive against the reforms was launched by the unlikely coalition of progressives and conservatives — some of whom had complained the reforms didn’t go far enough. All is not lost for the Appalachian Democrat. Manchin released the full text of his permitting bill, the "Building American Energy Security Act of 2022," with a push for colleagues to put it back in the NDAA through an amendment. But that shaky ground is a hell of a way to close out a congressional session in which Manchin enjoyed an outsized prominence. As the NDAA news was filtering through Twitter, Manchin’s position of power in the Senate took another substantial hit in the South due to Warnock’s ability to fend off former NFL running back and Republican challenger Herschel Walker in the Georgia runoff. It’s now official: The Democrats will have a 51-49 majority come January, diminishing the role Manchin has played since 2021 as a critical Democratic swing vote in the evenly split Senate. The Appalachian lawmaker wielded that position to give fossil fuel industries an easier time in the administration’s climate policies — to the fury of many Democrats, progressives and climate activists.
House passes annual defense funding bill - The House on Thursday passed the annual defense authorization bill, sending the mammoth, $847 billion measure to the Senate for consideration ahead of the year-end deadline. The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) passed in a bipartisan 350-80 vote. It was approved under suspension of the rules, an expedited process to pass legislation in the House that requires a two-thirds majority. “I can’t go through every single item that is in this bill, but I can tell you that just about every member of this House has something in this bill that is important for policy, important in their district,” House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith (D-Wash.) said ahead of the vote. “This is important policy that makes a huge difference for the people in this body and the people in this country, and I’ve urged us to support it.” The NDAA, legislation seen as a must-pass for Congress annually, includes an $817 billion top line for the Defense Department and about $30 billion to fund nuclear activities in the Department of Energy. The bill lays out the blueprint for how the billions of dollars will be allocated at the Pentagon, including a 4.6 percent pay raise for both service members and the agency’s civilian workforce, new weapons programs and equipment upgrades, and new programs and personnel policies. “We have a nearly 4,000-page bill that exercises the authorizing and oversight authority of the United States Congress on behalf of the American people. We did it very well, we accomplished a lot in this bill. I think every member of this body can vote for it and feel really good about that,” Smith said. House leaders decided to use the fast-track process after a last-minute push from the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) Wednesday night to set an accompanying vote on a bill bolstering the 1965 Voting Rights Act, which had previously passed through the House but stalled in the Senate. The chamber was initially scheduled to pass the defense bill on Wednesday but punted action to Thursday because of the CBC holdup. The final bill came together after months of negotiations between lawmakers of both parties and chambers, which bore victories for those on the left and right.
Another Continuing Resolution? The enemy is us - The National Defense Authorization Act may earmark billions for different military programs, but it doesn’t mean much unless the government is funded. In the op-ed below, former Pentagon comptroller Elaine McCusker lays out the damage yet another Continuing Resolution could do, and where the pain would be felt most acutely.The 2022 National Defense Strategy identified China as “the most consequential and systemic challenge to U.S. national security,” a statement supported by the Defense Department’s annual China Military Power Report, released last month.Confronting such challenges to the nation requires important work to advance US military competitiveness, support the readiness of the force, and protect the nation’s security. This work takes time and money — time and money that is being lost every day under a continuing resolution (CR), which with the start of the fiscal year on Oct. 1 once again extended last year’s funding and priorities into the next year. That’s money that can’t be recovered. That’s time that can’t be bought back.As congressional and administration leaders meet to negotiate an agreement on an omnibus appropriations bill before adjourning this month, the threat of additional and long-term CRs looms, as do unacceptable consequences for our military, including delays for critical, high-profile programs from destroyers to the recently unveiled B-21 bomber.Congress has until December 16, when the current CR expires, to demonstrate it understands the daily and accumulating damage to national security caused by such temporary funding measures, and that it is willing to act to stop it.
Biden Keeps Up Tough Talk on Ukraine Despite Evidence of Failure -- On the one hand, it’s progress of sorts that it’s no longer verboten to talk about peace in the context of the war in Ukraine. Recall that when Kissinger tried to revive the idea of a negotiated end to the conflict after the UK (not doubt with US backing) scuppered the talks in Istanbul, the prevailing reaction was of revulsion. Russia must be comprehensively defeated!And recall that Kissinger’s proposed terms were ones Russia would never accept, yet they were deemed unacceptably generous.But even though peace is no longer a four letter word, for most commentators, it’s become a new way to fantasize about Russian rout. Putin needs an off ramp. The systematic demolition of Ukraine’s grid is a desperate last ditch measure, proving that Russia’s military is failing on the battlefield. The Russian public is revolting against the conscription. Ukraine troops are advancing.It was not entirely surprising to see Biden, in a press conference yesterday with Emmanuel Macron, willing only to entertain a peace with Russia that amounts to capitulation. But major press outlets like the Financial Times presented Biden’s position as a softening….because he is now willing to talk to Putin, albeit with the precondition that Putin be the instigator, as in come to the West seeking, meaning needing, peace.1 The transcript of the germane section of the Q&A, courtesy Yahoo:
- INTERPRETER: We hear that you will be talking to President Putin any time soon. What is your approach? And as the Ukrainian War seems to be at a turning point, do you feel realistic that President Zelensky is putting a condition to open negotiations that is the return of Crimea to Ukraine?
- JOE BIDEN: Look, there’s one way for this war to end, the rational way, Putin to pull out of Ukraine, number one. But it appears he’s not going to do that. He’s paying a very heavy price for failing to do it. But he’s inflicting incredible, incredible carnage on the civilian population of Ukraine, bombing nurseries, hospitals, children’s homes. It’s sick what he’s doing. But the fact of the matter is, I have no immediate plans to contact Mr. Putin. Mr. Putin is– let me choose my words very carefully. I’m prepared to speak with Mr. Putin if in fact, there is an interest in him deciding he’s looking for a way to end the war. He hasn’t done that yet. If that’s the case, in consultation with my French and my NATO friends, I’ll be happy to sit down with Putin to see what he wants, has in mind. He hasn’t done that yet.The idea that Putin is ever going to defeat Ukraine is beyond comprehension. Imagine, I’m trying to occupy that country for the next 2,5, 10, 20 years– if they could– if they could. He’s miscalculated every single thing he initially calculated. He thought he’d be greeted with open arms by the Russian speaking portions of the Ukrainian population.
It is a certainty that these remarks are not posturing, that Biden believes what he says. He sees Russia as needing to exit a war it is losing, as defeat for Ukraine being impossible. He also decries the pain suffered by civilians of Ukraine, a theme that will resonate far more with Europeans than with Serbians, Yemenis, and other civilians on the wrong side of US regime change efforts.
‘We haven’t got this figured out just yet’: Pentagon, industry struggle to arm Ukraine - — A section of the Berlin Wall stands prominently on the grounds of the library and museum dedicated to the legacy of Ronald Reagan and the role he played in the demise of the Soviet Union. But this weekend, as the nation’s defense leaders gathered for the annual Reagan National Defense Forum, there was a palpable feeling that the bad old days are here again — and America and its European allies are still not fully up to the challenge. China is still widely considered the biggest long-term threat, as military leaders, members of Congress and defense company CEOs told the bipartisan gathering at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library & Museum. Yet it was eclipsed by the need to kick into much higher gear to tackle a problem that many here didn’t imagine just a year ago: a hot proxy war with Russia in Ukraine that has sent the Pentagon and the defense industry scrambling. “High-end conflict consumes a lot of munitions and a lot of weaponry,” Mike McCord, the Pentagon’s top budget official, said in an interview. “We are also looking at the supply chain limitations. We haven’t got this figured out just yet.” Top Pentagon and industry officials maintain that efforts are finally ramping up to replace the weapons that the United States and its allies have shipped to Ukraine — depleting stockpiles that are deemed crucial to deterring China or other potential adversaries for years to come. “There’s a lot of urgency,” Army Secretary Christine Wormuth told reporters. “Congress is sending billions of dollars to the Department of Defense, and we are turning that around and getting that on contract — I would say two to three times faster than we normally do.” She cited recent deals for tens of thousands of 155mm artillery rounds that the Ukrainians are using up almost as soon as they arrive. By the spring, “we will be able to do 20,000 rounds a month,” she said. But it will take time to manufacture enough of them, she said, adding that the U.S. will get that rate up to 40,000 rounds a month in the spring of 2025. Indeed, reigniting plants that make artillery, rockets, missiles and air defenses that were tailored for peacetime efficiency — rather than war-time production — is proving a massive task.
The Air Force wants to send its Reaper drones to Ukraine. The Pentagon’s not so sure. - The Air Force thought it had the perfect plan: Take its older Reaper drones, which it’s been trying to get rid of for years, and send them to Ukraine, a country begging for long-range weaponry. But after months of internal wrangling, the Pentagon has yet to make a decision — even though the drones could provide a capability to Ukraine that it’s wanted since the start of the war. The Air Force made the pitch to send its older Reaper drones to Ukraine about a month after Russia invaded in late February. But concerns over the transfer of sensitive technology, and the fact that some would almost certainly be shot down, has led to a months-long stalemate, according to four people familiar with the issue. The four people were granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. The debate over the armed drones has see-sawed for much longer than for other once-controversial systems, such as artillery and long-range tactical missile systems, both of which began arriving by the summer as fighting escalated. The stance has frustrated Ukrainian officials who have pledged to use the donated drones to strike only Russian positions within Ukraine, and have promised to share targeting information with the U.S. before launching strikes, one of the people said. Both the Reaper and the Army version — the Gray Eagle — would give Ukraine a critical new capability as the country’s forces press on occupied Crimea and the well-defended Russian frontlines in Donbas. The issue isn’t off the table, DoD and industry officials have suggested, as the Pentagon and drone maker General Atomics continue to try to make one or both drones transferable to Ukraine.
Biden administration has ‘concerns’ about providing Ukraine cluster munitions - The Biden administration has “concerns” about fulfilling Ukraine’s request for cluster munitions, weapons banned by more than 100 countries that Russia is using to deadly effect on the battlefield, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said. “According to our own policy, we have concerns about the use of those kinds of munitions,” Kirby told reporters Friday, declining to confirm any specific request from Kyiv. Ukraine’s request for cluster munitions is just one of many that the Biden administration, for the moment, isn’t actively considering, said a person familiar with the situation, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. “It’s not a no, it’s not something that’s moving right now,” the person said. Cluster munitions, first used in World War II, consist of a container that opens in the air, scattering large numbers of explosive “bomblets” over a wide area. They were initially designed to destroy multiple military targets over a large area, but also pose significant danger to civilians during and after an operation. The United States is not a signatory to the international ban, the 2010 Convention on Cluster Munitions, yet the request is “complicated for optics” reasons and the risk to civilians of unexploded ordnance left behind on the battlefield, the person said. Congress has imposed statutory restrictions on Washington’s ability to transfer cluster munitions, citing the risk to civilians. The president or the secretary of State can override these constraints, but a high standard must be met. In this instance, the United States does not believe the munitions Ukraine is asking for — dual-purpose improved conventional munitions — are necessary for Kyiv on the battlefield. Ukraine wants munitions that can be launched from High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and 155mm Howitzers, according to CNN, which first reported the news. Human rights organizations have documented Russia’s use of cluster bombs on civilian targets both in Ukraine and in Syria. Moscow has deployed the weapons, including the 300mm Smerch cluster rockets that launch 72 munitions out to 90 kilometers, including in Kharkiv. Providing cluster munitions to Ukraine would be a bad look as the United States has recently committed $89 million to helping Kyiv clear the Russian land mines that now litter huge swaths of the country, POLITICO reported in August. The money will fund 100 de-mining teams in Ukraine over the next year, and will go toward identifying the areas of greatest contamination and helping train and equip Ukrainian forces tasks with removing the mines, officials said at the time. Kyiv believes that 160,000 square kilometers of land may be contaminated by land mines and other unexploded ordnance — an area roughly the size of Virginia, Maryland and Connecticut combined.
US military aid to Ukraine hits $20 billion - The Pentagon on Friday announced another $275 million in weapons and equipment for Ukraine, pushing the amount of military aid committed to Kyiv under Biden to nearly $20 billion — with most since Russia first attacked the country. The latest $275 million package for Ukraine will include more ammunition for high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS), 80,000 155 mm artillery rounds, counter-unmanned aerial systems equipment, counter air defenses, additional High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles, ambulances and medical equipment, 150 generators and other field equipment, according to a Defense Department release. There are no major new weapons included in the latest U.S. lethal aid package, with the aid instead meant to restock systems already in Ukraine, including HIMARS, as well as bolster its air defenses. “This security assistance package will provide Ukraine with new capabilities to boost its air defenses in addition to providing critical equipment that Ukraine is using so effectively to defend itself on the battlefield,” the release stated. The United States has now committed about $19.3 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the start of the war in February and about $20 billion since the beginning of the Biden administration. The latest aid tranche comes as Russia has been bombarding Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and energy grids as winter settles in, though on the ground fighting between Ukrainian and Russian troops is expected to slow.
Nearly half of Americans say Washington should push Ukraine to reach peace deal with Russia: poll - About half of Americans (47 percent) say that Ukraine should be pushed into a peace agreement with Russia as soon as possible, according to survey results released on Monday. An Ipsos poll conducted by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that the percentage of Americans who say the U.S. should urge Ukraine to settle, in part so that costs will lessen for American households, had increased from 38 percent in July to 47 percent in November.A similar proportion (48 percent) said in the survey taken Nov. 18-20 that the U.S. should support Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” despite potential costs to American citizens. That percentage has decreased by 10 points since July.The Ipsos poll, conducted by KnowledgePanel on a sample of 1,030 adults from all 50 states and the District of Columbia, found strong partisan divisions on the question of whether Ukraine should be pushed to settle.Sixty-one percent of Democrats say that the U.S. should continue supporting Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” compared to just a third of Republicans who said the same.Both parties’ opinions have changed since July, when 69 percent of Democrats and half of Republicans said that the U.S. should maintain its support of Ukraine.However, majorities of Americans still back assistance efforts for Ukraine, with two-thirds supporting arms supplies and economic aid for the country and three-quarters supporting acceptance of Ukrainian refugees and sanctions on Russia.The November poll, which has a margin of error of 3 percentage points, found indicators that news sources could affect Americans’ views on whether and for how long to continue supporting Ukraine.Twenty-six percent of those who trust Fox News the most for information on the war say that they believe Ukraine has an advantage over Russia, while higher percentages of those who most trust MSNBC (48 percent), NBC (36 percent), public television (33 percent) and CNN (32 percent) say the same.
Biden supports keeping vaccine mandate for troops, setting up fight with Congress - President Joe Biden and his Pentagon chief oppose any effort to repeal the vaccine mandate for troops, the White House said Monday, setting up a fight with lawmakers who want to roll back the policy as part of the upcoming defense policy bill. “The president agrees with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that the Pentagon should continue to require all service members be vaccinated and boosted against Covid-19,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters. “Secretary Austin has been very clear that he opposes the repeal of the vaccine policy, and the president actually concurs with the secretary of defense,” Kirby said. “He continues to believe that all Americans, including those in the armed forces, should be vaccinated and boosted for COVID-19.” “Vaccines are saving lives, including our men and women in uniform. So this remains very much a health and readiness issue for the force,” he continued. Kirby’s comments come as members of Congress consider repealing the controversial policy as part of the defense policy bill, which is set to be unveiled this week. Another possibility is that lawmakers keep the requirement to get the shot but undo the Pentagon’s policy of kicking out service members who refuse the vaccine. At this point, 98 percent of the armed forces have been vaccinated against Covid-19, according to the DoD. But thousands of troops have been released from service for refusing the shot. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy told Fox News on Saturday that he had reached an agreement to repeal the mandate at a White House meeting with the president and Democratic leadership. But the White House later said the president was only “considering” McCarthy’s proposal.
Democrats make major concession on vaccine mandate - Congress is poised to use the annual defense policy bill to eliminate the Pentagon’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate — a major concession by President Biden’s Democratic allies that helps clear the way to passing the sweeping package before year’s end. In a compromise with Republicans, House Democrats are allowing language into the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that repeals the coronavirus vaccine mandate for U.S. service members a year after it was enacted, House Armed Services Committee ranking member Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) confirmed to The Hill Tuesday. The bill, which lays out how an $847 billion Defense Department top line will be allocated in fiscal 2023, is tentatively set to be released as early as Tuesday evening and voted on by the House Thursday, Rogers said. Asked if he believes the language will stick amid all the last-minute jostling over the bill, Rogers replied: “Yes.” Republican lawmakers for months have pushed back on the Pentagon’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate, which Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin first installed in August 2021. Since then, thousands of active-duty service members have been discharged for refusing the shots, according to the latest Pentagon numbers. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who is vying for the Speaker’s gavel in the next Congress, said on Sunday that the NDAA “will not move” unless the mandate for the military is lifted through the bill. The compromise is effectively a loss for the White House and Pentagon, which have both opposed using the NDAA to repeal the vaccine mandate. “We lost a million people to this virus,” Austin told reporters traveling with him Saturday, as reported by The Associated Press. “A million people died in the United States of America. We lost hundreds in DOD. So this mandate has kept people healthy.”
Judge dismisses lawsuit against Saudi prince over Khashoggi killing - A federal judge on Tuesday dismissed a lawsuit against Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.U.S. District Judge John Bates ruled that Crown Prince Mohammed is entitled to head-of-state immunity, deferring to the determination made last month by the State Department.Khashoggi was killed in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul in 2018 on Crown Prince Mohammed’s order, U.S. intelligence determined. Khashoggi’s fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, filed suit against the crown prince in U.S. court in 2020.In the wake of the State Department’s determination, Cengiz has argued that Crown Prince Mohammed, who was made Saudi prime minister just days before the U.S. government was set to file its statement of interest in the case, sought to manipulate the court.However, Bates chose to defer to the federal government’s mid-November determination, noting that the executive branch is responsible for foreign affairs and any other decision would “unduly interfere” with its responsibilities.“Despite the Court’s uneasiness, then, with both the circumstances of bin Salman’s appointment and the credible allegations of his involvement in Khashoggi’s murder, the United States has informed the Court that he is immune, and bin Salman is therefore ‘entitled to head of state immunity … while he remains in office,’” Bates said in Tuesday’s filing.
'All of Rail Labor Is Going to Suffer': Workers Furious Over Biden Move to Preempt Strike Rank-and-file rail workers voiced frustration and anger last week after Joe Biden—a self-described "pro-labor president"—urged Congress to pass legislation forcing unions to accept a contract agreement without any paid sick days, a step that would avert a looming nationwide strike and deliver a win for the profitable railroad industry."By forcing workers into an agreement which doesn't address basic needs like healthcare and sick time, President Joe Biden is choosing railroads over workers and the economy," said Ross Grooters, an engineer and co-chair of Railroad Workers United, an inter-union alliance that supports public ownership of the national rail system.Another worker was more blunt in a text message to labor reporter Jonah Furman: "Words cannot express how fucking livid I am at this administration... people in power, LIKE HIM, would rather screw workers than stand up to fucking robber barons."While Congress could put forth legislation that would improve the tentative White House-brokered contract deal announced in September, Biden made clear he wants lawmakers "to pass legislation immediately to adopt the tentative agreement between railroad workers and operators—without any modifications or delay—to avert a potentially crippling national rail shutdown."That agreement, which has been rejected by more than half of the country's unionized rail workforce, does not include a single day of paid sick leave and would only allow three penalty-free days off per year for medical visits. But even that time off is heavily constrained: It's unpaid; can only be taken on a Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday; and must be scheduled at least 30 days in advance."These agreements were rejected because the quality of life rail workers and their families have today is abysmal," Ash Anderson, a member of the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division (BMWED)—one of the unions that voted against ratifying the tentative deal—wrote on Facebook. "There were no provisions to improve the quality of life for rail workers, who continue to be exploited by companies that are earning record-breaking profits while their service suffers and they cut their workforce to the bone."
Unions bash senators for rejecting paid sick leave for rail workers -- Labor leaders lashed out at senators who voted against a proposal to provide rail workers with seven days of paid sick leave. While the Senate overwhelmingly approved a measure to force through a railroad contract that gives workers a 24 percent raise over five years, a proposal to add paid sick days to the deal failed to reach 60 votes. All but six Republicans voted against the measure. “While rail workers won significant wage increases and other important gains today, it’s deeply disappointing that 43 senators sided with multibillion-dollar rail corporations to block desperately needed paid sick days,” AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler said in a statement. By pushing through the contract, which was negotiated with the help of the Biden administration in September, Congress will prevent a devastating Dec. 9 rail strike that was set to cause service disruptions as soon as this weekend. But lawmakers also overrode the vote of train and engine workers at SMART-TD, the largest rail union, who narrowly rejected the tentative deal last month amid concerns about paid sick leave. Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) was the only Democrat to vote against the sick leave proposal. GOP Sens. Marco Rubio (Fla.), Ted Cruz (Texas), Mike Braun (Ind.), Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Josh Hawley (Mo.) and John Kennedy (La.) were the only Republicans to support it. “The fact that there are not 60 senators willing to stand up to Big Business and fight for basic rights for U.S. rail workers is horrific,” tweeted Sean O’Brien, general president of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters. “Every senator who voted NO may not have a spine but at least they still have unlimited sick days. I’m looking at [Manchin] and 42 other cowards.” Railroads lobbied senators to push through the Biden-negotiated deal without sick leave, arguing that lawmakers would set a bad precedent by modifying an agreement that was negotiated over a period of years.
Democratic Socialists of America scrambles to defend its role in imposing rail contract - The Democratic Socialists of America has been thrown into crisis after three of its four members in the House of Representatives voted to impose a contract on the railroad workers, blocking a national rail strike. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush all voted in favor of the bill, with only Rashida Tlaib voting against. Together with Bernie Sanders in the Senate, the DSA-backed caucus introduced a separate resolution to give railroaders seven days paid sick leave. This was purely political theater to provide the Democrats with political cover. It had no chance of passing the Senate over opposition from Republicans and even right-wing Democrats such as Joe Manchin. And it was crafted in such a way that its passage in the House but rejection in the Senate would not even delay the signing of the anti-strike law. In the Senate, Sanders cast a meaningless “no” vote against imposing the contract, but his support was critical for the expedited procedure through which it was passed, because under Senate rules it requires the support of all 100 senators. The role of the DSA shocked and angered many of its own members, which include sincere but politically inexperienced youth who joined in the belief that the DSA was a genuinely socialist organization. The DSA leadership, meanwhile, is in full damage control mode. The DSA Political Committee issued a statement Monday titled “Stand with Railworkers, Build Workers Power,” which was in reality wholly devoted to whitewashing the role of the DSA in illegalizing a strike by railroaders. “We condemn the move by President Biden and Congress to force over 100,000 rail workers to accept the TA by denying them the legal right to strike,” the statement claimed. It added, “When every major power in the country—the center, the right, and our laws—aligned against workers, DSA members in Congress introduced a legislative push for sick days, and forced a vote on the measure, which did not succeed.” After praising Rashida Tlaib’s vote against imposing the contract, the statement then adds in passing, several sentences down, “We disagree and are disappointed with the decision of DSA members Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rep. Cori Bush to needlessly vote to enforce the TA.” The DSA is trying to cancel out public perception of its support for the anti-strike law by citing its support for adding seven sick days to the contract that Congress voted to impose. But even if this fig leaf had passed, it still would not have changed the fact that DSA members voted to strip workers of their democratic right to strike, which is a far more fundamental issue than sick days. The DSA Political Committee statement tries to falsely separate the actions of Biden and the Democratic Party, of which it is a part, from the DSA. In reality, the DSA is a critical element of the Democrats’ attempts to keep workers and leftward moving youth trapped within the confines of this right-wing capitalist party. It is assisted in this role by a whole constellation of pseudo-left groups in and around the DSA, It has repeatedly come to the defense of the Biden administration and the Democratic Party against opposition from the left. In March of 2021, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez denounced left-wing criticism of Biden as a “privileged critique” by “bad faith actors.”
Why Workers Are Up in Arms Over the Biden Rail Strike Intervention - The United States Senate acted in a show of rare unity recently in voting 80 to 15 to pass a bill forcing rail workers to accept their employers’ contract offer without a strike. There was no such unity to pass an amendment introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) that would have given rail workers seven paid sick leave days. That bill did not pass even though 52 senators voted for it, as it failed the requisite 60-vote threshold. According to the Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen, “Almost every elected member of Congress campaigns on being ‘for the working class.’” But, in response to the failure to pass the sick leave amendment, the Brotherhood pointed out that Congress’s actions “demonstrated they are for the corporate class.” he Brotherhood is among several unions representing a little more than 100,000 people working in the rail industry. This is more than half of all rail workers in the U.S. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Because trains operate 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, railroad workers’ schedules may vary to include nights, weekends, and holidays. Most work full time, and some work more than 40 hours per week.” A job so crucial that the entire U.S. economy is dependent on it pays a median salary of less than $65,000 a year with no paid sick leave whatsoever.Explaining why Congress felt it necessary to pass a bill to make it illegal for rail workers to strike for better conditions, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said, “A nationwide rail shutdown would be catastrophic—a shutdown would grind our economy to a halt, and every family would feel the strain.” President Joe Biden similarly explained that the congressional intervention in averting a rail strike would help avoid “devastating economic consequences for workers, families, and communities across the country.”An economy that devastates workers, leaving them underpaid for a high-pressure job with no sick days, is apparently just fine.Instead of using its power to force the private rail companies to grant paid sick leave to rail workers, Congress used its levers of power to side with corporate forces rather than with workers. It chose to uplift profits over workers’ needs.The cost of those profits is tangible and minuscule. Sanders pointed out in a tweet on November 29 that, “Guaranteeing 7 paid sick days to rail workers would cost the rail industry a grand total of $321 million a year—less than 2 percent of its profits.” Meanwhile, he added, “Rail companies spent $25.5 billion on stock buybacks and dividends this year.”To help private rail companies secure $321 million a year in profits, Congress and the president inserted themselves into contract negotiations and sold out more than 100,000 workers.
The surprising player in the rail strike fight: Fossil fuel companies - As the country barrelled towards a potential rail workers strike last week, battle lines were drawn over the issue of paid sick leave. On the one side were unions — the signalmen, track workers, boilermakers, and conductors — who had rejected a contract brokered in September that didn’t include paid time off for illnesses or medical visits. On the other were big rail companies, which have spent years cutting staff, extending worker hours, and enacting stricter attendance policies, all while making record-breaking profits. Behind the scenes, however, another big industry also had stakes in the standoff: Big Oil. Coal companies, chemical companies, and oil and gas backed rail majors in lobbying Congress to block the workers’ strike. In early November, the American Chemistry Council, which counts BP, ExxonMobil, and Chevron among its members, put out a report warning that a rail strike could “pull $160 billion out of the economy” and lead to 700,000 job losses. Then last week, 400 business groups sent a letter to Congress urging lawmakers to use their authority from a 1926 law to impose the controversial, rejected contract in the absence of a voluntary agreement. In addition to retailers, agriculturists, and car manufacturers, signatories included the American Petroleum Institute, a trade group for drillers, the National Mining Association, and the Renewable Fuels Association, representing ethanol. All of these industries rely on freight rail to make and ship their products.“A rail strike would threaten to push an alarming situation over the edge,” Rich Nolan, president and CEO of the National Mining Association, said in a press statement, invoking the already-low coal stockpiles moving into the winter. “The nation needs reliable and efficient rail service and it’s imperative that Congress and the Biden administration act to ensure a strike doesn’t jeopardize it.”In the end, rail companies and fossil fuel interests were joined by President Joe Biden, who urged Congress to avert the strike over fears of economic breakdown. On Thursday, the Senate did just that, forcing workers to accept the contract with paid sick leave still missing. “The fact that there are not 60 senators willing to stand up to big business and fight for basic rights for U.S. rail workers is horrific,” tweeted Teamster General President Sean O’Brien. At first glance, rail would seem like a relatively climate-friendly industry. Transportation is the highest emitter of greenhouse gases in the United States, where passenger cars, trucks, and buses make up over 70 percent of the sector’s emissions. Rail contributes just 2 percent, even while it moves a third of all U.S. exports and about 40 percent of long-distance freight. But what is often missing in these calculations is what these trains are carrying. Freight trains transport nearly 70 percent of the nation’s coal. When you account for that, they were actually responsible for 16.5 percent of all U.S. carbon pollution in 2019, according to Stanford geoscience professor Rob Jackson, as reported by the Atlantic.
Rail workers warn of exodus after Congress forces through deal - Railroad workers could leave the industry after Congress forced through a contract that does not provide them any paid sick days, an exodus that would ripple through an economy reliant on freight railroads to transport goods. The exit of thousands of train conductors and engineers would be felt by major corporations and U.S. consumers alike. It could slow the delivery of food, fuel and online orders while strangling already-shaky supply chains. The economy was almost upended by a nationwide strike before lawmakers intervened last week to enforce a deal many workers found lacking. Those who were holding out hope for a strong contract might look for a new job after the deal failed to provide paid sick leave or put an end to strict attendance policies and strenuous schedules that require workers to be on call constantly, rail workers say. “I don’t think you’ll just see half of the workforce disappear, but you’ll see a good percentage, and we can’t afford for anybody to leave because we’re so undermanned as it is,” said Hugh Sawyer, an Atlanta-based engineer at Norfolk Southern. Any exodus of workers would only exacerbate staffing shortages brought on by railroads laying off around 30 percent of their workforce over the past six years. That, in turn, has led to exhausted workers and persistent delays and cancellations when demand for shipped products spiked. Business groups have warned that the disruptions, which are driven by staffing shortfalls, helped fuel inflation. Sawyer, who serves as treasurer of grassroots rail reform group Railroad Workers United, said that younger workers who place more emphasis on work-life balance will be the first to leave.“Most of these people live in or around metro Atlanta. The economy’s booming. They will find a job elsewhere,” Sawyer said. Workers say that some employees could leave as soon as they receive back pay and cash bonuses, which will average roughly $16,000 per person. Railroads will dole out that money within 60 days.
Border Patrol Agents Eviscerate Biden For Saying He's Got "More Important Things" To Worry About -- Joe Biden declared Tuesday that he has “more important things” to worry about than visiting the border, despite the fact that he was in Arizona anyway for an appearance. It started with the White House attempting to avoid the issue altogether: Then Fox News reporter Peter Doocy outright asked Biden why he wasn’t going to check on the border despite being only a few miles away. Watch: [...] Border patrol agents were not impressed, with one commenting to the Daily Caller “MORE IMPORTANT THINGS? This is HIS disaster, he created this catastrophe. The border crisis is a total breach of National Security. Give me a fucking break…I can’t wait for this clown to be out of office.” Another Border agent charged that Biden’s comments betray “another example of how delusional he is.” “It’s in their narrative to downplay the destabilization of the U.S. What could possibly be more important than criminals and terrorists infiltrating the country and tens of thousands of fentanyl overdoses, mostly being young adults,” the agent added. National Border Patrol Council President Brandon Judd added “The President’s most fundamental job is the safety and security of the American people. He’s failing. With a record number of people and dangerous drugs flowing across our borders, the President owes it to this country to go to the border and develop a strategy of security.” “Unfortunately, President Biden’s record speaks for itself. He cares more about politics than American lives,” Judd asserted.
U.S. again delays deadline for Real IDs, until May 2025 - U.S. officials are delaying for two more years the enforcement of a rule requiring people to get new identification cards to board domestic flights, access federal facilities or enter nuclear plants. The Department of Homeland Security said Monday the Real ID Act will not be enforced until May 2025, marking the latest postponement for the rule. The rule had most recently been slated to go into effect in May 2023. The agency cited “the lingering impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic,” as partially responsible for the continued delay. It noted that the pandemic made it more difficult for people to obtain licenses or identification cards that are Real ID-compliant. The Real ID Act, passed in 2005 in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, enhanced the security standards necessary for driver’s licenses and other identification cards to be accepted for certain activities, such as boarding planes. Real IDs can be identified by a star in the right-hand corner of a driver’s license or identification card. “This extension will give states needed time to ensure their residents can obtain a Real ID-compliant license or identification card. DHS will also use this time to implement innovations to make the process more efficient and accessible,” said Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro N. Mayorkas in a press release. Enforcement of the Real ID rule has been repeatedly delayed since the original 2008 deadline. It was slated to go into effect in October 2020, but then the deadline was pushed back to October 2021 after states pressured the federal government for an extension due to Covid pandemic obstacles. That deadline never kicked in to gear either, and officials again pushed back enforcement until May 2023.
Biden won’t ask Congress to tweak climate law - The Biden administration is in talks with European leaders about how to address concerns with the new U.S. climate and clean energy law, but the White House doesn’t plan to ask Congress for changes. “We don’t have any plans to go back to Congress for legislative changes,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters Friday aboard Air Force One as she traveled to Boston with the president. The rollout of the climate law — whose passage marked a major victory for the Biden administration — was a major discussion topic during French President Emmanuel Macron’s state visit this week. During a joint press conference with Macron on Thursday, Biden said there are “obviously going to be glitches” and a “need to reconcile changes” in a law of that magnitude. Biden said there are “tweaks that we can make,” and Macron said France and the United States would work to “re-synchronize” their policy goals moving forward (E&E News PM, Dec.. 1). France and other European Union countries have criticized provisions in the climate law that favor renewable energy components that are manufactured in the United States. Senate Finance Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), a key player in the law’s passage, told the Associated Press he had “no intention of reopening it.” Jean-Pierre said Friday that “there are ways we can address Europe’s concerns,” but she did not offer specifics about what those could be. She said the administration is working on the matter through “substantive consultations” with European counterparts.
EPA has a new climate fund. Who should control the money? - A $27 billion EPA fund meant to curb planet-warming emissions should be used to support climate projects in disadvantaged areas — and use an existing network of financiers to do so, say community development advocates and green groups. At issue is the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, a key provision of the Inflation Reduction Act that aims to leverage federal dollars to provide communities across the country with low-cost, flexible financing for clean energy projects. The EPA-administered program will work by granting billions of dollars to nonprofit organizations, who then will dole out the money to local lenders that specialize in green financing and community development lending (Climatewire, July 29). The public comment period on the program ended Monday. A range of groups offered opinions on a diverse set of issues, including how the financing should be structured, what types of projects should be prioritized, as well as how — and through whom — the money should flow.Fewer than 40 letters have been made public so far.But the comment letters reviewed by E&E News suggest that one top issue for EPA will be deciding which organizations, as well as how many organizations, should receive $20 billion that comprise the measure’s “general fund.” The other $7 billion will go directly to states, territories, local governments and tribal governments.A wide range of groups are calling on EPA to grant that bucket of money — $8 billion of which is required to go to low-income and disadvantaged communities — to multiple organizations that have relationships with communities on the front lines of climate change.But one influential group, the Coalition for Green Capital (CGC), says the fund should be used to create a national green bank, which would be in charge of allocating the money. For decades, the Coalition for Green Capital has argued that a national green bank is the most effective way to ensure dollars are distributed quickly with proper oversight. Notably, the White House announced Monday that Jahi Wise, who currently serves as a special assistant to President Joe Biden for climate policy and finance, will head the fund. Wise previously directed policy at the Coalition for Green Capital (E&E News PM, Dec. 5).
'Buy America' timeline threatens to delay EV charger network - Construction of a national web of electric vehicle charging stations could be delayed if the Biden administration enforces a January deadline to manufacture the chargers domestically, according to industry officials who are racing to build the network. State transportation agencies, along with manufacturers and operators of electric vehicle chargers, say “Buy America” rules mandating that the EV chargers be made and assembled with U.S. parts and labor could derail their planning processes if they are implemented too quickly. The officials are concerned that the runway for “Buy America” implementation is too short. American manufacturing of EV charger materials is still nascent and ramping up gradually, meaning there’s a high risk of bottlenecks and holdups as states and companies compete for a limited supply of domestic manufacturing options. A proposed waiver from the Department of Transportation would impose “Buy America” requirements on the $7.5 billion charger network program starting next month. For state planners and charger operators, that timeline is impracticable for the kinds of fast chargers that the coast-to-coast network will depend on. “None of the [charger network] funds have even been awarded yet, and so a waiver that ends in January is not really a waiver,” said Jonathan Levy, chief commercial officer at EVgo, which operates the country’s largest network of public fast-charging stations. “With the way the waiver is currently written, we’re all kind of in a bit of a holding pattern,” he said. “We need a glide path; we need to make sure we have a timeline that matches the current market realities.”
White House unveils federal efficiency, climate plans - - The White House on Wednesday announced a new suite of climate actions to compel the federal government’s antiquated building stock to electrify — soon. On a press call, White House officials laid out actions to decarbonize the federal government — a major energy consumer — in the coming years and decades. The White House officials struck a familiar tone, selling their policies as ways to create jobs and save taxpayers money. “We are focused on what we can get done in this decisive decade,” said Ali Zaidi, the White House climate adviser. “As with every sector, when we look at the opportunity, what we see is jobs and opportunity for U.S. industry.” The actions stem from President Joe Biden’s directive to achieve net-zero emissions in all federal buildings by 2045. The administration is bolstered by the influx of cash for government procurement in the Inflation Reduction Act. The Council on Environmental Quality is establishing the first-of-its-kind federal building performance standard, which mandates 30 percent of federal buildings be electrified by 2030. To get there, federal agencies need to buy a lot of heat pumps, electric water heaters and other energy saving appliances — all required to be made in America. “It goes without saying that slashing emissions from the federal government, the country’s single-largest energy consumer, will be hugely consequential,” CEQ Chair Brenda Mallory said. When asked, Mallory clarified the new standard does not amount to a regulation, meaning it would be more difficult for a future administration to undo, but stressed the decarbonization plans have had “durable effects across administrations.” A second action from the Energy Department would build on an Obama proposal to set emissions reductions targets in federal buildings and install electric appliances in new ones. Specifically, the rule would address on-site emissions from appliances and equipment within buildings. It’s supposed to save $8 million annually, officials said.
Energy Department rule would cut government building emissions 90 percent A new proposed rule from the Biden administration would cut emissions from new federal buildings 90 percent from 2003 levels in the next two years. Under the proposed rule, new or renovated federal buildings would be required to reduce emissions from the 2003 baseline by 90 percent beginning in 2025. Beginning in 2030, the rule would make new buildings and major renovations fully carbon-neutral, according to the Energy Department. “Ridding pollution from our buildings and adopting clean electricity are some of the most cost-effective and future-oriented solutions we have to combat climate change,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in a statement. “For the first time ever, DOE is establishing a firm timetable to reduce the government’s carbon footprint in new and existing federal facilities—ensuring the Biden-Harris Administration is leading by example in the effort to reach the nation’s ambitious climate goals.” About a quarter of federal emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels in government buildings. The proposed rule is estimated to cut federal buildings’ emissions by about 1.86 million metric tons and 22.8 thousand tons in methane emissions in the next three decades.
Biden gas ban: A national model or 'executive fiat'? - The Biden administration’s new plans to phase out fossil fuel use in federal buildings is spurring indignation from gas advocates and reviving questions about the climate promises of federal agencies. Outlined by administration officials in a press call yesterday, the plans include a first-ever building performance standard for federal agencies to be overseen by the White House’s Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) (E&E News PM, Dec. 7). Under the standard, federal agencies would decarbonize 30 percent of their buildings’ square footage by 2030 through electrification and reduction in energy use. Officials did not give an estimate of how many buildings that would entail, although the federal government is the nation’s largest landlord, operating about 300,000 buildings. The Energy Department also said it was proposing a rule that would put federal agencies on the path to eliminating gas heat. By 2025, new federal buildings would have to slash on-site fossil fuel consumption by 90 percent over 2003 levels under the proposal. By 2030, the federal government plans to stop buying fossil fuel equipment for all of its new buildings and major retrofits — a move that dozens of cities, counties and states on the East and West coasts are mandating for most new private buildings (Energywire, Nov. 30). The new DOE and CEQ targets fit within the Biden administration’s broader goals of halving greenhouse gas emissions from federal buildings by 2032 and reaching net zero by 2045. Those targets were laid out in an executive order a year ago from the president (Energywire, Dec. 13, 2021). Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the latest DOE proposal would save taxpayers money over federal buildings’ lifetime by switching to more energy-efficient electric equipment. Electrifying all new federal buildings would also slash the equivalent of Denver’s annual pollution from houses, she said on the press call. “But there’s another reason for the new standard. That is to lead by example,” she added. “By making all new federal buildings clean and electrified, we will be setting a gold standard for construction all across America,” said Granholm. Environmentalists and energy-efficiency groups applauded the announcements as a model for cities and states, while the American Gas Association attacked them as an “impractical, unscientific and expensive idea.” But the new plans resurface questions about whether federal agencies are capable of delivering on the promise of a full transition to clean building heat. According to Energy Department data, federal buildings emitted more greenhouse gas by burning fossil fuels in 2021 than in 2016.
Republicans launch probe of Biden energy policies - House Oversight and Reform ranking member James Comer assailed President Joe Biden’s energy policies on Sunday and launched a wide-ranging investigation of several federal agencies. The Kentucky Republican, who is poised to take the gavel in January, accused the administration of abusing the strategic oil reserves. He also said Biden had a “secret deal with Saudi Arabia to lower gas prices before the election.” In a press release Sunday, Comer said Biden “waged a war on American-made energy” and driven up costs for American families. Plans include multiple investigations into the administration — as well as the Biden family — when Republicans control the House next year. “Oversight Republicans have pushed senior Biden Administration officials for answers and will continue to seek their plans to reverse energy policies detrimental to the American people and our national security,” Comer said in a statement. Specifically, Comer went after the administration for canceling the Keystone XL pipeline, implemented a ban on oil drilling on federal lands and draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. And he fired off at least five letters to the administration. Comer asked Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm for information about the administration’s work to lower every prices. He also followed up with Granholm about “multiple requests” for SPR-related information.Comer sent a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken about the White House’s talks with Saudi Arabia about oil production and gasoline prices. The ranking member demanded a transcribed interview with State Department energy envoy Amos Hochstein. Comer asked EPA Administrator Michael Regan for a briefing and documents about the agency’s methane rulemaking. And the ranking member asked Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler about a problem with public comments related to environmental, social and governance rulemaking. The president halted oil leasing early in the administration, but sales have since resumed. Many oil drawdowns from the federal government’s stockpiles were mandated by Congress. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries moved to cut production ahead of the election, a move seen to be against the White House’s goals to lower prices. Comer’s comments Sunday were in line with a report Oversight Republicans issued last month. Comer also has also zeroed in on energy business dealings involving Hunter Biden, the president’s son (E&E Daily, Nov. 18). In general, Democrats have dismissed Republican attacks as politically charged. This weekend, they noted how gasoline prices have dropped to their lowest level in nearly a year
Conservative climate groups to wield power in GOP House - Conservative clean energy groups have built considerable influence with Republican lawmakers over the last four years. Now they’re set to take a leading role as the GOP prepares to take over the House. ClearPath, Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions and a coalition of similar organizations have spent millions on lobbying efforts and have consistently gotten an audience with lawmakers to make the case for the “energy innovation” agenda. They’ve become star witnesses for Republicans at hearings. They’ve also helped prod Republicans on climate change, moving the party away from outright denialism. GOP leaders have adopted many of the groups’ energy policy talking point.Leaders of the groups say their ultimate plan is to rival Democratic efforts.“If you look at the Democrats, they’ve got this huge ecosystem of folks out there to turn to for research and analysis and fellows to come and work in their offices and universities to release reports,” said Rich Powell, CEO of ClearPath. “Conservative policymakers just haven’t had that same ecosystem around them, and so we’re trying to help with thaHouse Democrats have held dozens of hearings on climate change since taking control of the House in 2019. Often, Republicans responded by inviting Powell to testify. In the 117th Congress alone, Powell has testified in committee hearings eight times. Jeremy Harrell, ClearPath’s chief strategy officer, has also appeared before lawmakers twice, while ClearPath Managing Director of Research Spencer Nelson testified in the Senate in September.
Climate foes push Great Reset conspiracy theory - People being forced to eat bugs. Confiscated cars. Cities going dark as electric lights are turned off. Climate lockdowns. Welcome to the conspiratorial world of the “Great Reset” theory. Its followers claim that government officials want to impose draconian lockdowns similar to the worst days of Covid-19 in order to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The conspiracy theory holds that a global elite is planning to shut down society and restrict personal freedoms, such as eating meat and driving gas-powered cars in their zeal to address climate change. The Great Reset has been boosted by climate deniers, right-wing media and conservative think tanks that oppose regulations on fossil fuels. It all began in June 2020 during the depths of Covid-19 lockdowns. Car traffic and industrial activity worldwide fell sharply, leading to lower levels of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Then-Prince Charles described that moment in time as a new beginning for the planet. The world had seen what was possible for the environment, and now renewable energy, clean cars and altered methods of commuting could help make those changes permanent. It was called the Great Reset. Before long it was turned into a rallying cry against Covid-19 lockdowns and, then, as a warning against climate action. Conservative activists used it to claim that environmental laws and regulations were an attack on their personal freedoms, said John Cook, a postdoctoral research fellow at the Climate Change Communication Research Hub at Monash University in Australia and an expert on climate disinformation. “Combining the claim ‘climate policy limits freedom’ with ‘climate change is a conspiracy’ is a potent combination as it combines conservative ideology with the conspiratorial mindset of a science denier,” he said. “So the climate lockdown conspiracy theory has the potential to resonate with climate deniers and spread further.” Now, increasingly, the Great Reset is being introduced to Americans who watch Fox News, or who follow Republicans like Reps. Paul Gosar of Arizona or Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who have promoted the conspiracy theory’s shifting claims. The Great Reset could come to the halls of Congress next year, when Republicans take control of the House. Party leaders have threatened to launch a series of investigations, including into President Joe Biden’s energy policies.
How Warnock's win changes the climate game for Senate Dems - Top Democrats will regain subpoena power. Committee work should get easier. And Sen. Joe Manchin will lose some leverage — even as the West Virginia Democrat gains more leeway to buck President Joe Biden. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock’s victory over Republican Herschel Walker in Tuesday’s Georgia Senate runoff means Democrats will have a 51-seat majority in the next Congress, ending the longest period in history with an evenly divided Senate. An extra vote doesn’t do much for Democrats’ ability to pass legislation on climate, or anything else. Republicans control the House, and most bills require 60 Senate votes. The upper chamber’s unanimous consent requirements also will continue to empower individual senators to jam up action. “This is still the Senate,” said Sarah Binder, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who specializes in Congress. “They’re better off with 51, for sure. But it’s not the silver bullet that turns the Senate into the House.” The biggest impacts could be felt in Senate committees, three experts said. The chamber’s 2021 power-sharing agreement evenly split committee membership between Democrats and Republicans. Vice President Kamala Harris can break tie votes on the Senate floor, but she cannot vote in committee. So whenever senators deadlocked on a vote, Democrats had to spend floor time discharging nominees or bills from committees. Committee work has been affected too. Committee staff and budgets have been split evenly between parties, stretching the majority’s staffers relatively thin. And Democrats have been constrained from issuing subpoenas, which typically require a committee or subcommittee majority vote. The extra vote also gives Democrats a cushion for the worst-case scenario: a senator getting sick, dying, resigning or otherwise leaving the chamber. Covid-19-related absences were a recurring issue for Democrats over the past two years. At least two Democrats — Sens. Patrick Leahy of Vermont and Ben Ray Luján of New Mexico — were hospitalized this year. Republicans in the House have said they will focus their new power on investigating Biden, his son Hunter Biden and the administration’s energy policy among other topics. With 51 votes, Democrats can conduct investigations of their own, including some that may act as counterprogramming to Republicans in the House. They also can pick up Democratic House probes that likely will be cut off by a Republican majority, such as the January 6th investigation or a probe into Big Oil’s climate disinformation campaigns. For the most part, Democrats have not been able to use subpoena power. Each panel has its own rules on subpoenas, but almost all of them require a majority committee vote. The exception was the investigations subcommittee of the Senate Homeland Security and Government Oversight Committee, where the chair retained unilateral subpoena power. But even that exception proved the rule. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), the subcommittee’s chair, collaborated with Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), the panel’s ranking member, earlier this year when he subpoenaed the director of the Federal Bureau of Prisons. “The Senate is not really typically a very partisan place. So these committees, when they function well, tend to be somewhat bipartisan,”
Bipartisan lawmakers push bills to increase domestic pharmaceutical production -- Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and Darren Soto (D-Fla.) on Tuesday advocated for bipartisan support of bills that would increase domestic pharmaceutical production amid shortages of essential drugs. “We are working in a bipartisan fashion to address this,” said Carter. “Whether you’re a Republican or Democrat, or an Independent, if you need that medication, you need that medication, and it needs to be available for you.” Soto said that the main reason for drug shortages was the fact that the U.S. was very dependent on other countries for key drugs, in particular China and India. “Right now, 72 percent of our pharmaceuticals are imported, 13 percent from China, and of course they’re an economic rival of ours,” Soto told The Hill contributing editor Steve Scully at the “Reimagining the Pharma Supply Chain” event. Carter said that the issues with relying on foreign production for key drugs became very apparent during the pandemic. “India withheld 26 drugs, 26 essential drugs during the pandemic that we could have used but they were hoarding those drugs in order to make sure they had them for their country,” Carter told Scully. “Now, nobody can really blame them for that, but at the same time that puts us in a predicament, where we don’t have access to those drugs,” Carter said. Both Carter and Soto agreed that the U.S had to be better prepared for an emergency situation like the COVID-19 pandemic in the future. “We don’t want to be caught flat footed again, like we saw in 2020 when the pandemic hit our shores,” said Soto. “We can’t be caught with our pants down if you will, and not have the antibiotics available for when the next big bug comes out,” said Carter.
Dems’ final Covid report slams government failures. Congress may repeat them. - Democrats on the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis on Friday released their final report, which argues that structural weaknesses, leadership failings and the spread of misinformation contributed to the deaths of more than 1 million Americans during the pandemic. The report closes the book on two-plus years of investigating the Trump administration’s handling of the pandemic and arrives amid uncertainty about how oversight will shift under the incoming Republican House majority. The 200-plus page document lays out the “pre-existing vulnerabilities, failures in leadership and program implementation, and predatory actions by private actors that contributed to extraordinary loss of life, economic suffering, and waste, fraud, and abuse during the crisis.” The committee makes 30 recommendations for protecting the country during future pandemics, ranging from replenishing the Strategic National Stockpile to passing legislation to improve research and treatment of long Covid to enacting universal paid sick and family leave for U.S. workers. Yet the report comes as Congress is poised to repeat some of the very mistakes the committee highlights. Partisan fighting appears likely to doom the Biden administration’s request for $10 billion to combat the Covid-19 pandemic — funding the administration says is necessary to keep vaccines, tests and therapeutics free for the public and continue developing better treatments for the virus. And a bipartisan pandemic preparedness bill that would bolster public health staff, data infrastructure and long Covid research is in danger of being left out of a year-end package. “The coronavirus crisis will not be the last public health emergency or economic crisis that we confront,” warned committee Chair Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), who described the report as “as a guidepost for future legislators as well as for the American people.” In addition to summarizing the committee’s previous 37 reports — which accuse the Trump administration of manipulating health data, Emergent BioSolution’s vaccine manufacturing problems and landlords’ eviction practices, among other topics — the final report includes new information from the final investigations committee Democrats launched this fall into spreaders of coronavirus misinformation, and Covid deaths in for-profit nursing home chains.. The report examines how doctors and conspiracy theorists affiliated with the site SpeakWithAnMD.com profited from promoting misinformation about the pandemic and prescribing off-label drugs like hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin.
Fetterman Taps Person Who Literally Wrote the Book on Killing Senate Filibuster as Chief of Staff - U.S. Senator-elect John Fetterman on Friday announced two key staff hires for his office on Friday, including tapping the author of a book calling for the abolishment of the arcane Senate filibuster to be his next chief of staff. The Pennsylvania Democrat said in a statement that he has hired Adam Jentleson to oversee his D.C. office as chief of staff and that longtime party operative and labor organizer Joseph Pierce will be his state director. A veteran of the Senate who served under former Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, Jentleson also wrote the 2021 book, Kill Switch: The Rise of the Modern State and the Crippling of American Democracy, which examines Senate rules that powerful interests have exploited to obstruct progressive legislation with overwhelming majority support among the American public. Throughout the first two years of the Biden administration, Jentleson was a key voice calling for Senate reforms to enact pressing priorities. When Republicans blocked an effort in the Senate in May of 2021 to establish an official inquiry into the January 6 insurrection, Jentleson, then serving as executive director of the advocacy group Battle Born Collective, said it would be a "dereliction of duty" for Democrats not to reform the chamber's rules to push the measure through. "There is no longer any question about whether Republicans will put country over party—it is clear to anyone with eyes to see that they will not," Jentleson said at the time. "The only question that remains is whether Democrats will take the steps necessary to protect our democracy, and end the filibuster." On the campaign trail ahead of the midterm elections, Fetterman repeatedly vowed to support the end of the filibuster in the Senate if it would allow for key legislation to pass on gun control, labor protections, abortion rights, or voting access. At a September rally with voters, Fetterman denounced the U.S. Supreme Court ruling destroying the abortion rights and said, "Send me to D.C. and you will know I will be there to be that vote to scrap the filibuster and codify Roe v. Wade." While Jentleson has been spearheading Fetterman's transition team since winning in Pennsylvania against Republican Mehmet Oz, Pierce served as statewide political director on the winning campaign.
Sinema switches to independent, shaking up the Senate - Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is changing her party affiliation to independent, delivering a jolt to Democrats’ narrow majority and Washington along with it. In a 45-minute interview, the first-term senator told POLITICO that she will not caucus with Republicans and suggested that she intends to vote the same way she has for four years in the Senate. “Nothing will change about my values or my behavior,” she said. Provided that Sinema sticks to that vow, Democrats will still have a workable Senate majority in the next Congress, though it will not exactly be the neat and tidy 51 seats they assumed. They’re expected to also have the votes to control Senate committees. And Sinema’s move means Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) — a pivotal swing vote in the 50-50 chamber the past two years — will hold onto some but not all of his outsized influence in the Democratic caucus. Sinema would not address whether she will run for reelection in 2024, and informed Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of her decision on Thursday. “I don’t anticipate that anything will change about the Senate structure,” Sinema said, adding that some of the exact mechanics of how her switch affects the chamber is “a question for Chuck Schumer … I intend to show up to work, do the same work that I always do. I just intend to show up to work as an independent.”
New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez under investigation by House Ethics Committee - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., is under a House ethics investigation, according to a statement issued by the House Committee on Ethics on Wednesday. The panel will announce its course of action after its organizational meeting in the next Congress, sometime in 2023, the statement said. Details about what the investigation is looking into haven't been released. The Office of Congressional Ethics, a nonpartisan group, forwarded its inquiry into Ocasio-Cortez to the House ethics panel in June.Committee Acting Chair Susan Wild, D-Penn., and Ranking Member Michael Guest, R-Miss., said the disclosure of the investigation "does not itself indicate that any violation has occurred, or reflect any judgment on behalf of the committee."The Office of Congressional Ethics is compelled to take up any complaint from any citizens and potentially refer it to the House Ethics Committee. The Ethics Committee can either decide to take up the matter or dismiss it. In this case, the panel decided to "extend the matter."The congresswoman has been the subject of scrutiny since coming into office. Last year, she was hit with an ethics complaint over her attendance at the Met Gala in New York. It was alleged that she broke House rules by accepting free tickets to the event, which brings out celebrities and public figures each year. Tickets to the Met Gala cost at least $30,000, The Associated Press reported.
House Democrats pick former CIA agent Spanberger for leadership post -- Former CIA agent Abigail Spanberger was elected to a leadership position in the House Democratic caucus Wednesday, chosen by a 30-22 vote to represent Democratic members of Congress in closely contested “battleground” districts. Spanberger is the first of the group of military-intelligence veterans who entered the House of Representatives in 2018 to win a position in the leadership. Eleven “CIA Democrats” were elected that year, and with some subtractions and additions, the number has grown to 13 as of the November 8 election. The election in a caucus that comprises one quarter of the Democratic members of the House of Representatives confirms the assessment by the World Socialist Web Site that the midterm elections have set the stage for a further shift to the right by the Democratic Party and the Biden administration. This has already been demonstrated in practice, as Congress has swiftly passed legislation to impose a contract on rail workers and bar them from striking. At the same time, the House of Representatives has ratified a further vast increase in the US military budget, which includes massive US financing of the war in Ukraine against Russia. Spanberger defeated Matt Cartwright, a four-term representative from northeastern Pennsylvania, in what amounted to a straight right-left contest as these terms are defined within the Democratic Party. Cartwright is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, while Spanberger has enlisted in all three of the groups for the most right-wing Democrats: the New Democrat caucus, the Blue Dog caucus, and the bipartisan Problem Solvers caucus. The former CIA agent became one of the more notorious right-wing figures among House Democrats when she denounced the political impact of the mass protests against the police murder of George Floyd, claiming that the slogan “defund the police” had been a major factor in the Democrats losing a dozen close House contests in 2020. This argument effectively accepted the attacks of the congressional Republicans and their corporate and far-right backers, since no Democrat actually ran on the slogan—in reality, the party backpedaled away from the protests against police killings as fast as it could. Spanberger combined her defense of police killings with a broadside against socialism, in the tepid and entirely rhetorical version espoused by Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and other members of the House affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America. On a conference call of House Democrats after the 2020 election, Spanberger declared, “We need to not ever use the word ‘socialist’ or ‘socialism’ ever again,” adding that the party would get “fucking torn apart in 2022” if it did not suppress policies such as Medicare for All. In 2021, after Republican candidates won the statewide contests in Virginia and took control of the state assembly, Spanberger publicly complained about the “leftist” policies of the Biden administration which she claimed had sparked a right-wing backlash. “Nobody elected him to be FDR,” she said. “They elected him to be normal and stop the chaos.”
Supreme Court tackles Biden student loan plan - The fate of the Biden administration’s sweeping student loan forgiveness plan now rests with the Supreme Court. That may be bad news for borrowers, say legal and higher education experts. “The court’s conservatives have been very aggressive in striking down the decisions of Congress and the president,” said Gregory Caldeira, a political science professor at Ohio State University. “I would not be surprised if the court invalidated the executive order.” Higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz agreed. “The U.S. Supreme Court is more likely than not to block the president’s student loan forgiveness plan,” Kantrowitz said. The highest court decided to take the case after the U.S. Department of Justice filed an emergency application asking the justices to lift the injunction on its forgiveness plan that had been issued by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit, in St. Louis, at the request of six GOP-led states. The justices, who will decide whether or not the president’s debt relief policy causes harm to the plaintiffs or is an overreach of executive authority, said they would hear oral arguments in February. In August, Preisdent Joe Biden announced that the U.S. Department of Education would deliver student loan forgiveness of up to $20,000 for tens of millions of Americans. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the plan will cost around $400 billion. Unsurprisingly, the legal challenges poured in. At least six lawsuits have been brought against the president’s plan. The administration closed its portal where borrowers could apply for the relief last month, although 26 million people had already requested it. “The benefit of the Supreme Court ruling is that it will settle, for now, all of the litigation related to the loan forgiveness,” said Dan Urman, a law professor at Northeastern University. For a number of reasons, Urman predicts the Supreme Court will rule against Biden. He said the conservative justices believe government agencies exert too much authority and “violate the separation of powers.” In addition, he said, the concept of loan forgiveness seems to run counter to their notions of individual responsibility. Such a politically fueled decision, however, is likely to further damage the public’s perception of the Supreme Court, Urman said.
Jacobin promotes student debt bankruptcy - In an attempt to provide political cover for the Biden administration’s student loan relief debacle, the Democratic Socialists of America’s semi-official magazine Jacobin is presenting bankruptcy as a solution to student debt. On November 18, it published an article by Julia Rock titled, “Joe Biden Is Finally Moving Toward Allowing Bankruptcy to Eliminate Student Debt.” With Biden’s very modest plan to allow student borrowers to write off $10,000-$20,000 in government-held loans blocked by Republican-backed court suits, the administration is attempting to sugar-coat its refusal to make a serious effort to provide relief for millions of students burdened by crushing debt by ending its opposition to the discharge of a portion of student debt through the bankruptcy process. Students are evidently expected to be grateful for the chance, compliments of the Democratic Party, to go into bankruptcy to avoid penury and homelessness. The vast majority of students will not see it that way. Instead, they will rightly see this inducement to declare bankruptcy as an insult and a provocation. They are well aware that when it comes to bailing out billionaire tax-evaders and speculators, both big business parties spare no expense. Example: the bipartisan CARES Act, passed with record speed when the pandemic torpedoed the stock market in the spring of 2020. That act of charity for the rich funneled trillions of dollars to the banks, corporations and investment houses. This week has seen another example of bipartisan action in Congress effected with blinding speed—despite the near-civil war atmosphere in Washington—to block rail workers from exercising their right to strike and impose a slave’s charter contract backed by the rail companies, overriding the votes of tens of thousands of rail workers who voted against it. There, the heroes of the DSA and the so-called “progressive” wing of the Democratic Party—including Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez—played the critical role in ensuring passage of the dictatorial anti-strike measure. Similarly, these pseudo-left representatives of the privileged middle class are rushing to declare the administration’s modest easing of Department of Justice (DoJ) rules in relation to student bankruptcy to be a “victory.” The article by Julia Rock favorably cites Elizabeth Warren, who claims, “The Biden administration has taken an important step forward to reform a deeply broken bankruptcy system that has made it nearly impossible for Americans to deal with student debt, even when they’re in severe financial stress.” The administration, in addition to extending the student loan pause initiated under Trump until June 2023, directed the DoJ to soften its policy of opposing student debt discharge in bankruptcy court. The department issued a release stating: “Although the bankruptcy judge makes the final decision whether to grant a discharge, the new process announced today provides Justice Department attorneys with clear standards for recommending discharge to the judge without unnecessarily burdensome and time-consuming investigations.”
Student debt relief brings 'major questions' back to SCOTUS - A brewing Supreme Court battle over student debt relief could offer the justices their next chance to define which federal policies are vulnerable to legal challenges like the one that killed the Obama administration’s landmark power plant emissions rule. In a short order Thursday, the justices granted the Biden administration’s request to review a lower court’s freeze on the president’s plan to forgive between $10,000 and $20,000 in federal student loan debt for eligible borrowers. The court will hear arguments in the expedited case in February 2023. Nebraska, Missouri and other red state challengers have asked the courts to strike down President Joe Biden’s debt relief plan using the “major questions” doctrine, which says federal agencies cannot regulate matters of “vast economic and political significance” without clear authorization from Congress. It’s the same theory the justices used in their June ruling in West Virginia v. EPA to scrap the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan. “There’s definitely a pattern now where, to litigants, everything’s a major question,” said Robert Percival, director of the environmental law program at the University of Maryland. “If you don’t like something, yell the mantra of major questions, and if the court doesn’t like it, they’ll get rid of it.” The student debt case, Biden v. Nebraska, could show how far the Supreme Court is willing to take major questions challenges. Though the doctrine existed prior to West Virginia, many legal observers say the justices’ use of it in the climate case may have created a new path for opponents of federal regulation (Greenwire, June 30). Percival said the justices may use the student debt case to place guardrails on major questions lawsuits. Unlike other policies — like the Clean Power Plan — that have faced challenges under the doctrine, Biden’s loan relief program does not impose costs or rules on businesses or individuals. Instead, it says the government will not collect debts that are owed to it. Moreover, the Biden administration has argued,, Congress provided in the 2003 Higher Education Relief Opportunities for Students Act that the head of the Department of Education is authorized to take steps to ensure that federal borrowers affected by a national emergency — like the Covid-19 pandemic — do not face harm due to their debt. “This will help show whether there are any limits to major questions because the government has a strong argument that this is different from any of the past cases,” said Percival. Jared Kelson, an attorney at the firm Boyden Gray & Associates, said the justices may not see a distinction between the student loan fight and prior major questions cases. “The solicitor general in Biden v. Nebraska tries to narrow the scope of the major questions doctrine by arguing that past cases all involved an assertion of regulatory authority, not lifting requirements on government benefit programs,” Kelson said in an emailed statement. “But that may be a distinction without a difference, since lifting requirements on government benefit programs can be just as economically and politically significant as any government regulation.” It’s also possible that the Supreme Court won’t address the doctrine in its consideration of the student debt case, said Devin Watkins, an attorney for the Competitive Enterprise Institute, which has raised major questions challenges against other Biden administration policies in the wake of West Virginia.
Supreme Court hears case of website refusing gay marriage work - The Supreme Court heard arguments Monday in a case involving a Colorado web design company whose desire to avoid doing work for same-sex weddings runs afoul of the state’s public accommodation anti-discrimination law.Conservative justices appeared sympathetic to First Amendment arguments made by a lawyer for the design company’s owner. But liberal justices clearly feared that a ruling on her behalf would crack open the door to legalizing businesses denying goods and services not just to LGBTQ people, but also to other minority groups. The court will likely decide the case by next spring or early summer. Conservatives hold six of the nine justice seats on the bench. “What’s the limiting line of yours?” Justice Sonia Sotomayor asked Kristen Waggoner, the lawyer for company owner Lorie Smith, an evangelical Christian opposed to gay marriage. “How about people who don’t believe in an interracial marriage?” asked Sotomayor, a liberal, as she sat feet away from conservative Justice Clarence Thomas, a Black man who is married to a white woman. “Or about people who don’t believe that disabled should get married? Where’s the line?” she asked. “I choose to serve whom I want to disagree with, their personal characteristics like race or disability? I can choose not to sell to those people?” Waggoner objected to that idea. “I’m not saying that at all,” Waggoner said. The lawyer argued that Colorado’s law would force Smith to engage in speech by creating a website for weddings that she objects to personally. Waggoner contended that compulsion violates the First Amendment of the Constitution, which protects the right to speech. “Every page [of the website] is my client’s message,” Waggoner said. “The announcement of the wedding itself is a concept that she believes to be false,” the lawyer said. Thomas, while questioning Colorado Solicitor General Eric Olson, who was defending the state’s law, suggested that Smith’s argument for refusing to create content for people in a protected class is what makes the case different from other businesses refusing to accept minorities as customers. “This is not a hotel. This is not a restaurant. This is not a riverboat or a train,” Thomas noted to Olson. “I’m interested in the intersection of public accommodations law and speech.” Olson conceded that what “we don’t see over the long history of public accommodation laws in this country is people raising First Amendment speech objections to those laws.” Olson added, “What we don’t see is a history of public accommodation laws carving out speech. They all are laws of general applicability that apply to all those operating a trade to the public. They don’t say ‘except those engaged in expressive conduct.’” The lawyer argued that “the free speech clause exemption the company seeks here is sweeping.” “Because it would apply not just to sincerely held religious beliefs, like those of the company and its owner, but also to all sorts of racist, sexist and bigoted views,” Olson said.
Conservative justices show sympathy for case that could undercut LGBTQ rights - The Supreme Court’ s conservative majority seemed to be searching Monday for a way to allow religious business owners to opt out of providing certain kinds of services to same-sex couples, while avoiding overturning decades of precedents that prohibit discrimination among customers based on factors like race or gender. By the end of nearly two-and-a-half hours of arguments over a case involving a Colorado web designer who opposes same-sex marriage on religious grounds, the justices seemed likely to back the designer, but precisely how the court will constrain its ruling to avoid broader effects remained unclear. Much of the high court hearing focused on what constitutes speech and who is doing the speaking, specifically whether designer Lorie Smith’s plan for websites that announce weddings for her clients and display their individual stories represent her own speech as the creator. Smith’s counsel asserts that her refusal to create wedding websites for same-sex couples is message-based, while the defense argues the website designer’s rejection constitutes status-based discrimination. Smith is an evangelical Christian opposed to same-sex marriage on religious grounds, but her counsel on Monday mounted her challenge as a defense of free speech rather than religious freedom, after the high court essentially jettisoned the religious-rights element of the case. Smith’s lawyers contend that Colorado law violates the First Amendment by essentially compelling her to engage in speech she doesn’t agree with. “When you are requiring a speaker to create a message to celebrate something they believe to be false, you are compelling their speech, and it’s affecting their message,” said Kristen Waggoner of the Alliance Defense Freedom, which represents Smith and her business, 303 Creative. The three Democratic-appointed justices pushed back on Waggoner’s argument that creating a wedding website for her clients publishes the designer’s own speech, since the websites created for many of her clients feature identical language, save for swapping out the couples’ names. The websites feature a couple’s photos and stories, not the website designer’s story, Justice Sonia Sotomayor said. “Show me a page on that website that is an endorsement of a marriage as opposed to the story of a couple,” Sotomayor said to Waggoner. The lawyer argued back that the websites her client creates are an invitation to celebrate a marriage, and that when you switch out a heterosexual couple’s names for a same-sex couple’s names, “you are switching out the concept and the message that is actually in the website.” “In the same way that it is a message of a ghost writer who writes for an anonymous press release or a book,” Waggoner said. “It is still that writer’s speech.” LGBTQ rights advocates say Smith and her business should be treated like any other business and required to serve customers without regard to their sexuality. The speech at issue in the case is that of same-sex couples, not businesspeople like Smith, gay rights lawyers argue. The state of Colorado on Monday presented an argument to the high court centered on its public accommodation law, which the state’s solicitor general asserted does compel Smith to provide wedding website services to same-sex couples since she would provide the exact same service to heterosexual couples. To not provide service to a same-sex couple simply because of their sexual orientation would be a form of status-based discrimination in violation of public accommodation law, Colorado argued. “What the company said is under no circumstances will they provide a wedding website for a same-sex wedding, and that is status-based discrimination,” Colorado Solicitor General Eric Olson said. But the web designer’s counsel argued the opposite — that Smith’s refusal to create wedding websites for same-sex couples is message-based, not status-based, since she does provide services for LGBTQ people in other circumstances. When Sotomayor suggested that Smith’s refusal of service was not based on the nature of the message but on the individual who was requesting service, Waggoner said that wasn’t a “fair characterization.” “The stipulated facts in this case are that Ms. Smith has LGBT clients. She serves them regularly. She has all kinds of clients,” Waggoner said.
Hypotheticals gone wild: Takeaways from the LGBTQ Supreme Court arguments - - The Supreme Court’s latest foray into the clash between the rights of LGBTQ people and religiously devout businesspeople proved to be both colorful and contentious. Arguments in the case of Colorado web designer Lorie Smith and her fight against the state’s laws barring discrimination against same-sex couples were slated to last just over an hour but stretched to nearly two-and-a-half hours, as the justices grilled lawyers about the potentially broad ramifications of allowing Smith to deny service for same-sex weddings. Conservative justices seemed inclined to back Smith, but it remained uncertain how they would buttress such a decision against inevitable claims that it will lead to other businesspeople trying to use free speech or religious beliefs to opt out of providing services based on race, religion or other criteria protected by anti-discrimination laws. Officially, the case pits a religious businessperson against the state’s desire to protect LGBTQ people, but the arguments before the justices Monday seemed to come back again and again to that subject that infects so many Washington conversations: politics. On at least five occasions, lawyers sought to compare or contrast the designer’s predicament with a political partisan being forced to take up arms — or at least wield a pen — for the opposition. “Under Colorado’s theory, jurisdictions could force a Democrat publicist to write a Republican’s press release,” Smith’s attorney, Kristen Waggoner, said. “No one should be compelled to speak a message.” LGBTQ rights advocates contend Smith’s refusal to design a website for a same-sex wedding is discrimination because the site could be the same speech in all significant respects as one for an opposite-sex couple. Waggoner disagreed, contending that the designer should be free to choose which clients to provide or not provide the service for. The lawyer seized on another political example to argue that a singer or musician shouldn’t be forced to put on a more-or-less identical performance if he or she doesn’t agree with the message the audience might take away.
When a justice starts making jokes about a Black child wearing a KKK outfit as a hypothetical, something has gone incredibly awry.- For those who are increasingly frustrated by the fact that the Supreme Court is in possession of a conservative supermajority hellbent on expanding the rights of some plaintiffs (Christians, businesses, and gun owners, for example) while chiseling away the rights of others (Indian tribes, pregnant people, and public school students, for example), oral arguments have been maddening. Specifically, the way in which the court’s conservatives ignore and diminish the latter groups’ rights and interests in favor of the former groups’ is getting ever harder to listen to. If you persistently tell only one side of the story with empathy and grace, that story tends to carry the day.Whether it was Justice Samuel Alito dissolving women’s economic and health interests into a pile of powder in Dobbs, or Justice Neil Gorsuch forgetting about the nonreligious student athletes in the “praying coach” case last term, the secret sauce here is to make the actual names and actual faces and actual suffering of the parties in any case about competing rights as small as possible, because then it is easier to rule against them and act like the consequences will be minimal. In 303 Creative v. Elenis, a case testing whether the free speech rights of a web designer who wants to withhold her services from gay couples is in violation of that state’s public accommodations law, the conservative justices go one better: They completely vaporize the interests of same-sex couples seeking wedding services altogether. After all, as professor Hila Keren reminded us on this week’s Amicus podcast, there are no suffering parties on the other side of this appeal. There are no names and faces of couples refused services and forced to endure the humiliation of being told that their marriage is in fact “false” (the word used by Alliance Defending Freedom’s lawyer at argument). This case has no Charlie Craig and no Dave Mullins, the couple denied services in front of a horrified parent in a cake shop. There is only one face in this case—Lorie Smith, the web designer who has never made a wedding website for anyone, much less withheld a proposed wedding website from anyone due to their sexuality. (She just already knows that she will want to do that. Really!) The result of this framing, which is certainly intentional on the part of Lorie Smith’s legal representation, is that we have no names, no faces, no pressing dignitary interests to bolster the state of Colorado’s compelling interest in fighting anti-gay discrimination. There is no trial record and there are no facts, and instead there is just a whole lot of spitballing about things that could happen someday in a comedic civil-rights-free galaxy far, far away. And what rushes in to fill the vacuum is a host of increasingly deranged hypotheticals, and also what now passes for high comedy at the Supreme Court. Let me say it again: It is one thing to diminish the interests and the pain of the parties you don’t care about in Hobby Lobby, in gun cases, in COVID cases. It’s something rather different to make fun of them.Among some of the one-liners you may have missed, were you not tuned in to the arguments:
- • Justice Samuel Alito joking that Justice Elena Kagan might be more familiar than he is with the website AshleyMadison.com, in a hypothetical about professional photographers. Ashley Madison, of course, holds itself out as a meeting place for customers seeking to have extramarital affairs. Alito opened with, “JDate … is a dating service, I gather, for Jewish people … Maybe Justice Kagan will also be familiar with the next website I’m going to mention, AshleyMadison.com …” “I’m not suggesting,” Alito chuckled. “She knows a lot of things.”
- • Alito responding to a Ketanji Brown Jackson hypothetical about an all-white Christmas photography package (asking whether it would be discriminatory, which it would be) with his own hypothetical, bizarrely about a Black Santa at the mall who is faced somehow with a child dressed up in a KKK outfit. Alito is trying to probe whether Black Santa should not have to be photographed with the KKK kid: Haha. “If there is a Black Santa at the other end of the mall and he doesn’t want to have his picture taken with a child who is dressed up in a Ku Klux Klan outfit, Black Santa has to do that?” he asked. The spectators laughed uneasily as Alito joked: “You do see a lot of Black children in Ku Klux Klan outfits, right? All the time.” See, if everyone’s dignity and humiliation is hilarious, then nobody’s is serious.
Supreme Court seems poised to reject robust reading of ‘independent state legislature’ theory – -- The Supreme Court on Wednesday struggled to find consensus about a legal theory that could strip state courts’ ability to review election laws passed by legislatures, but a critical bloc of justices seemed likely to reject the most robust version of that theory that could unleash dramatic change in how states oversee elections. The case, Moore v. Harper, involves North Carolina’s congressional map. There, the state Supreme Court tossed the maps drawn by the GOP-controlled Legislature as an illegal partisan gerrymander, with court-drawn maps ultimately being used for the 2022 election.Republican legislators asked the U.S. Supreme Court to toss out those court-drawn maps, advancing a once-fringe legal idea called the “independent state legislature” theory, which argues that an interpretation of a clause in the U.S. Constitution leaves little — or no — room for state court review of election laws.The spotlight for Wednesday’s oral arguments was focused on three of the high court’s six conservative justices: Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh.Those three justices will likely serve as the deciding factor in any decision. The court’s three liberals were extremely hostile to the theory during oral arguments, while the three other conservatives have signaled sympathy for a muscular version of the theory, both in previous writings and during arguments in front of the court on Wednesday.That left Roberts, Barrett and Kavanaugh as the justices who would likely be the backbone of any controlling opinion out of the court. As in some other recent arguments, they appeared eager to buck perceptions that they’re on a mission to advance doctrinaire legal interpretations that could upend decades or even centuries of standard practice in American elections.Questioning from Roberts to David Thompson, who was representing the Republican legislators, showed hostility to the independent state legislature theory.“Vesting the power to veto the actions of the legislature significantly undermines the argument that it can do whatever it wants,” Roberts said, citing a 1930s Supreme Court case that found that the U.S. Constitution didn’t prohibit governors from vetoing a congressional map passed by legislatures.Kavanaugh’s and Barrett’s questions to Thompson were less revealing than those from Roberts. But Kavanaugh seemingly suggested that the version of the independent state legislature theory advanced by the North Carolina lawmakers was going too far. He noted that North Carolina was trying to go further than then-Chief Justice William Rehnquist’s concurrence in the 2000 case Bush v. Gore, which is the origin of the theory that state courts have overstepped their role and that they could be hemmed in in some way.
Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett is likely to block a GOP attack on democracy, in Moore v. Harper - A group of North Carolina Republican lawmakers asked the Court to embrace a deranged reading of the federal Constitution in order to force the state to adopt gerrymandered congressional maps. But that reading would, as former acting Solicitor General Neal Katyal told the justices on Wednesday, require them to strike down hundreds of state constitutional provisions protecting voting rights, limiting gerrymandering, and otherwise governing how elections are conducted. Worse, prior to Wednesday, four of the Court’s Republican appointees had already endorsed versions of this misreading of the Constitution, which is known as the “independent state legislature doctrine” (ISLD). On Wednesday, however, Trump-appointed Justice Amy Coney Barrett tossed cold water on the North Carolina GOP’s hopes that a majority of the justices would wholesale adopt this long-discredited theory. There is still a risk that the Court could adopt a milder version of the ISLD, in effect making itself the final arbiter of some election cases it doesn’t currently have jurisdiction over. But if you were alarmed by Moore’s potential to eviscerate fair elections in the United States, after today you can probably dial back that alarm to mere concern.The ISLD derives from two provisions of the Constitution which state that the rules governing congressional and presidential elections shall be determined by each state’s “legislature.” More than a century of Supreme Court decisions hold that the word “legislature,” when used in this context, refers to whatever institutions in a state have the power to make laws — that is, not just the state’s house and senate, but also, for example, a governor with a veto power — and a bevy of dictionaries published around the time when the Constitution was drafted also define the word “legislature” as the Supreme Court has historically defined it. The strongest form of the independent state legislature theory claims that all of these precedents are wrong, and that state governors, state courts, and state constitutions must be cut out of the process of determining how federal elections are conducted. As Justice Neil Gorsuch wrote in a 2020 concurring opinion endorsing the ISLD, “the Constitution provides that state legislatures — not federal judges, not state judges, not state governors, not other state officials — bear primary responsibility for setting election rules.”At Wednesday’s argument, however, only Gorsuch — who spent an astounding amount of time drawing out a bizarre and often incomprehensible theory that the ISLD is an anti-racist doctrine that prevents state lawmakers from counting Black people as three-fifths of a person, as the US Constitution originally counted enslaved people — was openly sympathetic to very strong versions of the ISLD. Even Justice Samuel Alito, the Court’s most reliable Republican partisan, conceded that state courts must play some role in determining how elections are conducted, as it is their job to resolve disputes over how to interpret state election law.
DOJ warns Supreme Court against ‘overly broad’ Section 230 reading in Google case - The Department of Justice (DOJ) is warning the Supreme Court against using an “overly broad” interpretation of a provision that provides tech companies a legal liability shield over content posted by third parties. The DOJ issued the warning in a brief about a case relating to Google that could change how digital content is hosted online, with the department effectively undermining the tech giant’s argument in the case. The dispute centers on whether the liability shield — Section 230 of the Common Decency Act — protects Google in a case alleging the company recommended ISIS recruitment videos to users on its YouTube subsidiary. A lower appeals court said the liability shield protects Google, a ruling the DOJ is urging the Supreme Court to vacate. Although Section 230 protects YouTube over liability for hosting or “failing to remove” ISIS-related content, the DOJ asserted Thursday, it does not over claims based on YouTube’s “own conduct in designing and implementing its targeted-recommendation algorithms.” “The Court should give Section 230(c)(1) a fair reading, with no thumb on the scale in favor of either a broad or a narrow construction,” the DOJ said in a brief led by acting solicitor general Brian Fletcher. The DOJ did not take a position on whether Google should ultimately be found liable, but recommended the case be returned to the lower court for further review. The case is based on allegations against Google raised by the family of Nohemi Gonzalez, a 23-year old U.S. citizen killed in a 2015 Islamic State terror attack in France. Gonzalez’s family alleges YouTube provided a platform for terrorist content and recommended content inciting violence and recruiting potential supporters through its recommendation algorithm.
Trump calls for “termination” of US Constitution to restore him to power -Donald Trump called for the “termination” of the US Constitution in order to return him to power and throw out the results of the 2020 election, in an outburst on his social media platform Truth Social. Trump was responding to a report by new Twitter owner Elon Musk that the social media site had blocked distribution in October 2020 of a New York Post report on Hunter Biden, son of Joe Biden. Trump claimed the actions by Twitter had decided the outcome of the presidential election. “Do you throw the Presidential Election Results of 2020 OUT and declare the RIGHTFUL WINNER, or do you have a NEW ELECTION? A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution,” he wrote, adding, “Our great ‘Founders’ did not want, and would not condone, False & Fraudulent Elections!” Both the Post article and the decision of Twitter to block its distribution for several days are well known and were widely reported in the days leading up to the November 2020 election. Trump’s claim that this constituted some sort of decisive media and FBI intervention to affect the outcome of the vote is not only fraudulent, it is absurd. It comes after two years in which Trump has claimed that the vote-counting itself was rigged, either by ballot-stuffing by Democratic Party operatives or through the use of software that switched Trump votes to Biden. The Hunter Biden “suppression” claim has not been part of the “stolen election” narrative, so Trump’s sudden elevation of the issue has a certain bizarre and desperate quality. Far more important than the particular trigger is the content of Trump’s declaration that the Constitution should be set aside to restore him to power, and the response to it in official Washington, both from Republicans and Democrats and in the corporate-controlled media. In one sense, Trump’s reference to the Constitution amounts to an admission that his demand in January 2021 that Vice President Pence set aside the electoral votes for Biden in six “battleground states” that Biden narrowly won was unconstitutional. Pence refused to either award the six states’ electoral votes to Trump or set them aside entirely, claiming, correctly even though at the last minute, that he had no authority under the Constitution to do so.
Trump digs deeper hole with Constitution comments - Former President Trump keeps digging a deeper hole for himself in just the first few weeks of his latest bid for the White House. Trump, who last week drew condemnation from several high-profile conservatives for dining with a white nationalist, found himself in hot water again over the weekend when he claimed fresh talk of Twitter’s handling of a controversial story about Hunter Biden meant parts of the Constitution should be disregarded so he could return to the White House. Some Republicans already viewed Trump skeptically after many of his hand-picked candidates in key Senate and gubernatorial races lost their elections last month. The latest controversies risk accelerating calls for the party to look elsewhere moving forward. “If you’re one of these other people who’s interested [in] running this year, this is certainly an opportunity to create some contrast,” Sen. John Thune (S.D.), the second-ranking Senate Republican, said Monday, calling it “grist” for potential challengers. An Economist-YouGov poll released last week showed Trump at 36 percent and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) at 30 percent in a potential GOP primary field, a fairly narrow margin for a former president. Trump is less than a month into his 2024 bid for the White House, a campaign launched with his grip on the GOP at an ebb because of underwhelming midterm results. His most notable moments since launching the campaign have underscored the risks many Republicans see in nominating him for a third time. Last week, Trump was in hot water after he hosted the rapper Ye, formerly Kanye West, who has espoused antisemitic views. Ye and Trump were joined at their dinner at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort by Nick Fuentes, a known white nationalist and Holocaust denier. This week, Trump is again at the center of controversy over his response to internal Twitter communications that showed company officials in 2020 discussing their decision to limit the spread of a New York Post story that contained allegations about President Biden’s son Hunter Biden. Trump has seized on the internal communications, which were shared with select individuals by Twitter owner Elon Musk, to claim the 2020 election was fraudulent and therefore should be redone or that he should be declared the winner. “A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution,” Trump posted on Truth Social, suggesting there should either be a new election or he should be declared the winner retroactively. On Monday, amid extensive coverage of Trump’s comments over the weekend, the former president claimed he did not want to “terminate” the Constitution, but he stood by his belief that there should be a do-over of the 2020 election or that he should be returned to the White House.
Senate Republicans turn on Trump over suspend-the-Constitution talk - Senate Republicans are slowly but surely distancing themselves from Donald Trump after a call to terminate the Constitution and a meeting with antisemites — though there’s no sign any will start actively opposing his 2024 campaign. The former president’s campaign launch is landing with a thud among Republican leaders, many of whom began losing interest after his loss to Joe Biden and are now openly pining for a crowded primary field to take on Trump. That hope for intraparty competition is a flashback to the opening days of the 2016 election, except this time Trump has baggage ranging from stoking an insurrection to a sitdown with Ye and white nationalist Nick Fuentes to his latest call to illegally unwind his 2020 defeat. As polls show Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) competitive with Trump and many other Republicans eye a run against him, some in the GOP think Trump might even end up pulling the plug on his nascent campaign. “I just think, in the end, he will not end up running because [of] the polling,” said retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio). “The trend line is not positive.” Trump on Saturday falsely cited “massive fraud” in his 2020 loss before calling for a “termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution” in order to reinstate him as president or hold a new election. That comment, Portman said, “makes no sense.” Many election officials, including Trump’s own former attorney general, have affirmed that no voter fraud occurred on a scale significant enough to affect Biden’s victory over Trump. And spending yet another year litigating 2020 is too much for some party leaders. “I’m at a loss for words. We need to move on,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), an adviser to McConnell, said of the constitutional-suspension posts from the former president. Cornyn added that the prospect of Trump winning the nomination is “increasingly less likely, given statements like that.” While few Republicans spoke out publicly before returning to Washington on Monday, Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) said “of course I disagree with that” when asked about Trump’s comments. The No. 2 Senate Republican would not say whether he’d support Trump if the former president wins the GOP nomination in 2024 and said he’s “just not going to go there at this point — that’s a long way off.” But Thune did predict Trump’s remarks would fuel the ambitions of Republicans who’d want to take on the former president in a 2024 primary: “It’s just one of those intuitively obvious things, whether a candidate for office has sort of a bedrock principle, ‘are you going to support the Constitution?’” Thune said. “For him, it’s not all that unusual. But it will be the grist and plenty of fodder for those that are looking to get into that race.”
Jan. 6 panel reaches ‘general agreement’ on criminal referrals to DOJ - The House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol has come to a “general agreement” to forward some criminal referrals to the Justice Department, its chair told reporters Tuesday. It was a confusing morning at the Capitol, with Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) walking back statements he made earlier in the day when he told reporters “we will” be making criminal referrals. “We’re not there yet,” Thompson said later, adding that the earlier “gaggle [with reporters] was wrong.” The panel will meet later on Tuesday to discuss the issue, following a Friday presentation from a subcommittee of the committee’s four lawyers, who were tasked with tying up unfinished business, including how to address any recommendations to the Justice Department. “The Committee has determined that referrals to outside entities should be considered as a final part of its work. The committee will make decisions about specifics in the days ahead,” a committee spokesperson said in a statement. The chairman of that subcommittee, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) told reporters they were still making progress on the topic, while Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), another member of that panel, said a formal announcement on referrals could come as soon as this week. “We’re nearing the end of our work,” she said. Referrals to the Justice Department would hardly be surprising from a committee that has made clear it believes numerous crimes were committed in the effort to block the transfer of power that culminated in the lawless attack on the Capitol. The committee also previously made four referrals for those it argued defied its congressional subpoenas. But the breadth of the referrals — as well as the specific crimes they list — could be illuminating, particularly as the Justice Department’s Jan. 6 investigation appears to be accelerating.
January 6 Committee considers sending criminal referrals to Justice Department targeting Trump, others - Members of the January 6 House Select Committee charged with investigating the attack on the Capitol have announced that they will consider sending at least five criminal referrals to the Department of Justice (DoJ). In multiple interviews this week, committee members have confirmed they are considering referrals for former President Donald Trump and four high-level accomplices. President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Cecil Airport, Thursday, Sept. 24, 2020, in Jacksonville, Florida. [AP Photo/Evan Vucci] The co-conspirators include former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, former DoJ lawyer Jeffrey Clark and Trump coup lawyers John Eastman and Rudy Giuliani. None of the five Republicans have yet to be criminally charged for their actions related to the January 6, 2021, storming of the Capitol. The Justice Department is not obligated to act on any criminal referrals sent by the committee. Attorney General Merrick Garland has yet to give a public explanation as to why the DoJ refused to act on two earlier criminal referrals sent by Congress. Those referrals targeted Meadows and former Trump communications director Dan Scavino for contempt of Congress. Congress has no authority to levy criminal charges against persons or entities they investigate. However, a criminal referral is politically significant, especially if it accuses Trump and high-level advisers of felony charges such as blocking the certification of the election. As Trump’s chief of staff, Meadows was deeply involved in the coup. Text messages he previously turned over to the committee show that Meadows interacted with all the major players, including life-long Republican operative Virginia Thomas, wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. California lawyer Eastman was interviewed by the committee earlier this year concerning the legal advice he gave Trump leading up to and on January 6, but he refused to answer the committee’s questions, instead invoking his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination. Federal Judge David Carter has twice this year ruled against efforts by Eastman to withhold emails from the committee. In his March ruling, Carter wrote that emails Eastman sought to block had to be turned over because they showed evidence of a crime, and that Trump and Eastman “more likely than not committed obstruction … and conspiracy to defraud the United States.” In his October ruling, again ruling against Eastman’s efforts to block the emails, Carter said Eastman’s emails “are sufficiently related to and in furtherance of a conspiracy to defraud the United States.” Former DoJ lawyer Clark has already had his home raided by FBI agents and his cell phone taken in connection with the ongoing investigation into the coup. A low-level environmental lawyer at the Department of Justice in December 2020, Clark was picked to replace then-acting Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen on January 3, 2021, after he indicated to Trump that he would be willing to weaponize the DoJ in furtherance of Trump’s coup by sending letters to state legislatures warning them not to certify the election due to possible fraud. As Trump’s one-time personal attorney, Giuliani lead Trump’s legal efforts to overturn the election, filing bogus lawsuits alleging all manner of voter fraud and illegality, with no evidence to back up the allegations. In an interview with Politico published on Thursday, the chairman of the Select Committee, Rep. Bennie Thompson (Democrat-Mississippi), said the committee would meet this Sunday to formally decide whether to issue the criminal referrals, with Thompson and others indicating that they would support doing so. “I think the more we looked at the body of evidence that we collected,” Thompson told Politico, “we just felt that while we’re not in the business of investigating people for criminal activities, we just couldn’t overlook some of them.”
Americans Dumbed Down On Russia - Five years ago today, Congress learned from sworn, horse’s-mouth testimony that there is no technical evidence that Russia (or anyone else) hacked the DNC emails showing how the DNC had stacked the deck against Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton’s rival for the Democratic nomination. I can almost hear readers new to this website cry out in disbelief: Were U.S. officials and media mistaken? No, not mistaken. They were lying. "But … but, does this mean Special Counsel Robert Mueller knew there was no concrete evidence of Russian hacking just six months into his 22-month investigation into Trump-Russia collusion?" On December 5, 2017, Shawn Henry, head of the cyber security firm CrowdStrike, testified to the House Intelligence Committee that there was no technical evidence that Russia hacked the DNC emails that WikiLeaks published in July 2016. CrowdStrike had been hired by the DNC and the Clinton campaign (with the FBI’s blessing) to investigate "Russian hacking". Shawn Henry is a protégé of former FBI Director Robert Mueller (from 2001 to 2012),. What are the chances that Shawn Henry did not keep his former mentor, the Special Counsel, informed of this critical factoid?Why are some of you readers just now learning about this – five years after that testimony? Short answer: Adam Schiff (D, CA), chair of the House Intelligence Committee was able to keep Henry’s unclassified testimony secret from Dec. 5, 2017 until May 7, 2020, when he was forced to release it. Schiff gave the silencer-baton to friends in the corporate media, who have now suppressed Shawn Henry’s testimony for longer than even Schiff could. In sum, five years (and counting) after Henry’s testimony, the corporate media are still keeping viewers/listeners in the dark. Were we Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) not banned from corporate media, those interested in the "hacking" hoax could have learned what was going on by reading our Memorandum "Allegations of Hacking are Baseless", of December 12, 2016 – a year before Shawn Henry, under oath, came clean. Henry’s confession came as no surprise to us. (Updates are available here and here.)
Trump Organization found guilty of tax fraud -- A New York jury on Tuesday found the Trump Organization guilty of tax fraud following a more than monthlong trial. Jurors began deliberating on Monday and returned the guilty verdict on Tuesday afternoon, according to The Associated Press. Former President Trump himself was not on trial, but prosecutors with the Manhattan district attorney’s office showed jurors evidence that Trump had signed off on bonus checks and memos that helped top executives skirt reporting on taxable income. Following the verdict, the Trump Organization could be fined up to $1.6 million. The outcome in the trial, which began in late October, is considered a victory for the Manhattan district attorney’s office. It followed a three-year probe by the office into whether top executives at the company engaged in tax fraud from 2005 to June 2021. Prosecutors rested their case in late November after just eight days of arguments. Much of the prosecution’s case had centered on the testimony of Allen Weisselberg, the Trump Organization’s longtime chief financial officer, and Jeffrey McConney, a senior vice president and controller. Weisselberg was charged with 15 counts of tax evasion last year and pleaded guilty in August. Prosecutors said he evaded $1.76 million in taxes by receiving luxury perks such as rent-free apartments and cars.
Manhattan jury finds Trump family companies guilty on all charges-After a six-week trial, a Manhattan jury needed only one day to find two Trump family businesses guilty on all 17 criminal counts leveled against the organizations. Charges against the Trump Organization and the Trump Payroll Corporation included criminal tax fraud, conspiracy and falsifying business records. To find the organizations guilty, the New York jury had to find that the Trump Organization’s former chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg, or his subordinate, senior vice president and controller Jeffrey McConney, as high agents of the company, acted on behalf of the company to their benefit. Jurors found that the executives at Trump’s companies orchestrated a long-running tax dodge scheme that allowed them access to high-rise apartments, luxury cars and bountiful holiday bonuses, all off the books and tax-free. Weisselberg admitted on the stand and in a previous guilty plea to falsifying business records and keeping a separate set of accounting books in order to hide the expenditures, in the process reducing the tax burden on the companies and on himself. The well-known practice, which is illegal, lasted for decades within the Trump family businesses and is, in fact, pervasive throughout the corporate-financial elite and the capitalist economy as a whole. Major exposures of the financial secrets of the world’s elite have shown that tax evasion and money laundering among the financial oligarchy are not just routine, but ubiquitous. Despite being found guilty on all counts, the Trump Organization was fined only $1.62 million, a fraction of the hundreds of millions of dollars the business reports in yearly revenues and a rounding error compared to Trump’s estimated $3.2 billion net worth as of September 2022, according to Forbes. The verdict is politically significant as it implicates the former president. The Trump Organization was founded by Trump’s fascist father, Fred Trump, and is now, along with the Trump Payroll Corporation, legally a felonious enterprise. The convictions could also be used as evidence in a future criminal trial against Trump. They further jeopardize Trump’s third run for president, which he announced three weeks ago. While Trump himself was not on trial, he was named several times during the proceedings by prosecutors. Following the guilty verdict, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg said the criminal investigation into Trump, which appeared to be winding down earlier this year, remains “active and ongoing.” -
"Utterly False": Musk Blasts New York Times For Hate Speech Report On Twitter -- Twitter owner Elon Musk blasted a New York Times report claiming problematic content and hate speech was on an “unprecedented” rise on the platform following his takeover, countering earlier claims by the billionaire. According to findings by the Center for Countering Digital Hate, the Anti-Defamation League, and other groups, the NY Times reported that slurs against black Americans increased from 1,282 times a day to 3,876 times. Posts against gay men and Jews went from 2,506 times to 3,964, and 61 percent, respectively during the two weeks after Musk bought Twitter.Musk replied in a tweet that the report was “Utterly false.”The NY Times report has, till now, gotten over 44,000 likes, while the Musk response garnered 346,000 likes, and nearly 21,000 retweets.“Elon Musk sent up the Bat Signal to every kind of racist, misogynist and homophobe that Twitter was open for business,” said Imran Ahmed, the chief executive of the Center for Countering Digital Hate, in the report. “They have reacted accordingly.”The outlet said that accounts related to the terrorist group ISIS were coming back on the platform, along with QAnon supporters who have received verification symbols.“This reporting is such garbage,” said Christopher Rufo, a senior fellow and director of the initiative on critical race theory at the Manhattan Institute.“The experience on Twitter is pretty much the same as it was before, plus a few ‘edgy’ accounts being reinstated. The left-wing journalists want to create a false narrative to justify more censorship. It’s transparent and pathetic.”
Most Americans Support Elon Musk’s Efforts to Make Twitter ‘More Free and Transparent’: Poll - A significant portion of American citizens are supportive of industrialist Elon Musk’s efforts to ensure freedom of speech on Twitter, according to a poll by Trafalgar Group and Convention of States.The poll asked respondents whether they support Musk seeking to make Twitter a “more free and transparent platform.” According to the survey, 52.3 percent responded positively, while 31.3 percent were not supportive of Musk’s actions at Twitter. The remaining 16.3 percent were “not sure.” Without the “not sure” option, support for Musk jumped to 62.6 percent, while those against such changes only made up 37.4 percent.Among Democrats, 59.3 percent were against Musk, 23.5 percent were unsure, and just 17.1 percent extended support. Among Republicans, support for Musk’s actions was 84.8 percent, which is the highest in the survey. Only 10.2 percent were unsure about the matter, while just 5 percent rejected Musk’s attempts.As to respondents who are not associated with any party, 54.2 percent extended support to Musk strengthening free speech and transparency on Twitter, while only 30.5 percent rejected such developments. The survey, which saw the participation of 1,085 likely general election voters, was conducted between Nov. 30 and Dec. 3. The poll comes as Musk had admitted last month that Twitter used to have an anti-conservative bias before he took over. “It is objectively the case that ‘conservative’ political candidates were more negatively affected than ‘progressive’ candidates. Anyone using Twitter knows this. Question is simply one of magnitude,” Musk commented in a tweet on Nov. 24.
The Tool of Tools - by James Howard Kunstler - At what point in his arduous take-over of Twitter did Elon Musk realize that the package came with a joker in the deck: James A. Baker, formerly general counsel of the FBI? Did he wonder: what is this guy doing here? Were there any conversations between the two? Or did Mr. Musk just quietly observe his presence at a remove in nervous wonder, as one might, say, upon discovering a scorpion in the corner of his hotel room? Mr. Baker, you understand, was notoriously at the center of the FBI’s FISA court fuckery that got the ball rolling in the Crossfire Hurricane operation, Act One of RussiaGate, as well as the Alpha Bank caper concocted by Hillary Clinton (disclosed this year by special counsel John Durham), and probably every other sedition pie the FBI cooked in its oven in those years, considering Mr. Baker’s position as chief legal advisor to Director Chris Wray. When the alt-news media caught onto Mr. Baker’s nefarious activities, he became inconvenient to the agency, was re-assigned to some nebulous task (polishing Mr. Wray’s cuff links?), and quit in May, 2018. He landed temporarily — or was he, rather, parked out-of-sight? — at the shadowy R Street Institute, an Intel Community cut-out, one of its countless PR channels in the DC Swamp. But then, mysteriously, Mr. Baker got hired by Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey in June of 2020 — the heat of a presidential election — to work under Vijaya Gadde, Twitter’s general counsel (and chief of “legal, policy, and trust” [ha!]), where he remained until just the other day. Is it a stretch to imagine Mr. Baker’s former employer, the FBI — which, let’s face it, operates as a sort of blood-brotherhood — purposely installed Mr. Baker in that sensitive job at Twitter to help “moderate” the national conversation in the central forum that public debate had moved to in our time? If so, he apparently did a crackerjack job, and just at the right time, too, after the FBI discovered, in emails they ripped off Rudolf Giuliani’s purloined cloud account, that Donald Trump’s attorney possessed of a copy of the laptop hard-drive of one Hunter Biden, son of presidential candidate Joe Biden — said computer (the FBI knew full-well by then) being stuffed not just with pornographic photos of crack orgies and other personal infelicities, but also a trove of emails and deal memos laying out a bribery and money-laundering scheme that the younger Biden was running all over Eurasia as a family business. Of course, the FBI had that selfsame computer in its possession for the better part of a year when The New York Post broke the news of its existence days before the election of 2020. In fact, the Bureau had had possession at the very time that Mr. Trump was busy getting impeached for daring to suggest to Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, that the Bidens were involved in some shady business worth investigating with the Kiev-based Burisma gas company. Evidence of that and much much more — including way-bigger shady deals with CCP cut-outs — lay moldering in the laptop the FBI just silently sat on. Isn’t it a little strange that during the dragged-out impeachment ordeal neither Attorney General William Barr nor FBI chief Chris Wray volunteered to Mr. Trump’s legal defense that they held exculpatory evidence on that laptop for the very thing he was impeached on?
Feds sue to block Microsoft’s $69B video game deal - The Federal Trade Commission on Thursday sued to block Microsoft’s purchase of the video game giant Activision Blizzard, maker of the hit games Call of Duty and Candy Crush, arguing the $69 billion deal would harm competition in the video game industry. The lawsuit is the FTC’s biggest move yet under Chair Lina Khan to rein in the power of the world’s largest technology companies. It is also a major black mark for Microsoft, which has positioned itself as a white knight of sorts on antitrust issues in the tech sector after going through its own grueling regulatory antitrust battles around the world more than two decades ago. The lawsuit, filed in the FTC’s in-house administrative court, comes a day after Microsoft executives and the company’s lawyers met with the agency’s three Democratic commissioners in a last ditch effort to defend the deal, according to a person familiar with the discussions who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. Now that the case is pending in the FTC’s in-house court, an administrative judge will preside over a trial, followed by an appeal to the commissioners, who are now walled off from the staff attorneys working on the litigation. The FTC voted, 3-1, to issue the complaint, with all three Democrats — Lina Khan, Alvaro Bedoya and Rebecca Kelly Slaughter — supporting the move, and Republican Christine S. Wilson voting no. POLITICO previously reported that a lawsuit could come as early as December. Central to the FTC’s concerns is whether acquiring Activision would give Microsoft an unfair boost in the video game market. Microsoft’s Xbox is No. 3 behind the industry-leading Sony Interactive Entertainment and its PlayStation console. Sony, however, has emerged as the deal’s primary opponent, telling the FTC and regulators in other countries that if Microsoft made hit games like Call of Duty exclusive to its platforms, Sony would be significantly disadvantaged. On Thursday, the FTC said Microsoft has a history of buying game companies and making key titles exclusive. The agency pointed to the acquisition of ZeniMax, parent company of Bethesda Softworks, and the subsequent move to make several games, including"Starfield” and “Redfall,” Microsoft exclusives “despite assurances it had given to European antitrust authorities that it had no incentive to withhold games from rival consoles.” Brad Smith, the president of Microsoft, said that the company has “been committed since Day One to addressing competition concerns, including by offering earlier this week proposed concessions to the FTC,” adding that “While we believed in giving peace a chance, we have complete confidence in our case and welcome the opportunity to present our case in court.” In a missive to employees, Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick sounded upbeat on Thursday, noting that while news of the suit “sounds alarming,” he remains confident “this deal will close.”
The darkest parts of the internet - Today marks the launch of POLITICO Tech, our new podcast on the politics and policy of technology.I spoke this afternoon with POLITICO’S Mohar Chatterjee, who’s kicking off the podcast with a 10-part limited series exploring “darknet” marketplaces, some of the least regulated parts of the world wide web — a landscape of dubious, often criminal enterprises that’s been known for years, but has consistently frustrated efforts to root it out.We talked about the transcontinental takedown earlier this year of Hydra, a massive Russian-based darknet marketplace, the technology that enabled it and how much farther international law enforcement has to go to stay one step ahead of the world’s cyber criminals. An edited and condensed version of our conversation follows:
DOJ pursues unusual case of car shipping price-fixing and extortion - Federal antitrust and gang prosecutors indicted a dozen people, including a ring leader with alleged ties to Mexico’s Gulf Cartel, on charges of price-fixing, extortion and money laundering involving the shipment of used cars to Mexico, according to an indictment unsealed on Monday. The group, led by Carlos Favian Martinez, led a scheme to fix prices and illegally carve up business between competitors in the market for “transmigrante forwarding agency services,” or the transporting of used cars from the U.S. through Mexico and on to Central America, according to the indictment. The defendants enforced their operation through a pattern of violence and extortion that included beatings and kidnappings; several people were killed. None of the defendants were charged with those deaths. Martinez is the son-in-law of an unnamed Gulf Cartel leader in Mexico, according to the indictment. The case marks a rare departure for the Justice Department’s antitrust division, which is typically focused on civil investigations of mergers and other alleged anticompetitive conduct, as well as white collar crimes involving collusion between rival companies and executives. The Justice Department’s organized crime and gang section also investigated the case, along with the Houston U.S. Attorney’s Office. Also notable is a criminal charge involving a conspiracy to monopolize. Monopolization cases typically involve a single company, and they are commonly discussed in the context of DOJ cases and investigations involving Google and Apple. Until the early 1980s, however, the department would regularly file criminal charges over monopolization. Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter, who heads the antitrust division, has said he wants to revive charging such cases as a crime, and recently secured a guilty plea from a road paving company in Montana. The indictment unsealed Monday accused the 12 people of wide-ranging violence used to force rivals to participate in the price-fixing scheme, including shootouts, beatings and kidnappings.
Republican business group launches ad blitz against credit card reform bill - A new business group led by Republican heavyweights will launch its first seven-figure ad campaign this week. The target: legislation taking aim at a key source of revenue for Visa and Mastercard. The American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce, which has branded itself as an alternative to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, is hoping to gin up opposition to the Credit Card Competition Act, bipartisan legislation that targets the $77 billion banks and payment companies collect from merchants each year whenever consumers swipe their credit cards at checkout. The bill, which has received support from big retailers like Walmart and Target, would require the biggest US banks to offer two competing networks on their cards that retailers could choose between for routing credit card purchases at their stores.
Chinese-linked hackers stole millions in COVID-19 relief benefits: Secret Service - Hackers from a cybercriminal group linked to the Chinese government stole at least $20 million from the U.S. in COVID-19 relief benefits, the first known instance of foreign, state-sponsored actors tied to pandemic fraud, Secret Service officials told NBC News.The officials said that Chengdu-based cyber group APT41 was a “notable player” in its hundreds of open investigations probing pandemic fraud from both transnational and domestic players. APT41 is a “Chinese state-sponsored, cyber threat group that is highly adept at conducting espionage missions and financial crimes for personal gain,” Secret Service officials told the outlet. Since the rollout of pandemic relief money in 2020, billions have been stolen by fraudulent actors across the U.S. and in other parts of the world through the Paycheck Protection Program or expanded unemployment insurance. The Secret Service said in August that it has recovered $286 million in stolen pandemic relief money. Some of the recovered money included funds stolen by APT41, a group that emerged about a decade ago and often collects data on Americans for the Chinese government.
Former Atlanta city attorney, police officer indicted in $7 million PPP fraud scheme, officials say – — A former Assistant Atlanta Attorney and an Atlanta police officer were indicted Tuesday after being accused of defrauding the Paycheck Protection Program, according to United States Attorney Ryan K. Buchanan. Buchanan said the indictment accused 60-year-old Shelitha Robertson of Atlanta, who formerly served as an Assistant City Attorney and other co-conspirators, of submitting fraudulent PPP loan applications for various companies they owned and controlled. PPP is a federal stimulus program authorized as a part of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act. According to the indictment, Robertson fraudulently obtained over $7,000,000 in PPP loan funds that were then not used for payroll or other permitted business expenses.Buchanan added that Robertson is accused of using the funds to purchase luxury items, including a Rolls-Royce, a motorcycle, and jewelry. He said she also transferred the funds to family members and co-conspirators. “Robertson allegedly stole millions of dollars in taxpayer money intended to help small businesses stay afloat during the pandemic,” said Buchanan. “CARES Act loans were designed to help sustain small businesses during the pandemic, not to serve as a source of personal enrichment. We will continue to vigorously investigate and prosecute anyone who fraudulently obtains these critical funds.”Robertson was charged with conspiracy to commit wire fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering.The identity of the police officer was not revealed as well as his charges.
Rapper 'Nuke Bizzle' Who Bragged About Scamming Covid Relief Sentenced To Prison - Fontrell Antonio Baines, aka "Nuke Bizzle," was sentenced on Wednesday by a California federal judge after pleading guilty to mail fraud and two counts of unlawful possession of a firearm and ammunition by a felon. He also pleaded guilty to possession of oxycodone with intent to distribute, WaPo reports. Mr. Bizzle filed 92 falsified Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) claims with the California Employment Development Department (EDD) between July and September of 2020, in a scheme which sought to extract around $1.2 million in federal funds for personal benefit. He was successful in obtaining $704,760 of that, according to court filings. Baines used information from victims of identity theft and other third parties to fill out relief applications with false statements about applicants' work histories and residencies. In the video, which is believed by agents to have premiered on Sept. 11, 2020, Baines held up a stack of envelopes from California’s Employment Development Department, including one addressed to an individual identified by federal agents in court filings as a victim of Baines’s identity theft, saying he was getting rich by “go[ing] to the bank with a stack of these.” The video also featured rapper Fat Wizza and opened with a recording that states: “Your card has now been activated and is ready for use,” according to court filings, before an image closely resembling the logo of California’s Employment Development Department appears in the shot. The lyrics include: “I got rich off E.D.D.,” “10 cards swiping 10k a day,” and “You got to sell cocaine, I can just file a claim.” -WaPo Shortly after the video was published to YouTube, a special agent at the US Department of Labor's Office of Inspector General forwarded it to a branch of the office's data science team, who identified the rapper.
Fintechs' lax oversight enabled PPP fraud, report says -- Financial technology companies that distributed Paycheck Protection Program loans often employed lax oversight that allowed fraudsters or ineligible individuals to receive relief funded by taxpayers, a congressional report found. In its report, the House of Representatives' Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis recommended that Congress and the Small Business Administration should consider carefully whether "unregulated businesses" such as fintechs should be allowed to participate in future federal lending programs. The SBA was responsible for administering PPP funds."While the PPP delivered vital relief to millions of eligible small businesses, at least tens of billions of dollars in PPP funds were likely disbursed to ineligible or fraudulent applicants, often with the involvement of fintechs, causing tremendous harm to taxpayers," lawmakers wrote in the report issued Thursday.
As PPP fraud concerns multiply, SBA launches probe of banks and fintechs - In response to a congressional report criticizing its handling of fraud in the massive Paycheck Protection Program, the Small Business Administration says it plans to investigate several prominent PPP participants — including two fintechs and three community banks — spotlighted in the report. "The SBA will continue to work with the House Select Subcommittee [on the Coronavirus Crisis] to examine the evidence laid out in its report and continue taking corrective action to address the fraud and weak controls that were so prevalent at the onset of the PPP," the agency said in a statement this week. The report and subsequent controversy come at a sensitive juncture for the SBA. In October it revealed plans for a proposed regulation ending a 40-year moratorium on participation by unregulated lenders — those without bank or credit union charters — in its flagship 7(a) loan guarantee program. The move would open 7(a)'s doors to fintech small-business lenders, many of which have long lobbied for inclusion.
Despite Being Called the Madoff of Crypto, New York Times Features Sam Bankman-Fried at $2500 a Person Event Today -- By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: November 30, 2022 ~ You can’t make this stuff up. After promoting the false story that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and pushing the U.S. into a deadly and costly war through its reporter, Judith Miller; and using its editorial board to shill for the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act to advance the greedy Wall Street ambitions of Citigroup kingpin Sandy Weill, which ended up taking down the U.S. economy in 2008; the New York Times now appears determined to rehabilitate the reputation of the disgraced Sam Bankman-Fried, Co-Founder and recently ousted CEO of the bankrupt crypto exchange, FTX. Bankman-Fried is being investigated on multiple continents, including North America, for stealing customer assets and looting his private investors. He has been compared, in headlines around the globe, to Bernie Madoff and his Ponzi scheme. Reuters reported that Bankman-Fried had moved as much as $10 billion of FTX customers’ money to his hedge fund, Alameda Research, through a “backdoor” in its software. The Financial Times reported that FTX held just $900 million “in easily sellable assets” against $9 billion “of liabilities the day before it collapsed into bankruptcy.”Much of the FTX/Alameda money went into buying luxury properties in the Bahamas – to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars – while hundreds of millions more went into obtaining celebrity endorsements; tv commercials and a super bowl ad; padding the campaign coffers of politicians in Washington; and billions of dollars in loans to Sam Bankman-Fried and other top executives. .Against that backdrop, it is unfathomable that a large circulation, daily newspaper in America would lend its name to a conference featuring Sam Bankman-Fried as a speaker. But that is what is expected to unfold today, according to an email we received yesterday from a press contact at the New York Times, who wrote: “At this time, we expect Mr. Bankman-Fried will be participating in the DealBook Summit interview tomorrow from the Bahamas.” As of yesterday afternoon, Bankman-Fried was featured on the New York Times web site for this summit in the very top row of speakers listed. His photo appeared near that of Eric Adams, the crypto-loving Mayor of New York City. Another speaker at the same event is Janet Yellen, Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, who serves in the dual role of Chair of the Financial Stability Oversight Council – who might be expected to comment on how crypto is destabilizing and putting at risk the reputation of U.S. financial markets – while Bankman-Fried listens in from his $40 million penthouse condo in the Bahamas.
Sam Bankman-Fried: The Rigged Wall Street System that “Valued” His Company at $32 Billion - By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: If you have been following the Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX crypto exchange story since the company filed for bankruptcy on November 11, you have likely read the phrase “a valuation of $32 billion” dozens of times to describe the “valuation” of FTX as recently as February of this year. (We pulled up 47,600 results from a Google search.) mBut here’s the funny thing. No media outlet has bothered to explain how FTX came by that $32 billion valuation or precisely how Sam Bankman-Fried, the co-founder and CEO of FTX, became a billionaire overnight. FTX wasn’t publicly traded so its share price wasn’t determined by millions of investors buying and selling its stock on a public stock exchange five days a week.And here’s another funny thing: mainstream media reported in late September that FTX was looking to raise $1 billion more from venture capitalists while keeping its valuation at $32 billion, the same value that it had in February. But between February 1 and September 30, Coinbase, a crypto exchange that actually did trade on a public exchange where millions of real people bought and sold its stock, had lost 67 percent of its value. In the case of FTX, only $1.8 billion in shares were actually sold to outside investors. But the $32 billion valuation was thrown around as if market forces had genuinely determined what the company was worth. Likewise, Sam Bankman-Fried was said to be worth $16 billion based on the shares he retained in FTX and related companies. It’s impossible to say that the outside investors in FTX did any real due diligence to determine what valuation to place on FTX. The company did not have a functioning Board of Directors or even a CFO. The related-party transactions were so outrageous that they made another huckster, WeWork’s Adam Neumann, look like a Boy Scout. FTX was using company funds to buy up to $300 million in real estate in the Bahamas, putting some of the properties in the names of executives and one $16.5 million “vacation home” property in the name of Sam Bankman-Fried’s parents. Venture capital firms have a vested interest in grossly over-valuing a private firm that hopes to eventually go public on a stock exchange. The more over-valued the company is the more money the private investors make when they cash out their shares during or shortly after the IPO (Initial Public Offering). In the case of Coinbase, some of its private investors cashed out of their shares at more than $300 per share on its first day of trading on April 14, 2021. (Coinbase went public as a direct listing. In a traditional IPO, early private investors and company executives are not allowed to sell their shares for several months due to a so-called lockup period. There’s no such prohibition in a direct listing.) Coinbase closed last Friday at $47.67.
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is being investigated for crypto market manipulation: NYT -- US federal prosecutors are investigating FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried for manipulating two cryptocurrencies this past Spring, the New York Times reported Wednesday, citing two people with knowledge of the matter.They have launched a probe to determine whether Bankman-Fried controlled the prices of TerraUSD and Luna to the advantage of FTX and its affiliated trading firm Alameda Research, according to the Times.The investigation is in its early stages, and it's unclear if prosecutors have determined any wrongdoing by the crypto exchange founder.Troubles surrounding Bankman-Fried have only compounded after the collapse of FTX. The exchange filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on November 11 after it failed to secure a rescue following an intense week-long liquidity squeeze. Bankman-Fried resigned as CEO on the same day. Reuters reported at the time FTX had transferred billions of dollars of client funds to Bankman-Fried's Alameda Research.Bankman Fried told the Times in a statement on Wednesday he was "not aware of any market manipulation and certainly never intended to engage in market manipulation.""To the best of my knowledge, all transactions were for investment or for hedging," he added, per the Times.Bankman-Fried and a representative of the US attorney for the Southern District of New York did not immediately respond to Insider's requests for comment sent outside regular business hours.
Earth to Reporters: Why Is No One Asking SFB What Happened to the $3.3 Billion He Borrowed? -- by Yves Smith - Disgraced crypto chief Sam Bankman-Fried has been talking to reporters, including at the New York Times (the famed Andrew Ross Sorkin Dealbook interview), the Financial Times, and the Wall Street Journal. Despite the fact that it’s generally seen as a very bad idea to say anything about your past conduct when you are a litigation target, and likely for a criminal case, and SBF has said his lawyers are opposed to talking to the press, SBF is nevertheless swanning about on his media tour.Even though SBF got a bit of pushback from Sorkin on the question of co-mingling of funds when SBF tried playing, “Oh it was sort of allowed and anyway things were a mess,” he and other reporters didn’t probe very hard once they got his next layer of excuses: “Oh I didn’t mean to do anything bad, I don’t have access to records any more and my memory is fuzzy, and I really didn’t have anything to do with Alameda.”Here is the Financial Times’s recap from over the weekend:Core to Bankman-Fried’s account of how FTX ended up with a roughly $8bn shortfall of client assets was excessive lending by the exchange to Alameda, which ploughed the money into venture capital investments and doomed bets on digital tokens.Bankman-Fried deflected the FT’s questions about the excessive borrowing and soured investments that ultimately sank Alameda, blowing a hole in FTX’s finances, and would not be drawn on the legal consequences he may face. He said he deliberately avoided getting involved in Alameda’s trading and risk management to avoid conflicts with his position as chief executive of FTX, and neglected to monitor the risk they posed to the exchange. Got that? $8 billion hole at the hedge fund Alamada. We are supposed to believe that the was the result of FTX lending to Alamada and then Alameda doing stoopid things that burned up a lot of dough. Oh, and even though SBF is responsible for (at best) crappy controls at FTX that allowed Alameda, we are also supposed to believe SBF’s claims that he was not involved in what was happening at Alameda.Aside from the wee problem that SBF owned 90% of Alameda and had its detailed financial information as recently as March, Alameda made $3.3 billion of loans to SBF, $1 billion as a personal loan, and $2.3 billion to a 100% SBF-controlled entity, Paper Bird, that is outside the FTX-Alameda bankruptcy.So Alameda made $4.1 billion in loans to cronies, mainly SBF, and we are to believe that SBF had nothing to do with that? I am at a loss for the failure to purse the question of what happened to the $3.3 billion SBF borrowed. This is already in the public domain. Yes, no doubt more will be revealed as the bankruptcy process winds forward. But help me. This is not hard.
FTX bankruptcy team meets with federal prosecutors in New York - FTX's new chief executive and bankruptcy lawyers met with Manhattan federal prosecutors investigating the cryptocurrency exchange's collapse and allegations that it misused customer funds and lost billions of dollars, according to people familiar with the matter. John J. Ray III, who was appointed the exchange's CEO last month, met this week with the U.S. attorney's office for the Southern District of New York. Lawyers for FTX from Sullivan & Cromwell, including former Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement director Steve Peikin and former Manhattan federal prosecutor Nicole Friedlander, were also present, the people said. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney's Office did not immediately respond to requests for comment. FTX did not respond to email requests.
Senators seek SBF's testimony at Dec. 14 hearing on FTX - U.S. Sens. Sherrod Brown and Patrick Toomey have asked Sam Bankman-Fried to testify at a hearing on Dec. 14 about the cryptocurrency exchange FTX's collapse, according to a letter issued Wednesday.. Brown, who is the chair of the Senate Banking Committee, said he and Toomey are prepared to issue a subpoena if the disgraced crypto founder doesn't choose to appear voluntarily. Brown wrote that Bankman-Fried "must answer" for the failures of FTX Trading Ltd. and of Alameda Research, two of the entities in the sprawling and now-bankrupt FTX universe. "There are still significant unanswered questions about how client funds were misappropriated, how clients were blocked from withdrawing their own money, and how you orchestrated a cover up," he wrote.
Senate Committee to Subpoena FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried If He Does Not Testify Voluntarily - The Senate Banking Committee wants Sam Bankman-Fried to appear before it next week in person to discuss the collapse of FTX, and will subpoena him if he does not appear voluntarily, a letter from its leaders said Wednesday. Senators Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), respectively the chair and ranking member of the committee, wrote a public letter to Bankman-Fried, who resigned from the exchange the same day it filed for bankruptcy last month. The committee is holding a hearing on Wednesday, Dec. 14, a day after the House Financial Services Committee holds its own hearing on the exchange. “FTX’s collapse has caused real financial harm to consumers, and effects have spilled over into other parts of the crypto industry. The American people need answers about Sam Bankman-Fried’s misconduct at FTX," the lawmakers said in a prepared statement. "The Committee has requested that he testify at our upcoming hearing on FTX’s collapse, and will consider further action if he does not comply.” Normally witnesses appear voluntarily, the lawmakers said in the letter. If Bankman-Fried does not confirm his participation by Thursday, "I am prepared, along with Ranking Member Pat Toomey, to issue a subpoena to compel your testimony," the letter signed by Brown said.House Financial Services Committee Chair Maxine Waters has also invited Bankman-Fried to testify, saying in a tweet Wednesday that she may also seek to subpoena him if he does not appear voluntarily.Bankman-Fried has gone on a press tour since the bankruptcy, speaking to numerous reporters. He has not provided any concrete answers about how FTX appeared to send billions in customer funds to Alameda Research, another company he founded and was a majority owner of, saying he was unsure how it happened and implying that others were responsible for the fund movements.He now faces a number of investigations, including an investigation by federal prosecutors with the U.S. Attorney's Office in the Southern District of New York, who are investigating whether Bankman-Fried may have tried to manipulate the price of TerraUSD and Luna, which collapsed in their own dramatic fashion earlier this year, according to the New York Times.
Bankman-Fried misses deadline to respond to key Senate committee Sam Bankman-Fried missed the deadline set by a U.S. Senate committee for a response to a request to testify at a Dec. 14 hearing about FTX's collapse into bankruptcy. Bankman-Fried's counsel didn't reply in the stated time-frame, the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs said in a statement. "We believe it's important that Bankman-Fried show he is willing to provide transparency and accountability to the American people by providing testimony," committee Chairman Sherrod Brown and the ranking GOP member Pat Toomey said in the statement. "We will continue to work on having him appear before Congress as detailed in Wednesday's letter."
Sam Bankman-Fried could face years in prison over FTX meltdown - - Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced former CEO of FTX — the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange that was worth $32 billion a few weeks ago — has a real knack for self-promotional PR. For years, he cast himself in the likeness of a young boy genius turned business titan, capable of miraculously growing his crypto empire as other players got wiped out. Everyone from Silicon Valley’s top venture capitalists to A-list celebrities bought the act. But during Bankman-Fried’s press junket of the last few weeks, the onetime wunderkind has spun a new narrative – one in which he was simply an inexperienced and novice businessman who was out of his depth, didn’t know what he was doing, and crucially, didn’t know what was happening at the businesses he founded. It is quite the departure from the image he had carefully cultivated since launching his first crypto firm in 2017 – and according to former federal prosecutors, trial attorneys and legal experts speaking to CNBC, it recalls a classic legal defense dubbed the “bad businessman strategy.” At least $8 billion in customer funds are missing, reportedly used to backstop billions in losses at Alameda Research, the hedge fund he also founded. Both of his companies are now bankrupt with billions of dollars worth of debt on the books. The CEO tapped to take over, John Ray III, said that “in his 40 years of legal and restructuring experience,” he had never seen “such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here.” This is the same Ray who presided over Enron’s liquidation in the 2000s. In America, it is not a crime to be a lousy or careless CEO with poor judgement. During his recent press tour from a remote location in the Bahamas, Bankman-Fried really leaned into his own ineptitude, largely blaming FTX’s collapse on poor risk management. At least a dozen times in a conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, he appeared to deflect blame to Caroline Ellison, his counterpart (and one-time girlfriend) at Alameda. He says didn’t know how extremely leveraged Alameda was, and that he just didn’t know about a lot of things going on at his vast empire. Bankman-Fried admitted he had a “bad month,” but denied committing fraud at his crypto exchange. Fraud is the kind of criminal charge that can put you behind bars for life. With Bankman-Fried, the question is whether he misled FTX customers to believe their money was available, and not being used as collateral for loans or for other purposes, according to Renato Mariotti, a former federal prosecutor and trial attorney who has represented clients in derivative-related claims and securities class actions. “It sure looks like there’s a chargeable fraud case here,” said Mariotti. “If I represented Mr. Bankman-Fried, I would tell him he should be very concerned about prison time. That it should be an overriding concern for him.” But for the moment, Bankman-Fried appears unconcerned with his personal legal exposure. When Sorkin asked him if he was concerned about criminal liability, he demurred. “I don’t think that — obviously, I don’t personally think that I have — I think the real answer is it’s not — it sounds weird to say it, but I think the real answer is it’s not what I’m focusing on,” Bankman-Fried told Sorkin. “It’s — there’s going to be a time and a place for me to think about myself and my own future. But I don’t think this is it.”
Interest rate hikes start to make their impact --Nine months after the US Federal Reserve began lifting interest rates, forcing other central banks to do the same, the rise in the price of money is starting to surge through the global economy and financial system. The rate rises, being carried in the name of “fighting inflation,” have been instituted to try to suppress the growing upsurge of the world working class in response to soaring prices by inducing a major economic slowdown or even a recession. At present much of the media coverage focuses on the collapse of FTX. The main conclusion being drawn is that the demise of the $32 billion crypto exchange was the product of fraud committed by its founder Sam Bankman-Fried who operated what was essentially a Ponzi scheme. But there are deeper forces at work. The spectacular rise of FTX, which was promoted as one of the safest outfits in the crypto world, was very much the outcome of the massive inflow of cheap money provided by the Fed after the market freeze of March 2020 at the start of the pandemic. The fallout from the demise of FTX has called into question the future of the entire crypto system. The publicly listed company, Coinbase, which operates a crypto exchange, only had a limited exposure to FTX, just $15 million, it said. But as the Financial Times reported last week its stock and bonds have been knocked, sparking “renewed concerns about the outlook” for the company. At the start of the year, the company’s bonds were discounted at 93 cents on the dollar, now they are at 59 cents. The fall in its share price has been even more pronounced. Last November, when the Fed was still pouring money into the financial system, its shares were $369. They have lost 81 percent of their value so far this year. In a report issued last week, Moody’s Investor Services said the collapse of FTX was a “credit negative” for Coinbase and warned that its “implosion” would “radically transform the cryptoecosystem” and raise doubts about the ongoing prospects of the entire industry. The company has said it is a “strong position” and it has no meaningful exposure to the FTX demise. But such assurances will likely be taken with larger grains of salt given that FTX was also regarded as a safe operation. The impact of rising rates and the end of cheap money goes far beyond the crypto world. It should be recalled that one of its first affects was the crisis in the British financial system in September-October when the supposedly safe strategies pursued by pension funds were called into question. This required an emergency intervention by the Bank of England after a collapse of the British pound and a massive selloff in UK bond markets. Another area of concern is the commercial real estate market. It has also been boosted by low interest rates in the period since the 2008 financial crisis, but is now being squeezed by declining demand for office space as a result of COVID and higher interest rates. In New York, the largest office space market in the world, there is now the prospect of “zombie” companies, according to a report in the FT last week. It cited comments by a major real estate company executive Doug Harmon.
BankThink - Fed's crypto rules invite dangerous experimentation | American Banker -- Go buy a bank, any bank. Convert your bank to a Federal Reserve member bank, meaning that your bank's federal supervisor will now be the Fed, not the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency or the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Wait a little bit, maybe six months. Then send the Fed a letter notifying it that your bank is going to engage in digital-asset activities and that you have determined the activities your bank will conduct are permissible. Promise that you will soon establish a risk management framework to manage this complex new business. If you're lucky, your bank won't be examined for a year or two. By then, you might have cranked up quite a dumpster fire.To be clear, I'm not recommending this. But it appears at least one crypto group has gone this route. The Fed's Supervisory Letter SR 22-6 — "Engagement in Crypto-Asset-Related Activities by Federal Reserve-Supervised Banking Organizations," issued in August — allows Fed-supervised banks to back-door into the digital-asset business simply by giving notice to the Fed.
Warren presses Fed's Powell on bank-crypto links after FTX - U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren wants an accounting from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other top bank watchdogs on the links that major lenders have with the crypto industry following FTX's spectacular collapse. Warren and Tina Smith, who is also a Democratic senator, want to know how the Fed, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. "assesses the risks to banks and the banking system associated with those relationships." The pair said those connections might be deeper than previously thought.
Crypto bank Silvergate asked by U.S. senators to explain FTX ties - The crypto bank Silvergate Capital Corp. was asked by three U.S. senators to release all records about transfers of funds for the collapsed FTX empire of Sam Bankman-Fried. "Your bank's involvement in the transfer of FTX customer funds to Alameda reveals what appears to be an egregious failure of your bank's responsibility to monitor for and report suspicious financial activity carried out by its clients," Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Roger Marshall and John Kennedy wrote in a letter released Tuesday. "The public is owed a full accounting of the financial activities that may have led to the loss of billions in customer assets, and any role that Silvergate may have played in these losses." Shares of the La Jolla, California-based bank fell as much as 8%. The slide extends Silvergate's losses on the year to more than 84% and has it trading at a fresh 52-week low.
GOP's Toomey, who 'bought the hype' on FTX, now aims to pass crypto law - There's an opening for Congress to pass a narrow digital-asset regulation bill before the year's end after the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX, Sen. Pat Toomey said. Toomey, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, said he met with FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried several times before the implosion of the former billionaire's crypto empire and that the situation puts more pressure on Congress to establish guardrails for the industry. Senate Banking Hearing On Oversight Of Financial Regulators Sen. Pat Toomey during a hearing in Washington on Nov. 15.Sarah Silbiger/Bloomberg "I bought the story. I bought the hype. I was impressed," the Pennsylvania senator told Bloomberg News in an interview Friday in New York.
Toomey-Warren bill would require more Fed accountability wo influential members of the Senate Banking Committee introduced legislation Friday that would subject the Federal Reserve System to greater transparency requirements. The bill from Sens. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., would classify the Fed's 12 regional reserve banks as federal agencies under the Freedom of Information Act and the Federal Records Act. "The Fed and regional Fed banks, despite being creatures of Congress, obstruct congressional oversight inquiries all too often," Toomey said in a written statement. "In light of this persistent refusal to comply with reasonable requests for information from both Republicans and Democrats, I'm glad to join with Senator Warren in pursuing reforms that will compel these public institutions to be more transparent and accountable to the American people."
Congress must include deposit insurance in stablecoin legislation The collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX is causing all of Washington to rethink its approach to regulating crypto assets, yet Congress is poised to consider a bill that does not adequately address stablecoins' run risk. Failing to provide issuers with government-backed insurance would be detrimental to the wider economy. Stablecoins are crypto tokens that aim to maintain a stable value, and like bank deposits, they pose risks to the financial system. Stablecoin issuers are just like banks in that they both exchange money for claims on assets and also engage in maturity transformation by using those short-term assets to make longer-term loans. Like banks, stablecoin issuers can experience runs. Since 1933, the United States has had a very effective structure of bank regulation that includes supervision by examiners, capital requirements and deposit insurance. Examiners review management practices, lending processes and procedures, assets and liabilities, and compliance with the law to ensure that banks are operating in a safe and sound manner to stop trouble from brewing before it can boil over. Capital requirements ensure that if trouble does occur shareholders absorb the first losses. And deposit insurance provided by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. makes depositors whole up to $250,000 per person per institution if a bank does fail.
BankThink: The U.S. must carefully consider the development of a digital dollar | American Banker - -- The United States' leadership in the global economy is propelled by our ability to leverage innovations that make markets and communication more efficient. The United States responded to the emergence of the internet by advancing policies that prioritize American values of privacy, individual sovereignty, and free markets. Today, the internet stands as an infrastructure that any American can access and build upon freely, without the permission of public officials. America remains a technological leader not because we force innovations to adopt our values under regulatory duress, but because we allow technology that holds these values at their core to flourish. The next phase of the digital economy is what some refer to as the "ownership economy," a new evolution of financial transactions, which consist of a trusted, immutable mechanism for transferring value in real time over the internet. But this too must be approached through the advancement of policies that prioritize American values of privacy, individual sovereignty, and free markets.
Crypto broker Genesis needs weeks, not days, to find a path for lending unit | American Banker -- The crypto broker Genesis told clients that it could take weeks, not days, for it to find a path forward for its troubled lending unit, which was hobbled by the implosion of Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX. "These are extraordinary times in our industry, and, while we are working urgently, this is a comprehensive process that we expect will take some time," Derar Islim, Genesis's interim CEO wrote in a letter seen by Bloomberg News. "We anticipate that it will take additional weeks rather than days for us to arrive at a path forward," he said, adding that the company will update clients on timing as it makes progress. A Genesis spokesperson declined to comment. The sudden collapse of FTX, one of the world's largest crypto exchanges, roiled the digital-asset market and triggered a liquidity crunch at Genesis. The company has been trying to raise at least $1 billion in fresh cash for its lending unit, though some investors approached for the lifeline have balked at the interconnectedness between Genesis and other related entities that are part of Barry Silbert's Digital Currency Group.
Galaxy Digital gets Celsius assets at 60% discount after crypto lender's bankruptcy | American Banker - Galaxy Digital is paying $44.1 million to buy Celsius Network's GK8 business — more than 60% lower than what the bankrupt crypto lender paid to acquire the self-custody platform just last year. The deal for GK8 was agreed at a purchase price of $44 million in cash plus $100,000 in assumed liabilities, according to a court filing. Celsius had previously acquired GK8 for $115 million in November 2021. The acquisition, which was announced on Dec. 2 and is subject to court approvals, would add a team of nearly 40 staffers to Galaxy's workforce.
Coinbase gets Supreme Court hearing over account-holder suit - The U.S. Supreme Court agreed to consider a Coinbase Global appeal over a user lawsuit in a case that could bolster the ability of companies to channel customer and employee disputes into arbitration. The appeal raises a procedural question that the cryptocurrency exchange platform says can be crucially important in arbitration cases. The company is battling claims by Abraham Bielski, who says Coinbase should compensate him for $31,000 he lost after he gave a scammer remote access to his account. At issue is whether the lawsuit can move forward while Coinbase presses an appeal that seeks to send the case to arbitration. Coinbase contends that trial court proceedings should automatically stop when a party files a nonfrivolous appeal seeking to compel arbitration.
SEC presses firms to disclose exposure to crypto bankruptcies -- - Publicly traded companies exposed to the "crypto winter" and the collapse of FTX or other digital-asset companies might have to disclose those details to investors under new guidance from the Securities and Exchange Commission. The disclosures would likely apply directly to companies that incorporate digital assets into their businesses. But the guidance released Thursday indicates that they could extend to any company with material exposure to the troubled crypto market."Recent bankruptcies and financial distress among crypto asset market participants have caused widespread disruption in those markets," the SEC's division of corporation finance wrote. "Companies may have disclosure obligations under the federal securities laws related to the direct or indirect impact that these events and collateral events have had or may have on their business."
An obscure bank found its key to success. Then FTX collapsed. Silvergate Capital Corp. was dealing with the same problem many small U.S. banks face: How do you differentiate yourself when larger competitors do everything you do, only better? The solution it found was to focus on a sector other banks didn't want to touch: cryptocurrency. Over the course of a decade, the La Jolla, California-based company transformed itself from a bank catering to small businesses into a publicly traded firm known for providing banking services to major crypto clients such as Coinbase Global Inc. and Gemini Trust Co. — as well as Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX and Alameda Research. The arrangement was going well, with Silvergate shares soaring to an all-time high of $222.13 in November 2021 as digital-asset prices set records. Then a painful crypto winter set in, with the value of virtual coins sinking.
With Crypto Bank, SoFi, the Fed Is Setting the Stage for the Same Disastrous Decision It Made with Citigroup in 1999 - By Pam and Russ Martens -If there is one person in America who comprehensively understands the threats to the U.S. banking system, it is Arthur E. Wilmarth, Jr., author of the 2020 seminal book, Taming the Megabanks: Why We Need a New Glass-Steagall Act. Wilmarth is Professor Emeritus of Law at George Washington University Law School and has published more than 40 law review articles and book chapters in the fields of financial regulation and American constitutional history.Wilmarth had this to say about the way the Fed allowed a crypto outfit, SoFi, to scoop up a federally-insured bank in February of this year: “The San Francisco Fed relied on the same five-year transitional exemption in the BHC Act [Bank Holding Company Act] to allow SoFi to acquire Golden Pacific Bancorp and its national bank subsidiary despite SoFi’s nonconforming crypto trading activities. I find it astonishing and disturbing that the Federal Reserve Board would allow the San Francisco Fed to issue such a path-breaking approval — which permits a bank holding company to offer crypto trading services to depositors of its subsidiary bank — under delegated authority and without a published opinion.” Wilmarth was referring to a letter sent on November 21 by Senator Sherrod Brown, Chair of the Senate Banking Committee, and some of his colleagues on that Committee, to federal bank regulators about SoFi. The letter read in part: “In January 2022, SoFi received approval from the Federal Reserve for the acquisition of Golden Pacific Bancorp, Inc. and a conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for the creation of SoFi Bank, N.A. SoFi completed the acquisition in February 2022. As part of the approval, the Federal Reserve provided SoFi with two years to divest from SoFi Digital Assets — a nonbank subsidiary that allows retail investors to buy and sell digital assets — or conform the subsidiary’s impermissible digital asset activities to the law. During this conformance period, SoFi has committed not to ‘expand [its] impermissible activities,’ except as specifically authorized by law. SoFi initially agreed to these terms, but since the acquisition, SoFi Digital Assets has apparently expanded its retail digital assets operations. “Two months after receiving regulatory approval, SoFi announced a new service allowing customers of its national bank to invest part of every direct deposit into digital assets with no fees. The company publicly billed this service as ‘the latest expansion of SoFi’s offerings to make it simpler to get started with cryptocurrency investing.’ SoFi’s own investor protection materials, however, warn customers that at least one token listed on SoFi Digital Assets is ‘a crypto pump-and-dump’ hazard with ‘no special use case or features’ and that ‘[it] might be among the most high-risk endeavors an investor can take.’ Troublingly, this conduct raises questions about SoFi’s compliance with commitments made in the January 2022 approvals and to meeting its ongoing obligations as a banking organization.” It doesn’t get any crazier than this. A federally-insured bank knowingly peddling a crypto pump and dump scheme through a subsidiary operation. Wilmarth sees striking parallels between the Fed’s actions with SoFi and how the Fed approved the first merger of a Wall Street trading house, Salomon Brothers, with a federally-insured bank, Citicorp’s Citibank. Wilmarth gave us permission to quote he following from his book on that merger:
Credit Default Swaps Blow Out on Credit Suisse as its Stock Price Hits an All-Time Low of $2.82 - By Pam and Russ Martens - That $4 billion capital raise that was supposed to shore up confidence in global banking behemoth Credit Suisse turns out to have been too little, too late. Yesterday, 5-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on Credit Suisse blew out to 446 basis points. That’s up from 55 basis points in January and more than five times where CDS on its peer Swiss bank, UBS, are trading. The price of a Credit Default Swap reflects the cost of insuring oneself against a debt default by the bank. Who might be desperate to buy protection against a default by Credit Suisse and driving up the cost of that protection? The mega banks on Wall Street that are counterparties to its derivative trades come to mind, as well as hedge fund speculators. Things don’t look any brighter this morning for Credit Suisse. Its shares are trading in Europe at 2.67 Swiss Francs or approximately $2.82 – an all-time low. Year-to-date, shares of Credit Suisse have lost 66 percent of their value as of yesterday’s close on the New York Stock Exchange. Credit Suisse is Switzerland’s second largest bank, after UBS. It has been embroiled in nonstop scandals that suggest incompetent risk controls inside the bank. In late March and early April of last year, Credit Suisse lost $5.5 billion from the highly-leveraged, highly concentrated stock positions it was financing via tricked-up derivatives for Archegos Capital Management, the family office hedge fund of Sung Kook “Bill” Hwang. Archegos blew up on March 25, 2021 after it defaulted on margin calls to the banks financing its trades. (See our report: Archegos: Wall Street Was Effectively Giving 85 Percent Margin Loans on Concentrated Stock Positions – Thwarting the Fed’s Reg T and Its Own Margin Rules. Also see: Justice Department and SEC Portray Serially-Charged Banks on Wall Street as Hapless Victims of Archegos Fraud. Nobody’s Buying It.) The Board of Credit Suisse decided to hire the Big Law firm, Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison, to conduct an internal investigation of the matter. On July 29, 2021 Paul Weiss issued a 165-page report on its version of what happened. This is how the Paul Weiss report portrayed the zombie risk managers at Credit Suisse: “The Archegos-related losses sustained by CS [Credit Suisse] are the result of a fundamental failure of management and controls in CS’s Investment Bank and, specifically, in its Prime Services business. The business was focused on maximizing short-term profits and failed to rein in and, indeed, enabled Archegos’s voracious risk-taking. There were numerous warning signals—including large, persistent limit breaches — indicating that Archegos’s concentrated, volatile, and severely under-margined swap positions posed potentially catastrophic risk to CS. Yet the business, from the in-business risk managers to the Global Head of Equities, as well as the risk function, failed to heed these signs, despite evidence that some individuals did raise concerns appropriately.”m Credit Suisse’s reputation took another hit from its involvement in the Greensill Capital scandal and its infamous spy-gate scandal in 2019 where the bank spied on, and followed, various employees. And if all of this wasn’t enough, on November 2 S&P cut Credit Suisse’s credit rating to one notch above junk. That was followed by more disturbing news on November 23 when the bank reported that its clients had yanked $88.3 billion of their assets out of the bank.
Secretary Yellen, We’ve Got a “Staggering” Problem: New Report Shows Foreign Banks Have Secret Derivative Debt that Is “10 Times their Capital” - By Pam Martens and Russ Martens - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has the dual role of Chairing the Financial Stability Oversight Council (F-SOC), whose role is to provide “comprehensive monitoring of the stability of our nation’s financial system.” Heads of each of the federal agencies that supervise Wall Street and the mega banks sit in on meetings of F-SOC. One would think that such an august body would have a handle on “staggering” threats to the U.S. financial system – especially since F-SOC was created under the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation to prevent a replay of the off-balance sheet derivatives that crashed the U.S. economy in 2008 and forced an unprecedented and secret bailout of U.S. and foreign global banks by the Federal Reserve to the tune of $29 trillion. If Yellen is aware of the latest threat to financial stability, she’s not sharing the details with the public. That information came yesterday by way of a stunning report authored by Claudio Borio, Robert McCauley and Patrick McGuire for the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).The report focuses on the amount of derivative debt that is not being captured through regular statistical reporting because it is held off the balance sheet. These derivatives consist of foreign exchange swaps, forwards and currency swaps. The authors call this exposure “staggering” but focus primarily on the potential for upsets to dollar swap lines to settle it as it comes due. A greater concern, in our estimation, is this line from the report: “For banks headquartered outside the United States, dollar debt from these instruments is estimated at $39 trillion, more than double their on-balance sheet dollar debt and more than 10 times their capital.” Their on-balance sheet dollar debt is $15 trillion.This is reminiscent of Goldman Sachs engaging in derivative trades with Greece to hide its mountain of debt prior to it blowing up.Global foreign banks are – for better or worse – an integral part of the U.S. financial system. When there is a crisis, such as the Wall Street implosion in 2008 or the pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve bails out global foreign banks along with global domestic banks. Why does it do that? Because the trading units of foreign global banks, as well as domestic global banks, make up what the Fed calls its “primary dealers.” The primary dealers are contractually obligated to make purchases of U.S. Treasury securities at each U.S. Treasury auction and to trade with the New York Fed to carry out Federal Reserve monetary policy. An equal concern for Yellen, Congress, and every engaged American is the fact that all it takes is one heavily interconnected global bank (foreign or domestic) to set off a wave of contagion in global financial markets. And, there is no question that the counterparties to a significant amount of that $39 trillion in off-balance sheet derivative debt at foreign banks are the big five derivative banks in the U.S.: JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.
'Huge, missing and growing': $65 trillion in dollar debt sparks concern Institutions outside the U.S. are holding an estimated $65 trillion in "missing" dollar debt off their balance sheets through currency derivatives, making it harder for global policymakers to anticipate the next financial crisis. According to a paper from the Bank for International Settlements, this very short-term hidden borrowing forms part of a "huge, missing and growing" debt that the likes of pension funds owe through foreign-exchange swaps and other derivatives transactions. Top Currency Forecasters Say Best Over for Dollar This is a problem, the BIS noted, because FX swaps were flashpoints during both the global financial crisis and the early days of the pandemic, when dollar funding stress forced central banks to step in to help struggling borrowers.
EU aims to require crypto providers to report transaction data - The European Union proposed new rules Thursday to combat tax fraud and evasion in the crypto sector by requiring all digital-asset service providers to report transactions involving customers residing in the bloc. The initiative by the EU's executive arm, part of a package to increase the transparency in the tax system, aims to ensure that the bloc's residents pay taxes on gains from trading or investing in crypto assets. It would establish a common minimum level of penalties for cases of serious noncompliance, including the absence of reporting despite reminders. "The cover of anonymity, the fact that there are more than 9,000 different crypto assets currently available, and the inherent digital nature of the trade means that many cryptoasset users that are making huge profits fall under the radar of national tax authorities," the bloc's economy commissioner, Paolo Gentiloni, said in a prepared statement.
Wirecard CEO gets day in court after two years behind bars - Markus Braun makes his first public appearance in court on Thursday, more than two years after his highflying digital-payment company Wirecard collapsed under the weight of fraud allegations, wiping out billions in shareholder value and destroying Germany's efforts to breed a new technology champion rivaling Silicon Valley. The Munich Regional Court opened the case against Braun and two co-accused on Thursday in a spacious courtroom located in the Stadelheim prison, among Germany's largest prison complexes. With more than three dozen journalists registered to follow the proceedings, the trial is set to stretch well into 2024 as the presiding five judges pours over material collected in more than 700 binders of documents. The case will retrace the steps leading up to the early months of 2020, when Wirecard fought an increasingly futile battle to portray itself as a digital payment pioneer under assault from short sellers and journalists alleging the company was built on fraud. In the end, the business quickly crumbled, with Wirecard first admitting that more than $2 billion in cash it had previously reported as merely missing likely never existed, and the company then filed for insolvency a few days later on June 25, 2020.
OCC's Hsu says 'now is not the time to be complacent' on risk management | American Banker - Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu says new standards for projecting credit losses will benefit banks and other financial institutions amid current economic uncertainty.In a speech delivered earlier this week during a virtual conference hosted by the Risk Management Association, Hsu championed the new current expected credit loss, or CECL, standards that are poised to go into effect next year, saying the requirements provide flexibility to lenders along with conformity to existing risk management practices."We've heard fairly consistently from institutions that have implemented CECL that it better aligns with their credit risk management practices and has brought together multiple disciplines in the organization such as credit risk, accounting, modeling, and treasury that may previously have operated more independently," he said. "We've also observed that the quality and transparency of the discussion around credit loss estimates has improved under CECL."
JPMorgan Chase, the Largest Federally-Insured Bank in the U.S. with Five Felony Counts, Says 10 Percent of its New Hires Last Year Had Criminal Histories --By Pam and Russ Martens: - If you’re the Chairman and CEO of a trucking company or air conditioner installer or a computer manufacturer (or thousands of other companies that don’t handle cash and have access to personal and financial data on millions of Americans) announcing to the world that 10 percent of your company’s new hires last year had criminal backgrounds might make you look like a social justice advocate. If you’re Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of the largest bank in the U.S. with 5,023 bank branches across the country taking in cash each day that represents the life savings of moms and pops and pension funds, announcing that 10 percent of last year’s new hires had criminal backgrounds is not exactly a confidence builder – especially since Dimon’s bank has been charged by the U.S. Department of Justice with an unprecedented five criminal felony counts since 2014. All of the felony counts occurred during Dimon’s tenure as Chairman and CEO, and while his Board of Directors made him a billionaire with stock grants and bonuses. In addition, the bank has a broader rap sheet that likely draws the envy of the Gambino crime family. On May 4, Dimon penned a guest opinion piece for The Columbus Dispatch. (The bank has a large operating center in Columbus.) The article includes this: “JPMorgan Chase has a meaningful portion of colleagues who have a criminal background — in 2021, 10% of our new hires in our company had a criminal record — and retention rates for this population are very high.” JPMorgan Chase was so proud of that article that it placed it on its corporate website. Our skepticism about Dimon’s real agenda is fueled not just by those five felony counts and former lawyers at the bank telling regulators that fraud is condoned at the bank, but also by revelations that came out of a hearing of the U.S. Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations on November 21, 2014. Those revelations were as follows: As if that disclosure wasn’t bad enough in one hearing, Congresswoman Katie Porter also revealed the paucity of wages Dimon was paying his bank tellers. Porter asked Dimon for help with a math problem. Porter explained how Jamie Dimon’s $31 million in compensation in 2018 compared to what the bank is paying one of its bank tellers who is a single mother with a 6-year old daughter. Porter explained that she went to Monster.com and found a job in her hometown of Irvine, California for a bank teller at JPMorgan Chase. She said the job pays $16.50 per hour or $35,070 per year or an after-tax amount of $29,100 for a single mother with a six-year old child. After deducting for rent on a 1-bedroom apartment, utilities, car payment on a 2008 car, gas, food, the cheapest cell phone, and after-school child care, the woman would be $567 in the hole each month. Porter asked Dimon how this woman should manage her budget short-fall while she’s working full time at his bank. Dimon said: “I don’t know that all of your numbers are accurate” (which prompted Porter to post the photo below on her Twitter page after the hearing).
Ex-JPMorgan gold trader found guilty in spoofing trial - Former JPMorgan Chase gold and silver trader Christopher Jordan was convicted of wire fraud affecting a financial institution by a federal jury in Chicago, the latest win for U.S. prosecutors in their crackdown on illegal "spoofing" trades and market manipulation. Jordan was found guilty Friday after a four-day trial in the same courthouse where two of his more senior colleagues on the JPMorgan precious-metals desk were convicted in August on spoofing-related charges for deceptive buy and sell orders. Jordan worked at the bank from 2006 to late 2009. While his deceptive trades occurred before spoofing was made a crime in 2010, he used the same technique by placing large orders he never intended to execute and quickly canceled so he could make trades on the other side of the market, prosecutors said.
FDIC: Problem Banks Increased to 42 in Q3 2022 - The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2022 last week: Nnet Income Increased Quarter Over Quarter and Year Over Year: Quarterly net income totaled $71.7 billion in third quarter 2022, an increase of $7.3 billion (11.3 percent) from the second quarter.Asset Quality Metrics Were Favorable Overall Despite Growth in Early Delinquencies: Loans that were 90 days or more past due or in nonaccrual status (i.e., noncurrent loans) continued to decline and the noncurrent rate was down 3 basis points to 0.72 percent from second quarter 2022. The noncurrent rate for total loans is at the lowest level since second quarter 2006. Total net charge-offs increased 6 basis points from a year ago to 0.26 percent, driven by higher credit card and auto loan net charge offs. Early delinquencies (i.e., loans past due 30-89 days) increased 3 basis points from last quarter and 7 basis points from the year-ago quarter to 0.51 percent. Both the quarterly and annual increases were driven by an increase in past due credit cards, C&I, and auto loans.The FDIC reported the number of problem banks increased to 42. The number of banks on the FDIC’s “Problem Bank List” increased by two from second quarter to 42. Total assets of problem banks declined $5.7 billion to $163.8 billion.7 No banks failed in the third quarter.This graph from the FDIC shows the number of problem banks and assets at problem institutions. Note: The number of assets for problem banks increased significantly back in 2018 when Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas was added to the list. An even larger bank was added to the list last year, although the identity of the bank is unclear.
Defense spending bill could force transparency of Fed master accounts - Sen. Pat Toomey's quest to bring more transparency to the Federal Reserve's master account-granting process is a Senate vote away from coming to fruition. The ranking Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, who is poised to leave Congress at the end of the year, authored a provision for the National Defense Authorization Act that would require the Fed to publish lists of banks with master accounts and institutions that have applied for them. The sweeping bill, which includes a record $858 billion of military funding, passed through the House by a vote of 350-80 on Thursday.
Fed's Barr builds case for tougher capital requirements - The Federal Reserve's top regulator indicated that higher bank capital requirements and a revamped stress test regime could be in the works. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, in a speech delivered at an American Enterprise Institute event Thursday afternoon, detailed the objectives of his "holistic" review of the central bank's capital framework. Barr took no firm stance on how the Fed's various standards might change, but he said the current calibration appears to be insufficient.
Canada bank regulator increases capital buffer as risks rise --Canada's banking regulator increased a key capital requirement for large banks — and raised the potential range of the measure — giving it more power to protect the country's financial system from elevated risks. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions said Thursday that it's lifting the domestic stability buffer to 3% by Feb. 1, up from its current 2.5% level. The regulator also boosted the range of the buffer to as much as 4%, beyond the previous limit of 2.5%. The measures show OSFI sees growing risks to the financial system — including rising household debt, persistent inflation and geopolitical turmoil — that require it to have more latitude to protect the financial system. Yet the economy is currently growing and loan losses are low, making this a good time to make banks build larger buffers that can later be released when stresses begin to materialize and they need to put the capital to work to absorb losses and maintain lending, the agency said.
Fed ends enforcement action against bank that laundered Iranian funds The Federal Reserve ended a six-year-old enforcement action leveled against a foreign bank that processed more than $1 billion of illegal transactions in violation of U.S. sanctions against Iran. On Tuesday, the Fed Board of Governors terminated a written agreement with the Industrial Bank of Korea and its New York branch, or IBK and IBKNY, respectively, both of which admitted in 2016 that they insufficient practices for detecting and reporting fraudulent activities. The agreement required the banks to enhance their practices related to monitoring and reporting suspicious activities, adhering to anti-money-laundering laws and the Bank Secrecy Act, as well as regulations imposed by the Office of Foreign Assets Control.
Fincen wants to publish its database access rule before year-end - — Himamauli Das, acting director of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, said the agency is working to publish the second leg of its "beneficial ownership" rules in the coming days. Speaking at an anti-money-laundering conference Tuesday, Das said the rule, which he termed a database "access" rule, "by the end of the year." The rule is part of the agency's required regulations pursuant to the recently passed Corporate Transparency Act. Signed into law in early 2021, the CTA is intended to prevent the U.S. financial system from being utilized for illicit activity and relieve banks of the burden of determining the true owners of anonymous shell companies.
Judge's report hammers three ex-Wells Fargo executives - Three former high-level Wells Fargo executives may be forced to pay millions of dollars in penalties after a judge assigned them significant culpability for the bank's fake-accounts scandal. In a report made public on Wednesday, Administrative Law Judge Christopher McNeil recommended stiff penalties for former Chief Auditor David Julian, former Community Bank Group Risk Officer Claudia Russ Anderson and former Executive Audit Director Paul McLinko. The three executives will be ordered to pay a combined $18.5 million in civil money penalties if the judge's recommendations are adopted by acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu. In addition, both Julian and Russ Anderson would be banned from working in the banking industry. The recommendations are largely in line with the penalties that were sought by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency during a months-long civil hearing that ended in January. The agency alleged that the three former executives did not perform their duties and responsibilities adequately, and that their failures contributed to systemic problems at the bank. Lawyers for the three former Wells executives indicated that they plan to continue fighting the OCC. The defendants will have the opportunity to ask a federal appeals court to review whatever penalties get assessed.
Cannabis banking bill may get another chance at a vote with defense measure | American BankerAn end-of-year push to attach a marijuana banking bill to a must-pass defense measure is facing stiff resistance from Senate Republicans and complicating the delicate lame-duck endgame for Democratic leaders soon to lose control of the House. Democrats are eyeing the defense bill, which has been enacted annually for more than 60 years, as a a vehicle for a host of other priorities "with no relationship whatsoever to defense," Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said Tuesday. McConnell suggested controversial items like "making our financial system more sympathetic to illegal drugs or permitting reform in name only" should be dropped from the annual Defense bill.
House-passed defense bill loosens convict restrictions, Senate version omits cannabis banking — The House of Representatives on Thursday passed its version of the National Defense Authorization Act, including provisions to make it easier for banks to hire rehabilitated ex-convicts — something that banks and regulators have been pushing for years. But at the same time, the Senate's latest version of the defense spending bill omitted a popular cannabis banking measure that was in the House version, dashing bankers' hopes it would finally cross the finish line after first being passed by the House in 2019. Section 19 of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, which has been in place since 1950, prohibits banks from hiring anyone "convicted of any criminal offense involving dishonesty, breach of trust, or money laundering" without express permission from the FDIC. That provision has limited banks' ability to hire entry-level employees with criminal records, even if those offenders have been rehabilitated.
Hispanic lawmakers press Fed to appoint first Latino as regional bank president A group of Hispanic lawmakers urged the Federal Reserve to appoint its first-ever Latino as a regional president after recent searches for the top roles at three other district banks resulted in the hiring of non-Latino candidates. U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey and more than a dozen other members of Congress, in a letter released Thursday, said the directors of the Kansas City Fed — who are handling the search — have "an historic opportunity to appoint a Latino candidate" to fill the vacancy coming in January with President Esther George's retirement. Latinos have been shut out of the leadership of the U.S. central bank during its 108-year history, with no presidents of any of the 12 reserve banks identifying as Latino, according to the letter from Menendez, Rep. Raul Ruiz of California, chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, and other Democratic members including senators Alex Padilla, Ben Ray Lujan and Catherine Cortez Masto.
Fed calls for closer monitoring of climate risks in proposed guidelines The Federal Reserve Board of Governors has proposed new guidelines for how banks with more than $100 billion of assets should manage climate-related financial risks. The Fed is seeking public comment on the new framework, which calls for banks to establish standards for assessing the risks posed by climate change as well as related changes to policy, market sentiment and technology, known collectively as transition risks. "Weaknesses in how financial institutions identify, measure, monitor, and control potential climate-related financial risks could adversely affect financial institutions' safety and soundness, as well as the stability of the overall financial system," the proposal reads. "The Board is therefore seeking comment on draft principles that would promote a consistent understanding of how climate-related financial risks can be effectively identified, measured, monitored, and controlled among the largest institutions, those with over $100 billion in total consolidated assets."
New SPAC Stuff Keeps Imploding amid Shortage of “Consensual Hallucination,” as I Call it, But Now the Imploding is a Lot Faster --By Wolf Richter - Grindr, which describes itself as “the world’s largest social network for the LGBTQ community,” went public via merger with a SPAC on November 18, 2022. On that first day as a public company, the shares shot from the price of the pre-merger-SPAC of $11.63 to an intraday high of $71.51, at which point the collapse started, and 7 trading days into it, the shares had kathoomphed by 91% from that high, and today, 12 trading days into, they’re still down 91%, at $6.37. This chart is just nuts: SPAC sponsors – often private-equity firms, venture-capital firms, or wealthy people – want to make some money. But they will only make money if the SPAC merges with a target company because when the merger closes, they typically get 20% or so of the funds raised in the IPO of the SPAC. After the SPAC’s shares trade under the ticker of the acquired company, and crash, well, the sponsors already got their 20% out. But if that SPAC cannot merge with a target company by the time the two-year deadline comes around, it has to shut down and return the money raised in the IPO to the SPAC’s shareholders. At that point, the sponsors won’t get their 20% of the funds raised. Plus, they will lose the startup capital that they put into the blank-check company and that was used to pay underwriters, lawyers, registration fees, etc. on the way to the IPO to become a publicly traded SPAC. That’s the tradeoff: If the SPAC completes a merger with a zombie, and starts trading under the zombie’s ticker, the sponsors make a ton of money even if the shares collapse. But if a merger cannot take place by the two-year deadline, the sponsors are out their startup capital. So you can figure how that motivates the sponsors. In the three years of 2020 through 2022, a total of 944 SPACs were formed and went public via IPO in the US, according to the count by SPAC Research, raising money that way to be used to acquire a real company which would then become the publicly traded company. It might seem that 944 merger targets would be a lot of companies to acquire and turn into publicly traded stocks. But hey, it was the era of consensual hallucination, and everything flew, everyone went along, money was falling from the sky, and a mad scramble ensued to line up celebrities of all kinds to promote this stuff, and when this stuff then collapsed, some of them got sued.
Investors Head for the Exits at Illiquid Funds: Blackstone Limits Withdrawals from Giant Real Estate Fund - By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 2, 2022 ~ Investors seem to be thinking a lot these days about that old Will Rogers maxim: “People should be more concerned with the return of their principal than the return on their principal.” Investors have been demanding their money back from a growing number of crypto outfits and now that anxiousness is broadening out. The latest to be hit with a surge in investor demand for their money back is the Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust (BREIT). Unlike most REITs, BREIT doesn’t trade on a stock exchange. Investors have to ask the trust to buy back their shares when they want their cash back. According to an announcement posted at the Blackstone website, it has begun to limit withdrawals. In November, investors only received 43 percent of the withdrawals they requested. The statement explains:“BREIT received repurchase requests equal to 2.7% of NAV [Net Asset Value] in October, or approximately $1.8 billion, and received approval from its majority independent Board of Directors to fulfill 100% of repurchase requests. BREIT has now received repurchase requests exceeding both the 2% of NAV monthly limit and 5% of NAV quarterly limit, triggering proration for the remaining 2.3% of NAV for the quarter. Accordingly, BREIT repurchased approximately $1.3 billion in November, equal to its 2% of NAV monthly limit and approximately 43% of each investor’s repurchase request. In December, up to 0.3% of NAV will be eligible for repurchase to total 5% of NAV for the quarter. If BREIT receives elevated repurchase requests in the first quarter of 2023, BREIT intends to fulfill repurchases at the 2% of NAV monthly limit, subject to the 5% of NAV quarterly limit. “Under the Repurchase Plan, unfulfilled repurchase requests will not be carried over automatically. Investors will need to resubmit any unsatisfied portion of their current repurchase request for repurchase in the future.” Blackstone is apparently attempting to get more liquid in the fund in anticipation of more withdrawal requests. According to the Wall Street Journal, the fund is selling its 49.9 percent stake in the MGM Grand Las Vegas and Mandalay Bay to Vici Properties, which owns the remaining share of the properties. Under the terms of the deal, as reported by the Journal, Blackstone would receive $1.3 billion in cash with Vici also assuming Blackstone’s share of $3 billion in debt. Gating a customer’s money is something that has rarely happened in the U.S. in recent decades – until the crypto cabal entered the investment arena. Now it’s becoming an almost weekly occurrence.
CFPB sides with states in fight over small-business loan disclosures Laws in four states that require certain borrower disclosures on small-business loans do not run afoul of federal law, according to a preliminary determination by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The CFPB said that the laws — in New York, California, Virginia and Utah — do not appear to violate the longstanding principle of preemption, which may be used to override state laws that contradict a federal statute. Though their details differ, all four state laws represent efforts by lawmakers to ensure that lenders provide clearer and more consistent information to small-business borrowers. All four of them have passed in the last four years.
Canada's bank watchdog rebuffs calls to scrap mortgage stress test -Canada's banking regulator said the country's mortgage stress test has helped prevent widespread defaults as interest rates rose this year, rebuffing calls to weaken or eliminate the measure amid a surge in homebuying costs. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions requires banks to ensure that borrowers can still qualify for their mortgages at a rate 2 percentage points higher than what the lender is offering, or 5.25% — whichever rate is higher at the time. After the Bank of Canada's latest hike earlier this week, that minimum qualifying rate may soon top 8%. The bank watchdog on Friday pushed back on growing calls to lower or kill the stress test, rebutting the argument that mortgage rates may be peaking and that the test is putting "an undue burden on homebuyers."
Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO - Last year, I pointed out that with the end of the foreclosure moratoriums, combined with the expiration of a large number of forbearance plans, we would see an increase in REOs in late 2022 and into 2023. However, this would NOT lead to a surge in foreclosures and significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) since lending has been solid and most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes. Forbearance is the act of refraining from enforcing mortgage debt. Delinquency is the failure to make mortgage payments on a timely basis. Foreclosure is when the mortgage lender takes possession of the property after the mortgagor failed to make their payments. “In foreclosure” is the process of foreclosure. REO (Real Estate Owned) is the amount of real estate owned by lenders. Here is some data on REOs through Q3 2022. This graph shows the nominal dollar value of Residential REO for FDIC insured institutions. Note: The FDIC reports the dollar value and not the total number of REOs. The dollar value of 1-4 family residential Real Estate Owned (REOs, foreclosure houses) increased from $784 million in Q2 2022 to $818 million in Q3 2022. This is increasing, but still very low. The bottom line is there will be an increase in foreclosures over the next year (from record low levels), but it will not be a huge wave of foreclosures as happened following the housing bubble. The distressed sales during the housing bust led to cascading price declines, and that will not happen this time.
Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in October -- Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.67% in October from 0.69% in September. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.46% in October 2021. This is close to pre-pandemic levels. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. b vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 2.34% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.41% in September). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.71% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.83%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.53% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.55%). So, Fannie is still working through a handful of poor performing loans from the bubble years. Mortgages in forbearance were counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they were not reported to the credit bureaus. Freddie Mac reported earlier.
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Continued to Decline" to 10.6% year-over-year increase in September - - S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3-month average of July, August and September closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Continued to Decline in September: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 10.6% annual gain in September, down from 12.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 9.7%, down from 12.1% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted a 10.4% year-over-year gain, down from 13.1% in the previous month. Miami, Tampa, and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in September. Miami led the way with a 24.6% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a 23.8% increase, and Charlotte in third with a 17.8% increase. All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending September 2022 versus the year ending August 2022.... Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -1.0% month-over-month decrease in September, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -1.4% and -1.5%, respectively.After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.8%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -1.2%.In September, all 20 cities reported declines before and after seasonal adjustments. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.
The Composite 10 SA is up 9.7% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 10.4% year-over-year.The National index SA is up 10.6% year-over-year. Annual price increases were lower than expected.
Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Declined in October; Down 3.2% since June -- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Declined in October; Down 3.2% since June: A brief excerpt: Here is a graph of the Black Knight HPI. The index is still up 9.3% year-over-year but declined for the fourth straight month in October and is now 3.2% off the peak in June.
• While near multi-decade low affordability would suggest home prices should be seeing strong declines, stalling inventory levels are holding home prices higher than current demand levels would suggest they should be
• Home prices fell 0.43% in October (-0.13% on a seasonally-adjusted basis), the smallest such decline – both actual and seasonally adjusted – since home prices peaked in June
• Likewise, home price growth cooled for the seventh consecutive month, to 9.3% in October from 10.6% the prior month, the lowest annual rate in >2 years
• The median home price nationally is now down 3.2% (-1.5% on a seasonally-adjusted basis) from its June peak but tight inventory has slowed the rate of decline in recent months
CoreLogic: House Prices up 10.1% YoY in October; Declined 0.1% MoM in October NSA - The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: US Annual Home Price Growth Slows to Half of Spring 2022 Peak in October, CoreLogic Reports: CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for October 2022.Year-over-year home price growth remained in double digits in October, at 10.1%, but continued to cool and was the lowest recorded since early 2021. Several factors are contributing to slowing appreciation: low inventory due to seller preferences to keep affordable mortgage rates that they have already locked in, homebuyer loss of purchase power and current economic uncertainty. Annual U.S. price growth is expected to taper off in the coming months, perhaps moving into negative territory by spring 2023, but then slowly ticking back into single digits as the year progresses.“Following the recent mortgage rate surge above 7%, real estate activity and consumer sentiment regarding the housing market took a nosedive,” said Selma Hepp, interim lead of the Office of the Chief Economist at CoreLogic. “Home price growth continued to approach single digits in October, and it will move in that direction for the rest of the year and into 2023.”...U.S. home prices (including distressed sales) increased 10.1% year over year in October 2022 compared to October 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.1% compared to September 2022.
Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 53% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 17% -- -Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 26, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory.
• Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 53% above one year ago. Inventory accelerated again, notching a seventh week in a row with yearly trend growth roughly at or above 2% higher than the previous week.
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were again down, dropping 17% from one year ago. This marks the twenty-first consecutive week of year-over-year declines in homeowners listing their home for sale.
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com.
Note the rapid increase in the YoY change earlier this year, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 29% YoY at the beginning of July. Then the Realtor.com data was stuck at up around 26% to 30% YoY for 14 weeks in a row. This was due to the slowdown in new listings, even as sales had fallen sharply.Now YoY inventory is increasing again with even higher mortgage rates, suggesting sales are off more than new listings.
9 Million Millennials Moved Back In With Their Parents This Year - The good news is that they still have jobs. The bad news is that soaring rents have forced millions of young Americans to move back in with their parents this year, according to a new survey. As Bloomberg's Alex Tanzi writes, about one in four millennials are living with their parents, according to the survey of 1,200 people by Pollfish for the website PropertyManagement.com. That’s equivalent to about 18 million people between the ages of 26 and 41. More than half said they moved back in with family in the past year. Among those who slunk back to their parents' basement, the surge in rental costs was the main reason given for the move. About 15% of millennial renters say that they’re spending more than half their after-tax income on rent. The disruptions of the pandemic, which triggered massive job losses as well as a spike in housing costs, have driven an unprecedented shakeup in living arrangements. In September of 2020, a survey by Pew found that for the first time since the Great Depression, a majority of Americans aged between 18 and 29 were living with their parents.
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Decreased $0.4 Trillion in Q3 - The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2022 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits fell to $143.3 trillion during the third quarter of 2022. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities decreased $1.9 trillion and the value of real estate increased $0.8 trillion. Household debt increased 6.3 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter of 2022. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 7 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 6.6 percent. The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP. Net worth as a percent of GDP is down $6.8 trillion from the all-time high in Q4 2021. This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations. The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952. Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008. In Q3 2022, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 70.5% - unchanged from 70.5% in Q2, 2022. This is the highest percent equity since the early 1980s. Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt. The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Note this graph was impacted by the sharp decline in Q2 2020 GDP. Mortgage debt increased by $209 billion in Q3. Mortgage debt is up $1.66 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 48.1% - unchanged from Q3 - and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bust. The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, decreased slightly in Q3, and is well above the average of the last 30 years.
Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Still Solid in Q3; Homeowners now relying on Home Equity lines to extract equity- Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Still Solid in Q3 Excerpt: Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 (sometimes called the Flow of Funds report) released today. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble. In Q3 2022, mortgage debt increased $209 billion, down from $258 billion in Q2, but still fairly high. Note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt. However, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW).
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 0.5% Compared to Same Week in 2019 -- - From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Performance Falls as Expected Over Thanksgiving Week -Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, U.S. hotel performance came in lower than the previous week and showed mixed comparisons to 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Nov. 26.
Nov. 20-26, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*
• Occupancy: 50.4% (-0.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$135.49 (+20.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$68.27 (+19.9%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels) The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue) and close to 2019 levels. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate continue to decline into the Winter.
Update: Framing Lumber Prices Close to Pre-Pandemic Levels- Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through December 6th. Lumber was at $413 per 1000 board feet this morning. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 54% from $907 a year ago. Prices are close to the pre-pandemic levels of around $400. There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May, although prices peaked much earlier this year. It is unlikely we will see a runup in prices as happened at the end of last year due to the housing slowdown. There was this press release yesterday announcing production cuts "due to very weak market conditions": Canfor Corporation (TSX:CFP) is announcing a temporary reduction in Canadian production due to very weak market conditions. The production will be reduced through curtailments at all solid wood facilities in B.C. and Alberta. This will remove approximately 150 million board feet in December and January. The curtailments will start to be implemented on December 19, 2022 and will range from one to four weeks across its Canadian operations. The Company will continue to adjust operating rates to align with market conditions and anticipates that the majority of its BC facilities will operate below full capacity in the New Year.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Inches Up in October - With the release of this morning's report on October's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.68% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.34% when we adjust for inflation. This is an increase from last month's 0.29% nominal and -0.06% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.52% nominal and -3.30% real. Post-Great recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015 with increases in 2012 and 2013. As a result of COVID pandemic stimulus measures, major spikes can be seen in April 2020, January 2021 (a December 2020 payment), and March 2021. The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013 and more recently, by COVID stimulus.The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2012 for inflation adjustment. But the 2012 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000. Nominal disposable income is up 121% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up 37%.
In No Mood for Soft Landing, Americans Keep Splurging, Outspend Inflation, No Problem - by Wolf Richter - Americans are still flush with all kinds of pandemic cash and are still getting gushed by it from states that send out “inflation checks” and similar stuff. And they’re getting big pay increases, and much bigger pay increases when job hopping as there’s still huge demand for labor. And they’re still sitting on all kinds of capital gains, real or imagined. And they’re spending, and they’re easily outspending inflation. Consumer spending on goods and services, adjusted for inflation – so “real” consumer spending – rose by 0.5% in October from September, seasonally adjusted, the biggest month-to-month increase in a year, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. Year-over-year, inflation-adjusted spending overcame some earlier weak-spots and rose by 1.8%. Spending rose not only on services, but also on durable goods, where spending was supposed drop as spending was supposed to shift to services, and it rose on nondurable goods. The slowdown in demand just hasn’t happened yet. Spending on services, adjusted for inflation, rose 0.2% for the month, and by 2.8% from a year ago. It remains below pre-pandemic trend. Services accounted for about 62% of total consumer spending; it includes healthcare, housing, education, travel bookings in the US, sports events, communication services, haircuts, auto repairs, subscriptions, streaming services, etc. Spending on durable goods, adjusted for inflation, is the most amazing thing. Americans just don’t give up on buying stuff. There have long been predictions that spending on durable goods – vehicles, appliances, electronics, furniture, etc. – would revert from the levels of the most-overstimulated-economy-ever back to pre-pandemic trends. But that hasn’t happened yet. And in October, spending leaped. Spending on durable goods, adjusted for inflation, leaped by 2.7% in October from November, seasonally adjusted. Year-over-year, spending rose 2.0%, thereby overcoming weakness earlier in the year. In terms of inflation-adjusted “chained 2012 dollars,” spending jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.32 trillion, the highest since the crazy stimulus splurge in March, April, and May 2021. Compared to October 2019, before the pandemic, spending on durable goods was up by 29% adjusted for inflation, as the consumer binge just keeps on binging. This goes to show that Americans are in no mood for a soft landing, or any landing, they’re in no mood for voluntarily cutting back and reducing demand which would be needed to remove some of the fuel from the inflationary fire. Americans are spending with gusto, and they’re outspending inflation, and they’re even spending on durable goods with surprising élan after the huge binge last year, and they’re just not wanting to slow down.
“Core Services” Inflation Gets Worse, “Core Goods” Inflation Backs Off: Yardstick for Fed’s Inflation Target, Core PCE, Nails What Powell Said Yesterday by Wolf Richter - 2d ago -Powell in his speech yesterday discussed the issues around inflation currently and expressed his frustration that inflation has moved mostly “sideways” at very high levels over the past 12 months, and hasn’t come down from those levels despite aggressive rate hikes. His whole discussion was focused on the “core PCE price index,” which the Fed uses as yardstick for its inflation target of 2%.“Over 2022, core inflation rose a few tenths above 5 percent and fell a few tenths below, but it mainly moved sideways,” he said. And so we got more of that today: The Core PCE price index (which excludes food and energy products) rose 5.0% year-over-year in October, a slightly slower increase than in September, a slightly faster increase than in August and July, and same as in June, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. This was the last inflation report before the Fed’s next meeting in two weeks. “Down months in the data have often been followed by renewed increases”: Powell. Powell also said that the Fed won’t be swayed by “a single month’s data.” The dip in October’s month-to-month data “followed upside surprises over the previous two months,” he said. The chart of month-to-month core PCE readings shows how “down months in the data have often been followed by renewed increases,” as he said yesterday, citing estimates of data that was released today. “It will take substantially more evidence to give comfort that inflation is actually declining. By any standard, inflation remains much too high,” he said yesterday. On a month-to-month basis, the “core PCE” price index rose 0.2% from the prior month, a slower increase than the 0.5% jumps in September and August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. The zigzag pattern of the month-to-month core PCE readings demonstrates what Powell meant when he said that the Fed won’t be swayed by “a single month’s data.” The overall PCE price index (which includes food and energy products) rose 6.0% in October compared to a year ago, down slightly from the increases in the prior months, and same rate as in December 2021. The entire group of inflation readings since November 2021 have been the highest since 1982. In other words, this measure hasn’t meaningfully come down either, despite aggressive rate hikes! And that was a big theme in Powell’s speech yesterday – that there just hasn’t been any meaningful progress yet in the fight against inflation:
Credit Card Debt Hits All-Time High Just As US Savings Rate Plummets To 17-Year Low -- While it is traditionally viewed as a B-grade economic indicator, the monthly consumer credit report from the Federal Reserve has become a closely-watched signal of consumer health because as we first noted half a year ago - and subsequently most economists and strategists have also noticed - there has been a surge in credit card usage by US households, a troubling sign suggesting that in lieu of disposable income more Americans are forced to max out their credit card to stay on top of soaring prices. And as the latest Consumer Credit report by the Fed released moments ago showed, in October the trend continued: Total consumer credit rose $27.1 billion, above last month's $25.8 billion if below the $28 billion consensus estimate. And while non-revolving credit (student and car loans) rose by a relatively pedestrian $17BN (down from $17.9BN last month, if above the 12 month average of $16.3BN)... ... it was revolving, or credit card, debt which once again surprise to the upside, rising by $10.1 billion, up sharply from $7.9 billion last month, if somewhat below the post-June average where double digit monthly increases have been the norm.
Heavy Truck Sales Up 11% Year-over-year - The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for November on Friday. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the November 2022 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Click on graph for larger image. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 489 thousand SAAR in November, down from 492 thousand in October, and up 11.4% from 439 thousand SAAR in November 2021. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Sales were solid in November.
Vehicles Sales Declined to 14.14 million SAAR in November -- Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for November. Wards Auto estimates sales of 14.14 million SAAR in November 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 5.1% from the October sales rate, and up 7.9% from November 2021. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for November (red). The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month. After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic). However, sales decreased late last year due to supply issues. It appears the "supply chain bottom" was in September 2021. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Sales in November were below the consensus forecast of 14.9 million SAAR.
$1,768 a Month, with $10,407 Down, 5% APR, on a Ford Pickup? Update on Q3 New-Vehicle Finance –Wolf Richter --To illustrate the data we’re going to look at in a moment, I “built” a 2023 model year F-250 Lariat on Ford’s website: MSRP $104,070. I could build something more expensive in the F-350 lineup. Ford suggested to finance it with Ford Credit. With a down payment of $10,407, and a term of five years, at 5% APR, I would end up with a monthly payment of $1,768. Screenshot from Ford’s website:There is a wide range of options and trim packages, particularly among trucks. I also “built” a 2023 F-150 Lariat, and it ended up with an MSRP of $90,780. Ford suggested to lease it from Ford Credit with $9,014 down, over 48 months, for $1,007 per month. Screenshot from Ford’s website:According to Experian’s State of the Automotive Finance Market report for loans originated in Q3 2022, the average monthly payment for the F-150 in Q3 rose to $893 a month; for the Ram 1500, it rose to $860; for the Chevy Silverado 1500, it rose to $808.Pickup trucks have long been among the bestselling new-vehicle segments in the US. They’re a huge part of the business. Ford didn’t take EVs seriously until Tesla threatened to build a pickup five years ago. That’s when Ford got religion and dove into EVs and has come out with an electric pickup to defend its core turf, while we’re still listening to Tesla threatening to come out with one. Ford lives and dies by its pickups.And automakers have taken them upscale over the past two decades because upscale is where the money is, and they’ve come out with high-end models and equipment packages that push pickups into the luxury segment, and they have jacked up prices, and they’re making huge profit margins on them.But other popular vehicles have big payments too. These are the average payments for some models, according to Experian:For all new vehicles, the average amount financed in Q3 – after down payments, trade-ins with spiking trade-in values, etc. – rose by 10.4% from a year ago to $41,665, according to Experian, up by 20% from Q3 2020 ($34,678).The average new vehicle loan rate rose to 5.2% in Q3, up from 4.1% in Q3 2021 and from 4.2% in Q3 2020So the average new-vehicle loan payment jumped by 13% year-over-year to $700 a month. Over the past two years, the average payment spiked by 24% (from $565 in Q3 2020).
U.S. PPI accelerated unexpectedly in November, frustrating hopes for quick pivot - U.S. producer prices rose faster than expected in November, in another sign that inflation isn't coming down as fast as the Federal Reserve would like. The producer price index rose by 0.3% from October, more than the 0.2% consensus, and October's number was also revised up to 0.3% from 0.2%. The picture was flattered by volatile food and energy prices: without those two elements, the 'core' producer price index rose 0.4%, the most since June. That left the core year-on-year rate of factory gate inflation at 6.2%. While that's the lowest reading in over a year, the result of big increases in energy prices last year passing out of the equation, analysts had forecast a steeper decline to 5.9%. More recent developments in energy markets also helped, with gasoline prices down 6.0% on the month. The headline annual PPI rate similarly declined only to 7.4% from an upwardly revised 8.1% in October. Analysts had forecast a slowdown to 7.2%. Analysts said the broad trend of disinflation in traded goods was still intact, however. In year-on-year terms, all of the main sectors of the index are falling with the exception of wholesale food prices, tweeted Charles Schwab's chief fixed income strategist Kathy Jones. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that most of the impulse for November's data came from final demand services, with financial services accounting for one-third of the total gain in services prices. It noted that service providers' profit margins expanded by 0.7 percentage points, fresh evidence that corporate pricing power has contributed largely to overall inflation this year, besides the better-documented narratives of higher energy and labor costs. U.S. stock futures reacted negatively to the news, which was seen as making it harder for the Federal Reserve to slow and then stop this year's sequence of interest rate increases. After a strong labor market report for November, market participants expect the Fed will have to raise rates above 5% to bring inflation down decisively. By 09:05 ET (14:05 GMT), Dow Jones Futures had reversed overnight gains to trade down 95 points, or 0.3%, while S&P 500 Futures and Nasdaq 100 Futures were down by fractionally more. However, the bond and currency markets were more relaxed, with Treasury yields staying broadly flat and the Dollar Index gaining less than 0.3% to trade at 104.82, flat on the day. U.S. PPI accelerated unexpectedly in November, frustrating hopes for quick pivot.
November producer prices: YoY measures mask recent sharp deceleration to mainly tolerable levels - Consumer prices for November won’t be reported until next Tuesday, but this morning we got the upstream producer prices. The news was mainly good, although not good enough to likely dissuade the Fed from its current course of interest rate hikes. This is one of those cases where YoY measures give a false picture in comparison with seasonally adjusted monthly data. YoY producer price growth decelerated, but is still very high: final demand prices increased 7.4%, “core” final demand less food and energy increased 8.1%, and commodity prices are up 8.2%: That’s down from their respective peaks, but still very high compared with the last 40 years pre-pandemic. But now let’s look at the seasonally adjusted monthly changes: Since June there’s been a marked deceleration in final demand prices, and an outright decline in commodity prices. So let’s norm June to 100, and see what we get: Final demand prices are only up 0.4% in 5 months; less food and energy up 1.4%; and commodities are down -6.1%. Onan annualized basis, the first measure is trending at 1.0% rate, while the “core” second measure is slightly problematic, increasing at a 3.4% annualized rate. A similar pattern appears when we break final demand down into goods vs. services. While YoY goods prices are up 9.6% and services prices up 5.9%: Final good services prices are up 1.5% in the past 5 months, while final demand goods prices are actually down -1.3%: In short, most of the upstream inflation problem in producer prices has been abating rapidly. Only “core” services prices remain elevated above levels tolerated without alarm before the pandemic.
Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined Slightly in November; Prices Down 14.2% Year-over-year -- From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Minimal Decline in November Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 0.3% in November from October. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 199.4, down 14.2% from a year ago. This is the first time the MUVVI has dropped below 200.0 since August 2021. The non-adjusted price change in November was a decline of 1.6% compared to October, moving the unadjusted average price down 12.4% year over yea. This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.The Manheim index suggests used car prices decreased in November and were down 14.2% year-over-year (YoY). This also suggests the consumer price index for used cars and trucks will be down again in November.It is likely this index will be down further YoY in December.
AAR: November Rail Carloads Down Slightly Year-over-year, Intermodal Down From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Total U.S. rail carloads in November were down 0.9% from last year, but the weekly average for the month (232,547) was slightly higher than the weekly average so far in 2022 (231,961). In November, eight of the 20 carload categories we track had gains. ... U.S. intermodal originations, which are not included in carloads, fell 5.4% in November — their ninth straight decline and 15th in the past 16 months. Year-to-date intermodal was down 4.8%. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2020, 2021 and 2022: Total originated carloads in November on U.S. railroads averaged 232,547 per week, down 0.9% from November 2021 but slightly higher than the average week so far in 2022. The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2020, 2021 and 2022: (using intermodal or shipping containers): U.S. intermodal originations, which are not included in carloads, fell 5.4% in November 2022 from November 2021 — their ninth straight year-over-year decline and 15th in the past 16 months. In 2022 through November, intermodal volume was down 4.8% (637,473 containers and trailers) from last year but was up 1.7% (211,419 units) over 2020. Much of what railroads haul in intermodal service fills the shelves of big-box and other retailers, and retailers’ demand for items to fill their shelves depends in part on inventory levels.
Trade Deficit increased to $78.2 Billion in October - From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in October, up $4.0 billion from $74.1 billion in September, revised. October exports were $256.6 billion, $1.9 billion less than September exports. October imports were $334.8 billion, $2.2 billion more than September imports. . Exports decreased and imports increased in October. Exports are up 14% year-over-year; imports are also up 14% year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and have now bounced back. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, exports of petroleum products are slightly positive. The trade deficit with China decreased to $28.9 billion in October, from $31.3 billion a year ago. The trade deficit was slightly smaller than the consensus forecast.
ISM® Manufacturing index Declined to 49.0% in November - The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.0% in November, down from 50.2% in October. The employment index was at 48.4%, down from 50.0% last month, and the new orders index was at 47.2%, down from 49.2%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49% November 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® - “The November Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the 50.2 percent recorded in October. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates expansion for the 30th month in a row after contraction in April and May 2020. The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47.2 percent, 2 percentage points lower than the 49.2 percent recorded in October. The Production Index reading of 51.5 percent is a 0.8-percentage point decrease compared to October’s figure of 52.3 percent. The Prices Index registered 43 percent, down 3.6 percentage points compared to the October figure of 46.6 percent; this is the index’s lowest reading since May 2020 (40.8 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 40 percent, 5.3 percentage points lower than the October reading of 45.3 percent. The Employment Index returned to contraction territory (48.4 percent, down 1.6 percentage points) after being unchanged in October at 50 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index reading of 47.2 percent is 0.4 percentage point higher than the October figure of 46.8 percent. Except for last month, the Supplier Deliveries Index hasn’t been at this level since February 2012 (47 percent). The Inventories Index registered 50.9 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the October reading of 52.5 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 48.4 percent is up 1.9 percentage points compared to October’s figure of 46.5 percent. The Imports Index dropped into contraction territory at 46.6 percent, 4.2 percentage points below the October reading of 50.8 percent.”This suggests manufacturing contracted in November. This was below the consensus forecast. Note that prices are falling.
ISM® Services Index Increased to 56.5% in November --The ISM® Services index was at 56.5%, up from 54.4% last month. The employment index increased to 51.5%, from 49.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 56.5% November 2022 Services ISM® Report On Business® - “In November, the Services PMI® registered 56.5 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than October’s reading of 54.4 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 64.7 percent, a substantial increase of 9 percentage points compared to the reading of 55.7 percent in October. The New Orders Index figure of 56 percent is 0.5 percentage point lower than the October reading of 56.5 percent. The PMI was higher than expected and the employment index was above 50.
November jobs report: decidedly mixed signals -- Since early this year I have expected employment to follow the halt in consumption growth, decelerating over time to a stall. This has only intensified given the major decline in growth in payroll withholding tax payments, which are near recessionary. This expectation was partially met today in that the three month average in employment gains since February, which had decelerated from over 500,000 to 289,000 through October, decelerated further to 272,000 through November.Aggregate payroll growth also declined YoY from 9.1% to 8.7%, but is still probably above the inflation rate. Here’s my in depth synopsis.
- 263,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 221,000. Government jobs increased by 42,000.
- The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report *delined* for the second month in a row, by -133,000 jobs. In the past 8 months, according to this report, only 12,000 jobs have been added! The above household number factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
- U3 unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%.
- U6 underemployment rate fell -0.1% to 6.7%.
- Those not in the labor force at all, but who want a job now, rose 167,000 to 5.550 million, compared with 4.996 million in February 2020.
- Those on temporary layoff declined -44,000 to 803,000.
- Permanent job losers rose 127,000 to 1,368,000.
- September was revised downward by -46,000, while October was revised upward by 23,000, for a net decrease of 23,000 jobs compared with previous reports.
- the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, was declined -0.1 hour to 40.9, and is down -0.7 hours from its recent February peak of 41.6 hours. This is consistent with the onset of a recession.
- Manufacturing jobs increased 14,000, and are at a level higher than before the pandemic.
- Construction jobs increased 20,000, also at a level higher than before the pandemic.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, declined by -2,600.
- Temporary jobs, which had been rising sharply, declined by 17,200. Since the beginning of the pandemic, about 300,000 such jobs have been gained.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less increased by 32,000 to 2,243,000, about 125,000 above its pre-pandemic level.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel rose $0.19 to $28.10, which is a 5.8% YoY gain, an increase of 0.3% from last month, vs. its 6.7% peak at the beginning of this year.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers declined -0.2% which is still above its level just before the pandemic.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 0.6%, and is up 8.7% YoY. This metric has been decelerating nominally almost consistently for the past 16 months. Compared with inflation through October, it is up only 0.9% YoY (recessions typically start when it crosses zero).Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, rose 88,000, but are still about -6% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments added 62,100 jobs, but are still about -4% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Professional and business employment increased by only 1,000, over 1,000,000 above its pre-pandemic peak.
- Full time jobs increased 92,,000 in the household report.
- Part time jobs decreased -302,000 in the household report.
- The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons rose 25,000 to 3,685,000.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate declined -0.1% to 62.1%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.
SUMMARY: This report was mixed, with both strong and decidedly weak points. On the strong side, wages increased sharply, improving the YoY gains as well. The underemployment rate fell. Construction and manufacturing jobs increased. YoY aggregate payrolls decelerated further, but probably improved vs. YoY inflation. While the 3 month average gain in payrolls continued to decline, in absolute terms it remains good.On the negative side, the manufacturing workweek has declined enough to be consistent with the onset of recession. Temporary and residential construction jobs declined. The number of short-term newly unemployed rose. All of these are leading indicators, and suggest further weakness to come. Aggregate hours worked declined, and are only up 1.3% in the past 9 months. Perhaps worse, employment as measured by the household report is only up 12,000 in total for the entire last 8 months, which is very much in line with the weak tax withholding data. In other words, I increasingly expect significant downward revisions to the recent establishment reports when they are revised next year.This mixed report, taken all together, is most consistent with a still-growing economy, but one which is weakening, the theme for the entire last 6 months or more.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 230,000 -The DOL reported: In the week ending December 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 230,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 225,000 to 226,000. The 4-week moving average was 230,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 228,750 to 229,000. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
TSMC to up Arizona investment to $40 billion with second semiconductor chip plant -- President Joe Biden is joining the founder of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. on Tuesday to announce the opening of the company’s second chip plant in Arizona, raising its investment in the state from $12 billion to $40 billion.The company will also announce it will be producing more technically advanced chips than originally proposed. The investment by TSMC is one of the largest foreign investments in U.S. history, and the biggest in the state of Arizona.Semiconductor chips are used in everything from computers and smartphones to cars, microwaves and health-care devices. The Covid-19 pandemic shined a bright light on U.S. dependence on Chinese manufacturers as lockdowns led to a global shortage of the high-tech chips.Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act into law in early August, allocating billions to lure manufacturers to produce the widely used chips domestically. The law includes $52.7 billion in loans, grants and other incentives as well as billions more in tax credits to encourage investment in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing.Once the TSMC plants open, they, along with existing investments, will produce enough advanced chips to meet the U.S. annual demand, 600,000 wafers per year, according to Ronnie Chatterji, National Economic Council acting deputy director for ndustrial policy who oversees CHIPS implementation.“It’s the foundation of our personal electronics, and also the future of quantum computing and AI,” Chatterji said. “At scale, these two [factories] could meet the entire U.S. demand for U.S. chips when they’re completed. That’s the definition of supply chain resilience. We won’t have to rely on anyone else to make the chips we need.”
Beacon Journal Asks Ohio Supreme Court to Order Akron to Release Names of Officers Involved in Jayland Walker Case, Other Police Shootings - Cleveland Scene - The Akron Beacon Journal has filed a lawsuit asking the Ohio Supreme Court to make the city of Akron and the Akron Police Department release the personnel records of officers involved in the police shootings of Jayland Walker, James Gross and Lawrence LeJames Rodgers.
“In short, in both its handling of public records requests and its recent protocol changes, Akron has taken the position that its uniformed civilian police officers can act with anonymity and in secret, even when using lethal force,” says the complaint, filed to the Ohio Supreme Court on Nov. 21.Akron police have declined to release the identities of officers, claiming the personnel files are confidential law enforcement investigatory records protected under Ohio’s Public Records Act.
Anti-LGBTQ Discrimination Bill With Bipartisan Support Introduced Again in Ohio House Committee - Cleveland Scene - Existing religious exemptions would still be a part of law if the bill is passed. State Rep. Michael Skindell, D-Lakewood, set off Tuesday on his 20th year leading the charge to provide anti-discrimination protections to LGBTQ Ohioans. With the introduction of HB 208 in the Ohio House Commerce & Labor Committee, Skindell and his Republican co-sponsor, state Rep. Brett Hillyer, said they have more bipartisan support than they’ve ever had in the past, though the uphill battle of the GOP supermajority isn’t without its challenges. The bill before the committee now, also called the Ohio Fairness Act, has been awaiting consideration since March 2021. It would change any part of the Ohio Revised Code regarding discrimination to include not just “sex,” but also “sexual orientation” and “gender identity or expression.” Existing religious exemptions would still be a part of law if the bill is passed. The earliest iterations of the bill didn’t have the support of businesses across the state, which Skindell said was a barrier to passage for the previous versions. Now, the sponsors say businesses are behind the bill, and employment laws that are inclusive to LGBTQ individuals are part of the “scoring” Hillyer said companies use to decide locations for expansion and job creation. Ohio Business Competes, a coalition in support non-discrimination policies for LGBTQ Ohioans, has seen its membership triple to more than 1,000 businesses, according to Skindell. “It is also important to mention that the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, the Ohio Manufacturing Association, Greater Cleveland Partnership, Columbus Chamber of Commerce, and the Cincinnati USA Regional Chamber of Commerce support this pro-business, non-discrimination legislation,” Skindell told the committee on Tuesday. Along with business support, 37 cities in the state have passed their own local ordinances against sexual orientation and gender identity discrimination in categories like housing and employment.
Masks could return to Sacramento schools as COVID-19 transmission levels rise - CBS Sacramento - The Sacramento Unified School District says its indoor masking requirement could be reinstated if COVID-19 cases continue to increase. The CDC's COVID community level for Sacramento County is now at a medium level due to an increase in hospitalizations. The CDC says the county's case rate is 85 per 100,000 people and the number of inpatient beds being used by patients with COVID-19 is 6.3 percent. The school district says if the county moves back into the high level, indoor masking will, once again, be required starting the following Monday. In April, the District lifted its universal indoor mask mandate approximately one month after California's guidelines did. Then, on June 6, the mask mandate returned after the CDC placed Sacramento County last week into the "high" level category of COVID-19 community transmission. Other nearby counties were also moved into the same tier, including Yolo, Solano, and Placer counties. Since then, the mask mandate was lifted once again. And while masking isn't required in the District's schools, wearing one is highly recommended.
Oswego school district closed due to illness — Oswego school administrators made the announcement today. No more school for the rest of the week. Why? More than half of everyone, students, faculty and staff, is sick. Superintendent Mitchell Shaw told us the district had a combined 200 kids and faculty members out just today. They’ve been hit hard with the flu,”RSV” and a stomach virus, many before Thanksgiving. Crews will spend the next two days deep cleaning, sanitizing, and fogging buildings. The plan is to reconvene with all activities on Monday. Shaw says they do not take closing school lightly, but simply feel this was the best way to allow everyone to get better.
NH high school cancels school, activities after respiratory illnesses outbreak— Hillsboro-Deering High School have canceled all after-school activities Thursday and school Friday because of an outbreak of respiratory illnesses. SAU 34 Superintendent Jennifer Crawford tells News 9 they're seeing a higher-than-usual rate of illnesses at all of their schools, particularly at the high school, where about 15% of the student body has been sick. Out of more than 350 students at the high school, more than 50 have been out sick recently. The flu, strep throat, RSV, COVID-19 and the stomach bug have been going around the district. Crawford said the number of students that are sick is about double their typical rate, so they decided to close down for these next few days to give the building ventilation and to make sure everything gets cleaned. She said there's also a significant number of staff members that have been sick, as well. “The threshold that we use to contact public health is we're at 15% of the student population," Crawford said. "And we also have a significant number of staff, and how many staff that you can have available for students’ supervision is always part of decisions that get made." The district is asking parents to keep students home if they're presenting any symptoms. It is aiming to open back up on Monday.
Flu closes Cleveland County schools - The Cleveland County School District is closing for two days because of increasing influenza cases. In a letter to parents Wednesday, District Superintendent Craig Dupuy wrote: "Over the past few days we have seen a significant spike in the number of positive flu cases here in the Cleveland County School District. "We have come to a point that a decision has to be made to either continue our school day activities with major disruptions due to absenteeism or close school and utilize AMI Days approved for our district in order to sanitize and break the spread of the virus." AMI stands for alternative methods of instruction, like attending class online. Cleveland County School District students will work with student packets or in Google classrooms. Dupuy said with more teachers missing school, it "becomes increasingly hard to supervise students both in and out of the classroom" and this often "leads to student misbehavior and student actions not usually displayed in the classroom setting." Arkansas is reporting "very high," or 12 out of 13, for influenza-like-illness (ILI) activity level, according to the Arkansas Department of Health flu report released Wednesday for the week ending Dec. 3. Arkansas has already reported 45 flu-related deaths this flu season, including one pediatric death. That's 15 more deaths than last week. Of these, 73% are not vaccinated.
Widespread illness causes Maine schools to close— It was reported earlier Tuesday that two schools in MSAD 75 were closed due to mostly respiratory issues. Those two schools were the latest in a trend that has parents concerned. "I think there's more to it now, just because, you know, having a pandemic happen, everybody's more aware of what's happening about things spreading," John Quinn, a father of a student at Longfellow, said when asked how he's feeling about the uptick in illness among students. Staci Webb, a grandparent of a student at Longfellow thinks we've become "more vulnerable" after masking. "Because of the pandemic and the fact that people were staying away from each other for two years. Now that they're getting exposed and, you know, are like more vulnerable to it," Webb said. A spokesperson for Maine's CDC said currently 17 schools have an open respiratory illness outbreak, and that the definition of an outbreak varies by condition. Currently, schools are required to report to Maine CDC. Any absenteeism greater than 15 percent and when that 15 percent is due to illness and the majority of cases are due to one type of illness, an outbreak is opened. While MSAD 75 is the latest in the outbreak stage, Portland Public Schools said they have to close at least two schools since Thanksgiving due to an outbreak.
At least 58 Kentucky school districts closed down due to illness - Schools in Kentucky and across the nation have been hit hard by a slew of respiratory viruses, and some parents are sending their children to school sick or sending them back to school while still infected. They cite an inability to take more time off work, concern about their children missing in-class instruction and a weariness from dealing with the pandemic, Alex Janin reports for the Wall Street Journal. In a typical year, Jackie Follansbee, a nurse in the Yakima School District in Yakima County, Washington, would send two to three children a week back home for returning to school sick, she told Janin. Now, it’s two to three “repeat offenders” a day, she says. Respiratory illness has been so bad in Kentucky that so far in November, 58 Kentucky school districts have closed or used non-traditional instruction days due to illness, affecting more than 186,500 students, according to the Kentucky School Boards Association. The Pike County Board of Education has amended its attendance policy to increase the number of parent notes that can be used for excused absences from school from five to 10, Kristi Strouth reports for the Appalachian News-Express. Students will continue to be allowed an unlimited doctor’s notes to excuse their absences. Janin reports that schools across the country are sending notes to parents urging them to not send their children back to school until their child is fever-free for 24 hours without medication and symptoms are improving. And in some cases, nurses are calling families to remind them that symptoms of viral illnesses can last for a week or more. In addition to an influx of respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, Covid-19, and the common cold, Kentucky’s latest influenza report shows that most of the 6,061 confirmed flu cases this year have been in children under the age of 10, followed by people between the ages of 11 and 20.
What families lost when the US lost universal free school meals -When the COVID-19 pandemic hit in early 2020, federal policymakers acted quickly and decisively to make school meals available to all children at no charge. This policy remained in effect for two and a half years. It was a game-changer. cross the country, school nutrition staff reported numerous benefits in the Food Research & Action Center’s (FRAC) Large School District Report, including removing the stigma from program participation and eliminating school meal debt to the benefit of both families and school districts. The policy also helped address household food insecurity, which rose significantly due to COVID-19 and allowed an additional 10 million students to eat free meals at school each day. Unfortunately, Congress let the policy expire in June. As a result, families were left scrambling and confused as they started the new school year unprepared to submit school meal applications — some for the first time if their child was not enrolled in the K–12 system prior to the pandemic. s the leaders of two national nonprofit organizations dedicated to the health and well-being of children — and, more personally, as parents ourselves — we remain astounded at Congress’ unwillingness to act given the record of success. We know of no child, family, or school helped by this decision. But we know that many have been hurt and are still attempting to get back on their feet following potential job loss, caregiver loss, and other challenges caused by the pandemic. or many children, school meals are a necessity, not a luxury; they can provide nearly half of daily calories and are often the most nutritious meals children receive. We have seen the benefits of easier access for families; now we are witnessing the perils of taking that access away.
Pennsylvania and Ohio educators pass resolution supporting railroad workers - The Pennsylvania and Ohio Educators Rank-and-File Safety Committee fully supports the Railway workers’ rejection of any sellout contract. Whether such contracts are forced on railroaders through conspiracies by the carriers and unions, or by the carriers and unions in concert with the Biden administration, courts and Wall Street—all such contracts deserve to be rejected in their entirety. Further, we call on the working class, in every location, sector and trade, to stand with the Railroad Workers Rank-and-File Committee in its historic struggle to unite railroaders and all workers against the ongoing attacks by the ruling classes on the basic rights of railroaders and the whole working class. Recent actions by the Biden administration and Congress threaten workers’ right to strike. Also under threat is the right to reject malicious contracts. Moreover, as union bureaucracies align with the administration and carriers, workers are left with no voice in this process. An “option” to ratify a miserable contract versus its imposition by congressional fiat is no “choice” whatsoever. That workers are blithely manipulated into such a position shows the complete absence of commitment to democracy by the ruling classes, and the complete betrayal by equally guilty union executives.
Ohio GOP Bill Would Strip Power from State Board of Education - A new bill introduced by Ohio Senate Republicans on Tuesday seeks to “restructure” Ohio’s State Department of Education, create a new administrative division under the governor’s office, and dramatically reduce the state Board of Education’s duties. This comes after two board members were unseated in November’s election, one a governor-appointed member before he sought election to the board, and another who was part of a movement on the board to rescind an anti-racism resolution that mired the state board in controversy. Senate Bill 178, introduced in the Senate Primary and Secondary Education Committee on Tuesday by state Sen. Bill Reineke, R-Tiffin, seeks to “improve the academic achievement and workforce skills of our students, to drive better outcomes in their education, and to prepare for more effective career readiness,” the senator told the committee. That will include creating a “state cabinet-level agency,” the Department of Education and Workforce, with the Division of Primary and Secondary Education and the Division of Career Technical Education under its umbrella. Those divisions will be directed by two people who will sit on the Governor’s Executive Workforce Board, according to Reineke. “The Department will be generally responsible for enforcing rules under the Ohio Administrative Code and adopting new rules as required by law,” with the design “meant to promote communication and collaboration between schools and education leaders to ensure accountability and transparency.” The State Board of Education, however, will be pared down as part of the bill to choosing the state’s superintendent of public instruction, implementing and enforcing teacher licensure rules, dealing with educator and staff conduct cases and considering school territory transfers. Other than that, it would be up to the General Assembly to decide what other roles and duties the board would have.
The College Essay Is Dead - Suppose you are a professor of pedagogy, and you assign an essay on learning styles. A student hands in an essay with the following opening paragraph: The construct of “learning styles” is problematic because it fails to account for the processes through which learning styles are shaped. Some students might develop a particular learning style because they have had particular experiences. Others might develop a particular learning style by trying to accommodate to a learning environment that was not well suited to their learning needs. Ultimately, we need to understand the interactions among learning styles and environmental and personal factors, and how these shape how we learn and the kinds of learning we experience. Pass or fail? A- or B+? And how would your grade change if you knew a human student hadn’t written it at all? Because Mike Sharples, a professor in the U.K., used GPT-3, a large language model from OpenAI that automatically generates text from a prompt, to write it. (The whole essay, which Sharples considered graduate-level, is available, complete with references, here.) Personally, I lean toward a B+. The passage reads like filler, but so do most student essays.Sharples’s intent was to urge educators to “rethink teaching and assessment” in light of the technology, which he said “could become a gift for student cheats, or a powerful teaching assistant, or a tool for creativity.” Essay generation is neither theoretical nor futuristic at this point. In May, a student in New Zealand confessed to using AI to write their papers, justifying it as a tool like Grammarly or spell-check: “I have the knowledge, I have the lived experience, I’m a good student, I go to all the tutorials and I go to all the lectures and I read everything we have to read but I kind of felt I was being penalised because I don’t write eloquently and I didn’t feel that was right,” they told a student paper in Christchurch. They don’t feel like they’re cheating, because the student guidelines at their university state only that you’re not allowed to get somebody else to do your work for you. GPT-3 isn’t “somebody else”—it’s a program.
New School administrators step up strikebreaking threats after part-time faculty reject "final" offer - Administrators at The New School are stepping up their threats to bring in replacements after striking adjunct professors overwhelmingly rejected the “last, best and final” offer from the private university in New York City. Nearly 2,000 part-time faculty members, members of the United Auto Workers Local 7902, have been on strike since November 16 to fight for livable wages, better health care coverage and job security. Last Thursday, the striking workers voted down the insulting deal, which contained a massive cut in real wages and higher insurance premiums, by 95 percent, with 1,821 workers voting “no” and only 88 “yes.” Part-time faculty, who make up 87 percent of The New School faculty, haven’t received a pay raise in four years. Although there is widespread support from students, faculty and other sections of workers at the university and outside to broaden the struggle, the United Auto Workers union has isolated the strike, kept students on starvation level strike benefits and signaled its willingness to lower its wage and other demands. Following the contract rejection, UAW Local 7902 immediately agreed to the The New School administration’s long-standing request for federal mediation. This has only emboldened university administrators. Over the weekend, a student group released a leaked email from The New Schools Talent Engagement Coordinator, which made clear that the university is seeking to hire “supplemental graders” from outside the school to grade students if the strike continues. The email said potential applicants could be assigned “a student in the Bachelor of Fine Arts (BFA) program in Fashion Design,” but “need not have a background in the tools used to design clothing patterns or in fabric draping and sewing but will review the stated learning outcomes and the student’s submitted work to determine sufficient progress toward those outcomes.” There were similar descriptions for other majors saying strikebreakers did not need any particular background to grade students. The release of the email provoked widespread anger from striking workers and students. As of this writing, nearly 3,000 students, parents and others have signed a change.org petition denouncing the plan, saying, “We came to the New School and paid good money to be taught and graded by legitimate professionals, and putting our grades in the hands of untrained, un-vetted temps is a complete betrayal of The New School’s duty to us as students and could result in serious damage to our academic transcripts. Additionally, it is a massive waste of our tuition dollars to hire hundreds of temp workers when that money could be better spent just paying the professors we already have, who are desperate for a contract that will bring them back to the classroom!”
Health care is unaffordable, even for those who are insured - Incidental Economist - Health care costs continue to rise, making access to necessary care increasingly unaffordable, even for those who have insurance. On MedPageToday, Paul Shafer, assistant professor at Boston University School of Public Health, explains the growing issue of being underinsured and dives into a potential solution: monthly out-of-pocket caps. He discusses his recent JAMA Network Open study in which he employed a hypothetical monthly cap on out-of-pocket costs for in-network care of $250 or $500. Their analyses showed that nearly a quarter (24.1%) to more than a third (36.8%) of enrollees with commercial insurance would experience a reduction in annual out-of-pocket costs under those limits, respectively, with declines in annual out-of-pocket costs of nearly or more than half. Shafer notes that implementing this model would “not be a trivial effort”; it could be piloted, evaluated, and considered as an option in plan offerings. Nonetheless, Shafer’s MedPageToday article is a call for insurers, employers, and policymakers to shift how they view health insurance affordability. Read the full post here!
Pharmaceutical Drugs at Cost + 15%? It’s Here Now -- It’s Medicare Month, and Medicare plan enrollments are occurring across the country. Those eligible are enrolling in Real Medicare (Parts A and B), Hybrid Medicare (the Medigap plans available under Part B), and Phony Medicare (the deceptively but legally labeled Parts C and D).Part C is called “Medicare Advantage,” but it’s neither Medicare nor advantageous. Part D covers drugs, and it’s also not Medicare, but a private insurance scam instead passed into bipartisan law during the Bush II presidency. Which means, this year again, that millions of Medicare-eligible victims of Big Pharma will have to 1) guess what drugs they’ll need for the following year, and 2) pay morally criminal prices for them. Which brings us to the new (as of 2022) venture from billionaire and Shark Tank investor Mark Cuban. The company name is Cost Plus Drugs, and its goal is simple. From their website:We started Mark Cuban Cost Plus Drug Company because every American should have access to safe, affordable medicines. If you don’t have insurance or have a high deductible plan, you know that even the most basic medications can cost a fortune. Many people are spending crazy amounts of money each month just to stay healthy. …If you are fortunate enough to have health insurance with a low deductible, the high cost of drugs is driving up the premiums that you or your employer pay, making getting health insurance expensive and challenging. The Mark Cuban Cost Plus Drug Company takes these problems head on.The plan is to “disrupt the drug industry and to do our best to end ridiculous drug prices.”Normally the drug prescribed for hookworm, Albendazole, can cost as much as $500 per course, making the drug out of reach for many in need. …Our cost for Albendazole is $26.08 per course. We mark that price up by 15% so we can continue to run the company and invest in disrupting the pricing of as many drugs as we possibly can.That makes the base price of the drug $30. Then we add on the actual cost, $3.00, that our pharmacy partners charge us to prepare and provide your prescription to you.That makes the sales price on this website $33. Far, far lower than the pricing available in the marketplace.
CDC encourages people to wear masks to prevent spread of Covid, flu, RSV - The Centers for Disease Control Prevention on Monday encouraged people to wear masks to help reduce the spread of respiratory illnesses this season as Covid, flu and RSV circulate at the same time. CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky, in a call with reporters, said wearing a mask is one of several everyday precautions that people can take to reduce their chances of catching or spreading a respiratory virus during the busy holiday season. “We also encourage you to wear a high-quality, well-fitting mask to prevent the spread of respiratory illnesses,” said Walensky, adding that people living in areas with high levels of Covid transmission should especially consider masking. The CDC director said the agency is considering expanding its system of Covid community levels to take into account other respiratory viruses such as the flu. The system is the basis for when CDC advises the public to wear masks. But Walensky encouraged people to take proactive action. “One need not wait on CDC action in order to put a mask on,” Walensky said. “We would encourage all of those preventive measures — hand washing, staying home when you’re sick, masking, increased ventilation — during respiratory virus season, but especially in areas of high Covid-19 community levels.” About 5% of the U.S. population lives in counties where the CDC is officially recommending masks due to high Covid levels. The CDC continues to recommend masking for anyone travelling by plane, train, bus or other forms of public transportation, Walensky said. People with weak immune systems and those who otherwise face a heightened risk of severe disease should also consider wearing a mask, the CDC director said. Walensky strongly encouraged everyone eligible to receive their flu shot and Covid booster. Flu vaccination coverage is lagging for at-risk groups — children under age 5, pregnant women, and at-risk seniors — compared with last year, the CDC director said. There is no vaccine for RSV. “I want to emphasize that the flu vaccine can be life saving and importantly, there’s still time to get vaccinated to be protected against flu this season and its potential serious consequences,” Walensky said. The flu has arrived early and hit the U.S. hard with hospitalizations at a decade high for this time of year. More than 8.7 million people have fallen ill, 78,000 have been hospitalized, and 4,500 people have died from the flu this season, according to CDC data. Fourteen children have died from the flu so far this season. More than 19,000 people were hospitalized with the flu during the week ending Nov. 26, nearly double the previous week, according to CDC data. People hospitalized with Covid also increased 27% during the week ending Dec. 2, according to CDC data. And respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, has been hospitalizing children at higher rate than in previous years. Walensky said RSV appears to have peaked in the Southeast and may be leveling off in the Mid-Atlantic, though circulation of the virus remains high in much of the nation.
CDC: New Omicron Subvariant XBB Spreading in U.S. - The omicron subvariant XBB was responsible for more than 5% of coronavirus infections this week – up from 4% of cases the week prior and nearly 3% the week before that, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s weekly variant update.. XBB is a combination of omicron subvariants BA.2.10.1 and BA.2.75. It is growing in prevalence along with BQ.1.1 and BQ.1 as BA.5 declines. XBB is also slightly increasing globally, according to the World Health Organization. Last week it increased from more than 2% of worldwide cases to nearly 4%, according to WHO’s weekly COVID-19 report. WHO said in a statement in October that XBB does not appear to be more severe than other omicron subvariants. But it added that there is early evidence that XBB poses a higher reinfection risk compared to the other sublineages. “Whether the increased immune escape of XBB* is sufficient to drive new infection waves appears to depend on the regional immune landscape as affected by the size and timing of previous Omicron waves, as well as the COVID-19 vaccination coverage,” WHO said in the statement. Leading infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci last week said that XBB did not lead to a major increase in hospitalizations in Singapore, where it was first found in August. “One thing we were encouraged with looking at other countries, such as Singapore, which had a big XBB, they had increase in cases, but they did not have a concomitant major increase in hospitalizations,” Fauci said. But he did add that XBB has an increased ability to escape protection provided by vaccines. “It doesn’t fall off the map, but it goes down,” Fauci said about protection levels. “So you could expect some protection, but not the optimal protection.” Meanwhile, COVID-19 transmission in the U.S. is on the rise, according to CDC data. The trend comes after many gathered for the Thanksgiving holiday and more people head indoors as cold weather spreads. The Biden administration has ramped up its push to get more Americans updated booster shots that target BA.4 and BA.5 as well as the original coronavirus strain in the hopes of staving off a potential fall and winter coronavirus wave.
New COVID subvariants are ‘the most immune evasive yet’ --- More than previous versions of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, the emerging BQ.1, BQ.1.1 and XBB subvariants — descendants of the dominant omicron strain — are capable of getting around the immunity gained from vaccination or prior infection, studies warn. Their wily evasiveness makes approved vaccines less effective at preventing infection and jeopardizes treatments meant to protect immunocompromised individuals, experts said, though noting that the latest booster is still better than no booster at all.
FDA Revokes Authorization for the Only Remaining COVID-19 Monoclonal Antibody Treatment - The last remaining COVID-19 monoclonal antibody treatment, bebtelovimab, is no longer authorized for emergency use in the United States, the Food and Drug Administration announced last week. Bebtelovimab does not appear to hold up against the Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, which make up more than 60% of COVID-19 cases nationally1 and are likely to continue gaining prevalence, the FDA said. Eli Lilly, the manufacturer of bebtelovimab, has stopped distributing the antibody treatment, the FDA said. The U.S. government is keeping its stock of the treatment on-hand, in case it can be useful against future variants. The evolution of COVID-19 has already rendered many monoclonal antibody treatments ineffective. The bebtelovimab news marks the removal of yet another tool from the arsenal to defend against COVID-19. “It is not a surprising move. I think it’s a little bit overdue,” Jason Gallagher, PharmD, a clinical professor at Temple University School of Pharmacy and clinical pharmacy specialist in infectious diseases at Temple University Hospital, told Verywell. “We’ve reached the point where the majority of new COVID infections are due to strains that bebtelovimab doesn’t work against, so it was time to pull the plug.” In a preprint study, researchers reported that Omicron BQ.1.1, BA.4.6, and BA.2.75.2 were all resistant to bebtelovimab. Neutralizing antibody levels were “low to undetectable” against BQ.1.1 four months after boosting.2 There were more than 300,000 reported COVID-19 cases in the last week.3 With the approach of colder winter months, cases are expected to increase. Given the rapid evolution of the virus, future variants could become even more transmissible and evasive of our current treatments.
Antivirals—not monoclonal antibodies—neutralize Omicron BQ.1.1, XBB - The Omicron BQ.1.1 and XBB SARS-CoV-2 subvariants evade the monoclonal antibodies imdevimab, casirivimab, tixagevimab, cilgavimab, bebtelovimab, and S309—but not the antiviral drugs remdesivir, molnupiravir, and nirmatrelvir (Paxlovid), according to a research letter published yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine. A team led by University of Tokyo researchers used a live-virus neutralization assay to test the efficacy of the monoclonal antibodies and antivirals against BQ.1.1 and XBB isolated from infected patients. Imdevimab, casirivimab, tixagevimab, cilgavimab, and S309 (precursor of sotrovimab) didn't neutralize BQ.1.1 or XBB, even at the highest concentrations tested. Bebtelovimab, which neutralizesOmicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.4, and BA.5, had no efficacy against BQ.1.1 or XBB. Neither combination of antibodies tested (imdevimab-casirivimab and tixagevimab-cilgavimab) neutralized BQ.1.1 or XBB. Because they are no match against the newer Omicron subvariants, the only monoclonal antibody medication still authorized by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to lower the risk of COVID-19 is tixagevimab-cilgavimab (Evusheld), and the FDA recently warned of its lack of efficacy in this context. The combination is reserved for people with impaired immune systems or severe adverse reactions to vaccination. BQ.1.1 and XBB were similarly susceptible to the antivirals remdesivir, molnupiravir, and nirmatrelvir as the wild-type virus. The 50% inhibitory concentration (IC50), in this case the level of antiviral needed to neutralize a subvariant, was lower by a factor of 0.6 with remdesivir and higher by factors of 1.1 and 1.2 with molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir, respectively. For XBB, the IC50 was lower by a factor of 0.8 with remdesivir and by 0.5 with molnupiravir and higher by a factor of 1.3 with nirmatrelvir, suggesting that they are efficacious against both BQ.1.1 and XBB in vitro. The researchers noted that, compared with older Omicron subvariants, BQ.1.1 and XBB have more mutations in the spike protein, the main target of COVID-19 vaccines and monoclonal antibodies, and thus are more likely to evade immunity. "The continued evolution of omicron variants reinforces the need for new therapeutic monoclonal antibodies for Covid-19," they wrote.
Why the Now-Dominant BQ COVID Strains Are Cause for Concern - The latest circulating COVID-19 variants have shown greater immune escape, which will likely lead to increasing cases over the coming months, experts said.New Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 together now make up more than half of all COVID cases in the U.S. (30.9% and 31.9%, respectively), according to the CDC's COVID Data Tracker, representing a rapid rise from early November when they represented about a quarter of all cases.David Weber, MD, MPH, of the UNC Medical Center in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, said the rising prevalence of these variants is likely attributed to ineffective immune responses from prior infections and vaccination, but healthcare providers should still rely on tried-and-true approaches, such as boosters, antivirals, and masking. "The bottom line is those variants, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, because they escaped immunity from natural infection ... we'll expect to see increasing proportions of them over the next couple of months," Weber told MedPage Today. "A model from Europe suggested that by December 1, [the variants] would be more than 50%, and they were correct," he added. "And they suggest by January 1, more than 80% of the circulating variants will be BQ.1 and BQ.1.1." In response to the increasing prevalence of these variants, the FDA announced this week that bebtelovimab, the monoclonal antibody found to be effective against earlier variants, would no longer be authorized for emergency use. Weber stressed that the best line of defense is the bivalent booster. The vaccine will be all the more important due to the uncertainty around BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, said Peter Katona, MD, of the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health in Los Angeles. "We know that they're taking over," he told MedPage Today. "It's a question of what direction they take us. Are they going to take us into a more benign situation, are there going to be things that we only have to be careful about -- because of long COVID and because of the people who get really sick."Katona noted that the long-term outlook on these variants is unknown at this point, so the focus is on treating patients with the options that are currently available and effective. Since the outlook for this winter is not clear, he emphasized the need to keep track of the local developments with these variants."It's a complicated mess," Katona said. "You have to look at where you are locally to kind of give you some guide."The bigger picture, according to Weber, is the ongoing rate of cases and deaths from COVID, irrespective of the variant. He pointed out that COVID-19 is still the third leading cause of death in the U.S., so until the rates of cases and deaths can be brought down, we should continue to expect new variants to develop."Everybody who gets COVID is a little incubator for developing a more efficient virus," Weber warned. "And because millions of people continue to get COVID worldwide, and we've already been through the Alpha, Beta, Delta, Omicron, BA.1 [and] 2, and then BA.4 waves -- so we've had five or six waves of this going over 3 years -- I don't think there's anything particularly surprising that we're continuing to see new variants."
How well does adapted Covid vaccine protect? - Should I get another booster? And if so, which vaccine should be used? These questions are asked by many citizens who have received the basic immunization consisting of usually three individual vaccine doses. A team of researchers from the German Primate Center – Leibniz Institute for Primate Research in Göttingen and Hannover Medical School studied antibody-mediated neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 variants following a fourth vaccination with different vaccine boosters. Their results showed that booster vaccination improved neutralization of SARS-CoV-2. Comparison of samples from those vaccinated with the BA.5-adapted vaccine and those who received the “classical”, non-adapted vaccine showed that vaccination with the BA.5-adapted vaccine resulted in slightly better neutralization. However, the currently circulating omicron subvariants BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1 exhibited marked antibody escape as they were only weakly inhibited after booster vaccination. These results indicate that booster vaccination is generally useful, but offer only reduced protection against infection by BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1 (The Lancet Infectious Diseases). Infections with SARS-CoV-2 still lead to many hospitalizations worldwide. Vaccination protects against severe disease, in part by inducing the production of neutralizing antibodies. However, some variants of SARS-CoV-2 can partially evade antibody-mediated neutralization. This is referred to as antibody evasion. In particular, the omicron variant carries numerous mutations in the spike protein that reduce sensitivity to antibody-mediated neutralization. Therefore, vaccines have been adapted to provide better protection against omicron subvariants. It is still unclear whether vaccination with the adapted vaccines leads to better neutralization of omicron subvariants than vaccination with the “classical”, non-adapted vaccines. In addition, it is unknown to which extend the newly emerged omicron subvariants BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1 are able to evade neutralization by antibodies. In collaboration with researchers from the Hannover Medical School, researchers from the Infection Biology Unit at the German Primate Center have measured how well antibodies in the blood of vaccinated individuals can neutralize different omicron subvariants. The results show that the blood of fully-vaccinated (three vaccine doses) individuals who have received a booster vaccination on top possesses higher neutralizing activity against omicron subvariants than the blood of fully-vaccinated individuals without booster vaccination. In this regard, neutralization of omicron subvariants was slightly more efficient following booster vaccination with the BA.5-adapted vaccine, compared to booster vaccination with the “classical”, non-adapted vaccine. “Although our study revealed that booster vaccination with the BA.5-adapted vaccine led to higher neutralizing activity compared to a booster with the “classical”, non-adapted vaccine, the difference was minor. However, in this context it is important to mention that we looked at a very early time point after booster immunization. It is therefore possible that differences become more prominent after some time, for example due to antibody maturation,” says Markus Hoffmann, first author of the study. In the course of their investigations, the researchers also found that almost all individuals with a booster vaccination had neutralizing antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 variant BA.5, which circulated during the summer season. In contrast, neutralizing antibodies against BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1 were only detected in some samples. “The omicron subvariants BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1 show high capacity for evasion from antibody-mediated neutralization and it can thus be assumed that these variants cause symptomatic infection in some individuals despite booster vaccination,” says Stefan Pöhlmann, head of the Infection Biology Unit at the German Primate Center, and adds, “Samples from fully-vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infection during the first omicron wave in spring 2022 in Germany and subsequent booster vaccination with the BA.5- adapted vaccine demonstrated high neutralizing activity against all omicron subvariants tested. Accordingly, these individuals may be protected against symptomatic infection by omicron subvariants.” “Our study shows that booster vaccination is generally useful to increase neutralizing activity against novel SARS-CoV-2 variants. Although BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1 strongly evade inhibition by neutralizing antibodies, partial protection against symptomatic infection by these variants can still be expected in immunized individuals, for instance by the T-cell-mediated immune response, which our study did not explicitly investigate,” Markus Hoffmann said.
Covid vaccine: Omicron boosters weaker against BQ.1.1 subvariant -- Covid shots designed to protect against the omicron variant trigger a weaker immune response against the rapidly emerging BQ.1.1 subvariant than the previously dominant strain, according to a new lab study. Scientists at the University of Texas Medical Branch, in a study published online Tuesday in Nature Medicine, found that the booster shots performed well against the BA.5 subvariant they were designed to target.But the boosters did not trigger a robust response when faced with BQ.1.1, the scientists found. Antibodies were about four times lower against BQ.1.1 compared to BA.5. These neutralizing antibodies prevent the virus that causes Covid-19 from invading human cells. People with a prior history of infection who received an omicron booster, however, had a stronger response to BQ.1.1. Antibodies that neutralize BQ.1.1 were nearly four times higher in this group compared to individuals with no history of infection who faced the subvariant, the scientists found. About 42% of adults in the U.S. have a prior history of infection, according to study published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last week. The results were based on adult blood samples collected from from August 2021 through May 2022. Omicron BQ.1.1 subvariant appears on track to become the dominant variant in the U.S. It currently makes up about 32% of infections in the U.S., according to CDC surveillance data. Omicron BA.5, on the other hand, now represents about 14% of new infections. The boosters performed the weakest against the XBB.1 subvariant, the scientists found. Antibodies were more than eight times lower against XBB.1 than omicron BA.5. However, people with a prior history of infection who receive the booster had three times as many antibodies against XBB.1 than people with no Covid history, according to the study.
Updated COVID shot doesn't spur strong response to newest strains | In a new University of Texas Medical Branch study, the updated bivalent (two-strain) mRNA COVID-19 booster marshaled a robust antibody response against the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 subvariants but not against the more recently emerged BA.2.75.2, BQ.1.1, or XBB.1 strains.The authors of the study, published yesterday in Nature Medicine, noted that the BA.2.75.2, BQ.1.1, and XBB.1 subvariants have additional mutations in the spike protein that may affect vaccine effectiveness. The researchers analyzed the neutralizing effects of three human serum panels collected from COVID-naïve participants (25 sera) 23 to 94 days after a fourth dose of the original Moderna or Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, 14 to 32 days after receipt of an updated booster after two to four doses of the original vaccine (29 sera), or 15 to 32 days after an updated booster from previously infected participants (23 sera) who had received two to four doses of the original formulation. The updated booster triggered a high level of neutralizing antibodies against BA.4/BA.5 14 to 32 days later, but it didn't generate robust neutralization against BA.2.75.2, BQ.1.1, or XBB.1. The researchers said that as of Nov 19, 2022, BA.2.75.2 and the BA.4/BA.5-derived sublineages BA.4.6, BF.7, BQ.1, and BQ.1.1 accounted for 0.8%, 4.4%, 7.8%, 25.5%, and 24.2% of US COVID-19 infections, respectively. The BA.5-derived substrain XBB.1, first identified in India in August 2022, is spreading quickly in Europe and has been found in the United States. "BA.2.75.2, BQ.1.1, and XBB.1 exhibit the greatest evasion against vaccine-elicited neutralization, suggesting the potential of these new sublineages to dethrone BA.5 as the dominant lineage in circulation," they wrote. "Individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection history develop higher and broader neutralization against the current circulating Omicron sublineages after the BA.5-bivalent booster." The authors said that the findings show that future boosters should match newly emerged variants. "Given the advantage of mRNA vaccine platform that can rapidly adapt to new antigen sequences, the key challenge is to determine the future booster sequence before new variants become prevalent in circulation," they concluded.
Pfizer seeks FDA greenlight for bivalent COVID dose in kids under 5 years - With respiratory illnesses ravaging children around the US, vaccine partners Pfizer and BioNTech announced Monday that they are seeking regulatory authorization to offer their bivalent COVID-19 vaccine to children ages 6 months to 4 years—but not as a booster; instead it would be part of an updated primary series.Currently, the bivalent vaccine, which targets the coronavirus omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 in addition to an ancestral strain, is only available as a booster dose to Americans ages 5 years and up. Although BA.5 is no longer dominant in the US, its sublineages now reign. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently published real-world effectiveness data indicating that the bivalent boosters increased protection against symptomatic COVID-19 infection over protection provided by the previous boosters. For now, children under 5 only have had access to a primary series—two small doses of Moderna's original vaccine or three small doses of Pfizer/BioNTech's original vaccine. Both were first authorized on June 17 after a rollercoaster regulatory process that lasted months. Now, Pfizer is asking the Food and Drug Administration to authorize an amended primary series to include the bivalent vaccine. The updated series would be two doses of the original vaccine followed by a third dose with the bivalent vaccine. "With the high level of respiratory illnesses currently circulating among children under 5 years of age, updated COVID-19 vaccines may help prevent severe illness and hospitalization," the two companies said in a joint press release. If authorized, the new primary series wouldn't help boost protection in young children already vaccinated with a primary series and still under the age of 5. But few children in this age group have received a primary series—and it's unclear if an updated primary series would move more parents to get their children vaccinated. According to the latest data from the CDC, only 2 percent of infants ages 6 months to 2 years and 4 percent of toddlers ages 2 to 4 have completed a primary series.
CDC Expands Updated COVID-19 Vaccines to Include Children Ages 6 Months through 5 Years | CDC Online Newsroom | CDC Media Statement - Following FDA action, today CDC expanded the use of updated (bivalent) COVID-19 vaccines for children ages 6 months through 5 years. Children ages 6 months through 5 years who previously completed a Moderna primary series are eligible to receive a Moderna bivalent booster 2 months after their final primary series dose. Children ages 6 months through 4 years who are currently completing a Pfizer primary series will receive a Pfizer bivalent vaccine as their third primary dose. Updated COVID-19 vaccines are formulated to protect against some of the more recently circulating viruses. Most importantly, COVID-19 vaccines are critical to providing ongoing protection as immunity wanes and the virus continues to mutate.The vast majority of children in this age group have not received any doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. CDC is working to increase parent and provider confidence in COVID-19 vaccines and improve uptake among the 95% of children who are not vaccinated or who have not completed the COVID-19 vaccine primary series. Parents should talk to their child’s health care provider to ensure their child is up to date on their COVID-19 and other vaccines.
Nonprofit Blood Donation Service Starts Matching Unvaccinated Patients With Donors - Swiss naturopathic physician George Della Pietra believes people worldwide should be free to choose whether to get a COVID-19 vaccine injection or not. He believes the same should hold for those receiving transfusions with “vaccinated” blood. “The problem is right now we have no choice,” said Della Pietra, founder of the nonprofit Safe Blood Donation service in 2021, matching unvaccinated blood recipients with donors in 65 countries. “It was very clear from the beginning that the COVID hype was way out of control,” Della Pietra said. “It was not as dangerous as they say it was. “As a naturopath, I can make no sense of this pandemic, which was never really a pandemic. It leaves space for so many explanations.” Della Pietra believes that an mRNA injection is more dangerous than the pharmaceutical companies are willing to admit. He said the growing numbers of adverse reactions are reason to question their safety and effectiveness. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed that vaccinated and boosted people made up 58.6 percent (6,512) of the COVID-19 deaths in August—up from 41 percent in January. “We can no longer say this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated,” Cynthia Cox, the Vice President of the Kaiser Family Foundation told The Washington Post in an article on Nov. 23.
Early-pandemic COVID-19 infections linked to depression - Patients who contracted COVID-19 during the first wave of the pandemic were 1.67 times more likely to show clinically significant levels of anxiety after 13 months, according to a British study published in Scientific Reports. The study was based on a survey of 3,077 UK adults, representing a cross-section of the general population. Approximately 9% of participants (268 respondent; 8.7%) reported COVID-19 at wave 1, 8.5% (234) reported COVID-19 at wave 2, and 9.1% (237) reported COVID-19 at wave 3. In total, 393 (12.8%) participants reported COVID-19 during waves 1, 2 or 3 (March through May 2020), the authors said. Those who reported COVID-19 during wave 1 had elevated symptoms of anxiety and depression at 1, 3, 5, and 13 months follow-up. "The current study also found that having a pre-existing mental health condition at the beginning of the pandemic was related to increased odds of contracting probable COVID infection over the following 13 months," the authors said. The authors found that having a pre-existing mental health condition was associated with a 31% greater odds of having probable COVID-19 over the following 13 months (odds ratio, 1.31). Several studies have shown that lockdowns and COVID-19 measures worsened mental health for many different groups in 2020, but this is one of the first studies to gauge how and if contracting COVID-19 early in the pandemic affected long-term mental health outcomes, the authors said. In a press release, the authors said the work was important for general practitioners (GPs) who may be seeing patients more than a year after their initial infection.
Study shows prone position limited breathing tubes for COVID-19 patients- Patients admitted to hospital with severe breathing difficulties due to COVID-19 are less likely to need a breathing tube (endotracheal intubation) if they lie face down in a prone position, but the position's effect on mortality or other outcomes is inconclusive, suggests an in-depth analysis of the latest evidence published by The BMJ. The review included 17 suitable trials involving 2,931 non-intubated COVID patients who were able to breathe without mechanical assistance and who spent an average of 2.8 hours per day lying prone, or on their stomachs. The authors were particularly interested in gathering evidence from studies that used prone positioning when patients were awake. High-certainty evidence from 14 trials showed that awake prone positioning reduced the risk of endotracheal intubation compared with usual care (24.2% with awake prone positioning v 29.8% with usual care). This translates to 55 fewer intubations per 1,000 patients (95% confidence interval, 19 to 87 fewer intubations), the authors said. Awake prone positioning was commonly used in the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thirteen trials examined awake prone positions in the context of mortality outcomes, and they did not show a significant difference in mortality between the two groups (15.6% with awake prone positioning v 17.2% with usual care). "Awake prone positioning compared with usual care reduces the risk of endotracheal intubation in adults with hypoxemic respiratory failure due to covid-19 but probably has little to no effect on mortality or other outcomes," the authors wrote.
Study on masks vs N95 respirators for health workers spurs concerns A studytoday in the Annals of Internal Medicine suggests that medical masks may offer similar effectiveness as N95 respirators in protecting healthcare workers (HCWs) exposed to COVID-19 patients in certain settings, but experts caution against that interpretation of the results. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends continuous wear of either medical masks or N95s when caring for COVID-19 patients, while the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) advises using N95s. Led by researchers at McMaster University in Canada, the randomized trial tracked COVID-19 infections among 1,009 HCWs directly caring for infected patients at 29 hospitals in Canada, Israel, Pakistan, and Egypt from May 4, 2020, to Mar 29, 2022. It is the first peer-reviewed randomized clinical trial comparing medical masks versus N95 respirators in preventing COVID-19 among healthcare workers. HCWs were randomly assigned to wear either medical masks or a fit-tested N95 filtering facepiece respirator (FFR) for 10 weeks (the fit-testing protocol wasn't defined). COVID-19 infection was confirmed using reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in 52 of 497 (10.46%) HCWs in the medical mask group, compared with 47 of 507 (9.27%) in the N95 group (hazard ratio [HR], 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77 to 1.69). A subgroup analysis showed that 8 of 131 (6.11%) HCWs in the medical mask group and 3 of 135 (2.22%) in the N95 group were infected in Canada (HR, 2.83; 95% CI, 0.75 to 10.72), as were 6 of 17 (35.29%) versus 4 of 17 (23.53%) in Israel (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 0.43 to 5.49), 3 of 92 (3.26%) versus 2 of 94 (2.13%) in Pakistan (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 0.25 to 8.98), and 35 of 257 (13.62%) versus 38 of 261 (14.56%) in Egypt (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.60 to 1.50). The authors cautioned that HCWs could have been infected outside of the hospital and that the results may not apply to other countries because of differences in treatment effects. Also, wide confidence intervals indicating a high degree of uncertainty, differences in self-reported adherence and baseline SARS-CoV-2 antibody status, and between-country differences in vaccination coverage and dominant circulating variants may have skewed the results.
Covid-19 can live on these 5 grocery items for days - At the height of the pandemic, Americans across the country were wiping down their groceries with antibacterial wipes for protection from Covid-19. And it turns out, we now know that doing so may not have been completely pointless. Actually, Covid-19 can live on the surfaces of certain groceries for an entire week, according to a new study conducted by the Food Standards Agency (FSA) in the U.K. Researchers purposely deposited the virus on produce and packaging like vegetables, baked goods and canned drinks, to observe how long Covid could live on their surfaces. The amount of virus placed on the grocery products was chosen based on an estimate of how much of the virus would likely land on the items through respiratory droplets, for instance, if someone sneezed or coughed near them. FSA concluded that the proportion of foods or food packaging with Covid-19 contamination on their surfaces “is extremely low, but not negligible.” When tested at different temperatures and humidity levels, based on the usual storage methods for certain grocery products, Covid-19 was able to live on these five products for days:
- Broccoli: Up to five days
- Cheese: Several days to a week
- Chilled meat: Several days to a week
- Plastic surfaces, including plastic bottles: Three days to a week
- Refrigerated fresh peppers: Up to a week
Coronavirus dashboard for December 7: the first winter wave of endemicity begins – (graphics) COVID is well on its way to becoming endemic, with a significant background level similar to what we have experienced in the last 8 months, and a surge during the winter months when people spend more time socializing together indoors. In that vein, it is apparent that, as expected, Thanksgiving get-togethers have triggered a new wave of COVID infections. Wastewater measures from Biobot show an apparent start to an exponential rise: This is true not just nationally but in every Census region, especially the Northeast (yellow in the graph below) but the West (green), where the increase is slower: The data is consistent with close to 400,000 “real” daily cases. Confirmed cases have also increased from about 37,000 before Thanksgiving to 55,800 (although some of that is a data dump from New Jersey). Deaths still remain very low at 322: And hospitalizations have increased from 24,000 in mid-November to 34,600, 6,000 of which is just in the past 7 days: More holiday get-togethers will only make this incipient winter wave worse. Unfortunately, part of this is the very poor uptake of the new bivalent booster shot. Per Dr. Eric Topol, “Only 1 in 3 American seniors have been boosted in [the past] 6 months.” Hospitalizations for seniors, at least in some States, are higher than they have been since the original Omicron wave one year ago: This is particularly exasperating, since the CDC just updated their data showing that being fully boosted lowers seniors’ risk of hospitalization by 80%: Although mitigation efforts like masking have all but evaporated, my template is that this wave will likely be similar to the BA.1.12.1 and BA.5 waves earlier this year, both of which peaked at roughly 125,000 confirmed cases and 500 deaths per day. This peak will probably be in about mid-January.
It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Another COVID Surge - The Atlantic -- When I called the epidemiologist Denis Nash this week to discuss the country’s worsening COVID numbers, he was about to take a rapid test. “I came in on the subway to work this morning, and I got a text from home,” Nash, a professor at the City University of New York, told me. “My daughter tested positive for COVID.” Here we go again: For the first time in several months, another wave seems to be on the horizon in the United States. In the past two weeks, reported cases have increased by 53 percent, and hospitalizations have risen by 31 percent. Virus levels in wastewater, which can provide an advance warning of spread, are following a similar trajectory. After the past two years, a winter surge “was always expected,” Nash said. Respiratory illnesses thrive in colder weather, when people tend to spend more time indoors. Thanksgiving travel and gatherings were likewise predicted to drive cases, Anne Rimoin, an epidemiologist at UCLA, told me. If people were infected then, their illnesses will probably start showing up in the data around now. “We’re going to see a surge [that is] likely going to start really increasing in velocity,” she said.An “unusually high concurrent spike” of virus cases in New York City, including flu and a mix of Covid-19 variants, led health officials on Friday to strongly recommend that people wear high-quality masks indoors and in crowded outdoor settings. The city’s health commissioner, Dr. Ashwin Vasan, advised New Yorkers to wear a mask at all times in public settings — including in stores, offices, elevators and schools, and on public transportation — even if vaccinated for Covid-19 or the flu. Winter has ushered in some of the pandemic’s worst moments. Last year, Omicron’s unwanted arrival led to a level of mass infection across the country that we had not previously seen. The good news this year is that the current rise will almost certainly not be as bad as last year’s. But beyond that, experts told me, we don’t know much about what will happen next. We could be in for any type of surge—big or small, long or short, national or regional. The only certain thing is that cases and hospitalizations are rising, and that’s The pandemic numbers are ticking upward across the country, but so far the recent increases seem especially sharp in the South and West. The daily average of reported cases in Mississippi, Georgia, Texas, South Carolina, and Alabama has doubled in the past two weeks. Hospitalizations have been slower to rise, but over the same time frame, daily hospitalizations in California have jumped 57 percent and are now higher than anywhere else in the United States. Other areas of the country, such as New York City, have also seen troubling increases.Whether the nationwide spike constitutes the long-predicted winter wave, and not just an intermittent rise in cases, depends on whom you ask. “I think it will continue,” Gregory Poland, a professor of medicine at the Mayo Clinic, told me. “We will pour more gas on the fire with Christmas travel.” Others hesitated to classify the uptick as such, because it has just begun. “It’s hard to know, but the case numbers are moving in the wrong direction,”
Meta-analysis estimates 29% vaccine effectiveness against long COVID - A meta-analysis of six studies estimates that one dose or more of COVID-19 vaccine is 29% effective against symptoms persisting for at least 3 weeks after infection, or long COVID. In the study, published today in Antimicrobial Stewardship & Healthcare Epidemiology, a team led by University of Iowa researchers analyzed data from six observational studies on vaccine effectiveness (VE) against long COVID published from Dec 1, 2019, to Apr 27, 2022. The studies were from Israel, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The 251,123 total participants had received at least one dose of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, or Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Among unvaccinated participants, the pooled prevalence of long COVID was 39.1%, compared with 37.6% among vaccine recipients. The most common symptoms were fatigue or muscle weakness, muscle pain, anxiety, impaired memory, sleep difficulties, and shortness of breath. The authors said the results suggest that COVID-19 vaccines are more effective against persistent symptoms when given before infection, although recipients of post-infection doses also had some protection. "COVID-19 vaccination both before and after having COVID-19 significantly decreased post–COVID-19 conditions for the circulating variants during the study period although vaccine effectiveness was low," they wrote. "Our findings can reassure that individuals with prolonged COVID-19 symptoms who have not been vaccinated that they should do so." The researchers called for more observational studies on other types of COVID-19 vaccines (eg, inactivated virus), vaccination after infection, VE of a booster dose and of mixed COVID-19 vaccines, and genomic surveillance. "A more standardized definition of post–COVID-19 conditions is also needed both for research and clinical purposes," they concluded.
Covid-19 roundup: Vaccination is 30% effective against long Covid -- Pfizer and Clear Creek Bio are partnering to develop a new Covid-19 treatment, long Covid may cost the U.S. economy almost $4 trillion, and more in this week's roundup of Covid-19 news.
- According to a new study from CDC and Westat Corp, almost 42% of U.S. adults have had Covid-19—but roughly 44% of this group say they have never been infected. For the study, researchers analyzed serologic testing data from 1,574 patients who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between August 2021 and May 2022. In total, 91.5% of participants had SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike antibodies, which suggest either vaccination or previous infection, and 41.2% had anti-nucleocapsid antibodies, which indicate a previous infection. Among the participants who had evidence of a previous infection, 43.7% said they had never had Covid-19, which suggests that their infection was asymptomatic. In addition, 25.5% of participants who had antibodies said they were unvaccinated, which means their antibodies came from an infection. Overall, positivity rates for anti-nucleocapsid antibodies were highest in Black adults (57.1%) and in those with less than a high school education (57.8%). According to the researchers, this suggests there may be health equity concerns regarding who is experiencing unidentified infections. "Younger adults and Black adults with unidentified infections might have been more likely to lack access to testing and to have unknowingly exposed others, resulting in disparities in community transmission," the researchers wrote. "In this way, undiagnosed infections could have amplified disparities in infection rates and outcomes." (Beusekom, CIDRAP News, 12/2)
- As current Covid-19 therapeutics lose their effectiveness against new coronavirus variants, Pfizer and biotech startup Clear Creek Bio are partnering to develop a new Covid-19 treatment to keep up with the constantly evolving virus. Through the partnership, which is in the discovery stage, the companies will research SARS-CoV-2 papain-like protease (PLpro) inhibitors to potentially develop an oral Covid-19 treatment. According to Clear Creek Bio, PLpro is "a unique viral protease that cleaves important host regulators of innate immunity such as ISG15, resulting in dampened antiviral immune mechanisms," such as viral replication. If the research is successful, Pfizer said it will pay Clear Creek Bio with "an undisclosed upfront payment," milestone payments, and royalties. "As COVID-19 continues to evolve, there is a significant need for oral antivirals with novel mechanisms of action," said Vikram Sheel Kumar, CEO of Clear Creek Bio. "We explored the druggable SARS-CoV-2 genome and identified PLpro as a promising and untapped target." (Twenter, Becker's Hospital Review, 12/7; Lagasse, Healthcare Finance, 12/7)
- Long Covid, which may affect up to 23 million Americans, may end up costing the U.S. economy $3.7 trillion, according to new estimates from David Cutler, an economist at Harvard University. Of this total, $2.2 trillion is expected to come from a reduced quality of life, $997 billion from reduced earnings, and $528 billion from increased medical expenses. According to Cutler, the individual cost of medical expenses from long Covid can range from around $3,700 to almost $14,000, with an average of $9,000. Greg Vanichkachorn, medical director of Mayo Clinic's Covid Activity Rehabilitation Program, said, "I think it is important to note that this, again, is an estimate. As new treatment measures come out, things could get more expensive or, hopefully, more affordable. That's the nature of the word 'long-haul' — it can be an open box of costs for a while." (Iacurci, CNBC, 12/1)
- The updated bivalent Covid-19 boosters, which target the omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5, are less effective against newer subvariants such as BQ.1.1, XBB, and BA.2.75.2, according to two new studies. In one study published in Nature, researchers from the University of Texas Medical Branch analyzed 29 blood samples. When compared to BA.5, they found that antibodies were four times lower against BQ.1.1 and eight times lower against XBB.1. Another study, which was published the same day in the Lancet, tracked the booster's effectiveness against XBB sublineages and found similar results. Although both studies were small, they are the first data on how the updated boosters are performing against the newer subvariants. Currently, BQ.1.1 is the dominant Covid-19 subvariant, making up 31.9% of all new infections. XBB and BA.2.75.2 currently make up 5.5% and 0.5%, respectively. (Twenter, Becker's Hospital Review, 12/7)
"What now?": Long COVID as a potential disability and its effects on workers - The Johns Hopkins News-Letter -- Throughout the semester, my conversations with Hopkins medical professionals about the cognitive, emotional and physical impacts of long COVID often left me wondering about the future. What type of support beyond medical treatment exists for individuals whose daily lives continue to be disrupted by long COVID? How are these individuals maintaining employment or keeping up with the demands of school? The impacts of long COVID are not limited to the personal lives and health of affected individuals, who often work reduced hours or are unable to work due to their condition. According to a Brookings report, which assessed the impact of long COVID on the American labor market, 1.6 million full-time equivalent workers could be out of work due to long COVID. At the time of the report, 10.6 million jobs were unfilled, meaning long COVID-related unemployment potentially accounted for 15 percent of the labor shortage. Furthermore, the Household Pulse Survey, conducted by the Census Bureau to assess the prevalence of long COVID, found that around 16 million working-age Americans (those aged 18 to 65) have long COVID today, and 2 to 4 million of these Americans are out of work due to long COVID. The annual cost of these lost wages alone is around $170 billion a year. In 2021, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) jointly issued guidance on how long COVID can be a disability under Titles II (state and local government) and III (public accommodations) of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 and section 1557 of the Affordable Care Act. This protects individuals struggling with impairments caused by long COVID from discrimination and allows qualified individuals to pursue relevant accommodations, referred to by the law as “reasonable modifications”. The ADA provides its own definition of the term disability: “A physical or mental impairment that substantially limits one or more major life activities of such an individual; a record of such impairment; or being regarded as having such an impairment.”This means that a person with long COVID is considered to have a disability if their condition or symptoms is a “physical or mental” impairment that “substantially limits” one or more major life activities.
Long-COVID symptoms in teens may evolve over time | CIDRAP - Long-COVID symptoms in adolescents may change over time, finds a study of nearly 5,100 non-hospitalized 11- to 17-year-olds in the United Kingdom published yesterday in The Lancet Regional Health-Europe.A team led by University College London researchers administered symptom questionnaires to 5,086 nonhospitalized preteens and teens 6 and 12 months after they underwent COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing from October 2020 to March 2021, before the Delta and Omicron variant waves. Of that number, 2,909 tested positive, and 2,177 tested negative. Participants were asked to recall any of 21 symptoms at the time of the PCR test. Symptoms were more common among participants who tested positive than those with a negative result at baseline and 6 and 12 months. For example, 10.9% of those who tested positive reported fatigue at all three time points, compared with 1.2% among those with a negative result.Ten of the 21 symptoms had a prevalence of less than 10% at all time points, regardless of test result. The other 11 symptoms declined greatly by 12 months in both those who tested positive and had them at baseline and in those who first described them at 6 months.The prevalence of shortness of breath and fatigue in those who reported them at 6 or 12 months appeared to increase at both 6 and 12 months in those who tested positive. But examination of individual questionnaires showed that the prevalence of these two symptoms actually declined at baseline or 6 months. The same pattern was also seen in participants who tested negative."The prevalence of adverse symptoms reported at the time of a positive PCR-test declined over 12-months," the study authors wrote.The authors also noted, "Some test-positives and test-negatives reported adverse symptoms for the first time at six- and 12-months post-test, particularly tiredness, shortness of breath, poor quality of life, poor well-being and fatigue suggesting they are likely to be caused by multiple factors." In a University College London news release, corresponding author Snehal Pinto Pereira, PhD, said that the findings suggest that researchers need to track individual disease courses using repeated measurement of the same participants over time. "Simply reporting repeated cross-sectional prevalences—or snapshots—of symptoms over time may obscure important information about long Covid in young people that has clinical relevance," she said.
Machine learning analysis suggests that there are four sub-phenotypes of long COVID - In a recent study published in Nature Medicine, researchers identified PASC [post-acute sequelae of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] sub-phenotypes depending on conditions diagnosed within 1 to 3 months of acute infection by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Studies have examined PASC conditions separately without providing evidence of co-occurring conditions. The sun-phenotypes or co-incident patterns, the degree to which PASC conditions and symptoms are co-incident or disproportionately developed among particular patients, could probably aid in revealing PASC pathophysiology. In the present study, researchers identified PASC sub-phenotypes by a data-driven approach based on machine learning. Four PASC sub-phenotypes were identified. Sub-phenotype 1 comprised 7,047 (34%) patients and was predominated by renal-associated, circulation-associated, and cardiac-associated illnesses (T-3, 8, 10), such as kidney failure, circulatory and cardiac disorders, and fluid and electrolyte imbalance. The median patient age was 65 years, and 49% of them were men. The patients had high acute COVID-19 severity [hospitalization (61%), mechanical ventilator needs (5.0%), and critical care admissions (10%). The sub-phenotype had the greatest percentage of SARS-CoV-2-positive patients (37%) during the initial COVID-19 wave (between March and June 2020). The sub-phenotype individuals had an elevated burden of comorbidities and were largely prescribed for anemia, circulatory disorders, and endocrine disorders. Sub-phenotype 2 was dominated by sleep, anxiety, and respiratory disorders. The sub-phenotype comprised 6,838 (33%) patients and was predominated by pulmonary disorders (T-4,7,9), anxiety, sleep disorders, chest pain, and headaches. The median age of the patients was 51 years, and 63% of them were female, with 31% acute COVID-19 hospitalizations. The sub-phenotype had the greatest fraction (65%) of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 between November 2020 and November 2021. Sub-phenotype 2 individuals were largely prescribed anti-allergy, anti-inflammatory, and anti-asthma medications, such as inhaled steroids, montelukast, and levalbuterol.Sub-phenotype 3 comprised 23% (n=4,879) of individuals with disorders of the nervous and musculoskeletal systems (T-1,5,6), including pain of musculoskeletal origin, sleep disorders, and headaches. The median patient age was 57 years, and 61% of them were female. The sub-phenotype comprised the greatest percentage of individuals with >5.0 outpatient setting visits before COVID-19 (78%). The sub-phenotype individuals were mostly prescribed with analgesic medications (such as ketorolac and ibuprofen).Sub-phenotype 4 comprised 10% (n=2,117) of individuals with mainly respiratory and digestive disorders (T-2, 4, 8). The median patient age was 54 years, and 62% of them were female, with the greatest rates for zero visits to emergency departments (57.0%) and the least mechanical ventilator use rates (one percent) and admissions to critical care units (three percent) during acute COVID-19. The sub-phenotype individuals were largely prescribed digestive system disorder medications.
Flight attendant shares his experience being intubated for 19 days with COVID-19 - In this interview for the Global Workers’ Inquest into the COVID-19 Pandemic, flight attendant Tim Yoder shares his experiences in early 2020. Tim caught COVID-19 in mid-March 2020 after being told he was an “essential worker” and had to continue flying despite feeling ill when multiple coworkers had already tested positive for COVID-19.
What patients find at long COVID clinics: rejection, outdated therapies, and unanswered questions -In early 2020 I developed a disabling case of long COVID, which sent me on a never-ending search for adequate care. Three of the most prominent long COVID clinics in Los Angeles turned me away because I wasn’t able to obtain a test for the virus when I fell ill, an experience shared by many patients who were infected early in the pandemic, when resources were still nonexistent or scarce. But in late 2021 I was able to make an appointment at Keck Medicine of USC’s COVID Recovery Clinic. I was hopeful that I would be seen by a doctor with experience treating complex chronic illnesses since some infectious diseases such as SARS, mono, and Lyme are known to result in long-term conditions.The same December, I was seen by a family medicine physician and physical therapist. The clinicians met with me for an hour and later referred me to a neurologist—who I wouldn’t be able to see for four months—and prescribed me an antidepressant that the physician said may help my headaches. I was told to follow up in one to three months despite the severe side effects that fractionated my work hours, made my hobbies of rock climbing and running impossible, and altered every aspect of my life. Before my appointment wrapped, I asked about possible treatments based on up-to-date long COVID research, but was turned down because of my symptom profile. I left defeated and hopeless.My experience is not unique. This summer, the US Census Bureau reported that close to 16 million American adults are living with long COVID, a debilitating condition that lasts at least four weeks beyond an initial coronavirus infection and affects multiple organ systems. It has been observed in all age groups, and has placed stress on the US healthcare model that relies on short doctor’s visits. Even though high-demand clinics, sometimes called post-COVID care centers, now offer services for the illness, many fail the very patients they have set out to help. Long COVID patients share anecdotes about how the clinics they are admitted to often turn a blind eye to the gravity of their needs and fail to incorporate knowledge learned from myalgic encephalomyelitis, or ME, and other infection-associated illnesses.
Long ICU Stays Lead to Extended Misery for Many Covid Survivors Bloomberg - For weeks on end, Kellie McCarthy fought the ventilator pushing oxygen rhythmically into her COVID-inflamed lungs with such ferocity that she was given a slew of medication to tolerate the invasive therapy. Muscle relaxants paralyzed her physique, whereas sedatives and opioids calmed her agitation. However even comatose, she was tormented mentally. The reptilian hiss of the tube in her windpipe impressed nightmares of writhing black snakes; she dreamed that her physician was making an attempt to kill her. “Get me out of right here, get me out of right here!” McCarthy remembers silently pleading.
High excess mortality as coronavirus death rates rise in Germany - Excess mortality has reached record levels in Germany and coronavirus deaths are higher than in any previous year. Nevertheless, governments of all parties at federal and state level have declared the pandemic over and lifted the last remaining protective measures. According to a press release from the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), average excess mortality so far in 2022 is 9 percent, meaning deaths this year are 9 percent higher than the median of the last four years, 2018-2021. Throughout most of the summer, excess mortality was in double digits: 9 percent in June, 12 percent in July, 11 percent in August and 10 percent in September. In October, excess mortality reached a record 19 percent. Calculations by the EuroMOMO network show that there is a similar trend in other European countries. A total of 92,000 people died in Germany in October, 14,560 more than the average per month for the last four years. The high number of additional deaths can be attributed in significant part to those dying as a result of infection with the coronavirus. According to the Robert Koch Institute, 4,334 people succumbed to the virus in October, significantly more than in the same period in pandemic years 2021 (2,493 deaths) and 2020 (1,482 deaths). Compared to previous pandemic years, excess mortality this year can no longer be readily attributed to deaths resulting directly from infection with the virus. In 2020, excess mortality was almost entirely consistent with the number of reported coronavirus deaths. In 2021, this was still largely the case. By 2022, these accounted for just under half of the excess mortality. However, several scientists believe that a crucial proportion of the higher excess mortality is due to indirect consequences of the pandemic, such as hospitals and hospital staff being overloaded. For example, Jonas Schöley of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock, Germany, notes that in the autumn of 2022, “only about half [of excess mortality] can be explained by registered COVID mortality.” For the remainder, “it is still open what the reason is.” However, he believes, “it is plausible that we will see more indirect effects in 2022.” Schöley points to the example of England and Wales. There, excess mortality is also caused by ambulances being delayed for more than 10 minutes. This is a consequence of the overloading of the health care system and thus indirectly of the coronavirus pandemic. Speaking to Der Spiegel magazine, Carsten Tschöpe, a cardiologist and head of the cardiomyopathy unit at Berlin’s Charité hospital, pointed out the potentially serious long-term consequences of a COVID infection. With the blood vessels, SARS-CoV-2 attacks “a very central structure of the body.” There is no organ in the human body that was not dependent on blood vessels, he said. “The organs lose parts of their function when they are no longer sufficiently supplied with blood. This causes global damage throughout the body.” According to the magazine, Tschöpe was convinced “that COVID late effects also contributed to the 19 percent excess mortality in October.” Other scientists also cite the earlier-than-usual onset of the flu epidemic and the circulation of other respiratory illnesses as possible contributors to the high excess mortality. The flu epidemic had been absent in recent years due to existing pandemic measures around the world. Once these were lifted, the flu wave returned particularly aggressively, creating a “twindemic” in which dangerous dual infections from COVID-19 and influenza are also possible.
New Zealand government suppressed COVID testing to keep infected people at work - Last week it was revealed that in late July New Zealand’s senior public health officials decided “it would not be appropriate to either recommend or require” asymptomatic people to test for COVID-19, even “if they are visiting a vulnerable person” or “have been in contact with someone [outside their household] who has tested positive for COVID-19.” The officials acknowledged that identifying asymptomatic COVID cases “may have benefits in terms of reducing transmission” of the deadly virus. Despite this, they wrote that “any asymptomatic testing (outside of household contacts) could have several unintended consequences,” including “additional people being (temporarily) taken out of the available workforce” if they tested positive. In other words, people with asymptomatic COVID should ideally remain ignorant of the fact so that they can continue working—and spreading COVID to others. Throughout the pandemic, asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases, including among children, have been a major source of transmission, with studies suggesting that roughly 40 percent of all cases show no symptoms. The recommendation to keep testing down appeared in a policy advice document prepared by the ministry of health’s COVID-19 Protection Framework Assessment Committee, led by Dr Andrew Old. It was written at the height of New Zealand’s second wave of Omicron, when COVID-19 was the country’s leading cause of death and there were more weekly deaths per capita than in most parts of the world. The advice was not made public at the time and was only released on November 30 by Newsroom journalist Marc Daalder following a request made under the Official Information Act. On Twitter, Daalder aptly compared the advice to former US president Donald Trump’s infamous statement in June 2020: “If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any.” The lack of systematic testing in the US contributed to the unchecked spread of COVID and more than a million deaths. The document provides further evidence that New Zealand’s Labour Party-led government adopted criminal policies that it knew would increase COVID transmission, including among “vulnerable people.” How many elderly and immune-compromised people died because the government refused to encourage routine, widespread testing?
Sick children turned away as crisis deepens in Australian hospitals - Australia’s health system is being pushed to breaking point, with new reports emerging daily of hospitals unable to meet demand as a result of chronic underfunding and crippling staff shortages exacerbated by surging COVID-19 infections. On Monday, the Royal Children’s Hospital in Melbourne, Victoria, released a statement advising families to seek alternative care because it faced “unprecedented demand” in its emergency department. The hospital said a high number of “extremely unwell children” were presenting to the ED, and it expected that some patients would wait more than 12 hours to be seen. Elective surgeries have been deferred at two major hospitals in Victoria. The Alfred Hospital, one of Melbourne’s largest trauma hospitals, cancelled all elective surgeries on Tuesday, reporting its highest level of staff sick leave since early 2022. At the Royal Melbourne Hospital, “Category 3” surgeries were deferred. These include joint replacements for mobility, eye surgeries to prevent blindness, and certain cardiac surgeries to prevent heart attacks. Ambulance Victoria issued a “code red” in Melbourne last week, meaning some emergency cases could not be reached on time, due to a “surge in workload and demand.” Ambulance Victoria has reported eight such alerts in 2022. According to ABC News, “code orange,” meaning people requiring “non-emergency care” must find alternative transport to hospital, was called 17 times in November alone. Ambulance and other health services are seeing major staff shortages due to COVID-19 infection. Some 1,635 public hospital and 126 ambulance workers in Victoria were unable to work due to COVID-19 last week, according to a report in the Age. In New South Wales, Australia’s most populous state, 1,897 healthcare workers were off work with COVID-19 on December 7. The ongoing staffing crisis means many health workers are forced to work double-shifts and overtime, placing them under immense psychological and emotional stress. The catastrophic conditions in hospitals are a product of “let it rip” COVID-19 policies, implemented with bipartisan approval since late 2021 and deepened by the federal Labor government of Anthony Albanese. Even the most basic of public health measures to stop the spread of the virus, such as testing and isolation requirements, pandemic leave payments, daily reporting of cases and mask mandates have been abandoned. This has been carried out in defiance of epidemiologists and medical experts, whose advice has been ignored because it conflicted with the demands of big business that there could be no further disruption to corporate profits. Amid a “fourth wave” of COVID-19, hospitals are facing a renewed influx of patients. More than 3,100 people are currently hospitalised with COVID across Australia, including some 1,500 in NSW. In NSW, Bureau of Health Information (BHI) reports reveal that the state saw its worst ambulance response times on record between April and June this year, smashing the record set in the previous three months. Urgent cases categorised as “P1” are supposed to be attended within 15 minutes, but half of patients under this classification waited more than 16.3 minutes. At Maitland Hospital in regional NSW, which has reported some of the worst wait time statistics in the state, the BHI reported that 70 percent of patients are leaving hospital emergency departments without receiving treatment. There was a 15 percent drop in the number of patients starting treatment on time compared to the same July to September quarter last year. Similar conditions exist across the country. Recent data from the Australia Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) for 2021‒22 show that nearly 40 percent of patients across the country waited more than four hours in emergency departments, the worst performance recorded in 20 years, up from less than 30 percent in 2017‒18. The longest wait times were in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Tasmania and Victoria. In Tasmania, 44.8 percent of all patients waited more than four hours for care. Of those triaged as urgent, just 43 percent were seen within the clinically recommended time frame. The ACT’s average emergency department wait time was the longest nationally for the fifth year in a row, with 47.6 percent of patients waiting more than four hours.
China eases anti-COVID measures following protests (AP) — China rolled back rules on isolating people with COVID-19 and dropped virus test requirements for some public places Wednesday in a dramatic change to a strategy that confined millions of people to their homes and sparked protests and demands for President Xi Jinping to resign. The move adds to earlier easing that fueled hopes Beijing was scrapping its “zero COVID” strategy, which is disrupting manufacturing and global trade. Experts warn, however, that restrictions can’t be lifted completely until at least mid-2023 because millions of elderly people still must be vaccinated and the health care system strengthened. China is the last major country still trying to stamp out transmission of the virus while many nations switch to trying to live with it. As they lift restrictions, Chinese officials have also shifted to talking about the virus as less threatening — a possible effort to prepare people for a similar switch. People with mild cases will be allowed for the first time to isolate at home, the National Health Commission announced, instead of going to sometimes overcrowded or unsanitary quarantine centers. That addresses a major irritation that helped to drive protests that erupted Nov. 25 in Shanghai and other cities. Public facilities except for “special places,” such as schools, hospitals and nursing homes, will no longer require visitors to produce a “health code” on a smartphone app that tracks their virus tests and whether they have been to areas deemed at high risk of infection. Local officials must “take strict and detailed measures to protect people’s life, safety and health” but at the same time “minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development,” the statement said. China’s restrictions have helped to keep case numbers low, but that means few people have developed natural immunity, a factor that might set back reopening plans if cases surge and authorities feel compelled to reimpose restrictions. Still, after three years spent warning the public about COVID-19’s dangers, Chinese officials have begun to paint it as less threatening. People with mild cases “can recover by themselves without special medical care,” said Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of the China Centers for Disease Control, on his social media account.
Wuhan Whistleblower: Former EcoHealth VP Says Covid "Man Made", Escaped From Lab -- Just hours after we find out that the Hunter Biden laptop not only wasn't "Russian disinformation", but rather was being actively covered up by social media, another "conspiracy theory" that wound up costing tons of honest truth seekers their social media accounts (including Zero Hedge, who was first to talk about the lab leak all the way back in February 2020), is inching closer toward being validated as reality. That's because a scientist who formerly worked at the Wuhan Institute of Virology has now gone on record and has said that COVID was "man-made" and leaked from the lab. The claims are according to the Post, who cited The Sun, who was provided a copy of the scientist’s forthcoming book. The gravity of the allegations, which I have written about at length over the last year, would make the global Covid-19 pandemic cover up among the most stunning lies ever perpetrated on modern humanity.The whistleblower, epidemiologist Andrew Huff, called the lab leak the “biggest US intelligence failure since 9/11". He detailed his allegations in his book “The Truth About Wuhan". Huff is the former vice president of EcoHealth Alliance, which studied coronaviruses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. He worked for the company from 2014 to 2016 and, per the Post:
Bats aren't safe from new strains of COVID-19: study - It’s been several years since scientists suspected the original strain of COVID-19 made the jump from bats to humans, and in that time, the virus has mutated and transformed into numerous variants.But has it changed so much that the bats scientists believe may have served as COVID-19’s original incubator are now immune to its effects?According to a new study published in the peer-reviewed journal Royal Society Open Science this month, the answer is no — bats are still at risk of catching COVID-19 from us. And the possibility of transmission across many other species is still a very real, researchers say.The study found that bats haven’t evolved defences against COVID-19, and are capable of being infected through largely the same process as humans: the spike proteins on SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) binding to specific receptors to enter host cells.“We were hoping to see really cool adaptive evolution happening as the virus got more used to humans and less used to bats, but we actually saw that there wasn’t a whole lot of change,” Gregory Babbitt, an associate professor with the Rochester Institute of Technology and one of the authors of the study, said in a press release. “Because this binding site has not evolved very much, there’s really not much stopping it from transmitting from humans to bats. If you look at the phylogenetic relationships of bats to humans, we’re pretty far apart on the mammalian tree. So it suggests that there would be pretty widespread cross-species infectivity, and the literature has shown there’s been a lot of evidence of that.”
US flu surge continues amid jump in COVID activity | CIDRAP - The nation's flu activity remained at very high levels last week, as hospitalizations soared and states reporting seven more pediatric deaths, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latest update. Meanwhile, the nation's COVID-19 markers reflect substantial increases in cases and deaths, with hospitalizations also on the rise, according to the latest daily averages. Also today, the CDC signed off on a recommendation for emergency use of the updated bivalent COVID-19 boosters in children as young as 6 months Most flu markers such as outpatient visits for flulike illness and percentage of respiratory samples positive for flu remained at high levels, similar to the previous week. Forty-six states reported flu at high or very high levels. Hospitalizations continue to rise steadily, with Department of Health and Human Services surveillance showing that 25,906 people were hospitalized with lab-confirmed flu infections last week, up from more than 19,000 reported the week before. The cumulative hospitalization rate is 9.6 times higher than the highest cumulative rate for this point of the year since the 2010-11 season. Most hospitalizations were due to influenza A, and, of subtyped samples, 80% were H3N2.Seniors continue to be the hardest-hit group for hospitalizations, followed by children ages 0 to age 4. Looking at the level by ethnicity, non-Hispanic Black people had the highest level, followed by Native American groups.Seven more pediatric flu deaths were reported, raising the national total to 21. The deaths occurred between late October and the first week of December. All were due to influenza A, and of the four subtyped samples, all were the H3N2 strain. The CDC's tracking of overall deaths from pneumonia, flu, and COVID-19 shows most mortality is caused by COVID-19, but the proportion of deaths due to flu is increasing.After several weeks of fluctuating cases punctuated by small rises, the 7-day average for new daily COVID-19 cases increased nearly 50% compared to the previous week and is at 65,569, the CDC said today in its weekly synopsis. The average for hospitalizations increased 13.8%, while deaths jumped by 61.7%.Other markers are also on the rise, with COVID community levels reported as medium or high in 48 of 52 jurisdictions. Test positivity also shows an increasing trend, with 38% of wastewater sampling sites reporting their highest levels since Dec 1, 2021.The CDC also released its latest Omicron variant proportion projections today, which show further increases in BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, which are predominant at 31.1% and 36.8%, respectively. Proportions of other lineages, including XBB, decreased this week.
Tripledemic Virus Spread Could Jeopardize Holiday Season - The 2022-2023 flu season that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says began early and is already the worst in the US in more than a decade accelerated during the Thanksgiving holiday week, offering a potential preview of trends for the US holiday season now underway. According to CDC Director Rochelle P. Walensky, MD, MPH, who spoke at a news conference on Monday, levels of flu-like illness tracked by the agency that account for medical visits with respiratory symptoms were high or very high in 47 jurisdictions during Thanksgiving week, an increase from 36 just the week before. Hospitalizations for influenza during the holiday week reached nearly 20 000—approximately doubling the previous week’s admissions.According to CDC records there have been at least 8.7 million illnesses, 78 000 hospitalizations, and 4500 fatalities caused by influenza since October. Thanksgiving week also brought 2 new pediatric deaths, bringing fatalities among children thus far to 14.“Hospitalizations for flu continue to be the highest we have seen at this time of year in a decade,” said Walensky during the media call, a clear signal of the season's early arrival. “I want to emphasize that flu vaccines can be lifesaving and importantly, there's still time to get vaccinated to be protected against flu this season, and its potentially serious consequences,” she added. COVID-19 hospitalizations have also begun to tick up, Walensky noted, a rise that was not unexpected based on the family and other gatherings during the Thanksgiving holiday. She cautions that the increase in cases and hospital admissions does not bode well as winter gets closer and people move indoors again where ventilation may not be optimal and “as we approach the holiday season where many are gathering with loved ones across multiple generations.”
Face masks come back to forefront amid triple threat of Covid-19, flu, RSV | CNN — Months after most mask requirements have come to an end and many people have stopped wearing them, some of the nation’s leading health experts are encouraging people to put their face masks back on – but this time, it’s not just because of Covid-19. As a triple threat of respiratory illnesses – flu, RSV and Covid-19 – sweeps the nation this holiday season, health officials are urging people to take precautions to protect themselves: get vaccinated, wash hands frequently and even mask up in certain circumstances. “There’s been a lot of attention directed to patients at higher risk of the complications of all of these illnesses – older persons, people who have any underlying illness, anyone who has immune compromise – I think, during this surge of this tridemic, if you will, there’s been a lot of ‘dust off your mask. Put your mask back on,’ ” said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center and medical director of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases. At this phase in the Covid-19 pandemic, even with other types of respiratory viruses circulating, masking recommendations based on an individual’s risk have been at the center of public health discussions, “rather than saying everyone in a community has got to put their masks back on,” Schaffner said. “I don’t want to go to mandates because I think over much of the United States, you will get a lot of pushback, and people will ignore it. Public health recommendations have to be acceptable,” he added. “The notion that during these kinds of viral surges, that people at risk should be wearing masks and being more cautious seems entirely reasonable – and I add to that, particularly in this part of the country, that we should be accepting, tolerant and indeed supporting people who do that, because they have a reason,” said Schaffner, who is based in Nashville. “Don’t look at this as a political statement or a social statement. This is a purely health-related statement.” Some communities across the country are considering bringing back certain masking recommendations as the wave of respiratory illnesses worsens.
COVID, flu, RSV in Philadelphia worsened by asthma as tripledemic swamps one hospital - The “tridemic” of COVID, RSV, and the flu is slamming hospitals around the country. At St. Christopher’s Hospital for Children, children are waiting hours to be seen in the emergency room as they struggle to breathe. Raspy cries and barky coughs echoed across the emergency room at St. Christopher’s Hospital for Children on a recent chilly morning in North Philadelphia. Kids had just started to stream into the waiting room, yet every available bed was already filled. Fifteen-month-old Zariya Sutton-Pack wheezed as she waited for medical attention on a hospital gurney. Her chest and rib cage heaved under a white cotton onesie. It looked as though she were trying to draw air through a collapsed paper straw. “I just burst into tears this morning. I was so scared,” said her mom, Tyshanek Sutton, still wearing the puffy black winter jacket that she hadn’t had time to take off. Fifteen-month-old Zariya Sutton-Pack. Jessica Griffin / Staff Photographer Within minutes of her arrival, emergency-room doctor James Reingold pressed a stethoscope to Zariya’s back. He didn’t like what he heard. A toddler her size should be taking 40 breaths per minute; her breathing rate was 52. “This is really nerve-racking,” Reingold said. Zariya needed to be admitted, but the hospital was full. St. Christopher’s sits in the bull’s-eye of what pediatricians are calling a “tridemic,” as RSV, flu, and COVID-19 strike all at once. All across the country, children’s hospitals are overwhelmed from an unusually early and severe onslaught of seasonal respiratory viruses. Philly kids have asthma rates twice as high as in the U.S. In virus season, they suffer twin scourges. In this swath of Philadelphia — the nation’s poorest large city — chronic disease and poverty have further aggravated the crisis. The neighborhood surrounding the hospital at Erie Avenue and Front Street has the city’s highest rate of childhood asthma. More than 90% of life-threatening asthma attacks in children are triggered by respiratory viruses, according to Reingold, chair of the hospital’s department of emergency medicine. When virus and asthma collide, the resulting cyclone of respiratory distress can quickly lead to a hospital emergency for a kid who lives near St. Christopher’s.
Parents of RSV survivor say they waited 24 hours for hospital bed to open — An 18-month-old was released from the hospital Sunday, after she survived the battle against RSV, spending four days in Summerlin Hospital. Her parents say it was their worst nightmare. Lauren Taylor explained one of the most difficult times she has faced as a parent and she showed a video of her 18-month-old daughter, Kyra Taylor, on oxygen while she was fighting for her life trying to get over this respiratory illness. "She had low oxygen, which they call hypoxia and fever, and they had to admit her right away," Taylor said. Recent Stories from ktnv.com The nightmare began about one week ago, Taylor says her daughter just got over the flu, but she noticed the troubled breathing continued, one night waking up at 4 am to see her daughter's belly going up. She says she could hear the forced breathing and her ribs coming out. Both Lauren and her husband, Jason Taylor, say that was enough for them to take their daughter to the ER, but when they arrived at Summerlin Hospital Thursday morning, there was a delay. "About 24 hours were spent waiting just to get a room for her, and then other kids were coming in and waiting for rooms as well," Taylor said. Lauren says she was concerned they were too late and that her daughter could face serious health issues, maybe even death. "They were aggressively trying to wake her up, bump her oxygen, increase requirements and they told me she was one of the most severe cases,” Taylor said. Lauren says the hospital was full, leaving her anxious to find care for her child as soon as possible. She says other sick children had already filled the available hospital beds, leaving Kyra waiting in the emergency room. "The nurses were also running frantic, there is not enough of them, there is not enough of a healthcare team," Taylor said. She says her daughter was finally given a pediatric bed 24 hours later after Kyra’s oxygen levels fell. Kyra spent four days in the hospital and was released this past Sunday.
FDA gives priority review to Pfizer RSV vaccine for older adults -- The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accepted Pfizer’s application for an RSV vaccine for older adults, and is expected to make an approval decision by the spring. Pfizer in a statement on Wednesday said the FDA is going to review its application under the priority review program, which reduces the approval timeline by four months. The end of the review period is expected to be May 2023, Pfizer said. In healthy adults and older children, RSV typically causes mild, cold-like symptoms that go away with moderate rest and self-care. But it can result in severe illness in infants and older adults. Like the flu, RSV season usually occurs during colder weather, though it’s been hitting unusually hard and early this year, contributing to a wave of respiratory infections that is overwhelming hospitals nationwide. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky said Monday there are record levels of flu and RSV infections and hospitalizations, and urged people to get flu shots and COVID-19 boosters. There is no vaccine for RSV in either adults or children. If approved, Pfizer’s candidate would become the first RSV vaccine for older adults. “With no RSV vaccines currently available, older adults remain at-risk for RSV disease and potential severe outcomes, including serious respiratory symptoms, hospitalization, and in some cases, even death,” Annaliesa Anderson, head of Pfizer’s vaccine research and development, said in a statement.
RSV may be leveling off, but flu cases are still soaring. Here’s the latest on respiratory viruses slamming hospitals. An unusually early respiratory virus season continues to pummel the U.S., with a trifecta of RSV, flu and COVID-19 cases overwhelming hospitals. “This year’s flu season is off to a rough start,” Dr. Sandra Fryhofer, board chair of the American Medical Association, said during a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention press briefing on Monday. “Flu’s here, it started early, and with COVID and RSV also circulating, it’s a perfect storm for a terrible holiday season.” But while levels of flulike illness are at “high or very high levels” in 47 jurisdictions — up from 36 last week — there may be hope on the RSV front. The CDC said Monday that there are signs that RSV, or respiratory syncytial virus, may have peaked in some areas of the U.S., like the South and Southeast, and may be leveling off in the mid-Atlantic, New England and Midwest. This is welcome news after a higher than usual spike in cases for this time of year, with RSV patients overwhelming children’s hospitals nationwide. Last month, the Children's Hospital Association and the American Academy of Pediatrics sent a letter to President Biden and Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra urging them to “declare an emergency to support the national response to the alarming surge of pediatric hospitalizations” from RSV and influenza. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said that while these new RSV stats are “encouraging,” hospitals are still swamped by other respiratory viruses. Over 77% of inpatient beds nationwide are currently in use, according to HHS. “Respiratory viruses continue to spread at high levels nationwide,” Walensky said. “And even in areas where RSV may be decreasing, our hospital systems continue to be stretched, with high numbers of patients with other respiratory illnesses.” Almost all children will have an RSV infection by their second birthday, according to the CDC, with such symptoms as runny nose, coughing and wheezing, RSV is usually mild and goes away on its own in 1 or 2 weeks. But RSV can also lead to more severe infections and is the most common cause of bronchiolitis and pneumonia in children younger than 1 year old.Although RSV cases may be leveling off, influenza hospitalizations continue to be the highest we’ve seen for this time of year in a decade. The CDC estimates that since the beginning of October, there have been at least 8.7 million illnesses, 78,000 hospitalizations and 4,500 deaths from flu, with hospitalizations for the week ending Nov. 26 nearly double what they were the previous week. “Over the last two years with the COVID protective measures — wearing masks, washing our hands, staying isolated — we really had almost nonexistent flu seasons, and so I think there’s probably a sense of complacency,” Fryhofer said. “We’ve forgotten how bad flu can be. But this year’s season [shows] that it can get really bad, and it’s here, so people need to get vaccinated.” This year, all flu vaccinations are quadrivalent, meaning they cover four strains of influenza, and this year’s formulation “seems to be a good match to circulating viruses,” according to the CDC. Those at higher risk of severe flu illness include children younger than 5 years old, adults older than 65, pregnant people and those with underlying health conditions. But among these higher-risk groups, the CDC said they are seeing lower flu vaccination rates this year compared to last year.
Dallas County reports first pediatric flu death of 2022 - Dallas County Health and Human Services has reported its first pediatric flu death this year as flu cases continue to climb unseasonably early. The county had no pediatric flu deaths during the 2021-2022 flu season as COVID-19 era public health measures kept the contagious virus at bay. That trend shifted as masking and social distancing dwindled in the last year.Pediatric hospitals are dealing with an onslaught of patients with the flu and RSV, or respiratory syncytial virus. Experts say children are finally catching the viruses they hadn’t contracted during the height of the pandemic.While most older children and adults fare just fine against the flu or RSV, some populations are at risk for serious complications from the viruses. Infants, children with compromised immune systems and the elderly are more likely to experience severe disease from the flu.Symptoms of the flu, RSV and COVID-19 look similar and can include cough, congestion, fever and body aches. Pediatricians are also reporting that many flu patients are experiencing gastrointestinal symptoms, like vomiting and diarrhea, which can cause dehydration. Good health hygiene practices, like regular hand washing and staying home when sick, remain some of the best ways to prevent the spread of respiratory illnesses. Vaccinations against the flu and COVID-19 are also available for most age groups.
2022 is the worst flu season in two decades. See the rise in charts. – This flu season’s season’s ferocious start has given way to record-shattering levels of transmission — and massive strains on the American health system. In the week ending November 26, more than 34,000 positive flu tests were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from labs around the US, as shown in the orange line on the chart below. That’s more positive flu tests than have been reported in any single week during any flu season on record, going back as far as 1997. The trajectory dwarfs the past six flu seasons, including the relatively bad 2019-2020 one that immediately preceded the start of the Covid-19 pandemic (shown in the black line). Some portion of this steep rise in cases is related to the fact that more people are being tested for the flu than in previous years. Over the month of November, about twice as many flu tests were done at clinical labs nationwide as during the same period last year (about 540,000 versus 265,000). More testing means more cases will get picked up.However, there are corroborating warning signs that this is truly a bad season. Flu hospitalizations have been off the charts and are rising quickly. In a press conference Monday, CDC director Rochelle Walensky said there have already been 78,000 flu hospitalizations this season, or nearly 17 out of every 100,000 Americans. That’s “the highest we’ve seen at this time of year in a decade,” she said. In keeping with past trends, the highest hospitalization rates are among adults 65 and older. What’s making these high hospitalization rates particularly concerning is their overlap with surges in other viruses causing many people to get sick enough to require admission. One of those is RSV, which has been packing pediatric hospitals for more than six weeks. And while Walensky noted there were signals RSV transmission was slowing in parts of the country, Covid-19 hospitalizations recently began to tick upward.
Weekly US influenza cases highest on record - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported through its weekly US influenza surveillance dashboard that during week 47 of 2022, ending November 26, the agency received 130,584 specimens, of which 25.1 percent were positive. This translates into more than 32,600 cases of the flu in one week. To place this number in context, the highest figure reached for the same week during flu seasons dating back to 2016 was under 5,000 (in 2019), six times lower. In fact, more positive flu tests were reported in the week ending November 26 than in any single week for any flu season as far back as 1997. Overall, for the 2022-2023 flu season, the CDC has estimated there have so far been 8.7 million illnesses, 78,000 hospitalizations, and 4,500 deaths. The cumulative hospitalization rate has reached 16.6 per 100,000, which “is higher than the rate observed in week 47 during every previous season since 2010-2011” according to the CDC. Close to 20,000 people were admitted to hospitals across the country in week 47, twice the number admitted to hospitals the previous week. These numbers are expected to continue their upward trajectory, given that nearly 55 million Americans traveled for the Thanksgiving holiday to visit friends and families. Unsurprisingly, those being admitted are both the oldest and youngest in the population, who are most vulnerable to such infections. The hospitalization rate among those 65 and older is 39.9 per 100,000 or 2.5 times the national average. For those 85 and older, that rate is at 71.3 per 100,000, more than four times the average. For those under five years of age, the rate is 28.4 per 100,000, nearly double the average. Currently, 44 states are registering very high influenza-like illness (ILI) activity. Only Alaska, Michigan, Vermont and New Hampshire have low to minimal rates. The percentage of outpatient visits for respiratory illness reported by the US Outpatient ILI Surveillance Network (ILINET), has reached 7.5 percent of all patient visits. This figure is three times higher than the national baseline of 2.5 percent and has already reached the peak of the 2017-2018 season, set in the middle of February 2018. Rates of outpatient visits for respiratory illnesses, as the figures from the CDC demonstrates, are highest among infants and toddlers, followed by young children, adolescents, and young adults. However, as the graph shows, since Thanksgiving, the rates of respiratory illnesses have turned sharply upwards for all age groups. That rates are highest among children comes as no surprise as influenza and RSV, like COVID, are respiratory illnesses transmitted via airborne aerosols with schools, universities and day care centers functioning as vectors for the transmission of these illnesses into the communities. As with COVID, these facilities have fully opened without an iota of mitigation measures in place, propelling the current explosive and early start to these illnesses.
New Yorkers Urged to Wear Masks Indoors as Covid, Flu and RSV Cases Rise - An “unusually high concurrent spike” of virus cases in New York City, including flu and a mix of Covid-19 variants, led health officials on Friday to strongly recommend that people wear high-quality masks indoors and in crowded outdoor settings. The city’s health commissioner, Dr. Ashwin Vasan, advised New Yorkers to wear a mask at all times in public settings — including in stores, offices, elevators and schools, and on public transportation — even if vaccinated for Covid-19 or the flu.
Children’s treatment shortages cause concerns as flu, RSV cases surge – Empty store shelves illustrate an over-the-counter medicine supply problem nationwide. With flu season in full swing, and so many people with respiratory illnesses, stores are scrambling to keep up. News4JAX checked pharmacies in the area on Thursday to see if they’re dealing with the same thing. They said there’s been a nonstop demand for flu treatments. And there’s been a shortage of amoxicillin since October. Now it’s completely out of stock in some places. “Normally this entire shelf would be full up, this entire shelf would be full up, and this one and this one as well,” said Kevin Duane, owner of Panama Pharmacy. Amoxicillin is out. “We’ve gone from, in this type of season, carrying 40 to 50 bottles of varying strengths of this drug only been able to get six, seven right now,” Duane said. This isn’t the ideal season to be short. Cases of three viruses — COVID, RSV, and the flu — are spreading. It’s been hard finding fever and pain-reducing medications, especially for children. Duane said they’ve had to get creative with their products. “If the liquid medicine is out of stock, we maybe have tried a chewable medicine, or like a capsule or a small tablet,” he said. “With some of the pediatric patients, it’s harder for them to swallow those. So we’ve been more creative, even having to make our own version from the powder in the capsules sometimes as well. So we do what we need to do in order to serve as our patients.” “It’s important to keep the lines of communication open between the doctor, the pediatrician, and the pharmacy so that, you know, for example, we can communicate to doctors about what we do and do not have in stock. And then doctors and pediatricians can tell us what they’re seeing and what they need so that we can better tailor our approach to that,” Duane said. He also says people shouldn’t buy these medications for “just in case situations”. If you’ve had symptoms for more than two days, the medicine likely won’t be as effective. And, don’t hoard. Take antibiotics and antiviral medications for the right reasons.
RSV surge pressuring German children's hospitals – DW – 12/06/2022 - - An infant who has just been resuscitated is admitted to a fully occupied children's hospital. For this to happen, a 3-year-old must wait the third day in a row for the heart operation he urgently needs.Then there is the child who was transferred 150 kilometers (93 miles) one night from Hannover to Magdeburg because every bed was full — and the other 21 nearby hospitals also had no space. There are hundreds of children who spend the whole night gasping and wheezing in the emergency care waiting area only to be sent back home. Or who are being treated in normal wards when they should really be in the intensive care unit"Children die because we can no longer care for them," warned Michael Sasse, senior physician of pediatric intensive care medicine at the Hannover Medical School (MHH). Drastic words for a drastic situation.For Mehrak Yoosefi, this warning comes dangerously close to reality. The pediatrician at Berlin's Charite hospital said: "All of the children's medical care facilities are currently operating 24/7. Our capacities are exhausted; we can no longer ensure care. We must ensure that we manage it so that no child dies in this time." This time — December in Germany — is the peak season for cold viruses. According to the Robert Koch Institute, the country's public health agency, almost one in 10 people in Germany is currently suffering from a respiratory illness — that equates to about 9 million people.The viruses are particularly rampant among schoolchildren aged between 5 and 14. The common and contagious Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is usually experienced as mild by most adults and older children — but it can be especially dangerous for young children and babies. It affects the respiratory tract and can cause severe illness, with some patients needing artificial respiration.The fact the virus is now hitting Germany with full force has a lot to do with the COVID-19 pandemic. Because of mask-wearing mandates and lockdowns, young children were less likely to be infected with RSV in recent years — and now the infections are catching up
People are getting sick with mystery illnesses and testing negative for COVID, RSV, and flu. - "The cold weather, the gathering indoors, all of that is good for respiratory viruses, and bad for symptoms," Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky said during a media briefing on Monday, stressing that multiple respiratory illnesses are here early this holiday season, challenging overstretched hospitals across the country. Flu cases and hospitalizations have soared since Thanksgiving, but some people are complaining that they're testing negative for the flu, RSV, COVID, while still extremely sick. Writer Cora Harrington said on Twitter that she got some "weird as hell virus" that made her "basically unconscious for a couple days," calling it "one of the strangest illnesses I've ever had." General practitioner Stephanie de Giorgio from the UK said, similarly, that some kind of "not-flu, not-covid, not-RSV thing" was going around her workplace, and "felt bloody awful," prompting a fever and sore throat. Doctors from at least three continents say that many different viruses — not just flu and COVID — are having a real "party" this year. People also shouldn't discount the idea that a COVID, RSV, or flu test taken early on may not necessarily go positive. Here's what to consider if you're feeling feverish right now. Winter illness season is off to an early start.To give you a sense of how many sick people there are in the US, here is what the CDC's weekly "influenza-like illness" map — which tracks how many people are showing up at doctor's offices with fevers and coughs or sore throats — looked like on Thanksgiving week in 2021: CDC Flu View Here is Thanksgiving week 2022: CDC Flu View This red-hot level of "influenza-like illness" is a barometer that's based on patient symptoms (not viral tests) so it likely encompasses many cases of flu, COVID, and several other respiratory diseases showing up on doctors' doorsteps. Trying to tell whether you've got the flu or COVID based on your symptoms? Good luck."Fever, muscle aches, cough, headache, those are going to be common," Dr. Roy Gulick, chief of infectious disease at New York-Presbyterian and Weill Cornell Medicine, told Insider. "You really can't tell the difference between flu and COVID." This year's spike in respiratory illnesses has also arrived earlier than usual, and Gulick says it's "caught people by surprise" who haven't gotten their flu shot or COVID booster. But it's not too late to roll up your sleeves, if you haven't yet.
‘India’s Measles Outbreak A Consequence Of Covid-19 Health Services Slowdown’ - What is the commonality between what we're seeing in China and what we're seeing in India, given the recent measles outbreak is in some ways an outcome of a public health system forced to divert attention to the Covid-19 pandemic? Is our disease surveillance effective, i.e. are we adequately tracking diseases as they emerge, to frame a public health response? We asked K. Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India, adjunct professor of epidemiology at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, and former head of cardiology at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences. Edited excerpts: I talked about measles in India and the relaxing of Covid-19 rules in China. How are these issues connected, in the larger context of disease surveillance? They're all connected in the sense that infectious diseases are going to be with us for quite some time to come. It was an incorrect notion that we could vanquish and completely eradicate all viruses and other microbes. Some, we have been successful [at eradicating], but mostly these are going to be part of our ecosystem. How we deal with these in terms of prevention, in terms of surveillance to detect outbreaks early on and take active containment as well as protective measures to enhance the immunity of individuals, are going to be the important measures that public health [policy] must pursue with a great deal of commitment, without letting the guard down. China did not use the term 'eradication'; they used the term 'zero-Covid'. That means they [aimed to] prevent any [new] case of Covid-19 in the population after the initial experience. The idea was to keep a lid on the Covid-19 virus, and completely prevent transmission, so that new cases would not occur even in terms of infections, let alone serious cases and hospitalisations. That was not a strategy that could endure In the initial stages, [a zero-Covid policy] was okay, because we were dealing with a novel virus. There was a considerable threat of serious disease, hospitalisation and death. Therefore, some of the measures taken in terms of lockdowns were perhaps justified, in the sense that [China was] very scared of the Delta [variant], because they saw the havoc being caused by Delta. But even when the Omicron [variant] came in, [China] continued the same strategy. And the population levels of immunity, which could have occurred because of some levels of natural infection, had not really happened. Also, many sections of the vulnerable population--especially the elderly--were not vaccinated enough, so they did not acquire immunity through vaccination. So [China] felt that if they opened up, [the vulnerable] were likely to face a further threat, and they continued the [zero-Covid] strategy far too long. If, however, they had opened up in stages, and had seen the evolution of the virus into the relatively less dangerous Omicron variant, they could have actually been in a far better place than they are now. Perhaps now that they are opening up, they will face some challenges initially, because of the under-vaccinated, vulnerable sections of the population that are likely to get exposed. But overall, I think they'll do better than they would have with a continued commitment to [zero-Covid].
Cases of canine flu surge in Texas, what to watch out for - While respiratory illnesses in humans – such as COVID-19, RSV and influenza – are on the rise in Texas, experts are saying that Texans should not only look out for their human family members this season but also for their furry ones. “We’re definitely seeing an outbreak of canine influenza in various parts of the state of Texas,” said Dr. Lori Teller, Clinical Associate Professor at the Texas A&M College of Veterinary Medicine & Biomedical Sciences. Canine influenza is quite similar to the human flu. If a dog catches the illness, it will feel lethargic and may develop a fever, cough and runny nose. The dog’s appetite may also diminish while it is sick. Humans cannot get canine influenza and vice versa. There is no proper treatment for a pup suffering from the flu. Though the symptoms are similar, Teller advised pet owners not to administer human medication to their animals. “Some of those can be extremely harmful to our pets,” she said. If you think your dog may be warm from a fever, Teller advised not to take your dog’s temperature. “A lot of times, your dog may feel warmer than usual. Keep in mind that a dog’s normal body temperature is higher than a human’s body temperature,” Teller said. “If they feel super hot, then it is likely they have a fever, and your veterinarian can confirm that.” Another respiratory infection a dog may get is Canine Infectious Respiratory Disease Complex, commonly known as kennel cough. A dog may exhibit similar symptoms to the flu if it has kennel cough but will generally be more sluggish and have more severe ailments with the flu. The current Texas canine influenza outbreak has only lasted about a month, Teller explained. “(It has been) a pretty significant outbreak,” she said. Canine flu spreads through tiny respiratory droplets, and the virus can live on a surface for up to two days.
Inhaling fumes, dust in workplace may increase rheumatoid arthritis risk: study - Inhaling certain workplace dusts and fumes may heighten the risk of developing rheumatoid arthritis, a new study has found. Breathing in such particles — from agents such as vapors, gasses and solvents — may also exacerbate the impacts of smoking and genetic susceptibility to the autoimmune disease, according to the study, published in the Annals of Rheumatic Diseases. “Our study shows that inhalable, mainly occupational exposures act as important environmental risk factors in [rheumatoid arthritis] development,” wrote the authors, a team of medical researchers from Sweden’s Karolinska Institute. Rheumatoid arthritis, a chronic joint disorder characterized by painful inflammation, affects up to 1 percent of the global population, the study authors noted.. While scientists are already aware that smoking heightens the risk of developing the disorder, the Karolinska team sought to determine whether breathing in workplace dust and fumes could also have an impact. To draw their conclusions, the researchers made use of data available through the Swedish Epidemiological Investigation of Rheumatoid Arthritis. The database includes 4,033 people newly diagnosed with the disease between 1996 and 2017, along with 6,485 individuals matched for age and sex but free of the disease. Each participant also received a score based on whether they carried genes that could raise their risk of developing the disease, according to the study. The type of rheumatoid arthritis diagnosis a patient receives is characterized by the presence or absence of a specific type of antibodies — with positivity for these antibodies indicating a worse prognosis, the authors explained. Patients can still have the disorder while testing negative for these antibodies. But about 60 to 80 percent of those with rheumatoid arthritis do test positive for the antibodies, according to the Arthritis Foundation. In the Swedish study, patients who tested positive for the antibodies veered slightly younger, tended to be women and were more likely to smoke than those who tested negative.
Regulators propose closing PFAS loophole - EPA is seeking to require industrial facilities to report “forever chemical” releases at lower thresholds and concentrations — a big win for environmental advocates with possibly significant implications for business groups. The proposed rule setting the new PFAS reporting requirements would address what critics have panned as a “loophole” for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances monitored through the Toxics Release Inventory. In a statement, EPA Administrator Michael Regan emphasized the action as further proof that his agency is prioritizing targeting the chemicals. “PFAS continue to pose an urgent threat to our country and communities deserve to know if they may be exposed because of the way these chemicals are being managed, recycled, or released,” said Regan. Under the move, PFAS would be added to a list of special chemicals of concern, mandating that companies notify EPA when they exceed very low release thresholds of 0.1 gram up to 100 pounds. Taking the action, the agency said, “will result in a more complete picture of the releases and waste management quantities for these PFAS.” The move is already sparking praise from environmental groups. “People have a right to know if PFAS are being used, manufactured or released in their community,” said Melanie Benesh, vice president of government affairs at the Environmental Working Group, in a statement. “It’s shameful that companies have exploited this loophole, leaving communities to face toxic pollution in the dark.” TRI requires that companies report their releases of various chemicals of concern to the government, helping regulators to keep tabs on potential risks to people and the environment. There are currently 180 PFAS monitored through the inventory due to provisions within the fiscal 2020 National Defense Authorization Act, which set a threshold of 100 pounds. But advocates have repeatedly raised concerns around how the Trump administration handled the final rule enshrining PFAS reporting.The former administration gave the chemicals a de minimis allowance, exempting industries from reporting amounts less than 1 percent of a total mixture (E&E News PM, Aug. 2, 2021). A subsequent review from the group Earthjustice found industries were likely significantly underreporting their PFAS releases due to the provision. Ongoing anger over the situation led to a lawsuit at the beginning of the year, with the National PFAS Contamination Coalition, the Sierra Club and the Union of Concerned Scientists all challenging the agency to end the exemption, and with EPA stating at the time that it ultimately intended to do so (Greenwire, Jan. 20).
Obesogens: Why it may be getting easier to gain weight – EHN --Obesity is an increasingly common disease in the United States. The most recent statistics gathered from 2017 to 2020 identify 41.9% of Americans as obese, with the prevalence of severe obesity nearly doubling to 9.2% over the last two decades.Obesity is a serious condition, increasing the likelihood of health problems like heart disease, stroke and type 2 diabetes — some of the leading causes of premature death.We’ve all heard the standard solutions: eat less, exercise more. But there’s more to it: chemicals in our daily lives make it easier to unintentionally gain weight and may even make it more difficult to lose it.These insidious chemicals are called “obesogens” and some doctors are incorporating this research into their practices and recommendations. Obesogens are a type of endocrine-disrupting chemical. To put it simply, endocrine hormones serve as your body’s “chemical messengers” that control many important parts and functions of the body. besogens, as endocrine-disrupting chemicals, hijack that messenger system and can wreak havoc on your health in a variety of ways. Obesogens are generally defined as chemicals that can cause the human (and animal) body to produce more fat than it normally would. Obesogens can include substances we often think of as fattening, like sugars, but also include an array of chemicals used in all sorts of products, such as BPA, phthalates and more. Obesogens work in many ways. The way they impact your body depends on the type of obesogen, and can include:
- Disrupting your metabolism, causing your body to produce new or larger fat cells
- Blocking fat cells from releasing stored fat to use as energy
- Altering your eating habits
- Impacting your gastrointestinal tract, which affects how food is digested.
Exposure to obesogens can occur as early as prenatal development. Obesogens can act across one’s lifespan - but prenatal exposures are most sensitive to their effects and can cause obesity later in life.
Asbestos exposure on the job was common, these chemical plant workers say - When LaTunja Caster started working at the Olin Corp. chemical plant outside of McIntosh, Alabama, she had no idea that asbestos was used in the production process. But when she became a union safety representative around 2007, she started to pay attention. In certain parts of the plant, "you would see it all the time," she said. "You definitely breathed it in." Six other people who worked in the plant, some with experiences as recent as this year, echoed her recollections about exposure to the potent mineral that has long been known to cause deadly cancers like mesothelioma and a chronic lung condition called asbestosis that can make it difficult to breathe. Though designated asbestos workers were given protective gear and had special training, electricians, millwrights and general maintenance staff got no comparable protection even though they, too, were exposed, they told ProPublica. The same was true of some contract workers. Carrie Jenkins, a longtime contract janitor, said she scraped dry asbestos off the locker room floor and threw away workers' protective suits, which were sometimes caked with the substance. She said she was offered no protective gear herself, and worked around asbestos even when she was pregnant. "They never told us how dangerous it was," she said. Andy Lang, a contract pipe fitter, worked in the asbestos-ridden part of the plant without protective gear on and off from the late 1990s to 2019, he said. Asbestos would go "flying" and land everywhere; anyone who spent time there would have breathed it in, he said, including him. Though he has not experienced lung problems, his sister did. A plant employee who worked a variety of jobs, she was diagnosed with lung cancer and died in 2017 at 64. He blames the chemicals she was exposed to at the plant. "There was nothing safe about it," he said.
Experts Warn 'Doomsday Scenario' for Colorado River Basin Possible in 2023 - The catastrophic chain of events that water and power authorities are working to prepare for amid the desertification of the Colorado River basin would amount to a "complete doomsday scenario," harming water and electricity supplies for millions, according to new reporting from The Washington Post.While the Biden administration earlier this year ordered water use cuts in Arizona, Nevada, and parts of Mexico that use water from the rapidly shrinking Colorado River, officials in the region are examining how they can keep Lake Powell and Lake Mead—the largest human-made reservoirs in the U.S.—from reaching dangerous "dead pool" status, in which water levels would drop so low that water no longer flows downstream. "You're not going to have a river... It would be a catastrophe for the entire system." According to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, with Lake Powell's surface already having fallen 170 feet, the reservoir is even closer to reaching "minimum power pool" status. If water levels drop another 38 feet in Lake Powell, which is currently a quarter of its original size, the surface could approach the tops of eight underwater openings allowing Colorado River water to pass through the Glen Canyon Dam. “The normally placid Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir, could suddenly transform into something resembling a funnel, with water circling the openings," reported the Post.That would force turbines which supply 4.5 million people with electricity to shut down, likely triggering financial struggles for people across southwestern states. The standard rate for low-cost power generated by Glen Canyon Dam is $30 per megawatt hour, but with the dam already producing 40% less power than it originally did, customers this past summer faced prices as high as $1,000 per megawatt hour as they sought electricity on the open market.The latest projections of the Bureau of Reclamation show that minimum power pool status could be reached as early as next July.Tom Buschatzke, director of Arizona's Department of Water Resources, told the Post that dead pool status would amount to "an ecological disaster," with the region's agricultural sector cut off from a crucial irrigation source."You're not going to have a river" in the case of Lake Powell reaching dead pool, he said. "It would be a catastrophe for the entire system."
Ranchers, greens on edge as BLM rewrites grazing rule - For the first time in almost three decades, the Bureau of Land Management is preparing a new rule to guide its management of cows and other livestock grazing on federal lands, a long divisive issue that has only grown more contentious in the West after two decades of drought. But advocates on both sides expressed skepticism that BLM’s update, which is expected to be released in draft form early next year, will include sweeping changes to the current regulations in place since 1995. That would be just fine with the livestock industry, ranchers and some local government leaders who say BLM has begun reaching out to them for input over the past several weeks. Industry advocates say they have emphasized that the current regulatory system on 150 million acres of BLM-managed lands provides a solid partnership between the regulators and ranchers that has worked for decades. “For generations, grazing permittees have guarded vast Western landscapes against development, encroachment, and destruction,” said Kaitlynn Glover, executive director of the Public Lands Council, a ranching industry trade group. In contrast, leaders with several conservation groups active on the grazing issue report BLM has not contacted them about their proposal. These groups have long argued cattle and sheep grazing plays an outsize role in rangeland degradation that must be addressed as the climate warms and drought conditions persist. “Livestock grazing rules on public lands need a fundamental overhaul,” said Randi Spivak, director of the Center for Biological Diversity’s public lands program. The stakes are high as a changing climate, drought and a near year-round wildfire season are making it increasingly difficult for federal rangelands to support a multiple range of uses, much less support wildlife. Not only is the issue complicated, it’s also fraught with political peril, and BLM over the years has sought to strike a careful balance with the ranching community. That’s been particularly true since the 2014 armed standoff between law enforcement and ranchers and militia groups in Nevada when the bureau unsuccessfully attempted to remove hundreds of cattle owned by rancher Cliven Bundy that were illegally grazing on federal lands. Environmental groups have proposed what they say would be significant improvements to how BLM manages federal rangelands. While they remain hopeful, several people active on the issue said they’re not expecting BLM to change much in how it regulates grazing activity. “My expectation is that the BLM will not address the primary problems with the grazing program in a way that will be meaningful or actually require any action to make changes,” said Josh Osher, public policy director for the Western Watersheds Project, which opposes large-scale grazing on federal lands. “What they will probably do is maintain policies that allow almost complete control by state offices and local managers, which means that any changes will be scattershot, inconsistent and not durable,” he said.
Major animal poaching ring busted by CA Fish and Wildlife — Six people are in custody and a seventh is being sought by authorities after California Fish and Wildlife game wardens busted an alleged poaching ring that spanned several years and involved the cooperation of a local grocery market.They’re called the E-Bike Crew, a group of six men who are believed responsible for dozens of illegal kills of local wildlife. On Monday, Ventura County District Attorney Erik Nasarenko announced that 21 charges have been filed against the men, including allegations of forgery, conspiracy, receiving of stolen property, animal cruelty and possession of an untagged bear. The investigation into the illegal poaching activities spanned more than a year. The men involved, identified in public records as Martin M. Bravo, Martin Bravo Sr., Jaime Mendoza Avila, Walfre Lopez y Lopez, Gilberto Lopez Hernandez and Cristian Lopez Perez, are accused of working in concert together to fraudulently obtain California hunting tags, licenses and other entitlements. The group allegedly worked with the cooperation of Juventino Reyes Guerrero, the operator of a Fish and Wildlife licensing desk located within Lizette’s Market in Piru. From June 2019 to October 2021, the men allegedly falsified and reprinted hunting tags to allow them to skirt California hunting regulations and harvest more animals than legally allowed. Their motivation, court documents allege, was profit, personal gain and, simply, entertainment. California has restrictions on the number of animals that can be taken throughout the year. The restrictions exist to protect California’s wildlife species and prevent over-hunting, which can cause devastating results for the local ecosystem.
Bill restricting big cat ownership made famous by ‘Tiger King’ heads to Biden’s desk - The Big Cat Public Safety Act, a bill to restrict private ownership of big cats like tigers that was made famous by the “Tiger King” Netflix series, passed by unanimous consent in the Senate and will head to President Biden’s desk. Biden is expected to sign the bill, having released a statement of support for the bill in July. The most famous advocate of the bill was Carole Baskin, the founder and CEO of Florida rescue facility Big Cat Rescue who was documented in “Tiger King” and subsequent documentary shows. She traveled to Capitol Hill multiple times to advocate for the bill. The House passed the bill in July in a 278-134 vote, with all votes against being Republicans and 63 Republicans joining with Democrats to vote in favor.Under the bill, possession of the big cats and cross-breeds would be limited to wildlife sanctuaries, state universities and certified zoos. It would also ban breeding of the cats except by a certified zoo or animal exhibitor. Those on display would need to be kept at least 15 feet away from the public or behind a permanent barrier to prevent contact.Current owners of big cats who would otherwise be restricted will be able to keep the animals, as long as they do not breed, acquire or sell any prohibited wildlife species; do not allow direct contact between cats and the public; and register the cat with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. That would gradually phase out private ownership of the animals.The bill takes aim at the “cub-petting” industry assailed by animal welfare activists, in which members of the public pay to play or take photos with tiger cubs or other big cats.Republican opponents of the bill have argued that it would duplicate federal processes, and proposed giving the Department of Agriculture authority to regulate the cats rather than the Department of the Interior.
In Alaska, a Mystery Over Disappearing Beluga Whales - When Roswell Schaeffer was an Iñupiaq kid growing up in Kotzebue, a small city in northwest Alaska, a healthy store of beluga meat was part of making it through the winter. Each summer, thousands of these small white whales migrated to Kotzebue Sound, and hunts were an annual tradition. Now, nearly seven decades later, Schaeffer is one of only a few hunters who still spends the late weeks of spring, just after the ice has melted, on Kotzebue Sound, waiting for belugas to arrive. Many people have switched to hunting bearded seals, partly out of necessity: There simply aren’t enough belugas to sustain the community anymore. In the 1980s, Kotzebue Sound’s beluga population began to dwindle, from thousands to hundreds, and then to the dozens or fewer that visit the region now. Kotzebue is not alone. Although some stocks are healthy, beluga numbers have fallen off in around a half-dozen regions over the last 50 years. Decades ago, hunting, commercial whaling, and other influences pushed the whales toward the brink. Now, even after hunting has ceased in some places, stresses such as climate change, increased ship traffic, and chemical pollutants are a gathering storm that threatens to finish the job. But some scientists think that understanding the way the whales respond to these stresses could end up being as important as understanding the stresses themselves. Belugas, like chimpanzees, birds, humans, and many other animals, create cultures by passing knowledge and customs from one generation to the next. With climate change and other human activities reshaping the world at an alarming rate, belugas will likely have to rely on innovative cultural practices to adapt — genetic adaptation is simply too slow to keep up. Cultural practices can become rote, however, and just like humans, other animals can hold onto traditions long after they’ve stopped making sense. One key question, according to Greg O’Corry-Crowe, a behavioral ecologist at Florida Atlantic University, is: Will culture carry the whales through? “When the change is so seismic, maybe, and so rapid, you’re trying to look for the innovators and the pioneers among the social conservatives,” O’Corry-Crowe said. At the same time, Indigenous people like Schaeffer are facing their own quandary. Continuing to hunt belugas may hurt the whales’ chance of rebounding, but if Indigenous groups give up the practice, they could lose knowledge that’s helped sustain them in the Arctic for thousands of years. Some cultural practices, like which language whales speak, may not have much impact on survival. But others, like techniques for finding food, can be critical. When killer whales go through lean times, scientists can see long-term knowledge at play: Killer whales move in pods, and when food gets scarce, the oldest females move to the front. They’re likely using knowledge from times when conditions were similar — possibly decades earlier — to show younger whales where to find prey. “It’s called the grandmother hypothesis,” said Sam Ellis, a behavioral ecologist at the University of Exeter. He and his colleagues have shown that killer whales with living grandmothers are more likely to survive than those without.Over the last few years, the quick pace of environmental change has sparked a string of scientific publications emphasizing the importance of animal culture for conservation. Some conservation groups have begun considering cultural traits as worthy of conservation as genetic signatures. The idea, O’Corry-Crowe said, is that maintaining diversity of animal knowledge optimizes opportunities for animals to figure out how to address new challenges, just as maintaining genetic diversity maximizes their opportunities to evolve new physical characteristics.When a pocket of animals with specialized knowledge is lost, “it’s not like it’s immediately replaced. And so you start to blink out unique cultures,” he said. “And that is a loss of adaptive potential going forward.”
A possible watershed moment for valuing nature - In the midst of a food and fuel crisis alongside soaring inflation, inequality and conflict around us, it might seem like an ill-suited time to make a plea for more investment to safeguard biodiversity. Perhaps even more so, after the recent high-profile weeks of negotiations of the UN climate summit COP27 with similar calls for climate funding.But it is past time to dismantle the misguided notion that nature is an infinitely available resource to be degraded without repercussion, or for its protection to be a “nice-to-have” bolt-on when funds allow. This could not be further from the truth. With the UN summit on biodiversity, COP15, over the next two weeks, the world could be poised to take a critical step toward more closely aligning human interests with those of the natural world. hat is significant going into COP15 is the level of engagement and planned presence of the business and finance sector, and they are further ahead of some policymakers in ambition. The #MakeItMandatory campaign calls on governments to make it mandatory for businesses and financial institutions to disclose their impacts and dependencies on nature by 2030. More than 300 businesses have signed up for this campaign. An emerging pattern of industries moving toward more nature positive behaviours could be the start of a positive “race to the top.” alf of the global GDP relies on nature to various extents. Whole business sectors depend on the bounty of nature, from food and agriculture to construction and tourism and beyond. This reliance also means that these industries are also heavily exposed to risks from nature loss.One million species are currently at risk of extinction. Given how much humanity relies on biodiversity, the threat we face from plummeting biodiversity loss is alarming. Biodiversity helps supply raw materials, clean air and water; improves the lives of one billion people who are undernourished; pollinates our crops and provides primary medicines for four billion people worldwide.
Extremely rare December tornado (snownado) in Shandong, China - An extremely rare December tornado (snownado) occurred on December 1, 2022, in the Shandong peninsula, China. This tornado was likely from a large cold air mass moving across a warmer ocean, the same mechanism as lake-effect, said Eric Wang, an extreme weather enthusiast. The latest official tornado nationwide was documented on November 24, 1952.
Tropical Cyclone “Mandous” forms in the Bay of Bengal, red alerts issued for parts of Tamil Nadu - A deep depression formed in the Bay of Bengal on December 7 and intensified into a Cyclonic Storm “Mandous” on December 8, 2022, becoming the third named storm of the 2022 North Indian Ocean cyclone season. The cyclone is expected to make landfall over northern Tamil Nadu on December 9, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall. At 03:00 UTC on December 8, the center of Cyclonic Storm “Mandous” was located about 340 km (211 miles) ENE of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka, and 470 km (292 miles) ESE of Jaffna, Sri Lanka, according to the RSMC New Delhi.1 The system is forecast to continue moving WNW and cross north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Puducherry and Sriharikota with a maximum sustained wind speed of 65 – 75 km/h (40 – 45 mph), gusting to 85 km/h (53 mph) on December 9. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a red alert for three districts of Tamil Nadu — Chengalpattu, Kancheepuram, and Villupuram. An orange alert was issued for Cuddalore, Myladuthurai, Nagapattinam, Tiruvarur, Thanjavur, and Pudukottai districts for Thursday. The IMD is warning residents Mandous will bring heavy rain through December 10 to Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikkal areas. Winds in excess of 40 km/h (25 mph), gusting to 60 km/h (37 mph) are forecast from December 8. The wind intensity may go up to 90 km/h (55 mph) on December 9 and 10. Authorities said the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and the State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) teams are kept ready in all district collectorates.
Severe flash floods hit Lisbon, Portugal - According to data provided by the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA), the Tapada da Ajuda weather station in Lisbon recorded 82.3 mm (3.2 inches) of rain on December 7, the Geofísico weather station in Lisbon recorded 80 mm (3.14 inches), Amoreiras (Lisbon LFCL) 58.5 mm (2.30 inches), G. Coutinho (Lisbon) 73.8 mm (2.90 inches), and Almada 50 mm (1.9 inches).1 The worst affected were the Alcântara, Campo Grande, Campo Pequeno, and Baixa areas of the Lisbon district. Portugal’s Civil Protection Authority said a 55-year-old woman was killed after being trapped in her basement in Alges. Her husband was rescued.2 The agency reported incidents of flooding and damage from severe weather in over 100 locations. IPMA has placed all Lisbon districts under red alert, the most severe of three levels, and forecast the rain to last until Friday, December 9.
Flash flood hits Johannesburg, leaving 14 people dead and 3 missing, South Africa - A group of people performing a baptism ritual along the Jukskei River in Johannesburg were swept away by a flash flood on December 3, 2022. According to Johannesburg Emergency Services and media reports, 14 people died, and a number of individuals are missing, as emergency teams continue with search and recovery operations. Several people have sustained injuries.1 Johannesburg emergency services spokesperson Robert Mulaudzi said officials repeatedly warned residents about the dangers of taking part in religious ceremonies along the river – particularly after weeks of heavy rainfall in the city left many streams full.2 “We have been receiving a lot of rain on the city of Johannesburg in the last three months, and most of the river streams are now full. Our residents, especially congregants who normally practice these kinds of rituals, will be tempted to go to these river streams. “Our message to them is to exercise caution as and when they conduct these rituals.”
Massive highway landslide in Paranà, Brazil - Heavy rainfall caused a massive landslide on the BR-367 highway near Guaratuba in Paranà, Brazil on November 28, 2022, leaving around 21 vehicles — 15 cars and 6 trucks — buried under the debris and an estimated 30 people missing. Two bodies have been recovered following the incident, 6 others were rescued while another 6 managed to escape the vehicles without needing assistance. The search for the missing is continuing, the state government said. Heavy rain has affected other areas of the state, including Antonina, Araucária, Campina Grande do Sul, Campo Largo, Curitiba, Guaraqueçaba, Guaratuba, Itaperuçu, Morretes, Piraquara, Quatro Barras and São José dos Pinhais.1 As of December 2, flooding affected 7 528 people and damaged 647 homes, of them 500 in São José dos Pinhais.
About 20 m (65 feet) of foreshore disappears during a swarm of earthquakes at Taupo volcano, New Zealand - About 20 m (65.6 feet) of foreshore in Wharewaka, Lake Taupo, New Zealand disappeared after a strong and shallow M5.6 earthquake and numerous aftershocks at Taupō volcano at the end of November 2022. As a result, the Taupō District Council is urging residents and visitors to keep away well back from the edge until they organize a temporary fence.1 “One of the most visible signs is the damage to the beach area at Wharewaka Point. While we know people are interested in having a look at what’s going on, we have serious concerns about the land stability there. “We estimate we’ve lost around 20 m of foreshore. Other agencies are investigating the cause, but it may be a result of land slumping with a resultant wave on the lake, rather than a wave alone. “Our team is working to organize a temporary fence but in the meantime, to keep everyone safe in this area we ask that you please keep yourself, your children and your vehicles well back from the edge.”
Large pyroclastic flow at Stromboli volcano generates a local tsunami, Italy - (videos)Intense explosions and large pyroclastic flows took place at Stromboli volcano, Italy on December 4, 2022, generating a small local tsunami. Seismic tremor at the volcano started increasing around 14:00 UTC, followed by lava overflowing from the North crater area at 14:10 UTC in conjunction with intense explosive activity. An intense explosion was registered at 14:16 UTC as well as several smaller pyroclastic flows at 14:31 UTC along the upper part of the Sciara del Fuoco. A very large pyroclastic flow was recorded at 15:19 UTC, producing abundant ash which temporarily blocked the view of the summit area. The flow quickly descended the Sciara del Fuoco and reached the sea, generating a local tsunami that reached 1.5 m (4.9 feet).
Melting ice created the perfect storm for a rapidly acidifying Arctic Ocean- Melting sea ice may evoke images of polar bears stranded on shrinking floes or dramatically collapsing ice shelves. But according to a study published recently in the journal Science, ice melt is triggering another ecological threat: a drastically acidified Arctic Ocean. This has diminished access to key chemical building blocks for organisms that call the Arctic home, potentially disrupting the entire food web in this region. An international team led by scientists at the University of Delaware found that the Arctic Ocean grew 50% more acidic from 1996 to 2020, changing three times faster than the rest of the ocean. “I thought it would be a little bit higher,” said study co-author Wei-Jun Cai, a marine chemist at the University of Delaware. “But I didn’t know it would be that high.” The Arctic is warming faster than any similar region on Earth, causing sea ice to retreat rapidly. Ocean water trapped under the ice is low in carbon dioxide, which dissolves readily in cold water. But as the icy shield melts, these frigid waters suck up carbon dioxide from the air, forming a carbon-rich layer that sits on top of the ocean. When carbon dioxide dissolves in water, some of it reacts to form acid. So Cai, who first reported this carbon-rich layer 12 years ago, wondered whether these Arctic waters might grow more acidic especially quickly. During 47 summer voyages to the western Arctic Ocean from 1996 through 2020, he and an international team of collaborators collected thousands of measurements. They documented the acidity and the level of aragonite, a mineral that declines in acidic waters but which marine organisms need to build their shells. Then, they compared their field observations to satellite measurements of the retreating ice. The jumps in acidity lined up with the periods of increased melting, the team found. To explain this, the researchers looked at the ocean’s chemistry. Ocean waters contain a natural chemical cocktail that buffers against changes in acidity. But as the Arctic ice melted, the injection of fresh water thinned this protective mix of minerals. This change made the frigid seawater grow especially acidic from the hefty dose of carbon dioxide made available by the receding ice. “It’s not even just a double whammy,” “There are just lots of things happening at the same time.”
Deal at N.J. Superfund site draws fire - An agreement on cleanup measures at one of the nation’s most notorious Superfund sites is drawing blowback from some environmental advocates skeptical of provisions within the deal. The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection announced Monday that the German chemical manufacturer BASF would settle claims for damages done to natural resources at its former Ciba-Geigy Corp. plant in Toms River. But while the state hailed the deal as a “turnaround story,” critics are already concerned that community members will have limited involvement in the process. “Given the dirty deeds of Ciba-Geigy and past government failures, the people of Toms River and downstream communities deserve more both on and off site when it comes to cleanup, preservation and protection from future harm,” said Janet Tauro, an Ocean County resident and board chair for Clean Water Action NJ. That pushback marks the latest turn for one of the most high-profile sites ever to come under EPA scrutiny. BASF assumed responsibility for the Ciba-Geigy Toms River plant in 2010, acquiring a deeply toxic legacy. During its operational years, the site produced industrial dyes, pigments, resins and plastics, leading to major groundwater contamination and outcry as a child cancer cluster appeared to crop up across the community. It has been on EPA’s National Priority List since 1983, underscoring its outsize threat to public health and the environment. While the site has been subject to cleanup work for years, the deal announced Monday would see around 1,000 acres permanently preserved for public benefit. Of those, 790 will be for open space and restoration projects, while 210 will be dedicated to pollinator habitat and solar energy production. That effort could break ground as early as spring 2023, DEP said, and could take five years. The agreement will allow BASF to settle claims for environmental damage, although no cost estimate has been shared regarding the extent of the work. Critics of the agreement, however, have noted that some parts of the site could still see some development under the terms outlined. They have also pushed back on provisions that would virtually give the state oversight of the area, something they say lets industry members off the hook for pollution.
France Bans Certain Domestic Flights Where There's a Train Route Available— Here's What You Need to Know - Select domestic flights throughout France will now be banned if there is an existing train alternative, paving the way to cut down on carbon emissions in a decision that was approved by the European Commission last week.The ban will apply to routes when there is a train available that will take less than 2 and a half hours, according to French Transport Minister Clément Beaune. To qualify, there would need to be several direct, high-speed rail connections available each day, according to the European Commission.“France is a pioneer with this measure resulting from the Citizens' Climate Convention,” Beaune tweeted on Friday.Currently, three routes will be affected between Paris Orly Airport and Bordeaux, Nantes, and Lyon. All carriers will now be “prohibited” from flying between those destinations.Going forward, the Commission said other air routes — like between Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport and Rennes and Lyon as well as between Lyon and Marseille — could also be banned if rail services improve since currently “they do not make it possible to get to [the airport]... early enough in the morning or to depart from there late enough in the evening. “Future improvements in the rail services, with services operating at sufficient frequencies and suitable timings, in particular for the purposes of connecting flights, will enable these air routes to be banned,” the Commission wrote in its ruling. The air travel ban will be in effect for three years and reviewed after two.Train travel in Europe is one of the best ways to get around with high-speed connections available between many major cities and countries. In France, the first passenger line started running in the 1800s with the SNCF now running both high-speed and conventional long-distance trains across the country, including 11 high-speed lines that cover more than 1,600 miles.High-speed lines are available between major cities like Paris, Lyon, Marseille, and Lille.The SNCF, along with its German counterpart, is also developing a new high-speed, direct connection between Paris and Berlin that would link the two major cities in 7 hours.
Climate change protester jailed for 15 months in Australia - Last Friday, a young woman who briefly blocked one lane of the Sydney Harbour Bridge in a protest over governments’ refusal to halt climate change was jailed for 15 months and then denied bail for an appeal. This chilling punishment highlights the resort by Australia’s governments—Labor and Liberal-National alike—to draconian anti-protest laws to try to suppress opposition to their pro-business agenda. This includes protecting the fossil fuel super-profits being made by the coal, oil and gas conglomerates on the back of the US-NATO proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. The jailing of Deanna “Violet” Coco is designed to send a wider message of intimidation directed against any protests that cut across the interests of the corporate elite. She was the first person to be sentenced under laws introduced by the New South Wales (NSW) Liberal-National government in April that impose fines of up to $22,000 and jail terms of up to two years for protests on roads, rail lines, tunnels, bridges and industrial estates. The state’s Labor Party opposition backed the legislation, which is specifically designed to outlaw protests that affect business operations. Sydney magistrate Allison Hawkins sent Coco to prison for 15 months, with a minimum of 8 months before possible parole, for Coco’s role in a climate protest on April 13, when she parked a truck on the bridge and stood holding a lit flare, intended as a distress signal. This protest blocked one of the bridge’s five city-bound lanes during the morning peak for about 28 minutes, before police removed her and others. Coco pleaded guilty to seven charges, such as interfering with the safe operation of a bridge, using or modifying an authorised explosive [the flare] not as prescribed, possessing a bright light distress signal in a public place and resisting arrest. She was also fined $2,500. Coco’s lawyer, Mark Davis, argued his client deliberately planned to not block all traffic, and other lanes of traffic were able to move in the same direction. Police alleged the protest blocked an ambulance with its sirens on, but Davis refuted this. After being convicted, despite lodging an appeal immediately, Coco was refused bail, even after her mother offered a $10,000 surety. She will remain incarcerated at least until an appeal hearing in March.
'Not for the greater good' Scott County residents organize push back to carbon pipelines as Wolf prepares for meeting do-overs -On Tuesday, the Iowa Utilities Board and Wolf Carbon Solutions will hold a second round of public meetings in Scott and Clinton counties on the company's proposal to build a pipeline to transport carbon from ethanol facilities to an underground storage site in Illinois. The pipeline is one of three proposed in Iowa that have received push-back from landowners across party lines and political ideology. Environmental groups, such as the Sierra Club and Citizens for Community Improvement, say the pipelines prolong a fossil fuel industry when tax dollar-subsidies could fund solar or wind energy, and residents have raised concerns about eminent domain, ruptures, farmland productivity, and emergency response. The Scott County Board of Supervisors, of which Republicans hold the majority, penned a letter to the Iowa Utilities Board expressing concern over the proposed pipeline, and especially any consideration of seizing land from unwilling owners, a process utilities can apply to the Iowa Utilities Board to do for a public good.The company pitches the pipeline as a way to reduce carbon dioxide from going into the atmosphere as the U.S. transitions away from fossil fuels, and would attract industries other than ethanol, such as high-emission cement companies, to plug in to the pipeline. But at Scott County landowners Susan and Jerry Stoefen's home, you can't miss a yard sign that makes their position clear on the proposed pipeline. "No easement, no eminent domain," the sign says. The couple received notice that the pipeline could route through the northernmost edge of their property, most of which is enrolled in a crop reserve program and in a hilly area. Over the decades, they rented land, farmed it themselves, and enrolled some acres into a reservation program, returning it to prairie grasses. The Stoefens don't want a pipeline on their property, and don't think it offers a sound solution to reducing carbon dioxide and mitigating climate change. They point to a rupture of a CO2 pipeline in Mississippi, which caused 45 people to seek medical attention and 200 people to evacuate, according to an investigation by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. There were no deaths.
New bipartisan clean hydrogen bill would advance DOE’s research and development - A bipartisan bill introduced on Tuesday by Reps. Paul Tonko, D-N.Y., and Stephanie Bice, R-Okla., would authorize additional research and development into clean hydrogen and fuel cell technologies at the Department of Energy. The bill, the Department of Energy Clean Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Research, Development and Demonstration Act of 2022, would establish a “national Hydrogen Innovation Center to focus on fundamental research and development activities.” It authorizes DOE programs that would work toward goals like improving stationary fuel cells to more than 80,000 hours of durability and improve the “use of hydrogen and hydrogen blends in the production of iron, steel, cement, fertilizer, chemicals, and energy-dense fuels,” said a press release. A similar bill, called the Clean Hydrogen Energy Act, was introduced in the last session of Congress but did not receive a vote. A fact sheet from Tonko’s office states, “Clean hydrogen is an important climate solution for several difficult-to-decarbonize sectors, such as chemical & metals production, long-haul shipping, and heavy-duty transportation.” The introduction of this bill comes as the Biden administration is working across a number of clean energy sectors to facilitate the U.S. being able to reach the administration’s goal of a zero-carbon electricity grid by 2035 and a net-zero emissions economy by 2050. “Hydrogen could supply up to 14% of global energy demand by 2050, requiring a 530% increase over current production levels and fueling 3.4 million US jobs,” the fact sheet says. Tonko’s office states that “boosting R&D to reduce costs and improve durability” for both fuel cells and hydrogen will help them become “commercially viable” technologies. “Fuel cells are the most energy-efficient devices for extracting power from fuels; they are not only pollution-free but can have more than two times the efficiency of traditional combustion technologies,” the fact sheet says.
Renewables to be main source of electricity generation by 2025: IEA- Renewables are on course to overtake coal and become the planet’s biggest source of electricity generation by the middle of this decade, according to the International Energy Agency. The IEA’s Renewables 2022 report, published Tuesday, predicts a major shift within the world’s electricity mix at a time of significant volatility and geopolitical tension. “The first truly global energy crisis, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has sparked unprecedented momentum for renewables,” it said. “Renewables [will] become the largest source of global electricity generation by early 2025, surpassing coal,” it added. According to its “main-case forecast,” the IEA expects renewables to account for nearly 40% of worldwide electricity output in 2027, coinciding with a fall in the share of coal, natural gas and nuclear generation. The analysis comes at a time of huge disruption within global energy markets following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. The Kremlin was the biggest supplier of both natural gas and petroleum oils to the EU in 2021, according to Eurostat. However, gas exports from Russia to the European Union have slid this year, as member states sought to drain the Kremlin’s war chest. As such, major European economies have been attempting to shore up supplies from alternative sources for the colder months ahead — and beyond. In a statement issued alongside its report, the IEA highlighted the consequences of the current geopolitical situation. “The global energy crisis is driving a sharp acceleration in installations of renewable power, with total capacity growth worldwide set to almost double in the next five years,” it said. “Energy security concerns caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have motivated countries to increasingly turn to renewables such as solar and wind to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, whose prices have spiked dramatically,” it added. In its largest-ever upward revision to its renewable power forecast, the IEA now expects the world’s renewable capacity to surge by nearly 2,400 gigawatts between 2022 and 2027 — the same amount as the “entire installed power capacity of China today.” The IEA expects electricity stemming from wind and solar photovoltaic (which converts sunlight directly into electricity) to supply nearly 20% of the planet’s power generation in 2027.
Ruling in Auxin trade case revives tariff threat for US solar - Canary Media -- Today the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a preliminary decision to reinstate tariffs on certain Asian-built solar modules, a move that could (once more) thwart the growth of the fast-growing domestic renewable energy industry. The duties are intended as a punitive measure against Chinese-government-supported solar manufacturers that are now assembling modules in any of four Asian countries (Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia) in order to dodge (or “circumvent,” in Commerce’s parlance) duties imposed on them. The duties were first imposed by the Obama administration, then were amplified by Trump and continued by Biden. While the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act has the potential to jump-start American manufacturing, it is unlikely that sufficient factory capacity will be in place by June 2024 to satisfy domestic demand for solar modules. So if the tariffs are enacted, supply-chain failures and parts shortages could debilitate U.S. utility-scale solar. Industry leaders immediately took to Twitter (and my inbox) to voice their condemnation of the preliminary decision. George Hershman, CEO of Solv Energy, a large utility-scale solar installer, had this to say in an emailed statement: “I remain concerned that the Commerce Department chose a path that could jeopardize the solar industry’s ability to hire more workers and construct the clean energy projects needed to meet our country’s climate goals. […] The upside is that Commerce took a nuanced approach to exempt a number of manufacturers rather than issuing a blanket ban of all products from the targeted countries.” Last spring, Auxin Solar, a tiny California-based maker of solar panels, convinced the U.S. Department of Commerce to investigate whether new tariffs should be imposed on panel manufacturers in Southeast Asia for allegedly circumventing existing tariffs on Chinese solar companies. The threat of potential new tariffs, which could have been made retroactive, stopped the industry in its tracks and led to many projects being put on hold. In June, a panicked U.S. solar industry was given a tariff reprieve by a Biden executive order — the industry had characterized the tariffs as an “existential threat” at the time. Today’s preliminary finding by Commerce means that the tariffs will be imposed (but not retroactively) in June 2024. The existential threat to the industry has returned. The reality is that today’s fast-expanding utility-scale solar industry is dependent on inexpensive imported solar panels — at least until the U.S. develops its own domestic manufacturing sources. The supply chain has begun to recover from Covid and tariff threats, but there’s still significant uncertainty in the sector, and project development companies with thin margins that depend on tax-equity financing don’t tolerate uncertainty well.
Williamsburg Residents Fight Plans to Install Energy-Saving Lithium Batteries Atop Residential Towers, Citing Fire Risk - New York City is set to consider a landmark proposal that allows an energy company for the first time ever to install lithium-ion batteries atop a residential building in the city as a backup source of energy — part of a larger push to meet New York’s green energy goals and replace fossil fuels with renewables. But, some residents who live near where these batteries would be installed are concerned about the project’s safety and are fighting tooth-and-nail to halt the plan. Company MicroGrid Networks (MGN) wants to install 15 lithium-ion batteries on the roof of 315 Berry St. in Williamsburg to support the local electric network. The project requires a special permit from the NYC Board of Standards and Appeals (BSA), which is considering the proposal in January. MGN is contracting with Con Edison as part of a larger effort to reduce the strain on infrastructure like its Water Street Substation, which serves the area and is one of the oldest networks. The Water Street Substation is on Con Edison’s list of “Tier 2 networks” which are those it deems most in need of load relief in New York City, MGN said. The station has a capacity of approximately 375MW. The 315 Berry St. project would add 3MW of storage to that system. The project comes amid a global turn to battery energy storage systems that has seen them popping up all over the country. New York leaders have named energy storage as an important component of the state’s clean energy plan, with an energy storage goal of 6,000 MW by 2030. This means, in NYC, companies are desperately (and creatively) searching for spaces to fit large battery storage systems in a scarce and expensive real estate market, as New Yorkers switch to electric, and the need for more energy rapidly grows.
Attack on two substations leaves nearly all 100,000 residents of Moore County, North Carolina without power - On Monday, the Federal Bureau of Investigation announced that it was joining local officials in investigating the deliberate sabotage of two separate electric substations in rural Moore County, North Carolina, about an hour south of the capital city of Raleigh, Saturday night. Police have confirmed that the perpetrator or perpetrators of the attack drove onto the property and used firearms to cause millions of dollars in damage to critical infrastructure equipment that has left thousands of people without power more than 48 hours later. Officials with the power company, Duke Energy, estimate it could be as late as Thursday until an estimated 33,000 households who still do not have power gain access. As many as 45,000 households and businesses, representing virtually all of Duke Energy’s customers in the county, home to some 100,000 people, initially lost power Saturday night as temperatures dipped below freezing for several hours. On Monday, Fire Chief Mike Cameron of the Town of Southern Pines confirmed that the entire town, home to 16,000 people, is without power. On Sunday, few more than 10,000 households had their power restored as crews work around the clock at both stations to replace heavily damaged equipment. Despite the efforts of the workers, officials with the power company stressed in a press conference Monday alongside North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper (Democrat), that required repairs to the substations were significant and would last several days, as equipment and parts would need to be transported from outside the region. At Monday’s press conference, neither the police nor Cooper were willing to state a motive for the attack or elaborate on the weapons used. Following the attack Saturday night, a state of emergency was declared in Moore County, along with an emergency curfew. The curfew is in effect from 9 p.m. through 5 a.m. and will continue until power is restored. Schools throughout the county were canceled on Monday and will be again on Tuesday. Residents were encouraged to stay off the road because street lights were not operable. Meanwhile, a single emergency Red Cross shelter is operating in Carthage. On Monday, an FBI spokesperson confirmed to the Washington Post that the agency is investigating the “willful damage” to the power stations in Moore County. While no motive, as of this writing, has been released, earlier this year, three neo-Nazis pleaded guilty on federal charges of conspiring to blow up electrical substations throughout the US prior to the November 2020 election. The purpose of the plot, the Nazis admitted, was to keep Trump in power by causing mass blackouts which they hoped to exploit to foment a race war followed by the creation a fascist ethnostate with Trump at its head.
Who shot the North Carolina power grid? - -- The deepest mystery in the energy world is a weekend shooting attack that damaged a pair of electric substations in Moore County, N.C. — a reminder that the power grid faces dangers from physical attacks, not just cyber ones.About 34,000 customers are still without power after enduring frigid temperatures following Saturday’s shootings, which law enforcement officials characterized as deliberate. Duke Energy Corp. has said outages could last until Thursday, and officials say repairs could be complex.Meanwhile, the shooter or shooters remain unknown, as does the motive. (Theories abound online, including people noting that the outage struck during a drag show.) Whatever the reason for it, energy experts say the attack exposes a weakness in grid security.“It clearly indicates that we’re still vulnerable and we haven’t taken sufficient action to address the vulnerabilities,” said Jon Wellinghoff, a former chair of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which oversees rules governing the grid.While government and industry have recently focused on hardening the grid against cybersecurity threats and extreme weather from climate change, physical security hasn’t gotten quite the same attention.The last time federal regulators took major action on this type of threat was in 2013, after unknown attackers shot a high-voltage Pacific Gas & Electric Co. substation in Coyote, Calif. The attack caused millions of dollars in damage, though a quick response from grid operators meant the power stayed on. The Department of Homeland Security suspected an “insider” was involved, but no one was ever charged.The incident spurred FERC to set new standards for electrical infrastructure security, including shielding high-voltage transformers. Certain kinds of transformers are in short supply nationwide, with wait times for some supplies stretching as long as two to three years, making them an especially worrying target.
‘Disarray:’ Texas senators might halt ERCOT power grid redesign -– A bipartisan group of state senators wants Texas’ electric grid regulator to halt its redesign of the state’s electricity market just two weeks after first seeing the proposal. All nine members of the Senate Business and Commerce Committee sent a letter late Thursday to the Public Utility Commission, telling the power grid regulatory agency that its proposed redesign for the ERCOT electricity market should be placed on hold.The committee’s chairman, Georgetown Republican Sen. Charles Schwertner, signaled that legislators might take a leading role in the overhaul in next year’s legislative session, which begins Jan. 10. “Let’s work together this session to get it right for Texans,” he said in a tweet that included the letter. Energy consultant Doug Lewin said the letter was, in effect, an “indefinite pause” to what has been the chief mission of the Public Utility Commission following the February 2021 winter storm and the blackouts that killed more than 200 Texans. “The letter signed by all nine members of the Senate Business & Commerce Committee is essentially a vote of no confidence in the PUCT leadership,” Lewin said in an email. “It throws the whole ERCOT market redesign process into even deeper disarray, which was already a mess.” The Public Utility Commission appeared undeterred by the senators’ letter, a statement from commission spokesman Rich Parsons indicated. “As we’ve said since the beginning of this process, the PUCT will develop a reliability service as directed in Senate Bill 3,” Parsons said, referring to the grid reform law passed in 2021. “The PUCT published multiple options for consideration and eagerly awaits public comments on all options. Once the Commission holds a vote on a preferred reliability service, we will present it to the Legislature next session.” The implication could be a stunning setback for the agency and its commissioners, who were handpicked by Gov. Greg Abbott after every preceding commissioner was either fired or resigned in the aftermath of the winter storm.
Texas Offers Bitcoin Miners Tool to Avoid Breaking Power Grid - The Texas grid operator is launching a program for Bitcoin miners to curtail their power usage during periods of high demand, a move intended to alleviate concerns that the crypto industry adds additional stress to a system vulnerable to extreme storms. This voluntary short-term measure designed to enroll the fast-growing crypto mining industry will be a way to curtail power consumption in exchange for payouts until long-term rules are established, Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the grid operator, said in a statement. Registration begins Tuesday and the program is expected to go live in January. “These customers are large power users but have the flexibility and willingness to reduce their energy use quickly, if needed,” Woody Rickerson, Ercot’s vice president of system planning said in a statement. Crypto miners have always been able to join Ercot programs to get paid for curtailing their operations and providing other grid services, but those rules were seen as too rigid. The industry has been working with power companies to develop new guidelines through the Ercot stakeholder process. Crypto mining has the potential to be the largest group of power users in the state that can ramp up and down within seconds around the year. Critics have been concerned that the surge of power demand from miners and big swings in their output could create disruptions for a grid that experienced widespread blackouts during a deadly winter storm last year.
Coal-fired plant imploded in New Jersey for battery array - (AP) — A former coal-fired power plant in New Jersey was imploded Friday, and its owners announced plans for a new $1 billion venture on the site, where batteries will be deployed to store power from clean energy sources including wind and solar. The move came as New Jersey moves aggressively to adopt clean energy, including its push to be the East Coast leader in offshore wind energy. Starwood Energy demolished the former Logan Generating Plant, with the head of New Jersey’s Board of Public Utilities pushing a ceremonial button; the actual explosives used in bringing the structure down were triggered by a licensed demolition contractor. Logan is one of two former coal-fired power plants that the company decided in March to shutter and tear down under an agreement with the state and a local utility. The other is the former Chambers Cogeneration Plant in Carneys Point, which has yet to be dismantled..
Utility recommends natural gas plant despite objections -- (AP) — The nation’s largest public utility on Friday recommended replacing an aging coal burning power plant with natural gas, ignoring calls for the Tennessee Valley Authority to speed its transition to renewable energy. TVA announced the completion of its environmental impact statement for replacing the Cumberland Fossil Plant near Cumberland City, Tennessee. The federally owned utility considered replacing the two coal-fired turbines there with solar panels but instead recommended a combined-cycle natural gas plant. Solar and battery storage would be more costly, requiring transmission upgrades that could take a decade to complete, according to a news release from TVA. The decision still needs the approval of TVA President and CEO Jeff Lyash, who has previously spoken in favor of natural gas. “Our focus is on ensuring that we provide affordable, reliable, resilient, and clean energy for generations to come,” Lyash said in the news release. TVA’s plan would idle one unit of the coal plant by the end of 2026 and the second by the end of 2028. The utility says a natural gas plant there could be built and operational by 2026, with construction beginning as early as summer 2023. The announcement drew backlash from groups that include the Center for Biological Diversity. “TVA’s plan to build a new gas plant and pipeline in the midst of climate catastrophe is reckless,” Gaby Sarri-Tobar, with the group’s energy justice program, said in a statement. “This is a slap in the face to the 10 million customers who rely on TVA and makes a mockery of the Biden administration’s clean energy pledges.” President Joe Biden has said he wants a carbon-pollution-free energy sector by 2035. Scientists, meanwhile, have warned that failing to meet Biden’s 2035 target will only lead to more intense and more frequent extreme weather events, as well as droughts, floods and wildfires. Teams of meteorologists across the world have predicted there is nearly a 50-50 chance that Earth will temporarily hit a global warming temperature threshold international agreements are trying to prevent within the next five years.
EPA takes environmental justice push to coal country - EPA Administrator Michael Regan on Tuesday expanded his environmental justice push to coal country with a trip to a rural, Trump-loving town in West Virginia long plagued by serious water problems. Regan is in McDowell County — population 20,000 — to highlight defective sewer systems and dilapidated plumbing in Appalachia. The region of the country that “once powered our nation and helped cement America’s competitiveness,” he said, now is “not in such great shape.” “We owe it to communities like that to demonstrate our support,” he said in an interview with E&E News, “by also visiting and listening to people on the ground the same way that we’re doing with some of our other environmental justice communities.” He called it “very important” to focus on the Appalachian region to emphasize that “no matter your race, or how much money you have in your pocket, everyone deserves clean air and clean water.” The trip marks Regan’s fifth stop on his “Journey to Justice” tour, following trips to Jackson, Miss.; St. John’s Parish, La.; Houston; and San Juan, Puerto Rico. During those visits, he stopped by community centers, toured elementary schools, sat on front porches and took rides along contaminated channels (Greenwire, Nov. 4). “While there are similar themes throughout these tours, we do know that every ‘Journey to Justice’ tour is a little bit different,” he said. In West Virginia, earlier this morning, Regan spoke to a family recently reconnected to the main water line. For lunch, he is stopping by the food bank Five Loaves & Two Fishes. Linda McKinney, who runs the food bank, said Friday she was planning to make Regan spaghetti pizza — the same dish she made for the late chef Anthony Bourdain when he paid her a visit in 2018. “We’re a food desert, and we’re also a water desert,” she said. Already, EPA has spent considerable time in McDowell, where residents rely on a water treatment plant that is more than 100 years old. Regan said he has sent his staff at least six times to McDowell, a county where nearly 80 percent of voters supported former President Donald Trump in 2020. The county is one of 11 communities EPA and the Agriculture Department are targeting for pilot programs to fix basic wastewater problems. The communities span Lowndes County, Ala., and North Carolina to tribal nations out west.
Georgia Power, environmental groups clash over coal ash - – Environmental advocates are calling into question Georgia Power’s plan for closing ash ponds adjacent to coal-burning power plants. Jennette Gayer, director of Atlanta-based Environment Georgia, cited a recent decision by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) denying an Ohio utility’s request to leave coal ash at a closed pond in contact with groundwater. As part of its ash-pond closure plan, Georgia Power is proposing to leave coal ash in contact with groundwater at plants Scherer, McDonough, Yates, and Hammond. “When cleanup plans that don’t require liners to keep coal ash out of groundwater fail and groundwater testing continues to show contamination, or when the EPA requires cleanup that keeps coal ash out of ground water as they have in Ohio, will ratepayers be asked to contribute more funds?” Gayer asked members of the state Public Service Commission (PSC) Nov. 30 during a hearing on Georgia Power’s request for a rate increase of nearly 12%. “At a minimum, do not commit funds to cleanup that is not permitted.” Georgia Power’s request to recover $400 million from ratepayers during the next three years for ash pond cleanup is part of a $9 billion multiyear plan. The utility intends to close all 29 of its ash ponds located at 11 coal plants across the state as it reduces its reliance on coal for power generation due to both tighter government regulation and market conditions. Coal ash contains contaminants including mercury, cadmium and arsenic that can pollute groundwater and drinking water as well as air. While Georgia Power plans to excavate and remove the ash from 19 ponds and close the other 10 ponds in place, environmental groups are calling for removing ash from all 29 ponds. The EPA gave the environmentalists’ cause new ammunition last month when the federal agency denied a request from Gavin Power LLC to continue disposing of coal ash in an unlined ash pond at its plant in Cheshire, Ohio. “For too long, communities already disproportionately impacted by high levels of pollution have been burdened by improper coal ash disposal,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan said Nov. 18. “Today’s action reaffirms that surface impoundments or landfills cannot be closed with coal ash in contact with groundwater, ensuring safe water resources for these communities while protecting public health and ensuring a reliable supply of electricity.”
What is NOPEC doing with our electric bills and how did we get here? - cleveland.com - - For decades the Northeast Ohio Public Energy Council, better known as NOPEC, has been buying electricity on behalf of residents in Greater Cleveland. Now, state regulators may take away NOPEC’s right to represent communities in the electricity market That’s because NOPEC’s rates got so high this summer that it temporarily dropped close to 550,000 customers who would be better off buying electricity directly from utilities like FirstEnergy.The decision saved residents hundreds of dollars. But it also raised big questions. Why did NOPEC’s rates get so high, while the prices offered by the utilities stayed low? Why didn’t NOPEC drop customers before they were hit with high electric bills this summer? And how did a model that worked for 20 years suddenly break? After a complaint from a competitor, state regulators are considering whether to renew NOPEC’s certificate to sell electricity. If they don’t renew it, NOPEC would no longer be able to supply electricity to communities. But it would still be allowed to sell natural gas. Despite the controversy the decision caused, NOPEC CEO Chuck Keiper said temporarily dropping those customers was the right choice. He said the nonprofit’s track record of advocacy for consumer friendly legislation, grants and usually competitive pricing speaks to NOPEC’s value. In the late 1990s, Ohio lawmakers started to partially deregulate the energy market, changing the way Ohioans bought electricity and natural gas. When the rules were being created more than 20 years ago, consumer advocates thought one household alone couldn’t negotiate better prices. Advocates lobbied to create the opt-out government aggregation option. More than 100 communities in Greater Cleveland voted to form these aggregations. Most cities then joined NOPEC, which formed in November 2000 to negotiate on behalf of 95 communities at the time.NOPEC is run by a board of directors that’s made up of local officials. Each NOPEC community appoints a representative and has one vote in NOPEC’s general assembly. Representatives from each county also elect a board member from that county. In recent years, NOPEC has not always been the cheapest option. But for many years NOPEC was cheaper than the option offered by utilities called the standard service offer — usually called the “price to compare” on utility bills.NOPEC CEO, Keiper, said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a huge part of why NOPEC, and the wholesale electricity market in general, saw skyrocketing prices this year. But timing was the main reason NOPEC became so much more expensive than the standard service offer. Electricity for the standard service offer from the utilities is bought well in advance, but NOPEC usually buys electricity close to when it needs it. Both methods have upsides and downsides. A company could buy electricity at $50 per megawatt, for example, and lock in for one year. If the price doubles to $100 in six months, locking in saved money. But if the price drops to $25, buying in advance was a mistake. Electricity prices in Ohio have been flat or declining for many years. Keiper said NOPEC always used a variable rate and avoided locking in a rate so it could reduce its rates as prices dropped. Russia invaded Ukraine in February and electricity prices took a sharp turn.
FirstEnergy, Others to Pay $49 Million to Settle Bribery Suit
- Lawmakers were bribed to secure nuclear plant subsidy
- FirstEnergy pays $37 million, Energy Harbor pays $11 million
FirstEnergy Corp. and Energy Harbor will have to pay a combined $49 million as part of a settlement with a class of ratepayers that alleged the companies bribed state lawmakers to secure a $900 million subsidy for two nuclear plants. FirstEnergy and other individual defendants were accused of violating the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act and the Ohio Corrupt Practices Act. The company earlier reached a $230 million agreement with prosecutors in a separate corruption case. Judge Edmund A. Sargus Jr. of the US District Court for the Southern District of Ohio granted final approval of the class settlement ... (Bloomberg Law paywall)
Ohio lawmakers may require fracking under state land - Last-minute changes to a poultry bill would label natural gas as "green" energy and require fracking under state-owned land and parks in Ohio. Opponents of House Bill 507 say the new language would force Ohio to lease state parks and public lands for oil and gas drilling called fracking. The Ohio Environmental Council says this could extend to state universities and colleges as well.Proponents of the changes say the state could still reject unworthy projects."There’s nothing in this amendment that would force the state to accept a lease that isn’t appropriate or fair for the state of Ohio," said Rob Brundrett, president of the Ohio Oil and Gas Association.Ohio has allowed fracking under state land for over a decade Ohio lawmakers approved fracking under state land in 2011, but the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission has been slow to approve any projects. Former Gov. John Kasich signed that bill into law but didn't appoint anyone to the commission for years. Under Gov. Mike DeWine, the commission has met more frequently but has not approved leases."This has been on the books for over a decade," Brundrett said. "We’re just trying to make it more efficient for everyone involved.”The new language says Ohio "shall," rather than "may," lease state land for oil and gas drilling. The change would take effect when the bill is enacted and last until the commission creates its own rules on leasing this land. Sen. Tim Schaffer, R-Lancaster, said "shall kind of lights a fire, if you will." But Senate Minority Leader Kenny Yuko, D-Richmond Heights, said the change "cuts out the public and the important process of deciding if and how drilling occurs in our state parks." He called the "dangerous" policy an "end run" on leasing state lands.. State nature preserves are exempt from drilling under the 2011 law. Another change would label natural gas as "green energy," a designation that environmentalists scoff at. "It’s effectively PR and an attempt to confuse Ohioans," said Nolan Rutschilling, managing director of energy policy at the Ohio Environmental Council Action Fund, Natural gas emits significantly less carbon dioxide than coal but contributed to 33% of the United States' methane emissions in 2020 and 4% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, according to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates. Schaffer said natural gas is "an extremely clean source of energy" and a major resource in Ohio. In July, European Union lawmakers designated natural gas and nuclear power as "green" or "sustainable" energy. Schaffer said it was important to follow suit. But Rutschilling said the European Union's decision was limited and temporary. He worries that the Ohio change would greenlight natural gas for investments meant for wind, solar and other renewable energy sources in the future. The bill itself would not allow most natural gas to qualify for renewable energy credits. Another last-minute addition would prohibit municipalities from banning pesticides registered with the Ohio Department of Agriculture. The underlying House Bill 507 had nothing to do with natural gas. It would decrease the number of poultry chicks that may be sold or given away from six to three.
Ohio Senate to vote on expanding gas drilling on state lands - – With little public notice, the Ohio Senate could vote Wednesday on legislation to expand natural gas drilling in state parks. The bill also would change the legal definition of “green energy” – a term typically referring to power derived from sun, wind, or water – to include natural gas. Natural gas is mostly methane, a powerful heat-trapping greenhouse gas that’s formed over millions of years underground and freed via drilling into the earth. Additionally, the amended legislation would prohibit municipalities from banning the use of certain pesticides within their borders. All these changes were made late Tuesday afternoon to House Bill 507 – legislation that until that time only addressed laws around poultry sales and food safety. At the time of the vote, text of the amendments was not available online. The amendments and legislation passed the Senate Agriculture and Natural Resources committee 5-1, with Republicans in support and the committee’s lone attending Democrat in opposition. The legislation could be put to a Senate vote as soon as Wednesday, pending the discretion of Senate leadership. The House could accept the Senate’s changes and send the bill to the governor or send the matter to a conference committee to hash out the differences. Since 2011, state law has granted agencies the ability, if they choose, to lease out their land for oil and gas production and exploration. The amendment adopted Tuesday would require state agencies to lease their lands to applicants seeking to drill, instead of just allowing them to. The proposal “forces state agencies to lease state parks and public lands for fracking and oil and gas development when the industry says so,” according to an analysis from the Ohio Environmental Council. Industry requests to drill for oil and gas on public lands can “drag on for years and years,” Sen. Tim Schaffer, a Lancaster Republican, said at a hearing Tuesday. His comments amounted to some of the only substantive remarks about the six amendments adopted. Beyond just natural gas, the amended legal definition of “green energy” under the bill would include any energy resource that is “more sustainable and reliable relative to some fossil fuels” – a broad definition that could conceivably include coal, a major climate change driver and among the dirtiest of fuel sources. No analysis from the Legislative Service Commission was available as of Tuesday evening. The effects of including natural gas within the legal definition of “green energy” are subtle, according to the OEC Action Fund’s Nolan Rutschilling. It could set a worrisome precedent for state utility regulators, he said, or could just be a push to rebrand a product associated with human-caused climate change. “It sets a precedent we don’t like. It’s largely a public relations move,” he said. “And it’s just scientifically incorrect.” The amendment states that besides for gas “produced from biologically derived methane,” that energy generated by using natural gas is not eligible for a renewable energy tax credit. Sen. Mark Romanchuk, an Ontario Republican, proposed the green energy amendment, an aide confirmed. Romanchuk declined to explain his thinking in an interview. Senators adopted three other amendments into HB 507, ranging in subject matter from disposal of abandoned vehicles, auctioneer licensure requirements, and food safety laws.
Reopening of Valley injection well under deep scrutiny - Youngstown Vindicator — AWMS Water Solutions of Howland, the company that owns two oil and gas wastewater injection wells along state Route 169 in Weathersfield Township just north of Niles, says the outcome of its case being heard by the Ohio Oil and Gas Commission will set precedent in Ohio for regulations governing seismic activity associated with injection wells.Seismic activity refers to earthquakes produced by injection wells, which inject the wastewater from the oil and gas industry deep underground as a means of disposal. The Ohio Oil and Gas Commission is reviewing the parameters set by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources under which the injection well will operate when it reopens.On May 21, 2021, Eric Vendel, chief of the ODNR Division of Oil and Gas Resources, issued orders stating after the AWMS well reopens, it must shut down again if an earthquake of a magnitude 2.1 or greater occurs within a 3-mile radius of the facility, as occurred in 2014 not long after it first opened.“AWMS also shall depressurize and not resume operations until a full evaluation of the data from the seismic event is performed by AWMS,” the orders state. The orders indicate they can be appealed to the Ohio Oil and Gas Commission — which AWMS did.The company’s appeal focuses on the requirement that the well close again if an earthquake of magnitude 2.1 or larger occurs, which AWMS found to be too restrictive.An appeal hearing took place in Columbus in February, and the company and ODNR filed followup briefs in March in which they again debated the parameters under which the well would reopen.The Ohio Oil and Gas Commission continues to review the issues but has not issued a ruling. AWMS Water Solutions, LLC. Is a wholly owned subsidiary of Avalon Holdings Corp. of One American Way in Howland.
New Research Dives into Fracking’s Impact on Water Flow in Ohio - Cleveland Scene - It found reductions that were severe and had the potential to negatively impact ecosystems.New Research Dives into Fracking’s Impact on Water Flow in Ohio - Cleveland Scene - It found reductions that were severe and had the potential to negatively impact ecosystems. Fracking is a very water-intensive industry, and a new study dives into the impact of unconventional oil and gas drilling on aquatic ecosystems in the Ohio River Basin. Ponds, streams and reservoirs typically supply the water for hydraulic fracturing, which is used to create fissures in rock from which oil and gas are extracted. Ohio Northern University Associate Professor of Chemistry Christopher Spiese said examining water-flow reductions is important as it results in reduced depths and the total volume of the water source. "You're restricting the habitat that fish and invertebrates have to feed and spawn," said Spiese. "Water can actually get warmer, which can then lead to reduced survival rates for these critters. It enables invasive species to have an opening to start to impinge on the rivers and native species retreat." Spiese and other researchers at Ohio Northern developed a model for estimating river flow and compared the data to water usage from the industry. He explained that while they didn't see dramatic reductions in stream flow, the reductions that were discovered were severe and had the potential to negatively impact ecosystems. The research calls for more accurate data collection and reporting for fracking water use. Spiese said in their work with groups such as the Freshwater Accountability Project and FracTracker, they've found discrepancies between water withdrawals and water-usage reporting. He added that there are policy implications that should be considered. "We'd ultimately like to see an assessment of risk-benefit analysis kind of stuff," said Spiese. "What is this actually costing Southeast Ohio in terms of ecosystems, environmental health, human health, versus how much is it actually bringing in for economic benefits? And I don't know which way that scale is going to tip." According to the report, water withdrawal in Ohio below 100,000 gallons per day does not require a permit. With those below that threshold unregulated, Spiese said there are unknowns about the quantity of water withdrawn from individual watersheds.
Ohio family continues to fight pipeline construction on their farmland - — A Union County farm family is continuing to oppose construction of a natural gas pipeline across their preserved farmland in a case before Ohio’s Third District Court of Appeals. Meanwhile, administrative changes at the Ohio Department of Agriculture, as well as proposed changes to Ohio’s eminent domain laws, could affect similar cases in the future. On Nov. 22, the Third District Court of Appeals heard oral arguments for two linked cases, Columbia Gas of Ohio, Inc. v. Patrick E. Bailey, et al. and Columbia Gas of Ohio, Inc. v. Don Bailey Jr., et al. These cases appeal a Union County Common Pleas Court ruling in April that dismissed Columbia Gas’s request to use eminent domain for pipeline construction. The lower court dismissed Columbia Gas’s eminent domain petition citing inconsistencies in the language used in documents provided to the court and those reviewed by the Ohio Power Siting Board. A 25-foot easement labeled “temporary” before the siting board was listed as “perpetual” in the eminent domain request to the court. In the appeal before the district court, the Bailey family is asking the court to uphold the lower court’s dismissal of the eminent domain request, based on the inconsistent perpetual/temporary easement descriptions.The appeals court has already ruled on a case involving a neighboring farm, Columbia Gas of Ohio, Inc. v. Phelps Preferred Investments, LLC. The Phelps case involved the same inconsistent easement descriptions. In July, the appeals court upheld the lower court’s dismissal of the eminent domain request.The Phelps case is different from the Baileys’, however, because the Phelps farmland is not protected by an ag easement. The Baileys want the appeals court to go a step further in their cases to consider the ag easement and deny the eminent domain request because the ag easement establishes a “prior public use.”
Is EOG's Latest Discovery a Premium Play? - In its latest earnings report, EOG Resources highlighted its well results in the volatile oil window of the Utica shale, touting the region’s contribution to its premium inventory. EOG stated it expects “the Utica Combo to be its next large-scale premium resource play” and that it believes it can be developed using three-mile laterals. Historically, this area has seen limited production activity due to the comparably worse well performance against the Utica wet and dry gas windows. However, the historical underdevelopment of the volatile oil window and the black oil window means there is an abundance of potential locations that could add to Appalachia inventory estimates. In this Energy Market Insight, we’ll take a look into EOG’s claims and analyze their potential impacts on Utica production and activity going forward. Ohio’s state data shows EOG completed one well in 2021, Rose 0801, located in Carroll County. In 2022, EOG drilled four additional wells located in Carroll, Noble, and Stark counties. In its latest earnings report, EOG stated it plans to drill 20 wells in the area through 2023, signaling its commitment to developing the area further. With the preliminary data suggesting impressive results for the underdeveloped window, the magnitude of potential development comes into question. BTU’s current inventory estimates extend into the wet gas window but are very limited in the volatile oil window, as there are few existing wells to build inventory around. Furthermore, current inventory estimates show breakevens increase as locations move from the dry gas to the black oil window, with volatile oil window locations being greater than $4/MMBtu, which has been prohibitive to development. If EOG could replicate the results of its Rose 0801 well across all of its acreage using three-mile laterals, BTU estimates it would add 1,509 Utica shale locations. If other acreage owners could replicate the results across the entire window, there could be over 3,200 additional locations. If the region saw producer activity equal to the dry and wet gas windows at ~15 wells per month, the volatile oil window could add more than 15 years of inventory to the area. However, the greatest hindrance to this rapid development in the region is the additional infrastructure buildout that would be required to support any significant growth, as most existing infrastructure is centered around the wet gas window.
New Study Shows Ohio's Plastic Industry Surpassing China's Thanks to Natural Gas - Ohio’s plastic manufacturing industry is beating out China’s, thanks to its abundant natural resources that provide manufacturing and economic advantages, according to a new Shale Crescent USA study by JobsOhio. The study debunks the long-held belief that importing plastic-based manufactured goods is more affordable, when in fact, increasing domestic production and making critical materials like plastics in Ohio has distinct advantages. In a release, JobsOhio noted: “However, since the COVID-19 pandemic spotlighted the financial and logistics benefits of shorter supply chains, Ohio has surpassed China as the world’s low-cost center for plastics manufacturing, thanks to advantages in cost, economic climate, and market access.” Ohio has long had a competitive standing when it comes to U.S. plastics manufacturing. In fact, this year, the Plastics Industry Association ranked Ohio as the No.1 state in the nation for plastics employment in its 2022 Size and Impact Report. Ohio’s energy and transportation advantages are just some of the emerging key differentiators in manufacturing when compared to China. The onshoring of U.S. manufacturing is directly correlated to manufacturers reaping the benefits of domestic production, and is good news for workers throughout the country and the Buckeye State. Ohio is a prime example of this: the state’s advanced infrastructure, highly-skilled workforce, and central location make it an ideal manufacturing hub. And importantly, Ohio and neighboring Pennsylvania and West Virginia have an abundance of natural resources to fuel manufacturing plants and provide ancillary benefits and market opportunities – and move industry away from China.
Edwards Testifies on Bill to Add Incentives for Natural Gas Pipelines - Athens Messenger -- State Representative Jay Edwards (R-Nelsonville) Tuesday provided sponsor on legislation that would create areas within which tax and other incentives would be available to promote the development of natural gas infrastructure projects. These incentives are available in locally designated areas, called EnergizeOhio zones, and can include loan programs, cost recovery provisions, and a personal property tax reduction. EnergizeOhio zones are petitioned to the Department of Development and must be developing natural gas pipelines and the associated infrastructure.“House Bill 685 gives us the upper hand in the development of these pipelines,” Edwards said. “These incentives will promote the quick expansion of our pipeline system and keep Ohio’s energy moving.” EnergizeOhio zone designations last five years and can be renewed for an additional five years if they meet certain requirements. H.B. 685 now awaits its second hearing in the House Energy and Natural Resources Committee.
Revealed: Nearly 100 potential PFAS-polluted sites in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia from fracking waste - -— Waste from fracking wells that used PFAS – commonly known as “forever chemicals”– has been dumped at dozens of sites across Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia — all of which could face contamination of soil, groundwater and drinking water as a result.PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) have been used in hydraulic fracturing and other types of oil and gas wells across the U.S. for at least a decade.Exposure to the chemicals, which are also used to make various consumer products nonstick and waterproof, is linked to health problems including kidney and testicular cancer, liver and thyroid problems, reproductive problems, lowered vaccine efficacy in children and increased risk of birth defects, among others.Regulatory loopholes and a lack of transparency make it impossible to know how extensively the chemicals have been used in oil and gas production. In August, however, Environmental Health News (EHN), documented the first case of private drinking water contaminated with PFAS potentially linked to fracking wells, and in October EHN mapped the eight locations where operators have publicly disclosed the kind of PFAS they used in Pennsylvania fracking wells.Now, a new map developed for EHN by FracTracker using public data reveals that waste generated at the eight Pennsylvania fracking wells with documented PFAS use has traveled to at least 97 additional sites for reuse and disposal. Those eight wells generated more than 23 million gallons of liquid waste and 30,390 tons of solid waste between 2012 and 2022 so far. “It’s unique that we’re able to trace this in Pennsylvania,” Matt Kelso, a manager of data & technology at FracTracker, who developed the map, told EHN. “Other states may tell you a little about the waste generated at well pads, but most don’t publicly report where it goes.”
Pennsylvania Natural Gas Production Continues to Dip, 4Q Drilling Below Last Year's Pace -- Pennsylvania natural gas production from horizontal wells totaled 1.88 Tcf or 20.6 Bcf/d in the third quarter, down 0.8% from the third quarter of 2021, according to data from the state’s Department of Environmental Protection (DEP). This marks the third straight quarter in which output did not rise on a year/year (y/y) basis, DEP said, and the strongest y/y decline in quarterly production since the publishing of monthly data began in 2015. The number of new horizontal wells spud, however, totaled 158, a 47-well increase from 3Q2021. “This uptick in drilling was likely in response to the dramatic increase in prices in late summer,” DEP researchers said. “Preliminary data for the fourth quarter show that the number of wells spud in October and November is down 13.6% from the same period in 2021.” The statewide number of producing wells stood at 11,119 wells for 3Q2022, up 4.1% from the year-ago period. “Horizontal producing wells, which account for over 99% of production, increased by 4.4%,” researchers said.They added, “Growth in producing wells fell to its lowest rate since data have been published…Decelerating or flat growth in producing wells is due to less drilling activity in 2020 and 2021 and older wells that were shut in or plugged. The uptick in drilling in 2022 should lead to stronger growth in producing wells.”Researchers highlighted a “dramatic” increase in U.S. and Pennsylvania natural gas prices in 3Q2022 versus the same period last year.. “Current forecasts project that prices will remain elevated in the short term due to global supply and demand pressures.” The Energy Information Administration (EIA) confirmed as much in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook published on Tuesday. EIA is expecting Henry Hub spot prices to average $6/MMBtu in 1Q2023, up from a November average of around $5.50. EIA also raised its full-year 2023 production forecast to 100.4 Bcf/d from a month-earlier projection of 99.7 Bcf/d. Over the longer term, Pennsylvania and the Appalachian Basin in general is to be a vital supply source to the U.S. and global markets, according to TC Energy Corp.’s Stanley Chapman III, vice president of U.S. and Mexico natural gas pipelines.Susquehanna County accounted for 20.9% of Pennsylvania’s gas output during the first three quarters, followed by Washington (18.1%), Bradford (15.2%), Greene (14.6%) and Lycoming (5.8%) counties. Pennsylvania’s natural gas production totaled 5,637 Bcf through September, second only to Texas at 8,371 Bcf. Louisiana, Alaska and West Virginia ranked third, fourth and fifth, respectively, at 2,946 Bcf, 2,645 Bcf and 2,158 Bcf. “These data show that after relatively strong production growth compared to other major producing states in [2021], Pennsylvania is the only major producing state to record negative annual growth through September 2022,” DEP researchers said.
Republicans push to ease gas pipeline regulations; some Democrats refuse to let bill through - — Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Penn.) says gas pipeline regulations are overly burdensome and get in the way of domestic energy production. “If we have it domestically, if we’re blessed in a way that very few places in the world are, why not access what we have and create jobs,” Kelly said. He’s introduced a bill to streamline the permitting process and build more infrastructure for gas pipelines across the country, as well as approve the Mountain Valley Pipeline completion. “I never quite understood this idea that sometimes you have to cut down what you’re able to do,” Kelly said. Kelly says approving the bill eases regulations so pipelines can transport gas from Pennsylvania to the Northeast, and would lower energy costs for families and businesses. “For the American citizen, they don’t know how hard their own government makes it on them to access energy,” Kelly said. The bill was also introduced in the Senate, where some Democrats say it’s unnecessary. “I certainly don’t support that legislation,” Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) said. Gillibrand is pushing against the bill and says lawmakers need to focus on transitioning away from gas energy. “We need much more investment in clean energy and the infrastructure to support clean energy.” With a packed legislative schedule, the bill may not advance this year, but Kelly promises to bring it back to the floor when he returns for the next Congress.
New developments arise from both sides of pipeline debate - - There were new developments last week in the debate involving the Mountain Valley Pipeline. One involved legislation that could clear the path for the project. The other was a call from opponents to provide a more thorough review. The legislation was announced Thursday by Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pennsylvania). It’s similar to the proposal US Sen. Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) offered in September, that would streamline permitting for fossil fuel projects and clear the way for completion of the Mountain Valley Pipeline. Sen. Toomey and a Pennsylvania Republican in the House of Representatives introduced companion bills. By approving the legislation, Toomey said in a news release, Congress would “create regulatory certainty for pipeline construction nationwide and greenlight the long-delayed Mountain Valley Pipeline.” Mountain Valley Pipeline opponents said they weren’t surprised to see the proposal resurface, but said lawmakers should reject it again. Roberta Bondurant and Grace Terry are members of the group Preserve Bent Mountain. ‘Legislators have an obligation to protect the public,” Bondurant told WDBJ7. “And in advancing MVP, they are failing to do that. In fact they are working against public safety.” “And think about it,” Terry added, “if it were a good project, it wouldn’t have run into the trouble that it’s had.” This week, more than 40 environmental and advocacy groups called for a “fair and open” review of the pipeline’s plan to cross the Jefferson National Forest. They said the process should include public comment before the U.S. Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management issue a draft report. David Sligh is the Conservation Director of the group Wild Virginia.. “As citizens, members of the public have the right to have a say, to have a fair say, in how their public resources are going to be managed,” Sligh said Friday afternoon. “And so it’s a practical thing to get the best information, and it’s a fairness thing to make sure that folks who are going to be most affected have the best chance to weigh in.”
The U.S. wants to slash carbon emissions from power plants. Natural gas is in the way - Under President Joe Biden, the United States aims to cut all carbon pollution by 2035 from the power plants that run American homes and businesses. It's a first step toward the broader goal of zeroing out greenhouse gas emissions across the entire economy by midcentury to rein in climate change. But the ambitions of the Biden administration are set to collide with the country's power industry, which looks like it will continue burning fossil fuels for the foreseeable future. Over the next few years, the U.S. is expected to build around 17 gigawatts of natural gas plants, enough to power close to 12.8 million homes, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Unless they're closed early, those plants could operate for decades on an electric grid that still gets almost 60% of its power from fossil fuels. Natural gas creates fewer emissions than coal when it's burned, but producing and transporting gas releases huge amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Most remaining oil and gas deposits must remain buried for the world to have a decent shot at keeping global temperatures from rising to more dangerous levels, according to a study last year in the journal Nature. But analysts don't expect the U.S. will end its reliance on natural gas any time soon. To close America's remaining coal plants, which generate around a fifth its electricity, many industry analysts believe the country needs natural gas to ensure reliable energy supplies until cleaner options like battery storage are widely available. "If you're going to kick that 20% of coal off the grid by 2030 or 2035, there is zero chance you can do that without increasing gas," says Andy DeVries, an analyst at CreditSights who tracks companies in the U.S. power industry. "After the coal's off the grid, how much longer does it take to then kick the gas off? That's at least another 10 years," DeVries says. "And that's aggressive." Scientists say the incremental cuts that countries are making to emissions won't be enough to avoid a future that brings more damaging storms, floods and heat waves. The U.S. has a giant pipeline of renewable energy projects — 45 gigawatts of solar and wind are expected to be built next year alone — but continuing to add emissions from new fossil fuel plants makes it harder to limit global warming.
How states are trying to fit gas utilities into a low-carbon future – A zero-carbon future is largely incompatible with an ever-expanding network of fossil-gas infrastructure. What sense does it make to let utilities keep building pipelines that must stop carrying fossil fuels in less than 30 years to meet decarbonization mandates? But states with ambitious climate goals also need to keep gas utilities financially healthy enough so they can maintain their remaining infrastructure in safe running order. States are also responsible for protecting low-income customers, who can’t easily switch from gas to electric heating and cooking, from being stuck paying exorbitant prices for a dwindling resource delivered by an increasingly underused delivery network. These competing imperatives mean that states are stuck trying to pull off a tricky policy balancing act, as seen most recently in California and Colorado. Last week, public utility commissions in both states adopted measures aimed at reducing the risk of “stranded assets” — gas pipelines that may not be able to earn back the cost of building them in future decades. They’re also trying to gain a better understanding of what can be done to supplant new gas lines with cleaner and more cost-effective alternatives, and ultimately to address the broad conundrum of what to do with gas utilities. The value of gas assets at risk of being stranded as the world moves to cut the use of fossil fuels amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars, according to various estimates. This includes the large-scale pipelines that carry gas from where it’s pulled out of the earth and the power plants that burn it to generate electricity. It also encompasses the distribution networks of pipes that deliver gas directly to customers’ homes and buildings. States with decarbonization goals are taking action to limit these stranded-asset risks. This year, Oregon and Washington state cut back subsidies for gas-system expansion, and Connecticut regulators ended a program that subsidized homes switching from heating oil to gas, saying it was no longer cost-effective or compatible with the state’s climate goals. Cities and counties are also acting to ban gas from newly constructed homes and businesses in California, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Washington state, Washington, D.C., and most recently, Maryland’s Montgomery County. (But this trend has provoked a backlash in a number of other states, where legislatures have passed laws preventing cities and counties from banning gas.) All in all, the risks for gas utilities are rising as it becomes clear that keeping global warming below catastrophic levels will require a steep reduction in burning gas, a 2021 report from consultancy Brattle Group warns.
Follow the markets to see where U.S. natural gas activity is high - (UPI) -- Operators working in the inland shale basins in the United States are focusing their activity on natural gas to capitalize on elevated prices, though gains aren't universal, analysis finds. Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Canada-based energy research firm Enverus, found that, since the start of 2021, operators in Texas shale have shifted their activity in line with the rally in natural gas prices. "The relative well-level economics in the gas-weighted areas generate comparable returns and value when compared to the core of the basin and should compete for capital for operators with regional optionality," Stephen Pratt, a senior associate at EIR, said in an emailed statement.Wholesale natural gas prices are highly variable, moving on anything from the weather to curtailments overseas. Henry Hub, the U.S. benchmark for the price of natural gas, was trading around $5.47 per million British thermal units, down from August highs of $9.65 but still higher than the $3.80 level that started the year.The federal government expects Henry Hub will average $5.43 next year, compared with the $3.91 average for 2021. On production, the government said it expected an uptick in natural gas for next year, though gains could be limited by a lack of pipeline capacity that can carry products away from the field.Enverus found that markets are supportive of operations in the Permian, but that might not be the case elsewhere. A month-on-month forecast from the U.S. Energy Department finds that, by volume, the Appalachia basin -- comprising both the Marcellus and Utica shale plays -- is the most productive. Appalachia gains, however, are not as great as those in the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico or the Haynesville play straddling the border of Louisiana and Texas. Haynesville production is on pace to accelerate by 1% from November levels, Permian by 0.6% and 0.4% in the Appalachia basin.Federal estimates put total U.S. natural gas production at 98.1 Bcf/d for 2002, a 0.1% revision higher than previous forecasts. By 2023, the United States is expected to produce 100.4 Bcf/d, an increase of 0.6% from previous estimates.
U.S. natgas succumbs to Freeport restart delay as demand outlook dims (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures extended a sell-off and fell more than 10% on Monday as forecasts for milder weather cast a shadow on demand outlook, hurt by the delayed restart of the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant. Front-month gas futures for January delivery shed 70.4 cents, or 11.2%, to settle at $5.577 per million British thermal units, having touched its lowest level since the end of October at $5.556. "The big factor putting downward pressure on prices today is the weather revisions. With warmer weather in the near future, less gas will be consumed in the residential and commercial sector. Our demand models show sharply lower demand for gas over the near-term," said John Abeln, analyst with data provider Refinitiv. Freeport LNG on Friday again delayed the restart of the second-biggest U.S. LNG export facility, moving its forecast for resuming processing to year end, pending regulatory approval. The delay is further curtailing gas demand from the export sector, energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. "With storage at around average levels, supplies appear adequate to meet requirements of a normal to moderately colder-than-normal winter. And although cold temperatures in Europe have been boosting prices, any implied increase in U.S. exports appears to be a minor consideration for now." The Freeport plant, which can convert about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas into LNG, shut on June 8 due to an explosion caused by inadequate operating and testing procedures, human error and fatigue, according to a report by consultants hired by the company to review the incident and propose corrective actions.
Polar Plunge Seen for Next Week Drives Price Recovery for Natural Gas Futures - Natural gas futures bounced around Wednesday after weather models added a large chunk of demand to the long-range outlook, with frigid Canadian air forecast to plunge into the Lower 48 next week. After a sharp rally overnight lost momentum, confirmation in the midday data sent the January Nymex gas futures contract roaring higher and ultimately to a $5.723/MMBtu settlement. February futures shot up 23.9 cents to $5.617. Spot gas prices were sharply higher out West, fueled by another round of bitter cold and snow. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. climbed 73.5 cents to $6.540. After falling for four straight sessions, futures rebounded overnight after both the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre models reversed and trended 15-20 heating degree days (HDD) colder. Although a revision was largely expected by traders, the amount of demand added back into the outlook likely was more than the natural gas markets were expecting, according to NatGasWeather. The latest data showed overnight lows plunging below zero across most of the northern half of the country during the Dec. 16-21 period. The southern United States also could see overnight temperatures slide into the 20s and 30s. This is notable, considering daytime highs on Tuesday in Houston reached 85 degrees, breaking the previous record of 81 set in 1999, according to local forecaster Space City Weather. Even more shocking, it snowed on the same day in 2017. Despite the increased likelihood of a mid-December cold snap, the damage done to prices from a much warmer-than-normal pattern in the first half of the month is significant, according to NatGasWeather. The prompt-month futures contract has shed $2 in about a week’s time. At the same time, the span of mild weather and resulting light demand is seen padding storage inventories before the peak winter months, which could limit a price rally. After falling more than 350 Bcf below the five-year average at the end of summer, stocks are poised to flip back to a surplus in the next couple of weeks, the forecaster said. Ahead of Thursday’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly inventory report, storage withdrawal estimates pointed to a paltry draw anywhere from 8 Bcf to 60 Bcf for the week ending Dec. 2. To put this into perspective, the EIA recorded a 59 Bcf decrease in storage during the similar week last year and the five-year-average decline of 49 Bcf. A Wall Street Journal survey of 14 analysts averaged a withdrawal of 30 Bcf. A Bloomberg survey showed estimates as low as 8 Bcf with a median of 31 Bcf, while Reuters’ poll produced a median 27 Bcf withdrawal. NGI modeled a 25 Bcf decline in stocks. As of Nov. 25, total working gas in storage stood at 3,483 Bcf, which was 89 Bcf below year-earlier levels and 86 Bcf below the five-year average. Aside from the warmth that’s helped to lower demand, analysts point to robust production that has aided the steady improvement in supplies. Lower 48 dry gas output has hit 102 Bcf/d in recent months, with most daily declines chalked up to maintenance events rather than a structural shift in production. On Wednesday, for example, El Paso Natural Gas Pipeline (EPNG) declared a force majeure at two constraint points along its system. This was on top of the work already underway downstream on Line 1600. East Tennessee Natural Gas LLC also declared a force majeure on the Boyds Creek Compressor Station along the 3300 Line to complete emergent repairs. Meanwhile, Tennessee Gas Pipeline announced a force majeure impacting flows in Libertyville, NJ.
U.S. natgas up 4% on colder forecasts despite small storage draw (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained about 4% on Thursday on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. That price increase came despite a federal report showing a smaller-than-expected storage decline last week, when mild weather kept heating demand low and ample wind power reduced the amount of gas that generators needed to burn to produce electricity. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities pulled 21 billion cubic feet (bcf)of gas from storage during the week ended Dec. 2. That was lower than the 31-bcf decline analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and well below a decrease of 59 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 49 bcf. The price increase also came despite Freeport LNG's announcement last week that it will delay the planned restart of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas from mid-December to the end of the year. . Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 23.9 cents, or 4.2%, to settle at $5.962 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). In the spot market, gas prices in California have nearly doubled over the past couple of weeks as freezing weather and snow blankets parts of the state and pipeline outages and constraints limit gas flows from Texas. In Northern California, next-day gas for Thursday at the PG&E citygate hit its highest since February 2014, while gas at the Southern California Border rose to its highest since February 2021. The combination of mild weather in Texas and the pipeline constraints and maintenance outages limiting gas flows to California helped cut spot prices at the Waha hub in the Permian basin in West Texas by around 80% over the past week. U.S. gas futures are up about 61% so far this year as much higher global prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine. Gas was trading at $43 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and $34 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia.
U.S. natgas futures jump 5% on colder forecasts for late December (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped 5% to a one-week high on Friday on forecasts for much colder weather and higher heating demand through late December than previously expected. In the spot market, U.S. West Coast power and gas prices have more than doubled over the past couple of weeks - with gas hitting multi-year highs - as freezing weather and snow blankets parts of California and gas pipeline outages and constraints limit flows of the fuel from Texas. That colder weather should force utilities to pull more gas from storage in coming weeks. Gas stockpiles were about 1.6% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year. The increase in futures prices came despite Freeport LNG's announcement last week that it will delay the planned restart of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas from mid-December to the end of the year. That delay should keep LNG exports below record levels hit in March and leave more gas in the United States for domestic use. Some analysts do not expect Freeport to return until January, February or later because it will likely take federal pipeline safety regulators longer than Freeport expects to review and approve the plant's restart plan once the company submits it. The Freeport plant, which can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas into LNG, shut on June 8 due to an explosion caused by inadequate operating and testing procedures, human error and fatigue, according to a report by consultants hired to review the incident and suggest corrective actions. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 28.3 cents, or 4.7%, to settle at $6.245 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest since Nov. 2. That put the contract down about 1% this week after falling about 11% last week. U.S. gas futures were up about 69% so far this year as much higher global prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine. Gas was trading at $42 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and $33 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 99.7 bcfd so far in December, up from a monthly record of 99.5 bcfd in November. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 117.8 bcfd this week to 123.1 bcfd next week and 142.0 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 11.9 bcfd so far in December, up from 11.8 bcfd in November. That remains below the monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March due to the Freeport outage.
Gas line hit in College Park; delays likely along Route 1 - A gas line was struck Thursday morning and began to leak at the intersection of Lakeland Road and Baltimore Avenue in College Park.Fire officials said it appeared that no one was hurt in the incident. They also said that a contractor in the area had hit a line and ruptured it. Officials with Prince George’s County Fire said on Twitter the incident happened around 8:30 a.m. and is likely to cause “significant impact to pedestrian and vehicle traffic” along Route 1.Drivers are advised to avoid the area. Officials did not immediately disclose what caused the gas line to be hit.
A new Gulf oil spill study finds even deadlier impact on one of Florida's most popular fish | WUSF Public Media -- Field research on the consequences of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill found that heart, vision and hearing damage caused to mahi mahi populations by even low amounts of oil can cut the chances of survival within a week to just half. mMore than a decade after BP’s Deepwater Horizon drilling rig exploded into a lethal inferno that killed 11 and spilled more than 3 million barrels of oil in the Gulf of Mexico, researchers piecing together its lasting impacts have found more profound damage than previously known — to one of the Gulf’s most important fish. Testing wild mahi mahi, the team found for the first time that even low amounts of oil can cut survival rates in half within a week of exposure. The fish also stopped spawning for at least a month.“Those are massive numbers,” said Martin Grossell, lead principal investigator for one of 12 research groups funded by the BP’s Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative and a professor at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School. The findings were first published in September in the journal Environmental Science and Technology. In previous experiments, Grossell’s lab confirmed low levels of oil can damage the hearts, hearing and vision of young lab-bred mahi, impairing their fitness. The field work, done over three weeks in the northern Gulf of Mexico, now confirms that damage can be deadly, he said. “It will lead to mortality in the wild where fish have to compete for resources and avoid predation,” he said. “So it's a tougher life out there than it is in the lab.” For drilling opponents, these findings and others provide more evidence to end Gulf oil exploration. The Biden administration has proposed expanding it and is now taking public comment on a new lease. “These findings about the mahi are really no surprise,” said Catherine Uden, the South Florida field representative for the nonprofit conservation group Oceana. “It just goes to show that there are so many long lasting effects from fish to sea turtles to dolphins, and all of the impacts to the environment.” The group has joined a broad coalition of environmental groups and scientists calling for the administration to end Gulf drilling under the proposal.
Louisiana now lacks a seat at an energy table -- An announcement over the Thanksgiving holiday caused Louisiana's Republican congressional delegation to go after Democratic President Joe Biden — an attack that also underscored the state’s political vulnerability on energy issues. It all started when the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control gave Chevron Corp., based in San Ramon, California, license to drill for a modest amount of oil and natural gas in Venezuela. The announcement was couched in humanitarian terms, ostensibly to ease suffering among the Venezuelan people caused by U.S. human rights sanctions. The country’s brutal dictator, Nicolas Maduro, recently made noises about meeting with opposition leaders. But the backstory is that the administration has been discussing since March how Venezuela could increase production. That country’s crumbling infrastructure produces about 800,000 barrels per day. In the 1990s, Venezuela produced about 3 million barrels per day. Biden wants to increase the supply of oil and thus lower the price of gasoline while also adhering to his campaign promise to work toward weaning the U.S. off carbon-producing fossil fuels that are hastening global warming. Underscoring the importance of drilling and refining to Louisiana's economy, Republicans in the congressional delegation vented on social media and Fox television. “The answer is right beneath our feet! How infuriating is it?” a Fox Business journalist asked U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-Baton Rouge. “It really is infuriating,” Cassidy replied. “This administration has chosen to focus only on carbon emissions, which means we get more carbon emissions — they’re burning coal in Europe because we can’t supply them with gas and oil — while at the same time we lose jobs here.” U.S. Rep. Steve Scalise, R-Jefferson, said in an interview that once in power, Republicans would forward bills to fill the oil shortage and lower prices at the pump, which in turn would weaken inflation. Specific bills that address permitting, pipelines, and leasing likely will be among the first legislation out of the gate when the Republican majority takes administrative control of the House on Jan. 3. But for the first time in who knows how many years, Louisiana’s delegation won’t have a seat at the table where such legislation is considered. With Scalise’s ascendance to House majority leader, the number two post, he’ll have to step down from the House Committee on Energy and Commerce. It’s not "Louisiana’s seat," but someone from the delegation has been on the committee since oil and natural gas oversight was added to its duties almost a century ago. If Louisiana’s delegation pushes one of its own for a seat on the committee, the question is who? And how?
Some 120,000 U.S. oil wells sit abandoned, new research shows - The Washington Post - Across the country, fossil fuel companies have walked away from thousands of oil and gas wells, leaving them unplugged and idle even as many of these drill sites leak greenhouse gas emissions and pose direct threats to human health. But until recently, states had little incentive to identify these wells and few resources to plug them. Now, the bipartisan infrastructure law that President Biden signed last year is changing the calculus around this mounting environmental challenge. The law, which authorized a record $4.7 billion for states’ efforts to plug abandoned wells, has set off a scramble among state officials to document the wells within their borders. As a result, states have now reported more than 120,000 abandoned wells in total, marking a nearly 50 percent increase from the 81,000 wells that they reported last year, according to a new analysis of state data by researchers at the Environmental Defense Fund and McGill University. Even this figure may mask the true extent of the problem. By some estimates, the number of undocumented abandoned wells in the United States — those that have yet to be discovered — could be as high as a million. Abandoned wells — also known as “orphaned wells” because no owner can be found — can leak toxic substances such as arsenic, formaldehyde and benzene, polluting the air and groundwater. Using census data, the analysis found that 14 million people live within a mile of an orphaned well, including 1.3 million adults with asthma. Exposure to air pollution can worsen asthma symptoms, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Orphaned wells can also emit methane, a potent greenhouse gas that causes climate change. Responsible for roughly a third of global warming today, methane traps about 80 times as much heat as carbon dioxide during its first 20 years in the atmosphere.Abandoned wells are a huge climate problem. In January, the Interior Department announced that states could apply for an initial $1.15 billion in federal grants to fund the closure and cleanup of abandoned wells. The department noted that the grants would be based on three criteria: the number of documented orphaned wells in each state, the estimated cost of cleaning up the wells in each state, and the job losses in each state from March 2020 through November 2021. In August, Interior awarded an initial $560 million to 24 states to begin plugging and remediating more than 10,000 orphaned wells. Twenty-two states received $25 million each, while Arkansas and Mississippi got $5 million each to measure methane emissions from the wells and begin plugging them.
Lack of bidders increasing costs to plug abandoned oil and gas wells in Kentucky - - Contractors have started plugging some of the thousands of oil and gas wells abandoned by the fossil fuel industry across Kentucky, using new federal funding. But a lack of companies able or willing to bid on the work is increasing costs, a Kentucky official said recently. Kentucky received an initial $25 million grant through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law this August to plug, reclaim and cap between 1,000 to 1,200 documented sites — known as “orphan” wells — that if poorly plugged or unplugged, can be a significant contributor of greenhouse gas emissions like methane. The federal grant is part of a broader plan from the White House to reduce nationwide emissions of methane. The greenhouse gas remains in the atmosphere for a shorter time compared to carbon dioxide but is 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere. Unplugged or poorly plugged orphan wells can also leach toxic chemicals into underground aquifers or cause methane to unknowingly accumulate inside buildings, creating an explosive hazard. Dennis Hatfield, director of the Division of Oil and Gas in the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet, in a Dec. 2 meeting said 171 wells across Kentucky have so far been plugged with the funding, and work is ongoing or completed in 12 counties. The cabinet has sent out phases of requests to plug hundreds of orphan well sites in 26 counties in Eastern and Western Kentucky. Hatfield said a shortage of participating bidders is a problem. In a couple of instances, he said, packages of well sites had to be re-bid because of a lack of responses from companies who could do the work. He said bonds required to be taken on by the bidders, along with added federal regulations regarding payroll, have made it harder for smaller companies to get involved. “It’s probably doubled or tripled the cost of the labor component,” Hatfield said. “Our goal is to have as many contenders in there so that we get the most competitive price.” A report last year by the Environmental Defense Fund shows more than 13,000 documented orphan wells lie across the state, a tenth of the national total of more than 120,000 wells. The nonprofit research group Resources for the Future in a report analyzed data on nearly 20,000 orphan wells in four states, finding that the the average cost to plug a well to be around $20,000; the price per plugged well jumps to an average of $76,000 when the ground surrounding the well site is also rehabilitated.
Lujan wants more federal funds for New Mexico's abandoned oil wells - An estimated 1,700 oil and gas wells sit abandoned in New Mexico, potentially spewing pollution in the state’s land and a, Wells can be left unused and unmonitored by energy companies when they are deemed financially unviable.During the volatile oil and gas industry’s frequent ups and downs, oil-rich areas like New Mexico’s southeast Permian Basin region can see more wells going into service and later abandoned or “orphaned” in industry terms.To address this issue, U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM) introduced the Abandoned Well Remediation Research and Development Act to provide federal funds used to find and identify abandoned oil and gas wells and track their impacts on the environment, while also developing a process for plugging and restoring the land to its natural state The Act would amend the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which contained provisions from Lujan’s previous Revive Economic Growth and Reclaim Orphaned Wells (REGROW) Act that provided about $4.3 billion for cleanup of the wells on state and private land.The REGROW Act also earmarked another $400 million for the work on federal and Tribal lands, and $32 million for associated research.
Oil spill in rural Kansas creek shuts down Keystone pipeline - Toledo Blade— An oil spill in a creek in northeastern Kansas shut down a major pipeline that carries oil from Canada to the Texas Gulf Coast, briefly causing oil prices to rise Thursday. Canada-based TC Energy said it shut down its Keystone system Wednesday night following a drop in pipeline pressure. It said oil spilled into a creek in Washington County, Kansas, about 150 miles northwest of Kansas City. The company on Thursday estimated the spill's size at about 14,000 barrels and said the affected pipeline segment had been “isolated” and the oil contained at the site with booms, or barriers. It did not say how the spill occurred. “People are sometimes not aware of of the havoc that these things can wreak until the disaster happens,” said Zack Pistora, who lobbies the Kansas Legislature for the Sierra Club's state chapter. Concerns that spills could pollute waterways spurred opposition to plans by TC Energy to build another crude oil pipeline in the Keystone system, the 1,200-mile Keystone XL, which would have cut across Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska. Critics also argued that using crude from western Canada's oil sands would worsen climate change, and President Joe Biden's cancelation of a U.S. permit for the project led the company to pull the plug last year. In 2019, the Keystone pipeline leaked an estimated 383,000 gallons of oil in eastern North Dakota. Janet Kleeb, who founded the Bold Nebraska environmental and landowner rights group that campaigned against the Keystone XL, said there have been at least 22 spills along the original Keystone pipeline since it began service in 2010. She said federal studies have shown the type of heavy tar sands oil the pipeline carries can be especially difficult to clean up in water because it tends to sink. “All oil spills are difficult, but tar sands in particular are very toxic and very difficult, so I’m awfully concerned,” said Kleeb, who is also the Nebraska Democratic Party's chair. But the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said there were no known effects yet on drinking water wells or the public, and the oil didn't move from the creek to larger waterways. Randy Hubbard, the Washington County Emergency Management coordinator, said there were no evacuations ordered because the break occurred in rural pastureland. TC Energy said it had set up environmental monitoring at the site, including around-the-clock air quality monitoring. A U.S. Energy Information Administration spokesperson said the Keystone pipeline moves about 600,000 barrels of oil per day from Canada to Cushing, Oklahoma, where it can connect to another pipeline to the Gulf Coast. That’s compared to the total of 3.5 million to 4 million barrels of Canadian oil imported into the U.S. every day. Past Keystone spills have led to outages that lasted about two weeks, but this outage could possibly be longer because it involves a body of water, said analysts at RBC Capital Markets in a note to investors. “It could eventually impact oil supplies to refiners, which could be severe if it lasts more than a few days.” The spill was 5 miles northeast of Washington, the county seat of about 1,100 residents. Paul Stewart, an area farmer, said part of it was contained on his land using yellow booms and a dam of dirt. The spill occurred in Mill Creek, which flows into the Little Blue River. The Little Blue feeds the Big Blue River, which flows into Tuttle Creek Lake, north of Manhattan, home of Kansas State University. The EPA said the oil did not affect the Little Blue. Dan Thalmann, publisher and editor of The Washington County News, a weekly publication, said crews were creating a rock path to the creek because recent rains made fields too soft to move in heavy machinery. “Gosh, the traffic past my house is unbelievable — trucks after trucks after trucks,” said Stewart, who took down an electric fence he'd finished putting up Wednesday, fearing it might be knocked down and dragged into a field. Chris Pannbacker said the pipeline runs through her family's farm. She and her husband drove north of their farmhouse and across a bridge over Mill Creek. “We looked at it from both sides, and it was black on both sides,” said Pannbacker, a reporter for the Marysville Advocate newspaper. Junior Roop, the sexton of a cemetery near the spill site, said people could smell the oil in town. “It was about like driving by a refinery,” he said.
Oil spill in rural Kansas creek shuts down Keystone pipeline system - (photos) The Keystone pipeline system was shut down by operator TC Energy after an oil spill released an estimated 14,000 barrels into a creek in Washington County, Kansas. The system transfers oil between Canada and the U.S. Crews were able to control downstream migration of the oil as of Thursday night. Repair planning is underway as are shoreline assessments, according to TC Energy. Continuous air quality monitoring has also been deployed, the company said. The emergency shutdown was issued early Thursday morning after a detected pressure drop in the system. TC Energy said it will conduct a full investigation into the root cause of the incident and is cooperating with regulators. The affected segment was isolated and booms were deployed to control downstream migration of the spill, TC Energy said. The Environmental Protection Agency dispatched two regional coordinators to the scene. TC Energy also mobilized a response crew originating from Steele City, Nebraska, to begin containment and source control, according to the the EPA. Washington County is about 20 miles south of Steele City, Nebraska. According to the EPA, there are no known impacts to drinking water wells or the public but surface water of Mill Creek has been impacted. U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said his agency is "monitoring and investigating" the Keystone leak. "Our Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration has issued a Corrective Action Order requiring a shutdown of the affected segment, analysis of the cause, and other safety measures," Buttigieg said in a tweet Friday. TC Energy said it immediately activated its emergency response procedures and has established environmental monitoring, including around-the-clock air monitoring. It's still unclear what caused the spill. The EPA said it will oversee TC Energy’s response operations to ensure proper cleanup and evaluate the cause of the incident.
Keystone pipeline leaks 14,000 barrels of oil into creek in biggest spill yet - An oil spill in a creek in north-eastern Kansas this week is the largest for an onshore crude pipeline in more than nine years and by far the biggest in the history of the Keystone pipeline, according to federal data. Canada-based TC Energy estimated the spill on the Keystone system at about 14,000 barrels and said the affected pipeline segment had been “isolated” and the oil contained. It did not say how the spill occurred. After a drop in pressure on the pipeline that carries oil from Canada to the Texas Gulf coast, the company said it shut down its Keystone system on Wednesday night. Oil spilled into a creek in Washington county, Kansas, about 150 miles north-west of Kansas City. The transportation secretary, Pete Buttigieg, on Friday tweeted that the government was investigating. Zack Pistora, a lobbyist in Kansas for environmental campaign group the Sierra Club, noted the latest spill was larger than all of the 22 previous spills combined on the Keystone pipeline, which began operations in 2010. “This is going to be months, maybe even years before we get the full handle on this disaster and know the extent of the damage and get it all cleaned up,” he said. In September 2013, a Tesoro Corp pipeline in North Dakota ruptured and spilled 20,600 barrels, according to US Department of Transportation data. A more expensive spill happened in July 2010, when an Enbridge Inc pipeline in Michigan ruptured and spilled more than 20,000 barrels into Talmadge Creek and the Kalamazoo River. Hundreds of homes and businesses were evacuated and federal regulators later ordered Enbridge to dredge the contaminated sediment from the river. The Keystone pipeline’s previous largest spill came in 2017, when more than 6,500 barrels were spilled near Amherst, South Dakota, according to a US Government Accountability Office report released last year. The US Environmental Protection Agency said there were no known effects yet on drinking water wells or the public in connection with this week’s spill. “Our primary focus right now is the health and safety of onsite staff and personnel, the surrounding community and mitigating risk to the environment,” a TCV Energy company statement said. Junior Roop, the sexton of a nearby cemetery, said people could smell the oil in town. “It was about like driving by a refinery,” he said. Concerns that spills could pollute waterways spurred opposition to plans by TC Energy to build another crude oil pipeline in the Keystone system, the 1,200-mile Keystone XL, which would have cut across Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska. Critics also argued that using crude from western Canada’s oil sands would worsen the climate crisis, and Joe Biden’s cancelation of a US permit for the project led the company to pull the plug last year. A US Energy Information Administration spokesperson said the Keystone pipeline moves about 600,000 barrels of oil a day from Canada to Cushing, Oklahoma, where it can connect to another pipeline to the Gulf coast.
Federal data: Kansas oil spill biggest in Keystone history -- (aerial video) — A ruptured pipe dumped enough oil this week into a northeastern Kansas creek to nearly fill an Olympic-sized swimming pool, becoming the largest onshore crude pipeline spill in nine years and surpassing all the previous ones on the same pipeline system combined, according to federal data. The Keystone pipeline spill in a creek running through rural pastureland in Washington County, Kansas, about 150 miles (240 kilometers) northwest of Kansas City, also was the biggest in the system’s history, according to U.S. Department of Transportation data. The operator, Canada-based TC Energy, said the pipeline that runs from Canada to Oklahoma lost about 14,000 barrels, or 588,000 gallons. The spill raised questions for environmentalists and safety advocates about whether TC Energy should keep a federal government permit that has allowed the pressure inside parts of its Keystone system — including the stretch through Kansas — to exceed the typical maximum permitted levels. With Congress facing a potential debate on reauthorizing regulatory programs, the chair of a House subcommittee on pipeline safety took note of the spill Friday. A U.S. Government Accountability Office report last year said there had been 22 previous spills along the Keystone system since it began operating in 2010, most of them on TC Energy property and fewer than 20 barrels. The total from those 22 events was a little less than 12,000 barrels, the report said. “I’m watching this situation closely to learn more about this latest oil leak and inform ways to prevent future releases and protect public safety and the environment,” Democratic U.S. Rep. Donald Payne Jr., of New Jersey, tweeted. TC Energy and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said the spill has been contained. The EPA said the company built an earthen dam across the creek about 4 miles downstream from the pipeline rupture to prevent the oil from moving into larger waterways. Randy Hubbard, the county’s emergency management director, said the oil traveled only about a quarter mile and there didn’t appear to be any wildlife deaths. The company said it is doing around-the-clock air-quality checks and other environmental monitoring. It also was using multiple trucks that amount to giant wet vacuums to suck up the oil.
Major oil pipeline outage to hit U.S. stockpiles, refinery supplies (Reuters) - An outage on the largest oil pipeline to the United States from Canada could affect inventories at a key U.S. storage hub and cut crude supplies to two oil refining centers, analysts and traders said on Friday. TC Energy's Keystone pipeline ferries about 600,000 barrels of Canadian crude per day (bpd) to the United States. It was shut late Wednesday after a breach spewed more than 14,000 barrels of oil into a Kansas creek, making it the largest crude spill in the United States in nearly a decade. "The main question continues to be the duration of the potential outage... the longer the duration, ultimately, of course means potentially tighter inventories in Cushing or heavy (crude) on the Gulf Coast," said Michael Tran, a managing director at RBC Capital markets. The line runs directly to the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub, which is currently about a third full with nearly 24 million barrels in stock. If the outage last for more than 10 days, it could push Cushing storage to near the operational minimum of 20 million barrels, said AJ O'Donnell, a director at pipeline researcher East Daley Capital. Volumes in the fourth quarter will be "materially affected," as Keystone likely will run at a considerably lower pressure at least for some time once it restarts, said Harshit Gupta, Arc Independent research. Other pipelines between Canada and the United States are at or near capacity, East Daley and data analytics firm Wood Mackenzie estimates. "There's nowhere near enough to take 600,000 barrels a day. There's just not enough pipe right now," O'Donnell said. The spill in Kansas took place downstream from a key junction in Steele City, Nebraska, where Keystone splits to run into Illinois. That stretch of the line could be restarted, but the other segment affected by the spill will not come back until regulators approve a restart. TC Energy aims to restart on Saturday a pipeline segment that sends oil to Illinois, and another portion that brings oil to Cushing on Dec. 20, Bloomberg reported, citing sources. TC Energy said it was evaluating plans to return the pipeline to service. Volumes to the Gulf from Cushing have already dropped. Volumes on TC Energy's Marketlink pipeline, which flows from Cushing to Nederland, Texas, fell by about 300,000 bpd to less than 500,000 bpd, Wood Mackenzie estimates, after the leak was discovered. Gulf Coast refiners, which could suffer shortages of heavy Canadian crude, can draw on supplies from offshore Louisiana facilities and from Colombia, Mexico and Ecuador. U.S. physical crude oil grade prices were mixed on Thursday and O'Donnell at East Daley said he expects volatility to continue as long as Keystone remained offline. Meanwhile, a lengthy shutdown of the pipeline could lead to Canadian crude getting bottlenecked in Alberta, and drive prices lower, although the market's reaction on Friday was muted. Western Canada Select (WCS), the benchmark Canadian heavy grade, for December delivery last traded at a discount of $27.70 per barrel to the U.S crude futures benchmark, according to a Calgary-based broker. On Thursday, December WCS traded as low as $33.50 under U.S. crude, before settling at around a $28.45 discount.
Federal judge orders Enbridge, Bad River to make a plan to avoid a 'catastrophic' rupture of Line 5 on tribe's reservation - A federal judge has ordered the Bad River tribe and Canadian energy firm Enbridge Inc. to come up with a joint proposal to shut down and purge an oil and gas pipeline should erosion worsen at the Bad River and threaten a "catastrophic" rupture. The Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa sued the Canadian energy firm in federal court in 2019 to shut down and remove Line 5. The lawsuit followed the tribe’s decision not to renew easements for the pipeline that had expired in 2013 on a dozen parcels of tribal land. Tribal officials argue the pipeline poses an unreasonable risk to health and safety as erosion at an area referred to as "the meander" threatens to expose and rupture Line 5. In response to Bad River’s lawsuit, Enbridge is planning to build a $450 million pipeline that would run 41 miles around the Bad River reservation.The nearly 70-year-old Line 5 carries up to 23 million gallons of oil and natural gas liquids per day and spans 645 miles from Superior through northern Wisconsin and Michigan to Sarnia, Ontario. Enbridge contends the pipeline has been safely operating, serving as a vital energy link to the region.In a Monday order, U.S. District Judge William Conley said risk of a significant rupture exists that could result in "catastrophic" impacts to the Bad River watershed and Lake Superior. "Thus, the court finds that a rupture of Line 5 at the meander would be a substantial and unreasonable interference with the Band’s and the public’s rights," wrote Conley. His ruling allows the pipeline to continue operating, but requires Enbridge to come to an agreement with the tribe on emergency measures to avoid a spill. Conley noted the nearest shutoff valves are 14 miles apart on either side of the meander. He said that makes it unlikely that they could be activated in time to prevent roughly 20,000 gallons of crude and natural gas liquids in that segment of pipe from spilling into the Bad River.The judge ordered Enbridge and Bad River to meet and discuss installation of emergency shutoff valves, a protocol for shutting down and purging the line, and projects that could slow further erosion by Dec. 17. The two must submit a joint proposal or each must offer their own proposal if no agreement can be reached by Dec. 24.
Enbridge and Bad River Band to meet following pipeline decision - -By the end of December, the legal battle between the Canadian energy company Enbridge Inc. and the Bad River Band will enter its next phase. U.S. District Judge William Conley issued an order Monday that requires Enbridge and the tribal community to meet to discuss ways to mitigate dangers associated with the company’s Line 5 pipeline by Dec. 17, and to submit plans by Dec. 24 for the future of Line 5. Either the tribe and the company will work together on a plan, or they’ll propose separate visions for Line 5. In his decision, Conley denied Enbridge’s requests for injunctive relief. Enbridge asserted that the Bad River Band and Naomi Tillison, director of its natural resources department, had unlawfully denied the company access to Line 5 to conduct inspections and maintenance. Enbridge argued that the Clean Water Act, the Transit Pipelines Treaty signed between the U.S. and Canadian governments in 1977 and the U.S. All Writs Act— which dates back to 1789 in its original form — gave the court the authority to order the tribe comply with Enbridge’s demands for access to tribal land. The treaty prohibits public authorities from instituting measures that would “have the effect of impeding, diverting, redirecting or interfering with in any way the transmission of hydrocarbons in transit,” the decision document notes. In his decision, Conley writes that Enbridge isn’t a party to the U.S.-Canadian treaty. Nor does the treaty suggest that “a private entity could bring a cause of action to enforce it or even that it may be enforced in federal court,” the decision states. “Instead, the signatory countries may bring claims under the Transit Treaty pursuant to a specific arbitration process, as Canada has done with respect to Line 5.” Elizabeth Ward, chapter director of the Sierra Club of Wisconsin, says invoking the treaty was an attack on tribal sovereignty. “I was happy to see the judge recognize that the 1977 Transit Treaty had no bearing on this case at all,” said Ward, who monitored the federal case closely. “Enbridge tried to argue that it was OK for them to trespass on Bad River’s land and, essentially, this treaty between the U.S. and Canada overwrote Bad River’s sovereignty. And I was glad to see the judge agree with Bad River that Enbridge was wrong.”
USA Oil and Gas Jobs Are Still in Short Supply - The short supply of labor in the US oil patch has plagued exploration and production companies all year, and the tightness continues. While the sector’s unemployment rate jumped to 3.1% in November from 0.8% in the prior month on an unadjusted basis, it’s still well below the long-term average, according to a Labor Department report released Friday. A year-ago, the jobless rate was 8.6% as many workers were sidelined due to the pandemic stalling output amid very weak oil demand. Labor shortages in US shale have been one of the biggest hurdles holding back production growth this year. Explorers, who have faced repeated calls from the Biden administration to boost production amid rising energy costs, routinely cite their inability to find enough workers to drill new wells. The number of workers employed in US oil and gas jobs totaled 135,700 in November, climbing modestly for a third straight month, but still down from this year’s peak in July. The tightness in the energy labor markets replicates trends in the wider economy. But the broader mining and logging industry -- which includes oil and gas, according to the Labor Department’s classification -- is the farthest behind of any sector in recovering its pandemic job losses, down 6.9% from February 2020.
Get the facts on fracking - Over the past 15 years or so, fracking has enabled an explosion of oil and gas extraction across the United States. By drilling horizontally and then pumping toxic fluid at high pressure to fracture shale rock, fracking captures otherwise inaccessible fossil fuels dispersed underground. As we documented in Fracking by the Numbers, the resulting environmental degradation is enormous.Fracking generates huge volumes of toxic wastewater – laced with chemicals and sometimes even radioactive substances. Leaks and spills of fracking waste have put drinking water sources and at risk on hundreds of occasions. Fracking also uses billions of gallons of water – even in drought-stricken places like Texas.Public health is also endangered by the industrial machinery connected to fracking – as wells, compressors, trucks and other equipment release toxic air pollution.In addition, dirty drilling also does substantial damage to wildlife and our natural heritage – as well pads, new access roads, pipelines and other infrastructure built for fracking turn forests and rural landscapes into industrial zones.And while fracking has brought a windfall for some, its industrial disruption and legacy waste impose a multitude of costs on communities. And dirty drilling also contributes to the climate crisis – especially as methane leaks from well pads and beyond. Against this dirty record, the oil and gas industry has sought to convince the public that fracking can be done safely. Yet our researchers in Pennsylvania uncovered fracking operators continuing to violate environmental and health rules with impunity.For all these reasons, Environment America is working to halt the expansion of fracking wherever we can and enforce stronger environmental safeguards wherever dirty drilling is already underway.
Los Angeles City Council votes to ban oil and gas drilling - The Los Angeles City Council voted unanimously on Friday to ban drilling of new oil and gas wells and phase out existing ones over the next 20 years. The vote comes after more than a decade of complaints from city residents that pollution drifting from wells was affecting their health. “Hundreds of thousands of Angelenos have had to raise their kids, go to work, prepare their meals (and) go to neighborhood parks in the shadows of oil and gas production,” said Los Angeles City Council president Paul Krekorian, one of the councilmembers who introduced this measure. “The time has come .... when we end oil and gas production in the city of Los Angeles.” Two engineers with Yorke Engineering, a California-based company that does air quality and environmental compliance review, spoke in opposition to the ordinance. They said a ban and phase out will have a negative effect because oil and gas operators will abandon wells. They said this is being underestimated by the city. If they walk away, that will mean increased air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, they said. But Los Angeles City Attorney Mike Feuer said these claims are “not credible,” citing a review by Impact Sciences, another California-based firm that performed an environmental analysis of the ordinance for the city.
Los Angeles bans oil and gas drilling within city limits - The Los Angeles City Council has voted to ban new oil and gas drilling and phase out existing wells over the next two decades, a historic decision that comes after years of complaints by residents about how pollution from nearby drilling has caused them health issues. In a 12-0 vote, the council on Friday approved an ordinance it began drafting earlier this year that will immediately ban new extraction and shut down existing operations within 20 years. The decision to ban new drilling and decommission existing wells is one of the strongest environmental policies enacted in the state, and could pave the way for other cities around the country to adopt similar measures. Historically, environmental legislation that has originated in California has often spread to other parts of the country, such as cleaner emissions standards for cars in the 1970s. More recently, the state banned the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035, and New York state soon followed suit. There are 26 oil and gas fields and more than 5,000 active and idle wells in LA. Wells are spread out all over the city, including Wilmington, Harbor Gateway, downtown, West LA, South LA and the northwest San Fernando Valley. The oil industry has largely opposed the city’s ban, arguing that phasing out production will make LA more dependent on foreign energy. Hector Barajas, a spokesman for the California Independent Petroleum Association, which represents independent oil and gas producers in the state, said that 2.5 million barrels of oil produced by the city last year would have to replaced by imports from Saudi Arabia, Ecuador and Iraq given the state’s new ban. The U.S. now produces over 12 million barrels per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. “Our in-state oil is the only California climate-compliant oil in the world, given that oil producers must adhere to the state’s greenhouse gas reduction program and account for all emissions,” Barajas said. “Foreign oil imports are totally exempt from those requirements.”
In historic move, Los Angeles bans new oil wells, phases out existing ones -- The Los Angeles City Council voted Friday to phase out all oil drilling in L.A. and ban new wells, a historic move in a city that was built by a once-booming petroleum industry and whose residents have suffered with decades of environmental consequences as a result.In a 12-0 vote, the council approved a new ordinance that immediately bans new oil and gas extraction and requires that all existing oil and gas extractions stop production within 20 years.The move is opposed by the oil industry, whose leaders warned city officials that the phase-out will hurt the city’s finances and make L.A. more dependent on foreign oil.According to the city’s planning department, Los Angeles has 26 oil and gas fields and more than 5,000 oil and gas wells. Some of the wells are active, while others are idle.Many wells are found in the Wilmington and harbor areas, but also operate in downtown, West Los Angeles, South Los Angeles, and the northwest San Fernando Valley, according to the city’s planning department.Oil wells are known to emit likely carcinogens including benzene and formaldehyde, and living near wells is linked to health problems including respiratory issues and preterm births, studies have found.Environmental justice activists charge that low-income communities of color are particularly affected by the wells and associated health problems. Stand Together Against Neighborhood Drilling, or STAND-L.A., a group of community groups that helped spearhead the law, said Friday in a statement that “Black, Latinx and other communities of color currently living near polluting oil wells and derricks in South L.A. and Wilmington will eventually breathe easier.” Still, STAND-L.A.'s members skipped Friday’s City Council meeting and a subsequent news conference with several council members, saying that they couldn’t support “business as usual” while Gil Cedillo and Kevin De León, who are facing calls to resign following their role in a 2021 incendiary closed-door conversation, remain on the council. “Our city and this council must own up to the anti-Blackness that created policies that allowed oil drilling in neighborhoods in the first place and that fostered an environment where such a horrific example of racism and corruption could occur between council members,” the group said.
Newsom proposes penalizing oil companies amid high fuel prices - California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) on Monday evening unveiled a proposal that would penalize oil companies for “excessive profits” in the Golden State.Newsom introduced the “price gouging penalty” alongside state Sen. Nancy Skinner (D) in a move they said would “deter excessive price increases and keep money in Californians’ pockets.”“California’s price gouging penalty is simple – either Big Oil reins in the profits and prices, or they’ll pay a penalty,” Newsom said in a statement.The proposal comes as California’s legislature kicks off a special session, initiated by the governor, to address the issue of price gouging.California, which also has among the highest gas taxes in the country, saw prices hit a record high of $6.44 per gallon in mid-June, according to AAA. Prices at the pump on Tuesday were about $4.72 per gallon — significantly higher than the national average of $3.38. No one can deny that California’s gas prices were outrageously high compared to other states. And those high prices hurt California consumers and businesses,” Skinner said in a statement. If approved by state lawmakers, the proposal would make it illegal for companies to charge excessive prices, and excessive refiner margins would be punishable by a civil penalty from the California Energy Commission. The definition of excessive — including the maximum margin and penalty amounts — would be determined through the legislative process, according to the proposal. Any penalties collected would go to a “Price Gouging Penalty Fund” that would be redistributed to Californians. The proposal also aims to improve transparency and oversight of the oil industry by the state and expand the abilities of the California Energy Commission and the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration to obtain data on costs, profits and pricing.To back up the proposal, the governor’s office referred to a list of occasions in which oil companies reported record high profits during the third quarter of 2022.Among those cited was a surge in profits for Phillips 66 to $5.4 billion — a 1,243 percent increase over last year’s $402 million. Meanwhile, BP posted is second-highest profits on record — $8.2 billion — with $2.5 billion going toward share buybacks for Wall Street investors. Gains at Marathon Petroleum rose to $4.5 billion, compared to $694 million during the same period last year, while $2.82 billion in profits at Valero in the third quarter marked a 500 percent surge over last year.
Big Oil talks ‘transition’ but perpetuates petroleum, House documents say -- Some of the world’s major oil companies remain internally skeptical about the “energy transition” to a low-carbon economy, even as they publicly portray their firms as partners in the cause, according to documents obtained by The Washington Post that a House committee released Friday.The documents are part of a trove obtained by the House Committee on Oversight and Reform during a year-long investigation. They reveal oil company executives dismissing the potential for renewable energy to quickly replace fossil fuels, while working to secure a future for natural gas. They also detail industry efforts to secure government tax credits for carbon capture projects that might relieve them of the need to drastically alter their business models. The documents — many of them copies of internal emails between oil company officials — describe ExxonMobil’s efforts in 2021 to persuade big industrial firms and oil giants to co-sponsor a mammoth carbon capture project in Texas. Elsewhere, in one email string, officials at Shell discuss whether BP, Shell and TotalEnergies — a French oil firm — increased their carbon footprints by selling Canadian oil sands interests to more eager investors.Big petroleum companies have come under fire for selling off oil sands properties to smaller businesses, effectively reshuffling the carbon dioxide liability. In response to that criticism, one spokesperson said: “What exactly are we supposed to do instead of divesting … pour concrete over the oil sands and burn the deed to the land so no one can buy them?Scientists say the world must rapidly transition from fossil fuels to prevent the worst expected effects of climate change, a position shared by Democrats on the House Oversight Committee.For more than a year, the committee has been investigating a handful of major oil companies, along with two of the biggest trade groups in Washington, the American Petroleum Institute and U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The investigation has sought documents about the industry’s campaigns to influence public opinion and policy on climate change.The committee says the industry is misleading the public by advertising a commitment to cleaner energy even as it disproportionately invests in fossil fuels. The committee has accused oil companies of continued deception, following previous revelations about oil companies working to undermine the credibility of climate science.“These documents demonstrate how the fossil fuel industry ‘greenwashed’ its public image with promises and actions that oil and gas executives knew would not meaningfully reduce emissions, even as the industry moved aggressively to lock in continued fossil fuel production for decades to come,” Chairwoman Carolyn B. Maloney (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), chair of the environment subcommittee, said in a Friday memo outlining their findings to the rest of the committee.With Democrats losing control of the House in last month’s midterms, this is likely to mark the end of their investigation. Republicans are promising a different day.
U.S. Oil Exports Hit Record High - U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products hit an all-time high of 11.8 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, The Maritime Executive reports. In the week to November 25, a total of 11.776 million bpd of U.S. crude and petroleum were exported, the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed. The jump in American crude and product exports came days before the EU embargo on imports of Russian crude oil by sea, which came into effect on December 5, along with a price cap set by the EU and G7 at $60 per barrel for Russia’s crude, if traders want to use Western maritime transportation services for shipping Russian oil.Of all the 11.8 million bpd of American crude and products exported last week, seaborne exports of U.S. crude oil exceeded 7.1 million bpd, an all-time high, according to TankerTrackers.com. The tanker-tracking service counted 15 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) or ultra-large crude carriers (ULCCs)—each capable of transporting 2 million barrels of oil—departing U.S. ports last week, it said on Monday.According to the EIA’s data, weekly American crude exports have also set records multiple times in recent weeks. The United States has ramped up exports of crude as the EU looks to non-Russian supply due to the embargo. In fact, U.S. exports of crude and petroleum products have been steadily rising this year, especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine upended energy trade flows and buyers started shunning Russian products or began preparations to purchase non-Russian supplies.The Port of Corpus Christi, Texas, for example, has set records this year in tonnage exported, largely due to crude oil exports. In the third quarter, the port beat its previous record from the second quarter, driven in large part by record exports of crude oil.
U.S. pledges to ramp up supplies of natural gas to Britain as Biden and Sunak seek to cut off Russia — The U.K. and U.S. are forming a new energy partnership focused on boosting energy security and reducing prices. In a statement Wednesday, the U.K. government said the new partnership would “drive work to reduce global dependence on Russian energy exports, stabilise energy markets and step up collaboration on energy efficiency, nuclear and renewables.”The U.K.-U.S. Energy Security and Affordability Partnership, as it’s known, will be directed by a U.K.-U.S. Joint Action Group headed up by officials from both the White House and U.K. government. Among other things, the group will undertake efforts to make sure the market ramps up supplies of liquefied natural gas from the U.S. to the U.K. “As part of this, the US will strive to export at least 9-10 billion cubic metres of LNG over the next year via UK terminals, more than doubling the level exported in 2021 and capitalising on the UK’s leading import infrastructure,” Wednesday’s announcement said. “The group will also work to reduce global reliance on Russian energy by driving efforts to increase energy efficiency and supporting the transition to clean energy, expediting the development of clean hydrogen globally and promoting civil nuclear as a secure use of energy,” it added. Commenting on the plans, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “We have the natural resources, industry and innovative thinking we need to create a better, freer system and accelerate the clean energy transition.” “This partnership will bring down prices for British consumers and help end Europe’s dependence on Russian energy once and for all.” The news comes at a time of huge disruption within global energy markets following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February.
TotalEnergies To Cut £100M In 2023 North Sea Investments - TotalEnergies’ North Sea business chief said that the French firm would cut investment by a quarter next year due to the UK Government’s windfall tax. In a statement the TotalEnergies UK country chairman Jean-Luc Guiziou gave to Energy Voice, he stated that the move would see the company cut tens of millions of pounds from its North Sea investment plans for 2023. More precisely, TotalEnergies’ investment cut for next year equates to £100m. This is a consequence of UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt increasing the Energy Profits levy – otherwise known as the windfall tax – to a total of 35 percent and extending it until 2028. As a result, oil and gas firms will now pay 75% tax in total on profits through to the end of that year, even if oil prices fall, in an attempt to raise around £40bn for the Treasury. “Following another change to the fiscal environment for energy investors in the UK, we are now evaluating the impact of this change on our current and planned projects. We note that without a price floor to the EPL, the current regime will affect short-cycle investments, in particular infill wells. For 2023 alone, our investments will be cut by 25 percent,” Guiziou told Energy Voice. Guiziou added that a competitive and stable fiscal and regulatory regime was “vital to investment in critical energy and infrastructure projects” that would help meet the UK’s energy security needs and net zero ambitions. “The energy industry operates in a cyclical market and is subject to volatile commodity prices. We believe that the Government should remain open to reviewing the energy profits levy if prices reduce before 2028,” he said in the statement. TotalEnergies is not the only company that is seeing the levy impact its bottom line. Many producers saw their share prices drop since the windfall tax was introduced. “The average UK independent producer has seen their share price fall by more than 20 percent since the EPL announcement. In the same period, the share price of the UK-listed majors has increased by almost 10 percent and US independents have seen an increase of over 25 percent. Increased pressure from our global providers of capital for geographic diversification should surprise no one,” Harbour Energy CEO Linda Cook said in a letter recently. Additionally, Harbour was demoted from the FTSE 100 index to the 250 with the changes taking effect from the start of trading on December 19. Harbour’s share price drop also pushed the company to speed up its work on diversifying its portfolio worldwide as the UK-focused firm has been hard hit by the windfall tax.
The Rising Risk Of Russian Oil Spills In Scandinavia - The narrow waterway between Denmark and Sweden – a key chokepoint for oil supply from Russia’s western ports – will see the risk of oil spills increase when the EU sanctions against Russian oil exports by sea enter into force at the end of this year. The UN agency International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Danish maritime authorities strongly recommend the use of a specialized pilot on ships passing through the Danish straits with its many islands. Although not obligatory, the recommendation is widely followed by the industry, with pilots being used on 95% of all 196 oil tankers that crossed the Great Belt, the main channel in the straits, last month, per data from the Danish Maritime Authority cited by the Financial Times.However, the EU sanctions against Russian oil exports by sea would in theory ban the provision of EU maritime transportation services to vessels carrying Russian oil, including specialized pilots from Denmark to help navigate the Danish straits. This, if not addressed, could raise the risk of dangerous and environmentally-disastrous oil spills from ships that would not use a specialized pilot or try to go dark and circumvent the sanctions“Failure to comply with the rules and recommendations of the IMO will not only pose an environmental risk to Danish territorial waters. It will also pose a risk to the safety of navigation and the crew members on board the ships,” the Danish Maritime Authority told FT.The authority and the IMO “highly recommend” the usage of pilots on ships traveling through the Danish straits, but still, the Danish Maritime Authority told Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas earlier this month: “In conclusion, Denmark cannot prevent oil tankers from passing from the Baltic Sea to the high seas.” Analysts believe that there could be a compromise or some sort of solution to this situation because it’s estimated that around 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude passes through the Danish straits from Russia’s Baltic Sea ports en route to the Atlantic.
Norway, Germany Propose NATO Subsea Asset Surveillance Center - Norway Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agreed to propose that NATO should establish a surveillance center to improve the protection of subsea infrastructure, the Norwegian government has announced. “Chancellor Scholz and I have taken an informal initiative today to improve the protection of subsea infrastructure,” Støre said in a statement posted on the Norwegian government’s website. “We are suggesting that NATO should establish a dedicated surveillance center for this purpose,” he added. In the statement, the Norwegian government said subsea infrastructure is vital for the overall European economy “and for our security” and noted that further action is needed to protect this infrastructure. “Norway feels a special responsibility for security of natural gas supply in Europe. It is vital to maintain gas supplies,” the government said in the statement. “Norway, together with its allies, has taken a number of steps to protect gas infrastructure. However, countries and industries need to share more information, and civilian and military actors should work more closely together,” the government added. In a statement posted on his Twitter page, Scholz said, “the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea showed that our critical infrastructure must be protected more comprehensively”. “NATO should take on more tasks in protecting the critical infrastructure in the sea, Jens Stoltenberg and I agree on that,” he added.
Will Full Gas Stores Save Europe From An Energy Emergency? - The European Union has spent most of this year importing natural gas from any source available, including sanctioned Russia, after it sanctioned it and began preparing for the time when Russia will turn off the gas tap, which it did, on Nord Stream 1, at least, in the summer. The media have spent that time citing politicians, businesspeople, and commentators and fueling fears that winter in Europe this year will likely be harsh, however much gas there’s in storage. But it seems there’s plenty of gas in storage. If only that were enough for comfort Earlier this month, Reuters’ John Kemp wrote in a column that Europe had completed a record-long gas storage refill season, saying storage inputs likely peaked around mid-November. The longest and largest refill season on record, he wrote, was probably over, but over its length, European countries had managed to stock up well on natural gas ahead of winter.That was certainly good news, especially coupled with a mild October and much of November, which meant naturally lower consumption rather than attempts to mandate lower consumption. This week, Kemp wrote another column that cited data showing it pretty likely that Europe might end up coming out of winter with some gas still left in storage—quite a bit of it, in fact. But there are conditions. The mild weather that was a big reason why Europe has the levels of gas in storage it does at this time of year will also be a big reason for Kemp’s forecast to materialize. The problem with the weather is that even if the European winter is mild, it cannot be mild enough in December and January to prompt the same energy consumption in October. Simply put, it’s never as warm in January as it can sometimes be in October. And this means that demand for heating energy will inevitably increase next month and the month after. And this will mean higher gas consumption in countries that rely on it for heating purposes. And this, in turn, will mean storage drawdowns. Yet, with record levels of gas in storage, this should not be a cause for worry, although it seems to be for some German officials. The head of the country’s energy regulator, Klasu Mueller, for instance, warned in early October—when a cold spell pushed energy consumption higher—that “We will hardly be able to avoid a gas emergency in winter without at least 20% savings in the private, commercial and industrial sectors.” “The situation can become very serious if we do not significantly reduce our gas consumption,” he also said, even though Germany was at the time filling up its gas storage facilities steadily and discussing with its fellow EU members emergency measures such as joint gas buying and gas sharing. Then, in November, Reuters quoted Mueller as saying that Germany’s gas storage could empty in a matter of days if the weather gets very cold. “Just a few freezing cold days are enough for a dramatic increase in gas consumption,” he said. When he said it, gas storage levels in Germany had reached 99.3 percent. Indeed, everyone who has spent any amount of time in a temperate climate during the winter knows that when it’s cold, few would have the strength of character to freeze instead of turning up the thermostat. According to Kemp, high prices will be a natural deterrent for gas consumption but, again, when people are cold, the one thing they can think about is getting warm, not what the price of gas is. It’s either that or a lot of people with cold-related health problems all at once. A lower consumption is also among the factors that Reuters’ market analyst notes as necessary for Europe to end winter with a decent level of gas in its storage caverns. So, the natural deterrent of high prices will not be enough to keep consumption low, and that is, as noted above, to be expected. The other condition Kemp sees as necessary for Europe’s gas storage comfort in three months is the continued flow of Russian gas via Ukraine. It seems despite its best efforts, Europe still very much relies on Russian gas.
Hot Air Versus Hot Cash – The Europeans Prefer Russian LNG To US LNG - Since the war began in February, Ursula von der Leyen did not say a true word until November 30, when she announced that Ukrainian military deaths had reached more than 100,000, and civilian fatalities more than 20,000. Within hours these numbers were removed from the published record of her speech. Von der Leyen’s admission implied the war toll of Ukrainian wounded is more than 300,000, and that the sum of military and civilian casualties has already reached half a million. Von der Leyen was confirming Russian estimates and contradicting the Kiev regime’s propaganda.In September von der Leyen announced her support for a price cap on the international trade in exports of Russian pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Last month she said the European Union is “ready to go” with a price cap on Russian oil exports. However, the European and Asian gas and oil trade is not only contradicting what von der Leyen is claiming; it is demonstrating they are profiting from her public lies. In the gas market there is new evidence that the French, Dutch and Belgian governments are allowing the purchase of record volumes of imported Russian LNG, and the re-export of this gas at a profit to other European states, including Germany. The arbitrage – that is, the profit from buying Russian LNG at the Russian selling price and then reselling it at a premium to European consumers – is so lucrative, the Chinese are diverting their contracted volumes of Russian LNG to Europe. Olga Samofalova, the energy market analyst at Vzglyad , reported yesterday on how the markets are defeating the sanctions.While pipeline gas supplies from Russia are under scrutiny, the European Union (EU) is quietly buying up more and more volumes of the other Russian gas – that is, liquefied natural gas (LNG). Europe’s costs of importing Russian LNG have soared to record levels, Bloomberg has discovered. How did Russia start supplying more liquefied natural gas to Europe and, most importantly, why do the Europeans themselves see nothing terrible in this?As you know, Brussels has imposed a Russian coal embargo; an oil embargo will start operating in a week. A number of countries have refused pipeline gas supplies; others have let technical and bureaucratic problems of the “Northern Streams” take their course. They claim not to have noticed the destruction of the Nordstream pipelines or the way in which the Ukraine has been so unaffected by the present situation that it has restored the transit volumes of gas across Ukrainian territory.At the same time, Europe’s costs for importing Russian LNG in 2022 have soared to a record level, according to Bloomberg. The EU has increased the purchase of LNG from Russia by about 40% over this year. The EU spent a record €12.5 billion ($13 billion) on Russian LNG from January to September – five times more than a year earlier. This is a bitter pill for many countries of the bloc, which imposed tough sanctions on the Kremlin in order to deprive it of funds to conduct its military operations in Ukraine, the western news agency writes.
Winter Chill Exposing Europe Gas Shortage - The winter chill is exposing Europe’s structural gas shortages, according to a new report from BofA Global Research. “Winter weather has ushered in seasonal heating demand; more than doubling European gas consumption versus the summer months,” analysts at BofA Global Research stated in the report, which was sent to Rigzone. “Inventories are now in full withdrawal mode and TTF day-ahead gas prices have jumped 7x versus recent lows. Even full European inventories can barely cover two months of peak winter demand alone, emphasising our view that daily flows are of much greater significance to structural market balances,” the analysts added. “Until new LNG supply hits the market in 2025/26, we see little tangible relief, outside of seasonality, to exceptionally tight LNG markets and by virtue higher-for-longer European pricing. We reiterate Buy ratings on Equinor, Shell, TotalEnergies, Harbour and Energean as key gas market beneficiaries,” the analysts continued. In the report, BofA Global Research analysts estimated that Europe will be physically short of around 70 billion cubic meters across 2023 in the absence of demand destruction, “even when maximizing practical LNG import capacity”. “The only balancing item to this is demand destruction in our view, for which persistently high price are required to drive,” the analysts said in the report. In a separate market note sent to Rigzone this week, Rystad Energy Senior Analyst Zongqiang Luo highlighted that European temperatures had continued to decline in the first week of December. The analyst outlined that this development pushed weekly average storage withdrawals “to some 470 million cubic meters per day and LNG imports to a record monthly high of 11.4 million tons”. Luo also highlighted in the note that a new long term LNG deal was signed between Sempra and Ineos, “boosting supply to Europe’s gas market”. In another market note, Rystad’s Senior Analyst Fabian Rønningen said Europe’s cold snap saw a gas demand surge, “with the UK being the highest priced market as wind generation falls”.
Without Russian Gas LNG Market Faces 3 Years Of High Prices |- European winter is looking better than previously hoped, but it’s been at a severe cost of extremely high prices, lower affordability for consumers, and a weakened economy. According to data from Wood Mackenzie, high prices have hit demand hard – down 22% for non-power sectors year-on-year from July to October – and pulled in LNG supplies destined for Asia. This rebalancing, combined with warm weather in recent weeks, has kept storage 93% full which is much higher than the normal 80% for early December. Cold weather is now the principal risk this winter, but WoodMac believes there should be enough gas, barring an exceptionally long and cold winter. But, with absent Russian gas, the market faces three more years of elevated prices and the repeat cycle of refilling storage with alternative sources of imported pipe gas and LNG in the summer, managing demand through the year and hoping for the best each winter. It’s only in calendar 2026 that relief finally arrives with sizeable new supplies of LNG. Until then, there will be a compounding effect of high prices on consumers and economic growth. One of the reasons for this is the fact that the world is in the early stages of an LNG boom cycle. WoodMac claimed that global supply would increase by 45% by 2030. In the last two years, new projects that will deliver 78 mtpa of supply have been sanctioned, and another 90 mtpa will be sanctioned from 2023 to 2025. Around $400 billion in investments is required in liquefaction, shipping, and regasification alone as well as multiples more on upstream gas. Two-thirds of the nearly $200 billion liquefaction spend is destined for plants in North America. The new volumes will relieve the pressure on the system and bring prices down from today’s exceptional levels. There is even some risk of oversupply that could result in very weak prices temporarily as projects ramp up between 2027 and 2029. “The investment in gas infrastructure getting underway across Europe will be critical. New regas capacity and interconnectors should ease the bottlenecks exposed this year and help gas to flow to the right places at the right time. With Europe increasingly dependent on imported LNG in gas and power markets, price volatility is here to stay. Europe will continue to compete with Asia for LNG supply at times of high demand. We expect European gas prices to settle around $9 to $10/mbtu, structurally higher than before the war, to reflect these factors,” Woodmac said. LNG is still a longer-term growth story Gas and LNG will play a critical role in achieving net zero by 2050 by displacing higher carbon-intensity coal in developing economies. But that will only happen if LNG is more affordable than it is today – gas prices must come down. Woodmac expects LNG demand to grow by 200 mtpa, or 50%, over the next 10 years. Asia accounts for two-thirds, much of it in China and India as well as in Pakistan and Bangladesh where the domestic gas supply is declining. In contrast, LNG imports to mature Asian gas markets such as Japan and South Korea are set to decline as they diversify their energy mix towards renewables and nuclear. Europe is still a hot market with LNG demand jumping 60% in 2022 and set for a further 25% growth by 2028. After that though, in the company’s latest view, demand declines quite steeply through the 2030s as the EU accelerates its push to low-carbon energy. There is further downside risk if the EU’s policy achieves its ambitious REPowerEU goals.
European Union officials set Russian oil price cap at $60 a barrel - The European Union on Friday agreed to cap Russian seaborne oil prices at $60 a barrel, after several days of intense negotiations over an appropriate level. The announcement comes after the G-7 group of advanced economies agreed in September to impose a limit on Russian seaborne crude and therefore constrain revenues the Kremlin makes from the commodity. However, details on how the cap would work in practice have been debated and hashed out since that point. Russia, amid its onslaught in Ukraine, has warned that an oil price cap could wreak havoc on the energy markets and push commodity prices even higher. The price limit will be reviewed regularly to monitor its market ramifications, but it should be “at least 5% below the average market price,” an EU document with details of the cap said. Negotiations had been held up by Poland, with ministers in Warsaw scrutinizing but then agreeing to the 5% adjustment mechanism. A formal announcement is expected Sunday. Energy analysts have warned that the G-7 will need support from other major buyers if the cap is to be effective. China and India, for instance, increased their purchases of Russian oil following the invasion of Ukraine to benefit from discounted rates offered by Moscow. Kadri Simson, European commissioner for energy, told CNBC in September that China and India should support the measure. “It is unfair to pay excess revenues to Russia,” Simson said at the time. But there seems to be little appetite from these nations to comply with the cap. India’s petroleum minister, Shri Hardeep S Puri, told CNBC in September he has a “moral duty” to his country’s consumers. “We will buy oil from Russia, we will buy from wherever,” he added.
Russian oil selling at $79/barrel in Asia on Monday, well above price cap - (Reuters) - Russia's ESPO oil blend from the Far Eastern port of Kozmino was selling for around $79 a barrel in Asian markets on Monday - almost a third higher than the price cap imposed on Russian oil by the G7 and European Union - according to Refinitiv data and estimates from industry sources. Russia exports up to 65 million tons of ESPO Blend oil per year via the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline, including up to 35 million tons through the port of Kozmino.
EU Embargo of Russian Oil and G7’s Price Cap Take Effect - The New York Times -Europe and the United States started enforcing on Monday two of the toughest measures aimed at curbing Russia’s income from oil, the principal source of cash used to fund its nearly 10-month-old war in Ukraine. But there was no drastic impact on oil markets — prices were largely unchanged by late afternoon — and that was by design. The first measure, a price cap initiative led by the United States, sets a top price of $60 per barrel for Russian crude, and was endorsed by the Group of 7 countries, Australia, and the European Union. The second is an embargo that prohibits European Union countries from buying most Russian crude as of Monday. It was a step that the bloc had agreed to months ago but that was phased in with exceptions to prepare member nations. Although some countries like Poland and Estonia were bent on punishing Russia with a far lower price cap — a move that some feared would prompt the Kremlin to slash production — the U.S. approach seeks to gradually limit Russia’s oil revenues while also providing enough financial incentive to keep the crude flowing onto the global market, avoiding oil shocks. The price cap program prohibits firms that play a key role in servicing Russian oil exports — like Greek tanker companies and Europe-based insurers — from dealing with cargoes sold above the $60-a-barrel limit. That cap roughly matches what buyers are said to be paying for Russian crude, a discount of almost $20 a barrel from Brent crude that buyers have demanded since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February. Dig deeper into the moment. Special offer: Subscribe for $1 a week. The bet is that despite bluster from the Kremlin, Russia will keep pumping oil, and major customers for Russian crude, like refiners in China and India, will see a benefit in the combination of low prices and a relatively stable global oil market.
The West just scrambled the oil market. What happens next is up to Russia | CNN – Most Russian crude oil exports to Europe are now banned, marking the boldest effort yet by the West to pile financial pressure on President Vladimir Putin as his brutal war in Ukraine enters its tenth month. The oil embargo, which was agreed upon in late May, took effect in the European Union on Monday. It was accompanied by a new price cap on Russian crude set by G7 countries. That’s designed to limit the Kremlin’s revenues while allowing countries such as China and India to continue to buy Russian oil, provided they don’t pay more than $60 a barrel.What happens next will likely hinge on the response from Moscow, which has vowed not to cooperate with the price cap and could slash its production, rattling global energy markets. Global crude prices were up 2.6% on Monday as investors watched nervously for the next move. The European Union now prohibits Russian crude oil imports by sea, setting up the bloc to have phased out 90% of oil imports from Russia. It’s a huge move given that Europe received roughly a third of its oil imports from Russia in 2021. More than half of Russia’s exports went to Europe 12 months ago.There are a few exceptions. Bulgaria received a temporary carve-out. The embargo also doesn’t target imports via pipeline. That means the Druzhba pipeline can continue to supply Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. (Germany and Poland are working to end pipeline imports from Russia as soon as possible.)But the embargo is significant. In 2021, the EU imported €48 billion ($50.7 billion) worth of crude oil and €23 billion ($24.3 billion) of refined oil products from Russia. Two-thirds of those imports arrived by sea.A ban on Russian refined oil products, such as diesel fuel, imported by sea will launch in early February.
Tankers seen heading to Russia as oil price cap goes into effect on exports -Two tankers were heading to Russia on Monday expecting to be filled with Russian crude as a price cap on its oil exports from a coalition of Western countries went into affect. On Friday, the European Union agreed to cap Russian seaborne oil prices at $60 a barrel, aiming to limit Moscow’s revenues and curb its ability to finance its invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin and high-ranking Kremlin officials have repeatedly said that they will not supply oil to countries that implement the price cap. In comments published on Telegram following the cap being agreed upon, Russia’s embassy in the United States criticized what it said was the “reshaping” of free market principles and reiterated that its oil would continue to be in demand despite the measures. But while Russia is moving forward on its vow to not sell its oil to countries that implement the price cap, it is not being deterred in finding buyers for its oil. The G7 price cap will allow non-EU countries to continue importing seaborne Russian crude oil, but it has to be sold for less than the price cap. Trade intelligence firm VesselsValue, which tracks the trade of Russian oil, told CNBC that there has been a substantial decrease in Russian crude as European imports with alternative markets instead being sought out. “This is expected to carry on into December as the strong sanctions begin,” said Peter William, trade product manager at VesselsValue. “Russia has potentially found substitute markets for their crude with both India and China increasing seaborne imports from Russia.” Jacques Rousseau, managing director of global oil and gas at ClearView Energy Partners, told CNBC there is a disconnect between the U.S. Energy Information Administration and OPEC Russian oil production forecasts. “When comparing 4Q 2022 to 1Q 2023, the EIA projects a decrease of ~1.35 MM bbl/d vs. OPEC’s forecast of a ~0.85 MM bbl/d decline,” said Rousseau. “The magnitude of the quarter-on-quarter Russian oil production decline could be the difference between a global balance shortfall or surplus in 1Q 2023, and whether or not OPEC+ needs to reduce its production targets again.” MarineTraffic is seeing two empty tankers heading to Russia. One is the tankers is Minerva Marina, sailing under the Maltese Flag. The other is the Moskovsky Prospect, sailing under the Liberian Flag, and came directly from Bombay, India. Vessel traffic and tanker gridlock AIS data which tracks vessel traffic is showing a number of tankers in the Black Sea, mainly crude and chemical tankers from Russia which are in transit and have listed various locations as their destinations, including India, the UAE, and China, according to a MarineTraffic spokesperson. Meanwhile, tanker gridlock is building as a result of Turkey demanding tankers have proof of insurance to travel through Istanbul in the Bosphorus Strait.
Oil tanker jam forms off Turkey after start of Russian oil price cap – FT - (Reuters) - A traffic jam of oil tankers is forming off the coast of Turkey after the start of the cap on prices of Russian crude, the Financial Times reported on Monday. The report said four oil industry executives said Turkey had demanded new proof of full insurance coverage for any vessels navigating its straits in light of the Russian oil price cap. A $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil took effect on Monday, the latest Western measure to punish Moscow over its invasion. The agreement allows Russian oil to be shipped to third-party countries using tankers from G7 and European Union member states, insurance companies and credit institutions, only if the cargo is bought at or below the $60 per barrel cap.
Millions of Barrels of Oil Halted Near Turkey - A backlog of oil tankers at the Turkish straits continues to build up as negotiations failed to produce a solution to an insurance glitch caused by sanctions on Russian crude. Twenty six tankers holding more than 23 million barrels of oil from Kazakhstan were unable to pass the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits as of Wednesday, shipping data compiled by Bloomberg showed. The waterways are vital chokepoints for the flow of crude and other commodities from the Black Sea. Kazakh authorities estimated a smaller backlog. Late last month, Turkey announced that passing tankers would have to provide letters from their insurers proving they were covered to navigate the straits, through which almost 700 million barrels of crude flowed in the past year. Turkey’s move was a response to European Union sanctions against Russia that bar insurance of vessels if the oil they’re carrying costs above $60 a barrel. US and UK officials are pushing for Turkey to reconsider the proof-of-insurance requirement, especially given that cargoes from Kazakhstan are not subject to sanctions. So far they’ve been unsuccessful. The US Treasury Department, which devised the so-called price cap for Russian crude to soften sanctions, said in a statement Wednesday that Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo told Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Onal that the program only applies to oil of Russian origin and “does not necessitate additional checks.” “Both officials highlighted their shared interest in keeping global energy markets well-supplied by creating a simple compliance regime that would permit seaborne oil to transit the Turkish straits,” the Treasury Department said in the statement. All Kazakh tankers and cargoes have been insured and the companies providing the cover — mainly British insurers - are holding talks with Turkish authorities, news agency Tass reported Thursday, citing Magzum Mirzagaliev, chief executive officer of national producer NC KazMunayGas. He estimated that only eight to 10 of the tankers stuck in the Turkish straits are “related to Kazakhstan.” A local port agent report said that only one laden tanker — the Vladimir Tikhonov — has passed through the straits since Turkey’s new rule entered into force. That ship is thought to have had Russian cover. Until the insurance impasse is resolved, it’s impossible to estimate when the vessels might be allowed through, the agent said. As of Thursday morning local time, the situation remained unresolved, it said. For insurers, issuing the documentary evidence is both an extra piece of bureaucracy, but it also sets a potential precedent that other locations might seek to follow. Tankers often end up waiting a several days at the straits at this time of year anyway because of shortened daylight hours for transit and bad weather.
Russian oil sanctions fuel boom for old tankers (Reuters) - The market for old oil tankers is booming, and it's all down to efforts by Western nations to curb trade in Russian crude.As Western shipping and maritime services firms steer clear of Russian oil to avoid falling foul of sanctions or harming their reputations, new companies have leapt into the void, and they're snapping up old tankers that might normally be scrapped.The European Union banned all seaborne Russian crude imports from Dec. 5, with a fuel import ban to follow in February. It also banned companies and individuals in the bloc from providing financing, brokerage, shipping and insurance services to ship Russian oil elsewhere if the crude was bought above a price cap of $60 a barrel that came into effect on Monday.In recent months, ageing tankers have been sold by Greek and Norwegian owners for record prices to pop-up Middle Eastern and Asian buyers taking advantage of sky-high charter prices for vessels willing to ship Russian oil to India and China.Tanker management companies such as Fractal Shipping, run out of Swiss financial hub of Geneva, are reaping the rewards.In less than a year, Fractal has put together a fleet of 23 oil and fuel tankers bought recently by owners in Dubai. Most are taking Russian crude from Baltic and Black Sea ports to Asia, Refinitiv Eikon ship tracking showed.Chief Executive Mathieu Philippe said he launched the idea for Fractal a year ago, betting that the global tanker fleet was getting stretched and that both the cost of vessels and freight rates would inevitably rise from pandemic lows.
Shipping Costs for Russian Oil Soar - Shipping costs for Russian crude are skyrocketing as more tanker owners shun the trade days before stricter European Union sanctions take effect. Owners who are still willing to load Russian crude are attempting to charge more for the risk. Baltic Sea-to-India rates are being discussed at about $15 million -- or $20 a barrel --- for loadings after Dec. 5 when new EU restrictions kick in, said shipbrokers. That’s a sharp increase from $9 million to $11.5 million before. The surge in costs reflects the challenges faced by suppliers of Russian crude ahead of the deadline when the EU, including some of the world’s top tanker owners in Greece, will stop extending shipping and other services for oil produced by the OPEC+ nation. Fewer available ships and the need for Russian oil to be diverted from traditional buyers in Europe to new ones in Asia and the Middle East are also contributing to higher rates. The exorbitant freight is in turn eroding the value of Russian crudes, such as the flagship Urals grade, at their load port as sellers ensure that the final price of delivered oil remains competitive against alternatives. Exports from the Baltic Sea, where Urals loads, rely on small to mid-size vessels such as Aframax and Suezmax tankers. Participants in the global shipping market are also waiting for details on an oil cap proposed by the Group of Seven countries that could exempt shipments from EU sanctions as long as they trade below the price limit. Members of the 27-nation bloc are closing in on a deal to cap the price at $60 a barrel this week. Russia earlier said that it won’t sell oil and gas to nations that join the cap. The lack of clarity surrounding exemptions is paving the way for a shift to the so-called dark fleet, or tankers held by undisclosed owners who are willing to continue handling Russian oil despite the threat of sanctions. These ships mostly comprise of older vessels and many with a track record of dealing with sanctioned regimes such as Iran. It’s unclear if Baltic-to-India freight rates will hold at around $15 million should Urals crude fall under the price cap, nor is it clear if any bookings have been fully concluded at that level. Meanwhile, some mid-sized tankers typically used to haul cleaner refined fuels are considering a switch to crude to tap the strengthening rates. The EU is set to roll out sanctions targeting logistical, banking and insurance services for Russian oil-product trades in February.
Russian oil cap will work, EU ministers insist, despite Kremlin opposition and broad skepticism — — A price cap on Russian seaborne oil will work, EU ministers told CNBC, despite attempts from the Kremlin to escape sanctions and a broad market skepticism over the measure. The EU, alongside the G-7 and Australia, agreed on Friday to limit the purchases of Russian oil to $60 a barrel as part of a concerted effort to curtail Moscow’s ability to fund its war in Ukraine. The price cap came into force on Monday. In essence, the measure stipulates oil produced in Russia can only be sold with the necessary insurance approval at or below $60 a barrel. Insurance companies are mostly based in G-7 nations. However, Russia has already said it will not sell oil to nations complying with the cap and that it is ready to cut production to maintain its revenues from the commodity. In addition, reports suggested that it has been putting together a fleet of about 100 vessels to avoid oil sanctions. Having its own so-called “shadow fleet” would allow the Kremlin to sell its oil without needing insurance from the G-7 or other nations. When asked if the oil cap can work in reducing Russia’s oil revenues, Irish Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe said, “Yes, it can.” It is “the right message at the right time,” he said in an interview with CNBC on Monday. One of the big open questions is the role of India and China in the implementation of this price cap. Both nations have stepped up their purchases of Russian oil in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, and they are reluctant to agree to the cap. India’s petroleum minister reportedly said Monday that he “does not fear” the cap and he expects the policy to have limited impact. However, France’s Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told CNBC on Monday: “I think it’s worth trying.” “Then we will assess the consequences of the implementation of this oil cap,” he added. The level of the cap will be reviewed in early 2023. This revision will be done periodically and the aim is to set it “at least 5% below the average market price for Russian oil,” according to the agreement reached by EU nations last week. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said over the weekend that the limit on oil prices will help the bloc stabilize energy prices. The EU has been forced to abruptly reduce its dependence on Russian hydrocarbons due to the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. Market players, however, remain wary about the integrity of the policy. Analysts at Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group said in a note Monday that the scale of the price cap’s impact “remains ambiguous.” They added, “we have been sceptical on the practicalities of its success.” There is a risk that nations buy Russian oil at the agreed cap but then resell it at a higher price to Europe, for example. This would mean that Russia would still make money from the commodity sales while Europe would be paying more at a time when its economy is already slowing down. “The introduction of the cap on the price will probably not remove all the volume, some will find its way to the markets,” Angelina Valavina, head of EMEA Natural Resources and Commodities at the Fitch Group, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” Monday. Oil prices traded higher Tuesday morning in London.
Europe’s Energy Outlook Imperiled By Policy Myopia - The G7 facilitated price fix on Russian oil exports will likely embolden Moscow to use the illicit markets. The Kremlin could also evade sanctions by leveraging ties to the illicit market or ties with other marginal actors in the global south, but none are likely to result in the scale of the trade needed to offset problems with Europe. There is a precedent for this as Russian oil and gas businesses have hidden behind front companies that are not sanctioned and/or conducted business via third-party nations. Complex ship-to-ship transfer methods and obscure sailing patterns assist in this endeavor, where Russian energy exports are snuck into Europe under the auspices of being sold by a reputable business. Other nations looking to cash in on Russian sanctions will also participate, including India, Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Iran, an already sanctioned nation, will likely play a significant role, helping to facilitate illegal oil shipments through its various subsidiaries. Taken together, these pose a credible threat to the sanction regime. Even if winter temperatures are warmer than normal, Europe must collectively address its energy issues by encouraging technological advancement and productive dialogue at national and union levels. German President Olaf Scholz recently brokered a compromise between the Social Democrat and Green parties, ordering two of the three remaining nuclear German power plants to remain operational until mid-April. Yet, Germany’s stark reliance on Russian gas – up to 55% in 2021, and commitment to phase out the nuclear, should have warranted the diversification of energy sources. Now European energy producers such as Centrica, Fortum, Uniper and EDF are suffering. This deal could have easily included nuclear power, of which Germany derives only 6% of its energy. New nuclear technologies include small modular reactors, SMRs, into which luminaries such as Bill Gates and others are investing. Pebble bed reactor is another innovative technology that encourages higher efficiency electricity production through the use of enriched fuel pebbles in graphite reactor cores. Though capital-intensive, investment in these systems provides safer long-term solutions.Divisions between the far-right and far-left in Europe will impact any attempt at streamlining both energy security and efficiency. Political parties on the margins, especially in France and Germany, have voiced assertions that nuclear energy is unsafe even if crucial to thwarting reliance on Russia. The French anti-Atlanticist left-wing political coalition, led by Jean-Luc Melenchon, has lobbied for heavy nuclear energy restrictions, despite 70% of France’s electricity being sourced from atom-splitting While the United States is going out of its way to assist Ukraine and supply LNG and coal to a Europe facing Russian aggression, the European Union must look within to collectively wrest control of reliance on Russian energy and rethink anti-nuclear energy policies which caused today’s fiasco. Solar and wind are not a panacea due to the lack of storage and intermittency. The technology might catch up, but it would take a couple of decades. Though some may be discouraged by nuclear power or LNG terminal expansion, alternative security scenarios, especially those involving emboldening Russia and China, are far bleaker. Europe needs leadership, level-headed and balanced energy policies, and massive capital investment in the energy sector modernization, making electricity abundant, reliable, and affordable. Above all, it needs to divorce itself from energy and economic dependence on hostile great powers.
Russian Upstream Investments Projected to Plunge - Russian upstream investments are set to plunge by $15 billion this year. That’s according to Rystad Energy, which outlined that sanctions are obscuring the country’s production outlook in a statement sent to Rigzone this week. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February this year, upstream investments in Russia were expected to approach $50 billion this year, Rystad noted. This figure is now projected to hit $35 billion, Rystad highlighted. “The financial impact of Western sanctions and the widescale exodus of foreign partners from the Russian oil and gas sector are beginning to materialize,” Rystad said in a company statement. “Investments in Russia’s upstream sector totaled $45 billion last year, rebounding from Covid-19-induced lows of $40 billion in 2020. But as Russia becomes increasingly shut off from the global energy market, investments have sunk well below levels seen in the pandemic-affected years of 2020 and 2021 and will remain subdued until at least 2025,” the company added. The stagnation in investments will lead to a drop in project final investment decisions and force operators to make hard decisions on spending, according to Rystad, which said a significant factor limiting investments is the delay of several large LNG projects. Greenfield investments are set to suffer the largest drop in spending due to the sudden sharp decline in approval activity this year, Rystad noted. Investments in new Russian projects are projected to fall 40 percent from last year - from $13.7 billion to $8 billion. No significant new projects are expected to be sanctioned in Russia next year, but activity will resume in 2024 with the Gazprom-operated Chayandinskoye (Phase 2) gas-condensate field, Rystad outlined. Brownfield investments are expected to drop by 14 percent as oil production has not taken a significant hit, Rystad said. The impact of lower oil demand will be visible next year when brownfield investments will drop by approximately 20 percent compared to 2021, Rystad pointed out.
Petronas Makes Significant Discovery Offshore Malaysia - Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd (PCSB), a wholly owned subsidiary of Petronas, has announced an oil and gas discovery at the Nahara-1 well in Block SK306, off the coast of Sarawak, Malaysia. The Nahara-1 well was drilled to a total depth of 8,097 feet and encountered hydrocarbons in the Late Oligocene to Middle Miocene aged sedimentary sequences, Petronas revealed, adding that light oil with minimal contaminants was also established after production testing was conducted for the well. “We are excited with this discovery and its impact to the future exploration effort in the surrounding areas,” Petronas Vice President of Exploration, Mohd Redhani Abdul Rahman, said in a company statement. “Nahara-1 is a significant oil discovery by PCSB within the last decade. It is a testament to the vast potential in Malaysia’s prolific basins which remain highly prospective,” he added. “The discovery also reinforces PCSB’s current exploration strategy of renewing focus in its exploration efforts in Malaysia’s basins,” the Petronas vice president continued. PCSB is the operator of the block, with a 100 percent participating interest in its production sharing contract. Last month, Petronas announced its first oil discovery in Brazil’s Sépia Field. The net oil column in the 4-BRSA-1386D-RJS well is one of the thickest ever recorded in Brazil, according to Petronas, which dubbed the find “significant”. In September Petronas announced a new gas discovery in the Central Luconia Province offshore Malaysia. During the same month, the company announced its first oil discovery in Suriname. Petronas outlined that the Malaysia find hit a more than 360-foot gas column in Miocene Cycle IV/V pinnacle carbonate reservoirs, and firmed up more gas resources within Block SK320, and described the Suriname discovery as an important milestone for Petronas in unlocking deepwater hydrocarbon resource from its exploration ventures.
Analyst Looks at Latest Oil Price Moves - After a nine-day downtrend, WTI prices stair-stepped to a three-week high this week on a possible further output cut by the OPEC+ group, Covid-19 lockdown easing in China, a large inventory draw, an expected halt to SPR releases, and a weaker U.S. dollar. Brent crude, however, managed to recover from a 10-month low to a two-week high, aided by the prospect of a cap on Russian oil which could lead to less of the Urals hitting the global market. WTI has risen to as high as $81.50 per barrel recently while Brent approached $89.40. Both grades look to end higher week over week. The only bearish signal of the week appeared to be the continuing increases in gasoline and distillate stocks. This week’s EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report indicated that inventories of commercial crude fell by a substantial 12.6 million barrels to 419 million, slipping to eight percent below normal for this time of year. The API reported that inventories declined 7.9 million barrels, while the WSJ survey predicted a decrease of 2.1 million barrels. Refinery utilization ticked-up to 95.2 percent vs 93.9 percent the prior week. Total motor gasoline inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels to 214 million barrels, now at four percent below average. Distillates increased 3.5 million barrels to 113 million barrels, rising to 11 percent below normal. Crude oil stocks at the key Cushing, OK, hub fell 415,000 barrels to 24.3 million barrels, or 31 percent of capacity. Imports of crude oil were six million barrels per day, while crude exports were 4.95 million barrels per day, the highest level in several weeks. Exports of refined products were 6.8 million barrels per day, up from 5.7 million barrels per day. Volumes withdrawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 1.4 million barrels, which dropped the total inventory to 389 million barrels. U.S. oil production held at 12.1 million barrels per day vs 11.6 million barrels per day last year at this time. September oil production, at 12.3 million barrels per day average, was the highest since March 2020. Venezuelan crude may return to U.S. refiners now that Chevron has been cleared to resume oil production in that country. The U.S. government wants to double the inventory of heating oil and crude in the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserves (NEHHOR) to help lower prices and ensure adequate supplies exist. Currently, there is about one million barrels in storage. The OPEC+ group will meet this weekend with market watchers speculating that additional cuts could be announced if Brent stays below $90 per barrel. The Biden administration has approved the Sea Port Oil Terminal, one of four proposed offshore terminals planned to increase U.S. oil export capacity. Once in service, SPOT will be the country’s largest oil export terminal with a capacity of two million barrels per day. The EU Commission is asking member nations to approve a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil. All three major stock indexes are higher on the week while the US Dollar index (DXY) fell to its lowest level in 16 weeks, aiding the oil rally.
OPEC+ to consider deeper oil output cuts ahead of Russia sanctions and proposed price capOPEC and non-OPEC oil producers could impose deeper oil output cuts on Sunday, energy analysts said, as the influential energy alliance weighs the impact of a pending ban on Russia’s crude exports and a possible price cap on Russian oil. OPEC+, a group of 23 oil-producing nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will convene on Sunday to decide on the next phase of production policy. The highly anticipated meeting comes ahead of potentially disruptive sanctions on Russian oil, weakening crude demand in China and mounting fears of a recession. Claudio Galimberti, senior vice president of analysis at energy consultancy Rystad, told CNBC from OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria, that he believes the group “would be better off to stay the course” and roll over existing production policy. “OPEC+ has been rumored to consider a cut on the basis of demand weakness, specifically in China, over the past few days. Yet, China’s traffic nationwide is not down dramatically,” Galimberti said. Energy market participants remain wary about the European Union’s sanctions on the purchases of the Kremlin’s seaborne crude exports on Dec. 5, while the prospect of a G-7 price cap on Russian oil is another source of uncertainty. The 27-nation EU bloc agreed in June to ban the purchase of Russian seaborne crude from Dec. 5 as part of a concerted effort to curtail the Kremlin’s war chest following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Concern that an outright ban on Russian crude imports could send oil prices soaring, however, prompted the G-7 to consider a price cap on the amount it will pay for Russian oil. No formal agreement has yet been reached, although Reuters reported Thursday that EU governments had tentatively agreed to a $60 barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil. “The other factor OPEC will need to consider is indeed the price cap,” Galimberti said. “It’s still up in the air, and this adds to the uncertainty.” The Kremlin has previously warned that any attempt to impose a price cap on Russian oil will cause more harm than good.
OPEC+ agrees to stick to its existing policy of reducing oil production ahead of Russia sanctions -An influential alliance of oil producers on Sunday agreed to stay the course on output policy ahead of a pending ban from the European Union on Russian crude. OPEC and non-OPEC producers, a group of 23 oil-producing nations known as OPEC+, decided to stick to its existing policy of reducing oil production by 2 million barrels per day, or about 2% of world demand, from November until the end of 2023. Energy analysts had expected OPEC+ to consider fresh price-supporting production cuts ahead of a possible double blow to Russia’s oil revenues. The European Union is poised to ban all imports of Russian seaborne crude from Monday, while the U.S. and other members of the G-7 will impose a price cap on the oil Russia sells to countries around the world.. The Kremlin has previously warned that any attempt to impose a price cap on Russian oil will cause more harm than good. Oil prices have fallen to below $90 a barrel from more than $120 in early June ahead of potentially disruptive sanctions on Russian oil, weakening crude demand in China and mounting fears of a recession. Led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC+ agreed in early October to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day from November. It came despite calls from the U.S. for the group to pump more to lower fuel prices and help the global economy.
Oil prices rose as much as 2% on hopes of China's reopening and as OPEC+ maintains output targets - Oil prices climbed as much as 2% on Monday after China signaled a broader relaxation of Covid curbs, OPEC+ announced its decision not to change oil production targets, and a price cap on Russian oil took effect. Both futures rose more than 2% in early Asia hours after OPEC+ agreed to maintain its current policy of reducing oil production by 2 million barrels per day, or around 2% of world demand from November until the end of next year. Both futures have since pared gains, with Brent crude last trading at $86.12 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures at $80.53 per barrel. The Group of Seven’s price cap of $60 for Russian seaborne oil and a ban on Russian crude kicked in on Monday. However, economists at National Bank of Australia say it’s “unclear what impact this will have on Russian exports and how Russia will respond.” The Kremlin had previously threatened that it will not supply oil to countries setting and endorsing the price cap. “It is the right decision [for OPEC] to hold steady, especially if you don’t know how much, if at all, Russian production is going to fall after today,” said Amrita Sen, head of research at energy consultancy Energy Aspects. Another analyst is of the view that the price caps are “irrelevant” and that oil prices were mainly moving on other factors, such as the prospect of China’s reopening. “There won’t be any impact unless Moscow goes ahead with its threat and says ’we’re not going to export at X amount or whatever reason but so far we don’t think that’s going to happen,” Citi’s global head of commodities research, Edward Morse, told CNBC. Oil prices were also buoyed by optimism on China’s reopening, based on reports signaling that the world’s largest importer is easing its Covid curbs. “The markets’ been moving because of optimism about China opening, and concerns about the U.S. dollar because the Fed might be reducing the pace at which it’s raising rates.” In early Asia hours, Brent crude futures rose as much as 2.37% to $87.60 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures traded up over 2.27% at $81.84 a barrel.
Oil Futures Chase Equities Lower on Fear of Fed Rate Hikes-- Reversing an early advance triggered by China's easing of COVID-19 quarantine restrictions, oil futures followed equity markets lower Monday afternoon. That sent both the U.S. and international crude benchmarks 3% lower amid fear the Federal Reserve would continue raising interest rates that will eventually steer the U.S. economy into recession. More evidence of a resilient consumer could be found in November services data released Monday morning by the Institute of Supply Management that showed business activity in the service economy strengthened last month despite efforts by the central bank to drawdown excessive demand. The Business Activity Index registered 64.7% in November, a substantial increase of 9% compared to the October reading, with the headline number for Services PMI clocking in at 56.5%. A reading of 50% separates growth from contraction. The accelerated growth in the service economy was realized on the back of increases in business activity but also employment. The employment index climbed out of contraction territory to 51.5% in November, reflecting consistently strong growth in the labor market. Last month, the U.S. economy added a robust 263,000 new jobs, with notable gains occurring in professional and services industries. What's more surprising, hourly wages for all employees spiked 0.6% from the prior month -- double what economists had expected. These data points are bad news for the Federal Reserve as they suggest the central bank has made little progress so far in cooling off a red-hot labor market along with inflation. Following a Nov. 30 speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, investors largely expect the Federal Open Market Committee to agree on a 0.5% hike in the federal funds rate their Dec. 13-14 meeting. That would mark a step down from a series of four straight 0.75% rate hikes. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, however, warned that the Federal Reserve will probably need to raise interest rates more than markets are currently expecting. Further weighing on the oil complex, Saudi Arabia on Monday morning lowered most of its oil selling prices for Asia, its key market, in a sign that demand remains fragile amid continued zero-COVID policies in China. State-controlled Saudi Aramco cut its key Arab Light grade for January sales to Asia by $2.20 to $3.25 per barrel (bbl) above the regional benchmark. The move was in line with analysts' calls for a drop of $2.10, according to a Bloomberg survey. Saudi Arabia's fellow OPEC member Kuwait on Friday said that oil customers were reluctant to boost imports into early next year. There have been reports suggesting that Chinese refiners are pulling back on January oil purchases amid regulatory uncertainty surrounding lockdowns. Saudi Arabia also reduced most of its prices for European customers, while leaving those for the United States unchanged. At settlement, West Texas Intermediate January contract fell $3.05 to $76.93 per bbl, and February Brent futures on ICE declined by $2.89 to $82.68 per bbl. January RBOB futures on NYMEX dropped to $2.2019 per gallon, down by $0.0785, and the January ULSD contract tumbled $0.1687 to $2.9998 per gallon.
Crude oil prices rise after price cap on Russian crude, OPEC+ meeting; Brent hits $83.34/bbl – Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday after a G7 price cap on Russian seaborne oil came into force on Monday on top of a European Union embargo on imports of Russian crude by sea. Brent crude futures LCOc1 had risen 66 cents to $83.34 a barrel by 0108 GMT. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) CLc1 rose 70 cents to $77.63 a barrel. Futures fell more than 3% in the previous session after U.S. service sector data raised worries that the Federal Reserve could continue its aggressive policy tightening path. The Group of Seven price cap comes as the West tries to limit Moscow's ability to finance its war in Ukraine, but Russia has said it will not abide by the measure even if it has to cut production. The price cap, to be enforced by the G7 nations, the European Union, and Australia, comes on top of the EU's embargo on imports of Russian crude by sea and similar pledges by the United States, Canada, Japan, and Britain. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia together called OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to stick to their October plan to cut output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) beginning in November. The Group of Seven (G7) countries and Australia last week agreed on a $60 a barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil. In China, more cities eased COVID curbs over the weekend, prompting optimism for increased demand in the world's top oil importer. Business and manufacturing activity in China, the world's second-largest economy, have been hit this year by strict measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
Oil price dip towards $74, Omicron concerns dominate -- Oil futures prices dropped toward $73 a barrel on Tuesday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the Omicron coronavirus variant is set to dent global demand recovery. U.S. data showing producer prices at 11-year highs reinforced market expectations of faster stimulus tapering by the Federal Reserve, which meets this week. This supported the dollar and weighed on oil, which typically move inversely. Brent crude futures fell 69 cents, or 0.9%, to $73.70. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled down 56 cents, or 0.8%, at $70.73. The U.S. dollar stayed near one-week highs on Tuesday versus a basket of major currencies, bolstered by the producer prices data. “As some accelerated tapering out of the Fed becomes more likely, US interest rates are apt to lift in pushing additional strength into the dollar in forcing price weakness into the oil,” On Tuesday, the World Health Organization said the Omicron variant was spreading at an “unprecedented” rate, prompting markets to edge lower. “The surge in new COVID-19 cases is expected to temporarily slow, but not upend, the recovery in oil demand that is under way,” the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly oil report. Governments around the world, including most recently Britain and Norway, have tightened restrictions to stop the spread of the Omicron variant. The IEA lowered its forecast for oil demand this year and the next by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) each, mostly because of the expected blow to jet fuel use from new travel curbs. “The skies are darkening for the oversupply outlook again,” The Asian Development Bank on Tuesday trimmed its growth forecasts for developing Asia for this year and next to reflect risks and uncertainty brought on by the variant, which could also hamper oil demand. On Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its world oil demand forecast for the first quarter of 2022 and stuck to its timeline for a return to pre-pandemic levels of oil use, saying the Omicron variant’s impact would be mild and brief. OPEC+, which includes OPEC and other producers including Russia, plan to boost supply every month by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) after sharply cutting output last year. Output in the largest U.S. shale basin is expected to surge to a record in January, according to a forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
WTI Holds Losses Despite Another Huge Crude Draw - Oil prices tumbled further today as growing concern that US interest rates will stay higher for longer has also increased speculation that economic growth will slow and drag down energy demand. Dollar strength also did not help. “A negative US economic data point causes oil to be sold as recessionary fears increase, but a positive data point can also cause oil selling through being good for the US dollar and negative for risk assets,” Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered, said. “There is always interplay between those effects, but in the past three weeks oil has tended to fall after both good and bad economic data.” After last week's huge crude draw, all eyes are back on inventory/supply data for any signals that this drawdown in price is over. API:
- Crude -6.246mm (-3.884mm)
- Cushing +30k - first build in 5 weeks
- Gasoline +5.93mm
- Distillates +3.55mm
WTI reported another major crude draw (bigger than expected) - that is the fourth weekly crude draw in a row. On the other hand, Products saw significant builds for the fourth straight week... WTI hovered just above $74 ahead of the API print, and inched higher on the crude draw... Brent broke down below $80 for the first time since January... Traders are “fleeing the market” because of the “absurd” price actions oil has recently experienced, Ed Morse, global head of commodity research at Citigroup Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We are getting toward the end of the year, and those who made money this year did not want to lose any.” The oil market’s structure has also been in freefall, with one gauge of US trading at its weakest level in two years, pointing to ample near-term supply.
WTI Slides After Huge Product Builds, Crude Production Rise -- After an ugly slide as Europe opened, oil prices have rebounded as China's rollback of some COVID-19 measures boosted the outlook for energy demand and traders are optimistic that the official inventory data this morning matches API's big crude draw. "Traders have been looking for more positive news when it comes to China's zero-tolerance COVID policies," said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, in a market update. And now "we have heard from the officials about a further easing of those measures," providing support to investor sentiment. Oil's swings overnight have left WTI trading right where it was before the API data. DOE:
- Crude -5.186mm (-3.884mm)
- Cushing -373k
- Gasoline +5.319mm (+2.9mm exp) - biggest build since July 2022
- Distillates +5.159mm (+1.9mm exp) - biggest build since May 29, 2020
The official data confirmed API's reporting with a fourth straight week of sizable crude draws and fourth straight week of significant and growing product builds... Gasoline inventories continue to soar amid weak demand heading into the holidays. The four-week moving average of product supplied has plunged by 400,000 barrels a day over the last three weeks. Coupling that with ultra-high refinery utilization has finally given fuelmakers the chance to restock crude product inventories.The four-week rolling average of distillates demand fell to its lowest seasonal level since 2015. US Crude production rose to cycle highs at 12.2mm b/d... WTI was hovering around $74.50 ahead of the official data and slipped lower on the big product builds.. Concerns about the global growth outlook, alongside a soft physical market and falling liquidity have weighed on prices, but Francisco Blanch, head of commodity and derivatives research at Bank of America said in a Bloomberg TV interview that "inventories remain quite low, spare capacity is tight,” “All the demand growth that we forecast for next year is coming from emerging markets.” Traders are “fleeing the market” because of the “absurd” price actions oil has recently experienced, Ed Morse, global head of commodity research at Citigroup Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We are getting toward the end of the year, and those who made money this year did not want to lose any.” The oil market’s structure has also been in freefall, with one gauge of US trading at its weakest level in two years, pointing to ample near-term supply.Finally, we note that gasoline pump prices have largely fallen to parity with where they were a year ago, yet demand has continued to lag.
Oil Erodes to 12-Month Lows After EIA Data Fuels Demand Fears - Oil futures settled lower for the fourth straight session on Wednesday, with both crude benchmarks erasing all their gains made this year. The losses came after the weekly inventory report from the Energy Information Administration showed continued soft demand and growing stocks of refined fuels, feeding into concerns over a weakening economy. More evidence of demand destruction could be found in this week's EIA inventory report, showing four-week average distillate consumption in the U.S. dropped a full 9% below last year's level to 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd). Distillate fuel supplied to the U.S. market -- a measure of demand -- remained firmly below 4 million bpd for the fourth straight week through Dec. 2. It must be noted that distillate demand correlates closely with economic activity, particularly in energy-intensive industries. Although the service sector of the U.S. economy regained momentum in November, manufacturing activity posted its first contraction since May 2020, led by a sharp decline in new orders and production capacities. Further details of the EIA's report show demand for motor gasoline stalled for the third consecutive week at 5% below last year's level at 8.3 million bpd despite the beginning of the holiday season. As a result, stocks of gasoline and distillate fuels rose by a massive 11.5 million barrels (bbl) during the week ended Dec. 2, with a 6.2-million-bbl build realized in distillate stocks alone. Supporting elements of the report could be found in crude statistics, with commercial inventories having tumbled 5.3 million bbl in the week ended Dec. 2 to 413.9 million bbl. This marked the fourth consecutive weekly drawdown from commercial oil inventories. Since mid-November, commercial crude inventories have declined by a hefty 26.9 million bbl amid gradual slowdown of a yearlong program of oil sales from Strategic Petroleum Reserves, while refiners reduce stock levels ahead of ad valorem taxes on inventory held at year's end in Texas and Louisiana. The large crude draw was realized as the national refinery run rate increased 0.3% to 95.5% of capacity, the highest utilization rate since August 2019. Crude inputs at refineries increased 53,000 bpd to 16.6 million bpd, a nearly five-month high. Domestic oil production, meanwhile, increased by 100,000 bpd from the previous week to 12.2 million bpd, according to EIA figures. January West Texas Intermediate futures declined $2.24 to $72.01 per bbl -- the lowest settlement on the spot continuous chart since Dec. 21, 2021. February Brent futures on ICE fell $2.18 to settle at $77.17 per bbl -- a 2022 low on a spot continuous basis. January RBOB futures slid to a $2.0772-per-gallon 11 1/2-month low on the spot continuation chart, down $0.0719, and the January ULSD contract declined $0.1350 to an 11-month low $2.7805 per gallon.
Oil Rebounds As China Eases Strict COVID Curbs - Oil rebounded from 2022 lows on Thursday, as China began implementing a more relaxed version of its strict "zero COVID" policy and reports emerged that some tankers carrying Russian oil are facing delays in crossing to the Mediterranean from Russia's Black Sea ports after a G7 price cap came into effect. Benchmark Brent crude futures rose 0.7 percent to $77.71 a barrel, while WTI crude futures were up 1.1 percent at $72.81. Both contracts hit 2022 lows on Wednesday, giving up all of the gains since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, after data from Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a sharp increase in gasoline inventories in the week ended December 2nd. Recession worries also hurt markets after top U.S. banks warned of a recession in 2023 and China reported weak trade balance figures for November. Three years into the pandemic and following widespread protests last month, many Chinese embraced newfound freedoms today after the country dropped key parts of its tough zero-COVID regime.
Oil Falls on Weakening Demand, Shrugs off Keystone Closure (Reuters) - Oil settled lower for a fifth straight session on Thursday as traders shrugged off the closure of a major Canada-to-U.S. crude pipeline, focusing instead on concerns that global economic slowdowns would slash fuel demand. Brent crude settled at $76.15 a barrel, losing $1.02, or 1.3%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $71.46 a barrel, shedding 55 cents, or 0.8%. Canada's TC Energy said it shut its 622,000 barrel-per-day Keystone pipeline, which is the primary line shipping heavy Canadian crude from Alberta to the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast, after a spill into a Kansas creek. The line has had several spills since it began operating in 2010. Oil prices rose after the company announced the closure, but the rally dissipated as analysts noted that the U.S. Gulf is likely to have enough inventory to handle short-term outages. Several analysts also said the section of the line that goes to Midwest refiners could be restarted soon. TC Energy has not announced when the pipeline would reopen. "I would tend to think that, any minute here, you're going to see a headline hit the tape that's going to say that Keystone is going to be back sooner rather than later," . The energy markets are weighed down by fears of an economic slowdown, weakening fuel demand amid the prospect of more U.S. interest rate hikes, with the Federal Reserve widely expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points next week. While U.S. crude inventories fell last week, gasoline and distillate inventories surged, adding to concern about easing demand. Limiting losses was an announcement by China on Wednesday detailing the most sweeping changes to its strict anti-COVID regime since the pandemic began, while at least 20 oil tankers faced delays in crossing to the Mediterranean from Russia's Black Sea ports. The 14-day relative strength index for Brent was below 30 on Thursday according to Eikon data, a level taken by technical analysts as indicating an asset is oversold and could be poised for a rebound. Both Brent and U.S. crude hit 2022 lows on Wednesday, unwinding all the gains made after Russia's invasion of Ukraine exacerbated the worst global energy supply crisis in decades and sent oil close to its all-time high of $147. Western officials were in talks with Turkish counterparts to resolve the tanker queues, a British Treasury official said on Wednesday, after the G7 and European Union rolled out new restrictions aimed at Russian oil exports.
Oil bounces on pipeline shutdown but heads for weekly loss on demand woes -- Oil prices bounced higher on Friday as closure of a major Canada-to-U.S. crude pipeline disrupted supplies, but both benchmarks were headed for a weekly loss on worries over slowing global demand growth. Brent crude futures were at $76.73 a barrel, up 58 cents, or 0.76%, at 0716 GMT, after dropping 1.3% on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 52 cents, or 0.73%, to $71.98 a barrel, having settled 0.8% lower in the previous session. News of an accident closing Canada's TC Energy's Keystone pipeline in the United States prompted a brief rally on Thursday, but prices finally eased as the market took a view that the closure would be brief. More than 14,000 barrels of crude oil spilled into a creek in Kansas, making it one of the largest crude spills in the United States in nearly a decade. Previous spill-induced outages are typically rectified in about two weeks, RBC Capital analyst Robert Kwan said, although the latest outage may prove longer given that it involves a spill into a creek. Oil prices are set to post their biggest weekly drop in months, since traders expect it will be some time before China easing its COVID controls feeds through to demand. And surging infections will likely depress China's economic growth in the next few months, bringing a rebound only later in 2023, economists said. "The market lacks conviction in calling a bottom to crude despite the strong losing streak of the past several sessions," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights. Thursday's price slump despite two major crude supply disruptions is a bit bewildering, she said. "It is likely exacerbated by thinning trading activity, wherein the few remaining actors are playing it safe by continuing to sell and steering clear of the long side." Also on the downside, the U.S. economy is heading into a short and shallow recession over the coming year, according to economists polled by Reuters who unanimously expected the U.S. Federal Reserve to go for a smaller 50 basis point interest rate hike on Dec. 14. The European Central Bank will also likely lift its deposit rate by 50 basis points next week to 2.00%, another Reuters poll found, despite the euro zone economy almost certainly being in recession, as it battles inflation running at five times its target.
Oil drops in volatile trade, records biggest weekly slump in months - Oil price settled lower in volatile trading on Friday, with both benchmarks recording their biggest weekly declines in months, as growing recession fears negated any supply woes after weak economic data from China, Europe and the United States. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 44 cents lower at $71.02 a barrel, a new low for 2022. Brent crude settled 5 cents lower at $76.10 per barrel. “Any concerns about supply are secondary to worries about the economy,” Oil prices had found some support and risen more than 1% earlier in the session after Russian President Vladimir Putin said the world’s biggest energy exporter could cut output in response to a price cap on its crude oil exports. However, a slightly higher-than-expected rise in U.S. producer prices in November, and news of a partial restart on the Keystone Pipeline undid those gains and pushed the benchmarks more than a dollar lower. Keystone shut earlier this week after a 14,000 barrel oil leak in Kansas. The U.S. producer prices index (PPI) rose slightly more than expected in November amid a jump in the costs of services, according to a report from the U.S. Labor Department. The increase may make it more likely that the Federal Reserve will “step on the accelerator” on interest rate hikes, furthering fears of a looming recession, Yawger said. Both crude benchmarks posted weekly losses of around 10% each. It was the biggest weekly decline since April for the U.S. WTI futures, and since early August for Brent. Both Yawger and Walter Zimmerman warned that if U.S. crude falls below $70 per barrel, it could enter a freefall and hit the low $60s range over the upcoming sessions. The market structure for WTI contracts switched to trade in contango over the next year for the first time since Nov. 2020, with contracts for near-term delivery cheaper than one year later . Brent contracts have also switched to trade in contango over the next six months. A market in contango suggests less worry about the current supply situation due to weakened demand, and encourages traders to put barrels in storage. In China, surging COVID-19 infections will likely depress economic growth in the next few months despite some restrictions being eased, economists said. Economists polled by Reuters forecast the U.S. economy will hit a short and shallow recession in the coming year. Forecasters expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates by 50 basis points (bps) on Dec. 14. The European Central Bank will also likely lift its deposit rate by 50 bps next week to 2%, even as the euro zone economy is believed to already be in recession.
Oil has worst week since March amid what Putin calls 'stupid' price cap -- Vladimir Putin showed his irritation on Friday with the West’s price cap on Russia’s oil, calling it “a stupid proposal” among other things. The market seemed to think otherwise though. After a brief and slight pop on the Russian president’s comments, crude prices settled down for a sixth day straight day in a week where the front-month contracts swung as much as $4 a barrel a day on supply uncertainties spawned by the price cap and on recession fears in the United States and Europe. “The short-term crude demand outlook has deteriorated significantly as no one has a strong handle on how bad a recession will hit the U.S. economy,” WTI, or New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery settled down 44 cents, 0.6%, at $71.02 per barrel. The U.S. crude benchmark ended the week down $9.28, or 11.6%, making it its worst week since the week ended March 25. WTI’s session low was $70.11 — a bottom not seen since Dec 21, 2021 and practically a dime above the key $70 support. London-traded Brent crude for February delivery settled down 5 cents, or 0.07%, at $76.10. For the week, the global crude benchmark down more than $9.47, or 11.%. Brent’s intraday low was $75.14 — a trough not seen since Dec 23, 2021 and less than cents above the key $75 support. As of Friday, WTI was down 4.8% for all of 2022. In comparison, the U.S. crude benchmark was up 73% in March when it traded just shy of $130 a barrel. Brent was off 1.4% on the year, after being up 80% in March when it rose to just short of $140 a barrel. The oil trade, meanwhile, was bracing for more volatility in 2023 as the West’s price cap on Russian oil and headwinds to global growth offset potential demand surges and supply crunches. The past two sessions were a perfect example of the price swings that could come ahead in oil. In Thursday’s business, crude initially rallied on reports of a tanker pile-up in Turkish waters, with authorities there apparently checking one vessel after another for oil of Russian origin. The U.S. Treasury then issued a statement, saying there was no need for Turkish authorities to do checks beyond the declaration made by shippers. It also said the government in Ankara was working quickly to resolve the issue and that Turkey shared U.S. interests in maintaining a well-supplied oil market. Crude prices fell after that as it became clear that there were no supply snafus due to the price cap. Thursday’s swings in oil were exacerbated by the closure of the gigantic 622,000 barrel-per-day Keystone pipeline after an oil spill. The pipeline carries heavy Canadian crude from Alberta to the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast. Its shutdown in principle put a hefty amount of crude back into the market at the same time that global economic slowdowns raised fuel demand fears. Sentiment remained bogged down in Friday’s session by worries that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank could resort to longer rate hikes through 2023 despite both signaling lately that their aggressive monetary tightening in recent months could be headed for a pivot. Friday’s U.S. Producer Price Index data for November grew at a faster-than-expected rate, disappointing policy-makers counting on weaker price pressures that would allow them to ease up on monetary tightening that could hurt growth. On the price cap front, Putin said Russia might retaliate with production cuts, although it would have to discuss that first with its allies in the OPEC+ global oil producers led by Saudi Arabia. "We are thinking about this, there are no solutions yet,” the Russian president said, referring to the price cap and Moscow’s likely response, that could include production cuts. He added that “concrete steps” will be outlined in a presidential decree “that will be released in the next few days”. Since Monday, the Group of Seven, or G7 club of rich nations, along with the European Union and other allies have imposed a $60 selling price limit on Russian oil. The move has had traders scratching their heads to figure out a landing price for Urals — the reference for Russian oil, which is one of the world’s more important benchmarks for crude other than the Dubai Light and the ubiquitous WTI and Brent. In theory, the price cap shouldn’t matter much as it does now as Urals on their own were quoted at around $60 per barrel just before the limit announced by the West. In practice though, the cap matters a lot — to Putin at least. "This will lead to the collapse of the industry itself, because the consumer will always insist that the price be lower,” Putin said. “The industry is already under-invested, under-funded, and if we listen only to consumers, then this investment will be reduced to zero.” "All this will lead at some stage to a catastrophic surge in prices and to the collapse of the global energy sector. This is a stupid proposal, ill-conceived and poorly thought-out." Putin doubled down on Friday on his Ukraine mission, dismissing Western attempts to squeeze Russia’s oil earnings via the price cap in order to slow down its war machinery. Putin alluded to the $60-per-barrel limit set by the West as proof that Russia’s finances won’t be hurt, saying that it corresponded with the level that Russia was currently selling its oil at.
Speculative Oil Positioning Now as Bearish as In Early Weeks of Pandemic - Speculative positioning in oil is currently as bearish as during the early weeks of the pandemic, according to Standard Chartered. “Speculative positioning in crude oil has been unremarkable through most of 2022, but this has changed in recent weeks,” analysts at the company stated in a new report sent to Rigzone. “Our crude oil money-manager positioning index compares net longs across the four main New York and London-based crude contracts relative to open interest and historical norms; this index is currently more negative than those for all other commodities in our sample,” the analysts added. “The crude oil index stands at -70.3, the lowest since mid-April 2020, about a week before WTI prices settled at a negative price. The index has fallen by 57.4 over the past three weeks; this is the largest three-week fall since February 2020, just before the temporary collapse of the OPEC+ agreement,” the analysts continued. In the report, the analysts noted that oil market fundamentals are far more supportive than they were in early 2020, highlighting that demand is not collapsing due to a pandemic and producers are not engaged in a price war. “However, oil has tended to be caught in the backwash from top-down macro trades,” the analysts said. “A negative U.S. economic data point causes oil to be sold as recessionary fears increase, but a positive data point can also cause oil selling through being USD-positive and negative for risk assets. There is always interplay between those effects, but in the past three weeks oil has tended to fall after both good and bad economic data,” the analysts stated. “Sentiment had been buoyed by hopes of China reopening, but as timescales dragged many traders preferred to make that trade in metals markets instead. We think many of the new shorts are relatively weak and will soon be covered, helping to shore up oil’s downside; however, in the short term the market is likely to accentuate the negative,” the analysts continued. At the time of writing, the price of Brent is trading at $78.11 per barrel, while the price of WTI is trading at $73.49 per barrel. Both commodities have seen a notable drop since early November, when Brent closed above $98 per barrel and WTI closed near $92 per barrel. The first cases of novel coronavirus were first detected in China in December 2019, with the virus spreading rapidly to other countries across the world, WHO notes on its website, adding that this led the organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on January 30, 2020, and to characterize the outbreak as a pandemic on March 11, 2020. As of December 7, 5.28pm CET, there have been 642.37 million cases of Covid-19, with 6.62 million deaths, according to the latest figures from WHO. As of December 5, a total of 12.99 billion vaccine doses have been administered, WHO shows on its site. China’s weekly Covid-19 case numbers increased in the week commencing November 28 after seven consecutive weeks of declines, according to WHO, which showed that there were 146,141 confirmed cases last week. The weekly Covid-19 case peak for China was seen in the week commencing May 23, at 576,367 cases, WHO outlines on its site.
China's Xi on 'epoch-making' visit to Saudi as Riyadh chafes at U.S. censure (Reuters) - Chinese President Xi Jinping began a visit to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday that Beijing said marked its biggest diplomatic initiative in the Arab world, as Riyadh expands global alliances beyond a long-standing partnership with the West.The meeting between the global economic powerhouse and Gulf energy giant comes as Saudi ties with Washington are strained by U.S. criticism of Riyadh's human rights record and Saudi support for oil output curbs before the November midterm elections. The White House said Xi's visit was an example of Chinese attempts to exert influence, and that this would not change U.S. policy towards the Middle East. "We are mindful of the influence that China is trying to grow around the world," White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters. China, the world's biggest energy consumer, is a major trade partner of Gulf oil and gas producers. Bilateral ties have expanded under the region's economic diversification push, raising U.S. concerns about growing Chinese involvement in sensitive infrastructure in the Gulf. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on Wednesday said that Riyadh would remain a "trusted and reliable" energy partner for Beijing and that the two countries would boost cooperation in energy supply chains by establishing a regional centre in the kingdom for Chinese factories.Saudi Arabia is China's top oil supplier and Xi's visit takes place while uncertainty hangs over energy markets after Western powers imposed a price cap on sales of oil from Russia, which has been increasing volumes to China with discounted oil.
Russia trying to obtain ‘hundreds of ballistic missiles’ from Iran: UK intelligence - Russia is trying to obtain “hundreds of ballistic missiles” from Iran as the military ties between the two countries deepen and the war in Ukraine continues, according to British intelligence. The United Kingdom’s Defense Ministry tweeted on Saturday that Iran has become one of Russia’s top military backers since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February and Iran’s support of the Russian military is likely to grow in the coming months. “In return Russia is highly likely offering Iran an unprecedented level of military and technical support that is transforming their defence relationship,” the ministry said. It said Russia has likely used up a large proportion of its stock of SS-26 Iskander short-range ballistic missiles, which can carry a 500-kilogram warhead up to 500 kilometers. The ministry believes that if Russia successfully obtains a large number of Iranian ballistic missiles, they will be used to expand its strikes against Ukraine’s national infrastructure. The report comes after the White House warned on Friday that Russia and Iran are preparing for joint weapons production. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that the United States does not know how Iran is weighing whether to participate, but Russia aspires to work on a joint production line with Iran. British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said in a statement on Friday that the UK will continue to expose this “desperate alliance” and hold both countries accountable.
Russia launches ‘massive strike’ across Ukraine -Al Jazeera -- Ukraine accused Russia of destroying homes in the southeast and knocking out power in many areas with a new volley of missiles on Monday, while Moscow said Ukrainian drones had attacked two air bases deep inside Russia hundreds of kilometres from the front lines.A new missile barrage had been anticipated in Ukraine for days, and it took place just as emergency blackouts were due to end, with previous damage repaired. The strikes plunged parts of Ukraine back into freezing darkness with temperatures now firmly below zero Celsius (32 Fahrenheit).At least four people were killed in the Russian attacks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, adding that most of some 70 missiles were shot down. Energy workers had already begun work on restoring power supplies, he said.Russia’s defence ministry said Ukrainian drones attacked two air bases at Ryazan and Saratov in south-central Russia, killing three servicemen and wounding four, with two aircraft damaged by fragments of the drones when they were shot down.Ukraine did not directly claim responsibility for the attacks. If it was behind them, they would be the deepest attacks inside the Russian heartland since Moscow invaded Ukraine on February 24.One of the targets, the Engels airbase near the city of Saratov, approximately 730km (450 miles) southeast of Moscow, houses bomber planes belonging to Russia’s strategic nuclear forces.“The Kyiv regime, in order to disable Russian long-range aircraft, made attempts to strike with Soviet-made unmanned jet aerial vehicles at the military airfields Dyagilevo, in the Ryazan region, and Engels, in the Saratov region,” the Russian defence ministry said.
Ukraine Drones Target Military Bases Deep in Russia, Showing Expanded Reach - — Ukraine executed its most brazen attack into Russian territory in the nine-month-old war on Monday, targeting two military bases hundreds of miles inside the country using drones, according to the Russian defense ministry and a senior Ukrainian official.The drones were launched from Ukrainian territory, and at least one of the strikes was made with the help of special forces close to the base who helped guide the drones to the target, said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity to convey sensitive information.The strikes signaled a new willingness by Kyiv to take the fight to bases in the heart of Russia, raising the stakes in the war, and demonstrated an improved ability to attack at a distance. Shortly after the attacks on the bases, Russia sent a barrage of missiles streaking toward Ukrainian cities.The Kremlin said that the weapons launched by Ukraine were Soviet-era jet drones and were aimed at bases in Ryazan and Engels, about 300 miles from the Ukrainian border. It said that its forces had intercepted the drones, and that “the fall and explosion of the wreckage” had “slightly damaged” two planes, killing three servicemen and wounding four others. The Engels airfield, on the Volga River in southern Russia, is a base for some of Russia’s long-range, nuclear-capable bombers, including the Tupolev-160 and Tupolev-95. Ukrainian officials say it is also a staging ground for Russia’s unrelenting campaign of missile attacks on infrastructure, which have left millions of Ukrainians with intermittent light, heat or water — or none at all — at the onset of winter. Security footage from an apartment complex near the base showed a fireball lighting up the sky.
Russian President Vladimir Putin denies Western accusations of nuclear sabre-rattling - - Russian President Vladimir Putin has described his country's nuclear arsenal as a "factor of deterrence" during the war in Ukraine but refused to rule out striking first with such weapons. Mr Putin said Russian nuclear weapons would be a deterrent, rather than a factor in "provoking an escalation of the conflict" Asked by a member of the presidential Human Rights Council to commit Russia to forswearing a first strike, Mr Putin said such an obligation might prevent Russia from using its nuclear arsenal even if it came under a nuclear attack. "If it doesn't use it first under any circumstances, it means that it won't be the second to use it either because the possibility of using it in case of a nuclear strike on our territory will be sharply limited," Mr Putin said. He said Russia's nuclear doctrine was based on the so-called "launch on warning" concept, which envisaged the country employing nuclear weapons in the face of an imminent nuclear attack. "It means that if we come under strike, we strike back in response," he said. Russia's nuclear doctrine states the country can use nuclear weapons if it comes under a nuclear strike or if it faces an attack with conventional weapons that threatens "the very existence" of the Russian state. Mr Putin, who has repeatedly said during the fighting in Ukraine that Russia is ready to use "all available means" to protect its territory, rejected Western criticism of nuclear sabre-rattling.He pointed at former British Prime Minister Liz Truss's statement about her readiness to use nuclear weapons, saying he felt obliged to respond to that. "I had to emphasise certain things in response," Mr Putin said. "Her comments went largely unnoticed, but they immediately emphasised our statements and used them to scare the world."
Normalizing Nazis at Vogue, MSNBC, and “America’s Largest Documentary Festival” (but not Catalonia) --- by Lambert Strether - Dmytro Kozatsky was the press officer of Ukraine’s Azov Battalion, which makes him a fascist (Colonel Douglas MacGregor: “[T]hese so-called Azov Nazis and their supporters are not only murdering Russians, they’re murdering their own people, and as we saw recently, they actually set out to kill Polish troops that were serving in Ukrainian uniform in Ukraine.” For more on the Azovs, see Appendix A. For more on Kozatsky, see Appendix B).[1] Kozatsky is also a photographer. His most recent project was photographing from inside the Azovstal iron and steel works at Mariupol, with the Azovs, until his capture by Russian forces and ultimate release in a prisoner exchange. He is now touring the United States, apparently to support a movie in which he stars (as himself), and his Azovstal photobook. The main purpose of this post is to show a Nazi insinuating himself — and rather easily — into the upper reaches of our culture industry (fashion, film, books) through such examples as I can glean from Google in its currrent state. The culture industry being primarily PMC and Democrat, the same people defending and applauding Kozatsky are also the ones with “In This House” signs on their lawns, who decry “hate” wherever they feel they encounter it. It’s a funny old world. But let’s look first at Kozatsky’s war.
Campaign for December 10 rally to build international anti-war movement reaches students across Canada -- On Saturday, December 10, at 1 p.m. eastern time, the International Youth and Students for Social Equality (IYSSE) and the World Socialist Web Site are hosting a webinar to discuss the building of a global anti-war movement to stop the US-NATO war against Russia in Ukraine. Members of the Socialist Equality Party (Canada) have campaigned among students and workers across the country to build support for the event over recent weeks.Canadian imperialism is playing a major role in the US-led war, which is aimed at subordinating Russia to the status of a semi-colony, plundering its rich natural resources, and extending the control of the Western imperialist powers over the Eurasian landmass. The federal Liberal government recently announced another $500 million in military aid to Ukraine, which comes on top of $630 million pledged by Ottawa since the beginning of the conflict.The claim that the war began on February 24 with an act of “Russian aggression” against Ukraine is a lie. In reality, the war was provoked by decades of eastward expansion by NATO up to the borders of Russia following the Stalinist dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. The United States, Britain, Canada, and the major European powers disregarded Russia’s security concerns and instead sought to goad the Putin regime into launching a war. Based on the reactionary oligarchy that emerged from the restoration of capitalism, Putin’s regime offers no alternative to imperialism, as shown by its invasion of Ukraine.In 2014, Ottawa backed the fascist-led coup in Kiev that installed a pro-Western puppet regime, and was instrumental in the restructuring of the Ukrainian armed forces over the following years in preparation for war. This included the integration into the Ukrainian armed forces of fascist militias working in the tradition of the Nazi collaborationist Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, which the Canadian state helped rehabilitate after World War II.SEP members discussed these questions with students and advanced the perspective of a global anti-war movement led by the working class at interventions in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia. They explained that the only way to put a stop to imperialist war is through a struggle to end the capitalist profit system that gives rise to it. Reflecting the unanimous support within the political establishment for the war, including among pseudo-left groups who claim to be socialist, many students who eagerly took leaflets from campaigners stated that it was the first time they had come across opposition to the conflict.
Apple explores moving some iPad production to India, sources say - India is exploring options to bring some of Apple’s iPad production to the country from China, according to two sources close to the Indian government. The tech giant is said to be holding ongoing discussions with officials. No concrete plans have been made, but if the effort is successful, it would expand Apple’s footprint in the country. Apple announced earlier this year it had begun assembling its flagship iPhone 14 in southern India. The tech giant has been producing the older models of the iPhone in the country for a few years. The tech giant’s ambitions to diversify more of its supply chain away from China follows protests across the country over the past two weeks amid Beijing’s strict zero-Covid policy. Apple warned in early November that iPhone shipments would be delayed due to the lockdowns in China, and analysts have been trimming iPhone estimates for the crucial holiday quarter. The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that Apple is actively looking to shift production out of China to other countries in Asia, including India and Vietnam. However, sources caution that a lack of highly skilled talent and individuals with expertise in building highly complex devices like the iPad could slow down these plans in India. The foreign policy backdrop also doesn’t help, with tensions growing between India and China. The two countries have squared off in recent years over territorial disputes resulting in escalated military presence at the India-China border.
The Central Bank of Nigeria Just Gave a Whole New Meaning to the Term “Financial Repression” -- To try to salvage its floundering central bank digital currency (CBDC), the eNaira, Nigeria’s Central Bank just launched an all-out assault on physical cash. In October this year, the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Godwin Emefiele, unveiled a plan to redesign and reissue high-value currency notes. It is ostensibly intended to mop up excess cash liquidity, stay ahead of counterfeiters and take greater control of Nigeria’s money in circulation, more than 85% of which is currently outside the vaults of the country’s banking system. The central bank will begin issuing redesigned high value notes from mid-December and has given residents until the end of January to turn in their old notes. This week, a CBN circular titled “Naira Redesign Policy – Revised Cash Withdrawal” has offered more information about the demonetisation process. And it is, to put it mildly, troubling. From Bloomberg: Nigeria’s central bank slashed the daily withdrawal limit from automatic teller machines in a bid to boost digital payments in Africa’s most-populous nation. The Central Bank of Nigeria capped the maximum customer withdrawal at 20,000 naira ($44.97) a day, down from the previous limit of 150,000 naira, according to a circular sent to lenders on Tuesday. Weekly cash withdrawals from banks are restricted to 100,000 naira for individuals and 500,000 naira for corporations, and any amount above that limit will attract a fee of 5% and 10%, respectively, the central bank said. The ultimate goal of these desperate measures is to breathe life into Nigeria’s floundering central bank digital currency, the eNaira. As readers may recall, Nigeria was the first largish country in the world to launch a CBDC, which it did with the advice and assistance of the IMF. The roll out of the eNaira, in October 2021, put the West African country in the “global spotlight”, attracting the interest of “global stakeholders” such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, other central banks [which are working on their own CBDCs] and “the CBDC community,” the CBN noted in October this year. But so far, the eNaira has been a complete dud, as I reported in July and November. The numbers speak for themselves. The eNaira recorded just 700,000 transactions worth ₦8 billion ($18 million) in its first year. By August only 905,588 people had downloaded an eNaira wallet — a thoroughly underwhelming number in a country with an estimated population of 225 million people. Worse still, only 282,600 of those accounts, representing just over 0.1% of the population, were currently active. Meanwhile interest in cryptocurrencies has continued to rise despite a government ban barring financial institutions from enabling transactions in cryptocurrencies. As of January 9, Nigerians will face an 87% reduction in the amount of cash they can withdraw from the bank on a daily basis before having to pay usurious fees. The central bank will also ban the cashing of checks above 50,000 naira over-the-counter and set a limit of 10 million naira on checks cleared through the banking system. Cash withdrawals from point-of-sale terminals, which are frequently used by Nigerians who don’t have a bank account, will be capped at 20,000 naira daily.
OECD forecasts worsening global economic outlook - The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a grouping of 33 major economies, has forecast a worsening outlook for the global economy in a report issued last month. But despite slowing growth and cuts in real living standards, the organisation insists the tightening monetary policies of central banks, aimed at suppressing wage demands by dampening the economy, or even inducing a recession, must continue. [Photo: OECD] The focus of the report was on the energy crisis, which it blamed on Russian “aggression,” completely ignoring the fact that the Ukraine war is being driven by the US and its NATO allies as they seek to dismember Russia and accelerate war preparations against China. In its editorial introducing the report, the OECD said inflation was on the rise because of the COVID-19 pandemic. It had much more prevalent following the Russian invasion, such that because of the surge in prices “real wages are falling in many countries, slashing purchasing power.” It stated that “fighting inflation,” the code phrase used by all capitalist economic institutions for further cuts in real wages, “has to be our top priority right now.” The OECD claimed the policy was enjoying “some progress” as there was an easing of price rises in the US, while insisting that “monetary policy should continue to tighten in the countries where inflation remains high and broad-based.” Furthermore, it wants a two-pronged attack. It was essential that government fiscal policy worked “hand-in-hand with monetary policy.” If fiscal policy added to inflationary pressures, the editorial said, it would lead to even higher interest rates. Accordingly, that meant “policy support to shield families and firms from the energy shock should be targeted and temporary… without adding to inflationary pressures and increasing public debt burdens.” But overall, nothing substantial should be done since “energy prices are likely to remain high and volatile for some time” and “untargeted measures to keep prices down will become increasingly unaffordable, and could discourage the needed energy savings.” There is a clear parallel here with the response to COVID. While some limited mitigation measures were put in place, they were abandoned in the face of the “let it rip” agenda. On energy prices, the policy is the same—limited “targeted” measures to try to assuage popular anger while pursuing a “let it rip” policy on price hikes and the profit gouging by the major energy corporations and the commodity speculators.
The Bordeaux region, in crisis, calls for help to pull out vines France 24 (video) The French wine region of Bordeaux is in crisis, as winegrowers are asking for financial compensation to destroy their vines and change what's a long-standing growth culture. Nationwide strikes are scheduled to begin on Friday. FRANCE 24's Vedika Bahl and Kevin Baptista tell us more.
Santander hit by U.K. fine for lax money-laundering controls - Santander UK was fined £108 million ($132 million) by the U.K. financial watchdog over repeated anti-money-laundering failures that included a series of missteps over its monitoring of hundreds of millions of pounds of suspicious funds. The bank had "serious and persistent gaps" in its oversight of business customers over a five-year period through 2017 and failed to shut down an account channeling funds that was being monitored by law enforcement, the Financial Conduct Authority said in a statement on Friday. Santander fully cooperated with the FCA probe and accepted the watchdog's findings in exchange for a 30% discount in the penalty.
UK risks sleepwalking into food supply crisis, says farmers’ union --Britain’s farmers are warning the government risks “sleepwalking” into a food supply crisis unless it urgently provides support to those struggling with the soaring cost of the “three f’s”: fuel, feed and fertiliser.The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) has said the shortages of eggs could spread to other food products, as UK fruit and vegetable growers and meat and dairy producers come under pressure from soaring costs for energy and animal feed, combined with the challenge of finding enough staff.Energy-intensive crops including tomatoes, cucumbers and pears are on track for their lowest yields since records began in 1985, the NFU said, as producers leave agriculture in the face of rising costs.“Huge issues for pigs, for poultry meat, for eggs, for fresh produce,” NFU’s president, Minette Batters, told journalists, warning that more reliance on food imports could further push up price inflation.She said the domestic horticultural sector is “contracting”, while milk prices are expected to fall below the cost of production, and beef farmers are deciding whether to reduce their herds.Farmers have faced rising costs since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the NFU said, as fertiliser prices have tripled since 2019, on top of a six-fold increase in wholesale gas prices. The NFU said the UK had lost about 7,000 agricultural businesses since 2019.Batters called for more fairness and transparency in the food supply chain to help farmers: “It is about cost of production, and it is about sharing that cost equally through the supply chain. At the moment you have got all of the cost, all of the risk sitting on the primary producer.”The NFU said £60m of food was wasted on farms this year as a result of labour shortages, with ripe fruit and vegetables left to rot, and it is calling on the government to allow 15,000 additional seasonal workers to come from abroad to help pick crops.Currently, 40,000 six-month visas are available each year, the vast majority for horticulture. Of those permits, 2,000 are intended for staffing the poultry sector during the pre-Christmas rush.“In the current circumstances many [growers] will sadly go bust and exit the industry,”
Many UK schools structurally unsound, posing danger to life - Schools and other public buildings in the UK could be in danger of collapse because they have not been subject to regular safety inspections or properly maintained. This “risk to life” emerges in the context of a devastating funding crisis in education, threatening staff redundancies, larger class sizes, restrictions to the curriculum and the elimination of support services. Governments have ignored warnings about the risks to schools since at least 2018. Neither have the education unions acted to ensure the safety of their members and children in their care. The Office of Government Property (OGP), responsible for public buildings, issued a “Safety Briefing Notice” in September regarding the potential dangers of Reinforced Autoclaved Aerated Concrete (RAAC). It made the stark warning that “RAAC is now life-expired and liable to collapse”. RAAC is a foam concrete material used in internal and external construction. Invented in Sweden in the mid-1920, it has been used globally for 70 years—increasingly so since 1980 due to its many ostensible advantages. These include thermal efficiency, fire resistance, and the fact that it is lightweight making for speedier construction and cost efficiency. The roof of Singlewell Primary school in Gravesend partially collapsed in 2018—luckily at the weekend with no casualties. Most concerning, the roof only showed signs of stress 24 hours before the incident. The Standing Committee on Structural Safety responded to this potential tragedy with a safety alert on the “failure of RAAC planks,” recommending that those installed before 1980 should be replaced. This committee, an independent body established in 1976, is supported by the Institution of Civil Engineers, the Institution of Structural Engineers, and the government’s Health and Safety Executive to review building and civil engineering matters regarding the safety of structures. Four years on, inspections and remedial work to ensure school buildings are safe from collapse have only just begun. This is despite other serious incidents, including:
- In February 2017, when a wall collapsed at Oxgangs Primary School, Edinburgh.
- On May 10, 2018, a teacher and three pupils, aged between six and seven, suffered minor injuries after part of the ceiling fell in a Year 2 classroom at Nechells Primary School, Birmingham.
- In October 2019, part of the roof and brickwork collapsed at St Anne’s Catholic Primary School in Sutton, St Helens.
- Sandhurst secondary school in Berkshire suffered a partial roof collapse over a walkway on November 15, 2020.
- In September 2021, Ford Primary School run by the Horizon Multi Academy Trust in Plymouth suffered a partial collapse of the school hall roof.
- A ceiling collapsed at a second floor Year 3 classroom at Rosemead Preparatory School & Nursery in Dulwich on November 15, 2021. No one sustained serious injury, but one child was detained in hospital under observation.
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