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Saturday, December 24, 2022

week ending Dec 24

Corporate America isn't afraid of the Fed's monster rate hikes — The Federal Reserve’s super-sized interest rates are not scaring most companies into cutting back on spending, according to a survey released on Wednesday.About two-thirds of chief financial officers say the current level of interest rates have not impacted their spending plans, according to the CFO Survey conducted by Duke University and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta.That’s despite the Fed raising interest rates at the fastest pace in decades to cool inflation. Rates have surged to 15-year highs, raising the cost of capital for businesses and consumers alike.Only about 30% of CFOs say rates have already dampened spending plans, according to the survey.When asked why the current level of rates was not hurting capital investment, many CFOs said they are not borrowing to finance investment plans or that their plans are not rate sensitive.The Fed has signaled it will likely keep raising interest rates next year, with benchmark rates likely to top 5%.On average, CFOs in the survey indicated they would pull back on spending if the fed funds rate hit 6.4% – a level well above what investors and Fed officials are penciling in for next year.The survey found that inflation remains the top worry of CFOs, followed by the worker shortage and rising interest rates from the Fed.Overall, CFOs are relatively downbeat on the outlook for next year.CFO optimism in the US economy was unchanged at 53 on a scale of 0 to 100, compared with the historic average of around 60.CFOs in the survey expect the US economy to grow at a pace of just 0.7% next year and nearly one in three (31%) expect the economy to shrink.

What the Fed’s December rate hike means for homebuyers and sellers - The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the seventh consecutive time this year. This time, though, the hike is smaller: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a half-point increase in the federal funds rate Dec. 14, which is down from the three-quarter-point increases of the past several meetings. Still, the last time it raised rates by as much in a single year was in the 1980sThe hikes are designed to cool an economy that was on fire after rebounding from the coronavirus recession of 2020. That dramatic recovery has included a red-hot housing market characterized by record-high home prices and microscopic levels of inventory.However, since late summer the housing market has shown signs of cooling, with appreciation slowing nationally and prices even dropping in many markets. And home prices are driven not just by interest rates but by a complicated mix of factors — so it’s hard to predict exactly how the Fed’s efforts will affect the housing market.“The housing recession is here,” says Marty Green, principal at mortgage law firm Polunsky Beitel Green. “The big question now is how quickly it spreads to the rest of the economy.Higher rates are challenging for both homebuyers, who have to cope with steeper monthly payments, and sellers, who experience less demand and/or lower offers for their homes.“The cumulative effect of this sharp rise in rates has cooled the housing market and caused the economy to start slowing, but hasn’t done much to lower inflation,” says Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst.The Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates, and the central bank’s decisions don’t move mortgages as directly as they do other products, such as savings accounts and CD rates. Instead, mortgage rates tend to move in lockstep with 10-year Treasury yields.Still, the Fed’s behavior sets the overall tone for mortgage rates. Mortgage lenders and investors closely watch the central bank, and the mortgage market’s attempts to interpret the Fed’s actions affect how much you pay for your home loan. The December rate hike was the seventh bump in 2022, a year that saw mortgage rates swing wildly from 3.4 percent in January all the way to 7.12 percent in October before inching back down again. “Such increases diminish purchase affordability, making it even harder for lower-income and first-time buyers to purchase a home,” says Clare Losey, assistant research economist at the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.

PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, shows prices cooling - The Federal Reserve’s preferred measurement of inflation showed price increases continued to moderate in November, providing yet another welcome indication that the period of painfully high prices has peaked.The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, or PCE, rose 5.5% in November from a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That’s lower than in October, when prices rose 6.1% annually In November alone, prices rose just 0.1% from October.Core PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, was up 4.7% annually and 0.2% on a monthly basis, matching expectations of economists polled by Refinitiv.The annual increases for both PCE inflation indexes hit their lowest levels since October 2021 and follows continued declines in other inflation gauges, such as the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index.PCE, specifically the core measurement, is the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, since it provides a more complete picture of costs for consumers.Friday’s report also showed that spending continued to rise in November, but at a much slower pace than in previous months. Spending was up 0.1% in November as compared to 0.8% the month before. Personal income increased by 0.4% in November, down from 0.7% in October. The November PCE report, the last major inflation gauge released in 2022, provided a snapshot of an economy in transition. Tasked with reining in the highest inflation since the early 1980s, the Fed has undertaken a series of blockbuster interest rate hikes to squelch demand.In its seven meetings starting in March, the central bank’s policymaking arm raised its benchmark interest rate by a cumulative 4.25 percentage points. The sharp hike in rates has started to filter through the economy, its effects showing up first in areas such as real estate, where mortgage rates were 6.27% this week, more than double the rate seen last year at this time, according to Freddie Mac data. “The economy is moving in the right direction from the Federal Reserve’s perspective at the end of 2022, but not quickly enough,” Gus Faucher, chief economist for PNC Financial Services, said in a statement. “Higher interest rates are weighing on consumer spending, particularly for durable goods, and inflation is slowing.”Inflation has moderated in recent months, especially on items like goods as supply chain bottlenecks have eased and consumers focused more spending in areas like leisure and hospitality.However, inflation within the services sector has been a little “sticky,” and not abating as quickly. Friday’s PCE report showed the services index posted a monthly increase of 0.4% – unchanged from October’s rate – and a year-over-year increase of more than 11%, Faucher noted.,While much of the services inflation is due to housing costs, which are rapidly reversing, the Fed is concerned that strong wage growth could fuel persistent increases in services prices and overall inflation, he added.“The Federal Open Market Committee will continue to increase the fed funds rate in early 2023 until it becomes more apparent that the job market is cooling, and wage growth and services inflation are slowing to more sustainable paces,” he added.The Fed’s latest economic projections that were released last week showed that board members were expecting inflation to remain slightly higher for longer than previously forecast. Fed board members now expect PCE inflation to end 2023 at 3.1% and core PCE to finish next year at 3.5%, above the central bank’s target rate of 2%

PCE Price Index: November Headline at 5.5% YoY - The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for November was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.1% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 5.54% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) is now at 4.68%, well above the Fed's 2% target rate. The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. The first string of red data points highlights the 12 consecutive months when Core PCE hovered in a narrow range around its interim low. The second string highlights the lower range from late 2014 through 2015. Core PCE shifted higher in 2016 with a decline in 2017, 2019, and 2020, with a major jump in 2022. The first chart below shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. Also included is an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed's preferred indicator for gauging inflation. The two percent benchmark is the Fed's conventional target for core inflation. Most recently, the Fed reviewed their monetary policy strategy and longer-term goals and released a statement, mentioning its federal mandate to promote "maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates". They also confirmed their commitment to using the two percent benchmark as a lower limit: The index data is shown to two decimal points to highlight the change more accurately. It may seem trivial to focus such detail on numbers that will be revised again next month (the three previous months are subject to revision and the annual revision reaches back three years). But core PCE is such a key measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve that precision seems warranted. For a long-term perspective, here are the same two metrics spanning five decades.

PCE Price Index for Services Doesn’t Let Up. Goods Inflation Improves. Why Powell Is Frustrated with Inflation in Services - by Wolf Richter - The Core PCE price index, the yardstick the Fed uses for its inflation target, was released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It excludes the always volatile food and energy products to present a picture of underlying inflation. Many goods prices have declined on a month-to-month basis as inflation has shifted from goods to services. And Powell has been hammering on the services segments within the PCE price index, where inflation has risen and persisted. About two-thirds of the money that consumers spend goes into services – so the services PCE is the biggie. And inflation is much harder to uproot from services, as Powell pointed out, which is why he said the Fed would keep an eye on inflation in services. The PCE price index for services rose 0.4% in November from October, same as in the prior month, and roughly double the rate before the pandemic. It zigzags up and down, as month-to-month inflation readings do, but the trend is not down. There isn’t even a convincing sign of a turning point in the uptrend: On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price Index for services rose 5.2%. It has now been above 5% for the fourth month in a row, and is not showing any signs of a substantive decline. This is very discouraging – and source of the frustration that Powell recently expressed: But the PCE price index for durable goods – new and used vehicles, appliances, furniture, etc. – is definitely showing a downtrend, and has turned negative on a month-to-month basis for the second month in a row. In November, it dropped by 0.8% from October, the biggest month-to-month drop in years: These month-to-month declines whittled down the year-over-year increase of the PCE price index for durable goods to just 2.8%, the lowest since March 2021: The PCE price index for nondurable goods also declined month to month (-0.1%); and the index for all goods declined month-to-month (-0.4%). Those charts above show what is going on with inflation: Goods inflation is coming down, but services inflation is high and not improving. The Core PCE price index for goods and services, on a month-to-month basis, has served up a number of head-fakes since early 2021, as month-to-month inflation indices do. It gets worse for a few months, and then it gets better for a few months and then it gets worse again. This is a fear and frustration that Powell also expressed in his speech a month ago, when he said that “down months in the data have often been followed by renewed increases.” So in November, it got better for the third month in a row, rising 0.2%, which seems to be encouraging. But just looking at the chart, I fear that the next leg up may be coming soon:

Opinion: Why the Fed, and Jerome Powell, should hit the pause button on rate hikes - - by Sheila Bair - “Hasten slowly and ye shall arrive” said the ancient Tibetan poet, Milarepa. The Federal Reserve Board clearly does not share this philosophy. It has tightened monetary policy at a dizzying pace, taking short-term rates from near zero at the beginning of 2022, to above 4.25%, an increase of more than 6000%. I applaud the Fed’s courage and determination to fight inflation, much like former Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s heroic defeat of “The Great Inflation” in the early 1980’s.But there are key differences between the situation then—and now. Our economy, for one thing, has become much more reliant on debt. Furthermore, the new tools the Fed is using to tighten monetary policy are more powerful than those available in the Volcker era. That’s why the Fed should hit pause to assess whether it is going too far too fast. The haste of its chair, Jerome Powell, may result in an unnecessary recession.   In the third quarter, non-financial debt (that held by government, non-financial businesses, and households) stood at 270% of GDP. The biggest component was publicly-held federal debt, which stood at 105% of GDP. There had not been that same build up of leverage when Paul Volcker became Fed Chair in 1979. Non-financial debt stood at 135% of GDP, half of what it is today. Publicly held Federal debt stood at a mere 26%.   Interest rates were already high at 13.3% before they peaked at 22% in 1980, representing a 50% yearly increase compared to the Fed’s 6000% hike this year.  The Fed is now using new, untested tools to implement its policies. Prior to 2008, the Fed carried out monetary policy primarily by buying or selling Treasury securities in the open market and occasionally by raising or lowering the “discount rate” – the minimum rate it charges for loans to banks.    Now, the Fed tightens credit by raising the risk free rate banks get by simply keeping money locked up in their reserve accounts. For nonbank financial intermediaries like money market funds, the Feds raises the rates it pays on what are called “reverse repos,” the functional equivalent of a reserve account. This policy has a powerful tightening impact on credit, suppressing both supply and demand. This has put tremendous pressure on short-term rates, resulting in steep yield curve inversions, a traditional harbinger of recession. In recent weeks, the yield on 2-year Treasuries has hovered between 70 and 80 basis points below the yield on 10-year Treasuries, a level not seen for four decades. Yield curve inversion further suppresses incentives to lend. By raising the costs of their own short-term borrowings, it negatively impacts the margins banks and other financial intermediaries can receive on their longer- terms loans.This new tool is also expensive. Reserve and reverse repo balances are well over $5 trillion. At a projected policy rate of 5%, the annual cost of paying interest on $5 trillion would be $250 billion. Because of the escalating cost of these interest liabilities, the Fed’s earnings have already turned negative. So, perversely, to combat inflation using this tool, the Fed must create more money to make good on its obligations.The Fed’s fight against inflation is not over. But in our over-leveraged world, it can go only so fast. If the Fed takes us into a deep recession, with the attendant financial disruptions and job losses, the political and market pressure to revert to ultra-low interest rates may well be too intense to resist. We would then have the worst of two worlds, the pain of recession and resurgence of inflation.

Fed Tightening Reduces Horrendous Wealth Disparity that QE and Interest Rate Repression Have Wrought: Fed Data - The vast wealth of the top 1% households declined, the minuscule “wealth” of the bottom 50% increased a tad. By Wolf Richter  - In the third quarter, the drop in asset prices continued to reduce the biggest wealth disparity ever between the “Bottom 50%,” who gained a little wealth, and the very top households – the “Top 0.1%” and the “Remaining 1%” – who gave up some of their vast wealth for the third quarter in a row, according to the Fed’s data on the distribution of wealth by category of wealth. In other words, the tightening by the Fed – the higher interest rates and the beginning of QT that the crybabies on Wall Street bewail on a daily basis – has undone a small portion of the horrendous wealth inequality that the prior years of QE and interest rate repression had caused. Alas, the Bottom 50% don’t show in the chart because their “wealth” is so minuscule that it’s just a straight line on top of the horizontal axis. Even the “Next 40%” (everyone below the Top 10% and above the Bottom 50%) have so little compared to the top 0.1%, they barely register at the bottom of the chart (green line). Note the gigantic wealth disparity between the 0.1% and the Remaining 1%. This is the nature of the wealth disparity in America, according to the Fed’s data. But QT and rate hikes are now undoing a little of it: To put it into the perspective of households, I divided the Fed’s wealth data by the Census Bureau’s number of households to obtain the average wealth per household in the Fed’s categories of wealth.Here is the average wealth per household in Q3, by wealth category, and how it changed from the end of 2021 (in bold). Note the gain by the Bottom 50%:

  • “Top 0.1%” (red): $132.4 million (-$13 million, -9.0%)
  • “Remaining 1%” (purple): $19.3 million (-$2.4 million, -11.2%)
  • “Next 9%” (brown): $4.4 million (-$269,000, -5.8%)
  • “Next 40%” (green): $768,000 (-$16,500; -2.1%)
  • “Bottom 50%” (not shown in the chart): $70,800 (+$10,800; +18.1%).

The Bottom 50% own almost no stocks and mutual funds, which is why a stock-market swoon doesn’t faze them. Most of their assets are their home and “consumer durables.” Consumer durables are things like cars, appliances, electronics, etc., whose value depreciates. They have $164,200 in assets per household on average, minus $93,400 in liabilities = wealth of $70,800. Assets:

  • Real estate (home): $96,500 – meaning many households don’t own any real estate.
  • Consumer durables (cars, appliances): $30,000
  • Stocks, mutual funds: $3,000 – meaning most households don’t own any equities.
  • Pension entitlements (defined benefit & defined contribution): $13,600
  • Private business: $2,400
  • Other assets, including money in the bank: $18,700

Liabilities:

  • Home mortgage: $45,400
  • Consumer credit (auto, student, credit cards, other loans): $41,300
  • Other liabilities: $6,700

Their wealth has increased by $10,800 per household on average in 2022, largely due to an increase of home equity and consumer durables. This is why half of Americans got nearly nothing when the Fed inflated the stock market with QE and interest rate repression; and they don’t care what happens to the stock market. What they care about is the purchasing power of their labor – and inflation, including house-price inflation, ate it up.Here we’re looking with a magnifying glass at what in the chart above didn’t show because it was a straight line on the horizontal axis:

Sen. Pat Toomey unveils Fed reform bill -  Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., introduced legislation Wednesday that would eliminate more than half of the regional Federal Reserve banks and subject the remaining banks to additional federal rules and restrictions.The bill, titled the Federal Reserve Accountability Act, would reduce the number of regional Federal Reserve banks from 12 to five; require bank presidents to be nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate; and permanently install those presidents on the Federal Open Market Committee. Currently, the presidents are chosen by the members of their boards of directors and rotate on and off the FOMC.Regional Fed banks would also be subject to the Federal Anti-Lobbying Act — a law that restricts federal government personnel from engaging in certain political activities and lobbying Congress — to address what Toomey said are increasingly partisan activities by some regional banks.

Digital dollar is a long way from reality, Treasury official says - The Treasury Department's top official for financial markets and stability expressed little urgency over the federal government's need to prepare for the potential launch of a digital U.S. dollar. Regulators need to examine whether a central bank digital currency — or CBDC — would actually improve the speed or cost of real-time interbank payments, which the Federal Reserve is aiming to introduce in 2023, said Nellie Liang, undersecretary for domestic finance at the Treasury.

Q3 GDP Growth Revised Up to 3.2% Annual Rate -- From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised), Third Quarter 2022  Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2022, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent.The "third" estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.9 percent. The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. For more information, refer to "Updates to GDP."...Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 0.8 percent in the third quarter, an upward revision of 0.5 percentage point from the previous estimate. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.0 percent in the third quarter, an upward revision of 0.4 percentage point..Here is a Comparison of Third and Second Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 1.7% to 2.3%. Residential investment was revised down from -26.8% to -27.1%.

Things to watch in the omnibus spending bill -  Congress is planning on leaving Washington for the holidays this week after a productive lame-duck session, especially if lawmakers can follow through approving a fiscal 2023 spending package. Text of an omnibus could emerge as soon as Monday, particularly because Senate Republicans have said they will not work on negotiating full-year spending beyond this week. If talks break down, the GOP would then demand another stopgap into next year. Even though Democrats have been celebrating passage of the infrastructure bill and the Inflation Reduction Act, an omnibus this week would fulfill more priorities before Republicans retake the House. Negotiations have been ongoing over the funding mechanism for the “Recovering America’s Wildlife Act,” a bill that would provide money to states, territories and tribes for conserving, restoring and protecting local wildlife and habitat. Original proposals in the House and Senate — H.R. 2773 and S. 2372— called for authorizing nearly $13 billion over 10 years, but disagreements about how to pay for the bill could end up lowering the overall price tag and shortening the length of the program. That is, if negotiators are able to agree on a pay-for at all. A bipartisan group of senators have taken over talks on how to reconcile differences surrounding the agreed-upon offset: a new application of the wash sale rule to certain digital assets and commodities. Lawmakers are squabbling over what specific assets and commodities should be included in this overall category.  A failure to find consensus would be a devastating blow for the bipartisan, bicameral legislation that supporters say would represent one of the biggest conservation victories in a generation. Separately, many lawmakers are hopeful to reach a deal on a lands package to include in the omnibus. It would be a collection of noncontroversial bills that have passed out of either the House Natural Resources Committee or the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. The package likely would not, people said, include more controversial proposals like one from Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) — S. 2561 — that would free the Forest Service of a court-imposed requirement to consult with the Fish and Wildlife Service on certain forest management plans when new potential risks to endangered species arise.Negotiators are likely to agree on investing in wildfire prevention and mitigation funding, a shared priority among members of both parties. The House bill’s fire management budget included $321.4 million for the removal of hazardous fuels such as dead trees from national forests, as the agency tries to chip away at a backlog of such projects that officials say will take years to seriously reduce.The Senate Appropriations Committee proposed $4.4 billion for wildfire suppression, including a $450 million emergency supplemental that lawmakers said makes up for an underestimate of actual suppression costs over the past four years.Outstanding is whether there will be a significant investment in the Civilian Climate Corps, the green jobs training and placement program that fell to the wayside in the final version of the budget reconciliation measure. Lawmakers made lofty promises the past two years when they passed a handful of bills that reauthorized and revamped the Department of Energy’s research and development programs.The CHIPS and Science Act included the first ever reauthorization of DOE’s Office of Science. Congress approved $50 billion over five years for the bureau, which oversees the national labs. The omnibus represents Democrats’ best chance to pump billions of dollars into international climate aid before Republicans take back the House in January. Democrats have long sought to secure dedicated funding for the United Nations Green Climate Fund in appropriations bills, only to be foiled annually by Republican opposition.

Lawmakers unveil a $1.7 trillion spending bill as shutdown deadline looms : NPR — Congressional leaders unveiled a government-wide $1.7 trillion spending package early Tuesday that includes another large round of aid to Ukraine, a nearly 10% boost in defense spending and roughly $40 billion to assist communities across the country recovering from drought, hurricanes and other natural disasters. The bill, which runs for 4,155 pages, includes about $772.5 billion for non-defense discretionary programs and $858 billion in defense funding and would last through the end of the fiscal year in September. Lawmakers worked to stuff in as many priorities as they could into the sprawling package, likely the last major bill of the current Congress. They are racing to complete passage before a midnight Friday deadline or face the prospect of a partial government shutdown going into the Christmas holiday. Lawmakers leading the negotiations released the details of the bill shortly before 2 a.m. Tuesday. The spending package includes about $45 billion emergency assistance to Ukraine as it battles Russia's invasion, according to Sen. Patrick Leahy, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. It would be the biggest American infusion of assistance yet to Ukraine, above even President Joe Biden's $37 billion emergency request, and ensure that funding flows to the war effort for months to come. The U.S. has provided about $68 billion to Ukraine in previous rounds of military, economic and humanitarian assistance. "The bitterness of winter has descended on Eastern Europe, and if our friends in Ukraine hope to triumph Russia, America must stand firmly on the side of our democratic friends abroad," said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. The legislation also includes historic revisions to federal election law that aim to prevent any future presidents or presidential candidates from trying to overturn an election. The bipartisan overhaul of the Electoral Count Act is in direct response to former President Donald Trump's efforts to convince Republican lawmakers and then-Vice President Mike Pence to object to the certification of President Joe Biden's victory on Jan. 6, 2021. "We are now one step closer to protecting our democracy and preventing another January 6th," said Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell has warned that if the fiscal year 2023 spending measure fails to gain bipartisan support this week, he would seek another short-term patch into next year, guaranteeing that the new Republican majority in the House would get to shape the package. Leahy argued against that approach in releasing the bill saying, "the choice is clear. We can either do our jobs and fund the government, or we can abandon our responsibilities without a real path forward." McConnell said the GOP's negotiations were successful in the end. He framed the longer-term spending bill as a victory for the GOP, even as many will undoubtedly vote against it. He said Republicans were successful in increasing defense spending far beyond Biden's request while scaling back some of the increase Biden wanted for domestic spending. "We've transferred huge sums of money away from Democrats' spending wish list toward our national defense and armed forces, but without allowing the overall cost of the package to go higher," McConnell said.

Spending bill would revamp pandemic response, Medicaid funding  ---  A sweeping year-end $1.7 trillion congressional spending package would revamp the country’s pandemic response and make major changes to Medicaid policy, among other health provisions. The legislation includes most of a bipartisan bill from Sens. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Richard Burr (R-N.C.) aimed at improving the U.S. preparedness for pandemics after the many shortcomings in the response to COVID-19. The bill includes changes aimed at improving public health communication and data collection, speeding up the development of vaccines and treatments, and bolstering oversight of health agencies. It also would make the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention a Senate-confirmed position. “The COVID pandemic has taught our nation some painful lessons, and we owe it to our families and communities to make sure we never go through this again,” Murray said in a statement. “I’m glad we were able to get these critical policies into the end-of-year omnibus.” But the spending bill notably excludes a measure that would have established a bipartisan task force modeled on the 9/11 Commission to examine the U.S. response to COVID-19 as well as the controversial subject of the origins of the pandemic. Partisan investigations are underway in both chambers, which has dismayed public health advocates who fear no answers will be gained without an independent probe. The spending bill also includes a provision that would save the government tens of billions of dollars by allowing states to begin kicking people off the pandemic-enhanced Medicaid coverage in April as the federal government phases out the extra funding states have received since the earliest days of the pandemic. In normal times, states are allowed to redetermine whether a beneficiary remains eligible for Medicaid at least once a year and remove anyone who no longer qualifies. But during the public health emergency, anyone who was Medicaid-eligible was allowed to remain continuously enrolled. As a result, enrollment surged to record numbers. Removing Medicaid coverage from the public health emergency was a major priority for Republicans, but it would also give state health officials certainty. The public health emergency did not have a firm end date, so state Medicaid officials never knew when they would have to start going through their Medicaid rolls to figure out who was no longer eligible. “That constant need to kind of go through all those exercises and constantly revise your assumptions … is creating a real, real friction between state Medicaid agencies and some of their trusted partners and decision makers,” said Jack Rollins, the director of federal policy for the National Association of Medicaid Directors. “That advance notice is really important because we are looking at essentially nearly three years of no Medicaid program doing redeterminations, and that is going to be a significant amount of work when we have to start doing this again,” Rollins said. Some of the money saved would go toward long-sought Democratic priorities, such as allowing states to permanently extend Medicaid coverage for new mothers for a full year, and to give a continuous year of eligibility for children on Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program.

U.S. Senate advances $1.66 trillion government-funding bill (Reuters) - A $1.66 trillion government spending bill drew overwhelming bipartisan support in the U.S. Senate on Tuesday as lawmakers steered it toward passage before a weekend deadline to avoid a partial shutdown of federal agencies. Democratic and Republican negotiators agreed early Tuesday morning on the sweeping bill to fund the federal government through the end of its fiscal year on Sept. 30, raising funding from about $1.5 trillion in the last fiscal year. The Senate voted 70-25 to proceed to debate of the bill, with some Republican senators hoping to offer amendments. A handful of conservative Senate Republicans on Tuesday said they objected to the bill, but would not try to stop its passage. "Under no circumstances are we going to go over the shutdown deadline," said Senator Mike Lee, who joined a news conference with four allies to speak out against the measure. Fellow Republican Senator Mike Braun said the group will intensify its budget reform efforts next year, when Republicans take control of the House of Representatives. The bill includes other measures agreed on by negotiators from both parties, including a ban on the use of TikTok on government-owned devices and clarification of Congress's role in certifying elections, an attempt to avoid a repeat of the violence of Jan. 6, 2021. Senate and House leaders aim to pass the 4,155-page bill and send it to Democratic President Joe Biden for signing by the end of the week to ensure there are no interruptions to the government's activities. The Tuesday vote was the first in a series of steps clearing the way for passage by Friday. Top Senate Republican Mitch McConnell said most of his caucus supports it: "We're moving toward completing the business for the year. And I think in a highly productive way from the point of view of the vast majority of Senate Republicans." Failure to pass legislation in time could bring a partial government shutdown beginning Saturday, just before Christmas, and possibly lead into a months-long standoff after Republicans take control of the House on Jan. 3, breaking the grip of Biden's Democrats on both chambers of Congress. Budget experts found fault with the bill's size. "This budget is too late and too big," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. She noted that much of the spending increases are to keep pace with inflation, but said, "A lower number would help bring inflation down." Included in the bill is $44.9 billion in emergency assistance to Ukraine and NATO allies and $40.6 billion to assist communities across the United States recovering from natural disasters and other matters. The Ukraine funds would be used for military training, equipment, logistics and intelligence support, as well as for replenishing U.S. equipment sent to Kyiv. It also includes funding to prepare for and respond to potential nuclear and radiological incidents in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has not ruled out the use of nuclear weapons in the conflict with Ukraine. Included in the Ukraine package is $13.4 billion in economic aide and $2.4 billion to help resettle Ukrainians in the United States. The military aid would be on top of the record $858 billion in U.S. defense spending for the year, which is up from last year's $740 billion and also exceeds Biden's request. On the non-defense side of the ledger, the bill's negotiators have set funding at $800 billion, a $68 billion increase over the previous year. This includes increased healthcare funding for poor children. Among the most significant add-ons to the spending bill is the bipartisan Electoral Count Act, which overhauls and clarifies Congress' certification process for presidential elections. Democrats and many Republicans see the measure as crucial to avoiding a repeat of the chaos that occurred almost two years ago when a mob of Donald Trump supporters attacked the Capitol building in an attempt to overturn Biden's victory. U.S. lawmakers also included a proposal to bar federal employees from using the Chinese short-video app TikTok on government-owned devices. And they backed a proposal to lift a looming deadline imposing a new safety standard for modern cockpit alerts for two new versions of Boeing Co's (BA.N) 737 MAX aircraft. Measures left out include legislation that would have provided citizenship to "Dreamer" immigrants, who illegally entered the United States as children. Criminal justice reform advocates came away largely empty-handed, after a compromise measure that would have dramatically lessened the sentencing disparity between crack cocaine and powder cocaine collapsed. And the cannabis industry suffered a defeat after a closely watched measure that would have shored up banking regulations for legal marijuana companies was excluded.

House Republicans threaten GOP senators’ pet projects over spending bill vote: ‘New political reality’ -Thirty-one House Republicans are doubling down on their threat to oppose any legislation in the next Congress that is favored by GOP senators who vote for a massive $1.7 trillion spending bill this week. The group of House Republicans, led by Texas Rep. Chip Roy, says the threat is serious. In a letter sent to Senate Republicans on Wednesday, which was obtained exclusively by Fox News Digital, the lawmakers said they would block "even the smallest legislative and policy efforts." "We reiterate that if any omnibus passes in the remaining days of this Congress, we will oppose and whip opposition to any legislative priority of those senators who vote for this bill – including the Republican leader," the lawmakers wrote. Their threat could have major repercussions for next year, as the GOP-controlled House will only be able to lose a handful of votes on any piece of legislation before having to rely on Democrats to secure passage. "Kill this terrible bill or there is no point in pretending we are a united party, and we must prepare for a new political reality," the lawmakers wrote. Roy argued the threat should not be seen as House Republicans vowing revenge if the spending bill passes. Instead, the Texas lawmaker said the hardball tactic was the only way that House Republicans could show they were serious in opposing the pricey bill. "It’s the only tool I have to pressure them to stop doing this to us," said Roy. "The House GOP majority, if allowed, could set a new tone in which we rebuild our military, project strength, and help our allies – but not at the expense of fiscal strength." Roy and 13 House Republicans initially made the threat earlier this week in a letter to the Senate. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, the GOP's designated choice for speaker, quickly threw his support behind the tactic. "When I’m Speaker, their bills will be dead on arrival in the House if this nearly $2 [trillion] monstrosity is allowed to move forward over our objections and the will of the American people," said McCarthy, R-Calif.Since then, more than a dozen other House Republicans have pledged to similarly block legislation favored by senators that back the bill. The threat comes as Congress readies to pass the $1.7 trillion package this week. The spending bill includes more than $858 billion for defense spending, while appropriating $787 billion for domestic spending and $45 billion in additional aid to Ukraine. House Republicans have said that Congress should not move forward with the bill and instead pass a short-term funding bill that keeps the government running until mid-January.

Spending Bill Contains Billions for Ukraine, Funds U.S. Ammunition Manufacturing – WSJ - —The spending bill unveiled in the Senate early Tuesday contains $45 billion to support Ukraine in its battle against Russia. If passed by Congress, it would arm and equip Ukrainian and North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces, fund a surge of U.S. troops and materiel to Europe, bolster the U.S.’s domestic defense industry, extend budget and economic assistance to the Kyiv government and much more. ere is some of what is in the bill, according to summaries released by Democratic and Republican lawmakers:

    • $9 billion to arm, equip and train Ukrainian forces. This would come on top of the nearly $20 billion in military hardware the U.S. has already sent Kyiv, including from its own armaments stockpiles. 
    • $7 billion for the Pentagon to fund the surge of U.S. troops and gear to Europe, which are intended to stand as a bulwark against a potential Russian escalation onto NATO turf.
    • $687 million for Army ammunition plants, to build capacity in the domestic munitions industry, according to a Senate Republican summary. Among other signs the war in Ukraine is straining U.S. ammunition stockpiles, the Pentagon recently secured a deal with South Korea under which Seoul would sell artillery shells destined for Ukrainian forces. That would enable the U.S. to supply the Ukrainians without digging deeper into the American inventory of artillery rounds, which U.S. officials have acknowledged are dwindling quickly.
    • $300 million for Ukrainian police and border guards, in part for the rescue and protection of civilians caught in Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s population centers and civilian infrastructure. 
    • $13 billion in economic assistance to Kyiv. The Ukrainian government is facing a crippling budget shortfall as economic activity has plummeted during the war—the International Monetary Fund has projected Ukraine’s economy will contract by 35% this year. The IMF has estimated that Ukraine needs $5 billion a month in aid to cover essential government services and keep the economy functioning. Beyond that, Kyiv has said it would take hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild the country when the war ends.
    • $4 billion to aid Ukrainian refugees. As many as eight million Ukrainians have fled the country for elsewhere in Europe. Many had hoped to return home in the fall, but amid the Russian attack on Ukraine’s power grid and other infrastructure, senior Ukrainian officials have said refugees in Europe should stay put for now. Those refugees now face the prospect of a more permanent exodus, having to look for work and send their children to local schools.
    • Millions to the U.S. Government Accountability Office and the State Department’s Office of Inspector General to track the spending and monitor Ukraine’s use of U.S. funds.

‘Secure 2.0’ is part of the $1.7 trillion spending bill, putting it on track to usher in retirement system improvements -- Another round of changes to the U.S. retirement system appears to be on its way. A collection of retirement-related provisions known as “Secure 2.0” is included in a 4,100-page, $1.7 trillion spending bill — which would fund the government for the 2023 fiscal year — that was unveiled Monday night. Approval by both the Senate and House are expected by the end of this week.      “It’s headed for passage,” said Paul Richman, chief government and political affairs officer for the Insured Retirement Institute. “I don’t believe there will be further changes to [Secure 2.0]The Secure 2.0 provisions are intended to build on improvements to the retirement system that were implemented under the 2019 Secure Act. Those changes included giving part-time workers better access to retirement benefits and increasing the age when required minimum distributions, or RMDs, from certain retirement accounts must start — to age 72 from 70½. This time around, some of the many provisions that are in the massive appropriations bill include:

  • Requiring automatic 401(k) enrollment: Employers would be required to automatically enroll employees in their 401(k) plan at a rate of least 3% but not more than 10%. Businesses with 10 or fewer workers and new companies in business for less than three years are among those that would be excluded from the mandate.
    • Increasing the age when RMDs would need to start: The current bill would increase it from age 72 to age 73 in 2023 and then to age 75 in 2033. Additionally, the penalty for failing to take RMDs would be reduced to 25%, and in some cases, 10%, from the current 50%
    • Creating bigger “catch-up” contributions for older retirement savers: Under current law, you can put an extra $6,500 annually in your 401(k) once you reach age 50. Secure 2.0 would increase the limit to $10,000 (or 50% more than the regular catch-up amount) starting in 2025 for savers ages 60 to 63. Catch-up amounts also would be indexed for inflation. Additionally, all catch-up contributions will be subject to Roth treatment (i.e., not pretax) except for workers who earn $145,000 or less.
    • Broadening employer 401(k) match options: A proposal would make it easier for employers to make contributions to 401(k) plans on behalf of employees paying student loans instead of saving for retirement.
  • Improving worker access to emergency savings: One provision would let employees withdraw up to $1,000 from their retirement account for emergency expenses without having to pay the typical 10% tax penalty for early withdrawal if they are under age 59½. Companies also could let workers set up an emergency savings account through automatic payroll deductions, with a cap of $2,500.

The under-the-radar health provisions in the massive government funding bill - -- Capitol Hill’s sweeping spending package is filled with new health measures, from longer-term funding for the Indian Health Service to beefed up dollars for the new 988 mental health crisis hotline. The massive 4,155-page bill is expected to be sent to President Biden’s desk by the end of the week, where an array of health policy provisions large and small are set to become law. 

  • More stable IHS funding: Native American groups and their congressional allies mounted perhaps their largest effort to push Congress to provide more funding certainty to the federal health agency that helps serve roughly 2.6 million American Indians and Alaska Natives.  Their efforts paid off. For the first time, the Indian Health Service will now get what’s called an advance appropriation. That means the omnibus package will also include funding for the 2024 fiscal year, so the agency isn’t subjected to a temporary funding measure when Congress almost certainly fails to pass another budget before Sept. 30.
  • A boost for 988: The nationwide hotline for mental health emergencies is set to get nearly $502 million — which is a nearly $400 million increase. Over the summer, the hotline switched to a new, easy-to-use number, 988, and the ultimate goal is to be able to dispatch mobile crisis teams immediately to anyone in need, no matter where they live.
  • Nixing the X waiver: The legislation aims to make it easier for providers to prescribe buprenorphine to treat opioid addiction. Providers have had to obtain a separate waiver from the Drug Enforcement Administration to prescribe the drug, a requirement providers argue slows their response to the opioid epidemic. The government spending bill would let DEA-registered providers prescribe or dispense the drug for opioid use disorder without obtaining separate permission.
  • Cracking down on accelerated approvals: The Food and Drug Administration will have added oversight over drugs approved under an expedited process, such as allowing the agency to require post-approval studies already be underway when a drug gets the greenlight. Other measures include creating an intra-agency council to ensure the pathway is being used appropriately.
  • The FDA’s fast-tracked process is meant to speed up the availability of drugs that treat serious conditions in need of more treatments. But the accelerated approval program has come under scrutiny in recent years with lawmakers, experts and even top FDA officials saying they want to reform the program.
  • Covering covid-19 pills: The package appears to plug a major looming hole in coverage for Paxlovid, the pill that has proved effective at preventing hospitalization and death among the elderly. The legislation would allow Medicare’s voluntary prescription drug benefit to cover oral antiviral drugs even if they are under emergency use authorization. This comes as the federal government is poised to stop paying for the medication some time next year, turning over the drugs to the commercial market instead.
  • A Senate-confirmed CDC director: We mentioned this yesterday, but it’s a pretty big change. The Senate confirms the leaders of prominent health agencies, but not the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — at least up until now. Bipartisan legislation from Sens. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Richard Burr (R-N.C.) aimed at tackling future pandemics included a requirement that the chamber confirm the CDC director, and such a measure was included in the new spending bill. The mandate would start on January 20, 2025, which seems to be around the next presidential inauguration.

Millions to lose Medicaid coverage under Congress' plan - -- Millions of people who enrolled in Medicaid during the COVID-19 pandemic could start to lose their coverage on April 1 if Congress passes the $1.7 trillion spending package leaders unveiled Tuesday. The legislation will sunset a requirement of the COVID-19 public health emergency that prohibited states from booting people off Medicaid. The Biden administration has been under mounting pressure to declare the public health emergency over, with 25 Republican governors asking the president to end it in a letter on Monday, which cited growing concerns about bloated Medicaid enrollment. “This is a positive for states in terms of planning, however, this will come at the cost of some individuals losing their health care,” said Massey Whorley, a principal at health consulting firm Avalere. Millions are expected to be bumped from the program, which grants health care coverage to nearly 80 million low-income people throughout the country. The federal government will also wind down extra funds given to states for the added enrollees over the next year under the proposal. Many will be eligible for health insurance coverage through employers, the Affordable Care Act or, in the case of kids, the Children’s Health Insurance Program. Advocates have raised concerns about how states will notify enrollees if they are being kicked off the program and what their options are. The effort will be particularly challenging for some of the country's poorest people, who may not have stable home address or access to internet or phone services to check their status. If passed, the spending package would allow states to start kicking people off the program as early as April, but require them to notify enrollees first. People who are on Medicaid should make sure their contact information is up to date on their accounts and that they check the mail frequently to keep an eye on their eligibility status as that April 1 date nears, said Robin Rudowitz, the director of Medicaid at Kaiser Family Foundation. “There is likely to be people who fall through the cracks,” she said.

Congress Offers $1 Billion for Climate Aid, Falling Short of Biden’s Pledge - The New York Times — Congress has proposed $1 billion to help poor countries cope with climate change, a figure that falls significantly short of President Biden’s promise that the United States will spend $11.4 billion annually by 2024 to ensure developing nations can transition to clean energy and adapt to a warming planet. The money is part of a sprawling $1.7 trillion government spending package that lawmakers made public early Tuesday and are expected to vote on this week. Democrats had sought $3.4 billion for various global climate programs but Republicans quashed what they called “radical environmental and climate policies” in the spending bill. The Republicans are poised to assume control of the House in January, further dimming prospects for additional climate funds for at least the next two years. The setback for Mr. Biden comes a month after he appeared at the United Nations climate talks in Egypt, where he promised to deliver financial help to developing nations that are suffering from the impacts of a climate crisis for which they are ill-prepared and did little to cause. “The climate crisis is hitting hardest those countries and communities that have the fewest resources to respond and to recover,” Mr. Biden told the gathering.

U.S. climate aid pledge runs into Capitol Hill reality - The United States agreed at last month’s climate talks to support a new form of aid for countries losing lives and livelihoods to climate-fueled disasters, but the latest spending fight in Congress shows how difficult it will be to live up to that commitment. The $1.7 trillion fiscal 2023 federal spending bill lawmakers are expected to pass this week contains just $1 billion to help developing countries respond to climate change. That hardly puts a down payment on President Joe Biden’s pledge to deliver $11.4 billion annually in international climate finance by 2024. And it bodes poorly for future funding, particularly after the United States and other developed countries agreed at the latest round of U.N. climate talks, known as COP 27, to back a new pot of money for the losses and damages poorer nations face from increasingly severe droughts, storms, heat and rising seas. The details of that new fund will come into focus over the next year, but already, many in Congress are cool to the idea. Democrats prefer to provide targeted aid for the clean energy transition, rather than contribute money to a fund for the damage wrought by climate change driven by emissions from the industrialized world. The US has long resisted payments for loss and damage out of fear it could lead to legal action or endless claims of compensation. “We don’t particularly like the format that was approved for loss and damages, because we don’t think it’s going to work.” In the omnibus package, funding for the State Department and foreign operations includes $260 million for clean energy programs, $270 million for programs that help countries adapt to climate impacts and $125 million for the Clean Technology Fund, a multi-donor fund that helps deploy renewable energy and clean transport in emerging economies. But most of that money would stand at the same levels as fiscal 2022, with the exception of the Global Environment Facility, which grew by $900,000. That means the growth in climate finance year on year was less than $1 million. “It’s a failure on climate finance,” said Joe Thwaites, an international climate finance advocate at the Natural Resources Defense Council. The omnibus package also contains none of the $1.6 billion the Biden administration requested for the U.N. Green Climate Fund. That fund provides money to help developing countries transition to clean energy and build their resilience against growing climate impacts. U.S. lawmakers have never directly appropriated money to it, and the United States hasn’t paid into the fund since 2017. The Obama administration only delivered $1 billion toward a $3 billion pledge before the Trump presidency stopped contributing. Many questions remain about how the new U.N. loss-and-damage fund will operate and how money will feed into it. Climate advocates and those who pushed for the fund want to ensure that it fills gaps in current funding and doesn’t take from pots dedicated to humanitarian aid, mitigation or adaptation. But the fact that the United States can’t deliver on its pledge to the Green Climate Fund is a strong signal that it’s not invested in supporting other countries, said Thwaites.

What Congress’s spending bill includes for energy, sustainability - Congress has released a $1.7 trillion bill to fund the government for fiscal 2023.The agreement came as Democrats sought to get a bill across the finish line while they still held both houses of Congress — giving the GOP a fair amount of leverage in the negotiations.The mammoth funding package includes boosts to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and billions in natural disaster aid, among other provisions. A statement from the Senate Appropriations Committee said the package included $40.6 billion to help communities recover from “drought, hurricanes, flooding, wildfire, natural disasters and other matters.”That includes about $4 billion for farm aid; $520 million to help Western power districts buy fuel to make up for hydropower shortfalls; $2 billion for emergency wildfire funding; and about $1.6 billion to repair the damaged water system of Jackson, Miss., and address other impacts from Hurricanes Fiona and Ian. Another $5 billion will go to replenishing the disaster relief funds at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and $2.5 billion to repair damages on public lands, including the National Park system.  Much of the remaining funding pays for repairs to federal property essential to both plan for and respond to disasters. For example, $820 million will go to the National Science Foundation for both research and repairs while more than $500 million will go to NASA. Another $500 million will pay for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to repair and replace equipment used to track and respond to disasters like hurricanes. The measure includes just more than $10 billion for the Environmental Protection Agency — a $576 million increase over 2022. The allowance is nearly $2 billion less than the approximately $12 billion sought by the Biden administration. In their budget statement, Senate Republicans bragged about how they had rejected the president’s “radical environmental and climate policies” and kept overall nondefense spending increases to just 5.5 percent over last year. However, the EPA is also set to receive more than $100 billion from federal spending bills like the Inflation Reduction Act over the next few years, E&E News reported.The appropriations bill allocates more than $46 billion to the Energy Department. The majority of that money, about $31 billion, goes to military purposes, like the development of new nuclear weapons and cleanup of the environment around nuclear bases.The remaining $15.8 billion goes to civilian purposes, ranging from advanced nuclear energy to rural water projects. The bill also includes $8 billion for the Energy Department’s Department of Science — $300 million more than the president requested.In one key area, however, negotiators settled on less water and energy spending than the president had requested. They include about $3.5 billion for energy efficiency and renewable energy — more than half a billion less than the administration had requested. Meanwhile, nearly $900 million — $65 million more than last year — is included for research and development into new fossil fuels.

Omnibus package: 4 takeaways on energy and environment - - The Senate voted 70-25 Tuesday evening to take up the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill that includes modest increases for energy and environment agencies. While the Senate and House have days of work before final passage, the vote showed there is significant bipartisan support for the bill, even with conservative Republicans rallying for its defeat. A deal to expedite the approval process could emerge as soon as Wednesday, with lawmakers eager to leave the nation’s capital ahead of approaching winter weather that threatens to disrupt holiday plans. But before a final vote, conservative Republicans are demanding a host of amendment votes on the bill, including a measure from Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) to remove all earmarks from the package. Following the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the Inflation Reduction Act, the omnibus is part of the Democrats’ energy and environment agenda, even if they didn’t get the spending increases and legislative deals they were hoping for. Here are four takeaways:

  • 1. Swimming in earmarks. The omnibus is the second fiscal 2023 package with congressionally directed spending, or earmarks, since lawmakers revived the practice. The package includes more than 1,000 specific earmarks across energy and environment agencies.  A significant number of earmarks will fund EPA drinking water projects. Lawmakers approved 780 EPA earmarks, 193 Army Corps of Engineers earmarks, 152 Department of Energy earmarks and 132 Interior Department earmarks. The Department of Energy received 152 and the Department of Interior programs saw 134. Some of the largest earmarks include Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran’s request for $10 million for Kansas City Board of Utilities to replace aging water lines. Moran is a member of the Senate Defense Appropriations Subcommittee.
  • 2. Landmark bill underfunded.  When Congress passed the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 earlier this summer, supporters heralded the legislation for its renewed investment in the nation’s research and development enterprise.But the omnibus released this week means Congress will not live up to the bill’s expectations — at least not yet. Even though authorized programs would see big jumps, the spending doesn’t match the law’s ambition.
  • 3. Defense Production Act money missing. The omnibus snubbed an executive order from President Joe Biden earlier this year designed to boost domestic renewable energy manufacturing. In a June executive order, Biden provided DOE with Defense Production Act authorities to accelerate domestic production of solar, electric grid components, heat pumps, insulation and fuel cells. The action was supposed to be a compromise after Biden delayed possible new tariffs on imported solar panels, angering domestic solar manufacturers.
  • 4. Outdoor recreation next year? Advocates had been banking on the inclusion of a major outdoor recreation package in the omnibus championed by Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and ranking member John Barrasso (R-Wyo.).S. 3266, the “America’s Outdoor Recreation Act,” would enhance existing recreation sites on federal lands, foster public-private partnerships to modernize campgrounds and provide technical and financial assistants to businesses in recreation area-adjacent communities.Ultimately, a narrow lands package was approved for inclusion — without “America’s Outdoor Recreation Act” (E&E Daily, Dec. 20).

How the $1.7T omnibus affects energy, from CCS to hydrogen -  - The year-end spending package released by Congress on Tuesday could deliver an influx of funding to several Department of Energy programs that may be pivotal for hitting the Biden administration’s climate targets.The omnibus bill — which would fund the government at $1.7 trillion for fiscal 2023 — would provide $46.5 billion to DOE to “fund programs in its primary mission areas of science, energy, environment, and national security,” Senate appropriators said in an explanatory statement on the package. That’s an increase of roughly $1.7 billion from fiscal 2022 for the department.The funds would support the department’s efforts to scale carbon capture and removal technologies, advance technologies aimed at boosting the resilience of the U.S. electricity system and reduce emissions from heavy industry like steel and concrete, among other initiatives.The bipartisan legislation could receive a final vote later this week before lawmakers adjourn for the year. It represents the last opportunity for Congress to dole out funds to energy-focused agencies prior to Republicans’ taking over the House in January.Under the plan, DOE’s Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management would receive $890 million, a $65 million increase from fiscal 2022. The agency’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy would get $3.5 billion, a $260 million uptick from last year (E&E Daily, Dec. 20).The Office of Electricity, which oversees policy for resilience and security of regional electric grids, would also get a boost. It would receive $350 million, a $73 million bump from last year. About $95 million of that pot would go toward energy storage technologies.In addition to money for DOE, the package would expand funding for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, an independent agency with oversight of electric power markets and natural gas pipelines. FERC would get $508.4 million, up from $466.4 million in fiscal 2022.Here are three ways the spending bill would affect energy:

  • Carbon capture and removal. The omnibus would provide $140 million for research, development and demonstration of carbon dioxide removal technologies across multiple offices — with DOE’s fossil office set to receive “not less than” half of that funding, according to the report from Senate appropriators.Additionally, the bill calls for the creation of a pilot procurement program for the purchase of CO2 that’s been removed from either the atmosphere or the upper hydrosphere.
  • Transmission and the power grid.  The proposed funding for FERC comes as the agency is weighing two rules that could promote development of long-distance transmission lines and speed up the process for connecting clean energy projects to the grid.
  • Innovation. Several other technologies that are a priority for the Biden administration’s climate plans would benefit from increases in the measure.DOE hydrogen programs, for instance, would get approximately $316 million in total, with $163 million and $113 million overseen by the renewable and fossil offices, respectively. For industrial decarbonization, DOE would receive $685 million under the plan.

'Carbon neutral' scores another victory in omnibus - -  A perennial battle in Congress over the environmental effects of burning wood for energy has tipped again toward the biomass industry. The $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill declares forest bioenergy carbon neutral and instructs federal agencies to adopt policies supporting that assumption, discarding efforts in both the House and Senate to avoid the terminology.The bill, poised to pass by Friday, calls on agencies to “establish clear and simple policies” for forest biomass as an energy source, including policies that “reflect the carbon neutrality of forest bioenergy and recognize biomass as a renewable energy source.” Industry groups say turning woody biomass into energy — such as by burning wood pellets — doesn’t add to net carbon emissions as long as forests aren’t converted to nonforest uses in the process. The bill language, which has appeared annually for several years, reflects that position. In recent years, some lawmakers have tried to push back against the assertion and to tweak the language, directing agencies to consider “the carbon benefits” of forest biomass as a renewable energy source. That proposed change appeared in both the House and Senate versions of the Interior-EPA spending bill going into negotiations on the omnibus. Scientists say the research on forest biomass defies simple declarations about what the carbon benefits are. Variables include how quickly forests grow back and how much carbon emissions occur in the harvesting, transporting and ultimately burning of wood for energy. While the release of carbon from burning woody biomass is assumed to be offset by carbon uptake during trees’ growth, the EIA said, “This is not to say that biomass energy is carbon‐neutral. Energy inputs are required in order to grow, fertilize, and harvest the feedstock and to produce and process the biomass into fuels.”

Biodiversity group says omnibus puts right whale ‘on an irreversible extinction trajectory’ - The Center for Biological Diversity on Thursday said the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending package moving through Congress will put North Atlantic right whales on the path toward an “irreversible extinction.” A provision inserted into the bill by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) would allow the U.S. lobster fishery to delay for six years new rules that would place restrictions on fishing gear that would stop the equipment from entangling and killing the endangered whales, the group said. The Senate on Thursday passed the omnibus spending package, kicking it back to the House to clear before government funding runs out at the end of Friday. Stephanie Kurose, a senior policy specialist at the Center for Biological Diversity, slammed Schumer on Thursday, saying the “needless suffering” the whales “will endure is heartbreaking.” “Extinction is a political choice, and Schumer just made it clear that he’s willing to pander to special interests over protecting these mighty giants,” Kurose said in a statement. Fewer than 350 North Atlantic Right Whales are left, including less than 100 breeding females, according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. Commercial whalers hunted the species to the brink of extinction by the 1890s. The whales, which have been listed as endangered since 1970, has never fully recovered. Entanglement in fishing nets and vessel strikes are leading causes of mortality for the species. Activists have long called for the fishing and lobster industry, particularly in Maine, to stop using rope gear because right whales can get tangled up in it. After a legal challenge, a federal judge in July ruled the Maine lobster industry must adopt new, stricter regulations by 2024. But the provision in the omnibus prevents any new federal regulations from taking effect through 2028. The senators from Maine, Susan Collins (D) and Angus King (I), authored the rider in the Senate along with Maine Democratic Reps. Chellie Pingree and Jared Golden in the House. In a joint statement this week, the congressional lawmakers said there has never been a death attributed to fishing gear, accusing “misguided environmental groups” of “seeking actions that would end lobstering in Maine.” “Without our provision, Maine’s iconic industry could be facing a complete shutdown—and the ripple effects across our state would have been widespread,” the statement reads.  

Here's What's In The 'Ugliest' Omnibus Bill Ever - This week, while Democrats still (barely) have enough power to pass it, the 117th Congress is about to rush through a 4,155-page, $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill that the WSJ Editorial Board has called the "worst in history." "This is no way to govern in a democracy, but here we are," the board writes. The final bill was quietly dropped Monday in the 'dead of night' - and by Thursday, if all goes to plan, it will get rushed through for a vote.  Overall, the bill contains $858 billion for defense - an increase of 9.7%, and $45 billion more than President Biden sought. It will, among other things, give military members a 4.6% raise and help replenish dwindling weapons stocks. $45 billion has also been earmarked for new military and economic aid for Ukraine. "What is more dangerous to the country? $1.1 Trillion in new debt or as Republican leadership likes to say, “Oh, it is a win! It is a big win. We’re getting $45 billion for the military,”" said Paul. "So which is more important? Which threatens the country more? Are we at risk of being invaded by a foreign power if we don’t put $45 billion into the military? Are we more at risk by adding to a $31 trillion debt?" There's also a symbolic $275 million cut to the IRS's annual budget... (out of $80 billion), which the GOP is doing a victory lap over. It also removes the Vice President's ability to void an election via the Electoral Count Act Reform, and clarifies that the role of the VP in the process is purely ceremonial. The omnibus bill also includes;

One reporter asked Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer how the bill was "functional," to require legislators to read a bill of that size in such a short period of time.  "How is it functional process to drop a 4,100 page bill this morning and expect a vote on it tomorrow?" asked a reporter, adding "Most of Congress hasn’t had a chance to review this."

What’s in and what’s out of Congress’ $1.7T spending bill -  The year-end spending package that Congress is rushing to pass this week does more than fund the government through September. It’s also chock full of policy provisions that affect everything from the lobster industry to TikTok to professional sports.The $1.7 trillion government funding measure is the last major must-pass bill on the legislative docket before the start of the 118th Congress in January, when divided government and a looming 2024 presidential election will make legislating even harder than it currently is. That makes the spending bill a magnet for members trying to cram in their priorities just before the holidays.There will be no shortage of political angst before the gargantuan bill, and its many policy adornments reach President Joe Biden’s desk, with federal cash set to expire at midnight on Friday. The Senate is expected to act first on the measure, starting with a procedural vote as soon as Tuesday afternoon. Lawmakers in the upper chamber must also reach a critical time agreement to vote on the bill this week. Before that, any senator can hold up the agreement in exchange for concessions or votes on amendments.Here’s a look at what’s in and what’s out of the spending plan: WHAT’S IN

  • Ukraine aid: Congressional leaders want to give the country about $45 billion to help fend off Russian attacks, exceeding Biden’s request for $37 billion.
  • TikTok ban: Legislation pushed by Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) that would bar the download of the popular app on government devices made it into the final bill. The measure originally passed the Senate unanimously last week and comes as many states have enacted similar TikTok bans on government devices, heeding broad bipartisan concerns about the Chinese-owned app and its reach in the U.S.
  • Earlier end to Covid rules: The bill includes a bipartisan deal to end a Covid-era Medicaid policy that gave states more funding and barred them from kicking people off federally funded insurance, setting a new end date of April 1, 2023, instead of July 2023.
  • Telehealth extension: Tucked in the bill is an extension of HHS rules that made telehealth more accessible during the pandemic. But the provision, which extends the flexibility through the end of 2024, falls far short of a push from some lawmakers who wanted to make that flexibility permanent.
  • Preventing another Jan. 6: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer noted earlier this month that the funding bill will include a bipartisan deal to revamp the century-old Electoral Count Act, which governs congressional certification of presidential ballots, after former President Donald Trump tested its limits on Jan. 6, 2021.
  • Lobster lifeline: Maine lawmakers successfully included a pause on new regulations they warned would cripple their state’s lobster industry. The provision delays new rules by six years, which critics argue will allow fisheries to put off actions that would prevent fishing gear from harming and even killing endangered whales.
  • Tax items on the table: Included in the bigger spending bill is a measure aimed at curbing fraudulent tax breaks reaped from land conservation deals and legislation to boost retirement savings in tax-advantaged accounts. The additions of both provisions follow uncertainty over whether there would be any tax title in the government funding bill at all.
  • An FBI compromise: A contentious dispute between Maryland and Virginia Democrats about the future location of the FBI headquarters delayed the release of the omnibus text on Monday night. Lawmakers ultimately settled on a compromise, directing the federal government to meet with representatives from both states to hear their ideas before making a final decision about where to put the building.
  • Security boost for former speakers: Language in the bill directs the Capitol Police to determine whether to extend protective details for former House speakers for a year after they leave office. The protection could be further extended, if warranted. It comes months after Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul, was severely injured during an attack in their home in San Francisco.
  • Residential security program for senators: The bill includes $2.5 million in funding for a “residential security system program” for senators. That funding comes as the U.S. Capitol Police grapple with unprecedented numbers of threats against sitting members of Congress.
  • Makeup regulatory revamp: Lawmakers included the first overhaul of how cosmetics are regulated in the U.S. since the 1930s, giving the FDA greater authority to ensure that myriad lotions and makeup products are safe for use.
  • Allowing military students to play ball: The spending package undoes a provision, recently tucked into annual defense policy legislation, that requires student athletes from military service academies to perform two years of active duty service before they can get a waiver to play professional sports. The spending bill allows student athletes to seek a waiver and defer that service.
  • Boost for NLRB: Lawmakers increased the budget for the National Labor Relations Board by $25 million for the first time in nearly a decade — a top priority for unions amid a surge in union organizing across the country. Its funding now exceeds $299 million.
  • WHAT’S OUT
  • Popular tax provisions tossed: An extension of the enhanced Child Tax Credit pushed by Democrats and a provision allowing businesses to immediately write off their research expenses, rather than over a period of five years, didn’t make the final cut.
  • Pandemic aid: Biden had wanted $9 billion to help combat the Covid pandemic and address emerging needs, but Republicans never wanted to provide any extra cash.

  • Cannabis banking legislation: The so-called SAFE Banking Act, which would give the cannabis industry increased access to financial services, remains on the cutting room floor amid opposition from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

  • Helping pregnant workers: Legislation that would expand protections for pregnant workers, called the Pregnant Workers Fairness Act, got left out of the bill after being stalled in the Senate for months despite support from groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the ACLU and the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops.
  • Energy permitting reforms: Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) hope to expedite energy projects through a permitting policy overhaul didn’t make it into annual defense policy legislation — and it’s officially out of the spending bill, too.

Elon Musk taunts Schumer, McConnell after Twitter poll shows opposition to omnibus bill: 'People have spoken' | Fox News -- Twitter owner Elon Musk taunted Senate leaders Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell Wednesday after a poll he conducted showed sharp opposition to a proposed $1.7 trillion government spending bill. "The public has spoken," Musk wrote, saying they were "overwhelmingly against" the package. In addition to voting in the Twitter survey, many users commented their disapproval and, in some instances, unbridled rage at Congress for trying to pass the massive bill. Musk’s political enemies, however, took the poll as another opportunity to mock Musk and ridicule his own disapproval for the legislation. Like any Twitter poll, the survey was not a true indicator of the public's opinion on the subject – for one, non-Americans could vote in the poll – although it's unclear whether the spending plan will get a thumbs-up in more scientific polling.

House OKs $1.7T bill with Ukraine aid, TikTok ban, military pay raises – The House approved a $1.7 trillion spending package Friday, a day after the Senate adopted the sweeping bill despite a last-minute tussle between Republicans and Democrats over southern border policies.The House vote, which provides funding of domestic and foreign programs through Sept. 30, took place only hours before the government would have run out of money and would have had to initiate a partial federal shutdown.The chamber passed the legislation largely along party lines, 225-201, with nine Republicans joining Democrats to approve the spending package. One Democrat sided with Republicans in opposing the bill.  The package now heads to President Joe Biden for his signature. On Thursday, the Senate added a list of amendments to the hefty spending package during their hours-long voting session, including legislation that provides new workplace protections for pregnant and breast-feeding workers.   The bipartisan legislation allocates $772.5 billion for non-defense discretionary programs and $858 billion in defense funding, including record amounts for domestic programs and defense priorities, according to the bill's summary. It also bans TikTok from government-issued devices, expands retirement savings options for Americans, and overhauls electoral procedures to avoid a repeat of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection. Also included in the bill is about $45 billion in additional emergency assistance to Ukraine, which Congress approved after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed a joint session of Congress.

House passes $1.7T spending bill, sending measure to Biden, averting shutdown - -- The House on Friday passed a sweeping $1.7 trillion spending bill that will keep the government from running out of money at midnight and send an additional $45 billion to Ukraine.  The measure now goes to President Joe Biden for his signature.The bill passed 225-201 with nine Republicans -- Reps. John Katko of New York, Chris Jacobs of New York, Liz Cheney of Wyoming, Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Fred Upton of Michigan, Rodney Davis of Illinois, Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington and Steve Womack of Arkansas -- supporting the bill. Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York voted 'no' and Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., voted 'present.'

Biden signs bill to keep government running while $1.7 trillion spending package is prepared President Biden signed a short-term bill Friday intended to ensure the government remains functioning ahead of the upcoming $1.7 trillion spending bill. The short-term bill postpones the deadline for funding until Dec. 30, giving the White House breathing room as Biden prepares to sign the much more expensive funding bill in the coming week. The more than 4,000-page bill will fund the government for the rest of the fiscal year and includes more than 7,200 earmarks totaling more than $15 billion. Without an extension, the US government would risk a shutdown until the package is approved. The Senate on Thursday approved the $1.7 trillion spending bill with help from more than a dozen Republican lawmakers after a fight over immigration policy nearly derailed the legislation. The U.S. House of Representatives quickly approved the bill on Friday.

US sending Patriots to Ukraine under $1.85B aid package  (AP) — The Biden administration announced Wednesday that it will provide $1.85 billion in military aid to Ukraine, rolling out funding for a Patriot missile battery as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Washington for his first known trip out of his country since Russia invaded in February. The White House announcement came just hours before Zelenskyy landed at Joint Base Andrews, just outside the capital. The package includes $1 billion in weapons and equipment from Pentagon stocks, including the Patriot battery for the first time, and $850 million in funding through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. Part of the USAI will be used to fund a satellite communications system, which likely will include the crucial SpaceX Starlink satellite network system owned by Elon Musk. “As Russia continues its brutal attacks against critical infrastructure in Ukraine, the United States welcomes President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Washington, D.C. today to underscore our enduring commitment to the people of Ukraine,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement, adding that the U.S. will be providing “critical new and additional military capabilities to help Ukraine defend itself from Russia’s ongoing brutal and unprovoked assault.” Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials have pressed Western leaders to provide more advanced weapons, including the Patriots, to help their country in its war with Russia. The Patriot would be the most advanced surface-to-air missile system the West has provided to Ukraine to help repel Russian aerial attacks. Also included in the package are two other key items. The Pentagon will send an undisclosed number of Joint Direct Attack Munitions kits, or JDAMs, to Ukraine. The U.S. also will fund satellite communications terminals and services, to shore up a potential vulnerability for Ukraine after Musk said his company could no longer afford to provide the services for free. The kits will be used to modify massive bombs by adding tail fins and precision navigation systems so that rather than being simply dropped from a fighter jet onto a target, they can be released and guided to a target. The satellite money would act as a hedge against the possibility that Musk again threatens to stop funding them. Musk shipped the first Starlink terminals to Ukraine just days after Russia invaded in February, and as of October there were more than 2,200 of the low-orbiting satellites providing broadband internet to Ukraine.

Kremlin Reacts To Patriot Missiles For Ukraine -.com In its first reaction to widespread reports that the White House is moving forward with plans to send Patriot anti-air missile defense systems to Ukraine, the Kremlin said the move will only serve to aggravate the conflict and warned against it, while Putin in new remarks teased more advanced Russian weapons to be deployed, including hypersonic missiles."Weapon supplies (by the U.S.) continue, the assortment of supplied weapons is expanding. All this, of course, leads to an aggravation of the conflict and, in fact, does not bode well for Ukraine," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. A formal White House announcement confirming that Ukraine will get Patriots is expected Wednesday while Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky is meeting with President Biden to discuss the war, and ahead of Zelensky's expected 7:30pm EST address to Congress.Ukraine sees the more advanced anti-air defenses as vital if it hopes to survive the now constant barrage of strikes targeting its national energy infrastructure, which has left millions without power amid freezing temperatures. At one point early this week, some 80% of the Kyiv region was without power, as rolling emergency blackouts continue nation-wide.The Patriot missiles could be a game-changer given they have a maximum range of some 100 miles and are capable of downing ballistic missiles. Zelensky has long demanded that the US and NATO help "close the skies" over Ukraine. Putin for his part in Wednesday statements vowed to see the military operation through until all goals are achieved in Ukraine, also pledging to continue giving the military anything it needs. Just as headlines of the White House approving Patriots for Ukraine spread internationally, he indicated readiness to deploy the hypersonic Sarmat missile to Ukraine:  He also said Russia needed to take special note of the importance of drones in the 10-month conflict and said Russia's hypersonic Sarmat missile - dubbed "Satan II" would be ready for deployment in the near future.For Kiev, Putin's new threats will only underscore the need to keep the anti-air defenses and longer range missiles flowing from the West. As a Wednesday Reuters headlines reads, Mr. Zelensky is coming to Washington seeking "weapons, weapons, and more weapons."

Ukraine's Zelenskyy to thank Congress after $65 billion in aid but also warns: ‘It is not enough’  - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to thank the U.S. Congress on Wednesday night for its $65 billion backing of Ukraine as it fends off a Russian invasion, even as he indicates that Ukraine will need billions more to defeat its foe. In a video of his meeting with Ukrainian troops this week, Zelenskyy indicated that this would be the main purpose of his Wednesday visit to Washington – to ensure American funding doesn’t dry up. "The enemy increases the number of his troops," Zelenskyy said in the video. "We will pass on gratitude from our boys to the U.S. Congress and U.S. president for their support, but it is not enough. Our boys are braver, and we need more sophisticated weapons. There is a hint here: It is not enough." And in a statement released before meeting with President Joe Biden, Zelenskyy made it clear again that Ukraine’s needs will continue well into 2023. "I am in Washington today to thank the American people, the president and the Congress for their much-needed support," Zelenskyy said Wednesday. "And also to continue cooperation to bring our victory closer." Since Russia’s attack in late February, Congress has passed several bills to provide military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and even this week it is expected to approve another $45 billion as part of a funding bill for the rest of fiscal year 2023. Continued cooperation is what could be at risk when Republicans take control of the House next year. Republican lawmakers have said they will continue to support Ukraine as it defends itself from Russia but have also indicated the money won’t flow as quickly as it has so far.

Zelenskyy comes to Washington and pulls neither punches nor asks - Making his first trip beyond Ukraine’s borders since Russia invaded, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy undertook a perilous, secret journey from the war’s front lines to Washington, D.C. He traveled first by train to Poland and then flying abroad under the cover of night to make an urgent in-person appeal Wednesday to the nation most able to continue helping his war-weary homeland. Zelenskyy’s visit was deliberately timed as the war entered a new, dangerous phase. The White House invited Zelenskyy to appear with President Joe Biden and then address a joint session of Congress. The trip was planned for less than two weeks before Republicans take control of the House, potentially endangering future assistance to Kyiv. But it was also important, senior officials said, to showcase solidarity to a wary Europe to keep pushing the continent to support Ukraine as Russia’s terrorizing attacks on civilians escalate and temperatures plummet. “Russia is using winter as a weapon: freezing people, starving people, cutting them off from one another,” Biden said. “It’s the latest example of the outrageous atrocities the Russian forces are committing against innocent Ukrainian civilians.” The Ukrainian military has surprised the world with its ability to repel Vladimir Putin’s invasion. Moscow has been dealt humiliating setbacks and the major fighting — now largely frozen in place — has been confined to the outer reaches of Ukraine. But a new wave of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s electrical grid have plunged much of the nation into darkness and left millions of war-weary residents without heat or light. The perilous conditions prompted Zelenskyy to make the trip to Washington to thank Biden for his support but also make clear the fight was far from finished. He pushed for more weapons by outlining the suffering ordinary Ukrainians face and repeatedly dwelling on parents who have lost their children to Russian bombs. And he said when the current tranche runs out, he’ll advocate once again for more. “You understand it only when the war is in your country, when somebody like these terrorists from Russia come to your houses,” Zelenskyy said through a translator at a joint news conference. “For me, a ‘just peace’ is no compromises as to the sovereignty, freedom and territorial integrity of my country [and] the payback of all damages inflicted by Russia’s aggression,” Zelenskyy said. “You know how many parents lost their sons and daughters on the front lines? So what is just peace for them?” Privately, the issue of a peace process has been a thorny one for U.S. officials. There is an acknowledgment that domestic support for the war can’t go on indefinitely absent tangible steps to try and end the conflict diplomatically. But there is also acknowledgment that Ukraine is faring far better than expected. The public line is any deal will be determined and led by the Ukrainians. Still, for the past several weeks, U.S. senior officials have discussed with European and Ukrainian counterparts a 10-point proposal Zelenskyy had outlined as conditions for a peace deal. Among the discussions has been whether such a proposal is possible to broach this winter. There have also been conversations with Ukrainians about what a potential halt in hostilities would look like. But no one has received any real indication that Russia is serious about the proposal, which among other things would require all Russian troops to leave Ukraine. During his trip to D.C., Zelenskyy paid the mildest of lip service to it.

Zelenskyy delivers impassioned plea to Congress, asking for more --  In an emotional speech to Congress Wednesday night that party leaders compared to the wartime pleas of World War II, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged lawmakers to continue providing weapons and aid to help Ukraine fend off Russia through the winter and beyond. “You can speed up our victory. I know it,” Zelenskyy said in the address, dressed in his battle fatigues and combat boots on the dais in the House chamber. “Let the world see that the United States are here.” Throughout his roughly 20-minute speech delivered entirely in English, the Ukrainian president relayed his case for continual support, underscoring his gratefulness for that which has been provided — while saying that it’s not nearly enough. “Your support is crucial, not just to stand in such a fight, but to get to the turning point to win on the battlefield,” he said, making his case directly to Washington in his first foreign trip since the invasion. “We have artillery, yes. We have it. Is it enough? Quite honestly, not really.” And judging by the sound of thunderous applause echoing throughout the House chamber, that message was mostly received. Hundreds of lawmakers packed the aisles with all the pomp and circumstance, and even the selfies, of a State of the Union address, many decked in royal blue and yellow blazers and scarves to honor Ukraine. One member, Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.), draped the nation’s flag over her seat, holding it up with the help of other members as Zelensky entered the chamber. The real test for Zelenskyy, however, sat on the other side of the chamber, where several GOP skeptics — whose party will soon hold House majority — sat stoically throughout the speech, even as their colleagues stood and applauded. “I don’t think it changed the hearts and minds of anybody,” said Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), the incoming Republican Study Committee chair, moments after the speech. “I think those who are going to just wholeheartedly support Ukraine are gonna continue to do it. People like me, we are gonna continue to stay in the realm of, ‘We got to protect this nation first.’”

Zelenskyy’s plea for more American aid to 'speed up victory' in unwinnable war -Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has done it again. During an historic visit to Washington, amid the ferocious war waged by Putin’s Russia on his country, the Ukrainian leader delivered another stellar performance, pleading for more security assistance from Washington to "speed up our victory" over tyrannical Russia. A savvy politician and former actor, Zelenskyy did what he thought he had to do in order persuade Americans to continue opening their hearts and pocketbooks. His country is being devastated and his people are dying by the thousands under Russia’s relentless assault. And Zelenskyy believes that additional billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars will help him expel the Russians and secure victory. He believes he is justified in using every possible tool in his toolbox, including his talents as a performer. This time, however, he employed a toned down and calibrated approach. There was no heart-tugging video with images of maternity hospitals blown up by Russian missile strikes or graphic footage of dead or wounded women and children, as we saw during his virtual appearance before Congress in March. No sobbing interpreters translating Zelenskyy's graphic descriptions of the deaths of children and the elderly. No lecturing. Zelenskyy stressed the usual theme: that Ukraine is fighting for freedom and democracy, that his country will secure victory, and that U.S. "financial assistance is critically important" to kick out the Russian occupiers from his land. He said the battle in Ukraine was not only for its territory but also for "another part of Europe" and claimed that not only Ukrainian but also American democracy was at stake. Zelenskyy also issued a gentle warning: "It is just a matter of time when they [the Russians] will strike against your other allies, if we do not stop them now." Let’s take a clinical look at these claims. Ukraine remains one of the most corrupt places in the world, ranking 123rd out of the 180 countries on the corruption scale, only slightly better than the legendarily corrupt Russia, which is 139th. Corruption is one of the reasons that Ukraine hasn’t qualified for E.U. and NATO memberships.  The claim by Washington and Kyiv politicians that Russia would attack a NATO country – which would trigger the collective defense clause – is nonsensical. The Russian army is struggling to secure a clear military victory over a much smaller opponent, having exhibited incredible tactical incompetence in this war. How on earth would it go against a NATO nation or even Sweden or Finland? Putin is not suicidal. Finally, even the Pentagon has recently acknowledged what was clear to serious analysts from the very start – this war is unwinnable in military terms. U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Mark Milley admitted to reporters in November that the "probability of Ukrainian military victory happening anytime soon is not high."

House Committee Wraps Up Historic Investigation Into Oil Industry - Congressional investigators released a new set of documents that underscored the oil and gas industry’s ongoing attempts to block climate policies and confuse the public about their long-term investments in fossil fuels. The latest tranche of documents caps off a nearly two-year investigation that appears set to come to an end with Republicans taking control of the House of Representatives in January. On December 9, the U.S. House Oversight and Reform Committee published its latest set of documents as part of its ongoing investigation into the oil industry’s history of climate denial and obfuscation. The documents offer more evidence showing that the industry’s “greenwashing” continues up to the present day. “They’re basically saying, ‘we’re going to increase production, we’re going to increase emissions, but we’re also going to be able to claim being this clean tech company, this green company, because we can take some symbolic actions that make it look like we’re in the climate fight,’” Rep. Ro Khanna, (D-CA), a member of the committee, told NBC News.“The cynicism was breathtaking, and unfortunately, it was quite successful,” he said, “It’s been a successful PR strategy.” The framing over the role of methane gas offers one glaring example. For years, the industry and its supporters have claimed that methane gas serves as a “bridge fuel” due to its perceived climate benefit over burning coal. That claim has not been backed up by the science, which increasingly shows that methane leaks can erase the upside of gas compared to coal. But even if true, internal communications show that despite their external claims, oil executives view gas not as a temporary “bridge,” but as something more permanent.  Another revelation points to the oil industry’s efforts to cultivate influence through its financial support for Ivy League universities. In a 2019 email from former BP vice president Bob Stout, in which he discusses BP’s efforts at “nurturing” its relationship with Princeton University, he admits that ties with major American universities is part of a strategy of burnishing the industry’s image and also enhancing its influence.DeSmog has previously reported on the oil industry’s attempts to push its agenda through Ivy League universities. And a podcast collaboration between Drilled and Earther explored how oil companies have long been influencing American education for corporate benefit, from elementary schools to universities like Harvard. The latest release adds even more explicit evidence of an intentional strategy.

New US Bill Could Halt Sale Of 140Mn Barrels Of SPR Crude - A new bipartisan spending bill could cancel the congressional mandates to sell 140 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the next five years. The $1.7 trillion bill would cancel most congressionally mandated crude sales through fiscal year 2027. The change would align with the Presidents’ plan to begin refilling the SPR next year, replacing some of the 180 million barrels of crude Biden sold this year through emergency sales in response to Russia's war in Ukraine. The bill will redirect around $10.4 billion generated from the emergency sales to offset the estimated future revenue from the crude sales that would be canceled. It would also avoid refilling the SPR and selling it at the same time just because of congressional mandates. The US Congress in prior years ordered the sale of 147 million barrels of crude from the SPR in fiscal years 2024-27 to raise revenue for debt reduction, infrastructure, and other priorities. The new bill would cancel all those sales, except for 7 million barrels that the US would sell in fiscal years 2026-27. The emergency drawdown of 180 million barrels of crude from the SPR was as a good deal for taxpayers as it brought down fuel prices this year. The SPR crude barrel was sold at an average price of $96 per barrel. The new spending bill shows the crude sales being canceled only if needed to raise $74.25 per barrel to comply with budgetary rules, indicating a paper profit of $22 per barrel from the emergency sales. It is worth noting that the bill would not cancel a congressionally mandated sale of 26 million barrel of SPR crude that is required to occur by the end of this fiscal year on September 30. The measure would also keep intact previously enacted sales of 92.6 million barrels of SPR crude scheduled for fiscal years 2028-31. The partial refilling of the SPR was started last week by soliciting bids for the fixed-price purchase of 3 million barrels of sour crude, for delivery in February. The administration said it may buy up to 60 million barrels of crude with fixed price contracts at a targeted price of $67-72 per barrel, which it says will give the US producers more certainty now to invest in domestic production. Congress needs to pass the omnibus spending bill by today (Friday) to prevent a partial US government shutdown.

Biden administration set to start refilling oil reserve - The Biden administration is planning to begin refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a senior administration official said Friday, marking the end to the massive supply releases that the White House ordered to tame the sharp price spikes earlier this year.  President Joe Biden had ordered the Energy Department to begin releases from the reserve last year, and he sharply ramped up those sales after Russia invaded Ukraine in February — sending crude oil prices soaring and driving up gasoline to record levels. Total releases from the reserve this year totaled more than 211 million barrels, putting the inventories at their lowest levels since 1984.        Republicans had accused Biden of misusing the SPR for political purposes, but voters backed the measures by a clear majority, and retail gasoline prices retreated sharply as crude oil markets calmed. U.S. benchmark WTI crude futures jumped nearly $2 on the announcement and were trading at $75 per barrel early Friday afternoon. That’s well below the peak of over $120 a barrel earlier this year.  The Energy Department will start with an initial request for 3 million barrels, asking companies for the barrels to be delivered in February, the administration official said on a call with reporters. Companies participating in the process must submit their offers by Dec. 28 and will offer oil at a fixed price.“There’s still quite a bit of volatility in the system,” the official said. “When we think the price is in the range where we think it’s a good deal for taxpayers and good for the market, we will buy. The buyback will take months, it will take years.”The administration had announced in October it would set up a process to purchase oil from companies to refill the SPR at a price of $67 to $72 a barrel.The department will also offer 2 million barrels for exchange to fuel producers looking to make up supply lost because of the Keystone pipeline transporting crude from Canada to refineries in the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast going offline after a spill last week, the official said.

Joe Biden, Oil Trader of the Year 2022? - Of all people, Joe's got the magic touch with petroleum? The endless number of foiled speculators attests to the difficulty of realizing the old adage about how to make money--buy low, sell high. Let's face it: ever-changing markets often result in us doing quite the opposite, and not making money in the process. Now, whenever we are asked to think about who are the least savvy market participants, we often identify governments--or more specifically, government officials. Not being keen market watchers with limited skin in the game--it's taxpayer money they are officially dealing with, not theirs--this sentiment is understandable.  Well lo and behold: Quartz is now touting President Joe Biden's timely release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as the "oil trade of the year." In retrospect, his release at the near-top of the oil market a few months ago helped ease oil prices. Now that oil prices have come down quite a bit, the SPR is now being refilled. Yes, Biden is buying low after selling high: Instead, it appears the US government made the oil trade of the year: Releasing 180 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve between March and the end of this year in an effort to blunt the effect of rising prices, the US government appears to have made about $4 billion, as prices have fallen dramatically over the course of the year.Selling when crude oil prices were high, the US captured billions in value. By one widely-used measure, the price of crude oil in Texas peaked at about $124 a barrel in March, and the average price during the SPR sales period was about $96; today that oil costs just $73 per barrel. These are paper profits, to be sure: The US is still aiming to refill the reserve, and prices may rise as it does so. On Dec. 16, the Department of Energy put out a request to purchase 3 million new barrels of crude, after releasing about 200 million barrels in 2022. There are currently about 382 million barrels still in reserve. His genial manner has caused Joe Biden to be underestimated throughout his life. Can he now be called a market player as well in his eighth decade? T. Boone Pickens, eat your heart out.

Biden Admin Asks Supreme Court To Delay End Of Title 42 Border Policy Until After Christmas | The Biden administration asked the U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday to allow the pandemic-era Title 42 border policy to briefly remain in place for operational reasons until after Christmas. This comes after the Supreme Court agreed on Monday to the emergency request of 19 Republican-led states to reverse the lower court’s decision to end Title 42, which was set to happen on Wednesday. The stay is administrative and not based on the merits of the case. Chief Justice John Roberts, a former President George W. Bush appointee, gave the Biden administration until 5 p.m. Tuesday to respond to the emergency application.  The Title 42 emergency public health policy was invoked in March 2020, allowing border agents to block asylum claims at U.S. borders on the grounds of keeping contagious diseases out of the United States amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) argued in a court filing on Tuesday (pdf) that the Title 42 policy is “now-obsolete.” DHS contended that the Republican-led states want the court to compel the government to keep relying on Title 42 “as the Nation’s de facto immigration policy.”Once the Title 42 policy ends, federal officials acknowledged that “unlawful border crossings” and “temporary disruptions” are likely to increase.

US Supreme Court intervenes to keep Title 42 anti-migrant policy in place - Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court John Roberts ordered on Monday an extension of the emergency public health restrictions put in place during the Trump administration for mass expulsion of immigrants seeking asylum in the US at the southern border.  In a signed one-page order known as an administrative stay, Judge Roberts temporarily overruled the November 22, 2022 decision of the US District Court for the District of Columbia that would have forced an end to the Trump-era Title 42 anti-immigrant policy as of 12:01 a.m. Wednesday morning. While Roberts’ order was procedural and officially presented as necessary for the Supreme Court to have time to consider the matter, immigration experts have been estimating that the arrival of migrants at the US-Mexico border could surge from 2,500 to over 18,000 per day once the rule is lifted. The Supreme Court Chief Justice’s order was prompted by an application for an emergency stay filed by 19 Republican-led states which said that maintaining Title 42 was necessary to prevent the increase in the numbers crossing the US southern border. The application stated that “failure to grant the stay will cause a crisis of unprecedented proportions” because the number of “daily illegal crossings may more than double.” The provisions of Title 42, a public health law passed in 1944, were invoked by then-President Trump in March 2020 as legal justification for escalating his anti-immigrant policies on the pretext that asylum seekers could be infected with COVID-19. These measures, of course, were implemented while the Trump administration was doing everything possible to block public health measures from being taken within the US to stop the spread of the highly contagious and deadly virus that has now killed more than 1.1 million Americans. In issuing the emergency stay, Chief Justice Roberts gave both sides until 5:00 p.m. Tuesday to present arguments for or against the continuation of Title 42. For its part, the Biden administration argued on Tuesday evening against Title 42, which it has been doing since taking office, while at the same utilizing it to deport large numbers of immigrants either back to their country of origin or back across the border into Mexico. Meanwhile, US Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar, arguing on behalf of the White House, essentially agreed with the Republicans and said that “the end of the Title 42 orders will likely lead to disruption and a temporary increase in unlawful border crossings,” adding that the solution to the problem “cannot be to extend indefinitely a public-health measure that all now acknowledge has outlived its public-health justification.” In other words, the Democrats in the White House agree with the Republicans on stopping the entry of immigrants into the country, while acknowledging that the pretense of taking action against asylum seekers to stop the spread of COVID-19 has grown quite thin, given President Biden’s declaration that the pandemic is over, even as the virus kills more than 400 Americans every day.Even so, the Biden administration argued in its filing on Tuesday that if the court denies the states’ request before Friday, it should leave the short-term stay of Title 42 in effect until at least December 27. The White House brief said, “That brief continuation would allow the government to again prepare for a full return to operations.” In other words, the Biden administration is claiming it is against Title 42 while at the same arguing legally in favor of keeping it in place.

Migrants face freezing Christmas at U.S.-Mexico border (Reuters) - Hundreds of migrants prepared to camp in the cold at Mexico's northern border over Christmas, hoping for a swift reversal in U.S. migration restrictions as they endure the bite of a winter storm ravaging the United States. After the U.S. Supreme Court this week ruled that restrictions known as Title 42 could stay in place temporarily, many migrants are facing a Christmas weekend of what Mexico's weather service called a "mass of arctic air." "I'm staying here, where else can I go?" said Walmix Juin, a 32-year-old Haitian migrant preparing for the weekend in a flimsy tent in the city of Reynosa, across the border from McAllen, Texas. "I never thought I would spend a Christmas like this." Temperatures in the border cities of Matamoros and Reynosa, where several thousand people are camping outside or in bare-bones shelters, are expected to hover around freezing on Saturday and only slightly improve on Sunday. Brazilian anti-bomb police carry out operation near capital's airport Further west in Ciudad Juarez, where hundreds of migrants have been lining up to seek asylum at the border with El Paso, Texas, temperatures are forecast to drop to minus six degrees Celsius (21 degrees Fahrenheit). Many have been sleeping in the streets. Officials have provided more space in shelters in recent days, but some migrants are wary. Wearing a baseball hat and jacket zipped to the chin, 29-year-old Venezuelan Antony Rodriguez has tried to stay warm in Matamoros by huddling under blankets in a tent with five relatives, he showed in a video shared with Reuters. After an arduous trek across Central America and Mexico, Rodriguez said he turned down the offer of a shelter because he feared authorities would bus them south. "We feel they'll send us back," he said. Another Venezuelan in Matamoros, Giovanny Castellanos, said he was camping out in a tent on the border, wrapped up in blankets, to keep abreast of developments. "If you go to shelter you're further from here where the real information is," the 32-year-old said. Title 42 allows the United States to return migrants to Mexico or certain countries without a chance to request asylum. It had been due to end on Dec. 21 before the court ruling. Without clarity on when it will finish, some officials worry their cities could be overwhelmed if more migrants turn up.

Rep. Jim Jordan responds after Biden says he will hire more Dreamers to curb inflation: 'Hire Americans'  - The Biden administration is looking to employ more migrants in the coming year to help bolster the economy, but a Republican lawmaker suggested President Biden look at hiring another group of people first: Americans. While unemployment continues to fall in the post-pandemic months, millions of Americans remain unemployed, and Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, took to Twitter Tuesday to call on President Biden and senior administration officials to consider first putting them to work. "Why not just hire AMERICANS looking for jobs?" the Ohio Republican asked in a tweet, responding to a report of the Biden administration’s new plan. On Tuesday, Axios reported President Biden was looking to tackle immigration reform in the coming year and to negotiate with a Republican majority in the House of Representatives. His plan, according to the report, will include the hiring of more so-called "Dreamers," or "lawfully present" recipients of the Deferred Action on Childhood Arrivals program or Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors Act. These people are eligible for work authorization in the U.S. as they wait for permanent residency. According to the report, the Biden administration is looking to tackle two problems with one solution: As up to 14,000 migrants are expected to cross the border daily when Title 42 ends, the Biden administration is looking to get them into the workforce to lower inflation. Immigration reform is "harder in the divided Congress, but it's so clearly necessary in light of what we're seeing in the job market," Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said in a statement to Axios. "The thing that's underpinning inflation still — that’s driving inflation still — is this tight labor market." "Immigration is a lever," she added. "We're down a million immigrants a year. That's a workforce that we need."

U.S. State Dept says toll of COVID in China a concern for the world (Reuters) - The United States hopes that China can address the current COVID-19 outbreak as the toll of the virus is a global concern due to the size of the Chinese economy, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on Monday. "The toll of the virus is of concern to the rest of the world given the size of China's GDP, given the size of China's economy," Price told a daily briefing at the State Department. "It's not only good for China to be in a stronger position vis-a-vis COVID but it's good for the rest of the world as well," Price said. He added that anytime the virus is spreading it has the potential to mutate and pose a threat everywhere. "We've seen that over the course of many different permutations of this virus and certainly another reason why we are so focused on helping countries around the world address COVID," he said. China reported its first COVID-related deaths in weeks on Monday amid rising doubts over whether the official count was capturing the full toll of a disease that is ripping through cities after the government relaxed strict anti-virus controls. Monday's two deaths were the first to be reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) since Dec. 3, days before Beijing announced that it was lifting curbs which had largely kept the virus in check for three years but triggered widespread protests last month. The low number of deaths since curbs were lifted on Dec. 7 is inconsistent with the experience of other countries after similar moves. Officially China has suffered just 5,237 COVID-related deaths during the pandemic, including the latest two fatalities, a tiny fraction of its 1.4 billion population.

Why the Senate did not reinstate military members who refused the COVID-19 vaccine - Senate floor debate on Thursday revealed why the body voted 56-40 to reject Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson’s amendment to reinstate military members discharged for declining the COVID-19 vaccine. Last week, the Senate passed the National Defense Authorization Act for 2023 that included instruction to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to rescind his COVID-19 vaccine mandate for service members. President Joe Biden is expected to sign the bill, which will effectively end the vaccine mandate going forward, but does not address the thousands of military members who were discharged for refusing the order to get the vaccine. “People serving in our military are the finest among us. Over 8,000 were terminated because they refused to get this experimental vaccine,” Johnson said on the Senate floor before urging his colleagues to vote in favor of the amendment. Johnson’s amendment, supported by all but four Republican senators, would have reinstated service members who were discharged solely for refusing the vaccine. It also would have provided back pay and adjusted their separation status to an honorable discharge, and would have prohibited the military from issuing future vaccine mandates without the express authorization of Congress. However, Democratic Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island objected to the amendment arguing that it would undermine future discipline and order in the military. “What message do we send if we pass this bill?,” Reed said. “What we are telling soldiers is: If you disagree, don’t follow the order and just lobby Congress. … They will restore everything, so orders are just sort of a suggestion. They are not.” Reed defended Austin’s order that all military personnel be vaccinated against COVID-19. It was issued in August 2021, which “at that point, it was an approved FDA pharmaceutical. It is a legally binding order,” Reed said. “In the U.S. military, a lawful order is not a suggestion; it is a command,” he said. Johnson responded arguing against the legality of Austin’s order: “It is not a lawful order because the executive order required that the vaccine be fully FDA-approved.”

Florida high court OKs grand jury probe of COVID-19 vaccines - -- The Florida Supreme Court will convene a grand jury at Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’ request to investigate any wrongdoing with respect to the COVID-19 vaccines, the court announced Thursday. The Republican governor, who is often mentioned as a possible presidential candidate in 2024, earlier this month called for the investigation. He suggested it would be in part aimed to jog loose more information from pharmaceutical companies about the vaccines and potential side effects. Vaccine studies funded by pharmaceutical companies that developed COVID-19 vaccines have been published in peer-reviewed journals such as the New England Journal of Medicine, and government panels reviewed data on the safety and effectiveness of the shots before approving them for use. DeSantis' request argues that pharmaceutical companies had a financial interest in creating a climate in which people believed that getting a coronavirus vaccine would ensure they couldn’t spread the virus to others. Statewide grand juries, usually comprised of 18 people, can investigate criminal activity and issue indictments but also examine systemic problems in Florida and make recommendations. Recent panels have tackled immigration issues and school safety. The grand jury will meet for one year.

With “Immunity Debt,” Democrats are Having their Ivermectin Moment -  - If you’re a parent, you’re no doubt aware of the surging flu, RSV, COVID, HFM, Strep, scarlet fever, impetigo, every-other-infection-under-the-sun cases. A common mommy-blogger topic has been “Gee, my kids keep getting sick every time I send them back to school,” and “Gosh it sure is rough having my kids home constantly— motherhood, amiright??” Over at Vox, an article was published today bemoaning children’s constant, relentless illness- but the tone of the piece hardly reflected the urgency of the crisis. Instead, Vox treated the concurrent viral surges as an annoyance likely arising from kids not having been as sick in recent years. Handwashing, not masking, was encouraged in the article.  This cutesy spin on an extremely concerning, emerging public health crisis serves to normalize what is objectively abnormal. It also shifts attention from the growing body of studies which demonstrate post-COVID immune system damage. Your children being constantly sick should be raising red flags. Your children returning home from daycare with seven- yes seven, as one mother recently sighed on twitter- concurrent viral infections, is not normal (as the doctor treating the child pointed out when he stated he’d “never seen that before”). 19 children dead of strep throat in the UK in a matter of weeks- not normal. 6 children dead of the flu in British Columbia in November alone- information they first attempted to hide from the public- far outside the 1-2 annual deaths seen in the province, with the season just getting started. 45-hour ER wait times in Ontario- not normal. Pediatric hospitals around the country setting up overflow tents- not normal. Since Biden’s inauguration and the vaccine rollout, liberals have engaged in a “post-pandemic” cosplay that has no basis in reality. Even deaths in the acute phase, where the vaccine arguably made the most difference, continue to roll in - 400,000 died under Trump in ten months or, about 40,000 per month. Meanwhile, nearly 700,000 have died under Biden in 22 months, or (rounding down) about 30,000 per month. But acute deaths - while they, too, were never eliminated, are hardly the only way COVID maims and kills. The long-term effects of infection are just now coming into focus, and what we know does not bode well for continual reinfection. Democrats, like the MAGA Republicans before them, are hellbent on excusing their party leaders and obfuscating the ongoing nature of this crisis. Over at The Tyee, Andrew Nikiforuk covered what we know about T-cell dysregulation in COVID and post-COVID patients better than I ever could, and I highly encourage you to check out his deep-dive article, “What If COVID Reinfections Wear Down Our Immunity?” But while even the possibility of T-cell harm on a population level should be making front-page news, Democrats and their media allies have decided instead to swallow wholesale a pseudo-scientific supposition first invented in 2021: immunity debt. Immunity debt is a convenient explanation for a lot of reasons. First, it allows us to preserve our national delusion that COVID ended and is no longer a problem. Second, it allows us to continue living our best, unmasked lives like the MAGA crowd circa 2020. Explanations that require us to do nothing, nor face the reality that we mass-infected millions of children with not one single sole clue how they might be harmed by this novel pathogen in the long-term are psychologically appealing for obvious reasons. Like the ivermectin-hoarding right-wingers before them, Democrats swallowed “immunity debt” without needing to see a single study confirming its existence (and good thing too, since no such studies exist).“Immunity debt” is a simple concept that posits that, since children were well-protected from infection during the 2020-2021 seasons, they are “catching up” on all the illnesses they missed over the last two years. In order to accommodate the surging severity of these disease outbreaks (seen in hospitalization numbers), immunity debt pushers also believe that not getting the flu for a year or two will harm your immune system.

A Christmas Parable - Clusterfuck Nation by James Howard Kunstler - As the Yule log burns down, and the trivialities of the season melt into air, the nation might ask itself how the authorities who run things went to war against the citizens of this land. I will tell you and it will probably make you angry: It started when the women of the professional and managerial class watched their avatar, Hillary Clinton, lose the 2016 election against a man who seemed the quintessence of everything they hated about Daddydom.  Donald Trump, flawed to perfection, wrecked the chance of the amalgamated successful women of America to run the national household. Out came the pussy-hats, the Wiccans, and the celebrities threatening to “blow up the White House.” Out came a savage animus against men generally, and a campaign to feminize them in retaliation — and then punish them for objecting to it. Up rose a social movement, Wokery, that had the earmarks of a histrionic religious mania, with Satanic overtones. Up rose the demons, the Antifa louts, the BLM arsonists, the drag queens. Thus unrolled a national psychodrama that continues to spool out as every system, every business, every institution in our country wobbles and flies apart now. The men embedded in the professional and managerial class tried in 2016 to chivalrously protect their womens’ avatar and her steadfast followers and, failing ignobly that grim November day, then turned to actually attack their adversary, Donald Trump, with the explicit intent to destroy him by all means necessary. In the years-long process, they devolved into criminality, and in so doing they entered a vicious cycle of lying about everything they did to escape the consequences of their ostensible exercise in gallantry. In effect, the people running things went from a war against a particular person to a war against reality and its twin sister, truth. Now they are deeply invested in unreality and untruth to the point where they have forgotten how this whole thing started and all they can do is desperately patch the dike they had to construct against a deluge of information composed of truth and reality coming at them like a tsunami rolling across the sea. The harder they work at this futile task of defense, the more absurd they make themselves, leading to ridicule, humiliation, and, finally condemnation in whatever remains of the legal arena, where their deeds will finally be judged.

Rooting out wrongdoing in PPP loans | American Banker -- There's that saying about roads and good intentions, and the Paycheck Protection Program is perhaps one of the best examples of this.  In the early days of the country's grappling with COVID-19, businesses deemed nonessential closed their doors and Americans were encouraged to stay home. Those steps sent the unemployment rate skyrocketing. Congress acted quickly to try and ensure that as many people kept receiving a paycheck as possible. Thus, the CARES Act was born, and within that piece of legislation was the PPP, which was administered by the Small Business Administration. Business owners could apply for PPP loans and use those funds to continue to pay their employees, even if they had to shutter their doors. The loans could be forgiven if the business owners followed certain guidelines. Roughly 11.5 million loans were made for more than $790 billion in just a matter of months. In that respect, the program could be considered a success. It got an incredible amount of money into the pockets of millions of Americans in an unheard amount of time. However, the rollout of the program was also chaotic, and with so much money being handed out with so little oversight, PPP loans proved attractive to fraudsters. Now the initial success of the program is being overshadowed by headlines highlighting the millions — likely billions — lost to fraud. Although a total is still unknown, some estimates put the total fraud at up to 15% of the loans made. Here is a look at some of the developments related to PPP fraud so far and the potential long-term effects.

Meet the Grinch Stealing Social Security, the Future of Gen Y And Z – interview by Lynn Parramore - Social Security is your future. And that future could come sooner than you think.Conversations about the program often pit younger workers against retirees, but Social Security is really an intergenerational compact that boosts the well-being of Americans of all ages — that’s one of the reasons the program is so cherished.One in five Americans receives a Social Security benefit today, and about one in three of these aren’t retired. Social Security protects young workers and their families if they become disabled, and it provides benefits to the survivors of deceased workers, including their kids. Studies show that a 20-year-old worker has a one in three chance of qualifying for disability benefits before reaching retirement age.Today’s seniors rely on Social Security for most of their income – and younger generations without traditional pensions will need the program even more. The situation is dire: we already know that the total wealth of Millennials is lower than that of their parents and grandparents at the same age. Social Security protects the health and dignity of younger folks down the road – it’s the only guaranteed source of retirement income that isn’t subject to the vagaries of investment risk or financial market fluctuations.Yet threats to the program are coming fast and furious, from calls to cut benefits by changing how cost-of-living adjustments are calculated to schemes to raise the retirement age (which already happened in 1983 under Reagan).There’s one threat that gets far less attention, which has been impacting American workers since the 1970s: wages that just don’t keep up, despite increased productivity. Social Security was designed for wages that rise with inflation – but that’s not happening. In an interview with the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Eric Laursen, author of The People’s Pension: The Struggle to Defend Social Security Since Reagan, breaks down how the program works, why wage stagnation represents a mounting threat, and what can be done to strengthen and update the program for the 21stcentury.

McConnell calls out 'diminished' Trump, vows not to bow to his candidates in 2024Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell deferred to former President Donald Trump’s handpicked candidates in competitive midterm races, culminating in jarring defeats and a larger Democratic majority that bucked the odds. He promises not to let that happen again, insisting he will “actively look for quality candidates” to promote in the 2024 primaries. In a rare and pointed criticism of the former president, who’s seeking a comeback in two years, McConnell said Trump’s power is on the wane and called on him to back off Senate primaries. “Here’s what I think has changed: I think the former president’s political clout has diminished,” McConnell told NBC News on Wednesday in a wide-ranging interview in his Capitol Hill office. The diminished standing has made McConnell — and by extension his allies, like the deep-pocketed Senate Leadership Fund super PAC — “less inclined to accept cards that may be dealt to us,” he said. “We can do a better job with less potential interference,” he said. “The former president may have other things to do.” McConnell also blamed Trump for tarnishing the party’s image among crucial independent and swing voters, who rejected GOP Senate contenders in the states that decided the majority. He said that the party underperformed in “every state” — including the red state of Ohio, which Republicans narrowly won — and that its performance was “fatal” in Arizona, New Hampshire and Georgia. “We lost support that we needed among independents and moderate Republicans, primarily related to the view they had of us as a party — largely made by the former president — that we were sort of nasty and tended toward chaos,” McConnell said. “And oddly enough, even though that subset of voters did not approve of President Biden, they didn’t have enough confidence in us in several instances to give us the majority we needed.”

Kari Lake calls for imprisoning Maricopa County election officials -   Defeated Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake called for Maricopa County election officials to be “locked up” on Sunday as Lake gears up to contest her opponent’s certified victory in court hearings this week. Speaking to a crowd of young conservatives at Turning Point USA’s America Fest, Lake discussed her election contest at length, repeating unproven allegations about both the 2020 presidential election and Gov.-elect Katie Hobbs’s (D) victory last month.“These people are crooks, they need to be locked up,” Lake said of Maricopa County election officials, after listing off a series of largely disproven claims about election fraud.Maricopa County, Arizona’s most populous jurisdiction that includes Phoenix, has become an epicenter for allegations of voter disenfranchisement after some Election Day vote centers experienced printer malfunctions.  Election officials acknowledged the issues and insisted affected voters could use one of multiple backup options.But Lake and others in the GOP have claimed the issues effectively amounted to voter disenfranchisement, noting that Election Day ballots in the state favor Republicans.Lake on Sunday compared her challenge to the Founding Fathers fighting against British tyranny, repeatedly naming Benjamin Franklin and others as she said their blood is “coursing through our veins.”“They were fed up with tyrants, and they weren’t going to take it anymore,” Lake said. “I think we’re right there, right now, aren’t we?”

The Jan. 6 panel will take up criminal referrals against Trump : NPR - The House select committee investigating the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 is holding what's likely to be its final public meeting on Monday, wrapping up its year-and-a-half-long inquiry.The panel will vote on criminal referrals against former President Donald Trump on at least three charges: insurrection, obstruction of an official proceeding of Congress and conspiracy to defraud the United States, according to a source familiar with the committee's plans but not authorized to speak publicly. Insurrection is rarely prosecuted as a criminal charge.Referrals do not carry any legal weight or compel the Justice Department to act. The committee could also release the full report of its investigation on Monday. The appendices and transcripts tied to the more than 1,000 witnesses interviewed could be released on Wednesday.This comes after a series of public hearings, several of which were held in primetime, in which the committee made the case that Trump was the central player in a scheme to overturn the will of voters, prevent the peaceful transition of power, and remain in office."[Trump] tried to take away the voice of the American people in choosing their president and replace the will of the voters with his will to remain in power," Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., said in an October hearing. "He is the one person at the center of the story of what happened on Jan. 6." This is the culmination of a lengthy investigation into the attack on Jan. 6. The committee is also expected to provide its assessment of some of the weaknesses in the electoral system, which members argued enabled Trump and his allies to go as far as they did in their attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. The panel will make policy recommendations aimed at better protecting democratic institutions and processes, including reforming the Electoral Count Act. The select committee will dissolve at the end of the current Congress. Several members of the panel will not return to the House in 2023. They are: Republican Reps. Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Adam Kinzinger of Illinois and Democratic Reps. Elaine Luria of Virginia and Stephanie Murphy of Florida.

Liz Cheney's mission on Jan. 6 committee: Keep Donald Trump out of the White House - Rep. Liz Cheney will make a last high-profile stand against Donald Trump when the House Jan. 6 committee holds its final public meeting Monday -- as sources say it's preparing to recommend the first-ever criminal charges against a former president.It's cost the Wyoming Republican her political career to take on Trump, but she's said she has no regrets -- making the case she has a higher mission: to keep him from ever regaining the White House. After voting to impeach Trump, and then accepting an invitation to serve on the select committee, she lost her No. 3 House GOP leadership position and ultimately, her congressional seat.But in doing so, she also won unlikely supporters as she exposed what she called Trump's seven-point plan to steal the election and admonished her Republican colleagues who, she said, lacked the courage to do the same."In our country, we don't swear an oath to an individual, or a political party. We take our oath to defend the United States Constitution -- and that oath must mean something," Cheney said to open the first prime-time public hearing in June. "Tonight, I say this to my Republican colleagues who are defending the indefensible: There will come a day when Donald Trump is gone, but your dishonor will remain.""The sacred obligation to defend this peaceful transfer of power has been honored by every American president -- except one," she added. "As Americans, we all have a duty to ensure what happened on Jan. 6 never happens again, to set aside partisan battles to stand together to perpetuate and preserve our great republic."

Trump calls Jan. 6 panel members ‘Thugs and Scoundrels’ ahead of Monday hearing | The Hill - Former President Trump on Sunday slammed lawmakers on the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, calling them “Thugs and Scoundrels” as the panel prepares for a final public hearing and report this week. The panel has also expected to issue symbolic criminal referrals on Monday, with multiple members arguing there is plenty of evidence that Trump is guilty of crimes. “Republicans and Patriots all over the land must stand strong and united against the Thugs and Scoundrels of the Unselect Committee,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “It will be a dark period in American history, but with darkness comes light!!!” The House panel, which investigated Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election for more than a year, will hold a final public hearing on Monday before releasing a report Wednesday on what led up to the Jan. 6 attack. Its criminal referrals would not be binding but could increase pressure on the the Department of Justice (DOJ) to indict Trump or others in his orbit. Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a special counsel last month to oversee the ongoing probe into the role of Trump and his allies in the Capitol attack. Trump, who has repeatedly called the House probe a witch hunt, did not specifically reference the expected criminal referrals or final report in a series of Truth Social posts on Sunday, attacking the committee and its mostly Democratic members. “These thugs spied on my campaign!” the former president wrote in all caps. “The Unselect Committee of political hacks are the same group that came up with the RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA HOAX, not to mention many others. They are Corrupt cowards who hate our Country!!!” he wrote. Trump continues to claim the 2020 election was stolen and insists he did nothing wrong on Jan. 6, sharing on Sunday old tweets from the afternoon of Jan. 6 in which he told rioters to stay peaceful and respect law enforcement. The House committee said Trump sat idly by and even escalated the riot that day by posting an incendiary tweet about former Vice President Mike Pence as pro-Trump rioters stormed the Capitol in an effort to stop the certification of the 2020 election. Pence was at the Capitol to certify the election is his ceremonial role as vice president. Lawmakers also allege Trump did not make any effort to de-escalate the rioting on social media until he saw the attack was going to fail.

Liz Cheney Annihilates Trump in Blistering Jan. 6 Meeting Opener: First President to Betray ‘Miracle’ of American Democracy -  Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) gave a brutal indictment of former President Donald Trump’s historic standing as an outlier in the history of the American presidency, calling him the only president to ever attempt to betray the peaceful transfer of power.Cheney began her opening statement in Monday’s final House Jan. 6 committee meeting by discussing Civil War history and invoking the values that inspired the American Revolution.“In the eyes of many in the world, this every four-year ceremony that we accept as normal is nothing less than a miracle. Every president in our history has defended this orderly transfer of authority except one,” Cheney declared, adding: January 6, 2021, was the first time one American president refused his constitutional duty to transfer power peacefully to the next. In our work over the last 18 months, the select committee has recognized our obligation to do everything we can to ensure this never happens again.At the beginning of our investigation, we understood that tens of millions of Americans had been persuaded by President Trump that the 2020 election was stolen by overwhelming fraud. And we also knew this was flatly false.“We knew dozens of state and federal judges had addressed and resolved all manner of allegations about the election. Our legal system functioned as it should, but the president would not accept the outcome,” Cheney continued, adding: Among the most shameful of this committee’s findings was that President Trump sat in the dining room off the Oval Office watching the violent riot at the Capitol on television. For hours, he would not issue a public statement instructing his supporters to disperse and leave the Capitol, despite urgent pleas from his White House staff and dozens of others to do so. Members of his family, his White House lawyers, virtually all those around him knew that this simple act was critical.For hours, he would not do it. During this time, law enforcement agents were attacked and seriously injured. The Capitol was invaded. The electoral count was halted. And the lives of those in the Capitol were put at risk. In addition to being unlawful, as described in our report, this was an utter moral failure and a clear dereliction of duty.

Jan. 6 committee recommends DOJ prosecute Donald Trump: recap - Congress' 18-month investigation into Donald Trump's role in the Jan. 6, 2021 U.S. Capitol attack has led the panel to recommend the Department of Justice prosecute the former president over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, including his role regarding the assault on the Capitol. The committee’s final report made 17 findings about the Capitol attack on Jan. 6, 2021, including that Trump plotted to overturn the 2020 results despite knowing he’d lost, sent an angry and armed mob to the Capitol and failed to respond to the violence as it unfolded on television. The findings served as the committee's foundation for its recommendations for a criminal investigation of Trump and ethics inquiries into four Republican House members who defied their subpoenas. The committee accused Trump of seeking to corrupt the Justice Department by trying to change its leadership, pressured state officials to overturn election results and never ordered the National Guard to provide reinforcements to besieged police officers at the Capitol. "We understand the gravity of each and every referral we are making today, just as we understand the magnitude of the crime against democracy that we described in our report," said committee member Jamie Raskin, D-Md. "But we have gone where the facts and the law lead us and inescapably they lead us here." Today's developments:

  • In referring the case to the DOJ, the committee accused Trump of violating laws governing obstruction of Congress, inciting an insurrection, conspiracy to defraud the United States, and conspiracy to make a false statement.
  • Trump responded on his Truth Social web site responded noted that he wanted to prevent violence on Jan. 6, but spent most of his statement in campaign mode, saying his enemies only want to block a presidential campaign he predicted he would win.
  • The panel also is recommending  the House Ethics Committee investigate four Republican lawmakers – including Kevin McCarthy, the potential next House speaker  – for defying the committee's subpoenas.
  • The Committee replayed moments of the testimony gathered during the investigation, including Trump aides and campaign lawyers, including former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. The aim is to provide a timeline of key events.
  • Committee members alleged that Trump’s associates offered employment to Jan. 6 witnesses in an effort to influence testimony. Rep. Zoe Lofgren, D-Calif., singled out one witness, who she did not identify, getting offered employment that would make her “financially very comfortable.”

  • Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., said Trump should not be allowed to serve as president again, adding that "a guarantee of a peaceful transfer of power” is at the heart of the republic.

The Jan. 6 committee recommended Monday the Justice Department pursue at least a handful of potential criminal charges against former President Donald Trump.The department already has a special counsel investigating Trump, but recommendations and evidence the committee gathered could provide a roadmap for prosecutors. Trump has said he did nothing wrong in challenging 2020 election results and the committee is a partisan sham.The committee argued Trump violated laws governing obstruction of Congress, inciting an insurrection, conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to make a false statement and other conspiracy statutes.The Justice Department declined comment on the recommendations.

January 6 committee issues criminal referral charging Trump with four felony crimes - At its final meeting Monday, the House Select Committee into the attack on the Capitol of January 6, 2021 voted unanimously to refer four criminal charges against Donald Trump to the US Department of Justice for investigation. This is the first time in American history that an ex-president has been formally accused of criminal actions. If prosecuted and convicted, Trump could face a lengthy prison sentence as well as disqualification from ever again holding public office. The four charges against Trump include inciting and aiding an insurrection, obstruction of a federal proceeding (the certification of the election by Congress on January 6), conspiracy to defraud the federal government, and conspiracy to file false statements (by having false electors fill out declarations that they had actually been chosen by their states). In one particularly striking passage, the executive summary of the report that accompanies the criminal referral lays out Trump’s plans to lead the mob into the Capitol on January 6, forestalled only by the opposition of his Secret Service guards, who felt it was too dangerous to allow him to leave the White House to join an armed mob: [t]he President actually intended to participate personally in the January 6th efforts at the Capitol, leading the attempt to overturn the election either from inside the House Chamber, from a stage outside the Capitol, or otherwise … There is no question from all the evidence assembled that President Trump did have that intent. The issuance of the criminal referral is a demonstration that the US political crisis is actually deepening, not abating. This comes despite claims to the contrary by the Biden White House and complacent media analysts, following a midterm election in which Trump-supporting election deniers were defeated in many high-profile contests. Trump and his supporters in Congress and the Republican Party immediately denounced the criminal referral and other actions called for by the select committee, including the referral of four Republican members of Congress to the House Ethics Committee for refusing to obey subpoenas for their testimony about the events of January 6. A majority of the Republicans who will take control of the House of Representatives January 3, 2023 voted two years ago not to certify Biden’s victory. The leader of the House Republicans, Representative Kevin McCarthy, has said he will begin an investigation, not of the insurrection, but of the select committee, when the new session begins.

House Jan. 6 panel recommends inquiries for 4 GOP members at House Ethics Committee - Aside from recommending the Justice Department prosecute Donald Trump, the House committee investigating the Capitol attack on Jan. 6, 2021 recommended House Ethics Committee inquiries for four Republican lawmakers who defied the panel's subpoenas.The move is provocative because the list includes Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California, who is in line to become the next speaker in January, and Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, the incoming chairman of the Judiciary Committee. Each of the lawmakers called the committee illegitimate for how it was organized and partisan.But the committee of seven Democrats and two Republicans said the lawmakers were targeted for ethics complaints because they communicated with former President Donald Trump and knew of his efforts to remain in power despite the results of the 2020 election."To be clear, this referral is only for failure to comply with lawfully issued subpoenas," the investigative committee said. "The Rules of the House of Representatives make clear that their willful noncompliance violates multiple standards of conduct and subjects them to discipline."The Ethics Committee can recommend discipline ranging from fines to expulsion for the full House to vote on when members violate rules. But the six-member panel is divided equally between the parties, so it is frequently stymied in partisan disputes. The list of lawmakers referred to the House Ethics Committee is:

  • McCarthy communicated with Trump before, during and after the riot. On the House floor, McCarthy called on Trump to "accept his share of responsibility" for the violence. But McCarthy's lawyer responded to the subpoena with an 11-page letter calling the committee illegitimate because of how it was organized, although federal courts have upheld subpoenas from the panel.
  • Jordan spoke with Trump at least twice on Jan. 6, according to the committee. Jordan also received five calls that day from Trump's personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, the committee said. Jordan led a conference call with other lawmakers Jan. 2, 2021, discussing strategies for delaying the Electoral College vote count, the committee said.
  • Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, who introduced Trump to Jeffrey Clark, the former Justice Department official Trump considered installing as attorney general to pursue baseless claims of election fraud. Perry also exchanged numerous text messages with Meadows about election fraud leading up to Jan. 6.
  • Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona attended White House meetings, including one Dec. 21, 2020, to plan for Jan. 6. He texted former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows as early as Nov. 6, 2020, urging him to "encourage the state legislatures to appoint" electors, the committee said.

The January 6 Committee’s referrals against Trump and the intensifying crisis of American democracy -  The House January 6 Committee’s issuance of criminal referrals against former President Donald Trump is a political milestone. In making its referrals, the committee has finally acknowledged the staggering fact that Trump, who is still the political leader of the Republican Party, engaged in a “conspiracy to incite, assist or aid an insurrection.” The conspiracy had as its aim the overthrow of the 2020 elections and the establishment of a presidential dictatorship.Nearly two years later, the committee’s action—backed by a mountain of evidence presented in a 154-page executive summary issued on Monday, to be followed Wednesday by the release of its full report—constitutes an acknowledgement of this political reality.In addition to Trump, the committee also issued criminal referrals against lawyers and federal officials who played leading roles in the conspiracy, including coup lawyers John Eastman, Rudy Giuliani and Kenneth Chesebro, former Justice Department official Jeffrey Clark, and Trump’s chief of staff Mark Meadows.The criminal referrals go to the Biden Justice Department, which has placed its investigation of January 6 and Trump’s withholding of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago, Florida compound in the hands of Special Counsel Jack Smith. In beginning her remarks on Monday, Committee vice-chair and de facto leader Elizabeth Cheney, the neo-con war hawk and daughter of war criminal Dick Cheney, invoked the legacy of her great-great-grandfather, who enlisted in the Union army in 1861 and fought for the entire duration of the war. In raising the Civil War, Cheney, intentionally or not, raised the specter of civil war in the US today. What she did not say was that her Republican Party, which opposed slavery and led the crushing of a slave-owners’ insurrection, is now the party of fascist insurrectionists.That this will not be altered by the committee’s investigation and recommendations was made abundantly and immediately clear. The Republican Party, to which Biden and the Democrats incessantly appeal for “unity” and “bipartisanship,” recognizes neither the committee nor, for that matter, the Biden administration as legitimate. The Republican National Committee has declared the January 6 insurrection a “legitimate form of political discourse.”

Hope Hicks told Trump that January 6 was as bad as everyone said it was and he complained that it wasn't fair that he was being blamed -- In a spate of witness deposition transcripts released on Friday by the House select committee investigating the January 6, 2021, insurrection, a transcript reveals that former White House Communications Director Hope Hicks told the committee that former President Donald Trump felt like the blame he received for the riot on Capitol Hill was unfair. Once one of Trump's closest allies, 34-year-old Hicks sat voluntarily for witness testimony, a video of which aired during the committee's final hearing on Monday. She was one of few people in Trump's orbit that communicated to Trump that he lost the 2020 election, according to the transcript released Friday. Hicks talked to Trump on January 11, 2021, days after the deadly insurrection. "He asked me if I thought it was really as bad as everyone was making it out to be. And my answer was, yes, I thought it was," the transcript reads.She added: "I think he felt like t wasn't fair — the response to it wasn't fair." Hicks, who resigned from the White House on January 12, 2021, said she communicated to Trump that he should change his approach and appear more "rational" to observers. "And I was just telling him, I think, you know, the more rational you are and restrained you are, the more extreme everybody else will look, so things like banning you from social media I think will backfire, and that, you know, if you focus on the things people really care about and not the election, I think that things will get better quickly for you, in terms of politically," Hicks told the committee. She said Trump also asked her if she believed the election was stolen, to which she objected. “And then we just sort of exchanged some, you know, pleasantries, and that was it," she added."I just think that he felt like, you know, blaming him for everything that transpired wasn't fair," Hicks continued.The committee released a thorough report on Thursday of its findings while investigating the Capitol riot and how Trump played a part in it. They also recommended to the Justice Department that Trump face criminal charges for his role in the insurrection.

US Justice Department ask by house committee to pursue charges against Trump   - The House select committee investigating last year’s January 6 Capitol riot released its long-anticipated final 845-page report after the bipartisan committee’s nine members voted unanimously to ask the Justice Department to pursue charges against former President Donald Trump for his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. “The work of the Select Committee underscores that our democratic institutions are only as strong as the commitment of those who are entrusted with their care,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wrote in the foreword of the report. The report consists of eight chapters and includes an overview of the evidence developed as well as legislative recommendations and referrals to the US Justice department and House Ethics Committee. The report recommended the Senate to pass the Presidential Electoral Count Act, which the House has already passed. “The Department of Justice should also take appropriate action to prevent its attorneys from participating in campaign-related activities, or (as described in the report) activities aimed at subverting the rule of law and overturning a lawful election,” the report also suggested. “The Committee believes that those who took an oath to protect and defend the Constitution and then, on January 6th, engaged in insurrection can appropriately be disqualified and barred from holding government office—whether federal or state, civilian or military—absent at least two-thirds of Congress acting to remove the disability pursuant to Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment,” the report said in the recommendations section. The committee on Wednesday released the transcripts of more than 1,000 interviews from their investigation over the Jan. 6 attack. Former President Donald Trump commented on the report on his Truth Social network, calling it “highly partisan” and a “political Witch Hunt.” Trump called his supporters to the Capitol on Jan. 6, urging them to march on the federal legislature as lawmakers prepared to carry out their constitutionally-mandated duties of certifying election results. Five people died as a result of the violence on Jan. 6, and the Capitol itself was badly damaged. Four law enforcement officers died by suicide in the aftermath. The attack marked the first time the Capitol had been occupied since British forces torched it during the War of 1812.

Read the Jan. 6 committee’s final report | The Hill --The House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol released its highly anticipated final report on Thursday, capping off the panel’s year-and-a-half probe.The report was initially set to publish on Wednesday but the committee punted the release to Thursday. The panel did not give a reason for the delay, but the announcement came a few hours before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered an address to a joint meeting of Congress.  The committee did, however, release the transcripts of a number of witness testimonies, including two conversations the panel had with Cassidy Hutchinson.

Five red flags in Trump's taxes - An entire office of tax experts has been quietly studying former President Donald Trump’s still-unreleased tax returns for weeks and produced a report showing he paid little or no federal income tax while in office. Though not well known outside tax circles, the Joint Committee on Taxation is Congress’ brain on tax issues, and the House Ways and Means Committee turned to the nonpartisan agency for help deciphering Trump’s exceedingly complicating filings. Since late last month, JCT has been poring over documents behind closed doors and says in a report released this week by Democrats that there are multiple issues that the IRS should be examining. (Lawmakers say Trump’s raw returns will soon be released after they’ve been scrubbed of sensitive information like his Social Security number.) Here are five potential red flags in Trump’s returns:

  • The single-biggest issue in Trump’s taxes is the massive losses he is claiming — it is the primary reason he paid little or no tax between 2015 and 2020. Businesses are taxed on their profits, so if they can show their earnings are being swamped by their expenses, they can erase their IRS bills. And if those losses are more than big enough to wipe out income in one year, the remainder can be deducted in subsequent years too, offsetting earnings and thereby reducing tax bills in them as well. Without those losses, Trump’s taxes would look fundamentally different. In 2016, for example, when he paid just $750 in federal income taxes, he reported $30 million in earnings but also $60 million in losses.
  • There are multiple instances in which Trump may be improperly deducting money spent on personal activities and hobbies as business expenses. JCT says it found many filings that are used to report streams of income where his earnings and expenses exactly matched, or where there was no reported income at all — a sign of potential improper mingling of expenses. In 2016, for example, the filing for DT Endeavor I LLC (aviation) reported gross income of $680,886 and expenses that also totaled $680,886. A filing for Melania Trump (modeling) said it took in $3,848 and reported the same amount of expenses. A filing for Donald J. Trump (speaking) reported $50,000 in gross income and $46,162 in travel expenses. Aside from the unlikelihood of income and costs exactly equaling, it raises the question of whether someone would bother with a business in which their expenses consumed every dollar they made.
  • Trump reported receiving hundreds of thousands of dollars in interest payments on loans he gave Ivanka Trump, Donald Trump, Jr. and Eric Trump. That raises eyebrows because that could be a way to get around the gift tax. If he gave money outright to his kids, it would likely be subject to a stiff 40 percent tax. The gift tax is designed to prevent people from escaping the estate tax by giving money away to their kids, for example, while they’re alive. Calling that money a loan would avoid the gift tax while also allowing his children to deduct from their own taxes the interest they paid him.
  • Analysts question a $21 million deduction Trump took in 2015 for a conservation easement at his Seven Springs estate in Westchester County, New York. The easements allow people to take charitable deductions for promising to cordon off property from development to protect wildlife, for example. The question here is the value assigned to the land — the bigger the value, the larger the deduction. New York Attorney General Letitia James is now challenging this same conservation easement valuation in court, alleging Trump and his business “manipulated the appraisals to inflate the value of the donated development rights” at Seven Springs and another property.
  • Trump didn’t pay much U.S. tax in the returns examined — just $1.8 million over the six-year period. But in 2018 he claimed a foreign tax credit for paying $1.3 million to other governments. People can claim a credit for paying levies elsewhere, something that’s designed to spare people from having to pay taxes twice on the same dollar. The question here is whether those are legit. The IRS should be asking to see the receipts, says JCT.

Donald Trump tax returns: Why they are such a big deal -- The Democratic-controlled House Ways and Means Committee on Tuesday voted to release former President Donald Trump’s tax returns, raising the potential of additional revelations in the coming days related to the finances of the longtime businessman who broke political norms by refusing to voluntarily make public his returns as he sought the presidency.  Reports released by the committee, as well as Congress’ nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation, give a glimpse into Trump’s financial position before and during his presidency. Access to the tax records culminates of a yearslong legal fight that has played out everywhere from the campaign trail to the halls of Congress and the Supreme Court. Since Richard Nixon — following media reports suggesting the then-president had taken questionable, large deductions on his individual tax returns — U.S. presidents and all major party nominees have voluntarily made at least summaries of their tax information available to the public. Trump bucked that trend as a candidate, and then as president, repeatedly asserting that his taxes were “under audit” and therefore could not be released. According to the reports released this week, an audit of Trump’s 2016 taxes was not begun until April 3, 2019, more than two years into Trump’s presidency. That date coincides with when Democratic Rep. Richard Neal of Massachusetts, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, asked the IRS for information related to Trump’s tax returns. The New York Times found that before Trump entered the White House, he was facing an IRS audit potentially tied to a $72.9 million tax refund arising from $700 million in losses he claimed in 2009. Documents released Tuesday indicate that Trump continued to collect tax benefits from those losses through 2018. The IRS has an internal policy that mandates audits of presidents and vice presidents. Representatives for President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama confirmed that each was audited for every year in office. But in their report, committee Democrats said the audit process, which dates to 1977, was “dormant, at best” during the early years of the Trump administration. Trump is the first president in recent history to refuse to share tax information with the public. His finances are more complex than those of other presidents. Trump’s network has included hundreds of businesses, pass-through entities — the income of which is reported on individual, not corporate, returns — foreign and domestic properties, contracts and complex business interests.  According to information released this week, the IRS initially assigned just one staff member to Trump’s audit, which also highlight the immense funding challenges that the agency faces. IRS agents in charge of the audits repeatedly failed to bring in specialists with expertise assessing the complicated structure of Trump’s holdings. They frequently determined that a limited examination was warranted because Trump hired a professional accounting firm that they assumed would make sure Trump “properly reports all income and deduction items correctly.”

Hunter Biden adds former Kushner attorney to legal team - Hunter Biden, the son of President Biden, has reportedly hired an attorney who previously represented former White House senior adviser Jared Kushner during the FBI’s probe into potential ties between President Trump’s campaign staff and Russia. Hunter Biden tapped attorney Abbe Lowell, of the firm Winston and Strawn, to handle expected congressional oversight probes once Republicans take control of the House next month, another attorney for the president’s son confirmed to multiple outlets. Kevin Morris confirmed to NBC News on Wednesday that Lowell will serve on Hunter Biden’s legal team. “Hunter Biden has retained Abbe Lowell to help advise him and be part of his legal team to address the challenges he is facing,” Morris said, according to NBC. Morris added, “Lowell is a well-known Washington based attorney has represented numerous public officials and high profile people in DOJ [Department of Justice] investigations and trials as well as Congressional Investigations. Mr. Lowell will handle congressional investigations and general strategic advice.” Among those public officials were the House Democrats, who Lowell represented during the impeachment process of former President Clinton, and Kushner, who he represented during Special Counselor Robert Mueller’s investigation. The addition to Hunter Biden’s legal team comes after Republican members of the House Oversight Committee made it clear in November that they would look into the foreign business dealings of the Biden family.

Most in Twitter poll say Musk should step down as CEO - A majority of respondents said Elon Musk should step down as head of Twitter in a poll he posted on the platform. Musk published the 12-hour poll on his account on Sunday evening, and with 17.5 million total votes cast, 57.5 percent said Musk should step down while 42.5 percent said he should not do so. “I will abide by the results of this poll,” Musk said in his Sunday tweet. The newly minted Twitter CEO has warned of the platform’s financial state as he attempts to shift its revenue from advertising to Twitter’s new monthly subscription service, warning the company is close to filing for bankruptcy. “The question is not finding a CEO, the question is finding a CEO who can keep Twitter alive,” Musk tweeted on Sunday night. Meanwhile, he has also faced a plunging Tesla stock in recent days as he continues leading Twitter. Shares of Tesla fell by 14.5 percent last week and more than 60 percent since the start of the year But Musk indicated that he had not picked a successor to run Twitter. “As the saying goes, be careful what you wish, as you might get it,” Musk wrote in a separate tweet minutes after posting the unscientific poll.

FBI Says Twitter Infiltration Business As Usual , Slams 'Conspiracy Theorists' | -- The FBI has issued a statement in response to the Elon Musk's release of THE TWITTER FILES, which boils down to 'Of course we've embedded ourselves in social media companies, and anyone who has a problem with it is a conspiracy theorist trying to tarnish our stellar reputation.'"The correspondence between the FBI and Twitter show nothing more than examples of our tradition, longstanding and ongoing federal government and private sector engagements, which involve numerous companies over multiple sectors and industries.As evidenced in the correspondence, the FBI provides critical information to the private sector in an effort to allow them to protect themselves and their customers.The men and women of the FBI work every day to protect the American public.It is unfortunate that conspiracy theorists and others are feeding the American public misinformation with the sole purpose of attempting to discredit the agency."

Elon Musk’s Twitter abruptly reverses ban on promotion of alternative social media platforms - Less than 24 hours after announcing a new “promotion of alternative social platforms policy,” Twitter removed the statement from its Help Center and deleted a tweet thread published on Sunday that explained the policy. The original statement said, “Twitter will no longer allow free promotion of specific social media platforms on Twitter.” The policy explained, “at the tweet level and the account level, we will remove any free promotion of prohibited 3rd party social media platforms, such as linking out (i.e., using URLs) to any of the below platforms on Twitter, or providing your handle without a URL.” The list of prohibited social platforms included Facebook, Instagram, Mastodon, Truth Social, Post and Nostr. Twitter also said that accounts would be suspended for linking, “3rd party social media link aggregators such linktr.ee and Ink.bio.” A third party link aggregator is an online service that brings together lists of links or content in digest form from multiple web sources. The statement further explained that users who violate the new policy may be required to delete offending tweets, and accounts may also be temporarily locked or suspended. Twitter also threatened to remove accounts that try to skirt the new rules by posting screenshots of their other accounts or spelling out words like “dot.” Later in the day, responding to a deluge of public criticism, Musk tweeted, “Policy will be adjusted to suspending accounts only when that account’s *primary* purpose is promotion of competitors, which essentially falls under the no spam rule.” However, backlash against the new Twitter policy from others within the financial elite apparently forced the billionaire owner to completely reconsider the policy by early Monday evening. According to a report by CNBC, “The policy is unusual, as few, if any, other social media companies have rules about sharing links to other accounts. Twitter’s co-founder and former CEO Jack Dorsey said the company’s new policy ‘doesn’t make sense’ in a tweet Sunday.”

NY Regulates Blogs With Hateful Conduct --New York has a new law which purports to require all blog operators to have a policy dealing with so-called hateful speech posted by third parties, and also to have a mechanism to respond to user complaints about such posts. But there seems to be an easy way for those concerned about this attempt to regulate speech to avoid the $1000-a-day fines New York's Attorney General plans to impose for violations. Law professor Eugene Volokh, a well known First Amendment advocate, has declared the law an unconstitutional restriction on protected speech, and has filed a lawsuit to nullify it, saying: "New York politicians are slapping a badge on my chest. . .By obligating me to do the state’s bidding with regard to viewpoints that New York condemns, the law violates the First Amendment. .. By challenging this law, I hope I can put down the badge and go back to my keyboard—because legislators can fight crime and respond to hate without violating the First Amendment or drafting me into the speech police."But another well known law professor who also has also won several free speech cases, John Banzhaf, says that while he fully supports Volokh's efforts, there's an easy way for blog operators to avoid the law, and the apparently unconstitutional burdens it seeks to impose on bloggers in New York State as well as elsewhere - since it apples to any "social media network that conducts business in the state."New York now has a law [N.Y. Gen. Bus. Law § 394-CCC] which purports to require those who "for profit-making purposes [e.g. permit ads] operate internet platforms that are designed to enable users to share any content with other users or to make such content available to the public" to have "a clear and concise policy . . . [about how] such social media network will respond and address the reports of incidents of hateful conduct on their platform."It also purports to require each blog operator to "provide and maintain a clear and easily accessible mechanism for individual users to report incidents of hateful conduct" and also a method to "allow the social media network to provide a direct response to any individual reporting hateful conduct informing them of how the matter is being handled."The law targets what it calls "hateful conduct" - although it is actually just the posting of speech/messages on the Internet - which it defines as "the use of a social media network to vilify, humiliate, or incite violence against a group or a class of persons on the basis of race, color, religion, ethnicity, national origin, disability, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity or gender expression."Because this very sparse description is not further defined, it might be interpreted to mean any statement which a sensitive person might find critical or not even sufficiently respectful of his identity group.

CNN chief says ‘uninformed vitriol’ from left has been ‘stunning’ - Chris Licht, who became CEO of CNN earlier this year, said he has been surprised by the “uninformed vitriol” directed at him from liberals as he attempts to shift the network’s editorial direction, in a series of interviews with The New York Times.Licht took over the network in May, making a series of staffing and programmatic changes that have sparked buzz about Licht aiming for a more centrist slant.“The uninformed vitriol, especially from the left, has been stunning,” Licht told the Times. “Which proves my point: so much of what passes for news is name-calling, half-truths and desperation.” Since joining CNN, Licht shook up the network’s morning lineup by moving host Don Lemon, an outspoken critic of former President Trump, out of his prime-time slot and into “CNN This Morning” with Kaitlyn Collins and Poppy Harlow. Licht has also let go prominent pundits like Chris Cillizza and Brian Stelter, also known for their sharp criticisms of the former president.Many inside and outside the organization see Licht steering the network toward a more centrist direction, a characterization Licht has pushed back on.Instead, Licht told the Times that he wanted the network to offer a “rational conversation about polarizing issues,” adding that he hoped viewers would “take what they’ve heard to the dinner table and have a discussion.”

BankThink: FTX collapse shows the value of strong financial services regulation | American Banker - Cryptocurrencies have been the speculative rage in recent years. Millions of people, including a lot of unsophisticated investors, purchased tens of billions of dollars of crypto hoping to get rich quick. Quite the opposite occurred recently, with the implosion of the multibillion-dollar cryptocurrency exchange FTX, and the money invested "vanished." The founder of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, a bushy-haired kid literally living like a king in the Bahamas, was finally arrested a few days ago and is likely to spend a very long time in prison. "Investors," many of them young and gullible, learned the hard way that the regulatory protections put around our banking system over the past century are essential to protect our population, our national security and our economic well-being. When will our politicians — who collected enormous amounts of campaign donations from Bankman-Fried and appeared with him in publicity photos — ever learn? If something seems too good to be true, it almost certainly is.

How Sam Bankman-Fried swindled $8 billion in customer money, according to federal prosecutors - Before his surprise arrest, Sam Bankman-Fried had apologized for everything he could think of, to everyone who would listen. In a leaked draft of his aborted House testimony, he wrote that he was truly, for his entire adult life, “sad.” He “f----- up,” he tweeted, and wrote, and said. He told Bahamas regulators he was “deeply sorry for ending up in this position.” But when Bankman-Fried was escorted out of his penthouse apartment in Nassau in handcuffs, it still wasn’t clear what he was apologizing for, having stridently denied committing fraud to CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin, ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos, and across Twitter for weeks. But the day after his arrest, federal prosecutors and regulators unsealed dozens of pages of filings and charges that accused Bankman-Fried of not just having perpetrated a fraud, but having done so “from the start,” according to a filing from the Securities Exchange Commission Far from having “f----- up,” SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulators, alongside federal prosecutors from the United States Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, allege that Bankman-Fried was at the heart — indeed, the driver — of “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history,” in the words of U.S. Attorney Damian Williams. The allegations against Bankman-Fried were assembled with stunning speed, but offer insight into one of the highest-profile fraud prosecutions since Enron. Bankman-Fried founded his crypto hedge fund Alameda Research in November 2017, renting office space in Berkeley, California. The scion of two Stanford law professors, Bankman-Fried had graduated from MIT, worked at the prestigious quantitative trading firm Jane Street Capital, and had broken into cryptocurrencies with a MIT classmate, Gary Wang. Alameda Research was essentially an arbitrage shop, purchasing bitcoin at a lower price from one exchange and selling it for a higher price at another. Price differences in South Korea versus the rest of the world allowed Bankman-Fried and Wang to profit tremendously from what was nicknamed “the kimchi swap.” In April 2019, Bankman-Fried and Wang — along with U.C. Berkeley graduate Nishad Singh — founded FTX.com, an international cryptocurrency exchange that offered customers innovative trading features, a responsive platform, and a reliable experience. Federal regulators at the CFTC say that just a month after founding FTX.com, Bankman-Fried, “unbeknownst to all but a small circle of insiders,” was leveraging customer assets — specifically, customers’ personal cryptocurrency deposits — for Alameda’s own bets.  But Bankman-Fried didn’t have permission from customers to gamble with their funds. FTX’s own terms of use specifically forbade him, or Alameda, from using customer money for anything — unless the customer allowed it. And from FTX’s inception, there was a lot of customer money. The CFTC cited 2019 reports from FTX which pegged the futures volume alone as often exceeding $100 million every day. Using customer money for Alameda’s bets constituted fraud, the CFTC alleges. In the Southern District of New York, where Bankman-Fried was indicted by a grand jury, Bankman-Fried faces criminal fraud charges as well. From the very genesis of FTX, regulators allege, Bankman-Fried was using customer funds to bankroll his speculative investments.

FTX founder Bankman-Fried sent back to Bahamas jail in day of courtroom chaos -- FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was sent back to a Bahamas jail Monday in a chaotic courtroom scene, after a reported plan for him to waive his extradition to the U.S. stalled. However, multiple media reports later in the day said that he had told his Bahamian lawyer to proceed with extradition hearings, and he’s now expected back in court later this week.   Reports over the weekend indicated that Bankman-Fried would consent to extradition, but the former crypto billionaire told a different story Monday, demanding to see a copy of his federal indictment before agreeing to return to the U.S. He will return to Fox Hill jail rather than surrendering himself to U.S. custody.     Bankman-Fried’s legal team signaled that they would fight extradition last week. CNBC and several other outlets reported that Bankman-Fried had changed his mind and would instead submit himself for extradition on Monday.In open court, chaos reigned. Bankman-Fried, 30, dressed in a blue suit and white button-down shirt, was visibly shaking. His Bahamian defense attorney., Jerone Roberts, told the court that he was “shocked” that Bankman-Fried was in court.“I did not request him to be here this morning,” the attorney said. Franklyn Williams KC, the Bahamian prosecutor, said that he “understood that [Bankman-Fried] intended to waive extradition,” according to an NBC News producer present in the courtroom.The FTX founder arrived at Bahamian court in a convoy of police vehicles, heavily guarded, just after 10 a.m. ET.After the hearing closed, the New York Times and Washington Post both reported that Bankman-Fried agreed to extradition, citing Roberts. “We as counsel will prepare the necessary documents to trigger the court,” Mr. Roberts told the Times. CNBC has not yet been able to confirm these reports independently.The move comes just days after he was remanded to the medical unit of Bahamas’ notorious Fox Hill Prison.The State Department in a 2020 report called the conditions at Fox Hill Prison “harsh,” citing “overcrowding, poor nutrition, inadequate sanitation, poor ventilation, and inadequate medical care.” Medical care in particular is spotty at the Bahamian prison, the report said. The former billionaire was transported from one of his several multimillion-dollar penthouse homes to the prison last week — though Bankman-Fried was entitled to his own room in the medical wing, Bloomberg reported. Bankman-Fried faces life in federal prison, without the possibility of supervised release, if convicted on just one of eight offenses that prosecutors have charged him with. Trial lawyers and former prosecutors say that, in practice, many white-collar defendants are given lesser sentences than what the guidelines dictate. So, even in large fraud cases, you can see life sentences drastically reduced.

FTX's Gary Wang, Alameda's Caroline Ellison plead guilty to federal charges, cooperating with prosecutors -  FTX co-founder Gary Wang and former Alameda Research co-CEO Caroline Ellison both pleaded guilty to federal charges in the Southern District of New York, U.S. Attorney Damian Williams said in a message Wednesday. Wang pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud, wire fraud, conspiracy to commit commodities fraud and conspiracy to commit securities fraud. Ellison pleaded guilty to two counts of wire fraud, two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, conspiracy to commit commodities fraud, conspiracy to commit securities fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering. The charges were released the same night that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was en route from the Bahamas to New York, where he faces eight federal criminal charges from the same prosecutors who accepted plea deals from Ellison and Wang. The duo’s plea agreements were signed on Monday, the day that Bankman-Fried was originally supposed to return to the U.S. before a court hearing in the Bahamas devolved into chaos. Bankman-Fried was arrested last week in the Bahamas following his indictment in the Southern District of New York. He’s spent the last few days embroiled in contentious court hearings over whether he would accept extradition to the U.S. Simultaneously, both the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission released civil complaints against them. The SEC alleged that they were involved “in a multiyear scheme to defraud equity investors in FTX, the crypto trading platform co-founded by Samuel Bankman-Fried and Wang.” The CFTC’s expanded complaint charges “Ellison with fraud and material misrepresentations in connection with the sale of digital asset commodities in interstate commerce, and charges Wang with fraud in connection with the sale of digital asset commodities in interstate commerce.” Wang and Ellison accepted the claims made against them, the CFTC statement said. Ellison was singled out in the SEC complaint for engaging in artificial manipulation of FTT , FTX’s self-issued token, as part of a broader effort to boost Alameda Research’s available collateral for lending. The SEC said that both Ellison and Wang are cooperating with the agency’s ongoing investigation. Alameda Research was linked to multiple loans from major crypto firms that have now filed for bankruptcy protection, including Voyager Digital and BlockFi Lending. Williams did not offer specific details on charges against Ellison or Wang. The SEC alleges that both Ellison and Wang, in their respective roles at Alameda and FTX, abetted Bankman-Fried in allegedly defrauding FTX customers. The SEC alleges that Wang created a software backdoor in FTX’s platform which allowed Alameda to divert customer funds for its own trades. Alameda was led by Bankman-Fried until 2021, when Ellison assumed control alongside Sam Trabucco, who departed from Alameda in August 2022. Trabucco did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment. Ellison, 28, and Wang, 29, become the second and third individuals to be charged in connection with FTX’s multibillion-dollar collapse. “Bankman-Fried and Wang thus gave Alameda and Ellison carte blanche to use FTX customer assets for Alameda’s trading operations and for whatever other purposes Bankman-Fried and Ellison saw fit,” the SEC said. Trabucco, who joined Alameda “in or around 2019,” according to the SEC, was not mentioned in connection with any wrongdoing.

Caroline Ellison and Gary Wang: FTX co-founder and ex-chief of hedge fund Alameda Research each pleaded guilty to multiple charges, are cooperating with feds - Two senior executives associated with collapsed crypto exchange FTX have pleaded guilty to multiple criminal charges and are cooperating with federal prosecutors, according to unsealed court records. Additionally, the pair face civil fraud charges from the Securities and Exchange Commission that were announced Wednesday night. Gary Wang, the co-founder of FTX, and Caroline Ellison, who served as CEO of the hedge fund Alameda Research, pleaded guilty to multiple counts of conspiracy and fraud for their roles in the fraud scheme that led to the collapse of the crypto-trading platform. Damian Williams, the US attorney for the Southern District of New York, announced the charges in a video message Wednesday night. In a brief statement, he reiterated that the investigation is still ongoing, noting specifically that these new charges in the case are not the last. Ilan Graff, an attorney for Wang, said: “Gary has accepted responsibility for his actions and takes seriously his obligations as a cooperating witness.” Wang has already appeared in court for his guilty plea. Ellison’s attorneys could not be immediately reached for comment. The charges were unsealed as Sam Bankman-Fried was enroute to the United States from the Bahamas, where he was arrested last week on an eight-count indictment for what Williams called one of the largest financial frauds in American history. Bankman-Fried waived his right to contest extradition on Wednesday and boarded a plane for the United States in the early evening. Bankman-Fried is expected to appear before a judge in Manhattan on Thursday. Prosecutors and his attorneys have been in discussions about a bail package that would allow him to avoid detention, people familiar with the matter told CNN. Wang cofounded FTX with Bankman-Fried in 2019 and also worked with him at his hedge fund Alameda Research. Ellison became CEO of Alameda in October 2021, according to court filings. Prosecutors allege Bankman-Fried engaged in multiple fraudulent schemes. Among them, they allege that Bankman-Fried stole money from FTX customers to support Alameda, made investments in other companies, bought luxury real estate and donated tens of millions of dollars to political campaigns.

FTX boss Sam Bankman-Fried arrives in US to face charges - Sam Bankman-Fried, former boss of failed cryptocurrency exchange FTX, has arrived by plane in New York from the Bahamas to face fraud charges. The 30-year-old was extradited on suspicion of committing "one of the biggest financial frauds in US history", US authorities have said. Mr Bankman-Fried, who denies the allegations, may appear in court later on Thursday morning. Two of his former associates have pleaded guilty to related charges. FTX co-founder Gary Wang and Caroline Ellison, former head of cryptocurrency trading firm Alameda Research, were both charged with "roles in the frauds that contributed to FTX's collapse", Damian Williams, attorney for the Southern District of New York, announced. They are both now co-operating with the Southern District of New York, he said in a video as court documents were released. A lawyer for Mr Wang said his client had accepted responsibility for his actions and took seriously his obligations as a co-operating witness. "Samuel Bankman-Fried is now in FBI custody and is on his way back to the United States," Mr Williams said. "He will be transported directly to the Southern District of New York and he will appear in court before a judge in this district as soon as possible." "If you participated in misconduct at FTX or Alameda, now is the time to get ahead of it," he added. "We are moving quickly and our patience is not eternal."

Sam Bankman-Fried's $250 million bail bond approved by judge in N.Y. - Sam Bankman-Fried was released on a $250 million bail package after making his first U.S. court appearance to face fraud charges over the collapse of FTX, the cryptocurrency exchange he co-founded. Shackled and wearing a blue suit, Bankman-Fried appeared Thursday before a magistrate judge for the bail hearing in Manhattan federal court. He did not enter a plea, which will take place later before the judge presiding over his case. Bankman-Fried Released on $250 Million Bond in FTX Fraud Case  The bail package includes a $250 million personal recognizance bond secured by his parents' house in California. Its terms require him to stay with them and submit to electronic monitoring.

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried to be released on $250 million bail, will live with his parents    - FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was released on $250 million bond while awaiting trial for fraud and other criminal charges, a New York federal judge ruled Thursday. Bankman-Fried stepped out of U.S. District Court in Manhattan, flanked by his parents, his legal team, and court security at 2:19 local time. The terms of his personal recognizance bond were agreed to by prosecutors and Bankman-Fried’s lawyers. The 30-year-old will face his next hearing, presided over by Judge Ronnie Abrams, in New York City on Jan. 3., where he’ll enter his plea and be arraigned. A recognizance bond is a written commitment from the accused to appear in court when ordered. In return, Bankman-Fried’s camp would not be required to meet the full collateral requirements of the bail. The bond was secured by equity in his family home, and by the signatures of his parents and two other individuals with “considerable” assets. In addition to the $250 million package, which prosecutors called “the largest-ever pretrial bond,” the former crypto billionaire would also be required to wear an electronic monitoring bracelet, submit to mental health counseling, and restrict himself to travel within and between the Northern District of California and the Southern and Eastern Districts of New York. Judge Gabriel Gorenstein said Bankman-Fried would require “strict” supervision following his release to his parents’ home in California. His parents, both Stanford Law professors, were present in the courtroom. Bankman-Fried was flanked by two U.S. marshals, dressed in a blue suit and brown shoes. Bankman-Fried entered in ankle shackles as well, but traded them for his ankle monitor while in the courtroom. He only spoke when the judge asked him if Bankman-Fried understood the consequences of breaking his bail agreement. “Yes, I do,” he told the judge. The former FTX CEO will also be barred from opening any new lines of credit of more than $1,000 while awaiting trial over what federal regulators have called a “brazen” fraud at his bankrupt crypto empire. Bankman-Fried was the heart of “a fraud of epic proportions,” Assistant U.S. Attorney Nicolas Roos told the court. But he voluntarily returned to the United States, has no history of flight and has significantly reduced financial assets, Roos said. Bankman-Fried had previously claimed that he was down to a mere $100,000, a steep fall from grace for a man who was once at the head of a $32 billion crypto empire.

As Crypto-Crisis Metastasizes, Big Moves Are Being Made on CBDCs  - More than $2 trillion has been wiped from the “value” of the crypto market in the past year as the final stages of one of the world’s biggest ever pump-and-dump schemes play out. The fallout from the epic collapse of FTX (covered in depth by Yves here, here and here), has now spread to Binance and Coinbase, two of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges. Coinbase’s stock is down an eye-watering 86% so far this year and its bonds are trading close to 50% on the dollar. As for Binance, its books were just described as a “black box” in a damning Reuters special report. The value of its digital token is down 8% over the past month and 50% so far this year. Depositors have reportedly yanked billions of dollars worth of funds from the exchange in the past week, though CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao claims much of that money has returned.One reason why investors are spooked is a recent report from that the US Justice Department is mulling going after Binance, “CZ” and other senior executives for an assortment of financial crimes including “unlicensed money transmission, money laundering conspiracy and criminal sanctions violations.” That came on top of the arrest last week of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, who has been charged with money laundering and fraud, among other violations.Now that the horse has bolted and trillions of dollars of investor funds have been lost, noises are finally coming from Congress about the need to regulate cryptos. This comes on the heels of Executive Order 14069, “Ensuring Responsible Development of Digital Assets,” which calls for “safeguards” to be put in place to “promote the responsible development of digital assets to protect customers”. Signed by Joe Biden on March 9, it also recommends creating a so-called “digital dollar” (more on that later).It’s not just the US that is calling for sweeping regulation on cryptos. Yesterday (Dec. 19), the European Central Bank’s Vice President Luis de Guindos said that crypto assets need to be regulated at a global level to avoid loopholes in the global financial architecture. Last Wednesday (Dec.14), Germany’s financial market regulator BaFin made the exact same case, calling for global regulation of the crypto market to protect consumers, prevent money laundering and preserve financial stability.While all this is playing out, to breathless coverage in the media, big moves are being made around the world on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). And they are receiving virtually no coverage.Leading the charge are the world’s two most populous nations, China and India, which between them account for close to three out of every eight people on the planet.

One of Crypto’s Favorite US Senators Drops Swan-Song Bill on Eve of Retirement -- Crypto ally U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) used one of his final days in office to send a last legislative message on regulating stablecoins.The final stretch of the waning Congress hasn’t produced any crypto surprises, and the industry’s lobbyists have been standing down, but Toomey decided to introduce a bill as a guide for next year’s lawmakers who’ll be under pressure to do something about digital assets.“I hope this framework lays the groundwork for my colleagues to pass legislation next year safeguarding customer funds without inhibiting innovation,” the retiring senator said in a statement that will likely be among his last as the final dozen days of the session wind to a close.The retiring senator’s legislation, introduced Wednesday, would retain privacy for stablecoin transactions, set up the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency as a licenser of companies issuing payment stablecoins, let nonbank entities issue the tokens and clarify that stablecoin issuers that don’t offer interest wouldn’t have to worry about securities laws.It would also require the digital tokens – designed to maintain a steady value by pegging to an asset such as the dollar – be fully backed by reserves, and it nods toward maintaining existing state-based supervision. But it’s Toomey’s second stablecoin bill this year. The first one didn’t produce a lot of results.His new legislation is pointedly meant to keep the Federal Reserve away from this sector, avoiding what he termed a potential conflict of interest if the Fed is authorized to create a digital dollar in the future. The latest bill might have packed more of a punch if Toomey’s fellow Republicans had seized the Senate majority in November’s election. But his party remains in the minority and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is set to replace him as ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee. This swap may leave a vacuum for cryptocurrency advocacy in the Senate because Toomey was a staunch supporter of crypto innovation and Scott’s views remain unclear.

Bitcoin miner Core Scientific is filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy — but plans to keep mining - Core Scientific, one of the largest publicly traded crypto mining companies in the U.S., is filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Texas early Wednesday morning, according to a person familiar with the company’s finances. The move follows a year of plunging cryptocurrency prices and rising energy prices. Core Scientific mines for proof-of-work cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. The process involves powering data centers across the country, packed with highly specialized computers that crunch math equations in order to validate transactions and simultaneously create new tokens. The process requires expensive equipment, some technical know-how, and a lot of electricity. Core’s market capitalization had fallen to $78 million as of end of trading Tuesday, down from a $4.3 billion valuation in July 2021 when the company went public through a special purpose acquisition vehicle, or SPAC. The stock has fallen more than 98% in the last year. The company is still generating positive cashflow, but that cash is not sufficient to repay the financing debt owed on equipment it was leasing, according to a person familiar with the company’s situation. The company will not liquidate, but will continue to operate normally while reaching a deal with senior security noteholders, which hold the bulk of the company’s debt, according to this person, who declined to be named discussing confidential company matters. Core had previously said in a filing in October that holders of its common stock could suffer “a total loss of their investment,” but that may not be the case if the overall industry recovers. The deal cut with Core’s convertible note holders is structured in such a way that if, in fact, the business environment for bitcoin improves, common equity holders may not get totally wiped out. The company also disclosed that it would not make its debt payments coming due in late Oct. and early Nov. — and said that creditors were free to sue the company for nonpayment.

Eleven Months After Going Public via SPAC, Texas-Based Bitcoin Miner Core Scientific Files for Bankruptcy - by Wolf Richter -  Austin-based Bitcoin miner and crypto-hosting-platform Core Scientific – one of the largest publicly traded crypto miners with data centers in several states, including Texas – filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy on December 21, just about exactly 11 months after going public via merger with a SPAC on January 20, 2022.The day the merger with the SPAC was completed on January 20, the stock had a market cap of $2.8 billion, already down sharply from the peak of $4.5 billion after the announcement of the merger but before the completion of the merger. Today, forget it. Shares are at a few cents (data via YCharts):  On November 22, it reported that it had lost $435 million in the third quarter, on $162 million in revenues; and that it had lost $1.7 billion in the first nine months, on $519 million in revenues. So now Core Scientific is another one of the heroes in my pantheon of Imploded Stocks to have filed for bankruptcy. Don’t worry, no one is going to jail here. Regulators slept through all this. This is just another act in the superb hype-and-hoopla show that is drawing to a close. A restructuring deal with a group of creditors representing “over 66%” of $550 million in secured convertible notes has been agreed on. Stockholders have already kissed their money goodbye because they eagerly believed what they were told at the time they bought this stuff, eagerly participating in what I call consensual hallucination.  There are no victims here, just investors who lost money because they eagerly participated in consensual hallucination. Money-printing and interest rate repression by the Fed has turned investors’  brains to mush. That’s how it goes. In the bankruptcy filing today, the company blamed:

  • The “prolonged decline in the price of bitcoin”
  • The increase in electricity costs to power its data centers
  • The default of its biggest customer, crypto lender Celsius Networks, which filed for bankruptcy in July. The entire crypto space is so interconnected that, as I’ve been saying, they went to heaven together, and now they’re going to heck together.
  • Its own decision to have “significantly overcommitted for construction costs to build out additional mining capacity.”

The company has been a great bankruptcy candidate because it has over $1 billion in debt in addition to other liabilities. It defaulted on $275 million in equipment financing. It failed to pay construction contractors for $70 million in invoices whereupon they asserted mechanic’s liens. It’s entangled in litigation with a former executive. And then, the stiffed equipment lenders accelerated the debt they were owed which triggered a “cross default” on the $550 million in secured convertible notes. In the chart above, the little nipple last week was when B. Riley Financial offered the company new financing of $72 million to keep it out of bankruptcy court. B. Riley had lent $42 million unsecured to Core Scientific, which it defaulted on in October. B. Riley’s $42 million loan is now listed among the unsecured creditors in the bankruptcy filing. So good luck. Being an unsecured creditor in a bankruptcy like this is not fun. Before the bankruptcy filing, the company worked out a deal with a group of creditors representing “over 66%” of the secured convertible notes that it defaulted on. This group – this is the playground of distressed debt investors that buy such debt for cents on the dollar – agreed to provide a Debtor-in-Possession (DIP) loan of about $57 million as part of the bankruptcy to fund the company during the bankruptcy proceeding, and it agreed to support another DIP loan of $18 million. The secured convertible noteholders will then end up with 97% of the equity of the restructured company when it emerges from bankruptcy, according to their proposal. The existing stockholders might get some crumbs and warrants, if anything. If the proposal makes it through the proceedings, it will reduce the company’s debt by hundreds of millions of dollars and would lower its interest expenses. But reducing the interest expense isn’t going to help all that much: In Q3, when it lost $435 million, only $25 million were interest expense. So maybe the secured noteholders will try to sell those new shares quickly to the public before the company sinks into bankruptcy for a second time?

U.S. regulators warn about risks of deeper crypto-Wall Street ties -   The top U.S. financial regulators are worried about the prospect of deeper ties between digital-asset firms and Wall Street. The Financial Stability Oversight Council said Friday that interconnections between crypto firms and traditional financial institutions remain limited. However, entanglements could rapidly increase and put the broader system at risk, they warned in an annual report.   U.S. officials have long been concerned about looming threats from the digital-asset industry, much of which operates in regulatory gray areas. The issues have been underscored this year amid market turmoil, the bankruptcy of crypto lenders and, most recently, the collapse of the exchange giant FTX.

Basel Committee finalizes guidelines for supervising bank crypto exposure - The world's top bank regulatory organization has finalized its guidelines for supervising bank exposure to digital assets. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision rolled out the structure Friday after securing support from its Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision, the committee's chief oversight body. Overall, the finalization has little impact in the U.S. today, Chen Xu, a New York-based lawyer with the law firm Debevoise & Plimpton said, as banks here are prohibited from holding many of the types of assets regulated within the framework. Even stablecoins, which national banks are permitted to issue and hold, have little to no presence in the U.S. banking system, he added.

The decadelong transition away from Libor is almost complete  -- — Breaking up is hard to do. Breaking up with an interest rate that is baked into millions of contracts worth trillions of dollars is even harder, but 2022 was the year the financial system proved that it can be done.Libor, or the London interbank offered rate, evolved out of the rampant inflationary cycle of the 1980s as a way for complex financial contracts to hedge against rising or falling interest rates. The benchmark was based on unsecured overnight loans that banks would make to other banks to meet liquidity needs and came to represent banks' fundamental cost of funds all over the world. But in 2012 it was discovered that because fewer and fewer banks were making or receiving those kinds of overnight loans, the Libor rate became easier to manipulate and many banks and bankers were ultimatelyfined billions of dollars for colluding to fix the Libor rate to their advantage. But while there was widespread agreement that Libor could no longer serve as a reliable interest rate benchmark, it was by no means assured that something else would be able to easily step in and take its place. What follows is a review of the decade between when the Libor scandal first broke and the sunsetting of the last Libor rates next year.

Debt investors losing millions on Libor switch start to fight back - The request from Allied Universal to its lenders last month seemed innocuous and logical enough. With the deadline rapidly approaching to phase out Libor as the benchmark for trillions of dollars of floating-rate debt, the provider of security guards and janitors wanted to start using a replacement to set the rate on more than $4 billion of loans. Under the terms of its credit agreement, the company didn't even need its debtholders to formally sign off on the plan — it just needed more than half of them to refrain from objecting. It couldn't even manage that.

Spike In Fed Discount Window Usage Hints At Looming Bank Crisis -Six months after the Fed's Quantitative Tightening started, the Fed's balance sheet has shrunk by just over $400 billion, less than 10% of its massive expansion in the post-covid era when it nearly doubled in just days $4 trillion to $7 trillion, and then grew another $2 trillion over the next year  ... with reserves declining by $1 trillion in the past year, as reverse repos actually increased by half that number.And while one can debate the nuances of an $8.5 trillion Fed balance sheet, or the reserve/reverse ratio relationship until one is blue in the face, one thing is certain: now that the world has been in an "ample reserve" framework since the launch of QE1, there are certain things that are not supposed to happen: one of them is the use of the Fed's emergency USD swap line. If, however, such an instrument is used, as was the case in mid-October, we can immediately deduce that some bank is suffering a crushing USD-funding squeeze (one whose risk is greater than the risk of being slapped with the stigma of using a FX swap). That's precisely what happened with Swiss bank giant Credit Suisse, which we subsequently learned was being crushed by an $88 billion bank run, and only the secret backdoor bailout of the SNB and the Fed kept it solvent (preventing a far greater financial crisis).  Another instrument that should never be used in an ample-reserve world, is the Fed's Discount Window: this "archaic" secured rescue loan arrangement, one in which banks obtain emergency liquidity from the Fed in exchange for loans, is a legacy of the pre-Lehman era, when its mere usage was enough to spark a terminal bank run for any recipient bank. One can argue that the launch of QE was specifically designed to reduce and/or eliminate the use of the discount window by US banks (after all, the post-2009 tidal wave of Fed-created reserves effectively assures that every US financial institution is swimming in money). That, together with the famous "discount window stigma" effect when the mere speculation one is using emergency loans from the Fed was enough to spark a bank run, is why there were zero discount window borrowings until March 2020 when the entire financial system almost collapse again, yet when a relatively modest $50BN in discount window borrowings forced the Fed to unleash multiple daily multi-trillion repo operations, and hundreds of billions in daily and weekly liquidity injections in the form of QE. Yes, the discount window usage in 2020 quickly faded away but not before the Fed's balance sheet doubled again, from $4 trillion to $8 trillion.The problem is that if one fast forwards to today, the discount window is again being used aggressively, and in the last week was just over $6.2 billion, after peaking at $9.5 billion, two weeks ago, the most since June 2020.The spike in Discount Window usage has even stumped JPMorgan whose rates strategist Teresa Ho wrote last Friday (her full must-read thoughts available to pro subs) echoed our thoughts above on the "Ample reserve" framework, noting that "there are still over $3tn of reserves and over $2tn of cash at the Fed’s ON RRP, so in no way does this suggest there are systemic liquidity concerns. Indeed, that wholesale funding rates have remained well-behaved even heading into the final weeks of the year suggests as such", and yet "it is surprising that in spite of the available amount liquidity in the system, usage at the discount window still increased. Borrowing at the discount window is often seen as a last resort for banks in terms of sourcing funding, and hence there is an implicit stigma associated with it. Whether that stigma is justified or not is an open question."

Gruenberg, FDIC board members confirmed by Senate — The full Senate confirmed Martin Gruenberg as the chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in a 45-39 vote.   The chamber also added two Republicans — Travis Hill as its vice chairman and Jonathan McKernan as an FDIC board member — by a voice vote, giving the agency a full five-member board for the first time since 2015.  It's Gruenberg's second time serving as a Senate-confirmed chairman of the agency, and gives him and the Democratic majority further cover to pursue policies such as tightening up bank merger approvals and the resolution plans of large regional banks, and insulating the banking system from the volatility of the cryptocurrency market.

Regulators flag problems with Credit Suisse and BNP's living wills — In a joint-review issued Friday, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. identified problems with two institutions' targeted bankruptcy resolution plans, commonly referred to as ' 'living wills.' Of the 71 bank resolution plans reviewed by the agencies, only BNP Paribas and Credit Suisse faced any supervisory problems. The regulators said that Credit Suisse's plan had shortcomings "pertain[ing] to resolution planning, cash flow forecasting capabilities and governance for their U.S. operations." The agencies further characterized the bank's plan as poorly constructed, lacking, "the core elements of capital, liquidity, and the Covered Company's plan for executing recapitalizations as required by the Resolution Plan Rule." The agencies say the bank did not clearly outline its methods for identifying client information needed to continue payment and clearing services, nor did it assess the impact of a resolution process on its clients and associates. The review indicated the bank's , "most significant omission was the failure to adequately describe the liquidity and capital capabilities" that are necessary to execute the firm's U.S. resolution strategy."

CFPB orders Wells Fargo to pay $3.7 billion amid widespread consumer banking problems - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is ordering Wells Fargo to pay $3.7 billion for violating consumer protection laws — a major penalty that also clears some of the megabank's long-standing legal troubles. The order covers "widespread mismanagement" of auto loans, mortgages and deposit accounts, with the agency saying the $1.9 trillion-asset bank wrongfully foreclosed on homes, illegally repossessed vehicles and charged customers surprise fees. "Wells Fargo's rinse-repeat cycle of violating the law has harmed millions of American families," CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a news release Tuesday, calling the action an "initial step for accountability and long-term reform of this repeat offender."

Chopra warns Wells Fargo is not out of the woods after huge settlement - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's $3.7 billion order against Wells Fargo on Tuesday includes some positives for the San Francisco bank. It acknowledges progress made under CEO Charlie Scharf in returning money to millions of consumers the megabank harmed over the years. And in analysts' view, it is one more step forward on what has been a long and rocky path of trying to fix the megabank's lengthy list of regulatory problems. But the enforcement action also came with a warning from CFPB Director Rohit Chopra: The agency isn't pleased with the bank's overall progress and may have more to say on the matter.

JPMorgan announces new climate targets covering aviation, cement - JPMorgan Chase is upping its climate ambitions, announcing a slew of new emissions reductions targets for its financing to carbon-intensive businesses, including airlines and cement manufacturers. The largest U.S. bank said in this year's climate report published Thursday that it plans to reduce the carbon intensity of its aviation financing portfolio by 36% by 2030 from a 2021 baseline. In the same period, JPMorgan said it aims to cut the carbon intensity of funding to iron ore and steel companies by 31%, and by 29% for cement sector financings. "This is proof that we are doing the work we need to do, setting a foundation with clients on climate and making progress on the promises we made," Heather Zichal, JPMorgan's global head of sustainability, said in an interview.

Why the conservative backlash to banks' ESG stands gained steam in 2022 – After U.S. banks spent years rethinking their stances on environmental, social and governance issues in response to pressure from progressives, conservatives struck back in 2022.Republican politicians at the state and federal levels targeted banks over their stances on issues ranging from guns to abortion. And corporate diversity initiatives faced challenges both from shareholders and in the courts.But perhaps the biggest flashpoint was climate finance. Conservative politicians announced retaliatory measures over perceived boycotts of fossil-fuel lending and launched investigations into global decarbonization commitments made by banks.Banks have traditionally preferred to avoid taking stances on hot-button social issues, but at a time of high political polarization, they may feel increasing pressure to choose sides.One analyst said that the competing demands from the political left and right create a "Goldilocks dynamic.""As banks move to assuage ESG concerns, they are at the same time, in an almost inversely proportional way, leading to a weakening of support from their traditional allies in the GOP," Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at the investment bank BTIG, said earlier this year. "It's never going to be enough or the right temperature for both sides."What follows is a recap of the conservative backlash against banks' ESG efforts in 2022, as well as a preview of what's likely to come next year.

Marijuana banking bill excluded from year-end spending bill -Legislation to open banking services to marijuana businesses was left out of a must-pass government funding package, ending a year-end effort to move it to President Biden's desk, a person familiar with the decision said. The bill's Senate sponsors, Oregon Democrat Jeff Merkley and Montana Republican Steve Daines, had pushed to include a version of the SAFE Banking Act in the roughly $1.7 trillion funding measure but ultimately it did not make the cut. This is the third failed attempt this year to get the measure passed with a larger package. Businesses operating in states where marijuana is legal have faced barriers to financial institutions because it remains illegal at the federal level, forcing many of these businesses to deal only in cash, or create workarounds to the banking system — the most popular of which was recently shut down. The SAFE Banking Act would prohibit federal regulators from penalizing banks and other depository institutions for providing services to legal cannabis businesses. It would have been a huge boon to marijuana companies, which have lobbied for the bill as the least controversial form of federal legislation that they've sought over the past years.

BankThink: CFPB should protect and enable the most vulnerable in its open banking rule - American Banker - What's the most popular financial product among low-income Americans? Your mind might jump to popular fintech and peer-to-peer apps like Chime, Cash App or PayPal, which have grown rapidly in recent years. You might think of prepaid cards like Green Dot or Netspend. Or, given the amount of press and regulatory scrutiny afforded them, you might think it is a payday lender. In actuality, it's none of these. By a landslide, the most popular financial product among low-income Americans is the EBT card, used by more than 41 million people each month to receive Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits. In 2022, more than $100 billion in SNAP benefits will be spent using EBT cards; that funding all goes toward enabling low-income families to purchase more food for their families. SNAP is an indispensable part of the financial lives of tens of millions of Americans.

How 2022 hastened the decline of overdraft fees - What started as a trickle of overdraft-fee policy changes in 2021 became a flood in 2022 as a growing number of large and midsize banks made their policies more consumer-friendly. The list includes megabanks like Citigroup, which this year became the largest U.S. bank to eliminate overdraft fees entirely, and Wells Fargo, which recently launched a new small-dollar loan program to help customers avoid overdraft charges. It also includes regional banks such as Charlotte, North Carolina-based Truist Financial, which dropped all fees tied to transactions that get rejected because the customer lacks sufficient funds, as well as charges for overdraft protection transfers. The pressure on banks to reform overdraft policies has been mounting for years, with consumer advocates and lawmakers arguing that such policies are particularly harmful to lower-income customers. More recently, Biden-era regulatory changes and competition from lower-cost online competitors have put pressure on large banks to reconsider their strategies. Here's a look back at American Banker coverage from 2022 that highlights the evolution of overdraft policy.

Mr. Gensler, the U.S. Stock Market Structure Is an Institutionalized Wealth Transfer System  By Pam Martens and Russ Martens -The Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Gensler, announced in June that he was going to tackle the structure of the U.S. stock market – ostensibly to make it fairer to the little guy. His plans were released last Wednesday in a mountain of paper that even Wall Street veterans are having difficulty digesting. (See here, here, here, here, and here.)While the overall thrust of the proposed changes appears to be to provide more transparency to order execution, the proposals fail to address key structural issues that have allowed the U.S. stock market to operate as an institutionalized wealth transfer system — moving vast sums of money from the pockets of average Americans to the richest one percent. Both Congress and the SEC were put on notice on March 30, 2014 that the U.S. stock market is rigged. That’s the date that bestselling author and Wall Street veteran, Michael Lewis, was interviewed on 60 Minutes about the allegations in his just released book, “Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt.”The interview opens with Steve Kroft asking Lewis what the headline is for his new book. Lewis responds: “The United States stock market, the most iconic market in global capitalism, is rigged.”When asked to explain just who it is that’s rigging the stock market, Lewis states that it’s a “combination of these stock exchanges, the big Wall Street banks and high-frequency traders.”“Flash Boys” revealed in great detail how U.S. stock exchanges are selling access to trading data that the general public does not have access to by allowing high frequency trading firms and Wall Street megabanks and their brokerage firms to co-locate their trading computers alongside the computers of the stock exchange.These co-location computer services can cost tens of thousands of dollars a month – pricing out everybody but the billionaire hedge fund owners and the big players on Wall Street. In turn, it provides just these privileged players with the earliest access to trading data, thus delivering an unequal playing field. (See the New York Stock Exchange’s co-location price list for 2021. Prices begin on page 35.) The New York Stock Exchange was at one time the most respected stock exchange in the world. It’s now become a pay-to-play venue for hedge funds, high frequency traders and Wall Street mega banks. In 2014 we found a Google cache of a promotional piece the NYSE had directed at high frequency traders. It boasts that it is offering a “fully managed co-location space next to NYSE Euronext’s US trading engines in the new state-of-the-art data center.” The NYSE says it is for “High frequency and proprietary trading firms, hedge funds and others who need high-speed market access for a competitive edge.”

Consumer groups defend CFPB's anti-discrimination policy in brief - Seven consumer advocacy groups asked a federal court to dismiss a lawsuit filed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce against the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, arguing that discrimination in consumer financial products is pervasive.The seven consumer groups filed an amicus brief Friday with the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas asking the court to dismiss the suit, Chamber v. CFPB. The U.S. Chamber and three bank trade groups sued the CFPB in September alleging the bureau violated the Administrative Procedure Act when it adopted a policy in March that, for the first time, claimed discrimination on the basis of age, race or sex — regardless of intent — violates the federal prohibition on "unfair, deceptive or abusive acts or practices," known as UDAAP. The business trade groups said the change amounted to a power grab that was "arbitrary" and "capricious," in violation of the APA. The six advocates claim that financial institutions have a long history of preventing people of color and other marginalized populations from participating fully and fairly in the mainstream financial economy.

The Credit Card Competition Act will harm military families  - The lame-duck Senate recently considered and rejected an amendment to the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act that could have inflicted unintended financial harm on our nation's military families. That amendment is the Credit Card Competition Act of 2022. Why was it an amendment to the NDAA? Because its sponsors, Sens. Dick Durbin and Roger Marshall, know the only way their proposal will become law is if it's attached to the only legislation that must pass before the end of this Congress. Since it didn't pass as part of the NDAA, its sponsors are now looking for other "must-pass" legislation. Last-minute funding bills — continuing resolutions or omnibus appropriations bills — will be their most likely targets. Americans generally, and military families in particular, should be concerned about this proposal because it's a wolf in sheep's clothing. Beneath its promise to lower consumer costs by increasing competition among credit card payment networks lies the significant risk that not only will Americans not see a penny of lower prices, but they will instead see higher credit interest rates, lower credit availability, or both.

Intercontinental Exchange buying Black Knight for $13.1B In a deal that is likely to arouse antitrust scrutiny by the Biden administration, Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the mortgage industry's most widely used loan origination system, is buying Black Knight, which has a similar market penetration on the servicing side. The 80% cash and 20% stock transaction values Black Knight at $85 per share, for a market value of $13.1 billion. Intercontinental Exchange expects cost synergies of $200 million after the deal is completed. The first one-third will be realized in the first year, the next two-thirds by year three, and full synergies in five years. Investor questions linger around potential antitrust challenges, but John Campbell, an analyst at Stephens believes that the deal could get through a Hart-Scott-Rodino regulatory review.

Black Knight acquisition needs antitrust scrutiny: CHLA | National Mortgage NewsThe Community Home Lenders Association is calling on the Justice Department to undertake a comprehensive antitrust review of the Intercontinental Exchange-Black Knight deal, looking for divestitures or even a denial of the transaction. Given the size of both companies in loan origination system technology and Black Knight's dominance among mortgage servicing platforms, the federal government, including the Federal Trade Commission, were expected to take a hard look at the $13.1 billion agreement. It is not just the vertical integration of those systems that the CHLA is worried about, but also other overlapping services provided by the two companies. An example is in product and pricing engines, where Black Knight owns Optimal Blue while ICE offers one embedded in Encompass.

CFPB's QM rule under scrutiny after dust-up over bank statement loans - Bank statement loans are coming under renewed scrutiny due to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's guidelines that require mortgage lenders to fully verify the income of self-employed borrowers. Due diligence lawyers are scouring the mortgage landscape for problems in home loans on the theory that a recession in 2023 will force some borrowers into default and foreclosure. Lenders of bank statement loans are at particular risk of being sued by the borrower for failure to appropriately determine their ability to repay the loan. At issue is whether mortgage lenders are complying with the CFPB's Qualified Mortgage rule, including a preamble and commentary that went into effect in October, which some say make it harder for lenders to verify any bank statement loans. Alan Lindeke, the general counsel at Change Home Mortgage and an industry veteran who has worked as a senior compliance officer at Bank of California and Impac Mortgage, caused a brouhaha last month by claiming that most mortgage lenders that originate bank statement loans are not complying with the CFPB's QM rule. Lindeke alleged that lenders could face up to $10 billion a year in liability if consumers sue them for failing to document their income. However, Lindeke later conceded that the amount was "completely hypothetical" and that borrowers rarely sue their lender except in defense of a foreclosure.

Senate passes legislation to modernize VA appraisals A bill that requires the Department of Veterans Affairs to update its appraisal rules passed the Senate on Tuesday. In recent weeks there had been murmurs among lobbyists that the legislation, the Improving Access to the VA Home Loan Benefit Act of 2022, would be pushed through during the lame-duck session. It was passed unanimously and now heads to President Biden's desk to be signed into law. Under the legislation, which was introduced in mid-May by Sen. Dan Sullivan R-Alaska, and Rep. Mike Bost, R-Illinois, the VA will be required to update regulations, requirements and guidance related to appraisals. The agency will also have to codify the use of desktop appraisals.

 FHFA will require preapproval for new Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac products - The Federal Housing Finance Agency published a rule Tuesday that requires Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to provide advance notice of new activities and obtain approval prior to launching new products. "The final rule clarifies how FHFA will conduct assessments of new activities and products proposed by the Enterprises," the agency's director, Sandra Thompson, said in a press release. "Enterprise activities can have significant effects on the mortgage market, consumers, and industry stakeholders, and today's rule further refines FHFA's process to ensure activities continue to serve the Enterprises' mission while maintaining high standards of safety and soundness." A notice of the proposed rulemaking was first published by the FHFA on Nov. 9, 2020, and received 17 comments, the agency said. The final rule goes into effect 60 days after publication and will replace an interim rule in place since July 2, 2009.

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in November --  Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in November was 0.66%, unchanged from 0.66% October. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 1.24% in November 2021.  reddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus.The serious delinquency rate was at 0.60% just prior to the pandemic - this is almost back to that level. Note that multi-family delinquencies have been increasing and were at 0.15% in November.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 0.70% in November" -- Note: This is as of November 30th.From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 0.70% in November - The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained flat relative to the prior month at 0.70% as of November 30, 2022. According to MBA’s estimate, 350,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance increased 1 basis point to 0.32%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased 5 basis points to 1.46%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) declined 6 basis points to 0.97%.“There were pockets of weakness in the November data, despite the forbearance rate remaining unchanged and the overall loan performance of serviced loans staying mostly flat,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The forbearance rate for Ginnie Mae loans increased for the fourth consecutive month, and the overall performance of the portfolio declined for the third consecutive month. Furthermore, the performance of government post-forbearance workouts also weakened.”Added Walsh, “With many indicators pointing to a recession and higher unemployment in 2023, many of the most vulnerable homeowners will be those with FHA, VA, or other government loans. Loss mitigation options may help to ease the financial hardship for these homeowners.” This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. The share of forbearance plans had been decreasing, although the percent in forbearance was unchanged in November. At the end of November, there were about 350,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.

MBA:Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey — Mortgage applications increased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 16, 2022. ... The Refinance Index increased 6 percent from the previous week and was 85 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 36 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “The Federal Reserve raised its short-term rate target last week, but longer-term rates, including mortgage rates, declined for the week, with the 30-year conforming rate reaching 6.34 percent – its lowest level since September,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Refinance application volume increased slightly in response but was still about 85 percent below year-ago levels. This is a particularly slow time of year for homebuying, so it is not surprising that purchase applications did not move much in response to lower mortgage rates.” Added Fratantoni: “The latest data on the housing market show that homebuilders are pulling back the pace of new construction in response to low levels of traffic, and we expect this weakness in demand will persist in 2023, as the U.S. is likely to enter a recession. However, if mortgage rates continue to trend down, as we are forecasting, more buyers are likely to return to the market later in the year, as affordability improves with both lower rates and slower home-price growth.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) decreased to 6.34 percent from 6.42 percent, with points decreasing to 0.59 from 0.64 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990. With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply this year. The refinance index is up slightly from the low in November 2022 (an extreme low). The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

San Francisco & Silicon Valley Housing Markets Puke Huge Price Drops, as Startups, Crypto, Tech, Social Media Make Total Mess -- By Wolf Richter - San Francisco and Silicon Valley are now in the solid leadership role of the housing bust playing out in California with sales collapsing and prices heading south from the peak in April at an astonishing pace.Just about everything that could come together came together. After a two-year outflux of workers due to working from anywhere, there came the collapse of the startup and crypto scenes, starting in 2021 and continuing unabated, leading to the early entries into my pantheon of Imploded Stocks. In early 2022 came the spike in mortgage rates. In mid-2022 came the downturn in employment at Big Tech. By that time, the Fed had been hiking its policy rates relentlessly, and Quantitative Tightening had kicked off. This was punctuated over the past two months by the chaotic dismantling of the workforce at Twitter and its ecosystem.Local budgets have fallen into deep deficits – though most are still flush with cash from the pandemic funds received from the federal government and the state.Vacant office space that is on the market for lease and sublease continues to balloon, while landlords have started to file for huge reductions in assessment values to lower their property taxes, which is going to cut revenues further.This comes garnished by stories in the New York Times that Twitter stopped paying rent on its leased office spaces, and that it was instructed not to pay vendors. At least one of those unpaid vendors – a Silicon Valley company whose software Twitter had licensed – filed a lawsuit last week in San Francisco Superior Court for nonpayment. It stated, “shortly after Musk’s purchase of Twitter closed, Twitter refused to pay the outstanding quarterly invoice, which was due on November 30, 2022, and Twitter disclaimed any obligation to pay any future invoices…”These are all signs that the housing market is going to get a lot messier. Prices have plunged the most in San Francisco, followed by the Silicon Valley counties of San Mateo and Santa Clara.

Housing December 19th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 2.5% Week-over-week - Active inventory decreased last week.  Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years (usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter):       Altos reports inventory is down 2.5% week-over-week and down 9.6% from the peak on October 28th.   This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.   As of December 16th, inventory was at 522 thousand (7-day average), compared to 535 thousand the prior week.  Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 60.2% from 326 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is up 15.0% from 454 thousand.  However, compared to 3 years ago (2019), inventory is down 35.0% from 804 thousand. Here are the inventory milestones I’ve been watching for with the Altos data:
1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4, 2022, for Altos) ✅
2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 20, 2022, for Altos) ✅
3. Inventory up compared to 2020 (happened on October 7, 2022, for Altos) ✅
4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 35.0%).
Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4).  The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019. A key will be if inventory declines slower than usual during the winter months. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

US Existing Home Sales "Frozen" In November, Biggest Annual Drop 'Since Lehman' - Following yesterday's dismal housing starts and building permits prints (which followed an ugly homebuilder sentiment signal), analysts expected US existing home sales to tumble 5.2% MoM in November. In fact, things were worse with a 7.7% MoM plunge (the biggest drop since Feb 22 and the 10th straight monthly decline). This is the biggest YoY drop since Lehman and the longest streak of sales declines since 1999... This disappointing drop in existing home sales happened despite the fact that mortgage rates have now fallen for 5 straight weeks... Graphs Source: Bloomberg Under the hood, the West saw the biggest drop in sales...

  • Existing-home sales in the Northeast trailed off 6.6% from September to an annual rate of 570,000 in October, a decline of 23.0% from October 2021. The median price in the Northeast was $408,700, an increase of 8.0% from the previous year.
  • Existing-home sales in the Midwest retracted 5.3% from the previous month to an annual rate of 1,080,000 in October, falling 25.5% from the prior year. The median price in the Midwest was $274,500, up 5.9% from October 2021.
  • In the South, existing-home sales declined 4.8% in October from September to an annual rate of 1,980,000, a 27.2% decrease from this time last year. The median price in the South was $346,300, an increase of 8.0% from one year ago.
  • Existing-home sales in the West waned 9.1% from September to an annual rate of 800,000 in October, down 37.5% from one year ago. The median price in the West was $588,400, a 5.3% increase from October 2021.

But prices remain higher as there appears no pressure to cut (i.e. few liquidations yet).The number of homes for sale fell to 1.14 million in the month, the NAR data showed. While there tends to be fewer listings of homes in November and through the winter months, Yun said inventory remains near historic lows.Given the slower sales pace, it would take 3.3 months to sell all the homes on the market, up from 2.1 months a year earlier. Realtors see anything below five months of supply as indicative of a tight market.The median selling price was up 3.5% from a year earlier to $370,700. That’s the weakest appreciation since 2020.The most expensive end of the housing market saqw the biggest sales declines...

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.09 million SAAR in November -  - From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Dipped 7.7% in November  Existing-home sales declined for the tenth month in a row in November, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions recorded month-over-month and year-over-year declines. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – waned 7.7% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November. Year-over-year, sales dwindled by 35.4% (down from 6.33 million in November 2021). ... Total housing inventory registered at the end of November was 1.14 million units, which was down 6.6% from October, but up 2.7% from one year ago (1.11 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace, which was identical to October, but up from 2.1 months in November 2021. . This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. Sales in November (4.09 million SAAR) were down 7.7% from the previous month and were 35.4% below the November 2021 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.14 million in November from 1.22 million in October. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was up 2.7% year-over-year (blue) in November compared to November 2021. Months of supply (red) was unchanged at 3.3 months in November from 3.3 months in October. This was below the consensus forecast.

Home sales tumbled more than 7% in November, the 10th straight month of declines - Sales of existing homes fell 7.7% in November compared with October, according to the National Association of Realtors. The seasonally adjusted annualized pace was 4.09 million units. That is weaker than the 4.17 million units housing analysts had predicted, and it was a much deeper fall than usual monthly declines. Sales were down 35.4% year over year, marking the tenth straight month of declines. That was the weakest pace since November 2010, with the exception of May 2020, when sales fell sharply, albeit briefly, during the early days of the Covid pandemic. In November 2010, the nation was mired in the great recession as well as a foreclosure crisis. These counts are based on closings, so the contracts were likely signed in September and October, when mortgage rates last peaked before coming down slightly last month. Rates are now about one percentage point lower than they were at the end of October, but still a little more than twice what they were at the start of this year. “In essence, the residential real estate market was frozen in November, resembling the sales activity seen during the Covid-19 economic lockdowns in 2020,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “The principal factor was the rapid increase in mortgage rates, which hurt housing affordability and reduced incentives for homeowners to list their homes. Plus, available housing inventory remains near historic lows.” At the end of November there were 1.14 million homes for sale, which is an increase of 2.7% from November of last year, but at the current sales pace it represents a still-low 3.3 month supply. Low supply kept prices higher than a year ago, up 3.5% to a median sale price of $370,700, but those annual gains are shrinking fast, well off the double digit gains seen earlier this year. It is still the highest November price the Realtors have ever recorded, and, at 129 straight months, it is the longest running streak of year-over-year price gains since the realtors began tracking this in 1968. Roughly 23% of homes sold above list price, due to tight supply.

Home Sales Melt Down Nationally to Depths of Housing Bust 1. Prices -10% in 5 Months. Cash Buyers, Investors Massively Pull Back - by Wolf Richter - Sales of all types of previously owned houses, condos, and co-ops plunged by 7.7% in November from October, the 10th month in a row of declines, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales of 4.09 million homes, nearly matching the lockdown-low in May 2020. And beyond May 2020, it was the lowest rate of sales since deep into Housing Bust 1, November 2010, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.Year-over-year, sales fell by 35%, the 16th month in a row of year-over-year declines. Compared to the recent free-money peak in October 2020, sales were down 39% (historic data viaYCharts): The above sales figures are “seasonally adjusted annual rates” of sales, so what sales would be like for an entire year at the current rate of sales. Actual sales in November, not adjusted, came in at 326,000 homes, also down 35% from November 2021 (503,000 homes).  Cash buyers are massively pulling back. All-cash sales accounted for 26%, or for about 85,000 homes, of the total 326,000 homes sold in November, as measured by actual sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate. This was up from a share of 24% in November 2021. But given the much higher number of homes sales in November 2021 (503,000 sales), the 24% share of all-cash sales amounted to 120,000 all-cash sales. In other words, the actual number of all-cash sales plunged by 35,000 year-over-year, though the share of all-cash sales inched up by 2 percentage points amid plunging overall sales. Individual investors or second home buyers are also massively pulling back. They purchased 14% of all homes sold, or about 45,640 homes (actual, not seasonally adjusted annual rate), down by nearly 30,000 homes from November 2021 when they bought 75,450 homes (for a 15% share). Cash buyers and investors are like everyone else: They too see what’s going on in this housing market.Sales of single-family houses plunged by 7.6% in November from October, and by 35% year-over-year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.65 million houses.Sales of condos and co-ops plunged by 8.3% in November from October, and by 37% year-over-year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 440,000 units.Sales plunged in all regions, but plunged by the most in the West and the South. Month-over-month and year-over-year:

  • Northeast: -7.0% mom; -28.4% yoy.
  • Midwest: -5.6% mom; -30.6% yoy.
  • South: -7.1% mom; -35.0% yoy.
  • West: -12.5% mom; -45.7% yoy.

The median price of all types of homes whose sales closed in October fell for the fifth month in a row, to $370,700, down 10.4% from the peak in June. This drop slashed the year-over-year gain to just 3.5%, down from a year-over-year gain of 15% a year ago. Only a portion of this June-November decline is seasonal. Over the five years before the pandemic, the average June-November decline was 5.8%, with the maximum decline in 2015 of 6.9%. This shows that the current 10.4% decline goes well beyond even the maximum seasonal decline. This is also confirmed by the rapidly shrinking year-over-year price gain, now down to just 3.5% (historic data via YCharts): Active listings (total inventory for sale minus the properties with pending sales) were roughly stable with the prior month, at 751,500 homes in November, but up by 47% from a year ago and the highest since August 2020. Active listings remain relatively low as many potential sellers are praying for a magnificent Fed pivot that will slash mortgage rates back to 3% in no time, and they haven’t put their vacant home on the market because they’re still thinking that this too shall pass; and if the home has been on the market for a while and got no nibbles, they’ll pull it off the market, particularly during the holiday period (data via realtor.com).

CoreLogic: "Annual Single-Family Rent Price Growth Falls to Single Digits in October" -- From CoreLogic: Annual US Single-Family Rent Price Growth Falls to Single Digits in October, CoreLogic Reports --   U.S. rental price growth slowed for the sixth straight month on an annual basis in October to 8.8%, the lowest rate of appreciation in more than a year but still three times higher than the pre-pandemic level. Despite the continued cooling, a shortage of available properties is keeping costs elevated, a trend that is partially fueling year-over-year gains in the lower-priced tier. Miami led the nation for rent growth for the 15th consecutive month at 16.3%, but gains there have slowed dramatically since the spring when they hit 40.8%. Single-family rents decreased again on a monthly basis in October but were still up year over year,” said Molly Boesel, principal economist at CoreLogic. “While rents typically experience a seasonal decline in October, this year’s decrease was larger than average and could point to prices slowing more sharply than expected in the coming months.”  This graph from CoreLogic shows the year-over-year change in rents for several price tiers. This index was reported to be up 10.2% YoY in September - and is slowing quickly.

New Home Sales Increase to 640,000 Annual Rate in November -  The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 640 thousand.  The previous three months were revised down sharply. Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.8 percent above the revised October rate of 605,000, but is 15.3 percent below the November 2021 estimate of 756,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. New home sales are below pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in November to 8.6 months from 9.3 months in October. The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020. This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal). The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In November 2022 (red column), 46 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 54 thousand homes were sold in November. The all-time high for November was 86 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for November was 20 thousand in 2010. This was above expectations, however sales in the three previous months were revised down

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.427 million Annual Rate in November -- From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions:  Privately‐owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,427,000. This is 0.5 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,434,000 and is 16.4 percent below the November 2021 rate of 1,706,000. Single‐family housing starts in November were at a rate of 828,000; this is 4.1 percent below the revised October figure of 863,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 584,000.  Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,342,000. This is 11.2 percent below the revised October rate of 1,512,000 and is 22.4 percent below the November 2021 rate of 1,729,000. Single‐family authorizations in November were at a rate of 781,000; this is 7.1 percent below the revised October figure of 841,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 509,000 in November.The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in November compared to October. Multi-family starts were up 23.3% year-over-year in November.  Single-family starts (red) decreased in November and were down 32.1% year-over-year. The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery. Total housing starts in November were above expectations, however, starts in September and October were revised down, combined.

November housing permits and starts: the biggest news is not in the headlines - The report on housing construction for November was very much a tale of two very different trends - and the most important one will almost certainly be under-reported. Housing permits issued declined to 1.342 million annualized, the lowest number since June 2020, and before the pandemic the lowest since July 2019. The even more reliable single family permits declined to 781,000 annualized, the lowest since May 2020, and before that November 2016! Finally, the more volatile housing starts declined to 1.427 million annualized, the lowest since August 2020. Here’s the graph showing all three: Those are all big declines, and definitely recessionary. But they’re not the biggest story. For one thing, the backlog of housing units authorized but not yet started declined only slightly to 293,000, only slightly below its March peak: This most likely is much affected by cancellations, which have soared in recent months. But the big story, in my opinion, has to do with the metric that measures the actual economic activity in the housing sector; namely, housing units under construction. This remained at 1.709 million, tied with last month and at its peak. In the below graph, I also show the number of residential construction workers from the recent jobs report: In other words, in terms of actual economic activity, housing isn’t yet contributing to a decline. Since units under construction and the number of construction workers typically move in tandem, note that employment has not declined yet either. There was some slight movement, in that single family units under construction declined to 777,000, an 11 month low, while multi-unit construction increased to a new high: This reflects buyers being priced out of the single family market. Finally, note that mortgage rates have come down significantly in the past eight weeks: If this persists, we may put in a bottom in housing permits in the next few months, which of course would be good news for 2024. But, to emphasize again, despite the big declines in the headline numbers, actual economic activity in housing construction remains at its peak.

November Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction
Excerpt: Single‐family authorizations in November were at a rate of 781,000; this is 7.1 percent below the revised October figure of 841,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 509,000 in November. Possibly Important: Note the sharp decline in multi-family permits in November. This has been averaging close to 650,000 SAAR over the last 8 months and declined to 509,000 in November from 620,000 in October. This is a possible signal that the expected decline in multi-family starts will happen soon (although permits aren’t a perfect leading indicator for starts). The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble). Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in November compared to October. Multi-family starts were up 23.3% year-over-year in November. Single-family starts (red) decreased in November and were down 32.1% year-over-year.Note that the recent weakness - so far - has been in single family starts (red).The second graph shows single and multi-family starts since 1968. Total housing starts in November were above expectations, however, starts in September and October were revised down, combined.The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2021 (blue) and 2022 (red). Total starts were down 16.4% in November compared to November 2021.  Total starts, year-to-date, are down 1.2% compared to the same period in 2021. Starts have been down year-over-year for seven consecutive months, and the comparison will be very difficult in December (starts were strong at the end of 2021). Housing starts will end the year down about 3% compared to 2021. The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA). Red is single family units. Currently there are 777 thousand single family units (red) under construction (SA). This is below the previous seven months, and 51 thousand below the recent peak in April and May. Single family units under construction have peaked since single family starts are now declining. The reason there are so many homes under construction is probably due to supply constraints.

Personal Income increased 0.4% in November; Spending increased 0.1% - The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $80.1 billion (0.4 percent) in November, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $68.6 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $19.8 billion (0.1 percent).The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in November and real PCE increased less than 0.1 percent; goods decreased 0.6 percent and services increased 0.3 percent.  The November PCE price index increased 5.5 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 6.1 percent YoY in October.  The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 4.7 percent YoY, down from 5.0 percent in October.The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through November 2022 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. Personal income was above expectations, and the increase in PCE was below expectations.Inflation was lower than expected. Using the two-month method to estimate Q4 real PCE growth, real PCE was increasing at a 4.0% annual rate in Q3 2022. (Using the mid-month method, real PCE was increasing at 3.0%).

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Tumble Amid Sharp Pullback In Transportation Orders  - Reflecting a sharp pullback in orders for transportation equipment, the Commerce Department released a report on Friday showing U.S. durable goods orders tumbled by much more than expected in the month of November. The report said durable goods orders plunged by 2.1 percent in November after climbing by a downwardly revised 0.7 percent in October. Economists had expected durable goods orders to decrease by 0.6 percent compared to the 1.1 percent jump that had been reported for the previous month. The much steeper than expected drop by durable goods orders came as orders for transportation equipment dove by 6.3 percent in November after jumping by 1.9 percent in October. Orders for non-defense aircraft and parts led the way lower, plummeting by 36.4 percent in November after soaring by 4.7 percent in October. Excluding the pullback in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders edged up by 0.2 percent in November after inching up by 0.1 percent in October. Ex-transportation orders were expected to be unchanged. The uptick in ex-transportation orders partly reflected increases in orders for computers and electronic products and machinery. The report also showed orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a key indicator of business spending, crept up by 0.2 percent in November after rising by 0.3 percent in October, Meanwhile, shipments in the same category, which is the source data for equipment investment in GDP, edged down by 0.1 percent in November after surging by 1.4 percent in October. "Business equipment investment was probably supported again this quarter from a further recovery in transport, as autos shortages eased," said Andrew Hunter, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics. He added, "But we expect it to weaken more markedly next year as the full impact of the Fed's aggressive tightening this year feeds through."

Tesla Implements Hiring Freeze, Will See "Another Wave Of Layoffs" Next Quarter We guess the "robust demand" story at Tesla is finally over... The EV company, which has seen its stock shellacked over the last month and its CEO pre-occupied with his latest tryst in Twitter, is reportedly implementing a hiring freeze and a new round of layoffs, according to a report by electrek. The move comes after the company had already asked some executives to "pause all hiring" and cut 10% of their staff back in June, the report notes. The latest round of layoffs has been attributed to Elon Musk's “very bad feeling” about the U.S. economy. Musk took to Twitter just yesterday to blame Tesla's stock price plunge (it's down about 20% over the last month) on the Federal Reserve inhibiting demand. As electrek correctly notes, the hiring pause and layoffs at the company should be even more alarming now, as Tesla was looking to forge forward with new factories in places like the U.S. and Germany. Over the last few months, production at Tesla's key Shanghai plant has also been under scrutiny, with the plant scheduled to take a several day break before the new year, ostensibly to allow demand to catch up to supply and potentially to make upgrades and modifications to its line. "Tteams will be expected to make layoffs during the first quarter of 2023," electrek wrote. "It’s not clear how extensive the hiring freeze will be as Tesla is still planning to expand in some manufacturing locations. No further details were made available at this time." The layoffs also come after price cuts and temporary discounts on some Tesla vehicles that have left some sell side analysts to pose the question of whether or not the company is seeing a demand problem. And the "diamond hands" over at electrek have certainly taken notice. They warned their pro-Tesla readership: "Until now, Tesla shareholders could still hold on to the thought that while the stock is doing poorly, Tesla’s financials and operations are still virtually unaffected. Now it looks like there might be some worrying trends that Tesla is seeing internally leading to those moves."

Minnesota Nurses Association pushes through contracts after blocking strike by 15,000 members - The Minnesota Nurses Association (MNA) announced last week that labor agreements for 15,000 nurses across the state had been ratified by the membership. MNA officials predictably hailed the deal as a “historic win” with “unprecedented language to address chronic understaffing.” Nurses were prepared to strike 16 hospitals in Minneapolis, St. Paul and Twin Ports, Minnesota, on December 11 when the MNA announced it reached an agreement with Essentia, Allina and other hospital giants. The deal includes wage increases of just 17–18 percent over the life of the three-year deal. This amounts to a further cut in real income for nurses given the persistently high rate of inflation, which remains over 7 percent nationally. The MNA claims that the deal will give “nurses a say in staffing.” In fact, the deal will ensure continued unsafe conditions, burnout and the scapegoating of health care workers for the inevitable accidents caused by understaffing and other forms of cost-cutting. The contract specifies that hospital units must first cross a certain threshold of dangerous conditions for nurses and patients alike before “management and the union” will even “re-evaluate staffing levels.” It does not, moreover, oppose further staff reductions but only says the union must give its blessing first. Nurses in Minnesota and throughout the country have already suffered firsthand from such labor-management schemes, which invariably sanction management’s cost-cutting measures, aimed at squeezing more work out of fewer workers. The real measure of who benefits from the contract was demonstrated by the celebratory statements of hospital executives. Essentia Health, Allina Health and other hospital chains all released statements declaring that they were “pleased” with the settlements.

Newly released bodycam footage shows Jacksonville, Florida police murder of Kevin Mahan -The Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office released bodycam footage this month of a fatal police shooting which took place in April. The footage plainly shows the officer open fire and kill a man who was standing far away from him and posed no immediate threat. Initial reports of the shooting indicated that the police had been called to Morse Avenue, on Jacksonville, Florida’s west side, early that morning in response to a 911 call “regarding a mentally ill individual.” The Florida Times Union reported at the time that “family members” had contacted police and told them that the man had cut power to their home and had “mental health issues.” Officers did not locate the suspect at that time but returned later that morning, after further 911 calls reported a man in the area vandalizing homes. When they located Kevin Mahan, a 43-year-old white man, he was walking through a wooded area holding a small hatchet. As the two officers on the bodycam video locate him, one shouts “put the ax down” several times, as Mahan can be seen calmly turning to face the officer, at a distance of at least twenty feet or more. Mahan can be heard to say “no” and then, “listen man” as the two officers hold him at gunpoint. As the officers continued shouting at him, he raised his hand, holding the hatchet as if to make a point, and again was heard to say “listen, man” at which point the lead officer shot him in the head and killed him. Mahan was not advancing towards the officers, and his demeanor could hardly be said to be menacing. The “hatchet” he was reported to be brandishing appeared to be less than a foot long, roughly the size of a tool used in landscaping. The encounter unfolded over less than a minute. The officer who killed Mahan was not charged or disciplined for the incident and is still on the job. His name has also not been released due to the fact that the Sheriff’s office invoked “Marsy’s Law,” a state constitutional amendment passed in 2018, intended to shield the victims of crimes from harassment, which is now routinely used by Florida law enforcement agencies to shield killer officers from public scrutiny.

How Extreme Has The Dumbing Down Of America Become? You Might Want To Brace Yourself For This One Everyone knows that the quality of education in our public schools is declining. We continue to fall behind the rest of the world, and this is particularly true in science and in math. Today, a large proportion of our young people are not even equipped to function on a very basic level in our society once they graduate from high school, and that has huge implications for the future of our country. When I was growing up, kids would start learning algebra before they even got to high school. But these days many of our college students can’t even handle algebra. In fact, the Kansas Board of Regents is actually considering dropping algebra as a requirement at the state’s six public universities because so many students are failing the basic algebra course… The Kansas Board of Regents is considering stripping specific university math requirements after it was found that a significant percentage of college freshmen fail algebra, NPR affiliate KCUR reported. The Regents, who oversee the system’s six public universities, are considering implementing the Math Pathways approach which matches students to a math course based on their major instead of mandating algebra for all incoming students. While many universities require that all freshmen pass algebra as a prerequisite for graduation, one in three Kansas students reportedly fail the course, which could delay a student’s graduation. Are they serious? Apparently they are. One academic official in Kansas insists that for a majority of the students in the system algebra is simply “not relevant for their fields”… “We’re sending the majority of students down the college algebra road, which is really not necessary,” said Daniel Archer, vice president of academic affairs for the Kansas Board of Regents. “It’s not practical. It’s not really needed. And it’s not relevant for their fields.” I have an idea. Instead of having our college students deal with hard stuff like quadratic equations, perhaps we can just design a course where they just watch videos of Count von Count from Sesame Street count things.

Unequal Education and the ‘Great Gatsby Curve’ -  In modern economies, people’s livelihoods are based in large part on skills acquired through education. Unequal education therefore drives both inequality in the labour market and low social mobility across generations. This column reviews the evidence on how family background shapes differences in educational outcomes, mechanisms, and the potential role of policy. The implications of educational inequality are pertinent given the COVID-19 pandemic, in which widespread school closures have created new challenges to learning that put children from low-income families at a particular disadvantage.

Kansas City teacher fired after repeated use of racial slur - -- A Kansas City charter school with a largely minority student population has fired a white teacher who was recorded repeatedly using a racial slur in his classes, school administrators said. University Academy officials said in a letter to families that Johnny Wolfe, a history and African American studies teacher in the upper school, had been fired after an investigation prompted by concerns raised last month by students and alumni, The Kansas City Star reported Monday. University Academy is a public charter school with about 1,100 students, 96% of whom are students of color, and most are Black. Several videos and recordings of students confronting Wolfe about using the racial slur multiple times were posted on KC Defender, a Black community media platform. In the recordings, he defends his use of the slur, saying that he was speaking in an “educational context.” “You can like it, not like it, be upset about it all you like,” he said. “But ultimately this is a ridiculous conversation.” Students, parents and community members then held a town hall to address racism at the school and a Change.org petition was started to demand that Wolfe be fired. After an investigation, University Academy officials fired Wolfe and committed to taking several steps to improve diversity and racial awareness, according to the letter. The steps include mandatory harassment and discrimination training for staff, plus culturally responsive leadership training for administrators. University Academy officials say they will also work to increase the racial diversity of the school's staff, which is currently 59% white, 39% Black, 1% Asian and 1% Hispanic.

Former Long Island teacher Laura Parker Russo pleads guilty to lesser charges for injecting teen with COVID vaccine - CBS New York A plea deal was made Friday in a COVID-19 vaccine case on Long Island that drew national attention. Biology teacher Laura Parker Russo, who injected a 17-year-old friend of her son with a purported Johnson & Johnson COVID vaccine last New Year's Eve, left court without comment after moving to resolve her felony case by pleading guilty to lesser charges. "I think they should have kept it as a misdemeanor. I don't think what she did was a walk in the park," said Lisa Doyle, the teenager's mother. Doyle reiterated what she first told CBS2 last May -- that there should be greater repercussions for the highly educated Sea Cliff mother, who was a teacher at Herricks High School. "I'm glad that the judge realized that he needed to be tougher on her than the DA was," Doyle said. The judge threw out the initial agreement and tacked on 100 hours of community service and therapy twice a week for a year when Russo pled guilty to attempted unauthorized practice of medicine and disorderly conduct in order to receive a conditional discharge and no prison time. "As long as she's successful in what the judge laid out that she has to do, she will have a non-criminal disposition. She will be getting a violation at the end," Russo's defense attorney, Gerard McCloskey, said. McCloskey added Russo was fired from her job. Doyle says her son suffered mental anguish, embarrassment and ended up switching schools in the last semester of his senior year. "Because of all of this, he lost a lot of his friends. He just want to be done with it and wants to jsut move on," Doyle said. Russo, who has no criminal history and is active in her community, was made to sign a stay away order of protection from the teen. She must serve one year probation. If she successfully performs the community service and therapy within that time, the misdemeanor will be vacated.

How to Help Educators With Long COVID: Do's and Don'ts -Long COVID is here to stay.  The long-term illness has claimed the lives of more than 3,500 Americans, including one school principal. It’s placed millions more in fragile medical situations they’ve never before experienced. Many more will likely join them this winter, as COVID cases appear poised to surge yet again. Education Week has spent much of the year in dialogue with nine educators struggling with long COVID. Many have shared stories of the frustration and anxiety they feel about dealing with a potentially chronic illness that much of the public doesn’t understand or acknowledge. Here’s a guide to treating colleagues, family members, and friends who have long COVID with respect and compassion.

  • Don’t: Assume based on appearances. Many people with long COVID look fine on the outside. That doesn’t mean they aren’t suffering. Brain fog can make it difficult to perform basic tasks like writing or washing dishes. The fatigue can be so extreme that getting out of bed is a Herculean task. And feelings of anxiety, depression, and loneliness that often accompany long COVID cases can manifest in all kinds of unseen ways.
  • Don’t: Question whether someone is just being lazy. Some people with long COVID are trying to push through the pain and keep their jobs. But some find that they don’t have as much stamina as they used to or they need to take more frequent breaks. To an outside observer, that might seem like laziness. But to someone with long COVID, a little understanding goes a long way—especially because many long COVID patients even struggle to convince their own doctors of how serious their illness is.
  • Don’t: Conflate one person’s situation with another’s. Everyone Education Week has interviewed who has long COVID has described vastly different experiences. Some people recover after a few months, while others have spent years dealing with persistent symptoms. Some cases are more severe than others. And almost everyone has a different combination of symptoms, ranging from heart defects and diminished lung capacity to gastrointestinal discomfort, heightened sensitivity to noise, and loss of taste and smell. All these complexities make long COVID difficult to research, diagnose, and treat. But the variation shouldn’t prevent individuals and districts from extending compassion.

Only Half of Infectious Disease Training Programs Filled All Fellowship Positions  - Faculty members in infectious disease fellowship programs across the country are lamenting the lower numbers of new doctors that matched into training positions this year, continuing a trend of waning interest in the subspecialty.Emory University School of Medicine in Atlanta, which had five open positions, filled all but one slot in the match, according to Wendy Armstrong, MD, associate director of the division of infectious diseases there. “It's very unusual for us not to fill," she told MedPage Today, noting that the program filled the remaining open position outside of the match process. "Far too many programs, including long-established programs, were in a similar boat."  Daniel Bourque, MD, program director of the infectious diseases fellowship at Boston University, said that his program had multiple positions go unfilled. None of the program's three open fellowship positions were filled in the match this year."This was a huge surprise," he said. "I think seeing the number of spots that went unfilled across the country, in many other very strong programs ... it was shocking." Just 56% of infectious disease fellowship programs filled all of their open positions this year, according to data from the National Resident Matching Program (NRMP), with 74% of available positions filled during the match process. Fill rates sunk even lower this year compared with last year's match, in which 70% of programs and 82% of positions were filled.

USC graduates sue over flawed US News rankings data -- Several University of Southern California graduates are suing their former university, alleging the USC education school promoted “fraudulent rankings” of its online graduate program to attract students. The three former students filed the lawsuit this week in Los Angeles County Court, alleging USC’s Rossier School of Education and its business partner, 2U, promoted an inaccurate ranking of the school after giving incomplete data to U.S. News & World Report rankings. The complaint says USC’s Rossier was able to bump their place in the rankings of education schools from No. 38 to No. 10 over the years by giving “cherry-picked” data about student selectivity, including submitting data about in-person courses and then promoting its ranking for those looking at online courses. The graduates, whose class-action lawsuit was filed Tuesday by the National Student Legal Defense Network and Tycko & Zavareei LLP, are asking the court to reimburse tuition and other costs for themselves and other current and former students enrolled with the education school. 2U, which runs the promotion for the school’s online education programs and gets a cut of tuition revenue, says they “categorically deny the baseless and frivolous allegations.” “We will defend ourselves vigorously against these unfounded claims,” the company said. USC also pushed back on the lawsuit and defended its handling of the issue. “We disagree with the claims asserted in the lawsuit, which are mostly based on facts that the university already shared with the community. We stand by our handling of this matter and look forward to defending against these claims in court,” the university said in a statement shared with The Hill.

California university apologizes for prisoner experiments - ABC News - -- A prominent California medical school has apologized for conducting dozens of unethical medical experiments on at least 2,600 incarcerated men in the 1960s and 1970s, including putting pesticides and herbicides on the men's skin and injecting it into their veins. Two dermatologists at the University of California, San Francisco — one of whom remains at the university — conducted the experiments on men at the California Medical Facility, a prison hospital in Vacaville that's about 50 miles (80.47 kilometers) northeast of San Francisco. The practice was halted in 1977. The university's Program for Historical Reconciliation issued a report about the experiments earlier this month, writing that the doctors engaged in “questionable informed consent practices” and performed procedures on men who did not have any of the diseases or conditions that the research aimed to treat. The San Francisco Chronicle first reported the program's findings Wednesday. “UCSF apologizes for its explicit role in the harm caused to the subjects, their families and our community by facilitating this research, and acknowledges the institution’s implicit role in perpetuating unethical treatment of vulnerable and underserved populations — regardless of the legal or perceptual standards of the time,” Executive Vice Chancellor and Provost Dan Lowenstein said in a statement. The report said further analysis is needed to determine the extent of harms caused to the prisoners as a result of the experiments and what the university should do in response.

Purdue Northwest faculty senate, AAUP, demand resignation of chancellor after racist comments -  Purdue University Northwest’s faculty senate are calling for the university chancellor to resign after his mocking impersonation of Asian languages went viral. On Friday, both the executive committee of the faculty senate and the Purdue Northwest chapter of the American Association of University Professors released statements demanding the resignation of Chancellor Thomas Keon, citing “inexcusable behavior” that caused “national and international outrage.” During Purdue Northwest’s December commencement, speaker Jim Dedelow talked about using a made-up language to calm down crying children. Following him at the podium, Keon made unintelligible sounds, which he then described as “my Asian version” of Dedelow’s made-up language. That moment has led Keon to issue an apology, saying that he made a mistake that did not represent “my personal or our institutional values.” Shortly after his apology was issued, the Purdue University Board of Trustees issued a statement saying they were aware of Keon’s comments and had accepted his apology. But faculty say the chancellor’s apology isn’t enough. Thomas Roach is the chair of the faculty senate of Purdue University Northwest. “The fact they [the Board of Trustees] accepted the apology is almost as bad as what he said in the first place,” he said. “The Asian community has been saying for years that they are being discriminated against, and they’ve also been saying everybody tolerates descrimination against Asian Americans. Here we have this discriminatory remark and the Board of Trustees saying ‘no big deal.’” According to Roach, he sent a letter to the Purdue Board of Trustees earlier in the week notifying them that they would have the support of the faculty senate should they choose to remove Keon from his position. That letter also points out there were calls for Keon’s resignation as early as last year, though Roach said those calls weren’t related to any specific event. He said a survey of faculty in 2021 showed over 50% had negative feelings about Keon’s leadership.

Draper’s Millions: The Philanthropic Wellspring of Modern Race Science -- In 1961, a new journal of ethnology and anthropology appeared on academic bookshelves. Nearly every page betrayed an obsession with racial differences.  “The few worthwhile contributions cannot justify the publication of the rest of the journal,” wrote the English anthropologist G. Ainsworth Harrison, spotting error after error. “None of the authors rigorously and objectively appraises the limitations of the tests he uses.” One article made the bizarre claim that Egypt — a country described as being made up of racial “hybrids” — was more “disease-ridden” as a result. “What is particularly insidious in a supposedly scientific journal is the use of words with overtones of moral judgment,” Harrison concluded. What he didn’t know was that this was entirely by design. The journal had been founded by a tight web of far-right thinkers intent on blocking racial integration in the United States, ending immigration from everywhere but Western Europe, and promoting eugenic policies that would encourage only those they believed were the fittest to survive and reproduce. They were relying on the naivete of fellow researchers, using academia as cover so they could present their agenda to politicians and policymakers as supposed scientific fact.The Mankind Quarterly, as this journal was known, was a work of political propaganda. Its cover featured a globe divided into three, each with a head sticking out of it. The top two heads were labelled “Homo Caucasicus” and “Homo Mongolicus,” and the one at the bottom in black was labelled “Homo Africanus.” The editors never pretended they weren’t publishing race science. Harrison’s declared hope was that The Mankind Quarterly would be shut down before it did any more damage. Had the scientific process operated perfectly, perhaps it would have been. After all, this is how good science is supposed to work. Researchers read each other’s papers to make sure that dodgy theories and biased studies don’t slip through.  But most crucially, The Mankind Quarterly was funded and distributed independently. Its editors didn’t have to care about the judgment of other scholars because they were being bankrolled by a single benefactor from outside the scientific establishment. This philanthropist gave thousands in grants and gifts to Garrett alone, as well as bequeathing him $50,000 in his will. The influence of his largesse was so profound that today, more than 60 years after the first issue was released to widespread condemnation, The Mankind Quarterly is still in publication.

9 million received misleading emails about their student debt forgiveness applications as Biden’s cancellation program heads to Supreme Court - Nine million student loan borrowers were sent an email from the Department of Education last week correcting a confusing mix-up of information in a previous email. The first emails, sent on November 22–23, included a confusing error in the subject line stating that the application for debt forgiveness had been approved, while the body of the email only said that the application had been received and that the department was awaiting the resolution of litigation against the program for it to be processed. So far, 26 million people have applied for debt relief with 16 million approved before the plan met legal challenges preventing the Department of Education from processing new applications. Millions of update emails were sent out in late November. Some informed borrowers that their applications were approved and awaiting resolution in court: “We received your application or have the income information to process you for loan relief. You do not need to take any further action at this time. We will keep your application information and will continue our review of your eligibility if and when we prevail in court.” The Department of Education said that the recent correction email was to clarify any confusion and ensure that applicants were aware that their applications had not actually been approved. According to the Department of Education, the subject line error was caused by a federal contractor, Accenture Federal Services, which sent out the emails with the misleading subject lines. Regardless of who is responsible, the unprofessional and confusing mistake demonstrates a lack of regard for borrowers and their struggles to survive under crushing debt. Biden’s plan has been consistently shown to be little more than a political stunt designed to garner support for the Democratic Party in the midterm elections with little concern for its implementation. Biden had campaigned for president on the promise of student debt cancellation, initially pledging to cancel all federally held student debt for those making less than $125,000 and who attended a public university or college. While campaigning, he stated, “I propose to forgive all undergraduate tuition-related federal student debt from two- and four-year public colleges and universities for debt-holders earning up to $125,000, with appropriate phase-outs to avoid a cliff.” But after being elected, Biden altered his policy to be just $10,000 for those who make less than $125,000 and up to $20,000 for students who received Pell grants. This $400 billion cancellation would only put a dent in the $1.7 trillion of total student debt.

COVID, drug overdoses drive life expectancy drop -- The average U.S. life expectancy shortened by seven months in 2021, according to new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), driven mainly by COVID-19 and drug overdoses from synthetic opioids.

  • According to a pair of CDC reports, life expectancy dropped for the second consecutive year, from 77 years to 76.4 years. This follows a major drop of 1.8 years in 2020, putting life expectancy from birth at about the same level it was in 1996.
  • Nine of the 10 leading causes of death in 2020 were the same in 2021. Heart disease was the main cause of death, followed by cancer and COVID-19, which took nearly 417,000 lives last year, an increase of 18.8 percent from 2020, despite the release of new vaccines.

 Every age group in the nation — from 1-year-olds to people age 85 and older — saw a decrease in life expectancy. Life expectancy for women is 79.9 years, about six years longer than men, but they both experienced the same decline.Almost all racial groups also saw an increase in death rates, except for non-Hispanic Asian males and non-Hispanic Black males, which saw a slight decrease. About 3.46 million people died in the U.S. last year, according to CDC, an increase of 80,502 more deaths than in 2020. Deaths by suicide and from liver disease caused by alcohol also increased, contributing to the shorter American lifespan. Flu and pneumonia rates decreased, as parts of the U.S. population took precautions against the coronavirus and wore masks.

GAO: Nursing home COVID outbreaks tied to community spread -A new report from the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) shows that the average COVID-19 nursing home outbreak in 2020 to 2022 lasted 4 weeks and was strongly tied to community spread, with the longest outbreaks in government-owned facilities with more than 100 beds and staff shortages. The GAO analyzed data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid (CMS) on the nation's 15,281 Medicare- and Medicaid-certified nursing homes from June 2020 to December 2021. The agency also interviewed researchers, national nursing home associations, state officials, and leaders at six nursing homes in California, Florida, Maryland, and Michigan. The nursing homes each experienced 1 to 16 outbreaks, with an average of 7.6 and a total of 102,992. The surges lasted, on average, 4 weeks, ranging from 1 week (42% of total outbreaks) to 53 weeks (less than 1%). Nearly all nursing homes (91%) had at least one surge of 5 or more weeks. The strongest factor in the length of an outbreak was community spread, with those in nursing homes in areas with low COVID-19 transmission seeing surges that were 7 days shorter than those in areas with high transmission. Most outbreaks (75%) began with a report of a staff infection. "These results could indicate that, during times of higher community spread, staff have a greater likelihood of being exposed to the virus in the community and bringing it into the nursing home," the report said. Officials at five nursing homes described staff shortages during case surges, with one official noting that at one time, staffing was down 25%. Three officials discussed difficulties in maintaining good morale amid traumatic circumstances that took the joy out of caregiving. "Nursing home residents are at a high risk of infection and death due to COVID-19, as older adults and those with underlying health conditions are at a higher risk of severe disease," the GAO said. "In addition, the congregate nature of nursing homes increases the risk of transmission."

December Update: COVID Death Rates by Partisan Lean & Vaccination Rate -- Charles Gaba does a rewrite of an earlier commentary at his site.  “33 Months of COVID In One Image”. Recently, this writeup’s stats was used by Prof. Paul Krugman in his recent NYT article, “Will 2024 Be a Vaccine Election?” In it, Prof. Krug explains the political partisanship impact on becoming vaccinated or not and the resulting impact as detailed by Charles Gaba. “Have the vaccines worked? And how. There are multiple ways to evaluate their lifesaving effect, but I’m especially taken with a simple approach promoted by the analyst Charles Gaba, who looks at the correlation across U.S. counties between vaccination rates and Covid death rates.” Prof. Krugman findings using Charles’ data: “why are some U.S. counties so much less vaccinated than others? The answer, as Gaba shows, is partisanship. There’s a startlingly close relationship between the share of a county’s voters who supported Trump in 2020 and the percentage of that county’s residents who haven’t received their shots and the percentage who have died from covid.” So Charles updates his data in his latest from December 15 commentary. I already knew going into this update that the divides in Red/Blue COVID death rates and likely as well as in Vaccination Rate COVID death rates have shrunk over the past few months, for several reasons: First, the overall COVID death rate has dropped dramatically since the summer (which is obviously a good thing); it’s been averaging between 300 – 400 per day since mid-October.The other reason is not good news: Hardly anyone seems to be masking up anymore regardless of partisan lean, and the vaccination rate of the bivalent booster shot has been anemic for the most part…again, pretty much regardless of other factors. As of this writing, while 69% of the total U.S. population has completed their primary COVID-19 vaccination series (including 94% of those 65+), a mere 14.1% of the total population has also gotten their updated bivalent booster shot as well…and even among seniors it’s only at 35.7% nationally.The bivalent booster has only been approved for all adults since the end of August, but that’s still pretty bad 3 1/2 months later: By comparison, a full 50% of the U.S. population had gotten their 2nd vaccination dose by August 16, 2021 (the exact same 3 1/2 months after the primary series was approved for all U.S. adults).However, it’s one thing to know that the gap has shrunk; it’s something else to actually crunch the numbers and confirm that, so I’ve gone ahead and done so once again.I’ve added two more graphs this time, however: Since we’re so far removed from May 2021, and since the primary vaccination series effectiveness wears off after some time, I’ve also added both the partisan lean and vaccination rate breakout since August 31, 2022…the day that the FDA authorized the bivalent booster for all U.S. adults.

Lack of rural US healthcare access led to COVID vaccine disparities, data show-- A study in The Lancet Regional Health finds that wide disparities in healthcare capacity in the United States, particularly in rural areas, hampered COVID-19 vaccination efforts during the pandemic. The cross-sectional study was conducted by comparing the healthcare system capacity of 2,417 US counties and their COVID-19 vaccination rates. Counties with more limited healthcare capacity had COVID-19 vaccination rates less than or equal to 50%, with 35% higher constraints in low-vaccinated areas compared to high-vaccinated areas. The average number of medical doctors per 1,000 in low-vaccinated counties was 0.19 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.18 to 0.20) compared to 0.81 (0.76 to 0.85) in high-vaccinated ones. While most research has focused on vaccine hesitancy as being a lead cause of regional vaccine disparities in the United States, this study showed lack of healthcare coverage also contributed to gaps between urban and rural Americans. Disruption to health services was felt most acutely in rural areas, and people in underserved communities were as much as 34% less likely to be vaccinated against COVID-19. Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska had the lowest vaccination rates. "Many counties, especially those in rural areas, experienced significant disruptions in health care, including the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine itself," said study co-author Neil MacKinnon, PhD, provost for Augusta University in Georgia, in a press release.

Covid news: Omicron boosters keep seniors out of hospital, CDC says -- The latest omicron boosters are 84% effective at keeping seniors 65 and older from being hospitalized with Covid-19 compared with the unvaccinated, according to a study published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday.And seniors who received the omicron booster had 73% more protection against hospitalization than those who only received two or more doses of the original vaccines that were not updated to target omicron, according to the CDC.The study was conducted from September through November when omicron BA.5 and the even more immune evasive BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 variants were dominant. About 800 seniors with a median age of 76 were included in the analysis.In a larger study that looked at more than 15,000 adults ages 18 and older, the omicron booster was 57% effective at preventing hospitalization. Adults who received the booster had 38% additional protection compared with people who only received the original shots.Neither study examined how well people were protected against hospitalization if they were vaccinated and had natural immunity from a previous Covid infection. A previous study from the CDC found that the boosters were less than 50% effective at preventing mild illness across most age groups. But prominent scientists and public health experts said the shots’ effectiveness against hospitalization would almost certainly be higher.

Effectiveness of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Bivalent Vaccine - ABSTRACT:  The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether a bivalent COVID-19 vaccine protects against COVID-19.   Employees of Cleveland Clinic in employment on the day the bivalent COVID-19 vaccine first became available to employees, were included. The cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was examined over the following weeks. Protection provided by vaccination (analyzed as a time-dependent covariate) was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression. The analysis was adjusted for the pandemic phase when the last prior COVID-19 episode occurred, and the number of prior vaccine doses received.   Among 51011 employees, 20689 (41%) had had a previous documented episode of COVID-19, and 42064 (83%) had received at least two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. COVID-19 occurred in 2452 (5%) during the study. Risk of COVID-19 increased with time since the most recent prior COVID-19 episode and with the number of vaccine doses previously received. In multivariable analysis, the bivalent vaccinated state was independently associated with lower risk of COVID-19 (HR, .70; 95% C.I., .61-.80), leading to an estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 30% (95% CI, 20-39%). Compared to last exposure to SARS-CoV-2 within 90 days, last exposure 6-9 months previously was associated with twice the risk of COVID-19, and last exposure 9-12 months previously with 3.5 times the risk. Conclusions:The bivalent COVID-19 vaccine given to working-aged adults afforded modest protection overall against COVID-19, while the virus strains dominant in the community were those represented in the vaccine.

COVID vaccine efficacy against infection in kids dropped amid Omicron | CIDRAP - The estimated effectiveness of two COVID-19 vaccine doses was 61% among children and 67% among adolescents in Argentina during Delta variant predominance and 16% and 26%, respectively, during the Omicron period, finds a test-negative, case-control study published in BMJ. Overall estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against death during both periods was 89% among the entire 3- to 17-year-old group. When considering only the Omicron wave, VE against death was 67% in children and 98% in adolescents. The researchers mined data from two national registries on 139,321 infected children (ages 3 to 11 years) and adolescents (ages 12 to 17) and matched, uninfected controls, all of whom underwent polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or rapid antigen testing from September 2021 to April 2022. Slightly over half of participants were considered fully vaccinated, having received either two doses of the mRNA Moderna or Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines (adolescents) or the inactivated Sinopharm vaccine (children). The median interval from the second dose to testing was 66 days among adolescents and 54 days for children. Estimated VE against COVID-19 infection was 61.2% in children and 66.8% in adolescents during the period dominated by the Delta variant and 15.9% and 26.0% during Omicron. VE fell over time, especially amid Omicron, from 37.6% at 15 to 30 days after vaccination to 2.0% after 60 or more days in children and from 55.8% to 12.4% in adolescents. Protection against infection was lower and dropped more precipitously among the Sinopharm-vaccinated children (from 37.6% to 2%) than among adolescents vaccinated with the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines (from 55.8% to 12.4%). All combinations of mRNA vaccines yielded comparable results in adolescents. VE amid Delta was 70.2% among those who received two Moderna doses and 64.1% among those given two Pfizer doses (homologous dosing). The sequence of the Moderna followed by the Pfizer vaccine yielded a VE of 66.3% (heterologous dosing), while for Pfizer followed by Moderna, VE was 88.9%. During the Delta period, two doses of Moderna or Pfizer showed a VE of 17.9% and 28.1%, respectively. Among adolescents who received the Pfizer before the Moderna vaccine, VE was 40.6%, while it was 31.5% among those who received the Moderna vaccine first. VE amid Delta was 70.2% among those who received two Moderna doses and 64.1% among those given two Pfizer doses. The sequence of the Moderna followed by the Pfizer vaccine yielded a VE of 66.3%, while for Pfizer followed by Moderna, VE was 88.9%. A total of 51 COVID-19 deaths occurred among infected participants, 7 of them during the Delta period. Thirty of the 51 were unvaccinated (16 children, 14 adolescents), while 8 were partially vaccinated (3 and 5), and nine were fully vaccinated (6 and 3), and four had an "other" vaccination status (2 and 2). VE against COVID-19 Omicron death was 66.9% in children and 97.6% in adolescents.

Study challenges notion that Omicron COVID is always mild - Vaccinated or previously infected COVID-19 hospital patients had lower rates of severe illness and death than their unvaccinated, COVID-naive peers during both Omicron and Delta variant predominance. And while the unvaccinated had fewer poor outcomes during Omicron than in Delta, their risk was similar to that seen with previous SARS-CoV-2 strains, according to a study published today in Clinical Infectious Diseases. Johns Hopkins University researchers studied the electronic medical records of COVID-19 patients at five hospitals in Maryland and Washington, DC, who had low oxygen levels, an abnormally rapid breathing rate or heart rate, or fever who had available viral whole-genome sequencing information from Sep 1, 2020, to May 7, 2022. Of all patients, 3,369 were unvaccinated, and 1,230 were vaccinated or had previously tested positive for COVID-19. Vaccinated patients were older and had more underlying illnesses than the unvaccinated. Vaccination was considered the receipt of two doses of the Moderna or Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 mRNA vaccine or one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. A total of 29% of unvaccinated patients and 22% of vaccinated or previously infected patients became severely ill (required advanced respiratory support) or died within 28 days. The relative risk (RR) of severe disease or death for unvaccinated patients during Delta, compared with previous strains, was 1.30. The RR of poor outcomes among unvaccinated Omicron (vs Delta) patients was 0.72, while it was 0.94 versus ancestral lineages. Vaccinated or previously infected patients were at less than half the risk of severe illness or death amid both Omicron and Delta than their unvaccinated counterparts (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.40), but there was no significantly different outcome by variant. "The finding that unvaccinated individuals hospitalized with Omicron infections have similar risk of severe disease compared to cases prior to emergence of variants of concern undercuts public perception that Omicron is a mild disease," the study authors wrote. "Comparison of disease severity between Omicron and Delta alone overlooks the increased severity of Delta variant compared to prior lineages which were responsible for millions of deaths."

Drugs that fight inflammation, clots tied to better 6-month COVID-19 survival | CIDRAP - Critically ill COVID-19 patients who received interleukin-6 (IL-6) receptor agonists and antiplatelet drugs had a higher than 99.9% and 95.0% probability of improved 6-month survival, respectively, according to the latest data from the REMAP-CAP randomized clinical trial.REMAP-CAP (Randomized Embedded Multifactorial Adaptive Platform for Community Acquired Pneumonia) is an ongoing international platform trial assessing treatments for patients with severe pneumonia due to COVID-19 or other respiratory pathogens. The most recent results, from a secondary analysis of longer-term outcomes, were published late last week in JAMA. The investigators randomly assigned 4,869 adult COVID-19 patients admitted to an intensive care unit to receive one or combinations of six therapies from Mar 9, 2020, to Jun 22, 2021, at 197 sites in 14 countries. Of the 4,869 patients, 2,274 received the IL-6 receptor agonists (anti-inflammatory monoclonal antibodies) tocilizumab and sarilumab, 2,011 were given convalescent plasma from COVID-19 survivors, 1,557 received antiplatelet drugs such as aspirin or clopidogrel, 1,033 were given the anticoagulant heparin, 726 received antivirals, and 401 were given corticosteroids. Antiplatelet and anticoagulant drugs are used to prevent blood clots. Six-month survival status was available for 4,107 (95.1%) of 4,318 patients at sites conducting 6-month follow-up. Average patient age was 59.3 years, and 32.1% were women. Of the 4,107 patients with known 6-month status, 36.9% died. Ninety-one of 1,516 deaths (6.0%) by 6 months occurred after hospital release. IL-6 receptor agonists showed a 99.9% probability of boosting 6-month survival (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.74) compared with controls, and antiplatelet drugs had a 95.0% likelihood of doing so (aHR, 0.85). The probability of failure to improve survival, however, was high for anticoagulants (99.9%; HR, 1.13), convalescent plasma (99.2%; HR, 0.99), and the antiviral combination lopinavir-ritonavir (96.6%; HR, 1.06). The likelihood of harm was high for the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine (96.9%; HR, 1.51) and for the combination of lopinavir-ritonavir and hydroxychloroquine (96.8%; HR, 1.61). The corticosteroid arm was stopped early when it was found to have only a 57.1% to 61.6% probability of improving 6-month survival.

COVID-19 cases continue sharp uptick in Florida -Florida had more than 22,500 reported new cases of COVID-19 last week, continuing a sharp increase. The Florida Department of Health on Friday released data that showed the state had 22,572 reported cases from Dec. 9 through Thursday. That came after 19,931 cases during the week that started Dec. 2 and 18,793 cases during the week that started Nov. 25. Those were significantly higher totals than any other week since at least late September, according to the data. The highest total in the seven preceding weeks, for example, had been 12,366 cases during the week that started Oct. 28. The new data also showed that, as of Thursday, a reported 83,606 Florida residents had died of COVID-19 since the pandemic started in 2020. That was up from a reported 83,201 deaths two weeks earlier. Because of lags in reporting, it is unclear when the additional deaths occurred.

Omicron subvariant XBB jumps to 18% of U.S. COVID cases, CDC says - (Reuters) - The highly-contagious Omicron subvariant XBB has surged to more than 50% of COVID-19 cases in the northeastern United States and risks spreading fast as millions of Americans begin holiday travel on Friday. In the week ended Dec. 24, XBB was estimated to account for 18.3% of the COVID-19 cases in the United States, up from 11.2% in the previous week, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday (CDC). The subvariant is currently dominant in the Northeast, but accounts for fewer than 10% of infections in many other parts of the country, the CDC said. Andrew Pekosz, a virologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, said holiday travel in the United States could speed up the XBB subvariant's spread across the country. The American Automobile Association (AAA) had estimated that 112.7 million people planned to travel 50 miles (80 km) or more from home between Friday and Jan. 2, up 3.6 million travelers over last year and closing in on pre-pandemic numbers. But that number was likely to be diminished by the treacherous weather complicating air and road travel going into the weekend. "Anytime a new variant moves to a different geographic area, it does run the risk of sort of spawning a mini-outbreak in that area," Pekosz said. Still, Pekosz said he does not see the XBB subvariant driving the kind of massive surges seen last winter from the original Omicron variant.

Reason to worry? Covid variant XBB accounts for more than 18% of US cases  - Hindustan Times - The Omicron subvariant XBB accounts for 18.3% of the COVID-19 cases in the United States for the week ended December 24, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said on Friday. This marks an increase of 11.2% in the previous week as the XBB variant continues to drive up cases in Singapore.   Earlier this week, the total number of confirmed Covid cases in the United States surpassed 100 million, according to data from Johns Hopkins University on Tuesday. The data showed that the US Covid case count rose to 100,002,248 since the pandemic broke out almost three years ago, with a total of 1,088,218 deaths. On the state level, California topped the caseload list, with more than 11.6 million cases, followed by Texas and Florida with confirmed cases of about 8.1 million and more than 7.3 million, respectively, the data showed. Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 accounted for about 70 percent of new cases in the week ending December 17 as BQ.1 was estimated to make up 30.7 percent of circulating variants, while BQ.1.1 was estimated to make up about 38.4 percent, CDC said. The surge comes as in the United States flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are also spreading. The trio is dubbed by some doctors as a “tripledemic” as there have been at least 15 million illnesses, 150,000 hospitalizations, and 9,300 deaths from flu so far this season, according to the CDC. Levels of respiratory syncytial virus also remain at record or near-record high, the CDC said. Earlier, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center estimated that over three-quarters of ICU beds in the US will be occupied through Christmas – a similar level to it was two years ago, during the height of the Covid.

US hits more than 100M COVID-19 cases. Experts say this is likely an undercount - The United States has officially recorded more than 100 million COVID-19 cases. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated late Thursday, the U.S. hit the milestone as of Dec. 21.  This makes America the first nation to report total cases in the nine-figure range, data from Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center shows. Dr. John Brownstein, an epidemiologist and chief innovation officer at Boston Children's Hospital and an ABC News contributor, said that while the 100 million mark is momentous, it's also a severe undercount."Obviously it's a milestone that signifies the sheer amount of transmission that has occurred around this virus and the population burden that we have faced," he said. "At the same time, we recognize that reported cases are absolutely a massive undercount -- at the beginning of the pandemic where testing was nonexistent to the shift to home testing where a significant proportion of cases has gone unreported." "I think we know that a large majority of the population has already been infected with COVID," Brownstein said. "And so, this number only represents a fraction of all the cases. [The milestone] was very likely hit many months ago."In fact, between February 2020 and September 2021, the CDC estimates that only one in four COVID-19 infections were reported and there were likely about 146 million infections that occurred during this time. Brownstein said he believes there are opportunities to collect home testing results as surveillance data to report the true burden of cases more accurately. For example, the National Institutes of Health launched a website in late November by which people can anonymously report the results of their at-home COVID-19 tests, regardless of which brand they use.

Ohio nears 20,000 new COVID-19 cases as holidays approach – The Ohio Department of Health on Thursday reported 17,891 new COVID-19 cases, further increasing the rate of infections on the rise through December.The heightened case rate carrying through the middle of December is still a smaller case rate than the last two years' holiday seasons. ODH's latest coronavirus report was a bump of more than 1,000 compared to the past three, more consistent weeks. Ohio saw 16,719 new cases in the week prior, along with 16,061 and 16,091 cases in the two weeks before that.ODH began reporting COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths and vaccinations weekly instead of daily in mid-March after new infections slowed to a low level after the omicron wave. Over the past seven days, the state averaged around 2,555 new coronavirus cases per day. Ohio also saw a slight increase in hospitalizations, compared to two weeks prior staying essentially flat. The 666 hospitalizations reported by ODH in the past seven days -- about 95 per day -- were up from 636 last week and 605 the week prior. COVID-19 deaths decreased by just 10 for Ohio, as ODH said 93 died from the virus compared to 103 deaths the week prior and 86 before that.

Cuyahoga County, most northern Ohio yellow for moderate COVID-19 spread for fourth week: CDC map - cleveland.com — Cuyahoga County and most northern Ohio counties remained yellow, for moderate COVID-19 spread, for the fourth week in a row on the latest U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention map.  Ashtabula, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina, Portage and Summit counties were classified as yellow.Nearby Erie, Trumbull and Mahoning counties were designated red, for high COVID-19 spread.Across the state, the number of counties classified as red increased, and those classified as green, for low COVID-19 spread, decreased.  People in red counties with high transmission are advised by the CDC to wear masks indoors. Counties are considered to have high transmission levels when community coronavirus circulation could overwhelm local hospitals.  People who live in yellow-designated counties, and are at risk for severe COVID-19, should ask their healthcare provider whether they should wear masks or take other precautions, according to the CDC.  The CDC map was updated late Thursday.  Across Ohio, 16 counties were classified red, for high COVID-19 spread. In addition, 51 Ohio counties were designated yellow, and 21 were green.   Counties are classified as low (green), medium (yellow) or high (red) under the CDC’s system for estimating the risk of COVID-19 infection.

As COVID stages another winter comeback, many Californians don’t appear to care - The Bay Area was a model of cooperation during the early years of the COVID pandemic, as residents sheltered in place, lined up for vaccines and donned masks in public. Many locals looked on with consternation as health precautions became politicized in other parts of the country. Yet, even in this conscientious region, vigilance hasn’t lasted. As another winter COVID surge grips the region, large numbers of people are forgoing masks and skipping the latest booster — a vital tool in preventing serious illness as immunity from previous shots or infection wanes. Since the emergence of vaccines and better COVID treatments — and the lifting of blunt governmental measures such as mask mandates — the public approach to the coronavirus has become more laissez-faire. Some call this approach the “figure it out yourself” era of the pandemic. But individual choices still exact a heavy toll on vulnerable populations, such as older and immunocompromised people, some of whom are retreating again from the public square. Compounding widespread apathy toward the latest surge is considerable confusion over how to behave at this stage in the crisis. Experts say, in particular, that the rollout of the new bivalent vaccine booster — the first to target both the original coronavirus and the omicron family of variants — has been tepid. Without a strong marketing push and government resources put into distribution, many Americans are unaware of the booster’s benefits, or even its existence. “The situation is that people are left to decide as individuals,” said Denise Herd, a UC Berkeley behavioral sciences professor in the School of Public Health. “Without a lot of information, without a lot of support for some of these public health measures, we’re going to see what we do now.” To date, only 20.5% of eligible Californians have received the bivalent vaccine, leaving the majority more vulnerable to severe illness. California’s uptake is higher than the national average of 14.6%, but still only a fraction of the 72.5% of people who received the initial two-dose vaccine series. The bivalent vaccine is authorized for Californians older than 6 months, depending on when someone completed their initial two-dose series and when they last received the older “monovalent” booster. Bay Area counties lead the California average in booster uptake, but the proportion is still relatively low, ranging from 23% to 38% of the eligible population. That may be contributing to the sharp increase in local COVID cases in the past month and rising hospitalizations that further tax a medical system already straining with outbreaks of flu and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV. Some fatigue with the pandemic is “natural, expected and real,” said Marin County public health officer Matt Willis. He noted that the term has been used since 2020. Perhaps now, “we’re getting pandemic fatigue fatigue,” Willis said. After all, the ability to self-regulate “is like a muscle that gets tired,” said Benjamin Rosenberg, a psychology professor at Dominican University of California. “Making that risk calculation every time you go out, it’s exhausting,” he said. A recent Chronicle survey found fewer Bay Area residents wearing masks to go to the supermarket, despite the current COVID resurgence. While not a scientific study, comments offered to reporters — people without masks said they “gave up” and wanted to “move on with life” — underscored the public health challenge of encouraging voluntary compliance.

Estimate says 19 million US adults have long COVID - City University of New York (CUNY) researchers estimate that 7.3% of US adult COVID-19 survivors have persistent symptoms—or almost 19 million Americans. Studies in India and Denmark, meanwhile, report rates of 29.0% and 25.0%, respectively. The CUNY team surveyed a random sample of 3,042 adults weighted to 2020 US Census data from Jun 30 to Jul 2, 2022. The results were published today in Clinical Infectious Diseases. An estimated 7.3% of respondents reported long-COVID symptoms, a figure corresponding to about 18.8 million adults, the investigators wrote. A quarter (25.3%) of adults reporting long COVID said that their symptoms affected their ability to complete daily activities "a lot," 44% said they were last had COVID-19 in the last 6 months, 27% said 6 to 12 months earlier, and 29% said it had been more than a year. In models adjusted for age and sex, long COVID was more common among women than men (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR], 1.84) and in those with underlying illnesses (versus none) (aPR, 1.55), those who didn't receive a COVID-19 vaccine booster (versus boosted) (aPR, 1.67), and the unvaccinated (versus boosted) (aPR, 1.41). Long COVID was less common among respondents aged 65 or older than among younger people (aPR, 0.43) and in Black versus White (aPR, 0.60), Hispanic versus White (aPR, 0.57), and Asian/Pacific Islander versus White (aPR, 0.44). "We observed a high burden of long COVID, substantial variability in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and risk factors unique from SARS-CoV-2 risk, suggesting areas for future research," the study authors wrote. "Population-based surveys are an important surveillance tool and supplement to ongoing efforts to monitor long COVID."

Duke researchers find why COVID causes long-term smell loss --  Most people who lose their sense of smell from a COVID infection recover within a few weeks. But an unlucky minority of the population — about 5% according to one study — experience smell and taste loss months or years after their initial infection. Duke researchers may have finally figured out what is happening in the noses of people like Sheehan, who never recover. The process is described in a paper published Wednesday in the journal “Science Translational Medicine.” Understanding this mechanism could help doctors design treatments for the condition, which so far lacks an effective treatment, said Dr. Bradley Goldstein, a Duke neuroscientist who led the research. The researchers gathered 24 nose-tissue samples: nine from people with long-term smell loss from COVID, two from patients who recovered from COVID without smell loss, and 13 from people who never had COVID at all. Coronavirus: Latest news Sign up for our newsletter and get updates on the coronavirus in North Carolina and across the nation. SIGN UP This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. “The findings appeared pretty striking to us — there really are some very obvious differences,” Goldstein said. Under the microscope, his research team found that people with long-term smell loss had obvious inflammation in a part of the nose dedicated to smell. “I’m not talking about sort of this rip-roaring, severe nasal inflammation where you’re super congested, blowing your nose and feeling like you’re sick,” he said. “It’s more at a local microscopic level.” That inflammation could explain why the samples from the smell-loss group had substantially fewer olfactory nerve cells, the “key cells” for smelling, Goldstein said. Furthermore, they found that the inflammation was likely hindering the body’s ability to regenerate the depleted nerve cells. Now that scientists have identified the types of immune cells likely responsible for smell loss, Goldstein said he hopes doctors will look into whether drugs that target those inflammatory signals can be repurposed.

Study Identifies Four Major Subtypes of Long COVID - Weill Cornell Medicine -- The post-COVID syndrome known as long COVID has four major subtypes defined by different clusters of symptoms, according to a study led by researchers at Weill Cornell Medicine. The study, published Dec. 1 in Nature Medicine, was the largest of its kind to examine long COVID. The researchers, who represent clinicians and informaticists, used a machine-learning algorithm to spot symptom patterns in the health records of nearly 35,000 U.S. patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection and later developed lingering long-COVID-type symptoms.  Funded by the National Institutes of Health’s Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) initiative, this research is part of a one-year $9.8 million grant focusing on electronic health record cohort studies, spearheaded by principal investigator Dr. Rainu Kaushal, senior associate dean for clinical research and chair of the Department of Population Health Sciences at Weill Cornell Medicine.“RECOVER is aiming to rapidly elucidate what is happening in long COVID,” said Dr. Kaushal, co-senior author on the study. “Looking at how cases cluster  can profoundly impact the prognosis and care of patients.”Of the four major patterns detected, one featured heart and kidney problems, and included a relatively high proportion of patients infected in the first few months of the pandemic in the U.S. Another pattern included respiratory problems, anxiety, sleep disorders and other symptoms including headache and chest pain; nearly two-thirds of the patients with this pattern were women.“These results should inform ongoing research on the potential mechanisms of long COVID, and potential treatments for it,” said Dr. Fei Wang, an associate professor of population health sciences, who led the study.Viral infections sometimes leave patients with a variety of lingering, often non-specific symptoms. For SARS-CoV-2, these post-infection syndromes are known popularly as “long COVID,” and more formally as “post-acute SARS-CoV-2 infection” (PASC). They appear to be very common; estimates of the number of Americans who have had long COVID run as high as 40 percent of the US adult population.

COVID Isolated People. Long COVID Makes It Worse- A year ago in December, mapping specialist Whitney Tyshynski, 35, was working out 5 days a week with a personal trainer near her home in Alberta, Canada, doing 5k trail runs, lifting heavy weights, and feeling good. Then, in January she got COVID-19. The symptoms never went away. Nowadays, Tyshynski needs a walker to retrieve her mail, a half-block trip she can’t make without fear of fainting. Because she gets dizzy when she drives, she rarely goes anywhere in her car. Going for a dog walk with a friend means sitting in a car and watching the friend and the dogs in an open field. And since fainting at Costco during the summer, she’s afraid to shop by herself. Because she lives alone and her closest relatives are an hour and a half away, Tyshynski is dependent on friends. But she’s reluctant to lean on them because they already have trouble understanding how debilitating her lingering symptoms can be. “I’ve had people pretty much insinuate that I’m lazy,” she says. There’s no question that COVID-19 cut people off from one another. But for those like Tyshynski who have long COVID, that disconnect has never ended. It’s not just that symptoms including extreme fatigue and brain fog make it difficult to socialize; it’s that people who had COVID-19 and recovered are often skeptical that the condition is real. At worst, as Tyshynski has discovered, people don’t take it seriously and accuse those who have it of exaggerating their health woes. In that way, long COVID can be as isolating as the original illness. “Isolation in long COVID comes in various forms and it’s not primarily just that physical isolation,” says Yochai Re’em, MD, a psychiatrist in private practice in New York City who has experienced long COVID and blogs about the condition for Psychology Today. “A different yet equally challenging type of isolation is the emotional isolation, where you need more emotional support, connection with other people who can appreciate what it is you are going through without putting their own needs and desires onto you — and that can be hard to find.”

Chinese megacity Chongqing says people with Covid can go to work 'as normal' — The sprawling Chinese metropolis of Chongqing announced Sunday that public sector employees testing positive for Covid-19 can go to work “as normal,” a remarkable turnaround for a city that only weeks ago had been in the throes of a mass lockdown. The move comes as China continues to quickly unravel its once-stringent zero-Covid policy, with local governments across the nation relaxing costly rules around testing, quarantine and other pandemic policies amid a widespread economic downturn. “Asymptomatic and mildly ill employees of the (Communist Party) and government organizations at all levels, enterprises and institutions can go to work normally after taking protective measures as necessary for their health status and job requirements,” the Chongqing pandemic response office said in a statement published on the municipal government’s website. It added that government agencies would no longer check employees – including police, public school teachers and other workers – for daily negative Covid tests. Instead, authorities will shift the focus of work from preventing infection to health protection and preventing severe disease, it said. The abrupt U-turn is especially stunning in Chongqing, one of China’s largest cities, with 32 million residents and annual GDP of $400 billion. Jerry Cheng, who works at a state-owned construction company in the city and is currently Covid positive, voiced concerns about the announcement. “I won’t go unless they call my name,” he told CNN. “It’s definitely not a good thing to have a group of infected people working together,” he said, adding the new policy was to protect the local economy. Cheng’s anxiety was reflected on Weibo, China’s version of Twitter, on Monday as Chongqing residents reacted to the announcement.

Shanghai schools to go online as Covid spreads in China - China's largest city, Shanghai, has ordered most of its schools to take classes online as Covid cases soar. Nurseries and childcare centres will also shut from Monday, according to Shanghai's education bureau. Restrictions were eased by Chinese authorities earlier this month following a wave of protests targeting China's zero-Covid strategy. But the easing of strict lockdown measures has led to growing concerns over the spread of Covid in China. Significant changes in the country's Covid testing and reporting systems have made it difficult to know just how widespread the virus has become, with data for the week ending 11 December showing a fall in the total number of new infections across the country after peaking the previous week. But prior to the change in data collection, the number of cases was higher than that of the last Covid wave in April. Hospitals and medical facilities have come under increasing strain, with temporary health centres and intensive care facilities being set up across the country. In Shanghai, it has been reported that an extra 230,000 hospital beds have been made available. Some schools in the city have also already stopped in-person classes because teachers and staff are ill. In a statement posted on Chinese social media site WeChat on Saturday, Shanghai's education bureau announced that most year groups in primary and secondary schools would move to online learning from Monday. Students and children who do not have alternative childcare arrangements can apply to attend school. The statement said the measures were being put in place in order to protect the health of teachers and students in line with current coronavirus prevention measures. The decision means that schools in the country's financial hub will be closed for in-person learning until the end of term on 17 January, when the Lunar New Year holiday starts.

China reports 1st COVID-19 deaths in weeks -- and that number may rise, experts say - - China is reporting its first deaths linked to COVID-19 in weeks as cases surge amid the country lifting many of its so-called "zero COVID" policies. The deaths, which were reported on Monday by the National Health Commission and occurred in Beijing, are the first recorded since Dec. 4.. No information was available about the deaths including the names, ages, sex and vaccination status of the patients. For most of the pandemic, China has implemented strict measures, including widespread lockdowns and mass testing in an attempt to prevent outbreaks. But over the past few months, there have been large outcries and growing public resentment over the disruption to daily life, leading Beijing to ease some restrictions such as people being allowed to isolate at home and schools without known infections being able to resume classes. However, a public health expert told ABC News a combination of under-vaccination and large swaths of unprotected vulnerable populations will lead to more deaths. "What will happen with the new policy right now is most of the population in China will be infected by COVID," said Dr. Ali Mokdad, an epidemiologist and chief strategy officer at the University of Washington Population Health Initiative. "In one way or another, they'll be infected." According to the NHC, China has only recorded 5,237 COVID-19 deaths -- much lower than the tolls reported by other Western countries -- since the pandemic began, but experts agree this is likely an undercount. According to data from Johns Hopkins, China has had over 16,000 deaths since the pandemic started. Mokdad said health officials only include those who died directly from COVID-19 in the official death count. Those with underlying medical conditions that were exacerbated by the virus or who incidentally tested positive for COVID are excluded. However, he expects the number of deaths will rise over the next several weeks and months.

60% Of China Likely To Get Covid, Millions May Die: Top Epidemiologist -- After the easing of Covid-19 restrictions, China is experiencing a massive surge in coronavirus cases. Hospitals are completely overwhelmed in China, reported Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist and health economist.⚠️THERMONUCLEAR BAD—Hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions dropped. Epidemiologist estimate >60% of & 10% of Earth's population likely infected over next 90 days. Deaths likely in the millions—plural. This is just the start—pic.twitter.com/VAEvF0ALg9 The epidemiologist estimates that more than 60 per cent of China and 10 per cent of Earth's population are likely to be infected over the next 90 days with deaths likely in the millions.One of Beijing's designated crematoria for Covid-19 patients has been flooded with dead bodies in recent days as the virus sweeps through the Chinese capital, offering an early hint at the human cost of the country's abrupt loosening of pandemic restrictions, reported Wall Street Journal. According to Feigl-Ding, the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) goal is "let whoever needs to be infected, infected, let whoever needs to die, die. Early infections, early deaths, early peak, early resumption of production." China has reported no Covid deaths in Beijing since the authorities announced four deaths between November 19 and 23. The information office for China's cabinet, the State Council, didn't immediately respond to a request for comment sent late on Friday.Beijing Dongjiao Crematory, on the eastern edge of the Chinese capital, has experienced a jump in requests for cremation and other funerary services, according to people who work at the compound, reported WSJ."Since the Covid reopening, we've been overloaded with work," said a woman who answered the phone at the crematorium on Friday, adding, "Right now, it's 24 hours a day. We can't keep up." The woman said Dongjiao Crematory, which is operated by Beijing municipality and which the National Health Commission has designated to handle Covid-positive cases, was receiving so many bodies that it was conducting cremations in the predawn hours and in the middle of the night. "There's no other way," she said.  She estimated that there were roughly 200 bodies arriving each day at the crematorium, from 30 or 40 bodies on a typical day. The increased workload has taxed the crematorium staff, many of whom have become infected with the fast-spreading virus in recent days, she said.

China Covid: Health expert predicts three winter waves - A top Chinese health official says he believes China is experiencing the first of three expected waves of Covid infections this winter. The country is seeing a surge in cases since the lifting of its most severe restrictions earlier this month. The latest official figures appear to show a relatively low number of new daily cases. However, there are concerns that these numbers are an underestimate due to a recent reduction in Covid testing. The government reported only 2,097 new daily cases on Sunday. Epidemiologist Wu Zunyou has said he believes the current spike in infections would run until mid-January, while the second wave would then be triggered by mass travel in January around the week-long Lunar New Year celebrations which begin on 21 January. Millions of people usually travel at this time to spend the holiday with family. The third surge in cases would run from late February to mid-March as people return to work after the holiday, Dr Wu said. He told a conference on Saturday that current vaccinations levels offered a certain level of protection against the surges and had resulted in a drop in the number of severe cases. Overall, China says more than 90% of its population has been fully vaccinated. However, less than half of people aged 80 and over have received three doses of vaccine. Elderly people are more likely to suffer severe Covid symptoms. China has developed and produced its own vaccines, which have been shown to be less effective at protecting people against serious Covid illness and death than the mRNA vaccines used in much of the rest of the world.

'I don't trust it:' Vaccine hesitancy lingers even as China COVID cases surge (Reuters) - Headhunter Candice knows the COVID-19 infections engulfing Beijing and much of China will soon hit her home of Shenzhen city, but she would rather face it without a vaccine booster, saying she fears potential side effects more than the virus. The 28-year-old took two doses of Sinovac's CoronaVac last year, hoping it would make travel easier, but she has since grown more sceptical, citing stories from friends about health impacts, as well as similar health warnings on social media. "I don't trust it," she said, speaking on the condition that only her first name be used. Candice said she has refused to participate in recent vaccination drives organised by her local community. Candice is part of a group that demonstrates how vaccine hesitancy still runs deep in mainland China, academics say, which poses a growing headache for Beijing as it tries to persuade more to get vaccinated in the face of a spike in infections after the lifting of strict anti-COVID measures. Officially, China's vaccination rate is above 90%, but the rate for boostered adults drops to 57.9%, and to 42.3% for people aged 80 and above, according to government data, prompting warnings that the country could see over 1.5 million deaths after lifting curbs such as lockdowns and mass testing that held most virus spread at bay. read more In September, an article by a publication under the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) acknowledged coverage of older adults was poor, and that the absence of local doctors in vaccine drives, poor medical understanding and a lack of insurance for potential side effects all dampened enthusiasm.

Packed ICUs, crowded crematoriums: COVID roils Chinese towns - As China grapples with its first-ever national COVID-19 wave, emergency wards in small cities and towns southwest of Beijing are overwhelmed. Intensive care units are turning away ambulances, relatives of sick people are searching for open beds, and patients are slumped on benches in hospital corridors and lying on floors for a lack of beds. Yao’s elderly mother-in-law had fallen ill a week ago with the coronavirus. They went first to a local hospital, where lung scans showed signs of pneumonia. But the hospital couldn’t handle serious COVID-19 cases, Yao was told. She was told to go to larger hospitals in adjacent counties. As Yao and her husband drove from hospital to hospital, they found all the wards were full. Zhuozhou Hospital, an hour’s drive from Yao’s hometown, was the latest disappointment. Yao charged toward the check-in counter, past wheelchairs frantically moving elderly patients. Yet again, she was told the hospital was full, and that she would have to wait. The ICU was so crowded, ambulances were turned away. A medical worker shouted at relatives wheeling in a patient from an arriving ambulance. “There’s no oxygen or electricity in this corridor!” the worker exclaimed. “If you can’t even give him oxygen, how can you save him?” “If you don’t want any delays, turn around and get out quickly!” she said. The relatives left, hoisting the patient back into the ambulance. It took off, lights flashing. Over two days, Associated Press journalists visited five hospitals and two crematoriums in towns and small cities in Baoding and Langfang prefectures, in central Hebei province. The area was the epicenter of one of China’s first outbreaks after the state loosened COVID-19 controls in November and December. For weeks, the region went quiet, as people fell ill and stayed home. Many have now recovered. Today, markets are bustling, diners pack restaurants and cars are honking in snarling traffic, even as the virus is spreading in other parts of China. In recent days, headlines in state media said the area is “ starting to resume normal life.” But life in central Hebei’s emergency wards and crematoriums is anything but normal. Even as the young go back to work and lines at fever clinics shrink, many of Hebei’s elderly are falling into critical condition. As they overrun ICUs and funeral homes, it could be a harbinger of what’s to come for the rest of China.

Leaked notes from Chinese health officials estimate 250 million Covid-19 infections in December: report- — Almost 250 million people in China may have caught Covid-19 in the first 20 days of December, according to an internal estimate from the nation’s top health officials, Bloomberg News and the Financial Times reported Friday. If correct, the estimate – which CNN cannot independently confirm – would account for roughly 18% of China’s 1.4 billion people and represent the largest Covid-19 outbreak to date globally. The figures cited were presented during an internal meeting of China’s National Health Commission (NHC) on Wednesday, according to both outlets – which cited sources familiar with the matter or involved in the discussions. The NHC summary of Wednesday’s meeting said it delved into the treatment of patients affected by the new outbreak. On Friday, a copy of what was purportedly the NHC meeting notes was circulated on Chinese social media and seen by CNN; the authenticity of the document has not been verified and the NHC did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Both the Financial Times and Bloomberg laid out in great detail the discussions by authorities over how to handle the outbreak. Among the estimates cited in both reports, was the revelation that on Tuesday alone, 37 million people were newly infected with Covid-19 across China. That stood in dramatic contrast to the official number of 3,049 new infections reported that day. The Financial Times said it was Sun Yang – a deputy director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention – who presented the figures to officials during the closed-door briefing, citing two people familiar with the matter. Sun explained that the rate of Covid’s spread in China was still rising and estimated that more than half of the population in Beijing and Sichuan were already infected, according to the Financial Times. The estimates follow China’s decision at the start of December to abruptly dismantle its strict zero-Covid policy which had been in place for almost three years. The figures are in stark contrast to the public data of the NHC, which reported just 62,592 symptomatic Covid cases in the first twenty days of December. Officially, China has reported only eight Covid deaths this month – a strikingly low figure given the rapid spread of the virus and the relatively low vaccine booster rates among the elderly. Only 42.3% of those aged 80 and over in China have received a third dose of vaccine, according to a CNN calculation of new figures released by the NHC on December 14. Facing growing skepticism that it is downplaying Covid deaths, the Chinese government defended the accuracy of its official tally by revealing it had updated its method of counting fatalities caused by the virus. According to the latest NHC guidelines, only deaths caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure after contracting the virus are classified as Covid deaths, Wang Guiqiang, a top infectious disease doctor, told a news conference Tuesday.

Flu/COVID Co-Infections Potentially More Severe in Kids, CDC Says - The CDC warned that co-infections with COVID-19 and influenza can potentially cause more severe illness in children, and need to be tracked. Surveillance data from the 2021-2022 influenza season revealed that 6% of flu-related hospitalizations and 16% of flu-related deaths involved children co-infected with COVID-19, Katherine Adams, MPH, of the CDC in Atlanta, and colleagues reported.  Of the seven co-infected children who died, none had received the flu shot, although six were eligible, according to the findings in the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reportopens in a new tab or window. Co-infected children were more likely to require bilevel positive airway pressure (BiPAP) or continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) compared with those who only had the flu (16% vs 6%, respectively, P=0.05), and they were also more likely to need invasive mechanical ventilation (13% vs 4%, P=0.03). Influenza antivirals were underutilized, "particularly among persons aged <18 years with influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 co-infections who died," the group wrote, noting that only one of the seven children who died had been given influenza antivirals. The 2021-2022 influenza season had 44 pediatric deaths attributed to influenza, while to date there have already been 21 pediatric influenza deaths in the current 2022-2023 season. "These findings represent a small number of cases of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 co-infection, thereby limiting the ability to draw firm conclusions," the group cautioned, but added that "the high degree of co-circulation of multiple respiratory viruses during the current season, and the higher-than-usual early-season influenza activity, underscore the importance of increasing awareness among parents and providers that influenza and SARS-CoV-2 co-infections occur in pediatric patients and that co-infection can potentially cause more severe illness."

Covid, flu, RSV: Tripledemic means masking up again, says virus expert  - Most Americans aren’t wearing face masks anymore — and their timing isn’t great, says a leading infectious disease expert. Just 26% of Americans reported in October that they’re wearing masks outside of their homes. That’s a decrease of about 20% to 50% from 2020 and 2021, according to data collected by the Covid States Project.At the same time, Covid-19, the flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are all spreading at alarming rates, overwhelming hospitals nationwide. Covid alone currently accounts for 386 deaths per day, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.The flu and RSV likely add to that figure, though the agency doesn’t report the number of deaths per day for those viruses.“We have always been fearing that these viruses were going to come back, but then as they came, they came back too fast and too furious,” Dr. Diego Hijano, an infectious disease specialist with a focus on pediatric infections at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, tells CNBC Make It.Even though fewer people are masking these days, masks still work — protecting you against infection and transmission, especially indoors and in packed outdoor settings.“Everyone needs to know that masking really does protect individuals against all three viruses,” Hijano saysYou’ll need to decide when, where and if you’ll mask up this winter. Here are Hijano’s recommendations.

CDC issues warning about Strep A infections in children -  The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a health advisory on Thursday warning clinicians and public health authorities about a recent rise in invasive strep A infections in children. The CDC was notified of a possible increase in infections at a hospital in Colorado in November, and possible increases in infections in other states were noted in the Infectious Diseases Society of America’s provider-based Emerging Infections Network.The CDC says places where there have been an increase in respiratory syncytial virus, influenza viruses, COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses have also seen an increase in strep A infections.While the number of overall cases have remained low and invasive strep A infections remain rare in children, the CDC said it’s investigating the rise in cases and has issued the health advisory. Invasive group A streptococcal bacteria “can cause a range of illnesses, from pharyngitis (i.e., strep throat) and skin and soft tissue infections to uncommon but severe diseases such as sepsis, streptococcal toxic shock syndrome and necrotizing fasciitis. These severe and invasive diseases are associated with high mortality rates and require immediate treatment, including appropriate antibiotic therapy,” according to the CDC. Groups with the highest risk levels include:

  • People aged 65 years or older
  • American Indian and Alaska Native populations
  • Residents of long-term care facilities
  • People with medical conditions such as diabetes, malignancy, immunosuppression, chronic kidney, cardiac or respiratory disease
  • People with wounds or skin disease
  • People who inject drugs or who are experiencing homelessness. 
  • Recommendations can be found here.

The UK’s Strep A child deaths and the causes of the “tripledemic” - Nineteen children in the UK have been killed by Strep A in recent weeks, approaching the 27 child deaths recorded in the whole 2017-2018 season, the last major outbreak. The majority of cases normally come between early February and April. There have been 7,750 cases of scarlet fever—caused by Strep A infection—so far this season, more than treble the number at the same point in 2017-2018, with doctors worried that numbers still have not peaked. S. pyogenes (also known as GAS) is the causative agent in Group A streptococcal infections, (GAS) including strep throat, acute rheumatic fever, scarlet fever, acute glomerulonephritis and necrotizing fasciitis. [Photo: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Public Health Image Library] In rare cases, the bacteria can get into the bloodstream and cause invasive group A strep (iGAS). According to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) data published December 2, there have been 2.3 cases of invasive disease per 100,000 children aged one to four, compared with an average of 0.5 in the pre-pandemic seasons (2017 to 2019), and 1.1 cases per 100,000 children aged five to nine, compared to 0.3 pre-pandemic. The deaths of these children, caused by a very treatable disease, have been the focus of much national attention. But it is important to separate the genuine popular sympathy and concern from the ulterior motives of the corporate media, which has used these tragedies to bury the broader public health disaster this winter under an exclusive focus on Strep A. Earlier in the year, the phrase “tripledemic”—referring to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza and COVID-19—was commonplace. Its use in the papers and broadcast networks has declined as the predicted surge has begun to take hold. Positivity rates for RSV were 7.7 percent between December 5-11, and 20 percent for children under five. For these younger children, the hospitalisation rate is 18.5 per 100,000. Diseases with their heaviest impact on older people are also on the rise. In the last week, the number of patients in hospital with the flu increased from 966 to 1,377. At the current rate, admissions next week could pass the peak of the 2017-18 flu outbreak which caused close to 30,000 deaths. COVID is also surging, with the number of patients in hospital being treated primarily for the disease increasing 17 percent December 6-13, to 5,982. An estimated one in 50 were infected in the week to December 3, up from one in 60 the week before. More than 37,000 peoplehave already been killed by the virus this year, with its deadliest phase usually beginning in late December. The precise balance of causes of these unprecedented increases in non-COVID diseases is being debated in the scientific community. Two things are certain. The government is responsible, as with COVID, for allowing the crisis to develop. And the anti-public health right-wing is using people’s suffering to sow confusion and agitate against measures to prevent the spread of disease. These reactionaries, given a platform in papers like the Daily Telegraph, have promoted the idea of an “immunity debt” caused by lockdowns—a slackening in each person’s immune system due to a lack of exposure to illness, which must be repaid through infection. This is just a new rendering of the pseudo-scientific “herd immunity” policy, used to justify the claim that it would have been better had no public health measures been implemented in the last two years.

Under attack: Researchers shed light on how Lyme disease infects body - An estimated 476,000 Americans are infected each year with Lyme disease, a condition causing a wide range of symptoms that include fever, rash, and joint pain, as well as effects on the central nervous system and heart. Though it's common knowledge that Borrelia burgdorferi—the bacteria that causes the disease—enters the body through the bite of an infected deer tick, how the bacteria manages to migrate from that bite into a person's bloodstream has not been clearly understood. Johns Hopkins engineers may have found the answer. Using a custom designed three-dimensional tissue-engineered model, they learned that B. burgdorferi uses tenacious trial-and-error movements to find and slip through tiny openings called junctions in the lining of blood vessels near the original bite site. This allows them to hitch a ride on the bloodstream throughout the body, potentially infecting other tissue and organs. Their results appear today in Advanced Science. "Our observations showed that if the bacteria did not find one of these junctions on the first try, they continued searching until one was found," said team leader Peter Searson, professor in the Whiting School of Engineering's Department of Materials Science and Engineering and core researcher at Johns Hopkins Institute for NanoBioTechnology. "The bacteria spend an hour or two using this behavior to find their way into the blood vessels, but once there, they are in circulation in a matter of seconds."

Common food dye can trigger inflammatory bowel diseases, say researchers - Long-term consumption of Allura Red food dye can be a potential trigger of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs), Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, says McMaster University's Waliul Khan. Researchers using experimental animal models of IBD found that continual exposure to Allura Red AC harms gut health and promotes inflammation. The dye directly disrupts gut barrier function and increases the production of serotonin, a hormone/neurotransmitter found in the gut, which subsequently alters gut microbiota composition leading to increased susceptibility to colitis. Khan said Allura Red (also called FD&C Red 40 and Food Red 17), is a common ingredient in candies, soft drinks, dairy products and some cereals. The dye is used to add color and texture to foodstuffs, often to attract children. The use of synthetic food dyes such as Allura Red has increased significantly over the last several decades, but there has been little earlier study of these dyes' effects on gut health. Khan and his team published their findings in Nature Communications. Yun Han (Eric) Kwon, who recently completed Ph.D. in Khan's laboratory, is first author. "This study demonstrates significant harmful effects of Allura Red on gut health and identifies gut serotonin as a critical factor mediating these effects. These findings have important implication in the prevention and management of gut inflammation," said Khan, the study's senior author, a professor of the Department of Pathology and Molecular Medicine and a principal investigator of Farncombe Family Digestive Health Research Institute. "What we have found is striking and alarming, as this common synthetic food dye is a possible dietary trigger for IBDs. This research is a significant advance in alerting the public on the potential harms of food dyes that we consume daily," he said. "The literature suggests that the consumption of Allura Red also affects certain allergies, immune disorders and behavioral problems in children, such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder."

Avian flu outbreak wipes out 50.54 mln U.S. birds, a record  (Reuters) - Avian flu has wiped out 50.54 million birds in the United States this year, making it the country's deadliest outbreak in history, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed on Thursday. The deaths of chickens, turkeys and other birds represent the worst U.S. animal-health disaster to date, topping the previous record of 50.5 million birds that died in an avian-flu outbreak in 2015. Birds often die after becoming infected. Entire flocks, which can top a million birds at egg-laying chicken farms, are also culled to control the spread of the disease after a bird tests positive. Losses of poultry flocks sent prices for eggs and turkey meat to record highs, worsening economic pain for consumers facing red-hot inflation and making Thursday's Thanksgiving celebrations more expensive in the United States. Europe and Britain are also suffering their worst avian-flu crises, and some British supermarkets rationed customers' egg purchases after the outbreak disrupted supplies. The U.S. outbreak, which began in February, infected flocks of poultry and non-poultry birds across 46 states, USDA data show. Wild birds like ducks transmit the virus, known as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), through their feces, feathers or direct contact with poultry.

COP15 Biodiversity Talks: Countries Sign On to “30x30” Conservation Plan - — Roughly 190 countries early on Monday approved a sweeping United Nations agreement to protect 30 percent of the planet’s land and oceans by 2030 and to take a slew of other measures against biodiversity loss, a mounting under-the-radar crisis that, if left unchecked, jeopardizes the planet’s food and water supplies as well as the existence of untold species around the world. The agreement comes as biodiversity is declining worldwide at rates never seen before in human history. Researchers have projected that a million plants and animals are at risk of extinction, many within decades. The last extinction event of that magnitude was the one that killed off the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.While many scientists and advocates had pushed for even stronger measures, the deal, which includes monitoring mechanisms that previous agreements had lacked, clearly signals increasing momentum around the issue. “This is a huge moment for nature,” Brian O’Donnell, director of the Campaign for Nature, a coalition of groups pushing for protections, said about the agreement. “This is a scale of conservation that we haven’t seen ever attempted before.” Overall, the deal lays out a suite of 23 environmental targets. The most prominent, known as 30x30, would place 30 percent of land and sea under protection. Currently, about 17 percent of the planet’s land and roughly 8 percent of its oceans are protected, with restrictions on activities like fishing, farming and mining. The United States is just one of two countries in the world that are not party to the Convention on Biological Diversity, largely because Republicans, who are typically opposed to joining treaties, have blocked United States membership. That means the American delegation was required to participate from the sidelines. (The only other country that has not joined the treaty is the Holy See.) A previous 10-year agreement failed to fully achieve a single target at the global level, according to the body that oversees the Convention on Biological Diversity, the United Nations treaty that underpins the old agreement and the new one reached here on Monday. But negotiators said they had learned from their mistakes, and the new pact includes provisions to make targets measurable and to monitor countries’ progress.  While there are multiple causes of biodiversity loss, humans are behind each one. On land, the biggest driver is agriculture. At sea, it’s overfishing. Other factors include hunting, mining, logging, climate change, pollution and invasive species.

Male fruit flies found to transfer chemical to females to induce sleep, so they won't mate with other males - A team of researchers from Bariloche Atomic Center and Fundación Instituto Leloir—IIBBA—CONICET, both in Argentina, has found that male fruit flies inject females with a chemical while mating that makes them sleep after sex so that they will not mate with other males.

To protect lobstermen, spending bill may speed whales’ extinction, activists say - Lawmakers from Maine have inserted a provision in a massive government funding bill to buffer lobstermen from new regulations, but environmental groups warn it could push the critically endangered North Atlantic right whales to the brink of extinction.The provision could sharply curtail the federal government’s ability to prevent right whales from getting entangled in fishing lines used to catch lobsters, environmentalists say. But the bipartisan group of Maine lawmakers that pushed to include the provision, known as a policy rider, contend that the government has sought to regulate the state’s lobstermen out of business.The language in the legislation released Tuesday sets up a clash over the species’ survival on Capitol Hill just days before government funding runs out at midnight Friday. Congress is racing to pass a set of bills, known as an omnibus, that would fund federal agencies through the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30.“It’s not an exaggeration to say that this rider will doom the right whale to extinction,” said Jane Davenport, a senior attorney at the environmental group Defenders of Wildlife. “Even if you got rid of all other sources of mortality, entanglements with fishing gear alone are enough to drive the species to extinction by reducing births and increasing deaths.”Lawmakers from Maine on both sides of the aisle — including Republican Sen. Susan Collins, independent Sen. Angus King and Democratic Rep. Jared Golden — counter that the state’s thousands of licensed lobstermen do everything required under the law to reduce the risk of harming right whales.“You know what kills most whales? Ships,” King said in an interview Monday evening. “Why aren’t we banning all ships all along the East Coast of the United States if we’re saying we can’t do anything that remotely threatens the whales? Instead we’re picking on 5,000 small-business people in Maine. It’s unfair and wrong.”

Biodiversity group says omnibus puts right whale ‘on an irreversible extinction trajectory’ - The Center for Biological Diversity on Thursday said the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending package moving through Congress will put North Atlantic right whales on the path toward an “irreversible extinction.” A provision inserted into the bill by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) would allow the U.S. lobster fishery to delay for six years new rules that would place restrictions on fishing gear that would stop the equipment from entangling and killing the endangered whales, the group said. The Senate on Thursday passed the omnibus spending package, kicking it back to the House to clear before government funding runs out at the end of Friday. Stephanie Kurose, a senior policy specialist at the Center for Biological Diversity, slammed Schumer on Thursday, saying the “needless suffering” the whales “will endure is heartbreaking.” “Extinction is a political choice, and Schumer just made it clear that he’s willing to pander to special interests over protecting these mighty giants,” Kurose said in a statement. Fewer than 350 North Atlantic Right Whales are left, including less than 100 breeding females, according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. Commercial whalers hunted the species to the brink of extinction by the 1890s. The whales, which have been listed as endangered since 1970, has never fully recovered. Entanglement in fishing nets and vessel strikes are leading causes of mortality for the species. Activists have long called for the fishing and lobster industry, particularly in Maine, to stop using rope gear because right whales can get tangled up in it. After a legal challenge, a federal judge in July ruled the Maine lobster industry must adopt new, stricter regulations by 2024. But the provision in the omnibus prevents any new federal regulations from taking effect through 2028. The senators from Maine, Susan Collins (D) and Angus King (I), authored the rider in the Senate along with Maine Democratic Reps. Chellie Pingree and Jared Golden in the House. In a joint statement this week, the congressional lawmakers said there has never been a death attributed to fishing gear, accusing “misguided environmental groups” of “seeking actions that would end lobstering in Maine.” “Without our provision, Maine’s iconic industry could be facing a complete shutdown—and the ripple effects across our state would have been widespread,” the statement reads. 

Microplastics deposited on the seafloor have tripled in 20 years - The total amount of microplastics deposited on the bottom of oceans has tripled in the past two decades with a progression that corresponds to the type and volume of consumption of plastic products by society. This is the main conclusion of a study developed by the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, which provides the first high-resolution reconstruction of microplastic pollution from sediments obtained in the north-western Mediterranean Sea. Despite the seafloor being considered the final sink for microplastics floating on the sea surface, the historical evolution of this pollution source in the sediment compartment, and particularly the sequestration and burial rate of smaller microplastics on the ocean floor, is unknown. This new study, published in the journal Environmental Science and Technology, shows that microplastics are retained unaltered in marine sediments, and that the microplastic mass sequestered in the seafloor mimics the global plastic production from 1965 to 2016. "Specifically, the results show that, since 2000, the amount of plastic particles deposited on the seafloor has tripled and that, far from decreasing, the accumulation has not stopped growing mimicking the production and global use of these materials," Researchers explains that the sediments analyzed have remained unaltered on the seafloor since they were deposited decades ago. "This has allowed us to see how, since the 1980s, but especially in the past two decades, the accumulation of polyethylene and polypropylene particles from packaging, bottles and food films has increased, as well as polyester from synthetic fibers in clothing fabrics," The amount of these three types of particles reaches 1.5mg per kilogram of sediment collected, with polypropylene being the most abundant, followed by polyethylene and polyester. Despite awareness campaigns on the need to reduce single-use plastic, data from annual marine sediment records show that we are still far from achieving this. Policies at the global level in this regard could contribute to improving this serious problem. Although smaller microplastics are very abundant in the environment, constraints in analytical methods have limited robust evidence on the levels of small microplastics in previous studies targeting marine sediment. In this study they were characterized by applying state-of-the-art imaging to quantify particles down to 11 µm in size. The degradation status of the buried particles was investigated, and it was found that, once trapped in the seafloor, they no longer degrade, either due to lack of erosion, oxygen, or light. "The process of fragmentation takes place mostly in the beach sediments, on the sea surface or in the water column. Once deposited, degradation is minimal, so plastics from the 1960s remain on the seabed, leaving the signature of human pollution there," says Patrizia Ziveri, ICREA professor at ICTA-UAB.

Household water wells are drying up in record numbers as California drought worsens - For almost four decades, water flowed faithfully from Fred and Robin Imfeld's private well here in rural Tehama County, a region where thirsty orchards of walnuts, almonds, plums and olives stretch across thousands of acres. But that reliable supply of household water began to sputter last year, and then ceased completely this summer amid California's driest three-year period on record. Now, the Imfelds and other residents here are scrambling to find alternate water sources, and trucking in supplies to fill massive, portable water tanks that have sprouted up throughout the community. "It's just like, one after another of these wells just keep popping dry, and if we have another hot summer like this year and last year, or [another year with little] rainfall, it's going to double." Across California, domestic wells are drying up in record numbers due to severe drought and the overpumping of underground aquifers. The crisis has hit rural farming areas particularly hard and left some families to fend for themselves or wait years for permanent solutions as nonprofits, state water officials and well drillers struggle with a growing backlog of assistance requests. This year, nearly 1,400 household wells have been reported dry—a nearly 40% increase over the same period last year, and the highest annual number reported since 2013, when the California Department of Water Resources launched the Dry Well Reporting System. The actual number of dry wells is likely higher because reporting is voluntary. Areas with the highest number of well failures included Fresno, Madera, Tulare and Tehama counties—Central Valley regions where surface water shortages have driven growers to drill deeper and deeper irrigation wells. "We're probably seeing more [dry wells] now than we've ever seen in the past," said Tami McVay, program director of Self-Help Enterprises, a community development organization that, among other things, operates a tank and hauled-water program for low-income families. Currently, some 1,600 households are receiving water assistance from Self-Help, and an additional couple hundred are relying on community water tanks, she said.

Wells Run Dry -JUST OFF A STONY ROAD hardly wider than a single car, a brown gate marks the entrance to Saravati Devi’s yard. There, on a recent September afternoon, a black cow grazed in the shade of a lone tree with the enthusiasm of a kid enduring sugar-free cereal. Devi lives and farms at the edge of a village in the Indian state of Haryana, part of the nation’s northern plains, where much of the country’s food is grown. Grass fodder is one of Devi’s main crops, and though her cows still have enough to eat, it has not been a good year. Like nearly every farmer across this region, she also grows wheat and rice paddies, the main crops that state and central governments buy at a set price each year—each of which requires massive amounts of water, rice paddies in particular. Devi has long relied on rainfall to irrigate her land, but this year the monsoon did not provide. As climate change accelerates, monsoon season has become increasingly erratic, sometimes dropping too much water for the soil to absorb, sometimes dropping nothing at all. Although Haryana received slightly above average rain from June to September, hardly any came down between the start of August and the very end of September, when the sky suddenly seemed to disgorge all it had been withholding. This irregularity plagues the wider region: India’s drought-prone area has shot up 57 percent since 1997, and almost two-thirds of the nation experienced drought between 2020–2022, but in Pakistan this year, floods submerged one-third of the country and forced 33 million people from their homes. There is no comprehensive canal irrigation system across the northern plain states of Haryana and Punjab, so, for most farmers, any water that doesn’t fall from above has to come from underground. To get to it, farmers rely on electric pumps that are far too expensive for most to afford without a massive loan, often two to three times their average yearly household income. To pay off the debt, farmers are forced to increase their production of higher margin, water-intensive crops like rice, in the process pillaging India’s largest aquifer system. Portions of it are plummeting by around three feet every year. The groundwater in around 60 percent of Haryana’s administrative “blocks” is overexploited. The water table is falling so fast that families buckling under the debt incurred from one well may soon have to finance another, deeper well—assuming the aquifer is still there to deplete.This past July, Devi got a loan and installed her first pump. It was not an easy process.

How a policy to address a groundwater shortage inadvertently increased air pollution in northern India New research from Harvard University finds that a government policy that delayed rice planting in northwest India may have had an unintended consequence for air quality in the region. The policy, which was first adopted in 2008, required farmers to push back the sowing of rice to take advantage of monsoon rains and decrease the reliance on groundwater-fed irrigation systems. As a result, farmers in northwest India began to increasingly rely on fire to quickly clear fields in preparation for the next planting season. The seemingly small shift in the planting season had a cascading effect that delayed the fire season by about two weeks and exacerbated air pollution in northern India, including in the megacity of New Delhi and in the cities of Bathinda (Punjab) and Jind (Haryana). The research was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. Over the past decade, researchers had linked an increase in post-monsoon smoke and smog in northern India—visible from satellite images—partly to agricultural burning, but how the change in the timing of fires in northwest India affects regional air quality had been less explored. "We know that the number and intensity of agricultural fires in northwest India have been growing, but this trend can be attributed to many factors, including higher crop yield and production and shorter harvest-to-sowing windows due to the groundwater policy," "The delay in the burning of rice residues is more directly linked to the policy that pushed back the planting season. Our research isolates this effect on air quality and shows that the change in timing alone increased smoke air pollution in urban and rural areas downwind of the fires. The impact of fires on air quality is even greater if we consider that the delays in rice planting and harvests further incentivize the use of fire."

Snow piling up at an unprecedented pace, Japan - Heavy sea effect snow continues affecting Japan, producing record-breaking snow amounts over parts of the country. Heavy sea-effect snow and the coldest air mass of the season started affecting Japan last week, forcing authorities to issue blizzard warnings for many parts of the country.1 Sukayu in Aomori Prefecture, known as the snowiest place in Japan, accumulated 145 cm (57 inches) of snow on the ground by December 15 — representing 132% of normal. On the same day, Shumarinai recorded 127 cm (50 inches) of snow on the ground — 117% of normal, and Hijiori 97 cm (38.2 inches) — 146% of normal. In 48 hours to December 17, Hijiori registered 134 cm (52.7 inches), surpassing the previous December record of 107 cm (42.1 inches). During the same period, Obanazawa recorded 104 cm (40.9 inches) — also setting a new December record, while Shinjo recorded 89 cm (35 inches), making it an all-time record and 390% of normal. himawari-9 0440z december 19 2022 bg Image credit: JMA/Himawari-9, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers Heavy snow continued falling over the weekend and into the new week. In Tadami, Fukushima Prefecture, 110 cm (43.3 inches) accumulated in 24 hours to 08:00 LT on December 19, making it an all-time record. Nagaoka, Niigata measured 103 cm (40.5 inches) during the same period, Kaneyama 102 cm (40.1 inches), and Ohkura, Yamagata 101 cm (39.7 inches) — all are now new all-time 24-hour snowfall records. As of December 19, Hijiori accumulated 231 cm (90.9 inches) on the ground, renewing a record for December. The maximum snowfall expected in 24 hours to 06:00 LT on December 20 stands at 80 cm (31.4 inches) in the Hokuriku region and 70 cm (27.5 inches) in the Tohoku region, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).

Arctic blast breaks numerous daily temperature records across Alberta, Canada - An Arctic air mass brought extremely cold temperatures to Alberta, Canada over the past couple of days, breaking many daily minimum temperature records on December 20 and December 21. On December 20, most of these records were broken during the morning hours, however, a few of these records were broken late in the evening: (long list)

Roads ice over as winter storm hits Oregon -  The Oregon Department of Transportation said multiple highways including Interstate 5 were closed Thursday night as a winter storm brings freezing rain and ice to western Oregon. At about 8 p.m., ODOT recommended drivers stay off highways if possible, and did not have an estimate for when current closed roads would open:

  • I-84 is closed in both directions in the Columbia River Gorge from Troutdale to Hood River due to hazardous conditions caused by winter weather.
  • Historic Columbia River Highway, east of Corbett, no access to Vista House
  • Interstate 5 is closed at milepost 200 north of Eugene due to multiple vehicles sliding in freezing rain.
  • U.S. 30 is closed at the landslide location between Astoria and Clatskanie due to freezing rain.
  • OR 22 is closed east of Lyons due to multiple vehicle crashes in freezing rain.
  • There are crashes on US 20 east of Newport and OR 126 east of Florence.

Winter Storm Raises Fears and Scrambles Plans as It Moves South - A perilous brew of winds, heavy snow and ice and plunging temperatures swept across a swath of the United States on Thursday, leaving at least five dead and upending holiday plans during one of the busiest weeks for travel. By Thursday evening, the storm had bulled its way from the Upper Midwest — where it was regarded as dangerous and ill-timed, but nothing residents had not seen before — into the less familiar terrain of the South and Texas. There, it delivered subfreezing, and even subzero, temperatures in places where many residents have painful memories of the devastation wrought by Winter Storm Uri in February 2021. “We’ve had folks that have come into the shelter after double amputations as a result of Winter Storm Uri,” said Daniel Roby, the chief executive of Austin Street Center, a shelter in Dallas. “Typically in Texas, we didn’t have that kind of weather. The past couple of years, we’ve had really bad storms, so we’re learning from that experience. We know now we need to do more than we’ve ever done before.” Forecasters said that the storm’s fury came from its scope, which covered most of the eastern half of the country, from the Canadian border to the Gulf Coast, under a mass of Arctic air that brought even colder wind chills. More than 150 million people are under warnings or advisories of wind chill temperatures that could dip to 40 degrees below zero in the Intermountain West and into the Plains. In some places it could plummet as low as 70 degrees below zero, which can cause frostbite in minutes. The Arctic blast is not unusual, but this year it has combined with a “bomb cyclone” — a rapidly intensifying storm — to bring about these extreme wind chills. Individually, the winds, snow and subzero temperatures are not all that troubling, forecasters said, but they have coalesced into something ferocious. “What makes this storm unusual is the combination,” said Brett Borchardt, a meteorologist from the Chicago office of the National Weather Service. The frigid temperatures create fluffier snow, which combined with 45- to 55-mile-per-hour wind gusts can make for white-out conditions and perilous travel. At least three people in Kansas and two in Oklahoma were killed in crashes that appeared to be related to the storm, officials said. High winds and blizzard-like conditions led to the closure of a 200-mile stretch of Interstate 90, which crosses much of the northern tier of the United States. The disruptions have rippled across the country. Roughly 16,000 flights had been canceled or delayed as of Thursday night, stranding travelers across the country.

A massive U.S. winter storm makes holiday travel dangerous : NPR --   On a day when millions of Americans were expected to be traveling for the winter holidays, a massive cold weather system marched across most of the contiguous United States, bringing record-breaking cold, gusty winds and dangerous precipitation to states from Montana to Alabama.  The National Weather Service estimated that much of the nation's 330 million residents were under some sort of winter weather alert on Thursday — a who's who of winter maladies from blizzards, snow squalls and ice storms to high winds, wind chill and hard freezes. In its Thursday forecast, the NWS warned of "record-breaking cold and life-threatening wind chills over the Great Plains to overspread the eastern half of the Nation by Friday."The cold front has moved so swiftly that temperatures across the Rocky Mountains plunged at record paces. On Wednesday night in Cheyenne, Wyo., the temperature dropped more than 30 degrees in just nine minutes.Governors in Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Wyoming declared states of emergency. In Indiana, Colorado and Missouri, governors activated the National Guard. In Texas, where a 2021 winter storm overwhelmed the state's power grid and ultimately killed more than 200 people, officials said they expected the grid would hold up as forecasts called for cold weather but little precipitation. Still, cities and counties throughout the state have opened warming centers and short-term emergency shelters to help residents stay out of the coldOn roads and highways from Wyoming to Missouri, wind and snow combined to lower visibility, making it dangerous to drive. Officials in multiple states, including Colorado and Illinois, urged drivers to avoid travel if at all possible.  Adding to the danger in low visibility conditions, Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon says large vehicles in his state have been obstructing the road, due to the cold weather."The biggest challenge is that many of the semitrucks and some of the pickups have gelled up. Diesel fuel at a very low temperature doesn't flow properly and so trucks end up stalling out or not being able to move very quickly, so there are a lot of those on the road," Gordon told All Things Considered on Thursday.

Immense winter storm places 60% of U.S. under winter weather warnings or advisories - one of the greatest extents ever recorded - A multi-day historic winter storm is producing widespread disruptions to large portions of the U.S., placing over 200 million people, or roughly 60% of the U.S. population, under some form of winter weather warnings or advisories – one of the greatest extents of winter weather warnings and advisories ever. “An immense winter storm that has brought a frigid blast to much of the CONUS along with impactful winter precipitation will persist in tracking across the eastern U.S. today,” NWS forecasters Oravec and Campbell noted.1 Winter weather hazards remain in effect from the Canadian border south to the Rio Grande, Gulf Coast and central Florida Peninsula while spanning from the Pacific Northwest to the Eastern Seaboard. The National Weather Service’s Watch Warning graphic depicts one of the greatest extents of winter weather warnings and advisories ever, the forecasters said. As of early Friday morning, December 23, over 240 million people in the United States are under some form of winter weather warning or advisory. This includes 181 million for wind chill warnings or advisories, over 11 million for blizzard warnings, 58 million for winter storm warnings, and over 500 thousand for ice storm warnings. Travel has already been affected by this storm along with reported power outages. This system will have increasingly widespread impacts to travel going into the busy holiday travel time late this week, along with the potential for power outages from the expected high winds, heavy snows, significant icing and overall increased power consumption in places. This powerful front allowed temperatures to plummet 17 – 28+ °C (30 to 50+ °F) over a short period for a vast portion of the country. Widespread record low maximum temperature values are possible today from the Lower Mississippi Valley, northeastward into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and stretching across large sections of the east from the Southeast, through the Southern to Central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. In addition to the very cold temperatures, high winds in the wake of the front will produce dangerous wind chill readings across nearly all of the central to eastern U.S. A developing low pressure system along the arctic front over the Midwest/Great Lakes region will produce widespread heavy snows from portions of the Midwest into the Great Lakes on today. Lakes Effect snowfall can be expected for the favored downwind locations of all of the Great Lakes on Saturday as the very cold arctic air streams across the Great Lakes. Blizzard warnings and Winter Storm warnings are currently in effect from the Great Lakes, Mid West, Middle to Upper Mississippi Valley and into the Northern Plains. Parts of the Pacific Northwest had icing late Thursday night that persisted into this morning as moisture from the Pacific falls into low level Arctic air currently entrenched across this area.

US winter storm will bring frostbite within minutes - BBC News - Plunging temperatures wreaking havoc across the US and Canada can lead to frostbite on bare skin in only five to 10 minutes, experts are warning. A powerful Arctic winter storm has placed more than 135 million people under weekend weather alerts ahead of the busiest travel days of the year. The alerts stretch from coast to coast and reach as far south as the US-Mexico border and Florida, the Sunshine State. Major airports have cancelled thousands of flights as the storm intensifies. The cold snap could bring the iciest Christmas in decades, say forecasters. The National Weather Service (NWS) said temperatures of -50F (-45C) and -70F were possible by the end of this week in some parts of the country. They warned that even in major metro areas, like the city of Des Moines, Iowa, frostbite will be a major danger. Frostbite is caused when blood flow is reduced, often to extremities like the nose and cheeks or fingers and toes. The lack of warm blood can lead to tissue freezing and rupturing, and in some cases, amputation. Meteorologists say the winter storm could become a "bomb cyclone" by Friday. Bomb cyclone is a term given to an explosive storm that intensifies rapidly, with its central air pressure dropping by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours. The Arctic air mass is projected to bring strong wind gusts and temperature of 15F (-9.4C) to El Paso, Texas, where newly arrived undocumented migrants are sleeping rough on city streets. The governor of New York state, Kathy Hochul, declared a state of emergency in anticipation of the storm. The governors of Kentucky, North Carolina, West Virginia, Georgia and Oklahoma have also declared states of emergency, while Wisconsin declared an "energy emergency". Ohio governor, Mike DeWine, called the weather a "unique and dangerous situation", particularly as people travel to be with loved ones over Christmas. Florida is projected to see its coldest Christmas in 30 years. The NWS has described it as a "once-in-a-generation" winter weather event, saying on Thursday that "life-threatening wind chills" will strike the east coast on Friday. Snow and powerful winds are expected to cause damage and power outages in the Midwest and Canada. The NWS warned more than 100 daily cold temperature records could be tied or broken over the next few days.

What is a seiche? Add this fascinating phenomenon to list of Christmas blizzard effects - - From rain to snow to driving winds and arctic cold, the Christmas-week blizzard has brought with it just about every kind of crummy weather you can imagine to a large swath of the U.S. As of Friday, you can add a seiche (pronounced saysh) to that list. Seiches happen when winds blow across a large, enclosed or nearly enclosed body of water. These winds push water from one end of the lake or sea to the other. This creates a large drop in water levels on one side of the body of water while levels increase on the opposite side. Winds push water from one side of Lake Erie to the other, creating a seiche. Once the winds relax, the water sloshes back to the end it came from, leading to a back-and-forth movement of water from one side of the lake or sea to the other. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Ocean Service, this sloshing motion continues for hours or even days.  FOX Weather winter weather specialist Tom Niziol said the ferocious winds from the week’s powerful storm created a seiche on Lake Erie on Friday that pushed water from Toledo, Ohio, on the west side of Lake Erie, to the eastern shores in Buffalo, New York."When you push the water at one end, it goes down, and the water at the other end goes up; that’s essentially what happened," Niziol said. Lake Erie is known for seiches, according to NOAA’s Ocean Service. A 22-foot seiche breached a sea wall in 1844 and killed 78 people.

Gigantic US winter storm leaves millions without power and cancels holiday plans - - Tens of millions of Americans were hit by frigid temperatures, high winds, blizzards, power outages and canceled holiday gatherings Friday from a gigantic winter storm that swept across the country. Forecasters said the scale of the weather pattern was nearly unprecedented in its scope, exposing than 200 million people – about 60% of the US population – to some sort of winter advisory or warning. The weather service’s map “depicts one of the greatest extents of winter weather warnings and advisories ever,” forecasters said. The coast-to-coast alerts extend as far south as Florida, with blizzard conditions expected in the Great Lakes region, up to 2in (5cm) of rain and a flash freeze on the east coast, and wind gusts of 60 miles (100 km) an hour on the Mexican border. Tens of thousands of homes have been left without power, and governors in at least 13 states have drawn up emergency response plans, including National Guard deployments, for the holiday weekend, with heavy snow and ice creating treacherous road conditions and some drivers stranded. Power outages left more than 1.4 million homes and businesses in the dark, according to the website PowerOutage. At the same time nearly 3,900 flights within, into or out of the US were canceled Friday, according to the tracking site FlightAware. The National Weather Service (NWS) said it expected a weather phenomenon known as a bomb cyclone – a rapidly strengthening storm that drops 24 millibars of pressure within 24 hours – to develop as it moves into the Great Lakes on Friday. The cyclone, with a pressure likely to match that of a category 2 hurricane, could bring snowfall of half an inch (1.3cm) an hour, the weather service said, leading to “dangerous, at times impossible, land and air travel” up to the holiday weekend. “The ongoing major winter storm will continue to produce areas of heavy snow, strong winds, and life-threatening wind chills through Saturday." The NWS said temperatures of -50F to -70F were possible over the weekend in some parts of the US, warning that even in big metropolitan areas such as Des Moines, Iowa, frostbite could become a significant danger. Ahead of one of the busiest travel periods of the year, the American Automobile Association (AAA) said more than 112 million people planned to travel 50 miles (80 km) or more from home between 23 December and 2 January. Even though fleets of snow plows and salt trucks have been deployed across the US, driving was extremely dangerous and even deadly. Kansas City police spokeswoman Donna Drake said a minivan driver died Thursday after loosing control on icy streets and overturning into a creek. In Kentucky three people died on the roads, Governor Andy Beshear announced on Friday morning. Beshear added that the state’s National Guard was delivering blankets to the Kentucky state police to distribute to stranded drivers on Interstate 71 and escorting some to shelters.

Vast Winter Storm Knocks Out Power in 23 States - An enormous winter storm is battering a vast swath of the US, knocking out power in more than 20 states, grounding 6,000 flights, closing schools, coating roads with ice and dashing hopes for the delivery of last-minute holiday gifts. More than 200 million people — around 60% of the country — were under some form of winter weather warning or advisory Friday morning, according to the National Weather Service. Heavy snow is set to blanket the Great Lakes region and parts of northern New York and New England, with bitter cold following a front that’s now pushing into Pennsylvania and the Appalachian Mountains. “It’s a pretty significant storm and is so widespread,” said Rich Otto, a forecaster at the US Weather Prediction Center. “This is a once in a 20- to 30-year type storm.” While it’s packing plenty of snow and frigid temperatures, the storm is mostly noteworthy for its size and speed. Snow, blizzard, freezes and flood warnings and advisories stretch across the central and eastern portions of the country, the northern fringe and the Deep South. It’s speedy march across the continent, meanwhile, is causing violent temperature swings. New York City was 55F (13C) at dawn. By 10 p.m., it’s forecast to be around 10. Dangerous cold temperatures & winds will continue to affect and spread eastward through the day from the Rockies, the south, Midwest, Great Lakes & advancing across the eastern seaboard. This graphic is the forecast apparent temperature at 1 PM EST today. https://t.co/VyWINDk3xP pic.twitter.com/trOqw6c6Lt — National Weather Service (@NWS) December 23, 2022 More than 900,000 customers are without power in 23 states, including Texas, New York, Georgia and hardest-hit Connecticut, where more than 100,000 homes and businesses are in the dark, according to PowerOutage.us. As of 7:30 a.m. 6,000 flights into, out of and around the US have been canceled, according to FlightAware, an airline tracking service, and Amtrak canceled some trains in the Midwest and northern New England. The storm has created “substantial disruptions” at FedEx Express hubs in Memphis and Indianapolis, potentially delaying holiday packages from arriving by Christmas, the shipping company said in a statement. New York has declared a statewide emergency and banned commercial traffic on the New York State Thruway from west of Rochester to the Pennsylvania border. Governor Kathy Hochul urged people who haven’t already taken to the roads to wait until Sunday to travel. Schools are closed in Buffalo, where up to 4 feet (1.2 meters) of snow may fall, and so are public offices in New Jersey. Weather warnings and advisories stretch from Washington state to Maine and south to the Gulf of Mexico, as an estimated 112.7 million people are set to travel at least 50 miles through Jan. 2, according to automotive group AAA. It’s also threatening to disrupt liquefied natural gas exports, which have been a lifeline for Europe as it battles a historic energy crisis. Extreme cold warnings covered western Canada, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada. Winter storm warnings spread across Ontario, Quebec and the Maritime provinces.Air Canada was warning of snow-related cancellations on December 23, 24 and 25 at the country’s biggest airport, Toronto Pearson International Airport, as well as in Montreal, Ottawa, Vancouver and Quebec City. “We continue to monitor the situation as it is evolving and we will be adapting to changes in weather conditions through the day as the storm evolves,” the airline said in an emailed statement. A number of flights were “pre-cancelled” on Friday “due to the weather, reduced airport capacity and other operational constraints.” 

Deadly winter storm continues to unleash mayhem: Latest updates - Two people died overnight in upstate New York and hundreds were stuck for hours on an interstate in Kentucky on Saturday morning before an evacuation. The incidents marked the latest emergencies prompted by a massive winter storm that disrupted travel and forced people into their homes nationwide ahead of Christmas. Two people died on Friday night in Cheektowaga, New York -- a Buffalo-area suburb -- when emergency medical personnel could not reach their homes due to the weather conditions, Poloncarz said. It was not immediately clear which health ailments had prompted the need for medical support. The incidents brought the number of deaths associated with the storm to at least eight. "This was a very, very bad night in our community," said Mark C. Poloncarz, Erie County Executive. Rescue crews are working to free people trapped in their vehicles, with at least 50 rescues conducted so far, Erie County officials said Saturday afternoon. A driving ban remains in place. At a press conference on Saturday, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said 73,000 homes in the region were without power, adding that she planned to ask the federal government for a declaration of emergency. "It is life-threatening what is going on as we speak in Buffalo," Hochul said at a press conference on Saturday. Hochul declared the storm a state emergency on Thursday and the following day deployed 54 members of the National Guard to Erie County in support of the ongoing emergency response. Meanwhile, on Saturday morning more than 700 vehicles were stranded for hours in Kentucky on a 14-mile stretch of interstate as emergency responders struggled to clear the roadway, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said. Later in the morning, most of the individuals had been evacuated, Beshear added. "Roadways are treacherous," Beshear said. "We are urging Kentuckians to stay home to ensure their safety and to help our first responders and our road crews so they can do their work."

Floods leave at least 4 people dead after more than 500 mm (19.7 inches) of rain in 24 hours, Thailand - Extremely heavy monsoon rains caused severe floods in southern Thailand over the past couple of days, leaving at least 4 people dead. The hardest hit were the provinces of Narathiwat, Nakhon Si Thammarat, and Songkhla. Parts of southern Thailand recorded more than 500 mm (19.7 inches) of rain on December 17 and 18, affecting more than 55 000 people in the provinces of Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Trang, Phatthalung, Satun, Songkhla, Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat.1 In 24 hours to December 18, Narathiwat recorded 545.4 mm (21.47 inches) of rain, Songkhla 401.5 mm (15.8 inches), and Pattani 310.5 mm (12.2 inches), according to data provided by the Thai Meteorological Department. 2 Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) said three people died in Narathiwat after being swept away by flood waters. Almost 30 000 households across 13 districts have been affected by flooding, including Sukhirin, Si Sakhon, Rueso, Ra-ngae, Chanae, Mueang Narathiwat, Cho-airong, Su-ngai Padi, Bacho, Waeng, Su-ngai Kolok, Tak Bai and Yi-ngo. In Songkhla, flooding struck 8 districts — Mueang Songkhla, Rattaphum, Khuan Niang, Hat Yai, Na Mom, Chana, Bang Klam and Ranot, impacting 11 616 households and leaving at least one person dead.

Pakistan's premier urges global aid for 20M flood victims (AP) — Pakistan’s prime minister on Wednesday urged the international community to give his country desperately needed aid to help 20 million flood victims survive the harsh winter, as the country struggles to cope with the humanitarian aftermath of vast floods earlier in the year. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif made the emotional appeal for help in arranging food, tents and other essential items for the millions of people the deadly floods had displaced ahead of an international donors conference in Geneva on Jan. 9, 2023. “Even today, 20 million victims of the floods need urgent humanitarian assistance,” Sharif said in televised comments during a visit to Kot Diji in the southern province of Sindh, an area widely devastated by the inundations. Cash-strapped Pakistan was already facing a serious financial crisis before the heavy monsoon rains hit in mid-June. The rains triggered unprecedented floods that at one point submerged a third of the country’s territory. Sharif said Pakistan was suffering from climate change-induced floods, despite having a negligible share in global carbon emissions. The U.N. in Geneva will co-host the “International Conference on Climate Resilient Pakistan” to raise much-needed funds for the victims of last summer’s wideranging floods that killed 1,739 people, destroyed 2.2 million homes and affected 33 million Pakistanis.

‘Everyone has to work so the family can survive’: floods in Nigeria force children out of schools Just before the heavy rains began, most schoolchildren were about to start the new term. Jonah Ovat’s three teenage sons were excited about going back to their secondary school in Obubra. Here in Cross River state, as in other parts of Nigeria, the rains that began in August brought large-scale flooding. The country’s two major rivers burst their banks and a national disaster was declared in four other states as floodwater drowned farms and destroyed crops worth millions of naira in Obubra. Now that the rains have subsided, Ovat, 55, was among the farmers whose land and crops were saturated. The family is attempting to rebuild but what has gone for ever, he says, is the boys’ schooldays. “There’s no more education for the boys because the time they should have spent in class they now use that time to work,” says Ovat. His sons have been labouring on a housing construction site since the start of September. “We don’t have a source of livelihood any more and that’s why everyone, including the children, has to work so that the family can survive.” The flooding has been the deadliest in the country’s history – at least 600 people killed and about 1.3 million forced from their homes. The water destroyed farms and small businesses, and inundated 150,000 hectares (370,000 acres) of fields, leaving close to 80,000 houses damaged (including 18,000 completely destroyed) and more than 320 roads and bridges impassable. In rural communities in the coastal Niger delta region, the area worst hit by the floods, hundreds of children have had to stop school because their parents need them to earn money to support their families as they try to recover from the disaster.

 Indo-Pacific Ocean warming increases the uncertainty in forecasting the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoonThe onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM), usually characterized by a simultaneous circulation–convection transition, marks the beginning of the East Asian summer rainy season. Thus, forecasting it at the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is a key concern. On the basis of previous findings, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal in winter is regarded as the most important predictor for SCSSM onset. Furthermore, research shows that western Pacific warming has advanced the SCSSM onset time since 1994. However, in the last decade, predictions of SCSSM onset based on the ENSO signal in winter often failed; plus, the onset of the SCSSM has been happening relatively later, despite the observed sea surface temperature in the equatorial western Pacific continuing to warm. Now, a joint research effort by Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Peking University, and the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, has revealed that the recent warming in the Indo-western Pacific Ocean region under global warming has increased the uncertainty in forecasting the onset of the SCSSM. Frequent occurrence of cold-tongue La Niña events and Northwest Indian Ocean warming have weakened the impacts of ENSO on SCSSM onset and delayed the start of the SCSSM. Additionally, they have favored more high-frequency, propagating moist convective activities, further increasing the uncertainty in predicting the onset of the SCSSM.

Severe turbulence hits flight HA35 from Phoenix to Honolulu, injuring 36 people, 11 seriously, Hawaii - Honolulu Airlines flight 35 from Phoenix to Hawaii encountered severe turbulence roughly 30 minutes before landing in Honolulu on December 18, 2022, causing some passengers to fly out of their seats. While the plane (Airbus A330) landed safely, 36 people were injured during the event, of which 11 seriously. Medical care was provided to passengers and crewmembers at the airport for minor injuries, while some were swiftly transported to local hospitals for further care, Hawaiian Airlines said. The airline hadn’t experienced ‘an incident of this nature in recent history’ … The flight was full, carrying 278 passengers and 10 crew members, Jon Snook, the airline’s chief operating officer, said during a news conference.1 Jim Ireland, director of Honolulu Emergency Medical Services, said 20 people were taken to hospitals, including 11 people deemed to be in serious condition. At least one person was reported to have been rendered unconscious but all patients were awake and talking when they arrived at the hospital, he said. Ireland said some patients suffered cuts, including to the head, as well as bumps and bruises while other were nauseous and vomited as a result of extreme motion. Snook later said they don’t know how many people on board were wearing seatbelts at the time of the turbulence when the seatbelt sign was illuminated. The determination of the seatbelts and other contributing factors relating to the incident will be part of a National Transportation Safety Board investigation. Snook said Hawaiian is cooperating with the NTSB investigation but did not have a timeline available.2 The turbulence was caused by a strong storm — known as Kona storm and Kona low — affecting Hawaii with a variety of weather hazards, including damaging high winds, potentially severe thunderstorms, heavy rain and flooding. The National Weather Service (NWS) office in Honolulu has issued multiple advisories including a high surf warning for portions of Hawaii, and a high wind warning and a flood watch for all the Hawaiian Islands. Numerous showers, heavy at times, and thunderstorms will continue through Monday as a Kona storm moves through the region, the office said.3 Bands of thunderstorms are moving through islands this evening (Sunday, December 18 (LT)) ahead of a vigorous cold front that will sweep through the state from northwest to southeast on Monday. The stronger thunderstorms may become severe through Monday afternoon (LT) with strong winds and the potential for hail. Strong southwesterly Kona winds will increase into Monday ahead of the cold front, with the strongest wind speeds forecast for communities along the downwind north and east slopes of mountain areas.

Freak wave hits South African beach, killing 3 people and injuring 17 - An unusually large wave hit a popular beach in the city of Durban, South Africa at around 17:00 LT on December 17, 2022, killing three people and injuring 17 others. More than 100 people were hit by the wave, first responders said. Three people drowned and 17 were taken to hospital in serious condition. The emergency services said that they were afraid the toll would rise after the “uncommon” event.

Study identifies new cause of melting Antarctic ice shelves - Researchers have discovered a process that can contribute to the melting of ice shelves in the Antarctic. An international team of scientists found that adjacent ice shelves play a role in causing instability in others downstream. The study, led by the University of East Anglia in the UK, also identified that a small ocean gyre—a system of circulating ocean currents—next to the Thwaites Ice Shelf can impact the amount of glacial-meltwater flowing beneath it. When that gyre is weaker, more warm water can access the areas beneath the ice shelf, causing it to melt. The Thwaites Ice Shelf is one of the biggest ice shelves in West Antarctica and buttresses the eastern side of the Thwaites Glacier, which has been retreating rapidly over the last 20 years and is the largest contributor to global sea-level rise among Antarctic glaciers. Using a unique dataset collected by sensors installed beneath the Thwaites Ice Shelf—which has also thinned and weakened significantly in recent decades—the researchers observed that the shallow layers of the ocean underneath it warmed considerably during the period from January 2020 to March 2021. Most of this warming was driven by waters with a high volume of glacial meltwater originating from the Pine Island Ice Shelf, further east, flowing into the area beneath the Thwaites Ice Shelf. The glacial meltwater mixes with saltwater when the ocean melts the base of ice shelves and can form a buoyant layer of water that is warmer than the surrounding waters. This lighter, relatively fresher and warmer water brings heat that melts the base of the Thwaites Ice Shelf.

Greenland's glaciers might be melting 100 times as fast as previously thoughtA computer model has been created by researchers at the Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences at The University of Texas at Austin that determines the rate at which Greenland's glacier fronts are melting. Published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the model is the first designed specifically for vertical glacier fronts—where ice meets the ocean at a sharp angle. It reflects recent observations of an Alaskan glacier front melting up to 100 times as fast as previously assumed. According to the researchers, the model can be used to improve both ocean and ice sheet models, which are crucial elements of any global climate model. "Up to now, glacier front melt models have been based on results from the Antarctic, where the system is quite different," said lead author Kirstin Schulz, a research associate in the Oden Institute's Computational Research in Ice and Ocean Systems Group (CRIOS). "By using our model in an ocean or climate model, we can get a much better idea of how vertical glacier fronts are melting." The melting of the Greenland ice sheet is a major predictor of sea level rise. This frozen stretch of glaciers is the second-largest on Earth and covers about 80% of the Nordic nation. If it melts entirely, as it did at the height of the Eemian interglacial period about 125,000 years ago, global sea levels could rise by 20 feet—or approximately 6.1 meters.

Meteor explodes over Zhejiang - broken windows and street lamps reported, meteorites found, China - A very bright fireball exploded over China’s Zhejiang Province around 10:00 UTC on December 15, 2022. Parts of the object survived the entry and were later recovered. Locals reported broken windows and street lamps. Many locals in Jinjhua witnessed the bright light flashing through the night sky, followed by a loud boom. “The meteorite did fall on our village. It smashed on the cement road at the door of a farmer’s house and smashed a pit that seems to be 6 – 7 cm [2.4 – 2.7 inches] deep. Fortunately, no one was hurt,” a local villager in Chengtou Village, Pujiang County, said.1 According to the villager, the piece of meteorite they saw is about the size of a goose egg, and is flat, black and dense. Another villager said she heard a loud noise that shook her windows, adding that some villagers reported their windows and several street lamps were broken. Several suspected meteorites have been handed over to local government departments for investigation and verification. According to the local media, one of the suspected meteorites is 8 cm (3.1 inches) long and weighs 3.2 kg (7 pounds).

Asteroid 2022 YO1 flew past Earth at just 0.07 LD - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2022 YO1 flew past Earth at a distance of 0.07 LD / 0.00018 AU (27 627 km / 17 167 miles) at 18:40 UTC on December 17, 2022. This is the 118th known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year and the 5th so far this month. It is also the 6th closest flyby of the year and the 39th closest on record (since 1901). Within the 50 closest approaches on record, 7 objects were discovered in 2022. Asteroid 2022 YO1 was first observed at Catalina Sky Survey on December 17 – the same day it made its closest approach to our planet. The object belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 2.7 and 5.9 m (8.8 – 19.3 feet).

Disproportionately large amounts of carbon accumulate at the bottom of deep-sea trenches, research shows The Earth's deep-sea trenches are some of the least explored places on Earth—as they are very difficult to access, are pitch black and the pressure is extremely high. Collecting samples and making reliable measurements of the processes that regulate the turnover of organic material in the deep is therefore difficult. In recent years, however, researchers from the Danish Center for Hadal Research (HADAL) at University of Southern Denmark have carried out a number of expeditions to deep-sea trenches. They have developed and applied sophisticated underwater robots, and they have demonstrated in several published studies that the steep deep-sea trenches accumulate various material including organic carbon that ends up at the bottom of the trenches. The bottom of a deep-sea trench can therefore be a veritable deposition hotspot for microbial life forms that converts the material. In three recent studies, the researchers report that hard-to-decompose organic carbon, including so-called black carbon, accumulates in large quantities at the bottom of the trenches. Black carbon consists of particles formed during burning of fossil fuels, wood and forests; activities that also lead to the release of CO2. The occurrence of black carbon is thus an indicator of the extent of fossil burning. The particles themselves can also contribute to warming, as they are carried by wind and weather to ice-covered areas, e.g. polar regions, where they settle on ice and snow, increasing heat absorption and thus the melting. "And now we see that large amounts of black carbon end up at the bottom of deep-sea trenches,"

CO2 levels in the Northern Hemisphere shape carbon uptake - Carbon dioxide (CO2), one of the major greenhouse gases, doesn't distribute evenly around the globe. Spatial variation of CO2 regulates the climate system and carbon cycle through a physiological effect and radiative forcing. However, there is still great uncertainty about how this non-uniform spatial distribution of atmospheric CO2 concentration affects the carbon cycle of the Northern Hemisphere. Recently, Dr. Peng Jing from Prof. Dan Li's research team from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, conducted a systematic study on how the spatial distribution of atmospheric CO2 concentration influences the carbon sink of terrestrial ecosystems. The researchers used the Earth System Model (ESM) to estimate carbon uptake in the mid–high latitudes from 2031 to 2060 under the SSP5-8.5 future emissions scenario. Results showed that in the high latitudes, non-uniform CO2 led to a reduction in Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) by -0.1 Pg C yr-1. This mainly resulted from a 1.5-fold greater increase in soil respiration than in net primary production (NPP). In the mid-latitudes, meanwhile, the decrease in carbon uptake was generally due to a two-fold greater decrease in NPP than soil respiration. In addition, the decrease in precipitation was closely correlated with local carbon uptake, which could explain this decrease in NPP. "We also found that, in East Asia, changes in atmospheric circulation induced by the non-uniform CO2 might have reduced the amount of large-scale precipitation by -9 mm yr-1," said Peng. "This reduction was the primary contributor (98%) to the decrease in overall precipitation, possibly strengthening the limitation of water on plant growth, which would cause a decline in NEP." Peng suggested that such spatial variation in CO2 concentrations should be assessed in ESM for possible impacts on local carbon uptake. This study was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

The oceans hold enormous carbon dioxide sequestration potential, making them an ally in the climate change fight -Enhancing the ocean's ability to remove CO2 particles from the atmosphere will be crucial in the fight against climate change, according to a new research paper. At present, around 25% of all CO2 emitted to the air is absorbed by the oceans. When these molecules enter the water they cause acidification, having a negative impact on marine environments, particularly for shell forming organisms such as crabs and shellfish that rely on fragile eco-systems for survival. But in a joint research paper published today (Dec. 21) in the journal, Joule, academics from Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh and the University of Hamburg, believe they have found a way to increase the amount of CO2 stored in the ocean without causing additional acidification. They have developed an engineering process to manufacture at scale a naturally occurring, although rare, hydrated carbonate mineral known as ikaite. Rich in calcium, this mineral, when exposed to sea water, dissolves and converts CO2 into a bicarbonate (HCO3) ions, which is a chemical compound that neutralizes acidity. The scientists say this could lead to significantly more CO2 being retained by the oceans for hundreds of thousands of years. Dr. Phil Renforth from the Research Centre for Carbon Solutions (RCCS) at Heriot-Watt University, proposed the idea and is leading a project to explore the feasibility of this approach. He explains, "In order to avoid dangerous climate change and to meet the UN's targets of reaching net zero by 2050, then it has become apparent that we must remove CO2 for our atmosphere. This is an enormous challenge but our idea is to utilize the world's oceans. "The oceans are a huge carbon dioxide reservoir and we want to enhance that sink providing it does not harm marine eco-systems and that it can be done safely and responsibly. What we put forward in this paper is a new method that overcomes the limitations of some of the previous proposals while maintaining the overall benefit to the ocean."

Climate goal of 1.5C is ‘gasping for breath’, says UN head -- The goal of limiting global heating to 1.5C is “gasping for breath”, the UN secretary general has said as he announced a “climate ambition summit” for September. António Guterres said the summit would challenge leaders of governments and businesses to come up with “new, tangible and credible climate action to accelerate the pace of change” and confront the “existential threat” of the climate crisis.“We are still moving in the wrong direction,” he said on Monday. “The 1.5C goal is gasping for breath. National climate plans are falling woefully short. And yet we are not retreating, we are fighting back.”He added: “The invitation [to the summit] is open. But the price of entry is non-negotiable – serious new climate action that will move the needle forward. It will be a no-nonsense summit. No exceptions. There will be no room for backsliders, greenwashers, blame-shifters or repackaging of announcements of previous years.”Guterres has become increasingly outspoken about the climate emergency, and the summit will put further pressure on countries to act.A series of reports in October laid bare how close the planet is to irreversible climate catastrophe. Carbon emissions must fall by half by 2030 to have an even chance of limiting global heating to the internationally agreed 1.5C limit. But emissions in 2022 will set a record high.Guterres pointed to some successes, including a “groundbreaking” agreement at the Cop27 summit in November on the issue of loss and damage, the now unavoidable impacts of climate-fuelled extreme weather and how to fund recovery in poorer countries.He also pointed to multibillion-dollar deals between rich countries and Indonesia, South Africa and Vietnam to phase out their use of coal, the most polluting fossil fuel. “We are fighting back to help emerging economies shift away from coal and accelerate the renewable energy revolution,” he said. Earlier this month, Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, said: “Renewables were already expanding quickly, but the global energy crisis has kicked them into an extraordinary new phase as countries seek to capitalise on their energy security benefits. The world is set to add as much renewable power in the next five years as it did in the previous 20 years.”

DeSantis signs bill seeking to stabilize insurance market (AP) — Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a sweeping property insurance bill on Friday. How much and when it will work to stabilize the stormy market is another question. One of the key goals of the legislation is to keep the claims process from ending up being settled in courtrooms, a problem that DeSantis said drives up legal costs for insurers. “This bill reins in the incentive to litigate,” DeSantis said before signing the bill in Fort Myers, an area devastated by Hurricane Ian in September. “This is going to make a huge, huge difference.” Florida has struggled to keep the insurance market healthy since 1992 when Hurricane Andrew flattened Homestead, wiped out some insurance carriers and left many remaining companies fearful to write or renew policies in Florida. Risks for carriers have also been growing as climate change increases the strength of hurricanes and the intensity of rainstorms.But beyond being prone to hurricanes, DeSantis said Florida needs to reduce legal costs for insurers. “Florida’s property insurance market was very good for lawyers. Very good. It’s made a lot of people very, very rich. But the question is, is that in your best interest to have a situation like that? And I don’t think it is,” DeSantis said.The bill new law will create a $1 billion reinsurance fund, put disincentives in place to prevent frivolous lawsuits and force some customers to leave a state-created insurer of last resort, Citizens Property insurance, for a private insurer, even if the policy costs more. It will also set more stringent deadlines throughout the claims process to try to insure homeowners don’t face coverage delays.

Congress Offers $1 Billion for Climate Aid, Falling Short of Biden’s Pledge - The New York Times — Congress has proposed $1 billion to help poor countries cope with climate change, a figure that falls significantly short of President Biden’s promise that the United States will spend $11.4 billion annually by 2024 to ensure developing nations can transition to clean energy and adapt to a warming planet. The money is part of a sprawling $1.7 trillion government spending package that lawmakers made public early Tuesday and are expected to vote on this week. Democrats had sought $3.4 billion for various global climate programs but Republicans quashed what they called “radical environmental and climate policies” in the spending bill. The Republicans are poised to assume control of the House in January, further dimming prospects for additional climate funds for at least the next two years. The setback for Mr. Biden comes a month after he appeared at the United Nations climate talks in Egypt, where he promised to deliver financial help to developing nations that are suffering from the impacts of a climate crisis for which they are ill-prepared and did little to cause. “The climate crisis is hitting hardest those countries and communities that have the fewest resources to respond and to recover,” Mr. Biden told the gathering.

Climate-focused agriculture bill hitches ride on omnibus - A bill to help farmers measure and verify greenhouse gas reductions was included in an omnibus spending package released early Tuesday morning. House Republican aides said the agreement on the “Growing Climate Solutions Act” takes into account the demands of the incoming chair of the House Agriculture Committee, Rep. Glenn Thompson of Pennsylvania, who’d sought what he called a more farmer-friendly approach to the measure’s proposed network of third-party conservation vendors. The climate bill, which would encourage the vendors to partner with farmers and the Department of Agriculture, was introduced in the House and Senate by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) and others in April 2021. Agriculture accounts for around 12 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, according to EPA, but can sequester carbon through improved soil practices. Braun’s bill,  S. 1251, passed the Senate by 92-8 about two months later, but Spanberger’s identical version fizzled in the House in the face of opposition from Thompson, as well as liberal Democrats who wanted a bolder response to climate change.  The House version, H.R. 2820, never received a vote in committee.  The newly negotiated version would create a registry of third-party vendors whom farmers could consult to help measure the carbon benefits of various farm practices, with the idea of supporting voluntary carbon markets. But it wouldn’t certify the consultants through the Agriculture Department as the introduced bills proposed. The initial bill, Thompson has said, was too focused on certifying vendors, who might benefit more financially from the bill than the farmers they served. In the slimmed-down measure, the registry would work more like a phone book, said aides familiar with the language who were granted anonymity to speak candidly. The bill also aims to direct benefits mainly to producers, partly by requiring the Agriculture secretary to ensure that farmers receive fair distribution of revenues from any sales of credits related to the program. Spanberger said in a statement that she’s glad the legislation is moving forward after pushing for it for several years. Aides said the bill was a priority for congressional leaders who wanted to show progress on climate change, including House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.).

How the $1.7T omnibus affects energy, from CCS to hydrogen -  - The year-end spending package released by Congress on Tuesday could deliver an influx of funding to several Department of Energy programs that may be pivotal for hitting the Biden administration’s climate targets.The omnibus bill — which would fund the government at $1.7 trillion for fiscal 2023 — would provide $46.5 billion to DOE to “fund programs in its primary mission areas of science, energy, environment, and national security,” Senate appropriators said in an explanatory statement on the package. That’s an increase of roughly $1.7 billion from fiscal 2022 for the department.The funds would support the department’s efforts to scale carbon capture and removal technologies, advance technologies aimed at boosting the resilience of the U.S. electricity system and reduce emissions from heavy industry like steel and concrete, among other initiatives.The bipartisan legislation could receive a final vote later this week before lawmakers adjourn for the year. It represents the last opportunity for Congress to dole out funds to energy-focused agencies prior to Republicans’ taking over the House in January.Under the plan, DOE’s Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management would receive $890 million, a $65 million increase from fiscal 2022. The agency’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy would get $3.5 billion, a $260 million uptick from last year (E&E Daily, Dec. 20).The Office of Electricity, which oversees policy for resilience and security of regional electric grids, would also get a boost. It would receive $350 million, a $73 million bump from last year. About $95 million of that pot would go toward energy storage technologies.In addition to money for DOE, the package would expand funding for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, an independent agency with oversight of electric power markets and natural gas pipelines. FERC would get $508.4 million, up from $466.4 million in fiscal 2022.Here are three ways the spending bill would affect energy:

  • Carbon capture and removal. The omnibus would provide $140 million for research, development and demonstration of carbon dioxide removal technologies across multiple offices — with DOE’s fossil office set to receive “not less than” half of that funding, according to the report from Senate appropriators.Additionally, the bill calls for the creation of a pilot procurement program for the purchase of CO2 that’s been removed from either the atmosphere or the upper hydrosphere.
  • Transmission and the power grid.  The proposed funding for FERC comes as the agency is weighing two rules that could promote development of long-distance transmission lines and speed up the process for connecting clean energy projects to the grid.
  • Innovation. Several other technologies that are a priority for the Biden administration’s climate plans would benefit from increases in the measure.DOE hydrogen programs, for instance, would get approximately $316 million in total, with $163 million and $113 million overseen by the renewable and fossil offices, respectively. For industrial decarbonization, DOE would receive $685 million under the plan.

'Carbon neutral' scores another victory in omnibus - -  A perennial battle in Congress over the environmental effects of burning wood for energy has tipped again toward the biomass industry. The $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill declares forest bioenergy carbon neutral and instructs federal agencies to adopt policies supporting that assumption, discarding efforts in both the House and Senate to avoid the terminology.The bill, poised to pass by Friday, calls on agencies to “establish clear and simple policies” for forest biomass as an energy source, including policies that “reflect the carbon neutrality of forest bioenergy and recognize biomass as a renewable energy source.” Industry groups say turning woody biomass into energy — such as by burning wood pellets — doesn’t add to net carbon emissions as long as forests aren’t converted to nonforest uses in the process. The bill language, which has appeared annually for several years, reflects that position. In recent years, some lawmakers have tried to push back against the assertion and to tweak the language, directing agencies to consider “the carbon benefits” of forest biomass as a renewable energy source. That proposed change appeared in both the House and Senate versions of the Interior-EPA spending bill going into negotiations on the omnibus. Scientists say the research on forest biomass defies simple declarations about what the carbon benefits are. Variables include how quickly forests grow back and how much carbon emissions occur in the harvesting, transporting and ultimately burning of wood for energy. While the release of carbon from burning woody biomass is assumed to be offset by carbon uptake during trees’ growth, the EIA said, “This is not to say that biomass energy is carbon‐neutral. Energy inputs are required in order to grow, fertilize, and harvest the feedstock and to produce and process the biomass into fuels.” Critics of the wood-to-energy industry said they were disappointed by the provision’s inclusion in the omnibus, which covers all federal agencies for the fiscal year that started Oct. 1. They attributed its endurance to Maine’s senior senator, Republican Susan Collins, an appropriator whose state is a timber industry leader.

What Congress’s spending bill includes for energy, sustainability - Congress has released a $1.7 trillion bill to fund the government for fiscal 2023.The agreement came as Democrats sought to get a bill across the finish line while they still held both houses of Congress — giving the GOP a fair amount of leverage in the negotiations.The mammoth funding package includes boosts to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and billions in natural disaster aid, among other provisions. A statement from the Senate Appropriations Committee said the package included $40.6 billion to help communities recover from “drought, hurricanes, flooding, wildfire, natural disasters and other matters.”That includes about $4 billion for farm aid; $520 million to help Western power districts buy fuel to make up for hydropower shortfalls; $2 billion for emergency wildfire funding; and about $1.6 billion to repair the damaged water system of Jackson, Miss., and address other impacts from Hurricanes Fiona and Ian. Another $5 billion will go to replenishing the disaster relief funds at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and $2.5 billion to repair damages on public lands, including the National Park system.  Much of the remaining funding pays for repairs to federal property essential to both plan for and respond to disasters. For example, $820 million will go to the National Science Foundation for both research and repairs while more than $500 million will go to NASA. Another $500 million will pay for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to repair and replace equipment used to track and respond to disasters like hurricanes. The measure includes just more than $10 billion for the Environmental Protection Agency — a $576 million increase over 2022. The allowance is nearly $2 billion less than the approximately $12 billion sought by the Biden administration. In their budget statement, Senate Republicans bragged about how they had rejected the president’s “radical environmental and climate policies” and kept overall nondefense spending increases to just 5.5 percent over last year. However, the EPA is also set to receive more than $100 billion from federal spending bills like the Inflation Reduction Act over the next few years, E&E News reported.The appropriations bill allocates more than $46 billion to the Energy Department. The majority of that money, about $31 billion, goes to military purposes, like the development of new nuclear weapons and cleanup of the environment around nuclear bases.The remaining $15.8 billion goes to civilian purposes, ranging from advanced nuclear energy to rural water projects. The bill also includes $8 billion for the Energy Department’s Department of Science — $300 million more than the president requested.In one key area, however, negotiators settled on less water and energy spending than the president had requested. They include about $3.5 billion for energy efficiency and renewable energy — more than half a billion less than the administration had requested. Meanwhile, nearly $900 million — $65 million more than last year — is included for research and development into new fossil fuels.

Omnibus package: 4 takeaways on energy and environment - - The Senate voted 70-25 Tuesday evening to take up the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill that includes modest increases for energy and environment agencies. While the Senate and House have days of work before final passage, the vote showed there is significant bipartisan support for the bill, even with conservative Republicans rallying for its defeat. A deal to expedite the approval process could emerge as soon as Wednesday, with lawmakers eager to leave the nation’s capital ahead of approaching winter weather that threatens to disrupt holiday plans. But before a final vote, conservative Republicans are demanding a host of amendment votes on the bill, including a measure from Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) to remove all earmarks from the package. Following the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the Inflation Reduction Act, the omnibus is part of the Democrats’ energy and environment agenda, even if they didn’t get the spending increases and legislative deals they were hoping for. Here are four takeaways:

  • 1. Swimming in earmarks. The omnibus is the second fiscal 2023 package with congressionally directed spending, or earmarks, since lawmakers revived the practice. The package includes more than 1,000 specific earmarks across energy and environment agencies.  A significant number of earmarks will fund EPA drinking water projects. Lawmakers approved 780 EPA earmarks, 193 Army Corps of Engineers earmarks, 152 Department of Energy earmarks and 132 Interior Department earmarks. The Department of Energy received 152 and the Department of Interior programs saw 134. Some of the largest earmarks include Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran’s request for $10 million for Kansas City Board of Utilities to replace aging water lines. Moran is a member of the Senate Defense Appropriations Subcommittee.
  • 2. Landmark bill underfunded.  When Congress passed the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 earlier this summer, supporters heralded the legislation for its renewed investment in the nation’s research and development enterprise.But the omnibus released this week means Congress will not live up to the bill’s expectations — at least not yet. Even though authorized programs would see big jumps, the spending doesn’t match the law’s ambition.
  • 3. Defense Production Act money missing. The omnibus snubbed an executive order from President Joe Biden earlier this year designed to boost domestic renewable energy manufacturing. In a June executive order, Biden provided DOE with Defense Production Act authorities to accelerate domestic production of solar, electric grid components, heat pumps, insulation and fuel cells. The action was supposed to be a compromise after Biden delayed possible new tariffs on imported solar panels, angering domestic solar manufacturers.
  • 4. Outdoor recreation next year? Advocates had been banking on the inclusion of a major outdoor recreation package in the omnibus championed by Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and ranking member John Barrasso (R-Wyo.).S. 3266, the “America’s Outdoor Recreation Act,” would enhance existing recreation sites on federal lands, foster public-private partnerships to modernize campgrounds and provide technical and financial assistants to businesses in recreation area-adjacent communities.Ultimately, a narrow lands package was approved for inclusion — without “America’s Outdoor Recreation Act” (E&E Daily, Dec. 20).

U.S. Postal Service to transform delivery fleet with 66,000 electric vehicles by 2028 -The U.S. Postal Service said Tuesday that it intends to purchase at least 66,000 electric delivery vehicles as part of a push to transform its delivery fleet. The electric vehicles would amount to more than half the 106,000 vehicles it plans to acquire for delivery between now and 2028. The new vehicles will start to replace its aging fleet of 220,000 vehicles, the Postal Service said in a press release. The Postal Service has faced public pressure from environmental campaigns to electrify its fleet. In April, environmental groups filed a lawsuit against the USPS for its failure to conduct an adequate environmental analysis before deciding to replace its vehicle fleet with more “fuel-guzzling combustion mail trucks,” according to a press release from the Sierra Club. “Instead of receiving pollution with their daily mail packages, communities across the U.S. will get the relief of cleaner air,” Katherine García, director of the Sierra Club’s Clean Transportation for All campaign, said in a statement on Tuesday. The Sierra Club was one of the groups pressuring the USPS to go electric. The USPS said Tuesday its investment is expected to reach $9.6 billion, about a third of which comes from the Inflation Reduction Act. The funding will help the Postal Service build what has the potential to be one of the largest electric vehicle fleets in the country, Postmaster General Louis DeJoy said in a statement. “We have a statutory requirement to deliver mail and packages to 163 million addresses six days per week and to cover our costs in doing so — that is our mission,” DeJoy said. “As I have said in the past, if we can achieve those objectives in a more environmentally responsible way, we will do so.”

Electric Cars Are Taking Off, but When Will Battery Recycling Follow? - - Sales of electric cars and trucks are taking off, and the auto and battery industries are investing billions of dollars to upgrade and build factories. These cars could help address climate change, but batteries pose their own problems. Raw materials can be hard to mine, are often found in countries with poor human rights records and require processing that leaves behind noxious waste. Fortunately, those battery ingredients are also highly reusable. And now a race is on to collect and recycle used lithium-ion batteries. Venture capitalists, automakers and energy companies are pouring money into dozens of start-up recycling companies in North America and Europe. But for all the optimism, this new business faces a daunting challenge: Few batteries will be available to recycle for a decade or more. Tesla, which dominates the electric vehicle business, began selling cars in 2008 and until 2017 sold fewer than 100,000 cars a year. There are other sources to recycle today, including hybrids and consumer electronics, but the supply is limited and collection can be challenging. That has left recycling companies in a difficult position. They need to invest in factories, machinery and workers or risk losing ground to competitors. But if they invest too quickly, they could run out of money before lots of aging batteries arrive at their loading docks. “You have people that are just burning through money, because you don’t have the feed stock to be able to make the material to sell,” said Eric Frederickson, the managing director of operations for Call2Recycle, a nonprofit program that helps recyclers find old batteries. The companies also have to figure out how to find, collect and dismantle batteries. They have to work with many dismantlers, scrap yards and nonprofit groups. And because batteries are prone to fires and packaged and built differently from model to model, taking them apart can be complicated and dangerous.

Senate passes bill to increase EV battery recycling as part of defense budget - The Strategic EV Management Act, meant to expand the reuse and recycling of end-of-life electric vehicle batteries in federal fleet vehicles, passed the U.S. Senate last Wednesday as part of the annual defense budget. The defense bill now awaits President Joe Biden’s signature. The EV bill, which previously passed the Senate in September as a standalone bill, is now included in its entirety in the Fiscal Year 2023 National Defense Authorization Act.The bill calls for federal agencies such as the General Services Administration and the Office of Management and Budget to collaborate with the U.S. EPA, manufacturers and recyclers to create a strategic plan for reusing and recycling EV batteries. It also encourages collaboration with scientists, labs and startups working on such projects. Additionally, the bill calls for a report on how costs to operate and maintain electric vehicles in the federal fleet compare with costs for vehicles with combustion engines.The updated version of the bill also calls for “guidelines for disposing electric vehicle batteries that cannot be reused or recycled.” Bill sponsor Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, applauded the bill’s inclusion in the larger defense bill. “The NDAA is one of the most important pieces of legislation Congress passes,” he said in a statement.Romney, along with fellow bill sponsors, sees a strong EV recycling program as a key way to keep valuable minerals needed for battery production, such as cobalt and lithium, within the U.S. Including the EV bill in the defense budget will help “decrease our dependence on foreign adversaries like China when it comes to our critical mineral supply,” he said.

Illinois coalition demands clean trucks -- When the Crawford coal plant in Chicago’s Little Village neighborhood closed in 2012, residents hailed it as a victory for public health and environmental justice. But now a Target warehouse sits in place of the coal plant, with a constant stream of diesel trucks posing a new health threat and source of greenhouse gas emissions. The neighborhood is just one example, local leaders and statewide advocates say, of why Illinois should adopt rules and programs moving toward electrification of medium- and heavy-duty trucks — starting with the Advanced Clean Trucks rule pioneered by California and now on the books in seven coastal states.  “Because of past decisions going back 170 years, we are without a doubt the freight and rail hub of North America — these freight facilities aren’t going anywhere,” said José Acosta, senior transportation policy analyst for the Little Village Environmental Justice Organization. LVEJO led the fight to close the city’s two coal plants and fought against the construction of the warehouse on the coal plant site.  “If that’s the case, how do we mitigate all the impacts of it?” Acosta added. “The most pressing impact is the air pollution impact, the threat of PM2.5” — fine particulate matter — “nitrogen oxide and other things that have an impact on community health. That’s why it’s so important to electrify fleets.”  LVEJO is among the coalition of environmental, community and labor groups called NET-Z demanding the state adopt the Advanced Clean Trucks rule, or ACT. The rule would mandate that electric or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles make up an increasing percentage of heavy- and medium-duty trucks sold in the state. With different benchmarks for different types of vehicles, the rule would mean almost all new trucks and delivery vans would be zero-emissions by 2040. Given fleet turnover, experts estimate this means almost all trucks on the roads would be zero-emissions by 2050.  The coalition is also calling for the adoption of the Heavy-Duty Omnibus Rule, which would mandate stricter nitrogen oxide emissions controls on new fossil fuel trucks. Meanwhile, a bill introduced in the state legislature would ask the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency to offer $200,000 vouchers for the purchase of class 7 or 8 large trucks, provided a diesel truck is scrapped in return.

Biden unveils stricter emissions rules for heavy-duty trucks - The Biden administration on Tuesday announced stricter standards on smog-forming emissions from trucks, vans and buses starting in the 2027 model year, the first of several federal actions aimed at limiting vehicle pollution. Medium- and heavy-duty trucks represent only about 4% of vehicles in the U.S., but due to their larger size and greater travel distances, the vehicles consume more than 25% of total highway fuel and comprise nearly 30% of highway carbon emissions, according to the Department of Energy. The new rules from the Environmental Protection Agency are the first update to clean air standards for heavy-duty vehicles in more than 20 years. The standards by 2045 will result in a 48% reduction in nitrogen oxide, a 28% reduction in benzene, a 23% reduction in volatile organic compounds and an 18% reduction in carbon monoxide. All of these emissions can cause health problems for people. The new rules will also help fight climate change, even though they aren’t likely to have any effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Nitrogen oxide is roughly 300 times as potent as carbon dioxide at warming the atmosphere and accounts for about 7% of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from human activity, according to the EPA. The agency estimates the standards will result in up to 2,900 fewer premature deaths, 6,700 fewer hospital admissions and emergency department visits, 18,000 fewer cases of childhood asthma and $29 billion in annual net benefits by 2045. Michael Regan, the administrator of the EPA, said the actions would protect the health of 72 million people who live near truck freight routes in the U.S., including the most threatened populations in historically polluted communities. “These rigorous standards, coupled with historic investments from the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, will accelerate President Biden’s ambitious agenda to overhaul the nation’s trucking fleet, deliver cleaner air, and protect people and the planet,” Regan said in a statement.

Va. project would be first to serve customers local biogas -- When the Western Virginia Water Authority began exploring an upgrade to the guts of its wastewater treatment plant in 2019, engineers knew it would entail managing extra heat-trapping methane emissions. Aware that flaring even more excess emissions is an environmental no-no, they contacted a fellow utility, Roanoke Gas Company, with a proposition. Now, a joint utility proposal to harvest that “homegrown” biogas is wending its way through the state regulatory review process. It calls for capturing and treating the byproduct so it can be fed into a natural gas pipeline serving about 12,000 customers including a hospital, a medical school and several large companies. If the State Corporation Commission (SCC) approves the plan before an end-of-January deadline, it will be the initial such endeavor imagined when the Virginia General Assembly passed energy legislation earlier this year authorizing innovative gas capture. Overall, the company figured its new $7.7 million gas-conditioning facility would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by an estimated 13,700 metric tons. Constructing a digester gas conditioning system on the water authority’s property will allow Roanoke Gas to convert a product that is about 64% methane and 35% carbon dioxide to one that is 99% methane. Initially, the system is configured to handle up to 280 standard cubic feet of digester gas per minute. That adds up to enough gas to fully heat roughly 300 homes on a cold day. After that, Roanoke Gas has an option to invest more capital and proceed with a full buildout, which could handle up to 400 standard cubic feet of gas per minute, Oliver said. By blending the locally conditioned gas with what’s piped in from the Chicago region and the Gulf of Mexico, Oliver said it can save residential customers 4 cents a month on their utility bills in 2023. Large industrial customers could save about $7.25 monthly. Oliver knows the environmental community is leery about recognizing the climate benefits of what’s known as renewable natural gas. However, he said his company is intent on reining in emissions of fugitive methane because it’s such a potent heat-trapping gas. Indeed, the lawyers representing Appalachian Voices, the nonprofit environmental respondent challenging the project, urged the commission to deny the application in a response filed on Dec. 8.

With new tax credits, clean energy beats gas plants almost every time One of the most consequential choices facing the U.S. power sector is whether or not to keep building new fossil-fueled plants. And the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act last August irrevocably altered the economics of this choice. Having displaced coal as the workhorse of the grid in the last couple of decades, fossil gas delivers more electricity in the U.S. than any other source. New gas-fired power plants remain the default choice when utilities need to know they’ll have power on demand — something that wind and solar cannot promise on their own. But analysts and climate advocates argue that portfolios of complementary clean energy tools can play a similarly reliable role for the grid. Instead of one large gas plant, mixtures of solar, wind, energy efficiency, flexible consumer demand and energy storage across a given region can deliver power throughout the day and night, without greenhouse gas emissions. Going forward, the economics of these portfolios will almost always be a better deal than building more gas plants, thanks to a bunch of new federal incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act, according to a recently published analysis by climate think tank RMI. (Canary Media is an independent affiliate of RMI.) “The math on the next right investment has changed,” said Lauren Shwisberg, a principal at RMI’s carbon-free electricity program and author of the new analysis. ​“Decisions that are based on pre-IRA assumptions may no longer be what provides the greatest savings for customers.” The landmark climate legislation institutes a decade of clean energy tax credits tied to policy goals including labor standards, stronger domestic supply chains and investment in communities that are affected by the energy transition. If clean energy plants access the maximum tax credits allowed, they’ll outcompete 99 percent of the gas plants slated for construction between now and 2035, according to RMI’s analysis. That’s a stunning fall in gas power’s cost-competitiveness. But a 99 percent win rate for clean energy may be a tad optimistic: To get the biggest possible tax credits (a 50 percent credit on the upfront investment, or $31.2 per megawatt-hour produced), projects need to stack bonuses by using domestically produced materials and building in ​“energy communities” that used to host coal plants, for instance. The IRS is still writing the fine print on how to qualify for those, so it’s too early to know how feasible it is for developers to layer all the necessary requirements.

Climate law boost for renewables hits barrier on tribal lands - The climate law enacted this year lifted a long-standing financial barrier for Native American tribes seeking to build and own their own clean energy projects. But the boost for energy development in Indian Country has an infrastructure problem: It could be many years before tribes can connect solar and wind projects to the power grid. The Inflation Reduction Act allows tribes and other tax-exempt entities like electric cooperatives for the first time to receive direct payment tax credits for wind, solar and other clean energy technologies. That means they can essentially reap the same federal tax credits for large energy projects afforded to for-profit utilities and private developers for over a decade.  “Since the IRA was passed, we have finally tipped the scale in favor of tribes when it comes to energy,” said Chéri Smith, founder and CEO of Indigenized Energy Initiative, a nonprofit that works with tribes on renewable energy projects. Tribes could play a significant role in helping slash greenhouse gas emissions nationally. Tribal lands cover about 5.8 percent of the country, but comprise 6.5 percent of the nation’s potential for large-scale clean energy, according to estimates from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. All told, tribal lands in the contiguous United States have the potential to supply over 9 gigawatts of solar, wind, geothermal and other renewable energy resources, according to NREL, just less than one-third of the wind, solar and battery storage projects that came online nationwide in 2021. Yet as more tribes explore investments in renewable energy, developers say that their projects are increasingly being held up by limited access to power lines and long wait times to link their projects to the grid. If left unaddressed, the delays could blunt the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act for tribes at a time when the Biden administration has promised to include them and other disadvantaged groups in the clean energy transition, developers said. “The financial picture for us to get to that next asset is right in front of us now — it’s no longer the limiting factor,” said Brian Lipscomb, CEO of Energy Keepers Inc., an independent energy developer owned by the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes in Montana. “So what becomes the limiting factor is transmission and interconnection, and the interconnection queue.” Historically, most energy projects located on tribal lands have been developed by nontribal entities that obtained rights of way from the Department of the Interior,  Most Native American reservations are held in trust by the federal government, and electric service may be provided by tribal-owned utilities, nontribal electric cooperatives or investor-owned utilities that operate nearby. Until the 21st century, developers also did not need the approval of tribes to build energy facilities on their land as long as they had won a right of way from Interior. “In many cases, particularly where the rights of way were granted for 50 years with minimal payment, the tribes become resentful of being taken advantage of.” That history is part of why some tribes are now interested in developing and owning energy projects themselves, which requires not only proposing viable projects and financing them, but also eventually connecting them to the power grid. Complaints about the so-called interconnection process for new energy projects are widespread among renewable energy developers. But some tribes say they’re at a particular disadvantage. Native American reservations may be located in remote areas that have limited existing transmission infrastructure, Compared to for-profit utilities and established developers, corporations owned by tribes also tend to have less capital to cover the costs of grid upgrades needed to accommodate their projects,

This little-known bottleneck is blocking clean energy for millions - - To achieve America’s goal of shifting 80 percent of the country’s electricity away from fossil fuels by the end of the decade, there will have to be a massive transformation. That means solar farms peppering the landscape from California to New York; offshore wind turbines standing high above the waves off the coast of New Jersey; nuclear power plants emitting steam in rural areas. Together, these projects would have to add around 950 gigawatts of new clean energy and 225 gigawatts of energy storage to the grid. And right now, projects accounting for at least 930 gigawatts of clean energy capacity and 420 gigawatts of storage are waiting to be built across the country. They just can’t get connected to the grid. These roadblocks — known as “interconnection queues” — are slowing America’s energy transition and the country’s ability to respond to climate change.  . “If we don’t make changes, we’re not going to meet state and federal targets for climate change.” To understand the lines blocking the U.S.’s progress on climate change, you first have to understand a bit about how the electricity grid works. It’s easiest to think about the grid — which carries electrons — like the country’s roads carrying cars. When an energy developer wants to build a new power plant, they have to submit an application to see how adding that facility will affect the grid — sort of like trying to build an on-ramp onto a big interstate highway, according to Joe Rand, a senior engineering associate at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Regional authorities have to check to make sure that the highway can accommodate a new on-ramp without causing traffic pileups. In the same way that an authority might ask the road-builder to pay for the construction of the on-ramp — or, if the highway is really congested already, to pay to add an extra lane — regional authorities ask energy developers to pay to connect their solar or wind farms to the grid. Getting the okay to connect has gotten harder and harder. According to Rand’s research, between 2000 and 2010 it took around two years for a project to make it through the queue. Now, it’s taking almost twice as long. At the end of 2021, there were 8,100 projects sitting in line, waiting for permission to get connected. Together, they represent more than the combined power capacity of all U.S. electricity plants. And 93 percent of those projects are solar, wind, or battery storage. One transmission authority, PJM — which covers Pennsylvania, West Virginia, D.C., and other areas on the Eastern Seaboard — accounts for nearly a third of the delays. Rand, the researcher at Berkeley Laboratory, says that not all projects that enter the queue ultimately get built. Developers may decide to focus on other projects or try to get permits later on. But, he added, the projects that withdraw from the queue “have drastically higher interconnection costs” — indicating that some wind and solar farms may not be getting built because it costs so much to connect to the grid. In one study, Rand and a team of researchers from Berkeley Lab found that connecting a wind farm to the grid between 2019 and 2021 in areas of the Midwest and Canada cost about double what it did from 2000 to 2018.

Climate solutions for Great Lakes power grid - As the Great Lakes region experiences warmer and wetter weather, advocates say the time is now to prepare the electric grid for climate change. Proposed federal rules could jumpstart a formal process for doing that — if regulators decide to finalize them next year. Extreme heat and cold are already stressing the grid. A three-day heat wave across much of the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic regions in September 2013 was one of four extreme heat or cold events since 2011 in which grid operators required transmission companies to cut off power to thousands of customers to avoid uncontrolled blackouts. Other events include the February 2021 cold snap that froze power plants and wind farms in Texas, leading to widespread outages and a death toll of at least 246 people. Temperature extremes can disrupt all types of electricity generation sources — including fossil fuel plants, nuclear plants, wind farms, and solar panels — while at the same time increasing the demand for power to heat and cool buildings. “Extreme heat and cold weather events are occurring with greater frequency, and are projected to occur with even greater frequency in the future,” the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission wrote in a June 16 rulemaking notice addressing climate change and grid planning. The Great Lakes region, in particular, is expected to see some of the country’s largest increases in electricity demand from air conditioning over the next few decades, according to one study.  “In many parts of North America, peak electricity demand is increasing, and forecasting demand and its response to extreme temperatures and abnormal weather is increasingly uncertain,” the North American Electric Reliability Corporation said in a Dec. 15 report. The quasi-governmental organization sets reliability standards for the grid.Grid operators are continually planning for the future and say they are ready to respond to changing weather and usage trends from the next few minutes to 15 years ahead. “If things like air conditioning load do continue to climb … we’re in a position to recognize it,” said Ken Seiler, vice president of planning for PJM Interconnection, whose territory covers all or parts of 13 states, including Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.Critics, though, say grid operators aren’t asking the right questions. “We don’t know if we are prepared,” said Michael Jacobs, an energy analyst with the Union of Concerned Scientists. The current methods used by grid operators underestimate the range of future extreme weather, he and other advocates say.

U.S. Grid-Scale Energy Storage Market Hits New High - The previous quarter displayed strong grid-scale and residential storage demand in the U.S., despite persistent supply chain challenges, Wood Mackenzie said. The U.S. energy storage market grid-scale segment installed a record 4,733 MWh in the third quarter of 2022, surpassing the previous quarterly high of 4,598 MWh in the first quarter of 2021, according to Woodmac’s new report. On a single charge, this amount of battery storage could power over 150,000 U.S. homes for a day. According to the American Clean Power Association and Wood Mackenzie’s latest U.S. Energy Storage Monitor report, grid-scale storage deployments relied heavily on California and Texas, which accounted for 96% of total installed capacity in the third quarter. “Demand in the grid-scale and residential storage segments continues to increase, despite rising costs and lingering supply chain challenges,” said Vanessa Witte, senior analyst with Wood Mackenzie’s energy storage team. “Installed capacity is expected to more than double next year, driven by new grid-scale project announcements and increased residential and non-residential volumes in CA due to the introduction of a community solar program and NEM 3.0.” According to the report, the total forecast volume between 2022-2026 across all segments increased by 109% quarter-over-quarter, and in this timeframe the U.S. storage market will install almost 65GW total, with grid-scale installations accounting for 84% of that capacity. “Demand for energy storage is at an all-time high, driven by sustained higher energy prices, state decarbonization mandates, and Inflation Reduction Act incentives,” said Jason Burwen, Vice President of Energy Storage at the American Clean Power Association. “California’s reliance on energy storage to meet record peak demand this September shows why it’s absolutely critical that policymakers and grid operators remove barriers to supply to ensure reliability. The rapid increase in grid-scale storage capacity requesting to connect to the grid demonstrates that the pace of U.S. industry growth is increasingly dependent on the availability of transmission and timely grid access.” Residential storage had another record quarter, with 400MWh installed, surpassing the previous quarterly record of 375MWh in Q2 2022. California, Puerto Rico, Texas, and Hawaii were leaders in Q3 for residential instalments. Wood Mackenzie projects that this segment will climb to 2.2 GW in 2026. Community, commercial, and industrial storage deployments underwhelm for the second quarter in a row, with only 56.6 MWh installed in Q3. However, all segments are anticipated to steadily grow over the long-term forecast, bolstered by the strong demand from residential and grid-scale.

US Grid Faces a New Threat as Regulators Balk at Higher Bills – As Americans grapple with surging home energy bills, state regulators are starting to take a harder line on utilities proposing to hike household electricity rates. Regulators in at least three Midwest states are already blocking power companies from taking on costly grid upgrades that rely on consumer rate hikes to foot the bill. Instead, the utilities are being told to delay less urgent projects and absorb some costs they usually pass on to customers. As more and more households struggle with stubbornly high inflation, analysts warn that such regulatory pushback could spread across the country.

Utilities sound alarm over distribution transformer shortage as procurement times surpass 1 year and costs triple - A shortage of distribution system transformers is depleting replacement equipment stockpiles and delaying or canceling some electrification projects, the electric utility sector warned federal lawmakers in a November letter. The industry’s ability to quickly restore power following storms is also at risk, they said. A group of lawmakers led by Rep. Sean Casten, D-Ill., is urging the government to authorize $2.1 billion in disaster supplemental funding to address the shortage of electrical transformers and complementary grid security technologies through the Defense Production Act. The delays are “ubiquitous, across the country,” Joy Ditto, president and CEO of the American Public Power Association, said in an interview. Procurement times for a new distribution level transformer have risen to more than a year, up from about about three months in 2020, and average costs have doubled or tripled, she said.The shortage of distribution system transformers is a relatively new issue and is separate from a longer-standing shortage of large bulk power system transformers. Both, however, are a threat to grid security and are driving up costs, say experts. The cost of large transformers is up 20% to 50% since 2020, said Grid Assurance CEO Dave Rupert. The company stockpiles bulk power system equipment for subscribers, or for sale to nonsubscribers. Time to procure equipment has grown to 20 to 39 months from 16 to 20 months a year ago, Rupert said. “We’ve known for a while that large power transformer manufacturing has gone offshore,” Ditto said. “It’s a much more complex piece of equipment, much larger, much more difficult to transport,” and with varying cybersecurity concerns due to smart components. The shortage of distribution-level transformers caught the utility industry by surprise, Ditto said. “There had been a relatively robust manufacturing sector here, and because the lead times had for many, many years averaged about three months we had not focused as much on the need to shore up that supply chain piece,” Ditto said. While the average price for distribition transformers may have doubled or tripled, Ditto also noted that outliers can be much higher. A small utility in Tennessee paying $2,400 for a transformer now faces a $24,000 bill, she said.

In the Southeast, power company money flows to news sites that attack critics -Six news outlets in Florida and Alabama have received about $900,000 from electricity industry consultants, their clients and associated entities, the first story in a multi-part joint investigation by NPR and Floodlight finds. This reporting – based upon hundreds of internal documents and public records, more than three dozen interviews, a review of social media postings, and an original analysis of coverage– found that the sites pushed positive coverage that benefited the power company clients and attacked their critics. The records show a complex web of financial links between each of the news sites and the consulting firm Matrix LLC and its Alabama power and Florida Power and Light clients, dating between 2013 and 2020. The outlets involved are are Alabama Political Reporter, Yellowhammer News, Alabamatoday.com, The Capitolist. Floridapolitics.com, and Sunshine State News (now defunct) A tally of the five still-functioning sites show they have a collective audience of 1.3 million unique monthly visitors. Their readers have been unknowingly immersing themselves in an echo chamber of questionable coverage for years. Matrix shrewdly took advantage of the near collapse of the local newspaper industry and a concurrent plunge in trust in media in propelling its clients' interests. "The reduction in just the size of the press corps covering state government has created a vacuum that I think tends to be filled by people who have agendas beyond serving the public interest," says former Miami Herald executive editor Tom Fiedler. In Alabama and Florida, Matrix sought to ensure much coverage was secretly driven by the priorities of its clients. Payments flowed as the utilities fought efforts to incorporate more clean energy in electric grids — a fight they are still waging. Alabama-based Matrix recently made headlines for surveillance of a power company CEO and a journalist who wrote critically about Florida Power & Light's business plans. Matrix has also been accused of seeking to influence ballot initiatives on clean energy and offering a lucrative job to a public official in Jacksonville to induce him to resign.

Global coal use is on course to hit all-time high this year, IEA says - Global coal use is on course to increase by 1.2% to hit a record high this year, according to a report from the International Energy Agency. It comes at a time of significant volatility and uncertainty in global energy markets, with the IEA stating that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022 had “sharply altered the dynamics of coal trade, price levels, and supply and demand patterns in 2022.” “Coal markets have been shaken severely in 2022, with traditional trade flows disrupted, prices soaring and demand set to grow by 1.2%, reaching an all-time high and surpassing 8 billion metric tons for the first time,” the IEA said in its Coal 2022 report, published Dec. 16. The price of fossil fuels saw a substantial jump this year, the agency said, “with natural gas showing the sharpest increase.” “This has prompted a wave of fuel switching away from gas, pushing up demand for more price competitive options, including coal in some regions,” it added. Despite the increase in coal demand, the picture is a complex one. The IEA noted that “higher coal prices, strong deployment of renewables and energy efficiency, and weakening global economic growth are tempering the increase in overall coal demand this year.” It said that coal use in electricity generation was set to rise by a little over 2% this year. Coal usage in industry is actually slated to fall by more than 1%, with this decline attributed to lower steel and iron production. “The world is close to a peak in fossil fuel use, with coal set to be the first to decline, but we are not there yet,” IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori said in a statement. “Coal demand is stubborn and will likely reach an all-time high this year, pushing up global emissions.” “At the same time, there are many signs that today’s crisis is accelerating the deployment of renewables, energy efficiency and heat pumps — and this will moderate coal demand in the coming years,” he added. Government policies would be “key to ensuring a secure and sustainable path forward,” he said.

The world’s coal consumption is set to reach a new high in 2022 as the energy crisis shakes markets - - Global coal demand is set to increase only marginally in 2022 but enough to push it to an all-time high amid the energy crisis, according to a new IEA report, which forecasts the world’s coal consumption will remain at similar levels in the following years in the absence of stronger efforts to accelerate the transition to clean energy. Global coal use is set to rise by 1.2% in 2022, surpassing 8 billion tonnes in a single year for the first time and eclipsing the previous record set in 2013, according to Coal 2022, the IEA’s latest annual market report on the sector. Based on current market trends, the report forecasts that coal consumption will then remain flat at that level through 2025 as declines in mature markets are offset by continued robust demand in emerging Asian economies. This means coal will continue to be the global energy system’s largest single source of carbon dioxide emissions by far. Expected coal demand in 2022 is very close to the IEA forecast published a year ago in Coal 2021, even if coal markets have been shaken by a range of conflicting forces since then. Higher natural gas prices amid the global energy crisis have led to increased reliance on coal for generating power, but slowing economic growth has at the same time reduced electricity demand and industrial output – and power generation from renewables has risen to a new record. In China, the world’s largest coal consumer, a heat wave and drought pushed up coal power generation during the summer, even as strict Covid-19 restrictions slowed down demand.The international coal market remained tight in 2022, with coal demand for power generation set to hit a new record. Coal prices rose to unprecedented levels in March and then again in June, pushed higher by the strains caused by the global energy crisis, especially the spikes in natural gas prices, as well as adverse weather conditions in Australia, a key international supplier. Europe, which has been heavily impacted by Russia’s sharp reductions of natural gas flows, is on course to increase its coal consumption for the second year in a row. However, by 2025, European coal demand is expected to decline below 2020 levels.The world’s three largest coal producers – China, India and Indonesia – will all hit production records in 2022. However, the report notes that despite high prices and comfortable margins for coal producers, there is no sign of surging investment in export-driven coal projects. This reflects caution among investors and mining companies about the medium- and longer-term prospects for coal. Coal demand is forecast to fall in advanced economies in the coming years as renewables increasingly displace it for electricity generation. However, emerging and developing economies in Asia are set to increase coal use to help power their economic growth, even as they add more renewables. Developments in China, the world’s largest coal consumer, will have the biggest impact on global coal demand in the coming years, but India will also be significant.

Gas for coal? Debate rages on as electric companies invest. - E&E NewsSome of the largest coal-burning power plants in the nation are being fast-tracked for retirement and replaced in part by cheaper, cleaner renewable energy — a trend that should accelerate following enactment of landmark federal climate legislation. But in saying goodbye to coal, utilities like DTE Energy Co. and AES Corp. are proposing new fossil fuel investments they insist are essential for reliability at a time when electric generation is increasingly dependent on weather. DTE plans to exit coal entirely years earlier than planned — in 2035 — and it wants to retrofit one its coal plants, the 1,300-megawatt Belle River plant near Detroit, to burn gas. In Indiana, AES wants to repower coal units totaling 1,052 MW at its Petersburg plant in similar fashion. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says more than 22,000 MW of new gas generation is planned in the United States, a figure that doesn’t include Belle River, Petersburg and numerous other newly proposed projects. A recent analysis by consultants McKinsey & Co. looks out even further and estimates 100,000 MW of new gas generation will be needed by 2040.Power industry officials say the projects don’t conflict with achieving long-term climate goals. In fact, they say swapping gas for coal by itself equals a huge carbon reduction and some argue gas will help integrate more wind and solar more quickly than could be accommodated otherwise. “The fastest way to a low-carbon future is actually more gas not less in the short run,” Clair Moeller, president of the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, which operates the bulk power grid across 15 states, told a recent conference of utility regulators. Longer-term, he said, those gas plants are “an insurance policy.” Not everyone agrees that fossil fuel additions are compatible with the science of avoiding the worst consequences of climate change. “The imperative to get to net zero by midcentury is kind of the main driver for why we really want to restrict investments in new fossil generation of any kind,” said Mike O’Boyle, director of electricity at Energy Innovation, a think tank. “Obviously, natural gas is a better alternative than coal. But the ship has sailed on new coal. It's really all about whether we can afford to build new gas. I don't think we can."

Why Kingston coal ash workers' suffering could be worth just $750,000- Ernie Hickman started showing symptoms of coal ash-related illnesses in February 2016. About a week after Thanksgiving that year, he died. The pain and suffering he and his family endured as a result is incalculable; however, Tennessee law would value it at no more than $750,000. Hickman was one of hundreds of workers who cleaned up the Tennessee Valley Authority’s Kingston coal ash spill after a dike holding back a pond of coal waste broke on Dec. 22, 2008, releasing 5.4 million cubic yards of the waste across neighborhoods and the Emory River Channel. Coal ash is the waste left over from burning coal. It is one of the largest industrial wastes in the United States and has built up across the world as coal is burned to generate electricity. The ash is filled with a concentration of heavy metals and potentially elements that emit radiation. This can pose a hazard to people who are exposed to the ash, especially large quantities of it. Breathing or ingesting this waste can bring those small particles into a person's body, pushing the elements into organs such as the lungs and into people's bloodstreams. TVA used to store coal ash in ponds. Wet storage made the ash easier to control and prevented it from becoming airborne. However, after the spill the ash dried out and became airborne anyway. TVA and its contractors brought on hundreds of workers to help clean up the disaster. They were the first ones at the spill site. Now many of those workers are either sick or have died, and their suffering is the focus of a lawsuit against the TVA contractor that was in charge of sitewide health and safety: Jacobs Solutions, formerly known as Jacobs Engineering. The workers’ lawsuits originally were filed nine years ago in 2013. Almost a decade later the workers have faced one obstacle after another in fighting to prove their injuries. There are more than 220 claims from workers and more than 100 claims from their spouses. In 2018, a jury ruled that Jacobs broke its contract with TVA for not ensuring sitewide safety and health and that their lack of protections for the workers could have caused their injuries.

Ohio bill to spur fracking in state parks and forests heads to governor's office - - -- Ohio lawmakers passed a bill meant to accelerate oil and gas drilling in state parks and on other state-owned land. The original bill focused on food processing rules when it was passed by the Ohio House of Representatives last spring, but when Ohio Senators took it up this month, they added amendments, one of which would change the language around leasing state lands for oil and gas drilling. The Ohio House passed the bill with the new amendments on Tuesday, and it is now in front of Governor Mike DeWine.  Since 2011, state agencies have been authorized to lease Ohio’s public lands for oil and gas drilling, including parks, forests, nature preserves and universities. The language of that law said agencies “may” lease state lands for oil and gas production. “The key part of the amendments goes from ‘may’ to ‘shall,’” said Senator Tim Schaffer, a Republican who represents parts of central and southeastern Ohio and sponsored the amendment. “It’s designed to encourage the state agencies to see that the state legislature, that the General Assembly in Ohio, really intends for them to negotiate in good faith with these oil and gas producers,” he said. According to Schaffer, even though state agencies have been allowed to lease state lands for drilling, including fracking, they haven’t been doing it. “I don’t know if it just wasn’t a high priority or what, but some of these deals have dragged on for years and years,” he said. Schaffer said lawmakers added the amendment to this unrelated bill in response to requests by the oil and gas industry. Environmentalists are concerned this will damage the state’s parks and other natural areas.“Most people in Ohio don’t want to see oil and gas rigs, don’t want to smell air pollution, don’t want to worry about water quality in their state parks or in the other public lands that they’re out hiking in with their families,” said Nathan Johnson, public lands director for the Ohio Environmental Council Action Fund.Pennsylvania currently has a moratorium on new oil and gas leasing on state forest and park lands. Johnson believes Ohio also needs to consider if these leases are a good idea.“There’s a big question, policy-wise, whether or not the best use of those public lands is to lease them to oil and gas development, to fracking, whether that’s on economic grounds, ecological grounds, outdoor recreation grounds in particular,” he said.Under this bill, the state is taking away its own authority to decide these leases, Johnson said. He worries that if the bill becomes law, state agencies will be required to approve oil and gas leases on state lands.“An oil and gas company could knock on the state’s door and say, ‘Hey, we want to drill in this park,’ and the state legally would have no real ability to say no,” he explained. “So that’s dramatically going to change the process.”

Columbia Gas seeks quick approval for Intel pipeline - Columbia Gas of Ohio is asking for expedited state approval to build a natural gas pipeline to the site in Licking County where Intel is constructing two factories.If approved, construction of the 4.2-mile, 12-inch diameter pipeline could begin as soon as April and be brought into service in 2024, according to the company."The project will allow Columbia to provide required natural gas for Intel’s planned operations as well as serve businesses that will serve or supply Intel," the company said in documents filed with the Ohio Power Siting Board, the state agency that reviews pipeline projects."We're excited to do our part to supply gas to Intel," said Ellen Macke, director of government and public affairs for Columbia Gas of Ohio.  Intel announced in January its plans to invest $20 billion to build two semiconductor factories in New Albany. It is the largest economic development project in state history. Intel has said the factories, calls fabs, will be finished in 2025.

32 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Dec 12-18 | Marcellus Drilling News - Last week (Dec. 12-18), the number of permits issued to drill new shale wells in the Marcellus/Utica bumped up nicely to 32, up from the prior week’s 20. Both Pennsylvania and Ohio issued 16 new shale permits each. West Virginia got skunked and issued none. Ascent Resources, Belmont County, Butler County, Carroll County, CNX Resources, Encino Energy, Guernsey County, Gulfport Energy, Harrison County, Indiana County, INR, LOLA Energy, Range Resources Corp, Southwestern Energy, Susquehanna County, Utica Resource Operating, Washington County, Weekly Permits, Westmoreland County

Pennsylvania Cites Shell Cracker for Emissions Violations Tied to Flaring - The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has issued a notice of violation to Shell Chemicals Appalachia LLC for exceeding its air pollutant limits after operations began at its ethane cracker near Pittsburgh.  Shell started operations at the massive complex in November. DEP said emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) exceeded the limits of its air quality plan approval. The plan allows VOC emissions of less than 516.2 tons over a 12-month period.   The agency said Shell submitted data showing that for the one-year period ending in September, VOC emissions reached 521.6 tons. The data also showed that VOCs reached 662.9 tons for the period ending in October. DEP noted that until September, the facility’s emissions were below its 12-month rolling limits, saying the violations “are associated with initial start-up of the facility.” The NOV is a first step in the state’s enforcement process as an investigation continues, but DEP said it could ultimately take further actions.  The agency has asked Shell to submit a root cause analysis and to detail steps to minimize flaring. VOCs are emitted as gases from solids or liquids and can have adverse health effects, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.   hell’s cracker is the first of its kind to be built in the United States outside the Gulf Coast in more than 20 years. It was sanctioned in 2016 to take advantage of Appalachian ethane supply from the Marcellus and Utica shales, along with a strong polyethylene market in the region. It is located in Beaver County on 384 acres along the Ohio River, about 30 miles northwest of Pittsburgh. The facility is designed to produce 1.5 million metric tons per year (mmty) of ethylene and 1.6 mmty of polyethylene, which are key building blocks for plastics. About 70% of the North American marketplace for polyethylene is within a 700-mile radius of the site, according to Shell.   A two-leg pipeline system collects ethane from processing and fractionation facilities in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The system has the capacity to move 100,000 b/d of ethane to the cracker under supply deals with approximately 10 Appalachian oil and gas producers.

CNX fined $200K for spills of fracking fluids in Greene County - The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection has fined the natural gas drilling company CNX for spilling natural gas production fluids at well sites in Greene County. The spills took place between 2019 and 2021, all in Richhill Township.  The largest spill took place on September 18, 2019, in which approximately 40 barrels, or 1,680 gallons, of production fluid leaked out of a containment structure and spilled on the ground at CNX RHL 71 and RHL 87 well site.  The DEP said the company tried to make repairs to the containment and remove fluids from the site. But CNX “postponed full remediation nearly 70 days due to its ongoing hydraulic fracturing activities,” according to a DEP press release. In total, the company had to remove nearly 1,400 tons of contaminated soil at the site. Another spill occurred at the site on January 23, 2021, in which 420 gallons of fluid discharged onto the ground due to an “equipment failure.” Another spill of 40 gallons occurred three months later. A smaller incident occurred in December 2019, in which 30 gallons of fluid leaked out of containment and into a sediment basin at the company’s RHL 4 well pad. According to the DEP, “CNX postponed removal of contaminated soil until hydraulic fracturing was completed, and the discharge continued for days.” The company ended up removing nearly 2,000 tons of contaminated soil from the site. “Delays like these are unacceptable. DEP expects, and the regulations require, prompt reporting and cleanup of spills and that operators will take measures to prevent future incidents,” said DEP southwest district oil and gas manager Dan Counahan, in a statement.  Production fluids are a byproduct of the drilling and fracking process in oil and gas production. They can contain high levels of naturally-occurring metals, radioactive materials, and salts, but also can contain fracking chemicals. The fluid is too toxic for disposal in municipal wastewater facilities and is typically disposed of in deep injection wells. The company paid two fines, of $125,000 and $75,000, for the violations. The money will go toward the state’s fund to plug abandoned oil and gas wells. CNX didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

We can’t forget the health dangers of fracking - Although it’s taken far too long – and so much work lies ahead – confronting the climate crisis has become a defining policy goal of the U.S. government, and people are starting to notice.   Whether that talk will lead to necessary action is still unclear, but people are recognizing the need to move away from fossil fuels, including fracked gas. Yet climate impacts are just one aspect of the threat posed by fossil fuels. A growing body of research is confirming a dangerous link between fracking and a wide range of health problems. It’s time Pennsylvania residents and regulators demand these health risks be addressed, including by establishing safer distances between fracking sites and people’s homes under state law. A recent Yale School of the Environment report details the established connection between fracking and health risks. Physicians for Social Responsibility and Concerned Health Professionals of New York report that 17.6 million people live within a mile of a fracked oil or gas well. That’s a public health crisis, according to the healthcare professionals and scientists in the group. Earlier this year, Yale researchers found that children living near Pennsylvania wells that use fracking to extract gas (aka methane) are two to three times more likely to contract a form of childhood leukemia than their peers who live farther away. Another study from Harvard found that elderly people living near or downwind from gas pads have a higher risk of premature death than seniors who don’t live in that proximity. Across thousands of peer-reviewed research papers, the health effects linked to exposure to fracking include respiratory conditions, heart disease, cancer, stress, and adverse effects on the developing fetus. For at-risk groups and all Pennsylvania residents, greater protections are needed. There are a few commonsense actions we can take now. The first is to require safer distances between these toxic fracking sites and the areas where people live and work. Known as setbacks or protective buffers, these limits on how close fracking infrastructure can be to buildings, schools, hospitals, and natural resources are established in Pennsylvania law. Currently, Pennsylvania only requires that well pads be 500 feet from residential buildings. Some well pads are 40 acres across – yet can be within 500 feet of a school or hospital. According to the Yale study and many others, a 500-foot barrier is woefully inadequate in protecting populations from the health hazards of fracking.Some states, such as New York, have banned fracking because of its negative impact on public health. Pennsylvania should do the same.

Fracking returns to burg with fiery taps - One of Pennsylvania's largest drillers will be allowed to extract natural gas from beneath a rural community where it has been banned for a dozen years per accusations the company polluted the village water supply, according to a settlement with state regulators. The state's Department of Environmental Protection lifted its long-term moratorium on gas production in Dimock, a small village in northeastern Pennsylvania that gained national notoriety when residents were filmed lighting their tap water on fire. The agency's agreement with Houston-based Coterra Energy Inc. is dated Nov. 29 -- the same day Coterra pleaded no contest in a high-profile criminal case accusing the company of allowing methane to leak uncontrolled into Dimock's aquifer. State officials denied that Coterra's plea to a misdemeanor charge was in exchange for being allowed to drill for potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth of gas. Some of the residents, who have long accused the Department of Environmental Protection of negligence in its handling of the water pollution in Dimock, said they felt betrayed. "We got played," said Ray Kemble, the most outspoken of a small group of Dimock residents who have battled the drilling company and state regulators. Coterra will be permitted to drill horizontally beneath a 9-square-mile area of Dimock and frack the gas-bearing shale that lies thousands of feet down. That's been forbidden since 2010, when environmental regulators accused Coterra's corporate predecessor of failing to keep its promise to restore or replace Dimock's water. The Department of Environmental Protection said it began negotiations with Coterra in early 2022, shortly after the company formed from the merger of Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. -- the driller deemed responsible for fouling Dimock's water supply -- and Cimarex Energy Co. "When Coterra took over responsibility of the wells after the Cabot merger, they actively engaged with DEP to address the remaining issues in the area," said agency spokesperson Jamar Thrasher. "Coterra committed to strict controls, monitoring and evaluation, resulting in some of the most restricted conditions on any drilling in the commonwealth." Cabot, the predecessor company to Coterra, was charged in June 2020 with 15 criminal counts over allegations it drilled faulty gas wells that leaked flammable methane into residential water supplies in Dimock and surrounding communities. Coterra pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor violation of the state Clean Streams Law. The plea deal with the state attorney general's office requires Coterra to pay more than $16 million to fund construction of a new public water system for Dimock and to pay affected residents' water bills for 75 years. Attorney General Josh Shapiro, a Democrat who takes office as governor next month, held a celebratory news conference with Kemble and two other Dimock residents on the day Coterra entered its plea. At the news conference, Shapiro appeared to dodge a reporter's question on whether Coterra would be permitted to resume drilling in the moratorium area, pointing out the administration of Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf remained in charge. "That's obviously a question for the regulators, not for the attorney general's office," Shapiro said then. Shapiro's spokesperson said the plea deal was not contingent on the state department's lifting the moratorium. "Our office plays no role in DEP's regulatory decisions and we do not share confidential information about criminal investigations," Jacklin Rhoads said. In an interview Friday, Wolf said he was satisfied with his administration's decision to allow Coterra to go back into Dimock, "as long as they do what we need them to do with the new water supply and the pipes." He said the company had to abide by "some pretty stringent guidelines."

Pennsylvania Lets Polluter Resume Drilling in Protected Zone, Outraging Residents in Fracking’s ‘Ground Zero’ -- On the same day that the Pennsylvania Attorney General’s Office reached a plea agreement with an energy company on charges of environmental crimes dating back more than a decade in the town of Dimock, state regulators quietly signed a consent order allowing the company to drill beneath an area that had been subject to a 12-year moratorium on such activity. The decision has outraged residents who’ve lived with the pollution tied to Coterra Energy’s previous fracking activity and endured over a decade in which they’ve lacked access to clean water for their homes. “We’re just goddamn puppets,” said Ray Kemble, 30-year Dimock resident of the 9-square-mile moratorium zone and water pollution victim, who stood next to Attorney General and Gov.-elect Josh Shapiro the day he applauded his office for reaching a conclusion to the years-long battle for clean water in the area. On Nov. 29, Coterra Energy and the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) signed a consent order allowing the operator, one of the largest natural gas producers in the state, to drill laterally beneath an area that has been mostly fracking-free since 19 households found methane in their water in 2008 and 2009. On November 4, 2009, the DEP signed a consent order tying drilling by Coterra — then called Cabot Oil and Gas, prior to a merger with Cimarex Energy Co. in 2021 — to household water pollution, banning the company from drilling new natural gas wells in the area entirely. Following the new consent order, Coterra will now be allowed to drill horizontally underneath the 9-square-mile protected zone, as long as the top hole of a well is drilled outside of it. (Fracking involves drilling vertically for thousands of feet underground, then horizontally, carving an L-shaped path.) The consent order was not announced to residents nor mentioned during a Nov. 29 plea hearing at which many celebrated a long-sought victory: Coterra agreed to pay $16.29 million for clean water wells and a water line to provide clean water to residents who have been deprived of such for over a decade, as well as $58,000 to each affected household to cover its water bills for the next 75 years. The new order allowing lateral drilling represents the fulfillment of a request Coterra has made to regulators numerous times over the last 13 years. “Based upon the remedial work of Cabot … Coterra is requesting that the Department allow new drilling and hydraulic fracturing of wells with surface locations outside the Dimock/Carter Road Area and laterals that traverse under and produce the Dimock/Carter Road Area,” the consent order reads. “New drilling or hydraulic fracturing is currently restricted by the 2010 COSA.”

Residents Fear New Methane Contamination as Pennsylvania Lifts Its Gas-Drilling Ban in the Township of Dimock - Residents of a Pennsylvania town famous for its flammable tap water fear another round of methane contamination after state officials lifted a 12-year ban on drilling for natural gas beneath their feet. The state’s Department of Environmental Protection signed an agreement with Coterra Energy, allowing it to restart harvesting natural gas from a nine-square-mile “box” beneath Dimock in northeastern Pennsylvania, where the company’s predecessor, Cabot Oil and Gas, was ejected in 2010 after contaminating numerous private water wells with methane. Victoria Switzer, a long-time Dimock resident and an outspoken opponent of the gas industry, said she was “depressed and disappointed” by the new consent agreement because it will end the DEP’s testing of her water every three months, and replace that with testing by Coterra. She’s also worried that plugging more than a dozen old wells in the township will result in the renewed migration of methane into people’s water wells. She argued that DEP should not have allowed a resumption of drilling in a gas-rich area of Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale field until residents were connected to the promised public water system.“The opening of the box should not occur until water is flowing into the homes of the impacted residents and any other family that wants peace of mind when it comes to their life source: their water,” she said. The new DEP agreement with Coterra places many new restrictions on the company’s gas-harvesting plans, including monitoring new wells for any methane escape, evaluating drinking water wells near its operations and plugging old gas wells that were the source of water contamination. The company will not be allowed to drill vertical wells within the “box” as it did before, but can sink those wells outside the area, and then extend horizontal “laterals” beneath the town, according to the agreement. Coterra is also required within six months to install, as an interim solution, water-treatment systems to all affected residents who agree to the offer. If the new system is unable to be built for “any reason,” the company must apply to the DEP for permission to operate the interim systems for 30 years, the agreement says. The document, signed on Nov. 29, also requires the company to pay $16.29 million to install within five years a public water system that would remove the risk of future contamination from nearby gas drilling. That requirement was also part of a plea agreement with Coterra that was reached by Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro on the same day, in which the company pleaded no-contest to criminal charges stemming from violation of the state’s Clean Streams Law, and agreed to pay the water bills of affected residents for 75 years.

Groups Blast Dimock Fracking Decision, Demand Action from Shapiro  -  Following reports that the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) will allow fracking giant Coterra (formerly Cabot Oil and Gas) to resume drilling operations in Dimock, over 50 groups delivered a letter to Governor-elect Josh Shapiro today decrying the decision to once again put the people of Dimock in harm’s way. The letter – signed by Food & Water Watch, Earthworks, Better Path Coalition, Delaware Riverkeeper Network, Friends of the Earth and others – specifically calls for Governor-elect Shapiro to undo the decision when he takes office next month. “The people of Dimock have suffered long enough, and no one knows better than Governor-elect Shapiro that the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) cannot be trusted to make the practice safe. He has prosecuted several cases involving the DEP’s complete inability to regulate the fracking industry,” said Food & Water Watch organizer Ginny Marcille-Kerslake. “The simple truth is that no amount of regulation can make fracking safe, and subjecting the people of Dimock to the dangers of the oil and gas industry again is an outrageous betrayal. It’s up to Shapiro to set this right.” Pennsylvanians are up in arms about the decision to re-open Dimock to fracking, with close to 2,000 quickly signing on to a petition this week from the Better Path Coalition demanding that Shapiro reverse the decision.“Josh Shapiro promised to go after the polluters as Attorney General. His job is about to change; as Governor, his job is to prevent pollution, an outcome all but guaranteed if Coterra is allowed to drill anywhere near Dimock. Governor-Elect Shapiro must reinstate the ban on day one as governor,” said Karen Feridun, Co-founder of the Better Path Coalition.“Just as we saw with Mariner East, the situation in Dimock shows how our regulatory agencies have been captured by oil and gas interests. In addition to reinstating the fracking moratorium in Dimock on his first day as governor, Shapiro should prioritize putting in people who will actually take seriously the missions of the DEP and PUC, as well as enforcing the green amendment to Pennsylvania’s constitution, which guarantees us clean air and water,”

Mountain Valley Pipeline in West Virginia hits another roadblock — A controversial natural gas pipeline in West Virginia appears dead for now after it failed to make next year’s spending bill from Congress. There certainly could be renewed efforts with a new Congress coming next year, but the Mountain Valley Pipeline has hit a dead end for now. The Mountain Valley Pipeline was designed to take natural gas from northern West Virginia to all the way southeast of Roanoke, Virginia, and then eventually into North Carolina. Supporters say it would have given the United States a huge power source and energy independence, and other natural gas could be sold to our European allies. But the U.S. Senate has been unable to shorten the permitting process. “It’s a ten-year commitment to support fossil industry, cleaner in the United States. But a ten year path for fossil in the United States so that we would be energy independent and have the horsepower it takes to run our country,” said Manchin. Senator Manchin says 2,500 jobs will be lost, and that West Virginia will lose out on $40 million a year in severance tax revenue. He says landowners will lose out on $300 million in royalties from the sale of natural gas from their properties. Manchin also said the decision to strip out the permitting item from the budget bill was purely political, because Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and many other Republicans did not want to give Democrat Manchin a big victory.

US oil, gas rig count falls by nine as gas-focused drilling slows The US oil and gas drilling rig count fell nine to 863 in the week ended Dec. 21, S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed Dec. 22. An eight-rig slide in the number of gas-focused drilling rigs to 184 comprised the bulk of the weekly decline, while the number of rigs chasing primarily oil dipped one to 679. Most of these idled gas rigs were found outside the major plays, however. Rig counts in the eastern Marcellus and Utica shale play declined by two and one, respectively, to 33 and 14, but the number of rigs active in the southern Haynesville basin was steady at 81. In contrast, Permian basin rig counts climbed to 354, testing the top of its recent range, and Bakken drillers added three rigs for a total of 44—a six-week high. Despite the increase in Bakken rigs, severe weather in the region has blunted output. Sub-zero temperatures and heavy snow in the past week have seen gas production in the Bakken fall to 1.46 Bcf/d Dec. 19, the lowest level recorded since late April of this year and the lowest mark recorded in December since 2017, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data. Meanwhile, around 300,000-400,000 b/d of oil production was shut-in in North Dakota by the recent storm, with the bulk of that output not expected to be restored until 2023, according to North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources director Lynn Helms. In a move designed to support prices and provide forward certainty for producers, the US Department of Energy Dec. 16 announced plans for its first repurchase of oil to begin replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The move comes after an unprecedented 180 million barrel release over several months to combat energy price hikes that Russia's invasion of Ukraine spurred. The DOE issued a solicitation for up to 3 million barrels of sour crude for delivery in February to the Big Hill SPR site in Texas. Analysts at ClearView Energy Partners said the relatively small volume of the buyback was likely a test of the DOE's new fixed-price contracting authorities. "Further buybacks could follow if the department judges the test to have been successful," they said in a Dec. 16 research note. "We think that could potentially happen as soon as [first or second quarter] 2023, even if delivery does not occur until FY 2024 or beyond. The timing could reflect several considerations, however."

With Warmer Air Coming, January Natural Gas Futures Flop - Natural gas futures flopped a second consecutive trading day as the weather outlook for later this month and early next pointed to milder conditions and easing demand. The January Nymex gas futures contract settled at $5.851/MMBtu on Monday, down 74.9 cents day/day. February fell 59.3 cents to $5.710. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg., in contrast, pushed ahead 7.5 cents to $11.405 amid strong near-term consumption. Forecasts to start the trading week showed Arctic cold advancing from the northern reaches of the country further south later this week and into the weekend, driving robust demand and supporting cash prices. Sub-zero highs are expected in northern markets and freezing temperatures could invade areas as far south as Houston. However, data trended warmer for the Dec. 27-Jan. 1 period, according to NatGasWeather. The “frigid cold pool retreats into Canada” during this stretch, allowing warmer-than-normal conditions to spread over the Lower 48 to close out the year and to start 2023. “With highs of 60s and 70s over the southern U.S. Dec. 27-Jan. 1 and highs of 20s to 50s over the northern U.S., national demand will drop to light levels,” the firm said. “How long this warmer-than-normal pattern extends into January will be of great interest, since the longer it holds, the more likely it’s going to disappoint.” EBW Analytics Group said demand could “collapse” well into the first week of January. The outlook weighed on prices to start this week as forecasts did to finish the prior week – the prompt month shed 37.0 cents on Friday. Still, EBW analysts said, pressure on prices could ease this week amid intense cold that, in addition to bolstering heating demand, could cause wellhead freeze-offs and curb production from the Rockies across North Dakota to the Midcontinent and into the Northeast. Impacts from the cold could potentially reach Texas as well. “If producers are forced to divert capital expenditures and labor to manage existing production, it could further detract from the ability to bring new supply online in coming weeks,” said EBW’s Eli Rubin, senior analyst.

U.S. natgas drops 9% with less cold weather coming in January - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 9% to a seven-week low on Tuesday on forecasts for the weather to turn warmer than normal in late December and early January. That price drop came despite forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next week than previously expected. U.S. gas futures remained on track for their most volatile year ever. Both implied and historic volatility were expected to hit record highs in 2022 as soaring global gas prices this year feed demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine. Traders said the biggest uncertainty for the market remains when Freeport LNG will restart its LNG export plant in Texas. Gas started to flow to Freeport on Tuesday for the first time since August, according to data provider Refinitiv. Traders said Freeport is likely using the gas to fuel a power plant at the site, but it could also be a sign that the facility is getting closer to restarting. After several delays - from October to November to December - the company has said several times this month that the plant is on track to restart by the end of the year. Many analysts, however, do not expect Freeport to return until the first quarter of 2023 because the company still has a lot of work to do to satisfy federal regulators before the plant is ready to restart. Whenever Freeport returns, U.S. demand for gas will jump. The plant can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas into LNG for export, which is about 2% of U.S. daily production. Freeport shut on June 8 after a pipe failure caused an explosion due to inadequate operating and testing procedures, human error and fatigue, according to a report by consultants hired to review the incident and suggest action. A couple of vessels - Prism Diversity and Prism Courage - have been waiting in the Gulf of Mexico to pick up LNG from Freeport since at least early November. Several other ships were also sailing toward the plant, including Elisa Larus, which is expected to arrive in late December, Point Fortin and Prism Agility (early January), Kmarin Diamond (mid-January) and Wilforce (late-January). Even without Freeport, the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants hit 13.0 bcfd last week, the most since May 29 - 10 days before Freeport shut. That is because the nation's six other big export plants were operating near full capacity. In what has already been an extremely volatile couple of weeks for the front-month, gas futures fell 52.5 cents, or 9.0%, to settle at $5.326 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Oct. 27. Gas futures have climbed or dropped more than 5% every day since Dec. 12, rising as much as 8% on Dec. 15 and falling as much as 11% on Dec. 19.

Strength in Cash Prices Pushes Natural Gas Futures - Natural gas futures eked out a gain Wednesday amid worries that a fierce and widespread winter freeze could force production interruptions, ending a three-day run of steep losses. The January Nymex gas futures contract settled at $5.332/MMBtu, up six-tenths of a cent day/day. February rose 2.2 cents to $5.238. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. surged $6.960 to $16.065, as bitter cold enveloped the West and the nation’s midsection. Natural gas production on Wednesday held around 99 Bcf/d. But with subzero temperatures in the Midwest expected to also canvas the East Thursday and Friday, and with freezing temperatures projected for as far South as Texas late in the week, analysts said wellhead freeze-offs and production cuts were likely. The final days of this week will bring “one of the coldest outbreaks of the winter” to date, with a “dangerous Arctic blast” delivering frigid temperatures to the Rockies and Plains and down into Texas, according to NatGasWeather. “With a hard freeze over production areas, flows are expected to drop by several Bcf to near 95 Bcf/d, if not lower.” In addition to blizzard conditions in the Midwest and freezing rains in parts of the Northeast, “subfreezing air is also expected into the South and Southeast, as well as the potential for rare snowfall,” the firm added. Futures markets had faltered the three prior days on forecasts for mild weather near the end of December and to start 2023. But the intensity and breadth of this week’s winter weather tilted markets in bulls’ favor for at least one day. The “looming” demand collapse to start 2023 suggests another leg lower could occur after near-term cold fades and February becomes the front-month contract next week,” said EBW Analytics Group’s Eli Rubin, senior analyst. In the immediate term, however, “freeze-off risks over Christmas weekend – with January options expiration and final settlement early next week – could help reinforce support for Nymex gas prices.” Weather in Texas, in particular, could wreak havoc this week, though analysts said it is not likely to rival February 2021’s Winter Storm Uri.

U.S. natgas drops 6% to 2-month low on less cold, small storage draw  (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 6% to a two-month low on Thursday on forecasts for warmer weather in late December and early January than previously expected and a smaller-than-expected storage draw last week. Futures dropped despite forecasts for extreme cold over the next week that have boosted spot power and gas prices to their highest levels in years across parts of the country and put gas output on track to drop to a seven-month low due to freezing oil and gas wells in Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and elsewhere. Gas output was down about 4.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) over the past three days to a preliminary seven-month low of 94.3 bcfd on Thursday. That would be the biggest drop in daily output since the February freeze of 2021 when a winter storm froze gas supplies in Texas and forced that state's electric grid operator to impose rolling power outages. The futures price decline also occurred after a federal report showed last week's storage withdrawal was smaller than expected because mild weather kept heating demand low and lots of wind power reduced the amount of gas generators needed to burn to produce electricity. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 87 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Dec. 16. That was less than the 93-bcf decline analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decrease of 60 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 124 bcf. Last week's decrease cut stockpiles to 3.325 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 0.7% over the five-year average of 3.303 tcf for this time of year. That is the first time the amount of gas in storage was higher than the five-year average since mid-January. After weeks of extreme volatility, front-month gas futures fell 33.3 cents, or 6.2%, to settle at $4.999 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That was the contract's lowest close since it settled at a seven-month low of $4.959 on Oct. 21. Traders said the biggest uncertainty for the market remains when Freeport LNG will restart its LNG export plant in Texas. After several delays - from October to November to December - the company has said several times this month that the plant is on track to restart by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval. Whenever the plant returns, U.S. demand for gas will jump. It can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export, which is about 2% of U.S. daily production.

U.S. natgas up 2% as extreme cold cuts output, demand set to break record  (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained about 2% on Friday as extreme cold this week boosted spot power and gas prices to their highest in years across much of the country and cut gas output to a nine-month low by freezing oil and gas wells in Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and elsewhere. U.S. daily demand from the four biggest gas consuming sectors - residential, commercial, power and industrial - was on track to reach 147.3 billion cubic feet (bcf) on Friday, which would easily break the current record of 131.1 bcf set in January 2019, according to data from Refinitiv. The storms caused about 1.5 million homes and businesses to lose power on the U.S. East Coast, Midwest and Texas, shut several large refineries, and caused problems at the Cameron LNG export plant in Louisiana. The futures price increase came despite forecasts for less cold weather from late December-early January than previously expected, which should allow utilities to leave more gas in storage at the start of the new year. Gas stockpiles were about 1% above the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year. Gas output was down about 6.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) over the past four days to a preliminary nine-month low of 92.4 bcfd on Friday. That would be the biggest drop in daily output since the February freeze of 2021 when a winter storm froze gas supplies in Texas and forced that state's electric grid operator to impose rolling power outages. After weeks of extreme volatility, front-month gas futures rose 8.0 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $5.079 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its lowest level since settling at a seven-month low of $4.959 on Oct. 21. For the week, gas futures were down about 23.0% after rising about 5.7% last week. That would be the contract's biggest weekly decline since it dropped 23.2% in late October. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 139.9 bcfd this week to 148.8 bcfd next week with more cold weather coming before dropping to 116.2 bcfd in two weeks with the weather expected to turn mild in late December-early January.

Winter Storm Walloping USA Threatens to Disrupt LNG Exports- A winter storm battering huge swaths of the US threatens to temporarily disrupt exports of liquefied natural gas from the Gulf Coast, exacerbating the global fuel crunch. The arctic front, expected to continue for several days, is triggering warnings and advisories stretching from Maine to the Gulf of Mexico. The US is a major LNG exporter and a key supplier to Europe, which means port disruptions could have a global impact. Subfreezing temperatures and high winds through Dec. 26 may cause delays or suspension to pilot services for the Sabine-Neches Waterway in Texas, according to notices from Moran Shipping. The waterway services the Sabine Pass terminal, the largest US LNG export facility. Pilots for the port of Corpus Christi, who are responsible for docking vessels in the southern Texas region, have suspended boarding vessels due to the cold, according to Moran. That may affect ship traffic to the Corpus Christi LNG export facility. Cheniere Energy Inc., operator of the Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi terminals, said that it always prepares for and responds to extreme weather to safely manage operations. The company didn’t comment on the current operations of the facilities.

IEEFA: European LNG Boom Not All Good For US Exporters -- Data from the U.S. Department of Energy and S&P Global shows that by mid-August European LNG imports had already exceeded the White House target. Although full-year data isn’t available yet, by the end of 2022 total LNG export volumes from the U.S. to EU member states will likely surpass 55 bcm – which is more than two and a half times last year’s level and represents a 34-bcm year-over-year gain, more than double the White House’s target. Adding in the UK and Turkey, which aren’t part of the EU but have significant gas pipeline connections to the region, U.S. LNG shipments to greater European gas markets could reach 75 bcm by the end of the year, up by 44 bcm from 2021. What made all this even more remarkable was the loss of all output from the Freeport LNG terminal in early June, due to a massive explosion at the Texas plant. At the time, Freeport represented almost 20 percent of total U.S. liquefaction capacity, and it had sent more than three-fifths of its output to Europe in the first part of the year. If Freeport hadn’t blown up IEEFA believes that U.S. LNG exports to greater Europe could have topped 80 bcm in 2022. As dramatic as this shift has been, the U.S. might ship even more LNG to Europe next year than this year. One recently completed LNG project, the Calcasieu Pass LNG plant in Louisiana, was just ramping up output at the beginning of 2022. Now that the plant is operating at full capacity, its annual shipments to the EU rise by 4 to 5 bcm in 2023. To IEEFA, the Freeport LNG terminal remains a wildcard. It's taken far longer than expected to get the plant up and running again, and federal regulators recently asked the company to resolve a long list of issues before the plant can reenter service. But if the plant resumes operation in the second quarter of 2023, IEEFA claims that it could add an additional 1 to 2 bcm to the trans-Atlantic LNG trade over the coming year. Put simply, the U.S. has shipped more LNG to Europe than virtually anyone thought possible and could ship even more next year. Regarding this, IEEFA stated that the lessons here weren’t necessarily what one might think. First, political intervention played almost no role in any of the increase in U.S. LNG shipments to the EU. “The White House has been little more than a cheerleader, watching the game from the sidelines. The real action has been in prices: The key reason that the U.S. LNG industry shipped so much of its product to Europe is that European buyers paid them,” IEEFA said. European buyers were willing to pay a premium for any LNG cargo they could get. Since U.S. LNG contracts don’t limit where the fuel can be shipped, European buyers snapped up as much as they could. “In the process, U.S. LNG companies and traders made boatloads of money, both literally and metaphorically, shipping their wares to Europe,” the Institute added. Second, despite the massive increase in LNG imports, Europe is still short of gas. As U.S. liquefied LNG exports to Europe surged, Russia progressively slashed its pipeline gas exports. “It’s difficult to know whether the two are linked, yet it’s clear that Russia was using its dominance in the EU gas market to inflict both political and economic pain on its rivals. The result is that Europe is more gas-starved than ever, with total gas consumption falling more than 20 percent year-over-year in the latter portion of 2022. Energy-intensive industries have been particularly hard-hit by the shortfalls,” the Institute stated. Third, the dramatic increase in U.S. LNG shipments to Europe was accomplished without building any new gas infrastructure beyond what was already planned at the beginning of the year. Two new U.S. projects were approved in mid-2022, but they won’t be online for years. Germany rushed one new LNG receiving terminal into service in mid-December, but the first cargo isn’t expected until next year. European politicians are considering expansions of gas infrastructure, with plans that analysts are already calling massively oversized. But the major gains in LNG imports from the U.S. were accomplished without any new terminals. As it turned out, boosting LNG exports to Europe didn’t require new infrastructure. Using existing facilities more efficiently was enough. A fourth lesson is that the EU’s gain in LNG imports has mostly come at the expense of Asia—particularly developing nations with fragile economies. For example, global traders Eni and Gunvor defaulted on their contracts to deliver LNG to Pakistan at least 11 times since 2021, forcing gas rationing and emergency tenders for more supplies. “At this point, sky-high prices and supply glitches have saddled LNG with a reputation as an unreliable and volatile energy source, curbing LNG-to-power plans in Asia and forcing energy forecasters—including Bloomberg, ICIS, and IEA, among others—to slash their projections for Asian LNG demand growth,” IEEFA claimed. Lastly, the Institute believes that the EU’s appetite for U.S. LNG is far from guaranteed in the long run. Europe is certainly reeling from limited gas supplies in the short term. But the continent is responding mostly by cutting demand for gas, by using the fuel more efficiently while ramping up substitutes such as wind and solar. Those shifts are likely to last for the long haul and are being supercharged both by high prices and by the continent’s ambitious climate goals, which call for major cuts in gas consumption. The European economic think tank Bruegel projects that cuts in European gas demand by 2030 could be so steep that most of the continent’s LNG import infrastructure will be unneeded. In short, the boom in U.S. LNG exports to Europe could be fleeting. European demand for LNG can be expected to remain high for several years, as the continent adjusts to a new and more fractious relationship with Russia, its former top gas supplier.

Corrosion Left Keystone Pipeline ‘Less than Half the Thickness of a Dime,’ Says U.S. Government Accountability Office  - -  Total oil spills from the Keystone Pipeline have grown to 25,975 bbl since TC Energy Corp. opened the conduit in 2010 to transport Canadian crude south to the Midwest and Gulf of Mexico. The estimated 14,000 bbl leak began on Dec. 7 into a Kansas creek and farm, halting flows for a week and leaving TC unable to state the cause as of yet. The leak has more than doubled the 11,975 bbl spill count as of mid-2021 by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO).The count, in a report titled Pipeline Safety: Information on Keystone Accidents and Department of Transportation Oversight, followed a 17-month performance audit. The GAO examined Keystone as the only U.S. oil line allowed to exceed standard industry operating pressure in its pipe.The cause of the Kansas spill remains under investigation. High pressure did not cause Keystone leaks documented until mid-2021, said the 38-page GAO report to the U.S. House of Representatives’ Energy and Commerce Committee and Transportation Committee.An inquiry for the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) blamed the mishaps on construction issues such as pump station vibration, a failed weld, a dent inflicted by a work vehicle, and an “atypical” steel seam that weakened the pipe. Risks caused by corrosion are also severe. The GAO described an October 2012 spill disaster threat that TC and the PHMSA spotted and prevented on four pipe sections in sensitive, populated areas on a Keystone leg across Missouri and Illinois.“In all four locations, the amount of metal loss – that is, corrosion – was over 60% deep. In one location, 97% of the metal had corroded, leaving a remaining pipeline wall thickness of 0.0120 inch – less than half the thickness of a dime,” said the GAO.The PHMSA granted Keystone its lone standing as a high-pressure U.S. line during its design in 2007. The permit lets the conduit work at 80% of specified minimum yield strength (SMYS). The U.S. industry standard is 72%.Use of the high-pressure permit spread gradually after Keystone deliveries began in 2010 and the entire network qualified as of 2017. The line also had its previous biggest spills, in North Dakota and South Dakota, in 2017 and 2019.Canada adopted an 80% SMYS rule for high-strength oil pipe in 2004. In the U.S., TC accepted 51 conditions to secure the Keystone pressure permit. Others follow the lower SMYS standard as cheaper to obey than the Keystone conditions, reported the GAO. Safer pipelines for natural gas have obtained 94 high-pressure permits.By a standard that industry critics favor, Keystone spills stand out. The 25,975 bbl total would fill an entire long course or Olympic-sized swimming pool plus nearly two-thirds of a second one, each 50 meters long, 25 meters wide and two meters deep.But by industrial shipping standards, the spills are small. Total leaks to date work out to 4.3% of one day of traffic on the 2,6875-mile Keystone route for 600,000 b/d of Canadian exports to the U.S. Midwest and Texas coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

UPDATE: 6,900+ barrels of oil recovered from Keystone spill -  More than 6,900 barrels of oil have now been recovered from the Keystone Pipeline oil spill in Kansas.  As of 5 p.m. on Friday, Dec. 16, TC Energy - the company which operates the Keystone Pipeline - says crews have recovered a total of 6,973 barrels of oil - nearly half of the 14,000 released into Mill Creek in Washington Co. - following a rupture in the pipeline. It noted that the total includes 10,351 barrels of oil and water.  The company also indicated that the response personnel now on the scene exceeds 400 members. It said it continues to respond to the incident alongside the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, as well as the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. TC Energy noted that the affected segment of the Keystone Pipeline System remains safely isolated as investigation, recovery, repair and remediation continues. It will not be restarted until it is safe to do so and with regulatory approval from PHMSA.

More than half of oil spilled in Keystone Pipeline rupture recovered - - More than half of the oil spilled into Mill Creek in the Keystone Pipeline rupture has been recovered. TC Energy, the Canadian company which operates the Keystone Pipeline, says as of 5 p.m. on Sunday, Dec. 18, that it has recovered more than half the barrels of oil from Mill Creek that had spilled into it from the rupture in the pipeline. It said efforts continue to progress at the Washington Co. site. The oil spill was detected on Dec. 8. About 10 days later, 7,233 barrels of the 14,000 released into the creek had been recovered. As of Monday morning, about 600 personnel were on site. According to TC Energy, the forecasted cold weather has the potential to slow recovery efforts. The company also indicated that it has established a notification system for those who wish to sign up and receive the latest updates in its recovery efforts. TC Energy noted that it continues to work alongside the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Kansas Department of Health and Environment. The EPA has also released an interactive tool to show updated data on response efforts which will be updated daily. TC Energy said the affected segment of the Pipeline remains isolated as investigation, recovery, repair and remediation continue to advance. It said the segment will not be restarted until it is safe to do so and when regulatory approval is provided.

TC Energy Recovers Around 14K Barrels from Incident Site - TC Energy has revealed that, as of December 18, an estimated 13,877 barrels of oil and water have been recovered as part of its response and oil recovery effort at its Keystone Pipeline System Milepost 14 Incident site in Washington County, Kansas. Although the company’s recovery rates have been building over the past few days, TC Energy warned these have the potential to slow by the upcoming cold weather in the area. As of December 16, the company had recovered 10,351 barrels of oil and water from the incident site, as of December 15, it had recovered 7,397 barrels of oil and water, as of December 14, it had recovered 5,567 barrels of oil and water, and, as of December 12, it had recovered 2,598 barrels of oil and water, TC Energy’s website shows. On December 7, TC Energy responded to a release of oil from its Keystone Pipeline System into a creek in Washington County, according to a statement posted on its website, which noted that the affected segment had been isolated. “We continue to gather information as part of the investigation,” TC Energy stated in a frequently asked questions segment on its site focusing on the incident’s cause. “What we know is that the line was operating at reduced pressure at the time of the incident. We have ruled out a third-party strike as the cause,” the company added. “With the area around the impacted segment of pipeline section now excavated, we will be able to learn more about the next steps for repair and investigation. Once we remove the pipe section, it will be transported to a metallurgical laboratory for testing by an independent third party. Ultimately, PHMSA will share the final analysis of the root cause or causes,” TC Energy continued. “We won’t have specifics about the cause of the incident until we complete the investigation, and the segment of the pipeline is thoroughly analyzed by the NTSB metallurgical lab. Any findings shared until then would be speculation,” TC Energy went on to state.

Keystone pipeline operator reports more than half of leaked oil has been recovered  -— The Canadian company that operates the Keystone pipeline indicated Wednesday that more than half of the crude oil spilled from a rupture near a northeast Kansas creek has now been recovered.TC Energy, in an update posted Wednesday morning, said its crews had recovered an estimated 7,599 barrels of oil from Mill Creek, and a total of 15,488 barrels of oil and water.That would be more than half of the estimated 14,000 barrels of oil — about 588,000 gallons — that spilled into the creek east of Washington, Kansas, in a leak detected Dec. 7.It was the largest leak to date on the 12-year-old crude oil pipeline, and larger than five previous, reportable leaks combined, according to the Government Accountability Office.TC Energy, formerly TransCanada, said Wednesday that crews had removed the impacted pipeline segment and have sent it to an independent lab for metallurgical testing.The testing was ordered by the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, which regulates pipelines. The leak site is just a few miles south of Steele City, Nebraska, where TC Energy has a pipeline terminal. The cause of the leak is still under investigation, but it occurred as the company was sending a diagnostic tool through the metal pipe in that area.A group that has opposed tar sands pipelines, the Bold Alliance, has called for the entire pipeline to be shut down so the integrity of the metal pipe can be assessed. Environmental groups have also expressed worry about the oil recovery because tar sands oil sinks in water, rather than floats like conventional oil.The Keystone pipeline — a forerunner of the more controversial and now abandoned Keystone XL pipeline — transports refined crude oil from Canada’s tar sands region to refineries on the Texas Gulf Coast and in southern Illinois.

Pipeline company says Kansas oil spill contained, but chemicals found downstream --  Chemicals from the Keystone pipeline spill in north-central Kansas have shown up farther downstream in Mill Creek than the oil company’s repeated statements suggest. TC Energy and regulatory agencies say the oil spill is limited to a containment area — the length of the stream that lies between where the company’s pipeline burst and where workers quickly built an earthen dam about four miles downstream. Yet state environment officials say benzene, toluene and other volatile organic compounds have been detected beyond the two emergency dams that were installed after the Keystone pipeline’s worst environmental accident to date. The contamination that migrated downstream of the four-mile, oil-soaked stretch of Mill Creek poses a threat to animals but not to human drinking water, the Kansas Department of Health and Environment said Wednesday. Two weeks after the Dec. 7 spill, contamination levels remain below a threshold for acute harm to aquatic life, a spokesperson confirmed by email, but they could hurt wildlife that ingests the chemicals through the food chain. Last Thursday, an official who directs state efforts at the pipeline spill told members of the Kansas Water Authority that public drinking supplies remain safe. “The downstream public water supply intakes are far enough downstream that — and I never want to say this — (the contamination) will experience a lot of dilution before it gets there,” Erich Glave said. “Dilution is not the solution, but (drinking water) is protected at this point.” Glave directs KDHE’s Bureau of Environmental Field Services. Mill Creek flows into the Little Blue River, about 10 miles from the Washington County spill site. The Little Blue flows into the Big Blue River, which feeds Tuttle Creek Reservoir near Manhattan. The state says the levels of benzene and other chemicals “remain below our standards in the Little Blue River and downstream in Tuttle Creek Reservoir.” Glave said people with private wells could reach out with concerns. “If a private well owner thinks that they’ve been impacted,” he said, “they should contact us and then we can work with them to make sure that TC tests their well, and gets it right.” TC Energy and the crews it hired are carrying out the cleanup, with oversight, guidance and orders from the EPA and KDHE. More than 600 workers are at the site, including those crews and people from various state and federal agencies. TC Energy and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency have kept a tight lid on details at the scene — where the company says about half of the nearly 600,000 gallons of spilled diluted bitumen crude oil have been recovered — so Glave’s public update to the Kansas Water Authority at a meeting in Colby opened a small window into how things are progressing. Here are details divulged in his update and in emails from a KDHE spokesman since then:

Despite giant oil spill, push continues for more pipelines -TC Energy provides nearly daily updates on its efforts to clean up its recent oil spill in Kansas, but the incident continues to pour fuel on the political debate surrounding the company’s Keystone pipeline system. The company’s record regarding pipeline leaks provides ready talking points for environmentalists who opposed TC’s plans for its Keystone XL pipeline expansion project. Still, Oklahoma’s congressional delegation, state leaders and industry heads continue to push for approval of the company’s pipeline permits. “As of Dec. 18, 5 p.m. CT, we have recovered an estimated 7,233 barrels of oil from the creek (13,877 barrels of oil and water),” reads the update TC Energy posted Monday morning. “Our recovery rates have the potential to slow by the upcoming cold weather in the area.” The Keystone pipeline released an estimated 14,000 barrels of oil – roughly 588,000 gallons – into a creek and pastureland in Washington County, Kansas, on Dec. 7. The spill will be particularly difficult to clean up due to the type of oil that was being transported through the pipeline: tar sands oil, also known as diluted bitumen. Previous spills of bitumen took years and required removal of environmental elements that came into contact with the substance. The spill is the worst in the system’s history and follows major spills in 2017, when more than 6,500 barrels spilled near Amherst, South Dakota, and in 2019, when 4,515 barrels spilled near Edinburg, North Dakota. The Keystone pipeline, which currently transports oil and natural gas from Canada down through Cushing, Oklahoma, on its way to Gulf Coast refineries, has experienced 22 leaks since 2010, though most incidents were small. Since 2010, more than 3.6 billion barrels of crude oil has passed through the Keystone pipeline, which has the capacity to deliver up to 590,000 barrels a day, according to TC Energy. Nearly 30,000 barrels have been spilled – a fraction of the pipeline’s capacity but a greater percentage than industry norms. In 2021, a U.S. Government Accountability Office issued a report on the Keystone pipeline, examining the system as the only one in the United States to have been granted a permit to exceed standard industry operating pressure. The cause for the Dec. 7 is yet to be determined. The GAO report did find extensive corrosion in the pipeline. In one portion of the pipeline, 97% of the metal had corroded, leaving the wall less than half the thickness of a dime; in other portions the corrosion reached 60%. Yet, pipelines are crucial to the nation’s oil and gas industry, said Cody Bannister, spokesperson for the Oklahoma Petroleum Alliance. “Pipelines play an important role and being able to move crude oil and natural gas across the United States benefits us all,” Bannister said. The pipelines that move oil through Oklahoma to the Gulf are the reason gas prices are typically lower for Oklahoma than much of the nation. Oklahoma’s congressional delegation continually has pressed the Biden administration for revoking the permit for the Keystone XL, which would have allowed the company to transport even more oil across the Canadian border into the U.S.

TC Energy Expects Significant Winter Weather Impacts - In its latest Keystone Pipeline System incident update, TC Energy has warned that it is expecting “significant” winter weather impacts over the upcoming days. “We continue to prioritize the safety of people and the environment and will be working safely according to weather conditions,” TC Energy said in its latest update. “Recovery rates have the potential to slow due to the upcoming weather,” the company added. In the update, TC Energy revealed that, as of December 20, 5pm CT, it had recovered an estimated 15,488 barrels of oil and water from the incident site in Washington County, Kansas. The company also stated that it had removed the impacted pipeline segment and sent it to an independent lab for metallurgical testing, as directed by the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA). “The affected segment of the Keystone Pipeline System remains safely isolated as investigation, recovery, repair and remediation continue to advance,” TC Energy said in the update. “This segment will not be restarted until it is safe to do so and when we have regulatory approval from PHMSA. We will continue to provide updates as information becomes available,” the company added. Extremely cold arctic air is expected to plunge southward and impact much of the U.S. through Hanukkah and into the week of Christmas, according to NOAA forecasters. “Temperatures 40 degrees below average and dangerous life-threatening wind chills as low as 50 degrees below zero are possible in the northern Rockies and northern Plains,” NOAA said in a statement posted on its website on Wednesday. “Sub-zero to single-digit temperatures are likely across the central Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midsouth … Well below freezing temperatures will extend into the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and as far south as the Gulf Coast through the holiday weekend,” NOAA added. In a market note sent to Rigzone on Wednesday, Rystad Energy Analyst Nikoline Bromander warned that the central U.S. region could experience a Polar vortex this week, which Bromander said “could break regional temperature records”.

Storm cuts U.S. oil, gas, power output, sending prices higher (Reuters) - Frigid cold and blowing winds on Friday knocked out power and cut energy production across the United States, driving up heating and electricity prices as people prepared for holiday celebrations.Winter Storm Elliott brought sub-freezing temperatures and extreme weather alerts to about two-thirds of the United States, with cold and snow in some areas to linger through the Christmas holiday.More than 1.5 million homes and businesses lost power, oil refineries in Texas cut gasoline and diesel production on equipment failures, and heating and power prices surged on the losses. Oil and gas output from North Dakota to Texas suffered freeze-ins, cutting supplies.Some 1.5 million barrels of daily refining capacity along the U.S. Gulf Coast was shut due to the bitterly cold temperatures. The production losses are not expected to last, but they have lifted fuel prices.Knocked out were TotalEnergies, Motiva Enterprises. and Marathon Petroleum facilities outside Houston. Cold weather also disrupted Exxon Mobil,  LyondellBasell, and Valero Energy plants in Texas that produce gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Sempra Infrastructure's Cameron LNG plant in Louisiana said weather disrupted its production of liquefied natural gas without providing details. Crews at the 12 million tonne-per-year facility were trying to restore output, it said. Freeze-ins - in which ice crystals halt oil and gas production - this week trimmed production in North Dakota's oilfields by 300,000 to 350,000 barrels per day, or a third of normal. In Texas's Permian oilfield, the freeze led to more gas being withdrawn than was injected, said El Paso Natural Gas operator Kinder Morgan Inc. U.S. benchmark oil prices on Friday jumped 2.4% to $79.56, and next-day gas in west Texas jumped 22% to around $9 per million British thermal units , the highest since the state's 2021 deep freeze. Power prices on Texas's grid also spiked to $3,700 per megawatt hour, prompting generators to add more power to the grid before prices fell back as thermal and solar supplies came online.  New England's bulk power supplier said it expected to have enough to supply demand, but elsewhere strong winds led to outages largely in the Southeast and Midwest; North Carolina counted more than 187,000 without power.  Gas output dropped about 6.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) over the past four days to a preliminary nine-month low of 92.4 bcfd on Friday as wells froze in Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and elsewhere. That is the biggest drop in output since the February 2021 freeze knocked out power for millions in Texas. One billion cubic feet is enough gas to supply about 5 million U.S. homes for a day.

U.S. poised to become net exporter of crude oil in 2023 (Reuters) - The United States has become a global crude oil exporting power over the last few years, but exports have not exceeded its imports since World War II. That could change next year. Sales of U.S. crude to other nations are now a record 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd), with exports of about 3 million bpd of refined products like gasoline and diesel fuel. The United States is also the leading liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, where growth is expected to soar in coming years. But the United States consumes 20 million barrels of crude a day, the most in the world, and its output has never exceeded 13 million bpd. Until recently, the idea that it would be anything but a big crude importer was folly. Last month, U.S. government data showed net U.S. crude oil imports fell to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest since record keeping began in 2001. That is down sharply from five years ago, when the United States imported more than 7 million barrels per day. Factors changing that equation this year include sanctions hurting Russia's exports of oil and natural gas following its invasion of Ukraine, and Washington's massive release of oil from emergency reserves to combat spiking gasoline prices. "Russia's invasion of Ukraine has spurred new demand for U.S. energy and should push oil exports above imports late next year assuming shale output accelerates," said Rohit Rathod, market analyst at energy researcher Vortexa. To become a net exporter of crude, the United States needs either to boost production or curtail consumption. U.S. petroleum demand is expected to rise 0.7% to 20.51 million bpd next year, so that means production would have to rise.The United States already produces more oil than any other country in the world including Saudi Arabia and Russia. U.S. shale fields are aging and production growth this year has been sluggish. Overall output should reach a record 12.34 million bpd next year - but only if prices are lucrative enough to encourage oil drillers to pump more. European refiners have snapped up U.S. grades to offset the loss of Russian oil, and with U.S. crude's deeper discounts to global benchmarks, Asian refiners have stepped up purchases to 1.75 million barrels per day, data analytics firm Kpler said.

US Buying Oil For Strategic Petroleum Reserve | Rigzone - The U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Petroleum Reserves has announced that it will start repurchasing crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This repurchase is an opportunity to secure a good deal for American taxpayers by repurchasing oil at a lower price than the $96 per barrel average price it was sold for, as well as to strengthen energy security. In October, President Biden announced a plan to replenish the SPR using updated authorities that allow for fixed-price purchases of crude oil. Relative to conventional purchase contracts that expose producers to volatile crude prices, this new approach, when used at scale, can give producers the assurance to make investments today, knowing that the price they receive when they sell to the SPR will be locked in place. Today’s notice will pilot this new approach by starting with a purchase of up to 3 million barrels of crude oil. “This initial step to fulfilling the President’s replenishment strategy follows his historic release from the SPR to address the significant global supply disruption caused by Putin’s war on Ukraine and provide a wartime bridge for domestic production to increase.” “The releases have helped lower gas prices for American families. National retail gas prices are now the cheapest since September 2021 and are down by over $1.80 per gallon since their peak in June 2022,” the DOE stated. DOE must receive bids for this notice no later than 10:00 a.m. Central Time on Wednesday, December 28, 2022. Contracts will be awarded to successful offerors no later than Friday, January 13, 2023, with deliveries to the Big Hill SPR site in Beaumont, Texas to occur in February 2023. The SPR is the world's largest supply of emergency crude oil, and the federally-owned oil stocks are stored in underground salt caverns at four storage sites in Texas and Louisiana. The SPR has a long history of protecting the economy and American livelihoods in times of emergency oil shortages.

New US Bill Could Halt Sale Of 140Mn Barrels Of SPR Crude - A new bipartisan spending bill could cancel the congressional mandates to sell 140 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the next five years. The $1.7 trillion bill would cancel most congressionally mandated crude sales through fiscal year 2027. The change would align with the Presidents’ plan to begin refilling the SPR next year, replacing some of the 180 million barrels of crude Biden sold this year through emergency sales in response to Russia's war in Ukraine. The bill will redirect around $10.4 billion generated from the emergency sales to offset the estimated future revenue from the crude sales that would be canceled. It would also avoid refilling the SPR and selling it at the same time just because of congressional mandates. The US Congress in prior years ordered the sale of 147 million barrels of crude from the SPR in fiscal years 2024-27 to raise revenue for debt reduction, infrastructure, and other priorities. The new bill would cancel all those sales, except for 7 million barrels that the US would sell in fiscal years 2026-27. The emergency drawdown of 180 million barrels of crude from the SPR was as a good deal for taxpayers as it brought down fuel prices this year. The SPR crude barrel was sold at an average price of $96 per barrel. The new spending bill shows the crude sales being canceled only if needed to raise $74.25 per barrel to comply with budgetary rules, indicating a paper profit of $22 per barrel from the emergency sales. It is worth noting that the bill would not cancel a congressionally mandated sale of 26 million barrel of SPR crude that is required to occur by the end of this fiscal year on September 30. The measure would also keep intact previously enacted sales of 92.6 million barrels of SPR crude scheduled for fiscal years 2028-31. The partial refilling of the SPR was started last week by soliciting bids for the fixed-price purchase of 3 million barrels of sour crude, for delivery in February. The administration said it may buy up to 60 million barrels of crude with fixed price contracts at a targeted price of $67-72 per barrel, which it says will give the US producers more certainty now to invest in domestic production. Congress needs to pass the omnibus spending bill by today (Friday) to prevent a partial US government shutdown.

Joe Biden, Oil Trader of the Year 2022? - Of all people, Joe's got the magic touch with petroleum? The endless number of foiled speculators attests to the difficulty of realizing the old adage about how to make money--buy low, sell high. Let's face it: ever-changing markets often result in us doing quite the opposite, and not making money in the process. Now, whenever we are asked to think about who are the least savvy market participants, we often identify governments--or more specifically, government officials. Not being keen market watchers with limited skin in the game--it's taxpayer money they are officially dealing with, not theirs--this sentiment is understandable.  Well lo and behold: Quartz is now touting President Joe Biden's timely release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as the "oil trade of the year." In retrospect, his release at the near-top of the oil market a few months ago helped ease oil prices. Now that oil prices have come down quite a bit, the SPR is now being refilled. Yes, Biden is buying low after selling high: Instead, it appears the US government made the oil trade of the year: Releasing 180 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve between March and the end of this year in an effort to blunt the effect of rising prices, the US government appears to have made about $4 billion, as prices have fallen dramatically over the course of the year.Selling when crude oil prices were high, the US captured billions in value. By one widely-used measure, the price of crude oil in Texas peaked at about $124 a barrel in March, and the average price during the SPR sales period was about $96; today that oil costs just $73 per barrel. These are paper profits, to be sure: The US is still aiming to refill the reserve, and prices may rise as it does so. On Dec. 16, the Department of Energy put out a request to purchase 3 million new barrels of crude, after releasing about 200 million barrels in 2022. There are currently about 382 million barrels still in reserve. His genial manner has caused Joe Biden to be underestimated throughout his life. Can he now be called a market player as well in his eighth decade? T. Boone Pickens, eat your heart out.

Natural Gas Users Brace for Complications as Cold Hits Texas -- Memories of Winter Storm Uri were fresh on the minds of natural gas buyers in Mexico as a cold front raced south through the United States and down into Texas. Mexico’s power grid operator Cenace warned that up to 9,000 MW of natural gas-fired power could be under stress due to limited natural gas supply. The cold was also expected to hit the northern Mexico states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas by as early as Thursday night. “We’re worried, but we can’t do much since we don’t have any gas storage,” a natural gas buyer in Mexico City said. The source added that the welcome news was that the upcoming Christmas holidays were a time of lower industrial and residential demand. Also welcome is the prediction from analysts that the storm won’t be as bad as Uri, which sent natural gas prices skyrocketing and led to severe limitations in natural gas supply to Mexico. At one stage during that February 2021 storm, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott ordered that Texas stop supplying gas outside of state lines. Mexico sources the vast majority of its natural gas needs from Texas. On Thursday, Mexico imported a lower than usual figure of 4.452 Bcf of natural gas via pipeline from the United States, according to NGI calculations. This figure does not include non-public Texas intrastate trades. Of the total gas flows into Mexico, 3.878 Bcf came from South Texas. “We do not expect a repeat of Uri’s production impacts and associated outages of gas-fired power plants,” Wood Mackenzie analysts Colette Breshears and Eric Fell said Wednesday. “This is partially due to weatherization effects” and “partially from the nature of the storm (this year promises to be extremely cold, yet dry and fast to pass through).” On Thursday afternoon, NatGasWeather said, “There’s potential for minor impacts to the electricity grid” but “the duration will be much shorter than what occurred in Feb. 2021, so we do not expect a repeat of the massive grid failure seen back then.” Still, Cenace put into place an operational emergency alert and asked system participants to put into place contingency plans. U.S. production was already being impacted. After starting the week at around 99 Bcf/d, it dropped to around 96 Bcf/d by Thursday with further declines possible, according to Wood Mackenzie.

Big Oil Pours Billions In The Permian Basin - A couple of months ago, U.S. President Joe Biden urged energy companies to stop ‘war profiteering’ and even threatened to slap them with windfall tax if they failed to invest their profits in lowering costs for Americans and increasing production. The calls came at a time when Big Oil has been posting record profits amid high commodity and energy prices. The majority of energy companies have avoided spending big to expand production in the aftermath of the 2020 oil crisis, prioritizing returning more cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. Well, Biden might not fully get his wish but there are signs that companies are willing to spend more in the coming year(s) even as a raft of energy companies have announced major spending and capex hikes.And few places have captured the attention of Big Oil more than the Permian Basin. Some of the basin’s largest oil and gas producers have unveiled plans to ramp up extraction operations and investments in the region next year as production was forecast to increase despite oil prices projected to dip due to an impending global recession. ExxonMobil Corp.has not announced a drastic increase in spending, but has said that its capital spending for 2023 will be closer to the top end of its annual target of $20B-$25B, a level it expects to maintain through 2027. The company said more than 70% of its capital investments will be deployed in the U.S. Permian Basin, Guyana, Brazil and LNG projects across the globe. These investments will help increase the company's upstream production by 500K boe/day to 4.2M boe/day by 2027 with half of that expected to come from the high return regions in the Permian Basin and other high-return regions. Exxon also unveiled plans to boost spending on lower emission projects by 15% through 2027 to ~$17B through 2027. Exxon’s peer Chevron Corp. announced on Wednesday that FY 2023 capital spending budget will clock in at $17B, at the top end of its $15B-$17B medium-term range and up more than 25% from expected spending in 2022. The company said that upstream capex includes more than $4B for Permian Basin development; ~$2B for other shale and tight assets and ~$2B to go into projects that lower carbon emissions or increase renewable fuels production capacity, more than double the 2022 budget. Although Chevron’s spending for 2023 will be considerably higher than capital spending in the 2020-21 pandemic years, it’s still much lower than the $30B annual average of the 2012-19 period. Overall, more and more energy companies are opening up to the idea of increasing spending and production..

5.4 quake jolts West Texas, one of state's strongest ever (AP) — One of the strongest earthquakes in Texas history struck Friday evening in a western region of the state that's home to oil and fracking activity. There were no immediate reports of damage or injuries. The U.S. Geological Survey said the temblor had a magnitude of 5.4 and struck at 5:35 p.m., local time. It was centered about 14 miles (22 kilometers) north-northwest of Midland, with a depth of about 5.6 miles (9 kilometers). The agency had previously issued a preliminary magnitude of 5.3 before updating it. In the interim, the National Weather Service's office in Midland tweeted that it “would be the 4th strongest earthquake in Texas state history!” Geophysicist Jana Pursley at the USGS's National Earthquake Information Center in Colorado said that according to early reports received by the agency, the quake was felt by more than 1,500 people over a large distance from Amarillo and Abilene in Texas to as far west as Carlsbad, New Mexico. “It’s a sizable earthquake for that region," Pursley said, adding, “In that region such an event will be felt for a couple of hundred miles.” "I haven’t received any information about damages but it can crack stucco or driveways close to epicenter,” she added. A quake of similar magnitude struck West Texas a month ago. That Nov. 16 temblor was measured at 5.3 and had an epicenter about 95 miles (153 kilometers) west of Midland. The quake was followed shortly after by a less-intense aftershock, and Pursley said there could be more going forward with declining magnitude.

Magnitude 5.4 Quake Hits Texas A magnitude 5.4 earthquake occurred around 14 miles north-northwest of Midland, Texas, on December 16, the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program has revealed. The quake occurred as the result of shallow normal faulting, according to the USGS, which noted that the region surrounding the earthquake is seismically active. “Since 2018 about 120 earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 and larger have struck within 50km of the recent quake,” the USGS said in an organization statement. “Larger earthquakes have struck in the broader area. A M5.4 earthquake struck on November 16, 2022, about 200km to the west and a M5.0 occurred on March 26, 2020, also about 200km to the west of the December 16, 2022, earthquake,” the USGS added. “On Aug 1, 1975, a magnitude 4.8 earthquake occurred approximately 200km to the west-southwest of this recent earthquake; however, a detailed history of small (less than magnitude 3) earthquakes in this region is not well know because the region was not well covered by seismometers until recent years,” the USGS continued. Over the past two decades the central and eastern United States has experienced an increase in the occurrence of earthquakes, according to the USGS, which noted that scientific studies have linked much of this increase to human activity, “predominantly wastewater injection into deep disposal wells”. The Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) announced that it had activated personnel Friday evening in response to the quake and said it will take any necessary actions to protect public safety and the environment.  Agency personnel are continuing to closely monitor seismic data from the United States Geological Survey, the TexNET Seismic Monitoring Program and private operator monitoring stations. RRC staff will continue its work to keep residents and the environment safe,” the RRC continued. Commenting on the incident, Todd Staples, the president of the Texas Oil & Gas Association (TXOGA), said, “industry operators continue to cooperate with the RRC in response to the recent activity in the Gardendale Seismic Response Area (SRA)”. “The RRC inspection of injection well sites in the area is appropriate and should inform, along with industry data, the best next steps forward and direct actions beyond currently adopted protocols. Reducing injection volumes, targeted shut-in of injection wells, expanding the size of the SRA, and comprehensive data collection and analysis are all available tools. Scientific data confirms that some continued seismicity activity often occurs after an event like the one that occurred Friday evening,” Staples added. “In addition, the industry and academia continue to explore alternatives to wastewater injection through market based water reuse and recycling as well as innovative pilot programs and collaboration with the Produced Water Consortium led by Texas Tech University, which was established by the 87th Texas Legislature,” Staples continued.

5.4 quake jolts oil-producing West Texas as locals blame 'fracking' for 4th strongest tremor in state A moderate earthquake occurred in Western Texas on Friday, December 16. The United States Geological Survey explained that the magnitude 5.4 quake occurred around 5.30 pm, was located 12.5 miles north-northwest of Midland and Odessa, and had a depth of 5.09 miles. It has already been called the fourth strongest earthquake in the state’s history by local meteorologists. The tremors were felt by residents in Roswell as well. This is the second time in two months that the state has been hit by a significant quake and people are blaming it on the ongoing Texas fracking..A reporter in Odessa for CBS 7, Joshua Skinner, reported, "Big earthquake in Odessa, TX. Happened around 5:36 p.m. The whole news studio shook for a solid 10 seconds." As reported by USGS, "The earthquake occurred within the interior of the North America plate, far from any tectonic plate boundaries, and is therefore considered an intraplate earthquake." The statement further reads, "Since 2018 about 120 earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 and larger have struck within 50 km of the recent quake. Larger earthquakes have struck in the broader area." No injuries were reported so far. The state was struck by a massive 5.4-magnitude quake only last month.One startled resident reacted to the quake and wrote, "We have felt a few of the smaller ones but this one really shook the house. Power went out for a few minutes only." Another person who connected the quake to the ongoing fracking in the state wrote, "Could this be due to fracking in the state? I hope there aren't any injuries or fatalities due to this earthquake." One more person said,  One person who really felt the quake wrote, "Wow that earthquake! We could hear it coming, like some train from hell before it hit the house. It was the most violent and prolonged shaking that I've experienced here in West Texas. 5.3, at 2km depth. Fracking has a cost. All that crap goes somewhere & effs up the water table." Another person wrote, "Oh hell no!! We just had another major earthquake in the Odessa / West Texas area. I hate this!!! Screw you fracking oil companies!!! This never happened before until you b*****ds started doing this!!!" One person claimed that the quake "sounded like rumbling" and said, "Felt here in North East Texas, sounded like rumbling and a little shaking on my 2nd story Apt building." Another person blamed the constant fracking and quipped, "There was an earthquake in my part of Texas, where (surprise!) a ton of fracking occurs. Our state continues to delve into Mad Max shit"

Permian quake spurs industry review of fracking waste disposal - -- The shale industry is open to reducing underground storage of drilling waste and other measures to reduce earthquake risks after a 5.4-magnitude temblor rattled the Permian Basin.The Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates the state’s massive oil and natural gas industry, is probing disposal of saltwater left over from fracking, which occurs in the Permian region of West Texas and New Mexico more than anywhere in the world.  Quakes have been reported across Texas and Oklahoma for years in relation to the disposal of drilling wastewater in rocks close to fault lines. In response to Friday evening’s quake, the Texas Oil and Gas Association said that “reducing injection volumes” and “targeted shut-in of injection wells” are among “available tools” to reduce risks.

Fracking Waste Gets a Second Look to Ease Looming West Texas Water Shortage - Fracked wells in West Texas don’t just produce petroleum. Much more than anything else, they spit up salty, mucky water. Typically, companies have discarded that fluid, hundreds of millions of gallons per day, by injecting it back underground, occasionally causing small earthquakes. But as water becomes more scarce, they’re beginning to reconsider. For now, hydraulic fracturing in arid West Texas uses large amounts of fresh aquifer water to crack open subterranean shales, unleashing a mixture of oil, gas and fossil brine 10 times as salty as the sea. Increasingly, frackers are starting to reuse that brine, easing their burden on aquifers. “We’ve just month by month seen extraordinary growth in the volumes we are managing,” said Matthew Gabriel, CEO of XRI Holdings, which recycles oilfield wastewater in the Permian Basin, the nation’s top oil-producing region. This month, XRI announced a 230-mile expansion to its existing 450-mile Permian pipeline network. Unlike other Permian pipelines, these carry water from oilfields to treatment plants and back, linking the major oil producers’ batteries of tanks. XRI, based in Houston, is also adding three more treatment plants to its existing 30. Fracking doesn’t require particularly clean water and the treatment to prepare it is pretty simple, Gabriel said. It’s the pipeline network that makes it economical, providing the equivalent of oilfield plumbing to replace the laborious process of trucking in water and trucking out waste. “You open a valve and you can have all the water you need,” Gabriel said. “I think we’re going to see enormous advances around this concept in the coming years.” XRI currently manages 1 million barrels of wastewater per day and recycles 800,000 — a small portion of the total volume produced by Permian Basin oil fields. Recently, Texas convened water experts for a state-funded study of recycling that so-called “produced water,” the term for wastewater from oil wells. Released this year, the Texas Produced Water Consortium report estimated Permian Basin wastewater production at approximately 11 million barrels, or 462 million gallons, per day in 2019, the last year of available data. Since then the figure has likely increased in step with soaring Permian oil and gas output. In response to a survey by the Texas consortium, fracking companies on average said they were already reusing about 30% of their wastewater. Even if they satisfied 100% of their need with recycled water, they would still have millions of barrels of produced water left over every day. Underground disposal remained a much cheaper option than reuse, it said, but might not be so for long. “Scarcity conditions,” the 130-page report said, “will eventually make this an economically viable option.”

Companies Flag Labor Issues in Oil and Gas - Finding and keeping qualified workers was the greatest challenge for companies in 2022, according to an American Petroleum Institute (API) reader poll highlighted in a newsletter published recently by the organization. The response received 52.95 percent of the votes in the poll, with ‘regulations and government policies’ receiving 23.52 percent, ‘fluctuations in price, supply and demand’ receiving 17.65 percent and ‘storage or shipment of oil and natural gas’ receiving 5.88 percent. The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey, which was released at the end of September, also highlighted labor issues. In a section showcasing comments from respondents’ completed surveys, which were edited for publication, one exploration and production company noted that “the labor issue will provide a restraint on any major increase in oil and gas production for the domestic market”. “The biggest challenge for us is adding employees,” another E&P company outlined, according to the Energy Survey. “We are trying to add qualified staff, with little success, and that will negatively impact growth,” the company added. One company in the oil and gas support services sector noted that “meeting demand has been hampered by the availability of qualified people to work and, more importantly, whether they stay working in the oilfield,” the Survey highlighted. “We are seeing a greater percentage of hires, who are new to the industry as of last quarter, with many wanting regular hours and a work/life balance not typical of hourly employees in oilfield services,” the company added. Another company in the oil and gas support services sector said, “we continue to struggle to hire drivers with a commercial driver’s license that have oilfield experience, as well as skilled crew labor for construction and maintenance”, the Survey showed. Earlier this year, Hunter Kornfeind, the leader of Rapidan Energy Group’s U.S. crude production forecasting and analysis, told Rigzone that labor availability was tight and in short supply following the downturn due to Covid and said the U.S. oil and gas industry was not immune from those macro challenges.

Colorado to form ozone-reduction group that will consider new rules on fracking - Denver Business Journal - A stakeholder group will tackle new ozone-cutting strategies after miscalculations complicate getting EPA backing for the state's existing plan. Colorado will explore creating new limits for air pollution emissions made by oil and gas drilling and fracking after determining the state has undercounted emissions in plans meant to bring northern Front Range ozone levels into compliance with federal health standards. The state’s Air Quality Control Commission, in fashioning an ozone-reduction submittal to the Environmental Protection Agency this week, voted to call a stakeholder group together in 2023 to find strategies for cutting emissions of ozone precursor chemicals in the hope of meeting pollution standards the region has violated for years. Environmental activists and some local governments had wanted the state plan submitted to the EPA to clamp down on emissions from oil drilling and fracking now, while oil industry representatives argued to the AQCC that the oil industry has done more to slash emissions in recent years than any other. The AQCC, to the disappointment of some activists and some of its own commissioners, voted to submit an incomplete plan to the EPA and to form the stakeholder group to identify new ozone-control strategies. The decision likely would be received as kicking the can down the road, said Elise Jones, an AQCC commissioner who expressed frustration that effective ozone pollution controls have eluded state planners. “We need to do more, because we are failing collectively on this issue,” she said. Ozone is created when volatile organic compounds, nitrogen oxides and other air pollutants cook in warm sunlight. Breathing high levels of ozone can exacerbate asthma and other respiratory conditions and jeopardize human health. The Denver metro area and northern Front Range of Colorado have violated summertime air quality rules set in 2008 for what ozone levels are considered healthy under the federal Clean Air Act. Those standards were lowered in 2015. Ozone levels in the EPA-defined “non-attainment area” continue to violate standards, and the region has averaged high-ozone alerts on about 30 days each summer in recent years. The EPA downgraded the region from being “serious” to “severe” ozone violator, requiring the state to update its ozone plan. The AQCC, a volunteer commission that steers statewide air quality policy, met for three days this week to vote on ozone-reduction plans Colorado will submit for EPA review by March. The mistakes on nitrogen oxide emissions from oil preproduction prompted the group to pull sections of its federally-required plans from the submission. That’s likely to trigger an EPA finding that the plan is incomplete and start a clock ticking for Colorado to modify its plan. Air quality activists and local governments have criticized the state’s plan as inadequate because, even before the oil and gas preproduction miscalculations were discovered, what the state planned to propose to the EPA would get the region’s air to meet ozone standards before 2027 at the earliest. Clean air advocates and local government officials concerned about their constituents' health had urged air quality officials this week to do more in the ozone plan submission, and oil and gas was singled out by many of the activists as the leading industry to target. They argued for rules limiting emissions of nitrogen oxides from fossil-fuel-powered drilling rigs and the engines use in hydraulically fracturing underground shale to release oil and gas, a process known as ‘fracking.’ The engines used in traditional drilling rigs and fracking engines are regulated by EPA under non-roadway engine standards, but the emissions of oil and gas drilling and fracking aren’t specifically addressed by Colorado’s ozone-reduction planning. That became significant in recent weeks when local government and activist groups called out the state’s ozone plan for undercounting such emissions. This fall, the state’s Air Pollution Control Division staff recalculated its nitrogen oxide emissions totals used in the plan after observers realized oil and gas companies’ drilling project applications to the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission had been forecasting that drilling and fracking for those wells would create higher preproduction nitrogen oxide emissions than the per-well emissions factors the state uses in its ozone plan modeling. The state had undercounted oil and gas preproduction emissions by about 11%, the APCD staff concluded. That realization prompted the removal of several parts of the state’s ozone plan being submitted to the EPA so the stakeholder group next year could come up with new strategies and a more effective plan be resubmitted. Deciding to delay taking steps to cut nitrogen oxide emissions and set up a stakeholder group wasn’t an acceptable response from state air pollution officials, argued Caitlin Miller, an Earth Justice lawyer, testifying to the AQCC. “It’s a request by the division to be left off the hook for failing to living up to its obligations yet again,” Miller said. Oil and gas industry representatives participating in the ozone-reduction plan hearings this week said oil companies will enthusiastically contribute to the stakeholder discussions but said the effort to find new ozone control strategies shouldn’t single the oil industry out given the heavy regulation it already faces and how much it has cut ozone-related emissions in recent years. “The goal should be to find ways to reduce ozone, not to target oil and gas,” said Chris Colclasure, a lawyer with Denver-based Beatty and Wozniak representing oil and gas industry groups. The state’s own data from ozone monitoring stations show oil and gas production-related ozone below car travel and other sources in the foothills areas most often exceeding EPA ozone standards — monitors near Interstate 70 in Golden, at the Rocky Flats former nuclear weapons site and in Larimer County, all of which are miles from the Weld County oil fields where most wells are drilled. Other industries or pollution sources should be looked at too, Colclasure argued, and strategies, such as electrifying two-stroke, gas-powered lawn and garden equipment, could do more to reduce ozone that targeting oil and gas. Emissions of ozone-causing pollutants generally have been falling over the past decade as current ozone reduction strategies took effect, according to studies by the Regional Air Quality Council, a metro-area agency organized by local governments in the ozone non-attainment area. The long-term trends show lower ozone levels generally than there used to be, even though the northern Front Range remains out of compliance with EPA standards set in 2008 and lowered in 2015.

Merkley, Wyden sound alarm on 'fossil gas' pipeline expansion: 'Not in the public's best interest' – KTVZ -  - Sens. Jeff Merkley and Ron Wyden, D-Ore., sent a letter to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chairman Richard Glick and FERC commissioners, urging them to listen to the Oregon Attorney General and deny permits for TC Energy’s Gas Transmission Northwest Xpress project. “In order to reach a net-zero emissions economy by 2050, President Biden pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52% by 2030, below 2005 levels,” wrote Merkley and Wyden. “According to FERCs FEIS, the project would emit 2.3 million metric tons of Carbon Dioxide equivalent emissions each year, until at least 2052. Your FEIS predicts the project will cause nine billion dollars in climate-related damage over the next 28 years. And that’s with a methodology that systematically minimizes the pipeline’s climate impacts. Adding new emissions through pipeline expansions like the GTN Xpress is incompatible with President Biden’s pledge.” In their letter, sent Friday, the senators highlight how Oregon has enacted policies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions—moving away from fossil gas—including investing in renewable energy. These policies show how renewable alternatives can meet energy demands without the climate and safety risks caused by fossil fuels. “The GTN Xpress would risk the safety of frontline communities and the planet for a project that isn’t necessary,” they write. “FERC itself said in its Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) that it cannot determine the end use for the 51,000 Dth/d that Tourmaline Marketing Corp has subscribed for, a clear indication that demand for the project is uncertain. Adding fossil gas infrastructure in a region that is rapidly transitioning to renewable energy risks sticking ratepayers with the costs of an underutilized project and it isn’t in the public interest.” Merkley and Wyden’s letter continues by urging the FERC chairman and commissioners to listen to Oregon when it says the GTN Xpress is incompatible with climate objectives, highlighting how moving forward would not be in the public’s interest.

Environmentalists sue to stop U.S. oil and gas auction off Alaska coast (Reuters) - Environmental groups sued the Biden administration on Wednesday to block a sale of oil and gas drilling rights off the coast of Alaska that is scheduled for next week.The legal action, filed in federal court in Alaska, comes as the Interior Department is preparing to offer nearly 1 million acres in the Cook Inlet on Dec. 30. The sale was among the concessions to the oil and gas sector included in President Joe Biden's climate change law, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).Under the law, the administration is required to hold the sale by Dec. 31. Interior had scrapped the Cook Inlet sale this year before the IRA passed, citing a lack of industry interest. An Interior Department spokesperson declined to comment on the lawsuit. The groups suing the administration are Cook Inletkeeper, Alaska Community Action on Toxics, Center for Biological Diversity, Kachemak Bay Conservation Society and Natural Resources Defense Council.

Biden Administration Sued To Prevent Alaskan Cook Inlet Sale - Environmental groups filed a legal challenge today to stop the U.S. Department of Interior’s lease sale in Cook Inlet, Alaska. Lease Sale 258, scheduled for December 30, would auction off nearly a million acres of federal waters in Alaska, opening the door to decades of future oil-and-gas drilling. The Center for Biological Diversity and Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) filed the lawsuit together with Earthjustice, which represents the Cook Inletkeeper, the Kachemak Bay Conservation Society, and the Alaska Community Action on Toxics. Cook Inlet is home to beluga whales and sea otters protected under the Endangered Species Act. It also supports thriving subsistence, commercial, and recreational fisheries, and a multi-faceted tourist industry, fed by visitors from around the world who are drawn by the region’s unparalleled natural beauty. In a mutual statement, the groups reminded that the Cook Inlet was also previously hit by catastrophic oil spills like the infamous Exxon Valdez disaster more than 30 years ago. The groups stated that the government’s environmental analysis predicted a 1 in 5 chance of a large oil spill occurring from a Cook Inlet lease sale. The Department of Interior canceled the sale last May, but then announced it would move ahead after the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. Though that legislation spurred unprecedented efforts to address climate change, it included a provision reviving this lease sale and mandating that it happen before the end of the year. Despite this requirement, the Interior retains full discretion as to how to conduct the sale. Under the legislation, the Interior has the discretion to restrict the amount of offshore acreage put up for lease, limit allowable activity on leased acreage, establish timetables for drilling activity on a leased area, and take other measures to limit harm. The groups claim that the Interior took no steps to limit oil-and-gas drilling and rejected alternatives that would result in a much smaller lease area. “Numerous scientific analyses have determined that the U.S. will not successfully slash greenhouse-gas emissions to meet its own established climate targets if it continues green-lighting new onshore and offshore oil-and-gas development on federal lands and waters,” the statement claimed. Today’s lawsuit argues that approval of the Cook Inlet lease sale violated the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and should be vacated. Even under the new IRA requirements, the Interior must nevertheless adhere to NEPA’s requirements for the public process when considering the leasing decision. “The permitting agency violated NEPA by failing to meaningfully account for climate impacts or consider alternatives that would have resulted in less harm to the climate, marine life, and surrounding communities. Interior has also fallen short on keeping the public adequately informed, by failing to fully respond to public comments,” the groups said. “Our coastal communities have stood up repeatedly to say ‘no’ to oil and gas leasing in Lower Cook Inlet. This is our home, not a sacrifice zone. There would be little to gain in terms of affordable energy and much to lose in habitat, tourism, fisheries, and beauty. Lower Cook Inlet is worth far more — both in economic and cultural senses of value — intact and protected than with oil platforms and pipelines,” said Taylor Kendal Smith, communications director for Cook Inletkeeper “The Biden administration could have done so much more to limit the damage of the Inflation Reduction Act’s lease sale provision in Cook Inlet. Instead, during a climate and biodiversity crisis, it's offering a huge swath of the ocean, nearly a million acres, to fossil fuel bidders. This sale threatens irreplaceable waters and wildlife with oil spills and takes us backward in addressing the climate crisis. We’re going to court to force the administration to comply with our bedrock environmental laws, reconsider this mistake, and act consistently with its climate and biodiversity commitments. The Inflation Reduction Act should not prevent the administration from making the right choices to protect future generations,”

ConocoPhillips (COP) Says More US Cuts to Alaska Plan Would Kill Project - The head of ConocoPhillips’s Alaska operations signaled the company would walk away from an $8 billion oil project in the Arctic if the US government forced it to further scale down drilling to just two locations, saying that would no longer be economically viable. The warning comes as pressure intensifies on President Joe Biden to block the proposed Willow project in Alaska from environmentalists who say the warming world can’t afford to burn the estimated 600 million barrels of crude it could yield.

House Committee Wraps Up Historic Investigation Into Oil Industry - Congressional investigators released a new set of documents that underscored the oil and gas industry’s ongoing attempts to block climate policies and confuse the public about their long-term investments in fossil fuels. The latest tranche of documents caps off a nearly two-year investigation that appears set to come to an end with Republicans taking control of the House of Representatives in January. On December 9, the U.S. House Oversight and Reform Committee published its latest set of documents as part of its ongoing investigation into the oil industry’s history of climate denial and obfuscation. The documents offer more evidence showing that the industry’s “greenwashing” continues up to the present day. “They’re basically saying, ‘we’re going to increase production, we’re going to increase emissions, but we’re also going to be able to claim being this clean tech company, this green company, because we can take some symbolic actions that make it look like we’re in the climate fight,’” Rep. Ro Khanna, (D-CA), a member of the committee, told NBC News.“The cynicism was breathtaking, and unfortunately, it was quite successful,” he said, “It’s been a successful PR strategy.” The framing over the role of methane gas offers one glaring example. For years, the industry and its supporters have claimed that methane gas serves as a “bridge fuel” due to its perceived climate benefit over burning coal. That claim has not been backed up by the science, which increasingly shows that methane leaks can erase the upside of gas compared to coal. But even if true, internal communications show that despite their external claims, oil executives view gas not as a temporary “bridge,” but as something more permanent.  Another revelation points to the oil industry’s efforts to cultivate influence through its financial support for Ivy League universities. In a 2019 email from former BP vice president Bob Stout, in which he discusses BP’s efforts at “nurturing” its relationship with Princeton University, he admits that ties with major American universities is part of a strategy of burnishing the industry’s image and also enhancing its influence.DeSmog has previously reported on the oil industry’s attempts to push its agenda through Ivy League universities. And a podcast collaboration between Drilled and Earther explored how oil companies have long been influencing American education for corporate benefit, from elementary schools to universities like Harvard. The latest release adds even more explicit evidence of an intentional strategy.

Big oil is behind conspiracy to deceive public, first climate racketeering lawsuit says -  The same racketeering legislation used to bring down mob bosses, motorcycle gangs, football executives and international fraudsters is to be tested against oil and coal companies who are accused of conspiring to deceive the public over the climate crisis. In an ambitious move, an attempt will be made to hold the fossil fuel industry accountable for “decades of deception” in a lawsuit being brought by communities in Puerto Rico that were devastated by Hurricane Maria in 2017. “Puerto Rico is one of the most affected places by climate change in the world. It is so precariously positioned – they get hit on all fronts with hurricanes, storm surge, heat, coral bleaching – it’s the perfect place for this climate litigation,” said Melissa Sims, senior counsel for the plaintiffs’ law firm Milberg. The 1970 Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (Rico) Act was originally intended to combat criminal enterprises like the mafia, but has since been used in civil courts to litigate harms caused by opioids, vehicle emissions and even e-cigarettes as organised crime cases. Now, the first-ever climate change Rico case alleges that international oil and coal companies, their trade associations, and a network of paid thinktanks, scientists and other operatives conspired to deceive the public – specifically residents of Puerto Rico – about the direct link between their greenhouse gas-emitting products and climate change. This fossil fuel enterprise, which remains operational according to the lawsuit, resulted in multitude of damages caused by climate disasters that were foreseen – but hidden – by the defendants in order to maximise profits. The plaintiffs are 16 municipalities in Puerto Rico – towns and cities that were hit hard by two powerful hurricanes in September 2017, Irma and Maria – which led to thousands of deaths, food shortages, widespread infrastructure damage and the longest blackout in US history.

'People from the sacrifice zone': Doctors call for moratorium on B.C. fracking as residents living near gas fields report health issues - --A group of doctors is calling for a moratorium on hydraulic fracking in British Columbia, citing reports from nearby residents the industry is deteriorating their mental and physical health. Their evidence is outlined in a report issued Wednesday from the Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment (CAPE), which surveyed dozens of people living near gas fields in the province’s Peace region, last spring. “We call them people from the sacrifice zone,” said Dr. Larry Barzelai, a Vancouver family doctor and assistant professor in the University of British Columbia’s Faculty of Medicine.“Their lives are challenging. They’re producing the food and the natural gas for the rest of us. People should know what they’re dealing with," said Barzelai, who pointed to studies — mostly from the U.S. — demonstrating people living near fracking operations face increased rates of childhood leukaemia, low birth weights and congenital birth defects.Glacier Media requested comment from several of the largest producers of hydraulically fracked gas in B.C., but has yet to receive a response. Meanwhile, the BC Oil and Gas Commission deferred comment to the B.C. government and a spokesperson for B.C.'s Ministry of Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation declined to immediately comment on the report's findings, saying it was still reviewing the document.

Regulator Lays Charges Against Suncor Over 2019 Worker Incident - The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (CNLOPB) laid charges against Suncor Energy in relation to alleged offenses related to an injury onboard the Terra Nova FPSO. It is worth reminding that on December 29, 2019, a worker on the Terra Nova FPSO was injured after falling from a ladder while conducting gas testing. An offshore medic and emergency response team were called to the scene. The injured worker was medevaced to St. John’s on Sunday evening and is currently receiving medical care in the hospital. At the time of the incident, production-related operations on the Terra Nova FPSO were suspended as it was determined that Suncor was not compliant with requirements regarding maintaining and comprehensively inspecting equipment critical in the safe operation of the installation. The task being undertaken at the time the worker was injured was safety-focused and was not included in the scope of suspended activity. CNLOPB said that the charges against Suncor were laid on December 15, 2022. It said that, in relation to the incident, Suncor failed to produce a signed written report that complied with relevant regulations, committing an offence. The company also didn’t ensure that every employee entering into, exiting from, and occupying a confined space wore a safety harness that was securely attached to a lifeline, that was attached to a secure anchor outside the confined space, contrary to regulations, committing an offense. Also, on or about December 29, 2019, at or near the Terra Nova FPSO, located in the offshore area off the Coast of Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, Suncor did not ensure that every employee entering into, exiting from, and occupying a confined space followed the procedures and used the protection equipment as required by regulations, committing an offense.

Mechanical Issues Force Noble To Evacuate Workers Off Rig - Offshore driller Noble Corporation has evacuated all personnel from one of its jack-up rigs after an issue was discovered on one of the rig’s legs. Noble said late last Friday that the jack-up rig Noble Regina Allen experienced a mechanical issue on Thursday, December 15, while preparing to move from its location approximately 26 miles off the coast of Trinidad. According to the company, a technical failure in the jacking gear appears to have caused damage to the bow leg braces and joints, preventing the rig from being able to fully retract one of its legs. With the structural integrity of the leg compromised, all rig personnel have been evacuated after confirming watertight integrity. It is worth noting that the rig completed all well operations before the event occurred and thus the well is secure. Noble is working closely with our customer and local authorities in response to the incident. Data in the driller’s fleet status report indicates that the Noble Regina Allen has been working for an undisclosed operator in Trinidad and Tobago since August 2022. This contract, scheduled to end in September 2023, is for six firm wells plus three two-well options with a day rate of $107,000. The jack-up rig is of the Friede & Goldman JU3000N design. It was constructed at Jurong Shipyard and can accommodate 150 people. With a drilling depth capability of 35,000 feet, this rig is capable of operating in water depths of up to 400 feet.

North Sea Regulator Fines 3 Companies -- The North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) has announced that three operators have been fined a total of $322,201 (GBP 265,000). The move comes as the NSTA “cracks down on behavior that risks the industry’s drive to cut emissions and bolster the UK’s energy security”, the organization outlined. EnQuest has been fined $182,378 (GBP 150,000) for flaring an excess 262 tons of gas on the Magnus Field between November 30 and December 1, 2021, “despite knowing that it did not have the necessary consent in place”, the NSTA noted. Equinor was fined $79,030 (GBP 65,000) for flaring at least 348 tons of CO2 above the amount permitted on the Barnacle Field between June and November 2020 and Spirit Energy was fined $60,792 (GBP 50,000) for exceeding the maximum allowed production volumes from two fields over three years, the NSTA revealed. The organization said producing too much oil and gas can reduce the overall long-term production from a reservoir, to the detriment of the UK’s security of supply, “so it is vital that when an operator wants to raise production it applies for a new consent so that its new plan can be assessed”. The NSTA also pointed out that operators such as EnQuest and Equinor must follow a clear process to apply for consent to flare or vent gas. “The NSTA is committed to supporting the UK’s energy security and lowering greenhouse gas emissions, including through the use of our robust consenting procedures, which drive down flaring and venting,” Jane de Lozey, the NSTA’s Director of Regulation, said in an organization statement. “We are encouraged by recent improvements on emissions and will take action to ensure this vital work is not undermined by companies who fail to meet their obligations,” de Lozey added in the statement. The NSTA noted that EnQuest, Equinor and Spirit Energy all cooperated fully with the NSTA’s investigations, conducted their own internal reviews and have taken steps to avoid repeats of these breaches. Rigzone contacted all three companies for comment on the NSTA fines. “The fine relates to an administrative breach on the cross-border Barnacle field,” an Equinor spokesperson told Rigzone. “Barnacle is developed with a single well drilled from the Statfjord B platform on the Norwegian side of the median line. Any flaring from the field therefore happens and is accounted for in Norwegian waters,” the spokesperson added. A spokesperson from EnQuest told Rigzone, “EnQuest can confirm it has been sanctioned by the North Sea Transition Authority for a breach of flaring consent that occurred on the group’s Magnus asset in November 2021”. The company also conducted its own internal review to determine the cause of the failure and to prevent any future failure to comply,” the spokesperson added. “Notwithstanding the above, EnQuest accepts the NSTA’s sanction and will meet its obligations to pay the financial penalty as required by the regulator,” A Spirit Energy spokesperson said, “Spirit Energy is committed to operating in a socially and environmentally responsible way and takes any non-compliance in this regard seriously”.

NSTA names and shames as North Sea operators Equinor, EnQuest and Spirit hit with £265,000 fines - The North Sea’s oil and gas regulator has fined a trio of operators as it vows to “crack down” on behaviour that undermines energy security and transition.Operators EnQuest, Spirit Energy and Equinor were handed the penalties for issues linked to historic emissions violations and over-production. EnQuest was slapped with what is believed to be the largest fine issued by the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) to date, and must now stump up £150,000 for flaring an excess 262 tonnes of gas on its Magnus field. The activity, which occurred between 30 November and 1 December 2021, was conducted despite EnQuest knowing it did not have the necessary consent in place, the regulator stated. Norway’s Equinor was fined by the NSTA £65,000 for flaring at least 348 tonnes of CO2 above the amount permitted on its Barnacle Field between June and November 2020 – though notably the regulator made clear was an “administrative” issue.  Equinor uses an allocation model to measure flaring volumes for the Barnacle Field, which straddles the UK/Norwegian border, as output from the field is mixed with oil and gas from other assets and processed on the Statfjord B platform in Norwegian waters.  A spokesperson for Equinor added: “In 2020, Equinor became aware that it needed to log flaring allocations in the UK, in addition to Norway. The flaring on Statfjord was within Norwegian permits, but technically, the field was operating outside the UK flaring consent for a period of four months due to the missing logs. The NSTA acknowledged this was in essence “an administrative breach”, but  nonetheless found the operator to have contravened its UK flare consent over the four months in question. In addition, Spirit Energy was fined £50,000 for exceeding its maximum allowed production volumes from two fields over a period of three years – the Rhyl field between 2018-20 and Ceres between 2019-20.

Strikes Underway At BP And Repsol North Sea Platforms -Unite, the UK’s largest industrial union, has informed that over 240 Petrofac workers posted on Repsol and BP offshore installations would be going on strike over two separate disputes. Unite said that around 170 members working for Petrofac are taking 48-hour strike action on Repsol installations offshore from today, December 22. The action follows workers rejecting the latest pay offer from the company by 79 percent on an 89 percent turnout in an increasingly bitter dispute over pay and working terms, which has seen previous rounds of industrial action. The installations impacted include the Arbroath, Auk, Bleo Holm, Claymore, Clyde, Fulmar Alpha, Piper Bravo, Saltire, Tartan Alpha as well as the Flotta oil terminal. Unite also confirmed that a further 48-hour strike will impact the Montrose platform starting on December 29 – 31. The dispute centers on the removal of a 10 percent Equal Time payment, years of below inflationary pay increases as well as issues around payments for Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) medicals, mileage, and stand-in duties. “Petrofac Repsol workers across the various installations are taking this latest action due to a series of unacceptable pay offers. Unite’s members are watching offshore oil and gas giants mount up eye-watering profits. Instead of paying the workforce what they deserve because they are the ones ultimately generating these profits Petrofac Repsol are reveling in playing Scrooge. Unite supports and will continue to support our members at Petrofac for as long as it takes for them to achieve a successful resolution,” Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said. In a separate dispute, Unite members at Petrofac’s BP installations: Andrew, Clair, Clair Ridge, ETAP, and the Glen Lyon FPSO will also begin 48-hour strike action on December 29 – 31. The Petrofac BP dispute centers on the working rotation, which is currently a work 3 on/3 off rotation. This action involves 76 members. Unite anticipates that the strike action by Petrofac workers at both Repsol and BP facilities are likely to cause considerable disruption and the trade union has warned that further action is being actively considered which would extend the dispute into 2023. “Unite’s members have been left with no choice but to take further strike action due to the indifference and intransigence shown by Petrofac management. Several rounds of 48-hour strike action will now take place following our members rejecting the latest pay offer which represents real terms pay cut.”

Evidence In Nord Stream Sabotage Doesn't Point To Russia: Washington Post - A surprising admission has come in a Washington Post report Wednesday morning following a months-long investigation into the Sept. 26 Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipeline sabotage attacks. While there remains consensus that the explosions were indeed the result of a deliberate act of sabotage, numerous officials in the West now say the evidence is not pointing to Russia. WaPo begins by recounting the frenzied rush to immediately blame Moscow, which began within a mere hours into the massive gas leaks into the Baltic Sea: After explosions in late September severely damaged undersea pipelines built to carry natural gas from Russia to Europe, world leaders quickly blamed Moscow for a brazen and dangerous act of sabotage. With winter approaching, it appeared the Kremlin intended to strangle the flow of energy to millions across the continent, an act of "blackmail," some leaders said, designed to threaten countries into withdrawing their financial and military support for Ukraine. And then comes this admission: "But now, after months of investigation, numerous officials privately say that Russia may not be to blame after all for the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines." The Post issued the rare about-face of accusations after interviewing a total of 23 diplomatic and intelligence officials in nine countries who have been privy to the international investigation into the sabotage incident which has threatened European energy supplies going into winter. "There is no evidence at this point that Russia was behind the sabotage," one European official is quoted as saying. Further, the report indicated, "Some went so far as to say they didn’t think Russia was responsible. Others who still consider Russia a prime suspect said positively attributing the attack — to any country — may be impossible." Among other prime suspects and theories, typically echoed in independent and alternative media, is that the United States is to blame. At least one UN official and prominent economist shocked a Bloomberg panel in suggesting this in early October...

Fire Detected Onboard Prelude FLNG Facility -- A Shell spokesperson has confirmed to Rigzone that a fire was detected onboard the Prelude Floating Liquid Natural Gas (FLNG) facility offshore Australia. “On Wednesday 21 December at 16:25 AWST, there was a small fire detected onboard Prelude in a turbine enclosure,” the Shell spokesperson told Rigzone. “The fire was quickly contained using a hand-held extinguisher and the area made safe. There were no injuries and all workers on the facility are safe and accounted for,” the spokesperson added. “Production has been temporarily suspended and an investigation into the cause of the incident is underway. We will work methodically through the stages in the process to recommence production with safety and stability foremost in mind,” the spokesperson continued, adding that the regulator had been informed. Prelude FLNG produces natural gas off the coast of Australia in the Browse Basin. The facility has a production capacity of at least 5.3 million tons per annum of liquids - comprising 3.6 mtpa of LNG, 1.3 mtpa of condensate and 0.4 mtpa of liquefied petroleum gas – according to Shell’s website, which highlights that the facility is 488 meters long and 74 meters wide. Prelude FLNG has been designed to remain moored for at least 25 years, Shell’s site points out. Back in June 2019, Shell announced that the first shipment of LNG had sailed from Prelude FLNG. The shipment was delivered by the Valencia Knutsen to customers in Asia, Shell revealed at the time. In May 2011, Shell announced final investment decision on Prelude FLNG. In a company statement at the time, Shell described the project as “groundbreaking”.

Bloomberg Describes Europe’s Severe and Sustained Energy Crisis Due to Loss of Russian Gas - Yves Smith - For some time, this site has predicted the inevitability of a European economic crisis due to the loss of cheap Russian gas and the delay and much higher cost in securing replacement energy sources, primarily LNG. Mainstream press coverage, likely reflecting European leadership’s “kick the can” reflexes, has touted that Europe has decent odds of having its stored Russian gas (along with other sources, like wind and nuclear power) carry Europe through the winter. And in fairness, gas prices in Europe have dropped since late summer peaks: But looking at current and near term price expectations ignores the cost at which this relief has been achieved, namely, deindustrailization. Energy-intensive businesses, from aluminum, glass, chemical, and paper makers to greenhouse operators are cutting back, suspending, or even shuttering operations. Even with energy subsidies in place, many households are cutting back because they can’t afford the higher prices. Needless to say, budget-squeezed consumers are a further drag on business activity. Germany and the UK have been particularly noisy in warning citizens about possible rolling blackouts over the winter. We weren’t alone in warning about the prospect of continued hardship. From Forbes back in September:   With natural gas prices over $100 more per megawatt hour than they were a year ago, the Western European economies are heading to the Middle Ages. Forests are being cut for firewood as Russia retaliates with its own Ukraine war sanctions by shutting off the trickle of natural gas it was still piping into Europe….Corporate investment goes where money goes farthest. It used to be taxes and labor and environmental costs they looked at. Now European companies will add electricity to the mix. None of this bodes well for European businesses….   Given that the short-term relief in European gas prices means a lot of people who know better will nevertheless try not to think much about Europe’s sorry prospects, Bloomberg surprisingly published a blunt, fact-filled assessment: From Bloomberg:   After this winter, the region will have to refill gas reserves with little to no deliveries from Russia, intensifying competition for tankers of the fuel. Even with more facilities to import liquefied natural gas coming online, the market is expected to remain tight until 2026….  While governments were able to help companies and consumers absorb much of the blow with more than $700 billion in aid, according to the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, a state of emergency could last for years. With interest rates rising and economies likely already in recession, the support that cushioned the blow for millions of households and businesses is looking increasingly unaffordable…And the EU has competition: Chinese gas imports are likely to be 7% higher in 2023 than this year, according to China National Offshore Oil Corp.’s Energy Economics Institute. The state-owned company has started securing LNG supplies for next year, putting it in direct competition with Europe for spare shipments. China’s historic drop in demand this year was equivalent to about 5% of global supply.China isn’t Europe’s only problem. Other Asian countries are moving to procure more gas. Japan, the world’s top LNG importer this year, is even considering setting up a strategic reserve, with the government also looking to subsidize purchases.  Now Europe may get lucky. China dropping Zero Covid looks to be hurting its workforce even more than Zero Covid did. That is likely to lead to yet more supply chain disruption and lower demand within China, both of which will dampen demand for LNG and therefore hopefully alleviate price pressure. Europe may get lucky with the weather, both temperature and wind generation. But even if it limps through the winter, it will still have a structural problem in 2023 even in warmer weather. Electricity won’t get to be cheap enough to bring back those energy-hogging businesses. The loss of jobs and industrial demand will eat into tax revenues, making energy subsidies even more costly in budget terms. Demand for social services will rise..  

Mild Christmas and New Year to Ease Europe Power Grid Stress - Mild weather is expected to remain over most of Europe during the holidays, dimming the chances of a white Christmas but easing pressure on the region’s power grids. Temperatures in Paris and Frankfurt are expected to be around 7 degrees Celsius warmer than seasonal norms on Friday, Maxar Technologies Inc. said in a report. The mild weather is expected to stay through the first week of January, it said. That outlook will ease pressure on Europe’s energy systems, which were strained earlier this month by the first cold blast of winter. European natural gas prices fell for a fifth day, while the region’s gas storage remains 83% full. Demand for power and gas typically drops during the holiday period with most offices and businesses shut. A total of 71.4 heating-degree days are expected for Dec. 27 until Dec. 31, below the 10-year average of 76.4 days, Maxar said. German wind output is expected to peak at 15,093 megawatts at midnight on Friday, compared with a high of 19,442 megawatts at 11 a.m. on Thursday, according to Bloomberg model and EEX data. Further north, the Nordics will stay icy with the potential for snow. The temperature in Oslo on Christmas Eve could be 11 degrees Celsius below the seasonal average, according to Maxar.

The EU agreed to limit gas prices, but some analysts are skeptical -  The European Union Monday concluded two months of heated talks over how to protect households from rising energy prices — but some analysts argue the bloc’s solution is unsustainable and might not withstand the realities of a 2023 gas supply crunch.  EU members compromised by adopting a “dynamic” cap on the price that can be bid for front-month gas contracts on Europe’s benchmark trading facility. The level at which the cap is triggered was lowered to 180 euros per megawatt hour, after an initial proposal of 275 euros per megawatt hour was criticized as far too high by countries including Poland, Spain and Greece. The 180 euro limit must be surpassed for three working days on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), and it must be 35 euros per megawatt above the global reference price for liquefied natural gas over the same period. Several conditions were inserted to allay the concerns of members such as Germany, which had argued that the scheme could result in gas shortages next year. These clauses prompt an automatic suspension of the cap and include the dynamic bidding rate dropping below 180 euros per megawatt hour for three consecutive working days, or the European Commission declaring an emergency. Germany eventually voted in favor of the so-called “market correction mechanism,” but the Netherlands and Austria abstained. Austria’s ministry for climate action said in a Tuesday statement that while it was “confident that the market correction mechanism can play an important role to avoid extreme spikes in European gas prices, the last minute extension of the mechanism on more gas hubs than the TTF does issue some concerns.” The ministry noted that “there are some risks that the necessary safeguards are undermined by this extension.” Austria depends on Russian gas. Rob Jetten, Dutch energy minister, said that the mechanism remained “unsafe” despite the latest improvements. He flagged that it could disrupt the European energy market, risk security of supply and have wider financial implications. “From its inception, we have been very clear about this mechanism: it does not solve the core problem,” he said, adding that the Netherlands’ concerns were shared by the European Central Bank and by ICE (Intercontinental Exchange), the operator of the key natural-gas market in Europe. The ECB earlier this month said “the current design of the proposed market correction mechanism may, in some circumstances, jeopardize financial stability in the euro area.” It declined to provide further comment to CNBC following the EU announcement. ICE said in a statement it had “consistently voiced concerns” about the destabilizing impact of a price cap. It added that it would now review the details of the EU announcement to see whether it “can continue to operate fair and orderly markets for TTF from the Netherlands as per our European regulatory obligations.”

Russia reports explosion in pipeline supplying gas to Europe –   --- An explosion blew through a pipeline bringing gas from Russia to Europe, killing three people and disrupting gas flows, Russian media reported.The blast in the Urengoi-Pomary-Uzhhorod pipeline — which enters Ukraine via the cross-border metering point Sudzha — was announced by local authorities in the small central Russian village of Kalinino at 11:44 a.m.  The resulting gas flare has since been extinguished, according to local officials, and gas flows through a section of the pipeline have been halted. Roughly 43 million cubic meters of natural gas had been flowing to Europe via Sudzha — the only point at which gas is still transiting from Russia to Ukraine — on a daily basis. The pipeline became the main artery for Moscow's gas to enter Europe following the explosions that damaged the Nord Stream pipeline in September; Western officials said the blasts were the result of sabotage.    Russia's Gazprom said it would continue to provide natural gas to affected consumers through parallel pipelines. Russian authorities said they are opening a case to investigate any potential "violation of industrial safety requirements" at the site of the blast, where they said repair work was being carried out at the time of the explosion. One person was also injured in the blast.Day-ahead futures on Europe's gas trading benchmark, the Dutch TTF, rose to €‎114 per megawatt-hour at midday following news of the explosion — €‎11 higher than the previous hour.

Three killed in Russian gas pipeline explosion during repairs - Three workers were killed in an explosion at a Russian pipeline that was being repaired. The incident occurred Tuesday at the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhhorod pipeline in the Chuvashia region in central Russia. In addition to the deaths, another worker was injured. The blast caused a fireball of burning gas to rise. Export supplies were not effected by the explosion as they were re-routed to different lines, Gazprom officials said. The pipeline, which starts in Siberia before traveling through Ukraine, is one of the main natural gas suppliers to the European Union. Oleg Nikolayev, the governor of Chuvashia, said it was unclear how long repairs to the impacted area would take but noted the fire was extinguished quickly. In September, the Nord 1 and Nord 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea were damaged in an explosion believed to have been an act of sabotage, though it is not known who is responsible.

Explosion tears through Russian gas pipeline during repairs - An explosion during repairs on a section of a Europe-bound natural gas pipeline in western Russia has killed three people but didn't affect export supplies, officials said. The explosion on Tuesday ripped through a section of the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhhorod pipeline in the Chuvashia region during repair work. Three repair workers were killed and one was injured by the blast, which sent a huge plume of burning gas skyward, regional authorities said. The pipeline that originates at a gas field in Siberia and crosses Ukraine along its way to Europe is one of the main routes for Russian gas exports to the EU. Chuvashia's governor, Oleg Nikolayev, said in televised remarks that it wasn't immediately clear how long it would take to fix the section of the pipeline cut by the explosion. The regional branch of Russia's state-controlled natural gas giant, Gazprom, said volumes of gas transportation weren't affected by the blast as supplies were rerouted along parallel lines. The pipeline crossing Ukraine has become the main conduit for Russian natural gas supplies to Europe since an explosion ripped through the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipeline under the Baltic Sea in September, causing extensive damage.

Deadly Blast Destroys Russia-Ukraine Gas Export Pipeline - A gas pipeline in central Russia that brings gas from Russia's Arctic through Ukraine to Europe has been shut following a huge blast that ripped through and left three people dead and one injured, Reuters cited local officials and TASS news agency as reporting. According to the Chuvashia regional Emergencies Ministry, the pipeline blew up during planned maintenance work near the village of Kalinino, about 150 km (90 miles) west of the Volga city of Kazan. The resulting gas flare has been extinguished, with local officials reporting that the flow of gas through the section of the Urengoi-Pomary-Uzhhorod pipeline was cut off around 1050 GMT, Tass reported.Later on Tuesday morning, a local unit of Gazprom said in a statement carried by Reuters that gas was being diverted to parallel pipelines as a result of the explosion  Built in the 1980s, the pipeline enters Ukraine via the Sudzha metering point, and currently is the main route for Russian gas to reach Europe. State-owned gas producer Gazprom and its local branch has, however, failed to respond to requests for comment.  Europe probably won’t lose too much sleep over it though. Gazprom had earlier revealed that it expected to pump 43 million cubic meters of gas to Europe via Ukraine through Sudzha in the next 24 hours, a volume in line with recent days.  To put that number in context, that run rate represents just 5.4% of the 155 billion cubic meters of natural gas that Europe imported from Russia in 2021. Europe has managed to stockpile huge volumes of natural gas for the winter season, so much so that prices have tumbled sharply in recent months.Whereas supplies of Russian pipeline gas--the bulk of Europe’s gas imports before the Ukraine war--are down to a trickle, Europe has been hungrily scooping up Russian LNG in the meantime. The Wall Street Journal has reported that the bloc’s imports of Russian liquefied natural gas jumped by 41% Y/Y in the year through August.

Volumes Transiting Ukraine Are At Risk - Volumes transiting Ukraine are at risk, with a potential upward impact on prices, according to a new gas and LNG market note from Rystad Energy Analyst Nikoline Bromander. In the note, Bromander revealed that a section of the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod (UPU) gas pipeline in Chuvashia, Russia, was damaged by an explosion on December 20 during repair work and said it is currently blocked on both sides. “The UPU pipeline is a part of Russia’s ‘Brotherhood’ pipeline network and is used to send gas to continental Europe,” Bromander said in the note, which was sent to Rigzone. “Mikhail Faleyev, former deputy head of Russia’s ministry for emergencies, has been quoted in RIA as saying that the damaged section is expected to be restored within a few days,” Bromander added. “If this doesn’t happen, gas could be re-directed from the UPU pipeline to one of four other pipelines that run alongside it with a total capacity of 100 billion cubic meters. However, it is hard to quantify precisely how much gas could be redirected in this way,” the analyst continued. Bromander outlined that if Russian flows through Ukraine were to halt entirely, “this would put upward pressure on gas prices in Europe, as the volumes represent around four percent of Europe’s total annual gas demand”. “Countries directly importing gas from the Ukrainian transit and connecting pipelines would also face consequences, including Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Austria, Germany, France, Switzerland, Slovenia, Croatia and Italy,” Bromander said, adding that all these countries have sufficient volumes of natural gas in storage. Russian flows through Ukraine have held steady at around 43 million cubic meters per day (MMcmd), with Russian flows through the TurkStream pipeline also stable at 35 MMcmd, the Rystad analyst highlighted in the note.

Russian Ally Mulls More Gas Links to Diversify Supply | Rigzone – Serbia is considering building more gas links with nearby countries to reduce dependence on Russian flows and turn it into a regional transit hub. The former Yugoslav republic is already building an interconnector with Bulgaria — due to be completed next year — which will enable imports from Central Asia and liquefied natural gas terminals on the Mediterranean. It’s now also looking at adding a link to North Macedonia and maybe Albania, the energy and mining minister said. The nation is balancing a bid to join the European Union while refraining from embracing sanctions against its traditional ally Moscow. At the same time, the government is joining international efforts to diversify energy supplies from Russia, with whom it gets almost all its gas from. “We don’t have enough of our own resources, at least when it comes to gas, but everything that can reduce dependence on Russia in the gas segment is important for us,” Energy and Mining Minister Dubravka Djedovic said in an interview. “We’re talking about hundreds of millions of euros” in projects to bring fuel from places like Azerbaijan and connect with terminals in Greece, she said. An EU grant is paying for half of the 93 million-euro ($99 million) cost of building the interconnector with Bulgaria, and Serbia is looking for more support from the bloc for additional cross-border pipes that could turn it into an important transit route. A link between Serbia and North Macedonia — estimated at 80 million euros — is at a preparation stage, said Djedovic, who joined the government in October. One to Albania depends on that country’s progress in developing a planned LNG terminal on its Adriatic coast. “Once we enable the connections to streams that are coming from alternative sources, we will be less dependent on Russian” flows, she said, outlining plans for an eventual connection to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, which links to the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline. Still, Serbia’s deep ties with Russia’s Gazprom PJSC should continue, the minister said. Gazprom sells Serbia fuel through an extension of the TurkStream pipeline at below-market rates. Plus, a Gazprom unit co-owns Serbia’s Banatski Dvor gas-storage facility and its oil arm Gazprom Neft operates Serbia’s sole refiner, NIS. In the oil market, an EU ban on Russian crude has disrupted deliveries to refiner NIS, whose only one viable supply route is through a pipe in Croatia. While the refiner has been processing mostly non-Russian oil since before the war in Ukraine, the government is still looking at adding more options, such as new links.

Exxon Avoiding Tankers That Previously Transported Russian Oil - Exxon Mobil Corp. is avoiding hiring oil tankers that previously carried cargoes from Russia, putting itself in the same camp as Shell Plc with a move that pressures owners to choose whether to serve Moscow’s interests or not. The largest oil company in the US began asking that, from Dec. 5, shipowners must ensure the tankers on lease to Exxon haven’t carried crude cargoes which are either Russian, originated in Russia, or come from a person connected with Russia, a clause seen by Bloomberg shows. Failure to do so would allow Exxon to terminate the charter. A spokeswoman for Exxon declined to comment. The approach is similar to that of Shell, whose first preference is for ships that haven’t carried Russian crude in their last three cargoes. Moves by such big firms only increase the pressure on owners to choose between serving Russian and non-Russian interests. Shipping firms intending to transport the nation’s barrels can already only get industry standard insurance and an array of other G-7 services if the cargoes they’re hauling cost $60 a barrel or less. The measures included a clause that if companies pay above $60 then they can’t access key EU services for the transportation of Russian cargoes for 90 days. The Exxon clause doesn’t apply to Kazakhstan’s CPC oil, so long as the seller isn’t Russian or connected with Russia, and a Kazakh certificate of origin is received. Exxon’s mandate expands from Feb. 5, 2023 to Russian oil products, with the same exception as above. That’s when further G-7 sanctions will kick in, affecting refined fuel markets. The Group of Seven’s measures have triggered the emergence of a so-called dark fleet of tankers that are expected to be dedicated to servicing Russia’s interests. Moves like Exxon’s and Shell’s make it harder for those vessels to return to non-Russian business.

Russia's Baltic Oil Exports Could Fall by 20% Due To Sanctions - Exports of Russia's flagship Urals crude blend from the Baltic Sea ports will probably fall to around 5 million tonnes this month from 6 million tonnes in November, thanks to an EU embargo on Russian oil and a Western price cap, according to Reuters calculations. Some estimates have predicted it could fall as low as 4.7 million tonnes. The $60 per barrel price cap introduced by the European Union, G7 nations and Australia allows non-EU countries to import seaborne Russian crude oil, but prohibits shipping, insurance and reinsurance companies from handling cargoes of Russian crude unless it is sold for under $60. Traders have reported to Reuters that Russia is struggling to fully redirect Urals exports from Europe to other markets such as China and India India and is also having a hard time finding enough suitable vessels. Russia’s problems have been compounded by a shortage of non-western tonnage, moderate demand for the grade in Asia, especially in China and a weak export economy. Indeed, Reuters has reported that Russia’s pipeline monopoly Transneft has been unable to fill some of the available loading slots due to a lack of bids from producers while other slots were postponed or canceled. Only China, India, Bulgaria and Turkey are currently willing to buy Urals with the blend now being sold to export markets at below overall production cost including local levies. Citi’s Global Head of Commodities Research Ed Morse has dismissed the price cap, terming it as silly, impractical and unlikely to work in tight gas markets because gas markets are global and not bifurcated into individual countries, meaning the forces of demand and supply are more likely to prevail in determining gas prices. As such, Morse says the price cap is likely to lead to gas shortages in Europe especially during winter months when demand is high. Further, the commodity analyst says that getting rid of the TTF natural gas benchmark is likely to cause chaos when determining gas prices especially if other existing benchmarks lack sufficient liquidity.

Russia Says It May Cut Daily Oil Output by 700K Barrels - Russia may reduce its oil output by 500,000-700,000 barrels a day in early 2023 in response to the Group of Seven’s price cap on the nation’s crude exports, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. “We are ready to partially cut our production early next year,” he said in an interview with Rossiya-24 TV channel, adding the volumes equate to roughly 5%-6% of what Russia’s now pumping. “We’ll try to find some common ground with our counterparts to prevent such risks,” Novak said. “But right now we’d rather take a risk of a production cut than stick to the policy of selling in line with the threshold.” While he described the potential output declines as “insignificant,” a cut of that size could still tighten the global oil market at a time when many analysts predict demand in China will be rebounding. Novak, Moscow’s main negotiator at OPEC+ and the key governmental energy official, reiterated that Russia will not sell its crude to buyers and nations that use the western price cap. Russian producers are able to reroute their exports to competing markets, including Asia, as the nation’s energy is still in high demand globally, he said. Oil prices have jumped in the past two weeks and climbed further on Friday, with Brent trading at almost $82 a barrel. President Vladimir Putin told reporters on Thursday he will sign a decree on the nation’s response to the cap on Monday or Tuesday. It will feature “preventive measures,” he said, without elaborating. Russia’s full-year oil production this year will probably grow to 535 million tons, according to Novak. That’s equivalent to around 10.74 million barrels per day, based on a 7.33 barrel-per-ton ratio. Russia’s average daily output in November reached an eight-month high of 10.9 million barrels, according to industry data seen by Bloomberg. The G7 and European Union’s $60-per-barrel cap on Russian seaborne crude supplies began on Dec. 5. That move and a ban on EU imports of seaborne Russian flows, regardless of the price, were designed to curb the Kremlin’s oil revenues and hinder its ability to fight in Ukraine. Russian oil cargoes that are traded above the threshold cannot access some key services from western companies, including insurance.

Germany Pivot to Piped Kazakh Oil Looks Like Pipe Dream - Germany is days from halting piped oil imports from Russia, creating pressure to find alternatives. The nation’s economy ministry in Berlin confirmed on Tuesday that Germany won’t be buying Russian oil at all in 2023, reaffirming a pledge to halt by the end of this year. The step is to punish the Kremlin for the war in Ukraine. One emerging idea is to use Russia’s pipeline system to import from Kazakhstan instead. There’s even talk of a test shipment early next year. Germany, along with most of the European Union, already has a ban on seaborne deliveries from Russia. But getting piped supplies of Kazakh crude thousands of miles to refineries in eastern Germany would present huge challenges on multiple fronts. The first is that the pipelines through which the oil would have to flow are Russian — the giant Druzhba network. As such, any decision to facilitate such shipments can only be made by Moscow. So far, Russia’s oil-pipeline operator Transneft PJSC hasn’t received any request from Kazakhstan to deliver to Germany, according to company’s spokesman Igor Dyomin. Some Kazakh barrels are already pumped northward to Almetyevsk in Russia and mixed with oil from Russian fields into a common export grade, officially known as Russian Export Blend Crude Oil, or REBCO, which is more often referred to as Urals. Physically shipping Kazakh crude to Germany without any Russian oil in it is unlikely to be feasible. It would require volumes to be sent in batches to avoid mixing it with molecules of Russian origin. That would be hugely disruptive to the Russian pipeline network and it’s hard to see Transneft supporting the idea. Even if it did, such an approach would see German refineries receiving untested crude grade with characteristics that may be very different from those of their normal diet of Urals, which has tight parameters on density and sulfur content. In practice, though, if shipments do end up getting made, they mightn’t end up being actual Kazakh-origin supplies. Kazakhstan’s KMG Trading, a subsidiary of state oil company KazMunayGas JSC, puts 13 million tons a year into the Russian pipeline system and is allocated an equivalent amount of Urals that it can then sell internationally. The Urals cargoes belonging to KMG have been specifically excluded from EU sanctions on seaborne imports from Russia and have been re-labeled Kazakh Export Blend Crude Oil, or KEBCO, to distinguish them from REBCO. Those cargoes are lifted from the ports of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea and Ust-Luga on the Baltic. They are entirely separate from Kazakhstan’s CPC Blend exports that get loaded onto tankers at a dedicated terminal near Novorossiysk. But even if Russia agrees to some kind of swap, the question is: where would Kazakhstan find the extra crude to put into the Russian pipeline system in order to direct more to eastern Germany. That’s because KazMunayGas must first supply refineries in Kazakhstan to fulfill its obligations on fuel supply to the domestic market. When it comes to exports, the first priority — through KMG Trading — is to meet the needs of the firm’s refinery in Romania. Remaining volumes are sold under long-term contracts, according to KazMunayGas. Kazakhstan can’t redirect the KEBCO it exports via Ust-Luga port without breaking those contracts for 2023 supplies, leaving next to nothing to spare for Germany. So once the domestic market is supplied, and Romania is served, it’s unclear where Kazakhstan could find additional volumes for Germany. And that’s assuming Russia plays ball.

Oil Refiners: Japan sounds out oil refiners on buying Russian oil from Sakhalin - Japan is sounding out major oil refiners about buying Russian ultra light crude from the Sakhalin-2 gas and oil project to ensure that the plant can continue to operate smoothly, two sources with direct knowledge of the talks said.The Sakhalin Island complex, partly owned by Gazprom and Japanese companies, is vital to Japan's energy security as it accounts for 9% of the country's liquefied natural gas imports. ..The government's move signals a potential restart of Russian oil imports by Japan for the first time since June. This is not likely to upset its allies in Group of Seven (G7) as they have agreed to exempt the Sakhalin-2 oil from a price cap placed on Russian crude exports this month.

China boosted crude oil storage even as refiners processed more - China’s loosening of its strict zero-COVID restrictions is widely being viewed as bullish for crude demand. But there are other factors in the world’s largest oil importer that give pause. One is that China is continuing to build crude oil stockpiles, even though its refinery processing rates have risen strongly in recent months. China’s refinery throughput rose to the equivalent of 14.51 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, a one-year high and up from 14.22 million bpd in October, according to official data released on Thursday. On the surface this feels like a strong outcome that is positive for crude oil demand, especially when other indicators such as rail freight, and air and road traffic are also moving higher. But despite the solid gain in refinery processing, it appears that China is still building up crude oil inventories in commercial or strategic storage tanks. China doesn’t disclose the volumes of crude flowing into or out of strategic and commercial stockpiles, but an estimate can be made by deducting the amount of crude processed from the total of crude available from imports and domestic output. The total volume of crude available from imports and domestic production in November was 15.46 million bpd, consisting of imports of 11.37 million bpd and local output of 4.08 million bpd. This means the volume of crude available exceeded the amount processed by 950,000 bpd, which was up from 420,00 bpd in October. Over the first 11 months of 2022 the volume of crude going into inventories was around 700,000 bpd. China has had more crude available than the amount processed in 10 of the 11 months so far in 2022, which is somewhat surprising given crude prices surged after Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. What is likely is that in recent months, Chinese refiners have been buying up Russian crude on the cheap and ahead of any loss of supplies from the Group of Seven nations cap on the price of Russia crude. Certainly, Russian shipments to China have been strong in recent months, with the country taking over the title of biggest supplier from Saudi Arabia. China imported an estimated 1.80 million bpd from Russia in November, according to Refinitiv Oil Research, exceeding the 1.69 million bpd supplied by Saudi Arabia. Chinese refiners have also been exporting more refined fuels, especially diesel, having been granted additional quotas in order to take advantage of high regional prices for the transport and industrial fuel.

Rising supply from Kuwait, Russia to weigh on Asia fuel oil in 2023 -- Asia is expected to be flooded with more fuel oil supplies in 2023 as Kuwait's new Al-Zour refinery ramps up output and as Russia diverts record volumes from Europe to the East ahead of sanctions. Higher supplies are expected to weigh on Asia's fuel oil prices and refiners' margins next year amid steady demand from the ship fuelling and power generation sectors. The 615,000 barrels-per-day Al Zour refinery, which started exporting products in November, is poised to be a major supplier of very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), commonly used for ship refuelling, known as bunkering.

Saudi Aramco and Sinopec sign initial agreement to set up refinery in China -  Leading crude oil exporter Saudi Aramco and China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) have signed an initial agreement to build a refinery and a petrochemicals plant in China. The 320,000 barrels-per-day refinery and 1.5 million tonnes-per-year petrochemical cracker complex will be in operation by the end of 2025, Aramco said in a statement on Sunday.Aramco and Sinopec, along with Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic), have also signed a preliminary agreement to study the feasibility of developing a petrochemicals complex to be integrated with an existing refinery in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia.“These projects represent an opportunity to contribute to a modern, efficient and integrated downstream sector in both China and Saudi Arabia,” Mohammed Al Qahtani, Aramco's senior vice president of downstream, said.“They also underpin our long-term commitment to remain a reliable supplier of energy and chemicals to Asia’s largest economy.”The petrochemicals industry is expected to be a big driver of crude oil demand in the next few decades as consumers switch to electric vehicles.Petrochemicals are set to account for more than a third of the growth in oil demand to 2030, and about half to 2050, ahead of the lorry, aviation and shipping sectors, according to the International Energy Agency. Petrochemicals are also likely to consume an additional 56 billion cubic metres of natural gas by 2030, equivalent to about half of Canada’s total gas consumption today, the agency said.Aramco aims to increase its liquids-to-chemicals capacity to up to four million barrels per day by 2030.  This month, Aramco signed an initial agreement with China’s Shandong Energy Group to supply crude oil and chemical products. The scope of the agreement also extends to co-operation across technology related to hydrogen, renewables and carbon capture and storage. Saudi Arabia and China agreed to enhance political, economic and energy ties during Chinese President Xi Jinping's three-day visit to Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh this month.In September alone, China's exports to Saudi Arabia reached $3.43 billion, while imports stood at $6.81bn.Last year, crude oil was Saudi Arabia's main export to China, which shipped the most cars to the kingdom.In 2020, China became the GCC’s top trading partner, and Saudi imports from China rose by 18 per cent in 2020 to $28.1bn, according to Chinese customs data.

South Africa’s massive petrol and diesel price increases -- The fuel pumps were no friends of South African wallets in 2022. Both the retail petrol and wholesale diesel prices reached record highs during the year, following on from a 2021 that had already seen substantial hikes. Prices were heavily influenced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing conflict, as Russia is one of the world’s major oil producers. That sent the Brent crude oil price to its highest levels in more than a decade. In addition, the US dollar strengthened significantly against other currencies as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to try and curb inflation. Since oil is priced in dollars, this effectively further increased oil costs for South Africa. Other contributing factors to South Africa’s fuel price include annual increases in fuel-related taxes. The inland retail price of a litre of unleaded 95 petrol shot up from R19.61 in January 2022 to R26.74 by July 2022 — an increase of over 36% in seven months. Over the same period, the inland wholesale per-litre price of 50ppm diesel surged from R17.25 to R25.53, a jump of 48%. Had it not been for the government’s decision to temporarily reduce the general fuel levy (GFL), prices between April and July would have been even worse. From April to June, motorists paid R1.50 less on the GFL, while the discount was reduced to 75 cents for July. In the case of the latter, the inland price of unleaded 95 would have hit R27.49 had it not been for the GFL discount. The inland prices of petrol and diesel between January 2022 and December 2022 are shown in the graph below. The coastal prices, while slightly lower, followed the same trends.

OPEC raises oil production forecast for Azerbaijan -Azerbaijan's liquids supply for 2023 is forecast to rise by 59,000 barrels per day to average 0.8 million barrels per day, according to the voluntary production adjustments agreed upon at the 33rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, Azernews reports per OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report from December 2022. “Growth is forecast to come from the Shah Deniz and Absheron condensate projects. Production could rise further after output starts up at the Azeri Central East project in 2023,” the statement reads. Moreover, the statement notes that liquid supply in Azerbaijan is estimated to decline year-on-year by 27,000 barrels per day to an average of 0.7 million barrels per day for 2022. “This has been revised down by 21,000 barrels per day due to downward revisions in 3Q22 and lower-than-expected production in major oil fields in 4Q22. The main declines in legacy fields are expected to be offset by ramp-ups in other fields, such as the BP-led consortium’s Shah Deniz field that has increased gas production capacity in the Azeri sector of the Caspian Sea,” the statement reads. The statement also notes that Azerbaijan’s liquid production in October increased month-on-month by a minor 7,000 barrels per day to an average of 0.7 million barrels per day. “Azerbaijan's liquids production in October increased m-o-m by a minor 7 tb/d to average 0.7 mb/d, although this was down by 50 tb/d y-o-y. Crude production averaged 551 tb/d, with NGLs output at 134 tb/d, according to official sources,” the statement reads.

Kuwaiti oil projects face cash shortage: report - Kuwait’s oil sector is facing a cash shortage and this could impact the Gulf emirate’s hydrocarbon projects, a local newspaper said on Tuesday, citing official data. The Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), which manages the OPEC producer’s hydrocarbon industry, suffered from a deficit of nearly 2.925 billion Kuwaiti dinars ($9.65 billion) at the end of fiscal year 2021-2022, which ended on March 31, the Arabic language daily Alrai said. It quoted a KPC report as saying the deficit was caused by an “increase in the Corporation’s financial commitments to various government departments.” “The report said the deficit was exacerbated by a decline in revenue during 2021 as result of the spread of Coronavirus pandemic.” “Oil projects in Kuwait are facing serious challenges as a result of this financial gap, which reached in some months nearly 97.7 percent of KPC’s commitments to projects…this forced KPC to sell parts of its investments for nearly $770 million.” The paper quoted the report as saying “KPC is now taking measures to improve its financial position” in coordination with some government departments in the next few years, adding that they include slashing a cumulative debt to the government of more than two billion dinars ($6.6 billion).

Saudi crude exports hit 30-month high in October - Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports rose for a fifth straight month in October to the highest in 30 months, data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Monday. Crude exports rose about 0.7% to 7.773 million barrels per day (bpd) in October - the highest since April 2020 – from 7.721 million bpd in September. The world’s largest oil exporter’s crude production, however, fell to 10.957 million bpd in October from 11.041 million bpd in the previous month. Monthly export figures are provided by Riyadh and other OPEC members to JODI, which publishes them on its website. OPEC last week said it expected to see robust global oil demand growth in 2023 with potential economic upside coming from a relaxation of China’s zero-COVID policies, which this year have pushed the country’s oil use into contraction for the first time in years. World oil demand in 2023 will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd), it had said. Earlier in the month, OPEC+ agreed to stick to its oil output targets at a meeting on Sunday as the oil markets struggle to assess the impact of a slowing Chinese economy on demand and a G7 price cap on Russian oil on supply. Saudi’s domestic crude refinery throughput decreased by 14,000 bpd to 2.679 million bpd in October, while direct crude burn fell 142,000 bpd to 380,000 bpd.

‘The world should be worried’: Saudi Aramco — the world’s largest oil producer — issued a dire warning over 'extremely low' capacity. The global oil market remains tight according to Saudi Aramco, the largest oil producer in the world. And that does not bode well for a world that still relies heavily on fossil fuels.“Today there is spare capacity that is extremely low,” Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said at a recent conference in London. “If China opens up, [the] economy starts improving or the aviation industry starts asking for more jet fuel, you will erode this spare capacity.”Nasser warns that oil prices could quickly spike — again.“When you erode that spare capacity the world should be worried. There will be no space for any hiccup — any interruption, any unforeseen events anywhere around the world.”

OPEC+ Has No Choice but to Remain Pro-Active - In the face of a wide range of uncertainties, OPEC+ has no choice but to remain pro-active and pre-emptive. That’s what Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy, said in a recent interview with the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), adding that, “this is not an easy task, especially … [as] the market has the tendency to overreact to news in both directions”. “We have seen many ill-advised interventions in energy markets,” Al Saud told SPA. “But … the fact that OPEC+ can assess markets in an objective manner, its proactive approach and the cohesion within the group put it in a better position to contribute to a more stable market,” he added. In the interview, Al Saud said, “in OPEC+ we leave politics out of our decision-making process, out of our assessments and forecasting, and we focus solely on market fundamentals”. “This enables us to assess situations in a more objective manner and with much more clarity and this in turn enhances our credibility,” Al Saud added in the SPA interview. OPEC+ held 11 meetings over the course of 2022, with the latest of those concluding on December 4. At that meeting, OPEC+ decided to hold production steady. The meeting followed a decision by the group back in October to cut overall production by two million barrels per day from its August 2022 required production levels, starting November 2022. In a statement posted on its website following the conclusion of the latest OPEC+ meeting, OPEC noted that the participating countries “reiterated their readiness to meet at any time and take immediate additional measures to address market developments and support the balance of the oil market and its stability if necessary”. On December 10, the Declaration of Cooperation between OPEC Member Countries and 10 non-OPEC oil-producing countries turned six. “The Declaration of Cooperation is an unprecedented collaborative framework of 23 oil-producing countries that is based on trust, mutual respect and dialogue,” OPEC Secretary General, HE Haitham Al Ghais, said in an organization statement earlier this month. “Six years later, the framework continues to play an instrumental role in supporting market stability, which is essential for growth and development, as well as attracting the necessary investment to ensure energy security,” he added in the statement.

BofA Reveals 2023 Oil Price Forecast –  BofA Global Research’s Commodity Research team forecasts that Brent crude oil will average $100 per barrel across 2023. That’s according to a new report from the company sent to Rigzone recently, which highlighted that the team had “framed downside risks in the form of lower than expected Russian export disruption (so far seemingly unaffected) as well as on the demand side of the equation”. In a separate report sent to Rigzone on December 12, BofA Global Research said global crude oil and petroleum product prices had come down sharply in recent weeks but outlined that Brent could “bounce up quickly”. “Brent may need a Fed pivot and a successful China reopening to turn the corner, but prices could bounce up quickly above $90 per barrel if these two conditions are met, especially now that spec positioning has turned neutral,” the BofA Global Research report noted. In a report released last week, Standard Chartered highlighted that it is forecasting a Brent crude oil price of $91 per barrel in 2023. Earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its Brent oil price forecast for 2023 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO). The EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $92.36 per barrel next year, according to the STEO. In its previous STEO, which was released in November, the EIA saw the Brent spot price averaging $95.33 per barrel in 2023. Also in December, Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research revealed in a report that it sees Brent averaging $95 per barrel in 2023.. The projection was unchanged from Fitch Solutions’ previous oil price forecast report. At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil is trading at $79.55 per barrel. The price of the commodity has steadily dropped from a close of $123.58 per barrel on June 8.

The Era Of Cheap Oil Has Come To An End -  In its latest monthly report, OPEC revealed it had yet again failed to produce as much oil as it agreed to produce the last time it discussed output. And it wasn’t by a few thousand barrels per day, either. The shortfall was some 1.8 million barrels daily, but more importantly, that sort of undershooting of its own target has become a regular thing for the cartel. Meanwhile, the United States federal government needs to buy some oil for its strategic petroleum reserve after releasing close to 200 million barrels from it this year as a way of countering fuel price inflation. Yet U.S. drillers are not in a rush to boost production. On the contrary, it seems production growth has lost its place among these companies’ top priorities. Of course, there are also the sanctions against Russia, which many expect will hurt the country’s oil production, and that may well happen, but it has not happened yet. In fact, the oil sanctions—in the form of a price cap on maritime exports and an embargo on exports to the EU—have had no effect on oil flows out of Russia. For now.  Investment banks expect higher oil prices, despite a recent slump prompted by expectations of an economic slowdown pretty much across the globe. The expectations, now beginning to seep into trader circles, too, are largely based on China’s reversal of its zero-Covid policy. But they also probably take into account the fact that oil remains an indispensable commodity. And the era of cheap oil may well be over for good. “We remain constructive on oil prices driven by recovering demand (China reopening, aviation recovering) amid constrained supply due to low levels of investment, risks to Russia supply, the end of SPR releases, and slowdown of U.S. shale,” Morgan Stanley said this week in a note. Yet the situation may be a lot more serious with regard to supply, as noted in a recent market commentary by TortoiseEcoFin’s President and Portfolio Manager, Matt Sallee.“Global oil inventory is at the lowest level since 2004, the Department of Energy has released 200 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve this year, OPEC continues to struggle to produce at their stated quota and US producers are helping but can only do so much.” This s a pretty succinct description of the global oil supply situation, but the picture is not one that would invoke positive emotions. It is one that is more likely to evoke concern, and with a good reason. Because there is little evidence that any of these trends will change meaningfully any time soon.

Oil rises on hopes for China’s economy - Oil rose on Monday after falling by more than $2 a barrel in the previous session as optimism over the Chinese economy outweighed concern over a global recession. China, the world’s top crude oil importer, is experiencing its first of three expected waves of COVID-19 cases after Beijing relaxed mobility restrictions but said it plans to step up support for the economy in 2023. “There is no doubt that demand is being adversely influenced,” “However, not everything is so negative as China has vowed to fight all pessimism about its economy, and it will do what it takes to boost economic growth.” Brent crude gained 65 cents, or 0.8%, to $79.69 a barrel by 1248 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 85 cents, or 1.1%, to $75.14. Oil surged towards its record high of $147 a barrel earlier in the year after Russia invaded Ukraine in February. It has since unwound most of this year’s gains as supply concerns were edged out by recession fears, which remain a drag on prices. The U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank raised interest rates last week and promised more. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, could shift its ultra-dovish stance when it meets on Monday and Tuesday. “The prospect of further rate rises will hit economic growth in the new year and in doing so curb demand for oil,” Oil was supported by the U.S. Energy Department saying on Friday that it will begin repurchasing crude for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve - the first purchases since releasing a record 180 million barrels from the reserve this year.

Oil Rises after Wavering in Weak Trading Session - Oil tipped higher as investors weighed a pledge from China to revive consumption against broader low-risk sentiment. West Texas Intermediate settled above $75 a barrel, ending the day higher for the first time in three sessions, after flip-flopping in a narrow range on Monday. Market participants saw Chinese President Xi Jinping’s pledge to focus on the economy as supporting energy demand— even as Covid cases surge and the economic reopening of the country gets bumpy. Meanwhile, markets shied away from risky assets as the outlook for global growth has dimmed in the face of more expected interest-rate hikes. Crude markets are more susceptible to tracking broader markets as liquidity in the commodity declines before the holidays. It’s another day of “fragile trading” where markets are bid following headlines from China reopening, said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “At the end of the day, conviction to buy the dip is still quite low.” Oil is still headed for a second monthly loss as concerns about recessions in the US and Europe mount, with central banks continuing to tighten policy. In addition, Russian flows have so far proven resilient as a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven and European Union hasn’t led to major disruptions. Among major buyers, India said it doesn’t expect problems. WTI for January delivery, which expires Tuesday, rose 90c to $75.19 a barrel at settlement. Brent for February settlement gained 76c to $79.80 a barrel. In the US, authorities are moving to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, starting with a 3-million barrel, fixed-price purchase, the Department of Energy said on Friday. The announcement caps a year that saw President Joe Biden order an unprecedented release from the SPR to help curb soaring domestic energy costs, which spiked after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Crude oil price rises as US seeks to restock Strategic Petroleum Reserve - Oil prices rose in early trade on Tuesday, shored up by a weaker dollar and a U.S. plan to restock its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but gains were limited by uncertainty over the impact of rising COVID-19 cases in China, the world’s top oil importer. Brent crude futures advanced 61 cents, or 0.8%, to $80.40 a barrel at 0124 GMT, adding to a 76 cent gain in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 65 cents, or 0.9%, to $75.84 barrel, after climbing 90 cents in the previous session. The market has been supported by the U.S. plan announced last week to buy up to 3 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve following this year’s record release of 180 million barrels from the stockpile. A weaker U.S. dollar has also buoyed prices, with the dollar index around 104.7, as it makes oil cheaper for those holding other currencies. Crude demand expected to increase; go long after price breaches Rs 6,500/bbl However for prices to climb further, analysts said there would need to be clear signs of growing demand.”The oil demand outlook will be key for how high crude prices can go and that might struggle for clarity as we see mixed signals with China’s reopening,” China on Tuesday reported a jump in new confirmed coronavirus cases to 2,722 on Dec. 19, up from 1,995 a day earlier. There are, however, mounting doubts over whether the official count is capturing the real number of infections with anecdotal evidence suggesting the disease is ripping through cities. And in another bearish sign, China’s business confidence fell to its lowest since Jan. 2013, reflecting the impact of a surge in COVID-19 cases on economic activity after the country eased pandemic control measures, a survey by World Economics showed on Monday.

Oil prices pare gains on worries U.S. winter storm could cut travel - Oil prices ended higher on Tuesday in a volatile session as a worsening outlook for a major U.S. winter storm sparked fears that millions of Americans might curb travel plans during the holiday season. Brent crude futures settled up 19 cents, or 0.2%, to $79.99 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled up 90 cents at $76.09 per barrel. Oil prices were buoyed by a softer dollar and a U.S. plan to restock petroleum reserves, but gains were capped by uncertainty over the impact of rising Covid-19 cases China. A weaker dollar has also supported prices, making oil cheaper for those holding other currencies. The Midwest and Great Lakes region could see a major blizzard beginning Thursday, while cold air moving east could bring a flash freeze caused a rapid temperature drop across the country, according to the National Weather Service. Heating oil futures have fallen more than 4% since the start of the week to $3.03 per gallon on Tuesday. The storm could majorly affect travel this holiday season. Prices also fell on news that TC Energy Corp submitted its plan to restart the Keystone pipeline to U.S. regulators, a source familiar with the matter said, nearly two weeks after the 622,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) pipeline ruptured in the worst oil spill in the United States in nine years. While China has been relaxing pandemic restrictions, a surge in Covid-19 cases hurt the fuel demand outlook and fed uncertainty about the country’s economic recovery. Cities across China have been racing to add hospital beds and build fever-screening clinics as international concern mounted that Beijing’s decision to dismantle its stringent “zero-COVID” regime could result in deaths and virus mutations. Washington plans to buy up to 3 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after this year’s record release of 180 million barrels.

US benchmark crude-oil contract for February delivery finishes 1.1% higher   - The most-active US benchmark crude-oil contract for February delivery finished 1.1% higher at $76.23 a barrel, helped by a weaker dollar that made overseas purchases of dollar-denominated crude more attractive to foreign buyers. China’s cloudy demand outlook limited gains as the number of COVID cases surges. Holiday volume limited the session’s trading range. Oil prices were also supported this week by the U.S. plan to buy up to 3 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after this year’s record release of 180 million barrels. WTI for January delivery gained 90 cents per barrel, or 1.20% to $76.09 while Brent Crude for February delivery gained 19 cents per barrel, or 0.24% to $79.99. RBOB Gasoline for January delivery gained 4.52 cents per gallon, or 2.08% to $2.2228. ULSD for January delivery gained 0.54 cent per gallon, or 0.18% to $3.0589. In the near term, oil futures will be underpinned by a drop in Russian oil output to about 1 million barrels per day by the end of March after full implementation of EU sanctions, while Chinese demand is expected to drop due to the rise in the number of COVID cases. The $1.66 trillion government funding bill that U.S. lawmakers are trying to pass cancels “certain” congressionally-mandated sales of oil from the SPR. Congress mandated in previous laws a sale of about 26 million barrels of oil in fiscal 2023 and about 147 million barrels of oil from fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2027. The Biden administration is beginning to buy back oil for the reserve after a record 180 million barrel sale to counter high oil prices. Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said OPEC+ members leave politics out of the decision making process and out of their assessments and forecasting. The minister added that the OPEC+ decision to cut output turned out to be the right one for supporting the stability of the market and the industry. According to Refinitiv analysis, diesel imports into Europe continue at a “relentless pace” following a blast of cold weather. Europe is set to import 2 million tons of diesel this week, slightly down from 2.03 million tons last week of which 380,000 tons has yet to finish discharging. Barclays said a full China re-opening could increase global oil demand by 1-2 million bpd but that could be partly offset by spillover from weakening in advanced economies. It said the recovery could be bumpy and may take weeks if not months to play out. It forecast Russian output falling by 1 million bpd by the end of the first quarter of 2023 with the full implementation of European Union sanctions. TC Energy Corp submitted a restart plan for its Keystone Pipeline to U.S. safety regulator Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration which is being reviewed.  It later stated that it was delaying the restart of the pipeline until at least December 28th-29th.

WTI Extends Gains After API Reports Surprise Crude Draw -Oil prices rose modestly on a low volume, low liquidity day helped by the tumble in the dollar that The BoJ enabled. Ongoing hopes for China demand (post Zero-COVID policies) helped prices and continued supply disruptions in the US are also supporting oil. TC Energy pushed back its targeted restart for the Keystone pipeline by a week and is now aiming for December 28 or 29. API:

  • Crude -3.069mm (-167k exp)
  • Cushing +840k
  • Gasoline +4.510mm
  • Distillates +830k

After last week's huge crude build (and builds across the board), all eyes are on this week's data for any signs that it was a one-off, or that a sudden demand drop has hit the US economy. API reported a 3.069mm barrel Crude draw (bigger than the expected small draw) but builds at Cushing and in products...

Dan Yergin says oil prices could hit $121 a barrel when China fully reopens - Dan Yergin expects oil at $90 in 2023 but says there’s a chance it could go as high as $121 when China fully reopens, but warned there are three major uncertainties looming over the market. “Our base case for 2023 is $90 for Brent but you have to look at other cases,” the S&P Global vice chairman said, adding there are three major uncertainties: the Federal Reserve’s decisions, China demand and Moscow’s reaction to the price caps. That could be “one big boost” and push prices to $121 a barrel, building on strains caused by underinvestment in oil and gas, Yergin said. That would be near highs set in March after Russia invaded Ukraine. On the flipside, Yergin said prices could fall to around $70 per barrel in a recession. In the past three weeks, local and central government authorities in China loosened several strict Covid measures that had required people to stay home and businesses to operate mostly remotely.Oil demand from the world’s top importer could reach 15.7 million barrels per day in 2023, which is around 700,000 barrels higher than 2022, S&P said in its most recent forecast.Other considerations include Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to the price caps imposed by the European Union, as well as further rate hikes undertaken by the Fed.EU energy ministers on Monday agreed to cap natural gas prices at 180 euros per megawatt hour, but the European Commission cautioned that the measure could be suspended if the “risks outweigh the benefits.” The decision came on the heels of an oil price cap of $60 per barrel at the start of December. Yergin said he thinks the recently imposed gas price cap “probably will work. He said it also acts as an anticipation of higher gas prices in subsequent winters due to a lack of Russian gas and competing demand between Europe and Asia for LNG. In Asia’s Wednesday morning trade, Brent crude futures added 0.40% to $80.31 a barrel, while U.S. marker West Texas Intermediate futures traded up 0.33% at $76.48 per barrel.

WTI Extends Gains After Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw; SPR Hits 1983 Lows. | ZeroHedge -  Oil prices are higher for a third straight day ahead of this morning's official inventory data (following API's reported crude draw). Trading volumes remain dismally low.  DOE:

  • Crude -5.895mm (-2.1mm exp)
  • Cushing +853k
  • Gasoline +2.53mm
  • Distillates -242k

After last week's huge crude build, analysts expected a small draw this week (confirmed by API) but the official data showed a considerable crude drawdown of 5.895mm barrels. Inventories at Cushing rose 853k (2nd straight week) while Gasoline stocks rose for the 6th week in a row (distillates inventories drew down a small 242k barrels) While the increase in refined-product stockpiles has muted fears of shortages on the East Coast this winter, it was mainly due to a decline in consumption, possibly a sign of slowing economic activity, which may ultimately pressure crack spreads further. Exports have been a critical component in lessening the pace of inventory additions, but as Bloomberg notes, may drop if a recession hits Latin America. The SPR saw a 3.647mm barrel drain last week (so total Crude inventory draw was 9.5mm barrels), which pushed the SPR down to its lowest level since Dec 1983...

NYMEX Oil Futures Add to Gains on Large Crude Drawdown - New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures held higher post-inventory trade Wednesday after federal data from the Energy Information Administration showed U.S. commercial crude oil inventories declined by a larger-than-expected margin despite refineries cutting run rates for the third consecutive week through Dec. 16. Further supporting the oil complex, demand for gasoline rebounded from a five-month low 8.255 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, indicating stronger driving demand ahead of the holiday travel season that officially begins on Friday, Dec. 23. In the reviewed week, gasoline supplied to the U.S. market, a measure of demand, grew 459,000 bpd to 8.714 million bpd. Gasoline stockpiles still built by 2.5 million barrels (bbl) to 226.1 million bpd compared with expectations for inventory to have increased by 1.3 million bbl. Distillate fuel inventories dipped by 242,000 bbl to 119.9 million bbl and are now 7% below the five-year average. Analysts had expected distillates inventories would stay unchanged from the previous week. Demand for middle-of-the-barrel fuel also recovered to above 4 million bpd, up 247,000 bpd from the previous week. In the crude complex, commercial oil stockpiles fell by a massive 5.9 million bbl to 418.2 million bbl, and are now about 7% below the five-year average, the EIA report showed. Analysts had mostly expected crude stockpiles would fall by just 300,000 bbl in the reviewed week. The supersized draw was realized despite another relatively large 3.6-million-bbl transfer of crude oil last week from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the commercial side, extending a yearlong effort by the U.S. government to stabilize oil markets. Oil stored at Cushing, Oklahoma, hub, the delivery point for NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures, increased 853,000 bbl from the previous week to 25.2 million bbl, the EIA said in its weekly report. U.S. crude oil production remained unchanged from the previous week at 12.1 million bpd, according to the EIA. The refining utilization rate, meanwhile, dropped 1.3% from the previous week to 90.9% of capacity in contrast to expectations with a 0.2% increase. That follows a decline in refinery run rates for each week so far this month. Refiners processed 16 million bpd of crude during the week-ended Dec. 16, 150,000 bpd less than the previous week's average. Near 11:30 a.m. EST, February WTI futures were up $1.57 to $77.81 per bbl, with January ULSD futures gaining than 6 cents to $3.1262 per gallon. January RBOB futures advanced 2.42 cents to $2.2470 per gallon.

Oil prices rose by more than $2 a barrel on Wednesday -  Oil prices rose by more than $2 a barrel on Wednesday after data showed a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles, but gains were capped by a snowstorm that is expected to hit U.S. travel. Prices were also boosted by hopes that China would relax some COVID-19 curbs after no new COVID-19 deaths were reported. China's crude oil imports from Russia in November rose 17% year on year as Chinese refiners rushed to secure more cargoes ahead of a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven nations and an EU embargo from Dec. 5. Markets also awaited clarity on when the Keystone pipeline, a major artery ferrying Canadian crude to the United States, would restart after TC Energy said it had removed the ruptured segment of the pipeline that caused an oil spill earlier this month and sent it for metallurgical testing as directed by U.S. regulators. WTI for February (new front month) delivery gained $2.06 per barrel, or 2.70% to $78.29, while Brent Crude for February delivery gained $2.21 per barrel, or 2.76% to $82.20. RBOB Gasoline for January delivery gained 3.30 cents per gallon, or 1.48% to $2.2558, ULSD for January delivery gained 8.06 cents per gallon, or 2.63% to $3.1395. Traders remain focused on a winter storm stretching across the U.S; which is expected to bring heavy snow and curtail holiday travel season. Flight delays, cancellations and impassable roads during one of the busiest travel periods of the year could drive down fuel demand.  The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil in the SPR fell by 3.6 million barrels in the week ending December 16th to 378.6 million barrels, its lowest since December 1983. TC Energy said that it had safely removed the ruptured segment of Keystone pipeline that caused an oil spill earlier this month and sent it for metallurgical testing as directed by U.S. regulators. Even though a cleanup will take weeks or months, the line can still restart once it is repaired and the plan approved by the regulator. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 282,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending December 23rd, increasing available refining capacity by 316,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 73,000 bpd in the week ending December 30th. ,Platts is reporting that the recent blizzard that left more than a foot of snow in some parts of North Dakota has impacted crude oil production by shutting in some 300,000 b/d and 400,000 b/d, according to state officials. With below zero temperatures expected across the state and expected reduced staffing over the Christmas holiday period, officials do not expect to see a major bounce back in production to normal levels of 1 million b/d until after the New Year.

Crude oil prices rally on tight US stocks as winter blast hits - Oil prices rose for a fourth straight day on Thursday with U.S. crude, heating oil and jet fuel stocks seen tight just as a chilly blast hits the United States and travel is set to soar for the holiday season. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 35 cents, or 0.5%, to $78.64 a barrel, while Brent crude futures gained 27 cents, or 0.3%, to $82.47 at 0145 GMT, extending gains of around 2.7% in the previous session. Both benchmark contracts jumped on Wednesday after government data showed U.S. crude inventories fell by much more than analysts had expected, posting a drop of 5.89 million barrels for the week ending Dec. 16. At the same time there was a decline in distillate stocks, which include heating oil and jet fuel, which defied expectations for a build. The falling stockpiles come as demand for heating oil is set to soar with a powerful winter storm hitting the United States, expected to bring sub-zero wind chills as far south as Texas and record-breaking lows to Florida and the eastern states. Jet fuel consumption is also expected to pick up with a post-COVID boom in travel for the end-of-year holiday season. “On our numbers…the crude market is finely balanced,” said National Australia Bank’s head of commodity research Baden Moore. “As we look into 2023, we see China’s re-opening and a likely continued steady roll-up in global jet demand (towards 2019 levels) will tighten global crude markets and drive prices higher,” he said. A softer U.S. dollar has also buoyed oil prices, as crude becomes cheaper for buyers holding other currencies.

Oil Futures Follow Equities Lower as USD Regains Momentum -- Reversing earlier gains, West Texas Intermediate futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Thursday's session lower amid risk-off sentiment in broader markets as equities on Wall Street accelerated a selloff and the U.S. dollar regained momentum into afternoon trading. Thursday's lower settlements follow a two-session rally for the crude complex as traders positioned for this winter's first arctic storm that is pushing through the Great Plains and upper Midwest to northern New England states and reaching as far south as Texas. The cold snap is set to disrupt some holiday travel, with as many as 1,700 flights canceled by midmorning Thursday and another 2,500 having been delayed, according to tracking site FlightAware. Several airlines issued fee waivers for those looking to rebook flights later this weekend. The arctic blast is delivering bone-chilling temperatures to large swaths of the country, while demand for heating oil in the Northeast is set to surge, with 83% of the country's space heating demand satisfied with heating oil drawn by households in New England states. The Energy Information Administration reports the region's distillate fuel stocks at 4.277 million barrels (bbl) on Dec. 16, 2.6 million bbl or 37.5% below the comparable year-ago period. DTN meteorologists forecast that a complete flip of the weather pattern will occur next week as above-normal temperatures will take hold across Central and Eastern U.S. In financial markets, U.S. equities plummeted on Thursday and the dollar index reversed higher, sending Dow Jones Industrials down as much as 600 points. DJIA was about 350 points lower in late session trade, and S&P 500 was down 1.4%. The Labor Department on Thursday reported initial jobless claims rose to 216,000 last week but were still below estimates for a rise to 225,000.  At settlement, U.S. dollar rallied 0.27% against a basket of foreign currencies to settle at 104.127, weighing on front-month WTI futures. The February WTI contract fell $0.80 to $77.49 per bbl at settlement, and the international crude benchmark Brent contract for February delivery declined $1.22 to $80.98 per bbl. NYMEX January ULSD futures settled down $0.0081 at $3.1314 per gallon, and front-month RBOB futures slipped $0.0070 to $2.2488 per gallon.

Russia threatens to slash oil supplies in 2023, spooks markets--  Russia may cut oil output by 5-7 percent in early 2023 and halt sales to countries supporting a price cap on its crude and oil products, a senior official has said. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told state television on Friday that the cuts could amount to 500,000-700,000 barrels per day. His remarks marked the first in-detail Russian response to the recent price caps rolled out on Russian energy exports by Ukraine’s Western allies over Moscow’s invasion of its neighbour. The European Union, G7 countries and Australia introduced a $60 per barrel price ceiling on Russian oil from December 5 on top of the EU’s embargo on imports of Russian crude by sea and similar pledges by the United States, Canada, Japan and the United Kingdom. The EU has also introduced restrictions on gas prices. These moves are aimed at restricting Russia’s revenue streams while making sure much-needed energy exports do not come to a standstill. Novak, however, said Moscow would ban sales of oil and oil products to countries that join the price cap and companies that demand its observance. Such a step would force those nations to source their oil from other countries. But if Moscow simultaneously cuts oil production, as Novak threatened, it would reduce the total volume of crude available in the market, pushing up prices of non-Russian oil, bringing pain to consumers globally — and potentially giving the Kremlin leverage against the West. “We believe that in the current situation, it is even possible to take risks of lower production rather than be guided by the selling policy regarding the price caps. Today it is $60, tomorrow it can be anything, and getting dependent on some decisions made by unfriendly countries is unacceptable for us,” Novak said. The threatened cutbacks sparked a rise in global oil prices of more than $1 fuelled by expectations of a drop in crude supply. Brent crude was up by 73 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $81.71 a barrel by 07:15 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $78.40 a barrel, up 91 cents, or 1.2 percent higher. They hit highs of $82.17 and $78.77, respectively, earlier in the session. Both contracts were on track to post a second weekly gain, with Brent up 3.3 percent and WTI up 5.5 percent. “Crude prices are higher as energy traders focus on Moscow’s response to the price cap put on Russian oil,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that he would issue a decree early next week detailing Moscow’s actions in response to the price cap. Novak said Russia’s share of the global oil export market was currently 22 percent and that its share of the global gas export market was 20 percent, underscoring global dependence on Russian energy. He added that despite Europe’s efforts to cut reliance on Russian oil and gas, energy exports from Russia are in demand worldwide and Moscow has been diversifying its buyers.

Oil rises $3/bbl after Russia signals output cut due to price cap (Reuters) - Oil prices settled about $3 per barrel higher on Friday for a second straight week of gains after Moscow said it could cut crude output in response to the G7 price cap on Russian exports.Brent crude settled at $83.92, up by $2.94 or 3.6%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $79.56 a barrel, up $2.07, or 2.7%. Both benchmarks recorded their biggest weekly gains since October. Russia may cut oil output by 5% to 7% in early 2023 as it responds to price caps, the RIA news agency cited Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak as saying on Friday.Russia's Baltic oil exports could fall by 20% in December from the previous month after the European Union and G7 nations imposed sanctions and a price cap on Russian crude from Dec. 5, according to traders and Reuters calculations."The potential cut from Russia could be giving the bulls more fuel," said Eli Tesfaye, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. "If global demand continues at current pace, that cut could have a significant impact and we may stay in the $80s range."  Both crude oil demand and output could slump over the next few days due to shut-ins from a massive winter storm that cascaded across a broad swath of the United States. Several of the largest U.S. refineries shut down due to the extreme cold while output shut in Texas and North Dakota.U.S. gasoline and ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures both rose more than 5% on anticipated refining production cuts and a surge in heating oil demand.  Swiss bank UBS expects prices could move back above $100 per barrel next year on Russian output cuts and easing of COVID-related restrictions in China, analyst Giovanni Staunovo said."The road for higher prices will however stay bumpy," he said.

Israeli practices in Palestine rejected, to be peacefully resisted: Palestinian president (Xinhua) -- Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said Friday that the Israeli practices in Palestine are rejected and will be confronted with peaceful popular resistance. In a Christmas message published by the official Palestinian News Agency, Abbas called on the international community "to break its silence and take concrete measures to stop Israeli crimes, including colonial-settlement expansion and ongoing annexation, the consolidation of a racist apartheid regime, attempts at changing the identity and the character of the city of Jerusalem." "The only way for all the peoples of the region to enjoy security, stability, prosperity and good neighborliness is for the Palestinian people to obtain their legitimate rights, which were approved by the UN resolutions," said Abbas. "The Palestinians are looking to end the Israeli occupation and establish their independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital and the return of refugees," he added. Christmas celebrations in Palestine, titled "the spirit of Christmas brings us together in the Palestinian territories," come amid escalating tensions between the Palestinians and the Israeli army in the West Bank.

Israeli Shelling in Damascus Area: Syrian State Media - Israeli shelling overnight targeted the Damascus area, Syrian state media said Tuesday, adding that air defenses had intercepted some of the missiles. The Syria official news agency SANA reported “explosions in the vicinity of Damascus.” The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said the strikes hit Hezbollah weapons depots, killing two people. A Syrian military source, quoted by SANA, said Israel carried out “a burst of missiles” at around 12:30 am Tuesday (2130 GMT Monday) “targeting some points in the vicinity of Damascus city. Our air defenses intercepted the aggressor’s missiles and shot down a number of them.” “The aggression resulted in the injury of two soldiers with some material losses,” the source said. Israel rarely comments on such reports,  but it has carried out hundreds of air strikes on Syrian territory since civil war broke out there in 2011, targeting government positions as well as allied Iran-backed forces and Hezbollah fighters.  Israel has repeatedly said it will not allow its archfoe Iran to gain a foothold in Syria.

Israel 'kicks out' Ukrainian refugees, ends free housing; Tel Aviv's bid to appease Putin? -  (news video) Israeli authorities told Ukrainians to evict state-sponsored housing, a report has said. Israel's N12 reported that some 100 Ukrainians who had fled Russian war have been told to vacate the housing. The refugees had been informed about the decision last week, N12 reported. Watch the video for more.

Russian City Suffers Casualties - 14,000 Without Power After Ukraine Cross Border Attack Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,    One civilian was killed, another eight people were wounded, and a poultry farm was damaged in Ukrainian shelling in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, the region’s governor said on Sunday. "One person died. It is known that the man came to us from Tambov and worked as a contractor on the construction of a poultry farm," Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov wrote on Telegram.  Further he said, "An estimated 14,000 residents are still without power supply. Emergency crews are starting to reconnect the grid to backup power sources." Belgorod borders Ukraine and has come under attack throughout the war. Sunday’s shelling came after The Times reported that the Pentagon now tacitly backs Ukrainian strikes inside Russian territory, although there’s no indication US weapons were used in the attack on Belgorod. When the US provided the HIMARS rocket launch systems to Ukraine, the Biden administration said it received "assurances" that Ukrainian forces won’t use them inside Russian territory. But the US no longer appears to be concerned about how the weapons are used.  "When we give them a weapon system, it belongs to them, where they use it, how they use it, how much ammunition they use to use that system. I mean, those are Ukrainian decisions, and we respect that," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said last week. The Times report said that the US was no longer concerned about Ukrainian attacks inside Russia leading to a major escalation based only on the fact that Moscow hasn’t yet responded with nuclear weapons or attacks on NATO countries.

UAE supports Ukraine with household electricity generators to cope with harsh winter - The UAE announced on Saturday, the dispatch of about 2,500 electric generators to support civilians affected as a result of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, which led to the impact of energy infrastructure and the occurrence of power outages. The move will help them cope with the harsh winter conditions. The aid includes 2,500 home electric generators, the power of each generator ranges from 3.5 kilowatts to 8 kilowatts, as these generators will contribute to providing energy for civilian homes, which will help alleviate the difficulties faced by the families affected by the crisis. Reem Bint Ibrahim Al Hashemi, Minister of State for International Cooperation, said that this aid to Ukraine stems from the UAE's belief in the importance of human solidarity, especially in conflict situations, and is part of the country's continuous efforts to mitigate the humanitarian repercussions of the Ukrainian crisis. The UAE will transport about 1,200 electric generators to the Polish capital, Warsaw, on Saturday, and will transfer the rest of the generators in January. This support comes within the humanitarian relief aid allocated by the UAE to civilians affected by the crisis in Ukraine, at a value of $100 million. It should be noted that the UAE has taken the initiative since the beginning of the crisis to alleviate the suffering of those affected by it, as it has already flown about 8 planes carrying 360 tonnes of food and medical aid and ambulances for Ukrainian refugees in Poland, Moldova and Bulgaria, in response to the United Nations urgent appeal and the regional response plan for refugees from Ukraine.

Russia wants an end to the war in Ukraine, says Putin -- President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia wants an end to the war in Ukraine and that this would inevitably involve a diplomatic solution. Putin made the comments a day after U.S. President Joe Biden hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the White House and promised him continued and unwavering U.S. support. “Our goal is not to spin the flywheel of military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war,” Putin said. “We will strive for an end to this, and the sooner the better, of course.” White House spokesman John Kirby said Putin has “shown absolutely zero indication that he’s willing to negotiate” an end to the war, which began when Moscow sent troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24. “Quite the contrary,” Kirby told reporters during an online briefing. “Everything he (Putin) is doing on the ground and in the air bespeaks a man who wants to continue to visit violence upon the Ukrainian people” and “escalate the war.” Kirby reiterated that Biden was open to talks with Putin, but only after the Russian leader “showed a seriousness about negotiations” and after consultations with Ukraine and U.S. allies. Read more: How Ukraine War has entered a dangerous phase – Part 1 Russia has persistently said it is open to negotiations, but Ukraine and its allies suspect a ploy to buy time after a series of Russian defeats and retreats that have swung the momentum of the 10-month war in favour of Kyiv. “I have said many times: the intensification of hostilities leads to unjustified losses,” Putin told reporters. “All armed conflicts end one way or another with some kind of negotiations on the diplomatic track,” he added. “Sooner or later, any parties in a state of conflict sit down and make an agreement. The sooner this realization comes to those who oppose us, the better. We have never given up on this.” Russia says it is Ukraine that is refusing to talk. Kyiv says Russia must halt its attacks and give up all territory it has seized.

British troops on ground in Ukraine in operations with “high level of political and military risk - A leading British army general has admitted that British Royal Marine troops have been deployed on “discreet operations” inside Ukraine. Lieutenant General Robert Magowan is one of three deputy defence chiefs of staff of the British armed forces and commanded the Royal Marines until 2020. Magowan's comments were made in the marines' official journal, the Globe and Laurel. Magowan, a former head of the marines, made his comments as part of a birthday message to Royal Marines Commandos, declaring, “We have already seen glimpses of the new Commando Force concept playing out for real in the horrific conflict in Ukraine.” Magowan revealed in January 2022, 350 marines from 45 Commando Group were “deployed at short notice — from the depths of a dark, north Norwegian winter, to evacuate the British embassy in Kyiv to Poland.” Magowan continued “Then in April, they returned into the country to re-establish the diplomatic mission, providing protection to critical personnel. During both phases, the commandos supported other discreet operations in a hugely sensitive environment and with a high level of political and military risk.” Magowan is quoted in the Express stating “Alongside wider defence, we have been heavily involved in training hundreds of Ukrainian military personnel throughout this summer. We are also planning to train Ukraine marines.” This is one of the main functions of 45 Commando, whose website states, “When acting as a Standing Task unit, 45 Commando acts as protection force for Royal Navy and Royal Fleet Auxiliary vessels around the globe. They also contribute to the UK’s domestic resilience and supply training teams to help develop foreign armed forces.” Reporting on Magowans comments, forces.net noted that Magowan said the 'ability to move and operate across' the future battlespace is 'highly constrained… We are seeing this play out today in fact, in the Donbas and the Black Sea region. “It is an all-seeing environment, with few places to hide, where there is a constant battle for supremacy of the electromagnetic environment, an environment where you need freedom to fly, communicate, see and strike.” He added “It calls for the ability to break in, to move decisively and discreetly, to prosecute effect at range and withdraw – the so-called pulsed operation, as nobody can dominate the battlespace for long periods of time anymore. 'This is the new Commando Force and it is firmly established on its journey to be forward deployed, in and around harm's way, on a much more regular basis… There is no turning back.” The Royal Marines Commandos are the UK's special operations capable commando force, amphibious light infantry and also one of the five fighting arms of the Royal Navy. Magowan’s statements provide a glimpse of the how the marines the marineswhose website describes them as “an elite fighting force, optimised for worldwide rapid response” —are massively involved in the Ukrainian war effort.

Former German Chancellor Merkel admits the Minsk agreement was merely to buy time for Ukraine’s arms build-up - According to former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the Minsk agreement served to buy time to rearm Ukraine. “The 2014 Minsk agreement was an attempt to give Ukraine time,” Merkel told the weekly Die Zeit. “It also used this time to become stronger, as you can see today.” Merkel, who was also leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has made few public statements since she was replaced as chancellor by Olaf Scholz (Social Democratic Party, SPD) a year ago, after sixteen years in office. The extensive interview published by Die Zeit on December 7 is a rare exception. Behind the scenes, however, Merkel remains politically active. In her office, to which she is entitled as a former chancellor, she employs nine people, four more than approved—an office manager, a deputy manager, two desk officers, three clerks and two drivers. She maintains regular contact with Scholz, as he himself has reported. She had already cultivated a good relationship with him when he was still finance minister in the grand coalition government. All the more remarkable is her admission that the Minsk agreement served to buy time for Ukraine’s rearmament. “It was clear to all of us that this was a frozen conflict, that the problem had not been solved, but that is precisely what gave Ukraine valuable time,” Merkel told Die Zeit. Previously, the Minsk agreement, which Merkel signed together with then-French President François Hollande, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin in September 2014, had been portrayed as an effort towards peace that the Russian president had allegedly later thwarted. Now, Merkel confirms that NATO wanted war from the start but needed time to prepare militarily—an assessment WSWS has long held. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the US has pursued the goal of remaining the “sole world power.” To this end, Washington has waged numerous criminal wars and expanded NATO into Eastern Europe. Now it also wants to integrate Ukraine, Georgia and other former Soviet republics into NATO and subjugate Russia in order to plunder its resources and isolate China.

Putin Pledges Unlimited Spending to Ensure Victory in Ukraine - President Vladimir Putin said Russia has “no limitations” on military spending for the war in Ukraine, as he urged the army to deliver on his declared goals with the invasion approaching its 11th month. “The country and government is giving everything that the army asks for — everything,” Putin told top military officials at the Defense Ministry’s annual meeting in Moscow on Wednesday. “I trust that there will be an appropriate response and the results will be achieved.” Russia should expand its armed forces to 1.5 million troops from the current 1.15 million to ensure its security, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told Putin. The total should include 695,000 professional contract soldiers, he said, without explaining where the additional recruits would be found. The commitment to spare no expense on the war will be a strain on government finances as the proceeds from energy exports come under pressure from price restrictions imposed by the US and its allies. While Russia is running a record current-account surplus this year, the flow of money is expected to weaken in 2023 as sales of gas to Europe plunge and Group of Seven sanctions curb Russia’s oil revenue. The budget is expected to run a deficit of 2% of gross domestic product by the end of this year, despite recording a wider surplus in recent months thanks largely to dividends and a windfall tax paid by Gazprom PJSC. The Kremlin leader addressed his military chiefs as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy prepared to meet US counterpart Joe Biden in Washington on his first trip outside Ukraine since Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion began. Biden will unveil almost $2 billion more in assistance and announce moves to deliver a Patriot missile battery to help Ukraine build up its air defenses against a campaign of Russian strikes aimed at knocking out heat, power and water supplies during the winter. In a largely low-key address devoid of forecasts of imminent success, Putin sought to deflect blame for what he called the “shared tragedy” of the war that he began, repeating claims that the conflict was unavoidable even as Ukraine and its US and European allies had repeatedly made clear before the invasion that there was no threat to Russia’s security. Putin spoke a day after he conceded in a message to Russia’s spy agencies that the situation in four partly-occupied regions of southeastern Ukraine was “extremely difficult.” A successful Ukrainian counteroffensive is wresting back control of an increasing amount of the territory including the city of Kherson, the only regional capital Russia seized during the war.

Europe’s response to Ukraine war refugees faces new challenges – Vox -- — People fleeing Ukraine arrive at the Berlin Hauptbahnhof on every train from Warsaw, volunteers say. Sometimes seven, sometimes 20, sometimes more — but always, there are people. The volunteers, in safety vests, wait for them at the edges of the platform. They find the ones wearing winter coats on a mild October day, the ones trying to balance rolling suitcases and overstuffed backpacks and the cats they didn’t want to leave behind. The scene repeats throughout the day, so by the end, dozens and dozens have passed through the train station in Berlin. That number is on top of the more than 1 million who’ve already made their way into Germany, and the more than 4.8 million Ukrainians who have registered as refugees in Europe since February. In total, nearly 8 million people have fled the country; another 6.5 million have moved within Ukraine. It is the spillover of months and months of war, a humanitarian tragedy that has gotten quieter but never stopped.Russia’s invasion of Ukraine created the fastest and one of the largest displacements of people since World War II. Civil society and aid organizations immediately stepped up: strollers and winter coats and hot food at train stations, citizens offering up their basements and spare bedrooms. The European Union, too, mounted an unprecedented response, granting temporary protection to most people fleeing Ukraine. The mechanism bypassed EU countries’ traditional asylum processes and granted Ukrainian arrivals immediate residency rights and access to the labor market, among other benefits, for at least one year, but potentially longer.Now, as the war in Ukraine inches closer to the year mark, the situation in Ukraine — and across Europe — is entering a new, unpredictable phase. Organizations, volunteers, and local governments are stretching to support Ukrainians already in Europe, as they prepare for the potential of more arrivals this winter.In the summer and early fall, with fighting mostly concentrated in the Donbas, Ukrainian arrivals to Europe slowed, and more traffic began moving in the opposite direction, as Ukrainians returned. But this fall, Moscow unleashed a series of all-out assaults on Ukraine from the sky, targeting civilian and energy infrastructure. The Ukrainian government says about 50 percent of its infrastructure is now damaged, and the entire country is facing dangerous disruptions to electricity, heat, and water as it gets colder. The Ukrainian government warned citizens who have already sought refuge abroad not to return.

Turkmenistan Is The Center Of A Geopolitical Tug Of War  - Since gaining independence in 1991, Turkmenistan has attracted only sporadic attention due to its extreme level of isolation from the outside world, which rivals that of North Korea. As a result of this posturing, developments within the country fly under most radars. Ashgabat remains resolute in this position as it faces high levels of poverty and the threat of an Islamist insurgency from Afghanistan, which serve to spark fears that almost any change in the system might destabilize the situation. . But now all this seem likely to change, as Turkmenistan is becoming the object of intense geopolitical competition between outside powers, East and West, which want the country to become more closely linked to them, and Moscow, which hopes to maintain Turkmenistan’s neutrality to block that from happening. With a new president this year—Serdar Berdimuhamedov replaced his father Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov in March 2022—Turkmenistan itself has become more active internationally.  But a more important motivating factor comes from abroad, the result of efforts by powers ranging from China and Iran to Turkey and the European Union to draw Ashgabat into their orbits. China, Iran and Afghanistan have all made inroads in Ashgabat, with Beijing being especially successful, while Tehran and Kabul are making strides as well (see EDM, December 17, 2021; July 19, 2021; February 10, 2021). But the more consequential moves on this geopolitical chessboard have been those of the EU and Turkey—and Moscow’s efforts to counter their approaches. These moves have come with dizzying speed in recent days. On December 6 and 7, Turkmenistani Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov met with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, who stressed that Moscow views Ashgabat as “our closest friend and strategic partner,” words that Meredov reciprocated. But in an indication that Moscow did not make much progress on its hopes to include Turkmenistan in the CSTO or the Eurasian Economic Community, the meeting ended with agreements only on marginal issues, including student exchanges and the opening of representation for the national railway agencies of each country in the other (Mfa.gov.tm, December 6; Minobrnauki.gov.ru, December 6;  Turkmenportal.com, December 9). On December 14, President Berdimuhamedov together with his father, the former president, hosted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at a resort on the shores of the Caspian. That summit, which was originally scheduled more than a year ago but was delayed, has worried Moscow, which feared that it would become an occasion for Turkey to gain a more established foothold in Central Asia at Russia’s expense. Moscow is concerned both by the possibility that Turkey secures Ashgabat’s agreement to join the OTS and the potential expansion of the flow of Turkmenistan’s gas across the Caspian to Turkey—rather than southward across Iran as the Kremlin prefers (Nezavisimaya gazeta, December 13; Casp-geo.ru, December 15). During the event, Turkey and Azerbaijan did not achieve everything they wanted. Turkmenistan refrained from committing to joining the OTS, leading to jubilation in Moscow (Nezavisimaya gazeta, December 14). Yet, despite efforts by Russian commentators to play down the importance of the session, the three did agree to expand earlier efforts to ship more Turkmenistani gas westward across the Caspian, thus bypassing Russia and helping Turkey expand its influence across the region (see EDM, January 27, 2021). And while Moscow observers suggested that Ashgabat had organized the meeting to directly correspond with the Day of Neutrality and thus reaffirm its independence, where the meeting took place may have been more important than when.

Taliban Bans All Education For Afghan Girls, Ironically As Huge Pallets Of Cash 'Humanitarian' Aid Flown In  -- On Tuesday the Taliban suspended university education for all women, and Afghan girls promptly began being turned away from any college campuses, sparking limited attempts at protest. But on Wednesday it emerged that the ban on education has extended to all levels and ages, even down to elementary schools, which has effectively been suspended for all girls. Teachers too, have been impacted, as The Wall Street Journal reports, "In a gathering in Kabul with private-school directors, clerics and community representatives, Taliban officials on Wednesday also barred female staff, including teachers, from working in schools, closing off one of the few professions that had remained open to Afghan women under the new government, according to school principals who attended the meeting." The new hardline Islamist Taliban laws are so sweeping that they go beyond school campuses, as women can now no longer visit mosques or religious seminaries. Already there had been a long pause in girls' schooling following the August 2021 Taliban takeover of the country amid the large-scale US-NATO troop withdrawal, with secondary schools shuttered starting in March. More recently, in some locations many women had just passed college entrance exams and were ready to pursue higher education. The WSJ is basing its reporting on a high-level Taliban meeting this week where the decision against women in schools at all levels was made: According to attendees at the meeting, the Taliban said the ban on girls’ schooling would be temporary. However, during their first rule in the 1990s, the Taliban also said a prohibition on girls’ education that they had promulgated was temporary, but was never lifted it. After the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan in August 2021, they closed schools across the country. Most schools eventually reopened, but girls in secondary school were told to stay at home until conditions—which the Taliban didn’t define—were ready for them to return to classes. The announcement to return to school never came.

Taliban minister defends closing universities to women as global backlash grows -- The minister of higher education in Afghanistan’s Taliban government has defended his decision to ban women from universities – a decree that triggered a global backlash and protests inside the country.Afghanistan’s Taliban-run administration announced earlier this week it had closed universities to women partly due to female students not adhering to its interpretation of the Islamic dress code and interaction between students of different genders. Female university students were turned away from campuses on Wednesday and the higher education ministry said their access would be suspended “until further notice”. Dozens of women gathered outside Kabul University on Thursday to protest in the first major public demonstration in the capital since the decision.In the capital, about two dozen women marched in the streets, chanting for freedom and equality. “All or none. Don’t be afraid. We are together,” they chanted.In video obtained by The Associated Press, one woman said Taliban security forces used violence to disperse the group.“The girls were beaten and whipped,” she said. “They also brought military women with them, whipping the girls. We ran away, some girls were arrested. I don’t know what will happen.” US secretary of state Antony Blinken said the Taliban were trying to sentence Afghanistan’s women “to a dark future without opportunity” by barring them from attending universities. “Afghan women deserve better. Afghanistan deserves better,” he later tweeted. “The Taliban have just definitively set back their objective of being accepted by the international community.”Acting higher education minister Neda Mohammad Nadeem, in his first comments on the matter, told Afghan state broadcaster RTA that several issues had prompted the decision.“We told girls to have proper hijab but they didn’t and they wore dresses like they are going to a wedding ceremony,” he said.“Girls were studying agriculture and engineering, but this didn’t match Afghan culture. Girls should learn, but not in areas that go against Islam and Afghan honour.” The higher education minister said that the Taliban “asked the world not to interfere in our affairs” as he said discussions over female education were ongoing. US-led forces withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2021 after 20 years of war as the western-backed former government collapsed and the militants, who enforce a strict interpretation of Islam, seized Kabul. Since the Taliban took over, students and professors say university classes have been separated by gender and female students have adjusted their attire to meet instructions such as covering their face and wearing dark colours.

Chinese business confidence falls to lowest in almost a decade on COVID (Reuters) - China's business confidence fell to its lowest since January 2013, a survey by World Economics showed on Monday, reflecting the impact of surging COVID-19 cases on economic activity with the abrupt lifting of many pandemic control measures. The index fell to 48.1 in December from 51.8 in November, showed the World Economics' survey of sales managers at over 2,300 companies conducted Dec. 1-16. The index was the lowest since the survey began in 2013. The survey results were among the first indicators of how business sentiment has taken a hit in the world's second-biggest economy, after the sharp relaxation of strict COVID containment measures on Dec. 7 triggered a still-growing wave of domestic COVID cases across China. "The survey suggests strongly that the growth rate of the Chinese economy has slowed quite dramatically, and may be heading for recession in 2023," World Economics said. China's GDP is expected to grow just 3% this year, its worst performance in nearly half a century. The survey showed business activity fell sharply in December with the sales managers indexes in Manufacturing and Service Sectors both below the 50 level. "The percentage of companies that claim to be currently negatively impacted by COVID has risen to a survey high, with more than half of all respondents now suggesting their operations are being harmed in one way or another," the London-based data provider said. China has recently dismantled some key parts of the world's toughest anti-COVID curbs and lockdowns. The measures were championed by President Xi Jinping but impaired the economy and sparked popular protests unprecedented in his decade-long rule. The top leaders and policymakers will focus on stabilising the economy in 2023 and step up policy adjustments to ensure key targets are hit, according to an agenda-setting meeting ended on Friday. read more "It may take at least another quarter before things turn around," said Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China. "Many small businesses have run out of liquidity, especially restaurants, gyms, hotels and other city services."

Japan plans to double military spending - The Japanese government last Friday announced a doubling of military spending and, for the first time, is openly acquiring offensive weapons, all of which is in breach of not only of the country’s so-called pacifist constitution, but of the limits placed on its military for decades. The military build-up is explicitly directed against China and is part of the rapidly escalating, US-led confrontation with Beijing. Article 9 of the Japanese constitution imposed by US occupation forces following World War II declares that “the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.” To accomplish that aim, it continues “land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be sustained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized. Article 9 quickly became a dead letter as Washington came to regard Japan as a critical ally in the Cold War against the Soviet bloc including China. The US and Japan signed a military alliance in 1952 and, in the name of defence, Japan established air, sea and land military forces—under the thin disguise of Self-Defence Forces. For decades, Japanese governments retained the fiction that its sizeable and well-armed military was purely for defensive purposes in a bid to ward off deep-seated popular hostility, particularly in the working class, to its war preparations. Military budgets have been limited to around 1 percent of GDP and the purchase of nakedly offensive weaponry has been largely avoided. These limits have now been cast aside in documents released last week: a revised National Security Strategy (NSS), as well as the National Defense Strategy (NDS) and the Defense Buildup Program (DBP), both of which are based on the new NSS. It is the first time the NSS has been revised since the initial 2013 strategy. Tokyo will increase its military spending between the 2023 and 2027 fiscal years to 43 trillion yen ($US316 billion), a 56.5 percent increase over the previous five years. The annual defence budget is projected to increase from $US40 billion this year to about $80 billion in 2027. This will bring its military spending to 2 percent of GDP, in line with that of NATO countries. Anticipating opposition, the government is attempting to dress up the acquisition of offensive weaponry as “counterstrike” capabilities necessary for “self-defense.” Their use will supposedly be limited to when an armed attack against Japan, or a foreign country in a close relationship with Tokyo, threatens Japan’s national survival. It is a meaningless caveat that could be subverted by a range of invented pretexts. The Japanese military will acquire a range of weapons including cruise missiles like Lockheed Martin’s Tomahawk and Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM). Tokyo is also planning to upgrade its own Type 12 guided missiles that can be fired from the surface, ships, or aircrafts to strike naval vessels, and to manufacture its own hypersonic guided missiles. It will also produce its own advanced fighter jets, being jointly developing with the United Kingdom and Italy, to complement its F-35 fighters being purchased from the US.

Bank of Japan decision sends “shock” through global markets - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has delivered what was almost universally described in the financial press as a “shock” to global markets with its decision on Tuesday to relax its so-called yield curve control (YCC) policy. Under the policy, implemented almost a decade ago, the central bank has intervened in the market, buying up government bonds, to ensure that the yield or interest rate on 10-year government debt hovers around zero. The loosening move was a decision to expand the band within which the yield can fluctuate from minus 0.25 percent to plus 0.25 percent to minus 0.5 percent to plus 0.5 percent. Bond prices fell in response to the decision, sending the yield to as high as 0.47 percent before easing back to 0.41 percent, the highest level in almost two decades. Bond prices and their yields move in opposite directions. While the numbers involved are small, the implications are large because of the trillions of dollars that surge through the global financial system every day. Thus, a small movement in interest rates can result in sizeable gains or losses on any deal depending on the calculations made when it was struck. A number of financial trading houses had been making the bet there would be some move on the YCC policy, if not its total abandonment. This was because of the pressure on the Japanese currency and financial system resulting from the interest rate rises spearheaded by the US Federal Reserve and being followed by central banks around the world. The interest rate disparity between Japan and the rest of the world led to a sharp drop in the yen as it fell to a low of 150 to the dollar in October. It rose subsequently and, as a result of the loosening announcement, the exchange rate was 133, an upward movement of 2.9 percent on the day. Outlining the decision, BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda denied it was monetary tightening or the abandonment of YCC. He said it was aimed at addressing volatility in global financial markets and improving the functioning of bond markets to “enhance the sustainability of monetary easing.” “This measure is not a rate hike,” he said. “Adjusting the YCC does not signal the end of YCC or an exit strategy.”Despite these claims, the move was seen in markets as at least a significant “crack” in the operation of the YCC, possibly opening the way for its eventual scrapping.

Canada preparing to lead new military intervention in imperialist-ravaged Haiti - At Washington’s behest, Canada’s Liberal government is leading preparations for yet another imperialist military intervention in Haiti, the Western hemisphere’s most impoverished country. Under conditions where the country’s 11 million inhabitants face a desperate health and social crisis—including mounting deaths from cholera and famine—and where there is mass opposition towards the imperialist-installed government of President Ariel Henry, Washington and its imperialist allies are determined to stabilize capitalist rule in the island nation through military force. Henry public requested foreign military intervention in October. His regime has been increasingly crippled and discredited by a combination of mass popular protests demanding his resignation and new elections, and the occupation of large swathes of the county by criminal gangs with ties to rival factions of the Haitian oligarchy. The Biden administration quickly made clear its support for a military deployment by drafting a UN Security Council resolution authorizing such action. However, given the popular anger in Haiti over Washington’s long and bloody record on the island—including its colonial occupation from 1915 to 1934 and support for the bloody dictatorship of the Duvaliers—the US prefers that Canada assume responsibility for organizing and leading the new mission. The Trudeau government is eager to oblige its closest ally and principal military-security partner. But it also fears being sucked into a bloody quagmire. The gangs are heavily armed, and even more importantly, any foreign military intervention led by Canada risks facing mass opposition, especially from the working people of Port-au Prince, Cap-Haïtien, and other large cities. In recent years, Canada has been increasingly targeted by protests over its role as Washington’s partner in imperialist brigandage in Haiti, including through the so-called Core Group of nations. The push of Henry and Washington for a military intervention intensified as protests swept Haiti following September’s abolition of oil price subsidies at the behest of the International Monetary Fund. Henry’s appeal for military aid triggered further demonstrations, which were brutally suppressed by the Haitian National Police (HNP). To further this repression, Canada airlifted armoured vehicles to Haiti in mid-October. Widespread food shortages, combined with a cholera epidemic that has claimed over 290 lives and infected an estimated 14,000 since October, are fuelling fears in Ottawa and Washington that the social devastation in Haiti could destabilize the entire region and trigger social unrest in neighbouring countries. Of especial concern to the imperialist vultures in Ottawa and Washington, who have imposed one savage IMF restructuring program on the country after another, is that an implosion of Haiti will produce a “refugee crisis”—i.e., a flood of people seeking to escape repression, violence and unspeakable social misery. The cholera epidemic is taking an especially horrific toll on children, with those aged between 1 and 5 making up more than 40 percent of infections. An emergency vaccine campaign launched December 18 with the aim of vaccinating more than one-tenth of the population, and a higher percentage of young children aged 1 to 5, is expected to fail in many areas that are under gang control due to the inability to guarantee the health care workers’ safety.

Facebook Marketplace Accused Of Breaching EU's Antitrust Rules --The EU's European Commission has accused Facebook Marketplace of breaching antitrust rules because the company dominates both social networks and an online classified ads market - and has been "distorting competition" by coupling the two services. Specifically, the fact that "users of Facebook automatically have access to Facebook Marketplace, whether they want it or not," is of concern to the EU.The alleged breach of antitrust rules comes in the form of a European Commission Statement of Objections released on Monday, which said it had informed Facebook parent Meta that a "preliminary view" deemed the company in violation. A Statement of Objections is the first step the Commission takes when it begins an investigation into what it believes are a violation of E.U. antitrust rules. It does not mean the outcome has been predetermined. But if an investigation concludes that antitrust rules have been violated, the Commission has the power to impose a fine of up to 10% of Meta’s annual worldwide turnover as well as a prohibition of further rule-breaking behavior. –Variety With its Facebook social network, Meta reaches globally billions of monthly users and millions active advertisers," said Margrethe Vestager, the Commission’s executive VP for competition policy. "Our preliminary concern is that Meta ties its dominant social network Facebook to its online classified ad services called Facebook Marketplace. This means Facebook users have no choice but to have access to Facebook Marketplace. Furthermore, we are concerned that Meta imposed unfair trading conditions, allowing it to use of data on competing online classified ad services. If confirmed, Meta’s practices would be illegal under our competition rules."The report also raised concerns that Meta is imposing "unfair trading conditions" on Marketplace competitors who advertise on Facebook and Instagram via 'onerous terms and conditions,' which apparently also allow Meta to use data derived from competitors to benefit the Marketplace service - which would infringe on Article 102 of the EU's Treaty of the Functioning of the European Union. The Commission says the length of the investigation will depend on various factors, including Meta's cooperation.

Britain’s High Court rules asylum deportations to Rwanda legal -  The High Court has ruled that the British government’s barbaric policy of deporting asylum-seekers to Rwanda is legal. The court’s decision effectively overturns key provisions of the Geneva Convention (1951) and is a watershed in the assault on fundamental democratic rights.In their written judgment handed down this morning, Lord Justice Lewis and Mr Justice Swift ruled that sending asylum-seekers 4,000 miles away to Rwanda did not breach the UN's Refugee Convention or human rights laws, “The court has concluded that, it is lawful for the government to make arrangements for relocating asylum seekers to Rwanda and for their asylum claims to be determined in Rwanda rather than in the United Kingdom.”The High Court was responding to a judicial review application by asylum seekers and their supporters challenging the legality of their deportation. Care4Calais, Detention Action and the Public and Commercial Services Union (whose members are charged with arranging deportation flights) brought the action in June alongside eight unnamed asylum seekers from Syria, Iran, Iraq, Vietnam and Albania.Flights to Rwanda were halted on June 14 by an emergency intervention from the European Court of Human Rights after twenty asylum claims by some of those scheduled for deportation to Rwanda were refused by the Administrative Court, the Court of Appeal and Supreme Court between June 8 and June 14.


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