week ending Dec 31

Slow Pace Of Balance Sheet Reduction Calls Into Question Fed's Commitment To Inflation Fight -- Most people have focused on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as it battles price inflation. But there is another element in the inflation fight most people ignore – balance sheet reduction. It isn’t going well. The December FOMC statement mentioned balance sheet reduction in passing. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in May.” The problem with this statement is it isn’t following the plan described in May. The plan called for $30 billion in US Treasuries and $17.5 billion in mortgage-backed securities to roll off the balance sheet in June, July and August. That would total $45 billion per month. In September, the Fed said it would increase the pace to $95 billion per month.Given the plan, the Fed balance sheet should have dropped by $560 billion as of the end of December. According to the latest data, as of Dec. 19, the balance sheet had only shrunk by $401 billion.That means unless there is a significant drop in the last week of the year, balance sheet reduction is nearly $160 billion behind the planned pace. This raises a question: if the Fed is really committed to slaying inflation, why is it shrinking its balance sheet so slowly? The question becomes more poignant when you realize that the quantitative tightening plan wasn’t particularly ambitious to begin with. At $95 billion per month, it would take 7.8 years for the Fed to shrink its balance sheet back to pre-pandemic levels.

How the Fed battled inflation in 2022 - If 'transitory' was the defining term for the Federal Reserve's view of inflation in 2021, the key word for 2022 was 'expeditiously.'The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee hiked interest rates during seven consecutive meetings this year between March and December, bringing its benchmark rate from 0.25% to 4.5%, the most rapid tightening campaign executed by the central bank since the 1980s.Typically, the Fed only adjusts its interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point at a time. This year, six of its seven hikes were 50 basis points or more, including four straight 75-basis point jumps. On four different occasions, Chair Jerome Powell used his post-meeting remarks to highlight the importance of the Fed "moving expeditiously" to temper demand and rein in inflation. In its final meeting of the year, the FOMC let off the gas slightly, opting to increase by only half a percentage point, with Powell saying he expects fewer steep hikes would be necessary in the year ahead. Of course, he noted, that is subject to change depending on economic conditions. What follows is a review of the actions taken by the FOMC at each of its final seven meetings of 2022.

Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - This will likely be the final weekly update of these high frequency indicators. I've been posting these and more since the beginning of the pandemic. It has been interesting watching these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.  This data is as of December 25th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The 7-day average is 10.1% below the same week in 2019 (89.9% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently - but still below pre-pandemic levels. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through December 22nd. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released. Movie ticket sales were at $236 million last week, up about 37% from the median for the week - thanks to "Avatar: The Way of Water". This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. This data is through Dec 17th. The occupancy rate was up 9.2% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue) and close to 2019 levels. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022. As of December 16th, gasoline supplied was down 7.4% compared to the same week in 2019. Recently gasoline supplied has been running below 2019 and 2021 levels - and sometimes below 2020.

GOP omnibus opponents bring home billions of earmarked dollars -- Lawmakers who voted against the massive omnibus spending package that’s headed for President Joe Biden’s desk secured $3 billion worth of earmarks in the 4,126-page behemoth, a CQ Roll Call tally found, or about one-fifth of all the measure’s home-state projects.Almost all of that haul goes to Republicans, although New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — the only Democrat in either chamber to vote "no" — accounts for just under $20 million. Another House Democrat, Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib, voted "present"; she procured nearly $16 million.Most of the earmarked funds secured by opponents of the bill, about $2.8 billion worth, were sponsored or co-sponsored by 110 House Republicans. Only nine House Republicans supported the measure, and one was absent for the vote: West Virginia Rep. David B. McKinley, who lost his primary to fellow GOP Rep. Alex X. Mooney. All 10 of those Republicans got earmarks in the package.The two House Republicans with by far the largest hauls in the chamber, ranking in the top 10 for the entire Congress, voted against the bill. That’s Randy Weber of Texas, with $287.5 million, and Michael Waltz of Florida, with $169.4 million.Waltz was among the 16 House Republicans from Florida, which stands to receive emergency disaster aid for hurricane recovery, who voted against the bill. Of those, 11 sponsored earmarks worth a combined $404 million.Florida GOP Sens. Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, neither of whom asked for earmarks, also voted against the package. Before Senate passage, Scott asked for a vote on his bill to break the disaster aid supplemental out of the broader legislation and pass it separately, but was soundly defeated.Several Republican earmarkers who are currently ranking members on Appropriations subcommittees, putting them in line to be "cardinals" next year when the GOP assumes control, also voted "no."They include Harold Rogers of Kentucky, the former full committee chairman who initially voted for the measure before flipping his vote. He got $47.6 million in the package.Others include Robert B. Aderholt of Alabama; Tom Cole of Oklahoma; Mario Diaz-Balart of Florida; John Carter of Texas; Chuck Fleischmann of Tennessee; Ken Calvert of California; Mike Simpson of Idaho and David Joyce of Ohio.Among the current GOP ranking members on Appropriations, only Steve Womack of Arkansas and Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington, both of whom got earmarks, voted for the omnibus. Herrera Beutler lost her primary and won’t be returning next year.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez casts house Dems' sole vote against omnibus spending bill | Salon.com  - Citing the increased immigration enforcement and military funding it contains, U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Friday cast the sole Democratic House vote against a $1.7 trillion omnibus spending package. In the final vote of the 117th Congress, House lawmakers passed the sweeping spending bill 225-201-1, with Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich) voting "present" and nine Republican lawmakers crossing party lines to support the measure. The bill now goes to President Joe Biden's desk for signing. Ocasio-Cortez explained in a statement that she voted against the bill because she campaigned on a promise "to oppose additional expansion and funding" for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), "particularly in the absence of long-overdue immigration reform.""The dramatic increase in DHS and ICE spending... cuts against the promises our party has made to immigrant communities across the country," she added. Numerous progressive and immigrant groups applauded Ocasio-Cortez's "no" vote.The Communities United for Status and Protection (CUSP) coalition said in a statement that Democratic control of both houses of Congress and the White House "should have meant that Democrats lead with dignity [and] respect and uphold the inherent value of all immigrants. Unfortunately to date, that has seldom been the case." CUSP continued: The 117th Congress is being asked to support a funding bill that gives billions of dollars of funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Patrol to hire more agents and surveil our communities, maintain the status quo of the anti-Black immigration detention system, target people with visa overstays, failure to pass the Afghan Adjustment Act, and a deliberate omission of lifesaving immigration provisions. CUSP firmly supports and thanks Congressmember Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for boldly standing with immigrant communities with a no vote against the omnibus. Despite any good that may be in this bill, we reject the selfish choice that the Democrats have presented us because we know that even in the difficult world of politics—compromise is possible. Civil Rights Corps founder and executive director Alec Karakatsanis tweeted that "what Democrats did today is shameful."

AOC Only Democrat to Vote ‘No’ on $1.7 Trillion Omnibus Bill  - Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.) was the lone Democrat to vote “no” on the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill that passed the House in a 225–201–1 vote on Friday. Ocasio-Cortez’s fellow progressive “Squad” member Representative Rashida Tlaib (D., Mich.) voted “present.” Both of the liberal lawmakers voted by proxy. The New York Democrat explained her vote in a statement Friday afternoon: “I campaigned on a promise to my constituents: to oppose additional expansion and funding for ICE and DHS — particularly in the absence of long-overdue immigration reform. For that reason, as well as the dramatic increase in defense spending which exceeds even President Biden’s request, I voted no on today’s omnibus bill.” The massive spending bill, which is more than 4,000 pages long, allocates $8.42 billion in funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement — $319.4 million more than what President Biden requested. The measure also includes $86.5 billion in discretionary resources for the Department of Homeland Security. Border patrol agents have been slammed by an influx of migrants crossing the U.S.–Mexico border since President Biden took office, with the number of crossings rising 37 percent last fiscal year over the year prior for a total of 2.38 million migrant encounters. “The dramatic increase in DHS and ICE spending — especially in light of the lack of progress on [Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals], [Temporary Protected Status], and expanding paths to citizenship — cut against the promises our party has made to immigrant communities across the country,” Ocasio-Cortez said. She also criticized the choice to use a single omnibus package to fund the government rather than appropriations bills for each agency. “From the beginning of this negotiation, we made clear to Democratic leadership that we must keep the practice of voting on funding bills by agency — particularly controversial agencies like DHS — so that Members would not be forced to betray one part of their district in service of expediency,” she said. “We were successful in this approach last year, and looked forward to supporting such a package this year.” However, in a post on Instagram, the progressive congresswoman separately lauded the passage of the bill because it will provide funding for 15 projects that will benefit her constituents in the Bronx and Queens.

Statement of Solidarity with Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez on Omnibus “No” Vote - Democratic Socialists of America (DSA)-  The Democratic Socialists of America stand in solidarity with our endorsed member, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who courageously voted against expanded ICE and law enforcement funding and massive military spending increases. After passing in the Senate last Thursday, the House on Friday approved a $1.7 trillion package for the FY 2023 federal budget, passing by a 225-201 vote with Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez casting the sole Democratic vote against it, and Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib voting present.Of the $1.7 trillion, $772.5B was allocated for discretionary non-military funding. This includes important initiatives such as historic increases in funding for the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) and the National Science Foundation, as well as important Community Project Funding.  But it also includes $82B for the Department of Homeland Security, of which $8.5B is for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and $16.5B for Customs and Border Protection (CBP). This is an enormous 17% funding increase for CBP, much of it dedicated to hiring new agents. Meanwhile, there has been no progress on comprehensive immigration reform and the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, the agency that administers the country’s naturalization and immigration system (including the backlog of asylum claims), is set to receive less funding than last year. The Justice Department is also set for a 10% funding increase, much of which will go to staffing federal law enforcement agencies such as the FBI, Drug Enforcement Agency and U.S. Marshals Service. All the while, domestic funding allocates no dollars whatsoever for COVID.   The omnibus bill also contains an unprecedented $858B for the Pentagon, a massive $80.4B increase from last year. This 10% increase is well above the 4% increase originally sought by Biden and a $117.9B increase over the bill Trump signed into law in 2021. The Department of Defense (DoD) is set to be allocated a colossal $140B just to produce new weapons systems. This is coming on the heels of DoD failing its fifth consecutive audit (since initiating its first-ever independent financial audit back in 2017, it has never passed one), only managing to account for 39 percent of its $3.5 trillion in assets. This Omnibus bill also allocates an additional $47B in new funds for Ukraine, with $29B in military spending, and $20B of that going to US weapon contractors. This puts the total Ukraine spending over $115B, with $80B in military spending. This is a blatant and massive handout to the weapons manufacturing industry. To put this in perspective, this $80B increase alone is 3,200 times the increase the NLRB is getting for labor rights for 2023 — showing just how much the ruling class values the war machine vs. scraps for workers. The military and law enforcement spending here is not merely outrageous, it’s unconscionable. To add insult to injury, Congress was prevented by Democratic Leadership from deliberating on this bill agency by agency as it had previously done. We congratulate the Congresswoman for exposing how this bill pits different sections of our movement against each other, and how the ruling class keeps forcing unacceptable choices on how to fund our society. We are fighting for a world where workers’ rights and the support our communities deserve are no longer lumped together with violent increases in militarized spending. We reiterate our demand that ICE be abolished and stand stridently against the US war machine.

The worst thing about Mitch McConnell's $1.7 trillion omnibus spending package | Fox News -  Just before jetting off to enjoy his Christmas holiday, Mitch McConnell left a nice lump of coal for America with his $1.7 trillion (or more!) omnibus spending package. There’s a lot to hate in this package, between millions for LGBTQ museums in New York or extra funding for the House Diversity and Inclusion office. But the most galling thing about the omnibus is this juxtaposition: More than $400 million is dished out to American "allies" (one cannot put enough quotes around that word) like Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, and Tunisia to assist them in their "border security." Meanwhile, back in America, the millions allocated to our own border patrol are not allowed "to acquire, maintain, or extend border security technology and capabilities, except for technology and capabilities to improve Border Patrol processing." Put another way, extra funding for Customs and Border Protection is only allowed to assist the escalating human flood at the border, while no new spending is allowed to stop it.A century ago, and for all human history before that, having a coherent border that one could defend was what separated a state from the state of nature. But today, a border is a luxury. A luxury so valuable, it turns out, that it’s only available to the Third World.The concept of the "Third World" originated in the Cold War. In that era, America and its close allies were the First World. The Soviet Union and its satellites were the Second World. And the rest of the planet, the dozens of countries contested between the two superpowers, were the "Third World." Less developed and less industrialized, the "Third World" was soon equated with poverty and deprivation. Yet today, even as the Third World remains poor, there are countless privileges that still exist in the Third World yet are vanishing from our supposedly wealthier country. In the Third World, you can have a real border, and America will even pay for it to have walls and fences and armed guards. In the Third World, you’ll still find schools that teach pupils to love their country and appreciate its history and achievements, instead of loathe them. Do I think Turkey is a particularly amazing country? Not really – but most Turks do, and I’m glad they think that way.In Mexico, childhood obesity is a major problem – so much so that the government has banned the cartoon mascots that adorn cereal boxes in America. What it doesn’t have is the ludicrous campaign against "fat-shaming" that America has.In the Third World, people are still tethered enough to basic reality that the worst poisons of the American psychological empire can’t take root. You know what I’m talking about: The transgender frenzy is the ultimate "First World problem," a development so absurd that only a wealthy country could get away with indulging it for a moment Thanks to the latest omnibus, Ukraine will get another $45 billion to help them in their war against Russia. It’s not surprising. When you are a third-world nation, you have the privilege of being allowed to resist an invasion. If only America had that right as well.

What's another $1.7T in the omnibus when you've taken the national debt to $31.4T? - Congress concluded last week the annual shenanigans with funding the government. And while the body’s refusal to get the omnibus done before the 59th minute of the 11th hour is grounds for harsh criticism, its shirking and dodging is only a tiny part of the problem, which is how utterly irresponsible DC is with its checkbook.  The $1.7 trillion omnibus itself was loaded with laughable pieces of pork — self-named monuments for various legislators; a chauffeur for the IRS commissioner — but it’s just the latest in a long trend for DC’s free spending and ever-growing government bureaucracy. Biden and his fellow Democrats have been horrific on this issue, especially in light of the trillions they’ve put on the nation’s credit card.Indeed, Biden has presided so far over a jump in the national debt from around $28 trillion to $31.43 trillion, all as the hideous American Rescue Plan ($1.9 trillion), CHIPS Act ($280 billion) and infrastructure bill ($1.2 trillion) were rammed through. All these outlays, especially the ones financed with debt, have only fueled the worst inflation in decades. The nation’s debt, of course, has been growing alarmingly even before Biden. Under his old boss, Barack Obama, it jumped 77%, and under President Donald Trump 28%, largely due to massive COVID-related outlays. It’ll surely skyrocket even further if Biden and his drunken-sailor comrades get their way.The last time the US debt-to-GDP ratio was under 100% was 2011. The deficit is also growing by leaps and bounds: It was $1.4 trillion at the end of fiscal 2022, the fourth highest on record.What this means, barring a return to fiscal sanity coupled with a decent stretch of solid economic growth, is massive tax hikes for future generations or colossal service cuts at the most basic level of government. Somebody has to pay for all this.

Biden signs $1.7 trillion government funding package -President Biden on Thursday signed the sprawling $1.7 trillion spending package to fund the government into next fall, wrapping up a year of several bipartisan legislative accomplishments for the president. The president signed the package in St. Croix, where he is spending the New Year’s holiday with his family. The White House received the bill from Congress late afternoon on Wednesday, according to the White House, and the bill was brought to the U.S. Virgin Islands on Thursday. The House passed the measure on Dec. 23, one day after the Senate approved it with a large bipartisan majority, 68-29. The House passed it largely along party lines in a 225-201-1 vote. Biden last week signed a stopgap measure that Congress had passed to keep the government open past an earlier Dec. 23 deadline. The short-term bill, which moved the deadline to Dec. 30, was intended to allow time for the more than 4,000-page omnibus to make its way to Biden’s desk for his signature. The massive package includes $45 billion in military and economic aid for Ukraine and $38 billion for emergency disaster assistance. It also includes reforms to the Electoral Count Act in response to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack at the U.S. Capitol, clarifying that the vice president does not have the power to unilaterally overturn the results of a presidential election. Biden hailed those provisions and others in a statement following the passage last week. He noted the package also includes funding for cancer research, to hire more police officers and for the Violence Against Women Act. He further touted its funding for the PACT Act, which he signed into law in August to expand health benefits to veterans exposed to toxic substances. The spending bill is one of several major bipartisan legislative wins in Biden’s first two years in office. Others include the $1 trillion infrastructure law, the bipartisan gun law and the CHIPS and Science Act.

Biden signs $1.7T spending bill after it’s flown 1,500 miles to St. Croix - - The omnibus flies commercial.  As thousands of travelers remained stranded at airports across the country amid a chaotic few days for the airline industry, the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill scored a ticket to St. Croix for President Biden to affix his signature at the tropical villa where he’ll ring in the new year. The White House told NBC News on Thursday that the more than 4,000-page bill was delivered to the 80-year-old president by White House staff on a regularly scheduled commercial flight.  It’s unclear if the mammoth piece of legislation was checked or flew carry-on. “Today, I signed the bipartisan omnibus bill, ending a year of historic progress,” Biden announced in a Twitter post that showed him approving the 4,000-page-plus bill.  “It’ll invest in medical research, safety, veteran health care, disaster recovery, VAWA funding – and gets crucial assistance to Ukraine. Looking forward to more in 2023,” Biden added.   A White House official told Fox Business reporter Edward Lawrence that the massive document was “transported to St. Croix for POTUS to sign” in order to meet a Dec. 30 deadline for the government to remain funded. The president, first lady Jill Biden, and other members of the Biden clan traveled to St. Croix in the US Virgin Islands late Tuesday. They will celebrate the New Year at the island abode of wealthy business owners Bill and Connie Neville.

Republicans betray voters on omnibus spending bill | Fox News - Eighteen Republican senators voted for the monstrosity known as the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill, thus forever relinquishing their claim to belong to a party committed to less spending, smaller government, and personal responsibility.  The 4,100-page measure, which I can almost guarantee no one has read in its entirety, is loaded with more pork than Porky Pig carries on his overweight body.  Sen. Rand Paul, R-KY, is among the few calling out his colleagues for their spending orgy, though few seem to care so long as they are getting their share of the largesse. In what he calls his annual "Festivus Report," Sen. Paul lists some of the financial sins committed by this Congress. They include what he called "a whopping $482,276,543,907 of waste, including a steroid-induced hamster fight club, a study to see if kids love their pets, and a study of the romantic patterns of parrots and coffee machines for the Pentagon." That's just for starters.  The conservative Heritage Foundation lists some more:

• $1.2 million for "LGBTQIA+ Pride Centers" and another $1.2 million for "support services for DACA recipients" (aka helping migrants with taxpayer funds) at San Diego Community College.
• $477,000 for the Equity Institute in Rhode Island to endow teachers with "anti-racism virtual labs."
• $1 million for Zora's House in Ohio, a "coworking and community space" for "women and gender-expansive people of color."
• $3 million for the American LGBTQ+ Museum in New York City.
• $3.6 million for a Michelle Obama Trail in Georgia.
• $750,000 for "LGBTQ and Gender Non-Conforming housing" in Albany, N.Y.
• $2 million for the "Great Blacks in Wax" museum in Baltimore.
• $856,000 for an "LGBTQ Center" in New York.
• $750,000 for the "TransLatin@ Coalition" to provide "workforce development programs and supportive services for Transgender and Gender nonconforming and Intersex (TGI) immigrant women in Los Angeles."

No wonder they waited until after the election to pass what Heritage rightly calls "a betrayal of America's voters' wishes" as expressed at the ballot box. Can anyone who voted for this embarrassment explain why any of it is the responsibility of the federal government? An additional question: with the debt at $32 trillion and rising, is there a red line that members would not cross? In other words, is there any limit to their spending? How much more debt would they accept?
As noted in previous columns, no nation has ever been able to survive this level of national debt. Taxpayer money is being wasted as is the money we are borrowing from other nations (and printing). It is the major cause of inflation that is harming the buying power of most Americans. We are ignoring the powerful proverb "waste not, want not" that was followed by Americans of the World War II generation. They were called "great" for this and other reasons we are also ignoring.

Defense contractor shares surge as US doubles NATO arms sales - The year 2022 concludes with a shocking death toll: according to figures cited by US General Mark Miley, 200,000 people have been killed or injured in the fratricidal war in Ukraine. This horrific loss of life has been the basis for the generation of vast profits for the arms manufacturers. Under conditions in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen by 10 percent for the year as a whole, the share prices of US defense contractors have surged. Over the past 12 months, the share price of Northrop Grumman has increased 40 percent and Raytheon is up by nearly 17 percent, while Lockheed Martin has surged by 37 percent. By some estimates, military spending by the United States and its allies is growing at a level without precedent since the end of the Second World War. The number and cash value of arms sales approved by the United States to its NATO allies has nearly doubled in 2022 compared to 2021, according to an analysis by Foreign Policy magazine. Foreign Policy wrote: “In 2021, the U.S. government approved 14 possible major arms sales to NATO allies worth around $15.5 billion. In 2022, that jumped up to 24 possible major arms sales worth around $28 billion, including $1.24 billion worth of arms sales to expected future NATO member Finland.” In December, Germany announced an $8.4 billion plan to purchase dozens of F-35 fighters from US arms manufacturers. That same month, the US approved a plan to sell over a hundred M1 Abrams battle tanks to Poland.Last week, US President Joe Biden signed into law the $858 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The final bill passed by Congress was $45 billion larger than that requested by the White House, which was in turn larger than the request by the Pentagon. The budget marks an 8 percent increase over last year and a 30 percent increase in military spending over the 2016 Pentagon budget. The massive surge in military spending comes as the typical US household has seen its real income fall by 3 percent in the past 12 months. The bill increases funding for every single military department and weapons program. The US Navy will get $32 billion for new warships, including three Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and two Virginia-class nuclear submarines. And the Pentagon is authorized to purchase a further 36 F-35 aircraft, each costing approximately $89 million.

Air Force Grounds Entire B-2 Fleet After Emergency Landing — The Air Force has grounded its entire fleet of B-2 stealth bombers following an emergency landing and fire earlier this month, and none of the strategic aircraft will perform flyovers at this years' college bowl games. A bomber experienced an in-flight malfunction on Dec. 10, forcing it to make an emergency landing at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, where it caught fire. The fire was extinguished and there were no injuries. The standdown is significant in that there are fewer than 20 stealth bombers in the entire fleet and the aircraft provides, along with the B-52 Stratofortress, the air leg of the nation's nuclear triad. The B-2 has been regularly deployed to the Indo-Pacific and more recently to Europe as a show of force. During the standdown the entire fleet will be inspected, 509th Bomb Wing spokeswoman Air Force Master Sgt. Beth Del Vecchio said. The B-2 was scheduled to fly over the 2023 Rose Parade and Rose Bowl Game but it will be replaced by the B-1 Lancer, the 509th Bomb Wing said in a statement.

US waged war on Afghans, indulged in corruption, says former president Karzai -- Afghanistan’s former president Hamid Karzai has blamed the United States for the fate of the war-ravaged country, saying the protracted war “was not our war" but used by the US and its allies against the people of Afghanistan. “I was not a partner of the United States in that war against Afghan villages and homes. I changed from the moment I recognized that this war that is fought in the name of defeating terrorism is actually a war against the Afghan people,” Karzai said in an interview with the Washington Post. “I called the Taliban ‘brothers’ for that reason.” Karzai said he had a host of disagreements over various issues with the United States. He also accused Pakistan, which entered into an alliance with the so-called US "war on terror" following the 9/11 attacks in 2001, of sheltering militants. “They knew, the Americans, that the sanctuaries were in Pakistan. They told us that repeatedly. And they would bomb Afghan villages. They would come and tell us that Pakistan was training extremists and terrorists," the former Afghan president said. "Then, they would go and pay them billions of dollars. When this was repeated and repeated, I had only one conclusion. The conclusion was either the Americans are doing this on purpose, or that they are extremely naive and out of touch with the realities of this region.” Karzai said he took responsibility for corruption in the country, while also stressing that the US was the biggest player. “…Yes, there was corruption, but to blame Afghans or the Afghan government for it, is wrong. We do take responsibility. I would never say there was no corruption. But who was responsible for it? Afghans or our international partners? Mainly our international partners, and they know it. They will admit it.”

You’re Not Actually Helping When You “Support” Protesters In Empire-Targeted Nations Caitlin Johnstone - --Truthout has a recent article titled “The Left Can Support Protesters in China Without Shilling for US Imperialism” with a subtitle asserting that “Chinese workers and Uyghurs need solidarity from leftists worldwide,” and it at no point attempts to defend either one of those titular claims.  The article features comments from New York University’s Rebecca E Karl and is replete with leftist-sounding phraseology like “heteronormative patriarchy” and “the hegemonic hold of white power,” but what it does not contain is any attempt to substantiate the claim that the left can support protesters in China without shilling for US imperialism or the claim that they need solidarity from leftists worldwide. This is because those claims are entirely baseless. I run into such claims all the time and often challenge them when I encounter them, and nobody has ever once been able to logically and coherently explain to me what is gained by leftists in the English-speaking world displaying “support” or “solidarity” with protesters in nations like China and Iran that are targeted for regime change by the US-centralized empire. Nobody has ever once been able to provide me with a good explanation of how leftists can throw their weight behind narratives that are being exploited for propaganda against empire-targeted governments without assisting those propaganda campaigns. This is because no good explanation exists.  And I don’t mean to single out Truthout for this; pushing leftists to help decry empire-targeted governments is something that’s done all the time by western leftist and leftish media. Jacobin ran an article last month insisting that “the international left must formulate a way to effectively express solidarity” with protesters in Iran, and Shock Doctrine author Naomi Klein was recently making the same case regarding Chinese protesters as well. Any time there are protests in an empire-targeted country, we are presented with Official Leftists admonishing us that we must add our voices to the mainstream fray in cheering them on. And it’s always for unclear, inarticulately argued reasons. It’s generally framed as something that leftists should just assume is inherently true because it’s presented with leftist-sounding jargon like “solidarity”, but nobody ever clarifies what actual, concrete benefits are delivered to protesters in empire-targeted governments by expressions of solidarity from the west, or how those benefits outweigh the negative drawbacks of helping to amplify condemnations of a government that the empire is trying to manufacture consent for aggressions against.

U.S. weighs new measures for travelers from China - The U.S. government is considering imposing new Covid rules for travelers from China, officials said, citing concerns over virus-related data released by the Chinese government. “There are mounting concerns in the international community on the ongoing COVID-19 surges in China and the lack of transparent data, including viral genomic sequence data, being reported from the PRC,” officials said in a statement late Tuesday. “Without this data, it is becoming increasingly difficult for public health officials to ensure that they will be able to identify any potential new variants and take prompt measures to reduce the spread,” the officials said. “The U.S. is following the science and advice of public health experts, consulting with partners, and considering taking similar steps we can take to protect the American people,” the officials said. The officials pointed to measures taken by Japan and Malaysia – adding that India and the World Health Organization have also expressed their concern about the situation in China. The U.S. officials’ comments come after Japan’s recent measures which require a negative Covid test for travelers arriving from mainland China from Dec. 30 – as China faces a sharp surge in infections nationwide following an abrupt reopening. Travelers from China without a valid vaccination certificate will also be required to take a pre-departure test, the notice from Japan’s health ministry added. The measures will not apply to those traveling from Hong Kong and Macao, according to the notice. When asked for comment on Japan’s measures, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized a need for a “science-based” measures, without elaborating further. “The current COVID situation in the world continues to call for a science-based response approach and joint effort to ensure safe cross-border travel, keep global industrial and supply chains stable, and restore world economic growth,” deputy director-general Wang Wenbin told reporters in a Tuesday briefing. Taiwan will also conduct Covid tests on visitors arriving from mainland China, the Centers for Disease Control said in a notice, citing concern over the recent surge in infections and emerging new variants of the virus. All passengers arriving on direct flights from China and some by boat will be required to undergo a PCR test, the notice said, adding that the measures will take into effect on Jan. 1 and remain in place for a month. Visitors that test positive will have the option of home isolation, the notice said.

U.S. to require Covid tests for travelers coming from China - The Biden administration announced new testing requirements Wednesday for travelers coming to the U.S. from China — a response to soaring Covid infections in China and a sign of increased worry about the potential emergence of new variants. Beginning Jan. 5, anyone older than 2 years old arriving from China, Hong Kong or Macau will need to show a negative result from a Covid-19 test taken within two days of their flight. The requirement applies to all passengers regardless of nationality or vaccination status, those connecting through other countries, and people transferring through U.S. airports to other destinations. The move comes after the Chinese government ended its strict Covid-zero policy — hinged to mass testing, tracing and lockdowns — on Dec. 7 following mass protests in November fueled by anger about the strategy. Since then, the Chinese government has stopped publicly releasing data about infections, narrowed the definition of what constitutes Covid deaths and has downplayed anecdotal reports of a surge in Covid fatalities.    In addition to passengers coming directly from China, people arriving from South Korea’s Incheon International Airport, Toronto Pearson International Airport and Vancouver International Airport will be required to provide negative Covid-19 tests two days before flying to the U.S. if they’ve been in China within the past 10 days.“Predeparture testing and the requirement to show a negative test result decreases the number of infected passengers boarding airplanes and it will help to slow the spread of the virus as we work through identifying and understand any potential new variants that may emerge,” a federal health official told reporters on Wednesday. The official spoke on condition of anonymity as a requirement of the briefing. A senior administration official, granted anonymity to discuss the plan, said the administration was acting in part as a response what it considers a lack of adequate transparency and genomic sequencing data from the current outbreak in China. The Chinese embassy in Washington, D.C., didn’t respond to a request for comment.

White House sees light at the end of the monkeypox tunnel - In early August, as he prepared to take the stage at an international AIDS conference in Montreal, Demetre Daskalakis caught a brief glimpse into his immediate future. Protesters had stormed the room, chanting as they commandeered the microphone. For the next 10 minutes, they took turns railing against the Biden administration’s response to the spiraling mpox outbreak, accusing its leaders of standing by as the crisis worsened. “Once again, you dropped the ball,” one protester shouted from behind a sign that declared: “BIDEN YOU FAILED THE MPOX RESPONSE.” For Daskalakis , it was a visceral reminder of the depth of the challenge awaiting him. A gay man and longtime public health official, he’d spent decades working alongside these activists fighting against diseases like HIV/AIDS and now, mpox, that primarily impact the LGBTQ community. But he’d also just agreed to take on a top administration job that would make him responsible for managing the mpox crisis — and a fresh target for the frustration and anger on display in front of him. On Aug. 2, the day after his appearance in Montreal, the administration officially announced Daskalakis as the deputy coordinator for its response to mpox, the virus known then as monkeypox. “It was like, I know that I’m going to the White House!” Daskalakis said in a recent interview, recalling his thought process as he watched the scene unfold. If the episode illustrated the perils of his new position, it also provided clues about how to approach it. Since taking charge of the federal mpox operation, Daskalakis and his boss, Robert Fenton, have coordinated closely with a sprawling set of activist and public health groups. Once the administration’s harshest critics, these groups have since become partners in a response aimed at surging resources into LGBTQ communities and vaccinating those at highest risk. Since then, national case counts have plunged from an average of more than 450 a day to just five. The persistent vaccine shortages that drove fears of another entrenched epidemic have largely abated. And the groundswell of anger that once threatened to turn the administration’s shaky response into a political debacle for President Joe Biden has been reduced to a simmer.

Conway discouraged doctors from appearing on national television during coronavirus pandemic - Former White House counselor Kellyanne Conway discouraged the Trump administration from having top doctors speak on national television about the coronavirus pandemic, former White House communications director Alyssa Farah Griffin told the House panel investigating Jan. 6, 2021. Farah Griffin, who served as the head of White House communications in 2020, said Conway and other members of the campaign team advised the president to refrain from talking about COVID-19 because it was not “driving home a message” for the campaign. Conway told the president that putting doctors, including coronavirus response coordinators Deborah Birx and Anthony Fauci, on television drove his numbers down and “scared” people over the pandemic, according to Farah Griffin’s testimony. “The president told me point blank to not have them on TV anymore,” Griffin added. Farah Griffin told the panel it was a constant battle. “That was something, a battle I was always dealing with is don’t put the doctors on TV, don’t talk about — just don’t talk about coronavirus in general.” Farah Griffin’s solution to this problem was to place top doctors, like Birx and Fauci, on regional television in areas with large outbreaks for hours at a time because “no one would notice.” She said when she would sparingly put Birx or Fauci on national TV, she would get “yelled at” by Conway.

Congress, administration to probe Southwest's holiday travel meltdown -  Congress, along with the Transportation Department, will scrutinize Southwest Airlines for thousands of flights that have been canceled since the holiday weekend due to bad weather and cascading internal technical problems — including almost 70 percent of its scheduled flights on Monday in what the airline’s own CEO Bob Jordan described as the “largest scale event that I’ve ever seen.”In a statement late Tuesday, DOT said the amount of canceled and delayed flights for Southwest is “unacceptable and dramatically higher than other U.S. carriers” and threatened to “take action to hold Southwest accountable” if it fails to fulfill its obligations to customers — including cash refunds, meal and hotel vouchers where appropriate. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg also spoke with union leaders and Jordan about the issue and pressed the airline to also help its ownworkers, many of whom DOT said are “stranded alongside passengers.”  DOT, and Buttigieg in particular, have been vocal about ensuring customers get refunds, but less so in stepping in to prevent problems in the first place.Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), chair of the Senate Commerce Committee, on Tuesday said her panel plans to look into the root causes of the meltdown and its impact on travelers, and noted that Southwest’s problems over the past several days “go beyond weather. ““Many airlines fail to adequately communicate with consumers during flight cancellations,” Cantwell said in a statement. “Consumers deserve strong protections, including an updated consumer refund rule.” Last month, Cantwell and Sens. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) asked DOT to increase the kinds of compensation passengers are legally entitled to for delays or cancellations that are the airlines’ fault. And Tuesday evening, as passengers were still struggling to get around the country or were stranded in airports far from home, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) tweeted that airline consolidation “has been a disaster” and cited Southwest’s ongoing problems as the “latest example.” Warren called on DOT to use “its antitrust tools to protect fliers,” starting with blocking a pending merger of JetBlue and Spirit Airlines .

'It was absolutely shocking': BNA passenger records airport police officer threatening to arrest customers A family flying out of Nashville International Airport (BNA) documented their encounter with an airport police officer who was threatening to arrest a group of passengers waiting for details about their delayed Southwest Airlines flight. “I thought that it would be best to start recording ’cause I wasn’t sure what was going to happen,” said Amani Robinson, who filmed the exchange. On Christmas Day, Robinson and her mother, Shelley Morrison, were trying to make their flight to Cleveland, Ohio, to be with family. While inside the terminal, they were approached by a BNA police officer. The video, captured by Robinson, showed the officer saying, “You and her need to leave or you’ll be arrested for trespassing.” Morrison couldn’t believe what she was hearing. “You said you’re going to arrest people for trespassing, for being at a ticket counter for a flight?” Morrison asked in the video. “Yes, if you don’t have a valid ticket, and you’re on the secure side and refuse to leave, you will be arrested,” the officer said in response. According to a statement released by BNA officials, a Southwest Airlines employee requested for an officer to escort passengers from the C Concourse to the pre-security ticket counter. “It was absolutely shocking to experience that,” said Morrison. “I think that the comments were meant to strike a chord of fear, and honestly, for a moment, fear rose up, but then a righteous indignation kind of rose up as well.” The two were at the airport for hours after receiving several notifications that their flight to Ohio was delayed. Morrison and Robinson were among hundreds stuck at the airport, waiting for answers through the winter weather. “It was bad enough to have the difficulties with travel. We understand we can’t control the weather, but the insult to injury was our treatment by the authorities there at the airport,” explained Morrison.

Social Security denies disability benefits based on list with jobs from 1977 - He had made it through four years of denials and appeals, and Robert Heard was finally before a Social Security judge who would decide whether he qualified for disability benefits. Two debilitating strokes had left the 47-year-old electrician with halting speech, an enlarged heart and violent tremors. There was just one final step: A vocational expert hired by the Social Security Administration had to tell the judge if there was any work Heard could still do despite his condition. Heard was stunned as the expert canvassed his computer and announced his findings: He could find work as a nut sorter, a dowel inspector or an egg processor — jobs that virtually no longer exist in the United States. “Whatever it is that does those things, machines do it now,” said Heard, who lives on food stamps and a small stipend from his parents in a subsidized apartment in Tullahoma, Tenn. “Honestly, if they could see my shaking, they would see I couldn’t sort any nuts. I’d spill them all over the floor.” He was still hopeful the administrative law judge hearing his claim for $1,300 to $1,700 per month in benefits had understood his limitations. But while the judge agreed that Heard had multiple, severe impairments, he denied him benefits, writing that he had “job opportunities” in three occupations that are nearly obsolete and agreeing with the expert’s dubious claim that 130,000 positions were still available sorting nuts, inspecting dowels and processing eggs. Every year, thousands of claimants like Heard find themselves blocked at this crucial last step in the arduous process of applying for disability benefits, thanks to labor market data that was last updated 45 years ago. The jobs are spelled out in an exhaustive publication known as the Dictionary of Occupational Titles. The vast majority of the 12,700 entries were last updated in 1977. The Department of Labor, which originally compiled the index, abandoned it 31 years ago in a sign of the economy’s shift from blue-collar manufacturing to information and services. Social Security, though, still relies on it at the final stage when a claim is reviewed. The government, using strict vocational rules, assesses someone’s capacity to work and if jobs exist “in significant numbers” that they could still do. The dictionary remains the backbone of a $200 billion disability system that provides benefits to 15 million people. It lists 137 unskilled, sedentary jobs — jobs that most closely match the skills and limitations of those who apply for disability benefits. But in reality, most of these occupations were offshored, outsourced, and shifted to skilled work decades ago. Many have disappeared altogether.

Supreme Court blocks lifting of Trump-era Title 42 border policy - The Supreme Court on Tuesday blocked the lifting of the Trump-era Title 42 order on migration, forcing the Biden administration to leave in place the federal directive that has prevented the entry of millions of asylum seekers at the southern border. The high court’s action spares the Biden administration from a court-ordered winding down of the policy, as both Republicans and Democrats warned that the U.S. wasn’t prepared to handle the likely influx of migrants who had been gathering along the U.S.-Mexico border. Administration officials have favored ending the public-health-based order, but have scrambled to finalize plans to deal with the anticipated surge. They have also been weighing policies to further restrict the number of migrants eligible for asylum in the U.S. The Supreme Court acted on a 5-4 vote, with the court’s three liberals joined by conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch in dissent. The ruling came in response to an emergency application filed last week by a group of GOP-led states wanting to keep in place the Title 42 order, which was implemented at the beginning of the Covid pandemic and has been used more than 2 million times to expel migrants on public health grounds during both the Trump and Biden administrations. The group’s request followed its failed plea with the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals earlier this month to stop the policy from being lifted. The Supreme Court’s order Tuesday essentially preserves the status quo at the border while the high court receives full briefing and argument on the legal issues involved. The court indicated that oral arguments on the Title 42 policy will take place in February or March. That makes a final decision likely by late June. Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan did not explain their decisions to dissent. In his written dissent, Gorsuch, a Trump appointee, said he did not discount the states’ concerns about a potential border crisis but said “the emergency” on which the Title 42 orders were adopted “has long since lapsed.” “For my part, I do not discount the States’ concerns,” wrote Gorsuch, who was joined by Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson. “But the current border crisis is not a COVID crisis. And courts should not be in the business of perpetuating administrative edicts designed for one emergency only because elected officials have failed to address a different emergency. We are a court of law, not policymakers of last resort.”

Supreme Court keeps Title 42 immigration limits in place indefinitely — The Supreme Court is keeping pandemic-era limits on immigration in place indefinitely, dashing hopes of immigration advocates who had been anticipating their end this week. In a ruling Tuesday, the Supreme Court extended a temporary stay that Chief Justice John Roberts issued last week. Under the court’s order, the case will be argued in February and the stay will be maintained until the justices decide the case. The limits were put in place under then-President Donald Trump at the beginning of the pandemic. Under the restrictions, officials have expelled asylum-seekers inside the United States 2.5 million times and turned away most people who requested asylum at the border on grounds of preventing the spread of COVID-19. The restrictions are often referred to as Title 42 in reference to a 1944 public health law. “We are deeply disappointed for all the desperate asylum seekers who will continue to suffer because of Title 42, but we will continue fighting to eventually end the policy,” said Lee Gelernt, a lawyer with the American Civil Liberties Union which had been arguing to end Title 42′s use. Immigration advocates sued to end the use of Title 42, saying the policy goes against American and international obligations to people fleeing to the U.S. to escape persecution. They’ve also argued that the policy is outdated as coronavirus treatments improve. A federal judge sided with them in November and set a Dec. 21 deadline to end the policy. Conservative-leaning states appealed to the Supreme Court, warning that an increase in migration would take a toll on public services and cause an “unprecedented calamity” that they said the federal government had no plan to deal with. Roberts, who handles emergency matters that come from federal courts in the nation’s capital, issued a stay to give the court time to more fully consider both sides’ arguments. The federal government asked the Supreme Court to reject the states’ effort while also acknowledging that ending the restrictions abruptly would likely lead to “disruption and a temporary increase in unlawful border crossings.” The Supreme Court’s decision comes as thousands of migrants have gathered on the Mexican side of the border, filling shelters and worrying advocates who are scrambling to figure out how to care for them. The precise issue before the court is a complicated, largely procedural question of whether the states should be allowed to intervene in the lawsuit, which had pitted advocates for the migrants against the federal government. A similar group of states won a lower court order in a different court district preventing the end of the restrictions after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced in April that it was ending use of the policy.

Cruel and unconstitutional: US Supreme Court maintains Title 42 exclusion of migrants seeking asylumOn Tuesday, the US Supreme Court issued an order extending the federal policy known as Title 42 that bars most border migrants from filing asylum claims. The order combines cruelty towards the hundreds of thousands seeking sanctuary at the US-Mexico border with a green light to fascistic governors of Republican-ruled states who are usurping federal authority over immigration policy. It is both an act of barbarism—Title 42 has been used to expel more than 2 million migrants since 2020—and a further manifestation of the deepening political crisis in the United States. Conflicts within the ruling elite threaten to explode into open warfare, whether in the streets, as on January 6, 2021, or through state governments defying the US Constitution and seeking to assert an independent power to oppress and persecute immigrant workers. Title 42, a provision of the 80-year-old Public Health Act, was invoked by President Trump in March 2020 at the urging of his fascistic counselor Stephen Miller, who was in charge of immigration policy at the White House. Miller seized on the COVID-19 pandemic, not to safeguard the American people from a deadly virus, but to employ it as a pretext for a further crackdown on immigrants at the southern border. Under Title 42, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) can bar migrants from entering the United States if they are believed to be carrying a communicable disease. The provision had never before been applied to all immigrants, regardless of their country of origin. And prior to the Trump administration, it had never been used as a weapon for an immigration restriction policy. As in other major policy areas, the Biden administration continued the war on immigrants launched by Trump, including the use of Title 42 to block migrants at the border who sought to file asylum requests. In the course of the past two years, under the supposedly more caring Democrats, the US Border Patrol and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have proceeded with the same brutality as under Trump, using many of the same weapons.

Newly released records show top DeSantis adviser used private email and alias to coordinate migrant flights – — Gov. Ron DeSantis’ top safety official helped write language that helped a former legal client secure a state contract to oversee a controversial program to fly migrants from the southern border to Martha’s Vineyard.In the process, the official, Larry Keefe, used a non-public email address that made it appear that emails were coming from “Clarice Starling,” the main character from “The Silence of the Lambs” novel.The newly released records show that Keefe, who served as a U.S. Attorney in the Trump administration, used encrypted messaging apps and a private email address from “Clarice Starling” when communicating with James Montgomerie, CEO of Vertol Systems, a Destin, Fla.-based company the administration paid at least $1.5 million to coordinate the migrant flights. They also show Keefe helping Vertol, who he represented when in private legal practice, draft invoice language the company used when submitting its proposal to the Florida Department of Transportation.The bizarre twist in the ongoing saga was revealed in records released by the DeSantis administration last Thursday, just days before the holiday weekend. The records were first reported by NBC6 . They shed light on the layers of secretive steps the DeSantis administration was taking when coordinating the flights, which included sending about 50 mostly Venezuelan asylum-seekers from the southern border to Martha’s Vineyard in mid-September. Additional flights to Delaware, the home state of President Joe Biden, were planned, but never occurred.

Greg Abbott Says Texas Has Bused Nearly 16,000 Migrants To Sanctuary Cities This Year | ZeroHedge  -Gov. Greg Abbott on Tuesday said the state has bused nearly 16,000 migrants to sanctuary cities this year. “Texas has bused over 15,900 migrants to sanctuary cities,” Abbott wrote on Twitter.  “ … We’re providing relief to local communities overwhelmed by President Biden’s open border policies.” Since April, the Republican governor has transported at least 8,900 migrants to Washington, D.C., 4,900 to New York City, 1,500 to Chicago, and 630 to Philadelphia. Late Saturday, three busloads of migrants from Texas arrived in Washington, D.C., where they were dropped off outside the Naval Observatory. Local relief agencies were on-hand to assist the estimated 110 to 130 migrants who arrived near Vice President Kamala Harris’ home.Blankets were provided for those without coats. The temperature was in the teens when the migrants arrived. Organizers quickly moved them onto awaiting buses that took them to a nearby church, where they were provided with meals and clothing.“This is a welcome effort that we’ve been doing since the first bus arrived,” Amy Fischer, an organizer with the Migrant Solidarity Mutual Aid Network, told WJLA News.“D.C. just continues to show up as a welcoming city that is always ready and willing to open their arms to welcome people, whether it’s Christmas eve, whether its 9 degrees outside or 90 degrees outside.”

Santos struggles in Fox News interview about lying and integrity - Rep.-elect George Santos had a difficult time explaining away the discrepancies in his résumé during a Fox News interview with Tulsi Gabbard, who came down hard on the New York Republican for his recent controversy. As Santos conceded that several lies he made about his credentials were “a mistake,” Gabbard — a former Democratic congresswoman from Hawaii and the guest host of “Tucker Carlson Tonight” — refused to let him off the hook on Tuesday, pushing him on the definition of integrity and his “blatant lies.” “My question is, do you have no shame?” Gabbard asked at one point. Santos, elected in November to represent New York’s 3rd Congressional District, on Long Island, came under scrutiny last week when The New York Times published an investigation calling out inconsistencies in his background. On Monday, the congressman-elect told the New York Post that he had indeed lied about several of his credentials, admitting to having never worked “directly” for Goldman Sachs and Citigroup and not graduating from Baruch College, nor “from any institution of higher learning.” Santos in the lead-up to the midterm elections had also fabricated elements of his family’s history, including that his mother was Jewish and that his maternal grandparents escaped the Holocaust during World War II. After referring to himself publicly as “half Jewish” and a “Latino Jew” during his campaign, Santos conceded to the New York Post on Monday that he is “clearly Catholic.” Gabbard on Tuesday night pressed Santos on the details of his Jewish heritage, asking him to explain a letter his campaign had sent out in which the congressman-elect refers to himself as a “proud American jew.” Santos doubled down on his claim that although he was raised a “practicing Catholic,” his “heritage is Jewish” and has always considered himself “Jew-ish.” Gabbard repeatedly called out Santos’ “blatant lies” throughout the interview, frequently cutting him off and redirecting her questions as he tried to deflect by bringing up alleged lies Democratic politicians have told and highlighting issues he had campaigned on. She specifically came down hard on the congressman-elect at one point when he contended that “everybody wants to nit-pick at me” but said he still remained “committed in delivering results for the American people.

Santos scandal crashes into McCarthy speakership battle - While some of George Santos’ soon-to-be colleagues are encouraging investigations into his many resume fabrications, Kevin McCarthy’s speakership battle in a narrow majority is complicating his fate. The New York Republican, who has admitted to fabricating much of his personal and professional biography, is set to be sworn into Congress the same day the House will start votes for a new speaker. But House GOP leader McCarthy, with only four party votes to spare and an open rebellion among a handful of House conservatives, needs all the support he can get — even if it comes from a member-elect steeped in scandal. One Republican has openly called for an internal investigation into Santos and others have privately said he’s likely to face probes. Meanwhile, McCarthy and other members of leadership have remained silent about Santos’ admitted fabrications about his past, including his Jewish faith, that he worked for Goldman Sachs and Citigroup and that he graduated from Baruch College. “At a minimum, it was a colossal lack of judgment that has now put the conference in a very difficult position,” retiring Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.), who represented a similarly moderate district in the state, said of Santos. “Do they defend someone they know has made several material misstatements about his background? Or do they cut him loose with a razor-thin majority?” Katko added, calling it a “no-win situation.” House Republicans generally believe Santos’ future will become clearer once they have an official speaker. But right now, the Republican leader has five members threatening publicly to oppose his speakership bid on Jan. 3, which happens to be the same number required to block him from reaching the needed 218 votes. And the party is buckling in for potentially multiple votes, marking only the second time since the Civil War that the speakership race would go beyond a first ballot. “McCarthy can’t do anything official until McCarthy is speaker. So that needs to happen before anything else,” said one House Republican who plans to support the California Republican, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “But as for Santos, I think his issues may cost him his chance at a seat in financial services until everything is sorted out. The questions around his finances are a real issue.”

Scrutiny turns to George Santos’s campaign funding As new revelations about the falsehoods Rep.-elect George Santos (R-N.Y.) has told about his background continue to emerge, several peculiarities in the incoming congressman’s finances are facing heavy scrutiny — and could prove to be his greatest liability. Santos’s finances and financial disclosures are the subject of a federal investigation, reports revealed this week. “Given that much of Santos’s biography has apparently been fabricated, it’s possible the most troubling components of that fabrication — from a campaign finance perspective, anyway — have not yet been fully revealed,” said Saurav Ghosh, the director of federal campaign finance reform for the Campaign Legal Center. Santos admitted on Monday to making several false claims about his educational and professional background in his campaign for Congress, after a New York Times report called into question the veracity of much of his résumé. Despite previous claims that he graduated from Baruch College and worked for both Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, Santos told the New York Post that he “didn’t graduate from any institution of higher learning” and “never worked directly” with either firm. “A lot of people overstate in their résumés, or twist a little bit,” Santos said in an interview with local radio station WABC-AM. “I’m not saying I’m not guilty of that, I’m just saying, I’ve done so much good work in my career. I’m not a criminal who defrauded the entire country.” However, the discrepancies in what Santos has said about his background go beyond his résumé, according to recent reports. After previously claiming to be a “proud American Jew” whose maternal grandparents fled anti-Jewish persecution in Europe during World War II, for instance, Santos told the New York Post on Monday that he identifies religiously as Catholic and that he “never claimed to be Jewish.”

Pelosi announces maximum salary for House staff being raised to $212,000 - Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) announced on Friday that the House would once again raise its staff salary cap, bringing the maximum salary up to $212,100. “As you know, our hard-working, patriotic Congressional staffers are integral to the functioning of the House of Representatives: ensuring this institution can effectively carry out our legislative and constituent responsibilities,” Pelosi said in a Dear Colleague letter. “To that end, we must do all we can to retain and recruit the best talent in our nation — and to build a Congressional workforce that reflects the communities we are honored to serve,” she added. Pelosi raised the maximum salary for House staff to $199,300 last year, after more than a decade of stagnating staff salaries in the wake of the lawmaker pay freeze put in place in 2009. The salary cap was raised again in May to $203,700 to maintain parity with Senate staffers.Following the 2021 increase in the salary cap, House staff can now make more than their lawmaker bosses. Rank-and-file members of Congress earn $174,000 a year, while members of congressional leadership earn slightly more.  Pelosi also instituted a minimum $45,000 salary for House staffers in May — the first time that Congress has had a salary floor for its staff.

Larger squad? How the Hill’s newest progressives plan to wield power. - Even as House Democrats shrink into the minority, the voices of progressive lawmakers — inspired by the so-called squad — are set to grow only louder. An optimistic crop of liberal first-year lawmakers is confident they can pry back the majority from Republicans in two years. In the meantime, add another five members, aligned with the liberal Working Families Party, to the ever-expanding list of those vowing to push President Joe Biden’s administration to the left on priorities like workers’ rights, climate change and immigration.And they’re already tuned in to a cliché critical to commanding Congress: There’s power in numbers. While several soon-to-be members had already come together on the campaign trail and grew closer as they descended on Washington, they’ve also forged alliances with other incoming lawmakers they met for the first time at orientation.“I think that as legislators, our job is to agenda-set. It’s to govern, it’s to create policy, but it’s also to put forth that best case, and bring people over to us,” said Rep.-elect Summer Lee (D-Pa.), one of two Justice Democrat-backed candidates to win a general election. “That’s what progressives have to do, whether we’re in the majority or the minority. … That’s going to be where a lot of power is: in expanding the realm of what’s possible.”   They’re all set to join a Democratic Caucus that’s becoming younger, more diverse and more liberal. It’s potentially more hospitable terrain than what the “squad” faced four years ago, when the original group of four progressive lawmakers became a favored target for Republicans — and even some moderate Democrats. Lee and other lawmakers are looking to the group of six as an example of the power those with similar values can wield, despite being relatively junior legislators with little concrete congressional influence. It’s potentially more hospitable terrain than what the “squad” faced four years ago, when the original group of four progressive lawmakers became a favored target for Republicans — and even some moderate Democrats.

Thomas Frank on How the Feckless Democrats Trashed the American Middle Class -  by Yves Smith  -- I’m not sure what to make of this Thomas Frank talk, which he gave to “activists” all over America. I assume the audience you see briefly in the opening is representative: old enough to believe in the New Deal, and by their attire, not members of the PMC. Frank gives a pointed history of how the Democrats abandoned the working class and went all in for “smart”: if you hadn’t at least gone to college, you weren’t deserving. He has some wonderfully acute asides, like on the Democrats’ love for wildly complicated programs. Yet he’s bereft of solutions. He bemoans the tendency of the flyover working class to vote Republican, seeing Republicans as con artists. Yet he effectively admits the Democrats are hardly better, while trying not to do so (see his painful defense of Biden). He seems not to comprehend the desire for punishment, particularly when the Democrats sneer that the lower orders should be grateful for the crumbs they receive.Frank wants a movement to pressure or perhaps even take over the Democrats, one that demands a decent standard of living for ordinary Americans. Yet his only model is the Populists, which took nearly a generation of grass roots organizing to gain momentum. An oddly, he fails to mention Bernie Sanders, whose 2016 campaign had a strong economic message, while his 2020 push watered that message down to focus more on inclusivity…perhaps due to the influence of the “professionals” whose help he was told was necessary to win?

Biden's 2022 solution to student debt could fall apart in 2023 – For President Joe Biden, deciding to cancel student debt might have been the easy part. Getting it done will prove to be harder. After a drawn-out, intraparty debate over the wisdom of forgiving student debt, Biden heads into the third year of his presidency — and a likely reelection campaign — fighting to keep his signature education policy alive. The plan heads to the Supreme Court in February, where the conservative majority will weigh the legality of canceling up to $20,000 for more than 40 million borrowers. The Education Department approved some 16 million borrowers for the program but their relief remains in limbo as the court decides. Progressives who spent more than a year pushing Biden to cancel debt in the first place say they’re mobilizing in the coming year to hold onto a hard-fought victory.  “It felt, at times, like pulling teeth to get him to champion that cancellation,” said Natalia Abrams, the founder and president of Student Debt Crisis Center, an advocacy group that’s worked with the White House and Democrats on the issue.   “Now he’s gone full force on it,” Abrams said. “I think he does care about student loan borrowers and about this issue. I don’t see him walking away.” With the window for major legislative victories closing as Republicans prepare to take control of the House, Biden has not fundamentally reformed how American higher education is financed. While his big plan tackles the backend of the costs, his most sweeping proposals for free college and dramatically expanding student aid are effectively dead for now.

Immigration, energy, abortion: Scalise announces first legislation for House GOP -   House Republicans will focus on IRS funding, energy production, immigration, crime and abortion with their first items of legislative business after they take control of the House next week.Steve Scalise (R-La.), the incoming House majority leader, announced on Friday a slate of eight bills and three resolutions that he will bring up in the first two weeks of the 118th Congress.  None of the legislative items appear likely to pass in a Democratic-controlled Senate and signal that Republicans will put a heavy focus on messaging as they control the chamber in a divided Washington for the next two years.The first bill, as House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) revealed in September, will rescind a boost to IRS funding that passed as part of Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act in August. Republicans have repeatedly falsely said the boost will authorize 87,000 new IRS agents, but that estimate includes support staff and non-agent IRS employees and replacements for those who leave over a decade.Two of the GOP bills concern the country’s management of petroleum and energy production. One bill would prohibit “non-emergency drawdowns of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve” without a plan to boost energy production on federal lands. Republicans have heavily criticized President Biden for releasing oil from the strategic reserve.Another bill would restrict the Energy secretary from selling petroleum from the strategic reserve to China.In two other bills, the House GOP turns its focus to immigration and border issues.The Border Safety and Security Act would allow the Homeland Security secretary to turn away certain migrants in order to achieve “operational control” at the border. Republicans have repeatedly accused Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas of not meeting the legal standard of “operational control” at the border by preventing unlawful entries and contraband.Another bill would require the National Instant Criminal Background Check System, which is used during sales of firearms, to notify Immigration and Customs Enforcement and local law enforcement if a person in the U.S. illegally attempts to buy a firearm.Two more of the bills revolve around abortion, an issue that helped define the midterms after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade over the summer. But Republicans are not proposing any kind of national abortion restriction.They will bring up the Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act, which would require care to be given to an infant who survives an abortion procedure. Democrats have argued that a 2002 law already guarantees infants’ legal rights.Another would permanently codify the Hyde amendment, which prohibits federal funding for abortion procedures, and expands the prohibition to bar federal funding for insurance plans that offer elective abortion.Additionally, Scalise said he will bring up a resolution condemning recent attacks on anti-abortion centers and churches. The House will also establish a select committee on China, which will formally be called the Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party. The select committee has been a longtime priority of McCarthy, and he has announced Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) as his pick to chair the panel. Republicans have expressed optimism about the potential for bipartisan cooperation in that committee on China policy.

Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin announces he has ‘serious but curable form of cancer’ -  Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland announced on Wednesday that he has a “serious but curable form of cancer” and will begin outpatient treatment.In a statement, Raskin said, “After several days of tests, I have been diagnosed with diffuse large B cell lymphoma, which is a serious but curable form of cancer. I am about to embark on a course of chemo-immunotherapy on an outpatient basis at Med Star Georgetown University Hospital and Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center. Prognosis for most people in my situation is excellent after four months of treatment.”  Raskin told MSNBC Wednesday night that his diagnosis is “very treatable, and we’re getting it early enough that if I take well to the chemotherapy, which starts this week, and I go through all of my six sessions, then I’ll be in good shape.”The Maryland Democrat serves on the House Select Committee investigating the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol. He also was the lead impeachment manager of former President Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial in 2021 and was just elected by his colleagues to serve as the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee.

Jan. 6 committee withdraws Trump subpoena, points to investigation’s ‘imminent end’ -- The House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol formally withdrew its subpoena to former President Trump on Wednesday, as the panel closes out its investigation. “As you may know, the Select Committee has concluded its hearings, released its final report and will very soon reach its end,” committee Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) said in a letter to Trump’s lawyer. “In light of the imminent end of our investigation, the Select Committee can no longer pursue the specific information covered by the subpoena.” Harmeet Dhillon, one of Trump’s lawyers, celebrated the subpoena’s withdrawal in a tweet on Wednesday, saying the committee had “waved the white flag.” “We were confident of victory in court, given precedent & refusal of prior presidents to testify in Congress,” Dhillon added. “J6 committee wasted millions for a purely political witch-hunt, total abuse of process & power serving no legitimate legislative purpose.” The Jan. 6 committee unanimously voted to subpoena the former president in October, as it neared the end of its investigation. “He is the one person at the center of the story of what happened on Jan. 6. So we want to hear from him,” Thompson said at the time, acknowledging that the move was a “serious and extraordinary action.” However, Trump was widely expected to dodge the panel’s requests to produce documents and sit for a deposition, and he sued to block the subpoena in November. With the panel set to expire in the new Congress, the Jan. 6 committee held its final public meeting last week, recommending that the Department of Justice (DOJ) investigate Trump on four charges: inciting an insurrection, conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to make a false statement and obstruction of an official proceeding.

January 6: judge hints Trump wanted supporters to ‘do more’ than protest -- Donald Trump may have been telling his supporters he wanted them “to do something more” than simply protest against his defeat to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race when he told a mob of them to “fight like hell” on the day of the Capitol attack, according to findings from a federal judge on Wednesday. The opinion from Judge John Bates came in the form of a ruling barring one man charged with having a hand in staging the Capitol assault on January 6 2021 – Alexander Sheppard – from arguing that Trump, as president at the time, had authorized his actions. Bates’s judgment recounted how Trump’s speech near the White House on the day that Congress certified his loss to Biden urged his supporters to march to the Capitol without saying that it was illegal to enter the area where lawmakers would be voting. “These words only encourage those at the rally to march to the Capitol … and do not address legality at all,” wrote Bates, who was appointed to Washington DC’s federal courthouse bench by former president George W Bush. “But, although his express words only mention walking down … to the Capitol, one might conclude that the context implies that he was urging protesters to do something more – perhaps to enter the Capitol building and stop the certification.” Bates made it a point to note that his reasoning was not out of line with the final report recently issued by a congressional committee investigating the Capitol attack, which has been linked to nine deaths, including suicides of law enforcement officers who defended the building that day. That committee’s report found Trump acted “corruptly” on the day of the attack because he knew it was illegal to stop the certification of Biden’s victory over him, and the panel issued a non-binding recommendation for federal prosecutors to file criminal charges against the former president. Bates added that he believed Trump’s use of the phrase “fight like hell” in his speech on 6 January – two weeks before Biden assumed control of the Oval Office – potentially served as “a signal to protesters that entering the Capitol and stopping the certification would be unlawful”. “Even if protesters believed they were following orders, they were not misled about the legality of their actions and thus fall outside the scope of any public authority defense,” Bates wrote. “The conclusions reached here … [are] consistent with the [January 6] committee’s findings.” Sheppard is one of several Capitol attack defendants to try to argue that they were carrying out a president’s bidding that day, though that strategy hasn’t been a winning one in court.  Prosecutors have charged more than 900 other people, many of whom have already been convicted and sentenced to prison.

Kayleigh McEnany a ‘liar and opportunist’, says former Trump aide - Kayleigh McEnany, Donald Trump’s final White House press secretary, is “a liar and an opportunist”, according to testimony to the House January 6 committee by Alyssa Farah Griffin, formerly communications director to Trump. In testimony released on Thursday, Griffin was asked where McEnany “fell” after the 2020 election, “either, ‘Hey, we lost, let’s gracefully exit’ versus ‘let’s facilitate the big lie’” that Trump’s defeat by Joe Biden was caused by electoral fraud. “I am a Christian woman,” Griffin said, “so I will say this. Kayleigh is a liar and an opportunist.” McEnany, who became a Fox News host after leaving the White House, did not immediately respond. Griffin now works for ABC. She also said McEnany was “a smart woman” and “not an idiot”. “She knew we lost the election, but she made a calculation that she wanted to have a certain life post-Trump that required staying in his good graces. And that was more important to her than telling the truth to the American public.”

Trump tax returns show China bank account as six years of records released -- Six years of Donald Trump’s tax returns were made public by a congressional committee on Friday, ending the former president’s long-running effort to break precedent and keep them secret. The documents, dating from 2015 to 2020, offer insights into the complex finances and foreign bank accounts of a man who was accused of abusing the presidency for personal profit and who has already announced another bid for the White House. A House of Representatives report released earlier this month analyzed the documents and showed Trump and his wife Melania paid no federal income tax in 2020, the last full year he was in office. The couple paid $641,931 in federal income taxes in 2015, the year Trump began his campaign for president. They paid $750 in 2016 and 2017, nearly $1m in 2018, $133,445 in 2019 and $0 in 2020, the year Trump unsuccessfully sought re-election. Such numbers reflect heavy business losses and undermine Trump’s self-perpetuated narrative of commercial wealth and success – a crucial part of his brand during his successful 2016 campaign. Trump reported bank accounts in Britain, China and Ireland from 2015 to 2017, and from 2018 only reported a bank account in Britain. During a presidential debate in 2020, Trump said the Chinese account “was closed in 2015, I believe” and insisted: “I closed it before I even ran for president, let alone became president.” Responding to the release on Friday, Daniel Goldman, a congressman-elect from New York who was counsel to House Democrats in Trump’s first impeachment, said: “Generally, you only have bank accounts in a foreign country if you are doing transactions in that country’s currency. What business was Trump doing in China while he was president?” The returns also show Trump claimed foreign tax credits for taxes paid on business ventures around the world, including licensing arrangements for the use of his name on development projects and his golf courses in Scotland and Ireland. During his first three years in office, Trump apparently fulfilled his campaign promise to give his salary to charity. But in 2020, he reported $0 in charitable giving. The returns span nearly 6,000 pages, including more than 2,700 pages of individual returns from Trump and Melania and more than 3,000 pages from Trump’s businesses. Sensitive information such as social security and bank account numbers have been redacted.

Trump taxes show foreign income from more than a dozen countries – Donald Trump’s tax returns show the former president received income from more than a dozen countries during his time in office, highlighting a string of potential conflicts of interest. Trump’s returns, which were made public by House Democrats on Friday after a lengthy legal fight, disclosed income from 2015 to 2020 from a wide range of foreign countries, including Canada, Panama, the Caribbean island of Saint Martin, the Philippines, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom, among others. While the documents did not provide details on the money flows, Trump owns golf courses in Scotland and Ireland, and his name has adorned luxury hotels from Panama to Canada. The former president was known for fusing his business interests with America’s highest public office, drawing allegations of using his role to promote his private resorts, direct federal money to his hotels and encourage foreign governments to spend money that would directly benefit the Trump family interests. His far-flung concerns, foreign and domestic, are nested in more than 400 separate business entities. A 2019 report by the watchdog group OpenSecrets said he had more than $130 million in assets in more than 30 countries. The six years of tax returns disclosed Friday show that Trump received extensive income from Canada, Ireland and the United Kingdom — including gross business income of at least $35.3 million from Canada in 2017, the year he entered office. That year, Trump also brought in $6.5 million from China, $5.8 million from Indonesia and $5.7 million from India. By 2020, his last full year in office, Trump reported $8.8 million in income from the U.K. and another $3.9 million in Ireland.

JPMorgan Sued By Virgin Islands Over Jeffrey Epstein's Alleged Sex-Trafficking Operation - The US Virgin Islands is suing JPMorgan Chase for allegedly reaping financial benefits from Jeffrey Epstein's pedo sex-trafficking operation and failing to report suspicious banking activity. "Over more than a decade, JPMorgan clearly knew it was not complying with federal regulations in regard to Epstein-related accounts as evidenced by its too-little too-late efforts after Epstein was arrested on federal sex trafficking charges and shortly after his death, when JPMorgan belatedly complied with federal law," said US Virgin Islands Attorney General Denise George in a Thursday complaint reported by CNN.The new lawsuit comes less than a month after Epstein's estate settled with George for over $105 million dollars, along with an agreement that the estate will liquidate Epstein's islands and cease business operations in the region. "Human trafficking was the principal business of the accounts Epstein maintained at JPMorgan," reads the filing. The lawsuit claims that JPMorgan Chase failed to make proper regulatory filings that could have tipped off the government to Epstein’s alleged sex-trafficking ring of underage girls through private islands he owned in the U.S. Virgin Islands. In particular, the government argues that JPMorgan Chase should have given Epstein closer scrutiny as a client after he entered a guilty plea to soliciting prostitution with a minor in Florida in 2008. -CNN The bank had no comment as of Wednesday evening.

Twitter Files detail Covid censorship campaign —The latest batch of Twitter files released by CEO Elon Musk show how the platform censored posts about Covid-19 that didn’t align with the White House’s message. Qualified doctors and epidemiologists were suppressed and banned at the direct request of the Biden administration, the documents suggest. Both the Trump and Biden administrations pushed Twitter to moderate coronavirus-related content, journalist David Zweig reported on Monday, citing the company’s internal communications. While Trump’s team wanted to suppress rumors of shortages at grocery-stores to combat panic-buying, Biden switched focus to “misinformation” about vaccines once his team took over in January 2021. According to files seen by Zweig, Biden’s staff directly pressured Twitter to ban “high-profile anti-vaxxer accounts,” including that of former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson, who has persistently claimed that the risks of vaccination outweigh the benefits. Twitter complied and suspended Berenson in July 2021, but employees said afterwards that “the Biden team” was still “not satisfied” with the platform’s censorship efforts, and angrily demanded that it “de-platform several accounts.” Twitter placed a warning label on the account of a Harvard epidemiologist who argued that “those with prior natural infection” do not need to be vaccinated, and flagged as “misleading” tweets that cited the Biden administration’s own data on Covid death rates. It used a combination of AI “bots” and contracted moderators in foreign countries to make these decisions. A physician was flagged for sharing the results of a peer-reviewed study linking vaccination with cardiac arrests in young people, while another doctor was permanently suspended for referring to a published study suggesting that vaccination temporarily impairs male patients’ sperm count. “Dissident yet legitimate content was labeled as misinformation, and the accounts of doctors and others were suspended both for tweeting opinions and demonstrably true information,” Zweig tweeted. Since purchasing Twitter for $44 billion in October, Elon Musk has released batches of documents shedding light on the platform’s previously opaque censorship policies. Published by several independent journalists, these document dumps have shown how Twitter suppressed information damaging to Joe Biden’s election campaign, colluded with the FBI to remove content the agency wanted hidden, assisted the US military’s online influence campaigns, and censored “anti-Ukraine narratives” on behalf of multiple US intelligence agencies.

‘Twitter Files’ show FBI offered executives top secret info to guide 2020 election censorship The FBI set up a classified briefing for Twitter lawyer James Baker weeks before news reports emerged about incriminating information found on Hunter Biden’s abandoned laptop, according to internal Twitter documents. Mr. Baker, a former FBI lawyer chosen for the top-secret briefings, would later push Twitter to block the reports that threatened then-candidate Joseph R. Biden’s presidential run in October 2020. Internal emails, released Monday by independent journalist Michael Shellenberger in the latest installment of Elon Musk’s “Twitter Files,” revealed the depth of ties between federal officials and social media platform. It included the scheme to grant Twitter executives access to classified information as the FBI sought to discredit the laptop computer that had been in the bureau’s possession for 10 months before The New York Post broke the story in October 2020. Nevertheless, the FBI and Mr. Baker allowed speculation to flourish that Hunter Biden‘s laptop was part of a Russian disinformation operation. In July 2020, Elvis Chan, the FBI assistant special agent in charge of the bureau’s San Francisco Cyber Branch, wrote Twitter with a proposal to grant a group of employees temporary clearances to begin sharing information on the threats to the upcoming election.

Twitter Files bombshell as emails show even chief censor feared the FBI was breaking the law helping US intelligence engage in domestic operations: Yoel Roth was 'uncomfortable' being grilled over 'state propaganda' on the app - The most recent edition of the 'Twitter Files' revealed that FBI officials demanded execs for the social media giant to give them information about how they were enforcing safety online. Journalist Matt Taibbi, who released the first batch of internal files about the Hunter Biden saga earlier in December, posted emails showing the FBI's Foreign Influence Task Force wanted info about state-run media's use of the site. Taibbi dubbed this release 'Twitter Files Supplemental' and seemed to wonder why the agency was unsatisfied with the idea that it 'had not observed much recent activity from official propaganda actors.' Even Yoel Roth, the former 'Twitter censor' who was forced to flee after Elon Musk shared part of his thesis which suggested letting children access gay hook-up app Grindr, was uncomfortable with the FBI agent Elvis Chan's requests. The released emails show that Roth feared the FBI was breaking the law to help US intelligence engage in domestic operations. He responded to Chan saying: 'I'm frankly perplexed by the requests here, which seem more like something we'd get from a congressional committee than the Bureau.' Taibbi reported the comments, which come after he released the latest batch of 'Twitter Files' on the social media site, questioning the legality of an intelligence agency trying to get Twitter's help in domestic operations. The FBI responded to Taibbi with a statement, saying: 'The FBI regularly engages with private sector entities to provide information specific to identified foreign malign influence actors’ subversive, undeclared, covert, or criminal activities,” the agency told Taibbi.'

Twitter and the CIA (Twitter Files 8–10) - The fact of a holiday weekend has not dampened the enthusiasm of the Twitter Files team, which now includes:

• Matt Taibbi (TF 1, 1a, 3, 6, 6a, 9)
• Bari Weiss (TF 2, 5)
• Michael Shellenberger (TF 4, 7)
• Lee Fang (TF 8)
• David Zweig (TF 10)

The releases have been coming fast as the team furiously reads the thousands of documents made available.My personal worry: Changes at Twitter and a potential ouster or resignation of Elon Musk, desirable perhaps for many other reasons, will close the door to these disclosures, and close it fast. If the team isn’t racing against the clock to leverage the access they have, they ought to be.Because those revelations are getting more and more interesting. Taibbi especially has been pulling the thread that connects Twitter — and many other social media companies — with not just domestic surveillance agencies, but the CIA.

• Twitter Files 8, by Lee Fang, one of my favorite investigative journalists, looks at the way that Twitter and its executives decries state-backed information operations, which it says are “associated with misleading [and] deceptive behavior”… …while they simultaneous enable U.S. state-sponsored operations of the same type. This happened so frequently that it almost looks like one of Taibbi’s “master-canine” relationships.
• Twitter Files 9, by Matt Taibbi, is an important one. Here, the hand of the CIA is revealed. It seems that the FBI was only fronting for a whole assembly of other government security agencies, and even some local police departments, in requesting that tweets be deleted, accounts deprecated and the like.
• Twitter Files 10, by another new Twitter Files researcher, David Zweig, looks at the relationship between Twitter and the Trump and Biden administrations regarding the Covid pandemic. Whatever you think of the everyone-must-be-vaccinated policy of the U.S. government — I suspect most readers agree with that policy — it’s instructive nonetheless to see the extent to which Twitter and other social media operations were aggressively roped into the messaging, censorship of doubt, and discussion of alternatives. Yes, there was a clamping down of the yahoo-ism and thoughtless rebellion against this (or perhaps any) anti-Covid regime. But it’s still not clear that vaccine-only was the best way to go. Would vaccine-plus-contact tracing, for example, have saved more lives? We’ll never know, and the discussion was never had, at least in public. Ask yourself, if it weren’t this administration and this message, would you approve these methods? If the government changed hands to your opponents, would you want to grant them the same intrusive power? The fact is, by approving this level of intrusion into the public discourse now, we have already granted our opponents that same power. If you build a gun, anyone can use it, especially if its use is widely cheered.

Business partners turn on Sam Bankman-Fried  — The stunning collapse of one of crypto’s most prominent firms has quickly morphed into a legal battle pitting former executives and ex-romantic partners against one another. Last week, as FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was being extradited to the United States from the Bahamas, two of his former business partners pleaded guilty to multiple charges of fraud and conspiracy. Caroline Ellison, former Alameda chief, and Gary Wang, FTX cofounder, each pleaded guilty to multiple charges and are cooperating with feds Caroline Ellison, the 28-year-old former CEO of the crypto hedge fund Alameda, apologized before a federal judge in New York, saying that she and her former associates knowingly stole billions of dollars from customers of Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange and sought to cover it up, according to court transcripts.“I am truly sorry for what I did,” Ellison told the court. “I knew that it was wrong.”  Ellison told the court that Alameda had a virtually unlimited borrowing facility in FTX, and that she knew the exchange would need to use customer funds to finance loans to the hedge fund. She also agreed to keep the two firms’ unusually close relationship hidden from investors and customers. From July through October, she told the court, Ellison agreed with Bankman-Fried and others to provide “materially misleading financial statements to Alameda’s lenders,” and prepared balance sheets that concealed the extent of Alameda’s borrowing, according to transcripts from plea hearings held on December 19 and recently unsealed.  Ellison has been charged with seven criminal counts, including conspiracy to commit wire fraud and money laundering. She and Bankman-Fried were close business associates who briefly dated.   Ellison said she knew that FTX executives created an arrangement that permitted Alameda access to an unlimited line of credit without being required to post collateral or pay interest on negative balances, according to the transcript.

Sam Bankman-Fried will enter a plea next week in FTX case, court filings show-  FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is expected to enter a plea at a court hearing next week, court filings show.The arraignment hearing, scheduled for January 3, will be Bankman-Fried's opportunity to either plead guilty in the face of eight fraud and conspiracy counts against him, or to tell the court he will fight the charges at trial.After Bankman-Fried was extradited from the Bahamas to the US last week, prosecutors announced that his two top lieutenants, Caroline Ellison and Gary Wang, pleaded guilty to fraud charges stemming from the FTX scandal and were cooperating with their investigation. Prosecutors allege that Bankman-Fried orchestrated a years-long fraud by hiding the flow of money between FTX, his currency exchange, and Alameda Research, a cryptocurrency hedge fund he controlled.At a hearing in a federal courtroom in Manhattan last Thursday, US Magistrate Judge Gabriel W. Gorenstein released Bankman-Fried on a $250 million bail and required him to stay confined to his parents' home in Palo Alto, California, with the exception of court appointments and exercise.The January 3 hearing was previously on the court's calendar. A docket entry on Wednesday designated it as an arraignment hearing, meaning that Bankman-Fried is now scheduled to enter his plea. He will be expected to appear in New York in person.Another docket entry on Wednesday indicated that two additional prosecutors were joining the case: Samuel Raymond and Andrew Rohrbach. Rohrbach was also one of the prosecutors who handled the case against Jeffrey Epstein's associate Ghislaine Maxwell, who was ultimately found guilty of sex-trafficking girls and sexually abusing them herself.On Tuesday, the criminal cases of Bankman-Fried, Ellison, and Wang were assigned to US District Judge Lewis Kaplan. Judge Ronnie Abrams, who was previously assigned to the case, recused herself because her husband "advised FTX in 2021, as well as represented parties that may be adverse to FTX and Defendant Bankman-Fried in other proceedings."

Sam Bankman-Fried borrowed $546 million from his hedge fund to buy a Robinhood stake - — When Sam Bankman-Fried bought a nearly 7.6% stake in Robinhood, the popular stock-trading app, earlier this year, he financed the deal with more than half a billion dollars borrowed from his own hedge fund — the entity that prosecutors say was illegally funneling customer funds from its affiliated platform, FTX. In an affidavit that emerged Tuesday, Bankman-Fried said he and FTX co-founder Gary Wang borrowed more than $546 million from the hedge fund, Alameda Research, which they used to purchase the Robinhood shares via a holding company primarily controlled by Bankman-Fried. Wang has since pleaded guilty to four counts of fraud and conspiracy, in cooperation with US prosecutors investigating FTX’s collapse. Bankman-Fried has been indicted on eight criminal counts. Since stepping down from FTX, he has repeatedly denied knowingly committing fraud; his arraignment date hasn’t been set. He was arrested earlier this month in the Bahamas, where FTX was based, and extradited to the US last week. He is under house arrest at his parents’ home in California, and scheduled to enter a plea in a federal court in Manhattan on January 3. He could face life in prison if found guilty. Bankman-Fried’s stake in Robinhood is now at the center of a separate, multinational legal battle over the assets associated with FTX’s bankrupt crypto empire. Four separate entities have laid claim to the approximately 56 million shares, worth about $450 million. FTX’s new management, which is trying to claw back funds for investors and customers of the bankrupt platform, want to wrest control of the shares from the Antigua-based holding company 90% owned by Bankman-Fried. Bankman-Fried himself claims ownership of the shares, seeking a source of payment for legal expenses, according to FTX, according to FTX. Also claiming the Robinhood shares are bankrupt crypto lender BlockFi, and an individual FTX creditor. Because the competing claims, FTX filed a motion earlier this month to the Delaware bankruptcy court to keep the assets frozen until the court “can resolve the issues in a manner that is fair to all creditors of the Debtors.”

SBF Was Meeting With Senior White House Officials Shortly Before FTX Collapse - FTX founder and accused crypto-crook Sam Bankman-Fried met with senior White House officials on at least four occasions in the months leading up to his firm's massive implosion, Bloomberg reports. On Sept. 8, SBF met with senior Biden adviser Steve Ricchetti in a previously unreported encounter, White House officials familiar with the matter said. The meeting was "the latest in a handful of sessions," according to the report. Bankman-Fried had at least three others previously disclosed in White House visitor logs. They include one April 22 and another May 12, each with Ricchetti, and one a day later, on May 13, with Bruce Reed, another senior Biden aide, officials confirmed. The final meeting is recorded in logs as two meetings held back-to-back, but was one meeting, officials said. Some of the prior White House meetings included others from FTX. –Bloomberg What's more, Bankman-Fried's brother, Gabriel, held a March meeting of his own and was also at the May 13 meeting - bringing the total number up to five meetings that involved one or bother brothers.  According to one source, "politics" were not discussed despite SBF being a Democrat megadonor credited as a major factor in President Biden's 2020 win. Instead, the brothers allegedly talked about general matters related to the 'crypto industry and exchanges,' as well as "pandemic prevention related to the foundation, Guarding Against Pandemics, run by Gabe Bankman-Fried," according to an official. SBF now faces several criminal charges related to the collapse of FTX. His ties to Washington have come under the microscope since the collapse of his exchange - as Bankman-Fried gave millions of dollars to Democratic politicians - becoming the party's second-largest individual donor in the 2022 session.

FTX Customers Want Identities Redacted From Bankruptcy Filings – WSJ - A group of FTX’s international customers asked for a court order shielding their names from the public, spotlighting a privacy issue that has divided bankruptcy courts in other crypto-related cases. Unnamed customers of FTX.com, the failed company’s largest exchange platform outside the U.S., said in court papers Wednesday their interest in keeping their identities and contact information secret trumps the public’s interest in an open and transparent bankruptcy process. Public disclosure of customer identities puts them at risk of identity theft and cyber scams, and could diminish whatever value remains in FTX, according to the customer group.

Sam Bankman-Fried's 'Nervous' Parents Hire Armed Guards Amid Death Threats -Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of FTX, was granted bail last week on the conditions of a $250 million bond that he would be on house arrest at his parent's house in Palo Alto, California. His parents secured his bail with the equity in their house. Word has quickly spread of SBF's location, prompting the family to fortify the home.  NYPost reported the family had contracted a private security firm in the Bay Area to patrol the grounds for $10,000 per week to protect SBF from mounting death threats.  One source told the Post, "They're [family] nervous ... there have been numerous death threats. They're not taking any chances." Days ago, NYPost reported Bankman-Fried's parents hired workers to construct a network of security cameras around the home on the edge of Stanford University's campus. "Stanford officials have also taken steps to secure the area around the Bankman-Fried homestead, barricading both ends of their short block and stationing privately contracted security guards at the gates," NYPost added.

BankThink: We can't afford to wait for government to lead crypto regulation | American Banker   - The fall of FTX was just the latest calamity to hit the crypto world — and it's caused a cascade of closures, bankruptcies, and losses for individual and institutional traders, governments, and companies that used crypto for financing and trading. Crypto has been down before and bounced back — but this time, the losses may be too great for trading to go back to "normal."  The overwhelming reaction among governments and traditional financial gatekeepers has been to call for regulations on what has been a freewheeling, open trading market.  Among those calling for regulations is U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who "remains quite skeptical" about cryptocurrency in general. "I think everything we've lived through over the last couple of weeks, but earlier as well, says this is an industry that really needs to have adequate regulation," she said. Right now, the industry doesn't have the regulations needed to protect advisors — but plans are being formed to do just that, Yellen told reporters.

How the Russia-Ukraine war upended global finance in 2022 -   Early in 2022, as the world's economy began to rebound from the pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine threw global finance into disarray. A U.S.-led coalition responded with sweeping new sanctions targeting Russia's energy sector, its oligarchs and its financial system. Sanctions on Russia sent ripples across the global economy, and permanently altered the world financial landscape.Heading into the second year of fighting with no clear end in sight, the invasion will continue to shape the world economy for the foreseeable future. The war has strained supply chains and caused food and energy price swings, disrupted regional payments and trade, and darkened the global economic outlook.Here's a look back at how the war upended global finance in 2022.

Nineteen months after PPP's fade, a Maine bank reaps a windfall | American BankerNortheast Bank in Portland, Maine, benefitted more than most lenders from the Paycheck Protection Program. And over the past three months, the $1.74 billion-asset bank has put much of the capital it generated in 2020 and 2021 to good use. Northeast purchases and originates national commercial real estate loans, most of them larger than $3 million. Earlier this month, Northeast announced that it had purchased loans — primarily commercial real estate credits — totaling $1.16 billion since Sept. 30. The fourth quarter represents Northeast's most productive three-month stretch "by a wide margin," Rick Wayne, the bank's president and CEO, said. Northeast's loan portfolio totaled $1.45 billion at the end of the third quarter, generating net interest income totaling $23.6 million for those three months.

BankThink: Overcoming the Catch-22 for credit invisibles | American Banker - To shake the dust off the stale U.S. credit scoring system and overcome the structural problem of credit invisibility, we should be open to global experience.What Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia and the U.K. are doing regarding fintech regulation is noteworthy. Despite significant efforts in recent years, the current U.S. credit scoring system is still far from perfect. Among American adults, 19% do not have a conventional credit score, including 28 million who are "credit invisible" and 21 million who are unscoreable. An additional 57 million have credit scores that are subprime or below. All these people find themselves in a Catch-22 situation: They must first access credit to build a history of consistent credit repayment to demonstrate their worthiness to receive credit. The other side is that opportunities for banks and other lenders to expand new customer segments and develop retail products remain significantly limited.

Ginnie Mae seizes bankrupt Reverse Mortgage Funding's servicing -  - Ginnie Mae, an arm of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, has taken possession of servicing for the bankrupt Reverse Mortgage Funding's loans, the government bond insurer has confirmed.First reported by Institutional Risk Analyst, citing court documents, the Ginnie's seizure is the outcome of previously reported negotiations with several parties, including the bond insurer, over the assets. "The transfer of servicing for RMF loans should have minimal direct impact on affected borrowers," Ginnie Mae President Alanna McCargo said in a statement.

Non-QM Lenders Must Update Underwriting Practices to Meet CFPB Regulations  - Banks and mortgage companies need to change their lending practices to conform to revised CFPB regulations relating to loans underwritten using a borrower's bank statements as a source of income.  On October 1, 2022, the CFPB updated its consumer protection regulations relating to bank statement loans.  Under the revised regulation, banks and mortgage companies are now required to confirm that deposits referenced on bank statements reflect income and are not gifts, proceeds from a loan, or other non-income related items. On average, over 100,000 families receive these bank statement mortgage loans representing over $25 billion in lending each year. These loans, known as "Non-QM" mortgages, are often packaged into Wall Street securitizations that require both the originating bank or mortgage lender and a third-party diligence firm to validate that each loan in that portfolio complies with applicable laws and regulations.  Surprisingly, there is no indication that major Non-QM lenders have updated their loan programs or underwriting policies to meet these new consumer protection requirements. For instance, many banks and mortgage companies continue to count all deposits into a borrower's bank account as income without any evidence that any specific deposit was in fact income that would continue in the future. "When consumers sit down at the closing table, they shouldn't be set up to fail with mortgages they cannot afford," said former CFPB Director Richard Cordray. The practice of not verifying that bank deposits are actually income, and not for example the proceeds of a loan, is the type of predatory and irresponsible lending practice the CFPB's regulation was enacted to prevent. In addition, non-verified bank statement deposits increase the risks relating to money laundering and other financial fraud.  Upon informally surveying a significant number of lenders, banks, and diligence firms regarding Non-QM lending programs following the implementation of the revised rule, we were unable find a single Non-QM lender who updated its underwriting policies to reflect the revised regulations. In fact, several Non-QM lenders still rely on less than a year of bank statements and appear to continue their practice of simply counting all deposits as income without evidencing the source. The first securitizations of Non-QM loans that were originated by these lenders following the implementation of these revised regulations, (which are not expected to occur until later this year) will test the lender's decision to double-down on irresponsible lending practices in the face of clear CFPB guidance to the contrary..  The stakes could not be higher for lenders who continue to defy the revised regulations. Penalties for non-compliance with these consumer protections entitle borrowers who are subjected to these predatory practices to a refund of all closing costs paid in obtaining the loan, plus up to three years of interest payments, and attorney fees. This could result in more than $10 billion in liability to consumers annually.  In an environment where most analysts expect delinquencies to rise and home prices to fall, the additional risk of this type of liability is even higher.

FHA extends partial waiver for face-to-face meetings into 2023  --   The Federal Housing Administration has further extended the partial waiver for face-to-face interactions with mortgage borrowers in default that it's had in place since the pandemic. The administration, an arm of the Department of Housing and Urban Development that primarily insures loans to entry-level homebuyers with affordability constraints, cited concerns about the seasonal "tripledemic" of COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus in its decision. The coronavirus pandemic's continuing status as a national and public health emergency also were cited. The agency also showed concern about the mortgage industry's ability to handle the requirement given current market conditions.

Forbearance report shows 'pockets of weakness' --Forbearance was flat in the latest month tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association, but hints of near-term weakness in certain parts of the market are growing more consistent.The share of loans with forborne payments in November matched October's 0.7% and loan performance in general was historically strong. However, a pattern of very slight upticks in the first-time buyer segment served by government loan programs is taking shape. "There were pockets of weakness in the November data, despite the forbearance rate remaining unchanged," said Marina Walsh, vice president of industry analysis at the Mortgage Bankers Association, in a press release.

Early-stage defaults push national delinquency rate above 3% - Early-stage delinquencies picked up in November month to month, but the volume of more seriously distressed loans only moved marginally, according to data from Black Knight. Approximately 1.6 million homeowners were more than 30 days past due on their mortgages, leading to a national delinquency rate of just over 3%, the mortgage technology and data provider said. The number represented a 3.5% increase from October's total. Thirty-day delinquencies moved up by 3.9%, while loans 60 or more days late saw an 11% surge. Meanwhile the number of seriously delinquent borrowers, 90 days late or more but not yet in foreclosure, dropped by just 0.2% to 550,000. While the flattening could indicate many homeowners are resuming payments before their loans hit the seriously delinquent point, the lack of noticeable improvement might also mean those already struggling are finding little relief.

 Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in November -- Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.64% in November from 0.67% in October. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.33% in November 2021.  This is slightly below the pre-pandemic lows.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 2.15% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.34% in October).  For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.49% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.71%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.52% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.53%). So, Fannie is still working through a handful of poor performing loans from the bubble years.Mortgages in forbearance were counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they were not reported to the credit bureaus. Freddie Mac reported earlier.

  Newer delinquencies become more of a focus at the GSEs - Loans with payments late by a year or more were the biggest sub-category within the government-sponsored enterprises' distressed portfolios a year ago, but now mortgages that've been late for 30-59 days are. Mortgages late by 30-59 days constituted nearly half or more than 47% of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's delinquent loans at the end of the third quarter, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's latest report. A year earlier, loans late by a year or more made up the largest subset of that group at 36.5% and the share for mortgages late by a month was 30.5%. At the end of this year's third quarter, loans delinquent by 365-plus days was the second largest category, but with only a 16.9% share.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Continued to Decline" to 9.2% year-over-year increase in October --  S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September, and October closing prices).  This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Continued to Decline in October  The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 9.2% annual gain in October, down from 10.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 8.0%, down from 9.6% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 8.6% year-over-year gain, down from 10.4% in the previous month. Miami, Tampa, and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in October. Miami led the way with a 21% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a 20.5% increase, and Charlotte in third with a 15% increase. All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending October 2022 versus the year ending September 2022. ... Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -0.5% month-over-month decrease in October, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.7% and -0.8%, respectively.  After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.3%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -0.5%. Prices declined in every city in October, with a median change of -0.9%. Year-over-year price gains in all 20 cities were lower in October than they had been in September; the median year-over-year increase across the 20 cities was 8.3%.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, December Update: Now Dallas, Las Vegas, Phoenix Plunge Fastest. San Francisco, Seattle, San Diego Down Most from Peak -   By Wolf Richter -- Declines in house prices have turned into a relentless drumbeat. Today, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for “October” was released. Time frame: A three-month moving average of closed home sales that were entered into public records in August, September, and October; these are deals that were largely made in July through September.  Since then, home prices have dropped further nationwide, as we know from different median-price indices; for example, in the city of San Francisco, the median house price has now plunged by 27% from the peak in April.  The Case-Shiller Index here – it covers 20 metropolitan areas – is a more reliable indicator than the sometimes-crazy median-price indices that can be heavily skewed by a change in the mix of homes that are sold. But the Case-Shiller index lags months behind.On a month-to-month basis, house prices dropped again in all 20 metros that are in the Case-Shiller Index. On a year-over-year basis, the price gains were further slashed, with the condo index for San Francisco now negative; and the house price index just about flat.The biggest month-to-month drops in today’s “October” index occurred in:

• Dallas: -2.1%
• Las Vegas: -1.8%
• San Francisco: -1.7%
• Phoenix: -1.6%
• Denver: -1.1%
• Seattle: -1.0%
• Boston: -1.0%
• Miami: -1.0%

From their various peaks, which range from May to July, house prices dropped the most in:

• San Francisco Bay Area: -13.0%
• Seattle metro: -12.2%
• San Diego metro: -8.5%
• Denver metro: -6.7%
• Los Angeles metro: -6.6%
• Phoenix metro: -5.9%
• Dallas metro: -5.6%
• Las Vegas metro: -5.2%.

In the San Francisco Bay Area, house prices dropped by 1.7% in “October” (three month moving average of sales that were entered into public records in August, September, and October), and are now down by 13.0% from the peak in May.Plunging faster than it had spiked: Over those five months since the peak, the index plunged by 51.4 points. Over the five months to the peak, it had spiked by 48.6 points.The five monthly drops from the peak have nearly wiped out the year-over-year gain (+0.6%). The Case-Shiller Index for San Francisco Bay Area condos is already down by 1.3% year-over-year. The index for “San Francisco” covers five counties of the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area: San Francisco, part of Silicon Valley, part of the East Bay, and part of the North Bay. In the Seattle metro, house prices dropped 1.0% in October from September, and are now down 12.2% from the peak in May.Over those five months since the peak, the index plunged by 50.4 points. Over the five months to the peak, it had spiked by 55.9 points.These five months of price drops slashed the year-over-year gain to 4.5%.

NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 4.0% in November, Year-over-year Down 37.8% -  From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Slid 4.0% in November   Pending home sales slid for the sixth consecutive month in November, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four U.S. regions recorded month-over-month decreases, and all four regions saw year-over-year declines in transactions."Pending home sales recorded the second-lowest monthly reading in 20 years as interest rates, which climbed at one of the fastest paces on record this year, drastically cut into the number of contract signings to buy a home," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Falling home sales and construction have hurt broader economic activity."The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* — a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings — fell 4.0% to 73.9 in November. Year-over-year, pending transactions dropped by 37.8%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001....The Northeast PHSI slipped 7.9% from last month to 63.3, a drop of 34.9% from November 2021. The Midwest index decreased 6.6% to 77.8 in November, a fall of 31.6% from one year ago.The South PHSI retracted 2.3% to 88.5 in November, fading 38.5% from the prior year. The West index dropped by 0.9% in November to 55.1, retreating 45.7% from November 2021.This was much larger than the expected decline for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in December and January.

US Pending Home Sales Crash By Most On Record 1 Existing home sales crashed but new home sales rebounded in November, which leaves today's pending home sales as the deciding vote for just how apparently dismal the US housing market really is.. and the decision is - the housing market is in trouble as pending home sales tumbled 4.0% MoM (vs -1.0% exp) and October's drop was revised even deeper...  That is the 6th straight month of pending home sales declines (and 12th of the last 13 months).  On a year-over-year basis, pending home sales collapsed 38.60%, the largest annual drop ever. “There are approximately two months of lag time between mortgage rates and home sales,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.“With mortgage rates falling throughout December, home-buying activity should inevitably rebound in the coming months and help economic growth.” Pending sales fell in all four regions in the month, led by the Northeast and Midwest. Outside of the COVID-Lockdown collapse, this is the lowest pending home sales index level ever... Most problematically, pending home sales are often looked to as a leading indicator of existing-home purchases given properties typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.   

More adult children are living with their parents. Parents are not pleased-- The share of adult children who live with their parents has ticked up in recent years. This just in: The parents don’t like it.  A recent Pew survey found two-fifths of dads believe parents hosting adult children is bad for society, while only 12 percent think it’s a good thing. Moms agree, albeit to a lesser degree.   With the economy sputtering, a spate of new articles counsel parents on such lightning-rod topics as whether adult children should pay rent and, more bluntly, “How to Get Your Grown Children to Move Out.”   COVID-19 sent adult children back to the nest in unprecedented numbers. A stampede of younger millennials and older Generation Z progeny have fled roommates and cramped urban apartments during the pandemic for spacious homes in thinly settled suburbs with full kitchens and convenient laundry facilities. The share of adults ages 25 to 34 who lived with their parents reached historic highs in 2020, Census figures show: 22 percent of men and 13.4 percent of women. The numbers have retreated since then, but not far. In 2022, 19 percent of men and 12 percent of women in the 25-34 demographic cohabit with their parents. “We talk in psychology about emerging adulthood as a new stage in life,” said Carol Sigelman, a developmental psychologist at the George Washington University. “It’s this sort of in-between land.” A grown child with a good job can maximize the benefits of living at home, amassing savings and retiring debts while paying little or nothing for food and shelter. Returning to a childhood home can also trigger a waking nightmare of rehashed arguments, violated boundaries and unattainable privacy, not to mention the inescapable sense of being treated like a child. “Multigenerational households really are very productive and useful,” said Jerrold Shapiro, a professor of counseling psychology at Santa Clara University. “But there are some issues. The biggest one is, as soon as kids get back with their parents, no matter how old they are, they regress. And the parents regress. They do it in tandem.” Returning from college to the twin bed and One Direction posters of a childhood bedroom is a well-established, if vaguely humiliating, rite of passage for America’s young adults. More than half of men and women ages 18-24 have lived with their parents consistently since 2011, Census numbers show.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 9.7% Compared to Same Week in 2019 -  From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Performance Slows During Lead-Up to Christmas U.S. hotel performance came in lower than the previous week and showed weakened comparisons to 2019 on the unfavorable side of a holiday calendar shift, according to STR‘s latest data through Dec. 24. At the same time, occupancy on the 24th was the highest for any Christmas Eve on record. ec. 18-24, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 43.9% (-9.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $132.29 (+2.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $58.04 (-7.6%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. he red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021.  Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue) and close to 2019 levels. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will start increasing early in 2023.

Las Vegas November 2022: Visitor Traffic Down 7.0% Compared to 2019; Convention Traffic Down 3.4% -  Note: I like using Las Vegas as a measure of recovery for both leisure (visitors) and business (conventions). From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: November 2022 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics: Even with typical late fall/early winter seasonal volume decreases kicking in after a stellar October, November 2022 saw visitation of approx. 3.27M, about 5% ahead of last November and ‐7% shy of November 2019 tallies, supported by a variety of events including the Automotive After Market Week and the Raiders vs. Colts home game. Overall hotel occupancy reached 81.2% (+3.6 pts YoY and down ‐7.0 pts vs. Nov 2019). Weekend occupancy came in at 89.6% (‐1.1 pts of last November and ‐4.5 pts below November 2019), while Midweek occupancy reached 77.5%, up 5.6 pts vs. last November but down ‐7.3 pts vs. November 2019's tally. The trend of strong room rates continued during the month as ADR approached $187, up roughly 20% YoY and +38% ahead of November 2019 while RevPAR surpassed $151 for the month, +25% YoY and +27% over November 2019. The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (dark blue), 2020 (light blue), 2021 (yellow) and 2022 (red) Visitor traffic was down 7.0% compared to the same month in 2019. Visitor traffic was up 4.9% compared to last November. The second graph shows convention traffic. Convention traffic was down 3.4% compared to November 2019. Note: There was almost no convention traffic from April 2020 through May 2021.

Pennsylvania gas tax hike to take effect in 2023 | fox43.com - — With the New Year comes a new gas tax hike in Pennsylvania, which already has the third-highest state gas tax in the country.The tax on gasoline will increase by 3.5 cents to 61.1 cents per gallon. The tax on diesel will increase 4.4 cents to 78.5 cents per gallon. It goes into effect automatically on Jan. 1, 2023 because of Act 89, a law signed by Gov. Tom Corbett in 2013. The law was meant to help pay for the state’s roads and bridges.

  Goods Trade Balance Improves in November - Advance indicators for the goods trade balance came in today, at -$83.35 bn above consensus of -$96.90 bn. Figure 1: Trade balance in goods in bn$ SAAR (blue, left scale), and as share of monthly GDP (tan, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. BEA/Census, and Advance Economic Indicators, and IHS Markit, NBER, and author’s calculations.Exports fell by 3.1%, imports by 7.6% in value (dollar) terms (seasonally adjusted, m/m). Drops in both were broad based, with consumer goods leading the drop in both, and and automotive and related goods also leading in drop in imports.Note that for both imports and exports, the goods movements dominate goods and services.  Figure 2: Exports of goods in bn$ SAAR (blue), and of goods and services (tan). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. BEA/Census, and Advance Economic Indicators, and NBER.Figure 3: Imports of goods in bn$ SAAR (blue), and of goods and services (tan). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. BEA/Census, and Advance Economic Indicators, and NBER. Goldman Sachs increased their tracking estimate for Q4 GDP to 2 ppts q/q SAAR, by 0.3 ppts, on the basis of the sharp drop in imports.Note that while a smaller than expected imports raises the nowcast of GDP conditional on other indicators (i.e., in an accounting or “bean counting” sense), falling imports behaviorally implies slower economic growth (holding constant expenditure switching effects — but the dollar has been pretty consistently strong for months).

Truck Congestion at Worst Bottlenecks (MPH), Barge Rates on the Mississippi (WHOOSH), China-US Container Freight Rates -  by Wolf Richter - We’re going to look at three tidbits that I found particularly interesting in the newly released Department of Transportation’s 234-page Transportation Statistics Annual Report 2022: A measure of truck congestion at the 10 worst bottleneck locations in the US; barge rates on the Mississippi River System, which exploded this fall; and container freight rates in both directions between the US and China, with US-bound rates still 200% above the rates before the pandemic. One of the new thingies in 2022 that came out of the supply-chain chaos is a slew of supply-chain measurements, including by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (which is part of the DOT), which came up with monthly data of the average trucks speed at the 10 worst bottleneck locations. The data goes back to January 2019. The latest entry is for October 2022. Here is its map of truck bottlenecks: In April 2020, passenger vehicle traffic plunged amid the lockdowns, and with fewer passenger vehicles on the road, trucks practically flew through the bottleneck locations at an average speed of 50 mph, up from 21 mph in April 2019! In every month of 2022 through October (dark blue line in the chart below), the average truck speed at these 10 bottlenecks was faster than in 2019. The cost of truck congestion was $20 billion in 2019; in 2020, it plunged to $11 billion, the BTS estimates. You can see why (click to enlarge): Grain Barge Shipping Rates: The US has 25,000 miles of navigable waterways and about 34,00 barges/non-self-propelled vessels. Domestic waterborne commerce dropped steadily from over 1 billion tons in 2000 to 818 million tons in 2019, and to 743 million tons in 2020 (last year in the report). In the summer of 2022, the weekly barge rates for downbound freight originating from seven locations along the Mississippi River System, which includes its tributaries, spiked to record highs in September and early October, nearly reaching $120 per ton at one point. They dropped in November but remain high (click on chart to enlarge): Container Freight Rates: down from peak, but still up 211% from pre-pandemic rates. Pandemic stimulus caused a historic boom in sales of goods in the US, and many of these goods, either finished goods or components, are imported from Asia, and particularly from China. This explosion in demand caused all kinds of issues, including congestion of ports and rail yards, which tangled up containers. This sudden burst in demand, chaos at ports and railyards, and “the control of a few companies over prices” caused freight container shipping rates from Central China to the US West Coast to spike by 578% between February 2020 and the peak in August 2021, according to the report. Ocean freight rates then began to fall, but as of October 2022 remain 211% above the pre-pandemic rate. The chart shows the average rates in both directions: The rate from Shanghai to Los Angeles (left scale, gray line), peaking at nearly $12,000 per 40-ft. container in the summer of 2021; and the rate from Los Angeles to Shanghai (right scale, green line), peaking at nearly $1,800 per 40-foot container.

Southwest Airlines cancels at least 64% flights Monday after massive disruption leaves customers stranded, call centers swamped  -- Last week's winter weather travel mess is lingering like a vicious hangover into this week - and the headaches have been migraine-proportioned for Southwest Airlines, its CEO Bob Jordan, airline employees and most of all its frustrated passengers on Monday. More than 3,900 flights within, into or out of the United States had already been canceled by 10:10 p.m. ET Monday, according to flight tracking website FlightAware, while more than 8,000 flights had been delayed. But Southwest accounts for a whopping share of those. None of the other U.S. carriers have canceled nearly as many flights or as much of their schedule as Southwest. The Dallas-based airline had canceled 10% of its flights -- just shy of 2,900 total -- as of 10:10 p.m. ET Monday, according to FlightAware. At one point, the airline canceled around 300 flights in the span of a half hour Monday afternoon. And it looks like the Southwest pain will spread into Tuesday. More than 2,400 of those flights scheduled for Tuesday were already canceled as of 10:10 p.m. ET Monday. That's the lion's share of the just-over 2,600 flight cancellations reported so far for Tuesday for all US airlines. At Los Angeles International Airport, about 106 Southwest flights had been canceled as of Monday evening, according to FlightAware, and another 27 were delayed. By comparison, 62 flights were canceled from all other airlines at LAX combined. At Hollywood Burbank Airport, 91 Southwest flights had been canceled and four were delayed. By comparison, only three flights from other airlines were canceled there.

Southwest Cancels Thousands Of More Flights As Operational 'Meltdown' Continues | Six days after a powerful winter storm wreaked havoc on Christmas holiday travel across the US, most major carriers have normalized operations after a few days of widespread cancelations and delays. But at Southwest, it's a very different story. More than 2,300 flights, or 58% of its planned flights on Thursday, had been canceled, according to FlightAware. And the airline said Wednesday that it would only fly one-third of scheduled flights through the end of the week to normalize operations. FlightAware said the budget airline scrapped more than 15,000 flights over the past week. The company issued another apology Wednesday for one of the worst operational mishaps in its five decades of existence. On Tuesday, CEO Robert Jordan said Southwest would operate a reduced schedule to get "back on track before next week." He blamed the winter storm for causing disruptions in the airline's "highly complex" network. Another Southwest executive issued a video apology Wednesday. Ryan Green, Southwest's chief commercial officer, pledged "to do everything we can and to work day and night to repair our relationship" with customers. We shared a leaked memo from the airline that warned of a "state of operational emergency" at its Denver Airport hub after "an unusually high number" of employee absences ahead of Christmas. A combination of factors from staffing shortages, the winter storm, an antiquated crew-scheduling system, and a network designed that allowed cancellations in one region to spread throughout all other airports led to the travel mess.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 225,000 --  The DOL reported: In the week ending December 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,000, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 500 from 221,750 to 221,250. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Labor market mystery: Why higher-income workers are hurting the most - Sen. Elizabeth Warren and other progressives have protested that the Federal Reserve’s steep interest rate hikes threaten to punish millions of ordinary workers. But so far, it’s the higher-income professionals at tech companies and Wall Street banks who have felt the most pain. Goldman Sachs, Amazon and Facebook are among the firms that have announced plans to shed thousands of workers, while there have been comparatively few layoffs at the lower-wage end of the labor market. What’s more, many lower-income workers’ wages are actually beating inflation, which is at a four-decade high. Yet this could all quickly change next year if the kind of recession that economists are predicting arrives — and the hard times for workers could come just as President Joe Biden launches an expected reelection campaign. “Tech and finance are taking the impact of rate hikes the hardest because they gorged the most on low rates,” said David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors. “But if you are a carpenter or a retail worker right now you can still quit your job whenever you want and instantly go somewhere else and get paid more. This won’t continue to be true if we go into a real recession.” The numbers tell the story of the higher-end pain, lower-end gain phenomenon.American companies this year have announced the layoffs of 320,173 workers, a 6 percent increase over the first 11 months of 2021, according to data firm Challenger. Of that number, by far the most came in the tech sector — 80,978, or more than a quarter.Wealthy investors who rely on market gains have also taken a punch. All three major Wall Street indexes are down by double digits on the year with the tech-dominated Nasdaq off the most at 34 percent as of Dec. 23. Over the last year, the cryptocurrency market implosion vaporized over $2 trillion in investor wealth and cost thousands of well-paid workers their jobs. But predictions of hurt for rank-and-file workers have not fully materialized — at least not yet. And there has been plenty of such concern.

New York state nurses vote overwhelmingly to strike - More than 17,000 members of the New York State Nurses Association (NYSNA) have voted by nearly 99 percent to authorize a strike. The nurses, who work at 12 hospitals such as Montefiore, Mount Sinai and NewYork-Presbyterian, have contracts that expire on December 31 and no new agreement for 2023. The ongoing pandemic, made worse by outbreaks of RSV and influenza, has had a devastating impact on the physical and mental health of New York health care workers, who have been on the front lines of the crisis since its inception. New York City nurses are, in fact, veterans of what became the first epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring of 2020. Photographs of exhausted nurses wearing plastic garbage bags, due to a criminal lack of proper personal protective equipment (PPE), shocked the world at the time. Now, nearly three years later, the 42,000 health care workers who constitute the NYSNA rank and file stand among millions of workers worldwide, in all professions, who have been battered by high inflation, staff cuts and overwork brought clearly to light by the horror of the pandemic. The nurses’ growing militancy is a reaction to the refusal of the millionaire heads of giant hospital corporations to sacrifice any portion of their profits for the sake of providing their employees with decent wages, benefits and sustainable work hours. A clear line, however, separates the militant NYSNA rank and file from the bureaucratic apparatus. The role of this apparatus is to stifle and isolate strike actions on behalf of those they in fact serve: the owners. The bureaucrats’ treacherous role in recent struggles makes this clear. In December 2020—at the height of the first year of the pandemic—NYSNA shut down two strikes, one by 2,000 nurses at the Albany Medical Center, and another by 200 nurses at the Montefiore New Rochelle Hospital in Westchester County. In both cases, nurses demanded adequate staffing levels, greater supplies of reliable PPE and improved wages, benefits and working conditions. The union, however, ended both strikes without achieving any of the nurses’ demands. More recently, on September 7, NYSNA held a rally at Westchester Medical Center, according to their website, to “demand a fair contract that includes safe staffing, fair wages and strong retention plans.” The union has been in contract negotiations with the hospital for over a year. Rallies of this type, like the ones that the union held at several New York City hospitals in December 2021, serve to temporarily vent the justified anger of nurses and promote local Democratic Party politicians’ “solidarity” with workers. NYSNA stages the rallies to buy time to finalize another “win” for nurses, by way of a sellout contract that, like the ones before it, fails to win the “safe staffing, fair wages, and strong retention plans” that the rank and file demand. NYSNA is hardly alone in perpetrating betrayals like these. In early December, the Minnesota Nurses Association (MNA) announced that its membership had ratified labor agreements for 15,000 nurses across the state. Nurses were prepared to strike at 16 hospitals in Minneapolis, St. Paul and Twin Ports, Minnesota when the MNA announced that it had reached an agreement with Essentia, Allina and other hospital giants. MNA officials called the deal a “historic win” with “unprecedented language to address chronic understaffing.” The claim proved to be a lie. The agreement provides wage increases of just 17 to 18 percent over the life of the three-year deal. This ostensible raise amounts to a cut in real income for nurses, given the persistently high rate of inflation, which remains greater than 7 percent nationally. To address chronic understaffing, the contract specifies that hospital units must first cross a certain threshold of dangerous conditions for nurses and patients alike before “management and the union” will even “re-evaluate staffing levels.” That is, conditions must deteriorate, and nurses and patients suffer, before the problem is even discussed. The contract does not, moreover, prohibit further staff reductions but says that the union must give its blessing to them first.

Are U.S. Healthcare Workers Better Off Unionized? - Labor unionization among U.S. healthcare workers was low in recent years, even though union membership or coverage was tied to higher weekly earnings and better non-cash benefits, researchers reported. Out of 14,298 healthcare workers surveyed, 13.2% reported union membership or coverage, with no significant trend from 2009 through 2021, according to Xiaojuan Li, PhD, of Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, both in Boston, and colleagues.Unionized healthcare workers had significantly higher reported mean weekly earnings than non-union workers at $1,165 versus $1,042 (P<0.001), the researchers reported in JAMA. And unionized workers were more likely to report having a pension or other retirement benefits at work than non-unionized workers at 57.9% versus 43.4% (risk ratio 1.33, 95% CI 1.26-1.41, P<0.001), the authors found. They also were more likely to report having a higher level of health insurance coverage and higher annual employer contributions to those health plans.Unionized healthcare workers reported more weekly hours than non-unionized workers at 37.4 versus 36.3 hours (P<0.001), but Li's group pointed that the mean differences of 1.11 hours did not indicate "much change in working hours."The study comes as labor unionization efforts have experienced a resurgence in the U.S., with the National Labor Relations Board receiving a 57% increase in union election petitions in the first half of 2022, according to Li and colleagues."For health care workers, the toll of the COVID-19 pandemic -- including struggles obtaining personal protective equipment, inconsistent testing and notification of COVID-19-positive exposures, and inadequate pay with increased work hours -- against the backdrop of increasing burnout prior to the pandemic, has amplified calls for labor unionization to improve working conditions in the U.S. healthcare system," they wrote Labor unions have been shown to improve working conditions in other industries, but their role in the healthcare workforce remains limited, according to the authors, who stated that "[n]o study, to our knowledge, has systematically investigated labor unions and their economic effects across the healthcare workforce."

US gun violence: '6k-plus children killed, injured across US in 2022'- More than 6,000 children have been either killed or injured so far in 2022 across the United States as a result of gun violence, an American nonprofit group reports. Gun Violence Archive (GVA) produced the figure on Tuesday. Breaking down the data, the group said at least 6,032 children, 17 years of age and younger, had been killed or injured due to gun violence so far this year. The number was the highest since the GVA started keeping a record of gun violence casualties in 2014. The figure reflected a notable increase since last year when arbitrary deployment of firearms by civilians were found to be responsible for 5,708 casualties across the country. In line with 2022's figures, 306 children, 11 years of age and younger, died by gunfire, with 668 being injured. Additionally, 1,325 teenagers, aged 12 to 17, died by gunfire, with 3,732 being injured. Last month, the GVA said there had been a total of 609 mass shootings in 2022 in the United States so far, putting the country on pace to reach around 675 by the end of the year.

States put free school meals on the menu - Millions of families who picked up the tab for breakfast and lunch served at public schools this year may see financial relief in the fall if state officials can get their legislatures to cooperate. Before Covid-19, free school meals were usually available only to students who met income requirements for free or reduced-price meals or attended schools that qualified for certain alternative programs. After Congress let a pandemic-era waiver expire on Sept. 30 that allowed all students eat school meals for free, Minnesota, Vermont and Washington, among other states, have tried to step in where the federal government left off. They’re banking on above-average budgets, new legislative sessions and some federal funds to make sure school dishes come at no cost to any child who wants a meal. Minnesota has a budget surplus of nearly $18 billion, which some lawmakers and school meals advocates hope can go toward hunger initiatives. State Rep. Sydney Jordan plans to reintroduce a universal school meals bill in the 2023 session, which starts in January, after an identical bill stalled in 2022. . Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat, has also made free school meals a priority for his second term. Walz, a former educator, stressed that the state “need[s] to see universal meals so this food insecurity issue is taken away.” The pandemic waiver for free school meals, which launched in March 2020, expired at the beginning of the 2022-23 school year after a Covid-19 aid package allowed the Agriculture Department to waive certain regulations for the first time. The percentage of free lunches served dropped from 99.8 percent in May 2022 to 67.5 percent in September, according to data from USDA. Data backs the benefits of universal free school meals. Schools that provided no-cost meals for all students, through the Community Eligibility Provision, saw academic and behavioral benefits for students who didn’t meet the income qualifications for free meals, according to research from Krista Ruffini, a Georgetown University professor who has studied universal free school meals and student achievement.

The School That Calls the Police on Students Every Other Day -  An Illinois school for students with disabilities has routinely used the police to handle discipline, resulting in the highest arrest rate of any district in the country. In one recent year, half of Garrison School students were arrested. On the last street before leaving Jacksonville, there’s a dark brick one-story building that the locals know as the school for “bad” kids. It’s actually a tiny public school for children with disabilities. It sits across the street from farmland and is 2 miles from the Illinois city’s police department, which makes for a short trip when the school calls 911. Administrators at the Garrison School call the police to report student misbehavior every other school day, on average. And because staff members regularly press charges against the children — some as young as 9 — officers have arrested students more than 100 times in the last five school years, an investigation by the Chicago Tribune and ProPublica found. That is an astounding number given that Garrison, the only school that is part of the Four Rivers Special Education District, has fewer than 65 students in most years.  No other school district — not just in Illinois, but in the entire country — had a higher student arrest rate than Four Rivers the last time data was collected nationwide. That school year, 2017-18, more than half of all Garrison students were arrested. Officers typically handcuff students and take them to the police station, where they are fingerprinted, photographed and placed in a holding room. For at least a decade, the local newspaper has included the arrests in its daily police blotter for all to see.  The students enrolled each year at Garrison have severe emotional or behavioral disabilities that kept them from succeeding at previous schools. Some also have been diagnosed with autism, ADHD or other disorders. Many have experienced horrifying trauma, including sexual abuse, the death of parents and incarceration of family members, according to interviews with families and school employees. Getting arrested for behavior at school is not inevitable for students with such challenges. There are about 60 similar public special education schools across Illinois, but none comes anywhere close to Garrison in their number of student arrests, the investigation found.

Appeals court upholds Florida high school’s transgender bathroom ban - — A federal appeals court has ruled that a Florida school district’s policy of separating school bathrooms based on biological sex is constitutional. The 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals announced its 7-4 decision on Friday, ruling that the St. Johns County School Board did not discriminate against transgender students based on sex, or violate federal civil rights law by requiring transgender students to use gender-neutral bathrooms or bathrooms matching their biological sex. The court’s decision was split down party lines, with seven justices appointed by Republican presidents siding with the school district and four justices appointed by Democratic presidents siding with Drew Adams, a former student who sued the district in 2017 because he wasn’t allowed to use the boys restroom. A three-judge panel from the appeals court previously sided with Adams in 2020, but the full appeals court decided to take up the case. Though his assigned gender was female at birth, Adams began the transition to become male before he enrolled in Allen D. Nease High School in Ponte Vedra Beach, just southeast of Jacksonville. Judge Barbara Lagoa wrote in the majority opinion that that the school board policy advances the important governmental objective of protecting students’ privacy in school bathrooms. She said the district’s policy does not violate the law because it’s based on biological sex, not gender identity. Judge Jill Pryor wrote in a dissenting opinion that the interest of protecting privacy is not absolute and must coexist alongside fundamental principles of equality, specifically where exclusion implies inferiority.

A bill in Congress would increase starting teacher pay to $60K. Western Pa. districts think that could be problematic. -  A new bill introduced by a Florida congresswoman aims to incentivize states to increase minimum teacher salaries as the country’s education system faces a growing need for educators. The American Teacher Act was introduced last week by Rep. Frederica S. Wilson, chair of the Higher Education and Workforce Investment Subcommittee. The bill would work to entice states to increase the minimum K-12 teacher salary to $60,000 through a federal grant program. The bill is an attempt to persuade educators to remain in the profession as a national teacher shortage impacts districts across the country — a problem that has been happening for years, but was amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. It also comes at a time when U.S. teachers, who have endured several tumultuous years during the pandemic, are at the forefront of political tensions surrounding issues such as critical race theory and book challenges. “Teachers are the backbone of our education system and economy, playing a foundational role in the development of our children,” Ms. Wilson said in a statement when introducing the bill. “For seven hours a day, they help shape and inspire young minds as well as nurture students academically and socially. As the COVID-19 pandemic brought the world to a standstill, teachers continued to play a critical role in our recovery, underscoring their indispensability.” During the 2020-21 school year, the average starting salary for teachers was $41,770, according to the National Education Association. That would be an increase of $18,230 if the bill were to pass. It also stands to have large implications on Western Pennsylvania schools where many teachers make under $60,000. And while NEA found that the average starting salary for Pennsylvania teachers during the 2020-21 school year was $46,991, the minimum salary set by the state is $18,500 — a precedent first set during the 1988-89 school year. While the bill is touted by many across the state as something that will not only benefit teachers but also school districts who are battling staffing shortages, concerns arose over how districts would cover additional costs related to raising salaries. The bill as it currently stands would authorize funding for a federal four-year grant program — a projection for which does not yet exist — that would offset costs to aid states and districts in implementing the minimum salary while providing

Akron Public Schools strike could start in January -- With winter break set to end in about a week, the union representing Akron Public Schools teachers has issued a 10-day notice of its intent to strikeA letter from the union to its members Wednesday evening said contract talks Dec. 20 and Tuesday with a federal mediator “made it abundantly clear” to the union negotiating team that the school board “continues to have little or no desire to bargain in good faith.”The letter goes on to say that while the Akron Education Association union negotiating team “stands committed and 100% open to negotiating a fair resolution to all outstanding issues, we are united and fully prepared to strike at 12:01 a.m. on Monday, Jan. 9, 2023.”In a news release issued late Thursday morning, the union said “after attempts at resolving outstanding issues through federal mediation failed,” picketing will begin at 9 a.m. Jan. 9. Classes in the 20,000-student district are set to resume Jan. 6 after the winter break. The Akron school board has scheduled a special school board meeting for 5:30 p.m. Thursday. A notice about the school board meeting — sent out late Tuesday afternoon — said the board would go into an executive (private) session to discuss negotiations. Mark Williamson, director of communications for the district, issued a statement Thursday afternoon that said: “We know if we keep negotiating, we can reach an agreement in the best interests of Akron educators, students parents and our community.” Akron district negotiators “are prepared to stay at the table day in and day out to resolve this situation and keep children learning,” the statement continued. “We hope the Akron Education Association shares this commitment with us.”  Teachers and other licensed professionals have been working under terms of the old contract since it expired June 30. The union represents about 2,800 teachers and other licensed professionals, including school psychologists and librarians.

Akron teachers will strike if these contract issues aren't resolved -- The Akron Public Schools teachers union has issued a 10-day strike notice, indicating it intends to strike Jan. 9 if a new contract isn't reached.A fact-finder's report released last month details 19 issues the district and its teachers union could not agree on during contract negotiations and offers recommendations representing wins for both sides. The union rejected the report, while the Akron Board of Education accepted it. Here are some of the main sticking points in ongoing contract negotiations, according to the fact-finder's report:  The biggest issues, according to votes and survey by teachers union members, are school safety, student discipline and how administrators would define assault.

• Akron schools assault issue:'Contact' or 'injury.' Definition of assault a key dispute in APS talks with teachers.  The district has proposed contract language that would replace the word “contact” with “injury” as a way to determine assault. APS suspensions:Akron more aggressively suspends students than most Ohio urban districts, data shows. Akron Public Schools:Superintendent rebuts teachers' safety claims in letter to parents.
• Akron teachers want 5% annual pay raises. The school board, which argued that its proposal was more in line with recently negotiated contracts, called for 1.95%, 1.95% and 2.1% raises in each of the next three years, plus a $500 contract signing bonus.   But inflation is higher than its been in two generations, and teacher shortages are lifting everything from the cost of hiring substitutes to the bargaining power of unions. The union came down from its originally proposed 7%-7%-6.25% annual wage increases and offered 5% in each of the next three years. The fact-finder ultimately recommended 2.25% increases in the first two years of the new contract and a 2.5% increase in the final year, higher than — but closer to — the board’s proposal.
• District wants to explore shorter summer break for Akron students.The union presented evidence that disputes the academic benefit of year-round schooling. An extended school calendar, which some say would stabilize or counter learning lost during the summer, is a strategy current and past school boards and superintendents have considered.   But the administration, according to the fact-finder, did not provide sufficient research on the subject.  Though the fact-finder's report was rejected by the union and, therefore, will not govern labor relations these next three years, the fact-finder presented a path to exploration and agreement on a shorter summer break. The fact-finder accepted the administration’s request to add two members to a Calendar Committee that would study, in the next year, the pros and cons modifying the school calendar to reduce summer learning loss.
• Akron teachers oppose digitizing student records The union objected to the administration’s proposal to digitize student records, which include tracking of student transfers from building to building, disciplinary infractions, behavior  and “any safety concerns for which an incoming educator should be made aware.”  The union raised a concern that digital access to these files, which teachers can pull in hard-copy form today, could be revoked.  The fact-finder largely dismissed that concern, saying the move to digitize records — some of which, like discipline, are already kept online — “is more of a housekeeping item.”

Suspect in deaths of Idaho students arrested in Pennsylvania -  Authorities in Pennsylvania arrested a suspect in the killings of four University of Idaho students who were found stabbed to death in their beds more than a month ago, authorities said Friday. The killings initially mystified law enforcement and shook the small town of Moscow, Idaho, a farming community of about 25,000 people that had not had a murder for five years. Fears of a repeat attack prompted nearly half of the University of Idaho’s over 11,000 students to leave the city and switch to online classes. Bryan Christopher Kohberger, 28, was arrested early Friday morning by the Pennsylvania State Police at a home in Chestnuthill Township, authorities said. He is being held for extradition to Idaho on a warrant for first degree murder, according to arrest paperwork filed in Monroe County Court. More details are expected at a press conference later today, and an extradition hearing is scheduled for Tuesday. Kohberger graduated from Northampton Community College in Pennsylvania with an associate of arts degree in psychology in 2018, said college spokesperson Mia Rossi-Marino. A Ph.D. student by the same name is listed in the Department of Criminal Justice and Criminology at Washington State University, which is a short drive across the state line from the University of Idaho. Messages seeking more information were left for officials at WSU. DeSales University in Pennsylvania confirmed that a student by that name received a bachelor’s degree in 2020 and completed graduate studies in June 2022. The Idaho students — Kaylee Goncalves, Madison Mogen, Xana Kernodle and Ethan Chapin — were stabbed to death at a rental home near campus sometime in the early morning hours of Nov. 13. Investigators were unable to name a suspect or locate a murder weapon for weeks. But the case broke open after law enforcement asked the public for help finding a white Hyundai Elantra sedan seen near the home around the time of the killings. The Moscow Police Department made the request Dec. 7, and by the next day had to direct tips to a special FBI call center because so many were coming in. By mid-December, investigators were working through nearly 12,000 tips and had identified more than 22,000 vehicles matching that make and model.

Cal Grad Student Worker Strike Ends With Deal Panned by Many Rank-and-File Union Members -  The Los Angeles Times reports two bargaining units of United Auto Workers—which represent the 48,000 student workers—approved tentative agreements on contracts that will take effect immediately and run through the end of May 2025. The six-week strike—the largest academic employee walkout in U.S. history—will end, and most U.C. graduate workers will return to their jobs after winter break.While many University of California graduate student workers welcomed Friday’s strike-ending ratification of a new labor agreement that delivers increased pay and benefits, other rank-and-file union members expressed anger and disappointment that the deal does not deliver enough. More than two-thirds (68%) of Student Researchers United (SRU)-UAW members approved the tentative agreement, while about 62% of UAW-2865 members backed the proposal. Support among SRU-UAW voters ranged from 19% at U.C. Santa Cruz to 86% at U.C. Berkeley Lab. For UAW-2865, U.C. San Diego (73%) showed the strongest support for the agreement, while just one in five U.C. Santa Cruz voters approved the deal.The agreement sets minimum salary scales for student workers, raising base pay from around $23,250 to $34,564.50 for 50% time work by October 1, 2024. U.C. Berkeley, U.C. San Francisco, and UCLA workers will get at least $36,500 due to the higher cost of living in the Bay Area and Los Angeles. Childcare reimbursements, non-residential supplemental tuition, and other benefits are included in the package. Nick Geiser, one of the student negotiators, said that “I think this represents one of the most successful collective bargaining agreements in academic history and certainly in modern American labor history.”However, many rank-and-file UAW members opposed the agreement. Fifteen of the 40 student negotiators voted against the deal, arguing that “the proposal is inadequate and that a stronger contract is within reach.”“One of the main issues I have is that the major salary increase will not come to fruition until 2024,” Samia Errazzouki, a doctoral candidate in history at U.C. Davis, told The New York Times. “When I signed up and voted to authorize the strike, my understanding was that we were negotiating to see the fruits immediately.”

West Point Begins Removal, Alteration Of Confederate Memorials On Campus -The U.S. Military Academy at West Point has commenced the removal and modification of 13 Confederate memorials and symbols on its campus at the direction of the Department of Defense. The modifications—recommended by the congressionally mandated Naming Commission and subsequently approved by the Defense Department in October—were to begin over the school’s holiday break, which started on Dec. 18. “Academy leaders and key stakeholders developed a comprehensive plan to ensure that historical artifacts will be professionally and respectfully handled during the execution phase,” the school said in a Dec. 19 statement. “Memorabilia removed during this process will be relocated to appropriate sites, including museums or other suitable venues.” According to a letter (pdf) signed by Lt. Gen. Steve Gilland, superintendent of the U.S. Military Academy, items to be placed in storage includes a portrait of Confederate Gen. Robert E. Lee that hung in the academy’s library, Jefferson Hall; a stone bust of Lee from Reconciliation Plaza; and a bronze triptych from the main entrance of Bartlett Hall. Meanwhile, the portrait and the stone bust of Union Gen. Ulysses Grant that have traditionally accompanied those of Lee will be moved to Grant Hall. By Spring 2023, the school also intends to replace a quote from Lee displayed at Honor Plaza and begin refacing select stone markers at Reconciliation Plaza with modified language and images. Several streets, buildings, and areas around the West Point campus are also slated to be renamed, including Lee Road, Beauregard Place, Hardee Place, Lee Barracks, Lee Housing Area, and Lee Child Development Center.

Biden's 2022 solution to student debt could fall apart in 2023 – For President Joe Biden, deciding to cancel student debt might have been the easy part. Getting it done will prove to be harder. After a drawn-out, intraparty debate over the wisdom of forgiving student debt, Biden heads into the third year of his presidency — and a likely reelection campaign — fighting to keep his signature education policy alive. The plan heads to the Supreme Court in February, where the conservative majority will weigh the legality of canceling up to $20,000 for more than 40 million borrowers. The Education Department approved some 16 million borrowers for the program but their relief remains in limbo as the court decides. Progressives who spent more than a year pushing Biden to cancel debt in the first place say they’re mobilizing in the coming year to hold onto a hard-fought victory.  “It felt, at times, like pulling teeth to get him to champion that cancellation,” said Natalia Abrams, the founder and president of Student Debt Crisis Center, an advocacy group that’s worked with the White House and Democrats on the issue.   “Now he’s gone full force on it,” Abrams said. “I think he does care about student loan borrowers and about this issue. I don’t see him walking away.” With the window for major legislative victories closing as Republicans prepare to take control of the House, Biden has not fundamentally reformed how American higher education is financed. While his big plan tackles the backend of the costs, his most sweeping proposals for free college and dramatically expanding student aid are effectively dead for now.

Health care is increasingly unaffordable for people with employer-sponsored health insurance—especially women: Analysis -Health care is growing less affordable for U.S. adults—particularly women—with employer-sponsored health insurance, according to an analysis by researchers at the NYU School of Global Public Health published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). "In recent years, employer-sponsored health insurance has become less adequate in providing financial protection for all kinds of health care services," said Avni Gupta, a Ph.D. student in the Department of Public Health Policy and Management at NYU School of Global Public Health and the lead author of the JAMA analysis. The majority of working-age adults in the U.S. (61% as of 2019) obtain health insurance coverage through their employers. Despite improvements in employer-sponsored insurance by the Affordable Care Act—including extending parents' coverage to uninsured young adults, eliminating copays and deductibles for preventive services, and implementing maternal care coverage—health care costs and out-of-pocket expenditures have continued to rise. Using the National Health Interview Survey, a nationally representative annual survey conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the researchers analyzed data from 2000 to 2020 for more than 238,000 adults aged 19 to 64 years who obtained their health care coverage through an employer or union. Women with employer-sponsored insurance found all types of health care services to be less affordable than men. On average, 3.9% of women and 2.7% of men reported that medical care was unaffordable, 8.1% of women and 5.4% of men said dental care was unaffordable, 5.2% of women and 2.7% of men said prescription medications were unaffordable, and 2.1% of women and 0.8% of men reported that mental health care was unaffordable.

Hundreds of US hospitals sue patients or threaten their credit, investigation finds  - Despite growing evidence of the harm caused by medical debt, hundreds of U.S. hospitals maintain policies to aggressively pursue patients for unpaid bills, using tactics such as lawsuits, selling patient accounts to debt buyers, and reporting patients to credit rating agencies, a KHN investigation shows. The collection practices are commonplace among all types of hospitals in all regions of the country, including public university systems, leading academic institutions, small community hospitals, for-profit chains, and nonprofit Catholic systems. Individual hospital systems have come under scrutiny in recent years for suing patients. But the KHN analysis shows the practice is widespread, suggesting most of the nation's approximately 5,100 hospitals serving the general public have policies to use legal action or other aggressive tactics against patients. And although industry officials say they are careful about how they target patients for unpaid bills, few institutions have renounced what federal rules call "extraordinary collection actions," even as medical debt forces millions of Americans to cut back on food and other essentials, drain retirement savings, and make other difficult sacrifices. At the same time, a majority of hospitals scrutinized by KHN effectively shroud their collection activities, publicly posting incomplete or in many cases no information about what can happen to patients if they can't pay. These are among the findings of an examination of billing and financial aid at a diverse sample of 528 hospitals across the country. Over the past year, KHN investigated each of these hospitals, reviewing thousands of pages of policies and other documents. The reporting also included thousands of telephone and email inquiries and interviews to obtain and clarify how hospitals handle patients with unpaid bills. Some hospitals did not respond to multiple requests for information. But KHN was able to gather details about most. From them, a picture emerges of a minefield for patients where a trip to the hospital can not only produce jaw-dropping bills but also expose patients to legal risks that jeopardize their livelihood. Among the findings:

• More than two-thirds sue patients or take other legal action against them, such as garnishing wages or placing liens on property
• A similar share of the hospitals report patients with outstanding bills to credit rating agencies, putting patients' credit scores and their ability to rent an apartment, buy a car, or get a job at risk
• A quarter sell patients' debts to debt collectors, who in turn can pursue patients for years for unpaid bills
• About 1 in 5 deny nonemergency care to people with outstanding debt
• Nearly 40% of all hospitals researched make no information available on their websites about their collection activities, although KHN in some cases was able to obtain the information through repeated requests

"People don't know what's going to happen to them. It can be terrifying," said Tracy Douglas, a consumer attorney at Bet Tzedek Legal Services in Los Angeles. Douglas described one older woman she worked with who was afraid to seek financial assistance from a hospital because she worried the hospital would seize her home if she couldn't pay.

Physician Wants Hospital CEO Pay Capped at $800K -- A former physician at the MetroHealth System in Cleveland has called for a cap on CEO pay after the health system's top executive allegedly awarded himself and others more than $2.2 million in unauthorized bonuses last year.Kenneth Frisof, MD, a retired family medicine doctor, wrote in a letter to the editor of Cleveland.com that CEO pay should be capped at $800,000."A MetroHealth physician friend of mine says that we need to view health care as a public service rather than as a profit-oriented industry," Frisof wrote in the letter. "And, as part of that, let's cap hospital system CEO salaries at $800,000, twice the salary of our most powerful public servant, the president of the United States."The MetroHealth System Board of Trustees fired former CEO Akram Boutros, MD, last month alleging that he gave himself $1.9 million in bonuses between 2018 and 2022 without the board's approval. Boutros was set to step down from his role at the end of this month, according to reportsBoutros, who led the MetroHealth System for nearly 10 years, allegedly gave himself bonuses after conducting "self-assessments" of his job performance, in which he established metrics and rewarded himself based on his ability to meet them. Social justice initiatives, including efforts to address the opioid epidemic and expand hospital reach within the community, factored heavily into these self-evaluations, Cleveland.com reported."We all recognize the wonderful things Dr. Boutros has done for our hospital and for the community," Vanessa Whiting, chair of the MetroHealth System, said in a statement on Boutros's termination. "However, we know of no organization permitting its CEO to self-evaluate and determine their entitlement to an additional bonus and at what amount, as Dr. Boutros has done."

The mounting death toll of hospital cyberattacks - Cyberattacks are getting deadlier — and hospitals on the frontline are straining under increasing attacks. As the Covid-19 pandemic swept the world over the past three years, cybercriminals took advantage of the chaotic situation and repeatedly shut down hospitals’ networks at a time when they were least able to respond. That has meant curtailed emergency services, canceled operations and more deaths. As cyberstrikes take lives, it’s changing the calculation for how to respond to devastating hacks both at facilities inside the U.S. and in international conflicts like Ukraine. Cyberattacks have long been treated as a lower level of warfare than missile strikes, but as they hit hospitals and get more lethal, that could be changing. It’s time “to view these types of attacks, ransomware attacks on hospitals, as threat-to-life crimes, not financial crimes,” said John Riggi, the national adviser for cybersecurity and risk at the American Hospital Association. Ransomware attacks — in which hackers encrypt networks and demand payment to unlock them — have been some of the most common strikes against medical facilities. While numbers for cyberattack-related hospital deaths are hard to come by because of the variety of contributing factors and the fact that deaths can occur weeks or months after an interruption in care, there are some deaths that have been directly attributed to a cyberattack. A 2021 study from Proofpoint and the Ponemon Institute , which surveyed more than 600 health care facilities, found that mortality rates increased at a quarter of the facilities following a ransomware attack. In 2020, a ransomware attack forced a hospital in Düsseldorf, Germany, to close its emergency department, and a patient died in an ambulance while being rerouted to another hospital. In 2020, a woman sued an Alabama hospital after the death of her newborn baby, alleging that doctors failed to carry out critical pre-birth testing due to a cyberattack on the hospital, which meant the baby was born with the cord around its neck. This led to brain damage and — a few months later — the baby’s death, she argued. And the pace of such cyberattacks has been increasing. “Unfortunately, 2022 appears to be another record year in terms of the volume of attacks against U.S. health care and the volume of sensitive patient information which has been either stolen or compromised by these foreign-based cyber adversaries,” Riggi said.

US life expectancy drops to lowest level since 1996 - Life expectancy in the United States decreased for the second year in a row in 2021, according to final mortality data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The death rate for the population increased by 5.3 percent above 2020, leading to a decline in life expectancy from 77 years to 76.4 years, the lowest level since 1996. The progress of a quarter-century of medical advances has essentially been wiped out in just two years. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy in the US has fallen by 2.4 years total. The decrease of a .6 year in 2021 mounts on top of the loss of 1.8 years recorded in 2020. As the World Socialist Web Site noted when the CDC’s preliminary mortality report was issued in August, the figures constitute “a damning indictment of the homicidal response to the pandemic that has characterized the Trump and Biden administrations. Biden—who was elected in large part because of popular revulsion at Trump’s callous and anti-scientific response to COVID-19 and who was armed with effective vaccines from the beginning of his term—stands thoroughly exposed.” Indeed, despite the availability of lifesaving COVID-19 vaccines and Democratic control of the White House and Congress, 2021 was far deadlier than 2020. According to CDC data, total US deaths increased by 80,502 compared to 2020, above all, due to the continuing pandemic. Citing CDC statistician Kenneth Kochanek, NPR notes that COVID-19 accounted for nearly 60 percent of the decline in life expectancy in 2021. The total number of deaths in which COVID-19 was the underlying cause increased by 18.8 percent, from 350,831 in 2020 to 416,893 in 2021. It remained the third leading cause of death in 2021 following heart disease and cancer. In addition to COVID-19, death rates also increased for eight of the 10 leading causes of death. These include unintentional injuries (which increased 12.3 percent), a category which includes the soaring rates of drug overdose; chronic liver disease and cirrhosis (which increased 9.0 percent); kidney disease (which increased 7.1 percent) and stroke (which increased 5.9 percent). Both influenza and pneumonia dropped from the top 10 causes of death in 2021, likely due to the limited mitigation measures that were still in place last year but which have since been abandoned. As the WSWS correctly warned, with the ending of remaining COVID-19 mitigations, viruses such as influenza would be able to freely circulate and deaths from these illnesses could easily climb again. Data suggests this is exactly what is taking place. The CDC currently estimates there have been between 12,000 and 35,000 influenza deaths so far this season, compared to an estimated 5,000 deaths last flu season. In late November, weekly influenza cases reached the highest level on record. One of the most alarming aspects of the report is the fact that death rates are increasing in every age group above one year old. Among ages 1-4, the death rate increased by 10.1 percent. Adults aged 35-44 experienced the largest increase in the death rate at 16.1 percent. Should these trends continue, a child born in the US today is expected to live a shorter life than his or her grandparents. The CDC report estimates that the average 65 year old in America will live another 18.4 years, bringing them to age 83.4 years old, compared to the 76.4 years now expected at birth.

The Fast-Spreading New COVID-19 Subvariant XBB Is Part of a ‘New Class’ of Omicron - For the past several months, Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 have dominated COVID-19 cases in the U.S. But now, there’s a class of new COVID subvariants on the rise and one in particular is getting plenty of attention. It’s called XBB—or Gryphon—and there’s a chance it could overtake everything else out there. XBB is getting a lot of buzz because it spreads fast—and seems to be able to evade immunity that people have built up from having a previous COVID-19 infection or getting the vaccine, says William Schaffner, M.D., an infectious disease specialist and professor at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. Still, Dr. Schaffner says, “it’s early days and we have a lot to learn.” XBB is one of the “new class” of Omicron variants that are spreading fast right now, says Thomas Russo, M.D., professor and chief of infectious disease at the University at Buffalo in New York. That includes BQ.1.1, BQ.1, BQ.1.3, BA.2.3.20, and XBB, he says. “XBB is a hybrid version of two strains of the BA.2 form of Omicron,” explains Amesh A. Adalja, M.D., a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. It’s currently “spreading efficiently in Singapore,” he adds. The variant was first detected in August 2022 in India, and has been detected in more than 17 countries since then, including Australia, Bangladesh, Denmark, India, Japan and the U.S., per Singapore’s Ministry of Health. XBB is thought to have the best ability to evade antibody protections of these newly emerged COVID variants, according to a pre-print study from researchers in China. That study said that the new strains of Omicron, and XBB in particular, “are the most antibody-evasive strain tested, far exceeding BA.5 and approaching SARS-CoV-1 level.” (SARS-CoV-1, in case you’re not familiar with it, is the strain of coronavirus that causes SARS, a respiratory virus that can cause severe illness.) Meaning, the vaccine and having previously had COVID-19 are not thought to offer the same level of protection against XBB as they have with previous strains of COVID-19. Antibody drugs like Evusheld and bebtelovimab may also not be very effective against XBB, the pre-print study says. “These variants are evolving to evade protection,” Dr. Russo says. The bivalent booster is “likely going to be protective against severe disease” with XBB, but will be “imperfect against preventing infection," Dr. Russo says.

Neutralization against BA.2.75.2, BQ.1.1, and XBB from mRNA Bivalent Booster | NEJM - The emergence of the highly divergent B.1.1.529 (omicron) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) led to concerns about the efficacy of vaccines based on the ancestral spike and to the approval in the United States of bivalent vaccines for coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) that include the ancestral spike and the omicron BA.5 spike proteins.^1-3  Of particular concern is the R346T mutation, which has arisen in multiple omicron subvariants, including BA.2.75.2, BQ.1.1, and XBB (Fig. S1 in the Supplementary Appendix, available with the full text of this letter at NEJM.org). We tested serum samples obtained from participants who had received either one or two monovalent boosters or the bivalent booster to determine the neutralization efficiency of the booster vaccines against wild-type (WA1/2020) virus and primary isolates of omicron subvariants BA.1, BA.5, BA.2.75.2, BQ.1.1, and XBB using an in vitro, live-virus focus reduction neutralization test (FRNT). All the participants provided written informed consent. In all three cohorts, neutralization activity was lower against all omicron subvariants than against the WA1/2020 strain; neutralizing activity was lowest against the XBB subvariant (Figure 1 and Fig. S2). In the cohort that received one monovalent booster, the FRNT₅₀ GMTs were 857 against WA1/2020, 60 against BA.1, 50 against BA.5, 23 against BA.2.75.2, 19 against BQ.1.1, and below the limit of detection against XBB. In the cohort that received two monovalent boosters, the FRNT₅₀ GMTs were 2352 against WA1/2020, 408 against BA.1, 250 against BA.5, 98 against BA.2.75.2, 73 against BQ.1.1, and 37 against XBB. The results in both of these cohorts correspond with neutralization titers against BA.1 and BA.5 that were 5 to 9 times as low as that against WA1/2020 and neutralization titers against BA.2.75.2, BQ.1.1, and XBB that were 23 to 63 times as low as that against WA1/2020. In the cohort that received the BA.5-containing bivalent booster, the neutralizing activity against all the omicron subvariants as compared with that against WA1/2020 was better than in the other two cohorts (Figure 1C). The FRNT₅₀ GMTs were 2481 against WA1/2020, 618 against BA.1, 576 against BA.5, 201 against BA.2.75.2, 112 against BQ.1.1, and 96 against XBB. The results in this cohort correspond with neutralization titers against BA.1 and BA.5 that were 4 times as low as that against WA1/2020 and neutralization titers against BA.2.75.2, BQ.1.1, and XBB that were 12 to 26 times as low as that against WA1/2020.

Autopsies Show COVID-19 in the Brain -   How can a respiratory pathogen like SARS-CoV-2 cause the nervous system to go haywire? That's the question researchers posed in January, and it's still being asked nearly a year later.   Neurologic complications of COVID are diverse and can be long-lasting, noted Avindra Nath, MD, of the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, at the time. "They are largely immune-mediated, the brain endothelial cells being a major target," he told MedPage Today. Research throughout the year supported this view. In July, an autopsy study of nine COVID patients showed vascular damage with serum proteins leaking into the brain parenchyma, accompanied by widespread endothelial cell activation. Consistent with other studiesopens in a new tab or window, SARS-CoV-2 virus was not detected in the brain.But in December, an autopsy report of 44 people who died with COVID-19 in the first year of the pandemic showed that SARS-CoV-2 virus had spread throughout the body -- including the brain -- and persisted in tissue for months.Despite this, there was little evidence of inflammation or direct viral cytopathology outside the respiratory tract, reported Daniel Chertow, MD, MPH, of the NIH Clinical Center and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and co-authors in Nature."We did a total of 44 autopsies and in 11 of those, we were able to do a detailed evaluation of the brain," Chertow told MedPage Today. "In most of those individuals where we had brain [samples], we did find evidence of viral RNA and protein across multiple regions we sampled.""And in one of those patients, using a modified Vero cell line that expresses the human ACE2 and TMPRSS2 receptors, we actually were able to culture virus from the brain," he continued. "So we were able to show not just the presence of viral components -- RNA and protein -- but also live, replication-competent virus.".

U.S. Covid Test Positivity Up By 18% In A Fortnight -  The United States has reported an 18 percent increase in coronavirus test positivity in the last two weeks. In states such as Arizona, Utah, South Dakota and Missouri, test positivity rates are above 20 percent. As per the latest data published by the New York Times, 14 percent of people who are subjected to Covid test nationwide are diagnosed with coronavirus infection. This is the highest rate in many months. For most of this year, the test positivity rate has been consistently recorded below 9 percent. Along with this, Covid hospitalizations in the U.S. are on a rising trend. U.S. hospitals reported a 1 percent increase in the number of Covid patients in the last two weeks. The number of I.C.U. admissions due to the worse stage of the viral disease increased by 10 percent. 40,497 people are hospitalized due to Covid. 4,997 of these patients are admitted in intensive care units. Covid positive cases dwindled by 2 percent in the country in the last two weeks. Covid deaths are down 24 percent from the rate recorded a fortnight ago. With 10,4021 new cases of coronavirus infection reported on Wednesday, the total U.S. Covid cases reached 100,583,089, as per Johns Hopkins University's latest data. With 901 deaths reported the same day, the total number of people who have lost their lives due to coronavirus infection in the country rose to 1,091,478. A total of 99,367,089 people in the U.S. have recovered from the killer disease so far, Worldometers data shows. 2,531 additional deaths were reported globally on Wednesday, taking the total number of people who have lost their lives due to the pandemic so far to 6,685,410.

XBB is now the dominant COVID variant in New England. -   Nearly three years into the COVID-19 pandemic, another new strain of the virus is making headlines. This time, it’s the XBB subvariant of omicron — a combination of two pre-existing omicron subvariants — which, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has gone from a blip on the epidemiological radar in New England in late October to the dominant iteration of the virus in the region as 2022 draws to a close. Experts say the current evidence indicates that existing tools — including vaccines, tests and medication treatments — all appear effective against the new subvariant. But the rapid spread suggests that XBB is more contagious than other strains — and also more adept at evading the immune systems of people who’ve already contracted and recovered from other strains of the coronavirus.“The properties of the virus that the immune system sees, like the spike protein, are different in a way that causes antibodies from prior infections to not bind as efficiently,” said Sam Scarpino, the director of AI + Life Sciences at Northeastern University. “For individuals that have been previously infected … their antibodies will not neutralize XBB, and they can be reinfected.” The World Health Organization says early data suggests people who caught COVID-19 before the omicron wave (which hit Massachusetts in late 2021) are more likely to be susceptible to infection from XBB than those who were sickened by another omicron strain. It's also important to note that the rapid tests currently available for at-home use should be effective when it comes to detecting XBB infection, making them a valuable tool for pre- and post-New Year's screening.“Because we have the potential for a surge with the mixing of people, the gatherings, the mobility, the waning of immunity, we just need to be careful as we head into these holiday gatherings,” Brownstein said. “So of course, if you’re sick, you should stay home. If you can test the day of a gathering, that’s ideal.”Brownstein also suggests utilizing what he calls situational masking, while taking public transportation or in other large, crowded spaces.“That will help reduce the overall risk of transmission at your holiday gatherings, but also help mitigate a potential larger surge and … impact on our hospitals, which for many months have been dealing with capacity concerns and a really strained workforce,” Brownstein said.Pierre advises taking masking a bit further over the next few days, given XBB’s seemingly high transmissibility and the close quarters in which many of us are likely to find ourselves.“If you’re going to an outdoor space, I recommend trying to distance yourself from others at least 6 feet,” she said. “But if you’re finding yourself in a densely packed crowd, even though it’s safer than being indoors, you may still want to put on that mask."

CDC warns of XBB Covid subvariant ahead of New Year's celebrations – (news video) New data from the CDC shows a rapid nationwide spread of the newest Covid-19 subvariant, XBB, as cases have doubled in the past week. NBC News’ Valerie Castro reports on how with New Years' celebrations around the corner, experts are urging the public to take precautions.

Alarming antibody evasion properties of rising SARS-CoV-2 BQ and XBB subvariants - The BQ and XBB subvariants of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron are now rapidly expanding, possibly due to altered antibody evasion properties deriving from their additional spike mutations. Here, we report that neutralization of BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, and XBB.1 by sera from vaccinees and infected persons was markedly impaired, including sera from individuals boosted with a WA1/BA.5 bivalent mRNA vaccine. Titers against BQ and XBB subvariants were lower by 13- to 81-fold and 66- to 155-fold, respectively, far beyond what had been observed to date. Monoclonal antibodies capable of neutralizing the original Omicron variant were largely inactive against these new subvariants, and the responsible individual spike mutations were identified. These subvariants were found to have similar ACE2-binding affinities as their predecessors. Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies.

A new variant alert – by Dr Eric Topol - - Dec 23 - As everyone who has been following the Omicron family of SARS-CoV-2 descendants in recent months, there’s a swarm of new subvariants. One of these is XBB, which is a recombinant (fusion) of 2 different BA.2 variants, BJ.1 (BA.2.10.1.1) and BA.2.75 (BA.2.75.3.1.1.1), depicted below by both the tree and mutation map. Now it appears that in New York State, XBB evolved further to XBB.1.5, with new mutations, which was aptly first noted by JP Weiland a couple of weeks ago, coincident with the beginning of a steep rise of hospitalizations there. The key mutation of XBB.1.5 is clearly F486P, which had been identified many months ago by the Bloom lab as one that would be tied to immunity escape and Ryan Hisner wrote about extensively in August. As you can see from Daniele Focosi’s convergent variant map of the BA.2 descendants, XBB.1.5 is one to acquire the F486P mutation. As Jesse Bloom warned us from their comprehensive screening of spike protein nucelotides, “Watch those sites for future mutations!” (see 486 below) As Ryan Hisner very recently posted: “F486P is a hell of a mutation, as Jesse Bloom’s lab RBD heat map made clear many months ago. It's the #1 AA residue for RBD expression and ACE2 binding strength. It just took the virus a while to get over the 2-nuc-mutation barrier.” Of all the variants in the current mix, XBB.1.5 has the most growth advantage vs. BA.5 with substantial dropdown for the others as seen in the Cov-spectrum Table below, and a large number of sequenced samples to narrow the confidence intervals (CI). Now that is playing out in New York and the Northeast regions of the United States. Back on December 13, Raj Rajnarayanan posted the comparison of XBB.1.5 vs BQ.1.1 in New York State showing the marked growth advantage. Here is the most updated variant mix in New York through December 17th showing the rise of XBB. In the new CDC genomic surveillance, you can see the rise of XBB that has now stunted BQ.1’s growth pattern. That is to say that BQ.1’s dominance is static while XBB is on the move. You can see this better in the Northeast regions where XBB has already become dominant (>50%), a jump from ~35% last week. While we don’t have the sequence data to say it is the XBB.1.5 variant specifically, all indications would suggest that is indeed leading the pack within the XBBs. If XBB.1.5 has such rapid growth advantage over BQ.1.1, that isn’t a good sign. Last week, David Ho’s lab at Columbia University published a paper in Cell entitled “Alarming antibody evasion properties of rising SARS-CoV-2 BQ and XBB subvariants.” We had known from Yunlong Cao’s lab that XBB and BQ.1.1 were among the most immune evasive variants seen to date, but this new paper established that the immune evasion for XBB.1 is more than BQ.1.1. Today, Yunlong Cao just posted new data (bottom panel below) to show that XBB.1.5 is not more immune evasive than XBB (good) but it has tighter bind to its ACE2 receptor, which would explain its higher level of transmissibility. This XBB.1.5 variant is yet another stepwise mutations (now 9) from BA.2 with the fusion as noted above, and well seen in this newly revised Figure by Rodrigo Quiroga (@rquiroga777) with F486P representing the 9th mutation. JP Weiland compared the effective reproduction number (Rt) for XBB.1.5 with XBB and multiple other variants over time since each started spreading (below New York data). “XBB.1.5 appears faster and more sustained than ANY of the variants since Omicron's first wave[BA.1] last January.”>

COVID variant XBB.1.5 now accounts for 40 percent of cases in the US: CDC- The omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 has rapidly spread to become the dominant COVID-19 mutation in the U.S., now accounting for 40.5 percent of all cases.The XBB.1.5 omicron subvariant as of this week has pushed out the BQ.1 and the BQ.1.1 subvariants from their previous positions as the most detected coronavirus mutations, according to surveillance conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).The XBB subvariant, from which XBB.1.5 descends, is a recombinant of two subvariants that descended from the BA.2 omicron subvariant. That means it carries genetic data from two versions of the coronavirus that originated from the BA.2 subvariant.Regionally, XBB.1.5 now accounts for the majority of COVID-19 cases in the northeast, identified as causing 75 percent of cases in New England and in the New York tri-state area.The omicron subvariants XBB and XBB.1 were first identified in India. Some scientists, including Scripps Research Institute professor of molecular medicine Eric Topol, have put forward the possibility that XBB.1.5 could have mutated in New York.The BQ.1.1 omicron subvariant still commands the lion’s share of U.S. cases in the South and toward the West, though its dominance appears to be dropping in the southeastern region of the country.While data on XBB.1.5 is currently limited, researchers from Columbia University recently published an article in the journal Cell finding that sublineages of the BQ and XBB omicron subvariants had a “dramatically increased” ability to evade antibody protection, even among those who had received the bivalent booster dose.“However, it is important to emphasize that although infections may now be more likely, COVID-19 vaccines have been shown to remain effective at preventing hospitalization and severe disease even against Omicron as well as possibly reducing the risk of post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC or long COVID),” the researchers noted in their article.

CDC tracking rise of new XBB.1.5 COVID variant, already more than 40% of U.S. cases - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday it is tracking a new variant of concern dubbed XBB.1.5. According to new figures published Friday, it estimates XBB.1.5 makes up 40.5% of new infections across the country. XBB.1.5's ascent is overtaking other Omicron variant cousins BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, which had dominated a wave of infections over the fall. Scientists believe its recent growth could be driven by key mutations on top of what was already one of the more immune evasive strains of Omicron to date. "We're projecting that it's going to be the dominant variant in the Northeast region of the country and that it's going to increase in all regions of the country," said Dr. Barbara Mahon, director of the CDC's proposed Coronavirus and Other Respiratory Viruses Division, in an interview with CBS News. Mahon said the agency had not listed XBB.1.5 separately in its earlier projections because the strain had not cleared a minimum threshold in the underlying sequences collected by the agency. The agency's 40.5% figure is only a projection, Mahon stressed, with a probability interval ranging right now from 22.7% to 61.0%. XBB.1.5's prevalence is largest in the Northeast, the agency estimates. Most of the earliest cases from XBB.1.5 recorded in global databases through early November were sequenced around New York and Massachusetts. More than 70% of infections in the regions spanning New Jersey through New England are now from XBB.1.5, the agency is projecting. The ascent of XBB.1.5 comes as COVID-19 hospitalizations have accelerated across the U.S. in recent weeks. The pace of new admissions is now worse than this past summer's peak in several regions, but still lower than at this time last winter. "There's no suggestion at this point that XBB.1.5 is more severe. But I think it is a really good time for people to do the things that we have been saying for quite a while are the best ways to protect themselves," said Mahon. This month, the Northeast has recorded some of the worst COVID-19 hospital admission rates out of any region in the country. In New England, the CDC says new hospitalizations among Americans 70 and older have climbed to the highest levels seen since early February. Around 13% of Americans are currently living in areas of "high" COVID-19 Community Levels, where the agency currently urges masking. Los Angeles, Miami, and New York City rank among the biggest counties now at these levels. Mahon said XBB.1.5's mutations could be part of driving the increase where XBB had failed to gain a foothold. But she added that other factors, like the higher risk posed by respiratory viruses during the winter holiday season, could also be playing a factor. Mahon cited the agency's recommendations to seek out updated COVID booster shots, as well as taking other precautions like improving ventilation, testing before gathering, or masking in high COVID areas. The XBB.1.5 strain is a spinoff of the XBB variant, itself a "recombinant" blend of two prior Omicron strains, which drove a wave of infections overseas earlier this year. Earlier this year, the Biden administration had voiced optimism that XBB was unlikely to dominate infections in the country. South Asian nations like Singapore reported that strain appeared to pose a lower risk of hospitalization relative to earlier Omicron variants.

Covid news: omicron XBB.1.5 is immune evasive, binds better to cells -  The Covid omicron XBB.1.5 variant is rapidly becoming dominant in the U.S. because it is highly immune evasive and appears more effective at binding to cells than related subvariants, scientists say. XBB.1.5 now represents about 41% of new cases nationwide in the U.S., nearly doubling in prevalence over the past week, according to the data published Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The subvariant more than doubled as a share of cases every week through Dec. 24. In the past week, it nearly doubled from 21.7% prevalence. Scientists and public health officials have been closely monitoring the XBB subvariant family for months because the strains have many mutations that could render the Covid-19 vaccines, including the omicron boosters, less effective and cause even more breakthrough infections. XBB was first identified in India in August. It quickly become dominant there, as well as in Singapore. It has since evolved into a family of subvariants including XBB.1 and XBB.1.5. Andrew Pekosz, a virologist at Johns Hopkins University, said XBB.1.5 is different from its family members because it has an additional mutation that makes it bind better to cells. “The virus needs to bind tightly to cells to be more efficient at getting in and that could help the virus be a little bit more efficient at infecting people,” Pekosz said. Yunlong Richard Cao, a scientist and assistant professor at Peking University, published data on Twitter Tuesday that indicated XBB.1.5 not only evades protective antibodies as effectively as the XBB.1 variant, which was highly immune evasive, but also is better at binding to cells through a key receptor. Scientists at Columbia University, in a study published earlier this month in the journal Cell, warned that the rise of subvariants such as XBB could “further compromise the efficacy of current COVID-19 vaccines and result in a surge of breakthrough infections as well as re-infections.” The XBB subvariants are also resistant to Evusheld, an antibody cocktail that many people with weak immune systems rely on for protection against Covid infection because they don’t mount a strong response to the vaccines. The scientists described the resistance of the XBB subvariants to antibodies from vaccination and infection as “alarming.” The XBB subvariants were even more effective at dodging protection from the omicron boosters than the BQ subvariants, which are also highly immune evasive, the scientists found.

XBB COVID variant presents a unique threat: study - While the U.S. and other countries focus on the increasing footprint of sub-subvariants of the omicron iteration of COVID-19, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, healthcare systems here and around the world might also want to keep a wary eye on yet another sub-subvariant: XBB. Japanese researchers say in a preprint study posted Tuesday that XBB exhibits a unique path into existence not seen before in COVID-19 variants, and this gives it more of a “profound resistance to antiviral humoral immunity induced by breakthrough infections of prior Omicron subvariants.” Their findings (PDF) were posted on medRxiv, a website featuring studies that have not yet been peer reviewed. XBB was first identified by researchers at Peking University in Beijing in September, and one of the authors of that study said that “XBB is currently the most antibody-evasive strain tested.” The study, unveiled Tuesday by researchers with the University of Tokyo, bolsters that assessment, stating that “to our knowledge, this is the first documented example of a SARS-CoV-2 variant increasing its fitness through recombination rather than single mutations.” Recombination means the joining of variants that arise from two genetically distinct parental strains, creating opportunities for a virus to adapt to, and escape from, antibodies and other genetic roadblocks, be they produced by scientists or nature. Recombination presented a significant challenge in the early days of the fight against HIV/AIDS. Kevin Kavanagh, M.D., is the president and founder of the patient advocacy organization Health Watch USA and has kept a close eye on COVID-19 throughout the pandemic. Kavanagh told Fierce Healthcare that “the most disturbing finding in the study is that this virus is a recombinant virus where two different genomes or genetic materials from viruses were recombined, as opposed to a chance mutation.” Kavanagh pointed out that the U.S. healthcare system currently deals with the tripledemic of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and COVID-19. Kavanagh said how, in the summer, Texas Children’s Hospital had to deal with about 25 cases where children had been infected by RSV and COVID-19 at the same time. “If viruses can start swapping genetic material, then the sky is the limit on the number of variants and the various characteristics which may be produced,” says Kavanagh.

Coronavirus dashboard for year end 2022: becoming endemic, and still an important threat to seniors – (a dozen graphics) As we close out 2022, let’s look back at the overall picture for COVID. The best historical measure of actual infections is Biobot, which samples wastewater. This is because the advent of easy home testing one year ago meant that far fewer people have had “confirmed” cases this year in comparison to “actual” infections. The solid line in the graph below is the level of particles (left scale) from which actual case levels can be inferred (right scale): Current levels are now higher than any other wave peak except for last winter’s Omicron. Regionally the Northeast is faring the worst, although its current outbreak is not yet at the level of its first, disastrous, wave. The South is also increasing sharply, while for now the West remains in relatively good shape: As you can see, this contrasts with “confirmed” cases, which while they have increased, are well below all previous waves: But hospitalizations and deaths are much more reliable, since cases have always generally been confirmed. Hospitalizations have increased 50% from their recent lows, but are well below all prior waves of infections at this point: The same is true of deaths, which since March have varied between 300-500/day, well below their levels at any previous times during the pandemic: Deaths continue to be concentrated among the unvaccinated or not-fully vaccinated: And they also skew much higher with age: Even fully vaccinated seniors should probably remain on guard, and in particular mask up whenever indoors in public places. Altogether, non-fully vaccinated people over age 50 account for nearly 3/4’s of all COVID deaths. Vaccinations in the US hit a wall this year, only increasing from about 65% to 70% of the population fully vaccinated, and only increasing from 75% to 80% even partially vaccinated during the entire year: Total deaths from Covid have increased by 100,000 in the past 9 months (i.e., at a 133,000 annual rate), to 1.1 million: Total *confirmed* cases in the US have just topped 100,000,000, about 20,000,000 of which have been during the last 9 months: Because *actual* cases were at least double confirmed cases before this year, and at least triple the number of confirmed cases this year after home testing became widely available, probably about 240,000,000 or more Americans (or about 75%+ of the population) have at one point or another been infected. Finally, here is the what the prevalence of the Alphabet soup of newer variants looks like at the moment. XBB and its subvariant XBB.1.5 make up 44% of all cases, BQ.1&1.1 another 45%, with BA.5 down under 4% and the remaining variants in the soup 7%: The biggest regional outbreaks showed by Biobot correspond with the highest prevalence of variant XBB: Note that XBB%1.5. Is most prevalent, at 75%, the Northeastern regions, followed by roughly 20% in the Southern regions, and less in the Midwest and West, corresponding almost exactly to the Biobot data referenced at the beginning of this article. Between previous infections and vaccinations, probably only 5%or less of the population is totally “naive” to the Covid virus, with no resistance whatsoever. This, along with improved medical care, probably explains why Covid has become much less deadly on a per capita basis this year. It is well on its way to becoming endemic. The bottom line is, we keep seeing ever more easily transmissible variants, with low hospitalizations and even lower deaths. In the last 9 months, deaths have tranistioned from 500,000/year to 133,000/year. The lion’s share of deaths skew to the under-vaccinated and the elderly. If people over age 50 were all fully up to date in their vaccinations and always masked in indoor public spaces (yes, this means *no* indoor restaurant dining), deaths would probably be down to about 35,000/year or about 100/day, a true flu-like comparison.

Coronavirus: 2022 ends with looming risk of a new variant, public health experts warn - As the world enters a new year, many public health and infectious disease experts predict that monitoring for new coronavirus variants will be an increasingly important part of Covid-19 mitigation efforts – and some are turning their attention to a surge in cases in China. Subvariants of the Omicron coronavirus variant continue to circulate globally, and “we’re seeing Omicron do what viruses do, which is it picks up mutations along the way that helps it evade a little bit of immunity that’s induced by previous infection or vaccination,” said Andrew Pekosz, a microbiologist and immunologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore.“We haven’t seen any major jumps in terms of Omicron evolution in some time,” he said. But “it’s getting to that stage where it’s something that we have to continue to monitor.”In the United States, the Omicron subvariants XBB.1.5, BQ.1.1, BQ.1, BA.5 and XBB are causing almost all Covid-19 infections, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.For this week, the CDC estimates that XBB.1.5 now causes 40.5% of cases in the US, followed by BQ.1.1 at 26.9%; BQ.1 at 18.3%; BA.5 at 3.7%; and XBB at 3.6%.“SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is constantly changing and accumulating mutations in its genetic code over time. New variants of SARS-CoV-2 are expected to continue to emerge,” CDC researchers write in their data tracker. “Some variants will emerge and disappear, while others will emerge and continue to spread and may replace previous variants.”Omicron’s offshoots appear to dominate globally as well, but as the coronavirus continues to spread – especially in China after Beijing’s rapid easing of restrictions – there is now concern about where Covid-19 trends could be heading in 2023 and the risk of new variants emerging.

Long COVID, mental disorders among diseases to watch in 2023: --The last three years of the pandemic brought health into focus in global policymaking and made everyone more wary about fitness and hygiene. As the world prepares to ring in the new year, there is a wave of apprehension about a fresh COVID surge, with scary projections for China splashed across news portals. The coronavirus infection has also given birth to sequelae conditions (Long COVID) and aggravated some existing ailments (mental health disorders). They are widespread and not understood very well. These along with intersectional health risks caused by a combination of environmental (climate change, pollution) and societal (wars, poverty) factors, are some of the most prominent diseases to watch for in 2023, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global research organisation with the University of Washington, observed in a note December 20, 2022. IHME brought out a list of ailments that may turn out to be the biggest health challenges in several countries and, thus, should be monitored closely: 1. Long COVID: Some patients have felt the impact of coronavirus infection till weeks after they tested negative. COVID-19 impacted the various organs of the human body in different ways and these sequelae conditions are so widespread that they were referred to as the ‘silent pandemic’ by the health fraternity. Headache, memory loss, confusion, chest ailment and lingering cough are just some of the symptoms reported by patients with Long COVID. The impact of these conditions “often disrupts a person’s ability to engage with school, work or relationships for months at a time”, IHME experts observed in the note. Sarah Wulf Hanson, lead research scientist of the non-fatal and risk quality enhancement team and lead author of the JAMA paper on long COVID, said: People with long COVID need diagnostic and proper rehabilitation support from primary care physicians. We desperately need more research to find effective treatments as well as preventive measures to reduce the risk of developing long COVID.”

Impact of COVID-19 Vaccine on Long COVID in Patients with Rheumatic Diseases -  It has been well demonstrated that patients with systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases (SARDs) are at higher risk of severe outcomes during acute COVID-19 infection, but the implications of other long-term complications of COVID-19 have been less elucidated. PASC, or post-acute sequelae of COVID-19, refers to persistent or new-onset symptoms following acute infection, often popularly called “Long COVID.” Because patients with SARDs are often at increased risk for severe, acute COVID-19 infection and may have impaired immune responses, a recent study sought to investigate the association of COVID-19 vaccination with risk of PASC in patients with SARDs [1]. The researchers from Mass General Brigham (MGB) performed a prospective, longitudinal study inviting patients to participate. The primary outcome was PASC (“long COVID”), defined as any persistent symptom at least 28 days post-COVID-19 infection (per US CDC definition) and a secondary outcome of persistent symptom at least 90 days post-COVID-19 infection (per the WHO definition). The exposure of interest was being fully vaccinated at COVID-19 onset versus partially vaccinated or unvaccinated status. Restricted mean survival time was used to assess differences in symptom-free time between those with breakthrough versus without breakthrough infection. Non-breakthrough COVID-19 infection was defined as being unvaccinated or partially vaccinated at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to calculate the odds of PASC at 28 and 90 days, again comparing those with breakthrough versus without breakthrough infection. Adult patients greater than or equal to 18 years of age with an immune-mediated disease diagnosis and a positive test for COVID-19 by PCR or antigen nasopharyngeal swab were recruited between March 2020 and July 2022. Researchers evaluated 280 patients in the study, with mean age 53 years, 80% female and 82% white race; a total of 41% were fully vaccinated, 28% partially vaccinated, and 11% unvaccinated. The most common rheumatic autoimmune diseases were inflammatory arthritis (59%) followed by connective tissue disease (24%) and vasculitis (9%). Researchers asked about COVID-19 symptoms and duration, any treatments prescribed, hospitalization, vaccination status, and time to COVID-19 symptom resolution. COVID-19 symptoms assessed included fever, sore throat, cough, nasal congestion, dyspnea, chest pain, rash, myalgia, fatigue, headache, nausea/vomiting, diarrhea, anosmia, dysgeusia, and joint pain. Fully vaccinated patients were half as likely to have long COVID (PASC) symptoms at 28 days (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.49) and 90% less likely to have long COVID 3 months after infection (aOR 0.10), after adjusting for comorbidities and use of four immune-suppressing medications (anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies, methotrexate, mycophenolate or glucocorticoids). With regards to PASC by breakthrough infection status, those fully vaccinated (breakthrough infections) had significantly shorter symptom duration with an average of 21 additional days without symptoms in follow-up (p = 0.04) compared to those who were unvaccinated. Additionally, patient-reported pain and fatigue scores were lower in the vaccinated group compared to the unvaccinated. One interesting observation was the severity of PASC, as measured by the patient-reported measures for fatigue, pain, disability and health-related quality of life, was similar whether breakthrough or non-breakthrough infection.

Loss of Smell as Long COVID Symptom Traced to Inflammation --New research suggests that the presence of ongoing inflammation that damages and destroys cells in the nose may be the reason that some people fail to recover their sense of smell after COVID-19. The study, a collaboration between researchers at Duke, Harvard, and the University of California in San Diego, adds an important insight into a problem that has affected millions of people who have not fully recovered their sense of smell after COVID-19. The findings were published online December 21, 2022, in the journal Science Translational Medicine.  One symptom long associated with COVID-19 infection is loss of smell, says the senior author of the study, Bradley Goldstein, MD, PhD, associate professor in head and neck surgery and communication sciences and neurobiology at the Duke University School of Medicine in Durham, North Carolina.An estimated 15 million COVID-19 survivors around the world have loss of smell that’s continued even after they’ve recovered from the virus, according to a study published in July 2022 in The BMJ.  By using a biopsy-based approach (taking a small sample of tissue) in the olfactory area of the nose, researchers were able to closely examine the cells of people who have long COVID smell loss versus people who have normal sense of smell, says Goldstein.Investigators analyzed the olfactory epithelial (the layer of tissue in the nose where smell nerve cells are located) from 24 biopsies, including those from nine patients experiencing long-term smell loss following COVID-19. The scientists found widespread evidence of T-cells (a type of white blood cell that is an important part of the immune system) as well as inflammation. “We wouldn’t normally expect to see this type of inflammation; it’s almost resembling a sort of autoimmune-like process in the nose,” Goldstein says. The people who didn’t have long-term smell loss due to COVID-19 had no evidence of the unique inflammation.

COVID long haulers: New lung-scanning technology helps diagnose, treat those with lingering symptoms - ABC7 Los Angeles- An estimated 100 million Americans have had COVID-19. For most, especially those who have been vaccinated, the illness means a few days of aches, pains and fatigue. But for some, the symptoms just don't go away. They are called COVID long haulers. And now a new scanning technology is helping doctors diagnose and treat those with long COVID. Amy Dutrisac is one of those COVID long haulers who benefited from the new technology. She and her family all came down with COVID. But her daughter and husband started to feel better within a few days. Not Amy. "I had no energy," she says. "My lungs were aching, I had a horrible cough. It was scary." Amy was one of the first to undergo a new FDA-cleared four-dimensional scan of her lungs. It's called four-dimensional because it adds the element of time, showing how the lungs move as the patient breathes. It also provides a range of other advanced diagnostic data. "It actually can measure air coming from your upper lung on the right, lower lung on the right, upper and left lower lung," said Dr. Ray Casciari, a pulmonary specialist with Providence St. Joseph Hospital in Orange. The XV technology uses fluoroscopy, which is available in most hospitals, but the new software algorithms convert the scans, allowing doctors to see defects caused by long COVID. With diagnostic help from the advanced scans, Dutrisac has undergone successful treatments. She's now breathing easy and free from all of her symptoms. "I honestly don't know what would've happened to me if I hadn't had the scan," she said. Because there's very little radiation and the cost is relatively low - about $500 per scan - the scan can be repeated several times. Patients who are not treated successfully for long COVID could see a lifetime of respiratory problems and even the development of conditions like adult onset asthma.

Long COVID: Could mono virus or fat cells be playing roles? - Nearly three years into the pandemic, scientists are still trying to figure out why some people get long COVID and why a small portion — including the three women — have lasting symptoms. Millions of people worldwide have had long COVID, reporting various symptoms including fatigue, lung problems, and brain fog and other neurological symptoms. Evidence suggests most recover substantially within a year, but recent data show that it has contributed to more than 3,500 U.S. deaths.Many studies and anecdotal evidence suggest that women are more likely than men to develop long COVID. There could be biological reasons. Women’s immune systems generally mount stronger reactions to viruses, bacteria, parasites and other germs, noted Sabra Klein, a Johns Hopkins professor who studies immunity. Women are also much more likely than men to have autoimmune diseases, where the body mistakenly attacks its own healthy cells. Some scientists believe long COVID could result from an autoimmune response triggered by the virus. Women’s bodies also tend to have more fat tissue and emerging research suggests the coronavirus may hide in fat after infection. Scientists also are studying whether women’s fluctuating hormone levels may increase the risks. Another possible factor: Women are more likely than men to seek health care and often more attuned to changes in their bodies, Klein noted. “I don’t think we should ignore that,” she said. Biology and behavior are probably both at play, Klein said.

Covid outbreak: Heartbreaking video of long lines at crematoriums in China --  Covid continues to wreak havoc in China with a record number of daily cases, deaths, and hospitalisations. Reports say that hospitals have run out of beds, oxygen and ICUs have filled up. People are also lining up outside crematoriums as all of them are running at full capacity and have waiting periods of several hours.  Today, one such heart-wrenching video surfaced where people can be seen lining up with bodies wrapped in bags outside crematoriums. The video was shared by one epidemiologist and health economist Eric Feigl-Ding, who has been constantly sharing reports and anecdotal Covid figures from China. Sharing the video on Twitter, Eric said: "Long lines at crematoriums...imagine having to not just wait for hours to cremate your loved ones, but have to do it carrying their deceased bodies for all those hours...let’s have empathy for the horrific #COVID19 wave crashing into China." The epidemiologist on Sunday claimed that frustrated staffers in Beijing state media are now venting that they can't run certain TV shows because over half of staff are home sick with Covid. US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has projected about 323,000 total Covid deaths in China by 1 April. Ali Mokdad, professor at IHME, said without social distancing the death toll could exceed 500,000 by 1 April 2023. "Our long-range models predict over 1 million COVID-19 deaths in 2023 in the country," he said. Last week, CNN's Selina Wang visited a crematorium in Beijing and found that it was running full and the people had to wait outside for hours for their turn. At the crematorium, long lines of cars were waiting to get into the cremation area. While reports suggest a grim situation in the country, China has stopped releasing daily Covid numbers. On Saturday, the country reported less than 5,000 cases and no deaths.

 China estimates 250mn people have caught Covid in 20 days - Chinese officials estimate about 250mn people, or 18 per cent of the population, were infected with Covid-19 in the first 20 days of December, as Beijing abruptly dismantled restrictions that had contained the disease for almost three years. The estimates — including 37mn people, or 2.6 per cent of the population, who were infected on Tuesday alone — were revealed by Sun Yang, a deputy director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in a Wednesday health briefing, said two people familiar with the matter. Sun said the rate of Covid’s spread in the country was still rising and estimated that more than half of the population in Beijing and Sichuan were already infected, the people briefed on the meeting said. The explosion in cases followed Beijing’s decision this month to abandon its zero-Covid policy, which kept the virus at bay through mass testing, mandatory quarantine and draconian lockdowns. Sun’s figures, which were provided in a closed-door meeting, contrast with data put out by the National Health Commission, which reported 62,592 symptomatic Covid cases over the same period. Last week, China stopped trying to tally the total number of infections after authorities curtailed Covid testing. The lack of published official information has led Washington and the World Health Organization to push Beijing to be more transparent about case counts, disease severity, hospital admission figures and other health statistics that have been made widely available by other countries. In China’s capital and other cities, the wave of Covid infections has overwhelmed hospitals with an influx of elderly, bedridden patients and left emergency rooms and intensive care units with few available beds. Yet the country has proceeded with shedding the zero-Covid policy as the medical toll mounts. On Saturday, Hong Kong’s chief executive John Lee announced that long-awaited quarantine-free travel between the city and mainland China would resume as early as mid-January. Cross-border travel has been tightly controlled since early 2020, stifling the financial hub’s economy. “The central government has agreed to fully reopen the borders in a gradual and orderly manner,” Lee told reporters after returning from a four-day trip to Beijing, where he met President Xi Jinping. The NHC’s official account of the Wednesday event provided little detail on what the country’s top health officials discussed. But in the meeting, Ma Xiaowei, director of the NHC, demanded hospitals sort out overflowing emergency rooms and move patients into inpatient departments, said one of the people who participated in the event. He also urged midsized and large hospitals to take in more patients with severe symptoms and promised regulators would not hold them accountable for rising fatality rates. Meanwhile, the estimate of 250mn cases raised further doubts about the accuracy of official Covid statistics and how authorities account for deaths from the disease. The NHC reported just 4,103 new local cases on Saturday for the day prior, with no Covid-related deaths for a second consecutive day. Hong Kong, by contrast, reported 20,460 new local cases on Saturday for the previous 24 hours. Recommended Coronavirus pandemic ‘We have no beds, we have no oxygen’: Covid overwhelms Beijing’s hospitals China has officially reported only eight deaths since December 1. Top health officials said this week that they had narrowed the definition of what constitutes a Covid death, in a move that reduced the public death tally. However, crematoriums in China’s capital are struggling to handle a surge of corpses, and bodies were piling up at hospitals visited by the Financial Times in recent days. Several models, including one partly funded by the Chinese CDC, have forecast that the country could suffer up to 1mn Covid deaths during its reopening. The NHC on Sunday said it would no longer publish daily case tallies, and the CDC would take over providing “relevant epidemic information”. It did not specify how frequently the CDC would release data. The NHC did not respond to a request for comment.

After years with little covid, videos show China is now getting hit hard -  Emergency departments are overflowing, with patients sleeping in hallways until they can be evaluated or taken to a hospital room. In at least one hospital, half of doctors and nurses were absent because they had tested positive for covid. These and other alarming scenes in China’s medical facilities have been captured in videos and photographs posted to social media during the past two weeks. They offer a glimpse of the toll a huge coronavirus wave is wreaking — and undercut Beijing’s claim that the government is in control. The full extent of the outbreak is unclear. The government’s sudden easing of coronavirus restrictions in early December came as infections were already surging. Officials soon stopped reporting asymptomatic cases, leaving the public to rely on social media to understand what was happening. To better assess the impact of the current wave — which projections suggest could claim more than 1 million lives in 2023 — The Washington Post tracked hundreds of posts on popular Chinese platforms, including Weibo and Douyin, and reviewed material that was reposted on Twitter and other sites. The Post’s preliminary analysis found evidence of overwhelmed health-care facilities in major cities, particularly along the country’s heavily populated east coast. Given China’s strict censorship, the content is only a snapshot of what’s happening nationwide. But it shows that many communities are struggling to cope with the massive number of patients infected with covid. Videos like this one, taken at Tianjin Medical University Hospital and posted on Douyin — a Chinese video platform owned by TikTok parent company ByteDance — reveal the current strain on medical facilities. Patients, many of them elderly, are seen resting on gurneys or cots in crowded lobbies or near elevators and other public areas. Family members appear to hover nearby — proximity certain to help spread the virus. A video posted to social media on Dec. 20 — described as taken a day prior — shows visibly sick patients crowded in Tianjin Medical University General Hospital. (Video: @用户/Douyin) “It’s clear that [in] those major cities, the health-care system is overwhelmed because of the rapid increase of the cases, especially [among] the elderly,” said Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, who reviewed the footage for The Post. Only about 40 percent of people ages 80 and older in China have received a coronavirus booster shot. This viral tsunami hit northern cities fastest and hardest. Beijing’s health authorities said on Dec. 11 that 22,000 people daily were visiting fever clinics, 16 times more than the previous week. A video posted to Douyin on Wednesday shows many elderly patients seeking care at Beijing Tsinghua Changgung Hospital. “The emergency room is extremely crowded,” wrote a woman who said she had brought her mother for care a day earlier. “Wherever I went, wherever I looked, there were younger senior citizens accompanying those even older,” the woman noted. “Everyone must please take care of the elderly around you.” A video posted to social media on Dec. 21 shows crowded conditions at Tsinghua Changgung Hospital in Beijing. (Video: @Mrs树树/Douyin) The country’s most populous city is suffering a similar outbreak. On Wednesday, Shanghai Neuromedical Center posted — then quickly deleted — a WeChat article estimating that 7 million residents were already infected and that half of the city’s 25 million people would be infected by the end of this week.

What online-search data say about China’s latest covid wave   - No one outside China knows how many people in the country have contracted covid-19 or died from it in recent weeks. The Chinese government, which recently abandoned the “zero-covid” strategy of strict lockdowns and isolation requirements that it had maintained since the start of the pandemic, is probably modelling the outbreak, but not sharing its estimates. Since December 1st it has reported an official death toll from the disease of just nine people. On December 25th the National Health Commission announced that it would stop publishing daily case counts (though the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention will continue to publish some information about the outbreak). Morgues and crematoriums are reportedly struggling to keep up with a surge in corpses. Some reports have put the number of infections this month in the hundreds of millions (out of a population of 1.4bn).Given such uncertainty, external observers seeking to estimate the magnitude of the current outbreak in China must rely on rough proxy measures. One such source of data is internet search engines, which people can use to look up disease symptoms and treatments. Although people frequently search for information about stories occurring outside their countries’ borders, specific terms indicating that someone may be directly affected can prove surprisingly informative about local conditions. For example, in America, an outstanding predictor of case counts early in the pandemic was Google searches for the loss of taste or smell. Once covid tests became widely available in America, day-to-day changes in the number of such searches moved nearly in lockstep with changes in the reported case count eight or nine days later.  Since covid first emerged in China in late 2019, the government has probably undercounted the human toll. It reported 4,684 deaths attributable to the disease between January 20th and April 20th 2020, and has logged just 558 since then. Although this figure is most likely to be too low, the magnitude of the underestimation is shrouded in uncertainty. The official statistics do not provide any way to determine if China is truly experiencing an outbreak of unprecedented scale. However, data from Baidu, China’s leading search engine, strongly suggest that the country’s current covid surge dwarfs any previous uptick. In mid-December the maximum daily frequencies of searches for “antigen”, a term typically included in searches for rapid covid tests, and “antipyretic”, the family of fever-reducing drugs that includes aspirin, ibuprofen and paracetamol, were 60 and 37 times the average levels in September and October, and 14 and 13 times their previous record highs. Baidu also recorded remarkably steep increases in interest in “fever” and “blood oxygen”, which increased by factors of 32 and 19 relative to the average during September and October, and eight relative to the prior record. Another term that showed rapid growth was “lianhua qingwen”, a mix of herbs that is often used in traditional Chinese medicine to treat influenza. Searches for it rose 40-fold when compared with the September-October average, and five times when contrasted with the maximum during the first wave of the pandemic in early 2020.

WHO urges China to share specific data regularly on COVID situation | (Reuters) - The World Health Organization on Friday once again urged China's health officials to regularly share specific and real-time information on the COVID-19 situation in the country, as it continues to assess the latest surge in infections.The agency has asked Chinese officials to share more genetic sequencing data, as well as data on hospitalizations, deaths and vaccinations. Official figures from China have become an unreliable guide as less testing is being done across the country following the recent easing of the strict "zero-COVID" policy. WHO has previously said that China may be struggling to keep a tally of COVID-19 infections. The agency has invited Chinese scientists to present detailed data on viral sequencing at its meeting of a technical advisory group scheduled for Jan. 3. COVID infections have risen across China this month after Beijing dismantled its zero-COVID policies including regular PCR testing on its population. The United States, South Korea, India, Italy, Japan and Taiwan have all imposed COVID tests for travellers from China in response.  The United States has also attributed the recent change in its policy to the lack of information on COVID variants and concerns that the increased cases in China could result in the development of new variants of the virus. Senior Chinese health officials exchanged views with the WHO on the new coronavirus via a video conference, China's National Health Commission said in a statement earlier on Friday.

China Approves Merck's Covid-19 Drug For Emergency Use  -- Chinese drug regulator has approved Merck & Co's Covid-19 antiviral molnupiravir for emergency use amid shortage of drugs following significant increase in Covid-19 cases, reports said. China's National Medical Products Administration or NMPA granted conditional emergency approval for the drug, known by the brand name Lagevrio, to treat mild and moderate infections in adults at risk of progressing to severe disease. The approval follows a deal in September by Merck with Chinese state-owned firm Sinopharm to import and market molnupiravir in China. Molnupiravir is the second Covid-19 treatment from outside China cleared for use in the country following approval for Pfizer Inc's Paxlovid in early 2022. China is facing waves of covid infections after the country abruptly reversed its stringent Covid-19 restrictions earlier in December.

China's COVID-19 surge raises odds of new coronavirus variants - ---Could the COVID-19 surge in China unleash a new coronavirus mutant on the world? Scientists don't know but worry that might happen. It could be similar to Omicron variants circulating there now. It could be a combination of strains. Or something entirely different, they say. "China has a population that is very large and there's limited immunity. And that seems to be the setting in which we may see an explosion of a new variant," said Dr. Stuart Campbell Ray, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University. Every new infection offers a chance for the coronavirus to mutate, and the virus is spreading rapidly in China. The country of 1.4 billion has largely abandoned its "zero COVID" policy. Though overall reported vaccination rates are high, booster levels are lower, especially among older people. Domestic vaccines have proven less effective against serious infection than Western-made messenger RNA versions. Many were given more than a year ago, meaning immunity has waned. The result? Fertile ground for the virus to change. "When we've seen big waves of infection, it's often followed by new variants being generated," Ray said. About three years ago, the original version of the coronavirus spread from China to the rest of the world and was eventually replaced by the Delta variant, then Omicron and its descendants, which continue plaguing the world today. Dr. Shan-Lu Liu, who studies viruses at Ohio State University, said many existing Omicron variants have been detected in China, including BF.7, which is extremely adept at evading immunity and is believed to be driving the current surge. Experts said a partially immune population like China's puts particular pressure on the virus to change. Ray compared the virus to a boxer that "learns to evade the skills that you have and adapt to get around those." One big unknown is whether a new variant will cause more severe disease. Experts say there's no inherent biological reason the virus has to become milder over time. "Much of the mildness we've experienced over the past six to 12 months in many parts of the world has been due to accumulated immunity either through vaccination or infection, not because the virus has changed" in severity, Ray said. In China, most people have never been exposed to the coronavirus. China's vaccines rely on an older technology producing fewer antibodies than messenger RNA vaccines. Given those realities, Dr. Gagandeep Kang, who studies viruses at the Christian Medical College in Vellore, India, said it remains to be seen if the virus will follow the same pattern of evolution in China as it has in the rest of the world after vaccines came out. "Or," she asked, "will the pattern of evolution be completely different?" Recently, the World Health Organization expressed concern about reports of severe disease in China. Around the cities of Baoding and Langfang outside Beijing, hospitals have run out of intensive care beds and staff as severe cases surge. China's plan to track the virus centers around three city hospitals in each province, where samples will be collected from walk-in patients who are very sick and all those who die every week, Xu Wenbo of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention said at a briefing Tuesday. He said 50 of the 130 Omicron versions detected in China had resulted in outbreaks. The country is creating a national genetic database "to monitor in real time" how different strains were evolving and the potential implications for public health, he said.

China’s lifting of Zero-COVID and the ongoing dangers of the pandemic - As the year 2022 draws to a close, a dangerous new stage of the COVID-19 pandemic has opened with the universal lifting of all measures that slow the spread of the coronavirus. Throughout the world, governments have decided to allow COVID-19 to spread entirely unchecked, infecting or reinfecting billions of people. This policy allows the virus to mutate and produce new and potentially more dangerous variants. The global epicenter of the pandemic is now China, where the ruling Communist Party (CCP) has dismantled its Zero-COVID policy, which had kept China’s per capita infection and death rates the lowest of any major country. Since November 11, the CCP has ended lockdowns, mass testing, contact tracing, quarantine and isolation protocols and every other public health measure. On Monday, China’s National Health Commission (NHC) reclassified COVID-19 from a Class A to a Class B infectious disease starting on January 8, prompting the scrapping of all quarantine requirements for inbound travelers. This followed Sunday’s NHC announcement that it will no longer report COVID-19 infections, after last week adjusting its definition of a COVID-19 death in a transparent effort to suppress all data on the spread of the pandemic. The reversal of Zero-COVID in China has produced a wave of mass infection. A leaked report by Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Deputy Director Sun Yang estimated that 248 million people were infected with COVID-19 across China during the first 20 days of December. The majority of China’s 1.4 billion people are expected to be infected over the next two months amid the Lunar New Year travel season. Hospitals in Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities are collapsing under a massive influx of patients, morgues are suspending burial services, and hundreds, if not thousands, of people are believed to be dying at home every day. Social media posts by people suffering from Long COVID describe prolonged symptoms, including extreme fatigue, deep coughs, shortness of breath, difficulties concentrating and more. Breaking his month-long silence on the disastrous spread of COVID throughout China, President Xi Jinping employed Orwellian double-speak at a press conference Monday, stating, “We should launch the patriotic health campaign in a more targeted way... fortify a community line of defense for epidemic prevention and control, and effectively protect people’s lives, safety and health.” In justifying the abandonment of Zero-COVID, CCP officials and the Chinese state media have repackaged all the lies and propaganda developed over the past year throughout the rest of the world, particularly in the United States. Referring to the Omicron variant as “mild,” they falsely claim that the current surge of infections will be their “COVID exit wave.” In the words of Zhong Nanshan, a doctor and spokesperson for the CCP’s COVID policy, China will return to “pre-epidemic conditions” by mid-2023.

Half of Passengers on Two Flights From China Test Covid Positive in Milan – Italian health authorities will begin testing all arrivals from China for Covid after almost half of the passengers on two flights to Milan were found to have the virus.  They are also sequencing the Milan tests to see if there are new variants, the Health Ministry said in a statement. If a new strain is found, officials may impose stricter curbs ..

Italy finds no new COVID variants among Chinese visitors so far – — There is no sign of new COVID-19 variants so far among passengers arriving in Italy from China in recent days, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said, as she called for a new, EU-wide testing regime to guard against the threat from a resurgent coronavirus.On Wednesday, Italy became the first European country to introduce mandatory virus testing for people arriving from China. Beijing's decision to lift lockdown policies earlier this month triggered a surge in cases, spurring concerns around the world that a dangerous new variant could emerge.  At a press conference in Rome on Thursday, Meloni said genomic sequencing of positive cases arriving in Milan’s airports since last week had shown only the Omicron variant.  Meloni said that authorities in Lombardy had been sequencing the virus, “because we need to know if what is arriving is something we have already seen, and so covered by vaccines or not … Of 30 cases we are sequencing, the first 15 are all Omicron, which is already present in Italy,” she said. “So, for right now, it's quite reassuring."Meloni said the government had asked the EU for a bloc-wide response on mandatory testing, otherwise, she feared Italy’s testing policy risked being ineffective. “On China, we have taken immediate action," she said. "But this measure may not be completely effective unless it is taken by the whole EU, because we can do it for direct flights but not those with a transit."Meloni said the government had written to the EU commissioner for health and was “hoping" and "waiting" to hear if the EU would agree to Italy's request. On Thursday, EU health officials met to review the situation and resolved to continue working toward a bloc-wide response, but stopped short of setting out any details on new action.Italian Health Minister Orazio Schillaci said the low use and efficacy of vaccines had helped create ideal conditions for a new wave of infections in China. "There are few vaccinations in China, a poor level of protection of the vaccines used, and few doses ... Omicron until recently circulated little with low hybrid immunity," he told a Senate briefing in Rome. "Then this autumn came the perfect storm."

COVID hospitalisations up almost 30 percent in Britain - COVID cases are rising sharply, with hundreds of deaths still reported weekly. Latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures published this week but based on the situation nearly three weeks ago in the seven days to December 9, estimate 1.4 million people in private UK households testing positive for the virus. This is up from 1.1 million infections a week previous.Sarah Crofts, ONS deputy director for infection survey analysis, said, “Today’s data show that Covid-19 infections have risen for the fourth consecutive week in England, with cases also continuing to rise in Scotland.“Over half of English regions saw an increase, while it’s a mixed picture for different ages. Infections have increased among most adults under 70, while secondary school-age children experienced a decrease in infections.”The highest level of infection was in Scotland with around one in 40 people (130,900) estimated to be testing positive, a rise from the one in 60 at the end of November. In England, 1.2 million people were estimated to have COVID, one in 45 people and up from one in 60 at the end of November.The ZOE COVID Study app, the world’s largest ongoing study of COVID, with more up-to-date figures, reported over 3.3 million current infections in Britain on December 26. ZOE app users also recorded 265,000 new infections on the same day. The study had its funding removed by the Conservative government months ago. COVID cases are rising more than 17 months since the pandemic was declared over by then Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Everyone was told to “learn to live with the virus” by the government, and even more grotesquely to “live well with COVID” by the Labour Party opposition.Since that date nearly 60,000 more people have died from the disease. According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University and available on Our World in Data, total deaths in Britain from COVID stand at 213,249. The government’s own tally of fatalities, measured as someone dying within 28 days of a positive COVID test, will soon pass 200,000 (currently 198,937).The ONS data was released before the start of the Christmas holiday season, when millions met with their families throughout Britain and vast numbers of shoppers gathered in city centres and indoor shopping venues for the winter sales. Such gatherings are proven super-spreader events. Yet more infections will be recorded as the New Year festivities take place.

Japan marks record 415 COVID-19 deaths -health ministry  -   (Reuters) - Japan on Wednesday recorded 415 COVID-19 deaths, the highest-ever count for a single day, health ministry data showed.The country counted 216,219 newly confirmed coronavirus cases on Wednesday, up 4% from a week earlier, the data also showed, approaching the record high of some 260,000 a day in August. In the past seven days, Japan had the world's largest confirmed COVID-19 infections and the second-most deaths after the United States, according to a tally by the World Health Organization.

Toddler is city of Cleveland’s first pediatric flu-related death of season - cleveland.com - — A 19-month-old Cleveland girl is the city’s first confirmed influenza-associated pediatric death for the current flu season, city health officials said Friday.  The child was hospitalized at the time of her death, officials said.This is Cuyahoga County’s second pediatric flu-associated death of the season. A 13-year-old boy died in November. While the flu season started early and took off rapidly, there has been a recent drop in flu-related hospitalizations in Ohio and nationally, Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff said recently. However, the flu season is expected to have peaks and valleys for the next few weeks.In Ohio through Dec. 24, only one pediatric influenza-associated death has been reported during the 2022-2023 influenza season. The state only tracks pediatric flu-related deaths.During the unusually mild flu season of 2020-2021, only one pediatric flu death was recorded nationally, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But there were 195 during the 2019-2020 season, and 144 in the 2018-2019 season.Throughout Cuyahoga County, flu activity is high, according to health statistics.As of Dec. 17, the county had recorded two flu-related deaths this season, which includes the November pediatric death. And 756 people had been hospitalized for influenza-related illness.

As flu and RSV surge early in the season, how many children's hospital beds are free in your state? --  Almost three years into the pandemic, hospitals in the United States are currently fuller than they were for much of 2020, including during the earliest days of COVID-19, an NBC News analysis found. It's hard to imagine, but since late November and early December 2022, inpatient beds at U.S. hospitals have been about 80% full, according to data from the Department of Health and Human Services, which has been keeping records on this matter for over 980 days. The omicron wave in late 2020 and early 2021 had hospitals in the mid-70s in terms of percent of beds occupied, but that was the fullest period the U.S. had seen prior to Nov. 30, 2022.On Nov. 30, U.S. hospital beds were 80.5% full. Since then, the lowest that stat has dropped to was 77.4% on Dec. 5."When you think about some of the winter and spring omicron surges, where it was just going crazy and we had 100,000-plus cases, a million cases a day, we have higher hospitalizations now, which is mind boggling," Dr. Kavita Patel, NBC News medical contributor, said during a Dec. 12 segment on TODAY.This new wave of illness is being driven not just by COVID-19 but also influenza and respiratory syncytial virus.New daily COVID cases and deaths have ticked up about 50% and 12% respectively in the past two weeks, but no states are reporting that more than 8% of their hospitalizations are due to COVID-19. Flu hospitalizations rose 32% and new cases rose 64% from last week's report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Flu hospital admissions are the highest they've been in a decade.What's more, for the 2022-2023 flu season, the U.S. has already surpassed the total number of flu cases and deaths seen in the entire previous season.  “Flu is here. It started early, and with COVID and RSV also circulating, it’s a perfect storm for a terrible holiday season.” Meanwhile, RSV, which usually only sickens young children and older adults, is still causing illness across the country. While cases are dropping, they're still higher than they've been at any point since mid-December 2020, according to CDC data. And experts have told TODAY.com that RSV doesn't typically peak until January.

After COVID, flu and RSV, is a strep outbreak next? -  As the U.S. continues to see high levels of three viral infections – COVID-19, influenza, and RSV – there’s growing concern over a bacteria that can cause serious illness, especially in children. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it’s tracking a “possible increase in invasive group A strep” among children. At least 94 people in the United Kingdom, including 24 children, have died from complications caused by a strep A infection. “To my knowledge, we’ve never seen a peak like this at this time of year, at least not for decades,” microbiologist Shiranee Sriskandan at Imperial College London told Nature.  France, Ireland, the Netherlands and Sweden have also observed strep A increases over the past few months, the World Health Organization said. When asked if the U.S. was destined to follow the trend we’re seeing in Europe, Dr. Andrew Pekosz, a virologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said it was too soon to say if we’d see a “large strep A outbreak.” He warned that it could be a problem if we do see a rise in the bacterial infection at the same time we’re contending with a viral “tripledemic.” “Often times severe disease is caused when you have that combination of a virus infection and a bacterial infection,” Pekosz said. Secondary bacterial infections, like getting strep A while you’re fighting off the flu or COVID, can also cause more severe disease, Pekosz said.Strep A infections are particularly dangerous for children, the CDC says. While strep commonly looks and feels like a sore throat, it can sometimes lead to more serious illness like scarlet fever. In rare instances, strep A can also cause necrotizing fasciitis and streptococcal toxic shock syndrome, both of which are extremely dangerous and can lead to death.Getting strep now is especially dangerous, as the country is experiencing a shortage of amoxicillin, a liquid antibiotic commonly prescribed to help kids fight strep A. The CDC expects the shortage to “last several months.”

Flu activity still high but continued to decline before Christmas, CDC data shows | CNN— Seasonal flu activity remains high in the United States but continued to decline in most areas last week, leading up to Christmas, according to data published Friday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The numbers do not include flu activity from after the holiday. The CDC estimates that as of last week, there have been at least 20 million illnesses, 210,000 hospitalizations and 13,000 deaths from flu this season. lu activity remains high, but decreased for a second week in a row, according to CDC data.  Among visits to a health care provider last week, 6.1% were for respiratory illness.The cumulative hospitalization rate was more than four times higher than it has been at this point in the season in more than a decade.The number of hospital admissions for flu decreased nationally for the third week in a row. Nearly 19,000 patients were admitted to hospitals with influenza last week, down from a season high of more than 26,000 new admissions in the week after Thanksgiving. Among children, 14 deaths were reported last week for a total of 61 this season. “CDC continues to recommend that everyone ages 6 months and older get an annual flu vaccine as long as flu activity continues.”Respiratory virus activity remains “high” or “very high” in most states, and public health experts warn that activity may increase again following New Year’s Eve.  Among the states with the highest level of activity is New Mexico, where the US Department of Health and Human Services sent a team from the National Disaster Medical System to the University of New Mexico Children’s Hospital on Friday, “providing much needed support to an overwhelmed emergency department.”

Flu and RSV on the decline but Covid hospitalizations rise - Covid hospitalizations are rising in the United States, even as hospitalizations for respiratory syncytial virus and the flu continue to fall.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Friday that, while flu is still spreading at high levels, virus activity is falling in "most areas." For the week ending Dec. 24, around 18,800 people were hospitalized with flu, down from around 20,700 hospitalizations the week prior. RSV hospitalization rates have fallen significantly since their peak in mid-November of 5.1 hospitalizations per 100,000 people. For the week ending Dec. 24, the rate was 0.8 per 100,000.  As of Thursday, data from the Department of Health and Human Services showed that pediatric hospital beds nationwide — which include children hospitalized with Covid, RSV or flu, among other illnesses — were 66% full, down from 69% a week ago.Even so, infectious disease experts urge caution. The country just celebrated Thanksgiving and Christmas and will soon celebrate New Year’s, said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious diseases expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Tennessee.“We anticipate that flu at the very least is going to kick up after all this traveling and all of these holiday get-togethers,” he said.The dip in flu activity could also be the result of a reporting lag over the holidays, Schaffner added. So far this season, at least 20 million people in the U.S. have been infected with flu, according to the CDC. About 13,000 have died. Of the samples reported to the agency, about 83% are the H3N2 strain of influenza A. The remaining are H1N1, another influenza A strain. Both can cause severe illness. Covid, however, is bucking the trend. The seven-day average of daily Covid hospitalizations reached 42,140 on Friday, an increase of 4.2% from two weeks ago, according to an NBC News tally. The seven-day average of daily intensive care unit admissions has also risen to 5,125 per day, an increase of more than 9% from two weeks ago.  Still, the number of Covid hospitalizations aren't expected to reach the level they did last winter, when the original omicron variant, called BA.1, began to spread rapidly, said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious diseases physician at the University of Toronto.He said a combination of population immunity — from either prior infection, vaccination or both — and a string of new variants that appear to be less virulent have made the virus less of a threat this winter.

Flu continues to spread in England with number of hospital patients up 79% -- The NHS is facing an ongoing surge in flu cases, with the number of patients in hospital in England up nearly 80% in the past week. According to figures published on Friday, 3,746 people a day were hospitalised with flu in the seven days to 25 December, up from 2,088 a day in the week before, an increase of 79.4%. The sharp rise continues a worrying trend, with flu hospitalisations soaring sevenfold over the past month. At the same point in November, only 520 flu patients were being hospitalised each day. The wave of influenza infections coincides with a seasonal surge in Covid, confirming earlier fears that the NHS would face a “twindemic” this winter, ramping up pressure on an already struggling health service. The number of NHS staff off sick with Covid each day was up more than 47% on last month, the NHS figures show, rising from 5,448 to 8,029. Prof Sir Stephen Powis, the NHS national medical director, said: “Sadly, these latest flu numbers show our fears of a twindemic have been realised, with cases up sevenfold in just a month and the continued impact of Covid hitting staff hard, with related absences up almost 50% on the end of November.” After a two-year hiatus due to Covid restrictions, respiratory viruses have begun to recirculate in the population, in many cases bouncing back hard and causing rapid rises in illness. Of those people in hospital with flu last week, 267 were in critical-care beds. At the same time last year, 34 patients were in hospital with flu, and only two were in critical care. In the face of the winter surge, bed occupancy has reached more than 93%, up from 86% for the same period last year. The difficulty in discharging patients is still affecting hospital capacity, with 12,313 beds a day taken up by patients fit to be discharged. Powis said: “It is clear this is no time to be complacent and the risk of serious illness is very real, so with nearly 350,000 available vaccination appointments next week it is important that everyone eligible comes forward and gets their Covid and flu jabs at the earliest opportunity.”

Flu, Covid, RSV: why is Britain so very ill? - New Year’s Eve gatherings, drinks with the neighbours: with zero restrictions on mixing, and almost three years of catching up to do, it’s perhaps no surprise that many of us have been struck down with a mysterious lurgy that causes fever, sore throat, headache and other decidedly Covid-like symptoms – perhaps more than once. But if you are consistently testing negative for Covid on a lateral flow test, what else could it be? And are we really more vulnerable to getting sick this winter, or have we just forgotten what life was like before Covid restrictions stopped the usual merry-go-round of seasonal infections?December 2022 has been party season not only for humans but for influenza, metapneumovirus, RSV and all manner of other bugs that spread through snot, respiratory droplets, and sloppy kisses under the mistletoe.  Covid continues to circulate, with a 22% increase in hospital admissions recorded in England between 7 and 14 December. Dr Stephen Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds, said: “The difficulty is that we don’t have freely available PCR tests any more, and a lot of people who are vaccinated [against Covid] don’t necessarily show up on LFTs if they are infected.” Testing several times as your illness progresses may be the only way to rule out Covid – and even then you may never know for sure. But although Covid may be the first thing we think of when we feel seriously unwell, it is by no means the only bug capitalising on the heady pre-Christmas cocktail of social events.. Prof Kamila Hawthorne, the chair of the Royal College of GPs, said: “Figures from the college’s research and surveillance centre show that rates of influenza-like illnesses, respiratory conditions and the common cold have been rising – and we are currently seeing cases of strep, tonsillitis and upper respiratory infections above the seasonal average.”Flu continues to spread in England with number of hospital patients up 79%.    The biggest problem at the moment is flu. The number of patients in hospital with flu has risen 79% in the past week, according to new data. An average of 3,746 people with flu were in hospital across the seven days to 25 December, up from 2,088 the previous week, according to NHS England The winter of 2017-18 was a really bad flu season, with the highest number of excess winter deaths recorded in England and Wales in more than 40 years – although below-average temperatures may also have contributed.  Flu can be severe, even in younger, healthy people. “It can be like a bad cold, but it can also be drenching night sweats, really severe joint pains, and older people in particular are vulnerable to pneumonia,” Ho said.“Another dangerous thing is that flu, in particular, predisposes to secondary bacterial infections. A lot of the group A strep that is currently circulating in children is probably linked to preceding respiratory virus infections.” Indeed, the UK also experienced higher than usual numbers of scarlet fever and invasive strep A infections after the 2017-18 flu season.

Strep A: Parents warned to look out for these symptoms as scarlet fever cases rise | The IndependentHealth officials are urging parents to look out for symptoms of scarlet fever in their children following a surge in cases driven by a recent increase in Strep A infections. At least 16 children have died with an invasive form of the bacteria in recent weeks, while cases of scarlet fever, which is caused by Strep A infection, have skyrocketed. The illness is caused by a species of bacteria called Group A Streptococcus. These bacteria also cause other respiratory and skin infections, such as Strep throat and impetigo. On rare occasions, the bacteria can get into the bloodstream and cause an illness called invasive Group A Strep (iGAS). While still uncommon, there has been an increase in invasive Strep A cases this year, particularly in children under 10. While scarlet fever is usually a mild illness, it is highly infectious. The UKHSA has confirmed an increase in invasive Group A Strep cases this year, particularly in children under 10, which it says is likely to have been caused by a high level of circulating bacteria combined with social mixing. The data shows a rate of 2.3 cases per 100,000 children aged between one and four, compared with an average of 0.5 cases in the three seasons prior to the pandemic (2017 to 2019), and 1.1 cases per 100,000 children aged five to nine, compared with a pre-pandemic average of 0.3. So far this season there have been five recorded deaths within seven days of a diagnosis in children under 10 in England. There has been a further death in Wales in that age group. Health officials say that the symptoms to look out for in your child include a sore throat, headache and fever, along with a fine, pinkish or red body rash with a sandpapery feel. On darker skin, the rash can be more difficult to detect visually but will still have a sandpapery feel. The UKHSA advises contacting NHS 111 or your GP if you suspect your child has scarlet fever, because early treatment of the illness with antibiotics is important in reducing the risk of complications such as pneumonia or a bloodstream infection. If your child has scarlet fever, keep them at home until at least 24 hours after the start of antibiotic treatment to avoid spreading the infection to others.

Two children under 10 die with Strep A in Scotland - Two children aged under 10 in Scotland have died with Strep A infection since October 3, Public Health Scotland has said. The agency said it is aware of seven deaths among invasive group A streptococcal infections (iGAS) cases between October 3 and December 25. Two of the deaths were in children under 10. Infections caused by Group A Streptococcus (GAS) include the skin infection impetigo, scarlet fever and strep throat. While the vast majority of infections are relatively mild, sometimes the bacteria cause iGAS, a life-threatening infection in which the bacteria has invaded parts of the body such as the blood, deep muscle or lungs. Scotland’s Health Secretary Humza Yousaf tweeted: “Every death is a tragedy, particularly those of young children, my thoughts with families & loved ones affected.” He added: “Thankfully most cases of Strep A present as mild illness & can be treated with antibiotics. Working with UK Govt to ensure adequate supplies. “Where localised shortages of first line treatments occur there are alternative & effective antibiotics available.”

Strep A: At least 30 children killed by bacterial infection in UK since September -  At least 30 children have died in the UK from invasive strep A since 19 September, new figures reveal. The UKHSA, in its weekly update on the bacterial infection, said there have been 33,836 notifications of scarlet fever in the last four months while a total of 122 people across all age groups have died of the condition in the same time period. Around 25 under-18s have died in England from iGAS - the invasive Strep A - so far this season, dating between 19 September and 25 December, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said. And the deaths of three children from iGAS in Belfast and Wales have also been recorded by the UKHSA, bringing the total number to 30. For comparison, in the entire 2017 to 2018 season, there were 355 deaths in total, including 27 deaths in children under 18. The UKHSA said the data shows an “out-of-season increase” in Strep A and scarlet fever infections and a higher number of cases of both diseases than seen in a typical year. Two weeks ago, a funeral was held in Belfast for a five-year-old girl who died of Strep A. Mourners wore rainbow-coloured ties and balloons were released into the sky as they said farewell to five- year-old Stella-Lily McCorkindale.

Cholera Returns With a Vengeance — Climate change, conflicts, and depleted stocks of vaccine compound mounting concerns. -- It has been a bad year for cholera, the fecally transmitted scourge once depicted as a supernatural reaper wielding a giant scythe. When the artwork above, "Le Choléra," first appeared in 1912, cholera's pathophysiology was still a mystery, but its clinical wrath wasn't. By then, it was public knowledge that cholera could sometimes transform a previously healthy human into a withered, gray corpse in a matter of hours.  Then came further scientific insights about cholera's comma-shaped, toxin-bearing bacillus that forms "micro-colonies" in human intestinal crypts, where Vibrio cholerae ultimately delivers its two-fisted punch: one set of subunit toxins attaching to GM1 gangliosides on the epithelial surface of small bowel cells, which, in turn, enables a second subunit toxin to reprogram those cells to secrete sodium and water. This molecular assault unleashes cholera's sometimes-massive flux that far outweighs the loss of fluid and electrolytes triggered by any other gastrointestinal pathogen. One silver lining? The ability to resuscitate cholera sufferers with oral rehydration salts mixed in clean water or, in more severe cases, with IV infusions. And, starting in 2013, the World Health Organization's (WHO) stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) has been one more boon for the global poor who might otherwise suffer cholera. Yet, in 2022, cholera has resurged to such a degree that it is now striking fear, given that there are woefully scant tools and infrastructure to contain it in many of its traditional strongholds. Today, experts believe, cholera still threatens more than a billion people in 69 countries, annually infecting 1.3 to 4 million and killing up to 143,000.    In 2022, such outbreaks occurred in 29 countries as compared to 23 in 2021 or the previous average of 20 country outbreaks per annum over the last 5 years. In addition, according to the WHO, 2022's global case-fatality rate climbed to 1.9% (2.9% in Africa). Root causes and contributing factors include a lack of investment in water and sanitation combined with conflict and complex humanitarian crises; climate change (cyclones in Mozambique and Malawi, for example, or flooding in Pakistan and drought in the Horn of Africa); fragile health systems and personnel stretched thin by other diseases; and a looming shortage of OCV.

First ever case of deadly brain-eating amoeba reported by South Korea — The first ever case of Naegleria fowleri, often referred to as a ‘brain-eating amoeba’, has been recorded in South Korea, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) said on Monday. The single-celled organism caused the death of a Korean male in his 50s last week, the agency said. The victim returned to South Korea on December 10 after spending four months in Thailand. He was hospitalized the next day, but could not be saved, according to the authorities. Doctors carried out tests which confirmed that the gene discovered in the man’s system was 99.6% similar to that found in primary amebic meningoencephalitis (PAM) patients in other countries. PAM is a severe infection caused by Naegleria fowleri, an amoeba that resides in soil and fresh water around the globe and feeds on bacteria. It enters the human body by inhalation through the nose and then makes its way into the brain.  The symptoms of the infection include headache, fever, nausea or vomiting, stiff neck, seizures, and altered mental state, and as PAM progresses, it often leads to coma and death. The fatality rate from the disease is extremely high and there is no specific cure for it. It is also hard to diagnose, as it is a rare condition. In the US, there were 154 confirmed infections with the brain-eating amoeba between 1962 and 2021. Only four patients survived, putting PAM’s death rate at 97%, according to US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. The World Health Organization estimates that there are around 1,000 to 2,000 cases of Naegleria fowleri globally every year.

Homes that survived Boulder County fire hid another disaster inside: Research details this urban wildfire health risk -On Dec. 30, 2021, one of the most destructive wildfires on record in Colorado swept through neighborhoods just a few miles from our offices at the University of Colorado Boulder. The flames destroyed over 1,000 buildings, yet when we drove through the affected neighborhoods, some houses were still completely intact right next to homes where nothing was left to burn.  Although the people who lived in these still-standing homes were spared the loss of everything they owned, when they returned after the fire, they found another disaster.  Noxious smells and ash on their windowsills and doorways initially made their homes unlivable—and potentially hazardous to human health. Some of these residents were still reporting health problems from being in their homes months later, even after the homes had been cleaned. We study wildfires and their health effects, and we knew people who lost their homes in the Marshall Fire. We also knew we had to act fast to study the fire's impact so lessons from the Marshall Fire could help homeowners elsewhere avoid similar hazards in the future.  But this fire was nothing like the wildfires that our research groups at the University of Colorado had previously studied. Most of what burned on that day was human-made rather than vegetation. When human-made materials like electronics, vehicles and home furnishings burn, they release different types of air pollutants and may affect health differently compared to when vegetation burns.The outdoor air pollution was less of an issue because the wildfire was short-lived—the powerful winds that fueled the fire quieted down and changed direction about 11 hours after the fire started, and the first snow of the season finally fell. This snowfall ended the fire and cleaned the outside air of pollution. The key concern was what chemicals lingered inside the undestroyed homes—soaked up into the fabrics of carpets, sofas, drywall, air vents and more—that would slowly release into the home for some time after the fire. We hypothesized that there were lots of volatile organic compounds (VOCs)—toxic gases, which were emitted during the fire that had seeped into homes and become embedded in the fabrics and building materials. Of particular concern were aromatic compounds like benzene, a known carcinogen, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), which are emitted from wildfires and have known health effects. In addition, we were worried about metals in the ash and soot deposited in homes, and the potential for it to become suspended in the air again when people returned and heating systems came on.Despite knowing that some of these gases were toxic, we did not know the levels inside the homes, or what remediation efforts to suggest to residents, because little scientific research had been published on wildland-urban interface fires like this one. We realized that we needed to do some of that research to help our own community—and the next community affected by a wildland-urban interface fire.

Johnson & Johnson Files Lawsuit Against Mesothelioma Expert (one of the doctors serving Ground Zero workers) For years, Johnson & Johnson has faced personal injury claims filed by people diagnosed with malignant mesothelioma and ovarian cancer who blame talc in the company’s cosmetic products for their illness. With 40,000 claims pending, the company pursued a controversial legal strategy: they transferred all liability for their talc-based products to a new subsidiary, then had the subsidiary file for bankruptcy protection. This week that subsidiary took another aggressive step: they filed a disparagement lawsuit against Dr. Jacqueline Miriam Moline, a top mesothelioma expert who frequently testifies against them. Dr. Moline frequently acts as an expert witness in mesothelioma lawsuits and other claims involving exposure to asbestos. She is an Occupational Medicine Specialist and Professor of Occupational Medicine, Epidemiology and Prevention and Internal Medicine, as well as a department chair at the Donald & Barbara Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell. She is also Director of the Northwell Health Queens World Trade Center Health Program and Director of the New York State funded Occupational and Environmental Medicine of Long Island Clinical Center.Johnson & Johnson’s subsidiary LTL Management has filed suit against Dr. Moline, saying she published an article claiming that 33 individuals who used their talc powder developed malignant mesothelioma and had no other potential exposure to asbestos. Their claim says that Dr. Moline knew that this claim was false when she made it, and that she did so “for her own personal aggrandizement and gain.” They argue that her statements have caused the company significant ongoing harm and are seeking compensation for their commercial, reputational, and financial losses. Many mesothelioma victims and ovarian cancer victims have relied upon Dr. Moline to help support their quest for justice against companies that have exposed them to asbestos. As these victims have been awarded large damage awards by juries, companies have responded in a variety of ways: before its bankruptcy maneuver, Johnson & Johnson stopped using talc in its products.

Indian maker of syrup linked to Uzbekistan deaths halts production, facility inspected - India’s drug regulator said on Thursday that it had inspected Marion Biotech’s production facility and promised more action based on the probe report after the company’s cough syrup was linked to the death of 18 children in Uzbekistan. A legal representative of Marion Biotech says the Indian maker of pharmaceuticals and cosmetics regretted the deaths and the company has halted production of the Dok-1 Max syrup. The drug regulator reviewed the company’s Noida facility in the Uttar Pradesh state and is in regular touch with its Uzbekistan counterpart, the Indian health ministry says in a statement. “The samples of the cough syrup have been taken from the manufacturing premises and sent to Regional Drugs Testing Laboratory, Chandigarh for testing,” the ministry says. Uzbekistan’s health ministry said on Wednesday that at least 18 children in the country died after consuming the syrup, manufactured by the Indian drug maker. The syrup contained a toxic substance, ethylene glycol, and was administered in doses higher than the standard dose for children either by their parents, who mistook it for an anti-cold remedy, or on the advice of pharmacists, the Uzbekistan ministry says. Seven employees were dismissed by the Uzbek ministry following a probe into the matter, and “disciplinary measures” were taken against some specialists. The Doc-1 Max tablets and syrups have also been withdrawn from all pharmacies, the ministry adds. The incident follows another similar one in Gambia, where the deaths of at least 70 children had been linked to cough and cold syrups manufactured by New Delhi-based Maiden Pharmaceuticals Ltd. The Indian government and also the company, however, have since denied the allegations. India is known as the ‘pharmacy of the world’ and has doubled its pharmaceutical exports over the last decade, touching $24.5 billion in the last fiscal year.

Cough syrup deaths: Marion Biotech into pharma, nutraceuticals, cosmetic products -  Noida-based Marion Biotech, under the scanner following the death of 18 children in Uzbekistan allegedly after consuming its cough syrup, is the flagship firm of Emenox group which also has a presence in real estate and hospitals. The privately held firm has a range of products spanning pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals, herbals, and cosmetic products. Founded in 1999, the company is understood to have a presence in Central Asian countries, Central and Latin America, South East Asia, and Africa. It claims to be the brand leader in the categories that it is present in these markets. Marion Biotech is a licensed manufacturer and holds the licence for manufacturing Dok-1 Max syrup and tablet for exports granted by the Drugs Controller, Uttar Pradesh. It does not sell the Dok-1 Max syrup in India. The company has a division, Emenox Healthcare which is into pharmaceutical manufacturing.

Europe plagued by 'most devastating' bird flu outbreak ever, EU says - Europe has been gripped by its "most devastating" ever outbreak of bird flu in the past year, European health authorities said on Tuesday as experts study the feasibility of vaccinations. Between October 2021 and September 2022, around 2,500 outbreaks of bird flu were detected on farms in 37 European countries, the European Food Safety Authority, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the EU said. In that time "some 50 million birds were slaughtered" on affected farms, the EFSA reported. The toll did not include preventive culls of chickens, ducks and turkeys that were carried out alongside the outbreaks, the health agency told AFP. The EFSA said that "for the first time" there had been no marked separation between two epidemic waves, as the virus was not brought under control in the summer. This autumn, the epidemic was more virulent than last year at the same time, with the number of infected farms 35 percent higher. Between September 2 and December 10, 2022, around 400 outbreaks were recorded on farms in 18 European countries. The virus has also been detected more than 600 times in wild birds, notably ducks and swans, which the report said may have contributed to the spread of the virus between farms. Health authorities are studying the possibility of using vaccinations to arrest the spread of the virus. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said the risk of infection in humans was low, and "low to medium" for people working in contact with birds and poultry.

Poop Analysis Shows Endangered Bears Are Surviving Exclusively on Garbage -- A team of wildlife experts found that most Himalayan brown bears – of which only up to 700 exist – don’t remember what they originally ate anymore. A critically endangered brown bear species found exclusively in the Himalayas is now surviving on garbage such as plastic and a South Asian rice dish unfit for their digestion, a new study has found. The Himalayan brown bear is listed as “critically endangered” on the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red List.  This first-of-its-kind diet analysis of Himalayan brown bears conducted by Indian NGO Wildlife SOS and the Wildlife Protection Department of India-administered Jammu and Kashmir state, found plastic bags, chocolate wrappers, shards of glass and improperly disposed high-calorie Indian biryani in their poop. “Since [the garbage, including biryani] are not a part of the natural diet of these bears who usually feed on grass, plants and small mammals, these items can be harmful to the gastric intestinal structure of the [Himalayan] brown bear,” Swaminathan S, senior biologist at Wildlife SOS who led the project, told VICE World News. “It can cause severe ailments and even shorten their lifespan.”  One key site of garbage was a holy camp called Amarnath, where people were disposing up to 550 kilograms of filth, including rancid biryani.  The survey was done between July and October, 2021, and covered over 400 Himalayan brown bears, which are usually extremely reclusive. The team installed over 20,000 trap cameras, commonly used to survey wildlife in India, across the Jammu and Kashmir region, especially at garbage dumps.   Photos and video shared with VICE World News shows footage of the bears munching on filth at night. Himalayan brown bears are omnivores and usually eat fresh plants, insects and small mammals.  The Himalayan brown bears belong to one of the most ancient bear lineages. One survey estimates there are up to 700 of these bears in the subcontinent, but there’s very little data about their distribution and lifestyle.  Recent news reports show the brown bears are increasingly entering human habitats. Conservationists have previously noted the role of armed conflict in the region since the 1990s in destroying habitats of brown bears.  In some places, the wildlife officials found that the bears were so used to eating garbage that they’ve forgotten their original feeding habits. Swaminathan said that their camera traps captured the bears at garbage sites with their cubs, showing a very real possibility that the new diet will now be passed on to the next generation of these endangered bears.

Humans Are Destroying Animals’ Ancestral Knowledge -  Bighorn sheep and moose learn to migrate from one another. When they die, that generational know-how is not easily replaced. In the 1800s, there were so many bighorn sheep in Wyoming that when one trapper passed through Jackson Hole, he described “over a thousand sheep in the cliffs above our campsite.” No such sights exist today. The bighorns slowly fell to hunters’ rifles, and to diseases spread from domestic sheep. Most herds were wiped out, and by 1900, a species that once numbered in the millions stood instead in the low thousands.In the 1940s, the Wyoming Game and Fish Department began trying to move bighorns back into their historic habitats. Those relocations continue today, and they’ve been increasingly successful at restoring the extirpated herds. But the lost animals aren’t just lost bodies. Their knowledge also died with them—and that is not easily replaced. Bighorn sheep, for example, migrate. They’ll climb for dozens of miles over mountainous terrain in the spring, “surfing” the green waves of newly emerged plants. They learn the best routes from one another, over decades and generations. And for that reason, a bighorn sheep that’s released into unfamiliar terrain is an ecological noob. It’s not the same as an individual that lived in that place its whole life and was led through it by a knowledgeable mother.

Court faults EPA for approving bee-killing pesticide – The EPA failed to properly consider the environmental impacts of a controversial pesticide, according to an appeals court decision that faulted the agency over a Trump-era decision that drew outrage from environmental groups. In a decision issued Wednesday, the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals asserted that regulators should have considered the impacts of the bee-killing insecticide sulfoxaflor when it expanded that product’s use for long-term approval.That action, taken under former President Donald Trump, drew legal wrath from beekeepers who argued that the agency had bypassed public comment in making its decision while also violating several protective statutes.Writing for the majority, Judge Kenneth Lee expressed agreement with that pushback, which came from the Pollinator Stewardship Council, American Beekeeping Federation and a beekeeper, all represented by Earthjustice. EPA, Lee said, violated the Endangered Species Act’s “mandate that it determine whether the pesticide may affect endangered or threatened species or their habitat, and (if so) consult other wildlife agencies to consider its impact on endangered species.” The agency had argued that it lacked the resources to do more extensive due diligence, but Lee dismissed that argument. “EPA cannot flout the will of Congress just because it contends it is too busy or understaffed,” Lee wrote, adding that the agency’s “repeated violations of the ESA undermined the political structure.” He further asserted that the agency should have solicited public comment, as is expected under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act. But the panel still opted not to vacate the agency’s decision around sulfoxaflor, arguing that to do so “might end up harming the environment more and disrupting the agricultural industry.” Instead, the appeals court remanded the case back to EPA for further action, directing regulators to “to act immediately [to] address the deficiencies,” including vetting the decision under ESA and FIFRA.

Prolonged winter storm causes at least 35 deaths and leaves thousands without power on Christmas Day - - A nearly weeklong winter storm blasting much of the US has plunged temperatures to life-threatening lows, brought blizzards and floods, and left more than a quarter million people without power on Christmas Day, CNN reported. Blizzard conditions continue across the Great Lakes, while frigid cold temperatures grip the eastern two-thirds of the US, with some major cities in the Southeast, Midwest and East Coast recording their coldest Christmas in decades. Large areas of the central and eastern US remain under wind chill warnings and advisories, as freeze warnings are in effect across the South. New York City saw record cold temperatures on Christmas Eve at several locations, including its JFK and LaGuardia airports. The high at Central Park was 15 degrees, marking its second-coldest December 24 in at least 150 years, according to the National Weather Service. At least 35 deaths have been attributed to dangerous weather conditions since Wednesday, and some residents in the Northeast are spending the holiday without sufficient heat or hot water as extremely cold temperatures persist. Across the US, 275,856 homes and businesses in the US had no electricity service as of 1 a.m. ET, many of them in Maine and New York, according to PowerOutage.us. Since the start of the storm the number of outages has at times exceeded a million customers. A power grid operator for at least 13 states in the country's eastern half asked customers to conserve power and set thermostats lower than usual from early Saturday to 10 a.m. on Sunday because usage was straining capacity. The operator, PJM Interconnection, serves about 65 million people in all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia, and warned rolling blackouts could happen if the strain becomes too much. In New York, utility companies Con Edison and Natural Grid US also urged customers to conserve energy, citing extreme weather conditions and increased energy demand on interstate pipelines carrying natural gas into the city. Meanwhile, a shortage of electricity in Texas prompted the US Department of Energy to declare an emergency Friday, allowing the state's energy provider to exceed environmental emissions standards until energy usage drops.

Blizzard kills 13 in Buffalo, N.Y., area (Reuters) - A lethal blizzard paralyzed Buffalo, New York, on Christmas Day, trapping motorists and rescue workers in their vehicles, leaving thousands of homes without power and raising the death toll from storms that have chilled much of the United States for days. At least 30 people have died in U.S. weather-related incidents, according to an NBC News tally, since a deep freeze gripped most of the nation, coupled with snow, ice and howling winds from a sprawling storm that roared out of the Great Lakes region on Friday. Much of the loss of life has centered in and around Buffalo at the edge of Lake Erie in western New York, as numbing cold and heavy "lake-effect" snow - the result of frigid air moving over warmer lake waters - persisted through the holiday weekend. Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz said the storm's confirmed death toll climbed to 13 on Sunday, up from three reported overnight in the Buffalo region. The latest victims included some found in cars and some in snow banks, Poloncarz said, adding that the death tally would likely rise further. New York Governor Kathy Hochul called it an "epic, once-in-a-lifetime" weather disaster that ranked as the fiercest winter storm to hit the greater Buffalo area since a crippling 1977 blizzard that killed nearly 30 people. The latest blizzard came nearly six weeks after a record-setting but shorter-lived lake-effect storm struck western New York. Despite a ban on road travel imposed since Friday, hundreds of Erie County motorists were stranded in their vehicles over the weekend, with National Guard troops called in to help with rescues hindered by white-out conditions and drifting snow, Poloncarz said. Many snow plows and other equipment sent on Saturday and Sunday became stuck in the snow, "and we had to send rescue missions to rescue the rescuers," he told reporters. The Buffalo police department posted an online plea to the public for assistance in search-and-recovery efforts, asking those who "have a snow mobile and are willing to help" to call a hotline for instructions. The severity of the storm was notable even for a region accustomed to harsh winter weather. Christina Klaffka, 39, a North Buffalo resident, watched the shingles blow off her neighbor's home and listened to her windows rattle from "hurricane-like winds." She lost power along with her whole neighborhood on Saturday evening, and was still without electricity on Sunday morning.

Deadly lake-effect blizzard buries Buffalo in nearly 4 feet of snow | AccuWeather  -- The same powerful storm that brought blizzard conditions and severe cold to a large portion of the central United States generated a major lake-effect snow event prior to Christmas. Conditions have turned deadly, with at least 27 fatalities reported in western New York, including 20 in the greater Buffalo area, amid nearly 4 feet of snow.According to local authorities, many of the fatalities occurred due to the extreme cold, as people became stranded on impassable roadways. In other cases, first responders were unable to drive through the massive snow drifts, and could not reach medical emergencies. Members of the National Guard were dispatched to Erie County Saturday morning to get people out of stranded cars, targeting the hardest-hit spots in the Buffalo metro area.During Friday and overnight Saturday, local first responders and emergency equipment were unable to reach hard-hit spots, including Buffalo, unable to "even go a few blocks" according to Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz. "Getting first responders back online is our top priority," he said. The storm began as a rain event for Buffalo, with the city receiving 1.98 inches on Friday, breaking the prior daily record of 1.73 inches that had stood since 1878. As Arctic air rushed in, however, rain changed to heavy snow Friday morning. The Buffalo airport recorded zero-mile visibility for nearly 16 hours from midday Friday to the early morning hours of Christmas Eve. "One of the most extensive, most intense blizzards I've ever covered," Extreme Meteorologist Reed Timmer said amid the snowstorm. "Just a feeling out here of helplessness not being able to see anything, losing your sense of up versus down," Timmer explained as the wind-driven snow howled around him. So far, 43 inches of snow have been reported at Buffalo Niagara International Airport, located just northwest of downtown. On Friday alone, the airport received 22.3 inches, followed by another 17.9 inches on Christmas Eve. The airport reported 22.3 inches of snow on Friday and another 17.9 inches on Christmas Eve. The National Weather Service office in Buffalo posted a picture on Twitter showing the massive mounds of snow piled outside of their building. "Many (many) cars are still buried throughout the area," the post said.

Buffalo, NY, area sees winter storm death toll rises to 25 as residents remain trapped under feet of snow | CNN At least 25 people have died in Erie County, New York, as a result of a massive winter storm which blasted much of the US in recent days, county officials said Monday, bringing the nationwide death toll to 47. The updated number of deaths in Erie County, which includes the city of Buffalo, comes as parts of western New York remain buried by up to 43 inches of snow, leaving vehicles stuck and power out for thousands over the Christmas holiday, just one month after the region was slammed with a historic snowstorm. “This is a horrible situation,” Erie County executive Mark Poloncarz said in a news conference, noting officials expect between 8 and 12 more inches of snow to fall between Monday morning and 1 p.m. Tuesday. “This is not helpful as we’re trying to recover and clear off streets and get into areas that still have not” been plowed, he said.While driving bans have been lifted in some communities, one such ban remains in place in Buffalo, Poloncarz said, describing the city is “impassable in most areas,” with abandoned cars, trucks and vehicles scattered everywhere. Regardless, Erie County Sheriff John Garcia urged residents to stay home, he told CNN, to keep the roads clear for emergency crews. Even emergency and recovery vehicles sent out to help have gotten stuck in the snow as rescue crews and hundreds of snowplow drivers fanned out on Christmas Day. Eleven abandoned ambulances were dug out on Sunday, officials said. “We had to send specialized rescue crews to go get the rescuers,” Poloncarz told “CNN This Morning” Monday, adding it was the worst storm he could remember. “It was just horrendous, and it was horrendous for 24 hours in a row.” “We’re used to snow here, we can handle snow,” he said. “But with the wind, the blinding views – it was complete whiteouts – and the extreme cold, it was some of the worst conditions that any of us have ever seen.” Many of New York’s weather-related fatalities were in Erie County, where some people had died of exposure or due to cardiac events while shoveling or blowing snow, Poloncarz said in the news conference, citing the findings of the county’s medical examiner’s office.Hundreds of National Guard troops have been deployed to help with rescue efforts in New York. State police had been involved in over 500 rescues by Sunday, including delivering a baby,

Buffalo hit by most devastating winter storm on record, New York - - (5 videos) A massive Christmas winter storm buried parts of western New York with up to 109 cm (43 inches) of snow, leaving at least 27 people dead. Sadly, authorities said the death toll may rise because some people have been trapped in cars for more than two days. Nationwide, the death toll stands at 49, as of late December 26. According to local authorities, many of the fatalities in New York occurred due to the extreme cold, as people became stranded on impassable roadways. In other cases, first responders were unable to drive through the massive snow drifts, and could not reach medical emergencies.1 Parts of western New York were buried under 109 cm (43 inches) of snow, with most of it falling on the Buffalo Niagara International Airport and its vicinity. On December 23, the airport received 56.6 mm (22.3 inches) of snow and another 45.5 mm (17.9 inches) on December 24. In total, this weather station recorded 235.4 cm (92.7 inches) of snow since the start of the season. “The 235.4 cm (92.7 inches) of snow is not only the most snow to start the winter season through Christmas, but also just 6.8 cm (2.7 inches) behind the typical entire seasonal snowfall,” the NWS office in Buffalo said. The storm began as a rain event for Buffalo, with the city receiving 5 mm (1.98 inches) on Friday, December 23, breaking the prior daily record of 4.4 mm (1.73 inches) set in 1878. “As Arctic air rushed in, however, rain changed to heavy snow Friday morning. The Buffalo airport recorded zero-mile visibility for nearly 16 hours from midday Friday to the early morning hours of Christmas Eve,” AccuWeather meteorologists said. Extreme Meteorologist Reed Timmer described this weather event as ‘one of the most extensive, most intense blizzards I’ve ever covered.’ On December 26, Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz said that 27 people died in Erie County — 14 people died due to exposure, 3 people were found in their vehicles, 4 had no heat, 3 died while shoveling snow, and 3 people passed away after EMS services were delayed. New York state police said they performed over 500 rescues by Sunday, December 25, including delivering a baby and helping a man with 4% left on his mechanical heart, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said.2 “We’re still in the throes of this very dangerous life-threatening situation,” Hochul said, urging residents to stay off the roads as a driving ban remains in place in Erie County through Monday, December 26. “Our state and county plows have been out there, nonstop, giving up time and putting themselves in danger, driving through blinding snowstorms to clear the roads,” Hochul said. “Some residents have remained in their homes for the last 56 hours, some without power in the freezing cold,” Hochul said. This was not due to a lack of resources, but due to mobility and access challenges faced by utility companies. Early Friday morning, December 23, over 240 million people in the United States were under some form of winter weather warning or advisory, marking one of the greatest extents of winter weather warnings and advisories ever recorded in the United States.3 The death toll nationwide rose to at least 49, as of late December 26. 27 people died in New York, 2 in Colorado, 3 in Kansas, another 3 in Kentucky, 1 in Missouri, 9 in Ohio, 1 in Tennesee, and 1 in Wisconsin.

A Christmas-week winter storm and Arctic blast for the ages, by the numbers - An extraordinary bout of wintry weather entangled much of the United States over Christmas week. Historic cold and a huge footprint of strong winds and fierce blizzard conditions affected hundreds of millions of Americans during one of the busiest travel weeks of the year. owhere was the weather as destructive as it was in Buffalo. There, nearly two full days of severe blizzard conditions dropped visibility to zero and forced snow into massive drifts, shuttering the snow-hardened city and leaving hundreds stranded. Worst blizzard I have ever covered,” wrote veteran storm chaser Reed Timmer. hile the astounding and even unprecedented facets of the massive storm will be examined for a long time, key raw numbers can help convey its power.

• 200 million people under alert — Almost two-thirds of the U.S. population was under either a wind chill warning or wind chill advisory between Wednesday and Saturday. Including the winter storm warnings in effect at the same time, well over two-thirds of the population was under weather alerts.
• 1.5 million customers without power — An unusually large number of customers for a winter storm were without power at peak. Large portions of the Mid-South and the Carolinas dealt with managed power cuts to prevent grid failure. The Tennessee Valley Authority was among electric providers that instituted rolling blackouts. The Tennessee Titans football game was even postponed by an hour on Christmas Eve.
• 16,000-plus flights canceled — More than 16,000 flights were canceled from Thursday through Monday morning, a period encompassing of the year’s most hectic travel days. Several airports were shut at times, including Buffalo Niagara, which closed.The Christmas-week winter storm affected hundreds of millions of Americans during one of the busiest travel weeks of the year.
• 600-plus motorists stranded — Erie County, home of Buffalo, reported that about 500 motorists were stranded Friday night and Saturday morning. Conditions were so bad that many first responders also required rescue. n Wednesday, another incident stranded more than 100 motorists near Rapid City in southwest South Dakota. And those were just some of the larger disruptions. Multiple interstates and highways, from the Plains to the Midwest and the Northeast, were closed at times during the storm.
• 26 Buffalo-area deaths — At least 26 people have died in the Buffalo area, officials said, making this one of the city’s deadliest modern-day weather events since a 1977 blizzard that killed 29. The toll could still rise. Additional fatalities have been reported in 16 states from the wintry weather.
• 10 states under blizzard warnings — Nearly a dozen states saw blizzard warnings issued from the storm, including Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, Wisconsin and New York.
• Dozens of records — Record low temperatures and record low maximums entered the northern Plains early in Christmas week and spread southeastward, ultimately leaving few areas untouched. asper, Wyo., saw its lowest temperature in recorded history on Thursday morning at minus-42 degrees. On Christmas Eve, much of the East Coast between New York and Florida saw records fall. Even most of Florida, where sleet came down in a few locations, spent Christmas Day in the 40s, with numerous records set. In Miami, a high of 50 was the lowest on record for the date.
• 2,235 minutes of blizzard conditions — That’s 37.25 hours of nonstop blizzard conditions in Buffalo. Blizzard conditions are defined as a concurrence of wind gusting at or above 35 mph, blowing/falling snow, and visibility at or below 0.25 miles. For many hours, winds gusted over 60 mph as temperatures plummeted into the single digits. That smashed the previous record for the city: 960 minutes in 1985.
• 71 mph peak gust — As the blizzard got going Friday morning, Buffalo clocked a top wind gust of 71 mph with heavy snow falling. Another gust of 70 mph was recorded during the afternoon. Numerous gusts above 60 mph continued into the night. Visibility was as low as zero miles at times. Wind gusts of near or above 50 mph were recorded all over the place, including in Atlanta, Washington, D.C., and New York City. Winds in Boston gusted to 60 mph and in Providence to 64 mph. ere are some top gusts by state:
• Mount Washington, N.H. — 151 mph
• Elk Mountain, Wyo. — 83 mph
• Lackawanna, N.Y. — 79 mph
• Frenchville, Maine — 74 mph
• Fairview Lanes, Ohio — 72 mph
• Yarmouth, Mass. — 72 mph
• Rolla, N.D. — 71 mph
• Copper Harbor, Mich. — 71 mph
• Barton, Md. — 69 mph
• Bristol, R.I. — 69 mph
• Burlington, Vt. — 64 mph
• New Haven, Conn. — 64 mph
• 43 inches of snow — The total amount in Buffalo. Winds blew some of it into drifts of 10 feet or more. The three-day storm snowfall was the second-largest in the city’s modern history. Some other top-end snowfall totals include:
  • Snyder, N.Y. — 56.5 inches
  • Baraga, Mich. — 42.8 inches
  • Watertown, N.Y. — 34.2 inches
  • Reliance, Wyo. — 22 inches
  • Grand Rapids, Mich. — 19.3 inches
  • Ashland, Wis. — 15.6 inches
  • Eldora, Colo. — 13 inches
  • Tofte, Minn. — 12 inches
  • Edgartown, Mass. — 9 inches (from rare ocean-effect snow on Martha’s Vineyard)

• 75-degree swing — In Denver, the temperature plummeted from 51 degrees on Wednesday to minus-24 on Thursday — one of the biggest swings on record. A similar drop was observed at Wind River in Wyoming, where it went from 33 to minus-38 in 24 hours. Record and near-record 24-hour temperature drops progressed eastward with the front, reaching up to 50 degrees in the Ohio Valley and the Mid-South, then to around 40 to 45 degrees on the East Coast. A 59-degree temperature difference — from minus-4 to 55 degrees — between Pittsburgh and Boston on Thursday afternoon was the largest on record between the two cities.
• Minus-75 degrees wind chill — The coldest known wind chill in the period occurred in Elk Park, Mont., before dawn Thursday. A temperature of minus-49 and a wind speed of 9 mph produced the reading. In addition to Montana, locations in Wyoming, both Dakotas and Nebraska saw wind chills dip to at least minus-55. Denver’s minus-42 wind chill was its second-lowest on record.
• 135-degree-temperature difference — On Thursday, a massive temperature difference occurred between the Lower 48 states’ warmest and coldest locations. Elk Park’s minus-50 tied for the second-lowest temperature in the Lower 48 since 2011. On the same day near Florida City, Fla., it was a balmy 85.
• 963 millibar pressure — The winter storm’s central pressure dropped over 31 millibars in 24 hours as it wrapped up in the Great Lakes before bottoming out at 963 millibars — which is comparable to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The pressure exceeded the criteria for the storm to be considered a “bomb cyclone,” the most intense breed of mid-latitude storm.

Nearly 10,000 flights have been canceled or delayed so far this holiday weekend due to severe weather. Here are the 5 cities most plagued by delays and cancellations at the airport. Airlines have had to cancel or delay nearly 10,000 flights this holiday weekend so far after a winter storm surged across the United States and plunged temperatures to below-freezing nationwide.Airlines canceled nearly 3,000 flights and delayed over 6,000 more in the US as of Saturday afternoon, according to the flight-tracking site FlightAware.Here are five airports with the most delays and cancellations this weekend. Airlines canceled more than 300 flights at the Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport on Friday due to the severe weather, according to The Detroit News.  Weather conditions reached "blizzard" level for the first time in a decade in Michigan on Wednesday with snowfalls reaching up to 10 to 18 inches in some areas, according to WOOD. Air temperatures are still in the low to single digits in Detroit, according to WDIV.  elays were taking as long as two hours on Saturday morning for people at O'Hare International Airport in Chicago two get to their flight gates because the airport's train system stopped working, according to WGN.   The Chicago Department of Aviation told WGN that the Airport Transit System went down on Thursday and was not operational until Saturday morning because of the extreme weather.  Temperatures in Chicago were below 0 degrees Fahrenheit for 29 hours before they began to rise early Saturday morning, according to The Chicago Tribune. Still, winds are expected to reach 40 miles per hour with wind chills of -25 to -30 degrees Fahrenheit below in Chicago on Saturday, the outlet reported. CBS Minnesota reported significant lines and wait times for people at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport on Thursday after the city got more than eight inches of snow.  Roads began to reopen in south Minnesota on Saturday when temperatures started to rise after Gov. Tim Walz state had declared a state of emergency due to blizzard-like conditions, according to KMSP. Southwest Airlines is under a "state of operations emergency at the Denver airport, the airline said on Saturday morning according to KDVR. There have been more than 200 flight delays and more than 100 cancellations at the airport, KDVR reported.  Temperatures have been below 0 degrees Fahrenheit in Denver for the last 42 hours, according to KDVR,   Airport in Atlanta, Georgia on Thursday, according to WXIA. Nearly 2 million people are expected to travel through the airport during the holiday weekend, the outlet reported.

Death toll continues to mount as extreme winter weather inundates Buffalo and freezes much of United States - Freezing temperatures and massive snowfall are blamed for at least 57 deaths across the US as of Monday evening, with many more expected as temperatures remain below freezing and people are trapped in their cars. Since Friday, more than 200 million people have been affected by a massive winter storm stretching from Maine in the Northeast down to the Gulf of Mexico and as far west as the Rocky Mountains. Over 1.7 million people have lost power. Buffalo, New York, where at least 27 people have died, has seen some of the worst winter weather recorded. As of Monday, the Buffalo airport reported over 40 inches (101.6 cm) of snow with another 9 inches (22.86 cm) to a foot (30.48 cm) being predicted before snow is expected to stop on Tuesday. Hurricane strength winds knocked out power for many, created whiteout conditions and prevented emergency crews from reaching those in need. Many of those who died were trapped in their cars or homes without power. One person was found dead in a snow drift, and several people died while shoveling snow. At least two people died when they had a medical emergency, but first responders were not able to get through. William Clay was found lying face down in the snow on Christmas Eve. Relatives said it was his 56th birthday and that he may have been seeking to buy something from a nearby convenience store. People placed desperate calls on social media for assistance, asking for food and, in one case, diapers. “Anyone have an update on the Parkside area and when they should get power back? My family including my 94 year old grandma live in the smaller neighborhood next to Medaille college and have been without heat/power since Friday am. National Grid maps are totally incorrect and there hasn’t been a crew out. No plowing has been done so no one can get in or out. They’ve tried the 858-snow number which has been useless so far.” Another pleaded for help as fuel ran out to light candles and phones were dying: “Anybody near Rhode Island st that can help my family out ? We’ve had no power/ no heat for over 24hrs now. We are also very limited on the food that we can make. All of our phones are dying/almost dead and we won’t have anything in case of a emergency. and we barley have any butane left for our Stick lighter to light candles! if you can help out please pm me  thank you. — feeling cold.” At 10 a.m. Monday morning, one person wrote: “120 Minnesota Ave is now going on 72 hours without power or heat. there has been a report of one resident deceased. I was able to escape with my family, but there is no way the other residents are able to leave and walk through the snow. Many are elderly and physically unable to walk. We need snowmobiles sent to 120 Minnesota asap. One neighbor is trapped on the 3rd floor and cannot walk down the stairs without assistance we have been communicating with him via text and he is now not making sense and says he thinks he’s going to die. I will pay for someone with a snowmobile to please help them!” This is the second major snow fall to inundate Western New York this season. A massive storm in November dumped a record of over 5 feet (1.52 meters) of snow on the region. While bringing slightly less snow, this latest storm is having a bigger impact because of the extremely high winds and the much broader scope of the storm. Officials say that on any given night, 2,500 to 4,000 people in Buffalo are homeless, living with others, in shelters or out on the streets. They are the most exposed to the deadly effects of winter weather and are at most risk to be injured or killed. Maruce, who works at the Faith Based Fellowship, a homeless shelter near downtown Buffalo, told the World Socialist Web Site that they are completely full and are being forced to refer those seeking shelter to a social services hotline. “We are all snowed in, everyone is in the house. Nice and warm. We have been getting a lot of calls the last couple of days, we are full. I direct them to 211 and they will get them placed somewhere. “It is hard, they are calling and knowing they are in need and we are just unable to help. There is help out there and everything I can do I will do.” Lack of affordable housing and homelessness is a big problem in Buffalo as it is in the rest of the country. Maruce pointed out that the city owns a lot of abandoned properties that they could renovate as housing for the homeless. “There are even some abandoned housing projects, these could be fixed for the homeless. They have been abandoned for years.” . “When the moratorium on evictions was ended, a lot of people had to leave their homes.” Green explained that even when the moratorium was in effect, “many people lost their homes if they had to go into the hospital for a long time or weren’t able to get the mental health assistance that they needed.” On Saturday, nearly every fire truck in Buffalo was stranded in the snow. Overworked health care and emergency workers, already depleted from three years of the pandemic, are again being asked to sacrifice to address this crisis. One Buffalo health care worker posted on social media that they have been working for 48 hours straight and pleaded for anyone who was able to get to the hospital to relieve them.

A 22-year-old who was trapped in her car during snowstorm has died, her family says -- The family of a 22-year-old woman who shared videos of the unprecedented snowstorm in Buffalo, New York, as she was trapped in her car waiting for help says she was among the 34 dead in western New York from the city's deadliest snowstorm in decades.  Anndel Taylor was on her way home from her job as an assistant at a nursing home on Dec. 23 when her car got stuck in the snow, her family said.Taylor called 911 for help, but had no choice but to wait inside of her car, which she kept running, her mother Wanda Brown Steele told NBC News. Taylor's family said she had sent videos of her vehicle stuck in the snow, and last heard from her shortly after midnight on Dec. 24, when she said she was going to try to go to sleep and walk to safety in the morning. Taylor's sister Tomeshia Brown said she posted a photo of Taylor, along with her approximate location, in a Facebook group. A man who lived nearby went out and found her vehicle around 9 p.m. on Dec. 25, Brown said.Taylor was found dead lying in the reclined driver's seat."I’m good one minute, then it hits me," Brown Steele told NBC News.The Erie County Medical Examiner did not immediately respond to a request for comment from NBC News regarding Taylor's cause of death.Taylor's sisters criticized first responders for not getting to her sister and her vehicle for two days.  "I don’t understand what they’re there for," Shawnequa Brown said. "I feel like I don’t know if they tried, but they didn’t try hard enough. I’m upset about it ... they never made it there at all."

Death toll climbs to 60 as impact of widespread US winter storm becomes clear - The massive storm and cold that is still sweeping most of the United States has exposed the inability of the capitalist system to deal with even basic social needs of the people, along with the devastating impact of capitalist-caused climate change. As of Tuesday, nearly 60 people have been confirmed killed in the current storm, half of them in Buffalo, New York. This number is certain to rise as rescue crews reach cars buried in the snow and homes that have been without power for days in sub-freezing temperatures. President Biden signed an emergency declaration for Western New York even as he prepared to leave for a vacation in the US Virgin Islands with First Lady Jill Biden. Buffalo is routinely hit with large quantities of snow, and climate scientists have warned that global warming will fuel more such storms both in frequency, intensity and duration. Just as with the COVID-19 pandemic, in which a quarter million deaths per year from a preventable disease have been presented as inevitable, the population is told to accept that it must go without basic services, properly maintained roads, power and other infrastructure needed to sustain life any time the wind blows or rain falls. While the Biden administration is boasting that it just passed a record military budget of $857.9 billion, it has been cutting social programs for the working class and poor. Between expenditures last year and those allocated in the new military budget, the Biden administration will spend nearly $100 billion fighting the NATO proxy war in Ukraine against Russia. Meanwhile, the elimination of the extended child tax credit has pushed millions of families into poverty. The lifting of a moratorium on evictions has driven up homelessness, and funding to fight the pandemic has been cut. The official death toll in Buffalo stands at 28 and social media are filled with pleas for help along with videos of people trapped in cars and homes. Anndel Taylor, 22, was driving home from work on Friday when her car got stuck in the snow. She called 911 for help but was repeatedly put on hold. She was able to send text and video to her family showing snow piling up around her car. By midnight, still trapped in her car, she told family that she was going to try and get some sleep and then walk home. That was the last they heard from her. First responders were not able to reach her for another 18 hours, after she had already died. Others have been found dead in their homes or cars. Several people died while walking or shoveling snow. On Monday, both Buffalo Mayor Brown and Governor Hochul stressed that people had been warned not to travel during the storm, implying that the fault lay with them. However, businesses were not ordered to close before the storm hit and many people were trapped coming home from work, one of whom was Anndel Taylor. Furthermore, while the storm was predicted a week in advance and could be watched developing for several days, as frigid temperatures moved from northwest to the south and east, officials took no action to ensure that roads would be plowed or emergency shelters set up for the homeless and those who lost power. On Friday, Buffalo temperatures quickly dropped into the sub-freezing and single digit range. Along with the rapid drop in temperatures, hurricane force winds reaching 79 MPH created whiteout conditions, reducing visibility to near-zero. City officials have yet to give a clear report on when plows were mobilized, although anecdotal accounts show that only token, if any, plowing was done as the storm began. By Saturday, all of Buffalo’s fire trucks had become stuck. On Sunday, according to local news, the city had only one 24-hour warming center open and two others open for half-days. Considering that people were unable to travel even a few blocks, let alone halfway across the city, this was ineffectual. Buffalo, like most American cities, does not operate any homeless shelters. Instead, they are run by religious and other charitable organizations. Under capitalism, health care, providing for the homeless, and ending hunger and poverty are not considered a social responsibility.

Homes coated in thick ice after heavy freezing spray from crashing waves on Lake Erie - (video) Heavy freezing spray from crashing waves on Lake Erie coated homes in thick ice during a severe Christmas 2022 blizzard in Hamburg, New York.

Running water scarce in Jackson, Mississippi, after frigid weather (Reuters) - Residents of Mississippi's capital are ending the year unable to count on clean running water in their homes after a freezing winter storm brought a fresh crisis to Jackson's beleaguered water infrastructure. Residents of the majority-Black city say their main water treatment plant has been poorly maintained and funded for years. In August, its pumps failed entirely, overwhelmed by historic flooding along the Pearl River, cutting off running water entirely for Jackson's 150,000 residents and about 30,000 people in the surrounding area.  The huge winter storm that caused chaos across the United States in the days before Christmas and killed more than 30 people in upstate New York brought unusually frigid weather to the Deep South. Other Southern cities unaccustomed to freezing weather were grappling with similar water issues, including Atlanta; Shreveport, Louisiana; and Selma, Alabama. Jackson Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba, a Democrat, on Sunday announced once again that all residents must boil water before using it for cooking or drinking. Homes in some parts of the city had no water at all, and officials have set up distribution points for bottled drinking water each day.The freeze caused dozens of burst pipes and other leaks, which were still being discovered as emergency crews combed the city, Lumumba said at a news briefing on Wednesday. It would likely take until Saturday at the earliest to find and fix the leaks, restore the water pressure and perform safety tests, he said. "I will say that that is a bit of an ambitious goal," he said.

‘Atmospheric river’ pummels California with heavy rain and snow -- A major storm known as an “atmospheric river” is pummeling California with heavy rain and high winds, continuing a streak of weather whiplash that has jolted the state from unseasonal heat to downpours in a matter of days.The storm, spawned by a low pressure system off the Pacific north-west, delivered deluges across the San Francisco Bay Area as it made landfall on Monday night, prompting the National Weather Service to issue flood advisories and watches through large parts of central and northern California. The storm is forecast to soak the southern part of the state by Tuesday evening, although it will soften as it moves down the coast. Forecasters said California will experience unsettled weather through the week. “A strong Pacific storm with a stream of high moisture will continue gusty to high winds over most of the western US, heavy to excessive rain along the coast, and mountain snow in the Sierras and Rockies today into Wednesday,” the National Weather Service reported, noting that the weather system could dump up to 5in of rain across parts of California and roughly 3ft of snow on mountain ranges. The agency also warned of the possibility of flash flooding, particularly in areas where wildfires have left “burn scars” that are vulnerable to floods due to a lack of vegetation. By Tuesday morning, heavy rainfall flooded roadways and strong winds tore down trees and branches in the affected region, adding new travel hazards for commuters and those departing from holiday celebrations. Downtown San Francisco had received more than an inch (2.5cm) of rain and Mount Tamalpais in the northern Bay Area had more than 4in (10cm) of rainfall before dawn. Low-lying locations including rivers, creeks and streams could flood, according to forecasts, including in urban areas.Winter storm warnings were issued for the Sierra Nevada, where motorists were advised that the combination of winds and snow could make travel hazardous. The greater Lake Tahoe area and Mono county were warned to expect heavy snow with wind gusts around 50 mph (80 km/h), and up to 100 mph (161 km/h) along Sierra ridgetops. Lake Tahoe was expected to have waves that could capsize small vessels. As the storm surges southward, temperatures are expected to drop by 15F across the central coast and into southern California. “There will likely be 12 hours of steady rain,” the National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard said in a forecast discussion issued on Tuesday, adding that the downpour was expected to reach Los Angeles county by Tuesday evening.

Falling Trees Killed Five People on Oregon Highways During Tuesday’s Windstorm - Five people traveling on Oregon highways Tuesday were killed by trees falling onto the road in the span of four hours, casualties of an intense windstorm that left 200,000 people without power. The National Weather Service’s Portland office recorded hurricane-force winds along the northern Oregon Coast yesterday afternoon: 86 miles per hour at Cape Perpetua and 74 mph in Manzanita. The Coastal Range also experienced severe winds, ranging from 50 to 73 mph—tropical storm force. It was those winds that toppled a “large diameter” tree onto the roof of a Ford F-150 traveling east on U.S. Highway 26 2 miles west of Camp 18 at 11:39 am Tuesday. Three people—the driver, Justin Nolasco Pedraza, 19, of Seaside, and passengers Bonifacio Olvera Nolasco, 41, of Seaside and a 4-year-old girl—were found dead inside the truck, Oregon State Police say. The investigation of the crash site closed Sunset Highway for five hours Tuesday, police said. “It was determined the tree fell directly onto the Ford F150 roof as it was passing by,” Oregon State Police said in a press release. Wednesday saw the shoulders of Highway 26 covered in a green carpet of fir branches and needles for much of its Coastal Range stretch. The deaths in the F-150 were the most horrifying of three incidents Dec. 27 in which people died from trees falling onto the highway in the windstorm.

Deadly crashes, mass power outages reported as atmospheric river brings flooding and strong winds to Oregon and Washington - CBS News An atmospheric river brought monster waves, high tides and strong winds to batter western Oregon and Washington. The weather led to fatal crashes, power outages and flooded homes on Tuesday. Although conditions in western Oregon became less intense on Wednesday, forecasters warned that the respite would likely be short-lived, as another storm system made its way south from Alaska, according to the National Weather Service. Strong winds felled trees and and knocked out power lines across large swaths of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday, cutting power for more than 160,000 people at certain points. Wind gusts reached 86 mph near Cape Perpetua on Oregon's central coast and 107 mph near the iconic Timberline Lodge on Mount Hood, said Andy Bryant, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service's Portland office. Utility companies have progressively restored power, but more than 30,000 people in Oregon were still affected by outages as of 5 p.m. local time Wednesday, according to online tracker PowerOutage.us. Portland General Electric and Pacific Power — among the utilities reporting the highest number of outages — both said they had hundreds of service crew members, including from out of state, working to assess and repair damage. Three people were killed, including a 4-year-old girl, when severe weather caused a large tree to fall on their pickup truck as they were driving on U.S. 26 about 15 miles east of the coastline, Oregon State Police said in a news release. The passengers were deceased when first responders arrived at the scene. Further east on U.S. 26 on Mount Hood, a motorist was killed when a large tree fell on the cab of the commercial truck he was driving because of snow and strong winds, causing it to lose control and leave the highway, state police said. The 53-year-old driver, who was alone in the truck, was pronounced dead at the scene. In Washington state, thousands of residents east of Seattle remained without power Wednesday afternoon after the previous day's wind storm caused extensive damage to power lines in and around North Bend and Snoqualmie. "It is mountainous terrain, more rural areas, where sometimes our crews will have to hike out on foot and use hand tools to take care of the situation,"

At least 5 people killed as deep and fast-moving storm hits Western U.S., extremely active weather pattern continues – (4 videos, 4 animated maps) -  At least 5 people were killed as a deep and fast-moving storm system brought flooding and landslides to California and Oregon, U.S. over the past couple of days. The event took place just days after a massive winter storm caused severe blizzard conditions and left more than 50 people dead. The National Weather Service (NWS) warns Western U.S., especially California, can expect an extremely active weather pattern over the next several days A constant flow of moisture will inundate the region with heavy rain, flooding, mountain snow and high winds as a potent storm arrives Friday into Saturday in California A low-pressure system over the Northeast Pacific and atmospheric river produced widespread short-duration but heavy rainfall in California and Oregon on December 27, at times bringing up to 25 mm (1 inch) of rain per hour. At least 5 people were killed in car crashes all involving downed trees, Oregon authorities said. Although this region often experiences atmospheric storms, what made this one unusual is its strength and duration. As of Wednesday afternoon, December 28, about 75 – 150 mm (3 – 6 inches) of rain was measured in the hardest hit areas and more rain is expected through the end of the week as a series of fronts move onshore the West Coast, track to the West and exit across the Plains spreading moderate to heavy precipitation across the West Coast and for portions of the Deep South. An initial wave of moisture will make its way inland over the Pacific Northwest and parts of California today, December 29, with a potent atmospheric river following on its heel for the end of the week, NWS forecasters Campbell and Snell noted.1 Moderate to heavy precipitation is expected along with heavy mountain snow. Most of the potential impacts are anticipated across central/northern California and parts of southwest Oregon where rainfall amounts of 75 – 150 mm (3 – 6 inches) are forecast through early this weekend. These amounts may lead to scattered instances of flash flooding, especially near recent burn scars where terrain is most susceptible to rapid runoff. The Weather Prediction Center has identified an area having a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall for these regions in order to further highlight the flash flood threat. Heavy snow is possible across the higher elevations of the Cascades and Sierra, with storm total snowfall amounts up to several feet possible. Most of the snow will be confined to the highest terrain as warm Pacific air pushes snow levels very high and generally above pass level.

Surprise winter storm cripples traffic in Denver, Colorado -  (videos) A surprise winter storm crippled holiday travel in Denver, Colorado on December 28, 2022. Winter Storm Warnings went out but not in time, Live Storms Media reports. Dozens and dozens of vehicles and semis were stranded on I-70 from Denver to Idaho Springs where multiple rescues have been underway transporting people to safety via tow trucks. Conditions are so slick that even wreckers are getting stuck as they attempt to pull vehicles up the passes. Drivers have been stranded for more than 10 hours.

Scientists say Arctic warming could be to blame for blasts of extreme cold -   The data is clear: Rising global temperatures mean winters are getting milder, on average, and the sort of record-setting cold that spanned the country Friday is becoming rarer. But at the same time, global warming may be altering atmospheric patterns and pushing harsh outbreaks of polar air to normally moderate climates, according to scientists who are actively debating the link.Drastic changes in the Arctic, which is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, are at the center of the discussion. Shifts in Arctic ice and snow cover are triggering atmospheric patterns that allow polar air to spread southward more often, according to recent research. “We’ve seen the same situation basically the last three years in a row,” said Jennifer Francis, senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts. “Here we go again.”But understanding any link between planetary warming and extreme cold remains a work in progress. Many climate scientists still emphasize that even if frigid air escapes the Arctic more often, that air will nonetheless become milder over time.The debate started with a research paper Francis co-authored in 2012. It gets revived whenever an extreme-cold event creates headlines, such as in 2021, when Texas’s energy grid was overwhelmed by a storm that killed 246 people. Francis’s research hypothesized that Arctic warming was reducing the contrast between polar and tropical temperatures, weakening the jet stream, a band of strong winds in the upper atmosphere that helps guide weather patterns. A weaker jet stream would allow weather systems to more easily swing from the Arctic down into mid-latitude regions that typically have temperate climates..A 2021 study published in the journal Science is one new point of debate. The research explains what author Judah Cohen called “a physical foundation” linking Arctic warming and changes in atmospheric patterns.It focuses on the polar vortex, an area of low pressure typically parked over the North Pole and surrounded by a band of fast-flowing air. Cohen likens it to a spinning top — when the polar vortex is strong, that band of air spins in a tight circle. Increasingly often, Cohen found, the polar vortex weakens like a wobbling top. That gives the circulating air a more oblong, extended shape and encourages bursts of Arctic air to spread southward. While the polar vortex took on that stretched shape for about 10 days a year in 1980, in recent years, it has been occurring more than twice as often, said Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research.  The research links that to changes in the climate around the Arctic: In the Barents and Kara seas north of Russia and Scandinavia, the waters have warmed and ice has melted, whereas in Siberia, there’s been a cooling trend from increases in snowfall induced by climate change.

Record levels of snowfall in Japan leave 17 dead and 90 people injured, report says - Record levels of snowfall in Japan have left at least 17 dead and 90 people injured according to disaster management officials, the Associated Press reported. Much of the country's northern and western regions have seen persistent heavy snow in recent days, stranding hundreds of vehicles on highways, delaying delivery and public transport services, and leaving thousands of homes without power, the outlet reported. The scope of the winter storm has been unprecedented, with some parts of northeastern Japan reporting three times their average snowfall for the season. The Associated Press reported that officials said Monday that 17 people have died, some of whom had fallen while removing snow from the roofs. The officials urged residents not to remove snow from vehicles and roofs on their own due to safety concerns, the outlet reported. One elderly woman in Nagai City — an area located around 300 kilometers (180 miles) north of Tokyo — was found dead buried underneath a pile of snow that suddenly fell on her from her roof, AP reported. Snow in the area had piled up to higher than 80 centimeters (2.6 feet) over the weekend. Heavy snow also knocked down an electric power transmission tower in Japan's northern region, leaving about 20,000 homes without power on Christmas morning, the outlet reported. Electricity has since been restored and the heavy snowfall is expected to ease from Monday. Japan is not the only country struggling with snowfall this winter. At least 38 deaths have now been linked to severe snow storms battering the US and Canada in recent days, the BBC reported Monday. The storms have also heavily disrupted travel over the holiday weekend and left thousands of people without electricity. Officials have urged people to stay home, calling the storms a "very dangerous life-threatening situation," the BBC reported.

2 people missing after landslide destroys a cluster of homes in Yamagata, Japan - A damaging landslide destroyed about a dozen homes in northern Japan’s Yamagata Prefecture on December 31, 2022, leaving at least 2 people missing. The slide took place early Saturday morning in the Tsuruoka city of Yamagata Prefecture, crashing into a cluster of homes and triggering a rescue operation involving 80 firefighters and police officers. Two people have been rescued and there are fears more residents might be trapped under the rubble. Yamagata prefectural police said the slide took place at about 01:00 LT, hitting about 10 buildings. “The collapsed mountain contains red clay and fine sand,” said a 68-year-old man, whose parents live in a village about 500 m [1 640 feet] from the site. “I’ve never heard of the mountain collapsing on this scale before.”1 A man who went to the site before 02:00 LT told NHK that multiple buildings in a residential area had been hit. He said an occupied house appeared to have been inundated with debris.2 Search and rescue operation is underway.

Reykjavík records coldest temperature since 1918, Iceland - Temperatures in Viðidalur, Reykjavík, Iceland dropped to -23 °C (-9 °F) on December 28, 2022, marking the lowest temperature registered in the capital since 1918. “It’s not uncommon to see such temperatures in so-called cold bubbles, like in Viðidalur. But in truth, it did not sustain this low for very long. It’s letting up now, but could just as easily become even colder with no wind,” said climate historian Sigurður Þór Guðjónsson.1 The temperatures were quite different elsewhere in the capital area, with Seltjarnarnes, for example, recording only -4 °C (24.8 °F).2 The weather station in Viðidalur has been in operation for several years and has measured some of Reykjavík’s coldest temperatures since it came into use.

Destructive flash floods hit Mecca, Saudi Arabia - - Heavy overnight rains hit the city of Mecca, Saudi Arabia on December 23, 2022, damaging properties and buildings. The event comes just one month after the city of Jeddah, Mecca Province witnessed record rainfall.The floods turned roads into raging rivers, damaging properties and sweeping away vehicles. There are no reports of deaths or injuries.A number of weather warnings were issued across several regions and the country’s weather authorities urged the public to take precautions as more rain was expected on Saturday, December 24.¹ The National Center of Meteorology issued an alert for the western city of Madinah and its surrounding governorates, with forecasts of thunderstorms accompanied by heavy and torrential rain, surface winds, hail, and lack of visibility. Moderate to heavy rainfall was also recorded in Jeddah, Qassim, Al-Jawf, Taif, Al-Wajh, Yanbu, Tabuk, Arar, Hail, Al-Baha and Makkah. The city of Jeddah, Mecca Province recorded 179 mm (7 inches) of rain in 24 hours on November 24, breaking the previous rainfall record set in 2009 at 90 mm (3.5 inches) when more than 120 people lost their lives.

Heavy rainfall and rare winter hailstorm hit Kuwait – (videos) Heavy rainfall and a rare winter hailstorm hit Kuwait on December 27, 2022, bringing joy to people used to the hot arid climate. According to Muhammad Karam, a former director of Kuwait’s meteorological department, the country hasn’t seen so much hail during the winter in 15 years.1 Kuwait registered up to 63 mm (2.48 inches) of rain from December 27 to 28 when the weather started clearing up. There were reports of snow also, but it could have been merely a combination of rain and hail which looked like snow in the pictures circulating widely on social media.

Philippines reports at least eight deaths as rains, floods disrupt Christmas celebrations (Reuters) - Philippine authorities on Monday reported at least eight deaths mostly due to floods triggered by heavy rains in the southern provinces, as Christmas celebrations were disrupted for thousands of residents who were forced to evacuate. Images on social media showed rescue workers helping residents out of chest-deep flood waters caused by two days of moderate to heavy rainfall in central and southern Philippines. In its latest bulletin, the national disaster agency reported eight casualties, five of whom died from drowning, while 19 were missing. Of the eight deaths, six were in the mountainous and coastal Misamis Occidental province. Nearly 46,000 people were sheltering in evacuation centres, data from the social welfare ministry showed on Monday. "We need food. Our house and animals were carried away by floods," Estela Talaruc, a Misamis Occidental resident, told DZRH radio station. "Nothing was left, not even clothes." The Philippines, an archipelago of more than 7,600 islands, sees an average of 20 tropical storms annually. The Southeast Asian nation is also hit by adverse weather conditions like monsoon rains that cause deadly landslides and floods, and damage crops.

An El Nino event has emerged in the Forecast for 2023, while the Cold La Nina impacts this Winter weather season for the final time » The National Weather Service says there’s a 50/50 chance the La Niña sea surface warming in the western Pacific will continue through March. But odds are about 70% we’ll return to normal conditions after April. That will round out a rare three La Niña winters in a row, which generally produce a warm, often-dry winter in Arizona.The NWS figures we’re likely to slip back into drought in most of Arizona between now and March 31. The northern and western edges of the state never straggled out of drought. Most of Arizona — including Rim Country and the White Mountains — will most likely get less than half the normal amount of rain between now and March, according to the NWS.The whole state will also likely record temperatures 33% to 60% above normal, according to the forecast.So we can tack another year onto the worst southwestern drought in more than a millenium — extending the region’s water crisis. The reservoirs on the Colorado River — especially Lake Mead and Lake Powell — are dwindling toward deadpool.So far, the average temperatures in the White Mountains and Rim Country have remained a couple of degrees above normal — in line with the predictions. A couple of winter storms have kept the drought at bay — at least for the moment. Roosevelt Lake is still 63% full. The Salt River early last week was flowing at 195% of normal, Tonto Creek at Roosevelt at 132% of normal and the Verde River at 92% of normal. So inflow to the Salt River Project’s reservoirs on the Salt and Verde rivers is still 139% of normal. The C.C. Cragin Reservoir remains at about 30% full — which is a little worrisome. The reservoir provides 3,000 acre-feet annually to Payson and 11,000 acre-feet annually to SRP. But two months after SRP shut off the pumps — it’s only got 4,434 acre-feet in storage. However, the 64,000-acre watershed remains one of the most productive in the state — so a couple of big winter storms in January or February could refill the reservoir — resulting in another year of water deliveries. Even so, the Salt and Verde watersheds have so far enjoyed slightly wetter conditions this winter than originally predicted.

The forecast for 2023 is hot - The Verge - 2023 is forecast to be a hotter year than 2022, according to the UK’s Met Office weather service. Why? Well, an unusual three-year-long weather pattern that typically has a cooling effect on our planet should finally come to an end next year. On top of that, global average temperatures are expected to rise as greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb.As a result, the Met Office predicts 2023 will be one of the hottest years on record. That’s no surprise, considering the last eight years are on track to be the eight hottest on the books, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).  The Met Office predicts 2023 will be one of the hottest years on record. Next year is expected to mark 10 consecutive years with global average temperatures at least 1 degree Celsius higher than the average during the preindustrial period. Earth’s average temperature in 2023 is forecast to be between 1.08 and 1.32 degrees Celsius higher than it was before about 1900, when humans started burning fossil fuels more ferociously.   A degree hotter might not seem like much, especially as much of the US emerges from a frigid winter storm. But that kind of change on a global scale has already triggered catastrophic climate effects. Plus, it’s an average for the entire planet — some regions have been hit much harder by climate change than others.. “One third of Pakistan was flooded, with major economic losses and human casualties. Record breaking heatwaves have been observed in China, Europe, North and South America. The long-lasting drought in the Horn of Africa threatens a humanitarian catastophe.” The Horn of Africa, in particular, has had to cope with a double-whammy of both climate change and a La Niña weather pattern exacerbating drought. A rare “triple-dip” La Niña has been in play since September 2020. La Niña’s impact varies from region to region — bringing heavier downpours to Australia while robbing eastern Africa of rain. But it generally has a temporary cooling effect on the globe as a whole. After persisting into its third winter, this La Niña will most likely come to a close by April next year.  La Niña is one of the extreme phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) recurring climate pattern. There’s evidence that extreme La Niña and El Niño events could become twice as frequent with higher global temperatures. That risky outcome — and others, like more severe flooding and heatwaves — could be avoided if humans successfully limit global warming below about 1.5 degrees Celsius, a goal of the Paris climate agreement. But as the global forecast for 2023 shows, we don’t have much wiggle room left.

Depletion of groundwater is accelerating in California's Central Valley, study finds -Scientists have discovered that the pace of groundwater depletion in California's Central Valley has accelerated dramatically during the drought as heavy agricultural pumping has drawn down aquifer levels to new lows and now threatens to devastate the underground water reserves. The research shows that chronic declines in groundwater levels, which have plagued the Central Valley for decades, have worsened significantly in recent years, with particularly rapid declines occurring since 2019. "We have a full-on crisis," said Jay Famiglietti, a hydrology professor and executive director of the University of Saskatchewan's Global Institute for Water Security. "California's groundwater, and groundwater across the southwestern U.S., is disappearing much faster than most people realize." Famiglietti and other scientists found in their study, which was published this month in the journal Nature Communications, that since 2019, the rate of groundwater depletion has been 31% greater than during the last two droughts. They also found that groundwater losses in the Central Valley since 2003 have totaled approximately 36 million acre-feet, or about 1.3 times the full water-storing capacity of Lake Mead near Las Vegas, the country's largest reservoir. "The trajectory we're on right now is one for 100% disappearance," Famiglietti said. "This is the water for the future generations. And it's disappearing." California's historic Sustainable Groundwater Management Act was passed in 2014 with the intent of curbing overpumping and stabilizing aquifer levels. But the law, known as SGMA, gives many local agencies until 2040 to achieve sustainability goals. Famiglietti said the findings indicate that timeline may be far too long, pointing to a need to speed up implementation of regulation under the law. The current pace of groundwater losses is now nearly five times faster than the long-term average since the 1960s. "We are seeing what appears to be a rush to pump as much groundwater as possible before new restrictions take hold," Famiglietti said. "My fear is that by the time SGMA is fully implemented, it will be too late. There will be nothing left to manage."

Uneven wetting under climate change is causing diverse variations in the thawing of frozen ground on the Tibetan Plateau -- The Tibetan Plateau has experienced prominent warming and wetting since the mid-1990s that has altered the thermal and hydrological properties of its frozen ground. In a new study, published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, scientists used the Community Land Surface Model to uncover that the dual effect of this wetting and the projected increase in precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau in the future is becoming a critical factor in determining the thermodynamics of the frozen ground. The lead author of the study, Dr. Xuewei Fang from the School of Atmospheric Sciences at Chengdu University of Information Technology in China, explains that, "In the face of the greatest increase in the occurrence frequency of heavy precipitation over the entire Tibetan Plateau, we need to address how warming and wetting might be jointly influencing the thermal responses of the permafrost and seasonally frozen ground to climate change."Dr. Fang and her colleagues used the average annual precipitation as a criterion to divide the Tibetan Plateau into an arid zone (annual precipitation: < 200 mm), a semi-arid zone (annual precipitation: 200–400 mm), a semi-humid zone (annual precipitation: 400–800 mm), and a humid zone (annual precipitation: > 800 mm).Results showed that, compared with 1961–1990, the average annual air temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau during 1991–2010 increased by 0.72℃ and 75.64 mm, respectively. Spatially, the arid and semi-arid zones became warmer and wetter, while the humid and semi-humid zones became warmer but drier.The team also compared the freezing and thawing durations of the ground surface in the two periods, and found that the wetting in drier regions before the 1990s prolonged the duration of freezing of the frozen ground and that the continuously wetting after the 1990s reduced the thawing period. This implies that the substantial wetting in arid areas has exerted the opposite warming effect on the permafrost body since the 1990s, with the permafrost area having shrunk by 28%.This finding lies in contrast to the frozen ground presented in wetter regions, i.e., the decline in precipitation in the humid zones has prolonged the thawing duration in seasonally frozen ground significantly since the start of the 1990s. A drying and warming environment tends to enhance heat loss at the ground surface, thereby decreasing the heat supply for the melting of ice and extending the thawing process.

South Asian black carbon causes glacier loss on Tibetan Plateau - Black carbon aerosol is the product of incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass, and has strong light absorption. Black carbon deposition in snow ice reduces the albedo of the snow ice surface, accelerating the melting of glaciers and snow cover, and thus changing the hydrological process and water resources in the region. The South Asia region adjacent to the Tibetan Plateau is one of the regions with high black carbon emission in the world. Black carbon aerosol from South Asia can transport across the Himalayan Mountains to the inland region of the Tibetan Plateau. Recently, a joint research team analyzed the influence of black carbon aerosols on regional precipitation and glaciers over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Their findings were published in Nature Communications on Nov. 30. The researchers found that since the 21st century, the South Asian black carbon aerosols have indirectly affected the material supply of the Tibetan Plateau glaciers by changing water vapor transport in the South Asian monsoon. "Black carbon aerosols in South Asia heat up the middle and upper atmosphere, thus increasing the north-south temperature gradient," said Prof. Kang. "Accordingly, the convective activity in South Asia is enhanced, which causes convergence of water vapor in South Asia. Meanwhile, black carbon also increases the number of cloud condensation nuclei in the atmosphere." These changes in meteorological conditions caused by black carbon aerosols make more water vapor form precipitation in South Asia, and less water vapor transmit to the Tibetan Plateau. As a result, precipitation in the central and southern Tibetan Plateau decreases during monsoon, especially in the southern part of the Tibetan Plateau. The decrease of precipitation further leads to the decrease of material supply of glaciers. From 2007 to 2016, the reduced material supply accounted for 11.0% of the average glacier material loss on the Tibetan Plateau and 22.1% in the southern part of the plateau.

 Asteroid 2022 YA6 flew past Earth at 0.3 LD - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2022 YA6 flew past Earth at a distance of 0.369 LD / 0.00095 AU (141 711 km / 88 055 miles) at 07:59 UTC on December 26, 2022. This is the 123rd known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year and the 10th during the month of December. 2022 YA6 was first observed at Catalina Sky Survey, Arizona on December 27, 2022 — one day after it made its close approach to our planet. It belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 7.2 and 16 m (23.6 – 52.5 feet).

'How dare you?!' Humiliated Andrew Tate snaps back at Greta Thunberg after teenage eco-warrior says the Big Brother contestant-turned-influencer has 'small d*** energy' and should 'get a life' in savage putdown-- Andrew Tate has snapped back after being savagely put down by teenage climate change activist Greta Thunberg for his 'small d**k energy' after he trolled her online, asking her: 'How dare you?!'  Social media motor-mouth Tate, who was recently banned from YouTube, Instagram, Facebook and TikTok over his 'toxic' comments against women, attempted to mock the Swedish 19-year-old on Twitter.  Miss Thunberg rose to fame at the age of 15 for her work to combat the global 'climate emergency' and has met a number of world leaders.But on Tuesday, 36-year-old kickboxing world champion and ex-Big Brother star Tate trolled the teenager for her environmental activism – in a move that appears to have backfired spectacularly.  Taking to Twitter, he shared a photo of himself fueling up his Bugatti supercar and asking her to send him an email address so he could detail the 'enormous emissions' his gas-guzzling performance cars spewed out. 'Hello Greta Thunberg. I have 33 cars. My Bugatti has a w16 8.0L quad-turbo. My TWO Ferrari 812 competizione have 6.5L v12s. This is just the start. Please provide your email address so I can send a complete list of my car collection and its enormous emissions,' boasted the social media star.   Miss Thunberg today issued a brutal comeback in a tweet to her 4.9million followers, saying: 'Yes, please do enlighten me. email me at smalld***energy@getalife.com.'  The teenager's quick-witted response sparked a social media storm, going viral within minutes – and garnering support from fans online.  During his attack on the teenager, Tate also shared a video of Greta speaking at the United Nations where she famously blasted world leaders by telling them 'this is all wrong. I shouldn't be up here'.  But the clip had been edited and featured shots of Tate driving his supercars and boarding private jets.  At around 12.30pm this afternoon, Tate snapped back at Miss Thunberg with the furious response: 'How dare you?!' Notable comic book writer Mark Russell commented on the war of words, saying Tate's response was: 'Actually not a bad comeback for someone who's been hit that many times in the head.'

Geoengineering Startup Begins Releasing Sulfur Particles Into Atmosphere In Attempt To 'Stop Climate Change' - A startup is launching weather balloons capable of releasing reflective sulfur particles into the earth’s atmosphere, with the stated aim of combating climate change through solar geoengineering, while disregarding the negative consequences of such actions.  In solar geoengineering, attempts are made to manipulate the climate by reflecting more sunlight away from earth. Theoretically, releasing sulfur and other such compounds is believed to potentially cool down the planet. Back in 1991, for example, when Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted, it released large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere that spread around the world and triggered a 1-degree Fahrenheit cooling for the next 15 months. The California-based startup, Make Sunsets, is believed to have launched the weather balloons from Mexico. In an interview with MIT Technology Review, Make Sunsets CEO Luke Iseman said that he expects to be characterized as a “Bond villain” for what the company is doing. But he insists that climate change is a threat, and that since the world is moving slowly to address the problem, a more radical solution is needed. “It’s morally wrong, in my opinion, for us not to be doing this,” Iseman said. What’s important is “to do this as quickly and safely as we can.”  Make Sunsets is attempting to make revenue out of its efforts, seeking to sell $10 “cooling credits” for releasing a gram of particles into the atmosphere. The startup has raised $750,000 in funding. It plans on raising the sulfur payload in the future as well as using telemetry devices and other sensors.In an interview with MIT, Shuchi Talati, a scholar-in-residence at American University, says that Make Sunset’s actions could end up negatively affecting scientific study on the matter, even leading to reduced funding, boosting calls for restricting such studies, and decreasing government support for it.

Biden’s offshore wind project faces setbacks as regulators delay project  — Shell New Energies, EDP Renewables and Engie asked regulators for a delay in the planning of a proposed joint-venture offshore wind farm. This is the latest potential setback to President Joe Biden’s goal of powering millions of homes from Atlantic gusts. The goal to power 10 million homes by 2030 with offshore wind looks to be at risk as developers face challenges including inflation, supply chain woes and rising interest rates. The sharp spike in interest rates presents “significant challenges” to Mayflower Wind’s economics, the project’s lawyers said in a filing with Massachusetts regulators on Friday. They asked regulators for time to hold discussions with local utilities and other parties before approving contracts for the sale of the electricity the project would generate. New England utility Avangrid Inc. asked regulators this month to cancel the power purchase agreements it made with utilities for a large wind farm it’s building. And New Jersey utility Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. said in October it’s deciding whether to pull out of its stake in another offshore wind farm in the Atlantic Ocean.

Biden's dilemma: How do you define 'green' hydrogen? - - The Treasury Department is weighing new requirements for “green” hydrogen producers, creating schisms among energy groups about how to ensure the fuel is a low-carbon resource. Green hydrogen production involves extracting the fuel from water molecules using renewable electricity in a process that doesn’t emit carbon. The climate law sought to encourage that by offering tax credits to hydrogen producers that manage to zero out their carbon emissions, rather than just paring them back. Yet some prospective producers of hydrogen want to bend the definition of “green,” say analysts. Instead of building their own wind or solar facilities and drawing power directly from those projects on-site, some producers hope to use grid electricity — including electricity from coal or gas — while buying renewable energy certificates or other offsets so hydrogen can qualify as clean under the law. Now, Treasury is expected to release guidance that could set conditions for hydrogen developers hoping to use offsets while claiming clean hydrogen tax credits. “It’s the most important question for how the [clean hydrogen] tax credit is implemented,” said Matt Bravante, an analyst at BloombergNEF. “What’s going to be allowed?” The outcome could have deep implications for hydrogen’s credibility as a climate tool. It also could set an important baseline, as green hydrogen currently is rarely produced in the U.S. but is expected to grow rapidly in coming years.

3 power substations vandalized in Washington state, over 14K lost power --The search continued Monday for vandals who targeted four power substations on Christmas Day in Pierce County, Washington, setting fire to at least one of the facilities and knocking out power to more than 14,000 utility customers, authorities said.Two of the break-ins were at Tacoma Public Utilities substations and two others were at a Puget Sound Energy station, according to the sheriff's office in Pierce County, which encompasses Tacoma. No arrests have been announced. The vandalism came amid a string of similar sabotage incidents across the country, including several in the Northwest, and follows a bulletin issued last month by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security warning that critical infrastructure could be among the targets of possible attacks by "lone offenders and small groups motivated by a range of ideological beliefs and/or personal grievances." "It is unknown if there are any motives or if this was a coordinated attack on the power systems," the Pierce County Sheriff's Office said in a statement. The substation attacks unfolded Sunday between 2:39 a.m. and 7:21 p.m. local time, authorities said. In all four episodes, the saboteurs broke into the fenced-off power stations and deliberately damaged equipment, according to the sheriff's office. Officials initially said three power stations were vandalized, but early Monday morning they said a fourth substation was damaged in a deliberately caused fire near the city of Graham, cutting power to homes in Kapowsin and Graham. "The suspect(s) gained access to the fenced area and vandalized the equipment which caused the fire," the sheriff's office said in a statement. "All law enforcement agencies in the county have been notified of the incidents and will be monitoring power substations in their area."

Can the California grid handle a gas phaseout? - As California focuses on electrifying residential and commercial buildings as part of its goal of becoming a zero-carbon economy by 2045, the state is facing questions about its ability to handle rising electricity demand. An updated building code taking effect on Jan. 1, along with a variety of new incentives, will move the state’s homes and businesses away from gas-fired appliances in favor of electric stoves, heat pumps and water heaters. It’s a way to address a sector accounting for roughly 25 percent of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions, even as the flood of new appliances could add stress to the state’s already taxed electric grid. At the same time, a controversial new rule passed last week will slash incentives offered to homeowners who install rooftop solar systems, leading to concerns that California could lose out on new solar at a time when the grid needs it most. State officials, however, say, that policies seemingly working against each other are, in fact, meant to usher in a unified clean energy future for the state. In a statement, commissioner Clifford Rechtschaffen said the solar policy “strikes the right balance between many competing priorities and advances our overarching goals of ensuring California meets its climate and clean energy goals equitably.” Here are five questions answered about where California’s policies to phase out gas are headed next: How does California want to use buildings to meet its clean energy goals?

• How does California want to use buildings to meet its clean energy goals? A new scoping plan approved by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) last week laid out a nation-leading pathway for the state to become zero-carbon by 2045 and cut greenhouse gas emissions 85 percent by 2045, compared to 1990 levels (Energywire, Dec. 16)
• What does that mean for the grid? Those measures are intended to get rid of natural gas in homes and businesses, while also encouraging them to use more efficient appliances that could reduce a household’s electricity use. But they also come with a clear side effect, said Duncan Callaway, an associate professor of energy and resources at the University of California, Berkeley: the potential for higher electricity demand.
• Why is the state cutting solar incentives that could boost the grid? The effects of the electrification push could be lessened by having more homeowners produce their own power, which would by nature reduce the demand on the overall grid. But the new net metering rules passed last week seemed to make that prospect less likely.
• Are batteries the answer? The CPUC has defended the new solar program as a way to move away from compensating any solar investment to rewarding people for displacing dirty fossil fuel generation on the grid. Because of the state’s success in deploying solar and bringing other renewable resources on the grid, the state relies less on fossil fuel generation during the day. But when the sun goes down or during periods of extreme demand, the state must fire up natural gas plants.
• How much will solar decline, and will the climate law change that? The solar industry has opposed lowering the net metering incentives because they say any reduction in benefits will make consumers less likely to install new panels at a time when the state should be encouraging them.

Germany Returns To Coal As Energy Security Trumps Climate Goals |- Germany is set to boost its reliance on coal as it battles an unprecedented energy crisis — even at the expense of its ambitious climate goals. Europe’s largest economy is burning the fossil fuel for electricity at the fastest pace in at least six years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It’s also poised to be one of the few nations to increase coal imports next year. On Thursday, utility Uniper SE said it would extend commercial operations of two of its coal-fired plants in Germany until March 2024 at the latest, to conserve natural gas in the coming winters. Across the globe, highly polluting — and relatively cheap — coal is making a comeback as countries seek to prevent soaring energy costs from triggering an economic meltdown. In Europe, the crisis is acute, after Russia curbed gas supplies in the fallout of its war in Ukraine. Germany is now trying to balance the short-term priority of bolstering energy security with the longer-term goal of net-zero emissions by 2045. “Everyone is keeping their climate targets, but it’s true that when you face the dilemma to keep the lights on or decrease carbon emissions, the choice is to keep the lights on,” said Carlos Fernandez Alvarez, the acting head of gas, coal, and power at the International Energy Agency. Germany plans to phase out coal use by 2038, but the ruling coalition is pushing for an even earlier target of 2030. To weather the current crisis, the country has temporarily brought back some plants that were offline. In most countries, a limited amount of capacity is returning to service. “Only in Germany, with 10 gigawatts, is the reversal at a significant scale,” the IEA said in a report. That’s enough to power about 5 million homes, according to Bloomberg estimates. Germany now generates more than a third of its electricity from coal-fired power plants, according to Destatis, the federal statistical office. In the third quarter, its electricity from the fuel was 13.3% higher than the same period a year earlier, the agency said.

Opinion: Politicians have put interests of oil, gas industries before Ohioans, parks - by Randi Pokladnik --  The Ohio House and Senate recently passed the Amended HB 507 bill. The bill was originally intended to address poultry sales and food safety; however, at the last minute an amendment (134-3853) was added to HB 507 in the Senate. Basically, the amendment will force state agencies to open their land to oil and gas drilling with no exceptions. The amendment creates an atmosphere where citizens are basically locked out of any public review process and refused the ability to make comments on the leasing process. It by-passes any considerations of impacts to the environment and recreation.  Pre-19th century, Ohio was 95 percent forested. Today, only 30 percent of forested land remains (8 million acres) and only 11 percent is owned by state and local governments. The Ohio State Park system encompasses about 170,000 acres of land and more than 31 million visitors come to Ohio parks each year.   For many people, both in and out of the state, state parks and forests remain a sanctuary; a place for them to escape their hectic lives and find the peace that nature offers. It also provides a space for recreating, bird watching, fishing, hunting, hiking, canoeing and biking. Additionally, a study by Ohio State University determined that outdoor recreationalists’ trips bring in $8.1 billion to Ohio’s economy and the sector employs 133,000 workers.   Fracking and all the build-out that this industry requires will dramatically change the landscape of Ohio’s parks and forests. Who wants to hike through a park with frack pads and fracking infrastructure? Who wants to ingest wild game and fish taken from areas where fracking is occurring? Since 2005, and the passage of the Energy Policy Act, also known as the Haliburton Loophole, fracking remains virtually unregulated.Who will guarantee that every stage of the process will be conducted in a way so as not to disrupt the state lands that supposedly belong to Ohio’s citizens? A study in West Virginia showed forest ecosystems are negatively affected by forest clearing, erosion, and road building during fracking. Vegetation death was also noted after frack fluids were sprayed on the surrounding trees. Peer reviewed studies show that watersheds surrounding frack well pads test positive for the radioactive substances found in frack waste water, which consists of fracturing fluid and salts, heavy metals, hydrocarbons, and radioactive material accumulated from natural underground sources. Fracking well pads and infrastructure will require clearing areas (cutting trees and vegetation).This will require areas of anywhere from four to 25 acres. Not only will this fragment the forest it will cause other effects that to date are still not clearly understood or studied. This includes additional fragmentation that could affect plant reproduction. Fracking can also introduce and encourage the spread of invasive species via the gravel delivered to build pads and roads, and in mud on the tires and undercarriages of trucks traveling those roads.  Traffic in the region will increase tremendously, becoming a maintenance burden on roads, and also a hazard to local citizens and visitors. Each well drilled requires approximately 592 one-way trips, with a truck that carries between 80,000 pounds and 100,000 pounds. The traffic from the development of one well is equivalent to 3.4 million car trips.  The process of high-pressure hydraulic fracking necessitates the use of 4 million to 6 million gallons of water per well. This surface water will no doubt be withdrawn from the local streams, resulting in harm to aquatic organisms. Fracking fluids contain chemical additives, e.g. friction reducers, biocides and surfactants, many of which are known carcinogens and endocrine disruptors. Very little is known about the potential effects of the chemicals, metals, organics or other contaminants once they enter terrestrial or aquatic food webs.   Fracking operations release fugitive methane emissions and are much higher than the industry reports. Methane gas is about 86 times as potent as carbon dioxide in magnifying heat related to climate change. The aesthetic beauty as well as biodiversity of the forest will be impacted by allowing fossil fuel companies to frack the landscape.  Once again, Ohio’s politicians place the interests of the oil and gas industry ahead of Ohio’s citizens.

New Utica Drilling Permits Increase in 2022 - Business Journal Daily -  – The number of new drilling permits issued to oil and gas companies exploring the Utica/Point Pleasant shale formation in Columbiana County increased substantially in 2022 compared with the previous two years, records show. The Ohio Department of…

Enbridge resolves unplanned outages on its Texas Eastern gas line -    (Reuters) - Enbridge Inc's Texas Eastern gas pipeline system on Wednesday lifted a force majeure event on its Lebanon Compressor Station in Ohio following a series of unplanned outages last week, the company posted on its website. The pipeline system experienced similar outages at its Five Points, Ohio and Armagh, Pennsylvania compressor stations last week, which have now been resolved. An Operational Flow Order (OFO) for all market area zones issued on Dec. 23 has been lifted as well, as per the latest notice. The 8,580 mile-long pipeline system connects Texas and the Gulf Coast to markets in the northeastern United States and can transport 12.04 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day, according to the Enbridge website.

Inside the 14-year battle to secure a water line for fracking’s ‘Ground Zero’ in Pa. - Victoria Switzer could not have predicted that she would be standing beside Pennsylvania Gov.-elect Josh Shapiro to celebrate a natural gas company’s acceptance of legal responsibility for environmental crimes in her neighborhood. But that’s what she did on Nov. 29, just minutes after Coterra Energy Inc. pleaded no contest to criminal charges in the fracking-related water pollution crisis in her community going back more than a decade. The company moved in here more than a decade ago and its natural gas drilling was first tied to methane pollution in residents’ water wells in 2009; some still do not have easy access to potable water, residents and scientists tell Capital & Main.  As part of the plea bargain — which the attorney general’s office shared with Dimock residents a week prior to the hearing — the company will pay $16.29 million to drill a series of clean water wells and a water line connecting Dimock homes to this supply. The company will also give each affected household $58,000 to cover its water bills for the next 75 years and, during the estimated three- to four-year construction period, water treatment systems or bottled water while the households await the water line.  “I think it’s the best we could have asked for,” Switzer told Capital and Main on Nov. 30, the morning after the hearing. A 19-year resident of an area once considered “ground zero” in the fight against fracking, Switzer and her husband moved here in the early aughts and built their home from the ground up. She hasn’t ingested her well water since 2009. The outcome of the plea agreement is welcome news. The November plea hearing lasted no more than 30 minutes in all — a swift resolution to a 14-year struggle for clean water and a two-and-a-half-year wait for residents who were promised justice by Shapiro in June 2020 when, as the state’s attorney general, he charged the company with nine felonies and six misdemeanors after methane escaped from its natural gas wells into nearby private water supplies.. For years, residents felt twice-cursed: They lacked easy access to clean water since their water pipes were polluted due to fracking activity by Coterra, the fourth-largest gas-producing company in the state, which then resisted paying for a municipal water line when the plan was initially introduced, according to interviews and documents shared with Capital and Main.  And while a water line cannot undo the environmental damage caused by natural gas drilling, for some residents it would  eliminate the hassle of making lengthy treks every few days just to access clean water.  The saga began back in 2006, when Cabot land men arrived and knocked on the doors of Dimock residents to ask about signing leases to the mineral rights beneath their properties.

U.S. Natural Gas Production Plunges As Winter Storm Wreaks Havoc - Natural gas output in the Appalachia region, the top gas-producing basin in the U.S., dropped by a record amount as Winter Storm Elliott swept through Pennsylvania and Ohio, freezing wells and some equipment and creating mechanical issues at pipeline infrastructure. The Appalachia basin saw natural gas supply drop by 27%, or by 9 billion cubic feet, compared to the typical levels, according to estimates by BloombergNEF based on pipeline flows. The decline was the steepest on record in data since 2013, Bloomberg notes. In Pennsylvania, natural gas production fell by more than 20%, due to well freeze-offs. In Ohio, output more than halved, according to Bloomberg’s estimates. Winter Storm Elliott cut off the power supply to millions of households and disrupted Christmas travel plans for millions more as thousands of flights were canceled. Just ahead of the Christmas holiday weekend, almost 250 million U.S. and Canadian residents were affected by the storm in one way or another, and dozens of people have died. As of Tuesday, December 27, U.S. natural gas production was still significantly below the levels of the past weeks. Early production data, cited by Natural Gas Intelligence, showed that American natural gas output was still around 80-86 Bcf/d, well below the 100 Bcf/d production of the past weeks and months. Several gas pipelines continued to report issues this week, which has further constrained the ability of gas flows to the systems. The plunge in the Appalachia natural gas production exacerbated issues at the grids as lower volumes of gas were sent via pipelines to gas-fired power generation units. This happened just as power demand surged during the storm, straining electricity systems in some areas in the U.S. The Tennessee Valley Authority and Duke Energy implemented rolling blackouts in the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas ahead of Christmas Eve to maintain grid stability.

America's Biggest Gas Producer Sees 30% Output Cut Over Storm -America’s largest natural gas producer, EQT Corp, has experienced a plunge in production up to 30% due to severe cold weather that led to Appalachian Basin well disruption, Bloomberg reports. Speaking to Bloomberg Television on Wednesday, EQT Chief Executive Officer Toby Rice said output fell by between 1 billion and 1.5 billion cubic feet per day amid the extreme cold snap that started last week with a blast of Arctic air and strong winds leading to subzero temperatures affecting an estimated 150 million people. In Q3 2022, EQT was producing around 5 billion cubic feet per day. Rice said output should be restored to normal in the “next couple of days”. The EQT executive is using this loss of production as a public stage for slamming renewable power sources, which he told Bloomberg “didn’t show up”, applauding the natural gas industry’s ability to respond quickly to severe weather conditions and calling for more natural gas pipelines to shore up heating and power supplies. Last month, Rice said in a public statement that increasing natural gas production and building more pipelines was the answer to climate change, global poverty and a host of other problems. Overall, the Appalachian Basin saw natural gas output drop by 9 billion cubic feet–a 27% plunge. According to Bloomberg NEF, that drop was the biggest since 2013. The production drop in the region wreaked havoc on energy grids, which suffered from lower volumes of gas being piped to gas-fired power generation units. Production was most profoundly hit in Ohio, which experienced a nearly 50% output drop as Winter Storm Elliott raged through both Ohio and Pennsylvania, which saw a 20% decline in output. On Tuesday, Natural Gas Intelligence said that early production data showed that U.S. output was around 80-86 billion cubic feet per day, far below the trend of around 100 billion cubic feet per day over the past months.

U.S. Exports Bounce Back After Winter Storm Upends Natural Gas Flows – LNG Recap -  U.S. LNG export demand fell by about 5 Bcf/d heading into the holiday weekend as a brutal winter storm settled in over much of the country and impacted terminal operations. The storm brought high winds, rain, snow and freezing temperatures that cut into natural gas supply, slowed deliveries on interstate pipeline systems and halted vessel traffic along the Gulf Coast.  NGI’s U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas Export Tracker showed feed gas volumes dipped from a high of 13.81 Bcf/d early last week to just 9.29 Bcf on Friday. Vessel traffic stopped Friday on waterways serving the Calcasieu Pass, Cameron, Corpus Christi and Sabine Pass LNG terminals in Texas and Louisiana. It’s since resumed and feed gas deliveries have steadily climbed upward, with volumes nominated at 12.67 Bcf on Tuesday.  The storm’s impacts are still lingering, however. Moran Shipping Agencies Inc. warned of high winds along the Sabine-Neches waterway through Friday (Dec. 30) that could interrupt pilot service.  The Cameron Interstate Pipeline, which delivers about half of Cameron LNG’s feed gas, warned of possible capacity restrictions in the days ahead after equipment failure on a compressor station last Friday that’s expected to be out of service for a week.EBW Analytics Group said U.S.  natural gas production freeze-offs surpassed 15 Bcf/d over the weekend, or more than triple pre-storm projections. “The long holiday weekend enabled the natural gas market to sidestep tremendous price volatility and enabled a subdued post-holiday opening amid clashing mixed signals,”

INPEX enters 20-year purchase agreement with Venture Global for 1.1 million tons of LNG per year — On Dec. 27, Venture Global LNG and INPEX Corporation announced the execution of a long-term sales and purchase agreement for the purchase of 1.1 million tons of liquified natural gas per year for 20 years. Under the agreement, INPEX Energy Trading Singapore Pte. Ltd., a Singapore-based subsidiary of INPEX, will purchase 1.1 million tons per year of LNG from CP2 LNG, Venture Global's third project. The project is expected to commence construction in 2023. INPEX joins other CP2 LNG customers including ExxonMobil, Chevron, EnBW and New Fortress Energy. "Venture Global is delighted to welcome INPEX, Japan's largest gas exploration and production company, as a customer at CP2 and expand our customer base in Asia," said Venture Global CEO Mike Sabel. "This agreement will enable the INPEX Group to procure LNG from the United States on a long-term basis, expand its LNG supply capacity, and diversify its supply sources to further contribute to the stable supply of energy," said Hiroshi Kato, Executive Officer and Senior Vice President of Global Energy Marketing at INPEX.

No Holiday Break for Asian Buyers Lining Up LNG Supply -  Asia-based LNG buyers announced a trio of offtake agreements to start the post-Christmas week, reflecting intense competition for natural gas molecules in a tightly supplied global market.  Venture Global LNG Inc. said Monday it has secured a long-term deal to supply liquefied natural gas to a Singapore-based subsidiary of Japan’s Inpex Corp. from Venture’s planned CP2 export project in Louisiana. Under the 20-year sales and purchase agreement (SPA), Inpex Energy Trading Singapore Pte. Ltd. would purchase one million metric tons/year (mmty) of LNG from CP2. The project, which entails an expansion of Venture’s Calcasieu Pass terminal, is slated to begin construction in 2023.Other CP2 offtakers include ExxonMobil, Chevron Corp., EnBW AG and New Fortress Energy Inc. CEO Mike Sabel touted Venture’s growing customer base in Asia with newly signed Inpex, Japan’s largest gas exploration and production company. “We are honored to provide security of LNG supply to this key market and look forward to supporting Inpex as it delivers our competitive lower carbon energy to the region.” Calcasieu Pass began producing LNG in January 2022. Venture is developing an additional 60 mmty of liquefaction capacity in Louisiana. The latest SPA “will enable the Inpex Group to procure LNG from the United States on a long-term basis, expand its LNG supply capacity and diversify its supply sources to further contribute to the stable supply of energy,” said Inpex’s Hiroshi Kato, senior vice president of global energy marketing.NextDecade Corp., meanwhile, said Tuesday it is increasing its volume commitment under an SPA with Singapore-based ENN LNG Pte. Ltd. to 2.0 mmty from 1.5 mmty.The supply would come from NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG (RGLNG) export project in Brownsville, TX.Volumes under the 20-year agreement are indexed to Henry Hub and would be supplied from the first three trains at RGLNG on a free-on-board (FOB) basis. NextDecade is aiming to sanction the first three trains of RGLNG during the first quarter of 2023, with sanctioning of the remaining trains to follow thereafter.Finally, Japan’s largest power producer, Jera Co. Inc., said Tuesday it has signed a key term sheet for the sale and purchase of LNG with Oman Liquefied Natural Gas LLC (Oman LNG).Under the agreement, Jera would purchase up to 12 cargoes, or roughly 0.8 mmty annually, from the Oman LNG project for 10 years starting from 2025.

LNG Driving Gulf Coast Infrastructure Investment, Natural Gas ProductionNatural gas production out of the U.S. Gulf Coast should rise over the next decade as it continues to look toward the export market, according to researchers at Louisiana State University’s (LSU) Center for Energy Studies. In the center’s latest Gulf Coast Energy Outlook (GCEO) authors David E. Dismukes and Greg Upton said that in the Gulf Coast “both oil and natural gas production in the region are anticipated to experience a decade of growth despite the fact that oil and natural gas prices are both in backwardation.” Gulf Coast natural gas production is seen increasing to 53 Bcf/d in 2022, up 14% year/year. Gulf Coast natural gas production could then exceed 68 Bcf/d by 2032. This year’s figure would mean more than 50% of U.S. natural gas would be produced in the Gulf Coast. The U.S. Energy Information Administration sees U.S. natural gas production averaging 100.4 Bcf/d next year, backed by growing production in Texas’s prolific Permian Basin and the Haynesville Shale in East Texas and Western Louisiana. The Gulf Coast region refers to the states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama “This year’s GCEO, much like last year’s, anticipates that long-run energy demand growth will lead to increased U.S. energy exports, especially to the growing developing world,” the researchers said. They added that given softening inflation, and strong employment figures, “while a recession might certainly be on the horizon, this is not the GCEO base case.” Natural gas and oil prices could still be pressured higher because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the report said. Meanwhile, the exodus of Western technical knowhow from Russia will dent Russia’s oilfield services sector. “Trade flows have and will likely continue to adjust by substituting Russian products away from some markets toward others.” Overall, Gulf Coast natural gas prices “will likely remain elevated” due to LNG export pressures. “The relevant question today is whether natural gas prices have entered into a new epoch that reflects a greater integration of U.S. natural gas markets to global markets.”

Natural Gas Futures ‘Subdued’ Following Holiday Break as Traders Assess Arctic Storm’s Impacts --Natural gas futures advanced in early trading Tuesday as the market weighed substantial fundamental impacts from recent Arctic weather against a bearish temperature outlook heading into the first week of January. At around 8:40 a.m. ET, January was up 21.5 cents to $5.294/MMBtu. February was up 17.3 cents to $5.153. The long weekend allowed the natural gas market to “sidestep tremendous price volatility,” with traders returning from the break to a “subdued post-holiday opening amid clashing mixed signals,” according to EBW Analytics Group analyst Eli Rubin. The firm observed considerable impacts to both supply and demand coinciding with the recent Arctic blast sweeping through the Lower 48. These included more than 15 Bcf/d of production freeze-offs, well above expectations prior to the start of the intense cold, according to the analyst. This comes as “LNG demand sank 5.0 Bcf/d to keep scarce supplies domestically, and industrial demand appears off by at least 2.0 Bcf/d,” Rubin said. “Near-term price impacts for Nymex futures appear surprisingly muted heading into January options expiry as the market attempts to sort out immediate-term disruptions to both supply and demand — already fading with warming weather — set against a further bearish weather shift and declining threats to system adequacy.” Prior to the Christmas holiday weekend, forecasts had advertised much warmer-than-normal temperatures starting this week and extending through Jan. 6, and models maintained that bearish pattern over the weekend, according to NatGasWeather. Recent weather data put the period on track to be “one of the warmest…of the past 40 years” in terms of projected heating degree day totals nationally, the firm said. “Also, as we were expecting, the weather data forecasts closer to seasonal demand Jan. 8-11 as colder air over Canada advances into the northern U.S., although subject to large changes that far out,” NatGasWeather said. As for near-term price action, the expiration of the January contract and the duration of production impacts from the recent freeze could have a greater influence than forecasts, the firm added.

Natural Gas Futures Prices Edge Higher as Models Tease Mid-January Cold; Production Still Way Down - With natural gas traders still thawing out from the weekend’s Arctic blast, most remained on the sidelines of the action on Tuesday. However, with the potential for cold to return before mid-January and U.S. production sharply lower following widespread freeze-offs, the January Nymex gas futures contract eked out a 20.3-cent gain to settle at $5.282/MMBtu. The February contract climbed 13.8 cents to $5.118. Spot natural gas prices retreated from pre-winter storm highs across several regions of the Lower 48. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. fell $6.570 to $8.745. The impacts of Winter Storm Elliott notwithstanding, trading action was largely subdued after the long holiday weekend. The January contract opened Tuesday’s session at $5.283 but tumbled to a $5.081 intraday low as weather models showed record-setting warmth spreading across the country during the next 12 days. This should bring the lightest demand in more than 40 years, according to NatGasWeather. Production also remains a wildcard. In addition to the impact Elliott had on temperatures and demand, the monstrous winter storm also did a number on supply. Tuesday’s early production data pointed to around 80-86 Bcf/d of output. Though temperatures should continue to climb throughout the week, it’s too early to tell when production may return to the 100-plus Bcf/d levels seen earlier this month.A slew of pipelines continued to report issues on Tuesday, which may limit production’s ability to ramp higher. These included the Algonquin Gas Transmission, Cameron Interstate, Columbia Gas Transmission, Elba Express Co., Northern Border, Rockies Express, Southern Natural Gas Co., Tennessee Gas and Texas Eastern Transmission systems. Florida Gas Transmission also resumed and extended a planned maintenance event that was paused during the cold snap. With comparisons to Winter Storm Uri’s extreme production losses, EBW Analytics Group LLC said the curtailments could reshape the perception of natural gas deliverability. Instead of a one-in-30-year storm, the natural gas market is weathering extreme freeze-offs of 15-plus Bcf/d twice within three winters, the firm pointed out. Including Uri, production freeze-offs of 8 Bcf/d or more have occurred in three consecutive winter seasons.

U.S. natgas futures slide to 9-month low on less cold weather view  (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped to a nine-month low on Wednesday on milder weather forecasts over the next two weeks that could crimp heating demand. On its last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 slipped 57.3 cents, or 10.8%, to settle at $4.709 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), after hitting its lowest level since March 15 at $4.588 earlier in the session. The contract lost 23% last week. "The forecasts are that the weather is going to warm up and then maybe stay warm for (a) period of time ... so the weakness in prices is a reaction to the weather forecast that above normal temperatures (will be) over most of the country," Data provider Refinitiv estimated 327 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, down from 352 HDDs estimated on Tuesday. The normal is 438 HDDs for this time of year. HDDs estimate demand to heat homes and businesses by measuring the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius). Refinitiv projected that average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 139.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) last week to 143.4 bcfd this week before dropping to 111.2 bcfd in the next week with the weather expected to turn mild in early January. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. Gas output was up about 7 bcfd over the past three days in the U.S. Lower 48 states after dropping to 80.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Saturday, its biggest drop in output since the February freeze of 2021. Winter storms over the weekend froze oil and gas wells in Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and elsewhere. U.S. daily demand from the four biggest gas-consuming sectors - residential, commercial, power and industrial - reached an all-time high of 148.5 billion cubic feet (bcf) on Friday, according to Refinitiv data. Europe's gas storage sites were 83.2% full overall, with the region's biggest consumer, Germany, seeing filling levels of 88.2%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data. "Besides the weather factor, the market is being forced to discount a further expected delay in (the) re-opening of Freeport LNG operations amidst reported unresolved regulatory issues," Freeport LNG on Friday said it had delayed restart of its long-shut liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas, this time to the second half of January.

Natural Gas Futures Tumble Again Despite Bullish EIA Storage Data; Cash Sell-Off Continues -  Blowtorch weather seen persisting through at least mid-January trumped what could be one of the largest natural gas storage withdrawals of the winter season. On its first day at the front of the Nymex futures curve, the February contract settled at $4.559/MMBtu, off 12.6 cents from Wednesday’s close. March futures slipped 7.7 cents to $4.117. Spot gas, which traded Thursday for gas delivery through Saturday, continued to move lower amid modest heating demand. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. tumbled $1.355 to $4.715.With folks in Texas ditching the Uggs for shorts and t-shirts, unseasonably strong high pressure was set to expand across the southern and eastern United States the next several days as frigid cold retreated into Canada. Daytime temperatures in the 60s to lower 80s were forecast for the southern states going forward, with highs in the 40s to 60s over the Great Lakes and East. NatGasWeather said this should result in the warmest weather on record for this time of year. The West Coast, meanwhile, should see near-normal temperatures next week as Pacific weather systems bring rain, snow and chilly conditions to the region. However, this is not nearly cold enough to counter warm conditions elsewhere, according to NatGasWeather.  Whether continued weakness in futures prices is warranted is up for debate, but it is noteworthy that the latest government inventory data – which took several analysts by surprise – failed to stop the bleeding in the gas market.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a stunning 213 Bcf withdrawal from storage for the week ending Dec. 23. The triple-digit draw was near the high end of most major surveys, and analysts had indicated prior to the report that predicting the withdrawal would be difficult given that schools were closed, people were home, and yet some businesses were staying open later than usual.The wide range of estimates ahead of the EIA report reflected the uncertainty in how the winter storm would impact the supply/demand balance. A Reuters survey of 11 analysts produced a range of withdrawal estimates from 169 Bcf to 218 Bcf, with a median decrease of 199 Bcf. Bloomberg had a slightly tighter range but also had a median draw of 199 Bcf, while a Wall Street Journal poll averaged a 201 Bcf pull. NGI modeled a 199 Bcf withdrawal.For comparison, 125 Bcf was pulled out of storage in the year-earlier period, while the five-year average draw is 106 Bcf.

No Fireworks for Natural Gas Futures as February Slips Further; Permian Cash at Record Lows -- Natural gas winter futures closed out 2022 lower as record warmth expected through mid-January, along with quickly recovering production in the wake of Winter Storm Elliott, pressured markets. The February Nymex gas futures contract slipped 8.4 cents to $4.475/MMBtu. March slid 1.3 cents to $4.104. Spot gas, which traded Friday for delivery New Year’s Day through Tuesday, generally continued to crumble. Permian Basin cash plunged to record lows of negative $10.000, but big gains out West ultimately lifted NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. 4.5 cents to $4.760. In the aftermath of Elliott’s devastating storm impacts, the gas market has largely shifted its attention to the record warmth that has quickly followed. As important, there have been few signs that cold weather may return, leaving the market awash in supply as demand sinks. On Friday, the market continued to digest the latest government inventory data, which was bullish, but which failed to spark much buying. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said stocks for the week ending Dec. 23 fell by a massive 213 Bcf, a far deeper withdrawal than the year-earlier pull of 125 Bcf and the five-year average of 106 Bcf. Notably, the triple-digit draw sent inventories down to 3,112 Bcf, which is 133 Bcf below year-earlier levels and 85 Bcf below the five-year average. Despite the severity of the recent Arctic blast, Lower 48 storage was sitting above 3.1 Tcf, a level some analysts as recently as early summer had feared would be reached by the end of October. Furthermore, EBW noted that while the Pacific region remains undersupplied at only 165 Bcf, the South Central (home to Nymex Henry Hub futures) sat 58 Bcf above the five-year average at 1,136 Bcf. Waha gas, to be delivered from Sunday to Tuesday, traded firmly in negative territory on Friday. Prices ranged from negative $1.000 to negative $10.000 and averaged at negative $3.865, off $3.005 day/day. Likewise, other West Texas locations posted sub-zero prices. El Paso Permian dropped $3.025 on the day to average negative $3.800, and Transwestern fell $2.325 to average negative $3.115. This isn’t the first time Permian prices have fallen into negative territory. Such prices first appeared in the market in the spring of 2019 as production grew and pipeline capacity tightened. Waha, for example, averaged negative $5.750 that April, five months before Kinder Morgan Inc.’s Gulf Coast Express (GCX) pipeline project went into service. Regional cash prices went negative again in the fall of 2020, a couple of months before Kinder Morgan’s second Permian conduit – Permian Highway Pipeline – began operations. Until this year, Permian prices largely had remained in positive territory once PHP and another conduit, Whistler Pipeline, entered service. Still, with high oil prices spurring drilling activity in the Permian, associated gas has flooded the market. This, once again, has resulted in pipelines running full. Making matters worse, GCX on Thursday alerted customers that the maintenance on the Devil’s Run Compressor Station, which began on Wednesday, would be extended until further notice. This means that total capacity on the pipeline is to remain restricted by 145,000 MMBtu/d.

Gas spill contained at Metro East oil refinery, cleanup underway– Cleanup efforts are underway after a gas spill Friday evening at a Metro East oil refinery. Emergency crews reported a gas spill around 6 p.m. Friday at Kinder Morgan’s Midwest Terminal. The site is located at 1000 BP Lane in Wood River, Illinois. Officials tell FOX 2 there was a gasoline release after prolonged frigid conditions in the area. The gas spill did not lead to a fire, and no injuries have been reported from it. The gas spill was quickly contained on site As of Friday evening, the tank associated with the gas spill has been isolated and shut down. Emergency crew are conducting a series of air monitoring procedures and cleanup activities have begun. “We are working closely with our customers on potential impacts,” said a Kinder Morgan communications specialist in a statement to FOX 2. Emergency officials will handle the investigation on what led up to the gas leak.

Helicopter Crashes in GOM with Four Aboard - The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) paused its search late Thursday for three Walter Oil & Gas Corp. platform workers and a pilot after a helicopter crashed 10 miles off the coast of Southwest Pass, LA, in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The USCG’s Eighth District, headquartered in New Orleans, conducted a search for about eight hours, covering an area of 180 square miles in the GOM. The search team included a helicopter aircrew and response boat crew. “It is always a difficult decision to suspend a search,” said Lt. Cmdr. Kevin Keefe, New Orleans Search and Rescue Mission coordinator. “Our deepest sympathies and condolences go out to the family and friends during this difficult time.” The USCG said it received a call from Rotorcraft Leasing Co. (RLC) around 8:40 a.m. CT Thursday stating that a company helicopter carrying four people had crashed in the GOM while departing from an oil rig platform. The platform is the West Delta 106 “A,” Walter Oil’s Sean Fitzgerald, managing director of crisis communications, told NGI. USCG’s Petty Officer Jose Hernandez told NGI that after pausing the search late Thursday, “there is no Coast Guard involvement anymore.” As NGI went to press Friday, the four people remained missing.

Here’s Why 32,000+ Abandoned & Orphaned Offshore Wells Litter the Outer Continental Shelf -  Sitting about 12 miles off the Louisiana coast near the mouth of the Mississippi River, an abandoned well has been spilling oil into the Gulf of Mexico for the past 18 years. This is the longest-running oil spill in U.S. history and is still ongoing at the time of this writing. Left unchecked, it could continue to spill oil into the ocean for another 100 years.It all started in 2004 when Hurricane Ivan struck the Gulf of Mexico, passing within about 62 miles of a fixed offshore platform owned by Taylor Energy. It hit as a Category 3 hurricane, bringing 145-mph winds and 70-foot ocean swells that caused an underwater mudslide—ultimately capsizing the rig and moving it about 560 feet before it was buried beneath 150 feet of mud on the ocean floor. At least 28 oil wells were exposed. Taylor Energy reported the leaks and attempted to stop them, but they were unsuccessful.  In all, it’s estimated that the Taylor Energy spill has released up to 140 million gallons of oil to date. Not all stories of abandoned and orphaned offshore wells are like Taylor Energy’s. Some have been decommissioned the right way, while others are long forgotten and pose unknown environmental and marine life risks. Inadequate records and limited monitoring have made it challenging to accurately track the number of abandoned wells and whether they’ve been adequately plugged. According to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, however, more than 32,000 of the 55,000 offshore wells across the 10.9-million-acre Outer Continental Shelf are abandoned or orphaned. Offshore wells are abandoned when they do not produce enough to offset operating costs. Some wells never produce at all. Some “dry up,” their accessible reserves exhausted based on current extraction methods. Some of these wells are temporarily abandoned, with the idea or promise that the owner will return to attempt extraction sometime in the future. Yet, the average length of time since the 3,364 “temporarily” abandoned wells in the Outer Continental Shelf were last drilled is 38 years.  Wells are considered orphaned when they have no owner. Offshore oil wells are often orphaned if the companies that own and operate them go bankrupt or close their doors for any other reason. With no known owner, orphaned wells present significant challenges when it comes to shutting in and decommissioning them. Decommissioning an offshore well is expensive and difficult. In the case of the Taylor Energy oil spill, worker safety and environmental concerns stopped attempts to dredge the seafloor and access the wells, which lay about 500 feet below the surface. The state has already spent about $64 million decommissioning Platform Holly off the coast of California, a cost the state must now bear after the platform’s owner, Venoco, filed for bankruptcy. The total cost of decommissioning the platform is expected to reach about $350 million. California is also shouldering the cost of decommissioning orphaned wells on the Rincon Pier after their operator filed for bankruptcy. The state has appropriated more than $50 million in funding for the project thus far.

Oil spill in Corpus Christi Bay on Christmas weekend  (KXAN) — The U.S. Coast Guard is working to clean up approximately 3,800 gallons of light crude oil in Corpus Christi Bay. The spill was reported around 11 p.m. Saturday near the Flint Hills Ingleside facility in the La Quinta Channel, according to the USCG. That’s when watchstanders sent Coast Guard pollution responders to the area to assess the spill.Responders arrived on the scene and estimated up to 3,800 gallons of oil spilled into the water from a cracked pipe. The pipeline was cracked in multiple places, the USCG said. Responders saw a sheen that was about 300 by 200 yards. Responders from Miller Environmental Services deployed over 1,500 feet of boom to contain and absorb the oil.

Texas Refineries Could Take Two Weeks To Fully Restore Operations After Storm -  Most refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast have begun procedures to restart operations that were disrupted by the massive winter storm late last week, but a full return to normal output of motor fuels could take up to two weeks for some facilities.    The freezing temperatures affected refinery equipment and caused issues at the steam and co-generation units at some refineries, sources with knowledge of the situation told Reuters on Wednesday. Pemex’s Deer Park refinery and Motiva Enterprises’ Port Arthur, the biggest refinery in the United States, could see their restart stretched out to the first or second week of January, sources familiar with the refineries’ operations and schedules told Reuters. Winter Storm Elliott led to hard-freeze warnings issued for all the states along the U.S. Gulf Coast, where most of the U.S. refining capacity is located.    As of Friday, December 23, as much as 1.5 million bpd of the Gulf Coast’s refining capacity was shut down due to the freezing temperatures, per Reuters estimates.   Refineries run by Motiva Enterprises, Marathon Petroleum, and TotalEnergies outside Houston were shut late last week. Operations at other refineries in Texas, run by ExxonMobil, Valero Energy, and LyondellBasell, were also disrupted by the severe winter storm.   In total, the extreme winter weather affected some of the output at refineries along the Gulf Coast that process a combined 3.58 million barrels per day (bpd) and deliver around 20% of U.S. motor fuels.Last week, the national average gasoline price dropped for a seventh consecutive week, but it’s not certain this week will bring another decline in gasoline prices, due to the rally in oil prices and the refinery outages due to the storm, according to fuel savings app GasBuddy. “We’re still waiting for the national average to fall below $3 per gallon, something that is suddenly a bit less likely given the extreme cold weather, interrupting refining operations in the south, curbing gasoline production and potentially driving prices up slightly,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said on Tuesday. 

Marathon Oil completes Eagle Ford acquisition for $3 billion - Marathon Oil Corporation completed its acquisition of the Eagle Ford assets of Ensign Natural Resources for a total cash consideration of $3 billion after considering closing adjustments. The acquisition was previously announced on Nov. 2. The assets acquired from Ensign Natural Resources (99% operated, 97% working interest) span Live Oak, Bee, Karnes, and Dewitt Counties across the condensate, wet gas, and dry gas phase windows of the Eagle Ford. Marathon Oil believes it can deliver maintenance level production from the acquired asset of 67,000 net boed (22,000 net bopd of oil) with approximately one rig and 35 to 40 wells to sales per year. The Company's valuation of the asset was based on this maintenance level program and does not include any synergy credits or upside redevelopment opportunity. Chairman, president, and CEO Lee Tillman said, "This acquisition satisfies every element of our disciplined acquisition criteria. It's immediately accretive to our key financial metrics, it will drive higher shareholder distributions consistent with our operating cash flow driven Return of Capital framework, it's accretive to our inventory life with attractive locations that immediately compete for capital, and it offers truly compelling industrial logic given our existing Eagle Ford footprint and our track record of execution excellence in the play."

U.S. shale executives concerned about labor shortages amidst rising costs in 2023— U.S. shale executives remain concerned about the outlook for rising costs going into 2023 as they continue to struggle with hiring and retaining workers, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. “The labor market continues to be incredibly tight in the Permian Basin,” one unidentified respondent was quoted as saying in the bank’s latest quarterly energy survey. “Our company is relying more heavily on rotational employees to service equipment. Permian Basin infrastructure seems to be at max capacity. We are seeing an increase in safety incidents due to poor road conditions and traffic.” Most respondents polled in the survey, which was released on Dec. 29, said they expect to increase capital spending slightly or significantly next year compared with 2022 levels. While most also see West Texas Intermediate oil at $80 per bbl or higher at the end of next year — levels that are above the current price — underlying inflation and supply chain issues punctuated by labor shortages also make major production hikes unlikely.

 To ease looming West Texas water shortage, oil companies have begun recycling fracking wastewater - Fracked wells in West Texas don’t just produce petroleum. Much more than anything else, they spit up salty, mucky water. Typically, companies have discarded that fluid, hundreds of millions of gallons per day, by injecting it back underground, occasionally causing small earthquakes. But as water becomes more scarce, they’re beginning to reconsider. For now, hydraulic fracturing in arid West Texas uses large amounts of fresh aquifer water to crack open subterranean shales, unleashing a mixture of oil, gas and fossil brine 10 times as salty as the sea. Fracked wells in West Texas don’t just produce petroleum. Much more than anything else, they spit up salty, mucky water. Typically, companies have discarded that fluid, hundreds of millions of gallons per day, by injecting it back underground, occasionally causing small earthquakes. But as water becomes more scarce, they’re beginning to reconsider. For now, hydraulic fracturing in arid West Texas uses large amounts of fresh aquifer water to crack open subterranean shales, unleashing a mixture of oil, gas and fossil brine 10 times as salty as the sea.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1983 as Gas Prices Rise Again -- The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell to its lowest level since 1983, as oil and gas prices rose again last week. The Biden administration has tapped over 240 million barrels from the SPR this year to lower domestic gas prices, which have been rising since the president took office. President Joe Biden first announced his plan to release oil from the national reserve on an emergency basis on Nov. 23, 2021, as part of a “major effort to moderate the price of oil” and lower prices at the average “corner gas station.” The SPR was established when Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act after the 1973 oil embargo, for emergency shortages, acts of terrorism, and natural disasters. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Biden ordered the release in March of the first 30 million barrels out of the 180 million initially intended to be tapped from the SPR in 2022. Republicans and energy analysts have been highly critical of the plan, arguing that it does little to lower gas prices and makes the United States more vulnerable to major supply disruptions in the future. U.S. gas prices soared over $5 per gallon in June, reaching an all-time high, but later fell below $4 by the end of summer. Right before the midterms,  Biden controversially ordered the DOE to sell an additional 15 million barrels from the SPR on October 19, in addition to the oil already released, and called for additional sales throughout the winter.The emergency oil stockpile, which is managed by the Department of Energy (DOE), tumbled to 375.1 million barrels as of Dec. 23, according to the Energy Information Administration This is the first time that the reserve has fallen below 378 million barrels since Dec. 30, 1983, when it reached 378.3 million barrels.In the meantime, average national gas prices rose to $3.159 per gallon on Dec. 29, for the third consecutive day, according to the American Automobile Association’s gas price index.However, the brief rally earlier this week and other associated factors may deter producers from selling oil contracts to the U.S. government at its desired price of between $67 and $72 per barrel, to refill the reserve.West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. oil benchmark, jumped to nearly $80 per barrel last week, but later fell to around $78.30 by Dec. 29, while the Brent crude index, the global oil benchmark, hit $84.33 per barrel.The DOE’s Office of Petroleum Reserves announced on Dec. 16, that it would start repurchasing crude oil for the SPR.Higher oil prices potentially pose a challenge to the DOE’s plan to begin soliciting bids from oil producers to refill the SPR using fixed-price contracts.The Chicago Mercantile Exchange showed future WTI prices holding above $79 per barrel from February through July 2023. The DOE’s program to refill the national oil stockpile by 3 million barrels a day, is set to begin in February 2023.

Keystone Restarts Canada Oil Exports to All Lower 48 Destinations - After a 29-day interruption to repair a leak in Kansas, oil flows resumed Thursday to all destinations on Keystone Pipeline for up to 600,000 b/d of Canadian exports into the United States. TC Energy Corp. said added precautions enabled the restart, including a reduction to a high operating pressure previously allowed by a special permit from the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA). “After completing repairs, inspections and testing we proceeded with a controlled restart of the Cushing Extension,” said TC management. “The Keystone Pipeline System is now operational to all delivery points. “The pipeline system will operate with additional risk-mitigation measures, including reduced operating pressures. We maintain our commitment to our ongoing safety-led response and will fully remediate the incident site.” Keystone eastern flows resumed Dec. 14 to the Illinois refining region of Wood River and Patoka, a week after a break in the line spilled 14,000 bbl. The last restart reopened a southern branch to the Houston area via the Cushing hub in Oklahoma. The mishap remains under investigation and no cause has been disclosed. TC said it would “share the learning from the investigation as they become available.” The spill darkened a Kansas field and creek about 20 miles south of Steele City, NE,, a junction site where the 2,151-mile pipeline splits into its eastern and southern paths for Canadian oil from Alberta. The Keystone cleanup and restart follows a plan devised by TC, PHMSA, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, and other local, state and federal agencies.

California passed a milestone law to stop neighborhood drilling. Now Big Oil has launched its counterattack.  -Environmental justice communities and advocates across California celebrated a major victory in August when state legislators passed a bill to ban new oil wells and phase out old ones within 3,200 feet of sensitive sites like homes, schools, and hospitals. It was a win decades in the making. Activists had spent years fighting to protect communities from the toxic impacts of neighborhood oil drilling, which include higher risks of cancer, asthma, heart disease, preterm birth, and other reproductive issues. Democratic state Senator Monique Limón, who introduced the setbacks bill, known as SB 1137, called its passing, “a historic moment in California history.”  But last week, Big Oil struck back. The California Independent Petroleum Association, or CIPA, the trade group representing drillers in the state, announced it has gathered enough signatures to force a referendum onto the 2024 state ballot. If approved by voters, it would overturn the state legislature’s decision and dismantle the new setbacks law, leaving it to CalGEM, the state’s slow moving regulatory body for oil and gas, to implement protections on its own accord. CIPA originally filed the paperwork for the referendum just three days after Governor Gavin Newsom signed the oil setback bill into law in September, and has spent months collecting the more than 600,000 signatures needed for the initiative to be formally included on the 2024 ballot; Stop the Energy Shutdown, the CIPA-run committee sponsoring the referendum effort, has now collected over 978,000. Over the next few months, California’s secretary of state and county registrars will count and certify the signatures. “What we’re seeing right now is the last gasp of a dying industry that is willing to do anything to get what they want,” said Kobi Naseck, a coalition coordinator with Voices in Solidarity Against Oil in Neighborhoods, or VISIÓN.

BP agrees to sale of interests in four Alaska North Slope assets -  BP today announced that it has agreed to sell interests in four BP-operated oilfields on the North Slope of Alaska to Hilcorp. The sale agreement includes all of BP’s interests in the Endicott and Northstar oilfields and a 50 percent interest in each of the Liberty and the Milne Point fields. The sale also includes BP’s interests in the oil and gas pipelines associated with these fields. “This agreement will help build a more competitive and sustainable business for BP in Alaska” said BP Upstream Chief Executive Lamar McKay. “It will allow us to play to two of our great strengths, managing giant fields and gas value chains. We will now concentrate on continuing development and production from the giant Prudhoe Bay field and working to advance the future opportunity of Alaska LNG.“ The agreement does not affect BP’s position as operator and co-owner of the Prudhoe Bay oilfield nor its other interests in Alaska. BP also expects to submit a development plan for Liberty by the end of 2014. As a result of the sale and subject to approval, Hilcorp is expected to become the operator of the Endicott, Northstar and Milne Point oilfields and their associated pipelines and infrastructure. “There are some big benefits from this transaction,” said Janet Weiss, President of BP’s Alaska Region. “BP will be able to focus on maximizing production from Prudhoe Bay and advancing the Alaska LNG opportunity. Hilcorp takes ownership of two mature oil fields ready for new investment and activity, and it will operate a third field that is primed for accelerated production. And, the state gets another accomplished operator working the North Slope. Thanks to tax reform, Alaska is now on course for increased investment and production and even the possibility of LNG.” BP remains committed to its plans for increased investment at Prudhoe Bay, which have resulted from recent oil tax reform by the State of Alaska. The plans include adding two drilling rigs, one in 2015 and a second in 2016, for a total incremental $1 billion investment over five years. These activities are expected to account for 200 Alaska jobs and 30-40 additional wells being drilled each year, bringing a boost to both the company’s operations and the state’s economy. Approximately 250 employees are associated with the assets included in the agreement and the company is committed to providing clarity about their future as soon as possible. The majority of those BP employees at or supporting Milne Point, Endicott and Northstar are expected to be offered positions with Hilcorp with no break in employment.

Pressure mounts on Biden administration for decision on giant Willow oil field project in Alaska  —A major oil prospect on federal land in Alaska is hanging in the balance as pressure mounts on the Biden administration for a final decision to approve, or reject, the project. Conservation groups and climate activists have urged the administration to deny ConocoPhillips the permission it needs to build the $8 billion Willow oil project. National groups protested outside the White House earlier this month, arguing the project will imperil wildlife like polar bears and undermine President Joe Biden's goals to combat climate change. The project's advocates, including Alaska's bipartisan congressional delegation, are calling for approval from the administration so construction can start immediately during the North Slope's short winter season, or else it will be delayed until next year. They say the project is vital for the struggling Alaska economy and could combat future high oil and gas prices. Alaska Native leaders are also weighing in, both in favor and against. Political observers say they don't know where the Biden administration will land, saying the president is in a tough political position. ConocoPhillips has said it will begin construction as soon as the administration makes a decision supporting development. Additional delay "jeopardizes ConocoPhillips' ability to initiate construction of the project in this winter season and further advance major contract awards that are needed to execute the project," the company said. Also, this month, ConocoPhillips Alaska President Erec Isaacson signaled in an interview with Bloomberg that the company will back out of the project if the Biden administration scales the development down to two drilling locations, called pads. ConocoPhillips said the "viable path forward" is a development proposal with three initial drilling pads, a plan the federal government proposed this summer. That plan arose after a federal judge rejected initial approval of the project by the Trump administration in 2020, after conservation groups argued that the government had underestimated the plan's harm to wildlife, among other factors. If built, Willow would be one of the first oil fields in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. The reserve, which is the largest block of federal land in the U.S., was established by President Warren Harding in 1923 as a source of oil for the U.S. Navy. But commercial oil didn't flow from the reserve until ConocoPhillips established its first small field there in 2015. The Willow field could produce 600 billion barrels of oil over three decades, worth $50 billion at today's oil prices. Its oil could also lead to the release of 278 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions during that time, equivalent to what 76 coal-fired power plants emit in a year, conservation groups say.

Mexico Natural Gas Production Jumps by 400 MMcf/d in November -- Mexico’s natural gas production continued to surprise in November, rising to 4.431 Bcf/d from 3.872 Bcf/d in the same month last year. Production was also up considerably compared to the 4.04 Bcf/d in October, according to the latest data from upstream regulator Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos (CNH). Production averaged 4.079 Bcf/d through the first eleven months of this year, a year that has been marked by steadily increasing production. As a result, pipeline imports from the United States haven’t experienced the growth seen in previous years. Mexico imported 83% of its total natural gas needs in August, usually its highest demand period, CNH said. This figure was down from 91% in August of 2021. November’s natural gas production figure is the highest since the start of the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador in 2018. The current consistent uptick in production is the first real growth spurt since the precipitous fall that began in 2009, when natural gas production peaked at 6.534 Bcf/d. Still, Mexico’s own forecasts don’t show production returning to those lofty heights. CNH said recently that even in the most bullish production scenario, it sees output peaking at 4.73 Bcf/d in 2026. Analysts are also predicting a slowdown in oil production growth in Mexico for next year. Given the high percentage of associated gas in Mexico, this would have a knock-on effect on natural gas. Associated gas production was 2.636 Bcf/d in November. Non-associated gas added the remaining 1.795 Bcf/d, according to CNH. Petróleos Mexicanos, aka Pemex, accounted for 95% of natural gas production in November, or 4.191 Bcf/d. Private sector operators added 241 Bcf/d. Production of natural gas has been spurred by Pemex’s so-called priority fields, some of which have proven to be gas-rich. Quesqui was the leading field in November, at 582 Bcf/d. Next was Akal (512 MMcf/d) and Ixachi (300 MMcfd/), both onshore fields in the southeast. The offshore fields Maloob (286 MMcf/d) and Ku (211 MMcf/d) rounded out the top five.

LNG Plans Would Benefit Mexico and U.S. Market Long-Term, Expert Lawyer Says(intervieww transcript) “The global need for natural gas is going to continue for at least the next 30-40 years, whether for power generation, backup or industrial purposes, particularly in Asia and Europe,” Rogelio Calderón, industry expert and founder of Huasteca Ventures, told NGI’s Mexico GPI. “If Mexico has an LNG hub with access to that market, we’re going to continue to see significant LNG demand especially from Japan, Korea, China and Indonesia, where they don’t produce enough natural gas to be self-sufficient.” Calderón added: “In the years to come, there will be a deficit for natural gas in the world, and if Mexico has available LNG export plants to supply foreign markets, the country, and the US, should benefit from these projects over the next 20 to 30 years.” Rogelio Calderón is an energy and industrial projects consultant with more than 16 years of experience in the Mexican private sector and abroad. A lawyer by trade, Calderón is the founder and partner at Huasteca Ventures, which advises clients on project strategy and financing, legal and contractual operations, agroindustrial and energy industry projects such as natural gas pipelines, electricity generation, permits and renewables. Calderón has an MBA from the University of Texas and holds degrees from the Universidad Anáhuac, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM) and the Tecnológico de Monterrey.

Analysis-Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale boom is running out of road - (Reuters) - Argentina's booming shale production in Vaca Muerta, a formation that rivals the United States' Permian Basin, is at risk of running out of road as infrastructure to handle the oil and gas nears capacity, threatening to put the brakes on rapid growth. The government is now racing to build out infrastructure: a major new gas pipeline is set to come online mid next year and there are plans for new export terminals near Buenos Aires. The government is also working on a liquefied natural gas (LNG) law to send to Congress hoping to stimulate investment. How the government fares is key to Vaca Muerta's future after years of stop-start development. The formation, in Argentina's Patagonian south, is the size of Belgium. It holds the world's second-largest shale gas reserves and the fourth-largest shale oil deposits. It could become a key global supplier of gas as the world looks for alternatives to Russia, whose energy industry has been heavily sanctioned over its invasion of Ukraine. But industry data reviewed by Reuters, interviews with a dozen executives, local and national officials and Vaca Muerta residents, reveal how bottlenecks - from pipelines operating at capacity to a lack of fracking equipment and utilities - threaten to hold up the country's plans. "The current gas pipelines are very full," said Pablo Trovarelli, head of midstream operations at a gas treatment plant run by Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS) in Vaca Muerta, adding that new pipelines were needed to raise production. The plant aims to up its capacity from 15 million cubic meters per day (m3/d) this year to 21 million m3/d in 2023, Trovarelli told Reuters at his office in the energy transport hub town of Tratayén in Neuquen province. But it can only meet these targets if new pipelines come online. "If that doesn't happen I cannot expand, because I have nowhere to inject the gas," Trovarelli said. Data from consultancy Rystad Energy shows oil and gas production in Vaca Muerta is bumping up against the limit of what pipelines can carry. Neuquen produces some 280,000 barrels per day of oil, at pipeline capacity. Gas is similarly at its ceiling of around 2 billion cubic feet per day. Rystad analyst Andrés Villarroel said pipeline shortages had forced some recent oil cargoes to be moved by truck. "Anelo is about to collapse," said Milton Morales, 40, the local mayor, who cited hundreds of homes not being linked to the gas grid and a lack of services in the town of some 9,000 residents. The population has exploded fivefold in the last five years. "It is ridiculous to talk about the potential to develop Vaca Muerta and the projections generated by the reserves that we have behind our town and to think that Anelo today has 700 families without gas," he said.

Struggling to afford heating bills, Britons turn to ‘warm banks’ to keep out the cold - Every morning on her days off, Mary Obomese wraps up in her winter coat and heads to Woolwich Centre Library in southeast London, where she spends two hours on the computer and keeps herself warm. The 52-year-old, who works as a healthcare assistant in Britain's National Health Service (NHS), is among those who are turning to 'warm banks' - designated spaces where people can go if they cannot afford to turn on their heating at home. The war in Ukraine has pushed natural gas prices up sharply, exacerbating a cost-of-living crisis in Britain, where inflation rates are among the highest in the developed world. Obomese, who lives in a council flat and earns about 1,500 pounds ($1,828) per month, is the main earner in her family, with her two children still in education and her husband working as a freelance journalist. The family has been operating an 'on-off' system with their heating, turning it on in the mornings and then off for most of the day, then intermittently in the evenings when the children return from school and university. When they get cold, Obomese said, they wrap up in their coats or sit on the sofa with blankets.

Finland gets floating LNG terminal to replace Russian gas (AP) — Finland’s first floating liquefied natural gas terminal was moored today at the southern port of Inkoo where it will supply gas to the Nordic country that was cut off from Russian gas imports earlier this year amid the war in Ukraine. The massive 291-meter-long and 43-meter-wide offshore support vessel Exemplar, which sailed to the Baltic Sea from Spain earlier December, has a capacity of 68,000 tons of LNG and is scheduled to be operational from the beginning of 2023. FSRU Exemplar, owned by the U.S. company Excelerate Energy Inc., will ensure future availability of gas in Finland, replacing supplies earlier imported from Russia, Finland’s state-owned Gasgrid Finland said. The vessel will reconvert LNG to gas which will then be fed into the Finnish network for distribution. The arrival of the Exemplar will also enable gas deliveries to the Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania — and possibly also to Poland through the undersea Balticconnector pipeline between Finland and Estonia that runs near Inkoo. Russian energy giant Gazprom halted gas exports to neighboring Finland in May, citing Helsinki’s refusal to pay in rubles, as Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded European countries do since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Gazprom’s move marked a likely end to Finland’s nearly 50 years of importing natural gas from Russia. The two parallel Russia-Finland natural gas pipelines were launched in 1974. Natural gas currently accounts for just some 5 percent of total energy consumption in Finland, a country of 5.5 million. Until May, nearly all of that gas came from Russia, and has been used mainly by Finnish industrial and other companies with only an estimated 4,000 households relying on gas heating. As Moscow has cut off electricity exports to Finland — also in May — and the Finnish state-controlled oil company Neste has replaced imports of Russian crude oil with other sources, Finland’s energy ties with Russia are now all but gone.

European natural gas prices return to pre-Ukraine war levels  — European natural gas prices fell this week to levels not seen since before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Front-month natural gas futures on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, the benchmark contract in Europe, plunged in recent weeks to bottom out below 77 euros ($81.91) per megawatt hour, a level not seen since February — prior to the beginning of a full scale war in Ukraine.As of Thursday morning, they were trading at around 81.5 euros. At their peak in August, European gas prices topped 345 euros/MWh as Russia’s weaponization of its natural gas exports to the rest of the continent in response to punitive EU sanctions, and sky-high temperatures over the summer, drove up demand while constricting supply.The spiking prices sent household energy bills soaring and have fueled a cost-of-living crisis across much of the continent.However, unseasonably warm weather through winter in much of northwest Europe has reduced demand for heating and allowed the continent to replenish its gas inventory following drawdowns during several cold snaps over the last few months.Goldman Sachs in November predicted a sharp fall in European gas prices in the coming months as nations gained a temporary upper hand on supply issues. “As a rule of thumb, a rise or fall in gas prices by €100 per MWh changes the gas bill of the euro zone economy — at 2021 gas consumption — by an amount equal to almost 3% of GDP once households and consumers have to bear the full costs of the change in gas prices,” Berenberg Chief Economist Holger Schmieding explained in a note last month.“As the EU imports some gas under longer-term fixed-price contracts, the actual impact on the gas import bill is not quite as pronounced ... but as electricity prices are still largely linked to gas prices, the total pain of high gas prices — and the relief from any correction — may be more pronounced than the rule of thumb suggests.”The European Union last week agreed upon a temporary mechanism to limit excessive gas prices, which comes into force on Feb. 15. The “market correction” mechanism will be triggered automatically if the front-month TTF price exceeds 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days, and if it deviates by 35 euros or more from a reference price for global LNG (liquefied natural gas) over the same three days.

Natural Gas Futures in Europe Plunge 77% from Crazy Spike -  by Wolf Richter -  - The price of natural gas futures in Europe continues to plunge off its crazy spike last summer. Dutch front-month TTF Natural Gas Futures – a benchmark for northwest Europe – traded today at €82 per megawatt-hour (MWh), down by 77% from the high on August 26, and back to where it had first been in September 2021 (data via Investing.com).This plunge occurred amid a dual strategy in Europe: Reducing demand for natural gas and lining up new supply to replace pipeline natural gas from Russia.The result on the supply side was a surge of LNG imports from the US and other parts of the world, that are offloaded via existing LNG import terminals and a growing list of floating storage and regasification units (FSRU). And Norway, now the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe, increased its production by 8% from a year earlier, to record levels in 2022, according to estimates by Norway’s energy ministry in August. The gas is delivered via a network of pipelines.And on the demand side, there are ongoing efforts by consumers and businesses to reduce consumption of natural gas and power, strongly motivated by the spike in energy costs. In addition, some power generation has shifted from natural gas to coal. Demand reduction was helped along by a relatively mild winter so far.As a result, natural gas storage facilities are in good shape for this time of the year, especially important for Germany. In the European Union overall, storage facilities are 83.2% full, which is above the five-year average for this time of the year. Gas storage facilities data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, as of December 26:

• Germany: 88.6% full
• France: 84.0% full
• Belgium: 84.0% full
• Austria: 90.1% full
• Denmark: 89.6% full
• Netherlands: 77.4% full

In an amazing feat in Germany, where construction delays of years are common, the first floating LNG import terminal and a 26 km long pipeline to the existing grid opened on December 17, after only five months of construction. How Germany could source and install the equipment and put 26 km of pipeline into the ground in only five months is a miracle. Similar miracles are in the works. When it comes to keeping the industrial powerhouse fueled, previously unimaginable miracles are being performed on a daily basis.In the Netherlands, two floating LNG import and storage terminals entered operations in the port of Eemshaven in September. Others are in the works.Capacity of these floating LNG import terminals is relatively small, but enough of them will add up, and supplement increased pipeline supplies from Norway and other parts of Europe.The shutdown of natural gas supply from Russia is a particular and spicy issue for Germany, which had become recklessly dependent on cheap pipeline natural gas from Russia, dating back to the Cold War. Every Chancellor had to be supportive of enhancing this reckless dependency further. Gerhard Schröder took this dependency to a new level with the Nord Stream project. After he left office in 2005, he got cushy jobs at Russian state-owned energy companies, Nord Stream AG, Rosneft, and Gazprom. Germany is now trying to make his life miserable. And it’s finally weening itself off that dependency.

Wary Market Warns of Potential Chaos Once EU Natural Gas Price Cap Takes Effect - The European Union’s (EU) decision to cap natural gas prices could jeopardize the bloc’s efforts to refill storage inventories this summer and upend the region’s energy markets, industry and market participants have warned since the mechanism was finalized on Dec. 19. ttf The price cap would be triggered if the month-ahead Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract were to surpass 180 euros/MWh, or about $56/MMBtu, for three business days. The month-ahead TTF must also be 35 euros, or around $11 above a reference price for LNG over the same three days. That’s well below an initial proposal in November to cap prices if they were to exceed 275 euros, or roughly $86. “This in our view significantly increases the likelihood the price cap is triggered versus the previous proposal, hence significantly increasing the risk of a market disruption event,” said Goldman Sachs Commodities Research analysts led by Samantha Dart. If activated, the cap would stay in place for at least 20 working days. EU energy ministers included a provision that would allow regulators to suspend the mechanism if supply, demand or financial markets were jeopardized by it. It is taking effect Feb. 15 and would apply to month-ahead, three-months ahead and year-ahead derivative contracts on all EU gas trading hubs. It would not apply to over-the-counter (OTC) trades. Prompt TTF reached nearly $100 last summer. The contract stayed above the threshold and durations set forth in the price cap mechanism. The severe price spikes came as European buyers were scrambling to fill a supply gap left by declining Russian exports ahead of the winter heating season. EU’s Christian Zinglersen, director of the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER), said the cap is “unprecedented” and “untested.” He told the Financial Times days after ministers reached an agreement on the mechanism that he would be “reluctant to rely on this price cap” to prevent last summer’s price spikes. In a note to clients, Goldman analysts said a price cap without any demand limits would do little to ease trouble in Europe’s gas markets. Instead, the measure “risks making the ongoing deficit worse by incentivizing consumption.” Dart’s team said TTF prices would need to be near 180 euros this coming summer to limit demand enough to fill storage inventories to 90% of capacity by Nov. 1 as the EU has mandated. Without Russian gas imports, the International Energy Agency expects the bloc’s members to face a supply shortfall of more than 1 Tcf in 2023. Analysts at Evercore ISI led by Sean Morgan said a price cap would allow Asian buyers like China and India to be more competitive in the spot market. Other Asian buyers with long-term contracts, such as Japan, Korea and Taiwan, would also be less likely to re-export cargoes to Europe for profit, the firm said. “In our view, the announced EU gas price cap greatly increases the likelihood of acute shortages of gas for European industry and consumers when the market gas clearing price exceeds that cap,” Evercore said in a note to clients shortly after the agreement was announced. The European Federation of Energy Traders (EFET), which has repeatedly warned of the cap’s potential harm, said EU governments should prepare for the next level of decision-making. “Even with some useful safeguards to limit or suspend the mechanism, we can still expect there to be changes in the market behavior,” EFET said.

Turkey discovers new gas reserve in Black Sea - Turkey has discovered a new natural gas reserve of 58 billion cubic meters (bcm) President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced. In addition to the new discovery at a depth of 3,023 meters in the Caycuma-1 field, the total gas reserve was raised also by a revision of the estimated volume in the Sakarya field to 652 bcm from 540 bcm, Erdogan said at a press conference after a cabinet meeting, Xinhua news agency reported.

Russia ready to resume gas supply to Europe via Yamal-Europe gas - Russia is prepared to resume gas supplies to Europe via the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, which was previously stopped for political reasons, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told Russian state news agency TASS on Sunday. "The European market remains relevant, as the gas shortage persists, and we have every opportunity to resume supplies. For example, the Yamal-Europe pipeline, which was stopped for political reasons, remains unused," Novak said. There is an increase in demand for gas from Europe, Novak said, according to TASS. "Today, we can confidently say that there is a demand for our gas. Therefore, we continue to consider Europe as a potential market for the sale of our products. It is clear that a large-scale campaign was launched against us, which ended with acts of sabotage against Nord Stream," he said. Russia has been in an energy standoff with Europe since it invaded Ukraine in February. In May, only 44 hours after Ukraine reduced the flow of natural gas across its territory into Europe, blaming interference by Russian troops, Gazprom stopped supplies through the Yamal-Europe pipeline running across Poland and stopped sending gas to a distributor in Germany. According to state news agency RIA Novosti, Gazprom was forced to suspend supplies due to sanctions on its parent company, EuRoPol GAZ. In December, the West to East gas supply from Germany to Poland was also temporarily halted, "falling to zero," TASS reports.

Russian natural gas output, exports to fall in 2022 – TASS quotes Novak -  Russia will reduce natural gas production and exports in 2022 due to the shutdown of export infrastructure, TASS news agency cited Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak as saying on Monday. “Gas production by the end of the year will be 12% less than in 2021, and exports will drop by about a quarter. This is primarily due to the shutdown of export infrastructure,” Novak said an interview with TASS. LNG production will increase by 8.7% this year, Novak added. According to Novak, Moscow managed to keep oil output from falling despite Western sanctions. “According to preliminary data from the Energy Ministry, this year we will increase oil production by about 2% compared to 2021 to 535 million tonnes despite pressure on the industry. Exports will increase by 7.5% to 242 million tonnes,” Novak said in the interview.

Iran boosts natural gas output by 10 mcm per day - State oil company the NIOC says it has completed overhaul of a key natural gas liquids (NGL) project in southern Iran to allow the country to increase its overall natural gas output by some 10 million cubic meters (mcm) per day. CEO of the National Iranian South Oil Company, an NIOC subsidiary, said on Tuesday that it had started injecting natural gas to Iran's national grid from its NGL 1000 project in Aghajari region in southwestern province of Khuzestan. “This will allow for stability in production and distribution of natural gas with the purpose of meeting a part of the winter energy demand in the country,” said Alireza Daneshi. The announcement comes amid growing demand for natural gas for heating in Iran as temperatures have dropped to below zero in many parts of the country. Figures by the Iran’s state gas company the NIGC released over the weekend showed that gas demand in the Iranian household sector had reached an all time high of nearly 600 mcm per day. Iran is the third largest natural gas producer in the world after the United States and Russia with some 987 mcm per day in raw sour gas output capacity. NIGC figures released in early December showed the company had supplied a record of 843 mcm per day of natural gas to Iran’s national pipeline network.

Oman inks LNG deal with Japan to export 2.35m tonnes annually - According to Oman News Agency, Oman LNG, the leading gas producer in West Asia, signed a long-term agreement with Japan on 27 December to export 2.35 tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually to Japan’s main electricity generator JERA, along with trading houses Mitsui & Co and Itochu Corp. The contracts will be effective as of 2025 and will run for over five and 10 years, granting Japan greater energy security. Japanese news broadcaster NHK disclosed that the agreement was signed by Japan’s Trade and Industry Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, who is currently visiting the Gulf country. The Sultan of Oman Haitham bin Tariq met with Nishimura in the Al-Baraka Palace and received a written letter from Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, which tackled advanced relations and common interests between the two nations. Times of Oman reported that the signing ceremony, which was attended by Omani Minister of Energy and Materials, Eng. Salim Nasser al-Aufi, Japanese Ambassador to Oman Jota Yamamoto and other delegation members, also covered joint cooperation in various other fields. Itochu Corporation, one of Japan’s largest trading companies, already has a 20 year contract with Oman LNG for 0.7 million tonnes annually that is due to expire in 2025. The newly signed agreement involved discussions around extending the contracts for long-term cooperation. In 2021, Japan imported 1.9 million tonnes from Oman, making up 2.6 percent of its total LNG imports. Representatives of the Sultanate of Oman were also present in Saudi Arabia on 9 December for the historic summit between China and the GCC states, during which Chinese President Xi Jinping called on China and GCC nations to be partners in promoting unity, development, and security in West Asia. Just five days earlier, on 22 December, Japan’s Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) renewed its agreement with oil giant Saudi Aramco to maintain Toyko’s rights to store crude oil in Saudi Arabia for the coming three years. Global LNG supply has recently been compromised after Western countries imposed sanctions on Moscow following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine to hike transit fees for Russian oil to EU – Transneft — - Ukraine will raise transit fees for Russian oil running via the Druzhba pipeline through its territory to the EU on January 1, Russian oil exporter Transneft announced on its website on Monday. It is expected that Kiev will increase tariffs for transporting crude to Hungary and Slovakia by €2.10 per ton to €13.60 ($13.90), bringing the total hike to 18.3%. In November, Bloomberg reported that Ukraine was mulling a tariff hike on Russian oil transit starting next year, citing a letter from Ukrtransnafta, the operator of Ukraine’s oil pipeline network. The Ukrainian operator had attributed the need for the price hike to the “continued destruction of Ukrainian energy infrastructure” which had resulted in “a significant shortage of electricity, an increase in its costs, a shortage of fuel, and spare parts.” Transneft spokesman Igor Demin confirmed to the Russian media that the company had received the letter and was studying it. Ukrainian oil transit fees have already been raised twice this year. The last hike in April reportedly brought the total increase to 51% on an annual basis. Druzhba, one of the longest pipeline networks in the world, carries crude some 4,000 km from Russia to refineries in the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia.

Russia Says Europe Will Struggle To Replace Its Oil Products - Europe will find it difficult to replace Russian crude oil and product supply once the full effect of the EU embargoes on Russian petroleum products is felt, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.“Europe used to be a key market for the sale of our oil products. Let us wait and see which decisions they will make in the long run. So far, we don’t know what may substitute for our fuel,” Novak said in an interview with local news agency TASS published on Sunday.Some EU member states could request to be exempted from the embargo on seaborne imports of Russian oil products, the top Russian energy official said.“Probably, they will resort to exemptions, like it was with oil, when the restrictions did not apply to pipeline supplies, refineries in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Even Germany and Poland, who declared their refusal from Russian oil, have applied for it for 2023,” TASS quoted Novak as saying.The EU embargo on imports of Russian crude oil by sea came into force on December 5, while the embargo on seaborne imports of Russian oil products will take effect on February 5.Although the EU embargo and the EU-G7 price cap on Russian crude oil at $60 per barrel didn’t immediately roil the oil market – although traders were concerned about a possible demand hit from slowing economies – uncertainty is growing over how the bans on Russian imports will affect supply balances over the next few months.As the EU embargo on imports of Russian diesel enters into force, “The competition for non-Russian diesel barrels will be fierce, with EU countries having to bid cargoes from the US, Middle East and India away from their traditional buyers,” the IEA said in its monthly report in November.In the December report, the agency said, referring to Russian exports, “Crude oil loadings were unchanged on the month at just over 5 mb/d, despite a 430 kb/d drop in shipments to Europe. By contrast, product flows (in particular of diesel) surged, including to Europe.”

Novak warns that Russian oil production curb is needed - The Kremlin will mandate Russian oil producers to reduce output and avoid compliance a recently introduced price cap mechanism, according to the country’s deputy prime minister in charge for energy issues Alexander Novak.Novak told state television channel Vesti24 that any deliveries of Russian oil to customers, insisting on contracts with the price cap conditions would mean “falling into dependence on unfriendly countries”, The Kremlin uses the term “unfriendly country” to describe group of mainly Western nations backing various sanctions against Russia and its corporations and individuals following the invasion of Ukraine in February. According to Novak, while more Russian crude and products can be sent to Asia, Pacific and Africa to avoid new price restrictions, there may still be a need for producers to cut their oil output by between 500,000 barrels per day and 700,000 barrels per day. He added that President Vladimir Putin is still working on a decree to respond to the price cap, and added that the document will mostly likely ban Russian companies from selling oil to countries supporting the price cap, or customers asking for the price cap clause in contracts.The document is expected to see the light of the day sometime this week. Novak said that the current price cap of $60 per barrel may be revised down in line with lower market pricing and suggested that a production cut would be a logical response for producers facing such uncertainty. According to market reports, seaborne cargoes of Russian core oil export blend, known as Urals, were traded at discounts of $40 per barrel to North Sea benchmark Brent earlier in December. Buyers have shown a growing reluctance to take Urals deliveries following the introduction of the European embargo on Russian oil supplies and the G7 price cap mechanism. With Brent hovering below $80 per barrel earlier in December, such discount has meant that cargoes were already priced well below the cap. On Friday, however, the price for the front month February futures contract for the delivery of Brent rose by 3% to over $83 per barrel on the ICE Exchange in London, reacting to the Novak’s estimate of possibly required Russian oil production cut to avoid any sales under the price cap mechanism. Novak added that the world will still need hydrocarbons in the long-term despite the rise of renewable share of energy supply, with Russia capable of answering that need through the delivery of “cheap oil and gas”. However, Novak declined to answer a question on whether Russian gas giant Gazprom is following suit by diverting its natural gas production to alternative markets after gas exports to Europe in the second half of 2022 fell about two-thirds lower than the same period of 2021. He acknowledged that Gazprom is making concerted efforts to sell more gas to China while still exporting to Europe. “We continue to receive requests from European customers to increase gas supplies from Russia” via remaining transit routes," he said. Speaking on Monday, Novak said that authorities may issue a permission to Gazprom to resume gas deliveries to Poland and Germany via the Yamal Pipeline which had to halt pumping Russian gas in May, according to Russian state news agency Tass.

Putin bans all oil sales to ‘price cap’ states —   Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday signed a decree on retaliatory measures to the West’s price cap on Russian oil exports. It comes in response to the measure from the EU, G7 countries, and Australia, which took effect earlier this month.  The presidential decree bans the supply of oil and petroleum products from Russia to countries which apply a price cap in contracts. It also prohibits deliveries if the contracts directly or indirectly specify the cap.

Russia Retaliates Against Countries Imposing Oil Price Cap, Bans Exports Starting in February --  Oil exports from Russia are to be banned beginning Feb. 1 to any country that agreed to cap prices, according to a decree signed Tuesday by President Vladimir Putin. The ban would continue for five months. “Deliveries of Russian oil and oil products to foreign entities and individuals are banned, on the condition that in the contracts for these supplies, the use of a maximum price fixing mechanism is directly or indirectly envisaged,” according to a translation of the decree. Earlier this month, the European Union (EU) and the Group of 7 (G-7) nations, composed of Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan and the United States, agreed to cap the price of Russian crude oil at $60/bbl. The cap is to be reviewed every two months. The Russian oil export ban overall may be limited to buyers outside of Western Europe. The EU in May banned most Russian oil imports to reduce the Kremlin’s ability to finance its war in Ukraine. “Although the ban could potentially have expansive scope (i.e., it ‘applies at all stages of supply to the final buyer’), we interpret it as leaving President Putin and Russian government agencies with significant discretion in curtailing exports,” said ClearView Energy Partners LLC analysts. “Given that Putin has long had the option of retaliating against the West by limiting Russian output – with or without a plausibly deniable pretext – we view [the] decree more as formalizing status quo risks to supply rather than new ones.” Although the decree does not impose a “binding constraint on supply,” the ClearView analysts said Russia could use it as a “warning” to the West that it could use the G-7 caps for leverage.  “We also think Putin may be waiting to see where the West prices the coming products caps before determining the scope of Russia’s export constraints,” the analysts said.

Putin attempts to undermine oil price cap as global energy markets fracture =Russia’s announcement of an oil export ban on countries that abide by a G-7 price cap is the latest sign that we’ve entered a new era for global energy markets, according to analysts. But they also note it’s unlikely to have a short-term impact on oil prices, with markets taking their cues from data and concrete actions rather than words. The price cap was introduced on Dec. 5 and requires traders using Western services such as maritime routes, insurance and financing to pay no more than $60 per barrel for seaborne Russian oil. Urals crude is currently trading around $50 per barrel, according to Finnish refining firm Neste. President Vladimir Putin’s decree on Tuesday saidthat from Feb. 1 it would stop crude oil and oil products for five months to any nation that adhered to the cap, with a separate ban on refined oil products to come. Dan Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, told “CNBC Special: Taking Stock 2023” on Tuesday that despite skepticism over whether the program would work, leaders had found a way to keep oil flowing into the market while reducing Russian oil revenue. But as a result, he said, we now have a “divided, more politically charged oil market.” “For the last 30 years, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, we’ve had a global market in which oil has pretty much moved around based on the economics, exceptions were Iran and Venezuela.” “But now we have what I call a partitioned oil market in which Russian oil can no longer go to its largest market, which is Europe, and the markets have been divided and that oil is now flowing east.”

Oil spills after a tanker carrying 1.1m litres of fuel capsizes in Meghna - The eco-diversity of a certain part of the river Meghna is in danger as a Chandpur-bound tanker carrying a large quantity of fuel has capsized after being hit by another vessel. The tanker named Sagar Nandini-2, carrying an estimated 1.1 million litres of oil, collided in mid-river with another ship around 4 am on Sunday near the Kathirmatha area under the Bhola Sadar Upazila, said KM Shafiul Kinjal, media officer of Coast Guard’s south zone. Sailors from other vessels on the river were able to rescue all the 13 crew members from the sinking tanker, he said. Local fishermen present at the scene told bdnews24.com that the breach on the hull of the capsized tanker is causing it to leak oil. One of the crew members, who could not be identified, said the visibility on the river was limited due to thick fog and that’s why the collision took place. “We started from Chattogram port on Saturday to Chandpur. Everything was going perfectly until we reached Tulatoli [near Bhola]. The fog started to get thicker which subsequently reduced visibility and we slowed down our speed. After a while, another ship just hit engine room on the starboard side head-on, which damaged the hull of the tanker,” he said. “The tanker started to sink immediately after the hit. We yelled and yelled for help but no one came to rescue us for a long time. Right before the tanker completely went underwater, a trawler carrying sand came to our aid eventually, he said. Another crew member alleged that the fishermen who were operating near the sinking tanker siphoned off the oil from the tanker. Coast Guard’s Shafiul, however, claimed that the overzealous fishermen who wanted to siphon off the oil from the river retreated after the authorities reached the spot. Md Akhter Hossain, chief of Bhola’s Ilisha River Police Station, said a joint team of the Coast Guards and River Police has launched a clean-up operation of the oil. In 2014, a tanker carrying an estimated 350,000 litres of oil collided in mid-river with another vessel in Sundarbans’ Shela river, and the subsequent oil spill caused massive damage to the wildlife and eco-diversity of the largest mangrove forest in the world.

Sunken Tanker In Meghna: Oil spill poses threat to hilsa sanctuary | The Daily Star - A huge amount of crude oil has leaked onto the Meghna and is spreading fast into the Bay of Bengal, after an unidentified vessel crashed into a tanker in Bhola Sadar's Tultoli area early Sunday. The government was scrambling to clean up the thick layer of oil from the water yesterday, as the massive oil slick poses a threat to a nearby hilsa sanctuary and the river's aquatic life. Speaking to The Daily Star, Enayet Hossain, officer-in-charge of Bhola Sadar Police Station, said the tanker, Sagor Nandini-2, was hit by an unidentified vessel around 4:00am. Marine science experts, zoologist and fisheries officials suspect extensive damage to the biodiversity and aquatic life, including the hilsa, following the leak from the tanker, which was carrying an estimated 11 lakh litres of fuel. Maksudur Rahman, master of the tanker, told Bangla Daily Prothom Alo that they set out from Chattogram for Chandpur. Another vessel, due to a lack of visibility, bumped into the tanker, creating a crack in the bottom. "With the help from nearby vessels, we managed to survive. But most of the oil in the meantime leaked onto the river. The coast guard was able to remove 1,000 litres so far." However, coast guard officials claimed the tanker had eight compartments – six containing nine lakh litres of diesel and the rest octane. One compartment remained intact and how much oil was actually spilt cannot be estimated as yet. They further claimed to have removed two lakh litres from the waterbody. Hasan Kerani, a farmer in Daulatpur upazila, told the Bangla daily that fishermen were trying to soak up the oil from the water using towels and cloths. "Almost all the oil [from the tanker] had drained out as the water ebbed into the Bay." Anisur Rahman Talukder, hilsa researcher, said the spill will directly harm the growth of planktons, which is usually consumed by hilsa. "The oil will dissolve into the water, which will undermine the water quality and ultimately harm hilsa production." He urged the government to remove the oil as quickly as possible. "It could damage the ecosystem and also affect hilsa movement and the nearby sanctuary … We can confirm the extent of damage after examining the area." Md Tota Mia, assistant director of the Department of Environment, said, "The spilt oil got washed away during the ebb into the sea. We still can't confirm its quantity." Nurul Azim Shikder, associate professor of Chattogram University's marine science department, told The Daily Star that the damage from the spill would be multifaceted. "The aquatic life, marine birds and overall riverine and marine ecosystems would be the first to suffer. The thick layer of oil would block sunlight from reaching into water, which will stop planktons to grow -- a severe blow to fish and mammal species in the Meghna. The spill finally will end up in the ocean and harm its biodiversity."

Shell Concede to Court Judgement, Agrees to Pay €15m Over Oil Spill in Niger Delta Communities - An international oil company, Shell has agreed to a court judgment in the Netherlands to pay €15 million ($15.9 million) to communities that were affected by multiple oil pipeline leaks in the Niger Delta region of the country. The compensation is the result of a Dutch court case brought by Friends of the Earth, in which Shell’s Nigerian subsidiary SPDC last year was found to be responsible for the oil spills and was ordered to pay for damages to farmers. While Friends of the Earth is an international network of environmental organizations in 73 countries, the affected communities are Goi in Rivers; Oruma in Bayelsa and Ikot Ada Udo in Akwa Ibom of Nigeria’s Niger Delta region. In 2007, the farmers with the help of the Friends of the Earth, Netherlands, and two Nigerian lawyers, Chima Williams and Channa Samkalden initiated legal proceedings in Hague, Netherlands against Shell over its dangerous oil activities in local Nigerian communities, Investors King reports. Reacting to the judgment and Shell’s intentions to pay the compensation, the Media Head, Environmental Rights Action/Friends of the Earth Nigeria (ERA/FoEN), described the historic victory at the courts and the acceptance of Shell to do the needful as a victory for all. Although, Shell said it continued to believe the spills were caused by sabotage, the court however said Shell had not proven “beyond reasonable doubt” that sabotage had caused the spill, rather than poor maintenance. “The settlement is on a no admission of liability basis, and settles all claims and ends all pending litigation related to the spills,” Shell said. Chima Williams, a counsel in the case and the Executive Director of ERA/FoEN, said the resilience of the farmers and the communities, was a model that would galvanise other impacted communities in the region and elsewhere. “Justice may have been delayed but it has now been served. The resilience of the farmers, their communities and determination to make Shell pay is a model that will galvanise other impacted communities in the Niger Delta and elsewhere to act and stay on course,” Williams said.

Shell to Pay $16M to Nigerian Farmers Over Oil Damage - Shell, a global energy and petrochemical group, agreed to pay out sixteen million dollars (£13 million) to four Nigerian farmers and their villages as compensation for damages allegedly caused by oil spills from the company’s pipelines. This comes after negotiations between Shell and Friends of the Earth, an international environmental campaign group. In 2021, a Dutch court ruled that the Nigerian branch of Shell was responsible for the oil spill damages that occurred between the years 2004 to 2007. According to a joint statement by both parties involved in negotiations, compensation will be given based on “no admission of liability,” and a clause explicitly specifies that nothing in the agreement amounts to an admission of guilt. From 2005 until early this year, Shell’s headquarters were in The Hague, Netherlands. Campaigners hailed the 2021 court decision, as it was the first time a multinational was deemed legally responsible for the actions of a subsidiary. “We appreciate this compensation; we can build up our community again,” Eric Dooh, the son of one of the farmers who launched the case in 2008 alongside the Dutch branch of Friends of the Earth, said. “We can start to re-invest in our living environment.” For years, the Nigerian oil industry has been linked to numerous environmental damages which have also harmed oil-hosting communities themselves. Prior to the court ruling, Shell had argued that the leaks from its pipelines were a result of sabotage. According to reports by the BBC, although compensation is not much—given the circumstances and extent of damages—this legal development is considered a milestone for the environmental protection of rural communities in general and especially for those across the region of the Niger Delta. Nevertheless, oil pollution continues to impact the health and livelihoods of many in the communities of Oruma, Goi, and Ikot Ada Udo who are to receive reparations. The four farmers who initiated the case—Barizaa Dooh, Elder Friday Alfred Akpan, Chief Fidelis A. Oguru, and Alali Efanga—said the leaks from underground oil pipelines had cost them their livelihoods by contaminating land and waterways. Dooh and Efanga passed away before a court decision on the matter was reached, so their sons pursued the case on their behalf. In last year’s court ruling, Shell was ordered to also set up an early leak detection system in the affected area. This is in addition to the monetary compensation it is required to pay out. A joint statement by Shell and Friends of the Earth indicated that the detection system has now been installed.

Genel Oil’s oil operations in East-African region declared illegal by Somalia  - Somalia’s government declared Genel Energy Plc’s operations in a breakaway northern region illegal. Officials said the company should cease claiming to hold rights for oil exploration and exploitation in the country. Genel Energy owns oil blocks in Somaliland, a territory that unilaterally declared independence in 1991. However, the region isn’t recognized as a sovereign state by any other nation. Somalia claims dominion over the area. Any investors seeking to operate in Somalia must comply with the nation’s constitution, the Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources said in a statement published on its website on Dec. 28. “The federal government of Somalia categorically rejects Genel Energy Plc’s claim to own petroleum rights in Somalia’s northern regions,” the ministry said. The government will take “all possible measures and pursue all legal avenues as part of its constitutional mandate of protecting Somalia’s territorial integrity,” it said. Genel Energy was awarded an exploration license for two onshore blocks in Somaliland in August 2012 and acquired a 50% participating interest in the Odewayne Production Sharing Agreement that covers three additional blocks in November of that year, according to its website. In 2021, Genel Energy announced it signed a farm-out agreement relating to the SL10B13 block with OPIC Somaliland Corp., with all its share of future capital investment coming from state-owned Taiwanese petroleum company CPC Corp.

CNOOC Starts Production From Second Project This Month -Chinese energy major CNOOC has started production from the Kenli 6-1 Oilfield 5-1, 5-2, 6-1 Block Development Project. The project is in the southern part of the Bohai Sea, with an average water depth of around 19 meters. The main production facilities include one central platform and six unmanned wellhead platforms. CNOOC added that 107 development wells were planned to be commissioned, including 67 production wells, 36 water injection wells, and 4 water source wells. The project started production on December 26 and is expected to achieve its peak production of approximately 36,100 barrels of crude oil per day in 2024. Kenli 6-1 oilfield 5-1, 5-2, 6-1 block is the main area of Kenli 6-1 oilfield, which is the first large-scale shallow lithological oilfield with a reserve of 100 million tons discovered in Laibei lower uplift in the Bohai Sea. At the project, the company installs standardized unmanned platforms on a large scale in the Bohai Sea for the first time. The successful startup of the project marks a remarkable step forward for the company to build standardized and unmanned offshore oilfields. CNOOC Limited is the operator and holds a 100 percent interest in the Kenli 6-1 Oilfield 5-1, 5-2, 6-1 Block Development Project.

Sinopec breaks vertical well depth record by drilling 8,866 m in Sichuan Basin, China  — China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation ("Sinopec") announced that its Yuanshen-1 risk exploration well in the Sichuan Basin had successfully completed the drilling at a depth of 8,866 m, beating the previous deepest record in the Sichuan Basin set by its Rentan-1 well. A major breakthrough of Sinopec's "Project Deep Earth," the Yuanshen-1 well has reached the deepest oil and gas formation in burial depth in the Sichuan Basin and further shows the great potential of deep ancient carbonate rocks in the region. The Yuanshen-1 well has reached the deepest hydrocarbon reservoir in the Sichuan basin – the mound-shoal complex of the platform marginal facies in Dengying Formation. During the exploration, the ultra-deep carbonate rock, buried at a depth of over 8,700 m, still showed positive hydrocarbon evidence in the porous reservoir. Drilling to a depth of over 8,000 m can bring many challenges for global industrial players. The large-size upper casing weighs 517 tonnes (568.90 U.S. tons) at ground level, which is a challenge to the rig's lifting and casing capabilities. The ultra-high temperature in the deep earth also has high requirements for the drilling fluid's stability and anti-pollution capability, and coring at such depths is difficult and time-consuming. To combat these challenges, Sinopec has developed five key technologies for ultra-deep drilling to support oil and gas exploration in deep and ultra-deep carbonate reservoirs. Sinopec has continually advanced deep hydrocarbon exploration in the Sichuan Basin, mainly including conventional gas in deep marine carbonate rocks and deep shale gas. It has discovered the Puguang, Yuanba and Chuanxi gas fields, and to date, Sinopec's annual conventional gas production capacity from deep marine carbonate reservoirs has exceeded 12 billion m3. To date, Sinopec's deep natural gas resources in the Sichuan Basin in areas with mineral rights have reached 15 trillion m3, which holds a heavy weight for China's natural gas reserves and production growth.

Crude oil up on concerns over US winter storms' impact; Brent hits $84.65/bbl – Oil prices rose in light trade on Tuesday on concerns that winter storms across the United States are affecting logistics and production of petroleum products and shale oil.Brent crude was up 73 cents, or 0.9%, at $84.65 a barrel by 0122 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $80.41 a barrel, up 85 cents, or 1.1%.  On Friday, Brent rose 3.6%, while WTI gained 2.7%. Both benchmarks recorded their biggest weekly gains since October. British and US markets were closed on Monday for the Christmas holiday. "Fears over supply disruption from winter storms in the US prompted buying, though trade was thin as many market participants were away on holiday," said Kazuhiko Saito, chief analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co Ltd.  "But the US weather is forecast to improve this week, which means the rally may not last too long," he said.A lethal blizzard paralysed Buffalo, New York, on Christmas Day, trapping motorists and rescue workers in their vehicles, leaving thousands of homes without power and raising the death toll from storms that have chilled much of the United States for days.Airlines had cancelled nearly 2,700 US flights as of Saturday afternoon after the weather snarled airport operations around the country.Frigid cold and blowing winds on Friday knocked out power and cut energy production across the United States, driving up heating and electricity prices. Concerns over a possible production cut by Russia were also behind today's rally. Russia may cut oil output by 5% to 7% in early 2023 as it responds to price caps, the RIA news agency cited Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak as saying on Friday.

Severe Weather in the U.S. Cut Into Output Amid Some Outages - Oil futures pulled back from early gains in a thinly traded market, as investors have been trying unsuccessfully for a month to gauge exactly when the Chinese economy may emerge from COVID restrictions. Oil prices had gained earlier in the session as severe weather in the U.S. cut into output amid some outages. Simultaneously, uncertainty over the health of the U.S. economy is posing a problem for investors, as the U.S. Federal Reserve overtly aims to slow the economy and curb demand as a way to solve the inflation problem. February WTI lost three cents per barrel, or 0.04% to $79.53, while Brent for February delivery gained 41 cents, or 0.49%, to settle at $84.33 a barrel. Petroleum products finished mixed, with January RBOB falling 2.34 cents per gallon, 0.98% to $2.3602, and January heating oil adding 8.76 cents, or 2.68%, to settle at $3.3537 per gallon. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin delivered the country’s long-awaited response to a Western price cap, signing a decree that bans the supply of oil and oil products to nations participating in the cap from February 1st for five months until July 1st. The decree includes a clause that allows for Putin to overrule the ban in special cases. The Group of Seven major powers, the European Union and Australia agreed this month to a $60/barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil effective from December 5th over Moscow's "special military operation" in Ukraine. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 579,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending December 30th, cutting available refining capacity by 147,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 27,000 bpd in the week ending January 6th. The largest U.S. crude oil refinery began on Sunday to restart key units central to its capacity and motor fuel production following a near total shutdown late last week in severe cold weather, according to a notice filed by Motiva Enterprises with Texas pollution regulators. The restart of units at Motiva's 626,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas refinery could take up to 16 days. The refinery's largest two crude distillation units, a 350,000-bpd VPS-5 and a 200,000-bpd VPS-4, are among the units expected to restart by January 11th. The refinery's 81,000 bpd gasoline-producing fluidic catalytic cracker and 105,000 bpd diesel-producing hydrocracker are also shut and scheduled to restart. The two cokers, the 54,000 bpd coker-1 and 110,000 bpd coker-2, are scheduled for restart as well. The 18,000 bpd alkylation unit and 49,000 bpd catalytic reformer will also restart. TotalEnergies continued restarting its 238,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas refinery on Tuesday. The refinery was shut on Thursday night due to severe cold temperatures caused by the passage of Winter Storm Elliot. Exxon Mobil Corp increased production levels on most units at its 369,024 bpd Beaumont, Texas, refinery by Tuesday.  Separately, Exxon Mobil Corp reported a unit upset at its 251,800 bpd Joliet, Illinois refinery on December 25th.

Oil Prices Decline In Choppy Trade On China Concerns - Oil prices fell in choppy trade on Wednesday as fears of a global recession and concerns about rising COVID-19 cases in China, the world's top oil importer, took center stage. The downside remained capped amid news that Russia aims to ban oil sales from Feb. 1 to countries that abide by a G7 price cap imposed on Dec. 5. Benchmark Brent crude futures dropped 0.3 percent to $84.42 a barrel and WTI crude futures were down half a percent at $79.14, as industry group American Petroleum Institute reports data on U.S. crude inventories later in the day. Media reports suggest that Chinese hospitals and funeral homes are overwhelmed due to a surge in COVID-19 infections as the country moves away from its hardline zero-COVID policy. There is uncertainty over the true scale of infections in China due to lack of reliable official figures. China has stopped publishing daily COVID data, but media reports now suggest that the country will eventually publish data on COVID-19 cases once a month when the disease comes under Category B management. China's reopening buoyed the outlook for oil, but analysts say that it is difficult for demand to recover in a short time as the virus spreads largely unchecked across the country of 1.4 billion people. After China announced the re-opening of borders in a major shift of its epidemic response policies, several countries have announced safety measures like testing and medical scrutiny of passengers, coming from China and other countries where the virus is prevalent.

Oil Futures Ended Lower on Wednesday – Oil futures ended lower on Wednesday, with optimism over the demand outlook stemming from China’s continued relaxation of COVID-19 curbs offset by a surge in cases of the disease. A somewhat firmer dollar also lent pressure to this market. Earlier this month, China moved to ease domestic COVID restrictions, triggering a massive wave of infections across the country, which had been nearly virus-free for much of the pandemic due to rigid control measures. February WTI delivery lost 57 cents per barrel, or 0.72% to $78.96, while Brent Crude for February delivery lost $1.07 per barrel, or 1.27% to $83.26. RBOB Gasoline for January delivery gained 0.27 cent per gallon, or 0.11% to $2.3629. ULSD for January delivery gained 2.41 cents per gallon, or 0.72% to $3.3778.   IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1,314,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending December 30th, cutting available refining capacity by 763,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 27,000 bpd in the week ending January 6th.  U.S. oil refiners were working to resume operations at a dozen facilities knocked offline by a deep freeze over the holiday weekend, a recovery that in some cases will stretch into January. An Arctic blast sent temperatures well below freezing and led to power, instrumentation and steam losses at facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The affected plants process about 3.58 million bpd of oil, delivering about 20% of U.S. motor fuels. Most of the affected plants suffered minor damage. Two Houston-area plants, Motiva Enterprises' Port Arthur and Petroleos Mexicanos' Deer Park complexes, have restarts that will take them into the first or second week of January. Over the weekend, TotalEnergies began working to regain a steam and power co-generation unit critical to sustaining operations at its Port Arthur plant. Exxon Mobil was close to returning its Beaumont, Texas, plant to full operation on Tuesday. LyondellBasell Industries was in the early stages of resuming production at its Houston refinery. It plans to complete the restart of its 263,776 bpd Houston refinery by the end of the week. Marathon Petroleum, which operates the second largest Gulf Coast facility after Motiva, aims to get production back by week's end. Valero Energy was in the process of restarting its Port Arthur plant over the weekend. Phillips 66 reported a unit upset and flaring at its 356,000 bpd Wood River, Illinois refinery on December 24th. Separately, Phillips 66 reported emissions at its 149,000 bpd Borger, Texas refinery. A leak was discovered on piping from unit 40 to unit 26Flint Hills reported flaring due to planned maintenance activities at its Corpus Christi, Texas West plant. Chevron Corp reported a flaring event due to an equipment issue at its 245,271 bpd Richmond, California refinery.

WTI Holds Losses After API Reports Small Crude Draw -- Oil futures ended lower Wednesday, with optimism over the demand outlook stemming from China's continued relaxation of COVID-19 curbs offset by a surge in cases of the disease. "The somewhat firmer dollar and doubts about how quickly Chinese demand would bounce back following the country's scrapping of its quarantine rules weighed on oil and other commodities such as copper on Wednesday," "With Covid infections still very high, it could be several weeks if not months before demand fully recovers in China and oil prices are slipping today as investors reassess the outlook," With the winter storms, this week's API report maybe distorted. API:

• Crude -1.30mm
• Cushing -338k
• Gasoline +510k
• Distillates +38k

US Crude stocks fell for the 2nd straight week (6th of the last 7 weeks) according to API, which reported a 1.30mm barrel drawdown... Source: Bloomberg WTI hovered around $78.75 ahead of the API report and was unmoved by the small crude draw...

US Crude Stocks Bounce Slightly Despite Soft Demand, China's Dubious 'Reopening' - Crude oil prices were a mixed bag Thursday morning as fuel demand weakens amid the tepid reopening of China's economy.Brent futures for February 2023 dipped $1.13 cents to $82.13 a barrel at the time of writing, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.13, or 1.43%, to $77.83 a barrel. Last week, WTI reached session lows of $76.79.And while United States Oil ETF USO opened at $67.55 — down 1.24% — certain crude stocks bounced higher at the time of writing: Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund XLE opened at $85.70 and was trending upward by 0.79%. Exxon Mobil Corp XOM opened at $108 on Thursday and continued to climb by 0.33%. Marathon Oil Corp MRO opened at $26.33 and was up 0.13%. U.S. crude oil inventories fell less than expected, by about 1.3 million barrels, in the week ended Dec. 23, per API data. As of Dec. 28,WTI crude oil futures prices were up 67 cents from a week earlier and up $2.98 from a year earlier.Oil is expected to stay volatile in 2023, and prices may hinge on China's ability to weather its COVID-19 hardships. The country's plan is to reopen borders and abandon quarantine by Jan. 8. Markets will continue to generate support due to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ban on exports of crude oil and oil products beginning Feb. 1.

WTI Extends Losses After Small Crude Build, Gasoline Stocks Plunged Last Week -  Oil prices are lower this morning (despite a small crude draw reported by API overnight) amid concerns about a jump in Covid-19 cases after China suddenly rolled back pandemic rules (which is ironic because prices were down just weeks ago because of the Zero-COVID rules). Rising infections may dampen enthusiasm for the possible rise in demand as the country works to restore productivity. “The lack of clarity over the virus situation in China has prompted some new travel rules from various countries, which could serve as some dampener for previous optimism,”   The U.S. refilling its strategic petroleum reserves “should be supportive for the market and could have put a bit of a floor in place,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. The impact of the huge winter storm is unlikely to have hit these data yet. DOE

• Crude +718k
• Cushing -195k
• Gasoline -3.105mm - biggest draw since Sept
• Distillates +283k

Following API's reported small crude draw, the official data showed a small crude build (+718k), but gasoline stocks plunged for the first time since early Nov...

Oil drops on China uncertainty; U.S. demand limits decline  — Oil prices fell for a second straight session on Thursday on an uncertain demand outlook as more countries considered restrictions on Chinese travelers with COVID-19 infections spreading in the top oil-importing nation. China’s government is dismantling pandemic restrictions, yet a surge in infections there is prompting tougher travel rules on Chinese visitors in some countries. Brent crude futures for February delivery fell by a dollar to settle at $82.26, down 1.2%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $78.40 per barrel, down by 56 cents, or 0.7%. Britain is reviewing whether to impose restrictions on people arriving from China. The United States, Japan, India and Taiwan have already imposed testing on arrivals from the country. “Crude is limping towards the end of the year in thin trading – uninspired by the lifting of COVID restrictions in China amid skyrocketing cases, with little to galvanize crude bulls or bears in today’s benign EIA report,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler. U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly last week as imports climbed and exports fell, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Thursday. Despite the surprise build in crude oil stocks, the report itself was “positive” and showed a “solid rebound” in implied oil demand, resulting in large draws of refined products, said Giovanni Staunovo of Swiss bank UBS. Both oil contracts dipped more than 2% early in Thursday’s session, but pared losses as the U.S. dollar slipped, with investors on edge about interest rate hikes. A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies. “With so many moving parts, I don’t think anyone can say anything with any strong degree of conviction,” Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, said. “OPEC+ could make an announcement at any point and suddenly everything changes. Not to mention Russia’s war in Ukraine and how that develops.” Russia fired scores of missiles into Ukraine early on Thursday, targeting Kyiv and other cities in one of Moscow’s largest aerial assaults since the war started. Meanwhile, TC Energy Corp said the 622,000-barrel-per-day Keystone pipeline was now operational, weeks after a major oil spill in rural Kansas. Shutdown of the line hit supplies in the U.S. and briefly lifted oil prices, although there was little change to either benchmark after settlement.

Oil Prices Subdued On China COVID Concerns ---- Oil prices slipped in cautious trade on Friday, as a surge of COVID-19 cases in China exacerbated fears of a global recession and offset concerns over tight supplies because of the escalating Ukraine conflict.Benchmark Brent crude futures slipped 0.1 percent to $83.34 a barrel, while WTI crude futures were down 0.2 percent at $78.22.Brent futures were on track to gain more than 7 percent in 2022 while U.S. crude futures were poised to rise nearly 4 percent during the year.Investors fretted about the demand outlook following reports that a dangerous new COVID variant is spreading in China U.S. health officials and the World Health Organization (WHO) have called on China to share more information on the spread of COVID in the country, saying the lack of transparency could delay the identification of new COVID variants that pose a threat to public health. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the global body remains concerned over the evolving situation in China due to the unavailability of an apt amount of information from the country about the outbreak.An addition in oil inventory data against the consensus of a drawdown also weighed on oil prices.Data released by U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday showed crude inventories in the U.S. rose by 718,000 barrels last week compared with forecasts for a drop of 1.5 million barrels.

Higher Oil Market Rides Off Into Sunset on Last Trading Day of 2022 -- The WTI crude oil market had a good day, closing sharply higher on the last trading day of 2022. Oil prices notched a 6.7% increase for 2022, but the severe outbreak of COVID in China and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, stifled better gains for U.S. crude oil in 2022. February WTI crude oil was up $1.86 per barrel (bbl) at $80.26, and March closed up $1.95 at $80.45, while March Brent crude oil was up $2.45 at $85.91. There is still much uncertainty over if and when China's economy can recover. DTN Refined Fuels Manager Brian Milne said: "While initially greeted with enthusiasm by the market, anticipating a surge in demand for commodities, Beijing's surprise decision to end its zero-COVID policy in December is now heightening worry China might again infect the world as travel restrictions end. "These concerns were highlighted when half of the travelers on two planes from China to Milan, Italy, tested positive for COVID this week. In response, and also due to the lack of transparency by Beijing on COVID infections and deaths, the United States on Wednesday imposed restrictions on travelers departing from China, Hong Kong, or Macau. Taking effect Jan. 5, all passengers at least 2 years old on flights originating from these locations will be required to show a negative COVID-19 test no more than two days from their departure date. Other countries are considering similar restrictions." Baker Hughes said Friday that the total rig count was unchanged at 779 rigs, 141 oil rigs more versus last year at this time, and a little above the five-year average. Active oil rigs were down one to 621 rigs. Canada's rig count was down 12 from last week to 84, and down 90 rigs from the same time one year ago. January RBOB was up 8.88 cents at $2.4595, and February RBOB was up 10.16 cents at $2.4783, with the January closing on a high note as it reached expiration Friday. Besides finding support from the higher crude oil Friday, RBOB futures found support on EIA data showing a sharp 613,000-bpd increase in gasoline supplied to the U.S. market during the week ended Dec. 23 to 9.327 million bpd, the highest weekly consumption rate since the last week of September. The sharp gain in demand pressed gasoline inventory down 3.1 million bbl from a five-month high to 223 million bbl, with stocks flat on the year.

Oil prices end roller-coaster year near where they began -- Crude prices ended 2022 about where they began. But what a roller coaster they rode in between. After starting the year a little shy of $80 a barrel, crude futures ended the year just above $80 a barrel. But during the year they reached highs not seen since mid-2014 – reaching near $123 this summer. Prices were propelled by concerns about crude supplies, in large part because Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatened to remove about 2 million barrels from an already-tight market and in part because a world coming out of COVID-19 lockdown was craving more and more oil. Prices were also dampened by roiling concerns about a looming global recession, uncertainty around China’s oil demand as it went into and back out of COVID-19 lockdowns and the fact Russian energy supplies weren’t leaving the marketplace in the quantities expected. While uncertainty is expected to keep prices volatile, some analysts believe basic market fundamentals – not quite enough supply to meet demand – will keep prices trading in their current range, if not a bit higher. In a holiday-shortened week, West Texas Intermediate on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell three of four trading days, but that one gain - $1.86 Friday to end the week at $80.26, was enough to allow prices to eke out a weekly gain. Prices closed last Friday at $79.56 a barrel. The posted price ended the week at $76.74, according to Plains All American. Natural gas prices rode their own roller coaster, climbing to highs not seen in 14 years – approaching $10 per Mcf. The recipe for those higher prices was storage levels below five-year averages with rising demand for natural gas, both domestically and globally as US allies sought US natural gas to offset Russian supplies stirred in. As the year drew to a close, though, a surge in storage levels and a mild winter – the week before Christmas not withstanding – undercut price levels. Henry Hub prices on the NYMEX started the holiday-shortened trading week jumping 20 cents but that was followed by a 57-cent tumble that sent prices below $5 per Mcf, another 12-cent drop and an additional 8-cent fall Friday to close the week at $4.475 per Mcf. That’s down from 5.079 at last Friday’s close. Still producers seem to be more confident in price levels. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, in its fourth quarter energy survey, found respondents’ expectations have steadily risen since 2019. Respondents to the survey said they expect WTI to end 2023 around $84 a barrel. That compares to the previous year, when they expected the price to end 2022 around $74.69, 2021 around $49.77 and end 2020 around $58.54 a barrel – that survey was conducted before the COVID-19 pandemic arrived. “There are enough signs to maintain a bullish long-term [outlook]: a lack of investing versus historical periods, a cooperative OPEC+ willing to limit supply, and a lack of refining capacity,” one survey participant commented. “But the demand picture swings on recession uncertainty and China’s reopening response. So, although I think the price of oil should creep back up, it is hard to not consider it is just range-bound between $75 and $85 per barrel, which is still very constructive, particularly if cost-of-goods-sold inflation rolls over a bit.” Commented another, “The decline in the price of oil is of some concern because we are involved in a much higher level of drilling compared to one year ago. Our economics were figured around $80 per-barrel oil, and that could decrease over the next few months.” A third respondent offered, “Because of the overall world economy, it appears that crude oil demand may continue to slow down while the crude oil supply level remains steady. This will keep downward pressure on oil prices. I still think the overall economics of the industry will remain positive.”

Iran Moves To Consolidate Its Grip On Iraq’s Oil Sector - Iran has long held enormous political, economic, and military sway over neighbouring Iraq through its various military and political proxies, and since the discovery of vast reservoirs of oil in Iran first in the early 1900s and shortly after in Iraq, Tehran has an added incentive to retain this influence and to enhance it. With Iran’s longstanding former superpower ally, Russia, now looking to build out its remaining influence south of Europe, there is another reason for Iran to strengthen its ties with Iraq. In precisely this context, the last few weeks have seen a flurry of activity from Iran directed to doing just this, ranging from repeated military attacks against the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in the north of Iraq to Iran’s Petroleum Ministry setting up a fully-fledged office in downtown Baghdad. At the same time as the office was being set up, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil issued a circular to all Iraqi companies announcing the readiness of Iranian specialised companies to participate in Iraq’s oil and gas projects. Much more is to come. Two factors surrounding the several recent missile and drone attacks by Iran on the Kurdistan region of Iraq (KRI) are apposite to note. The first is the attacks have been roundly condemned by the U.S. on each occasion. The second is that Iran has justified the attacks as a response to terrorist acts being carried out by dissidents attempting to undermine the Islamic regime in Iran after the initial death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman from Saqqez in Iran’s own Kurdistan province. This followed her arrest by Iran’s morality police in Tehran for allegedly not adhering to the country’s dress code for women. Although these different elements require careful unpacking to get to the truthful bits, and that follows, it is worth noting that the two standpoints – that of the U.S. and Iran – in broad terms define the reality of what is going on.First, on the Iraq Kurdistan question, Iran regards this as its own problem, not just Iraq’s. The reason why, as hinted at in the death of Ms. Amini, is that Iran - and Iraq, and Turkey, and Syria – all have very sizeable Kurdish populations of their own. In Iran’s case, about 15 percent of its population is Kurdish, about the same proportion as in neighbouring Iraq, while Turkey has 18 percent Kurdish population and Syria around 16 percent. The Kurdish people have long been denied a recognised independent state of their own and have grown understandably restive at a series of promises made to this effect by the West but never honoured.  The most recent serious assurance made to grant a recognised, independent Kurdistan came from the U.S. and its major allies, including the U.K. and France when Islamic State (IS) drove Iraqi security forces out of several key cities during the Anbar campaign of 2014. Wishing to galvanise the Iraqis and its Middle Eastern supporters to meaningfully deal with the problem themselves, and to avoid a recurrence of the images of dead Western troops on television that precipitated the U.S. withdrawal from the Vietnam War, the allies used the fearsome Kurdish Peshmerga forces to provide much of the ‘boots on the ground presence’ in the fight against IS. In return, the Kurds received a heavy ‘nod and a wink’ assurance from the West that they would gain their independent Kurdistan after the fight against IS had been won.

Nearly 3,000 civilians killed or injured in Saudi strikes on Yemen’s Sa’ada in 2022: Official - A Yemeni health official says nearly 3,000 civilians, including African refugees, lost their lives or sustained injuries this year as a result of artillery and missile strikes by Saudi military forces in Yemen’s northwestern province of Sa’ada. Director of Razih Rural Hospital, Abdullah Musreeh, told Yemen’s official Saba news agency on Wednesday that the number of civilian casualties in the Yemeni regions stands at 2,909, and that the figure covers the period between early January and late December this year. He added that at least 907 people were killed or wounded during the UN-brokered truce that lasted six months and expired on October 2, when gunshots, artillery rounds and missiles by Saudi border guards targeted the Shada'a district. Musreeh said his hospital received 111 dead bodies and 796 injured people, including African asylum seekers, throughout the mentioned period, stressing that Saudi Arabia never committed itself to the truce and its criminal acts continue unabated. The Yemeni health official noted that most of those critically wounded were transferred to medical centers in the capital Sana’a, as Razih hospital was short of medical equipment to provide necessary services. Separately, the Director of Monabbih Rural Hospital Ali al-Ayashi stated that the hospital has received 169 bodies and 1,833 injured people since January. He pointed out that the Riyadh regime presses ahead with its horrendous crimes against the Yemeni nation and African asylum seekers.

Nearly 700 ISIS suspects killed in Syria, Iraq this year, U.S. says -    American military personnel, together with local forces in Iraq and Syria, killed nearly 700 suspected members of the Islamic State in 2022, officials said Thursday, highlighting an aggressive counterterrorism campaign that quietly endures five years after a U.S.-led coalition destroyed the militant group’s caliphate. U.S. forces conducted 108 joint operations in the past year against alleged ISIS operatives in Syria and an additional 191 in Iraq, U.S. Central Command said in a statement, which notes that American troops undertook another 14 missions by themselves and only inside Syria. Nearly 400 suspects were detained, it says.“The emerging, reliable and steady ability of our Iraqi and Syrian partner forces to conduct unilateral operations to capture and kill ISIS leaders allows us to maintain steady pressure on the ISIS network,” Maj. Gen. Matt McFarlane, the top commander of the task force overseeing these operations, said in the statement.Last year, following the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, President Biden declared at the United Nations that the United States would no longer “fight the wars of the past.” But in Iraq and Syria, the Pentagon maintains contingents of about 2,500 and 900 troops, respectively, who still occasionally come under enemy fire.  Biden, writing in an opinion piece published in July by The Washington Post, said that the Middle East is “more stable and secure” than when his administration took over in January 2021, highlighting the U.S. operation in February that killed Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, then the leader of the Islamic State. The group has affiliates elsewhere, including in Afghanistan and parts of Africa.

Attack in eastern Syria kills 10 oil workers: state media - An attack in eastern Syria killed 10 oil field workers, state news agency SANA has reported, a day after Syrian Kurdish-led forces announced an offensive against ISIL (ISIS). “Two others have been wounded in a terrorist attack that targeted three buses transporting workers from al-Taim oil field in Deir Az Zor” province, the report said on Friday. SANA did not provide any information on the nature of the attack or who may be behind it, but a British-based war monitor accused “cells of the Islamic State group” of carrying out the assault near the oil field. “The attack began with explosive devices that went off as the buses drove by, and then the group’s militants shot at them,” Rami Abdel Rahman, director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, told AFP. On Thursday the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said they had begun an offensive against Islamic State fighters, following an earlier assault on a prison in Raqqa, northwest of the attack on the bus. The SDF said the offensive, dubbed “Operation al-Jazeera Thunderbolt”, aimed to “eliminate” IS fighters from areas that had been “the source of the recent terrorist attacks”. The operation is being carried out alongside the US-backed coalition, although there was no immediate confirmation from the international force that they were taking part. The SDF statement said that in addition to the thwarted Raqqa attack, IS fighters had recently carried out eight assaults in the Deir Az Zor area, Hasakeh and al-Hol camp for displaced people – predominantly family members of IS members. Last Monday, six Kurdish fighters were killed when IS fighters attacked the complex in Raqqa, the group’s former de facto capital in Syria, in a bid to free fellow militants imprisoned there.

Washington’s theft of Syrian oil continues unimpeded - US occupation troops stationed in northern Syria helped smuggle a new shipment of Syrian oil out of the country, escorting a convoy of 95 fuel tankers through Iraq’s illegal crossings on 22 December.According to local reports from the countryside of Al-Yarubiyah in Hasakah governorate, the occupation army transferred 65 tankers across the Al-Mahmudiyah crossing and 30 tankers through the Al-Walid crossing into Iraq.This is the third time this month that the US occupation army has been spotted smuggling Syrian fuel out of the country’s resource-rich northeast. On 12 December, locals reported that 37 fuel tankers were smuggled out of the country, just a week after 66 tankers were seen leaving the region.According to an investigation by The Cradle, dozens of tankers pass weekly through illegal crossings between Iraq and Syria in convoys accompanied by US warplanes or helicopters.Shepherds in the region corroborate these claims, saying that the Syrian oil is transported to the Al-Harir military site in Erbil, the capital of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region (IKR), a region known as a “hub” for western spy agencies.The smuggling operation reportedly aims to preserve the area of ​​US influence between Baghdad and Damascus while simultaneously choke-holding the Syrian government – and depriving the largest Syrian population in the area controlled by Damascus of vital resources such as oil, gas, wheat, and medicine.Earlier this year, the Syrian Oil Ministry released a statement saying that the US army plunders “66,000 barrels of oil every single day,” amounting to around 83 percent of Syria’s daily oil production.Moreover, in recent months US forces rebuilt an occupation base in the city of Raqqa and have been working to revive the Liwa Thuwwar al-Raqqa (Raqqa Revolutionary Brigade), an Islamist militia opposed to the Syrian government.As part of the hybrid warfare being waged against Damascus, this month, US lawmakers overwhelmingly approved the ‘Countering Assad’s Proliferation Trafficking And Garnering Of Narcotics Act,’ also known as the CAPTAGON Act.The bipartisan bill marks the start of a new phase of US pressure on Syria and is considered a pretext to increase the siege on the Syrian people, who suffer from extremely difficult economic conditions similar to those they suffered during the famine that the region witnessed during the First World War.

A crippling fuel shortage piles extreme hardship on war-weary Syrians  - “Syria is dead, desperate for someone to pull the plug.” This is how Nour, a 26-year-old nutritionist from Homs, summed up the situation in her home country, more than a decade on from the outbreak of a civil war and amid a worsening economic crisis. A shortage of fuel, which began to bite harder with the onset of winter, has paralyzed life in regime-controlled areas of Syria, including the capital Damascus, forcing authorities to suspend or reduce many essential public services. On Dec. 5, the government almost doubled the price of fuel overnight. Daily power outages now last up to 22 hours on average, even in the capital’s upmarket neighborhoods. Many residents cannot afford to heat their homes as winter temperatures plunge. Although the fighting between the government and rebel factions has subsided in recent years, Syria remains the site of one of the world’s biggest humanitarian crises, with millions of civilians still displaced, infrastructure in ruins, and much of the population living below the poverty line. Syria’s isolation has deepened with the imposition in 2020 of the toughest US sanctions ever targeting the regime of President Bashar Assad. “The current fuel crisis in government-controlled areas is not a novel aspect of the conflict economy in Syria,” Mohammad Al-Asadi, a Germany-based research economist at the Syrian Center for Policy Research, told Arab News. The SCPR has tracked several major fuel shortages since 2020, but, according to Al-Asadi, “the current shortage is the most economically and socially impactful during the last couple of years.” Syria’s Ministry of Internal Trade recently announced plans to sell industrial and commercial diesel at 5,400 Syrian pounds a liter — up from 2,500 Syrian pounds in late November — while petrol will be sold at 4,900 Syrian pounds a liter. The price of fuel distributed through the state-owned Syrian Petroleum Company will remain at 2,500 Syrian pounds per liter. The pent-up demand for fuel has had an adverse impact on the value of the Syrian pound, which hit a new record low on Dec. 10. The dollar exchange rate on the black market surpassed 6,000 Syrian pounds for the first time, while the central bank’s rate stood at 3,015 Syrian pounds. In 2011, when the civil war began, the official rate was 47 Syrian pounds. Reports say diesel and petrol shortages have resulted in severe overcrowding at bus terminals in both Damascus and outlying areas, as the government cut fuel allocations for minibus services — the cheapest mode of transport available to Syrians. “After 1pm, minibuses stop operating, and we take any vehicle we find on the road to commute home,” said Nour. “Passengers sometimes get into fist fights over seats on minibuses and shared taxis.”

Turkiye seeks Russian approval for air offensive in northern Syria -- Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar revealed on 24 December that discussions are being held with Russia to use the airspace above northern Syria for a potential cross-border operation that targets Kurdish militant groups.“We are in talks and discussing with Russia all issues, including opening the airspace,” Akar stated during his end-of-year address.With these talks, Turkiye is following in the footsteps of Israel, which coordinates all of its attacks inside Syria with the Russian army.Turkiye has been launching indiscriminate artillery attacks across northern Syria and Iraq over recent months, targeting positions held by the People Protection Units (YPG) and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).Ankara considers the YPG as the Syrian branch of the PKK —considered a terrorist organization by Turkiye, the EU, and the US. However, Washington sees the YPG as distinct from the PKK and considers it a valuable asset as the group makes up the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).Since last month, the Turkish army has been readying a ground offensive into northern Syria after a deadly terror attack in Istanbul, which was blamed on Kurdish militants. US officials, however, have repeatedly warned Ankara against any cross-border incursion, as their attacks have already caused disruptions to their oil trafficking campaign in northeast Syria, which is conducted in coordination with the SDF.

Damascus is Drowned, ‘Painful’ Offers Await Decision | Asharq AL-awsat - Damascus is mired in its suffocating economic crisis. Syria is expelling its people and is divided into three “states” separated by border-like lines, where militias, organizations, extremists and warring foreign armies coming from major and regional countries abound. Contradictory offers and different conditions are put forward to start a long and complicated march out of the abyss and the abandoned land. But what are the most important conditions and temptations?

• The Iranian offer: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will arrive in Damascus in the coming days. Tehran, which has maintained an exceptional relationship with the Syrian capital since 1979, further strengthened its ties with Syria after 2011, and provided economic and financial support that exceeded $20 billion. It also delivered militias, weapons, and military support to “save the regime.” Tehran believes that had it not been for its intervention in Syria at the end of 2012 and its mediation with Russia to engage in the country at the end of 2015, “the ally would have changed.” The regime remained, and will remain, and it wants a price in return. Iran is seeking a strategic military position that enhances its regional status, in addition to a foothold on the Mediterranean. It demands sovereign financial concessions in oil, gas and phosphate fields, projects and communications. Finally, it wants the Iranians to be treated like the Syrians.
• Arab offers: The Director of the National Security Bureau, Major General Ali Mamlouk, and the Director of General Intelligence, Major General Hussam Louka, visited Arab and Gulf countries in the past weeks, and held meetings for the first time with the leaders of these countries. What are the Arabs offering? The scope of the offers are wide. It features a direct duo and another major geopolitical proposal. The list includes direct matters, such as stopping the flow of Captagon across Jordan’s borders, and cooperation to prevent the infiltration of smugglers and terrorists. On the geopolitical level, proposals feature changing the nature of the relationship with Iran, so that Syria will not be a foothold and a passage to support terrorist organizations and militias that threaten Arab security. The list includes Syrian matters, such as the political solution, the constitutional committee, and guarantees for the return of refugees. Some countries are betting that Damascus will almost reach the standards of the “Abraham Accords” with Israel. On the other hand, the Arab countries offer economic support and exemptions from the sanctions of the US “Caesar Act”, a return to the Arab League and the Arab embrace, in addition to aid and reconstruction.
• The Turkish offer: Following the intervention of President Vladimir Putin, Presidents Bashar al-Assad and Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to security meetings between the head of the Syrian Security Bureau, Ali Mamlouk, and his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, in Moscow. The Turkish request included a joint operation against the PKK and the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, cooperation to return Syrian refugees, and action against terrorism. In exchange, Ankara offers economic support, financing for reconstruction projects, political contacts, and “legitimization” of the regime. Assad has not yet agreed to these proposals and wants Ankara to stop supporting the factions, cooperate against terrorism, and announce its withdrawal from Syria.

Turkey, Syria, Russia defence ministers hold talks in Moscow - Defence ministers of Russia, Turkey and Syria have held talks in Moscow in a clear sign of normalisation between Ankara and Damascus in the decade-long Syrian war. Turkish defence minister Hulusi Akar and the head of its National Intelligence Organisation (MIT), Hakan Fidan, met Syrian defence minister Ali Mahmoud Abbas and Syrian intelligence chief Ali Mamlouk in Moscow along with Russia’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu, the Turkish defence ministry said on Wednesday. “Ways of resolving the Syrian crisis and the problem of refugees as well as joint efforts to combat extremist groups in Syria have been discussed,” RIA news agency said, citing the Russian defence ministry. “Syrian crisis, refugee issue and efforts of joint fight against all terror organisations on Syrian soil were discussed in the constructive meeting,” the ministry’s statement said on Wednesday. “Turkish, Russian and Syrian defence ministers as well as intelligence chiefs in Moscow have agreed to continue tripartite meetings to ensure stability in Syria and in the region as a whole,” it added. Al Jazeera’s Sinem Koseoglu said the meeting was important because the Turkish and Syrian ministers held talks for the first time in 11 years. “We hear Turkish officials saying that it is time for normalisation of ties with Syria,” she said, adding that the two countries were already holding talks at the intelligence levels. Koseoglu said there were still major differences between Ankara and Damascus over the Syrian issue. “We know that Damascus wants the Turkish military presence out of their borders,” she said. “We are also hearing that the Turkish defence minister asked for safe and honorary return of Syrian refugees,” she added.

UN passes resolution to seek ICJ opinion on Israel’s occupation of Palestine - The UN General Assembly on Saturday passed a resolution seeking opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the legal consequences of Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestinian territories. The resolution was backed by 87 countries of the UN General Assembly members against 26 with 53 abstentions. The resolution calls on the ICJ to determine the "legal consequences arising from the ongoing violation by Israel of the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination" as well as of its measures "aimed at altering the demographic composition, character and status" of the holy city of Jerusalem. It also calls on the UN Secretary General to present a report on the implementation of the resolution in the upcoming session of the UN General Assembly in September 2023. Palestinian representative to the UN, Riyad Mansour, hailed the countries that were "undeterred by threats and pressure" and voted in favor of the resolution. "This vote comes one day after the new Israeli government was formed pledging to accelerate colonial and racist policies against the Palestinian people," Mansour said. The UNGA resolution was hailed by the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority (PA). "Time has come for Israel to be a state subject to law, and to be held accountable for its ongoing crimes against our people,” PA spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh said. Around 666,000 settlers live in 145 settlements and 140 random outposts (not licensed by the Israeli government) in the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem, according to Israeli Peace Now NGO. Under international law, all Jewish settlements in the occupied territories are considered illegal.

One-third of Arab population lives in poverty: ESCWA - One-third of the Arab population lives under the poverty line, a UN body said Saturday. A report by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) said that poverty increased in the Arab countries to affect 130 million people. According to the UN commission, the region’s economy is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024 despite the disruption of the global economy's recovery. Unemployment in the Arab region registered the highest rate in the world in 2022 at 12%. "There may be a very slight decrease in 2023 to 11.7 percent,” ESCWA said. Ahmed Moummi, the lead author of ESCWA's report, said despite the region’s positive growth outlook, there are significant discrepancies among countries, which were exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. "The current situation presents an opportunity for oil-exporting Arab countries to diversify their economies away from the energy sector by accumulating reserves and investing in projects that generate inclusive growth and sustainable development," he said. ESCWA is one of the five UN regional commissions, which supports inclusive and sustainable economic and social development in Arab States, and works also on enhancing regional integration.

UN says Taliban ban on women staff in NGOs hit humanitarian operations in Afghanistan -- The United Nations says the Taliban's controversial decision to impose an indefinite ban on female staff working at local and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Afghanistan will hamper humanitarian operations, calling for a meeting with Taliban leadership to seek clarity. In a statement, UN's spokesman Stephane Dujarric noted that Secretary General Antonio Guterres was “deeply disturbed by the reported order of the de facto Taliban authorities" and that the UN chief “reiterates the rights of all women to participate in the workforce thus contributing to the greater good.” In a separate statement, the UN humanitarian coordination office in Afghanistan condemned the latest round of restrictions on women’s rights and emphasized that any such order by the authorities “would violate the most fundamental rights of women, as well as be a clear breach of humanitarian principles.” “Women must be enabled to play a critical role in all aspects of life, including the humanitarian response,” the statement said, adding that, “This latest decision will only further hurt those most vulnerable, especially women and girls.” The statement went on to note that the UN and its partners, including national and international NGOs, are helping more than 28 million Afghans who depend on humanitarian aid to survive. “The effective delivery of humanitarian assistance requires full, safe and unhindered access for all aid workers, including women. The reported ban on women working with the international community to save lives and livelihoods in Afghanistan will cause further untold hardship on the people of Afghanistan,” the statement concluded.

US waged war on Afghans, indulged in corruption, says former president Karzai -- Afghanistan’s former president Hamid Karzai has blamed the United States for the fate of the war-ravaged country, saying the protracted war “was not our war" but used by the US and its allies against the people of Afghanistan. “I was not a partner of the United States in that war against Afghan villages and homes. I changed from the moment I recognized that this war that is fought in the name of defeating terrorism is actually a war against the Afghan people,” Karzai said in an interview with the Washington Post. “I called the Taliban ‘brothers’ for that reason.” Karzai said he had a host of disagreements over various issues with the United States. He also accused Pakistan, which entered into an alliance with the so-called US "war on terror" following the 9/11 attacks in 2001, of sheltering militants. “They knew, the Americans, that the sanctuaries were in Pakistan. They told us that repeatedly. And they would bomb Afghan villages. They would come and tell us that Pakistan was training extremists and terrorists," the former Afghan president said. "Then, they would go and pay them billions of dollars. When this was repeated and repeated, I had only one conclusion. The conclusion was either the Americans are doing this on purpose, or that they are extremely naive and out of touch with the realities of this region.” Karzai said he took responsibility for corruption in the country, while also stressing that the US was the biggest player. “…Yes, there was corruption, but to blame Afghans or the Afghan government for it, is wrong. We do take responsibility. I would never say there was no corruption. But who was responsible for it? Afghans or our international partners? Mainly our international partners, and they know it. They will admit it.”

Indonesian woman flogged 100 times for adultery, man gets 15 lashes - An Indonesian woman has been flogged 100 times in Aceh province for adultery while the male involved, who denied the accusations, received just 15 lashes.Ivan Najjar Alavi, the head of the general investigation division at the East Aceh prosecutors’ office, said the court handed down a harsher sentence for the woman after she confessed to investigators she had sex outside of her marriage.Judges found it difficult to convict the man, who was then the head of the East Aceh fishery agency and also married, because he denied all wrongdoing, Alavi said.“During the trial, he admitted nothing, denying all accusations. Thus, [judges] are not able to prove whether he is guilty,” Alavi told reporters after a public flogging for sharia law offenders in Aceh on Thursday. Aceh is the only region in Muslim-majority Indonesia to impose sharia law, which allows whipping for charges including gambling, adultery, drinking alcohol and gay sex.

Ukraine presidential aide calls for destruction of Iranian weapon factories -A presidential aide for Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky on 24 December called for the “liquidation” of Iranian weapons and drone manufacturing facilities and the arrest of those supplying the Islamic Republic with raw materials.“Important to abandon nonworking sanctions, invalid UN resolutions concept, [and] move to more destructive tools,” Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted early Saturday.Since September, Kiev has accused Tehran of supplying the Kremlin with hundreds of kamikaze drones allegedly used to hit Ukrainian infrastructure.On Friday, the head of Ukraine’s spy agency claimed Russia had already launched around 540 drones at military and energy targets. For its part, Iran denies supplying Russia with drones since the start of the war.The call for military action against Iran by Zelensky’s aide comes just days after officials in the Islamic Republic warned that its “strategic patience” towards Ukraine was running out.“Iran’s patience will not be limitless,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said in a statement published by the state-run IRNA news agency on 22 December, where he also reiterated Tehran’s official position of “never supplying military equipment to any side to be used in the Ukraine war.” “Mr. Zelenskyy should better learn a lesson from the fate of other world leaders who have invested hope on America’s support,” Kanaani concluded.This statement was released hours after President Zelensky delivered an address at the US Capitol building, where he rebuked Iran for being an ally in Russia’s “genocidal policy” before describing Tehran as a “terrorist” state.

Iran moves up 3 places to 7th in global steel producers ranking --Iran moved up three places in the global ranking of top steel producers to seventh position in November with a total output of 2.9 million metric tons (mt), according to a report published in the local media. The Wednesday report by semi-official Fars news agency cited figures by an industry source which showed that Iran’s November steel production had exceeded outputs reported by traditional rivals Turkey, Germany and Brazil. Mohammad Saeidi said that Iran’s steel output had increased by 8.5% year on year in November, despite a 3.7% average decline reported in the global steel production. He said European countries had started to place major orders for Iranian steel shipments amid the global crunch for the metal. Iran was the 10th largest steel producer in the world before mid-summer when the country started to post historic rises in output. Government figures released at the end of August showed Iran’s steel production had risen by 65% compared with August 2021. Major steel producers in Europe have reported steep declines in output in November mainly because of a shoratge in natural gas supplies that has been caused by the war in Ukraine. Steel production by European Union countries dropped by an average of 10.1% year on year in November as top supplier Germany reported a fall of 7.9% in output over the period. Non-EU steel producers also reported an 11.2% drop in output in November compared to the same month last year while US production fell 5.5% over the same period.

Ukraine calls for UN-brokered ‘peace summit’ without Russia — RT -- Kiev has proposed holding a so-called "peace summit" by the end of February to mark the anniversary of Russia's military operation against Ukraine. The initiative was announced by Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba. In an interview with AP published on Monday, Kuleba admitted that while Ukraine will do whatever it can to win its ongoing military conflict with Russia in 2023, diplomacy will play an important role. "Every war ends in a diplomatic way," Kuleba said, adding that "every war ends as a result of the actions taken on the battlefield and at the negotiating table." Asked about the matter of inviting Russia to this "peace summit," Kuleba insisted Moscow must first face an "international court" and be prosecuted for supposed war crimes. He also dismissed Putin’s recent calls for negotiations, stating that everything Russia does on the battlefield "proves" that Moscow does not want to talk. The minister added that the UN was "the best venue for holding this summit, because it is not about making a favor to a certain country" and suggested UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres as mediator for the event. "He has proven himself to be an efficient mediator and an efficient negotiator, and most importantly, as a man of principle and integrity. So we would welcome his active participation," Kuleba said about Guterres. Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky addressed G20 leaders in Indonesia and laid out a ten-point "peace formula," which includes the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops, an "all for all" prisoner swap, and a tribunal for those Kiev accuses of aggression. Russia, meanwhile, has insisted that Kiev must "recognize the reality on the ground" as a prerequisite for any peace negotiations, including the new status of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye as parts of Russia.

Moscow responds to Kiev’s ‘peace summit’ idea — RT - Kiev's proposal of a so-called “peace summit” amid its conflict with Moscow would be impossible if Russia is not invited, Russia’s First Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN Dmitry Polyansky said on Tuesday. Writing on Telegram, the diplomat referred to an idea floated by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba on Monday to hold such an event under the auspices of the UN by the end of February to mark the anniversary of Russia’s military operation against Ukraine. The office of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that he was ready to mediate talks, but only if all parties agree to that. However, Kuleba also demanded that before Moscow be allowed to join at the negotiating table, it should face an “international court” and be prosecuted for its alleged war crimes. Polyansky also pushed back against an allegation put forth by Kiev that Russia had become a member of the UN Security Council and the UN in general “illegally.” He denounced such statements as “nonsense,” which nobody pays attention to. “If you try to combine these two pieces of news, they are mutually exclusive. What ‘peace summit’ could be without Russia?” he asked, adding, however, that it is not difficult to imagine such an event taking place without Ukraine. The Russian diplomat described such an eventuality as “a nightmare scenario” for Ukrainian officials, who, by spearheading such initiatives as a peace summit without Russia, actually make such an outcome more probable. The idea of a ‘Global Peace Summit’ was suggested by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky earlier this month. According to the Ukrainian leader, it should focus on a ten-point “peace formula” that he drew up. This includes the restoration of Ukraine’s “territorial integrity,” the withdrawal of Russian troops, an “all for all” prisoner swap, as well as a tribunal for those Kiev accuses of aggression. On Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated that the Kremlin is still open to talks over Ukraine, adding that it is Kiev who is refusing to negotiate. Moscow has also insisted that Ukraine must “recognize the reality on the ground,” including the new status of the regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye as parts of Russia, as a prerequisite for any peace talks.

After Zelensky’s Washington trip, Ukraine launches another attack inside Russia - On Friday, the day after Zelensky spoke, US President Joe Biden signed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which increases the level of US military spending by $88 billion over the previous year and doubles the amount of money allocated to the Ukraine war to date. The day before he signed the budget, Biden announced that he would send a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine, which is the most advanced missile system sent by the United States to Ukraine to date. Later this week, Biden will sign the omnibus budget legislation that actually appropriates the money to finance the ongoing war with Russia. Ukraine’s latest attack inside Russia sent a clear signal on behalf of Washington that the war will only intensify as it goes into 2023. A glimpse into the Biden administration’s thinking was provided by an article in the New York Times reporting the US rationale for encouraging increasingly escalatory actions. “Ukraine is striking more boldly at targets deep in Russian territory because Kyiv has assessed that Moscow’s military is fighting at the limits of its conventional capabilities,” the Times reported. It continues, “With the sense widespread in Kyiv among officials and civilians that, short of nuclear intensification, Russia cannot do much more to Ukraine that it is not already doing, the allure of curtailing Moscow’s missile capabilities at home outweighs any escalatory concern.” The newspaper quoted a Ukrainian colonel, who concluded, “There is no reaction… Why? Because the Russians simply do not have capacity to do so.” Critically, the Times observed that “American officials clarified they will not object to Ukraine striking back with its own weaponry.” So far, the Putin government has responded to the provocations of the United States and its proxy in Kiev by unleashing repeated airstrikes against Ukraine’s power infrastructure, with devastating consequences for the people of Ukraine. As many as one-quarter of the country’s population is currently without power, Zelensky said in a speech this week. But despite the insistence of the Times that Russia will not respond with its own escalation, the events of the past week have sparked a major change in tone on the part of Russian officials.On December 21, the same day Zelensky visited Washington, Russian military officials announced a major military reorganization and a 30 percent increase in the size of Russia’s army. On December 22, Russian President Vladimir Putin referred to the conflict—which has up to this point been referred to as a “special military operation”—as a war.

Lviv & Kiev Plunged Into Darkness After 'Massive' Missile Attack; Ukrainian S-300 Lands In Belarus -- Ukraine has been hit with a "massive" attack of over 120 missiles across the country Thursday, its military and presidency's office said. "December 29. Massive missiles attack... The enemy is attacking Ukraine from various directions with air and sea-based cruise missiles from strategic aircraft and ships," Ukraine's air force said in a public statement. It marks the largest barrage of missiles since there was weekend talk from both sides of mutual 'openness' in getting to the negotiating table. Ukrainian leadership floated the proposal of UN-brokered talks by the end of February, but its insistence on Russian officials facing a war crimes tribunal first was seen in Moscow as not serious and a non-starter. Regardless, at this point, Thursday's fresh aerial attack effectively slams the door shut on the possibility of talks. According to a blistering statement from Zelensky aide Mykhaylo Podolyak, the missiles were launched: ...by the "evil Russian world" to destroy critical infrastructure & kill civilians en masse. We’re waiting for further proposals from "peacekeepers" about "peaceful settlement", "security guarantees for Russian Federation" & undesirability of provocations. Thus with the obvious sarcasm Zelensky's office has clearly signaled talks at this point are all but an impossibility from its point of view. The Ukrainian military said missiles reached as far West as Lviv, parts of which were left without electricity Thursday morning. "Ninety percent of the city is without electricity," Lviv's mayor said in a social media post. "We are waiting for more information from energy experts. Trams and trolleybuses are not running in the city."

JPMorgan to extend Ukrainian refugee program into 2023 | American Banker - JPMorgan Chase's Warsaw office is planning to extend a work and training program for Ukrainian refugees for another year after hiring around 50 this summer. The Wall Street firm expects to recruit a similar number — depending on the war situation — into its 1,200-person Warsaw office, following positive feedback from employees, Paul Brazier, a managing director in the Warsaw office, said in an interview. In the first recruitment, about 2,000 people from Ukraine applied and 52 were selected, mostly Ukrainian women. Since September, they've been given work and training in areas like finance, human resources, communications and operations. The bank provides kindergarten services as well as advanced English lessons to participants.

NATO’s Ghosts of the Past Return in Kosovo-Serbia – The West has been pressuring Serbia (including threats to cut off visa-free travel and yank approximately 200 million euros in annual aid) to join sanctions against Russia for months but to no avail. Now Kosovo, a NATO vassal state, and its western backers are now doing everything they can to provoke Serbia, which enjoys beneficial relations with Moscow (as well as Beijing).Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo began simmering over the summer when Pristina began pushing for ethnic Serbs to use Kosovan number plates as opposed to Serbian issued ones. This was a no-go for the Serbs because to do so would mean recognising the state of Kosovo as legitimate. Kosovo Serbs temporarily blocked roads into northern territories that are dominated by Serbs, and minor violence ensued. The EU tried but failed to mediate some sort of settlement, which failed, and Serbs in northern Kosovo abandoned their posts en masse. Estimates are that more than 600 officials and police officers refused any further cooperation with Pristina.The Kosovar Serbs demanded a Union of Serbian Municipalities under the 2013 Brussels Agreement, but Pristina refused, saying this would amount to the creation of a Serb state-within-a-state. Pristina instead called for snap elections in the north, a plan that has since been abandoned after the Serbian List party refused to take part.The situation remained in a stalemate until the night of Dec. 8-9 when Kosovo made its move. According to Modern Diplomacy:  About 400 members of the Kosovo Special Forces ROSU (Regional Operational Support Unit) blocked Kosovska Mitrovica, the largest city in the northern part of the region, which is divided by the River Ibar into Serbian and Albanian parts. The central authorities explained the deployment of the special police units by the need to ensure the security of local residents. However, the local Serbs are actually wary of such defenders, since their activity only exacerbates the conflict, instead of preventing it.Pristina has also arrested Kosovo Serb police officers who refused to continue serving in the Kosovo police in protest of demands to change their Serbian license plates. In response, ethnic Serbs once again barricaded the roads into Serbian municipalities in northern Kosovo, and they have remained blocked for the past 16 days.Serbia requested that it be allowed to send up to 1,000 Serbian troops or police into northern Kosovo to protect the local ethnic Serb population, but after a week the NATO-led forces in Kosovo (KFOR) are still “evaluating” the request.

Serbia puts troops on ‘highest alert’ amid rising tensions with Kosovo - Serbian armed forces have been put on the "highest level of combat readiness" on the border with Kosovo amid increasingly strained relations between the two neighboring countries over recent shootings and blockades. “Serbia’s president (Aleksandar Vucic)… ordered this evening the Serbian army to be on the highest level of combat readiness, that is to the level of the use of armed force,” Serbia’s Defence Minister Milos Vucevic said in a statement on Monday. Vucevic added that President Vucic also ordered the special armed forces to be beefed up from the existing 1,500 to 5,000 amid heightened tensions. Serbia's Interior Minister Bratislav Gasic said he “ordered the full combat readiness” of police and other security units and that they be placed under the command of the army chief of staff according to “their operational plan”. In a statement, Gasic said he was acting on the orders of President Vucic so that “all measures be taken to protect the Serbian people in Kosovo”. These developments come after Serbian army chief General Milan Mojsilovic was sent to the border with Kosovo on Sunday, though it was not immediately clear what the new orders mean on the border where Serbian troops have been on alert for some time. "The situation there is complicated and complex," Mojsilovic was quoted as saying on Sunday. Tensions between the Balkan countries have inflamed since November when ethnic Serb workers in the Kosovo police as well as the judicial branch walked off the job over a controversial decision to ban Serbs living in Kosovo from using Belgrade-issued license plates. Serbia, which does not recognize Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence, has been threatening to use force against its former province. On December 10, Serbs in northern Kosovo set up barricades to protest against the arrest of a former policeman suspected of being involved in attacks against ethnic Albanian police officers. Just hours after the barricades were erected, Kosovo police said they suffered three successive firearm attacks on one of the roads leading to the border.

India to deploy ballistic missiles along borders with China, Pakistan amid tensions - India intends to deploy around 120 Pralay ballistic missiles along its borders with arch-foes China and Pakistan after recent clashes with Chinese troops at a contested border, according to reports citing defense sources. “A high-level meeting of the defense ministry cleared the acquisition of around 120 missiles for the armed forces and their deployment along the borders,” a senior defense source was on Monday quoted as saying by the news agency ANI. Developed by the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO), the quasi-ballistic surface-to-surface missile can take out targets from 150 to 500 km, the report stated, adding that they are extremely difficult to intercept for the enemy through interceptor missiles. The missile will reportedly be first inducted into the Indian Air Force followed by the Indian Army. According to defense watchers, such a missile system can be used for taking out long-range enemy air defense systems and also other high-value installations and weaponry, thus allowing New Delhi to target dual-use Chinese infrastructure and military bases on the Tibetan Plateau. The ANI described the reported development as a “major decision” for the country, which now has a policy of allowing the use of ballistic missiles in tactical roles and is considered a major development in the defense strategy of the country. Pralay, it noted, fills the gap of a conventionally armed ballistic missile that is not hampered by the "No First Use" nuclear policy. In early December, India's defense ministry reported brief clashes between the Indian army and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China in the Line of Actual Control (LAC) situated in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh in the Himalayas. India had accused Beijing, which did not confirm that the encounter took place, of trying to “unilaterally” change the status quo in the Himalayan border zone. Last week, New Delhi announced the deployment of a record number of troops to the area, calling it a response to the Chinese buildup. The territorial rivalry termed the Sino-Indian border dispute which separates the Indian-controlled territory from the Chinese-controlled territory is over the Indian claims over the entire Aksai Chin region and the Chinese claims over Arunachal Pradesh. India’s neighbors and geopolitical rivals, China and Pakistan, are both equipped with ballistic missiles that can be used for tactical roles and are also nuclear weapons enabled just like India. New Delhi also shares a longstanding border dispute with Islamabad over the Kashmir region, called the Line of Control (LoC) that divides Pakistan-controlled Kashmir from the Indian-controlled part. The two countries have fought three wars since 1947 over the disputed territory.

US-China Struggle for DR Congo Resources Intensifies -  As the US intensifies its efforts to cut China off from advanced semiconductors, it is also making a run at the world’s most important source of minerals used in tech: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The DRC is sometimes called the “the Saudi Arabia of the electric vehicle age” because it produces roughly 70 percent of the world’s cobalt, which is a key component in the production of lithium-ion batteries that power phones, computers, and electric vehicles. Electric vehicle sales are predicted to grow from 6.5 million in 2021 to 66 million in 2040.  The DRC is also Africa’s largest copper producer with some of the mines estimated to contain grades above 3 percent, significantly higher than the global average of 0.6 – 0.8 percent. It also has 70 percent of the world’s coltan, which is also critical to cell phone and computer manufacturing. All in all, it is estimated that the DRC has $24 trillion worth of untapped mineral resources. On Dec.13, the US signed deals with the DRC and Zambia (the world’s sixth-largest copper producer and second-largest cobalt producer in Africa) that will see the US support the two countries in developing an electric vehicle value chain. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US Export-Import Bank and the International Development Finance Corporation will explore financing and support mechanisms, and the US Agency for International Development, commerce department and Trade and Development Agency will provide technical assistance. Aside from a Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates-backed copper-cobalt mine in northern Zambia, details are sparse, but it does mark a major turning point for the DRC. For more than a decade, Chinese companies have spent billions of dollars buying out U.S. and European miners in the DRC’s Cobalt belt, leading to control of 15 of 19 of the primary cobalt mines in the country. China sources 60 percent of its cobalt needs from the DRC, and about 80 percent of the world’s cobalt processing occurs in China before being incorporated into lithium-ion batteries.The DRC-China relationship is on the rocks, however, and Chinese mining is starting to encounter an increasing amount of bumps in the road.

Covid in China: People rush to book travel as borders finally reopen - BBC News  - Chinese people have rushed to book overseas travel after Beijing announced it would reopen its borders next month.Passport applications for Chinese citizens wishing to travel internationally will resume from 8 January, the immigration administration said.It follows an announcement on Monday that ended almost three years of strict quarantine rules for arrivals.   Travel sites have since reported a spike in traffic.But Chinese tourists will not have unfettered access to all countries.Officials in the US are considering new restrictions on travellers from China due to concerns about a surge in cases and a lack of transparency from the Chinese government."There are mounting concerns in the international community on the ongoing Covid-19 surges in China and the lack of transparent data, including viral genomic sequence data," US officials said in a statement quoted by news agencies."Without this data, it is becoming increasingly difficult for public health officials to ensure that they will be able to identify any potential new variants and take prompt measures to reduce the spread."Japan - one of the most popular destinations for Chinese travellers - has announced that all travellers from China must show a negative Covid test on arrival, or quarantine for seven days, because of the surge in cases there.India has also said travellers from China (as well as some other countries) must show a negative Covid test when they arrive - though this was announced before Beijing's easing of restrictions. The easing of travel rules in China - the last part of the country's zero-Covid policy - comes as the country battles a new wave of infections. Resentment against the government's policy - which sparked rare public protests against President Xi Jinping in November - led to a relaxation of Covid restrictions across the country. But an increase in Covid cases followed, with reports of hospitals overwhelmed and a shortage of drugs.

Japan tests all China arrivals for COVID-19 amid surging cases - Japan on Friday started requiring COVID-19 tests for all passengers arriving from China as an emergency measure against surging infections there and as Japan faces rising case numbers and record-level deaths at home. Japan reported a record 420 new coronavirus deaths on Thursday, one day after reaching an earlier single-day record of 415 deaths, according to the Health Ministry. The numbers are higher than the daily deaths at the peak of an earlier wave in August, when they exceeded 300. Experts say the reason for the latest increase is unclear but could be linked to deaths from the worsening of chronic illnesses among elderly patients. Japan tightened its border measures on Friday, making the antigen test that was already conducted on entrants suspected of having COVID-19 mandatory for all people arriving from mainland China. Those who test positive will be quarantined for up to seven days at designated facilities and their samples will be used for genome analysis. The measures began ahead of the New Year holidays marked by travel and parties. Direct flights between China and Japan will be limited to four major Japanese airports for now, government officials said. Japan earlier this year stopped requiring COVID-19 tests for entrants who had at least three shots — part of the country’s careful easing of measures after virtually closing its borders to foreign tourists for about two years. This year’s holiday season is the first without virus restrictions other than recommendations for mask wearing and testing. The country is now reporting about 200,000 known daily cases.

Hong Kong asks Japan to drop airport bans, 60,000 travellers affected (Reuters) - Hong Kong has asked Japan to withdraw a COVID-19 restriction that allows passenger flights from the financial hub to land only at four designated airports, saying the decision would affect about 60,000 passengers. India, Italy, Taiwan and the United States require mandatory COVID-19 tests on travellers from China after Beijing's decision last month to lift stringent zero-COVID policies that fuelled a surge in infections across mainland China. Hong Kong, home to more than 7 million people, is recording around 20,000 coronavirus cases a day but lifted its COVID curbs on Thursday for the first time in three years. Japan, a top travel destination for those in Hong Kong, said it would limit flights from Hong Kong, Macau and mainland China to Tokyo's two airports, as well as Osaka and Nagoya, from Friday. The decision comes during a peak travel season ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday which begins on Jan. 21. "It is understood that around 250 outbound flights of Hong Kong airlines will be affected between December 30, 2022 and the end of January 2023, affecting around 60,000 passengers," the government said in a statement late on Wednesday. City leader John Lee said the government had indicated to Japan that it was disappointed. "We think that Hong Kong people should be allowed to use not just these four airports," Lee said. On Thursday, Hong Kong's government said Japan would let passenger flights from Hong Kong also land in Hokkaido, Fukuoka and Okinawa provided that no passengers aboard had been in mainland China for the prior seven days, but said the condition was "unreasonable". Flights of Hong Kong airlines can still carry passengers back to Hong Kong from airports in Japan, the government said, to ensure their smooth return and "minimise the impact to Hong Kong travellers caused by the incident."

South Korea imposes restrictions on travelers from China over COVID-19 surge -South Korea took steps on Friday to limit travelers from mainland China, imposing visa restrictions, testing requirements and limiting flights as Beijing grapples with a surge in COVID-19 infections. Seoul’s decision comes after countries including Italy, Japan, India and the United States announced their own measures, which they say are a bid to avoid importing new coronavirus variants from China. “Until the February next year, those entering (South Korea) from China will be required to undergo a Covid test before and after their arrivals,” Seoul’s Prime Minister Han Duck-soo said Friday. Travelers from China must provide a negative PCR test taken within 48 hours before boarding a plane to South Korea, or a negative antigen test within 24 hours before departure. They will also be required to undergo a PCR test within the first day of their arrival, Han said. Seoul is “inevitably strengthening some anti-epidemic measures to prevent the spread of the virus in our country due to the worsening COVID-19 situation in China,” Han added. China’s hospital have been overwhelmed by an explosion in cases after Beijing began unwinding hard-line controls that had torpedoed the economy and sparked nationwide protests. A growing number of countries have imposed restrictions on visitors from China after Beijing’s decision to end mandatory quarantine on arrival prompted many to book travel plans. Chinese citizens have been largely confined to their country since Beijing pulled up the drawbridge in March 2020. South Korea will also restrict the issuing of short-term visas to Chinese nationals, excluding public officials, diplomats and those with crucial humanitarian and business purposes, until the end of January next year. Seoul is scaling back the number of flights from China and all flights from the country will now have to land only at South Korea’s main Incheon International Airport, Han added.

Spain to require travelers from China test negative for COVID-19 or be fully vaccinated People traveling from China to Spain will be required to test negative for COVID-19 or prove they have been fully vaccinated against the disease, Spain’s top health official said on Friday. Earlier this month, China began dismantling the world’s strictest COVID regime of lockdowns and extensive testing in an abrupt change of policy. “At a national level, we will implement airport controls requiring all passengers coming from China to show a negative COVID-19 test or proof of a full vaccination course,” Health Minister Carolina Darias told reporters. The new measure comes after the European Union’s Health Security Committee met on Thursday to discuss the bloc’s common strategy to mitigate the spread of the virus with the influx of visitors from China after the Asian country lifted most of its travel restrictions. Darias added that Spain would coordinate at a high level with other member countries to adopt a common policy, while pushing for a revision of the current conditions that need to be met by travelers seeking to obtain the EU’s so-called Digital COVID Certificate. Earlier, countries such as Italy, South Korea, the United States, India and Japan have imposed mandatory testing for visitors from China. Chinese state media said on Friday the testing requirements imposed around the world in response to a surging wave of infections were “discriminatory.”

World Economy Headed For A Recession In 2023 - The world faces a recession in 2023 as higher borrowing costs aimed at tackling inflation cause several economies to contract. The world faces a recession in 2023 as higher borrowing costs aimed at tackling inflation cause several economies to contract, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research. The global economy surpassed $100 trillion for the first time in 2022 but will stall in 2023 as policymakers continue their fight against soaring prices, the British consultancy said in its annual World Economic League Table. “It’s likely that the world economy will face a recession next year as a result of the rises in interest rates in response to higher inflation,” said Kay Daniel Neufeld, director and head of Forecasting at CEBR. The report added that “The battle against inflation is not won yet. We expect central bankers to stick to their guns in 2023 despite the economic costs. The cost of bringing inflation down to more comfortable levels is a poorer growth outlook for several years to come.” The findings are more pessimistic than the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund. That institution warned in October that more than a third of the world economy will contract and there is a 25% chance of global GDP growing by less than 2% in 2023, which it defines as a global recession. Even so, by 2037, the world gross domestic product will have doubled as developing economies catch up with the richer ones. The shifting balance of power will see the East Asia and Pacific region account for over a third of global output by 2037, while Europe’s share shrinks to less than a fifth. The CEBR takes its base data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and uses an internal model to forecast growth, inflation, and exchange rates. China is now not set to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy until 2036 at the earliest — six years later than expected. That reflects China’s zero Covid policy and rising trade tensions with the west slow, which have slowed its expansion. CEBR had originally expected the switch in 2028, which it pushed back to 2030 in last year’s league table. It now thinks the cross-over point will not happen until 2036 and may come even later if Beijing tries to take control of Taiwan and faces retaliatory trade sanctions. “The consequences of economic warfare between China and the West would be several times more severe than what we have seen following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. There would almost certainly be quite a sharp world recession and a resurgence of inflation,” CEBR said. “But the damage to China would be many times greater and this could well torpedo any attempt to lead the world economy.” It also predicted that:

• India will become the third $10 trillion economy in 2035 and the world’s third-largest by 2032
• The UK will remain the world’s sixth largest economy, and France seventh, over the next 15 years but Britain is no longer set to grow faster than European peers due to “an absence of growth-oriented policies and the lack of a clear vision of its role outside of the European Union.”
• Emerging economies with natural resources will get a “substantial boost” as fossil fuels play an important part in the switch to renewable energy

Police seize on Covid-19 tech to expand global surveillance (AP) — Majd Ramlawi was serving coffee in Jerusalem’s Old City when a chilling text message appeared on his phone. “You have been spotted as having participated in acts of violence in the Al-Aqsa Mosque,” it read in Arabic. “We will hold you accountable.” Ramlawi, then 19, was among hundreds of people who civil rights attorneys estimate got the text last year, at the height of one of the most turbulent recent periods in the Holy Land. Many, including Ramlawi, say they only lived or worked in the neighborhood, and had nothing to do with the unrest. What he didn’t know was that the feared internal security agency, the Shin Bet, was using mass surveillance technology mobilized for coronavirus contact tracing, against Israeli residents and citizens for purposes entirely unrelated to COVID-19. In the pandemic’s bewildering early days, millions worldwide believed government officials who said they needed confidential data for new tech tools that could help stop coronavirus’ spread. In return, governments got a firehose of individuals’ private health details, photographs that captured their facial measurements and their home addresses. Now, from Beijing to Jerusalem to Hyderabad, India, and Perth, Australia, The Associated Press has found that authorities used these technologies and data to halt travel for activists and ordinary people, harass marginalized communities and link people’s health information to other surveillance and law enforcement tools. In some cases, data was shared with spy agencies. The issue has taken on fresh urgency almost three years into the pandemic as China’s ultra-strict zero-COVID policies recently ignited the sharpest public rebuke of the country’s authoritarian leadership since the pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989. For more than a year, AP journalists interviewed sources and pored over thousands of documents to trace how technologies marketed to “flatten the curve” were put to other uses. Just as the balance between privacy and national security shifted after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, COVID-19 has given officials justification to embed tracking tools in society that have lasted long after lockdowns. “Any intervention that increases state power to monitor individuals has a long tail and is a ratcheting system,” said John Scott-Railton, a senior researcher at the Toronto-based internet watchdog Citizen Lab. “Once you get it, is very unlikely it will ever go away.”

Nearly 1,700 journalists killed over past 20 years: RSF | Arab News - Nearly 1,700 journalists have been killed worldwide over the past 20 years, an average of more than 80 a year, according to an analysis published by Reporters Without Borders. The two decades between 2003 and 2022 were “especially deadly decades for those in the service of the right to inform,” said the Paris-based media rights campaigners. “Behind the figures, there are the faces, personalities, talent and commitment of those who have paid with their lives for their information gathering, their search for the truth and their passion for journalism,” RSF secretary-general Christophe Deloire said. Iraq and Syria were the most dangerous countries to work as a journalist, accounting for “a combined total of 578 journalists killed in the past 20 years, or more than a third of the worldwide total,” RSF said. They are followed by Mexico (125 killed), the Philippines (107), Pakistan (93), Afghanistan (81) and Somalia (78). The “darkest years” were 2012 and 2013, “due in large measure to the war in Syria.” There were 144 killings in 2012 and 142 the year after, the report said. This peak was “followed by a gradual fall and then historically low figures from 2019 onwards.” But deaths increased again in 2022, in part because of the war in Ukraine. So far this year, 58 journalists have been killed doing their jobs, up from 51 in 2021. Eight journalists have been killed in Ukraine since Russia invaded in February. This compares to a total of 12 media deaths there over the preceding 19 years. Ukraine is currently the most dangerous country in Europe for the media, after Russia itself, where 25 journalists have been killed over the past 20 years. “Since Vladimir Putin took over, Russia has seen systematic attacks on press freedom — including deadly ones — as RSF has repeatedly reported. “They include Anna Politkovskaya’s high-profile murder on 7 October 2006,” the rights group said. Elsewhere in Europe, Turkiye was ranked third most dangerous, followed by France “as a result of the massacre at the satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo in Paris in 2015.” Reporters run the greatest risks worldwide in areas where armed conflict has occurred. But, RSF stressed, “countries where no war is officially taking place are not necessarily safe for reporters and some of them are near the top of the list of those where killings have occurred. “In fact, more journalists have been killed in ‘zones at peace’ than in ‘zones at war’ during the past two decades, in most cases because they were investigating organized crime and corruption.”