Traders bet Fed rate hikes are over, cuts to start in 2024 | (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers are unlikely to raise interest rates again in 2023 and will probably start cutting them early next year, traders bet on Thursday, after a U.S. government report showed consumer prices rose only moderately last month. Traders of futures tied to the Fed's policy rate now see less than a 10% chance that the U.S. central bank will increase its benchmark overnight interest rate from its current 5.25%-5.50% range at a Sept. 19-20 policy meeting.They had seen about a 14% chance of a rate hike next month before the Labor Department report showed the July consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.2% from a year ago, following a 3% year-over-year increase in June.Traders are pricing in about a 28% chance of a rate hike by November, down from more than 30% before the release of the CPI report, with higher rates by December seen as even less likely. The Fed's first rate cut is priced into the futures contracts by March of 2024.The Fed has driven its policy rate up by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022 to bring inflation back down to its 2% goal. Analysts said July's slight acceleration in year-over-year consumer price inflation - its first in 13 months - was a mathematical artifact of the CPI's 40-year-high peak of 9% last year, and not an indication of worsening underlying trends."Assuming that the August print is somewhere in this vicinity ... I think this largely terminates the rate-hike cycle," said Guy Lebas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. "There's always a chance we get reacceleration of inflation prints after October, but I don't think that's going to spur Fed action."
Economist: ‘Don’t be fooled’ by the uptick in inflation - The latest inflation data could be a bit misleading to the untrained eye. But “don’t be fooled by the uptick,” said Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s chief economist. “Inflation is slowing, and doing so across a broader range of goods and services.” Headline inflation rose from 3% in June to 3.2% last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Thursday. But the rise was partly caused by changing year-over-year comparisons, and monthly data showed inflationary pressures are stabilizing. Pollak noted that if you annualized the latest inflation data instead of comparing it with last year, when inflation hit a four-decade high, it looks far less intimidating. In July, inflation was 2.52% on a six-month annualized basis and just 1.89% on a three-month annualized basis, she noted. That’s right around the Fed’s 2% target rate. Backing up that view was Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s CIO of global fixed income and head of the BlackRock global allocation investment team. “Today’s CPI [consumer price index] data depicted continued softening in the elevated inflation levels we have witnessed over the past couple of years,” he said, adding that “it’s not just encouraging that today’s report was softer, but also that the three- and six-month trends of these inflationary indicators are decisively lower.”Core inflation—which excludes more volatile food and energy prices and is often seen as a stronger indicator of true underlying inflation—also rose just 0.2% for the second straight month in July, marking the smallest back-to-back gain in the measure in over two years. Year-over-year core inflation remained elevated at 4.7%, again in part owing to base effects, but the trend there was “encouraging” as well, Pollak said.“Wage growth continues to outpace inflation,” she added. “As workers see their purchasing power improve, expect to see consumer spending continue to grow and the labor market continue to be resilient.”
Inflation in July: Central Tendency Down -by Menzie Chinn - Headline and core y/y CPI inflation undershoots slightly Bloomberg consensus (by 0.1%) (and below Cleveland Fed nowcast for headline of 0.4% m/m, see yesterday’s post). Overall, trend is down even if headline y/y is ticks up slightly. Figure 1: Annualized CPI inflation, year-on-year (bold black), quarter-on-quarter (tan), month-on-month (green), and instantaneous per Eeckhout, T=12, a=4 (bold red). Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.As discussed in Justin Ho’s Marketplace piece yesterday, the year-on-year calculation doesn’t show everything. In particular, q/q and m/m are down, as is the Instantaneous inflation measure (essentially a weighted average with higher weights on recent m/m inflation).On a month-to-month basis, other measures that attempt to get at trend inflation are also down, including the Cleveland Fed’s Trimmed and Median CPI rates. The Atlanta Fed’s stick price measure showed a slight uptick.Figure 2: Annualized month-on-month headline CPI inflation (bold black), core (bold tan) sticky price (green), 16% trimmed (pink), instantaneous per Eeckhout, T=12, a=4 (bold red). Source: BLS, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.Overall, this release seems largely in line with expectations. The wild card (short term) is likely energy.Gasoline prices are not likely to fall substantially, so that downward pressure on headline inflation is no longer present. Update, 8/10/23 noon PT: CEA Chair Jared Bernstein makes the same note. Update, 8/10/23, 1pm PT: And here’s a modified version of Figure 2, with Pawel Skrzypzcynski’s core svcs ex-shelter inflation rate (m/m). Figure 3: Annualized month-on-month headline CPI inflation (bold black), core (bold tan), and core services ex-shelter (bold light green). Source: BLS, Pawel Skrzypczynski, and author’s calculations.
How Extreme Temperatures Could Melt The U.S. Economy --Extreme heat is costing the United States economy billions of dollars each year. As weather patterns change around the world, heat waves are getting more frequent, more intense, and longer in duration. But many of the buildings and factories that the U.S. workforce spends its days in were not built with extreme heat in mind, and many lack air conditioning entirely, especially in the industrial sector. The result is a massive dip in productivity that is costing the United States billions of dollars on a yearly basis, and that price tage is only going to keep growing. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the frequency of heat waves in U.S. cities has increased steadily over the last 70 years, from two per year in the 1960s, to six per year this decade, while the duration of those heat waves has also increased by about one day on average. The season of heat waves has also increased significantly, with a window now 49 days longer than the heatwave season of the ‘60s. “ Timing can matter, as heat waves that occur earlier in the spring or later in the fall can catch people off-guard and increase exposure to the health risks associated with heat waves,” says the EPA. And while the heat waves of the dust bowl era of the 1930s remain the most intense in U.S. history, the average intensity is nonetheless statistically significantly higher now than ever before in 46 out of the 50 U.S. cities studied. The result of extreme heat does not just pose serious health and environmental risks, it also causes considerable economic hardship for indoor as well as outdoor industries as workers are less productive, make more mistakes, and are more prone to injury. As temperatures reach 90 degrees Fahrenheit, overall productivity decreases by about a quarter, and when temperatures top 100 degrees, productivity drops off a cliff, plummeting by an incredible 70 percent according to a 2021 study published in the International Journal of Biometeorology. Scientists have only recently begun to track and quantify exactly how the negative correlation between heat and productivity are impacting the economy writ large, but initial results show that the impacts are severe, sweeping, and going to get worse as the climate change continues its warming trajectory. “We’ve known for a very long time that human beings are very sensitive to temperature, and that their performance declines dramatically when exposed to heat, but what we haven’t known until very recently is whether and how those lab responses meaningfully extrapolate to the real-world economy,” R. Jisung Park, environmental and labor economist at the University of Pennsylvania, recently told the New York Times. “And what we are learning is that hotter temperatures appear to muck up the gears of the economy in many more ways than we would have expected.” While worker productivity may seem like a relatively small piece of the cost of climate change when compared to, say, flood damage, wildfires, and rising sea levels, it turns out that overheated laborers have a major impact on the economy as a whole. Data compiled by The Lancet shows that more than 2.5 billion work hours were lost in the United States in 2021 alone over the agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and service sectors as a direct result of heat exposure. Altogether, this lost productivity is costing the U.S. economy about $100 billion per year. While that may sound like a lot, it’s chump change compared to projected figures over the next decades as climate change worsens. By 2050, productivity losses due to heat exposure are expected to reach $500 billion annually. The impact of these economic losses will have a more adverse impact on poor parts of the United States than on more affluent ones. A 2021 study found that poor workers lose up to 5% of their pay on each hot day, while workers in wealthier areas lose less than one percent. “Temperature projections for 2040–50 suggest that earnings impacts may be 95% smaller for US counties in the richest decile relative to the poorest,” the paper found. “Considering the within-country distribution of vulnerability, in addition to exposure, to climate change could substantially change estimated within-country differences between the rich and poor in income losses from climate change.” This unequal impact of climate change on the rich and the poor holds true on an international scale as well. While the U.S. economy stands to lose a lot as a result of climate change, the risk for poor nations is much, much higher. It’s a cruel irony, as the most developed countries have contributed the most greenhouse gasses leading to climate change, but the poorest countries with the fewest historical emissions will suffer most.
US Government Shutdown Threat Builds in Post-Downgrade Fallout
- Fitch’s downgrade provides fresh ammo in the next fiscal fight
- An October shutdown would complicate Fed policy making
A fresh fiscal showdown is brewing in Washington that threatens to complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy making and strengthen Fitch Ratings’ warning that self-inflicted wounds are tarnishing America’s standing in the global economy. Congress left for an extended August recess without resolving simmering conflicts over spending and hotbutton social issues, raising the risk of a government shutdown when federal funding runs out after Sept. 30. It’s the latest case of brinkmanship over the national budget that fueled Fitch’s move to strip US debt of its prized AAA status last week — a landmark decision that’s caused hand-wringing across Wall Street and Washington.
Biden defense supplemental looms over government shutdown fight --- President Joe Biden’s new supplemental request for roughly $40 billion for additional assistance for Ukraine, funding for border policies, and disaster recovery efforts is teeing up a new fight as lawmakers head for a spending showdown this fall.The request, which senior administration officials say would cover "emergency funding needs" for the first quarter of 2024, includes $24 billion for Ukraine, $4 billion for southern border and immigration operations, $12 billion to replenish the Department of Homeland Security's disaster relief fund, and $60 million to boost firefighter pay. The move is already setting up a clash with the Republican-led House, where House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and other Republicans have said they will not approve aid to Ukraine for the next fiscal year. An influential block of hard-line House conservatives is having a major influence on the spending process, and as a result, McCarthy and GOP leaders are preparing bills with less spending than previously agreed to in an effort to win over the votes of these members.“No. This should be a non-starter for the House GOP,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) said in a statement. “It’s time to stand up for Americans and against the uniparty.”The request is expected to gain some bipartisan support, as some Republicans have been outspoken about the need to continue providing support to Ukraine. However,However, at least one senior GOP member told the Washington Examiner that Republicans do not have the votes to get a Ukraine supplemental across the line without Democratic help.“We applaud the Administration for putting forward a supplemental funding request that addresses each of these important issues facing our nation,” said Rep. Anne Kuster (D-NH). “Now, Congress must get it over the finish line.” Time is running out for lawmakers to approve funding before the existing U.S. aid for Ukraine is depleted. According to senior administration officials, funding could run out by the end of September. Congress has approved $113 billion in aid to Ukraine since the start of the war. The last time funding for Ukraine was authorized was back in December, before Republicans took control of the House.Funding for Ukraine has decreased in popularity among House Republicans in particular over the last couple of months. In a vote last month in the House, 70 Republicans voted in favor of an amendment that would have stripped all funding for Ukraine. Additional funding for the country is also not as popular with the public, with 55% of voters opposed to authorizing additional aid for Ukraine, according to a recent CNN poll.Senators on both sides of the aisle seem more inclined to support Biden’s ask. The debt ceiling deal that passed in both chambers in June limited Pentagon spending for the next two years, which was a major point of contention for defense hawks. The 99-page agreement limited overall national security spending in fiscal 2024 to $886 billion, roughly a 3% increase from current levels. In fiscal 2025, defense spending would be capped at $895 billion, a 1% increase from the previous year.“I look forward to carefully reviewing the Administration's request to make sure it is necessary and appropriate to keep America safe, secure our borders, support our allies, and help communities rebuild after disasters,” said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in a statement. “I supported the McCarthy-Biden deal, but I was not happy with the defense number,” McConnell said during a press conference with reporters. “The defense number is totally inadequate to meet the challenges that we have in Asia, not to mention Ukraine. I’m not sure right now how to fix it, but it’s a problem. It’s a serious problem that hopefully we’ll find some way over the course of the year to address.”Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) also endorsed the latest supplemental request from Biden, claiming there is “strong bipartisan support in the Senate.” The New York senator also foreshadowed some of the challenges for the two chambers to reconcile their funding requests.“We hope to join with our Republican colleagues this fall to avert an unnecessary government shutdown and fund this critical emergency supplemental request,” Schumer said.
House GOP weighs government shutdown escape hatch: A deal with Dems - If Speaker Kevin McCarthy has any hope of avoiding a shutdown this fall, he’ll probably need help from Democrats. But he’s not guaranteed to get it — at least not yet. By Sept. 30, House GOP leaders have to pass a major bipartisan spending deal or a short-term patch to keep the government open, with both options requiring cooperation from McCarthy’s hardliners. But those recalcitrant conservatives are signaling they’ll be loath to support either solution, almost certainly putting the onus on House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his Democrats to help avert disaster. “At some point we’ll have to deal with the reality that America is a two-party system. If we can’t do it on our own, there may come a point in time when you want to have to deal with Democrats,” said Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio), who leads the centrist Republican Governance Group and has been part of GOP spending talks. What’s more unusual this time, though, is that Democrats will probably need to do more than simply chip in to pass a bipartisan deal or a deadline extension. They’ll have to vote to help Republicans move any agreement to the House floor. That scenario carries plenty of potential pitfalls for a speaker who’s already on thin ice with his hard-right wing. McCarthy will need to survive the wrath of his conservatives if he calls a vote where large numbers of Democrats help the GOP agree to start debate on a spending plan that those hardliners oppose. His right-flank rebels’ threats to weaponize the House’s rule for debate — a procedural step that’s required in order to vote on any bill — could extend to more than just government spending. Democrats may have to step in to end a conservative blockade of several other high-stakes bills this fall, from a new farm bill to a foreign surveillance measure to Ukraine aid. On each of those items, senior Republicans widely acknowledge the difficulty of corralling their hard-right wing. Some of them also worry that Democrats won’t be in any mood to help them out of a bind on rules for debate, even if it means a shutdown. “If you’re the Democrats, what motivation do you have to want to help Republicans, who are now governing, achieve their goals and objectives?” a downbeat Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) said. “Unless they have this desire to save the country from itself, I don’t see them coming to the rescue on the rule, I don’t see them coming to the rescue on the votes,” Womack added. Privately, senior Democrats aren’t ruling out such a bailout. With lawmakers home and traveling over the August recess, Democratic leaders haven’t yet begun any formal conversations with Republicans on spending. Instead, they’re waiting to see what the GOP puts forward or can get over the finish line themselves next month, according to two Democrats granted anonymity to discuss internal conversations. Still, many acknowledge that their party will probably help support a stopgap funding bill — as long as McCarthy keeps it free of conservative poison pills, such as abortion and diversity-related measures, that the GOP has packed into several major pieces of legislation this year.
Biden Asks Congress for Additional $24 Billion to Spend on Ukraine War - The White House on Thursday asked Congress to approve a $40 billion billthat includes nearly $24 billion for additional spending on the war in Ukraine.According to CNN, the $24 billion for the Ukraine war includes $13 billion in military aid and $7.3 billion in economic and humanitarian assistance. It also includes $3.3 billion for infrastructure projects for regional countries impacted by the war.The request comes after a poll from CNN found that 55% of Americans are against more spending on the war in Ukraine.The $40 billion bill also includes $12 billion in domestic disaster relief and $4 billion for border security. Media reports have said the White Housewould try to add Taiwan aid to the spending package, but it was not included in the request.The funds will be in the form of an “emergency” supplemental package, a type of spending not limited by the debt ceiling deal reached between the White House and House Republicans.Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Congress has authorized $113 billion in spending on the war. If the new package is approved, the total will reach about $137 billion.
US Approves First Batch of M1A1 Abrams Tanks for Shipment to Ukraine - The first batch of Abrams tanks that the US is providing Ukraine was authorized for shipment over the weekend and is expected to arrive in the country in early fall, the US Army’s top acquisition official said Monday.“The last of the set was officially accepted by the US government or the production facility over the weekend. So they are done,” said Army Acquisition Chief Doug Bush, according to The War Zone.The US will be providing Ukraine with 31 refurbished M1A1 Abrams, an older variant of the tank. The US initially said it would send the newer M1A2 Abrams, but the Pentagon decided to speed up the plan by sending older tanks. The M1A2s needed to be manufactured and would have taken years to deliver.Bush said that while the tanks are ready, it will still take time to deliver them and send necessary related equipment, which includes “ammunition, spare parts, fuel equipment, repair facilities.”The Wall Street Journal reported in July that the US is expected to arm the Abrams it sends to Ukraine with depleted uranium rounds, a toxic ammunition that’s linked to cancer, birth defects, and environmental damage, especially in Iraq, where US forces used an enormous number of the controversial munitions. When asked about the possibility of sending depleted uranium to Ukraine, Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said Monday that he had nothing to announce. “I don’t have anything to provide, no announcements to make regarding any type of tank ammunition at this point,” he said.The UK has provided Ukraine with depleted uranium ammunition for its British-made Challenger 2 tanks. Russian President Vladimir Putin said his decision to deploy nuclear weapons to Belarus was a response to Britain giving Ukraine depleted uranium.
Delays Push F-16 Transfer to Ukraine Until Next Summer - Delays have caused the North Atlantic alliance to push back the expected arrival of F-16s in Ukraine until next summer. Currently, only six Ukrainian pilots are engaged in the training program. According to the Washington Post, the revised timeline reflects that Western countries see the F-16s as a part of Ukraine’s long-term defense but not necessary for the current conflict.Initially, the White House rejected plans to send F-16s to Ukraine. In May, President Joe Biden relented and said the US would not stand in the way of its allies providing the warplanes to Ukraine. After Biden reversed course, Kiev hoped to receive F-16s sometime in Spetember.Last month, White House officials said the US was “rushing” to get the warplanes to Ukraine, and it expected Kiev to have F-16s by the first quarter of 2024. On Friday, the Washington Post spoke with Ukrainian officials who said the timeline was deployed further until sometime next summer.Once F-16s start arriving in Ukraine, the impact could be limited by the number of pilots the West is training. According to two unnamed Ukrainian sources, only six pilots are enrolled in the first round of training, with two reserved candidates. The first step the pilots will undergo is four months of English lessons in the UK.The pilots will not begin combat training until January, a process expected to last at least six months. One Ukrainian official told the Post that the West is “dragging out” the process of providing F-16s to Kiev.The Post said the delay reflects the divide between Kiev and its Western backers. Washington and some countries who have agreed to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s view the plane as part of Ukraine’s long-term defensive needs. Brig. The Pentagon’s press secretary, Gen. Patrick Ryder, said, “F-16s are about our long-term commitment to Ukraine and are a capability that won’t be relevant to the current counteroffensive.”However, Kiev and other European countries have consistently complained that Ukraine lacks air power and has been pushed by NATO into launching a counteroffensive without a crucial military tool. “It “pi**es me off” when some in the West complain about the slow start and progress of the push against Russian forces,” Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhnysaid last month. “They are needed because there is no other way. Because the enemy is using a different generation of aviation.”
WSJ: American Cluster Bombs are Fueling Ukraine's Counteroffensive - The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that US-provided cluster bombs are fueling the Ukrainian counteroffensive and detailed how Ukrainian forces are using the civilian-killing munitions against Russian soldiers.Cluster bombs are designed to spread small submunitions over large areas. They are so harmful to civilians because some of the submunitions, or bomblets, do not explode on impact and can be found years or decades after their use.Ukrainian soldiers said they’re using cluster bombs to hit concentrations of Russian soldiers and vehicles. The Journal report said that cluster munitions have helped Ukraine capture some Russian positions but acknowledged the gains come at a high casualty cost.“The cluster bombs are good. They are effective,” said Capt. Anatoliy Kharchenko, commander of a Ukrainian reconnaissance company. “But the Russians are dug in deep, and they learn quickly.”The bombs won’t be enough to tip the balance of the war in Ukraine’s favor as the counteroffensive is struggling, and Western officials are saying it’s “highly unlikely” that Ukraine will succeed. But the cluster munitions are enough to keep the war going. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said Ukraine would be “defenseless” without them.Ukraine has struggled to break through Russian defenses due to vast minefields. A Ukrainian platoon commander told the Journal that they’ve been using “bodies” to clear the minefields. “It’s awful,” the platoon commander said.Other Ukrainian soldiers said the cluster bombs were useful in clearing trees and groundcover so they could better see the Russians. “With the cluster bombs, you fire three times, and the trees totally collapse,” an infantry private said. He said because submunitions are scattered across a large area, they don’t need to be fired accurately.Because of their indiscriminate nature, cluster bombs have been banned by over 100 nations, but the US, Ukraine, and Russia are not signatories to the treaty. Last year, the White House called the use of cluster bombs in the Ukraine war a “potential war crime.”
Tuberville says Ukraine can’t win war: ‘It’s a junior high team playing a college team’ In an interview with Fox News’s Laura Ingraham on Monday night, Tuberville touted his record voting against funding for Ukraine and said that, while he supported the country’s efforts over Russia, he thought Ukraine was outmatched and that no amount of funding would change that.“I haven’t voted for a dime to send Ukraine,” Tuberville told Ingraham. “I’m for Ukraine. Russia should have never done this. I was in Ukraine three months with President [Volodymyr] Zelensky before this started. They were already fighting to that point.”“But, at the end of the day, it’s a junior high team playing a college team,” he continued. “They can’t win. We can throw all the money we want to, but unless we send NATO and our troops over, which we’re not going to do, if I have got anything to do with it, then there’s no chance.” Tuberville’s comments come amid increasing concern that support for Ukraine might be waning among American voters and among Republicans in Congress.The Alabama senator offered his comments in response to a recent CNN poll showing that 55 percent of Americans thought Congress should not authorize additional funding for Ukraine.
Western Officials Tell CNN Ukraine's Counteroffensive 'Extremely Unlikely' to Succeed - A Western official told CNN in an article published Tuesday that it’s “extremely” unlikely that Ukraine will make progress in its counteroffensive in the coming weeks that will alter the balance of the war with Russia.“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” an unnamed senior Western diplomat said.Rep. Mike Quigley (D-IL) also spoke to CNN about the counteroffensive and said the briefings Congress has received on the assault are “sobering.” He said the situation was the “most difficult time of the war.”Leading up to the counteroffensive, the Discord leaks and media reports revealed that the US did not believe Ukraine could regain much territory.The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Western officials did not think Ukraine had enough weapons or equipment to dislodge Russian forces. But the Biden administration pushed for the assault anyway, as it rejected the idea of a ceasefire.Ukraine is struggling to break through multiple layers of Russian defense, most notably vast minefields. The Wall Street Journal quoted a Ukrainian platoon commander in an article published Tuesday who said the Ukrainians are “demining the fields with bodies,” demonstrating the massive human cost. “It’s awful,” the platoon commander said.Another Western diplomat told CNN that Ukraine hasn’t even gotten through Russia’s first defensive line. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard,” the diplomat said.
Poll: Most Americans Oppose More Spending on the Ukraine War - --The majority of Americans oppose additional spending on the war in Ukraine, according to a CNN poll that was released on Friday.The poll was conducted by SRSR from July 1-31, with a sample size of 1,279 respondents. It found that 55% of the respondents say Congress should not authorize more spending on the war in Ukraine, while 45% say more funds should be authorized.When asked if the US has done enough to support Ukraine, 51% said yes, and 48% said more should be done. The results show how support for the policy of backing Ukraine against Russia has waned as the conflict has dragged on. A poll conducted when Russia first invaded in February 2022 found 62% of respondents thought the US wasn’t doing enough. When asked about what type of support the US should provide Ukraine, only 17% of respondents favored sending in US troops for direct combat operations against Russia, which could quickly spiral into a nuclear war. The most popular type of support was assistance with intelligence gathering (63%), followed by military training (53%) and providing weapons (43%).More Republicans oppose additional aid for Ukraine than Democrats, as has been the theme in polls throughout the war. The poll found that 71% of Republicans are against Congress authorizing more spending on the war, and 59% believe the US has done enough. The majority of Democrats want the US to provide more support for Ukraine, with 62% in favor of new funding and 61% saying the US hasn’t done enough.So far, Congress has authorized $113 billion in spending on the war in Ukraine. The poll comes as the White House is expected to ask Congress this month to approve another spending package for Ukraine. According toFinancial Times, President Biden wants to include military aid for Taiwan in the new Ukraine aid bill as the US is increasingly focused on preparing for a future conflict with China.
Biden Signs Executive Order Banning Certain Investments in China - President Biden on Wednesday signed an executive order banning American investments in certain technologies in China, marking a significant escalation in the economic war against Beijing.The order prohibits American venture capital and private equity firms from investing in three technology sectors in China: semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum information technologies, and certain artificial intelligence systems.The order restricting investment in China has been years in the making, as Biden administration officials had been at odds on how far the executive action should go.A Biden administration official said the order also creates an outbound screening mechanism. The restrictions are being put in place under the guise of national security, and US officials insist they are not trying to hurt economically, only prevent China’s military from gaining access to US technology.But that’s not how Beijing views the restrictions and other sanctions the US has placed on China’s semiconductor industry. While the administration is trying to tone down its rhetoric, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has previously said that the US wants to work with other countries to “slow down China’s rate of innovation.”China is likely to respond to Biden’s order in some way as it has previous economic measures. After the US convinced the Netherlands and Japan to join in on sanctions restricting China’s access to technology needed to make advanced semiconductors, Beijing banned products from the US memory chip maker Micron.While the Micron ban was clearly a response to US sanctions, Raimondo blasted Beijing for the move, calling it “economic coercion.” More recently, China has restricted the export of gallium, a metal widely used in advanced microelectronics.Biden’s new order comes as US-China relations are at their lowest point since normalizing relations in 1979. Some ultra-China hawks in Congress are calling for cutting off all trade with China, which would likely take decades to achieve and would make war between the two powers much more likely.
Taiwan vice president to leave for sensitive trip to United States (Reuters) - Taiwan Vice President William Lai leaves on Saturday for a sensitive trip to the United States, which China has condemned and Taiwanese officials fear could prompt more Chinese military activity around the democratically governed island. Lai, the front-runner to become Taiwan's president in elections in January, is officially making only transit stops in the United States on his way to and from Paraguay for the swearing in of its president. Taipei and Washington say such stopovers are routine and no cause for China to take "provocative" actions, but Beijing has reacted with anger at what it sees as a further sign of U.S. support for Taiwan, which it claims as sovereign Chinese territory. China is likely to launch military drills next week near Taiwan, using Lai's stopovers in the United States as a pretext to intimidate voters ahead of a next year's election and make them "fear war", Taiwanese officials say. Beijing particularly dislikes Lai, who has in the past described himself as a "practical worker for Taiwan independence". Lai has, however, repeatedly said during the election campaign he does not seek to change the status quo. Lai, who goes first to New York, published a short video on his social media accounts late on Friday about his trip, mentioning only the Paraguay part, the country being one of just 13 to maintain formal ties with Taipei. He showed off what he will be taking with him, including the gift of a Garmin solar-powered GPS bike computer for Paraguay's new president, Santiago Pena, as well as neck cushions and baggage tags emblazoned with words including "Team Taiwan" in English and "Taiwan, your backer" in Chinese. "I hope, by serving as President Tsai Ing-wen's special envoy to Paraguay to participate in the inauguration ceremony of the new president, to convey the blessings of the people of Taiwan," he said. Neither Taiwan nor the United States have given exact details about his U.S. schedule. The U.S. State Department told Reuters that, consistent with past transits, Lai would meet the chair of the Virginia-based American Institute in Taiwan, a U.S. government-run non-profit that carries out unofficial relations with Taiwan.
US Eyes Australia as Missile Testing Ground - The US is considering using Australia as a missile testing ground as part of the AUKUS military pact, AFP reported on Wednesday.AUKUS is a three-way deal between the US, Britain, and Australia primarily focused on technology sharing with the goal of Canberra acquiring nuclear-powered submarines. The three nations have also announced their intention to jointly develop hypersonic missiles.US Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said Australia’s contribution to AUKUS “doesn’t have to be in dollars” and pointed to its vast uninhabited land as a testing ground for hypersonic and other types of long-range precision missiles.“A challenge for us in the United States when it comes to hypersonics or even some of our things like the precision strike missile — which is not a hypersonic weapon but has very long ranges in some of its increments — for us to find open spaces in the United States where we can actually test these weapons, it’s a challenge,” Wormuth told AFP.“Australia obviously has a tremendous amount of territory where that testing is a little bit more doable — so I think that’s a unique thing, as an example, that the Australians bring to the table,” she added.
Victoria Nuland Meets With Niger Junta Leaders - Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland traveled to Niger’s capital Niamey on Monday and held what she described as “difficult” talks with members of the junta that ousted Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum in a July 26 coup. “Traveled to Niamey to express grave concern at the undemocratic attempts to seize power and urged a return to constitutional order,”Nuland wrote on X, formally known as Twitter.Nuland spoke with reporters on the phone after her talks and said the “conversations were extremely frank and at times quite difficult because, again, we were pushing for a negotiated solution.” She said the coup leaders are “quite firm in their view on how they want to proceed, and it does not comport with the constitution of Niger.”Nuland said she met with Moussa Salaou Barmou, who has declared himself Niger’s defense chief, and three other colonels. Journalist Nick Tursereported for The Intercept that Barmou had previously received military training from the US, something Nuland mentioned in the call with reporters. “General Barmou, former Colonel Barmou, is somebody who has worked very closely with US Special Forces over many, many years,” she said. “So we were able to go through in considerable detail the risks to aspects of our cooperation that he has historically cared about a lot. So we are hopeful that that will sink in.”The Biden administration has said it paused assistance to Niger but has not officially declared the situation a coup since that would require cutting off all aid. The US has been cooperating militarily with Niger for many years and has about 1,100 troops in the country, along with a major drone base. The US has backed threats of military intervention to reinstate Bazoum made by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which is holding a second emergency summit on the coup this Thursday. Nuland did not mention potential military intervention in the call with reporters and was not asked about the possibility. She said the US hoped the junta would keep “the door open to diplomacy” but sounded doubtful that they would.Nuland said she spoke with Bazoum by phone but was denied a meeting with the ousted leader, who is being held under house arrest. She was also denied a meeting with Niger’s declared leader, Gen. Abdourahmane Tiani. “So we were left to have to depend on Mr. Barmou to make clear, again, what is at stake,” she said. Nuland said she also warned the junta against cooperation with Wagner, the Russian mercenary force. “I raised Wagner and its threat to those countries where it is present, reminding them that security gets worse, that human rights get worse when Wagner enters. I would not say that we learned much more about their thinking on that front,” she said.
Niger coup leaders refuse to let senior US diplomat meet with nation’s president (AP) — A senior U.S. diplomat said coup leaders in Niger refused to allow her to meet Monday with the West African country’s democratically elected president, whom she described as under “virtual house arrest.”Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland also described the mutinous officers as unreceptive to U.S. pressure to return the country to civilian rule.“They were quite firm about how they want to proceed, and it is not in support of the constitution of Niger,” Nuland told reporters. She characterized the conversations as “extremely frank and at times quite difficult.” She spoke after a two-hour meeting in Niger’s capital, Niamey, with some leaders of the military takeover of a country that has been a vital counterterrorism partner of the United States.In speaking to junta leaders, Nuland said, she made “absolutely clear the kinds of support that we will legally have to cut off if democracy is not restored.”If the U.S. determines that a democratically elected government has been toppled by unconstitutional means, federal law requires a cutoff of most American assistance, particularly military aid.She said she also stressed U.S. concern for the welfare of President Mohamed Bazoum, who she said was being detained with his wife and son.The meeting was with Gen. Moussa Salaou Barmou, a U.S.-trained officer, and three of the colonels involved in the takeover. The coup’s top leader, former presidential guard head Abdourahamane Tchiani, did not meet with the Americans.
Report: Niger Junta Told Nuland They'd Kill Bazoum If There's Military Intervention - The Associated Press reported Thursday that the Niger junta told Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland that they would kill deposed President Mohamed Bazoum if neighboring countries launched a military intervention to reinstate him.After meeting with junta leaders in Niger on Monday, Nuland did not mention the threat or discuss the possibility of military intervention. But she described the talks as “extremely frank and at times quite difficult” and sounded doubtful that the junta would relinquish power or release Bazoum.AP cited an unnamed Western military official who said the junta made the threat to Nuland. The report said that a US official confirmed the account.The US has backed threats from ECOWAS, a bloc of West African nations, to intervene militarily if Bazoum is not reinstated.ECOWAS held a summit in Nigeria on Thursday and ordered the activation of a reserve force to “restore constitutional order in the republic of Niger,” but it’s not clear if intervention is imminent. Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu, the ECOWAS chair, also said the use of force is a “last resort.”A military intervention could spark a major regional war as Mali and Burkina Faso have warned they would support the Niger junta. The US and France would likely be involved as they each have over 1,000 troops in Niger.
Over 3,000 US Marines and Sailors Arrive in Middle East in Deployment Aimed at Iran - Over 3,000 US Marines and Navy sailors arrived in the Middle East on Sunday as part of a previously announced deployment aimed at Iran as tensions are rising in the region.The troops are part of an Amphibious Readiness Group/Marine Expeditionary Unit (ARG/MEU) and arrived onboard the amphibious assault ship USS Bataan and dock landing ship USS Carter Hall. The vessels entered the Red Sea on Sunday after transiting through the Suez Canal.Responding to the deployment, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani accused the US military of fueling regional instability. “The US government’s military presence in the region has never created security. Their interests in this region have always compelled them to fuel instability and insecurity,” he said. “We are deeply convinced that the countries of the Persian Gulf are capable of ensuring their own security.”US Naval Central Forces Central Command said the deployment is a response to “harassment and seizures of merchant vessels.” Iran seized two tankers in the Persian Gulf earlier this year, but the incidents were provoked by the US seizing a tanker carrying Iranian oil.Under the pretext of sanctions enforcement, the US Justice Department seized the Greek tanker Suez Rajan in April and forced the ship to head for Texas instead of China as the US intended to steal the 800,000 barrels of Iranian oil it was carrying. According to recent media reports, US companies are hesitant to discharge the oil because they fear reprisal from Iran in the Persian Gulf, and the Suez Rajan is stuck off the coast of Texas.Tensions have soared in the Persian Gulf since April, and the US has announced a series of deployments meant to deter more Iranian seizures. Last month, the US claimed it stopped Iranian forces from seizing two commercial vessels near Oman. The US military is now considering placing armed troops on commercial vessels, an unprecedented move that would significantly heighten the risk of a direct clash with Iran.
America’s Supersized Military: “The Greatest Fighting Force in Human History” - In his message to the troops prior to the July 4th weekend, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin offered high praise indeed. “We have the greatest fighting force in human history,” he tweeted, connecting that claim to the U.S. having patriots of all colors, creeds, and backgrounds “who bravely volunteer to defend our country and our values.” As a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel from a working-class background who volunteered to serve more than four decades ago, who am I to argue with Austin? Shouldn’t I just bask in the glow of his praise for today’s troops, reflecting on my own honorable service near the end of what now must be thought of as the First Cold War? Yet I confess to having doubts. I’ve heard it all before. The hype. The hyperbole. I still remember how, soon after the 9/11 attacks, President George W. Bush boasted that this country had “the greatest force for human liberation the world has ever known.” I also remember how, in a pep talk given to U.S. troops in Afghanistan in 2010, President Barack Obama declared them “the finest fighting force that the world has ever known.” And yet, 15 years ago at TomDispatch, I was already wondering when Americans had first become so proud of, and insistent upon, declaring our military the world’s absolute best, a force beyond compare, and what that meant for a republic that once had viewed large standing armies and constant warfare as anathemas to freedom. In retrospect, the answer is all too straightforward: we need something to boast about, don’t we? In the once-upon-a-time “exceptional nation,” what else is there to praise to the skies or consider our pride and joy these days except our heroes? After all, this country can no longer boast of having anything like the world’s best educational outcomes, or healthcare system, or the most advanced and safest infrastructure, or the best democratic politics, so we better damn well be able to boast about having “the greatest fighting force” ever. Leaving that boast aside, Americans could certainly brag about one thing this country has beyond compare: the most expensive military around and possibly ever. No country even comes close to our commitment of funds to wars, weapons (including nuclear ones at the Department of Energy), and global dominance. Indeed, the Pentagon’s budget for “defense” in 2023 exceeds that of the next 10 countries (mostly allies!) combined. And from all of this, it seems to me, two questions arise: Are we truly getting what we pay so dearly for — the bestest, finest, most exceptional military ever? And even if we are, should a self-proclaimed democracy really want such a thing?The answer to both those questions is, of course, no. After all, America hasn’t won a war in a convincing fashion since 1945. If this country keeps losing wars routinely and often enough catastrophically, as it has in places like Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, how can we honestly say that we possess the world’s greatest fighting force? And if we nevertheless persist in such a boast, doesn’t that echo the rhetoric of militaristic empires of the past? (Remember when we used to think that only unhinged dictators like Adolf Hitler boasted of having peerless warriors in a megalomaniacal pursuit of global domination?)
USAF Conducts First-AI Flight With Stealth Drone - The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) completed the first-ever flight of an AFRL-developed stealth drone powered by artificial intelligence software. On July 25, the machine-learning-trained, artificial intelligence-powered XQ-58A Valkyrie flew a three-hour sortie at Florida's Eglin Air Force Base. "The mission proved out a multi-layer safety framework on an AI/ML-flown uncrewed aircraft and demonstrated an AI/ML agent solving a tactically relevant "challenge problem" during airborne operations," said Col. Tucker Hamilton, chief, of AI Test and Operations, for the Department of the USAF.Hamilton continued, "This sortie officially enables the ability to develop AI/ML agents that will execute modern air-to-air and air-to-surface skills that are immediately transferrable to other autonomy programs."Eglin has become the testing ground for advanced autonomous systems within the USAF. Last November, the service received two Valkyrie stealth drones assigned to the 40th Flight Test Squadron."AI will be a critical element to future warfighting and the speed at which we're going to have to understand the operational picture and make decisions," Brig. Gen. Scott Cain, the lab's commander, said in the announcement.Cain noted, "AI, Autonomous Operations, and Human-Machine Teaming continue to evolve at an unprecedented pace and we need the coordinated efforts of our government, academia, and industry partners to keep pace."AFRL provided no specifics about onboard systems or what type of missions the stealth drone would replace, usually performed by piloted aircraft. This comes as the world is locked in an AI arms race, and bilateral relations between the US and China continue to sour. In June, an AI-enabled drone turned on and "killed" its human operator during a simulated USAF test. The future is clear: unmanned intelligent drones are set to wreak havoc on the modern battlefield.
Biden-backed hackers in Las Vegas are attacking the biggest AI models, starting Friday - On Friday, in hotels across Las Vegas, some of the world’s most powerful artificial intelligence systems will come under simultaneous attack by a small army of hackers trying to find their hidden flaws.The White House is not only aware of the public assault — it’s endorsing it.In May, the Biden administration threw its support behind a deliberate, coordinated test attack on AI systems, called red-teaming, set to play out over three days at an annual hacker convention this weekend. Several leading AI companies, including OpenAI, Google and Meta, agreed to have some of their latest and most powerful AI systems attacked for the exercise.The hacker attack highlights what has become one of the White House’s key concerns about the powerful, fast-growing new AI models: How secure they really are, and whether they could pose a threat either to American citizens, or to national security on the global stage.“Our framing — and this comes from the president — is that to to harness the opportunities of AI, we first need to manage the risks, too,” said Alan Mislove, a senior official at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy who helped the hacking challenge organizers develop this weekend’s red teaming exercises. “For things like large language models, those risks are quite broad, in many cases can be less clear than other systems,” and “cover our society, our economy, national security,” he said.As Congress struggles to pin down what new laws to pass on AI, and federal agencies flex their existing authorities over an emerging technology, the Biden White House has emerged as the most active player on AI policy. It has drafted an AI Bill of Rights framework, convened tech CEOs, and held a series of press conferences on the wide range of threats and opportunities presented by the technology.Though these threats range across society, from job loss to discrimination to misinformation, many of the White House’s most tangible steps have focused on the security issue. Its new special adviser for AI, Ben Buchanan, has a national security rather than a technical background. When the White House convened AI leaders to announce a set of voluntary commitments last month, “safety” topped the list, and security played a key role through the document.The high priority on security reflects the anxiety — among experts, regulators and the industry itself — that the complex new AI systems present a range of new issues not fully understood, from their potential to be hacked and misdirected by an adversary, to the idea that they could expose user data, to darker uses like building bioweapons.“It’s possible to get these models to do things that their designers and vendors do not anticipate or do not want them to be able to do. So yes, I think there are real security considerations,”
Senate Democrat: Tuberville ‘prepared to burn the military down’ with promotions blockade - Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) on Tuesday accused Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) of being “prepared to burn the military down” with his hold on hundreds of military promotions over the Pentagon’s abortion policy. Murphy told reporters at the Capitol that he is hoping Senate Republicans will work with Democrats after the August recess to come up with a “creative solution” to pass a batch of military promotions en bloc in an attempt to bypass Tuberville’s hold, which entered its fifth month Tuesday. “I think everybody’s been hoping that Sen. Tuberville would back down, and I think we have to come to the conclusion that that is not happening and that he is prepared to burn the military down,” Murphy said after gaveling the Senate in and out during Tuesday’s pro forma session. “Maybe Republicans were hopeful that leading up to the August break he would relent. He didn’t, and we now have to adjust our strategy.” Senate Republicans were unable to strike a deal with the Alabama senator to break the hold prior to the August recess, which has virtually ensured that the hold will stretch until early September at least. In the meantime, nearly 300 military holds remain, including for Senate-confirmed officers to lead the Army and the Marine Corps.
‘Dangerous pivot’ on overseas oil and gas deals splits Biden administration - The Biden administration is retreating from its promises to stop funding oil and gas projects overseas, triggering a split among senior officials over whether to prioritize climate change or the diplomatic alliances the White House has deemed critical to counter Russia and China. Federal agencies have approved funding for proposals like renovations to an Indonesian oil refinery and shipments of natural gas to Poland — sometimes over the objections of President Joe Biden’s special climate envoy, John Kerry, and Democratic lawmakers. The policy shift shows how the fraught global political situation caused by the war in Ukraine and Washington’s tense rivalry with Beijing is threatening environmental goals. Democratic lawmakers and environmentalists fear the change could erode U.S. climate leadership as greenhouse gas emissions rise steadily and temperatures soar. “The Biden administration continues to approve one fossil project after another, which completely undermines our international dialogue for a faster transition to renewables and undermines our credibility,” said Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), who along with Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) has pressed the White House for information on its policy for funding the oil and gas projects. But defenders of the shift say it is a pragmatic change that acknowledges European allies are dependent on Russian energy exports and developing nations are wary of China’s growing influence. “No one’s overlooking the climate consequences of these policies, but they are being weighed against the broader foreign policy, economic policy and security policies in United States,” said Landon Derentz, who worked on international energy policy at State, the Energy Department and the White House during the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations before leaving last year. The White House did not provide a comment for this story.
Many disapprove of Biden’s handling of climate, Post-UMD poll finds - Nearly one year after President Biden enacted a sprawling package to combat harmful emissions and boost clean energy, his administration is struggling to demonstrate the law’s value to weary voters — and stave off a widening array of new political threats. Most Americans — 57 percent — disapprove of Biden’s handling of climate change, according to a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll, which also finds that few adults say they know a good amount or great deal about the Inflation Reduction Act, a law that includes massive new investments in response to global warming. The low approval and lack of public awareness underscore Biden’s top challenge entering the 2024 presidential race, as he tries to sell an unknowing electorate on an agenda that — in the eyes of the White House — has created jobs, boosted manufacturing and lowered costs for families. The Inflation Reduction Act couples the largest-ever tranche of climate funding with new government programs that aim to lower prescription drug costs for seniors and pursue unpaid federal taxes. Democrats adopted the spending package last August, overcoming more than a year of fierce bickering inside their own ranks — and the staunch, unanimous objections of their Republicans foes. With the work to implement the sprawling law now underway, the White House has sought to emphasize its early economic returns. That includes more than $110 billion in new investments to expand clean energy technology and manufacturing, according to data released separately by the administration on Monday, which tallied private-sector commitments announced in the 11 months since Biden signed the measure. But the president’s pitch to sell these and other achievements to the public often has not resonated. Generally, voters today appear to have little confidence in either party to respond to global warming, according to the Post-UMD poll. Asked how much they trust Republicans to address climate change, 74 percent say either “not much” or “not at all,” compared with 59 percent who say the same of Democrats.
NYC mayor hasn't spoken to Biden since 2022 amid migrant crisis - — Mayor Eric Adams said late Wednesday he has not talked with President Joe Biden in 2023 — a striking admission for someone who was once on a list of the president’s top surrogates and who is seeking federal help for the city’s migrant crisis.Adams told CNN that he and the president have not conferred since Biden was in New York last year, but added that his team has been talking with White House and other immigration officials about the flow of migrants to New York City shelters. He said he still supports the president’s reelection.“I believe he’s moving the country in the right direction, and we need to continue to move in the right direction,” Adams said. “And I can separate what I believe [is] an issue that we disagree on.”The two initially seemed to hit it off.When still the Democratic nominee, Adams visited the White House andreferred to himself as the “Biden of Brooklyn.” And in 2022, the year Adams officially became mayor, Biden visited New York several times, including an appearance with Adams about fighting crime and seizing guns. Ahead of the visit, Adams mused: “I’m sure if you were to ask him what is his favorite mayor, he would clearly tell you, ‘It’s Eric.’” In March of this year, Adams was listed among 20 Democrats who would sit on a national advisory board and serve as key validators for the president’s bid for a second term.However, a month later the mayor’s frustrations with the asylum-seeker situation boiled over.At an April press conference, he said the White House had failed the city, a statement that kicked off weeks of pointed criticism of the president from Adams on an issue that will be top of mind for voters during Biden’s reelection campaign.In May, when the Biden campaign released a list of 50 surrogates for Biden, the outspoken New York City mayor was not among them.The fraying of relations between the two comes as the city is taking on an ever-growing role in the migrant crisis. On Wednesday, Adams said his administration could spend up to $12 billion providing services to arriving asylum-seekers and again pleaded for assistance from the federal government — albeit in terms less hostile to the White House.So far, the mayor’s entreaties to Biden for work authorization, funding and a more coherent resettlement strategy at the border have gone largely unanswered, though the president dispatched Tom Perez, the director of White House intergovernmental affairs, to meet with Adams on Thursday morning about the issue, according to a New York Post report.
Alejandro Mayorkas impeachment effort losing steam in the House GOP - House Republicans once regarded Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas as their easiest impeachment target. Yet even that seems increasingly out of reach. Centrist Republicans were never quite sold on impeaching the secretary over problems at the border, nor aligned with their colleagues’ belief that Mayorkas lied to lawmakers at a committee hearing. Now, some of the most vocal Republicans pushing to remove him are acknowledging they’re finding GOP skeptics virtually immovable. Even Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who thrilled conservatives last year when he opened the door to impeachment proceedings, is signaling he’s still not convinced.“The only time you use impeachment is if someone has done something that rises to impeachment,” McCarthy told POLITICO, noting that committees are still investigating Mayorkas. It’s a sign McCarthy hasn’t totally bowed to his conservative wing, even as he’s feeding their hopes of potential impeachment inquiries into Attorney General Merrick Garland and President Joe Biden. But centrists and their allies across the conference, already bearish about Mayorkas efforts, are even less enthusiastic about actually attempting to boot those two from office. They’ve supported investigations but have warned that actually taking those votes without proof of wrongdoing could mean the party loses the House next term. On paper, there are also plenty of reasons a Mayorkas impeachment could still be in play. Border crossing arrests increased in July, though a DHS spokesperson noted illegal crossings generally remain lower compared to recent months. And a key committee investigating Mayorkas is preparing to roll out its findings this fall, which could fold into any impeachment effort. Behind the scenes, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and others have lobbied leadership and their colleagues to move forward for months.“Some of my colleagues get hung up on high crimes and misdemeanors in a way that they don’t want to take that step with respect to Mayorkas. I disagree,” said Roy, a prominent member of the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus. But other House Republicans acknowledge that, anecdotally, they aren’t hearing as much about the idea of impeaching Mayorkas from their colleagues. And Roy, though he insisted they’ve made progress, admitted the votes just might not exist in the narrow House majority.
Biden's health care wins are being undone — and at the worst possible time - The U.S. is dismantling one of the last major pillars of its Covid-era safety net. For President Joe Biden, the timing couldn’t be worse. States across the country, both blue and red, are purging their Medicaid programs of millions of low-income enrollees for the first time in three years, after a pandemic policy meant to prevent vulnerable people from suddenly losing health coverage expired earlier this spring. Nearly 4 million Americans have been cut from Medicaid in the last three months, most of whom lost their insurance over paperwork issues. The number is projected to balloon to 15 million by this time next year, according to official estimates, though some now fear the final toll will be even bigger. The mass terminations, which together represent the biggest reshuffling of the health insurance landscape since Obamacare, come as Covid cases rise again and Biden embarks on a reelection campaign built around convincing working-class voters they’re better off than before. The impact is likely to reverse meaningful progress on health coverage and poverty that the White House once trumpeted as a direct benefit of its policies. And with Biden already facing entrenched skepticism over the state of the economy, allies increasingly worry the drumbeat of coverage losses will undercut his core message that “Bidenomics” is driving the biggest gains for those who have the least. “This is a huge challenge and an unprecedented situation,” said Joan Alker, executive director of Georgetown University’s Center for Children and Families. “It’s both unlucky and an unfortunate risk for the Biden administration that we’re going to see the uninsured rate go up as a consequence.” Congress ordered states in early 2020 to halt requirements that Medicaid enrollees renew their coverage each year, ensuring poor Americans would remain continuously insured throughout the Covid crisis. The Medicaid population swelled to a record 93 million as a result — with 1 in 4 Americans insured by the program. But when Congress ended that protection in April ahead of the expiration of the Covid public health emergency, states began combing their Medicaid rolls in search of those who no longer qualified because they make too much money or another factor, like pregnancy or parenting status, has changed. Florida kicked more than 400,000 people out of Medicaid in its first three months. Texas dropped over half-a-million people in a single month, with the vast majority cut off for failing to submit the required paperwork, rather than an official determination they were ineligible. And in Arkansas, where GOP Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders’ administration is taking six months to complete its eligibility review, more than 300,000 have lost coverage — including more than 108,000 children. “It’s so much worse than I thought,” said Trevor Hawkins, an attorney with Legal Aid of Arkansas. “The system is just so flawed that it’s causing way too many people to lose coverage that it shouldn’t be. I did not think that they would consistently across three months terminate 60,000-plus people. That number is — I just can’t wrap my mind around it.” Arkansas health officials have said they are working to comply with normal eligibility rules set by Congress and the administration. “This is exactly how the system is supposed to work: we are ensuring that benefits remain available for Arkansans who truly need them, and we are also working to make sure those who no longer qualify know about available options for health care coverage,” said Kristi Putnam, Arkansas’ Department of Human Services secretary. Inside the Biden administration, officials say they’ve made it a top priority to pressure states to correct errors and minimize coverage losses. They downplay the political peril, insisting that the behind-the-scenes work is having substantial impact across the country.
Biden administration warns states as millions lose Medicaid - The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services is ramping up pressure on states that may be failing to meet federal requirements as they renew Medicaid coverage for millions of people for the first time since the start of the pandemic.The agency has for months been mum about its behind-the-scenes communications with states, but on Wednesday made public letters it sentto state Medicaid officials warning that they may be running afoul of federal law and regulations. The letters, which were sent to all 50 states and Washington, D.C., identified three key areas of concern: high rates of people losing Medicaid because of paperwork problems, long call center wait times and slow application processing.Thirty-six states were flagged as falling short on at least one of the criteria, including five — Alaska, Florida, Montana, New Mexico and Rhode Island — that fell short on all three.The criteria don’t reflect all potential challenges with states’ unwinding processes, the letters are only based on data reported by states in May and some states are missing data.Still, CMS’ decision to make the letters available online represents a sharp about-face for an agency that has refused for months to single out any state it believes may be violating federal law — or even name specific criteria that would trigger stronger action against states — for fear of damaging its relationships with them.“It looks like this is certainly part of the paper trail to move to more explicit and hopefully rigorous enforcement activities,” said Joan Alker, executive director and co-founder of Georgetown University’s Center for Children and Families. “It’s a positive sign that CMS is becoming more transparent about their enforcement activities.”It also comes as the agency faces increasing pressure both from Congress and state-level advocates who are alarmed by the high rates of coverage losses and have called on the agency to take more forceful action for noncompliant states, like yanking federal funding.More than 4 million people have had their Medicaid benefits terminated in the last four months, including nearly three-quarters who have lost coverage because of paperwork problems.
I’ll Just Crush the Stupid Stuff in the Social Media about Disability Claims. In Reality, Claims Dropped to 20-Year Low while People with a Disability Are Employed in Record Numbers by Wolf Richter --So, there’s this stupid BS washing over the internet that disability claims have been spiking and that these spiking disability claims somehow hide the true nature of unemployment, or whatever. So I’m going to crush that with data: People with a disability are working in record numbers, while disability claims have dropped to a 20-year low, and people receiving disability benefits per 1,000 insured workers have dropped to a 40-year low.The acceptance in Corporate America of working from home on a scale never seen before and the tight labor market over the past few years has been hugely beneficial for people with a disability who now no longer need to struggle with arduous or impossible commutes, and who may have special medical needs that are easier to attend to at home.The number of people “with a disability” who were working in July jumped to 7.76 million, the highest in the data going back to 2008, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday as part of its employment report. This was up by 2.0 million, or by 35%, from just before the pandemic in January 2020! The number of people with a disability in the labor force – either looking for work or working – spiked by 34%, or by 2.1 million people, since January 2020, to a record 8.3 million! Their number started rising in early 2021 amid the new flexibility by employers about working from home and a historic demand for labor and labor shortages. These are huge gains that people with a disability have made in the labor market. Having these additional 2.1 million people in the labor force, who weren’t there in January 2020, is a big benefit for the US economy on all kinds of levels. …while disability claims dropped to a two-decade low. The number of people who applied for disability benefits in the calendar year 2022 dropped to 1.79 million, the lowest since 2002, according to the Social Security Administration (SSA), which administers the Disability Program. Note how the long drop since 2009 is now flattening out. Obviously, it’s not going to zero. This plunge of 39% since 2010 occurred even as the total US population has increased by 16%! On a quarterly basis through Q2 2023, disability claims have flattened out at very low levels. We see this in the annual chart above. This data is volatile with big swings from quarter to quarter: Disability awards – people actually getting approved for disability benefits – dropped to 543,400 in the calendar year 2022, the lowest in over 30 years, despite 30 years of population growth, and down by roughly half since 2010: Disability awards in relationship to insured workers has plunged to 3.4 disability awards per 1,000 insured workers, a 40 years low. Only 1982 was lower, in the data that goes back to 1981: The number of Disability Beneficiaries dropped to 15-year low. At the end of calendar year 2022, the total number of people being paid disability benefits dropped to 7.60 million, the lowest since 2008. So far this year, the number dropped further to 7.52 million in June (green).
IRS unable to locate millions of tax records, watchdog says - The IRS lost track of millions of sensitive individual and business tax records that should have been transferred from a closed agency facility in California and is also unable to locate thousands of records that were stored at a facility in Utah, according to a new watchdog report. As part of a review of the IRS’ mandatory storage of old tax records in microfilm backup cartridges, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration said in a report released Thursday that it found significant deficiencies in safeguarding and accounting for millions of tax records that contain sensitive taxpayer information. The watchdog said it found seven empty boxes at the IRS’ facility in Ogden, Utah, that should have contained as many as 168 microfilm cartridges, which hold up to 2,000 photographic images each, and that the IRS personnel there were unable to point to the location of the cartridges. TIGTA noted that this may be because the vendor responsible for creating the cartridges went out of business abruptly in 2018. The IRS also can’t find any cartridges containing tax records from fiscal year 2010 that were supposed to be transferred to its Kansas City processing center from its processing center in Fresno, Calif., when it shut down in 2021. “The personal taxpayer and tax information included on these backup cartridges is key information that can be used to commit tax refund fraud identity theft,” the report said. The IRS has come under fire before by Republicans for improper handling of taxpayer information, such as its destruction of 30 million paper tax returns in March of 2021 during the height of the pandemic that subsequently caused an outcry from the tax community. GOP lawmakers have likewise hounded the agency to explain how nonprofit news organization ProPublica got its hands on a trove of thousands of tax returns from the nation’s wealthiest people that it used for a June 2021 exposé. The IRS watchdog further said that agency personnel have not been doing required annual inventories of the microfilm cartridges and urged the IRS to better restrict access to the tax records. The cartridges at the Ogden facility are stored on open shelving in the middle of a large warehouse, TIGTA noted.
Supreme Court reinstates regulation of ghost guns, firearms without serial numbers (AP) — The Supreme Court is reinstating a regulation aimed at reining in the proliferation of ghost guns, firearms without serial numbers that have been turning up at crime scenes across the nation in increasing numbers.The court on Tuesday voted 5-4 to put on hold a ruling from a federal judge in Texas that invalidated the Biden administration’s regulation of ghost gun kits. The regulation will be in effect while the administration appeals the ruling to the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans — and potentially the Supreme Court.Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett joined with the court’s three liberal members to form the majority. Justices Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Clarence Thomas would have kept the regulation on hold during the appeals process. Neither side provided an explanation.
Dems revive calls for Clarence Thomas resignation, Supreme Court ethics reforms after new ProPublica report - Democratic lawmakers revived their calls for Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas to resign from his position Thursday after a new ProPublica report revealed he had taken more unreported luxury vacations funded by billionaires than was previously known.“Justice Thomas has brought shame upon himself and the United States Supreme Court with his acceptance of massive, repeated and undisclosed gifts,” Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) said on X, formerly known as Twitter. “No government official, elected or unelected, could ethically or legally accept gifts of that scale. He should resign immediately.”As the high court continues to see record-low public approval and aDemocratic-led effort to impose ethics reforms, ProPublica reported Thursday that wealthy benefactors have gifted Thomas at least 38 destination vacations, 26 private jet flights, multiple VIP passes to sporting events and two resort stays during his time on the court — a higher number of billionaire benefactors than was previously reported. Ethics experts, ProPublica reported, said the failure to disclose travel and sports could amount to a legal violation.“While some of the hospitality, such as stays in personal homes, may not have required disclosure, Thomas appears to have violated the law by failing to disclose flights, yacht cruises and expensive sports tickets, according to ethics experts,” the report says.At least four other House Democrats also called for Thomas’ resignation, including Reps. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Bill Pascrell (D-N.J), Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) and Hank Johnson (D-Ga.). “Unprecedented. Stunning. Disgusting. The height of hypocrisy to wear the robes of a #SCOTUS and take undisclosed gifts from billionaires who benefit from your decisions,” Jayapal posted on X. “Resign.”
McCarthy dodges Hannity’s questions on Biden ‘bribery scandal’ -Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on Monday declined to label the GOP-led investigation into President Biden a “bribery scandal.” Republican investigators for months have cited an FBI form that contains an unverified tip alleging that Biden, as vice president, was involved in a bribery scheme to benefit Burisma, the Ukrainian energy company that his son, Hunter Biden, sat on the board of. The White House has denied any wrongdoing, and Republicans have been unable to corroborate the claims.Republicans released a copy of the FBI form, known as an FD-1023 form, last month.Asked by Fox News’s Sean Hannity if the allegations constitute a bribery scheme, McCarthy deflected.“The bribery statute, Mr. Speaker, does not demand that somebody benefit themselves financially. In this case, the vice president, as the 1023 form pointed out, took a specific action and his family, you know, was involved in personal enrichment. That being Hunter. Based on his actions, is that bribery to you?” Hannity asked.“Well Sean, everything that you just talked about, nobody in America knew until you had a change in Congress,” McCarthy responded, before running through various allegations Republicans have mounted.Pressed again by Hannity on whether the claims amount to a bribery scandal, McCarthy dodged.“Do you believe we are looking at a bribery scandal with Joe Biden, who’s now president, actions he took as vice president in exchange for family enrichment?” Hannity asked.McCarthy responded by running through other points Republicans have cited throughout their investigations, including testimony from Devon Archer, a former business associate of Hunter Biden who spoke to the House Oversight and Accountability Committee last week. Archer said he was “not aware” of any wrongdoing by then-Vice President Biden but did say Hunter Biden put his father on speakerphone during some meetings with associates.
White House: McCarthy ‘lying’ to cave to far-right in ‘impeachment stunt’ --The White House on Tuesday accused Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) of lying in order to cave to the far-right members of the House Republican Conference and their push for an impeachment inquiry into President Biden.Ian Sams, a spokesman for the White House Counsel’s Office, dug into McCarthy’s Fox News appearance Monday evening, saying he “continued lying about President Biden — making a series of plainly false, widely debunked attacks in order to promote the extreme far right’s baseless impeachment stunt that even some members of McCarthy’s own caucus are expressing concerns about pursuing.”McCarthy on Fox News compared the Biden administration to the Nixon administration, arguing that they both used the federal government to obstruct congressional investigations. Sams called that comparison “bizarre” and “demonstrably false,” highlighting that the Biden administration’s Treasury Department and the FBI provided the now GOP-led House Oversight Committee with records and access. McCarthy on Fox News echoed what House Republicans have characterized as bribes involving then-Vice President Biden and his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings.Sams referred to the testimony released last week of Hunter Biden’s old business associate Devon Archer. In the testimony, Archer couldn’t corroborate allegations that Burisma owner Mykola Zlochevsky made two $5 million payments to Hunter Biden and his father. Archer also said he would disagree with the conclusion that then-Vice President Biden was bribed by Zlochevsky. Last month, Republicans released an FBI form that contains an unverified tip that Biden was involved in such a scheme. The tip in the FBI form rests on a years-long allegation that Biden threatened to withhold $1 billion in funding to Ukraine unless then-Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin was ousted.
The Biden ‘crime family’ that isn’t - Members of Congress pay consultants a lot of money for expert advice. But today, as a former political consultant, I want to offer two bits of expert advice — for free — to House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) and House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). First words of advice: Before you release any document publicly, be sure to read it carefully. Otherwise, you may be mortifyingly embarrassed, as both Comer and Jordan were last week. For two years, Comer and Jordan promised to prove that Hunter Biden was engaged in criminal activity in his business relations with Ukraine and China. And not just Hunter, but also his father, then-vice president Joe Biden. Together, Comer called them the “Biden crime family.” Finally, last week, with grand fanfare, Comer scheduled their big show-and-tell — a congressional hearing featuring Devon Archer, Hunter’s former business partner, as star witness. And even though the hearing was held behind closed doors, Comer released the transcript of the hearing — which he and Jordan immediately claimed established the Bidens’ guilt once and for all.“Well, every day, this bribery scandal becomes more credible,” Comer told Fox News. Oops! There’s only one problem. Either Comer and Jordan weren’t listening to Archer’s testimony or they didn’t read the transcript before releasing it. Because the transcript shows that not only did Archer provide no evidence of illegal actions by Joe or Hunter, he directly contradicted five claims the two chairmen had been making against them.
- One. Joe Biden never discussed business matters on the phone with Hunter. Yes, Archer admitted, Hunter Biden did get his father on the phone “some 20 times” during meetings with officials of Burisma, the energy company on which both Hunter and Archer sat as board members. But there was no discussion of business.
- Two. Joe Biden never altered U.S. policy to help Hunter’s business deals. “I have no basis to know if he altered policy to benefit his son,” Archer testified. “I have no knowledge.”
- Three. Hunter Biden never expressly promised that his father could deliver anything. Yes, Archer testified, Hunter made sure everyone knew who his father was, he put him on phone calls, he sold the Biden family “brand,” but he never “overtly” told business associates he could or would use his father’s influence for any specific purpose.
- Four. Joe Biden never discussed business at two Washington dinners he attended with Hunter and business associates. “He came to dinner, and we ate and kind of talked about the world, I guess, and the weather, and then everybody —everybody left.”
- Five. Devon Archer dismissed allegations of bribery raised repeatedly by Comer and Jordan. Did Burisma pay Joe and Hunter $5 million each? So far as he knew, Archer said, it never happened.
In sum, instead of proving the House Republicans’ case against Joe and Hunter Biden, Devon Archer, under oath, destroyed it. It’s time for Comer and Jordan to fold their tent and move on.
US attorney general gives Hunter Biden prosecutor expanded powers by appointing him special counsel -- On Friday, US Attorney General Merrick Garland announced that he had appointed as special counsel the US attorney for Delaware, David Weiss, who has been investigating Hunter Biden for five years. The appointment, coming several weeks after the collapse of a plea deal worked out between Weiss and Hunter Biden’s lawyers, gives the US prosecutor expanded powers to potentially charge President Joe Biden’s son with corrupt business dealings with foreign firms, including in Ukraine and China, and bring him to trial in the midst of the 2024 presidential election campaign. At a press appearance, where he refused to respond to reporters’ questions, the attorney general said: “On Tuesday of this week, Mr. Weiss advised me that in his judgment his investigation had reached a stage at which he should continue his work as a special counsel, and he asked to be so appointed.” Garland continued: “Upon considering his request, as well as the extraordinary circumstances relating to this matter, I have concluded that it is in the public interest to appoint him as special counsel.” Also on Friday, Weiss filed a motion on behalf of the Justice Department saying that the parties were at an impasse on reworking the plea deal and a trial was in order. “Following additional negotiations after the hearing held on July 26, 2023,” the filing stated, “the parties are at an impasse and are not in agreement on either a plea agreement or a diversion agreement.” Garland’s move is clearly in response to efforts by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives to utilize Hunter Biden’s well-known lucrative and shady business dealings in Ukraine and China, in which the younger Biden traded on his father’s name and influence, to implicate the current president and leading 2024 Democratic presidential candidate in corrupt practices, including by means of an impeachment inquiry. These efforts are being spearheaded by the fascist wing of the GOP, which increasingly sets the political tone for the House Republicans and the Republican Party as a whole in supporting Donald Trump’s reelection bid and defending or downplaying the former president’s attempt to overthrow the 2020 election result and remain in power as a de facto dictator. Garland’s move at once underscores and intensifies the unprecedented crisis of the entire US political system. American capitalism is careening into a presidential election year under conditions where the leading Republican contender, Trump, is already facing three criminal indictments, including for seeking to overthrow the 2020 election and the US Constitution and is expected to be indicted again next week for seeking to overturn Biden’s 2020 election victory in Georgia.
Trump lawyers urge judge to narrow proposed rules on evidence sharing in election subversion case -Donald Trump’s legal team told a judge overseeing the election conspiracy case against him on Monday that prosecutors’ proposed protective order aimed at preventing the public disclosure of evidence is too broad and would restrict his First Amendment rights.Lawyers for the early 2024 Republican presidential primary front-runner said in court papers that the judge should impose a more limited order that would bar the public release only of materials deemed “sensitive” — such as grand jury documents — rather than all evidence handed over by the government in the case accusing Trump of conspiring to overturn his 2020 election loss.Prosecutors with special counsel Jack Smith’s team quickly countered with their own filing accusing Trump of objecting to their proposal because he wants to be able to use the government’s evidence to “try the case in the media rather than in the courtroom.”U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan said later Monday that she would hold a hearing on the dueling proposals, and that Trump would not have to attend.Prosecutors asked Friday for the protective order, which would impose rules on what Trump and his defense team can do with evidence shared by the government as they prepare for trial in the case unsealed last week.Smith’s prosecution team has said a protective order — not unusual in criminal cases — is particularly important in Trump’s case because of his penchant for using social media. They have expressed concern that Trump could improperly share sensitive case information online that could have a “harmful chilling effect on witnesses.” In their filing Friday seeking the order, prosecutors included a screenshot of a post from Trump’s Truth Social platform that same day in which he wrote, in all capital letters, “If you go after me, I’m coming after you!”
Trump valet pleads not guilty in classified documents case; property manager's arraignment postponed - — Donald Trump’s valet, Walt Nauta, appeared before a judge on Thursday and pleaded not guilty to conspiring with the former president to obstruct the investigation into his possession of classified documents at his Florida estate.But the property manager of Mar-a-Lago, Carlos De Oliveira, was again unable to enter a plea in the case because he still hasn’t secured a Florida-based attorney, which is required under local court rules.The magistrate judge also formally accepted the latest not guilty plea of Trump, who told the judge in court papers last week that he is not guilty and waived his right to appear at the hearing in person.De Oliveira and Nauta appeared in the federal court in Fort Pierce, Florida, on an updated indictment brought by special counsel Jack Smith alleging they schemed with the Republican former president to try to delete Mar-a-Lago surveillance video sought by investigators.Trump, Nauta and De Olivera face charges including conspiracy to obstruct justice in the case stemming from secret government documents found at Trump’s Palm Beach club after he left the White House in 2021.Nauta and Trump were charged in June and previously pleaded not guilty, but a new indictment handed down late last month added more charges and De Oliveira to the case.De Oliveira made an initial appearance in court in July but didn’t enter a plea because he hadn’t retained local counsel. The judge on Thursday set a new arraignment date for Aug. 15.Trump was already charged with dozens of felony counts, and the indictment added new counts of obstruction and willful retention of national defense information.It’s one of three different criminal cases Trump is facing this year as he tries to reclaim the White House in 2024. He’s also gearing up for a possible fourth indictment, in a case out of Fulton County, Georgia, over alleged efforts by him and his Republican allies to illegally meddle in the 2020 election in that state. The county district attorney, Fani Willis, a Democrat, has signaled that any indictments in the case would likely come this month.
Judge tosses Trump's defamation suit against writer who won sexual abuse lawsuit against him (AP) — A federal judge tossed out former President Donald Trump’s countersuit against the writer who won a sex abuse lawsuit against him, ruling Monday that Trump can’t claim she defamed him by continuing to say she was not only sexually abused but raped.The ruling shuts down, at least for now, Trump’s effort to turn the legal tables on E. Jean Carroll, who won a $5 million judgment against him in May and is pursuing her own defamation suit against him. Trump attorney Alina Habba said his lawyers would appeal “the flawed decision” to dismiss his counterclaim.Carroll’s lawyer, Robbie Kaplan, said she was pleased with the ruling and looking ahead to a trial scheduled in January in her defamation suit, which concerns a series of remarks that Trump has made in denying her sexual assault allegation. “E. Jean Carroll looks forward to obtaining additional compensatory and punitive damages” in that trial, Kaplan said.Carroll accused Trump of trapping her in a luxury department store dressing room in 1996, forcibly kissing her, yanking down her tights and raping her as she tried to fight him off.He denies any of it happened, even that they ran into each other at the store. He has called her, among other things, a “nut job” who invented “a fraudulent and false story” to sell a memoir.In this spring’s trial, a civil court jury concluded that Trump sexually abused Carroll but rejected her claim that he raped her. Legally, the difference depended on specifics of how, in the jury’s view, he penetrated her against her will.
Two CIA Democrats, Abigail Spanberger and Elissa Slotkin, are seeking higher offices -Abigail Spanberger, a three-time House Democratic Representative from Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, has let it be known that she plans to run for governor in 2025, and will likely give up her seat in the House of Representatives next year as a result, according to the online publication Politico. A former CIA agent, Spanberger would join Elissa Slotkin, another former CIA agent, who is seeking a vacant seat in the US Senate next year and will also give up her seat in the House of Representatives. Spanberger and Slotkin are among more than a dozen members of the House of Representatives who have entered Congress since 2018 from active service in the CIA, military or State Department, whom the World Socialist Web Site has labeled the CIA Democrats. This group has been deliberately promoted by the Democratic Party leadership and given prominent roles in the caucus leadership. Six of the CIA Democrats signed an op-ed advocating the 2019 impeachment of Trump over his disruption of US military aid to Ukraine. One of the six, Jason Crow, a former Army paratrooper in Afghanistan, was a House impeachment manager. Spanberger herself was promoted this year to a leadership position as head of a newly formed House Democratic caucus aimed at winning tightly contested elections in so-called “battleground” states. In addition, she sits on the high-powered House Intelligence Committee, overseeing the same agency in which she worked for 12 years, mainly in Europe. Spanberger was first elected in 2018 in a district stretching north from the suburbs of Richmond to the fringes of Northern Virginia, defeating incumbent Republican ultra-rightist David Brat, benefitting from the wave of popular revulsion over the first two years of the Trump administration. While she has not officially declared her intent to run for governor, she has dropped more than hints, generating a string of media reports last week based on comments by “top political aides” and “four Democrats” in Virginia and two members of Congress, all obviously intended to build up support for her eventual run. Politico commented that Spanberger, “a powerhouse fundraiser who recently earned a spot at House Democrats’ leadership table, has been laying the groundwork for a statewide run for months—even years.” She would seek to take over the governorship from Republican Glenn Youngkin, who is limited to a single term by state law.
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. v. Google Alleges First Amendment Violations via YouTube Censorship as a State Actor – by Yves Smith - This has been such a depressing election season that the blockbuster lawsuit filed by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. on Friday night is a welcome surprise. It also means that RFK, Jr. will be discomfiting the Biden Administration and the censorship apparatus long after his quixotic bid to win the Democratic party nomination will have gone down to its likely defeats (not only are superdelegates a big obstacle, but so to is Biden’s refusal to debate, and the considerable advantages of incumbency.) RFK, Jr.’s suit challenges the way Google’s YouTube subsidiary has been removing videos with content that contradicts official narratives, specifically videos made of RFK, Jr.’s campaign events and interview where he says politically incorrect things about the Covid vaccine or vaccines generally and the entire video is removed. The filing explains cogently why this is activity is state directed. Views that contradict the official views of bodies like WHO and the CDC and of course the Biden Administration generally are expunged. And YouTube has made the role of the Federal government explicit by invoking Section 230, The filing does a good job of setting forth, at a high level, how the opinion control apparatus is a pernicious public-private partnership. I hope as this suit goes on that the plaintiff’s team or sympathetic analysts will look into the Congressional debates about CISA. I doubt that censoring candidates’ videos or even what in saner days would have been waved off as crank views on public health matters would have been seen as legitimate uses. This filing targets only YouTube via its Google parent but the filing repeatedly depicts the Federal government and YouTube/Google engaged in a joint enterprise of censorship. This means that RFK, Jr. is pursuing Federal government too. If this suit survives a motion to dismiss and gets to discovery (which seems extremely likely), discovery is likely to expose all sorts of Biden Administration meddling. It is not hard to see RFK, Jr. filing a second suit directly against the US government if his discovery unearths Twitter-Files-level or worse muscling.1Moreover, there is every reason to think YouTube/Google was far more cooperative that Twitter was (the Twitter Files showed staff regularly debating and even turning down quite a few official intervention “requests”). Twitter has a history of fighting subpoenas for information about its account-holders when its competitors roll over far more frequently. On top of that, Google is widely seen as a close ally and even arm of the US surveillance state abroad and presumably here (although one assumes Google is a tad more careful in the US).As is implied above, this case has the potential to do considerable damage to the Biden campaign once the plaintiffs start discovery. That means that YouTube/Google may be even more motivated than usual to use various procedural moves to delay it, ideally past the point when any juicy findings could be waved as a bloody shirt by Team R (assuming again that Biden or Harris or an anointed Dem like Gavin Newsom becomes the Democrat nominee).Given that RFK, Jr. argues that the campaign against him intensified once he threw his hat into the ring, one wonders if he could fund his litigation in part out of campaign funds. Even if that would be arguably permissible, a less risky move would be dedicated fundraising for it. Regardless, the filing will make it harder for the media to downplay his campaign. One can imagine the right wing will take it up and thus the MSM will at least have to deign to take notice.This filing should also have a dampening effect on YouTube/Google and potentially other officially-instigated censorship. At a minimum, all of these anti-free-speech platforms will feel the need to be more coded and careful in how they communicate internally and externally about these schemes. That alone will inhibit their operation.And if RFK, Jr. prevails, and the odds of that seem not bad, it’s not hard to imagine a raft of follow-on suits using his as a precedent, including class action suits on behalf of smaller victims.
Jamie Dimon Faces an Uphill Battle Convincing a Jury He Didn’t Know that Child Sex-Trafficker, Jeffrey Epstein, Was Financing His Operation Out of JPMorgan - By Pam and Russ Martens: August 9, 2023 ~ Jamie Dimon is between a rock and a hard place. He is either going to have to convince a jury come October that he was left in the dark by the bank’s general counsel, his compliance and money laundering executives, and the heads of his investment bank and asset and wealth division about the fact that notorious child molester Jeffrey Epstein was a client at the bank for more than a decade – which would make Dimon sound so isolated as to be unfit to be running the bank – or Dimon is going to have to admit that he lied under oath in his federal court deposition. Neither is a comfortable proposition to be facing for a jury trial currently scheduled for October 23. JPMorgan Chase is currently facing off against three federal lawsuits before Judge Jed Rakoff in the Southern District of New York that charge the bank with facilitating Epstein’s sex trafficking operation, which included dozens of underage school girls. One lawsuit was brought by Epstein’s victims; another by the Attorney General of the U.S. Virgin Islands where Epstein owned an island compound; and a third by shareholders of the bank, which name the bank, Dimon, another bank executive and specific Board Members as defendants.It is the lawsuit brought by the Attorney General of the U.S. Virgin Islands that is currently scheduled for trial on October 23 that poses a significant amount of legal peril for Dimon. That lawsuit alleges that JPMorgan Chase not only “facilitated” Epstein’s crimes against women and girls but “actively participated in Epstein’s sex trafficking venture.” According to the transcript of Dimon’s deposition conducted on May 26, his position is this:“I don’t recall knowing anything about Jeffrey Epstein until the stories broke sometime in 2019. And I was surprised that I didn’t even — had never even heard of the guy, pretty much, and how involved he was with so many people.”Dimon’s reference to stories breaking in 2019 is because the U.S. Department of Justice, which had cut Epstein a notorious sweetheart deal in 2007 that provided him a non prosecution agreement and allowed him to plead to two counts of procuring prostitution (instead of multiple counts of rape and sexual assaults of underage schoolgirls) finally got around to bringing federal sex trafficking charges against Epstein in 2019 – after Epstein and his wealthy pals had raped and sexually assaulted hundreds of other girls.The details of that 2007-2008 sweetheart deal had been making headlines for years – headlines that Dimon somehow missed, despite testifying in his deposition that he read multiple newspapers daily. In addition to newspaper headlines, bestselling author, James Patterson’s book, “Filthy Rich,” covering Epstein’s sexual assaults of young girls had been released in 2016 and Julie Brown’s blockbuster series on Epstein’s crimes in the Miami Herald in 2018 had caused a viral media storm. But Dimon somehow missed it all.Dimon’s general counsel from 2007 to 2015 was Stephen Cutler, the former Director of the Division of Enforcement at the Securities and Exchange Commission. Cutler stepped down as General Counsel in 2015 to become Vice Chairman at JPMorgan Chase and a senior advisor to Dimon and the bank’s Board of Directors. He served in that position until 2018 when he left the bank to join the law firm Simpson Thacher & Bartlett. It is almost inconceivable that in all those years Cutler would not have brought the reputational risk that Epstein posed to the bank to the attention of Dimon or the Board. According to emails obtained by the U.S. Virgin Islands in discovery, Cutler was aware of Epstein’s history and the existence of his accounts at the bank from at least 2011. Cutler reported directly to Dimon and his office was located next door to Dimon’s office. The emails show that Cutler was against keeping Epstein as a client. It is only common sense that someone higher up than Cutler would have had to overrule him. That suggests some interference by Dimon or the Board of Directors to keep Epstein and his accounts at the bank.In addition, dozens of internal emails show that a multitude of the bank’s compliance personnel and anti-money laundering staff were holding “Rapid Response” team meetings as each scandalous newspaper article about Epstein appeared. The U.S. Virgin Islands has produced extensive evidence that the motive for keeping Epstein as a client at JPMorgan Chase, despite his ongoing sex trafficking, was the revenues his accounts were generating for the bank and the ultra wealthy clients he was referring to the bank.
No Crypto Plans For X: Elon Musk Debunks Scam Token Claims --Elon Musk addressed the issue of scam tokens falsely claiming connections to the social media platform... Elon Musk has stated that his social media platform X (formerly Twitter) has no plans to launch crypto tokens in response to a post regarding questionable X and Twitter-based digital currencies on Saturday, Aug. 5.In response to a post by DogeDesigner, Musk addressed the issue of scam tokens like X (X) and TwitterDAO (TWITTER) falsely claiming connections to the social media platform.DogeDesigner had cautioned the crypto community about being cautious with articles related to scam tokens and clarified that neither Musk nor X had ever launched a crypto token. In his reply, Musk asserted, “And we never will.“Previously, Musk had dropped hints about integrating cryptocurrency as a payment option on X. Traders were left wondering whether he would introduce a particular crypto token or stick with his favorite - Dogecoin.However, with the appointment of Linda Yaccarino as the new CEO, some doubts arose regarding the likelihood of a DOGE integration. Still, recent comments from Musk have revived optimistic sentiments among Dogecoin investors.Musk recently announced his ambitious vision of transforming Twitter into an all-encompassing platform known as X, the so-called “everything app,“ officially rebranding Twitter to X in July.
FTX Co-Founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s Bail to Be Revoked by US Judge - FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried is in custody after a federal judge said that the embattled crypto mogul likely tried to tamper with two witnesses while on bail. US District Judge Lewis A. Kaplan revoked the 31-year-old's bail following a hearing in Manhattan on Friday. Bankman-Fried took off his jacket, tie and shoelaces, and was immediately placed in handcuffs as marshals escorted him out of the courtroom. His mother cried in the public gallery and was comforted by Bankman-Fried’s father. Kaplan said Bankman-Fried had likely intended to influence two witnesses — former Alameda Research Chief Executive Officer Caroline Ellison and ...
Sam Bankman-Fried Sent to Jail After Judge Revokes Bail - Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange FTX, was sent to jail on Friday after a federal judge in New York revoked his bail, accusing him of trying to influence witnesses who are poised to testify against him at a widely anticipated trial in less than two months. Mr. Bankman-Fried, 31, had been under house arrest at his parents’ home in Palo Alto, Calif., since he was arrested in December on fraud charges stemming from FTX’s implosion. But at a hearing on Friday, Judge Lewis A. Kaplan of Federal District Court in Manhattan said that arrangement would have to end, after prosecutors argued that Mr. Bankman-Fried had twice tried to interfere with witnesses in the case, including by giving documents to reporters. “He has gone up to the line over and over again, and I am going to revoke bail,” Judge Kaplan said from the bench. After the order was read aloud, two U.S. marshals had Mr. Bankman-Fried remove his tie and navy suit jacket as they prepared to handcuff him. His mother, Barbara Fried, in attendance with his father, tried to approach him, but a court officer cautioned her to stand back. He was taken to the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn. One of Mr. Bankman-Fried’s lawyers, Mark Cohen, said in court that he intended to appeal. Judge Kaplan said he wouldn’t wait for the outcome of that effort before sending Mr. Bankman-Fried to jail. The courtroom scene was the latest humiliating blow to Mr. Bankman-Fried since his cryptocurrency company fell apart in one of the most stunning corporate crashes in recent history. FTX rode the highs of the virtual currency market to become one of the industry’s leading companies before filing for bankruptcy after a run on deposits last fall. Over a few weeks, Mr. Bankman-Fried went from being an industry titan courted by politicians and celebrities to a criminal defendant facing decades in prison. Now he will have to prepare for his trial, scheduled to begin Oct. 2, from a jail cell. The court dispute over his bail focused on a New York Times article, published last month, that described private writings by Caroline Ellison, an executive in Mr. Bankman-Fried’s business empire who had also dated him. Ms. Ellison has pleaded guilty to fraud charges and agreed to cooperate with the prosecutors investigating Mr. Bankman-Fried. In court filings, prosecutors said Mr. Bankman-Fried had given the documents to The Times to intimidate Ms. Ellison by casting her in a negative light before his trial. They also noted Mr. Bankman-Fried’s numerous conversations with others in the media, including the author Michael Lewis, who is writing a book about FTX that is set for publication the week the trial begins. As the bail issue was debated in court filings over recent weeks, Judge Kaplan imposed a temporary gag order preventing the FTX founder and his representatives from speaking to the media. Lawyers for Mr. Bankman-Fried said that by giving the documents to The Times, he had been exercising his right to answer “an inquiry from the media” and had not breached the terms of his bail agreement. The Times, the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press and a documentarian making a film about Mr. Bankman-Fried each submitted a court filing raising First Amendment concerns about the gag order. The status of the order was not immediately clear after Mr. Bankman-Fried was sent to jail on Friday. But in court, Judge Kaplan said that “defendant speech is not protected if it is to bring about a crime.” He said he had concluded that Mr. Bankman-Fried’s communication with the media and a separate attempt to contact a former FTX employee were intended to “intimidate or also to influence” witnesses in the case. A spokesman for Mr. Bankman-Fried declined to comment. A spokesman for the U.S. attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York, which is prosecuting Mr. Bankman-Fried, did not respond to a request for comment. Mr. Bankman-Fried was arrested in the Bahamas, where FTX was based, after the company collapsed during a turbulent week in November. He was charged with using customers’ deposits to finance lavish real estate purchases, political donations and charitable initiatives. After a few days in jail in the Bahamas, he was extradited to the United States and released on highly restrictive bail conditions that required him to wear an ankle monitor and confined him to his parents’ house. He has pleaded not guilty.
Sam Bankman-Fried tossed in jail over ex-girlfriend's leaked love letters -- Indicted FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was hauled off to jail Friday after a federal judge revoked the fallen crypto king’s bail for allegedly leaking his ex-girlfriend’s love letters.US District Judge Lewis Kaplan sided with federal prosecutors who argued that Bankman-Fried had jeopardized his upcoming trial by leaking the personal writings of his former lover and business associate Caroline Ellison to a New York Times reporter.Kaplan determined there was probable cause to believe Bankman-Fried had tried to “tamper with witnesses at least twice” since his December arrest for fraud. Bankman-Fried’s defense attorney Mark Cohen said his team would appeal the incarceration order. Kaplan rejected the defense’s request for an immediate stay pending the outcome of the appeal.The defense team accused prosecutors of pushing for Bankman-Fried’s jailing based on “innuendo, speculation, and scant facts.”Bankman-Fried, 31, had been held under house arrest at his parents’ mansion in Palo Alto, Calif. on $250 million bond.He was shipped off to the Manhattan Detention Complex in Lower Manhattan, where the former billionaire will be locked up until the start of the trial on Oct. 2.He has pleaded not guilty of having allegedly misused billions in FTX customer funds to fund a lavish lifestyle and prop up risky bets at Alameda before his cryptocurrency empire collapsed last year.The feds previously stated that the disgraced wonderboy had “crossed a line” and harassed Ellison, the former CEO of Bankman-Fried’s doomed cryptocurrency hedge fund Alameda Research. Ellison has already pleaded guilty to fraud and is expected to be a key witness as Bankman-Fried faces trial for allegedly FTX bilking customers out of billions.
CFTC charges residents of Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas for crypto fraud -- Legal proceedings have been initiated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) against individuals and their organization, Fundsz, citing their involvement in a deceptive scheme concerning cryptocurrencies and precious metals trading.Rene Larralde from Melbourne, Florida, Juan Pablo Valcarce from West Melbourne, Florida, Brian Early from New Orleans, Louisiana and Alisha Ann Kingrey from Franklin, Arkansas, along with their unincorporated entity Fundsz, face allegations of misleading investment solicitations. They allegedly enticed investors with implausible returns based on a purported "proprietary algorithm."The CFTC lodged a complaint in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida, alleging that the defendants attracted customers by promising steady 3% weekly profits through cryptocurrency and precious metal trading.They inaccurately portrayed Fundsz as a profitable venture, asserting that a $2,500 investment could burgeon into $1 million in just 48 months. Additionally, the accused falsely linked Fundsz to charitable initiatives, capitalizing on the allure of contributing to worthy causes.The regulatory body also asserts that the defendants managed to entice over 14,000 individuals by creating false weekly returns. Nonetheless, as per the CFTC, the reality is that Fundsz did not actually trade customer funds. The entire venture seems to have been established upon fabricated profits and deceptive assertions.Judge Wendy Berger of the U.S. District Court issued a unilateral statutory restraining order, effectively freezing the defendants' assets and designating a temporary receiver. A preliminary injunction hearing is set for August 23. The CFTC seeks to ensure fairness by pursuing restitution for deceived investors, reclaiming ill-gotten gains, imposing financial penalties, enacting bans on trading and registration and securing a lasting injunction against future infractions.Previously, the CFTC revealed that a default judgment had been issued by Judge Naomi Reice Buchwald of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. This judgment established a lasting injunction against Michael Ackerman, an Alliance, Ohio resident.
SEC Challenges Securities Ruling On Ripple's XRP - The SEC has asked to appeal a recent court ruling that determined Ripple’s XRP token does not violate securities laws when sold on public exchanges. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has asked for a review of the recent ruling that Ripple Lab’s XRP token complies with federal securities laws when sold on public exchanges. In its letter to the judge who made that ruling, the commission wrote that there is “substantial ground for differences of opinion.” The July 13 ruling on XRP was seen as a major victory for they cryptocurrency market at large as it set a precedent that retail sales would not require securities registrations with the SEC, which can be a lengthy and onerous process. A successful appeal by the SEC would deflate that enthusiasm, while an unsuccessful one would solidify it.: The July decision from U.S. District Judge Analisa Torresalso clarified that XRP sales to institutional buyers like hedge funds would qualify as unregistered sales of securities, giving a partial victory to the SEC.Ripple Labs sold some $728 million in XRP to “sophisticated buyers,”violating securities laws per Torres’ ruling “The court said that XRP the cryptocurrency, the asset, is a security if Ripple is selling to institutional players,” explained Austin Arnold in the video above. The original ruling was a major victory for Ripple Labs, andsaw influential cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase and Kraken relist XRP in the immediate aftermath.As SEC scrutiny forces the cryptocurrency industry to consider moving operations overseas, avoiding securities violations is critical for the success of digital assets. “The judge even said that XRP the asset by itself (is) not a security,” Aaron Arnold added in the video above. “The actual asset itself, not a security, which was a huge win for the cryptocurrency space, make no mistake about it.”
‘XRP is not a security. Period’ — Crypto lawyers on Ripple’s case amid SEC appeal -As the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) seeks an interlocutory appeal in its case against Ripple Labs, lawyers working in the crypto space expressed confidence in Ripple’s case, with some underscoring that the XRP (XRP) token is not a security. On Aug. 9, the SEC sent a letter to Judge Analisa Torres stating that it was moving to appeal the court decision, which it says warrants a fresh look by an appellate court. The SEC asked the judge to put the case on hold while the appeal is in progress.The SEC’s move to appeal sparked questions among community members, with some thinking that the SEC’s move to appeal is a move to challenge the “non-security” status of XRP. However, crypto lawyers assured the community that this is not the case.According to crypto lawyer Jeremy Hogan, the two issues are separate. Hogan explained that if the SEC wins the appeal on the sales, Ripple would not be able to facilitate sales using exchanges. Despite this, the lawyer believes that exchanges could keep XRP listed as long as the sales are not made by Ripple. Cointelegraph reached out to crypto lawyer Oscar Franklin Tan, chief legal officer of the nonfungible token (NFT) platform Enjin, to break down some of the intricacies surrounding the SEC’s move. According to Tan, appeals usually take place once the case is finished. However, the SEC’s appeal is interlocutory, meaning it wants to appeal even though the case is unfinished.When asked how this appeal could potentially influence the course of the case, Tan told Cointelegraph that it’s all about the momentum. He explained:“The SEC is asking to pause the XRP case while the interlocutory appeal goes on. If the appeal is allowed, whoever wins the appeal builds momentum in the main case.”While Hogan believes that the appeal will not affect XRP’s security status, Tan believes that this is still what the SEC is after. He thinks the SEC is still looking to overturn the July decision by Torres that XRP is not a security in certain instances.
U.S. Senator Lummis, Crypto Lobbyists Urge Court to Dismiss SEC's Coinbase Lawsuit --U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wy.), a number of crypto lobbying organizations and a group of professors called on a federal court to dismiss a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit against crypto exchange Coinbase Friday.Filing amicus – or friend of the court – briefs, the organizations and lawmaker alleged the SEC was trying to exceed its authority in bringing a lawsuit alleging crypto trading platforms like Coinbase are simultaneously unregistered securities exchanges, brokers and clearinghouses trading similarly unregistered securities in the form of crypto assets. The SEC brought lawsuits against Coinbase and fellow exchange Binance (and the latter's U.S. arm, Binance.US) in June this year.The amicus briefs, addressed to Judge Katherine Polk Failla, of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, echo Coinbase’s own arguments in its motion for judgment dismissing the case. In total, lobby organizations including the Blockchain Association,Crypto Council for Innovation, Chamber of Digital Commerce,DeFi Education Fund, Chamber of Progress, Consumer Technology Association, venture firms like Andreessen Horowitz and Paradigm and half a dozen academics filed a total of six briefs, not including the Senator’s.Earlier this month, Coinbase argued in its motion for judgment that the transactions the SEC pointed to didn’t meet the definition of an investment contract and therefore weren’t a violation of securities law.The amicus briefs come a day after the SEC settled similar charges with Bittrex, another global exchange with a U.S. arm. The U.S. arm is in bankruptcy proceedings.“This is no run-of-the-mill enforcement case. Through this case the SEC seeks primary influence over economic, political, and legal questions under active consideration by Congress and multiple agencies,” the brief filed on behalf of Lummis said. “Amicus submits this brief to highlight: (i) the important questions implicated here, which are properly before Congress right now; and (ii) the fundamental separation-of-powers principles that weigh strongly in favor of deferring to Congress rather than adopting the SEC’s novel and expansive view of its own authority.”
PayPal's stablecoin launch has Washington's attention — Digital tokens are once again in the policy spotlight after PayPal became the first payments company of its caliber to issue a dollar-backed stablecoin. The launch of PayPal's stablecoin, PYUSD, could reignite discussions about the future of stablecoin regulation, according to industry experts, who also argued that the project poses a competitive threat to traditional banks. PayPal is already a prominent payments provider, unlike tech companies like Meta, which was known as Facebook when it announced its ill-fated stablecoin initiative in 2019. The latest stablecoin rollout could capture lawmakers' attention and prompt discussions about the appropriate regulatory framework for stablecoin issuance, said Ian Katz, managing director at Capital Alpha Partners. "PayPal isn't quite as polarizing as Facebook, but it's a high-profile name that will surely get attention on Capitol Hill," as well as from the Federal Reserve and the Securities and Exchange Commission, Katz wrote in an email. "Democrats generally have been concerned that the Republicans are giving the states too much authority." He added that Democrats want the Fed to play a bigger role in oversight of stablecoins. Jaret Seiberg, a policy analyst at TD Cowen, said the divide between Democrats and Republicans is not unbridgeable, since both parties appear to agree on the bulk of the regulatory regime. The question of whether to regulate stablecoins at the state or federal level, he said, is the major unresolved disagreement between the Biden administration and congressional Republicans, whose efforts have been led by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry, R-N.C. "The sticking point centers on how much federal oversight there will be of state-regulated stablecoin issuers," Seiberg wrote in an email. "Team Biden wants to copy the banking regime, which effectively would make the federal authority the primary regulator. It is hard for us to see McHenry accepting that condition, [so] we are skeptical stable coin legislation will become law in this Congress."
Judge narrows scope of discovery in Custodia lawsuit against Fed -The federal judge overseeing Custodia Bank's lawsuit against the Federal Reserve narrowed the scope of discovery in the case this week.Judge Kelly Rankin, a magistrate in the U.S. District Court in Wyoming, denied the digital asset bank's request for information about applications other banks submitted to the central bank, according to a court order released on Monday.Custodia filed suit against the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City last summer over its application for a so-called master account. The request, which languished for months at the reserve bank, was denied earlier this year. The Cheyenne, Wyoming-based bank argues that it meets the legal criteria for such an account — which imbues access to the Fed's payments system — and therefore its denial was unlawful.The scope of discovery, the process through which parties must disclose key information related to a legal proceeding, has been a critical issue in the case, with Custodia originally pushing for a broad array of information and the Fed arguing that such lengthy disclosures could have "potential ramifications for the careful balance Congress has created with the Federal Reserve System — including potential consequences far beyond this case."Ultimately, the court sided with the Fed and ruled it would only have to provide an administrative record summarizing the actions it took to reach its conclusion about Custodia's application. The judge overseeing the matter called Custodia's requests "borderline nonsensical."Despite that ruling, issued last December, Custodia had continued to seek "various documents" from the Fed and third-party groups "regarding other bank's master account applications," according to a brief summary of Rankin's ruling, which was released Monday. It is unclear what precise information the bank was seeking. The subject was discussed in a private telephone conference between the two parties and Rankin, a court official said Thursday.
Fed tells banks to get permission before offering stablecoin services — The Federal Reserve sent a supervisory letter Tuesday to banks it oversees that outlines the process they must follow before issuing or redeeming stablecoins or holding them in custody.According to the letter, Fed-supervised banks eyeing stablecoin activities must demonstrate they can safely and soundly engage in such novel activities."A state member bank seeking to engage in [stablecoin activities] is required to demonstrate, to the satisfaction of Federal Reserve supervisors, that the bank has controls in place to conduct the activity in a safe and sound manner," the letter said. "A state member bank should receive a written notification of supervisory non-objection from the Federal Reserve before engaging in the proposed activities."The agency said banks must demonstrate they understand the various legal and reputational risks, possess adequate capital and liquidity buffers, as well as have in place strong risk management practices, compliance controls and contingency plans before they may be given the green light.In addition to establishing the new non-objection process for state member banks, the Fed created a program to supervise novel activities like stablecoins at the banks it oversees."The program will help ensure that regulation and supervision allow for innovations that improve access to and the delivery of financial services, while also safeguarding bank customers, banking organizations and financial stability," the Fed wrote in a news release. "The program will also operate in keeping with the principle that banking organizations are neither prohibited nor discouraged from providing banking services to customers of any specific class or type, as permitted by law or regulation." The Fed said rather than moving banks with novel activities into a separate portfolio, the program will be integrated into the central bank's existing supervisory processes and that it will assign program experts to work with supervisory teams.
Experts hear familiar warnings in Fed's latest novel activity guidance In fresh guidance issued this week, the Federal Reserve said banks can engage in various crypto-based activities including custody, collateralized lending and trading — but only if they clear a high bar to prove they can do so safelyThe Fed issued two policy statements Tuesday, one establishing a program for overseeing so-called novel risks and another outlining the process for certain state-chartered banks to engage in stablecoin activity. While the agency asserted that such activities are legal, the documents also make clear that engaging with them will draw enhanced supervisory scrutiny."I interpret the Fed's new supervisory letters — SR 23-7 and SR 23-8 — as expressing the Fed's heightened concerns about the involvement of banking organizations in crypto-related activities," Georgetown University law professor Arthur Wilmarth said. "The Fed has given clear notice that it will apply more stringent supervisory scrutiny to Fed-supervised banking organizations that engage in those activities and especially those that have large concentrations in such activities." Legal and policy analysts say the contents of this week's letters are thematically similar to previous guidance issued during the past several months. Like prior policy statements, they also set no hard perimeters around new activities, but emphasize their risks.
Directors of failed Chicago bank plead guilty to defrauding the OCC - Three former board members of Chicago's failed Washington Bank for Savings have pleaded guilty to trying to deceive the bank's regulator to conceal rampant embezzlement. William Mahon, George Kozdemba and Janice Weston conspired to falsify bank records shared with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, according to the pleas lodged in federal court for the Northern District of Illinois this month. The pleas are the latest legal moves in a yearslong case that stems from Washington Federal's failure in December 2017, shortly after regulators learned the bank was insolvent and carrying at least $66 million in nonperforming loans. Since then, federal authorities have charged 16 high-ranking former employees of the bank with crimes ranging from fraud to conspiring to embezzle $31 million in bank money. After the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency began to evaluate the bank's loan portfolio before its failure, Mahon, Kozdemba and Weston made false entries in bank records in an attempt to obstruct the agency's examination, according to a statement from the United States Attorney's Office for the Northern District of Illinois issued after the pleas were entered. "They also falsified records to make it appear Washington Federal was operating in compliance with banking rules and internal policies and controls," the U.S. attorney's office said in the statement.
Wells Fargo, BNP to pay millions in U.S. fines in WhatsApp probes --Wells Fargo and BNP Paribas will pay millions of dollars in penalties for employees using unofficial communications like WhatsApp to conduct business as the Securities and Exchange Commission deepens its crackdown on how Wall Street keeps records. Wells Fargo units agreed to pay $125 million to settle the cases and BNP will pay $35 million, the SEC said on Tuesday. In all 11 firms agreed to pay penalties, including a Bank of Montreal unit and a Mizuho Financial Group securities arm, to Wall Street's main regulator. In a separate actions, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced settlements in similar cases with units of four lenders including Wells Fargo and Bank of Montreal worth an additional $260 million. Over the past several years the SEC and CFTC have been cracking down on firms skirting regulatory scrutiny by using services such as WhatsApp or personal email addresses for work-related communication, regulators said at the time. Last September, the SEC announced $1.1 billion in fines against firms including Bank of America, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs Group.
BofA sued by pension fund for fraud in unemployment benefits program -- A pension fund has sued Bank of America's CEO Brian Moynihan, the bank's board and senior managers for breaching their fiduciary duties when the bank froze unemployment benefits on prepaid cards for tens of thousands of people at the height of the pandemic. The Seafarers International Union of North America filed a lawsuit Monday alleging BofA's management and board were focused "on profits over actual remediation and legal compliance." The 190-page lawsuit claims the $3.1 trillion-asset bank in Charlotte, N.C., did not have adequate systems to combat fraud and illegally used a fraud filter that blocked customers from accessing their money. The pension fund also faulted BofA for using cheaper, less secure magnetic stripes that were prone to fraud, an allegation made in other plaintiffs' lawsuits against the bank. In July, BofA was fined $225 million by federal regulators for botching the disbursement of state unemployment benefits and unlawfully freezing consumer accounts, particularly in California. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found that BofA had not implemented any system of oversight to monitor compliance with applicable laws and regulations. BofA declined to comment. "Despite the need for improvement, BOA's only concerns were preventing fraud losses and exiting the Prepaid Card business," the lawsuit states. "As a result of this surge in fraud and the reported costs to BOA resulting therefrom, the Individual Defendants instituted, maintained, and continually focused on enhancing anti-fraud measures that they knew caused the denial or delay of unemployment benefits to hundreds of thousands of legitimate recipients in violation of the law."
Republicans ask FDIC to consider uninsured deposits post-failures — A group of Republican lawmakers called for tweaks to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s special assessment rulemaking, done to replenish the agency's fund to resolve failed banks in the wake of the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank. Those changes would benefit regional banks and put a larger burden on larger banks, according to the letter sent by a group of Republicans led by Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., chairman of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy. As the special assessment proposal currently stands, regional and community banks — which the lawmakers said did not benefit as significantly from the systemic risk exception declared by federal regulators to stem the outflow of deposits from those institutions to the largest banks after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic — would be negatively impacted. The FDIC's proposed way of calculating the special assessment, which is required after federal regulators made the systemic risk exception, would base the amount that firms pay on the amount of uninsured deposits that all but the smallest banks held as of the end of 2022. The lawmakers argue that should be pushed back to before March 31, 2023, which they said would capture uninsured deposit flight to the largest banks. "The proposed date fails to account for movement of deposits from regional banks to other institutions in the days and weeks following the failures and invocation of the systemic risk determination," the lawmakers said in the letter. "Therefore, for the proposed rule to apply to those banks that benefited the most from the assistance provided under the system risk determination, a date closer to the systemic risk determination date should be applied to better account for the movement of deposits to larger institutions that occurred contemporaneous to and in the aftermath of the determination."
Warren presses Goldman Sachs on Silicon Valley Bank dual role -- Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., criticized what she called Goldman Sachs' dual role in the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in a new letter to the firm. Warren asked Goldman in a letter dated Aug. 7 to name employees involved in the banks' dealings with Silicon Valley Bank before it failed in March, and whether those employees had communicated with each other. The request ratchets up federal scrutiny of the role that Goldman played as Silicon Valley Bank approached failure, as Goldman's investment bankers advised Silicon Valley Bank on raising capital, while its trading division purchased a $21 billion loan portfolio from the bank at a discount. Initially, Warren asked Goldman in June about its dealings with Silicon Valley Bank in a letter last month. In response to that query, Goldman said it expects to realize a gain of about $60 million from the purchase and sale of the portfolio, although that number "has fluctuated over time as market conditions have changed." Goldman said it is "cooperating with and providing information to various governmental bodies in connection with their investigations and inquiries into SVB, including the firm's business with SVB in or around March 2023."
Moody's cuts U.S. banks on mounting funding costs, office risk -- Moody's Investors Service lowered credit ratings for 10 small and midsize U.S. banks and said it may downgrade major lenders including U.S. Bancorp, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street and Truist Financial as part of a sweeping look at mounting pressures on the industry. Higher funding costs, potential regulatory capital weaknesses and rising risks tied to commercial real estate loans amid weakening demand for office space are among strains prompting the review, Moody's said in a spree of notes late Monday."Collectively, these three developments have lowered the credit profile of a number of U.S. banks, though not all banks equally," it wrote in some of the assessments.Firms that had ratings cut included M&T Bank, Webster Financial, BOK Financial, Old National Bancorp, Pinnacle Financial Partners, and Fulton Financial. Northern Trust and Cullen/Frost Bankers are also under review for downgrades.Moody's also adopted a "negative" outlook for 11 lenders, including PNC Financial Services Group, Capital One Financial, Citizens Financial Group, Fifth Third Bancorp, Regions Financial, Ally Financial, Bank OZK and Huntington Bancshares.Shares of several affected companies dropped in early New York trading. U.S. Bancorp and Bank of New York Mellon both slid 2.3%, while Truist fell 1.8%. PNC was down 1.8%, and Capital One lost 2%. Among the biggest losers were Citizens Financial, which declined 2.9%, and Ally Financial, which dropped 2.7%. Investors, rattled by the collapse of regional banks in California and New York this year, have been watching closely for signs of stress in the industry as rising interest rates force firms to pay more for deposits and bump up the cost of funding from alternative sources. At the same time, those higher rates are eroding the value of banks' assets and making it harder for commercial real estate borrowers to refinance their debts, potentially weakening lenders' balance sheets. "Rising funding costs and declining income metrics will erode profitability, the first buffer against losses," Moody's wrote in a separate note explaining the moves. "Asset risk is rising, in particular for small and midsize banks with large CRE exposures."
Moody’s Cuts Credit Ratings on 10 Banks; Places 4 of the 15 Largest Banks in U.S. on Review for Possible Downgrade by Pam and Russ Martens: August 8, 2023 ~ Brace yourself for some tremors in the stock prices of banks today — especially those that have counterparty risk to the biggest U.S. banks. In a move that sent Dow futures on a steady downward plunge beginning at 5 a.m. EDT this morning (clocking in at down 268 points by 8:14 a.m.), last evening the credit ratings agency, Moody’s Investors Service, took more sweeping actions in the U.S. banking sector. Moody’s cut the ratings of 10 banks by one notch, placed six banks on review for potential downgrade, and changed its outlook to negative on 11 other banks. Causing particular alarm on Wall Street was the fact that four of the six banks that Moody’s put on review for potential downgrade rank among the 15 largest banks in the United States. They are: U.S. Bancorp, the 5th largest bank in the U.S. with $590 billion in consolidated assets; Truist, the 6th largest bank with consolidated assets of $565 billion; Bank of New York Mellon, the 11th largest bank with consolidated assets of $341 billion; and State Street, the 12th largest bank with consolidated assets of $287 billion. (Bank rankings and consolidated assets come from the Federal Reserve and are as of March 31, 2023.)Two smaller banks were also placed on review for possible downgrade: Northern Trust, the 27th largest bank with consolidated assets of $151 billion; and Frost Bank, the 44th largest bank with consolidated assets of $51 billion.The ten banks that Moody’s downgraded by one notch were, for the most part, smaller banks. They were: Amarillo National Bank, Associated Bank, N.A., BOKF, N.A., Commerce Bank, Fulton Bank, N.A., M&T Bank, Old National Bank, Pinnacle Bank, Prosperity Bank, and Webster Bank.The 11 banks that had their current ratings affirmed by Moody’s but were placed on outlook negative were: Ally Bank, Simmons Bank, Bank OZK, Fifth Third Bancorp, Regions Bank, Cadence Bank, First National Bank of Pennsylvania, Citizens Bank, N.A., Capital One, N.A., Huntington National Bank, and PNC Bank.Moody’s wrote the following as part of its reasoning for its actions: “First, there has been a decline in the stability of US banks’ deposit funding as reflected in Moody’s 21 April 2023 lowering of the US macro profile, a key input in bank ratings, from very strong- to strong +. US banks’ Q2 earnings showed material increases in funding costs as well as profitability pressures related to the significant and rapid tightening in monetary policy and inverted Treasury curve, which will continue to lower profitability and implies a weaker ability to generate capital internally. Some banks have reduced loan growth, which preserves capital but also slows the shift in their loan mix toward higher yielding assets, even as their funding costs rise, which weighs on profitability. Higher interest rates continue to reduce the value of US banks’ fixed rate securities and loans and interest rate risk is not captured well in US bank regulation and thus can create liquidity risks. Though Moody’s expects US banks will continue to benefit from Federal Reserve liquidity backstops and Federal Home Loan Bank system funding, these funding sources require collateral, come at a greater cost than deposits and can have shorter duration than core deposits. Banks that depend on more concentrated or higher levels of uninsured deposits are more exposed to these pressures, especially banks with high levels of fixed rate securities and loans.”The reference in the last sentence above to “uninsured deposits” should wake up federal regulators to their hubris in allowing the mega banks on Wall Street to recklessly build up their holdings of uninsured deposits. (See our July 25 article: Trillions of Dollars in Uninsured Deposits Are Now a Serious Albatross Around the Necks of the Mega Banks on Wall Street.)This is now the second time in a little over three months that Moody’s has raised alarm bells about the U.S. banking sector. As referenced in its statement above, it downgraded the whole U.S. banking sector on April 21, writing as follows:
BankThink: Banks' credit downgrades doesn't mean the sky is falling — but it can still fall | American Banker - A cliche that I try to avoid is the expression "the fish rots from the head," which is meant to say that when things go bad it's the fault of whomever is in charge. As someone who has seen a lifetime's worth of dead fish, I can tell you that all parts of a fish that is no longer living will decay at an equal rate — the expression perhaps comes from the observation that seagulls and other wildlife will often eat the head of a fish first. With that being said, just because an expression is not literally true does not mean that the metaphor doesn't hold true, as it does when applied to today's news that Moody's downgraded a number of regional banks and are poised to downgrade several large banks in the coming weeks. That news comes a week after fellow bond rating agency Fitch downgraded U.S. sovereign debt — and more than a decade after S&P did the same — and those downgrades were both attributed to greater uncertainty around the U.S. government's ability to perform its minimum fiduciary duty to honor its debts. These are two separate things, but they are related. Moody's downgrades are largely reflective of the overarching interest rate risks that banks face right now — costs of funds are going up, values of long-dated treasury bonds are going down, and margins are getting tighter. So over time, as those long-dated bonds mature and the zero-interest-rate episode between 2008 and 2021 works its way through the financial system, there is reason to think banks will navigate these straits and end up being fine. But at the risk of repeating myself, there is also reason to be concerned about whether the United States will continue to functionally govern itself as a single unit or will devolve into an Andy Capp cartoon. The debt ceiling is something we're not talking about as much anymore, but we all know it's going to be back. And I sincerely worry about what is going to happen after the 2024 election, regardless of which candidate wins. That's the bad news. The good news is that, at least for now, there isn't another sovereign debt game in town that comes anywhere close to rivaling the United States. If you look at a list of credit ratings for sovereign debt, you will find several that are more highly rated than the U.S. — Denmark, Australia, Switzerland, etc. But the closest rival that reflects the economic scale of the U.S. is the EU, whose credit rating is about the same but whose governance is far more confederated than ours. That makes it hard to compare apples-to-apples. By contrast, non-democracies — China, Saudi Arabia, Russia — are far, far riskier and thereby far, far less attractive as a store of value. That should be instructive for those individuals of all political stripes who are in positions of power. It is they who occupy the head of this collective fish we call the United States, and as such have the power to keep us healthy, alive and swimming in the water. If our governance risk continues to deteriorate, we all could be left to rot.
Banks, usually hungry for growth, are now looking to shrink -Bankers that long focused on growth have a new goal: getting smaller.The goal isn't universal, as some banks still see opportunities and are picking up the pieces their competitors are leaving behind. But much of the industry is slimming down.Bankers are tightening their underwriting. They're cutting back or calling it quits on riskier or less profitable businesses. And they're selling loans they no longer want, which helps them shrink their balance sheets and raise cash."Growing in today's environment, at the same rate as what you're used to, is less profitable," said Chris McGratty, head of U.S. bank research at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, pointing to rising deposit costs that are narrowing the profits banks make on loans. "So banks are being more selective on what they put on their balance sheets."The slimming down is particularly prominent at banks with more than $100 billion of assets, which are preparing to comply with tougher capital rules from the Federal Reserve. Trimming risk-weighted assets improves a bank's capital ratios at a time when some banks will likely have to start holding bigger cushions to guard against losses.Capital One Financial in McLean, Virginia, put $900 million of its commercial office loans up for sale. Citizens Financial in Providence, Rhode Island, said it would stop offering loans to car buyers in collaboration with auto dealers. Truist Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, sold a $5 billion student loan portfolio.At Cincinnati, Ohio-based Fifth Third Bancorp, executives said they're on an "RWA diet." In other words, they're reducing the company's risk-weighted assets as they bolster capital ratios ahead of the new Fed rules.Regional banks aren't the only ones looking to get smaller. Banks "of all shapes and sizes" are seeing opportunities to exit certain businesses or sell some loans, said Terry McEvoy, a bank analyst at Stephens.Banks may take a loss by selling loans below their original value, but getting rid of them earlier may also have benefits. For example, if a glut of office loans becomes available for sale, the properties' values may plummet, causing bigger losses among banks that waited to sell, McEvoy said."Those that are the first to exit may get the best price when it's all said and done, and we're not going to know that for quite some time," McEvoy said.
The 25 Largest U.S. Banks Are Seeing the Largest Fall in Deposits in 38 Years With No Signs of Letting Up --By Pam and Russ Martens: Deposits at the 25-largest domestically-chartered U.S. commercial banks peaked at $11.680 trillion on April 13, 2022, according to the updated H.8 data maintained at the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). As of the most current H.8 data for the week ending on Wednesday, July 26, 2023, deposits stood at $10.709 trillion at those 25 commercial banks, a dollar decline of $970 billion and a percentage decline of 8.3 percent.Equally noteworthy, the decline shows no signs of letting up. According to the FRED data, between July 5 and the most current reading on July 26, the 25 largest U.S. banks shed $174 billion in deposits.Despite all of the misleading news reports about depositors seeking out the perceived safety of the largest banks since the banking crisis in the spring, it’s actually been the smaller banks that have staged a comeback on growing deposits since the week of April 26. (See chart above.)As of March 31 of this year, according to FDIC data, there were a total of 4,096 commercial banks in the U.S., meaning that if you segregate the 25 largest banks, that leaves 4,071 falling into the H.8 category of small, domestically chartered commercial banks.This breakdown does not give the American people a quick pulse beat on the dangers lurking in the U.S. banking system – a system that imploded in 2008 and was on its way to imploding again this spring until the Fed stepped in with another bailout program. In the span of seven weeks this spring, running from March 10 to May 1, the second, third, and fourth largest bank failures in U.S. history occurred. In order of size, those were: First Republic Bank (May 1), Silicon Valley Bank (March 10) and Signature Bank (March 12). The largest bank failure in U.S. history, Washington Mutual, occurred in 2008 during the financial crisis.Because there are only four domestically-chartered commercial banks in the U.S. with more than $1 trillion in deposits – JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup’s Citibank – it behooves Americans to closely monitor what is happening at these four banks, which hold such a highly concentrated share of the banking system’s deposits and assets. That is especially true given that one of those four banks, Citigroup, blew itself up in 2008 and received the largest Fed and Treasury bailout in U.S. banking history.Given this history, it would make far more sense for the Fed to provide this deposit data in the following breakdowns: deposits at mega banks with more than $1 trillion in deposits; deposits at large banks with $200 billion to $1 trillion in deposits; and deposits at small and medium banks with less than $200 billion in deposits.Monitoring what is going on at these four behemoth banks should make nightly network news and the front pages of newspapers – but rarely does. This lack of media attention allows a five-count felon bank like JPMorgan Chase to continue its serial crimes while simultaneously getting bigger. JPMorgan Chase was allowed by federal regulators to gobble up the failed First Republic Bank this year, despite the fact that JPMorgan Chase is currently being credibly charged in federal court by the Attorney General of the U.S. Virgin Islands with “actively participating” in Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking of underage girls for more than a decade.What could be more damaging to a mom and pop bank’s reputation, with more than 5,000 Chase Bank branches dotting the landscape across America, than credible charges from the Attorney General of the U.S. Virgin Islands that JPMorgan Chase sold out young girls as sex slaves for more than a decade in order to get wealthy client referrals from Jeffrey Epstein?The Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals called what the U.S. Department of Justice allowed to happen to these girls “beyond scandalous” and “a national disgrace.” And yet, the U.S. Department of Justice has left it to the Virgin Islands to bring civil charges while it remains missing in action on bringing criminal charges against JPMorgan Chase.Allowing a bank with this serial history of outrageous crimes to get even bigger and more dangerous did not escape the attention of Senator Elizabeth Warren. On May 17, Warren sent a letter to federal regulators pointing out the problems with the JPMorgan Chase/First Republic deal. Warren wrote:“…it resulted in a $13 billion cost to the Federal Deposit Insurance Fund – which will ultimately be passed on to ordinary bank consumers across the country – and made JPMorgan, the nation’s biggest bank, even bigger. JPMorgan will also record a $2.6 billion gain from the deal…”
Brown: Fed dragging feet on merger review process — In a letter to the Federal Reserve, a group of Democratic banking committee senators asked regulators to review their bank merger approach, particularly in the aftermath of the three large regional bank failures earlier this year. The letter comes as a number of regulators have signaled tougher rules around the mergers of large regional banks, most recently with Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter saying in a speech earlier this year that the Department of Justice will expand the number of considerations in its bank merger review process. But while individual Fed regulators, including Michael Barr, the central bank's top bank regulator, have said that the Fed is considering how to more closely scrutinize bank mergers, the group of Democratic lawmakers, led by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, criticized the Fed for not taking enough concrete action. "The application of the financial stability factor has not been rigorous enough," the lawmakers, who also include Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Jack Reed, D-R.I., and John Fetterman, D-Pa, wrote. "In the past, Federal Reserve orders approving mergers have contained cursory analysis and reasoning to support the determination that such mergers would not result in greater financial stability risk." The lawmakers said they are concerned that the Fed hasn't issued any rules or guidance indicating the types of bank mergers that might raise financial stability concerns. That's especially true as regulators consider how to prevent situations where the failures of any large regional banks could result in a systemic risk exception, as it did with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank earlier this year. "While rapid growth and poor risk management contributed to SVB's ultimate failure, the lack of any financial stability analysis in the prior merger approval demonstrates that the Federal Reserve needs a more thoughtful way to consider and explain a merger's risk to financial stability," the senators said in their letter. According to the letter, the Fed hasn't begun to reevaluate its approach to bank mergers, or asked for public feedback on its merger process, instead continuing "to approve mergers under the old rubric."
BankThink: CFPB's new reporting rule creates major compliance challenges | American Banker -- Barring intervention from the courts, a new regulation is set to go into effect in late 2024 that will impact all financial institutions offering credit to small businesses. Earlier this year, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) unveiled its long-awaited final rule implementing Section 1071 of the Dodd-Frank Act (DFA). In an effort to promote fairness, transparency and accountability, the CFPB rule creates new reporting requirements for small-business lenders. Under the new rule, small-business lenders must now collect and report information regarding all small-business credit applications they receive, including business credit cards. The rule now covers traditional banks, credit unions and nonbank financial institutions that originate a minimum of 100 loans annually. In order to support the new requirements, small-business lenders need to assess processes, procedures, and technology now to be prepared to comply by the effective date, an effort that will impose a significant cost and a process burden on them. In our world of ever-changing technology and compliance, it is important for regulators to craft regulations that protect consumers and the financial system, while at the same time taking advantage of new technologies and leveraging existing processes, data and reporting. This will help lessen the burden on lenders as they work to balance the need for making internal adaptations and changes to keep up with the new rules and regulations, while also meeting the needs of their customers and staying competitive in an expanding industry. With the myriad of institution types in the market today regulators should consider not only the size of an institution (community, de novo, regional, etc.) but also the technology and platforms used across the industry. Many run legacy mainframe systems, which make it more difficult and costly to respond quickly to regulatory changes. This makes it important to have time to determine if short-term workarounds can be implemented until permanent solutions can be developed. Update: Since this article was originally drafted, a federal judge has granted a preliminary injunction in a lawsuit filed against the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The injunction provides plaintiffs relief from the enforcement of the agency's small-business data collection rule until after the Supreme Court decides next year on whether the bureau's funding is constitutional.
Judge's CFPB data rule pause could open a lane for late fee rule opponents -- Credit card companies are getting ready for a fight over the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's plan to cut credit card late fees to $8 from the current rate of between $31 and $40 — a move that could wipe out 75% of annual bank earnings from late fees. Trade groups have already said they will sue the bureau based on Administrative Procedure Act violations and other legal bases when the rule is finalized sometime this fall. But some analysts think the credit card industry may move sooner to block the rule's implementation because theSupreme Court is poised to decide whether the agency itself is constitutional sometime next year."They should all sue," said Alan Kaplinsky, senior counsel at the law firm Ballard Spahr. "If the CFPB were acting properly, they would decide not to finalize any regulation until after the Supreme Court has decided the case early next year. All the final rules — and that includes the credit card late fee regulation — should be put on ice."That argument is bolstered by a ruling last week in which a federal judge agreed to temporarily halt banks' compliance with another CFPB rule on small-business data collection because of the pending Supreme Court case. But other analysts think the CFPB will move forward with a final rule regardless of any legal challenges. "We have an administrative force that's out there that's moving forward in a very specific direction, regardless of the eventual outcomes," said Ed Groshans, senior policy and research analyst at Compass Point Research & Trading. "It's almost this type of spaghetti-making machine where they're just throwing as much stuff against the wall to see what sticks."The CFPB's proposal would make several major changes. It reduces the late fee 'safe harbor' amount to a flat $8, compared to the current maximum of $30 for a first violation and $41 for subsequent violations. Credit card companies that set fees at or below the $8 safe harbor are protected from legal liability.Those with late fees above $8 would have to show the CFPB their costs and losses associated with late payments to justify charging a higher amount. The CFPB's plan also would put an end to the automatic annual inflation adjustments for late payments, and would cap the late fee amount at 25% of the minimum payment. Technically, the CFPB will amend Regulation Z that implements the Truth in Lending Act.
WeWork’s Stock Imploded to 13 Cents Yesterday; Its Cult-Master, Adam Neumann, Cashed Out Years Ago and Is a Billionaire By Pam and Russ Martens: August 10, 2023 ~ That office space company we warned our readers about so extensively in 2019, WeWork, collapsed to 13 cents a share yesterday. Its bonds were trading at about 13 cents on the dollar. WeWork’s stock has been on a steady decline since the company began to trade publicly on October 21, 2021. The chart above shows how investors would have fared in WeWork stock versus a 10-year U.S. Treasury note since WeWork started trading in 2021. The collapse in the share price this week came as a result of an 8-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday in which the company uttered these discomforting words: “…as a result of the Company’s losses and projected cash needs, combined with increased member churn and current liquidity levels, substantial doubt exists about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.”The reason we invested so much digital ink on WeWork back in 2019 was because some very shrewd Wall Street lawyers and investment bankers were planning to dump this dog on the American people as an IPO with an insane valuation.JPMorgan Securities LLC, a unit of five-felony-count JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs & Co. were to be the lead underwriters on the IPO. Scott Galloway, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business, wrote on his blog at the time that “bankers (JPM and Goldman) stand to register $122 million in fees flinging feces at retail investors….” The deal was so dodgy that Galloway took to calling it WeWTF. Wall Street On Parade called WeWork’s planned IPO “hype wrapped in subterfuge.” We said “It’s a money-losing commercial real estate company attempting to pass itself off as the Dalai Lama of office space rentals. The company has never made a dime of profits and its losses spiraled to $900 million in the first half of this year.”To enhance its valuation, WeWork lamely attempted to suggest it was tied to technological breakthroughs. We explained in 2019:“We’re also going to have to excise ‘the extensive technology infrastructure’ because what they’re really talking about is not Silicon Valley breakthrough technology but jazzing up drab offices with beer taps, microbrewed coffee, fruit-infused water and WiFi – the latter of which you can get for free in any Panera’s, along with a table and chair, for the price of a cup of herbal tea.”In an attempt to give this lipstick-on-a-pig of an IPO added luster, WeWork was represented by a very sophisticated law firm, Skadden Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom. The Wall Street bank underwriters were represented by another sophisticated law firm, Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett. How all of these legal eagles yawned at the conflicts of the then Chairman and CEO of WeWork, Adam Neumann, was a question worthy of the napping SEC.As then Chairman and CEO of WeWork, Neumann owed his loyalty to the company under the past century of corporate law. But, instead, he was allowed to buy up commercial real estate on his own behalf and then lease it back to WeWork. According to the IPO prospectus, WeWork was leasing four properties from Neumann on which it owed “future undiscounted minimum lease payments” of “approximately $236.6 million….”Neumann owned another six properties which WeWork might decide to buy from him according to the prospectus. Unfortunately, Neumann had the right to overrule the Board of Directors according to the prospectus:
Bank upheaval drives increase in mortgage payoff fraud --Fraud attempts on mortgage payoffs increased by five times in the second quarter versus the prior three months, and based on July's data, that elevated pace is still ongoing, CertifID found. Among the causes is the disruption in the banking industry caused by three high profile failures earlier this year, which resulted in shifts in deposit relationships.The change opened the door for the fraudsters, explained Thomas Cronkright, the co-founder and executive chairman at CertifID.The fraud prevention company unveiled its PayoffProtect verification product last September. In the second quarter, PayoffProtect caught $12 million of fraudulent payoffs, up from just $1.9 million in the first quarter.The crisis at Silicon Valley Bank, the first high profile failure, happened on March 10. That started a chain of events where depositors pulled money from similarly situated depositories, which later also resulted in the closures of Signature Bank and First Republic Bank.And within that transfer of liquid assets is where the fraudsters are able to find an opening. They pretend to be the entity receiving the payoff and contact the party responsible for moving the funds, saying they had previously been using a community bank.The perpetrators claimed that they instead had established a new relationship with another bank and the funds needed to be sent to accounts there that they controlled. "There was a ton of that going on during this period that we reported against," Cronkright said. And because this was tied to an ongoing news story, victims had their guard down. Higher home values are playing into the opportunity. "The title settlement industry handles a lot of payments where the buyer is receiving a substantial net proceeds amount, but it pales in comparison to the mortgage obligations that are satisfied at closing," Cronkright said. And at the end of the first quarter, total mortgage debt outstanding was over $12 trillion.It is not just the old line attributed to Willie Sutton about robbing banks because it's where the money is, but another adage as well, which is that these fraudsters never retire a successful scam, Cronkright said. It's easy for the criminal to impersonate the borrower and obtain loan payoff information. And on the other end, institutions need to be more diligent in verifying where the funds are being transferred to. In one case, CertifID had the fraudulent information and used it to test a financial institution and four times a bank employee said the data was correct, Cronkright said.Once they find success, the crooks are able to "layer in" and set up multiple transactions where they attempt to divert funds, he continued.And this is just another flavor of the same business email compromise scams, which have plagued all sorts of commerce in recent years. Later, when they have indications that the transaction is progressing, a fraudster is able to imitate the borrower or another legitimate party.
FHFA stress tests reveal new vulnerabilities in U.S. housing market -- Government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two of the largest investors in the U.S. mortgage market, would experience combined credit losses of $35 billion in the event of a severe financial downturn, according to a report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency released Thursday. The annual Dodd-Frank Stress test, which examines how balance sheets of high-value federally regulated entities would be impacted in the event of a global recession, reflected a staggering increase in estimated losses from last year, when the same test initially projected they'd be more than $17 billion. (The 2022 stress test number for credit losses underwent a slight downward revision earlier this year after Fannie identified some errors in its model and adjusted for them, bringing that number slightly below $17 billion.) While the credit losses in the stress tests, defined as net charge-offs plus foreclosed property expenses, were markedly higher than a year ago, the FHFA found Fannie and Freddie would generally be sufficiently capitalized to withstand the shock. Notwithstanding adjustments for allowances on deferred tax assets, both would generate positive comprehensive income under the stressed scenario. That means Fannie has the capacity to absorb more than $21 billion in credit losses modeled while Freddie would be able to take on almost $14 billion. Under revised numbers for last year, Fannie would have taken on somewhere between $10 billion and $11 billion in credit losses in a stressed scenario, and Freddie would have taken on more than $6 billion. However, Fannie's number for total comprehensive income after a severely adverse stress, at $6 billion, was about half of that seen in last year's revised numbers. Freddie's TCI, $4 billion, was around two-thirds of what it produced under the stresses modeled for 2022. And with reserves set aside to offset potential losses on deferred tax assets, both enterprises would be in the red under the stressed scenario this year. Fannie would record a total comprehensive loss of $7.8 billion. Freddie would record a smaller loss of $600 million. Freddie remained profitable even with an allowance for deferred tax assets in place last year.
Fannie "Real Estate Owned" inventory Decreased in Q2 - Fannie reported results for Q2 2023. Here is some information on single-family Real Estate Owned (REOs). Foreclosure have increased slightly year-over-year since the end of the foreclosure moratorium. Fannie Mae reported the number of REOs decreased to 8,615 at the end of Q2 2023, down from 8,780 in Q1 2022, and up 13% from 7,637 at the end of Q2 2022. For Fannie, this is down 95% from the 166,787 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010.Here is a graph of Fannie Real Estate Owned (REO).This is well below a normal level of REOs for Fannie, and REO levels will increase further in 2023, but there will not be a huge wave of foreclosures.
Foreclosure numbers fall in July as starts decrease -- Foreclosure starts dropped for the first time in three months, although repossessions ticked up, as rising property values may be easing some difficulties facing struggling homeowners, according to a report from Attom. The number of overall foreclosure filings, consisting of default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions, dropped to 31,877 in July, 9% below the previous month's total, the real estate data and business intelligence provider said. The figure amounted to a rate of one in every 4,380 property units in the country with a filing, compared to one in every 3,972 in June. July's numbers, though, were 5% higher on a year-over-year basis, but still reflect favorable trends for homeowners, according to Attom CEO Rob Barber. "The slight decline in foreclosure filings we are seeing is yet another sign of a rebounding housing market. With home prices back up, several factors have combined to put more financial resources in the hands of homeowners, providing more options to avoid foreclosure," he said in a press release. Recent data from CoreLogic show home values appreciating by almost 5% in the first half of the year, which may be providing an outlet for struggling borrowers, helping them avoid serious distress. At the same time, efforts to find new loss-mitigation strategies continue after success with some programs introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic.. But even though overall filings headed downward, completed foreclosures resulting in bank repossessions grew to 3,332, up 4% from 3,215 in June and 9% annually, moving closer to pre-pandemic levels. But the increase comes after the repo total fell by 20% in June. Illinois, Pennsylvania and California led the country in July with 355, 230 and 217 repossessions, respectively. New foreclosure starts, which fell 12% on a monthly basis and 2% from one year earlier to 21,020 units, offset the rise in repossessions. Among metropolitan areas with more than 1 million residents, Salt Lake City saw the greatest improvement, with 63% fewer starts from June. Honolulu's total shrank by 53%, followed by Kansas City, Missouri, with a 46% decline. Hawaii led all states with 51% fewer new foreclosure notices. States on the Eastern seaboard led the nation with the highest rates of overall foreclosure notices, inclusive of all filings. Maryland, where one in every 2,071 housing units had a notice, landed at the top of the list. New Jersey and Delaware followed with rates of one in 2,335 and one in 2,343. While July's data suggest homeowners are increasingly finding means to stay current on their mortgages, volatility in both the housing market and overall economy still poses a threat for disruption. While unemployment remains near historic lows and the pace of inflation has slowed, mortgage rates hovered near 7% in early August. "Given the U.S. housing market remains in flux, the various forces at play could keep the market improving or turn it back downward over the coming months," Barber said.
MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Second Quarter of 2023"; Lowest Level on Record --From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Second Quarter of 2023The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.37 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2023, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.The delinquency rate was down 19 basis points from the first quarter of 2023 and down 27 basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the second quarter fell by 3 basis points to 0.13 percent.“The seasonally-adjusted mortgage delinquency rate fell to its lowest level since MBA’s survey began in 1979, reaching 3.37 percent in the second quarter of 2023,” . “Buoyed by a resilient job market, homeowners are continuing to make their mortgage payments.”Walsh noted that delinquencies fell across all mortgage types – conventional, FHA, and VA. Both foreclosure starts and foreclosure inventory also declined relative to the previous quarter.“Despite low delinquency rates, there are early signs of possible consumer credit stress. Delinquencies are rising for other forms of credit such as credit cards and car loans[1]. In addition, FHA delinquencies rose 10 basis points compared to year ago levels. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, FHA delinquencies rose 13 basis points year-over-year and 71 basis points from the first quarter of 2023. As the economy slows and labor market cools, homeowners with FHA loans are likely to feel the distress first.” This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Overall delinquencies decreased in Q2. From the MBA: Compared to last quarter, the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate decreased for all loans outstanding. By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate decreased 2 basis points to 1.75 percent, the 60-day delinquency rate remained unchanged at 0.55 percent, and the 90-day delinquency bucket decreased 17 basis points to 1.07 percent....The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the second quarter was 0.53 percent, down 4 basis points from the first quarter of 2023 and 6 basis points lower than one year ago.The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased slightly year-over-year in Q2 even with the end of the foreclosure moratoriums and are historically low.
Delinquency rate now at its lowest since 1979 - The nationwide delinquency rate decreased for the second consecutive quarter, dropping to a decades-long low, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.The share of outstanding mortgages for one-to-four unit properties with a missed payment stood at a seasonally adjusted 3.37% at the end of June, according to the MBA. The percentage reflected a 19 basis-point drop from 3.56% at first-quarter's end, the second lowest delinquency rate at the time since at least 1979, when the MBA first began reporting the data. At the end of second quarter 2022, the national delinquency rate was 3.64%. Generally favorable economic data, including wage growth and historically low unemployment figures, are helping to keep borrowers from distress, according to Marina Walsh, MBA vice president of industry analysis."Buoyed by a resilient job market, homeowners are continuing to make their mortgage payments," she said in a press release. Second-quarter numbers fell across all primary mortgage types: conventional loans and government products guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration and the Department of Veterans Affairs. The delinquency rate for conventional mortgages declined 15 basis points quarter-to-quarter to 2.29%, its lowest since 2004. For VA-backed loans, the share of delinquent mortgages relative to overall volume was 3.7%. The FHA rate came in at 8.95%, reflecting a 32 basis point reduction. On an annual basis, both conventional and VA delinquency rates also dropped by 35 and 52 basis points, respectively. But the share of FHA-guaranteed loans in arrears grew by 10 basis points, a possible sign of economic and credit stress hitting some segments of consumers, Walsh said.'Delinquencies are rising for other forms of credit such as credit cards and car loans," she said. "As the economy slows and labor market cools, homeowners with FHA loans are likely to feel the distress first." The MBA's report comes after Federal Reserve economists revealed this week credit card balances surpassed $1 trillion for the first time ever. Late payments on credit cards also rose compared to a year ago but showed more recent signs of moderation.MBA calculates delinquencies based on the volume of loans at least one payment past due but does not include mortgages in the foreclosure process. In its research, MBA asks servicers to report loans in forbearance as delinquent if the payment was not made based on the original terms of the mortgage.By stage, the rate of mortgages with payments 30 days past due came in at 1.75%, while the 60-day delinquency share stood at 0.55%. Loans delinquent by 90 days or more equaled 1.07%. Foreclosure numbers, while not included in the MBA's delinquency data, appeared to be on a similar downward track. The total share of mortgages going through some stage of the foreclosure process was 0.53% as of June 30, down by 4 and 6 basis points quarterly and annually. New foreclosure starts in the second quarter inched down to a rate of 0.13%, 3 basis points lower from where they sat at the end of March.
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased in July -From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Recedes 1% in July The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, declined 0.9% in July to 193.4 (2000=100) from the revised June reading of 195.1. Over the month, the commercial component of the DMI remained relatively flat, ticking down 0.2%, while the institutional component fell 1.9%.“While both segments of the Index fell this month, underlying project data points to divergent trends in the nonresidential sector,” said Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for Dodge Construction Network. “In comparison to January 2023, commercial planning activity is down 10% through July, while institutional planning is up 16%. Distinctly large institutional projects entering planning in May temporarily inflated month-to-month trends, but activity has since ticked down. As we progress through the remainder of 2023, weaker commercial activity, resulting from tighter lending standards and higher interest rates, will counter sturdier institutional activity, bolstered by public funding and less sensitivity to interest rates.”All commercial sectors pulled back, or remained flat, over the month of July. Hotel planning saw the largest month-over-month decay, marking four months of consecutive decline in the sector. July also saw a deceleration in the number of education and healthcare projects entering planning — the two largest institutional segments....The DMI is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 193.4 in July, down from 195.1 the previous month.According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggests some slowdown towards the end of 2023 or in 2024. Commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator.
Mortgage Rates Jump to Holy-Moly 7.09%, FHA Rates to Highest in 20 Years, Pulling Rug Out from Under Home Sales in August -by Wolf Richter - The 7%+ mortgages are doing their magic on the housing market as they keep buyers out of the market, and home sales sagged further in late July and August, from already dismal levels, as indicated by weekly applications for mortgages to purchase a home. The average interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming balances jumped to 7.09%, from 6.93% in the prior reporting week, the third highest since January 2002, with only two weeks last November having been marginally higher than this reporting week, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association today. FHA mortgage rates rose to 7.02%, highest rate since 2002. Rates on jumbo mortgages (greater than $726,200) rose to 7.04%. “Treasury yields rates rose last week and mortgage rates followed suit due to a combination of the Treasury’s funding announcement and the downgrading of the U.S. government debt rating,” the MBA said. Yup, the Treasury Department’s announcement a week ago of a tsunami of issuance of longer-term Treasury notes and bonds to fund the ballooning government deficits was followed the next day by Fitch’s downgrade of the US credit rating from ‘AAA’ to ‘AA+’.’. And they’re now getting blamed for the jump in mortgage rates. In other words, the government’s reckless deficits and borrowing going back many years are now getting blamed for our holy-moly mortgage rates. It surely plays a part; inflation and the Fed’s reaction to tamp down on inflation play another part, as do a bunch of other interrelated things. The whole thing is a mess, and the result is that mortgage rates are over 7%. And amid these holy-moly mortgage rates, home buyers have vanished, we have seen that for a while, and it got worse. Applications for mortgages to purchase a home dropped for the fourth week in a row, from the already low levels that had prevailed for months, to the third-lowest volume since 1995, the two lowest volume-weeks having been in late February this year, according to the MBA today.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 3.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 4, 2023.The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 37 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 27 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Treasury yields rates rose last week and mortgage rates followed suit, due to a combination of the Treasury’s funding announcement and the downgrading of the U.S. government debt rating. Rates increased for all loan types in our survey, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increasing to 7.09 percent, the highest level since November 2022,” “Additionally, the rate for FHA mortgages increased to 7.02 percent, the highest rate since 2002. Not surprisingly, mortgage applications continued to decline given these higher rates, with overall application counts falling for the third consecutive week, as both purchase and refinance activity declined. The purchase index fell for the fourth consecutive week, as homebuyers continue to struggle with low for-sale inventory and elevated mortgage rates.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 7.09 percent from 6.93 percent, with points increasing to 0.70 from 0.68 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 27% year-over-year unadjusted. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022 - and has mostly flat lined at a low level since then.
Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 9% YoY; New Listings Down 14% YoY -- Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Aug 5, 2023 Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 9%.. This week marks a 7th consecutive decline in the number of homes actively for sale compared to the prior year, and the gap is growing. New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 14% from one year ago. For 57 weeks, there have been fewer newly listed homes compared to the same time one year ago. The gap is starting to shrink as we get into a comparison against low new listings in the second half of 2022. This week’s data shows a 2.5 percentage point improvement over last week as the market slowly trends in a buyer-friendly direction, reflecting a stabilization of the low new listings count.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was down 9.1% year-over-year - this was the seventh consecutive week with a YoY decrease following 58 consecutive weeks with a YoY increase in inventory. Inventory is still up from the record lows in the 2nd half of 2021 and early 2022, and it is unlikely we will see new record lows by this measure this year.
‘Renters Are Struggling’: Economists Back Tenant-Led Push for Federal Rent Control --More than 30 U.S. economists have signed a letter expressing support for strong federal tenant protections and rent control as housing costs remain sky-high, even amid broadly cooling inflation.The economists note in their letter, released Thursday, that the median rent in the U.S. “has surpassed $2,000 for the first time, and there is not a single state where a worker earning a full-time minimum wage salary can afford a modest two-bedroom apartment.”“We have seen corporate landlords—who own a larger share of the rental market than ever before—use inflation as an excuse to hike rents and reap excess profits beyond what should be considered fair and reasonable,” the letter continues. “Renters are struggling as a result.”The letter’s signatories—including Mark Paul of Rutgers University, James K. Galbraith of the University of Texas at Austin, and Isabella Weber of the University of Massachusetts Amherst—call on the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to require rent regulations as a condition for federally-backed mortgages and reject the “economics 101 model that predicts rent regulations will have negative effects on the housing sector,” likening it to typical arguments against raising the minimum wage.“Empirical research on local rent control policies in San Francisco, CA and New York, NY found that rent regulations lower housing costs for households living in regulated units,” the economists wrote. “In Cambridge, MA, empirical research showed that the repeal of rent stabilization laws resulted in an average rent increase of $131 for tenants.”Given that “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages on the secondary market support nearly half of rental units in the U.S.,” they argued, “Government Sponsored Entities (GSEs) have the influence needed to meaningfully change the trajectory of the housing crisis.”The economists’ letter is part of a broader push by tenant rights groups and housing justice organizations to secure federal protections against egregious rent hikes and wrongful evictions.Earlier this week, 17 U.S. senators wrote in a letter to the FHFA that “renters also have too few protections, making them vulnerable to steep rent increases and deteriorating housing conditions—factors that are out of their control.”“Tenant protections vary drastically from state to state and even sometimes from county to county, often leaving renters without recourse,” the senators added. “There have been repeated reports of investors using low-cost financing from Enterprise-backed loans to buy properties and then sharply raising rents, mistreating tenants, and allowing buildings to fall into disrepair.”More than 140 academics, over 70 climate researchers, and dozens of local elected officials have also joined the call for nationwide rent regulations. “Due to lack of regulation, affordable housing is lost quicker than it can be built,”. “Corporate landlords call the shots with federal financing through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That’s why tenants spent this summer organizing to win what we need: federal tenant protections like caps on annual rent increases.”
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 1.0% Year-over-year --From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 5 August": U.S. hotel performance declined from the previous week and showed lower comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 August. ...30 July – 5 August 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2022):
• Occupancy: 68.9% (-1.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$158.10 (+2.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$108.97 (+1.2%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2023, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2022. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is below the median rate for the period 2000 through 2022 (Blue).The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is probably at or near a peak for the year.
NY Fed Q2 Report: Household Debt Increased Slightly, Mortgage Balances "Unchanged" -From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Reaches $17.06 Trillion in Q2 2023; Credit Card Debt Exceeds $1 Trillion - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows a slight uptick in total household debt in the second quarter of 2023, increasing by $16 billion (0.1%) to $17.06 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel.Credit card balances increased by $45 billion, from $986 billion in Q1 2023 to a series high of $1.03 trillion in the Q2 2023, marking a 4.6% quarterly increase. Credit card accounts expanded by 5.48 million to 578.35 million. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased by $9 billion and now stand at $4.6 trillion.Mortgage balances were largely unchanged from the previous quarter and stood at $12.01 trillion at the end of June, in large part due to declining mortgage originations and slowing home prices. Mortgage originations, which include refinances, stood at $393 billion in the second quarter, representing a $70 billion increase from the first quarter. Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, increased by $15 billion.Auto loan balances rose by $20 billion, consistent with the upward trajectory seen since 2011. The volume of newly originated auto loans, which includes leases, was $179 billion, largely reflecting high dollar values of originated loans even as the number of newly opened loans remains below pre-pandemic levels. Student loan balances fell by $35 billion and stood at $1.57 trillion.Delinquency rates were roughly flat in the second quarter of 2023 and remained low, after declining sharply since the beginning of the pandemic. The share of debt newly transitioning into delinquency increased for credit cards and auto loans, with increases in transition rates of 0.7 and 0.4 percentage points respectively.Here are three graphs from the report:
Consumers Finally Crack: Shocking Drop In June Credit Card Debt Marks End Of Spending Binge --Two months ago when both revolving credit (i.e., credit card debt) and interest charged on credit cards hit a record high, we said that this trajectory was unsustainable and it was only a matter of time before the debt-funded US consumer hit a brick wall. One month later, the first brick wall was hit, when in May US consumer credit grew by a paltry $7.24BN, down more than 50% from the downward revised $20.3BN in April; and while revolving credit posted a healthy increase of $8.5 billion, the shocker was in the non-revolving segment, also known as student and auto loans, and which unexpectedly dropped by $1.3 billion, the first negative print since April 2020. Amusingly, in our commentary last month we also said that "with non-revolving credit now shrinking, the final straw will be the reversal in (record) credit card debt. With credit card interest rates also at a record 22.16%, we won't have long to wait."We were right as we had to wait just one month, because fast forwarding to today's release of the latest Fed consumer credit report at 3pm ET, moments ago we had another shocker, this time on the other side of the credit spectrum, because while non-revolving credit jumped by a whopping $18.5 billion, up from last month's drop (which was revised to a tiny positive print this time) a jump which will promptly reverse once the student loan repayment moratorium ends on Sept 1...
BLS: CPI increased 0.2% in July; Core CPI increased 0.2% -- From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 90 percent of the increase, with the index for motor vehicle insurance also contributing. The food index increased 0.2 percent in July after increasing 0.1 percent the previous month. The index for food at home increased 0.3 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in July. The energy index rose 0.1 percent in July as the major energy component indexes were mixed.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in July, as it did in June. Indexes which increased in June include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, education, and recreation. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, medical care, and communication were among those that decreased over the month.The all items index increased 3.2 percent for the 12 months ending July, slightly more than the 3.0-percent increase for the 12 months ending in June. The all items less food and energy index rose 4.7 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 12.5 percent for the 12 months ending July, and the food index increased 4.9 percent over the last year. CPI and core CPI were at expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.
U.S. inflation rises for the first time in a year to 3.2% rate, but underlying measures remain mild - — Inflation in the United States rose in July after 12 straight months of declines, boosted by costlier housing. But excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core inflation matched the smallest monthly increase in nearly two years. The inflation figure the government reported Thursday showed that consumer prices increased 3.2% percent from a year earlier. That was up from a 3 percent annual rise in June, which was the lowest rate in more than two years. The July inflation figure remained far below last year’s peak of 9.1 percent, though still above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. The Fed, economists and investors, though, pay particular attention to the core inflation figures for signs of where inflationary pressures might be headed. From June to July, core inflation remained a tame 0.2 percent. Thursday’s price data will be among the key barometers the Fed will weigh in deciding whether to continue raising interest rates. In its drive to tame inflation, the Fed has raised its benchmark rate 11 times since March 2022 to a 22-year high. A jump in energy prices has rekindled some of the inflation pressures underlying the economy. Gasoline prices have surged nearly 30 cents over the past month to a national average of $3.83 a gallon, according to AAA. Economists say that in the fight to conquer inflation, the easy progress has likely already been achieved. Gasoline prices, for example, though liable to bounce around from month to month, have already plunged from a peak national average of more than $5 a gallon, which was reached in June of last year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Much of the inflationary surge that began in 2021 was caused by clogged supply chains: Ports, factories and freight yards were overwhelmed by the explosive economic rebound from the pandemic recession of 2020. The result was delays, parts shortages and higher prices. But supply-chain backlogs have eased in the past year, sharply reducing upward pressure on goods prices. Prices of long-lasting manufactured goods actually dipped in June. Now, the Fed faces a daunting problem: persistent inflationary pressures in service businesses — restaurants, hotels, entertainment venues and the like — where wages represent a substantial share of costs. Worker shortages have led many of these services companies to sharply raise pay. Last week, for example, the Labor Department reported that average hourly wages rose 4.4 percent in July from a year earlier, more than expected. To cover their higher labor costs, companies have typically raised their prices, thereby fueling inflation. Another factor working against continued declines in year-over-year inflation rates is that prices soared in the first half of last year before slowing in the second half. So any price increase in July would have the effect of boosting the year-over-year inflation rate. Still, economists caution against reading too much into one month of numbers. Many of them expect inflation to continue trending lower. Used car prices, which had skyrocketed after the pandemic, have been edging down: They dropped 5.1 percent in July from a year earlier to $29,198, according to Edmunds.com. July of last year was near the peak of used-car price spikes, resulting from a scarcity of new vehicles caused by a global computer-chip shortage. Buyers who wanted new vehicles but couldn’t find them entered the used market, sending used prices sharply higher. This year, though, used vehicle prices began to drop once automakers managed to acquire more chips and could produce more new vehicles. Many shoppers who were forced to buy used are now back in the new-vehicle market. Used-vehicle prices are expected to decline, at least modestly, through the year. Despite chronic concerns about higher labor costs, one closely watched measure of wages and salaries — the Labor Department’s employment cost index — grew more slowly from April through June. Excluding government jobs, employee pay rose 1 percent, less than the 1.2 percent increase in the first three months of 2023. Compared with a year earlier, wages and salaries grew 4.6 percent, down from a year-over-year increase of 5.1 percent in the first quarter. Rents, which had soared after the pandemic, are also cooling. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco wrote this week that “year-over-year shelter inflation will continue to slow through late 2024 and may even turn negative by mid-2024.″
End of “Disinflation” Honeymoon: CPI Accelerates YoY. Core Services CPI Accelerates MoM. Durable Goods Prices Normalize at Nosebleed Levels | by Wolf Richter - Overall Consumer Price Index rose by 3.2% in July compared to a year ago, the first year-over-year acceleration since June 2022, marking the end of the period of “disinflation” when the year-over-year inflation rate cooled. There are three reasons that we already know (more in a moment) that will cause the year-over-year CPI rate to increase further in the second half of 2023 because the disinflation honeymoon (purple in the chart below) is now over. The “Core” CPI rose by a still hot 4.7% in July, compared to a year ago, an increase that was a hair smaller than in June (+4.8%), according to data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. July was the smallest increase since October 2021. Core CPI is a measure of underlying inflation that excludes the prices of food and energy products, which gyrate wildly in both directions. The chart shows core CPI (red) and overall CPI (green). The year-over-year plunge in energy prices (still -12.5% in July despite the recent month-to-month increases!) pushed the overall CPI increases below those of core CPI. When energy prices stop plunging on a year-over-year basis, overall CPI will once again be above core CPI. The tougher second half has started. We already know this, no forecasting required:
- Energy prices don’t plunge forever. Gasoline CPI has risen 11% since December, but is still down 19.9% year-over-year. Gasoline prices collapsed in the second half of 2022, and it’s against these much lower prices that year-over-year CPI changes will be measured for the rest of the year.
- The “base effect” is starting to fade. The “base” for today’s year-over-year calculation is July 2022, which was the month the surge of the CPI started cooling sharply, driven by plunging energy prices. Those lower values in the second half of 2022 will be the base for the year-over-year calculations going forward, leading to bigger year-over-year increases.
- The odious ridiculous “health insurance adjustment” ends with September and will swing the other way. I discussed this earlier today here. It pushed down the year-over-year CPI for health insurance by 29.5%, to January 2019 levels, which pushed down medical care services CPI into the negative, despite maddening price increases. But starting in October, it will swing the other way.
On a month-to-month basis, held down by the huge odious and ridiculous health insurance adjustment, core CPI increased by 0.2% in July, same increase as in June (red in the chart below). The three-month moving average of core CPI rose by 0.25% (blue). It pushed down the year-over-year CPI for health insurance by 29.5%, to January 2019 levels, which pushed down medical care services CPI into the negative, despite maddening price increases. But starting in October, it will swing the other way. On a month-to-month basis, held down by the huge odious and ridiculous health insurance adjustment, core CPI increased by 0.2% in July, same increase as in June (red in the chart below). The three-month moving average of core CPI rose by 0.25% (blue). Core Services inflation accelerated. The index for core services (without energy services) increased by 0.35% in July from June, a sharp acceleration from June (+0.25%). This increase comes despite the odious, ridiculous, and massive adjustment to the CPI for health insurance that caused CPI for health insurance to plunge by 4.1% in July from June (my details here), which pushed the CPI for medical care services into the negative.
A Word about the Odious Ridiculous Massive Adjustments to Health Insurance CPI, which Now Collapsed to Jan 2019 Levels - By Wolf Richter - The odious ridiculous health insurance mega-adjustments started last October, and I’ve been pointing it out every month in my CPI reports. By July, it caused the health insurance CPI to collapse back to January 2019 level, and turned Medical Services CPI negative year-over-year, pushed down core services CPI, core CPI, and overall CPI. And it will continue to wreak havoc through September. You will see the details in my discussion of CPI, which I will post soon. And then in October, it will flip the other way, and will push up all measures of CPI, but particularly core services CPI and core CPI. So there’s that to look forward to. Every fall, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the CPI, undertakes annual adjustments in how it estimates the costs of health insurance. It then spreads those adjustments over the following 12 months. Last year, this adjustment cycle started in October, and it will go through September this year. Inflation in health insurance is difficult to figure because numerous factors change, not just the premium but also co-pays, deductibles, out-of-pocket maximums, what is covered and what isn’t covered, drug formularies, etc., and there are all kinds of insurance plans out there, and they all differ locally and by state. So the BLS uses a different method to estimate price changes of health insurance, the “retained earnings method,” which the BLS explains here. In the fall each year, it adjusts the index as more data become available. The entire index is an annual figure, divided into monthly increments, based on the annual “retained earnings” of insurance companies. So the month-to-month percent-changes of health insurance CPI are about the same every month for a 12-month period, and then it gets adjusted again, usually the other way. Normally the annual adjustment isn’t such a huge deal, but this time, the adjustment was ridiculously gigantic, with totally perverse effects. For the prior 12 months through September 2022, CPI overstated health insurance inflation by some amount. By September 2022, the health insurance CPI had risen by 28% year-over-year, which contributed to the big increase in CPI at the time. Then in October 2022, the adjustment kicked in. Every month since then, the CPI for health insurance, thanks to this odious adjustment, plunged month-to-month by a ridiculous 4%, give or take. In July, it plunged by 4.1% from June. This 4% month-to-month plunge, as opposed to a 2% month-to-month rise in the prior year, represents a month-to-month swing of 6 percentage points! This chart shows the month-to-month percentage changes of the health insurance CPI, including the last 10 months after the odious ridiculous massive adjustments:
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased 1.6% in July; Down 11.6% Year-over-year - From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Large Decline in June Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 1.6% in July from June. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 211.7, down 11.6% from a year ago.“The July drop of 1.6% is an indicator of slowing wholesale price declines, at least when compared to the month-over-month losses we’ve seen since April,” said Chris Frey, senior manager of Economic and Industry Insights for Cox Automotive. “While the year-over-year price drop was again double-digit, let’s put some perspective on that. From July 2020, there were 22 straight monthly double-digit increases through April 2022; we’ve had just six double-digit declines since October last year, with only four of them consecutive. Keeping to the April theme, we’re now back to the same index value last seen in April 2021: 211.7. Used retail inventory continues to rebuild; but with used retail sales also showing some summer strength, we do not foresee wholesale price declines of serious import through December.”July’s decrease was softened by the seasonal adjustment. The non-adjusted price change in July decreased by 3.8% compared to June, moving the unadjusted average price down 10.7% year over year.This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.The Manheim index suggests used car prices decreased in June (seasonally adjusted) and were down 11.6% year-over-year (YoY).
Used-Vehicle Wholesale Prices Sagged to Where They’d Been 2 Years Ago, But Are Still High. Where Will They Go? Automakers’ Finance Companies Placed their Bets - By Wolf Richter - Used vehicle wholesale prices at auction fell by 1.6% in July from June, seasonally adjusted, and by 3.8% not seasonally adjusted, and by 10.7% year-over-year, to an index value of $19,546, just about exactly where it had been in April 2021, according to the Used Vehicle Value Index by Manheim, the largest auto auction house in the US and a unit of Cox Automotive. The index is adjusted for changes in mix and mileage. During the crazy bubble spike from February 2020 through May 2022, the index had jumped by 63%, or by $8,842. The index has now worked off $3,336, or a little over one-third, of that bubble spike. The question on everyone’s mind is this: How much more will used vehicle prices drop before the price increases start all over again? And when will those price increases start all over again? This question is crucial to the financing arms of automakers when they calculate lease payments for new vehicles. They have to predict what used-vehicle wholesale values will be in two to three years to determine the residual values in their leases. They don’t want to be $10,000 on the wrong side of reality three years from now on a gazillion vehicles when their leases end. And they’re now confronted with the worst turmoil in used-vehicle wholesale pricing ever, and they had to place their bets. More in a moment. Used retail inventory has been rising off the lows in February and March. But at the beginning of July, at 2.22 million units, it was still about 500,000 units below the inventory during the same period in 2019, according to data from Cox Automotive. Retail sales were up 6% in July from June, and nearly flat with a year ago. And days’ supply, which expresses inventory in relationship to retail unit sales, dropped to 46 days at the end of July, from 49 days in the prior month, and from 54 days at the end of July 2022, according to Manheim. Where will wholesale prices be in 3 years? That’s the bet leasing companies have to make. With used-vehicle retail sales “showing some summer strength, we do not foresee wholesale price declines of serious import through December,” Manheim said. The automakers’ captive finance companies have to think beyond this year; they have to think about what will happen when the leases terminate in two or three years. Amid this pricing turmoil that started in 2020, they began de-emphasizing leases, and essentially ended leasing incentives. Increasing the residual value by an incentive amount brings down the lease payment and makes leases appealing, and they stopped doing that, and they’re still not doing it, and leasing activity plunged every year from the prior year since 2019, unlike new vehicle sales which have been bouncing back. Captive finance companies have focused on loans, rather than leases.
Trade Deficit Decreased to $65.5 Billion in June - The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $65.5 billion in June, down $2.8 billion from $68.3 billion in May, revised.June exports were $247.5 billion, $0.3 billion less than May exports. June imports were $313.0 billion, $3.1 billion less than May imports.Exports and imports decreased in June.Exports are down 4% year-over-year; imports are down 8% year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back - and both have been decreasing recently.The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have picked up.The trade deficit with China decreased to $24.1 billion from $37.0 billion a year ago.The trade deficit was slightly less than the consensus forecast.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 248,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending August 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 248,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 227,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,000, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 228,250.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Summer Teen Employment - Here is a look at the percentage of teens employed over time.The graph below shows the employment-population ratio for teens (16 to 19 years old) since 1948. The graph is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), to show the seasonal hiring of teenagers during the summer.A few observations:
1) Although teen employment has recovered some since the great recession, overall teen employment had been trending down. This is probably because more people are staying in school (a long term positive for the economy).
2) Teen employment was significantly impacted in 2020 by the pandemic.
3) A smaller percentage of teenagers are obtaining summer employment. The seasonal spikes are smaller than in previous decades. The teen employment-population ratio was 38.0% in July 2023, down from 38.4% in July 2022. The teen participation rate was 43.1% in July 2023, down from 43.6% the previous July. In general, a smaller percentage of teenagers are joining the labor force during the summer as compared to previous years. This could be because of fewer employment opportunities, or because teenagers are pursuing other activities during the summer.
4) The decline in teenager participation is one of the reasons the overall participation rate has declined (of course, the retiring baby boomers is the main reason the overall participation rate has declined over the last 20+ years).
Thousands of Los Angeles city workers walk off job for 24 hours alleging unfair labor practices (AP) — Thousands of Los Angeles city employees including sanitation workers, lifeguards and traffic officers walked off the job Tuesday for a 24-hour strike demanding higher wages and alleging unfair labor practices.Picket lines went up before dawn at Los Angeles International Airport and other locations, and a large rally was held later in the morning downtown at City Hall. SEIU Local 721 said mechanics, engineers and airport custodians are among the more than 11,000 LA city workers who are striking. The union said its members voted to authorize the one-day walkout because the city has failed to bargain in good faith and engaged in labor practices that restricted employee and union rights.
'Death Star' law will end water breaks for Texas workers - Water breaks will no longer be guaranteed for construction workers in Austin and Dallas when a new state law that prevents municipalities from regulating everything from evictions to payday loans takes effect next month. Signed by Gov. Greg Abbott (R) amid a weekslong heat wave last month, H.B. 2127 will invalidate existing local rules that are stricter than state laws when it goes into effect on Sept. 1. Opponents have dubbed it “the Death Star bill” in part because it would bar Austin and Dallas from requiring construction companies to offer 10-minute water breaks every four hours. The law is colliding with a summer of extreme heat that has broken temperature records around the world. Health experts say water breaks for outside workers can prevent hospitalizations and save lives. “Anyone can understand why that’s dangerous if they just walk outside right now,” said David Chincanchan, policy director at the Workers Defense Action Fund, a group that pushed Austin and Dallas to enact their water break ordinances in 2010 and 2015, respectively. Multiple municipalities have already sued the state over the legislation, including San Antonio, whose City Council was working on its own rest break ordinance when the law was signed. “City Council members chosen by local voters work with residents in their neighborhoods and understand their community’s needs and issue far more than lawmakers in Austin,” said San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg. The law has even caught the attention of President Joe Biden, who mentioned it in a speech about unprecedented heat waves throughout much of the nation this summer. Biden pointed to “construction workers who literally risk their lives working all day in extreme heat and in some places don’t even have the right to take a water break.”
Florida school district says trans employees can’t use pronouns, bathrooms that match their gender identity Florida’s Orange County Public Schools sent out a memo Monday that says its transgender employees and contractors can’t use the pronouns or bathrooms that match their gender identity, citing state law. The memo discusses House Bill 1069, which focuses on sex defined as an “immutable biological trait” at birth based on hormones and genitalia. Under the law, no one is allowed to be required to use a person’s “preferred personal title or pronoun,” and students are not to be asked for their pronouns. “The bill states that a transgender employee or contractor may not provide a personal title or pronoun to students which does not correspond the employee’s or contractor’s biological sex at birth,” the school district’s memo states. The second law mentioned in the memo, House Bill 1521, has to do with what bathroom an individual can use. Transgender students and employees will have single-stall bathrooms they can use — or they are allowed to use the bathroom that corresponds to their assigned sex at birth, according to the memo.
Shakespeare and penguin book get caught in Florida's 'Don't Say Gay' laws — Students in a Florida school district will be reading only excerpts from William Shakespeare’s plays for class rather than the full texts under redesigned curriculum guides developed, in part, to take into consideration the state’s “Don’t Say Gay” laws.The changes to the Hillsborough County Public Schools’ curriculum guides were made with Florida’s new laws prohibiting classroom discussion about sexual orientation or gender identity in mind. Other reasons included revised state standards and an effort to get students to read a wide variety of books for new state exams, the school district said in an emailed statement on Tuesday.Several Shakespeare plays use suggestive puns and innuendo, and it is implied that the protagonists have had premarital sex in “Romeo and Juliet.” Shakespeare’s books will be available for checkout at media centers at schools, said the district, which covers the Tampa area. “First and foremost, we have not excluded Shakespeare from our high school curriculum. Students will still have the physical books to read excerpts in class,” the statement said. “Curriculum guides are continually reviewed and refined throughout the year to align with state standards and current law.” The decision in Tampa is the latest fallout from laws passed by Florida’s Republican-controlled Legislature and championed by GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis over the past two years. In Lake County, outside Orlando, the school district reversed a decision, made in response to the legislation, to restrict access to a popular children’s book about a male penguin couple hatching a chick. The School Board of Lake County and Florida education officials last week asked a federal judge to toss out a First Amendment lawsuit that students and the authors of “And Tango Makes Three” filed in June. Their complaint challenged the restrictions and Florida’s new laws. The lawsuit is moot because age restrictions on “And Tango Makes Three” were lifted following a Florida Department of Education memo that said the new law applied only to classroom instruction and not school libraries, according to motions filed Friday by Florida education officials and school board members. “And Tango Makes Three” recounts the true story of two male penguins who were devoted to each other at the Central Park Zoo in New York. A zookeeper who saw them building a nest and trying to incubate an egg-shaped rock gave them an egg from a different penguin pair with two eggs after they were having difficulty hatching more than one egg at a time. The chick cared for by the male penguins was named Tango.
Florida’s drive to scrutinize what kids read is costing tens of thousands of dollars - — Florida school districts are spending tens of thousands of dollars to comply with a new state law that’s increased scrutiny — and removal — of books in K-12 school libraries. The new law requires all campuses to digitally chronicle each book shelved and available for students in classroom libraries. Yet many schools, tight on staff with thousands of books to inventory, are outsourcing the arduous work of making all books searchable on local websites to a third-party company. Those services are costing districts between $34,000 to $135,000 annually, according to contracts reviewed by POLITICO. “We very much so want our classrooms to be very full of those books, for students to have robust access and a variety of those,” Candace Allevato, director of secondary curriculum for Lee County Schools, said at a recent school board workshop. “But we need to go through the inventorying process first and ensure that all of the books are meeting new requirements.” Florida’s Republican-led Legislature this year expanded education transparency laws in the state by tightening scrutiny around books that could be considered pornographic, harmful to minors, or describe or depict sexual activity, requiring such texts to be pulled from shelves within five days and remain out of circulation for the duration of any challenge. At the same time, this policy, building on a 2022 law that opened the door to more local book objections, made school districts responsible for books brought to campuses by teachers for classroom libraries. These moves are part of the push by Florida conservatives, led by Gov. Ron DeSantis, to regulate what students are learning in schools, particularly surrounding race and gender identity. Earlier this year, the DeSantis administration sought to remove books with graphic content from schools, taking aim at specific titles such as “Gender Queer: A Memoir” by Maia Kobabe, which depicts sex acts. Yet the new law has caused confusion among many school districts and has led some to remove books such as Toni Morrison’s “Beloved” or a children’s book about two same-sex penguins. In another instance, a Miami-Dade K-8 school limited access to Amanda Gorman’s presidential inauguration poem, “The Hill We Climb,” after a parent made a complaint.
Florida schools ‘hijacked by the left’ turn to anti-climate cartoons - Wind and solar power pollute the Earth and make life miserable. Recent global and local heat records reflect natural temperature cycles. And people who champion those beliefs are fighting oppression. These are some of the themes of children’s videos produced by an influential conservative advocacy group. Now, the videos could soon be used in Florida’s classrooms. Florida’s Department of Education has approved the classroom use of material from the Prager University Foundation, which produces videos education experts say distort science, history, gender and other topics. And those researchers fear that the nation’s third-largest state has opened a door that will help spread the videos to classrooms in other states. Florida is the first state to allow PragerU materials in public schools, where teachers will have the option of showing the five- to 10-minute videos in their classrooms. PragerU CEO Marissa Streit says the videos will rebalance schools that have been “hijacked by the left.” “Young kids are being taught climate hysteria,” Streit said in an interview. “They’re hearing that the world is coming to an end, and we think that there needs to be a healthy balance. “The climate is always changing,” Streit added, repeating a climate-denial motto that rejects fossil fuel burning as the cause of continuing record-high temperatures. For now, Florida has approved using PragerU videos only in civics and government for younger children. Some PragerU climate denial videos are classified under non-climate categories, which could enable their use in Florida. Florida’s approval is alarming because children will watch the videos when they are at their most impressionable stage, in kindergarten through 5th grade, said Adrienne McCarthy, a researcher at Kansas State University who tracks PragerU. Extreme ideas are presented as common beliefs in many videos, she said. “They can take these right-wing, controversial ideas and cloak them in seemingly harmless and friendly rhetoric,” McCarthy said. “Then they create this kind of facade of normal conservative beliefs, and they use authoritative figures [in the videos] in order to convince the audience.” “It’s also targeted at the parents themselves, saying that if you want to be a good parent, you should be teaching your kids this,” McCarthy added.
‘Academic bomb in our community’: Black leaders decry Florida’s African American history standards – — Black elected officials, religious leaders, educators and community members railed against Florida’s controversial new standards for teaching African American history Thursday evening at a town hall in Miami that was supposed to feature the DeSantis administration’s top education official.Instead, Education Commissioner Manny Diaz Jr. chose not to attend the event after initially agreeing to appear, an absence that became a focal point for critics of Florida’s standards that drew national attention over requiring educators to instruct students that “slaves developed skills which, in some instances, could be applied for their personal benefit.”The panel, including state Sens. Shevrin “Shev” Jones (D-Miami Gardens) and Rosalind Osgood (D-Tamarac), spent more than two hours addressing Florida’s Black history standards and other education issues among 200 or so people, with particularly harsh words for Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and his education department.“Ron DeSantis knew that this was going on, Manny Diaz knew that this was going on,” Fedrick Ingram, secretary-treasurer with the American Federation of Teachers and a former state union leader, said at the event, going as far to call Diaz a “coward” for avoiding the meeting.“They know how important this is to the Black community, they know that they have thrown an academic bomb in our community — and they knew that they should have been here to face you.”Florida’s Black history standards, approved by the state Board of Education last month, drew wide condemnation and fed into the county’s politically polarized fight over how and what to teach children.State education officials tout the standards for teaching the “good, the bad and the ugly” about American history and slavery, yet the standards were met with fierce criticism from Florida’s largest teachers union and other groups, attention that quickly gained momentum nationally, spreading to some Black conservatives who also opposed.It also sparked a fight between Florida Republican Rep. Byron Donalds, a supporter of former President Donald Trump, and the DeSantis administration, which attacked the Black GOP congressman for disagreeing that African Americans benefitted from slavery and asserting the standards needed to be adjusted.
Uvalde shooter's cousin is arrested over making a school shooting threat, court records say (AP) — The teenage cousin of the gunman responsible for the deadly school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, has been arrested after his family told police he was trying to buy a gun and “do the same thing,” court records show.Police in San Antonio took Nathan James Cruz into custody Monday on charges of making threats to a public place and a family member. The 17-year-old cousin was being held in the Bexar County jail on a $160,000 bond Tuesday, jail records show. According to police and court records, Cruz is the cousin of Salvador Ramos, the 18-year-old Uvalde resident who authorities say fatally shot 19 students and two teachers at Robb Elementary School in 2022. Police waited more than an hour to confront and kill Ramos.
A Georgia teacher wants to overturn her firing for reading a book to students about gender identity (AP) — A Georgia public school teacher took the stand Thursday trying to reverse her firing after officials said she improperly read a book on gender fluidity to her fifth grade class.Katie Rinderle had been a teacher for 10 years when she got into trouble in March for reading the picture book “My Shadow Is Purple” at Due West Elementary School in suburban Atlanta’s Cobb County. The case has drawn wide attention as a test of what public school teachers can teach in class, how much a school system can control teachers and whether parents can veto instruction they dislike. It comes amid a nationwide conservative backlash to books and teaching about LGBTQ+ subjects in school.“This termination is unrelated to education,” Craig Goodmark, the lawyer defending Rinderle, argued Thursday. “It exists to create political scapegoats for the elected leadership of this district. Reading a children’s book to children is not against the law.”Officials in Cobb County, Georgia’s second-largest school district, argue Rinderle broke the school district’s rules against teaching on controversial subjects and fired her after parents complained.“Introducing the topic of gender identity and gender fluidity into a class of elementary grade students was inappropriate and violated the school district policies,” Sherry Culves, a lawyer for the school district argued Thursday.Rinderle countered that reading the book wasn’t wrong, testifying that she believed it “to be appropriate” and not a “sensitive topic.” She argued Thursday that the book carries a broader message for gifted students, talking “about their many interests and feeling that they should be able to choose any of their interests and explore all of their interests.”Cobb County adopted a rule barring teaching on controversial issues in 2022, after Georgia lawmakers earlier that year enacted laws barring the teaching of “divisive concepts” and creating a parents’ bill of rights. The divisive concepts law, although it addresses teaching on race, bars teachers from “espousing personal political beliefs.” The bill of rights guarantees that parents have “the right to direct the upbringing and the moral or religious training of his or her minor child.”
North Dakota lawmakers eye Minnesota free tuition program that threatens enrollment (AP) — North Dakota lawmakers and higher education leaders are beginning to chart a path for how to respond to neighboring Minnesota’s upcoming program that will offer income-based free tuition to thousands of students. Higher education leaders on Wednesday detailed the situation to an interim legislative panel. A state senator also presented a bill draft proposing a North Dakota program similar to Minnesota’s North Star Promise. North Star Promise takes effect in fall 2024. It will cover undergraduate tuition and fees at the state’s public post-secondary schools for Minnesota residents whose family income is under $80,000, after they have used other sources of financial aid. North Dakota higher education leaders are worried about losing Minnesota students. About 1,400 of them at five eastern North Dakota schools could be eligible for North Star Promise. Minnesotans make up nearly half the student body at North Dakota State University in Fargo, the No. 1 out-of-state choice for first-year Minnesota students.Legislative staff and higher education officials will work on potential options in response to North Star Promise, said Republican state Rep. Mark Sanford, who chairs the Legislature’s interim Higher Education Committee. Tuition cost is “certainly not the only element” Minnesota students consider in where to go to college, he said. Quality and availability of programs “are important parts of this, too,” Sanford said Thursday. Admissions offices already are recruiting 2024 and 2025 high school graduates. Marketing “the overall quality” of North Dakota programs to Minnesotans will be key, said North Dakota University System Chancellor Mark Hagerott. He said he’s confident current Minnesota students will stick with North Dakota.
Abortion rights won big in Ohio. Here’s why it wasn’t particularly close. - Ohioans on Tuesday soundly defeated a proposal that would have made it more difficult to alter the state’s Constitution.The move is a lightning-rod moment for abortion rights, even if the issue wasn’t directly on the ballot. After the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision last year, the issue motivated voters to storm the polls. But this measure, which didn’t directly take on abortion, was a closely watched measure of if the issue still resonates with voters.Voters had the answer. They overwhelmingly rejected Issue 1, an amendment that would have raised the threshold to pass a constitutional amendment from a simple majority to 60 percent, as well as complicate the process to bring citizen-initiated ballot measures to voters in the first place. Though it had profound implications for a number of issues, it was widely seen in the state as a way to thwart November’s measure that would enshrine abortion rights in the state’s Constitution.The measure’s defeat now gives abortion-rights supporters a clearer path to victory. Opponents of Issue 1 view the victory as the first battle on abortion in the coming cycle, when the issue will be a factor in competitive Senate and House races that could help determine who controls Congress — as well as a number of direct ballot measures in swing states in the works. But opponents also frame their victory as one that protects the power of the simple majority. “I think sometimes, a lot of these fights get viewed in a single entity and the state gets viewed in a single moment as its value to the presidential battleground map,” said Ohio Democratic Party Chair Liz Walters. “And I get that, but democracy matters everywhere,” pointing to Arkansas and South Dakota, where voters similarly rejected efforts to implement a supermajority requirement for ballot initiatives. Here are three takeaways from Tuesday’s election in Ohio: Tuesday’s election proved that the state-by-state battle over abortion rights is still a serious motivator to get voters to the polls — even when abortion isn’t directly on the ballot. Ohio Republicans moved in January to cancel most August electionsbecause they were low turnout affairs that voters rarely paid attention to. Just over 8 percent of voters turned up in an August 2022 state legislative primary election, for example. So when the GOP-controlled legislature pulled an about face months later by scheduling Issue 1 on the August ballot, abortion rights supporters cried foul, saying it was an attempt to kneecap them without voters noticing. But voters turned up in droves anyway. More than 600,000 people voted early — a number that could still rise from late-arriving mail ballots — which outpaced the entirety of the turnout for that 2022 August election. It was also more than twice the number of people who voted early in the May 2022 primaries, which featured competitive Senate or gubernatorial contests.
America’s white majority is aging out --Generation Z will be the last generation of Americans with a white majority, according to census data. The nation’s so-called majority minority arrived with Generation Alpha, those born since about 2010. Barely two decades from now, around 2045, non-Hispanic white people will fall below half as a share of the overall U.S. population. Those conclusions, and the numbers behind them, seem simple enough. Yet, some scholars contend that the numbers are wrong, or at least misleading, and that the looming ascent of a majority-minority America is a myth. America’s white majority, and its numbered days, is a lightning-rod topic, given the nation’s history of slavery and enduring patterns of discrimination against minorities and immigrants. Demographers and economists celebrate the nation’s growing diversity as vital to a prosperous future. Other voices vilify racial change as a threat to the nation’s white heritage. “Race is the most complicated variable in the census, and it’s the one that draws people like moths to the flame,” said Dowell Myers, a professor of policy, planning and demography at the University of Southern California. Generational data from the 2020 census shows the upward march of racial diversity by age group. Non-Hispanic white people make up 77 percent of the over age 75 population, 67 percent of the age 55-64 population, 55 percent of the 35-44 cohort, and barely half of the 18-24 age group. America’s children are only 47 percent non-Hispanic white, according to an analysis released this week by William Frey, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. In the decades to come, that wave of diversity will wash across the generations, yielding an America with no single racial group that can claim a numerical majority.
Hospitalizations in Kansas and nationwide signal ‘summer surge’ of COVID-19 - — A national summer uptick in COVID-19 cases has arrived, but Kansas physicians are still waiting to see if cases in the state follow national trends.Across the U.S., hospitalizations have been on the rise since the beginning of July, the first increase seen this year, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. The organization reported 8,035 new hospital admissions for the week ending July 22, marking a 12.1% increase compared to the week prior. The CDC has stopped tracking cases of infection, so hospitalizations are now the primary indicator of COVID-19 spread.For the past three years, summer surges in COVID-19 have happened because of increased movement and travel. While the increase in cases isn’t near the levels seen during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, state physicians recommend taking summer booster shots.The University of Kansas Health System reported treating 15 COVID-19 patients this week. Dana Hawkinson, director of infection prevention and control at the system, said it may be too soon to say there was an overall “summer surge” in Kansas. “Whatever community you’re living in may be different than the next community over, or something that is further away from you, so I think we just need to wait about that, as far as the overall numbers,” Hawkinson said during a Friday news briefing.New Kansas COVID-19 cases haven’t been widely documented since the end of the federal COVID-19 emergency declaration in May, when the state stopped updating statistics, but the vaccination rate is still tracked on a monthly basis.CDC data show 65.6% of Kansans, including 76.3% of adults, have completed a primary vaccination series for COVID-19. And 15.9% of Kansans, including 19.6% of adults, have received a booster shot.
Uptick in D-FW COVID hospitalizations as cases increase nationally --COVID-19 hospitalizations in North Texas have more than doubled in the last month, according to Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council data, mirroring case trends nationally as the back-to-school season looms.Dallas region hospitals reported 196 patients hospitalized with the virus on Aug. 3, up from 91 hospitalizations on July 3. In mid-July, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported a small uptick in cases nationally for the first time since January.Public health experts say that, while they’re cautiously eyeing the local increase in hospitalizations, people shouldn’t panic. Just over a year ago, North Texas health systems saw more than 700 COVID-19 hospitalizations, causing the CDC to designate Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton counties as areas with high community spread of the virus.It’s a gradual increase, but notable,” said UT Southwestern infectious disease expert Dr. Trish Perl.Tracking COVID’s spread is increasingly difficult as people are more likely to test at home, if they test at all. Wastewater testing, which allows researchers to measure viral loads without relying on people to report positive tests, has shown slight COVID-19 increases in Dallas County recently, said Dr. Philip Huang, Health and Human Services director.Hospitalizations from the disease also offer epidemiologists a more consistent data source, although even those could be underreported, Perl said. It can also be difficult for hospitals to distinguish between patients who are hospitalized because of COVID-19 and those who are hospitalized for other conditions and happen to test positive for the highly contagious virus. The XBB and XBB.1.5 subvariants make up the majority of COVID-19 cases in the state as of July 15, according to Texas Department of State Health Services data. The strains are cousins of the omicron variant, which wreaked havoc on North Texas hospitals for months. At its peak, the omicron surge led to more than 4,000 hospitalizations. The current strains appear much less severe than the original omicron variant, and most people’s immune systems can handle the virus, especially if they’re vaccinated. People with compromised immune systems are at higher risk for severe complications. “People with underlying health issues need to be diligent about their safety,”
COVID-19 hospitalizations in the US are on the rise again, but not like before --Here we go again: COVID-19 hospital admissions have inched upward in the United States since early July in a small-scale echo of the three previous summers.With an updated vaccine still months away, this summer bump in new hospitalizations might be concerning, but the number of patients is far lower than before. A look at what we know:For the week ending July 29, COVID-19 hospital admissions were at 9,056. That’s an increase of about 12% from the previous week.But it’s a far cry from past peaks, like the 44,000 weekly hospital admissions in early January, the nearly 45,000 in late July 2022, or the 150,000 admissions during the omicron surge of January 2022.“It is ticking up a little bit, but it’s not something that we need to raise any alarm bells over,” said Dr. David Dowdy, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.It’s likely that infections are rising too, but the data is scant. Federal authorities ended the public health emergency in May, so the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and many states no longer track the number of positive test results.
US COVID tracking shows another slight rise, increasing EG.5 proportion - With levels still very low, some indicators federal health officials use to track COVID-19 activity, such as hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits showed more small rises, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).Meanwhile, in its latest variant proportion update, the EG.5.1 Omicron subvariant, a descendant of XBB.1.9.2, continues its steady rise. Hospitalizations—one of the main markers—were up 12.1% compared to a week ago. However, the CDC notes that hospital admissions for COVID are currently low for more than 99% of the country. Deaths from COVID, another key indicator, remained level, with the virus linked to only 1% of deaths in the nation for the week ending Jul 29. Other early indicators of increasing virus activity continue to slowly rise. ED visits rose 21.8% compared to a week ago, but as a whole, COVID infections make up only 1% of all ED visits. Increases were more marked in a handful of southeastern states, with Mississippi and Alabama reporting substantial increases from a week ago, and Louisiana and Florida reporting moderate increases.Test positivity, another early marker, rose 1.3% compared to a week ago and is at 8.9% nationally. However, test positivity was higher in certain parts of the country, including the south-central states, southeastern states, and a portion of the northeast.Wastewater tracking also reflects more rises, with all regions seeing a consistent rise with projected infections daily infections back to medium levels compared to the earlier Omicron months, according to J.P. Weiland, an infectious disease modeler said on Twitter on Aug 3 in an analysis of Biobot wastewater data.Meanwhile, variant proportions continue to shift, with EG.5.1 showing another steady rise, now at an estimated 17.3% of sequences, up from 11.9% in the CDC's projections 2 weeks ago. EG.5.1 has now nudged ahead of XBB.1.16. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently added EG.5 as a variant under monitoring, though it said there's no evidence that it is fueling any rises in cases or deaths or causing infections that are more severe.Other subvariants showing rising proportions in the United States include FL.1.5.1, which is at 8.6%, and XBB.1.16.6, at 7.7%.Eric Topol, MD, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, said yesterday on his "Ground Truths" Substack blog that the EG.5.1 variant has shown a near doubling over the past few weeks, reflecting a significant growth advantage over XBB variant precursors. He pointed to new analysis that EG.5.1 rises are notable in the United Kingdom, Europe, and Asia, as well.So far, it's not clear if the rise in EG.5.1 is contributing to upward trends in the United States and when the rise will peak, Topol said, noting that the rise is noteworthy and concerning, but not to the level of the Omicron surge.Topol pointed to concerns about a spike mutation in EG.5.1 and another variant that has a key spike mutation, F456L, that is part of mutation combination that can bind more tightly to ACE2, the cell receptor for the virus. He also referenced concerns scientists have that the "Flip" mutation combination could lead to a further reduction in neutralizing antibodies. So far, the prevalence of viruses that have the Flip combination is low globally, though Spain and Brazil are among the countries already seeing rises.The nation isn't ready for EG.5.1 or impacts from viruses that have the Flip combination, Topol emphasized, citing concerns that the updated COVID vaccines won't be available until October.
Coronavirus special update: the annual summer wave has arrived -- As I wrote at the beginning of this year, I would only post Coronavirus updates if there appeared to be something significant happening. And there is. There is a completely new alphabet soup of XBB subvariants that are competing with one another, and one of them, EG.5.1, has been surging in a number of countries worldwide and is now the fastest growing subvariant in the US as well: Since the CDC and most States have stopped reporting, our only reasonably reliable metric for infections is Biobot’s waste surveillance, which shows that for the fourth summer in a row, from an all-time low in late June, particles in wastewater have more than doubled, to levels last seen back in April:The increase is occurring across all four US Census regions:Hospitalizations started increasing during the week of July 15, and are now about 50% higher than their recent nadir, although they are still lower than 10,000, which was their previous low in summer 2021 and spring 2022:Deaths probably started rising from their all-time weekly low under 500 during the same week, although reporting is not final yet: It’s too soon to tell how high the peak of this summer save will be, or when it will take place. But it is clear now that we are having yet another summer wave, aided no doubt not just be summer get-togethers, but also be an increase in indoor activities and the absence of any mitigation measures whatsoever. And also the facts that resistance due to prior infections and/or vaccinations are likely waning, and the next booster won’t be available until (apparently) sometime this autumn.
‘Eris’ Covid-19 variant dominant in U.S.: symptoms, background, spread -A fast-spreading new subvariant of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 — nicknamed “Eris” by health watchers but formally known as EG.5 — recently became the most prevalent strain in the country, according to recent official estimates, though it does not appear to cause significant illness or pose immediate danger.According to a CDC estimate from Saturday, the EG.5 variant makes up approximately 17 percent of all Covid cases in the U.S., making it the most dominant strain of the disease. That number is an increase from the roughly 12 percent share of EG.5-variant cases among all strains in a July 22 calculation. The variant has also been reported in several countries. The dangers from Covid have sharply declined with vaccinations, but new variants have continued to arise. The EG.5 variant exists under the Omicron family of strains that began circulating in late 2021 and has since birthed several mutations. Medical experts have said that EG.5 does not seem to cause more severe illness than previous strains of the coronavirus, and no figures from the White House or Capitol Hill have issued strong statements on the matter.“At this time, there is no evidence indicating EG.5 is able to spread more easily, and currently available treatments and vaccines are expected to continue to be effective against this variant,” a CDC spokesperson told POLITICO.The World Health Organization has begun tracking EG.5, but has not labeled it as a variant of interest or concern. In comparison, the XBB.1.5 strain, which previously dominated transmission in the U.S., is listed as a variant of interest. Globally, hospitalizations from Covid have generally declined since the beginning of the year. Although hospitalizations from the coronavirus have risen slightly over the summer in the U.S., the Biden administration has continued to express optimism about beating the pandemic. It has ended the public health emergency, and the White House Covid czar left earlier this summer. The symptoms from the EG.5 variant are no different from previous variants: typical cold ailments such as sore throat, runny nose, congestion, cough and fever. Since June, health officials and drug manufacturers have worked toward the development of shots that should also address the EG.5 subvariant, given that it exists in the Omicron family.The public should be able to start receiving the shots starting in the fall.
US COVID markers up slightly again - The two main indicators that federal health officials use to track COVID-19 activity—hospitalizations and deaths—both registered small rises this week, as did other indicators of virus activity, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Starting from very low levels, hospitalizations for COVID rose 12.5% this week compared to last week. Though levels have now risen for the fifth straight week, COVID admissions still make up a small percentage of all hospitalizationsOn the CDC's COVID-19 hospitalization map, only a few counties saw medium rates of COVID admissions. None were listed as high. The CDC’s guidance for individual and community actions are tied to hospital admission levels for the virus, which are currently low for 99% of the country. For the first time this summer, deaths rose and were up 10% from the previous week. COVID-related fatalities made up only 1.1% of the nation's deaths.The metrics the CDC uses as early indicators of increasing virus activity also reflected small rises. Emergency department (ED) visits for COVID were up 21.4% compared to the previous week, with evaluation for COVID making up just 1.2% of all ED visits. However, levels were a bit higher in south and southeastern states.Test positivity rose 1.6% compared to the week before, and is at 10.6% nationally. Levels were higher in Texas and surrounding states, followed by the southeast, southwest, and northwest regions.CDC wastewater tracking reflects a general upward trend, with few sites reporting large increases. Biobot wastewater tracking suggests gradually rising levels in all regions of the country, with the Southeast and Northeast reporting the highest levels.In other CDC tracking, COVID cases in nursing home residents have been slowly rising since the middle of July, according to data from the National Healthcare Safety Network. In the most recent reporting week, there were 4.7 cases among 1,000 resident-weeks. Deaths, however, don't appear to be rising.Following several weeks of declining or stable activity across European countries, case notification rates are increasing, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said today in its weekly update, though it urged caution in interpreting trends due to fewer countries reporting their data and delayed reporting over the summer holidays.Transmission, though, appears to be increasing from low levels in about half of reporting countries. Half of countries that reported data by age noted increases in people ages 65 and older. Some countries are reporting rises in clinic visits for respiratory symptoms and higher test positivity.Of 11 countries that reported hospital or intensive care unit (ICU) admission data, only two reported an increasing trend for one of the indicators. Four of 15 countries reported increasing death rates in at least one age group.Of 11 countries reporting adequate sequencing data for the last half of July, XBB.1.5 made up an estimated 94.8% of samples.
Opinion | For millions like me with long covid, the pandemic isn’t over - Madeline Miller - In 2019, I was in high gear. I had two young children, a busy social life, a book tour and a novel in progress. I spent my days racing between airports, juggling to-do lists and child care. Yes, I felt tired, but I come from a family of high-energy women. I was proud to be keeping the sacred flame of Productivity burning. Then I got covid. I didn’t know it was covid at the time. This was early February 2020, before the government was acknowledging SARS-CoV-2’s spread in the United States. In the weeks after infection, my body went haywire. My ears rang. My heart would start galloping at random times. I developed violent new food allergies overnight. When I walked upstairs, I gasped alarmingly. I reached out to doctors. One told me I was “deconditioned” and needed to exercise more. But my usual jog left me doubled over, and when I tried to lift weights, I ended up in the ER with chest pains and tachycardia. My tests were normal, which alarmed me further. How could they be normal? Every morning, I woke breathless, leaden, utterly depleted. Worst of all, I couldn’t concentrate enough to compose sentences. Writing had been my haven since I was 6. Now, it was my family’s livelihood. I kept looking through my pre-covid novel drafts, desperately trying to prod my sticky, limp brain forward. But I was too tired to answer email, let alone grapple with my book. Some long-covid patients have brain struggles for at least two years When people asked how I was, I gave an airy answer. Inside, I was in a cold sweat. My whole future was dropping away. Looking at old photos, I was overwhelmed with grief and bitterness. I didn’t recognize myself. On my best days, I was 30 percent of that person. I turned to the internet and discovered others with similar experiences. In fact, my symptoms were textbook — a textbook being written in real time by “first wavers” like me, comparing notes and giving our condition a name: long covid. In those communities, everyone had stories like mine: life-altering symptoms, demoralizing doctor visits, loss of jobs, loss of identity. The virus can produce a bewildering buffet of long-term conditions, including cognitive impairment and cardiac failure, tinnitus, loss of taste, immune dysfunction, migraines and stroke, any one of which could tank quality of life. What is long covid? For the first time, a new study defines it. For me, one of the worst was post-exertional malaise (PEM), a Victorian-sounding name for a very real and debilitating condition in which exertion causes your body to crash. In my new post-covid life, exertion could include washing dishes, carrying my children, even just talking with too much animation. Whenever I exceeded my invisible allowance, I would pay for it with hours, or days, of migraines and misery. Few wanted to listen. During the omicron wave, politicians tweeted about how quickly they’d recovered. I was glad for everyone who was fine, but a nasty implication hovered over those of us who weren’t: What’s your problem? Friends who did struggle often seemed embarrassed by their symptoms.I’m just tired. My memory’s never been good. I gave them the resources I had, but there were few to give. There is no cure for long covid. Two of my friends went on to have strokes. A third developed diabetes, a fourth dementia. One died.
Brain fog and other long COVID symptoms affect millions. New treatment studies bring hope (AP) — The National Institutes of Health is beginning a handful of studies to test possible treatments for long COVID, an anxiously awaited step in U.S. efforts against the mysterious condition that afflicts millions.Monday’s announcement from the NIH’s $1.15 billion RECOVER project comes amid frustration from patients who’ve struggled for months or even years with sometimes-disabling health problems — with no proven treatments and only a smattering of rigorous studies to test potential ones.“This is a year or two late and smaller in scope than one would hope but nevertheless it’s a step in the right direction,” said Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly of Washington University in St. Louis, who isn’t involved with NIH’s project but whose own research highlighted long COVID’s toll. Getting answers is critical, he added, because “there’s a lot of people out there exploiting patients’ vulnerability” with unproven therapies.Scientists don’t yet know what causes long COVID, the catchall term for about 200 widely varying symptoms. Between 10% and 30% of people are estimated to have experienced some form of long COVID after recovering from a coronavirus infection, a risk that has dropped somewhat since early in the pandemic.“If I get 10 people, I get 10 answers of what long COVID really is,” U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra said.That’s why so far the RECOVER initiative has tracked 24,000 patients in observational studies to help define the most common and burdensome symptoms — findings that now are shaping multipronged treatment trials. The first two will look at:
- — Whether taking up to 25 days of Pfizer’s antiviral drug Paxlovid could ease long COVID, because of a theory that some live coronavirus, or its remnants, may hide in the body and trigger the disorder. Normally Paxlovid is used when people first get COVID-19 and for just five days.
- — Treatments for “brain fog” and other cognitive problems. They include Posit Science Corp.’s BrainHQ cognitive training program, another called PASC-Cognitive Recovery by New York City’s Mount Sinai Health System, and a Soterix Medical device that electrically stimulates brain circuits.
Two additional studies will open in the coming months. One will test treatments for sleep problems. The other will target problems with the autonomic nervous system — which controls unconscious functions like breathing and heartbeat — including the disorder called POTS.A more controversial study of exercise intolerance and fatigue also is planned, with NIH seeking input from some patient groups worried that exercise may do more harm than good for certain long COVID sufferers.
SARS-CoV-2 can damage mitochondrion in heart, other organs, study finds The COVID-19 International Research Team (COV-IRT) and the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP) report that they have identified abnormal mitochondrial function in the heart, kidneys, and liver after SARS-CoV-2 infection, which leads to long-term damage and may help explain long COVID. Mitochondria are the so-called "powerhouses" of cells, and the researchers noted that previous studies have shown that SARS-CoV-2 proteins can bind to mitochondrial proteins in host cells, possibly leading to dysregulation. The team analyzed mitochondrial gene expression in tissues from COVID-19 patients' nose and throat, along with tissues from deceased patients and hamsters and mice. The results were published today in Science Translational Medicine. "The tissue samples from human patients allowed us to look at how mitochondrial gene expression was affected at the onset and end of disease progression, while animal models allowed us to fill in the blanks and look at the progression of gene expression differences over time," first author Joseph Guarnieri, PhD, a postdoctoral research at CHOP, said in a hospital news release. The tissue samples from human patients allowed us to look at how mitochondrial gene expression was affected at the onset and end of disease progression, while animal models allowed us to fill in the blanks and look at the progression of gene expression differences over time. In autopsy tissue, mitochondrial gene expression had recovered in the lungs, but not in the heart, kidneys, and liver. The rodent tissue and measurement of the time of peak viral load in the lungs showed that mitochondrial gene expression was suppressed in the cerebellum, even though SARS-CoV-2 wasn't found in the brain. The cerebellum coordinates and regulates muscle activity. Other animal models showed signs of recovery of mitochondrial function in the lungs during the mid-phase of COVID-19 infection. Co-senior author Douglas Wallace, PhD, of CHOP, said that the study offers strong evidence that COVID-19 is a systemic disease that affects multiple organs rather than strictly an upper respiratory illness. "The continued dysfunction we observed in organs other than the lungs suggests that mitochondrial dysfunction could be causing long-term damage to the internal organs of these patients," he said in the release.
Dialysis patients had higher rates of COVID infection, death than others in 2021 and 2022 -- Patients who received maintenance dialysis in 2021 and 2022 had higher rates of COVID-19 infection and death than the rest of the US population during the SARS-CoV-2 Delta and early Omicron variant waves, although the difference was lessened by vaccination, according to a study led by researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).For the study, published today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, the investigators analyzed weekly COVID-19 case and death data on dialysis patients from the CDC's National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) from June 30, 2021, to September 27, 2022.During the COVID-19 public health emergency, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services implemented emergency requirements through the End-stage Renal Disease Network, mandating the reporting of infections, deaths, and vaccination status among dialysis facility patients and staff."Persons receiving maintenance dialysis are at increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection and its severe outcomes, including death," the study authors wrote.During the study period, 7,848 dialysis facilities reported weekly COVID-19 cases and related deaths among 518,798 patients to NHSN. The infection rate among maintenance dialysis recipients was 30.5 per 10,000 patient-weeks (39.6 among unvaccinated patients and 27.2 among patients who had completed a primary COVID-19 vaccination series). The death rate was 1.7 per 10,000 patient-weeks.COVID-19 and death rates varied by age-group, and the differences were most apparent in the first Omicron wave. The infection rate in the non-dialysis population was 20.7 per 10,000 population-weeks during Delta, 43.6 per 10,000 population-weeks during the first Omicron wave, and 17.1 per 10,000 population-weeks during the second Omicron wave.In the non-dialysis population, COVID-19 death rates were 0.2 per 10,000 population-weeks amid Delta, 0.3per 10,000 population-weeks during the first Omicron wave, and 0.1 per 10,000 population-weeks during the second Omicron wave. Case and death rates among dialysis patients followed similar patterns as those in the overall population over time."Implementing recommended infection control measures in dialysis facilities and ensuring patients and staff members are up to date with recommended COVID-19 vaccination is critical to limiting COVID-19–associated morbidity and mortality," the researchers wrote.
Study: Delirium incidence rose among geriatric patients during pandemic -A 5-year cross-sectional study published yesterday in JAMA Network Open shows the absolute rates of delirium among hospitalized older adults increased from 35.9 per 1,000 admitted population during the years immediately preceding the pandemic, to 41.5 per 1,000 admitted population throughout the first 2 years of the pandemic.As many as 30% of hospitalized elderly adults experience delirium, defined by confusion, agitation, and problems with awareness. If untreated or unrecognized, delirium raises the risk of developing dementia and significant mental health issues. In the present study, researchers mined databases to measure rates of delirium and related medication prescriptions (antipsychotics and minor tranquilizers) among adults ages 66 years or older hospitalized before and during the COVID-19 pandemic (January 1, 2017, to March 31, 2022) in Ontario, Canada. In total the study included 1,047,680 older adults with 2,128,411 hospital admissions.For all hospitalizations, the median length of stay was 5 days, and 6.3% of patients were discharged to an inpatient rehabilitation facility.The observed rates of delirium during the first 2 years of the pandemic were then compared to projected rates based on modeling from 3 years before pandemic onset."The onset, recognition, and management of delirium may have been affected by overwhelmed hospital capacity, staff shortages, isolation procedures, and reduced contact with friends and family due to visitor restrictions," the authors said.The adjusted rate ratio (ARR) of delirium during the pandemic compared with the projected rate was 1.15 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11 to 1.19).
Older discharged COVID patients at twice the risk of death as older flu patients, study finds Older adults who are hospitalized for COVID-19 have double the rate of death upon discharge as older adults hospitalized for influenza-related complications, according to a new study inThe BMJ.The study was conducted by researchers at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC) in Boston using national Medicare data to characterize the long-term risk of death and hospital readmission after being hospitalized with COVID-19 among beneficiaries 65 years and older.The researchers compared outcomes of 883,394 Medicare beneficiaries admitted and subsequently discharged from the hospital with COVID-19 from March 2020 to August 2022, with outcomes of 56,409 Medicare beneficiaries admitted and discharged from the hospital for flu from March 2018 to August 2019. The main outcome was all-cause death within 180 days of discharge. Despite having lower rates of comorbidities, the patients with COVID-19 had a higher risk of dying at 30 days post-hospitalization than flu patients (10.9% vs 3.9%). The higher risk of death rate persisted at 90 day (15.5% vs 7.1%), and at 180 days (19.1% vs 10.5%). "The 30 day risk of death after hospital admission with COVID-19 peaked at 17.9% on 1 May 2020 but decreased to 7.2% by the end of the study period," the authors wrote. "Although this finding may be due to differences in the biology of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses, it may also reflect differences in baseline immunity between cohorts, either from previous infection or from vaccination, though we were unable to evaluate the underlying mechanism in this study." Patients with COVID-19 also saw a sixfold higher rate of in-hospital deaths; 16.6% of Medicare enrollees died while hospitalized for COVID-19, compared with just 2.7% of those hospitalized for flu. In addition, the COVID-19 group had longer hospital stays than the flu group (8.6 vs 5.3 days).
WHO issues standing recommendations for COVID, details Omicron EG.5 variant risk --In a pair of new developments today, the World Health Organization (WHO) released standing recommendations for battling COVID-19 and released a risk assessment for the EG.5 Omicron variant, elevating it to a variant of interest (VOI) and noting that may drive a rise in cases and become dominant.The new standing recommendations released today replace the temporary recommendations the WHO made in May, when Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, declared the end of the public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). The new recommendations were made by a review committee and were accepted by Tedros today. The temporary recommendations expired at the beginning of August.At a media briefing today, Tedros said the risk of severe disease and death are vastly lower than a year ago due to increasing population immunity from vaccination or infection, along with early diagnosis and better clinical care.However, he said the WHO still assesses the threat from COVID as high. "The virus continues to circulate in all countries, it continues to kill and it continues to change," he said.The standing recommendations cover seven main areas and reinforce the guidance the group released in May, Tedros said. For example, the guidance urges countries to update their COVID plans, sustain and share surveillance, vaccinate the most at-risk groups, report data to the WHO, collaborate on research, deliver optimal clinical care, and provide equitable access to vaccines, testing, and treatment.Tedros said the new recommendations are important, given those who have lost loved ones, people who remain at increased risk of severe disease or death, and long-COVID patients. "WHO will not forget about COVID-19, and nor can governments," he said. "Implementing these recommendations will not only help to protect against COVID-19, it will also help countries to prevent and respond to other diseases."In a related development today, the WHO's Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution today released its initial risk assessment on EG.5, which is currently the fastest growing variant in the Americas, Europe, and Western Pacific regions. The WHO had designated it as a variant under monitoring (VUM) on July 19 and today elevated it to a VOI alongside XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.16. EG.5 carries an additional F456L mutation in the spike protein, compared to its parent XBB.1.9.2 and XBB.1.5 subvariants. The group noted that EG.5.1 has an additional spike mutation Q52H and represents 88% of available EG.5 sequences.First reported in mid-February, the EG.5 proportions showed a notable rise between mid-June and mid-July, when they made up an estimated 17.4% of viruses.The group said the overall public health risk is low, similar to the other VOIs, but it may spread globally and contributed to rising cases. "Several countries with rising EG.5 prevalence have seen increases in cases and hospitalizations, although at present there is no evidence of an increase in disease severity directly associated with EG.5," they said. With high confidence based on the evidence, they assessed the growth advantage risk as moderate.For antibody escape, they put the risk at moderate, with low confidence based on work from one lab that used pseudotyped viruses. "Additional laboratory studies would be needed to further assess the risk of antibody escape," they wrote.
The Virus is Learning New Tricks and We Humans Keep Falling Behind - Eric Topol - This week the CDC genomic surveillance showed continued rise of the EG.5.1 variant with near doubling over the past couple of weeks, showing significant growth advantage compared to its prevailing XBB variant precursors (such as XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16, XBB.1.9) The rise of EG.5.1 is not at all confined to the United States. It’s notable throughout the UK, Europe, and Asia. The graphs below, posted by Mike Honey , show its takeoff well. In fact, the proportion of new sequences with the key spike mutation seen in EG.5 (and FL.5.1)—F456L—is over 35% worldwide. Wastewater surveillance (biobot.io) shows a new wave in the United States and this graph by JP Weiland estimates the number of cases that translates to, and to date this has been accompanied by a >10% rise in Covid hospitalizations, and no rise (yet) in deaths. It should be noted that the tracking of hospitalizations and deaths is far from optimal, forcing us to rely chiefly on wastewater levels to get a handle on what is going on. There’s nothing to connect the dots between EG.5.1 and this wave, which, while noteworthy and concerning, is not anything like Omicron-it’s <10%. We don’t know when this wave will peak, and whether the rise of EG.5.1 is contributing. It certainly does not look benign. Don’t ever forget the toll of Long Covid that results from such waves.EG.5.1 was just profiled in the lab by Yunlong Cao’s lab, the group that has been out in front throughout the pandemic for accurately and rapidly assessing new variants and their functional significance. This variant with F456L, and another we’ll be discussing shortly (L455F), are very likely an outgrowth of escape mutations from wide use of monoclonal antibodies and were predicted to occur many months ago.The impact of EG.5.1 for neutralizing antibodies is seen below for individuals with both BA.5 and an XBB (1.5 or 1.16) infections. You can see the drop of neutralizing antibody levels (Plasma NT50) when the F456L mutation is added to XBB.1.5 and for EG.5.1 which carries this mutation. So the EG.5.1 variant poses a challenge to our humoral (antibody) immune response. There are 2 adjacent mutations in the spike 455 and 456 positions that are showing the virus has learned a new trick. It’s being called a FLip because both mutations are between F and L: one L to F, the other F to L, such that it really is deserving of the name!, thanks to Raj Rajnarayanan for coming up with it). Together, but not alone, the spike binds more avidly to ACE2, the cell receptor for the virus (the lower the Y-axis, -logKd the tighter the binding). And, as seen above in the neutralizing antibody graph, this FLip combo mutation also leads to further reduction of neutralizing antibodies. This certainly suggests this evolution of the virus will be more troubling than EG.5.1 and we can expect it to show further growth advantage in the weeks ahead. At present, it is at low levels globally (~2%), but there are places where the FLip is taking off, such as Brazil and Spain, as shown below from Mike Honey’s graph. Here is Daniele Focosi’s newly updated XBB Convergence map to show the evolution of the FLip combo mutation at the far right, top, with EG.5.1 adding the L455F mutation. As you can see, there is very close alignment between XBB.1.5 and EG.5.1 except for 2 new mutations in the latter: F456L and Q52H. Accordingly, the new Covid booster should be very effective vs severe Covid. On the other hand, the BA.5 spike has more than 15 different mutations than either of the newer variants, which not only reflect further evolution of the virus, but also how poorly aligned that bivalent BA.5 booster is with the virus circulating now. Even with FLip gaining traction, we’d be far better off with the new XBB.1.5 monovalent booster than what we have now.The new Covid booster was expected in late August or early September, but recently the new CDC director, Mandy Cohen said on NPR it may not be available until October. That’s an unacceptably long delay from the initial projection and expectations, especially with what has been happening with the virus’s evolution. No less the timing that schools are starting soon. Too many high-risk people, because of being immunocompromised or of advanced age, will unnecessarily be vulnerable to hospitalizations or deaths.To be clear, we are not looking at an “Omicron event” now, whereby there will be a dramatic increase in transmission and adverse outcomes due to a boatload of new mutations. But these changes in the spike of the virus (and other components not reviewed here, such as in the ORF1a, ORF1b, the nucleocapsid, etc) are a signal that there’s more to come with SARS-CoV-2 and we have a bad track record of always lagging behind. And as I previously reviewed, we have an estimated 20% chance of having another Omicron event in the next couple of years—one that would certainly challenge prior immunity, be it by vaccinations, infections, or their combination.The $5 billion Project NextGen is supposed to be accelerating nasal vaccines, better variant-proof universal vaccines, and monoclonal antibodies that work, but there’s no sign of life yet for this initiative.With all the complacency about Covid, it’s no wonder we keep trailing its progression. We need to get serious about getting the new XBB.1.5 boosters out ASAP, and getting Project NextGen in high gear. The “pandemic is over” culture is the last thing we need to confront the pressure we’ve put on the virus to find new ways to get us—to find repeat and new hosts—and evade our prior immunity. The FLip double whammy exploits 2 ways at once with tighter binding to the receptor and incremental immune evasion. Whatever tricks beyond FLip the virus will find are not known, but what is incontrovertible is that SARS-CoV-2 will unfortunately be with us for many, many years to come. Yet we’re not using our big advantage—human intelligence—to get ahead of it. Even just getting an updated, monovalent, well aligned (XBB.1.5) booster out there in a timely manner, which is not a monumental achievement, by any means. We can and must do better than this…..
Remdesivir tied to lower death rates in COVID hospital patients with weakened immune systems --A study published yesterday in Clinical Infectious Diseases reveals that use of the antiviral drug remdesivir was tied to lower all-cause death rates among hospitalized COVID-19 patients with weakened immune systems throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pre-Delta, Delta, and Omicron variant periods.A team led by researchers at remdesivir developer Gilead Sciences analyzed data from the US PINC AI Healthcare Database on hospitalized adult COVID-19 patients with impaired immune systems from December 2020 to April 2022. A total of 14,169 remdesivir patients who started intravenous remdesivir within 2 days of hospitalization were matched with 5,341 non-remdesivir patients. Another 5,015 remdesivir patients were not matched.In the matched group, 59% of patients were 65 years or older, 40% did not require supplemental oxygen, 39% required low-flow oxygen, 19% required high-flow oxygen, and 2% required invasive mechanical ventilation/extracorporeal membrane oxygenation at baseline. The median length of remdesivir therapy was 5 days, and 68.2% and 1.8% of patients completed the full 5-day and 10-day course, respectively. Overall, 11.1% and 17.7% of remdesivir patients died within 14 and 28 days, respectively, compared with 15.4% and 22.4% of those who didn't receive the drug. Remdesivir was linked to lower death rates at 14 days (hazard ratio [HR], 0.70) and 28 days (HR, 0.75). The survival benefit remained significant throughout periods dominated by the pre-Delta, Delta, and Omicron variants.
No evidence athletes at risk for cardiac arrest after COVID vaccinations -A study yesterday in the British Journal of Sports Medicine from researchers at the Amsterdam University Medical Centers (UMC) reviews all current literature on athletes, sudden cardiac arrest, and myocarditis following COVID-19 vaccines, and finds that athletes engaged in intensive activity are not at increased risk for heart complications following vaccination.On social media platforms, COVID-19 vaccines have been named the cause of cardiac arrest in young athletes, most recently Bronny James, LeBron James' college basketball-playing son who suffered a sudden heart attack while practicing for the University of Southern California last month.In the new paper, the authors said there were no confirmed cases of athletes with cardiac complications following mRNA vaccination as of February 15, 2023. Recently, they write, an Australian study of more than 4 million young adults showed no increase in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest for those with recent COVID-19 infections or vaccination."Although the absence of evidence does not necessarily reflect an absence of effect, there are currently no available scientific reports that provide an evidence-based framework to prove causality between the reported events and mRNA COVID-19 vaccination," the authors wrote.Myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle, can rarely occur following COVID-19 infection, and even more rarely following COVID-19 vaccination."Although athletes—due to their relatively young age—are at increased risk of developing myocarditis, we found no evidence in the studies that COVID-19 vaccination combined with intense exercise increased this risk even further," said study author Joelle Daems, a PhD candidate in Sports Cardiology at Amsterdam UMC, in a UMC press release.
Vaccine hesitancy behind most decisions to not get COVID-19 vaccines -A new study in the American Journal of Epidemiology shows that for three out of every four Americans who were not vaccinated with COVID-19 vaccines by mid-2021, vaccine hesitancy was the main reason for their refusal to get vaccinated.The study used data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Research and Development Survey, given to 5,458 US adults in May and June of 2021.The authors of the study wanted to calculate the adjusted population attribution fraction (PAF) of vaccine hesitancy.In total, 40.7% of survey participants were hesitant and 67.2% were vaccinated. Through a series of questions, the authors found the adjusted PAF of non-vaccination attributed to vaccine hesitancy was 76.1%.Vaccine hesitancy, which began to grow steadily in the US during the early 2000s with false claims that common childhood vaccines caused autism, soared again during the pandemic, as employee vaccine mandates became political footballs."This study found that the adjusted PAF of COVID-19 non-vaccination attributed to hesitancy (76.1%) is higher than the adjusted PAF of non-vaccination of routinely recommended vaccines attributed to hesitancy found in previous studies (which ranged from 6.5% to 31.3%),” the authors said.Targeting hesitancy should be the main focus of any COVID-19 vaccines campaigns going forward, the authors said.
"Your Injections Are Killing Our Young People" - Pfizer, Moderna Reps Slammed During Heated Aussie Senate Hearing -- Sparks flew during a contentious public hearing in the Australian Parliament earlier this week as Representatives from Pfizer and Moderna gave unsatisfactory answers to multiple lawmakers’ questions.The Australian Senate’s ‘Education and Employment Legislation Committee’ held a hearing Wednesday regarding the status of the COVID-19 vaccines, which included witnesses from Pfizer Australia, Moderna, and the Australia’s Theraputic Goods Administration (TGA).Conservative lawmakers were outraged that at least half of all Australians got COVID after the country imposed some of the most draconian lockdowns and vaccine mandates in the world.During the hearing, a Pfizer representative insisted that no one was forced to get the risky COVID-19 jabs in Australia, despite the county’s strict mandates.Senator Pauline Hanson confronted Dr. Brian Hewitt, Pfizer Australia’s Head of Regulatory Sciences, about a comment he had made earlier in the hearing regarding the country’s vaccine mandates.“You actually made a comment that no one was forced to have the vaccination,” Hanson said, after initially attributing the comment to his colleague Dr. Krishan Thiru, Pfizer Australia’s Country Medical Director.“You were in Australia during COVID-19 … you must have been fully aware that people—nurses, doctors, people—to keep their jobs, were forced to have the vaccination,” she said.“Now, do you retract your statement that they were not forced?”“Senator, no, I believe firmly that no one was forced to have a vaccine,” Hewitt responded.“Mandates and vaccine requirements are determined by governments and health authorities. I believe everyone was offered an opportunity to get a vaccine or not get a vaccine and I don’t believe that anybody was forced to take the vaccine.”“A lot of Australians will disagree with you on that one,” Hanson shot back.
China says 239 people died from COVID-19 in June in a significant uptick (AP) — China reported Thursday that 239 people died from COVID-19 in June in a significant uptick months after it lifted most containment measures. The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention had reported 164 deaths in May and none at all in April and March. China started employing a “zero-COVID” containment strategy in early 2020 and credits the strict lockdowns, quarantines, border closures and compulsory mass testing with significantly saving lives. But the measures were lifted suddenly in December with little preparation, leading to a final surge in which about 60,000 people died, according to the official toll. Deaths this year peaked in January and February, hitting a high of 4,273 on Jan, 4, but then declined gradually to zero on Feb. 23, according to the Chinese CDC. Chinese health officials didn’t say whether they expect the trend to continue or if they would recommend for preventative measures to be restored. Two of the deaths in June were from respiratory failure caused by infection, while the CDC said the others involved underlying conditions. Those can include diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure and other chronic illnesses. Between Jan. 3, 2020, and July 5, 2023, China reported 99,292,081 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 121,490 deaths to the World Health Organization. Experts estimate that many hundreds of thousands of people, perhaps more, may have died in China — far higher than the official toll, but still a significantly lower death rate than in the United States and Europe.
COVID hospitalizations rising in some reporting countries Though COVID-19 cases and deaths don't accurately reflect global trends due to decreased testing and reporting, the indicators declined over the past 28 days except for in the Western Pacific region, where South Korea is reporting a steady rise in cases, the World Health Organization (WHO) said today in its latestweekly COVID-19 update.A number of countries are leaning more on hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) admission trends to gauge COVID activity, but the WHO notes that very few countries are reporting those numbers. Of 17 countries that consistently report hospitalization data, only two reported rises of 20% or more over the last month: Bangladesh and Kyrgyzstan. The United States and Greece reported smaller rises. Of 13 countries that consistently report ICU admissions, three showed an increase of 20% or more over the last 4 weeks: Latvia, Ireland, and Greece.In its discussion of variant trends, the WHO said EG.5 has been reported from 48 countries and is currently the only variant showing increasing proportions. Yesterday, the WHO published a risk assessment of EG.5 and elevated it to a variant of interest alongside XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.16. Though EG.5 is increasing in proportions as hospitalizations rise, albeit at lower levels than earlier waves, in countries such as South Korea and Japan, no associations have been made between the two trends. "However, due to its growth advantage and immune escape characteristics, EG.5 may cause a rise in case incidence and become dominant in some countries or even globally," it said.
Listeria infections prompt ice cream recall -A New York company has recalled its soft-serve ice cream cups distributed to 20 states following reports of two Listeria monocytogenes infections in two different states and findings in a product sample, according to anotice yesterday from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Real Kosher Ice Cream, based in Brooklyn, said the Soft Serve on the Go ice cream and sorbet cups were sold at canteens and grocery and convenience stores. They are packaged in 8-ounce cups with a clear plastic cover with a seal and an attached spoon. All six flavors are subject to the recall.The infections involve patients from New York and Pennsylvania. No deaths were reported. Testing of product samples by the Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture found that that one was positive for Listeria. The company said it has stopped production and distribution of the ice cream.Listeriosis can be serious or fatal in some groups, such as children, older people, and those with weakened immune systems. Infections in pregnant women can lead to miscarriages and stillbirths. Ice cream has been linked to Listeria outbreaks before. In 2022, an outbreaktied to Big Olaf Creamery, based in Florida, resulted in at least 27 infections, 1 of them fatal.
Quick takes: Polio in 3 nations, global mpox, animal flu resource, Ebola/Marburg guidance | CIDRAP
- Pakistan has reported another wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) case, marking its second of the year, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) said in its latest weekly update. The patient is from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in the northwestern part of the country, an area where polio vaccinators are facing armed attacks, including a policeman who was killed this week in the province's Bannu district while providing security to a vaccination team, according to a media report. Elsewhere, two African countries reported more circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) cases. Burkina Faso reported its second case of the year, and Chad reported 5 cases in four provinces, bringing its total for the year to 20.
- Though overall mpox cases declined last week, four countries reported an increase in cases, with Mexico reporting the biggest rise, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in its latest update. Over the past 4 weeks, countries in the Western Pacific region—especially China and South Korea—reported 65.0% of global cases, followed by the Americas region at 15.6%. Portugal also reported a rise in cases over the past 3 weeks.
- The WHO this week updated its resources for countries experiencing influenza outbreaks in animals or suspected zoonotic flu cases in humans. It brings together recommendations and guidance from the WHO, the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The resource covers surveillance collaboration, community protection, countermeasure access, clinical care, and emergency coordination.
- The WHO today also issued new guidelines on infection prevention and control (IPC) for Ebola and Marburg disease, its first comprehensive evidence-based guidance on these measures for these related hemorrhagic fever virus illnesses. The guidelines cover IPC ring approach once a case is identified; screening, triage, and isolation; managing healthcare workers after exposure; personal protective equipment; hand hygiene and glove disinfection; cleaning and disinfection of the patient environment; waste management; and handling of deceased patients.
Study highlights resistance genes in shiga toxin-producing E coli -- Whole-genome sequencing of shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) from human fecal samples found that nearly 15% harbored antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes, English researchers reported today in theJournal of Antimicrobial Therapy.For the study, researchers with the UK Health Security Agency extracted and sequenced DNA from fecal specimens from patients in England with suspected gastrointestinal infections, which are tested for a range of gastrointestinal pathogens. They focused on STEC O157:H7, the most frequently detected STEC serotype in the United Kingdom, and used long-read sequencing to describe the occurrence and frequency of AMR determinants in STEC O157:H7 isolates.Overall, 216 (14.7%) of 1,473 STEC O157:H7 isolates had at least one AMR determinant, although the proportion of isolates exhibiting AMR varied by sublineage. The highest proportions of AMR determinants were detected in sublineages Ib (28/64, 43.7%), I/II (18/51, 35.3%), and IIc (122/440, 27.7%). In all seven sublineages, the most commonly detected AMR genes conferred resistance to aminoglycosides (11.7%), tetracyclines (11.3%), sulphonamides (11.7%), and beta-lactams (8.8%). AMR genes conferring resistance to fluoroquinolones, macrolides, and third-generation cephalosporins were rarely detected, and no carbapenemase genes were detected.The study authors say that the proportion of STEC O157:H7 isolates in England harboring resistance to at least one class of antibiotics has decreased over the last two decades, dropping from 20% in previous studies to 14.7% in this study, a finding they suggest might be related to more regulated use of antibiotics in UK livestock. In addition, they note that the strains associated with travel outside the United Kingdom were more likely to harbor resistance genes.They say implementing long-read sequencing into routine surveillance will enable public health officials to monitor the emergence and spread of drug-resistant enteric pathogens."Monitoring AMR in gastrointestinal pathogens may provide an early warning of emerging risks to public health regarding the clinical management and empirical treatment of infectious diseases," they wrote.
With global initiatives, CDC aims to stop resistant pathogens before they cross borders -A supplement published last month in Clinical Infectious Diseases provides a window into the evolving picture of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in low- and middle-income countries and how it's been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.The supplement includes 17 papers that show substantial increases in broad-spectrum antibiotic use, multidrug-resistant infections, and previously uncommon resistance genes in hospitals in Latin America during the pandemic, along with studies that show high baseline rates of AMR colonization in hospitals and communities in Southeast Asia even before the pandemic. And many of these countries lack the resources needed to address these issues. In a world where infectious disease (both viral and bacterial) have no respect for borders, the supplement highlights a concern shared by infectious disease experts and public health officials alike: The next deadly pathogen could be right around the corner.CIDRAP News recently spoke with supplement editor Fernanda Lessa, MD, MPH, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Team Lead for international healthcare-associated infections and AMR, about the AMR picture in low- and middle-income countries, and how the CDC can help these countries limit the spread of drug-resistant pathogens. The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Drug-resistant killer bugs linked to air pollution, top scientists say – As if air pollution wasn’t deadly enough. Now new research suggests tiny airborne pollutants may be linked to higher rates of drug-resistant lethal bacteria.In the study, researchers from Zhejiang University, China and the University of Cambridge, England, concluded that air pollution is one of the leading factors driving antimicrobial resistance (AMR) after compiling data from 116 countries between 2000 and 2018, with more than 11.5 million lab test results covering nine bacterial pathogens and 43 types of antibiotics.The world is battling to combat the growing threat from antimicrobial resistance — a phenomenon caused by bugs such as bacteria, fungi and parasites evolving to survive against drug treatments. Without effective antibiotics, routine operations and previously minor infections, for example, could once again turn deadly.“Our analysis presents strong evidence that increasing levels of air pollution are associated with increased risk of antibiotic resistance,” said the authors of the study, published Tuesday in The Lancet Planetary Health.Scientists previously found inhaling tiny particulate matter — typically generated from industrial processes, road transport, coal and wood burning — to be one way to be infected with a drug-resistant bug. That's because the matter, known as PM2.5, contains diverse antibiotic-resistant bacteria and antibiotic-resistance genes.With around 1.3 million deaths in 2019 directly attributed to antimicrobial resistance, researchers set out to identify the extent to which air pollution may be fueling this global crisis.The misuse and overuse of antibiotics are the main drivers of antibiotic resistance, but the scientists found that every 1 percent rise in air pollution was linked with increases in antibiotic resistance of between 0.5 and 1.9 percent, depending on the pathogen. And this association has strengthened over time. Overall, they concluded that pollution accounted for 11 percent of the global growth in AMR.“Antibiotic resistance and air pollution are each in their own right among the greatest threats to global health,” said lead author Hong Chen, of Zhejiang University. “Until now, we didn’t have a clear picture of the possible links between the two, but this work suggests the benefits of controlling air pollution could be two-fold: not only will it reduce the harmful effects of poor air quality, it could also play a major role in combating the rise and spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria.” Their analysis indicates antibiotic resistance resulting from air pollution is linked to an estimated 480,000 premature deaths in 2018, with an additional economic cost of $395 billion based on the years of life lost in each country.
Rise in Air Pollution Fuels Antibiotic Resistance, Study Suggests -Air pollution could be helping drive a rise in drug-resistant infections, which pose a dangerous threat to global public health, according to a new study.The paper, published Monday in Lancet Planetary Health, concludes that particulate air pollution (PM2.5), which comes from burning fossil fuels for energy, industrial processes, and transportation, may be one of the largest contributors to the spread of antibiotic resistance worldwide. The link between the two phenomena has strengthened over time, according to the research.“The benefits of controlling air pollution could be two-fold: not only will it reduce the harmful effects of poor air quality, it could also play a major role in combating the rise and spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria,” said Hong Chen, the paper’s lead author and a professor of environmental science at Zhejiang University in China, in a statement. The vast majority of the world’s population lives in areas where air pollution exceeds health standards set by the World Health Organization (WHO), meaning that they breath air containing high levels of pollutants, including PM2.5. Breathing polluted air raises the risk of premature death from heart disease, lung disease, stroke, and cancer affecting the lungs or airways. The Biden Administration has proposed multiple new policies to try to limit PM2.5, including tighter standards for soot pollution, new vehicle emissions standards, and improved reporting of air pollutants. Antibiotic resistance is a growing problem worldwide. When antibiotic resistant bacteria spread, they can cause infections that do not respond to treatment. According to the WHO, antibiotic resistance has made certain infections, such as pneumonia, tuberculosis, gonorrhea, and salmonella more difficult to treat, leading to longer hospital stays, higher medical costs, and a higher likelihood of death.In the US alone, about 2.8 million antibiotic-resistant infections occur each year, and those infections cause more than 35,000 annual deaths, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).Misusing or overusing antibiotics is one cause of the problem, since overusing antibiotics causes infectious bacteria to develop a tolerance to the drugs. But the spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria through humans, animals, and the environment also exacerbates the problem, and air pollution from PM2.5 may be one pathway that facilitates the spread, the new paper suggests.The researchers used data showing antibiotic resistance in human blood and spinal fluid, along with air pollution data, from 116 countries across nearly two decades. They found that a 1% increase in air pollution was associated with increases in antibiotic resistance of up to 1.9%, depending on the exact type of bacteria.Antibiotic resistance spread as a result of air pollution caused 480,000 premature deaths in 2018, the authors estimate. If no action to reduce air pollution is taken, more human lives will be put at risk, they write.
Study finds rain-driven microbial pollution persists at surfing beaches in colder months -Surfers at beaches where stormwater drainage pipes discharge into the ocean risk catching more than waves on a rainy day. Monmouth University researchers studying the influence of weather and ocean conditions on microbial pollution found that within 6–24 hours of moderate rainfall, enterococcus bacteria levels exceeded state health safety standards about half the time at these beaches. While rain is a known driver of illness-causing microbial pollution at New Jersey beaches, this was the first peer-reviewed study to formally investigate the linkage.The research is published in the journalEnvironmental Monitoring and Assessment.Endowed Professor of Marine Science Jason Adolf and Specialist Professor Jeff Weisburg of Monmouth University's Biology Department collected water samples with students on dry days and following storms at five Monmouth County beaches with outflow pipes in 2019 and 2020. The research was conducted both in the summer bathing season—when the state monitors pollution levels weekly—and from September–May, which is not a time period regularly monitored by the state. Although the throngs of beachgoers largely vanish after Labor Day, the fall and winter months are considered prime surfing season for the Jersey Shore, and its waters remain crowded with riders taking advantage of hurricane swells."Without a system on the beach to warn them, surfers could unknowingly be exposed to bacteria that can cause respiratory infections, nausea, abdominal pain and fevers," said Dr. Weisburg, whose research focus is immunology and disease. "Since the restrictions on which beaches you're allowed to surf at are lifted in the off season, surfers should take advantage of the other beaches open to them and steer clear of outfall pipes during and after rains."The samples were tested for enterococcus levels and checked for relationships with data for three important drivers: precipitation, which transports animal waste and other pollutants to beaches via stormwater discharges; water temperature, which determines how easy it is for bacteria to thrive; and tide stage, which can control whether the pollutants are diluted or concentrated.The research found that rainfall within 6–24 hours of sampling and higher water temperatures were the best predictors of high enterococcus counts, although exceedances of the state regulatory threshold of 104 colony-forming units (CFU) per 100 mL seawater were found in all seasons—even in seas as cold as 44 degrees F, following rainy periods. Although not an explicit part of this study, observations during sampling suggested that these bacteria spikes subsided quickly at these sites, within one or two days of occurring.
Bangladesh battles its deadliest dengue fever outbreak on record - -Bangladesh’s worst dengue fever outbreak on record has killed more than 300 people this year, overwhelming the country’s vulnerable medical system and prompting calls for a more coordinated response amid a spike in new cases. The mosquito-borne disease has claimed at least 303 lives and infected nearly 63,700 people across the South Asian nation, according to the latest government figures on Saturday, making this the deadliest year since the country started tracking dengue outbreaks in 2000. Most of the deaths were in Dhaka, Bangladesh’s densely populated capital, where hospitals are struggling to accommodate an influx of patients. Raman Velayudhan, who leads the World Health Organization’s program for the control of neglected tropical diseases, said about half the world’s population is now at risk for dengue, as a rapidly changing climate yields warmer and wetter weather that provides ideal breeding conditions for mosquitoes and risks exacerbating the situation. “Dengue is a problem linked mostly with climate change, and we need to find ways to mitigate its impacts on every country level,” Velayudhan said during a webinar last week, adding that more outbreaks are expected in Bangladesh and other parts of Asia following the monsoon season. Cases reported to the WHO hit an all-time high in 2019, at 5.2 million in 129 countries, “and we expect 2023 also to be a bad year as indications are,” Velayudhan said. The U.N. health agency warned in January that dengue’s rapid spread represented a pandemic-level threat. Globally, rates of dengue have continued to rise. In March, the WHO declared dengue a “major public health problem” for the Americas region, and Peru extended a health emergency this summer after experiencing the largest dengue outbreak in the country’s history.
WHO details unusual dengue surge in Bangladesh - Bangladesh is experiencing an unusual surge in dengue activity that started earlier than usual and is occurring with a relatively high case-fatality rate (CFR), the World Health Organization (WHO) said today in an outbreak notice.The spike started in late June and has so far resulted in 69,483 lab-confirmed cases, 327 of them fatal, for a CFR of 0.47%. Nearly two thirds of the cases and deaths were reported in July. Activity is fueled by high rainfall amounts that, along with high temperatures and high humidity, have led to an increase in mosquito populations throughout Bangladesh. Cases and deaths are tracking higher than in similar periods for the past 5 years and are at their highest levels since 2000. Outbreak activity hasn't likely peaked, the WHO said. The CFR is higher in females, especially younger adult women. The overall CFR is also higher in seniors than in younger adults.The predominant virus is dengue serotype 2, which hasn't been the country's dominant serotype since 2018, when it was replaced by serotype 3. The WHO said the shift in serotypes may be contributing to more severe infections and hospitalizations when patients are infected for a second time with a different serotype. Bangladesh's climate conditions are becoming more favorable to transmission of dengue and other vector-borne diseases owing to excess rainfall, waterlogging, flooding, temperature rises, and unusual seasonal shifts, the WHO warned.Yesterday WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said on Twitter that the WHO is worried about a rise in dengue activity across Southeast Asia, especially in Bangladesh, in part because of the climate crisis. In a weekly epidemiologic report, the WHO's Southeast Asia regional office noted a sharp dengue rise in Nepal and a more modest rise in Thailand.
- The World Health Organization (WHO) recently posted an update on public health threats related to the June onset of the El Nino climate pattern, which is predicted to last at least until the end of the year. It said the highest risk is due to malnutrition from food insecurity and diarrheal illnesses, especially in drought-affected areas, factors that could contribute to population displacement. The next-highest risk is cholera and other diarrheal diseases due to water contamination from flooding or water scarcity in drought-affected areas, especially in East Africa. Other threats in the high-risk category include other waterborne illnesses, foodborne disease, malaria, arbovirus diseases, other vector-borne diseases, rodent-borne diseases, and vaccine-preventable diseases.
- Bavarian Nordic yesterday reported more promising phase 3 clinical trial results for its candidate chikungunya vaccine, this time in adolescents and adults ages 12 to 65 years old. The trial enrolled more than 3,200 people who were randomized to receive a single dose of the virus-like particle vaccine or a placebo. In results 22 days after immunization, the vaccine was highly immunogenic, prompting a strong response in 98% of recipients, with neutralizing antibody titers above the study targets. Also, 86% had neutralizing antibodies at the predefined seroprotection level 6 months after vaccination. In June, the company reported similar promising findings in older people. Company officials project regulatory submission in 2024.
- In its latest weekly mosquito-borne illness update the Florida Department of Health reported another local dengue case, raising the total to six for the year. Like the others, the patient is from Miami-Dade County. Florida eliminated dengue transmission in the 1930s, but has reported sporadic local cases due to introductions related to international travel. In 2022, it reported 68 local dengue cases, mainly from Miami-Dade County.
Tick tick boom: how much is Lyme disease increasing in the US? -- Lyme disease cases appear to have more than doubled in the US over the past 30 years. As with so many diseases, though, it can be hard to figure out how much of that increase is because doctors have become better at diagnosing it and patients have become more aware of its symptoms. Lyme, the most commonly reported tick-borne disease, is named after a town in Connecticut where two women fought ferociously in the 1970s to have their ailments taken seriously by the medical establishment. Due to complex symptoms that can last years after a tick bite, Lyme continues to be an illness doctors can easily miss. Connecticut is still among states with the highest number of cases (541 in 2021) although it’s far behind New Jersey and New York, which both had more than 3,000. Bites are highly seasonal because ticks are highly seasonal – the little parasites (really little, just 3 to 5mm long) tend to feed off blood in the warmer months. It’s then that ticks will look for their “hosts”, a rather presumptuous description. Since 2008, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has added “probable cases” to the “confirmed cases” in its tally, which has significantly increased the numbers. The public health agency advises that you “avoid wooded and brushy areas with high grass and leaf litter” where ticks love to live and that when you get home, you check your body extensively, including the places where ticks often relocate – warm little nooks like your underarms, belly button and the backs of your knees.
After Government Cyanide Bomb Poisons Boy, Family Pushes Ban -- Canyon’Manfields 3-year-old yellow lab, Kasey, was his constant companion. The two set off as usual that afternoon. Kasey was thrashing one of his toys when Canyon spotted a sprinkler-like object protruding from the ground. He ran a finger along the device. Suddenly, he heard a pop, and an orange cloud burst forth. Canyon lunged back as the front of his body was doused in chemicals. The burning began immediately. As Canyon grasped for snow to irrigate his eyes, he heard Kasey grunting near the device. He called to him, but he didn’t come. He stopped what he was doing and ran to him. Dropping to his knees, Canyon watched as Kasey writhed in spasms. Frothing at the mouth, the dog’s eyes turned glossy. Canyon’s father, Mark Mansfield, a family doctor, was at work when the boy called for help. He raced home as fast as he could. Kasey was dead, and Canyon’s head was pounding like never before. […] Across the American West lies an untold number of potent chemical weapons, tucked away and waiting to go off. There could be one on your favorite hiking trail, or on the loop where you walk your dog, or in the woods where your kids play. Packed with sodium cyanide, these spring-loaded devices blast clouds of poison gas five feet into the air. Once inhaled, the lethal toxins mount a multidirectional attack on your cardiovascular, pulmonary, and central nervous system. Death can come in a matter of minutes. The weapons, known as M-44s, are placed by an under-the-radar federal agency called Wildlife Services. The agency was created to protect the livestock industry’s bottom line by killing off the competition: namely, wild predators. The so-called cyanide bombs do kill predators, but they can also kill anyone else unlucky enough to stumble upon them. And they have a hair trigger. Wildlife Services, which falls under the U.S. Department of Agriculture, is well known in conservationist circles. Most people, however, have never heard of it. For the uninitiated, a glimpse into the taxpayer-funded killing machine can be jarring.In the past eight years, Wildlife Services killed nearly 21 million animals as part of its mission to oversee “the eradication and control” of species “injurious” to human endeavors, particularly ranching. While agents’ preferred means of killing is by air, with gunmen in helicopters and planes, M-44s were used to intentionally kill more than 88,000 animals from 2014 through 2022 — the period for which the agency has data available online. The total amounts to roughly 30 poisonings a day for much of the past decade.M-44s are part of “a broad strategy that also uses non-lethal methods, and that is informed by ongoing wildlife biology research,” Wildlife Services spokesperson Ed Curlett said in an emailed statement to The Intercept. Curlett added that 98 percent of the agency’s poison devices are placed on private lands and “only when the private, municipal, state, or federal landowner or manager requests assistance and enters a written cooperative agreement.”According to Wildlife Service’s data, an additional 2,200 animals were killed unintentionally over the 2014 through 2022 period, including endangered species, domestic livestock, and pets like the Mansfields’ dog.
Carcinogens found at Montana nuclear missile sites as reports of hundreds of cancers surface (AP) — The Air Force has detected unsafe levels of a likely carcinogen at underground launch control centers at a Montana nuclear missile base where a striking number of men and women have reported cancer diagnoses. A new cleanup effort has been ordered. The discovery “is the first from an extensive sampling of active U.S. intercontinental ballistic missile bases to address specific cancer concerns raised by missile community members,” Air Force Global Strike Command said in a release Monday. In those samples, two launch facilities at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana showed PCB levels higher than the thresholds recommended by the Environmental Protection Agency. PCBs are oily or waxy substances that have been identified as a likely carcinogen by the EPA. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma is a blood cancer that uses the body’s infection-fighting lymph system to spread. In response, Gen. Thomas Bussiere, commander of Air Force Global Strike Command, has directed “immediate measures to begin the cleanup process for the affected facilities and mitigate exposure by our airmen and Guardians to potentially hazardous conditions.” After a military briefing was obtained by The Associated Press in January showing that at least nine current or former missileers at Malmstrom were diagnosed with non-Hodgkin lymphoma, a rare blood cancer, the Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine launched a study to look at cancers among the entire missile community checking for the possibility of clusters of the disease. And there could be hundreds more cancers of all types, based on new data from a grassroots group of former missile launch officers and their surviving family members. According to the Torchlight Initiative, at least 268 troops who served at nuclear missile sites, or their surviving family members, have self-reported being diagnosed with cancer, blood diseases or other illnesses over the past several decades.
US reports a few more H5N1 detections in birds and mammals --In recent updates, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reported a few more avian flu detections in poultry, wild birds, and mammals. Poultry outbreaks have declined sharply since May, and officials reported a third recent outbreak at a live bird market in New York's Kings County, which includes Brooklyn. The most recent event occurred at a facility that had 990 birds. Sporadic H5N1 detections in wild birds have continued over the summer, and since late July, the APHIS has reported five detections, all from western states and involving bald and golden eagles, a western gull, and a turkey vulture. Officials also reported two more H5N1 detections mammals—a red fox from Pennsylvania and a mountain lion from Montana—raising the total to 200.
Nile crocodiles found to respond to baby cries from assortment of mammals, including humans - A team of bioacoustics researchers at the University of Saint-Etienne in France, working with a colleague from University Lyon, has found that Nile crocodiles respond to an assortment of baby mammal cries, including humans. In their study, reported in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, the group tested crocodile reactions to recordings of babies crying at CrocoParc in Agadir, Morocco.Prior research has shown that crocodiles tend to respond to the sound of distress in prey—they perk up and often head toward the sound hoping for a quick and easy meal. In this new effort, the research team wondered if crocodiles would respond in similar ways to other creatures that are not necessarily prey.To find out, they compiled a collection of recordings of babies of multiple species crying or yelling out in distress. The recordings featured such sounds from chimpanzee, bonobo and human infants in various degrees of stress. Human recordings included crying infants at home and at a pediatric office as they received vaccinations. The researchers then ventured to CrocoParc in Morocco, an outdoor facility created to house more than 300 crocodiles. In the park, the crocs are allowed to roam free over the grounds and to behave almost as if they were living in the wild. There the team set up speakers and played the recordings while recording the reactions of the crocodiles.The team found that most of the crocs responded to the recordings. They also noted that responses tended to be more urgent when hearing highly stressed cries. They also found that most reacted right away, especially when the cries suggested an infant of some kind might be in serious trouble.Notably, one croc, presumably a female, after heading to the speaker from which infant cries were emanating, suddenly turned around and faced others who had responded. Such a response, the researchers suggest, was similar to the way a mother would respond when protecting her young.The research team concludes that there is a universality to baby cries, along with a long history of crocodiles consuming infants that wander too far from parental protection.
Are heat illnesses on the rise in South Florida record temps? -- Calculating the damage from a hurricane or wildfire is straightforward: simply add up the cost of destroyed buildings, disrupted business and livelihoods lost. For extreme heat — the kind that has gripped South Florida and much of the nation for months now — the toll is harder to tally, because the real danger of heat isn’t to homes and power lines, it’s to human health. And, experts say, the official numbers likely don’t capture the whole picture. This summer’s record-breaking, unrelenting heat has already claimed at least one life, according to friends and advocates of a 29-year-old farm worker who collapsed on a Homestead fruit farm in July. Fire rescue in Miami-Dade also has noticed an uptick in 911 calls for heat exhaustion and heat stroke compared to last summer, which was less hot. June through mid-July of last year, the department received 86 calls. This year, they got 99. But more complete official records, including a daily count of heat hospitalizations and deaths in South Florida, are harder to come by. Local hospitals declined to provide to the Miami Herald their own count of heat hospitalizations and deaths. The state does track it for some counties, including Miami-Dade, but the Department of Health did not immediately respond to a request for data. However, several doctors at hospitals around the county say they haven’t seen more patients struggling with the heat, despite a near-daily drumbeat of high-temperature records being shattered. “I haven’t heard about a whole lot more deaths,” said Dr. Cheryl Holder, interim executive director of Florida Clinicians for Climate Action. “This is a good thing.” But many experts, including Holder, believe heat-related illnesses and deaths are almost certainly under-counted both in Florida and nationwide. One major reason is the way the medical industry keeps records. Heat affects the body in a number of ways, including some that scientists are still discovering. Besides the obvious direct links, like heat stress and heat stroke, high temperatures can worsen heart and lung conditions, chronic illnesses like Lupus, diabetes and asthma. But when someone is hospitalized for one of the conditions that are worsened by heat, their provider typically records only the chronic illness, not heat. “What you end up with is a correlation that never proves causality, or you end up with not the strongest numbers,” said Holder. “And it seems like it is not an important number because it’s low.”
European scientists make it official. July was the hottest month on record by far - Now that last month’s sizzling numbers are all in, the European climate monitoring organization made it official: July 2023 was Earth’s hottest month on record by a wide margin.July’s global average temperature of 16.95 degrees Celsius (62.51 degrees Fahrenheit) was a third of a degree Celsius (six tenths of a degree Fahrenheit) higher than the previous record set in 2019, Copernicus Climate Change Service announced Tuesday. Normally global temperature records are broken by hundredths or a tenth of a degree, so this margin is unusual.The United States is now at a record 15 different weather disasters that caused at least $1 billion in damage this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Tuesday. It’s the most mega-disasters through the first seven months of the year since the agency tracked such things starting in 1980, with the agency adjusting figures for inflation.“These records have dire consequences for both people and the planet exposed to ever more frequent and intense extreme events,” said Copernicus deputy director Samantha Burgess. There have been deadly heat waves in the Southwestern United States and Mexico, Europe and Asia. Scientific quick studies put the blame on human-caused climate change from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas.The previous single-day heat record was set in 2016 and tied in 2022. From July 3, each day has exceeded that record. It’s been so warm that Copernicus and the World Meteorological Organization made the unusual announcement that it was likely the hottest month days before it ended. Tuesday’s calculations made it official.
‘Lose, lose, lose’: Oil-producing Persian Gulf faces extreme heat - Heat waves are sweeping the planet this summer, and climate change all but guarantees that people across the world will face even worse conditions in the years ahead.But some of the most intense warming is expected to strike many of the same nations that produce the fossil fuels responsible for climate change. Already home to some of the hottest places on the planet, the Persian Gulf region could suffer seasonal extremes that would make it unbearable to be outdoors for extended periods.Case in point: The United Arab Emirates — a major fossil fuel producer and host of this year’s global climate talks — is among the countries that will face some of the greatest exposure, even if global temperatures don’t exceed the targets of the Paris climate agreement.Mean summer temperatures there already range from 90 to 100 degrees Fahrenheit (32 to 37.2 degrees Celsius) but can climb to a dangerous 122 F (50 C), according to the World Bank Group’s climate change knowledge portal.This level of extreme heat may seem like an incentive to address global warming by reducing fossil fuel use. Yet some Gulf state metropolises have built elaborate air-conditioned spaces and other means of isolating themselves from the heat — in part by tapping into oil wealth. And the UAE and other regional monarchies such as Saudi Arabia plan to continue investing in oil and natural gas for the foreseeable future.But air conditioning has its limits, and its benefits don’t extend to the workers who toil in the sun even during the summer months to keep the region’s industries humming.One problem facing Gulf states is that most modern cooling systems increase the demand for energy from an already polluting grid, creating a vicious circle that could put petrostates at greater risk of climate impacts. “The warmer and more humid the weather, the greater the need to use air conditioning, and it adds more to emissions, which then adds on to the adverse weather conditions,” . “When the power is gone, even the best [air conditioning] system will not help,” Koç added. In a region that is already warming almost two times faster than the global average, the risks are significant. “The challenge that the Persian Gulf countries face is that they are situated at the boundary between a very hot desert in the Arabian Peninsula … and the extremely warm, bathtub-like water of the Persian Gulf,” said Colin Raymond, wholed a 2020 study that found extreme heat and humidity are occurring more than twice as often as they did just a few decades ago.
The West sizzles — even at midnight -- In Southern California, the Badwater Basin weather station in Death Valley National Park reached 119.6 degrees Fahrenheit on July 17. That may seem unremarkable — this is Death Valley, after all, where the visitor center is named after Furnace Creek. But this brain-roasting temperature was recorded not at the hottest point of the day, but at midnight.By 5 a.m., it had cooled down to a relatively refreshing 107 degrees Fahrenheit. This is just an extreme example of the brutal heat wave that has gripped a good swath of the Western U.S. for much of the summer, endangering public health, increasing wildfire risk,straining the power grid and rendering cities nearly uninhabitable. It should serve as yet another alarm bell reminding us that human-caused climate change is here. Urgent action is needed on many fronts — including, yes, a halt to fossil fuel combustion and its greenhouse gas emissions. But we also need to overhaul our built environment to make it and the people who live in it more resilient to the impacts of global warming. Unlike last September’s California heat wave or the deadly scorcher in the Northwest in June 2021, this one isn’t smashing all-time high temperature records. (Death Valley reached 128 degrees Fahrenheit, a few degrees short of the record.) That’s led some on social media to downplay the calamity: It’s summer. It’s the desert. It’s hot. It’s normal! Uh, no, this ain’t normal, folks. It’s utterly abnormal, whether you’re going by the dictionary definition of “normal” or the meteorological* one. The mercury has shot past 110 degrees Fahrenheit in Phoenix every day for a month. Not normal. The minimum temperature in Phoenix has stayed above 90 for almost as long. Not normal. This heat wave’s unusual severity stems from its long duration — we’ll be a month into it by the time this reaches your e-mailbox — combined with the unusually hot nighttime temperatures, which exacerbate the impacts of those daytime highs. And the suffering is by no means confined to Phoenix or the Southwest or even the entire U.S. Much of the globe is boiling, from Athens to Asia.
Arizona Republicans Don’t Want to Hear About the Deadly Heat Wave - When Arizona lawmakers returned to the state Capitol here earlier this month, they started their day with a prayer to ease the scorching heat. “We pray, Father, for solutions to end suffering and for our temperatures to trend downwards to provide relief for so many in harm’s way,” the legislative chaplain said as sweaty heads bowed in the state Senate. Meanwhile, the air conditioning was out in the state House of Representatives. Heat seeped through the western-facing wall as the state’s 60 representatives piled into the squat cinderblock building. Fans set up to cool the hallways were too loud for staff to work, so they were on only intermittently. Extension cords ran through the hallways, tripping up lobbyists passing through. It was the first day back in session after a six-week hiatus, and the heat was impossible to ignore. Every single day of July had reached 110 degrees or hotter, demolishing the previous record for the longest 110-plus-degree streak that Phoenix — nicknamed the Valley of the Sun for a reason — had ever seen. Most of those days were above 115 degrees, and most nights, the low stayed above 90 degrees, setting records on both fronts. All told, the average daily temperature — the average of the high and low — was 102 degrees, or more than 7 degrees above normal for July, which is also a record, according to the National Weather Service. Meanwhile, dozens of people have died amid the extreme heat. Maricopa County, where Phoenix is located, recently brought in new refrigerated storage containers to hold all the dead bodies, a tactic it first employed during the peak of the pandemic. But among some Arizona Republicans, saying this summer has been especially hot is akin to saying the 2020 election was especially free and fair or that Covid-19 is an especially deadly virus. With extreme and growing heat waves almost certainly fueled by climate change, Arizona might, in theory, be the kind of place where lawmakers grapple with this new reality. But the politics of climate change are just as paralyzed here as the rest of the country. Or perhaps it’s even worse, with the Arizona GOP taken over by its fringe elements in recent years and largely refusing to acknowledge the issue at all. Democrats, meanwhile, lament that their leaders aren’t doing nearly enough to address the heat — even as heat-related deaths are climbing. Even the most ardent climate change deniers don’t deny that the Valley is hot. Instead, the heat skeptics question how hot it is, exactly, along with who’s saying it’s hot and why. Heat-tolerant Republicans argue that the heat isn’t unusual — this is a desert city after all — or that even if this is an especially hot year, there are hot years and cold years. “If ya can’t stand the heat in Arizona, you’re welcome to leave.” Some conservatives suggest thermometers, like past vote counts, are rigged because they’re placed at the sun-scorched asphalt airport. Others say a national media frenzy is intended to promote the left’s climate change narrative and drive people to seek government solutions to a naturally occurring phenomenon.One of Arizona’s most vocal heat-skeptical lawmakers is GOP state Rep. Justin Heap. He’s engaged in frequent online skirmishes in which he dismisses the “media narrative” of climate change and suggests it’s part of a push on behalf of “global elites” who stand to benefit from massive government subsidies on green technology. “Apparently the national media has decided we are all insufficiently frightened about climate change so it’s time to portray normal summer heat as the apocalypse,” he wrote recently.
Arizona Republicans formally oppose new Grand Canyon national monument — Top Republican leaders in Arizona held an emergency joint committee meeting in Kingman on Monday night where they voted to formally oppose the creation of a new national monument near the Grand Canyon. The meeting comes less than 24 hours before President Joe Biden was expected to officially designate the monument on Tuesday. The Baaj Nwaavjo I’tah Kukveni-Ancestral Footprints of the Grand Canyon National Monument protects thousands of sites that are sacred to the Havasupai, Hopi, Hualapai, Paiute, Navajo, Yavapai-Apache, Zuni and Colorado River Indian Tribes, the Biden administration said. Its name comes from the Havasupai words baaj nwaavjo for “where Indigenous peoples roam,” and the Hopi words i’tah kukveny for “our ancestral footprints.” The meeting brought together Republican members of the state's Senate and House committees on Natural Resources, Energy and Water and the House Committee on Land, Agriculture and Rural Affairs, who characterized the proposed monument as a federal land grab. Many officials mentioned the fact that more than 80% of the land in Arizona is already federally controlled and the new national monument would further decrease the already limited amount of private land in the state and in turn adversely impact Mohave County. The lawmakers also expressed great concern about the national security impact from limiting our nation's uranium supply, which they said is vital for a clean energy future. "Mining is self-sufficiency," Rep. Cory McGarr, R-Marana, said. "This has nothing to do with the environment, this doesn't have anything to do with cultural lands or anything like that," he said. "Those are excuses that they're using to make sure we are beholden to other nations."
Biden signs order protecting Grand Canyon lands sacred to tribes - President Joe Biden signed a proclamation creating a national monument around the Grand Canyon National Park in Arizona on Tuesday, while vowing to continue to use his authority to protect “America’s natural wonders.” “Over the years, hundreds of millions of people have traveled to the Grand Canyon, awed by its majesty. But few are aware of its full history,” Biden said. “From time immemorial, more than a dozen tribal nations have lived, gathered, prayed on these lands.” Flanked by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) and various Native American tribal leaders, Biden signed the proclamation establishing the Baaj Nwaavjo I’tah Kukveni – Ancestral Footprints of the Grand Canyon National Monument at a ceremony in Red Butte, Ariz. The location of the signing ceremony was a sacred site called Wii’i Gdwiisa by the Havasupai Tribe on the monument’s southern end. The 917,618-acre national monument includes lands managed by the Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management. The federal agencies will share “co-stewardship of the monument” with tribal nations, according to the proclamation. The national monument will protect lands important to a dozen Native American tribes, in part, from potential uranium mining. It will also help tell the “full American story” of the people who have called the region home for millennia, Biden said during his speech. But, he noted, these tribes “were forced out” by the designation in 1919 of the Grand Canyon National Park. “They fought for decades to be able to return to these lands, to protect these lands from mining and development, to clear them of contamination, to preserve their shared legacy for future generations,” the president said. “I made a commitment as president to prioritize, respect tribal sovereignty and self-determination. To honor the solemn promises the United States made to tribal nations. I pledge to keep using all that available authority to protect tribal lands.” But the national monument designation has already been criticized by House Republicans who have called for a probe for information on how the monument boundaries were selected and how it will affect mining and energy development. They’ve argued it will block new uranium mining at a time when the U.S. should be looking to become more energy independent, especially given the prominence of Russia in the market to provide low-enriched uranium to nuclear reactors. Nathan Rees, Arizona field coordinator for Trout Unlimited, noted the site has long garnered support from bipartisan sources, including hunters and anglers in the state. “Given the toxic history of uranium mining in this region, we commend the leadership of this administration for enacting the wishes of millions of people hoping to preserve the beauty of this idyllic landscape,” Rees said. Although the monument boundaries will pause new mining claims in the region, the designation under the Antiquities Act will not necessarily curb all extraction, much less end the decadeslong fight between the mining industry and tribes and environmentalists.
Canada’s devastating wildfire season prompts calls for new approach The wildfires that ravaged Canada this summer have some experts calling for a more aggressive approach to the blazes than the country’s historically reactive, case-by-case approach. As of Tuesday, 1,160 fires are burning across the country. This year, nearly 30 million acres have burned across Canada, an area bigger than several individual U.S. states. The area burned — the fourth-most of any season on record — is too large to rely on colder weather and precipitation to do the bulk of the work in extinguishing the blazes. The affected area has included regions more prone to large fires, such as British Columbia and Saskatchewan. Fires in eastern provinces such as Quebec, where blazes are less common, blanketed the eastern U.S. in haze earlier this summer. In those provinces, wildfire agencies that are equipped to fight fewer and smaller fires were largely unprepared for the circumstances. “[T]he fires are burning hotter and spreading faster than they usually do. The image of a firefighter spraying water on a fire, or a water bomber dropping water right on the fire needs to be dispelled: under the current conditions, humans cannot get within 100s of meters of the fires: so no direct spraying can be done on most fires,” “Furthermore, you have to consider the whole perimeter of the fire as dangerous and capable of spreading,” Stockdale added. The current wildfire situation “takes a level of waterbombing and human power that is literally impossible to address,” he said. “Even if most of an individual fire’s perimeter is fully extinguished, any parts that are not put out have the potential to flare up days or even weeks later under the right weather conditions.” Historically, Canada’s approach to fires has been largely reactive and mostly concerned with immediate extinguishment of active fires, “The limited understanding of fire ecology at that time necessitated the immediate suppression of fires to protect valuable timber resources,” However, the sheer number and size of active fires, as well as their presence in areas less accustomed to dealing with the threat, has strained local resources and illustrated the limits of a case-by-case strategy. “[W]e have many fires in many parts of the country drawing upon a limited number of resources, both within Canada and internationally,” Canadian Emergency Preparedness Minister Bill Blair said in June. Firefighters have been deployed to assist from the U.S., Australia, South Korea and Mexico. While American forest management is typically handled at the federal level under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Forest Service, Canadian management operates on more of a provincial and territorial basis. “Each province is responsible for maintaining its own resources and personnel for firefighting. Historically, most provinces employ full-time enough resources to deal with their average fire seasons,”
Maui wildfires: At least 6 killed in wildfires that devastated parts of the Hawaiian island (AP) — A wildfire tore through the heart of the Hawaiian island of Maui in darkness Wednesday, reducing much of a historic town to ash and forcing people to jump into the ocean to flee the flames. At least six people died, dozens were wounded and 271 structures were damaged or destroyed.The fires continued to burn Wednesday afternoon, fueled by strong winds from Hurricane Dora as it passed well south of the Hawaiian islands. Officials feared the death toll could rise.“This is a deeply somber day,” Maui Mayor Richard Bissen said. “The gravity of losing any life is tragic. As we grieve with their families, we offer prayers for comfort in this inconsolable time.”As winds diminished somewhat, some aircraft resumed flights, enabling pilots to view the full scope of the devastation. Flyovers of the coastal town of Lahaina by U.S. Civil Air Patrol and the Maui Fire Department showed the extent of the loss, said Mahina Martin, a spokesperson for Maui County.Aerial video showed dozens of homes and businesses in Lahaina flattened, including on Front Street, a favorite spot for tourists to shop and dine. Smoking heaps of rubble lay piled high next to the waterfront, boats in the harbor were scorched, and gray smoke hovered over the leafless skeletons of charred trees.
Death toll from Maui wildfires rises to 53, more than 1,000 structures have burned on Hawaii island (AP) — A search of the wildfire devastation on the Hawaiian island of Maui on Thursday revealed a wasteland of obliterated neighborhoods and landmarks charred beyond recognition, as the death toll rose to at least 53 and survivors told harrowing tales of narrow escapes with only the clothes on their backs.A flyover of historic Lahaina showed entire neighborhoods that had been a vibrant vision of color and island life reduced to gray ash. Block after block was nothing but rubble and blackened foundations, including along famous Front Street, where tourists shopped and dined just days ago. Boats in the harbor were scorched, and smoke hovered over the town, which dates to the 1700s and is the biggest community on the island’s west side.“Lahaina, with a few rare exceptions, has been burned down,” Hawaii Gov. Josh Green told The Associated Press. More than 1,000 structures were destroyed by fires that were still burning, he said. The death toll will likely rise as search and rescue operations continue, Green added, and officials expect it will become the state’s deadliest natural disaster since a 1961 tsunami killed 61 people on the Big Island.Tiffany Kidder Winn’s gift store Whaler’s Locker, which is one of the town’s oldest shops, was among the many businesses destroyed. As she assessed the damage Thursday, she came upon a line of burned-out vehicles, some with charred bodies inside them. “It looked like they were trying to get out, but were stuck in traffic and couldn’t get off Front Street,” she said. She later spotted a body leaning against a seawall. Winn said the destruction was so widespread, “I couldn’t even tell where I was because all the landmarks were gone.” Fueled by a dry summer and strong winds from a passing hurricane, the fire started Tuesday and took Maui by surprise, racing through parched growth covering the island and then feasting on homes and anything else that lay in its path. The official death toll of 53 as of Thursday makes this the deadliest U.S. wildfire since the 2018 Camp Fire in California, which killed at least 85 people and laid waste to the town of Paradise. The Hawaii toll could rise, though, as rescuers reach parts of the island that had been inaccessible due to the three ongoing fires, including the one in Lahaina that was 80% contained on Thursday, according to a Maui County news release. More than 270 structures have been damaged or destroyed, and dozens of people have been injured, including some critically. Search and rescue teams still won’t be able to access certain areas until the fire lines are secure and they’re sure they’ll be able to get to those areas safely..
Hawaii wildfires: How did the Maui blazes start and what we know about the damage to Lahaina (Reuters) - Wildfires on Hawaii's Maui island and Big Island have killed dozens of people, forced thousands of residents and tourists to evacuate, and devastated the historic resort city of Lahaina. Here are some key questions and answers about the disaster. The causes of the fires, which started on Tuesday night, have not yet been determined. However, the National Weather Service had issued warnings for the Hawaiian Islands for high winds and dry weather - conditions ripe for wildfires - which it canceled late Wednesday. Nearly 85% of U.S. wildfires are caused by humans, according to the U.S. Forest Service. Natural causes include lightning and volcanic activity. The Hawaiian Islands have six active volcanoes, including one on Maui. Record-setting heat this summer has contributed to unusually severe wildfires in Europe and western Canada. Scientists say climate change, driven by fossil fuel use, has led to more frequent and more powerful extreme weather events. Winds from Hurricane Dora, hundreds of miles southwest of the Hawaiian Islands in the Pacific Ocean, have fanned the flames across the U.S. state, officials say. In addition to Dora, a low-pressure system to the west near Japan is also contributing to the high sustained winds. Dry vegetation is also a contributing factor. The spread of flammable non-native grasses such as Guinea grass in areas of former farmland and forest have created large amounts of small, easily ignited materials that increase the risk and severity of fire. The fires have caused widespread devastation in Lahaina, a beach resort city of about 13,000 people on northwestern Maui that was once a whaling center and the Hawaiian Kingdom's capital and now draws 2 million tourists a year. Fires have also burned around Kihei, a coastal city in South Maui, and destroyed parts of Kula, a residential area in the mountainous center of the island, as well as scorching parts of the Big Island.
Maui wildfires death toll rises to 55; rebuilding will cost billions, governor says - The wildfires that tore through Maui killed two more people, bringing the death toll from the Lahaina fire to 55, Maui officials said Thursday evening. The fire could be the worst natural disaster in Hawaii history, the state’s governor said earlier. “We will continue to see loss of life,” Gov. Josh Green (D) said at a news conference, adding that rebuilding could take years and will be costly. “It will take time to know the full extent, but it will be in the billions of dollars, without a doubt.” Maui County Mayor Richard Bissen warned residents who had fled their homes that those structures might be gone and said it’s best not to return now. “There’s no power, there’s no water back on the west side,” Bissen said at the Thursday afternoon news conference. President Biden declared a “major disaster” in Hawaii on Thursday and ordered federal aid to areas affected by wildfires, according to the White House. More than 130 Hawaii National Guard members have been activated, and helicopters are searching for those left behind in areas without power and accessible roads. Nearly 11,000 people are still without power in Maui, according to PowerOutage.us. The fires tore through the historic, popular vacation town of Lahaina, on Maui, which Hawaii Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke (D) said was “decimated” and “forever changed.” Maui County officials said the wildfire that caused widespread damage in Lahaina was 80 percent contained as of Thursday morning local time. A second fire on Maui was 70 percent contained, officials added, and a third fire is pending further assessment.
Maui Fire Death Toll Rises to 67 as Rescue Efforts Continue -- Officials raised the death toll from devastating wildfires on the Hawaii island of Maui to 67 as rescue and clean-up crews continued to dig through the rubble of the historic town of Lahaina. Authorities confirmed another 12 deaths on Friday as firefighters still had not fully contained the blaze that razed Lahaina, according to a statement from Maui County. Around 1,000 people remained unaccounted for, police said earlier. County water officials told residents not to drink tap water because of concerns it was contaminated from the fires. “We have suffered a tragedy here in Hawaii,” Governor Josh Green said Friday in video posted on Facebook. “The fires on Maui have been devastating. But we have hope.” Green said Thursday that the death count would probably rise as search crews work through the damage that he characterized as looking like a bomb scene. The blazes destroyed 1,000 or more structures, Green said. Accuweather Inc. put the preliminary estimate of damage from the fires at $8 billion to $10 billion. Aerial surveys found more than 270 buildings burned in the seaside resort of Lahaina, once the capital of the Hawaiian Kingdom. Thousands of residents and tourists had fled an area left without electricity, phone service or the internet. After witnessing the damage first hand, the governor said it was likely the largest natural disaster in Hawaii history. Photos and videos posted to social media this week depicted apocalyptic scenes. The flames — fanned by strong winds from a hurricane far off the coast — barreled through the town so quickly that residents had little time to flee, and some even jumped into the ocean to escape. The Coast Guard said it rescued more than a dozen people from the waters off Lahaina on the West Maui coast. Hawaii’s Attorney General office will conduct a “comprehensive review of critical decision-making and standing policies leading up to, during and after the wildfires,” the department said in a statement Friday. The old Lahaina, including its Front Street tourist destination once packed with waterfront restaurants and shops, has been destroyed, Green said. Virtually every building in Lahaina, he said, would need to be replaced, taking many years and billions of dollars. Initial damage estimates in all likelihood will climb as the fullest extent of the wreckage becomes known. President Joe Biden on Thursday declared a major disaster in Hawaii, freeing up federal funds to aid recovery. The Federal Emergency Management Agency is assisting with search and rescue efforts in Lahaina, Anne Bink, associate administrator of response and recovery, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. The agency has a stockpile of water and ready-to-eat meals on hand, and will arrange short-term shelter for people whose homes have been lost or damaged, in addition to assisting with the eventual rebuilding process, Bink said.
Maui fire: Death toll climbs to 80 - BBC News - Eighty people have now been confirmed to have been killed by wildfires on the Hawaiian island of Maui, officials say. There are fears the numbers will rise further, as hundreds are still uncontactable. Firefighters have been trying to contain fires in several areas, including the historic town of Lahaina which has been utterly devastated. Hawaii's attorney general has announced a "comprehensive review" into how the authorities responded to the wildfires. It comes as questions mount over whether officials warned residents fast enough. State officials reopened Lahaina to people with proof of residency on Friday for the first time since flames swept rapidly through early this week, razing much of the coastal town which has a rich history and attracts some two million tourists a year. But within hours after opening, the road was shut to everyone but emergency services. Authorities told the BBC that police had been called in to address a "situation" but would not elaborate. Evacuated Lahaina residents later said they believed their homes had been struck by looting, though this was not confirmed by police. Still, for hours after the closure, families sat in a mile-long line. Earlier, Governor Josh Green had warned residents would be greeted by "destruction like they've not ever seen in their lives". West Maui, where Lahaina and Kaanapali are located, is still without power and water. Search crews are still in the area looking for wildfire victims. That includes in the water. The Coast Guard said it had pulled 17 people alive from the water near the town's harbour so far. All were reported to be in a stable condition. But Gabe Lucy, who owns a tour operator on Maui, told the BBC that he was hearing horrific accounts. "People were jumping in the water and I think for a lot of them the fire wrapped around so quick that the only way to escape was go down to the water's edge," said Mr Lucy, whose boats were called in to help. He added that they were "picking up four-year-olds and putting them on surfboards and pulling them out" and that he had heard reports of "bodies on the rocks".
Maui disaster sirens never sounded as deadly fire engulfed hundreds of homes -- As the official death toll from the Maui wildfires reached 67 on Friday, questions are being raised about why Hawaii’s disaster warning system was never activated when the climate change-fueled inferno was spreading rapidly across the island. According to a PBS report on Thursday, Hawaii emergency management records “show no indication that warning sirens sounded before people ran for their lives from wildfires on Maui,” and, instead, “officials sent alerts to mobile phones, televisions and radio stations—but widespread power and cellular outages may have limited their reach.” Hawaii has what the state says is the largest integrated outdoor all-hazard public safety warning system in the world. This includes about 400 sirens across the archipelago to alert people to various natural disasters and other threats. The system was created in the aftermath of a tsunami that struck Hawaii in 1946 and killed more than 150 people. Along with the fact that the sirens were not activated, according to a report by BBC on Friday, Maui officials issued contradictory information about the extent and danger of the flames as they were being whipped up Wednesday. The Maui County website issued a statement on Wednesday at 9:00 a.m. that said a brush fire had been “100% contained,” although “winds in the area remain a concern.” In addition to “a warning to avoid blocked roads,” the BBC report said, “officials gave no further warnings,” regarding the situation in Lahaina until 4:45 p.m. local time, when the county said, “an apparent flare-up” of the fire had “caused the closure of a bypass near the town, as well as some evacuations.” Further evacuations were announced later that afternoon, followed by an emergency declaration by Mayor Richard Bissen before 11:00 p.m. local time that night. Tourists in some hotels were instructed to remain in place to avoid clogging up local roads. However, by this time, flames driven by high winds from Hurricane Dora in the Pacific Ocean to the south of the islands had already engulfed parts of Lahaina, forcing some people to flee into the sea. Even though conditions for the eruption of wildfires were well known and warned about, local, state and federal officials were completely unprepared for the intensity and speed of the devastation. On Wednesday, acting Governor Sylvia Luke admitted as much during a press conference when she said, “We never anticipated in this state that a hurricane which did not make impact on our islands will cause this type of wildfires, wildfires that wiped out communities, wildfires that wiped out businesses, wildfires that destroyed homes.” Adam Weintraub of the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency told the Associated Press (AP) that the records do not show that Maui’s warning sirens were triggered when the Lahaina fire began on Tuesday. Weintraub said the county used emergency alerts sent to mobile phones, televisions and radio stations. Brad Ventura, chief of the Maui Fire Department, said the fire moved so quickly from brush to neighborhoods that it was impossible to get messages to the emergency management agencies responsible for issuing the alerts. “What we experienced was such a fast-moving fire through the … initial neighborhood that caught fire they were basically self-evacuating with fairly little notice,” Ventura said. Survivors told news media on Thursday that they did not hear any sirens or receive any warnings giving them enough time to prepare and only realized they were in danger when they saw the flames or heard nearby explosions. The Maui wildfires are Hawaii’s deadliest disaster since a 1960 tsunami killed 61 people. Officials are warning that the death toll will continue to rise as search and rescue operations continue, and more victims are found.
The deadliest natural disaster in Hawaii since it joined U.S. in 1959 - (video) Destructive wildfires in Maui, Hawaii have claimed at least 80 lives and destroyed more than 2 200 structures from August 8 to 9, 2023. The worst affected was the historic town of Lahaina where rapidly spreading wildfire from late August 8 to 9 killed 80 people and left 1 000 unaccounted for. Unfortunately, the confirmed deaths are only of people found outside of homes so the number will continue rising. At least 26 people have been hospitalized, three of whom with critical burns. This is now the deadliest natural disaster in Hawaii since it joined the United States in 1959. The previous was a tsunami that killed 61 people and damaged or destroyed more than 500 homes and businesses on May 22, 1960. The tsunami was produced by the 10-minute-long M9.5 earthquake in southwest Chile — the most powerful earthquake ever recorded. According to damage assessments made by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the fire in Lahaina resulted in an estimated total of 2 719 structures exposed, 2 207 structures damaged or destroyed, and 878 ha (2 170 acres) burned. 86% of buildings exposed to the fire were classified as residential. The downtown Lahaina Historic District — a National Historic Landmark — suffered extensive damage, with numerous historic landmarks destroyed or severely damaged. A total of 1 418 people were at emergency evacuation shelters at War Memorial Gymnasium, Hannibal Tavares Community Center, Maui High School, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints Maui Lani, Kings Cathedral Church and Grace Bible Church, as of 21:30 LT on August 11 (07:30 UTC on August 12). The disaster in Lahaina started after midnight (LT) on Tuesday, August 8, when a brush fire was reported in Kula, some 55 km (35 miles) from the town. Power outages started around 05:00 LT and by 15:30 LT the fire was reported in the town, with some residents evacuating while others stayed, including hotel guests who were instructed to shelter in place. The fire spread rapidly across the town over the next couple of hours, trapping many residents and tourists and forcing 17 of them to jump into the ocean to escape the flames. They were rescued by the Coast Guard some 6 hours later. As search and rescue teams continue their operations, authorities have launched an investigation to determine why little to no warning was given to residents and tourists. There are currently 3 active wildfires in Maui — Lahaina Fire (85% contained), Pūlehu/Kīhei (80% contained), and Kula (50% contained). Limited cellphone service is now available in West Maui but at least 12 000 customers are still without power.
Public Anger Grows After Floodwaters Deliberately Diverted To Save China's Capital - Many towns in China’s Hebei Province have sustained severe flooding due to the Chinese communist regime’s deliberate use of the locales as a “moat” to protect China’s capital city of Beijing and the new political hub of Xiong’an, following the strongest storm in northern China in years.The storm, super typhoon Doksuri, reached northern China on July 29 and was the strongest to hit Beijing and the surrounding areas in Hebei Province in 140 years, triggering flash floods and landslides.Provincial officials said on Aug. 3 that the floodwaters might take a month to completely recede. According to state media CCTV, modeling estimated that another 300 million to 400 million cubic meters of water needed to flow to the ocean.On July 31, flash floods were reported in the municipality of Beijing, a centrally administered region surrounded by Hebei Province, and by Aug. 1, eight reservoirs in the city began discharging water at the same time.Situated between Beijing and Xiong’an, the city of Zhuozhou and its nearby areas—home to about 1 million people—were subsequently flooded as authorities decided to sacrifice the regions as a “flood storage zone.” A large number of people were trapped in fast-rising floodwaters as many people were given only two hours to evacuate on Aug. 1 or didn’t receive the evacuation order. Villages, towns, and vast farmlands were quickly submerged by the floodwaters.Li Guoying, China’s water resources minister, on Aug. 1 publicly required “ensuring the absolute safety of capital Beijing, Daxing International Airport, and Xiong’an New Area against the flood.” Ni Yuefeng, head of Hebei Province, pledged on state media on Aug. 2 that in order to reduce the pressure on Beijing’s flood controls, the province would resolutely be the “moat” for the capital. The official statements sparked public anger.A staff member from the Zhuozhou Emergency Management Bureau conceded on July 31 that flood discharge from Beijing was one of the reasons for the significant rise in water levels in the regional city, mainland Chinese outlet Southern Weekend reported on Aug. 1.That triggered mass public outrage and protest.
At least 60 fatalities, 37 missing as severe floods continue affecting China - At least 60 people have lost their lives and 37 others remain missing in eastern China due to widespread floods caused by heavy rains over the past 10 days. The missing people include 51 in Beijing, 28 in Hebei, 15 in Jilin, and 3 in Fujian, more than 200 000 houses have been damaged, and more than 15 000 ha (37 065 acres) of cropland have been flooded. China’s finance ministry announced a significant allocation of 732 million yuan (approximately $102.3 million USD) for disaster relief, targeting the revival of agricultural production impacted by recent floods. The joint initiative by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will distribute these funds across nine provincial regions, including Hebei and Fujian, and to the Beidahuang Group, a key agricultural conglomerate. The financial support is intended for urgent flood control efforts, disaster relief activities, and to bolster post-disaster agricultural operations. Subsidies are earmarked for essentials like seeds and fertilizers, as well as repairs to damaged agricultural facilities. This move comes in the wake of the devastation caused by Typhoon “Doksuri,” which resulted in record-breaking rains in northern China, leading to extensive crop damage and urban flooding. During the four days from July 29 to August 2, three stations in western Beijing recorded rainfall exceeding 1 000 mm (39.37 inches), and 51 stations more than 700 mm (27.56 inches), reaching 1 to 1.5 times the annual rainfall in Beijing.
China Faces Early Attack From Crop Pests After Extreme Weather-- China’s farmers are facing an earlier than expected assault on their crops this year as extreme weather accelerates the spread and growth of destructive diseases and pests such as the dreaded fall armyworm. At risk are key crops including corn and rice, a globally important food staple that’s already seeing threats to supply elsewhere in Asia. China is the world’s biggest producer and importer of the grain that feeds billions. Plant pests that ravage crops are becoming more destructive and posing a bigger threat to the world’s food security due to climate change, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization, a UN agency. China’s government said heavy rains and winds, including those whipped up recently by deadly Typhoon Doksuri, have helped with the migration of insects and spread of disease. Insects that devour rice paddies and corn fields have appeared earlier in major growing regions in China’s north and south this year, according to a unit of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Along with the recent rains and flooding, warmer weather has also aided the spread of pests. “More extreme weather events, brought on by climate change, has a significant impact on migration and occurrence of crop diseases and insects,” said Hu Gao, a professor at Nanjing Agricultural University. “It’s getting harder to predict, as the incursion has become a bit irregular.” Hu’s key focus is the planthopper and leaf roller, two common invaders of rice paddies. He says the occurrence of the insects in southern China — where most of the nation’s crop is grown — is more severe than the past few years, although he added that the impact on production is so far limited. Any significant damage to rice output would likely place additional strain on the global market should China need to import more. Prices in Asia jumped to the highest level in almost 15 years this week on supply issues. Each year, plant diseases cost the global economy over $220 billion and insects at least $70 billion, according to the FAO. As much as 40% of the world’s crops are lost to plant pests, the UN agency said. Fall armyworm has been detected in 20 provinces in China so far in 2023, and has appeared in the nation’s major growing region in the north earlier than previous years, the government said. However, state-run Beijing News reported that control measures have prevented most of the insects from crossing the Yangtze river, reducing the impact on crops. Corn rust, a fungal pathogen that can kill plants, is also causing headaches. “It just started to emerge,” said Song Quanyong, a farmer in the central province of Henan. “In previous years, it would come much later, near harvest time. All I can do is spray some pesticide and try to control its spread. Fall armyworm is here too, but not much.” The crop in Henan is typically harvested around October, meaning the earlier arrival of corn rust leaves plants more susceptible to damage. The province accounted for almost 8% of the national harvest in 2021.
Severe flooding kills three in Slovenia after one month’s worth of rain in 10 hours - At least three people have died in Slovenia due to severe flooding after more than a month’s worth of rain fell in just 10 hours on August 4, 2023. The catastrophic event caused evacuations, cut off roads, flooded buildings, and prompted the prime minister to describe the situation as ‘catastrophic.’ The floods could be the biggest since Slovenia’s independence in 1991. Severe flooding resulted in at least three fatalities in Slovenia on August 4, 2023, after parts of the country recorded more than 200 mm (8 inches) of rainfall in just 10 hours — which is more than the region registers during the entire month of August. The country’s environment agency issued the highest “red alert” — leading to flood alert sirens sounding off in major cities like Ljubljana, Maribor, and Celje. Around 4 000 people, approximately one-tenth of Celje’s population, were ordered to evacuate as the Savinja River overflowed its banks. Upstream in Ljubno, the same river caused landslides and swept away houses. Tragically, two foreign tourists and a Slovenian woman died as a result of the storm, with the circumstances of their deaths still under investigation. Prime Minister Robert Golob referred to the flooding as a record event, possibly the largest since Slovenia’s independence. The situation prompted him to close key freeways and rail lines that connect Ljubljana with the northern part of the country, rendering some villages inaccessible. Power cuts affected 16 000 households, and bridges and several homes were damaged. Defence Minister Marjan Sarec highlighted the seriousness of the situation, and the army joined rescue and fire teams to provide aid. Road blockages and landslides further impeded access to central towns such as Skofja Loka, where over 100 buildings were flooded, including a sports hall. Helicopters were deployed for evacuations, and the Administration for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief registered over 1 000 weather-related incidents within a 12-hour period. The heavy rainfall also extended to parts of southern Austria, with emergency services working diligently in the districts of Carinthia, Styria, and southern Burgenland. In the southern Carinthian village of Sankt Paul im Lavanttal, residents were urged to seek high ground and avoid basements and bridges. The Völkermarkt district, near the border of Slovenia, was particularly affected, leading to disruptions in local roads and the loss of electricity for around 4,000 households on the morning of August 5, 2023.
NATO, EU send aid to Slovenia after devastating floods that killed at least 6 and left many homeless (AP) — The European Union and NATO began sending urgent aid Monday to Slovenia after severe flooding over the weekend affecting two-thirds of the small European country killed at least six people and left hundreds homeless. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg spoke by phone with Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob on Monday, expressing his sympathy and NATO’s strong solidarity with Slovenia, a NATO statement said. On Sunday, Slovenia and Cyprus activated a European Union Civil Protection Mechanism because of the floods in Slovenia and wildfires in Cyprus that have affected those EU states. The EU is sending to Cyprus two Canadair firefighting airplanes from the EU’s Civil Protection Pool stationed in Greece. Greece is also sending 20 tons of liquid retardant via the EU Civil Protection Mechanism. The flooding in Slovenia was the worst in recent history in Slovenia, a country of some 2 million people, according to Slovenian officials. France is sending two excavators with engineering units to Slovenia, while Germany is sending two prefabricated temporary bridges and two excavators with the accompanying staff, the European Commission said. Bulgaria and Croatia have also offered support, including helicopters, excavators, prefabricated bridges and engineering teams. The United States has also deployed staff to Ljubljana to assess the situation and determine urgent humanitarian needs. The German Interior Ministry said it was sending a team from the Federal Agency for Technical Relief to Slovenia. The first team, specialized in rescue, was expected to arrive Monday and additional teams were expected to follow. The floods were caused by torrential rains Friday that caused rivers to swell swiftly and burst into houses, fields, villages and towns. Slovenia’s weather service said a month’s worth of rain fell in less than a day. Entire villages are still under water in Slovenia. Crops have been destroyed and cars stuck in mud. Major highways in parts of Slovenia have been closed. Many bridges have also collapsed. Slovenian authorities warned of danger from possible mudslides and swollen rivers that could overflow at any time, overtaking banks of sandbags placed by emergency teams.
Stormy weather across northern Europe kills at least 1 person, idles ferries and delays flights (AP) — Stormy weather across the Baltic Sea region Monday killed at least one person and caused airport delays, suspended ferry services and a train’s partial derailment.Three people had been taken to hospital in Sweden when two of the train’s passenger cars went off the tracks in Hudiksvall, a town 280 kilometers (174 miles) north of Stockholm, police said.The derailment happened because ”the embankment has been undermined by the heavy rain and landslides,“ they said, adding that the extent of their injuries is unclear. There had been 120 people on the train, Swedish media said.Ferries linking Poland to Sweden, two German islands to mainland Germany and Norway to Denmark remained in harbor. Ferries and water taxis to the German islands of Hiddensee and Ruegen were canceled for Monday and Tuesday morning, and vacationers were asked to change their travels plans to Wednesday.In Lithuania, a 50-year old woman was killed by falling trees near the Latvian border. The area was badly damaged with numerous roofs ripped off, and thousands remained without electricity.In the neigboring Baltic country of Latvia, television reported trees getting knocked over in wind gusts of up to 108 kph (67 mph), and meteorologists also reported golf ball-sized hail in Apgulde, a village southwest of Riga, the capital.The Baltic News Service said the storm caused extensive damage in the nearby Dobele region. Posts on social media showed one of the affected properties was a park in Tervete, a popular recreational area that includes a children’s play area inspired by Latvian fairy tales. The park will remain closed until next week.Heavy rain and hail was also reported in Estonia, the third Baltic country.
Widespread floods from Glomma River impact downstream regions after dam collapse, Norway - Heavy rains and strong winds affecting parts of Norway since August 6, 2023, caused widespread flooding, landslides, and a partial collapse of the Braskereidfoss power dam on the Glomma River. The country reportedly suffered the heaviest rains in 25 years. In the aftermath of the heavy rains and strong winds brought by a low pressure system named Hans, central-southern Norway witnessed a series of cascading events. Over 5 000 individuals were officially evacuated from their homes, and there are suggestions that many more may have self-evacuated due to the immediate threat. The situation was further compounded when the Braskereidfoss power dam on the Glomma River in Innlandet County partially gave way on August 9. This collapse has been attributed to the relentless rain and has subsequently caused significant flooding in the downstream regions. Authorities initially considered blowing up part of the dam in an attempt to prevent communities downstream from being inundated by using a limited, controlled blast to release pressure on the dam. However, that proposal was scrapped after water later broke through the structure, police spokesman Fredrik Thomson told reporters. The dam’s generators stopped working early Wednesday after a power grid failure, plant operator Hafslund Eco said in a statement. According to official reports, an automatic system that should have opened the floodgates to release water failed. Rapidly rising water then spilled over the dam and into the power station itself, which caused major damage. All people — at least 1 000 — living close to the river in the area were evacuated before the dam began to fail. Multiple reports indicate that several landslides occurred during the rain event, disrupting transportation and daily life. As a consequence, a plethora of roads have been deemed impassable and numerous train routes in vast sections of southern Norway are no longer operational. Given the severity of the situation, the Copernicus Emergency Management Service was swiftly activated on August 8 in rapid mapping mode (designated EMSR683) with the goal of providing an accurate damage assessment. According to the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, unprecedented flood levels have been observed at multiple locations in the Drammensvassdraget basin, situated west of Oslo. Erik Hojgard-Olsen, a meteorologist from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, expressed to Aftonbladet that the current weather patterns are unusual for the season. “Experiencing a low-pressure system like Hans, which has consistently delivered heavy rainfall over consecutive days, is certainly extraordinary, particularly for a summer month,” he noted. Weather predictions for the immediate future also contribute to these concerns. Over the upcoming 48-hour period, meteorologists expect southern Norway to receive moderate rainfall. Complementary to this, a series of weather warnings have been released, with red and orange alerts specifically highlighting potential flooding and a yellow warning flagging possible landslide events, all primarily concentrated in the southern regions of the country.
Monsoon rainfall in India results in 42 fatalities in just 24 hours - Monsoon rains in India, as of August 10, 2023, have led to the death of 42 individuals in the span of 24 hours, with Chhattisgarh facing the brunt of the fatalities. National Emergency Response Centre (NDMI) data indicates a rising toll since April 2023. Starting from April 2023, monsoon rains in India have resulted in a tragic tally of 1 909 fatalities, with 92 persons reported missing and another 1 509 injured. More than 86 139 houses have suffered damage throughout the nation during this period. The past 24 hours saw 25 deaths in Chhattisgarh, six in Uttarakhand, four in Himachal Pradesh, three in Uttar Pradesh, two in Madhya Pradesh, and one death each in Kerala and Gujarat. 235 people have been evacuated and 556 homes damaged. Furthermore, meteorological departments warn of persistent rain threats over the next 24 hours, particularly in northern and eastern regions of India. Northeastern India, in particular, is predicted to experience very heavy rainfall, elevating concerns for potential further damages and casualties.
Heavy monsoon rains cause deadly landslides and floods in Nepal - Heavy rainfall since the beginning of August has led to landslides and floods across Nepal, resulting in 11 deaths, with 10 attributed to landslides and one to flooding. This severe weather has also left five people missing and 70 families affected. Heavy rainfall events in August have had a considerable impact on Nepal, causing significant disruptions, especially in areas affected by landslides and floods. This information is according to the Disaster Risk Reduction Portal of Nepal (DRR).The DRR reports further detail that out of the 11 casualties, 10 were due to landslide events, whereas one was a direct result of the flooding. The situation remains alarming, with five individuals still unaccounted for after recent landslides. These severe weather incidents have also resulted in 14 people sustaining injuries.The extent of the impact is also felt by many families, with the DRR revealing that a total of 70 families have been affected by these adverse weather conditions. These families now grapple with the aftermath of floods, landslides, and other severe weather events that have transpired since the start of the month.For those in the region, caution is still advised. Weather forecasts anticipate light to moderate rainfall to persist across most parts of Nepal for the forthcoming 24 hours. While it might not seem as heavy as the previous rains, residents are advised to stay alert and safe, given the already saturated ground conditions that heighten the risk of additional landslides and floods.The death toll from the annual monsoon rains is now 38. The number of missing people rose to 33.
Landslides and flooding ravage Vietnam’s northern region, leaving multiple casualties - In the northern mountainous region of Vietnam, devastating floods and landslides, sparked by persistent heavy rains since August 2, have claimed 12 lives, injured five, and displaced close to 3 000 residents as of August 8. The floods affected 30 000 people, with 2 940 forced to evacuate. At least 12 individuals have lost their lives, while five others sustained injuries, and an additional three are currently unaccounted for, as per DG ECHO. In a bid to manage the escalating crisis, Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, on August 8, made an impassioned appeal to officials, emphasizing the urgent need to alleviate the catastrophic effects of the landslides and floods. Amid the unfolding calamity, the Vietnam Red Cross Society has actively sprung into action, offering immediate sustenance and essential supplies to 109 adversely affected households, showcasing their commitment to humanitarian aid.
Strong storm kills 2 people and leaves 1.1 million without power in eastern US (AP) — At least two people died, thousands of U.S. flights were canceled or delayed, and more than 1.1 million homes and businesses lost power Monday as severe storms, including hail and lightning, moved through the eastern U.S.The National Weather Service issued a tornado watch for the greater D.C. area, lasting until 9 p.m. A special Weather Service statement warned, “There is a significant threat for damaging and locally destructive hurricane-force winds, along with the potential for large hail and tornadoes, even strong tornadoes.”The storms’ spread was massive, with tornado watches and warnings posted across 10 states from Tennessee to New York. The National Weather Service said more than 29.5 million people were under a tornado watch Monday afternoon.In Anderson, South Carolina, a 15-year-old boy who arrived at his grandparent’s house during the storm was struck and killed when a tree fell on him as he got out of a car, according to the Anderson County Office of the Coroner. In Florence, Alabama, police said a 28-year-old man was struck by lightning and died, WAAY-TV reported. By Monday night, more than 2,600 U.S. flights had been canceled and nearly 7,900 delayed, according to flight tracking service FlightAware. Many cancellations were at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, which was digging out from disruptions caused by Sunday storms. The Federal Aviation Administration said it was rerouting planes around storms heading to the East Coast. The Office of Personnel Management announced Monday that all non-emergency employees would have to depart before 3 p.m., when all federal offices closed.“This does look to be one of the most impactful severe weather events across the Mid-Atlantic that we have had in some time,” National Weather Service meteorologist Chris Strong said in a Facebook live briefing.The storms were expected to strike major population areas in late afternoon and early evening, prompting federal workers to be sent home early so they wouldn’t be in their cars amid wind, hail and tornadoes.Strong advised residents: “Have yourself in a strong shelter. Be at home or be at work.”
Deadly severe weather outbreak knocks out power to 1 million after hurricane-force winds wreak havoc on East (6 videos)- A severe weather outbreak has killed one person and knocked out power to more than 1 million customers across the eastern U.S. on Monday. Officials say that a 28-year-old man was killed after being struck by lightning from passing storms in Florence, Alabama, on Monday evening. Police say the man was working outside at the Florence Industrial Park when storms hit. More than 130 million Americans across the region were at risk of seeing the severe weather outbreak as powerful thunderstorms produced hurricane-force wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes across the region. Flooding was reported in West Virginia. A video shared by the Morgantown Fire Department shows quick-moving water covering roads. Video taken in Hagerstown, Maryland, on Interstate 70 shows more downpours reducing visibility across the highway. "Don't go shopping today" warns one driver in Parkersburg, West Virginia. The FOX Weather Center tracked storms dumping rain at 4 to 5 inches per hour. In North Carolina, one person was injured after being struck by lightning in the city of Vale. Along with the torrential rain and lightning, destructive winds were reported across the East. Several people were injured after strong winds downed trees in New York and Maryland. Just west of D.C., forecasters warned of storms packing 80 mph winds. The destructive winds approached the area just before 5:30 p.m. ET. At DeKalb-Peachtree Airport in Georgia, winds were tracked at 71 mph as they approached the airport. This possible tornado was in Harford, New York. FOX Weather Winter Storm Specialist said that the position matches radar signatures that indicate a tornado but the NWS in Binghamton will survey damage and make a determination. Tornado Warnings were also issued as rotating thunderstorms moved through Tennessee and New York. And to round out all the severe weather threats, baseball-size hail fell in parts of Virginia as storms moved through.
Confirmed tornado causes major damage in Perry area -- (video) Emergency crews reported heavy damage from a confirmed tornado in the Perry area Friday evening. Perry Area Fire Rescue said multiple emergency service agencies were assessing damage and clearing debris in the city of Perry after the twister touched down around 8 p.m., leaving heavy damage in its wake. The National Weather Service confirmed that a tornado caused the damage Friday night. A survey crew will head to the area and look over the damage this weekend to make a determination on the tornado's strength. Storm Tracker 12 Meteorologist Kevin Goff said photos of the damage indicate an EF-1 tornado touched down, which carries maximum wind speeds of 86 to 110 mph. There were numerous reports of large trees down and damage to structures. However, no injuries had been reported due to the storm by Friday night. Perry firefighters reported seeing a tornado touch down near the city's Department of Public Works garage, which sustained damage. Rick Louis of Perry Area Fire Rescue said the hardest hit areas include City Hall, the Department of Public Works garage, Polly Street west of Main Street and a park pavilion, which collapsed. The tornado cut a path through the downtown area and south of the railroad tracks. Louis said some businesses in Perry sustained damage and numerous large trees got ripped out of the ground. Perry Mayor Sue Hammond said half of the city was without electricity on Friday evening after the storms. "We have asked the public to please stay off the streets do downed power lines and trees. We're asking them to stay in and stay safe," Hammond said. Consumers Energy reported nearly 675 customers without power along M-52 south of I-69 around Perry as of 9:30 p.m. Hammond said the power outages affected the city's sewer lift stations, which were running on backup power. "We're also asking the city of Perry residents to limit their sewer usage due to power outages and pumping station stress," she said. "We're having to use generators, which will work, but we'd like to limit their use." Louis said emergency crews were working to clear trees and storm debris from roadways so they could reopen to traffic. That would allow Consumers Energy trucks to access the city and begin working to restore power.
NOAA Adjusts Hurricane Season Prediction to ‘Above-Normal’ - —NOAA forecasters are upping their expectations for the 2023 hurricane season, based on record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday that forecasters have increased the likelihood of an above-normal season to 60 percent. The forecasters now expect 14 to 21 named storms, including six to 11 hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes of category 3, 4 or 5 strength, packing sustained winds of 111 miles an hour or more.In May the forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center had projected a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and thought a near-normal season was more likely, with 12 to 17 named storms. They said Thursday the revised forecast, issued routinely in August near the heart of the season, was based on Atlantic sea surface temperatures that have not been seen since record-keeping began in 1950, said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The forecast comes as the recovery continues for many in Florida from an unprecedented season last year that included the one-two punch of hurricanes Ian and Nicole. After flattening swaths of southwest Florida in September, Ian left widespread flooding across the state’s interior, causing $113 billion in damage and 156 deaths. The hurricane ranks as the third-costliest hurricane in U.S. history after Katrina in 2005 and Harvey in 2017, according to NOAA. Nicole, a rare November hurricane, inundated areas of Florida that Ian had spared.Researchers at Stony Brook University in New York and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California concluded that climate change increased Ian’s rainfall rates by more than 10 percent. Some areas were hammered by more than 20 inches of rain. Hurricane Fiona, another September storm, caused devastating flooding in Puerto Rico. This year forecasters entered the season with more uncertainty than normal because of an unusual confluence of factors. Warmer Atlantic sea surface temperature tend to enhance hurricane activity, but a developing El Niño was expected to temper that activity. An El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that begins with warm water in the Pacific Ocean and affects weather patterns worldwide. Shifts in air currents can lead to milder, wetter winters in the U.S. and droughts in Australia and India. The Pacific gets more hurricanes, and the Atlantic gets fewer. Rosencrans said Thursday that many of the forecasts in May did not anticipate the continuation of the unprecedented Atlantic sea surface temperatures. He also said the changes associated with the El Niño appeared to be emerging later than expected, and that some models do not show the impacts developing until September.
A year on, the devastating long-term effects of Pakistan’s floods are revealed -- A year after Pakistan’s worst floods in living memory, a report by Islamic Relief Worldwide has revealed the devastating long-term impact on people, especially children, and argued that rich nations must compensate those countries most affected by the climate emergency.Researchers from Islamic Relief who talked to people in the flood-affected areas found 40% of the children they surveyed had stunted growth and 25% were underweight as families struggle to access food and healthcare. About 80% of mothers reported sickness among children, with outbreaks of diarrhoea, malaria and dengue fever increasing.Women and girls reported being particularly affected, with pregnant women still struggling to access health services and girls most likely to be underweight. Many of the women displaced by the flooding do not have the privacy to breastfeed, meaning poorer health for their babies.The flooding in Pakistan in August and September 2022 – described by UN secretary general António Guterres as a “monsoon on steroids” – led to the deaths of more than 1,700 people and 33 million losing their homes, land or jobs. About 800,000 cattle and other livestock perished and 28,000 schools and health clinics were damaged.Speaking at the launch of the report in Islamabad, Waseem Ahmad, chief executive of Islamic Relief Worldwide, stated: “No amount of financial aid can compensate those who have lost loved ones and seen their homes and everything they own destroyed. But we need to see climate justice, where the biggest polluters pay for the damage and destruction caused by climate change. A team of 26 researchers from 20 institutions who studied last year’s floods concluded that the 60-day rainfall across the region was about 50% more intense than it would have been under unchanged climatic conditions. “As climate-related catastrophes increase, it is the poorest and most vulnerable people who bear the brunt of the suffering. They are the ones most likely to live in fragile homes and least likely to have savings to fall back on, or assets to sell, or any kind of ‘Plan B’ when floods hit and crops and livestock are wiped out.”
Public interest vs. private homes: Climate change and erosion fuel disputes along Lake Michigan's shoreline - Steve Coombs' lakefront home used to quake when waves crashed along Ogden Dunes' receding shoreline. "At one point, my wife said, 'Should we just move out? Should we just go to a hotel?' I mean, it's very unnerving," he recalled. But fleeing the "biggest asset that we own" wasn't an option for Coombs, who said he enjoyed 60 yards of sand between his home and the lake when he bought it a decade ago."There are some people who say, 'Well, you folks built houses where they shouldn't have been built,' but that's not the case," Coombs said. "Years ago, there was all kinds of shoreline and sand here. In Ogden Dunes, we have houses over 100 years old."Today, an international port impedes sand flow to Ogden Dunes' shore. That, combined with recent near-record high water levels, intense storms and dwindling ice coverage, has caused severe erosion.Without stretches of sand to separate their homes from the lake, residents in the Indiana town of 1,200 are seeking to build revetments, or stone retaining walls that break the waves. However, environmentalists oppose these structures, citing the long-term consequences they will have on Lake Michigan's shoreline.It's a battle that involves multiple projects, state and federal officials, a national park, and the expanded application of a legal principle rooted in 16th century British common law.To craft their argument, environmentalists are leaning on the public trust doctrine, which has historically been used to protect navigation and commerce. It requires governments to preserve certain natural resources such as the Lake Michigan shore for public benefit and is likely to become a common legal tool in disputes along the Great Lakes as climate change worsens erosion and courts roll back environmental regulations.The revetments Ogden Dunes wants to build would stop the water from reaching residents' doorsteps in most cases. But, they would also harden the shoreline, hindering the natural wax and wane of beaches, and interrupt the flow of sand to neighboring beaches.In June, Save the Dunes, an environmental organization committed to conserving Indiana's famous sand dunes, cited the public trust doctrine in an administrative appeal against Ogden Dunes' latest revetment project. It accuses the Indiana Department of Natural Resources of prioritizing the interests of a small group of private property owners over those of the public.The revetment will encroach on public beach access, destroy lakefront habitats and cause erosion in the Indiana Dunes National Park, according to the organization. It is asking for the Natural Resources Commission, an autonomous DNR oversight board, to rescind the permit.
Bursting glacial dam in Alaska highlights risks of flooding around the globe (AP) — The gray, two-story home with white trim toppled and slid, crashing into the river below as rushing waters carried off a bobbing chunk of its roof. Next door, a condo building teetered on the edge of the bank, its foundation already having fallen away as erosion undercut it.The destruction came over the weekend as a glacial dam burst in Alaska’s capital, swelling the levels of the Mendenhall River to an unprecedented degree. The bursting of such snow-and-ice dams is a phenomenon called a jökuhlaup, and while it’s relatively little-known in the U.S., researchers say such glacial floods couldthreaten about 15 million people around the world.“We sat down there and were just watching it, and all of a sudden trees started to fall in,” Amanda Arra, whose house continued hanging precariously over the river bank Monday, told the Juneau Empire. “And that’s when I started to get concerned. Tree after tree after tree.”The flooding in Juneau came from a side basin of the awe-inspiring Mendenhall Glacier, which acts as a dam for the rain and melted snow that collect in the basin during the spring and summer. Eventually, the water gushed out from under the glacier and into Mendenhall Lake, from which it flowed down the Mendenhall River.Water released from the basin has caused sporadic flooding since 2011. But typically, the water releases more slowly, over a number of days, said Eran Hood, a University of Alaska Southeast professor of environmental science.Saturday’s event was astonishing because the water gushed so quickly, raising the river’s flows to about 1 1/2 times the highest previously recorded — so much that it washed away sensors that researchers had placed to study the glacial outburst phenomenon.“The flows were just way beyond what anything in the river could withstand,” Hood said.
Even frozen Antarctica is being walloped by climate extremes, scientists find --Even in Antarctica — one of the most remote and desolate places on Earth — scientists say they are finding shattered temperature records and an increase in the size and number of wacky weather events.The southernmost continent is not isolated from the extreme weather associated with human-caused climate change, according to a new paper in Frontiers in Environmental Science that tries to make a coherent picture of a place that has been a climate change oddball. Its western end and especially its peninsula have seen dramatic ice sheet melt that threatens massive sea level rises over the next few centuries, while the eastern side has at times gained ice. One western glacier is melting so fast that scientists have nicknamed it the Doomsday Glacier and there’s an international effort trying to figure out what’s happening to it. And Antarctic sea ice veered from record high to shocking amounts far lower than ever seen.What follows if the trend continues, a likely result if humans fail to curb emissions, will be a cascade of consequences from disappearing coastlines to increased global warming hastened by dramatic losses of a major source of sunlight-reflecting ice. That’s something scientists have long been watching and are even more concerned about now.Siegert said he and his team wanted to understand more about the causes of extreme events, and whether more of those events would happen as a result of burning fossil fuels, so the team synthesized research on a wide range of topics including atmosphere and weather patterns, sea ice, land ice and ice shelves and marine and land biology. The study found climate change extremes are getting worse in a place that once seemed slightly shielded from global warming’s wildness. The continent “is not a static giant frozen in time,” they said, but instead feels climate change’s wrath and extremes “sporadically and unpredictably.”Anna Hogg, a co-author on the paper and professor at the University of Leeds, said that their work illustrates complex and connected changes between the ice, ocean and air. “Once you’ve made a big change, it can then be really hard to sort of turn that around,” she said.
How climate change might trigger more earthquakes and volcanic eruptions - Earth's climate is changing rapidly. In some areas, escalating temperatures are increasing the frequency and likelihood of wildfires and drought. In others, they are making downpours and storms more intense or accelerating the pace of glacial melting.The past month is a stark illustration of exactly this. Parts of Europe and Canadaare being devastated by wildfires, while Beijing has recorded its heaviest rainfall in at least 140 years. Looking back further, between 2000 and 2019 the world's glaciers lost around 267 gigatonnes of iceper year. Melting glaciers contribute to rising sea levels (currently rising by about3.3mm per year) and more coastal hazards such as flooding and erosion. But research suggests that our changing climate may not solely influence hazards at the Earth's surface. Climate change—and specifically rising rainfall rates and glacial melting—could also exacerbate dangers beneath the Earth's surface, such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Drought in Europe and North America has received a lot of recent media coverage. But the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report in 2021 revealed that average rainfall has actually increased in many world regions since 1950. A warmer atmosphere can retain more water vapor, subsequently leading to higher levels of precipitation. Interestingly, geologists have long identified a relationship between rainfall rates and seismic activity. In the Himalayas, for example, the frequency of earthquakes is influenced by the annual rainfall cycle of the summer monsoon season. Research reveals that 48% of Himalayan earthquakes strike during the drier pre-monsoon months of March, April and May, while just 16% occur in the monsoon season.During the summer monsoon season, the weight of up to 4 meters of rainfall compresses the crust both vertically and horizontally, stabilizing it. When this water disappears in the winter, the effective "rebound" destabilizes the region and increases the number of earthquakes that occur.Climate change could intensify this phenomenon. Climate models project that the intensity of monsoon rainfall in southern Asia will increase in the future as a result of climate change. This could feasibly enhance the winter rebound and cause more seismic events.The impact of water's weight on the Earth's crust goes beyond just precipitation; it extends to glacial ice as well. As the last ice age came to an end roughly 10,000 years ago, the thawing of heavy glacial ice masses caused parts of the Earth's crust to rebound upwards. This process, called isostatic rebound, is evidenced by raised beaches in Scotland—some of which are up to 45 meters above current sea level. Evidence from Scandinavia suggests that such uplift, coupled with the destabilization of the region's tectonics, triggered numerous earthquake events between 11,000 and 7,000 years ago. Some of these earthquakes even exceeded a magnitude of 8.0 which indicates severe destruction and loss of life. The concern is that the continued melting of glacial ice today could result in similar effects elsewhere. Research has also found a correlation between glacial-load changes on the Earth's crust and the occurrence of volcanic activity. Approximately 5,500–4,500 years ago, Earth's climate briefly cooled and glaciers began to expand in Iceland. Analysis of volcanic ash deposits spread throughout Europe suggest that volcanic activity in Iceland markedly reduced during this period.There was a subsequent increase in volcanic activity following the end of this cool period, albeit with a delay of several hundred years.This phenomenon can be explained by the weight of glaciers compressing both the Earth's crust and the underlying mantle (the mostly solid bulk of Earth's interior). This kept the material that makes up the mantle under higher pressure, preventing it from melting and forming the magma required for volcanic eruptions.
Lava overflows after major explosion at Stromboli volcano, Italy - A major explosion took place at Stromboli’s Northern crater at 19:06 UTC on August 8, 2023, leading to lava overflows on the outer slope. The eruption came with a sharp spike in tremor, and its aftermath showed a decrease in spattering activity from the North crater area. Following a major eruption from Stromboli’s Northern crater area on August 8, 2023, incandescent lava bombs and lapilli were catapulted to the upper Sciara del Fuoco. This powerful eruption resulted in a minimum of two lava overflows onto the mountain’s outer slope. In conjunction with the onset of the eruption, a sharp rise in seismic tremor was observed at 19:05 UTC, which subsequently peaked at high amplitude tremor values. The intensity of the eruption can be deduced from the progressive decrease in spattering activity observed during the night of August 9. Moreover, there was a noted halt and eventual cooling of the lava flow that had commenced after the powerful explosion. Intense Strombolian activity was reported from both the North and South Central crater areas on August 9. This activity was interspersed with sporadic instances where products fell outside the crater terrace. The accompanying seismic tremor maintained a medium intensity. However, it was still notably higher than the tremor that preceded the major explosion on August 8. Furthermore, there was a slight uptick in the occurrence rate and magnitude of explosion-quakes compared to the recordings before the explosion. From a structural perspective, no variations in the deformation signals were measured by high-frequency and clinometric GNSS networks. On the morning of August 12, at approximately 08:00 UTC, INGV’s Etna Observatory reported the formation of a small lava flow, originating from one of the mouths of the North crateric area. Positioned atop the Sciara del Fire, this lava stream has since expanded, spanning a length between 30 – 50 m (98.4 – 164 feet). Concurrently, weak spattering activity was observed from the same mouth fueling the flow.
Carbon dioxide, not water, triggers explosive basaltic volcanoes --Geoscientists have long thought that water—along with shallow magma stored in Earth's crust—drives volcanoes to erupt. Now, thanks to newly developed research tools at Cornell, scientists have learned that gaseous carbon dioxide can trigger explosive eruptions.A new model suggests that basaltic volcanoes, typically located on the interior of tectonic plates, are fed by a deep magma within the mantle, stored about 20 to 30 kilometers below the Earth's surface.The research, which offers a clearer picture of our planet's deep internal dynamics and composition, with implications for improving volcanic-hazards planning, is published August 7, 2023 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences."We used to think all the action happened in the crust," said senior author Esteban Gazel, the Charles N. Mellowes Professor in Engineering in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, in Cornell Engineering. "Our data implies the magma comes directly from the mantle—passing fast through the crust—driven by the exsolution (the process phase of separating gas from liquid) of carbon dioxide."This completely changes the paradigm of how these eruptions happen," Gazel said. "All volcanic models had been dominated by water as the main eruption driver, but water has little to do with these volcanoes. It's carbon dioxide that brings this magma from the deep Earth."
Long-duration X1.6 solar flare erupts from Region 3386; S1 - Minor radiation storm - A major, long-duration solar flare measuring X1.6 erupted from Active Region 3386 (beta-delta) at 22:21 UTC on August 5, 2023. The event started at 21:45 and ended at 22:44 UTC. The flare was associated with a Type II radio emission (estimated velocity 772 km/s), suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced during the event. The associated CME is not expected to be Earth-directed. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the Pacific Ocean, eastern Canada and parts of United States at the time of the flare. The same region was also responsible for a long-duration M1.6 solar flare at 07:18 UTC. A Type II radio emission (with an estimated velocity of 572 km/s) was associated with this event, too. Coinciding with this flare was an approximate 19-degree filament eruption centered near S05W62. An associated CME became visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 07:00 UTC. The CME is expected to result in a glancing blow arrival to Earth early to midday on August 8. Other notable activity during the day includes an M2.1 solar flare observed at 09:36 UTC from Region 3380, as well as several C-class flares from Region 3387.
Major X1.5 solar flare erupts from Region 3386 - A major solar flare measuring X1.5 erupted from the recently departed Active Region 3386 at 20:46 UTC on August 7, 2023. The event started at 20:30 and ended at 21:18 UTC. A Type II Radio emission with an estimated velocity of 386 km/s was associated with the event, suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. However, due to the location of this region, the CME is not expected to be Earth-directed. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the Pacific Ocean, Canada, the United States, and Central America. This is the second X-class solar flare since August 5th X1.6 at 22:21 UTC.
Mars is spinning faster and its days are getting shorter, NASA says - The rotation of Mars is exhibiting an unusual acceleration each year, resulting in a slight reduction in the length of a Martian day, data from NASA revealed. The study, recently published in the journal Nature, revealed that Mars is experiencing an acceleration in its axial rotation of around four milliarcseconds annually. This leads to a gradual reduction in the length of a Martian day by a small fraction of a millisecond each year, NASA’s InSight Mars lander suggested. Researchers, including those affiliated with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, are uncertain about the exact cause behind the gradual increase in the rotation speed of Mars. However, they have formulated some hypotheses around the topic. The study involved scientists conducting the most accurate measurements ever of Mars’ rotation, while also identifying the planet’s wobbling motion caused by the movement of its molten metal core. The research speculates that elements like the accumulation of ice on Mars’ polar caps or the phenomenon of post-glacial rebound, where landmasses elevate after being submerged under ice, might be responsible for this acceleration in the planet’s rotation. NASA draws a parallel between this alteration in rotation speed and the analogy of an ice skater adjusting their spin by extending or retracting their arms.
Climate protection: Land use changes cause the carbon sink to decline --Forests can bind large amounts of carbon on the land surface. In this way, they decisively contribute to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions. For some areas, however, data are still lacking. In Eastern Europe, in particular, the network of installed measurement stations is very loose, such that little has been known about carbon flows and their drivers there."But Eastern European forests have a great potential as a long-term carbon sink," says Karina Winkler from the Atmospheric Environmental Research Department of the Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), KIT's Campus Alpine in Garmisch-Partenkirchen. "Political upheavals in Eastern Europe, however, have caused big changes of land use. Moreover, climate change there increasingly affects the forests. This unique interaction of socioeconomic and climatic factors influences the carbon sinks." Researchers of IMK-IFU's Land Use Change & Climate Group, together with researchers from other European research institutions, have now recalculated the carbon sinks in Eastern Europe. The area studied covers 13 countries, from Poland in the West to the Russian Ural Mountains in the East, from Estonia in the North to Rumania in the South. Calculations are based on different data sources, such as models, satellite-based biomass estimates, forest inventories, and national statistics. The research is published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment."From the datasets, we concluded that Eastern Europe stored most of Europe's carbon from 2010 to 2019," Winkler says. Comparison of carbon balances revealed that the land surface in Eastern Europe bound about 410 million tons of carbon in biomass every year. This corresponds to about 78% of the carbon sink of entire Europe. The biggest carbon sinks can be found in border region of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia, in the southern Ural Mountains, and on the Kola peninsula. However, data also show that carbon absorption in Eastern Europe with time was anything but constant and has even declined. The Eastern European carbon sink is shrinking. To determine the causes, researchers compared the trends of carbon changes with factors of land use, such as land conversion for agriculture, timber extraction, and share of abandoned agricultural areas, as well as withenvironmental factors, such as temperature, precipitation, soil humidity, and carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen concentrations in the atmosphere. They found that environmental impacts, such as the change in soil humidity, have a big influence on the carbon balance. Still, spatial patterns of the carbon sink in Eastern Europe can be explained mainly by land use changes. From 2010 to 2019, timber extraction had the biggest influence on the land-based carbon sink in the region. Data analysis suggests that an increase in timber extraction in West Russia and reduced forest growth on former agricultural areas caused the carbon sink in Eastern Europe to decline between 2010 and 2019.
Many disapprove of Biden’s handling of climate, Post-UMD poll finds - Nearly one year after President Biden enacted a sprawling package to combat harmful emissions and boost clean energy, his administration is struggling to demonstrate the law’s value to weary voters — and stave off a widening array of new political threats. Most Americans — 57 percent — disapprove of Biden’s handling of climate change, according to a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll, which also finds that few adults say they know a good amount or great deal about the Inflation Reduction Act, a law that includes massive new investments in response to global warming. The low approval and lack of public awareness underscore Biden’s top challenge entering the 2024 presidential race, as he tries to sell an unknowing electorate on an agenda that — in the eyes of the White House — has created jobs, boosted manufacturing and lowered costs for families. The Inflation Reduction Act couples the largest-ever tranche of climate funding with new government programs that aim to lower prescription drug costs for seniors and pursue unpaid federal taxes. Democrats adopted the spending package last August, overcoming more than a year of fierce bickering inside their own ranks — and the staunch, unanimous objections of their Republicans foes. With the work to implement the sprawling law now underway, the White House has sought to emphasize its early economic returns. That includes more than $110 billion in new investments to expand clean energy technology and manufacturing, according to data released separately by the administration on Monday, which tallied private-sector commitments announced in the 11 months since Biden signed the measure. But the president’s pitch to sell these and other achievements to the public often has not resonated. Generally, voters today appear to have little confidence in either party to respond to global warming, according to the Post-UMD poll. Asked how much they trust Republicans to address climate change, 74 percent say either “not much” or “not at all,” compared with 59 percent who say the same of Democrats.
How Extreme Temperatures Could Melt The U.S. Economy --Extreme heat is costing the United States economy billions of dollars each year. As weather patterns change around the world, heat waves are getting more frequent, more intense, and longer in duration. But many of the buildings and factories that the U.S. workforce spends its days in were not built with extreme heat in mind, and many lack air conditioning entirely, especially in the industrial sector. The result is a massive dip in productivity that is costing the United States billions of dollars on a yearly basis, and that price tage is only going to keep growing. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the frequency of heat waves in U.S. cities has increased steadily over the last 70 years, from two per year in the 1960s, to six per year this decade, while the duration of those heat waves has also increased by about one day on average. The season of heat waves has also increased significantly, with a window now 49 days longer than the heatwave season of the ‘60s. “ Timing can matter, as heat waves that occur earlier in the spring or later in the fall can catch people off-guard and increase exposure to the health risks associated with heat waves,” says the EPA. And while the heat waves of the dust bowl era of the 1930s remain the most intense in U.S. history, the average intensity is nonetheless statistically significantly higher now than ever before in 46 out of the 50 U.S. cities studied. The result of extreme heat does not just pose serious health and environmental risks, it also causes considerable economic hardship for indoor as well as outdoor industries as workers are less productive, make more mistakes, and are more prone to injury. As temperatures reach 90 degrees Fahrenheit, overall productivity decreases by about a quarter, and when temperatures top 100 degrees, productivity drops off a cliff, plummeting by an incredible 70 percent according to a 2021 study published in the International Journal of Biometeorology. Scientists have only recently begun to track and quantify exactly how the negative correlation between heat and productivity are impacting the economy writ large, but initial results show that the impacts are severe, sweeping, and going to get worse as the climate change continues its warming trajectory. “We’ve known for a very long time that human beings are very sensitive to temperature, and that their performance declines dramatically when exposed to heat, but what we haven’t known until very recently is whether and how those lab responses meaningfully extrapolate to the real-world economy,” R. Jisung Park, environmental and labor economist at the University of Pennsylvania, recently told the New York Times. “And what we are learning is that hotter temperatures appear to muck up the gears of the economy in many more ways than we would have expected.” While worker productivity may seem like a relatively small piece of the cost of climate change when compared to, say, flood damage, wildfires, and rising sea levels, it turns out that overheated laborers have a major impact on the economy as a whole. Data compiled by The Lancet shows that more than 2.5 billion work hours were lost in the United States in 2021 alone over the agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and service sectors as a direct result of heat exposure. Altogether, this lost productivity is costing the U.S. economy about $100 billion per year. While that may sound like a lot, it’s chump change compared to projected figures over the next decades as climate change worsens. By 2050, productivity losses due to heat exposure are expected to reach $500 billion annually. The impact of these economic losses will have a more adverse impact on poor parts of the United States than on more affluent ones. A 2021 study found that poor workers lose up to 5% of their pay on each hot day, while workers in wealthier areas lose less than one percent. “Temperature projections for 2040–50 suggest that earnings impacts may be 95% smaller for US counties in the richest decile relative to the poorest,” the paper found. “Considering the within-country distribution of vulnerability, in addition to exposure, to climate change could substantially change estimated within-country differences between the rich and poor in income losses from climate change.” This unequal impact of climate change on the rich and the poor holds true on an international scale as well. While the U.S. economy stands to lose a lot as a result of climate change, the risk for poor nations is much, much higher. It’s a cruel irony, as the most developed countries have contributed the most greenhouse gasses leading to climate change, but the poorest countries with the fewest historical emissions will suffer most.
Florida schools ‘hijacked by the left’ turn to anti-climate cartoons - Wind and solar power pollute the Earth and make life miserable. Recent global and local heat records reflect natural temperature cycles. And people who champion those beliefs are fighting oppression. These are some of the themes of children’s videos produced by an influential conservative advocacy group. Now, the videos could soon be used in Florida’s classrooms. Florida’s Department of Education has approved the classroom use of material from the Prager University Foundation, which produces videos education experts say distort science, history, gender and other topics. And those researchers fear that the nation’s third-largest state has opened a door that will help spread the videos to classrooms in other states. Florida is the first state to allow PragerU materials in public schools, where teachers will have the option of showing the five- to 10-minute videos in their classrooms. PragerU CEO Marissa Streit says the videos will rebalance schools that have been “hijacked by the left.” “Young kids are being taught climate hysteria,” Streit said in an interview. “They’re hearing that the world is coming to an end, and we think that there needs to be a healthy balance. “The climate is always changing,” Streit added, repeating a climate-denial motto that rejects fossil fuel burning as the cause of continuing record-high temperatures. For now, Florida has approved using PragerU videos only in civics and government for younger children. Some PragerU climate denial videos are classified under non-climate categories, which could enable their use in Florida. Florida’s approval is alarming because children will watch the videos when they are at their most impressionable stage, in kindergarten through 5th grade, said Adrienne McCarthy, a researcher at Kansas State University who tracks PragerU. Extreme ideas are presented as common beliefs in many videos, she said. “They can take these right-wing, controversial ideas and cloak them in seemingly harmless and friendly rhetoric,” McCarthy said. “Then they create this kind of facade of normal conservative beliefs, and they use authoritative figures [in the videos] in order to convince the audience.” “It’s also targeted at the parents themselves, saying that if you want to be a good parent, you should be teaching your kids this,” McCarthy added.
Why Flatulent Cows Matter -- We’ve all heard nonsense about cows presenting a danger to the continuance of life on earth – that methane gas from cow flatulence will bring on climate change faster than John Kerry’s jet.Any thinking person (a sub-species of Homo sapiens that’s in decline but not yet endangered) would agree that the notion that an animal that’s existed in harmony with nature for over two million years could destroy the earth within fourteen years if they’re not exterminated is truly absurd. And yet those whose ability to reason is on the decline are inclined to believe the claim. Presumably, these individuals are the same ones beginning to believe that men can have babies and that an individual can become something he or she is not simply by “identifying” as such.But those of us who see the absurdity in such clearly nonsensical beliefs are disinclined to laugh as we observe that these concepts are being disseminated by globalist governments through a compliant media… and, worse, are being accepted by more than a few people.As a case in point, recently, a publication – Natural News – did a piece entitled, “13 Nations agree to engineer global FAMINE by destroying agriculture, saying that producing food is BAD for the planet.”In that article, they describe a conference led by US Climate Czar John Kerry, in which representatives from thirteen countries are stated to have committed to a diminished cow population worldwide to combat climate change.Well, that conference did take place, and a topic of discussion was methane produced by cows, and thirteen attendees did agree that measures of some sort were needed.But it is not the case that thirteen countries have enacted legislation to eliminate cows.
The U.S. Government Will Pay for Carbon Removal - -- The federal government is preparing to pay companies to remove carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere, launching a first-of-its-kind program that could transform the market for the nascent climate technology, according to people familiar with the matter. The program would mark a global first: Never before has any government paid to remove climate pollution from the atmosphere. The effort will be managed by the Department of Energy and will initially have a budget in the tens of millions, the people said. It will use one of the government’s most potent tools — its power as a customer — to accelerate a technology that experts say is essential to fighting climate change. A spokesperson for the Department of Energy declined to comment. The government has previously used its power as a purchaser to speed up the development of semiconductors, titanium, and — most recently — COVID-19 vaccines. As a piece of industrial strategy, the new program will give the government a lever to shape the market and set standards for the emerging climate technology. But it could also help establish a precedent that carbon dioxide is a waste product that — like other forms of waste — must sometimes be managed by the public. By a rough estimate, the carbon-removal industry must grow thousands of times larger by the end of this decade in order for the world to hit its climate goals. The program, which is expected to be announced soon, was quietly approved by Congress last year. The 2023 appropriations law told the Energy Department to “establish a competitive purchasing pilot program for the purchase of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere or upper hydrosphere.” The department has been working on the program since then. In February, itrequested public input for a plan to provide “demand-side support for clean energy technologies,” including for “carbon dioxide removal.” Carbon removal is a rare bright spot for bipartisanship in climate policy. A handful of Republicans and Democrats — including Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, as well as Senators Chris Coons of Delaware and Maria Cantell of Washington — have co-sponsored bills that would significantly expand the government’s support for removing carbon from the atmosphere. The government has already unveiled powerful programs meant to encourage the industry’s growth. The bipartisan infrastructure law contained $3.5 billion to fund a set of large-scale, industrial facilities that will specialize in scrubbing carbon out of the ambient air. And the Inflation Reduction Act contained a tax credit that compensates companies for every ton of carbon that they inject underground rather than release into the atmosphere. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, humanity needs carbon removal to become much cheaper and more widely deployed if we are to have any hope of keeping global temperatures from rising by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. Even so, the math is daunting. Last year, the world removed several thousand tons of carbon at a cost of about $200 to $2,000 per ton, by one estimate. But by 2050, the world must remove perhaps 10 billion tons of carbon dioxide a year if it hopes to maintain its climate goals. Even if the cost of carbon removal were to fall significantly — to, say, just over $100 a ton — the bill would exceed $1 trillion. That is roughly 1 percent of global GDP in 2023.
At least 13 projects vie for $1.2B in carbon removal - The Biden administration is expected to announce this month the first grant winners of a multi-billion dollar competition to speed the development of a new clean technology industry: massive facilities that remove carbon dioxide from the sky.Those awards for so-called direct air capture hubs could define the future of the nascent DAC industry in the United States as well as the broader CO2 removal sector, experts say. Along with steep emissions cuts, large-scale carbon removal will be essential in the coming decades to avoid dangerously overheating the planet, according to climate scientists.“This is a big deal. It’s going to be a lot of people’s first introduction to large-scale, technological carbon removal deployment,” said Sasha Stashwick, the director of tech policy at Carbon180, an advocacy group that’s involved in a feasibility study for a direct air capture project led by the University of California, Berkeley.“To the extent that we have successful DAC hubs, we’re going to generate a lot of positive momentum, build more durable political coalitions, more communities are going to be interested in hosting a hub, and we’re going to be able to get more policies for the carbon removal sector, not just DAC,” she said. “And vice versa, to the extent that we’re not successful in this deployment, it could really set us back.”DAC facilities use fans, filters, power and piping to pull CO2 from the air and store it permanently underground. Only 27 plants have been commissioned worldwide, the largest of which is capable of removing 4,000 tons of carbon annually, according to the International Energy Agency.DOE has declined to reveal any details about the direct air capture hub proposals under consideration and didn’t respond on the record to questions for this story.But through interviews and public announcements, E&E News has determined that the department received more than a dozen bids to scale up DAC technology — including proposals backed by oil majors, corporate giants and top universities.
Energy Department announces largest-ever investment in 'carbon removal' -- The Energy Department announced Friday it is awarding up to $1.2 billion to two projects to directly remove carbon dioxide from the air in what officials are calling the largest investment in “engineered carbon removal” in history. The process, known as direct air capture, does not yet exist on a meaningful scale and could be a game changer if it did and were economical. “If we deploy this at scale, this technology can help us make serious headway toward our net zero emissions goals while we are still focused on deploying more clean energy at the same time,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in a press conference call. Project Cypress will be built in Calcasieu Parish, Louisiana. South Texas DAC is planned for Kleberg County, Texas. Each claims it will capture up to one million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year initially. A representative of the Texas project said it will scale up to remove 30 million metric tons per year once fully operational. No date was given. Officials said the projects will create 5,000 jobs for local workers and people formerly employed in the fossil fuel industry. Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards, who was also on the conference call, said his state, with its experience in petrochemical manufacturing, density of pipelines and geology, is best suited for projects that tackle carbon. The announcement shows the big bets the Biden administration is making on technologies that capture carbon dioxide from the air and store it underground to address climate change. It’s this gas more than any other that is heating the planet.
IRA at 1: US heralds clean energy manufacturing 'renaissance' | S&P Global Market Intelligence - As the first anniversary of its signing approaches, the Inflation Reduction Act has already spawned a massive effort to reestablish clean energy manufacturing in the US even as the federal government is still working to finish rules for accessing the climate law's voluminous tax credits. Companies have announced plans to build or expand 83 clean energy manufacturing facilities since President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on Aug. 16, 2022, according to data compiled by by the American Clean Power Association (ACP). Those announcements do not include facilities devoted to electric vehicle batteries and components, meaning total new investments disclosed in the past year are even higher. "It's already clear that we're seeing, as a result of the IRA, really a renaissance in American manufacturing," American Council on Renewable Energy President and CEO Gregory Wetstone said. "I don't think in my career I have ever seen a law have greater impact on economic development in this country." The IRA offers tax credits for a range of clean energy resources that will not expire for at least 10 years, part of the Biden administration's efforts to decarbonize the power sector and broader economy. The law also created and extended incentives to produce in the US solar panels, wind turbines and other linchpins of the clean energy transition. Of the new or expanded manufacturing plants announced since the IRA's signing, more than 50 are for solar component production, John Hensley, the ACP's vice president of research and analytics, said. Among them, Hanwha Solutions Corp. subsidiary Hanwha Qcells announced in January that it will invest more than $2.5 billion to expand its solar manufacturing capacity in Georgia. Companies are also ramping up investment in the more established US wind energy manufacturing base and in battery storage technology. In March, South Korea-headquartered LG Energy Solution Ltd. said it would break ground later this year on a $5.5 billion lithium-ion battery production complex in Arizona that it billed as North America's "single largest investment ever" in a stand-alone battery factory. "These are numbers that are pretty hard to comprehend," Hensley said.
Wood pellet mills’ air pollution violations in South Georgia raise concerns --A south Georgia wood pellet mill was recently fined nearly $52,000 for a series of state environmental violations, including bypassing its air pollution controls.While the fine represents one of the larger penalties issued by the Georgia Environmental Protection Division (EPD) for air pollution in recent years, advocates say it’s a paltry sum.“It’s really a drop in the bucket in terms of the profits and the money moving around in this industry,” said Heather Hillaker, a senior attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center.Hazlehurst Wood Pellets in rural Jeff Davis County is part of a booming biomass industry in the Southeast that converts organic material like trees and wood scraps into pellets that are burned to produce electricity.The vast majority of wood pellets produced in the region are exported to the United Kingdom and Europe, where they are heavily subsidized as a renewable alternative to coal because trees can be regrown. Climate scientists, however, have cast doubt on that logic, pointing out that burning wood still releases carbon into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change.For the communities where wood pellets are produced, the climate implications are secondary. The mills are regulated because they emit harmful air pollutants but advocates say state regulators’ enforcements are too lax. The Georgia EPD renewed Hazlehurst’s permit as a major source of emissions on May 2, 2022. The renewal came during a 14-day period when the facility was not using its pollution control equipment “for business and raw material supplier continuity purposes,” the company told EPD, according to a consent order issued by the state in April 2023.Although that transgression did not come to light until later, records show the mill had a history of poor compliance that ultimately contributed to the size of the fine. The consent order says Hazlehurst bypassed its pollution controls for about 48 days, and at other times did not operate those controls properly, nor did the company report problems to the state when they were discovered.In its written responses, the company provided emissions calculations that put its pollution below the limits in its permit. It also said the deviations flagged by EPD were either “a significant improvement” or unavoidable. A February application by Hazlehurst to EPD to expand its facility is pending. The mill is one of several owned by or affiliated with Fram Renewable Fuels that have been cited for violations and fined thousands of dollars. Fram Renewable Fuels did not respond to requests for comment left by email and phone. Sara Lips, a spokesperson for the EPD, wrote in an email that EPD uses a settlement calculation worksheet with supporting documents to calculate fine amounts. Asked why the facility was issued a new permit given its history, she said that in general, the agency “does not hold up permitting actions because of enforcement activity unless there is a direct correlation” between the two.Hillaker, the SELC attorney, said the enforcement appears to be lacking. EPD has a cap of $25,000 per day, per violation. Hazlehurst’s fine of nearly $52,000 equates to only two days of violations when the company either bypassed its pollution controls or didn’t use them correctly for a significant chunk of time over the year. “In my opinion, that is really undervaluing the issues here, which are repeated and substantial,” she said.The SELC has filed a Civil Rights complaint to the federal government against Georgia EPD over what it characterizes as the disproportionate impacts of pollution on protected groups, including racial minorities. The complaint is based the state’s decision to green light two large wood pellet facilities in the same neighborhood of Adel where the community is predominantly Black and Hispanic. That complaint is pending.
Siemens Posts $3B Net Loss on Wind Turbine Quality Issues Siemens Energy reported a net loss of $3.22 billion (EUR 2.93 billion) for the quarter ended June 30, compared to a net loss of $619.3 million (EUR 564 million) in the same period in 2022. The results for the quarter were mainly due to charges at its Siemens Gamesa wind turbine unit, specifically “quality issues of certain onshore platforms as well as increased product costs and ramp-up challenges in the offshore business”, the company said in an earnings press release. The results also include negative tax effects from valuation allowances on deferred tax assets in connection with the charges at Siemens Gamesa. Siemens Energy said its profit before special items dropped sharply to a net loss of $2.25 billion (EUR 2.05 billion) in the quarter from a net loss of $243.8 million (EUR 222 million) in the previous-year quarter, due to Siemens Gamesa’s loss. “All other segments sharply exceeded their prior-year quarter’s level both in terms of profit and corresponding margin”, the company said. “Our third-quarter results demonstrate the challenges in turning around Siemens Gamesa. The strong performance of our other business areas gives me confidence in our company’s ability to put businesses back on a strong footing”, Siemens Energy President and CEO Christian Bruch said. In a separate news release Monday, Siemens Energy said it had completed its analysis of the quality problems at Siemens Gamesa, specifying that “the largest proportion of the quality problems that can occur after a given turbine runtime are certain rotor blades and main bearings in the 4.X and 5.X platforms”. Even though the turbines can still be operated, the company said it aims to fix the problems within “normal service intervals”.
The US Has Just 22 EV Charging Points Per 1,000 Road Miles -- There are about 104 gas pumps per 1,000 road miles on average in the United States compared to just 22 EV charging ports for the same road distance, a new study by smart fuel card management platform Coast showed on Monday. As EV sales rise and the Biden Administration is pushing for transport electrification to reduce emissions from one of the most-polluting sectors in the U.S., the number of EV charging points is not enough now and the density of charging stations in some states is much lower than in others, according to the study. The team at Coast used data from the U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Department of Transportation to explore the state of EV charging infrastructure in the U.S.Massachusetts, Rhode Island, California, Hawaii, Maryland, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, and Washington are the U.S. states with more EV charging opportunities than gas stations, the study found. Massachusetts is top of the list. In this state, there are 31.4 EV charging stations on average per 100 square miles and only 18.4 gas stations per 100 square miles. Rhode Island and California follow closely behind, as both states provide residents with extensive charging networks to reinforce their commitments to cleaner transportation alternatives.“While EV adoption continues to surge, ensuring convenient and accessible charging options is crucial for further growth and widespread acceptance of electric vehicles. The transition to electric transportation requires a concerted effort to build a robust charging infrastructure,” the authors of the study wrote.Early this year, the Biden Administration announced actions to significantly expand the U.S. EV charger network to support its EV sales goals and back the Made-in-America manufacturing of components for charging stations. The set of actions is expected to help the Administration’s EV sales goals by building a national network of 500,000 EV chargers along America’s highways and in communities and have EVs make up at least 50% of new car sales by 2030. Analysts project that more than a million new public EV charging stations will be required in the U.S. by 2030 to accommodate the demand for electric vehicles.
Proterra, biggest EV bus maker in the US, files for bankruptcy -- Proterra, the largest U.S. electric-bus maker, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection late Monday.It’s a shocking turn for the nearly two-decade-old U.S. company, which has sought to compete against giant Chinese rival BYD and to partner with traditional bus-makers in the emerging North American and European electric bus markets.Proterra stated it plans to continue business operations as it pursues a restructuring “to strengthen its financial position through a recapitalization or going-concern sale.” The company intends to work with the bankruptcy court and its creditors to “use existing capital to fund operations, including paying employee salaries and benefits, and compensating vendors and suppliers on a go-forward basis.” Proterra, founded in 2004, has sold about 1,300 buses to more than 130 transit agencies in the U.S. and Canada. It also supplies drivetrains and batteries for other bus and transit manufacturers including Daimler’s Thomas Built Buses and Freightliner Custom Chassisdivisions, Van Hool, Bustech and others.The Burlingame, California–based company has raised about $682 million in venture capital from investors including Daimler, Generation Investment Management, Kleiner Perkins, Tao Capital Partners, Soros Fund Management, Cowen Sustainable Advisors and GM Ventures to build electric buses that gained a foothold in early North American deployments. In 2021, it became one of the largest of a slew of EV-related companies to go public via a reverse merger with a special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC). The deal netted Proterra $640million and valued the company at $1.6 billion. Following the public listing, Proterra announced plans to expand its South Carolina manufacturing facility and capitalize on the boost in federal EV funding from 2021’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act. And unlike many of the other EV SPACs that have struggled to attain manufacturing scale, “Proterra, to its credit, actually had very meaningful revenue,” said Pavel Molchanov, director and equity research analyst at Raymond James & Associates. In its most recent quarterly earnings statement in March, Proterra reported revenue of $80 million, with roughly two-thirds from its bus manufacturing. But Proterra has failed to turn a profit on its core electric bus manufacturing operations, as well as the drivetrain, battery and EV charger businesses it launched over the past five years, he said. Proterra’s cost of goods sold for the first quarter was $86.1 million, even greater than its revenue, which “means that Proterra loses money on every bus it sells,” he said.
EPA is ignoring the glaring problem with dirty electric vehicles The Environmental Protection Agency(EPA) has launched a new regulatory effort to force a massive transportation shift to electric vehicles (EVs) with its proposed “multi-pollutant emissions standards” for light- and medium-duty vehicles beginning with model year 2027. The reality, however, is that the proposed rule has little to do with “pollutants.” Instead, it is an attempt by the Biden administration to force an economy-wide transformation away from conventional cars and trucks in favor of EVs. This is a complex policy nostrum, poorly thought through and replete with adverse consequences that proponents are determined to ignore.The harsh realities of EVs are the reason regulatory agencies have tried so hard to force ever more such vehicles upon the market in ways insulated from democratic accountability. The EPA justifies its proposed rule on the grounds of what it refers to as a climate change “threat.” Under the explicit assumptions and estimated effects asserted by the EPA in the proposed rule, the temperature effect of the rule in 2100 would be about 0.023°C. This is calculated applying the EPA’s own climate model under assumptions that exaggerate the future effects of reduced emissions of greenhouse gases. Even this all-cost-no-benefit outcome is only one major problem. Another is the array of environmental and cost implications of obtaining the materials needed to produce EV batteries. As a crude generalization, EV batteries weigh a half ton or more. Each contains roughly 30 pounds of lithium, 60 pounds of cobalt, 130 pounds of nickel, 190 pounds of graphite, 90 pounds of copper and about 400 pounds of steel, aluminum and plastics. Mark P. Mills of the Manhattan Institute has done the attendant arithmetic on the amount of mining needed to produce these quantities for a single EV battery. By his estimate, each battery requires the extraction of 20,000 pounds of lithium brines, 60,000 pounds of cobalt ore, 10,000 pounds of nickel ore, 2,000 pounds of graphite ore and 12,000 pounds of copper ore. This tally excludes three to seven tons of what is known as the “overburden” for each ton of ore — that is, “the materials first dug up to get to the ore.” It also excludes the environmental burden involved in extracting and refining materials to produce the steel, aluminum and other less uncommon materials that go into EV batteries. In the context of the EPA’s climate justification for its proposed rule, Mills makes an obvious point that the proponents of forced EV adoption have avoided. “The variables and uncertainties in emissions from energy-intensive mining and processing of minerals used to make EV batteries are a big wild card in the emissions calculus,” he writes. “Those emissions substantially offset reductions from avoiding gasoline and, as the demand for battery minerals explodes, the net reductions will shrink, may vanish, and could even lead to a net increase in emissions.”
ERCOT Sets New All Time Peak Demand Record --The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) revealed earlier this month that the organization set a new, unofficial August and all-time peak demand record of 83,593 megawatts (MW) on August 1. ERCOT has set seven new all-time peak demand records this summer, the organization highlighted in a statement posted on its site. On June 27, the organization set an all time peak demand record of 80,787 MW, which was surpassed on July 12 (81,351 MW), July 13 (81,406 MW), July 17, (81,911 MW), July 18 (83, 592 MW), July 31 (83,047 MW), and August 1, ERCOT’s site outlines. The July 31 and August 1 records are deemed unofficial until final settlements occur, ERCOT’s site highlights. Last year, ERCOT set 11 new peak demand records, surpassing 80 GWs for the first time ever, the statement posted on its site noted. ERCOT highlighted in the statement that its six day supply and demand dashboard was showing the possibility of new all-time peak demand records this week. The organization also said in the statement that it had issued a weather watch from August 6 to 7 “due to forecasted higher temperatures, higher electrical demand, and the potential for lower reserves”. “Grid conditions are expected to be normal during a weather watch,” ERCOT noted in the statement. As of August 7, 04.40 CDT, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s National Weather Service website was transmitting 10 excessive heat warning alerts and six heat advisory alerts for Texas. As of August 8, 03.42 CT, ERCOT’s website was reporting “normal” grid conditions and showing that there is enough power for current demand.
Growing power line needs generate new friction in Minnesota’s clean energy shift - Matt Maier spent 15 years building his Thousand Hills farm into a model of environmental stewardship. [...] Maier, though, worries his local environmental success story may soon be eclipsed by the needs of a statewide clean energy movement — the push to generate Minnesota’s electricity from carbon-free sources. Spurred by a new state law and climate goals, utilities in the state are pushing ahead on plans to deliver more solar and wind energy to the electrical grid. That means a massive buildout of hundreds of miles of new power lines across Minnesota — projects that often face pushback from local communities and landowners, especially in rural areas. Rural Clearwater in Wright County offers a look at both the opportunities and challenges in the state’s clean energy transition. Xcel Energy hopes to deliver wind and solar power to Becker from southwestern Minnesota, which could mean stretching a new high-voltage transmission line across local farm fields, wetlands and creeks. Maier worries about the trees that would need to be cut to clear a path for the powerline and whether its electromagnetic field would affect his cattle. He also wonders how it might alter his life’s mission of sharing knowledge of holistic agriculture with others. “We use this as our classroom,” Maier said. “If you’ve got a giant power line running through it, it just kind of defeats what we’re trying to do.”
DOE rule would permit power lines quickly - The Biden administration proposed a rule Thursday to streamline the federal permitting process for major transmission lines, a move that could help transform the grid and bring renewable energy online faster. The Department of Energy plan calls for completing environmental reviews and other federal approvals for electric power lines within two years. Under the proposal, DOE would be the lead agency conducting environmental impact statements and other federal reviews for transmission projects so that developers wouldn’t need to go through multiple federal agencies. DOE would, however, coordinate with other relevant agencies depending on the scope of each project. The proposed changes — which came in response to the recent debt ceiling deal — could dramatically reduce the amount of time it takes to build new long-distance power lines in the U.S., clean energy advocates said. Getting transmission built faster could help integrate more solar and wind into the U.S. energy resource mix. Rob Gramlich, president of the power sector consulting firm Grid Strategies LLC, said the proposal was “a very big deal.” Although Congress authorized DOE in 2005 to serve as the lead federal agency to review electric power lines, that authority was not formally proposed until now, he said. “The current administration has been successfully coordinating a lot of agencies, but this formalization which Congress asked for in 2005 will likely make it a sustainable and consistent practice going forward,” Gramlich said in an email. Currently, a large transmission project might need approvals from the Forest Service, the Department of the Interior and other agencies depending on its location and size. “Implementing a one-stop-shop for agency reviews and setting strict deadlines for this process will represent a fundamental leap forward from the current system, which requires applicants to juggle each agency’s timeline separately and can sometimes delay a project by years,” Christina Hayes, executive director of the transmission advocacy coalition Americans for a Clean Energy Grid, said in a statement. The DOE rule outlines information that transmission developers should provide upfront to assist with project reviews. For example, DOE would require developers to complete resource reports about potential environmental impacts from construction or operation of their projects. Applicants would also need to submit plans for engaging with communities affected by a new transmission line.
California ‘undergrounding’ approach leaves lower-income populations disadvantaged - Lower-income communities in California shoulder a disproportionate share of fire-prone overhead power lines and wooden utility poles, a new study has found. While one of the most effective ways to prevent wildfires and improve system resilience is to bury power lines underground, doing so largely occurs at the expense of the local community, the study authors noted. Because decisions about such burial are often based on whether the local population can afford the project costs — up to $5 million per mile — most “undergrounding” has occurred in wealthy areas, according to the study, published Monday in Nature Energy. “Distribution grids in low-income communities are in a wildfire safety deficit,” lead study author Zhecheng Wang, a postdoctoral scholar in electrical engineering, said in a statement. California’s Public Utilities Commission allows communities, developers and property owners to identify areas for undergrounding, as well as receive funding for a small portion of the cost from their utility. Nonetheless, wildfire threat and income level have not factored into the regulator’s criteria for which projects should advance and who should pay for them, the researchers explained. If California continues with this approach, the per-household cost of burying existing fire-prone overhead lines will soon become significantly higher in lower-income census blocks, according to the study. For blocks in areas where wildfires are most likely to impact power lines, the authors estimated that the cost would be $37,000 per household at the $200,000 income level, and more than three times that at the $50,000 income level.
US utilities oppose Biden efforts to make gas power plants cleaner -- The main lobbying group for US electric utilities plans to oppose a Biden administration proposal to curb greenhouse gas emissions from existing gas power plants, raising questions about the industry’s commitment to reducing planet-heating pollution. The pushback will put the Edison Electric Institute (EEI) out of step with many of its members’ stated commitments to cut emissions, critics say. It also runs counters to the US voters’ political views based on new polling shared exclusively with the Guardian and Floodlight. The power plant rules, first proposed in May, would force power providers to clean up certain large coal- and gas-fired plants, either by installing new greener technologies or shutting the projects down. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is asking states and utilities to submit plans on how they choose to limit those emissions within 24 months of the rules’ final approval. Public comments must be submitted by 8 August. EEI is circulating a draft comment on the rule to its member groups which were described by first-hand sources to Craig Segall, vice-president of policy at Evergreen Action. The draft says EPA’s proposed transition timelines are too strict and that the technology it would require is difficult to install, Segall said. EEI has previously asked the EPA to exclude these power plants from its emission-reduction rule in a series of white papers submitted to the agency. “EEI is working with our members to finalize extensive comments that are intended to help EPA develop final rules that support the ongoing clean energy transition, prioritize customer affordability and are legally durable,” EEI spokesperson Brian Reil said in an email. “There are elements of the proposal that are favorable, and we are making recommendations to strengthen them; elements that are fixable with additional flexibilities; and elements that miss the mark.” The proposal would serve the White House’s goals to zero-out power sector emissions by 2035 and achieve a net-zero economy by 2050.
Utilities say EPA power plant rule isn’t ready - U.S. electric utilities told EPA on Tuesday that a proposed rule to shrink power plant carbon emissions shouldn’t be implemented yet because key emerging technologies aren’t ready, offering the latest pushback to the Biden administration’s plan.The Edison Electric Institute, which represents investor-owned utilities, pointed to technical shortcomings with the potential use of clean hydrogen and carbon capture to slash greenhouse gases in the power sector.EPA’s proposed timetable, EEI said, could leave grid operators short of fossil-fuel-based generation that may be essential to prevent power outages in emergency situations, particularly during extreme weather when wind and solar power supplies can be low. The electric utility trade group has touted efforts by its members to lower carbon emissions in recent years — while warning of a need to move at a pace that preserves reliability. “EPA should not finalize” standards that are based on carbon capture or blending zero carbon hydrogen with natural gas in turbine generators, EEI said in its Tuesday commentsto the agency. “If EPA moves forward with the standards as proposed … the Agency should provide electric companies and states as much compliance flexibility as possible to address achievability concerns,” it added.EEI’s views on the rule were highly anticipated, as it is the power sector’s largest lobby group and has worked closely with the Biden administration on energy issues.The group’s warning shows the challenge facing the Biden administration as it pushes to decarbonize the U.S. grid by 2035. Without full support from the country’s largest utilities — which determine much of the trajectory of the electricity mix — the Biden clean energy goals are unlikely to be reached, even with the incentives in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, according to analysts’ computer modeling. EEI’s comments reflect utilities’ position that the infrastructure and systems to roll out widespread carbon capture and hydrogen blending won’t be ready on EPA’s timetable and would impose high costs on utility customers.The EPA proposal — not due to be made final until next year — would set deadlines for carbon emissions reduction for coal power plants and large gas-fired units, adding new federal requirements for what is now a mix of clean energy targets in Democrat-led states and varying goals for carbon reduction by 50 of the nation’s large utilities. Comments on the proposal were due Tuesday.
Canada Mapping Electric Path, with Natural Gas-Fired Generation in Mix - Natural gas-fired power plants would continue to be a reliable energy supplier for Canada under proposed revisions to the nation’s electricity regulations. Under draft rules issued Thursday, thermal generation including natural gas would be accepted if the operations include removing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using carbon capture and storage (CCS). Federal and provincial incentives would encourage the switch, according to the proposed rules package. “The draft regulations set a clear signal for transitioning toward a clean grid, while including flexibilities to avoid stranding large capital assets, and to enable electricity systems to continue to provide reliable, affordable power,” officials said. “One such flexibility allows for an ongoing, though limited,...
In Youngstown, a Downtown Tire Pyrolysis Plant Is Called a ‘Recipe for Disaster... - InsideClimate News -- A developer has big ideas to turn tires, plastic and electronic waste into energy at 30 locations, starting with a tire-to-gas plant next to the jail and student housing in the heart of what was once Ohio’s Steel Valley.Tapping into 19th century technology, the Youngtown coal plant long provided steam through a network of underground tunnels to heat downtown buildings.A new owner, a businessman named David Ferro from the Columbus suburbs, and his company, SOBE Energy Solutions, have visions of restoring that service and doing a whole lot more—but this time, using as much as 88 tons of old tires a day as fuel. His plan would deploy another old but reimagined technology—pyrolysis, a centuries-old process for decomposing materials at high temperatures in an oxygen-free environment that’s been used for making tar from timber for wooden ships and coke from coal for steelmaking during the last century.The SOBE proposal for loading shredded tires, which can contain as much as 24 percent synthetic polymers, a type of plastic, into a sealed chamber at high temperatures is based on a proprietary version of pyrolysis developed by another Ohio-based company, CHZ Technologies.The proposal is among the latest controversies in the United States over what the chemical industry calls “advanced recycling,” often meaning some type of pyrolysis or a related technique, gasification, to turn plastic waste into energy or feedstocks for new plastics. While promising to limit its Youngstown plant to using only shredded tires as a feedstock, Ferro describes a broader business plan that would add plastic and electronic waste to tires at as many as 30 other “waste-to-energy” plants in the United States and overseas, including one in Lowellville, Ohio, eight miles southeast of Youngstown.For SOBE, it all starts at the old coal steam plant in Youngstown, where the company is poised to get the air pollution permit it needs from the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency. Ohio EPA will hold a public meeting and hearing Aug. 10 in Youngstown on the draft permit for the facility. But Ferro has encountered spirited opposition, including local environmentalists, neighborhood watch leaders, the president of the Youngstown City Council and a recently retired high-ranking fire department official and hazardous materials expert, all of whom are looking for ways to stop the plant. Like national environmentalists and academic experts, they do not view pyrolysis as clean energy and are concerned about toxic air emissions. They argue it makes no sense to put what amounts to a chemical plant, with its risks of fires and explosions, in a downtown that has been undergoing a renaissance of sorts. The old coal plant sits a couple blocks from a large jail, near new Youngstown State University student housing and the university’s football stadium, with a capacity of 20,000 people. A downtown amphitheater is nearby, as is a neighborhood with a substantial number of Black and low-income residents.For Silverio Caggiano, who retired last year as a battalion chief with the Youngstown Fire Department and served for 18 years on a statewide committee of first responders working to safeguard Ohio from hazardous waste and terrorism threats, his concerns come down to “location, location, location.”“The SOBE plant is situated upwind so that the entire city and campus will be affected in a failure,” he said. “If this thing has a bad day, it’s going to contaminate the entire damn city.”
Money paid, favors done. Messages detail relationship between Ohio regulator and energy executives - Ohio Capital Journal - In early 2019, news of financial ties between Akron-based FirstEnergy and the man incoming-Gov. Mike DeWine had named to lead the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio began to spread. And as it did, FirstEnergy’s top executives feared they wouldn’t have a regulator they could control, according to documents filed in federal court late last week.“Great. Now we have none on the list” of nominees, then-CEO Chuck Jones texted Vice President Michael Dowling. Jones later added, ruefully, “Always need a backup plan.”As it happened, the nominee, Sam Randazzo, ended up being appointed to the commission after being paid $4.3 million by FirstEnergy. He proceeded to help draft a law providing the utility with a $1.3 billion bailout. The company spent another $60 million to pass and then to protect it from a citizen-initiated repeal in what law-enforcement officials have called one of the biggest bribery and money-laundering scandals in state history.Randazzo, Jones and Dowling haven’t been charged in the scandal, but after a jury trial that convicted two others, two guilty pleas, and a suicide, the three men could be the next targets as federal authorities continue their probe. If authentic, the communications filed on Friday indicate that the three met in Randazzo’s Columbus condo in December 2018. And they appear to show that the FirstEnergy executives agreed to pay Randazzo a large sum in exchange for favors when Randazzo became the state’s chief regulator.Another communication 23 months later — just after the FBI searched the condo in November 2020 — shows Randazzo providing a friend “the number for my home which the FBI does not have.”The documents filed in federal court on Friday are part of a huge class-action suit against FirstEnergy, Jones, Dowling and a number of other defendants. In a deferred prosecution agreement, FirstEnergy in 2021 agreed to pay $230 million and admitted wrongdoing, including by bribing Randazzo. But the class-action plaintiffs — large pension and investment funds — are arguing that the company violated securities law by not disclosing its corrupt conduct. And, they argue, the company lost much of its value when that conduct came to light, leaving investors holding the bag.
Ascent Res. 2Q – Drilled 21 & Fracked 22 Wells, Added 20 to Sales - Marcellus Drilling News - Ascent Resources, founded as American Energy Partners by gas legend Aubrey McClendon, is a privately held company focusing 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale. Ascent, headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK, is Ohio’s largest natural gas producer (356,700 leased acres) and the 8th largest natural gas producer in the U.S. The company issued its second quarter 2023 update on Wednesday. Ascent’s net production averaged 2.1 Bcfe/d (billion cubic feet equivalent per day) during 2Q23, up 6% over 2Q22 but down from 2.2 Bcfe/d in 1Q23. The company made $250 million in profit during 2Q23, down just a bit from the $285 million it made in 2Q22.
Ascent Resources Utica Holdings reports on 2Q – Ascent Resources Utica Holdings reported its second-quarter 2023 operating and financial results.The company said it had averaged net production of 2.1 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent per day, a 6% increase year-over-year, while increasing NGL and oil production by 20% and 28%, respectively, over the same period. It reported net income and adjusted net income of $250 million and $60 million, respectively. It reported generated net cash from operating activities of $285 million and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $285 million.“The second quarter was one of strong execution and excellent operational performance, as the team continues to deliver on our plan while navigating a challenging price environment,” Ascent’s Chairman and CEO Jeff Fisher said. “We successfully turned in line 20 new wells across the play, with a handful of liquids-rich wells contributing to substantial quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year gains in NGL and oil production. We remain steadfast in our commitment to maintaining production and balancing our development across all three windows of the Utica shale.”
EOG Essentially Confirms DT Midstream Building Its Utica Pipeline | Marcellus Drilling News - In 2020, EOG Resources, one of the largest oil and gas drillers in the U.S. (with international operations in Trinidad and China), sold *all* of its Marcellus assets, which were located in Bradford County, PA, to Tilden Resources for $130 million (see EOG Resources Sells Marcellus Assets for $130M, Exits Basin). EOG left the M-U building, so to speak. But the company couldn’t stay away. Last November, we told you that EOG admitted to stealthily amassing 395,000 net acres in the Ohio Utica for very little money (see EOG Resources Accumulates 395K Acres in Ohio Utica for Under $500M/). EOG calls its new position the “Ohio Utica combo play,” and it concentrates on oil drilling in the Utica. What did EOG say about its Utica program in the company’s second quarter 2023 update?
EOG Touts Dorado, Ohio Utica Natural Gas Projects as LNG Demand Poised for Takeoff --EOG Resources Inc. is advancing multiple upstream natural gas projects ahead of an expected surge in LNG export demand, management said Friday.CEO Ezra Yacob discussed an improving outlook for natural gas prices, which have plunged this year, during the Houston-based independent’s second quarter earnings call. EOG operates in all the major Lower 48 onshore basins, as well as Trinidad and Tobago, and Australia. The company was the ninth leading producer of natural gas among U.S. publicly traded firms as of the first quarter, according to NGI calculations. “Regarding North American natural gas, while inventory levels remain above the five-year average, prices have firmed up recently, reflecting a reduction in natural gas drilling and an increase in demand from both power...
Lib Dems Use Form Letters to Reduce PA’s Chances of Winning H2 Hub - Marcellus Drilling News - The League of [Liberal Democrat] Women Voters of Pennsylvania is “teaming up” with the leftist fanatics at Food & Water Watch to launch a zombie (i.e., form) letter-writing campaign, hoping to convince the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) NOT to award a $1 billion hydrogen hub contract for any application that includes the Keystone State (there are three such applications). Cause, you know, it would involve building more fossil fuel infrastructure in the state, and *everybody* knows that fossil fuels are Satanic. The Lib Dem groups are hoping if they can’t dazzle the DOE with brilliance, they can baffle them with mountains of Barbara Streisand form letters.
Coterra Tentatively Plans to Drop $200M/Yr from Marcellus Budget - Marcellus Drilling News - Coterra Energy, formed in 2021 by the merger of Permian oil driller Cimarex Energy and Marcellus gas driller Cabot Oil & Gas, issued its second quarter 2023 update yesterday. The company made far less profit in 2Q23 than it did one year ago, in line with other big Marcellus/Utica drillers. Coterra made $209 million in profit for 2Q23, versus $1.2 billion in 2Q22. Why the drop in profit? The crashing price of natural gas over the past eight months or so. Coterra received an average of $5.54/Mcf (before hedges) for its Marcellus gas in 2Q22, and $1.78/Mcf in 2Q23, a drop of 68%. Ouch. During a conference call with analysts, company management floated a potential plan to free up around $200 million from Marcellus operations in 2024 and reallocate it to other plays (the Permian or the Anadarko) by continuing to run just two rigs and one frac crew in the Marcellus.
Expansion News from DT Midstream and Equitrans - EnergyPortal.eu - DT Midstream and Equitrans have announced plans for expansion projects in the natural gas industry. DT Midstream has greenlighted the development of a new trunkline and gathering system in the Ohio Utica Shale. This is in response to the acquisition of dedicated acreage by a large-cap producer with plans to develop the area. The Ohio Utica System will have a capacity of 200 MMcf/d and is expected to be in service by the first half of 2024.DT Midstream also intends to integrate the gathering system with downstream assets, including the NEXUS Pipeline, in which it holds a 50% ownership. The company plans to maximize capacity and utilization on NEXUS by optimizing hydraulics and is considering a potential permanent expansion of the system. Currently, NEXUS has been experiencing strong takeaway flows, with an average utilization of 85% and reaching capacity on many days.Equitrans has also begun construction activities for its Ohio Valley Connector Expansion (OVCX) project. The expansion will increase the capacity of the existing Ohio Valley Connector (OVC) by 350 MMcf/d, bringing its total capacity to 1.2 Bcf/d. The OVC transports gas from northern West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania to Clarington, OH, and has interconnects with Equitrans’ Mainline and Sunrise Transmission System, as well as with REX and Rover pipelines.These expansion projects reflect the growing demand for natural gas in the region and the need for infrastructure to transport and deliver the resource. These developments will contribute to the overall growth and efficiency of the natural gas industry in the Ohio Utica Shale and surrounding areas.
Appalachia Natural Gas Midstream Expansions Heat Up | RBN Energy In a note a couple weeks ago, we discussed Williams' plans to ramp up brownfield expansions on Transco Pipeline, citing an influx of supply from Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) and increasing demand from downstream markets. This week, there was more expansion news from DT Midstream and Equitrans:DT Midstream said in its second-quarter earnings call that it has greenlighted and moved up the development of a new trunkline and gathering system to move associated gas from new wells drilled in the liquids-rich window of the Ohio Utica Shale. DTM accelerated its timeline for the project after the dedicated acreage held by a small private producer was acquired by a large-cap, investment-grade producer with plans to develop the area. The initial buildout of the Ohio Utica System will include a new trunkline and backbone of the gathering network with a capacity of 200 MMcf/d, and DTM is targeting in-service in H1 2024.DTM is looking to integrate the gathering system with downstream assets, including the NEXUS Pipeline, of which it has 50% ownership. DTM leadership also said on the call that it is looking to maximize capacity and utilization on NEXUS by optimizing hydraulics and hinted that it is assessing the possibility of a permanent expansion of the system. Appalachia takeaway flows on NEXUS have averaged 1.1 Bcf/d this summer to date, or 85% utilization. Average utilization was 87% in winter 2022-23 and reached or slightly exceeded the 1.3 Bcf/d capacity on many days. Equitrans informed FERC this week that it began construction activities for its Ohio Valley Connector Expansion (OVCX) project on August 3, after receiving a notice to proceed from FERC on July 31.) The expansion will increase capacity on the existing Ohio Valley Connector (OVC) by 350 MMcf/d, bringing its total capacity to 1.2 Bcf/d. OVC moves gas from northern West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania and delivers gas to Clarington, OH, and has interconnects with Equitrans’ Mainline and Sunrise Transmission System, as well as with REX and Rover pipelines.
18 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jul 31 – Aug 6 | Marcellus Drilling News - New shale permits issued for Jul 31 – Aug 6 in the Marcellus/Utica were down a lot from the previous week. There were 14 new permits issued last week, down more than half from the 29 issued the previous week. Last week’s permit tally included just 4 new permits in Pennsylvania (very low), 14 new permits in Ohio, and no new permits in West Virginia (for the second week in a row). The top permittee for the week was Encino Energy, receiving 8 permits spread evenly between Harrison and Tuscarawas counties in Ohio. ASCENT RESOURCES | COLUMBIANA COUNTY | COTERRA ENERGY (CABOT O&G) | ENCINO ENERGY | GUERNSEY COUNTY | HARRISON COUNTY |HILCORP ENERGY | REPSOL | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | TUSCARAWAS COUNTY
Mysterious Oil Spill Reported in Machias - On Wednesday, Aug. 9 at approximately 1 p.m., Machias police were called to investigate a mysterious oil spill in front of the Machias Valley New Observer (MVNO) office on 41 Broadway. The police were alerted by a neighbor living next door to the newspaper office. Upon arriving at the scene, Chief Keith Mercer and another officer noticed a strong smell of oil or a similar substance in the air. They discovered a wide area of Broadway that was soaked in the oily substance. Chief Mercer immediately requested the assistance of the Machias Fire Department to spread absorbent material on the road in order to contain and clean up the spill. Initially, Chief Mercer suspected that an oil truck might have been responsible for dumping the oil. However, he now believes that the spill could have been caused by a 55-gallon drum falling off a truck and splitting open. Witnesses informed the police that a black truck had been seen stopped in the area just before the spill was reported. Despite efforts to determine the exact cause of the spill, Chief Mercer admits that without further information or witnesses coming forward, it is unlikely that they will be able to establish the cause definitively. Although Broadway was briefly reduced to a single lane while the fire crew spread absorbent material on the road, it was never completely closed to traffic. The fire crew was able to clear the scene by 1:45 p.m.
US natgas gains as hot weather forecasts offset higher output (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures firmed on Tuesday as hotter than normal weather kept air conditioning demand high, especially in Texas, offsetting pressure from rising output. Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 5.2 cents, or 1.9%, higher at $2.777 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Warmer than normal weather in the densely populated states, continued heat in Texas, and indications that LNG export facilities are ramping up in anticipation of higher winter demand are all providing a more stable and supportive market for prices, said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy. "Especially when you layer on the fact that we're seeing drilling CapEx cutbacks by several natural gas major players, we expect natural gas production to sort of plateau at just over 100 billion cubic feet a day through the end of the year and probably into early 2024." Power demand in Texas hit an all-time high on Monday and will likely break that record again this week as homes and businesses keep their air conditioners cranked up during the lingering heat wave, according to forecasts by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state's power grid operator. Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas burned to produce power for cooling, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), federal energy data showed. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain hotter than normal through at least Aug. 23. Data provider Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 101.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 105.2 bcfd next week as power generators burn more of the fuel and exports rise. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was 102.1 bcfd so far in August, up from 101.8 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record of 102.2 bcfd in May. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have fallen from an average of 12.7 bcfd in July to 12.2 bcfd so far in August due mostly to a reduction at Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana. That compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April. The U.S. is on track to become the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023 - ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar - as much higher global prices continue to feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine. In 2022, roughly 69%, or 7.2 bcfd, of U.S. LNG exports went to Europe as shippers diverted cargoes from Asia to get higher prices. In 2021, when prices in Asia were higher, just 35%, or about 3.3 bcfd, of U.S. LNG exports went to Europe. With the return of higher gas prices in Asia this year, analysts said they expect U.S. LNG exports to Asia will increase. But that has not happened yet. Just 19%, or 2.1 bcfd, of U.S. LNG exports went to Asia during the first half of 2023, while 70%, or 8.0 bcfd, went to Europe.
Natural gas' $3 razzle-dazzle over in just a day - -- Now you see it, now you don’t: That’s how natural gas’ latest run to $3 pricing was, with speculation of production tightness resulting in a near 7% rally unwound within a day by a bearish storage report. The front-month September gas contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Henry Hub settled at $2.763 per mmBtu, or million metric British thermal units — down 19.6 cents, or 6.6% on the day. In Wednesday’s session, September gas settled up 6.6% as well, after reaching a near seven-month high of $3.018. Prior to that, the last time gas prices on the hub crossed $3 was during the week to Jan. 20, when they peaked at $3.595. That rally was triggered by speculation that America’s favorite fuel for indoor cooling and heating might be facing a supply squeeze from pipeline issues. Prior to Wednesday, the market had been stuck at mid-$2 for months as production often came in higher than thought, with weather conditions less intense than projected, resulting in less power burns than forecast for heating and cooling. Analysts at Gelber&Associates, a Houston-based energy markets advisory, had warned earlier this week about maintenance issues on the NEXUS and REX pipelines that could slow gas production, which had often breached the daily threshold of 1 billion cubic feet, or bcf. Nexus is an approximately 256-mile, 36-inch interstate natural gas transmission pipeline designed to transport up to 1.5 bcf of daily gas delivery from feed points in eastern Ohio to southeastern Michigan. REX, an acronym for the Rockies Express Pipeline, is a 1,679-mile (2,702 km) long gas delivery gas system from the Rocky Mountains of Colorado to eastern Ohio. But any concerns of supply tightness were offset by the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly report Thursday on natural gas inventories, which showed gas stockpiles rising 29 billion cubic feet, or bcf, during the week ended Aug. 4 — versus a forecast injection of 25 bcf and a prior weekly build of 14 bcf. Total gas held in underground caverns across America was at 3.03 trillion cubic feet last week — up 21.4% from a year ago and 11.2% higher versus the five-year average. “Large buying from short-covering is therefore likely finished for now and will no longer provide bullish support,” Gelber’s analysts added.
Here's where Louisiana's LNG facilities will be located - Liquefied natural gas is a booming industry in Louisiana, and it’s only set to grow in the coming years. Three of the nation’s seven LNG export terminals are already in operation here, and 10 more new facilities are scheduled to be open by the end of the decade, if all goes to plan. Another one is in the works but doesn't have an announced timeline yet. The new projects are in various stages. Some are under construction, while others are still awaiting federal or state permits. Others have received their permits but have yet to move forward as their parent companies wait to make a final investment decision. The projects are underway amid high demand for LNG worldwide. Industry supporters say it's the best way to transition from dirtier fuel sources like coal and to wean Europe off Russian natural gas following the country's war in Ukraine. However, environmental advocates say natural gas is still a fossil fuel that spews out far too many emissions to be considered a clean energy source. Here is a map of Louisiana’s existing and proposed LNG facilities and where they will be located should they come to fruition as expected.
Gas Prices Inch Higher As TotalEnergies Shuts Down Port Arthur Refinery -was forced to shut down a unit at its 225,000-barrels-per-day refinery at Port Arthur in Texas due to a leaky pump, adding to other refinery outages that have pushed U.S. gasoline prices higher in recent days alongside the rise in crude oil prices. Total's U.S. unit of the French energy major, said in a statement, carried by Dow Jones, that “A pump located in unit 825 developed a leak that reached the reportable quantity of un-speciated volatile organic compounds.” “The unit is being shut down in order to isolate the pump and stop the leak,” the refinery operator added. The emissions from the incident ended on Thursday night after 11 hours. The refinery, 95 miles east of Houston, is one of TotalEnergies' six refining and petrochemicals platforms worldwide, and the company’s largest facility in the United States. Last week, the same refinery reported an operational disruption and gas emissions after the cogeneration unit at Port Arthur experienced a unit upset due to a loss nitrogen oxides steam injection. The latest incidents at TotalEnergies’ Port Arthur refinery add to other disruptions and outages at refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast in recent days. Last week, an unexpected shutdown at the gasoline-making unit of ExxonMobil’s refinery at Baton Rouge, Louisiana, sent U.S. gasoline futures rallying to the highest since October 2022. Repairs at the Exxon refinery could take weeks and last for the rest of the driving season, thus reducing gasoline supply to the market. Gasoline prices are also responding to the recent rise in crude oil prices. This summer, gasoline prices are rising amid heatwave-related outages at some domestic refineries and WTI Crude jumping back to above $80 per barrel.
Some Permian E&Ps Reporting Softer OFS, Materials Costs Some Permian Basin-focused exploration and production (E&P) executive teams – Callon Petroleum Co., HighPeak Energy Inc. and Permian Resources Corp. to name a few – are reporting that oilfield services (OFS) and material prices softened during the second quarter. Houston-based Callon Petroleum Co. CEO Joe Gatto said OFS equipment prices dropped slightly. Gatto hosted a conference call to discuss earnings. Callon has exited the Eagle Ford Shale and expanded in the Permian’s Delaware sub-basin. Gatto said elevated prices for OFS equipment are softening. Callon “recently recontracted two drilling rigs at rates that were below our previous rates. Spot market items like steel casing and sand are being priced down between 15-20%, and we are also starting to realize price...
Our Oil Predicament Explained: Heavy Oil And The Diesel Fuel It Provides Are Key - by Gail Tverberg via OurFiniteWorld.com -- It has recently become clear to me that heavy oil, which is needed to produce diesel and jet fuel, plays a far more significant role in the world economy than most people understand. We need heavy oil that can be extracted, processed, and transported inexpensively to be able to provide the category of fuels sometimes referred to as Middle Distillates if our modern economy is to continue. A transition to electricity doesn’t work for most heavy equipment that is powered by diesel or jet fuel. A major concern is that the physics of our self-organizing economy plays an important role in determining what actually happens. Leaders may think that they are in charge, but their power to change the way the overall system works, in the chosen direction, is quite limited. The physics of the system tends to keep oil prices lower than heavy oil producers would prefer. It tends to cause debt bubbles to collapse. It tends to squeeze out “inefficient” uses of oil from the system in ways we wouldn’t expect. In the future, the physics of the system may keep parts of the world economy operating while other inefficient pieces get squeezed out. In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues with oil limits as they seem to be playing out, particularly as they apply to diesel and jet fuel, the major components of Middle Distillates. [1] The most serious issue with oil supply is that there seems to be plenty of oil in the ground, but the world economy cannot hold prices up sufficiently high, for long enough, to get this oil out.As I frequently point out, the world economy is a physics-based system. World oil prices are set by supply and demand. Demand is quite closely tied to what people around the world can afford to pay for food and for transportation services because the use of oil is integral to today’s food production and transportation services.Heavy oil is especially involved in this affordability issue. As oil becomes “heavier,” it becomes more viscous, and thus more difficult to ship by pipeline. If oil is very heavy, as is the oil from the Oil Sands of Canada, it needs to be mixed with an appropriate diluent to be shipped by pipeline.Heavy oil often has sulfur and other pollutants mixed in, adding costs to the refining process. Furthermore, heavy oil, especially very heavy oil, often needs to be “cracked” in a refinery to provide a desirable mix of end products, including diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline. This, too, adds costs. Otherwise, there would be too much of the product mix that would be like asphalt. Also, as noted previously, even if the costs of production are high, the selling price of diesel cannot rise very high without raising food prices. This tends to keep the prices of heavy crude oils below those for lighter crude oils.Many people believe that the high level of “Proved Oil Reserves” worldwide makes it certain that businesses can extract as much oil as they would like in the future. A major issue is whether these reserves mean as much as people assume they do. Oil reserves of OECD countries (an association of the US and other rich countries) are likely to be audited, but reserves of other countries may not be. Asking a relatively poor oil-exporting country the amount of its oil reserves is like asking the country how wealthy it is. We should not be surprised by fibbing on the high side. The problem is that the vast majority of reported oil reserves (85%) are held by non-OECD countries. These reserves may be significantly overstated.Also, even if the reserves are fairly reported, will the country have the resources to extract these reserves? Venezuela reports the highest oil reserves in the world thanks to its heavy oil in the Orinoco Belt, but it extracts a relatively small amount per year. An October 2022 article says that the country is waiting for foreign investment to expand production.Going forward, oil companies everywhere need to worry about broken supply lines for necessary items, such as steel drilling pipe. They need to worry about finding enough trained workers. They need to worry about the availability of debt and the interest rate that will be charged for this debt. If private oil companies look at the true prospects and find them too bleak, they will likely use their profits to buy back the shares of their own oil companies instead (as is happening now).
Private equity gets into oil and gas — Where private equity investors make acquisitions,bankruptcies tend to follow. Brands from Radio Shack to Toys R Us went under after being bought by these firms, as did the company that made the Instant Pot, and hundreds of local newspapers endured layoffs and reduced coverage. Now, private equity investors appear to have found a new target: oil and gas companies operating on public land in the Western U.S. A new report from Public Citizen, a nonprofit progressive think tank, reveals the industry’s interest in oil and gas extracted from public land in the West (the Private Equity Stakeholder Project co-authored the report). Companies backed by private equity have taken in 78% of all federal drilling permits approved in Colorado since 2017, and 50% of those in Utah. In total, according to the report, private-equity-backed companies hold approximately $380 million in unplugged oil and gas wells in four Western oil states: Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming.In general, private equity refers to investors, such as hedge funds or venture capital outfits, that borrow large amounts of money to acquire struggling companies. The newly acquired company is then saddled with that accumulated debt. Meanwhile, the private equity firm tends to repay itself and its investors using fees, shareholder payments and debt restructuring. These tactics often mean big returns the private equity fund’s investors.But since private equity tends to focus on declining industries, this profit-squeezing model can result in the acquired companies going bankrupt. The Public Citizen study noted that private equity firms chew through companies quickly, holding them for an average of five years. And when oil companies go bankrupt, orphaned wells can be left behind to leak methane into the atmosphere, while the costs of plugging them ultimately falls on the public.“The overall point that we’re trying to make is that private equity’s involvement in Western oil drilling adds a layer of uncertainty because these companies turn over,” said Alan Zibel, a research director at Public Citizen. “They get in and they get out very quickly. So it really starts this chain of selling these companies to more and more potentially irresponsible actors.”
Pipeline operators to pay $12.5M after crude oil spills in Montana, North Dakota (AP) — Two pipeline operators have agreed to pay a $12.5 million civil penalty related to crude oil spills in Montana and North Dakota. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Monday announced the settlement in a2022 federal court lawsuit. Belle Fourche Pipeline Company and Bridger Pipeline LLC will pay the $12.5 million to resolve the claims made under the Clean Water Act and Pipeline Safety Laws, the EPA said. The affiliated companies own and operate oil pipelines in Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming. In 2015, Bridger’s Poplar Pipeline broke and spilled more than 50,000 gallons (about 190,000 liters) of crude into the Yellowstone River near Glendive, Montana. Bridger has completed cleanup of the site, and in 2021 settled a lawsuit with federal and Montana authorities for $2 million. Montana’s Department of Environmental Quality previously fined Bridger $1 million in the case.In 2016, Belle Fourche’s Bicentennial Pipeline in Billings County, North Dakota, broke due to a landslide and spilled over 600,000 gallons (about 2.3 million liters) of oil, impacting an unnamed tributary, Ash Coulee Creek and the Little Missouri River. Belle Fourche’s cleanup is ongoing with oversight from North Dakota’s Department of Environmental Quality, according to the EPA.The agreement announced Monday does not resolve all issues with the Ash Coulee spill and reserves the government’s right to bring future legal claims.The $12.5 million civil penalty includes a nearly $4.6 million portion for North Dakota’s Department of Environmental Quality. Belle Fourche also will pay the state’s past response costs, totaling over $98,000, according to court documents filed Monday.“Oil pipeline spills can cause enormous and long-lasting damage to the environment,” Principal Deputy Assistant Administrator Larry Starfield of the EPA’s Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance said in a statement. “This settlement holds Belle Fourche and Bridger Pipeline accountable for their significant oil spills and requires them to take meaningful measures to prevent future spills from their oil pipelines.”The operators also are required to implement specified compliance measures, in addition to the civil penalty.
Ukrainians move to North Dakota for oil field jobs to help families facing war back home - (AP) — Maksym Bunchukov remembers hearing rockets explode in Zaporizhzhia as the war in Ukraine began. Now, about 18 months after the war broke out, Bunchukov is in North Dakota, like thousands of Ukrainians who came over a century ago. He is one of 16 new arrivals who are part of a trade group’s pilot effort through theUniting for Ukraine humanitarian program to recruit refugees and migrants during a workforce shortage. Twelve more Ukrainians are scheduled to arrive by Aug. 15 as part of the North Dakota Petroleum Council’s Bakken Global Recruitment of Oilfield Workers program. Some workers want to bring their families to North Dakota while others hope to return to Ukraine. The Bakken program has humanitarian and workforce missions, said Project Manager Brent Sanford, a former lieutenant governor who watched the Bakken oil rush unfold during his time as mayor of boomtown Watford City from 2010 to 2016. The oil boom initially was met by an “organic workforce” of western North Dakotans with experience in oil field jobs elsewhere, but as the economy reeled from the Great Recession, thousands of people flocked to the Bakken oil field from other states and even other countries to fill high-wage jobs, Sanford said. But the 2015 downturn, coronavirus pandemic and other recent shocks probably led workers back to their home states, especially if moving meant returning to warmer and bigger cities, Sanford said. Workforce issues have become “very acute” in the last 10 months, Ness said. Ness estimated there are roughly 2,500 jobs available in an oil field producing about 1.1 million barrels per day. Employers don’t advertise for every individual job opening, but post once or twice for many open positions, he said. An immigration law firm told Ness that Uniting for Ukraine would fit well for North Dakota given its Ukrainian heritage, similar climate and agrarian people, he said.
SoCalGas Agrees to $71M Settlement Tied to Aliso Canyon Natural Gas Leak in 2015 -- Regulators and Southern California Gas Co. (SoCalGas) have reached a $71 million settlement over the 2015 Aliso Canyon natural gas leak, the largest in U.S. history. The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) said late Thursday the agreement requires Sempra Energy’s SoCalGas to pay the penalty into the Aliso Canyon Recovery Account. The California Legislature created the account to address public health fallout from the leak, which started in October 2015 and lasted until February 2016. Nearly 100,000 tons of methane were released into the atmosphere during that span. The agreement further prevents SoCalGas from recovering the settlement’s costs from ratepayers. The utility also cannot bill customers for various other costs related to the leak, including $1.8 billion...
‘Dangerous pivot’ on overseas oil and gas deals splits Biden administration - The Biden administration is retreating from its promises to stop funding oil and gas projects overseas, triggering a split among senior officials over whether to prioritize climate change or the diplomatic alliances the White House has deemed critical to counter Russia and China. Federal agencies have approved funding for proposals like renovations to an Indonesian oil refinery and shipments of natural gas to Poland — sometimes over the objections of President Joe Biden’s special climate envoy, John Kerry, and Democratic lawmakers. The policy shift shows how the fraught global political situation caused by the war in Ukraine and Washington’s tense rivalry with Beijing is threatening environmental goals. Democratic lawmakers and environmentalists fear the change could erode U.S. climate leadership as greenhouse gas emissions rise steadily and temperatures soar. “The Biden administration continues to approve one fossil project after another, which completely undermines our international dialogue for a faster transition to renewables and undermines our credibility,” said Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), who along with Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) has pressed the White House for information on its policy for funding the oil and gas projects. But defenders of the shift say it is a pragmatic change that acknowledges European allies are dependent on Russian energy exports and developing nations are wary of China’s growing influence. “No one’s overlooking the climate consequences of these policies, but they are being weighed against the broader foreign policy, economic policy and security policies in United States,” said Landon Derentz, who worked on international energy policy at State, the Energy Department and the White House during the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations before leaving last year. The White House did not provide a comment for this story.
Canadian E&Ps, Pipelines and Utilities Recovering After Fires Scorched 2Q Natural Gas, Oil Output - Canada’s natural gas and oil sector faced daunting challenges during the second quarter because of the still-unfolding wildfire season, but activity overall has recovered, according to some of the top operators. Exploration and production (E&P) companies, midstream operators, oilfield services (OFS) providers and utilities reported big and small impacts to their operations between April and June because of the massive number of forest fires. Canada’s traditional wildfire season continues through September. Calgary-based E&Ps at one point in the quarter had shuttered at least 319,000 boe/d, or 3.7% of Canada’s total production, according to one government tally. Most production has since recovered, and some E&Ps even expect to exceed their initial...
Keyera Overcomes Canadian Wildfire Outages as KAPS Starts Up, Moving Supply from Grand Prairie -- The full ramp-up of a dual pipeline to transport natural gas liquids from Canada’s Grand Prairie production area helped improve the bottom line for Calgary-based Keyera Corp. during 2Q2023, even with outages related to the Canadian wildfires. The Calgary-based midstream operator began service in June through the second leg of the Key Access Pipeline System (KAPS). Keyera partners in KAPS with Stonepeak Partners LP. Condensate from a separate system began operations earlier this year. “Our basin continues to grow and set new records for both natural gas and crude oil production,” executives said. “As an essential infrastructure service provider, Keyera will continue to play an integral role in enabling basin growth.”
LUSCO aware of oil particles discovered on the shoreline following Buckeye oil spill --- OIL particles were reportedly discovered this week along the coastline in several upscale residential communities in the Lucaya area. #In a statement on Tuesday, Lucaya Service Company Limited (LUSCO), said it is aware of the recent discovery of trace amounts of oil particles along the shoreline and embankments near Fortune, Churchill, and Spanish Main beaches. #“The matter is under investigation and being contained and remediated with the utmost level of urgency,” said LUSCO. #LUSCO is responsible for the maintenance of properties in subdivisions developed by the Grand Bahama Development Company Limited (DEVCO). #The company indicated that it is in communication with the Department of Environmental Planning and Protection (DEPP), the Government Port Department, the Grand Bahama Port Authority’s Environmental Department, and the relevant agencies and stakeholders for ongoing monitoring. #On August 2, Buckeye Bahamas Hub reported that a spill occurred at approximately 5.54am on August during a flushing operation to facilitate the transfer of products between two tanks at its marine terminal off Pinder’s Point. #The company said approximately five to ten barrels of product fuel was released, and that was estimated that between two and three barrels of the product went into the water. #Environment and Natural Resources Minister Vaughn Miller, Senator Michael Halkitis, State Minister for Finance, and acting Minister for Grand Bahama, and a team from various government agencies travelled to Freeport to assess the situation and met with Buckeye officials. #The government agencies leading the investigation are the Port Department, the Department of Environmental Planning and Protection, and the Department of Environmental Health Services.
European Gas Prices Surge 30% On Australian Supply Fears -European natural gas prices have rocketed more than 30% on Wednesday, as traders panicked over the possibility of reduced LNG supply from Australia, a world leading supplier of the commodity. The European benchmark,TFF, jumped to as high as €42 per megawatt hour in Wednesday intraday trading, 35% higher than the previous day, and its highest point since mid-June.Commodity analysts have said that the sudden jump was likely due to some traders rushing to close their short positions on the news of tightening supplies. Europe has failed to secure enough long-term LNG contracts to offset cut-off Russian gas imports, with Reuters earlier predicting this may prove costly next winter and could sharply tighten the market. The European Union views natural gas as a bridge fuel in the transition to renewable energy, and buyers generally struggle to commit to long-term contracts. This means that Europe might be forced to buy more from the spot markets like it did in 2022, which in turn is likely to push prices up:"Since the green lobby in Europe has managed to persuade politicians wrongly that hydrogen to a large extent can replace natural gas as an energy carrier by 2030, Europe has become far too reliant on spot and short term purchases of LNG," consultant Morten Frisch earlier told Reuters.Last year, Australia emerged as the world’s leading exporter of LNG, shipping 82.0 million tonnes (Mt) of LNG2 valued at $63 billion, a new world record. That figure eclipsed 81.2 Mt exported by Qatar and 79.1 Mt exported by the United States. But some gas experts have claimed that Australia could soon lose its lead in the gas business due to a host of challenges including reserves not being fully replaced despite important legacy gas fields reaching the end of their lives, growing domestic demand and more regulatory scrutiny.Australia has 10 operating LNG projects located in Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory with a total capacity of 88.6 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa). The Pluto Train 2 project currently under construction will bring total capacity to 93.6 Mtpa (126 Bcm) when it starts operations in 2026. Australian LNG projects have a good reliability track-record (achieved 93% of nameplate capacity in 2022).
European gas prices expected to rise amid Australia LNG supply fears - Energy analysts believe the bullish momentum for European natural gas prices will persist over the coming months after futures jumped almost 40% on Wednesday. Fears over possible supply disruption in Australia saw the front-month gas price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub, a European benchmark for natural gas trading, hit its highest level since mid-June on Wednesday. It rose to an intraday high of more than 43 euros ($47.4) per megawatt hour before paring gains and extended losses on Thursday. The contract was last seen trading at around 36.6 euros. In the U.S., meanwhile, gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 6.6% on Wednesday to settle at $2.96, reflecting their best daily performance since mid-June and the highest closing price since early March. The surge in gas prices came on news of a potential liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility strike at major plants in Australia as workers campaign for higher pay and improved job security. Zongqiang Luo, gas analyst at energy consultancy Rystad Energy, said the price spike reflected the likelihood of the strike materializing, which would in turn impact LNG supplies during ongoing heatwaves despite ample gas inventories in Europe. "The potential strike would be led by Australian workers at Chevron and Woodside Energy Group, which may interrupt four LNG facilities," Luo said in a research note. They added that the prospect of a strike could disrupt approximately half of Australia's LNG export capacity and prompt many Asian buyers to try to source their LNG cargoes elsewhere. China and Japan, for instance, purchased 26 million metric tons of Australian LNG combined in the first half of the year, Luo said, noting this accounted for over 60% of the country's exports over the period. "Looking ahead, we expect the bullish outlook for gas prices to continue with fewer LNG imports to Europe, planned maintenance for Norwegian pipelines and continued heatwaves in multiple regions globally," Luo said. For Europe, the spike in gas prices comes as the euro zone continues to wean itself off Russian fossil fuel exports following the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. John Evans, an analyst at brokerage PVM, said that despite countries such as Germany securing large gas deals with other countries, "there still remains a possibility of a shortfall and a reversion to having to buy at spot as seen in 2022." "Australia is now the highest exporter of LNG, beating Qatar and the US, but with production issues and compromised gas fields, European buyers are fearful of security in supply and have resorted to tank filling from the cash market before the onset of winter," Evans said in a research note. The extension of a force majeure declared in Nigeria in October last year was adding to tightness in the LNG market, Evans continued, with fields struggling to regain production after heavy flooding. "At present it does not appear that there is anything untoward in the energy sector to upset this rally," he said.
Bunker Operations Resume in Gibraltar After Oil Spill - Bunker operations resumed in Gibraltar over the weekend after last week's marine fuel spill. Bunker operations were allowed to go ahead in Gibraltar as of midday on Saturday, the Gibraltar Port Authority said in a statement on its website. Gibraltar is the largest bunkering location in the Mediterranean, with about 4 million mt/year of fuel deliveries. "Yellow flags have been raised at both Little Bay and Camp Bay," the authority said. "This will be constantly monitored and beachgoers are asked to report any sightings of oil or sheen to the lifeguards. "Red flags may be raised again if necessary. "Booms are being replaced in Rosia Bay, whilst the coastal clean-up continues. "Vessels continue to skim in the area for freefloating sheen with sorbent booms. "The Captain of the Port takes this opportunity to thank the port operators and the public for their understanding and cooperation throughout the oil spill response." An estimated 1,000-2,000 litres of VLSFO was spilled while the Gas Venus was being bunkered at Gibraltar on August 1 as a result of the vessel's tanks overflowing. Gibraltar is the largest bunkering location in the Mediterranean, with about 4 million mt/year of fuel deliveries. Ship & Bunker News Team
Oil spill gas tanker released from detention after operator pays £1.5m bond - The gas tanker that leaked fuel oil into the Bay of Gibraltar last week during a bunkering operation was released from detention on Thursday and allowed to sail from the Rock after its operator deposited a £1.5m bond to cover clean-up costs. The vessel Gas Venus departed Gibraltar late Thursday evening. The ship was detained on the day of the spill while an investigation was conducted into the cause of the incident. Officials estimate that between 1000 and 2000 litres of heavy fuel oil entered the sea when something went wrong during a refuelling operation at anchorage just off the South Mole. The spill reached areas of the rocky shoreline, particularly in the area of Rosia Bay where a clean-up operation has been going non-stop to remove as much of the oil as possible from what is classed as a sensitive conservation site. While the spill was relatively minor and most of the oil has been mopped up thanks to the efforts of official clean-up teams and volunteers, the incident has again focused attention on the impact of commercial maritime activity on the environment in British territorial waters around the Rock. The detention order on the Gas Venus was lifted under the authority of the Captain of the Port, John Ghio, upon the receipt by the Gibraltar Port Authority of a cash bond in the sum of £1.5 million. “This ensures that the costs of all oil spill response and clean-up operations are covered,” No.6 Convent Place said in a statement. “The vessel’s departure from Gibraltar will have no effect on the ongoing investigation as all evidence from the Gas Venus has already been collected.” “Clean-up operations remain focused on the area of Rosia Bay and continue to progress well.” In the wake of the incident, the ship’s captain, 56, was interviewed and arrested by the Royal Gibraltar Police on suspicion of a pollution offence under port rules. The captain remains on police bail and is in Gibraltar. He is due to surrender to bail within the next two weeks.
Section Of Russia-Europe Oil Pipeline Halted After Leak - Poland’s pipeline operator PERN said on Sunday it had halted a section of the Druzhba pipeline carrying oil from Russia to Europe after detecting a small leak that is being fixed, with oil flows set to be restored by Tuesday.The damaged section, where there is no indication of the leak being caused by a third party, is under repairs now, the company said in a statement carried by Reuters.“The expected time for pumping to resume is Tuesday morning,” PERN said.Security of supply to Germany is “fully guaranteed,” a spokesperson for the German federal Economy Ministry told Reuters.Apart from the section under repair, other parts of the infrastructure operated by PERN are operating as usual, including the Pomeranian section, which is used to pump crude oil arriving in tankers to Poland and then further to Germany, the company said.Parts of the Druzhba pipeline have come under attack since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.Earlier this year, a pumping station on the Druzhba oil pipeline was shelled in a western Russian region bordering Ukraine and Belarus, but the oil flows continued.The Druzhba pipeline is a key artery of oil supply from Russia to Europe, with two branches – a northern one via Belarus to Belarus, Poland, Germany, Latvia, and Lithuania, and a southern one passing through Ukraine and sending oil to the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Croatia.Flows through the Druzhba pipeline are exempted from the EU embargo on imports of Russian crude oil by sea that came into effect on December 5. The EU has exempted pipeline oil flows to landlocked EU member states from the ban.Nevertheless, Germany and Poland have said they would halt imports of Russian crude via the Druzhba pipeline as of January 1. Germany did it on the first day of this year, following through on a previous pledge to stop buying Russian pipeline crude despite the fact that the EU embargo exempts pipeline flows from Russia to Europe.
Poland hopes to fix leak in Russia's Druzhba oil pipeline by Tuesday (Reuters) - Polish pipeline operator PERN said it had halted pumping through a section of the Druzhba pipeline, which connects Russia to Europe, after detecting a leak in central Poland on Saturday, but it expects flows to resume on Tuesday. PERN said there was no indication a third party had caused the leak, which follows a series of attacks on pipelines carrying Russian oil and gas since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. "PERN services have reached the damaged section of one of the lines of the western section of the Druzhba pipeline in the commune of Chodecz," PERN said earlier on Sunday. "It is the main line that transports crude oil from sea deliveries to the west. Repair work on the oil pipeline is currently underway. The expected time for pumping to resume is Tuesday morning." PERN did not say what the impact would be on supply to Germany, but a spokesperson for the federal Economy Ministry in Berlin said: "We are in contact with the operators of the east German refineries. The security of supply is still fully guaranteed." Firefighters and PERN emergency services were at the scene but there were no reports of a fire. "The part of the pipeline that was affected by the leak was cut off from the rest, so the scale of the leak is not huge, we're talking about a rectangular area measuring 30 by 210 metres (yards)," Grzegorz Jankowski from the State Fire Services in Wloclawek told private broadcaster TVN24. PERN said the second line was operating normally and there was no health threat to local residents. It said supply to Polish refineries was not impacted and that it was in contact with German partners receiving oil through the pipeline. Germany stopped buying Russian oil in January, but German media have reported that Kazakh oil was being imported through the line. Germany's industry association for fuels and energy did not immediately respond to requests for comment. "Other elements of PERN's infrastructure, including (Druzhba's) Pomeranian section, which is used to pump crude oil arriving in tankers to Poland and then further to Germany, are operating in standard mode," PERN said in its statement. The Druzhba oil pipeline is one of the world's largest and can carry 2 million barrels per day. The total capacity of the western section of both lines that carry oil from central Poland to Germany is 27 million tonnes of crude oil per year. Flows through the Druzhba pipeline have dropped sharply since Russia's invasion of Ukraine and pipeline infrastructure has been hit several times since in attacks that Moscow has blamed on Ukraine. Ukraine has not acknowledged the attacks. Europe has been on high alert over the security of its energy infrastructure since major leaks were found in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines running from Russia to Europe under the Baltic Sea in September. The leaks were found to have been caused by unexplained explosions that ruptured both pipelines. Moscow has blamed Ukraine and the West for the blasts, which occurred as Europe was reducing its reliance on Russian energy in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine and Western leaders have denied any responsibility for the attacks, calling them an act of sabotage that they are investigating.
Polish operator starts repairs on pipeline carrying oil from Russia to Europe after detecting a leak (AP) — Poland’s oil pipeline operator said Sunday repairs are underway to a pipeline carrying oil from Russia to Germany that was temporarily shut down after a leak was discovered.The operator, PERN, said the pipeline is expected to resume normal operations on Tuesday.PERN said it detected the leak near Chodecz, a town in central Poland about 145 kilometers (90 miles) west of Warsaw. The leak was on one of the two lines that comprise the western section of the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline.The company said it immediately halted pumping through the faulty pipeline, but the second line was operating normally.Firefighters and emergency services secured the area. An investigation into the cause of the the leak was underway, PERN said.The company said in a statement Sunday that crews have reached the damaged section of the pipeline and that repairs were underway.The Druzhba pipeline stretch carries oil from Russia to refineries in Poland, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, according to the Polish state news agency PAP.
Poland says it fixes leak in Druzhba oil pipeline -(Reuters) - Polish pipeline operator PERN said on Tuesday that it had restored the Druzhba oil pipeline to full functionality as expected, after a leak had been discovered. PERN halted pumping through a section of the pipeline, which connects Russia to Europe, after detecting a leak in central Poland on Saturday. The operator said on Sunday there was no indication that a third party had caused the leak, which follows a series of attacks on pipelines carrying Russian oil and gas since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. "PERN's technical services restored full functionality of the damaged pipeline on Monday evening," the operator said in a statement. "Now the company's focus will focus on clearing the area and restoring it to its proper condition." Germany, which receives supplies through the pipeline, stopped buying Russian oil in January, but German media have reported that Kazakh oil was being imported through the line. The Druzhba oil pipeline is one of the world's largest and can carry 2 million barrels per day. The total capacity of the western section of both lines that carry oil from central Poland to Germany is 27 million tonnes of crude oil per year. Flows through the Druzhba pipeline have dropped sharply since Russia's invasion of Ukraine and pipeline infrastructure has been hit several times since then in attacks that Moscow has blamed on Ukraine. Ukraine has not acknowledged the attacks.
Shell Pipeline Spill Damages Nigeria’s Farmland And Waning Oil Goodwill – Nigerian authorities and Shell Oil’s local subsidiary have been investigating the cause of an oil spill on the Trans Niger pipeline that lasted a week before it was contained. The spill was detected on June 11th at Eleme in south Nigeria’s Rivers State and confirmed by Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (S.P.D.C.) four days later, after the oil had contaminated farmland and the Okulu River. The Trans Niger pipeline boasts 180,000 barrels per day, and is one of two channels used to export Bonny Light crude oil. Determining the volume of oil spilled will be crucial in determining not only the extent of the damage, but also who may be to blame for this particular incident.Shell has faced numerous legal battles over oil spills in the Niger Delta, a region plagued by the pollution, conflict, and corruption associated with the industry. The company has reported issues with pipeline vandalism and illicit tapping of their crude oil, and consistently attributes spills to these isolated local incidents. Thandile Chinyavanhu, a campaigner for Greenpeace Africa, said the latest spill only adds to Shell’s dubious environmental record in Nigeria. Fyneface Dumnamene, owner of the non-profit Youths and Environmental Advocacy Centre, estimated that the company has displaced over 300 fishermen in the region.“Shell must be held accountable and financially responsible for this spill and for its neocolonial role in causing climate loss and damage,” Chinyavanhu said.Even though the scale of the incident is still being investigated, it has already been deemed one of the worst in the last sixteen years in Ogoniland, a kingdom in the Niger Delta that predominantly houses farmers and fishermen. The Niger Delta region houses several minority ethnic groups, including Ijaw, Andoni, Dioubu, Nembe, and Ogoni. Shell terminated production in Ogoniland over two decades ago as a result of violent protests against severe environmental destruction, but the pipeline is still operational in transporting crude oil through the area. Additionally, although the leak itself has been contained, the process of cleaning up the affected farms and the river is still delayed, due to past grievances and deep mistrust among the community. Nigeria produced the most crude oil of any African nation in 2022, but a large portion of its domestic oil revenue is lost to corruption. Because the 1999 Constitution gives the federal government ownership over natural resources, minimal profits are distributed to the Nigerian people. Rather, the state’s profits increase as oil prices increase, and little of this revenue is poured into the Niger Delta, Nigeria’s main oil-producing region. Poverty in the Delta is widespread, and provisions such as transport infrastructure, water, and electricity are unreliable. Furthermore, oil exploitation has left large swaths of the region contaminated by gas flares and leakages, thereby rendering it unusable for farming. A 2011 report by the U.N. Environment Program criticized Shell and the Nigerian government for a half century of pollution, recommending a comprehensive billion-dollar cleanup. Local environmental activists, however, argue that the promised cleanup is a cover-up with no tangible impact, since it was promised to eventually begin in 2016. The lack of effective response from oil companies, as well as federal government officials, has created an environment of complicity in Nigeria.
Yemeni gov't confirms oil tanker rescue operation nearing completion - (Xinhua) -- The Yemeni government announced Tuesday that the United Nations' delicate operation to unload oil from the FSO Safer, a deteriorating tanker stranded off the coast of Yemen, is in its final stages. According to a statement from the state-run Saba news agency, the Yemeni Minister of Transport Abdul-Salam Humaid revealed that the international effort to address the Safer tanker situation has made remarkable progress. He clarified that "with meticulous coordination and rigorous execution," 1,083,285 barrels of crude oil have been successfully transferred from the Safer onto a replacement vessel. This accounts for 94 percent of the total amount stored onboard the deteriorating tanker. The Yemeni minister expressed gratitude for the collaborative efforts of various international partners and local authorities, highlighting the importance of proactive measures in safeguarding the environment and preventing such disasters from unfolding. The 45-year-old FSO Safer, marooned off the port of Hodeidah since 2015, had been a ticking time bomb containing approximately 1.1 million barrels of oil. As the vessel's condition continued to deteriorate, concerns escalated regarding the potential for a devastating oil spill. The situation grew dire enough that the United Nations issued a warning about the possibility of an oil spill that could surpass the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster in scale. The ship-to-ship transfer of more than 1.1 million barrels of oil from the decaying floating storage and offloading unit FSO Safer to a replacement tanker, the Yemen, began on July 25, 2023, as announced by the United Nations. Yemen has been embroiled in a devastating civil war since 2014, with the Houthi rebels fighting against the internationally-recognized government and its allies. The war disrupted Yemen's food supply chain and caused widespread famine, bringing the Arab world's poorest country to the brink of collapse.
Conventional Discovered Oil and Gas Volumes Falling to New Lows -Despite rising investments in conventional oil and gas exploration, discovered volumes are falling to new lows. That’s what Rystad Energy research shows, the company highlighted in a new release sent to Rigzone, adding that its estimates show that in the first half of 2023, explorers found 2.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), which the company said was 42 percent lower than the first half of 2022 total of 4.5 billion boe. Rystad revealed in the release that 55 discoveries have been made from January to June this year, “compared to 80 in the first six months of last year”. The company noted in the release that this means discoveries in 2023 have averaged 47 million boe, which it said is lower than the 56 million boe per discovery for the same period in 2022. In the release, Rystad stated that, “in the hunt for new resources”, exploration companies are prioritizing the offshore sector. The offshore industry accounted for about 95 percent of exploration spending this year to date, but only about two-thirds of discovered volumes, the company highlighted in the release. In a chart included in the publication, Rystad revealed that annual global conventional exploration spending is expected to top $50 billion in 2023. This figure came in below $50 billion in 2022 and just above $40 billion in 2021, according to the chart. “Upstream companies are facing a period of uncertainty,” Aatisha Mahajan, the Vice President of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, said in a company statement. “They are eager to capitalize on the increased demand for fossil fuels and find additional resources, but recent results have been lackluster,” Mahajan added. “If exploration efforts continue to yield unimpressive results for the remainder of the year, 2023 could be a record-breaker for the wrong reasons,” the VP continued.
India Scoops Up Cheapest Russian Oil Since Start Of Ukraine War India’s crude oil imports from Russia in June were the cheapest since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, during which time the world’s third-largest oil importer became a key Russian oil customer alongside China.The average cost of a barrel of Russian crude that landed at India’s ports in June was at $68.17, per data from India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry cited byBloomberg. The price exceeds the $60 price cap set by the G7, but the cap does not include shipping. Most of India’s purchases of Russian crude oil are being done on a delivered basis inclusive of freight, insurance, and other costs.To compare, India paid $70.17 on average per barrel of Russian crude in May and $100.48 a barrel in June 2022, according to the data. International crude oil prices were lower in June compared to July and early August amid concerns about the global economy and the uneven Chinese recovery after the end of the Covid restrictions. But prices have rallied in recent weeks as hopes have grown of a soft landing of the U.S. economy. Analysts and traders expect the supply cuts by OPEC+ and the unilateral output and export reductions from Saudi Arabia and Russia, respectively, to tighten the market for the rest of the year. India’s crude oil imports from Russia dropped in July and could be headed to a more significant decline in August, to the lowest since January this year, according to Kpler. In July, crude imports from Russia into India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, dropped to 2.09 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 2.11 million bpd in the previous month, Viktor Katona, head of crude analysis at Kpler, told Bloomberg last week.
India nears finalising 20-year LNG deal with Qatar - The Indian Government-backed gas supplier, GAIL, is in the final stages of closing a liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply deal with Qatar, according to industry insiders cited by Reuters. This agreement will involve India purchasing at least 1 million metric tonnes of LNG per year from the world’s leading exporter, Qatar, and could extend for more than 20 years, said three industry and trade sources. This comes after the announcement of Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC striking a 14-year deal valued between $7 billion to $9 billion with Indian Oil Corp to supply 1.2 million metric tonnes of LNG per year. That deal was finalised during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). India’s pursuit of energy agreements is part of a broader strategy to ensure energy security as the nation strives for a high growth rate, eyeing its ambitious goal of becoming a developed economy in the coming decades. The deal with Qatar would align with GAIL’s plans to diversify its gas imports and hedge against potential supply disruptions, as witnessed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year when LNG prices reached an all-time high. Last year, GAIL had to curtail gas sales to local industries following disruptions in its long-term agreement with the German unit of Russia’s Gazprom, as Berlin diverted volumes to its domestic market. Qatar, meanwhile, is seeking to sign record volumes of long-term sales contracts this year to expand its market share globally, particularly at Russia’s expense. The deal with GAIL would be significant as it will make the company the second local firm to enter into an agreement with Qatar. Petronet LNG, part-owned by GAIL, is already negotiating an extension beyond 2028 for its long-term LNG deal, under which Qatar supplies 8.5 million metric tonnes per year. One of the sources noted that a deal with GAIL would enhance prospects for renewing Petronet’s deal at improved pricing. India aims to conclude both deals by the end of September. Indian companies are investing billions in building gas infrastructure and are actively seeking long-term contracts to increase the share of natural gas in the country’s energy mix to 15% by 2030, up from about 6.5% currently. GAIL’s head of finance, Rakesh Jain, expressed the company’s intention to purchase an additional 7 million to 8 million metric tonnes of LNG by 2030, but aims to avoid depending on a single country for more than 1 million to 2 million metric tonnes annually, mitigating the risk of sudden disruption, reported Reuters.
TTF Prices Surge as Strikes Loom at Australian LNG Export Terminals – Labor unions in Australia have escalated negotiations with Woodside Energy Group Ltd. and Chevron Corp. by voting overwhelmingly to go on strike if necessary. Strikes haven’t started, but the Australia Workers’ Union and Maritime Union authorized protected industrial action. The move sets the stage for potential work stoppages that could put nearly 10% of global LNG capacity at risk of shutting down. The vote could impact operations at the Wheatstone, Gorgon and North West Shelf LNG export terminals. European natural gas prices surged Wednesday, when the prompt Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract jumped by nearly 30% to finish close to $13/MMBtu. It was the largest gain since March 2022.
More Talks Scheduled to Avoid Strikes at Australia LNG Terminals – Negotiations to avert labor strikes at Woodside Energy Ltd.’s North West Shelf LNG export facility and Chevron Corp.’s Wheatstone and Gorgon facilities continued Friday. Another round of negotiations between the Offshore Alliance and the companies is scheduled for Tuesday (August 15). Talks over wages and working conditions have continued for months. The facilities can produce a combined 40 million metric tons/year of LNG, representing about 10% of global capacity. After skyrocketing earlier in the week due to supply concerns over potential work stoppages at the plants, European benchmark Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contracts declined for a second day Friday, falling through November.
Uptick in Chinese Natural Gas Imports Places Further Pressure on Global LNG Supply -- Despite a slower than expected economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, China gradually regained its position as the world’s largest LNG importer in July, raising the potential for a winter supply squeeze. China’s liquefied natural gas imports from the beginning of the year through July totaled 42.2 million tons (Mt), placing it around 2 Mt higher than Japan during the same period, according to data from Kpler. Cargoes landing in China especially increased during the second quarter as the country’s spot buying activity increased. Kpler LNG analyst Laura Page told NGI that Chinese LNG demand is expected to continue to recover throughout the year compared to its drop in imports last year. China’s global LNG imports last year fell to the lowest point since 2019 as it...
China's July crude imports drop to lowest since January (Reuters) - China's crude oil imports in July fell 18.8% from the previous month to the lowest daily rate since January, customs data showed on Tuesday, as major exporters cut back overseas shipments and domestic stocks continued to build. Crude shipments into the world's biggest oil importer in July totalled 43.69 million metric tons, or 10.29 million barrels per day (bpd), the data from the General Administration of Customs showed. June's 12.67 million bpd of imports were the second-highest on record. Still, oil imports were 17% higher than the 8.79 million bpd brought in a year earlier, a period when China's economy was hammered by widespread COVID outbreaks and extensive lockdowns. Crude imports for the first seven months of the year totalled 325.8 million metric tons, up 12.4% on the same period in 2022. "The (month-on-month) decline was led by lower imports from the big-3 crude exporters, namely the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Russia, which have cut exports amid reduced production targets and/or higher domestic demand," said Emma Li, a China crude oil analyst at Vortexa in Singapore. Li noted that China's onshore crude oil inventories were over 1.02 billion barrels at the end of July and the consistent rise in those stockpiles could allow Chinese refiners to slow their purchases in the coming months. Despite the lower overall imports, state-owned refineries raised their processing rates in July to an average of 78%-82%, up 2-3 percentage points from June, data from consultancy Zhuochuang showed.
Platts Survey: OPEC+ Oil Output Slumps To Two-Year Low -The members of the OPEC+ group saw their collective oil production slump to the lowest level in nearly two years in July after Saudi Arabia began its unilateral output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd), the Platts survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights showed on Wednesday.OPEC’s oil production from all 13 members stood at 27.34 million bpd in July, down by 890,000 bpd compared to June. The non-OPEC allies saw their output at 13.06 million bpd, basically flat month on month, as Russian output remained almost unchanged, according to the survey. The July production of OPEC+, at 40.40 million bpd, was down by 940,000 bpd compared to June. Last month’s output of the alliance was the lowest since August 2021, the Platts survey found.Due to the voluntary unilateral cut, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production fell to 9.05 million bpd, the lowest level since June 2021, and falling below Russia’s production, according to the survey.Higher production in Iran and Venezuela, both under sanctions, slightly offset the cuts from Saudi Arabia. Iran and Venezuela, however, are not part of the OPEC+ deal for production cuts due to the sanctions constraining their output and exports. OPEC’s crude oil production alone fell in July by the largest amount in years, according to the monthly Bloomberg survey from last week. OPEC’s crude production fell by 900,000 bpd last month, to an average of 27.79 million bpd. It is the sharpest drop since 2020 when the group rushed to cut its output in the wake of Covid lockdowns and crashing demand.Crude oil production at OPEC and OPEC+ are expected to remain low for at least this month and next, as Saudi Arabia last week extended its 1-million-bpd cut into September, adding that the reduction could be extended or extended and deepened. Russia, for its part, will cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September, after a 500,000-bpd export reduction pledged for August.
Kazakhstan Prolongs Oil Output Cuts Until 2024 - – Kazakhstan has reaffirmed its commitment to the agreement on oil output cuts by 78,000 barrels per day till the end of 2024 following the latest agreement reached by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This was announced at the 49th meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) on Aug. 4, reported the Energy Ministry’s press service.OPEC member countries recognized the importance of complying with the obligations fulfilled under the agreement in May-June, noting the current situation in the oil market.JMMC members agreed to continue monitoring market conditions to respond to market changes and be ready to take the necessary measures, relying on the solidarity of the participating countries. The JMMC expressed support and gratitude for Saudi Arabia’s efforts to maintain the stability of the oil market, for an additional voluntary reduction by one million barrels per day, and for extending it until September.The committee also thanked Russia for an additional voluntary reduction in oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day in September.
Iran Plans To Boost Oil Output To 3.5 Million Bpd Before October - Iran expects to increase its oil production by 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) to reach 3.5 million bpd output by the end of next month, the head of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) said on Wednesday. At the time when the current Iranian administration took office in 2021, the country was producing 2.2 million bpd of oil, NIOC’s chief executive Mohsen Khojastehmehr was quoted as saying by the semi-official Tasnim news agency.Iranian oil output is set to hit 3.5 million bpd by the end of the Iranian month of Shahrivar, or September 22, 2023, the executive added.Last month, Iran was already producing 3.1 million bpd of oil, the highest level in nearly five years, a member of the energy committee at the Iranian Parliament said in July. Iran has boosted output by nearly 1 million bpd since President Ebrahim Raisi took office in August 2021. Iranian oil production increased from 2.2 million bpd back then to 3.1 million now, Hossein Hosseinzadeh, a member of the energy committee at the Iranian Parliament, the Majlis, told Iranian news agency IRNA.According to estimates by Argus, the last time Iran produced that much oil was in October 2018.That was the year in which then-U.S. President Donald Trump re-imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil exports after withdrawing the United States from the nuclear deal.Per OPEC’s secondary sources in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, Iranian crude oil production stood at 2.754 million bpd in June, up by 56,000 bpd compared to May, and higher than the 2022 average of 2.554 million bpd. Iran itself has not reported production figures to OPEC since the U.S. sanctions on its oil industry returned in 2018.
Oil giant Saudi Aramco posts 38% drop in second-quarter profit as lower prices bite -Saudi state oil giant Aramco reported 112.81 billion riyal ($30.0 billion) in net profit for the second quarter, a fall of nearly 40% from the same period last year amid a decline in hydrocarbon prices. Second-quarter profit nevertheless came slightly above analyst expectations near $29.8 billion in an Aramco-supplied poll. In a filing to the Saudi stock exchange — known as Tadawul — the company said the substantive decline was due to lower crude oil prices and weakening refining and chemicals margins. “Despite the economic headwinds, we see signals that global demand remains resilient, supported by an ongoing recovery in the aviation sector,” Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told the media during a company earnings call Monday. The company is following its industry peers by boosting dividend payouts despite the sharp fall in profitability. The oil giant reaffirmed its first-quarter base dividend of $19.5 billion, paid in the second quarter, and declared a second-quarter dividend of $19.5 billion, to be delivered in the third quarter. Aramco also said it intends to distribute performance-linked dividends over six quarters, starting with a $9.9 billion distribution in the third quarter. “Our plan to maintain a sustainable and progressive dividend for our shareholders remains intact,” Nasser said. ‘Still a strong financial position’ This quarter’s result “is still a strong financial position. Yes, it’s not as astonishing as the results that we saw last year – but this is aligned with the overall industry trend,” Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Monday. The net income figure was a 38% decline from the previous year’s second-quarter earnings, which had hit a jaw-dropping net income of $48.4 billion. At the time, the second-quarter 2022 result was up 90% on the year, on the back of the energy price surge triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine.
OPECs oil production slumps as Saudi Arabia cuts output -- OPEC’s crude oil production from all its member states fell by 836,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 27.31 million bpd in July, due to a 968,000 bpd decline in Saudi output as the Kingdom nearly delivered its promised 1-million-bpd cut last month.Production in Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Nigeria dropped last month compared to June, while rising production from Iran, Angola, and Iraq offset some of the Saudi reduction, according to secondary sources in OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) published on Thursday.Libya and Iran, however, together with Venezuela, are exempted from the OPEC+ deal binding the other 10 OPEC members in production cuts.Saudi Arabia, leader of the cartel and the OPEC+ agreement, saw its crude oil production slump by 968,000 bpd from June to average 9.021 million bpd in July, per OPEC’s secondary sources in the report. Due to Saudi Arabia’s voluntary unilateral cut, the Kingdom’s crude oil production has now fallen below the production of Russia, the key partner of OPEC in the OPEC+ alliance. Libyan production dropped by 52,000 bpd and Nigerian output fell by 40,000 bpd, marking the other big drops in OPEC’s crude oil production last month. Iraq, Iran, Angola, and Venezuela boosted their respective output, according to OPEC’s secondary sources.Saudi Arabia will continue to drag OPEC’s production lower in August and September, too, after the Kingdom said last week it would extend its unilateral voluntary cut into September. Russia, for its part, also announced an extension in its export cuts into September, although the pledged cut will be lower than in August. Russia will cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said last week, shortly after the Saudi announcement of its production extension. Russia has said it would reduce its August oil exports by 500,000 bpd. Analysts and market participants expect the OPEC+ cuts to tighten the market for the rest of the year.
OPEC+ Oil Supply Plunges By 1.2 Million Bpd As Saudi Arabia Cuts Output --Oil supply from the OPEC+ group dipped in July by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 50.7 million bpd, the lowest level in nearly two years as Saudi Arabia began its unilateral production cut of 1 million bpd, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday. The alliance’s oil production was down by more than 2 million bpd from the start of the year. Over the same period, oil producers outside the OPEC+ group increased their combined production by 1.6 million bpd to 50.2 million bpd. For the rest of the year, the non-OPEC+ production gains are expected to be limited, the IEA said.OPEC alone saw its crude oil production from all its member states fall by 836,000 bpd to 27.31 million bpd in July, due to a 968,000 bpd decline in Saudi output as the Kingdom nearly delivered its promised 1-million-bpd cut last month. Saudi Arabia, leader of the cartel and the OPEC+ agreement, saw its crude oil production slump by 968,000 bpd from June to average 9.021 million bpd in July, per OPEC’s secondary sources in its latest monthly report. Due to Saudi Arabia’s cut, the Kingdom’s crude oil production has now fallen below the production of Russia, the key partner of OPEC in the OPEC+ alliance. Global oil supply plunged by 910,000 bpd to 100.9 million bpd in July, as the Saudi cut more than offset a 310,000 bpd increase in non-OPEC+ supply to 50.2 million bpd last month, the IEA’s estimates showed.This year, global oil output is set to rise by 1.5 million bpd to a record 101.5 million bpd, with the U.S. driving gains of 1.9 million bpd from non-OPEC+ producers. Next year, non-OPEC+ supply is also set to dominate world supply growth, and is expected to increase by 1.3 million bpd while OPEC+ could add just 160,000 bpd, the agency said.
Oil Prices Surge to Highest Since Mid-April After Attack on Russian Oil Hub and OPEC Production Cuts Oil prices reached their highest levels since mid-April after a series of significant events:
- Attack on Russian oil export hub: Ukraine conducted a naval drone attack on Russia’s port of Novorossiysk, a crucial hub for Russian oil exports. This attack heightened concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply.
- Extended production cuts by Saudi Arabia: The world’s top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, announced an extension of its voluntary crude oil output cut of one million barrels per day until the end of September. This measure aimed to limit oil supply and support prices.
- Production cuts by Russia: Russia, the second-largest oil exporter globally, also pledged to reduce oil exports by 300,000 million barrels per day in September.
Brent futures, the global benchmark, traded slightly below the flatline at $86.17 per barrel, marking the highest price since April 14. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures dipped 0.1% to $82.74 per barrel but remained close to mid-April highs.Josh Young, chief investment officer at Bison Interests, believes that the decline in supplies will lead to much higher prices in the future. Volatility expected: Young anticipates significant price fluctuations in the coming years due to the imbalance between supply and demand. Ed Morse, the global head of commodity research at Citi, projects that Saudi Arabia and Russia will gradually increase their output after September. He estimates that oil prices will peak at $90 per barrel at most this quarter, citing moderate demand growth.
Oil Shrugs off Black Sea Risk Ahead of US Inflation Report -- West Texas Intermediate futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange declined on Monday as market participants assessed risk to oil supply in the Black Sea against inflation pressures in the United States and Eurozone, where central banks pledged to continue restrictive monetary policy in their fight to reduce inflation. The Russian oil tanker "Sig" was attacked by a Ukrainian drone near the strategic Novorossiysk port on Saturday (7/5), 24 hours after the port was forced to briefly halt all traffic due to a drone attack on a Russian warship. Novorossiysk port processes nearly 1.9 million bpd or 2% of global oil supply. There was no public claim of responsibility by the Ukrainian government, which usually refrains from taking credit for attacks on Russian territory, but a source in Ukraine's Security Service, the SBU, told NBC News that it "blew up a large oil tanker of the Russian Federation" in a joint operation with the navy. Oil traders have so far brushed aside the latest geopolitical risk in the Black Sea. Lower crude oil contracts on Monday follow last week's 4% rally fueled by extended production and export cuts into September announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Saudi Arabia announced an extension of unilateral 1 million bpd production cut into September, while hinting that those cuts could be "deepened to support the market balances." Saudi Arabia's unilateral cut is atop of production reductions previously agreed to by the kingdom in the OPEC+ framework. Saudi oil production for September will be about 9 million bpd, the lowest output rate since 2012 outside of the pandemic. Russia last week said it would limit oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September from 500,000 bpd this month. On Thursday, U.S. Census Bureau will release its inflation report for July which could give investors greater insight into the likelihood of additional rate increases by the Federal Reserve. The consumer price index for July is expected to accelerate to 3.3% annually from 3% in June, while core inflation, which strips out volatile items like food and energy, is projected to have slowed to a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. The upcoming inflation data follows July's nonfarm employment report from the Labor Department released on Friday (8/4) showing job growth of 178,000, the slowest pace since early 2021. Investors are wagering the July employment report showed the U.S. labor market is cooling enough for the Federal Open Market Committee to maintain the federal funds rate in a 5.25% by 5.5% target range when they meet on Sept. 20. At settlement, the U.S. dollar index advanced 0.02% against a basket of foreign currencies to 101.861, with the dollar having an inverse relationship with West Texas Intermediate. WTI September futures on NYMEX declined $0.88 to settle at $81.94 bbl, and ICE October Brent settled down $0.90 to $85.34 bbl. NYMEX September RBOB futures advanced $0.0213 to $2.8044 gallon, while September ULSD contract fell $0.0467 gallon to $3.0155 gallon.
Oil reverses losses amid escalations in Russia-Ukraine war - Prices of Basra Heavy and Medium crude oil witnessed a robust surge on Tuesday, climbing more than 2% as the market reacted to changing dynamics. Basra Heavy crude recorded a notable increase of $1.79, equivalent to 2.16%, reaching $84.68 per barrel. Similarly, Basra Medium crude experienced a gain of $1.89, or 2.20%, settling at $87.83 per barrel. In contrast, Tuesday's global oil market demonstrated a slightly different trajectory. Oil prices edged lower in response to disappointing trade data from China, the world's largest oil importer. Imports and exports from the Asian economic powerhouse fell significantly more than anticipated, signaling sluggish growth. Despite these concerns, the decline in oil prices remained contained due to anticipated supply constraints. Brent crude futures registered at $85.05 per barrel, representing a marginal dip of 29 cents, or 0.34%, as of 0641 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude exhibited a similar trend, at $81.69 per barrel, experiencing a modest decrease of 25 cents, or 0.31%.
Basra Oil Prices Surge Over 2% on Tuesday - Shafaq News - Oil reversed losses after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his country would retaliate if Russia continues to block Ukrainian ports. Zelenskiy’s warning triggered fresh buying in the futures market as traders weighed the possibility of supply disruptions. Oil had advanced to the highest since April early in Monday’s trading, with the U.S. crude benchmark erasing year-to-date losses after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies cut production. On Tuesday, cartel leader Saudi Arabia reaffirmed its commitment to voluntarily curb supplies next month. Still, a weakening demand outlook is weighing on the market. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday lowered its forecast for U.S. consumption. Reports from OPEC and the International Agency coming later this week will offer further updates on the health of the market. Adding to bearish pressures, China’s trade plunged in July as slowing global demand clouded the outlook for exports, while the nation’s oil imports slipped to a six-month low. The dollar climbed and stocks fell as a ratings downgrade for 10 small- and midsized-U.S. lenders exacerbated worries of renewed banking tumult. Away from headline prices, Brent crude has weakened markedly versus other oil benchmarks in recent days. It’s now trading at a rare discount to Middle Eastern Dubai crude as OPEC+ output cuts lift the cost of heavier supplies, while its premium to WTI also has contracted to around the smallest since May. WTI for September delivery fell 0.8 per cent to US$82.59 a barrel at 1:55 p.m. in New York. Brent for October settlement dipped 0.7 per cent to $85.92 a barrel.
The Oil Market Rebounded from its Earlier Losses as the EIA Forecast a Better Economic Outlook Than Previously Expected - The oil market rebounded from its earlier losses as the EIA forecast a better economic outlook than previously expected. In overnight trading, the crude market sold off sharply and extended its losses to over $2 as it posted a low of $79.90. The market was pressured and traded below the lower boundary of its upward trending channel on economic data showing China's imports and exports fell more than expected in July. However, the market, which bounced off its low and retraced its losses, was well supported by the release of the EIA’s Short Tern Energy Outlook. The EIA projected GDP growth of 1.9% in 2023, up from a previous forecast of 1.5%. The EIA also forecast Brent crude oil prices will average $86/barrel in the second half of this year, up about $7/barrel from a previous forecast. The oil market rallied to a high of $83.08 ahead of the close as the market refocused on hopes for a recovery in U.S. oil demand. The September WTI contract settled up 98 cents at $82.92 and the October Brent contract settled up 83 cents at $86.17. The product markets ended higher, with the heating oil market settling up 7.01 cents at $3.0856 and the RB market settling up 4.07 cents at $2.8451. growth unchanged at 1.76 million bpd year on year. However, it cut its forecast for 2024 world oil demand growth by 30,000 bpd and now sees a 1.61 million bpd year on year increase. It forecast world oil demand in 2023 at 101.19 million bpd and demand in 2024 at 102.8 million bpd. The EIA reported that world oil output in 2023 is forecast to increase by 1.42 million bpd to 101.3 million bpd and by 1.7 million bpd to 103 million bpd in 2024. OPEC’s oil output is estimated to fall by 700,000 bpd to 33.47 million bpd in 2023 and increase by 490,000 bpd to 33.96 million bpd in 2024. The EIA reported that U.S. oil output is forecast to increase by 850,000 bpd to 12.76 million bpd in 2023 and by 330,000 bpd to 13.09 million bpd in 2024. U.S. petroleum demand is forecast to increase by 190,000 bpd to 20.47 million bpd in 2023 and by 280,000 bpd to 20.75 million bpd in 2024. U.S. gasoline demand is forecast to increase by 130,000 bpd to 8.91 million bpd in 2023 and remain unchanged in 2024 at 8.91 million bpd. U.S. distillate demand is expected to fall by 70,000 bpd to 3.89 million bpd in 2023 and increase by 90,000 bpd to 3.98 million bpd in 2024. The EIA said Brent crude prices are forecast to average $86/barrel in the second half of 2023, up about $7/barrel from its previous forecast last month.Saudi Arabia’s cabinet said it reaffirms its support for precautionary measures by OPEC+ to stabilize the oil market.Polish pipeline operator PERN said that it had restored the Druzhba oil pipeline to full functionality as expected, after a leak had been discovered. PERN halted pumping through a section of the pipeline, which connects Russia to Europe, after detecting a leak in central Poland on Saturday. On Sunday, the pipeline operator said there was no indication that a third party had caused the leak.Colonial Pipeline Co is allocating space for Cycle 47 shipments on Line 2, its main distillate line from Houston, Texas to Greensboro, North Carolina. This allocation is for the pipeline segment north of Collins, Mississippi.
Oil Gains After EIA Sees Tighter Market, Higher Oil Prices - Reversing morning losses triggered by weak trade data from China, oil futures settled Tuesday's session with solid gains after U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast the world oil market would slide into a supply deficit during the remainder of 2023, citing steep production cuts from OPEC+'s largest producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, and increased global oil consumption. In its Short-term Energy Outlook released this afternoon, EIA said it expects OPEC+ production cuts combined with higher demand to put downward pressure on global oil inventories through the end of the year. Washington-based energy watchdog estimates crude inventories across industrialized countries will decrease by an average of 400,000 bpd in the second half of the year before reversing back to builds in the second quarter of 2024. "The Brent crude oil spot price in our forecast increases in the coming months, reflecting our expectations of tightening balances in global oil markets. Crude oil prices begin to ease in 2Q24 as supply growth leads to some rebuilding of global oil inventories later in 2024," said EIA. United States, Canada, Brazil, Norway, and Guyana are expected to drive growth in global oil supply with combined production gains of 2.1 million bpd this year and 1.2 million bpd in 2024. The United States is expected to lead non-OPEC growth, contributing 1.3 million bpd of supply growth in 2023 and 500,000 bpd in 2024. Oil traders now await the release of weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute scheduled for 4:30 PM ET, followed by the official report from EIA Wednesday morning. Early in the session, oil futures came under selling pressure after China reported its outbound shipments plunged by more than 14% last month, posting its worst decline since the early days of the pandemic in February 2020. Shipments to the United States and European Union have been hit particularly hard, registering a 20% decline from a year earlier. The data clearly shows global demand for Chinese manufactured goods is lagging far behind pre-COVID trends amid ongoing trade tensions with Western economies and the "de-risking" of global supply chains. Russia was the only country that saw a major spike in Chinese exports, up 52% from a year earlier, led by shipments of automobiles and other high-value goods. Domestically, bank shares slumped and the U.S. dollar rallied in afternoon trade Tuesday after Moody Investors Services downgraded the credit rating of several U.S. regional banks, including M&T Bank, Pinnacle Financial, and Webster Financial among others. Moody has further warned that it is now reviewing six larger lenders for a potential credit downgrade. "Rising funding costs and declining income metrics will erode profitability, the first buffer against losses," said Moody's in explaining the downgrades. "Asset risk is rising, in particular for small and mid-size banks with large [commercial real estate] exposures." On the session, the U.S. dollar rallied 0.47% against a basket of foreign currencies to settle at 102.340, limiting gains for the West Texas Intermediate September contract, which gained $0.98 bbl to $82.92 bbl. ICE October Brent advanced $0.83 to $86.17 bbl. NYMEX September RBOB futures moved $0.0407 higher to $2.8451 gallon, while September ULSD contract advanced $0.0701 gallon to $3.0856.
Oil Hits Year to Date High as Supply Risks Climb -- Oil climbed to the highest in almost nine months on concern that a possible escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may choke off more supplies in an already tightening market. West Texas Intermediate futures ended the session above $84 a barrel, breaking through an earlier high for the year set in April. Prices held onto gains even after US government data showed crude inventories rose by about 5 million barrels last week as investors focused on fuel stockpiles that declined by the most in three months. “The demand-concern narrative is not a topic today as product inventories are low,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG. “It is more a market-tightness narrative that is driving oil.” Technical factors also are supporting prices after crude breached its April high, he added. The latest threat to supplies is the risk to Russian flows from the Black Sea after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his country would retaliate to prevent the OPEC+ producer from “blocking our waters.” The remarks followed a Ukrainian drone attack on an oil tanker over the weekend. Key market gauges have been pointing to tighter markets in recent days. The nearest timespread for WTI crude surged on Wednesday, along with its Brent equivalent. Stockpiles at the key storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, have declined for five of the past six weeks. Oil has rallied since late June following pledges by OPEC+ heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut supply, but headwinds still linger. China’s economic rebound remains sluggish, and the Energy Information Administration on Tuesday lowered its forecast for US consumption of products this year. “The fact that WTI has broken the post-OPEC high of $83.50 made in April means that people who had been bearish or skeptical of the group’s efforts working have been proven wrong,” said Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and Forex.com. “Oil prices should continue trending higher for as long as there is no major demand worries, so a move up to $85 looks increasingly likely from here.” The International Energy Agency and OPEC will release reports later this week that will provide snapshots of the oil market, which is expected to tighten through the second half of the year. WTI for September delivery rose $1.48 to settle at $84.40 a barrel in New York. Brent for October settlement increased $1.38 to settle at $87.55 a barrel.
Draws in U.S. Fuel Stocks Helped Offset Some Concerns of Weaker Demand from China --The oil market rallied higher on Wednesday as draws in U.S. fuel stocks helped offset some concerns of weaker demand from China as the country’s crude oil imports in July fell by 18.8% on the month to the lowest level since January. The market traded mostly sideways in overnight trading before it began its upward trend once again. The crude market was supported by fears that Ukraine could target ships heading to Russian Black Sea ports. Also, production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia continued to lend support to the market. The WTI contract traded higher and extended its gains to $1.73 and posted a high of $84.65, the highest level since November 2022, following the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stock reports. The oil complex was well supported by the larger than expected draws in product stocks, with a draw of 2.66 million barrels in gasoline stocks and a draw of 1.7 million barrels in distillate stocks. The market mostly shrugged off a large build of 5.85 million barrels in crude stocks following the record draw the week before. The oil market later erased most of its gains, retracing more than 62% of its rally before settling in a sideways trading range. The September WTI contract settled up $1.48 at $84.40, the highest level since November 16, 2022 and the October Brent contract settled up $1.38 at $87.55, the highest level since January 23rd. The product markets settled sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 12.14 cents at $3.2070 and the RB market settling up 8.33 cents at $2.9284. The EIA reported that crude oil stocks in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by 995,000 barrels in the week ending August 4th to 347.75 million barrels, the biggest weekly increase since June 2020. U.S. Energy Department has bought back some 6.3 million barrels of oil to refill the SPR in recent months, after the Biden administration released a record 180 million barrels from the reserve last year to control prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. U.S. net imports of crude oil increased by 14,000 bpd to 6.682 million bpd, the highest level since January 2022. Meanwhile, crude exports fell by 2.923 million bpd on the week to 2.360 million bpd. Exports fell by the most on record. The EIA also reported that crude oil production increased by 400,000 bpd on the week to 12.6 million bpd.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 212,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending August 11th, increasing available refining capacity by 131,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 180,000 bpd in the week ending August 18th.According to executives and analysts, top U.S. oil refiners will run their plants this quarter at up to 95% of their combined 17.9 million bpd capacity. The refining industry has been running at above 90% of capacity for more than a year on strong gasoline and diesel demand and high profit margins. Analysts said the new forecasts will be challenged by extreme heat that has blanketed the main U.S. refining hub on the Gulf Coast this summer, contributing to scattered outages. Marathon Petroleum, the largest refiner with 13 processing plants that provide 16% of U.S. refining throughput, aims to operate at 94% of its combined 2.9 million bpd capacity in the third quarter. The second-largest U.S. refiner, Valero Energy aims to process at up to 95% of its 3 million bpd capacity. Among smaller refiners, Par Pacific aims to operate at 92% of its capacity and HF Sinclair is targeting 94% of crude oil throughput.Colonial Pipeline Co is allocating space for Cycle 47 on Line 1, its main gasoline line from Houston, Texas to Greensboro, North Carolina. The current allocation is for the pipeline segment north of Collins, Mississippi.
Oil Prices Dip In Asian Trade Amid Chinese Economic Concerns - Despite sharp reductions in fuel stockpiles in the US and reductions in Saudi and Russian output, oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Thursday after reaching new highs in the previous session due to worries about the Chinese economy. After closing the previous session at its highest level since January 27, Brent crude decreased 20 cents, or 0.2%, to $87.35 per barrel by 0006 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $84.17 after reaching a high point not seen since November 2022. Since WTI is produced in the United States, primarily in the Permian Basin, it serves as the primary benchmark for oil in North America. Texas is the primary source of the oil. After that, it travels through pipelines to the Midwest and the Gulf of Mexico, where it is refined. Cushing, Oklahoma, serves as the primary delivery location for WTI’s physical exchange and price settlement. The Cushing hub delivery system consists of 16 storage terminals and 35 pipelines (20 inbound and 15 outbound). The hub stores 13% of the oil stored in the United States and has a storage capacity of 90 million barrels. The daily capacity for inbound and outbound shipping is 6.5 million barrels. “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World” refers to Cushing. According to data released by China on Tuesday, crude oil imports dropped 18.8% from June to July, reaching their lowest daily rate since January. As the world’s second-largest economy struggled to revive demand, China’s consumer sector also experienced deflation in July, and factory-gate prices continued to decline. Although distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.7 million barrels last week, versus analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for both to hold mostly steady, prices were supported by government data released on Wednesday that showed U.S. petrol stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels. The top exporter Saudi Arabia’s intention to extend its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day for an additional month, to include September, also helped to support prices. Russia also announced a 300,000 bpd reduction in oil exports for September. Additionally, investors were anticipating Thursday’s release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to show a slight year-over-year acceleration.
Oil settles lower as US rate hike fears subside, China demand weighs (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Thursday, with Brent crude holding close to January highs, as speculation about another U.S. interest rate hike faded following inflation data and OPEC remained positive on the oil demand outlook. Both benchmarks have been on a sustained rally since June, with West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) trading on Thursday at its highest this year and Brent hitting its highest price since January. Brent crude fell $1.15, or 1.3%, to settle at $86.40 a barrel while WTI settled down $1.58, or 1.9%, at $82.82. Oil prices have been boosted in recent days by extensions to output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, alongside supply fears driven by the potential for conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea region to threaten Russian oil shipments. But recent data showed the consumer sector in China fell into deflation and factory gate prices extended declines in July, raising concerns about fuel demand in the world's second-largest economy. The U.S. is also prohibiting some investment in China in sensitive technologies like computer chips and requires government notification in other tech sectors. "China's data just gets worse and worse, and this is only going to make it more difficult for China to ramp up its economy," Lending support to prices, OPEC said in its monthly report on Thursday it expected a healthy oil market for the rest of the year, and stuck by its forecast for robust oil demand in 2024, as the outlook for world economic growth slightly improves. Thursday's U.S. consumer prices data for July fuelled speculation the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its aggressive rate hike cycle. Markets largely shrugged off a higher-than-expected 5.85 million-barrel build in U.S. crude stocks reported on Wednesday, after a record drawdown the week before. Low inventory levels have pushed gasoline positions to their highest since the day Russia invaded Ukraine, and investors and analysts say they may continue to rise if record Atlantic Ocean heat draws a hurricane into the Gulf of Mexico and disrupts refineries. "With gasoline and distillate deficits expanding, both markets will likely prove sensitive to the first suggestion of a major storm event capable of working its way into the Gulf of Mexico with hurricane status," said John Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois.
Oil prices dip as investors balance China data and OPEC optimism - Shafaq News -- Oil prices fell marginally on Friday as investors weighed optimistic demand forecasts from the OPEC producer group against mixed economic data in top importer China. Brent crude fell 15 cents to $86.25 a barrel at 0515 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 13 cents at $82.69 a barrel. Both benchmarks have been on a sustained rally since June, with West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) trading on Thursday at its highest this year and Brent hitting its best price since January. "Oil markets may have been overbought from a multi-week rally, though OPEC+ output cuts and improved demand outlooks remained bullish factors," said Tina Teng, a market analyst at CMC Markets in Auckland. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)said on Thursday it expects world oil demand to rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, compared with growth of 2.44 million bpd in 2023. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month. In 2024, "solid" economic growth amid continued improvements in China is expected to boost oil consumption, it added. Market sentiment was also lifted by Thursday's U.S. consumer prices data for July, which fuelled speculation the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its aggressive rate hike cycle. However, Teng also noted that "China’s sluggish economic data and the retreat on Wall Street weighs on risk sentiment, and a strengthened USD also pressured commodity prices".
Oil Futures Settle Higher As IEA Report Forecasts Demand Growth, Tighter Supplies - Crude oil futures settled higher on Friday after a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast strong demand for oil and tightening supplies in the market. In a report released today, the IEA said global oil demand hit a record 103 million barrels per day in June and added that demand could scale another peak this month. The IEA also said output cuts from Russia and Saudi Arabia could result in a sharp decline in inventories over the rest of this year and lift oil prices even higher. The agency expects oil demand to grow by about 1 million barrels per day. However, that is down from its previous forecast by 150,000 barrels. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for September ended higher by $0.37 at $83.19 a barrel. Brent crude futures were up $0.30 or about 0.35% at $86.70 a barrel a little while ago. WTI and Brent crude futures, both recorded their seventh straight weekly uptick. The market also noted the OPEC's report released on Thursday which said global oil demand will likely rise by 2.25 million barrels per day next year, compared with growth of 2.44 million barrels per day in 2023. A report from Baker Hughes showed the total number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. fell by 5 this week to 654 this week. While the number of oil rigs stayed the same this week at 525, the number of gas rigs dropped by 5 to 123, the data said. Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, says, "Crude prices are resuming their bullish ascent as energy traders remain overly confident the oil market will remain tight. The oil rally is poise for a seventh straight week of gains and it doesn't seem like exhaustion is settling in yet. When the market gets complacent, sometimes that is when you get a decent pullback, but for now it seems any oil dips will be bought."
Oil Gains for 7th Week as IEA, OPEC See Tighter Oil Market - New York Mercantile Exchange West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange settled modestly higher on Friday, and advanced for the seventh consecutive week. The gains came after the three major forecasting agencies said this week global oil market fundamentals strengthened considerably over the summer months, which is reflected in widening backwardated market structures for the crude benchmarks. The International Energy Agency, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and U.S. Energy Informational Administration were in rare agreement this week with forecasts that the oil market will slide into deeper deficit through the end of 2023 on steep production cuts from OPEC+ and stronger oil consumption. On the demand side, IEA Friday morning said worldwide oil demand climbed to a fresh record-high 103 million barrels per day (bpd) over the June-July period, and is likely to soar higher in August, bringing annualized growth in oil consumption to 2.2 million bpd. Next year, the Paris-based energy watchdog expects demand growth to moderate to 1 million bpd amid macroeconomic headwinds in China and an environment of high interest rates in countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development bloc. "World oil demand is scaling record highs, boosted by strong summer air travel, increased oil use in power generation and surging Chinese petrochemical activity," said IEA in its August Oil Market Report. Meanwhile, the largest oil producers with OPEC+, Saudi Arabia and Russia, continue to restrain supplies to the global oil market in their efforts to boost prices and revenue. In its Monthly Oil Market Report released on Thursday, OPEC said Saudi oil production plunged by 968,000 bpd last month to 9.021 million bpd -- the lowest output rate since the global disruption caused by the pandemic in 2020. Saudi Arabia on Aug. 3 extended a 1-million-bpd production cut for a third month into September and said it could further extend the cut or even deepen the reduction into the fourth quarter. Russia also saw a steep decline to its crude output and exports, according to OPEC, with oil production falling to 9.93 million bpd in the third quarter, down from 11.2 million bpd reported at the start of the year. On a combination of OPEC+ cuts and higher demand expectations, EIA projected global oil inventories to decline consistently through the end of the year, putting upward pressure on oil prices. The Washington-based energy watchdog estimates crude inventories across industrialized countries will decrease by an average of 400,000 bpd in the second half of the year before reversing back to builds in the second quarter 2024. United States, Canada, Brazil, Norway, and Guyana are expected to drive growth in global oil supply with combined production gains of 2.1 million bpd this year and 1.2 million bpd in 2024. The United States is expected to lead non-OPEC growth, contributing 1.3 million bpd of supply growth in 2023 and 500,000 bpd in 2024. At settlement, NYMEX WTI September futures gained $0.37 to $83.19 per barrel (bbl), and ICE Brent October futures finished the session at $86.81 per bbl, up $0.41. NYMEX September RBOB futures advanced $0.0602 to $2.9649 per gallon, and the September ULSD contract settled the session at $3.1215 per gallon, retreating for the second straight session from a six-month high $3.2070 per gallon settlement.
Venezuela's BRICS Application: Expert Offers Insight on Potential Entry - Venezuela's bid to join BRICS comes amid its ongoing economic and political crisis, which has been exacerbated by US sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic. As the South American country has struggled with hyperinflation, President Nicolas Maduro has accused the US of waging an "economic war" against his government.Venezuela, the South American country with the world’s largest proven oil reserves, has officially applied to join the BRICS group of major emerging economies. The announcement was made by President Nicolas Maduro last week, who expressed his hope that the application will be approved soon.BRICS, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, accounts for about 31.5% of the global gross domestic product (GDP) and 40% of the world's population. The group also operates a development bank and a contingency reserve arrangement to support its members and other developing countries.According to Fan Hesheng, director of the Institute of Latin American Studies at Anhui University in China, Venezuela wants to join BRICSfor several reasons."First, Venezuela has a good understanding of the identity of BRICS countries, because all BRICS countries are developing countries, especially big countries like China and Russia," the political scientist told Sputnik. "Second, the BRICS countries are strong in terms of economic strength and industrialization capacity, which Venezuela also appreciates."Furthermore, Hesheng emphasized that the BRICS countries have performed well in recent years in terms of industrial capacity and financial sustainability. According to the Chinese expert, the third reason is that Caracas values the sense of self-identity and mutual support among the BRICS countries, which can provide an alternative platform for cooperation and multilateralism.
Over 3,000 US Marines and Sailors Arrive in Middle East in Deployment Aimed at Iran - Over 3,000 US Marines and Navy sailors arrived in the Middle East on Sunday as part of a previously announced deployment aimed at Iran as tensions are rising in the region.The troops are part of an Amphibious Readiness Group/Marine Expeditionary Unit (ARG/MEU) and arrived onboard the amphibious assault ship USS Bataan and dock landing ship USS Carter Hall. The vessels entered the Red Sea on Sunday after transiting through the Suez Canal.Responding to the deployment, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani accused the US military of fueling regional instability. “The US government’s military presence in the region has never created security. Their interests in this region have always compelled them to fuel instability and insecurity,” he said. “We are deeply convinced that the countries of the Persian Gulf are capable of ensuring their own security.”US Naval Central Forces Central Command said the deployment is a response to “harassment and seizures of merchant vessels.” Iran seized two tankers in the Persian Gulf earlier this year, but the incidents were provoked by the US seizing a tanker carrying Iranian oil.Under the pretext of sanctions enforcement, the US Justice Department seized the Greek tanker Suez Rajan in April and forced the ship to head for Texas instead of China as the US intended to steal the 800,000 barrels of Iranian oil it was carrying. According to recent media reports, US companies are hesitant to discharge the oil because they fear reprisal from Iran in the Persian Gulf, and the Suez Rajan is stuck off the coast of Texas.Tensions have soared in the Persian Gulf since April, and the US has announced a series of deployments meant to deter more Iranian seizures. Last month, the US claimed it stopped Iranian forces from seizing two commercial vessels near Oman. The US military is now considering placing armed troops on commercial vessels, an unprecedented move that would significantly heighten the risk of a direct clash with Iran.
Syria: Iran's Kanaani Blames Foreign Intervention for Islamic State Escalation - Per Syrian state media, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani condemned a Friday Islamic State attack on a Syrian military bus (other sources claim the target consisted of two trucks), which resulted in the deaths of at least 20 government soldiers. Kanaani claimed that recent escalations in IS violence are “the result of the continuation of intelligence, security and logistical support for the terrorists that are provided by some countries with the purpose of undermining stability, calm and security in Syria.”Claims vary as to the total casualty count. The Associated Press cites the (UK-based) Syrian Observatory for Human Rights as putting the death toll at 33, with the Islamic State claiming 40 killed and 10 wounded. The attack took place in Deir el-Zour province.The Islamic State’s claimed caliphate lost control of its last formally claimed territory to a US-backed Kurdish offensive in 2019, but its “sleeper cells” continue to conduct attacks on both civilian and Syrian military targets including, earlier this year, massacres of truffle hunters in the Palmyra area. The group also announced a change in leadership last week, and new “caliph” Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Quraishi may be attempting to make his mark with an increased tempo of operations.The fourth “caliph,” Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurayshi, supposedly died in April when, according to Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he blew himself up during a Turkish raid on his safe house). The Islamic state announced his death in early August, but said he died in combat with a Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate.
Ukraine declares war on Russia’s Black Sea shipping – Russian ports and ships on the Black Sea — including tankers carrying millions of barrels of oil to Europe — could justifiably be attacked by the Ukrainian military as part of efforts to weaken Moscow's war machine, a senior Kyiv official warned Monday in the wake of two recent attacks on Russian vessels. "Everything the Russians are moving back and forth on the Black Sea are our valid military targets," Oleg Ustenko, an economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told POLITICO, saying the move was retaliation for Russia withdrawing from the U.N.-brokered Black Sea grain deal and unleashing a series of missile attacks on agricultural stores and ports. “This story started with Russia blocking the grain corridor, threatening to attack our vessels, destroying our ports,” Ustenko said. “Our maritime infrastructure is under constant attack." Over the weekend, Ukraine declared the waters around Russia’s Black Sea ports a “war risk area” from August 23 “until further notice.” The zone includes major Russian ports like Novorossiysk, Anapa, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi and Taman. That's causing insurance rates for ships to skyrocket and could imperil one of Russia's main export routes for oil and oil products — key in ensuring the Kremlin has enough cash to keep waging war against Ukraine. “After this weekend, the Black Sea feels like a more dangerous place for international shipping, and it was already very dangerous,” said Byron McKinney, director with S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Many vessels simply don’t go to the area. Insurance is pretty much nonexistent. Where there are insurance rates they’re very high and that’s only going to increase.”On Saturday, Russia’s federal maritime agency, Rosmorrechflot, reported that a Russian tanker, the Sig, had been hit in an apparent strike by Ukrainian forces while sailing close to Ukraine’s occupied Crimean peninsula.“The tanker received a hit on its engine room, close to the waterline on the starboard side, presumably as a result of an attack by a sea drone,” officials said.Ukraine’s defense ministry said that as long as Russians “terrorize peaceful Ukrainian cities and destroy grain condemning hundreds of millions to starvation,” there would be “no more safe waters or peaceful harbors for you in the Black and Azov Seas.”
Drone attack on tanker shows Kyiv’s intent to hit Russian energy shipments – An overnight naval drone attack against a Russian tanker in the Black Sea signals a potential new front in the Ukraine war, with Kyiv delivering its strongest message to date that it is willing to target Moscow's all-important shipments of oil and fuel. The battle for supremacy in the Black Sea is ramping up fast, with massive implications for global energy and food security. The attack on the tanker off Crimea came only a day after another Ukrainian marine drone — a flat, arrowhead-shaped vessel packed with explosives — targeted a Russian naval base near the port of Novorossiysk, badly damaging a warship.“The tanker was damaged in the Kerch Strait during an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces," Russia's state-run TASS news agencyreported on Saturday. "The crew is safe, the Maritime Rescue Center informed us. The engine room was damaged. Two tugboats arrived at the scene of an emergency with a tanker in the Kerch Strait, the question of the towing vessel is being resolved,” it said.Russia's Federal Marine and River Transport Agency reported it was a SIG oil and chemical tanker — a ship whose owner, St. Petersburg-based company Transpetrochart, was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2019 for supplying jet fuel for Russian forces in Syria.Tensions are rising in the Black Sea after Russia last month announced it was withdrawing from the U.N.-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative and started attacking Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea coast and on the Danube River with missiles, destroying tens of thousands of tons of Ukrainian grain. After those attacks and the blockade, Ukrainian officials issued a statement in July that Russian vessels will be no longer safe in the Black Sea. Kyiv's defense ministry said in a statement that such vessels "may be considered by Ukraine as carrying military cargo with all the corresponding risks" from midnight Friday.On Saturday, Kyiv announced a "war risk area" around Russian ports on the Black Sea, specifically citing the ports of Novorossiysk, Anapa, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi and Taman. The declaration will be in effect from August 23 “until further notice,” it said. Marine Traffic, an online maritime tracking site, has the latest position of the SIG tanker fixed near the Kerch Strait “at anchor.” Russia's Marine and River Transport Agency reported all 11 crew members on board were safe and that the tanker was struck in the engine room near the waterline on the starboard side, presumably as a result of an attack by a marine drone. By morning, the water pouring to the engine room has been staunched, and the vessel was afloat, Russian official said.
Oil Reaction Surprisingly Muted As Kiev Expands Conflict With Attacks On Russian Oil Exports - As Bloomberg Markets live commentator Jake Lloyd-Smith writes this morning, oil’s had "a curiously muted reaction" to the latest twist in the war in Ukraine, with Brent getting only a small lift before trading flat and then dipping into the red. For those who missed the latest news, on Saturday a Russian oil tanker was hit by a Ukrainian sea drone in the Kerch Strait. In addition, on Friday, Ukraine attacked a Russian naval ship with a sea drone in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Kiev recently said that it had designated six Black Sea ports - a vital conduit for its crude - as being in "war risk" areas, indicating that there could be further attacks on Russian territory. As Academy Securities reports, "Ukraine’s goal in attacking the tanker was to increase insurance costs for Russia’s partners that are buying oil and shipping it out of those ports, which raises the true cost of buying “discounted” Russian oil and hurts Russia financially." The number of attacks in the Black Sea by both Ukraine and Russia have increased since Moscow terminated the grain deal last month that had allowed Ukraine to continue to export grain to alleviate the global food crisis. With Ukraine’s land-based counteroffensive making no progress in the latest humiliation to NATO forces which are waging war against Russia by Ukraine proxy, Kiev is now looking to expand the conflict into the Black Sea and even into Moscow where Ukrainian drones attacked buildings last week; indeed, as Ukraine’s defense ministry said in a Saturday post that “Two can play that game” in response to Russian attacks on Ukraine grain infrastructure.
Russia Says Ukraine Used Storm Shadow Missiles to Hit Bridge Connecting Kherson to Crimea - The acting governor of Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine’s southern Kherson Oblast said Sunday that Ukrainian forces used British-provided Storm Shadow missiles to strike a bridge that connects Kherson to Crimea.Vladimir Saldo said the Ukrainian attack struck the Chongar Bridge and the village of Chongar in southern Kherson. “Kiev’s terrorists shelled the Chongar Bridge and the settlement of Chongar with NATO’s Storm Shadows,” Saldo wrote on Telegram. Saldo also claimed that Storm Shadow missiles damaged a school. “The bridge was damaged by a missile, but the most vile thing done by the Kiev regime is that a school in the settlement was hit,” he said. No casualties were reported in the Ukrainian attack.The UK began providing Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles back in May, which marked a significant escalation of NATO support. France announced in July that it would begin supplying Ukraine with its version of the Storm Shadows, known as SCALP missiles.Storm Shadows are air-fired and have a range of 155 miles, much longer than the munitions the US has been providing Ukraine for the HIMARS artillery rocket systems.The primary munitions Ukraine has been using with the HIMARS have a range of up to 50 miles, although there have been reports of Kyiv using US-provided Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB), which can hit targets up to 94 miles away. The US is still holding off on giving Kyiv Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which have a range of 190 miles.
Russia Says It Shot Down More Drones Headed Toward Moscow - The Russian Defense Ministry said Wednesday that it shot down two drones overnight that were headed toward Moscow as there’s been a significant uptick in Ukrainian attacks on the capital city.“An attempt by the Kiev regime to carry out a terrorist attack by unmanned aerial vehicles over the territory of the Moscow Region was thwarted during the night. Two drones were shot down by air defense systems,” the Russian Defense Ministry said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.According to The New York Times, Russian officials have said they intercepted a total of 12 drones targeting Moscow over the past few weeks as the attempts to hit the city have become a near-daily occurrence. Some drones have struck buildings in Moscow, causing minor damage.The uptick in attacks on Moscow came as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the war was “gradually returning to Russia’s territory, to its symbolic centers and military bases.” Ukraine has broken from its previous policy of being ambiguous about who was behind attacks inside Russian territory.In early June, the Times reported that the Biden administration was no longer concerned about Ukrainian attacks inside Russia escalating the war, signaling that the US tacitly backs operations against Moscow. The report said that during the first year of the war, the administration was worried Russia could retaliate by attacking NATO.
Zelensky Fires the Heads of All Local Draft Boards After Corruption Scandal - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he was firing dozens of officials responsible for overseeing military recruitment in each region of the country. The leader claimed the officials were engaging in “revolting” abuses of power.Last week, Zelensky said his administration had conducted a sweeping investigation into the practices at recruitment centers. “The investigation is revealing numerous abuses. And they are frankly revolting.”On Friday, Zelsnsky explained that the investigation resulted in 33 officials overseeing conscription being changed with 113 crimes. “During the inspection of the territorial recruitment centers, law enforcement agencies exposed cases of corruption, in particular during the general mobilization, which pose a threat to Ukraine’s national security and undermine confidence in state institutions,” Zelensky said in a video address.Officials heading the conscription office in Odessa were fired after acquiring over $5 million in unaccounted for funds.While Kiev did not give a detailed accounting of the crimes committed, Zelensky explained most crimes involved bribing officials to avoid service in the military. “Some [officials] took cash, some took cryptocurrency – that’s the only difference.” Zelensky continued, “The cynicism is the same everywhere. Illicit enrichment, legalization of illegally obtained funds, illegal benefit, illegal transportation of persons liable for military service across the border.”Zelensky assigned Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhny the responsibility of instilling new officials. He called on the Ukrainian intelligence service to vet all candidates and insisted that the new recruitment officials be injured soldiers.Corruption has been a rampant problem within the Ukrainian government for years. In January, Zelensky fired several senior officials for corruption. In March, The Wall Street Journal documented Ukrainians paying bribes to officials to avoid being drafted. Young Ukrainian men drafted into the military have received minimal training, and many have died within a few days of reaching the front lines. On Thursday, the Washington Post reported that morale was plummeting among Ukrainians. One soldier said if given the chance to remake his choice, he would have decided against joining the armed forces.
Poland to Deploy 10,000 Additional Troops to Belarus Border - Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said Thursday that Warsaw plans to deploy 10,000 troops to its border with Belarus as part of a buildup that began after Wagner fighters traveled to Belarus.“About 10,000 soldiers will be on the border, of which 4,000 will directly support the Border Guard and 6,000 will be in the reserve,” Blaszczak said. “We move the army closer to the border with Belarus to scare away the aggressor so that it does not dare to attack us.”His comments came a day after another Polish official said Warsaw was planning to send 2,000 troops to the border.Polish officials estimate there are 4,000 Wagner members in Belarus. Last week, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki claimed the Russian mercenaries were sent to Belarus to “destabilize” NATO’s eastern flank and warned they could be planning “provocations.”Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has played into the Polish fearsby claiming that Wagner fighters said they wanted to go to Poland. Wagner members also recently conducted drills near the Polish border.The Polish-Belarusian border has become a potential flashpoint for a conflict between NATO and Russia as Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned he would treat an attack on Belarus as an attack on Russia. The US and NATO have repeatedly vowed to defend the alliance’s “eastern flank,” referring to Poland and other Eastern European NATO members.
The Road That Could Ignite a War in the Caucasus --Azerbaijan has been blockading the lone road that leads to the region of Nagorno-Karabakh for more than seven months. Residents are reportedly running out of fuel and food. Ever since the breakup of the USSR, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in a dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave recognized as Azerbaijani territory by the international community but mostly populated by ethnic Armenians.They fought a war there three years ago when Azerbaijan grabbed land in a six-week conflict that led to roughly 7,000 deaths. There have been periodic skirmishes ever since. While Nagorno-Karabakh is important to both sides, I don’t believe it is the primary reason Azerbaijan continues the blockade. The real reason is that Baku wants a peace deal that includes the opening of the Zangezur corridor – which would connect Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave wedged between Armenia, Turkiye, and Iran. The problem for Azerbaijan and Turkiye, which also wants the corridor, is that it risks a wider war. Iran has said such a corridor is a red line. Such a corridor would mean goods and energy could flow freely between Azerbaijan and Turkiye without having to be rerouted through Iran, thereby eliminating the lucrative fees Tehran charges for such transfers. This is part of the reason Iran is so opposed to such a plan and has beefed up its presence along its border with Armenia.The nine-point ceasefire agreement signed under Russian mediation that ended the 2020 war included a stipulation that Armenia is responsible for ensuring the security of transport links between the western regions of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic, facilitating the unhindered movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions. Azerbaijan and Turkiye have latched onto that point, insisting they have the right to set up transportation links through southern Armenia.Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is demanding that the corridor be opened as part of any lasting peace. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated that point on July 31, according to Hurriyet. Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the same. According to Asbarez:“The road to regional stability is through a comprehensive peace agreement. For this, the opening of the ‘Zangezur corridor’ is of great importance,” Fidan said.Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has conceded on the issue of Nagorno, accepting that it is part of Azerbaijan. That was more than two months ago, and yet the blockade continues because what Baku really wants is the corridor, and it is willing to starve the people of Nagorno-Karabakh and risk war to get it.Both Azerbaijan and Turkiye have proceeded since the 2020 war as if the corridor is on the verge of becoming a reality. Both have been working on highways and rail lines where the only missing link is the roughly 10-mile stretch through Armenia. Back in January Aliyev declared that the project “will happen whether Armenia wants it to or not.”It remains to be seen if he will be so confident going against Iran’s wishes. Tensions have been steadily rising between Tehran and Baku in recent months. Azerbaijan and Israel are now alleging that Armenia is using Iranian Shaheed drones, which would mark a major increase in Tehran’s support for Yerevan and the latest escalation over the Zangezur issue. Armenia has denied using Iranian drones.Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen announced the creation of a “united front against Iran” during a press conference with his Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov in Jerusalem for the opening of Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tel Aviv at the end of March. The close ties between the two are nothing new (Azerbaijan is Israel’s largest energy provider and the latter supplies the large majority of weapons to the former), but have ratcheted up in recent months.In addition to escalating military exercises on their common border, Baku and Tehran are increasingly at odds over a range of other incidents. On Jan. 27, an attack by a gunman carried out at Baku’s embassy in the Iranian capital left the head of the embassy’s security services dead and two security guards injured. Azerbaijan quickly evacuated the diplomatic post.Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry in late March accused Iran of being behind the shooting attack near Baku that left a member of parliament wounded. Azerbaijani media have speculated that some of the six individuals detained in the shooting lived or traveled to Iran at various times and that the primary attacker received training from Iranian special forces. Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry on April 6 also expelled four Iranian Embassy employees after declaring them persona non grata. Shortly after reports emerged about Azerbaijan arresting hundreds more while the media labeled them Iranian spies. Cohen was recently in Azerbaijan to open Israel’s first embassy in the country, which is located just 12 miles from the Iranian border.
Hiroshima Mayor Calls Nuclear Deterrence a 'Folly' - Hiroshima Mayor Kazumi Matsui on Sunday called for world leaders to recognize the “folly” of nuclear deterrence at a ceremony marking the 78th anniversary of the US dropping an atomic bomb on the city, killing an estimated 140,000 people.“Leaders around the world must confront the reality that nuclear threats now being voiced by certain policymakers reveal the folly of the theory of nuclear deterrence,” Matsui said, according to Kyodo News. “They must immediately take concrete steps to lead us from the dangerous present toward our ideal world.”Matsui urged Japan to join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which bans nuclear weapons and currently has 92 signatories. Tokyo has faced criticism from anti-nuclear weapons activists for paying lip service to the idea of establishing a nuclear-free world while being under the protection of the US nuclear umbrella and rapidly building up its military.Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who represents Hiroshima in parliament, also spoke at the ceremony. “Seventy-eight years ago today, a single atomic bomb deprived people said to number well more than 100,000 of their precious lives. It reduced the city to ashes and deprived people of their dreams and bright futures in an instant. Even those who escaped death suffered hardships that words cannot describe,” he said. Discussing current global tensions, Kishida singled out Russia for its “nuclear threat” and made no mention of the fact that it was the US that dropped the atomic bomb on Hiroshima. The US recently engaged in a blatant nuclear provocation in the region by docking a nuclear-armed submarine in South Korea for the first time since 1981.Back in May, Group of Seven leaders held a summit in Hiroshima and gathered at the memorial in the city for the victims of the US bombing. After the visit, the G7 released a statement claiming that they are working toward a “world without nuclear weapons.” But policies announced by the G7 during the summit have brought the world closer to nuclear war, including President Biden giving the green light to send US-made F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.
Nigeria Senate Warns Against Military Intervention in Niger - Nigeria’s Senate has warned against military intervention in neighboring Niger after Nigerian President Bola Tinubu requested backing for such an action against Niger’s new military junta.Nigeria currently holds the rotating presidency of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which has threatened to use military force if Niger’s President Mohamed Bazoum is not reinstated by Sunday. While the deadline has passed, there’s no sign of an imminent ECOWAS intervention in Niger. ECOWAS officials met Friday and said that they finalized intervention plans but did not indicate when they plan on launching the attack.Nigerian Senate President Godswill Akpabio said Saturday that he urged President Tinubu for ECOWAS to consider all diplomatic and political options before resorting to military intervention. Senators from northern Nigeria particularly stressed exhausting all diplomatic avenues since their region borders Niger.“We also take exception to the use of military force until other avenues as mentioned above are exhausted as the consequences will be casualties among the innocent citizens who go about their daily business,” said Sumaila Kawu, a spokesman for a group of northern Senators.The junta in Niger has stood firm against pressure from ECOWAS, which has included harsh sanctions. The coup leaders have shown no sign of planning to relinquish power or release Bazoum.The US is calling for Bazoum’s release and has backed the ECOWAS threats to intervene in Niger. There are about 1,100 US troops stationed in Niger and a major American drone base is in the country. France has about 1,500 troops in Niger and has also backed ECOWAS threats against the coup government.
China Tells the Philippines to Remove Grounded Ship from Disputed Reef in South China Sea - China has called on the Philippines to remove a grounded warship from a disputed reef in the South China Sea after an encounter in the area between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels.Over the weekend, Chinese vessels fired water cannons at Philippine boats trying to resupply the grounded ship on Second Thomas Shoal, a feature of the Spratly Islands. Manila grounded a World War II-era ship, the BRP Sierra Madre, on the shoal in 1999 to assert its claims and has used it as a base of operations in the area.While Beijing is calling for the Philippines to remove the vessel, Philippine officials say they will never give up the shoal. “For the record: We will never abandon Ayungin Shoal. We are committed to Ayungin Shoal,” said Philippines’ National Security Council spokesman Jonathan Malaya, using the Philippine name for the shoal.Second Thomas Shoal and other areas in the South China Sea have become a potential flashpoint for a war between the US and China. The US has repeatedly vowed that attacks on Philippine vessels in the waters would invoke the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty and did so again after the latest incident.“The United States reaffirms an armed attack on Philippine public vessels, aircraft, and armed forces — including those of its Coast Guard in the South China Sea — would invoke US mutual defense commitments under Article IV of the 1951 US Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in a statement on Saturday.US military officials have previously said that the US is “ready” to help the Philippines resupply the BRP Sierra Madre. If the US tries to assist with resupplying the ship, it could lead to dangerous encounters between US and Chinese vessels.
China’s exports plunged by 14.5% in July, adding to pressure to shore up flagging economy - (AP) — China’s exports plunged by 14.5% in July compared with a year earlier, adding to pressure on the ruling Communist Party to reverse an economic slump.Exports fell to $281.8 billion as the decline widened from June’s 12.4% fall, customs data showed Tuesday. Imports tumbled 12.4% from a year earlier to $201.2 billion in a sign of weak domestic demand, widening from the previous month’s 6.8% contraction.The country’s global trade surplus narrowed by 20.4% from a record high a year ago to $80.6 billion.Chinese leaders are trying to shore up business and consumer activity after a rebound following the end of anti-virus controls in December fizzled out earlier than expected.Economic growth sank to 0.8% in the three months ending in June compared with the previous quarter, down from the January-March period’s 2.2%. That is the equivalent of 3.2% annual growth, which would be among China’s weakest in three decades.The ruling party has promised measures to support entrepreneurs and to encourage home purchases and consumer spending but hasn’t announced large-scale stimulus spending or tax cuts.Demand for Chinese exports cooled after the Federal Reserve and central banks in Europe and Asia started raising interest rates last year to cool inflation that was at multi-decade highs.The export contraction was the biggest since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, according to Capital Economics. It said the decline was due mostly to lower prices, while volumes of goods were above pre-pandemic levels.
Germany has spent €55K on Merkel’s hair and makeup since she left office – The German government has splashed out almost €55,000 on former German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s hair and makeup since she left office in 2021. Despite departing Germany’s top job almost two years ago, Merkel is still billing the federal government for several expenses, according to documents obtained by Tagesspiegel via a Freedom of Information Act request. Merkel, according to a previous Tagesspiegel report, did not retain her longtime former makeup artist, but now relies on a new self-employed hair and makeup artist, who also works as a fashion designer, based in Berlin. The chancellery pays for Merkel’s hair and makeup for both public and private engagements. So far she has racked up a €17,200 bill in 2023, in addition to a €37,780 bill in 2022.“The assumption of costs is linked to the performance of continuing official duties — regardless of whether they are public or non-public,” the German chancellery told Tagesspiegel.Rising costs of officials’ hair and makeup services have sparked some criticism in the past, with The Taxpayers’ Association’s President Reiner Holznagel saying costs should be “reduced to the bare minimum and, in case of doubt, paid privately.”Current German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also does not spare expenses for his public outings, reported Tagesspiegel. So far this year, representatives of the chancellery have spent €21,808 on hairstyle and makeup expenses, while the number reached €39,910 in 2022.Numbers from a parliamentary inquiry earlier this year had shown that spending on photographers, hairdressers, and makeup artists rose to around €1.5 million in the first full year of Scholz’s government in 2022. That was nearly 80 percent more than in 2021, the last year of Merkel’s government.Last week, Bavaria’s state leader Markus Söder made headlines when it was reported that his office had splurged nearly €180,000 on freelance photographers in 2022 alone. This was in addition to €36,000 a year for a permanently employed photographer. The state chancellery said it hires photographers “on an occasion-related basis at an agreed hourly or daily rate … The images were for press and public relations purposes and for documentation.”
From Covert To Overt: UK Govt & Businesses Unleash Facial Recognition Technologies Across Urban Landscape - The Home Office is encouraging police forces across the country to make use of live facial recognition technologies for routine law enforcement. Retailers are also embracing the technology to monitor their customers. It increasingly seems that the UK decoupled from the European Union, its rules and regulations, only for its government to take the country in a progressively more authoritarian direction. This is, of course, a generalised trend among ostensibly “liberal democracies” just about everywhere, including EU Member States, as they increasingly adopt the trappings and tactics of more authoritarian regimes, such as restricting free speech, cancelling people and weakening the rule of law. But the UK is most definitely at the leading edge of this trend. A case in point is the Home Office’s naked enthusiasm for biometric surveillance and control technologies.This week, for example, The Guardian revealed that the Minister for Policing Chris Philip and other senior figures of the Home Office had held a closed-door meeting with Simon Gordon, the founder of Facewatch, a leading facial recognition retail security company, in March. The main outcome of the meeting was that the government would lobby the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) on the benefits of using live facial recognition (LFR) technologies in retail settings. LFR involves hooking up facial recognition cameras to databases containing photos of people. Images from the cameras can then be screened against those photos to see if they match. The lobbying effort was apparently successful. Just weeks after reaching out to the ICO, the ICO sent a letter to Facewatch affirming that the company “has a legitimate purpose for using people’s information for the detection and prevention of crime” and that its services broadly comply with UK Data Protection laws, which the Sunak government and UK intelligence agencies are trying to gut. As the Guardian report notes, “the UK’s data protection and information bill proposes to abolish the role of the government-appointed surveillance camera commissioner along with the requirement for a surveillance camera code of practice.” The ICO’s approval gives legal cover to a practice that is already well established. Facewatch has been scanning the faces of British shoppers in thousands of retail stores across the UK for years. The cameras scan faces as people enter a store and screens them against a database of known offenders, alerting shop assistants if a “subject of interest” has entered. Shops using the technologies have placed notices in their windows (such as the one below) informing customers that facial recognition technologies are in operation, “to protect” the shop’s “employees, customers and stock.” But it is far from clear how many shoppers actually take notice of the notices.
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