week ending Aug 5

Fed's Goolsbee says next rate move is open even as inflation eases - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said data showing slower U.S. inflation is "fabulous news" but he hasn't yet decided on whether to support pausing interest-rate increases at the next policy meeting. "I haven't made up my mind for what should happen in September," Goolsbee said Monday in an interview on Yahoo! Finance. "But this golden path — which so far, we're sticking on that line — that would be a triumph, and it's certainly a possibility at this point," he said, referring to being able to get inflation to the Fed's goal without triggering a recession. Goolsbee, a voter on monetary policy this year, said the Fed will have to "play by ear" on whether the policy rate is sufficiently restrictive. "We'll get several more major data points before the next meeting," he said. "But it's looking like we're walking the line pretty well." The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its July 25-26 meeting, bringing the fed funds rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in 22 years. Policymakers have slowed the pace of increases after aggressively tightening rates to bring down inflation that last year reached a 40-year high. This month's hike followed a pause at the June meeting. A report Friday showed the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 3% from a year earlier in June, the smallest increase in more than two years. Core prices — which exclude food and energy and are regarded as a more reliable signal of underlying inflation — advanced 4.1%, also the least since 2021 and slower than estimated. Other reports last week showed the U.S. economy grew at a stronger-than-expected pace in the second quarter, and that labor costs cooled in the period, while consumer spending remains robust. The U.S. economy's resilience, especially in the face of significant tightening by the Fed, has driven staff economists at the central bank and some of their private-sector peers to remove calls for a recession from their forecasts.

Fed's Barkin says inflation-rate drop may be soft-landing signal -Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said the greater-than-expected easing in inflation in June may be an indication that the U.S. economy can have a "soft landing," returning to price stability without a damaging recession. "There is still a plausible story that inflation normalizes in short order and the economy dodges additional trauma," Barkin said Thursday in a speech in Blacksburg, Virginia. "Certainly, last month's inflation read was a good one and I hope it is a sign. To be sure, the Fed's objective is not to cause a recession; it's to reduce inflation, in line with our mandate." Barkin didn't specifically address the need for still higher interest rates in his prepared remarks. The Federal Open Market Committee meets next in September, so policymakers will get additional reads on inflation and employment prior to that decision. A report Friday showed the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 3% from a year earlier in June, the smallest increase in more than two years. Core prices — which exclude food and energy and are regarded as a more reliable signal of underlying inflation — advanced 4.1%. The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its July 25-26 meeting, bringing the fed funds rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in 22 years. Policymakers have slowed the pace of increases after aggressively tightening rates to bring down an inflation rate that last year reached a 40-year high. The latest hike followed a pause at the June meeting. Further slowing in the economy is likely as a number of pandemic-era fiscal support programs are ending and because the impact of rate increases work with a lag, Barkin said. He repeated his view that policymakers will be resolute to bring down inflation. "We learned in the '70s that if you don't get inflation under control, it comes back even stronger," he said. Barkin pointed out that economists have been incorrectly predicting a recession since late last year, but that most downturns are not expected and result from some shock. While a few industries — including housing, banking and commercial real estate — have had "mini-recessions," much of the economy has been resilient, he said. Speaking to the Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce, Barkin said businesses are seeing healthy demand and consumer spending remains solid. He cited strong sales for the movie Barbie as well as Taylor Swift's "billion-dollar tour." "Consumers continue to spend, funded by excess savings accrued during the pandemic, elevated equity and housing wealth, and a robust jobs market," he said. "This year, the drop in gasoline prices has freed up additional spending capacity."

Fed’s Bowman Signals More Hikes May Be Needed to Cool Inflation - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said the US central bank may need to raise rates further in order to fully restore price stability. “Additional rate increases will likely be needed to get inflation on a path down to the FOMC’s 2% target,” Bowman said, referencing the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.Bowman, in remarks prepared for an event with the Kansas Bankers Association in Colorado on Saturday, said she supported the decision to raise rates at the Fed’s meeting last month. While data released since then show a slowdown in price growth, Bowman indicated she wants to see more proof of sustained disinflation. “The recent lower inflation reading was positive, but I will be looking for consistent evidence that inflation is on a meaningful path down toward our 2% goal as I consider further rate increases and how long the federal funds rate will need to remain at a restrictive level,” she said. “I will also be watching for signs of slowing in consumer spending and signs that labor market conditions are loosening.” The Fed’s July rate hike brought the federal funds rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in 22 years. The median estimate of Fed officials’ most recent quarterly projections, published in June, showed two more rate increases this year, the first of which was accomplished with last month’s hike. Bowman said that policymakers would be assessing incoming data and should be willing to raise rates in the future should inflation progress stall. The Fed has three more policy meetings in 2023 and next meets in September. On Friday, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed nonfarm payrolls increased 187,000 last month — less than forecast — while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 3.5%, one of the lowest readings in decades. After the release of the jobs data, two Fed officials said slower US employment gains suggest the labor market is coming into better balance, arguing the central bank may soon need to pivot to thinking about how long to hold interest rates at elevated levels. “I expected the economy to slow down in a fairly orderly way, and this number — 187,000 — comes in continuing that pace,” Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said. “I’m comfortable. I’m not expecting this to be over in a short period of time,” Bostic added in reference to the slowdown, suggesting he doesn’t see any need for additional rate hikes. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, speaking in a separate interview with Westin, said policymakers will need to be patient through the disinflation process, and is hopeful the central bank can bring inflation down to its 2% target without causing a recession. They will soon need to start thinking about when to hold interest rates steady, and for how long, he said.

El-Erian advises Federal Reserve to rethink its 2% inflation target --Recently, data has come out showing that wage gains have slowed, inflation is trending down, and an overly hot jobs market may be starting to cool. Mohamed El-Erian is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, former CEO of the Pimco investment house and current chief economic adviser at Allianz. The last time he spoke to Marketplace, the Federal Reserve had raised interest rates seven times in its campaign against inflation. Now, after four more hikes and lower monthly inflation readings, the hoped-for “soft landing” scenario seems a realistic possibility. El-Erian joined “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal to talk about the Fed’s 2% annual inflation goal. An edited transcript of their conversation is below.

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$91 Billion in July, -$759 Billion from Peak, Biggest Drop Ever, to $8.2 Trillion, Lowest since July 2021 - By Wolf Richter - (with graphs) Quantitative Tightening (QT) continues. The Fed’s total assets dropped by $91 billion in July, and by $759 billion since the all-time peak in April 2022, the biggest drop ever, to $8.21 trillion, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today. Since the height of the bank panic in March, the Fed has shed $527 billion in assets, as QT continued on track and as bank liquidity support measures are unwound. The chart shows the details of the banking crisis, and how it is being unwound. The next chart down shows the long view: From crisis to crisis to raging inflation: During the nearly two years of QT #1 between November 2017 and August 2019, total assets dropped by $688 billion, compared to $759 billion in one year of QT #2:

• Treasury securities: -$58.5 billion in July, -$723 billion from the peak in June 2022, to $5.05 trillion, the lowest since May 2021. The Fed has now shed 22.3% of the Treasury securities it bought under its pandemic QE ($3.25 trillion). Treasury notes and bonds “roll off” the balance sheet mid-month or at the end of the month when they mature and the Fed gets paid face value for them. The roll-off is capped at $60 billion per month, and about that much has been rolling off, minus the inflation protection the Fed earns on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) which is added to the principal of the TIPS. Treasury securities have now declined to 15.6% of the total $32.59-trillion pile in Treasury securities outstanding.The drop in share occurred because the Fed has been cutting its holdings, while the government is issuing a tsunami of new securities to fund its deficit spending.
• Mortgage-Backed Securities: -$21 billion in July, -$223 billion from the peak, to $2.52 trillion, the lowest since October 2021.The Fed only holds government-backed “Agency MBS,” where taxpayers carry the credit risk, not the Fed.MBS come off the balance sheet primarily via pass-through principal payments that holders receive when mortgages are paid off (mortgaged homes are sold, mortgages are refinanced) and when regular mortgage payments are made.The run-off in MBS has been well below the cap of $35 billion per month because passthrough principal payments have slowed to a trickle, because fewer mortgages are getting paid off, because home sales have dropped and refis have collapsed:
• Repos with “foreign official” counterparties: $0, paid off in April. The Swiss National Bank likely used this program to fund the dollar-liquidity support for the take-under of Credit Suisse by UBS.
• Discount Window: -$1.5 billion in July, down to $1.9 billion, compared to $153 billion in March. Discount Window lending to banks has been around for a very long time. Since the last rate hike, the Fed charges banks 5.50% to borrow at the Discount Window ( “Primary Credit”). In addition, banks have to post collateral under strict rules and at “fair market value.” This is expensive money for banks; they would normally be able to borrow for less from depositors without having to post collateral. So banks pay off these Discount Window loans as soon as they can.
• Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): +$3.7 billion in July, to $106 billion. This bank lending facility, set up during the bank panic, is similar to the Discount Window but less expensive, more flexible, and with easier collateral rules for the banks.

Treasury Yield Forecasts and Projections: CBO vs. Economists’ Consensus - by Menzie Chinn -- The CBO’s July 2023 update provided an updated projection of 10 year Treasury yields that was both higher and lower than that from February. Both were higher than corresponding consensus views of economists. Figure 1: Ten year Treasury yield (bold black), CBO projection from July 2023 (tan), from February 2023 (green), from May 2022 (blue), mean forecast from May 2023 Survey of Professional Forecasters (red), and from July 2023 WSJ Survey for end-of-quarter (sky blue +), all in %. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Treasury via FRED, CBO, Philadelphia Fed, WSJ, NBER. CBO projections in May 2022 were for a rapid increase in the wake of the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine. February projections were for a plateau, while the most recent indicates a peak at higher levels, and then decline. May and July private consensus are for a 10 year yield over half a percentage point lower than CBO’s estimate.Over the 1983-2018 period, the average error for the CBO (Blue Chip) forecasts of the 10 year yield is 0.9 ppts (1.0 ppts), while the RMSE is 1.2 ppts (1.2 ppts) (see CBO (2023)). Hence, it’s not clear there is reason to think one is more.

US Government Debt Spikes by $1.2 trillion since Debt Ceiling, to $32.7 Trillion. Treasury to Add $1.5 Trillion in Debt by Year-End -by Wolf Richter -To set the scene for what’s to come in a moment: The total US national debt spiked by $1.19 trillion since the debt ceiling was lifted, to $32.66 trillion. And to set the scene further: This $32.66 trillion of debt is composed of two groups of Treasury securities:

• $6.9 trillion of nonmarketable (not traded in the market) Treasury securities that have been bought by US government pension funds, the Social Security Trust Fund, etc.;
• $25.7 trillion in marketable securities (Treasury securities held and traded by the global public, from regular folks to central banks, including the Fed).

Marketable securities outstanding have spiked by $1.05 trillion since the debt ceiling was lifted on June 2, a huge amount of issuance in two months.And in a moment, we’ll get into how much more will be issued for the remainder of the year: Another $1.5 trillion (as indicated by the green line and technical term for this phenomenon), according to the jacked-up projections released today by the Treasury Department:The Treasury Department today jacked up its borrowing plans to deal with the lower-than-previously-expected revenues and the higher-than-previously-expected outlays, as the deficit keeps careening out of all control. For the current quarter: $1.01 trillion in additional debt. This July through September quarter has only two months left, Treasury jacked up its borrowing plans by $274 billion, to total borrowing in the quarter of $1.01 trillion, up from the $733 billion it had imagined in May, according to its announcement today. In other words, the government will issue over $1 trillion in marketable securities this quarter that the market has to buy this quarter, in addition to refinancing maturing securities. Last time the government issued securities at this pace and faster was in 2020, but back then, the Fed was buying Treasuries hand over fist, including $3 trillion in March through May 2020. Now the Fed is shedding Treasuries at a pace of about $60 billion a month. Markets not only have to digest the new issuance but also pick up the $60 billion a month that the Fed is walking away from. The Treasury Department cited three main reasons for this $274 billion increase to this monster $1.01 trillion in new issuance this quarter:

• It raised by $50 billion the balance it wants to have in its checking account, the Treasury General Account (TGA), by the end of September, to $650 billion, from $600 billion as planned in May.
• It started out the quarter with $148 billion less in the TGA than projected in May. So it was behind before the quarter even started.
• It now projects “lower receipts and higher outlays” than imagined in May, requiring an additional $83 billion new debt to cover this additional deficit.

For the next quarter: $852 billion in new borrowing. In the October through December quarter, Treasury expects to borrow an additional $852 billion, to end with a cash balance in its TGA of $750 billion. The way things are going, with these big upward revisions of borrowing estimates, along with the less than projected receipts and more than expected outlays, we can expect an upward revision of this $852 billion by the next update. Total new borrowing in the second half: $1.85 trillion. In July – the first month of the second half – the government already borrowed nearly $300 billion. So for the five months from now through the end of December, the government projects to issue $1.56 trillion in new debt. Some of it to refill the TGA to $750 billion (from $550 billion now), and the rest of it cover the budget deficit.

Here Comes the Tsunami of Longer-Term Treasury Notes & Bonds: Monthly Auction Sizes +60% by August Next Year - The US Treasury Department today released data to what extent it will boost the issuance of Treasury notes (maturities of 2 years to 10 years) and Treasury bonds (20 years and 30 years), and it starts in August. This oncoming flood of supply at these coupon auctions is a doozie.So far, Treasury has funded the huge gigantic deficits and the refilling of its checking account, the Treasury General Account, by selling at auction a torrent of Treasury bills (1 year or less) and Cash Management Bills (short-term bills with maturities ranging from a few days to months). But now comes the supply of longer-term notes and bonds.It starts in August, when Treasury will sell $270 billion in notes and bonds, up by $24 billion from July ($246 billion). The Treasury Department said in its Quarterly Refunding Statement today:“Treasury plans to increase auctions sizes by slightly larger amounts in certain tenors in order to maintain the structural balance of supply and demand across tenors. Treasury will evaluate whether similar relative adjustments are appropriate when determining auction size changes in future quarters.”Next week, Treasury will increase the auction size of notes and bonds by $13 billion from July, to $103 billion:

• 3-year notes: $42 billion, +$2 billion from July
• 10-year notes: $38 billion, +$6 billion from July
• $30-year bonds: $23 billion, +$5 billion from July.

The $103 billion in issuance next week will replace $84 billion in notes and bonds that mature on August 15. The additional $19 billion in issuance will be needed to fund the new deficits; it’s that additional $19 billion that will increase the total debt.Later in August, Treasury will sell $167 billion in notes and bonds, up by $11 billion from July

• 2-year notes: $45 billion, +$3 billion from July
• 5-year notes: $46 billion, +$3 billion from July
• 7-year notes: $36 billion, +$1 billion from July
• 20-year bonds: $16 billion, +$4 billion from July
• FRN (Floating Rate Notes): $24 billion, unchanged

“Treasury plans to increase auctions sizes by slightly larger amounts in certain tenors in order to maintain the structural balance of supply and demand across tenors. Treasury will evaluate whether similar relative adjustments are appropriate when determining auction size changes in future quarters,” the Treasury Department said in the announcement.In September, Treasury will increase its issuance of notes and bonds also by $24 billion from July, to $270 billion.In October, Treasury will increase its issuance of notes and bonds by $35 billion to $281 billion.The issuance of TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) will be increased starting in October with the 5-year TIPS new issue auction. It will be boosted by $1 billion to $22 billion. Over the next 12-month, Good Lordy.Treasury should jack up its monthly issuance of the seven main notes and bonds (not including TIPS and FRNs) by nearly 60% over the next year, to $354 billion in August 2024, from what it issued in July 2023 ($222 billion), according to “Neutral Issuance” scenario in the presentation by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC).These quarterly projections could be subject to hefty increases over the next quarters, as we have seen today. The chart shows the projected monthly combined issuance of 2-year notes, 3-year notes, 5-year notes, 7-year notes, 10-year notes, 20-year bonds, and 30-year bonds:

Biden resorts to a classic D.C. punt on the debt ceiling. Progressives aren’t pleased. - Progressives were thrilled when Joe Biden said this past spring that he would explore new ways to kill off the debt ceiling for good. Now they fear they’re getting the ultimate Beltway brush-off: An internal working group. Two months after narrowly averting economic disaster, the White House is assembling a team dedicated to heading off yet another debt crisis come 2025. The group will study a range of legal and policy options, the administration said, in an effort to prevent Republicans from once again wielding the threat of catastrophic default to extract political concessions. But there’s reason to be skeptical that concrete action will come soon, if at all. There’s no clear timeline for the project and little in the way of overt direction, outside of analyzing various theories for defusing the debt ceiling. And for the growing cadre of lawmakers, economists and legal scholars still attuned to the issue, Biden’s decision to hand it off to a working group represents a decidedly mundane response to an urgent and existential dilemma. “We are going to get pummeled on this over and over and over again,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), who lobbied Biden earlier this year to simply ignore the debt ceiling on grounds that defaulting is unconstitutional rather than give in to Republicans’ negotiation demands. “So I hope it’s quick. I hope it’s decisive. We have the answer right in front of us.” The group’s creation comes as Congress’ need to raise the debt limit has become a more common negotiating tool for the Republican majority, threatening U.S. creditworthiness and putting the global economy at risk. After weeks of tense negotiations this spring, Biden struck a deal with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to suspend the debt ceiling past the next election. But the GOP’s steep demands — and the willingness among some in the party to default regardless of the outcome — has fueled calls for a workaround from Democrats spooked by the prospect of a more unpredictable rematch in 2025 if Biden wins reelection but Republicans control both the House and Senate.

US Credit Rating Downgraded From AAA by Fitch -- The US was stripped of its top-tier sovereign credit grade by Fitch Ratings, which criticized the country’s ballooning fiscal deficits and an “erosion of governance” that’s led to repeated debt limit clashes over the past two decades. The credit grader cut the US one level from AAA to AA+, echoing a move made more than a decade ago by S&P Global Ratings. Tax cuts and new spending initiatives coupled with multiple economic shocks have swelled budget deficits, Fitch said, while medium-term challenges related to rising entitlement costs remain largely unaddressed. “The rating downgrade of the United States reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance relative to ‘AA’ and ‘AAA’ rated peers over the last two decades,” Fitch said in a statement. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen quickly responded to the downgrade, calling it “arbitrary” and “outdated.” Treasuries edged higher in early Asia trading after the Fitch announcement amid modest demand for haven assets. “Fitch’s decision does not change what Americans, investors, and people all around the world already know: that Treasury securities remain the world’s preeminent safe and liquid asset, and that the American economy is fundamentally strong,” Yellen said in the statement. Fitch had warned that it was weighing cutting the nation’s credit grade back in May, when Democrat and Republican lawmakers were at odds over raising the nation’s borrowing limit and the US Treasury was only weeks away from running out of cash. While that crisis was ultimately averted, Fitch nonetheless said that the repeated debt-limit clashes and eleventh-hour resolutions have eroded confidence in the nation’s fiscal management. Tuesday’s statement also attributed the downgrade to the country’s rapidly swelling debt burden, which it forecasts to reach 118% of gross domestic product by 2025, more than two-and-a-half times higher than the ‘AAA’ median of 39.3%. The rating company projects the debt-to-GDP ratio to rise even further in the longer-term, increasing America’s vulnerability to future economic shocks, the report said.

Fitch Downgrades US Credit Rating on Fiscal Deterioration, Government Debt Burden, and Debt Ceiling Standoffs --Following the shocker of an announcement by the Treasury Department yesterday that it would have to borrow $1 trillion in the quarter through September and another $852 billion in the quarter through December, on top of the $32.6 trillion the government already owes, Fitch Ratings threw in the towel today and became the second major US rating agency to downgrade the US of A.Fitch cut the long-term credit rating of the US to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’. It already had the US on negative outlook, meaning a downgrade was possible. With the downgrade today, Fitch removed the negative outlook and assigned a stable outlook.As reason for the downgrade, Fitch cited a litany of issues, which it summarized:

• “The expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years
• “High and growing general government debt burden
• “Erosion of governance relative to ‘AA’ and ‘AAA’ rated peers over the last two decades that has manifested in repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions.”

“Erosion of Governance”: Fitch cited “a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025. The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management.”“The government lacks a medium-term fiscal framework, unlike most peers, and has a complex budgeting process. These factors, along with several economic shocks as well as tax cuts and new spending initiatives, have contributed to successive debt increases over the last decade.”This is what the last half of these “successive debt increases over the last decade” looks like:Rising Government Deficits: Fitch said that it expects the general government (GG) deficit to reach 6.3% of GDP this year, from 3.7% in 2022, “reflecting cyclically weaker federal revenues, new spending initiatives and a higher interest burden.” Fitch forecasts the deficit to reach 6.6% of GDP in 2024 and 6.9% of GDP in 2025.Rising Government Debt: Fitch said that the debt-to-GDP ratio at 112.9% in 2023 is “well above the pre-pandemic 2019 level of 100.1%.” It expects the ratio to reach 118.4% by 2025. “The debt ratio is over two-and-a-half times higher than the ‘AAA’ median of 39.3% of GDP and ‘AA’ median of 44.7% of GDP,” it said.“Fitch’s longer-term projections forecast additional debt/GDP rises, increasing the vulnerability of the U.S. fiscal position to future economic shocks,” Fitch said.Medium-term Fiscal Challenges Unaddressed: “Over the next decade, higher interest rates and the rising debt stock will increase the interest service burden, while an aging population and rising healthcare costs will raise spending on the elderly absent fiscal policy reforms,” Fitch said.But the US of A still has some strengths, Fitch said: a “large, advanced, well-diversified and high-income economy, supported by a dynamic business environment.” And of course, inevitably, the US has the dollar, “the world’s preeminent reserve currency, which gives the government extraordinary financing flexibility.” Fitch projects a US recession in Q4 this year and in Q1 next year, the same recession that has gotten moved out every quarter for over a year. Someday we’ll get it. Even the Fed has given up on its recession call for this year. Fitch is still clinging to it.

The Fitch Downgrade of U.S. Debt: What You Need to Know -by Pam and Russ Martens: August 3, 2023 ~ At 5:13 p.m. ET on Tuesday, after the stock market closed, Fitch downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+. Fitch is now the second of the three major credit rating agencies to have taken the historic step of removing the triple-A rating from the U.S. S&P made its first-ever downgrade to the U.S. credit rating on August 5, 2011, also from AAA to AA+, and has kept it there ever since. Moody’s is now the only member of the Big Three credit rating agencies that has maintained a triple-A rating on the U.S. As the chart above indicates, the stock market responded negatively to this development yesterday, particularly over the fact that it came at a time when the U.S. Treasury is boosting the amount of debt it is issuing. Yesterday, the U.S. Treasury announced its plans to increase its debt issuance, writing as follows: “Based on projected intermediate- to long-term borrowing needs, Treasury intends to gradually increase coupon auction sizes beginning with the August to October 2023 quarter. While these changes will make substantial progress towards aligning auction sizes with intermediate- to long-term borrowing needs, further gradual increases will likely be necessary in future quarters….” In line with that view, the Treasury boosted its auction set for next week from $96 billion to $103 billion, consisting of $42 billion in a 3-year Treasury note; $38 billion in a 10-year Treasury note; and $23 billion in a 30-year Treasury bond. Yields on both the 10-year note and 30-yield bond saw increases in their yields yesterday, meaning their prices were declining. (Bond prices move inversely to their yields.) The yield on the 10-year was trading in the range of 4.05 percent in the early morning yesterday, then moved up to 4.12 by late afternoon. It has continued to move higher this morning, yielding 4.15 percent at 7 a.m. The yield on the 30-year bond was trading in the range of 4.10 early yesterday morning, then moved sharply up at the day progressed, reaching a yield of 4.20 by 11 a.m. This morning, at 7 a.m., the 30-year is yielding 4.25 percent. When S&P downgraded the U.S. credit rating in 2011, it cited as one factor the growing U.S. debt as a percent of GDP. It said it anticipated U.S. debt reaching “an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 79% in 2015 and 85% in 2021,” while noting that these ratios were “high in relation to those of peer credits…. ”Those ratios look positively Goldilocks compared to today. One of the points made by Fitch in its ratings downgrade on Tuesday was this: “Lower deficits and high nominal GDP growth reduced the debt-to-GDP ratio over the last two years from the pandemic high of 122.3% in 2020; however, at 112.9% this year it is still well above the pre-pandemic 2019 level of 100.1%. The GG [General Government] debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise over the forecast period, reaching 118.4% by 2025. The debt ratio is over two-and-a-half times higher than the ‘AAA’ median of 39.3% of GDP and ‘AA’ median of 44.7% of GDP. Fitch’s longer-term projections forecast additional debt/GDP rises, increasing the vulnerability of the U.S. fiscal position to future economic shocks.” But what is causing the most discussion behind the scenes, both domestically and abroad, are the concerns Fitch enumerated on the ability of the U.S. to govern itself. Fitch raised the following governance issues:“In Fitch’s view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025. The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management. In addition, the government lacks a medium-term fiscal framework, unlike most peers, and has a complex budgeting process….”

Dollar shaky after US credit rating downgrade(Reuters) - The dollar struggled to make headway on Wednesday after a cut on the U.S. government's top credit rating by Fitch raised questions about the country's fiscal outlook, though it drew some support from a relatively resilient run of economic data. Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday downgraded the United States to AA+ from AAA in a move that drew an angry response from the White House and surprised investors, coming despite the resolution two months ago of the debt ceiling crisis. That nudged the greenback lower, lifting the euro toward $1.10. The single currency was last 0.11% higher at $1.0996, after earlier touching a session-high of $1.1020. Sterling similarly gained 0.05% to $1.2782, while the U.S. dollar index was last 0.09% higher at 102.09, after slipping broadly in the wake of the Fitch news. "We don't think the Fitch decision is that material. Certainly, we've seen the market move a little bit this morning ... but over the near term, I don't think it's going to be a longer lasting driver," said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank (NAB). The dollar was also underpinned by economic data on Tuesday that showed U.S. job openings remained at levels consistent with tight labour market conditions, even as they fell to the lowest level in more than two years in June. A separate report suggested U.S. manufacturing might be stabilising at weaker levels in July amid a gradual improvement in new orders, though factory employment dropped to a three-year low. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was roughly 0.1% stronger at 143.21 per dollar, paring some of its gains from earlier in the morning. Minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) June policy meeting released Wednesday morning showed that the board agreed on the need to keep ultra-loose policy for the time being. The yen had seen three straight sessions of declines since Friday's BOJ policy decision to loosen its grip on interest rates, as traders are still trying to assess the implications of the move. The Australian dollar rose 0.12% to $0.6621, reversing some of its sharp 1.57% fall in the previous session after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday held interest rates steady and signalled that it might be done tightening. "It would have sent a confusing message if the RBA hiked... given trimmed mean inflation met their June forecast and retail trade dipped ahead of (the) decision," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.23% to $0.6136, after data on Wednesday showed the country's jobless rate hit a two-year high in the second quarter.

Will new U.S. debt downgrade reverberate more than the one 12 years ago? - Investors were in a sour mood Wednesday after Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating, but analysts expect the firm's action to have little long-term impact on banks. The markets didn't exactly shrug off the downgrade. The S&P 500 fell 1.38%, bank stocks came under pressure, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to nearly 4.08%, up from the prior close of 4.05%, suggesting that demand for Treasurys declined slightly. But the main point made by Fitch's action — that the U.S. political system is messier than it used to be — is one that analysts say has long been obvious to investors. Back in 2011, the rating firm Standard & Poor's downgraded U.S. sovereign debt. The debt ceiling had turned into a political football at that time, much as it did earlier this year. Stock markets tumbled after the 2011 downgrade, but the impact of S&P's warning on financial markets was short-lived, noted Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel. After all, investors "come to their own conclusions and just don't blindly follow the rating agencies," he said. The doomsday scenario after the 2011 downgrade was that investors would retreat from the U.S. Treasury market, which would prompt a spike in interest rates, since lending to the U.S. government would be seen as riskier. Instead, markets quickly calmed down. Investor demand for what are seen for the world's safest bonds didn't wane, and interest rates stayed at historically low levels for years after 2011. "I'm really skeptical that a new announcement by a rating agency is going to change investors' mindset on the current situation and have an impact on the bond market, on the yield curve and by extension on the banking industry," Gardner said. By offering its gloomier take on the U.S. government, Fitch is "simply catching up with the view of investors," Ian Lyngen, a rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients. "At this stage, it's old hat," Lyngen wrote. Though the benchmark 10-year yield did rise a bit on Wednesday, Lyngen wrote that bond investors were focused on a technical announcement outlining the future mix of Treasury borrowing and perhaps a new private-sector jobs report from the employment firm ADP. That report showed that private employers added 324,000 jobs last month, a solid result that could portend a strong jobs report when official U.S. data comes out Friday. A hot job market could bolster the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again this year. Another rate hike, in turn, may exacerbate the pressure banks are seeing as their deposit costs rise, and it could put additional pressure on bank borrowers, some of whom are struggling to make larger monthly payments. "At the end of the day, unless there's really going to be a problem with Treasury paying the debt, banks should be able to manage through this without much impact to their business model,"

Manchin: Downgrade of America’s credit rating a ‘historic failure’ of political leadership -Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who has railed against the nation’s record-high debt, on Thursday called Fitch Ratings’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+ a “historic failure of leadership by both political parties and the executive branch.” Manchin, who is flirting with a presidential run as a third-party candidate backed by the group No Labels, has regularly criticized what he views as the lack of bipartisan cooperation in Washington.He blamed the nation’s latest credit downgrade on the inability of Republicans and Democrats in Congress and President Biden to make significant progress in addressing the nation’s $32 trillion debt. “The credit agency specifically cited the decline in governance, erosion of cooperation in the federal government and ballooning national debt when making the determination to lower our credit rating,” he said. “This is a stark warning that cannot be ignored. We must act now to fully fund the government and address our national debt before we wake up to a future where America’s superpower status is in jeopardy and we have lost the confidence of our allies around the world.” Manchin criticized Biden for showing a “deficiency of leadership” in April after he initially refused to sit down with Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to negotiate a deficit reduction package in exchange for raising the debt limit.

Senate Passes $886 Billion NDAA - The Senate on Thursday night passed its version of the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act in a vote of 86-11. The bill authorizes a record $886 billion in military spending.The debt ceiling deal reached between House Republicans and the White House set the NDAA at $886 billion, which is the amount President Biden requested. Hawks in Congress are planning to increase that figure even more by passing “emergency” supplemental funding, which is not limited by the debt ceiling deal.The Senate rejected amendments to the NDAA that would have increased oversight of the tens of billions in weapons and other aid that the US has been pouring into Ukraine.An amendment introduced by Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) to require audits and investigations of Ukraine aid failed in a vote of 20-78, with only Republicans supporting the measure. The Senate also rejected an amendment to establish a lead inspector general for Ukraine aid in a vote of51-48 (the effort required a three-fifths majority).The House passed its version of the spending bill earlier this month, so the next step is for the two chambers to negotiate the finalized version that will head to President Biden’s desk. The House version is also worth $886 billion, but the chambers may clash over the spending bill as House Republicans included amendments relating to social policies in the military.Because of the Republican amendments, the House NDAA narrowly passed in a vote of 219-210, which largely fell along partisan lines. NDAAs typically pass easily as the majority of Republicans and Democrats favor huge amounts of military spending.

Pentagon Authorizes Hazard Pay for US Troops in Ukraine --The Pentagon has authorized additional hazard pay for US troops in Ukraine, Military Times reported on Thursday.The news highlights the small US military presence in Ukraine, although it’s unclear how many US troops are there. According to one of thePentagon documents that was leaked on Discord, there was a total of 29 Department of Defense personnel inside Ukraine as of March 2023.The number included 14 special operations soldiers. According to the document, there were 97 NATO special operations soldiers in Ukraine at the time. It’s unclear what the NATO special operations forces are doing on the ground.Other US military personnel inside Ukraine include members of the Marine Security Guard Security Augmentation Unit (MSAU), who are typically deployed for embassy security. There are also officials with the defense attaché and members of the Office of Defense Cooperation (ODC).In October 2022, the Pentagon said that personnel under the defense attaché and ODC based at the US embassy in Kyiv started conducting “onsite” weapons inspections inside Ukraine.The Military Times report said that US troops in Ukraine would now earn an extra $7.50 per day, capped at $225 per month, in addition to their base salary and other bonuses. A Pentagon official said US military personnel in Ukraine could get back pay going back to April 2022.The State Department has also authorized hazard pay for its employees in Ukraine. According to the Discord document, 79 State Department personnel were in the country as of March 2023. The US briefly shuttered its embassy in Kyiv when Russia first invaded but reopened the facility in May 2022.Besides the military and diplomatic presence in Ukraine, the CIA also has a presence on the ground, according to multiple media reports.

Ukraine Says Talks With US on Security Guarantees Have Begun - A Ukrainian official said Thursday that the US and Ukraine have started talks on security guarantees for Ukraine, part of a plan for Washington to provide long-term military support for Kyiv.The US and other G7 nations vowed at the recent NATO summit in Vilnius to negotiate their own bilateral security deals with Ukraine. “It is symbolic that the United States — our biggest strategic partner — became the first country with which Ukraine has started this process,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, wrote on Telegram.“Through this process we will create a successful model for other partners,” he said. Yermak added that the security guarantees “will strengthen Ukraine along the path to future membership of the Euro-Atlantic community, including NATO and the European Union.”Yermak did not say where the talks are taking place or who is involved. According to Reuters, a photo accompanying his Telegram post showed him sitting at a table that appeared to be in the Ukrainian presidential office in Kyiv.While Ukraine walked away from the Vilnius summit without a clear roadmap on when it will join NATO, the US and its allies still made clear that they want to keep funding the proxy war against Russia. Long-term commitments from Western countries will prolong the conflict as one of Russia’s main motives for invading was Ukraine’s alignment with NATO.President Biden has publicly floated the idea of an Israel model for Ukraine, which would involve multi-year commitments to provide billions in military aid but would not include NATO Article 5-style mutual defense guarantees. Israel receives $3.8 billion in military aid annually under a 10-year memorandum of understanding.

Fans of Cluster Bombs Dominate WaPo’s Opinion Section - The Washington Post (6/23/22) describes its opinion section as a platform for articles that “provide a diversity of voices and perspectives for our readers.” Yet as the US and its allies pour military aid into Ukraine, escalating the already bloody conflict with ever-more deadly new weapons, the paper’s opinion pages begin to look less like a platform for diverse voices and more like a cheerleading squad for the military/industrial complex. Post opinion journalism abounds with pieces advocating the sort of “light side vs. dark side” moral rhetoric characteristic of corporate media’s war coverage (FAIR.org, 12/1/22). A consequence of this binary worldview is the tendency to present the deployment of increasingly horrific means, like President Joe Biden’s recent decision to arm Ukraine with US cluster munitions, as essentially just and necessary to achieve the West’s always-noble ends.Cluster munitions are a type of ordinance which can leave unexploded “bomblets” around for decades. Almost 50 years after the end of the US government’s war of aggression against Laos, unexploded cluster bombs continue to kill and maim innocent people—frequently children.These weapons are rightly so reviled that, shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, then–White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki responded to the possibility that Russia had already begun using cluster munitions against Ukraine by calling it “potentially a war crime.” Even so, US cluster munitions have arrived in Ukraine, and are now being used by Kyiv (Washington Post, 7/20/23). Advocating for escalation, a Post editorial headlined “NATO’s Annual Summit Could Define a Decade of Western Security” (7/8/23) argued that NATO needs to “step up their game” in order to meet the threat of Putin’s regime in Moscow. It called Biden’s decision to arm Ukraine with cluster munitions a “tough but correct call.” The editorial board explained: Their use is banned by some major NATO allies, because dud bombs left behind on the battlefield pose a threat to civilians. But Russia has used them intensively in Ukraine, and the Biden administration is legally required to export only shells that have a very low dud rate.“Some” major allies? Out of the 31 NATO member states, the US finds company with only seven others in its refusal to join the Convention on Cluster Munitions. More than two-thirds of NATO countries, including “major” allies like Canada, Britain, Germany and France—and every European country west of Poland—have signed.The editorial board cites the fact that the cluster munitions being sent by the US have a “very low dud rate,” and will therefore pose less of a risk to civilians. According to the New York Times’ John Ismay (7/7/23), a failure rate of 2.35% “would mean that for every two shells fired, about three unexploded grenades would be left scattered on the target area.” There is reason to believe that the true dud rate may be much higher—possibly exceeding 14%, by the Pentagon’s own reckoning.

Medvedev Says Russia Would Use Nuke If Ukraine's Counteroffensive Was Successful - Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, said Sunday that if Ukraine’s struggling counteroffensive was successful, Russia would have to use nuclear weapons.“By repelling the collective enemy’s counteroffensive, our Armed Forces are defending Russian citizens and our land. It is quite clear to all decent people. Besides that, they are preventing global conflict,” Medvedev, who served as president from 2008-2012, wrote on Twitter.Medvedev said that if Ukraine’s counteroffensive was successful and “they took away a part of our land,” Russia would have to “use the nuclear weapon.” He referred to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which allows the use of nukes if Russia feels its existence is threatened.“There would simply be no other way out. That’s why our enemies must worship our warriors. They are keeping global nuclear fire from flaring up,” he said. Throughout the war, Medvedev has been known for hawkish rhetoric. He recently said British officials were “legitimate military targets” due to the UK’s support for Ukraine and British comments Moscow viewed as encouraging attacks on civilians inside Russia.

US Citizen Who Was Arrested in Ukraine for His Speech Attempts to Flee to Hungary - Gonzalo Lira, an American citizen who was arrested in Ukraine in May, said on social media on Monday night that he was released on bail and was attempting to cross into Hungary to seek political asylum. Lira is a popular YouTuber and writer and was arrested by the Ukrainian Security Services (SBU) for creating content that was critical of the Ukrainian government and explaining how the Russia-Ukraine war was provoked. He was charged over claims that he justified the Russian invasion.Lira wrote on Twitter, now known as X, that his trial was scheduled for August 2 and that he was told he would be found guilty, and that his sentence will be five to eight years in a prison labor camp.“If you don’t hear from me in the next 12 hours—whelp! I’m on my way to a labor camp!” he wrote. It’s been over 24 hours since his tweet and since he uploaded videos to YouTube explaining the situation, posts Lira said he made just as he was getting to the Ukraine-Hungary border checkpoint.Lira posted a document that he said was the indictment against him, both in Ukrainian and an English translation. “My indictment explicitly states that all I did was discuss publicly known facts about the war—the epitome of free speech in a democracy,” he said.Lira alleged that he was tortured during his time in a Ukrainian prison. “Once inside Sizo Prison, I was tortured in two of the four cells I was in—by the other prisoners. Guards NEVER beat prisoners—they outsource torture to the other prisoners. One prisoner actually apologized to me, telling me he had no choice. He wasn’t lying. I understood,” he said.Lira, who is also a Chilean citizen, said the State Department did not offer much help. “The US embassy called me three times, but gave me nothing but ‘support’—empty bromides,” he said.

Gonzalo Lira Reports Torture in Ukraine Prison, Extortion, Inevitable Conviction with Sentence of 5 to 8 Years in Labor Camp - by Yves Smith - Gonzalo Lira is alive, as the videos embedded below and a fresh 25-entry tweetstorm attest. However, he has a very ugly story to report. He was detained and repeatedly tortured by prisoners at the behest of guards, so as to create official deniability.He was allowed to go free by virtue of paying $70,000 in bribes (after having stolen $9,000 of “emergency cash”) plus $11,000 in bail to be set loose before an August 2 trial date, where he was told his conviction was a certainty, despite the prosecution effectively admitting in its own filings that Gonzalo’s only crime was running afoul of Ukraine’s extreme restrictions on free speech. The anticipated sentence was 5 to 8 years in a labor camp. Gonzalo was not given access to an attorney despite claims otherwise.And predictably, the State Department was not help, due not just to Gonzalo’s critical reporting on the US role in the conflict and outing some Western propaganda, but no doubt more specifically to his video on Russia-hater-in-chief Victoria Nuland, who was just promoted to number two at State. Representatives of the US Embassy did visit him three times, but offered, as Gonzalo put it, only bromides. But apparently there was enough noise made, particularly by the Chilean government, about Gonzalo not being allowed to post bail, so State apparently did eventually clear its throat about that.The one bit of good news is Gonzalo is fleeing coop and that is apparently what the authorities want. He was told while incarcerated that he was supposed to leave Ukraine after the late time he was detained (but not roughed up then) and didn’t understand the message:Gonzalo said he is going to Hungary to seek asylum. I would not be so open about my plans unless there were well settled procedures at border checks for asylum seekers… and I would not be confident of Ukraine compliance. Perhaps this announcement is a smokescreen.Needless to say, the US failure to intervene is yet more evidence this country no longer operates by the rule of law (American citizens are entitled to support of their embassies when abroad), particularly when we have bought and paid for the Ukraine government and are able to tell them what to do.Gonzalo Lira’s status report is getting traction outside the Twitterverse:

• Pro-Russian blogger Gonzalo Lira detained in Kharkiv The New Voice of Ukraine but just reposted on Yahoo, which suggests it will get around
• Scratched my left eye with toothpick, cracked rib: US-Chilean journalist describes torture in Ukrainian prison FirstPost
• Judge Napolitano and I Talk Intelligence and Gonzalo Lira Speaks Larry Johnson
• US-Chilean journalist describes torture in Ukrainian prison RT

And the videos: Please circulate widely. More exposure is Gonzalo’s best protection at this point.

NC Under Attack from Ukraine After Posting on Gonzalo Lira Being Tortured and Extorted While in Prison - Quelle surprise! Some people in Ukraine do not like NC! Posted by Yves Smith - While this attack from Ukraine did not overwhelm our defenses nor as far as we can tell, result in timeouts for readers, but it did make the site sluggish, particularly for admin tasks. Our tech guru Dave took additional protective measures. Dave analyzed the traffic spike and there is no question, based on more granular information about where it came from, that this was an attack. It started not long after we posted Gonzalo Lira Reports Torture in Ukraine Prison, Extortion, Inevitable Conviction with Sentence of 5 to 8 Years in Labor Camp which was on the first page of Google after the story broke. I wonder if other sites that have reported on the incarceration and torture of Gonzolo Lira have also been under attack. Readers?

Russia's Economy Projected to Grow Despite Western Sanctions - The International Monetary Fund has said it expects the Russian economyto grow by 1.5% this year despite the US-led Western sanctions campaign against the country, which President Biden once vowed would “turn the ruble into rubble.”The Russian economy shrank by 2.1% last year, but it has bounced back as Russia is adjusting to the sanctions. The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday called the economic war a “stalemate,” comparing it to the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine.The report said the sanctions initially made it harder for Russia to acquire microchips and other technical components, but Moscow then found sanctions loopholes through neighboring countries. Russia has also had no problems selling its oil as its found new markets in India and elsewhere in Asia.The Journal cited analysts who said the sanctions will hurt Russia in the long term, but Moscow continues to forge stronger ties and significantly increase trade with China. An alternative to the US-dominated global financial system is slowly being formed by Russia, China, and other countries targeted with US sanctions.The US has successfully crushed the economies of smaller countries with sanctions, but the sanctions on Russia were the harshest imposed on such a large economy. US sanctions on smaller nations are losing some of their power as China and Russia offer alternative markets.For example, Iranian oil sales in 2022 exceeded those in 2016 before the US withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on the country. Most of the new Iranian oil sales have been to China.

NATO Failed in Ukraine Against Russia. Now It’s Targeting China - naked capitalism -- Yves here. This talk, among Michael Hudson, Radhika Desai, and their guest Pepe Escobar, voices broadly similar views to our recent Some Thoughts on the Russian End Game in Ukraine. But this starts from a completely different vantage, that of looking at the NATO/EU side of the equation.However, even as NATO would like to reduce its commitment to Ukraine, we have the Biden Administration doubling down, with its Russia-hater-in-chief Victoria Nuland, promoted to acting Deputy Secretary of State. But she needs a lot more than cookies to get Europeans in line….particularly since at least some will remember her “Fuck the EU” remark. Escobar contends that most Europeans are dazzled by NATO chief Jens Stollenberg, and thus don’t question what the alliance is up to. It would be particularly informative for readers on the Continent to give us their reading of what they and their elites seem to make of Team Biden’s Putin obsession. (video & transcript)

US Announces $345 Million in Unprecedented Military Aid for Taiwan - The White House on Friday announced a $345 million military aid packagefor Taiwan, marking a significant escalation in US support for the island.The US has sold weapons to Taiwan since Washington severed diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979 but has never financed the purchases or provided arms free of charge.The $345 million weapons package is being provided through the presidential drawdown authority, the primary way the US has been arming Ukraine. The authority allows President Biden to send weapons directly from US military stockpiles.The White House said the $345 million includes “defense articles and services of the Department of Defense, and military education and training, to provide assistance to Taiwan.”The Biden administration did not announce publicly what weapons it was sending to Ukraine, but unnamed US officials speaking to AP said it would include man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), firearms, missiles, and intelligence and surveillance capabilities.US officials previously told Reuters that the package was expected to include MQ-9 Reaper drones, but it’s not clear if they are being provided. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry thanked the US for the weapons but also did not detail the contents of the arms package.The 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) authorized $1 billion in PDA for Taiwan, and this marks the first time the administration has drawn from those funds. The move drew a rebuke from Beijing, which is opposed to all US military support for Taiwan.A spokesman for China’s embassy in Washington said Beijing was “firmly opposed” to military ties between the US and Taiwan. He called on the US to “stop creating new factors that could stoke tensions in the Taiwan Strait.”

Chinese Defense Ministry Slams New US Military Aid for Taiwan - The Chinese Defense Ministry on Tuesday slammed the US for providing Taiwan with a $345 million weapons package that’s being drawn from Pentagon stockpiles, an unprecedented form of support for Taipei since the US and China normalized relations in 1979.“The US’s act of providing military aid to China’s Taiwan region grossly interferes in China’s internal affairs, seriously undermines China’s sovereignty and security interests, and gravely threatens peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. China is firmly opposed to this and has lodged stern representations with the US,” said Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Col. Tan Kefei.According to a Chinese Defense Ministry press release, Tan repeated China’s position that Taiwan “is a red line that cannot be crossed in China-US relations.” Since Washington severed diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979, it has sold weapons to Taiwan but has not financed the sales or provided arms free of charge.The US is sending the weapons to Taiwan using the presidential drawdown authority (PDA), the primary way the Biden administration has been arming Ukraine. The White House announced the $345 million arms package but did not detail its contents. US officials speaking anonymously to AP said it would include man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), firearms, missiles, and intelligence and surveillance capabilities.Tan called for the US to cut all military ties with Taiwan. “We urge the US side to stop all forms of military collusion with Taiwan and avoid going further down the wrong and dangerous path. The wheel of history rolls on towards China’s reunification, and it will not be stopped by any individual or any force,” he said.The 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) included $1 billion in PDA for Taiwan, and the new weapons package marked the first time the administration drew from those funds. When President Biden signed the 2023 NDAA into law, China responded by launching major military drills around Taiwan.

Biden to Ask Congress to Include Military Aid for Taiwan in Next Ukraine War Spending Bill - Financial Times reported Wednesday that the White House is expected to ask Congress to include military aid for Taiwan in the next spending bill to fund the war in Ukraine.Citing people familiar with the plan, the report said the White House’s Office of Management and Budget is expected to submit a request to Congress for another “emergency” supplemental funding bill sometime this month, a type of spending not capped by the debt ceiling deal.The White House will ask to include funds for Taiwan through Foreign Military Financing (FMF), a State Department program that gives foreign governments money to purchase US weapons. The 2023 National Defense Authorization Act included $2 billion in FMF for Taiwan, but the funds were not granted by congressional appropriators.The news comes after the White House announced it was sending Taiwan a$345 million military aid package using the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which allows the US to send weapons directly from Pentagon stockpiles, the primary way the US has been arming Ukraine. The 2023 NDAA included $1 billion in PDA for Taiwan, and this marked the first time the Biden administration drew from the funds.Both the PDA and FMF for Taiwan are unprecedented in the era of normalized relations between the US and China, which were established in 1979. Since then, the US has always sold weapons to Taiwan but never financed the purchases or provided them free of charge. From Beijing’s perspective, the new form of US support is extremely provocative, and Chinese government officials have issued several statements condemning the move.According to Financial Times, including the Taiwan aid with the Ukraine spending bill could help win over support from Republicans who have opposed supporting the proxy war against Russia. Many Republicans who are against arming Ukraine say the US should be focused on arming Taiwan instead. “Adding supplemental funding for Taiwan will put some House Republicans in a more difficult position since many who oppose Ukraine funding remain in favor of supporting Taiwan,” Zack Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute told the paper.

China Threatens to Weaponize Rare Earth Materials; Establishing Additional Sources of North American REE Production is Now Even More Important - On July 3, China announced it will impose export restrictions on eight gallium and six germanium products beginning on August 1 for national security reasons. These exotic metals, which are byproducts from refining aluminum and zinc, are used in numerous cutting-edge technologies, particularly in silicon chips for the semiconductor sector. China's move is widely viewed as retaliation for U.S. curbs on the sale of technologies to China. China's gallium and germanium export controls could lay the groundwork for an even broader action, the curtailment of exports of rare earth elements (REEs), crucial materials used in a wide variety of technology devices such as smartphones, digital cameras, flat screen televisions, and electronic displays. The clean energy and defense contracting industries are also heavy users of REEs. Not surprisingly, the demand for rare earths is soaring: the independent research firm Adamas Intelligence projects the global demand for rare earth oxides (REOs) will more than triple by 2035 to US$46 billion from US$15 billion in 2022. China has restricted the exports of rare earths before -- an action which caused prices of some REOs to rise almost exponentially for several years. In 2010, China severely restricted sales to Japan following a territorial dispute regarding the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands. China also claims those islands and calls them Diaoyu. In turn, Japan scrambled to find alternative sources, forcing prices higher. REEs are relatively plentiful in the earth’s crust but are typically widely dispersed, rendering their mining in a single location quite expensive (unless the site is determined to have enormous resources). The molecular structure of REEs is such that they frequently occur together in minerals, perhaps even in multiple mineral structures. Not surprisingly, these characteristics generally make their separation and extraction difficult. The 17 rare earth elements are generally categorized as light or heavy elements. Each source of rare earth material will generally contain the entire spectrum of REEs, but in varying percent ages. The heavy REEs (HREEs) are rarer and generally sell for significantly higher prices, as they are less common and more costly to separate. In contrast, light rare earth elements (LREEs) are produced in larger quantities because they occur naturally in greater quantities. Producers strive to meet the high demand for Neodymium (Nd) and Praseodymium (Pr), which necessitates the over-production of all associated LREEs like lower-priced cerium and lanthanum. For example, a typical rare earth concentrate from a mining operation may contain 75% of lower priced lanthanum (La) and cerium (Ce), perhaps 15% of higher-priced Nd and Pr, and about 10% other HREEs like dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb). According to the U.S. Geological Survey, China produced 70% of all rare earths mined globally in 2022. Even more important, Adamas Intelligence estimates that China controls at least 85% of the world's rare earth refining capacity - the ability to transform mined rare earth ores into extremely valuable rare earth oxides (REOs). In recent years, the U.S. has managed to reduce its dependence on China for rare earth supply, but only slightly. According to Reuters, America sourced 74% of its rare earths from China between 2018 and 2021.

US to Establish New Spy Center in Australia to Keep an Eye on China - After two days of talks in Australia, the US and Australian governments announced they will form a “Combined Intelligence Center” to give the US more spy capabilities in the region to monitor China.“The principals agreed to establish Combined Intelligence Center – Australia within Australia’s Defense Intelligence Organization by 2024,” the US and Australia said in a joint statement.“The Center would further enhance the long-standing intelligence cooperation between the Australian Defence Intelligence Organization and the US Defense Intelligence Agency, focused on analyzing issues of shared strategic concern in the Indo-Pacific,” the statement added.While the statement did not mention China by name, the US’s military buildup in Australia and elsewhere in the region is being done explicitly to prepare for a future war with China.According to Australia’s ABC News, officials from the Defense Intelligence Agency and their Australian counterparts have said the center is expected to “focus sharply on China’s military footprint in the region and its moves to cement security ties with countries across Asia and the Pacific.”The spy center is part of a broader increase in the US’s military footprint in Australia that was announced during Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s visit to Canberra.The two countries said the US would help Australia begin producing guided missiles and rockets by 2025. “The principals agreed to deepen cooperation on Australia’s Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance Enterprise by collaborating on a flexible guided weapons production capability in Australia, with an initial focus on the potential for co-production of Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems by 2025,” the statement said.

Blinken Rejects Australia's Calls to Drop Case Against Julian Assange - Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Saturday rejected Australian concerns about WikiLeaks founder and Australian citizen Julian Assange, who faces up to 175 years in prison if extradited to the US and convicted for exposing US war crimes.Blinken was in Australia with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to discuss bolstering military ties between the US and Australia. At a press conferenceduring the visit, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Canberra has made clear to Washington that it wants the US to drop its case against Assange.“We have made clear our view that Mr. Assange’s case has dragged on for too long and our desire that it be brought to a conclusion. And we’ve said that publicly, and you would anticipate that that reflects also the position we articulate in private,” Wong said.Blinken confirmed that the issue has been discussed but rejected Australia’s concerns. He said Australia must recognize the US’s position on Assange, claiming the Wikileaks founder’s alleged actions risked “very serious harm to our national security.”“Mr. Assange was charged with very serious criminal conduct in the United States in connection with his alleged role in one of the largest compromises of classified information in the history of our country,” Blinken said. “So I say that only because just as we understand sensitivities here, it’s important that our friends understand sensitivities in the United States.”Assange has been indicted under the Espionage Act by the US Justice Department related to documents WikiLeaks published that it obtained from former Army Private Chelsea Manning. But Assange obtained the material using standard journalistic practices, and if he is convicted in the US, it would set a grave precedent for press freedom.Assange has been held in London’s Belmarsh Prison since April 2019 and recently filed another appeal against the UK’s decision to extradite him to the United States. “Mr. Assange has filed a renewal of appeal application in the UK,” Wong said. “The Australian Government is not party to these legal proceedings, and nor can we intervene with them. Having said that, we will continue to offer him consular assistance and to convey our expectations about his treatment.”

Australian PM Insists He's Standing 'Firm' Against the US on Julian Assange - Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Tuesday insisted that his government was taking a “firm” stand against the US persecution of WikiLeaks founder and Australian citizen Julian Assange.During a recent visit to Australia, Secretary of State Antony Blinken rejected concerns raised by his Australian counterpart about Assange, who faces up to 175 years in prison for exposing US war crimes if extradited to the US.Albanese told reporters on Tuesday that the US case against Julian Assange “has gone on for too long. Enough is enough.” He said Blinken’s public comments about Assange echo what US officials have said privately about the WikiLeaks founder. “We remain very firm in our view and our representations to the American government and we will continue to do so,” Albanese added.While insisting his government has been firm on the issue, the US pursuit of Assange has not impacted US-Australian military ties. During Blinken’s visit to Australia, the two countries announced several measures to increase the US’s military footprint in the country, which is part of Washington’s preparations for a future war with China in the region.“Each day the US administration ignores the Australian public on Julian’s freedom, it becomes clearer and clearer Australia’s true standing in the alliance,” Assange’s brother, Gabriel Shipton, said last week, according toAP.Assange is currently being held in London’s Belmarsh Prison, awaiting the decision of another appeal his legal team filed against the UK decision to extradite him to the US. He’s been indicted under the Espionage Act by the US Justice Department related to documents WikiLeaks published that it received from former Army Private Chelsea Manning. Assange obtained the material using standard journalistic practices, and if he is convicted in the US, it would set a grave precedent for press freedom.

Blinken Backs West African Nations' Threat to Use Force Against Niger Coup - Secretary of State Antony Blinken has expressed support for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) after it threatened to use force against coup leaders in Niger if President Mohamed Bazoum is not reinstated.ECOWAS, a bloc of 15 West African nations, held an extraordinary summit to discuss the coup on Sunday. In a joint communique, ECOWAS leaders announced sanctions and said if Bazoum is not reinstated within a week, the bloc will “take all measures necessary to restore constitutional order” in Niger. “Such measures may include the use of force,” the leaders said.Following the ECOWAS summit, Blinken released a statement backing the bloc. “The United States welcomes and commends the strong leadership of the [ECOWAS] Heads of State and Government to defend constitutional order in Niger,” Blinken said.“We join ECOWAS and regional leaders in calling for the immediate release of President Mohamed Bazoum and his family and the restoration of all state functions to the legitimate, democratically-elected government,” the statement added.On Monday, one of the coup leaders in Niger claimed that the ousted government authorized a French military attack on the presidential palace to free Bazoum. According to Al Jazeera, in response to the allegations, the French Foreign Ministry did not confirm or deny if it was planning military intervention but said the only legitimate authority it recognized in Niger was Bazoum.Any military intervention carried out in Niger, whether by France or ECOWAS, could involve the US, as there are about 1,100 US troops in the country and a major American drone base known as Air Base 201. The US has provided counterterrorism assistance to Niger for about two decades, and at least one of the coup leaders previously received training from the US.

The True Symbol Of The United States Is The Pentagon – Caitlin Johnstone -- The real symbol of the United States is not the stars and stripes, nor the bald eagle, nor the Statue of Liberty, nor even the mighty McDonald’s logo. The real symbol of the United States is the Pentagon. The Pentagon should feature centrally on the US flag. It should be on the coins and on all the bills, and it should appear next to the name of every American in the Olympics. When anyone sees a five-sided polygon, they should immediately think “United States of America”. There is nothing more representative of the most significant things about the United States than the Pentagon. Sure the US has lovely national parks, an abundance of fast food chains and 500 million-dollar superhero movies, but nothing has anywhere near the effect on the world as the US government’s ability to project force around the planet with military violence and the threat thereof. That is the main thing that makes the US unique among nations, after all. Americans are taught from childhood to take special pride in their nation’s “freedom” and “democracy” (of which they have neither), when what actually makes their country stand out against the crowd is its role as the hub of a globe-spanning empire that is held together by nonstop military aggression. The five-sided building which houses the US Department of Defense — formerly called the Department of War until someone noticed that was a bit too truthful — is the perfect symbol for that empire. It conveys what the United States is really putting out into the world more accurately than any other. It’s easy to forget that you live in the hub of the most powerful empire in history when you actually live there, in the same way it’s so calm in the eye of a hurricane that you’d hardly know your world is being ripped apart around you. But because the US-centralized empire influences global dynamics so pervasively, and because every major international conflict in the world involves it to some degree, that’s what affects the most people in the world to the furthest extent right now. How much money they have. Whether they get to feed their kids today. Whether they’ll be torn to shreds by military explosives tomorrow. Whether they’ll have to watch everyone die in a nuclear holocaust next year.

John Bolton: ‘In a second Trump term, we’d almost certainly withdraw from NATO’ - Former Trump administration national security advisor John Bolton had harsh words for the former president, calling his foreign policy “erratic” and ineffective. “Donald Trump doesn’t really have a philosophy, as we understand it in political terms,” Bolton said in a Thursday interview on The Hill’s show on NewsNation. “He doesn’t think in policy directions when he makes decisions, certainly in the national security space. It’s all connected with how things benefit Donald Trump.”Bolton called the deal with the Taliban which led to the U.S. withdrawal a “disastrous mistake” and said that his dealings with Iran fell short. He also said Trump threatens the U.S. relationship with NATO.“In a second Trump term, we’d almost certainly withdraw from NATO,” he said. Much of the credit Trump gets for foreign policy victory in the eyes of Republicans is misplaced, Bolton claims.“Those who make these claims about what Trump did in his first term don’t really understand how we got to the places we did because many of the things they now give Trump credit for he wanted to go in the opposite direction.”Bolton, once a Trump ally and a member of his administration, turned on his former boss after leaving his role in 2019. He has since become a prominent critic of the former president and wrote a book detailing his experiences inside the White House.

U.S. military may put armed troops on commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz to stop Iran seizures - — The U.S. military is considering putting armed personnel on commercial ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, in what would be an unheard of action aimed at stopping Iran from seizing and harassing civilian vessels, four American officials told The Associated Press on Thursday.America didn’t even take the step during the “Tanker War,” which culminated with the U.S. Navy and Iran fighting a one-day naval battle in 1988 that was the Navy’s largest since World War II.While officials offered few details of the plan, it comes as thousands of Marines and sailors on both the amphibious assault ship USS Bataan and the USS Carter Hall, a landing ship, are on their way to the Persian Gulf. Those Marines and sailors could provide the backbone for any armed guard mission in the strait, through which 20 percent of all the world’s crude oil passes.Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the AP about the U.S. proposal. Four U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the proposal, acknowledged its broad details. The officials stressed no final decision had been made and that discussions continue between U.S. military officials and America’s Gulf Arab allies in the region.Officials said the Marines and Navy sailors would provide the security only at the request of the ships involved.The Bataan and Carter Hall left Norfolk, Va., on July 10 on a mission the Pentagon described as being “in response to recent attempts by Iran to threaten the free flow of commerce in the Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding waters.” The Bataan passed through the Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean Sea last week on its way to the Mideast.Already, the U.S. has sent A-10 Thunderbolt II warplanes, F-16 and F-35 fighters, as well as the destroyer USS Thomas Hudner, to the region over Iran’s actions at sea.The deployment has captured Iran’s attention, with its chief diplomat telling neighboring nations that the region doesn’t need “foreigners” providing security. On Wednesday, Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard launched a surprise military drill on disputed islands in the Persian Gulf, with swarms of small fast boats, paratroopers and missile units taking part.The renewed hostilities come as Iran now enriches uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade levels after the collapse of its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

GOP splits further over Tuberville’s military blockade as it stretches through summer - Tommy Tuberville’s abortion-related blockade of military promotions is uncomfortably splintering both the Senate GOP and Alabama Republicans. Now they’ll spend the summer stewing about it. The Alabama senator refused to allow any of the more than 250 stalled military promotions to quickly advance, retribution for the Defense Department allowing paid leave for abortions. Democrats, who could have called individual votes on the nominations over the August recess, ultimately decided it was the GOP’s responsibility to convince Tuberville. That didn’t happen, the Senate left for five weeks, and the Republican’s nearly five-month hold appears almost certain to stretch into September. And while conservatives are mainly cheering the football coach-turned senator on, there are signs that some Republicans are having a hard time accepting the one-man blockade. Summing up the feeling back in Alabama, Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Ala.) observed: “Mixed emotions.” “Some people like it, some people don’t understand it. Some of our older military folks aren’t really happy about it; they understand it better than anybody,” Carl said. The episode is in some ways a microcosm of the GOP as a whole, as the party weighs how far to take its opposition to President Joe Biden and his policies heading into a presidential election. In this case, one member is using scorched-earth tactics to fight the Biden administration over abortion policy, leaving other Republicans to answer for it. Take Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who said “everybody is asking me about this” back home. This is the time of year when military families in Alaska pack up and move to new posts, she said: “And if you don’t have the ability to move because promotions have been held up, you can’t make that happen.”

Tuberville blasts Biden’s Space Command decision: ‘This is absolutely not over’ Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) blasted President Biden’s decision Monday to keep the headquarters of the Space Command in Colorado, overturning former President Trump’s decision to move it to Alabama. “As soon as Joe Biden took office, he paused movement on that decision and inserted politics into what had been a fair and objective competition—not because the facts had changed, but because the political party of the sitting President had changed,” Tuberville said in his statement. Tuberville is locked in a standoff with the Pentagon over its abortion policy, placing a hold on hundreds of Biden’s military nominations in protest. Some officials have said Alabama’s restrictive abortions laws played into the Space Command HQ decision, though the White House said it was motivated entirely by concerns that a major move would undermine military readiness. Tuberville wrote that it was “shameful” the Biden administration waited until Congress was in recess to make this decision, noting it came after the House and Senate passed versions of next year’s defense budget. The two chambers still need to hammer out a final version of the defense budget. And he claimed that Colorado Springs did not even crack the top three sites for the headquarters in a review by the Air Force, trailing locations in Alabama, Nebraska and Texas. “This decision to bypass the three most qualified sites looks like blatant patronage politics, and it sets a dangerous precedent that military bases are now to be used as rewards for political supporters rather than for our security,” he wrote. Trump’s initial decision to move the HQ to Alabama also prompted claims of political motivations from Democrats. Alabama overwhelmingly voted for Trump in the 2020 election and has two GOP senators, while Colorado voted for Biden and has two Democratic senators. Tuberville on Monday said the fight to bring the headquarters to Alabama was “not over,” adding he hopes House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) will continue an investigation into the matter.

Who’s buying up land around major Air Force base in California? ‘We have no idea’ - A mysterious investment company is buying up large tracts of land around a California Air Force base, raising questions about who is behind the firm — and its intentions — amid growing fears about Chinese businesses acquiring land near American military sites. The investment firm Flannery Associates has bought around $800 million worth of land around Travis Air Force Base in northern California’s Solano County, which is midway between Sacramento and San Francisco. Flannery Associates filed a lawsuit in May against a group of landowners, accusing the farmers of conspiring to inflate the value of the property — drawing further scrutiny from policymakers including Rep. John Garamendi (D-Calif.). Since 2018, Flannery, registered as an agricultural company, has purchased more than 50,000 acres in Solano County, according to public records and detailed maps obtained by The Hill. The acquired property runs directly up to Travis Air Force Base. Garamendi, a House Armed Services Committee member, told The Hill that he has been investigating the land acquisitions for nearly two years and has come up with few answers to his questions. “We have no idea who they are,” Garamendi said. “Flannery Associates is opaque. We have no idea where the nearly $900 million dollars has come from. They bought well over 55,000 acres of land in the area and [the purchase] raises a major concern.” The Hill could not immediately contact Flannery Associates for comment. The firm claims that 97 percent of its investors are U.S.-based, but Garamendi said there is no way to verify that claim. The business registry address for the company is located at a packaging shop in a shopping center in Folsom, Calif., according to the business registrar for California. Also concerning to Garamendi and Rep. Mike Thompson (D-Calif.), who is also looking into the shadowy company, is why the land is being purchased. The land is dry farmland, good for agricultural grazing, but the approaching $1 billion price tag seems astronomically high and would take decades to turn a profit, according to Garamendi, who noted there are also wind turbines on the land. The Air Force’s Foreign Investment Risk Review office is reviewing the land purchases from Flannery, according to Garamendi. Garamendi also said the FBI and the Treasury Department launched inquiries into the decision about a month ago. Garamendi alleges the lawsuit filed by the company against landowners is a “classic SLAPP suit specifically designed to force the landowners to lawyer up,” and ultimately rack up legal fees until they are exhausted and agree to sell.

"I've Never Seen Anything Like This" - Mysterious Chinese Bio-Lab Discovered In Remote California City - Why would a bio-lab run by a shady Chinese company be operating in Reedley, CA in the central San Joaquin Valley? What was supposed to be an empty building used only for storage was home to a black-market type of lab testing facility. YourCentralValley.com reports that the discovery was made after a local code enforcement officer noticed this garden hose poking out a back wall of the building. Public Health staff also observed blood, tissue and other bodily fluid samples and serums; and THOUSANDS of vials of unlabeled fluids and suspected biological material. Additionally they found 900 genetically engineered mice, engineered to catch and carry COVID-19, living in “inhumane” conditions. 773 of the mice had to be euthanized, and officials found another 178 mice already dead.“This is an unusual situation. I’ve been in government for 25 years. I’ve never seen anything like this,” said Reedley City Manager Nicole Zieba.Even county health officials were left in shock. “I’ve never seen this in my 26-year career with the County of Fresno,” said Assistant Director of the Fresno County Department of Public Health Joe Prado. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tested the substances and detected at least 20 potentially infectious agents, including coronavirus, HIV, hepatitis and herpes, according to a Health and Human Services letter dated June 6. Agents also found thousands of package boxes - many with shipping labels from China. Below is a photo included in court documents in California. NBC News reports that an investigation found the tenant was Prestige BioTech, a company registered in Nevada and unlicensed for business in California. City officials spoke with Xiuquin Yao, who was identified as the company president, through emails included in the court documents. Yao told officials that Prestige BioTech moved assets belonging to a defunct company, Universal Meditech Inc., to the Reedley warehouse from Fresno after UMI went under. Prestige Biotech was a creditor to UMI and identified as its successor, according to court documents. Officials were unable to get any California-based address for either company except for the previous Fresno location from which UMI had been evicted. "The other addresses provided for identified authorized agents were either empty offices or addresses in China that could not be verified," court documents said.As Kyle Bass asks in a brief tweet-thread: Is this illegal lab the tip of the iceberg? How many additional bioagent labs will be found?

A monumental UFO scandal is looming -- The decades-long saga of unidentified flying objects (UFOs) is barreling headlong toward one of two stunning conclusions. Either the U.S. government has mounted an extraordinary, decades-long coverup of UFO retrieval and reverse-engineering activities, or elements of the defense and intelligence establishment are engaging in a staggeringly brazen psychological disinformation campaign. Either possibility would have profound implications for democracy, the role of government and perhaps also humanity’s place in the cosmos. For these reasons, it is imperative that Congress and federal law enforcement agencies devote significant resources to investigating a series of remarkable UFO-related developments. Importantly, a third explanation for recent events — that dozens of high-level, highly-cleared officials have come to believe enduring UFO myths, rumors and speculation as fact — appears increasingly unlikely. In June, U.S. Air Force veteran and former intelligence official David Grusch alleged that elements of the U.S. government have secretly and illegally overseen a decades-long UFO retrieval and reverse-engineering effort. Two defense officials corroborated the broad contours of Grusch’s stunning claims.Grusch has stated that he provided a wealth of highly classified evidence to the powerful internal investigative agencies overseeing the Department of Defense and the U.S intelligence community, but he has not presented any such evidence publicly. However, the officials and lawmakers who have reviewed Grusch’s classified evidence are taking his extraordinary allegations seriously. The inspector general of the intelligence community deemed Grusch’s allegations that UFO-related information was inappropriately concealed from Congress “credible and urgent.” Senate Intelligence Vice Chairman Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) confirmed the inspector general’s finding.

Did the government confirm aliens exist? — As in decades past, the question of whether aliens exist continues to captivate Americans. Following Wednesday’s widely-watched Congressional hearing on UAPs and UFOs, people flocked to social media — many proclaiming the government confirmed aliens exist. But that’s not actually what happened at the hearing. While witnesses and lawmakers discussed the issue of UFOs, the government has not issued any official confirmation of alien life and what was said at the hearing, by witnesses and even a lawmaker, remains unverified. Here’s what we do (and don’t) know after the hearing:

• Whistleblower David Grusch largely recounted second-hand testimony and provided no evidence to support his claims. Grusch is a former member of the UAP Task Force.
• Former Navy Commander and pilot David Fravor recounted a first-hand experience with the so-called Tic Tac UFO but said he was never briefed on the object or its potential origins.
• Former Navy pilot Ryan Graves, who founded the Americans for Safe Aerospace, also recounted an encounter he had with an object he described as a black sphere floating inside a clear cube. Graves indicated such encounters were extremely common among pilots. There was no evidence presented to support this claim.
• While lawmakers seemed largely accepting of the witness testimony, only Rep. Matt Gaetz,R.-Fla., said he had seen any evidence of alien life firsthand.
• Grusch was unable to answer a number of inquiries regarding specific evidence or proof in an open setting, though he indicated he would be willing to say more in a secure, classified briefing.
• All three witnesses agreed these unidentified objects constituted a potential national security threat.
• Official government bodies, including the White House, Pentagon, and NASA have all stated they have no reason to believe unexplained objects are extraterrestrial in nature.
• National Security Council Spokesman John Kirby said after the hearing there are “no hard and fast” answers to the question but that the administration is taking it seriously.

Appeals court hands Biden win with asylum decision -- President Biden has maintained that a rule restricting asylum is crucial to his administration’s efforts in managing the U.S.-Mexico border, but in late July a lower court decision found the policy to be illegal and ordered it to be terminated by Monday. But in a turn of events, the U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals on Thursday granted the Biden administration temporary reprieve from the lower court’s decision, allowing the controversial practice to stay in place, according to the Associated Press.The administration asked the rule to remain while larger court battles about its legality get worked out.The rule makes it difficult for anyone to seek asylum without first seeking protection in the country they are traveling through on their way to the U.S. or applying online.The asylum rule was put in place in May after Title 42 came to an end.

Mexico recovers 2 bodies from Rio Grande, one found near floating barrier Texas installed - — Mexican authorities are trying to identify two bodies found in the Rio Grande this week, including one that was spotted along the floating barrier that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott had installed recently in the river, across from Eagle Pass, Texas.Mexico’s Foreign Relations Department reported for the first time Wednesday that a body had been found along the floating barrier. The Coahuila state prosecutor’s office later told local media outlets that the two bodies were recovered and that the process of identification was underway.The Texas Department of Public Safety said in a statement Thursday that it had received a report Wednesday of “a possible drowning victim floating upstream from the marine barrier and notified (U.S. Customs and Border Protection) and the Mexican Consulate.” The agency said that later Wednesday, a second body was found at the marine barrier.“Preliminary information suggests this individual drowned upstream from the marine barrier and floated into the buoys,” Steve McCraw, the DPS director said. “There are personnel posted at the marine barrier at all times in case any migrants try to cross.”Abbott’s office and U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Mexico’s Foreign Relations Department initially said one body was found along the barrier, then hours later said a second body was found about 3 miles upriver, away from the area of the buoys. The cause of death is unknown in both cases.Many had warned about the danger of the barrier, designed to make it more difficult for migrants to climb over or swim under.Mexico had warned about the risks posed by the bright orange, wrecking ball-sized buoys on the Rio Grande. The Foreign Relations Department also claimed the barrier violates treaties regarding the use of the river and Mexico’s sovereignty.

4 million cut from Medicaid in the United States --Nearly 4 million people on Medicaid, the US health coverage program for the poor and disabled, have been disenrolled as of the end of July, according to figures compiled by the Associated Press, the Kaiser Family Foundation and health advocacy groups. The latest data from 39 states and the District of Columbia tally 3,816,000 Medicaid enrollees who have been removed from the program as of July 28. Adding in the 11 states that have not reported their disenrollments will drive the figure well above 4 million, and possibly as high as 5 million. The process of disenrollment is taking place as a result of a bipartisan agreement between the Biden administration and congressional Republican leaders incorporated into the omnibus spending authorization bill that was passed by Congress and signed by Biden last December. That deal set a March 31, 2023, deadline for ending a freeze on Medicaid disenrollments imposed under the Trump administration because of the COVID-19 pandemic, and extended under Biden. States were not banned from reviewing Medicaid recipients and designating them as ineligible, but they could not actually proceed with the disenrollment. As a result of the freeze, Medicaid enrollments grew from 71 million in 2019 to 93 million in 2022, more than a quarter of the American population. This vast population is now subject to the renewal process, termed “unwinding,” from April 1, 2023, until July 2024. The number disenrolled could easily surpass 10 million. Five states began disenrollments on April 1, the first day they could legally do so, and 14 more states began on May 1. Of these 19 states, five have Democratic governors: Arizona, Connecticut, Kansas, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. By August 1, nearly every state had begun disenrollments, whether under Republican or Democratic control. The most noxious feature of this campaign against the poorest and most vulnerable sections of the working class is that the vast majority of disenrollments are not based on a determination of ineligibility—a child aging out of the system, or a low-paid worker finding a better job—but due to paperwork errors. Nearly three-quarters of those disenrolled missed a deadline for submitting a form, or filled out the form incorrectly, or made some other technical mistake. Large numbers of those disenrolled did not receive the necessary forms from the state, or received them after the deadline for filing them had passed. In some cases, recipients were disenrolled because the state government mishandled their paperwork after they sent it in. Moreover, since many Medicaid recipients were rolled over automatically during the pandemic freeze, millions were entirely unfamiliar with the recertification process that began April 1, and many states made no effort to provide the necessary information. On the contrary, they counted on paperwork errors to boost the number of disenrollments from a program most Republican governors have long opposed, and which the Republican Party is committed to dismantling or privatizing.

New income-driven student loan repayment plan available to borrowers - The Department of Education released a beta website Monday for the Biden administration’s new income-driven student loan repayment plan, known as the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan. “A beta version of the updated [income-driven repayment (IDR)] application is now available and includes the option to enroll in the new SAVE Plan — the most affordable repayment plan yet,” the department said on the site. Previously, the administration had numerous IDR options for borrowers, which advocates have said led to a confusing system for borrowers. The new SAVE plan will replace the Revised Pay As You Earn Repayment (REPAYE) plan, one of the most widely used of the four IDR options available to borrowers. The other three IDR plans will be phased out or limited by the department. The SAVE plan will make three significant changes this year compared to the REPAYE option. The first raises the income exemption from 150 percent above the poverty line to 225 percent, meaning a single person earning less than $32,800 would have $0 monthly payments under the plan. The plan also won’t allow unpaid interest to grow if a person is making their monthly student loan payments. Lastly, spousal income for borrowers who are married and file separately will not be included. The website — first reported by CNN — shows a demo of the application process, where some information, such as tax returns, can be automatically inserted due to information the government has on file for a borrower. “When fully live, millions of borrowers will be able to complete the new application in ten minutes or less and will never have to reapply,” a Department of Education official said. “The new IDR auto-recertification feature will prevent borrowers from the risk of missing their annual IDR recertification date, which has caused millions of borrowers each year to delay their time toward forgiveness and incur additional interest charges.”

Lawsuit filed to stop new student loan income-driven repayment plan The New Civil Liberties Alliance (NCLA) filed a lawsuit Friday against the Biden administration’s new student loan income-driven repayment (IDR) plan. The lawsuit comes after the Department of Education launched a beta website this week for the Saving on Valuable Education (SAVE) application, the new IDR plan the White House has dubbed the “most generous” for student borrowers. The NCLA, on behalf of the Cato Institute and the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, filed a suit in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan to stop the implementation of this plan. The NCLA is arguing that the new IDR plan violates the Constitution’s Appropriations Clause, which allows Congress to be in charge of what debt owed to the Treasury can be canceled. Under the SAVE plan, loan forgiveness would come quicker for many borrowers. For one, the plan allows borrower whose student loan has an original principal balance of $12,000 or less to get forgiveness after 10 years of payments. It also allows certain periods of deferment and forbearance to count toward the time needed to get full forgiveness on an individual’s loan. “In the Nebraska case, the Supreme Court struck down the Department of Education’s brazen attempt to pull a billion-dollar ‘elephant’ out of a statutory ‘mousehole.’ This time the Department’s loan-cancellation scheme does not even pretend to have a statutory ‘mousehole,'” said Sheng Li, Litigation Counsel for NCLA. “The [Public Service Loan Forgiveness] and IDR statutes require borrowers to make a certain number of monthly payments before earning forgiveness. By trying to count non-payments as payments, the strategy seems to be to cancel $39 billion faster than a court can review and stop this blatantly unlawful act,” Li continued. Along with the $39 billion the NCLA says the department could cancel almost immediately, it would allow debt to be canceled for 2.8 million more IDR borrowers in the future. “Instead of promulgating the plan through the required notice-and-comment and negotiated rulemaking process under the Administrative Procedure Act, the Department simply issued a press release that did not identify any laws to justify it,” the NCLA wrote.The challenge to the SAVE plan comes two months before student loan borrowers will be forced back into repayment after the three-year COVID-19 student loan pause.

Senate Democrats press Roberts on Alito recusals --Ten Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee, led by chairman Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), implored Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts in a letter Thursday to ensure Justice Samuel Alito will recuse himself from future cases pertaining to legislation regulating the high court. The senators’ request hinged on an interview Alito gave to the Wall Street Journal last week, where he opined that the U.S. Constitution does not give Congress the authority to regulate the Court, “period.” “Congress did not create the Supreme Court,” Alito said of efforts to legislate ethics regulations. “I know this is a controversial view, but I’m willing to say it.” The Democratic senators — all of the Judiciary Committee’s majority members except Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) — rebuffed Alito’s perspective as “plainly incorrect” and raised concern that he “publicly prejudged” the issues, which could land before the Court. They referred back to testimony Alito gave during his 2006 confirmation hearing, where he said he “wouldn’t want to prejudge any constitutional question that might be presented to me.” “And yet, we now have Justice Alito publicly remarking on the constitutionality of pending legislation — comments that unquestionably engender doubt that he could fairly discharge his duties should this question come before the Court,” the senators wrote. The request for Roberts to take “appropriate steps” to ensure Alito recuses himself on any cases related to Court regulation comes amid increased scrutiny of the Supreme Court justices’ ethics. “Since 2011, you have argued that the Supreme Court can police its own ethical conduct,” the senators wrote to Roberts. “Yet, this year has been marked by revelation after revelation of justices receiving lavish gifts that they failed to disclose as required by law or otherwise using their offices and taxpayer-funded resources for personal gain.”

Kagan argues Congress can regulate aspects of Supreme Court --Justice Elena Kagan said during a public appearance Thursday that Congress can regulate aspects of the Supreme Court, a comment that comes as Democrats push a bill that would mandate a binding code of ethics for the justices.Kagan was asked her thoughts on the issue during an appearance at the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals Judicial Conference, less than a week after Justice Samuel Alito said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal’s opinion section that Congress lacked the authority to regulate the high court.A member of the court’s liberal wing, Kagan declined to respond directly to her conservative colleague, indicating she had read the interview but was unsure exactly what question he was responding to.But she went on to note that Congress funds the Supreme Court and regulates its jurisdiction.“Can Congress do various things to regulate the Supreme Court? I think the answer is yes,” she told the crowd.“That doesn’t say what things,” Kagan continued. “And I want to say on the other hand, can Congress do anything it wants? Well, I’m going to say no, it can’t do anything it wants. If Congress did something that effectively prevented the court from fulfilling its assigned responsibilities, I mean, that would raise some pretty serious constitutional issues.”She declined to comment specifically on the proposal advanced by the Senate Judiciary Committee on a party-line vote last month. The bill, which has slim odds of reaching President Biden’s desk, would require the court to adopt disclosure rules for gifts, travel and income received by justices and law clerks that are as rigorous as Senate and House disclosure rules. Kagan said she didn’t want to weigh in on a proposal Congress was actively considering, also suggesting the Supreme Court could end up ruling on the issue in the future.“It just can’t be that the court is the only institution that somehow is not subject to any checks and balances from anybody else,” she said. “We are not imperial, and we, too, are part of a checking and balancing system in various ways.”

Democrat mocks Greene after call for decorum: ‘She showed us a d‑‑‑ pic last week’ –- Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) mocked Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) call for decorum at a House subcommittee hearing Thursday, pointing to the congresswoman’s presentation of sexually explicit posters on a separate panel last week. “Marjorie needs to remember she showed us a dick pic last week,” Garcia tweeted Thursdayafter Greene interrupted his remarks at a hearing on COVID-19 vaccine mandates to call for decorum. The California Democrat displayed a tweet from Greene at the hearing, in which she compared vaccine and mask mandates to the yellow Star of David that Jews were required to wear by the Nazis in the lead-up to the Holocaust. “We have seen this tweet behind us before,” Garcia said Thursday, gesturing to a poster of the tweet. “And this person, of course, sits on this very committee, who just actually gave some very irresponsible facts to our witnesses and the committee as well.”“But just like [Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.] and other conspiracy theorists, members of this committee continue and continue to attack vaccines,” he added. Greene interrupted Garcia to make a point of order and asked that members “be reminded of the rules of decorum.” Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio), who serves as the chairman of the Oversight Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, appeared to read off a pre-prepared statement on decorum in response to Greene’s request. “While vigorous disagreement is part of the legislative process, members are reminded that we must adhere to established standards of decorum and debate,” Wenstrup said. “It is a violation of House rules and the rules of this committee to engage in personalities regarding other members or to question the motives of a colleague.”

As he prepares for Hill testimony, Hunter Biden's ex-business partner also trying to fend off jail -On the eve of high-profile testimony to a House committee, Hunter Biden’s longtime business partner Devon Archer is wrangling with the Justice Department about when he should report to prison on unrelated charges. A jury in 2018 convicted Archer of two felonies for his role in a conspiracy to defraud a Native American tribe, but his 2022 sentence has been repeatedly postponed amid a long-running series of appeals. On Saturday, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York wrote to trial judge Ronnie Abrams and asked her to schedule a date for Archer to report to prison, after the Second Circuit Court of Appeals finalized an order days earlier upholding his one-year sentence. The court isn’t expected to make a decision before Archer will meet behind closed doors with the House Oversight Committee, meaning that even if the court ultimately sides with the request Archer wouldn’t have to report to prison before the meeting. And his attorney said in a statement that he will move forward with his planned appearance Monday. A spokesperson for the office of United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York declined to comment on the filing or the timing of the letter. But according to the one-page letter, filed by assistant U.S. attorney Negar Tekeei, prosecutors had asked Archer’s attorney to recommend a reporting date in light of the Second Circuit ruling but were rebuffed. Archer’s counsel, according to the DOJ letter, said it was “premature” to set a sentencing date because Archer was considering further appeals and intended to raise an “error” in the sentencing process. Archer’s lawyer plans to file a response to the U.S. attorney’s demands by Wednesday. Matthew Schwartz, Archer’s attorney, also rejected the notion that there’s any connection between Archer’s tiff with the Justice Department and his potentially imminent jail time. “We are aware of speculation that the Department of Justice’s weekend request to have Mr. Archer report to prison is an attempt by the Biden administration to intimidate him in advance of his meeting with the House Oversight Committee,” Schwartz said in a statement. “To be clear, Mr. Archer does not agree with that speculation. In any case, Mr. Archer will do what he has planned to do all along, which is to show up on Monday and to honestly answer the questions that are put to him by the Congressional investigators.”

Devon Archer Spills The Beans: Tells Congress About Shady Burisma Dealings, Joe Biden's "More Than 20" Conversations --Hunter Biden's former business partner Devon Archer has spilled the beans to Congress, telling lawmakers in a closed-door session that Burisma Holdings pressured Hunter Biden in December 2015 to 'deal with' a Ukrainian prosecutor who was investigating the firm for corruption - shortly before then-VP Joe Biden threatened Ukraine with a quid-pro-quo over US aid in exchange for firing said prosecutor.According to Just the News, Archer also told the House Oversight and Accountability Committee that Hunter Biden was hired to sit on the board of Burisma because his family's "brand" had value at a time when the firm was facing corruption allegations from not only Ukraine's own prosecutor general's office, but the US and Great Britain as well."Devon Archer testified that the value of adding Hunter Biden to Burisma’s board was 'the brand' and confirmed that then-Vice President Joe Biden brought the most value to 'the brand,'" an anonymous source told JTN. "Archer also stated that Burisma would have gone under if not for 'the brand." Archer also contradicted Joe Biden's claims that he had never met with Hunter Biden's foreign business associates - telling the committee that Joe Biden had gotten on speakerphone over 20 times with his son's business clients - not to engage in specific business, but he "was put on the phone to sell 'the brand.'"The former business partner at the Rosemont Seneca firm, who was convicted in 2018 in a tribal bond fraud scheme, also told lawmakers that Hunter Biden was pressured in late 2015 to help deal with Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin's corruption investigation as Joe Biden was preparing to travel to Ukraine. -JTN"In December 2015, Mykola Zlochevsky, the owner of Burisma, and Vadym Pozharski, an executive of Burisma, placed constant pressure on Hunter Biden to get help from D.C. regarding the Ukrainian prosecutor, Viktor Shokin," the source told JTN. "Shokin was investigating Burisma for corruption. Hunter Biden, along with Zlochevsky and Pozharski, 'called D.C.' to discuss the matter. Biden, Zlochevsky, and Pozharski stepped away to take make the call."A few days after that meeting, Joe Biden visited Ukraine as vice president and began an effort to force Ukraine's president to fire Shokin, eventually threatening to withhold $1 billion in U.S. loan guarantees if the termination did not happen. Biden's defenders have long maintained the firing was not related to Burisma and was a result of U.S. policy because the Obama administration felt Shokin was corrupt.

'Nothing to see' according to Dems in regards to Biden corruption – By NY Post Editorial Board --With neither the facts nor the law on their side, Democrats and much of the media have fallen back on simply insisting there’s just nothing to see when it comes to Biden family corruption. If so, why don’t they want anyone looking?The House GOP investigation “needs to end now,” NYC’s own Rep. Dan Goldman told CNN; it’s nothing but “badgering a private citizen,” Hunter Biden, with “no legitimate legislative purpose at all.”And looking into Hunter’s (now sidelined) plea deal is just “the taxpayer-funded defense and political arm of Donald Trump.”Um, no. For starters, asking why the Justice Department sought an utterly unprecedented plea bargain that would’ve given President Joe Biden’s son blanket immunity for any crimes (not just the ones he was pleading to) plainly has a “legitimate legislative purpose”: It’s called “oversight.”At the very least, someone needs to explain Justice letting the statute of limitations expire on Hunter’s most blatant tax violations when the evidence was already ample.And why, five years on, it’s still silent on his failure to register as a foreign agent, when that “work” was how he “earned” those millions.Thanks to the GOP probes, whistleblowers and other witnesses are still providing new and damning information on both Hunter’s influence-peddling and Joe’s collusion in it, as well asJustice interference in the Republican investigations.Even if then-Veep Biden never directly promised any results to Hunter’s overseas clients, he surely knew what signal he sent by getting on the phone — dozens of times, per Devon Archer — with Hunter and the clients, even for meaningless chit-chat.And with most of the Biden family getting paid (a total in tens of millions!) by those clients, and Hunter’s finances (at least) mingled with Joe’s, there’s plenty of reason to suspect a pro quo as well as a quid in all this.Nor is any of this about Trump, even if he winds up the 2024 GOP nominee — not unless Goldman & Co. start claiming that all the investigations of Trump are just gifts to Biden.The media wing of the “nothing there” movement is every bit as slimy: The New York Times story on Devon Archer’s testimony Monday suddenly asserts, “It has long been known that the elder Mr. Biden at times interacted with his son’s business partners,” even as the same story elsewhere admits, “In 2019, Mr. Biden also repeatedly said he had ‘never discussed’ and had ‘never spoken to’ Hunter Biden about his business dealings.”In other words: This is old news, though the Times itself never mentioned it.

GOP releases Devon Archer transcript after lawmakers give conflicting accounts -House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) on Thursday released the transcript of a closed-door interview the panel conducted with Devon Archer, the former business associate of Hunter Biden whom Republicans view as a key witness in their investigation into the Biden family’s business dealings.In the days between the interview and the release of the transcript, House members haveoffered conflicting interpretations of the testimony, with Republicans arguing it proved that President Biden “lied” when he said he had never spoken to his son about his foreign business dealings, and Democrats claiming the opposite and saying the testimony showed the president was not involved in his son’s business dealings.Archer sat for a transcribed interview with the Oversight Committee for more than five hours on Monday. The transcript spans 141 pages, and is accompanied by 24 pages ofdocuments discussed during the interview.“Today, we are releasing the transcript from Devon Archer’s interview with our committee,” the House Oversight Committee wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.Following Archer’s closed-door interview, lawmakers said the witness testified that Hunter Biden sometimes put President Biden, then the vice president, on speakerphone with foreign business partners. Lawmakers also said Archer discussed Hunter Biden selling the “illusion of access” to his father.Comer on Thursday pointed out several “key exchanges” from Archer’s testimony, including a claim from the Archer that Burisma, the Ukrainian energy company he and Hunter Biden sat on the board of, “would have gone out of business if it didn’t have the brand attached to it.”He also highlighted exchanges about two dinners Joe Biden attended with Hunter Biden’s foreign business associates in 2014 and 2015 at Cafe Milano in Washington, D.C.But in another part of his testimony, when asked if he was aware of any wrongdoing by President Biden, Archer responded “no, I’m not aware of any.”In a statement on Thursday, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), the ranking member of the Oversight panel, fired back at Comer and reiterated that Archer’s testimony shoots down the idea that President Biden was involved in his son’s business dealings.“Once again, Committee Republicans’ priority investigation into President Biden has failed to produce any evidence of wrongdoing by President Biden,” Raskin wrote. “On Monday, Devon Archer, Hunter Biden’s former business associate, confirmed in a transcribed interview that President Biden was never involved in Hunter’s business dealings, never profited from such dealings, and never took official action in relation to these business dealings.” “Mr. Archer repeatedly explained that across a decade-long relationship with Hunter Biden, he was not aware of President Biden ever discussing Hunter Biden’s business. Instead, Devon Archer described how Hunter Biden sold the ‘illusion’ of access to his father—access he never actually provided,” he added.

READ: Devon Archer interview transcript released by House Oversight panel - The House Oversight and Accountability Committee has released a transcript for its interview with Devon Archer, a former business associate of Hunter Biden.The 141-page document covers Archer’s hours-long interview Monday attended by Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) with counsel and staffers.Republicans and Democrats have offered clashing views over the significance of the testimony, during which Archer agreed that Hunter Biden was selling the “illusion of access” to his father. Archer also testified the younger Biden “occasionally” put his father on speakerphone with business partners and others. Goldman emphasized afterward that “they never once spoke about any business dealings.” Read the transcript here: (embedded)

Jill Biden's ex-husband - who claims she cheated on him with Joe - slams 'Biden crime family' for targeting HIM and Trump despite Hunter's 'tax crimes' and brands President 'dangerous' -Jill Biden's ex-husband has slammed what he described as the 'Biden crime family' for 'targeting' him and Donald Trump, as the president's son Hunter faces mounting legal troubles. Bill Stevenson, who was married to the First Lady from 1970 to 1975, previously told DailyMail.com that he was still married to Jill when she met Joe, and has always denied the Bidens' well-publicized story of having met on a blind date. Speaking to Newsmax on Wednesday, the 75-year-old said the president's brother Frankie Biden tried to intimidate him during his divorce to Jill, and claimed he faced repercussions when he did not listen to the alleged threats. 'Frankie Biden of the Biden crime family comes up to me and he goes, "Give her the house or you’re going to have serious problems,"' Stevenson claimed. 'I looked at Frankie and I said, "Are you threatening me?" and needless to say, about two months later, my brother and I were indicted for that tax charge for $8,200.'When asked to clarify whether he believed his ex's second husband was behind the tax charge he faced, Stevenson said, 'I not only think it, but I know it.'He went on to compare his alleged situation to former president Trump's legal woes; Trump is currently facing charges of conspiracy to obstruct justice, withholding a document or record, corruptly concealing a document or record, and concealing a document in a federal investigation.'I was on the wrong side of them and they have literally come after me for 35 years in a row,' Stevenson, a staunch Trump supporter, continued.'It’s hard to believe what they’re doing to President Trump... I can't let them do this to a president I love and respect... This is the only reason I’ve come forward. 'It’s like I said, nothing about the divorce, no bitterness, but Jimmy, Frankie, and President Biden are very dangerous, and it’s tragic. I can’t let them do what they did to me to President Trump. I can’t do it.'

Judge rules Trump false election claims while in office covered by presidential immunity -A Pennsylvania state judge ruled Monday that an election worker cannot sue former President Trump over statements he made sowing doubt in the 2020 election results while in office, finding the statements are protected by presidential immunity. Philadelphia County Court of Common Pleas Judge Michael Erdos said Trump’ had immunity’s immunity covered a tweet he issued and comments he made remotely from the White House during a Pennsylvania state Senate committee hearing in November 2020. The statements, made without evidence, claimed fraud in Pennsylvania’s election tabulations. “Other legal proceedings may examine the propriety of his statements and actions while he was the President and whether, as the plaintiffs in this and other cases contend, it was this conduct which served as the actual threat to our democracy,” Erdos ruled. “But this case is not the proper place to do so. Here, Trump is entitled to Presidential immunity.” James Savage, a Pennsylvania voting machine supervisor in the 2020 election, filed two lawsuits — which have since been consolidated — alleging that Trump, Rudy Giuliani, two poll watchers and others conspired to defame him. Savage says their statements led him to receive death threats and suffer two heart attacks. Erdos ruled Trump has immunity for the tweet and the remarks at the state Senate hearing because both statements were made while he was serving as president. But the lawsuit also contains claims over a letter Trump wrote to the House Jan. 6 committeelast October, which Trump is not immune from as it was written after leaving office. Erdos ruled the two earlier statements were part of Trump’s official duties, as he was speaking to the public on matters of public concern. “Here, then-President Trump’s Gettysburg remarks and his tweet were public,” Erdos wrote. “Moreover, the topic of these statements—claims from third parties and the President himself about irregularities in the Presidential election which on their face called into question the integrity of the election and whether now-President Joseph Biden had been duly elected—was undoubtedly a matter of great public concern.”

Trump co-defendant Carlos De Oliveira released on $100K bond - Carlos De Oliveira, former President Trump’s newest co-defendant in the Mar-a-Lago case, was released on a $100,000 bond after an initial court appearance Monday. De Oliveira was named as a co-conspirator in the case in a Thursday superseding indictment that accused the Mar-a-Lago property manager of coordinating with Trump to attempt to delete security camera footage that showed him and another defendant in the case, Walt Nauta, moving boxes in and out of a storage room. De Oliveira has not secured a Florida attorney in the case and did not enter a formal plea. He is facing obstruction of justice charges as well as charges for making false statements to investigators. The indictment noted efforts from de Oliveira, 56, to determine how long security footage was stored on the Mar-a-Lago system. It says he later told another Mar-a-Lago employee that “‘the boss’ wanted the server deleted.” The filing also notes a 24-minute call between de Oliveira and Trump shortly after the Justice Department warned it would soon be subpoenaing the video camera footage from Mar-a-Lago. The indictment also notes Nauta and de Oliveira’s attempts to apparently conceal their plans, describing walking among the bushes around the IT office where the security footage was managed. At another point, de Oliveira and Nauta “walked with a flashlight through the tunnel where the storage room was located, and observed and pointed out security cameras.” Another portion of the indictment notes an alleged promise from Trump to get de Oliveira an attorney. De Oliveira is set to be arraigned August 10.

Christie knocks Trump for using donations to help pay legal bills GOP presidential candidate Chris Christie took aim at former President Trump for using donations to help cover his legal bills amid numerous court battles. “And the fact is, when you look at just his campaign filings yesterday, almost most of the money that middle-class Americans have given to him, he spent on his own legal fees,” Christie said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday. “I mean, this guy’s a billionaire.”Christie said that instead of using his donations to pay for his legal fees, the former president should sell his Trump Tower, his plane or one of his golf courses to do so.“But instead, he’s taking $25, $50, $100 from everyday Americans who believe they’re giving it to him to help elect him president, and he’s paying his legal fees,” Christie said.According to new campaign finance filings, Trump’s joint fundraising committee reported raising nearly $54 million during the first half of 2023. However, the filings also show that his political committees spent about $25 million on legal fees during the same period, meaning that Trump has gone through much of what was already raised. The Associated Press reported that Trump’s spending on legal fees was actually closer to $40 million, according to a person familiar with the matter.Christie also knocked Trump over his ongoing legal battles, questioning why Republican voters might believe independent voters will vote for a candidate who could face prison time.“And let’s face the fact here. Donald Trump, by the time we get to the debate in three weeks, will probably be out on bail in four different jurisdictions,” he said.

More Republicans in new poll say Trump committed ‘serious’ crimes - More Republicans in a new poll released Tuesday said former President Trump has committed “serious” federal crimes, as he faces down another potential indictment in the Justice Department’s Jan. 6 probe.The New York Times/Siena College poll found that 13 percent of Republicans said they believe the former president has committed serious crimes, up from 6 percent last September. The portion of Republicans who said they remain unsure whether Trump committed serious crimes also ticked upward in Tuesday’s poll, rising from 10 percent to 13 percent.However, the vast majority of Republicans — 74 percent — still said that they do not believe the former president committed serious crimes, the poll found. Trump said Monday that he is expecting to be indicted in special counsel Jack Smith’s Jan. 6 probe “any day now,” having received a letter last month notifying him that he is a target of the investigation. His attorneys also met with members of Smith’s office last week — an event that similarly preceded his last federal indictment. The former president pleaded not guilty in June to a 37-count indictment over his alleged mishandling of classified documents and efforts to block the government from recovering them. However, the Justice Department brought new charges against Trump in the case last week, accusing him of attempting to delete surveillance footage at his Mar-a-Lago property.

Panic at Mar-a-Lago: How the new obstruction charges may produce even more witnesses against Trump - Special counsel Jack Smith’s superseding indictment in the classified documents case adds three obstruction counts based on former President Trump’s alleged attempt to destroy security camera footage at his Mar-a-Lago Club. The charges make an already strong case even stronger. But their real significance is the pressure Smith’s investigations are putting on Trump’s employees to turn against him. Often the strategy of attorneys for a chief executive under criminal investigation is to maintain a unified front with his employees who may have been involved with, or have knowledge of, the executive’s misdeeds. “We need to stick together,” is sometimes the message from the executive’s attorneys to the employees’ attorneys. That’s why the defection of even a low-level employee to the prosecutors can be a turning point in an investigation, which brings us to “Trump Employee 4” in the superseding indictment (reportedly, Yuscil Taveras). Employee 4 oversaw the surveillance camera footage at Mar-a-Lago. He went from minor employee to key player when in June 2022 a Trump attorney received a draft grand jury subpoena seeking the camera footage. The next day, Trump spoke for 24 minutes with Carlos De Oliveira, the Mar-a-Lago property manager. Trump’s personal valet, Walt Nauta, abruptly changed his travel plans to fly down to Florida and told De Oliveira to speak with Employee 4. De Oliveira met with Employee 4 and, according to the superseding indictment, told him that their conversation should remain between the two of them. De Oliveira then said that “‘the boss’ wanted the server [storing the footage] deleted.” Employee 4 replied that he did not have the right to do that. De Oliveira repeated that “‘the boss’ wanted the server deleted,” but Employee 4 still refused. There is only one boss at Mar-a-Lago. Later that summer, the FBI seized classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, another anxiety-producing event. Nauta called a club valet, “Trump Employee 5,” to say that “someone just wants to make sure Carlos is good,” and was assured by Employee 5 that Carlos “was loyal.”That same day Trump called De Oliveira and promised to get him an attorney. A differentattorney was retained to represent, at least for some period, both Nauta and Employee No. 4. A Trump PAC paid the legal fees. Usually, defense attorneys in these circumstances are able to share information about developments in the investigation.So, the superseding indictment must have been a shock at Mar-a-Lago. It revealed that Employee No. 4 had been cooperating with Smith’s investigation, added obstruction counts to the ones that Nauta and Trump already faced, named De Oliveira in those counts and in a false statements count, and raised the same anxiety-provoking question, is Carlos still good? Whether Carlos is still good depends on a complex calculation that he and his lawyer must make. Is he better off cooperating, with the possibility of leniency, or taking his chances with Trump in a criminal trial where, if convicted, he faces up to 20 years in prison? Factored in is whether Trump will be elected president next year and, if so, whether he would pardon anyone convicted with him. Other Mar-a-Lago employees, including co-defendant Nauta, are likely doing the same math.

Trump indicted on Jan. 6 charges -Former President Trump was indicted Tuesday by a Washington grand jury on charges stemming from his efforts to remain in power after losing the 2020 election.The 45-page indictment from special counsel Jack Smith puts Trump at the center of a lawless campaign to block the transfer of power, charging him with conspiracy to defraud the U.S. and other crimes.At its core, the Justice Department contends Trump embarked on a campaign of “dishonesty, fraud and conceit” to obstruct a “bedrock function” of a democracy — the counting of votes — generating charges for conspiracy to defraud the U.S.“Despite having lost, the Defendant was determined to remain in power. So for more than two months following election day on November 3, 2020, the Defendant spread lies that there had been outcome-determinative fraud in the election and that he had actually won,” the indictment states.“These claims were false, and the Defendant knew that they were false,” it continues. “But the Defendant repeated and widely disseminated them anyway—to make his knowingly false claims appear legitimate, create an intense national atmosphere of mistrust and anger, and erode public faith in the administration of the election.”That lie was the basis for charges on four counts, alleging Trump was the director of a conspiracy to defraud the U.S. and was also central to a campaign to block the certification of votes on Jan. 6.That campaign spurred charges for obstruction of an official proceeding, the same charge brought against many of those who followed Trump’s Jan. 6 rally call for action and later stormed the Capitol in a deadly rampage.The indictment also says Trump’s violated the rights of millions of Americans to cast a vote for the candidate of their choice, a right enshrined in the Constitution but further protected from “Conspiracy Against Rights.”The indictment indicates that Trump will be charged alongside six co-conspirators who, though unnamed, point to a series of close advisers to the former president.The assertion that Trump knew he lost advances the case beyond was what laid out by the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol — an allegation the panel made but was not fully able to prove.

Jan. 6 indictment: Here are the latest charges facing Trump --Former President Trump was indicted Tuesday, marking the third time this year that he is facing criminal charges even as he pursues another term in the White House.A grand jury in Washington, D.C., handed up an indictment against Trump. In the 45-page document, prosecutors laid out in detail how Trump was determined to remain in power after losing the 2020 election. Here are the four counts Trump faces.

• Conspiracy to defraud the United States. The first count relates broadly to Trump’s efforts to undermine trust in the U.S. elections system by making repeated false claims that the outcome was fraudulent. The indictment alleges that Trump engaged in a “conspiracy to defraud the United States by using dishonesty, fraud, and deceit to impair, obstruct, and defeat the lawful federal government function by which the results of the presidential election are collected, counted and certified by the federal government.” In the opening paragraphs of the indictment, prosecutors allege that Trump “spread lies that there had been outcome-determinative fraud in the election and that he had actually won.” “These claims were false, and the Defendant knew that they were false,” prosecutors wrote. “But the Defendant repeated and widely disseminated them anyway—to make his knowingly false claims appear legitimate, create an intense national atmosphere of mistrust and anger, and erode public faith in the administration of the election.”
• Conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding; Obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding. The second and third counts pertain to Trump’s actions and attempts to obstruct the Jan. 6, 2021, convening of Congress to certify the 2020 election results, according to the indictment. The document alleges Trump perpetrated “a conspiracy to corruptly obstruct and impede the January 6 congressional proceeding at which the collected results of the presidential election are counted and certified.” The indictment quotes extensively from Trump’s rhetoric in the days leading up to Jan. 6. In one instance, it cites a remark Trump made to aides on the eve of the Jan. 6 rally that he expected the crowds that day would be “angry.” It also cites his remarks during a speech near the White House on Jan. 6 in which Trump repeated false claims about the election and led supporters to believe that then-Vice President Mike Pence could overturn the results.
• Conspiracy against rights. The fourth and final count laid out in the indictment refers to the allegation that Trump engaged in a “conspiracy against the right to vote and to have one’s vote counted.” The indictment alleges that Trump “did knowingly combine, conspire, confederate, and agree with co-conspirators, known and unknown to the Grand Jury, to injure, oppress, threaten, and intimidate one or more persons in the free exercise and enjoyment of a right and privilege and secured to them by the Constitution and laws of the United States—that is, the right to vote, and to have one’s vote counted.”

Trump is due to appear in court Thursday in the case.

READ: Trump indictment in 2020 election case A federal grand jury handed up a criminal indictment of former President Trump on Thursday related to his efforts to remain in power after the 2020 election.The 45-page indictment includes four counts: conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights. Read the indictment here: (document is embedded)

Barr calls Trump indictment ‘tip of the iceberg’ in Jack Smith’s case --Former Attorney General Bill Barr called former President Trump’s Jan. 6 indictment the “tip of the iceberg,” arguing that special counsel Jack Smith and the Justice Department (DOJ) have “a lot more” evidence to come on Trump’s state of mind.“The government, in their indictment, takes the position that [Trump] had actual knowledge that he had lost the election and the election wasn’t stolen through fraud,” Barr told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Wednesday night. “And they’re going to have to prove that beyond a reasonable doubt, which is a high bar of course. … Now that leads me to believe that we’re only seeing the tip of the iceberg on this.” When asked if he thinks Smith has more in connection with the indictment, he said he believes DOJ has “a lot more.” “And that’s one of the things that impressed me about the indictment,” he continued. “It was very spare, and there were a lot of things he could have said in there and I think there’s a lot more to come and I think they have a lot more evidence as to President Trump’s state of mind.”

McCarthy accuses DOJ of using Trump indictment to ‘distract’ from Biden probes -Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) accused the Department of Justice (DOJ) of using the latest indictment against former President Trump — which stems from his efforts to remain in power following the 2020 election — to “distract” from recent information GOP-led committees have gathered about President Biden and his son Hunter Biden.In a post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, McCarthy listed several points Republicans have been hammering in their investigations into the Biden family’s business dealings.“And just yesterday a new poll showed President Trump is without a doubt Biden’s leading political opponent,” McCarthy continued. “Everyone in America could see what was going to come next: DOJ’s attempt to distract from the news and attack the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, President Trump.”While pointing the finger at the DOJ and Biden, McCarthy did not engage with any specific allegations in the Trump indictment, a tactic that has become typical for the Speaker in recent weeks when speaking to the press about charges against Trump.The office of special counsel Jack Smith indicted Trump on four charges Tuesday: conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding and conspiracy against rights.The charges drew immediate criticism and accusations against the DOJ from Trump allies that echoed McCarthy’s.The Speaker, and other Republicans, pointed to former Hunter Biden business associate Devon Archer saying in closed-door testimony to the House Oversight Committee on Monday that Hunter Biden had put his dad on the phone with people he was meeting with, which at times included business partners, at least 20 times over a decade, according to lawmakers in both parties.A Democratic lawmaker said that the conversations did not involve business discussions and were limited to pleasantries, but Republicans said the testimony conflicted with Biden claiming during the 2020 presidential campaign that he had never spoken to his son about his business dealings. McCarthy also pointed to President Biden previously saying that his son Hunter Biden did not make money from China, even though GOP investigations — along with Hunter Biden himself in court — said he did make money from Chinese sources.And finally, McCarthy pointed to a plea deal that Hunter Biden struck with federal prosecutors on tax charges that would have granted him broad immunity from prosecution, which fell apart in court after a judge questioned its constitutionality and lack of legal precedent.The indictment against the former president cites a phone call between Trump and McCarthy — then the minority leader — during which Trump “told the Minority Leader that the crowd at the Capitol was more upset about the election than the Minority Leader was.” Left unmentioned in the document is that McCarthy had reportedly yelled expletives back at Trump, saying that the rioters were trying to kill him.But the indictment does not identify the call as an act “to effect the object of conspiracy,” as it does other statements from Trump on the day of Jan. 6 and leading up to it.McCarthy’s reaction following Tuesday’s indictment is a stark contrast from remarks he made days after the attack, when he said the president bore responsibility for the actions that day.

Larry Kudlow: Trump indictment is a distraction from the Biden crime family - Former President Donald Trump went to the courthouse today in Washington, D.C., but I think the wrong man is being arraigned. Sorry to give offense to those who may virulently disagree. As always, I respect your views, but, in my book, the Trump indictment by the Joe Biden-Merrick Garland-Jack Smith Justice Department is a complete travesty. Totally political. Completely weaponized. Biden would love to see Trump in jail so he doesn't have to run against him. They couldn't bring an insurrection charge, so instead they settled for an illegal gobbledygook of obstruction and conspiracy. What did Trump do that was so awful? He used his First Amendment freedoms to declare that he believes he won the 2020 election. Folks out there may agree with him or disagree with him. He may be right or wrong, but in this great country of ours, if you say something and you're wrong, you don't get prosecuted or go to jail. In other words, like the rest of us, the former president has a First Amendment free-speech right to be wrong and, by the way, there's quite a few other less distinguished political leaders who have disputed elections – without being busted by the cops. Take a listen:

Republican senator who voted to impeach Trump speaks out on his third indictment - Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski was the first Republican lawmaker who had voted to convict former President Donald Trump to publicly speak out about his third indictment as of Wednesday morning.Murkowski, in a series of social media posts shortly after the indictment was handed down Tuesday evening, defended her decision to vote to convict Trump in a February 2021 Senate trial — following his second impeachment by the House — for inciting the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection, saying that she voted based on “clear evidence that he attempted to overturn the 2020 election after losing it.” “Additional evidence presented since then, including by the January 6 Commission, has only reinforced that the former President played a key role in instigating the riots, resulting in physical violence and desecration of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021,” she said.Trump was indicted for a third time on Tuesday when federal prosecutors charged him with conspiring to seize a second term after losing the 2020 election. Murkowski added that Trump “is innocent until proven guilty and will have his day in court,” and encouraged people to read the indictment “to understand the very serious allegations being made in this case.”The Alaska Republican, who won reelection last year, was one of seven senators in her party who voted to convict Trump in 2021, joining all 50 Democrats.Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah did not give the same full-throated reaction as Murkowski, but provided a statement to the Washington Examiner on Tuesday evening: “My views on the former president’s actions surrounding January 6th are well known. As with all criminal defendants, he is entitled to due process and the presumption of innocence.”Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who voted to convict and are still in office, did not immediately respond to requests for comment about the indictment.Others who voted to convict but aren’t in office, including Richard Burr of North Carolina, Ben Sasse of Nebraska and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, also have not publicly commented.

Gravity of new Trump charges scrambles GOP politics - The indictment brought against former President Trump for trying to halt the transfer of presidential power in 2021 has been met with somber silence from many Republican senators, who view the new charges as more serious than the previous felony counts faced by Trump. The four new charges unveiled by special counsel Jack Smith on Tuesday focus on Trump’s actions in the lead-up to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, which prompted seven Senate Republicans to vote in February 2021 to convict him on the impeachment charge of inciting an insurrection. Senate Republican aides and strategists say the gravity of the new charges is underscored by the blistering speech Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) delivered at the end of Trump’s impeachment trial, in which he called Trump “practically and morally responsible” for the chaos of that day and suggested he could face criminal prosecution. Conservative legal experts are raising concerns about the free speech implications of charging Trump for claiming repeatedly over the course of weeks that the election was marred by fraud and for revving up a large crowd of supporters that then marched on the Capitol. But Republican strategists say the latest indictment could have the biggest impact on Trump’s candidacy for president because the American public is well aware of the chaos and violence of Jan. 6. “It’s politically more salient because of Jan. 6. The whole country knows what happens on Jan. 6. Most of the country watched it unfold on television. Whereas the Mar-a-Lago [documents case], while it may be very serious, it’s not something the average person pays a lot of attention to,”

Democratic Rep. doesn’t think Jan. 6 committee was aware of notes Mike Pence took on day of riot - U.S. House Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) said on Thursday she doesn’t think the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack was aware of notes taken by former Vice President Mike Pence during meetings with Donald Trump when he was making false claims of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election.Special Counsel Jack Smith’s Tuesday indictment of the former president in a case surrounding efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election revealed the existence of the notes. Trump now faces four counts due to his actions attempting to prevent Joe Biden from taking the presidency, including a pressure campaign to have Pence stop the certification of the election.. “Well, I did not know about those notes and I don’t think any of the investigators or other members knew,” Lofgren said on Alex Wagner Tonight on MSNBC. “We talked to his counsel, we talked to his chief of staff. We didn’t get that information.” Pence, who is running against his former running mate in the 2024 GOP primaries, made a strong condemnation of Trump in the wake of the indictment Tuesday. Trump put himself “over the Constitution” and therefore he should not be allowed to hold the office of the Presidency, he said in a statement. “Today’s indictment serves as an important reminder: anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be President of the United States,” Pence said.

How much prison time could Trump get? It's complicated. - Donald Trump now faces 78 felony charges across three criminal cases — many of them carrying the potential for hefty prison time.If Trump were convicted on all counts and given the maximum statutory penalty for each one, he would face a whopping 641 years in prison. And that’s not counting additional criminal charges he may face in Georgia, where the district attorney in Fulton County may be on the verge of indicting him this month.But the reality of any prison term that Trump could plausibly receive is far more complicated. In both state and federal courts, judges have wide latitude in sentencing. None of the crimes Trump has been charged with carry a mandatory minimum sentence, and defendants with no prior criminal record — a status that, at least for now, applies to Trump — rarely receive the maximum. And if the 77-year-old former president were convicted of multiple counts within the same case, any sentences for those counts might run simultaneously, rather than being stacked on top of each other.More broadly, sending Trump to prison could raise unprecedented practical and legal issues that would be on any judge’s mind. For one thing, there is the extraordinary logistical challenge of jailing a former president who is entitled to around-the-clock Secret Service protection. For another, there is the potential constitutional crisis that could ensue if Trump were reelected to the White House in 2024 and then ordered by a judge to serve out a prison term.Those concerns aside, some of the felonies Trump is accused of — particularly in the two federal cases brought by special counsel Jack Smith — routinely entail significant sentences. Legal experts anticipate that Smith’s team, if they obtain convictions against Trump, will seek substantial prison time in both cases they have brought, one involving his retention of classified documents and the other involving his bid to overturn the 2020 election.Trump himself has even touted the threat of a significant prison sentence in recent fundraising emails, with his campaign and a PAC saying in late July, “While my primary opponents continue to take cheap swipes at me as the Department of Justice plots ways to throw me in JAIL for up to 561 YEARS, I am asking YOU to stand with me at this pivotal moment in the election.”The charges that might carry the most severe penalties for Trump involve obstruction of justice. In both federal cases, Smith has accused him of violating various provisions of the federal statutes that prohibit obstructing official proceedings or obstructing investigations. All of the obstruction charges — which include allegedly impeding the government’s attempts to retrieve the classified documents and disrupting the Jan. 6, 2021, session of Congress — have a 20-year maximum sentence.While Trump’s lack of a criminal record could weigh in favor of a sentence much lower than that, prosecutors might argue that so-called aggravating factors — like Trump’s alleged efforts, in both cases, to pressure others to commit crimes — support a stiffer term.

Trump pleads not guilty to charges that he conspired to overturn 2020 election - Former President Donald Trump pleaded not guilty Thursday to federal charges accusing him of orchestrating a criminal conspiracy to try to derail the transfer of power after the 2020 election.With hundreds of eyes fixed on him — including from several federal judges who lined the back of the wood-paneled courtroom — Trump stood and declared himself “not guilty” of the sweeping four-count case prosecutors have leveled against him.During the tense, 27-minute proceeding, Trump was seated just 20 feet from special counsel Jack Smith, the man attempting to convict him in two federal prosecutions that could result in lengthy prison sentences. For a moment as they awaited the start of the arraignment, the two appeared to make eye contact.Though much of the proceeding was carefully scripted and choreographed, a significant point of tension immediately emerged: How soon will Trump stand trial?Thomas Windom, the prosecutor helming the trial team for Smith, said the case should move quickly.“This case will benefit from normal order, including a speedy trial,” Windom told the magistrate judge overseeing the arraignment.But John Lauro, an attorney for the former president, said Trump’s legal team might need a long time to go through the evidence that prosecutors are required to hand over to the defense.“These are weighty issues,” he said, adding that the Justice Department has had years to investigate the case. “All I’m going to ask, Your Honor, is the opportunity to fairly defend our client. But in order to do that, we’re going to need a little time.”Magistrate Judge Moxila Upadhyaya replied: “I can guarantee everybody that there will be a fair process and a fair trial in this case.”Trump faces four felony charges stemming from his months long bid to seize a second term despite losing the 2020 election to President Joe Biden. The charges, brought by the special counsel and approved by a federal grand jury earlier this week, accuse Trump of a wide-ranging plot to spread disinformation about the the election, pressure state officials to undo the results in states that Biden won, undermine the Electoral College and ultimately try to disrupt Congress’ certification of the results on Jan. 6, 2021.

Watch: Trump's full statement after pleading not guilty – POLITICO (video)

Judge warns Trump against bribing or influencing witnesses -- The magistrate judge handling former President Trump’s arraignment on charges related to trying to overturn the 2020 election warned him Thursday against bribing or influencing witnesses. U.S. Magistrate Judge Moxila Upadhyaya reminded Trump during the arraignment proceedings that bribing, influencing or retaliating against witnesses is a crime. While Upadhyaya will oversee Trump’s arraignment, she will not oversee the trial. The case has been assigned to U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan, an Obama appointee who has handed down strong sentences to Jan. 6 defendants. The warning to Trump is notable given the House committee that investigated the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol alleged the former president and his allies tried to contact and influence a witness in that probe. Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) said at a hearing last summer that Trump tried to call an unnamed witness. She separately described a case of a witness describing receiving phone calls reminding them that Trump was paying attention to who said what. Transcripts released last December detailed how Cassidy Hutchinson, a former White House aide, dealt with efforts by what she referred to as “Trump World” to diminish the impact of her testimony and withhold information from investigators.

Republican group rips Trump in Fox News ad campaign: ‘He’ll do it again’ -- An anti-Trump Republican group is set to run a advertisement featuring clips of the Jan. 6 insurrection on Fox News in the coming week.The group, the Republican Accountability Project, said in a press release obtained by The Hill that it is going to air the ad in multiple states including Arizona and Wisconsin as well as on Fox News nationally “over the next week.” The ad features scenes from the riot with overlaid text attacking former President Trump for his actions and words during the event.“Trump told them to fight,” according to the ad. “He’ll do it again. Unless he faces consequences.” Special counsel Jack Smith announced a Trump indictment in an investigation into efforts to overturn the 2020 election Tuesday. The former president was arraigned for the indictmentThursday. He now faces four new counts, including conspiracy to defraud the United States.The group’s previous ad campaigns include calling out the former president for his attacks on Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) and shaming Republican lawmakers for backing away from blaming Trump for the events of Jan. 6, 2021.

Trump calls on Supreme Court to ‘intercede’ in legal fights -Former President Trump is calling on the Supreme Court to intercede in the legal battles he is facing after he pleaded not guilty federal to charges related to special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot and efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Trump, in a post on Truth Social early Friday, repeated accusations that President Biden is pushing for the cases against him for political purposes. Trump also said the multiple cases against him will require “massive amounts” of time and money and force him to use resources on court battles that could have been used for advertisements and rallies. “I am leading in all Polls, including against Crooked Joe, but this is not a level playing field. It is Election Interference, & the Supreme Court must intercede. MAGA!” Trump said. The former president appeared in a Washington, D.C., courtroom Thursday for his arraignment to enter his not guilty plea to the four charges he is facing in the Jan. 6 case. He has been charged with conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and attempting to obstruct an official proceeding and conspiracy against rights. The indictment is the third filed against Trump in the past few months, with the former president already facing charges related to hush-money payments made to porn actress Stormy Daniels and his keeping of classified and sensitive documents at his Mar-a-Lago property in Florida after his presidency ended. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all charges and maintained that he is being prosecuted for political purposes because of position as the front-runner for the GOP nomination for president in 2024.

Feds alert judge to Trump’s ‘If you go after me, I’m coming after you!’ post - Prosecutors on Friday night called a judge’s attention to a social media post from Donald Trump — issued hours earlier — in which they say the former president appeared to declare that he’s “coming after” those he sees as responsible for the series of formidable legal challenges he is facing.Attorneys from special counsel Jack Smith’s team said the post from Trump “specifically or by implication” referenced those involved in his criminal case for seeking to subvert the 2020 election. In a court filing just before 10 p.m. Friday, Senior Assistant Special Counsels Molly Gaston and Thomas Windom alerted the judge in Trump’s latest criminal case — U.S. District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan — to a combative post Trump sent earlier in the day.“If you go after me, I’m coming after you!” Trump wrote in all caps Friday afternoon on Truth Social, which is run by a media company he co-owns.The prosecutors said Trump’s post raised concerns that he might improperly share evidence in the case on his social media account and they urged that he be ordered to keep any evidence prosecutors turn over to his defense team from public view.“All the proposed order seeks to prevent is the improper dissemination or use of discovery materials, including to the public,” Gaston and Windom wrote. “Such a restriction is particularly important in this case because the defendant has previously issued public statements on social media regarding witnesses, judges, attorneys, and others associated with legal matters pending against him. … And in recent days, regarding this case, the defendant has issued multiple posts—either specifically or by implication—including the following, which the defendant posted just hours ago.”of political speech, and was in response to the RINO, China-loving, dishonest special interest groups and Super PACs, like the ones funded by the Koch brothers and the Club for No Growth,” a Trump spokesperson said in a statement.

DOJ prosecutors request protective order after Trump arraignment, citing social media threats - Justice Department Special counsel Jack Smith appealed to the federal judge overseeing former President Trump’s election fraud case Friday evening to issue a protective order for evidence, citing social media threats.“IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU!” the former president posted earlier on Truth Social — a move which has already drawn criticism with a former spokesperson for Trump calling it “chilling” and “witness intimidation.”Smith argued that Trump’s case needs a strict order preventing Trump from mentioning details from discovery documents and evidence in public.“Such a restriction is particularly important in this case because the defendant has previously issued public statements on social media regarding witnesses, judges, attorneys, and others associated with legal matters pending against him,” Smith wrote in the filing.“If the defendant were to begin issuing public posts using details — or, for example, grand jury transcripts — obtained in discovery here, it could have a harmful chilling effect on witnesses or adversely affect the fair administration of justice in this case,” he added.Prosecutors claimed the attempts to reach an agreement on a protective order with Trump’s legal team have been fruitless, and have prevented the prosecution from supplying documents to the defense as quickly as they would like.“The government seeks to provide the defendant with discovery as soon as possible, including certain discovery to which the defendant is not entitled at this stage of the proceedings,” Smith wrote.The prosecution proposed two different protective order drafts to Trump’s legal team, both of which they did not agree to, Smith claimed. Trump’s legal team also proposed their version, which the special counsel called inadequate.The Trump campaign has denied that the Truth Social post was a threat to witnesses in his criminal trials.“The Truth post cited is the definition of political speech, and was in response to the RINO, China-loving, dishonest special interest groups and Super PACs, like the ones funded by the Koch brothers and the Club for No Growth,” a campaign spokesperson said.In a media appearance Thursday, Trump attorney John Lauro criticized Smith’s team for pushing the case forward too quickly.“This is a fast-moving railroad without any concern for justice,” he said.

How Trump’s Indictment Reverses a 50-Year Precedent — Former President Donald Trump pleaded not guilty to charges that he conspired to subvert the 2020 presidential election. Thursday’s arraignment was not Trump’s first courtroom rodeo; this year already he has been federally charged for his alleged mishandling of classified documents and charged in New York for his role in a hush-money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential campaign. (Trump pleaded not guilty to all charges in those cases as well.) The fact that Trump has been indicted again should not diminish the historic significance of this moment. Of all the indictments thus far, this is clearly the most consequential, with Trump facing four counts, including conspiring to defraud the government, to obstruct an official proceeding and to violate the most essential part of our democracy — the right of voters to choose their president. By refusing to accept the results of an election that was proven to be legitimate and actively trying to overturn the results, Trump put our democracy in grave danger. By seeking this indictment, as well as the one involving Trump’s handling of classified documents, the Department of Justice has broken with the precedent established by former President Gerald Ford when he preemptively pardoned former President Richard Nixon on September 8, 1974, for any crimes that he might have committed in Watergate. While Congress demanded accountability through the impeachment process, pressuring Nixon to resign, Ford passed on the opportunity to insist that no person — not even the former president — is above the law. Ford issued the pardon in an effort to heal the nation from the trauma of Watergate. A lengthy legal trial would have dragged voters through all the ugliness of the scandal, and while accountability mattered, moving on was more important — or so Ford believed. His decision proved to be much more controversial than he suspected. Many Americans were outraged that Ford had allowed Nixon to get off scot-free. Protests broke out all over the country, and Ford was continually greeted with hostile placards and chants, as his approval ratings plummeted. If he hoped that the country would become less polarized, he was wrong — the opposite ended up happening, with the fault lines dividing red and blue only becoming supercharged in the ensuing decades. Ford’s pardon – whether he intended to or not — sent a strong message that there were in fact limits to how far the federal government was willing to go to take action against a former president. The result was significant. Despite a series of congressional reforms aimed at restraining executive power in the first half of the 1970s, such as the War Powers Resolution of 1973 and the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974, American politics ended up moving in the opposite direction, with presidents becoming increasingly powerful.As Garrett Graff wrote in a New York Times op-ed, “the precedent Ford set seems to have paralyzed a half-century of prosecutors. That precedent and the Justice Department policy have left the United States with what seems an untenable situation — presidents are immune from prosecution in office and politically untouchable after leaving office.” While the bar must remain extraordinarily high for any administration to take legal action against a former president, it is a necessary response in the case of Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election. When the alleged crimes are so egregious that they threaten the stability of our democracy, accountability is vital.

Two Sets of Laws for Two Americas --Two sets of laws now operate in an increasingly unrecognizable America. Consider the matter of unlawfully removing and storing classified papers. Donald Trump may go to prison for removing contested White House files to his home. So far, Joe Biden seems exempt from just such legal jeopardy. But as a senator and vice president with no right, as does a president, to declassify files, Biden removed and, as a private citizen, kept for years classified files in unsecured locations. Biden's team strangely revealed the unlawful removals after years of silence. It did so because the Biden administration found itself in the untenable position of prosecuting the former president for "crimes" that the current president committed as well -- albeit far earlier and longer. Impeachable phone calls? Donald Trump was impeached by a Democratic House for delaying foreign aid until the Ukrainian government guaranteed that Hunter Biden and his family were no longer engaged in corrupt influence peddling in Kyiv. In addition, the Left charged that Trump was targeting Joe Biden, his possible 2020 rival. Yet Biden, with impunity, bragged that he had fired a Ukrainian prosecutor looking into his own son's schemes by promising to cancel outright American foreign aid. And the Biden administration's Justice Department is now targeting Trump, currently the front-running challenger to Biden in 2024. Election denialism? Trump was indicted by Special Counsel Jack Smith, in part for supposedly conspiratorially "unlawfully discounting legitimate votes." Will Smith then also indict Stacey Abrams? For years Abrams falsely claimed that she was the real governor of Georgia. She toured the country in hopes of "discounting" the state vote count. Or maybe Smith was referring to the conspiracist and former president Jimmy Carter. He alleged that Trump in 2016 "lost the election, and he was put into office because the Russians interfered on his behalf." Will Smith charge Hillary Clinton? She serially libeled Trump as an "illegitimate" president. Clinton hatched the Russian collusion hoax, and bragged she joined the "Resistance" to continue her attacks on an elected president. Or maybe Smith meant the Hollywood crowd. Lots of actors cut commercials after the 2016 election -- begging viewers to pressure the electors to ignore their constitutional duties to honor their states' popular vote and instead swing their ballots to Hillary Clinton? Was not that "insurrectionary?" Or was Smith thinking of January 2005? Then 32 Democratic House members and Sen. Barbara Boxer tried to nullify the legally certified vote in Ohio -- to thereby elect the loser John Kerry. How about destroying evidence? Trump was also indicted for allegedly attempting to erase video material from his own security cameras in his own house. Yet Hillary Clinton with impunity eliminated subpoenaed communication devices and thousands of emails. Violations of security? Trump was indicted for supposedly loosely talking about classified material to visitors at his home. So, will prosecutor Smith's indictments also extend to Hillary Clinton? She sent classified documents illegally over her unsecured private server. FBI Director James Comey memorialized a confidential president conversation. Then he deliberately leaked what properly was a classified document to the media. It was all part of Comey's Machiavellian gambit to prompt the appointment of a favorable special prosecutor. What about subversion of the electoral process? Donald Trump was indicted for supposedly undermining the election of 2020 by questioning the integrity of the balloting. In 2016, Hillary Clinton's campaign illegally hired two foreign nationals Christopher Steele and Igor Danchenko to compile falsehoods about her opponent Trump. Clinton hid her payments behind three paywalls. Her team, along with the FBI, helped leak the counterfeit dossier to the media and high officials to undermine her opponent -- and thus subvert the election itself. Lying and perjury? Two Trump aides and Trump himself are indicted for supposedly stonewalling federal investigators by claiming either amnesia or ignorance. That tact is exactly what James Comey did 245 times while under oath before Congress. What do former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, former Director of the CIA John Brennan, and former interim FBI Director Andrew McCabe all have in common? All three admitted they flagrantly lied either under oath to Congress or to federal investigators. The three were never indicted for their false and perjurious testimonies. We have now serially devolved from the 2016 election "Russian collusion" hoax, to the 2020 election "Russian disinformation" laptop hoax, and down to the 2024 election weaponized indictments. Out of pathological hatred or fear of Donald Trump, the Left has crafted one set of laws for themselves, and another for all other Americans. They smugly believe their own moral superiority grants them such a right to apply laws unequally -- or to ignore them altogether. To retain power at all cost, and to destroy a political rival, left-wing Democrats are systematically dismantling the constitutional foundations of the United States as we once knew them.

RFK Jr.-aligned super PAC raked in $6 million in July - A super PAC supporting the presidential ambitions of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. raised $6.47 million in July from a mix of major donors from both parties, according to a press release from American Values 2024 on Monday. About $5 million of that haul came during his testimony in front of the House Judiciary Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government.American Values 2024 boasts the support of former Donald Trump megadonor Tim Mellon, Democratic Party donor Abby Rockefeller, and Gavin de Becker, a security consultant and author close to Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, according to the press release.“The fact that Kennedy gets so much bipartisan support tells me two things: that he’s the one candidate who can unite the country and root out corruption and that he’s the one Democrat who can win in the general election,” Tim Mellon said in the press release.The haul by the super PAC underscores the intense, albeit limited, support that Kennedy has received in his long-shot run against Joe Biden. The president still has majority support in polling, but Kennedy has notched 16 percent support in the most recent poll of the 2024 Democratic primary field conducted by Harvard-Harris, and he hit a polling high of 21 percent in an Emerson College survey this April. But other surveys have shown him trailing by more.Donors see Kennedy’s advantage in his bipartisan appeal, a spokesperson for the PAC told POLITICO, citing the first-time candidate’s high favorability in the Harvard-Harris survey.“This is the reason why he’s the logical best person to be the nominee: because he takes votes away from Trump,” said the spokesperson, who was granted anonymity to provide more context on the financial filings. “He isn’t viewed as a partisan hack. He’s viewed as a truth teller.”

Cornel West bid prompts worries from progressives: ‘I just wish he wasn’t doing it’ Progressive lawmakers are voicing concerns over Cornel West’s third-party bid, worried that a figure they respect could cripple President Biden’s prospects in 2024. West launched a Green Party campaign earlier this year to inject more leftism into the election cycle. He’s challenging both the Democratic and Republican establishments, raging against them in equal measure and raising the stakes of being a spoiler in the fall. Now, with the Republican nomination of former President Trump seeming more and more plausible, progressives are becoming more outspoken about their worries. “I think he has a very long record of service and academic thought leadership,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) told The Hill last week. “I think just right now, given the Electoral College, it’s very difficult to square the very real threat of a Republican presidency … [with] the risk of giving up the very small margin of electoral votes needed to ensure that President Biden wins.” Until recently, lawmakers on the left didn’t feel much need to voice any reservations they had about West. When he first announced he was running for president in early June, he did so under the grassroots People’s Party, without much fanfare. Democrats weren’t really applauding him but weren’t criticizing his bid, either; there seemed little cause for concern on Capitol Hill. The shift happened after West changed his affiliation to the Green Party just a few weeks later. The move promoted bad recollections for Democrats of 2016, when third-party nominee Jill Stein captured enough votes that election analysts said helped contribute to Trump’s edge in certain states. The difference now is that West, unlike Stein, is a revered part of the progressive movement who has garnered goodwill from sitting members of Congress for his activism on behalf of working-class people. “I care about the quality of your life. I care about whether you have access to a job with a living wage, decent housing, women having control over their bodies, health care for all, de-escalating the destruction of the planet,” West said in his launch video this summer. Some liberal lawmakers also personally know and like him, having crossed paths with him over the years. He worked as one of Sen. Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) top surrogates in 2020. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who served as a campaign co-chairman for Sanders, has expressed kind sentiments about him despite publicly supporting Biden this cycle.

Former FBI Agent Prepared to Testify that JPMorgan Had Jeffrey Epstein Account for 28 Years – Not 15 Years – and “Impeded” Criminal Investigation of Epstein By Pam and Russ Martens: On July 24th and 25^th, the Attorney General’s Office for the U.S. Virgin Islands filed dozens of documents in the court case it has launched against the largest federally-insured bank in the United States – JPMorgan Chase – in a U.S. district court in Manhattan. A quick glance at the giant blur of filings indicated that the vast majority had been filed under seal. (See a partial screen shot here.) The U.S. Virgin Islands is credibly alleging in its lawsuit that JPMorgan Chase “actively participated in Epstein’s sex trafficking venture” where dozens of underage girls were sexually assaulted by Epstein or his rich pals. We have learned over the years to deeply scrutinize anything that is happening in the federal district court in the Southern District of New York, where Wall Street has kept critical information about its serial crimes against the American people hidden behind a dark curtain of protective orders, sealed documents, and non-transcribed conferences with the judge – exactly what is happening in this case.As we scrutinized the dozens of sealed documents entered on July 24th and 25th, we noticed that a few here and there were not sealed. We opened those documents and were stunned to see that one was an expert report written by a former FBI agent of 23 years, Shaun O’Neill, who had made a finding that JPMorgan Chase had “impeded” the federal criminal investigation of Epstein. Ostensibly, this expert report is going to be entered into evidence in the jury trial currently scheduled in the matter for October 23.The document had a heading at the top of each page that read: “Highly Confidential – Subject to Protective Order.” However, the notation on the docket was that it was now being presented as a “redacted” document. We called the court deputy to be certain that the media was allowed to quote from the unredacted parts of the document. We were assured that we could.A major revelation in the document is that former FBI agent O’Neill had been allowed to read the deposition given in the case by William Langford, an anti-money-laundering (AML) executive at JPMorgan Chase who had previously worked for the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) – the very agency where Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) are supposed to be filed by banks like JPMorgan Chase when they handle massive cash withdrawals for people like Jeffrey Epstein.According to O’Neill, Langford indicates in his deposition that Epstein became a JPMorgan client in 1985, not in 1998, the date that most major news media has heretofore reported and JPMorgan has not publicly corrected.Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, testified in his deposition that Epstein “was no longer a client after 2013….” That assertion now looks increasingly suspect. An Epstein financial statement from J.P. Morgan Securities, the brokerage and trading division of JPMorgan Chase, dated March 31, 2014, shows Epstein sold over $667,000 in securities at the firm in 2014. That statement has been entered on the docket as an exhibit.In addition, on Monday of this week, Linda Singer, a lawyer at law firm MotleyRice, which is representing the U.S. Virgin Islands, revealed in a letter to the presiding judge, Jed Rakoff, that “JPMorgan handled more than $1.1 million in payments from Epstein to girls or women—many with Eastern European surnames—after Epstein was terminated by JPMorgan, including over $320,000 in payments to numerous individuals for whom JPMorgan had not previously identified payments.”Not to put too fine a point on it, but the bank could not have made payments from Epstein to anyone, unless he still had an account with money in it at some part of the bank. And, if Epstein had an account at any part of the bank, he was still a customer. He might have been flagged as a high-risk customer; he might have had his trading or transactions restricted; but he was still a customer.

Founder of bankrupt crypto lender Celsius must face New York fraud lawsuit (Reuters) - Alex Mashinsky, the founder and former chief of the now-bankrupt cryptocurrency lender Celsius Network, must face a lawsuit by New York Attorney General Letitia James accusing him of civil fraud, a Manhattan state court judge ruled on Friday. Justice Margaret Chan said the attorney general sufficiently alleged that Mashinsky defrauded investors by touting Celsius as a safe alternative to banks and concealing its risks, including hundreds of millions of dollars of investment losses. Chan also said James could pursue some claims under the Martin Act, a powerful state securities law, and that the "earned interest accounts" that Celsius offered customers qualified as securities under state law. The attorney general's lawsuit "supports a reasonable inference that the harm suffered by investors flowed, at least in part, from Mashinsky's alleged misrepresentations made in New York concerning Celsius' overall financial health and investment safety," Chan wrote in a 25-page decision. Mashinsky has separately pleaded not guilty to criminal fraud charges brought by the U.S. Department of Justice tied to Celsius' demise. He also faces related civil lawsuits by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and U.S. Federal Trade Commission. Lawyers for Mashinsky in the New York civil case did not immediately respond to requests for comment. James, in a statement, said the decision "should serve as another reminder to crypto companies that we will use the full extent of the law against those who defraud investors." Cryptocurrency lenders such as Hoboken, New Jersey-based Celsius grew rapidly as digital asset prices surged higher during the COVID-19 pandemic. The lenders promised easy loan access and high interest rates to depositors, and lent tokens to institutional investors, hoping to profit from the difference. Celsius was founded in 2017 and had offered 17% interest on some deposits, but had a $1.19 billion balance sheet deficit when it sought Chapter 11 protection in July 2022, according to regulators and court filings. The bankruptcy came one month after Celsius froze withdrawals and transfers for its 1.7 million customers, citing what it called "extreme" market conditions. The case is New York v. Mashinsky, New York State Supreme Court, New York County, No. 450040/2023.

John Jay Ray sues FTX inner circle for $1 billion, prosecutors want Sam Bankman-Fried’s bail revoked – John Jay Ray III, the CEO of FTX in bankruptcy, and his team have spent several months sifting through the smoldering wreckage of FTX for whatever paperwork and money trails they can find. Their aim is to get as much back for creditors as possible.Last month, Ray released the second interim report and filed lawsuits against FTX counsel Daniel Friedberg and venture capital firm K5 Capital. He has filed a pile more actions to reverse transfers.Ray is suing the old FTX inner circle — Sam Bankman-Fried, Caroline Ellison, Gary Wang, and Nishad Singh — to claw back $1 billion in misappropriated funds. The complaint was filed on July 20. [Doc 1186, PDF]The normal clawback period for bankruptcies is 90 days, or one year for corporate insiders — but for fraudulent transfers, the lookback period is up to two years. These avoidance claims stretch all the way back to February 2020 because Ray alleges the transfers were crimes — the FTX inner circle was treating FTX and Alameda as their personal piggy bank. [Section 548, Bankruptcy Code]Much of the complaint rests on crimes that Ellison, Wang, and Singh have already pleaded guilty to.Ray is asking for an order finding that these transfers were fraudulent, the return of the transferred money or property, damages, and attorney fees. He is also asking that any bankruptcy claims made by the FTX inner circle are subordinated to the claims of innocent creditors.The report is 84 pages. The first 18 pages set the scene, recapping stuff you’ll already know if you’ve been following the FTX saga. The fun starts on page 19, detailing the specific malfeasance. Pages 35 to 82 detail the forty-eight specific causes of action in law.The inner circle made over $100 million in political donations. The money was typically funneled from Alameda as “loans” before being donated personally:

• Singh donated $500,000 to the People for Progressive Governance PAC — run by Michael Sadowsky, who also ran SBF’s Protect Our Future PAC.
• SBF put $35 million into Guarding Against Pandemics, run by his brother Gabriel. GAP “frequently funded pet projects of the Bankman-Fried brothers that, needless to say, did nothing to prevent pandemics.”

As we now know, FTX insiders donated to both Democrats and Republicans who they thought would put pro-crypto legislation into place. SBF also spent $11 million trying and failing to parachute Carrick Flynn, his fellow Effective Altruist, into a Democratic primary in Oregon. [OPB, 2022; MarketWatch, 2022]

FTX's Bankman-Fried, seeking to avoid jail, denies witness tampering (Reuters) - Sam Bankman-Fried, the indicted founder of the bankrupt FTX cryptocurrency exchange, on Tuesday said he never sought tointimidate witnesses at his scheduled October fraud trial, and there is no reason to jail him.In a letter to U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan in Manhattan, Bankman-Fried said prosecutors mischaracterized his intentions in giving a New York Times reporter the writings of former romantic partner Caroline Ellison, who is expected to testify against him. "Mr. Bankman-Fried's contact with the New York Times reporter was not an attempt to intimidate Ms. Ellison or taint the jury pool," his lawyer, Mark Cohen, wrote in the letter. "It was a proper exercise of his rights to make fair comment on an article already in progress." Bankman-Fried, 31, has pleaded not guilty to stealing billions of dollars in FTX customer funds to plug losses at his hedge fund Alameda Research, where Ellison was chief executive. He has been largely confined to his parents' Palo Alto, California home on $250 million bond since his December 2022 arrest. Ellison is one of three former members of Bankman-Fried's inner circle who pleaded guilty to fraud charges and agreed to cooperate with the U.S. Attorney's office in Manhattan. Kaplan barred Bankman-Fried from speaking about the case and asked both sides to submit written arguments about possible jail. In an affidavit submitted by the defense, Laurence Tribe, a Harvard University constitutional law professor, said Bankman-Fried had a right to "avoid projecting a false image of someone who is media-shy or, worse, someone whose consciousness of guilt makes him shun the media." Bankman-Fried's lawyers also argued that restricted internet access at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, where he would be held, would leave him unable to prepare for trial.

Crypto.com was among dozens of potential suitors for FTX Europe. But the bankruptcy estate isn’t selling it -In mid-July, the FTX bankruptcy estate launched a $320 million lawsuit against the executives of subsidiary FTX Europe. Led by former Enron steward John Ray III, the debtor’s estate has been on a crusade to claw back funds for the failed crypto exchange, and FTX Europe was its latest target among a parade of other recipients of FTX capital, from politicians to hedge funds. In the lawsuit, Ray’s team alleges that the initial acquisition of the entity that became FTX Europe was a disastrous business decision stemming from its executives’ personal ties to FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, as well as their false claims of regulatory connections that could catalyze overseas business.Documents and interviews with insiders paint a different picture. FTX Europe provided one of the exchange’s core services—perpetual futures trading—to the European market and continued to add tens of thousands of users before the empire collapsed. Despite the failure of its parent company, FTX Europe has drawn acquisition interest from buyers in recent months, including Crypto.com, the company behind the infamous Matt Damon Super Bowl ad.But FTX, which owes more than $3 billion to an estimated 1 million creditors, doesn’t appear interested in off-loading or relaunching FTX Europe, instead intending to remove it from the Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, likely for liquidation. According to bankruptcy experts, the case illustrates the complexity of the bankruptcy—and the Ray team’s desire to signal a new era for the embattled firm. Before its acquisition, FTX Europe was a Swiss company called Digital Assets DA AG. Founded in 2020, the firm’s main offering was a white-label service for exchanges to offer tokenized stocks, a popular feature across different crypto exchanges that allowed users to trade shares at any hour. DAAG was also working with Solana—where it was already live—and Ethereum to develop a tokenized version of stocks that could be traded like crypto tokens, according to a person familiar with the business.DAAG provided the tokenized stock service to FTX along with Binance and Bittrex, and was in the process of onboarding with Kraken, according to two people familiar with the firm. Through the acquisition of a Cypriot company, DAAG was also poised to secure a key operating license that would allow it to offer perpetual futures contracts across Europe, a product that allows for high-leverage crypto trades. Perps, as they’re known, already were one of FTX’s most popular products. Bankman-Fried, according to two people familiar with the matter, pursued the acquisition of DAAG to expand perps to Europe and shut out competitors. DAAG had healthy profits when FTX bought it in November 2021, with an Ebit of around $7.3 million in the period of July 2020 to December 2021, according to a financial statement viewed byFortune. By contrast, LedgerX—a U.S. futures exchange that FTXacquired in August 2021 for around $300 million—lost $6.1 million in 2021, according to a financial statement viewed by Fortune.LedgerX was sold as part of FTX’s bankruptcy in April 2023 for just $50 million, which offers the best comparison of a potential sales price for FTX Europe.According to financials of FTX Europe viewed by Fortune, the platform peaked at around $60,000 traded per user per month in September 2022, two months before FTX collapsed, and the following month it added 23,000 new users. (FTX claims in its lawsuit against the subsidiary that it was “unable to verify or rationalize basic key performance indicators that could be provided to potential buyers.”)

Is Sam Bankman-Fried Tied to a New Apparent Crypto Scam Called BALD? --The rug-pulling of short-lived, heavily hyped meme coin bald (BALD) has a whole cast of characters, but is one of them Sam Bankman-Fried?On-chain data suggests interactions between the memecoin BALD’s deployer contract and one of the wallets tagged by Nansen as belonging to Alameda Research - the trading company founded and controlled by Bankman-Fried. The data was cited by several blockchain sleuths on the social media platform formerly known as Twitter and later validated by CoinDesk.Wintermute’s head of research, Igor Igamberdiev, tied another wallet address 0xccFa05 to Alameda, stating its owner showed strong technical capabilities and proved to be a savvy DeFi user: Trading on the first version of dYdX and Oasis, as well as voting on the first proposals from SushiSwap.The wallet was seemingly active on crypto exchanges Binance, FTX and Coinbase (COIN) in that period and was a heavy DeFi user, farming millions of dollars on early DeFi projects such as Yearn Finance and Cream.However, Igamberdiev stated that while the actions seemed to be "definitely someone from Alameda," it was unlikely to be Bankman-Fried himself.“Given the track record and the lack of contacts with other players (even 3AC actively interacted with BlockFi, Genesis, etc.), then we can point the finger toward someone from Alameda,” he tweeted, “And let's try to answer probably the most critical question, SBF or Sam Trabucco?”Over the last weekend, the lure of meme coin fortunes in a starved market helped Coinbase’s new layer-2 blockchain Base attract some $68 million in ether (ETH) and over $200 million in trading volumes. Traders flocked to purchase bald (BALD) tokens, which jumped to $85 million market cap late on Sunday, with some traders like @cheatcoiner over $1.4 million from an initial $500 investment.On Monday, BALD deployers started to remove millions of dollars in liquidity from the token's trading pairs in a sudden and unannounced move. This left thousands of holders in the lurch andcaused prices to plunge as much as 90% as holders made a run for the exits.All of this drama occurred with one humorous caveat: the Base blockchain isn't even officially open to the public yet, with a proper launch expected later this year.Base, built by crypto exchange Coinbase on OP Stack, launched its testnet in January and opened to builders in mid-July basis the submission of applications to Base. Traction has been scant, so far, except for Sunday when the likes of BALD led to a sudden rush in capital - and users - to the blockchain.

Some crypto assets are securities, Manhattan judge says, complicating Coinbase and Ripple cases -A Manhattan federal judge said in an opinion that cryptocurrencies are considered securities regardless of how they are sold. It allows the Securities and Exchange Commission to pursue securities charges against Terraform Labs and its founder Do Kwon and has broad ramifications for crypto legislation and litigation. U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff's decision Monday complicates SEC's litigation with both Ripple and crypto exchange Coinbase. The SEC had alleged that Coinbase engaged in the unregistered offer and sale of securities. Coinbase strongly denies that it has listed any crypto asset securities. Coinbase shares are down about 4,5% in Tuesday trading. The opinion contradicts an earlier rulin from the same district court that said ripple , another cryptocurrency, may not be categorized as a security in all circumstances. It will not impact the prior opinion. The Ripple ruling was considered a win by the industry because it said a cryptocurrency may or may not be a security depending on who's buying it. The SEC has argued in cases against Binance, Coinbase and Kraken that many cryptocurrencies listed on popular exchanges are securities. "The Court declines to draw a distinction between these coins based on their manner of sale, such that coins sold directly to institutional investors are considered securities and those sold through secondary market transactions to retail investors are not," Rakoff said of the prior ruling in the Ripple case. "In doing so, the Court rejects the approach recently adopted by another judge of this district in a similar case." Kwon and Terraform Labs are accused of committing a massive fraud upon investors through the unregistered offer and sale of multiple cryptoassets, including luna and a stablecoin called terraUSD. The opinion from Rakoff also lends support to arguments from some lawmakers, who have said that crypto legislation is needed to clarify the role of regulators and the courts over crypto markets. The SEC has pursued numerous other crypto firms over the alleged unregistered offer and sale of securities, including Coinbase , Gemini and Genesis.

Coinbase's latest argument in SEC case: Selling crypto is like trading baseball cards -- Coinbase Global asked a US judge to dismiss a lawsuit from the Securities and Exchange Commission, arguing that the cryptocurrencies sold through its exchange are more like baseball cards than investment securities."Our core argument is simple — we do not offer 'investment contracts' as that term has been construed by decades of Supreme Court and other binding precedent," Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.The filing on Friday came one day after the largest US crypto exchange reported that revenue earned from trading fees fell to its lowest level in nearly three years.The SEC filed its lawsuit against Coinbase in June, alleging it was an unregistered exchange because Coinbase allowed the sale of certain crypto tokens the agency considers to be securities — and therefore part of the SEC's jurisdiction.The question of what constitutes a security is key in this case as well as a larger legal campaign by the SEC to crack down on the cryptocurrency industry.The regulator made a similar argument about securities in a separate suit against Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, arguing that Binance also allowed certain digital currencies to be traded on its platform that should have been registered with the SEC.Since the beginning of 2023, the SEC has charged 17 different crypto actors with violating securities laws.The SEC's framework for evaluating digital assets as securities relies on the "Howey test." This test has its origins in a 1946 Supreme Court case dealing with tracts of Florida orange groves sold by W.J. Howey Co. and leased back to the company.The Supreme Court labeled these leaseback deals as investment contracts, meaning they needed to be registered with the SEC.It also defined what constituted a security: "an investment of money in a common enterprise with profits to come solely from the efforts of others."Coinbase argued in its new filing Friday that the digital currencies sold on its platform are akin to baseball cards that are bought and sold on the open market by people who hope the cards will appreciate in value. Such cards are a commodity, not a security, it argued."That remains true even if the company makes representations about plans to create a premier card trading platform, to drive up the value of the cards it sells. Those representations can’t turn baseball cards into securities. Baseball cards are not “shares in the [baseball card] enterprise."

Coinbase quarterly loss narrows, revenue exceeds estimates -- Coinbase Global, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, said its second-quarter loss narrowed and revenue exceeded estimates. The net loss for the little more than a decade-old-firm narrowed to $97 million, or 42 cents a share, from a record $1.1 billion, or $4.98, a year earlier. It was the sixth consecutive quarterly loss. Even so, the shares have more than doubled this year. Revenue declined 12% to $707.9 million, higher than the $631.2 million consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Quarterly transaction revenue fell to $327.1 million. Coinbase benefitted from a rebound in crypto prices in the first half of the year while its chief executive, Brian Armstrong, has became deeper embroiled in a fight with U.S. regulators. The Securities and Exchange Commission sued the firm in June for allegedly running an illegal exchange, broker and clearing agency. Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal said in an earnings call that the company on Friday will file a brief asking the court to dismiss the case. "Coinbase's revenue beat versus consensus estimates was due in large part to better-than-expected interest income and staking revenue, which are two areas of the company's business that appear to be at risk going forward,"

Bitcoin Is Not Crypto, The SEC Announces - Talk to a bitcoin maximalist – someone who believes that bitcoin is the only digital asset with innate value – and, more likely than not, they’ll tell you the world’s oldest cryptocurrency is, in fact, ‘not crypto’ at all. The refrain can be confusing: clearly, bitcoin pioneered the use of cryptography – an ultra-secure type of encryption – with the aim of creating a digital currency.Bitcoin is the archetypal crypto. And yet, in the context of how the digital asset marketplace has evolved since 2009, when bitcoin was created, it’s easy to see why maximalists distance themselves from the more generic term. Today, there are thousands of copycat cryptos.It’s true that a few are experimenting with innovative technologies – algorithms that bitcoin may, one day, absorb into its code – but the vast majority can be dismissed as scams and get-rich-quick-schemes. PROMOTED To many in the space, crypto has become a euphemism for fraud and exploitation – the opposite of the autonomous digital cash Satoshi Nakamoto set out to create. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), America’s financial regulator, shares this concern and has tried to protect consumers from unscrupulous players in the cryptosphere. Its main weapon is an offensive defense: clipping the wings of dodgy cryptos by attacking the exchanges, or digital marketplaces, where they’re traded.That’s why the SEC sued Binance and Coinbase last month: fewer consumers will be left out of pocket, the regulator hopes, if it becomes harder to buy and sell these speculative instruments. The SEC’s strategy hinges on a claim that most cryptos can be classified as “securities”, or financial instruments that give the holder a tradable stake in a profit-making enterprise. As such, any entity facilitating their trade needs to jump through certain hoops in order to stay on the right side of US Securities law. If they fail to do so, they face lawsuits, fines and potential dissolution.

Crypto Is Illegal in China. Binance Does $90 Billion of Business There Anyway. – WSJ - Retaining its Chinese footprint will be crucial for Binance as it faces a global regulatory crackdown Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, was supposed to leave China behind when the country made cryptocurrency trading illegal in 2021.

GameStop to pull support for its native crypto wallets by Nov. 1 - GameStop has set a date for the demise of its crypto wallet program, chalking it up to “regulatory uncertainty.” The publicly traded GameStop will take its iOS and Chrome wallet extensions off the market by Nov. 1, according to an alert on its website. It had previously told investors on an earnings call that it would wind down the company’s crypto activities. GameStop advised customers to write down or recover their secret passphrase before Oct. 1. “Any customer with access to their Secret Passphrase has the ability to recover their account in any compatible wallet,” GameStop wrote. Metamask and WalletConnect are, for now, compatible with GameStop NFT, its NFT marketplace. GameStop had been telegraphing its hesitance around digital assets for months. During a December 2022 earnings call, then-CEO Matt Furlong said that crypto has “potential” but not enough to warrant taking on outsized risks with company cash. “Although we continue to believe there is long-term potential for digital assets in the gaming world, we have not, and will not, risk meaningful stockholder capital in the space,” Furlong said in the Dec. 7 call. A day before that call took place, GameStop axed at least six employees working on blockchain initiatives. GameStop representatives did not immediately return a request for comment. GameStop didn’t detail specifics of the regulatory uncertainty that contributed to the move.

Teen Gamers Swiped $24 Million in Crypto, Then Turned on Each Other – Bloomberg - (paywalled) Michael Terpin lost a fortune to a phone “SIM swap.” When he went to war to get it back, he found some surprising allies. In January 2018 the Consumer Electronics Show brought its lanyarded hordes to Las Vegas, as it does every year, and Michael Terpin was among them. Then 60, he was hosting a cryptocurrency event at Caesars Palace to coincide with the mammoth tech conference. He and his wife, Maxine, were at a home they own in Vegas, getting ready for opening night, when Terpin received an email from Google telling him a new device had gained access to one of his accounts. He yelled up the stairs to Maxine: “I think we’re getting hacked again!”

Hospital computer systems in multiple states hit by cyberattack --Hospitals and clinics in five states are facing disruptions due to a cyberattack Thursday that forced some emergency rooms to close.The attack began at facilities operated by Prospect Medical Holdings. The company’s facilities in California, Texas, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania were affected by the cyberattack.“Upon learning of this, we took our systems offline to protect them and launched an investigation with the help of third-party cybersecurity specialists,” the company said in a statement Friday.“While our investigation continues, we are focused on addressing the pressing needs of our patients as we work diligently to return to normal operations as quickly as possible.” Beyond impacting emergency rooms, the attacks caused the closures of some primary care services and ambulance diversions.

The failure of the stablecoin bill reveals the new political divide in crypto - Legislative markups don’t always make for compelling TV, although last week’s showdown at the House Financial Services Committee certainly created some memorable moments. At least that’s how I experienced it—I was blissfully on vacation and couldn’t tune in to the full marathon sessions. The postmortem spin has been that getting two bills—one focused on crypto-market-structure oversight, the other on stablecoins—out of the House Financial Services Committee, with a modicum of bipartisan support, was a major win. To some degree, that’s true, in that the industry’s central political goal is legitimization, whether through outright regulation or the acknowledgment from lawmakers that regulation is necessary. Market structure legislation has always seemed like a long shot, and the above seems true—the bill’s passage is a significant step forward in advancing the conversation, passing a hurdle where others havestumbled.It’s hard to see the stablecoin bill as anything but a failure. This was always the effort that had the best chance to become legislation, with then-chair Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) and ranking member Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) coming close to a final version last year. With their roles flipped this year, it still seemed like there was an appetite to advance legislation. And when McHenry moved forward with a Republican-only version earlier this session, onlookers framedWaters’ frustration as political maneuvering.Amid the markups for the two bills, however, the stablecoin bill proved more contentious—and ultimately received less support. And while a select few Democrats voted in favor, the majority voiced opposition during an increasingly heated hearing. As Pedersen notedin his live-tweet thread (live-x thread?), it was “surreal to watch several months of delicate, gradual goodwill between McHenry and Waters evaporate in just a couple hours.”According to McHenry, the main roadblock came from the White House. Subsequent reporting has revealed the wedge was a persistent issue in debates over stablecoin regulation—whether to prioritize oversight at the state or federal level. The Biden administration, and National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard in particular, pushed for federal preemption (the Republican version would still create a federal floor for stablecoin oversight requirements).What’s fascinating about this divide is that the split is not along partisan lines. Recall that the only comprehensive stablecoin oversight in the U.S. is in New York, thanks to its Department of Financial Services. When its superintendent, the Democratic-appointed Adrienne Harris, testified before the House Financial Services Committee earlier this year, she pushed for an approach that would preserve New York’s autonomy. There was also a strange moment from the hearing where Waters appeared unclear that New York even had a regulatory regime for stablecoins.According to a Democratic staffer on the committee, who spoke with me yesterday on the condition of anonymity, DFS was involved in conversations around legislation, advocating for the state-only path that the White House subsequently opposed. And if you look at the five Democratic congressmen who voted for the bill, two were from New York—Ritchie Torres and Gregory Meeks. A spokesperson for DFS declined to comment for the newsletter.The upshot is a new divide being formed around crypto regulation—not along partisan lines, but instead other questions such as state versus federal oversight. I asked the staffer why most Democrats are opposed to at least preserving New York’s system. “That’s a million-dollar question,” they replied.

Congress could actually pass crypto legislation that banks support --The House Financial Services Committee might have put on a fiery show last week in its stablecoin legislation markup, but some Senate lawmakers quietly made more progress on advancing some kind of cryptocurrency bill into law as part of a must-pass package on defense spending. Bipartisan talks between House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., and the panel's ranking member Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., dramatically fell apart Thursday in a markup of the long-awaited stablecoin bill. Without strong support from the House's Democrats, those efforts are unlikely to get very far in the Senate. But meanwhile, a bipartisan group of Senators — made up of Sens. Kristen Gillibrand, D-N.Y., Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Roger Marshall, R-Kan. — managed to lap their House colleagues, attaching a crypto-anti-money-laundering provision to the must-pass defense spending package, a significant step forward for a policy area that's been otherwise difficult to legislate. McHenry said that, despite months of negotiations between his office and Waters' on the bill, the White House ultimately had an issue with the lack of federal oversight for state-chartered nonbanks, and Republicans chose to move forward with a markup without Democratic support.Democrats staged a walkout early in the markup to try and prevent a quorum, and spent the rest of the day trying to throw up administrative barriers for Republicans in protest of the markup being held, Democratic party members said, without enough time for them to propose substantial amendments. "A bipartisan deal was within reach — we were closer than we've ever been," McHenry said at the markup. "A few small, but nonetheless important, provisions stood between us and a deal. It was the White House's unwillingness to compromise that has once again brought negotiations to a halt. It's a shame, but at some point you have to put the pens down." Banking groups have largely shared the concerns of the committee's Democrats. In a July letter to McHenry and Waters, a coalition of state banking groups, led by the American Bankers Association, said they are concerned about the state regulation element of the stablecoin bill. The groups asked lawmakers to apply the same level of federal oversight to state-licensed stablecoin issuers, similar to what is applied to state-chartered banks, to avoid the risk of arbitrage. "Federal oversight applied in this equivalent manner — reflecting the principle of same activity, same risk, same regulation — would include state-licensed stablecoin issuers having a primary federal regulator that evaluates and approves or rejects license applications, establishes and enforces compliance with rules to ensure financial stability and consumer protection, and participates in ongoing supervision," the groups said in the letter. The bill ultimately passed the committee in a 34-16 vote, with just five Democrats voting in favor. That puts the stablecoin bill's chances in the Senate very low, where Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, has shown little interest in tackling the issue with Republicans.

Regulatory deterrence, policy debate and litigation: crypto's future — Before the March bank failures brought core banking issues like capital and liquidity back to the fore, regulators repeatedly warned banks against exposure to digital assets. Though banks were largely unscathed by the collapse of giant crypto exchange FTX late in 2022, the event reinforced regulators' skeptical posture, culminating in a January joint guidance in which the Fed, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. together advised the banks they oversee to be wary of crypto."The agencies have significant safety and soundness concerns with business models that are concentrated in crypto-asset-related activities or have concentrated exposures to the crypto-asset sector," the regulators wrote in the joint guidance.In addition to discouraging banks from working with crypto, they have penalized crypto firms that engage in behavior that too closely resembles banking, including marketing materials that claim crypto customers' accounts are covered by FDIC insurance. The FDIC issued cease and desist orders to crypto firms for misrepresentations of deposit insurance in February, after making similar requests to firms Voyager and FTX.Regulators like Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu have since doubled down on the tone in the joint guidance. Hsu indicated at a June press conference that the agencies are continuing to recommend banks use caution toward digital assets. He also noted that recent volatility may have made banks less interested in crypto."The crypto winter was pretty tough for the crypto industry," he said. "Those who I put into the bucket of crypto curious — on the banking side — lost some of that curiosity, given some of those events. The issue of scams, fraud, hacks; those continue, those haven't gotten better over time. So that issue has kind of receded in terms of materiality, it's something we care about, it's something that we still expect banks to approach prudently, but I'm just not hearing as much noise or demand for banks to get in on crypto."A few days later, in remarks delivered to the American Bankers Association in June, Hsu reiterated that the crypto industry — particularly anonymous, decentralized platforms — is immature and rife with risks. He added, however, that policymakers are increasingly interested in exploring how crypto's underlying "tokenization" technology could be applied to make payments in traditional finance more efficient.Biden administration bank regulators have made clear that they will continue to try to retain separation between crypto and traditional banking, and some experts argue that they have good reason to do so.

Fintechs balk at bill that would limit their new SBA lending authority -Fintech lenders eager to capitalize on a new rule opening the Small Business Administration's flagship 7(a) loan-guarantee program to more nondepository lenders are crying foul over legislation they claim would reverse most of the changes ushered in by the regulation. The Senate Small Business Committee voted to advance the Community Advantage Loan Program Act of 2023 by an 18-1 margin last month. The bill is co-sponsored by Sen. Ben Cardin, D-Md., the committee's chairman, as well as its ranking Republican, Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa.While the Cardin-Ernst legislation makes Community Advantage — an SBA pilot program Cardin strongly supports — permanent, it also places strict limits on SBA's authority to open its flagship 7(a) lending program to nondepository small-business lending companies. That expansion, a key Biden administration goal, has drawn the ire of Ernst and other congressional Republicans who fear that wider SBLC participation would expose 7(a) to a greater risk of fraud like that experienced by the Paycheck Protection Program.. The bill caps the number of nondepository 7(a) lenders at 17, three more than the 14 that are currently active. The bill would also make any SBLC authorized after June 1 wait five years before it is eligible to obtain delegated lending authority. Under 7(a), SBA guarantees loans up to 85% on loans of $5 million or less. Delegated authority permits a lender to approve a 7(a) loan without agency review. Scott Stewart, CEO of the Innovative Lending Platform Association, a trade group representing online small-business lenders, called the Cardin-Ernst legislation "a terrible policy outcome." According to Stewart, the bill effectively reestablishes a 1982 moratorium that limited the number of SBLCs permitted to participate in 7(a) to 14. "We've replaced the Reagan moratorium of 1982 with the Cardin-Ernst moratorium of 2023," Stewart said Wednesday in an interview. "If you're given a license but you're unable to exercise that license for five years — what privately held company would agree to that." Funding Circle, a fintech lender that plans to seek one of the three SBLC licenses made available under SBA's new rules, said in a statement the Biden-Ernst legislation "places unfair and burdensome rules and regulations on some small-business lending companies while exempting all 2,200 participating banks, credit unions, and community development financial institutions. … We believe that the rules and regulations should apply equally to all lenders in the program." The Cardin-Ernst bill would reduce the number of 7(a) loans Funding Circle is able to make over the next three years by 26%, including loans in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods and rural areas, said Ryan Metcalf, the company's head of public affairs. "The removal of our ability to get delegated authority adds seven to 10 days" to the approval process, Metcalf said. "It makes it more expensive and harder for us to do [small-dollar] loans."

Fed says U.S. banks tightened credit further in wake of failures --The Federal Reserve said that banks reported tighter standards and continued weak demand for loans in the second quarter, extending a trend that began before recent stresses in the banking sector emerged. The proportion of U.S. banks tightening terms on commercial and industrial loans for medium and large businesses rose to 50.8%, up from 46% in the first quarter, according to a Fed survey of lending officers released Monday. The collapse of four U.S. regional banks since March sparked turmoil in the financial sector and increased concerns that lenders would rein in access to credit in a way that could tip the U.S. economy into a recession. Recent data, including last week's report of greater-than-expected growth, have shown the economy has been resilient in the face of the turmoil. "The tightening in lending standards generally intensified," JPMorgan Chase & Co. economist Daniel Silver said in a report. The historically tight data "are not a guarantee of a recession to come, but the tightening evident as of late suggests that the economy should slow." The survey also showed low demand for credit persists despite some improvement. The share of banks reporting weaker demand for commercial and industrial loans among large and mid-sized firms fell to 51.6%, from 55.6% in the first quarter. The figures in the survey are calculated as net percentages, or the shares of banks reporting tighter conditions or stronger demand minus the proportion of banks reporting easier standards or weaker demand. The poll — known as the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, or Sloos — showed banks expecting to further tighten standards on all types of loans, citing a less favorable or more uncertain economic outlook and expected deterioration in collateral values and the credit quality of loans as reasons. There was a particular concern by banks over commercial real estate following struggles by office-building owners in the wake of increased remote work due to COVID-19 and higher interest rates. The net percentage of banks reporting tighter standards on construction and land development loans was 71.7%. It was 68.3% on nonfarm, nonresidential loans, according to the survey. Overall, the data in the survey are "at least consistent with the tightening in credit that the Fed has been aiming to achieve with raising rates — although credit was still tightening from easy levels so the overall impact on activity is less clear,"

BankThink: One way or another, the Fed's capital proposal isn't going to fly | American Banker Op Ed - I'm not too proud to admit when I'm wrong. A few weeks ago in these pages I wrote a column describing how the Fed's highly anticipated Basel III: Endgame capital proposal would end up larding up capital on the very banks that saw capital relief under the prior administration — this despite Federal Reserve Vice Chair of Supervision Michael Barr saying in a speech that the capital raise would primarily be levied against "the largest, most complex banks." I took that to mean banks over $100 billion, and further inferred that the banks above that threshold that would feel the most pain were the midsize tranche of banks that seemed so evidently undercapitalized in this spring's episode of failures. But in my defense, I said that because that would have made sense. When the proposal finally dropped last Thursday, it was immediately apparent that Barr meant what he said without my interpretive assistance. The proposal would in fact weigh heaviest on the global systemically important banks — the biggest of the big, and the banks already subject to the most stringent capital requirements. The proposal will do this by effectively ending the "advanced approaches" regime that allows banks to use their own internal risk models in place of the Fed's standardized model, instead replacing it with not one but two Fed-developed standardized models and obliging the biggest banks to hold the higher of the two. Why does the Fed need two standardized models? Great question.But the net effect of all of this is that the biggest banks are going to have to hold something like 20% more capital and the other banks over $100 billion will have to hold about10% more capital. The rationale for this, as Barr explained, is that "the benefits of a robust financial system, as well as resilient financial institutions, outweigh the costs to economic activity that may result from additional capital." By that standard, anything that is less costly to the economy and the taxpayer than the 2008 Global Financial Crisis would be justified. Whether that rationale and the agencies' diligence in justifying this proposal is adequate is a question that I suspect will ultimately be decided by a judge. But I'm not even sure it will make it that far. Of the six members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the two governors nominated by Donald Trump — Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman — voted against the proposal. Another two — Fed chair Jerome Powell and vice-chair-designate Philip Jefferson — expressed reservations about whether this was a good idea, but agreed to put forth the proposal anyway. Even Barr himself seemed open to the possibility that the final version of the proposal may be quite different from the version we saw for the first time the other day, extending the public comment period to 120 days and saying "all comments will be carefully considered" and that the agency "will be vigilant in working to avoid unintended consequences" that result from the rule. Just to get the rule finalized, it seems he's going to have to make some substantial concessions.The Basel III: Endgame — once known as Basel IV because it had such broad significance on its own — has been in the works since the global financial crisis and thus vastly predates the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, et al. But for better or worse, whatever the Fed came up with in this proposal would inevitably be viewed as a policy response to the unpleasantness of this spring. But if there's one thing that we learned from the recent bank failures — and to a lesser extent during the COVID pandemic — it's that the biggest banks can weather any number of different macroeconomic storms, and indeed are a source of strength for the banking sector.

Capital reform is coming, but not without a fight -Federal regulators are poised to increase risk-capital requirements on large banks, but not before addressing some key criticisms of their proposal. Leaders of the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency seem to be in strong alignment on new risk-based capital rules for banks with at least $100 billion of assets and they have — at least tentatively — enough support within their agencies to enact the plan. But ensuring the rules — which would increase aggregate capital obligations within the affected banks by an average of 16% — are not scuttled by a legal challenge or congressional intervention could require regulators to address concerns raised by outside groups and members of their governing boards. Two Fed governors and two FDIC board members voted against the proposal, citing concerns about its broad brush and skepticism that such reforms were necessary. Two other Fed officials voted in favor of opening the proposal up to public comment yet offered significant caveats. Fed Gov. Philip Jefferson, who voted yes on issuing the proposal, expressed concerns about how the rule changes would affect bank lending activity. "I will evaluate any future proposed final rules on their merits," Jefferson said during an open meeting last Thursday. "My views on any proposed final Basel III endgame requirements for U.S. banking organizations will be informed by the potential impact on banking-sector resiliency, financial stability and the broader economy stemming from the implementation." When introducing their proposal, regulators noted that the new regulatory burdens would weigh heaviest on global systemically important banks, which will see their average aggregate capital increase by 19% compared with just 10% by other banks with at least $250 billion of assets. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, the architect of the reforms, also said most banks already have sufficient capital to meet the requirements of the proposed rules and those who do not could raise the additional equity needed within two years. But, when pressed for details, Fed staffers simply stated that their analysis determined that the additional costs associated with the new regulatory regime would be outweighed by loss-prevention benefits of higher capital.

Q2 2023 Update: Unofficial Problem Bank list Increased to 47 Institutions --The Heartland Tri-State Bank was closed on Friday, but wasn't on the unofficial list. The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest. As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest. Here are the quarterly changes and a few comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List through June 30, 2023. Since the last update at the end of March 2023, the list increased by one to 47 institutions after three additions and two removals. Assets increased by $5.7 billion to $55 billion, overcoming a $3.1 billion decrease from updated asset figures through March 31, 2023. A year ago, the list held 54 institutions with assets of $54.4 billion. Additions include Cross River Bank, Teaneck, NJ ($8.5 billion); The Idabel National Bank, Idabel, OK ($292 million); and Du Quoin State Bank, Du Quoin, IL ($137 million). Removals were United Trust Bank, Palos Heights, IL ($143 million) and Wabash Savings Bank, Mount Carmel, IL ($9.6 million). With the conclusion of the second quarter, we bring an updated transition matrix to detail how banks are transitioning off the Unofficial Problem Bank List. Since we first published the Unofficial Problem Bank List on August 7, 2009 with 389 institutions, 1,784 institutions have appeared on a weekly or monthly list since then. Only 2.6 percent of the banks that have appeared on a list remain today as 1,745 institutions have transitioned through the list. Departure methods include 1,032 action terminations, 411 failures, 283 mergers, and 19 voluntary liquidations. Of the 389 institutions on the first published list, only 3 or less than 1.0 percent, still have a troubled designation more than ten years later. The 411 failures represent nearly 23 percent of the 1,792 institutions that have made an appearance on the list. This failure rate is well above the 10-12 percent rate frequently cited in media reports on the failure rate of banks on the FDIC's official list. On May 31, 2023, the FDIC released first quarter results and provided an update on the Official Problem Bank List. While FDIC did not make a comment within its press release on the Official Problem Bank List, they provided aggregate totals of 43 institutions with assets of $58 billion.

FDIC should fine banks revising uninsured deposits, lawmakers say — Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif., criticized the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. for not doing more to prevent banks from revising the amount of uninsured deposits they hold. The FDIC said last week that some banks are undercounting their uninsured deposits after the agency said it would base a "special assessment" to the Deposit Insurance Fund based on the level of uninsured deposits that banks hold. The special assessment will be levied to refill the Deposit Insurance Fund after federal regulators declared a systemic risk exception to guarantee the uninsured deposits of the failed Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March. "This is much more than a technical matter, and there is no excuse for the banks' inaccurate reporting: The reporting requirements here are not new, nor are they confusing," the lawmakers said in the letter. "The banks' revisions to their reports, however, do have important implications." Warren and Porter specifically call out Bank of America, which the lawmakers said restated its uninsured deposits by $125 billion, 14% lower than what it originally reported, and Huntington Bank, which provided numbers 40% lower than originally reported. Revising uninsured deposits downward would reduce banks' payment to the FDIC, which would "leave a gap in the DIF that could result in significant problems in the event of another large bank failure, or series of bank failures," Warren and Porter said. "Given the importance of accurate reporting on uninsured deposits, it is critical that the FDIC use all of its tools to ensure that banks are meeting their requirements," they said in the letter. "And the agency does have powerful tools." The FDIC can fine banks no more than $1 million, or 1% of total assets, whichever is smaller, of a bank that knowingly or with reckless disregard for the accuracy of any information or report, submits or publishes any false or misleading information, for each day the false or misleading information is not corrected, Warren and Porter said.

The dream of sweeping post-bank failure legislation has dimmed — Washington teaches you to never waste a crisis. But the trick, it seems, is that the crisis has to be big enough. Just a few months after three large regional bank failures, momentum on Capitol Hill to pass legislation in response to that turmoil seems to have dissipated. The crisis never reached regular constituents and voters, experts say, so there's little political appetite to shake up the oversight of a wealthy industry ahead of what's expected to be a contentious election year. "Once the regional banks felt like they had achieved some stability, I think that sort of took things off the front burner a bit in terms of what needed to be addressed," said Chris Hayes, president of financial services policy advisory firm RedLine Policy Strategies. The most significant progress has come from the Senate Banking Committee, which marked up a package that would make it easier for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to claw back the compensation of failed bank executives. But that's a far cry from calls to reform the deposit insurance system, or to toughen oversight of mid-sized banks and their regulators, that sprung up in the immediate aftermath of the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. "I think once the immediate impact was addressed, the shift has been more to thinking about more stringent controls about executive compensation," Hayes said. That executive compensation package could make it in some form to President Joe Biden's desk, said Todd Phillips, an assistant professor at Georgia State University, although it will have to pass through the Republican-controlled House. "Things don't pass out of the Senate Banking Committee very often, and it passing out with only two dissenting votes means it's going to be very hard for the House to frankly not act on it," he said. "I think something will happen, but I'm not exactly sure when." But Congress isn't likely to pass anything more impactful than what's already been marked up in the Senate Banking Committee, Phillips said. On deposit insurance reforms, at least, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, said in a recent hearing that while he'd like to consider raising deposit insurance ceilings and premiums, that has to be paired with making the banking system safer in some way. "In his mind, deposit insurance reform has to go hand in hand with something else," Phillips said. "That's just not where the Republican party is right now. We're in the middle of a presidential election, the ranking member is running for president, the House is focusing on crypto. I wouldn't say there's an appetite on the Republican side to put pen to paper and come out with proposals that would in some way restrict the banks."

'This is the sleeping giant': Banks zero in on fourth-party risk --Banks, especially small ones, cannot afford to gloss over the risk that extends through the supply chain of their vendors."Community banks are essentially a collection of third-party technology contracts with customer service reps and lenders stacked on top," said Bob Koncerak, the chief operating officer of the $498 million-asset American Commerce Bank. "The only delivery channel that my bank truly owns is the little piece of real estate in front of our teller windows."The question of fourth party risk, or that posed by a bank's vendors' vendors, has become more pressing over time as these relationships become increasingly complex and regulators have scrutinized the practice of risk management, most recently in interagency guidance released in June that focused on third-party partnerships.The dangers of neglecting third-party due diligence were laid bare in compliance failures byComerica Bank and American Express National Bank, as two recent examples. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency penalized American Express with a $15 million fine in July, partly because it did not ensure that its affiliate implemented adequate call-monitoring controls and mechanisms for tracking customer complaints. Comerica has faced investigations and litigation stemming from its compliance failures while operating the Direct Express program. The bank was penalized for allowing fraud disputes and data on Direct Express cardholders to be handled out of a vendor's office in Lahore, Pakistan.But the threat of fourth parties lurks deeper in the background."The web of relationships is getting more complex, but the expectation is that banks and other companies will be liable for everything throughout the chain," from cybersecurity to forced labor to environment, social and governance, or ESG, principles, said Josh Resnik, the president and chief operating officer of market intelligence company FiscalNote.The fast pace of emerging technologies and increased focus from regulators means CCBank's approach to fourth-party risk "has been evolving," said Jory Norton, chief risk officer at the Provo, Utah-based bank. "Fourth-party risk has increasingly come on our radar in the last couple of years."The report released in June from the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on third-party relationships touches on the issue of subcontractors. The proposed guidance invited comment in the fall of 2021; the final report noted that many commenters were concerned about the potential challenges in conducting effective due diligence on subcontractors, perhaps because they lacked a relationship or leverage. "The proposal took more of a firm stance on fourth-party risk management with the expectation that banks would conduct more direct oversight of their third parties' vendors,"

Wells Fargo customers report missing deposits from bank accounts -Wells Fargo customers are reporting the disappearance of direct deposits in their accounts.On X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, users complained about their disappearing funds. One bank customer said they saw the news about the problem right as they noticed their deposits weren’t in their account.“Right before this popped up in the news I saw that my deposits weren’t in my account,” their tweet read. “I was trying to pay bills and none would go through. This is so unacceptable.”The company responded in a statement to CNN that a “limited amount” of their customers are experiencing the disappearing deposits. They said most of them were “resolved” and that they would fix the problem soon. “We sincerely apologize for any inconvenience,” the bank’s statement reads.

FDIC orders Unbanked, Inc. to halt false deposit insurance claims — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. issued a cease-and-desist order Friday to an Alpharetta, Ga.-based cryptocurrency nonbank known as Unbanked, Inc., saying that the firm made incorrect and deceptive statements when it suggested various crypto-related products it offers were covered by FDIC deposit insurance.FDIC said the company's promotional materials on its website and social media account falsely suggested FDIC insurance encompasses cryptocurrency, and further implied the agency's insurance would protect Unbanked, Inc.'s investors against potential losses. While the FDIC noted Unbanked has advertised it holds partner-banking relationships with two actual FDIC-insured banks, the agency strictly prohibits conflating such partnerships with deposit insurance coverage, particularly over digital assets, which the agency has explicitly said it does not cover. "FDIC insurance does not cover cryptocurrency or digital assets," the agency wrote in a press release announcing the action. "In addition, the FDIC only insures deposits held in FDIC-insured financial institutions and only protects against losses caused by the failure of an FDIC-insured financial institution."FDIC chair Martin Gruenberg has repeatedly said he will work to defend the reputation and credibility of its deposit insurance, something he says is threatened when non-banks misrepresent the nature of coverage. In an increasingly online banking ecosystem, a handful ofcompanies have violated FDIC rules in recent years by incorrectly claiming their products are government-backed.

Body pulled from NYC waterway identified as missing Goldman staffer – NYPD (Reuters) - A body found in a New York City creek has been identified as missing John Castic, a Goldman Sachs staffer, the New York City Police Department said. Castic was a member of Goldman's controllers team working closely with its asset and wealth management business, the Wall Street firm said. "The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner will determine the cause of death," the NYPD said Castic, 27, was last seen on Saturday at about 2:30 a.m. leaving a "Zeds Dead" concert at The Brooklyn Mirage in East Williamsburg, according to a Fox News Digital report. "We are all shocked and saddened to learn of John’s tragic passing," Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said in a statement. "Our thoughts are with his mother Dawn, his father Jeff, and his entire family at this very difficult time."

House Republicans target CFPB dialog with European regulators — A group of House Republicans wrote to Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra challenging the bureau's ability to host an "informal dialogue" with the European Commission. House Republicans have been vocally critical of Chopra and the CFPB, hosting hearings and floating legislation that would curb the bureau's power. While that trend has intensified during the Biden administration, it's part of a longstanding conflict between the party and the bureau that extends back to its establishment in Dodd-Frank. In the letter to Chopra, the group of Republicans led by Rep. Young Kim, R-Calif., and including Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., the chairman of the subcommittee on financial institutions, criticized Chopra for an announcement made last month that he would work with his counterpart in Europe to identify emerging consumer threats in artificial intelligence, buy now/pay later anddigital payments. According to the letter, the CFPB doesn't have the authority to make deals with the European Commission, because the bureau doesn't have an implicit power from Congress to engage in policymaking discussions with foreign nations and foreign agents. "In our view, any agreement reached on policies between the CFPB and the EU will not enjoy the enforcement of U.S. law," the lawmakers said in the letter. The Republicans also raised concerns that the CFPB would share supervisory confidential information with its European counterparts. "Given the CFPB's troubling pattern of opacity, lack of accountability, and unlawful actions under your leadership, we are concerned that the transatlantic dialogue in a non-public format will lead to secret policy decisions that harm U.S. consumers, small businesses, startups, and financial institutions, and potentially undermine U.S. legal frameworks," the lawmakers said. The lawmakers asked that the CFPB end its informal dialogue with the EU unless it has explicit authorization from Congress, and that Chopra brief the House Financial Services Committee on the details of talks so far.

Banks urge CFPB to halt small-business rule pending high court decision --The banking industry is asking the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to relieve all banks from complying with its small-business lending rule until after the U.S. Supreme Court decides whether the bureau's funding is constitutional.The Texas Bankers Association and the American Bankers Association sent a letter Wednesday to CFPB Director Rohit Chopra asking for all banks to get a reprieve from complying with the rule, which requires that lenders collect data on small-business loan applicants. On Monday, U.S. District Court Judge Randy Crane halted compliance with the rule by granting a preliminary injunction to members of the two trade groups and a private Texas bank. The CFPB's small-business data collection rule has long been controversial because the data can be used by government and state regulators to determine if lenders are discriminating against borrowers. Bankers want to hold off compliance for as long as possible, experts say.The bankers had argued that they should not have to comply with the rule because the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals decided last year that the CFPB's funding is unconstitutional. The trade groups and Rio Bank, an $814.7 million-asset private bank in McAllen, Texas, sued the CFPB earlier this year in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Texas to block the rule.However, the judge did not extend the injunction nationwide. Because not all banks are members of the two trade groups, the groups are now asking the CFPB to release the entire banking industry from complying with the rule.In the letter to Chopra, the bankers said the carve-out just for banks "would simplify things for both your agency and the regulated community.""We recognize the Bureau's desire to continue pressing forward with certain covered institutions and so are only asking for your consideration of extending the stay to the banking industry," wrote Chris Furlow, president and CEO of the Texas Bankers Association and Rob Nichols, president and CEO of the American Bankers Association. "While most FDIC-insured banks fall within our membership, there are some that do not."

Federal judge halts CFPB's small-business data collection rule -- A federal judge agreed to halt the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's small-business data collection rule until after the Supreme Court decides next year on whether the bureau's funding is constitutional. On Monday, U.S. District Court Judge Randy Crane granted a preliminary injunction to members of two trade groups and a private bank that had sued the CFPB to keep a rule that required lenders to collect data on small businesses from going into effect. The Texas Bankers Association, the American Bankers Association and Rio Bank, an $814.7 million-asset private bank in McAllen, Texas, had argued that they should not have to comply with the rule because the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals found last year that the CFPB's funding is unconstitutional."The 5th Circuit disagreed with the decisions of other courts that found the Bureau's funding structure was constitutionally sound," wrote Judge Crane in the 17-page order.However, the judge did not grant a nationwide injunction, which means that nonbanks are not covered. The vast majority of banks that are members of the two trade groups will not have to comply with the rule pending a Supreme Court decision in mid-2024 on the constitutionality of the CFPB. Banks and lenders oppose the rule because the data can be used to identify which financial institutions are doing a poor job of lending to Black and Hispanic-owned small businesses. CFPB Director Rohit Chopra has called the rule a "small-business loan census" that will "ensure that banks and nonbanks are serving small businesses fairly." Rio Bank had argued that it would cost $250,000 to comply with the rule, which was mandated by Congress in 2010. "We believe the injunction is a recognition of the complexity of the 1071 Final Rule and the significant costs and burdens it places on our members, particularly community banks which provide much of the country's small-business lending," the Texas Bankers Association, Rio Bank and the ABA said in a statement. The CFPB issued the rule, also known as the 1071 rule for its section in the Dodd-Frank Act, in March. The rule requires that lenders start collecting data on how many small-business applicants are approved or denied loans. The data collection covers a wide range of credit products, including term loans, lines of credit, business credit cards, online credit products and merchant cash advances.

The CFPB has an ambitious agenda — but so does the Supreme Court -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has a jam-packed agenda ahead with final rules coming soon that would cut credit card late fees to $8, create a registry of corporate "bad actors," and require nonbanks to disclose terms waiving consumers' rights to arbitration.But the CFPB is operating under a cloud of uncertainty with the Supreme Court scheduled to hear oral arguments in October in a case challenging whether the bureau's funding is constitutional. The legal and regulatory uncertainty will continue until the high court rules on the case by June 2024 at the latest. CFPB Director Rohit Chopra has been clear that the bureau is "not holding back" on rulemaking or enforcement."The CFPB is certainly no stranger to these types of challenges," Chopra told American Banker in a recent interview. But the CFPB got hit with further legal turbulence this week when a federal judge in Texas temporarily blocked implementation of the bureau's small business data collection rule until the Supreme Court case is decided. Bankers have since urged the bureau to halt all bank data collection under the rule until after the outcome of the Supreme Court's decision.The ruling could change the calculus for the CFPB's regulatory agenda going forward, potentially holding off several rules from going into effect. The judge granted a preliminary injunction to members of two bank trade groups and a private bank that had sued the CFPB, setting the stage for other trade groups to follow suit. "This creates the precedent that fundamentally alters the CFPB's agenda for the next year," said Ed Mills, managing director at Raymond James. "The biggest development in favor of the industry is the most recent ruling and that there is a judge that says the CFPB can't do anything until the Supreme Court has decided. The big question for banks, consumers and investors is not whether industry trade groups will sue the CFPB to block any final rules from going into effect but when and where they will sue. Trade groups have already threatened to sue the CFPB over the credit card late fee proposal, with the choice of venue likely in Texas, where Republican jurists dominate the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit.The CFPB "is going to get sued for everything and part of the reason why they get sued is because a number of the lawsuits have been successful," added Mills. The industry's playbook for how to successfully gut a CFPB rule — and challenge the constitutionality of the bureau — is the years-long litigation over the payday lending rule. The bureau issued the payday rule in 2017 and was sued in 2018 by two Texas payday groups. Last year, a three-judge panel on the Fifth Circuit ruled that the CFPB was unconstitutionally funded through the Federal Reserve System and invalidated the payday rule. The CFPB appealed that ruling last year, teeing up the current constitutionality case before the Supreme Court. In the case this week that temporarily halted the small business data collection rule for banks, the two bank trade groups also had appealed to the Fifth Circuit.

The Stock of Kidney Dialysis Firm, DaVita, Has Soared 2,500 Percent Since 1996; a New Book Reveals the Dangerous Cult Behind the Rise By Pam and Russ Martens: July 31, 2023 ~ The chart above compares the stock price performance of the kidney dialysis company, DaVita (ticker DVA), with the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index since 1996. Right away, something looks very wrong. Why should a healthcare company delivering dialysis treatment to people with kidney failure make the kind of profits that would generate this outsized stock price return? Investigative reporter and author, Tom Mueller, has dedicated his latest book to pulling back the curtain on the dirty underbelly of this industry. The book, How to Make a Killing: Blood, Death and Dollars in American Medicine, will be available for sale in bookstores tomorrow. If you have a loved one receiving kidney dialysis at centers run by either DaVita or Fresenius, we urge you to stop what you’re doing, buy this book, and read it from cover to cover.

CRE Gets Messier: Office-CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes the Fastest Ever. Bank-Held Office Mortgages also Hit by Wolf Richter The delinquency rate of commercial real estate mortgages on office properties that had been securitized into Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) spiked to 5.0% by loan balance in July, up from a delinquency rate of 2.8% in April, having now spiked by 2.2 percentage points in three months, by far the biggest three-month spike in the data going back to 2000, and by 3.4 percentage points so far this year, by far the biggest seven-month spike, according to Trepp, which tracks and analyzes CMBS. This office-mortgage default cycle is outrunning the cycle during the Financial Crisis with ease, and it just started. The cycle during the Financial Crisis, as horrible as it was, started more slowly and proceeded more slowly than this cycle; it eventually topped out four years later with a delinquency rate of over 10% in 2012 and 2013. We’re already halfway there in seven months, on mortgages that were mostly written in 2014 and later. Unlike the massive default cycle during the Financial Crisis, this default cycle is structural, in addition to being financial: No one knows what to do with all this vacant office space in older office towers. And cutting the rents to fill the properties – if it’s even possible to fill older office towers – won’t work because those much lower rents wouldn’t pay for the mortgage payments and expenses.The default cycle is also financial in that CRE mortgage rates have more than doubled, which is a killer when on variable-rate mortgages and/or when a maturing mortgage needs to be refinanced. And at these mortgage payments, older office towers with a high vacancy rate doesn’t make economic sense anymore.We have watched with fascination how mortgages on big office properties became delinquent, how landlords – giant landlords such as private equity firm Blackstone and private equity firm Brookfield – walked away from properties to let lenders take the losses, and this is happening from Houston to Chicago, from San Francisco to Manhattan, and all over the middle of the country.And we have watched with amazement how the office market has un-frozen a little, finally, and some older office towers had actually sold, at huge discounts of 50% in Manhattan, of over 70% in San Francisco, of over 80% in Houston, and in one case, the largest office tower in St. Louis, it sold for so little in a foreclosure sale that all the proceeds were eaten up by fees and expenses, and lenders got zilch. What all these big cases that came across our desk over the past 18 months had in common was that banks were not the lenders, that banks were not on the hook for losses on these big CRE loans, but that global investors ate those losses, because banks had securitized the mortgages and sold the CMBS to investors, or had sold the loans directly to private lenders, commercial mortgage REITs, and others.This has espoused a perfectly logical theory around here that banks had kept the less risky office mortgages on their books, and sold their riskiest stuff to investors, and that smaller banks that piled into CRE lending mostly stayed away from refinancing big older office towers since 2014 – the kind that is now causing these mega-problems. The theory is that bank-held office loans would also face delinquencies and losses, but maybe not as badly as the stuff investors ended up with.So some initial data on bank-held office loans going bad. The delinquency rate of bank-held office loans has also been rising since late last year: In Q4 2022, the delinquency rate of bank-held office loans reached 2.2%; and in Q1 2023 it rose to 2.7%.This is according to Trepp’s analysis of Trepp’s Anonymized Loan-Level Repository data set, which is based on a sample of $160 billion in diverse bank loans from multiple banks. So this is a limited sample of the enormous size of the loan market, but it points at the direction this is going.

How Far Will Commercial Real Estate Values Have to Drop to Start Making Sense? -- Stick real estate in the time-out corner, and 2023 is looking far better than the experts prophesied six months ago*. The S&P 500 is up 16 percent, layoffs are dropping, and economic growth has been so strong—and inflation so stubborn—that Fed watchers are predicting two more rounds of rate hikes. Now, the ballyhooed recession may slowly wash out like a false trail. Commercial real estate is a different story. Except for single-family residential and a smattering of robust towns across the country, development is DOA. Prices remain high, construction costs are steady, trending slightly upward and rising interest rates are having a twofold adverse effect: loans are that much more expensive and completion values that much lower. Every interviewee for this piece—from South Carolina to California—said they’re either sitting on their hands or slow-playing their projects, hoping to break ground several years out. One sage labeled 2023 the new 1993, recalling how that wicked recession singled out RE for crushing. Another pointed out that the lenders still answering their phones are offering loans on terms few in their right mind would accept. Developers wanting to build today must face reality: their proposed tenants are demanding emaciated rent, their contractors holding firm, and their favorite lenders just saying no. On the other hand, owners of existing properties can ignore all contraindications, and insist their properties as valuable as ever. With his amusing predilection for saying aloud what others dare only think, Donald Trump once declared, “My net worth fluctuates with… even my own feelings.” Search for a good deal today and you will quickly note that Mr. Trump’s approach to valuing real estate is far from unique. The many professionals quizzed on this point swear they have yet to even see a truly good deal. Everything is either still priced at its pre-Covid peak or riskier than BASE jumping. As always, the more optimistic believe deals are just around the corner, while one astute investor said he’s seeing signs of “capitulation.” By that he means a few sellers are reaching for their white flags, about to acknowledge the breathtaking decline in their assets’ values. Based on sales volumes nationwide, however, there’s been precious little capitulation thus far. One senior executive at a major title company estimates that its commercial transactions are off more than a third nationally, while its California business is even worse, with volumes down 75-80 percent. For the commercial RE market to recover, either interest rates must revert to their historic lows—how likely is that? —or a lot more capitulation must occur. How much? In our narrow world of supermarket-anchored shopping centers, I’m guessing about 20 percent. With few comparable sales to substantiate that estimate, you might inquire as to its provenance. By proxy. One way to gauge the rough value of privately-held assets is to check their publicly-traded counterparts. Privates may not have to mark to market, but the publics do. Wall Street resets the values of America’s 200 publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) every minute of the day.

HSBC's U.S. arm faces HUD probe over redlining allegations - HSBC's U.S. division is under federal investigation for potentially engaging in discrimination against minority borrowers in six metropolitan areas. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development is reviewing the bank's lending practices in majority Black and Hispanic neighborhoods within the six regions, HSBC disclosed in a regulatory filing Tuesday. The geographic areas where HSBC is facing scrutiny include New York, Seattle and four parts of California — Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oakland and Orange County — according to the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, which filed a complaint that prompted the HUD investigation. After the NCRC filed the complaint, HUD has been investigating whether HSBC violated federal law by engaging in discriminatory lending practices between 2018 and 2021, the bank's filing states. Alan Pyke, an NCRC spokesperson, said in an email that his organization, which advocates for community groups nationwide on financial and investment issues, filed the complaint earlier this year. "Lending redlining is a violation of the Fair Housing Act," Pyke said. The NCRC based its complaint on data suggesting "unfair treatment of disenfranchised communities and individuals," he said. The nonprofit group is focused on working with government agencies to "pursue any remedies they deem appropriate," Pyke said. A spokesperson for HSBC USA declined to comment. HUD did not respond to a request for comment. HSBC's U.S. arm has previously faced scrutiny in connection with fair-lending laws.

Redlining to remediation | American Banker - The Jefferson Avenue commercial district in Buffalo, New York, is anchored by a supermarket. There are dozens of other businesses and services along the 12-block corridor — a couple of bank branches, a library, a coffee shop, gas stations, a small plaza with a dollar store and a primary care clinic and a business incubator for entrepreneurs of color. But Tops Friendly Markets, the only grocery store on Buffalo's vast East Side, is the center of activity. More than just a place to buy food, pick up medications and use an ATM, the store is a communal gathering space in a predominantly Black neighborhood that, for generations, has been segregated, isolated and disenfranchised from the wealthier — and whiter — parts of the city. Which explains how it came to be the site of a mass shooting on a spring day in May of last year. On that Saturday, a gunman, who lived 200 miles away in another part of the state, drove to Jefferson Avenue and went into Tops, and in just a few minutes killed 10 people, injured three and inflicted mass trauma across the community. It is a scenario that has sadly, and repeatedly, played out in other parts of the country that have experienced mass shootings. But this one came with a twist: The gunman's intention was to kill as many Black people as possible. To achieve that, he specifically targeted a ZIP code with one of the highest percentages of Black residents in New York state. All 10 who died that day were Black. "The mere fact that someone can research, 'Where will the greatest number of Black people be … on a Saturday morning,' that's not by chance," said Franchelle Parker, a community organizer and executive director of Open Buffalo, a nonprofit focused on racial, economic and ecological justice. "That's not a mistake. It's a community that's been deeply segregated for decades."

BankThink: The new FHFA credit score rules will make buying a home harder | American Banker - Buying a home is never easy. It's expensive, confusing and loaded with paperwork under the best circumstances. It's even harder these days when the average price of a home is over $400,000 in the U.S., and higher interest rates are making homes that much more expensive. That's why it's so curious that federal regulators might write rules to make homebuying even tougher, however unintentionally, for lower- and middle-income families with modest credit. Currently, banks must look at three different credit reports from the major credit bureaus (Equifax, Experian and TransUnion) when a consumer applies for a conventional mortgage. It's what's known as a "tri-merge" requirement, and it makes sure every homebuyer has three opportunities to prove their creditworthiness and put their best foot forward. One writer for Rocket Mortgage said it's "the most comprehensive look at their borrowers' credit history," and that's a good thing. But last year, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) proposed to move away from the "tri-merge" system and require only two credit reports, not three — or what's known as a "bi-merge" system.That change barely got noticed at all until members of the House Financial Services Committee — Democrats and Republicans — started raising concerns at an FHFA oversight hearing in May. Congressman David Scott, Democrat of Georgia, had this to say: "My concern is that by removing one of the reports from a lender's review, FHFA is potentially leaving out predictive and positive credit history … this action could have serious implications for consumers planning to purchase a home." FHFA no doubt has its reasons. In truth, a bi-merge might be just fine for consumers with perfect credit. But for low- to moderate-income borrowers, it could be a big deal. Let's face it: Sometimes, bills get overlooked. Imagine a consumer with a recent bill in collections. If that collection shows up on one of their three credit reports — and it happens to be the one their bank pulls for a loan — the consumer only has one more opportunity in a bi-merge system to demonstrate their creditworthiness instead of two. The opposite scenario plays out for rent. Not all landlords send a history of on-time rental payments to a credit bureau, which means renters don't always get (literal) credit for paying their rent on time. But what if a consumer lives somewhere that does share those on-time payments with a credit bureau? Under a bi-merge system, homebuyers only get credit for the rental payments if the bank where they're seeking a loan uses the credit report that lists those rental payments. If they pull one of the other two, that homebuyer could be out of luck.

Sen. Sherrod Brown Touts Bill That Would Rein in Large Investors Who Buy Up Single-Family Homes - Cleveland Scene Senator Sherrod Brown is introducing legislation to curb the number of single-family homes in Cincinnati and throughout the country being bought up by large investors.
Brown’s bill, the Stop Predatory Investing Act, would prohibit an investor who obtains 50 or more single-family rental homes after the bill’s enactment from deducting interest or depreciation on those properties. The Stop Predatory Investing Act comes as the country faces a growing housing shortage, especially in terms of affordable housing. According to the National Low Income Housing Coalition, the United States is now facing a shortage of 7.3 million affordable housing units. And in Ohio, there are only 40 units available for every 100 Ohioans seeking affordable housing, according to a recent Gap report from the Coalition on Homelessness and Housing in Ohio.Those seeking to buy single-family, owner-occupied homes, especially first-time buyers, have struggled within the last few years as well, with large investors placing their sights on smaller and more affordable or moderately priced homes. During the pandemic, large, institutional investors dramatically increased their purchases of single-family homes. According to the 2022 State of the Nation’s Housing report from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, from September 2020 to September 2021, the share of investor purchases made by large investors with portfolios of 100 or more properties grew from 14% to 26%. And these investors are able to out-compete families with technology and all-cash offers on their side. In a press release, Brown stated two big investors own more than 12,000 homes in just three Ohio markets and other big investors don’t report the number of homes they own. He says his bill aims to dismantle the core of what makes investing in a large number of single-family homes so profitable by taking away tax breaks these investors don’t need. “In too many communities in Ohio, big investors funded by Wall Street are buying up homes that could have gone to first-time homebuyers. So many families who have worked for years saving to buy a house end up getting out-bid over and over by outside investors, and they can’t afford to compete,” Brown said in the release.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications decreased 3.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 28, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 32 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates edged higher last week, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate’s increase to 6.93 percent and leading to another decline in overall applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The purchase index decreased for the third straight week to its lowest level since the beginning of June and remains 26 percent behind last year’s levels. The decline in purchase activity was driven mainly by weaker conventional purchase application volume, as limited housing inventory and rates still close to 7 percent are crimping affordability for many potential homebuyers. The refinance market continues to feel the impact of these higher rates, and applications trailed last year’s pace by over 30 percent with many homeowners not looking for refinance opportunities.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 6.93 percent from 6.87 percent, with points increasing to 0.68 from 0.65 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 26% year-over-year unadjusted. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). This is the lowest level since early June, and close to the lowest level since the mid-'90s!

Asking Rents Negative Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Negative Year-over-year. A brief excerpt: Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September 2021: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand).The surge in household formation has been confirmed (mostly due to work-from-home), and this also led to the supposition that household formation would slow sharply in 2023 (mostly confirmed) and that asking rents might decrease in 2023 on a year-over-year basis (now flat year-over-year)....Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. Most of these measures are through June 2023, except CoreLogic is through June and Apartment List is through July 2023... The CoreLogic measure is up 3.4% YoY in May, down from 3.7% in April, and down from a peak of 13.9% in April 2022.The Zillow measure is up 4.1% YoY in June, down from 4.9% YoY in May, and down from a peak of 16.5% YoY in March 2022.The ApartmentList measure is down at 0.7% YoY as of July, down from unchanged in June, and down from a peak of 18.1% YoY November 2021....With slow household formation, more supply coming on the market and a rising vacancy rate, rents will be under pressure all year.There is much more in the article.

HVS: Q2 2023 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates; Rental Vacancy Rates Increased YoY The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q2 2023 today. The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020.This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey. This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. National vacancy rates in the second quarter 2023 were 6.3 percent for rental housing and 0.7 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was higher than the rate in the second quarter 2022 (5.6 percent) and not statistically different than the rate in the first quarter 2023 (6.4 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 0.7 percent was lower than the rate in the second quarter 2022 (0.8 percent) and not statistically different than the rate in the first quarter 2023 (0.8 percent). The homeownership rate of 65.9 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2022 (65.8 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2023 (66.0 percent). The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The HVS homeownership rate was declined slightly at 65.9% in Q2, from 66.0% in Q1. The results in Q2 and Q3 2020 were distorted by the pandemic and should be ignored.The HVS homeowner vacancy was decreased to 0.7% in Q2 from 0.8% in Q1.

Construction Spending Increased 0.5% in June -- From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:Construction spending during June 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,938.4 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised May estimate of $1,929.6 billion. The June figure is 3.5 percent above the June 2022 estimate of $1,873.2 billion. Both private and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,516.9 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised May estimate of $1,509.4 billion. ... In June, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $421.4 billion, 0.3 percent above the revised May estimate of $420.2 billion.This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential (red) spending is 11.7% below the recent peak. Non-residential (blue) spending is close to the peak in April 2023.Public construction spending is at a new peak.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is down 10.4%. Non-residential spending is up 20.9% year-over-year. Public spending is up 13.6% year-over-year.This was above consensus expectations for no change in spending and construction spending for the previous two months was revised up, combined.

Biden admin to hike fuel economy standards - The Transportation Department proposed Friday raising fuel efficiency requirements for cars and light trucks by about 20 percent over six years, a move the Biden administration said will help achieve its climate goals while saving drivers money at the gas pump. Under the proposal, the corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standard would rise from 49 mpg in 2026 to 58 mpg in 2032. While that’s not as stringent as EPA’s proposed rule to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the auto sector, Transportation Department officials said it would still be a benefit for consumers and is on solid-enough legal footing that it can survive the inevitable legal challenges. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimated the change will result in a net savings of $18 billion over the rule’s lifetime, cut gasoline consumption by 88 billion gallons through 2050 and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 900 million tons over the same time period. “Better vehicle fuel efficiency means more money in Americans’ pockets and stronger energy security for the entire nation,” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in a news release. The rule’s impact would vary among different types of vehicles. Mileage requirements for passenger cars would rise 2 percent a year from 2027 to 2032, and 4 percent a year for light trucks and SUVs over the same time period. The requirement for heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans would rise 10 percent a year starting in 2030.

American Gasoline Prices Suddenly Soar On Heat Wave - U.S. national average gasoline prices spiked over 16 cents last week, hitting $3.72 per gallon, according to data from GasBuddy, while AAA put the average price per gallon on Monday at $3.757. At the same time, the past week has seen diesel prices increase 15.5 cents to $3.99 per gallon, with AAA reporting a price of $4.036 on Monday. GasBuddy data is compiled from more than 11 million individual price reports from over 150,000 gas stations nationwide. “Gas prices suddenly soared over the last week due to heat-related refinery outages that impacted some of the largest refineries in the country, at a time when summer gasoline demand peaks and as gasoline inventories slid to their lowest July level since 2015,” GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan said in a statement. “In addition, oil prices surged to their highest level in months, rising to over $80 per barrel due to SPR releases coming to an end and concerns over cuts in supply from Saudi Arabia and Russia, the second and third largest oil producers in the world,” De Haan noted, adding that this is the “fastest pace” at which drivers have seen gasoline and diesel prices rise this year. However, these price rises should now start slowing, according to GasBuddy. There is a cautionary note, though, with De Haan saying that “as we get ever closer to the peak of hurricane season, any new issues could easily push the national average over $4 per gallon for the first time in 2023. Drivers may want to brace for potentially higher prices yet.”The jump in gasoline prices comes amid five consecutive weeks of gains for crude oil prices, which are up some 5% over a week ago, gaining another boost from a Friday OPEC+ meeting in which the Saudis indicated plans to expand output cuts into September.Fuel demand data from GasBuddy shows U.S. retail gasoline demand falling 0.9% last week, possibly indicating the peak of summer driving.

Ford Will Lose $4.5 Billion On EVs This Year, Up From $2.1 Billion Last Year -As we first noted last week, Ford is slated to lose $4.5 billion from its EV segment this year, a $1.5 billion larger loss than the company had expected. So far this year, the division has lost $1.8 billion and this year's $4.5 billion loss figure blows away last year's $2.1 billion loss. Ford also announced that its electric F-150 pickup trucks will undergo a price cut, according to Fox.Ford beat earnings on Thursday and reported adjusted EPS of $0.72, beating expectations of $0.54. It posted revenue of $45 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $3.8 billion, above estimates of $3.15 billion. We detailed analyst takes on the report late last week in this piece. The company also raised its guidance, forecasting adjusted EBIT of $11 billion to $12 billion from $9 billion to $11 billion. The company is now guiding for free cash flow of $6.5 billion to $7 billion, from $6 billion. But reality has sunk in about the company's comments regarding its EV production schedule and spending plans. Price cuts in the industry, led by Elon Musk and Tesla, have thrown Ford's production targets into a tailspin and Morgan Stanley noted on Friday morning that "major changes to the EV strategy" could be necessary, according to a wrap up by Bloomberg. Ford now says it is "throttling back" on plans to ramp up EV production, the wrap up said. It blamed the price war for EVs as part of the cause and told shareholders it would need another year to meet its target of 600,000 EVs produced annually. Ford CEO Jim Farley said late last week: "The shift to powerful digital experiences and breakthrough EVs is underway and going to be volatile, so being able to guide customers through and adapt to the pace of adoption are big advantages for us. Ford+ is making us more resilient, efficient and profitable, which you can see in Ford Pro's breakout second-quarter revenue improvement (22%) and EBIT margin (15%)."

Heavy Truck Sales Hit New Record High; Up 18% Year-over-year in July -The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for July today.This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the July 2023 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 582 thousand SAAR in July, up from 538 thousand in June, and up 18% from 491 thousand SAAR in July 2022. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Sales were at a new record high in July.

AAR: July Rail Carloads and Intermodal Decreased Year-over-year -- From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. . The July 4th holiday complicates an analysis of U.S. rail volumes in July, but there were some encouraging signs. For example, the three non-July 4 weeks in July were the three highest-volume intermodal weeks of the year for U.S. railroads. Intermodal in July 2023 was still down 5.5% from July 2022, but that’s the smallest percentage decline for any month so far this year This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and 2022:U.S. railroads originated 875,660 total carloads in July 2023, down 0.6% from July 2022 and their second straight small decline. Carloads averaged 218,915 per week in July 2023, the fewest for any month so far in 2023. July 4th is a big reason for that — the week of July 4th is always one of the lowest-volume weeks of the year. The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2021, 2022 and 2023: (using intermodal or shipping containers): U.S. intermodal volume averaged 241,888 containers and trailers per week in July 2023, down 5.5% from July 2022 and the 23rd decline in the past 24 months. July’s percentage decline was the smallest so far this year. The three non-July 4 weeks in July were the three highest-volume intermodal weeks of the year, which could be a hopeful sign for the future.

ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 46.4% in July - The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 46.4% in July, up from 46.0% in June. The employment index was at 44.4%, down from 48.1% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.3%, up from 45.6%.From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.4% July 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®“The July Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.4 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the 46 percent recorded in June. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates an eighth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47.3 percent, 1.7 percentage points higher than the figure of 45.6 percent recorded in June. The Production Index reading of 48.3 percent is a 1.6-percentage point increase compared to June’s figure of 46.7 percent. The Prices Index registered 42.6 percent, up 0.8 percentage point compared to the June figure of 41.8 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 42.8 percent, 4.1 percentage points higher than the June reading of 38.7 percent. The Employment Index dropped further into contraction, registering 44.4 percent, down 3.7 percentage points from June’s reading of 48.1 percent. This suggests manufacturing contracted in July. This was close to the consensus forecast.

ISM® Services Index Decreases to 52.7% in July --The ISM® Services index was at 52.7%, down from 53.9% last month. The employment index decreased to 50.7%, from 53.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 52.7% July 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business® “In July, the Services PMI® registered 52.7 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than June’s reading of 53.9 percent. The composite index indicated growth in July for the seventh consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December, which was the first contraction since June 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 57.1 percent, a 2.1-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 59.2 percent in June. The New Orders Index expanded in July for the seventh consecutive month after contracting in December for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 55 percent is 0.5 percentage point lower than the June reading of 55.5 percent. “The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 48.1 percent, 0.5 percentage point higher than the 47.6 percent recorded in June. In the last six months, the average reading of 47.6 percent (with a low of 45.8 percent in March) reflects the fastest supplier delivery performance since June 2009, when the index registered 46 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The PMI was below expectations.

BLS: Job Openings Decreased Slightly to 9.6 million in June From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 9.6 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations decreased to 5.9 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.8 million) decreased, while layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.This series started in December 2000.Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for June; the employment report this Friday will be for July. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.Jobs openings decreased in June to 9.58 million from 9.62 million in May. The number of job openings (black) were down 13% year-over-year. Quits were down 9% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

ADP: Private Employment Increased 324,000 in July From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 324,000 Jobs in July; Annual Pay was Up 6.2% Private sector employment increased by 324,000 jobs in July and annual pay was up 6.2 percent year-over-year, according to the July ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”). ... “The economy is doing better than expected and a healthy labor market continues to support household spending,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “We continue to see a slowdown in pay growth without broad-based job loss.” This was above the consensus forecast of 185,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 184 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in July.

July Employment Report: 187 thousand Jobs, 3.5% Unemployment Rate --From the BLS:Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 187,000 in July,, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and wholesale trade. ... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 25,000, from +306,000 to +281,000, and the change for June was revised down by 24,000, from +209,000 to +185,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 49,000 lower than previously reported. The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.Total payrolls increased by 187 thousand in July. Private payrolls increased by 172 thousand, and public payrolls increased 15 thousand. Payrolls for May and June were revised down 49 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In July, the year-over-year change was 3.36 million jobs. Employment was up significantly year-over-year but has slowed to more normal levels of job growth recently. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 62.6% in July, from 62.6% in June. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.4% from 60.3% (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate decreased in July to 3.5% from 3.6% in June. This was slightly below consensus expectations; however, May and June payrollswere revised down by 49,000 combined.

July jobs report: almost across the board deterioration in leading sectors --My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, and whether the leading indicators, particularly manufacturing and construction jobs, as well as the unemployment rate (which leads going into recessions) have meaningfully deteriorated. Almost all of these items did deteriorate in July.Here’s my in depth synopsis.

• 187,000 jobs added, which would be the weakest monthly number since December 2020, except that last month was revised down to 185,000.
• Private sector jobs increased 172,000. Government jobs increased by 15,000
• May was revised lower by -25,000 and June by -24,000, for a total of -110,000. The three month moving average decreased to 218,000, the lowest since January 2021.
• The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report rose by 268,000 jobs. The YoY% gain in this report is +1.9%.
• The U3 unemployment rate declined another -0.1% to 3.5% (still above the 3.4% low last year). The civilian labor force, the denominator in the figure, rose slightly (by 152,000), while the numerator, the number of unemployed, declined by -116,000.
• U6 underemployment rate declined -0.2% back to 6.7%
• Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now declilned -142,000 to 5.247 million, still well above its post-pandemic low of 6.5% set last December.

These are leading sectors for the economy overall, and help us gauge how much the post-pandemic employment boom is shading towards a downturn. These were almost all negative:

• the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, was declined -0.1 to 40.6, equal to its lows earlier this year and down -0.9 hours from February 2022 peak of 41.6 hours.
• Manufacturing jobs declined by -2,000.
• Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs declined -2,200.
• Construction jobs increased by 19,000, in virtually every subsector except for residential construction.
• Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, declined by -5,500. It continues to appear likely that January was the peak for this sector.
• Goods jobs as a whole rose 18,000. These should decline before any recession occurs. They remain up 1.7% YoY, which is a very good pace compared with most of the last 40 years.
• Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining late last year, declined further, by -2,200.
• the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less declined -54,000 to 2,004,000.
• Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.13, or +0.5%, to $28.96, a YoY gain of 4.8%, a 0.1% uptick from its lowest YoY gain since June of 2021 set one month ago.
• the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers increased 0.2%, and is up 1.6% YoY.
• the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose 0.6%, and increased 6.4% YoY, 0.2% higher than its 2+ year low set one month ago, and significantly above the inflation rate, meaning average working class families have more buying power.
• Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, rose only 17,000, -352,000, or -2.1% below their pre-pandemic peak.
• Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments rose 13,400, but remain-64,400, or -0.5% below their pre-pandemic peak.
• Professional and business employment declined -8,000. This is the first decline in this important sector since the end of the pandemic lockdowns. This series had already been decelerating, and is currently up 1.6%, its lowest YoY gain since March 2021.
• The employment population ratio rose 0.1% to 60.4%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 62.6%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.

SUMMARY: This was a soft report, which together with revisions to the last several months, marks another notch downward in deceleration. Almost all of the leading metrics were down. Employment in the entire goods sector has only shown gains due to transportation equipment manufacturing and non-residential construction. The comeback in leisure and hospitality jobs is much fainter. Professional and business jobs - one of the best paying sectors - may be rolling over. That revisions appear to be becoming routinely negative is also not a good sign. The two bright spots in the report were un- and under-employment, which declined (contra the trend I expect them to take, based on the YoY increase in initial jobless claims) and wages. Average wage gains of 0.5% and aggregate wage gains of 0.6% in a month are very good for workers. Almost certainly they will exceed the monthly inflation rate once again. Because of these two things, this was absolutely not anything close to a recessionary report. But the slowdown almost across the board in leading sectors is akin to another compartment of a sinking ship flooding. Still, I do not think we get a recession until goods producing jobs as a whole decline. At their current pace of deceleration, that would be in about 9 months.

Comments on July Employment Report - The headline jobs number in the July employment report was slightly below expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 49,000, combined. The participation rate was unchanged, and the employment population ratio increased slightly, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.5%. Leisure and hospitality gained 17 thousand jobs in July. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 352 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 96% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Construction employment increased 19 thousand and is now 363 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing employment decreased 2 thousand jobs and is now 200 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: July Employment Report: 187 thousand Jobs, 3.5% Unemployment Rate In July, the year-over-year employment change was 3.36 million jobs. Employment Population Ratio, 25 to 54Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 participation rate decreased in July to 83.4% from 83.5% in June, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio was unchanged at 80.9% from 80.9% the previous month. Both are above the pre-pandemic levels and suggest all of the prime age workers have returned to the labor force. Wages CES, Nominal and RealThe graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.4% YoY in July. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in July to 4.00 million from 4.19 million in June. This is below pre-recession levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 6.7% from 6.9% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is below the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Unemployed Over 26 WeeksThis graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.164 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.105 million the previous month. This is at pre-pandemic levels. Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was slightly below consensus expectations; however, May and June payrolls were revised down by 49,000 combined. Job growth has slowed to a somewhat more normal pace, up at a 2.7 million annual rate over the last 6 months. Overall, this was another solid employment report.

Trucker Yellow Shuts Down, to File for Bankruptcy, 3 Years after $700-Million Government Bailout that Stank to High Heaven - by Wolf Richter --Yellow Corporation – formerly YRC Worldwide, the recipient of a $700-million taxpayer bailout in July 2020 that has been condemned in maddening detail by the Congressional Oversight Commission – told laid-off non-union employees on Friday in a memo that the company, including its subsidiaries, is “shutting down regular operations on July 28” and that it is “closing and/or laying off employees at all of its locations, including yours,” and that their employment “will permanently terminate” on July 28, 2023, or within 14 days after the separation date. US taxpayers, in addition to being owed $700 million, also hold 29.6% of the shares of Yellow [YELL], which on Friday closed at 71 cents. The shares will be wiped out in a bankruptcy filing, though they may continue to trade over the counter and maybe get the meme-stock crowd excited for a while.On Friday, sources told The Wall Street Journal that Yellow could file for bankruptcy as soon as this week – it would be the biggest trucking company collapse in the US – and that customers were leaving the carrier. Earlier in the week, it was reported that Yellow had stopped picking up freight.But with freight shipments and freight rates down from the pandemic boom, other trucking companies are already scrambling to pick up the business, and Yellow’s customers are scrambling to ship with other carriers. That transition is already well underway.Yellow, which moved freight for all kinds of businesses, including the biggest retailers Walmart and Amazon, is or was the third-largest less-than-truckload carrier with over 12,000 trucks, and nearly 30,000 employees, including about 22,000 Teamsters members. The Teamsters told union locals in a memo on Friday, cited by the WSJ, to take their tools and personal belongings home to make sure they don’t end up behind locked doors when the company files for bankruptcy, and that the “likelihood that Yellow will survive is increasingly bleak.”The company has long been in trouble. It tried to expand with a series of huge mergers and acquisitions – in 2003, it bought Roadway for about $1 billion; in 2005 it bought USF for $1.4 billion – that left it burdened with debt. As of Q1, it had $1.47 billion in long-term debt.Of this debt, $1.27 billion has to be repaid in 2024: $700 million, owed the US government, is due in September 2024; $567 million, owed a group led by PE firm Apollo Global Management, is due in June 2024.By the end of June, according to a filing with the SEC, it had $100 million in cash, down from $154 million at the end of March and $235 million at the end of December.Both lenders gave the company some breathing room. The Biden administration waived the requirement that the company maintain certain financial targets through the quarter ended June 30; Apollo gave it through September 30.To get the support of potential new lenders, it sought to implement structural and operational changes in the spring to make it more competitive, and tried to get the cooperation from the Teamsters union for those changes. But the union blocked those changes.

Metro Detroit enclave Highland Park cannot pay for water -The poisoning of Flint, Michigan’s drinking water has rightly become symbolic of the brutality of American capitalism, but Flint is only one of many communities facing a water crisis. A raging battle over water and other natural resources is taking place across the US, as Wall Street utilizes the necessities of life to extract every penny possible from the working class. The tiny Detroit enclave of Highland Park, Michigan, is one of these desperate communities. On April 17, the City Council voted to ask Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer for permission to file Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy to keep the water flowing. “If we do not, the citizens’ houses will be levied, and our water can possibly be shut off,” Highland Park Mayor Glenda McDonald said. The crisis in the enclave occurs exactly 10 years after its surrounding district, Detroit, was forced into the largest municipal bankruptcy in US history. The Detroit bankruptcy resulted in a massive payout to the banks and hedge funds, financed through the destruction of workers’ pensions, benefits and jobs, and the sale or partial privatization of city assets, including the water department. The plight of Highland Park—a parcel of land less than three square miles which sits in the middle of Detroit (143 square miles) that survives on Detroit’s services, sends its children to Detroit schools and is wholly tied to Detroit—refutes the lying claim that the bankruptcy “fixed” the crisis for anyone but wealthy bondholders and bankers. Highland Park, with a population of under 9,000 people, suffers the same degrading poverty as much of Detroit and ranks among the most impoverished municipalities in the country. It has a water debt of between $24-58 million and an income of only $9 million annually from property taxes. “How is Highland Park going to pay—with Monopoly money?” commented Adolph Mongo, a Detroit political consultant.

Houston ISD to convert libraries into disciplinary centers -- The Houston Independent School District, the largest public school system in Texas, will convert libraries into disciplinary centers.New Superintendent Mike Miles, who was tapped to head the school district after the Texas government took it over this spring, announced the change earlier this summer, KTRK reported.Miles has created a special subsect of Houston ISD, known as the New Education System, according to its website. The NES is a listing of "priority schools" that will receive extra resources. For example, teachers in such schools will receive starting salaries of $81,400 and a $10,000 stipend along with performance incentives, according to a news release in June. The minimum pay for new teachers in the state of Texas is $33,660. The change would eliminate librarian and media specialist positions at the 28 underperforming schools originally targeted to be overhauled under the NES program. Officials would also review 57 additional schools that opted into NES on a case-by-case basis. A petition has since been started to prevent the transformation of libraries into disciplinary centers."Libraries play an essential role in promoting literacy and critical thinking, providing a space where students can explore new ideas, expand their horizons, and develop into well-rounded individuals," the petition reads."Transforming these spaces into detention centers not only dilutes their educational significance but also perpetuates negative stereotypes about learning, hindering the positive impact libraries can have on students' lives." Earlier this month, the school district announced it would also hire more police officers and increase salaries and sign-on bonuses for law enforcement at the schools. The salary was increased for an 11-month officer to $54,000 and for a 12-month officer to $63,800 with annual bonuses. Beyond the changes at Houston's schools, Miles has received criticism for alleged unprofessionalism. The superintendent, who took over the district in June, missed the public comment section of a board meeting, leading a crowd of teachers and parents to give him "an earful," KHOU reported. The Texas Education Agency, which reports to Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, announced the intervention earlier this year and said it would abide by state law. Democrats view the move as a hostile takeover to push the state toward a charter school-based system. Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner previously called the takeover "troubling" and said "it's not unexpected."

Scrubbing air in NJ schools - A program to distribute air purifiers to help New Jersey reopen schools now serves a dual purpose — prevent the spread of COVID-19 and improve indoor air quality as smoke from Canadian wildfires reaches the Garden State. The program is a form of harm reduction intended to keep children safe in school. Distributing air purifiers and filters is one way to achieve that, school and health officials say, by preventing health conditions like asthma from worsening. Asthma is one of the main reasons New Jersey students miss school, according to research conducted across the state. The New Jersey Department of Health launched the program in March to help protect students from respiratory illnesses and airborne irritants, such as dust and mold. Since its launch, the School HEPA Distribution Program has issued about 59,000 HEPA units and more than 230,000 replacement filter sets to K-12 schools and early childhood education centers, the Department of Health reports. HEPA (high efficiency particulate air) filters remove more than 99% of airborne particles from an indoor space when used correctly. Corey Metzger, a member of the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers, said this makes them very effective at mitigating COVID-19 transmission. “The goal of the program is to provide layered protection from respiratory illness and address other air-born irritants such as dust, mold and pollen. Although we began the program with COVID-19 in mind it has proven especially timely right now,” Health Commissioner Judy Persichilli said in June. Wildfire smoke became a problem for schools at the end of the 2022-2023 school year, forcing some schools to close or cancel recess. The smoke could continue to be a problem in the coming school year if the fires keep burning. Khalil Savary, a pediatric pulmonologist with several hospital affiliations in New Jersey, said the wildfires brought HEPA filters back to the forefront, even as people are growing less concerned about COVID-19. HEPA filters are effective at filtering out wildfire smoke, which is another form of particulate matter. However, they are not effective at removing gaseous contaminants and odors, Metzger said.

Meet the salesmen who want to ‘harden’ Ohio schools against mass shootings – As Gov. Mike DeWine addressed a conference of local officials organized to prepare against a mass shooting in Ohio schools, a few dozen men sat at booths just outside promising their bullet resistant glass, shot spotting technology, and armed teacher training could prevent or at least slow down the next one.The intersection of capitalism and the American epidemic of mass violence in schools collided in the vendor hall of the “Ohio School Safety Summit” last Tuesday at the Columbus Convention Center. Companies from all over the U.S. peddled technological, mechanical and surveillant responses to potential carnage.They sell a measure of safety to school officials, politicians and parents, all terrified of their children’s schools becoming targets. There have been 386 school shootings in the U.S. since the Columbine High School shooting of 1999, according to a Washington Post count. Hundreds of students and staff members have died or been injured in those shootings; thousands have been exposed to the violence. The Post tracked 14 school shootings in Ohio in that time.Outside the conference Tuesday stood TG Cook, a former police officer who now sells “comprehensive school lockdown systems” with The Lockout Company, of Michigan. He explained that tactical minds consider schools to be “soft” targets in that they’re unlocked most the day.“We’ve designed them to be comfortable learning environments, which is contrary to safe places sometimes,” he said. “I walk into a number of schools where they have beautiful buildings full of glass but no place for anybody to be safe. That would be a soft target.”He stood in front of an array of “bullet resistant” ballistic shields, special placards designed to identify rooms or illuminate hallways when shone with a police flashlight, and a tablet device that can control all entry and exit points of a school. The idea is students or faculty, in the event of a shooting, can easily trigger a five-pound plate to barricade a door. That door can then withstand up to 16,000 pounds of pressure without giving, according to the company. Within three seconds, similar plates fall, steeling doorways schoolwide. Within eight seconds, dispatchers are notified. The company provides police with color-coded maps and a sense of what’s happening in the school, whose doors can be opened via the tablet.Cook said the company is already in schools around Ohio. It costs about $1,800 per classroom. The company gives recommendations but works with schools’ budgets and helps coordinate grants. The goal, he said, is to protect the kids.

Florida bans AP psych, pointing to lessons on gender, sexuality - The College Board announced Thursday that Florida has banned Advanced Placement (AP) Psychology from its schools over lessons pertaining to gender identity and sexual orientation. The course was nixed after Florida passed a law earlier this year stating sexual orientation and gender identity could not be taught in K-12 schools. The AP Psychology curriculum asks students to “describe how sex and gender influence socialization and other aspects of development,” which the College Board noted has been in the class for 30 years. Florida asked the College Board to go over any classes it offers and omit lessons that conflict with its new law, but the company has refused. “We have heard from teachers across Florida who are heartbroken that they are being forced to drop AP and instead teach alternatives that have been deemed legal because the courses exclude these topics,” the company said in its statement. The Hill has reached out to Florida’s Department of Education for comment. The College Board said Florida school districts were told they could teach AP Psychology if it excluded the lessons on sexual orientation and gender identity, but the company says it would no longer give credit for the course. “As we shared in June, we cannot modify AP Psychology in response to regulations that would censor college-level standards for credit, placement, and career readiness. Our policy remains unchanged. Any course that censors required course content cannot be labeled ‘AP’ or ‘Advanced Placement,’ and the ‘AP Psychology’ designation cannot be utilized on student transcripts,” the College Board said.

Florida high schoolers can no longer take AP psychology because the course includes lessons on sexual orientation and gender identity: Furious Randi Weingarten brands Ron DeSantis a 'global embarrassment' -- Students in Florida can no longer study for Advanced Placement (AP) psychology, after the group which administers the test withdrew it, saying the course could not be modified to fit the state's new laws against discussions of LGBTQ issues in class.The College Board, which oversees tests such as the SAT, said they had been asked by Florida's authorities to sign an 'assurance document' that AP psychology, and other AP courses, met Florida laws and rules.In March 2022, Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law 'Don't Say Gay', which forbids public school teachers from discussion of sexual orientation or gender identity in class.The bill was initially only through third grade, but in April this year the Board of Education approved a ban on classroom instruction about sexual orientation and gender identity in all grades, at the request of DeSantis. In May, Florida asked the College Board to review all its courses to make sure they comply with Florida law. The College Board said they would not sign Florida's 'assurance document', because it would mean having to drop the topics of sexual orientation and gender identity in their college-level psychology course. As a result, it advised school districts not to make it part of their schedule for the coming school year.In January, Florida banned AP African American Studies, arguing the class indoctrinates students to 'a political agenda.''As submitted, the course is a vehicle for a political agenda and leaves large, ambiguous gaps that can be filled with additional ideological material, which we will not allow,' said Bryan Griffin, DeSantis' press secretary.Florida insisted on Thursday that they had not banned AP psychology, and accused the College Board of 'playing games'.But multiple school districts were left scrambling to try and find replacement classes and help ambitious high school students who had intended on taking the college-level course.Last year, 28,000 Florida students took AP psychology, and the course was offered at 562 different schools.

High school boys are trending conservative --A popular narrative suggests young people are liberal and getting more liberal. Thus, social media buzzed when a chart surfaced in spring that seemed to suggest 12th-grade boys had become overwhelmingly conservative. As with many Reddit posts and viral tweets, the truth was more complicated. But the numbers do say this: Twelfth-grade boys are nearly twice as likely to identify as conservative versus liberal, according to a respected federal survey of American youth. In annual surveys over the last three years, roughly one-quarter of high school seniors self-identified as conservative or “very conservative” on the Monitoring the Future survey, a scholarly endeavor that dates to the 1970s. Only 13 percent of boys identified as liberal or very liberal in those years. The figures represent a striking shift in the political views of boys. As recently as the late 2000s, liberal boys occasionally outnumbered conservatives. Back in the Carter era, both boys and girls leaned liberal. Nowadays, it is girls who are drifting to the left. The share of 12th-grade girls who identified as liberal rose from 19 percent in 2012 to 30 percent in 2022. Only 12 percent of girls identified as conservative in last year’s survey, administered by the University of Michigan. Young women, too, are trending liberal. Women ages 18 to 29 are more likely to identify as liberal now than at any time in the past two decades, according to Gallup surveys. Young women are almost twice as likely as young men to claim the liberal tag, a widening gender gap in political beliefs. The political leanings of young men have changed little over the past two decades, according to an analysis by the Survey Center on American Life. Last year, 43 percent of young men identified as moderate, 31 percent as conservative and 24 percent as liberal. Twenty years earlier, the numbers were more or less the same. But the leftward drift of young women alone has sufficed to move the needle on young adults as a whole. Generation Z favors liberalism over conservatism by a 48-to-33 margin, according to NBC News polling from 2022. Ten years earlier, young adults split evenly between the two political camps. The rightward drift of high school boys is comparatively subtle. Indeed, when it comes to politics, most boys seem reluctant to pick a side. In the 2022 Monitoring the Future survey, the largest group of senior boys, more than two-fifths, claimed no politics at all, answering the liberal-conservative question with “none of the above” or “I don’t know.” Nearly one-fifth identified as moderate. Only 36 percent selected liberal or conservative as an ideology, and only there did the trend emerge.

New income-driven student loan repayment plan available to borrowers - The Department of Education released a beta website Monday for the Biden administration’s new income-driven student loan repayment plan, known as the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan. “A beta version of the updated [income-driven repayment (IDR)] application is now available and includes the option to enroll in the new SAVE Plan — the most affordable repayment plan yet,” the department said on the site. Previously, the administration had numerous IDR options for borrowers, which advocates have said led to a confusing system for borrowers. The new SAVE plan will replace the Revised Pay As You Earn Repayment (REPAYE) plan, one of the most widely used of the four IDR options available to borrowers. The other three IDR plans will be phased out or limited by the department. The SAVE plan will make three significant changes this year compared to the REPAYE option. The first raises the income exemption from 150 percent above the poverty line to 225 percent, meaning a single person earning less than $32,800 would have $0 monthly payments under the plan. The plan also won’t allow unpaid interest to grow if a person is making their monthly student loan payments. Lastly, spousal income for borrowers who are married and file separately will not be included. The website — first reported by CNN — shows a demo of the application process, where some information, such as tax returns, can be automatically inserted due to information the government has on file for a borrower. “When fully live, millions of borrowers will be able to complete the new application in ten minutes or less and will never have to reapply,” a Department of Education official said. “The new IDR auto-recertification feature will prevent borrowers from the risk of missing their annual IDR recertification date, which has caused millions of borrowers each year to delay their time toward forgiveness and incur additional interest charges.”

Lawsuit filed to stop new student loan income-driven repayment plan The New Civil Liberties Alliance (NCLA) filed a lawsuit Friday against the Biden administration’s new student loan income-driven repayment (IDR) plan. The lawsuit comes after the Department of Education launched a beta website this week for the Saving on Valuable Education (SAVE) application, the new IDR plan the White House has dubbed the “most generous” for student borrowers. The NCLA, on behalf of the Cato Institute and the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, filed a suit in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan to stop the implementation of this plan. The NCLA is arguing that the new IDR plan violates the Constitution’s Appropriations Clause, which allows Congress to be in charge of what debt owed to the Treasury can be canceled. Under the SAVE plan, loan forgiveness would come quicker for many borrowers. For one, the plan allows borrower whose student loan has an original principal balance of $12,000 or less to get forgiveness after 10 years of payments. It also allows certain periods of deferment and forbearance to count toward the time needed to get full forgiveness on an individual’s loan. “In the Nebraska case, the Supreme Court struck down the Department of Education’s brazen attempt to pull a billion-dollar ‘elephant’ out of a statutory ‘mousehole.’ This time the Department’s loan-cancellation scheme does not even pretend to have a statutory ‘mousehole,'” said Sheng Li, Litigation Counsel for NCLA. “The [Public Service Loan Forgiveness] and IDR statutes require borrowers to make a certain number of monthly payments before earning forgiveness. By trying to count non-payments as payments, the strategy seems to be to cancel $39 billion faster than a court can review and stop this blatantly unlawful act,” Li continued. Along with the $39 billion the NCLA says the department could cancel almost immediately, it would allow debt to be canceled for 2.8 million more IDR borrowers in the future. “Instead of promulgating the plan through the required notice-and-comment and negotiated rulemaking process under the Administrative Procedure Act, the Department simply issued a press release that did not identify any laws to justify it,” the NCLA wrote.The challenge to the SAVE plan comes two months before student loan borrowers will be forced back into repayment after the three-year COVID-19 student loan pause.

More Americans say they can never retire - A growing share of working Americans don’t think they will ever retire, recent surveys suggest. Retirement is a time-honored life stage and a near-universal expectation in working America. Yet, a comfortable retirement requires savings, and many workers fear they don’t have enough. In a July poll conducted jointly by Axios and Ipsos, 29 percent of workers under 55 answered a retirement query with, “I don’t think I will ever retire.” Asked why not, three-quarters of the never-retire group said they could not afford to stop working. A smaller share said they didn’t want to. “How to make the dollars and cents of retirement work is a constant balancing act for those who are retired and Americans hoping to reach that milestone one day,” said Clifford Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs. Another survey, from the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI), found that one-third of workers now expect to retire at 70 or later, or never. A third report, from the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, found that 40 percent of Generation X workers, and nearly half of boomers, expect to retire after 70, or not at all. Retirement fears seem to be rising. In the EBRI survey, the share of workers planning to delay retirement rose to 33 percent in 2023 from 29 percent in 2022 and 26 percent in 2021. The summer of 2023 might seem an odd moment for Americans to feel short of retirement funds. Nearly three-quarters of all 401(k) money sits in stocks, and the stock market is booming, although this week has been rocky. But the full story of American retirement planning is more complicated. One big reason workers are worrying about retirement is inflation, which surged in 2021 and 2022 after many years of relatively flat prices. Another factor is diminished retirement savings. The average 401(k) lost about 20 percent of its value in 2022, according to investment-house data. Both stocks and bonds plunged in 2022. That’s not supposed to happen: When stocks fall, bonds usually rise, and vice-versa. Last year was a bizarre outlier, triggered by the inflation crisis and the corrective campaign of federal interest-rate hikes. The nation’s retirement accounts are recovering, but they are not fully healed. The average IRAheld $109,000 in the first quarter of this year, down from $127,000 at the same time last year, according to Fidelity Investments. More than two-fifths of baby boomers in the 55-64 age group have no retirement savings, Census data show. Many work for small companies that don’t offer retirement savings, or work for themselves, or lack the income to put money away. The median retirement savings account in that age range has a balance of $71,168, according to a NerdWallet analysis.

Early-stage cancer diagnoses dropped during first months of COVID-19 -- A study yesterday in The Lancet Oncology shows early-stage cancer diagnoses dropped by half in April 2020 and significantly throughout the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. This is the largest study to date concerning the pandemic and cancer diagnoses.The study identified first primary malignant cancer diagnoses from the US National Cancer Databases, with researchers identifying 2,404,050 adults newly diagnosed as having cancer, including 830,528 in 2018, 849,290 in 2019, and 724,232 in 2020. The main study outcome was the change in the number and the change in the stage distribution of new cancer diagnoses from 2019 to 2020, the authors said.The mean age of patients was 63.5 years, and 75.5% were non-Hispanic White. Pre-pandemic, the monthly number of new cancer diagnoses remained consistently around 70,000 per month until March, 2020, when the pandemic started. The fewest diagnoses was in April 2020 (36,679), with the number returning to a near pre-pandemic level by June 2020.Stage 1 diagnoses saw the biggest change; in April of 2018 and 2019, 27,110 and 29,165 new diagnoses were made, compared with just 11,525 in April 2020, a reduction of 50% to 60%.The authors found lower odds of being diagnosed as having stage 1 disease in 2020 than in 2019 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.946; 95% conference interval [CI], 0.939 to 0.952]) compared with a diagnosis for a stage 2 or higher cancer. This pattern was observed in most cancer types and sociodemographic groups, although it was most prominent among Hispanic patients, the authors said.

COVID-19 hospitalizations, rates on Long Island double in the past month - COVID-19 infection rates and hospitalizations on Long Island have doubled in the past month, although far fewer people are getting severely ill and dying from the disease than last summer and at the beginning of the year, state data shows. Increased travel may be one factor in a rise of COVID cases, said Stephanie Silvera, an epidemiologist and professor of public health at Montclair State University in New Jersey.

COVID hospitalizations are on the rise, could signal ‘late summer wave,’ says the CDC -- The number of COVID-19 hospitalizations is rising this summer in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Hospitalizations of people with the virus are up 10%, per CDC data — the sharpest increase since December 2022. More than 7,100 patients with COVID were hospitalized in the week of July 15, up from 6,444 the prior week. COVID-related emergency room visits are also on the rise, comprising 0.73% of visits as of July 21, compared to 0.49% a month prior. "After roughly six, seven months of steady declines, things are starting to tick back up again," Dr. Brendan Jackson, the CDC's COVID-19 incident manager in Atlanta, Georgia, told NPR this week. "We've seen the early indicators go up for the past several weeks," he continued. "And just this week, for the first time in a long time, we've seen hospitalizations tick up as well." He added, "This could be the start of a late summer wave." The spikes have been most prominent in the Southeast, Jackson said. "Early indicators of COVID-19 activity (emergency department visits, test positivity and wastewater levels) preceded an increase in hospitalizations seen this past week," CDC spokesperson Kathleen Conley said in a statement. Despite the uptick, she confirmed that COVID rates are still at "near-historic lows" in the U.S. The surge in summer cases doesn’t mean the CDC plans to recommend a return to masking, he said. More concerning are the "mutagenic" subvariants emerging in Asia, the doctor said. "For most people, these early signs don't need to mean much," Jackson said. Dr. Marc Siegel, professor of medicine at NYU Langone Medical Center and a Fox News medical contributor, is skeptical that a summer surge is underway. "Ordinarily, I would pay careful attention to wastewater analysis, but given the amount of immunity still around from prior infection and vaccination — coupled with the fact that we are still within the Omicron family with most infections remaining mild and hospitalizations showing only a slight uptick — I don't see this as a harbinger of another surge," he told Fox News Digital. "These are just embers of a fire not completely out." More concerning to Siegel are the "mutagenic" subvariants emerging in Asia, the doctor said. As a result, said Siegel, "I am likely going to recommend the new XBB subvariant booster in the fall, especially for those in high-risk groups who haven't had a recent infection or vaccine."

Has COVID-19 become a summer illness? Cases and hospitalizations are on the rise again - COVID rates in the U.S. have risen for the fourth summer in a row, elevating hospitalization rates and adding more weight to the argument that the virus has found summer seasonality, in addition to winter. Nationally, COVID wastewater levels are similar to that of every pandemic summer except for 2022, when the world saw a spike due to Omicron variant BA.5. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s data tracker shows a 10.3% rise in hospitalizations July 9 to 15, the most recent period for which data is available. Deaths, however, are holding steady.COVID wastewater levels are on the rise in the Houston area, and positive tests in the community have been elevated since late June, Dr. Michael Chang, pediatric infectious disease specialist at Children’s Memorial Hermann Hospital and UTHealth, tells Fortune.But so far, that hasn’t translated into a significant increase in kids admitted to his hospital for COVID, he said. Still, he adds, “our colleagues in the city have reported some increased pediatric hospitalizations.” And his system’s adult hospitals have seen an increase in COVID hospitalizations since the end of June. Cases are trending steadily upward in the southern region of the U.S., of which Texas is a part, according to BioBot Analytics, which monitors COVID wastewater levels for the federal government. They’re also trending steadily upward in the Northeast, and more sharply upward in the West and Midwest, though levels in both still lag the rest of the country. Chang attributes this summer’s elevated level of COVID cases to increased indoor activities driven by heat and people seeking air conditioning. Similarly, winter spikes are attributable to increased indoor activities driven by cold and people seeking heat. Summer travel is likely also contributing, he said. Another factor: waning immunity. Antibody immunity from both infection and vaccination lasts roughly three to six months. Those who were infected last winter are likely more susceptible to the virus again. While new XBB.1.5 COVID boosters are expected this fall, the variant is “on its way out,” Raj Rajnarayanan—assistant dean of research and associate professor at the New York Institute of Technology campus in Jonesboro, Ark., and a top COVID-variant tracker—told Fortune. “By the time the booster hits the market, there won’t be any XBB.1.5 in circulation,” he said, referencing the strain known as Kraken that grew rapidly last winter. It made up an estimated 12% of U.S. cases last week.The new jabs should still be useful, Rajnarayanan said, as the XBB.1.5 variant holds a good deal of similarities to top variants in circulation now.But it’s hard to say how the booster will hold up to the new variants the world is seeing by the time it rolls out, he added.

What the new Covid-19 surge really means - Covid-19 hospitalizations are rising for the first time since the beginning of 2023, but public health experts and the White House appear confident the U.S. is well-positioned to manage the virus heading into the fall. It is more difficult than earlier in the pandemic to know how many infections are circulating in the U.S. due to the end of state data reporting requirements that were tied to the public health emergency, which ended in May. But a 10.3 percent increase in weekly Covid-19 hospital admissions in mid-July to 7,109 is a reminder that the virus is still a public health challenge. The Biden administration has been seeking to portray a sense of victory over the pandemic. They eliminated the position of the top Covid-19 White House official, ended the public health emergency and continue to convince people that the virus no longer presents the threat it did when the president took office. But the White House said the uptick is not unexpected and its Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy and HHS are monitoring the virus. “The Biden-Harris Administration has made historic progress on our nation’s ability to manage COVID-19 so that it no longer meaningfully disrupts the way we live our lives,” White House spokesperson Kelly Scully told POLITICO in an email. The small rise in cases should not be heralded as a major development, said Brett Giroir, who served as Donald Trump’s Covid-19 testing czar. And vaccine-makers are preparing to roll out new shots this fall. “To some extent, I’m thinking of this as the new normal,” Association of Public Health Laboratories CEO Scott Becker said. “We never expected variants to just disappear, so the virus is doing what viruses do. We’re watching all of this in order to better be prepared for any fall surge in respiratory diseases.” Here’s what you need to know about the Covid case uptick:

COVID-19 wastewater levels have doubled in the US over the past 5 weeks - - On Thursday, Biobot Analytics released its latest wastewater estimates, finding that over the last five weeks levels of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage water has doubled in the United States. These data underscore that the latest summer surge of COVID-19 has been well underway for some time, despite the near-total blackout by capitalist politicians and the corporate media. Given the complete lack of data on actual infections across the country, wastewater is now the only reliable means of tracking viral transmission. In a tweet by World Socialist Web Site writer Andre Damon, which has gone viral and been viewed by nearly 1 million people, he noted, “The public is being told nothing by a government and media intent on covering up this ongoing disaster.”According to Biobot, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and founded by an interdisciplinary group of biologists and urban studies researchers, genomic sequencing of wastewater samples demonstrate that every region of the US is presently seeing a rise in viral particles in wastewater, with the Midwest and West now playing catch-up with the Northeast and South, where the surge initially began.This week’s announcement by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that there has been a sudden spike in the number of hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits for COVID-19 only gives clinical validity to the use of wastewater data. Over the past week, the number of overall COVID-19 hospital admissions has risen roughly 10 percent, while emergency room visits for COVID-19 have increased 50 percent.Data scientist JP Weiland, who has been providing critical modeling analysis on the state of the pandemic in the US, recently updated his graphs, indicating that the current wastewater levels correspond to roughly 366,000 daily COVID-19 infections. Additionally, he noted that the trend for rising hospital admissions for COVID-19 would continue well past August. Despite these developments, the public has yet to be informed of the latest surge by the Biden administration, while the media continues to dutifully play accomplice to the cover-up, either remaining silent on the topic or minimizing the potential implications of allowing the virus to repeatedly rip through society.

Sen. Mitt Romney says nation needs more wastewater surveillance - Wastewater surveillance for COVID-19 isn’t ending anytime soon. The Utah Department of Health and Human Services continues to rely on what’s flushed down the toilet from some 34 sewage treatment plants across the state to track the spread of the still-deadly virus.Now, additional support could be coming from Washington, D.C., for programs in Utah and around the country that are part of the National Wastewater Surveillance System, launched by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention after the pandemic started in 2020.Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, negotiated the inclusion of his recently introduced legislation intended to strengthen and expand the nation’s wastewater surveillance into a broader pandemic preparedness bill that won committee approval last week.“This provision will bolster Utah’s already sophisticated wastewater monitoring technology by ensuring it receives the funding needed to continue to invest in new research and technology,” Romney’s office said in a news release.Nathan LaCross, manager of the state’s wastewater surveillance program, said it was “gratifying” to see the Senate take a “very important step” toward further developing a detection system that can be used for many other pathogens.When it comes to COVID-19, LaCross said wastewater monitoring is “one of the relatively few sources of reliable data available these days,” given the “drastic downturn” in the number of Utahns getting tested for the virus.LaCross, an epidemiologist, said he understands why many Utahns may have “that feeling that it’s behind us. Our response has changed.” But, he added, that doesn’t mean the virus is going away.The latest weekly numbers for Utah posted Thursday on the state’s coronavirus.utah.gov website show about a 15% increase in the seven-day average of cases, to just under 48 statewide, and a single death, a Salt Lake County man between 65 and 84 years old.At the same time, the amount of virus detected through wastewater surveillance is increasing at 20% of the sewage treatment plants where samples are collected, and there were elevated levels of the virus at four sites.

New York state health department reports uptick in COVID-19 cases - CBS New York -- There's an uptick in COVID-19 cases in New York. The latest data from the state's health department, released Wednesday, shows hospital admissions are up 22% compared with the previous week. That's more than 100 admissions per day. Reported cases are also up 55% from the week before. That's an average of 824 reported cases per day across the state. Health officials are asking New Yorkers to be cautious and seek treatment options if necessary.

Coronavirus Hospitalizations Tick Up, Prompting Questions About the Next COVID-19 Wave - It’s the fourth summer with COVID-19 and it’s one marked by periods of record travel – likely an indicator that after spending years in a pandemic, a significant number of Americans are ready and willing to get back to normal. But the past few weeks saw an increase in coronavirus metrics that can provide an early warning of COVID-19 spread like emergency department visits, wastewater surveillance and test positivity. And now, coronavirus hospitalizations are on the rise, too. “The U.S. has experienced increases in COVID-19 during the past three summers, so it’s not surprising to see an uptick,” a spokesman for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a statement to U.S. News. But he noted that “U.S. COVID-19 rates are still near historic lows after seven months of steady declines.” The increase in hospitalizations is undoubtedly quite small and a similar uptick in deaths, which tends to lag behind hospitalizations, has not yet materialized. But it’s still the largest increase since December. Experts agreed that the slight summer uptick isn’t a shock but that it should serve as a wake-up call to treat COVID-19 seriously before winter rolls around. “It's a reminder for all of us that we aren’t out of the woods yet,” says Ali Mokdad, an epidemiologist with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. “This virus is still around.” The slight uptick is due to waning immunity from previous infections and vaccinations paired with record travel this summer and excessive, lingering heat that has forced many indoors, according to Mokdad. The CDC no longer tracks COVID-19 cases, instead focusing on deaths and hospitalizations. Although the true extent of infections right now can’t be known, there is likely a lot of virus currently circulating in the U.S., Mokdad says. However, many infections are likely going unnoticed because they are very mild or asymptomatic and don’t prompt testing. “When you see hospitalizations going up, there are a lot of infections in the community,” Mokdad says.

Covid cases: Hospitalizations are rising, is the virus surging? -Signs indicate that Covid is making a comeback after months of falling cases. But does the United States need to brace itself for a surge?Experts told NBC News that while cases are going up, they are not currently expecting a huge spike in Covid and wouldn’t advise people to change their behavior for now.Hospitalizations have been trending upward since the beginning of July — the first increase seen this year, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The agency reported 8,035 new hospital admissions for the week ending July 22, a 12.1% increase compared to the week prior, though still one of the lowest points in the pandemic. At the same time last year, for comparison, that number was more than 44,000.“The U.S. has experienced increases in COVID-19 during the last three summers, so it’s not surprising to see an uptick after a long period of declining rates,” CDC spokesperson Kathleen Conley said in an email.Dr. Bernard Camins, medical director for infection prevention at the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City, said his hospital is seeing about 40 Covid patients a day, compared with about 10 per day earlier in the summer. “The good news is that we’re not seeing patients who are that sick,” he said. About 5% of the patients hospitalized for Covid are sick enough to need intensive care treatment, which is a “very small number,” he said. Camins said there’s been no change in the people who are most at risk for severe illness: older adults, those with medical conditions such as diabetes or heart or lung disease, and those who are immunocompromised. Hospitalization rates have typically been higher in unvaccinated people, Conley said, though most Americans have some form of immunity from past infection, vaccination or both.There also hasn’t been an increase in Covid-related deaths, which tends to lag behind a rise in hospitalizations. But deaths might not go up if people get prompt treatment with Paxlovid or other antivirals, Camins said.

COVID summer surge: These areas just saw hospitalizations triple - – A summer surge in COVID-19 cases has spiked the number of people in the hospital with serious complications from the virus. Nationwide, COVID-related hospitalizations are up 12% in the last week of available data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But in some U.S. counties, the situation is dramatically worse. The CDC considers COVID-19 hospitalizations to be “medium” in 17 counties around the country. That means between 10 and 19.9 people are hospitalized with the virus for every 100,000 residents.In two places in Texas, Navarro and Freestone counties, hospitalizations were up 250% in a single week – meaning they more than tripled. Fourteen new people were admitted in the past week, but because of their relatively small populations, that’s a “high” rate of people going to the hospital, according to the CDC classification. Other areas of concern are:

• Southeast Texas (Presidio, Brewster and Jeff Davis counties): hospitalizations up 100% in one week
• Northeastern Oregon (Wallowa, Union and Baker counties)
• Central Oklahoma (Seminole, Hughes, Pontotoc and Coal counties): hospitalizations jumped 450%
• Hawaii County: hospitalizations up 64%
• Southern Nebraska (Adams, Clay, Webster and Nuckolls counties): hospitalizations up 125%
• Mohave County, Arizona: hospitalizations elevated, but dropping week over week
• Colquitt County, Georgia: hospitalizations up 67%

Nationwide, there were an additional 8,035 people admitted to the hospital with COVID-19, the CDC reports. This is the biggest spike in COVID hospitalizations since last winter, according to The Hill.The CDC does not track infections anymore, meaning hospitalizations are one of the only data clues we have to understand how fast the virus is spreading and where. Jill Rosenthal, director of public health policy at the Center for American Progress, told The Hill summer surges of COVID-19 may be the new norm. “We have had a summer wave of COVID for the last few summers and so it’s not surprising to see an increase in COVID right now.” While winter means more people socialize indoors (known to accelerate the spread of the coronavirus), summer means more people are traveling and socializing overall. Plus, in hot parts of the country, people are more likely to socialize and spend time in the air-conditioned indoors than they are to be outside.

Studies find low COVID spread in Massachusetts schools, opposite in Italy -Two new studies detail COVID-19 transmission in schools, with one finding a low secondary attack rate during two periods in Massachusetts school districts and another tying nearly half of student and staff infections to school contacts in Italy. A Massachusetts General Hospital–led team evaluated the prevalence of and risk factors for school-related COVID-19 spread in 10 K-12 state school districts during fall 2020/spring 2021 (F20/S21) and fall 2021 (F21). The research was published today in JAMA Health Forum. In F20/S21, 8 school districts with 70 schools and more than 33,000 students reported 435 index infections (151 staff, 216 students, and 68 unknown) with 1,771 school-based contacts (278 staff, 1,492 students, and 1 unknown). Of all contacts, 74.9% underwent testing, and 2.9% of them tested positive for COVID-19.Among the 39 positive contacts, 25.6% had clear non-school exposures and were excluded from the base-case secondary attack rate (SAR; rate of spread) calculations, and 74.4% were deemed possible or probable school-associated transmissions, for a SAR of 2.2% (lower bound, 1.6%; upper bound, 26.7%). By district, the SAR ranged from 0% to 11.9%.In F21, 5 districts with 34 schools and more than 18,000 students reported 309 index cases (37 staff, 207 students, and 65 unknown) with 1,673 school-based contacts (107 staff and 1,566 students).Of the 1,673 contacts, 95.3% underwent testing, and 2.8% tested positive. Among the 46 positive contacts, 2 had clear non-school exposures and were excluded from the base-case SAR calculations. Forty-four were considered possible or probable school-linked transmissions, resulting in a school-associated SAR of 2.8% (lower bound, 2.6%; upper bound, 7.4%). By district, the SAR ranged from 0% to 8.0%.A multivariable analysis showed that, in F20/S21, wearing a mask was tied to a lower likelihood of spread than with not wearing a mask (odds radio [OR], 0.12). In F20/S21, the unadjusted SAR was significantly higher if the exposure occurred at lunch, both the index case and contact didn’t wear masks, and the index case had been tested because of an in-school exposure. In F21, the unadjusted SAR was significantly higher if the contact or index case was an elementary school student, the exposure occurred in the classroom, the contact didn't participate in a test-to-stay program (eg, opted for quarantine), the contact was partially vaccinated or unvaccinated, and the index case was unvaccinated. In F21, classroom exposure versus non-classroom exposure was linked to higher chances of transmission (OR, 2.47); a fully vaccinated versus unvaccinated contact was tied to a lower likelihood of spread (OR, 0.04). In both periods, a higher Social Vulnerability Index score was associated with higher chances of transmission."This study is the first to our knowledge to show that students and staff exposed to SARS-CoV-2 at school were more likely to become infected if they lived in districts with greater social vulnerability, even when vaccination status, distance, and other factors of transmission risk were considered," the researchers wrote. "Schools with more resources may have had more ability to implement ventilatory improvements, a factor known to reduce transmission in schools." In the Italian study, published yesterday in Epidemics, a team led by University of Trento researchers reconstructed SARS-CoV-2 transmission chains involved in 284 COVID-19 infections in 87 school outbreaks amid the Alpha variant wave in Italy.Nearly half of infections among school attendees were related to school contacts, and the average number of secondary cases infected at school was estimated at 0.33. Roughly 30% of students and school staff who tested positive during in-person instruction were tied to at least one school secondary infection.

Bivalent COVID booster protects against poor outcomes better than 1-strain 4th dose - A fourth dose of the bivalent (two-strain) COVID-19 vaccine is substantially more effective against medical treatment and hospitalization than a fourth monovalent (single-strain) dose among both previously infected and never-infected people who had received three monovalent doses, concludes an observational study published yesterday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.A team led by Singapore Ministry of Health researchers used national healthcare data to retrospectively compare the effectiveness of a fourth dose of the bivalent or monovalent COVID-19 vaccine against medical treatment and hospitalization among 2,749,819 adults from October 14, 2022, to January 31, 2023, by previous infection status.Most participants had received three monovalent doses and were eligible for a fourth dose, and 31.1% received a fourth dose before the study began. Median age was 44 years.The monovalent vaccine targets wild-type SARS-CoV-2, and the bivalent replacement targets both the wild-type virus and the Omicron variant. The bivalent Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine targets the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 subvariant, while the Moderna version targets the BA.1 subvariant.Of the 2,749,819 adults, 129,870 medically attended symptomatic COVID-19 infections were recorded, 21.6% of which were reinfections. A total of 2.5% of participants with first infections and 2.0% with reinfections required hospitalization. Of them, 0.4% with first infections and 0.2% with reinfections required supplemental oxygen or intensive care or died.A fourth monovalent COVID-19 vaccine dose didn't confer more protection than three doses against symptomatic infection among never-infected participants (hazard ratio [HR], 1.09), while dose 4 of the bivalent vaccine did (HR, 0.18, or 82% protection). The HRs were 0.87 (13% protection) and 0.14 (86% protection) among previously infected participants after four monovalent and bivalent doses, respectively.Four doses of the bivalent vaccine offered more protection against hospitalization to both never-infected and previously infected participants than four monovalent doses (bivalent HRs, 0.12 and 0.04, respectively, vs monovalent HRs, 0.84 and 0.85, respectively).No waning of bivalent vaccine effectiveness against medical treatment was seen after 2 months among both previously infected and never-infected participants.The bivalent Pfizer vaccine targeting BA.4/BA.5 was more effective than the Moderna version (HRs, 0.04 [96% protection] vs 0.25 [75% protection], respectively). The monovalent and bivalent vaccines were similarly effective against medical treatment among adults aged 18 to 49 years, but a fourth bivalent dose conferred substantially more protection than a fourth monovalent dose among those 50 years and older.

Three vaccine doses most protective for children during Omicron in Brazil A case-control study in Brazil during the Omicron wave of the pandemic reveals a two-dose COVID vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 49.4%, 26.0%, and 7.2% for children, adolescents, and young adults, respectively, but it was higher for certain vaccine types.A three-dose VE against death was 64.5%. The study is published in JAMA Pediatrics and adds to the literature on the effectiveness of the booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines among children and adolescent recipients.The test-negative case-control study was conducted between December of 2021 and August of 2022. The vaccines available to participants were BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech RNA vaccine), ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine), and CoronaVac (Sinovac's inactivated vaccine). A total of 2,080,867 children with a positive test result and 3,706,680 controls were included in the final analysis.For children and adolescents, BNT162b2 had the highest VE(62.3%; (95% conference interval [CI], 60.7% to 63.9%) and 30.8% (95% CI, 28.9% to 32.6%), respectively. For young adults, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 achieved the highest VE of 29.5%."Among adolescents and adults who received the booster dose, VE against symptomatic infection was similar for all vaccine types,” the authors said.The booster dose was highly protective, however, against death. A third vaccine dose of any type resulted in a significant increase in VE against death for adolescents (80.8%) and young adults (61.7%).

COVID vaccine uptake among hospital workers reached 99% after mandate - COVID-19 vaccine uptake among staff at a large Philadelphia teaching hospital rose from 86% to 99% after implementation of a mandate, finds a study published late last week in Vaccine.A University of Pennsylvania-led team evaluated COVID-19 vaccine coverage before and after they were required to receive two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccine or one dose of the Johnson & Johnson (J&J) vaccine by September 1, 2021.The hospital rolled out COVID-19 vaccines to staff on December 16, 2020, and announced on May 19, 2021, that all employees were required to complete a vaccine series by September 1 of that year.To reduce vaccine hesitancy, the hospital held town halls, occupational medicine staff and managers met one-on-one with unvaccinated staff to answer questions and address concerns, and the vaccination clinic expanded its hours to include days, evenings, and weekends. Staff could get vaccinated at any hospital location, but had to provide documentation if vaccinated outside the health system. Because vaccination rates were lowest among Black and Hispanic healthcare professionals (HCPs), efforts were focused on engaging these groups. Staff could apply for a religious or medical exemption; if granted, employees could work but would have to take two COVID-19 antigen tests each week.Employees who didn't comply with the mandate were placed on unpaid administrative leave without pay after September 1 and terminated 2 weeks later unless they confirmed that they were planning or starting the vaccination process. Vaccine uptake was evaluated in three phases: phase I (December 16, 2020, to May 18, 2021); Phase 2 (May 19 to September 1, 2021); and phase 3 (September 2 to October 31, 2021).The median age among 10,889 HCPs was 39 years, 64.4% were women, 51.1% were physicians or nurses, 60.9% were White, 20.3% were Black, 12.6% were Asian, 3.7% were Hispanic, and 2.4% were multiracial.

US hospital data confirm rise in antibiotic use during COVID pandemic New data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show a significant increase in antibiotic use in US hospitals early in the COVID-19 pandemic, with smaller upticks observed during subsequent COVID-19 surges.The data, published yesterday in Clinical Infectious Diseases,confirm a trend that's been documented in both the United States and other parts of the world during the early months of the pandemic. Faced with severely ill patients with pneumonia-like illness, limited diagnostic tests and treatment options, and concerns about secondary bacterial infections, healthcare providers frequently turned to antibiotics.But the study authors say that the smaller increases in antibiotic use observed in later COVID-19 waves highlight the need for hospitals to continue efforts to optimize antibiotic use and improve management of respiratory infections.The data come from 553 acute care hospitals that submitted inpatient antibiotic use (AU) data to the National Healthcare Safety Network from January 2019 to July 2022. For the study, a team of CDC researchers analyzed antibiotics administered via oral, parenteral, inhaled, and intramuscular routes. Researchers calculated monthly pooled AU rates for all antibiotics combined and for three specific antibiotic agents: azithromycin, ceftriaxone, and piperacillin with tazobactam.Those three agents were selected because azithromycin and ceftriaxone are typically prescribed for community-acquired pneumonia and piperacillin with tazobactam is used for hospital-onset infections, which was one of the concerns with so many COVID-19 patients in intensive care units.Unsurprisingly, increases in pooled mean AU rates were observed for all antibiotics combined and each specific agent during the first COVID-19 wave. Compared with April 2019, the total AU rate in April 2020 for all antibiotics increased by 7%, with azithromycin use increasing by 64%, ceftriaxone by 27%, and piperacillin with tazobactam by 5%.The authors note that the dramatic increase in azithromycin use likely reflects the early belief that azithromycin, used with the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine, was a potentially effective treatment for COVID-19. Large-scale studies later showed, however, that azithromycin had no effect on disease severity.

NIH launches phase 2 long-COVID treatment trials - The National Institutes of Health (NIH) today announced the launch of a series of phase 2 clinical trials to assess clinical treatments for long COVID, part of a plan to test even more treatments in the months ahead.In a statement, the NIH said the first phase 2 trials will evaluate at least four treatments, part of its ongoing RECOVER (Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery) initiative, a $1.5 billion effort that was included in the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. One of the trials focuses on virus persistence and will evaluate longer-duration use of Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir and ritonavir) than is currently used for acute COVID infection. Another will look at treatment of neurologic long-COVID symptoms, such as brain fog and memory problems. The interventions to be tested are a brain-training program from Posit Science Corp. called BrainHQ, a web-based goal-management program developed by the Mount Sinai Health System called PASC-Cognitive Recovery, and a home-based transcranial stimulation device developed by Soterix Medical.A two-pronged study will evaluate treatments for sleep problems, one of them looking at two wakefulness-promoting drugs to help with excessive daytime sleepiness and the other to evaluate interventions to target problems with falling and staying asleep.To examine treatments for autonomic system problems, the initial trial will focus on postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, which manifests as irregular heartbeat, dizziness, and fatigue. It will have multiple study arms, the first comparing immune system treatments with placebo and the second looking at a drug currently used to treat people with chronic heart failure.The NIH said a fifth platform will be added and will focus on exercise intolerance and fatigue. Patients and scientists are giving the NIH input on the development of the protocol. Rachel Levine, MD, assistant secretary for health at the Department of Health and Human Services, said in a NIH statement that the clinical trials are part of a whole-of-government response to long COVID."Coupled with adequate supports and services, access to clinical care and up-to-date information on what we know about long COVID, we can work toward relief for individuals and families impacted most."

Long-COVID patients have altered metabolite levels 2 years after infection -Levels of metabolites were altered in long-COVID patients 2 years after infection, suggests a study published today inScientific Reports.Metabolites are products of metabolism, or the process of changing food and drink into energy, that have cell-level roles, such as providing fuel, structure, or defense.Researchers at the Autonomous University of Zacatecas in Mexico led the study, which involved assessment of the plasma metabolome (set of metabolites) in 100 samples obtained from healthy controls, COVID-19 patients, and long-COVID patients in Mexico from 2020 and 2022.The team measured concentrations of 108 metabolites using liquid chromatography and flow injection analysis with tandem mass spectrometry. They also asked participants to complete symptom questionnaires and used an immunoenzymatic assay to measure the levels of the protein interleukin 17 (IL-17) and the weight-maintenance hormone leptin in long-COVID patients.All patients were fully vaccinated in 2021 and 2022. Six patients (12.5%) had mild COVID-19, 37 (77%) had moderate or severe infections, and 5 (10.4%) had critical cases.A comparison of paired samples from 15 COVID-19 and long-COVID patients showed significant differences in 53 metabolites, with 13 upregulated and 32 downregulated in long-COVID patients.Twenty-seven metabolites were still dysregulated in long-COVID patients compared with controls after 2 years. Long-COVID patients had different concentrations of lactic acid and arginine, altered lactate-pyruvate and ornithine-citrulline ratios, and significantly higher levels of IL-17.The most common long-COVID symptoms included memory loss (73.3%); sleep disorders, joint pain, fatigue, exercise intolerance, and muscle pain (66.7%); and anxiety (60.0%)."Mitochondrial dysfunction, redox state imbalance, impaired energy metabolism, and chronic immune dysregulation are likely to be the main hallmarks of long COVID even two years after acute COVID-19 infection," the study authors wrote.

Reported global COVID-19 cases remain fairly low - Official COVID-19 case counts are rising only in the Western Pacific region globally—mainly due to transmission in South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore—according to the latest update today from the World Health Organization (WHO).The numbers come with the usual WHO caveat: "Currently, reported cases do not accurately represent infection rates due to the reduction in testing and reporting globally." The agency underscored that reality by noting that only 46% of 234 countries have reportedany COVID cases. The WHO said that proportion has been declining since mid-2022.Globally, more than 1 million new confirmed COVID-19 cases and more than 3,100 deaths were reported in the past 28 days (through July 30). In total, the world has seen 768 million confirmed cases and more than 6.9 million COVID-19 deaths.Deaths are down across all global regions. The nations with the most new cases in the past 4 weeks are South Korea (751,484 new cases), Brazil (45,642), Australia (30,144), New Zealand (23,443), and Singapore (23,216). Of those countries, only South Korea reported a case increase. The most new deaths were in Brazil (695 deaths in the past 4 weeks), Peru (321), Australia (260), Russia (251), and South Korea (199).Of 16 countries that report hospitalizations and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, none noted rises of 20% or more. The only variants that are rising in proportion are XBB.1.9.2, EG.5, and XBB.2.3.In its weekly COVID update, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control notes that low COVID-19 levels continue in Europe, though 5 of 20 reporting nations confirm increased case rates, while 2 of 7 report increased hospital cases, ICU visits, or both. The XBB.1.5 subvariant continues to dominate on the continent.

Study highlights threat of Staph epidermidis in ICU patients - A study of patients in two intensive care units (ICUs) suggests Staphylococcus epidermidis bacteria are an underrated cause of bloodstream infections and septic shock, French researchers reported last week in theInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases.Although S epidermidis is considered a low virulence pathogen, it frequently colonizes the skin and mucous membranes and can cause infections, particularly in immunosuppressed patients with indwelling devices. To get a better sense of the clinical repercussions and prognosis of S epidermidis bloodstream infections (SE-BSIs), along with levels of antibiotic resistance, researchers conducted a retrospective study on ICU patients at two French hospitals, focusing on their epidemiologic characteristics and clinical outcomes following SE-BSIs.A total of 59 patients with SE-BSIs were included in the study (58% men, median age of 67 years). Most patients (56%) were immunocompromised, including 44% active cancers and 17% organ transplant patients, and all but one patient had a central venous access device during their ICU stay. Of the patients, 63% required norepinephrine, a first-line agent recommended during resuscitation for septic shock, at the time of positive blood cultures, with no indications of concurrent infections.Patients with hemodynamic consequences of SE-BSI required more mechanical ventilation at the time of bacteremia (49% vs 18%) and had a higher mortality rate (46% vs 14%). Clinical isolates were 100% susceptible to vancomycin but only 71% susceptible to linezolid.

Report highlights hospital sinks as source of highly resistant pathogen --A case report published today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report highlights the role of the hospital water environment in the transmission of highly resistant, difficult-to-treat pathogens.The report by researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Idaho Division of Public Health (IDPH), and Utah Public Health Laboratory (UPHL) describes the identification and investigation of carbapenemase-producing, carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa (CP-CRPA) in two patients who stayed in the same room in an intensive care unit (ICU) in Idaho 4 months apart.The opportunistic pathogen, which was ultimately traced to a sink in the shared room, persists in the hospital environment, where it can spread easily between patients and cause severe invasive infections,The pathogen was first identified by hospital staff on September 17, 2021, in the sputum of a woman who had received mechanical ventilation during 3 of 5 weeks of ICU hospitalization. Whole-genome sequencing by UPHL, which belongs to the CDC Antibiotic Resistance Laboratory Network, detected the imipenem metallo-beta-lactamase gene type 84 (bla_IMP-84)—one of the less commonly reported carbapenemase genes—and characterized the isolate as belonging to multilocus sequence type 235 (ST235).On January 25, 2022, CP-CRPA was isolated from a second patient who shared the same room while receiving mechanical ventilation for 4 weeks. Sequencing of the isolate by UPHL confirmed it also belonged to ST235 and carried the bla_IMP-84 gene. But there was no evidence of person-to-person transmission.Although no CP-CRPA was detected in the 16 patients who stayed in the room between the two patients, no patients were placed in the room after January 25, and IDPH officials visited the hospital in March 2022 to investigate the cluster and collect environmental samples.

CDC recommends preventive RSV shot for infants - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said yesterday that it is recommending immunization with nirsevimab to protect all infants under 8 months of age and some older infants from severe illness caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).Marketed under the trade name Beyfortus, nirsevimab is a long-acting monoclonal antibody developed by AstraZeneca. It was approved last month by the US Food and Drug Administration for newborns and infants entering their first RSV season, and in children up to 24 months of age who are entering their second RSV season and are vulnerable to severe RSV disease.New CDC director Mandy Cohen, MD, MPH, signed off on the recommendation following a unanimous vote by the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). The injection will be added to the recommended childhood immunization schedule.While most infants and young children with RSV experience mild, cold-like symptoms, an estimated 58,000 to 80,000 children under the age of 5, mainly infants, are hospitalized each year for RSV infection, which can lead to lower respiratory tract diseases such as pneumonia and bronchiolitis. An estimated 100 to 300 children under 5 die from complications caused by the virus annually, according to the CDC.RSV typically starts circulating in the fall and peaks in the winter in most parts of the United States. It's transmitted through close contact with someone who's infected.

Risk of severe flu outcomes 7-fold higher in poorer nations, analysis finds - The risk of flu-related intensive care unit (ICU) admission was sevenfold higher in lower middle-income countries (LMICs) than in high-income countries (HICs), according to an analysis yesterday in the Journal of Infectious Diseases.The Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network conducted the study, the first to evaluate years of global, patient-level data from hospitals to determine geographic differences in flu severity. The analysis included 15,660 patients admitted to 116 hospitals in 22 countries for flu from 2012 through 2019. Of all patients, 72.4% had influenza A, and 27.6% had influenza B."Given lack of routine testing for influenza, and the complex pathway by which influenza can exacerbate chronic conditions and lead to severe disease, influenza burden estimates remain uncertain, especially in data-poor settings," the authors wrote.After adjustment for patient-level covariates, the risk of flu-related ICU admission was sevenfold higher in LMICs than in HICs. Having two or more underlying medical conditions significantly heightened the likelihood of ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital death (adjusted odds ratios [aORs], 2.40, 2.58, and 1.66, respectively), while female sex was protective against death (aOR, 0.80).Relative to patients aged 5 to 64 years, those 65 and older had double the odds of death (aOR, 2.18), and those younger than 5 had lower chances of ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, and death (aORs, 0.67, 0.67, and 0.17, respectively).

Leprosy cases surging in Central Florida: CDC -Health officials say that cases of leprosy, also known as Hansen’s disease, are surging in Central Florida. In a research letter, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said that Central Florida has accounted for 81 percent of reported cases in the state and almost one-fifth of reported cases nationwide. “Leprosy has been historically uncommon in the United States; incidence peaked around 1983, and a drastic reduction in the annual number of documented cases occurred from the 1980s through 2000,” the letter reads. “However, since then, reports demonstrate a gradual increase in the incidence of leprosy in the United States. The number of reported cases has more than doubled in the southeastern states over the last decade.” Authorities said that several cases in Central Florida have demonstrated no clear evidence of zoonotic exposure or traditionally known risk factors. They also noted that they have reported a case of lepromatous leprosy in the area in a male resident without risk factors for known transmission routes. Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease primarily affecting a patient’s skin and peripheral nervous system. It spreads through extended close contact with a patient who is untreated. The known symptoms of leprosy include discolored skin patches, thick and dry skin, skin growths, the loss of eyebrows and eyelashes, muscle weakness or paralysis and enlarged nerves, according to CBS News. Serious symptoms, if the disease is not treated, can develop into blindness, ulcers on the bottom of the patient’s feet and paralysis and crippling of hands and feet. According to the World Health Organization, medical officials report more than 200,000 cases of leprosy every year in more than 120 countries. The CDC states that about 150 people get infected with the disease in the U.S. annually.

Central Florida: Leprosy Capital Of The USA -A long-suppressed dread disease appears to be taking up permanent residence in America's Southeast, with Florida emerging as a principal hot spot. That disease is leprosy, also known as Hansen's disease. Caused by slow-growing bacteria, it can affect nerves, skin, eyes, and nasal lining. While early treatment can be highly effective, a neglected case can lead to crippling disfigurement, paralysis and blindness.Cases in America most recently peaked in 1980, followed by a dramatic decline. Since 2000, however, cases have been gradually rising, and have doubled in the southeastern states, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Central Florida accounts for nearly a fifth of all cases in the United States. The numbers themselves aren't alarming yet -- eight cases in Florida in 2023. However, what's particularly concerning is that recent infections don't appear to have originated from foreign travel to high-risk countries like India, Brazil and Bangladesh.“Florida has witnessed an increased incidence of leprosy cases lacking traditional risk factors. Those trends, in addition to decreasing diagnoses in foreign-born persons, contribute to rising evidence that leprosy has become endemic in the southeastern United States,” say the authors of a CDC report. "Endemic" describes a disease that regularly occurs in a given region. "Travel to Florida should be considered when conducting leprosy contact tracing in any state."In 2020, six states accounted for 69% of the country's 159 cases of leprosy: Florida, California, Louisiana Hawaii, New York and Texas. The CDC spotlights the case of a 54-year-old man who contracted leprosy in 2022, with painful lesions and swelling: “He denied any domestic or foreign travel, exposure to armadillos, prolonged contact with immigrants from leprosy-endemic countries, or connections with someone known to have leprosy. He has resided in central Florida his entire life, works in landscaping, and spends long periods of time outdoors.”

Quick takes: Vibrio deaths in North Carolina, Georgia reports Naegleria fowleri death, Jamestown Canyon virus cases in Michigan | CIDRAP

• North Carolina's health department on July 28 warned residents about the risk from exposure to saltwater or brackish water in people who have wounds or cuts, following three Vibrio vulnificus deaths in July. In a statement, the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services said two of the people had scratches that were exposed to brackish water in North Carolina, and the third was exposed in another East Coast state. The third patient had eaten seafood that he or she had caught. No links have been found among the patients or the areas where they were likely exposed. North Carolia has reported 47 such cases since 2019, 8 of them fatal. Vibrio bacteria are normally found in warm sea water or brackish water. Aside from the risk of exposure from open skin, the bacteria can cause disease in people who eat undercooked oysters and shellfish.
• The Georgia Department of Public Health (GDPH) on July 28 reported the death of a Georgia resident from Naegleria fowleri, an amoeba that can cause rare brain infections. The patient was probably infected while swimming in a freshwater lake or pond in Georgia. The GDPH said about three such infections, typically fatal, are reported in the United States each year. Since 1962, Georgia has reported six Naegleria fowleri infections. Health officials urged people to avoid diving or jumping into bodies of warm fresh water, especially in the summer, and to avoid getting water up the nose while swimming in freshwater lakes or ponds.
• Marking its first two mosquito-borne illness detections of the year, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services on July 28 reported two Jamestown Canyon virus (JCV) cases, one from Oakland County and one from neighboring Macomb County. Officials said mosquito pools in Bay, Saginaw, and Washtenaw counties have tested positive for JCV this summer. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said about 17 neuroinvasive JCV illnesses are reported each year. It added that most infections occur between April and September. JCV is found throughout much of the country, but Minnesota and Wisconsin have reported more than half of the cases.

Georgia resident dies from rare brain-eating amoeba - A Georgia resident has died from a rare brain-eating amoeba after they were likely infected while swimming in a freshwater lake or pond, officials said.The resident, who has not yet been identified, died after being exposed to Naegleria fowleri, which can cause a rare infection that "destroys brain tissue, causing brain swelling and usually death," the Georgia Department of Public Health said in a news release Friday.It was not clear exactly when the resident died or where they were swimming when they contracted the infection."Naegleria fowleri is an amoeba (single-celled living organism) that lives in soil and warm, freshwater lakes, rivers, ponds, and hot springs," the health department said. It noted that the amoeba is not found in salt water or in properly treated drinking water or swimming pools.The amoeba is known as the "brain-eating amoeba" because it can cause a brain infection when water containing the amoeba goes up the nose, the health department said. "It cannot infect people if swallowed and is not spread from person to person," the department noted.The deadly infection is rare, with only about three people in the United States contracting it each year, "but these infections are usually fatal," the health department said.Prior to this latest case, there have been five other cases reported in Georgia since 1962, according to the department.There have been multiple other cases reported in the U.S. so far this year.In July, a 2-year-old boy from Nevada was confirmed to have died from a Naegleria fowleri infection.The boy, from Lincoln County, just north of the Las Vegas area, may have been exposed at Ash Springs, a natural hot spring in the county, the Nevada Division of Public and Behavioral Health said.In February, a man in Florida also died from an amoeba, which he may have contracted after he rinsed his sinuses with tap water, health officials said.

Ten new polio cases reported in DRC The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has reported 10 new cases of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 1 (cVDPV1), according to the latest update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI).The 10 cases, 9 from Tanganyika province and 1 from Haut Katanga province, bring the total number of cVDPV1 cases reported in the country this year to 46. DRC also reported 4 new cases involving circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2), 2 each from Haut Lomami and Lualaba provinces, bringing the 2023 total to 61 cases.Nigeria also reported a new cVDPV2 case this week, from Kebbi province, and has now reported 19 this year. Countries reporting cVDPV2-positive environmental samples include Nigeria (1), Algeria (2), and Yemen (5).Pakistan reported one wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1)-positive environmental sample.GPEI also published the sixth report of the Transition Independent Monitoring Board, which evaluates the progress and challenges of transferring the responsibility of polio immunization and response efforts to national governments. The report includes a series of recommendations to strengthen the process at the global, regional, and country level.

Experimental study suggests bed bugs could be vector for MRSA spread --The results of an experimental study suggest bed bugs may be able to acquire and transmit methicillin-resistantStaphylococcus aureus (MRSA), researchers reported yesterday in the Journal of Infectious Diseases.In the study, researchers from the University of South Dakota developed an experimental design that used a collagen membrane contaminated with MRSA to mimic the process of a bed bug blood feeding through the skin of a host colonized with MRSA. They then conducted three trials in which groups of 30 bed bugs were allowed to feed on sterile blood through the contaminated membrane until fully engorged and were analyzed for the amount of viable MRSA present on their bodies and internally for 7 days.Analysis of 12 bed bugs on days 0, 3, and 7 post-exposure found that all acquired MRSA on their bodies and internally, with evidence from blood samples indicating proliferation of MRSA within the bed bugs following ingestion. MRSA remained viable on the bed bug surface for up to 3 days post-exposure in two of three trials and up to 7 days in one of three trials, and in the blood for up to 3 days post-exposure in all three trials and 7 days in one of three trials. To determine if the bed bugs could transmit MRSA, the researchers allowed 10 bugs that had been maintained for 7 days after the initial feeding to take a second blood meal through an uncontaminated membrane. Transmission of MRSA to the uncontaminated membrane was observed in two of three trials.The study authors note that while previous studies have described the isolation of MRSA from bed bugs, evidence for their potential role in transmission has been lacking.

Russia and China report new H5N1 avian flu outbreaks in birds -In the steady stream of new H5N1 avian flu developments, China and Russia reported new H5N1 outbreaks in newly affected parts of their countries, with other countries reporting more detections in mammals, including a cat at a second animal shelter in South Korea.China's agriculture ministry reported that highly pathogenic H5N1 struck wild birds in Nagqu City in northeastern Tibet, according to a July 28 government statement translated and posted by Avian Flu Diary (AFD) an infectious disease news blog.At least 5,100 birds were affected, including brown-headed gulls. Officials disposed of the sick and dead birds, sanitized the area, and imposed movement restrictions into the area.In Russia, fresh H5N1 outbreaks struck both poultry and a wild bird in newly affected areas, according to separate notifications from the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH).Health officials said the virus struck a large poultry operation in Vologda oblast in northwestern Russia. The event began on July 21, killing 27,084 of 490,644 susceptible birds.Meanwhile, H5N1 was detected for the first time in a gull found dead near a body of water on June 28 near the city of Kurgalskij in Leningrad oblast, located in northwest Russia around the Gulf of Finland and south of two freshwater lakes.In South America, Ecuador reported a new outbreak at a commercial farm located on Cotopaxi province in the central part of the country, the first in more than 100 days, according to a media report, which cited government agriculture officials. The detection prompted officials to extend poultry vaccination to Cotopaxi and to two neighboring provinces. Following H5N1 detections in two cats from the same shelter in Seoul, South Korean health officials said yesterday that tests detected H5N1 in a cat from a second animal shelter in Seoul, according to a statement translated and posted by AFD. In an update today, officials said 3 of 10 cats at the second shelter have tested positive for H5N1, raising the country's total to five.

CDC reports 2023’s first two US human infections with swine flu The first two US human infections with swine flu viruses in 2023 were reported this week in Michigan, according to an update today by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).The CDC said the two infections occurred in people who attended different agricultural fairs in Michigan and had contact with pigs. The infections were caused by two different types of flu virus variants—likely influenza A(H3)v and influenza A(H1N2)v—that are usually associated with contact with pigs.The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services reported the presumptive positive influenza A(H3)v infection on July 26 in a person who had attended a fair that took place from July 7 to July 16. An investigation found that the patient had been exposed to pigs 10 days prior to illness onset, was treated with flu antivirals, and recovered.The influenza A(H1N2)v infection was reported on July 31 (and later confirmed at the CDC) in a person who had been exposed to pigs during a fair held from July 23 to July 29. That individual was also treated with flu antivirals and is recovering. Neither patient was hospitalized. Agricultural fairs can increase the risk that flu viruses will spread among pigs and between pigs and people. The CDC recommends not eating or drinking while in pig areas, avoiding contact with pigs that appear to be sick, and washing hands before and after contact with pigs.

CWD detected in Marshall County, Iowa, for first time -A deer has tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Marshall County, Iowa, for the first time, pushing the state total to 260 CWD-positive deer in 16 counties since 2013.In a news release, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (DNR) said that tissue from the road-killed buck was collected in mid-June in Marshall County, in the west-central part of the state.The DNR has scheduled two public meetings in Baxter and Wellsburg on CWD surveillance and management in Jasper, Marshall, and Grundy counties. At a minimum, the DNR said, the tissue-collection goal will increase in Marshall County from 15 to 20 deer to 100 or more in the coming year."Our hunters are an important partner in managing and monitoring for this disease," DNR wildlife biologist Steve Woodruff said in the release. "Hunters provide the tissue samples we need to determine to what extent the disease is on the landscape in Marshall County and elsewhere in Iowa."CWD is a fatal neurodegenerative prion disease caused by infectious prions, or misfolded proteins, that affects cervids such as deer, elk, and moose. The disease creates cavities in the brain that resemble those of sponges, causing the animal to lose weight, behave abnormally, and lose body functions. While CWD isn't known to infect humans, some experts fear it could jump species.

Wildfire smoke forecast to return tonight in Youngstown Ohio, Ohio and Pennsylvania - Thankfully, this round of wildfire smoke is forecast to remain elevated and away from the surface, for the most part. Therefore, any effect on the surface air quality should be minimal. The video loop below shows the surface wildfire smoke through the next couple of days. The video loop above shows that most, if not all, of the smoke stays away from the surface on Tuesday. There is some potential for light smoke at the surface on Wednesday, however, the air quality will continue to be better than what was experienced in previous weeks. The air quality forecast for Youngstown is below. The air quality index will begin to steadily rise Tuesday into Wednesday. The air quality index will be considered “moderate” over the next few days. The above image shows the poorest air quality index this year, which occurred on June 28. The values this week will be nowhere near what happened in late June. The hope is that continued cooler temperatures and rain will help to hamper wildfires in Canada over the coming weeks.

Wildfire smoke is back in the Midwest, Northeast. Here's what you need to know -After a brief interlude, smoky skies have returned to portions of the Great Lakes and the Northeast. AccuWeather meteorologists say that the wildfires in central Canada are to blame for this bout of smoke, but this time the impacts are likely to be short-lived.Many across the Midwest and the Northeast awoke Tuesday morning to a sight that has been all too familiar this summer: an orange-red sun hovering in a milky white sky.The thickest smoke is expected to remain off to the north in Canada, particularly across portions of Manitoba and Ontario. Even still, the smoke is forecast to traverse from parts of Michigan and New York to North Carolina, Virginia and Delaware.Major cities from Detroit and Pittsburgh to Washington, D.C., and New York City can expect to see smoke in the air."In locations across the Great Lakes and Northeast, the most widespread impacts from the smoke will be hazy skies, leading to especially colorful sunrises and sunsets," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty. This could also bring a slight reduction in visibility.There may be some localized cases of reduced air quality or a more significant reduction in visibility. When the air quality index (AQI) is over 100, sensitive groups may experience health effects immediately, and even healthy individuals could experience difficulty breathing and throat irritation after prolonged exposure.Experts recommend that people check air quality forecasts before heading outdoors and take proper precautions such as wearing an N95 mask when the AQI reaches unhealthy levels.

As wildfires burn, scientists race to understand the health dangers of prolonged exposure - That smoke is more than a nuisance: It contains dangerous particulate matter that we breathe into our lungs, and scientists are urgently calling for more research to understand the health effects of increasingly frequent exposures. They’re also worried that the widely used air quality index is insufficient to alert us to the particular threat of wildfire smoke, which early research suggests may be more harmful than other types of air pollution. It’s well-established that short, intense exposures to wildfire smoke can exacerbate respiratory problems like asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and aggravate pre-existing heart issues, causing surges in hospital visits. Much less is known, though, about the accumulated risks of living and breathing in even mildly smoky conditions day after day. “Right now, we don’t have a good understanding of what the long-term effects of prolonged exposures to wildfire smoke are,” said Ana Rappold, an epidemiologist at the Environmental Protection Agency. It’s a data gap she and other scientists are trying to fill. Days- or weeks-long stretches of thick smoke have already been an increasingly common feature of life in the western U.S. In states including Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, wildfires have in recent years reversed the substantial air quality gains achieved by the Clean Air Act of 1970 — especially when it comes to the most dangerous particulates, called PM_2.5. “For the last four decades, we’d been making steady progress on PM_2.5 and other pollutants,” said Daniel Jaffe, an environmental chemist at the University of Washington whose lab led the research. “Then around 2012 things started changing and it just keeps getting worse and worse.”Particulate matter is a term for solid particles or liquid droplets suspended in the air; PM_2.5 is the tiniest and farthest traveling of these. With a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or smaller, less than 1/20th the width of a human hair, they can stay airborne for long periods of time and float over hundreds of miles. At those sizes, particles can also get past the slimy, sticky defenses of a person’s nasal passages and be inhaled deep into the lungs. From there, they can enter the bloodstream and lodge in different tissues including the heart, kidneys, and brain, damaging cells, causing inflammation, and increasing the risk of heart attack, stroke, and infection.These public health concerns are the reasons governments regulate PM_2.5. For decades, the chief sources of PM_2.5 in the U.S. have been smokestacks, factories, and vehicle tail pipes and tires slapping off microscopic flecks of rubber. Most of what researchers know about the health impacts of particulate matter come from studying this kind of air pollution. They know a lot less about wildfire-generated PM_2.5, but emerging evidence suggests it’s even more problematic, especially for lung health.Researchers have found that wildfire-specific PM_2.5 is more likely to send people over the age of 65 to the hospital for respiratory issues than similar concentrations of PM_2.5 from other sources, like car exhaust. In Colorado, increases in wildfire PM_2.5caused higher spikes in emergency room visits for asthma than did other kinds of air pollution.

30 days over 110 F in Phoenix. But expected monsoon rains could cool historically hot Southwest. - — A historic heat wave that has gripped the U.S. Southwest throughout July, blasting residents and baking surfaces like brick, is beginning to abate with the late arrival of monsoon rains. Forecasters expect that by Monday, people in metro Phoenix will begin to see high temperatures fall under 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 degrees Celsius) for the first time in a month. But not on Saturday. The high temperature in the desert city with more than 1.6 million residents climbed past 110 F for the 30th straight day, the National Weather Service said. The previous record stretch of 110 F or above was for 18 days in 1974. There are increased chances on Sunday of cooling monsoon thunderstorms. Though wet weather can also bring damaging winds, blowing dust and the chance of flash flooding, the weather service warned. Sudden rains running off hard-baked surfaces can quickly fill normally dry washes. Already this week, the overnight low at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport fell under 90 F (32.2 C) for the first time in 16 days, finally giving residents some respite from the stifling heat once the sun goes down. Temperatures also were expected to ease in Las Vegas, Albuquerque and even in Death Valley, California, where the weather service said the expected high of 122 F (50 C) on Saturday is forecast to lower to 113 F (45 C) by Tuesday — along with a slight chance of rain. Also in California, triple-digit heat was expected in parts of the San Joaquin Valley from Saturday through Monday, according to the National Weather Service in Hanford, California. Gusty, late-afternoon winds were expected Saturday and Sunday in Santa Barbara County, posing an elevated risk of fire weather, the weather service in Los Angeles said. Hot, dry weather was also expected across nearby valleys, lower mountains and desert areas. In Riverside County, more than 1,300 people were ordered to evacuate their homes and another 1,400 were facing evacuation warnings as crews battled a wildfire that charred 3.2 square miles (8.3 square kilometers) in the community of Aguanga, about 60 miles (96 kilometers) northeast of San Diego, authorities said Saturday. One firefighter was reported to have been injured in the so-called Bonny Fire, which authorities said was about 5% contained. The heat is impacting animals, as well. Police in the city of Burbank, California, found a bear cooling off in a Jacuzzi behind a home on Friday. Police released a video of the animal in a neighborhood about 10 miles (16 kilometers) north of Los Angeles near the Verdugo Mountains and warned residents to lock up food and garbage. A downward trend in Southwest heat started Wednesday night, when Phoenix saw its first major monsoon storm since the traditional June 15 start of the thunderstorm season. While more than half of the greater Phoenix area saw no rainfall from that storm, some eastern suburbs were pummeled by high winds, swirling dust and localized downfalls of up to 1 inch (2.5 centimeters) of precipitation. Storms gradually increasing in strength are expected over the weekend.

El Paso hot weather streak ends after 44 days of triple-digit heat -- A hellishly hot record of 44 consecutive 100-degree days in El Paso came to a thankful end when the high temperature missed the triple-digit mark for the first time since June 16. The high temperature on Sunday was 97 degrees, the National Weather Service Office for El Paso said. El Paso set a record for 44 consecutive days in the triple-digits as a stagnant heat wave hovered over much of the United States, according to the National Weather Service Office. The previous local record had been 23 consecutive days of 100+ temperatures in the scorching summer of July 1994, according to the National Weather Service.On Sunday, the streak-breaking day began with a cooler morning that kept the harshest heat at bay and gave rise to hope that the streak would finally finish during a summer when the annual monsoon rains have been mostly absent. Though the record-setting streak is over, the 100-degree days are not. Temperatures will reach the triple-digits as August begins, with a temperature of 101 degrees Wednesday, Aug. 2, according to the National Weather Service. The dangerous heat wave of 2023 has caused a rise inheat-related emergencies, migrant desert deaths andunprecedented electricity usage as residents tried to stay cool amid seemingly endless, disturbingly hot days and nights. On July 19, El Paso was toasted with a high of 111 degrees, making it the hottest day in the Sun City since 2017, according to the National Weather Service. The average daily temperature so far this July has been 106, the National Weather Service said.

July 2023 marks Japan’s highest recorded temperature, surpassing 1978’s record - An analysis by the Asahi Shimbun, based on data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), indicates that July 2023 was the hottest month in Japan since modern records began in the late 19^th century. The previous record was set in 1978, making this the first time in 45 years that it has been surpassed.The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Asahi Shimbun reported that July 2023 has set a record for being the hottest month in Japan’s recorded history, a significant jump from the previous record set in 1978. The findings are the result of a comprehensive study, overseen by JMA experts, of data from 15 observatories across Japan.The observatories serve as JMA’s standard for tracking Japan’s average temperatures, and the collected data demonstrated that the average temperature for July 2023 was 25.96 °C (78.7 °F). Although the temperatures in early July hovered around 24 °C (75.2 °F), from July 10 onwards, the country experienced a rapid increase, exceeding 26 °C (78.8 °F).With an almost complete lack of rainfall and an unusually early end to the rainy season, the nation faced a persistent drought which further amplified the heat. By the 25^th, the average daily temperature had risen to exceed 28 °C (82.4 °F), an unprecedented level of sustained heat.These numbers far surpass the highest average temperature previously recorded in July 1978, which stood at 25.58 °C (78 °F).

July 2023 nailed an unfortunate world record: hottest month ever recorded - July 2023 was the hottest month ever recorded, and climate change made the elevated temperatures across 51 percent of Earth’s land surface at least five times more likely, according to a study released August 2 by Climate Central. Researchers had already spotlighted the fingerprint of climate change on recent heat waves in China, North America and Europe (SN: 7/19/23; SN: 7/25/23). But the new report shows that during July, climate change’s influence extended across much of the globe, especially “a tropical band around the planet that includes Africa, South and Central America, the Malay Archipelago and many of the small island nations in both hemispheres,” Andrew Pershing, a climate scientist with the Princeton, N.J., nonprofit, said at an August 1 news briefing. While the World Meteorological Organization has yet to officially deem July as Earth’s hottest recorded month, it has confirmed the month’s first three weeks were the hottest three-week period on record. The highest global average temperature — 17.23° Celsius (63.01° Fahrenheit) — was recorded on July 6 (SN: 7/13/23). “It’s pretty clear that July is going to hit the record,” Pershing said. He and his colleagues used computers to simulate the world with contemporary climate warming — 1.27 degrees C above preindustrial levels — and without it to isolate the influence of climate change on temperatures worldwide. Last month more than 6.5 billion people, or 81 percent of the human population, experienced heat that was at least three times more likely in a world with climate change than without it, the researchers found. The recent return of El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that temporarily raises global average temperatures, is also “definitely having an effect,” said Pershing. But humans are warming the climate so fast that this year’s elevated temperatures could soon return even without El Niño. “This is the hottest El Niño year we’ve ever had,” Pershing said, “and five years from now, this will be a normal year.”

It's so hot in Phoenix, Ariz., that 42 C is considered cooler as record high temperature streak ends | CBC News - A record string of daily highs of more than 43.3 C in Phoenix ended Monday as the dangerous heat wave that suffocated the Southwest throughout July receded slightly with cooling monsoon rains. The historic heat began blasting the region in June, stretching from Texas across New Mexico and Arizona and into California's desert. Phoenix and its suburbs sweltered more and longer than most, with several records including the 31 consecutive days of 43.3 C temperatures and higher. The previous record was 18 straight days, set in 1974. The streak was finally broken Monday, when the high topped out at 42.2 C at 3:10 p.m. "The high temperature for Phoenix today is 108 F," Jessica Leffel, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said at 5 p.m. "I'm just getting ready to post it on our social media." Phoenix also sweated through a record 16 consecutive days when overnight lows didn't dip below 32.2 C, making it hard for people to cool off after the sun went down.The reprieve was expected to be brief, with the forecast calling for highs again above 43.3 C for several days later in the week.

Austin, San Antonio, New Orleans Break Daily High Temperature Records: Here’s Where Else Daily Records Have Fallen - An unrelenting series of summer heat waves have wreaked havoc on the South and Southwest this summer, causing a record-setting string of 31 consecutive days above 110 degrees in Phoenixand breaking daily temperature records throughout the South, as “dangerously” hot conditions linger this week from Arizona to Florida. TIMELINE

• August 2 Dallas tied its daily record high, at 107 degrees, tying a previous record set in 2011.
• August 1Austin, San Antonio and Waco, Texas, broke its latest daily record this summer, with temperatures reaching a high of 103, 102 and 106 degrees, respectively, while Little Rock, Arkansas, also set a daily high at 94 degrees and Baton Rouge topped out at 104 degrees—the hottest day in Louisiana’s capital city since 2007.
• July 31 New Orleans and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, both topped their previous daily high temperature records, at 101 and 102 degrees, respectively—the hottest day in New Orleans since 2009.
• July 30 Phoenix recorded its 31st day in a row with a high temperature above 110 degrees, trouncing its previous record of 18 days, while Baton Rouge hit another daily record of 100 degrees and Austin, Texas, broke its daily high of 107 degrees.
• July 29 Baton Rouge broke another daily temperature record at 101 degrees.

July 2023 sets record as Tampa’s hottest month ever, Florida - In July 2023, Tampa, Florida experienced the warmest month ever recorded, with average high and low temperatures peaking at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above the norm. The lack of expected summer rainfall is a significant contributing factor to the record heat. The month of July 2023 has entered the climatological record books as Tampa’s hottest month, with average temperatures rising to 34 °C (93.3 °F), and the lowest average temperature resting at 26.5 °C (79.7 °F). While no individual day saw a dramatic rise above the average by more than 2.7 °C (5 °F), the consistent 1.1 – 2.2 °C (2 – 4 °F) above the usual played a substantial role in the overall increase. During this month, the lowest temperature recorded stood at 24.4 °C (76 °F), and the highest hit 36.1 °C (97 °F). One of the significant factors contributing to the unusually hot month was a substantial decrease in rainfall. Summer storms, a typical occurrence that brings a refreshing cool-down in the afternoons in Florida, were conspicuously absent, with the storm coverage favoring more inland regions. This heatwave was not confined to Tampa alone. Bradenton also experienced its hottest month ever, while Brooksville saw its hottest July since records began. Moreover, cities like Tampa, Bradenton, and St. Petersburg all reported below-average rainfall. In fact, Bradenton not only recorded its driest July ever with 27.9 mm (1.10 inches) of rainfall but also the driest first seven months of the year since the inception of weather records. As for other cities in the Tampa Bay area, Brooksville reported near-average rainfall with 233.9 mm (9.21 inches) in July. On the contrary, Plant City experienced above-average precipitation, with rainfall exceeding 279.4 mm (11 inches). Lakeland also fell short of its average with 181.9 mm (7.16 inches) of rainfall.

Severe Montana Drought Prompts Unprecedented Fishing Restrictions -- Drought and soaring temperatures have prompted state wildlife officials to restrict fishing on some of the state's most popular lakes and streams. And, for the first time, they are considering adding them in the Flathead River basin in northwest Montana. The state has imposed so-called hoot-owl restrictions, which prohibit fishing between 2 p.m. and midnight. They are already in place on the Beaverhead, Bitterroot, Jefferson, Lower Madison and Sun rivers. Below average rainfall, higher temperatures and reduced snowpack runoff have combined to leave the Flathead River levels in northwest Montana at about a third of normal. The Region One Communication and Education Program Manager for the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks - Dillon Tabish - said the state is considering hoot-owl restrictions for the Flathead too, because water temperatures are too high for the lake's cold-water trout. "For cutthroat trout that criteria is about 66 degrees, and then for bull trout it's about 60 degrees," said Tabish. "Once the temperatures in the water get to be that warm, these trout can be more susceptible to disease, predation, and other moratalities that can occur."
The National Weather Service predicts above average high temperatures nearing 100 degrees in parts of Montana.
Wildlife officials encourage anglers to land fish quickly and keep them in the water as long as possible to reduce stress, and they are asking anglers to report sick or struggling fish to the state. Tabish said no northwest Montana river has ever been completely closed to fishing and he said he's hopeful that can remain the case. "There are ways the fishermen can voluntarily help reduce the stress on our native trout and that's self regulating a little," said Tabish. "Not fishing during the hottest parts of the day. If there was ever a time to really be vigilant and try to reduce your impacts on our fish, now's the time." The western United States has been sweltering amid an extended and dangerous heat wave that has tied or broken records in several Montana towns and cities.

Firefighters battle two major wildfires in California (AP) — A massive wildfire burning out of control in California’s Mojave National Preserve was spreading rapidly amid erratic winds, while firefighters reported progress against another major blaze to the southwest that prompted evacuations. The York Fire that erupted Friday near the remote Caruthers Canyon area of the vast wildland preserve crossed the state line into Nevada on Sunday and sent smoke further east into the Las Vegas Valley. Wind-driven flames 20 feet (6 meters) high in some spots charred more than 110 square miles (284 square kilometers) of desert scrub, juniper and Joshua tree woodland, according to an incident update. There was zero containment.“The dry fuel acts as a ready ignition source, and when paired with those weather conditions it resulted in long-distance fire run and high flames, leading to extreme fire behavior,” the update said. No structures were threatened. To the southwest, the Bonny Fire was holding steady at about 3.4 square miles (8.8 square kilometers) in rugged hills of Riverside County. More than 1,300 people were ordered to evacuate their homes Saturday near the community of Aguanga that is home to horse ranches and wineries. Gusty winds and the chance of thunderstorms into Monday will heighten the risk of renewed growth, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection said in a statement. One firefighter was injured in the blaze, which was 5% contained. .

Huge wildfire explodes in southern California and spreads into Nevada - A huge wildfire burning out of control in California’s Mojave national preserve is spreading rapidly amid erratic winds and high temperatures. The York Fire erupted on Friday near the remote Caruthers Canyon area of the wildland preserve. It crossed the state line into Nevada on Sunday and sent smoke further east into the Las Vegas Valley. The fire is one of two major blazes burning in California as the region faces hot and dry weather. Firefighters said they had made progress battling the other blaze, the Bonny fire in Riverside county. The York Fire was mapped at roughly 120 sq miles (284 sq km) on Monday with no containment. Back in the Mojave desert, wind-driven flames that reached as high as 20ft (6m) in some spots charred tens of thousands of acres of desert scrub, juniper and Joshua tree woodland. The fire had scorched 120 sq miles by Monday and was at zero containment. Crews on Sunday battled fire whirls – sometimes also called fire tornados. The National Park Service described the phenomenon as a “spinning column of fire” that forms when intense heat and turbulent winds combine. “While these can be fascinating to observe they are a very dangerous natural phenomena that can occur during wildfires,” the park service wrote. “The dry fuel acts as a ready ignition source, and when paired with those weather conditions it resulted in long-distance fire run and high flames, leading to extreme fire behavior,” the update said. The cause of the fire remains under investigation. The US west has seen an unusually quiet fire season so far, as wet weather improved the devastating drought levels that have plagued the region and delayed the onset of fire weather conditions. But experts have warned that the reprieve would not be permanent. A historic heatwave began blasting the lower south-west US in late June, stretching from Texas across New Mexico and Arizona and into California’s desert. Phoenix sizzled through its 31st consecutive day of at least 110F (43.3C) on Sunday, while other parts of the country also grappled with record temperatures. The National Weather Service said Phoenix climbed to a high of 111F before the day was through.

Massive fire burning in California and Nevada is spawning dangerous "fire whirls" - CBS Sacramento - A massive, out-of-control fire burning across both California and Nevada is generating extreme fire behavior, spawning "fire whirls" and creating dangerous conditions for firefighters, authorities said.The fire, dubbed the York Fire, which is California's largest fire of the year, has consumed 77,000 acres and remains 0% contained as of Monday night, began Friday in the New York Mountain Range of California's Mojave National Preserve and crossed state lines into Nevada Sunday as winds picked up under scorching temperatures.The blaze is among dozens of wildfires burning around the country as some areas swelter under unrelenting heat – including one fire raging on both sides of the US-Canadian border.The fire on the California-Nevada state line is still "growing rapidly" and creating extreme conditions that are making it more dangerous and difficult to control, fire officials said Monday night.Firefighters battling the blaze have seen fire whirls – "a vortex of flames and smoke that forms when intense heat and turbulent winds combine, creating a spinning column of fire," the Mojave National Preserve said Sunday.As the fire-heated air rises, cold air dashes to take its place, creating a spinning vortex rising from a fire and carrying aloft smoke, debris, and flame – also referred to as a fire tornado in some cases."These fire whirls are similar to dust devils but are specifically associated with the heat and energy released by a wildfire," the Mojave National Preserve said. "They can range in size from a few feet to several hundred feet in height, and their rotational speed can vary widely."Fire whirls can change direction suddenly, making them unpredictable and difficult to anticipate, park service officials said. Large fire whirls can have the same intensity as a tornado. In 2018, The Carr Fire outside of Redding, California, spawned a fire tornado so destructive that it killed eight people and flattened several homes. The deadly fire had winds over 140 mph, which would equal an EF-3 tornado, or the third most intense tornado on the EF scale.Crews battling the York Fire are
facing sustained temperatures over 100 degrees that are causing difficulties for firefighters, who are increasingly relying on aerial resources.The struggle to control the York Fire has allowed smoke to reach into Nevada and southern Utah, the fire incident overview noted. There has been "elevated readings for particulate matter" in East Las Vegas, Boulder City and Henderson, according to a tweet from the Clark County, Nevada government.As hot and dry conditions continue, 64 active large fires are burning across nine states, including 12 large new fires were reported on Sunday, the National Interagency Fire Center said Monday.More than 11,500 wildland firefighters and other personnel are assigned to incidents throughout the US, the agency said.As of July 31, 1.1 million acres have burned across the US in 2023, according to the National Interagency Fire Center – still well below the 5.7 million acres that had burned by the end of July in 2022.

Watch a "fire whirl" vortex race across the Mojave Desert as a massive wildfire rages through the West - CBS News -A wildfire that started in a California national park has burned tens of thousands of acres – and is so intense that it's spewing dangerous spinning whirlwinds of fire. Officials said that the York Fire ignited in Mojave National Preservenear the end of last month, burning 30,000 acres by Sunday. Dry vegetation and high winds created "extremely challenging conditions," and in some areas, there were 20-foot flames. By the end of that same day, it spread to 70,000 acres and spread into Nevada. As National Park Service officials and first responders rushed to try and contain the fire, the park's Facebook page said that some witnesses noticed "fire whirls" on the north side of the flames. "While these can be fascinating to observe they are a very dangerous natural phenomena that can occur during wildfires," the service warned. "A fire whirl is a vortex of flames and smoke that forms when intense heat and turbulent winds combine, creating a spinning column of fire." The service said that the whirls are similar to dust devils, but form from a wildfire's heat and energy. They can get up to "several hundred feet in height, and their rotational speed can vary widely," officials said. "This weather is extremely dangerous for firefighters battling the fires. They have the potential to spread embers over long distances and can start new fires ahead of the main forefront," the Preserve's Facebook post says. "Additional fire whirls can change direction suddenly, making them unpredictable and difficult to anticipate." As of Tuesday morning, the York Fire had swept over 80,400 acres and is at 23% containment, according to official wildfire data. While the fire has since spread even farther to southern Utah, officials said "less fire activity than in the previous days" was observed. The origins of the fire remain under investigation. Officials say it started on private land within the Mojave National Preserve. "Limited visibility due to thick smoke is a challenge the firefighters are facing," they said. "With visibility up to a mile or less in some areas it has a significant implication and causes hazardous conditions, hindering firefighting operations as it affects aerial support, ground crews' movement, and communications between firefighting units."

New wildfire near Spokane prompts mandatory evacuations (AP) — A fast-moving wildfire that ignited near Spokane on Monday is prompting mandatory evacuations, Washington state officials said. The West Hallett fire started about 1:30 p.m. about 2.5 miles southwest of Spokane and had high potential for growth, the Washington State Department of Natural Resources said. RELATED Eagle Bluff fire 0% contained, evacuation notice reduced At least 20 homes are threatened. Some people in the area were told to evacuate immediately, with others warned to be set to leave, KREM-TV reported. Fourteen planes were dropping water and retardant on the flames, which had burned more than 200 acres by about 5:30 p.m., DNR officials said. No structure loss has been reported, officials said. The American Red Cross opened a shelter Monday afternoon at Cheney High School.

Montana wildfire update for July 31, 2023 - Bone dry conditions, powerful winds and multiple new wildfire starts kept ground and air firefighting resources busy in recent days. One relatively small fire late Sunday afternoon packed a powerful punch on the outskirts of Lolo south of Missoula. Firefighters kept the wind-driven grass and brush fire to approximately 20 acres, but not before it destroyed one mobile home and damaged another. According to a Missoula Rural Fire District news release, the fast moving fire destroyed four shops and garages, 12 outbuildings and damaged or totaled nearly a dozen vehicles. Three civilians were treated for smoke inhalation and one firefighter suffered a knee injury. The fire is under investigation. At least six large fires are now burning in western Montana, several burning more than 5,000 acres, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. Hot, dry and breezy conditions are expected to continue throughout the northern Rockies until at least Wednesday. Weather forecasters say cooler temperatures and maybe even some beneficial rain showers are possible late this week. Evacuation orders and warnings:

• Evacuation Orders for the Nirada Fire: from the top of the Pass on Browns Meadow Road South to Hwy 28, Nirada. This mandatory evacuation also includes Kofford Ridge Rd.
• Evacuation Warning for the Nirada Fire - Hubbart Dam Rd/NF-544 from the intersection of Crossover Rd South to Hwy 28.
• Highway 28 may be closed intermittently
• The American Red Cross of Montana opened shelters for those displaced by fires over the weekend. They are currently in stand-by, but are prepared to re-open quickly as needed.

Oregon wildfires: Bedrock Fire surpasses 10,000 acres - The now 10,659-acre Bedrock Fire in Lane County prompted an expansion of the emergency closure to include all recreation sites upstream of Fall Creek Reservoir.A full list of trails, campgrounds, recreation sites and trailheads are included in the closure order from the Forest Service. The forest also is under a level 1 fire restriction and “very high” fire danger warning.The fire has spread to the east and north up Fall Creek and continues uphill. Following a pattern, the fire has spread less than 1,000 acres a day, according to the Forest Service. The Bedrock Fire is at 3% containment.Crews are working to establish fire lines on the southwest, west and north of the fire’s edges. The Bedrock Fire basecamp relocated Monday night to the Pleasant Hill area just south of Jasper. Motorists are asked to be mindful of the growing traffic growing in the area.An air quality advisory for parts of Lane and Deschutes counties remains in effect until this afternoon. Smoky conditions are expected, especially along Highway 97. Tuesday's air quality updates:

• Oakridge should have heavy smoke into this afternoon. It is expected to clear up in the evening.
• La Pine is expected to have unhealthy conditions from the smoke until conditions start to clear tonight.
• Conditions in Redmond to Sunriver are forecast at good to moderate for most of the day.
• Moderate conditions are expected along the McKenzie Highway from Blue River to Sisters.
• Walterville, Lowell and other areas west of the Bedrock Fire also will have moderate air quality until this afternoon.

“Fuels are abnormally dry for this time of the season due to drought," fire behavior analyst Dean Warner said in explaining why the fire has been so active in late July. "Drier fuels take less energy to ignite, and burn more rapidly and intensely than wetter fuels.”A new fire was reported 4 miles west of Promise and 18 miles northeast of Elgin on Monday evening. The Grossman Fire grew to 153 acres by Tuesday morning, but lines were held overnight with low fire behavior according to the Oregon Department of Forestry. One outbuilding has been destroyed, but no evacuation notifications had been issued as Tuesday afternoon.More than 1,500 fire personnel are assigned to the Flat Fire burning near the town of Agness and the confluence of the Illinois and Rogue rivers. The acreage was listed at 25,573 today with containment at 14%.Using a mix of equipment from the ground and air, crews are continuing to push the main fire toward a prepared fire line. That strategy gives more controlled conditions for the fire team. Another burn-out operation east of Game Lake was finished Monday.

Evacuation order issued for western Canadian town as wildfire crosses over from US (Reuters) - An evacuation order for the Canadian town of Osoyoos and its surrounding district in the province of British Columbia had been issued late Saturday night due to an out-of-control wildfire that has crossed the border from the U.S. state of Washington. The wildfire, called Eagle Bluff, is approximately 4 kilometres (2.49 miles) from Osoyoos and is currently estimated to be 885 hectares (2,200 acres) in size on the Canadian side of the border, according to the British Columbia Wildfire Service. It was estimated to be around 2,000 hectares in size on the U.S. side by the BC Wildfire Service. Osoyoos has an area population of about 6,700, according to an Osoyoos economic development website. "There are Initial Attack crew personnel, several single resources, two helicopters, structure protection personnel and heavy equipment responding to the incident," BC Wildfire Service said on Sunday. The evacuation order covers the area north of the Canada-United States border to the intersection of Highway 97 and Highway 3, as well as west and north along Highway 3. Regional district of Okanagan-Similkameen information officer Erick Thompson said at a press briefing on Sunday afternoon that nothing much had changed in terms of the situation, adding they are focusing on resources on the eastern flank of the fire. "A total of 732 properties have been under evacuation order and 2,094 are under evacuation alerts. One hundred thirty two people have sought emergency support," he said.

Wildfires Are Displacing Canada’s Indigenous Communities - The country’s record-breaking fire season has led tens of thousands of Indigenous people to flee their homes and ravaged forests they rely on for sustenance. In early July, fierce wildfires fueled by dry conditions in northern Quebec laid waste to large swaths of spruce forest, destroying cabins and tourist camps. It also cut off transportation to isolated Indigenous communities over the region’s lone paved road, a 370-mile stretch of highway with little or no cell reception. Before evacuation orders were issued, residents who tried to leave along the Billy Diamond Highway, as the road is known, encountered flames and smoke that cast a dark-of-night pall in the afternoon. “I honestly wasn’t sure we’d make it out,” said Joshua Iserhoff, 45, a member of the Cree nation of Nemaska who was forced to turn back with his wife and two children and who, like other residents, eventually found another way out. “The wind was so ferocious it almost picked up the vehicle,” he said, calling the drive a “traumatic experience.” Since May, hundreds of wildfires across Canada have burned more than 47,000 square miles of forest, an area the size of New York State, and have displaced more than 25,000 Indigenous residents from British Columbia to Nova Scotia, according to government officials. ImageAn aerial view of a forest with plumes of smoke rising from fires, with orange flames visible in the left foreground. A wildfire burning in northern Quebec in June. Many Indigenous communities live in remote stretches of the province.Credit...Renaud Philippe for The New York Times The blazes have taken a particularly devastating toll on Indigenous communities because they live on the frontline of many fires and depend on forests for food and their homes are in remote areas that are not a firefighting priority since they are sparsely populated and have few buildings. The country’s Department of Indigenous Services has paid $55 million so far to communities affected by wildfires. Canada’s wildfires, whose frequency and intensity are linked to climate change, have set records for the amount of land that they have burned and have sent vast plumes of smoke across the country and into the United States. As of Friday, more than 1,000 fires were burning across Canada with more than 600 of those out of control, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center. Evacuations from Indigenous people ordered by community leaders in tandem with government officials have lasted weeks, with families sometimes separated across hundreds of miles, sleeping in hotels and gyms. Many have had to flee repeatedly already, with a little more than a month left in Canada’s fire season. Image An emergency shelter that was opened in Roberval, Quebec, in June for people forced to flee a wildfire father north in the province.Credit...Renaud Philippe for The New York Times In July, eight of the nine Cree communities in Quebec, with a collective population of about 21,000, were under total or partial evacuation orders. Some were airlifted by commercial airliners or Chinook helicopters operated by the Canadian Royal Air Force. In some Cree communities, older people, young children and those with health issues were taken out by bus along hundreds of miles of gravel roads. On an 11-hour bus ride from Nemaska to Quebec City, William Wapachee, 79, who said he had lung cancer, started coughing and had trouble breathing. Before reaching the city, he was taken by ambulance to a nearby hospital where he received oxygen. “I inhaled too much of that smoke,” Mr. Wapachee said. “Before, if we had fire, it was only in one place,” he added. “Now it seems to be a fire here, a fire there, fire everywhere.” Quebec has been hit by outbreaks of wildfires that are more common in western Canada, putting many Indigenous communities in the province at risk. “I’ve never seen that level of evacuation in Cree Nation, simultaneous communities all at once,” said Mandy Gull-Masty, who in 2021 became the first woman elected grand chief of the Cree Nation in Quebec. “Never has that happened before.”

Xcel Energy tells shareholders Marshall fire lawsuits could seriously hurt its finances - The CEO of Colorado’s largest utility continued to dispute its power lines were partially responsible for the most destructive wildfire in state history, but executives acknowledged to shareholders Thursday it might not have enough insurance coverage to pay damages in more than a half-dozen related lawsuits. In new financial filings, company executives said they were aware of at least eight lawsuits on behalf of more than 500 plaintiffs related to the Marshall fire, which killed two people, destroyed more than 1,000 homes and racked up damages estimated to total more than $2 billion.In June, the Boulder County Sheriff’s Office released findings from a year-and-a-half-long investigation that concluded Xcel Energy power lines sparked one of two small grassfires that 100 mph wins fanned into a suburban inferno on Dec. 30, 2021. “We strongly disagree with that conclusion,” Xcel CEO Robert Frenzel said on its Friday earnings call. Investigators said a second ignition source was ash from a debris fire that was intentionally set days earlier. No criminal charges were filed. Frenzel declined to discuss the Marshall fire or the lawsuits in detail but said the company was preparing a vigorous legal defense.One of the lawsuits, filed by 150 insurance companies in July, accuses the company of negligence and property damage and seeks an unspecified amount in damages. A second lawsuit filed that month on behalf of two survivors was brought by a law firm with a specialized wildfire team. That firm has worked on costly litigation related to some of the country’s largest wildfires, including the 2018 Camp fire in Paradise, Calif., and the 2020 Oregon Labor Day fire. Xcel executives said the company has about $500 million in its own insurance policies to pay for lawsuit damages. In related financial documents, the company acknowledges that might not be enough to cover the total cost of payouts if it’s found liable. That could lead to a major financial blow to the utility, the company said in financial filings, which could lead to larger bills for ratepayers.

Extreme rainfall in Telangana results in at least 23 fatalities, India - The death toll in Telangana from extreme rainfall this week has climbed to 23, as 14 more bodies were recovered on Friday, July 28, 2023, from the floodwaters in Mulugu district. This district witnessed the heaviest 24-hour rainfall in India thus far during this year’s monsoon season, surpassing even the record-breaking downpour in Chityal of Bhupalapally district earlier this week. In 24 hours to 07:00 LT on July 27, a record rainfall of 616.5 mm (24.3 inches) hammered Chityal in Bhupalapally district, Telangana, causing severe flooding in low-lying areas. The record was surpassed in 24 hours to 08:30 LT on July 28, when Telangana’s Mulugu district received an even greater 649.8 mm (25.6 inches) of rainfall. The figure was announced by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), marking it as the first time such extreme value has been observed this season. Prior to this, Gujarat’s Gir Somnath (540 mm / 21.2 inches) and Matharan (400 mm / 15.7 inches) in Maharashtra, both last week, had recorded single-day highs. As a result of this extreme rain and floods that ensued, at least 23 people lost their lives. 8 deaths occurred in the village of Kondai in Mulugu district, which was entirely inundated on Thursday. The victims were washed away by the flooded Jampanna Vagu stream, and their bodies were recovered the following day. The death toll could potentially rise further as floodwaters recede and more bodies are found, according to government sources. The situation prompted immediate action from Telangana’s Chief Secretary, Santhi Kumari, who warned district collectors, police commissioners, and superintendents of police across the state of the forecast for another 48 hours of heavy rainfall. She emphasized the need for vigilance and implementing preventive measures, as all streams, tributaries, minor irrigation tanks, and rivers had reached their full levels.

Typhoon “Doksuri” slams China with record rains after lashing Taiwan and leaving 41 dead in the Philippines - Typhoon Doksuri, which struck the Philippines, Taiwan, and China from July 26 to 29, 2023, resulted in significant damage, displacements, and fatalities. The storm left 41 dead in the Philippines before lashing Taiwan and making landfall in mainland China, causing widespread evacuations, record-breaking rainfall, and severe economic losses. Doksuri made its presence felt in the northern Philippine coastline on July 25 and 26, 2023. It caused riverbanks to burst, low-lying villages to flood, and triggered dozens of landslides, ultimately resulting in the displacement of thousands and the death of 41 people. Notably, 27 of these fatalities resulted from a passenger ship capsizing. Even as the country grappled with the aftermath, around 20 people, including four coastguard personnel involved in a rescue mission, remained missing. The storm, though slightly weakened, moved toward Taiwan on July 27, where the weather bureau issued wind and rain warnings for the southern part of the island. This included the major port city of Kaohsiung, which saw businesses and schools close and landslide warnings issued. All domestic flights were suspended while a few international ones were cancelled, and railway services between southern and eastern Taiwan ceased operation. As a precaution, over 4 000 people were evacuated, most of them in mountainous southern and eastern Taiwan where nearly 700 mm (27.5 inches) of rainfall was recorded in certain areas. Moreover, the storm led to power outages for more than 15 700 households, although most had since been restored. typhoon doksuri at 02z july 28 2023 radar rainfall bg Typhoon “Doksuri” at 02:00 UTC on July 28, 2023. Credit: JMA/Himawari-9, ZoomEarth, The Watchers typhoon doksuri jtwc fcst 15z july 26 2023 Doksuri then approached mainland China, making landfall in Jinjiang, Fujian province around 02:00 UTC on July 28. It arrived with wind speeds of up to 175 km/h (110 mph), affecting about 1.45 million people in coastal Fujian. In response, over 416 000 people were evacuated and resettled, causing over 3 billion yuan in direct economic losses according to state media reports. Doksuri was reportedly the strongest typhoon to hit Fujian since 2016. The 24-hour rainfall in downtown Fuzhou, one of the largest cities in Fujian province, reached 340 mm (13.4 inches), setting a new record and resulting in widespread floods. The provincial record was also broken in Putian, Fujian where 756 mm (29.8 inches) of rainfall was recorded in 24 hours. In just one hour, Putian was hit by 135 mm (5.3 inches) of rand. In Xiamen, a major port city on the Taiwan Strait, significant flooding and damage, including a ripped-off bus station roof, were observed.

At least 11 dead, 27 missing as remnants of Typhoon “Doksuri” drop record-breaking rain on Beijing, China - The remnants of Typhoon “Doksuri” dropped extremely heavy rains over Beijing and neighboring regions from July 29 to August 1, 2023, leaving at least 11 people dead and another 27 missing. Doksuri made landfall in Jinjiang, Fujian province around 02:00 UTC on July 28 as the strongest typhoon to hit Fujian since 2016. Before hitting China, Doksuri left at least 52 people dead in the Philippines. Doksuri continued dropping heavy rains as it continued moving inland and weakening. By 16:00 LT on July 31, Beijing had experienced 40 hours of uninterrupted rainfall. Data from official sources reveal that from 20:00 LT on July 29 to 20:00 LT on July 31, the average rainfall in the city was 207.6 mm (8.17 inches). The Mentougou District, a scenic spot, recorded an excess of 580 mm (22.8 inches) of rainfall. Incomplete statistics (due to data transfer loss) indicate a maximum rainfall in Beijing over 48 hours reaching 687 mm (27.0 inches), shattering historical records. As of 06:00 LT on Tuesday, August 1, Beijing recorded an average precipitation of 257.9 mm (10.2 inches), with the urban area averaging 235.1 mm (9.25 inches). In Mentougou and Fangshan, the average precipitation reached 470.2 mm (18.5 inches) and 414.6 mm (16.3 inches), respectively. On the same day, authorities confirmed a total of 11 people have died and 27 others remain missing. The deceased include four in Mentougou and two in Fangshan, the worst affected districts. Other fatalities include four in Changping District and one in Haidian District, according to the city’s flood control and drought relief headquarters. The 27 people reported missing include 13 in Mentougou, 10 in Changping, and four in Fangshan, Xinhua reported. So far, around 127 000 residents across the city have been relocated, up from 52 000 reported on Monday. Chinese President Xi Jinping demanded an all-out search and rescue of the people missing or trapped in floods and geological disasters in an instruction on the work regarding flood prevention and disaster relief.

20 dead, 27 missing in floods surrounding Beijing, thousands evacuated after record rain - Unusually heavy rains in and around China’s capital, Beijing, have flooded houses, ripped apart roads and left at least 20 people dead and 27 missing, Chinese state media reported on Tuesday. The deluge and subsequent flooding prompted authorities to close train stations and evacuate people in vulnerable areas to school gyms. Cars were washed away and piled into stacks by the rushing waters. Chinese state media reported that 11 people died and 27 are missing in the mountains to the west of Beijing’s city center. Nine other deaths were reported from Hebei province, just outside the metropolis and the source of much of its food and labor. More than 500,000 people have been impacted by the floods, state broadcaster CCTV said, without saying how many had been moved to other locations. The current level of rainfall has been rarely seen in Beijing earlier, which generally enjoys moderate, dry summers but has experienced record-breaking extended days of high temperatures this summer. Flooding in other parts of northern China that rarely see such large amounts of rain have led to scores of deaths. Seasonal flooding hits large parts of China every summer, particularly in the semitropical south, while some northern regions this year have reported the worst floods in 50 years.

Historic rainfall in Hebei displaces 1.2 million people — more than a year’s worth in a couple of days, China - The remnants of Typhoon “Doksuri” battered northern China from July 29 to August 1, 2023, unloading an entire year’s worth of rainfall and triggering devastating floods. The worst affected were Beijing and Hebei’s Zhuozhou where more than 1.2 million people were evacuated. At least 30 people have lost their lives and more than 30 remain missing. Unprecedented rainfall triggered by Typhoon “Doksuri” lashed Hebei province in China, affecting approximately 1.2 million residents who had to be evacuated. Zhuozhou city, known for its logistical significance and housing 600 000 inhabitants, emerged as the region worst hit by the deluge. From 08:00 LT on July 29, 2023, to 11:00 LT on August 1, 2023, an average rainfall of 355.1 mm (13.98 inches) fell on Zhuozhou, as stated by local authorities. The resultant flooding affected an area of 225.38 km2 (55 710 acres), impacting 133 913 people from 146 villages. Additionally, the water supply was severed citywide on August 1, with power outages occurring in parts of the city. As a result, by Tuesday afternoon, 125 100 people from 124 villages had been safely evacuated. Zhuozhou had formed 28 emergency rescue teams comprising 8 755 members, which collaborated with professional rescue teams, such as the Blue Sky Rescue Team, a well-known Chinese civil relief squad. However, the rescue efforts were hampered due to severed communication lines, with many residents losing cell phone connectivity. This disrupted communication, coupled with citywide power outages, severely restricted cell phone charging, leading to residents being cut-off from others. Several stranded citizens, according to online help forms, urgently required dry food, water, and medication. Zhuozhou was dealt another blow as the floods inundated hundreds of book warehouses, impacting millions of books. Similarly, several logistics groups’ transshipment warehouses also fell victim to the flooding. In a video shared with the Global Times by a local resident, Wang, the water level had engulfed cars in a nearby street. Despite the rain ceasing on Wednesday morning, the water levels were receding at a sluggish pace. The worst damage was observed in the western part of Zhuozhou. Residents were given a day’s notice to evacuate, but a second flood caused by the water breaking through the dikes left many without enough time to escape. Meanwhile, the relentless rain did not spare the capital, Beijing, which experienced its heaviest rainfall in at least 140 years. From July 29 to the morning of August 2, the city recorded a whopping 744.8 mm(29.3 inches) of rain, surpassing the previous record from 1891 when the city received 609 mm (24 inches) of rain. These rainfall statistics represent the most substantial since the first precise machine measurements began in 1883. The extreme rainfall wreaked havoc across the city, obliterating roads, disrupting power supplies, and even rupturing pipes carrying drinking water. Rivers surrounding the capital flooded, stranding numerous vehicles in waterlogged streets, and, in some cases, lifting cars onto pedestrian bridges. The Beijing downpour has left a tragic toll, with the number of confirmed deaths due to torrential rains rising to 21 on Wednesday, August 2 following the recovery of a rescuer’s body. An additional 26 people remain missing. Hebei had reported 9 deaths and 6 missing as of noon on Tuesday. As per an official from the water resources department, it may take up to a month for the floodwaters to recede entirely in Hebei, particularly in the hardest-hit city, Zhuozhou.

Waves off the California coast are getting taller due to global warming - Los Angeles Times - Ocean waves along the California coastline have long symbolized the best the state has to offer: surf-ready swells at Malibu and Rincon; the misty beauty of breakers crashing along the North Coast; the foamy, playful waves welcoming beachgoers from San Diego to Santa Cruz. But climate change has left no part of the sea unaltered. As melting glaciers and hotter temperatures force global sea levels ever higher, the height and power of ocean waves are increasing along California’s coast — and elsewhere. Using seismic data stretching back nearly a century, oceanographer Peter Bromirski of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego has found that the height of winter waves has increased by an average of nearly 12 inches since 1970. That makes them 13% taller, on average, than winter waves from 1931 to 1969.What’s more, intense storms producing waves greater than 13 feet in height occurred twice as often from 1996 to 2016 as they did from 1949 to 1969, Bromirski found. His study was published Tuesday in the Journal of Geophysical Research — Oceans.The numbers confirm what many coastal residents have experienced firsthand as they’ve seen floodwaters lap over boardwalks and cliffs crumble away: The sea is becoming harder to restrain.“Beaches usually erode quickly during storms and then recover slowly under mild wave conditions,” said Brett Sanders, who runs UC Irvine’s Flood Lab. “But when the coast experiences several storms in a row, with inadequate time for beach recovery, the impacts of winter storms magnify as we saw this year in Northern California.“Given increases in wave energy and rising sea levels,” he said, “a takeaway message is that holding back coastal erosion is becoming even more challenging.”

Solar filament eruption produces Earth-directed CME, impact expected late August 4 to early August 5 - An active filament channel in the vicinity of Region 3386 erupted simultaneously with M1.3 solar flare at 08:12 UTC on August 2, 2023, producing an Earth-directed CME. A type II and IV radio sweeps were associated with the event, indicating a strong coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. The CME became visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery off the SW limb starting at 09:36 UTC. Analysis and modeling for this event indicate a likely hit at Earth, with an anticipated arrival from late August 4 to early August 5. soho lasco c2 10z august 2 2023 Solar activity intensified on August 1, with 13 M-class solar flares to 16:30 UTC on August 3, primarily from Region 3380: Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flaring likely (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on August 3 as Region 3380 makes its way to the western limb and Region 3392 continues to grow. By August 4 and 5, activity is expected to see a slight decrease as 3380 rotates off the visible disk. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels in 24 hours to 12:30 UTC today while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels through August 5 and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels, with a slight chance for an S1 – Minor radiation event due to flare potential and recent activity from AR 3380. Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning transient influences during the same period. Solar wind speed remained below 400 km/s, the total field was near 11 nT before dropping below 5 nT by 15:00 UTC on August 2, and the Bz component was mostly +/- 5 nT. Phi angle was variable. Slightly enhanced conditions are expected to persist through the rest of August 3, followed by enhancements late on August 4 to early August 5 as CMEs produced on August 1 and 2 arrive. There is a chance for G2 – Moderate storms in conjunction with the anticipated arrival of the aforementioned CMEs.

CME impacts Earth, producing G3 - Strong geomagnetic storming - A coronal mass ejection (CME) produced by filament eruption on August 2, 2023, combined with a smaller CME produced on August 1 and reached our planet at 02:53 UTC on August 5.The geomagnetic field responded with a G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm at 03:35 UTC. Geomagnetic K-index of 6 (G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm) threshold was reached at 04:20 UTC, followed by G3 -Strong geomagnetic storm (K-index of 7) at 05:59 UTC. The conditions briefly subsided by 07:21 UTC to G1 – Minor storm levels.G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm potential impacts (area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude):

• Induced currents – Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
• Spacecraft – Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
• Navigation – Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
• Radio – HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
• Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

Solar activity in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on August 5 reached moderate levels. Region 3386 (beta) produced a long-duration M1.9 solar flare at 04:24 UTC on August 5. The associated CME was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 04:28 UTC. It was the largest event of the period. The analysis of the event shows the potential for a glancing blow around early to midday on August 7. soho lasco c2 cme 0736z august 5 2023 The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels during the period, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. Solar wind parameters became enhanced around 06:55 UTC on August 4, possibly due to weak transient activity. Total field increased from 10 nT to a maximum of 16 nT with the Bz component +/-12 nT. Solar wind speed briefly increased to around 450 km/s around midday before diminishing to near 400 km/s. Phi angle was positive. M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity is likely on August 5, followed by low solar activity with just a chance for M-class flares on August 6 and 7. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through August 7. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels during the same period, with a slight chance for an S1 – Minor radiation event today due to the flare potential of Region 3380. Unsettled and active geomagnetic field levels are expected on August 6 as CME effects slowly diminish. A possible glancing blow from the August 4 CME will likely cause unsettled to active levels on August 7.

The climate crisis reaches a tipping point - A joint statement released Thursday by the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirms that the first three weeks of July have been the warmest three-week period ever recorded and predicts that the month will be the hottest ever experienced by human civilization. Carlo Buontempo, the director of C3S, noted as part of the statement, “Record-breaking temperatures are part of the trend of drastic increases in global temperatures. Anthropogenic emissions are ultimately the main driver of these rising temperatures.” He continued, “July’s record is unlikely to remain isolated this year, C3S’ seasonal forecasts indicate that over land areas temperatures are likely to be well above average, exceeding the 80th percentile of climatology for the time of year.” The record broken this July was last set in August 2016, when the global average temperature spiked to 16.92 degrees Celsius (62.46 degrees Fahrenheit), as measured by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). But since July 3, the worldwide temperature averaged every 24 hours skyrocketed past that, reaching a new height of 17.23 C (63.01 F) on July 6. The coolest day since then was July 14, falling to 16.94 C (62.49 F), still just above the previous peak. Earth’s tropics and Northern Hemisphere have been hit particularly hard by the ongoing heatwave, with temperatures in those regions currently about 0.9 C (1.6 F) and 1.2 C (2.1 F) above average, respectively. Ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic have been shattering seasonal records since March, reaching almost 1.5 C (2.7 F) above average, while world ocean temperatures outside the poles remain 0.8 C (1.4 F) above average, including a new record 21.1 C (69.98 F), also set in March. It is increasingly likely that 2023 as a whole will become the hottest year ever recorded. Among the most catastrophic consequences of the record temperatures this year have been the wildfires in Canada, which have burned more than 100,000 square kilometers (38,600 square miles), nearly double the previous record set in 1989, and blanketed the North American Northeast with toxic levels of smoke and ash. Large portions of Southern Europe, the Middle East, South Asia and the entire Southern US were or still are under heat alerts. Floods have killed 47 people in the US, including 13 from the flash floods in July, while wildfires in Europe and North Africa have killed more than 40. Hundreds have died from heat stroke in Algeria, China, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Mexico and Spain. Moreover, the disasters caused by climate change now are the precursors to even more catastrophic events. The water temperatures off the Florida coast—38.38 C (101.1 F)—and the extent of Antarctic sea ice—more than 2.6 million square kilometers (about 1 million square miles) below average—are indicators of what is to come. Warming oceans threaten critical coral systems and the global plankton population with disease and mass die-off, which in turn threatens the base of the entire food chain. The lack of Antarctic sea ice constantly poses the mortal danger of land ice falling into the ocean, raising ocean levels worldwide and permanently flooding coastal areas where an estimated 3 billion people live. There is no longer any doubt that global warming has been caused by the exploitation of Earth’s resources by anarchic capitalist production, particularly the essentially unregulated burning of coal, oil and natural gas for a century and a half. The pressing question is for a resolution to the ongoing and accelerating ecological crisis. In response to the C3S and WMO report, UN Secretary-General António Guterres noted at a press conference that “Humanity is in the hot seat [and] humans are to blame.” This is a false equivalency, and Guterres knows this. “Humanity” is not to blame; capitalism is. What really blocks every effort to seriously address the climate crisis is the profit system, the subordination of economic life to private profit and the division of the world into rival nation-states.

Climate change made July hotter for four out of five people on Earth: study --More than 80 percent of people on earth experienced hotter temperatures in July than they would have without the impacts of climate change, according to research released Wednesday by Climate Central.The nonprofit analyzed the July climate for 4,711 cities around the world and found that for more than 6.5 billion people, or over 80 percent of the world population, there was at least one day in the past month with a Climate Shift Index (CSI) of at least three, or high temperatures made at least three times more likely due to the effects of human-caused climate change.The research also found that at least 2 billion people worldwide experienced a CSI level of at least 3 on every day of July. The number of people experiencing that level of heat peaked on July 10, when the nonprofit projected 3.5 billion people experienced a CSI level of at least 3.Island states were particularly vulnerable to climate impacts, echoing frequent warnings by those nations’ leaders. Of those states, including 11 Caribbean nations, 16 were among the 28 countries with an average CSI of 5 for the month — that is, conditions that climate change made at least five times more likely.Nearly 900 cities worldwide had at least 25 days in July with a CSI level of 3 or higher, many of them in the Middle East or the global south. They include Mexico City; Tampa, Fla.; Havana; Alexandria, Egypt; and Algiers, Algeria.Although the end of July was too recent for most research, including that of Climate Central, to be peer-reviewed, early data indicate July was on track to be the hottest month ever recorded. The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service both determined last week that the first three weeks of the month was the hottest three-week period on record, with July 6 the hottest single day ever recorded.

Climate change is hitting close to home for nearly 2 out of 3 Americans, poll finds - At the end of the hottest month on record, which left millions in the United States sweltering under heat advisories, nearly two-thirds of U.S. adults say that climate change is noticeably affecting their local communities, and a majority also see climate change as causing serious effects right now, according to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Maristpoll. “People see that climate change is already a threat and will continue to be a growing threat in the future, and they support changes to keep people safe and prepared, especially on the local level,” said Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central, an independent research and communication organization.Human-driven global warming has long been a divisive issue in the U.S., thanks in part to decades of polarizing messaging from industry, political figures and others. As the world experiences extreme heat and other climate change-driven events with increasing frequency, people’s views on what’s happening still vary widely, and often according to their political alignments.Most Democrats — 87 percent — think climate change is a major threat. That’s compared to around a quarter of Republicans and about half of independents.Slightly more than a third of Republicans and independents said they consider climate change a minor threat, compared to 10 percent of Democrats. A third of Republicans said they don’t consider climate change a threat at all, compared to 11 percent of independents and 3 percent of Democrats.“It’s really hard to bring people on different ends of the political spectrum together on this issue,”

Report Shows That Inflation Reduction Act Alone Won't Set United States on Track for Net Zero | BloombergNEF --The US’s transition to a net-zero economy by 2050 represents a $30 trillion investment opportunity in the country’s energy system by 2050, according to the New Energy Outlook: US report, published today by research company BloombergNEF (BNEF). The report details a pathway for the US energy system to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 using the lowest cost technologies available. This so-called Net Zero Scenario (NZS) is presented alongside two other scenarios: a Policy Scenario evaluating the decarbonizing impact of key provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, and an Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) that deploys the cheapest energy technologies without consideration for climate goals.The power sector is one of the largest sources of carbon emissions in the US today, but it is also the sector that is decarbonizing the most rapidly. However, it needs to go farther and faster, as it plays a key role in the country realizing a net-zero economy. BNEF’s modeling finds that the cheapest way for the US to reduce emissions involves scaling up investment in wind and solar power, along with low-carbon dispatchable electricity. In BNEF’s Net Zero Scenario, wind and solar installations reach 3,292 gigawatts by 2050, up from 288 gigawatts in 2022. Solar capacity alone reaches 2,065 gigawatts of installed capacity by 2050, split between rooftop systems and large-scale projects.In all scenarios, remaining coal generation shuts down during the 2030s, but natural gas continues to play a role in the power grid in 2050. In the Net Zero Scenario, all gas generation in 2050 is paired with CCS. The Policy Scenario finds that by 2028, gas generation coupled with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is cost-competitive against unabated gas, after accounting for tax credits. However, CCS tax credits are set to phase out just when the technology begins to see adoption. If extended through 2050, some 205 gigawatts of gas with CCS would see adoption in the power sector, and this would offset emissions from 45% of gas generation in that year.

Errors and missing info highlighted as carbon pipeline hearing continues - South Dakota Searchlight -- Public utilities commissioners denied a motion to withhold a permit for a liquid carbon dioxide pipeline Thursday, but they acknowledged lacking some useful information from the company applying to build it. It was the seventh day of a hearing at the Casey Tibbs Rodeo Center in Fort Pierre, with more days to come. Navigator CO2 is the company seeking to build the 1,300-mile, multi-state Heartland Greenway pipeline. Public Utilities Commission Chairwoman Kristie Fiegen – one of the three elected commissioners tasked with deciding on a permit for the project – asked why the commission is expected to make such a consequential decision, “yet there are errors, we’re missing stuff.” She was referring to a number of incomplete safety, cultural and environmental surveys, and errors that have appeared in some of the information given to the commission. An attorney for the commission, Kristen Edwards, asked the company, “Why didn’t Navigator wait to file for a permit until more surveying was completed?” Representatives of the company said they have ample time for more surveys, thorough analyses, and communication with impacted communities. South Dakota is the first state to hold hearings on the five-state proposal. The projected $3 billion project would capture emissions from 21 ethanol and multiple fertilizer plants, and compress the gas into a liquid form for transport. It would then be injected underground or used for industrial and commercial purposes, such as in oil extraction or as dry ice. The project would be eligible for $1.3 billion annually in federal tax credits for combating climate change by reducing atmospheric carbon. It would span 112 miles in five South Dakota counties: Brookings, Moody, Minnehaha, Lincoln and Turner. Brian Sterner, an environmental consultant and soil biologist, testified Thursday that he and a colleague “share the concern” that permitting the project prior to the completion of all the environmental analyses may be premature. Brian Jorde, a lawyer representing impacted landowners, cited those issues and the company’s earlier failure to provide timely notice to 204 affected South Dakotans along the would-be-route. He moved to deny the permit. The three commissioners rejected the motion. “There are still things we need to learn,” said Commissioner Chris Nelson. “We need all the facts on the table.” The route of the proposed Heartland Greenway pipeline. (Courtesy of Navigator CO2) The route of the proposed Heartland Greenway pipeline. (Courtesy of Navigator CO2) Negotiations have produced easements with 30% of affected landowners, with the company offering an average of $24,000 per acre, according to company officials. Navigator has not yet used eminent domain, a legal process for gaining access to land when a landowner won’t grant it. Carbon pipeline regulations are currently under federal review in response to a 2020 Mississippi pipeline leak and carbon dioxide plume that hospitalized 45 people. That triggered California to halt the construction of new CO2 pipelines in that state until the federal review is complete. Navigator CO2 has testified that federal regulators are aware of the project and haven’t voiced concerns. The company’s analysis shows an annual 1% risk of a leak or rupture per 1,000 miles. Hearings are scheduled to continue through Saturday, and the commissioners’ decision is due by Sept. 26. Another multi-state carbon pipeline that would cross parts of eastern South Dakota, proposed by Summit Carbon Solutions, is scheduled to have its permit hearing Sept. 11-22.

Companies With Good ESG Scores Pollute Just As Much As Those With Low Ones, New Analysis Finds As if there wasn't exhaustive enough evidence that "ESG" is nothing but a scam, the Financial Times was out this week with a piece detailing how many companies with good ESG scores pollute just as much as their lower-rated rivals.Don't say we didn't warn you; we have been writing about the ESG con for years now, which along with other "sustainable" investments continues to see hundreds of billions of dollars in inflows from investors. The FT added to our skepticism by revealing this week that Scientific Beta, an index provider and consultancy, found that companies rated highly on ESG metrics - and even just the 'Environmental' variable alone - often pollute just as much as other companies. Researchers look at ESG scores from Moody’s, MSCI and Refinitiv when performing the analysis. They found that when the 'E' component was singled out, it led to a “substantial deterioration in green performance”.Felix Goltz, research director at Scientific Beta told the Financial Times: “ESG ratings have little to no relation to carbon intensity, even when considering only the environmental pillar of these ratings. It doesn’t seem that people have actually looked at [the correlations]. They are surprisingly low.”He added: "The carbon intensity reduction of green [ie low carbon intensity] portfolios can be effectively cancelled out by adding ESG objectives."“On average, social and governance scores more than completely reversed the carbon reduction objective,” he continued. “It can very well be that a high-emitting firm is very good at governance or employee satisfaction. There is no strong relationship between employee satisfaction or any of these things and carbon intensity."

New Report Card Shows Where Ohio Needs to Catch up in Cutting Greenhouse Gas Emissions - -Ohio is just over halfway toward the economy-wide greenhouse gas emission cuts a new analysis says it would need by 2030 to help the United States meet its commitment under the Paris Climate Agreement. Yet without significant changes, Ohio will fall about one-third short of meeting that target.The state isn’t alone in being behind, according to scorecards for 20 states updated this month by RMI with help from Climate XChange. Researchers selected the group to represent a diversity of industries, geography and policy approaches. Among the 20, only Washington is projected to meet its full share of economy-wide cuts towards the 2030 goal, as calculated under the analysis.Yet Ohio stands out as needing the largest share of cuts to meet the 2030 goal, as well as for its policy actions over the past decade that give an edge to fossil fuels, despite ongoing climate change.The 196 countries that signed the Paris Climate Agreement pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to levels each country would determine for itself. The United States’ commitment, set by the Biden administration in 2021, calls for a 50- to 52-percent cut in economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. The national goal by 2050 is to have net-zero emissions.The United States’ gross total greenhouse gas emissions in 2005 were equivalent to nearly 7.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Gas Inventory show. That’s just behind the 2007 peak, which was about 34 million metric tons higher.Of course, the levels and types of pollution aren’t the same across the country. Some moves are more efficient at cutting greenhouse gas emissions than others. And some strategies can be deployed more quickly than others. So, assuming each state should achieve 52 percent overall cuts would be extremely easy for some states, but very challenging for others, said Nathan Iyer, an RMI researcher who worked on the scorecard team.“Instead, we take a national policy scenario with achievable policies for each sector,” Iyer said, such as retiring all coal-fired power plants by 2030 and achieving 100 percent electric vehicle sales by 2035. Looking at emissions data and other publicly available information helped the researchers identify where states were particularly lagging.The result was a set of state-specific economy-wide targets with goals for different sectors and subsectors. The team calculated each state’s current progress towards those goals. The work also factored in state policies, planned generation retirements, estimated prices for clean energy and other factors to estimate how close states will come to their finish lines by 2030.

Ohio Supreme Court rejects challenge to 71-turbine wind farm – The Ohio Supreme Court rejected a challenge Thursday seeking to block construction of a 71-turbine wind farm in northern Ohio.The court unanimously rejected claims from plaintiffs that state regulators failed to consider adverse effects to the area’s water supply, noise, “shadow flicker,” and impacts to birds.In January 2019, Firelands Wind, a subsidiary of Apex Clean Energy, applied to the Ohio Power Siting Board to build a wind farm spanning 32,000 acres in Huron and Erie counties with a capacity of nearly 300 megawatts.Local residents, plus an organization called the Black Swamp Bird Observatory, challenged the development’s permit. Along with some procedural arguments, the plaintiffs alleged a number of purported environmental risks from the wind turbines. This included contamination to groundwater, noise that will cause “stress, annoyance and health damage,” interruptions to bird migration, harm to insect-eating bats, and more.On each count, the justices ruled against the plaintiffs, and in several instances noted that the OPSB heeded their concerns and adjusted the permit issued to developers.Alongside the Firelands case, the justices are currently reviewing four similar challenges to permits granted to solar farms in Ohio.Apex spokesman Brian O’Shea said the company plans to begin construction on the project by late 2024, with blades in motion by the end of 2025. He said the project will generate enough energy to power over 85,000 homes per year.“We look forward to bringing the project’s significant community benefits to Erie and Huron County communities, including new tax revenue for local governments and schools, good-paying jobs for Ohio construction workers, and dependable income for local farmers and landowners,” he said.An attorney for the plaintiffs didn’t respond to an inquiry.

Power line electrocutions are no longer biggest threat to Idaho birds, Boise State study shows - Illegal shooting along power lines is the leading cause of death for many protected bird species in Idaho and its neighboring states, according to newresearch from Boise State University. Eve Thomason, the lead author of the study and a recent graduate of BSU’s raptor biology master’s program, partnered with private, state and federal agencies to examine the leading cause of death for birds near power lines in the Western U.S. Between 2019 and 2022, Thomason’s research team collected a total of 410 dead birds along 120 miles of power lines in Idaho, Wyoming, Utah and Oregon.In a phone interview, Thomason told the Idaho Capital Sun that her graduate research looks into the assumption that electrocution is the greatest threat to birds along power lines. The research team sent all 410 carcasses to the Idaho Department of Fish and Game Wildlife’s forensic lab for X-rays where examiners were able to determine the cause of death for 175 of them — in which 66% of those birds died from gunshot. Of the birds that were shot, only one of them — a pigeon — was not listed as a protected species. The remaining birds shot included bald eagles, golden eagles and several species of hawks. Lab results showed that most of the birds died from gunshots, while death by electrocution and collisions were split evenly:

Electric lines kill birds. But they're a lot better than climate change -- Audubon is out with a new report, published today, that makes the case for displacing fossil fuels by building a lot more renewable energy infrastructure — even if some of that infrastructure kills or harms certain birds.The report focuses specifically on power lines.Titled, “Birds and Transmission: Building the Grid Birds Need,” the report cites Princeton University research finding that 80% of the potential cuts in planet-warming pollution made possible by the Inflation Reduction Act — the climate bill signed last year by President Biden — could be lost if the nation fails to accelerate the build-out of its electric grid. That’s because transmission lines are crucial toolsfor carrying solar and wind energy from places where they’re cheap and abundant to cities that use lots of power.Audubon also references a study from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimating the U.S. may need to build as many as 10,000 miles of new power lines a year to reach 100% clean energy by 2035, as urged by many scientists and activists.There’s no question that electric lines kill birds — as do wind turbinesand solar farms.But as Audubon points out, human activities and infrastructure are estimated to kill several billion birds in the U.S. every year — including at least 365 million from collisions with buildings and 89 million from vehicle collisions. Power lines, by comparison, kill an estimated 57 million birds at the high end — with even smaller numbers of avian deaths from wind and solar farms.

EPA says it is poised to reject Alabama's plan for coal ash management (AP) — The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday said it is poised to reject Alabama’s proposal to take over coal ash regulation, saying the state plan does not do enough to protect people and waterways. The agency issued a proposed denial of the Alabama Department of Environmental Management’s application to allow the state permit program to operate in lieu of the federal program. The agency said in a news release that Alabama’s program is less protective of people and waterways than federal regulations require. “Exposure to coal ash can lead to serious health concerns like cancer if the ash isn’t managed appropriately,” said EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan. “Low-income and underserved communities are especially vulnerable to coal ash in waterways, groundwater, drinking water, and in the air.” The agency said it identified deficiencies in ADEM’s permits with closure requirements for unlined surface impoundments, groundwater monitoring networks, and corrective action requirements.ADEM disputed the EPA’s preliminary finding, saying the “permits issued by ADEM for the closure of coal ash impoundments and the remediation of groundwater around the impoundments meet all state and federal requirements and are protective of human health and the environment.” Coal ash is what remains when coal is burned to generate electricity. Coal ash contains contaminants such as mercury, chromium and arsenic associated with cancer and other health problems. “By proposing to deny ADEM’s application to take over coal ash regulation in Alabama, the EPA has stood up for Alabama communities and our state’s clean water,” said Barry Brock, director of The Southern Environmental Law Center’s Alabama office. “ADEM has repeatedly allowed Alabama Power and TVA to leave coal ash beside our rivers and lakes, sitting deep in groundwater, and threatening communities and our water resources,” Brock said.

Why The World Just Can't Kick Coal --- One of the primary reasons for the decline in U.S. coal demand is the increased availability and affordability of natural gas. The advent of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and advanced drilling techniques led to a significant expansion of natural gas production, resulting in lower natural gas prices. Many power plants have shifted from coal to natural gas as it produces fewer greenhouse gas emissions and can be more economically viable.At the same time, there has been substantial growth in renewable energy sources like wind and solar. Falling costs and government incentives have made renewable energy more attractive for power generation, reducing the need for coal-based electricity.Stricter environmental regulations on emissions, especially from coal-fired power plants, helped drive this shift. The regulatory changes were implemented to address air and water pollution, as well as climate change concerns. These regulations have made coal-based electricity generation less competitive compared to cleaner alternatives.These are positive developments given coal’s role as the fossil fuel source with the highest carbon dioxide emissions.However, it’s very important to note that U.S. demand is small relative to the world. The U.S. uses only 6.6% of the world’s coal, so coal consumption trends outside the U.S. are even more important. Coal consumption is still high and growing in many developing countries, particularly in Asia. This is due to the relative cheapness and abundance of coal, as well as the rapid industrialization of these countries.China, for example, consumes 55% of the world’s coal, and that consumption continues to rise. As a whole, the Asia Pacific region is responsible for 81% of the world’s coal consumption, as well as the vast majority of the world’s ongoing carbon dioxide emissions.China’s coal demand has increased for six straight years, setting new record highs in 2021 and 2022. Current heat waves in China have created a soaring demand for electricity, leading to unprecedented amounts of coal consumption at China’s more than 1,000 coal-fired power plants. As a result, China is on track to set a new record high for coal consumption in 2023.This trend is set to continue. Last year the Chinese government approved a record-breaking 86 gigawatts of new coal-fired power capacity. This raises significant doubts about whether China can meet its emissions goals by 2030.Although China is the single biggest coal consumer, trends in developed countries have reversed since 2020. Prior to 2020, developed countries, especially in Europe and North America, were significantly reducing their coal consumption.But demand rebounded in the U.S. in 2021, and in the EU in 2021 and 2022. That trend has continued into 2023. The primarily culprit has been the energy crisis in Europe, with led several European countries to delay coal plant phase-outs and increase coal burning as an emergency measure to compensate for reduced Russian natural gas supplies.Coal companies in the U.S., which had been battered for years, surged as coal demand bounced back. Peabody Energy, which hit a low of $1.05 per share in November 2020, is now around $22 a share. Arch Resources saw its profits jump 12-fold from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022, and its share price quadrupled in response. Consol Energy saw its share price go from $4 in 202o to nearly $70 today.Thus, the market is being incentivized to continue producing coal, because despite the need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, coal consumption continues to grow.

Will China Ever Be Able To Kick Coal? - While China crushes the competition in terms of clean energy spending, the country is also almost single-handedly keeping the global coal industry alive and well. The story of China’s renewable revolution has always taken place against the backdrop of a severe and persevering reliance on coal. This is by design. China’s place at the helm of global renewable energy expansion has never been about decarbonization – it’s about energy security. Renewable energy in China is not poised to displace coal, but is being developed in tandem as another source of energy production to add to the energy mix to try to produce sufficient supply in a country where energy demand is virtually insatiable. Last year, China alone was responsible for nearly half of global spending in the renewable energy sector in 2022, at a whopping $546 billion. That’s nearly four times the $141 billion that the U.S. spent. The European Union came in second place, at $180 billion, according to figures from a recent BloombergNEF analysis. The International Energy Agency projects that China’s spending on renewable energy will average nearly $250 billion a year between 2021 and the end of 2023, which is approximately as much as every rich nation combined. And China shows no sign of slowing down. China is expected to install 154 gigawatts of solar panels in 2023, accounting for nearly half the global total (344GW), as well as to produce more than half of the global share of wind power brought online between now and 2030. Beijing is also reaping major benefits from its dominant positioning in global renewable supply chains. China’s solar panel supply chain is so enormous that it’s already approaching the scale needed for the world to hit net zero, . But China isn’t just the King of Green, it’s also the planet’s biggest champion of coal – the dirtiest fossil fuel. lmost all of the coal plants greenlit last year were in China, and Beijing’s current pace of new coal-fired power plant approval is currently trending upward, and is now at its highest level since 2016. “The world’s coal consumption would have peaked in 2018 were it not for the additional 862 million tons of annual production China has added since — a pile of solid fuel equivalent to every ton burned in the US and European Union, put together,” Bloomberg reported earlier this month. Indeed, China has the ability to make or break the world’s ability to meet global climate goals and emissions targets. China has the second biggest economy in the world (second only to the United States), but it is the world’s single largest greenhouse gas emitter. In order for the world to reach global decarbonization pledges, China will not only have to continue its green energy spending spree, it will also have to phase out its coal sector. This will not be easy. Coal is synonymous with energy security in China. Time and time again when other forms of power have failed, coal has been a stalwart fallback. Just this year, as drought has majorly stressed China’s massive hydropower sector, the coal sector has stepped up production to keep the lights on. Coal is not just deeply embedded in China’s energy security strategy, it’s also a symbol of reliability and safety in the cultural conscience. Quitting coal isn’t just difficult for China – it’s deeply scary. According to Joanna Lewis, an associate professor of energy and environment at Georgetown University, China fears that dropping coal as an energy source would lead to elevated risk of economic and political instability. “I think there’s this fear of moving away from the status quo and into this new realm of clean and advanced energy technologies, even though they’re extremely well positioned to do so,” she was quoted by Popular Science last year.

The first US nuclear reactor built from scratch in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia (AP) — The first American nuclear reactor to be built from scratch in decades is sending electricity reliably to the grid, but the cost of the Georgia power plant could discourage utilities from pursuing nuclear power as a path to a carbon-free future. Georgia Power Co. announced Monday that Unit 3 at Plant Vogtle, southeast of Augusta, has completed testing and is now in commercial operation, seven years late and $17 billion over budget. At its full output of 1,100 megawatts of electricity, Unit 3 can power 500,000 homes and businesses. A number of other utilities in Georgia, Florida and Alabama are receiving the electricity, in addition to the 2.7 million customers of Southern Co. subsidiary Georgia Power. “This hadn’t been done in this country from start to finish in some 30-plus years,” Chris Womack, CEO of Atlanta-based Southern Co. said Monday in a telephone interview. “So to do this, to get this done, to get this done right, is a wonderful accomplishment for our company, for the state and for the customers here in Georgia.” A fourth reactor is also nearing completion at the site, where two earlier reactors have been generating electricity for decades. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission on Friday said radioactive fuel could be loaded into Unit 4, a step expected to take place before the end of September. Unit 4 is scheduled to enter commercial operation by March.

Vogtle 3 nuclear reactor is finally, seriously — for real — online - Georgia Power’s much-anticipated, long-delayed Plant Vogtle Unit 3 nuclear reactor is finally sending electricity to the grid and serving customers across the state.On Monday, the Atlanta-based utility said the 1,100-megawatt unit had entered commercial operations — making it America’s first newly built nuclear reactor to achieve such a milestone in more than three decades.A second 1,100 MW reactor, Unit 4, is in the final stages of construction and testing. Operations are slated to start in the late fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of 2024, according to Georgia Power, which is a subsidiary of Southern Company. At full operations, each unit can power an estimated 500,000 homes and businesses with carbon-free electricity. “This project shows just how new nuclear [energy] can and will play a critical role in achieving a clean energy future for the United States,” Chris Womack, president and CEO of Southern Company, said in a statement.Nuclear power analysts are less convinced that the Vogtle plant expansion — which has been plagued by cost overruns and delays — signals the dawn of a nuclear renaissance. As Canary Media’s Eric Wesoff recently put it, ​“It’s more like the swan song of the conventional nuclear industry in the U.S.”The project in eastern Georgia has become a glaring example of the challenges associated with building new nuclear reactors. Construction on Units 3 and 4 began in 2009, with plans to bring them online by 2017. Initially, the two reactors were expected to cost $14 billion. Today, six years overdue, the project is slated to cost utility customers over $30 billion, or more than double the original price tag.As Georgia Power grappled with spending freezes and lawsuits, the Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office provided up to $12 billion in loan guarantees in 2019 to help complete the project. Former Energy Secretary Rick Perry said the Vogtle project was key to strengthening national security and ​“rebuilding a highly skilled U.S. nuclear workforce and supply chain for the future.”Nuclear power provides nearly 20 percent of U.S. electricity generation — a number that’s held flat in recent years as the amount of coal-fired power declined, and as fossil gas, wind and solar resources have climbed. Vogtle’s expansion is expected to account for about 4 percent of new U.S. electricity capacity this year.

Judge dismisses charges against ex-Westinghouse exec in remaining VC Summer fraud case — In the final case surrounding a botched $9 billion South Carolina nuclear plant, a federal judge dismissed fraud charges against the executive whose company failed to complete the project which left ratepayers on the hook to cover the cost of a power plant that never came to fruition.U.S. District Judge Mary Geiger Lewis ruled that a number of grand jurors who voted to indict former Westinghouse executive Jeffrey Benjamin on mail and securities fraud charges were potentially biased because some of there were ratepayers.“Benjamin is entitled to a grand jury free from his alleged victims,” Lewis wrote in her order dismissing the case.Federal prosecutors were unavailable for comment but still hold the option to try re-indicting Benjamin. When former electric provider SCANA and the state-owned utility Santee Cooper, a partner in the failed venture, sought in the late 2000s to construct two nuclear reactors north of Columbia, they contracted with Westinghouse, where Benjamin was senior vice president, to manage the project. After construction wore on for more than a decade, former SCANA executives were accused of concealing cost overruns and flaws in the building of the plants in order to raise the value of stock of SCANA on the New York Stock Exchange.The project was ambitious yet could have provided decades worth of clean energy to millions of South Carolinians. But in July 2017, the utility halted construction, leading to mass layoffs and an eventual buyout of SCANA by Virginia-based Dominion Energy.

Gulfport Drilling Marcellus (Not Utica) Wells in Belmont Co., OH - Gulfport Energy, the third-largest driller in the Ohio Utica Shale (by the number of wells drilled), emerged from bankruptcy in May 2021 with a new board and top management. In January of this year, the company appointed a new CEO, John Reinhart, the former President and CEO of M-U driller Montage Resources Corporation before that company was gobbled up by Southwestern Energy, Yesterday Gulfport issued its second quarter 2023 update. The company made $78 million in net income during 2Q23 versus $216 million in 2Q22, down 64%, which tracks with similar decreases seen in other major M-U drillers. “We have identified 15,000 net reservoir acres in Belmont County in eastern Ohio for Marcellus development and in 2022 we added 8 PUD Marcellus locations within our Utica operating area. Our Marcellus development area is 3,500 to 4,500 feet shallower than the Utica.”

FERC Approves Constr. Startup for Ohio Valley Connector Expansion - Marcellus Drilling News - In February 2022, Equitrans Midstream announced it had filed a new pipeline expansion project with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (see Equitrans Files New $160M Pipe Expansion Project with FERC). Called the Ohio Valley Connector Expansion Project (or OVCX), the $160 million project will add compression along Equitrans pipelines in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia that allow the company to flow an extra 350 MMcf/d (million cubic feet per day) of natural gas. The big news coming from yesterday’s Equitrans 2Q update is that FERC issued a notice on July 31st allowing Equitrans to begin construction on OVCX. Equitrans said construction will begin “in the coming days.”

Equitrans to begin construction of Ohio Valley Connector expansion project --Equitrans Midstream expects construction of the 350-MMcfd Ohio Valley Connector expansion (OVCX) project to begin soon, on target for incremental capacity in-service by first-half 2024. The company provided the update as part of its second-quarter report on Aug. 1. On June 15, Equitrans received from the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) a certificate of public convenience and necessity for expansion project, and on July 27, the US Army Corps of Engineers issued the project's last outstanding approval. On July 31, FERC issued the Notice to Proceed. OVCX will increase deliverability on ETRN's Ohio Valley Connector pipeline and is designed to meet growing demand in markets in the mid-continent and Gulf Coast through existing interconnects with long-haul pipelines in Clarington, Ohio (OGJ Online, Jan. 24, 2023). The 37-mile Ohio Valley Connector’s current capacity is 850 MMcfd. Equitrans expects to invest about $160 million in the project, which is primarily supported by a long-term firm capacity commitment of 330 MMcfd.

DT Midstream Makes FID on New Greenfield Pipeline in Ohio Utica - Marcellus Drilling News - DT Midstream (DTM), headquartered in Detroit, owns major assets in the Marcellus/Utica region and other regions. DTM issued its second quarter 2023 update yesterday. The company announced it had reached a final investment decision (FID) to build a new greenfield gathering system in the Ohio Utica Shale. The gathering system will transport associated gas from new wells being drilled in the rich window of the Utica.

DT Midstream to Build New Utica Shale Infrastructure - DT Midstream Inc. is ramping up investment in greenfield and other growth projects, including a buildout of infrastructure in Ohio’s Utica Shale, the company said in its second-quarter 2023 report released on Aug. 1. The company reached a finalized development plan for an emerging associated gas resource development area in the Utica, where E&Ps such as EOG Resources have been developing what it calls its “Ohio Utica Combo” play. DTM expects to invest approximately $100 million in the next year to develop the area with an initial gathering backbone buildout of more than 200 MMcf/d, according to the company’s second-quarter 2023 earnings presentation. DTM’s plan is to develop a large-scale, multi-year natural gas gathering system to transport gas from wells in the Utica and integrate the resource with DTM’s downstream assets, including the Nexus and Vector pipelines and the Detroit-area’s Washington 10 Storage Complex, according to the company’s earnings call. DT Midstream also provided updates on its carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) project in Louisiana, announcing it is on track for the project’s projected timeline with the filing of a Class V characterization well permit application. So far in 2023, DTM has invested approximately $15 million into the Louisiana CCS project, which entails capture equipment, a new CO2 pipeline and storage development, and targets a proximal geological storage formation with a capacity of over 1 million tonnes per annum, according to the earnings presentation. DTM plans to drill its Class V characterization well in fourth quarter 2023 and reach final investment decision in the first half of 2024. In fourth quarter 2024, DTM expects Class VI permit approval and by fourth quarter 2025, DTM expects full project in-service. The project’s economics are fully supported by the Inflation Reduction Act’s 45Q CO2 storage tax credit and is “a very economic project for investors,” David Slater, president and CEO, said in the company’s second quarter 2023 earnings call.

Ohio Mining Co.'s Gas Pipeline Challenge Deemed Premature – Law360 -- A coal mining company's fears that a planned natural gas pipeline could cost it $7 million in local coal sales isn't enough to halt the project, an Ohio state appeals court ruled in an opinion released Monday...

29 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jul 24-30 | Marcellus Drilling News -- New shale permits issued for Jul 24-30 in the Marcellus/Utica were down just a couple, but still a nice number. There were 29 new permits issued last week, down from the 31 issued the previous week. Last week’s permit tally included 22 new permits in Pennsylvania, 7 new permits in Ohio, and no new permits in West Virginia. The top permittee for the week was EQT Corporation, receiving a whopping 16 permits in Greene County, PA. BLACKHILL ENERGY | BRADFORD COUNTY | COTERRA ENERGY (CABOT O&G) | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | JEFFERSON COUNTY (OH) | MONROE COUNTY | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY

US Coast Guard, hazmat team responding to oil spill at Philadelphia Navy Yard - CBS Philadelphia - The U.S. Coast Guard is responding after reports of an oil spill at the Philadelphia Navy Yard along Front Street in the city's Pennsport section Thursday morning. Fire officials said they responded to the Navy Yard just before 6:30 a.m. after about 100 gallons of diesel fuel leaked from a pump hose. Chopper 3 was overhead the Navy Yard site, where an oil sheen could be seen in the water. A hazmat team also responded. The Navy Yard, which was the first naval shipyard of the United States, is set on the Delaware River. The oil spill was considered under control as of 9:38 a.m., according to fire officials.

Mountain Valley developer sticks to 2023 in-service target as construction resumes: Equitrans Midstream stuck to its target for bringing the long-delayed 304-mile, 2 Bcf/d Mountain Valley Pipeline into service by the end of 2023, maintaining a more aggressive timeline than a recent estimate from its biggest customer.The pipeline developer said Aug. 1 it anticipated "four to five months' worth of construction" remaining on the estimated $6.6 billion project that will add an outlet for Appalachian Basin production. That work is already underway, after the US Supreme Court on July 27 lifted two stay orders from a lower court holding up work on the project, Equitrans executives said. The developer told the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission shortly after the Supreme Court order that it was resuming workfollowingFERC's June 28 order authorizing all construction."It's ordinary course construction where there could be some weather impact, as with any project," Equitrans Chairman and CEO Thomas Karam told analysts during a second-quarter earnings call. "But absent some of those extreme conditions, we're fairly confident that we're going to bring MVP into line around year-end."Executives at foundation shipper EQT, the largest US natural gas producer, had said July 26 they expected the pipeline to start service "by the first half of 2024." EQT provided its outlook a day before the Supreme Court action, which lifted stays by the US Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit earlier in July covering the project's Endangered Species Act documents and an authorization to cross the Jefferson National Forest. Mountain Valley is fully subscribed, with EQT holding 1.29 Bcf/d of the pipeline's firm transportation capacity. Completing Mountain Valley and receiving in-service authorization from FERC by the end of 2023 would put the project on track to commence contract obligations on Jan. 1, 2024. Equitrans on Aug. 1 reported $68.9 million of net income for the second quarter of 2023, compared to $64.7 million in the same period of 2022.Equitrans is considering a 73-mile, 375 MMcf/d extension off the Mountain Valley mainline, the MVP Southgate project, stretching from southern Virginia into North Carolina. Equitrans, which has a 47.2% ownership in MVP Southgate and is expected to operate the pipeline, said in its earnings report that the company and its joint venture partners are "focused on active negotiations with the shipper and a prospective customer regarding refining the project's design, scope and/or timing in lieu of pursuing the project as originally contemplated."

Equitrans US Mountain Valley natgas pipe on track for end 2023 completion (Reuters) - U.S. energy company Equitrans Midstream on Tuesday said it still expects to complete the Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline by the end of the year despite being tangled in numerous court fights since construction began in 2018. The U.S. Supreme Court last week on Thursday removed an obstacle to completing the estimated $6.6 billion pipeline that runs from West Virginia to Virginia, one of several projects delayed by regulatory and legal fights with environmental and local groups in recent years. Mountain Valley is key to unlocking gas supplies from Appalachia, the nation's biggest shale gas-producing basin in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia. In a sign of just how difficult it has been to build fossil-fuel infrastructure in the U.S. Northeast, where gas output has slowed in recent years, Mountain Valley needed a bill from the U.S. Congress that was signed into law by the president and help from the Supreme Court before it could restart construction. The need for so much government assistance to keep Mountain Valley going "only magnifies the critical need for comprehensive permitting reform" to improve the process of building new infrastructure, Equitrans CEO Thomas Karam said in the company's second quarter earnings release. When Mountain Valley started construction in February 2018, Equitrans estimated the 2.0-billion cubic feet per day project would cost about $3.5 billion and enter service by late 2018. After hitting an 18-month high on Monday, Equitrans stock slid about 4% to $10.00 per share on Tuesday after the company's earnings missed analysts' estimates. The 303-mile (488-kilometer) Mountain Valley project is owned by units of Equitrans, the lead partner building the pipe with a roughly 48.3% interest, NextEra Energy (NEE.N), Consolidated Edison (ED.N), AltaGas (ALA.TO) and RGC Resources (RGCO.O).

Emails Reveal Eversource's Work Behind the Scenes to Push Gas Pipeline - In an exposé based on documents obtained by the Energy and Policy Institute through a public records request, the Boston Globe revealed how gas utility Eversource worked behind the scenes with Douglas, Massachusetts, and a major warehouse developer, to expand a pipeline into the town. Eversource and Douglas officials collaborated to keep the matter out of the public eye and delayed the application for franchise approval to the state’s Department of Public Utilities “since we do not want to alert antigas activists,” according to an email Eversource’s David Allain, director of gas sales and expansion, sent to town officials. The Globe also revealed that despite the warehouse developer’s claim that full electrification of the facility was unfeasible – a claim relayed by Eversource to the DPU in its application – the developer told Douglas officials in an email, “[W]e didn’t do that analysis.” Additional documents obtained by the Energy and Policy Institute and published below further detail Eversource’s pipeline expansion project strategy. The records show that Eversource was not a mere supplier of a requested utility service but active in creating the “demand” for the gas, helped craft letters submitted in support of its DPU application, assisted in passing a Douglas’ Board of Selectmen resolution in favor of the project, and coached town officials on their meetings and communications with state officials. The emails also show that Douglas plans to use the pipeline to bring methane gas to other businesses and establishments in the town, beyond the stated customers in Eversource’s DPU application.

US LNG exports rise in July as maintenance works completed (Reuters) - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the United States rebounded in July with a 9% jump from the previous month, as plants resumed operations after planned maintenance, preliminary data from Refinitiv Eikon showed on Tuesday. At the end of June, Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana returned to full production after undergoing maintenance for several weeks. Cheniere's Corpus Christi facility in Texas had resumed full operations weeks before after scheduled maintenance, which allowed higher gas processing and exports. In July, U.S. producers exported a total of 7.44 million tonnes (MT) of LNG, of which 43% went to Europe, 36% to Asia, 10% to Latin America and 2% to the Middle East, the Refinitiv data showed. The United States is the world's second largest exporter of LNG, supplying the super-chilled product to global markets. While Europe remained the main destination for U.S. exports, shipments to the continent declined to 43% of total in July from 52% in June, while Asia received 36% last month, up from 20% the previous month, the data showed. Asia's imports from the United States hit an 18-month high in July, with commodity analysis firm Kpler recording arrivals of 2.34 MT that month, up from 1.43 MT in June and 1.91 MT in July last year. However, high LNG storage levels have so far been sufficient for strengthened demand, leading to some Asian importers taking a wait-and-see approach for additional spot LNG purchases, consultancy Rystad Energy said in a report last week. U.S. LNG exports to Latin America and the Middle East fell to 10% and 2% of total in July, respectively, compared with 23% and 3% the previous month, according to the data. U.S. liquefaction facilities are expected to run near full utilization for the rest of the summer as the scheduled maintenance season is ending, unless unexpected issues occur, according to Rystad. The high inventories, muted demand and weak economic growth are expected to limit LNG price recovery globally, Rystad's Senior Analyst Masanori Odaka said in the report. "Europe is continuing to inject gas into storage, with storage levels for this time of the year well above 2021 and 2022", Odaka said.

DT Midstream Expecting Haynesville Natural Gas Volumes to Jump as LNG Projects Near Completion - Haynesville Shale exploration and production (E&P) companies are biding their time and keeping an eye on forward natural gas prices in anticipation of more LNG takeaway by 2025, DT Midstream Inc. CEO David Slater said Tuesday.During the conference call to discuss second quarter results, Slater said the Detroit-based company is “observing moderating production levels and some short-term deferral of activity…as producers continue to operate in a disciplined manner, given the near-term weak prices. “On a positive note, over the past few weeks we have seen rig reductions stabilize, with extreme hot weather occurring across large portions of the country. This is driving strong power demand for natural gas.”

Chesapeake Working Deals to Expose More Natural Gas Production to LNG Market - Chesapeake Energy Corp. executives said Wednesday they expect to announce more deals tied to the LNG market as the company aims to expose 15-20% of its natural gas production to international trade of the super-chilled fuel. Earlier this year, Chesapeake clinched a tentative arrangement with global commodities trader Gunvor Group Ltd. to supply up to 2 million metric tons/year (mmty) of liquefied natural gas from a facility they jointly select. The producer reached another tentative deal to provide a portion of those volumes from the proposed Lake Charles export project in Louisiana at prices linked to the Japan-Korea Marker. “You should really see us announcing similar deals in the future,” said CFO Mohit Singh. “There are a lot of conversations going on."

Energy Transfer Restarting Natural Gas Permit Process for Lake Charles LNG - Energy Transfer LP plans to restart the permitting process with the Department of Energy (DOE) for its proposed Lake Charles LNG project as it seeks to capitalize on new momentum from offtakers and equity partners. During a second quarter earnings call, Co-CEO Tom Long told analysts the company has been in “discussions” with DOE following its decision in April to deny a non-free trade agreement (FTA) permit extension for the Louisiana export project. Long said reapplying for the permit is “the best path forward” after the company’s request to reconsider the decision was denied in June. “We intend to continue to work with our existing customers, prospective equity investors and other stakeholders to progress the development of this project,” Long said.

FERC Delivers Positive Environmental Review for Venture Global’s CP2 LNG - Federal energy regulators concluded in a positive final environmental impact statement (FEIS) for Venture Global Inc.’s Phase 2 expansion of Calcasieu Pass LNG (CP2) that the project could be built with limited environmental impacts. “This is a major regulatory milestone for the project that puts us on track for a Commission vote and the commencement of construction later this year,” CEO Mike Sabel said. In the FEIS published on Friday, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission staff wrote the liquefied natural gas export project planned in Cameron Parish, LA likely wouldn’t have any permanent negative effects for the environment with recommended mitigation measures. However, staff noted the assessment didn’t measure climate impacts and could “impair visual resources”..

Venture Global Eyes CP2 LNG Construction ‘Later This Year’ After Positive Environmental Review - Federal energy regulators have issued a positive final environmental impact statement (FEIS) for Venture Global Inc.’s Phase 2 expansion of Calcasieu Pass LNG (CP2), concluding it would have limited environmental impacts. “This is a major regulatory milestone for the project that puts us on track for a Commission vote and the commencement of construction later this year,” CEO Mike Sabel said. In the FEIS published Friday, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission staff wrote the liquefied natural gas export project planned in Cameron Parish, LA likely wouldn’t have any permanent negative effects for the environment with recommended mitigation measures. However, staff noted the assessment didn’t measure climate impacts and could “impair visual resources” for an

Analysts weigh in on Louisiana LNG industry amid delays -Delfin LNG just wants a little more time. Again. The floating liquefied natural gas terminal, planned for a site roughly 40 miles from the Cameron Parish coast, is asking the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for a fifth extension of its development timeline. When authorizing LNG projects, FERC grants developers a limited window for construction. All four previous extensions were no more than one year, though Delfin LNG unsuccessfully sought a 3½-year extension in 2019. Its latest request is for another four years, until 2027, to finish building. Delfin LNG’s latest ask, filed with FERC in July, once again cited COVID-19 disruptions and “complications” related to U.S. trade with China as causes for its delays. It also cited “the continuing evolution” of floating LNG terminal technology. Delfin LNG still appears to be on track, assuming FERC grants the latest extension request. The terminal has $18 billion worth of long-term contracts either signed or in the works. It has finished an initial design study and plans to hire a primary contractor by September before closing on its financing in October. However, Delfin LNG isn’t the only Louisiana LNG project facing setbacks. Four of the 14 LNG export terminals either built in or planned for Louisiana are grappling with extended timelines because of regulatory delays or financing struggles, according to The Advocate’s record of the state’s LNG facilities. Lake Charles LNG failed to convince the Department of Energy to give it more time to begin exporting LNG. Driftwood LNG has yet to announce a final investment decision, or FID, even though its construction began in April 2022. West Delta LNG’s bid for a deepwater port license has been delayed after environmental groups raised questions about the firm’s failure to adhere to application deadlines. That list doesn’t even include G2 Net-Zero, which recently pulled the plug on its planned LNG plant in Cameron Parish, or Venture Global LNG’s Calcasieu Pass terminal, which has shipped LNG since early 2022 without reaching full commercial operations. Though bigger LNG players here are firmly established, the delays facing newer projects have raised questions about how much the state’s LNG industry will continue to boom. Analysts said delays are all too common for industrial projects that require lengthy regulatory reviews and boundless resources, particularly capital. However, fundamental capitalism could also be at play: too many players rushed into a roaring market, and some of them are getting weeded out. “It’s not a reflection that there’s an easing of interest in the LNG industry,” said Tyson Slocum, energy program director for Public Citizen, a consumer advocacy nonprofit in Washington. “It just means there are an awful lot of players competing in this space, and that’s going to result in some of them getting delayed a little bit, some of them dropping out entirely.”

As the US exports more gas, Louisiana communities pay the price – Emboldened by a surge in global demand for natural gas, a small group of companies rushed to build an industry along the Gulf Coast, from the southern tip of Texas to southeastern Louisiana, carving up thousands of acres of vulnerable shoreline to clear the way for massive plants and send American fossil fuels overseas. Liquefaction terminals are among the most complex industrial facilities in existence, with footprints that rival those of the largest chemical plants and oil refineries; the first to open — Cheniere Energy’s plant in southwest Louisiana — encompassed an area the size of nearly 700 football fields.Building them often requires dredging through shorelines and wetlands to build loading docks and lay hundreds of miles of pipelines. Seven of these facilities have started up in the continental United States in as many years, and at least two dozen more are in various stages of planning and construction along the Gulf Coast. A decade ago, the United States had never exported LNG, but earlier this year it became the world’s top exporter of the fuel, surpassing the gas-rich nation of Qatar.The growth of the LNG industry in the United States has reordered world markets, offering a new energy source to Europe and Asia even as gas exports drive up domestic energy prices. But it’s on the Gulf Coast, and in particular on the rural fringes of the Louisiana coast, that the consequences of the boom have been most visible. Grist reviewed dozens of state and federal records and found that in their haste to greenlight new terminals, regulators are exposing residents of coastal parishes to new and dangerous sources of air pollution from flares and leaks. Louisiana environmental regulators recently cited numerous violations at Venture Global’s LNG terminal in Cameron Parish, but has allowed the company’s project near McAnespy’s home in Plaquemines, on the other side of the state, to move forward. And as gas exporters build their plants on eroding swampland, they are increasing the risk of catastrophic accidents and explosions during floods and hurricanes. People like McAnespy, who live in neighborhoods surrounding the terminals, are right in the blast zone.

ConocoPhillips signs 20-year LNG supply deals with Mexico Pacific (Reuters) - ConocoPhillips has signed 20-year deals to receive a collective 2.2 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) a year from Mexico Pacific's Saguaro export facility, the U.S. oil and gas producer said on Thursday. Mexico is expected to soon inaugurate the first of nine planned onshore and floating LNG production facilities both on the Gulf and Pacific coasts, which will process U.S. natural gas imported through a pipeline network between the two countries. The deals, which are subject to the project getting the final go-ahead from Mexico Pacific, would grant Conoco access to LNG from Mexico's Pacific coast, the U.S. company said in a release. Mexico Pacific last month announced a similar deal to supply 1 million metric tons of LNG a year to China's Zhejiang Energy. The Saguaro facility will process low-cost gas arriving from the Permian Basin through a dedicated pipeline. Most of the resulting LNG is expected to be bound for the Asian market through a significantly shorter shipping route avoiding the Panama Canal, Mexico Pacific has said. "We are really interested in adding West Coast LNG into our portfolio," Conoco Chief Financial Officer William Bullock told investors on Thursday on a call about the company's quarterly results. Conoco chose Saguaro over other LNG facilities under construction in Mexico because a final investment decision on that project will come sooner, he said. "Saguaro is in a quite competitive supply location for deliveries, particularly into Asia, and fits very nice if you think of an acquisition cost for LNG," Bullock added. Conoco continues to see strong demand for LNG, he said. "We are kind of laddering our build out of market and supply."

Cheniere Expecting Faster Ramp Up for Corpus Christi LNG Expansion - Cheniere Energy Inc. loaded fewer LNG cargoes in the second quarter amid a heavy stretch of maintenance and slightly weaker international demand. The company loaded 149 cargoes, or 536 TBtu, of the super-chilled fuel during the quarter, down from 156 cargoes, or 563 TBtu, in the year-ago period. While international demand for liquefied natural gas has remained strong this year, buying has dropped compared with 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and upended energy flows. Cheniere also completed a major maintenance overhaul during the second quarter at the Sabine Pass export terminal in Louisiana for the first time since it entered service in 2016.

Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities set a record in first-half 2023 –EIA - Natural gas deliveries by pipeline to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities are called LNG feed gas. LNG feed gas averaged 12.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in the first six months of 2023, following the Freeport LNG terminal’s return to service, according to data by S&P Global Commodity Insights. Over this period, LNG feed gas averaged 8%, or 1.0 Bcf/d, more than the 2022 annual average and 4%, or 0.5 Bcf/d, more than the same six-month period in 2022.LNG feed gas set a monthly record in April 2023 at 14.0 Bcf/d, supported by high international demand for U.S. LNG exports, particularly in Europe. LNG feed gas declined slightly in May and June and averaged 13.0 Bcf/d and 11.5 Bcf/d, respectively, primarily because of maintenance at several U.S. LNG export facilities, including Sabine Passand Cameron.LNG feed gas levels are typically higher than LNG export levels because LNG export terminals consume some of the feed gas to operate on-site liquefaction equipment. All U.S. LNG export facilities, except Freeport LNG, use natural gas turbine-driven refrigerant compressors to convert natural gas from a gaseous to a liquid state, or LNG. Freeport LNG is the only liquefaction facility in the United States that uses electric motors instead of natural gas turbines to drive refrigerant compressors. As a result, most of Freeport LNG’s feed gas is converted into LNG.We capture the differences in LNG feed gas and LNG export levels under the Pipeline & Distribution Use category in our Natural Gas Monthly. In addition to LNG feed gas used during the liquefaction process at LNG facilities, the Pipeline & Distribution Use category also includes natural gas consumed in pipeline transportation.We estimate approximately 14% of LNG feed gas is used for liquefaction processes, mostly to operate on-site liquefaction equipment. In our Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we account for feed gas used in the liquefaction process and natural gas consumed in pipeline transportation in the Natural Gas Pipeline and Distribution Use category in Table 5a.We forecast U.S. LNG exports to average 12.0 Bcf/d in 2023 and 13.3 Bcf/d in 2024, as two new LNG liquefaction projects are expected to come online—Golden Pass and Plaquemines. Global economic conditions and demand for natural gas in Europe and Asia may affect our forecast. The assumed ongoing replacement of Russia’s natural gas exports by pipeline to Europe with LNG supports higher U.S. LNG exports going forward. Limited growth in global LNG export capacity in the next two years may increase the need for destination-flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States.

Mexico LNG Project in ‘Oversubscribed Territory’ After ConocoPhillips Joins as Anchor - ConocoPhillips agreed Thursday to buy 2.2 million metric tons/year (mmty) of LNG from Mexico Pacific Ltd.’s (MPL) Saguaro Energia export terminal planned for the country’s west coast, pushing the project closer to a final investment decision (FID). MPL CEO Ivan Van der Walt said ConocoPhillips’s commitment pushed the company’s sales volumes for trains one and two past what’s required to sanction them and puts the project in “oversubscribed territory.” Management said it would continue working on contracting for train three ahead of a FID on the project that is expected this year. ConocoPhillips agreed to buy liquefied natural gas from the project for a 20-year term on a free-on-board basis. The sales and purchase agreement also gives ConocoPhillips an option to...

US natgas prices fall 3% on forecasts for lower demand (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell around 3% on Tuesday on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. The price decline came despite a preliminary drop in daily output and forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather to continue through mid-August, especially in Texas. Power demand in Texas hit an all-time high on Monday, topping the prior record set on July 18, and will likely break that high again on Tuesday and next week as homes and businesses keep their air conditioners cranked up to escape a lingering heat wave, according to forecasts by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state's power grid operator. Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas burned to produce power for cooling, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest coming from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), federal energy data showed. That Texas record came a few days after overall U.S. power demand hit its highest so far this year (and second highest ever) on July 27 - the hottest day this summer, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) going back to 2016. EIA said U.S. power use hit 14.7 million megawatt hours (MWh) on July 27, just shy of the 14.8-million MWh record on July 20, 2022. Data provider Refinitiv said temperatures in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 82.2 degrees Fahrenheit (27.9 Celsius) on July 27, a little short of the record 83.0 F on July 20, 2022, according to data going back to 2018. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.4 cents, or 2.8%, to settle at $2.560 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Traders said Waha prices fell due in part to the shutdown of the 2.1-billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) Permian Highway Pipeline late on July 27 due to what the company told customers was "an operational incident". Permian Highway transports gas from West Texas to the Gulf Coast. That shutdown depressed Waha prices by trapping gas in the Permian basin in West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Permian Highway told customers that the pipe was back in service late on July 31 with around 1.2 bcfd of capacity available and should be back at full service Tuesday morning. Refinitiv said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 101.7 bcfd in July, up from 101.0 bcfd in June but just shy of the 101.8-bcfd monthly record set in May due to pipeline maintenance earlier in the month. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 2.8 bcfd to a preliminary two-week low of 99.9 bcfd on Tuesday. That would be the biggest one-day decline in output since December, but traders noted preliminary data - especially at the start of the month - is often revised by large amounts later in the day. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly hotter than normal through at least Aug. 16.

US natgas prices jumped 4% on small storage build, hotter forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained about 4% on Thursday on a slightly smaller-than-expected weekly storage build and forecasts for lower output and hotter weather over the next two weeks than previously expected, especially in Texas. That price increase came despite a decline in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 14 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 28. That was slightly smaller than the 17-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 37 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 37 bcf. Analysts said the build was much smaller than usual because power generators burned record amounts of gas for three days in a row last week to keep air conditioners humming during an extreme heat wave blanketing much of the country. Power demand in Texas hit an all-time high on Monday and Tuesday and will likely break that record again on Thursday, Friday and early next week as homes and businesses keep their air conditioners cranked up during the lingering heat wave, according to forecasts by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state's power grid operator. Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.8 cents, or 3.6%, to settle at $2.565 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 101.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, down from 101.8 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record of 102.2 bcfd in May. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain hotter than normal through at least Aug. 18. With pipeline and LNG exports expected to increase, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 104.7 bcfd this week to 105.2 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell from an average of 12.7 bcfd in July to 12.1 bcfd so far in August due mostly to a reduction at Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana. That compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April.

Biden admin quietly settles with eco groups to restrict oil drilling in Gulf of Mexico -- The Biden administration quietly entered into a court settlement late Friday with a coalition of environmental groups who have pushed for more wildlife protections from offshore oil development activity. In a stipulated stay agreement filed with the U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) agreed to a number of conditions requested by the coalition of four eco groups led by the Sierra Club which, in response, agreed to temporarily pause litigation in the case. Fossil fuel industry groups, though, blasted the settlement, saying it would hamper domestic energy production."This private settlement agreement between the federal government and environmental activists places unfounded restrictions on operations in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico that severely hamper America's ability to produce energy in a region that is responsible for the lowest carbon-intensive barrels in the world," the American Petroleum Institute (API), National Ocean Industries Association and EnerGeo Alliance said in a joint statement. "Despite no evidence to warrant this far-reaching ban on operations after extensive data collections, today’s agreement undermines the integrity of legitimate conservation and habitat protection efforts, violates the explicit directives of Congress in enacting the Inflation Reduction Act, and harms America’s energy independence," the two industry groups added. Under the settlement, the Biden administration agreed to create expanded protection areas for the Rice’s whale species that environmental groups argued weren't properly protected under previous assessments. However, the government stated it had no "reason to believe" whales would be harmed by oil and gas activities in the newly expanded Gulf of Mexico protection areas.In addition, the administration agreed to exclude about 11 million acres with rich oil resources in the Gulf of Mexico from future lease sales. That acreage would likely have been available for future lease sales mandated under the Inflation Reduction Act. And the federal government will impose new restrictions on oil and gas vessels, but not the thousands of vessels operated in other industries in the area. As such, oil and gas vessels must operate at slower speeds, which could cut transit windows to less than 40% of the time annually and 25% during the winter, according to API.

US Crude Stockpiles Fall by Record Volume After OPEC+ Cuts - - US crude stockpiles plunged by a record 17.05 million barrels last week, in the latest sign of a tightening global market following output cuts by OPEC+. American inventories are now at the lowest since January, US government data showed, a welcome sign for oil bulls who have been expecting tighter balances for months. Crude futures have recently rallied above $80 a barrel on the back of new production limits by Saudi Arabia and declining exports from Russia. To be sure, the weekly inventory figures from the US Energy Information Administration are frequently revised, with large adjustments prompting some skepticism about the data’s accuracy.

U.S. crude stockpiles in week fall by largest on record -EIA --(Reuters) - U.S. crude stocks fell the most on record last week as exports topped 5 million barrels per day and refineries processed more crude, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Most of the fall in crude stocks came from a record drop in stockpiles held in the refining hubs of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Stocks there fell by a record 15.57 million barrels to 243.4 million barrels as refiners in the region processed the most crude since August 2022, the EIA said. U.S. crude inventories fell by 17 million barrels to 439.8 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll of a 1.4 million-barrel drop. Despite the record stock draw, U.S. oil prices fell along with declines across financial markets, the day after rating agency Fitch downgraded the U.S. government’s top credit rating. U.S. crude futures fell $1.94, or 2.4%, to $80.77 a barrel while Brent crude futures fell $1.77, or 2.1%, to $84.41 a barrel by 11:03 a.m. EDT. News that the U.S. government has pulled an offer to buy 6 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve also pushed prices lower, traders and analysts said. “All that pours cold water on an already overbought market,” one trader said. Analysts said traders had already priced in a large stock draw following Tuesday’s American Petroleum Institute forecasts of a 15.4 million barrel draw. “Yesterday’s API report very much alluded to a large crude draw, hence it’s been a case of buying the rumor and selling the fact for WTI, which is heading lower after running into technical resistance,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst for the Americas at Kpler. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 1.3 million barrels in the last week, EIA said. U.S. crude exports stood at 5.28 million bpd last week, the third-highest weekly export total on record. Refinery crude runs rose by 39,000 barrels per day in the last week, EIA said. Refinery utilization rates fell by 0.7 percentage points in the week. Gasoline stocks posted a modest surprise build while distillate stocks posted a modest surprise draw, the EIA said. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 1.5 million barrels in the week to 219.1 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll of a 1.3 million-barrel drop. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 0.8 million barrels in the week to 117.2 million barrels, versus expectations for a 0.1 million-barrel rise, the EIA data showed. Net U.S. crude imports fell last week by 391,000 barrels per day, EIA said.

U.S. Withdraws Offer To Buy 6 Million Barrels Of Oil For The SPR - The Department of Energy has canceled its offer for the purchase of 6 million barrels for the strategic petroleum reserve amid the latest surge in oil prices. These hit the highest in three months earlier this week on strong demand projections, OPEC cuts and outages, and a massive 15.4-million-barrel decline in U.S. inventories for the week to July 28. Last year, to arrest an inexorable climb in retail fuel prices, the White House announced a release of 180 million barrels of crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve. Critics warned the move would have a limited effect on prices but compromise the energy security of the country by reducing the level of crude in the SPR. The release, alongside other factors such as low demand and fears of demand destruction, did help to bring both fuel and oil prices down. In late 2022, the administration said it was going to start buying crude to replenish the SPR when prices fall to around $70 per barrel. This year, the White House kept oscillating between caution and a willingness to finally start refilling the SPR, amid pressure from Congress Republicans to maintain an adequate strategic reserve of oil. Eventually, this led to the offer for the purchase of 6 million barrels of oil, which was made in early July, when oil prices were within the desired range of $67 to $72 per barrel. The offer, however, was for sour crude, which has seen substantially tightened supply due to Russia sanctions and Saudi production cuts, and this has led to an even more marked increase in prices. Despite the pullback, the Department of Energy “remains committed to its replenishment strategy for the SPR,” a spokesperson said, as quoted by Reuters. West Texas Intermediate was trading above $82 per barrel at the time of writing, up by more than $10 per barrel since early July when the Department of Energy made the SPR refill offer.

EIA Finally Announces Meaningful Decline in USA Crude Stockpiles -- Barani Krishnan, Senior Commodities Analyst at uk.Investing.com: The EIA finally announced a meaningful decline in U.S. crude stockpiles, citing a 17 million barrel drop for the week ended July 28 - apparently its largest in history - to justify all that talk of aggressive Saudi production cuts. For weeks, the Energy Information Administration, the custodian of U.S. energy data, had been reporting paltry changes to crude balances, creating doubts about whether the Saudis were really cutting an additional 1.0 million barrels per day, aside from other reductions, as they claimed. To be fair, no one should expect a barrel for barrel correlation between changes in Saudi crude exports and U.S. inventories. But the EIA, as provider of the world’s most transparent and comprehensive data on energy, had to be capturing the shifts in the global supply situation at least in its weekly data. It’s good that such a huge decline was reported, as it shows that all that bull talk of production cuts wasn’t just ‘bull’. Rigzone: What were some market surprises? Krishnan: To add to its strategy of constantly introducing ‘shock and awe’ to the market and swing prices to its favor, Saudi Arabia announced this week that it would extend its July-August production cut of one million barrels per day to September as well. That announcement interestingly came a day after a two percent price slump that cut short the five-week rally in oil. As though stung, and maybe somewhat annoyed, that short sellers were making a comeback, an official at the Saudi energy ministry was quoted saying by the kingdom’s state news agency SPA that the cuts would not only be extended but also deepened if necessary.

Gas prices hit their highest level this year as heat hampers refineries - Rising oil costs and heat-induced refinery production cuts have driven gas prices to their highest levels in nine months. The average price for a gallon of regular-grade gas in the United States reached $3.80 on Wednesday, 26 cents more compared with a month ago, according to data from AAA. It is the highest level since November, though still lower than the peak average of $5 in June 2022. Hot weather has hurt refinery output, AAA spokesman Andrew Gross said. Refineries aren’t designed to operate in temperatures above 95 degrees, so companies scale back production during heat waves as a safety and efficiency measure. Much of the country’s refinery capacity is in areas of Texas and Louisiana where the average daily maximum temperature in July has been at least 95 degrees. Weather ultimately will decide whether drivers see financial relief at the pump, Gross said. But the cost of crude oil also has an impact on gasoline prices, Gross and others said. Oil prices are around $80 a barrel. Crude supply cuts have led to global declines in oil inventories, said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “Heat has been a sudden jolt the past two weeks, but brewing behind the scenes has been the price of oil, which for five straight weeks has been rising,” DeHaan said. “The Russians and Saudis have been colluding to limit production into the market at a time that it’s looking like the economy may not get dragged to the depths of a recession.” Analysts expect gas prices to ease by October, but hurricane season could lead to more hikes in the short term. In South Florida especially, where water temperatures off the Gulf Coast exceeded 100 degrees last week, the potential for hurricane damage looms large.

Waha Back in Positive Natural Gas Price Territory as West Texas Imports Gain Ground – Mexico Spotlight - Natural Gas Intelligence - Natural gas imports into Mexico from West Texas rose this week amid favorable pricing and ample supply.Natural gas futures sunk lower as U.S. production remained above 100 Bcf/d. After three straight losses, the September New York Mercantile Exchange gas futures contract settled at $2.565/MMBtu on Thursday, up 8.8 cents on the day.Mexico pipeline imports from the United States for the 10 days through Thursday averaged 6.90 Bcf/d, according to NGI Data. The average for South Texas flows was 4.15 Bcf/d. West Texas flows gained about 100 MMcf/d over the previous 10-day period, hitting 1.91 Bcf/d. California and Arizona flows averaged 0.53 Bcf/d and 0.31 Bcf/d, respectively, over the last 10 days. July ended with higher average demand than June, at 7.03 Bcf/d compared to 6.98 Bcf/d in June...

Oil Driller Pioneer Tests Lithium Mining From Shale Wastewater -- Pioneer Natural Resources Co.,one of the largest US shale drillers, is experimenting with mining lithium from wastewater produced in the fracking process.Chief Executive Officer Scott Sheffield told Bloomberg Television that the company started doing tests about three years ago to see whether it’s feasible to extract minerals from the large amounts of dirty water generated by drilling in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico.In addition to lithium, a key component of electric vehicle batteries, it might be possible to produce ammonia and gold from wastewater, Sheffield said. His comments came after Bloomberg News ...

‘Halliburton Loophole’ Allows Fracking Companies to Avoid Chemical Regulation - For almost 20 years, U.S. public-health advocates have worried that toxic chemicals are getting into ground water and harming human health because of an exemption to the federal Safe Drinking Water Act that allows operators of oil and gas fracking operations to use chemicals that would be regulated if used for any other purpose.The so-called Halliburton Loophole, named after the oil and gas services company once headed by former Vice President Dick Cheney, means that the industry can use fracking fluid containing chemicals linked to negative health effects including kidney and liver disease, fertility impairment and reduced sperm counts without being subject to regulation under the act. While environmentalists and public-health campaigners have long called for closing the loophole, they haven’t known how many of the regulated chemicals are used by the industry, how often the industry reports their use in its fracking disclosures, what quantities of the chemicals are used and how often the industry chooses not to identify its chemicals on the grounds that they are proprietary. Now, some of that data is publicly available in a study by researchers at Northeastern University and three other colleges. The paper, published in its final form in February, reports that the industry uses 28 chemicals regulated under the Safe Drinking Water Act and discloses them in up to 73 percent of its reports of fracking activities to FracFocus, an industry-sponsored database. Between 2014 and 2021, the industry used 282 million pounds of the regulated chemicals, a number dwarfed by the 7.2 billion pounds of chemicals that were reported but not identified on the grounds that they are proprietary or trade secrets, the paper said.The chemical most frequently reported to the database during that period was ethylene glycol, used by the industry as a friction-reducer and gelling agent, that can harm the eyes, skin, kidneys and respiratory system and even kill humans if swallowed, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Ethylene glycol was disclosed to FracFocus more than 52,000 times, or 45 percent of all disclosures, more than twice as often as any of the other regulated chemicals, during the study period. Operators used about 250 million pounds of the chemical, the study said.The second-most commonly reported fracking chemical subject to the loophole was acrylamide, another friction-reducer, which appeared in 19 percent of the cases notified to the database. Its health effects include nervous-system impairments including muscle weakness, numbness in hands and feet and sweating, according to the CDC.Benzene, which can cause cancer at high or prolonged exposures, was reported only 111 times but had one of the largest weights of the regulated chemicals, at 7.5 million pounds, according to the paper, titled “Outcomes of the Halliburton Loophole: Chemicals regulated by the Safe Drinking Water Act in U.S. Fracking Disclosures, 2014-2021.”Other regulated chemicals identified by the study include naphthalene, formaldehyde, and 1,4 dioxane, which are variously linked to negative effects on the nervous, respiratory, urinary and gastrointestinal systems.It also found that 19,700 disclosures report the regulated chemicals in masses that exceed quantities reportable under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA), another federal law from the which the oil and gas industry is exempt.

White House Methane Task Force to Target Oil, Natural Gas Emissions - The Biden administration has created a new cabinet-level Methane Task Force to accelerate emissions reductions from the oil and gas industry. The announcement was part of the first-ever White House Methane Summit held last week. Methane, the primary component of natural gas, is a potent greenhouse gas with 80 times the near-term warming potential of carbon dioxide. The task force is targeting abandoned or “orphaned” oil and gas wells, along with the United States’ roughly 3 million-mile natural gas pipeline network, in order to reduce leakage of methane into the atmosphere.

Biden admin blocks more than 1.5 million acres from oil drilling after eco groups' legal challenges - The Biden administration proposed a plan to lock up nearly 1.6 million acres of public landsfrom oil and gas development across western Colorado in response to multiple legal challenges filed by environmental groups. In a draft supplemental environmental impact statement announced Thursday, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) issued so-called resource management plans for its Grand Junction Field Office and Colorado River Valley field offices which oversee mineral leasing in the area. The proposal would restrict the two offices to leasing just 239,000 acres and 143,000 acres, respectively, for fossil fuel production, a total reduction of about 80%."Public participation is key to the development of Resource Management Plans," BLM Upper Colorado River District Manager Greg Larson said in a statement. "This new analysis will ensure the BLM’s management of these areas will best serve our multiple use mission for the future."BLM's proposal comes after years of legal challenges spearheaded by several environmental groups that argued the federal government failed to take climate change and greenhouse gas emissions into consideration when formulating its resource management plans, which are issued by field offices to outline how they will manage designated lands for the next 20 years.

Oil spill contained at Nanaimo Harbour, recovery work to begin -The Western Canada Marine Response Corporation was tasked to an oil spill in the Nanaimo Harbour on Wednesday morning. Michael Lowry, senior manager of communications for the organization says three vessels from the Nanaimo base responded, and two additional vessels from the Sidney and Vancouver bases were brought in as a precaution. “Most of the oil was confined on the deck of the M/V Maipo River and what did spill from the vessel was contained within log booms surrounding the vessel,” Lowry said in an email statement. “Initial reports indicate very little oil is outside of the containment zone. No exact numbers yet on volume.” On Thursday, crews began recovery of waste but there is no timeline for how long the work will take to complete.’

Hibernia management ordered to pay $400K for July 2019 oil spill— Hibernia management was quick to take action after a July 2019 oil spill, but not quick enough to shut down production, waiting nearly 16 hours. In provincial court in St. John’s Monday, July 31, Judge Phyllis Harris accepted a joint submission from lawyers representing the Crown and Hibernia Management and Development Company Ltd. (HMDC), and ordered Hibernia to pay $400,000 in fines for the spill, which is believed to have released 12,000 litres of oil into the Atlantic Ocean.The court heard two of the platform’s alarms had sounded within five minutes of each other, shortly before 1 a.m. on July 17, 2019. First was the oil-in-water analyzer, which continued to go off intermittently until just before 5 a.m. and again in the afternoon. The other was the ballast water tank’s high level alarm, warning the water level was approaching its top limit. A technician responded within eight minutes of the initial alarm and switched production to stop the displacement of fluid into the ballast system.As daylight broke, the platform’s control room received reports of oil on the ocean surface, and management immediately implemented a spill response and investigation, using aerial surveillance, specialized equipment, sheen monitoring and wildlife observers.It wasn’t until around 5 p.m., when crude oil was noticed in the ballast water tank, that the company shut down production. The cleanup took 2 1/2 weeks before no trace of hydrocarbon was detected in the area, and included several vessels as well as wildlife monitoring; six oiled birds were located.An investigation revealed the discharge was cause by a malfunction in the platform’s crude oil level measurement system, despite proper maintenance and no prior sign that the system wasn’t working correctly. Hibernia pleaded guilty to a breach of regulations by failing to stop work quickly enough; charges of causing the spill and failing to follow processes to manage risks were withdrawn.“I recognize the shutdown could not, in this circumstance, be instant given the size and complexity of the platform, however, I would note that it should occur as quickly as possible after a potential pollution threat is identified, in order to ensure no continuation of the problem and to allow the resulting pollution to be addressed as quickly as possible,” the judge said. She accepted the submission for a $400,000 fine — $310,000 of which will go to the Environmental Damages Fund, a federal fund that supports projects repairing damage to the environment and wildlife conservation — saying it’s an appropriate and meaningful penalty that demonstrates to others in the industry there will be serious consequences for failing to follow regulatory regimes.

Oil major BP posts 70% drop in second-quarter profit, raises dividend by 10% — Oil major BP on Tuesday reported a nearly 70% year-on-year drop in second-quarter profits on the back of weaker fossil fuel prices, echoing a trend observed across the energy industry. The British energy major posted second-quarter underlying replacement cost profit, used as a proxy for net profit, of $2.6 billion. Analysts had expected BP to report second-quarter profit of $3.5 billion, according to estimates collated by Refinitiv. The second-quarter result compared with a profit of $4.96 billion recorded in the first three months of the year and with the $8.5 billion logged in the second quarter of 2022. BP said the earnings reflected significantly lower realized refining margins, a higher level of turnaround and maintenance activity and a weak oil trading result. Nonetheless, the energy giant boosted its dividend by 10% to 7.27 cents per ordinary share for the second quarter. BP also said it would repurchase $1.5 billion of its shares over the next three months.

Europe’s LNG Imports Fall To 20-Month Low --LNG imports into Europe fell in July to the lowest level since November 2021 as low European benchmark natural gas prices are discouraging traders to ship many cargoes to the continent right now. Europe’s LNG imports declined by 7% year over year in July, to 8.6 million tons, the lowest import volumes since November 2021, when the energy crisis in Europe began, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed on Wednesday. The front-month futures at the TTF hub, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, were at $30.43 (27.71 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh) as of early Wednesday in Amsterdam. Prices jumped earlier this week as maintenance offshore Norway, including at the giant gas field Troll, reduced pipeline gas exports from Norway, which is now Europe’s single-largest gas supplier having ousted Russia from the top spot after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices have fallen in recent months and are now 80% lower than the records seen last summer amid ample gas inventories with storage sites on track to be full well in advance of EU targets. EU gas storage levels are much higher than the five-year average and the levels from this time last year, easing concerns about Europe’s gas supply. The EU gas storage sites were 85% full as of July 31, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. Comfortable inventory levels are capping the price gains from Norwegian maintenance stoppages, keeping European prices lower. The low European natural gas prices discourage traders from sending too much LNG to Europe now as sellers are looking at the Asian market where spot LNG prices have risen amid heatwaves in Japan, South Korea, and parts of China. “The discount of European gas prices compared to Asian LNG prices increased to an average of around US$2.1/MMBtu in July compared to an average of around US$0.3/MMBtu in June 2023,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said earlier this week. “The higher discount in the European gas market could help divert more LNG cargoes towards Asia and reduce the supply glut in the European market.”

Refined Russian Oil Bucks G7 Price Cap -- Several of Russia’s refined oil products are trading above the price cap imposed by Group of Seven nations, in another sign that the value of its barrels is rising in defiance of sanctions. Since February, there have been two caps on the sale of Russian refined fuels, one for higher value products at $100 a barrel and another for lower ones at $45. Argus Media Ltd., whose prices are central to the caps, says naphtha and fuel oil are trading above the lower cap, while diesel is trading above the higher one. Of the products that are yet to breach the cap at Russia’s western ports, gasoil and gasoline are both approaching that ceiling, with the value of both fuels surging globally. Last month, Russia’s flagship Urals crude breached the price cap for the first time, offering a victory of sorts for Moscow which assembled a shadow fleet of ships big enough to transport its supplies to buyers while circumventing G-7 services. There also signs that Moscow is starting to deliver on the production cuts it agreed with its allies in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. On Tuesday, a senior US administration official said that countries signed up to the cap are continuing to monitor the policy’s progress and that its success would be gauged by whether Russia’s revenue is lower than it would be if there were no measures in place. The official said that Russia’s assembly of a fleet of vessels to ship its oil was a victory for the policy as it diverted resources away from Moscow’s war on Ukraine. The price cap on refined fuels is more complicated than the one on crude as it involves two different sets of prices for a myriad of products. For naphtha, in particular, there have been different categorizations of customs codes that could split cargoes between either the lower or higher value caps. The measures are only designed to reflect the use of services provided by countries that sign up to the cap. Transporting oil and refined products above the price cap using insurance or tankers from non-signatories wouldn’t be subject to sanctions.

UN Aims to Remove Oil from Tanker in Red Sea - An international team is working to remove oil from a ship anchored in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen. The oil tanker, called the SOF Safer, has not been used for at least eight years. It contains over 1 million barrels of oil. Experts say the ship is at risk of breaking up or exploding. The Associated Press reported in 2020 that seawater entered the ship’s engine room and caused damage. The water also put the ship in danger of sinking. For years, the United Nations and governments of nearby countries warned that an explosion or oil leak could disrupt shipping in the Middle East. The ship is close to the Yemeni ports of Hodeida and Ras Issa. Many ships travel from the Persian Gulf, past Yemen and through Egypt’s Suez Canal to get to the Mediterranean Sea. The United Nations purchased another oil tanker so crews could move the oil from the Safer. Antonio Guterres is the UN Secretary General. In a statement, he said the work is a “critical next step in avoiding an environmental and humanitarian catastrophe.” The U.N. said the job will be done in less than three weeks. The Safer was built in the 1970s and sold to the Yemeni government in the 1980s so it could move oil pumped from the fields in Marib. The U.N. said a leak could have been worse than the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, one of the largest ecological disasters. When the oil is removed, the work will not be over, however. The Safer will be anchored to an underwater oil pipeline before it is taken away to a scrapyard. David Gressly is the U.N. humanitarian official for Yemen. He said moving the oil will prevent a “worst-case scenario.” Guterres said, cleaning up an oil spill in Yemen could have cost “tens of billions of dollars.”

UN completes first phase of Safer oil transfer in Yemen --The United Nations has announced the transfer of one third of the oil from the tanker Safer, bringing the first phase of the operation to an end. The decaying ship moored off the coast of Yemen, north of the Yemeni port of Hodeidah, poses a serious environmental and humanitarian risk. According to Arab News, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) administrator Achim Steiner said on Sunday that 360,000 barrels of oil had been pumped from the tanker to a replacement tanker, reducing the risk of an oil spill by almost a third. The tanker Safer, which has been stranded in the Red Sea since 2015, contains about 1.1 million barrels of crude oil. Experts have warned that a rupture or explosion could cause a massive environmental disaster and affect millions of people who depend on fishing and desalination for their livelihoods and water supply. The UN has been negotiating for years with the Houthi rebels, who control the area where the tanker is located, to gain access to the tanker for repairs and maintenance. The Houthis finally agreed to allow a UN team to board the tanker in February 2021, after a series of technical problems and delays. The operation is being carried out by the maritime salvage company SMIT Salvage, contracted by the UN team, which includes engineers and divers from different countries, and began transferring the oil on 11 July. This UN-coordinated operation relies on donations from private companies and public entities contributing $115 million for the prevention of the spill, with a further $28 million needed to complete the transfer operations. The clean-up of the disaster could cost $20 billion if the vessel were to rupture with the oil on board.

Iraq exports over 106 mln barrels of crude oil in July -Iraq exported about 106.75 million barrels of crude oil in July, generating 8.29 billion U.S. dollars in revenue, the country’s Oil Ministry announced on Tuesday. The average price of Iraqi crude oil in July was 77.69 dollars per barrel, the ministry said in a statement, citing statistics from the State Organization for Marketing of Oil, an Iraqi company. About 105.48 million barrels were exported from oil fields in central and southern Iraq via the port of Basra, and 922,755 barrels from the Qayyara oilfield in the northern province of Nineveh, and 344,804 barrels were sent to neighboring Jordan during the month, the statement said. Oil exports from the northern province of Kirkuk via the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean were suspended after Baghdad won an arbitration case against Türkiye in late March over a long dispute on the independent export of oil by Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government. On April 4, the Iraqi federal government and the Kurdish regional government signed an interim agreement to resume Kurdish oil exports via Türkiye. But Türkiye continued to halt the oil flow, saying it wants to negotiate the arbitration before oil exports resume. Iraq’s economy heavily relies on crude oil exports, which account for more than 90 percent of the country’s revenues.

OPEC oil output declines by 840,000 bpd in July – Crude oil output of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) declined by 840,000 barrels per day (bpd) from June to July to 27.34 million bpd, a Reuters survey showed on Monday. During that period, Angola and Nigeria reportedly failed to reach the agreed oil output and Saudi Arabia reduced its production by 860,000 as part of its voluntary output cut. Increases in Angola and Iraq's outputs, however, limited the decline in the organization's total output. Crude oil prices continue to push higher following this headline. As of writing, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate was trading at its highest level since mid-April at $81.60, gaining 1.2% on a daily basis.

OPEC’S Production Falls By Most In 3 Years: Survey - OPEC’s crude oil production fell in July by the largest amount in years, according to a new Bloomberg survey. According to the results of the survey, OPEC’s crude production fell 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) last month, to an average of 27.79 million bpd. It is the sharpest drop since 2020 when the group rushed to cut its output in the wake of Covid lockdowns and crashing demand. The survey showed that Saudi Arabia carried the heaviest load in cutting production in July, producing 9.15 million bpd. Nigeria and Libya also saw their production dip last month by 130,000 bpd and 50,000 bpd, respectively. OPEC+’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting has been scheduled for August 3 to assess the state of the oil markets, according to sources who spoke with Oilprice.com last week. Bloomberg reported today that Saudi Arabia and Russia would chair an online review of the markets at a meeting on August 4. Analysts largely expect Saudi Arabia to extend its voluntary 1 million bpd supply cut into September as it looks to support the rebound in oil prices, which have Brent pushing $85 as of Tuesday afternoon. But some anticipate Saudi Arabia unwinding at least part of its 1 million bpd cut beginning next month. Oil markets are expected to tighten during this half of the year, with even the IEA predicting an oil shortage of 1.7 million bpd in H2. Standard Chartered has predicted a 2.81 million bpd shortfall this month, with smaller shortfalls—but still shortfalls—in September and beyond. Brent prices are expected to climb in the fourth quarter above $90 per barrel—a level that some suggest would entice Saudi Arabia to unwind its voluntary cuts.

OPEC+ Not Expected To Alter Oil Production Policy Amid Price Rally --A panel of OPEC+ is unlikely to change the current oil production policy of the alliance at the Friday meeting, several sources in the group told Reuters on Wednesday, as prices rallied to more than a three-month high. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the group, which regularly discusses the situation on the market and the need for OPEC+ intervention, is meeting on August 4 to take stock of the most recent developments.Since the OPEC+ meeting in early June, oil prices have rallied by more than 16%, driven by easing concerns about a U.S. recession and a tightening oil market thanks to the OPEC+ cuts.At the latest meeting in June, OPEC+ decided to extend the current cuts into 2024. Those cuts were originally intended to last between May and December 2023. But the largest surprise came from Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude oil exporter and OPEC+ leader, which announced a unilateral production cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) for July.Early in July, the Saudis extended the cut into August, too, “to support the stability of the market.”Now there are expectations that Saudi Arabia will xtend its 1 million bpd production cut into September, too. The Kingdom is cutting its production by 1 million bpd in July and August, on top of around 500,000 bpd reduction as part of the OPEC+ cuts that began in May.Some analysts expect Saudi Arabia to announce the one-month extension of the 1-million-bpd cut after the JMMC meeting on Friday and ahead of the announcement of the official selling prices (OSPs) for Saudi crude grades loading in September. The cuts from Saudi Arabia and some other OPEC+ producers, and signs that Russian crude shipments are already falling, have supported oil prices in recent weeks and led analysts to upgrade their forecasts for market deficits this quarter and the rest of the year.

Saudis Extend 1MM Barrel Oil Cut -Saudi Arabia extended its unilateral oil production cut by another month, and said it could be prolonged further or even deepened. The leader of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will continue the cutback of 1 million barrels a day — launched last month — into September, according to a statement on state Saudi Press Agency. That will hold output at about 9 million barrels a day, the lowest level in several years. Crude futures jumped. The measure — which comes on top of supply curbs Riyadh was already making with others in the OPEC+ producers group — is intended “to reinforce the precautionary efforts made by OPEC+ countries with the aim of supporting the stability and balance of oil markets.” Its ally Russia also said it will extend output curbs, but taper them slightly. Oil prices have recovered recently, reaching a three-month high above $85 a barrel earlier this week in London, as the post-pandemic recovery in fuel demand, combined with output curbs by OPEC+ countries, begins to tighten world crude markets. But with the economic outlook still clouded by lackluster data from China and fears of recession in the US, Riyadh is showing no signs of relaxing its grip. Besides, the kingdom may need prices of as much as $100 a barrel to cover government spending, according to Bloomberg Economics. Brent futures surged as much as 1.7% after the Saudi announcement on Thursday, but then pared some of the gains to trade near $84 a barrel. The decision to extend output cuts was in line with the expectations of traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg last week. The kingdom’s hawkish approach has drawn criticism from major importing nations, which fear that rising fuel costs may inflict another inflationary spike on consumers and thwart central banks as they try to taper interest-rate increases. The Saudis introduced the extra million-barrel cut earlier this summer as a unilateral move, with most other members of the OPEC+ coalition already pumping below their assigned targets and unlikely to reduce supplies further. It since has been joined by Russia, a member of the wider OPEC+ alliance, which appears to be finally delivering on pledges to lower shipments. Moscow had maintained exports for many months in order to maximize revenue for its war against Ukraine, but tanker-tracking data show that flows are starting to come down.

How Are Saudi Oil Production Cuts Affecting the Country's Economy? --- From what Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) can see, Saudi Arabia’s oil production cuts aren’t affecting the country’s economy in a material way. That’s according to Al Salazar, a Senior Vice President at EIR, who told Rigzone that last year was a strong one for Saudi GDP growth, which he highlighted was up 8.7 percent year on year, according to the IMF. “Undoubtedly that was buoyed by very strong oil prices,” Salazar said. “This year the IMF has them at a more normal 3.1 percent year on year growth rate for 2023. Headlines may surface showing year on year GDP figures are slowing, but I’d argue that it’s hard to beat last year’s anomalous pace,” he added. “Looking deeper at their high-frequency economic releases – monthly sentiment indexes (Purchasing Manager’s Index) are well into expansionary territory and trending higher. This feels bullish,” Salazar continued. When asked if Saudi Arabia can afford to maintain its cuts, and if so, for how long, Salazar highlighted to Rigzone that “Saudi has historically had deep pockets and access to capital if need be (see Saudi Aramco IPO)”. “Cutting production should lead to higher oil prices, providing a mathematical offset to bottom-line revenues,” he added. “There is some optimal level of production cut that should lead an oil price rise that leaves the kingdom’s bottom line relatively unscathed. We’re pretty sure that the Saudi’s have done this calculation and are not putting themselves in any sort of material financial duress given their market intervention,” Salazar continued. “Lastly, at $85 per barrel Brent, we doubt they’re losing money on a per barrel basis,”

Oil Prices Set For Largest Monthly Gain Since January 2022 -Oil prices were poised early on Monday to end July trading with the biggest monthly gain since January 2022, buoyed by tightening supply, expectations of a record demand, slower inflation in the U.S., and a still resilient American economy. As of Asian trading on Monday, both benchmarks were trading flat after another week of gains last week. The U.S. benchmark WTI Crude was up by 0.04% early on Monday, well above the $80 per barrel mark, at $80.61. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, was slightly down from the $84.99 a barrel settlement on Friday, and traded at $84.93, down by 0.07% on the day.Oil prices were headed for their strongest monthly gain since January 2022 and the best July performance in nearly two decades.Oil is now at the highest levels since early April, pushed up by the OPEC+ production cuts which are tightening supply.Demand, on the other hand, is not only resilient butheaded for a record high in the coming months, according to analysts including Goldman Sachs and oil executives including ExxonMobil’s CEO Darren Woods.The world will see a record-high demand for oil this year, Exxon’s top executive told CNBC on Friday.In addition, the market expects Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude oil exporter, and OPEC+ leader, to extend its 1 million bpd production cut into September, too. The Kingdom is cutting its production by 1 million bpd in July and August, on top of around 500,000 bpd reduction as part of the OPEC+ cuts that began in May. Russia has pledged a 500,000 bpd cut to August oil exports, and signs suggest Russian crude shipments are already falling.The macroeconomic sentiment has also improved, with the recent inflation data from the U.S. showing slowing price increases and China expected to support its economy out of the slower-than-expected growth in the second quarter.

The Oil Markets Finished Higher on Monday Marking the Third Straight Trading Session of Price Gains -The oil markets finished higher on Monday marking the third straight trading session of price gains. The September Brent, which expired today, finished the trading session up 0.7% at $85.56 a barrel while the September WTI contract finished up $1.22 per barrel or 1.5% at $81.80. Both Brent and WTI saw their highs of the day reach the highest level since late April and recorded their steepest monthly gains since January 2022 as traders remained nervous that global supplies would continue to tighten as a result of OPEC+ production restraint and expectation for rising demand through the remainder of the year.Goldman Sachs in a research note to clients said it sees global oil demand rising to 102.8 million b/d in July and it has revised upward its 2023 demand estimate by 550,000 b/d due to stronger economic growth estimates in India and the U.S. being able to offset a downgraded estimate for Chinese oil consumption.The EIA Monday reported it estimates U.S. crude oil production in May stood at 12.662 million barrels, down 15,000 b/d from April levels. The EIA though revised upward its April production estimate by 62,000 b/d to 12.677 million b/d. U.S. crude oil exports in May averaged 3.789 million b/d down from the 4.009 million b/d exported in April. The EIA also said it estimates U.S. oil supplied, a proxy for demand, rose to 20.78 million b/d in May, the highest level since August 2019. Gasoline demand is estimated in May to have reached 9.11 million b/d the highest level since June 2022.A Reuters survey estimates OPEC oil output has fallen in July by 840,000 b/d from June, averaging 27.34 million b/d. Declines were led by Saudi Arabian and Nigerian production declines..The EIA’s latest Petroleum Monthly Report released Monday showed that total U.S. oil demand in May stood at 20.776 million b/d, up 2.5% from April and some 3.5% higher than the same month a year ago. Distillate demand was estimated at 3.93 million b/d up 1.4% from a year ago while gasoline demand was basically flat from a year ago, down just 2,000 b/d at 9.105 million b/d.Colonial Pipeline announced it is allocating space for Cycle 45 on Line 1, its main gasoline line.

WTI, Brent Notch 15% Monthly Gain on Tightening OPEC-Plus Supply -- West Texas Intermediate futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange settled the last trading day of July with sharp gains, propelled by expectations for tighter supply availability from OPEC+ heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia, while improved inflation and growth outlook in the United States further boosted demand expectations for the second half of the year. WTI September futures on NYMEX advanced for the fourth straight session on Monday to a 15-month $81.80-per-barrel (bbl) high settlement on the spot continuous chart after breaking through the 200-day moving average on July 24. ICE Brent futures for September delivery expired $0.57 per bbl higher on Monday at a 15-week spot high $85.80 per bbl, with the October contract narrowing its discount to $0.13 per bbl on the session. Both WTI and Brent contracts advanced 15% in July, the largest monthly gain since January 2022. A combination of production cuts from OPEC+ and an improved U.S. macroeconomic outlook have lifted the crude complex to fresh highs in July. Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC+'s two largest oil producers, are expected to extend production and export cuts, respectively, into the final months of the year when they meet on Thursday, Aug. 3, for a Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting. OPEC+ has implemented some 3.7 million barrels per day (bdp) in output reduction since October, with Riyadh topping the deal with a unilateral 1-million-bpd production cut for July and August, putting upward pressure on oil prices. Traders and analysts expect Saudi Arabia this week to rollover its unilateral cut into at least September, when the Atlantic Basin hurricane season peaks, further tightening the global supply balance. According to market sources, traders in Asia have increasingly turned to supplies outside OPEC+, namely the United States and North Sea, as Saudis and Russians cut back on exports. In terms of strategy, Riyadh has been vocal that it is targeting higher oil prices to meet vast socioeconomic projects included in its "Saudi 2020 Vision." Russia, which has been forced to reengineer its oil trading amid Western sanctions for its full-scale invasion of the Ukraine, has rerouted millions of barrels in oil and refined products exports to the Asian region. Moscow is interested in pushing oil prices as high as possible so it can narrow the discount for its barrels. Some analysts estimate the Russian budget now requires an oil price of $120 per bbl to pay for its vast military expenditures in Ukraine along with socioeconomic projects domestically. For context, Russia needed an oil price of just $40 per bbl to balance its budget before the beginning of the Ukrainian offensive in February 2022. Domestically, a myriad of unplanned refinery outages in Texas and Louisiana tied to extreme heat have further bolstered refined product prices. NYMEX August RBOB futures advanced more than 18% in July, as U.S. gasoline inventories dropped to about 7% below the five-year average. At expiration, the August RBOB contract fell $0.0268 to $2.9290 per gallon, having retreated from Friday's nine-month $2.9936 intraday high on the spot continuous chart. September futures narrowed its discount to the August contract $0.0335 gallon with a $2.8955-per-gallon settlement. NYMEX August ULSD futures rallied $0.0323 on the session for a $2.9909-per-gallon expiration, the highest settlement on the spot continuous chart since Jan. 31 when the February contract expired at $3.1823 per gallon. The September ULSD contract increased to $2.2955 gallon, up $0.0357.

Oil Prices Fall On China Demand Worries -Oil prices fell Tuesday on demand worries as weak PMI data from Asia and Europe revived worries about global growth and fuel demand. Benchmark Brent crude futures dropped half a percent to $84.94 a barrel, while WTI crude futures were down 0.6 percent at $81.28. However, both Brent and WTI contracts held near three-month highs on signs of tightening global supply and hopes of increased demand through the rest of this year. The voluntary output cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia have come into effect from today. Traders also remain hopeful that Saudi Arabia will extend voluntary output cuts into September and tighten the global supply even further. A private survey showed today that factory activity in China, the world's largest importer of crude, fell into contraction territory for the first time since April. Another report showed that average new home prices in 100 Chinese cities fell for a third consecutive month in July. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam also saw manufacturing activity contracting in July, raising fresh concerns about Asia's fragile economic recovery. In Europe, the HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 42.7 in July from 43.4 in the previous month, marking the lowest in three years. U.K. factory output fell at the fastest pace in seven months in July, hit by higher interest rates while British retail sales fell in July at the fastest rate since April 2022, separate reports showed.

Crude Oil Slides on Stronger USD with Stock Data in Focus - The crude contracts posted modest losses on Tuesday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and weak industrial data for the Eurozone, where manufacturing activity deteriorated to the lowest level since spring 2020 amid dull consumer demand. The greenback's renewed strength follows a slew of dismal Eurozone manufacturing data, where all signs point to a protracted recession in the second half of the year. This has pressured the Euro against its main rival, the U.S. dollar, on the first trading session of August, with the greenback rallying 0.45% against a basket of foreign currencies. The headline manufacturing index for the German economy slid last month to the lowest level since May 2020, reflecting weak demand conditions for a broad category of consumer goods, showed data released by S&P Global overnight. German and European manufacturers broadly reported challenges in securing new work across many key export markets in Asia and the United States. This was reflected in a sharp and accelerated reduction in international sales. "These are ugly figures. The fall in demand for German manufactured goods, as measured by the survey's new orders index, is one of the most pronounced over roughly the last 30 years," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. "The risks for the German economy as a whole running into trouble during the second half of the year have clearly increased." Domestically, the manufacturing sector did not fare much better, with the headline Purchasing Managers Index released Tuesday morning by the Institute of Supply Management revealing business conditions across all but one large industry remained in contraction. "Current U.S. market conditions of inflationary and recessionary tactics affecting overall business. Customers are reducing or not placing orders as forecast, putting internal focus on reducing financial liabilities and overhead costs," said a representative from the computer and electronic products sector surveyed by ISM. "Sales in our industry are extremely slow entering into the second half of the year, and no upturn is expected until at least the fourth quarter," assessed a representative from the chemical products industry. Also on Tuesday, oil traders positioned ahead of the weekly inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute scheduled for release at 4:30 p.m. EDT, followed by official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration Wednesday morning. The consensus of analysts and traders surveyed by the Wall Street Journal calls for U.S. commercial crude oil inventories to have declined by 1.3 million barrels (bbl) during the week ended July 28. Gasoline inventories are also projected to have decreased by 1.3 million bbl from the previous week. Stocks of distillates, which are mostly diesel fuel, are projected to have declined by a modest 100,000 bbl from the previous week, with a wide range of estimates from a decrease of 3 million bbl to an increase of 1.4 million bbl. U.S. distillate inventories currently sit almost 14% below the five-year average. On the first trading day of August, WTI September futures on NYMEX slipped $0.43 per bbl from a 15-month high on Monday to settle at $81.37 per bbl, while the new front-month October Brent contract declined $0.52 for a $84.91-per-bbl settlement. NYMEX September RBOB futures moved $0.0225 lower to $2.8730 per gallon, continuing a retreat from the July 28 $2.9936 nine-month high on the spot continuous chart traded by the now-expired August contract. Bucking the trend, the September ULSD contract on NYMEX advanced to a fresh six-month high $3.0725 on the spot continuous chart before settling the session at $3.0234 per gallon, up $0.0379.

Oil Prices Balloon On Largest Single-Week Crude Inventory Crash In Years -- Crude oil inventories in the United States unexpectedly fell sizably this week by 15.4 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed on Tuesday after increasing by 1.319 million barrels in the week prior. Analysts were expecting a draw of 900,000 barrels in U.S. crude-oil inventories. The total number of barrels of crude oil gained so far this year is 20 million barrels, according to API data, although the net draw in crude inventories since April is 27 million barrels. On Monday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported no change for the third week in a row to the inventory held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the week ending July 28, with the SPR inventory still sitting at a 40-year low of 346.8 million barrels. The price of WTI and Brent were both trading down on Tuesday in the run-up to the data release. By 4:18 p.m. EST, WTI was trading down 0.09%, at $81.73 per barrel—up more than $2 per barrel since last Tuesday, while Brent crude was trading down 0.20% at $85.26—up just under $2 this from this time last week. Gasoline inventories saw another draw this week, falling by 1.68 million barrels after falling 1.043 million barrels in the week prior, with inventories already 7% less than the five-year average. Distillate inventories fell by 512,000 barrels, compared to the 1.614 million barrel build in the week prior. Crude oil production in the United States slipped to 12.2 million bpd for the week ending July 21, according to EIA data, flat compared to production levels at the start of the year. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by another 1.76 million barrels, after falling by 2.34 million barrels in the previous week.

WTI Extends Losses Despite The Largest Weekly Crude Inventory Drawdown Ever Oil prices jumped overnight (near YTD highs) after API reported a massive (record) crude inventory drawdown, but have tumbled this morning as the dollar rallies and bonds & stocks are dumped. "The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will meet online on Friday, providing Saudi Arabia an excellent opportunity to roll its voluntary 1 million bpd production cut announced on June 3 for July production for another month to September. It would be the second time the Saudis have extended the voluntary 1 million bpd production cut. There is speculation that another 1 million roll forward could slow the global war on inflation, and kill the "golden goose," especially heading into the end of summer driving season, and the beginning of shoulder season," Volumes also remain muted in light summer trading, while volatility is at the lowest since January 2020.API

• Crude -15.4mm (-1.3mm exp) - biggest weekly draw on record
• Cushing -1.76mm
• Gasoline -1.68mm (-1.3mm exp)
• Distillates -512k (-100k exp)

DOE

• Crude -17.05mm (-1.3mm exp) - biggest weekly draw on record
• Cushing -1.259mm
• Gasoline +1.481mm (-1.3mm exp)
• Distillates -796k (-100k exp)

Confirming API's report, the official data shows a massive 17 million barrel crude draw last week - the biggest ever (in at least 40 years)...The total US Crude inventory is now back at its lowest since Jan... The so-called adjustment factor tumbled last week from a record positive... As a reminder, the Biden admin has been drawing down on the SPR for the last 14 weeks and - despite all the promises - has not refilled the "STRATEGIC" political petroleum reserve one little bit. So yeah: just 3 weeks after the DOE said it would buy a "whopping" 6 million barrels of sour crude - an amount which the SPR drained every 2 weeks for much of the past year - the Biden administration pulled said offer, an Energy Department spokesperson said on Tuesday, as oil prices are expected to keep rising after a output cut from Saudi Arabia. The U.S. made the latest solicitation to buy the sour crude oil for the SPR on July 7, and follows the release of a record 180 million barrels from the reserve last year to prevent a Democrat rout in the midterms following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Having vowed it would refill the SPR eventually, the Energy Department bought back 6.3 million barrels in recent month... and that appears to be it. The move was not a rejection of oil companies' offers to sell oil to the SPR but a decision made on "market conditions," the spokesperson said. The person not specify what that meant, but tight oil supplies that have caused global oil prices to rise above $80 per barrel in recent weeks. Of course, by refusing to refill now, it only ensures that when the need truly arises, Biden, or rather his successor, will be forced to buy the oil at triple digits.

Oil settle lower despite record US crude stock drawdown (Reuters) - Oil prices settled down 2% on Wednesday despite a historic drop in U.S. crude stocks, as traders derisk following the downgrade of the U.S. government's top credit by a major ratings agency. U.S. crude stocks fell in the week by 17 million barrels, the largest drop in U.S. crude inventories according to records dating back to 1982, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. The draw was driven by increased refinery runs and strong crude exports Despite the record stock draw, U.S. oil prices fell amid falls across financial markets after rating agency Fitch downgraded the U.S. government's top credit rating. U.S. crude futures settled down $1.88, or 2.3%, to $79.49 a barrel while Brent crude futures settled down $1.71, or 2%, to $83.20 a barrel. Both contracts rose by more than $1 earlier on the session, buoyed by falling U.S. stockpiles in Tuesday's data from the American Petroleum Industry, which also indicated a large U.S. stockpile drawdown. That the U.S. government has pulled an offer to buy 6 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve also pushed prices lower, traders and analysts said. Total product supplied - a proxy for demand - also fell by 1.3 million barrels in the week to 20 million barrels per day, the EIA said. Crude oil inventories have also begun to drop in other regions as demand outpaces supply, which has been constrained by deep production cuts from Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said. Concerns have risen that oil buying in China, the world's biggest oil importer, may slow as prices rise. Weak PMI data released this week, meanwhile, indicated fuel demand may be weaker than expected. "Chinese crude buying has been opportunistic rather than due to higher demand. (The) market continues to be driven purely by supply constraints, which are always subject to potential political volatility," Analysts expect Saudi Arabia to extend its voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day for another month to include September in a meeting of producers on Friday. OPEC+, which groups OPEC and allies led by Russia, is unlikely to revise its current oil output policy when a panel meets on Friday, six OPEC+ sources told Reuters.

Oil Prices Decline Amid Broad Risk Aversion - Oil prices fell further from three-month highs on Thursday despite data showing a historic drop in U.S. crude inventories. Benchmark Brent crude futures dropped 0.6 percent to $82.70 a barrel, with a firmer dollar and worries about U.S. fiscal position weighing on prices. WTI crude futures were down 0.4 percent at $79.16. The dollar is finding support from the risk-off mood triggered by Fitch's unexpected downgrade of U.S. sovereign rating. Signs of resilience in the U.S. labor market also revived Fed rate hike bets and supported the dollar. The downside in oil prices remained capped somewhat after a record drop in U.S. inventories indicated a substantial tightening in crude markets. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Thursday that crude inventories in the U.S. dropped by 17.049 million barrels in the week ended July 28, substantially larger than an expected drop of just about 1.37 million barrels. Also, worries about Chinese growth eased somewhat after a private survey China's services sector activity expanded at a stronger pace in July compared to June.

Saudi Arabia Extending its Voluntary Output Cut of 1 Million Bpd by One Month to the End of Sept - The oil market rallied higher on Thursday following the news that Saudi Arabia was extending its voluntary output cut of 1 million bpd by one month to the end of September. The oil market traded mostly sideways overnight before further selling, in follow through from Wednesday’s sell off, pushed the market to a low of $78.69 after breaching its previous low and the lower boundary of its upward trending channel at $79.05. The market later retraced some of its losses following the Saudi announcement that it was once again extending its voluntary output cut. The market was also well supported by the news that Russia was extending its export cuts of 300,000 bpd into September. The crude market continued to trend higher, rallying over $2.30 as it posted a high of $81.86 ahead of the close. The September WTI contract settled up $2.06 at $81.55, while the October Brent contract settled up $1.94 at $85.14. The product markets ended in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 7.06 cents at $3.0749 before it rallied to a high of $3.0907 in the post close session and the RB market settled down 1.11 cents at $2.7647. The state news agency SPA said Saudi Arabia will extend a voluntary oil output cut of one million bpd for another month to include September. The agency cited an official source at the ministry of energy as saying the cut can be "extended, or extended and deepened". The source said Saudi Arabia’s production for September will be approximately 9 million bpd. The source said "This additional voluntary cut comes to reinforce the precautionary efforts made by OPEC+ countries with the aim of supporting the stability and balance of oil markets." Meanwhile, a panel from OPEC+, which includes members OPEC and allies led by Russia, is meeting on Friday.White House national security spokesman, John Kirby, said the United States will continue to work with producers and consumers to ensure the energy market promotes growth after Saudi Arabia's decision to reduce oil production.Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said Russia will cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September. He said Russia will continue to voluntarily reduce its oil supply in the month of September to ensure the oil market remains balanced.Colonial Pipeline Co is allocating space for Cycle 46 on Line 1, its main gasoline line from Houston, Texas to Greensboro, North Carolina. The current allocation is for the pipeline segment north of Collins, Mississippi.Canadian Natural Resources Ltd expects the Trans Mountain expansion pipeline begin the line fill as soon as August. It expects the line fill to require up to 5 million barrels of oil.Diesel flows into Europe in July reached a six-month high of 7.13 million tons, up from 6.38 million tons in June. August arrivals so far stand at 1.77 million tons. Meanwhile, exports from northwestern Europe to the U.S. in July stood at about 1.06 million metric tons.

Oil Rallies 2% After Saudi Arabia Hints at Deeper Cuts --Oil futures powered higher in Thursday's afternoon session, sending the international crude benchmark above $85 bbl after Saudi Arabia announced a one-month extension of a unilateral 1 million bpd reduction in production, while hinting it could further deepen its crude output cut in coming months to support the global market balance. While the decision to extend the 1 million bpd production cut for a third month into September was fully expected and priced-in by the market, the hint at "deeper cuts" in the official statement from the Saudi Energy Ministry published on Saudi Press Agency has caught markets off guard, rallying oil prices back to near their three-month highs. The latest announced production cut by the Saudis comes atop of voluntary curbs of 500,000 bpd previously announced by the Kingdom in April, which are now extended until the end of December 2024. In effect, Saudi oil production for the month of September will be 9 million bpd -- their lowest output rate since 2012 outside of the pandemic. Riyadh had previously asserted its commitment to doing what's necessary in the interest of "market stability." Others might argue the production cuts are designed to push oil prices higher, with the possibility of a deeper reduction in output stoking concern over lower supply availability that would further tighten the physical oil market in the final months of the year. "[T]his additional voluntary cut comes to reinforce the precautionary efforts made by OPEC+ countries with the aim of supporting the stability and balance of oil markets," stated Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy on Thursday, according to the Saudi Press Agency. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that Moscow would taper its 500,000-bpd export cut in effect in August to 300,000 bpd in September. Novak's statement was, however, vague on details, specifically around which export level the cut would be based on, and the possible effect on Russian oil production. Russian waterborne crude exports in June fell by 465,000 bpd from a record-high 3.9 million bpd seen in May, according to vessel-tracking data. Russian then cut its oil exports by another 500,000 bpd from July, which sent its waterborne exports from Western ports to multi-month lows. The announcements come ahead of Friday's (8/4) OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting among the 23-member producer coalition, chaired by Saudi Arabia and Russia, with speculation growing that additional cuts could be on the table. Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC+'s largest oil producers, have rapidly cut back on crude exports to key markets in Asia and Europe as part of their efforts to tighten the global oil market. This, in turn, created demand pull for oil barrels outside the OPEC+ coalition, mainly from the United States and North Sea, pressuring their domestic inventory levels. At settlement, West Texas Intermediate September futures on NYMEX jumped $2.06 bbl to $81.55 bbl, and the international crude benchmark Brent contract for October delivery advanced $1.94 to settle at $85.14 bbl. NYMEX September RBOB futures moved $0.0111 lower to settle at $2.7647 gallon, while the September ULSD contract on NYMEX advanced $0.0706 to the highest settlement since Jan. 31 at $3.0706 gallon.

Oil prices are up 20% and energy stocks are rebounding Energy stocks are making a comeback after being left for dead earlier this year. The S&P 500 index’s energy sector has gained more than 6% during the third quarter so far, outperforming the benchmark index. Energy stocks faltered in the beginning of the year, defying investors’ expectations for last year’s boom to accelerate on a lack of global supply. That drop in energy stocks came despite OPEC+ producers, the cartel of oil producing countries plus Russia, announcing several output cuts in a bid to bump up crude prices. But energy stocks have finally started to gain in recent months. Saudi Arabia slashed its output by one million barrels per day in July — a move it extended Thursday through September. Those moves mark the country’s biggest production cut in years. That’s helped boost crude prices, which are hovering above $80 a barrel after dipping below $70 earlier this year. US WTI crude oil prices have gained 22% since June 11, while global benchmark Brent is up by 19%. The slashed output coincides with what’s been a busy summer of travel, heightening demand for crude. Combined with a brightening outlook for the economy as investors grow more optimistic that the Federal Reserve could soon stop raising interest rates, the picture for energy stocks is looking better than it has all year. Recent quarterly earnings reports from oil titans showed a mixed bag. But more importantly, the companies issued forward-looking guidance that, for the most part, has given investors reason to be optimistic. Chevron said in its post-earnings conference call on July 28 that it expects “to deliver strong free cash flow for years to come” and resume share buybacks through the fourth quarter, a possible signal of confidence in its upcoming financial performance. Oil companies Shell and BP both increased their quarterly dividends. OPEC+ is expected to keep its overall oil policy unchanged at a meeting Friday, Reuters reported. But the group will likely continue being vigilant in keeping oil prices higher, says Babin. That, along with an expected increase in demand as China works to revive its economy, could give more support to crude prices — though an economic slowdown could put downward pressure on prices.

Oil prices climb as Saudi Arabia, Russia supply cuts boost supply jitters | Malay Mail — Oil prices rose today with extended voluntary output cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, offsetting earlier losses due to the downgrade of the US’ long-term credit rating, reported Anadolu. International benchmark Brent crude traded at US$85.36 (RM388) per barrel at 10.16 am local time (0716 GMT), a 0.26 per cent gain from the closing price yesterday of US$85.14 per barrel. The American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at the same time at US$81.81 per barrel, up 0.32 per cent from the session close of US$81.55 per barrel yesterday. Both benchmarks fell during intraday trading over investor demand jitters as the Fitch rating agency downgraded the US’ long-term credit rating. However, prices rebounded as supply woes intensified after Saudi Arabia and Russia announced plans to extend existing supply curbs. The pledged production reduction is an extension of the country’s existing 1 million barrels per day (bpd) and “can be extended or extended and deepened”, according to a Saudi energy ministry source cited by Saudi state agency SPA. With the latest production cut, the total production of one of the world’s largest exporters of crude oil will be approximately 9 million bpd in September. This came just minutes before Russia’s announcement to cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September “as part of efforts to ensure market stability”, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. The new cuts were additions to the OPEC+ group’s already-existing output cap of around 2 million bpd announced in October 2022 and 1.6 million bpd announced in May. The Saudi-Russia cutbacks are “exacerbated by lower supply growth in other regions,” US shale oil output is likely to fall amid the steady decline in drilling activity in the country. Investors will be monitoring the OPEC+ group’s meeting later on Friday, however, the group is mostly expected to roll over its current production policy.

Oil Posts Sixth Weekly Gain on Saudi Output Cut, Weaker USD -- West Texas Intermediate futures and Brent crude advanced in afternoon trading Friday, sending both crude benchmarks higher for the sixth consecutive week after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended a round of deep production and export cuts into September, while a selloff in the U.S. dollar index in reaction to a slowing labor market further lifted the crude complex. U.S. economy added 178,000 new jobs in July -- the slowest pace since early 2021, while employment growth in the prior two months was revised lower by a combined 49,000 jobs, according to data released Friday morning from the Bureau of Labor Department. For the second month in a row, employment in leisure and hospitality, a driver of job growth in the post-pandemic labor market remained little changed, adding an average of just 17,000 new jobs over the June-July period. The average hours worked by all employees on private payrolls also declined, signaling less demand for labor. On the flip side, the national unemployment rate dropped back 0.1% from the previous month to a 3.5% 50-year low, while wages rose more than expected from the prior year to 4.4%. Investors, however, gauged the July employment report had enough ammunition for the Federal Reserve to skip a rate increase at their Sept. 20 meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing 86.5% of investors anticipating no change to the federal funds rates, which is currently in a 5.25% by 5.5% target range. In reaction to the softer-than-expected employment report, the U.S. dollar index nosedived 0.5% against a basket of foreign currencies to settle the session at a four-day low 101.836, lending upside support for the front-month West Texas Intermediate contract. WTI September futures on NYMEX rallied $1.27 bbl to a fresh three-month spot high of $82.82 bbl, and the Brent international crude benchmark for October delivery advanced $1.10 for a $86.27 bbl settlement. NYMEX September RBOB futures moved $0.0184 higher to settle at $2.7831 gallon, while the September ULSD contract was an outlier, softening $0.0127 from the highest trade in six months at $3.0954 to $3.0622 gallon. Underscoring gains in the oil complex, Saudi Arabia announced on Thursday an extension of a unilateral 1 million bpd production cut into September, while hinting that those cuts could be further extended and "deepened to support the market balances." The latest production cut by the Saudis comes atop of voluntary curbs of 500,000 bpd previously announced by the Kingdom in April, which are now extended until the end of December 2024. In effect, Saudi oil production for September will be 9 million bpd -- their lowest output rate since 2012 outside of the pandemic. Also announced Thursday, Russia said it would limit oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September, adjusting the reduction from 500,000 bpd currently. Friday morning, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee reaffirmed the continuation of previously announced production cuts through the end of 2024, with OPEC+ previously agreeing on April 3 to reduce their production collectively by about 1.2 million bpd beginning in May. The agreement in April followed previously announced production cuts, with the voluntary reduction in output by participating members lifting the total amount cut to 1.66 million bpd. Also boosting the oil complex on Friday, a Ukrainian drone attack briefly disrupted operations at Russia's major oil shipping hub, the Novorossiysk port, on the Black Sea. Traffic at the Novorossiysk port was halted for hours, according to wire services, disrupting operations at the marine terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium -- the main export route for seaborne Russian and Kazakh barrels. Some 1.9 million bpd or 2% of global oil supply is processed through the Novorossiysk port, making it one of the chokepoints for global oil trade. While short-lived, the port's closure increased concerns over the security of Black Sea oil trade in the midst of tightening global oil balances. The heightened geopolitical risk follows the termination of a one-year agreement allowing Ukrainian grains to be exported from the Black Sea unhindered by Russian attacks. Moscow declined to renew the agreement in July after the one-year term and has instead targeted Ukrainian ports along the Black Sea. For its part, Ukraine has declared any vessel leaving Russian ports on the Black Sea as a legitimate target for attack amid the escalation of the war between the two countries in recent weeks.

Opec+ made no changes to the group’s current oil output policy – GulfToday - An Opec+ ministerial panel which met on Friday made no changes to the group’s current oil output policy after a Saudi decision to extend its voluntary production cut into September helped oil prices rally further. The panel, called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, can call for a full meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and allies led by Russia, known as Opec+, if warranted. Oil prices rose more than 14% in July compared with June, the biggest monthly percentage increase since January last year, as tighter supply and rising demand outweighed concern that interest rate hikes and stubborn inflation could hit economic growth. “The committee will continue to closely assess market conditions,” an Opec statement issued after the online meeting said, adding that the panel urged members to achieve full compliance with output cut pledges. On Thursday, Opec leader Saudi Arabia said it will extend a voluntary oil output cut of one million barrels per day (bpd) for another month to include September, adding it could be extended beyond that or deepened. Oil prices on Friday traded at nearly $86 a barrel, close to their highest since mid-April. Russia will also cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said shortly after the Saudi announcement. Opec member Algeria, which announced an additional voluntary cut of 20,000 bpd for August, is yet to decide whether to extend the cut into September, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. Opec+ agreed on a broad deal to limit supply into 2024 at its last policy meeting in June, and Saudi Arabia pledged a voluntary production cut for July that it extended to include August. The group’s output cuts, excluding the additional voluntary reductions from the three producers, amount to 3.66 million bpd, roughly 3.6% of global demand. The JMMC will hold its next meeting on Oct. 4. Oil prices rose about 1% on Friday and were on track for a sixth consecutive week of gains after Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s second and third-largest crude producers, pledged to extend supply cuts through September. Brent crude futures rose 74 cents, or 0.9%, to $85.88 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 72 cents, or 0.9%, to $82.27 a barrel. Both benchmarks were set for their longest streak of weekly gains this year. Brent has risen more than 16% and WTI by over 19% during the last six weeks. Saudi Arabia on Thursday extended a voluntary oil production cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to the end of September, keeping the door open for another extension. Russia has also elected to reduce its oil exports by 300,000 bpd next month. “With the production cut extended, we anticipate a market deficit of more than 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, following an estimated deficit of around 2 million bpd in July and August,” On the demand front, global oil consumption could grow by 2.4 million bpd this year, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday The panel noted that it could take additional measures at any time, which could mean additional cuts if market conditions worsen. Weighing on oil prices, data released on Friday showed the U.S. economy maintained a moderate pace of job growth in July, but solid wage gains and a decline in the unemployment rate pointed to continued tightness in labor market conditions. Additionally, the downturn in euro zone business activity worsened more than initially thought in July and the Bank of England raised its interest rate to a 15-year peak on Thursday. Global oil demand is set to grow by 2.4 million barrels per day this year, and strong demand makes the market balanced, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday. Russian oil output remains steady at about 9.5 million barrels per day, he said after a meeting of the joint monitoring committee of OPEC and non-OPEC producers. “Russia is fully committed to the agreements that had been reached, and generally, within OPEC+ we are in full compliance with our obligations,” Novak told Russian state television. Saudi Arabia and Russia made additional pledges outside the OPEC+ agreement this week to support crude prices. “Today the market is stable in our view,” Novak said. “The prices are at an acceptable level. Thanks to the measures taken by OPEC+, including Russia, the balance of supply and demand is being maintained.”

OPEC+ Reaffirms Strategy -- OPEC+ signaled it will stay the course as group leader Saudi Arabia extends a production cut aimed at shoring up global oil markets. A monitoring committee comprising the kingdom and other key OPEC+ nations recommended no changes to the coalition’s supply policy at an online meeting on Friday, according to a delegate, who asked not to be named because the information was private. Riyadh announced on Thursday that it will extend a unilateral cutback of 1 million barrels a day into September — and potentially deepen the reduction after that — to support a fragile market. Crude prices are trading near a three-month high above $85 a barrel in London, yet fears over China’s economic rebound cloud the demand outlook. The committee “will continue to closely assess market conditions” and noted that OPEC+ members are willing “to address market developments and stand ready to take additional measures at any time,” according to a statement on the organization’s website. Major consuming nations have criticized the Saudis for constricting output when oil markets are already on track to tighten significantly, warning that a renewed inflationary spike would inflict more pain on consumers. The kingdom is getting some assistance from fellow OPEC+ member Russia, which is finally delivering on pledges to curb its supplies. Moscow announced on Thursday it will also continue export restraints into September, but taper them slightly to 300,000 barrels a day. The country is pumping 9.5 million barrels a day now, in line with its pledge to reduce production by 500,000 barrels a day since March, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in an interview with Rossiya 24 TV on Friday. The global oil market “is quite stable,” and prices are at an “acceptable level,” Novak said. The current effort is largely confined to the two OPEC+ leaders: several other nations among the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners are pumping below their assigned quotas and unable to cut further, plagued by inadequate investment and political instability. Defending the oil market has come at a cost for the Saudis, requiring them to slash output to a two-year low near 9 million barrels a day. The kingdom suffered the sharpest downgrade to economic growth projections by the International Monetary Fund, which sees the country expanding by just 1.9% this year, a fraction of its performance in 2022. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will convene again on Oct. 4, according to the statement, while the full 23-nation OPEC+ alliance is due to meet in late November.

Asia Sees Sharp Rise in Sea Robbery Incidents -- In the first half of 2023, Asia experienced a “sharp increase” in sea robbery incidents, according to Dryad Global’s latest Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA). Almost two-thirds of these occurred in the Singapore Strait, the MSTA highlighted, noting that this is one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. “The rise in sea robbery is attributed to various socio-economic factors, including the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, reduced fish catch due to climate change, and the prevailing Southwest monsoon,” the MSTA stated. “These challenges have pushed some local residents along the Singapore Strait to resort to sea robbery and petty crimes as a means to make ends meet,” it added. The Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP) Information Sharing Centre reported 59 instances of perpetrators boarding ships in Asian waters during this period, the MSTA noted. The MSTA dubbed this “a significant increase from the previous year’s 34 incidents”. “The surge in sea robbery in such a critical maritime region raises concerns and underscores the need to address the underlying socio-economic factors to mitigate future incidents,” the MSTA said. According to Dryad’s latest MSTA, which was published on July 31, total incidents in South East Asia in 2023 number 57, which the publication shows is a 12 percent rise compared to the same period last year. The total number of incidents in the Indian Ocean in 2023 are unchanged compared to the same period last year and the total number of incidents in West Africa in 2023 are down compared to the same period last year, the latest MSTA highlights.

US Military May Put Armed Troops on Commercial Ships in Strait of Hormuz - The US military may place armed troops on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would significantly raise tensions between the US and Iran, The Associated Press reported Thursday.The idea would be to protect commercial vessels from being seized by Iran, but it could result in direct clashes between the US and Iranian militaries. The US has been steadily increasing its military presence in the Persian Gulf since Iran seized two tankers earlier this year, which was provoked by the US seizing a tanker carrying Iranian oil.Using the pretext of sanctions enforcement, the US Justice Department seized the Greek tanker Suez Rajan in April and forced the ship to head for Texas instead of China as the US intended to steal the 800,000 barrels of Iranian oil it was carrying. But according to recent media reports, US companies are hesitant to discharge the oil because they fear reprisal from Iran in the Persian Gulf, and the Suez Rajan is stuck off the coast of Texas.Five unnamed US officials speaking to AP said that no final decision on placing armed troops on commercial vessels has been made. They said discussions have been ongoing between the US and Gulf Arab nations.Placing armed American troops on commercial vessels in the region would be an unprecedented action. According to AP, the US did not even take the step during the Tanker War, which was part of the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s.The Tanker War led to a one-day major naval battle between the US and Iran in 1988, which resulted in the sinking of most of the Iranian Navy. A few months after the battle, with tensions still high in the region, a US Navy vessel shot down a civilian airliner, Iran Air Flight 655, killing all 290 people onboard.

Ukraine Strikes Russian Commercial Port with Drones for First Time - Ukrainian drones struck a Russian commercial port for the first time since the start of the war. Novorossiysk was shut down for a few hours after it was hit by Ukrainian air and sea drones. Two percent of the world’s oil supply and grain are shipped from Novorossiysk.The Russian Defense Ministry claims that it was able to down several drones targeting its ports on Friday morning. Moscow says its defenses were able to disable Kiev’s drones targeting the Crimean Peninsula and Novorossiysk, a port located on the Russian mainland. The Russian military dubbed the Ukrainian strikes a “terrorist attack.”Kiev claims it carried out the attack. Ukrainian officials often deny responsibility for attacks conducted inside of Russia, in part because Kiev has made several assurances to Washington that it would not use American assurance to target Russian territory.The Associated Press published satellite photos of Novorossiysk appearing to show a damaged Russian ship at the port. The Security Service of Ukraine says it struck the Olenegorsky Gornyak, a Russian landing vessel. Some outlets are reporting the ship was severely damaged and leaking oil.A Ukrainian source speaking with Reuters asserted that the Olenegorsky Gornyak was unable to engage in combat due to the damage. “As a result of the attack, the Olenegorsky Gornyak received a serious breach and currently cannot conduct its combat missions,” the source said. “All the Russian statements about a ‘repelled attack’ are fake.”A retired Ukrainian military official told Reuters that the attack demonstrated a significant step up in abilities for Kiev as the drone flew an estimated 460 miles. “It was the first time … the Ukrainian navy projected power so far away,” he said.Novorossiysk is reported to have resumed normal operations within hours of the attack.

Russian Oil, Grain Export Hub Disrupted by Ukraine Attack on Warship --Russia’s commodity export hub in the Black Sea was closed for several hours on Friday after a Ukrainian drone attack on a naval vessel, the first time that operations at the key shipment point for oil and grains have been disrupted by the war. The overnight assault by two naval drones was repelled without damage to port facilities, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. Ukraine’s state security service was responsible for the attack that targeted and disabled the Russian landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak, according to a security official familiar with the matter. Russia’s Defense Ministry didn’t respond to questions about the status of the ship. The incident highlights the growing risk to the flow of raw materials from the Black Sea. Moscow is seeking to further cripple Ukraine’s ability to export grains, while Kyiv has threatened commensurate action against Russia. “This attack on Novorossiysk seems to have been very limited, but the risk of further attacks on Russian and Ukrainian ports and export infrastructure will lead to a lot of volatility,” said Carlos Mera, an analyst at Rabobank. Wheat futures rose as much as 3.5% after the attack. Brent crude advanced 0.8% to $85.78 a barrel as of 11:29 a.m. in London. In the almost 18 months that Russia has waged its war against Ukraine, its ability to export commodities has been affected principally by sanctions. Europe banned most imports of the country’s oil, while the G-7 imposed price cap that restricts Moscow’s petroleum sales. There is one notable exception — two Russian gas pipelines to Europe called Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 that were damaged by explosions in September 2022. The conduits were already shut down at the time of the blasts but the attacks removed a key point of Moscow’s leverage as it sought to use gas exports as an economic weapon against Europe. The New York Times subsequently reported that a “pro-Ukrainian group” was responsible for the blasts. Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter and Novorossiysk ranks as one of the main shipment points. The country is in the midst of a second bumper harvest, making this a crucial time for getting grain onto global markets. The drone attack adds to the tumult faced by the Black Sea crop trade after Russia pulled out of a deal last month that had established a safe corridor for grain shipments from three Ukrainian ports. The nation’s exports are now confined to smaller river and land routes, and Russia has launched multiple attacks on port infrastructure in the weeks since the pact ended. Novorossiysk also ships oil, coal and fertilizer. Nearby is the export terminal for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which loads tankers with about 1.3 million barrels a day of crude from fields in both Russia and Kazakhstan. The latter country has become a crucial sources of oil for Europe after it banned imports from Russia. Russian authorities briefly halted marine traffic around Novorossiysk, but ship movements resumed at 10:39 a.m. Moscow time on Friday, CPC said in statement. During the disruption, the oil terminal continued to load tankers that were already moored.

Russia promises retaliation after Ukrainian drones hit a Russian tanker in 2nd sea attack in a day - (AP) — Moscow promised retaliation Saturday after Ukrainian drones hit a Russian tanker in the Black Sea near Crimea late Friday, the second sea attack involving drones in one day.Ukraine struck a major Russian port earlier on Friday.Moscow strongly condemned what it sees as a Ukrainian “terrorist attack” on a civilian vessel in the Kerch Strait, said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.“There can be no justification for such barbaric actions, they will not go unanswered and their authors and perpetrators will inevitably be punished,” she wrote on the Telegram messaging app.As Kyiv’s naval capabilities grow, the Black Sea is becoming an increasingly important battleground in the war.Three weeks ago, Moscow withdrew from a key export agreement that allowed Ukraine to ship millions of tons of grain across the Black Sea for sale on world markets. In the wake of that withdrawal, Russia carried out repeated strikes on Ukrainian ports, including Odesa.An official with Ukraine’s Security Service confirmed to The Associated Press that the service was behind the attack on the tanker, which was transporting fuel for Russian forces. A sea drone, filled with 450 kilograms (992 pounds) of TNT, was used for the attack, added the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to give official statements.“The Sig tanker ... suffered a hole in the engine room near the waterline on the starboard side, presumably as a result of a sea drone attack,” Russia’s Federal Agency for Marine and River Transport wrote on Telegram, adding that there were no casualties among the 11 crew members.

‘It’s a new era for Arab space exploration,’ Emirati astronaut Sultan AlNeyadi tells Arab News -Manned missions launched by the UAE and Saudi Arabia signal “a new era in Arab space exploration,” Emirati astronaut Sultan AlNeyadi has told Arab News from the International Space Station.As the first Arab astronaut deployed on a long-term space mission, having arrived on the ISS in March alongside three Americans and three Russians, and the first Arab to perform a spacewalk, AlNeyadi is blazing a trail for the Arab world’s budding space industry. “Honestly, it’s a great honor to follow in the footsteps of the pioneers in space in the Arab world: Prince Sultan bin Salman, Muhammed Faris and my colleague, Hazzaa AlMansoori, who traveled to space before me,” he said during an interview conducted from the Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Centre in Dubai via video link with the ISS on Friday.AlNeyadi was referring to Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan, who flew aboard the American STS-51-G Space Shuttle Discovery mission in 1985, becoming the first Arab in space; Faris, the first Syrian and the second Arab in space, traveling aboard the Soyuz TM-3 to the Mir space station in 1987; and AlMansoori, the first Emirati in space, spending eight days on board the ISS in 2019. Adnan AlRais, assistant director general (space operations and exploration sector) and mission manager of UAE Astronaut Programme, gives Arab News reporter Lama Alhamawi a tour of the Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Centre in Dubai. (AN Photo) “It’s a great achievement for all of the missions, yet we need to look further into new challenges,” said AlNeyadi.“The mission we are conducting now, it’s a pure example of that. Spending six months on board the station is really important to participate in the human effort to push the boundaries of space exploration. “And the EVA (extravehicular activity) that I conducted, it’s the first of (its) kind from the Arab world and definitely, it will open the door for many astronauts to join.”Saudi Arabia and the UAE have both been investing in their respective space industries, with a heavy emphasis on technology and medical research.The Saudi Space Agency was launched four years ago by royal decree to accelerate economic diversification, enhance research and development, and raise private-sector participation in the global space industry.Since its launch, the Kingdom’s state-funded space program has struck deals with several of the world’s established space agencies, astronautical companies, and top universities to benefit from advanced technological cooperation.On May 22, Rayyanah Barnawi, a scientist who became the first Saudi woman to go into space, and Ali Alqarni, a trained fighter pilot, traveled to the ISS on a private mission.

WSJ: 20,000-50,000 Ukrainians Have Lost Limbs Since Russia Invaded - Between 20,000 and 50,000 Ukrainians have lost one or more limbs since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.The figure is based on estimates made by prosthetics firms, doctors, and charities. The number could be higher as it takes time to register amputees after they undergo surgery, and fighting has intensified since Ukraine launched its counteroffensive in June.The higher-end estimate of 50,000 came from the German prosthetics manufacturer Ottobock, which cited data from the government and medical partners. The estimate of 20,000 was based on data from the Kyiv-based charity Health of the Ukrainian People ICF. The charity estimates the number of serious injuries in the war is at 200,000 and says about 10% of serious injuries typically require amputations.The number of Ukrainian amputations puts the war on the scale of World War I. According to the report, some 67,000 Germans and 41,000 Britons had to have amputations during the four-year war. Less than 2,000 Americans who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan in this century have had amputations.Ukraine has kept its casualty rates a secret throughout the war for propaganda purposes, but the staggering number of Ukrainians who lost limbs gives an idea of the human cost of the war.Citing Ukrainian military estimates shared with American surgeons, theJournal report said that out of 100 soldiers wounded within about 3 miles of the front line, 36% suffered very severe injuries, while between 5% and 10% of all deployed troops were killed.

Russian Strikes Hit Ukrainian Port City Near Romanian Border - Russian strikes were reported in the Ukrainian port city of Izmail, which is on a section of the Danube River that acts as a border between Ukraine and NATO member Romania.Ukrainian officials said Izmail was attacked with drones. They said fires broke out at port and industrial facilities, and a grain elevator was damaged. Russia’s RIA news agency cited sources who reported similar damage and added that a facility housing foreign mercenaries was also hit.Russian strikes so close to Romania run the risk of Russian drones or Ukrainian air defense missiles landing in NATO territory. In November 2022, when a Ukrainian missile landed in Poland, Ukrainian officials claimed it was Russian in an effort to get NATO to intervene directly against Russia.Russia has been targeting Ukraine’s ports on the Danube and elsewhere since withdrawing from the Black Sea grain deal. Russian officials have said that the uptick in strikes in the region was a response to the latest bombing of the Crimean Bridge, which connects Crimea to the Russian mainland.“Russian terrorists have once again targeted ports, grain facilities and global food security,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on Telegram on Wednesday. “The world must respond.”The grain deal facilitated the export of grain out of Ukrainian ports, but Russia chose not to extend the agreement because it wasn’t satisfied with UN and Western efforts to make it easier to ship Russian agricultural goods, which was another aspect of the deal. Moscow said it would restore the grain deal if its conditions were met. One of Russia’s main demands is reconnecting the Russian Agricultural Bank to the SWIFT payment system.

Brazil's Lula Says Neither Putin Nor Zelensky are Ready for Peace in Ukraine - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Wednesday that his country was trying to work toward peace in Ukraine but that neither side is ready to end the fighting.“Neither Putin nor Zelensky are ready,” the Brazilian leader said, according to Reuters. “Brazil’s role is to try to arrive at a peace proposal together with others for when both countries want it.”Lula criticized the UN Security Council for failing to stop the war and for failing to prevent US and other Western invasions. “The UN Security Council has not worked. United States invaded Iraq, France and England invaded Libya, now Russia. And everyone has veto power,” he said.Brazil has been working with other neutral countries to push for peace. Many African nations and China have offered frameworks for a peace deal, but there’s no sign that negotiations will happen anytime soon.Ukraine is demanding a full Russian withdrawal before negotiations can happen, which is a non-starter for negotiations with Moscow. For their part, Russia says it’s open to talks but insists any future deal must recognize the territory it annexed in Ukraine as Russian.Peace talks that were held in the early days of Russia’s invasion had a chance, but they were discouraged by the US and its allies. Turkey said at the time that some NATO countries wanted to continue the war to “weaken” Russia, something Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin openly acknowledged was a US goal in Ukraine.

Scratched my left eye with toothpick, cracked rib: US-Chilean journalist describes torture in Ukrainian prison --Chilean-American blogger Gonzalo Lira, who was detained by Ukrainian intelligence in May due to allegations of having pro-Russian sympathies, resurfaced on the internet on Monday and recounted a distressing tale of physical assaults and blackmail while awaiting a show trial.“I was tortured in two of the four cells I was in—by the other prisoners,” Lira posted in a 25-tweet thread on Monday evening.“I got a cracked rib in my first cell, but it wasn’t too bad. The worst stretch was in my fourth cell. From 1 pm on June 21 until 7 pm the next day — 30 hours” two inmates tortured him and at one point “used a toothpick to scratch the whites of my left eye, while asking me if I could still read if I had just one,” Lira wrote.Reportedly, one of the individuals involved in the torture of the 55-year-old blogger was supposedly rebuked for causing bruising on the blogger’s chest, as the instructions had been to avoid leaving any visible marks.Lira shared images of the documents detailing the accusations against him, indicating that his imprisonment was a result of his social media posts and YouTube videos. He pointed out that one particular video titled ‘Ukraine: A Primer’, where he provided an analysis of the conflict with Russia and attributed the provocation to Kiev, had caught the authorities’ attention and led to his situation.According to Lira, he was beaten and tortured because the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) wanted to extort his entire savings, which amounted to approximately $100,000 when considering the value of the confiscated computers and phones.Upon being informed that he would be declared guilty and face a sentence of 5-8 years in a labor camp during his imminent trial, Lira made the decision to leave Ukraine and pursue asylum in Hungary.“I’m posting this thread just as I’m getting to the border checkpoint,” he tweeted. “If you don’t hear from me in the next 12 hours—whelp! I’m on my way to a labor camp! Wish me luck.”Lira acknowledged the Chilean Embassy for any assistance he received while in detention, highlighting that the US Embassy reached out to him three times but only offered “support” without any substantial help. He also expressed concerns that the US might extradite him back to Ukraine due to his belief that Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland holds animosity towards him, as he has been told.

US Citizen Who Was Arrested in Ukraine for His Speech Attempts to Flee to Hungary - Gonzalo Lira, an American citizen who was arrested in Ukraine in May, said on social media on Monday night that he was released on bail and was attempting to cross into Hungary to seek political asylum. Lira is a popular YouTuber and writer and was arrested by the Ukrainian Security Services (SBU) for creating content that was critical of the Ukrainian government and explaining how the Russia-Ukraine war was provoked. He was charged over claims that he justified the Russian invasion.Lira wrote on Twitter, now known as X, that his trial was scheduled for August 2 and that he was told he would be found guilty, and that his sentence will be five to eight years in a prison labor camp.“If you don’t hear from me in the next 12 hours—whelp! I’m on my way to a labor camp!” he wrote. It’s been over 24 hours since his tweet and since he uploaded videos to YouTube explaining the situation, posts Lira said he made just as he was getting to the Ukraine-Hungary border checkpoint.Lira posted a document that he said was the indictment against him, both in Ukrainian and an English translation. “My indictment explicitly states that all I did was discuss publicly known facts about the war—the epitome of free speech in a democracy,” he said.Lira alleged that he was tortured during his time in a Ukrainian prison. “Once inside Sizo Prison, I was tortured in two of the four cells I was in—by the other prisoners. Guards NEVER beat prisoners—they outsource torture to the other prisoners. One prisoner actually apologized to me, telling me he had no choice. He wasn’t lying. I understood,” he said.Lira, who is also a Chilean citizen, said the State Department did not offer much help. “The US embassy called me three times, but gave me nothing but ‘support’—empty bromides,” he said.

Gonzalo Lira Reports Torture in Ukraine Prison, Extortion, Inevitable Conviction with Sentence of 5 to 8 Years in Labor Camp - by Yves Smith - Gonzalo Lira is alive, as the videos embedded below and a fresh 25-entry tweetstorm attest. However, he has a very ugly story to report. He was detained and repeatedly tortured by prisoners at the behest of guards, so as to create official deniability.He was allowed to go free by virtue of paying $70,000 in bribes (after having stolen $9,000 of “emergency cash”) plus $11,000 in bail to be set loose before an August 2 trial date, where he was told his conviction was a certainty, despite the prosecution effectively admitting in its own filings that Gonzalo’s only crime was running afoul of Ukraine’s extreme restrictions on free speech. The anticipated sentence was 5 to 8 years in a labor camp. Gonzalo was not given access to an attorney despite claims otherwise.And predictably, the State Department was not help, due not just to Gonzalo’s critical reporting on the US role in the conflict and outing some Western propaganda, but no doubt more specifically to his video on Russia-hater-in-chief Victoria Nuland, who was just promoted to number two at State. Representatives of the US Embassy did visit him three times, but offered, as Gonzalo put it, only bromides. But apparently there was enough noise made, particularly by the Chilean government, about Gonzalo not being allowed to post bail, so State apparently did eventually clear its throat about that.The one bit of good news is Gonzalo is fleeing coop and that is apparently what the authorities want. He was told while incarcerated that he was supposed to leave Ukraine after the late time he was detained (but not roughed up then) and didn’t understand the message:Gonzalo said he is going to Hungary to seek asylum. I would not be so open about my plans unless there were well settled procedures at border checks for asylum seekers… and I would not be confident of Ukraine compliance. Perhaps this announcement is a smokescreen.Needless to say, the US failure to intervene is yet more evidence this country no longer operates by the rule of law (American citizens are entitled to support of their embassies when abroad), particularly when we have bought and paid for the Ukraine government and are able to tell them what to do.Gonzalo Lira’s status report is getting traction outside the Twitterverse:

• Pro-Russian blogger Gonzalo Lira detained in Kharkiv The New Voice of Ukraine but just reposted on Yahoo, which suggests it will get around
• Scratched my left eye with toothpick, cracked rib: US-Chilean journalist describes torture in Ukrainian prison FirstPost
• Judge Napolitano and I Talk Intelligence and Gonzalo Lira Speaks Larry Johnson
• US-Chilean journalist describes torture in Ukrainian prison RT

And the videos: Please circulate widely. More exposure is Gonzalo’s best protection at this point.

Supporters of Niger’s coup march through the capital waving Russian flags and denouncing France - Days after after mutinous soldiers ousted Niger’s democratically elected president, uncertainty is mounting about the country’s future and some are calling out the junta’s reasons for seizing control. The mutineers said they overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum, who was elected two years ago in Niger’s first peaceful, democratic transfer of power since independence from France, because he wasn’t able to secure the nation from growing jihadi violence. But some analysts and Nigeriens say that’s just a pretext for a takeover that is more about internal power struggles than securing the nation. “Everybody is wondering why this coup? That’s because no one was expecting it. We couldn’t expect a coup in Niger because there’s no social, political or security situation that would justify that the military take the power,” Prof. Amad Hassane Boubacar, who teaches at the University of Niamey, told The Associated Press. He said Bazoum wanted to replace the head of the presidential guard, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, who also goes by Omar and is now in charge of the country. Tchiani was loyal to Bazoum’s predecessor and that sparked the problems, Boubacar said. The AP cannot independently verify his assessment. While Niger’s security situation is dire, it’s not as bad as neighboring Burkina Faso or Mali, which have also have been battling an Islamic insurgency linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. Last year Niger was the only one of the three to see a decline in violence, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. Niger until now has been seen as the last reliable partner for the West in efforts to battle the jihadists in Africa’s Sahel region, where Russia and Western countries have vied for influence in the fight against extremism. France has 1,500 soldiers in the country who conduct joint operations with the Nigeriens, and the United States and other European countries have helped train the nation’s troops. Some taking part in Sunday’s rally also warned regional bodies who have denounced the coup to stay away. “I would like also to say to the European Union, African Union and ECOWAS, please please stay out of our business,” said Oumar Barou Moussa who was at the demonstration. “It’s time for us to take our lives, to work for ourselves. It’s time for us to talk about our freedom and liberty. We need to stay together, we need to work together, we need to have our true independence,” he said.

French Invasion of Niger Could Turn into All-Out Franco-African War - Ever since the Nigerien military under the command of General Abdourahamane Tchiani took power on July 26, there has been an exponential increase in tensions between Niamey and its former colonial masters in Paris. This has gone to the point where France is now seriously considering invading the West African country. The exploitation of “former” French colonies has continued unabated for over half a century even after they were granted a semblance of independence and Paris has been the main beneficiary of this one-sided relationship. Combined with France’s inability to deal with various terrorist insurgencies in the region, this unadulterated neocolonial theft has been the primary reason behind a series of popular uprisings in the Sahel.Paris is now faced with a strategic dilemma. If it lets Niger continue its path toward actual independence, France will be unable to continue exploiting the country’s natural resources. Namely, several of its former colonies have served as a source of massive wealth extraction and given the recent troubles Paris is facing, these resources might be more important than ever. On the other hand, recent geopolitical changes in the area have left France largely impuissant. After the defeat of its nearly decade-long intervention in Chad last year, Paris has been left with bases in Ivory Coast, Senegal and Gabon. Neither of these can be used effectively as a staging ground for an invasion due to the limited number of troops stationed there.However, even if France was to somehow find enough soldiers to launch the invasion, none of the three countries border Niger. Gabon is the least logical option, as Cameroon and Nigeria stand between it and Niger, leaving only bases in Senegal and Ivory Coast as viable possibilities. And yet, this is where the issues of basic geography for Paris stop and actual geopolitical ones start. Namely, in order to effectively use its forces from both countries to reach Niger, France needs to go through Mali and Burkina Faso, both of which have already stated that any military action against Niamey will be tantamount to aggression against them. In other words, if France wants to attack Niger, it will also need to attack two more African countries.A possible alternative for Paris could be the use of its neocolonial influence in the ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States, also known as CEDEAO in French and Portuguese). However, this leaves its members at risk of more anti-Western uprisings, as the belligerent power pole is deeply unpopular in the area. Some members of the ECOWAS, such as Nigeria, might be the best geographical option, but given the fact that Paris has little to no influence in Abuja, this is extremely unlikely. Not to mention the fact that Nigeria has more than enough problems of its own and the last thing it needs is to serve as the staging ground for a neocolonial invasion. Logically, this leaves Chad as the only option, but this too is a very long shot.To make matters worse for France, Algeria has joined the chorus of Niger’s allies. The French archrival that spearheaded the independence of many of its “former” colonies in the 1960s is effectively an African superpower, heavily armed and highly motivated to never allow Paris or any other Western (neo)colonial power to establish a firm foothold in the region. This still leaves Chad as the only viable option for an invasion, as the country was an instrumental staging ground for virtually all French military operations in the area, including the illegal invasion of Libya. However, reaching Chad at this point is easier said than done and this still leaves most of the geopolitical issues unresolved. Also, all geographical considerations remain.Namely, the Nigerien capital of Niamey is located in the southwestern corner of the country, close to the border with Burkina Faso. Thus, even in the unlikely case that none of its neighbors intervene, Niger is still left with a comfortable window of opportunity to resist the invasion. This could end in a disaster for France, as yet another military defeat in the area would inevitably lead to a complete collapse of the neocolonial system it left in place in the 1960s. On the other hand, if Paris doesn’t intervene, this will happen anyway, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Either way, the dilemma inevitably results in a geopolitical catch-22, as leaving things as they are could also encourage others to revolt against Western neocolonialism elsewhere in Africa and possibly beyond.

Explaining China’s & India’s Reported Differences Over Expanding BRICS - China envisages BRICS’ members replacing the dollar with yuan and integrating into BRI, while India wants them to prioritize the use of national currencies and doesn’t want BRICS as a whole officially connected to that global project. Astute observers know that Bloomberg can’t always be trusted, but they might be telling the truth in their latest report about BRICS despite putting an obvious spin on everything. In their piece titled “China’s Push to Expand BRICS Membership Falters”, they cited two unnamed Indian officials who claimed that their country proposed strict criteria for joining BRICS after China allegedly expressed a comparatively more laidback position towards this issue.Before explaining why their report is likely true, it’s important to clarify that this leading Mainstream Media outlet obviously has an interest in framing this disagreement as yet another example of rising Sino-Indo tensions, which is why they titled their article the way they did. The wording is intended to imply that BRICS is led by China and that all other members are its junior partners. The particular content of their piece then conveys the notion that intra-group disputes are endangering its future.The reality is that BRICS could more accurately be conceptualized as a financially focused form of RIC+. The Russia-India-China trilateral serves as its core while Brazil and South Africa function as their top partners outside of Eurasia for accelerating financial multipolarity processes. About their shared goal, this is being pursued through gradual reforms owing to each member’s relationship of complex interdependence with the Western-centric financial system, with Russia being the only exception.The preceding observation accounts for why their reserve currency project probably won’t be launched anytime soon, if ever at all, as well as South Africa capitulating to Western pressure to have President Putin attend the next BRICS Summit online instead of in-person due to his ICC arrest warrant. It also adds context to President of the BRICS Bank Dilma Rousseff’s recent statement confirming that her institution complies with Western sanctions against Russia and thus isn’t planning any new projects there.

Bank of England raises key rate to 5.25 percent –The Bank of England raised its key interest rate by a quarter point on Thursday to the highest since 2008, but shied away from a bigger hike, pointing to a recent decline in inflation that it expects to continue over the rest of the year. The hike takes the Bank Rate to 5.25 percent and is the 14th straight rise in a campaign of monetary policy tightening to head off the worst bout of inflation in 40 years. While it has come down from a peak of over 11 percent, headline inflation was still running at nearly 8 percent in June, nearly four times the level that the Bank defines as price stability. It threatens more pain for those with mortgages and tenants who face sharp increases in their rents as landlords try to pass on the increase in the costs of their own loans. Average two-year U.K. mortgage rates are now nearly 7 percent, according to real estate website Rightmove. The Bank repeated that it remained ready to raise rates further still if inflation pressures prove to be more persistent than currently expected. The risks of that appear finely balanced: U.K. wages are still growing at a rate that the Bank considers 'unsustainable', but there is increasingly clear evidence that the effects of last year's spikes in energy and commodity markets are reversing. Factory gate prices, in particular, have fallen in five of the last seven months and are now effectively flat from a year earlier. Analysts had been split ahead of the meeting on how much the Bank would raise by, with a slim majority expecting a quarter-point hike and a substantial minority expecting a half-point. The pound had hit its lowest in over a month earlier Thursday in advance of the announcement, hurt by general risk-aversion in financial markets since Fitch downgraded the U.S.'s credit rating on Tuesday. That has had the effect of pushing up U.S. and global bond yields, making the dollar relatively more attractive in the short term. By 1305 CET, it was at $1.2637, down 0.65 percent on the day. Traders also pared back peak rate expectations to 5.75 percent.

New Boycott As UK Coffee Giant Celebrates Women Having Breasts Removed --The UK’s biggest Coffee chain Costa is facing massive backlash and a new boycott after it used an animated image featuring a figure with mastectomy scars to celebrate “inclusivity and diversity”. The Daily Mail reports: The image, depicting an androgynous-looking character wearing long shorts with scars below each nipple, is taken from a mural designed by the chain for Brighton and Hove Pride last year.Use of the image on a mobile coffee van used at events around the country was condemned by feminist campaigners and people who had breasts removed due to cancer.Tanya Carter, spokeswoman for child safeguarding campaign group Safe Schools Alliance, said: “It’s almost unbelievable that Costa would do something so crass and irresponsible as to use this image.“The executives clearly have no idea what message this conveys, that irreversible surgery on healthy female breasts is to be applauded. Is this really any way to sell coffee?”Costa, which is owned by Coca Cola, issued a statement defending the use of the image, claiming “At Costa Coffee we celebrate the diversity of our customers, team members and partners. We want everyone that interacts with us to experience the inclusive environment that we create, to encourage people to feel welcomed, free and unashamedly proud to be themselves. The mural, in its entirety, showcases and celebrates inclusivity.” Feminist writer Julie Bindel told the Mail “I remember stories about when a woman was thrown out of a Costa shop (in 2018) because she was discreetly breastfeeding.”