Powell’s Inflation Nightmare: Job Seekers, incl. the Employed, Suddenly Expect Massively Higher Wages in Job Offers by Wolf Richter -- Wages of job offers received by job seekers, and expectations for wages by job seekers surged in July, in another sign that this inflation is making its imprint on the labor market, and it’s not backing off at all, on the contrary, and then the fretting starts that much higher wages will lead to still much higher inflation. The wages that job seekers – not just the unemployed, but also the employed looking for another job – expect to get in their job offers spiked by $7,105, or by 11.8%, from a year ago to $67,400 on average, according to the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) this morning. This portion of the SCE is conducted three times a year, in July, November, and March. It was the biggest spike in job-offer wage expectations in the data of the SCE, which goes back to 2014. Clearly, job seekers feel encouraged – and it’s pedal to the metal for their wage expectations:Employers, still struggling to find qualified employees, seem to play along in order to hire people. The average full-time wage of job offers that job seekers actually received spiked by $8,711 year over year, or by 14%, to a record $69,500 in July, according to the SCE.The lowest wages that job seekers would be willing to accept to take a new job – the average reservation wage – jumped by 7.9% year-over-year, to $78,600.These are massive increases in what job seekers expect, and what they were offered. And it comes amid the still unfolding scenario of unions pushing for much higher wages, and not shying away from labor action to underscore their demands. Minimum wages in states, counties, and cities that have them have also been raised, in some cases substantially. So in July, actual average hourly earnings by “production and non-supervisory employees” – the bulk of total employment – accelerated sharply, rising by 0.45% from June, the biggest month-to-month increase since November, amounting to a 5.5% increase annualized. This is based on surveys of employers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that we discussed earlier in August. Inflation has a variety of factors that push it forward – including those related to mass psychology, what I call the inflationary mindset by businesses and consumers that keeps propagating price increases. How these factors all interplay is still badly understood, amazingly, and because they’re badly understood, we get these constant “surprises” dished up by inflation. One aspect of these inflation drivers is a surge in wages without matching productivity increases. This makes inflation watchers nervous – they’re fretting about another “wage-price spiral.” In the past, wage-price spirals have turned out to be painful and difficult to get under control. Powell, in his press conferences, keeps pointing at wage growth as a factor in services inflation, which is raging at 6.2%, as service providers pass on higher labor costs.
White House Tells Ukraine That Congress Will Back More War Spending - National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Tuesday that the US has expressed to Ukraine and European allies that Congress will back the new spending on the war in Ukraine that President Biden has requested despite “dissonant” voices among Republicans.An ambassador from an unnamed European country confirmed to Axiosthat his government had received that message from the US in recent days. Sullivan noted in his comments that there are still “strong” voices “in key leadership positions” in the Republican Party in Congress who favor continuing to fund the proxy war against Russia.A House GOP leadership aide told Axios that the new Ukraine spending would likely pass if brought to a vote, but House Speaker Kevin McCarthy might have difficulty bringing it to a floor for a vote due to growing opposition. “I just don’t see that support in the House [Republican] conference right now … We are well beyond just the Freedom Caucus talking about this,” the aide said. Last week, Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD), co-chair of the congressional Ukraine Caucus, said he would not support new spending on the war in Ukraine that included anything other than military aid and didn’t establish an inspector general. He also said the counteroffensive “failed” and called for the US to push Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to pursue peace talks. Harris is also a member of the Freedom Caucus but has been a staunch supporter of the war until now. President Biden requested an additional $24 billion in the new Ukraine package, which would bring total spending on the war to about $137 billion if authorized. Biden’s request came after a CNN poll found 55% of Americans are opposed to Congress authorizing more spending on the conflict.
US citizens urged to leave Belarus immediately — The Biden administration is urging U.S. citizens in Belarus to depart the country immediately and warned against travel there in a statement published Monday. The updated travel warning comes after bordering countries Lithuania, Latvia and Poland have stepped up security along the border over concerns about Russian Wagner mercenary forces exiled in the country. The State Department, in its warning, encouraged Americans still in Belarus to depart the country immediately and categorized the country as a Level 4 risk, the highest security warning. Belarus’s longtime leader Alexander Lukashenko, known as Europe’s last dictator, has been a key facilitator of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, and is under a catalog of U.S. sanctions for human rights abuses and political repression against Belarusian people who challenged his claim to election victory in 2020. The U.S. mission in Belarus is scaled down and only handles emergency American Citizen Services. Lukashenko’s welcoming of Wagner forces in a deal with Putin that ended the mercenary group’s short-lived rebellion against the Kremlin has raised concern in NATO-member countries on its border. “Do not travel to Belarus due to Belarusian authorities’ continued facilitation of Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine, the buildup of Russian military forces in Belarus, the arbitrary enforcement of local laws, the potential of civil unrest, the risk of detention, and the Embassy’s limited ability to assist U.S. citizens residing in or traveling to Belarus,” the State Department wrote in its warning.
US and Iran reach agreement amid escalating pressure, tensions and threats - The US has agreed an informal and limited deal with Iran over its nuclear programme in a bid to stymie growing relations between Tehran and Moscow, as Washington prepares to escalate the war in Ukraine against Russia. Following more than a year of indirect talks, Iran’s clerical bourgeois nationalist regime has apparently agreed not to process uranium beyond the 60 percent level, to release several jailed Iranian-American dual nationals, to stop attacks on American forces by its regional allies, and to not transfer ballistic missiles to Russia. In return, the US has agreed not to tighten sanctions, seize oil tankers or seek punitive resolutions against Iran at the United Nations or the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It has also agreed to the unfreezing of some Iranian assets in third countries for non-sanctionable activities, including food and medicine imports. The details are sketchy, with the Biden administration refusing to comment or confirm the arrangements, which do not constitute a formal written accord. In part at least, this is to avoid triggering the 2015 US Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, which requires any nuclear agreement reached with Tehran to be approved by Congress, which is openly hostile to any such deal. The Republican Party has lashed out at the news, with former Vice President Mike Pence, who is running for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, calling the deal “the largest ransom payment in American history to the Mullahs in Tehran.” In the last week, Iran has transferred four Iranian-Americans imprisoned in Tehran’s Evin Prison to house arrest, including Siamak Namazi, Emad Sharghi and Morad Tahbaz, jailed on charges of spying, and two other unnamed Americans, one a scientist and the other a businessman, one of whom had already been released to house arrest. They will be allowed to return to the US once $6 billion of Iran’s frozen oil revenues in South Korea and $4 billion in Iraq have been transferred via the central bank in Qatar to Iran. The cash will provide a crucial lifeline for President Ebrahim Raisi’s regime, which is struggling with a $10 billion budget deficit, although it can only be spent on food and medicine. According to Iran’s state news agency, IRNA, the US will then release five Iranians held in American prisons. A report in The Wall Street Journal last week said that Tehran had decided to lower the quantity of enriched uranium it possesses and dilute some of the uranium already enriched back to 60 percent—far higher than that agreed under the 2015 nuclear accord that the Trump administration unilaterally abandoned in 2018--while slowing the enrichment process. This may indicate that Tehran is prepared to come to a broader agreement with Washington and the European powers. Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, speaking at a televised news conference, said Tehran was committed to resolving its nuclear dispute with world powers through diplomacy, saying, “We have always wanted a return of all parties to full compliance of the 2015 nuclear deal.” These developments come after the US ramped up the pressure on Iran, even as Washington’s allies in the Gulf have normalized relations with Tehran. Saudi Arabia has reopened its embassy in Tehran, while Amir-Abdollahian has held talks with his counterpart in Riyadh.
Rename The Secretary Of State The Secretary Of Hypocrisy – Caitlin Johnstone - US Secretary of State Tony Blinken tweeted in celebration of Pakistan’s preparations for “free and fair elections” on Wednesday, a week after it was revealed that the US pressured Pakistan to oust its popular democratically elected prime minister Imran Khan last year.“Congratulations to new Pakistan Interim Prime Minister @anwaar_kakar,” tweetedBlinken. “As Pakistan prepares for free and fair elections, in accordance with its constitution and the rights to freedom of speech and assembly, we will continue to advance our shared commitment to economic prosperity.”An article published by The Intercept last week titled “Secret Pakistan Cable Documents U.S. Pressure to Remove Imran Khan” revealed evidence that the US State Department which Blinken heads had placed pressure on the Pakistani government to remove Khan from office in March of last year. A leaked document reports that State Department official Donald Lu issued blatant threats to Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States that “it will be tough going ahead” for Pakistan if Khan wasn’t ousted but “all will be forgiven” if he was, saying the US and its European allies didn’t like the prime minister’s “aggressively neutral position” on the Ukraine war. The following month Khan was ousted in a no-confidence vote, and he now sits in prison, officially barred from politics for five years. The authenticity of the document has been begrudgingly confirmed by Pakistani officials opposed to Khan, yet prior to its publication by The Intercept the US State Department had denied what was revealed by its contents on multiple occasions. Last month State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said unequivocally that “the United States does not have a position on one political candidate or party versus another in Pakistan or any other country,” which is plainly contradicted by the revelations in the document.Obviously if you’ve got officials from the world’s most powerful, violent and destructive government telling your country “it will be tough going ahead” if its prime minister is not removed from power but “all will be forgiven” if he is, that’s brazen interference in the democratic processes of that nation. Yet here is the head of the State Department babbling about the wonderful “free and fair elections” in Pakistan.Earlier this month the State Department put out another doozy on Twitter (or whatever we’re calling it now), quoting Blinken saying “Governments that violate human rights are almost always the same ones that flout other key parts of that order — such as invading, coercing, and threatening other countries, or breaking trade rules.” All of which the US government of course does regularly.
How Geopolitics Is Complicating the Move to Clean Energy - The New York Times - The fate of Indonesia’s unrivaled stocks of nickel — a critical mineral used to make batteries for electric vehicles — is caught in the conflict between the United States and China. He is known as the Minister for Everything. From the government offices of Indonesia’s capital to dusty mines on remote islands, Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan commands authority as the nation’s essential power broker. A four-star general turned business magnate turned cabinet officer, Mr. Luhut aspires to transform Indonesia into a hub for the production of electric vehicles. But as he pursues that paramount goal, he and his country are increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical forces beyond their control. Though this archipelago nation has long sidestepped entanglements in ideological rivalries, it is increasingly caught in the conflict between the United States and China. At stake is control over nickel, a mineral used to make batteries for electric cars and motorcycles — a central component of the mission to limit the ravages of climate change.Indonesia boasts the earth’s largest reserves, making it something like the Saudi Arabia of nickel. But harvesting and refining those stocks is largely dependent on investment and technology from Chinese companies. And that has limited Indonesia’s access to the United States. In Washington, the Biden administration has proffered tens of billions of dollars in tax credits to spur electric vehicle manufacturing. To qualify, cars sold in the United States must include an increasing share of parts and materials produced either in domestic factories or in countries deemed friendly to American interests. In recent months, Mr. Luhut — formally Indonesia’s coordinating minister for maritime affairs and investment — has implored the Biden administration for a trade deal covering minerals in an effort to secure his country status as a friendly country. That would generate greater demand for its nickel by making it eligible for the American tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. Companies around the globe would presumably gain incentive to erect smelters and electric vehicle factories in Indonesia, enhancing the nation’s technological prowess, and creating jobs.
The US and China must unite to fight the climate crisis, not each other | Bernie Sanders -- Climate change is a global crisis and cannot be solved by any one country alone. If the United States, China and other industrialized countries do not come together to dramatically decrease greenhouse gas emissions, the world we leave our children and future generations will become increasingly unhealthy and uninhabitable. Tragically, the cooperation required to address this existential threat is being undermined by hawks in both the United States and China who are moving us toward a disastrous cold war. Now is the time for a radical rethinking of geopolitics to reflect the reality that international cooperation is not only in the best interests of all countries, but is absolutely necessary for the survival of the planet. Here’s the reality. The last eight years have been the eight hottest on record. This year is on track to be the hottest year in recorded history, and this past July was the hottest month on record. Across the United States, July broke more than 3,200 daily temperature records and dozens of American cities broke or tied their previous daily temperature records three or more times. Phoenix experienced 31 days in a row at or above 110F (43.3C), 13 days longer than the previous record. El Paso, Miami, Austin and many other places also suffered under record-breaking stretches of extreme heat. Smoke from unprecedented wildfires in Canada enveloped US cities and drifted halfway around the world, causing dangerously unhealthy air quality. Vermont, my home state, experienced floods that damaged 4,000 homes and 800 businesses, the state’s worst natural disaster since 1927. In Maui, Hawaii, rapidly moving fires destroyed 2,700 structures in historic Lahaina and took more than 100 lives, making it the deadliest wildfire in the US in more than a century. But it’s not just the US that is dealing with record-breaking heatwaves and enormous climate-caused devastation. China experienced record-high temperatures last month, including the country’s all-time temperature record of 126F (52.2C), and recent flooding has killed about 100 people, destroyed nearly 200,000 homes, displaced some 1.5 million people and caused more than $13bn in damage. From Tokyo to Rome to Tunis to Tirana, cities across Asia, Europe and north Africa experienced their hottest days on record. In Iran, the heat index hit 158F (70C), testing the limits of human survival. In our own hemisphere, Cuba, the Dominican Republic and El Salvador all saw temperature records fall. It’s winter right now in South America, but that hasn’t stopped temperatures from exceeding 100F (37.7C) in some places, a heating event a climate historian labeled “one of the extreme events the world has ever seen”. And it’s not just that temperatures have been soaring on land. Our oceans have never been warmer. Right now, 44% of the world’s oceans are experiencing a marine heatwave. The Mediterranean Sea is experiencing its hottest temperatures on record, more than 9F hotter than average in some places. Off the coast of Newfoundland, waters are as much as 18F above normal. South of Miami, waters reached 101F (38.3C). You’re supposed to find temperatures like that in a hot tub, not the ocean. This warming could further devastate coral reefs, fisheries and marine ecosystems around the world.
Chaos Erupts When Republican Candidates Are Asked if They Believe in Climate Change - The New York Times - It was an unusual litmus test for a Republican primary debate, one that quickly descended into personal attacks and obfuscation: The candidates were asked whether humans had contributed to climate change. There is no scientific dispute that the answer is yes, but hardly any of the Republican candidates gave a straight answer. Before they could raise their hands, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida broke in. “Look, we’re not schoolchildren,” he said, rejecting the idea of a show-of-hands response. “Let’s have the debate.” The line of questioning from the moderators, Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum, was about the devastating wildfires in Maui and a recent tropical storm that caused flooding in Southern California. They mentioned rising ocean temperatures and played a clip from a young conservative, who asked how the Republicans running for president could assuage young people’s concerns about climate change. Mr. DeSantis, a distant second in the polls to former President Donald J. Trump, who skipped the debate, deflected and criticized President Biden’s response to the wildfires in Hawaii. Vivek Ramaswamy, the millionaire entrepreneur whose campaign has dabbled in conspiracy theories, seized on the moment to deny the scientific consensus on climate change. “Let us be honest as Republicans — I’m the only person on the stage who isn’t bought and paid for, so I can say this — the climate change agenda is a hoax,” he said. Mr. Ramaswamy added, “And so the reality is more people are dying of bad climate change policies than they are of actual climate change.” Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor, admonished Mr. Ramaswamy, whom he sparred with frequently throughout the night. “I’ve had enough already tonight of a guy who sounds like ChatGPT,” Mr. Christie said, referring to the artificial intelligence chatbot. He then compared Mr. Ramaswamy’s frequent mentions of his skinny frame and his “odd” last name to the rhetoric former President Barack Obama used when he first vaulted onto the national political stage. “And I’m afraid we’re dealing with the same type of amateur,” he said.
‘Drill, frack, burn coal’: Republicans echo Trump at presidential debate - Former President Donald Trump might not have been at Wednesday’s Republican presidential debate, but his energy policy and rejection of climate science took center stage.Trump’s push for energy dominance cast a long shadow over the eight candidates onstage in Wisconsin, and all promised to essentially follow in his footsteps if they can overcome his massive polling advantage to win the nomination next year.“This isn’t that complicated guys, unlock American energy, drill, frack, burn coal, embrace nuclear,” technology entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy said.The debate showed that, while the candidates aim to differentiate themselves from the front-runner, none are seizing on climate policy or support for renewable energy manufacturing and jobs as a way to stand out.“We’re going to open up all energy production, we’re going to be energy dominant in this country,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said in the first minutes of the debate, echoing a familiar Trump line.Energy policy is one of theprimary areas of agreement for the Republican candidates. They have all called for a massive increase in domestic oil and gas production and a shift away from President Joe Biden’s aggressive clean energy push. The candidates have universally criticized Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, and some have promised to repeal the climate law or slow its implementation if Congress won’t go along.Candidates also pushed for a slowdown in clean energy by claiming it only helps China, a regular talking point on Capitol Hill.“These green subsidies that Biden has put in, all he’s done is help China because he doesn’t understand,” former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley said, adding, “Half of the batteries for electric vehicles are made in China, so that’s not helping the environment, you’re putting money in China’s pocket.” Wednesday’s debate was hosted by Fox News, which frequently promotes climate disinformation to its large cable audience. Fox hosts have routinely rejected climate science and frequently host on their programs climate deniers who claim that recent heat waves, drought and extreme storms have no connection to human-caused climate change.
Joe Manchin is furious over the Inflation Reduction Act he helped write - White House is torn over Joe Manchin’s fury at climate law he crafted - The obscure federal agency that oversees the nation’s immense tangle of pipelines, power lines and transfer stations is unfamiliar to most Americans. But it has very much been on Sen. Joe Manchin III’s mind. By the end of last year, the West Virginia Democrat had become deeply displeased with how the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission was helping the Biden administration advance its aggressive climate goals. Manchin, a staunch ally of fossil fuel interests, was particularly critical of the agency’s efforts to write regulations that more fully consider climate impact when it reviews new natural gas infrastructure. So he kneecapped the agency. The chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Manchin refused to hold a confirmation hearing for the reappointment of Richard Glick, the agency’s chair and a key ally of President Biden, after Glick’s term expired at the end of the year. That has effectively stripped the board of its Democratic majority, leaving it deadlocked and limiting its ability to advance renewable energy projects.Manchin isn’t the essential tiebreaking vote for Democrats in the Senate anymore, but a year after the enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act — which wouldn’t have passed without his support — he’s irate at the way Biden is implementing the law. And he’s fighting back: Besides his pressure on FERC, Manchin has vowed to oppose appointments to the Environmental Protection Agency and the Interior Department. He is even publicly flirting with running for president in 2024, an unlikely prospect but one that could be devastating for Biden — and a situation that senior White House officials are closely monitoring. “I’m so absolutely in disagreement with how they’re trying to promote an energy policy. … It’s just not all about, ‘All green and clean,’” Manchin said on a West Virginia radio show earlier this month. “I’m in disagreement continuously with them.” Now Biden and his aides are in the delicate position of trying to agree to Manchin’s demands where they can to avoid antagonizing him more, while still advancing a climate agenda that the senator strongly opposes — even though his vote last year made it possible in the first place.
Additional Selections for Funding Opportunity Announcement 2400: Clean Hydrogen Production, Storage, Transport and Utilization to Enable a Net-Zero Carbon Economy (Round 3) | Department of Energy -- www.energy.gov -- details on where some of the so-called green money is going
New data show that state and local governments still have not spent a majority of American Rescue Plan funds - Economic Policy Institute, - The U.S. Department of the Treasury has released new data on how state and local governments are spending the $350 billion of State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds (SLFRF) allocated by the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), covering expenditures through March 31, 2023. Less than half of the money has been spent: States have spent 45% of the $195 billion they were allocated and local governments have spent 38%, both slight increases from the previous quarter. However, these data do not include most spending decisions made during spring state legislative sessions, which may change the situation somewhat.Fiscal recovery funds can be used for myriad purposes related to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impacts. While the official pandemic state of emergency has come to a close, the economy and public services are still dealing with the negative economic impacts, including a loss of public-sector jobs. We find that the 10 states that have spent the least amount of their fiscal recovery funds have state job vacancies twice as high as the 10 states that have spent the most. Governments should prioritize rebuilding public services and filling state and local government job vacancies with their remaining funds. Fiscal recovery funds must be obligated (designated for specific uses) by December 31, 2024, and must be spent by December 31, 2026. Governments have used these funds in many innovative, equity-enhancing ways. One of the clearest needs now, though, is rebuilding the public sector. While the private-sector recovery is strong—with employment 3.1% above pre-pandemic levels and a record-high 24 states with unemployment rates at or below 3%—state and local government employment is still 160,000 jobs below what it was before the pandemic started. This comes after a decade of public-sector disinvestment in the name of austerity following the Great Recession.The shortfall in state and local government jobs is driven in large part by the inadequate wages paid to public-sector workers. One-third of state and local government workers are paid less than $20 an hour, and 15% are paid less than $15 an hour. While the public sector has smaller Black-white and Hispanic-white pay gaps than the private sector, Black and Hispanic employees are still disproportionately represented among the lowest-paid jobs, which also employ a disproportionate share of women workers. Meanwhile, the teacher pay penalty has hit a new high: Teachers are now paid 23.5% less than comparable college-educated, nonteaching peers. State governments are reporting increasing difficulties in filling vacancies. SLFRF dollars can be used to raise public-sector pay, create hiring and retention incentives, and expand benefits to attract public employees. Given the importance of a strong public sector to the overall health of the economy, filling these vacancies should be a high priority. There is a strong correlation between how much SLFRF dollars a state has spent and state government employment. The 10 states that have spent the least have a state government jobs deficit twice as high as the 10 states that have spent the most. This means that where the need is greatest, the funds are available, and policymakers should make filling job vacancies a priority.
DOJ charges 371 people, launches new COVID fraud strike forces -The Department of Justice (DOJ) announced Wednesday the launch of two new COVID-19 fraud strike forces, as 371 people were charged over offenses in connection to the alleged theft of more than $800 million in coronavirus aid. Out of the 371 defendants charged with pandemic-related fraud, 119 of them either pleaded guilty or were convicted at trial, according a DOJ press release. Authorities also said that more than $57 million in court-ordered restitution was imposed, and 117 civil matters occurred during the federal sweep, with more than $10.4 million in judgments. Federal prosecutors also worked with law enforcement authorities to secure forfeiture of more than $231.4 million, the DOJ said. “The Justice Department has now seized over $1.4 billion in COVID-19 relief funds that criminals had stolen and charged over 3,000 defendants with crimes in federal districts across the country,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement. “This latest action, involving over 300 defendants and over $830 million in alleged COVID-19 fraud, should send a clear message: the COVID-19 public health emergency may have ended, but the Justice Department’s work to identify and prosecute those who stole pandemic relief funds is far from over.”
While Medicaid’s enrollment purge plows on . . . by Bill Haskell - A few weeks ago, I critiqued the inequities that would inevitably result from a bare-bones universal insurance plan offered by two economists, which I dubbed it “Medicare-for-all lite.” There was one part of their plan that merits serious consideration: Automatic enrollment for everyone in some form of health insurance.The idea isn’t new. But it is particularly relevant now because state Medicaid agencies across the country are purging their rolls of people who no longer qualify, either because their incomes have risen or they failed to fill out the proper paperwork. Medicaid’s annual re-enrollment process, which must be initiated by beneficiaries, was put on hold during the pandemic.Re-enrollment resumed with the end of the medical emergency earlier this year. At least four million of the 94 million people on Medicaid have already been dropped from the program. The number could grow to 17 million by the end of the year, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. Most will lose coverage because of paperwork snafus, not because their households surpassed the income guidelines.Many state governments failed to gear up for the task. The Associated Press reported this week that the federal government has issued warnings to a third of state agencies whose call centers have been overwhelmed by desperate beneficiaries trying to re-enroll. Many people hung up after waiting for 45 minutes or more. How many of the working poor who rely on Medicaid because their employers do not provide coverage have an extra hour during the workday to stay on hold?As things stand now, we have automatic enrollment in just one part of the nation’s fragmented insurance system. Everyone must sign up for Medicare when they turn 65. Once you’re on, you never get thrown off.Private insurance, either through employer-sponsored or group plans or individual plans sold on the exchanges, is almost entirely voluntary. Fully one-third of people offered health insurance at their place of work refuse to sign up for plans, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.The individual mandate in the Affordable Care Act was eliminated in the 2017 Trump/Republican tax bill. Only five states and the District of Columbia subsequently enacted their own individual insurance mandates.State-run Medicaid plans, which collectively are the nation’s largest insurer, are limited to the poor. Program beneficiaries must apply annually for coverage. Even before this year’s program purge, more than a quarter of the 28 million uninsured Americans who were eligible for Medicaid never applied. Another 37% of the uninsured were eligible for subsidies on the exchanges, but still decided not to buy insurance.In other words, even under the U.S.’s existing fragmented system, near universal coverage could be achieved if everyone signed up for plans for which they are already eligible. Why haven’t people signed up? The uninsured cite cost as the number one reason for failing to enroll.
Families sue Florida after being kicked off Medicaid during state ‘unwinding’ - A pair of consumer advocacy groups filed a lawsuit Tuesday alleging Florida is ending people’s Medicaid coverage without proper notice. The groups are representing a mother and her two-year-old with cystic fibrosis living in Jacksonville, and a one-year-old in Miami. The lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court in Jacksonville, claims the child with cystic fibrosis missed weeks of medication after the entire family was removed from Medicaid. The child in Miami missed a routine vaccination appointment after the doctor’s office called the day before to tell her mother she was uninsured. The filing asks a federal court for a permanent injunction to require the state to stop terminating Medicaid for enrollees in Florida until “adequate notice and an opportunity for a pre-termination fair hearing has been provided.”The Florida Health Justice Project and the National Health Law Program said they believe this is the first lawsuit to challenge a state for improperly removing people from Medicaid since states began the “unwinding” process in April.Federal legislation passed during the pandemic gave states extra money for Medicaid, but only if they kept people continuously enrolled in the program.Before the pandemic, people churned in and out of Medicaid for various reasons. Participants lost their coverage if they earned too much or didn’t provide the information needed to verify their income or residency.But during the public health emergency period, income changes or missed paperwork didn’t matter. If someone was enrolled in Medicaid in March 2020, or if they became eligible at any point during the pandemic, they remained eligible the entire time.As a result, Medicaid enrollment grew more than 30 percent and covered more than 90 million people. But Congress ended those protections, and states have been able to reassess eligibility and kick people off Medicaid rolls since April. Nationwide, more than 5.2 million people have been disenrolled across 45 states and the District of Columbia, according to health policy research group KFF, which is tracking state disclosures. According to KFF, Florida has disenrolled more than 400,000 people, mostly children and low-income parents, because the state has not expanded Medicaid.More than half of those had their coverage terminated for “procedural reasons,” meaning missing or incorrect paperwork, or when the state has outdated contact information. The lawsuit describes dense and confusing notices sent to both families that were multiple pages long and contained conflicting information. It alleges the plaintiffs did not understand why they were losing coverage, and were not aware of any appeal options or other coverage opportunities.
The Moment of Truth Arrives for Mexico’s Anti-GM Corn Laws -- Following months of failed negotiations, the U.S. government has escalated its food fight with Mexico by calling for the formation of a dispute settlement panel under the USMCA North American trade deal. The cause of the dispute is a decree passed by Mexico’s government that seeks to prohibit the use of genetically modified (GM) yellow corn for human use. Its reasons for doing so include protecting the health of the population, the environment and Mexico’s genetic diversity of maize.The U.S. Trade Representatives Office, or USTR, argues that Mexico’s restrictions on GM corn imports are not only not based on “science” but “they undermine the market access [Mexico’s government] agreed to provide in the USMCA.”Mexico is the birthplace of corn as well as the world’s richest repository of corn varieties. But it is also the second largest buyer of US-grown GM yellow corn, which is used almost exclusively for animal feed. This is thanks largely to NAFTA, which eliminated the Mexican government’s protection mechanisms for Mexican farmers while preserving U.S. corn subsidies for US farmers.The largest buyer, China, is also trying to wean itself off US corn, partly by buying from other major suppliers, such as Brazil and Argentina, but also by expanding its own cultivation of yellow maize. It has its own set of reasons for wanting to do so, including its ever escalating trade war with the US. If Mexico were to do the same, as it is trying to, US corn growers could have serious difficulty finding replacement markets, with big knock-on effects for Big Ag, biotech firms and the four of five US states that depend heavily on the corn industry.This is a battle that has been raging since at least 2002, when transgenic traits were found in native maize varieties in the southeastern state of Oaxaca. As Timothy A Wise, a senior research fellow at Tufts University’s Global Development and Environment Institute and a senior advisor at the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy (IATP), recounts in chapter 7 of his book, Eating Tomorrow, “Not only had the transgene migrated on the wind, through maize’s open pollination, it had done so despite a nationwide ban on the planting of transgenic maize.” Since then the world’s biggest GM seeds company have been trying to get official approval for the experimental and commercial planting of GM crops, including maize, in Mexican soil. In 2005, they finally got what they wanted when the Vicente Fox government lifted a seven-year moratorium on the cultivation of GM crops in Mexico. For the first time ever, GM maize could be planted in the country, but only in areas that were not considered “centres of origin for the crop.” This stipulation would later become pivotal when new scientific research revealed that more or less all of Mexico, including the fields earmarked for GM crop trials in the northern borderlands, were centres of origin for maize.
Georgia court sets bond and restrictive release terms for Trump -- Ex-president Donald Trump agreed Monday to post a $200,000 bond and observe restrictive conditions on his public statements and communications about the criminal case stemming from his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in the state of Georgia. Trump faces 13 felony counts, including racketeering, criminal conspiracy, criminal solicitation, filing false documents and making false statements. Three Trump lawyers met with officials of the Fulton County district attorney’s office later Monday, to discuss the circumstances of his booking on the charges, which is now expected to take place on Thursday. District Attorney Fani Willis has set a Friday noon deadline for each of the 19 people indicted in the case to post bond and turn themselves in. Trump himself announced the Thursday booking, in a posting Monday night on his social media platform, Truth Social. “Can you believe it? I’ll be going to Atlanta, Georgia, on Thursday to be ARRESTED by a Radical Left District Attorney, Fani Willis,” he wrote. The booking will take place at the county jail. The Fulton County sheriff’s office issued a news release saying that when Trump turns himself in, “there will be a hard lockdown of the area surrounding the Rice Street Jail.” So far, in addition to Trump, four other co-defendants have reached bond agreements. Two lawyers for the Trump 2020 campaign, John Eastman and Kenneth Chesebro, must post a $100,000 bond, a third lawyer, Ray Smith, faces a bond of $50,000 and Scott Hall, himself a bail bondsman, must post $10,000. The “consent bond order” for Trump was signed off on by Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee and co-signed by Willis and Trump’s attorneys. It declares, “The Defendant shall perform no act to intimidate any person known to him or her to be a codefendant or witness in this case or to otherwise obstruct the administration of justice.” The order goes on to say: “Defendant shall make no direct or indirect threat of any nature against the community or to any property in the community; The above shall include, but are not limited to, posts on social media or reposts of posts made by another individual on social media.” Trump is explicitly forbidden to use social media to target any of his 18 co-defendants, the 30 unindicted co-conspirators, or any witnesses in the upcoming trial. None of the other four with bond orders issued Monday is barred from statements on social media.
Trump attorney Jenna Ellis asks why MAGA PAC isn’t paying for her Georgia defense Trump-aligned attorney Jenna Ellis, one of the 18 co-defendants in the former president’s Georgia 2020 election interference trial, publicly questioned Monday why the super PAC MAGA Inc. is not paying for her defense. “I was reliably informed Trump isn’t funding any of us who are indicted,” Ellis wrote in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. “Would this change if he becomes the nominee? Why then, not now? I totally agree this has become a bigger principle than just one man. So why isn’t MAGA, Inc. funding everyone’s defense?”Ellis was responding to a separate post from Matt Schlapp, the chairman of the American Conservative Union, who wrote, “The sooner we unify behind a nominee that sooner we can use recourses to fund the defense of everyone indicted for being a Trump Republican.”Ellis faces two charges in Georgia over her part in former President Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election: racketeering, which every defendant in the case is charged with, and socializing a public officer to violate their oath in connection with her attendance at a Dec. 3 Georgia Senate Judiciary Subcommittee hearing. Earlier this year, she admitted in court to making false statements about the 2020 presidential election, leading a judge to issue a public censure.“The parties agree that Respondent, through her conduct, undermined the American public’s confidence in the presidential election, violating her duty of candor to the public,” Bryon Large, Colorado’s presiding disciplinary judge, wrote in his opinion in March.
The Constitution bars Trump from holding public office ever again - While some on the right portray accountability for the Jan. 6 Capitol riot as just another partisan dispute, two prominent conservative legal scholars have made the case that the Constitution disqualifies former President Trump from public office. Last week, law professors William Baude of the University of Chicago and Michael Stokes Paulsen of the University of St. Thomas — both members of the conservative Federalist Society — argued in a law review article that Trump is already constitutionally forbidden from serving in public office because of Section Three of the 14th Amendment. This section, also known as the Disqualification Clause, bars from office any government officer who takes an oath to defend the Constitution and then engages in or aids an insurrection against the United States. Only a two-thirds majority of both houses of Congress can act to remove such disability.It should not come as a surprise that Trump meets this standard. All three branches of the government have identified the attack on the Capitol as an insurrection, with multiple federal judges, bipartisan majorities in the House and Senate, as well as the bipartisan Jan. 6 House select committee, citing Trump as its central cause.As Baude and Paulsen note, “Section Three requires no prior criminal-law conviction, for treason or any other defined crime, as a prerequisite for its disqualification to apply.” Trump’s indictment by special counsel Jack Smith for election-related crimes only further bolsters the case for his constitutional disqualification. Those federal criminal charges include conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights by attempting to “oppress, threaten or intimidate” people in their free exercise and enjoyment of their right to vote. Although Trump’s role in fomenting the attack on the Capitol has been well documented, Baude and Paulsen argue that the “full legal consequences” of Section Three “have not been appreciated or enforced.” As they explain, the Disqualification Clause is “an enforceable part of the Constitution, not limited to the Civil War, and not effectively repealed by nineteenth century amnesty legislation.” The provision is also “self-executing … without the need for additional action by Congress.” As the professors note, Section Three “can and should be enforced by every official, state or federal, who judges qualifications.” In their article, Baude and Paulsen explain that “to the extent of any conflict with prior constitutional rules, Section Three repeals, supersedes, or simply satisfies them,” including “the free speech principles of the First Amendment.”Most importantly, the authors conclude that Section Three covers a “broad range of conduct against the authority of the constitutional order” and “a broad range of former offices, including the presidency.” They state explicitly that Section Three “disqualifies former President Donald Trump, and potentially many others, because of their participation in the attempted overthrow of the 2020 presidential election.”
The disqualification of Donald Trump and other legal urban legends Jonathan Turley - The popularity of urban legends is a testament to the will to believe. Constitutional urban legends often have an immediate appeal and tend to arise out of the desperation of divided times. One of the most popular today is that former President Donald Trump can be barred from office, even if he is not convicted in any of the four indictments he faces, under a long-dormant clause of the 14th Amendment. This 14th Amendment theory is something that good liberals will read to their children at night.It goes something like this: Donald Trump can never be president again, because the 14th Amendment bars those who previously took federal oaths from assuming office if they engaged in insurrection or rebellion. With that, and a kiss on the forehead, a progressive’s child can sleep peacefully through the night.But don’t look under the bed. For as scary as it might sound to some, Trump can indeed take office if he is elected…even if he is convicted. Indeed, he can serve as president even in the unlikely scenario that he is sentenced to jail.Democrats have long pushed this theory about the 14th Amendment as a way of disqualifying not only Trump but also dozens of Republican members of Congress. From some, it is the ultimate Hail Mary pass if four indictments, roughly 100 criminal charges and more than a dozen opposing candidates fail to get the job done.I have strongly rejected this interpretation for years, so it is too late to pretend that I view this as a plausible argument. However, some serious and smart people take an equally strong position in support of the theory. Indeed, conservative scholars William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen have argued for the interpretation and insist in a recent law review article that “the case is not even close. All who are committed to the Constitution should take note and say so.” Despite my respect for these academics, I simply fail to see how the text, history or purpose of the 14th Amendment even remotely favors this view. Despite the extensive research of Baude and Paulsen, their analysis ends where it began: Was January 6 an insurrection or rebellion? I have previously addressed the constitutional basis for this claim. It is, in my view, wildly out of sync with the purpose of the amendment, which followed an actual rebellion, the Civil War. Democrats have previously sought to block certification of Republican presidents and Democratic lawyers have challenged elections, including on totally unsupported claims of machines flipping the results. If we are to suddenly convert the 14th Amendment into a running barrier to those who seek to challenge election results, then we have to establish a bright line to distinguish such cases. The 14th Amendment bars those who took the oath and then “engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same.” It then adds that that disqualification can extend to those who have “given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.” According to these experts, Jan. 6 was an “insurrection” and Trump gave “aid and comfort” to those who engaged in it by spreading election fraud claims and not immediately denouncing the violence. But even the view that it was an “insurrection” is by no means a consensus. Polls have shown that most of the public view Jan. 6 for what it was: a protest that became a riot. One year after the riot, CBS News mostly downplayed and ignored the result of its own poll showing that 76 percent viewed it for what it was, as a “protest gone too far.” The view that it was an actual “insurrection” was far less settled, with almost half rejecting the claim, a division breaking along partisan lines.
Sam Bankman-Fried isn't getting his Adderall and is surviving on 'bread and water,' lawyers say - In a hearing in New York on Tuesday, lawyers for FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried expressed concerns over their client’s living conditions at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center, where he’s being housed for alleged witness tampering. Bankman-Fried’s legal team told a federal judge that the former crypto billionaire was “subsisting on bread and water” and “sometimes peanut butter,” because the jail can’t accommodate his vegan diet. They said he had only been offered the standard “flesh meals.” Mark Cohen, an attorney on the case, added that Bankman-Fried had not received any doses of his prescribed medication Adderall, a treatment for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, since being remanded to custody 11 days ago. Cohen said his client only had a “limited” and “dwindling” supply of Emsam, a transdermal patch for treating depression. U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan, who is presiding over the criminal trial, had told a jail to provide these prescribed medications to Bankman-Fried. The hearing on Tuesday marked Bankman-Fried’s first time in court since he was sent to MDC earlier this month. He is due to be held there until his criminal trial begins in October. Bankman-Fried, donning a beige, jail-issued uniform and ankle shackles, pleaded not guilty to seven charges, including fraud and conspiracy, in a new superseding indictment. He previously pleaded not guilty to more indictments related to the collapse of his crypto empire. An earlier request from Bankman-Fried’s lawyers included a letter from his psychiatrist, George Lerner, who has been treating the former FTX CEO since February 2019. “Mr. Bankman-Fried has a history of Major Depressive Disorder and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder,” Lerner wrote.. Without his medication, Lerner warned, “Bankman-Fried will experience a return of his depression and ADHD symptoms and will be severely negatively impacted in his ability to assist in his own defense.” Magistrate Judge Sarah Netburn said she would look into these issues immediately and aim to have a solution by the end of the day. Christian Everdell, another attorney on Bankman-Fried’s legal team, told Netburn there are “serious Sixth Amendment issues” involving Bankman-Fried not being able to prepare and participate in his defense with only six weeks until trial. Bankman-Fried has thus far been unable to gain access to the internet and a laptop. His lawyers have argued that with their client in jail, he will not be able to properly prepare for his trial due to the mountainous amounts of discovery documents only accessible via a computer connected to the internet. Judge Netburn said the defense would have to make trial preparation requests through Judge Kaplan. On Monday, Judge Kaplan granted Bankman-Fried and his attorneys permission to work out of the courthouse at 500 Pearl Street in Manhattan, New York, immediately following Tuesday’s arraignment. Judge Netburn said she would address concerns over Bankman-Fried’s living conditions directly with the U.S. Justice Department’s Bureau of Prisons, which runs the jail.
New Court Documents Suggest the Justice Department Under Four Presidents Covered Up Jeffrey Epstein’s Money Laundering at JPMorgan Chase By Pam and Russ Martens -- An actual, highly sophisticated, child sex-trafficking ring had been operating with impunity for more than a decade out of the largest bank in the United States, JPMorgan Chase. Based on astonishing internal documents from JPMorgan Chase obtained during discovery in a federal lawsuit and filed on the court docket last week, it now appears that the U.S. Department of Justice has turned a blind eye toward this bank’s facilitation of Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking crimes for more than 16 years, during the administrations of four separate Presidents of the United States. The heavy-lifting for what should have been a criminal investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice in this matter is now being conducted by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the U.S. Virgin Islands in a civil lawsuit, using the law firm, MotleyRice. A new document filed last week with the federal court in Manhattan that is hearing the case shows that on September 6, 2007, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Florida (part of the U.S. Department of Justice) followed up on a subpoena it had issued to Bear Stearns, demanding to receive “a list of accounts at other financial institutions that Bear Stearns has either transferred money to or received money from on behalf of Mr. Epstein….” The peculiar thing about this letter is that a federal law enforcement agency is asking a private bank to help it locate Epstein’s other bank accounts when it has that information easily accessible at two federal databases: the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and the Federal Reserve System which handles the wiring of funds between banks and others. One reason that comes to mind as to why a federal prosecutor would ask a private bank like Bear Stearns to provide outside banking relationships for Jeffrey Epstein, instead of getting that information directly from reliable government databases, is that the prosecutor didn’t want to know or was instructed by higher ups to stand down. This is the same U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Southern District of Florida that had received a deeply investigated case from the Palm Beach County Police Department, documenting that Epstein had sexually assaulted dozens of schoolgirls at his Palm Beach home. Under a secret non-prosecution agreement, this same U.S. Attorney’s Office agreed not to prosecute Epstein or his accomplices for federal crimes. Epstein ended up with a lenient 18-month jail sentence in 2008, which morphed into 13 months, the bulk of which was a work release program where Epstein was driven by his limo driver to an office each day. Because of that abysmal failure by the U.S. Department of Justice, Epstein was able to continue his sexual assaults of underage girls and arrange for his rich pals to do the same, from his release from jail in Palm Beach County in July of 2009 until the Justice Department was shamed by the Miami Herald’s “Perversion of Justice” newspaper series in November of 2018 into arresting Epstein on federal charges of sex trafficking of minors on July 8, 2019. Throughout this period, the largest taxpayer-backstopped, federally-insured bank in the United States, with media darling Jamie Dimon sitting at its helm, was somehow able to engage in more than 9,000 money transactions for Epstein, which “had a combined value of over $2.4 billion,” according to court evidence introduced by the U.S. Virgin Islands. So let this sink in for a moment. The Justice Department’s U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Southern District of Florida was supposedly on a subpoena hunt in September of 2007 to learn the names of any other banks that might be laundering money for Epstein. But, somehow, despite government databases being readily available to provide the name of his most important bank, JPMorgan Chase, Epstein was able to withdraw millions of dollars in hard cash from that bank, unimpeded for years – when any cash withdrawal of $10,000 or more should have blown the whistle on Epstein and stopped his operation. In a January 10, 2011 internal email at JPMorgan Chase, Maryanne Ryan, the Vice President of Anti-Money-Laundering (AML) Operations, reveals that “Steve Cutler” has approved Epstein to remain as a customer at JPMorgan Chase’s Private Bank. Steve (Stephen) Cutler was the former Director of Enforcement at the Securities and Exchange Commission prior to becoming General Counsel at JPMorgan Chase. According to the transcript of the deposition of Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of the bank, as part of the U.S. Virgin Islands’ lawsuit, Cutler worked in the office directly next door to Dimon and reported to Dimon. Dimon also stated in his deposition that he had never heard of Epstein and didn’t know he had accounts at the bank until Epstein’s arrest in 2019. It raises much skepticism on Wall Street that Cutler, who reported to Dimon, would have failed to get permission from Dimon before deciding to keep this Level 3 registered sex offender at the bank and look the other way at hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash withdrawals year after year.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.39% in July" --From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.39% in JulyThe Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 5 basis points from 0.44% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.39% as of July 31, 2023. According to MBA’s estimate, 195,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. Mortgage servicers have provided forbearance to approximately 7.9 million borrowers since March 2020.In July 2023, the share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 1 basis point to 0.20%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 13 basis points to 0.80%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 7 basis points to 0.45%.“The prevalence of forbearance plans has dramatically dropped since 2020, and the reasons that borrowers are in forbearance are changing,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “About two-thirds of borrowers are still in forbearance because of the effects of COVID-19, but a growing share of borrowers are in forbearance for other reasons that cause temporary hardship such as financial distress or natural disasters. With the COVID-19 national emergency lifted, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recently announced the retirement of certain COVID-19 flexibilities relating to forbearance plans and workouts.[1] This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. The share of forbearance plans has been decreasing and declined to 0.39% in July from 0.44% in June. At the end of July, there were about 195,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.
Housing August 21st Weekly Update: Inventory increased 0.9% Week-over-week; Down 10.0% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.9% week-over-week. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of August 18th, inventory was at 497 thousand (7-day average), compared to 492 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is up 1.2%. And inventory is up 22.5% from the seasonal bottom 18 weeks ago.The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels.Inventory was down 10.0% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was down 10.5%), and down 48.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 48.5%). It appears same week inventory will be below 2022 levels for the remainder of the year. It is possible that inventory will fall below the record lows in 2021 and early 2022 later this year or in early 2024, but currently that seems unlikely. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.07 million SAAR in July --From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slipped 2.2% in July Existing-home sales receded in July, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales grew in the West but faded in the Northeast, Midwest and South. All four regions registered year-over-year sales declines.Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – waned 2.2% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.07 million in July. Year-over-year, sales slumped 16.6% (down from 4.88 million in July 2022)....Total housing inventory registered at the end of July was 1.11 million units, up 3.7% from June but down 14.6% from one year ago (1.3 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.1 months in June and 3.2 months in July 2022.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.Sales in July (4.07 million SAAR) were down 2.2% from the previous month and were 16.6% below the July 2022 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.11 million in July up from 1.08 million in June. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.Inventory was down 14.6% year-over-year (blue) in July compared to July 2022. Months of supply (red) increased to 3.3 months in July from 3.1 months in June. This was below the consensus forecast.
Home Sales Plunge Further as Demand Vanished at these Prices. Even Cash Buyers Pull Back. Supply Keeps Rising by Wolf Richter Prices drop month-to-month and from peak (June 2022). Days on the market jump. Homeowners with 3% mortgages vanished as buyers and sellers in equal measure, entire market shrank. By Wolf Richter --Sales of previously owned homes (houses, condos, and co-ops) fell further, by 2.2% in July from June, to a deep-dismal seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales of 4.07 million, the lowest since January, which had matched the March 2020 lockdown low, which had been the lowest since the Housing Bust in 2010, even as the median price fell, as days on the market rose, and as supply rose to match the highs in 2022, and beyond that to the most supply since June 2020, according to the National Association of Realtors today.Year-over-year, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales fell by 16.6%. Compared to the Julys in prior years:
- July 2021: -32.5%.
- July 2019: -24.5%.
- July 2018: -24.5%.
What we’re seeing is that demand has vanished, and supply has vanished in equal measure because the homeowners who have a 3% mortgage are not buying a new home, and so they have vanished as buyers; and are therefore not putting their current home on the market, and so have they vanished as sellers. I estimated that the entire housing market – buyers and sellers – shrank by 20% because these homeowners vanished as buyers and sellers at the same time. In other words, there is less churn and increasing supply from other sources (historic data via YCharts).This drop in demand is further documented by the plunge in mortgage applications, indicating that closed sales for August, when reported a month from now, will look even worse than those in July, reported today.Actual sales in July – not seasonally adjusted annual rate – fell 18.1% year-over-year to 322,000 homes. The seasonal patterns are clear, the “spring selling season,” marked in green is over (data via NAR):By region, year-over-year sales plunged in all regions:Cash buyers and Investors pulled back too: All-cash sales – often investors and second home buyers – dropped by 11.2% year-over-year to 96,700 homes in July, or a share of 25% of total sales.The median price fell to $406,700 in July and was down by 1.7% from the peak in June 2022.The data today reflect sales that closed in July and were agreed to in prior weeks end months. The data reported a month ago of sales that closed in June and were made weeks earlier reflected the final hurrah of “spring selling season,” a phenomenon that occurs every year when prices and sales always rise, even during Housing Bust 1. Now spring selling season is over. Prices will decline in the second half into January, and it’s just a question of how much (historic data via YCharts):
DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven Increased 2.8% year-over-year in June -- The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported: Travel on all roads and streets changed by +3.1% (+8.4 billion vehicle miles) for June 2023 as compared with June 2022. Travel for the month is estimated to be 283.0 billion vehicle miles. The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for June 2023 is 268.9 billion miles, a 2.8% (7.4 billion vehicle miles) change over June 2022. It also represents a -0.2% change (-0.4 billion vehicle miles) compared with May 2023. This graph shows the monthly total vehicle miles driven, seasonally adjusted. Miles driven declined sharply in March 2020, and really collapsed in April 2020. Miles driven are now slightly below pre-pandemic levels.
Early Look at 2024 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base --The BLS reported on August 10th:The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 2.6 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 299.899 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). In 2022, the Q3 average of CPI-W was 291.901. The 2022 Q3 average was the highest Q3 average, so we only have to compare Q3 this year to last year. This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year. Note: The year labeled is for the calculation, and the adjustment is effective for December of that year (received by beneficiaries in January of the following year). CPI-W was up 2.6% year-over-year in July, and although this is early - we need the data for August and September - my early guess is COLA will probably be close to 3% this year, the smallest increase since 1.3% in 2021. Note that CPI-W was slightly negative month-over-month in August of 2022, so it is likely there will be a larger year-over-year increase in CPI-W next month than in July, hence my 3% early guess. The contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index. This is based on a one-year lag. The National Average Wage Index is not available for 2022 yet, wages increased solidly in 2022. If wages increased 5% in 2022, then the contribution base next year will increase to around $168,200 in 2024, from the current $160,200. Remember - this is an early look. What matters is average CPI-W, NSA, for all three months in Q3 (July, August and September).
Strike of 1,700 nurses in New Brunswick, New Jersey, at critical juncture -- The courageous strike of 1,700 nurses at Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital (RWJUH) in New Brunswick, New Jersey, is in imminent danger of being betrayed. The constant parade of Democratic politicians and officials from various trade unions on the picket lines indicates that the ruling class seeks to end the strike as quickly as possible by imposing concessions on the workforce. To prevent such a defeat and to strengthen their fight, the nurses must take the leadership of the strike into their own hands and turn to the working class for support. The main demands of the nurses at RWJUH are increased staffing and better nurse-to-patient ratios. Their other crucial demands include higher wages, a cap on health insurance costs and health benefits in retirement. These entirely legitimate demands are based on the nurses’ objective needs, as well as on the needs of patient safety. These demands are universal among healthcare workers. Understaffing and inadequate wages and benefits are worldwide problems that have contributed to high levels of burnout and to a mass exodus of nurses from their profession. The root cause of this crisis is the for-profit healthcare system, which regards nurses as expenses that must be minimized, and patients as sources of revenue. The pandemic has graphically demonstrated that this arrangement is inimical to public health. Any workplace struggle on the part of nurses is inseparable from a struggle against the system of for-profit medicine. RWJUH is the main hospital of Rutgers University’s Robert Wood Johnson Medical School. The strike is occurring at the hospital’s campus in New Brunswick, but the hospital also has campuses in Somerset and Rahway that remain unaffected. These hospitals are part of RWJBarnabas Health, which is the largest health care provider in New Jersey. This ostensibly not-for-profit charitable organization (a designation chiefly used as a tax write-off) has $6.6 billion in annual revenue. Barry Ostrowsky, its former CEO, was paid more than $16 million in 2022. He and his peers inhabit an entirely different social layer than the workers that they employ. The RWJUH nurses are members of United Steelworkers (USW) Local 4-200. The union’s policy for the strike can lead only to defeat. The USW has accepted the intervention of a federal mediator in the negotiations. Such officials are not neutral parties. As agents of the state, which represents the interests of Wall Street, federal mediators broker “compromises” that protect the holdings of the corporations and banks. Last year, President Joe Biden convened a board of mediators to develop a pro-company contract that Congress ultimately imposed on railroad workers. Furthermore, the USW has not called for the strike to be expanded or appealed to other workers for support. The USW has kept nurses at the Somerset and Rahway hospitals on the job. This tactic only isolates the New Brunswick nurses and strengthens RWJUH.
US test scores decline in history, civics, reading and math - As the school year resumes, educators face huge challenges from “learning loss” among students arising from the ongoing trauma of the pandemic and years of chronic underfunding of public education. With the ending of federal COVID-19 relief funding, many of the already limited tutoring programs and supplemental resources have now evaporated, compounding the problem. Earlier this summer, the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) released the results from its two national standardized tests, the Long-Term Trend (LTT) in reading and mathematics conducted among 13-year-old children and the National Assessment of Education Progress “Report Card” tests for history and civics among eighth grade students. Both tests showed a decline in all four subjects over the last decade.The 2022-2023 LTT assessment of 13-year-old students showed average test scores dropped 4 points in reading and 9 points in mathematics, compared to the last assessment in 2019-2020. Scores dropped significantly during the pandemic, which both political parties blamed on the shift to remote learning. The report showed, however, that the decline began before the pandemic in 2012. That year witnessed an acceleration of the Obama administration’s Race to the Top campaign promoting charter schools and a deepening attack on educators, as exhibited in the school closures and mass layoffs that occurred after the Chicago Teachers Union’s betrayal of the 2012 strike.While standardized test results are inherently problematic and have been used as a political weapon to attack public education, there is little doubt that American education is being increasingly bifurcated along class lines. Children of the working class are increasingly subjected to oversized classrooms, the lack of up-to-date facilities or even books and few cultural enrichments. Increasingly, they are slotted into for-profit charter schools or under-resourced public ones.Moreover, studies have long shown that educational achievement is highly correlated with a family’s socio-economic status. A few statistics on the escalating growth of social inequality can provide a small indication of the social catastrophe occurring in the population, a disaster exponentially compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic and the bipartisan prioritization of the stock market and predatory wars over public health and the needs of society. Children face enormous obstacles in their educational attainment.
- In 2023, among the 74 million children living in the United States, 11 million live in official poverty. This includes one in six children under five (3 million children), the highest rate of any age group. Almost half (47 percent) of all children in poverty live in severe or extreme poverty, a number which rose from 4.5 million before the pandemic to 5.5 million in 2021.
- The current “unwinding” of Medicaid is expected to cut some 22 million people from healthcare, including up to 7.3 million children, thousands of which have already lost coverage.
- In February 2022, Democratic President Joe Biden reduced food stamps across the board affecting 42 million Americans, all of them poor and many of them children. The average per capita payment fell to $6.10 a day, or about $2 a meal.
- In 2021, Democratic President Joe Biden ended the expanded Child Tax Credits, measures throwing some 30 million families into poverty.
- The government’s criminal disregard for the health and safety of the population during the pandemic has resulted in some 359,486 children losing a parent or primary caregiver; hundreds of thousands more suffer from the loss of other relatives and friends.
- With over 96.3 percent of US children having had COVID-19 at least once, the far-ranging issues associated with Long COVID, including the alarming dangers of COVID-19 brain damage are unknown.
The combined effect of poverty, illness and death upon children is literally incalculable. The continued fall in education levels across the board is the inevitable outcome of such socially regressive measures.
Florida elementary school pulled Black students out of class for lecture on poor test scores - Black students at Bunnell Elementary in Florida were singled out, isolated, and forced to attend an assembly about improving their scores on standardized tests, parents, Flagler County's interim Superintendent, and Board Chair confirmed to FOX 35. The fourth- and fifth-grade students were pulled out of class on Friday and told to go to the school cafeteria for an assembly, several parents have told FOX 35, where high-performing students were reportedly brought to the front and modeled as examples. Teachers discussed students' test scores and reportedly touted gift cards to fast-food restaurants as possible rewards for improving test scores, some parents told FOX 35. Flagler County Schools board chair Cheryl Massaro told FOX 35 that Black students were "isolated" for the assembly. She said the assembly should not have happened, but admits, "it did." Cheryl Massaro, Flagler County School District Board Chair Flagler County Schools confirmed in a statement to FOX 35 that such an assembly took place, but insisted "there was no malice intended." "Sometimes, when you try to think "outside of the box," you forget why the box is there," Interim Superintendent LaShakia Moore said in a written statement. "While the desire to help this particular subgroup of students is to be commended, how this was done does not meet the expectations we desire among Flagler Schools," Moore said.Moore confirmed in her statement that parents were not notified of the assembly. "We want our parents and guardians to actively participate in their children's educational successes. Without informing them of this assembly or of the plans to raise these scores, our parents were not properly engaged," her statement read.
Students’ test scores, already beleaguered, face new threats from extreme heat - Student learning and test scores are shown to fall when children are faced with extreme heat, a worrying sign as heat waves and rising temperatures become the norm in the U.S. This past week, millions of students went back to school, even as the Pacific Northwest faced an unprecedented heat wave that is suspected of killing three people. The persistent soaring temperatures, especially in areas unfamiliar with them, disproportionately impact children in rural or low-income areas, where school districts may not have adequate air conditioning. “My colleagues and I have a couple of studies where we find that hotter temperatures during the school year affect the rate of learning,” said Jisung Park, assistant professor in the Department of Public Policy at the UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation. “When we look at how more days above 85 and more days above 90 in the school year, it affects test scores. We find that it actually reduces the rate of learning,” he added. The predicament heightens the already extraordinary learning gap students brought back after COVID-19 and remote learning. The latest scores from the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) showed 13-year-olds’ average reading scores are at their lowest point since 2004, and average mathematics scores have gone down to levels last seen in 1990. Extreme heat negatively affecting student outcomes has been well-documented for years, but climate change is driving the problem to new heights — and new locations. In 2020, Park, along with two other colleagues from Standford University and Boston College, released a study analyzing heat and learning outcome data from 58 countries. The report showed hot temperatures not only can disrupt students on test days but can negatively impact learning in the longer term. “It’s a bigger effect for minority and lower-income students, possibly, because they don’t have as much air conditioning or other cooling access either at home or at school,” Park said.
Los Angeles Unified Announces School Closures Amid Tropical Storm Hilary: “This Was Not An Easy Decision” – Los Angeles Unified School District has announced school closures for Monday, August 21 following Tropical Storm Hilary. “Tomorrow there will be no schools,” Superintendent Alberto M. Carvalho said during a press conference on Sunday afternoon. Schools are expected to open and resume normal activities on Tuesday, August 22. “Los Angeles Unified is making the difficult decision to close all of our schools, campuses and after-school programs tomorrow, Monday, Aug. 21. Students and families: please do not come to your school campus,” read a statement from LAUSD shared on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter. The statement continued, “This was not an easy decision. Los Angeles Unified recognizes the unique, unprecedented nature of Tropical Storm Hilary, which has garnered city, county and state declarations of emergencies. We are expected to experience the peak of this storm at midnight, which does not afford enough time for our staff to adequately inspect our facilities.” In addition, LAUSD made the decision to close the schools as winds are forecasted “which may adversely impact our transportation network and system, putting students and employees at risk.” The school district informed that the storm has “downed power lines and impassable roads throughout the region, while flooding is forthcoming. These are imminent and major safety hazards.” “For many of our students, school provides a safe space with food, shelter and services on top of the education they already receive. However, we also recognize that many of our families have been impacted by Tropical Storm Hilary and that traveling to school may pose hardship or risk,” the statement continued. “To ensure continuity of learning, we have taken multiple steps to provide lessons and activities for students. Teachers will be asked to provide activities and resources on Schoology by 10:30 a.m. In addition, instructional resources are available at LAUSD.org, and KLCS will provide educational programming.”
Youngstown teachers vote to strike on the first day of school - The Youngstown City School District's teachers union has voted to strike starting on Wednesday, the first day of classes for a new school year. The union's membership voted "overwhelmingly" late Monday afternoon after an hour and a half of negotiations with the school district's bargaining team, said Jim Courim, spokesperson for the Youngstown Education Association. "The school board has had the ability and the power to end this labor dispute months ago, and they have one more opportunity to tomorrow at their board meeting at 4:30 (p.m.)," he said. The teachers and administration are not seeing eye-to-eye on contract language, Courim said in an interview Monday evening after the vote. He declined to specify exactly what the disputed language is. Courim said wages are "always" part of negotiations, but said the central conflict is "not about the amount this time, it's about contract language so that we have a fair contract where everybody is playing by the same rules." Teachers are not feeling heard by the administration, Courim said. "We would like to have a voice in the interventions that our students receive because we're with our students every day, and we know best how they learn," he said. "Unfortunately, our voices are not taken into consideration when discussing the extra math or English help that they receive, (or) the extra literacy help that they receive. " As of Monday evening, the school district had not yet responded to a request for comment. Superintendent Jeremy Batchelor said earlier this month that the school district and union did see eye-to-eye on a number of things, including health insurance and some administrative policy changes. He also said that the district offered an across-the-board 2% raise, but is willing to negotiate to get common ground, alleging the union is seeking a 5.5% raise. Courim called that 5.5% number a "lie" and said that the union has filed an unfair labor practices charge against the school district for saying as much to the media.
‘We’re not gonna take it’: School start postponed amid teachers’ strike - First day back to school for Youngstown City Schools students postponed due to Youngstown Education Association strike— Youngstown City School teachers are on the picket lines. Teachers have officially gone on strike in the district. A two-hour meeting Tuesday evening of the Youngstown city school board failed to result in an agreement with the teachers’ union — and Wednesday morning, the teachers are striking on what would have been the first day of school.The meeting began with the Youngstown school board adjourning into executive session, though it did not meet with the approval of the 250 teachers in attendance.The board members left the room by way of a familiar union chant: “Shame on you.”To pass the time, members of the Youngstown Education Association sang songs pertaining to their cause, including Twisted Sister’s “We’re Not Gonna Take It.”When the board returned, most of the meeting focused on the teachers’ strike scheduled to start in the morning, with the parents who spoke supporting the teachers.“My children will not be crossing the picket lines,” said parent Katie Wilson. “My kids will not be participating in remote learning.”“Always, let’s do what’s right and give these teachers what they deserve and what they are asking for,” said LaVertta Cooks-Shase, a parent.Teacher’s union spokesman Jim Courim also spoke.“You have the power, you have the authority, and you have the obligation to eliminate the language in the contract,” Courim said.But district Superintendent Jeremy Batchelor gave an example of language that’s been offered when it comes to placement, promotion and transfer.“And we’ve even offered language that is consistent with some of our neighboring districts that a higher performing than us,” Batchelor said.Three school board members also spoke.“And I may be alone, but I feel like that this board needs to come together and get this strike settled right away,” said Brenda Kimble, board member.“Come on. We’ve got to work this out. This is crazy. This is silly,” said board member Joseph Meranto.“But just know that this board is pro-teacher, we are pro-district,” said board member Kenneth Donaldson.
Four possible reasons women are more stressed in college than men – Students across the country are grappling with feelings of depression and anxiety, especially following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic — and women, it appears, are being hit by those feelings particularly hard. This past spring, 72 percent of female students in four-year undergraduate programs reported feeling stress “a lot of the prior” day while 56 percent of male students said the same, according to recently released Gallup poll findings. “There has been a clear trend for decades now where female college students report higher perceived stress than male college students,” said Brent Maximin, a lecturer in the psychology department at The City College of New York. Why does that gender gap exist? While research shows it does, experts have not yet come to a consensus on the reason for it. Some scholars believe the gap is in part due to “role overload” among women because of gender differences in familial responsibilities like being a caregiver for older or sick relatives or children. “We know from various studies, both on college students and non-college students, that women are more likely to experience role overload and conflict … balancing family responsibilities, group responsibilities and students’ responsibilities,” said Maximin. Women make up a disproportionate share of the roughly 5 million informal student caregivers in the United States. In one 2022 study of 7,592 student caregivers, 69.9 percent were women. “Caregivers for the chronically ill or elderly (but not for a minor) faced heightened emotional and academic risk,” the study states. “Specifically, caregiving for 3-5 days per week was associated with lower GPA, and caregiving more hours per day was linked to greater anxiety and depressive symptoms.” Another theory is that daily sexism on college and university campuses is contributing to stress levels among female students. “Oftentimes women experience discrimination and the perception that they need to be twice as good and that likely has some effect on their perceived stress,” Yet another possibility is that college-aged women report experiencing more stress and worry because of how they manage those feelings. Women are more likely to cope with stress with emotion-centered strategies like rumination, or repetitive thinking or dwelling on negative feelings, according to Maximin. This cycle of negative thinking can greatly contribute to depression and anxiety, but can also be a by-product of both conditions, research shows. Yet another theory is that male and female students both experience similar stressors, but that women are more likely to admit it. While conducting research in 2021 on college students and stress, B. Sue Graves, an associate professor at Florida Atlantic University, observed that female students were far more likely to share their troubles with others. “One thing that surprised me a little bit was that they did a little bit more venting than the males,” said Graves. Men in general are less likely to seek out help for their mental health than women. Almost one in four women received mental health treatment in 2019 while only 13.4 percent of men did the same, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A 2023 report from Statista, an online platform for data gathering and visualization, found that only 12.1 percent of men in the United States received any mental health treatment or counseling in 2021. Data from the American College Health Association shows that 27.9 percent of women who took part in the 2019 college health assessment survey were diagnosed or treated for anxiety. And 22.4 percent of female respondents said they were diagnosed or treated for depression that year. Meanwhile, just 12.6 percent of male students who took part in the survey admitted that they had been diagnosed or treated for anxiety and 11.6 percent for depression in the same time span.
Justice Department Secures Title IX Agreement Addressing Campus Sexual Assault and Harassment with Case Western Reserve University - The Justice Department announced today an agreement with Case Western Reserve University (CWRU) in Cleveland, Ohio, to resolve a federal investigation under Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972 into the university’s response to complaints of student-on-student and employee-on-student sexual harassment. Under the agreement, CWRU will undertake campus-wide reforms so that students can attend school and participate in Greek life programming free from sex discrimination, including sexual assault, sex-based stalking and retaliation for filing complaints of sex discrimination. “All students should be able to participate in college life without being subjected to sex discrimination. Far too often, students on our nation’s college and university campuses face stalking, harassment or sexual assault,” said Assistant Attorney General Kristen Clarke of the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division. “When sex discrimination rears its head, universities must respond appropriately to stop the misconduct and provide support so that the student can safely participate in school activities and complete their educational pursuits. This agreement would not have been possible without the many current and former student survivors who came forward and courageously shared their stories. We hope this agreement sends a message to the higher education community about the actions that must be taken to ensure that campuses are safe for all students.” “The U.S. Attorney’s Office takes sex discrimination allegations such as these very seriously. The agreement provides not only for increased training but also for revised policies and procedures along with increased efforts at campus engagement and internal monitoring to address such matters proactively,” said U.S. Attorney Rebecca Lutzko for the Northern District of Ohio. “This settlement sends a strong message that sexual harassment on college campuses will not be tolerated, and the measures in the agreement will help protect current and future students. We acknowledge and commend the students from CWRU whose efforts shined a light on this issue, and we look forward to working with CWRU to implement this important agreement.”The department’s investigation, which was conducted jointly by the Civil Rights Division and the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of Ohio, focused on CWRU’s response to student complaints and hundreds of social media reports alleging sexual harassment on campus and a hostile environment in Greek life. One quarter of CWRU’s undergraduate population participates in the university’s 10 sororities and 16 fraternities. The department’s investigation concluded that, among other things, CWRU did not respond appropriately to a well-known climate of sexual harassment in its Greek life program. Further, CWRU employees did not report sexual harassment complaints to the office tasked with responding to such allegations and providing students with support and resources.
CWRU reaches settlement with DOJ following Title IX investigation — Case Western Reserve University (CWRU) has reached a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice to reform its Title IX procedures following a two and a half-year investigation into how the school handled multiple complaints of sexual assault and harassment on campus. The DOJ's probe, which was conducted by its Civil Rights Division as well as the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Northern District of Ohio, focused on alleged instances of "student-on-student and employee-on-student" harassment. Officials concluded that "CWRU did not respond appropriately to a well-known climate of sexual harassment in its Greek life program" and that staff members "did not report sexual harassment complaints to the office tasked with responding to such Allegations and providing students with support and resources." Assistant Attorney General Kristen Clarke of the Civil Rights Division issued the following statement: "All students should be able to participate in college life without being subjected to sex discrimination. Far too often, students on our nation’s college and university campuses face stalking, harassment or sexual assault. When sex discrimination rears its head, universities must respond appropriately to stop the misconduct and provide support so that the student can safely participate in school activities and complete their educational pursuits. This agreement would not have been possible without the many current and former student survivors who came forward and courageously shared their stories. We hope this agreement sends a message to the higher education community about the actions that must be taken to ensure that campuses are safe for all students." There are 16 fraternities and 10 sororities registered with CWRU, and while not all of the complaints involved Greek life, a number of students who spoke to the DOJ described their negative views about the culture within that community. In particular, sexual misconduct in such spaces was described as "a pervasive norm," and certain fraternity chapters had a reputation of being particularly hostile. Other students claimed they did not even know where to go to report sexual harassment, and even those who knew to go to the Office of Equity expressed distrust with the institution. Some employees were also chided for either not looking into allegations in a timely fashion or, in some cases, discouraging students from filing complaints. "Our review of files confirmed that not only was the Office of Equity on notice that mandatory reporters on a number of occasions were failing to report incidents of sexual harassment, but the Office was also aware that some mandatory reporters had actively obstructed complainants from reporting instances of sexual harassment," a summary of the report read. Read the full report below:
Case Western Reserve University to change sexual assault policies The U.S. Department of Justice Tuesday announced it had reached an agreement with Case Western Reserve University for the private university to make campus-wide changes to how it handles allegations of sexual assault and sexual harassment. The changes promised will affect several different areas on campus, from its Greek Life programming to its Center for Women to its Office of Equity. Alleged issues with the university's handling of student-on-student and staff-on-student sexual misconduct were given greater light through hundreds of reports on an anonymous Instagram account started in 2020, called CWRU.Survivors. The department’s investigation concluded that, among other issues, Case Western Reserve did not respond appropriately to a "well-known climate of sexual harassment in its Greek Life program," a release from the Department of Justice reads. "Further, CWRU employees did not report sexual harassment complaints to the office tasked with responding to such allegations and providing students with support and resources," the release reads. According to a copy of the resolution agreement between DOJ and CWRU, the university has agreed to provide further funding for the Flora Stone Mather Center for Women, the Greek Life Office, and University Health and Counseling Services to hire additional advocates, counselors and confidential resources, while reorganizing its reporting structure. Further changes include more training on recognizing sexual misconduct for students participating in Greek Life and across campus, and an overhaul of policies and procedures related to its handling of complaints. The university in a statement noted the agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice was "voluntary," and both the DOJ and Case Western Reserve noted the university cooperated "fully" in the two-and-a-half year investigation.
Most should wait for updated COVID booster shot to maximize protection: Experts - Despite the rising number of COVID cases and hospitalizations in the past month, experts said most people should wait for the updated boosters to be released before getting another shot."If you're in a low-risk category and don't have consistent interaction with high-risk family or friends, waiting for the updated booster may be the right call," Dr. John Brownstein, chief innovation officer at Boston Children's Hospital and ABC News Medical Contributor, told ABC News. "It is a highly individualized decision and unfortunately there isn't perfect data on this."The updated booster is expected to be available mid-to-late September and is targeted to protect against newer variants, health officials said."It's hard to thread the needle perfectly when it comes to the timing of boosters. This has always been a challenge and given how difficult it is to predict the future, it's really hard to predict timing and optimize protection," Brownstein said.Earlier this year, the Food and Drug Administration requested vaccine manufacturers develop COVID boosters against an omicron subvariant known as XBB.1.5, following evidence provided by vaccine manufactures.At the time, it made up an estimated 40% of new COVID cases in the nation.Now, there are newer variants emerging such as EG.5 and BA.2.86. The latter was recently labeled as a "variant under monitoring" by the World Health Organization following concerns among some infectious disease experts due to its many mutations.The updated booster expected for the fall season showed a significant boost in antibodies against some of these currently circulating variants, vaccine manufacturers have told ABC News."Reasonably at this point, if you're not high risk and do not have high exposures, waiting a few weeks to get the updated shot should be okay," Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo, director of the pandemic center at Brown University School of Public Health, told ABC news.There may be specific situations where you may want to play it safe, however, and get a booster shot now."If you think you're going to have considerable exposures, between then and now, some boosting is better," Nuzzo said. "The best time to get vaccinated is before you get infected."
A third of adults believe COVID-19 vaccines caused thousands of sudden deaths: poll -- Belief in misinformation about key health issues persists among a good chunk of adults, with false claims about COVID-19, vaccines and reproductive health garnering a substantial amount of support, a new poll from KFF has found. Whether or not they believed the claims, nearly all participants in the survey were aware of the misinformation with 96 percent saying they had heard at least one of the 10 claims presented to them. The most widespread misinformation claims had to do with COVID-19 and vaccines. The new polling data found that a third of adults believed the COVID-19 vaccines “caused thousands of sudden deaths in otherwise healthy people,” with 10 percent believing that claim to be “definitely true” and 23 percent saying it was “probably true.” Another 34 percent said it was “probably false” and 31 percent said that claim was “definitely false.” Nearly a third of people also said they believed the parasitic deworming medication ivermectin was an “effective treatment for COVID-19.” Among the naysayers, 44 percent said that claim was “probably false” and 22 percent said it was “definitely false.” Health experts and clinicians have repeated stressed that there is no evidence that ivermectin has any efficacy in treating or preventing COVID-19 infections, and the Food and Drug Administration has never authorized the drug for use in treating the coronavirus. In the same poll, roughly a quarter of people said they believed vaccinations against measles, mumps and rubella caused autism in children and that COVID-19 vaccines cause infertility. No evidence has so far been found to indicate that immunization against SARS-CoV-2 affects male or female fertility. The claims that vaccines cause autism have long been refuted. Several studies, including one in Sweden published in 2020 that followed children exposed to flu vaccinations for several years, have found no link between vaccinations and autism.The British physician Andrew Wakefield who originated the claim has since been barred from practicing medicine in the U.K. and the 1998 study he conducted that linked autism to vaccinations has since been deemed fraudulent. Regarding reproductive health, about a third of survey participants said they believed sex education would lead to teens being more sexually active and also that birth control the pill or IUDs make it harder for women to get pregnant after they stop using those methods. Larger shares of participants believed in misinformation having to do with gun violence when compared to the other issues, with 60 percent saying they believed “armed school police guards have been proven to prevent school shootings.” A 2021 analysis of 133 school shootings from 1980 to 2019 found that armed school police officers — who were present in nearly a quarter of school shootings included in the study — were not associated with a significant reduction in gun injuries.Another 42 percent said they believed people who have firearms in their homes are less likely to be killed by a gun than people without guns at home. In fact, the opposite has been observed, with a 2022 analysis of California adults from 2004 to 2016 finding that overall homicide rates were more than two times higher among people who lived with gun owners than those who didn’t.
We Won’t Be Fooled Again- Kunstler -- Of all the vicious lies spun around the Covid-19 operation, among the most damaging was the campaign to demonize ivermectin, a Nobel Prize-winning true wonder-drug, among the safest known pharmaceuticals ever, effective against disease-causing parasites and also a potent anti-viral agent — which was exactly why the CDC and FDA turned on it. It very effectively subdued Covid-19 infections. That is, it worked. And because of that, these agencies had to pretend that it was worthless and harmful, to protect the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the fabulous mRNA vaccines that didn’t work and ended up harming, disabling, and killing many people. Any treatment that proved effective would have invalidated the EUA and negated the liability shield that came with the EUA, protecting the vaccine manufacturers from lawsuits. A week ago, in a lawsuit brought by three doctors against the FDA for its Covid-19 restrictions, DOJ lawyer Ashley Honold told the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit in Louisiana that “FDA explicitly recognizes that doctors do have the authority to prescribe ivermectin to treat Covid.” Really? After three years of bad-mouthing the drug in public service announcements — horse and cow de-wormer, not for humans! — and telling national boards of physicians not to use it, and telling the national organization of pharmacists not to fill prescriptions for it… which resulted in many states officially forbidding its use … which led to gross injustices such as the State of Maine Medical Board’s obtuse and insane persecution of bio-warfare expert and epidemiologist Dr. Meryl Nass (for which Dr. Nass is now suing them) … and to many other state boards revoking the licenses of doctors…. Days after that howler by DOJ lawyer Honold, the FDA honchos in DC walked back what she told the court, saying, “… it has not authorized or approved ivermectin for use in preventing or treating COVID-19, nor has the agency stated that it is safe or effective for that use.” The agency then invoked its battery of fake excuses for that ruling: studies are inconclusive, blah, blah, which is just more bullshit, you understand, because the bottom line is the same as ever: the FDA will not surrender the EUA and its various protections for the Covid vaccines. And it will employ any official lie to support that position. It also happened that going back to the 2019 debut of Covid-19, Dr. Anthony Fauci, then-head of the NIAID and Francis Collins then-head of the NIH — two related agencies that funded and supported coronavirus gain-of-function research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology — received many millions of dollars in “royalties” for their part in developing mRNA vaccines against the Covid-19 pathogen that they had priorly developed (the total dollar figure rumored to be above $300-million). See how that worked? If you are among that segment of the population that has not lost its mind, you might realize that the public health authorities have no authority. They lied outrageously about everything connected with Covid-19. And when they were caught lying, they just lied some more in the vain attempt to cover up their previous lies. And so, it would be foolish to regard anything they say from now on — without a complete house-cleaning of agency personnel, plus some earnest prosecutions — as worth listening to and following. Authority, you see, is granted only to those who are trustworthy. Yes, it’s really that simple. If an authority lies about everything, and is caught doing it, then it is rendered invalid. Now, it happens that the US public health agencies, huge and costly as they are, make up only one part of the even larger and costlier US government, which has been busy surrendering the authority of all its other parts for years now, to the point that the whole enterprise is untrustworthy and in need of a severe housecleaning.
COVID hospitalizations rise for 5th consecutive week but remain 3 times lower than same time last year: CDC - COVID hospitalizations in the U.S. have risen for a fifth consecutive week, with 12,613 new admissions in the week ending Aug. 12 -- an increase of 21.6% from the prior week, according to new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.The new admissions are still at the 22nd lowest levels recorded since tracking began in August 2020; only 21 weeks have had lower levels out of nearly 160 weeks of data, the CDC said Monday night. Current hospitalization numbers are about three times lower than the same time last year and about six times lower than in 2021, according to the CDC.Deaths have remained relatively stable, the new data shows, with about 1.3% of all U.S. deaths being attributed to COVID.There was a slight rise in deaths for the week ending on July 15, with an increase from 465 to 484 weekly deaths. Data on deaths is often delayed and, as such, is labeled as "provisional" on the CDC website.All currently circulating subvariants in the U.S. are related to XBB, a descendant of Omicron, according to the CDC.A newer subvariant known as BA.2.86 was recently labeled a "variant under monitoring" by the World Health Organization, following concern among some scientists due to its high number of mutations. Only about six cases have been reported so far with this subvariant. The cases were found spread around the world in individuals without travel history, suggesting an established international transmission, according to a recent risk assessment by the United Kingdom's Health Security Agency.
Mask mandates reemerge amid upturn in COVID-19 cases The recent upturn in COVID-19 cases in some regions has spurred a handful of entities around the country to reinstate mask mandates, reigniting the debate over what place masking requirements have in an era of living with the coronavirus. Earlier this week, Hollywood movie studio Lionsgate asked its employees to wear masks on certain floors of its facilities in Santa Monica, Calif., in response to a few staff members testing positive for COVID-19.Kaiser Permanente began to require staff, patients and visitors to wear masks at its facility in Santa Rosa, Calif., this week in response to a spike in cases. Upstate Medical University in New York announced a similar decision last week for two of its hospitals. Schools including Rutgers University in New Jersey and Morris Brown College in Georgia have issued mask mandates for their respective campuses, with the Atlanta-based school reinstating masks as a two-week precautionary measure. Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) spoke out against the news from Morris Brown College, writing on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, “Americans have had enough COVID hysteria. WE WILL NOT COMPLY!” Nationally, hospitalizations due to COVID-19 have been rising the past few weeks. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), however, shows that hospital admission rates are still considered low in 97 percent of the U.S. According to Marcus Plescia, chief medical officer for the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO), the necessity of mask mandates will come down to a case-by-case basis, adding that publicly available data should inform these decisions. “I think the new approach is we want to make that information available to the public and give people some warning that there may be some increases in disease activity,” Plescia said. “And then people decide for themselves sort of how they want to react and what kind of precautions they want to take.”
ECDC classifies XBB.1.5-like lineages with the amino acid change F456L as variants of interest following an increase in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in EU/EEA countries and abroad - ECDC classified XBB.1.5-like lineages with the additional amino acid change F456L as variants of interest (VOI) due to a rapid increase in the proportion of these variants presently in circulation, which may have immune-escape properties compared to the variants which were previously in circulation. Based on what is observed in countries outside the EU/EEA, it is likely that F456L variants will contribute to increased transmission in the coming weeks. However, it is unlikely that the resultant levels of severe disease will reach those of similar peaks previously observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is also unlikely that F456L variants are associated with any increase in infection severity compared to the previously circulating variants, or reduction in vaccine effectiveness against severe disease. However, as for other SARS-CoV-2 variants, older individuals and those with underlying conditions could develop severe symptoms if infected. The completeness and timeliness of epidemiological and virological COVID-19 surveillance data has decreased in the last year, which affects the ability to make an assessment for all EU/EEA countries. Member States are encouraged to expand their use of, and report data from well-designed, representative population-based surveillance in primary and secondary care to monitor trends in transmission and severe disease by time, place, and person, in a timely manner. Where possible, all SARS-CoV-2-positive specimens from representative surveillance systems should be sequenced and reported to the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) and/or The European Surveillance System (TESSy) to facilitate the assessment of circulating variants. Adherence to national vaccination schedules is essential to protect people at high risk for severe disease and death. Countries should assess their readiness to identify target groups and conduct timely COVID-19 vaccination campaigns. In addition, communication campaigns aimed at the public and healthcare professionals are deemed necessary to reach high-risk groups and inform them of the importance to stay up to date with vaccination. As of 10 August 2023, ECDC classified all XBB.1.5-like lineages with the additional spike protein change F456L as SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest (VOI). The reasons for this classification are: a) the rapid increase in the proportion of this mutation in the positive samples from EU/EEA countries, b) a slight increase in the epidemiological indicators of community transmission, and c) the mutation is predicted and verified by a preliminary in-vitro study to contribute to immune escape, compared to the previously circulating variants [1]. So far there is no evidence that F456L variants meet any of the criteria for variants of concern (VOC), i.e. moderate to high evidence of the variant being associated with an increase in infection severity, a risk for compromising the healthcare capacity in the EU/EEA, or a reduction in vaccine effectiveness (Figure 1). ECDC SARS-CoV-2 variant classification criteria and recommended actions for EU/EEA Member States are outlined on the ECDC variant webpage [2,3].
New COVID variants EG.5, FL.1.5.1 and BA.2.86 are spreading. Here's what to know. - CBS News --Health authorities say they're closely tracking the spread of three new COVID-19 variants now spreading around the country.Levels of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths for now remain far below previous peaks seen during past summer and winter waves of the virus, but have been climbing steadily for several weeks.Public health officials have said that they're well-equipped for the latest seasonal uptick in the virus, with COVID-19 tests and forthcoming vaccines expected to work for the variants on the rise around the country. But the appearance of a new "highly mutated" variant has raised questions among virus trackers about what the coming months could hold. There are two current new COVID variants that are fairly prevalent and one — the highly mutated variant — that is not as widespread, for now. Every two weeks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention publishes projections of COVID-19 variants that are dominant around the country. The EG.5 variant is estimated to be the "dominant" strain in the U.S. because it makes up the largest share of new cases of COVID-19 compared to other variants. On Aug. 18, the CDC estimated EG.5 made up 20.6% of new infections. Behind EG.5 – unofficially nicknamed "Eris" on social media – is a long list of other closely related variants, virtually all of which descended from the XBB strains that were dominant last winter. FL.1.5.1 is the next-largest strain at 13.3% of U.S. infections, the CDC estimated. Dubbed "Fornax" by Gregory, FL.1.5.1 has nearly doubled from the week prior when it was an estimated 7.1% of circulating variants. Both EG.5 and FL.1.5.1 are XBB variant descendants that share amutation known as F456L, which appears to be helping them spread more than other virus siblings. Authorities have also been tracking a new highly mutated strain of the virus called BA.2.86. That strain was nicknamed "Pirola" byuser @JPWeiland on social media. BA.2.86's prevalence remains too small to show up on the CDC estimates and is currently being aggregated with its distant ancestor BA.2. While only a small handful of cases have been spotted around the world, including one in Michigan, the strain's large number of mutations at some key parts of the virus has accelerated investigations into the risk that BA.2.86 might pose. COVID symptoms appear to be largely the same. Since EG.5 and FL.1.5.1 emerged, officials have generally downplayed claims of dramatic changes in symptoms caused by these closely related new variants, compared to their close Omicron variant relatives from earlier in the pandemic. There has been no evidence of increased disease severity from the new EG.5 strain, the WHO reported on August 9. In recent months, COVID-19 symptoms appear to have remained largely the same as they have for the past year, with cold and flu-like signs – cough, headache, muscle aches, runny nose and fatigue – reported most often. As for BA.2.86, officials say it is too early to say whether that strain will cause more severe illness because of its worrying sum of mutations. In Denmark, health officials said their three BA.2.86 variant cases did not have "symptoms other than those normally seen" from COVID-19.
CDC tracking new COVID lineage BA.2.86 after it was detected in the US - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it is tracking a new lineage of the virus that causes COVID-19 after it was detected in the United States.Named BA.2.86, the strain was first detected in Denmark on July 24 of this year, then Israel, followed by Michigan in August for a total of four cases, according to the open global genome sequencing database GISAID."Today we are more prepared than ever to detect and respond to changes in the COVID-19 virus," a CDC spokesperson told ABC News. "Scientists are working now to understand more about the newly identified lineage in these for cases and we will share more information as it becomes available."According to lab data, BA.2.86 has more than 30 mutations in total, much more than other variants currently circulating."Based on the available evidence, we do not yet know what risks, if any, this may pose to the public's health beyond what has been seen with other currently circulating lineages," the spokesperson said.
BA.2.86 subvariant potentially better at causing breakthrough infections: CDC The recently detected BA.2.86 COVID-19 subvariant may be more capable of causing infections in people who previously contracted the virus or have been vaccinated, according to a risk assessment from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), though it remains unclear if this strain causes more severe illness than others. First detected last month, a handful of infections caused by BA.2.86 have been reported in the U.S., Denmark, South Africa, the U.K. and Israel. The CDC noted that genomic sequencing of COVID-19 has dropped “substantially” when compared to the past few years, so the spread and occurrence of new strains may go undetected for longer. So far only two cases from BA.2.86 have been confirmed in the U.S. This newer strain is believed to be descended from the BA.2 “stealth” variant that surged globally early last year. The updated COVID-19 vaccines are targeted towards strains descending from the XBB Omicron subvariant. The CDC said researchers are evaluating the effectiveness of the updated shots, which are anticipated to reduce severe disease and hospitalizations. Compared to other strains descended from the Omicron subvariant, BA.2.86 has many more mutations, with the CDC comparing the differences between it and its likely ancestor BA.2 as being similar to the difference between the delta and Omicron variants. “The large number of mutations in this variant raises concerns of greater escape from existing immunity from vaccines and previous infections compared with other recent variants,” the CDC said in its assessment. “For example, one analysis of mutations suggests the difference may be as large as or greater than that between BA.2 and XBB.1.5, which circulated nearly a year apart.” The agency added, however, that it’s still too soon to know what real-world impact the recently detected strain will have on immunity. The World Health Organization has designated the BA.2.86 as a “variant under monitoring,” meaning it has “genetic changes” that indicate early signs of an advantage over other circulating strains, but the true impact remains unclear.
Britain among four countries where new highly mutated COVID strain detected - Amid a surge of COVID cases in Britain, a new possibly more dangerous strain, BA.2.86, has been detected. The announcement that the new strain, dubbed “Pirola”, had been detected in the UK was made August 18, after it had already been found in Israel, Denmark and the United States. Pirola could mark a new stage in the pandemic as it has 35 mutations on the spike protein that distinguish it from Omicron XBB.1.5. A man walks past a COVID-19 vaccination tent at St Thomas' Hospital, near the National Covid Memorial Wall in London, Monday, December 27, 2021. Over 24.2 million people have been infected with COVID in the UK and over 229,000 are dead from the disease. (AP Photo/David Cliff) Omicron was the most recent variant of COVID to dominate globally. Vaccines are effective against Omicron, and the next iteration of vaccines are aimed at combatting it. It is possible they will be less effective against Pirola. It is likely that community transmission of Pirola has been underway for some time. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) reported that the first case found was detected in an individual with no travel history outside the UK. The Independent reported Saturday, “Luke Blagdon Snell, a clinical research fellow at King’s College London, said a patient at Guy’s and St Thomas’ in the capital had first shown symptoms five days ago, and had acquired the infection ‘locally’”. Molecular virologist Professor Marc Johnson tweeted, “The three Denmark cases were from different parts of the country and had no known contact with one another. This is looking more and more like an avalanche.” Prof Francois Balloux, director of the UCL Genetics Institute, said that another SARS-CoV-2 variant, EG.5 / EG.5.1 (nicknamed Eris), was “one of the myriad Omicron sub-lineages in circulation constantly jockeying for places.” He said of Pirola, “More recently the BA.2.86 variant has attracted attention, rightly so, as it is of far more interest. BA.2.86 is the most striking SARS-CoV-2 strain the world has witnessed since the emergence of Omicron.” “The most plausible scenario is that the lineage acquired its mutations during a long-term infection in an immunocompromised person over a year ago and then spread back into the community,” he said. “BA.2.86 has since then probably been circulating in a region of the world with poor viral surveillance and has now been repeatedly exported to other places in the world.” The appearance in Britain of the new highly mutated version of COVID comes amid a spike in the spread of the disease, under conditions in which all testing and monitoring has been abandoned by the Conservative government and devolved Scottish and Welsh administrations. Those infections were driven by the Omicron variants Eris and Arcturus, accounting for nearly half of all UK cases. Eris, or EG.5.1, was first monitored in Asia, in early July this year. Classified as a variant present in Britain on July 10, it then accounted for 11.8 percent of cases and increased by early August to 14.6 percent. The UN health agency reports that Eris has been detected in 51 countries. Arcturus, which emerged earlier, in April, was responsible for nearly 40 percent (39.4 percent) of UK cases at that time. Since then, COVID has spread more widely, with the number of neighbourhoods hit by outbreaks in England seeing cases double in a fortnight. The Mail reported Saturday, based on UKHSA statistics, that almost 600 districts reported clusters of infections in the week to August 12. This was a marked increase from the 270 two weeks earlier. The newspaper explained that “589 out of 6,500 neighbourhoods in England had detected at least three Covid cases in the week to August 12.” It continued, “For comparison, just 58 areas had reached this threshold — given to protect the anonymity of patients sickened in tiny clusters — at the start of July.” This represents a tenfold surge of COVID in England in the space of 10 weeks. On August 7, the number of daily COVID hospital admissions had more than doubled from four weeks earlier. Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, wrote in The Conversation, “Immunity against infection, either from immunisation or following infection, is very short lived—only a matter of months. As covid heads towards being endemic it will likely still cause an average of around 80,000 new infections each day in England for years to come.” Dr Trisha Greenhalgh, a primary healthcare expert at the University of Oxford and member of the group Independent SAGE, tweeted of Pirola, “My various science WhatsApp groups are buzzing. Genetic lineage clips and diagrams flying back and forth”, adding that it “looks like it’s once again time to MASK UP”.
Salmonella outbreak affecting 11 states linked to pet turtles: CDC — The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is warning people to not get too close to pet turtles due to a salmonella outbreak affecting multiple states. As of Friday, 26 people across 11 states have reportedly been infected, the CDC reported. Overall, nine people have been hospitalized. With the exception of one case in California, all cases were reported in the East and Midwest. Tennessee has reported the most cases at six, followed by Pennsylvania at four. The first cases of salmonella believed to be connected to turtles were reported in October 2022, with new cases reported nearly every month since. It can take three to four weeks to determine if a person who becomes ill is connected to an outbreak, the CDC explains. The average age of those who became ill was 14, and 31% of patients are under the age of 5.Last month, the Tennessee Department of Health determined samples from two turtles and their tanks collected from a sick person’s home had salmonella “closely related to bacteria from sick people.” Thirteen people who became ill said they purchased their turtle online, from stores, or from a reptile show but it’s unclear if there is a common source of the turtles.The CDC said turtles of any size can transfer the bacteria to humans, but that turtles with shells smaller than 4 inches are more likely to do so, which is why those tinier reptiles are illegal to be sold as pets.“Reputable pet stores do not sell turtles with shells less than 4 inches long,” the CDC warns. People who have turtles are reminded to not eat around them and to wash their hands after touching and cleaning the pet. Also, the CDC says pet owners should refrain from snuggling or kissing their turtles.Those with compromised immune systems are not advised to have a turtle in their home. Salmonella infections are commonly associated with diarrhea, fever, and stomach cramps, according to the CDC. Symptoms can begin between six hours and six days after you’ve been infected by the bacteria. Most people are able to recover without receiving treatment within four to seven days.Illnesses may be more severe for young children, the elderly, and those with weakened immune systems. Some may require medical treatment or hospitalization, the CDC explains. Every year, salmonella causes roughly 1.35 million illnesses and 420 deaths. The CDC is currently investigating a salmonella outbreak linked toground beef. Other recent outbreaks have been linked to raw cookie dough, alfalfa sprouts, raw salmon, and bearded dragons – all CDC investigations into these outbreaks have been closed.
CDC launches new sepsis initiative for US hospitals -The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Thursday announced the launch of a new initiative aimed at supporting sepsis teams at U.S. hospitals in light of new data that found a third of patients who die in hospitals had sepsis while hospitalized. The CDC’s Hospital Sepsis Program Core Elements will act as a “manager’s guide” on how to organize staff and identify resources needed for bringing sepsis rates down, the agency said. The initiative listed seven elements of a strong sepsis program: leadership commitment, accountability, multi-professional expertise, action, tracking, reporting, and education. Sepsis occurs when the body’s immune system responds to an infection in an extreme way, causing damage to tissues and organs. This condition can be caused by almost any type of infection and often occurs in health care settings. “Sepsis is taking too many lives. 1 in 3 people who dies in a hospital has sepsis during that hospitalization,” CDC Director Mandy Cohen said. “Rapid diagnosis and immediate appropriate treatment, including antibiotics, are essential to saving lives, yet the challenges of awareness about and recognition of sepsis are enormous.” According to a survey shared by the CDC of more than 5,000 hospitals, while 73 percent of hospitals have sepsis committees, only a little more than half of these locations give sepsis program leaders the time needed for proper management. About 1.7 million U.S. adults develop sepsis every year, and 350,000 of them either die during hospitalization or are moved to hospice care.
Pennsylvania resident contracts deadly flesh-eating bacteria: Dept. of Health — A rare and potentially deadly flesh-eating bacteria that’s causing concerns in the U.S. has been confirmed in a Pennsylvania resident. The Vibrio vulnificus (V. vulnificus) infection was confirmed by the Pennsylvania Department of Health, saying that a resident likely contracted the bacteria in another state and it’s non-contagious. Due to medical privacy laws, no other information was available from the Dept. of Health. Health officials say there have been three deaths in recent weeks from vibriosis in the country, an illness caused by the bacteria.V. vulnificus is found naturally in warm saltwater and people can be infected through an open wound, including a fresh new tattoo. It can also be contracted by eating raw, infected shellfish, particularly raw oysters.There are a number of symptoms when infected by ingesting the bacteria, according to the Dept. of Health. Those can include vomiting, diarrhea and abdominal pain.In people with underlying health issues, particularly with chronic liver disease, the bacteria can infect the bloodstream, causing severe and life-threatening illness with fever and chills, decreased blood pressure (septic shock) and blistering skin lesions. Health officials said that bloodstream infections are deadly roughly 50% of the time.The bacteria can also cause infection in open wounds exposed to warm seawater. It may lead to skin breakdown and ulceration, officials said. Those who are immunocompromised have a higher risk of bloodstream infection with potentially deadly complications.
Retail giants warned over online sales of unapproved products targeting kids’ skin condition - The U.S. Food Drug and Administration (FDA) has warned six companies — including Amazon and Walmart — over selling unapproved products marketed as treatments for a skin condition affecting children. The FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research sent the six companies — Amazon, Walmart, Nature’s Innovation, MolluscumRx, Thrasio and Molluscumaway — warning letters dated Aug. 18 over unapproved products that are marketed to treat molluscum contagiosum. The letters, which were published online Tuesday, said that the skin condition cannot be treated through self-diagnosis and treatment, noting that there is not any over-the-counter product that is approved to treat the condition. The letters warn the companies over products including Naturasil Molluscum Treatment Kit, Conzerol 2 Step Treatment for Molluscum Contagiosum, ZymaDerm for Molluscum and HealthyDerm Molluscum Contagiosum Treatment. The FDA said that the selling of such unapproved products violates the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act. The FDA gave the companies 15 days to respond with proof that they are no longer selling the products or with evidence saying that the sale does not violate FDA rules. If they do not comply, the companies could face further discipline. The FDA wrote that the products “are especially concerning from a public health perspective because they are marketed for use in children.”“In addition, FDA is concerned that people are forgoing or delaying proper diagnosis and treatment of a potentially serious undiagnosed health condition by purchasing and using an unapproved drug product claiming to treat molluscum contagiosum,” the letter stated.Molluscum is a “common, benign, viral infection that can cause white, pink, or flesh-colored bumps,” according to the FDA. It is spread by skin-to-skin contact and is most common in children under the age of 10. Without treatment, the skin condition will likely go away on its own within six to 12 months, but in some cases could take up to five years. Last month, the FDA approved the first prescription treatment for the condition, “Ycanth,” for children 2 years old and older. “Do not purchase or use nonprescription (over-the-counter, or OTC) products that claim to treat molluscum, even if the companies make statements that suggest their product may have been reviewed or is endorsed by the FDA,” the FDA warned.
Memes About Animal Resistance Are Everywhere — Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Laugh off Rebellious Orcas and Sea Otters Too Quickly - Memes galore centered on the “orca revolution” have inundated the online realm. They gleefully depict orcas launching attacks on boats in the Strait of Gibraltar and off the Shetland coast. One particularly ingenious image showcases an orca posed as a sickle crossed with a hammer. The cheeky caption reads, “Eat the rich,” a nod to the orcas’ penchant for sinking lavish yachts. A surfboard-snatching sea otter in Santa Cruz, California has also claimed the media spotlight. Headlines dub her an “adorable outlaw” “at large.” Memes conjure her in a beret like the one donned by socialist revolutionary Ché Guevara. In one caption, she proclaims, “Accept our existence or expect resistance … an otter world is possible.” My scholarship centers on animal-human relations through the prism of social justice. As I see it, public glee about wrecked surfboards and yachts hints at a certain flavor of schadenfreude. At a time marked by drastic socioeconomic disparities, white supremacy and environmental degradation, casting these marine mammals as revolutionaries seems like a projection of desires for social justice and habitable ecosystems.A glimpse into the work of some political scientists, philosophers and animal behavior researchers injects weightiness into this jocular public dialogue. The field of critical animal studies analyzes structures of oppression and power and considers pathways to dismantling them. These scholars’ insights challenge the prevailing view of nonhuman animals as passive victims. They also oppose the widespread assumption that nonhuman animals can’t be political actors. So while meme lovers project emotions and perspectives onto these particular wild animals, scholars of critical animal studies suggest that nonhuman animals do in fact engage in resistance.
Canadian wildfire smoke led to spike in asthma ER visits in Northeast US: CDC --The smoke from Canadian wildfires that engulfed U.S. cities this summer and turned New York City’s skies orange led to a spike in asthma-related visits to emergency rooms, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) revealed Thursday.Smoke caused dangerously low air quality in cities across the U.S., but the impact was felt especially in the Northeast, a CDC study claims. Nationally, asthma-related ER visits increased by 17 percent in areas impacted by the smoke.In New York and New Jersey, smoke caused 364 excess asthma ER visits, the study claims, all of which occurred around the early June wildfire smoke that dirtied New York City air to “very unhealthy” levels. Hospital traffic was 46 percent higher in those states on smoke days.Those states saw five days this summer, the most of any region in the country, where air quality rose above 100 on the Environmental Protection Agency’s air quality index. Levels around 50 are considered normal, while any mark above 150 is considered “unhealthy for all groups.”On June 8, New York City’s air quality index spiked to 257, considered “very unhealthy.”“Yesterday New Yorkers saw and smelled something that had never impacted us on this scale before,” New York City Mayor Eric Adams said at the time. “We had dangerously high levels of wildfire smoke from thousands of miles away, from the gloom over Yankee Stadium to the smoky haze scouring our skyline. We could see it, we could smell it and we felt it.” A second CDC study focused on New York state alone, without New York City, found that hospital visits related to asthma increased by 82 percent on those most severe early June wildfire days, with the impact most severe in central New York. Wildfire smoke contains large particles that can exacerbate already-present health conditions like asthma by irritating the lungs and other parts of the body.People with asthma often wheeze, are breathless, have chest tightness and have either nighttime or early-morning coughing.“I have no doubt that every asthmatic had an uptick in symptoms,” Dr. Adrian Pristas, a New Jersey pulmonologist, told The Associated Press. “Some were able to manage it on their own, but some had to call for help.”The Mid-Atlantic and Appalachian region saw four days of significant wildfire smoke, but a smaller increase in asthma ER visits, according to the study. The Midwest saw smaller ER visit increases in four wildfire smoke days as well.Canada is facing one of the most severe wildfire seasons in the country’s history. While fires in eastern and central Canada created the smoke that choked the Northeast U.S. earlier this year, now fires in British Columbia have threatened the air quality in the Pacific Northwest.
EPA starts over on smog standards, garnering pushback from environmentalists over delay - The Biden administration will drop its current efforts to evaluate the nation’s smog pollution standards and start again, in what environmentalists are describing as an unnecessary delay. In a letter dated Friday to a panel of science advisers, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Michael Regan said he would restart the agency’s review of regulations for ground-level ozone, a key ingredient in smog. The agency first said in 2021 that it would review the Trump administration’s decision not to update the smog pollution regulations. It announced the decision to start over in a press release Monday. “After carefully reviewing the advice of the independent scientific panel, I am convinced that a full and complete review of the ozone [standards] is warranted to ensure a thorough and transparent assessment of the latest science,” Regan said in the statement.But environmentalists said this decision amounted to a needless delay that could result in more people breathing in dangerous pollution in the meantime.“It’s very disappointing, the delay,” said Raúl García, vice president of policy and legislation at Earthjustice. He added that it “begs the question of how many deaths, how many asthma attacks, how many people with heart conditions are going to come out because this decision is now going to be delayed potentially years.”The standards regulate the amount of ozone, which can be harmful at the ground level, that is considered safe. The standards then inform state actions to reduce pollution below harmful levels, making them a key factor in preventing health problems related to exposure to ozone and smog.Exposure to this type of pollution can aggravate lung issues, including asthma, emphysema and chronic bronchitis and increase how often asthma attacks occur, the EPA says. According to the United Nations, it has also been linked to premature deaths.
EPA’s ozone do-over faces backlash - Twelve years ago, environmental and public health groups seethed as then-President Barack Obama shut down plans to tighten EPA air quality standards for ground-level ozone. On Monday, they watched in dismay as a similar scenario unfolded under another Democratic president. Two months after an EPA expert advisory panel recommended steep cuts on the limits of the lung-searing pollutant, agency Administrator Michael Regan said that he was instead launching a fresh assessment of the standards that will likely take years to complete. Because of scientific issues flagged by the panel warranting “additional evaluation,” Regan wrote in a letter released Monday, “I have decided that the best path forward is to initiate a new statutory review.” His punt means that President Joe Biden’s administration will be spared a divisive decision on tightening one of EPA’s most important air quality regulations in advance of next year’s elections. Asked in an email Monday evening whether the White House had any involvement, a spokesperson did not reply by publication time Tuesday. At EPA, agency spokesperson Khanya Brann did not address a similar question but said in an email that “EPA’s process is independent, transparent, and science based.” Meanwhile, John Bachmann, a former senior EPA air office employee who worked on past reviews of pollutant standards, said that there is a valid argument for a do-over, though a host of advocacy organizations predicted that human health will suffer in the interim. “This means tens of millions of Americans will be subject to unsafe air pollution for years to come,” John Walke, clean air director for the Natural Resources Defense Council, said in a statement. “The EPA has had four years to get this done,” Walke added, “and the agency must commit to finalize this review” by a Clean Air Act deadline of December 2025. Lianne Sheppard, a University of Washington biostatistics professor who chairs the EPA panel, formally known as the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee, said in a Tuesday email that she respected Regan’s decision, “which is his alone to make.” “However, I am disappointed, given the robust scientific evidence that ozone is harmful to public health and welfare,” Sheppard continued, adding that she was confident that EPA can meet the 2025 deadline. Regan’s decision also bucks recent urgings by the White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council and a coalition of Democratic lawmakers, both of which had separately called for adoption of a new ozone standard by the spring of next year.
500 m (1 640 feet) long earth crack opens in Cocotitlán, Mexico - (videos) A significant earth crack, measuring approximately 500 m (1 640 feet) in length and 3 m (10 feet) in depth, appeared recently in the cultivated lands of Cocotitlán, State of Mexico, raising concerns among its residents. While the immediate surroundings haven’t experienced any damages from the crack, its presence led locals to seek assistance and evaluation from both municipal and state authorities. Cocotitlán resident, Ángeles Castillo, emphasized the looming uncertainty, noting, “Living just meters away, the unknown depth and potential spread of the crack is deeply unsettling.” To maintain safety, authorities have set up cordons around the affected area, with intermittent patrols by state and municipal police to deter curious onlookers. Despite these measures, a local landowner affected by the crack opted to fill parts of it, potentially jeopardizing the upcoming geological investigations meant to assess its full nature and implications. Civil protection urged the population not to approach the area and to notify the local authorities in the event that more cracks are generated. Furthermore, additional reports highlight the presence of similar cracks in neighboring areas such as Chalco and the town of San Martín Cuautlalpan, suggesting a possible larger phenomenon. Cocotitlán is located in the State of Mexico (often abbreviated as Edomex), which is part of the central region of Mexico. This region, especially areas around the Valley of Mexico, has been known for subsidence issues. Subsidence often results from groundwater extraction which causes the ground to sink. Over the years, parts of Mexico City, which is in proximity to Edomex, have experienced significant sinking due to the extraction of groundwater. Furthermore, Mexico is seismically active because of its location atop several tectonic plate boundaries, which can cause ground ruptures and other geological phenomena. However, tectonic activity and subsidence from groundwater extraction are two distinct phenomena.
Tropical Storm Hilary hits US and Mexico, threatening flooding and devastation - Tropical Storm Hilary, which made landfall Sunday morning in Baja California as a hurricane, crossed the US-Mexico border late Sunday afternoon local time after weakening. Although downgraded to a tropical storm, this reflects mainly a reduction in wind speeds to below 75 miles per hour. But the storm still produced unprecedented rainfall across a region approximately 20 miles east of the major urban centers of San Diego and Los Angeles. A worker walks past a fallen tree blocking Pico Boulevard in Los Angeles on Sunday, August 20, 2023. Tropical Storm Hilary swirled northward Sunday just off the coast of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula, no longer a hurricane but still carrying so much rain that forecasters said “catastrophic and life-threatening” flooding is likely across a broad region of the US Southwest. Hilary was the first named storm to hit Southern California since Tropical Storm Nora in 1997 and would have been the first hurricane to hit the region in nearly a century. It dealt a savage blow to parts of Baja California in northern Mexico, killing at least one man in Santa Rosalía, whose car was swept off the road. In California, residents of the Channel Islands and, in particular, Catalina Island, home to some 4,000 people, have been advised to evacuate. Over the next 24 hours, the storm is tracking to pass over the Sierra Nevada Mountains and into western Nevada, perhaps reaching as far north as Reno before fully dissipating. Overnight, the storm is expected to bring flooding, strong winds and potentially lethal mudslides as it travels north. States of emergency have been declared in California and Nevada and in a number of cities and towns in the path of the storm. In San Diego County, the weather service said that boulders were rolling in the town of Julian, and a tornado warning was issued for the broader Alpine area. Videos posted on twitter have shown only a part of the unfolding catastrophe. On top of the storm, the California city of Ojai experienced a 5.0 earthquake at 2:40 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) on Sunday. The Southwest US and northwest of Mexico are well known for their arid and desert climates, and those who live there have virtually no experience with storms of this magnitude. Since meteorologists began reporting on Hilary three days ago, there have been runs on grocery stores, with some running out of bottled water. The infrastructure in the Southwest—at least, where it is appropriately funded—is typically built to withstand earthquakes, a much more familiar threat, but not to withstand high winds or flooding. Early projections showed that Hilary could dump as much water on California in a day as the state usually gets in a year. The area’s ecosystem is also expected to be overwhelmed by the storm. Soil, under conditions of chronic drought, where decades of wildfires have decimated vegetation, can quickly form mudflows and cause landslides once flooded. Just under a year ago, on August 24, 2022, a part of Interstate 10, connecting Southern California with Arizona, was washed away following a flash flood. The last time a hurricane hit California directly was in 1939, and it caused blackouts, cut phone service and killed just under 100 people. In 1977, Hurricane Doreen—a Category 1 hurricane at its peak—hit Baja California, but bounced back into the Pacific and skirted along the California coast before dissipating over the Channel Islands. Though Doreen veered off into the Pacific, taking the worst of the storm off the mainland, it still killed eight people and swept six children away in the Los Angeles River, one of whom was among the dead.
Hilary becomes the fourth tropical storm or hurricane to reach California intact, brings record-breaking rains - Tropical Storm “Hilary” — previously a Category 4 hurricane — reached California on August 20, 2023, marking its position as one of the rare storms to maintain integrity upon reaching the state. The storm, with surface winds over 80 km/h (50 mph), brought with it record-breaking rainfall and caused widespread flooding and power outages across the region. Post-Tropical Cyclone “Hilary” is forecast to continue its track north into the heart of the Great Basin today, spreading heavy rainfall and high wind gusts throughout the West on Monday. Accordingly, isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible today across much of the West, where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. After crossing into California on August 20, Tropical Storm “Hilary” marked a historic event as it became only the fourth tropical storm or hurricane to remain intact upon reaching the state, with its effects being the most pronounced in nearly 85 years. Historical comparisons include Hurricane Nora in 1997, the Long Beach tropical storm in 1939, and the San Diego hurricane in 1858. High winds were noted in the mountains east of San Diego and northern Los Angeles County, with gusts at higher elevations ranging from 1.2 to 1.8 km (4 000 to 6 000 feet) exceeding 130 km/h (80 mph). However, the paramount impact came from the torrential rainfall. tropical storm hilary 2220z august 20 2023 goes-west.opti hurricane hilary nhc fcst 12z august 18 2023 Accumulations surpassed 178 mm (7 inches) in parts of northern Los Angeles County within a few days, breaking nearly all prior daily rainfall records for a region unaccustomed to rain in August. San Bernardino County witnessed boulders on roadways, and multiple semi-trucks overturned on Interstate 8 near Gordon’s Well, as recorded by the National Weather Service. Near Forest Falls, California, rainfall from Hilary amounted to 266.9 mm (10.51 inches). Power disruptions affected large swathes of the state, with a peak of 57 000 customers without electricity on Monday morning, August 21. Hilary’s extensive reach led to the closure of parks in three states, disrupted air travel, and resulted in over 1 000 flight cancellations on Sunday. Orange and San Diego counties saw all state beaches and parks shut down. Governor Newsom had proclaimed a state of emergency on the preceding Saturday in anticipation of Hilary’s landfall. Among the widespread flooding, storm chasers reported inundation in Ocotillo, California, early Sunday afternoon. Los Angeles, housing the nation’s largest school district, remained closed on Monday. While the mountain ranges of the west began dissipating Hilary’s circulation, residual heavy rain continued in its wake. Notwithstanding the current challenges, improvements in conditions across southern California are anticipated, especially by later today and into Tuesday. This will pave the way for officials to start the damage assessment process.
Hilary drenches Southern California with record-breaking rainfall as storm wreaks havoc - The remnants of Tropical Storm Hilary, a Category 4 hurricane when it was churning in the Pacific before crashing ashore in Mexico, brought record-breaking rainfall to Southern California, flooding roads and causing mudslides and rock slides as it barreled north.While Hilary was expected to dissipate Monday, forecasters warned rainfall from the storm could cause "life-threatening" flooding across the southwestern U.S. People as far north as Idaho were warned the storm could cause flooding in their areas.Hilary was downgraded to a tropical storm prior to making landfall over Baja California, Mexico, Sunday before becoming a post-tropical cyclone early Monday morning. "We are not out of the woods yet," Brian Ferguson, deputy director of the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services, told CBS News on Monday. "The back end of this storm is still impacting us. We could still see mudslides today as that ground gets saturated." Flooding was impacting many areas and numerous rock and mudslides were reported. The National Weather Service's Los Angeles office said on social media that "virtually all rainfall daily records" for the area were broken as of 3 a.m. PDT Monday. nHilary was the first tropical storm to hit Southern California in 84 years. It dumped more than half the average annual rain on some desert and mountain areas, including Palm Springs, which saw nearly 3 inches of rain by Sunday evening. Tens of thousands of people across Southern California had no power due to the storm and Palm Springs lost 911 service Sunday night, CBS News Los Angeles reported. The station said Hilary's outskirts were still lingering over greater Los Angeles and battering some regions with heavy rain early Monday morning. "Hilary is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across portions of southeast California and southern Nevada through Monday, with isolated storm total amounts up to 12 inches," the center said. "Continued flash and urban flooding is expected."What's more, 1 to 5 inches of rain was expected across portions of Oregon and Idaho through Tuesday morning "resulting in localized, some significant, flash flooding," the center added.In Nevada, officials remain concerned about dangerous flooding across the western Mojave Desert, which is at high risk for flash flooding, "an exceedingly rare occurrence," the weather service's office in Las Vegas said Sunday on social media.Southern California was experiencing heavy rain in Los Angeles and surrounding counties, CBS News Los Angeles reported.Mount Wilson in Angeles National Forest recorded over 8.5 inches of rain as of 7 a.m. PDT, the top amount reported by the weather service's Los Angeles office. Beverly Hills recorded 4.8 inches, and downtown LA recorded nearly 3 inches. The National Weather Service said Ventura County was experiencing life-threatening flooding and San Bernardino, Riverside and nearby mountains were at high risk of flash floods. San Bernardino and Riverside Counties issued evacuation orders and Orange County issued evacuation warnings.
Forecasters say ‘virtually all’ daily rainfall records broken in Los Angeles - Forecasters in Los Angeles said Monday that “virtually all” of the city’s daily rainfall records have been broken as the storm Hilary, now a post-tropical cyclone, hit Southern California on Sunday, bringing historic rainfall, flooding and mudslides to the area. The National Weather Service (NWS) of Los Angeles said totals for Hilary have broken “virtually all rainfall daily records,” as of 3 a.m. Monday, according to a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. The local NWS said 7.04 inches of rain fell in Lewis Ranch over a two-day period, while Lake Palmdale had 5.98 inches and the University of California, Los Angeles, had 4.26. The storm made landfall Sunday along Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula, around 150 miles south of Ensenada, Mexico. As it moved through Tijuana on Sunday, improvised homes on the hillsides south of the U.S. border were threatened by the flooding. By Sunday night, the storm moved over San Diego and north toward inland desert areas. Hilary is the first tropical storm to hit Southern California in 84 years, bringing with it more than half of the state’s yearly rain average.The National Hurricane Center in Miami downgraded the storm Monday morning, though “life-threatening and locally catastrophic flooding” is still expected in parts of the southwestern U.S. Another 2-4 inches of rain is expected in parts of Southern California and southern Nevada on Monday, which would bring its total rainfall amounts to 12 inches, the National Hurricane Center said. The storm has flooded roadways, downed trees and prompted mudslides in parts of Southern California, where photos showed cars stranded in the middle of roads. Some parts of the area experienced power outages as a result, with the city of Palm Springs reporting the 911 systemwas down.
California utilities work to restore power after Tropical Storm Hilary -- California utilities are working to restore power after Tropical Storm Hilary blew through Southern California, causing solar generation to plummet as storm clouds covered much of the state. Hilary weakened from a hurricane to a tropical storm before it made landfall Aug. 20 on the northern Baja California Peninsula and later moved into Southern California."After moving inland across Southern California late Sunday, moisture associated with Hilary is forecast to continue streaming northward through the Intermountain West [Aug. 21]," the US National Weather Service said in its Aug. 21 daily discussion.Several areas in Southern California reached new low temperature records Aug. 20 and set daily precipitation records. Lake Cuyamaca received 4.11 inches of rain, breaking a 1984 record, while San Diego received 1.82 inches of rain, breaking a record from 1906, according to the weather service. In Palm Springs, 3.18 inches of rain fell Aug. 20, bringing the monthly total to 3.1 inches above normal, according to the weather service.At the peak outages, there were roughly 500,000 customers without power, according to utilities. There were more than 51,000 outages across California as of 1pm CT Aug. 21.SCE had 10,643 customers without power as of 9:30am PT Aug. 21, down from 380,154 Aug. 18, Monford said.The storm caused a considerable amount of wind damage across Pacific Gas and Electric service territory that caused a total of 68,100 customers to lose power, spokesperson Denny Boyles said. The majority of the remaining roughly 12,000 outages were expected to be restored Aug. 21."Most of the severe impacts from the Tropical Storm happened south and east of our territory," Boyles said.San Diego Gas & Electric has about 15,000 customers without power at the peak of outages and most were restored without a few hours, spokesperson Candace Hadley said. By 10:30am PT Aug. 21, there were about 100 storm-related outages remaining.
Tropical Storm Hilary left California desert roads covered in water and mud. Now it’s threatening Oregon and Idaho - (AP) — Hilary, the first tropical storm to hit Southern California in 84 years, flooded roads, toppled trees and forced a rescue by bulldozer of more than a dozen older residents trapped by mud in a care home Monday as it marched northward, prompting flood watches and warnings in half a dozen states. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Hilary had lost much of its steam and only vestiges of the storm were heading over the Rocky Mountains, but it warned that “continued life-threatening and locally catastrophic flooding” was expected over portions of the Southwestern U.S., following record-breaking rainfall. Forecasters said the threat for flooding in states farther north on Monday was highest across much of southeastern Oregon into the west-central mountains of Idaho, with potential thunderstorms and localized torrential rains on Tuesday. Hilary first slammed into Mexico’s arid Baja California Peninsula as a hurricane, causing one death and widespread flooding before becoming a tropical storm, one of several potentially catastrophic natural events affecting California on Sunday. Besides the tropical storm, which produced tornado warnings, there were wildfires and a moderate earthquake north of Los Angeles. So far, no deaths, serious injuries or extreme damages have been reported in the state, though officials warned that risks remain, especially in the mountainous regions where the wet hillsides could unleash mudslides. In one dramatic scene, rescue officials in the desert community of Cathedral City, near Palm Springs, drove a bulldozer through mud to the swamped care home and rescued 14 residents by scooping them up and carrying them to safety, Fire Chief Michael Contreras said. They were among 46 rescues the city performed between late Sunday night and the next afternoon from mud and water standing up to 5 feet (1.5 meters.) “We were able to put the patients into the scoop. It’s not something that I’ve ever done in my 34 years as a firefighter, but disasters like this really cause us to have to look at those means of rescue that aren’t in the book and that we don’t do everyday,” he said at a news conference. To the northwest in the San Bernardino Mountains, crews worked to clear mud that blocked the homes of about 800 residents, Cal Fire Battalion Chief Alison Hesterly said. In the mountain community of Oak Glen, Brooke Horspool helped dig out a home surrounded by about 4 feet (1.2 meters) of mud to free a couple, including an older man with medical issues.San Bernardino County first responders also were continuing to rescue some 30 people who became stranded when the Santa Ana River overflowed near Seven Oaks, another mountain community. Authorities said boulders in the flow made it too dangerous to send boats so the people stayed overnight.
Four states broke rainfall records because of Tropical Storm Hilary -- As Tropical Storm Hilary battered the West Coast and the southwestern U.S. with rain and flash flooding, four states — Idaho, Montana, Nevada and Oregon — broke their rainfall records, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Weather Prediction Center.In Nevada, the record more than doubled, to 9.20 inches, while Montana, Idaho and Oregon all got up to an inch more rain compared to the previous records. A tropical cyclone like Hilary's setting rainfall records in four states is highly unusual, and only two other single tropical systems have set rainfall records that came close to affecting as many states. Carla in 1961 set rainfall records across Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan, and Kathleen in 1976 set records across California, Oregon and Idaho.The widespread rain was the result of Hilary’s rare path through the states, where it first hit California after having made landfall on Mexico and then traveled almost due north into the West and the northern Rockies.Forecasters had predicted that because of the high amounts of deep tropical moisture transported into the region, record-setting rainfall would be likely, breaking daily records, monthly records and even state records.For Idaho, the previous record-setter was Olivia in 1982. Montana’s and Oregon’s records were from the same tropical system, Kathleen, in 1976. Nevada had the oldest record of the four states, from an unnamed tropical system in 1906. The state record for California, at 17.76 inches also from Kathleen in 1976, still stands after Hilary.Hilary’s setting records in four states brings the number of new records up to nine in just the past six years, and research continues to attribute heavier rainfall rates and amounts produced by tropical cyclones to climate change.That means historic rainfall could become more common, and since 2017, five other states have broken records because of tropical systems.Hurricane Harvey set the Texas record in 2017 when it dropped 60.58 inches of rain over the state. Hurricane Florence in 2018 set records across both North Carolina and South Carolina; Barry in 2019 dropped a record amount of rain, more than 16 inches, over Arkansas; and Minnesota got record rainfall from Cristobal in 2020, when remnants dropped 5.06 inches over the state.
Remnants of Hurricane Hilary may eventually soak Michigan; Here’s how - The path of Hurricane Hilary’s remnant rain is going to be fairly amazing. The current upper-air flow shows part of Michigan will end up with rain related to the former hurricane. Right now on this Monday morning, the rain from what was Hurricane Hilary is moving quickly northward. Hilary is officially no longer termed a tropical system, but it still has some of the tropical moisture content that came with it when it was a hurricane. Now the heavy rain is actually tracking into an area that can really use rain. The rain is falling over large areas of the wildfire regions of the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada. In the end the remnant rains are going to be a good thing for the forest fires in the northern Rockies. Here’s a forecast model that shows the moisture amount around 10,000 feet up in the atmosphere. The arrow shows the blob of moisture from Hilary and it’s movement through this Friday morning. The moisture is going to move to the North Dakota/Minnesota/Canada border by Wednesday and then slide down into at least the northeast half of Lower Michigan Thursday. This moisture in the air doesn’t directly turn into rain. If there is an upper-air disturbance that coincides with the tropical moisture we will get a clump of thunderstorms. This should be the case in Michigan for Wednesday and Thursday. Here’s a model forecast showing the clumps of thunderstorms that will track toward Michigan on those days. Notice they move in from the same direction in the upper-air flow which is out of the northwest. tropical Rainfall forecast in six-hour increments from 8 p.m. Tuesday to 8 a.m. Friday. It looks like three clumps of thunderstorms could be reasoned to be from remnant moisture of Hilary. The first clump comes into the U.P. Tuesday night. The second clump comes into northern Lower Michigan Wednesday night. The third spurt of storms could hit eastern and southeast Lower Michigan sometime Thursday. When we get into some storms in the next few days just think about the trip that moisture has taken from the tropical Pacific to Arizona and California to the northern Rockies, across southern Canada and into Michigan. That’s quite a trip for just some thunderstorms.
Will Hurricane Hilary affect the Mahoning Valley? -- Obviously, Hilary is going to bring heavy rainfall to many locations in the western U.S. In fact, some locations will receive a year’s worth of rainfall in only a few days. However, a question you might be asking is: will any of this moisture make it toward our area? The notion that any of this moisture would make it to our area might seem ludicrous on the surface. However, a unique weather pattern over the United States will make that scenario a possibility this week. First, to set the stage, the video loop below shows water vapor imagery over the United States. The green and blue colors represent areas of high water vapor content (clouds and rain) while the yellow and orange colors represent dry air. A strong region of high pressure in the central part of the U.S. is deflecting the moisture from Hilary to the north and east. The result is a conveyor belt of moisture throughout the western United States and into the northern Great Plains. While the tropical storm is anomalous, the weather pattern in the central U.S. is not. This pattern is called a “ring of fire”. The “fire” in this case refers to showers and thunderstorms that revolve around the area of high pressure. This typically results in precipitation along the periphery of the high-pressure system and little to no precipitation near the high pressure. The 7-day precipitation forecast from the National Weather Service reflects this. While the forecast is still somewhat uncertain, it does appear that some of the moisture left over from the remnants of Hurricane Hilary will impact the Valley. The Storm Team 27 Future Tracker shows the precipitation moving into the area by the end of the week. Thankfully, the forecast precipitation by week’s end will help to keep the extreme heat out of the Valley.
USA Hurricane Center Tracking 5 Atlantic Disturbances At the time of writing, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking five disturbances in the Atlantic. One unnamed disturbance is in the Gulf of Mexico and has an 80 percent chance of cyclone formation in 48 hours, as of 8am EDT, the NHC site outlined. “Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the central Gulf of Mexico,” a statement posted on the NHC site this morning noted. “Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form before it reaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline on Tuesday,” the statement added. “Interests in southern Texas and northern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings are likely to be issued later today,” the statement continued. Another unnamed disturbance is situated in the eastern tropical Atlantic and has a 40 percent chance of cyclone formation within 48 hours, as of 8am EDT, according to the NHC site. “Showers and thunderstorms over the Cabo Verde Islands and portions of the tropical eastern Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave,” the statement on the NHC site said. “Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic,” it added. The NHC site is also tracking tropical storms Franklin, Gert, and Emily. As of 5am AST, tropical storm Franklin had maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour and a 12 mile per hour westerly movement and tropical storm Gert had maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and a nine mile per hour westerly movement, the NHC site showed. Tropical storm Emily had maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and a 12 mile per hour west-northwest movement, the NHC site highlighted. In a statement posted on its website earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revealed that scientists at its climate prediction center had increased their prediction for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level of activity. NOAA said in the statement that its forecasters had increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent, highlighting that the organization’s previous outlook in May predicted a 30 percent chance of this. The likelihood of near-normal activity has decreased to 25 percent, from the 40 percent chance projected in May, NOAA outlined. In the statement, NOAA said its update to the 2023 outlook calls for between 14 and 21 named storms (winds of 39mph or greater). Of these, six to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74mph or greater), and of these, two to five could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater), NOAA projected in the statement.
Tropical Storm Franklin dumps heavy rains on Dominican Republic - (UPI) -- Tropical Storm Franklin made landfall in the Dominican Republic Wednesday morning and heavy rain is expected to pound the entire island of Hispaniola throughout the day, forecasters said. According to the 11 a.m. summary from the National Hurricane Center, Franklin is moving northward over the mountainous terrain of the Dominican Republic, with the heaviest showers happening along the south-central coast of the island. "It is assumed that the maximum winds have decreased now that the center is over land and the initial intensity is set at 35 knots (about 40 mph)," the summary said. "Franklin's speed has picked up a bit, and it is moving toward the north at 11 knots (more than 12 mph)." Forecasters said the storm continues to move northward through a "break in the subtropical ridge," but it is expected to turn northeastward in the next 24-36 hours. At that point, forecasters said, it will be positioned near the southern extent of a large mid-latitude trough over the western Atlantic." The center said that an Atlantic ridge is expected to strengthen over the next three days, which will block Franklin's eastward march, forcing it to turn north. Forecasters are predicting, though, that Franklin will strengthen once it's back over water and become a hurricane over the next 72 hours.
Tropical Storm Franklin slams Dominican Republic with life-threatening flooding -- Tropical Storm Franklin lashed the Dominican Republic on Wednesday as it crashed ashore on the southern coast with torrential rains triggering major concerns of life-threatening flash flooding across Hispaniola. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the Dominican Republic, Haiti and the islands of Turks and Caicos. Tropical Storm Franklin is about 65 miles to the south-southwest of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic and 180 miles south of Grand Turk Island. Tropical Storm Franklin has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph with higher gusts and is moving to the north at 13 mph. At last check, the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located inland over the Dominican Republic. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later Wednesday, followed by a northeast to east-northeast motion with a decrease in forward speed Thursday and Friday, the NHC said. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will move off the north coast of the Dominican Republic later Wednesday and then move over the southwestern Atlantic into weekend. Rainfall amounts of 6-12 inches will be possible across the Dominican Republic. In Haiti, 2-4 inches is likely with locally higher amounts near 8 inches, mainly across eastern portions. Turks and Caicos could see up to 3 inches, mainly across the eastern islands. Puerto Rico will also feel the effects of the tropical storm, with expected rainfall up to an inch, with isolated higher amounts of 4 inches through Wednesday night. The forecast weakens Franklin as it crosses over the mountains of Hispaniola. It is expected to reintensify and become a hurricane once back over the open ocean. In the short term, the forecast cone takes Franklin to the north-northeast Thursday and Friday and away from land. Franklin's long range outlook is complex with forecast charts struggling to get a consensus on Franklin's later path. But latest guidance suggests Franklin could intensify into a Category 2 hurricane by Sunday or Monday, and those in Bermuda should continue to pay close attention to Franklin's updated forecasts.
Tropical Storm Harold makes landfall in South Texas, bringing welcome rain and cooler temperatures (AP) — Thousands of homes and businesses in the South Texas city of Corpus Christi are without power Tuesday after the state’s first tropical storm of the hurricane season made landfall, bringing strong winds, welcome rain and cooler temperatures following months of hot, dry weather. Tropical Storm Harold, which never reached hurricane status, made landfall about 10 a.m. near South Padre Island on the Texas Gulf coast, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Joshua Schroeder in nearby Brownsville. “Although it formed over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, it moved so quickly it just didn’t have time to intensify into a hurricane,”“There’s pockets of heavy rainfall, 2 to 4 inches (5 to 10 centimeters) and isolated areas are seeing up to 6 inches (15 centimeters),” Schroeder said. “But we’ve been very dry down here in South Texas and this (rain) will be beneficial.” Dry conditions have prevailed in South Texas for months and in some areas for years, according to Cory Mottice, the Warning Coordination Meteorologist for the NWS in Corpus Christi. Corpus Christi has received about 3 inches (7.5 centimeters) of rain so far and it has been in a drought for about two months, Mottice said, referring to data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. Over in Webb County, which includes the city of Laredo, which has been in a drought for two years, little more than a quarter of an inch (6 millimeters) of rain fell, he said. The National Weather Service recorded winds of up to 50 miles per hour (80 kilometers per hour) in Corpus Christi.
Tropical Storm “Harold” hits South Texas, becoming the first 2023 landfall in US - Tropical Storm “Harold” — the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in the US for 2023, hit South Texas on Tuesday, August 22, 2023, delivering torrential rains and localized flash floods in areas along the Mexico border. This sudden impact came mere hours after its upgrade from a tropical depression on its trajectory across the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm “Harold” made landfall on Padre Island, Texas at around 15:00 UTC on August 22, 2023, within just 12 hours of its designation as a tropical storm. At the time of landfall, the system had maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph) and minimum central pressure of 998 hPa. Post landfall, Harold’s wind intensity began to diminish, relegating it to a tropical depression by Tuesday afternoon (LT). As the storm proceeds, it is expected to transform into a tropical rainstorm and move northwestward along the Rio Grande River on Wednesday. 25 to 100 mm (1 – 4 inches) of rainfall has already been recorded across numerous locales in South Texas. Specifically, Corpus Christi reported an accumulation of 120 mm (4.74 inches) as of 03:00 local time on Wednesday. Though the primary rainband ceased along the South Texas coast on Tuesday evening, areas northwest of Laredo, Texas, continued to witness flooding downpours. Harold’s heaviest rainfall is anticipated in the mountainous terrains of northern Mexico and potentially in Texas’s Big Bend area along the Rio Grande River. Harold is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm (1 to 2 inches) with isolated higher amounts of 100 mm (4 inches) across the Big Bend and Trans Pecos regions of Texas as well as southern New Mexico through tonight. Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding are possible. In far northern Mexico, rainfall amounts of 100 to 150 mm (4 to 6 inches), with local amounts of 250 mm (10 inches) are expected today. Scattered instances of flash flooding are expected with landslides possible.
Harold downgraded to tropical depression after making landfall in Texas -Tropical Storm Franklin lashed the Dominican Republic on Wednesday as it crashed ashore on the southern coast with torrential rains triggering major concerns of life-threatening flash flooding across Hispaniola. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the Dominican Republic, Haiti and the islands of Turks and Caicos. Tropical Storm Franklin is about 65 miles to the south-southwest of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic and 180 miles south of Grand Turk Island. Tropical Storm Franklin has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph with higher gusts and is moving to the north at 13 mph. At last check, the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located inland over the Dominican Republic. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later Wednesday, followed by a northeast to east-northeast motion with a decrease in forward speed Thursday and Friday, the NHC said. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will move off the north coast of the Dominican Republic later Wednesday and then move over the southwestern Atlantic into weekend. Rainfall amounts of 6-12 inches will be possible across the Dominican Republic. In Haiti, 2-4 inches is likely with locally higher amounts near 8 inches, mainly across eastern portions. Turks and Caicos could see up to 3 inches, mainly across the eastern islands. Puerto Rico will also feel the effects of the tropical storm, with expected rainfall up to an inch, with isolated higher amounts of 4 inches through Wednesday night. The forecast weakens Franklin as it crosses over the mountains of Hispaniola. It is expected to reintensify and become a hurricane once back over the open ocean. In the short term, the forecast cone takes Franklin to the north-northeast Thursday and Friday and away from land. Franklin's long range outlook is complex with forecast charts struggling to get a consensus on Franklin's later path. But latest guidance suggests Franklin could intensify into a Category 2 hurricane by Sunday or Monday, and those in Bermuda should continue to pay close attention to Franklin's updated forecasts. Harold Downgraded to Tropical Depression After Storm Causes Floods in Texas - -- Harold was downgraded to a tropical depression after making landfall as a tropical storm on Padre Island, Texas, on Tuesday morning, capping an extraordinarily busy 48 hours for an Atlantic hurricane season that saw three other storms form in quick succession. Harold pummeled parts of southern Texas with heavy rain on Tuesday, and was expected to deliver up to six inches of rainfall in isolated areas through early Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory. By the afternoon, the storm had already delivered up to two inches of rain in several places, including at Corpus Christi International Airport, said Bob Oravec, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. Around seven inches had fallen on Mustang Island, east of the airport, he said. By Tuesday evening, the storm had weakened to a tropical depression but heavy rain continued, forecasters said. In Corpus Christi, several roads were closed because of flooding, the city said, urging residents to drive slowly, turn on headlights and find alternate routes. Billy Delgado, emergency management coordinator for Corpus Christi, said there were no fatalities or injuries, and the majority of calls the city is receiving are about road closures and fallen trees. Meteorologists said the storm made landfall around 10 a.m. local time on Padre Island, a popular tourist area known for its beaches. Videos posted to social media appeared to show darkening skies and palm trees and street signs teetering in the wind. By 1 p.m., the core of the storm had moved inland, forecasters said. Harold was moving west-northwest at around 21 miles per hour toward southern Texas and northern Mexico, they said. Several areas remained under tropical storm warnings and watches. Harold, which follows the storms Emily, Franklin and Gert, is the first storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season to make landfall. More than 25,000 businesses and homes in the state were without power as of around 4 p.m. local time, according to poweroutage.us. Share of customers without power by county
Heat lingers across US as officials urge caution and power conservation - Sweltering temperatures are lingering in a large swath of the central US, causing misery from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes.Record high temperatures were recorded on Sunday in Texas and other states. People were told to chug extra water while mowing lawns or exercising outdoors, and to check on neighbors to ensure air conditioning is available. The extreme heat prompted Texas’s electric power grid manager to ask residents to voluntarily conserve power for three hours on Sunday night.The Dallas-Fort Worth area was prepared to reach 110F (43.3C) on Sunday after hitting 108F (42.2C) on Saturday, said National Weather Service meteorologist Sarah Barnes. The record high for those dates was 107F (41.7C), set in 2011.The area is not cooling off enough at night, Barnes said.“That’s really going to contribute to an increased risk of heat-related illnesses,” Barnes said on Sunday. “That’s the main concern when it comes to people and the heat.”The electric reliability council of Texas (Ercot) on Sunday asked the state’s 30 million residents to voluntarily reduce power use from 7pm to 10pm central daylight time because of “extreme temperatures, continued high demand and unexpected loss of thermal generation”.Ercot’s request for voluntary power conservation was the second such plea in the past three days. The agency said it was not in emergency operations. Many residents still view the power grid nervously more than two and a half years after a deadly winter blackout.Meanwhile, parts of Texas’s Gulf coast were also put under a warning for what could be a tropical storm forecast to move ashore on Tuesday.The heatwave causing misery is just the latest to punish the US this year.The entire globe has simmered to record heat in both June and July. And if that’s not enough, smoke from wildfires, floods and droughts have caused problems globally.The National Weather Service issued an excessive heat warning on Sunday for parts of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska. Heat advisories or watches were also in place in parts of Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota and South Dakota.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports just 600 to 700 heat deaths annually in the United States. But experts say the mishmash of ways that more than 3,000 counties calculate heat deaths means the public doesn’t really know how many people die from heat in the US each year.
Deadly heat wave in the central US strains infrastructure, transportation and the Texas power grid (AP) — Deadly heat that has gripped Texas for much of the summer has spread into other parts of the central U.S. this week where it is forecast to stay for days, with triple-digit temperatures buckling roads, straining water systems and threatening the power grid of the nation’s energy capitol.With heat warnings and advisories stretching from New Orleans to Minneapolis, the unyielding weather is stressing the systems put in place to keep resources moving and people safe. Just this week, a 1-year-old left in a hot van in Nebraska died, and Louisiana reported 25 heat-related deaths this summer — more than twice the average number in recent years.The heat is expected to become “dangerous to the average person” if they don’t have air conditioning, said Alex Lamers, a warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center. It has felt hotter than 110 degrees (43.3 C) in cities in Texas and Louisiana more often than at any time since World War II, Lamers said. The brunt of the enduring heat has hit states from Florida to New Mexico, he said.Texas’ grid — which failed during a deadly winter storm in 2021 — has so far held up with no outages in the face of unrelenting heat.The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which oversees the grid, asked residents twice last week to conserve energy because of high demand and low reserves. The agency issued a weather watch that’s in place through Aug. 27.But there are risks the longer this drags on, said Alison Silverstein, a Texas-based independent energy analyst and former adviser to the state’s energy regulator. She compared it to a car overheating as the system tries to keep up with weeks of record-breaking demand.“At least your car on a long trip has a chance to rest overnight and cool off,” she said. “A lot of these plants have been running nonstop, or pretty close to it, since June.”
See you on Copacabana? Unusually balmy weather hits Brazil in a rare winter heat wave – (AP) — Summer is still four months away in the Southern Hemisphere but Brazil is contending with a balmy winter, with record high temperatures and dry weather across much of the country. The rare heat wave engulfed 19 of Brazil’s 26 states on Thursday, as well as the capital of Brasilia, according to the National Meteorological Institute, bringing also low humidity for the country that’s home to the Amazon tropical rainforest. Beachgoers hit many of the country’s famous sandy stretches, including Rio de Janeiro’s Copacabana. Four state capitals recorded the year’s highest temperature on Wednesday. Cuiabá, in central-western Brazil, the highs reached 41.8 degrees Celsius (107.2 degrees Fahrenheit). Residents in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, Brazil’s two most populous cities, were also hit by the heat wave. In Rio, temperatures reached 38.7 C (101.7 F) on Thursday — the city’s second hottest day of 2023. Authorities said northeastern states of Bahia and Piauí saw the air humidity dropped below 20% and the government recommended people avoid physical activities and stay indoors during the hottest times of the day. Last month, Brazil experienced its hottest July since official measurements began in 1961, reflecting the global record, with the average temperature measuring 23 C (73.4 F) . Climatologist Jose Marengo from the national disaster monitoring center said warmer days during winter are typically caused by a high-pressure anomaly that forms a dome over a stretch of states, including the southeast and southern Amazon. “With clear skies and abundant sunshine, the ground heats up, initiating a process that leads to the formation of a warm air bubble that prevents the entry of humidity,” he told The Associated Press.
Wildfires rage across British Columbia, forcing tens of thousands to flee their homes - Wildfires are tearing through wide swathes of the western Canadian province of British Columbia as the country confronts the most devastating wildfire season in its history. According to the BC Wildfire Service, there are 382 active wildfires burning across the province. This includes 157 deemed out of control, and 14 “of note,” meaning they are highly visible or threatening public safety. Over the past couple of days, the number of people under evacuation orders has soared to more than 15,000. An additional 35,000 more are on evacuation alert. Distressing scenes of chaos, confusion, and catastrophic damage are being shared on social media by affected residents. In some instances, footage was captured as they fled for their lives. Numerous homes and other properties have been destroyed by the flames, with the precise number unknown. Despite the scope of the fires, there have been no reported civilian deaths reported so far. Eleven of the wildfires of note are burning in the Kamloops and Southeast regions. These are some of the hottest places in western Canada, where record-breaking temperatures were registered this summer. In the Central Okanagan, the McDougall Creek wildfire, first identified last Tuesday northwest of the city of Kelowna, has exploded in size to 110 square kilometres. Parts of the area surrounding Kelowna, a region with a population of 235,000, have been badly devastated. Ten thousand residents have been forced to evacuate, including students at the local university and residents of seven care homes. Footage of escaping locals jumping into Okanagan Lake as the flames travelled down the ridge from West Kelowna has been shared widely on social media. Flights have been cancelled and the airspace closed at Kelowna International Airport to prioritize aerial firefighting. Ten kilometres south of Kamloops, the massive Adams Complex wildfires continue to rage out of control. The largest of the fires, the Bush Creek East fire, which has been burning since mid-July, has exploded to 300 square kilometres in size. Friday was declared by the regional district as the most devastating wildfire day in its history. Some 3,500 residents in several communities around the Shuswap Lake were evacuated amid conditions described by one local as a “scene of Armageddon.” In Cathedral Grove National Park, southwest of the town of Keremeos, the out-of-control Crater Creek fire has ballooned to 410 square kilometres. Evacuation alerts and orders have been issued for nearby First Nations communities. On Wednesday, 70 people under evacuation order were rescued from a remote guest home when the only road access for escape was cut off by the raging fire. In the Fraser Canyon, wildfires are again ablaze near Lytton, the village destroyed by wildfire in 2021, when two people were killed and several injured. Two years later, many of the town’s 200 residents are still displaced. An order to restrict non-essential travel to fire-affected areas has been issued to ensure accommodation is available for evacuees and emergency personnel. Air quality in the areas near the fires is extremely dangerous, rated at the maximum 10+ on the Air Quality Health Index—meaning very high risk. In mid-July, a nine-year-old boy in the town of Hundred Mile House tragically suffered a fatal asthma attack that his parents suspect was exacerbated by wildfire smoke. Emergency accommodation is becoming scarce. Sympathetic residents are generously offering their homes to victims of the wildfires. Out of those who have lost their homes, many are renters who will have no other choice but to move to larger urban centres, which have a near zero percent rental vacancy rate and little affordable housing. Many uninsurable properties have been lost and those homeowners left without the means to replace their house.
The US and China must unite to fight the climate crisis, not each other | Bernie Sanders -- Climate change is a global crisis and cannot be solved by any one country alone. If the United States, China and other industrialized countries do not come together to dramatically decrease greenhouse gas emissions, the world we leave our children and future generations will become increasingly unhealthy and uninhabitable. Tragically, the cooperation required to address this existential threat is being undermined by hawks in both the United States and China who are moving us toward a disastrous cold war. Now is the time for a radical rethinking of geopolitics to reflect the reality that international cooperation is not only in the best interests of all countries, but is absolutely necessary for the survival of the planet. Here’s the reality. The last eight years have been the eight hottest on record. This year is on track to be the hottest year in recorded history, and this past July was the hottest month on record. Across the United States, July broke more than 3,200 daily temperature records and dozens of American cities broke or tied their previous daily temperature records three or more times. Phoenix experienced 31 days in a row at or above 110F (43.3C), 13 days longer than the previous record. El Paso, Miami, Austin and many other places also suffered under record-breaking stretches of extreme heat. Smoke from unprecedented wildfires in Canada enveloped US cities and drifted halfway around the world, causing dangerously unhealthy air quality. Vermont, my home state, experienced floods that damaged 4,000 homes and 800 businesses, the state’s worst natural disaster since 1927. In Maui, Hawaii, rapidly moving fires destroyed 2,700 structures in historic Lahaina and took more than 100 lives, making it the deadliest wildfire in the US in more than a century. But it’s not just the US that is dealing with record-breaking heatwaves and enormous climate-caused devastation. China experienced record-high temperatures last month, including the country’s all-time temperature record of 126F (52.2C), and recent flooding has killed about 100 people, destroyed nearly 200,000 homes, displaced some 1.5 million people and caused more than $13bn in damage. From Tokyo to Rome to Tunis to Tirana, cities across Asia, Europe and north Africa experienced their hottest days on record. In Iran, the heat index hit 158F (70C), testing the limits of human survival. In our own hemisphere, Cuba, the Dominican Republic and El Salvador all saw temperature records fall. It’s winter right now in South America, but that hasn’t stopped temperatures from exceeding 100F (37.7C) in some places, a heating event a climate historian labeled “one of the extreme events the world has ever seen”. And it’s not just that temperatures have been soaring on land. Our oceans have never been warmer. Right now, 44% of the world’s oceans are experiencing a marine heatwave. The Mediterranean Sea is experiencing its hottest temperatures on record, more than 9F hotter than average in some places. Off the coast of Newfoundland, waters are as much as 18F above normal. South of Miami, waters reached 101F (38.3C). You’re supposed to find temperatures like that in a hot tub, not the ocean. This warming could further devastate coral reefs, fisheries and marine ecosystems around the world.
Chaos Erupts When Republican Candidates Are Asked if They Believe in Climate Change - The New York Times - It was an unusual litmus test for a Republican primary debate, one that quickly descended into personal attacks and obfuscation: The candidates were asked whether humans had contributed to climate change. There is no scientific dispute that the answer is yes, but hardly any of the Republican candidates gave a straight answer. Before they could raise their hands, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida broke in. “Look, we’re not schoolchildren,” he said, rejecting the idea of a show-of-hands response. “Let’s have the debate.” The line of questioning from the moderators, Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum, was about the devastating wildfires in Maui and a recent tropical storm that caused flooding in Southern California. They mentioned rising ocean temperatures and played a clip from a young conservative, who asked how the Republicans running for president could assuage young people’s concerns about climate change. Mr. DeSantis, a distant second in the polls to former President Donald J. Trump, who skipped the debate, deflected and criticized President Biden’s response to the wildfires in Hawaii. Vivek Ramaswamy, the millionaire entrepreneur whose campaign has dabbled in conspiracy theories, seized on the moment to deny the scientific consensus on climate change. “Let us be honest as Republicans — I’m the only person on the stage who isn’t bought and paid for, so I can say this — the climate change agenda is a hoax,” he said. Mr. Ramaswamy added, “And so the reality is more people are dying of bad climate change policies than they are of actual climate change.” Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor, admonished Mr. Ramaswamy, whom he sparred with frequently throughout the night. “I’ve had enough already tonight of a guy who sounds like ChatGPT,” Mr. Christie said, referring to the artificial intelligence chatbot. He then compared Mr. Ramaswamy’s frequent mentions of his skinny frame and his “odd” last name to the rhetoric former President Barack Obama used when he first vaulted onto the national political stage. “And I’m afraid we’re dealing with the same type of amateur,” he said.
'Down your throat': Biden pushes CCS on polluted places - Environmental justice advocates have long opposed efforts to build carbon capture infrastructure in marginalized communities. Their worries are manifold. Pipelines could burst. Storage sites might leak. Fossil fuel power plants might linger, their life span extended by a technology that captures carbon dioxide but not smog and soot. But the Biden administration has repeatedly linked carbon capture and storage with environmental justice. It has gone as far as to count some CCS spending toward its Justice40 initiative to invest in disadvantaged communities — against the express wishes of its own hand-picked advisory panel on environmental justice. “The vibe that we’ve been getting now for a while is like, this is happening. It’s happening whether you like it or not,” said Irene Burga Márquez, climate justice and clean air program director for GreenLatinos. “Which is not a great starting point. It feels like there’s no room for discussion or flexibility. It’s more like, we’re forcing something down your throat with, like, some sugar.” Minority and poor communities have suffered the brunt of fossil fuel pollution for decades. Now, amid a historic effort to tackle climate change, environmental justice advocates say the government is rushing to embrace solutions that give polluters a lifeline — and draw out the suffering of long-burdened communities. The Biden administration has gone all-in on carbon capture and removal, known collectively as industrial carbon management. President Joe Biden has offered lucrative incentives and demonstration money for the technology through signature bills, and EPA has used carbon capture as the linchpin of its climate rule to cut pollution from power plants. The world’s top researchers say countries will have to extract massive amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in order to prevent catastrophic warming. The U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has found that carbon capture and storage — in which CO2 is captured from the smokestack of a factory or power plant and buried underground permanently — will also be needed to meet global emissions goals. It’s effectively the only way to make deep cuts in emissions from some sectors, like steelmaking. And, the panel says, CCS may be needed to manage carbon from power derived from fossil fuels — which are projected to stay dominant globally until midcentury. But some environmentalists and advocates for fence-line communities fear that both technologies — direct air capture and carbon capture — could prop up a fossil fuel industry that has burdened marginalized areas for decades.
Additional Selections for Funding Opportunity Announcement 2400: Clean Hydrogen Production, Storage, Transport and Utilization to Enable a Net-Zero Carbon Economy (Round 3) | Department of Energy -- www.energy.gov -- details on where some of the so-called green money is going
Why Ambitious U.S. Emissions Reduction Goals Are Increasingly Out of Reach --As the two biggest states in the country, California and Texas have a pivotal role in the battle to slow down climate change. But as the U.S. gets closer to 2030, the pivotal date by which emissions need to be reduced by 45% per the Paris Agreement adopted at the 2015 U.N. Climate Change Conference, the example of both states shows why that goal seems increasingly out of reach. As the biggest oil-producing state and one that is defiantly proud of that status, Texas isn’t doing much to change its role as the country’s biggest emitter of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. Even when it comes to one source of pollution that’s entirely preventable — methane that is wasted through flaring, venting or leaking — the state seems unwilling to take action. As The Slick’s Elliott Woods reports: “While there are no federal or state regulations for methane as a greenhouse gas in Texas, the Railroad Commission — the state’s oil and gas regulator — does have regulations for when flaring is permissible and when it isn’t. But nonpermitted flaring occurs at hundreds of locations across the state, with few consequences for the producers.” Meanwhile, many California leaders, including Gov. Gavin Newsom, have been outspoken about their ambitious approach to curbing climate change, yet the fossil fuel industry and its legislative allies keep getting in the way. For the second time, a bill requiring corporations to report their greenhouse gas emissions – which could set off a wave of similar transparency bills, building pressure on companies to reduce their emissions — could fail in the state’s Legislature thanks to a handful of moderate Democrats, reports The Slick’s Aaron Cantú.Other states don’t seem prepared to regulate new potential sources of emissions — particularly energy-intensive crypto mining. Pennsylvania is seeing the emergence of a bitcoin mining industry, which could lead to a spike in the state’s energy use and emissions, spurred by companies attracted by a sales tax exemption originally intended for data centers. A bill to remove that exemption for crypto players is currently being debated in the state’s Legislature, where it is opposed by the industryand its allies, reports Audrey Carleton.While July was the hottest month on record, accentuating the urgency of the climate crisis, oil and gas majors reported huge second-quarter profits. Though sharply down from its record-breaking earnings a year ago, BP still generated $2.6 billion in profits and a 10% dividend increase for shareholders while Shell reported $5.1 billion in profits and a 15% dividend raise. Earlier this year BP pulled back on its climate commitments, aiming for a less ambitious reduction in coal emissions than it had previously promised.
'White' hydrogen: The hydrogen economy zombie rises again - Just when you thought the hydrogen economy zombie was dead and gone, it rises again, this time in color. Yes, hydrogen comes in many colors these days: green, blue, gray and now white. No, these are not literal colors, but rather marketing tools designed to convince investors, policymakers (think: public subsidies), and the public (think: support of public subsidies) that the hydrogen economy is right around the corner and will be a key to addressing climate change. When burned, of course, hydrogen combines with oxygen to produce water. When manufactured, however, the process can produce a little or a lot of carbon dioxide depending how the manufacturing is done and whether fossil fuels are used as feedstocks. White hydrogen denotes hydrogen occurring naturally in reservoirs in the Earth's crust as a free gas not combined with other elements. Its presence has been known for a long time. But no one believed the reservoirs were numerous enough or large enough to bother extracting. That thinking has changed, and there are now companies actively prospecting for underground hydrogen reservoirs. The trouble is that even if white hydrogen turns out to be plentiful (which is a big if), it will be energy-intensive to extract, store and transport. In reservoirs hydrogen is often mixed with other gases from which it must be separated. And, it is also sometimes found dissolved in liquid and so must be extracted from the liquid after that liquid is pumped to the surface. What will the cost of getting at the pure hydrogen gas be? No one knows for sure because reservoir extraction has never been done on a large scale. Then there is the problem of storage and transport. As one analysis points out, it would take 14 tanker trucks of compressed or liquefied hydrogen to equal the energy content of one tanker of gasoline. And since hydrogen is the smallest molecule in the universe, it leaks from practically anything it is stored in. There is little understanding of how much hydrogen would leak in a pipeline or tanker truck environment. Two scientists interviewed by Reuters suggested that leak rates of 10 percent over the life cycle of hydrogen (extraction, storage, transport and use) would negate any climate benefit because hydrogen gas "reduces the concentration of molecules that destroy the greenhouse gases already there [in the atmosphere], potentially contributing to global warming." In short, the further a hydrogen reservoir is from the ultimate users of hydrogen, the greater the potential for leakage and therefore 1) the less likely its use would be a plus for climate stability and 2) the greater its energy requirement would be for compression and/or liquefaction. For all these reasons, most of the hydrogen in use today is made on the site where it is used, mostly in the oil, chemical and fertilizer industries. And, the vast majority, 98 percent, is made from fossil fuels. So-called green hydrogen (currently under 1 percent of total supply) is generated using electricity from renewable energy sources to separate hydrogen from oxygen in water molecules through a process called electrolysis. Green hydrogen actually takes more energy to produce than is released when the hydrogen is burned. That makes green hydrogen an energy carrier, not an energy source. Blue hydrogen must be placed right alongside "clean coal." Like "clean coal" it involves a promise to sequester underground the carbon emissions from hydrogen made from fossil fuels. The carbon sequestration ploy is what an environmental writer I know calls the "delay and fail strategy." The industry promises to perfect carbon sequestration over time. And, on the way to failing the industry builds a very profitable infrastructure spewing enormous carbon emissions into the air. When the jig is finally up, the industry can claim it tried. But investment that could have gone into cleaner alternatives has been squandered to enrich the fossil fuel industry and further entrench its hold on society.Some sources are touting white hydrogen supplies as "virtually unlimited." Whatever the supply may ultimately be, white hydrogen will be like every other underground resource, limited. There will be easy-to-get resources and these will come to be known as the "sweet spots." And, there will be hard-to-get resources, generally too expensive to bother with. And the hard-to-get hydrogen will constitute the vast majority of resources identified.What the hydrogen enthusiasts are counting on is the ignorance of the public and policymakers about the limits that will dictate hydrogen's role in the energy economy. For now the enthusiasts seem to have the upper hand.
Hardly anyone owns a hydrogen car. California may pay up to $300 million for fuel stations anyway --Electric cars are rolling off production lines, and one in five new cars sold in California this year is battery-powered. “California is showing the world what’s possible,” said Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose plan to phase out fossil fuels and gasoline-powered cars is key to his ambitions of tackling climate change.But as California steers away from the internal combustion engine, the rapid transition is fueling a fight in the Capitol over how large a role hydrogen fuel cells will play in powering the clean cars of the future. Democrats in the state Legislature are debating how much money to give companies to build hydrogen fueling stations. A lobbying group for hydrogen supporters and suppliers, including Chevron, Shell and Toyota, is seeking a designated 30% share of money from the state Clean Transportation Program, amounting to $300 million over the next decade.The program is funded by annual fees paid by California drivers — $2 car registration fees and $4 smog abatement fees. Over the last decade, hydrogen has been earmarked for 20% of its funds. So far, the California Energy Commission has spent $202 million for hydrogen fueling stations. Yet there is still low demand for the cars, with sluggish sales: Only two hydrogen models are available, the Toyota Mirai and Hyundai Nexo, and only 1,767 have been sold in California this year. Last year’s sales declined 20% although sales are up this summer. In all, Californians own only about 12,000 hydrogen-powered cars, compared to more than 760,000 powered by batteries.Like battery-powered cars, hydrogen cars produce no emissions. But the electricity to run their motors uses compressed hydrogen gas, which is mostly derived from natural gas, a fossil fuel.The state’s funding has helped create a network of just 65 hydrogen fueling stations, 20 of them in Los Angeles County. Driving a hydrogen car outside of California is virtually impossible: One other public hydrogen fueling station exists in the U.S., and it’s in Hawaii.The energy commission staff has warned lawmakers that there won’t be enough hydrogen cars on the roads to use new stations already allocated state funds. Stations will triple by 2027 — resulting in four times more than the amount needed to support even the “vehicle manufacturers’ best-case expected volume,” the commission said. They also warned that they haven’t received enough bids from hydrogen station developers to spend all the money the Legislature already has allocated.
DPU approves termination of offshore wind contract - THE MASSACHUSETTS Department of Public Utilities on Wednesday approved without comment the termination of an offshore wind power purchase agreement negotiated between Eversource and Commonwealth Wind and approved by the DPU at the end of last year.Avangrid, the developer behind Commonwealth Wind, sought the termination after it concluded rising inflation, supply chain disruptions, and the war in Ukraine had made it impossible to finance the project under the existing terms of the power purchase agreement.The termination agreementwas negotiated by Avangrid and the state’s three utilities in mid-July, along with a requirement that the wind farm developer pay a $48 million penalty that would be returned to ratepayers of the three utilities.The DPU on Wednesday gave what is called stamp approval to Avangrid’s termination agreement with Eversource, which required a $25.9 million payment to that utility. Presumably, approvals for Avangrid termination agreements with National Grid and Until will be forthcoming shortly. The stamp approval came with no comment from the three DPU commissioners.Approval of the termination agreement came on the same day the DPU approved the rules for the state’s next offshore wind procurement in 2024. That procurement will allow Avangrid to rebid its project again, presumably at a higher price, but it may be slapped with penalty points in the contracting process for signing the termination contract.
As Heat Waves Roast Texas, Batteries Keep Power Grid Humming - A battery boom is helping to stabilize the Texas power grid, offering a template for utilities that want to cut their greenhouse gases even as air conditioners hum wildly during heat waves. The growth of batteries was evident last week when energy storage facilities injected a record amount of power into Texas’ electric system. It was badly needed on an evening when the state’s primary grid operator had called on consumers to conserve energy. “I think it's a really big deal. I think it's underappreciated and under-talked about at this point,” said Doug Lewin, an Austin, Texas-based energy consultant who authors the Texas Energy and Power Newsletter. Without batteries, he said, “I think it's likely that on Thursday night, we would have been in the emergency conditions.” Texas has been at the center of a national debate over how to green the grid without jeopardizing reliability. The region has been battered in recent years by extreme weather events as the state's power sector has undergone large changes, with coal generation falling rapidly and renewable production climbing quickly. Solar, in particular, has helped Texas navigate a prolonged heat wave this summer. Batteries represent the next chapter in Texas’ evolution because they stabilize the grid in the evening, when energy demand is high and solar generation plummets. Texas has installed 2.5 gigawatts of battery capacity over the last five years — about a quarter of total U.S. battery capacity. Only California has installed more. A scorching summer has put Texas’ new battery fleet to the test. The Austin area has recorded 44 consecutive days of temperatures in excess of 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Dallas is in the middle of a 19-day streak of temperatures above 105 F. The searing heating has sent Texans rushing for relief. The use of air conditioners, coupled with population growth, has shattered records for power demand. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which runs the power grid serving 90 percent of the state, said Sunday it has broken its record for power demand 10 times this summer. Grid conditions got particularly tight Thursday, when ERCOT urged residents to conserve electricity between 3 p.m. and 8 p.m. due to high temperatures, elevated power demand and weak wind energy generation, which often picks up in the evening. Power prices surged to $5,000 per kilowatt-hour, the maximum amount allowed by ERCOT. That’s when the batteries stepped in. They discharged 1.8 GW of power onto the grid and sent power prices falling to around $2,700 per megawatt-hour. “It is like two nuclear power plants worth of support for the grid,” said Michael Webber, a professor at the University of Texas, Austin, who studies the power system. “That comes in really handy when you've got scarce conditions, high prices, a power shortfall, that kind of thing.”
How Geopolitics Is Complicating the Move to Clean Energy - The New York Times - The fate of Indonesia’s unrivaled stocks of nickel — a critical mineral used to make batteries for electric vehicles — is caught in the conflict between the United States and China. He is known as the Minister for Everything. From the government offices of Indonesia’s capital to dusty mines on remote islands, Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan commands authority as the nation’s essential power broker. A four-star general turned business magnate turned cabinet officer, Mr. Luhut aspires to transform Indonesia into a hub for the production of electric vehicles. But as he pursues that paramount goal, he and his country are increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical forces beyond their control. Though this archipelago nation has long sidestepped entanglements in ideological rivalries, it is increasingly caught in the conflict between the United States and China. At stake is control over nickel, a mineral used to make batteries for electric cars and motorcycles — a central component of the mission to limit the ravages of climate change.Indonesia boasts the earth’s largest reserves, making it something like the Saudi Arabia of nickel. But harvesting and refining those stocks is largely dependent on investment and technology from Chinese companies. And that has limited Indonesia’s access to the United States. In Washington, the Biden administration has proffered tens of billions of dollars in tax credits to spur electric vehicle manufacturing. To qualify, cars sold in the United States must include an increasing share of parts and materials produced either in domestic factories or in countries deemed friendly to American interests. In recent months, Mr. Luhut — formally Indonesia’s coordinating minister for maritime affairs and investment — has implored the Biden administration for a trade deal covering minerals in an effort to secure his country status as a friendly country. That would generate greater demand for its nickel by making it eligible for the American tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. Companies around the globe would presumably gain incentive to erect smelters and electric vehicle factories in Indonesia, enhancing the nation’s technological prowess, and creating jobs.
Paved paradise: Maps show how much of US cities are parking lots — Nearly one-third of downtown Salt Lake City is dedicated solely to car parking, according to data released by a nonprofit last week. And Salt Lake is far from alone. In Wichita, it’s 35%. In Las Vegas, it’s 32%. In San Bernardino, it’s even worse: 49% of the central city is composed of parking. The data comes from the Parking Reform Network, an organization that works to inform people about the impact of parking on climate change, housing, traffic and more. The group has published 86 maps of cities across the United States, highlighting the space dedicated to parking lots in city centers. On average, in U.S. cities with over 1 million people, 22% of land in the city center is used for parking. Take a look at Salt Lake City, for example. About 29% of downtown is highlighted red, which represents an area that is a designated parking lot. The city even has a few parking structures that span entire blocks. Many of the maps created by Parking Reform Network look similar, from Colorado Springs to Jacksonville, Florida. Parking Reform Network argues that space could be better used for housing, businesses, or public gathering spaces.“This parking is often clustered around main streets, office districts, and historical cores, creating a dead zone around the city’s most valuable and walkable areas that limits residential and commercial growth. Cities with high parking have ample land that could be devoted to building walkable neighborhoods, vibrant parks, or office districts,” the group writes. Of the cities analyzed, those who had the most space dedicated to parking were San Bernardino, California (49%); Arlington, Texas (42%); Lexington, Kentucky (38%); Wichita, Kansas (35%); and Virginia Beach (35%). New York City (1%), Washington DC (3%), Chicago (4%), San Francisco (4%) and Boston (6%) were found to be the top five city centers with the least amount of dedicated parking spaces.
Pennsylvania Battle Over Climate-Warming Crypto Mines Intensifies - The grid of large silver trailers sitting atop a patch of asphalt on the western bank of the Susquehanna River near Berwick, Pennsylvania, might not seem like much upon first glance. Hulking over them are nuclear cooling towers that belong to the Susquehanna Steam Electric Station, next to a web of energy-generating infrastructure. Inside those trailers, however, is a hive of activity — nearly 8,000 mining rigs, or supercomputers, designed to plug away at the algorithm required to mine bitcoin.These rigs constitute the Nautilus Cryptomine, which came partly online in March and aims to be among the “largest, most efficient” bitcoin mines in North America.Nautilus is raising concerns among some environmentalists not just for what it represents — the emergence of a controversial cryptocurrency mining industry in Pennsylvania, which may lead to a spike in the state’s energy use and emissions — but also for how it got there in the first place. The mine opened with the help of a sales tax exemption for data centers, enshrined in law in 2016 and intended to build out a different type of industry: server or data storage farms that, for instance, host cloud capacity. Nautilus and a related firm, Cumulus Data, both associated with the Nautilus mine, are two of eight companies in the state to claim the sales tax exemption, according to the state Department of Revenue. They are the only two crypto-related ventures on the list — but advocates fear that they won’t be the last, should the sales tax exemption, expected to grow from its current $17 million price tag to $90 million by 2027, remain in place as is.In recent years, the commonwealth has seen a steady build-out of energy-intensive mines that generate cryptocurrency. Pennsylvania lacks regulations for this volatile yet burgeoning industry but possesses enough stores of fossil fuel to see it compete with crypto-heavy states such as Texas and New York; some environmentalists fear what the commonwealth could look like if it becomes a cryptocurrency hub.Cryptocurrency mining, when fossil fuel powered, contributes to air pollution while hurting the state’s efforts to reach its climate goals. OneEastern Pennsylvania plant, run on waste coal, saw its emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide, two ingredients of ground-level smog, triple in a year after being purchased by a crypto-mining company.“Pennsylvanians in government, industry and environmental groups, as well as ordinary citizens, have worked hard for clean air,” said Charles McPhedran, senior attorney in the clean energy program at Earthjustice, in a May testimony before the House Environmental Resources and Energy Committee. “The last thing we need is a new source of greenhouse gases and local air pollution.”
Something stinks about coal seam gas waste disposal - Independent Australia -- Coal seam gas mining is expanding across southwestern Queensland and into central Queensland. The existing and planned CSG production area in Queensland has increased by 8% since 2019, with current projection of about 22,000 CSG wells of which about 8,600 are already in place. The industry is attempting expansion in New South Wales. As a result, there is a greater need to take a deeper look at the issue of CSG waste in all its forms. CSG waste is likely finding its way into the food chain and Murray Darling Basin via soil products, irrigation, road spraying, managed aquifer recharge and uncontrolled/deliberate releases in or near waterways.The report on Hazardous Waste in Australia 2021 (HWiA) produced for the Commonwealth Department of Climate Change, Environment and Water, provides information about hazardous and controlled wastes produced and managed across the Australian economy, and finds there is a dramatic discrepancy between waste being produced by the gas industry and waste being disposed. Where is this waste containing toxic components going? C100 is a nationally recognised waste category that includes alkaline solids/solutions which have a pH of over ten. The HWiA report states on page 96: Qld C100 waste that is produced by the CSG industry is mostly drilling mud (in liquid form), the waste output of the use of drilling fluids to access the coal seams, described in HWiA 2017 as containing mostly brine/water (76%), barium sulphate (14%) and bentonite clay/polymer (6%). This has dropped as a proportion of total Qld C100 dramatically in recent years — 120,000 tonnes in 2014-15 down to just 1,500 tonnes in 2017-18.The reason for the disappearance of Qld CSG drilling mud from tracking data is almost certainly the new ‘End of Waste Code’ for coal seam gas drilling mud, which became effective in January 2019.This waste code is designed to enable a waste to be reclassified as a resource, and therefore avoid administrative requirements such as waste tracking, as long as contaminant limits are demonstrated to be met and the material is managed according to one of the approved uses (essentially as input to composting to produce compost or conditioned soil product). The HWiA report went on to describe (page 107) discrepancies and inaccuracy in the waste tracking data of D300 (CSG Produced Salts) waste. Blue Environment describes inaccuracy in the data reported and detail how they adjust the data accordingly. Worryingly it was noted that ‘perusal of 2019-20 waste transport certificates finds no CSG industry producers of D300 waste and a vastly reduced arising of just 680 tonnes — a far cry from the peak in tracking data above 50,000 tonnes in 2010-11’.
Frackalachia Update: Peak Natural Gas and the Economic Implications for Appalachia – Ohio River Valley Institute - By the first quarter of 2020, EQT Corporation, the nation’s largest domestic producer of natural gas, was supplying more than 4 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. Just a decade earlier, EQT’s output wasn’t even one-tenth as much and the company ranked an undistinguished 25th for output among US producers. But EQT had the good fortune and foresight to base all of its operations in Appalachia, which made it the greatest beneficiary of what turned out to be the world’s richest natural gas field. In those early days of 2010, when EQT was the scuffling little guy trying to find a place among giants, such as ExxonMobil, the company employed just 1,815 people. But, by 2020, when EQT’s production had surpassed that of ExxonMobil and all others, its employee count mushroomed to . . . 624.Yes, EQT’s head count actually declined by nearly two-thirds between 2010 and 2020. In fairness, some of EQT’s job reduction was attributable to its spin-off of Equitrans Midstream (EQM) in 2018. But, even if you add EQM’s 2020 head count to EQT’s, combined employment at the two companies was only 1,395 in 2020, still a quarter smaller than EQT’s workforce in 2010.EQT’s tale of skyrocketing output accompanied by a shrinking workforce helps us understand important things about the shale gas industry. It helps explain why, as the Ohio River Valley Institute documented in 2021, the Appalachian natural gas boom failed to deliver what had been expected to be hundreds of thousands of new jobs for the region. And it demonstrates that as the natural gas industry matures, it becomes less jobs-intensive and its already meager contributions to economic development and prosperity become even fewer. The dynamic is simple. As a larger share of output comes from existing wells and fewer new ones are dug and work is completed on the construction of processing plants and pipelines, fewer workers are needed.
Appalachian Economy Sees Few Gains From Natural Gas Development, Report Says - Natural gas production in the Appalachian region of the United States has failed to produce promised increases in jobs and income since the fracking boom began there in the late 2000s, with economic stagnation likely to persist now that output of the fuel has passed its peak, according to a report issued on Tuesday. The study from the Ohio River Valley Institute, a nonprofit research group, found that gas-producing areas of Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia lost more than 10,000 jobs from 2008 to 2021 and that their personal income growth trailed that of the three states and the U.S. as a whole. Their population dropped by more than 46,000 during the period.Even though gross domestic product of the 22-county region surged at four times the rate of the states overall from 2008 to 2019, little of that new wealth helped local economies because natural gas investment is mostly made in capital, not labor, and because many of the industry’s workers came from distant areas like Texas or Oklahoma where oil and gas skills were more readily available, the report said.“GDP, which is often cited as a principal barometer of economic health, failed to produce commensurate gains in local measures of prosperity and well-being, including job, income and population growth,” it said.The American Petroleum Institute of Pennsylvania, a trade group for oil and gas producers, rejected the report as “flawed” and argued that the industry has brought strong economic benefits to the state.“Few places in the U.S. are as critical to producing reliable, affordable natural gas as Pennsylvania and the Appalachia region,” said Stephanie Catarino Wissman, executive director of API-PA. “Pennsylvania is the second-leading producer of natural gas, behind only Texas, generating good-paying jobs and hundreds of millions of dollars annually for state and local economies.” She said an analysis by the consulting firm PwC found the oil and gas sector generated some 93,000 direct jobs to Pennsylvania in 2021, and contributed $75 billion to the economy, or 8.9 percent of the total.In the future, the region is expected to see more economic stagnation because its natural gas production likely peaked in 2022, according to this year’s Annual Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The agency predicted that 2022’s peak annual natural gas production from the Utica and Marcellus Shales that underlie Appalachia won’t be equaled again until 2045, and that the region’s share of U.S. national gas production will fall to 37.2 percent by 2050 from 41.9 percent last year, as increasing output from fields in the U.S. southwest and Gulf Coast takes a greater market share.Worldwide, demand for natural gas is falling, said John Hanger, a former secretary of Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection, during a video call with reporters to release the report. Global demand dropped 1.2 percent in 2022 as more countries saw the fuel as “too risky” for their economies because of its unstable price, and as they increasingly switched to renewables to curb climate change, said Hanger, who served as a panelist on the institute’s call for reporters. “In 2022, the world writ large started to deploy renewable energy and other non-fossil fuels including the electrification of buildings, to wean itself off natural gas,” Hanger said. “The golden age of gas is over.”
Critics question climate implications of Appalachian hydrogen hub - Critics say a pair of proposals to make Appalachian Ohio part of regional hydrogen hubs is likely to benefit the state’s oil and gas industry more than the climate. The two proposals are among 21 projects competing for shares of a $7 billion pot of grant money under the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The law defines hydrogen hubs as networks of clean hydrogen producers, their potential consumers and infrastructure connecting them. At least one of the winning projects is to be a “blue” hydrogen hub, meaning it would make hydrogen from fossil fuels with carbon capture, storage and possible reuse, or CCUS. The Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub plans to collect methane from a web of natural gas pipelines in Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Kentucky for a hydrogen production facility in West Virginia. The ARCH2 coalition includes Battelle, natural gas industry companies, the state of West Virginia, and more. The Decarbonization Network of Appalachia, or DNA H2Hub, has the economic development group Team Pennsylvania as its project lead and is also proposing a blue hydrogen hub for Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. Equinor and Shell are among the group’s corporate partners. Because both hubs would use methane from the region as feedstocks, they represent potentially large customers for the natural gas industry. “We believe there are opportunities for the industry in a regional hub or hydrogen ecosystem and that Appalachia is more suited than most areas because of our compactness, access to natural gas and manufacturing infrastructure,” said Rob Brundrett, president of the Ohio Oil & Gas Association. “There certainly would be a benefit, especially the role natural gas plays in the creation of blue hydrogen, but we think it is too early to tell exactly what and how much benefit it may be to the industry.” Much will depend on how hydrogen from the hubs will be used, whether it will displace other current uses of methane, and overall costs and market prices for natural gas. Rough estimates from the Ohio Oil & Gas Association are that recent production has gone in equal shares to power generation, heat and chemicals. On the high end, blue hydrogen hubs might increase natural gas consumption and industry revenues. On the low end, sales to hydrogen hubs could offset potential losses if other uses decrease as a result of the energy transition. Hydrogen production with natural gas and capture of carbon emissions from burning natural gas have gone on for decades, said policy advisor Rachel Fox at the American Petroleum Institute. Current U.S. hydrogen production is approximately 10 million metric tons per year, she said. “The new challenge and opportunity is to scale these two complementary technologies together,” Fox continued. “API and our members are excited about the H2Hubs program and the impact it could have on the growth of a low-carbon hydrogen economy.” She said the industry has shown 65% to 90% carbon capture rates are commercially achievable.
USA, state leaders view Williams building for possible expansion - – Utica Shale Academy officials are setting their sights on further expansion of the community school’s campus and state leaders viewed a potential location at the former Williams Energy office in Salineville. Local and state representatives met Aug. 7 at USA’s Energy Center and walked the short distance to the site at 10 E. Main St. The four-story, 27,000-square-foot building previously served as the Citizen’s Bank national headquarters and was most recently utilized by Williams as a district office until it relocated to Canton in March. Williams officials guided the tour and said the facility underwent renovations in 2018 with general maintenance performed to the HVAC system, plus several dozen heat pumps were replaced within the past two years. John Carey, director of the Ohio Department of Development’s Governor’s Office of Appalachia, visited two months ago to view the construction site and returned to join the group of officials which included Ohio Sen. Michael Rulli and Ohio Rep. Monica Robb Blasdel (both R-Columbiana), Mark Lamoncha of the Ohio Department of Education, Sustainable Opportunity Development Center Director Julie Needs, architect Ryan McNutt with FMD Architects of Fairlawn and officials with Williams Energy, USA and the Southern Local School District. USA Superintendent Bill Watson said it was the latest effort to extend the program’s reach and will build upon its many offerings. “Utica Shale Academy owns four lots and we’re looking to expand to the Williams Building and turn the Hutson Building into a junior high school over the next year,” said Watson. “We acquired the former Destiny House Church for the Utica Shale Academy Community Center and plan to have certified health workers and programs for pregnant mothers and fathers, diaper assistance, drug rehabilitation, transportation, food, housing and workforce development. There will be a workout facility in the basement and services are free. We want people to know it’s there and they can benefit from it.”
'Orphan well' mishap stirs suspicion and frustration in tiny Pennsylvania town - NEW FREEPORT PA is kind of place where residents tend to keep to themselves. But last summer, a message appeared on a township Facebook page that jolted the roughly 80-person community.“There was a FRAC OUT at the bottom of Fox Hill,” read the June 2022 post from Guy Hostutler, a New Freeport supervisor.He was referring to what can happen when an abandoned well is disturbed by nearby drilling, causing it to leak gas and fluid.“If you smell gas or have discolored water DO NOT DRINK OR USE!” Hostutler wrote. Bill Yoders and his wife, Tammy, immediately stopped drinking their water. So did Tim Brady, Steve Roberts Sr. and several other residents. The natural gas company that was doing the drilling, EQT Corp., promised to investigate the incident, and the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection launched its own probe.But more than a year later, New Freeport residents say they are still without definitive answers over what exactly happened and whether their water is safe to drink. The Yoderses, Brady and Roberts are among those who are not taking any chances and are still drinking only bottled water.“I worked my whole life, going to spend my retirement on water and I’m going to pay them back by pissing it off the back porch,” said Bill Yoders, a former pipeliner.The situation in New Freeport has implications that go far beyond this rural corner of southwest Pennsylvania.At least 3.5 million abandoned oil and gas wells are scattered across the U.S. in forests, backyards and even near waterways. More than 100,000 are documented “orphan wells” — ones that have been left behind by companies that no longer exist. The neglected wells have been found to leak cancer-causing chemicals and emit methane, a planet-warming greenhouse gas that’s over 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide. In extreme cases, gas from abandoned wells has been linked to explosions. The environmental and health risks are especially high in places like Pennsylvania, where companies have long drilled for oil and natural gas without adequate oversight by state agencies, according to a 2020 report commissioned by the then-state attorney general, increasing the chances that pollutants from the wells and surrounding reservoirs can seep into the ground, water systems and potentially people’s homes.“It is literally the wild west out there,” said David Hess, who was the head of the state Department of Environmental Protection, or DEP, from April 2001 to January 2003. “These companies can do whatever they want and ask for forgiveness later or not.”
Pennsylvania Residents Call for Action After Study Links Fracking to Asthma and Lymphoma -- A “bombshell” set of studies that linked fracking exposure to lymphoma, asthma and low birth weight is making waves in Pennsylvania and prompting calls by some for a ban on fracking in the state. The studies were released only after years of pressure from people living in the heart of one the most active shale plays in the nation. Some of these residents have faced dire health consequences — and have had to battle repeated attempts by the fossil fuel industry to discredit their health concerns. For those on the front lines, the question now is what happens next. The three studies co-published by the Pennsylvania state government and the University of Pittsburgh found serious health effects resulting from shale gas production in the southwestern part of the commonwealth. A study on the incidence of childhood cancer found five to seven times the rates of lymphoma among children who live within one mile of a natural gas well compared to those who live no closer than five miles from such a well. A study on birth outcomes found a correlation between low birth weight and a mother’s proximity to active wells during their production phase — when oil or gas is collected from a well, after drilling fluid has been shot deep vertically, then horizontally, underground.And a study on asthma risk found a strong link between natural gas production and hospitalization for asthma in people living within 10 miles of a natural gas well. These findings are backed up by a mountain of previous research. But for Dr. Ned Ketyer, president of Physicians for Social Responsibility Pennsylvania, who first called on state regulators to investigate fracking’s link to a grouping of rare childhood cancer cases in 2019, the asthma revelation is, nonetheless, a “bombshell.” “I live in Washington County,” he said. “There is no resident who lives more than 10 miles away from a fracking well or another site of fracking infrastructure. “We are all at risk,” he continued. “And the risk is significant.” The road to that finding and others, released Tuesday, Aug. 15, was not an easy one, he told Capital & Main. Ketyer was among a group who first proposed the research in the wake of a 2019 investigative report by thePittsburgh Post-Gazette that found 67 rare cancer patients across four counties surrounding Pittsburgh, rattling community members who live on the front lines of fracking in the No. 2 natural-gas-producing state in the country.
Assessing the relationship between energy-related methane emissions and the burden of cardiovascular diseases: a cross-sectional study of 73 countries - Abstract: The energy industry significantly contributes to anthropogenic methane emissions, which add to global warming and have been linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). This study aims to evaluate the relationship between energy-related methane emissions and the burden of CVD, measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), in 2019. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of datasets from 73 countries across all continents. The analyzed datasets included information from 2019 on environmental energy-related methane emissions, burden of DALYs due to CVD. The age-standardized prevalence of obesity in adults and life expectancy at birth were retrieved. The relationship between the variables of interest was evaluated using multiple linear regression models. In the multiple model, we observed a positive linear association between methane emissions and the log-transformed count of DALYs related to CVD. Specifically, for each unit increase in energy-related methane emissions, the burden of CVD increased by 0.06% (95% CI 0.03–0.09%, p < 0.001). The study suggests that reducing methane emissions from the energy industry could improve public health for those at risk of CVD. Policymakers can use these findings to develop strategies to reduce methane emissions and protect public health.
Only 6% of gas capacity needs major changes to meet EPA’s proposed GHG rules: RMI report --About 94% of existing gas-fired power plant capacity already meets the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed greenhouse gas emissions limits or could meet them with “minor” operational changes, according to RMI.“Existing gas plants would not have to significantly change operations to reduce their emissions in line with the EPA’s proposed performance standards,” RMI analysts said in analysis released Monday. “The standards provide flexibility for gas plants to play their current role in supporting grid reliability.”However, the PJM Interconnection and other grid operators as well asutilities and power companies in comments to EPA earlier this month warned the agency’s proposal could threaten grid reliability, partly by driving power plants into retirement.In May, the EPA proposed greenhouse gas emissions limits for coal-, gas- and oil-fired power plants, with initial requirements beginning in 2030 for coal-fired generators and 2032 for gas-fired units. The limits can be met by highly efficient operations, carbon capture and sequestration, co-firing natural gas for coal units, and with green hydrogen for gas generators, according to the proposal.For existing gas-fired power plants, the rules would apply to those larger than 300 MW that run with at least a 50% capacity factor. They would have two compliance options: CCS with 90% carbon capture by 2035, or co-firing of 30% low-GHG hydrogen beginning in 2032 and co-firing 96% starting in 2038, according to the agency. New gas-fired power plants with a 20% or higher capacity factor must meet those emissions limits.Nearly 80% of the 470 GW existing gas-fired generating capacity would be unaffected by the proposed standards because they fall below the 300-MW threshold or operate less than half the time, according to RMI, a non-profit group focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. The analysis was based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration accessed through the Public Utility Data Liberation Project.Much of the almost 100 GW of capacity that would be affected by the proposal could comply with minor changes in their operations by reducing their capacity factors, the RMI analysts said.Six percent of gas-fired capacity would likely have to reduce their capacity factor by more than 20% or invest in emissions reduction technology to meet the 2032 or 2035 deadlines, they said.According to RMI, the top 10 companies with the most capacity that would be affected by the EPA’s proposal are: Florida Power & Light, known as FPL, Georgia Power, Entergy Louisiana, Southern Power, Duke Energy Florida, Tennessee Valley Authority, Duke Energy Progress, Duke Energy Carolinas, Invenergy and Lightstone Generation.About 54% of FPL’s fleet, or about 11,390 MW, would be affected by the EPA’s proposal. But only 3% of that capacity operates above a 70% capacity factor, according to RMI.Meanwhile, gas-fired capacity factors are expected to fall as more renewable energy and energy storage comes online.
Joe Manchin is furious over the Inflation Reduction Act he helped write - White House is torn over Joe Manchin’s fury at climate law he crafted - The obscure federal agency that oversees the nation’s immense tangle of pipelines, power lines and transfer stations is unfamiliar to most Americans. But it has very much been on Sen. Joe Manchin III’s mind. By the end of last year, the West Virginia Democrat had become deeply displeased with how the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission was helping the Biden administration advance its aggressive climate goals. Manchin, a staunch ally of fossil fuel interests, was particularly critical of the agency’s efforts to write regulations that more fully consider climate impact when it reviews new natural gas infrastructure. So he kneecapped the agency. The chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Manchin refused to hold a confirmation hearing for the reappointment of Richard Glick, the agency’s chair and a key ally of President Biden, after Glick’s term expired at the end of the year. That has effectively stripped the board of its Democratic majority, leaving it deadlocked and limiting its ability to advance renewable energy projects.Manchin isn’t the essential tiebreaking vote for Democrats in the Senate anymore, but a year after the enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act — which wouldn’t have passed without his support — he’s irate at the way Biden is implementing the law. And he’s fighting back: Besides his pressure on FERC, Manchin has vowed to oppose appointments to the Environmental Protection Agency and the Interior Department. He is even publicly flirting with running for president in 2024, an unlikely prospect but one that could be devastating for Biden — and a situation that senior White House officials are closely monitoring. “I’m so absolutely in disagreement with how they’re trying to promote an energy policy. … It’s just not all about, ‘All green and clean,’” Manchin said on a West Virginia radio show earlier this month. “I’m in disagreement continuously with them.” Now Biden and his aides are in the delicate position of trying to agree to Manchin’s demands where they can to avoid antagonizing him more, while still advancing a climate agenda that the senator strongly opposes — even though his vote last year made it possible in the first place.
After case dismissals, work on Mountain Valley Pipeline resumes in Virginia - Construction on the Mountain Valley Pipeline has resumed in Virginia following the dismissal of several legal challenges that had been holding it up for years. Matthew Stafford, a manager with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, told the State Water Control Board Wednesday the company resumed work on the pipeline on Aug. 4 and has completed eight stream and wetland crossings. The 303-mile project is intended to deliver natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica shale fields to southern Virginia and was first approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in 2017. However, its progress was stalled by lawsuits over the pipeline’s environmental impacts that led the Richmond-based U.S. Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit to repeatedly overturn key federal permits it had been issued. Mountain Valley’s prospects changed dramatically in June when Congress passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act with a provision that required approval of all pending permits and stripped the 4th Circuit of jurisdiction to hear any challenges of those approvals. On Aug. 11, the 4th Circuit dismissed the last remaining pipeline cases, concluding any legal action over the constitutionality of the Fiscal Responsibility Act’s Mountain Valley provisions must be heard by the U.S. Supreme Court. Mountain Valley has said it expects to complete work by the end of this year. In Virginia, Stafford said work remains in sections of Montgomery and Roanoke counties. He told the board about 90% of the project’s tree clearing is complete, as is 82% of trenching, 87% of pipe laying, 82% of welding, 77% of backfilling and 19% of restoration. DEQ has received one pipeline-related complaint since June 22, he said, but after investigation “found no noncompliance.” However, David Sligh, conservation director at Wild Virginia, one of the groups that has been active in litigation against Mountain Valley, told the board that on July 14, a DEQ inspection of the pipeline found major sediment accumulation in a tributary of Flatwoods Branch, which is home to the endangered Roanoke logperch. “We’re looking at a great deal of construction coming up here in the next six months, and we can add important information that you need to know,” Sligh said. A DEQ spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Sligh’s information. Asked about Sligh’s claims, Mountain Valley spokesperson Natalie Cox pointed to a FERC filing by the company this March that accused Wild Virginia of seeking to “delay and obstruct” the project’s completion. “The best environmental outcome to protect the streams, wetlands, upland areas, and all terrestrial and aquatic species is to complete construction as soon as possible so that the right-of-way can be fully restored and revegetated,” Mountain Valley wrote. As work resumes, the project is also facing increased scrutiny from the federal Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. Earlier this month, the agency issued a Notice of Proposed Safety Order for Mountain Valley calling for further assessment of pipeline conditions following the construction delays. “PHMSA’s ongoing investigation indicates that conditions may exist on [Mountain Valley] facilities that pose a pipeline integrity risk to public safety, property, or the environment,” wrote Robert Burrough, director of the agency’s Eastern Region Office. Cox said Mountain Valley “has worked closely with PHMSA.” “Safety has always been MVP’s top priority, and we are committed to meeting or exceeding all applicable regulations to ensure the safety of our employees, contractors, assets, and communities,” Cox stated. “We expect federal and state regulators will continue to audit our construction practices during the next few months, and we welcome their expertise and oversight.”
Lake Michigan fuel spill near Manistee estimated at 1,500 gallons — The U.S. Coast Guard estimates that around 1,500 gallons of diesel fuel was spilled into Lake Michigan earlier this month, according to a news release from Monday. A freighter that frequently transports coal to Manistee, the Manitowoc experienced a hull breach that led to a diesel fuel spill on Aug. 2.The bulk carrier remained anchored off the Manistee coast until a temporary patch was put into place. On Aug. 4, the ship was cleared to head to Muskegon for permanent repairs.An investigation into the cause of the spill is ongoing, the release stated.The crew of the Manitowoc conducted and recorded initial fuel tank soundings, according to the release. After making temporary repairs, additional soundings were conducted, and a comparison of the two showed that approximately 1,500 gallons of diesel fuel was released during the incident.The maximum potential spill was determined to be approximately 45,174 gallons, according to coast guard estimates from Aug. 3. That is the amount that the freighter left port with and had onboard before arriving in Manistee.The coast guard and its partners in local, state and tribal governments, reported no known impacts to the shoreline or to marine wildlife as a result of the spill.“Diesel fuel spreads across the top of the water and weathers from sun, wind and wave action,” part of the release stated. “All diesel fuel is believed to have dissipated and evaporated without sinking into the water column.”
Offshore Oil Workers Fall Ill as Heat Sears USA Gulf Coast - Heat-related illnesses are hitting workers on offshore oil and gas platforms as searing temperatures bake the US Gulf Coast. A rare heat advisory from the Interior Department’s Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement warned offshore oil companies on Tuesday to take extra precautions in the Gulf, including periodic breaks. In a few recent instances, affected workers have been taken to shore for further evaluation, the alert said. Extreme heat has smothered Texas and Louisiana for weeks. For the nearby offshore production regions, the heat index — a measure of what temperatures feel like when combined with humidity — has reached 100F to 110F (38C to 43C) degrees, said Rich Otto, a forecaster with the US Weather Prediction Center. The water temperature in the Gulf of Mexico has hit 88F in many areas off the coast of Texas and Louisiana, according to the US National Data Buoy Center.
Biden Revived Rules Designed to Prevent Another Deepwater Horizon Disaster - The Department of the Interior announced on Tuesday that it had reinstated Obama-era safety rules for offshore drilling that were created after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon catastrophe, which killed 11 people and fouled the Gulf of Mexico. The Trump administration weakened those safety measures, arguing that they were a burden to the oil and gas industry. The new regulation, which was finalized on Tuesday and will take effect in October, revives most of the 2016 requirements for the use and testing of safety equipment on offshore rigs. Deb Haaland, the Interior secretary, and Kevin Sligh, the director of the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, or BSEE, said in a joint statement that the new rules were critical for ensuring the safety of offshore operations. “Finalizing this rule will enable BSEE to continue to put the lives and livelihoods of workers first, as well as the protection of our waters and marine habitats,” Mr. Sligh said. Jackie Savitz, the chief policy officer for Oceana, an ocean conservation nonprofit group, called the rule “a big step in getting us back on track” but argued offshore oil and gas will never be free of risk.“There is no way we can do enough to prevent an oil spill, it is an inherently risky business and it’s not a matter of if, but when we will have another one. So a big part of prevention has to be to stop selling new leases,” Ms. Savitz said Republicans and the oil and gas industry are widely expected to challenge the rule, which includes the real-time monitoring of drilling operations and the certification of emergency devices by third parties. The industry has argued that the Biden administration’s safety measures are “arbitrary” and will create economic hardships for oil and gas companies.
Permian Resources Buys Earthstone in $4.5B Deal - Permian Resources Corporation and Earthstone Energy Inc announced in a joint statement that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which Permian Resources will acquire Earthstone in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $4.5 billion, inclusive of Earthstone’s net debt. The all-stock transaction will consist of 1.446 shares of Permian Resources common stock for each share of Earthstone common stock, representing an implied value to each Earthstone stockholder of $18.64 per share, based on the closing price of Permian Resources common stock on August 18, the statement noted, adding that Permian Resources will issue approximately 211 million shares of common stock in the transaction. After closing, existing Permian Resources shareholders will own approximately 73 percent of the combined company and existing Earthstone shareholders will own approximately 27 percent of the combined company, the statement revealed. The deal has been unanimously approved by the boards of directors of both Permian Resources and Earthstone and the companies’ largest shareholders have executed a voting and support agreement in connection with the transaction, the statement highlighted. The deal is expected to close by year-end 2023, subject to customary closing conditions, regulatory approvals, and shareholder approvals, according to the statement. Permian Resources’ executive management team will lead the combined company with the headquarters remaining in Midland, Texas, the statement pointed out.
Appeals court strikes down Utah oil railroad approval, siding with environmentalists - (AP) — A U.S. Appeals Court on Friday struck down a critical approval for a railroad project that would have allowed oil businesses in eastern Utah to significantly expand fossil fuel production and exports.The ruling is the latest development in the fight over the proposed Uinta Basin Railway, an 88-mile (142-kilometer) railroad line that would connect oil and gas producers in rural Utah to the broader rail network, allowing them to access larger markets and ultimately sell to refineries near the Gulf of Mexico. The railroad would let producers, currently limited to tanker trucks, ship an additional 350,000 barrels of crude daily on trains extending for up to 2 miles (3.2 kilometers).The Washington, D.C.-based appeals court ruled that a 2021 environmental impact statement and biological opinion from the federal Surface Transportation Board were rushed and violated federal laws. It sided with environmental groups and Colorado’s Eagle County, which had sued to challenge the approval.The court said the board had engaged in only a “paltry discussion” of the environmental impact the project could have on the communities and species who would live along the line and the “downline” communities who live along railroads where oil trains would travel.“The limited weighing of the other environmental policies the board did undertake fails to demonstrate any serious grappling with the significant potential for environmental harm stemming from the project,” the ruling stated.Surface Transportation Board spokesperson Michael Booth said the agency does not comment on pending litigation.Though the Uinta Basin Railway proposal still must win additional approvals and secure funding before construction can begin, proponents saw the 2021 environmental impact statement from the board as among the most critical approvals to date. The statement received pushback from environmentalists concerned that constructing new infrastructure to transport more fossil fuels will allow more oil to be extracted and burned, contributing to climate change.
‘Drill, frack, burn coal’: Republicans echo Trump at presidential debate - Former President Donald Trump might not have been at Wednesday’s Republican presidential debate, but his energy policy and rejection of climate science took center stage.Trump’s push for energy dominance cast a long shadow over the eight candidates onstage in Wisconsin, and all promised to essentially follow in his footsteps if they can overcome his massive polling advantage to win the nomination next year.“This isn’t that complicated guys, unlock American energy, drill, frack, burn coal, embrace nuclear,” technology entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy said.The debate showed that, while the candidates aim to differentiate themselves from the front-runner, none are seizing on climate policy or support for renewable energy manufacturing and jobs as a way to stand out.“We’re going to open up all energy production, we’re going to be energy dominant in this country,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said in the first minutes of the debate, echoing a familiar Trump line.Energy policy is one of theprimary areas of agreement for the Republican candidates. They have all called for a massive increase in domestic oil and gas production and a shift away from President Joe Biden’s aggressive clean energy push. The candidates have universally criticized Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, and some have promised to repeal the climate law or slow its implementation if Congress won’t go along.Candidates also pushed for a slowdown in clean energy by claiming it only helps China, a regular talking point on Capitol Hill.“These green subsidies that Biden has put in, all he’s done is help China because he doesn’t understand,” former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley said, adding, “Half of the batteries for electric vehicles are made in China, so that’s not helping the environment, you’re putting money in China’s pocket.” Wednesday’s debate was hosted by Fox News, which frequently promotes climate disinformation to its large cable audience. Fox hosts have routinely rejected climate science and frequently host on their programs climate deniers who claim that recent heat waves, drought and extreme storms have no connection to human-caused climate change.
Reaching 2050 Net Zero Demands Large and Rapid Oil Consumption Drop | Rigzone -- Reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 demands large and relatively rapid declines in oil and gas consumption, led by the transport and power sectors, coupled with widespread deployment of carbon capture technologies among heavy industry. That’s according to analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, who made the statement in a new report sent to Rigzone recently. “While net-zero pathways can take a myriad of forms, there is no pathway in which oil and gas demand does not precipitously decline, supply chain emissions are not dramatically reduced, and carbon capture and storage has no role to play,” the analysts said in the report. One potential pathway to net zero highlighted in the report sees demand falling by around 75 percent, “led by the transport, power, residential, and commercial sectors”. Industrial demand remains relatively resilient in this pathway, but carbon capture technologies are widely deployed downstream, the analysts outlined. “Upstream and midstream carbon intensity also falls substantially under this scenario, with carbon credits playing only a marginal role in offsetting residual emissions,” the analysts added. In the report, the BMI analysts noted that current demand trajectories are poorly aligned with the Paris Agreement, “with carbon budgets being rapidly exhausted”. “Based on our existing forecasts for refined fuels and natural gas consumption, by 2032 global demand will be more than 35 percent above a level consistent with a net-zero 2050 target, absent substantial reductions in the carbon intensity levels and far wider deployment of CCS,” the analysts said. “These forecasts also suggest that the bulk of the carbon budget available to oil and gas under a 1.5C pathway will have been used up by the end of the decade. Assuming climate targets are ultimately met, this points to the likelihood of significant future policy discontinuity, carrying considerable risk to the oil and gas sector,” they added. “Extreme examples would include stringent curbs on the import or use of fossil fuels, or moratoriums on drilling and production. Companies can adapt to incremental and forwardly transparent policy evolution, but rapid policy shifts [can] be hugely disruptive to operational and financial performance,” the analysts warned. The BMI representatives said in the report that aligning corporate strategy to the Paris Agreement can help insulate a company against these risks. In a separate report sent to Rigzone, analysts at BMI stated that, as we progress towards a net-zero economy, oil and gas companies, whose core business is the production, transformation, and sale of emissions-intensive fossil fuels, have three options open to them – “adapt, mitigate or manage their decline”. “Adaptation involves the company decoupling its revenue growth from emissions growth, shifting its asset base into alternative, low-carbon energies,” the analysts said in this report. “Mitigation entails some degree of diversification, but largely within the oil and gas sector itself, with companies focusing on a less pollutive, more specialized and more durable product suite downstream and stripping greenhouse gas emissions out of the upstream and midstream supply chain,” they added. “Managed decline involves the company in a more or less ‘business as usual’ approach. Investments are focused towards minimizing cost and maximizing recovery and the asset base remains broadly unchanged,” the analysts continued. In this report, the BMI analysts warned that, as the energy transition accelerates, more stringent disclosure requirements will be brought into place across a wider array of markets. “Those companies that fail to align with the Paris Agreement will then find themselves increasingly vulnerable to litigation,” the analysts said in the report. “Equally, efforts to capture emissions at either the asset or company level are currently patchy and unstandardized,” they added. “However, as emissions monitoring, reporting and verification standards and capabilities are improved, wide divergence in emissions reduction efforts will be laid bare, introducing new legal, regulatory, and reputational risks to the sector,” the analysts went on to state.
Oil and Gas Explorers Will Become Bolder - Oil and gas explorers will become bolder in the coming years, Julie Wilson, the Director of Global Exploration Research at Wood Mackenzie outlined in a release sent to Rigzone recently, which highlighted that exploration spend will recover from “historic lows”. “While this rebound might surprise some, it must be seen in context,” Wilson noted in the release. “Exploration went through a boom during 2006-2014 and spend peaked at $79 billion (in 2023 terms). But in the prior six years, the average was $27 billion per year in 2023 terms,” Wilson added. “While spending will increase, it won’t return to anywhere close to past highs and there will likely be a ceiling on the increase. There is a lack of high-quality prospects that would satisfy today’s economic and ESG metrics and a continued focus on capital discipline will keep a lid on overspending,” Wilson continued. According to a new report from Wood Mackenzie, exploration spend (excluding appraisal) will recover from historic lows to average $22 billion per annum in real terms over the next five years, the release outlined. A chart of exploration spend in real 2023 terms, which spanned from 2020 to 2027 and was included in the release, showed that this spend peaked in 2013. During that year, the majority of the spend went towards deepwater, according to the chart. Exploration spend came in above $20 billion in 2000, then rose well above $40 billion in 2006, well above $50 billion in 2007, and near $70 billion in 2008, the chart outlined. It then increased year on year to 2013, before dropping to its lowest point last year, the chart revealed. Wood Mackenzie highlighted in its latest release that, according to its report, “tailwinds from attractive exploration economics, the need for energy security, and the emergence of new frontiers will incentivize oil and gas companies, led by NOCs and majors, to increase exploration spending through 2027”. The growth will begin in 2023, with spending projected to increase 6.8 percent over 2022 totals, the release stated, adding that a major driver for this increased activity “is the robust business case”. Full cycle returns from exploration have been consistently above 10 percent since 2018 and exceeded 20 percent in 2022, Wood Mackenzie highlighted in the release.
Argentina to launch pipeline conversion project to move Vaca Muerta gas to north | S&P Global Commodity Insights - Argentinian Energy Secretary Flavia Royon said Aug. 22 that a project will be launched in the next few days to convert a pipeline in northern Argentina to transport natural gas north from the Vaca Muerta shale play, helping to compensate for a decline in imports from Bolivia. "The reversion of the pipeline is urgent," she said at the Argentina Energy Roundtable organized by the Institute of the Americas in Buenos Aires. "Bolivia is suffering a sharp decline in its gas production. It is not going to be able to comply with its supply agreement with Argentina." Argentina has relied on gas imports from Bolivia for nearly 20 years to meet demand in the north, where gas fields on its side of the border have been flagging in production and reserves. This reliance on Bolivian gas in northern Argentina, including for power generation, has raised concerns of shortages over the past few years as Bolivian output dwindles. Bolivia's gas output fell 18% to 34.6 million cu m/d in May from an average of 42.2 million cu m/d for all of 2022 and was down 43% from a peak of 60.8 million cu m/d for all of 2014, according to data from the Bolivian National Institute of Statistics. Vaca Muerta is emerging as the new source of gas for the north of Argentina thanks to its huge resources -- estimated at 300 Tcf, equivalent to 150 years of national demand -- and the construction of a pipeline to move the production to the center of the country. The first section of that Vaca Muerta pipeline started operations in July, moving 11 million cu m/d to central Buenos Aires province. The addition of compression plants will increase the flow on that first section to 22 million cu m/d later this year, but the second section of the pipeline is needed to feed the north with gas, Royon said. The second section will take the flow on the Vaca Muerta pipeline to 44 million cu m/d in 2025 to feed supplies to the center of the country, where there is a connection to the northern pipeline. Royon said the government is working on how to finance the second section of the pipeline, adding that the auction for its construction will be held in September. In April, Royon said these two pipeline projects will allow Argentina to stop importing gas from Bolivia by 2024 or 2025, leaving gas imports from the global LNG market to times of peak winter demand in the months of June, July and August.Talks Start to Avert Strike at Australia's Biggest LNG Terminal -Talks to avoid strikes at Australia’s biggest liquefied natural gas export terminal began Wednesday morning, with the threat to supply set to continue rocking global markets for the fuel. Woodside Energy Group Ltd. and officials representing workers at its North West Shelf LNG facility have started discussions in Perth to negotiate pay and conditions, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Talks are expected to continue until the evening. The Offshore Alliance, a group representing two major labor unions, previously said that it will move forward with strikes as early as Sept. 2 if a deal isn’t reached on Wednesday. The risk of disruptions to LNG exports from Australia, one of the world’s biggest suppliers, has sent Asian and European prices surging this month. Strikes at Woodside and Chevron Corp. facilities, which is facing similar labor action, may put as much as 10 percent of global LNG supply at risk just as the Northern Hemisphere prepares for winter.
Fresh Oil Spill Reported in Ogoni, MOSOP Commend Containment - A fresh oil spill has been reported in Ogoni. The spill which occurred on Friday, August 18, 2023 was detected following oil leaks from a pipeline in Bodo community, Gokana local government area of Rivers State. The precise cause of the pipeline failure which caused the spill has not been determined and the operators of the pipeline, the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited, SPDC, were yet to make an offcial statement on the spill. Information from the community says the spill occurred on Friday, August 18, 2023. Community sources also conrm that the spill was promptly contained after it was reported. President of the Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People, MOSOP, Fegalo Nsuke conrmed the incident this morning and expressed worries over the frequency of oil spill occurrences in the Ogoni region. Nsuke said “the frequency of oil spills in the Ogoni area raises questions about the integrity of oil assets in the entire NIger Delta region.” While commending the prompt response from the operators of the pipeline, Shell, he demanded an unbiased investigation into the cause of the spill. “We understand the spill has been contained and that the containment was prompt and averted serious pollution and the environmental problems that came with similar spills. That is commendable. However, we will expect a transparent and speedy investigation into the spill to enable a proper response that can avert similar cases in future”. The MOSOP leader further called on the Bodo community to cooperate with repair works and remediation e|orts if and when they are initiated. “I will urge the Bodo community to cooperate with e|orts to repair the pipeline as well as any remediation e|orts if and when they are initiated. I will urge tolerance, as usual, to allow them to x the pipelines for our collective safety” . “We do not think they will do anything extraordinary which could jeopardize the safety of residents and we believe Shell’s presence in this instance will be to x the faulty pipeline and that should be in our interest. I urge everyone to cooperate with that process and be very instance will be to x the faulty pipeline and that should be in our interest. I urge everyone to cooperate with that process and be very vigilant”, he said.
July Russian oil imports dip; Saudi import down to 2-1/2-yr low: Trade data -- India's July crude oil imports from Russia dipped for the first time in nine months, while inbound shipments from Saudi Arabia tumbled to their lowest in 2-1/2 years following OPEC+ cuts, tanker data from trade and industry sources showed. Both China and India, the world's biggest and third-biggest oil importers, cut imports from Russia and Saudi Arabia in July after prices rose and as the two oil producers reduced output and crude oil shipments. Saudi Arabia volunteered to cut output by another 1 million barrels per day (bpd) from July through September, and Russia will reduce exports in August by 500,000 bpd, part of a deal among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a grouping know as OPEC+, to curb supplies and support prices. India's overall imports also declined 5.2% from June to 4.4 million bpd oil in July, the data showed, as several refining plants are shut for maintenance during monsoon season. Russian oil imports declined 5.7% to 1.85 million bpd and Saudi shipments fell by 26% to 470,000 bpd, the data showed. India imports more than 80% of its overall oil needs.
India imports $12.4 billion worth of crude from Russia but discounts are waning -India has been enjoying the discounted crude oil from Russia for over a year now. But the discount that India seems to be enjoying is coming down even as Russia remains one of its biggest suppliers as it imported crude to the tune of $12.4 billion in Q1FY24. “This year, in Q1FY24, while India continues to import crude oil at discounted rate from Russia compared with other countries; the premium has actually gone down relative to last year,” says Jahnavi Prabhakar, economist at Bank of Baroda. In the April-June quarter of FY23, the premium that India enjoyed from Russian crude – that’s the difference between international prices and Russian supply — was at $12.6 per barrel. In the same quarter this year, it has come down to $8.8 per barrel. Russia also announced in early August that it’s planning to cut crude oil production by 300,000 barrels per day. Prime Minister Alexander Novak had said that the country is going in for voluntary cuts to ensure the “oil market remains balanced”. It will also cut its exports by that quantity, he added. This is in addition to a pledge to reduce its oil output by around 500,000 barrels per day, or some 5% of its oil production, from March to the end of the year.
Russian Oil Refineries Get Busier as Fuel Subsidies Cut Looms Russia’s oil refineries increased crude-processing rates in the first half of August — before a sharp cut to state subsidies that’s about to take effect. Daily primary processing rates averaged 5.63 million barrels over Aug. 1-16, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. That’s almost 10,000 barrels a day higher than the average for the most of July, even as Rosneft’s PJSC’s Saratov refinery started planned maintenance. Gazprom PJSC’s Surgut condensate-processing plant completed work last week and Surgutneftegas PJSC’s Kirishi raised throughput this month compared with July, contributing to the overall increase, said Mikhail Turukalov, an independent US-based oil analyst. There was also a slight increase at Gazprom Neft’s Omsk refinery and TAIF-NK, he added. The nation’s crude flows to domestic refineries and its supplies overseas are among key indicators for oil market observers following trends in Russia’s output after official data was classified amid Western sanctions. The Kremlin pledged to cut output by 500,000 barrels a day from February levels and maintain the curbs through 2024. While there was little evidence of the full adherence to the pledge earlier this year, last month Russia “more than fulfilled” its commitment, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. “It’s difficult to assess whether monthly growth of refinery throughput will keep through August,” said Turukalov. “Rosneft’s Angarsk refinery started planned works Aug. 15 and if its Ryazan refinery begins maintenance Aug. 20, then Russia’s processing rates will be lower this month compared with July.” August is the final month before the government halves subsidies for domestic supplies of gasoline and diesel, adding an incentive for Russian refiners to process more crude.
China And Russia Execute A Pincer Movement Around Iraq’s Biggest Oil Assets -- Crucial to Iraq’s plan to increase its oil production capacity to around 7 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027 are the supergiant fields of Rumaila and West Qurna 2, as analysed in depth in my new book on the new global oil market order. Within the last two weeks, Russian state oil proxy Lukoil agreed to dramatically increase output from West Qurna 2. At around the same time, Daqing Drilling Engineering Company – a subsidiary of Chinese state oil proxy China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) – was awarded a US$192 million engineering, procurement, and construction contract for Rumaila. Both critical developments in Iraq’s oil sector follow a comment from a very high-ranking official from the Kremlin – related exclusively to OilPrice.com at the time by a senior source in the European Union’s (E.U.) energy security apparatus – that: “By keeping the West out of energy deals in Iraq – and closer to the new Iran-Saudi axis – the end of Western hegemony in the Middle East will become the decisive chapter in the West’s final demise”. The key question now for U.S. and its allies is what happens next in Iraq? From China’s and Russia’s perspective, things are going very well indeed, based on the plan they put into action after the U.S.’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, colloquially ‘the nuclear deal’) with Iran in May 2018. At the broadest level, the objective was to control all of Iran’s massive oil and gas resources between them, and then to extend this influence into Iraq, and then into Saudi Arabia so that they controlled all their oil and gas resources too. This would provide China with all the energy it needed to power its economic growth into the future so that it could overtake the U.S. as the world’s leading economic superpower by 2030 (the ‘hard’ target date at that point in 2018). China’s path towards realising its objectives was made much easier by the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA. Within just three months of this, China and Iran had agreed in principle nearly all the key energy, financial, and military cooperation policies that would be enshrined a year later in the ‘Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement’ as first revealed anywhere in the world in my 3 September 2019 article on the subject and analysed in full in my new book on the new global oil market order. Aside from the obvious energy advantages to China of such an agreement, it was also aware that this pact would create an enormous perceived security threat to Iran’s arch-historical enemy, Saudi Arabia. From that point, then, China capitalised on Saudi Arabia’s fears to further leverage the relationship it had developed with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) via a face-saving offer over the Aramco IPO that enabled him to become heir to King Salman, as also analysed in the book. A spate of deals was done between Saudi Arabia and China, to the point that by the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Saudi Arabia was already so aligned to China that Saudi Aramco’s chief executive officer, Amin Nasser, said: “Ensuring the continuing security of China’s energy needs remains our highest priority – not just for the next five years but for the next 50 and beyond”. These developments, as China had anticipated back in May 2018, culminated in the 10 March 2023 agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore relations, brokered and monitored for the future by Beijing. The longstanding division of tasks between China and Russia is evident in the current phase of their takeover of Iraq’s oil and gas sector. Well-known Russian oil and gas firms are present in major exploration and development contracts across the country, including in the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan, which it uses to create trouble – and therefore leverage – with southern Iraq. China, conversely, remains content to play the quieter, longer game, in order not to provoke direct confrontation with the U.S. and its allies.
Saudi massacres of refugees: Mass murder by key US ally -- Border guards in Saudi Arabia, armed and trained by the imperialist powers, especially the United States, have committed sadistic crimes against humanity, according to a report by Human Rights Watch (HRW) released Monday. The report documents the systematic murder of hundreds of migrants, mainly from Ethiopia, at the Yemen-Saudi border between March 2022 and June 2023. Based on eyewitness, video and satellite evidence, the report, headlined, “They Fired on Us Like Rain,” found that large groups of migrants were targeted with mortars, rockets and tanks, leaving “scenes of horror: women, men, and children strewn across the mountainous landscape severely injured, dismembered, or already dead.” These attacks sometimes continued for days. Many with limbs torn off had to be abandoned, with survivors describing memories of the screams and the mental trauma of being forced to leave them behind. Fourteen-year-old Hamdiya told HRW, “We were fired on repeatedly. I saw people killed in a way I have never imagined. I saw 30 killed people on the spot. I pushed myself under a rock and slept there. I could feel people sleeping around me. I realized what I thought were people sleeping around me were actually dead bodies.” Sometimes upwards of 100 people were killed in a single assault. Mass killings continued as the victims fled back toward Yemen. Mass graves are being dug at crossing points along the border. Migrants apprehended by border guards report being asked in which limb they would like to be shot before the maiming was carried out. Others were beaten with rocks and metal bars. This was sometimes the method used to deal with those who had survived attacks from a distance with explosive weapons. “A 17-year-old boy described how Saudi border guards forced him and other survivors to rape two girl survivors after the guards had executed another survivor who refused.” Survivors temporarily detained in Saudi Arabia before being expelled back into Yemen were beaten, kept in unsanitary, overcrowded conditions—fed once a day and held in sites flooded with sewage. HRW writes cautiously that “the abuses may qualify as crimes against humanity, if there is now a Saudi state policy of murder of civilian migrants,” but the evidence is overwhelming. Between the start of the year and April 30, 2023, writes HRW, “UN experts reported receiving allegations of ‘artillery shelling and small arms fire allegedly by Saudi security forces causing the deaths of up to 430 and injuring 650 migrants, including refugees and asylum seekers.’ They went goes on to state that this ‘appears to be a systematic pattern of large-scale indiscriminate cross-border killings.’”
US and Iran reach agreement amid escalating pressure, tensions and threats - The US has agreed an informal and limited deal with Iran over its nuclear programme in a bid to stymie growing relations between Tehran and Moscow, as Washington prepares to escalate the war in Ukraine against Russia. Following more than a year of indirect talks, Iran’s clerical bourgeois nationalist regime has apparently agreed not to process uranium beyond the 60 percent level, to release several jailed Iranian-American dual nationals, to stop attacks on American forces by its regional allies, and to not transfer ballistic missiles to Russia. In return, the US has agreed not to tighten sanctions, seize oil tankers or seek punitive resolutions against Iran at the United Nations or the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It has also agreed to the unfreezing of some Iranian assets in third countries for non-sanctionable activities, including food and medicine imports. The details are sketchy, with the Biden administration refusing to comment or confirm the arrangements, which do not constitute a formal written accord. In part at least, this is to avoid triggering the 2015 US Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, which requires any nuclear agreement reached with Tehran to be approved by Congress, which is openly hostile to any such deal. The Republican Party has lashed out at the news, with former Vice President Mike Pence, who is running for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, calling the deal “the largest ransom payment in American history to the Mullahs in Tehran.” In the last week, Iran has transferred four Iranian-Americans imprisoned in Tehran’s Evin Prison to house arrest, including Siamak Namazi, Emad Sharghi and Morad Tahbaz, jailed on charges of spying, and two other unnamed Americans, one a scientist and the other a businessman, one of whom had already been released to house arrest. They will be allowed to return to the US once $6 billion of Iran’s frozen oil revenues in South Korea and $4 billion in Iraq have been transferred via the central bank in Qatar to Iran. The cash will provide a crucial lifeline for President Ebrahim Raisi’s regime, which is struggling with a $10 billion budget deficit, although it can only be spent on food and medicine. According to Iran’s state news agency, IRNA, the US will then release five Iranians held in American prisons. A report in The Wall Street Journal last week said that Tehran had decided to lower the quantity of enriched uranium it possesses and dilute some of the uranium already enriched back to 60 percent—far higher than that agreed under the 2015 nuclear accord that the Trump administration unilaterally abandoned in 2018--while slowing the enrichment process. This may indicate that Tehran is prepared to come to a broader agreement with Washington and the European powers. Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, speaking at a televised news conference, said Tehran was committed to resolving its nuclear dispute with world powers through diplomacy, saying, “We have always wanted a return of all parties to full compliance of the 2015 nuclear deal.” These developments come after the US ramped up the pressure on Iran, even as Washington’s allies in the Gulf have normalized relations with Tehran. Saudi Arabia has reopened its embassy in Tehran, while Amir-Abdollahian has held talks with his counterpart in Riyadh.
Iran’s booming oil exports exceed 2m bpd: report - Tehran Times - Iran’s oil exports continue to increase in August, surging above two million barrels per day (bpd) which is their highest since the beginning of the year, Bloomberg reported on Monday citing TankerTrackers data. It was already known that Iran's shipments were surging, but the data for August would represent a marked leg higher if maintained for the remainder of the period. The flow rate for the past 28 days shows shipments running at a rate of 2.1 million barrels a day, the Bloomberg report said. As reported, TankerTrackers’ satellite images show a new surge in Iran's flows in August amid the reduction in the supplies of other top exporters. Bloomberg added that the increase in Iran's shipments will boost global supply when Saudi Arabia and Russia curb output. Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that China’s oil imports from Iran have been soaring in August so that the shipments are expected to reach 1.5 million bpd, the highest since 2013. Citing estimates from data intelligence firm Kpler, Blomberg put China’s imports of Iranian oil during the January-July 2023 period at 917,000 bpd on average. Iran has been ramping up oil exports this year as it becomes more geopolitically assertive, with most of the shipments heading to China, Bloomberg said. In late July, Kpler said that Iran’s oil shipments to China have more than tripled over the past three years despite the U.S. sanctions on the country and the increase in Russia’s shipments to the Asian country. According to the data analyzing firm, Iranian crude exports to its major trade partner have been hovering around one million bpd in 2023, while the figure was roughly 325,000 bpd in 2020. Also, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in a recent report titled "Oil 2023" confirmed Iran's daily export of one million barrels of oil to China, saying: “Despite severe financial restrictions, Iran managed to increase its crude oil production by about 140,000 barrels per day in 2022 to an average of 2.5 million barrels per day. It seems that Tehran has maintained its crude sales to China, which has been around one million barrels per day since the third quarter of last year.” According to official data, Iranian oil production also increased in the current year so that in May the country’s oil output reached 2.9 bpd, 350,000 bpd more than in 2022.
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