week ending Sep 16

Fed to leave rates unchanged on Sept. 20; cut unlikely before Q2 2024: Reuters poll (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at the end of its Sept. 19-20 policy meeting and probably wait until the April-June period of 2024 or later before cutting it, according to economists in a Reuters poll. Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored the "higher-for-longer" mantra for rates in a speech at the annual Jackson Hole central banking symposium in August and maintained another rate hike might still be needed to bring inflation down to the 2% target. But other members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), including some of the more hawkish ones, have raised the possibility of holding off on another rate hike to allow more time to gauge the impact of the cumulative 525 basis points of tightening delivered by the Fed since March 2022. More than 95% of economists, 94 of 97, in the Sept. 7-12 Reuters poll predicted the U.S. central bank would hold the federal funds rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range next week, in line with market expectations. Still, nearly 20% of the economists, 17 of 97, predicted at least one more rate rise before the end of the year, including three who expected one this month. "Though we continue to expect the Fed to remain on hold at the Sept. 20 FOMC meeting, we would not be surprised to see most officials continue to project one more rate hike by year-end in their updated 'dot plot,'" said Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, referring to the interest rate projections released by Fed policymakers on a quarterly basis. "While there has been meaningful progress to date on inflation ... the Fed will not be able to take this for granted." Much of the immediate outlook for Fed policy will depend on the release on Wednesday of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August. The CPI was expected to have risen 0.6% last month, after a 0.2% rise in July, according to economists polled by Reuters. If realized, that would mean an acceleration in the annual rate to 3.6% from 3.2%. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in August, raising hopes among those who don't want to see another rate hike that the U.S. labor market was finally cooling.But the Reuters poll of economists forecast that the jobless rate would average 3.7% this year and rise only slightly to 4.3% in 2024, suggesting the Fed even then will not be far off its goal of full employment.House prices and rents were also expected to remain elevated now that a relatively brief U.S. housing market correction appears to be over, according to a separate Reuters poll.That may put the brakes on further declines in inflation, which is not predicted to reach the Fed's target until at least 2025.That suggests rate cuts may still be a long way off.

Data may bias Fed to more rate hikes, ex-St. Louis Fed chief says (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials may have to revise higher forecasts of how far they'll have to raise interest rates given the unexpected strength of the U.S. economy and still sturdy levels of underlying inflation, a former U.S. central banker said. James Bullard, who was president of the St. Louis Fed from 2008 until leaving last month to lead Purdue University’s business school, wasn't ready to say how much higher the Fed might have to raise its collective view on interest rates, or when it would do so. But he told Reuters in an interview that the economy is biasing the central bank in that direction. Bullard, who had been a prominent hawk at the Fed in recent years in favor of aggressive rate hikes to curb high inflation, spoke on Wednesday after the release of consumer price index data for August that showed ongoing inflation pressures. Overall inflation rose 3.7% from a year ago on higher gasoline prices, while inflation stripped of food and energy items ebbed to a 4.3% year-on-year gain, from 4.7% in July, the Labor Department reported. The catch, as Bullard saw it, was the monthly change in the CPI was higher in August than it was in July. Core CPI gained 0.3% versus the prior month's 0.2% increase, while the monthly rise in overall CPI was 0.6% in August, compared to July's 0.2%. That development was "a little bit concerning," he said, adding that Fed officials want inflation to ease rather than quicken, and the CPI data "suggested that it's not going to come down as fast as they previously thought." "That might change the sentiment toward a somewhat higher trajectory for the interest rate path than would have otherwise been expected," Bullard said. The Fed is widely expected to leave its benchmark overnight interest rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range at the end of a two-day policy meeting next week. The central bank also will release updated policymaker projections for economic growth, inflation, unemployment and the federal funds rate. There is an active debate over whether the Fed has more to do on the monetary policy front into the close of the year, and markets are closely watching to see if officials remove, maintain or even push up the forecast made in June that the central bank would raise rates one more time this year beyond the quarter-percentage-point increase delivered in late July. Bullard said it's not just inflation biasing the Fed toward more action. He noted that many policymakers' expectations of weak activity over this year have not been borne out, so they'll need to upgrade their growth forecasts as a result. It's possible these upgraded forecasts won't change officials' monetary policy expectations, but it could also open the door toward penciling in more rate-hike action, he said.

For the Fed, taming inflation also means navigating a housing crisis --- Federal Reserve officials anticipate moderating housing costs driving disinflation in the months ahead, but a national shortage of homes could spoil those expectations. Last month, during his annual address in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the elevated housing costs captured by recent inflation readings do not reflect the central bank's true progress on curbing price growth in that sector. "The market rent slowdown has only recently begun to show through to that measure," Powell said. "The slowing growth in rents for new leases over roughly the past year can be thought of as 'in the pipeline' and will affect measured housing services inflation over the coming year." Economists agree that rent growth rates have slowed down since peaking during the pandemic years and that such a trend often takes time to show up in inflation reports, given how housing costs are measured. But some say the trajectory of where shelter costs are heading is muddied by shortages in most major markets across the country. The Fed's primary monetary policy tool — the federal funds rate — is used to influence consumer spending, to help steer demand for goods and services into alignment with their supply. For housing, which has been underbuilt since 2008 and artificially restricted with building codes and other localized rules for decades, supply is still well short of demand, KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk said. "Getting supply to meet demand in a market where supply has been so dramatically constrained — not just temporarily, but structurally for decades — is difficult," Swonk said. "We're a long way from the market being anywhere near in balance, and that's something the Fed has to watch because price is the ultimate equalizer, and prices don't come down when supply and demand are so far out of balance." The Fed's latest Beige Book, which compiles economic data from across the Federal Reserve System's regional reserve banks, stated that "nearly all districts" reported dealing with constrained for-sale housing supply. Many also noted headwinds on financing new housing construction, both for sale and for rent. While Fed officials have made no commitments about future rate hikes, recent readings on inflation data and employment figures have trended in a favorable direction and indicated that the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, could soon stop raising rates. The short supply of homes not only raises questions about the movement of prices in the months ahead, but also could also create issues for the Fed when the central bank decides to stop raising interest rates and, eventually, cut them. Swonk said other monetary authorities around the world have already had to quickly reverse course on policy changes after sharp rebounds in home buying activity. "It's forced other central banks to rethink and go back in and raise rates again," she said. "It's something the Fed is just concerned could be something that we have, especially given our extraordinary situation in the United States, where supply is so far below demand that it's even been below the suppressed level of demand that we have because of higher rates." Powell acknowledged this risk in his Jackson Hole speech, noting that "after decelerating sharply over the past 18 months, the housing sector is showing signs of picking back up," which "could warrant further tightening of monetary policy."

Yellen 'feeling very good' about soft landing for U.S. economy - — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she's increasingly confident that the U.S. will be able to contain inflation without major damage to the job market, hailing data showing a steady slowdown in inflation and a fresh influx of job seekers. "I am feeling very good about that prediction," Yellen said Sunday when asked about her previous hopes that the U.S. would avoid a recession while still reining in consumer-price gains. "I think you'd have to say we're on a path that looks exactly like that." Yellen is advancing the growing effort among administration officials looking to convince voters that Bidenomics is benefiting ordinary Americans, despite more than two years of punishing inflation. Speaking in an interview on her aircraft en route back from attending the Group of 20 summit in New Delhi, the Treasury chief also played down any risk from China's efforts to increase the sway from the separate BRICS grouping of major emerging nations. "The G-20 "remains the premier forum for global cooperation," she said. Yellen and President Joe Biden attended the gathering, which was skipped by China's President Xi Jinping, against the backdrop of a raft of positive data on the world's largest economy. Headline inflation has slowed toward 3% — though still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target — without any decline in payrolls or GDP. "Every measure of inflation is on the road down," Yellen said. She also highlighted that while the U.S. unemployment rate increased in August after reaching the lowest levels in more than a half-century earlier this year, that jump wasn't caused by a large wave of layoffs. The jobless rate hit 3.8% last month, thanks in part to an increase in the labor force participation rate to the highest level since February 2020, just as Covid began to spread.Seeing some easing in the labor market is "important and a good thing," and "it's a clear plus" that it's coming through more people looking for work, Yellen said. The data mark a validation of sorts for the Treasury chief, who has consistently said over the past year that she sees a path for inflation to get to the Fed's 2% target without a spike in joblessness. With other figures showing sustained gains in consumer spending and signs of stabilization in the housing market despite a surge in mortgage rates, economists have been abandoning or postponing their calls for a recession. For their part, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists now see just a 15% chance the US will slide into recession, down from 20% previously. Positive signs for the U.S. have contrasted with disappointing data from China that have suggested the world's No. 2 economy may not reach Beijing's target of 5% growth this year. Yellen reiterated her view that China's policymakers still have scope to step up if needed to support the economy. Xi's team has taken a number of measures to loosen strictures on the property market, but has stopped short of broad stimulus packages for consumer or sweeping interest-rate cuts. "I think they have quite a bit of policy space if they decide that it's necessary to use it," Yellen said in the interview. "They've made what to me seem like relatively small adjustments in monetary policy."

Fed losses breach $100 billion as interest costs rise (Reuters) - Federal Reserve losses breached the $100 billion mark, central bank data released on Thursday showed, and they're likely to go a lot higher before the red ink stops. The U.S. central bank is continuing to pay out more in interest costs than it takes in from the interest it earns on bonds it owns and from the services it provides to the financial sector. While there's considerable uncertainty around how it will all play out, some observers believe Fed losses, which began a year ago, could eventually as much as double before abating. William English, a former top central bank staffer now at Yale University, said he sees a "peak" loss of around $200 billion by 2025. Meanwhile, Derek Tang of forecasting firm LH Meyer said the loss is likely to be between $150 billion and $200 billion by next year. The Fed captures its losses in what it calls a deferred asset, an accounting measure that tallies what it will eventually have to cover in the future before it can return to its normal practice of returning its profits to the Treasury. Losing money is very rare for the Fed. But at the same time, the central bank has cautioned many times that the situation in no way impairs its ability to conduct monetary policy and to achieve its goals. A money-losing Fed has not been a surprise given its aggressive campaign to raise interest rates, which has taken the benchmark overnight interest rate from the near-zero level in March 2022 to its current 5.25%-5.50% range. With inflation pressures ebbing, it's widely expected that the Fed is done with its rate increases, or close to it. But that doesn't mean that the losses will stop mounting, as the current level of short-term rates will drive up the net negative income for quite some time. Instead, the losses will eventually stop primarily due to the Fed's ongoing process of shrinking its balance sheet, which complements its rate hikes. The Fed bought bonds aggressively during the coronavirus pandemic and its immediate aftermath, and in just over the last year it has shed about $1 trillion in Treasury and mortgage bonds. Fed officials have suggested there's more to do on this front, and because of that, the central bank will have to spend less on interest because it is removing liquidity from the financial system. Financial markets are eyeing a stop in the second or third quarter of 2024. The liquidity targeted by the Fed primarily exists in the form of bank reserves and in inflows to the central bank's reverse repo facility. Through these tools, the Fed pays a mix of banks, money managers and others to park cash on its books, so if liquidity shrinks, it costs the central bank less to tie up what remains, even if its policy rate doesn't change. "The pace of losses will come down, even if interest rates stay high, because reserves and (reverse repos) are declining as securities run off, and new purchases of securities are earning the new, higher, rates," English said. But he acknowledged "that's all very rough" given how many factors and uncertainties are at play. Bank reserves have fallen about $1 trillion from their peak at the end of 2021 and stood at $3.3 trillion as of Wednesday. Meanwhile, the reverse repo daily outstanding levels have fallen from more than $2 trillion a day between June 2022 and the end of June this year to $1.5 trillion on Thursday. Money market trading firm Curvature Securities said in a research note this week that it's possible all the money will be out of reverse repos by the end of next year, returning the facility to where it stood just over two years ago.

PPI and CPI preview: why Paul Krugman’s “Goldilocks” economy is likely to prove “transitory” I have taken the position that what has been, indeed, “very different” this time is that the very big - close to 10% - YoY decline in commodity prices has not been due to demand destruction, but rather to the unclogging of the post-pandemic supply pipeline. Two graphs showed up yesterday in support of that proposition. First, Mike Konczai of the Roosevelt Institute decomposed sectors of the GDP to see whether each showed price declines, and if so, whether there was more or less demand. Less demand would mean demand destruction. More supply would mean an increase in quantity supplied. And here’s the result: Particularly when it comes to goods, he wrote that 2/3’s of sectors showed increased demand. In short, the main driver of price declines was increased supply, not demand destruction. Kevin Drum picked up on that with the below graph comparing the 3 month average of core inflation with the Goldman Sachs supply chain pressure index: As he points out, inflation was already high before the 2021 stimulus ever took effect. And as supply chain pressure turned negative (below 0), the rate of inflation declined. This is simply very persuasive evidence that a great deal of the improvement in the economy in the past year has been the sharp disinflation due to the end of supply chain pressures (except possibly in the motor vehicle sector, which is its own story). To return to the inflation reports, I am most interested in whether the producer price report tells us that the big decline in commodity prices is over. There have only been two increases in commodity prices in the past 12 months: I suspect we’ll get #3 tomorrow. If producer prices have stopped declining, then the tailwind I have described above has ebbed, and maybe ended. As to consumer prices, I am most interested in the relative weights of decelerating shelter increases (which as I have written many times are well-forecasted by the more current home price indexes and new rent indexes) vs. increasing gas prices (/10 for scale in the graph below): I suspect that the increase in gas prices is going to outweigh the deceleration in fictitious shelter inflation. If so, that will mean that there is an actual slight increase in a headwind in consumer prices. Put that together with the fact that the effect of most of the Fed’s interest rate hikes have not been fully manifested in the economy yet, and the “immaculate disinflation” or “Goldilocks” economy as described by Paul Krugman in this morning’s NY Times is going to prove to be very, ahem, transitory.>

How a shutdown could blindfold the Fed - Government funding gridlock is threatening to deprive the Federal Reserve of key data sources at a crucial time for the economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics won’t collect or publish data such as unemployment numbers and the Consumer Price Index in the event of a shutdown, a spokesperson said. And the Bureau of Economic Analysis may face the same restrictions if a 2021 shutdown contingency plan is any indication. Economists warn that the loss of information about the labor market and inflation could hamper the Fed as it weighs how much further it needs to slow the economy to bring down prices. Former Fed research official David Wilcox, now with Bloomberg Economics and the Peterson Institute, said it’s particularly unfortunate at the moment, “given the heightened risk of a recession getting underway in the next few months.” “It’s never a good time to fly blind,” “It’s particularly bad when you’re trying to land.” Should the shutdown last more than a few weeks, economists predict the Fed could hold off on raising interest rates until it has a better idea of how the labor market is performing. They warn the uncertainty could spook investors. “Several officials and leaders at the Fed have indicated that they’re really data-dependent right now in determining what interest rate decisions to make in the months ahead,” said Andrew Lautz, senior policy analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center. “Not having this data available on time and at their fingertips — it does have a negative impact.”

The Budget Deficit is an absurd calculation -by Robert Waldmann -The budget deficit is the change in the nominal face value of public debt. It is roughly unique (as far as I know) being the change in a quantity which is not corrected for inflation. We do not usually talk about nominal GDP growth or nominal wage growth. The sustainable deficit increases one for one in debt*inflation, so the term should be removed if one is thinking of long term sustainability.I think the reason the absurd number is used is that it is high, so deficit hawks, deficit peacocks, and very serious people like it. Here is the value of US Federal Government debt in 2nd quarter 2023 dollars (deflated with the GDP deflator) Notice that it used to increase then ceased to increase abouit exactly when Joeseph Biden was inaugurated. This is a much more relevant series than the nominal debt (do we focus on nominal anything else — at all ?). I was surprised to see this graph. Why ?I think one thing is that it is not at all alarming – so very serious people don’t discuss it. Even more importantly, it shows that the US Federal Government can, in fact, inflate away its debts. THere are long term Treasuries owned by private investors. An increase in inflation causes an increase in nominal interest rates, that is a decrease in the market price of those treasury bonds notes and bills. This causes a capital loss for the investors (some of which were banks which then went bankrupt). It does not affect the debt (face value of the treasury securities) or interest paid on that debt (coupons fixed in dollars).Expected inflation is neutral (it reduces the amount the Treasury gets when it auctions bonds so the real cost of borrowing for the Treasury remains the same. Unexpected inflation is windfall for the Treasury and a loss for those who bought expecting low inflation. This fact is unmentionable — even considering the possibility of inflating away debt is an unforgivable sin in the very serious village.I guess another explanation is politics. It doesn’t do to say that sure the deficit is high but so is inflation so it’s OK. Both budget deficits and (especially) inflation are hated. Back in the 70s when I was a kid, I didn’t understand why people hated inflation or accepted a severe recession as a cure. I still don’t (effort to understand in another post).Here is the annual change in the real debt (in 2023 Q2 dollars deflated with the GDP deflator) Notice it is only negative under budget bills signed by Joe Biden or Bill Clinton.The really important (and actually often discussed) variable is the ratio of the debt to GDP. This really determines sustainability — for the taxman it doesn’t matter whether GDP increases due to inflation or real GDP growth. However, the next amazing figure is not well known either (it is available on FRED without any work required)

Congress reconvenes amid budget crisis as US federal deficit doubles -- Members of the US House of Representatives return to Washington on Tuesday with only three weeks, including 12 days of scheduled legislative sessions, before the end of the 2023 fiscal year on September 30. At that point, unless a new budget is passed, or a “continuing resolution” to authorize further government spending, the federal government will begin a partial shutdown. The stage has been set for yet another round of political theater over the budget deficit, in which the Republicans will posture as the defenders of “fiscal responsibility” (which never includes cuts in the bloated Pentagon budget), while Democrats posture as advocates of “fairness” and “compassion” (knowing that any proposed tax increases on the wealthy or social spending for the poor can never be enacted because of Republican opposition). This degraded process will end, as it always does, with further cuts in social spending, while the military and the super-rich, the two principal clients of both capitalist parties, go entirely unscathed. The political conflict over the budget has been exacerbated by two reports released on September 6 indicating that the federal deficit for the current fiscal year will double, from $1 trillion in fiscal 2022 (October 1, 2021 through September 30, 2022) to $2 trillion in fiscal 2023. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported that the US Treasury had already borrowed $1.6 trillion in the current fiscal year, with nearly two months to go. The CBO projected a full-year deficit of $1.7 trillion, with spending up 10 percent over fiscal 2022 and revenues down 10 percent. The same day, the right-wing think tank Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said that it was projecting a $2 trillion deficit by September 30. The group said that by its calculations, federal spending was up 16 percent compared to a year ago, while revenues were down 7 percent. The CBO estimated that individual income and payroll taxes would drop by $313 billion this year, largely due to the decline in the stock market last year, which slashed capital gains taxes and reduced taxable income for corporations. At the same time, remittances from the Federal Reserve to the Treasury—effectively, profits from its lending to banks—fell by $98 billion. This is largely due to the effect of higher interest rates on the home mortgage market. The main components of the increase in spending from FY 2022 to FY 2023 included:

• $244 billion from a 12 percent rise in the total cost of the three main entitlement programs—Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. This had two main contributing factors: continued high rates of retirement among the “baby boom” generation, and a continuing pandemic-related ban on states removing Medicaid recipients from the rolls—a prohibition that the Biden administration allowed to expire in May.
• $146 billion from a 34 percent increase in interest payments on federal debt, largely due to the extremely rapid rise in interest rates. The CBO now estimates that the federal government will pay $10 trillion in interest over the next ten years, a staggering sum that will go largely to wealthy investors and big banks.
• $100 billion or more in military spending. There is an increase of $67 billion for the regular Pentagon budget. A further sum, not yet estimated but perhaps as large, is due to increased military and financial aid to Ukraine and other fiscal consequences of the US-NATO proxy war against Russia.
• $91 billion from a one-time increase in spending by the Department of Education. This is a budget anomaly, as the Biden administration chose to record the entire long-term cost of its reduction in student loan debt in the month of July. This sum amounts to just over 5 percent of the $1.7 trillion in total student loan debt. The latest figures have fueled demands from the Republican Party and the corporate media—including publications closely aligned with the Democratic Party—for urgent action to slash the deficit through major cuts in domestic social spending, particularly in the entitlement programs that constitute the major social support for the elderly, disabled and sick.

Senate’s initial batch of funding bills overcomes first procedural hurdle - The Senate cleared an initial batch of funding bills past their first procedural hurdle Tuesday, with little more than two weeks out until a looming deadline to prevent a shutdown. Senators voted 85-12 to invoke cloture on a motion to proceed to three out of 12 annual government funding bills, a relatively small step but one that marked the first test for what’s being called a minibus across the finish line. The legislative package proposes billions of dollars in funding for a slew of agencies, including the departments of Veterans Affairs (VA); Transportation (USDOT); and Housing and Urban Development (HUD), as well as the Food and Drug Administration. The largest bill, which covers funding for military construction and the VA, offers more than $120 billion for VA medical care for the coming fiscal year. Appropriators have also lauded its historic boosts to military construction and family housing projects. The package also sets aside nearly $100 in funding for the USDOT, HUD and related agencies, with some increases for the Federal Aviation Administration, Maritime Administration, homeless assistance grants and Section 8 vouchers. Each of the bills passed with overwhelming bipartisan support in committee, with members on both sides cheering what they tout as a return to “regular order” after the Senate Appropriations Committee marked up and approved all 12 funding bills this year. The feat marked the first time in five years that the committee reported all of the bills out of committee. “I think one of the demands from Senate conservatives the last time we passed an omnibus was to not do it that way,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), whose appropriations subcommittee oversees funding for housing and transportation, told The Hill on Tuesday. “And so we took that seriously. But it’s easier said than done.” “We have a long way to go, but this is the closest we’ve come to regular order since I’ve been here,” said Schatz, who has served in the Senate since 2012.

GOP senators: Next move to avert shutdown is on McCarthy - The Senate plans to fire up old-fashioned floor debate this week on bipartisan funding bills, but that technically does nothing to address the biggest problem on Congress’ plate: avoiding a government shutdown. The first move there, GOP senators say, is up to Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The Senate will take its first procedural votes Tuesday on a nearly $280 billion government funding package that has broad bipartisan support. Leaders hope the legislation will display a united front amid the spending standoff with House Republicans, as the two chambers snipe over a deal that will keep the government’s lights on past a Sept. 30 deadline. Congressional leaders agree they’ll need a stopgap bill to accomplish that, but House conservatives are already agitating to make passage of such a funding patch impossible without major concessions that will never reach President Joe Biden’s desk. Still, Republican senators want to see McCarthy pass his version first — and even Democrats acknowledge they’re waiting to see the speaker’s next move. “We’ve got to let the House give it a college try. If they fail, we’ll have to do something,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C) said Monday night. Case in point: The House Freedom Caucus plans to hammer home its funding demands with conservative groups outside the Capitol on Tuesday afternoon. McCarthy’s right flank has called for billions of dollars in additional spending cuts and major policy changes, such as GOP reforms at the southern border in exchange for funding the government, or measures that would slash budgets at Biden’s Justice Department and the FBI. House GOP leaders hope to placate their fractious conference and pass a funding bill for the Pentagon this week. But even if they could manage to pass that legislation, it stands no chance in the Senate — and the White House already threatened on Monday to veto it. The White House accused House Republicans of “wasting time” by advancing measures that look to cut tens of billions of dollars from the two-year budget agreement negotiated by Biden and McCarthy earlier this summer. The Senate’s bipartisan spending bills would adhere to those levels, and even include billions of dollars in extra emergency cash to pad out the Pentagon’s budget, along with other agencies. Lawmakers in both parties are anxious to see how McCarthy steers his splintered caucus when House lawmakers return Tuesday night after six weeks away. Conservatives feel particularly burned by McCarthy’s debt agreement with Biden, which passed with Democratic support, and are warning that such an outcome is unacceptable this time around — openly threatening the California Republican’s hold on the gavel. “We’re all trying to give as much space as possible to the House to determine how they want to proceed,” Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), his party’s whip in the Senate, told reporters Monday night. Any action on a short-term funding bill to avert a shutdown on Oct. 1 will likely happen at the last minute, Thune said. Both chambers will also have to wrestle over the Biden administration’s request for $16 billion in disaster aid, more than $24 billion in funding for Ukraine and billions of dollars in border assistance.

Conservative mutiny forces delay in House Pentagon spending bill --House Republican infighting forced Speaker Kevin McCarthy to pump the brakes on the chamber’s annual defense funding bill Wednesday, with no guarantee party leaders will find the votes to advance it. The right-wing $826 billion defense appropriations bill was scheduled to come to the House floor Wednesday afternoon. But that plan was scrapped with conservative lawmakers still not on board, leaving the bill short of the support needed to survive an initial procedural vote. The measure could still come to the floor in a later vote series, but there are no signs of a deal between McCarthy and his right-wing critics that would shake the bill loose. The dispute has little to do with the Pentagon bill itself, which Republicans loaded with culture war provisions to appeal to conservatives. But with a potential shutdown looming, McCarthy is facing a litany of demands from his right flank on how to handle federal spending talks with the Senate to avert a funding lapse. A misstep could spur detractors to push to strip McCarthy of his gavel. “Nobody’s objecting to what’s in the bill,” said House Rules Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.). “Everybody’s trying to leverage the bill for something now.” Republican leaders whipped the defense bill Tuesday night and talks continued Wednesday. The House Rules Committee teed up 184 amendments to the bill Tuesday evening, paving the way for debate on the legislation. But there were plenty of signs early on that Republicans didn’t have the votes. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus and the Rules Committee, broke with Republicans and voted against the amendment package Tuesday night. Norman and Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) told reporters they plan to vote against the rule to begin debate on the defense bill. Bishop and other members of the Freedom Caucus were demanding a plan from leaders to make steep cuts in areas of the budget outside defense. “We all concede defense is going to continue to rise. But the exchange for that has to be we have to make cuts in other areas of the bureaucracy,” Bishop said. “Once the entire package is ready and I can see it and I can see that everybody’s prepared to move it, then I’m prepared to move individual bills.” McCarthy can afford only four GOP defections on any vote for the spending bill. Democrats oppose the legislation because Republicans loaded it with provisions taking aim at the Pentagon’s abortion travel policy, medical treatment for transgender troops and diversity programs. President Joe Biden has threatened to veto the bill, though the partisan legislation would never clear the Democratic Senate and make it to the president’s desk in its current form. Members of the House Freedom Caucus, meanwhile, insisted that McCarthy take a harder line in a spending confrontation with Biden and the Senate. The right-wing faction railed against the possibility of a “clean” stopgap bill to keep the government open past the end of September, pushing for concessions on the border and slashing funding for the social programs they’ve targeted at the Pentagon, as well as steep spending cuts. “We need to know what the topline levels are gonna be across the board and know what the plan is going to be to negotiate with the Senate and how we get these done,” said Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas). McCarthy is also looking to clear GOP-led spending bills to strengthen the House’s hand in the upcoming shutdown fight. Passing the conservative defense bill would be just the second annual government spending bill to clear the House this year. Republican leaders made a bid to shore up hard-right support for the defense bill by setting up votes on a variety of conservative amendments, including proposals that target Biden administration officials, diversity programs and Ukraine funding. If the bill heads to the floor, lawmakers will vote on Norman’s amendment to block funding for all Pentagon offices related to diversity, equity and inclusion. Roy, another Freedom Caucus member, will get a vote on his proposal to block Defense Department funding for the observance of Pride Month.

McCarthy drops f-bomb, venting frustration with GOP members - House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) vented his frustration about the hard-line conservatives holding up appropriations, dropping an expletive as he dared his fiercest critics to attempt a vote to oust him. During a closed-door conference meeting Thursday, McCarthy addressed an uptick in threats from members to call a motion to vacate the chair — a move to force a vote on ousting the Speaker. “If you want to file a motion to vacate, then file the f‑‑‑ing motion,” McCarthy said, Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.) recounted. McCarthy’s comments follow Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) earlier this week explicitly threatening to call a motion to vacate if McCarthy does not follow through with a number of spending priorities and votes on bills that his detractors were promised in January. And it also comes after hard-line conservatives, who have been battling with GOP leadership for months over topline numbers in spending bills, forced GOP leaders to punt consideration of a Department of Defense (DOD) appropriations bill Wednesday. “I showed frustration in here because I am frustrated,” McCarthy told reporters after the meeting. “Frustrated with some people in the conference.” “We had the DOD appropriations bill yesterday, couldn’t put it on the floor,” McCarthy said. “I don’t have one complaint by any member of what’s wrong with this bill.” The battles are playing out against the backdrop of a potential government shutdown deadline of Sept. 30 if Congress cannot pass a stopgap government funding bill — which the House Freedom Caucus has also put demands on. The House departs after Thursday for the weekend in observance of Rosh Hashanah. “But when we come back, we’re not going to leave,” McCarthy said. Gaetz fired back at McCarthy. “Instead of emotionally cursing, maybe the Speaker should just keep his word from January on balanced budgets, term limits and single-subject spending bills,” Gaetz told The Hill. Earlier this week, McCarthy referenced his apparent belief that Gaetz wants him to intervene in an open House Ethics Committee investigation into the Florida congressman. “He can threaten all he wants. I will not interject the Speaker into the independent Ethics Committee to influence it any way at all,” McCarthy told reporters. The Speaker is not the only member who is frustrated. “We don’t try to air our laundry but again, you know, to that point, if somebody wants to file a motion to vacate, then file the f‑‑‑ing motion to vacate, and that’s it,” Mast told reporters following the Thursday morning meeting. “And stop holding up everybody’s work, stop holding it, you know, over people’s head like it’s, you know, like, it’s this noose that you’re going to try to get somebody to walk into.” “Get to work with the conference; if you have a direction that you want to take, then step up in front of the microphone and voice what that direction is that you want to take,” Mast continued. “Otherwise, get the f‑‑‑ out of the way.” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who has become a close McCarthy ally and was ousted from the Freedom Caucus over the summer, echoed that sentiment, saying that conservatives making demands should raise them with the conference — calling out some of the hard-liners for not attending the meeting. “If we’re going to be able to do our job, we need every single member in our conference to show up and face everyone else, and then we can work out our differences and fund the government,” Greene said.

Greene: ‘I’m not a member of the burn-it-all-down caucus anymore’ - Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) on Thursday dubbed the House Freedom Caucus the “burn-it-all-down caucus,” a swipe at the conservative group that ousted her from its ranks over the summer. “I’m not a member of the burn-it-all-down caucus anymore,” Greene told reporters. “I’m a greatly, very happily a free agent and I want to do my job here.” Members of the caucus voted to boot Greene from their ranks over the summer after the Georgia Republican supported the debt limit bill that Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and President Biden crafted to avoid a default, which drew ire from many in the right flank — some of whom are members of the caucus. Her ouster also came after she clashed with Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), a member of the caucus. Greene called Boebert a “little b—-” after the Colorado Republican unexpectedly forced a vote on her articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Greene criticized Boebert for not explaining her decision to the House GOP conference, and she said her Colorado colleague copied her articles of impeachment targeting Mayorkas. Greene’s removal from the conservative group marked a significant moment in her evolution on Capitol Hill. The Georgia Republican came to Congress in 2021 as a rabble rouser, quickly becoming a conservative thorn in the side of GOP leadership. But last year she emerged as a close ally of McCarthy, supporting his bid for the Speakership and urging against any internal challenge — a stark difference from many of her colleagues in the Freedom Caucus, whose demands of McCarthy and support for other members led to the historic 15-ballot election. Greene’s swipe at the Freedom Caucus came one day after a coalition of conservatives — some of whom are members of the conservative group — said they would withhold support from a procedural vote on legislation to fund the Pentagon over demands on spending, which led GOP leadership in the House to punt the vote. Greene on Thursday suggested in a post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, that she would not support the spending bill because it includes funding for Ukraine, which she opposes. But the congresswoman nonetheless expresses frustration with her conservative colleagues following a closed-door GOP conference meeting. “A lot of my colleagues that are saying those things weren’t even in that room, so they weren’t there to hear any of the conversation nor raise their concerns,” Greene said after emerging from the meeting. “They can’t stand out and hold press conferences but not attend our conference meetings and expect to work things out.” Asked if she is frustrated with their participation on the appropriations process, Greene said she was no longer a member of the “burn-it-all-down” caucus.

Milley Says Time Is Running Out for Ukraine's Counteroffensive - Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said Sunday that Ukraine’s counteroffensive could only have 30-45 days left before the assault is hindered by weather.“There’s still a reasonable amount of time, probably about 30 to 45 days’ worth of fighting weather left, so the Ukrainians aren’t done,”Milley told BBC. “There’s battles not done… they haven’t finished the fighting part of what they’re trying to accomplish.”He said it was still too early to tell if the counteroffensive had failed and claimed Ukrainian forces were “progressing at a very steady pace through the Russian front lines.” But since the assault was launched in early June, Ukraine has not regained a significant amount of territory.US officials speaking to the media anonymously have been more candid about Ukraine’s faltering offensive, with some telling The Washington Post that US intelligence has determined Ukraine will fail to meet its main objective of severing Russia’s land bridge to Crimea.Last month, Newsweek reported that Ukrainian leadership was divided on how to move forward in light of the faltering counteroffensive. Some officials wanted to consolidate what small gains they’ve made to prepare for an expected Russian offensive this winter, while others wanted to press on.Since the Newsweek report was published, Ukrainian forces have continued to launch attacks across the front, taking heavy losses. “I said at the very beginning of this that this was going to be long, slow, hard, and high-casualty-producing, and that’s exactly what it is,” Milley told BBC.

Blinken: US Does Not Oppose Ukraine Targeting Russian Territory With US-Provided Missiles - Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that it was up to Ukraine whether or not to target Russian territory with US-provided weapons, a policy that brings the US and Russia closer to a direct clash.Blinken made the comments after ABC News reported that it’s likely the Biden administration will soon arm Ukraine with Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which have a range of up to 190 miles.While appearing on ABC’s ‘This Week,’ Blinken was asked if he was OK with Ukraine using ATACMS to hit targets deep inside Russian territory. “In terms of their targeting decisions, it’s their decision, not ours,”Blinken replied.When asked about the increasing Ukrainian drone attacks inside Russia, Blinken claimed the US does not “encourage” or “enable” the operations. However, The Economist recently reported that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia frequently use intelligence gathered by Kyiv’s Western backers.As the war has dragged on, the Biden administration has been less and less concerned about the risk of Ukrainian attacks inside Russia escalating the war. The administration previously feared that Russia could respond to such attacks by targeting a NATO country. The US has also brushed off Russian warnings against providing Ukraine with longer-range missiles, as Moscow has previously called them a “red line.” According to a US official speaking to ABC, the ATACMS “are coming.”

Sen. Warren Calls for Probe Into Musk for Preventing Attack on Russian Fleet - Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has called for an investigation into SpaceX CEO Elon Musk after it was revealed he declined to activate his satellite internet service Starlink for a Ukrainian attack on the Russian Black Sea fleet in Crimea.The incident took place in September 2022 and was revealed by excerpts from a new biography of Musk. According to Musk, Ukraine made an emergency request to activate Starlink near Sevastopol, Crimea, and the clear implication was that it was for an attack on Russian warships. He denied the request over fears of escalating the war.“Congress needs to investigate what’s happened here, and whether we have adequate tools to make sure foreign policy is conducted by the government and not by one billionaire,” Warren said on Monday.Ukrainian officials have slammed Musk for disrupting a planned attack on Russia’s fleet. Musk said Starlink was never meant to be used for war, although his company began shipping thousands of terminals to Ukraine shortly after Russia invaded in February 2022.At the time of the incident, SpaceX was providing the Starlink service to Ukraine on its own and was not under a contract with the US military. But since then, the Pentagon began footing the bill for Ukraine’s Starlink service and entered a contract with SpaceX, the details of which have not been disclosed.Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said Monday that the September 2022 incident raised concerns within the Pentagon about the need to be more specific when it comes to contracting services from companies like SpaceX. “If we’re going to rely upon commercial architectures or commercial systems for operational use, then we have to have some assurances that they’re going to be available,” he said.

Senate Armed Services Committee ‘Aggressively’ Investigating Elon Musk - Senator Jack Reed is leading an aggressive probe into Elon Musk and SpaceX’s role in the American war industry. The investigation stems from an incident where SpaceX declined a request from the Ukrainian government to extend the range of Starlink for an attack on Russia. That incident has been widely misreported as Musk ordering SpaceX to deactivate Starlink to thwart the Ukrainian attack.On Thursday, Senator Reed said his committee had launched an “aggressive probe” of Musk. “The committee is aggressively probing this issue from every angle,” he said. “Neither Elon Musk, nor any private citizen, can have the last word when it comes to U.S. national security.”The investigation stems from a portion of a biography about Elon Musk written by Walter Isaacson. Initially, Isaacson reported that in September of 2022, Musk directed SpaceX to deactivate Starlink communications near the Crimean Peninsula to stop a Ukrainian attack on the Russian naval fleet that was underway.However, Isaacson has since admitted his original account of the incident was “mischaracterized.” Musk had declined to extend Starlink’s range to Crimea after Kyiv made an emergency request. Isaacson said that the decision was consistent with previous messages SpaceX delivered to Ukraine about the range of Starlink.Starlink is a product offered by SpaceX that allows users to connect to the internet by connecting to satellites in low orbit. The system was designed to provide internet for civilian uses. However, SpaceX does allow Kyiv to use the system to allow for communication with the Ukrainian military. After the Russian invasion of Kyiv, Musk provided Starlink to Ukraine free of charge.Still, the media and politicians have used this incident to attack Musk. A letter issued by Senators Jeanne Shaheen, Elizabeth Warren and Tammy Duckworth suggests Musk deactivated Starlink at the behest of the Kremlin. “According to public reports, Mr. Isaacson claims that Mr. Musk – after “conversations with senior Russian officials… interfered with the operation of Starlink services because of his concerns about the impact of the Ukrainian military’s operational decision-making as Ukraine has been defending itself from an illegal and unprovoked Russian invasion.”While Isaacson says Musk held conversations with Russian officials, there is no evidence from his account that SpaceX’s decision was due to the Kremlin’s urging. SpaceX’s terms of service explain that, due to US law, Starlink cannot be used to carry out military attacks. Additionally, Musk said his concern that Russia would escalate to nuclear war, not that he did not want Russian ships destroyed.“Starlink is not designed or intended for use with or in offensive or defensive weaponry or other comparable end-uses. Custom modifications of the Starlink Kits or Services for military end-uses or military end-users may transform the items into products controlled under U.S. export control laws, specifically the International Traffic in Arms Regulations or the Export Administration Regulations requiring authorizations from the United States government for the export, support, or use outside the United States. Starlink aftersales support to customers is limited exclusively to standard commercial service support. At its sole discretion, Starlink may refuse to provide technical support to any modified Starlink products and is grounds for termination of this Agreement.”Additionally, Musk says that he would have granted the request to extend the range of Starlink had it been made by the White House. At the time of the incident, SpaceX provided the Starlink service directly to Ukraine for free and was not under a contract with the US military. Since the September 2022 incident, the Pentagon has purchased Starlink directly from SpaceX, which allows the US government to determine what Ukraine can do with the system.

Biden calls for stability in U.S.-China relationship: "I don't want to contain China" - — President Biden said Sunday that he is seeking stability in the contentious U.S.-China relationship while he visited the region to strengthen U.S. ties with China's neighbors. "I don't want to contain China," Mr. Biden told reporters during a news conference in Hanoi, Vietnam. "I just want to make sure that we have a relationship with China that is on the up and up squared away, everybody knows what it's all about." Mr. Biden visited India for the G20 summit before traveling to Vietnam to upgrade the relationship between the two countries to a comprehensive strategic partnership. The designation puts the U.S. on the same level with Hanoi as China and Russia. "Having India cooperate much more with the United States, be closer to the United States, Vietnam being closer with the United States, it's not about containing China. It's about having a stable base, a stable base in Indo-Pacific," he said. Mr. Biden insisted that building partnerships in the region was not about isolating or hurting China, saying "we think too much in Cold War terms." Chinese President Xi Jinping was absent from the G20 summit in New Delhi, but Mr. Biden said he met with Premier Li Qiang, who serves in the country's No. 2 post. Mr. Biden said the two discussed "stability." "I want to see China succeed economically," Mr. Biden said. "But I want to see them succeed by the rules." Vice President Kamala Harris, who met last week with Asian leaders at a summit in Jakarta, said tension in any relationship should be expected when there's "competition of any sort." "But that does not mean that we are seeking conflict," she told "Face the Nation" in an interview that aired Sunday.

China preparing for war with US, Air Force secretary says -Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall on Monday warned that China was building up its military to prepare for a potential war with the U.S., and he said America must optimize its forces to counter the rising threat. Speaking at the Air and Space Forces Association Warfighter Symposium at National Harbor, Md., Kendall said the U.S. must be ready for a “kind of war we have no modern experience with,” though he stressed “war is not inevitable.” “Our job is to deter that war and to be ready to win if it occurs,” Kendall said. “We’re all talking about the fact that the Air and Space Forces must change, or we could fail to prevent and might even lose a war.” Kendall said it was vital to prepare for war because China is developing its forces at a rapid pace and has created two new military branches: a force designed to counter aircraft carriers, airfields and other critical assets, and a strategic support service that works to achieve information dominance in the space and cyber domains. The Air Force secretary said, “China has been reoptimizing its forces for great power competition and to prevail against the U.S. in the Western Pacific for over 20 years.” “China has been building a military capability specifically designed to achieve their national goals and to do so if opposed by the United States,” he added. U.S.-China relations have reached a low point amid rising tensions over the self-governing island nation of Taiwan, which Beijing sees as historically part of the mainland. The U.S. has warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping may seize the island by force if necessary, and President Biden has repeatedly said the U.S. would send troops to help defend the island in such a scenario. Washington maintains informal ties with Taiwan and has provided advanced weaponry to the nation. Kendall joins other Pentagon and U.S. military officials in warning of a potential war with China, possibly in this decade. “The Air Force and Space Force are incredibly capable, but we need to reoptimize the department for greater power projection and for great power competition,” he said in his remarks. “The war we need to be most ready for, if we want to optimize our readiness to deter or respond to the pacing challenge, is not the type of conflict we have been focused on for many years,” he added. “If our power projection capability and capacity are not adequate to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan or elsewhere, war could occur. If it does, and we cannot prevail, the results could cast a long shadow.”

Air Force Secretary Says US Military Needs to Change to Win Future War With China - Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall warned Monday that the US military might not be prepared for a future war with China since it has spent so much time focused on counterterrorism.“The threat of attack from violent extremist organizations still exists, and we will address those threats as they occur. But China is by far our pacing challenge,” Kendall said at an Air & Space Forces Association conference, according to Fox News.“Our job is to deter that war and to be ready to win if it occurs,” he said. “We’re all talking about the fact that the Air and Space Forces must change, or we could fail to prevent and might even lose a war.”Kendall’s comments are the latest example of a US official discussing openly that the US is preparing for a future direct war with China despite the risk of nuclear escalation. Last year, President Biden pledged he would send troops to defend Taiwan if China attacked the island, a highly provocative statement that was not walked back by the White House.Kendall warned that China has been preparing for a fight in its own backyard. “China has been re-optimizing its forces for great power competition and to prevail against the US in the Western Pacific for over 20 years. China has been building a military capability specifically designed to achieve their national goals and to do so if opposed by the United States,” he said.Since taking his post as Air Force secretary in 2021, Kendall has been focused on China. After he was sworn in, Kendall said he wanted the US military to develop new technologies to “scare China” and said he had three priorities: “China, China, and China.”

US and Canadian Warships Sail Through Taiwan Strait - A US and Canadian warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Saturday, a transit condemned by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).The US Navy’s Seventh Fleet said the guided-missile destroyer USS Ralph Johnson made the transit along with the Canadian frigate HMCS Ottawa. “The ships transited through a corridor in the strait that is beyond the territorial sea of any coastal state,” the Seventh Fleet said.US transits of the Taiwan Strait are common, but they are vehemently opposed by China. In recent years, Canada has been frequently joining the US in its Taiwan Strait provocations, and the US Coast Guard has also appeared in the sensitive waterway.A spokesman for the PLA said the US and Canada “hyped up” their latest Taiwan Strait transit and that Chinese troops were on high alert in response. “The Eastern Theatre Command of China’s PLA organized naval and air forces to trail their entire course and stand alert in accordance with laws and regulations,” said Col. Shi Yi.“Troops in the theatre remain on constant high alert, and will resolutely protect national sovereignty and security as well as regional peace and stability,” Shi added.On Monday, a Chinese aircraft carrier sailed about 60 nautical miles to the south of Taiwan, a move Taiwanese analysts told The South China Morning Post was a response to the US and Canadian transit through the Strait and other US military activity in the region. The warship, the Shandong, was joined by more than a dozen PLA aircraft.China has significantly stepped up its military activity around Taiwan since then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made a provocative visit to the island in August 2022. China’s increasing pressure on Taiwan is a direct response to the growing diplomatic and military ties between the US and Taiwan, which Beijing views as a violation of Washington’s one-China policy.

US Air Force Clearing Out Jungles in Pacific for New Airfields - The head of US Pacific Air Forces said Monday that the Air Force was clearing out jungles in the Pacific to build new airfields and restore old ones as part of the branch’s preparation for war with China in the region.The Air Force is working to expand its bases as part of a plan to become more mobile in the Pacific, a concept known as Agile Combat Employment (ACE). Pacific Air Forces Commander Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach said the Air Force is looking for more money to facilitate the military buildup.“We’re going to be clearing out the jungle [and] we’re going to be resurfacing some of the surfaces there so that we will have a fairly large and very functional Agile Combat Employment base, an additional base to be able to operate from and we have several other projects like that around the region that we’ll be getting after,” he said at the Air & Space Forces Association’s Air, Space & Cyber conference, according to Defense One.“That takes resources to be able to accomplish and so those are some of the resources that I argue for when I go back to the headquarters,” Wilsbach added. He said the Air Force requested funds for additional construction in the Pacific for its 2024 military budget.Wilsbach said that every new base in the region is a new area China would have to target. “Every single additional airfield that I can operate from is another in a contingency or crisis, or a conflict is another airfield that China has to put into their targeting folders and, and then allocate resources toward them, which dilutes their ability to shut us completely down,” he said. The Biden administration has been working to expand the US military footprint in the Asia Pacific. This year, the US signed a deal with the Philippines to gain access to four new bases in the country and inked an agreement with Papua New Guinea to gain access to airports and sea ports in the Pacific island nation. The US is also expanding its presence in Australia under the AUKUS pact.

Wall Street bosses want anonymity to talk China with Congress --U.S. lawmakers scrutinizing China said Wall Street executives asked to have their identities withheld when meeting with them so as not to alienate their Chinese investors. "We have people tell us explicitly that their Chinese LPs would object if they knew they were meeting with us" said Representative Mike Gallagher, a Wisconsin Republican and chairman of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, referring to Chinese investors in funds managed by U.S. firms. "When they meet with members of Congress, it's like we're in some witness protection program and we have to shuttle them around," Gallagher said of the American executives, adding that such requests highlight "the dilemma we face and how difficult it is to mobilize action in light of those concerns." Gallagher spoke Tuesday at a hearing in New York called by lawmakers to draw attention to threats they say China poses to the financial system. It's the latest in an effort by the House panel to scrutinize U.S. business ties with China, including the flow of money from U.S. investors into companies that could aid the country's military or that allegedly engage in forced labor or human rights abuses. It included testimony from Jay Clayton, former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and Anne Stevenson-Yang, founder of J Capital Research. Jim Chanos, founder of investment manager Kynikos Associates, had been scheduled to appear but canceled due to travel problems. Gallagher said that for the most part, fund managers "are not eager" to testify before the committee. Raja Krishnamoorthi, the panel's top Democrat, said that as members of the committee have traveled the country, they have concluded that the Chinese Communist Party "has taken aggressive steps to advance its interests at the expense of American ones." "Doing nothing in response to the risks posed by the CCP's economic aggression is not an option," he said. But lawmakers and speakers at the hearing agreed that any policies enacted to address the risks will need to be clear and to take the concerns of investors on board. "Private sector actors are looking for, and will respond to, China‐related policies that are pragmatic, coherent and consistent over time," Clayton said in prepared remarks. "In turn, those private sector responses will drive the advancement of policy objectives." Concern over an economic slowdown in China has spurred a move toward U.S. stocks and away from emerging markets, including China, according to a recent Bank of America survey of global fund managers. Investors cited concerns over China's real estate market and voiced skepticism about the government's ability to boost the economy through stimulus. Members of the House panel have held a series of sessions across the country to question business leaders, including executives of Apple, Walt Disney, Ford and General Motors. This week's trip to New York, organized by Gallagher and Krishnamoorthi of Illinois, was intended to gather information from Wall Street leaders about potential threats to the economy and financial system from China as well as from U.S. capital flowing to the country.

USA Confirms April Seizure of Tanker Carrying Iran Oil - The USA Department of Justice (DOJ) has confirmed the confiscation in April of a tanker carrying what it said was "contraband crude oil" from Iran. Empire Navigation Inc.'s Suez Rajan Ltd. was transporting a 980,000-barrel, "multimillion-dollar shipment" of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a security force designated by Washington as a terrorist organization, the DOJ said in a press release Friday. The operator is based in Athens, Greece. "This is the first-ever criminal resolution involving a company that violated sanctions by facilitating the illicit sale and transport of Iranian oil", read the media statement. The Associated Press earlier reported the shipping company had pleaded guilty to smuggling Iranian petroleum and agreed to pay $2.4 million. Empire Navigation faces three years of probation under the plea deal, it said Thursday citing court documents it had seen. The District Court of Columbia's website shows the case, which had a filing date of August 30, has been unsealed but has yet to be displayed publicly. "The newly unsealed court documents rely on satellite images, as well as documents, to show that the Suez Rajan sought to mask its loading of Iranian crude oil from one tanker by trying to instead claim the oil came from another", The Associated Press wrote. The DOJ account of the case said, "In addition, pursuant to a deferred prosecution agreement and a seizure warrant issued by the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, Empire Navigation, the operating company of the vessel carrying the contraband cargo, agreed to cooperate and transport the Iranian oil to the United States – an operation which has now concluded. "Empire Navigation incurred the significant expenses associated with the vessel’s voyage to the United States". The DOJ added the oil consignment is now the subject of a civil forfeiture suit in the same court. "The United States’ forfeiture complaint alleges that the oil aboard the vessel is subject to forfeiture based on U.S. terrorism and money laundering statutes", it said. Besides Empire Navigation, "multiple entities affiliated with Iran’s IRGC and the IRGC-Qods Force (IRGC-QF)" participated in the scheme to covertly sell the oil to a customer overseas, the DOJ said citing the forfeiture complaint, not naming the destination country. "Participants in the scheme attempted to disguise the origin of the oil using ship-to-ship transfers, false automatic identification system reporting, falsified documents and other means", the DOJ said. "The complaint further alleges that the charterer of the vessel used the U.S. financial system to facilitate the transportation of Iranian oil."The complaint further alleges that the oil constitutes the property of, or provided a 'source of influence' over, the IRGC and the IRGC-QF, both of which have been designated by the United States as foreign terrorist organizations, and that the oil facilitated money laundering. The documents allege that profits from oil sales support the IRGC’s full range of malign activities, including the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery, support for terrorism and both domestic and international human rights abuses".

U.S. clears way for release of $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds as part of prisoner swap deal - — The Biden administration has cleared the way for the eventual release of five American citizens detained in Iran by issuing a waiver for international banks to transfer $6 billion in frozen Iranian money from South Korea to Qatar without fear of U.S. sanctions. In addition, as part of the deal, the administration has agreed to release five Iranian citizens held in the United States.Secretary of State Antony Blinken signed off on the sanctions waivers last week, a U.S. official told CBS News, a month after U.S. and Iranian officials said an agreement in principle was in place.Congress was not informed of the waiver decision until Monday, according to a congressional notification obtained by The Associated Press. The U.S. official confirmed that the administration had informed Congress of the move, saying the waiver is one of the final steps before the deal can be completed.The outlines of the swap had been previously announced and the waiver was expected. But the notification marks the first time the administration said it was releasing five Iranian prisoners as part of the deal. The prisoners have not been named."On September 8, Secretary Blinken undertook a procedural step in an ongoing process to ensure Iranian funds can move from one restricted account to another and remain restricted to humanitarian trade," National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement. "As we have said from the outset, what is being pursued here is an arrangement wherein we secure the release of 5 wrongfully held Americans. This remains a sensitive and ongoing process. While this is a step in the process, no individuals have been or will be released into U.S. custody this week. We have kept Congress extensively informed from the outset of this process - long before today - and we will continue to do so, including with additional already scheduled briefings this week."The waiver is likely to draw criticism of President Biden from Republicans and others that the deal will boost the Iranian economy at a time when Iran poses a growing threat to U.S. troops and Mideast allies.The waiver means that European, Middle Eastern and Asian banks will not run afoul of U.S. sanctions in converting the money frozen in South Korea and transferring it to Qatar's central bank, where it will be held for Iran to use for the purchase of humanitarian goods.The transfer of the $6 billion was the critical element in the prisoner release deal, which saw four of the five American detainees transferred from Iranian jails into house arrest last month. The fifth detainee had already been under house arrest.Due to numerous U.S. sanctions on foreign banks that engage in transactions aimed at benefitting Iran, several European countries had balked at participating in the transfer. Blinken's waiver is aimed at easing their concerns about any risk of U.S. sanctions.The American prisoners include Siamak Namazi, who was detained in 2015 and was later sentenced to 10 years in prison on internationally criticized spying charges; Emad Sharghi, a venture capitalist sentenced to 10 years; and Morad Tahbaz, a British-American conservationist of Iranian descent who was arrested in 2018 and also received a 10-year sentence. The fourth and fifth prisoners were not identified.

US Takes Step to Clinch Prisoner Swap Deal With Iran - The US has taken another step toward completing a prisoner swap deal with Iran that will involve Tehran gaining access to $6 billion of its own frozen funds, The Associated Press reported Monday.Last week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken signed a sanctions waiver allowing the transfer of $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds from South Korea to Qatar. In a notification to Congress sent on Monday, Blinken said the funds would be placed in “restricted accounts” and that Tehran would have access “only for humanitarian trade.” Blinken also said the US plans to release five unnamed Iranians who have been detained in the US over allegations of sanctions violations. In return, Iran will release five Americans who were recently put on house arrest in a hotel to prepare for the swap.Sources told AP they expect the prisoner swap to happen as early as next week. The news that the US and Iran had agreed on a prisoner exchange was first reported by The New York Times at the beginning of August.Iran hawks in Congress are furious with the Biden administration over the deal and are portraying the transfer of $6 billion as a “ransom”even though it is Iran’s own money.The prisoner swap signals there may be more room for diplomacy between the US and Iran. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) claimed on Monday that the Biden administration “established a secret nuclear deal” with Iran that’s being kept from Congress.

Iran, US Prisoner Swap and Funds Release Imminent in Qatari-Mediated Deal - As the result of a deal made possible by at least eight rounds of shuttle diplomacy mediated by Doha, the US and Iran may soon be conducting a prisoner swap. This agreement will additionally see $6 billion in previously frozen funds belonging to Iran transferred to banks in Qatar, where that money will be spent on food and medicine, according to eight Iranian and other sources speaking with Reuters.On August 10, Tehran released four American citizens from prison into house arrest, where they joined a fifth. At least three of them had been accused of spying and cooperating with Washington. The three known prisoners tentatively being released are businessmen Siamak Namazi, 51, and Emad Sharqi, 59, along with environmentalist Morad Tahbaz, 67, according to the White House.An equivalent number of unidentified Iranian prisoners held by the US for alleged sanctions violations will be released concurrently.A source briefed on the discussions told the outlet that Qatari-led mediation gained traction in June, at least eight rounds of talks had been held since March 2022. The earlier rounds of talks focused on the nuclear issue before focusing on the prisoner swap. “They all [realized] that nuclear (negotiation) is a dead end and shifted focus to prisoners. Prisoners is more simple. It’s easy to get and you can build trust,” the source said, adding that is “when things got serious again.”Per the agreement, Qatar shall implement a financial arrangement in which Doha will cover banking fees as well as monitor how Tehran spends the funds to ensure there is no violation of myriad US sanctions. During the swap, according to three of the sources, both groups of prisoners will transit Qatar.A senior Western diplomat remarked, “Iran initially wanted direct access to the funds but in the end agreed to having access via Qatar… Iran will purchase food and medicine and Qatar will pay directly.” Washington agreed to have the frozen funds – proceeds from past oil sales – held in South Korea transferred to restricted accounts held by banks in Qatar, however, no money is going back to Iran directly, as a US State Department spokesperson stressed. The US will have “oversight as to how and when these funds are used.”The White House has not yet commented on the timing of the transfer, but South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin confirmed last week that the process is underway. The deal to unfreeze Iran’s money has been characterized by GOP hawks as a ransom being paid by the White House for the release of US prisoners. The negotiations which led to this arrangement were led, on the US side, by former Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley.Malley was targeted and sidelined, reportedly by hardliners in both Washington and Tehran, as he was attempting to negotiate a separateinterim nuclear deal which would have seen billions more in Iranian funds unfrozen in exchange for Iran limiting its uranium enrichment and its continued cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog. In June, Malley was placed on unpaid leave and his security clearance is under review.

Cotton: Biden’s decision to release $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds ‘shameful’ -- Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) on Monday led Senate Republican critics in panning the Biden administration’s decision to release $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for the release of five American detainees, calling the move “shameful.” Cotton and other GOP senators reacted to news that the Biden administration issued a blanket waiver for international banks to transfer $6 billion in frozen Iranian money to facilitate the release of five Americans held by Iran. “First Joe Biden used 9/11 as an excuse to flee Afghanistan. Now he desecrates this day by paying ransom to the world’s worst state sponsor of terrorism. Shameful,” Cotton said in a statement. Other Republican lawmakers warned that rewarding Iran would only set the stage for future detentions of Americans traveling abroad. “If we’re paying a billion dollars per kidnapped individual, then you’re going to see more kidnappings. That’s why you don’t negotiate with terrorists, that’s why you don’t negotiate with kidnappers. The idea of basically paying to release, in this effect, a hostage is a terrible idea,” said Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah). “Remember back in the Reagan years, we had — was it — guns for hostages, that was the story, remember that? This is a billion dollars for a hostage,” Romney said. The administration announced Monday that it would also release five Iranian prisoners. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) slammed the prisoner exchange on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter. “It’s ridiculous for US to be blackmailed into paying $6B for hostages which will help indirectly finance the number 1 foreign policy of Iran: terrorism Last time it was $1.7B traded for hostages next time it will probably be $10B the price keeps going up & up,” he wrote. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said “all that does is encourage more kidnapping.”

US, Iran diverge over terms of $6 billion in prisoner release deal - The United States and Iran appeared to diverge on a key term of the negotiated $6 billion prisoner-swap deal finalized this week. The deal between the two countries would secure the release of five American citizens detained in Iran in exchange for the U.S. unfreezing $6 billion in Iranian funds held in South Korean banks, which were effectively stuck due to U.S. sanctions. The deal would allow the funds to be transferred to Qatar. The U.S. would also release five detained Iranian citizens. While U.S. officials have insisted that the funds must be used for humanitarian purposes only, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said in an exclusive interview with NBC News’s Lester Holt that Iran would have the “authority” to decide how the unfrozen funds would be spent. “This money belongs to the Iranian people, the Iranian government, so the Islamic Republic of Iran will decide what to do with this money,” Raisi said in the interview, according to an Iranian government translator. When Holt asked whether the money would go toward non-humanitarian needs, Raisi did not answer directly, instead saying it will support the needs of the Iranian people. “Humanitarian means whatever the Iranian people needs, so this money will be budgeted for those needs, and the needs of the Iranian people will be decided and determined by the Iranian government,” Raisi said. State Department spokesperson Matt Miller responded to these remarks at a press briefing Tuesday, saying he understands why Raisi “may need to make those remarks,” but “it is not the policy of this administration, and it is not the arrangement that will be in place here.” Miller warned the U.S. could freeze the funds again if terms of the deal are not honored. “The facts of this arrangement are: When this money arrives in these accounts in Qatar, it will be held there under strict oversight by the United States Treasury Department, and the money can only be used for humanitarian purposes,” Miller said.

Iran can't use unfrozen funds in prisoner exchange however it wants, U.S. says - The Biden administration is pushing back after Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said his government would choose how it will use the $6 billion in frozen funds set to be released by Washington in a prisoner exchange deal.The deal, which would see South Korea releasing frozen Iranian funds to Qatar, marks a diplomatic breakthrough for the U.S. and Iran, as they have sparred over issues from the Iran nuclear deal to Tehran’s continued ties with Moscow. That money can be used only for humanitarian goods like food and medicine, the Biden administration has said.However, Raisi told “NBC Nightly News” that the money “belongs to the Iranian people, the Iranian government, so the Islamic Republic of Iran will decide what to do with this money.”State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller denied Raisi’s assertion, telling reporters on Tuesday afternoon that the funds would arrive in banks in Qatar and would be “under strict oversight” by the Treasury Department.“The money can only be used for humanitarian purposes,” Miller told reporters. “We will remain vigilant in watching the spending of those funds and have the ability to freeze them again if we need to.”Raisi might’ve been “playing to his domestic audience,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on MSNBC on Tuesday, adding that “the parameters of this arrangement are very clear.”On top of unfreezing the money, the plan involves Iran releasing five Americans in exchange for the U.S. freeing a handful of imprisoned Iranians, a person briefed on the deal by the State Department, who was granted anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity, told POLITICO in August.📣 Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications and more. In iOS or Android.The deal is still coming under fire from Republican lawmakers, who say Washington shouldn’t be doing business with Tehran at all.“There’s NO downside for dictatorships, like Iran or Russia, to take Americans hostage,” Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) tweeted on Tuesday morning. “With Biden, these regimes always get a good deal in the end and that’s why they’ll keep doing it.”Rep. Ben Cline (R-Va.) called the deal “naive and dangerous.”But Miller insisted that without such negotiations, the Americans would never be freed.“Iran is not going to release these American citizens out of the goodness of their heart,” he said. “That is not real life, not how this works, that was never going to happen. We have to make tough choices and engage in tough negotiations to bring these American citizens home.”

USA Allows Release of $6 Billion in Oil Proceeds to Iran -The US cleared the way for $6 billion in oil proceeds to be returned to Iran and agreed to release five Iranians as part of a secretly negotiated deal that will clear the way for five American citizens detained in Iran to return home. Secretary of State Antony Blinken notified Congress on Monday of a waiver that will let German, Irish, Qatari, South Korean and Swiss banks transfer the $6 billion from South Korea without fear of running afoul of US sanctions. He said the $6 billion would be held in restricted accounts in Qatar, where it will be “available only for humanitarian trade,” according to a copy of the notification. An Iranian government spokesman said earlier Monday that he expected the transfer of frozen funds to be completed in the “next few days.” The letter to Congress didn’t say when the prisoner exchange would take place. Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the White House National Security Council, said in a statement that “what is being pursued here is an arrangement wherein we secure the release of five wrongfully held Americans. This remains a sensitive and ongoing process. While this is a step in the process, no individuals have been or will be released into US custody this week.” American officials had announced the broad outlines of the deal in early August after Iran moved four US citizens from prison to house arrest. The American prisoners include Siamak Namazi, who has been held in Tehran’s Evin prison since October 2015. At the time, US officials declined to describe details of the deal, saying that revealing more risked upsetting a delicate process that could still fall apart. They were also wary of acknowledging talks with a regime that has escalated human rights abuses and continues to supply weapons and other materiel to Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Blinken signed the waiver on Friday. A State Department spokesperson, who asked not to be identified, said the Biden administration isn’t lifting any sanctions on Iran or providing any sanctions relief as part of the deal. People familiar with the matter have said that the US and Iran have been engaged for months in tentative and secretive diplomacy that’s seen the two sides inch toward an informal understanding under which Tehran would free the Americans and potentially slow or limit its enrichment of uranium. US officials have privately acknowledged they’ve already begun to relax enforcement of sanctions on oil sales, allowing Tehran to boost production. Iran, which has some of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves, has been shipping the most crude to China in a decade in recent months. The talks are part of a broader effort by the Biden administration to restore at least some of the restrictions Iran agreed to under a 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Then-President Donald Trump quit the JCPOA in 2018. Republicans and some Democrats in Congress have been critical of the Biden administration’s bid for new diplomacy with Iran, saying it will only encourage the regime to jail more Americans and press ahead with its nuclear development. Iran denies that it has any plan to acquire a nuclear weapon.

House GOP military veterans blast Tuberville hold on promotions --House Republicans who are veterans and focused on military issues in Congress are publicly voicing their frustration with Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) holds on military promotions. Rep. Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.), who was a nuclear submarine officer for the Navy, revealed in a press conference on Friday that he forced a meeting with Tuberville to talk about a friend with whom he served in the Navy and who is set to take over command of the submarine force. “I went and sat in Sen. Tuberville’s office for about 45 minutes until he had an opening and would see me, and we had a very frank conversation about it,” Williams said. “At the time, I was led to believe that it wouldn’t last much longer. And here we are 2 1/2 months later. And we certainly don’t seem to be any closer,” Williams said. “So I’d like to see us get the leadership in place that we need, you know, to face the threats that we face.” Tuberville has held up more than 300 military promotions for much of the year in protest of the Pentagon’s policy to reimburse travel expenses for service members who travel across state lines to get abortions. Despite some of his Senate GOP colleagues urging him to let up, Tuberville has refused to budge and indicated this week he will not negotiate a compromise with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. “No, we’ve going down for seven months,” Tuberville said earlier this week when asked if he’s open to a compromise on abortion policy. “They’re not into it either. There’s no give-and-take here, either side.”

103 House Democrats join calls for Biden to open up the immigration playbook --Nearly half the House Democratic Caucus is calling on President Biden to put executive muscle into measures to help immigrants and asylum-seekers get work papers. In a letter signed by 103 lawmakers, the Democrats laid out three legal avenues to allow asylum-seekers and certain undocumented immigrants to work legally, and for some undocumented immigrants to apply for permanent residency. The House members joined calls by some Democratic senators and an array of labor, religious and civil rights organizations that have been pressing for the administration to adopt a more proactive approach on work authorization. The lawmakers also underscored their support for expansion of Temporary Protected Status (TPS), but kept their specific policy suggestions to a set of targeted regulations. “We write to urge the administration to use all the tools available to provide stability to undocumented individuals and recently arrived asylum seekers, seeking to work lawfully, support their families, and contribute to the economy,” they wrote in the letter, first reported by Politico. “While this letter does not focus on Temporary Protected Status (TPS), many of these individuals come from countries that warrant a designation or redesignation of TPS, and we support those on-going efforts.” The first focus is on work permits for asylum-seekers. Many asylum-seekers’ legal inability to work has contributed to escalating tensions between the Biden administration and Democratic mayors, particularly New York’s Eric Adams (D). “Allowing earlier access to work permits would decrease the pressure on states, cities, localities, and other community groups and provide asylum seekers with the opportunity to live more independent lives, find legal representation, and increase economic growth,” wrote the lawmakers. Administration officials have also expressed frustration that a number of asylum-seekers are in fact eligible to work, but have not received the proper legal guidance to apply for work permits. But the lawmakers pointed out that many prospective asylum-seekers haven’t even been able to register their asylum applications due to backlogs, preventing them from taking the next step to apply for work papers. “As a result, through no fault of their own, they remain ineligible to work, making them unable to provide for their families and contribute to the economy. Many asylum seekers want to work and give back to their new communities,” they wrote.

What I saw at the Texas border shocked me - On Sept. 6, a federal judge in Austin ordered Texas to remove a floating “buoy barrier” wall in the Rio Grande outside Eagle Pass, which has become a symbol of Governor Greg Abbott’s (R) Operation Lone Star border program. Although the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals has stayed the injunction, allowing the buoys to remain while appeals take place, the fight over this section of floating barriers illuminates the broader pattern of abuses committed by Texas along its southern border. As an immigrant rights and criminal justice reform advocate for 20 years, I have become somewhat steeled to systematic injustices. But what I witnessed on a recent trip to Eagle Pass to document Operation Lone Star shook me like nothing in recent memory. On a blisteringly hot Wednesday morning, I saw asylum-seeking families — including at least four babies — stuck on the Texas side of the river under rows of concertina razor wire. One woman was vomiting due to dehydration, while a male companion offered her water from the muddy Rio Grande. Heavily armed Texas and Nebraska National Guard members looked on, but refused repeated requests to give them water for more than an hour. Instead, these families were told to walk three miles downriver. But the place they were directed to is private property, where migrants are often arrested for criminal trespassing, which can result in up to a year in prison. It is these prosecutions that have recently led to the separation of migrant fathers from their families. A recent lawsuit alleges that many have spent weeks or months in jail without even basic due process.At one point, I witnessed a panicked toddler screaming mid-river. For a moment I thought I was going to see a child drown, while National Guard members carrying weapons of war looked on from behind the razor wire. A boat operated by Texas Highway Patrol idled up-river, in no position to help in the case of tragedy. Earlier, the boat had made waves in an apparent attempt to deter the migrants from crossing. The child’s family was fortunately able to turn back to an island before she drowned. But others have not been so fortunate. More than 100 people, including children, have drowned in the Rio Grande in Maverick County, of which Eagle Pass is the county seat, in just the last 18 months. And research shows that aggressive enforcement mechanisms like Operation Lone Star correlate with higher numbers of migrant deaths.Operation Lone Star — which has now cost Texas taxpayers $10 billion in spent or allocated funds — does not work to reduce illicit migration or drug smuggling, as the governor has claimed. In fact, smugglers who help people cross report that they are actually benefiting from the program. They have been able to raise prices to navigate migrants around the saw-bladed buoys and razor wire that Abbott and the Texas Department of Public Safety have installed.But it has caused chaos and harm for asylum-seekers as well for border communities that have experienced increases in deadly high speed vehicle pursuits, racially disparate traffic stops, and a “war-like” military and law-enforcement presence in their communities.

Democratic lawmakers rev rhetoric amid UAW strike threat - Left-leaning lawmakers, lacking a formal role in ongoing negotiations between the United Auto Workers and Detroit automakers, are instead using their bullhorns to call out the companies and plug the union’s demands.“Despite what you might hear in the corporate media in the coming days, what the UAW is fighting for is not radical,” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who also wrote an opinion piece in The Guardian supporting auto workers, said in a statement Tuesday. “It is the totally reasonable demand that autoworkers, who have made enormous financial sacrifices over the past 40 years, finally receive a fair share of the record-breaking profits their labor has generated.”Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) also weighed in, as negotiations reach a critical phase with a deadline for an agreement approaching. UAW President Shawn Fain has threatened a strike at possibly all of the Big 3 automakers if a deadline of 11:59 p.m. Thursday passes with no deal.“Time and again, Democrats have delivered for America’s auto industry ... Now the Big Three have the means and opportunity to invest in their workers,” Pelosi said in a written statement, referring to Ford, General Motors and Chrysler parent Stellantis.Lawmakers, especially Democrats, often call for negotiating parties to bargain in good faith and come together to make a fair deal. However, several in recent days have gone beyond that to openly criticize the auto companies they say have made outsize profits compared to workers’ compensation, echoing the UAW’s argument. Auto companies are “being completely unserious,” Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) said in a statement Monday.“If the Big 3 can find money in the couch cushions to bump executive pay by 40% over the past few years,” Fetterman said, “they sure as hell can find the money to give hard-earned raises to the people who actually build the cars and trucks Pennsylvanians drive.”Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) on Tuesday said “the Big Three have had their way way too often. ... The autoworkers made major concessions a decade and a half ago and they haven’t been rewarded for those concessions.“Representatives from UAW, Stellantis and GM declined to comment on the lawmakers’ statements. A representative from Ford didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.The White House and other administration officials have been more measured in their comments. President Joe Biden early last week publicly predicted there would not be a strike, though the White House has spent much of the summer engaging both sides, appointing longtime Democratic adviser Gene Sperling as a liaison. “Gene Sperling is engaged and they’re doing their best. They’re pretty far apart,” Brown said Tuesday, adding that he talked to the White House on Monday.But Brown has acknowledged there’s little formal role for Congress.“There’s nothing really for us to do except to play out the negotiations,” he said last week.A strike would be politically thorny for Democrats. Biden has championed a climate-friendly transition to electric vehicles that’s disrupted the auto industry, while at the same time worked to prove his claim to be the most pro-union president the country’s ever seen. While the UAW has said it’s not broadly opposed to electric vehicles, they’ve withheld an endorsement of Biden, citing concerns over the transition, including federal subsidies going to nonunion plants.

Why a Democratic-leaning union is challenging Biden’s electric vehicle revolution - President Joe Biden’s pledge to make electric vehicles the center of his clean energy economy is hitting a roadblock: one of his party’s most powerful allies in the labor movement.The United Auto Workers’ criticisms of Biden’s handling of his electric car and truck subsidies have become a frequent theme for the 150,000-member union as it prepares for a possible strike against the major U.S. automakersthis week. That means a key part of the president’s trillion-dollar-plus climate and infrastructure agenda, a centerpiece of his argument for reelection, faces friction with a major source of Democratic political muscle in states like Michigan.Labor supporters say the roots of the conflict date back decades, to Democratic presidents who pursued pro-business or free-trade policies that the union blames for hollowing out protections for American workers. Now Biden is facing the blowback from that era, even as he pursues energy policies that he pledges will reverse that tide and rebuild U.S. manufacturing jobs.“UAW members feel abandoned by the Democratic Party,” former UAW President Bob King said in an interview, citing President Bill Clinton’s signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the failure of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act to ensure that clean energy funds flow to union workers. “I think there’s a segment of the Democratic Party that sees itself as serving corporations rather than the common good. … We’ve had a lot of disappointments.”Biden has touted the climate incentives in last year’s Inflation Reduction Actand his 2021 infrastructure law as critical to driving a U.S. manufacturing revival. Those laws have already drawn more than $200 billion in new investments from the private sector for plants to make clean energy products such as electric vehicle batteries and solar panels, aimed at reducing U.S. dependence on fossil fuels.But those clean energy investments are mostly flowing to Republican-led states and congressional districts, including in states with low levels of union membership and laws that make labor organizing difficult. The UAW could also see a long-term erosion of members from the switch to electric vehicles, which generally have fewer parts than gasoline-powered models — especially if workers making the EVs’ crucial batteries aren’t covered by the same protections as traditional autoworkers.UAW President Shawn Fain has demanded that the Biden administration ensure that union members share in the transition to electric cars and trucks. In an interview with CNN on Monday, Fain reiterated that the union is waiting for the administration’s response before it endorses Biden’s reelection — something Fain has so far refused to do.“Actions are going to dictate endorsements, so we’ll see how things continue to play out, and we have a lot of issues to resolve,” he said. “There’s a lot with the EV transition that has to happen, and there’s hundreds of billions of our taxpayer dollars that are helping fund this, and workers cannot continue to be left behind in that equation.”

Trump pledges to stop EVs, issues ultra-nationalist appeal to autoworkers - In the run-up to the contract deadlines for 170,000 autoworkers in the US and Canada, former President Trump is appealing directly to autoworkers in speeches and social media posts, grotesquely posturing as their champion. In an X (formerly Twitter) video last week, Trump denounced the push by the Biden administration for the development of electric vehicles, calling it an “idiotic policy” and claiming that he, Trump, would “save jobs in Michigan and the other auto states.” Trump ranted, “Shawn Fain, the respected President of the United Auto Workers, cannot even think about allowing ALL ELECTRIC CARS—THEY WILL ALL BE MADE IN CHINA, and the Auto Industry in America will cease to exist!” Trump is calling on autoworkers to support his return to the White House, tweeting, “United Auto Workers, VOTE FOR TRUMP. Get your leaders to ENDORSE ME, I WILL KEEP ALL OF THESE GREAT JOBS.” He has also called on UAW members to stop paying union dues. In a speech in Oakland County, an urban county to the north of Detroit with several major auto plants, Trump said: “Driven by [Biden’s] ridiculous regulations, electric cars will kill more than half of US auto jobs and decimate the suppliers that they decimated already.” The ability of Trump, a billionaire fascist and real estate con man, to pose as a friend of autoworkers is entirely attributable to the treachery of the United Auto Workers bureaucracy, which, far from opposing the coming jobs massacre, is colluding with Biden and the Democratic Party to facilitate it. As the WSWS has warned, looming over the contract talks is a threat to the jobs of hundreds of thousands of autoworkers. Behind their backs, the auto companies, with the support of the government, have developed detailed plans to eliminate jobs, close plants and impose poverty-level wages as part of the transition to electric vehicles. President Biden and the American ruling class have not suddenly become environmentalists. Rather they see the development of electric vehicle technologies as critical to the escalation of the economic and military confrontation against China, which currently dominates EV production and the processing of the raw materials needed for them. Trump opposes the transition to EVs not because of its negative impact on workers. Trump’s opposition is largely driven by his ties to the fossil fuel industry, in particular, petroleum interests that stand to suffer in the transition to EVs. Therefore, he and the other corporate stooges in the Republican Party deny the significance of climate change, which has had a devastating impact on the working class and threatens the world with extreme weather and disaster events for which working class communities are left unprepared. Exploiting the economic concerns over a further decimation of jobs, Trump is making an appeal to an array of backward prejudices: extreme anti-Chinese, anti-Mexican nationalism, climate change denial, opposition to technology and thinly veiled anti-Semitic rants against “globalists.” Above all, his guiding principle is that there must be no restrictions whatsoever on the “right” of corporations to make profit. For his part, UAW President Shawn Fain and Biden have sought to hide the truth about the massive scope of threatened job cuts, with empty talk about “a just transition” to electric vehicles.

House passes bill targeting California’s EV mandate - The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday passed a bill targeting California’s efforts to phase out gas-powered cars. The legislation, which passed the House 222-190, would bar states from limiting the sales of gas-powered cars and rescind any federal approvals for states to do so that were issued since the start of 2022. While the vote was largely along party lines, eight Democrats voted with Republicans in favor of the bill. They are Reps. Yadira Caraveo (N.M.), Jim Costa (Calif.), Henry Cuellar (Texas), Donald Davis (N.C.), Jared Golden (Maine), Brian Higgins (N.Y.), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.) and Gabe Vasquez (N.M.) The bill does not explicitly mention California. However, under the Clean Air Act, the state can pursue clean car rules that are stricter than those from the federal government if they get permission from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Last year, the EPA reinstated a waiver allowing a California rule aimed at limiting vehicular pollution to take effect. Since then, the state has also eyed a complete phaseout of new sales of gas-powered cars to increase electric vehicle usage. Other states often adopt California’s rules, giving them additional power beyond the state’s borders. Despite its House passage, the Republican-led legislation is not expected to advance or become law. It would face opposition in the Democratic-led Senate, and the White House recently released a statement outlining its opposition. “The Administration strongly opposes passage of H.R. 1435,” read the statement, which stopped short of an explicit veto threat. It said the bill would “restrict the ability of California and its citizens to address its severe air pollution challenges.” Nevertheless, the bill represents another point where Republicans can criticize the Biden administration as energy policies — particularly as they pertain to household items — is an area they have honed in on. “Restrictive government mandates isn’t how we’re going to lead the next hundred years, yet, that’s what EPA and California are trying to do,” House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) said. The bill’s passage comes at a time when auto workers are set to strike. The shift to electric vehicles has been one area of discontent, as the union has accused automakers of using the transition to electric vehicles to undercut wages. Former President Trump has seized on these concerns, railing against electric vehicles as he looks to win over voters in the swing state of Michigan, where auto manufacturing is a major industry.

Commentary: A just transition to clean transportation mustn't leave autoworkers behind | Energy News Network - Illinois is at the forefront of an emerging electric vehicle (EV) industry, yet the workers building this new economic engine are under constant threat of being left behind. Our community has been hit hard by the decline of the steel industry. Our neighbors who worked and still live here were left with a toxic legacy after the industry practically disappeared. After the steel mills that once employed thousands of people closed down, the pollution that was left behind has led to higher rates of asthma, cancer, and other respiratory diseases. We now have an opportunity to do it the right way by making a just transition into a clean economy. We can take care of our environment and create good quality union jobs in EV manufacturing right here on the Southeast Side of Chicago where we live and work. There are a number of things that can be done to ensure a just transition to a clean economy for autoworkers. Above all, we need to make sure the state and federal government invest in training programs for workers who are transitioning to new jobs in the clean energy sector. These programs should be designed to ensure workers have the skills they need to succeed in these new jobs. We also need our elected officials to support transitioning our existing automotive manufacturing facilities into building electric vehicles and their parts. Federal funds are available to do this, and Illinois is already a major hub for automotive production. With the right funding and support, Illinois can be a major hub for EV production too. However, some companies are trying to use the transition to EVs to undermine the power of unions and drive down wages and benefits. For too long, corporations have pitted workers against environmental activists, claiming that we can’t have both good jobs and a clean environment. It’s time to put an end to this narrative. We can create good-paying union jobs in the clean energy sector, while also protecting our health and safety. We must push corporations to clean up their pollution and invest in clean energy jobs and make sure that these jobs are good-paying union jobs that provide benefits and security for workers and their families. We must also make sure that the transition is fair. Creating policies that encourage new EV manufacturing plants to unionize will give workers a seat at the table to bargain for fair wages and benefits. We need to make sure that the government creates a level playing field for unions so that they are not discriminated against by employers. The fight for a just transition at the “Big Three” (Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis) is a fight for our entire community because the benefits reach much more than an individual worker at an individual plant. It’s also a fight for our health, our safety, and our future. We must unite and stand together to win this fight. We should also boost investment in electric public transit, EV charging stations, and all green infrastructure that makes EVs more practical and convenient. This will drive demand and support new jobs. Additionally, offering tax credits and incentives for the companies and consumers will encourage more EV manufacturing here in the U.S. The shift to EVs presents an opportunity to lift up workers and build a fairer economy by giving us a voice through union representation while also growing the clean energy sector. The Southeast Side of Chicago is a microcosm of the challenges and opportunities facing this country as we transition to a clean economy. As a union worker and environmental activist, we know that we must unite to fight for a just transition to a clean energy economy because we are fighting for the future of our planet and our communities. It is a fight for good-paying union jobs that can support families and a fight for environmental justice and for a cleaner and healthier future for all.

The UAW launches a historic strike against all Big 3 automakers : NPR - A historic strike at the Detroit Three automakers is now underway. For the first time ever, the United Auto Workers union is striking against all Big Three automakers at once, after it failed to clinch a deal on a new contract by the 11:59 p.m. deadline on Thursday.But the UAW strike won't mean all of the nearly 150,000 union members who work at the three automakers will walk off their jobs en masse.Instead, workers at three Midwest auto plants — a General Motors assembly plant in Wentzville, Missouri, a Stellantis assembly plant in Toledo, Ohio, and part of a Ford plant in Wayne, Mich. — were the first to walk off the job under UAW president Shawn Fain's "stand up strike" strategy.For now, that means the strike involves just under 13,000 workers — less than 9% of UAW membership at the three companies.But additional locations could follow at a moment's notice, depending on how bargaining with the companies progresses — a strategy intended to ramp up the pressure on companies by keeping them guessing about how their operations would be disrupted."This is our generation's defining moment," Fain told UAW members at a Facebook Live event on Thursday night. "The money is there, the cause is righteous, the world is watching." The targeted strikes are a departure from the UAW's traditional playbook, which has usually involved having all union members at a single company walk off the job at once.The UAW has also opted to negotiate with all three automakers at once, in another departure from its previous methods.Previously, the UAW had picked one automaker to hash out a deal with, focusing its actions on that company until it got a deal — and then pushed the other two of the Big Three members to more or less match that deal. Still, Fain did not rule eventually having all union workers at the Big Three automakers walk off the job at once.

Green Groups Stand With UAW in Fight to Protect Autoworkers During EV Transition - On the eve of the expiration of the United Auto Workers union's contract and a potential strike Wednesday, climate action groups were among more than 100 civil society organizations on Wednesday calling on the "Big Three" automakers to ensure that a new contract protects workers as the U.S. transitions toward making electric vehicles. Groups including the Center for Biological Diversity, Public Citizen,Sierra Club, and Earthjustice were among those expressing solidarity with nearly 150,000 union autoworkers who are demanding that employees of electric vehicle battery plants being developed by Stellantis, Ford, and General Motors are paid fairly—reflecting the record profits the automakers have reported in recent years."Within the next few years—the span of this next contract—lies humanity's last chance to navigate a transition away from fossil fuels, including away from combustion engines," wrote the groups in an open letter. "With that shift comes an opportunity for workers in the United States to benefit from a revival of new manufacturing, including electric vehicles (EVs) and collective transportation like buses and trains, as a part of the renewable energy revolution.""This transition must center workers and communities, especially those who have powered our economy through the fossil fuel era, and be a vehicle for economic and racial justice," they added. "We are putting you on notice: Corporate greed and shareholder profits must never again be put before safe, good-paying union jobs, clean air and water, and a livable future.""Corporate titans will try to split our movement by presenting us with a false choice. They'll try to argue that building more clean cars is more important than supporting workers. But we know better."With the Biden administration—under the Inflation Reduction Act—poised to invest billions of taxpayer dollars "to boost your companies' transition to electric vehicle manufacturing and component production," the letter reads, the companies must "do right by the workers who have sacrificed to keep your companies profitable."Without meeting the demands of the UAW, the organizations said, the Big Three will be embarking on a "race to the bottom" that continues to exploit workers."We do not have to choose between good jobs and green jobs," Trevor Dolan, industry and workforce policy lead at Evergreen Action, said Wednesday. "Corporate titans will try to split our movement by presenting us with a false choice. They'll try to argue that building more clean cars is more important than supporting workers. But we know better. Our collective movement can only succeed if workers directly benefit from climate action."The groups highlighted the demands of the union, including:

• an end to the industry's unjust tier system for workers, which leaves "tier-two" employees making less than half as much in hourly wages as top-tier employees and with less generous benefits;
• just wage and benefit increases that keep in line with the cost of living;
• the same pay and safety standards for workers in sustainable battery production as under the national agreements; and
• a robust, fair, and just transition into the EV economy with no loss of autoworker livelihood.

The expression of solidarity came ahead of a bargaining update that UAW President Shawn Fain was expected to give prior to the contract deadline.Fain has led the union in demanding a 40% wage increase over four years—noting that compensation for General Motors CEO Mary Barra grew by more than 32% from 2018-22 while the median worker got only a 2.8% raise—cost-of-living increases, and a workweek shortened to 32 hours.

Biden’s Climate Law Is Reshaping Private Investment in the United States - Private investment in clean energy projects like solar panels, hydrogen power and electric vehicles surged after President Biden signed an expansive climate bill into law last year, a development that shows how tax incentives and federal subsidies have helped reshape some consumer and corporate spending in the United States.New data being released on Wednesday suggest the climate law and other parts of Mr. Biden’s economic agenda have helped speed the development of automotive supply chains in the American Southwest, buttressing traditional auto manufacturing centers in the industrial Midwest and the Southeast. The 2022 law, which passed with only Democratic support, aided factory investment in conservative bastions like Tennessee and the swing states of Michigan and Nevada. The law also helped underwrite a spending spree on electric cars and home solar panels in California, Arizona and Florida.The data show that in the year since the climate law passed, spending on clean-energy technologies accounted for 4 percent of the nation’s total investment in structures, equipment and durable consumer goods — more than double the share from four years ago.The law so far has failed to supercharge a key industry in the transition from fossil fuels that Mr. Biden is trying to accelerate: wind power. Domestic investment in wind production declined over the past year, despite the climate law’s hefty incentives for producers. And so far the law has not changed the trajectory of consumer spending on some energy-saving technologies like highly efficient heat pumps.But the report, which drills down to the state level, provides the first detailed look at how Mr. Biden’s industrial policies are affecting clean energy investment decisions in the private sector.The data come from the Clean Investment Monitor, a new initiative from the Rhodium Group, a consulting firm; and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. Its findings go beyond simpler estimates, from the White House and elsewhere, providing the most comprehensive look yet at the effects of Mr. Biden’s economic agenda on America’s emerging clean-energy economy.The researchers spearheading the first cut of the data include Trevor Houser, a former Obama administration official, who is a partner at Rhodium; and Brian Deese, a former director of Mr. Biden’s National Economic Council, who is an innovation fellow at M.I.T. The Inflation Reduction Act, which Mr. Biden signed into law in August 2022, includes a wide range of lucrative incentives to encourage domestic manufacturing and speed the nation’s transition away from fossil fuels. That includes expanded tax breaks for advanced battery production, solar-panel installation, electric vehicle purchases and other initiatives. Many of those tax breaks are effectively unlimited, meaning they could eventually cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars — or even top $1 trillion — if they succeed at driving enough new investment.

This tax tweak is supercharging Biden’s climate agenda - Tucked deep within President Biden’s landmark climate bill sits a seemingly small tweak to IRS rules that, for the first time, lets companies sell their clean energy tax credits. The change accounts for just a fraction of the 100,000 or so words in the Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, which Congress passed in 2022. But experts say that by making clean energy tax credits more accessible, the move will help drive most of the government’s investment in the sector over the next decade and supercharge the industry. “It’s pretty unprecedented,” said Jorge Medina, an attorney who specializes in renewable energy and tax policy at the firm Shearman & Sterling. “There hasn’t been a program quite like this, and not on this scale.” After President Biden signed the IRA into law last summer, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that its tax credits would account for roughly three quarters of the legislation’s $369 billion in climate incentives. When the treasury department released its proposed transferability rules in June, Secretary Janet Yellencalled the mechanism a “force multiplier.” Grist thanks its sponsors. Become one. The IRA provides tax credits for a range of clean energy technologies, from the deployment of solar and wind to the development of clean hydrogen and carbon-capture projects. But these benefits can only be used to offset tax liabilities, which many startups or projects may not have until they begin earning profits. Before the IRA, clean energy developers got around this by creating a legally complex “tax-equity” partnership, said Rachel Chang, a policy analyst at the Center for American Progress. That, however, often sidelined smaller players because with only so much tax liability to go around, investors often focused on more lucrative projects. “The tax-equity market has been to some extent what’s holding renewables back,” said Medina. The IRA made capitalizing on these incentives much easier. Now, a developer who doesn’t have a tax liability can sell their credits to a company that does and get cash to help fund its project. While credits can only be transferred once, Medina and others still anticipate that this streamlined process will make developing clean energy more appealing.

US Treasury to issue more clean energy tax credit guidance by year-end - (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury said on Friday it will provide guidance on additional clean energy tax incentives before the end of 2023, including a provision aimed at deterring companies from relying on Chinese supply chains. Lily Batchelder, the Treasury's assistant secretary for tax policy, declined to provide reporters with specific timing for the guidance on "foreign entity of concern" rules. But she said the guidance would be released before year-end, along with guidance for the "45X" manufacturing production tax for clean energy products such as solar, wind, batteries and critical minerals components. The auto industry is watching the rules for both credits as they make investment decisions on producing batteries for their transition to electric vehicles. The foreign entity of concern rules come into effect in 2024 for completed batteries and 2025 for critical minerals used to produce them. A key decision in the guidance is whether Ford Motor Co's (F.N) deal to license the technology of Chinese battery manufacturer CATL (300750.SZ) for use in Ford-owned U.S. battery plants will meet the Treasury's standards to access the tax credits. The arrangement has raised concerns among U.S. lawmakers. Batchelder said that in the near term, Treasury would release guidance on tax credits for investments in energy efficient home improvements and sustainable aviation fuel. Other guidance expected before the end of 2023 includes Section 48 clean power investment tax credit and clean hydrogen tax credits. According to initial estimates made when the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was passed in August 2022, the cost of its clean energy tax credits was estimated at around $369 billion over 10 years. Since then, strong demand for the credits from investment projects have prompted some analysts to estimate that the IRA's fiscal costs could reach $1 trillion. Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Kim Coghill

Nearly 400 Scientists Tell Biden to 'Embrace Demands of the March to End Fossil Fuels' -- In an open letter published Wednesday, around 400 scientists implored U.S. President Joe Biden to endorse the demands of this weekend's March to End Fossil Fuels in New York—which include halting new fossil fuel projects, ending oil and gas drilling on public lands, and declaring a climate emergency.Noting that "on your first day in office, you issued an executive order pledging that it is 'the policy of my administration to listen to the science' in tackling the climate crisis," the letter's signers lamented that "more than two years later, it's clear that the crisis is spiraling out of control and the policies of your administration with regard to fossil fuels fail to align with what the science tells us must happen to avert calamity.""With the climate crisis raging all around us—in the form of fires, floods,hurricanes, drought, heatwaves, crop failures, and more—we call on you directly, clearly, and unequivocally to stop enacting policies contrary to science and do what is needed to address the crisis," the signatories added.The scientists called on Biden to:

• Stop federal approval for new fossil fuel projects and repeal permits for climate bombs like the Willow project and the Mountain Valley Pipeline;
• Phase out fossil drilling on our public lands and waters;
• Declare a climate emergency to halt fossil fuel exports and investments abroad, and turbocharge the buildout of more just, resilient distributed energy (like rooftop and community solar); and
• Provide a just transition to a renewable energy future that generates millions of jobs while supporting workers' and community rights, job security, and employment equity.

"We scientists heard the president loud and clear when he pledged two years ago to 'listen to the science' on climate. Yet now we're watching our nation's greenhouse gas emissions spiral out of control while White House policy becomes increasingly unaligned with reality," Sandra Steingraber—an initial signatory of the letter and a senior scientist at the Science and Environmental Health Network"—said in a statement."Science says we need to ratchet down fossil fuel extraction—the White House is doubling down," she added. " Scientists are here to say that our data support the demands of this march."

Mary Peltola's delicate balance on energy, climate - Mary Peltola, one of the few pro-oil Democrats in Congress, spent months prodding President Joe Biden to approve the enormous Willow project on the North Slope of Alaska. She was the only Democrat this year to join the pro-fossil fuel Congressional Western Caucus. And when Biden reversed oil and gas leases in her state last week, she said she was “deeply frustrated.”The Alaskan has certainly frustrated some members of her own party and environmentalists — in her 2022 campaign, the national chapter of the League of Conservation Voters declined to endorse her.And yet her voting record from LCV reveals she has mostly joined with Democrats on environmental bills with the exception of a handful of times. Republicans plan to use such votes against her in a seat they are targeting to retake in 2024.Up for a second full term, Peltola finds herself in a tough spot. She represents a state that has long depended on the oil and gas industry for jobs and direct checks to residents. At the same time, the brutal effects of climate change are on full display: The Arctic is melting; permafrost is thawing; coastal villages are moving inland.In her view, people in cities in the “lower 48” have the luxury of not thinking about where their energy comes from — even as they have an insatiable appetite for power.“It was frustrating to hear [the Willow] project referred to as a carbon bomb,” she said in a recent interview, referring to comments made by some green groups.“When, actually, the carbon bomb has been on the demand side,” said Peltola. “The folks who were saying that about this project came from districts where every single day the mere existence of their district is a carbon bomb.” She complained that Americans are oblivious to the amount of carbon they consume powering their iPhone or microwaving their coffee. “I just would love to see Americans have an honest conversation about how to reduce our carbon emissions — all of us — including people who come from big districts.”Along with the state’s two Republican senators, Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan, Peltola spent months pushing senior administration officials and President Joe Biden to greenlight Willow, a contentious operation that at its peak will produce 180,000 barrels of oil a day over 68,000 acres in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.Observers thought her Democratic credentials might have given the Biden administration cover to approve a fossil fuel project that generated enormous backlash among many in the party — not to mention young climate advocates.

Progressive Groups Unveil 'Rural New Deal' to 'Reverse Decades of Economic Decline' -"A Rural New Deal is urgently needed to build and rebuild local economies across rural America, reverse 40 years of wealth and corporate concentration, restore degraded lands, reclaim land and ownership opportunities for those whose land was taken by force or deceit, and ensure that communities and the nation can and do meet the basic needs of its people."That's the opening line of a report released Tuesday by Progressive Democrats of America (PDA) and the Rural Urban Bridge Initiative (RUBI), which recognizes that "for too long, we've neglected, dismissed and underinvested" in rural U.S. communities, and offers "a broad policy blueprint to help steer progressive priorities" in such regions."Addressing the problems and concerns of rural America, isn't just the right thing to do, it is essential for the health of our nation. Progressives have ignored rural for too long," said PDA executive director Alan Minsky in a statement. "The Rural New Deal will change that.""Rebuilding and renewing supportive social and economic connections across rural and urban lines, empowering rural people and communities, moving away from extractive relationships of the past, is the course we must chart together."The report provides principles to guide development and implementation of a Rural New Deal (RND), asserting that all policies must be worker-focused as well as "flexible, adaptable, and locally driven to the greatest degree possible," and should "encourage and invest in innovative, effective solutions."The principles section stresses that "farmers and business people, nonprofit innovators, union and worker advocates, and community and political leaders must be part of the design of specific initiatives for their communities—rather than simply being recipients or implementors of top-down programs."The section also highlights goals that should be woven into the 10 "pillars" of a Rural New Deal: reversing corporate concentration; focusing on real and durable wealth; addressing generations of racially based discrimination; restoring degraded landscapes to their full productive and ecological potential; and investing in the organizational infrastructure and local leaders that sustain rural programs.The RND pillars—which each include up to eight recommendations for primarily federal action—are:

• Rebuild farm, forest, and food economies;
• Reward work and ensure livable wages;
• Dismantle monopolies, empower and support local business;
• Invest in community and regional infrastructure;
• Rebuild small town centers;
• Cultivate self-reliance and resilience;
• Invest in rural healthcare;
• Fully fund rural schools;
• Make rural and small town housing affordable; and
• Re-localize rural and small town banks.

Policy proposals include supporting regenerative farm, forest, and fishery businesses; adopting a federal jobs guarantee with a living wage and essential benefits; making broadband access universal; expanding Medicaid and Medicare access; incentivizing installation of solar technology on buildings and non-prime farmland, over parking lots, and in vacant spaces; and enacting reforms to rein in private equity's "unbridled power," such as eliminating the carried interest tax loophole.

Local officials call on Congress to reject larger trucks on highway -- A coalition of local officials from across the country are calling on Congress to oppose proposed legislation that will allow an increase in the length and weight of large trucks traveling on commercial highways. In a letter sent Monday, the Coalition Against Bigger Trucks (CABT) said the measure would impact the current transportation infrastructure in their small communities, warning that rural roads and older bridges are not “built to the same standards as Interstate.” CABT also said that most municipalities can’t “keep up with our current maintenance schedules and replacement costs because of underfunded budgets.” “The impacts of longer or heavier tractor-trailers would only worsen these problems,” CABT said in a statement, noting that bigger trucks on interstate highways would inevitably mean bigger trucks on local roads as well. “Longer and heavier trucks would cause significantly more damage to our transportation infrastructure, costing us billions of dollars that local government budgets simply cannot afford, compromising the very routes that American motorists use every day.”

2022 Census data preview: Poverty rates expected to increase as high inflation and the loss of safety net programs overshadow labor market improvements -- EPI Blog - Bold fiscal relief and recovery measures passed in response to the pandemic boosted the economy and helped millions of Americans avoid joblessness and poverty in 2020 and 2021. While the economic recovery has continued to strengthen since then, most of the government relief measures that helped workers and families weather the economic shock have now expired. Upcoming Census Bureau data on earnings, income, and poverty for 2022—released on Tuesday—will reflect how these policy choices impacted the economic well-being of workers, families, and children across the country. To help place the upcoming data release in context, we highlight key economic trends that have characterized the recovery since 2021. We also show how the current labor market is already on pace to becoming a better year for workers and families with expanding job opportunities and falling inflation. In summary, we find:

1. The U.S. economy in 2022 continued to experience a strong and broad-based labor market expansion with strong job growth and lower unemployment across demographic groups, particularly those often left behind by economic growth.
2. While both payroll employment and nominal wages grew between 2021 and 2022, the inflationary shocks resulting from pandemic distortions and the Russian invasion of Ukraine eroded much of the gains, leading to a decline in real wage growth during this period. This will be a drag on what would have otherwise been meaningful improvements in living standards.
3. Pandemic relief measures significantly strengthened the U.S. social safety net in 2020 and 2021, demonstrating what a more robust U.S. welfare state could accomplish in reducing poverty and fostering economic security. Unfortunately, none of these pandemic expansions persisted into 2022, and their pullback will lead to a significant tempering of labor market gains as well as higher poverty rates for families and children.
4. Even though pandemic safety net expansions remain expired, the labor market continued to pull workers off the sidelines in 2023 while inflation fell. Livings standards for 2023 have likely increased significantly for the large majority of U.S. households. Next week’s data release will only look back at 2022 and not include these gains.

The labor market experienced a tremendous bounceback from the depths of the pandemic recession. Large-scale policy interventions, such as unemployment insurance reform measures and economic impact payments, helped families stay afloat and drove a recovery several times faster than the drawn-out recovery from the Great Recession. It took just two years to regain the pre-pandemic prime-age employment-to-population ratio—the share of the population 25–54 years old with a job—compared with about 10 years to reach the same point following the Great Recession.

Official and Supplemental Poverty Rates, through 2022 by Menzie Chinn - The Bureau of the Census has just released numbers for Official Poverty Rate, as well as the Supplemental (the latter takes into account taxes and transfers, and is more relevant for thinking about the actual welfare of individuals).

• Graph Source: Census.
• Graph Source: Census.
• NY Times article.
• CEA post.

Child poverty in the US doubled in 2022 with ending of expanded benefits - Child poverty in the United States more than doubled during 2022, according to new data from the Census Bureau. Child poverty increased from 5.1 percent of children in 2021 to 12.4 percent in 2022, or about 9 million children. At the same time, overall poverty increased by 4.6 percent to 12.4 percent, the first increase in the overall Supplemental Poverty Measure since 2010. This sudden jump in child poverty was caused by the expiration of expanded benefits through the Child Tax Credit (CTC), which gave families up to $3,600 per child in monthly installments, as well as the elimination of expanded unemployment insurance and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) payments. All together, these programs, launched in response to the stay-at-home orders that were issued at the onset of the COVID pandemic, helped bring down child poverty from a rate of 12.6 percent in 2019. The doubling of poverty is the direct result of a deal cut between President Joe Biden and congressional Republicans last year on a federal budget which protected massive military spending while slashing the limited social program expansions implemented at the outset of the pandemic. On top of the end of these benefits there has been a mass unwinding of Medicaid programs across the country, with millions of people kicked off of their Medicaid health insurance after the ending of the official COVID-19 Public Health Emergency by Biden earlier this year. In March 2020 a continuous enrollment provision was created for Medicaid that prevented states from disenrolling Medicaid recipients. This provision ended on March 31, 2023, and states will continue to review the eligibility of the 94 million people that were enrolled in Medicaid coverage as of March. At least 6.4 million people enrolled in Medicaid have been disenrolled as of September 13 of this year, about 36 percent of all people who attempted to renew their coverage. States run by Republican-controlled legislatures lead this trend, with Texas disenrolling nearly 900,000 people and Florida disenrolling 430,000. Only 15 states reported data with breakdowns by age, but the trends from these states alone show a massive impact on children. Of those disenrolled, children made up 42 percent across the 15 states, totaling 1,278,000. In Texas the share of children skyrocketed to 81 percent, while in Kansas, Idaho and Missouri the figure was 50 percent or greater. For people who were able to re-enroll in Medicaid, only 55 percent were re-enrolled through an “ex parte” process by the state administration on behalf of the participant. The other 45 percent had to renew their coverage by themselves through a renewal form. Compounding the evisceration of pandemic era benefits overseen by the Democratic Biden administration is a significant decline in household income as the cost of living continues to soar. According to the Census, real median household income in the US fell by 2.3 percent from $76,330 to $74,580 in 2022, the largest decline since 2008. Since 2019, real median household income has fallen a total of 4.7 percent. Meanwhile, the cost of living rose by 7.8 percent between 2021 and 2022, the largest increase since 1980. The data also showed that the percentage of women working full-time rose to 65.6 percent in 2022, the largest figure ever recorded, while the percentage of men who hold full-time jobs stood at 74.8 percent, potentially reflecting a rise in the number of families where both parents work (48.9 percent in 2022 compared to 46.8 percent in 2021). As the cost of living continues to rise and real wages are eroded, more and more people face destitution and poverty. Among those suffering from the decline in living standards are an increasingly large number of aging Baby Boomers—the generation born between 1946 and 1964—who are facing homelessness. Since 2019, the percentage of people aged 55 and over living in homeless shelters has risen from 16.5 percent to 19.8 percent. This rapid rise in homelessness for older people has been described as a “silver tsunami,” as more people near retirement age without enough savings to pay their expenses. A typical cause of homelessness for older people is the death of a spouse or a medical emergency. The average Social Security payment is just $1,781.63 a month, while the average cost of rent is $2,038 a month. Many Baby Boomers do not have adequate pensions after decades of pension fund mismanagement and concessions given to employers by the pro-corporate union bureaucracies.

To Avert Looming Childcare Disaster, Murray and Sanders Lead Emergency Funding Bill -- Sens. Patty Murray and Bernie Sanders on Wednesday led a group of lawmakers in introducing legislation that would avert a fast-approaching disaster by approving $16 billion in emergency childcare funding each year for the next half-decade.The bill comes just 17 days before billions of dollars of childcare fundingthat was approved to keep the crucial industry afloat during the coronavirus pandemic is set to expire, potentially forcing tens of thousands of childcare programs across the country to shut down.A recent report by The Century Foundation (TCF) estimated that more than 3 million kids could lose their childcare slots if the funding expires, impacting families, childcare workers, businesses, and the overall U.S. economy.TCF calculated that states could lose nearly $11 billion in economic activity per year and parents across the U.S. could face $9 billion in lost earnings annually."Ask any parent, any provider, or any business in just about any part of this country and they will tell you, 'We have a childcare crisis in America,'" Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) said during a press conference introducing the Child Care Stabilization Act on Wednesday. "And that crisis could soon go from bad to worse as essential relief for the sector expires at the end of this month.""We are here today to sound the alarm and put forward a commonsense solution," Murray added, "before childcare providers might have to close their doors, before kids lose their childcare slots, and before parents could face higher costs—or simply be forced to leave their jobs to take care of their kids."Childcare advocates, progressive lawmakers, and states have beenvocally warning about the looming childcare catastrophe for months, but the divided U.S. Congress has yet to act to shore up the struggling sector—and it's unclear whether the new legislation will be able to muster enough Republican support to pass by September 30.Republicans unanimously opposed the American Rescue Plan, a Covid-19 relief measure that established childcare stabilization funding that kept more than 200,000 childcare providers in business and preserved childcare slots for around 10 million kids across the country.

White House holds first-ever summit on the ransomware crisis plaguing the nation’s public schools - The White House on Tuesday held its first-ever cybersecurity “summit” on the ransomware attacks plaguing U.S. schools, in which criminal hackers have dumped online sensitive student data, including medical records, psychiatric evaluations and even sexual assault reports. “If we want to safeguard our children’s futures we must protect their personal data,” first lady Jill Biden, who is a teacher, told the gathering. “Every student deserves the opportunity to see a school counselor when they’re struggling and not worry that these conversations will be shared with the world.” At least 48 districts have been hit by ransomware attacks this year — already three more than in all of 2022, according to the cybersecurity firm Emsisoft. All but 10 had data stolen, the firm reported. Typically, Russian-speaking foreign-based gangs steal the data — sometimes including the Social Security numbers and financial data of district staff — before activating network-encrypting malware then threaten to dump it online unless paid in cryptocurrency. “Last school year, schools in Arizona, California, Washington, Massachusetts, West Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Michigan were all victims of major cyber attacks,” the deputy national security advisor for cyber, Anne Neuberger, told the summit. An October 2022 report from the Government Accountability Office, a federal watchdog agency, found that more than 1.2 million students were affected in 2020 alone — with lost learning ranging from three days to three weeks. Nearly one in three U.S. districts had been breached by the end of 2021, according to a survey by the Center for Internet Security, a federally funded nonprofit. “Do not underestimate the ruthlessness of those who would do us harm,” said Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas during the summit, noting that even reports on suicide attempts have been dumped online by criminal extortionists and urging educators to avail themselves of federal resources already available. Education tech experts praised the Biden administration for the consciousness-raising but lamented that limited federal funds currently exist for them to tackle a scourge that cash-strapped school districts have been ill-equipped to defend effectively. Among measures announced at the summit: The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency will step up tailored security assessments for the K-12 sector while technology providers, including Amazon Web Services, Google and Cloudflare, are offering grants and other support.

Up to $135B in unemployment aid stolen during pandemic: watchdog - The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) estimated that the amount of unemployment insurance (UI) fraud during the pandemic is likely between $100 billion and $135 billion, according to a report released Tuesday. The GAO report tracked the approximately $900 billion in UI expenditures from April 1, 2020, to May 31, 2023, which marked the official end of the public health emergency. The estimated fraud would account for about 11 percent to 15 percent of the total UI benefits during the pandemic. During that same period of time, states reported finding about $55.8 billion in overpayments, about $5.3 billion of which were fraudulent, according to the report. States reported recovering about $6.8 billion, about $1.2 billion were fraudulent. “The unprecedented demand for UI benefits and the urgency with which states implemented the new programs during the pandemic increased the risk of improper payments, including, but not limited to, those due to fraud,” according to the report. Pandemic fraud has long been a concern, as many experts and government officials acknowledged the speed with which agencies had to act to respond to the global pandemic. This report, however, marks an increase in the GAO’s estimated UI fraud compared with previous reports. In December 2022, the GAO estimated that at least $60 billion in fraudulent payments “were made to claimants by extrapolating the lower bound of DOL’s 2021 estimated national fraud rate for the regular UI program to total UI spending.” At the time, the GAO concluded that the rate “could be substantially higher” than the $60 billion lower limit. “We now estimate that the amount of fraud was higher, with our new range of $100 billion to $135 billion falling above the lower limit that we reported in December 2022,” according to the GAO report.

FDA has Gone Rogue - by Robert W Malone MD, MS - Many of us knew this day would come, and now here it is. As of Monday, September 11, 2023, the FDA has provided “Emergency Use Authorization” for the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine boosters. But there is no public health emergency at this time. And the “boosters” being “Emergency Use Authorized” are designed to provide protection against the Omicron variant called “Kraken”. Which is on its way to becoming extinct, outcompeted by newer variants like Eris which have evolved even further to escape the antibody pressure elicited by the globally deployed leaky “vaccines”.Prior versions of which boosters, by the way, have been shown to have been adulterated with high levels of plasmid DNA incorporating SV40 virus promoter/enhancer sequences. Which adulteration the FDA continues to ignore.“Vaccination remains critical to public health and continued protection against serious consequences of COVID-19, including hospitalization and death,” said Peter Marks, M.D., Ph.D., director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research. “The public can be assured that these updated vaccines have met the agency’s rigorous scientific standards for safety, effectiveness, and manufacturing quality. We very much encourage those who are eligible to consider getting vaccinated.”But Biden, under congressional pressure, had decided and certified that the COVID crisis “national emergency” ended May 11, 2023, right? Sort of.The administrative class at the FDA decided that they have the authority to interpret this in their own special way. Despite clear Congressional intent and the Presidential decision, the FDA responded with a series of delaying tactics. These are summarized in an “action notice” in the Federal Register titled “Guidance Documents Related to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), A Notice by the Food and Drug Administration on 03/13/2023”. At the time of the Presidential declaration, the FDA had 72 COVID-19-related guidance documents currently in effect. These are not law, they are administrative guidance, but often function and are enforced as if they are law. If you are seeking an example of administrative state overreach, this would be a good place to start. So, whats an agency to do? Issue an action notice in the federal register laying out new rules, functionally a guidance on guidances.So here are the new rules, as unilaterally determined by FDA administrators. They took those 72 COVID-19 related guidances and divided them into four tables, and determined what they would mandate for the guidances in each table.

• Table 1 were those that would expire when the public health emergency (PHE) would expire.
• Table 2 were those that would be revised to continue in effect for 180 days after the PHE declaration expires, then will no longer be in effect on November 07, 2023 (Tuesday).
• Table 3 were those to be revised to continue in effect for 180 days after the PHE declaration expires, during which time FDA plans to further revise these guidances <and then ??>.
• Table 4 lists COVID-19-related guidance documents whose intended duration is not tied to the COVID-19 PHE and that will remain in effect when the COVID-19 PHE declaration expires. In other words, by administrative fiat, those guidances listed in Table 4 will remain in place for as long as the FDA administrators wish them to remain in place.

And at the top of Table 3 (the ones that they will revise as they see fit and continue as long as they think necessary) is the following:Did they actually revise FDA-2020-D-1137 between then and now? Did they do the work that they said they would do? In short, no. The guidance remains unrevised since March 2022. What congressional law and language determines when FDA can issue EUAs? From the FDA’s own website regarding Emergency Use Authorization-Under section 564 of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (FD&C Act), when the Secretary of HHS declares that an emergency use authorization is appropriate, FDA may authorize unapproved medical products or unapproved uses of approved medical products to be used in an emergency to diagnose, treat, or prevent serious or life-threatening diseases or conditions caused by CBRN threat agents when certain criteria are met, including there are no adequate, approved, and available alternatives.So, basically, the FDA administrative bureaucracy self-determined that they could continue to bypass their normal (already lax) procedures for evaluating vaccine purity (including lack of adulteration), potency, safety and efficacy pretty much for as long as their hearts desire, at least until November 07, 2023. And that is the administrative basis used to enable the September 11, 2023 “Emergency Use Authorization” for the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine boosters. Will that authorization sunset on November 07, 2023? I very much doubt it.

Republicans introduce legislation to ban federal mask mandates in schools, on airplanes - Republicans are offering legislation to ban federal mask mandates in schools, airplanes and forms of public transportation amid a new surge of coronavirus cases that has led to the reinstatement of mask mandates in a handful of places. Sens. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), Mike Braun (R-Ind.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) are co-sponsoring the Senate bill, introduced Tuesday as the “Freedom to Breathe Act.” Rep. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) is listed as a sponsor for the legislation in the House. The lawmakers said they were offering the bill to push back at the imposition of new mask mandates. “Multiple entities within our government, within the public health bureaucracy, there are local schools in the D.C. area now reimposing mask mandates, this is coming back unless we stop it from happening,” Vance said in a statement. “That’s why I introduced this legislation, and I’m going to force the Democrats to vote on it,” Vance continued. “If they say the mask mandates are not coming back, then come to the Senate floor, vote with us, and say ‘no more mask mandates.’ Let’s make it bipartisan.” In reality, there’s little evidence any federal mask mandates are close to being imposed. A recent uptick in COVID-19 cases across the U.S., however, has resulted in some private companies and other entities moving to mask mandates. Vance will try to force floor consideration of the legislation Thursday, he said in the aforementioned statement. The legislation would sunset at the end of 2024 if passed.

California Democrat Barbara Lee rips Gavin Newsom over Feinstein appointment comments -- Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) criticized California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) comments that he would appoint a Black woman to be Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s replacement — but not someone running for the seat. Lee, who is Black, is running for the Senate in California. Feinstein is not running for reelection in 2024, but her health problems and absences from the Senate have raised questions about whether she’ll complete her term. “I am troubled by the governor’s remarks,” Lee said in a Sunday statement. “The idea that a Black woman should be appointed only as a caretaker to simply check a box is insulting to countless Black women across this country who have carried the Democratic Party to victory election after election.” “The perspective of Black women in the U.S. Senate is sorely needed — and needed for more than a few months. Governor Newsom knows this, which is why he made the pledge in the first place,” Lee added. “If the Governor intends to keep his promise and appoint a Black woman to the Senate, the people of California deserve the best possible person for that job. Not a token appointment. “Black women deserve more than a participation trophy. We need a seat at the table.” Newsom has said if he needed to appoint a replacement, he would choose a Black woman, a position he reiterated in an interview Sunday with NBC’s Chuck Todd on “Meet the Press.”

What Ginni Thomas and Leonard Leo wrought: How a justice’s wife and a key activist started a movement - The Supreme Court’s decision in the 2010 Citizens United case transformed the world of politics. It loosened restrictions on campaign spending and unleashed a flow of anonymous donor money to nonprofit groups run by political activists. In the months before the ruling dropped in January of that year, a group of conservative activists came together to create just such an organization. Its mission would be to, at the time, block then-President Barack Obama’s pet initiatives. The activists included Federalist Society leader Leonard Leo and his ideological soulmate, a hard-edged activist named Virginia Thomas, the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. “Ginni really wanted to build an organization and be a movement leader,” said a person familiar with her thinking at that time. “Leonard [Leo] was going to be the conduit of that.” She also had a rich backer: Harlan Crow, the manufacturing billionaire who had helped Thomas and her husband in many ways, from funding luxury vacations to picking up tuition payments for their great-nephew. At the time, the Citizens United ruling was widely expected, as the court had already signaled its intentions. When it came, it upended nearly 100 years of campaign spending restrictions. The conservative legal movement seized the moment with greater success than any other group, and the consequences have shaped American jurisprudence and politics in dramatic ways.From those early discussions among Leo, Thomas and Crow would spring a billion-dollar force that has helped remake the judiciary and overturn longstanding legal precedents on abortion, affirmative action and many other issues. It funded legal scholars to devise theories to challenge liberal precedents, helped to elect state attorneys general willing to apply those theories and launched lavish campaigns for conservative judicial nominees who would cite those theories in their rulings from the bench. The movement’s triumphs are now visible but its engine remains hidden: A billion-dollar network of groups, most of which are registered as tax-exempt charities or social welfare organizations. Taking advantage of gaps in disclosure laws, they shield the identities of most of their donors and some of the recipients of the funds. Among those who’ve been paid by the groups are leading thinkers and individuals with close personal ties to Leo — including a whopping $7 million to a group run by a close friend and his wife. They also include a for-profit business for which Leo himself is chairman and which received tens of millions of dollars from his nonprofit network. Leo’s role as the central figure in this movement has long been known, culminating in his acquisition last year of what many believe to be the largest political donation in history. Few are aware of the extent to which the movement’s baby steps were taken in concert with Ginni Thomas. Two months before the Citizens United decision, but after the justices had signaled their intentions by requesting new arguments, attorney Cleta Mitchell — later to play a role in Donald Trump’s false claims about the 2020 elections — filed papers for Ginni Thomas to create a nonprofit group of a type that ultimately benefited from the decision. Leo was one of two directors listed on a separate application to conduct business in the state of Virginia. Thomas was president. She signed it on New Year’s Eve of 2009, and Crow provided much of the initial cash. A key Leo aide, Sarah Field, would come aboard to help Thomas manage the group, which they called Liberty Central. After Liberty Central went public, it provoked an outcry over a Supreme Court justice’s wife promoting causes like overturning Obamacare that were before her husband’s court. Leo and Thomas changed gears. His network reactivated a dormant group, the Judicial Education Project, which would go on to become a major supplier of amicus briefs before the nation’s highest court. She created a for-profit consulting business using a similar name — Liberty Consulting — that enabled her to perform consulting work for conservative activist groups. The Judicial Education Project supplied some of her business: Documents indicate Leo ordered at least one recipient of his groups’ funds, Kellyanne Conway, to make payments to Ginni Thomas for unspecified work, according to a Washington Post story earlier this year. Now, Liberty Consulting is a focus of interest from congressional committees probing the Supreme Court’s ethics disclosures. Senate Democrats have demanded that Leo and Crow provide a list of “gifts, payments, or other items of value” they’ve given Thomas and her husband.

Gaetz insists he’s serious about McCarthy amid criticism of ’empty threats’ Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) is insisting on social media that he will follow through on threats to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). Gaetz has been engaging with news personalities and Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell (Calif.) over the past few days, insisting he’s serious about his threats. Gaetz initially responded to criticism from “Fox & Friends” host Brian Kilmeade, who said the congressman was “speaking into the wind” over threatening to oust McCarthy if a vote to open an impeachment inquiry into President Biden is not held. Gaetz responded to the video clip of Kilmeade on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, on Thursday to push back on the host’s comments. Swalwell then posted on X that he’d never seen a colleague make more “empty threats” than Gaetz. “I’ve never seen a colleague make more empty threats — day in/day out than this guy. Gaetz folded like a cheap card table to make McCarthy speaker and will never — I repeat never — make a motion to remove McCarthy. I do not work with serious people,” Swalwell wrote. Gaetz later reposted Swalwell’s comments Sunday with the caption, “Bookmark this tweet,” insisting he was ready to move against McCarthy. He also asked Swalwell how many Democrat votes he could deliver if he makes a motion to remove McCarthy. “Are all Democrats so willing, @ericswalwell? Will my NorCal twitter troll have the courage and efficacy to become my dem whip?? If I’ll work with @aoc to ban congressional stock trading I’ll absolutely work with @ericswalwell to rid the House of ineffective leadership,” Gaetz posted on X. “How many votes can you deliver against a Motion to Table a Motion to Vacate, eric? Asking for (many) friends!” he added.

McCarthy directs House committees to open Biden impeachment inquiry --Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on Tuesday directed House committees to open a formal impeachment inquiry into President Biden based on the House GOP’s investigations of his family’s foreign business dealings and the prosecution of his son Hunter Biden. “Today, I am directing our House committees to open a formal impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden,” McCarthy said in a brief statement at the Capitol on Tuesday. McCarthy said the probe will be led by House Oversight and Accountability Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) in coordination with House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-Mo.), who have been leading the investigations. “I do not make this decision lightly. And regardless of your party, or who you voted for these facts should concern all Americans,” McCarthy said. McCarthy’s formal endorsement of impeachment comes after weeks of him saying that he thought the House probes would eventually develop into an impeachment inquiry. In the months that the House Oversight Committee has been investigating the Biden business dealings, it has not found that Biden directly financially benefited from his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings, or proved that he made any policy decisions because of them. Another portion of the House GOP probes center on whether the federal investigation into Hunter Biden, who has been charged with failure to pay income tax and unlawful possession of a firearm, was “slow-walked,” as two whistleblower IRS agents have testified to the House GOP. The White House, which has vehemently pushed back on GOP efforts to launch an impeachment inquiry, said earlier on Tuesday that moving to a formal investigation is “red meat” for the Republican base. “Opening impeachment despite zero evidence of wrongdoing by POTUS is simply red meat for the extreme rightwing so they can keep baselessly attacking him,” Ian Sams, White House spokesman for oversight and investigations, wrote on X.

White House blasts Biden impeachment inquiry: ‘Extreme politics at its worst’ -- The White House blasted Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) move Tuesday to direct House committees to open a formal impeachment inquiry into President Biden, calling it “extreme politics” of the worst kind. “House Republicans have been investigating the President for 9 months, and they’ve turned up no evidence of wrongdoing,” Ian Sams, White House spokesperson for oversight and investigations, said on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “His own GOP members have said so. He vowed to hold a vote to open impeachment, now he flip flopped because he doesn’t have support,” Sams said, referring to McCarthy. “Extreme politics at its worst.” McCarthy said that the probe into Biden — based on the House GOP’s investigations of his family’s foreign business dealings and the prosecution of his son Hunter Biden — will be led by House Oversight and Accountability Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.). Additionally, Comer will work in coordination with Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-Mo.), who have also been investigating the Biden family. Sams also shared an article Tuesday from The Hill from earlier this month with the headline “McCarthy says he won’t open impeachment inquiry without House vote.” “Eleven days ago, Speaker McCarthy committed that he wouldn’t open an impeachment inquiry without a House vote,” Sams said on social media. Additionally, he shared a letter from McCarthy to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) from 2019, during the impeachment proceedings into former President Trump, to highlight that McCarthy pushed back on her moves at the time. “Today, Kevin McCarthy unilaterally decreed an impeachment inquiry and said there’d be no vote,” Sams said in a post. “In 2019, he said the House must ‘intend to hold a vote of the full House authorizing an impeachment inquiry,’ or it ‘would create a process completely devoid of any merit or legitimacy.’”

Senate GOP says House lacks evidence for impeachment -Senate Republicans say the House GOP doesn’t appear to have enough evidence to pursue impeachment proceedings against President Biden and are skeptical about the prospect of setting up an inquiry with multiple committees already investigating the president and his son, Hunter Biden. Republican senators are highly skeptical that Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) could even muster enough votes in the House to pass an article of impeachment and warn it would be quickly dismissed if it ever got to the Senate, possibly without going to a full trial. Their message to House conservatives is simple: Don’t distract from the issues where Republicans will have the upper hand in the 2024 election — the economy and border security — to pursue a fruitless impeachment effort. “It really comes to how do you prioritize your time? I don’t know of anybody who believes [Senate Majority Leader] Chuck Schumer [D-N.Y.] will take it up and actually have a trial and convict a sitting president,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a member of the Senate GOP leadership team. Cornyn noted that House Republicans could investigate the Bidens without launching a formal impeachment inquiry because they control the lower chamber. “Since they got the majority, they got the chairmen of the various committees, they could do all of that now without going to a formal inquiry,” he said. “Members of the House don’t really care what I think. All I can tell you, it’s unlikely to be successful in the Senate. “Rather than doing something they know is unlikely to end the way they would like, maybe they want to emphasize other things.” Cornyn is far from alone in his assessment. Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.) on Monday expressed reservation about linking a bill to avoid a government shutdown to a vote on launching impeachment proceedings. “Well, obviously they can launch [a formal inquiry] there without tying it to government funding. Hopefully they can work all that out, how they want to handle those issues in the House,” he said. Asked if there’s enough evidence to impeach Biden, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), another member of the Senate GOP leadership team, replied: “I do not.

Comer digs in on questions about Biden’s treatment of Ukrainian prosecutor -- House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) is digging in on questions about President Biden’s policies and actions toward Ukrainian prosecutor Viktor Shokin while he was vice president and his son Hunter Biden was on the board of Ukrainian gas company Burisma. Comer sent a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday that builds on unproven and refuted allegations that have circled for years in Republican circles over whether Biden’s public pressure to fire Shokin was related to his son’s work. He requested numerous documents and communications from the State Department surrounding Ukraine and Burisma, including notes and transcripts from Biden’s calls to Ukrainian officials; mentions of lobbying firm Blue Star Strategies that worked for Burisma; mentions of Hunter Biden or his business partners; and documents and communications relating to a $1 billion loan guarantee for Ukraine. Much of what Comer seeks falls into territory covered by prior congressional investigations, but Comer cast his request as needing “context for certain sudden foreign policy changes.” “The committee seeks information regarding the State Department’s perception of the Ukrainian Office of the Prosecutor General, at the time headed by Viktor Shokin,” he wrote. The State Department confirmed receipt of the letter but dismissed Comer’s premise. “As with all congressional inquiries, we aim to be as responsive as possible. Still, it is important to note this is a claim that has debunked for years. It has no basis in fact,” the State Department said in a statement. “What is fact is that the United States, along with members of the international community and anti-corruption advocates, expressed concern about the Ukrainian prosecutor general and a failure to aggressively prosecute corruption.”

Senior FBI agent says Weiss had authority to charge Hunter Biden - The FBI agent overseeing the investigation into Hunter Biden disputed whistleblower claims that the prosecutor in charge of the probe was stymied by the Justice Department, according to the transcript of an interview with lawmakers that took place last week and was obtained by The Washington Post. The question-and-answer session sheds additional light on the long-running investigation, which has become a focal point for Republican allegations of wrongdoing and corruption by President Biden and his family. The younger Biden is facing potential criminal charges for alleged tax and gun violations after the collapse of a plea deal in July. But GOP lawmakers have claimed for years that Hunter Biden’s alleged wrongdoing extends to efforts to use his father’s name and influence to get lucrative business deals overseas.While no concrete evidence has surfaced to support such theories, the Republican claims are a key element of the impeachment inquiry of the president that the House launched Tuesday. In addition, Republicans pointed to allegations by two IRS whistleblowers that the Justice Department stymied aspects of the Hunter Biden probe. The interview transcript obtained by The Post pushed back on some of those claims, specifically that Delaware U.S. Attorney David Weiss told investigators he did not have authority to bring certain criminal chargesagainst the president’s son. But Thomas Sobocinski, who manages the FBI team involved in the investigation, agreed with the IRS whistleblowers that Weiss had moved slowly in making a charging decision.Weiss was appointed as the top federal prosecutor in Delaware during the Trump administration, and launched the Hunter Biden investigation while Donald Trump was in the White House. Attorney General Merrick Garland, a Biden administration appointee, kept Weiss on so he could continue the probe and pledged to give him full decision-making authority.After the plea deal collapsed in July amid a dispute between Weiss’s office and Hunter Biden’s lawyers over whether it gave the younger Biden immunity from additional potential charges, Weiss asked Garland to make him a special counsel in the probe, which gives him a greater degree of independence and allows him to seek indictments in jurisdictions outside Delaware.

The IRS whistleblower at the heart of the Hunter Biden probe took notes. We’ve got them. - Handwritten notes from an IRS agent who worked on the Hunter Biden probe appear to bolster his prior claims that the U.S. Attorney handling the case felt politically hamstrung.The notes from IRS agent-turned-whistleblower Gary Shapley were taken during a meeting on Oct. 7, 2022 with participants from the FBI and the IRS, according to Shapley’s lawyers. In them, Shapley writes that David Weiss, the Donald Trump-appointed Delaware U.S. Attorney who is leading the Hunter Biden investigation, told law enforcement officials he was “not the deciding person” regarding the investigation.“Weiss stated- He is not the deciding person,” Shapley wrote.The notes represent another volley in the increasingly intense back-and-forth over whether the investigation into the president’s son has been tainted by politics. Weiss himself has pushed back on Shapley’s testimony,telling lawmakers that he was “never…denied the authority to bring charges in any jurisdiction.”Empower Oversight, a non-profit group led by former staffers to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) that is helping Shapley, provided the notes to POLITICO. They also provided a letter they sent to the House Judiciary Committee, which is investigating the Biden family.Shapley’s notes are the first written materials from a participant of the Oct. 7 meeting to be made public — and the only contemporaneous documentation of the meeting available thus far. Two other law enforcement officials who attended the meeting have told lawmakers that they do not remember it the same way Shapley does.In the letter, the lawyers write that Shapley took the notes “during the meeting.” Portions of the handwritten notes are redacted and contain “information not previously released by the House Ways and Means Committee,” according to the letter.Shapley, an IRS supervisory special agent who has worked for the agency for 14 years, told lawmakers this summer that Weiss said he did not have ultimate authority in making key decisions about his criminal investigation of the president’s son. It was a dramatic allegation, contradicting Attorney General Merrick Garland, who testified to Congress that Weiss could handle the case however he saw fit. In June, Hunter Biden and his lawyers reached a plea deal with the Justice Department in which he would plead guilty to willfully failing to pay his taxes in 2017 and 2018. Biden later paid those taxes, along with penalties and interest. After a judge raised questions about the plea deal, it collapsed. Prosecutors have said they intend to charge Biden with tax crimes in California or D.C. Biden’s lawyers have argued that such charges are only under consideration because of political pressure from Republicans — fueled by Shapley himself and another whistleblower. Shapley testified that Weiss made the statement during the Oct. 7 meeting about the Biden investigation. One topic in the meeting was whether Weiss could charge Hunter Biden with tax crimes in jurisdictions outside Delaware, which would typically have required approval from the U.S. Attorneys in those jurisdictions.Shapley’s notes touch on that discussion.“USA CA [U.S. Attorney, California Martin] Estrada in charge of authorizing those charges in that jurisdiction,” the notes say. “Weiss requested Special Counsel status in D.C. Main DOJ said ‘NO’ – follow the process”Weiss eventually did receive special counsel status from Garland last month. Prosecutors working under him said in court filings that they plan to seek an indictment of Hunter Biden on gun charges before the end of the month.

Special counsel warned Trump could ‘precipitate violence’ if told of Twitter search warrant -- Newly unsealed court records indicate special counsel Jack Smith’s team warned that former President Trump could “precipitate violence” unless the court shielded its efforts to obtain information on his Twitter account. The records show Smith’s office obtained a total of 32 direct messages from Trump’s account as part of its investigation, with a copy of the warrant also unsealed Friday showing the breadth of the information prosecutors sought. The 71-page filing from prosecutors, submitted to the court in April but unsealed Friday, offers new details about why Smith’s team feared alerting Trump to the matter. The secret battle to obtain the records was revealed in an opinion unsealed in August,, showing that Twitter, now known as X, was fined $350,000 for not complying with a court order to turn over the records. Earlier unsealed court records showed the special counsel was concerned that if Trump knew about the warrant to access his account he could disclose it to the public, something they said “could precipitate violence as occurred following the public disclosure of the search warrant executed at Mar-a-Lago.” The arguments were made as X appealed a lower court order to turn over the information to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. While prosecutors reiterated prior arguments that Trump could jeopardize the case if the warrant was disclosed, it cites Trump’s past behavior as the need to do so. “These are not hypothetical considerations in this case. Following his defeat in the 2020 presidential election, the former President propagated false claims of fraud (including swearing to false allegations in a federal court filing), pressured state and federal officials to violate their legal duties, and retaliated against those who did not comply with his demands, culminating in violence at the U.S. Capitol on January 6,” prosecutors wrote. “More recently, the former President has taken several steps to undermine or otherwise influence the investigation into the potential mishandling of classified information following the end of his presidency, including publicizing the existence of the Mar-a-Lago Warrant.” The filing goes on to detail Trump’s offer to pay the legal fees of those who might otherwise be witnesses against him. “This pattern of obstructive conduct amply supports the district court’s conclusion that the former President presents a significant risk of tampering with evidence, seeking to influence or intimidate potential witnesses, and “otherwise seriously jeopardizing” the Government’s ongoing investigations,” they wrote.

Trump says he’ll testify allegation he asked staffer to delete security camera footage is ‘false’ - Former President Trump in a new interview said he would be willing to testify that an allegation by prosecutors that he acted with an alleged co-conspirator to delete security footage is false. The Justice Department in July filed a superseding indictment in the case over Trump’s retention of classified documents after leaving office that accused Trump of working with the property manager to delete surveillance footage at his Mar-a-Lago estate. Asked about the charge by Kristen Welker on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Trump called the allegation “false.” “Would you testify to that under oath?” Welker asked. “Sure, I’m going to — I’ll testify,” Trump said. Trump also called it a “fake charge” brought by a “deranged lunatic prosecutor,” referring to special counsel Jack Smith, who is overseeing the documents investigation and the federal case against Trump for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results and remain in power. The former president went on to claim that there was “noting done” to the security tapes in question. “And, they were my tapes. I could have fought them,” Trump continued. “I didn’t even have to give them the tapes, I don’t think. I think I would have won in court. When they asked for the tapes, I said, ‘Sure.’ They’re my tapes. I could have fought them. I didn’t even have to give them. Just so you understand, though, we didn’t delete anything. Nothing was deleted.”

Judge asked to limit Trump public statements on Jan. 6 case; prosecutors cite witness intimidation - Special counsel Jack Smith on Friday asked a judge to limit the extent former President Trump can discuss his looming trial on charges related to his effort to block the transfer of power in the 2020 election, citing a history of targeting those who “present an obstacle” to him. The order asks federal district court Judge Tanya Chutkan to restrict “certain prejudicial extrajudicial statements” from Trump about the 2020 election case, limiting his discussion about the testimony or credibility of witnesses as well as court personnel and jurors. The government said the move was needed because Trump “has an established practice of issuing inflammatory public statements targeted at individuals or institutions that present an obstacle or challenge to him.” “The defendant knows that when he publicly attacks individuals and institutions, he inspiresothers to perpetrate threats and harassment against his targets,” it said. Prosecutors again pointed to a social media post from Trump last month in which he said, “If you come after me, I’m coming after you.” “Since the indictment in this case, the defendant has spread disparaging and inflammatory public posts on Truth Social on a near-daily basis regarding the citizens of the District of Columbia, the Court, prosecutors, and prospective witnesses,” prosecutors wrote. “Like his previous public disinformation campaign regarding the 2020 presidential election, the defendant’s recent extrajudicial statements are intended to undermine public confidence in an institution—the judicial system—and to undermine confidence in and intimidate individuals—the Court, the jury pool, witnesses, and prosecutors.”

Prosecutors in D.C. election case are seeking a partial gag order for Trump (AP) — Federal prosecutors are seeking an order that would prevent Donald Trump from making "inflammatory" and "intimidating" comments about witnesses, lawyers and other people involved in the criminal case charging the former president with scheming to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Special counsel Jack Smith's team said in a motion filed Friday that such a "narrow, well-defined" order was necessary to preserve the integrity of the case and to avoid prejudicing potential jurors. Prosecutors had foreshadowed for weeks their concerns about Trump's verbal attacks, but Friday's request marks the first time they have proposed formal action to rein in speech that they say risks tainting the case and causing court workers and witnesses to live in fear of being targeted. The motion lays out what prosecutors say is a pattern of "false and inflammatory" statements about the case as well as comments meant to intimidate or harass people he believes are potential witnesses against him. "Since the grand jury returned an indictment in this case, the defendant has repeatedly and widely disseminated public statements attacking the citizens of the District of Columbia, the Court, prosecutors, and prospective witnesses," prosecutors wrote. "Through his statements, the defendant threatens to undermine the integrity of these proceedings and prejudice the jury pool." They said Trump's rhetoric has already had an impact, noting how jurors in the trial of a man convicted of participating in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol recently sent a note conveying concern that he might have information about their identity. If the order is granted, Trump would be forced to dramatically limit the type of comments he makes about the case even as he seeks to turn his criminal woes — the Washington prosecution is one of four that he currently faces — to his political advantage while running to reclaim the White House in 2024. Still, it was not immediately clear what sanctions Trump could face if he fails to curb his speech or how the judge, Tanya Chutkan, might enforce even a limited gag order.

US opposes Trump request to remove judge in federal election case (Reuters) - U.S. Special Counsel Jack Smith on Thursday opposed Donald Trump’s request to remove the federal judge overseeing the criminal case accusing the former U.S. president of attempting to subvert the results of the 2020 election.Smith, whose office is prosecuting the case against Trump, said there was "no valid basis" for U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan to recuse herself from the case over prior statements she made in court that appeared to reference Trump’s responsibility for the Jan. 6, 2021, attack by his supporters on the U.S. Capitol.Trump, the front-runner for the Republican 2024 presidential nomination, filed a legal motion on Monday asking Chutkan to step aside from the case, arguing that her prior statements raised questions about her impartiality and would taint the proceedings.The filing cited remarks Chutkan made at two sentencing hearings for defendants convicted of taking part in the Capitol riot, including one in which she said rioters were motivated by “blind loyalty to one person who, by the way, remains free to this day.”Trump has frequently criticized Chutkan on social media since she was assigned to preside over the case.The case, which accuses Trump of three schemes to try to overturn his defeat by Democratic President Joe Biden, is one of four criminal cases facing Trump as he runs to retake the White House. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges and accused prosecutors of political motivations. Chutkan, an appointee of former Democratic President Barack Obama, has strongly condemned the attack on the Capitol and has given some rioters more severe sentences than prosecutors sought.U.S. prosecutors said Chutkan’s remarks do not clear the high legal bar that requires federal judges to remove themselves from a case. Judges typically recuse if they have a financial interest in the outcome or a personal connection to someone involved. Chutkan will make the initial determination on whether to step aside.

Judge severs Trump's Georgia election interference case, and 16 others, from trial starting in October - The judge overseeing the Georgia election interference case has severed the case, ordering that 17 defendants -- including former President Donald Trump -- will not be tried alongside speedy trial defendants Kenneth Chesebro and Sidney Powell on Oct. 23.In a blow to prosecutors, Judge Scott McAfee said severing the remaining 17 defendants was "a procedural and logistical inevitability," and did not rule out the possibility that "additional divisions" may be required later.The judge, however, said that any defendant who does not waive their right to speedy trial before Oct. 23 will "immediately" join the trial. Trump has already waived his speedy trial rights.Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis had been seeking to have all 19 defendants in the case stand trial together, arguing that multiple trials would create an "enormous strain" on the court.McAfee last week ordered Chesebro and Powell to be tried on Oct. 23 after they filed speedy trial requests.Chesebro, as part of his defense, had filed a motion asking the DA to disclose the identities of the 30 unindicted co-conspirators referenced in the indictment, and prosecutors told McAfee at a hearing Thursday that they would do so.The names will be shared with defense under a protective order, so they will not be made public.

Ex-Prosecutor Explains Why Latest Georgia Case Development Will 'Devastate' Trump - Former U.S. Army prosecutor Glenn Kirschner says a judge’s decision to break up the Georgia election interference case into two trials could “devastate” former President Donald Trump, one of 19 defendants in the sprawling racketeering probe over attempts to overturn the 2020 election in the state. Judge Scott McAfee on Thursday ruled that 17 of the defendants — including Trump — will not be tried at the same time as two other defendants who sought a speedy trial, pro-Trump attorneys Kenneth Chesebro and Sidney Powell. They come before the court on Oct. 23. On an episode of his “Justice Matters” podcast posted Thursday, Kirschner said Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis and her team will “come out of the gates strong” in the first trial and “prove up the entire conspiracy,” including Trump’s alleged crimes. However, Trump’s lawyers will get to preview the evidence and therefore be able to adjust their defense when it comes to his trial, Kirschner acknowledged. But Chesebro and Powell’s attorneys will only attack the evidence incriminating their clients, he said, so negative Trump news will drip out “day after day, week after week, month after month.” “This is going to hurt, this is going to devastate Trump in the court of public opinion,” said Kirschner. Watch the video here:

Judge temporarily halts trial in New York's fraud lawsuit against Trump - A last-minute legal challenge by former President Donald Trump's lawyers could disrupt a trial scheduled for next month in the New York attorney general's business fraud lawsuit against the former president and his company. A state appeals court judge on Thursday ordered a potential postponement of the non-jury trial, scheduled to start Oct. 2, after Trump's lawyers filed a lawsuit accusing the trial judge, Arthur Engoron, of repeatedly abusing his authority. Justice David Friedman, a judge on the state's intermediate appellate court, granted an interim stay of the trial and ordered the full appeals court to consider the lawsuit on an expedited basis. The court indicated it would issue a decision the week of Sept. 25, meaning the trial could still start on schedule depending on how it rules. The suit, which has not been made public, lists as defendant Attorney General Letitia James and Engoron, who is presiding over the attorney general's case against Trump, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The suit was first reported by The Daily Beast. The suit accuses Engoron of neglecting an earlier appeals court decision that Trump's team says should shrink the scope of the case against him. Engoron may actually rule on motions related to that issue, which revolves around whether some of the alleged fraudulent statements in the case occurred outside a statute of limitations, on Sept. 22. Trump's lawyers also raised Engoron's terse refusal to grant their recent request for a three-week trial delay, which he ruled as "completely without merit." Other proceedings in James' lawsuit against Trump and the Trump Organization will proceed as scheduled, Friedman said. They include oral arguments slated for Sept. 22 on requests from James' office and Trump's lawyers that Engoron decide on some or all of the case before the trial starts.

14h Amendment Trump ballot move: Democratic election officials won't engage - The campaign to keep former President Donald Trump off the ballot under constitutional grounds is not finding much reception with an audience who could quickly force a resolution: Democratic secretaries of state. The nation’s top election officials say they doubt that they can deploy a largely untested legal theory to disqualify Trump from the ballot under the interpretation of the 14th Amendment — and that they shouldn’t be the ones to try it. “The United States Supreme Court is the appropriate place to resolve this issue. The bottom line is it’s not about us at all. It doesn’t matter what a secretary of state does because we expect the Supreme Court to be the final arbiter,” said Michigan Secretary of State Joceyn Benson, a Democrat. The theory argues that Trump is barred by the 14th Amendment from holding public office because he was party to an insurrection: the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. The idea is likely to be met with even more skepticism from Democratic secretaries of state after the Washington Post reported on Tuesday that one of the lawyers working on the legal theory is Jason Torchinsky, an attorney with deep ties to the conservative movement. In an interview with POLITICO, Benson said that she has been in regular conversation with other chief election officials on how to handle the push. Yet the focus on the role secretaries of state could play in it is “misplaced,” she said. “It’s not even appropriate for a state to give the secretary of state authority to do it. It shouldn’t be a unilateral decision from a political appointee or elected official. These should be determinations made by a judicial official,” she said. Attempts to block Trump from the ballot remain in their infancy. The liberal watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, or CREW, filed a lawsuit in Colorado state court looking to block Trump there. Another group, Free Speech for People, had previously sent letters to a handful of secretaries urging them to bar Trump, and sued in Minnesota on Tuesday to get an order to that effect as well. Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon, also a Democrat, said in a Tuesday interview that the law was clear in his state: Only Minnesota’s courts could make that call.

JPMorgan’s Pampered Client, Jeffrey Epstein, Broke a Lot More Laws Than Just Sex Trafficking of Minors -- By Pam and Russ Martens --A closer look at the trail of lawlessness perpetrated by Jeffrey Epstein while he was receiving VIP treatment from executives and licensed brokers at the largest bank in the United States – JPMorgan Chase – demands a comprehensive investigation by a genuinely independent Special Counsel. After Epstein had sexually assaulted dozens of underage school girls in Palm Beach County, Florida, the Florida State Attorney and the U.S. Department of Justice cut him a sweetheart deal that allowed him to serve just 13 months in jail from June 2008 to July 2009 – the majority of the time in a work release program where Epstein was driven to an office each day by his limo driver.After his cozy jail time, Epstein was supposed to spend one year under house arrest at his Palm Beach residence. But in the Netflix series on Epstein, Filthy Rich, based on the book by the same name, a Palm Beach police official explains what actually happened, stating: (See Clip 7 at this link.) “He would violate his probation almost on a daily basis. There’s 11 pages here of just different violations. I think, I, myself, documented 66 different days that he violated his probation…He would go to New York, to his island, he would go to the airport, jump in his helicopter. Who knows where he went – without telling anybody. Every time I brought the probation office a case, they kept telling me the same thing. What would you like us to do? He’s a celebrity. I mean, just think about this: You have a pedophile out on probation – to violate probation in the state of Florida is illegal, except for Jeffrey Epstein.” Despite having videotaped testimony from Epstein’s victims and statements confirming the abuse from a multitude of witnesses, the U.S. Department of Justice allowed this pedophile to remain on the loose – traveling throughout the United States and around the world on his private jets – sexually abusing girls and women for another decade, until his arrest in July 2019 on federal sex trafficking of minor charges.The Department of Justice was likely shamed into finally taking action against Epstein by reporter Julie Brown’s explosive series on Epstein’s sex crimes in the Miami Herald in November 2018.Brazenly violating probation and ramping up his sex trafficking of minors were just two of the multitude of ways that Epstein showed his complete disregard for the laws of the United States. Epstein also violated political campaign contribution laws.Prior to the passage of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002, the contribution limits were not indexed for inflation and remained constant each election cycle. From 1976 through 2002, those federal campaign limits were as follows: $1,000 per individual to a candidate or candidate committee per election; $20,000 to a national party committee per calendar year; $5,000 to any other political committee per calendar year; and $25,000 in total per calendar year. Despite the cap of $25,000 per calendar year, in the calendar year of 1998, according to the Federal Election Commission records, Jeffrey Epstein sluiced $36,000 to the following: $5,000 to the Liberal Party of New York State; $5,000 to the Independence Party Federal Committee; $10,000 to Victory in New York; $5,000 to Win New York (both Victory in New York and Win New York were joint fundraising committees in which the [Charles] Schumer ’98 committee participated); $2,000 to [Daniel Patrick] Moynihan Committee Inc.; and $9,000 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. (See the FEC record here; give the page time to load.) Epstein had shown no broad interest in funding federal political campaigns until after he obtained his bizarre, all-encompassing, power-of-attorney for retailing magnate Leslie Wexner in 1991. According to federal lobbying reports, Wexner’s retailing chain, Limited Inc., spent more than $1 million lobbying for passage of HR 4444, Permanent Trade Relations with China, and HR 434, the Trade and Development Act of 2000, encompassing trade with Africa and the Caribbean Basin. President Bill Clinton signed both pieces of legislation into law in 2000. According to flight logs, Bill Clinton took multiple flights on Epstein’s private jet. News reports also indicate that Epstein visited the White House 17 times while Clinton was President. Another of Epstein’s crimes was violating money laundering laws with the willful blindness of JPMorgan Chase: Under U.S. banking laws, banks are required to file a Suspicious Activity Report (SAR) with the federal Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) under the following circumstances:“insider abuse involving any amount; transactions aggregating $5,000 or more where a suspect can be identified; transactions aggregating $25,000 or more regardless of potential suspects; and transactions aggregating $5,000 or more that involve potential money laundering or violations of the BSA [Bank Secrecy Act].”But according to a court filing in the civil lawsuit brought by the U.S. Virgin Islands against JPMorgan Chase for “actively participating” in Epstein’s sex trafficking venture, the following sums were provided to Epstein in cold hard cash by JPMorgan Chase – despite the bank’s knowledge that Epstein paid his victims and recruiters in cash:“Epstein was able to withdraw large amounts of cash from his JPMC accounts for years [Redacted]. In the year 2003, Epstein was able to withdraw highly suspicious amounts of cash totaling $175,311. In 2004, he withdrew $840,000. In 2005, he withdrew $904,337. In 2006, he withdrew $938,625. In 2007, he withdrew $526,000. In 2008, he withdrew $469,000. In 2009, he withdrew $165,011. In 2010, he withdrew $253,397. In 2011, he withdrew $260,000. In 2012, he withdrew $290,000. In 2013, he withdrew $197,152.”In oral arguments in the U.S. Virgin Islands federal court case in Manhattan on August 31, an attorney for JPMorgan Chase attempted to diffuse the reality of the wads of cash it lavished on a Level 3 Registered Sex Offender by stating that the bank had notified the Treasury Department six times dating back to 2002 about Epstein’s cash withdrawals. But since the bank has not challenged the U.S. Virgin Islands’ statement that the bank never filed Suspicious Activity Reports until after Epstein died while awaiting trial in his jail cell in 2019, that likely means that JPMorgan Chase only filed Currency Transaction Reports (CTRs) — which raise far less red flags than a Suspicious Activity Report.We could go on and on, but, tragically, you get the picture of a law enforcement, financial and political system that lets a brazen child molester and serial crook live in luxury over decades of hideous crimes.

Puerto Rico bank linked to bribery scandal hit with $15 million BSA fine -A Puerto Rico bank seized earlier this year by regulators will pay a $15 million fine in the first enforcement action under a two-year-old federal rule aimed at closing gaps in anti-money-laundering enforcement. Bancrédito International Bank and Trust Corp. — which was placed in receivership this year by banking regulators in the U.S. territory amid a political bribery scandal — agreed to the fine after failing to properly monitor the flow of international funds through it into the U.S. financial system, according to a consent order issued by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. Bancrédito "willfully violated" the Bank Secrecy Act and its implementing regulations, according to the order, which was made public Friday. The order was signed by Ryan Marín, who became receiver of the bank after it was shut down by the Office of the Commissioner of Financial Institutions of Puerto Rico in January. Marín did not respond to a request for comment. Under the order, Bancrédito must surrender its license to operate in the U.S. as an international banking entity and preserve all business records related to BSA compliance. Bancrédito violated a BSA regulation known as the "gap rule," which took effect in March 2021 as part of a regulatory effort to force banks that service international financial institutions to comply with anti-money-laundering rules, according to Fincen. Under the rule, international banking entities in Puerto Rico are now required to maintain anti-money-laundering programs similar to the broader banking industry, Candice Basso, a Fincen spokesperson, said in an emailed statement. Bancrédito "shirked this obligation," Basso said in the statement. Between 2015 and 2022, Bancrédito inadequately monitored the transfer of funds from accounts linked to a Panamanian bank servicing companies and individuals in Panama and Venezuela, according to the order. During this period, the bank also failed to file suspicious activity reports or implement an "adequate" anti-money-laundering program, even after coming under scrutiny from regulators in Puerto Rico, the order states. Bancrédito provided "correspondent accounts to foreign financial institutions without the required due diligence and reporting" mandated by the BSA, Fincen Director Andrea Gacki said in a press release announcing the fine. "Bancrédito processed millions of dollars in suspicious transactions throughout the United States on behalf of high-risk customers," Gacki said.

Ex-Deutsche Bank banker poised to plead guilty to crypto fraud -Former Deutsche Bank investment banker Rashawn Russell, who has denied defrauding investors in a cryptocurrency fraud, appears ready to change his mind and plead guilty to fraud charges, court records show. Russell was indicted in April by federal prosecutors in Brooklyn, New York, accused of duping investors by promising them "guaranteed returns." After repeated postponements for Russell's lawyers to engage in plea negotiations with the government, the case was referred Thursday to a magistrate judge for a "change of plea hearing," according to the court docket, which doesn't say when Russell will next appear in court. This means Russell now intends to plead guilty, said a person familiar with the matter who declined to be identified because the matter isn't public. The case is one of the latest in the government's crackdown on cryptocurrency fraud. In February, Eddy Alexandre, of Valley Stream, New York, pleaded guilty to a commodities fraud scheme in which he admitted swindling hundreds of millions of dollars from investors in his EminiFX cryptocurrency and foreign exchange platform by lying to them about how their money would be invested. Russell's lawyer, Karume James, declined to comment. While Russell promised clients their money would be used for cryptocurrency investments and boasted he'd get them more than than 100% returns, he fabricated documents to show he had substantial liquidity, prosecutors have alleged. Much of the money Russell got from investors was "used for his personal benefit, to gamble, and to repay other investors," the government claims. At the time the case was announced, prosecutors didn't allege wrongdoing by Deutsche Bank and it said it cooperated with law enforcement during the investigation. Russell was also sued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The agency alleged he defrauded retail investors in a digital asset trading fund called "R3 Crypto Fund" that accepted Bitcoin, then misappropriated about $1 million from customers between November 2020 and July 2022. Russell's time awaiting trial hasn't been trouble-free: Prosecutors in June accused him of violating the terms of his bond by going to gambling establishments and using other people's names to obtain credit cards and access gaming websites. A federal magistrate later ordered Russell to wear an electronic monitoring device and directed court officials to track his computer usage.

FTX opposes BlockFi’s bankruptcy plan - FTX objected to BlockFi’s bankruptcy plan Wednesday, claiming it “still suffers from certain fundamental shortcomings.” FTX’s attorneys believe that “the Plan unfairly discriminates against the FTX Claims in certain respects” and have asked the Court to deny the plan. The opposition comes after BlockFi claimed it fell victim to FTX’s former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried actions. FTX is accused of misappropriating and commingling customer funds with Alameda Trading, its sister firm, in a scheme to defraud investors. FTX is attempting to recover both loan repayments and collateral from the bankrupt crypto lender. “The FTX Debtors do not seek to impede the BlockFi Debtors’ efforts to return value to their creditors, but, in the absence of a consensual resolution, must ensure any plan is fair to the FTX Debtors’ creditors, who are the beneficiaries of the FTX Claims,” the Wednesday filing said. FTX argued in the Wednesday filing that the debtors for both BlockFi and FTX had attempted to work “constructively” to reach a proposal “to fairly and efficiently resolve the complex issues between the parties” due to the “dueling debtor” claims. A July report from BlockFi’s committee of unsecured creditors found that BlockFi was aware of the risks associated with lending to Alameda. “BlockFi’s reliance on Alameda/FTX led to foreseeable (actually foreseen) losses of a staggering quantum,” the report stated. FTX and Alameda defaulted on around $680 million in collateralized loan obligations. Furthermore, BlockFi’s credit risk team allegedly drafted a memo warning that Alameda “had unaudited financials” and “was offering volatile collateral.” However, in an August filing, BlockFi argued that FTX and Alameda’s “scheme included fraudulently inducing BlockFi to loan over $1 billion worth of digital assets deposited on the BlockFi platform to Alameda Research.”

Sam Bankman-Fried Blames Everyone but Himself for FTX's Collapse - The New York Times recently got hold of a trove of writings from Sam Bankman-Fried, supposedly from when he was under house arrest. While the most interesting parts are yet unreleased – like a 70-page Twitter thread reportedly offering the ex-CEO of FTX’s “side” of the business failure – there are notable quotes and details that shed further light on SBF’s state of mind before and after the collapse of his crypto empire.Most notably, Bankman-Fried still seems unwilling to take any responsibility for what happened — or even register that $8 billion *somehow* went missing, people lost life savings or that he could spend the next decades of his life rotting in prison. And, somehow, his biggest regret still seems wrapped up in his fallen public persona, as if the weekly court hearings and ongoing bankruptcy process are a detour from his life as a magnanimous, beloved statesman he was destined to live.“I’m broke and wearing an ankle monitor and one of the most hated people in the world,” Bankman-Fried reportedly wrote. “There will probably never be anything I can do to make my lifetime impact net positive.”To be fair, the NYT gave no indication of the real context of why or when Bankman-Fried wrote this down, and it is essentially a personal diary that was leaked to the press. But: What. The. Hell. How unbelievably self-involved does a person have to be to write that they feel broke after losing so much money for so many people.It’s true Bankman-Fried’s lifestyle came crashing down along with his company — he had a taste for luxury real estate, private jets and on-demand delivery. It’s all just another example of how his reputation as a Corolla-driving billionaire schlub was a front. .” Taken together with the line above, this is exactly the same “ends justify the means” mentality that got Bankman-Fried in trouble in the first place.A lot has been written about SBF’s breed of “effective altruism” and why people who pursue profit at all cost because they think they’d be more impactful choosing how to give away their wealth is ultimately … ineffective. But a recent Bloomberg Businessweek article about SBF’s parents, the Stanford Law School professors Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried shows again how certain philosophies have a family resemblance.Bankman and Fried were supportive of SBF on his rise to fame, and remain so in his infamy – despite the fact that he’s thrown their multi-million dollar property in limbo by breaking bail. Bankman, in particular, was reportedly a familiar face at FTX where he regularly attended the closest things to board meetings the grossly mismanaged business had, and gave tax advice. Bloomberg reported that he was treated as a kindly old man, responsible for translating his sometimes hot-headed son’s comments and acting as a sounding board as SBF tried to determine the “right” move. If SBF got his “business sense,” whatever that’s worth, from his dad, he seems to have inherited his mom’s entire system of ethics. SBF has a reputation as a leading consequentialist philosopher, the people who think seriously about the Trolley Problem – or abstract scenarios hypothesizing on whether it’s better to let a train run over one person or turn a lever that would kill many.

How Sam Bankman-Fried's parents enabled his criminal empire - A question that has come up repeatedly in the FTX scandal has been the role of Sam Bankman-Fried’s parents. Namely, how could such respectable people—Stanford law professors famous for their sense of ethics—have raised a sociopath who stole billions of dollars under the guise of altruism? As it turns out, they were Bankman-Fried’s primary accomplices.As a scorching cover story in BusinessWeek reveals, Barbara Fried and Joseph Bankman didn’t just raise a criminal, but actively took part in running FTX and enjoying the spoils of the fraud. They regularly turned up in the company’s offices and were included on important emails, and, most critically, flexed their prestige to open doors in Silicon Valley and Democratic power circles for their son. Meanwhile, these two advocates for the poor helped themselves to a $16 million luxury villa in the Bahamas and $10 million in cash—paid for by FTX customers.While both parents were complicit, Bankman-Fried’s father had the most direct role, drawing on his experience as a famous tax lawyer to help devise the offshore corporate entities as well as “FTT, the made-up currency Bankman-Fried issued when he launched his crypto exchange and the flimsy asset on which a Jenga tower of imagined wealth would sit.”Ironically, Bankman-Fried reportedly plans to invoke an “advice of counsel” defense at his trial next month—basically saying it was his lawyers who led him astray. If that’s the case, it feels like it may be only a matter of time until his dad, who provided that advice, faces criminal jeopardy. Here is howBusinessWeek summed up the matter:“He participated in a number of decisions—including the launch of FTX, the creation of FTT, the company’s courtship of politicians and the dealings with regulators in the Bahamas—that have been criticized by regulators and prosecutors as potentially illegal. Bankman also was involved in the hiring of Friedberg, FTX’s general counsel, who’s been accused of enabling the fraud and working to cover up efforts to expose it, including by paying off potential whistleblowers.” The BusinessWeek article is devastating in its critique of Bankman-Fried’s sleazy parents, but also of the broader community of Stanford University that swaddles its nepo babies in extreme privilege, and spins questionable behavior—like playing League of Legends during board meetings—as evidence of genius. It’s hard not to conclude there is moral rot at the school. In recent years, its leading figures have included not just Barbara Fried and Sam Bankman but Theranos fraudster Elizabeth Holmes and a university president who recently resigned for faking scientific data. These are just some of the revelations from the BusinessWeek article, which may be the best account of FTX to date. It’s well worth reading in full.

DOJ Blasts FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s ‘Intrusive’ Proposed Jury Questions -- The U.S. Department of Justice thinks FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s proposed jury questions are “unnecessarily intrusive” and may be intended to support his defense.Bankman-Fried and the DOJ both proposed voir dire questions earlier this week, ranging from standard queries about whether potential jurors were familiar with the case to more specific questions about whether they knew people with ADHD. These questions will help the prosecutor and defense determine a fair and impartial jury.Several of Bankman-Fried’s proposed questions are “intrusive”, prosecutors wrote in the letter to Judge Lewis Kaplan, of the Southern District of New York. They called out questions that probed potential jurors’ opinions toward FTX, the allegedly fraudulent crypto exchange that collapsed in spectacular fashion last November.“The defense requests numerous open-ended questions about what opinions potential jurors have formed about the case, the defendant, and the defendant’s companies, and asks whether potential jurors can ‘completely ignore’ what they have previously seen,” the letter said. “This is unnecessarily intrusive, and goes beyond the purpose of voir dire.”Questions about whether effective altruism – Sam Bankman-Fried’s claimed philosophical base – are not just unnecessary, but “are a thinly veiled attempt to advance a defense narrative that the defendant was simply ‘amassing wealth’ in order to ‘improve the world,’” the letter said.Similarly, questions about ADHD, which Bankman-Fried takes medication for, are “irrelevant and prejudicial,” the filing said.“The defense is foreclosed from raising a mental disease, defect, or condition defense – no notice of such a defense … was provided by the Court-imposed deadline,” the filing said. “Telling the jury that the defendant has ADHD would serve only to improperly cast the defendant at the outset of the trial in a sympathetic light.” Prosecutors also have the trial’s tech infrastructure on their minds: They’ve requested a high-speed ethernet connection as well as a printer for the government’s use, plus headphones for the jury. “This will greatly facilitate the effective and efficient presentation of evidence,” they wrote in a letter to Judge Kaplan.

Franklin Templeton joins race to offer U.S. spot bitcoin ETF Franklin Templeton has joined fellow asset manager powerhouses Fidelity and BlackRock in the race to win approval to offer the first U.S. exchange-traded fund that invests directly in bitcoin. The San Mateo, California, firm, which oversees more than $1.4 trillion of assets, filed an application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday. If approved, Franklin plans to use Coinbase Global as custodian for the fund's bitcoin holdings and Bank of New York Mellon for cash.Bitcoin has rallied in part this year on optimism that interest from large asset managers such as BlackRock and Franklin suggests that the SEC will be more receptive of approving the funds after years of rejections. The main U.S. securities regulator deferred making a ruling on a slew of applications at the end of August. Bitcoin advocates argue that ETFs would open the digital currency to a broader investment base and likely lead to higher prices. The SEC has cited concerns about fraud and market manipulation in the past when rejecting earlier filings. The outlook for approval took a positive turn in August after Grayscale Investments won a key victory over the SEC when a federal appeals court overturned the rejection of firm's application to convert its bitcoin trust into an ETF. In the decision, the denial was called "arbitrary and capricious" because the commission failed to explain its difference treatment of similar products. ETFs that hold bitcoin futures were approved in 2021. Franklin Templeton launched a money-market fund that records share ownership on a blockchain in 2021. Total assets in the Franklin OnChain U.S. Government Money Fund have increased to nearly $300 million, according to its website.

Federal agencies warn of rising deepfake threats - Three federal agencies released a joint report Tuesday calling on companies to brace themselves against dangers presented by AI-generated media, particularly deepfakes, that increasingly threaten to undermine trust in and authenticity of various forms of digital media.The FBI, National Security Agency, and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency released the 18-page information sheet, which overviews how deepfakes can impact organizations, the emerging trends in these threats, and extensive recommendations for resisting deepfakes."Deepfakes are a particularly concerning type of synthetic media that utilizes artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) to create believable and highly realistic media," reads the information sheet. Abusive techniques that leverage this tech "threaten an organization's brand, impersonate leaders and financial officers," and can "enable access to an organization's networks, communications and sensitive information."The information sheet forecasted that "phishing using deepfakes" (impersonation schemes that involve synthetic video and or audio) will eventually become "an even harder challenge than it is today," and the agencies advised companies to "proactively prepare to identify and counter it."Deepfakes get their name from deep learning, which is a class of machine learning algorithms that uses multiple layers of neural networks to extract progressively higher-level features from data.For example, in a deep learning algorithm trained to recognize language, one layer might parse basic parts of speech (verbs, nouns, adjectives, etc.) while the next layer might parse basic sentence structures. Progressively deeper layers might parse more complex linguistic features and context, like idioms or sentiments. Just as large language models have recently begun to display mastery of high-order features of language — for example, how to follow written instructions — models designed to generate photos have also gained in their capabilities, with OpenAI's DALL•E and Stability AI's Stable Diffusion the most popular examples. Video and audio generation has also gained, according to Rijul Gupta, CEO and co-founder of AI communications company DeepMedia."Deepfakes have gotten more sophisticated — not to mention easier to create — over the years," Gupta said. "Today, a hacker can manipulate a person's voice using just seconds of audio."The FBI, NSA and CISA highlighted two examples in their joint report of unknown malicious actors deploying deepfakes in May as part of a phishing campaign. In one case, a product line manager was contacted over WhatsApp and invited to a call with a sender claiming to be the CEO of the same company."The voice sounded like the CEO and the image and background used likely matched an existing image from several years before and the home background belonging to the CEO," the agencies reported.A similar scheme also involved a CEO impersonator conducting video calls with an employee over both WhatsApp and Microsoft Teams, then switching to text because the connection was poor. In this case, the employee caught on and terminated communication. The agencies said the same, unnamed executive had been impersonated via text message on other occasions.

SEC's Gensler warns of AI risk to financial stability — Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler warned lawmakers that artificial intelligence could, one day, cause a financial crisis. Gensler, during an SEC oversight hearing held by the Senate Banking Committee, said that AI is already being used in financial markets and institutions. "Predictive data analytics and artificial intelligence already have been used and used extensively in finance even before the recent [emergence of] ChatGPT," he said. "It's used in robo advising and brokerage apps, and it's also used by more sophisticated investors who may be listening to this testimony right here and having computers analyze it and making market decisions." He acknowledged that AI offers some potential benefits, such as making markets more efficient or strengthening compliance with anti-money-laundering and other regulations. Yet he pointed to dangers that the technology could present. "There are some risks in our capital markets, some which could lead to conflicts in the markets and some that are harder to grapple with," Gensler said. "It may well be that the financial crisis in a number of years, or in 10 years, is because we find everyone in the mortgage market may be relying on one model." The SEC is one of several regulators charged with the first phase of a joint rulemaking for the Financial Data He said that the SEC has put out a proposal on what he called its "conflict of interest" rule, which would prohibit securitization participants from engaging in certain transactions that could incentivize them to structure an asset-backed security in a way that would prioritize the participants' interests above those of investors. Gensler's interest in AI predates his term atop the SEC. In 2020, as an academic at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School of Management, he co-wrote a paper called "Deep Learning and Financial Stability," which details views on how existing "financial regulatory regimes are likely to fall short in addressing the systemic risks posed by broad adoption of deep learning in finance." The SEC has fielded complaints about the agency's posture toward emerging technologies from some trade groups and Republican lawmakers. "The new predictive data analytics proposal reveals the commission's rather hostile attitude towards technology," said Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., during the hearing. Gensler said, in response, that his approach is "technology-neutral." "If an investment advisor, think about a robo advisor, is telling you their advice and it's purely based on your family and your wealth and so forth, great," Gensler said. "But if they're also taking into account their own interest and profits, their revenues and the like, therein lies a potential conflict. And whether they're using machine learning or other data analytics, there may be a conflict there."

Bank disintermediation, Fed control fuel bipartisan skepticism of CBDC — Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle said at a Thursday hearing of the House Financial Services Committee digital assets panel that a Fed-issued retail central bank digital currency could stifle bank lending and grant excessive power to the Federal Reserve, highlighting the significant political headwinds facing any proposal to create a digital dollar. Subcommittee chair French Hill R-Ark., likened a retail CBDC to an Obama-era policy critics say the administration wielded to discourage banks from doing business with industries they perceived as posing reputational risk, like pawn shops and firearms dealers."Some of us that oppose a U.S. CBDC warn, for example, that an unchecked government could monitor your purchases at the gun store, flag you as a threat, cut off your access to your bank accounts, even though you haven't done anything illegal," Hill said. "You think operation choke point was bad? Let that sink in." Congressman Brad Sherman, D-Calif. — an unlikely ally to many of his Republican colleagues on this particular issue — also expressed concerns about how a Fed retail CBDC could enable the executive branch to pick and choose which industries could have access to banking. He noted while Operation Choke Point targeted traditional Republican allies like gun makers, the policy could just as easily be wielded by a GOP administration to target industries Democrats favor."I know there were some on the Democratic side who said, 'Yes, go after payday lenders and go after gun manufacturers,'" he said. "How will that sound when Planned Parenthood can't get a bank account? The power to take somebody out of the banking system is the power to impair if not destroy them."While the effects of a retail CBDC gave some in both parties pause, others members noted their interest in further exploring a CBDC's potential costs and benefits. Rep. Steven Lynch, D-Mass., who serves as the subcommittee ranking member, announced the creation of a congressional digital dollar caucus to educate members on critical issues relating to the development design and potential implementation of a government issued digital dollar."[CBDC] could serve as an alternative to existing forms of payments and have a benefit, including instant payment settlement, providing a medium for cross-border transactions and fostering greater financial inclusion," he said.At the same time that many GOP members worried the government could use the CBDC to restrict funds for certain industries, more hardline CBDC skeptics said they want to see an instant payments system that is permissionless and private, making sure the government cannot see who is sending their money where, much like cash.

US is looking to offload nearly $13 billion of MBS seized from SVB and Signature -- The US government has been looking at ways to offload nearly $13 billion of mortgage bonds it amassed from failed lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, according to people with knowledge of the transactions. The bonds are backed by long-term, low-rate loans made mainly to developers building affordable apartment buildings. They were part of a $114 billion portfolio that ended up with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. when it took over SVB and Signature. The FDIC hired BlackRock to help liquidate the broader portfolio, and the money manager sold most of the assets within a few months. But BlackRock didn't offload what has turned out to be the trickiest holding: about $12.7 billion of bonds tied to project loans supported by Ginnie Mae. The FDIC has discussed alternatives to slashing the prices on the bonds, including potentially repackaging the debt into new securities, the people with knowledge said. BlackRock had preliminary conversations with investors about the bonds, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing non-public information. But the securities proved hard to sell in part because the bonds will probably pay below-market coupons for years. The loans backing them were made before the Federal Reserve started hiking, often come with high penalties if they are refinanced in their first 10 years, and can take decades to mature. The project-loan bonds the FDIC aims to offload amount to the volume that Ginnie Mae often sells in about a year. The trouble with these bonds underscores the pain that failed banks can bring to the government, even after new lenders take them over. "It's a very large chunk of bonds, and there are so many factors here working against the easy liquidation of these assets," said Richard Estabrook, a mortgage backed securities strategist at Oppenheimer & Co, who isn't directly involved in the sale but has looked at the bonds. "By comparison, everything else was straightforward." BlackRock declined to comment. The FDIC confirmed the bonds were not part of the BlackRock sales process and declined further comment.

Another FDIC-Insured Bank Is Teetering, Closing at 27-1/2 Cents Yesterday, Down 96 Percent in a Year -By Pam and Russ Martens - There may be a lesson here: don’t put the word “Republic” in the name of your bank; don’t hold a lot of uninsured deposits; and don’t have wads of unrealized losses on your investment securities. If those lessons sound familiar, it’s because they played out in stunning fashion earlier this year when the second, third and fourth largest bank failures in U.S. history occurred. One of those banks that blew up was First Republic Bank, which was put into FDIC receivership on May 1 and later sold, under much controversy, to the already behemoth JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the U.S. (JPMorgan Chase can’t seem to stay away from criminal charges. It thus far has notched five felony counts in its belt and is currently being sued by the U.S. Virgin Islands for “actively participating” in Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking of minors by providing him with more than $5 million in hard cash over a decade.) Now, another bank with the word “Republic” in its name is in deep distress. The holding company of the current problem bank is Republic First Bancorp (trading ticker FRBK), whose federally-insured banking unit is Republic Bank.As of June 30, according to regulatory filings, Republic Bank held $6 billion in assets and had 35 branches in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. More than half of its deposits were uninsured. Its SEC filings are not up-to-date but in its 10-Q (quarterly report) for the period ending September 30, 2022, it had this to say about those uninsured deposits:“As of September 30, 2022, our 100 largest bank depositors accounted for, in the aggregate, 16% of our total deposits. The majority of these deposits are not insured by the FDIC and could present a heightened risk of withdrawal, if such depositors materially decreased the volume of those deposits, it could reduce our liquidity. As a result, it could become necessary for us to replace those deposits with higher-cost deposits or FHLB borrowings, which would adversely affect our net interest income and, therefore, our results of operations.”Republic First Bancorp’s stock price has declined by 96 percent in the past 12 months as of yesterday’s closing price. Its stock was delisted from Nasdaq last month and it closed at a stunning 27-1/2 cents in over-the-counter trading yesterday.Republic First Bancorp is far from the only bank holding company that has suffered huge share price losses over the past 12 months. HomeStreet (ticker HMST) has lost almost 75 percent of its market value. It’s a West Coast bank with 60 branch offices in Washington state, Oregon, California and Hawaii. As of June 30, it had assets of $9.5 billion.PacWest Bancorp, parent of Pacific Western Bank, has also suffered steep share price losses, losing over 70 percent in the past year. Pacific Western Bank has 77 branches and $38 billion in assets as of June 30.A much smaller bank holding company, Carver Bancorp, is the parent of Carver Federal Savings Bank, which has 7 branch offices in New York and $713 million in assets as of June 30, according to the FDIC. Its stock has lost 56 percent of its value over the past 12 months. This is just a tiny sampling of the ongoing wreckage to equity values in the banking sector – raising the very serious question as to how this is all going to shake out before year’s end.

Investment-Grade Corporate Giants Suddenly Sell Huge Amounts of Debt to Front-Run even Higher Long-Term Yields - By Wolf Richter - Why would corporate giants suddenly pile into the corporate bond market with large-scale new issuance in September at these high interest rates? Why not wait for that Fed pivot and rate cuts that must be coming any moment, no? Because they want to lock in these interest rates that they can still get, before rates rise even further. These companies are not betting on rate cuts. A year ago, they bet on rate cuts that didn’t come. Now they bet on higher for longer – on higher inflation and higher long-term interest rates for longer – and they’re issuing bonds at a red-hot pace in September before rates go even higher. Today’s shining example is T-Mobile US [TMUS] which announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary T-Mobile USA, plans to sell a pile of new debt, with the amounts and rates still left blank in the filing. According to sources cited by Bloomberg, the senior unsecured notes would amount to $2 billion, including unsecured senior notes with 10-year and 30-year terms. The 30-year notes, due in 2054, are expected to price at about 1.63 percentage points above Treasury securities, according to Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the deal. A spread of 1.63 percentage points would price the bonds at a yield of around 6%! A survey of investment bankers who underwrite corporate debt sales forecast $120 billion of US debt to be issued in September, according to Bloomberg. That would be about 34% higher than in September 2022, when $89 billion in investment grade debt was issued, according to SIFMA (Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association). Today’s 10-year Treasury yield, at 4.30%, is a full percentage point higher than last year’s at this time. But it’s at these much higher yields this September that debt issuance is taking off. On Tuesday after the Labor Day weekend, at least 20 investment-grade companies sold over $36 billion in new debt in the US, the biggest day this year, ahead of May 16 ($33 billion) and January 3 ($34 billion), according to Bloomberg. Companies that issued bonds in the US after Labor Day included big deals by BHP Billiton with $4.75 billion of senior unsecured notes in a five-part deal, including 30-year notes; and Philip Morris International with $2.35 billion of senior unsecured notes, whose longest-dated portion were 10-year notes. And in September 2022, there was hesitation by companies in issuing new debt as everyone was waiting for the Fed to slash rates again. Today, this scenario appears to be on the back burner, and companies are locking in the rates they can get now for the long term, including for 30 years. “I would expect companies to be trying to get ahead of any economic data that sends US Treasury yields higher,” Winnie Cisar, global head of credit strategy at CreditSights, told Bloomberg. “I think we will see a front-loaded issuance month.”

“Unrealized Losses” on Securities Held by Banks, Oh Dearie, the Whole Schmear: +8%, to $558 Billion - On one level, it makes sense. The closer the bonds get to the maturity date, the closer the market value gets to face value, and the unrealized losses vanish, and on the day the bonds mature, the banks get paid face value, and there are no losses, and everyone smiles. On another level, the bank collapses. During a bank run, when scared uninsured depositors yank their money out, banks have to sell assets to cover their cash outflows from the run. But now the banks only get market value for those securities – if that, during a fire sale – and not their original purchase price, and they have huge losses on those sales that vaporize their capital. No cash, no capital, no problem? Big problem. That’s why we now have to pay attention to unrealized losses in the banking system. Banks can hedge against rising interest rates, but some banks prefer to collapse. Hedges against the risk of rising interest rates, such as interest-rate swaps, can be costly, and some banks don’t hedge, or don’t hedge enough, because executives prefer to show a little extra income to prop up the banks falling stock price and to fatten up their compensation. SVB terminated or let expire nearly all its remaining interest-rate hedges in 2022, to where by the end of 2022, they were nearly all gone, and three months later it collapsed. Where are banks now? Unrealized losses rise by 8% to $558 billion. The balance of unrealized losses on securities – mostly Treasury securities and government-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities – at FDIC-insured commercial banks rose by $43 billion, or by 8%, to $558 billion in Q2, after two months of declines, according to the FDIC’s bank data on Thursday. This $558 billion is the cumulative loss balance over time on all securities. The balance rose because longer-term yields rose in Q2: The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.84% on June 30, from 3.47% on March 31, and so bond prices fell over the period. In the free-money periods, when yields fell and bond prices rose, banks had “unrealized gains” (green). And in the periods when yields rose and prices fell, banks had “unrealized losses” (red). These unrealized losses of $558 billion were spread over two categories of bank accounting treatments: Unrealized losses on held-to-maturity (HTM) securities: $309.6 billion. Unrealized losses on available-for-sale (AFS) securities: $248.9 billion. The balance of unrealized losses is down by $131 billion from the peak in Q3 2022, in part because three banks with big unrealized losses collapsed, and their balance sheets vanished from the system, with losses getting transferred to the FDIC. Already gotten worse in Q3 so far. Thing is, today, the 10-year yield closed at 4.27%, and if it’s still at 4.27% at the end of September, it would be another 43 basis points higher than at the end of Q2, and the balance of unrealized losses will be higher yet again. A bank that bought $1 million of 10-year T-notes at the Treasury auction on August 12, 2020, at the very tippy-top of the 40-year bond bull market, ended up with a security that paid a coupon interest rate of 0.625% per year. Today, this security has seven more years to run before maturity, and so trades like a 7-year Treasury security, and the 7-year yield today in the market is 4.35%. So how much is a security worth today with a coupon of 0.625% per year and with seven years to maturity, when the equivalent market yield is 4.35%? Roughly, that $1,000,000 in 10-year T-notes might be worth $778,000 in the market today – thank you, bond-price calculator. Results may vary.

BankThink: SEC's proposed conflict-of-interest rules include a massive oversight | American Banker -- One can be forgiven for losing track of the rules coming out of the Securities and Exchange Commission. From regulations that would reshape the wild west of cryptocurrencies to new restrictions on the equity markets, the SEC is fiddling with the rules in almost every area under its jurisdiction. The affected spectrum of markets is vast. So too is the range of problems it has sought to address. If done properly, SEC rules can strengthen the integrity of markets and ensure investors have the information they need to make informed decisions. But some of the SEC's proposed solutions carry unintended and unwanted consequences that could easily get lost in the whirlwind of activity. Government rules can stabilize markets over time or disrupt them depending on how the regulations are written. Sometimes the scales tip in favor of the beneficial side and other times they go the other way. One pending SEC rule has the weight of a pebble on the benefits side and an anvil on the negative side. Dubbed the "conflicts of interest" rule, the proposal attempts to codify part of the Dodd-Frank Act by preventing any institution that securitizes — or bundles — loans into bonds from betting against those same securities. On its face, the rule makes a great deal of intuitive sense. Investors certainly benefit from knowing they aren't being sold a security that has been designed to fail. The SEC could use a rifle shot approach to prevent such conflicted behavior, which could augment the already high integrity of this market that serves millions of consumers and businesses. But its proposal is more like a bazooka that would threaten financial stability if allowed to go into effect as drafted. In fact, the rule even targets the very investors it ostensibly aims to protect. It would subject them to the same insurmountable compliance regime for normal course trading as issuers and it would eliminate their critical voice in ensuring that securitization deals are put together in ways that match their fiduciary duty to clients. The proposed rule would put three buckets of trades out of bounds for any entity, affiliate or subsidiary involved in securitization whatsoever. The first bucket would bar a financial institution from selling short a security that it helped to develop, which makes sense. That's clearly a conflict of interest. The second bucket would prevent an institution from creating a derivative that would short the original security, which is rare, but also a reasonable approach. The third bucket of restrictions, however, would be a real problem if implemented. Under it, an institution would be prohibited from entering into any other transaction through which it would benefit from the actual or potential adverse performance or decline in market value of the security. Among other things, this prohibition would make impossible a number of ordinary-course — and necessary — business activities, including using risk-mitigating trades. If read literally, the rule would seem to eliminate any firm's ability to engage in hedging of any kind. The SEC says it will closely consider the impact of the rule on risk-mitigation trading. That is wise, as the conditions that it has proposed for normal trading and risk mitigation are too onerous for any institution to meet. These conditions would require a firm to monitor every trade and then disclose a specific and quantifiable risk that those trades are designed to hedge against. But market hedging is not an exercise in ivory-tower management. Some of the analytics behind risk management might fall under the category of data and statistical science, but hedging itself involves many subjective trade-offs, macro decisions, and intuition for risks that don't appear on a company's enterprise-risk report.

FDIC Releases a New Problem Bank List: It’s an Exercise in Fantasy - By Pam and Russ Martens -- Last Thursday, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) released its Quarterly Banking Profile for the quarter ending June 30, 2023. The report includes the FDIC’s Problem Bank List. While the actual names of the problem banks aren’t provided, the total assets listed provide an indication of whether any large banks are on the list.The FDIC’s first quarter banking profile had published a “Problem Bank List” showing just 43 banks with total assets of $58 billion as of March 31, 2023. Unfortunately, on March 10 Silicon Valley Bank blew up with assets at year-end 2022 of $209 billion. Two days later, on March 12, Signature Bank blew up with assets of $110 billion as of year-end. Clearly, the FDIC did not see these as problem banks in advance of their blowing up in a matter of days.What the FDIC did know by last Thursday, however, was that on May 1 First Republic Bank had also blown up. As of year-end, it held assets of $213 billion. Since May 1 falls within the second quarter of the year, we would have expected to see a corresponding increase in the size of the bank assets listed on the FDIC’s Problem Bank List when it was released last Thursday.Instead, the FDIC was still clinging to its Alice in Wonderland approach to the banking landscape in the U.S. Its Problem Bank List for the second quarter showed the number of problem banks unchanged at 43 while the assets of those banks declined from $58 billion at the end of the first quarter to $46 billion at the end of the second quarter.First Republic Bank was the second largest banking failure in U.S. history. (The largest bank failure was Washington Mutual during the financial crisis of 2008.) Silicon Valley Bank was the third largest bank failure in U.S. history while Signature Bank ranks fourth. On August 21, S&P Global downgraded by one notch the credit ratings on KeyCorp, Comerica, Valley National Bancorp, UMB Financial Corp and Associated Banc-Corp. The assets of those banks are as follows: KeyCorp $193 billion; Comerica $91 billion; Valley National $62 billion; UMB and Associated $41 billion each. The assets at all five banks tally up to $428 billion.Both KeyCorp and Comerica’s publicly-traded shares have lost more than 40 percent of their value over the past 12 months. S&P’s credit downgrades to banks on August 21 followed sweeping bank credit downgrades by Moody’s on August 7. (See our report: Moody’s Cuts Credit Ratings on 10 Banks; Places 4 of the 15 Largest Banks in U.S. on Review for Possible Downgrade.) On March 13, Moody’s had downgraded its outlook for the entire U.S. banking system. To put it bluntly, the FDIC’s Problem Bank List showing just $46 billion in assets in total for all problem banks in the United States is an insult to the intellect of the American people.

BankThink" An insidious plan in Washington would put small lenders at risk | American Banker -- We expect certainty to work in our lives every time without fail — until something goes awry, and we're left frustrated and angry. In policy circles, political opportunists use these moments to engage with performative overreaction rather than meaningful examination. So, it's no surprise that in the wake of several high-profile failures earlier this year, our banking system is having one of these moments, and the viability of its future is dinner conversation. Americans are now wondering: "Are my deposits safe?" or "Is our neighborhood lender going to be around in five years?" In political circles, there is a growing interest in imposing new capital requirements envisioned to protect consumers that large banks with scale can comfortably meet, but could cripple the viability of smaller, local banks — essentially facilitating the very destabilization that these new policies were designed to avoid. Additionally, a related set of voices is advocating the diminishment of another of the long-standing institutions that smaller banks have relied upon to level the playing field with the large banks. A once largely unknown yet stabilizing force behind the American banking industry, the Federal Home Loan Bank System, is now being questioned for doing the work that banks, credit unions, insurance companies and CDFIs have relied on it to do for decades. Home Loan banks are wholesale providers of liquidity to regional and community lenders, who for over 90 years have supported residential homeownership, community development and affordable housing programs. Our financial system is differentiated from those of other countries in a critical way: We have decentralized banking that allows for an intimate relationship between lender and borrower. Unlike the handful of national banks in the U.K. or Canada, the United States has more than 6,000 financial institutions, with branches on Main Streets all across our country. There's a well-known adage: All real estate is local. The same can be said for banks and credit unions. Historically, banks and credit unions lent money to families and businesses based on three factors: credit, collateral and character. Smaller institutions are more likely to have relationships with individuals and small businesses. They are the ones that fund Little League teams, shelters and community activities because they reside in the communities they serve. Yet, local lenders are under a real threat today. An insidious conversation is happening in the recesses of Congress that could have a very harmful impact on our national banking system and the viability of community lending in this country. This conversation takes a hostile view of the Federal Home Loan banks, which, despite being engines of economic development, are being attacked by a small handful of dishonest yet megaphone-savvy critics seeking to limit their impact, putting local community lenders in harm's way.

Senate schedules cannabis banking vote — The Senate Banking Committee is planning to have a markup on the Secure and Fair Enforcement Act, or SAFE Banking Act, which would make it easier for banks to provide services to legal marijuana businesses, before the end of the month. The long-awaited reform to how legal marijuana businesses could access financial services, which has started and stalled for years in Congress, could finally move ahead after several key Republicans softened their opposition to the bill. The markup is scheduled for Sept. 27. NBC originally reported the news. The SAFE bill is expected to have enough votes from Republicans and Democrats to pass through the Senate. Forty-two senators currently co-sponsor the legislation, including eight Republicans. Those Republicans include Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, Steve Daines of Montana, Dan Sullivan and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Susan Collins of Maine.Nearly a decade after Colorado and Washington state first legalized the substance, legal cannabis companies have been plagued with an overabundance of cash. Major payment companies like Visa and Mastercard have explicit policies preventing their electronic systems from being used to purchase or sell cannabis so long as it remains criminalized at the federal level, and as a result those companies have to do business primarily in cash. That reality is a deterrent for many banks, which would prefer not to take on clients who pose such a significant security risk by dealing so heavily in cash. Some of those Republican lawmakers come from states where recreational cannabis is still illegal. The final agreement on the bill will have to be narrowly tailored to financial services in order to keep Republicans from deep Red states from abandoning the legislation. That said, it's still a tricky issue for many Republicans. Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., has publicly supported the measures in the SAFE Banking Act, but isn't formally co-sponsoring the legislation after facing pushback from conservative and law enforcement groups in his home state. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., included the cannabis banking legislation — alongside a package that would make it easier for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to claw back the compensation of failed bank executives — in a recent "Dear Colleague" letter outlining efforts the majority in the Senate would tackle in September. Despite that hint, the news of the upcoming markup is significant because of the number of false starts the cannabis banking legislation has experienced over the years.

BankThink: Call Sen. Hawley's bluff on credit card interest rate cap | American Banker — Not everyone knows this — though I suspect most bankers do — but there is no federal limit on credit card interest rates. They're dependent on what state the issuing bank and/or customer resides in, the customer's credit score, payment history and any number of variables. That makes sense because credit card users are not all the same. Some pay their balances in full each month; some carry a modest balance; and some are scammers using fake identities to bilk banks out of all the money they can before they disappear. In other words, some credit card debts pose a greater risk to the lender than others, and lenders are justified in pricing that risk accordingly. But there has been a persistent and surprisingly bipartisan effort in Congress to impose some kind of federal cap on consumer loans, including credit cards. Back in 2021, Rep. Glenn Grothman, R-Wis., joined Rep. Jesús "Chuy" Garcia, D-Ill., in introducing a bill that would cap rates on payday, car title and credit card loans at 36%; state legislatures are already doing the same thing, with Illinois and New Mexico passing 36% caps and several other states mulling similar legislation. So it is with some surprise that we learned Monday that Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., said he intends to introduce a bill in the Senate that would go still further, capping credit card interest rates at 18%. "Americans are being crushed under the weight of record credit card debt," Hawley told Real Clear Politics. "The government was quick to bail out the banks just this spring … but has ignored working people struggling to get ahead." Almost all states have usury laws setting out a maximum allowable interest rate, but that rate is as variable as the word "usury" is vague and charged — Idaho, for example, has a maximum payday loan rate of 652%. Usury — derived from the Latin usas, "to use" — is an ancient term that was meant to define the charging of interest of any kind, a sin according to all Abrahamic religions because it creates the conditions whereby the prosperous can benefit from other people's misfortune. That definition has evolved over the course of a thousand years or so to mean charging excessive interest, which again makes sense. But what makes less and less sense over time is a system whereby there can be wildly divergent interest rates depending on the state in which one lives — or, more accurately, the state under whose jurisdiction your bank (or nonbank) legally operates. Still more ridiculous is the fact that there already is a federal credit card interest rate cap of 36% on the books, but it only applies to active duty military personnel. If you ask me, if Congress deems it unfair for lenders to charge high rates of interest to our soldiers and sailors, they could just as easily decide that it's unfair for those rates to be charged to anyone. So in this instance, I agree with Sen. Hawley entirely.

Banking industry goes on offensive against Basel III endgame proposal --The banking industry and its allies are ramping up their efforts to combat federal regulators' plan to increase capital requirements on banks with at least $100 billion of assets.Initially opting for a passive approach focused on research papers and a website dedicated to sussing out the "price tag" of higher capital requirements, bankers and bank lobbyists are taking the fight to regulators more directly through advertising campaigns and procedural challenges."The industry appears more willing to battle the regulators on this issue than any in recent memory, which suggests that we could see litigation on the other side of the rule being finalized," said Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG.On Tuesday, several top banking and financial industry groups sent a joint letter to the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency asking them to issue a new proposal for their so-called Basel III endgame package to close data-disclosure gaps. The groups accuse the agencies of drawing from "nonpublic" data for their proposals, thus violating standards of the Administrative Procedure Act, or APA."To remedy this violation, the agencies must make available the various types of missing material — along with any and all other evidence and analyses the agencies relied on in proposing the rule — and re-propose the rule," the groups wrote. "To remain consistent with what the agencies themselves have determined to be an 'appropriate' comment period, the agencies should provide for a new 120-day comment period in the re-proposal."Representatives from the Fed and OCC declined to comment on the letter. The FDIC did not respond to an interview request on Tuesday.The letter was co-signed by the Bank Policy Institute, American Bankers Association, Financial Services Forum, Institute of International Bankers, Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. It cites several violations of "basic legal obligations" under the APA, potentially setting the stage for a legal challenge should the proposal be enacted.Boltansky said it is unlikely that the letter will actually compel regulators to issue a new proposal, but he said it could make them think twice about finalizing the rule as is."It is difficult to envision the banking regulators pulling and reproposing, but the letter from industry groups will add even more pressure for the standard to be softened prior to finalization," he said.The letter comes less than a week after BPI, which represents banks with more than $100 billion of assets, launched its "Stop Basel Endgame" advertising campaign, a nationwide push to draw attention to the risks the rules present to the banking sector, the U.S. economy and individual households. The effort includes print and radio ads in Washington, D.C., and other select markets as well as targeted online ad buys."The current Basel proposal is unacceptable, and BPI is committed to ensuring that lawmakers, regulators and the public fully understand how this proposal will affect every person and every business in this country," BPI President and CEO Greg Baer said. "The largest media campaign in the organization's history is underway, and our goal is to force regulators to justify to the public why they are imposing these costs and pushing still more economic activity into the shadow banking system."Banks themselves have gotten in on the effort to undermine recent regulatory proposals, which call for additional risk-weighted capital requirements and new resolution standards for banks between $100 billion and $250 billion of assets. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs released a survey of small-business owners in which 84% of respondents said they were "concerned that the proposal will negatively impact their ability to access capital in an already difficult market."On Monday, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon ripped the proposal during an on-stage appearance at Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, calling it "hugely disappointing."In fiery remarks, Dimon said the proposed risk capital rules would result in U.S. banks facing more stringent regulatory obligations than their international peers, undermining the initial goal of the international standards on bank regulation. "What was the goddamn point of Basel in the first place?" he said.Dimon said the rules would likely drive certain activities — including mortgage lending and financing leveraged lending by nonbanks — out of the banking sector entirely. He argued that if that is the intended outcome the Fed, FDIC and OCC had in mind, they should have said so explicitly, adding that the proposal marks a low point in relations between banks and their regulators.

Republicans hint at procedural challenge to Basel III endgame proposal — Banking trade groups continued their onslaught of criticism of federal regulators' plan to increase capital requirements on banks with at least $100 billion of assets, and seem to have found allies in that criticism in Republican lawmakers on the House Financial Services Committee. Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., chairman of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy, criticized regulators for not releasing an economic analysis of the Basel III endgame proposal, echoing industry complaints. "I suspect that many lawyers are salivating at the arbitrary and capricious nature of this rulemaking," he said. "It was proposed with no meaningful public input or quantitative … cost-benefit analysis." Barr's comments follow a Tuesday letter from several top banking and financial industry groups — including the Bank Policy Institute and Mortgage Bankers Association, whose leaders testified at the House hearing — asking the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to issue a new proposal. The letter accused the agencies of using nonpublic data for the proposal, which violates the standards of the Administrative Procedure Act. At the hearing, Andrew Olmem, a partner at Mayer Brown, outlined part of the rationale that bank groups or Republicans could use to challenge the Basel III endgame proposal under the Administrative Procedure Act. "Just to be clear, these aren't just technical process problems," Olmen said. "These are statutory violations." He said that the Administrative Procedure Act is meant to make sure that agencies have a rulemaking process that allows public engagement, and that an agency can't "decide on its whim to take a particular action." "It has to be reasoned and informed," Olmen said. BankThink: Regulators are overlooking the threat shadow banks pose to the economy | American Banker --It's disappointing how many inaccurate or false statements about regional banks have been put out in the public sphere since the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The reality is that the vast majority of regional banks across the country, including the bank I am proud to lead, are financially sound, managed safely and continue to serve as the financial engine of local economies. But somehow analysts and so-called "experts" continue to try and search for other "risks" facing banks, like the notion that the regional banking sector is carrying too much risk in commercial real estate, holding more than 70% of CRE loans. Or, that the American taxpayer is the one footing the bill when banks take on too much risk and fail. Both of which are just not accurate.Regional banks hold only slightly more than 30% of CRE loans, and it is the banking sector that covers the cost of bank failures through our funding of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. — not the American taxpayer.Inaccurate information here is leading to two troubling things. First, an unwarranted erosion of trust in regional banks. And second, increased banking regulation that will impose new capital requirements on U.S. banks, making lending more challenging in many communities.What isn't changing, however, is the fact that our economy is still thriving and businesses still need access to capital to grow and succeed. So, when business owners lose trust in their local banks or can't borrow because of increased regulations, they increasingly turn to shadow banks (nonbank financial companies that operate with little to no oversight from regulators) and private credit funds. These are the real risk to the American taxpayer.Why is that? Since the subprime lending crisis, banking regulators have directly, through increased risk rating and reserves for loan-loss requirements, and indirectly, through enhanced liquidity and capital requirements, facilitated the explosive growth of a shadow banking in the United States.This dynamic, combined with the low interest rate environment during the last 10-plus years, has enabled the private credit industry to grow from $300 million in 2010 to more than $1.5 trillion today. Yet, the implications of this exponential growth have yet to be recognized.

Capital proposal could lead to a credit crunch, critics testify -- A proposed set of higher risk weights for mortgage-related assets at banks could broadly compound current strains on home affordability and conflict with other policies and rulemaking promoting it, critics testified at a congressional hearing Thursday. The new rules not only increase portfolio lending expenditures for low down payment loans, but aspects like a possible change affecting servicing rights also add costs for lenders and the market at large, said Bob Broeksmit, president and CEO, Mortgage Bankers Association. The rights and associated work of handling loan payments are a key cost for the mortgage industry at large and if depositories further withdraw from investments in them, costs for nonbank lenders already struggling to profit due to higher rates could rise, he said. "The mortgage servicing value is an integral part of how every mortgage is priced, not just mortgages made by these banks," Broeksmit said at a House Financial Services subcommittee hearing. The subcommittee involved is focused on financial institutions and monetary policy. Mortgage servicing rights already have a relatively high risk weighting under current bank capital rules that discourage holding them in amounts above 25% of Tier One common equity. The proposal would lower the cap to 10% of common stock or other assets in that category. Broeksmit also reiterated his past criticisms of moving from a risk-weighting of 50% for most home mortgages outside the income-producing sector, to a proposed step-up of percentages in that category by loan-to-value ratio that's in excess of global Basel III rules. "If these increased capital requirements go into effect, banks will make fewer mortgage loans or they will raise the price," said Broeksmit. He also doubled-down on his previously stated concerns about the fact that the new requirements don't account for the additional protection private mortgage insurance can provide to loans with lower down payments. Others testifying said the capital rules could put a strain on mortgages that have balloon payments due in a higher rate market. "In a time of historic inflation, the fastest increase in interest rates in modern history, and a growing likelihood of the credit crunch, now is not the time to raise capital levels," said Committee Chair Rep. Andy Barr, R.-Ky. "Such action threatens to further constrain credit availability and put already-sensitive sectors such as commercial real estate in further peril." The new capital rules also could be a constraint on lines of credit used both by businesses and consumers, Broeksmit said. "If I understand this voluminous proposal correctly, banks would be required to hold capital on the maximum amount that could be drawn rather than the amount that is outstanding. That could have a really chilling effect on … small business credit and also home equity lines of credit where consumers take that out and use it as they need it," he said. Other speakers and some Democratic members of Congress debated the assertion that the rule would hurt access to financing. "We strongly disagree that new capital requirements will undermine credit availability," said Alexa Philo, senior policy analyst, Americans for Financial Reform, after Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D.-Mass, asked whether the new rules could protect the availability of lending in a downturn. There's a significant body of research that has found that domestic financial institutions with higher reserves provided more financing than those with lower capital levels, Philo said. "Well capitalized, large U.S. banks had higher loan originations and liquidity," she said.

BankThink" There is no need for the FDIC to tinker with its brokered deposits rule | American Banker --The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last March raised fears of a banking crisis and caused regulators to start thinking about solutions. The payments community recognizes that once problems have been identified, regulators need to develop effective solutions to address the root causes and minimize the chances that such failures occur again. Successfully mitigating risks means focusing on the right root causes. What should we do, however, when policymakers, in the context of correcting root causes, begin to propose changes to our system that have nothing to do with the most recent crisis? In 2020, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. proposed and finalized new rules regulating brokered deposits. The Innovative Payments Association applauded the framework because it was a positive, rules-based step toward creating a brokered deposits regime, which recognized recent innovations in the payments industry over the three decades since the brokered deposits rules were first established. During that interval, the FDIC issued guidance on brokered deposits through frequently asked questions that often created more questions than answers for IPA members, so we appreciated a formal rulemaking that eliminated uncertainty for market participants. Yet support for the new rules was not universal, and then-FDIC board member Martin Gruenberg vocally opposed the new rule.The FDIC, under the leadership of now-Chair Gruenberg, and the Federal Reserve Board each released reports related to the failures of Silicon Valley and Signature banks. The FDIC also issued a report focused on deposit insurance. All the reports acknowledged the primary reasons these banks failed were poor management decisions, failure to address concerns by regulators, and a deposit run inspired on social media. None of the above reports implicated brokered deposits as a cause of these failures. In late July, Graham Steele, assistant secretary for financial institutions at the Treasury Department, delivered a speech in which he provided his opinions on what led to the bank failures, as well as observations about what the FDIC could do to mitigate similar problems in the future.Steele said: "Reciprocal and brokered deposits may warrant greater attention now that they are playing an increasingly important role in bank funding structures in light of the recent events." To support this recommendation, Steele cited Gruenberg's December 2020 statements in opposition to the new brokered deposit rules, which were delivered more than two and a half years before the collapse of Silicon Valley and Signature banks. So, it is troubling to see calls for the FDIC to contemplate changes to their own regulations less than three years after they took effect — especially, when, according to the FDIC's own reports, neither brokered deposits nor the payments community had anything to do with the failures which took place earlier this year. Any changes to the current brokered deposit rules based on events that occurred this year are unwarranted.

On eve of sentencing, lawyers for ex-Wells Fargo exec seek probation - Former Wells Fargo executive Carrie Tolstedt does not deserve a prison sentence for her role in obstructing a bank examination, but she should serve three years of probation, her attorneys say. In a court memo filed Thursday — just one day before Tolstedt, the former head of retail banking at the San Francisco-based bank, is scheduled to be sentenced in Los Angeles — her lawyers argued that a noncustodial sentence "would appropriately account for the fact that the conduct underlying the plea is an exception" to Tolstedt's "lifelong history of good character." Three years of probation, including six months of home confinement, would allow Tolstedt, 63, who pleaded guilty earlier this year, "to continue providing critical support to her aging mother and in-laws, friends, mentees, church family and charitable causes," the memo said. Tolstedt "already has endured punishment for her offense," including fines and penalties of more than $21 million, clawbacks totaling $67 million and constant public humiliation, the memo said. "Further punishment in the form of a custodial sentence is not warranted," it said.

No prison for Tolstedt in Wells Fargo scandal, as judge says she was singled out — Carrie Tolstedt, the former retail banking chief at Wells Fargo, was sentenced Friday to three years of probation, including six months of home confinement — a major setback for federal prosecutors who wanted to send a message by putting a high-level big-bank executive in prison.Tolstedt, who is the only Wells executive to face criminal charges in connection with the bank's unauthorized-accounts scandal, pleaded guilty earlier this year to one criminal charge of obstructing a bank examination.Her case has been closely watched as a bellwether for the question of whether prosecutors have the appetite and ability to jail wrongdoers in the upper echelons of big banks. Prosecutors had asked for a 12-month prison sentence, followed by 12 months of probation.Before announcing Tolstedt's sentence, U.S. District Judge Josephine Staton said that she took into account the fact that prosecutors only brought criminal charges against a single individual in connection with the sprawling phony-accounts fiasco.The sentence she imposed was largely in line with what Tolstedt's lawyers requested, as well as with the recommendation of the U.S. Probation Office, which advises federal courts based on the U.S. Sentencing Commission's guidelines. "What would be unacceptable would be to have one defendant bear the weight of this entire scandal," Staton said, adding that the goal of deterrence is better served by holding as many culpable individuals accountable as possible. "I'm not going to speculate as to why that did not occur here," Staton said. "But I do have to keep in mind that the goal of providing just punishment cannot morph into excessive punishment for a single individual in order to send a message."

Texas judge rebukes CFPB over anti-discrimination policy --A federal judge has ruled that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau overstepped its authority by adopting a sweeping anti-discrimination policy last year in a major victory for banks and the trade groups that sued the agency.In a ruling late Friday, Judge J. Campbell Barker of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas, vacated a CFPB policy that directed the agency's examiners to root out discriminatory behavior when conducting routine exams of financial institutions. The CFPB adopted the policy in March 2022 by stating that discrimination in any financial product is an "unfair" practice that can trigger liability under the federal prohibition against "unfair, deceptive or abusive acts or practices," known as UDAAP. The judge ruled that Congress did not give the CFPB broad authority to look for discrimination beyond those areas specified in the statute. The ruling puts a major dent into the CFPB's efforts to apply anti-discrimination principles to non-lending products such as advertising."The CFPB faces a high burden in arguing that Congress conferred a sweeping anti-discrimination authority without defining protected classes or defenses, without using the words 'discrimination' or 'disparate impact,' and while separately giving the agency authority to police 'discrimination' only in specific areas," Judge Barker wrote in a 23-page opinion. The CFPB under Director Rohit Chopra sparked an uproar last year when the agency updated its exam manual to reflect that discrimination is an "unfair" practice and announced the new policy in a press release."We will be expanding our anti-discrimination efforts to combat discriminatory practices across the board in consumer finance," Chopra said last March. In response, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and six business groups including the American Bankers Association and Consumer Bankers Association sued the bureau, arguing that the policy was a significant departure from existing anti-discrimination laws. The judge agreed. "The CFPB's claimed authority to prohibit disparate-impact discrimination is something that Congress rarely authorizes. When it does, Congress authorizes disparate-impact liability only in narrow circumstances, with limits that exist to avoid 'serious constitutional questions,'" Barker wrote. "So one would naturally expect a clear statement for Congress to authorize a version of discrimination liability that even explicit nondiscrimination statutes usually do not cover and that can raise serious constitutional questions."Rob Nichols, president and CEO of the American Bankers Association, said he was pleased with the decision because it made clear that the CFPB "exceeded its statutory authority" by updating its exam manual and announcing "an open-ended and novel power to examine banks for alleged discriminatory conduct.""This authority is nowhere to be found in the agency's mandate from Congress, as the court concluded today," Nichols said in a press release. "We strongly support the fair enforcement of nondiscrimination laws, but the Bureau's extraordinary expansion of its regulatory reach crossed the line."

CFPB's Chopra defends the agency's mortgage rules in high court case - Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director Rohit Chopra defended the agency's actions — particularly its mortgage rules — as the Supreme Court is poised to hear oral arguments in a case that could undermine the bureau's authority and undo more than a decade of rules and guidance. Speaking at an event Monday commemorating the 15th anniversary of the collapse of investment giant Lehman Brothers — an event that sparked the beginning of the 2008 mortgage crisis — Chopra said an unfavorable ruling in the case could have broad implications for financial stability. "Any doubt about the legitimacy of the CFPB could be destabilizing," Chopra said in prepared remarks at a housing conference in Nashville. The case, CFPB v. Community Financial Services Association of America, hinges around whether the bureau's funding structure — in which its operating expenses are paid through the Federal Reserve rather than through Congressional appropriations — violates Article I of the constitution. Oral arguments are slated to be held on Oct. 3, but the legal and regulatory uncertainty will continue until the high court rules on the case sometime next spring. In his speech, Chopra said the CFPB is no stranger to court challenges, but that the case could destabilize housing markets if the bureau is found to be unconstitutional and if its mortgage rules are deemed invalid. "The case involving the CFPB has significant implications for the entire housing finance and financial regulatory system," Chopra said.The CFPB petitioned the Supreme Court to review a decision last year by a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit. The three judges, all appointees of former President Donald Trump, found that the bureau's funding through the Federal Reserve Board violates the Constitution's appropriations clause, which states that "no money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in consequence of appropriations made by law."The Supreme Court case gives Republicans the best shot yet of gutting the agency and tying its funding to appropriations under a novel legal theory that the consumer watchdog is "doubly insulated" from congressional oversight. Still, many experts think the high court under Chief Justice John Roberts is not going to second-guess how Congress funds federal agencies because doing so would invite legal challenges to the Federal Reserve Board and even far-flung agencies such as the Farm Credit Administration that has a similar structure. Moreover, no federal banking regulator is funded through annual appropriations.

FHFA gives more flexibility to credit modernization timeline -- The regulator overseeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has introduced some new wiggle room into their deadline for modernizing credit reporting and scoring.The Federal Housing Finance Agency in announcing the next stage of the project on Monday left open-ended the date for a planned transition that will give lenders the option to use reports from two rather than three companies on loans sold.The FHFA said it now expects that "the implementation date for this bi-merge requirement will occur later than the first quarter 2024, as was initially proposed."The first quarter of 2025 remains the end-date on the timeline, but the FHFA noted in its latest update that deadlines could change in the future, confirming previous statements it's made.It also said it would offer more opportunities for public dialogue as stakeholders debate how fast the initiative should move forward. Some in the industry are urging deliberation to account for the way credit reporting and scoring is interwoven with a highly regulated mortgage process."FHFA's reformulated implementation plan is an acknowledgment of the significant operational complexities and the magnitude of this effort on the housing finance system," said Bob Broeksmit Bob Broeksmit, president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association, in an emailed statement.The Community Home Lenders of America said the additional opportunities for engagement FHFA and Director Sandra Thompson extended were welcome given mortgage industry concerns about the process."CHLA commends Director Thompson for announcing public listening sessions on the transition to updated credit score models and credit report requirements for loans," the CHLA's Scott Olson said in an emailed statement. Olson is CHLA's executive director.

BankThink: Does the FHFA know what it's getting itself into? | American Banker --The Federal Housing Finance Agency is engaging in its "System at 100" review of the Federal Home Loan Bank System. In the course of this review, the agency, it seems, is being forced to come to terms with some of the conflicts that other banking regulators have had to navigate with their regulated institutions for some time. Of course, navigating these conflicts poorly brings the threat of litigation and failing institutions — the same sorts of issues other banking regulators have had to manage for decades — but hey, no pressure. Traditionally, the FHFA has regulated safety and soundness; and it has looked to see that the Federal Home Loan banks properly implemented their affordable housing, community development and liquidity missions. Much of this activity was formulaic. For example, were the Home Loan banks setting aside at least 10% of net income for affordable housing? More recently, the FHFA appears to have adopted a more subjective standard by focusing on whether the banks are "doing enough" to support affordable housing. As a result, the regulation of mission is potentially in conflict with safety and soundness, which runs the risk of imperiling both. The irony is, requiring more for affordable housing can increase costs that make the Federal Home Loan banks' products more expensive than market alternatives. That means less business gets done, safety in the form of retained earnings is diminished, and there is less income generated, which is what funds the affordable housing programs. You thus have the conflict that requiring more to be done for affordable housing may produce less for affordable housing. At the extremes, the whole system could become uncompetitive. The fundamental problem is built into the nature of the regulated entities. The Federal Home Loan banks have more than one regulator, though this may come as a surprise to the FHFA. They also have other stakeholders in the form of members/shareholders and other counterparties and beneficiaries. Ultimately, the Home Loan banks are running businesses that have to offer products and services that customers want at a price they will pay with sufficient volume and profitability to pay for things such as rent and salaries and the like — and enough of a return to shareholders to motivate them to continue investing their capital in the enterprise. Any retail banker who survived the Great Recession has likely seen firsthand the conflict between stakeholders, be they regulators, shareholders or customers. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has a duty to protect the insurance fund, not the bank shareholders. The bank has a duty to preserve value in the institution for its owners — which includes preventing it from failing. The Federal Reserve has a duty to protect the banking system, but that includes peoples' perceptions of it — and thus a bank failure means the Fed has fewer banks on its list of troubled banks. This may make the banking system look better, and not worse in the public eye, and thus the failure may be acceptable. State regulators have their own concerns. In some cases, these interests overlap; in some cases, they don't. But generally speaking, one set of stakeholders generally had little or no understanding of, or care for, the concerns of other stakeholders.

Q2 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO – McBride - In 2021, I pointed out that with the end of the foreclosure moratoriums, combined with the expiration of a large number of forbearance plans, we would see an increase in REOs in late 2022 and into 2023. And there was a slight increase.However, I also argued this would NOT lead to a surge in foreclosures and significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) since lending has been solid and most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.Last week, CoreLogic reported on homeowner equity: CoreLogic: Home Equity Increases From Winter to Spring, Reducing Underwater Properties in Q2

• Only 2% of homeowners with a mortgage were in negative equity as of the second quarter, roughly the same rate recorded over the past two years. The number of underwater U.S. homes peaked at nearly 26% in 2009.
• U.S. homeowners with a mortgage saw year-over-year equity losses of $8,300 in the second quarter of 2023, but quarterly gains added almost $13,900; the average U.S. homeowner now has about $290,000 in equity.

And on mortgage rates, here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q1 2023 (Q2 2023 data will be released in a few weeksThis shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. Currently 23.3% of loans are under 3%, 61.3% are under 4%, and 81.2% are under 5%.With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties. Some simple definitions (for housing):

• Forbearance is the act of refraining from enforcing mortgage debt.
• Delinquency is the failure to make mortgage payments on a timely basis.
• Foreclosure is when the mortgage lender takes possession of the property after the mortgagor failed to make their payments. “In foreclosure” is the process of foreclosure.
• REO (Real Estate Owned) is the amount of real estate owned by lenders.

Here is some data on REOs through Q2 2023:

Mortgage-Rate Buydowns by Homebuilders Are Now All the Rage to Prop Up Sales, Lowering Effective House Prices in a Big Way, but Don’t Get Picked Up by House Price Data by Wolf Richter - Homebuilders don’t have the luxury of outwaiting the market, or waiting for the Fed to slash rates, or whatever, they must build and sell homes, that’s their business, no matter what the conditions in the market. And the market is struggling with 7%-plus 30-year fixed mortgage rates and sky-high prices, after a ridiculous free-money spike during the pandemic. Sales of existing homes have plunged by about 25% from the same period in 2018 and 2019, and by about 32% from the same period in 2021, because buyers have pulled back, and the people with 3% mortgages have left the housing market altogether, not putting their homes on the market and not buying homes either, not even looking at homes. That plunge in sales might be OK with potential home sellers, thinking that this too shall pass, but it’s not OK with homebuilders, and they’ve been adjusting to this market by cutting prices, building at lower price points, buying down mortgage rates, and offering incentives, such as free upgrades. The latter two – buying down mortgage rates and piling on incentives – don’t show up in the prices of the homes they sell. So the pricing data that we have from the Census Bureau about sales of new single-family houses do not include the costs of mortgage-rate buydowns and incentives. With mortgage rate buydowns, the homebuilder subsidizes the mortgage payment. The duration of the buydown can be for a few years, which effectively turns it into a teaser rate that can cause problems when the rate jumps to normal. Or the rate-buydown can be for the entire term of the mortgage (“permanent”). The big homebuilders have mortgage-lender subsidiaries that originate the mortgage for their customers and then sell the mortgage to Government Sponsored Enterprises, such as Fannie Mae, which will securitize the mortgages into MBS. For example, the mortgage-lender subsidiary of D.R. Horton is DHI Mortgage Company. Having their own mortgage lender makes rate buydowns a lot simpler for homebuilders. This is similar to the “captive” auto lenders, such as Ford Credit offering 0% 36-month financing for F-150 XLTs at the moment. The costs of the mortgage-rate buy-downs can be big, because the home prices are big, and buydowns effectively lower the sales price of the home. But the costs of buydowns don’t show up in the national median price of new houses sold. The numbers only show the contract prices. July’s median price (green) and the three-month-moving average of the median price (red) of signed contracts dropped by roughly 12% from the peak in late 2022, according to Census Bureau data. Now figure in the cost of rate buydowns, and the prices would have dropped a lot lower:

Housing September 11th Weekly Update: Inventory increased 0.1% Week-over-week; Down 6.9% Year-over-year -- Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.1% week-over-week. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of September 8th, inventory was at 509.2 thousand (7-day average), compared to 508.8 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is up 3.7%. And inventory is up 25.6% from the seasonal bottom 21 weeks ago. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels. Inventory was down 6.9% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was down 7.9%), and down 47.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 46.2%). It appears same week inventory will be below 2022 levels for the remainder of the year. It is possible that inventory might be close to 2020 levels (dark blue line) by the end of the year. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

CoreLogic: US Annual Home Price Growth Rate Increased in July - Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for July. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for June. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: Annual US Home Price Growth Rebounds in July, CoreLogic Reports
• U.S. home price gains moved up to 2.5% year over year in July, marking the 138th consecutive month of annual growth.
• Eleven states saw home price declines on an annual basis in July, ranging from -5.7% in Idaho to -0.3% in California.
• The median sales price for a U.S. single-family home was $375,000 in July, led by California ($700,000), the District of Columbia ($670,000) and Massachusetts ($590,000).
U.S. home price gains rebounded year over year in July, increasing to 2.5% and following two months of 1.6% annual gains. The annual reacceleration reflects six consecutive monthly gains, which drove prices about 5% higher compared to the February bottom. The 11 states that saw home price declines were all in the West, but since many of those markets continue to struggle with inventory shortages, that trend may be short-lived, and recent buyer competition will cause prices to heat up again. CoreLogic projects that all states that saw year-over-year losses in July will begin posting gains by October of this year. “Annual home price growth regained momentum in July, which mostly reflects strong appreciation from earlier this year,” said Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “That said, high mortgage rates have slowed additional price surges, with monthly increases returning to regular seasonal averages. In other words, home prices are still growing but are in line with historic seasonal expectations.” This index was up 1.6% YoY in June.

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased in August - From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Drops 6.5% in August - The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, declined 6.5% in August to 178.0 (2000=100) from the revised July reading of 190.3. Over the month, the commercial component of the DMI fell 1.6%, while the institutional component fell 14.8%.“Overall activity remains above historical norms, but weaker market fundamentals continue to undermine planning growth,” said Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for Dodge Construction Network. “It’s likely that the full year of tightening lending standards and high interest rates has begun to affect institutional planning, which has otherwise been resistant to these market headwinds. Also, planning in the sector continues to revert from the strong spike in activity back in May. As we move into the final four months of 2023, both commercial and institutional planning will continue to be constrained.”August saw a deceleration in education, healthcare and amusement planning activity, fueling the sizable decline in the institutional sector. Meanwhile, stronger hotel planning offset weaker office activity, causing a milder regression in the commercial segment over August. Year over year, the DMI remained 4% higher than in August 2022. The commercial and institutional components were up 3% and 7%, respectively....The DMI is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 178.0 in August, down from 190.3 the previous month.
According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggests some slowdown towards the end of 2023 and in 2024. Commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 0.2% Year-over-year --From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 2 September: Following seasonal patterns, U.S. hotel performance showed mixed results from the previous week but positive comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 2 September. ...
27 August through 2 September 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2022):
• Occupancy: 62.7% (+0.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$150.52 (+1.8%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$94.38 (+2.0%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Retail Sales Increased 0.6% in August -On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.6% from July to August (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.5 percent from August 2022.
From the Census Bureau report:Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $697.6 billion, up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 2.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above August 2022. ... The June 2023 to July 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent to up 0.5 percent. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.2% in August. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 3.8% on a YoY basis. The increase in sales in August was well above expectations, however, sales in June and July were revised down.

Our Drunken Sailors Splurged at Stores & Auto Dealers amid Lower Prices of Durable Goods, Partied at Eating & Drinking Places, and Paid an Arm and a Leg at Gas Stations by Wolf Richter -They spent a record amount more at bars & restaurants than at food & beverage stores, which tells us something about our drunken sailors.We’ve long expected that consumers would shift their spending from goods that retailers sell, after the drunken binge during the pandemic, to services that retailers don’t sell, and they did.But our drunken sailors just cannot give up on shopping, and retail sales have continued to surge despite the shift to services, and retail sales surged again in August, including at auto dealers, at restaurants, at food and beverage stores, at clothing stores (+0.9%, annualized +11%, oh dearie), and at general merchandise stores, despite a drop in prices of many goods that these retailers sell, including new and used vehicles, the largest category.Total retail sales, including at food services and drinking places, jumped 0.6% in August from July, after the 0.5% jump in June. Compared to a year ago, retail sales rose 2.5%, seasonally adjusted. Not seasonally adjusted, retail sales rose 2.9% year-over-year to $719 billion. The chart shows the three-month moving average to tamp down on the artificial drama of the monthly ups and downs that can obscure the trends..Retailers sell mostly goods, and many goods prices, after spiking in 2020 and 2021, have flattened out or dropped from the peaks, including the biggie, motor vehicles. When holding retail sales against inflation, you cannot hold it against the overall CPI, which is dominated by services, which retailers don’t sell, and in services is where inflation is now raging. You have compare the goods retailers sell the CPIs for those goods.Just for a feel, here are the CPIs for durable goods and nondurable goods that roughly cover what retailers sell.The CPI for durable goods — which dominated by new and used vehicles, furniture, equipment, electronics, etc. — fell by 0.3% in August from July, and fell by 2.0% year-over-year: The CPI for nondurable goods — dominated by gasoline, food, clothing, and supplies — jumped by 1.8% in August from July, and was 2.5% year-over-year: Our drunken sailors love “experiences,” and they are now spending a lot more eating out and drinking out (red in the chart below) than they’re spending at food and beverage stores (green).The gap hit a new record of $8.4 billion in August (three month moving average), which tells you something about our drunken sailors.In 2019, for the first time, Americans spent more eating and drinking out than they spent at food and beverage stores. While this trend briefly reversed during the pandemic, when many restaurants and cafeterias were shut down, it has come back with a vengeance: But sales at gas stations got a boost from big price increases.Sales at gas stations move in lockstep with the price of gasoline. But sales at gas stations account for only 8% of total retail sales. Sales jumped 5.3% in August from July. But year-over-year, sales were still down 10.3%.This chart shows the CPI for gasoline (green, right axis) and sales in billions of dollars at gas stations, including other merchandise that gas stations sell (red, left axis). Clearly, changes in sales move in lockstep with price changes:

BLS: CPI increased 0.6% in August; Core CPI increased 0.3% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for gasoline was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase. Also contributing to the August monthly increase was continued advancement in the shelter index, which rose for the 40th consecutive month. The energy index rose 5.6 percent in August as all the major energy component indexes increased. The food index increased 0.2 percent in August, as it did in July. The index for food at home increased 0.2 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent in August. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in August, following a 0.2-percent increase in July. Indexes which increased in August include rent, owners' equivalent rent, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, and personal care. The indexes for lodging away from home, used cars and trucks, and recreation were among those that decreased over the month. The all items index increased 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending August, a larger increase than the 3.2-percent increase for the 12 months ending in July. The all items less food and energy index rose 4.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 3.6 percent for the 12 months ending August, and the food index increased 4.3 percent over the last year. CPI and core CPI were close to expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Inflation in August - by Menzie Chinn -- Month-on-month CPI headline (core) at (0.1 ppt above) Bloomberg consensus. Month-on-month PPI 0.3 ppts above consensus of 0.4 ppts. Y/Y core CPI continues to decline, while instantaneous core inflation is flat.Figure 1: CPI headline y/y inflation (bold black), core y/y inflation (tan), m/m sticky price (pink), m/m median (red), m/m 16% trimmed (sky blue), and instantaneous (per Eeckhout, T=12, a=4) (green) all at annual rates. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, Atlanta Fed via FRED, and author’s calculations.All the month on month series showed an uptick, even ones excluding energy prices.That being said, it’s useful to consult other measures of what the underlying inflation measures, both CPI and PCE deflator, say. In Figure 2, I show instantaneous (per Eeckhout, T=12, a=4) measures.Figure 2: CPI headline instantaneous inflation (bold black), core CPI inflation (chartreuse), PCE deflator (blue), core PCE deflator (light blue), (per Eeckhout, T=12, a=4), all at annual rates. Source: BLS via FRED, and author’s calculations.The CPI figures are key inputs into the Cleveland Fed PCE nowcasts. With the latest figures, we see have the following instantaneous inflation figures for headline and core PCE.Figure 3: PCE deflator instantaneous inflation (bold blue), and Core PCE deflator inflation (light blue), per Eeckhout, T=12, a=4, at annual rates. August observation is based on Cleveland Fed PCE nowcast. 2% target teal dashed line. Source: BEA via FRED, Cleveland Fed nowcast accessed 9/14/2023, and author’s calculations.If core PCE is what’s most important, the incoming data buttresses the case that trend inflation has come down, but progress toward further decrease in going to be halting.

BLS Reveals Gasoline Role in August Consumer Price Index - The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in a release posted on its website this week, adding that, over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. “The index for gasoline was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase,” the BLS stated in the release. “Also contributing to the August monthly increase was continued advancement in the shelter index, which rose for the 40th consecutive month. The energy index rose 5.6 percent in August as all the major energy component indexes increased,” it added. “The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in August, following a 0.2-percent increase in July,” it continued. In the release, the BLS noted that the all items less food and energy index rose 4.3 percent over the last 12 months. “The energy index decreased 3.6 percent for the 12 months ending August, and the food index increased 4.3 percent over the last year,” the release stated. A Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) blog posted on the White House website this week highlighted that “headline Consumer Price Index inflation was 0.6 percent in August and 3.7 percent over the past year”, adding that “the main factor behind the jump was the August increase in the price of retail gasoline”. “This price went up 10.6 percent over the month, and gasoline contributed 34 basis points of the overall monthly CPI, or a bit more than half of the 0.6 percent rate (over the past year, the gasoline price is down 3.3 percent),” the blog noted.

The Acceleration of Inflation in the Second Half Has Begun, “Disinflation” Honeymoon Terminated - by Wolf Richter -- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped by 0.63% in August from July, the biggest month-to-month increase since June 2022. Annualized, this amounts to a red-hot 7.8%. This jump comes despite the still ongoing ridiculous monthly adjustment to the health insurance CPI that caused it to collapse by 33.6% year-over-year. The September CPI, to be released in October, will be the last month with that adjustment; with the October CPI, to be released in November, it will flip, which will add upward momentum to the CPI readings. CPI, core CPI, and core services CPI have been understated significantly since October last year, when the monthly health insurance adjustment started, one of the biggest data distortions coming out of the pandemic (more in a moment). With this month-to-month spike, the year-over-year CPI rate accelerated to 3.7%, the second year-over-year acceleration since June 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics today (green in the chart below). July had already marked the end of the period of “disinflation” when the year-over-year inflation rate accelerated for the first time since June 2022. The “Core” CPI, which attempts to track underlying inflation by excluding the volatile food and energy products, rose by a still hot 4.3% in August, compared to a year ago (red in the chart). Given the narrower focus of core CPI, and the therefore proportionally bigger weight of health insurance in it, core CPI was even more distorted than overall CPI by the 33.6% collapse of the health insurance CPI. Core CPI, month-to-month, was held down by the collapse of the health insurance CPI, and yet, it still accelerated to 0.28% in August from July. Fuel prices will push CPI up further, even core CPI. Starting with April, the year-over-year plunge in energy prices at the time, particularly gasoline, pushed the overall CPI increases below those of core CPI. But on a month-to-month basis, gasoline prices have been surging all year – they jumped 10.6% in August from July – thereby whittling away at the year-over-year plunge as we went. In August, gasoline CPI was still down by 3.3% from August 2022. Given how the gasoline CPI plunged in late 2022, we know that on a year-over-year basis, gasoline CPI will turn sharply positive later this year. The green line in the chart connects August 2023 and August 2022: Gasoline accounts for about half of the total energy CPI. Note that gasoline, and energy overall, are still negative year-over-year, despite the sharp month-to-month increases. They will flip to positive, and become bigger drivers of CPI inflation over the coming months: Diesel has also been surging this year on a month-to-month basis. The price of diesel over time filters into the prices of consumer products that are shipped by truck and rail, as are nearly all consumer products. Jet fuel has been surging similarly, and that filters into products that are shipped by air, and into services via air fares. These products and services are reflected in core CPI, which is how core CPI reacts indirectly to rising energy costs. The tougher second half has started. We’ve been warning here about this for months while the media was touting the story that inflation was “vanquished” or whatever. We knew CPI would worsen dramatically in the second half for at least three reasons: Energy prices won’t plunge forever, and in fact gasoline prices began surging again. The “base effect,” which pushed down year-over-year CPI in the first half, is finished. The ridiculous “health insurance adjustment” that started with October 2022, will swing the other way, starting with the October CPI, to be released in November. More in a moment.

YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter -McBride - Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned earlier when services less rent of shelter was up 7.6% year-over-year. This has fallen sharply and is now up 3.1% YoY. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through July 2023. Services were up 5.4% YoY as of August 2023, down from 5.7% YoY in July. Services less rent of shelter was up 3.1% YoY in August, down from 3.3% YoY in July. Earlier this year, a key question was: Would services ex-shelter inflation be persistent, or would it follow a similar pattern as goods? This is a topic I discussed in Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part 2.The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions. Durables were at -2.0% YoY as of August 2023, down from -1.4% YoY in July. Commodities less food and energy commodities were up 0.4% YoY in August, down from 0.9% YoY in July.Goods inflation was transitory. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through August) and housing from the PCE report (through July 2023) Shelter was up 7.2% year-over-year in August, down from 7.7% in July. Housing (PCE) was up 7.8% YoY in July, down from 8.0% in June. The BLS noted this morning: "The index for gasoline was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase. Also contributing to the August monthly increase was continued advancement in the shelter index, which rose for the 40th consecutive month."

Industrial Production Increased 0.4% in August -- From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in August, and manufacturing output inched up 0.1 percent. The August reading for manufacturing was held back by a drop of 5 percent in the output of motor vehicles and parts; factory output elsewhere rose 0.6 percent. The index for mining moved up 1.4 percent, and the index for utilities climbed 0.9 percent. At 103.5 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in August was 0.2 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved up to 79.7 percent in August, in line with its long-run (1972–2022) average.. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Capacity utilization at 79.7% is at the average from 1972 to 2022. This was above consensus expectations.. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in August to 103.5. This is above the pre-pandemic level. Industrial production was above consensus expectations, and the previous months were revised up.

Local officials call on Congress to reject larger trucks on highway -- A coalition of local officials from across the country are calling on Congress to oppose proposed legislation that will allow an increase in the length and weight of large trucks traveling on commercial highways. In a letter sent Monday, the Coalition Against Bigger Trucks (CABT) said the measure would impact the current transportation infrastructure in their small communities, warning that rural roads and older bridges are not “built to the same standards as Interstate.” CABT also said that most municipalities can’t “keep up with our current maintenance schedules and replacement costs because of underfunded budgets.” “The impacts of longer or heavier tractor-trailers would only worsen these problems,” CABT said in a statement, noting that bigger trucks on interstate highways would inevitably mean bigger trucks on local roads as well. “Longer and heavier trucks would cause significantly more damage to our transportation infrastructure, costing us billions of dollars that local government budgets simply cannot afford, compromising the very routes that American motorists use every day.”

The UAW bureaucracy is making massive concessions behind autoworkers’ backs -- Statements from the United Auto Workers, the Biden administration and the Big Three auto corporations make clear that a massive sellout is being worked out behind the backs of 150,000 autoworkers in the US whose contracts expire Thursday at 11:59 p.m. EDT. Late Monday afternoon, Automotive News reported that the UAW is making major concessions on workers’ central demands: “Days before it’s threatening to strike the Detroit 3, the UAW has reduced its demand for pay raises over the next four years to the mid-30 percent range, according to people familiar with the offer.” The pro-industry publication noted this “marks a willingness by the union to compromise on one of its top demands.” There is no doubt that the UAW bureaucracy is also planning to betray workers’ demands for the abolition of tiers, an end to layoffs and plant closures, the restoration of fully funded pensions and cost-of-living adjustments (COLA) and the immediate rollover of all temporary part-time (TPT) workers. The latest developments confirm: If these demands are to be won, the rank and file will have to fight for them. In every plant, workers who are prepared to fight for these demands must speak to one another, form rank-and-file committees, and share information and plan common action for when the contract expires. Adopting a “wait and see” approach would be fatal, because the latest backroom concessions show the bureaucrats cannot be trusted. The UAW bureaucracy’s moves toward a sellout agreement have produced a wave of enthusiasm in auto corporation boardrooms. Stellantis’s Senior Vice President for Human Relations Tobin Williams issued a statement Monday morning saying the company is “pleased to report that the Stellantis and UAW subcommittees have reached tentative agreements in a number of important areas, including health and safety” and that “we are on a good path” toward reaching an agreement on economic issues. Williams said he was “proud” of the UAW bargaining team for their “commitment to reaching a fair agreement.” If the companies feel they are on a “good path,” this means the rank and file is being led blindfolded toward disaster. Through the transition to electric vehicles, the auto corporations plan to cut hundreds of thousands of auto jobs in North America, and millions around the world. Entire towns and cities will be devastated, and autoworkers’ children and grandchildren will be deprived of livelihoods. Biden administration Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo also expressed optimism that workers would not strike when the contract expires Thursday night. He appeared on CNN Monday morning and said “it is the belief of the Biden administration” that a strike will be averted and a deal imposed that will “make sure the companies can continue to grow.” He added, “We look forward to them reaching a resolution.” The UAW bureaucracy has kept rank-and-file workers in the dark and plans to continue doing so. An email sent by the WSWS to Jonah Furman, director of the UAW Communications Department, asking for the details of what the union has already conceded and when UAW members would be informed has gone unanswered. While claiming progress with the corporations, on Monday morning UAW President Shawn Fain abruptly cancelled plans to speak at a “national and local bargaining update” rally planned for workers in Kokomo, Indiana on September 13. According to a Monday article in the Free Press, when Fain’s name appeared on a rally leaflet distributed to workers in Kokomo, this “alarmed Detroit auto executives,” who requested Fain remain in Detroit. Fain dutifully complied, with the Free Press noting, “Fain confirmed late Monday morning he is not planning to go to Kokomo” to provide bargaining updates to the membership there.

Auto workers union ready to strike as UAW chief says Detroit automakers' offers are not enough (AP) — With just over 24 hours left before a strike deadline, United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain said Wednesday that offers from the companies aren’t enough and the union is getting ready to strike.In an online address to union members, Fain said General Motors, Ford and Stellantis have raised their initial wage offers, but have rejected some of the union’s other demands.“We do not yet have offers on the table that reflect the sacrifices and contributions our members have made to these companies,” he said. “To win we’re likely going to have to take action. We are preparing to strike these companies in a way they’ve never seen before.”The union is threatening to strike after contracts with companies that haven’t reached an agreement by 11:59 p.m. on Thursday. But the strikes would be targeted to a small number of factories per company. It would be the first time in the union’s 80-plus-year history that it struck all three companies at the same time.Talks continued Wednesday with the companies, but it appeared that both sides are still far apart.Automakers contend that they need to make huge investments to develop and build electric vehicles while still building and engineering internal combustion vehicles. They say an expensive labor agreement could saddle them with costs that would force them to raise prices above their non-union foreign competitors. And they say they have made fair proposals to the union.Questioned Wednesday night after an appearance at the Detroit auto show, a frustrated Ford CEO Jim Farley said if the union strikes Ford, it’s not the company’s fault because it has made four offers and hasn’t gotten a “genuine counteroffer.”

‘This Is Our Defining Moment’: UAW Launches Historic Strikes Against Big Three Automakers -The United Auto Workers union kicked off historic strikes against the Big Three U.S. car manufacturers early Friday morning after the companies failed to meet workers’ demands for adequate pay increases and benefit improvements.The initial wave of strikes hit select Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis facilities, with the union deploying a tactic it has described as a ” stand-up strike.”UAW members at General Motors’ Wentzville Assembly in Missouri, Ford’s Michigan Assembly, and Stellantis’ Toledo Assembly in Ohio were the first to walk off the job on Friday, and additional locals will be called on to strike in the coming days as negotiations continue.Those who remain on the job will be working under an expired collective bargaining agreement, though they still have status quo protections.The labor actions mark the first time the UAW has ever gone on strike against all three major automakers simultaneously.“We’ve been working hard, trying to reach a deal for economic and social justice for our members,” UAW president Shawn Fain said in a speech late Thursday, just ahead of the midnight strike deadline. “We have been firm. We are committed to winning an agreement with the Big Three that reflects the incredible sacrifice and contributions UAW members have made to these companies.”“The money is there, the cause is righteous, the world is watching, and the UAW is ready to stand up,” Fain added. “This is our defining moment.”

California lawmakers vote to repeal travel ban to states with anti-LGBTQ laws | California lawmakers voted Tuesday to lift a law that bans publicly funded travel to states that have enacted laws that discriminate against LGBTQ people, sending the measure to Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom for final approval.The proposed law, Senate Bill 447, would repeal California’s travel prohibition and replace it with an outreach campaign that encourages LGBTQ acceptance and inclusivity in red states, where a majority of anti-LGBTQ bills were passed this year.“What we need is messaging that really goes to the heart of what regular people all across this country want, which is to live in peace,” said California state Sen. Toni Atkins (D), the bill’s primary sponsor and the first openly LGBTQ person to lead the Legislature as Senate president.The bill, also known as the BRIDGE Project, passed the state Senate by a final vote of 31-6 on Tuesday. The state Assembly voted 64-12 to pass the bill Monday. An urgency clause added to the measure means it would take effect immediately if signed into law.Atkins’s bill seeks to repeal a 2016 law prohibiting California from sponsoring travel to states with anti-LGBTQ laws to “avoid supporting or financing discrimination against lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender people.” The original law — Assembly Bill 1887 — was passed in response to North Carolina’s 2016 passage of House Bill 2, a controversial measure that banned transgender people from using public restrooms matching their gender identity. The North Carolina law, which sparked widespread backlash and nearly cost the state billions of dollars in lost business, was partially repealed in 2017 and fully repealed in 2020.

5 former officers charged with federal civil rights violations in Tyre Nichols beating death - — Five former Memphis police officers were charged Tuesday with federal civil rights violations in the beating death of Tyre Nichols as they continue to fight second-degree murder charges in state courts arising from the killing.Tadarrius Bean, Desmond Mills, Demetrius Haley, Emmitt Martin and Justin Smith were indicted in U.S. District Court in Memphis. The four-count indictment charges them with deprivation of rights under the color of law through excessive force and failure to intervene, and through deliberate indifference; conspiracy to witness tampering; and obstruction of justice through witness tampering.The charges come nine months after the violent beating during a Jan. 7 traffic stop near Nichols’ Memphis home, in which they punched, kicked and slugged the 29-year-old with a baton as he yelled for his mother. Nichols died at a hospital three days later. The five former officers, all Black like Nichols, have pleaded not guilty to state charges of second-degree murder and other alleged offenses in the case.“We all heard Mr. Nichols cry out for his mother and say, ‘I’m just trying to go home,’” Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a video statement after the indictment. “Tyre Nichols should be alive today.” U.S. Attorney Kevin Ritz in West Tennessee said at an afternoon news briefing that the state and federal cases are on separate tracks. Ritz declined to predict how quickly they would proceed. Kristen Clarke, who leads the U.S. Department of Justice’s civil rights division, said at the appearance that the five former officers used excessive force, failed to advise medical personnel about Nichols’ injuries and conspired to cover up their misconduct.Caught on police video, the Nichols beating was one in a string of violent encounters between police and Black people that sparked protests and renewed debate about police brutality and police reform in the U.S.

To Avert Looming Childcare Disaster, Murray and Sanders Lead Emergency Funding Bill -- Sens. Patty Murray and Bernie Sanders on Wednesday led a group of lawmakers in introducing legislation that would avert a fast-approaching disaster by approving $16 billion in emergency childcare funding each year for the next half-decade.The bill comes just 17 days before billions of dollars of childcare fundingthat was approved to keep the crucial industry afloat during the coronavirus pandemic is set to expire, potentially forcing tens of thousands of childcare programs across the country to shut down.A recent report by The Century Foundation (TCF) estimated that more than 3 million kids could lose their childcare slots if the funding expires, impacting families, childcare workers, businesses, and the overall U.S. economy.TCF calculated that states could lose nearly $11 billion in economic activity per year and parents across the U.S. could face $9 billion in lost earnings annually."Ask any parent, any provider, or any business in just about any part of this country and they will tell you, 'We have a childcare crisis in America,'" Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) said during a press conference introducing the Child Care Stabilization Act on Wednesday. "And that crisis could soon go from bad to worse as essential relief for the sector expires at the end of this month.""We are here today to sound the alarm and put forward a commonsense solution," Murray added, "before childcare providers might have to close their doors, before kids lose their childcare slots, and before parents could face higher costs—or simply be forced to leave their jobs to take care of their kids."Childcare advocates, progressive lawmakers, and states have beenvocally warning about the looming childcare catastrophe for months, but the divided U.S. Congress has yet to act to shore up the struggling sector—and it's unclear whether the new legislation will be able to muster enough Republican support to pass by September 30.Republicans unanimously opposed the American Rescue Plan, a Covid-19 relief measure that established childcare stabilization funding that kept more than 200,000 childcare providers in business and preserved childcare slots for around 10 million kids across the country.

4 Las Vegas Valley schools cancel classes due to teacher shortage amid lawsuit against union - Four schools in the Las Vegas Valley shut down Tuesday due a lack of educators able to show up for class after a lawsuit was launched against a teachers union. Southwest Career and Technical Academy’s website shows a pop-up message that tells parents to “not send your children to campus today.” “There are an unexpected number of licensed staff/teachers absent from school today and we have made the difficult decision to not have school today,” Principal Donna Levy said. Three additional schools in the area, two elementary and one middle, also closed down Tuesday due to a teacher shortage, according to local outlet Fox 5. “Due to a high number of unexpected teacher absences, the following schools have canceled classes for Tuesday, September 12, 2023,” Clark County School District (CCSD) said in a statement, according to Fox 5. While many areas across the country have experienced teacher shortages, prompting action from governors on how to recruit more educators, the problem at CCSD is more complicated. On Monday, CCSD announced it was filing an emergency motion for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction against the Clark County Education Association (CCEA). CCSD decided to file the lawsuit due to the “escalating nature of the rolling sickouts” and said there was “no indication that they will cease without court intervention and injunctive relief.” “The actions of licensed educators have forced the closure of three CCSD schools and severely disrupted the operations of two additional schools through a targeted and coordinated rolling-sickout strike,” CCSD said in a statement Monday. However, CCEA previously told KTNV Las Vegas it had nothing to do with the absences and “will make its position clear in court.”

White House holds first-ever summit on the ransomware crisis plaguing the nation’s public schools - The White House on Tuesday held its first-ever cybersecurity “summit” on the ransomware attacks plaguing U.S. schools, in which criminal hackers have dumped online sensitive student data, including medical records, psychiatric evaluations and even sexual assault reports. “If we want to safeguard our children’s futures we must protect their personal data,” first lady Jill Biden, who is a teacher, told the gathering. “Every student deserves the opportunity to see a school counselor when they’re struggling and not worry that these conversations will be shared with the world.” At least 48 districts have been hit by ransomware attacks this year — already three more than in all of 2022, according to the cybersecurity firm Emsisoft. All but 10 had data stolen, the firm reported. Typically, Russian-speaking foreign-based gangs steal the data — sometimes including the Social Security numbers and financial data of district staff — before activating network-encrypting malware then threaten to dump it online unless paid in cryptocurrency. “Last school year, schools in Arizona, California, Washington, Massachusetts, West Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Michigan were all victims of major cyber attacks,” the deputy national security advisor for cyber, Anne Neuberger, told the summit. An October 2022 report from the Government Accountability Office, a federal watchdog agency, found that more than 1.2 million students were affected in 2020 alone — with lost learning ranging from three days to three weeks. Nearly one in three U.S. districts had been breached by the end of 2021, according to a survey by the Center for Internet Security, a federally funded nonprofit. “Do not underestimate the ruthlessness of those who would do us harm,” said Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas during the summit, noting that even reports on suicide attempts have been dumped online by criminal extortionists and urging educators to avail themselves of federal resources already available. Education tech experts praised the Biden administration for the consciousness-raising but lamented that limited federal funds currently exist for them to tackle a scourge that cash-strapped school districts have been ill-equipped to defend effectively. Among measures announced at the summit: The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency will step up tailored security assessments for the K-12 sector while technology providers, including Amazon Web Services, Google and Cloudflare, are offering grants and other support.

‘Teacher of the year’ now a convicted felon after stealing for students — A judge sentenced a teacher to two years of probation after he admitted that he stole pandemic education funding. Christopher Olmstead pleaded guilty to felony theft and appeared in Clark County District Court Monday for his sentencing. “Although your motives were pure it appears, you should have known better,” Judge Michael Villani said. Multiple teachers at Legacy Traditional School’s southwest campus were part of a conspiracy to steal nearly $154,000 in COVID-19 relief funding through a website called DonorsChoose in late 2021, according to the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department. Each teacher could receive one grant of up to $954 for one classroom project, the program guideline specified. Olmstead created 21 accounts with names such as Chrissy and Christian to purchase items including 6 Nintendo Switches, an Apple television, and two drones, detectives said. It was revealed in court Wednesday that there was no evidence that Olmstead ordered the items for his own personal benefit. His defense attorney Charles Goodwin said that there are photos of Olmstead using the items with his students. Olmstead had been named Teacher of the Year in 2020. While police identified 50 teachers at the school who would be eligible for the funding, they said that they uncovered more than 169 projects. Principal Victoria Welling approved the fraudulent applications. She pleaded guilty to the gross misdemeanor charge of conspiracy to commit theft last March and received credit for time served which totaled just more than one day. Teacher Andrea Fuentes-Soto also pleaded guilty to felony theft. Judge Ron Israel sentenced her to probation last April. Fuentes-Soto created at least 16 accounts and changed both her first and last name, according to police. Detectives said that they discovered 35 items in her classroom, including kitchenware, a 70-inch television, and an Apple television. An additional 27 items were discovered by police at her home, including iPads, Star Wars, and Power Ranger toys with a value of approximately $3,572. Authorities also say they seized Fuentes-Soto’s phone and uncovered text message conversations with her husband that included questions such as, “Anything else we need the state to buy?”

American Red Cross declares national blood shortage due to low donor turnout and climate disasters like Hurricane Idalia — The American Red Cross is sounding the alarm that the United States’ blood supply has fallen by nearly 25% since early August, to what it describes as “critically low levels.” The organization, which provides about 40% of US blood and blood components, announced on its website Monday that this national blood shortage is potentially threatening the medical care of patients who might have an emergency need for blood or those who depend on lifesaving blood transfusions for conditions such as cancer or sickle cell disease. As donor turnout fell in August, the Red Cross announced that it saw a shortfall of about 30,000 donations last month alone, amid a busy summer travel season and back-to-school activities. In its announcement, the Red Cross also pointed to “back-to-back months of worsening climate-driven disasters” as further straining the blood supply since some blood drives had to be canceled due to extreme weather, for instance. Just a couple of weeks ago, Hurricane Idalia caused more than 700 units of blood and blood platelets to go uncollected in the southeastern US, according to the announcement. Currently, the Red Cross is keeping a close watch on Hurricane Lee and its potential impact on the Northeast region of the country later this week. “For so many patients living with urgent medical care needs, crises don’t stop with natural disasters,” Dr. Pampee Young, chief medical officer for the American Red Cross, said in Monday’s announcement. “In fact, in some instances the stress of a disaster can lead to a medical crisis for some individuals battling sickle cell disease. The need for blood is constant,” Young said. “Every two seconds, someone in the U.S. needs blood—an often-invisible emergency that the rest of the world doesn’t see behind closed hospital doors. Now, that urgency has only heightened.” Overall, the distribution of blood products to hospitals is outpacing the number of blood donations being made, and according to the Red Cross, about 2,500 hospitals and transfusion centers nationwide rely on the nonprofit to collect around 12,500 donations each day to meet patients’ needs.

A Single Gene Variant Protects From Both Alzheimer's And Parkinson's - A colossal study has revealed a variation of a gene involved in an immune response has been secretly giving protection to the billions who carry it from Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease. Known as DR4, the variant, or allele, is part of a family of genes that normally help our immune system pinpoint and destroy foreign invaders, like bacteria and viruses. "In an earlier study, we'd found that carrying the DR4 allele seemed to protect against Parkinson's disease," says psychiatrist and geneticist Emmanual Mignot from Stanford University in the US, the institution that led the study. But Alzheimer's and Parkinson's are distinct conditions with different pathological biomarkers in the brain – Lewy bodies for Parkinson's, and abnormal tangles of a protein called tau in Alzheimer's. Discovering DR4 as a common factor was astounding. "That this protective factor for Parkinson's wound up having the same protective effect with respect to Alzheimer's floored me," Mignot says. "The night after we found that out, I couldn't sleep." The scientists gathered medical and genetic data from dozens of databanks around the world, giving them a diverse dataset that included participants from Europe, Asia, Latin America, and African America. Comparing 176,000 patients with Parkinson's or Alzheimer's disease with just under 2 million control cases revealed those who carried the DR4 variant were significantly less likely to have either disease – more than 10 percent less likely, in fact. The researchers then studied data from 7,000 autopsied brains affected by Alzheimer's, finding those with the DR4 gene mutation had a later onset of symptoms and fewer neurofibrillary tangles, which correlate with the severity of the condition.

Decongestant used by Sudafed, Benadryl is not effective, FDA advisers find - A Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory committee unanimously voted Tuesday that current scientific data does not support the use of the active ingredient in over-the-counter products like Sudafed and Benadryl for decongestion. The FDA’s Nonprescription Drugs Advisory Committee was asked to vote on the question of whether evidence supported the oral use of phenylephrine as an effective nasal decongestant. As an over-the-counter medication, phenylephrine is sold in products like Sudafed PE Sinus Congestion as well as Benadryl Allergy Plus Congestion ULTRATABS. It can also be found in liquid or strip versions and is recognized as “safe and effective” under the FDA’s standards. Among the advisory committee voting members present during Tuesday’s meeting, all 16 voted “no” on the question of its efficacy. The impact that the possible removal of phenylephrine products would have on the market was discussed at length during the meeting. Committee member Maryann Amirshahi said during the meeting that if phenylephrine products are removed from the market, it should be emphasized that it was “more of an efficacy issue as opposed to a safety issue.”

FDA approves updated mRNA COVID vaccines --The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) today announced that it has approved the emergency use of updated COVID-19 vaccines that more closely target circulating strains, setting the stage for tomorrow's discussion on recommendations by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) vaccine advisory group.The FDA's approval today covers the two mRNA vaccines, one from Moderna and the other from Pfizer-BioNTech.The agency is still reviewing an updated vaccine from Novavax, made with a more traditional cell-based process. That vaccine includes the company's proprietary matrix M adjuvant to boost the body's immune response.In a statement, Novavax said doses of its vaccine arrived in the United States today and will be ready for release as soon as the FDA grants approval. The company added that it will present the latest data on the vaccine at tomorrow's meeting of the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP).In the middle of June, after recommendations from its vaccine advisers, the FDA asked vaccine makers to develop single-strain vaccines that target the XBB.1.5 Omicron variant. Since then, proportions of newer Omicron variants such as EG.5 have been increasing, alongside a slow rise—from very low levels—in COVID activity that has continued for the past 9 weeks.In the middle of August, all three vaccine makers said their preliminary findings suggest the updated vaccines prompted a rise in neutralizing antibodies against newer variants such as EG.5, FL.1.5.1, and XBB.1.16.6At about the same time, variant trackers identified the highly mutated BA.2.86 variant, which raised concerns about how well the new vaccines would neutralize the virus. The United Kingdom in late August announced that it was speeding up the rollout of the newer vaccines, a precaution as scientists size up the threat from BA.2.86.Early lab experiments, however, suggest the newer virus may be less immune-evasive than originally feared. And a few days ago, Moderna said its clinical work suggests the updated vaccine shows a strong response against BA.2.86, with Pfizer announcing similar findings from preclinical findings.Today's FDA approval said anyone age 5 and older, regardless of previous vaccination, are eligible for one dose of the updated mRNA vaccine, with more fine-tuned recommendations for kids ages 6 months through 4 years old, depending on previous immunization.

FDA has Gone Rogue - by Robert W Malone MD, MS - Many of us knew this day would come, and now here it is. As of Monday, September 11, 2023, the FDA has provided “Emergency Use Authorization” for the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine boosters. But there is no public health emergency at this time. And the “boosters” being “Emergency Use Authorized” are designed to provide protection against the Omicron variant called “Kraken”. Which is on its way to becoming extinct, outcompeted by newer variants like Eris which have evolved even further to escape the antibody pressure elicited by the globally deployed leaky “vaccines”.Prior versions of which boosters, by the way, have been shown to have been adulterated with high levels of plasmid DNA incorporating SV40 virus promoter/enhancer sequences. Which adulteration the FDA continues to ignore.“Vaccination remains critical to public health and continued protection against serious consequences of COVID-19, including hospitalization and death,” said Peter Marks, M.D., Ph.D., director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research. “The public can be assured that these updated vaccines have met the agency’s rigorous scientific standards for safety, effectiveness, and manufacturing quality. We very much encourage those who are eligible to consider getting vaccinated.”But Biden, under congressional pressure, had decided and certified that the COVID crisis “national emergency” ended May 11, 2023, right? Sort of.The administrative class at the FDA decided that they have the authority to interpret this in their own special way. Despite clear Congressional intent and the Presidential decision, the FDA responded with a series of delaying tactics. These are summarized in an “action notice” in the Federal Register titled “Guidance Documents Related to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), A Notice by the Food and Drug Administration on 03/13/2023”. At the time of the Presidential declaration, the FDA had 72 COVID-19-related guidance documents currently in effect. These are not law, they are administrative guidance, but often function and are enforced as if they are law. If you are seeking an example of administrative state overreach, this would be a good place to start. So, whats an agency to do? Issue an action notice in the federal register laying out new rules, functionally a guidance on guidances.So here are the new rules, as unilaterally determined by FDA administrators. They took those 72 COVID-19 related guidances and divided them into four tables, and determined what they would mandate for the guidances in each table.

• Table 1 were those that would expire when the public health emergency (PHE) would expire.
• Table 2 were those that would be revised to continue in effect for 180 days after the PHE declaration expires, then will no longer be in effect on November 07, 2023 (Tuesday).
• Table 3 were those to be revised to continue in effect for 180 days after the PHE declaration expires, during which time FDA plans to further revise these guidances <and then ??>.
• Table 4 lists COVID-19-related guidance documents whose intended duration is not tied to the COVID-19 PHE and that will remain in effect when the COVID-19 PHE declaration expires. In other words, by administrative fiat, those guidances listed in Table 4 will remain in place for as long as the FDA administrators wish them to remain in place.

And at the top of Table 3 (the ones that they will revise as they see fit and continue as long as they think necessary) is the following:Did they actually revise FDA-2020-D-1137 between then and now? Did they do the work that they said they would do? In short, no. The guidance remains unrevised since March 2022. What congressional law and language determines when FDA can issue EUAs? From the FDA’s own website regarding Emergency Use Authorization-Under section 564 of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (FD&C Act), when the Secretary of HHS declares that an emergency use authorization is appropriate, FDA may authorize unapproved medical products or unapproved uses of approved medical products to be used in an emergency to diagnose, treat, or prevent serious or life-threatening diseases or conditions caused by CBRN threat agents when certain criteria are met, including there are no adequate, approved, and available alternatives.So, basically, the FDA administrative bureaucracy self-determined that they could continue to bypass their normal (already lax) procedures for evaluating vaccine purity (including lack of adulteration), potency, safety and efficacy pretty much for as long as their hearts desire, at least until November 07, 2023. And that is the administrative basis used to enable the September 11, 2023 “Emergency Use Authorization” for the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine boosters. Will that authorization sunset on November 07, 2023? I very much doubt it.

CDC recommends broad use of updated COVID shots - Almost all Americans will be able to receive an updated COVID-19 vaccine as early as Wednesday after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) endorsed the shot for everyone older than 6 months. The recommendation from CDC Director Mandy Cohen means updated COVID-19 shots will hit the market just as the U.S. approaches the fall and winter respiratory virus season. They arrive along with new treatments to protect infants and older adults from respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). “Receiving an updated COVID-19 vaccine can restore protection and provide enhanced protection against the variants currently responsible for most infections and hospitalizations in the United States,” the agency said in a statement. Major pharmacy chains CVS and Walgreens said the shot will be available within days to people who want it. The new shots from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech are a single dose for people 5 years and older, and multiple smaller doses for children ages 6 months to 4 years old: two doses of Moderna or three doses of Pfizer-BioNTech. An application for an updated non-mRNA vaccine from Novavax is still pending with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). A Novavax official told the CDC advisers on Tuesday that doses of the vaccine are “pre-positioned” and awaiting FDA action. “We have more tools than ever to prevent the worst outcomes from COVID-19,” Cohen said in a statement. Last season, people who received a COVID-19 vaccine saw greater protection against illness and hospitalization than those who did not receive the booster, the CDC said. Still, only about 20 percent of adults, and 17 percent of the entire population, received one. Last year’s bivalent booster, which contained a strain of the omicron variant and a strain of the original variant, is no longer recommended and doesn’t offer protection against the currently circulating strains.

Florida advises against new Covid-19 shot as hospitalizations increase - Florida Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo advised most residents not to get the updated Covid-19 vaccine that was approved by the FDA and CDC this week.The direction from Ladapo contradicts recommendations from the FDA and CDC, which encourage anyone 6 months and older to get the vaccine.At the same time, a new report shows Florida is leading the country with new Covid-19 hospitalizations. Data available on theCDC website showed 37 counties are now in the medium range as of September 2, which is the latest data available.While Florida Hospital Association president Mary Mayhew did not comment on whether or not residents should get the shot, she did provide context on the rising cases in Florida. Mayhew said Monday that the numbers are still low.“During the Delta surge, we had 17,000 hospitalizations. We have 1,800 today in the entire state of Florida,” the FHA president said. The advisory from the surgeon general comes as updated vaccines become available to Americans. The shots are expected to be protective against Covid-19′s worst consequences rather than mild infection. It’s part of a shift to treat fall updates of the Covid-19 vaccine like the yearly flu shot.

Facebook's policy on anti-COVID vaccine content didn't stop users from finding it, study suggests - Facebook's removal of some COVID-19 vaccine misinformation didn't drive down user engagement with the content—likely because the social media platform's architecture allowed users to view and interact with it and let groups boost each other's content or repost deleted posts,suggests an analysis led by George Washington University researchers.For the study, published today in Science Advances, researchers used the CrowdTangle content-monitoring tool to search for COVID-19 vaccine-related Facebook postings. They compared data from more than 200,000 posts to pages and groups created from November 15, 2019, to November 15, 2020, with posts to the same pages and groups from November 16, 2020, to February 28, 2022.On November 18, 2020, Facebook announced its removal of "Stop Mandatory Vaccination," one of its largest anti-vaccine fan pages. On December 3, it announced that false claims about COVID-19 vaccines and accounts that repeatedly posted them would be deleted. Five days later, it broadened its policy to include vaccine misinformation in general. The researchers said the study is the first to scientifically evaluate the effects of Facebook's policy. By February 28, 2022, Facebook had removed 49 pages (76% of them containing anti-vaccine content) and 31 groups (90% anti-vaccine). Anti-vaccine pages and groups were 2.1 times more likely than their pro-vaccine counterparts to have been removed. Five anti-vaccine groups (5%) changed their settings from public to private.Posts on both anti-vaccine and pro-vaccine pages declined. Anti-vaccine post volumes fell 1.5 times more than pro-vaccine volumes (relative risk [RR], 0.68), and posts on anti-vaccine group pages also fell. Anti-vaccine group post volumes declined 3.6 times more than their pro-vaccine counterparts. But there were no significant changes in engagement with anti-vaccine page content (RR, 0.73), and the volume of false claims rose. Engagement with anti-vaccine groups was 33% higher than expected on the basis of prepolicy trends (RR, 1.33), but this was not significant relative to pro-vaccine group trends (RR, 1.22).

CDC notes US COVID-19 hospital cases up slightly -- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today noted that COVID-19 hospitalizations are up 8.7% and deaths up 4.5% in the most recent reporting week, though numbers are still quite low.Roughly 18,900 Americans were hospitalized for the virus in the first week of September, the CDC said, a number not seen since mid-March.Parts of Montana, Texas, Alabama, and Florida have seen significant increases in virus activity, but the CDC notes that fewer jurisdictions are reporting data in regular intervals.In the United States, Omicron lineage EG.5 represented 24.5% of cases, and FL.1.5.1 represented 13.1% of cases. Variants XBB.1.16 and XBB.1.16.6 accounted for 10% each of all cases tracked in the first 2 weeks of September.Also today, the World Health Organization (WHO) published its weekly epidemiologic update on COVID-19, noting that globally cases have increased by 38% but deaths have decreased by 50% over the past 28 days. Case counts rose by 39% in Europe, 52% in the Western Pacific, and 113% in the Eastern Mediterranean. Cases decreased in two WHO regions: Africa (-76%), and the Southeast Asia (-48%).Two WHO regions reported increases in deaths, the Eastern Mediterranean and Western Pacific. Korea, Italy, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Singapore reported the biggest spikes in cases, with Korea and Italy also reporting the biggest jump in new 28-day deaths.Similar to US data, the WHO said EG.5 is now the most prevalent variant of interest, accounting for 26.1% of sequences in epidemiological week 32 (August 7 to 13). The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control's (ECDC's) update on COVID-19 in Europe notes that, of 19 countries reporting data, 7 noted an increase in cases. And, of 9 and 14 countries reporting COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths, respectively, 1 country reported an increase in hospital admissions and 1 reported an increase in deaths.XBB.1.5 continues to be the predominant variant in Europe. In related news, the European Medicines Agency has approved Moderna's new Omicron XBB.1.5 vaccine for use in Europe. It had approved Pfizer's versionin late August."Among 16 countries that reported age-specific data on cases positive for COVID-19, 12 observed increases in case rates among people aged 65 years and above," the ECDC wrote. "As this age group has the highest risk of severe disease, these figures highlight the importance of continuing to monitor disease and implement protective measures in older age groups."

Mississippi’s COVID-19 Hospitalizations Spike 145% - Mississippi’s COVID-19 hospitalizations increased 145% amid a late summer spike in cases between July 29 and Aug. 29, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control shows. But statewide masking guidelines will not change, nor will the State institute any other restrictions to prevent further spread, Gov. Tate Reeves says. The state reported 184 new admissions for COVID-19 the week of Aug. 29, up from 75 new hospital admissions a month earlier on July 29. September’s numbers are not available yet. As experts nationwide suggested people, especially those who are immunocompromised, wear face masks amid the rise of new COVID-19 variants, the Republican governor issued a press release rejecting any new steps to combat the virus. In one Aug. 25 article citing expert opinions, CBS News’ Sara Moniuszko posed the question, “Is masking coming back?” “The simple answer to the question being posed by ‘experts’ is: no. We will not return to widespread masking or COVID rules,” Reeves said in an Aug. 28 press release. The statement comes at a time when baseless conspiracy theories have spread online about the return of pandemic restrictions and lockdowns. “If you want to take extraordinary measures to protect yourself from getting sick, God bless you,” the governor wrote. “That is your right and you should do what you think is best. Maybe you’re the smartest of all of us. But we are never going back to 2020.”

Prior COVID-19 infection, vaccination, can limit contagiousness -A new study in Nature Communications suggests that both prior infection with COVID-19 and prior vaccination with mRNA vaccines can limit the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2.Immunity from prior infections is stronger at limiting contagiousness, but fades quickly, compared to immunity from vaccines, which was longer-lasting. And SARS-CoV-2 infections, of course, come with much higher risks of poor outcomes than do COVID vaccines.The study was based on attack rates seen among 50,973 index cases and 111,674 declared contacts of infected people in Geneva from June 2020 to March 2022. The study period covered four variants of concerns (VOCs), and was based on case contacts' COVID-19 test results and not biological samples.The mean number of declared contacts per infected person was 2.2, with a net decrease during the Omicron period (1.6 mean contacts per index case). Overall, children and younger adults were overrepresented as index cases in the study, the authors said."Index cases were at 73% adults between 18 and 64 years, 22% children, and 4.6% adults older than 65 years. The proportion of children for the index cases tripled between the EU1 wave (11%) and the Delta wave (38%)," the authors wrote.Ninety-four percent of index cases reported symptoms, including 58% with a cough.Household contacts made up 63% of contacts identified in the study, and this percentage increased up to 77% during the Omicron wave.Only 2% of index cases were vaccinated during the Alpha wave, whereas 52% were vaccinated during the Omicron wave, of which 25% had their last dose more than 6 months before the infection.Among 111,674 contacts, 46,417 took a COVID-19 test during the 10 days following the date of the last contact with the index case, and 21,435 had a positive test result, a raw 19.2% secondary attack rate (SAR).The raw SAR was from 16% to 27% for each of the four VOCs, from 16.4% during the initial wild-type wave, 20.9% during the Alpha wave, 16.7% during the Delta wave, and 26.3% during the Omicron wave. Previous COVID-19 infection in the index case reduced the SAR by 10.5 adjusted percent points (pp) (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.0 to 14.0) during the wild-type wave, 8.6 pp during the Alpha wave (4.3 to 12.8), 11.3 pp during the Delta wave (8.6 to 14.0), and 4.3 pp during Omicron (1.3 to 7.3).

SARS-CoV-2 infections may trigger islet autoantibodies in kids at risk for diabetes Children with a high genetic risk of developing type 1 diabetes see an increase in islet autoantibodies, which develop against pancreatic β-cell proteins, shortly after infection with SARS-CoV-2, illustrating a temporal relationship between COVID-19 and islet autoantibodies not seen with influenza. The study was published in JAMA.The findings came from the European Primary Oral Insulin Trial, which enrolled 1,050 infants (517 girls) aged 4 to 7 months with more than a 10% genetically defined risk of type 1 diabetes from February 2018 to March 2021. Follow-up continued through September 2022. During follow-up, children submitted blood samples for SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing.Of 885 children who agreed to participate in the study, SARS-CoV-2 antibodies developed in 170 children at a median age of 18 months, and islet autoantibodies developed in 60 children. Six of the 60 children tested positive for islet autoantibodies and SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at the same time, and six tested positive for islet antibodies after having tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies 2 to 6 months earlier.Overall, the incidence rate of islet autoantibodies was 3.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2 to 5.1) per 100 person-years in children without SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and 7.8 (95% CI, 5.3 to 19.0) per 100 person-years in children with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.Children younger than 18 months had an increased hazard ratio of developing islet autoantibodies after SARS-CoV-2 antibody development (hazard ratio [HR], 5.3; 95% CI, 1.5 to 18.3).The study builds on the understanding of type 1 diabetes and COVID-19, the researchers said. Many clinicians reported a significant increase in type 1 pediatric cases early in the pandemic, and islet autoantibodies have previously been linked to viral infections. Children who develop multiple islet autoantibodies usually progress to clinical type 1 diabetes within 10 years, but this study didn't detect a relationship between islet autoantibodies and H1N1 antibodies.

Reservoirs of SARS-CoV-2 and their potential role in Long COVID --A review article in Nature Immunology summarizes what is currently known about the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 virus in the body after COVID-19. Theorized as a possible cause of Long COVID, the ongoing presence of the virus could trigger immune responses that account for most or all the sequelae of COVID-19. For the virus to persist, a “reservoir”—that is, a particular tissue that is host to either viral genetic material or ongoing viral replication—must exist. The authors noted that viruses similar to SARS-CoV-2 persist in the body after infection and cause chronic illnesses as a direct result. The genetic material of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is RNA, and in particular it is single-stranded RNA or “ssRNA” for short. Several other ssRNA viruses—including Zika virus, Ebola virus, enteroviruses, and the measles virus—are known to persist in tissues for months to years after initial infection. The persistence of these other ssRNA viruses often results in chronic disorders including heart, eye, neurological, and musculoskeletal syndromes. Therefore it is a reasonable hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 exhibits similar behavior that is responsible for at least a significant proportion of cases of Long COVID. It should also be noted that reservoirs of these viruses have been associated with viral mutations while the virus replicates for long periods of time in the body as well as ongoing transmission of the virus—often silent given that individuals are often months past acute infection. The purpose of the review article was to assess what science currently has discovered about reservoirs of SARS-CoV-2 and their association with Long COVID. Also, the authors reviewed the possible biological mechanisms by which viral reservoirs might result in the broad array of sequelae seen in Long COVID patients. The answer is that dozens of tissues are documented reservoirs of SARS-CoV-2 for periods up to 676 days (nearly two years). Viral RNA and associated proteins have been found in brain, nerve, gastrointestinal tract, lymph node, lung and breast tissue, among others. Viral RNA and proteins, including the spike protein, have been found circulating in blood plasma for over a year post-infection. The reason why so many tissues serve as reservoir of the virus is still a subject for future study. One leading hypothesis is that most human tissues are dense with Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors, and ACE2 receptors are the primary way the SARS-CoV-2 virus binds cells in order to enter them. Notably, ACE2 receptors are particularly abundant in the tissues of the gastrointestinal tract, brain, lung, heart and blood vessels.>

1 in 4 COVID survivors had impaired lung function 1 year on, study shows - A quarter of COVID-19 survivors had impaired lung function 1 year after infection, and older patients, those with more than three chronic conditions, and those with severe cases improved slower than other patients over time, a Dutch studypublished yesterday in PLOS One reveals.A team led by University of Amsterdam researchers evaluateddiffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO), spirometryresults, and health-related quality of life (HRQL) in 301 COVID-19 survivors who underwent at least one lung-function test from May 2020 to December 2021. Median patient age was 51 years, and 56% were men.The study involved 349 patients total.Of the 301 participants who had lung-function testing, 30% had mild, 44% had moderate, and 26% had severe or critical COVID-19. Older age, higher body mass index, more chronic conditions, and the presence of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and chronic lung diseases other than asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were more common among patients who had severe infections than among those with mild cases.A total of 47% of patients were hospitalized. On admission, 86 hospitalized patients received low-flow oxygen, 15 required high-flow oxygen, and 29 needed invasive mechanical ventilation. Thirty-nine patients were admitted to the intensive care unit and stayed for a median of 6 days. Overall, 70 participants received the corticosteroid dexamethasone, and 10% were given the anti-inflammatory drug tociluzimab.At 1 month of follow-up, a below-normal DLCO was seen in 26% participants with mild, 23% with moderate,and 74% with severe COVID-19. In the mildly ill group, no statistically significant improvement in single-breath diffusion capacity occurred up to 1 year after symptom onset. Among patients with moderate disease, improvement in spirometry results was seen from 1 to 6 months but not from 6 months to 1 year. DLCO improved over 1 year in patients with moderate and severeinfections, which the researchers said suggests that COVID-related lung damage can be reversed to some degree over time. At 1 year of follow-up, 25% of the 349 hospitalized or non-hospitalized participants had impaired lung function, including 11%, 22%, and 48% of those with mild, moderate, or severe/critical COVID-19, respectively.After adjustment for age and sex, the researchers found that older age, more than three chronic conditions, and severe or critical illness were tied to slower improvement of lung function over time. HRQL improved over time and was similar to those without impaired lung function at 1 year."The prevalence of impaired pulmonary function after twelve months of follow-up, was still significant among those with initially moderate or severe/critical COVID-19," the study authors wrote. "Pulmonary function increased over time in most of the severity groups. These data imply that guidelines regarding revalidation after COVID-19 should target individuals with moderate and severe/critical disease severities."

California healthcare industry had highest COVID-19 death rate of all occupations early in pandemic --- In the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, Californians who worked in healthcare, "other services," manufacturing, transportation, and retail trade industries had higher death rates than the professional, scientific, and technical industries, which had some of the lowest rates, finds a study published today in the Annals of Epidemiology. California Department of Public Health researchers used death certificates to identify COVID-19 deaths that occurred from January 2020 to May 2022 among 17.7 million residents ages 18 to 64 years. They also used the Current Population Survey to estimate the number of working-age adults at risk of COVID-19 death.Pandemic waves were categorized as wave 1 (March to June 2020), wave 2 (July to November 2020), wave 3 (Epsilon and Alpha variants, December 2020 to May 2021), wave 4 (Delta, June 2021 to January 2022), and wave 5 (Omicron, February to May 2022).COVID-19 made up 12.2% of all 176,845 working-age deaths, with the highest death count (8,759) in wave 3 (Epsilon and Alpha variants). Healthcare (wave 1 mortality rate ratio [MRR], 2.49), other services (wave 4 MRR_,2.89), manufacturing (wave 2 MRR_, 2.01), transportation (wave 4 MRR_, 2.64), and retail trade industries (wave 5 MRR_, 1.87) had higher death rates than the professional, scientific, and technical industries, which had some of the lowest mortality rates. Healthcare saw the highest relative death rate earlier in the pandemic, which declined over time, while other services, utilities, and accommodation and food services saw substantial increases in MRR in later waves. Workers in certain industries accounted for a greater percentage of COVID-19 deaths than expected given their share of the workforce, including men (74% of COVID-19 deaths, 54% of workforce), workers aged 50 to 64 years (70%, 27%), those without a college degree (64%, 33%), foreign-born workers (52%, 33%), and Latinos (61%, 40%).

$4.5 million USDA grant funds SARS-CoV-2 wildlife sampling - Penn State researchers will use a $4.5 million grant from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) to test for SARS-CoV-2 in 58 wildlife species, with the goal of tracking potential human spillback.In a news release yesterday, Penn State said the researchers will collect more than 20,000 samples from wildlife such as eastern chipmunks, gray squirrels, raccoons, coyotes, white-footed mice, moose, wolverines, three species of deer, and several bat species. SARS-CoV-2 has already been found in 29 species, such as white-tailed deer, but most species haven't been tested. Kurt Vandegrift, PhD, principal investigator and associate research professor of biology, cited recent evidence from deer in New York that showed the continued circulation of SARS-CoV-2 variants long absent from humans. "Viral persistence is important because it not only poses a looming risk of spillback to humans, but also allows for viral evolution and the emergence of highly divergent variants for which our diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines could be ill prepared," he said in the release. The presence of the virus in wild animals also carries a risk of spillover to agricultural animals, which could threaten the food supply, he added.

US CDC expects 'tripledemic' hospitalizations to remain high this year vs pre-pandemic levels (Reuters) - The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said on Thursday it expects the total number of hospitalizations from COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus infections and flu this year to be similar to last year, higher than pre-pandemic levels. The government health agency also said it expects flu and RSV infections to increase over the fall and winter seasons. Vaccines for all three major respiratory viruses – COVID-19, flu, and RSV – will be available this fall, the CDC said. Higher levels of vaccination across the population will help reduce the number of hospitalizations and risk of straining the country's hospitals, CDC added. The CDC on Tuesday signed off on the broad use of updated COVID-19 vaccines made by Pfizer and partner BioNTech as well as Moderna - covering ages 6 months and upward - as the country prepares to start a vaccination campaign within days. A surge in cases of RSV infections coinciding with an increase in COVID transmission and an earlier-than-normal flu season has raised the specter of a so-called 'tripledemic' of respiratory illness across the United States.

Flu vaccine efficacy against hospitalization in South America was modest in 2023 season --Adjusted vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the influenza vaccine against hospitalization during the 2023 Southern Hemisphere flu season was 52%, with estimated protection of 55% against the predominant A(H1N1) strain, estimates a test-negative case-control study published late last week in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.A team led by researchers from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) analyzed data on 2,780 patients hospitalized for severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) reported by hospitals in five South American countries from March to July 2023. A total of 15.3% of flu patients were vaccinated against flu, compared with 28.0% of control patients, who tested negative for both flu and COVID-19.Participants, who had been prioritized for vaccination based on national immunization policy, included young children (45.4%), those with chronic conditions (14.0%), and older adults (40.6%). Of all patients, only 23.9% were vaccinated against flu.Midseason data were pooled from 486 sentinel hospitals, including 11 in Argentina, 455 in Brazil, 8 in Chile, 2 in Paraguay, and 10 in Uruguay. Because flu started circulating in the Southern Hemisphere earlier than usual and before flu vaccination campaigns, VE assessments began 2 weeks after each country's annual flu vaccination campaign.The countries participate in the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Network for the Evaluation of Vaccine Effectiveness in Latin America and the Caribbean–Influenza research network.The researchers noted that if the same flu virus strains that predominated in the Southern Hemisphere's March-to-September flu season also predominate during the Northern Hemisphere's October-to-May season, VE assessments may help inform flu-mitigation strategies in the United States. The Northern Hemisphere's flu vaccine formulation for the upcoming season targets strains that are genetically similar to those that circulated south of the equator. The egg-based, three-strain, Southern Hemisphere vaccine targeted the A/Sydney/5/2021 (H1N1)pdm09, A/Darwin/9/2021 (H3N2), and B/Austria/1359417/2021 (B/Victoria lineage) virus, while the egg-based quadrivalent vaccine also targeted B/Phuket/3073/2013 (B/Yamagata lineage).A total of 900 (32.4%) of SARI patients tested positive for flu (90.6% with influenza A and 9.4% with type B). Virus subtypes included H1N1 (99.3%) and H3N2 (0.07%); all influenza B strains were of the Victoria lineage.Nearly half (48.4%) of flu cases occurred in older adults, 35.8% were diagnosed in those with chronic conditions, and 17.0% occurred in young children.VE against hospitalization was estimated at 51.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 39.2% to 62.0%), including 55.2% (95% CI, 41.8% to 65.5%) against those related to the H1N1 strain. VE was 70.2% for young children and 37.6% among older adults.When restricted to H1N1, VE against hospitalization was 55.2%. Estimated VE against influenza B hospitalization was not statistically significant, and numbers of vaccinated patients with H3N2 were too low to estimate VE for that strain.

Nipah virus deaths reported in India - A source from India's National Institute of Virology (NIV) said today that two fatal Nipah virus infections have been confirmed in Kerala state, with testing under way for two suspected infections in members from the same family, Reuters reported today.An unnamed official from NIV told Reuters that one person died at the end of August and the other died in September and that the results have been sent to India's health ministry. A media report from India said the deaths involve patients from Kozhikode district. The story quoted a local health official, who said samples from four family members were sent to the NIV for testing.In 2018, an outbreak in India's Kozhikode district led to 17 deaths and was connected to fruit bats found in a family farm's well. In 2019, the country reported another outbreak in Kochi district, also in Kerala state. In 2021, the country reported an isolated case from Kozhikode district, which involved a 12-year-old boy who died from his infection, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Nipah virus, a paramyxovirus, is found in South and Southeast Asia. The disease has a high case-fatality rate, between 45% and 75%. The natural reservoir is fruit bats. Nipah virus is one of the WHO's priority diseases for research and development and is a key target of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness and Innovations (CEPI) for furthering the development of countermeasures against emerging infectious diseases.

India shutters schools, establishes containment zones in Nipah outbreak area - Following the deaths of two people from Nipah virus , with two more in the hospital, health officials in India's Kerala state have ordered some schools and offices to close to limit the spread of the virus, according to several media sources, including Al Jazeera, that cite local health officials. They have also announced containment zones in villages with connections to the cases. The initial patient who died is a landholder in the village of Marutonkara in Kozhikode district, where outbreaks of the highly lethal disease have been reported before, and fruit bats in the area are known to harbor Nipah virus. Media reports said the second patient who died wasn't related to the first case-patient, but had contact earlier in a hospital. The other confirmed patients who are hospitalized include an adult and a child who are family members of one of the patients who died. So far, more than 300 contacts have been identified, 127 of them health workers, theIndian Express reported. India battled an outbreak in Kozhikode district in 2018, which resulted in 17 deaths. Since then, the country has reported sporadic cases, including one in 2021, also from Kozhikode district.

Nipah outbreak in India grows to 6 cases -A 39-year-old man has tested positive for Nipah virus in India's Kerala state, raising the outbreak today to six cases, India Today reported today.Kerala Health Minister Veena George's office said the man, who is from the affected district of Kozhikode, is hospitalized under observation. He had first sought treatment at a private hospital where other Nipah patients were being treated.In good news, tests on 11 other patients who possibly had Nipah, which had been pending, came back negative for the virus, according to The Indian Express.Also today, the list of people who have come into contact with any of the patients grew to 950 people. Of those, 213 are in the high-risk category, including 21 who have been hospitalized and 287 healthcare workers. Fifteen samples from those in the high-risk category have been sent for testing.Of the six people with confirmed Nipah, two have died. One of the surviving patients is a 9-year-old boy on a ventilator. Officials have ordered monoclonal antibody treatment for him. Though the antiviral therapy is unproven, George said it is the only option. Today, the Times of India reported that the Indian Council of Medical Research has decided to obtain 20 more doses of the monoclonal antibody treatment from Australia. Schools will remain closed until tomorrow, and all public gatherings have been banned till September 24. Public Friday prayers today were also canceled.

Study: Hospital wastewater system a 'highway' for resistant bacteria - A study conducted at a hospital in Ireland highlights the potential for hospital wastewater systems to serve as a reservoir for clinically relevant antibiotic-resistant pathogens, researchers reported last week in the Journal of Hospital Infection. In the study, which was conducted at University Hospital Limerick, researchers performed a large-scale metagenomic analysis of wastewater pipes from a soon-to-be refurbished ward that has experienced multiple multidrug-resistant healthcare-associated infection outbreaks. For the analysis, they processed biofilm and extracted DNA from 20 pipe samples from patient rooms, including toilet u-bends and sink and shower drains. They also analyzed clinical isolates from patients who had been on the ward prior to refurbishment and were known to be colonized with antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Sequencing of DNA from the pipe samples revealed a diverse reservoir of antibiotic-resistance genes (ARGs), and the most ARGs observed were those encoding resistant to commonly used antibiotics, including tetracyclines, fluoroquinolones, beta-lactams, and macrolides. Similarly, a diverse range of ARGs was identified in the clinical isolates, and a comparison of the clinical isolates with DNA from the wastewater pipes revealed a considerable number of identical ARGs. "Whilst these data do not enable us to determine if resistance genes were transferred from patient to the wastewater system or indeed vice versa, they do allow us to confirm crossover in the resistome of clinically-relevant pathogens and the microbiome of the wastewater environment," the study authors wrote. Since all pipes and drains from the hospital's wastewater system connect to the same sewage system, the authors say the findings suggest the system forms a "wastewater highway" that could spread the resistant bacteria from sinks, shower drains, and toilets throughout the hospital—a finding they believe could influence the hospital's infection control and cleaning strategies going forward. "Such sites pose a risk for healthcare-associated infections, and if we can stop these reservoirs from being established by improved infection control practices, we can hopefully stop patients from acquiring difficult-to-treat infections," study co-author Nuala O'Connell, MD, of the University of Limerick said in a university press release.

Groups call on Congress to improve FDA's veterinary antibiotic stewardship efforts - Nearly 20 public health, environmental, and food safety groups last week sent a letter to US lawmakers calling for changes to federal legislation that would improve veterinary antibiotic stewardship. The letter urges Senate leadership to revise the Animal Drug User Fee Act (ADUFA) with specific changes that require the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to measure and report on whether its antibiotic stewardship activities have actually improved the use of medically important antibiotics in livestock and poultry. The legislation, first passed in 2003, needs to be reauthorized every 5 years and is set to expire on September 30.The groups note that the FDA's current 5-year antibiotic stewardship action plan, published in 2018, failed to establish consistent indicators for measuring stewardship in US food-animal production from one year to the next and doesn't include quantifiable goals for improving stewardship over time. "Absent both stewardship indicators and goals, this plan has left the FDA lacking the fundamental ability to demonstrate whether antibiotic stewardship in animals today is better, worse, or the same as it was in 2017, before the current plan was initiated," the groups wrote. While the FDA initially reported some decline in sales of medically important antibiotics for use in cows, pigs, chickens, and turkeys in 2017 (the year after it banned the use of antibiotics for growth promotion), sales have risen since then, and critics say medically important antibiotics continue to be overused on US farms. They also say that the FDA could do much more to track and measure antibiotic use in meat production.

About 1 in 10 mpox patients also had eye conditions, study finds -- Eleven of 100 mpox patients also had eye-related conditions such as conjunctivitis and eyelid lesions, researchers at a single center in Mexico report.The observational study took place at an HIV clinic in Mexico City from September to December 2022. The researchers reported the results late last week in The Journal of Infectious Diseases.The cases were part of a global mpox outbreak that began in May 2022. Median patient age was 34 years, 90.9% were men, and 9 had HIV, 6 of whom were receiving antiretroviral therapy.All patients had classic mpox lesions, most often on the trunk (81.8%), anogenital area (72.7%), arms or legs (72.7%), face (72.7%), and palms and soles (45.4%). The most common systemic symptoms were fever (72.7%), muscle pain (72.7%), weakness (63.6%), swollen lymph nodes (63.6%), and headache (45.4%).The most common findings in the 11 patients with ocular conditions were follicular conjunctivitis ("pink eye"; 6 patients), eyelid lesions (6), episcleritis (inflammation of the clear tissue layer covering the white parts of the eye; 1), and keratitis (inflammation of the cornea; 1).The eye conditions resolved within 1 month in all but the keratitis patient, who improved after treatment with topical interferon alfa-2b (the antiviral drugs recommended for severe mpox aren't available in Mexico).The researchers noted that the 11% rate of ocular manifestations is higher than those reported in previous studies, probably because they included an ocular assessment in the initial physical exam, and an ophthalmologic exam was performed for all patients with moderate to severe skin lesions.

Tests confirm H5N1 avian flu in Washington seals --Testing at the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Veterinary Services Laboratory has confirmedhighly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu in three adult harbor seals found stranded on Marrowstone Island in Puget Sound. The animals initially tested positive at the Washington Animal Disease Diagnostic Laboratory.A statement from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries said it is the first high-path avian influenza (HPAI) detection in marine mammals on the West Coast. In 2022, 17 H5N1 detections were reported in harbor seals in Maine.NOAA said the illnesses in Washington seals follows ongoing avian flu outbreaks since the middle of summer in sea birds on neighboring Marrowstone and Rat islands in the northern part of Puget Sound, which led to the deaths of about 1,700 birds. Officials said the virus isn't expected to affect Puget Sound's larger seal population. Kristin Wilkinson, NOAA's regional stranding and entanglement coordinator, said, "The discovery of HPAI H5N1 in seals brings to light the potential for cross-species transmission and highlights the complexity of managing infectious diseases in wildlife populations." She added that the continuing investigation emphasizes the importance of collaboration among agencies.NOAA urged people and their pets to avoid all contact with sick or dead wildlife. It added that although the risk to the general public remains low, beachgoers should not touch live or dead seals or allow pets to approach them.In a similar development, Danish officials reported H5N1 in seals found dead at the end of August at Avno, a nature area along the Smalandsfarvandet waterway, according to a statement from the Statens Serum Institut translated and posted by Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog.Officials also found carcasses of mute swans that had died earlier, and a sample from a swan was also positive for H5N1. Denmark had reported avian flu in two harbor seals in 2021. More tests are under way with collaborators from the University of Copenhagen to characterize the virus found in in the seals and birds.

Mass marine mortality event at Bang Phra Beach, Thailand - On Friday, September 8, 2023, Bang Phra Beach in Sri Racha, Thailand became the epicenter of a mass marine mortality event. An immense number of dead fish washed ashore, believed to be the aftermath of a recent monsoon affecting the sea’s conditions. The picturesque Bang Phra Beach of Sri Racha offered a grim sight to locals and visitors alike when vast quantities of fish carcasses covered its shores. The magnitude of the event left many stunned, with the number of fish being so overwhelming that providing an accurate count became impossible. In their interaction with Thai media outlets, locals who have long observed the intricacies of marine ecosystems speculated on the likely causes. The central theory revolved around the recent, severe monsoon which swept across Thailand. Interestingly, while areas like Pattaya remained untouched by the rain’s fury, its aftermath was strongly felt in the changing composition of the sea nearby. The extensive rainfall introduced large volumes of freshwater into the sea, leading to a rapid transformation in its conditions. The foremost consequence of this alteration was the manifestation of a natural event referred to as a plankton bloom. For many, its primary identifier is the distinct green tint it gives to the seawater, combined with a notable unpleasant smell. However, its implications run far deeper. The explosion in plankton numbers results in a significant drop in the water’s oxygen content. Consequently, the water becomes lethal for fish, as they are unable to survive in the oxygen-deprived environment. Local officials and authorities estimate the seawater’s conditions are likely to revert to their normal state in approximately one week. During this period, efforts will be made to manage the aftermath of the incident and prevent any further escalation.

Chemical companies to pay Pennsylvania $100 million for PCB contamination - Three chemical companies will pay Pennsylvania $100 million dollars to resolve claims that they contaminated the state’s waterways with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). The Monsanto Company, Solutia INC., and Pharmacia LLC manufactured products containing the toxic chemicals, which damaged waterways and other natural resources across Pennsylvania, according to the state. “By securing this settlement, DEP is holding Monsanto accountable for what it did to Pennsylvania’s water and making sure that Monsanto is paying for the work the Commonwealth has done to keep its water clean,” said Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Secretary Rich Negrin in a statement. In a statement, a spokesperson for Monsanto said the settlement contains no admission of liability or wrongdoing by the company, and will fully resolve the claims. The company also reached a similar $80 million agreement with the state of Virginia. “The Company never manufactured or disposed of PCBs in Pennsylvania or Virginia’s environments,” a statement reads. PCBs, which have no taste or smell, are a group of man-made organic chemicals consisting of carbon, hydrogen, and chlorine atoms. The chemicals were used to make various products, including electrical appliances such as TVs and refrigerators. An estimated 1.5 billion pounds of PCBs were made between the 1920s and 1979. Wastes from the manufacturing process were often placed in landfills and occasionally spilled into waterways. PCBs were banned in 1979 for their potential dangers to human and environmental health. The toxic chemicals are linked to liver and respiratory problems among people who were highly exposed, such as workers. Valley Creek is just one waterway out of many across the U.S. with elevated PFAS levels caused by wastewater treatment plants and electronics manufacturing facilities.

Spotted lanternflies not a danger to forests, according to Penn State study - Spotted lanternflies aren’t as harmful to most Pennsylvania hardwood trees as previously feared, according to new Penn State research. This study is the first of its kind to look at the long-term impacts of spotted lanternflies feeding on Northeastern hardwood trees. Researchers in the study, published in the journal Environmental Entomology, put the invasive insect in enclosures with different types of trees to see how their growth would be affected. The trees included silver maple, weeping willow, river birch and tree-of-heaven. Kelli Hoover is an entomology professor at Penn State and the study’s lead author. She said none of the trees died during the four-year study. “And in addition to that, this was the worst case scenario. You would never see lanternflies on trees this long. So in the real world, we’re not likely to see big reductions in growth, because the lanternflies – they’re just not on the trees that long,” Hoover said. The trees did have slower trunk diameter growth during the first two years of the study, but most recovered in the third year when researchers took away some lanternflies. The growth of the non-native tree-of-heaven, which lanternflies particularly like, remained flat in the third year. “If you have a vineyard and you have lanternflies on your grape vines, you should be very worried because they can kill grape vines,” Hoover said. “But if you’re a homeowner and you have large trees on your property and you have lanternflies on them, I don’t think you should worry about it.”

Lake Mead's rise levels off after 5-month climb -- 34% full as an incredible water year nears its end— Leveling off after steady increases since early April, Lake Mead appears to have reached its peak for the year — more than 22 feet above last year. That remarkable climb marks the end of a dizzying year and a half that brought us a body in a barrel, a speedboat sticking out of the lake bottom and at least 23 deaths just this year alone. And we could see it all happen again. Average daily levels computed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation show the surface of Lake Mead at 1,066.32 feet above sea level on Sept. 7. Since then, it has hovered around the same level and come down slightly, now at 1,066.25 feet as of midday Wednesday. That beats forecasts from earlier this year when Reclamation said the lake would reach 1,065.59 by the end of September. It’s always possible Reclamation might adjust operations in a way that increases the lake level this month. It’s a simple equation: how much comes in from Lake Powell, and how much gets sent downriver through Recent fluctuations in releases from Hoover Dam have all been within normal ranges, according to Reclamation spokesman Doug Hendrix. “Hoover operators coordinate in real time with the Western Area Power Administration to generate energy when it is most needed in the southwestern market. High volume water releases will occur when there is higher power demand,” Hendrix said. “Low releases will occur when there is not a significant demand on the system and energy prices are low.”

Jova becomes Western Hemisphere's strongest hurricane so far in 2023 ... for now - Hurricane Jova, churning west across the open Pacific Ocean, strengthened into a major Category 5 hurricane for a time from Wednesday evening into Thursday morning in the Eastern Pacific. However, the storm poses no immediate threat to land, AccuWeather hurricane experts say. The powerhouse hurricane, the first to achieve Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) in the basin since there were three such storms in 2018, may soon have company in the Atlantic, as Hurricane Lee strengthens into this weekend. AccuWeather, however, does not expect both hurricanes to be at their peak strength at the same time. As of Friday morning, local time, Jova was centered about 550 miles to the southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico, and was moving away from the country, to the west-northwest at 16 mph."Jova will track to the northwest through the weekend and is not expected to bring direct impacts to land," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said. "It will, however, bring rough surf and rip currents to the west coast of Mexico and potentially into coastal Southern California."Packing maximum sustained winds of 155 mph (249 km/h), Jova was a Category 4 hurricane, down from peak intensity at Category 5 status with 160 mph (257 km/h) winds from Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. A gradual loss of wind intensity is expected to continue through Friday and the weekend, as Jova moves over colder waters in the open Pacific, AccuWeather forecasters say.

Hurricane Lee poised to strike Atlantic Canada, but New England's still at risk --Hurricane Lee is not the Category 5 hurricane it once was over the open Atlantic, but AccuWeather meteorologists warn it will still unleash significant impacts in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada by this weekend. On Tuesday morning, Lee was a major Category 3 hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with 115 mph sustained winds. It was spinning less than 575 miles to the south of Bermuda.Lee spent some time as a Category 2 hurricane Sunday following a rapid intensification to a Category 5 hurricane with 165 mph sustained winds Friday while over the west-central Atlantic, making it the strongest storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Lee was just an 80-mph Category 1 hurricane Thursday. Only six hurricanes have experienced this level of rapid strengthening, and Lee is in the company of Hurricane Wima from 2005, Eta from 2020 and Maria from 2017,according to Colorado State Meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.By the time Lee makes landfall in North America (most likely), it will have traveled close to 3,000 miles since birth last week over the central Atlantic.Fluctuations in strength with Lee will occur due to changes in the hurricane's eye, upwelling of cool water beneath the storm and disruptive breezes known as wind shear, AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. Lee was moving around the western edge of high pressure over the central Atlantic and will be affected by strong winds at the level where jets fly, known as the jet stream, later this week. "Landfall is most likely in Nova Scotia, Canada, this weekend, but any waver in the track caused by non-tropical weather systems such as the high pressure to the east and the approaching jet stream could pull the hurricane westward toward New England or push it farther east toward Newfoundland and Labrador," Rayno explained.Near and east of where Lee rolls ashore, a significant storm surge will occur along with the strongest winds and risk of property damage. The rocky coastline and routine extreme tides in Maine and Canada may minimize storm surge flooding. However, if Lee tracks farther west, where the coastline's slope is more gradual, it could bring significant storm surge flooding.Near, north and west of where Lee rolls inland, heavy rain will develop, causing a high risk of flooding of streams and rivers where several inches or more pour down. AccuWeather meteorologists sounded the all-clear for landfall by Lee from Florida to North Carolina late last week. On Tuesday, forecasters expanded that all-clear to include areas as far to the north as Delaware.However, these same areas will experience frequent and strong rip currents that could be life-threatening. Rough surf will lead to beach erosion in the zone. Coastal flooding at times of high tide is likely along portions of North Carolina's Outer Banks and southeastern Virginia this week, with a peak possible Friday.

Tropical storm, storm surge watches issued for Massachusetts as Hurricane Lee tracks north – Boston 25 News— Tropical storm and storm surge watches have been issued for Massachusetts as Hurricane Lee spins on a northward path in the Atlantic Ocean, threatening to bring wind damage and flooding to the east coast of the Bay State this weekend, according to the National Weather Service.The NWS has issued a tropical storm watch for Nantucket, Dukes, Barnstable, Southern Plymouth, Southern Bristol, Eastern Plymouth, Western Plymouth, Eastern Norfolk, Suffolk, and Eastern Essex counties.A storm surge watch is in effect for Nantucket and Barnstable counties, the NWS said.As of early Wednesday evening, Lee was located about 380 miles south-southwest of Bermuda. It had winds of up to 105 miles per hour and was moving north-northwest at 10 mph. And to put that in perspective locally, Lee was located about 960 miles south of Nantucket and about 1050 miles south-southeast of Boston.The National Hurricane Center said Lee was expected to approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday and Saturday and remain a “large and dangerous hurricane.”“Hurricane Lee is forecast to pass offshore of southern New England on Saturday but its impacts will extend far from the storm’s center. Lee should bring rough surf, damaging winds, and bands of heavy rain to at least coastal areas of Massachusetts,” the NWS said in hurricane statement.The following are the primary hazards of concern with Lee, according to the NWS:

• Rough surf - Ocean beaches will experience dangerous rip currents and beach erosion through the weekend. Rough seas will also pose a significant hazard to mariners.
• Damaging wind - Winds will increase on Friday and remain gusty through Saturday night. Tropical storm force winds are possible late Friday night and Saturday near the coast, where downed branches or trees are possible since trees are fully leafed and root systems may be weakened from saturated soils.
• Flooding rainfall - Bands of heavy rain may result in flash flooding Friday night and Saturday, mainly near the coast. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible in a short period of time.
• Surge - Storm surge inundation of 2 to 4 feet above ground level possible along the northern coast of Barnstable County along Cape Cod Bay, and along the northern coast of Nantucket.

Hurricane Lee path: Vast stretches of coastal New England face hurricane and tropical storm watches ahead of storm's arrival | CNN— Hurricane Lee continues to creep toward New England, where hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued for much of its coastal residents in anticipation of the colossal storm’s possible impact on Friday and through the weekend. Lee’s winds could begin to buffet portions of New England as early as Friday as the storm’s center is expected to pass close to the region’s southeast before barreling near or over Maine and Atlantic Canada over the weekend as a “large and dangerous cyclone,” according to the National Hurricane Center.Though the storm – now a Category 2 hurricane – is expected to weaken as it approaches, it will still have a massive radius of damaging winds that will be significantly felt along coastal New England and Canada’s Atlantic provinces. “Hurricane conditions, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding are possible in portions of eastern Maine on Saturday,” the National Hurricane Center said. The area is under a hurricane watch, as is parts of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. “Life-threatening” storm surge flooding could inundate parts of southeastern Massachusetts late Friday and Saturday, the agency said. A storm surge watch has been issued for the area, including Cape Cod and Nantucket. A tropical storm watch has also been issued for large swaths of coastal New England, including Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts. Lee was about 325 miles southwest of Bermuda as of 2 a.m. ET Thursday and was churning with maximum sustained winds of up to 100 mph, according to a hurricane center advisory. The storm is on track to sweep past Bermuda to its west Thursday, prompting an island-wide tropical storm warning. Even if Lee doesn’t make landfall in New England, the sprawl of its damaging winds means there will be “little to no significance on exactly where the center reaches the coast,” the hurricane center has said. As of Thursday morning, hurricane-force winds extend up to 115 miles from its center and tropical storm-force winds stretch for up to 265 miles, according to the agency. And that wind field has only been growing larger, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Lt. Commander Josh Rannenberg, who flew through the storm’s eye on Wednesday. “When a storm spreads out like this, it can be intimidating in the sense that the damage is going to be much more widespread,” Rannenberg told CNN’s “Erin Burnett Out Front” Wednesday night.

Hurricane Watch Issued For Maine As Lee Poses Rare New England Threat -- A hurricane watch was issued for part of eastern Maine on Wednesday afternoon as a result of Hurricane Lee, which has also put much of coastal New England under a tropical storm watch and is expected to leave the area with heavy wind and rip currents this weekend—even if it doesn’t make landfall as a hurricane. The area of Maine from Stonington to the U.S.-Canada border is under a hurricane watch, while a tropical storm watch was issued for parts of New England—from Watch Hill, Rhode Island, to Stonington—and a storm surge watch was issued for Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket, the National Hurricane Center said in its Wednesday afternoon update. Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket and Block Island are also within the tropical storm watch area, which includes the entire Massachusetts coastline. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible and are usually issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds. Hurricane Lee—which is currently a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph—is expected to slowly weaken over the next few days, but remain “a large and dangerous hurricane into the weekend,” according to the NHC. The storm has grown significantly since last week: Now, hurricane force winds from Lee are forecast to extend outward up to 115 miles from the center of the storm, and tropical storm force winds will extend up to 265 miles. As of Wednesday morning, swells from Lee were impacting parts of the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas and more. The swells are likely to cause “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions” around parts of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coast, and those conditions could spread to New England and Atlantic Canada later on Wednesday. In addition to the swells, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting an increasing risk of wind, coastal flooding and rain impacts from Hurricane Lee in portions of New England beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee rips ‘pretty impressive’ 93 MPH winds while racing toward Canada -- Hurricane Lee raced past the New England coast to make landfall in Canada Saturday afternoon.The northeastern United States dodged the predicted worst of the destructive Lee, which was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone early Saturday, but still brought fearsome winds as high as 93 miles per hour as it barreled northward.“There have been some pretty impressive wind gusts,” Fox Weather meteorologist Cody Braud told The Post. “We got 93 miles per hour from Grand Manan Island, just off the coast of New Brunswick.”The post-tropical cyclone made its first official landfall on Long Island, Nova Scotia, lashing the thin strip of land with 70 mph winds, Braud said.The storm was expected to charge across the Bay of Fundy toward New Brunswick to make landfall again near the coastal city of St. John.“Nova Scotia is seeing the worst right now, and the winds will decrease as it goes north,” he said.As of Saturday afternoon, over 141,000 homes and businesses lacked electricity in Nova Scotia and more than 26,000 in New Brunswick, according to Poweroutage.us.Braud said much of Lee’s impact Saturday morning was along the Maine coast, with 10- to 20-foot waves slamming the shoreline as 83 mph wind gusts were recorded in the far eastern town of Perry.Flash and coastal flooding alerts were also in place in the Pine Tree state.As of Saturday afternoon, nearly 96,000 homes and businesses in Maine were without electricity, according to Poweroutage.us, with additional reports of downed trees.Off the coast of Massachusetts, tropical-force-storm winds whipped through Nantucket and Boston, Braud said, with reports of a fallen tree crushing a couple of cars in the state but, so far, no more significant damage.

Over 98,000 without power in Maine as post-tropical cyclone Lee makes landfall near U.S.- Canada border --About 63,000 utility customers in Maine are currently without power, according toPoweroutage.us., as post-tropical cyclone Lee made landfall in Nova Scotia in eastern Canada.Lee made landfall on Long Island in Digby County, Nova Scotia at around 4 p.m. Saturday with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.The storm will move across eastern Canada on Saturday night and Sunday.Formerly a hurricane, Lee became a post-tropical cyclone Saturday because it no longer possesses the characteristics to be considered tropical.Lee was producing winds of 65 mph on Saturday night and was expected to continue to weaken, according to the National Hurricane Center.Lee was bringing heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding to parts of New England and Canada, leading to downed trees and power outages.The storm, which was about 40 miles east-southeast of Eastport, Maine, was expected to bring an additional 1 to 2 inches over parts of western Maine and New Brunswick, the Hurricane Center said.A "dangerous storm surge" was also expected to bring coastal flooding to Atlantic Canada and will be accompanied by "large and destructive waves" near the coast.A tropical storm warning is in effect for all of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Magdalen Islands and across northern New Brunswick.

More than 2,000 people feared dead in Libya after 'catastrophic and unprecedented' flooding — More than 2,000 people in Libya are feared dead in severe flooding, according to a Libyan leader, as Storm Daniel swept through the eastern part of the country. The head of Libya’s eastern parliament-backed government, Osama Hamad, announced the death toll on Monday, according to a report from state news organization Libyan News Agency. “Osama Hamad said in press statements that residential neighborhoods disappeared after the torrents swept them into the sea along with thousands of their residents, and the situation is catastrophic and unprecedented in Libya,” LANA reported. CNN has not been able to independently verify the number of deaths, and Hamad did not give a source for the number of dead and missing. Footage shared on social media shows submerged cars, collapsed buildings and torrents of water rushing through streets. Hamad called on medical personnel and medical assistants to go to the badly affected city of Derna in eastern Libya to provide assistance immediately. Phone lines were down in Derna and pictures shared by the Red Crescent showed severely flooded streets. The Red Crescent in Benghazi said on Monday they estimate 150 to 250 people are dead in the city of Derna, according to Reuters. Hospitals in the eastern city of Bayda were evacuated after severe flooding from rainfall caused by a heavy storm, videos shared by the Medical Center of Bayda on Facebook showed. This rain is the result of the remnants of a very strong low-pressure system, which was officially named Storm Daniel by the national meteorological services in southeastern Europe. The storm brought catastrophic flooding to Greece last week before moving into the Mediterranean and developing into a tropical-like cyclone known as a medicane. These systems can bring dangerous conditions to the Mediterranean Sea and coastal countries, similar to tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic or typhoons in the Pacific. The remains of the storm are affecting northern Libya and will slowly head east toward northern Egypt. Rainfall for the next two days could reach 50 mm – this region averages less than 10 mm across the whole of September.

Over 5 300 dead, thousands missing as Medicane “Marquesa” (Daniel) causes catastrophic flooding in Libya -- (videos) Medicane “Marquesa”, also known as Storm Daniel, made a devastating landfall in Libya on September 10, 2023, resulting in severe flash flooding, especially in the country’s northeast. The storm brought with it extremely heavy rainfall, leading to catastrophic flooding and a tragic death toll of over 5 300 people, with thousands still missing. Medicane “Marquesa” began as a low-pressure system spinning in the central Mediterranean, causing heavy rains and major flooding in central Greece. By September 8, 2023, it developed a well-organized convective pattern, meeting the criteria for designation as a medistorm. The Mediterranean Cyclone Center (MCC) named the storm Marquesa at 12:00 UTC on the same day. The cyclone then set its sights on Libya, slowing down and lingering off the Libyan coast on September 9. Satellite data confirmed Marquesa’s landfall just north of Benghazi around 01:30 UTC on September 10, boasting maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h (59 mph) and a central pressure of 995 hPa. The aftermath was catastrophic. Northeastern Libya, a region that typically sees an average annual rainfall of 25 mm (1 inch), was inundated with up to 406 mm (16 inches) of rain in 24 hours to September 10. During the same period, 240 mm (9.4 inches) of rain fell in Marawah in the District of Jabal al Akhdar, and 170 mm (6.7 inches) fell in Al Abraq in the Derna District. According to figures from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the city of Derna recorded 73 mm (2.9 inches) of rain in 24 hours to September 11. To put this in perspective, Libya receives an average annual rainfall of about 30 mm (1.18 inches). The wettest months are December, January and February with 13.26 mm (0.5 inches), followed by September, October and November with 8.28 mm (0.3 inches), March, April and May with 7.48 mm (0.29 inches) and June, July and August with 1.83 mm (0.07 inches). Derna, located in the Cyrenaica Region of northeastern Libya, was the hardest hit, with mudslides affecting thousands of people. In response to the disaster, cities like Benghazi and others in the eastern part of Libya implemented curfews and suspended school activities. Late Tuesday afternoon, September 12, local officials reported the death toll had reached 5 300. However, thousands more are missing. According to Libyan Media, the country’s Minister of Health said he expects the number of victims to rise to 10 000 and the missing to reach about 100 000. Authorities in Libya have estimated that as many as 2 000 people lost their lives in the eastern city of Derna alone. The city has been declared a disaster zone. Ahmed al-Mosmari, a spokesman for the country’s armed forces based in the east, attributed the catastrophe to the collapse of two nearby dams, causing a lethal flash flood.

Catastrophic Libya flood kills thousands, desperate relatives search for survivors (Reuters) - Residents of the devastated Libyan city of Derna desperately searched for missing relatives on Wednesday and rescue workers appealed for more body bags, after a catastrophic flood that killed thousands of people and swept many out to sea. Swathes of the Mediterranean city were obliterated by a torrent of water unleashed by a powerful storm that swept down a usually dry riverbed on Sunday night, bursting dams above the city. Multi-storey buildings collapsed with sleeping families inside. Officials have put the number of missing at 10,000. The U.N. aid agency OCHA said the figure was at least 5,000. Usama Al Husadi, a 52-year-old driver, has been searching for his wife and five children since the disaster. "I went by foot searching for them ... I went to all hospitals and schools but no luck," he told Reuters, weeping with his head in his hands. Husadi, who had been working the night of the storm, dialled his wife's phone number once again. It was switched off. "We lost at least 50 members from my father’s family, between missing and dead," he said. The beach was littered with clothes, toys, furniture, shoes and other possessions swept out of homes by the torrent. Streets were covered in deep mud and strewn with uprooted trees and hundreds of wrecked cars, many flipped on their sides or their roofs. One car was wedged on the second-floor balcony of a gutted building. "I survived with my wife but I lost my sister," Mohamed Mohsen Bujmila, a 41-year-old engineer, said. "My sister lives downtown where most of the destruction happened. We found the bodies of her husband and son and buried them." He also found the bodies of two strangers in his apartment. As he spoke an Egyptian search-and-rescue team nearby recovered the body of his neighbour. "This is Aunt Khadija, may God grant her heaven," Bujmila said. The devastation is clear from high points above Derna, where the densely populated city centre, built along a seasonal riverbed, was now a wide, flat crescent of earth with stretches of muddy water gleaming in the sun. Buildings were swept away.

Libya floods death toll hits 11,300 -At least 11,300 are now believed to have died after torrents of water ripped through eastern Libya — a devastating toll that could largely have been avoided, global officials said Thursday. Marie el-Drese, secretary general of the Libyan Red Crescent, told The Associated Press by phone that a further 10,100 had been reported missing in the ruined city of Derna. Earlier, city officials said the death toll could reach 20,000. A precise tally of the rising number of people killed is incredibly difficult to compile given the level of destruction and the chaotic political situation in the region, with bodies still washing up on the shore and burials being held in mass graves. As rescuers searched underwater and under rubble, fears grew that rotting bodies could lead to a deadly outbreak of disease. A deluge of rainfall from Mediterranean storm Daniel caused two dams to collapse, sending waves more than 20 feet high through the heart of Derna, a port city in the country's east. More than 7,000 residents were wounded, ambulance service spokesman Osama Ali told NBC News. Numbers have varied depending on which official has provided them, though all put the toll well into the thousands and Derna's mayor has said that it could more than triple as search teams and survivors find more bodies in the ruins. “The situation is very large and surprising for the city of Derna. We were not able to confront it with our capabilities that preceded the storm and the torrent,” Mayor Abdel Moneim al-Ghaithi told Sky News Arabia on Wednesday night. His office said that the number of those killed could hit 20,000 — around a fifth of the city’s population — based on estimates of those living in areas that were swept away.

Derna: Deadly floods leave Libyan city looking like a war zone — Driving into Derna in the early hours was like arriving in a ghost town. The city, decimated by flash floods that tore through homes and streets earlier this week, was eerily quiet. Even at night, damage and destruction could be seen everywhere you looked. In the light of day, a scene of utter devastation unfolded. For our team, which traveled into the area with the Libyan National Army (LNA), it felt like driving into a war zone where massive bombs had gone off. More than 5,000 people are believed to have been killed with thousands more missing, though estimates from different Libyan officials and aid groups have varied and the toll is expected to rise. Everyone CNN spoke to in Derna fears and believes the death toll is only going to rise significantly in the coming days. Officials told us the destruction and loss of life happened within the span of 90 minutes or so after the two dams above Derna burst, sending flood waters sweeping through the city, wiping out entire neighborhoods, homes and infrastructure, and carrying them out to sea. People are in shock. This is a country that has experienced years of turmoil since the overthrow of Moammar Gadhafi’s regime in 2011 – but the disaster has hit Libyans hard. They say they still can’t comprehend what happened. They are used to war and death but nothing could have prepared them for this: They feel like a whole city has been wiped out. Officials in the city are dealing with search and rescue efforts, recovery, draining the flood water, helping the displaced – situations they have never handled before. One official told CNN he doesn’t believe the search for survivors is over. Libyan officials say bodies are still washing back up on the shores of Derna, days after the wall of water swept through the city. The detritus of people’s lives can also be seen in the Mediterranean waters – homes, door frames, windows, furniture, clothes, cars – everything. Meanwhile, at least 30,000 people there have been displaced, the International Organization for Migration said Thursday. Concern for the welfare of survivors is growing.

Climate change and the hidden water cost of the Panama Canal - You've almost certainly read about the backup of ships waiting to transit the Panama Canal, which carries 6 percent of all commercial ships worldwide. While the worry among faraway readers may be concerns about supply chain disruptions that could lead to holiday shopping shortages, the problem in Panama is more immediate. The proximate cause of the backup is severe drought. That makes sense on its face because the canal is full of water and that water has to come from somewhere.In a tropical country with copious rainfall—260 cm (102 inches) on average for the whole country in 2021—one wonders what passes for drought. (For comparison, I used to live in Portland, Oregon, a rather damp city with 44 inches of annual rainfall.) But inadequate rain during Panama's rainy season has left two artificial lakes which feed the canal low on water. These lakes must supply 200 million liters (53 million gallons) of fresh water for each ship that transits the canal, water that is lost to the ocean. During the Panama Canal Authority's fiscal 2022 year more than 14,000 vessels transited the canal. This matters doubly because these lakes also supply drinking water to half of all Panamanians.The result is that the Canal Authority must ration water to the locks, decreasing the depth of the water and keeping many ships from carrying full loads that would cause the ships to hit the bottom of the locks. It has also had to limit the total number of ships making the trip in order to conserve water.The problem is not going away soon. The authority has said that restrictions on the number and draft of vessels will remain in effect through 2024.The canal is just one more example of infrastructure built with the idea of a stable climate in mind. Elsewhere just last year, shipping on the Rhine River was disrupted by low water levels as was a main shipping artery in China, the Yangtze River. The Mississippi River experienced low water levels in 2022 and may again experience low water this year just as the grain harvest comes in, a harvest that depends on the river to carry much of its produce.There has been talk of building a second canal across Nicaragua on and off since 1825. Such a canal would face the moving target of climate change. New infrastructure can no longer be built relying merely on records from the past. It will have to grapple with changes in the future that cannot be easily forecast as climate change makes long-term weather patterns ever more unpredictable.

Rare weather event, seen only twice per year, to impact southwest Western Australia - A severe cold front is set to impact a vast region of southern Western Australia on September 13, 2023. The event, characterized by strong winds, thunderstorms, and significant rainfall, is expected to be more intense than typical fronts, with such conditions seen only about twice annually. The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Severe Weather Warning, highlighting the potential for widespread damaging winds, especially along the west coast. Some areas might even experience locally destructive winds. With the front’s approach, Perth and much of the southwestern region of the state are forecasted to receive rainfall amounts ranging from 20 to 40 mm (0.8 to 1.6 inches). However, isolated regions, particularly over the Darling Scarp and through the southwest, could witness heavy rainfall, with amounts possibly reaching 60 to 70 mm (2.3 to 2.7 inches). Accompanying the front, there’s a possibility of severe thunderstorms, which could further escalate the wind conditions, making them damaging to even locally destructive in nature. As a result of the anticipated weather patterns, Elevated Fire Dangers and Fire Weather Warnings have been forecasted for the inland parts of the state for the upcoming Wednesday, September 13. Coastal regions are also on alert, as large waves are expected to produce hazardous surf conditions. These conditions pose a significant risk for coastal activities, including swimming, surfing, and rock fishing, especially across the south-western parts of Western Australia. These dangerous conditions are expected to persist through Wednesday and Thursday. Furthermore, the cold, wet, and windy conditions have prompted the issuance of a Sheep Graziers Warning for a significant portion of south-west Western Australia. Residents and communities are strongly advised to stay informed by regularly checking updates from the Bureau of Meteorology website and the Weather app. It’s also crucial to heed the advice and instructions of emergency services during this period.

Polar vortex forming over North Pole: What it means for winter 2023/24 - As the winter season of 2023/2024 approaches, a newly forming Polar Vortex is drawing attention in the Stratosphere over the North Pole. Its rapid intensification could lead to significant weather impacts for parts of North America and Europe. With the current atmospheric dynamics, including the east phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño phase, there’s an increased likelihood of colder winters in the US, Canada, and Europe. Additionally, there’s an anticipated above-average snowfall across the eastern US and Europe. The term “Polar Vortex” has varying definitions. However, in the context of our winter weather, its importance lies in its strength, as it determines the weather conditions we experience at the surface. Come autumn, the polar regions start to cool down due to the diminishing angle of the sun, receiving minimal solar energy. In contrast, regions further south continue to receive ample sunlight. This stark temperature difference between the poles and subtropical areas results in the formation of a low-pressure circulation known as the Polar Vortex. This circulation spans from the earth’s surface to the upper reaches of the atmosphere. A strong Polar Vortex implies a robust polar circulation, which typically contains the colder air in the polar regions, resulting in milder conditions across places like the US and Europe. Conversely, a weak Polar Vortex means the colder arctic air is not confined and can flow into regions like the US and Europe, leading to cooler conditions. The North Pole has already begun its cooling process, traditionally initiating in August and intensifying in the ensuing months. The Polar Vortex is expected to be at its peak strength during November and December. Current forecasts for September highlight a rapidly developing and expanding Polar Vortex, which, with increasing strength, will have a more pronounced influence on our surface weather. Analysis from the ECMWF seasonal forecast reveals the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is currently in its east (negative) phase. This indicates the potential for a weaker jet stream, sudden stratospheric warming events, and colder winters across the US, Canada, and Europe. During an easterly QBO, the Polar Vortex and stratospheric winter circulation tend to be weaker, leading to an increased likelihood of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events. Such events can disrupt the Polar Vortex, resulting in weather impacts across the Northern Hemisphere. These include disruptions in the jet stream and a release of colder Arctic air into Europe and the US. Moreover, with the onset of the El Niño phase of ENSO, a warm ocean anomaly in the tropical Pacific Ocean, there’s an elevated chance of a Polar Vortex collapse in the early winter months. This potential collapse, often observed in December and January, could lead to significant weather changes in January 2024. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with greater than 95% chance through December 2023 -February 2024.

Over 2,000 people killed as earthquake devastates Morocco --On Friday night, an earthquake in Morocco hit mountainous areas near the city of Marrakesh, killing at least 2,000 people and injuring more than 2,000. Of the wounded, over 1,400 are in critical condition, according to Morocco’s Interior Ministry. The death toll is tragically expected to rise, as the worst-affected areas are remote mountain villages which rescue teams are struggling to reach due to poor infrastructure and emergency planning. It remains unclear how many more thousands of people may still be buried under the rubble. The epicentre of Friday’s earthquake was near Ighil in Al-Haouz Province, roughly 70 kilometres south of Marrakesh, Morocco’s fourth-largest city. The 6.8-magnitude quake shook the High Atlas mountain range at a relatively shallow depth of 18.5 kilometres, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS). It was Morocco’s deadliest earthquake since 1960, when a magnitude 5.8 quake struck near Agadir, killing at least 12,000 people. UN officials estimate 300,000 people have been impacted by the earthquake. The quake was felt across Morocco including the coastal towns of Imsouane and Essaouira, 180 and 200 km west of Marrakesh; in the capital, Rabat, 350 km north of the epicentre; and in Portugal and Algeria. Most of the deaths were reported in mountainous Al-Haouz and Taroudant provinces. According to the Moroccan Interior Ministry, the death toll reached 1,293 in the Al-Haouz region, 452 in the Taroudant region, 191 in the town of Chichaoua, 41 in the Ouarzazate region, 15 in Marrakesh prefecture, 11 in the Azilal province, 5 in the Agadir Ida-Outanane prefecture, 3 in Casablanca province and 1 in the Youssoufia province. The village of Tafeghaghte, 40 miles southwest of Marrakesh, was almost entirely destroyed. Hospitals in Marrakesh are seeing a huge influx of injured people, and authorities are calling on residents to donate blood. The region is located in a well-known earthquake zone and is home to members of Morocco’s Amazigh (or Berber) community. Moroccan King Mohamed VI’s regime has systematically isolated the region to focus on development projects in large cities such as Marrakesh and repressed the region’s inhabitants when they protested against this. Samia Errazzouki, a research fellow studying Morocco at Stanford University, said: “This region, outside of any natural disaster and on a normal day, is one of the most difficult regions to get to as the infrastructure is so poor. Roads and access to this region are already difficult, before you compound that with difficulties like rubble or problems with the roads. It’s going to take a miracle to get immediate aid there.”

Rapid uplift and strong seismicity precede new eruption at Kīlauea, Hawaii - (video) At 01:15 UTC on September 11, 2023 (15:15 HST, September 10), the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) identified new eruptive activity at Kīlauea’s summit within Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park, based on webcam images and field reports. The eruption was preceded by intense seismic activity and rapid uplift at the summit. Eruptive activity commenced within the Halemaʻumaʻu crater and on the adjacent down dropped block to the east in Kīlauea’s summit caldera. HVO is keeping a close watch, given the dynamic nature of the eruption’s opening phases. Webcam visuals confirm fissures at Halemaʻumaʻu crater’s base, spewing lava flows across the crater floor. The current activity remains limited to Halemaʻumaʻu, with potential hazards being re-evaluated as the situation unfolds. The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory elevated Kīlauea’s volcano alert level from Watch to Warning, also changing its aviation color code from Orange to Red. These adjustments stem from the urgency to assess the eruption and the related dangers it poses. The hazard analysis carried out revealed that the eruptive activities are contained within a section of Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park that is closed to the public. Primary volcanic gas hazards have been pinpointed as high concentrations of water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). The continuous release of SO2 during the eruption is anticipated to react in the atmosphere, leading to the formation of vog (volcanic smog) that will drift downwind of Kīlauea. Vital information about vog can be accessed at https://vog.ivhhn.org/. Moreover, additional threats are posed by the fallout of Pele’s hair and other lightweight volcanic glass shards resulting from the lava fountains. These fragments are expected to settle downwind of the fissure vents, blanketing the ground within several hundred meters/yards. It’s recommended that locals and tourists limit exposure to these volcanic particles to avoid potential skin and eye irritations. Furthermore, the region around Kīlauea caldera, particularly near the Halemaʻumaʻu crater, remains dangerous due to wall instability, ground fissures, and potential rockfalls. These hazards may be exacerbated by tremors in the vicinity that is off-limits to visitors. The Kīlauea caldera rim, which encompasses the Halemaʻumaʻu crater, has been declared a no-go zone for the public since the end of 2007. Live view of the eruption in Halemaʻumaʻu, from the northwest rim of the caldera, looking east [V1cam]:

Heavy ash emissions following intense explosion at Yasur volcano, Vanuatu - Vanuatu’s Yasur volcano experienced increased activity on September 12, 2023, with intense explosions and abundant ash emissions. The Alert Level remains at 2 of 4. On Tuesday, September 12, the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department (VMGD) reported a significant ash cloud emission from the volcano, which began around 14:00 local time and lasted until 17:00 LT. Winds carried the ash in the southeast direction, impacting the Whitesands area. Residents in this region were advised to anticipate the impact of ash and volcanic gases. In addition to these explosive events, the volcano continues to produce small to moderate near-frequent strombolian eruptions. These eruptions eject lava bombs that land within the crater confines. Alongside these eruptions, there are constant passive emissions of steam and gas, a phenomenon referred to as “venting.” On August 31, VMGD reported that activity at Yasur continues at a high level of “major unrest,” as defined by the Alert Level 2 status (the middle level on a scale of 0 – 4). “Recent satellite observations indicated an increase in steam, gas, and ash emissions from the summit crater. Explosions continued, with some ejecting bombs that landed back in and around the crater. The public was reminded not to enter the restricted area within 600 m (2 000 feet) around the boundaries of the Permanent Exclusion Zone, defined by Danger Zone A on the hazard map.”

EPA: Climate law will cut carbon emissions up to 43 percent - The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is poised to cut economy-wide carbon emissions by up to 43 percent relative to 2005 levels, according to the first Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report on the 2022 climate and infrastructure law. The report, released Tuesday, indicates the IRA cuts economy-wide emissions between 35 percent and 43 percent below 2005 levels in 2030. In the electric power sector specifically, it cuts emissions between 49 percent and 83 percent from 2005 levels, according to the EPA. The report projects 2030 carbon emissions from electricity at 11 percent to 67 percent lower than a scenario in which the IRA was not implemented. The EPA noted that a “handful” of models indicate higher emissions under the IRA in 2025, which it attributes to the no-IRA scenario featuring higher short-term investments in renewable energy around that time before tax credits expire. The emissions cuts are flatter in the long term under the IRA projections because it extends those tax credits. The greatest reductions of direct and indirect emissions are in electricity use by buildings, where the report projects emissions falling by 49 percent to 63 percent in 2030. This is followed by the transportation sector, where the report projects a reduction of 11 percent to 25 percent. By 2035, it puts the cuts between 52 percent and 70 percent for buildings and 15 percent to 35 percent for the transportation sector. “The Inflation Reduction Act is transforming energy production and consumption in dramatic ways, paving the way towards a clean energy future,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement. “This report shows robust evidence that America’s clean energy transformation is driving significant reductions in CO2 emissions, putting us on a clear path to achieve President Biden’s bold climate goals.”

South Dakota panel denies application for CO2 pipeline; Summit to refile for permit -South Dakota regulators on Monday rejected a permit application for a proposed carbon dioxide pipeline through the state, dealing a fresh setback to the company behind the multistate project after North Dakota refused a siting permit for another leg there.The South Dakota Public Utilities Commission voted unanimously to turn down Summit Carbon Solutions' application to build a 469-mile in-state route — part of an intended $5.5 billion, 2,000-mile pipeline network through five states.The decision complicates an already complex process for Summit Carbon Solutions as it seeks similar authorization in other states amid opposition from landowners and environmental groups. The proposed network would carry planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions from more than 30 ethanol plants in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota for permanent underground storage in central North Dakota.After the South Dakota vote, Summit announced it intends “to refine its proposal and reapply for a permit in a timely manner.” The project would use carbon capture technology, what supporters see as a combatant of climate change, though opponents criticize its effectiveness at scale and the need for potentially huge investments over cheaper renewable energy sources. New federal tax incentives and billions of dollars from Congress toward carbon capture efforts have made such projects lucrative. The South Dakota panel's vote came on a motion made Friday by commission staff. They said Summit's proposed route would violate county ordinances involving setback distances. The panel on Monday was to have begun a weekslong hearing for Summit's proposal, but the hearing was adjourned and will not continue. Summit on Thursday had dropped a motion for preempting county ordinances, regulations which attorney Brett Koenecke wrote “have the intended or unintended effect of hampering projects like this one." He cited the panel's unanimous decision Wednesday to deny a similar request by Navigator CO2 Ventures for its proposed pipeline, to which the commission also denied a construction permit. Commission Vice Chair Gary Hanson said a permit could not be legally issued if the evidenced showed the applicant is currently unable to comply with existing statutes and regulations, adding “that's the challenge that we're having here.” "I believe that the applicant will be able to come back with, eventually, a clean application, and when they do, that is when it is proper to examine it,” Hanson said.

US Treasury to issue more clean energy tax credit guidance by year-end - (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury said on Friday it will provide guidance on additional clean energy tax incentives before the end of 2023, including a provision aimed at deterring companies from relying on Chinese supply chains. Lily Batchelder, the Treasury's assistant secretary for tax policy, declined to provide reporters with specific timing for the guidance on "foreign entity of concern" rules. But she said the guidance would be released before year-end, along with guidance for the "45X" manufacturing production tax for clean energy products such as solar, wind, batteries and critical minerals components. The auto industry is watching the rules for both credits as they make investment decisions on producing batteries for their transition to electric vehicles. The foreign entity of concern rules come into effect in 2024 for completed batteries and 2025 for critical minerals used to produce them. A key decision in the guidance is whether Ford Motor Co's (F.N) deal to license the technology of Chinese battery manufacturer CATL (300750.SZ) for use in Ford-owned U.S. battery plants will meet the Treasury's standards to access the tax credits. The arrangement has raised concerns among U.S. lawmakers. Batchelder said that in the near term, Treasury would release guidance on tax credits for investments in energy efficient home improvements and sustainable aviation fuel. Other guidance expected before the end of 2023 includes Section 48 clean power investment tax credit and clean hydrogen tax credits. According to initial estimates made when the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was passed in August 2022, the cost of its clean energy tax credits was estimated at around $369 billion over 10 years. Since then, strong demand for the credits from investment projects have prompted some analysts to estimate that the IRA's fiscal costs could reach $1 trillion. Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Kim Coghill

Biden’s Climate Law Is Reshaping Private Investment in the United States - Private investment in clean energy projects like solar panels, hydrogen power and electric vehicles surged after President Biden signed an expansive climate bill into law last year, a development that shows how tax incentives and federal subsidies have helped reshape some consumer and corporate spending in the United States.New data being released on Wednesday suggest the climate law and other parts of Mr. Biden’s economic agenda have helped speed the development of automotive supply chains in the American Southwest, buttressing traditional auto manufacturing centers in the industrial Midwest and the Southeast. The 2022 law, which passed with only Democratic support, aided factory investment in conservative bastions like Tennessee and the swing states of Michigan and Nevada. The law also helped underwrite a spending spree on electric cars and home solar panels in California, Arizona and Florida.The data show that in the year since the climate law passed, spending on clean-energy technologies accounted for 4 percent of the nation’s total investment in structures, equipment and durable consumer goods — more than double the share from four years ago.The law so far has failed to supercharge a key industry in the transition from fossil fuels that Mr. Biden is trying to accelerate: wind power. Domestic investment in wind production declined over the past year, despite the climate law’s hefty incentives for producers. And so far the law has not changed the trajectory of consumer spending on some energy-saving technologies like highly efficient heat pumps.But the report, which drills down to the state level, provides the first detailed look at how Mr. Biden’s industrial policies are affecting clean energy investment decisions in the private sector.The data come from the Clean Investment Monitor, a new initiative from the Rhodium Group, a consulting firm; and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. Its findings go beyond simpler estimates, from the White House and elsewhere, providing the most comprehensive look yet at the effects of Mr. Biden’s economic agenda on America’s emerging clean-energy economy.The researchers spearheading the first cut of the data include Trevor Houser, a former Obama administration official, who is a partner at Rhodium; and Brian Deese, a former director of Mr. Biden’s National Economic Council, who is an innovation fellow at M.I.T. The Inflation Reduction Act, which Mr. Biden signed into law in August 2022, includes a wide range of lucrative incentives to encourage domestic manufacturing and speed the nation’s transition away from fossil fuels. That includes expanded tax breaks for advanced battery production, solar-panel installation, electric vehicle purchases and other initiatives. Many of those tax breaks are effectively unlimited, meaning they could eventually cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars — or even top $1 trillion — if they succeed at driving enough new investment.

This tax tweak is supercharging Biden’s climate agenda - Tucked deep within President Biden’s landmark climate bill sits a seemingly small tweak to IRS rules that, for the first time, lets companies sell their clean energy tax credits. The change accounts for just a fraction of the 100,000 or so words in the Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, which Congress passed in 2022. But experts say that by making clean energy tax credits more accessible, the move will help drive most of the government’s investment in the sector over the next decade and supercharge the industry. “It’s pretty unprecedented,” said Jorge Medina, an attorney who specializes in renewable energy and tax policy at the firm Shearman & Sterling. “There hasn’t been a program quite like this, and not on this scale.” After President Biden signed the IRA into law last summer, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that its tax credits would account for roughly three quarters of the legislation’s $369 billion in climate incentives. When the treasury department released its proposed transferability rules in June, Secretary Janet Yellencalled the mechanism a “force multiplier.” Grist thanks its sponsors. Become one. The IRA provides tax credits for a range of clean energy technologies, from the deployment of solar and wind to the development of clean hydrogen and carbon-capture projects. But these benefits can only be used to offset tax liabilities, which many startups or projects may not have until they begin earning profits. Before the IRA, clean energy developers got around this by creating a legally complex “tax-equity” partnership, said Rachel Chang, a policy analyst at the Center for American Progress. That, however, often sidelined smaller players because with only so much tax liability to go around, investors often focused on more lucrative projects. “The tax-equity market has been to some extent what’s holding renewables back,” said Medina. The IRA made capitalizing on these incentives much easier. Now, a developer who doesn’t have a tax liability can sell their credits to a company that does and get cash to help fund its project. While credits can only be transferred once, Medina and others still anticipate that this streamlined process will make developing clean energy more appealing.

Why Native American tribes struggle to tap billions in clean energy incentives (Reuters) - The Standing Rock Sioux reservation near the border of North and South Dakota has some of America's most powerful winds, with 20 mile an hour (mph) gusts regularly scouring its vast plains. The tribe in 2020 launched a plan to harness that energy with what would be the country's first tribal owned utility-scale wind farm – a project meant to supply jobs, money and electricity to a place where those things are in short supply. The project is at the heart of the Standing Rock Sioux's long-term economic strategy, and revenue from selling power to the regional grid would replace the reservation's casino, which nets around $6 million per year, as the biggest source of revenue. The bipartisan infrastructure bill and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) enacted over the last two years have created enormous opportunities to develop wind and solar projects on tribal lands, offering around $14 billion in subsidies and incentives. The IRA also allows tribes and other tax-exempt entities to access the incentives in the form of a direct payment, instead of a typical tax break. But, unlike the wind blowing across the Great Plains, the project is going nowhere fast. Tribes cannot access key incentives for larger clean energy projects until they secure an agreement to connect to the regional electrical grid. That is an expensive process that can take years and requires technical expertise that most tribes lack. Other incentives provided under the legislation expire as early as 2024 and 2026. That could jeopardize a "once in a lifetime opportunity,” according to Cheri Smith, president of the Alliance for Tribal Clean Energy, a nonprofit that is helping tribes develop clean energy. "All of that money isn't going to do its job unless we remove these roadblocks," Smith said. The Standing Rock Sioux’s project is one of around a dozen larger-scale clean energy projects proposed by tribes seeking to take advantage of new federal green energy subsidies, according to Reuters interviews with over two dozen tribal representatives, government officials and industry experts. The projects combined would produce at least 4GW of electricity. Those tribal leaders said half of these projects are slogging through the grid connection queue, with the rest yet to begin the process, reflecting the difficulties small developers face navigating the grid interconnection process and accessing IRA incentives. The tribes interviewed by Reuters say that, unlike their bigger corporate rivals, tribes lack the upfront capital and internal know-how to navigate the regulatory hurdles to building and connecting a major power project to the grid.That means the tribes - who are among the poorest communities in the country - could miss out on a big development opportunity, and the United States could miss out on their substantial potential to generate renewable energy at a time of huge demand for climate-friendly power.

EPA’s proposed carbon rules omit both the peaker problem and the peaker solution | Utility Dive - The EPA completely overlooked co-located battery storage as a “best system of emissions reduction” in its latest proposal to reduce carbon emissions from fossil-fueled power plants. In May, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency released a draft carbon emissions regulatory framework for the nation’s fossil-fueled power plant fleet, and by the early August deadline, a plethora of comments were submitted in response, including comments by Clean Energy Group. The EPA proposed designating both hydrogen co-firing with natural gas and carbon capture and sequestration, or CCS, as “Best Systems of Emissions Reduction,” or BSERs, for coal plants and larger gas-fired power plants. These technologies were chosen because they can be added to a power plant within its fence line. But curiously, the EPA completely overlooked co-located battery storage as a BSER.The strategy of sticking to fence line BSERs was chosen to comply with the U.S. Supreme Court ruling West Virginia v. EPA, a decision handed down in June of 2022 that prevents the EPA from designing rules that require power producers to completely change out their technology and business models. The Supreme Court reasoning for this decision states, “[O]ur traditional interpretation… has allowed regulated entities to produce as much of a particular good as they desire provided that they do so through an appropriately clean (or low-emitting) process.” The message is to keep producing electricity the way you always have, but control emissions. This is clear enough.There is a category of power plant that the EPA chose to exclude from their proposed rules. These are the plants that typically only feed the grid when there are peaks in demand, such as on hot summer afternoons and cold winter mornings. These are called peaking power plants, or “peakers.” The EPA indicated that adding expensive hydrogen co-firing and CCS to peakers does not make effective or economic sense, and they are correct about that. But the EPA then failed to consider the additional BSER designation that does make sense for peakers: co-located battery storage. Batteries can be added to a conventional power plant as a technology that supplies the grid first, using energy it has stored from the grid when overall demand is low and the grid is being powered by cleaner resources.Adding battery storage to a peaker can significantly reduce both carbon emissions (the target of the rule) as well as localized pollution that has significant health and mortality impacts on the surrounding communities. A few characteristics of peaker plants that make them valuable to the grid is their ability to start and stop quickly and to operate at partial load. But these characteristics also make it nearly impossible to control localized nitrogen oxides emissions with current technology. For this reason, peakers are some of the dirtiest plants on the grid. Adding battery storage as a technology can slash these emissions while also complying with West Virginia v. EPA.In addition to dispatching first, batteries can also prevent a peaker from idling (and emitting) while it waits to be called upon because a battery can dispatch instantaneously. Fossil peakers take from 10 minutes to 12 hours to ramp up from “off” to “on and ready,” but a battery is ready instantly. Co-located battery and combustion turbine combinationsannounced for four existing peakers in California are estimated toreduce emissions by 60%. This approach also takes economic advantage of transmission and substation infrastructure that already exists at the peaker plant.

How a strike imperils Detroit's drive to EVs -An imminent strike by the United Auto Workers against Detroit’s automakers could determine whether the electric vehicles that Americans buy in coming years will come from the traditional and homegrown auto industry or from the startups and foreign brands that seek to unseat them.The reason, analysts say, is that several outcomes — a strike or a deal for higher worker wages or both — could force America’s legacy carmakers into tough choices that other nonunionized auto producers don’t have to make. In other words, the UAW negotiations could sway which companies win or lose from a shift away from fossil fuels.The tension between affordable EVs and good wages for union workers is at the heart of a dilemma for President Joe Biden, who is an ardent supporter of both. Biden is in a treacherous spot of supporting EVs as part of his broader climate agenda while counting on union voters in battleground states like Michigan to give him a second term in 2024.Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and Chrysler parent Stellantis NV have until midnight Thursday to find common ground with the UAW on higher wages and other benefits — or face the possibility of walkouts by some or all of their 146,000 union workers.Experts believe a strike is likely. The UAW and the three big U.S. automakers remain far apart on the contours of labor contracts, and UAW President Shawn Fain has dismissed the companies’ offers as inadequate. Underlying worker anxiety: EVs are simpler machines that require fewer hands to build than gasoline-powered vehicles.If factory lines fall idle or if labor costs go too high relative to competitors, traditional U.S. automakers could be forced to delay their offerings or raise prices on their EVs. That, in turn, could create openings for Asian and European competitors or for EV-only makers like Tesla Inc. and Rivian Automotive Inc., to grab customers away.Automakers are “all trying to figure out how to change the menu they offer consumers,” he said. For the unionized automakers, “this strike has the potential to significantly slow the expansion of electric vehicles and that menu.”The UAW has demanded raises of up to 40 percent, shorter hours and the reversal of concessions that they made during the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009, when several automakers were on the brink of bankruptcy. Supporters of autoworkers say satisfied employees are likely more motivated and productive — and are crucial to making vehicles.“The cost of a strike might be high, but the cost of not striking is higher,” is how Fain, the UAW president, puts it.The UAW points to the large profits and big executive compensation packages major U.S. automakers have compiled in recent years.According to a study by the nonprofit Economic Policy Institute, the big three automakers have posted cumulative profits of $250 billion in the last decade, while executive pay grew by 40 percent. The UAW wants those profits to be shared with workers. With skilled workers in high demand, the union is in a strong bargaining position.“It’s important to remember that a just transition requires more than a fuel source replacement,” said J. Mijin Cha, an assistant professor of environmental studies at the University of California, Santa Cruz, who studies labor issues. “An EV transition that leaves workers behind is not a just transition.”

Commentary: A just transition to clean transportation mustn't leave autoworkers behind | Energy News Network - Illinois is at the forefront of an emerging electric vehicle (EV) industry, yet the workers building this new economic engine are under constant threat of being left behind. Our community has been hit hard by the decline of the steel industry. Our neighbors who worked and still live here were left with a toxic legacy after the industry practically disappeared. After the steel mills that once employed thousands of people closed down, the pollution that was left behind has led to higher rates of asthma, cancer, and other respiratory diseases. We now have an opportunity to do it the right way by making a just transition into a clean economy. We can take care of our environment and create good quality union jobs in EV manufacturing right here on the Southeast Side of Chicago where we live and work. There are a number of things that can be done to ensure a just transition to a clean economy for autoworkers. Above all, we need to make sure the state and federal government invest in training programs for workers who are transitioning to new jobs in the clean energy sector. These programs should be designed to ensure workers have the skills they need to succeed in these new jobs. We also need our elected officials to support transitioning our existing automotive manufacturing facilities into building electric vehicles and their parts. Federal funds are available to do this, and Illinois is already a major hub for automotive production. With the right funding and support, Illinois can be a major hub for EV production too. However, some companies are trying to use the transition to EVs to undermine the power of unions and drive down wages and benefits. For too long, corporations have pitted workers against environmental activists, claiming that we can’t have both good jobs and a clean environment. It’s time to put an end to this narrative. We can create good-paying union jobs in the clean energy sector, while also protecting our health and safety. We must push corporations to clean up their pollution and invest in clean energy jobs and make sure that these jobs are good-paying union jobs that provide benefits and security for workers and their families. We must also make sure that the transition is fair. Creating policies that encourage new EV manufacturing plants to unionize will give workers a seat at the table to bargain for fair wages and benefits. We need to make sure that the government creates a level playing field for unions so that they are not discriminated against by employers. The fight for a just transition at the “Big Three” (Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis) is a fight for our entire community because the benefits reach much more than an individual worker at an individual plant. It’s also a fight for our health, our safety, and our future. We must unite and stand together to win this fight. We should also boost investment in electric public transit, EV charging stations, and all green infrastructure that makes EVs more practical and convenient. This will drive demand and support new jobs. Additionally, offering tax credits and incentives for the companies and consumers will encourage more EV manufacturing here in the U.S. The shift to EVs presents an opportunity to lift up workers and build a fairer economy by giving us a voice through union representation while also growing the clean energy sector. The Southeast Side of Chicago is a microcosm of the challenges and opportunities facing this country as we transition to a clean economy. As a union worker and environmental activist, we know that we must unite to fight for a just transition to a clean energy economy because we are fighting for the future of our planet and our communities. It is a fight for good-paying union jobs that can support families and a fight for environmental justice and for a cleaner and healthier future for all.

Green Groups Stand With UAW in Fight to Protect Autoworkers During EV Transition - On the eve of the expiration of the United Auto Workers union's contract and a potential strike Wednesday, climate action groups were among more than 100 civil society organizations on Wednesday calling on the "Big Three" automakers to ensure that a new contract protects workers as the U.S. transitions toward making electric vehicles. Groups including the Center for Biological Diversity, Public Citizen,Sierra Club, and Earthjustice were among those expressing solidarity with nearly 150,000 union autoworkers who are demanding that employees of electric vehicle battery plants being developed by Stellantis, Ford, and General Motors are paid fairly—reflecting the record profits the automakers have reported in recent years."Within the next few years—the span of this next contract—lies humanity's last chance to navigate a transition away from fossil fuels, including away from combustion engines," wrote the groups in an open letter. "With that shift comes an opportunity for workers in the United States to benefit from a revival of new manufacturing, including electric vehicles (EVs) and collective transportation like buses and trains, as a part of the renewable energy revolution.""This transition must center workers and communities, especially those who have powered our economy through the fossil fuel era, and be a vehicle for economic and racial justice," they added. "We are putting you on notice: Corporate greed and shareholder profits must never again be put before safe, good-paying union jobs, clean air and water, and a livable future.""Corporate titans will try to split our movement by presenting us with a false choice. They'll try to argue that building more clean cars is more important than supporting workers. But we know better."With the Biden administration—under the Inflation Reduction Act—poised to invest billions of taxpayer dollars "to boost your companies' transition to electric vehicle manufacturing and component production," the letter reads, the companies must "do right by the workers who have sacrificed to keep your companies profitable."Without meeting the demands of the UAW, the organizations said, the Big Three will be embarking on a "race to the bottom" that continues to exploit workers."We do not have to choose between good jobs and green jobs," Trevor Dolan, industry and workforce policy lead at Evergreen Action, said Wednesday. "Corporate titans will try to split our movement by presenting us with a false choice. They'll try to argue that building more clean cars is more important than supporting workers. But we know better. Our collective movement can only succeed if workers directly benefit from climate action."The groups highlighted the demands of the union, including:

• an end to the industry's unjust tier system for workers, which leaves "tier-two" employees making less than half as much in hourly wages as top-tier employees and with less generous benefits;
• just wage and benefit increases that keep in line with the cost of living;
• the same pay and safety standards for workers in sustainable battery production as under the national agreements; and
• a robust, fair, and just transition into the EV economy with no loss of autoworker livelihood.

The expression of solidarity came ahead of a bargaining update that UAW President Shawn Fain was expected to give prior to the contract deadline.Fain has led the union in demanding a 40% wage increase over four years—noting that compensation for General Motors CEO Mary Barra grew by more than 32% from 2018-22 while the median worker got only a 2.8% raise—cost-of-living increases, and a workweek shortened to 32 hours.

Judges seem to favor Biden rule that curbs emissions and boosts EVs - An effort by the Biden administration to curb tailpipe emissions — the largest source of planet-warming pollution in the country — seems likely to withstand review by a federal appeals court.But another Biden initiative to boost fuel economy standards came in for a rockier reception during arguments Thursday before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.The two lawsuits — along with a third challenge set to be argued Friday — come as the Biden administration stakes much of its climate ambitions on bolstering electric vehicles. That’s sparked opposition from Republican-led states and the oil and gas industry, which accuse federal regulators of overstepping their authority.In the first case, attorneys for conservative challengers argued that EPA rules that tighten tailpipe emissions standards run afoul of West Virginia v. EPA, a 2022 Supreme Court decision that said the agency did not have congressional approval to impose regulations forcing coal-fired plants to switch to renewable sources.“This case is West Virginia all over again,” said Jeffrey Wall, a partner with Sullivan & Cromwell LLP who served as acting solicitor general during the Trump administration. He argued that the entire automobile industry will have to transition to electric vehicles to satisfy the standard.Judges of the D.C. Circuit seemed unconvinced, questioning whether EPA — which has set similar standards for years — was using its power in a new way. West Virginia, said Judge Gregory Katsas, dealt with an EPA rule that redesigned the regulatory scheme for power plants.In the case of the vehicle emissions standards, Katsas said, the Biden administration has simply increased the strength of the regulations.“They’re turning the knob up from a four to an eight,” said the judge, a Trump appointee. “That’s very costly, but it’s not a sharp difference in kind.”Judge Florence Pan said she read flexibility in the standard, noting at least one automaker — Subaru Corp. — does not have EVs but has said that it can comply with the Biden administration’s standards.“There’s evidence that you can comply with it without electrification,” said Pan, a Biden appointee. Wall argued that EPA is wielding power so as to force the transition to electric vehicles. But he said lawmakers have not granted the agency that level of authority.

House passes bill targeting California’s EV mandate - The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday passed a bill targeting California’s efforts to phase out gas-powered cars. The legislation, which passed the House 222-190, would bar states from limiting the sales of gas-powered cars and rescind any federal approvals for states to do so that were issued since the start of 2022. While the vote was largely along party lines, eight Democrats voted with Republicans in favor of the bill. They are Reps. Yadira Caraveo (N.M.), Jim Costa (Calif.), Henry Cuellar (Texas), Donald Davis (N.C.), Jared Golden (Maine), Brian Higgins (N.Y.), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.) and Gabe Vasquez (N.M.) The bill does not explicitly mention California. However, under the Clean Air Act, the state can pursue clean car rules that are stricter than those from the federal government if they get permission from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Last year, the EPA reinstated a waiver allowing a California rule aimed at limiting vehicular pollution to take effect. Since then, the state has also eyed a complete phaseout of new sales of gas-powered cars to increase electric vehicle usage. Other states often adopt California’s rules, giving them additional power beyond the state’s borders. Despite its House passage, the Republican-led legislation is not expected to advance or become law. It would face opposition in the Democratic-led Senate, and the White House recently released a statement outlining its opposition. “The Administration strongly opposes passage of H.R. 1435,” read the statement, which stopped short of an explicit veto threat. It said the bill would “restrict the ability of California and its citizens to address its severe air pollution challenges.” Nevertheless, the bill represents another point where Republicans can criticize the Biden administration as energy policies — particularly as they pertain to household items — is an area they have honed in on. “Restrictive government mandates isn’t how we’re going to lead the next hundred years, yet, that’s what EPA and California are trying to do,” House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) said. The bill’s passage comes at a time when auto workers are set to strike. The shift to electric vehicles has been one area of discontent, as the union has accused automakers of using the transition to electric vehicles to undercut wages. Former President Trump has seized on these concerns, railing against electric vehicles as he looks to win over voters in the swing state of Michigan, where auto manufacturing is a major industry.

AEA Joins Coalition to Save Our Cars - The American Energy Alliance has proudly joined the Save Our Cars Coalition along with 31 other national or state-based organizations. The coalition will fight to preserve and expand consumer choice in the selection of cars and trucks and ensure that all Americans will continue to benefit from them, as they have for more than a hundred years.The Biden administration and California Governor Gavin Newsom have launched two different regulatory programs directed at gradually eliminating the sales of gasoline-powered cars and mandating the sale of electric vehicles.The Save Our Cars Coalition will alert and educate the public to the threats posed by these and other harmful regulatory programs adding more to the price tag of vehicles – which are already at record highs – and eventually eliminating gas-powered cars and trucks altogether.The coalition launches just as lawmakers in the House of Representatives are expected to vote on a bill that would prevent California from banning gas-powered cars and trucks. The American Energy Alliance will score that important legislation on our American Energy Scorecard.AEA President Thomas Pyle issued the following statement: The Biden administration and the State of California want to ban cars and trucks powered by gasoline and diesel and replace them with electric vehicles. Past regulatory efforts have already had an impact on the price of new cars and trucks – which are at record highs. These regulations will make it even harder for people to buy and enjoy a car or truck by making them even more expensive and by reducing the number and types of automobiles available in the market. This is a feature, not a bug, of these rules. In a nation as expansive as the United States, cars are not merely vehicles, they are integral to the American way of life. They play a pivotal role in our daily lives, especially in suburban and rural settings. This modern-day Prohibition would outlaw a product and a value – in this case, gasoline-powered cars and trucks that have created personal mobility on an unprecedented scale – that it cannot persuade people to forego themselves. The simple reality is that this aggressive government assault is intended specifically to make cars and trucks much, much more expensive and therefore available only in much smaller numbers to much wealthier consumers. This is not about the environment; it is about personal freedom and mobility.”

FirstEnergy Initiates Four Miles Upgrade Of 69 kV Transmission Power Line in Portage County, Ohio - FirstEnergy’s subsidiary, American Transmission Systems has started upgrading four miles of a 69 kV transmission power line in Portage County, Ohio, to strengthen the regional transmission system and improve service reliability for about 2,000 Ohio Edison customers. The upgrade from the West Ravenna substation to the Ravenna Substation, through Ravenna and Franklin townships, will not only comprise of replacing the existing wires, hardware and structures with new steel poles, wires and equipment but also improvise equipment at both substations. While the new wires are capable of carrying more electrical load and provide greater customer demand, they can also transmit increased power flow during unplanned service interruptions on other lines in the area. The project anticipated to complete by early 2024 will develop reliability for 1,900 Ohio Edison customers served by the Ravenna Substation.

Palisades nuclear plant to restart in deal with power co-op - – The company that owns the Palisades nuclear plant announced that it will restart the 800-megawatt power plant in a deal with Wolverine Power Cooperative.The facility stands to become the first decommissioned nuclear plant to be fired back up in the entire United States.Holtec International said on Tuesday, Sept. 12, that it entered a long-term power purchase agreement with Wolverine, which committed to buy up to two-thirds of the nuclear energy generated at the facility in Covert Township. Rural electric cooperative project partner Hoosier Energy will purchase the balance.Kelly Trice, president of Holtec’s nuclear generation and decommissioning, said they are thrilled to be in this new partnership. He said it’s a “significant milestone” toward reopening the plant.“The repowering of Palisades ensures Michigan has sufficient energy to meet future demand and mitigate the impact of climate change, while creating hundreds of high-paying Michigan jobs, expanding the local tax base, and unleashing economic opportunity within the region and beyond,” Trice said.He said with support from federal partners, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, the Michigan Legislature, and the local community, this plan “will soon be a reality.”Wolverine provides electricity to rural communities across more than half of the Lower Peninsula from 60% carbon-free sources. Co-op officials said this new agreement will bolster their commitment to provide reliable, affordable, and clean power.“The restart of Palisades offers a practical, long-term solution to electric reliability in our state and aligns with Michigan’s ambitious goals to reduce carbon emissions,” said Eric Baker, Wolverine’s top executive officer.The plant was closed in May last year when its fuel ran out and the owner sold the facility to Holtec. The new owner has now twice applied for federal money to help get the plant operational again.Michigan lawmakers included $150 million toward the effort to restart the Palisades nuclear plant as part of a record $81.7 billion state budget recently passed. The application for federal nuclear program dollars remains pending.

Fukushima nuclear plant operator says first round of wastewater release is complete -- The operator of the wrecked Fukushima nuclear power plant said Monday that it has safely completed the first release of treated radioactive water from the plant into the sea and will inspect and clean the facility before starting the second round in a few weeks. The Fukushima Daiichi plant began discharging the treated and diluted wastewater into the Pacific Ocean on Aug. 24. The water has accumulated since the plant was damaged by a massive earthquake and tsunami in 2011, and the start of its release is a milestone in the plant's decommissioning. The discharge, which is expected to continue for decades until the decommissioning is finished, has been strongly opposed by fishing groups and by neighboring countries. China has banned all imports of Japanese seafood in response, hurting producers and exporters and prompting the Japanese government to compile an emergency relief fund. Groups in South Korea have also fiercely protested, demanding Japan stop the release. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, at summits last week of Southeast Asian countries and the Group of 20 nations, stressed the safety and transparency of the release to win international support and sought the immediate lifting of China's ban. During the 17-day first release, the plant's operator, Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, said it discharged 7,800 tons of treated water from 10 tanks. About 1.34 million tons of radioactive wastewater is stored in about 1,000 tanks at the plant. Plant workers will rinse the pipeline and other equipment and inspect the system over the next few weeks before starting the release of the second round of 7,800 tons stored in 10 other tanks, TEPCO spokesperson Teruaki Kobashi told reporters Monday. All sampling data from seawater and fish since the start of the release have been way below set safety limits, officials said. The International Atomic Energy Agency has been cooperating with Japan and reviewed the safety of the project. It concluded that the release, if carried out precisely as planned, would have a negligible impact on the environment, marine life and human health. On Monday, a team of South Korean experts from the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, under an agreement between South Korea and the U.N. nuclear agency, visited an IAEA office set up at the Fukushima plant to monitor the release and share information, the IAEA said in a statement. The South Korean team has been in Japan for the last two weeks and met with IAEA officials offsite. TEPCO and the government say the wastewater is treated to reduce radioactive materials to safe levels, and then is diluted with seawater to make it much safer than international standards.

Their names appeared on letters urging fracking Ohio’s state parks. They don’t know how. - cleveland.com - Salt Fork Lake, at nearly 3,000 acres, is the centerpiece of Salt Fork State Park. A state board has received multiple requests under a new legal process to frack under the park. And it received thousands of public comments in support of the idea, including from dozens who said they don't know how their names wound up on those comments. The letter from Briella Keep to her state government was simple – Ohio should for the first time allow “responsible” oil and gas exploration under state parks like Salt Fork. But there was one problem. Briella Keep was 9 years old on July 5, the day the letter was sent to the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC), and there’s no way she could have written it, according to her mother, Brittany Keep. . She doesn’t know anything about oil and gas exploration. She lives about 130 miles away from Salt Fork. Neither Briella nor her mother have ever visited. Brittany Keep has no clue how her phone number, her daughter’s email address, or their home address, wound up on a letter touting “opportunities for economic development and the creation of family-sustaining jobs” in Ohio. “This is not OK,” Brittany Keep said. “She definitely did not submit that draft.” The Keeps are among the dozens of Ohioans who say they believe their names were used without permission in a flood of public comments urging the newly formed commission to allow fracking for oil and natural gas in Salt Fork and other state parks and protected lands, an investigation from Cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer has found. Thousands of pro-fracking comments barraged the inbox of the commission, which will decide in the coming months whether to free mineral rights under state lands for leasing and bidding from oil and gas drillers. One set of those form letters traces back to an entity that advocates for the natural gas industry. The nonprofit Consumer Energy Alliance has previously been accused of using citizens’ names on government petitions and public comments without their permission in Wisconsin in 2014, in Ohio in 2016, and in South Carolina in 2018. The alliance denied any wrongdoing, saying that it uses a digital trail to confirm that the names submitted for the form letters through an online portal are authentic. Cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer have interviewed 35 citizens who say they didn’t write, send, or even know about letters sent in their name urging the state to allow for drilling at state parks. Several said they didn’t know what fracking means – the process of freeing methane from shale thousands of feet underground using water, sand and chemicals at high pressure, technically known as hydraulic fracturing. Others were appalled by the letters written using their names. Three other people wrote to the commission in early August, in emails obtained by public records request, to say their names were used without consent and asking staff to remove them from the record. “I am not in support of fracking and have never pledged to be,” said Justin Watkins, of Columbus, after he was told about a pro-fracking comment from the Consumer Energy Alliance sent in his name. Opponents of fracking in state parks like the Ohio Environmental Council and the grassroots Save Ohio Parks say letters matching the boilerplate letters should be stripped from the record. They say the comments distort the picture of who wants undeveloped nature sold to the fossil fuel industry, and they undermine a public comment process required by law. The commission will soon decide whether to open Salt Fork, Wolf Run State Park, Zepernick Wildlife Area, and Valley Run Wildlife Area, all in Eastern Ohio, for oil and gas exploration. Ohio Department of Natural Resources spokesman Andy Chow said the commission is aware of the “concerns” about public comments that were submitted. He said anyone who believes a comment was submitted without their knowledge or permission should alert the commission, which will remove it from the record. But he declined to comment on how anyone whose name was used without their knowledge could be expected to know as much.

Top Dem, environmentalists call for probe of comments urging fracking in Ohio state parks - – Two environmental advocacy organizations and the ranking Ohio House Democrat demanded concrete actions, investigative and otherwise, in response to dozens of Ohioans saying their names were used without their knowing permission on letters to regulators urging fracking in state parks. Cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer on Sunday reported that 38 people said their names were used without knowing consent in public comments to the Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission. They included an older blind woman and the mother of a 9-year-old girl whose name appeared on the troves of pro-fracking submissions, which urge the state to “responsibly” lease rights to minerals under state parks to oil and gas drillers.In a statement, Roxanne Groff, a steering committee member of Save Ohio Parks, a grassroots organization that formed to oppose fracking in state parks enabled by a new state law, said her organization noticed “anomalies” with hundreds of pro-fracking comments and brought it to the commission’s attention two months ago. Those comments, as was reported, trace back to the Consumer Energy Alliance, a Houston-based nonprofit that advocates for the oil and gas industry.“The Commission must strike these comments from the record,” Groff said. “Anything less makes a mockery of the public engagement process.”Molly Jo Stanley, the Southeast Ohio regional director for the Ohio Environmental Council, said the organization advocated for administrative rules allowing for transparency and public comments to ensure Ohioans have a fair say on the fate of state lands.“But we did not imagine their voices could be drowned out by hundreds of allegedly fake comments coordinated by out-of-state oil and gas interests. This is unacceptable,” she said. “The OEC and Save Ohio Parks call on the Commission to halt decision-making on all leasing nominations until these comments are investigated and the public record is corrected.”House Minority Leader Allison Russo, the ranking House Democrat from Upper Arlington, said in a statement that a public comment process should reflect “actual input” from the public.“Any allegations of widespread misuse of individual’s names and opinions in these public comments should be immediately investigated by both [the Ohio Department of Natural Resources] and the Attorney General,” she said.“The notion of drilling and fracking on our pristine state parks is extreme already. Allowing the approval process to be overrun by potential fraud is unacceptable, and the commission cannot passively stand by and allow any of the nominations to be approved until further investigation.”Bethany McCorkle, a spokeswoman for Yost, said she would look into whether anyone has reached out to the attorney general on the matter.Of the 38 public comments whose authors disputed their provenance, 28 trace back to a form letter on the website of the Consumer Energy Alliance. The nonprofit receives dues from its members, which include a broad swath of oil and gas companies, and lobbies for policies that benefit the industry. Through spokesman Bryson Hull, the Alliance said it doesn’t use anyone’s name without permission. Rather, it finds people on marketing sites like “win.click2win4life.com” and from there prompts them to agree to allow their name to be used.

Disputed public comments urging fracking under Ohio parks should lead to probes, reforms - and prosecution, if merited: editorial By the Editorial Board, cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer --The First Amendment rightly covers all sorts of speech -- including, in today’s world, the deluge of carbon-copy “comments” public officials, politicians and regulatory bodies are used to getting, thanks to the many well-oiled public relations, advocacy and lobbying firms that specialize in such campaigns and solicit such responses. But the complaints from dozens of Ohioans who told cleveland.com’s Jake Zuckerman that they had no knowledge of -- nor agreement with -- the pro-fracking comments recently submitted in their names to the Ohio Oil & Gas Land Management Commission must, and are, leading to questions. Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost rightly responded quickly to Zuckerman’s story, saying Monday he’d ordered subpoenas into the matter, seeking to probe how the comments originated. Yost noted that, even if no crime can be found to have been committed, the situation reveals other weaknesses, if people’s actual beliefs are being mischaracterized, in effect violating their personal identity rights and degrading the purpose of public comments open to all. “Whether this is a criminal act or not is less the point than, this can’t be good for participatory democracy,” Yost said, as quoted by Zuckerman. “This can’t be the way things work. Because then everything would be an illusion.” The oil and gas commission is currently deliberating whether to lease land for horizontal fracturing, or fracking -- a process using a high-pressure slurry of sand, water and chemicals to drill horizontally through rocks to get at high-quality petroleum products -- beneath such iconic parks as Salt Fork State Park near Cambridge, Ohio’s largest and one of its most scenic and historic parks. Also under review for approved fracking leases are Wolf Run State Park, Zepernick Wildlife Area, and Valley Run Wildlife Area, all also in eastern Ohio, Zuckerman reports. One signatory of a July 5 letter favoring the fracking was Briella Keep, a 9-year-old girl from Kinsman, Ohio, in Trumbull County. She told Zuckerman she had no idea how her name, her mother’s phone number and their address ended up on the email letter submitted at 10:10:45 a.m. And not just Briella was upset - her mother was, too.That the letter was part of a campaign was evident by the deluge of identical letters submitted to the commission at about the same time -- more than 150 in the 15 seconds before Briella’s letter landed.Zuckerman reports that more than 1,000 of these letters trace to the Consumer Energy Alliance, a dark-money group formed in 2006 that advocates for oil and gas development. Zuckerman reported that the Houston, Texas-based nonprofit “has previously been accused of using citizens’ names on government petitions and public comments without their permission in Wisconsin in 2014, in Ohio in 2016, and in South Carolina in 2018.” Gov. Mike DeWine suggested that taking down the disputed letters was likely about all that could be done. But it’s important for public confidence in this process that the state and its oil and gas commission do more than just the minimum. That includes new authentication procedures, including the new “public comments portal where people can directly submit their comments to the website with additional authentication tools” that the commission has said it is creating. New procedures should also include notification to all commenters that comments have been received in their names.

Ohio AG investigating disputed public comments urging fracking in state parks - The Ohio Attorney General is investigating allegations of falsified public comments sent to state regulators urging fracking for natural gas in state parks. An investigation bycleveland.com and the Plain Dealer found that dozens of Ohioans believe their names were used on these letters without their permission.Earlier this year, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine signed a new lawrequiring state agencies to move forward with requests to drill under state-owned property.The Oil and Gas Land Management Commission quickly wrote rules for this process and has received at least 13 proposals, called nominations, to drill for gas in eastern and southeastern Ohio, including the Zepernick Wildlife Area in Columbiana County, Valley Run Wildlife Area in Carroll County, Wolf Run State Park in Noble County, and Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County.The nominations to frack Salt Fork include at least 25 well pads outside the park boundary. By law, the state keeps the names of companies confidential during the application process. Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is the process of drilling deep underground and injecting millions of gallons of water, sand and chemicals at high pressure to fracture shale formations and extract natural gas. Horizontal lines would extend from drilling well pads just outside state park boundaries for miles under state parks and other properties. Fracking is associated with health impacts like childhood lymphoma, asthma, andpremature death in the elderly, among other health impacts.The commission received thousands of public comments about these proposals on its website. The Allegheny Front reviewed these letters and found most pro-fracking comments were form letters.The Cleveland news outlets identified 38 people who disputed letters that were sent in their name by the Consumer Energy Alliance, a nonprofit funded in part by the oil and gas industry. One letter was purportedly submitted by a 9-year-old girl, and several by people who said they don’t even know what fracking is. “These letters should not be part of the decision-making process, and we’ve asked them [the commission] to strike these letters from the record,” said Cathy Cowan Becker of the volunteer group Save Ohio Parks. Becker wasn’t surprised by the findings. She said her group had a bank of volunteers call 435 people whose names were signed to pro-fracking public comments. While they could not reach most of those people, they did talk with some of them, “Our volunteers talked to 97 people who said they did not submit that letter,” Cowan Becker said.The commission is part of the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, which regulates oil and gas activity in the state.

While J.D. Vance salivates, Ohio's state parks fall prey to drillers - The Columbus Dispatch – by Randi Pokladnik -- A guest column by Sen. J.D. Vance was recently published in the Marietta Times in which he tried to convince the residents of Southeast Ohio that fracking the Utica shale was going to be their road to prosperity. You could almost picture senator salivating over the Utica shale under Ohio. Ohio’s state parks have fallen prey to anonymous out-of-state drillers who are currently nominating entire state parks like Salt Fork and Wolf Run for fracking. Recently, this procedure has been shown to be tainted by a questionable public comment process. Unlike the senator, those of us who were born and raised in Appalachia realize having abundant resources does not translate to a booming local economy or long-term economic gains. McDowell County in Southern West Virginia is a prime example of what happens when an area is treated like a mineral colony by politicians and industry. For decades the county led the nation in coal production; today it is one of the poorest counties in the nation. Some landowners in Southeast Ohio have made considerable money from leasing large acreages, but for most, the promised economic gains have not materialized. A 2021 report from the Ohio River Valley Institute revealed that; much of the profits made from fracking does not stay in the local economy; workers are often from out of state; and the most fracked counties actually lost populations and jobs.A drive through the county I live in, Harrison County, provides visual evidence of that false promise of growth. Unlike the Scio Pottery which at one time employed over 1300 local citizens, the million-dollar fractionator in the village of Scio employs less than 70 Ohioans.But the fossil fuel industry has made record profits. In 2022 the top five fossil fuel companies had pre-tax profits of $264.3 billion. Additionally, “fossil fuels benefited from record subsidies of $13 million a minute in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund, despite being the primary cause of the climate crisis.” Unprecedented weather events this past summer have been exacerbated by the climate crisis. Scientific studies show that oil and gas fields are major methane emitters driving the climate crisis: the Marcellus shale is ranked the number one methane bomb in the world. The fossil fuel industry has known for years that burning coal, oil and gas will result in a warming planet, yet Senator Vance tells us we must increase our reliance on the greenhouse gas methane. Vance urges us to invest in more fracking infrastructure which means more destruction of our land, air and water. But, as the world transitions to a low-carbon economy, stranded fossil-fuel assets will result in major losses for investors. It is time for Appalachia to invest in the cheapest energy choice today: renewable energy. We can watch another “boom and bust” fossil fuel era impoverish the region or we can move into the future with a new vision of economic development that does not require destroying our beautiful state parks, endangering our health, or scorching our planet.

Gas leak shuts down Cleveland intersection (WOIO) - Construction workers cutting concrete hit a gas line in downtown Monday afternoon. This happened on E. 12th Street between Chester and Euclid Avenues. There are no injuries and the gas company is aware of the problem. Drivers are asked to avoid the intersection. Firefighters on scene said the gas has been turned off and there is no threat to public safety.

Gulfport's 4-Mile Utica Wells Producing 2.5+ Bcfe per 1,000 Ft | Marcellus Drilling News - Gulfport Energy, the third-largest driller in the Ohio Utica Shale (by the number of wells drilled), emerged from bankruptcy in May 2021 with a new board and top management. In January of this year, the company appointed a new CEO, John Reinhart, the former President and CEO of M-U driller Montage Resources Corporation before that company was gobbled up by Southwestern Energy (see Marcellus Veteran John Reinhart Joins Gulfport Energy as CEO). The company recently issued its second quarter update. The news coming from that update that caught our eye was that Gulfport is beginning to drill wells in Ohio’s Marcellus layer in addition to the Utica (see Gulfport Drilling Marcellus (Not Utica) Wells in Belmont Co., OH). However, Enverus (formerly Drillinginfo), one of the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS platforms, noticed another newsworthy item coming from Gulfport’s update: three of Gulfport’s Utica wells in Monroe County are 4-mile wells, and they are producing more than 2.5 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) per 1,000 feet per day–significantly higher than the company’s average of 1.5 Bcfe/d.

Range Resources, Other Shale Drillers Chasing 4-Mile Wells | Marcellus Drilling News - Last week, MDN told you about Gulfport Energy drilling three Utica Shale wells in Ohio (with a fourth underway) that are massive 4-mile wells (see Gulfport’s 4-Mile Utica Wells Producing 2.5+ Bcfe per 1,000 Ft). Gulfport is not the only company working on these super-long wells. According to the Wall Street Journal, Range Resources has its sights set on drilling 4-mile wells, too.

Oil Output Down but Strong for Columbiana County Wells – Youngstown Business Journal – Oil production in Columbiana County cooled during the second quarter compared with the previous period’s record numbers, but output remains steady, data show. Horizontal wells across the county yielded a combined 142,669 barrels of oil over a 90-day period during the three months ended June 30 – a nearly 39% drop from the previous quarter – according to the latest production data from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. All of the oil-producing wells are owned by EAP Ohio, a subsidiary of Houston-based Encino Energy Partners. Still, the latest numbers reflect consistent output from four EAP oil-producing wells in Hanover Township. Together, these wells, located at the Mountz well pad, produced 138,164 barrels. The most productive of these wells was the Mountz 1H, which yielded 40,670 barrels of oil over 90 days. Last quarter, the four EAP wells shattered previous oil production figures for this neck of the Utica/Point Pleasant shale formation, indicating the potential of an emerging oil window in Columbiana County. During the first quarter, just those wells collectively produced 228,058 out of a total 233,390 barrels from all of the wells in the county. “Encino’s second pad is online, and we are currently working on a third pad in Columbiana County,” spokeswoman Jackie Stewart said in a statement. “We continue to be cautiously optimistic about the northern Utica play and look forward to seeing ongoing growth and investment in the region.” In all, EAP wells throughout Ohio produced more than 3.5 million barrels of oil during the second quarter, or 51% of the state’s total output. Much of this oil is found south of Columbiana County in Carroll, Harrison and Guernsey counties, data show. Overall oil production throughout Ohio increased 5.5% during the quarter to more than 6.9 million barrels compared with the previous quarter. Traditionally, the northern portion of the play is associated with natural gas, not oil. During the fourth quarter of 2022, for example, the county’s wells produced just 5,084 barrels of oil. However, the most recent data show that wells in the county are still pumping relatively strong amounts of natural gas too, although production was down from the first quarter. Horizontal wells in Columbiana County owned by EAP, Hilcorp Energy Co., Geopetro LLC and Pin Oak Energy Partners produced a total of 20.8 billion cubic feet of natural gas, down from 27.5 billion cubic feet – a 24% drop from the first quarter, data show. The highest volume gas well in the county during the period was EAP’s Maskaluk 1H well in Washington Township, which produced 1.05 billion cubic feet of gas during the period, according to ODNR. EAP reported its wells yielded 10.1 billion cubic feet of gas, while Hilcorp reported its wells produced 10.5 billion cubic feet during the quarter. Geopetro said its wells produced 236.2 million cubic feet of gas, and Pin Oak reported zero production. In all, natural gas production across Ohio fell 2.8% from 551.8 billion cubic feet during the first quarter to 536.3 billion cubic feet in the second quarter.

Utica Shale Academy reveals new welding facility in Salineville, Ohio -(WKBN) — The Utica Shale Academy is ecstatic to reveal its new state-of-the-art welding facility. Ascent Resources Welding Lab will serve the students for the upcoming school year. Welders are hard at work perfecting their craft. “We were having students struggle with the elements of welding, so we came up with the idea to have an outdoor welding facility,” said William Watson, Superintendant of Utica Shale Academy. Students will spend two hours each day at the lab and receive welding certification upon graduation. The academy says there’s a shortage of welders right now. “You use welding in almost every single industry of the trades,” said Brandon Eastek, of the academy. “My father owned a trucking company. You have to weld things, you have to fix things.” Students just learned about welding safety. The welders have a special outfit that consists of a welding hat, cap, glasses, coat and gloves. “Anytime you build things you gotta be ready for economic growth, and there’s no better way to build things then by welding them together,” Watson said. A donation from Ascent Resources helped make the lab possible.

Promise of Appalachia's shale fields remains, Shale Crescent official says - Greg Kozera of Shale Crescent USA speaks at a Sept. 11 Society of Plastics Engineers event. Fairlawn, Ohio — The gas-rich Appalachian region of Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia continues to attract businesses looking for lower feedstock costs and shorter supply chains.

Pa. buffer bill stalls as fracking pad neighbors suffer - Kimberly Laskowsky flipped through pages of notes she’s kept through years of deteriorating health. She started chronicling after EQT’s Gahagan well pad was built 850 feet away in West Bethlehem Township. Laskowsky recorded 374 migraines in one month after the drilling began in 2019. “Like someone stabbing my head with a knife,” she wrote. In Pennsylvania, state law allows drilling up to 500 feet from a home. Across the commonwealth, nearly 1.5 million people live within a half mile of active oil and gas wells, compressors or processing stations. In Washington County, the most heavily fracked in the state, more than half of residents live within that radius. Drilling near homes occurs against the backdrop of mounting scientific evidence which correlates fracking and health problems. Last month, joint studies by the Pennsylvania Department of Health and the University of Pittsburgh found a 5-to-7-fold greater risk of developing lymphoma among children within one mile of a well. A separate study found that people with asthma are four to five times more likely to have an asthma attack if they live near wells even after fracking is complete, during production. Toxic hydrocarbons commonly linked to fracking like benzene are listed by the Environmental Protection Agency to cause dizziness, headaches, anemia and neurological disorders.Last year, researchers from Yale School of Public Health found that children within 2 kilometers of at least one fracking well were two to three times more likely to develop leukemia and suggested that existing setback distances “are insufficiently protective of children’s health.” In 2020, the 43rd Statewide Grand Jury found that the current state setback rule barring drilling within 500 feet of homes is “dangerously close” and inadequate for the protection of public health, recommending a 2,500 foot buffer. “An increase in the setback, to 2,500 feet, is far from extreme, but would do a lot to protect residents from risk.”The report concluded: “The closer you live to a gas well, compressor station or pipeline the more likely you are to suffer ill effects.” Josh Shapiro, then the attorney general, pledged to implement the report’s recommendations during his successful campaign for governor last year.Despite this, legislative efforts to keep drilling at bay have stalled in Harrisburg. And in the absence of a more restrictive state setback law, small municipalities like Marianna and their residents have been left to fend for themselves.

14 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Sep 4 – 10 | Marcellus Drilling News -- New shale permits issued for Sep 4 – 10 in the Marcellus/Utica continued to be in the crapper. There were 14 new permits issued last week, up 1 from 13 issued two weeks ago, and down from the 16 issued three weeks ago. Not so long ago we routinely saw 30+ issued each week. Last week’s permit tally included 8 new permits in Pennsylvania, no new permits in Ohio, and 6 new permits in West Virginia. The top permittee for the week was Antero Resources, which received six permits in WV. ANTERO RESOURCES | BUTLER COUNTY | MARSHALL COUNTY | PENNENERGY RESOURCES | PENNSYLVANIA GENERAL ENERGY |RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | TIOGA COUNTY (PA) | TYLER COUNTY | WASHINGTON COUNTY | WETZEL COUNTY

Has natural gas production peaked in Appalachian Basin? - — Since 2008, 22 counties in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia have been the source of 40% of the nation’s natural gas — but now this boom in natural gas extraction might be over. Using data from the federal Energy Information Administration, the Ohio River Valley Institute concluded that the natural gas industry in the Marcellus and Utica shale region hit peak production in 2022, levels that won’t be equaled again for decades. This means the economic growth and local prosperity promised by the Shale Gas boom will likely never come. The report, an update of a similarly damning 2021 report, is being criticized by industry sources who called the data cherry-picked and off-base. They say it ignores all the good the industry has done in local communities. “What we would tell (them) to do is look at the DNR data, which is actually reported data, not a guess, not an estimate, not a projection,” Mike Chadsey, public relations director for the Ohio Oil and Gas Association, told Farm and Dairy. What the report says Gathered from the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2023, the report from the environmental think tank states that natural gas production in the 22 gas-rich counties in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia reached its peak in 2022 and won’t reach the same amount until 2045. As a result, by the year 2050, the report states, “Appalachia’s share of U.S. natural gas is expected to decline… to 37.5%.” Instead, production in the Permian and Haynesville basins in the south and southwest will surpass Appalachia, becoming the next top dog in the country for producing natural gas. One of the reasons why is location, according to Sean O’Leary, the author of the report. Both basins are on the border of the Gulf of Mexico and have easy access to export terminals. The Appalachian region has to transport natural gas via pipelines to export terminals on either the East Coast or elsewhere. Another reason natural gas production is expected to drop is the Russia-Ukraine war, which spurred countries in Europe and elsewhere to move from natural gas toward renewable energy. Natural gas power plants in the U.S. are also being retired as quickly as they are being built, which will equal minimal domestic growth moving forward. Even when natural gas production was rising, the report says employment, income and population numbers in the region declined. Between the years of 2008 to 2019, gross domestic product, or GDP, in the 22 most active gas-producing counties in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, grew three times more than the GDP of the United States and more than four times the rate of Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia as a whole. However, employment, income and population did not see the same success as GDP. According to the report, federal data shows that the number of full-time jobs between 2008 to 2019 in the most fracked counties dropped 2.1% — worse than the combined states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, which saw a job increase of 3.8%. The population also fell by 4.6%, while the combined population in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia climbed 2.1%. The report attributed this massive growth in GDP, but lack of growth in employment, income and population to the fact that “natural gas extraction is one of the least labor-intensive activities in the U.S. economy with less than 10 cents of every dollar earned allocated to labor.” Chadsey, of OOGA, says to disregard federal data and look at the quarterly state production data operators turn in to the Ohio Department of Natural Resources Division of Oil and Gas, which he says shows “production continues to go up, quarter over quarter, year over year.” A missive from Energy In Depth, an online publication run by the Independent Petroleum Association of America, points to a 2023 Cleveland State University and JobsOhio study that shows oil and gas has invested more than $100 billion into Ohio’s economy, “acting as an essential economic lifeblood to the Buckeye State.” Mandi Risko, with Energy In Depth, said ORVI ignored critical factors supporting growth, like millions of dollars in impact fees paid by operators in Pennsylvania and ad valorem, or property taxes, paid in Ohio. She added that the report’s “cherry-picked data is hardly reflective of what the Appalachian communities have experienced” and “leaves out the what the poverty and economic rates would be without oil and gas.”

Dominion to seek air permit for proposed Chesterfield gas plant - Virginia Mercury - Dominion Energy’s plans to build a new natural gas plant in Chesterfield will require a state permit for major new sources of emissions, state air quality regulators said Wednesday. Mike Dowd, the Department of Environmental Quality’s director of air and renewable energy, told the State Air Pollution Control Board the plant will require a prevention of significant deterioration, or PSD, permit. Over the summer, Dominion revived plans for a new natural gas plant that would be sited adjacent to its fossil fuel facility in Chesterfield County, saying the facility is needed to meet a projected increase in electricity demand from data centers and electric vehicles. Because the new units are intended to generate power when the grid is experiencing peak demand, they are called peakers. “We need a balanced energy mix with renewables and always ready natural gas working hand in hand.”The plans call for four simple cycle combustion turbines capable of generating 250 megawatts of electricity each. Natural gas would be the primary fuel source, with oil and possibly hydrogen as backups. There would also be six generators and eight oil storage tanks that would be able to provide fuel for about seven days. Dowd said the storage is needed in case a cold snap like the one experienced throughout Virginia around Christmas 2022 limits the availability of natural gas for power plants. “That’s why they say they need the oil, because gas can get curtailed,” Dowd said.The units would be equipped with several emission controls, including nitrogen oxide burners. With the controls, the peaker plant would produce 81.6 tons of particulate matter, 344.9 tons of nitrogen oxide and 2.2 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per year, among other emissions. Even with the new emissions from the peaker plant, DEQ said Dominion’s closure of its coal-fired units at its existing plant on May 31 will result in a net reduction in particulate matter and nitrogen oxides from both locations, although it will still lead to an increase in carbon dioxide equivalents.

Williams CEO says not interested in utility companies bought by Enbridge (Reuters) - U.S. energy firm Williams Companies (WMB.N) is not interested in three utilities recently bought by Canada's pipeline operator Enbridge (ENB.TO) as the return rate would be too low, Chief Executive Alan Armstrong said on Wednesday. Enbridge said this week it will buy East Ohio Gas, Questar Gas, and Public Service Co of North Carolina from Dominion Energy (D.N) for $14 billion including debt, creating North America's largest natural gas provider and doubling its gas distribution business. "When we look at our use of equity in a transaction like that ... that kind of lower return does not make much sense for us," Armstrong said at the Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference in New York. The natural gas pipeline company already has high-yielding investment opportunities, Armstrong said. Many companies are taking advantage of grant funding from the Department of Energy for electrification projects at facilities, including ports and airports. That, along with the electrification of vehicles, are expected to drive power demand, the CEO said. "Natural gas, and in particular pipeline and storage capacity, will be the beneficiary of that continued electrification," Armstrong said. The shift away from coal to gas for power generation in the states where Williams operates will result in the need for an additional 4.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of gas, he added. Considering the volume of gas it transports and the pipeline capacity it has, and not the price of natural gas, Williams expects strong revenue growth from its existing and future projects with robust dividend yields, Armstrong said. Front-month gas futures for October delivery fell 7.8 cents, or 3%, on Wednesday morning, to $2.504 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since Aug. 23. Williams is working on increasing its pipeline network to transport even more gas to U.S. customers, including producers of liquefied natural gas, Armstrong said.

US natgas prices jump 5% to one-week high on drop in daily output (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% to a one-week high on Tuesday on a big drop in daily output and forecasts for warmer weather and higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Traders noted that prices jumped despite ongoing feedgas reductions to Freeport LNG's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas over the past several days. Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 13.5 cents, or 5.2%, to settle at $2.743 per million British thermal units, their highest close since Sept. 1 for a third day in a row. That was the front-month's biggest daily percentage gain since late August and put the contract up for a fourth day in a row for the first time since early August. "The catalyst for the (price) move remains to be seen," said analysts at Gelber & Associates, an energy consultancy, noting it may have been caused by "speculative flows" or rumors of possible errors in the amount of gas in storage in the U.S. South Central region, which includes Texas. During a brutal heat wave lasting much of the summer, utilities last week pulled gas from storage in the South Central region for a seventh week in a row, the longest streak during the summer since 2017, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Utilities usually inject gas into storage during the summer and pull it out during the winter to meet peak heating demand. "The difference between reported and actual storage (in the South Central region) may be enough to justify buying gas at current levels to immediately inject it and thereby restore storage numbers to more reasonable levels," Gelber noted. LSEG said average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states has held at 102.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, the same as the record high hit in August. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about 2.9 bcfd to a preliminary 12-week low of 99.8 bcfd on Tuesday. That would be the biggest one-day decline since December, but energy traders noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA projected U.S. gas production and demand would rise to record highs in 2023, while U.S. power consumption will ease from last year's record high. Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly near normal during the Sept. 12-18 period before turning hotter than usual from Sept. 19 through at least Sept. 27. But with seasonally cooler weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, will slide from 99.7 bcfd this week to 96.2 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have eased to an average of 12.2 bcfd so far in September, down from 12.3 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas fell to a preliminary eight-month low of 9.1 bcfd due mostly to a reduction over the weekend at Freeport from around 1.8 bcfd last week to an average of 0.5 bcfd over the past four days, according to LSEG data.

Vern Buchanan says oil spill at SeaPort Manatee likely intentional dumping - U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan said more than 19,000 gallons of oil were likely dumped into waters near SeaPort Manatee.After touring the waters with the Coast Guard, the Longboat Key Republican said there’s no sign of a continued problem such as an oil leak. But that has left officials suspicious someone dumped oil into the water last week as Hurricane Idalia impacted the region.“Our local waterways, environment and marine life are incredibly important to area residents and Florida’s tourism-based economy,” Buchanan said.“With no evidence pointing to any infrastructure failures or pipeline leaks so far, it looks increasingly likely that someone may have dumped this oil and is failing to come forward. Whether an accident or purposeful, any potential bad actors must be held accountable for putting our waterways at risk. Just as water quality is critical to our way of life, Port Manatee is essential to our area’s economy, and I’m committed to ensuring both are safeguarded from future spills.”Buchanan toured the impacted area with Coast Guard Captain Michael Kahle and SeaPort Manatee Executive Director Carlos Buqueras. Ahead of the tour, the Congressman provided an update that most of the oil found in the waters had been removed.The Coast Guard has removed some 19,000 gallons of contaminated water from the port, of which there was approximately 3,500 gallons of heavy, unrefined oil.Buqueras said it only adds to the mystery that the crude ended up in the local waters. The port in the last fiscal year moved 404.6 million gallons of petroleum products, but not unrefined oil.“It’s still too early to define where exactly that heavy fuel came from, because we don’t handle a lot of heavy fuel,” Buqueras said.The Environmental Protection Agency’s National Response Center first received reports on Aug. 31 about an oil spill at the port. Cleanup began the following day. About 97% of known contaminants have been removed at this point, according to the Coast Guard.

Port Manatee starts to recover from a mysterious oil spill | WLRN - SeaPort Manatee is slowly reopening for business following the unexplained oil leak that left over 20,500 gallons of polluted water in its basin two weeks ago. In a coordinated effort, the U.S. Coast Guard, along with the port crew and other pollution responders, were able to successfully remove 99% of the surface oil and water mixture from the area. They also cleaned the oil-contaminated debris that was in the ship hulls and sea walls. The U.S. Coast Guard reported from their X account (formerly known as Twitter) that around 4,000 feet of floating barriers, or boom, were removed from the water. This was the main tool used to soak up the material as well as vacuuming and absorbing. Carlos Busqueras, SeaPort Manatee executive director, expressed his gratitude for the U.S. Coast Guard's swift response and their commitment to resolving the situation as quickly as possible. He pledged transparency with the public and promised to share details as they come up. After analyzing samples from the oil, officials believe some of the leaked material is heavy fuel oil, which is a byproduct of the crude oil refinement process. As of now, no concrete evidence of infrastructure failures — regarding the source of the spill — or pipeline leaks have been reported. Under Capt. Michael Kahle, the U.S. Coast Guard is investigating this case and looking for those responsible. Sarasota Congressman Vern Buchanan toured the facility Friday morning. He emphasized the importance of finding those accountable and stressed that they’ll need to bear the costs for the cleanup operations, especially if this incident was a ‘hit and run’. “Our local waterways, environment, and marine life are incredibly important to area residents and Florida’s tourism-based economy,” Buchanan said in a news release. “It looks increasingly likely that someone may have dumped this oil and is failing to come forward. Whether an accident or purposeful, any potential bad actors must be held accountable for putting our waterways at risk.” Fortunately, officials from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that no immediate harm had been done to fish or wildlife after conducting an endangered species analysis. Environment advocates disagree with this claim and believe that there are, without a doubt, environmental impacts and potential health risks involved in this leak.

VIDEO: Coast Guard Rescues Oil Tanker Crew Member Offshore Texas - The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) announced Wednesday that it rescued a tanker crew member from the water 10 miles offshore Galveston, Texas. “Coast Guard Sector Houston-Galveston command center watchstanders received a distress call on VHF-FM channel 16 at 9.23 am from personnel aboard the tanker vessel Ghibli, stating that a crew member had fallen overboard and was not wearing a life jacket,” the USCG said in a statement posted on its website. “Watchstanders issued an urgent marine information broadcast, diverted an already airborne MH-65 Dolphin helicopter crew from Coast Guard Air Station Houston and directed the launch of a 45-foot Response Boat–Medium crew from Coast Guard Station Galveston,” the USCG added. The helicopter crew located the man, deployed a rescue swimmer to pull him from the water, and transported him to University of Texas Medical Branch Galveston to receive further care, the USCG noted in the statement, adding that the man was “reportedly in stable condition”. “Wearing a life jacket is absolutely crucial,” Travis Addison, Operations Unit Controller at Sector Houston-Galveston, said in the USCG statement. “It was fortunate that our helicopter crew was flying nearby. If not, this case might have ended differently,” he added. A video posted on USCG Heartland’s Twitter page shows the USCG rescue operation taking place. The Ghibli vessel is a crude oil tanker built in 2009 sailing under the flag of Liberia, according to marinetraffic.com, which shows that the vessel is located in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico at the time of writing. On August 10, the USCG revealed that it medevaced two boaters from a construction vessel approximately 20 miles south of Atchafalaya Bay, Louisiana. “Coast Guard Sector New Orleans watchstanders received a medevac request at approximately 11 am from the emergency medical technician aboard the vessel for a passenger experiencing heart related issues,” the USCG said in a statement posted on its site last month. “Sector New Orleans watchstanders then coordinated the launch of a Coast Guard Air Station New Orleans MH-60 Jayhawk helicopter aircrew to assist,” the statement added. “The aircrew arrived on scene, hoisted the two boaters aboard the helicopter and transferred them to awaiting emergency medical services personnel at the University Medical Center in New Orleans. The man was last reported to be in stable condition,” the USCG statement continued. A video of this rescue was also posted on the USCG’s Twitter page.

USA Oil Drillers Push the Limits Sideways -Since the advent of the shale boom, US oil producers have drilled both downward and sideways deep under the earth’s surface. But now that the easiest-to-reach crude has been extracted, those companies are testing the limits of their technology even further by boring more than 3 miles horizontally, elevating both the operational risk and the potential rewards. One in five new wells in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico will rely on subterranean horizontal holes of 3 miles or longer in 2024, double the share this year and up from virtually zero just two years ago, according to research firm Rystad Energy. US producers including Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and Diamondback Energy Inc. say the new technique will be key to future oil output for a US shale-oil industry that’s starting to show its age. The technical advances build on the basic vertical wells that preceded the shale boom and the standard 2-mile sideways wells deployed in most of today’s fields. But adding an extra horizontal mile — or more — ultimately means more complicated and costly projects. For the most part, only bigger players will be comfortable with such extreme drilling, giving the better-funded producers a new leg up and potentially speeding the arrival of peak US oil. “It is a riskier game,” said Mike Holcomb, chief operating officer for Patterson-UTI Energy Inc., one of the biggest US contractors hired to drill longer wells. “If something happens and you lose a lateral, you’ve lost 3 miles of production versus 2.” Following the widespread adoption of techniques like fracking and sideways drilling in the early 2000s, US shale became the world’s leading source of oil growth. Now that the best acreage has been tapped, the shale patch is struggling to keep up. Some explorers trying to more efficiently wring out hard-to-reach hydrocarbons are going so far as to drill wells in zig-zag and U-turn patterns under miles of rock in hopes of getting more bang for their buck. New techniques can sometimes lead to equipment failure: Flexible tubing can at times buckle in the drilling process, and drill bits can wear down deep under the earth’s surface. In addition, if the pockets of oil aren’t exactly where they’d been modeled, a 3-mile well is a costlier outlay for what could ultimately be a dud. Advocates say the longer wells promise lower fixed costs, better productivity and the ability to access oil that might otherwise have been out of reach. “It’s a risk-reward decision, because if something bad happens at 18,000 feet, that’s an expensive mistake,” Kaes Van’t Hof, president of Diamondback, said on a call with analysts. The company has even gone sideways deep under the home of company chief Travis Stice. So far, he said, the results of the longer laterals have been positive. “The drilling guys can do it, there’s no doubt about that.” Pioneer, the largest independent producer in the Permian, has an inventory of more than 1,000 future wells that run at least 15,000 feet horizontally — or about 2.8 miles — and some even exceed 18,000 feet. That’s about 3.4 miles, or the length of 50 football fields. The longer horizontal wells generate more oil, cost less per lateral foot and require fewer vertical holes and fracking workers, Pioneer’s president and incoming chief executive officer, Rich Dealy, said on an August conference call. Servicers, the hired hands of the oil patch, are for the most part eager to take on these kinds of risky, big-ticket jobs. An average 2-mile lateral well costs $6.5 million, all in, compared to around $9 million for a 3-mile lateral well, according to data from Bernstein. Pioneer and Diamondback didn’t say whether they’ve had any problems when they extend the laterals or how much they’ve spent, though Dealy said on the call that the roughly 3-mile laterals result in capital savings of about 15% per foot. Longer horizontals are particularly popular in the Marcellus Shale of the US Northeast as well as the Midland Basin of the Permian in Texas. “It takes more horsepower on the surface to pump,” Thomas Johnston, chief operating officer of ShearFRAC, a drilling technology company. “And it costs more money to put the casing in for the well. So there’s all these extra costs up front.” American drillers have been scouting for years for new ways to extract oil from a stagnating market, including producing in more populated urban areas. Still, the steep drop in output from US shale wells is turning out to be worse than expected, forcing oil drillers to work even harder to keep production from slipping, research firm Enverus said in its latest report. “With the cost inflation, wells are getting more expensive,” said Rystad analyst Alexandre Ramos-Peon. “The only way you can still be making a handsome profit on this is by leveraging all the known techniques to get the most bang out of your buck.” Not everyone is convinced. Last year, Bob Brackett, an analyst at Bernstein, published an investor note titled “Why I don’t like 3-mile laterals.” He argued that the 5% per well cost savings are minor compared to the risk that productivity could worsen as the well goes longer. The third mile in a well suffers a 13% falloff in production per foot, Brackett wrote in September 2022 — and said he has yet to see anything to alter his thesis. “A company could show with actual data that the well cost savings are higher than the productivity” that’s lost, Brackett told Bloomberg News in August. “But no one has yet.” For now, drillers continue to push outward, with some of Pioneer’s wells now nearing four miles. Time will tell how much further drillers can go. “We would always say we’re going to stop when the well tells us to do so,” said Holcomb, the Patterson-UTI executive with more than 40 years of experience in the oil fields. “And then over the years, we’ve learned as we’ve gone, and we’ve continued to push the limits out.”

Amazon will pay an oil company to help it meet climate goals - Amazon is the latest tech giant to buy into the idea of filtering carbon dioxide out of the air as a way to combat climate change. The company is backing an oil giant, Occidental Petroleum,to help it do just that.Amazon announced today that it plans to purchase 250,000 metric tons of carbon removal from Occidental subsidiary 1PointFive. This is the latest in a stream of announcements from Big Tech companies turning to emerging carbon removal technologies to help them meet their climate goals. Sucking CO2 out of the atmosphere is one way to try to undo the damage caused by pollution companies have already created.But much of the carbon removal industry has deep ties to oil and gas.And when companies like Amazon pay to deal with their pollution this way, it doesn’t necessarily stop them from continuing to create more of the pollution by burning fossil fuels. This is the latest in a stream of announcements from Big Tech 1PointFive,the subsidiary of Occidental, has plans to build massive industrial facilities, called direct air capture (DAC) plants, in Texas that are supposed to pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.Amazon says that the CO2 will then be sequestered underground to keep it from escaping back into the atmosphere. Occidental, however, has also used carbon removal to sell what it calls “net-zero oil,” produced by shooting CO2 into the ground in order to push out hard-to-reach oil reserves. The Biden administration has arguably been just as jazzed about carbon removal as tech companies have. The Department of Energy (DOE) chose to fund a project1PointFive is developing at King Ranch in Texas as the site of one of the first “hubs” for direct air capture plants in the US. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law passed in 2021 earmarks $3.5 billion in federal funding for at least four DAC hubs across the US. Last week, Microsoft announced that it would purchase 315,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide removal from another hub the DOE is funding in Louisiana. That project is led by California startup Heirloom and Swiss company Climeworks.Climeworks was one of the first companies in the world to build CO2- sucking industrial plants and has already captured an unspecified amount of CO2 for Microsoft, Stripe, and Shopify at its facility in Iceland. On top of its carbon removal purchase from Occidental’s 1PointFive,Amazon also said today that it is “making an investment” in another California-based DAC company called CarbonCapture that will provide Amazon with credits worth 100,000 tons of carbon removal.CarbonCapture is building another big direct air capture plant in Wyoming.

Nearly 400 Scientists Tell Biden to 'Embrace Demands of the March to End Fossil Fuels' -- In an open letter published Wednesday, around 400 scientists implored U.S. President Joe Biden to endorse the demands of this weekend's March to End Fossil Fuels in New York—which include halting new fossil fuel projects, ending oil and gas drilling on public lands, and declaring a climate emergency.Noting that "on your first day in office, you issued an executive order pledging that it is 'the policy of my administration to listen to the science' in tackling the climate crisis," the letter's signers lamented that "more than two years later, it's clear that the crisis is spiraling out of control and the policies of your administration with regard to fossil fuels fail to align with what the science tells us must happen to avert calamity.""With the climate crisis raging all around us—in the form of fires, floods,hurricanes, drought, heatwaves, crop failures, and more—we call on you directly, clearly, and unequivocally to stop enacting policies contrary to science and do what is needed to address the crisis," the signatories added.The scientists called on Biden to:

• Stop federal approval for new fossil fuel projects and repeal permits for climate bombs like the Willow project and the Mountain Valley Pipeline;
• Phase out fossil drilling on our public lands and waters;
• Declare a climate emergency to halt fossil fuel exports and investments abroad, and turbocharge the buildout of more just, resilient distributed energy (like rooftop and community solar); and
• Provide a just transition to a renewable energy future that generates millions of jobs while supporting workers' and community rights, job security, and employment equity.

"We scientists heard the president loud and clear when he pledged two years ago to 'listen to the science' on climate. Yet now we're watching our nation's greenhouse gas emissions spiral out of control while White House policy becomes increasingly unaligned with reality," Sandra Steingraber—an initial signatory of the letter and a senior scientist at the Science and Environmental Health Network"—said in a statement."Science says we need to ratchet down fossil fuel extraction—the White House is doubling down," she added. " Scientists are here to say that our data support the demands of this march."

Mary Peltola's delicate balance on energy, climate - Mary Peltola, one of the few pro-oil Democrats in Congress, spent months prodding President Joe Biden to approve the enormous Willow project on the North Slope of Alaska. She was the only Democrat this year to join the pro-fossil fuel Congressional Western Caucus. And when Biden reversed oil and gas leases in her state last week, she said she was “deeply frustrated.”The Alaskan has certainly frustrated some members of her own party and environmentalists — in her 2022 campaign, the national chapter of the League of Conservation Voters declined to endorse her.And yet her voting record from LCV reveals she has mostly joined with Democrats on environmental bills with the exception of a handful of times. Republicans plan to use such votes against her in a seat they are targeting to retake in 2024.Up for a second full term, Peltola finds herself in a tough spot. She represents a state that has long depended on the oil and gas industry for jobs and direct checks to residents. At the same time, the brutal effects of climate change are on full display: The Arctic is melting; permafrost is thawing; coastal villages are moving inland.In her view, people in cities in the “lower 48” have the luxury of not thinking about where their energy comes from — even as they have an insatiable appetite for power.“It was frustrating to hear [the Willow] project referred to as a carbon bomb,” she said in a recent interview, referring to comments made by some green groups.“When, actually, the carbon bomb has been on the demand side,” said Peltola. “The folks who were saying that about this project came from districts where every single day the mere existence of their district is a carbon bomb.” She complained that Americans are oblivious to the amount of carbon they consume powering their iPhone or microwaving their coffee. “I just would love to see Americans have an honest conversation about how to reduce our carbon emissions — all of us — including people who come from big districts.”Along with the state’s two Republican senators, Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan, Peltola spent months pushing senior administration officials and President Joe Biden to greenlight Willow, a contentious operation that at its peak will produce 180,000 barrels of oil a day over 68,000 acres in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.Observers thought her Democratic credentials might have given the Biden administration cover to approve a fossil fuel project that generated enormous backlash among many in the party — not to mention young climate advocates.

Pared back federal oil and gas lease sale nets $13M - Oil and natural gas developers offered up $13.2 million to lease the drilling and production rights to 53 federal parcels in Wyoming this month. One lease parcel in Converse County attracted seven different bidders during the auction before going to California-based Phoenix Capital Group Holdings, LLC, for $2.6 million compared to an average $250,000 per parcel, according toWyoming Bureau of Land Management data.The BLM originally considered 115 lease parcels for the third-quarter sale but pared down its offering to 81, withdrawing some areas to protect greater sage grouse habitat as well as crucial winter range for big game. Similarly, the agency originally considered 209 lease parcels for its second quarter lease sale in June but pared that sale down to 116 due to similar concerns and approved a total of only 67, earning $14.8 million.“Those lost acres represent lost opportunities,” the Petroleum Association of Wyoming told the BLM in its written commentsto the agency regarding the third-quarter sale. “It increases the potential for less effective development programs and will surely result in lost opportunities to generate economic activity and a fair return to the American public.”Federal officials failed to point to specific scientific analysis — particularly regarding greater sage grouse habitat — in withdrawing some acres nominated for lease sales, according to the association’s president Pete Obermueller. “Their decisions to defer are not based on any data showing sage grouse habitat or populations are under pressure specifically from oil and gas development in those areas,” Obermueller told WyoFile. “The BLM’s process for determining which parcels are offered has long been a source of frustration even before the Biden Administration,” he added. “Using unexplained and completely opaque decision-making, the BLM can and does offer parcels that no company nominated and often offers only fractions of parcels nominated by an interested company.”Crucial habitat for big game appears to be another driver for limiting lease sales, especially in light of a deadly winter for pronghorn and mule deer. The Theodore Roosevelt Conservation Partnership, in its written comments, praised the BLM for reducing the number of parcels overlapping with crucial big game winter range from 19 (covering 9,511 acres) to seven (covering 3,270 acres) in the recent sale.The BLM appears to have also removed a handful of parcels nominated for a fourth-quarter lease sale, both in priority sage grouse and big game winter habitats, according to an assessment by the Wyoming Outdoor Council.Though the BLM is mandated to conduct quarterly sales each year, the Sept. 6 offering was only the second of three sales scheduled for the year. The first quarterly sale for 2023, as well as several in 2022 and 2021 were suspended due to a Biden administration moratorium, which was eventually overturned by the courts.

Biden administration gives states more authority to block pipeline projects -The Biden administration is giving states and tribes more authority to block certain projects, like pipelines that run through their waters, on water quality grounds.A new final rule from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) undoes the Trump administration’s efforts to limit states’ authority to block such projects.Specifically, the new Biden rule allows a state or tribe to consider any aspect of the project with the potential to impact water quality as it weighs whether to approve or block a project. “Our focus was on restoring [state] authority and providing an efficient path to critical infrastructure projects in this country,” Radhika Fox, the EPA’s top water official, told reporters on Thursday.Several Democratic governors praised the rule in a statement issued by the Biden administration.“EPA’s action will better protect New Mexico’s water quality at a time when federal and state protections are needed most,” said New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D).The Clean Water Act gives states the authority to approve or reject projects that run through their waters. The Trump administration sought to limit that authority, a decision that came after Democrat-led states used the law to block two major projects: a coal shipping port in Washington state and a pipeline that would have run between Pennsylvania and New York. In addition to the change regarding pollution, the Biden administration also said its rule encourages “early engagement” between industry and the states or tribes. It would do so by enabling states and tribes to meet with companies who are trying to get a project approved before the clock starts on the one-year deadline to make a decision.

Biden administration restores the power of states and tribes to review projects to protect waterways (AP) — States and Native American tribes will have greater authority to block energy projects such as natural gas pipelines that could pollute rivers and streams under a final rule issued Thursday by the Biden administration.The rule, which takes effect in November, reverses a Trump-era action that limited the ability of states and tribes to review pipelines, dams and other federally regulated projects within their borders. The Environmental Protection Agency says the new regulation will empower local authorities to protect rivers and streams while supporting infrastructure projects that create jobs.“We actually think this is going to be great for the country,'' said Radhika Fox, assistant administrator for water. “It’s going to allow us to balance the Biden administration goals of protecting our water resources and also supporting all kinds of infrastructure projects that this nation so desperately needs.''But Fox acknowledged at a briefing that the water rule will be significantly slimmed down from an earlier proposal because of a Supreme Court ruling that weakened regulations protecting millions of acres of wetlands. That ruling, in a case known as Sackett v. EPA,sharply limited the federal government’s jurisdiction over wetlands, requiring that wetlands be more clearly connected to other waters such as oceans and rivers. Environmental advocates said the May decision would strip protections from tens of millions of acres of wetlands. Fox declined to offer a specific number of waterways that would no longer be protected. But she said the Sackett case "does limit pretty significantly the number of the waters that we expect to be (under federal jurisdiction) when those determinations are made'' by the Army Corps of Engineers.The administration will work closely with states, tribes and territories on implementing the rule, "but again, what is jurisdictional and not jurisdictional is determined by these very case-specific reviews'' by the Corps, she said.In a separate action last month, the Biden administration weakened regulations protecting millions of acres of wetlands, saying it had no choice after the high court ruling. The rule defining “Waters of the United States” marks a policy shift that departs from a half-century of federal rules governing the nation’s waterways.The federal Clean Water Act allows states and tribes to review what effect pipelines, dams and some other federally regulated projects might have on water quality within their borders. The Trump administration sought to streamline fossil fuel development and made it harder for local officials to block projects.The rule announced Thursday will shift power back to states, tribes and territories.EPA Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement that the new rule affirms the authority of states, territories and tribes "to protect precious water resources while advancing federally permitted projects in a transparent, timely and predictable way.”The rule allows states and tribes to work with federal agencies to determine the time frame for review — up to a maximum of one year — but provides a six-month default deadline if local authorities and the federal agency do not agree on a timeline.

Feds delay decision in Dakota Access enviro review - The Dakota Access oil pipeline’s future remains uncertain after the Army Corps of Engineers on Friday released a long-awaited draft environmental study that will help determine whether it receives an easement needed to keep operating. Federal officials did not recommend whether the Biden administration should grant an easement for a 1.02-mile portion of the pipeline that runs under Lake Oahe, a reservoir on the Missouri River about a half-mile north of the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe’s reservation in North Dakota. The final study, which will include a public comment period, will likely make that determination. At a Senate hearing in April, Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works Michael Connor said the public will likely have 60 days to comment before a final version is released. A spokesperson for Energy Transfer LP, the pipeline’s operator, said the company was reviewing the draft study and declined to respond. The Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group, called for the Army Corp to recommend shutting down the pipeline in its final study. “We stand in solidarity with the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe in opposing this dirty and dangerous pipeline that harms the climate and threatens the primary water source for the Tribe,” Amy Mall, a senior advocate with the group, said in a statement. “The Army Corps must consider all of the risks of this pipeline, make all significant environmental information available without redactions, and honor the Tribe’s treaty rights.” The pipeline inspired intense protests of thousands of people in 2016 and 2017, as well as lawsuits. It has remained in operation since it opened in 2017, despite legal challenges. In 2020, Judge James Boasberg of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ruled that the Dakota Access pipeline should be closed and drained of oil until a better review could be completed under the National Environmental Policy Act. Boasberg, an Obama appointee, said the Army Corps needed to take a closer look at spill risks for the portion of the 1,172-mile pipeline that lies beneath Lake Oahe. A year later, the U.S. Court of Appeals said a shutdown was not necessary but agreed that NEPA required a better analysis of potential spill risks. The Supreme Court decided against hearing the dispute in February 2022. The draft environmental impact study released Friday included five alternative actions the Army Corps could order but stopped short of recommending any of them.

Senate votes to raise oil well bond requirements - The state Senate passed an environmental and taxpayer-protection bill Wednesday that would make oil and gas companies planning to buy a relatively low-producing well first demonstrate they have enough money to plug and restore it whenever the operation becomes uneconomical in the future. Assembly Bill 1167, now awaiting a concurrence vote before likely heading for a signature by Gov. Gavin Newsom, is aimed at shielding the public from the cost of addressing so-called orphan wells, for which no responsible party can be found to pay for making sure the facilities don't end up polluting air and groundwater.

Legal assault awaits Biden's Alaska lease cancellation - An Alaska corporation is already teeing up a legal battle over the Biden administration’s decision to cancel contested oil and gas leases in a massive wildlife refuge. The Interior Department announced plans last week to revoke seven leases held by the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority (AIDEA) that were sold in the final days of the Trump administration. The state corporation has vowed to pursue legal action against the federal government for the cancellation of the leases spanning 365,000 acres in the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, also known as ANWR. “A willingness to circumvent laws passed by Congress has consequences reaching far beyond ANWR’s boundaries, and will impact future development across this country,” the authority said in a statement last week. “AIDEA will aggressively defend our lease rights and oppose this unlawful action.” The Biden administration’s move is likely on solid legal ground, said some court watchers. Legal observers said the decision to cancel the leases — based on what the administration called an inadequate National Environmental Policy Act review process — appears to fall within the Interior Department’s well-established power. But the strength of the department’s legal argument for cancellation could depend on which laws a federal court might rely on to decide if the Biden administration could withdraw the leases — legislation that is specific to leasing in part of Alaska, or a broader lease cancellation standard. “Generally, there is the authority to cancel leases if the leases were issued unlawfully, for whatever reason,” said Mark Squillace, director of the Natural Resources Law Center at the University of Colorado, Boulder. The Mineral Leasing Act gives Interior discretion to cancel a lease for a mistake or inadequate NEPA review, said Rebecca Watson, a former department official under the George W. Bush administration. She noted that the government doesn’t often cancel leases because it is required to pay back the lease bonus paid at the time of the sale, and the lease holder can also negotiate for costs. “Unless the ‘flawed NEPA’ decision is arbitrary and unsupported by law and facts, the feds are likely to prevail,” said Watson, who is now special counsel at the firm Welborn Sullivan Meck & Tooley PC. The Biden administration’s claims may also be complicated by Congress’ directives to develop an oil and gas program in the Arctic refuge. Former Trump Interior Secretary David Bernhardt, who oversaw the January 2021 lease sale, said that Interior had “multiple legal obligations” under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which required the department to offer two lease sales in the refuge. The Biden administration is planning to revoke leases from the first of these sales. Interior must offer a second sale by the end of 2024. The 2017 law directs Interior to follow a similar cancellation criteria to the standard set for leases in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve, or NPR-A. There are other provisions of the Tax Act that may or may not be relevant, like acreage limitations, said Bernhardt. The first question a court must resolve is whether the process for canceling leases in the reserve applies, or if the decision is subject to Bureau of Land Management regulatory requirements or some other standard, said Bernhardt. Then a court must determine whether the Biden administration offered adequate rationale for the cancellation.

Why Trump’s tax law could limit Biden’s efforts to protect Arctic wildlife from drilling The Biden administration’s efforts to protect wildlife in the Arctic from oil and gas drilling is on a collision course with a Trump-era law requiring oil and gas leasing there.When President Biden was on the campaign trail he called for “permanently protecting” the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge from drilling. And this past week, his administration canceled oil and gas rights issued there under the Trump administration. The president, in a written statement, said the action “will help preserve our Arctic lands and wildlife, while honoring the culture, history, and enduring wisdom of Alaska Natives.”But a 2017 tax law also required at least one drilling rights sale to be held by the end of 2021, and another to be held by the end of next year — meaning the Biden administration is expected to have to auction off some land in the refuge for oil and gas development.The latest action is also expected to face a court challenge, with Alaska’s governor indicating he will sue the Biden administration. “We will fight for Alaska’s right to develop its own resources and will be turning to the courts to correct the Biden Administration’s wrong,” Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy said in a written statement this week. The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, sometimes abbreviated as ANWR, is an area of northeastern Alaska along the border with Canada’s Yukon that is about the same size as North Carolina. It is on the traditional homeland of the Iñupiat and Gwichʼin peoples and also contains a great deal of wildlife, including black, brown and polar bears; caribou, wolves and wolverines; and more than 200 species of birds. Whether to allow oil and gas production in the refuge has been a political issue for decades.

Athabasca Closes Sale of Non-Core Oil Assets in Montney, Duvernay Plays - Athabasca Oil Corp. has completed the sale of non‐core light oil assets at Placid, Saxon, and Simonette to an undisclosed private company for $118.6 million (CAD 160 million) in cash before closing adjustments. The assets in the transaction were Athabasca’s 70-percent operated working interest in Placid targeting the Montney shale play, its 30-percent non‐operated working interest in Saxon and Simonette targeting the Duvernay play, and other associated non‐core Placid Montney assets, the company said in a news release Thursday. In the first half of the year, the assets collectively averaged around 3,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), which were around 45 percent liquids. The effective date of the transaction is March 1, according to the release. The transaction, which was announced in July, was completed “at attractive and accretive metrics, and crystallizes the value of the assets that have become non‐core due to the smaller scale, lower liquids content and lower relative returns versus core assets within the company’s portfolio”, Athabasca said. Athabasca’s Light Oil division now consists exclusively of the Duvernay in the Greater Kaybob area with approximately 155,000 gross acres across Kaybob West, Kaybob North, Kaybob East, and Two Creeks. The company is planning a Duvernay activity that is expected to offset production from the transaction and support the company’s multi‐year free cash flow outlook. Athabasca said it is “uniquely positioned” in the liquids‐rich oil window of the play with a de‐risked inventory of around 500 gross wells. Athabasca expects its annual production to be within the previous guidance of 34,500 to 36,000 boepd, adding that the strong performance of the company’s assets to date, including the recent ramp‐up of the five new sustaining well pairs at Leismer, are expected to offset production associated with the transaction in the company’s original guidance, according to the release.

EIA Boosts Brent and WTI Oil Price Forecasts -The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot average price forecasts for both 2023 and 2024 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released this week. In the latest STEO, the EIA projected that Brent spot prices will average $84.46 per barrel this year and $88.22 per barrel next year and that WTI spot prices will average $79.65 per barrel in 2023 and $83.22 per barrel in 2024. In its previous STEO, the EIA predicted that Brent spot prices would come in at $82.62 per barrel this year and $86.48 per barrel next year. In that STEO, the WTI spot price was anticipated to average $77.79 per barrel in 2023 and $81.48 per barrel in 2024. The EIA’s latest STEO sees the Brent spot price averaging $86.09 per barrel in the third quarter, $92.68 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $91 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024, $88 per barrel in the second quarter of next year, and $87 per barrel in both the third and fourth quarter of 2024. The WTI spot price will average $81.48 per barrel in the third quarter, $87.68 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $86 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $83 per barrel in the second quarter, and $82 per barrel in both the third and fourth quarters, according to the September STEO. “Following Saudi Arabia’s September 5 announcement to extend its voluntary one million barrel per day production cut through the end of this year, we expect that global oil inventories will fall over that period, adding upward pressure to oil prices in the coming months,” the EIA said in its latest STEO. “The Brent crude oil spot price in our forecast averages $93 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2023. Prices should decline beginning in 2024 as oil inventories build, with prices averaging $88 per barrel next year,” it added. “The inventory builds next year largely reflect slowing oil demand growth, non-OPEC oil production growth, and the end of Saudi Arabia’s voluntary production cuts,” the EIA continued. The EIA noted in the September STEO that its current assessment is that global oil inventories are falling by 0.6 million barrel per day in the third quarter. “Inventory draws moderate to 0.2 million in 4Q23, but OPEC+ cuts to oil production keep global oil production lower than global oil demand,” the EIA said in the STEO. “As a result, we expect the Brent spot price will remain above $90 per barrel through 1Q24 before averaging $87 per barrel over the remaining three quarters of next year,” it added. “However, the potential for continued voluntary production cuts creates some upside risk for oil prices,” it continued.

US behind more than a third of global oil and gas expansion plans, report finds - The US accounts for more than a third of the expansion of global oil and gas production planned by mid-century, despite its claims of climate leadership, research has found.Canada and Russia have the next biggest expansion plans, calculated based on how much carbon dioxide is likely to be produced from new developments, followed by Iran, China and Brazil. The United Arab Emirates, which is to host the annual UN climate summit this year, Cop28 in Dubai in November, is seventh on the list.The data, in a report from the campaign group Oil Change International, also showed that five “global north countries” – the US, Canada, Australia, Norway and the UK – will be responsible for just over half of all the planned expansion from new oil and gas fields to 2050.Greenhouse gas emissions from all of the oil and gas expansion that is planned in the next three decades would be more than enough to drive global temperatures well beyond the limit of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels that countries agreed in 2021 at Cop26 in Glasgow, the report found.The International Energy Agency warned in 2021 that no new oil and gas exploration and development could take place if the world was to stay within the 1.5C limit. But only a handful of countries with oil and gas reserves are forswearing new exploration and drilling.Romain Ioualalen, the global policy lead at Oil Change International and co-author of the report, said countries must call a halt to fossil fuel expansion. “It’s simple: when you are in a hole, the first step is to stop digging,” he said. “The climate crisis is global in nature, but is atrociously unjust. A handful of the world’s richest nations are risking our future by willingly ignoring the calls to rapidly phase out fossil fuels.”The report, titled Planet wreckers: how 20 countries’ oil and gas extraction plans risk locking in climate chaos, published on Tuesday, found that 20 countries were responsible for plans for new oil and gas developments by 2050 that would add about 173bn tonnes of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. That amount is the same as the lifetime emissions of 1,100 coal-fired power plants, or more than 30 years of the US’s annual emissions.

New fossil fuel projects ‘very unwise economic risk’ says global energy chief - Countries and companies planning to expand their fossil fuel production are taking “very unhealthy and unwise economic risks” as their investments may not be profitable, the world’s foremost energy adviser has warned.Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), predicted this week that fossil fuels would peak this decade, a historic turning point for the climate. But despite the likelihood of demand declining, and the threat of climate chaos, many countries and private sector companies are considering new capacity.Birol said: “New large-scale fossil fuel projects not only carry major climate risks, but also business and financial risks for the companies and their investors.“When I talk with the oil companies, both international and national oil companies, some of them are saying that we have been underinvesting in oil and gas. But companies and investors should be very careful about this claim, bearing in mind the demand trajectories we are seeing. It could lead them into taking very unhealthy, unwise economic and climate risks.”Governments should be urgently discussing the phasing-out of fossil fuels at Cop28, the forthcoming UN climate summit, Birol said. The question of phasing out was dropped at last year’s Cop, but many countries plan to reignite the debate this year.But even with governments’ current climate policies, which are inadequate and need to be toughened, the amount of oil and gas needed globally will decline, Birol noted.“If you start a project today, wherever you are, the first oil or gas will come to markets in five years, and will come at a time when you will see global oil and gas trends declining,” he told the Guardian in an interview. “Therefore, one should be very careful about not only the climate risk, but also the business risk on large-scale oil and gas projects.”Birol refused to single out any countries, but several developed and developing economies are planning large expansions of their fossil fuel production, despite their commitments to limiting global temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. The US was this week found to be planning the world’s biggest share of global oil and gas expansion between now and 2050, and the UK government plans scores of new oil and gas licences as the prime minister,Rishi Sunak, vowed to “max out” the North Sea.Several countries and companies planning expansions have cited findings from the IEA that oil and gas will still be needed in the future, even when the world reaches net zero greenhouse gas emissions, as justification for their plans. Birol warned that they were not taking on board the IEA’s full advice: “We will definitely need oil and gas in years and years to come, but the issue is the amount of oil and gas we will need globally will be less and less.”He said: “They are misjudging the market trends – they believe what they want to believe. And they also misjudge the mood of the people in the street as far as climate change is concerned, and their responsibility.”Birol applauded the proposed commitment to triple global renewable energy capacity, likely to be a centrepiece of Cop28, which will take place from late November in Dubai. But he said this commitment was insufficient and that the rapid decline of fossil fuels was also needed to keep the world within 1.5C.“The increase of renewables is good, but in the absence of a decline in fossil fuels, the impact on temperature trajectories will be minimal or nothing,” he said. “There should be a discussion [of the phase-out of fossil fuels at Cop28]. And I hope that discussion will give a signal to the markets that fossil fuel consumption will fall.”

Countries Emit More Methane than Reported to UN: Study - Observed methane releases from global oil and gas operations are 30 percent higher than what countries estimate in reports to the UN, according to a new study that analyzed satellite observations of the potent greenhouse gas. The world’s four largest oil and gas emitters, the US, Russia, Venezuela and Turkmenistan, account for most of the overall discrepancy, according to the report published last month in Nature Communications. The satellite data challenges figures reported to the UN, which rely on so-called emissions factors — estimates for how much methane equipment might normally release — applied to production and use rates. The real-world data recorded by satellites suggests those estimates are way too low. The authors used a “top-down” approach to model and estimate emissions for most of the world with fossil fuel production by using 22 months of detections from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-5P satellite. “Satellite data should be used to monitor the accuracy of the national emission inventories submitted” to the UN, said Daniel Jacob, one of the authors and a professor at Harvard University’s department of earth and planetary sciences. Adding top-down methods to the bottom-up estimates currently used would more accurately pinpoint who and what is responsible for methane emissions and offer governments a clearer picture of how to make the cheapest and most effective cuts. The new research is notable for its breadth, covering 96 percent of global emissions from oil and gas and bolstering previous studies that have detailed underreporting of methane emissions. Methane is the primary component of natural gas, but it can also leak from the Earth during oil and coal production. The potent greenhouse gas has more than 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide during its first two decades in the atmosphere. Curbing releases of the gas could do more to slow climate change than almost any other single measure. Three of the ten largest oil and gas methane emitters identified in the report — the US, Canada, Uzbekistan and Saudi Arabia — have signed the the Global Methane Pledge, which targets a 30 percent reduction in global emissions of the gas by the end of this decade from 2020 levels. If methane generated from human activity is responsible for a larger share of the world’s total emissions, including from natural sources, then a 30 percent cut from that activity would have a bigger effect on overall methane concentrations, according to Jacob. The study identified significant opportunities to reduce methane emissions in Venezuela, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Angola, Iraq, Ukraine, Nigeria and Mexico, all of which have methane intensities between 5 percent and 25 percent for their oil and gas industries. Lowering those intensities to the global average of 2.4 percent would reduce emissions from the sector globally by 18 percent.

Gas markets are becoming 'extremely difficult' to predict. It's a big problem for Europe this winter Energy analysts are warning of more gas market volatility and higher prices as Europe races to prepare for another winter heating season. European gas markets have been constantly fluctuating in recent months, owing to extreme heat, maintenance at gas plants and, most recently, industrial action at major liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Australia. Workers at U.S. energy giant Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone natural gas projects in Western Australia went on strike last week, after a protracted dispute over pay and job security. Work stoppages of up to 11 hours are scheduled to continue through to Thursday, at which point the action is poised to ramp up to a total strike of two weeks. At present, no further talks are scheduled to resolve the dispute, exacerbating fears that a prolonged halt to production would squeeze global supplies. Australia is a major player in the global LNG market — and even though most of its exports are destined for Japan, China and South Korea, disruption from the strikes is likely to result in Asia and Europe competing for LNG from other suppliers. The front-month gas price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub, a European benchmark for natural gas trading, traded 1.4% higher on Tuesday morning at 36.3 euros ($38.91) per megawatt hour. The TTF contract rose to around 43 euros last month amid fears of strike action. “The fear of an unbalanced gas supply and demand seesaw has dominated markets,” Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a U.S.-based think tank, said in a research note. She said the combination of lower gas consumption and Europe filling up its storage facilities ahead of schedule had helped to prevent gas prices from skyrocketing to last summer’s extraordinary peak of 340 euros. However, given the uncertainty over how the situation in Australia will unfold, Jaller-Makarewicz said Europe should brace itself for more volatility and an increase in prices.

Chevron Australia LNG Workers Begin Strike -- Workers at Chevron Corp.'s liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Australia started their planned strike of at least three weeks on Friday, which could threaten supply to Asian markets. Most of the output from Chevron Australia Pty. Ltd's Gorgon and Wheatstone projects, as well as the North West Shelf facility in which it holds a non-operated stake, goes to Asian countries, with whom it has long-term contracts, according to the company. "Within 24 hours of Protected Industrial Action commencing on Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone facilities, Chevron have started evacuating their contractor workforce", the Offshore Alliance said in a statement on Facebook. "Chevron chartered a special flight this morning [September 8] to Barrow Island to evacuate 50 blue and white collar contract crew off the Gorgon Project", the union added. Rigzone asked Chevron Australia Pty. Ltd. on the weekend for confirmation of the development but has yet to receive a response. The commencement of the strike by the Offshore Alliance, which consists of the Australian Workers' Union (AWU) and the Maritime Union of Australia, means intervention by Australia's Fair Work Commission (FWC), confirmed by the AWU in a statement on September 1, failed. The Offshore Alliance earlier extended the strike for at least two more weeks after the initially planned seven-day walkout, accusing the energy giant of circumventing bargaining negotiations. "The Offshore Alliance lawyers have served Chevron with a further Notice of Protected Industrial Action which will commence after our first 7 days of PIA kicks off on Thursday 7th September", the union said in a statement on Facebook September 5. "The new Protected Industrial Action Notice will escalate workbans and the OA [Offshore Alliance] will have rolling 24 x 1 hour stoppages, each day for 14 days from Thursday 14th September". The Offshore Alliance had said a majority of workers at the Gorgon and Wheatstone facilities in Western Australia voted for a strike to press for better employment standards. Of 253 Offshore Alliance members at Gorgon 249 voted in the strike ballot, all in favor. Of 188 members at Wheatstone 184 voted, all in support of a strike.

EU Taps Ukraine Storage Facilities to Secure Gas Supply - The European Union had about 3.53 trillion cubic feet (100 billion cubic meters) of stored gas as of this week, only six percent short of reaching capacity. While this level shows the region is moving toward stabilizing the market, the EU has started sending gas to Ukraine for future re-export to the bloc to help secure supply, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said Thursday. The 27-member group had a month ago already reached its annual target of restocking gas storage facilities to at least 90 percent of capacity. On August 18 the EU Directorate-General for Energy reported 3.28 trillion cubic feet (93 billion cubic meters) or 1,024 terawatt hours (tWh) in store, 90.12 percent of capacity. "This week, EU-wide storage level is at over 94 percent of capacity", Simson told a forum in Warsaw Thursday, according to a transcript on the European Commission website. "Having in storage approximately 100 bcm [billion cubic meters] sends an important signal to stabilize markets. "Additional volumes are now flowing towards Ukraine, and Ukraine's significant storage capacity is already being used by customers". Simson added she is working with Ukraine Energy Minister German Galushchenko "to facilitate further regulatory de-risking, to allow EU companies to tap fully into the potential of Ukraine's very big gas storage". The EU had used storage facilities in Ukraine for extra supply in 2020, as confirmed by Ukraine's state-owned gas storage operator Ukrtransgaz JSC. The EU accounted for the majority of the 353.15 billion cubic feet (10 bcm) non-resident contribution to Ukraine's 2020 injection of 999.41 billion cubic feet (28.3 bcm) that year, the highest level over the last decade, Ukrtransgaz said in a press release November 17, 2020. That was before Russia invaded Ukraine February 2022, but Simson said in the Poland forum "gas can be re-exported back [from Ukraine] to the EU even under stress conditions". Eighty percent of Ukrtransgaz' total storage capacity of 1.09 trillion cubic feet (30.95 bcm) is "close to EU", Ukrtransgaz said in a report to the EU-led Energy Community agency dated September 1, 2021. "Ukraine's compliance with the requirements of the Third Energy Package proved its intentions for integration to EU gas market and, accordingly, developed the business interest of international players", it said in the report, referring to a set of EU rules adopted 2009. Non-government research organization Bruegel warned July that at the pace of replenishment this year, EU storage facilities "will be full [as early as September] and winter demand will not yet have picked up".

TotalEnergies Plans to Power European Refineries with Green Hydrogen - TotalEnergies SE is launching a “massive” green hydrogen tender to reduce the carbon emissions of its six European refineries and two French biofuel plants as pressure mounts on the industry to fight climate change. The French energy giant plans to replace the entire 500,000 tons of gray hydrogen used annually in its refineries in France, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands with green hydrogen by the end of the decade, the company said in a statement Thursday. That would avoid emissions of about 5 million tons of carbon dioxide, crucial for reducing the greenhouse gas releases of its oil and gas operations by 40 percent between 2015 and 2030. The process will be scrutinized as European governments are pledging billions of euros to support the gas produced with water and renewable power, and zero emissions. This so-called green hydrogen is tipped by the European Union as key to decarbonize industries such as refining and fertilizers. However, its global market is currently tiny as it’s more expensive than its widely used “gray” version made with fossil fuels. “Our goal is to find green hydrogen at the most competitive cost from suppliers of various horizons, by testing local markets as well as imports,” Jean-Marc Durand, Total’s head of European refining and petrochemical operations, said at a press briefing. “We imagine that incentives such as European policies can make green hydrogen competitive,” though imports might be needed to help fill what is likely the world’s biggest tender for the clean fuel, he said.

West Declines to Adjust Russian Oil Price Ceiling as Moscow Exports Above the Cap - After nine months of a Western-imposed price ceiling on Russian oil exports, the Kremlin has developed a slate of countries willing to import energy from Moscow. Initially, Moscow priced its oil at a heavy discount to draw in customers, but Russia has recently been able to sell its energy at near market value.In December, the US and the Group of 7 (G7) announced that any firms or countries buying Russian oil for over $60 per barrel would face economic penalties. Last month, Russian oil sold on the market for an average of $74 per barrel, well above the price cap.Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec, explained Moscow’s first response to the price cap. “The sanctions have not led to a significant curtailment in Russian output as the market has been able to reorganize itself to reroute trade flows to keep Russian crude in the market,” he said. “Russia has had to accept a significant discount to achieve this.”Jorge León, vice president and head of oil analysis at the Rystad Energy consultancy, told EL PAÍS that the discount has significantly shrunk. “Historically, before the war, both mixtures were practically at parity.” He continued, “Last year, with the cap and the sanctions, the discount reached $40 per barrel. Today, we’re at around $15. That’s thanks to the cap [on Russian oil prices], although it has been less relevant than initially expected.”Oilprice.com reports the discount on Russian oil has decreased to as little as $5 per barrel.Reuters reports the US and its partners in the G7 have no plans to adjust the price cap on Russian oil. “The G7 and allies have shelved regular reviews of the Russian oil price cap scheme, people familiar with the matter told Reuters,” the outlet reported last week. The last time the cap was reviewed was in March.The trend is likely to continue as Moscow is finding new major buyers for Russian oil. This week, the first Russian oil tanker is expected to arrive in Brazil with 650,000 barrels of oil.León additionally notes Moscow has now developed a fleet of ships to sell its energy to new partners. “Russia has developed its national fleet of oil tankers to be able to carry that crude – especially to Asia – and it has gotten Chinese and Indian companies to participate in the transport of that crude. And that makes the cap less effective, because Russia is able to export its crude without resorting to European services, especially British and Greek fleets,” he said.

Urals Discount to Brent $16.3 - by Menzie Chinn -- From TradingEconomics, accessed just now: Graph Source: TradingEconomics.com, accessed 9/12/2023. The Urals percent discount relative to Brent is about the same in the last observation plotted as the week of 2/27/2022. Is Brent likely to break $100? Latest DoE EIA forecasts (September, as of today) forecast peaks at $92.7 in 2023Q4.

Ukraine Says Black Sea Platforms Used by Russian Forces Captured - Ukraine’s military intelligence service said its forces regained control of several drilling platforms in the Black Sea that were used by Russia for stationing helicopters and radar activity. Special forces units seized a stockpile of helicopter ammunition and a Neva radar system used to track naval movements from the platforms off Crimea’s coast, the Defense Ministry’s GUR spy agency said in a statement on Monday. A Russian Su-30 fighter jet that engaged with Ukrainian forces on boats was damaged and retreated, GUR said. The agency said intelligence units carried out a “unique operation” to retake the Petro Godovenets and Ukraina drilling platforms, as well as the Tavryda and Syvash facilities. Russia’s Defense Ministry has made no mention of the operation. Ukraine has cited slow advances on the southern front in recent weeks, with the military seeking to break Russian defensive lines and recapture territory. Last month, Ukrainian commandos staged a raid in Russian-occupied Crimea — a symbolic operation on Ukraine’s Aug. 24 Independence Day — in an effort to showcase attacks behind front lines. The drilling platforms were purchased and installed in 2011 in area around the Odesa gas field, intended to be part of Ukraine’s oil-and-gas production infrastructure. Russia occupied them in 2015, a year after annexing Crimea from Ukraine, and relocated them closer to the peninsula.

Oil spill from Uran plant caused no damage to farmers, fishermen, says ONGC - State-run ONGC on Sunday said that the recent oil spill from a crude oil storage tank at its plant in Uran, a coastal town in Maharashtra, has not caused any damage to farmers and fishermen and has described the incident as a "minor" oil spill. The statement comes after the oil spilled into a stormwater drainage channel. "There is no damage to either farmers or fishermen due to the minor oil spill near Uran beach recently," said the ONGC statement The statement noted that on Friday morning, a "minor" quantity of oil leaked from one of the crude oil storage tanks at the ONGC Uran plant and due to heavy rains, the leaked oil entered the stormwater drain channel. "As the quantity of oil leakage from the plant area was minimal, the leaked oil got trapped between rocks on the beach with only traces reaching the shoreline," it said. ONGC said that the Oil Spill Response (OSR) team from ONGC was immediately deployed to avoid ingress of oil into the sea and cleaning of the shoreline commenced on war footing. Noting that due to heavy rains on the day of the incident and the beach being a rocky area, the cleaning took a lot of effort, the company said that due to the ONGC team's timely and tireless efforts, the oil did not enter the sea and no damage to marine life is anticipated. The company further said that local villagers had taken an "unauthorized water connection" to their fields by breaching the stormwater drain channel wall from the plant for irrigation purposes, due to which a small quantity of oil entered only four-five paddy fields. "The damage to paddy fields is also very limited. None of the fishermen have suffered any loss due to the small oil spill, as it on the rocky part of the beach," it said, adding that "prompt and proactive" actions by ONGC for cleaning of oil from the beach and drain channels have led to an early restoration, which is now nearing completion.

Libya Says Oil Production Remains Unaffected by Deadly Floods - Libya’s state oil company said there has been no disruption to crude output following a storm that unleashed deadly flooding and left at least 5,500 people dead in the North African country. Oil-export ports in the east were unharmed by the storm and operating normally, Farhat Bengdara, chairman of the National Oil Corporation, said in an interview. Amos Hochstein, US President Joe Biden’s senior adviser for energy, had earlier said on Bloomberg Radio that there had been some curtailments following the disaster. Libya had shut export ports in the east during the storm last weekend, and had reopened them by Tuesday. NOC said then that oil output was running at 1.2 million barrels a day. It didn’t say what level production was at on Friday. Italy’s Eni SpA said the floods hadn’t impacted its Libyan operations. Torrential rain unleashed by Mediterranean storm Daniel collapsed two dams, which devastated the coastal city of Derna in northeast Libya. Relief workers and international organizations are still searching for survivors among collapsed buildings. The destruction has again brought Libya’s oil industry into focus. The country sits atop Africa’s biggest reserves, but production has been regularly disrupted over the years by armed groups. Libya has, however, been more stable since a truce in a civil war around mid-2020, with crude output holding above 1 million barrels a day for most of this year. Still, it remains divided between rival administrations.

OPEC Chief Warns of Energy Chaos - OPEC’s top official warned against abandoning fossil fuels, hitting back once again at remarks from the world’s energy watchdog. Cutting out hydrocarbons “would lead to energy chaos on a potentially unprecedented scale, with dire consequences for economies and billions of people across the world,” Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais said Thursday in a statement. On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency said oil demand may plateau this decade as consumers shift more to renewables to avert catastrophic climate change. “We may be witnessing the beginning of the end of the fossil-fuel era,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. The clash marks yet another war of words between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the IEA, which has criticized Saudi Arabia and its partners for risking an inflationary surge by driving up fuel prices. The Paris-based IEA described the OPEC+ alliance, led by the Saudis and Russia, as a “formidable challenge” to the stability of oil markets, which have faced considerable disruption from Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

At What Level Will Saudi Arabia And Russia Stop Pushing Oil Prices Higher? -The decisions last week by Saudi Arabia to continue its 1 million barrel per day (bpd) production cut to the end of this year and by Russia to extend its 300,000 barrels per day export cut for the same period conspired to push oil prices to their highest level since last November. This in turn has added to the inflationary pressure threatening the economic health of the U.S. and many countries allied to it. The question for these net oil importers (and gas importers too, given that historically 70 percent of gas prices have been comprised of the price of oil) is at what level the two leaders of OPEC+ will halt their efforts to keep pushing prices higher? The first part of this equation revolves around the necessity or not of higher prices to keep these two economies afloat, or whether it is simply greed at work, or a geopolitical power play, or any combination thereof. It is a common conception that Saudi Arabia’s economy is a powerhouse, fuelled by vast revenues from oil. The latter part has some truth to it, helped by having (along with Iran and Iraq) the lowest lifting cost per barrel of oil in the world, at just US$1-2. This said, much of these revenues are deducted almost at source, through the massive dividend repayment obligations that must be made every quarter by Saudi Aramco. Even with Brent oil price averaging around US$80 pb in Q2, 65 percent of its net income went on this debt payment to shareholders. If its net income stayed the same in Q3, this debt payment would rise to 98 percent. What is left after these deductions is the foundation stone of all Saudi Arabia’s spending, which includes not just the basic functions of state – such as health, education, and defence – but vast socioeconomic and vanity projects as well, as analysed in depth in my new book on the new global oil market order. In theory, then, Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven oil price is US$78 pb of Brent. In practice, however – as the fiscal breakeven oil price is the minimum price per barrel that an oil-exporting country needs to meet its expected spending needs while balancing its official budget – its true fiscal breakeven oil price has no set limit. The same applies to Russia. For around 20 years, it had a fiscal breakeven oil price of around US$40 pb. Following its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, though, officially this has jumped to US$115 pb. Unofficially, as wars do not adhere to easily quantifiable and strictly adhered to budgets, the unofficial fiscal breakeven oil price is whatever President Vladimir Putin thinks it should be at any given moment. The first part of the equation, then, is that both Saudi Arabia and Russia absolutely need to keep pushing oil prices higher, which moves the equation into its second part – at what level will they face overwhelming pressure from their customers to stop doing so?The first group of customers are the U.S. and its core allies, in which ever-increasing oil and gas prices have caused dramatic spikes in inflation and the interest rates required to combat it, which in turn make economic recessions more likely. For the U.S. itself, these fears have very specific ramifications: one economic and one political, as also analysed in my new book on the new global oil market order. The economic one is that historically every US$10 pb change in the price of crude oil results in a 25-30 cent change in the price of a gallon of gasoline. For every 1 cent that the average price per gallon of gasoline rises, more than US$1 billion per year in consumer spending is lost, and the U.S. economy suffers. The political one is that, according to statistics from the U.S.’s National Bureau of Economic Research, since the end of World War I in 2018, the sitting U.S. president has won re-election 11 times out of 11 if the U.S. economy was not in recession within two years of an upcoming election. However, sitting U.S. presidents who went into a re-election campaign with the economy in recession won only one time out of seven. This is not a position sitting President Joe Biden, or the Democratic Party, wants to be in one year out from the next U.S. election.

USA Confirms April Seizure of Tanker Carrying Iran Oil - The USA Department of Justice (DOJ) has confirmed the confiscation in April of a tanker carrying what it said was "contraband crude oil" from Iran. Empire Navigation Inc.'s Suez Rajan Ltd. was transporting a 980,000-barrel, "multimillion-dollar shipment" of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a security force designated by Washington as a terrorist organization, the DOJ said in a press release Friday. The operator is based in Athens, Greece. "This is the first-ever criminal resolution involving a company that violated sanctions by facilitating the illicit sale and transport of Iranian oil", read the media statement. The Associated Press earlier reported the shipping company had pleaded guilty to smuggling Iranian petroleum and agreed to pay $2.4 million. Empire Navigation faces three years of probation under the plea deal, it said Thursday citing court documents it had seen. The District Court of Columbia's website shows the case, which had a filing date of August 30, has been unsealed but has yet to be displayed publicly. "The newly unsealed court documents rely on satellite images, as well as documents, to show that the Suez Rajan sought to mask its loading of Iranian crude oil from one tanker by trying to instead claim the oil came from another", The Associated Press wrote. The DOJ account of the case said, "In addition, pursuant to a deferred prosecution agreement and a seizure warrant issued by the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, Empire Navigation, the operating company of the vessel carrying the contraband cargo, agreed to cooperate and transport the Iranian oil to the United States – an operation which has now concluded. "Empire Navigation incurred the significant expenses associated with the vessel’s voyage to the United States". The DOJ added the oil consignment is now the subject of a civil forfeiture suit in the same court. "The United States’ forfeiture complaint alleges that the oil aboard the vessel is subject to forfeiture based on U.S. terrorism and money laundering statutes", it said. Besides Empire Navigation, "multiple entities affiliated with Iran’s IRGC and the IRGC-Qods Force (IRGC-QF)" participated in the scheme to covertly sell the oil to a customer overseas, the DOJ said citing the forfeiture complaint, not naming the destination country. "Participants in the scheme attempted to disguise the origin of the oil using ship-to-ship transfers, false automatic identification system reporting, falsified documents and other means", the DOJ said. "The complaint further alleges that the charterer of the vessel used the U.S. financial system to facilitate the transportation of Iranian oil."The complaint further alleges that the oil constitutes the property of, or provided a 'source of influence' over, the IRGC and the IRGC-QF, both of which have been designated by the United States as foreign terrorist organizations, and that the oil facilitated money laundering. The documents allege that profits from oil sales support the IRGC’s full range of malign activities, including the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery, support for terrorism and both domestic and international human rights abuses".

USA Allows Release of $6 Billion in Oil Proceeds to Iran -The US cleared the way for $6 billion in oil proceeds to be returned to Iran and agreed to release five Iranians as part of a secretly negotiated deal that will clear the way for five American citizens detained in Iran to return home. Secretary of State Antony Blinken notified Congress on Monday of a waiver that will let German, Irish, Qatari, South Korean and Swiss banks transfer the $6 billion from South Korea without fear of running afoul of US sanctions. He said the $6 billion would be held in restricted accounts in Qatar, where it will be “available only for humanitarian trade,” according to a copy of the notification. An Iranian government spokesman said earlier Monday that he expected the transfer of frozen funds to be completed in the “next few days.” The letter to Congress didn’t say when the prisoner exchange would take place. Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the White House National Security Council, said in a statement that “what is being pursued here is an arrangement wherein we secure the release of five wrongfully held Americans. This remains a sensitive and ongoing process. While this is a step in the process, no individuals have been or will be released into US custody this week.” American officials had announced the broad outlines of the deal in early August after Iran moved four US citizens from prison to house arrest. The American prisoners include Siamak Namazi, who has been held in Tehran’s Evin prison since October 2015. At the time, US officials declined to describe details of the deal, saying that revealing more risked upsetting a delicate process that could still fall apart. They were also wary of acknowledging talks with a regime that has escalated human rights abuses and continues to supply weapons and other materiel to Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Blinken signed the waiver on Friday. A State Department spokesperson, who asked not to be identified, said the Biden administration isn’t lifting any sanctions on Iran or providing any sanctions relief as part of the deal. People familiar with the matter have said that the US and Iran have been engaged for months in tentative and secretive diplomacy that’s seen the two sides inch toward an informal understanding under which Tehran would free the Americans and potentially slow or limit its enrichment of uranium. US officials have privately acknowledged they’ve already begun to relax enforcement of sanctions on oil sales, allowing Tehran to boost production. Iran, which has some of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves, has been shipping the most crude to China in a decade in recent months. The talks are part of a broader effort by the Biden administration to restore at least some of the restrictions Iran agreed to under a 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Then-President Donald Trump quit the JCPOA in 2018. Republicans and some Democrats in Congress have been critical of the Biden administration’s bid for new diplomacy with Iran, saying it will only encourage the regime to jail more Americans and press ahead with its nuclear development. Iran denies that it has any plan to acquire a nuclear weapon.

China, Philippine Vessels in Stand-Off in South China Sea - China and the Philippines have engaged in another stand-off near the Second Thomas Shoal, a reef in the South China Sea’s disputed Spratly Islands. This comes as Washington is building up its military presence in the Philippines and elsewhere in the region, eyeing a future war with Beijing. Last month, during a tense confrontation, Chinese Coast Guard ships fired a water cannon at Philippine boats attempting to re-supply a World War II era tank-landing ship. The BRP Sierra Madre, grounded on the reef in 1999, is used by Manilla as a base of operations and to assert its claims. In a more recent incident, the Chinese Coast Guard claimed itallowed the vessels to resupply the warship because a “temporary special arrangement” was made since no “illegal construction materials” were being delivered.However, on Friday, China’s Coast Guard said in a statement that two Philippine supply ships and two coast guard vessels made an “unapproved entry” to the reef and were given a warning as Beijing holds “indisputable sovereignty” over the atoll.Second Thomas Shoal is controlled by Manilla, but is also claimed by Beijing, Taipei, and Hanoi. “[China] firmly opposes the Philippines’ delivery of illegal building materials to warships illegally grounded on the beach,” the statement reads. The Philippines conversely denounced the “illegal” actions of the Chinese Coast Guard, citing “harassment, dangerous maneuvers, and aggressive conduct.”Commander of the US Pacific Fleet, Adm. Samuel Paparo, has previously declared Washington “stand[s] ready” to assist Philippine boats attempting to resupply the BRP Sierra Madre. Last week, the US and the Philippines conducted a joint naval patrol in the South China Sea where Vice Adm. Karl Thomas, commander of the US Seventh Fleet, believes Beijing should be “challenged.”The White House has signed a deal to gain access to four more military bases in the Philippines, including some which are located provocatively close to the island of Taiwan. US troops have been deployed to Taiwan and are training local forces for war with the mainland. Joe Biden andother top officials have repeatedly stated the US will go to war with Beijing if the island is attacked.Disputes between Manilla and Beijing risk being a flashpoint for a much larger conflict. In May, the US issued new guidelines for its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines. The Pentagon clarified “an armed attack in the Pacific, including anywhere in the South China Sea, on either of [the Philippines’] public vessels, aircraft, or armed forces – which includes their Coast Guards – would invoke mutual defense commitments under Articles IV and V of the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.”

NATO Begins War Games in Baltic Sea, Simulate Attack on Russia - The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has launched major war games taking place off the coasts of Latvia and Estonia. A Western official said the drills are intended to be a clear message to Russia.The war games – dubbed Northern Coasts – began on Saturday and will run for two weeks. Germany is leading the drills and 13 other nations will participate, including the US and non-NATO member Sweden. Over 3,000 troops and 30 warships are involved in the exercises.German Navy chief Vice Admiral Jan Christian Kaack told Reuters the war games are a show of force to Russia. “We are sending a clear message of vigilance to Russia: Not on our watch,” he said. “Credible deterrence must include the ability to attack.” Acting NATO Spokesperson Dylan White added, “Exercises like these send a clear message that NATO stands ready to defend every inch of Allied territory.”According to a NATO press release, the war games are designed to simulate, “amphibious operations, air defense, strikes from sea to land, and securing sea lanes.” NATO has held the Northern Coasts drills annually since 2007.

Zelensky Implies Ukrainian Refugees in Europe Will Resort to Terrorism If West Curtails Aid - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky implied in an interview withThe Economist that Ukrainian refugees in Europe might resort to terrorism if Western aid to Ukraine is curtailed. The Economist report reads: “Curtailing aid to Ukraine will only prolong the war, Mr Zelensky argues. And it would create risks for the West in its own backyard. There is no way of predicting how the millions of Ukrainian refugees in European countries would react to their country being abandoned. Ukrainians have generally ‘behaved well’ and are ‘very grateful’ to those who sheltered them. They will not forget that generosity. But it would not be a ‘good story’ for Europe if it were to ‘drive these people into a corner.'” Zelensky also said in the interview, published on September 10, that anyone who is not supporting Ukraine is with Russia. “If you are not with Ukraine, you are with Russia, and if you are not with Russia, you are with Ukraine. And if partners do not help us, it means they will help Russia to win. That is it,” he said. Despite Ukraine’s faltering counteroffensive, the Ukrainian leader said he was preparing for a long war and rejected the idea of diplomacy with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The report reads: “Tapping loudly on the table, Mr. Zelensky rejects outright the idea of compromise with Vladimir Putin. War will continue for ‘as long as Russia remains on Ukrainian territory,’ he says.”While worried about sustaining support from the West for the long-term, Zelensky said he does not expect to lose US backing if former President Trump is elected in 2024. He said Trump would “never” support Putin. “That isn’t what strong Americans do,” he added.

Putin Accuses UK of Being Behind Plot Against Russian Nuclear Plant - Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday alleged that the UK was behind a foiled plot against a Russian nuclear power plant.The Russian leader claimed that a group of “saboteurs” was captured by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). “During the questioning, they testified that they were trained under supervision of British instructors,” Putin said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.Putin did not offer any evidence for the accusation and did not name what nuclear power plant the saboteurs planned to target but insisted he was telling the truth. “The leadership of British intelligence agencies knows that I am telling the truth,” he said.The Russian leader questioned if Britain’s leadership was aware of the activities of their intelligence agencies. “Do they even understand what they are playing with? Do they provoke us to some response actions against Ukrainian nuclear facilities, power plants?” he said.Putin’s accusation comes after Ukraine has significantly stepped up drone attacks inside Russian territory. Moscow has made clear it believes the US and its allies are involved in the attacks, and The Economist recently reported that the operations often use intelligence gathered by Kyiv’s Western backers.Western involvement in attacks inside Russia, whether real or perceived, risks a major escalation as Moscow could retaliate by targeting NATO. The US shows little concern for the risk, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that “targeting decisions” are up to Ukraine even if they’re using US-provided missiles.

Ukraine Hits Russian Shipyard in Crimea With Cruise Missiles - Ukraine launched a barrage of cruise missiles at a Russian shipyard in Sevastopol, Crimea, on Wednesday, damaging at least two warships andinjuring 24 people.The incident is believed to be Ukraine’s most significant strike on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet of the war. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, 10 cruise missiles were launched at the shipyard, and seven were intercepted. The ministry said three unmanned boats targeted a detachment of Russian ships in the Black Sea, but the drones were destroyed.Sky News reported that Western and Ukrainian sources said Ukraine used British-provided Storm Shadow missiles in the attack. Storm Shadows have a range of about 155 miles and can be fired by Ukraine’s Soviet-made fighter jets. The UK first began supplying Ukraine with Storm Shadows in May, which marked a significant escalation of NATO support for the proxy war against Russia.Ukrainian Air Force commander Mykola Oleschuk confirmed that Kyiv was behind the attack on Sevastopol. “And while the occupiers are ‘storming’ and they are still recovering from the night cotton in Sevastopol, thank you to the pilots of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for their excellent combat work!” he wrote on Telegram.

Report: Russia Doubled Tank and Ammunition Production Despite Sanctions - The New York Times reported Wednesday that Russia has been able to significantly ramp up its production of ammunition and other armaments despite Western sanctions meant to degrade the country’s military industry.According to one senior Western defense official, before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia could produce 100 tanks a year. Now they can make 200. Western officials also believe Russia is on track to produce 2 million artillery shells per year, twice the amount they estimated Russia could make before the war.As a result of the increase in production, Russia can make more ammunition than the US and Europe combined. The US and its NATO allies are working to bolster their production, but results aren’t expected to be seen for years. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenbergpreviously said Ukraine was using artillery rounds at a faster rate than the entire alliance could produce.Kusti Salm, a senior Estonian Defense Ministry official, estimated in comments to the Times that Russia’s current ammunition production is seven times greater than the West’s. The figure demonstrates how time is on Russia’s side in the conflict and how fueling the proxy war may be unsustainable for the US and its NATO allies.According to the Times, US and other Western sanctions targeting certain technologies, such as advanced semiconductors, initially hurt Russia’s ammunition production. But Moscow was able to find ways around the sanctions, and its economy has also adapted to the US-led economic blitz by finding new markets for energy exports in Asia.

At global pariah summit, Putin and Kim Jong Un talk weapons and satellite tech – At the closely watched summit of global outcasts, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday pledged cooperation with North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong Un.While Russia was widely believed to be seeking an arms deal with North Korea, the meeting ended without major announcements on weapons, although Putin acknowledged that the issue was on the agenda.The meeting took place against the backdrop of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, which has isolated the Kremlin and left it hunting allies — and military equipment — in other ostracized capitals like Pyongyang and Tehran.“Our friendship has deep roots, and now our country’s first priority is relations with the Russian Federation,” Kim told reporters, after he arrived following a lengthy journey on his armored train for his first trip to Russia since 2019, according to Russian state-owned newswire Ria Novosti.“Russia has now risen to defend its state sovereignty and defend its security to counter the hegemonic forces that oppose Russia,” the North Korean ruler added, echoing the Kremlin’s propaganda used to justify its aggression in Ukraine. Kim’s visit came as Russia is seeking to buy artillery ammunition from North Korea for its invasion of Ukraine, where Moscow is estimated to have used between 10 and 11 million rounds over the past 18 months in its grinding full-scale invasion, a Western official told Reuters last week.Military analysts say a potential arms deal between Moscow and Pyongyang could help Russia replenish its depleted stocks, but is unlikely to change the tide of the war.Asked whether military cooperation was on the agenda, Putin said: “We’ll talk about all the issues slowly. There is time.”

Western sanctions on Russia could push the BRICS alliance closer— Sanctions imposed by the West on Russia are pushing the BRICS nations closer, said oil executives at the recent APPEC conference in Singapore.“Looking at the oil markets today ... the Western sanctions on Russia are working. They’re working in the sense that they’re creating less or lower revenues, lower invoice prices for Russian goods,” said Russell Hardy, CEO of energy trading firm Vitol.Last year, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, the Group of 7 nations introduced a oil price cap mechanism which limited revenue for the Kremlin’s war coffers while retaining Russian flows to the global market.Among the spate of sanctions were the European Union adoption of an anti-circumvention tool in June to restrict the sale, supply and export of specified sanctioned goods and technology to certain third countries acting as intermediaries for Russia. In May, the G7 announced the bloc’s intentions to limit trade in Russian diamonds However, these sanctions could also lead to other unintended knock-on consequences which Hardy considers “negative.”“The flip side of sanctions is that it is creating stronger bonds between BRICS countries, which in turn is a sort of an opposite force, of polar opposites, to Western politics,” he said.The BRICS alliance includes Russia, as well as Brazil, India, China and South Africa. The bloc met last week and invited oil heavyweights including Saudi Arabia and the UAE — as well as Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina — to join the alliance in 2024.

A Sign that the West Is Having to Compete for Emerging Economy Loyalty? Long Overdue Progress on Africa-Instigated International Tax Reform - After decades of resistance by rich nations, African governments successfully pushed for the United Nations to lead on international tax cooperation. All developing countries and fair-minded governments must rally behind this initiative. The official UN Secretary-General’s Report (SGR) was mandated by a UN General Assembly resolution, unusually adopted by consensus in late 2022.All countries must now work to ensure progress on financing to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and climate justice after major setbacks due to the pandemic, war and illegal sanctions.Rich countries had blocked an earlier tax cooperation initiative at the Addis Ababa Financing for Development (FfD) summit in mid-2015. With grossly inadequate funding, the SDGs were condemned to a still birth.The SGR on options to strengthen international tax cooperation is, arguably, the most important recent proposal – remarkably, from a beleaguered and much ignored UN – to enhance FfD for SDG progress.It proposes three options: a multilateral tax convention, an international tax cooperation framework convention, and an international tax cooperation framework. The first two would be legally binding, while the third would be voluntary in nature.In response, the European Network on Debt and Development (Eurodad) has made a proposal – supported by the Global Alliance for Tax Justice (GATJ) – noting: “It is time for governments to deliver … [and] … cooperate internationally to put an end to tax havens and ensure that tax systems become fair and effective.“International tax dodging is costing public budgets hundreds of billions of Euros in lost tax income every year, and we need an urgent, ambitious and truly international response to stop this devastating problem.“We believe the right instrument for the job is a UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation and we call on all governments to support this option…“For the last half century, the OECD has been leading the international decision-making on international tax rules and the result is an international tax system that is deeply ineffective, complex and full of loopholes, as well as biased in the interest of richer countries and tax havens.“Furthermore, the OECD process has never been international. Developing countries have not been able to participate on an equal footing, and the negotiations have been deeply opaque and closed to the public.“We need international tax negotiations to be transparent, fair and lead by a body where all countries participate as equals. The UN is the only place that can deliver that.”