Fed's Powell: higher rates may be needed, will move 'carefully' (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates further to cool still-too-high inflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday, promising to move with care at upcoming meetings as he noted both progress made on easing price pressures as well as risks from the surprising strength of the U.S. economy. While not as hawkish a message as he delivered this time a year ago at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Powell's remarks still delivered a punch, with investors now seeing one more rate hike by year-end more likely than not. "We will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data," Powell said in a keynote address. "It is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so." The Fed has raised rates by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022, and inflation by the Fed's preferred gauge has moved down to 3.3% from its peak of 7% last summer. Although the decline was a "welcome development," Powell said, inflation "remains too high." "We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective," he said. But with "signs that the economy may not be cooling as expected," including "especially robust" consumer spending and a "possibly rebounding" housing sector, Powell said that above-trend growth "could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy." His remarks showed the Fed wrestling with conflicting signals from an economy where inflation has by some readings slowed a lot without much cost to the economy - a good outcome, but one that has raised the possibility that Fed policy is not restrictive enough to complete the job. Unlike in last year's speech at the closely watched conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City - a terse warning of more tightening to come - Powell did not flag coming "pain" to households from further policy tightening. But neither did he signal that rate cuts were anywhere close, or nod as some policymakers have done to the need to adjust rates downward once inflation cools more sustainably. At day's end, futures contracts tied to the Fed policy rate were pricing in just less than a 20% chance of a rate hike in September, but a better-than-50% chance of the policy rate ending the year in a 5.5%-5.75% range, a quarter-point higher than the current range. Fed policymakers will also meet in November and December.
Powell says Fed has "long way to go" in reaching inflation goal -Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank still has "a long way to go" in its effort to bring inflation down to its 2% target.Speaking at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday morning, Powell acknowledged the progress that has been made incooling the economy since the Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022, but noted that further rate hikes could be in order."We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective," Powell said. Powell made little mention of the banking sector in the much anticipated remarks, but noted that lending standards have tightened and loan growth has slowed sharply, contributing to the progress made in curbing inflation. This trend has been noted among both banks and nonbanks, with declining net issuance of high-risk products, such as leveraged loans and speculative-grade and unrated corporate bonds. Interest rate-sensitive activities, such as home and auto lending, have proven responsive to the Fed's hikes, Powell said, with demand for both types of borrowing waning over the past year. Similarly, rental prices growth has been trending down as well, he added, though the broader category of housing services has lagged behind other economic indicators. Overall, headline inflation has tumbled from a peak of 7% in June 2022 to 3.3% last month. However, core PCE inflation — the Fed's preferred measure of price growth, which factors out volatile commodities such as food and energy — has seen less movement, declining from a 5.4% high in February 2022 to 4.3%. While the past two months have seen marked declines in price growth — a trend that has spurred optimism for a so-called soft landing, in which price stability is restored without tipping the economy into a recession — Powell said two months of clear progress are not enough to declare victory."The lower monthly readings for core inflation in June and July were welcome, but two months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal," he said. "We can't yet know the extent to which these lower readings will continue or where underlying inflation will settle over coming quarters. Twelve-month core inflation is still elevated, and there is substantial further ground to cover to get back to price stability." These comments feed mounting sentiment among financial market participants that higher interest rates could become a long-term fixture as the Fed looks to tamp down a resilient economy. This belief fueled a run-up in yields on 10-year Treasury bonds, which surged to their highest levels since November 2007. Rising yields on the 10-year typically indicate confidence in the U.S. economy, but in this case, that confidence also belies a belief that cooling the economy will be a protracted process. Powell pointed to higher than expected gross domestic product and consumer spending as signs that the economy is not absorbing tighter monetary policy as expected. Similarly, he said the labor market has remained unusually strong, with the employment rate remaining steadily low despite fewer job openings. If this above-trend economic growth continues, he said, the Fed would be more likely to consider further rate increases.Powell reiterated that the Fed's goal will remain 2%, though as he has stated before, the intention is not to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance until that point is reached. Instead, the Fed will aim to lower rates as the economy nears the 2% target. But, Powell said, identifying when exactly to start that process is elusive and comes with its own set of risks.Some economists have been warning for months that the Fed has already boosted rates too high and done so too quickly, arguing that the lagging effects of tighter monetary policy are bound to show up sooner or later, with potentially disastrous effects. Some have said the string of bank failures that occurred earlier this year were a direct result of the Fed's rapid policy shift.Powell addressed these concerns, saying the lagging effects of higher rates have not been fully realized. In the past, he has said the Fed would rather err on the side of tightening monetary policy too much, because the solution to that issue — cutting rates — is easier to implement than attempting to raise rates again after cutting too soon. For now, Powell said, the focus is on balancing both sets of risks carefully.
Fed Officials Will Parse Jobs Numbers to Assess Economy’s Momentum - Federal Reserve officials are likely to closely watch employment numbers on Friday for further signs that the economy’s momentum is slowing, an important consideration for them in deciding whether to lift interest rates further. Fed policymakers have sharply increased borrowing costs over the past year and a half, to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, from near-zero as recently as March 2022. Those moves were meant to slow the economy by making it more expensive to borrow to buy a house, purchase a car or expand a business. Now, central bankers are contemplating whether they need to raise interest rates one more time. Policymakers had previously forecast another move before the end of 2023. Most investors do not expect any increase to come at the Fed’s next meeting on Sept. 19-20, but officials have not ruled out a move. And even if central bankers leave rates unchanged in September as markets expect, policymakers will release a fresh set of economic projections showing how they expect the labor market, inflation and interest rates to shape up over coming months and years. That’s where incoming data reports — including the fresh jobs figures — could matter. Employers have been hiring at a surprisingly steady clip this year, given how much the Fed has raised interest rates. Policymakers will be gauging whether that trend continues to slow. And Fed officials will devote attention to how quickly wages are climbing. Central bankers have de-emphasized pay gains as a potential driver of inflation in recent months, suggesting instead that rapid wage growth probably signals that workers are trying to catch up with past inflation. Even so, many standard economic models suggest that if pay is climbing steeply, it could be hard to fully snuff out rapid inflation. Companies facing heftier labor costs will probably try to charge more to protect their profits, and workers who are earning more may find themselves capable of and willing to pay higher prices. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, recently highlighted slowing jobs growth, stable hours worked and slowing pay gains across a range of measures as signs that the labor market is getting into a better balance. “We expect this labor market rebalancing to continue,” he said, speaking last week in Wyoming. But, he warned in the speech, the Fed is watching to make sure the economy doesn’t heat back up in spite of higher interest rates, a development that could mean that borrowing costs need to go higher. “Evidence that the tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could also call for a monetary policy response,” Mr. Powell said.
Business Cycle Indicators for July - by Menzie Chinn -- With personal income, consumption, and manufacturing and trade industry sales released, no downturn yet. If consensus holds, the momentum continues into August. Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP and GDPNow. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), 2023Q2 is GDPNow of 8/31, all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q2 second release via FRED, Atlanta Fed, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (8/1/2023 release), and author’s calculations.Concerns that the CES series (nonfarm payroll employment) followed by NBER BCDC is seriously overstating employment were allayed by the preliminary benchmark revision.High frequency indicators, including the Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators show y/y growth of 1.94% for week ending 8/26.Caveat: All these indicators will be revised, particularly the official GDP series. That means the turning points as identified by analysts may very well evolve over time (and it’s also why the NBER BCDC waits a long time before making a turning point determination.)More tomorrow with the employment release, and monthly GDP.
Q2 GDP Growth Revised down to 2.1% Annual Rate - From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2023 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.4 percent (refer to "Updates to GDP"). The updated estimates primarily reflected downward revisions to private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by an upward revision to state and local government spending. The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending that were partly offset by decreases in exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 1.6% to 1.7%. Residential investment was revised up from -4.2% to -3.6%.
Q2 GDP Second Estimate: Real GDP at 2.1%, Slower Than Expected - Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in Q2 2023, according to the second estimate. The latest estimate is slower than the expected 2.4% growth but is a faster pace than the Q1 2023 GDP final estimate of 2.0%. Here is the opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023, according to the “second” estimate. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent. The increase in the second quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and business investment that were partly offset by a decrease in exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. [Full Release] Real gross domestic product (GDP) measures how fast or slowly the economy is growing and measures the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is considered the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of an economy's health. The Bureaus of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases real GDP data on a monthly basis. There are 3 versions released a month apart, advance, second, and final, each incorporating data that was previously unavailable. Economists can use GDP to determine whether an economy is growing or experiencing a recession. Here is a look at quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.17% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 2.45%.
The economy basically grew at a 2% rate throughout the first half of the year - The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.1% annual pace from April through June, showing continued resilience in the face of higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, the government said Wednesday in a downgrade from its initial estimate.The government had previously estimated that the economy expanded at a 2.4% annual rate last quarter.The Commerce Department’s second estimate of growth last quarter marked a slight acceleration from a 2% annual growth rate from January through March. Though the economy has been slowed by the Federal Reserve’s strenuous drive to tame inflation with interest rate hikes, it has managed to keep expanding, with employers still hiring and consumers still spending. Wednesday’s report on the nation’s gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services — showed that growth last quarter was driven by upticks in consumer spending, business investment and outlays by state and local governments.Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy, rose at a 1.7% annual pace in the April-June quarter — a decent gain, though down from 4.2% in the first three months of 2023. Excluding housing, business investment rose at a strong 6.1% annual rate last quarter. Investment in housing, hurt by higher mortgage rates, fell in the second quarter.The American economy — the world’s largest — has proved surprisingly durable in the midst of the Fed’s aggressive campaign to stamp out a resurgence of inflation, which last year hit a four-decade high. Since March of last year, the Fed has raised its benchmark rate 11 times, making borrowing for everything from cars to homes to business expansions much more expensive and prompting widespread predictions of a coming recession. Since peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, year-over-year inflation has fallen more or less steadily. Last month, it came in at 3.2% — a significant improvement though still above the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core inflation in July matched the smallest monthly rise in nearly two years. Wednesday’s GDP report contained some potentially encouraging news for the Fed: One measure of prices — the personal consumption expenditures index — rose at a 2.5% annual rate last quarter, down from a 4.1% pace in the January-March quarter and the smallest increase since the end of 2020.Since the Fed began raising rates, the economy has been bolstered by a consistently healthy job market. Employers have added a robust average of 258,000 jobs a month this year, though that average has slowed over the past three months to 218,000.On Tuesday, a report from the government added to evidence that the job market is gradually weakening: It showed that employers posted far fewer job openings in July and that the number of people who quit their jobs tumbled for a second straight month. (When fewer people quit their jobs, it typically suggests that they aren’t as confident in finding a new one.) Still, job openings remain well above their pre-pandemic levels. The nation’s unemployment rate, at 3.5%, is still barely above a half-decade low. And when the government issues the August jobs report on Friday, economists polled by the data firm FactSet think it will show that while hiring slowed, employers still added 170,000 jobs.The combination of tumbling inflation, continued economic growth and slower but steady hiring has raised hopes for a rare “soft landing.” That’s a scenario in which the Fed manages to conquer high inflation without causing a painful recession.Wednesday’s government report, its second of three estimates of last quarter’s growth, will be followed by a final calculation late next month.
House conservatives flirt with shutdown: ‘So be it’ - Congress is racing the clock to fund the government ahead of a Sept. 30 deadline as the threat of a shutdown looms — but to some House conservatives, a shutdown isn’t much of a threat at all. A handful of hard-line Republicans are brushing off — or even embracing — the possibility of a shutdown, arguing that bringing the government to a screeching halt is more acceptable than allowing the country to continue on its current spending trajectory. “If a shutdown occurs, then so be it if they’re not gonna stick to what [Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.)] agreed to, which is starting on a path of financial security, which we don’t have,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) told The Hill in an interview. Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) — who in July said “we should not fear a government shutdown” — went even further when talking to The Hill last week. “Eighty-five percent or so of the government continues to operate, and most Americans won’t even miss it,” Good said. “And if that’s the leverage that we need to utilize to force the Democrats to accept spending cuts and an end to the harmful policies that are, again, crushing the American people — I mean, then we need to do that.” While the Republicans flirting with a shutdown are a tiny minority within the GOP conference, they add another layer of complication for McCarthy as he works to keep the lights on in Washington without angering his right flank, who are pushing for steeper spending cuts and policy additions as part of the appropriations process. McCarthy is asking House Republicans to help him pass a “short-term” continuing resolution, or CR, to fund the government beyond Sept. 30 as both chambers slog through the government funding process. The House has cleared just one of 12 regular appropriations bills, while the Senate has not gotten any past the finish line. The House will be in session for just 11 legislative days until the end of fiscal 2023. “I don’t think anybody wants a government shutdown,” McCarthy told reporters in Syracuse, N.Y., last week. As the calendar inches closer to the end-of-September deadline, McCarthy is utilizing an argument that could appeal to some conservatives: warning about the ramifications a shutdown may have on the conference’s investigations into the Biden administration. He cautioned that the probes into Hunter Biden and the Biden family’s foreign business dealings — which McCarthy said could soon develop into an impeachment inquiry as a “natural step forward” — would be halted. “So I would actually like to have a short-term CR, only to make our arguments stronger,” McCarthy said on Fox’s “Sunday Morning Futures.” “If we shut down, all the government shuts it down, investigation and everything else. It hurts the American public.” House Oversight and Accountability Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.), who is leading the House’s probe into the Biden family businesses, also warned about the effects of a shutdown. “Any type of shutdown would … interfere with our investigation. Any excuse the Biden administration can give not to be transparent with the House Oversight Committee, they’re gonna take that,” Comer said Tuesday on Fox Business.
US Announces $250 Million Arms Package for Ukraine - The Biden administration on Tuesday announced a new $250 million arms package for Ukraine that includes HIMARS ammunition, AIM-9 missiles, artillery rounds, and various types of other military equipment. The $250 million package is being paid for using funds made available by an “accounting error.” The Pentagon claimed that it overvalued arms it had been sending to Ukraine, freeing up an additional $6.2 billion to spend on fueling the proxy war against Russia. The first arms package using these funds was announced on August 14. The arms package announced on Tuesday uses the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which allows the US to arm Ukraine with weapons directly from Pentagon stockpiles. According to the Pentagon, the package includes:
- AIM-9M missiles for air defense
- Additional ammunition for HIMARS
- 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds
- Mine clearing equipment
- Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles
- Javelin and other anti-armor systems and rockets
- Hydra-70 Rockets
- Over 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition
- Armored medical treatment vehicles and High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV) ambulances
- Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing
- Spare parts, maintenance, and other field equipment
The Pentagon also released a fact sheet that said the US has pledged over $43 billion in military equipment to Ukraine since Russia invaded on February 24, 2022. Congress has authorized a total of $113 billion in spending on the war, which also includes economic aid, money for the Pentagon to replenish stockpiles of weapons that have been sent to Ukraine, and funding for US troops deployments in Eastern Europe. The White House recently asked Congress to authorize another $24 billion in spending on the proxy war.
Biden Looks to Prevent Future President From Ending Ukraine War - The Biden administration is working to reach a deal with Ukraine for long-term military support to keep backing the war with Russia that would be difficult for a future president to exit, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday. The effort is part of a commitment made by G7 nations at the recent NATO summit in Vilnius to negotiate their own bilateral security deals with Ukraine. Besides the G7 nations, 18 other countries have agreed to provide long-term military support for Kyiv. The idea of the long-term commitment is to show Russia that it can’t wait out the Biden administration. The Journal report reads: “Western officials are looking for ways to lock in pledges of support and limit future governments’ abilities to backtrack, amid fears in European capitals that Donald Trump, if he recaptures the White House, would seek to scale back aid.” Trump, who escalated US involvement in Ukraine during his term bytaking the step to provide Javelin missiles, has said he would end the Ukraine war within “24 hours” if elected in 2024. The former president is the current frontrunner for the Republican nomination. The Journal report acknowledged that the Biden administration could not legally bind a future president from exiting a deal with Ukraine, but Republican hawks in Congress could make it difficult. During his time as president, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, but the majority of Republicans in Congress supported exiting the agreement. A US official told the Journal that one proposal being considered for Ukraine would be a memorandum of understanding (MOU), which would not require congressional approval. President Biden has previously floated the idea of an “Israel model” for Ukraine. The US provides Israel with $3.8 billion in military aid each year under a 10-year MOU but does not provide mutual defense guarantees. The Journal report said that French officials have suggested military aid commitments for Ukraine should be over a four-year period.
US Victim of Own Propaganda in Ukraine War -- The whitewashing of the historical context for the war in Ukraine has resulted in a profoundly embarrassing episode for the United States embassy in Prague. An Aug. 21 Tweet from the embassy with a message roughly translated from Czech to mean “Aggression always comes from the Kremlin,” showed two photographs: the first displayed Soviet tanks in the streets of Prague in 1968. The second showed fire burning in front of a building and was marked “Odesa 2023.” Twitter users were quick to point out the embassy’s error. “The bottom photo is from 2014 Odessa Clashes where pro federalism (mostly pro Russian) got burned alive in clash with Ukrainian nationalist(s) while police and fireman stood watching. To this day no one was jailed,” wrote one commenter. Someone else wrote: “You vile people, twisting the history to whitewash the crimes of the Ukrainian far-right against peaceful Ukrainians, and in fact using their crimes with the diametrically opposite meaning!” The embassy got the message. “Thanks for the heads up and apologies for the incorrect use of the graphic. We wanted to illustrate the ongoing Russian aggression against Ukraine and we chose the wrong photo,” it wrote. That prompted another Twitter user to sarcastically respond: “You wanted to illustrate the Ukrainian aggression against the Russian people and you chose the right photo.” The embassy then deleted the Tweet. It never acknowledged the event depicted in the bottom photo. That signifies either ignorance of the event or intentional suppression of it. The massacre in Odessa is a key point in understanding the cause of the war and has been buried by the West, creating a propagandized narrative about Russia’s intervention.
US OKs First-Ever Foreign Military Financing Arms Package for Taiwan - The Biden administration has approved the first-ever military aid package for Taiwan using Foreign Military Financing (FMF), a State Department program that gives foreign governments money to buy US arms.The Associated Press noted that FMF is typically reserved for sovereign, independent states, and the US does not recognize Taiwan as a country. US officials told AP that the only other time FMF has been used for a non-nation-state was assistance to the African Union, a bloc of 55 African states.The FMF package is worth $80 million, but the administration did not disclose its contents in a notification to Congress. The 2023 National Defense Authorization Act included $2 billion in FMF funds for Taiwan. This marks the first time the funds have been used.The assistance will infuriate China as Beijing is opposed to military ties between Washington and Taipei, especially new unprecedented types of support. In July, the Biden administration provided Taiwan with a $345 million arms package using the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) for the first time.The PDA allows President Biden to send weapons directly from US military stockpiles, which is the primary way the US has been arming Ukraine. The 2023 NDAA includes $1 billion in PDA funds for Taiwan.Since Washington severed diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979, the US has sold weapons to Taiwan but has never financed the purchases or provided weapons free of charge until this year.China hawks say the US needs to arm Taiwan “to the teeth” to prevent a Chinese attack on the island, but China has increased military pressure on Taiwan in response to the growing US military and diplomatic support for the island.
US Launches Airstrike in Somalia, Claims 13 al-Shabaab Killed - The US launched an airstrike in Somalia early in the morning on Saturday, US Africa Command (AFRICOM) said in a press release. AFRICOM said the strike was launched about 28 miles northwest of the southern port city of Kismaayo. The command said its “initial assessment” found 13 al-Shabaab fighters were killed and no civilians were harmed. However, the Pentagon is notorious for undercounting civilian casualties, especially in Somalia. AFRICOM said the strike was launched in support of the US-backed Mogadishu-based government, whose forces were engaged with al-Shabaab on the ground. The last known US airstrike in Somalia was conducted by AFRICOM on August 15. US airstrikes in Somalia escalated in 2022, the year President Biden ordered the deployment of up to 500 troops to the country, and the US-backed government launched an offensive against al-Shabaab. The US military hypes the threat of al-Shabaab due to its size and al-Qaeda affiliation, but it’s widely believed the group does not have ambitions outside of Somalia. AFRICOM describes al-Shabaab as “the largest and most kinetically active al-Qaeda network in the world and has proved both its will and capability to attack partner and US forces and threaten US security interests.” Al-Shabaab was born out of a US-backed Ethiopian invasion in 2006 that toppled the Islamic Courts Union, a coalition of Muslim groups who briefly held power in Mogadishu after ousting CIA-backed warlords. Al-Shabaab was the radical offshoot of the Islamic Courts Union. The group’s first recorded attack was in 2007, and it wasn’t until 2012 that al-Shabaab pledged loyalty to al-Qaeda after years of fighting the US and its proxies.
Iran Summons Swiss Diplomat Over Iranian Oil Stolen by US - On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said Tehran summoned a Swiss diplomat over the discharging of a tanker carrying Iranian oil that was seized by the United States. Kanaani said Iran summoned the chargé d’affaires at the Swiss embassy to express “strong objection” to the move to Switzerland, which acts as a mediator between the US and Iran.“The subject of the seizure of an Iranian oil consignment by the US … is a completely unproductive action,” Kanaani said. He noted how the US was expressing interest in a renewed nuclear deal while also increasing sanctions and seizing Iranian oil shipments. The tanker Suez Rajan was estimated to be carrying 800,000 barrels of Iranian oil and was forced by the US to sail to Texas instead of China under the pretext of sanctions enforcement. The Suez Rajan transferred the cargo to another tanker, MR Euphrates, which is currently moored in Houston.The Suez Rajan was stuck off the coast of Galveston for months as American companies were hesitant to unload the cargo due to fears of Iranian reprisals. The US seizure of the Suez Rajan in April provoked the Iranian seizure of two tankers in the Persian Gulf.The US responded to the Iranian seizures by increasing its military presence in the region, including sending over 3,000 US Marines and Navy sailors as part of an Amphibious Readiness Group/Marine Expeditionary Unit. The US is also considering putting armed troops on commercial vessels.
Report: US, Israel to Conduct Joint Drills Simulating Attacks on Iran - The US and Israel will simulate striking Iranian nuclear facilities as part of a series of joint military exercises that will be held in the coming months, The Times of Israel reported Wednesday, citing Israeli TV.Back in January, the US and Israel conducted the Juniper Oak exercises, which were the largest-ever joint drills between the two nations. The Israeli military said Juniper Oak was just the first of a series of drills that the US and Israel will hold this year.Israel’s Channel 12 reported one of the upcoming drills would simulate Israel facing a multi-front missile attack that will involve the US deployment of Patriot missile systems. Another drill will rehearse a joint US-Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.The plan to simulate attacks on Iran has not been publicly confirmed by the US or Israel, but the two nations have previously rehearsed bombing Iran, including during drills that were held over the Mediterranean Sea in November 2022.While nuclear facilities would be the target in the simulated drills, there’s no sign Iran is looking to build a nuclear weapon, which was affirmed by a recent US intelligence report. Often missing from the conversation about Iran’s civilian nuclear program is the fact that Israel has a secret nuclear weapons program and an arsenal of nukes that the US does not acknowledge exists.The report comes amid heightened tensions between the US and Iran in the Persian Gulf. The US seizure of a tanker carrying Iranian oil in April provoked two Iranian tanker seizures, and the US responded by beefing up its military presence in the region.
US Knew Saudis Were Slaughtering African Migrants at Border But Kept Quiet - The Biden administration has been aware since last year that Saudi border guards were slaughtering African migrants on Saudi Arabia’s border with Yemen but kept quiet about the killings, The New York Times reported on Saturday. Sources told the Times that American diplomats were made aware of the news last fall, around the time the US was publicly condemning Riyadh for agreeing to OPEC+ oil production cuts. The administration did not make any public comments about the reported killings. The administration received more details about the atrocities in December 2022 when the UN presented information about Saudi forces shooting, shelling, and abusing Ethiopian migrants at the border, but the US still kept quiet. After Human Rights Watch released a report last week that said Saudi border guards killed hundreds of Ethiopian migrants between March 2022 and June 2023, the Biden administration insisted that it “raised concerns” with Riyadh about the report. For their part, Riyadh denied the allegations.Last month, the Mixed Migration Center (MMC) released a similar reportthat said Saudi border forces killed at least 800 Ethiopian migrants, and over 1,700 were injured. The Saudi guards used mortar shells and small arms to attack the Ethiopians. There were also reports of rape and torture.According to The Washington Post, Saudi border guards are trained by the US as part of military cooperation between the two nations. The mass slaughter of civilians by US-backed Saudi forces is nothing new, as Riyadh frequently targeted civilians in its war in Yemen using US-made bombs and aircraft. In January 2022, Saudi airstrikes hit a migrant detention center in Sadaa, Yemen, killing at least 91 civilians and injuring 236 more.Since last fall, when President Biden vowed “consequences” for Riyadh over the oil cuts, his administration has backed off on its criticism of the kingdom as it seeks to clinch a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal. Saudi Arabia is demanding new security guarantees from the US as a condition for normalization that could go as far as NATO’s Article 5, which would mean Washington treating attacks on the kingdom as attacks on the US.
Congressman files article of impeachment against U.S. Defense secretary - U.S. Rep. Cory Mills, R-Florida, made good on his promise earlier this year to file articles of impeachment against Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. On Friday, he filed one article of impeachment against Austin alleging high crimes and misdemeanors. Mills appears to be the first to file an article of impeachment against a Defense secretary in U.S. history. “High-level officials in this administration blatantly ignored intel that Americans and our allied partners in Kabul would be left behind in harm’s way unless the U.S. corrected course in our withdrawal" from Afghanistan, Mills, a veteran of the U.S. Army, said. "As a result, nearly 200 people, including 13 American service members, were murdered at Abbey Gate in Kabul, Afghanistan two years ago. “Because of this clear dereliction of duty, today I am introducing articles of impeachment for Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. It’s not enough for Congress to hold committee hearings. We must start taking real action to address the complete failure of this administration.” He filed a House resolution on Friday citing the article, one day before August 26, which “marks two years to the day that we lost 13 of our brave service members. The fact that it has been two entire years without any member of this administration being held accountable is unfathomable. That changes today.” Article One states “Dereliction of duty resulting in abandonment of Americans in Afghanistan. In his role as Secretary of Defense, and in violation of his constitutional oath to defend and secure our country and uphold the Constitution, taken on January 22, 2021, Lloyd James Austin III engaged in high crimes and misdemeanors through his dereliction of his duties and intentional abandonment of Americans in Afghanistan.” The impeachment resolution cites events that occurred on July 1, 2021, at Bagram Air Base under Austin’s direction, including freeing from prison a Taliban and ISIS terrorist who detonated a bomb outside of Hamid Karzai International Airport, which killed 13 American service members. Because of Austin’s conduct, the resolution states, he’s “forsaken his sworn duties to the United States of America, its national security, and its people and has acted in a manner grossly incompatible with the Constitution” warranting “impeachment and trial and removal from office.”
McCarthy says he won’t open impeachment inquiry without House vote - Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on Friday said he would only open a formal impeachment inquiry into President Biden with a full House vote — shutting down talk of Republicans potentially moving forward without one. “To open an impeachment inquiry is a serious matter, and House Republicans would not take it lightly or use it for political purposes. The American people deserve to be heard on this matter through their elected representatives,” McCarthy told Breitbart News on Friday. “That’s why, if we move forward with an impeachment inquiry, it would occur through a vote on the floor of the People’s House and not through a declaration by one person.” McCarthy’s statement follows a Monday CNN report that said Republicans discussed whether they could move forward on an impeachment inquiry without having a full House vote in order to get around a lack of GOP support. While McCarthy has said that he sees an impeachment inquiry as a “natural step forward” in the House GOP’s investigations into Biden and his family’s foreign business dealings, some moderate members have balked, saying that they do not see enough evidence to take that step. There is no constitutional requirement to vote to authorize an inquiry. But not taking a vote would contradict McCarthy’s stance from 2019, when he urged Democrats to take a formal vote to authorize an impeachment inquiry into former President Trump. Taking a full House vote would also aid McCarthy in showing full conference buy-in, as well as help boost the legal argument that impeachment could help Republicans produce more information from the Biden administration in court. Any impeachment inquiry vote would need support from a majority of the chamber. With the slim House majority and likely unified opposition from House Democrats, McCarthy would be able to lose just four GOP votes on authorizing an impeachment inquiry, assuming all members vote. The White House has said Biden was not involved in his family’s business dealings, and Republicans have not shown that Biden directly benefited from those business dealings while he was vice president or made policy decisions based on his family’s businesses.
McConnell freezes again during Kentucky press conference, office says he was 'lightheaded' – Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell froze for nearly 30 seconds during a press conference Wednesday, an episode his office attributed to him being “momentarily lightheaded.”The Senate minority leader, speaking in Kentucky, froze while answering questions from reporters. Aides stepped in to help McConnell out and repeat questions. Before McConnell froze, he was asked about whether he planned to run for reelection in 2026. “Leader McConnell felt momentarily lightheaded and paused during his press conference today,” a spokesperson for his office said. An aide added that McConnell planned to consult a physician before any more events.Wednesday’s episode was McConnell’s second freeze while talking to reporters in public. In July, McConnell abruptly stopped his opening remarks at an afternoon press conference at the Capitol, causing alarm when he left for a few minutes and then returned to answer questions.His first freeze jolted the Senate GOP. Republican lawmakers like Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz stated in July that they weren’t concerned about McConnell’s health.After the July incident, McConnell quashed speculation about whether he would finish out this Congress as GOP leader. A spokesperson for the Senate minority leader said in a statement to POLITICO at the time that “Leader McConnell appreciates the continued support of his colleagues, and plans to serve his full term in the job they overwhelmingly elected him to do.”McConnell is the longest-serving Senate party leader of all time, and his term in office ends in 2026. There have been no public demands from GOP senators to reassess their leadership.
McConnell quickly convenes with allies after second public freeze - Mitch McConnell’s latest health scare guarantees Republican senators will return from recess next week just as they left — publicly and privately discussing the future of their 81-year-old leader. The Senate GOP leader paused for roughly 30 seconds during a press availability in Kentucky, a little more than a month after a similar episode in the Capitol in late July. His office attributed both episodes to lightheadedness, adding that McConnell would consult on Wednesday with a physician as a precautionary measure. That explanation may not stem questions when the Senate reconvenes next week. While worries about McConnell’s first freeze had faded somewhat during August recess, with even some critics publicly defending his abilities, the second incident is sure to trigger increased scrutiny of McConnell’s hold on the conference, as well as who might succeed him. Senators quickly sought more information about McConnell’s health after the incident, according to one person familiar with the dynamics. Shortly after the Wednesday incident, McConnell held calls with his closest allies including Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), Conference Chair John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), according to people familiar with the calls. All of them are potential successors to McConnell. “The leader sounded like his usual self and was in good spirits,” said Ryan Wrasse, a spokesperson for Thune. McConnell told Cornyn he was doing well, a Cornyn spokesperson said. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), the No. 5 GOP leader, also spoke with McConnell on Wednesday and said afterward via a spokesperson that McConnell sounded fine.
Greene calls McConnell unfit for office after 2nd freeze-up Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) called Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) “not fit for office” after he appeared to freeze up at a podium Wednesday for the second time in recent weeks while taking questions from reporters. “Severe aging health issues and/or mental health incompetence in our nation’s leaders MUST be addressed,” Greene wrote on Wednesday on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. She attached a clip from the incident earlier in the day. “Biden, McConnell, Feinstein, and Fetterman are examples of people who are not fit for office and it’s time to be serious about it,” Greene continued, comparing McConnell’s freeze-up to what she suggested were health-related conditions affecting President Biden, along with Democratic Sens. Dianne Feinstein (Calif.) and John Fetterman (Pa.). Lawmakers have expressed similar health concerns about Feinstein’s mental capabilities, with a small number in her party even calling on her to resign. Fetterman checked himself into a hospital for several weeks to get treatment for clinical depression. He also survived a stroke during his campaign. Biden is the oldest president in history to be elected to the White House and has acknowledged in interviews that questions about his age are “totally legitimate” but said he’s fully capable of running for reelection. According to the White House, his doctor has given him a clean bill of health. In a subsequent post, Greene raised the possibility of invoking the 25th Amendment, which addresses succession and disability as it applies to the president. “These politician’s staff and family members should be ashamed of themselves by enabling and allowing their loved ones to remain in office all to hold power. We are talking about our country’s national security and it’s all at stake! 25th amendment and other measures need to be on the table,” she wrote. Greene’s comments echo some arguments expressed by members of both parties, who have raised concerns about an aging Senate, both in terms of mental acuity and in terms of reflecting the demographics of their constituents. The median age in the U.S. Senate is 65.3 years, according to Pew Research Center.
Clock ticking for regulators to Congressional Review Act-proof new rules — As Congress stirs back to life after its August recess, regulators are now up against a looming Congressional Review Act deadline to finish their most important rulemakings. Should Congress and the administration flip to Republican control in 2024, the incoming Congress would be able to initiate a Congressional Review Act nullification of any rules issued within the last 60 legislative days of the prior Congress. Legislative days can be tricky to predict because of unscheduled breaks, campaign breaks and emergency sessions, but with all of that being considered the deadline for Biden's regulators to finalize rules and publish them in the Federal Register would be in May or June of 2024. The Congressional Review Act dynamic is always present in any election year, but it's especially important this election cycle now that regulators have proposed a slew of important regulations in the wake of this spring's bank failures — rules that would have a big impact on bank capital, fee income and supervisory stringency. Here are the top rules under consideration by the Biden administration that regulators will have to compete ahead of that May/June Congressional Review Act deadline.
US Treasury, IRS Release Proposed Rules on Wages, Apprenticeship under IRA The USA Department of the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) have released proposed rules and FAQs on wage and apprenticeship requirements under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), aiming to encourage good pay for clean energy jobs. Most IRA incentives entail the prevailing wage and registered apprenticeship requirements under the law, the Treasury noted in a press statement. These incentives include the Production Tax Credit, the Investment Tax Credit, and the credits for Carbon Oxide Sequestration and Clean Hydrogen. The proposed rules would provide employers and workers with more clarity and direction on proposed IRS guardrails, incentivize employers to adopt worker-centric practices, and ensure compliance is streamlined, the statement said. The proposed rules would also provide incentives for taxpayers to “use qualifying Project Labor Agreements that meet certain criteria to meet the prevailing wage and apprenticeship requirements, enabling this well-established tool to be used more extensively in the clean energy industry”, the statement said. Further, the proposed rules contain guidance regarding “how to correct failures to meet the requirements and substantiate compliance to ensure workers are well-paid and expand the clean energy workforce”, according to the statement. To qualify for increased credit or deduction amounts of certain clean energy tax incentives, taxpayers will generally need to “pay laborers and mechanics employed in construction, alteration or repair no less than applicable prevailing wage rates” and “employ apprentices from registered apprenticeship programs for a certain number of hours”, according to an update on the IRS website regarding the IRA. The update also states that by meeting the prevailing wage and apprenticeship requirements under the IRA, taxpayers can increase the base amounts of these incentives by five times.
US Treasury unveils wage, apprenticeship guidance for clean energy tax credits (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday released detailed guidance on wage and apprenticeship requirements for projects using clean energy tax credits, providing flexibility for fixing underpayment errors and for projects unable to hire apprentices. The proposed new Internal Revenue Service rules for construction of clean energy production and manufacturing facilities build on initial guidance last year in the Inflation Reduction Act, which has enabled the announcement of more than $110 billion worth of clean energy manufacturing investments. By paying the prevailing wage based on Labor Department rules and ensuring the use of qualified apprentices, companies can earn five times the baseline value of tax credits for IRA-qualified projects. "The notice of proposed rulemaking (that) Treasury's releasing today provides employers and workers with more clarity on the IRS's guardrails, incentivizing employers to adopt worker centered practices and ensures compliance is streamlined," U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo told reporters. Among key new details released are provisions to waive penalties for companies that pay less than an area's prevailing wage if they correct the error within 30 days of becoming aware it, or before they apply for the tax credit. The company must pay back wages, plus interest. For qualifying facilities being built with project labor agreements, which often involve strong union job protections, developers can correct wage errors without penalty if they do so before applying for tax credits. Treasury officials said this would most likely encourage the use of more project labor agreements on IRA job sites. Another key provision announced on Tuesday is a "good faith" exception from using registered apprenticeship programs if there is none available in the project's location. The act requires 12.5% of project labor hours to be performed by qualified apprentices for construction beginning in 2023 and 15% for those starting in 2024 or thereafter - provisions aimed at incentivizing the training of more skilled construction workers.Clean energy executives have raised concerns about the potential for labor shortages and a lack of apprenticeship programs in some areas.Under the new guidance, project owners can still qualify for the full tax credit value if they demonstrate a "good faith effort" to meet the requirements, including making written requests to qualified programs.The Treasury and IRS will collect written public comments on the proposed rules until Oct. 30, with a public hearing scheduled for Nov. 21.
Biden Labor Department moves to expand overtime pay for millions - The Biden administration on Wednesday proposed giving raises to more than 3 million workers by making them eligible for overtime pay. The move by the Department of Labor comes more than eight years after the Obama administration embarked upon a similar effort to boost wages by rewriting overtime eligibility rules under the Fair Labor Standards Act. Workers making less than about $55,000 annually would be automatically entitled to time-and-a-half pay under DOL’s proposal, up from $35,568 set in 2019 under former President Donald Trump. The Obama-era plan initially proposed setting a $50,440 floor before settling on $47,476 annually — though a federal judge in Texas blocked the rule from taking effect. DOL estimates that the change would result in higher wages for 3.6 million workers. “For over 80 years, a cornerstone of workers’ rights in this country is the right to a 40-hour workweek, the promise that you get to go home after 40 hours or you get higher pay for each extra hour that you spend laboring away from your loved ones,” acting Labor Secretary Julie Su said in a release. “Workers deserve to continue to share in the economic prosperity of Bidenomics.” Under the FLSA, employers must show that a worker is salaried, makes at least a certain amount of money and works in a “bona fide executive, administrative or professional capacity,” in order to be exempt from hourly overtime requirements. The Biden proposal, if finalized, will likely face similar legal arguments to the ones presented against the Obama overtime rule. In that case, Judge Amos Mazzant ruled that DOL exceeded its authority by raising the salary threshold so drastically that it “effectively eliminates” the third part of that test. Employer groups, whose members would likely see increased labor costs as a result of DOL’s proposed policy, quickly lined up in opposition. “Massive increases in labor costs like this simply cannot be absorbed by businesses,” the Partnership to Protect Workplace Opportunity said in a statement. “It will reduce opportunities, especially for recent graduates and younger professionals hoping to begin their careers.” DOL’s proposal also includes a mechanism to update the salary threshold every three years by linking it to the 35th percentile of income. The 2016 proposal was tied to the 40th percentile, which the department said at the time echoed the level when the overtime standard was first enacted under President Franklin Roosevelt. It would also undo a change made in the 2019 rule that set a separate salary level for the U.S. territories of the Virgin Islands, Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.
Continued chaos at the southern border -By U.S. Rep. Tom Cole, R-Oklahoma -- President Joe Biden and his administration have single-handedly created a historic, disastrous situation at our southern border by eliminating and reversing policies formerly put in place. The swarm of migrants at the open border has caused an extremely overwhelmed Customs and Border Patrol (CBP), and mayors of border communities continue to beg for assistance and leadership from our commander in chief as they have dealt with this security and humanitarian crisis for more than two years now.On his first day in office, President Biden halted construction of the border wall. While physical barriers are not the only means of enforcement, they are certainly an effective tool for stopping the flow of illegal immigrants in certain areas. Later, he ended the Migrant Protection Protocols or "Remain in Mexico" program that directs migrants seeking asylum to stay in Mexico until their hearings in the U.S convene. The president also restarted the dangerous "catch and release" program that ties the hands of law enforcement from detaining and deporting criminals. And this year, he allowed Title 42 to expire, a critical tool that allowed border patrol agents to turn migrants away for potential risk of spreading communicable diseases. These misguided policies are clearly viewed as an invitation for illegal immigrants to swarm the border and try to get in since the likelihood of successful entry and getting to stay in the United States is now much higher.Since President Biden assumed office, CBP has reported that more than 5.6 million migrants have illegally crossed the southern border, and countless have even evaded apprehension and escaped into our country. CBP has also reported that all four major Border Patrol sectors are now nearing or are over capacity due to the increase in migrant encounters along the border. Securing the southern border and restoring safety for Americans and our border patrol agents remains one of House Republicans’ top priorities. And earlier this year, House Republicans passed H.R. 2, the Secure the Border Act of 2023. This legislation is vital to securing the border and combating illegal immigration by providing for necessary resources including resuming border wall construction and giving border patrol agents necessary resources, equipment and manpower they need. It would also reform fraud and abuse in the asylum process, prevent catch and release practices and establish new penalties for visa overstays.
DeSantis Pledges to Send Military Into Mexico to Fight Cartels on 'Day One' - Florida Governor Ron Desantis said on Wednesday night that he would send the military into Mexico to fight drug cartels on “day one” of his presidency if he wins the 2024 presidential election.At the Republican presidential debate in Milwaukee, DeSantis was asked if he would support sending in US special forces to take out fentanyl labs and other drug cartel operations. “Yes, and I will do it on day one,” he replied.“We have to reestablish the rule of law and we have to defend our people. The president of the United States has got to use all available powers as commander in chief to protect our country,” DeSantis said.DeSantis claimed cartels are “killing tens of thousands of our fellow citizens” and said he would treat them as “foreign terrorist organizations.”Taking military action across the border would dramatically expand the decades-old failed war on drugs, but the idea of invading or bombing Mexico in response to the large number of overdoses in the US is becoming increasingly popular among Republicans. Other 2024 hopefuls have called for military action against cartels, including the frontrunner, former President Trump.Earlier this year, Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and John Kennedy (R-LA) introduced a bill to designate Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, which has a total of six cosponsors. Graham said the purpose of the legislation was to “set the stage” for military intervention in Mexico.Another bill introduced by Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) would authorize the president to use military force against “those responsible for trafficking fentanyl or a fentanyl-related substance into the United States or carrying out other related activities that cause regional destabilization in the Western Hemisphere.” The Crenshaw legislation has received 21 cosponsors.
Hurricane Idalia: DeSantis warns pillagers: 'You loot, we shoot' - Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Wednesday afternoon reissued a pointed warning to pillagers reportedly making rounds in areas devastated by Hurricane Idalia: “you loot, we shoot.”“People have a right to defend their property — this part of Florida, you got a lot of advocates and proponents of the Second Amendment,” DeSantis said during an afternoon press conference.“You never know what’s behind that door if you go break into somebody’s house and you’re trying to loot, these are people that are going to be able to defend themselves and their families,” the governor added. “We are going to hold you accountable from a law enforcement perspective at a minimum, and it could even be worse than that depending on what’s behind that door.”When responding to the deadly Hurricane Ian, which hit Florida in September 2022 and left more than 140 people dead, the governor remarked that he had seen a sign that displayed the “you loot, we shoot” line, raising it as a message of law-and-order during a period of storm-driven chaos. He also made the comments days after a racially-motivated mass shooting in Jacksonville left three Black residents dead.DeSantis, who has temporarily paused his presidential campaign to steer Florida’s response to Idalia, has hosted several press conferences throughout the day to update the public on the storm’s progress. While he’s not officially on the campaign trail, manning the storm’s response poses a major test for his candidacy, as it thrusts his leadership and decision-making as his state’s chief executive under the public spotlight. The storm has knocked out powerfor hundreds of thousands of people and will likely cost the state millions in damages.
FEMA forced to restrict disaster spending because of low funds - The Biden administration has stopped helping states rebuild from past disasters with money from the federal government’s main emergency fund, which is nearing depletion from dozens of storms and wildfires this year. The restrictions will put pressure on Congress to approve President Joe Biden’s Aug. 10 request for $12 billion in emergency money to replenish the disaster fund. Speaking to reporters at the White House on Wednesday afternoon, Biden stopped short of vowing that the federal government would provide sufficient disaster aid during the current hurricane season. “If I can’t do that, I’m going to point out why,” Biden said, without explicitly saying he would blame lawmakers for stalling or rejecting his $12 billion request. “How can we not respond? My God.” Under new spending restrictions, the federal disaster fund can be spent only to address life-threatening emergencies such as Hurricane Idalia, which swept into the northern Florida Gulf Coast early Wednesday. Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell said at the White House on Tuesday that FEMA is using its remaining disaster funds only “for critical response efforts to Idalia, the Maui fires and any other extreme weather events.” FEMA said in an internal memo obtained by POLITICO’s E&E News that its disaster fund is “approaching exhaustion” and that restrictions are needed due to “the current disaster environment with a major fire and multiple hurricanes.” The agency imposed the spending restriction Tuesday with little notice. The change does not affect FEMA aid to individuals or payments from the agency’s flood-insurance program.
Trump tells Glenn Beck he’d ‘lock up’ political opponents if reelected - Former President Trump told conservative media personality Glenn Beck he would prosecute his political enemies if elected president again. “You said in 2016, you know, ‘Lock her up,'” Beck reminded Trump of his statements about Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 during an appearance on his BlazeTV show Tuesday. “And then when you became president, you said, ‘We don’t do that in America. That’s just not the right thing to do.'” “That’s what they’re doing,” Beck continued, asking the former president, “Do you regret not locking her up? And if you’re president again, will you lock people up?” Trump, who dismissed the various charges he faces in Georgia, New York, Florida and Washington, D.C., said there is “no choice.” “Well, I’ll give you an example… The answer is you have no choice, because they’re doing it to us,” Trump said, adding that he “never hit Biden as hard as I could have.” “I always had such great respect for the office of the president and the presidency … And then I heard he was trying to indict me, and it was him that was doing it,” he said.
Trump: Rupert Murdoch a ‘globalist’ trying to tear me down - Former President Trump accused Rupert Murdoch, the owner and chief executive at Fox Corp., of sabotaging his campaign with negative coverage in the various media properties he owns. “Fox News and the Wall Street Journal fight me because Murdoch is a globalist,” Trump said in a short video posted to his Truth Social website Wednesday afternoon. “And I am America First. It’s very simple, and it will always be that way, so get used to it.” Trump has repeatedly accused Fox, specifically, and Murdoch, more generally, of trying to boost the candidacy of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the former president’s top GOP rival in the party’s 2024 primary. In the video, Trump, who holds a double-digit lead over DeSantis and the rest of the GOP primary field, celebrated that the Florida governor was “a Murdoch pick” who has “fallen like a very badly injured bird out of the sky.” Trump also took issue with the Wall Street Journal, another Murdoch-owned publication that has been increasingly critical of him, saying the bastion of financial news and conservative opinion commentary had “totally lost its way.” Trump did not attend last week’s first GOP primary debate, a decision he says he made in part due to the “hostile” relationship he has with Fox and Murdoch. Several of Fox’s top opinion hosts remain loudly supportive of Trump, including top pundits Sean Hannity, Maria Bartiromo and Jesse Watters.
Trump pollster warns Haley ‘surging’ in Iowa: report -- A prominent pollster told Republican donors that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) “has surged” in polls in Iowa after Wednesday’s Republican presidential debate, Axios reportedTuesday.Tony Fabrizio, who was the lead pollster for former President Donald Trump’s last two campaigns for president, also said in a memo that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, polling a distant second behind Trump, had “flatlined.”“DeSantis has flatlined, Haley has surged, and [Vivek] Ramaswamy is seen as last week’s debate winner,” the memo read, according to Axios.Fabrizio added that Haley and Ramaswamy are “essentially tied” with DeSantis in New Hampshire, as well. The memo was reportedly sent to “fundraisers and allies of former President Trump.” Fabrizio is also involved in a pro-Trump super PAC.
Biden’s use of fake names in email could cost him – Turley - Last year, at an event at the White House, former president Barack Obama jokingly referred to the current president as “Vice President Biden.” At the time, it was described as the more popular politician “reminding Biden who’s boss.” Yet, this needling carried an added bite, given reports of Obama’s private doubts about Biden’s judgment.In 2020, Obama had famously warned fellow Democrats, “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f— things up.”Obama is now being asked to bail Biden out from another debacle of his own making, going back to his time in Obama’s administration. Various committees and private groups are seeking more than 5,000 emails from Biden in which he used an array of aliases during the Obama administration.Under the Presidential Records Act, Obama has 30 days to bar the release of the emails and to help shield his former vice president in a growing corruption scandal over the influence-peddling operation run by Biden’s son, Hunter.Recently, it was learned that Joe Biden went by a variety of code names and false names, including Robin Ware. Robert L. Peters, JRB Ware, Celtic and “The Big Guy.” House investigators believe that may only be a partial list. For many Americans, it is understandably unnerving to learn that their president has more aliases than Anthony Weiner. However, while the number seems unusual, the practice is not unprecedented.Top officials have used such aliases in the past for emails, including former Attorneys General Eric Holder and Loretta Lynch. During the Obama administration, the practice was defended by then-White House press secretary Jay Carney, who assured the public that any such emails would still be subject to Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests and congressional inquiries. He added, “We do not use and should not use private email accounts for work.” The problem is that there was “work” being discussed on some of these emails, including official foreign travel plans and the hiring of associates of Hunter for high-level positions. More importantly, some emails are relevant to the clients of Biden’s son. Biden has previously lied that he knew nothing of these dealings, but these emails could reveal even more about his knowledge and involvement.Congress is investigating more than $20 million that was transferred to members of the Biden family from foreign sources through a labyrinth of shell companies and accounts. Even the Washington Post has been forced to admit that the president has lied in the past about aspects of Hunter’s dealings. Devon Archer recently confirmed that Joe Biden’s long-standing denial of any knowledge of their business dealings is “categorically false.” Most reporters now admit that Hunter was clearly engaging in influence-peddling, Washington’s favorite form of corruption. Yet in the face of this growing evidence, Democrats insist that Hunter and his associates were merely selling “the illusion of influence,” not actual access or influence over Joe Biden. Obviously, these foreign clients believed that they were buying more than an illusion for the millions they spent. One corrupt Ukrainian figure said that Hunter Biden was dumber than his dog, but that he paid him anyway for access to his father.
Rudy Giuliani is liable for defaming Georgia election workers, judge rules - A federal judge ruled Wednesday that Rudy Giuliani is legally liable for defaming two Georgia election workers who became the subject of conspiracy theories related to the 2020 election that were amplified by Donald Trump in the final weeks of his presidency. In an unsparing, 57-page ruling, U.S. District Court Judge Beryl Howell said Giuliani had flagrantly violated her orders to preserve and produce relevant evidence to the election workers, Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, resulting in a “default” judgment against him. She also ordered him to pay Freeman and Moss “punitive” damages for failing to fulfill his obligations.The ruling means the case will now proceed to a trial purely to determine the amount of damages Giuliani will have to pay the two election workers.“Just as taking shortcuts to win an election carries risks — even potential criminal liability — bypassing the discovery process carries serious sanctions,” Howell wrote.Giuliani spent weeks accusing Freeman and Moss of manipulating ballots during Georgia’s vote-counting process after the 2020 election, despite repeated investigations that debunked and discredited the allegations.The harassment that Freeman and Moss endured as a result of these conspiracy theories is at the heart of some of the criminal charges now facing several of Trump’s co-defendants in the Georgia racketeering case brought by Fulton County prosecutors.Giuliani is charged in that case, in part, for making false statements to Georgia legislators related to his attacks on Freeman and Moss. He’s also facing charges for his role as Trump’s attorney in the aftermath of the 2020 election, leading a campaign to sow doubt about the election results and amplify baseless claims of fraud to bolster Trump’s courtroom efforts to overturn the results.Howell’s ruling is tied to a lawsuit that Freeman and Moss filed in 2021 against Giuliani in federal court in Washington for defamation, civil conspiracy and intentional infliction of emotional distress. Howell has now ordered the damages question to head to a jury.It’s unclear how much money the pair will seek in the trial. They can pursue both direct compensation for the damage to their reputations and other harms they faced, as well as punitive damages — which in some cases can far exceed direct damages. The total might be influenced by what Giuliani does next.
Judge rejects Navarro’s ‘executive privilege’ claim for defying Jan. 6 committee - Peter Navarro, a former senior White House adviser to former President Donald Trump, failed to prove that Trump asserted executive privilege to block him from testifying to the House Jan. 6 select committee, a federal judge ruled Wednesday.The ruling by U.S. District Court Judge Amit Mehta keeps on track Navarro’s Sept. 5 contempt-of-Congress trial, where he will face jurors on two charges that he defied the committee’s subpoena for testimony and documents related to Navarro’s role in Trump’s bid to subvert the 2020 election.Navarro has long claimed that Trump asserted privilege to block him from appearing before the Jan. 6 select committee in early 2022 when the panel subpoenaed him. But Navarro has never produced direct evidence to back that claim and, more importantly, Trump and his attorneys have repeatedly declined to say whether Navarro was accurately reflecting their conversations.Mehta cited Trump’s refusal to corroborate Navarro’s claims as the most compelling reason that he found Trump did not, in fact, seek to block Navarro’s testimony to the select committee.“There was no formal invocation of executive privilege by [Trump] after personal consideration nor authorization to Mr. Navarro to invoke privilege on his behalf,” Mehta said.Navarro’s trial, which is likely to be brief, will head to jury selection on Tuesday. Mehta’s ruling means the former Trump trade adviser will not be able to argue to the jury that he believed Trump asserted privilege and effectively blocked him from complying with aspects of the select committee’s subpoena.In addition, Mehta noted that even if he had shown Trump asserted privilege, the select committee had indicated it planned to ask him questions about topics that did not touch on his communications with Trump and therefore wouldn’t be covered by any privilege assertion.
Sentencing of ex-Proud Boys leader delayed due to ’emergency’ A highly anticipated sentencing hearing for former Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio that was scheduled for Wednesday morning was abruptly postponed, officials said shortly before it was set to begin. Justice Department spokesperson Patricia Hartman said the proceeding was canceled “due to an emergency.” Lisa Klem, a spokesperson for the court, later told The Hill the proceedings were rescheduled because U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly, who is presiding over the case, is sick. Tarrio’s sentencing has been rescheduled for Sept. 5 at 2 p.m., according to court filings. He was convicted of seditious conspiracy and several other serious felonies in May. The Justice Department is requesting 33 years in prison for the right-wing extremist group’s former national chairman. Tarrio and four other defendants had been scheduled for sentencing this week for their role in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol.
Proud Boy claims ‘Trump won’ after sobbing for mercy and receiving 10-year sentence: reports -- Proud Boy Dominic Pezzola sobbed in a Washington, D.C., courtroom Friday as he asked a federal judge for leniency in his Jan. 6 sentence and vowed to stay out of politics in the future.However, after receiving a 10-year prison sentence, Pezzola reportedly raised his fist and shouted, “Trump won,” as he left the courtroom, according to WUSA.The 46-year-old, who smashed a Capitol window with a stolen police riot shield, stood trial alongside four other members of the Proud Boys earlier this year in one of the most high-profile cases related to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. The group faced seditious conspiracy charges for leading efforts to disrupt Congress’s certification of the 2020 election, following former President Trump’s loss to then-President-elect Joe Biden.Pezzola, a recent Proud Boy recruit, was the only one of the five to be acquitted of seditious conspiracy. However, he was convicted of assaulting, resisting or impeding a police officer, robbery of government property and destruction of government property.
Jan. 6 subpoena highlights tension between data privacy and compliance — House Republicans' subpoena of Citibank over concerns about how some large banks allegedly shared data with law enforcement may be the latest example of politics leaking into the banking sector, but banks shouldn't easily dismiss the incident as partisan bickering. Underlying the conflict is a longstanding tension between data privacy and banks' obligations to cooperate with law enforcement, especially when it comes to anti-money-laundering and counterterrorism financing laws, experts say. It's a growing concern for banks, as they grapple with how to walk the tightrope between cooperating with government agencies and protecting consumers' privacy — and how to do that in an increasingly politicized country. "Data is the lifeblood of the system, and it's where you're going to get the most details about someone," said Brian Knight, senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. "So if I wanted to paint a picture about somebody, I would go for the financial data because that's going to tell you so much about a person and their views and their habits. Part of this is two sides yelling at each other, but underlying that is how that information is treated so it's not abused by whichever side happens to have access to it." Last week, the House Judiciary Committee subpoenaed Citibank for documents related to House Republicans' belief that major banks illegally shared private financial data with the Federal Bureau of Investigation related to the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.House Republicans said they are concerned that at least one institution — Bank of America — appears to have shared some data about individuals who made certain purchases and transactions. The transactions in question include Airbnb, hotel or airline travel reservations in the Washington, D.C., area in the days leading up to Jan. 6. Of particular concern to Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, chairman of the Judiciary Committee and the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government, is the release of data on individuals who purchased a firearm with a Bank of America credit card that supposedly went to the top of the list provided to the FBI, according to a cover letter attached to the subpoena. The GOP lawmakers say this sharing was done without the proper process, although they don't specify what that process would have been. "Federal law enforcement's use of back-channel discussions with financial institutions as a method to investigate and obtain private financial data of Americans is alarming," Jordan said. "The documents received to date only bolsters our need for all materials responsive to our request." The letter to Citibank also included a screenshot of an email sent to Citibank and other banks from the FBI, inviting them to participate in a meeting on "identifying the best approach to information sharing."
Gary Gensler’s SEC Is Drawing a Dark Curtain Around Child Sex Trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, His Money Man Leslie Wexner and Their Ties to JPMorgan -- By Pam Martens and Russ Martens -- The case involves the more than 15 years that the taxpayer-backstopped Wall Street mega bank, JPMorgan Chase, was making 9,000 money transactions totaling $2.4 billion and providing hundreds of thousands of dollars in hard cash annually to child sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein – knowing full well for much of that time that Epstein was a Level 3 Registered Sex Offender and was credibly alleged by the Palm Beach County Police Department (supported with videotaped victim testimony) to have sexually assaulted dozens of underage schoolgirls, paying them $200 to $1,000 in hard cash after each encounter to stay quiet.Making JPMorgan Chase’s position even more indefensible, internal documents obtained during discovery in federal lawsuits show that the bank held accounts not just for Epstein, but for his accomplices, procurers of underage girls, and victims. The bank casually moved money from Epstein into these accounts on a regular basis.According to internal documents and depositions in the federal lawsuit brought by the U.S. Virgin Islands against JPMorgan Chase for “actively participating in Epstein’s sex trafficking venture,” the bank conducted a secret internal investigation into bank employees’ relationship with Epstein. It dubbed the internal investigation “Project JEEP.” (The JE was for Jeffrey and the EP was for Epstein.) That internal investigation turned up hundreds of highly incriminating emails showing the nauseatingly sycophantic relationship that bank executives maintained with Epstein. (See a partial listing of 260 of those emails here.)As the JPMorgan Chase executives were falling over themselves to curry favor with Epstein and get client referrals, the compliance, anti-money laundering and human trafficking personnel inside the bank were referring to Epstein in their own internal emails as a “known child sleaze,” “that scum Epstein” while another acknowledged that he was aware that Epstein had stocked his mansion with “nymphettes.”According to court documents, JPMorgan Chase conducted Project JEEP in 2019, the same year that Epstein was arrested and criminally charged by the Department of Justice for child sex trafficking and his ties to Wall Street figures began to make headlines in newspapers that JPMorgan cares about, i.e., the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. (Epstein died in jail on August 10, 2019, a little more than a month after his arrest. The Medical Examiner ruled it a suicide.) The bank thus became fully aware in 2019 that it had serious legal liability over its relationship with Epstein; that one of its executives had received sexually suggestive photos from Epstein; and that the same executive had visited Epstein in jail while he was doing time for sex with a minor in Palm Beach County.The bank also likely learned of its potential liability for funneling more than $5 million in hard cash to Epstein – much of which was used to perpetuate his international sex trafficking ring according to the U.S. Virgin Islands, while failing to file the legally mandated Suspicious Activity Reports.According to the SEC, form 8K must be filed with the SEC by a publicly-traded company to announce major events that shareholders should know about. Companies, typically, have just four days to make the 8K filing after becoming aware of the event.We could find no record of JPMorgan Chase ever filing an 8K report with the SEC in 2019, or in any year since, that shares its Project JEEP internal report with shareholders and the public.The U.S. Virgin Islands’ lawsuit is providing some transparency on what transpired with Epstein inside the five-count felon JPMorgan Chase. But, aside from news reports and a breathtaking, nonfiction book of criminal intrigue, One Nation Under Blackmail, by Whitney Webb, connecting members of the JPMorgan Chase Board of Directors and its predecessor bank (Banc One), to Epstein and one of his largest clients, Leslie Wexner, and to crime families and Israeli intelligence operations, there has been a tight lid on the deeper facts involving the Wexner connection. Leslie Wexner is the former longtime Chairman and CEO of The Limited (a/k/a L Brands) retailing chain which, at various times, included Abercrombie & Fitch, Victoria’s Secret, Lane Bryant, Bath & Body Works and others.Epstein functioned as a financial advisor to Wexner and held a power of attorney for Wexner’s financial interests from approximately 1986 to at least 2008. Epstein’s Boeing 727, which was referred to as the “Lolita Express,” had been a corporate asset of The Limited. Epstein’s Upper East Side mansion in Manhattan came from Wexner. According to Epstein’s victims who have come forward, both the 727 and the Manhattan mansion were used to facilitate sexual assaults on underage girls. Prosecutors found a safe full of photos of naked girls, hundreds of which appeared to be underage, when the Manhattan mansion was raided by the FBI in 2019.According to court filings, Epstein also posed for years as a recruiter for Victoria’s Secret models, telling models that he could get them work at the company. Multiple women have said that when they showed up for the modeling interview with Epstein, he sexually assaulted them.
The SEC and DOJ Are Doing Damage Control for 5-Count Felon JPMorgan Chase --By Pam and Russ Martens - In much of the United States, if a person is convicted of a felony after conviction on two prior felonies, they receive a severe prison sentence. It’s known as the Three Strikes Law. But if you are the largest bank in the United States, charged by the U.S. Department of Justice with five felony counts since 2014, along with other major crimes for which you are given a non-prosecution agreement, not only do you not get harsher treatment for each new criminal act, but you actually get two federal law enforcement agencies doing damage control for you.We’re talking about JPMorgan Chase and its cozy relationship with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and certain officials within the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ).Take, for example, what happened on June 22 of this year. The SEC issued a Cease-and-Desist order against the securities unit of JPMorgan Chase for permanently deleting 47 million emails, many of which were under subpoena or document requests from its regulators, including the SEC. (One could be forgiven for thinking that sounds a lot like obstruction of justice by a serial lawbreaker. JPMorgan Chase said Deletion-Gate was all one big accident.)Despite the unprecedented criminal history of this bank – which garnered it a comparison to the Gambino crime family in a book by two trial lawyers – the SEC imposed a minor fine of $4 million for disappearing 47 million emails. That’s 8.5 cents for each permanently destroyed email that might have brought more criminal charges against the bank.Making the SEC look like a complete patsy for JPMorgan Chase and its Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, the SEC did not issue its customary press release for this settlement agreement. We checked the listing of press releases issued in June and there was nothing about this 47 million email disappearance. We contacted the SEC and inquired if, indeed, they had failed to issue a press release. The SEC confirmed that no press release had been issued. We sent a new email asking why the SEC has skipped the customary press release. We heard nothing further.Federal regulators are not the only folks that needed to get their hands on those 47 million emails at a criminally-inclined JPMorgan Chase. The Attorney General of the U.S. Virgin Islands has been taking discovery in federal court for months, with demands for emails and other documents, in its lawsuit charging the bank with “actively participating” in the sex trafficking of minors with Jeffrey Epstein. The U.S. Virgin Islands has produced evidence that the bank facilitated 9,000 financial transactions totaling more than $2.4 billion for Epstein in his accounts at the bank, which allowed him to pay off his victims, procurers and other accomplices for more than a decade. According to the U.S. Virgin Islands, JPMorgan Chase also failed to file the legally-mandated Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) as Epstein pulled hundreds of thousands of dollars in hard cash from his accounts, year after year. (JPMorgan Chase’s first two felony counts in 2014 resulted from laundering money for Ponzi mastermind Bernie Madoff and failing to file Suspicious Activity Reports in the U.S. — despite telling U.K. regulators that Madoff might be running a Ponzi scheme.)Epstein was charged by the DOJ with sex trafficking of minors in July 2019, after it looked the other way for 12 years. It took a James Patterson book, Filthy Rich, and an in-depth series of articles by investigative reporter Julie Brown in the Miami Herald in 2018 for the DOJ to be shamed into bringing criminal charges against Epstein in 2019, despite having a file filled with the testimony of dozens of victims since 2007. The DOJ has yet to bring charges against Epstein’s very accommodating bank, JPMorgan Chase.The absence of the customary press release in June from the SEC is reminiscent of what the DOJ did in 2020 when JPMorgan Chase notched its fourth and fifth felony count in its belt.On September 29, 2020, with all eyes on a pivotal presidential debate that evening, the DOJ announced its fourth and fifth felony counts against JPMorgan Chase. Without explanation, the DOJ skipped the customary press conference, the giant poster board with a summary of the charges, and the stage lined with its prosecutors.What the DOJ charged the bank with that day was absolutely stunning and should have made bold, front page headlines in newspapers across America. By skipping the press conference and the clever timing on the eve of the presidential debate, the DOJ minimized attention from the public and the press.The DOJ charged JPMorgan Chase with engaging in “tens of thousands of instances of unlawful trading in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium…as well as thousands of instances of unlawful trading in U.S. Treasury futures contracts and in U.S. Treasury notes and bonds…”The U.S. Treasury market is essential to the United States being able to pay its bills; raise money efficiently; and maintain the trust of our allies in our sovereign debt instruments. Rigging the Treasury market is about as close to financial treason as a Wall Street firm can get; especially when JPMorgan Chase’s securities unit is one of the Fed’s primary dealers and is contractually bound to bid in Treasury auctions.But instead of prosecuting the bank, the DOJ handed JPMorgan a deferred-prosecution agreement (its third in six years) and put it on probation.
USVI says JPMorgan notified Treasury of more than $1 billion in Jeffrey Epstein 'human trafficking' transactions after he died -- JPMorgan Chase notified the Treasury Department of more than $1 billion in transactions related to "human trafficking" byJeffrey Epstein dating back 16 years after the notorious sex predator killed himself in 2019, a lawyer for the U.S. Virgin Islands told a federal judge at a hearing."Epstein's entire business with JPMorgan and JPMorgan's entire business with Epstein was human trafficking," Mimi Liu, an attorney for the Virgin Islands, told Judge Jed Rakoff in U.S. District Court in Manhattan on Thursday, according to a transcript reviewed by CNBC.Liu cited the bank's notification to the Treasury Department as she argued that Rakoff should issue a summary judgment against JPMorgan.The huge bank is being sued by the Virgin Islands government for allegedly facilitating sex trafficking by Epstein of young women when he was a JPMorgan customer from 1998 through 2013.The attorney, referring to a $9 million block of transfers to women and suspicious withdrawals from Epstein's accounts at JPMorgan, said it related to "facilitating" more than 20,000 sexual acts, given Epstein's habit of paying several hundred dollars for each sexual encounter."JPMorgan was a full-service bank for Jeffrey Epstein's sex trafficking," Liu said at the hearing."The only reason that JPMorgan after 16 years reported the $1 billion in suspicious transactions was because he was arrested and then he was dead," she said"This was a CYA [cover your a--] reporting after 16 years of all of the monies flowing in his JPMorgan accounts after he was dead.The Virgin Islands has accused the bank of continuing to do business with Epstein for years despite repeated red flags internally and his 2008 guilty plea to a Florida sex crime."By 2006, the bank thus had reams of financial information related to Jeffrey Epstein that corroborated his sex crimes involving children," Liu argued.Epstein, 66, killed himself in a New York jail in August 2019, a month after he was arrested on federal child sex trafficking charges.In addition to a residence in Manhattan, Epstein owned a private island in the Virgin Islands, where he was accused of sexually abusing women.A lawyer for JPMorgan, which denies wrongdoing in the case, pushed back against the Virgin Islands claims that it should be found liable for abetting Epstein's abuse of women.The Virgin Islands is seeking at least $190 million in damages in the case, which will go to trial on Oct. 23 if Rakoff does not grant summary judgment to either side.The bank's lawyer, Felicia Ellsworth, told Rakoff that the Virgin Islands had presented "not a scintilla" of evidence that JPMorgan violated laws about sex trafficking.Ellsworth also argued that the Virgin Islands lacked the legal standing to sue the bank.JPMorgan has said the American territory can only sue to vindicate the rights of residents, and that there is no proof that any of Epstein's victims were residents of the Virgin Islands.
FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Intends to Blame Fenwick & West Lawyers in His Defense --Sam Bankman-Fried intends to argue he was acting in "good faith" in loaning funds to FTX and Alameda executives, in setting Signal messages to auto-delete and in setting up a set of North American entities because he was following the advice of lawyers, including law firm Fenwick & West. The FTX founder's defense team published a letter Wednesday detailing his planned "advice of counsel" strategy, saying he would produce evidence that both in-house and Fenwick attorneys "were involved in reviewing and approving decisions related to these matters." "Evidence of the defendant’s reliance on counsel is relevant to the question of intent and is not limited to situations where the defense can establish that the defendant formally sought out the advice of counsel, received legal advice, and followed the advice given," the letter said. CoinDesk has reached out for comment to Fenwick & West but did not immediately receive a response. The letter also took issue with the Department of Justice's argument for more information about the defense, saying prosecutors had previously pushed back against the defense team's unsuccessful bid to get information from the law firm. Bankman-Fried appeared in court Tuesday to plead not guilty to the latest superseding indictment against him, which contained wire fraud and conspiracy charges. He's set to go on trial in early October.
Why Sam Bankman-Fried likely won't get Adderall while locked up in Brooklyn jail --Jailed FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried will likely have to survive without access to Adderall while behind bars at the infamous Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, according to federal prison guidelines.As The Post reported earlier this week, Bankman-Fried’s lawyers whined at a hearing that he hasn’t been given his prescribed Adderall to treat his ADHD in the 11 days since he was tossed in jail to await trial in October.However, the Federal Bureau of Prisons, which oversees the Metropolitan Detention Center, generally does not allow Adderall and other stimulants to be supplied to inmates. The policy was detailed in a “clinical guidance” document on ADHD treatment issued by the feds in December 2021.“Psychostimulants should not commonly be prescribed first-line for treating patients within the correctional setting due to risk of misuse and diversion,” the document says.The guidance adds that “non-stimulant pharmacologic options have established efficacy and are used as first-line treatment for adult ADHD in BOP facilities.”Bloomberg was the first to report on the document. Bankman-Fried’s legal team argued that their client was unable to adequately prepare for his trial without access to his prescribed ADHD medication.Defense attorney Mark Cohen complained that Bankman-Fried has not had access to vegan meals and was “literally now subsisting on bread and water and sometimes peanut butter” inside the facility.“[Trial is] coming up in six weeks in one of the most complex cases in this courthouse,” Cohen added. “He’s being denied medication to focus.”Bankman-Fried was not getting his Adderall doses despite an earlier order from federal Judge Lewis Kaplan that he receive “uninterrupted access to his daily prescribed medications” while housed at the Metropolitan Detention Center.The Federal Bureau of Prisons declined to comment specifically on Bankman-Fried’s case, citing “privacy, safety and security reasons.”However, the BOP said that its guidelines would not necessarily prevent Bankman-Fried from obtaining Adderall if it is prescribed by a doctor.“Generally, we can tell you all incarcerated individuals at the Metropolitan Detention Center (MDC) Brooklyn have access to appropriate healthcare and medicine, including Adderall when clinically indicated,” a spokesperson told The Post. “While stimulants are not the preferred first-line agent, they may be approved following an evaluation and brief procurement process.”
Sam Bankman-Fried attorneys say they are ‘unable to adequately prepare’ for trial --FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s legal team told the federal judge overseeing his case that they are “unable to adequately prepare” for his trial.In a letter addressed to U.S. District Judge Lewis A. Kaplan, the lawyers argued that the government did not provide their client with regular and reliable access to the discovery, didn’t provide adequate internet access and did not provide him with the “ability of counsel to consult with and discuss the defense” with their client.His attorneys claimed officials violated Bankman-Fried’s Sixth Amendment rights, arguing that the government is “pretending that his current circumstances are not interfering with his right to counsel.”“The path the Government has chosen to take inevitably leads to inadequate representation which cannot be remedied as long as Mr. Bankman-Fried is incarcerated without internet access,” according to the letter. “There are millions of pages of documents, many of which have only recently been produced. The defendant is being wrongly deprived of his right to counsel and this violation must be remedied.”His legal team is asking for the court to allow Bankman-Fried to be released in the custody of his parents “subject to severe constraints.”“Nothing short of that will suffice,” his lawyers added.Kaplan had revoked Bankman-Fried’s bail and sent him to jail earlier this month, claiming that there was probable cause to suggest he had attempted to “tamper with witnesses at least twice” since his December arrest. Before being sent to jail, he was previously under house arrest as he awaited trial over allegations that he defrauded his investors and unlawfully diverted millions of dollars’ worth of cryptocurrency from FTX customers. In a superseding indictment filed earlier this month, the prosecutors also alleged that Bankman-Fried embezzled customer deposits to, among other accusations, “help fund over $100 million in campaign contributions to Democrats and Republicans to seek to influence cryptocurrency regulation.”
All of Sam Bankman-Fried's Proposed Expert Witnesses Should Be Barred From Testifying: DOJ - All of FTX founder’s Sam Bankman-Fried’s proposed witnesses should be disqualified from testifying because their disclosure filings are insufficient, their experience may be misleading or their planned testimony may not be relevant, prosecutors said in a late Monday filing. Bankman-Fried’s team, for their part, wants to exclude a financial analysis expert proposed by the Department of Justice because his proposed testimony may not be allowed under the rules. The filings, part of the so-called Daubert motions due Monday, laid out the two teams’ views on why their opposition should not be able to call certain witnesses to the stand when Bankman-Fried goes on trial for fraud and conspiracy charges in a little over a month. The DOJ moved to discount all seven of the expert witnesses proposed by Bankman-Fried’s team, saying that some of the disclosures they filed did not detail their opinions, while others “are inappropriate subjects for expert testimony” or possibly confusing for a potential jury. The witnesses are Lawrence Akka, a British barrister; Thomas Bishop and Joseph Pimbley, who are with different consulting firms; Brian Kim, a data analytics and forensics expert; Bradley Smith, a law professor at Capital University Law School and Andrew Di Wu, an assistant professor at the University of Michigan. Akka's testimony should be barred as his proposed opinion would speak to the definition of a "trust" under law, the DOJ said, which is the judge's role. Furthermore, his definition seemed limited to a single example, it added. Neither Kim nor Bishop's disclosures share details about what they would actually testify about beyond general topics, which isn't allowed, the filing went on to add. Smith's testimony isn't needed because the DOJ is not bringing a campaign finance-specific charge, which the professor would have spoken about, the prosecutors' filing said. Smith should also be barred because, like Akka, his proposed testimony would try to explain the law to the jury. Pimbley’s proposed testimony as an expert who can speak to FTX’s code is “unnecessary,” the DOJ said. “At trial, the Government will call at least two witnesses – Gary Wang and Nishad Singh – who were involved in writing FTX’s code. They are lay witnesses who are competent to testify about the code, and relevant and admissible questions the defendant has about the code may be put to these witnesses during cross-examination,” the DOJ filing said. “There is no need for a separate ‘expert’ witness to testify on such matters, especially in light of the fact that such testimony would duplicate the testimony of fact witnesses.”
Treasury aims to snag tax cheats with crypto broker proposal --U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchanges such as Coinbase Global and Kraken would have to report detailed information on their clients' transactions to the IRS starting in 2026 under a new Treasury proposal. The proposed regulations from the Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service offer clarity on reporting rules enacted in 2021 to curb crypto-related tax evasion by offering more transparency into customer trades. At the time, it was estimated the measure would raise up to $28 billion in additional revenue over 10 years, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation. The IRS has pointed to unpaid digital-asset taxes as a contributor to the tax gap — the difference between taxes owed and collected, which totals more than $500 billion per year. The proposed regulations would help "crack down on tax cheats while helping law-abiding taxpayers know how much they owe on the sale or exchange of digital assets," Treasury said in a news release. Under the rules, platforms that facilitate the buying and selling of digital assets, also known as crypto brokers, would have to track and report key information, such as customers' capital gains and losses — similar to existing requirements for stock and bond brokers. The term "brokers" would include digital-asset trading platforms, payment processors and certain hosted wallets, according to the regulations unveiled Friday. The proposal would also extend reporting requirements to real estate brokers in cases where digital assets are used to purchase property. "The sheer magnitude of this data requirement would be hundreds of times more than the annual reported transactions of any major brokerage — and goes well beyond the scope of pursuing wealthy tax cheats," Coinbase Vice President of Tax Lawrence Zlatkin said in a statement. "The practicality of the IRS's requirement to report — let alone enforce — this incredible minutia of taxpayer data is questionable at best," he added. Crypto firms were supposed to begin recording that data at the start of this year, and file reports to the IRS and investors next year. But the government in December delayed those requirements until it releases final rules.
US court paves way for spot bitcoin ETF in Grayscale ruling -- Grayscale Investments moved closer to launching a spot-based bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the U.S., a potential watershed moment in the cryptocurrency industry's quest to tap billions of dollars from everyday investors.A three-judge appeals panel in Washington on Tuesday overturned a decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to block the ETF, which would be tied to the spot bitcoin price. The ruling marks a major legal win for the crypto industry and sent the price of bitcoin surging by as much as 7%. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust rallied as much as 21%.The SEC, which said that it was reviewing the decision, could still fight it.Grayscale has said converting to an ETF would help it unlock about $5.7 billion in value from the $16.2 billion trust by making it easier to create and redeem shares. More broadly, the crypto industry has long viewed the launch of an ETF based on the cryptocurrency itself, rather than futures, as significant milestone. In June 2022, the SEC rejected Grayscale's conversion proposal arguing that an ETF based on bitcoin lacked adequate oversight to detect fraud. Grayscale sued to overturn the decision, accusing the SEC of discriminating against its product, while approving similar bitcoin futures ETFs. "The denial of Grayscale's proposal was arbitrary and capricious because the Commission failed to explain its different treatment of similar products," wrote Judge Neomi Rao.In a statement, Grayscale called the decision "a monumental step forward for American investors."
In Farmington State Bank, some see poster child for charter stripping --A Federal Reserve enforcement action against a small community bank last week for its foray into digital assets has raised the question of whether the bank's actions were an aberration or a prime example of what some refer to as "charter stripping." The order details the extent to which the crypto-focused investors that purchased Farmington State Bank in 2020 flouted their commitments to regulators to preserve the institution's long-running business model, which centered on deposits, mortgages and farm loans.Within a year of receiving their final regulatory signoff, according to the order, the new owners were engaged in a wholesale repositioning of the bank as a service provider to "fast-growing innovative and disruptive sectors." This included a business agreement to design and issue stablecoins, despite an explicit ban on such activity in the acquisition approval."That level of disregard is unprecedented and really quite astonishing," said Michelle Alt, co-founder of the advisory firm Klaros Group and a former regulatory lawyer at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.The bank was purchased by GUVJEC Investment Corp. — now FBH Corp. — a Maryland-based company led by Jean Chalopin, a crypto investor and chair of Bahamas-based Deltec Bank, which caters to the digital-asset industry. Chalopin did not respond to multiple requests for comment this week.Given that Farmington, at just $22 million of assets, was among the smallest banks in the country at the time, Alt said it should have been clear that the investors were angling for a so-called charter strip, in which a purchaser targets a bank solely for its license to take deposits and engage in other bank-exclusive activities. Indeed, regulators might have been on alert to this possibility, she noted, pointing to the numerous conditions tacked onto the acquisition approval.Yet, because those caveats did not prevent the bank from abandoning its long-standing business model, Alt and others worry the episode will result in an overcorrection from regulators, one that makes the banking sector's high barrier to entry even higher. "I've never seen such blatant disregard of approval conditions, so it's my view that Farmington is an aberration," she said. "My concern is that this will put a further chill on regulator responses to innovative business plans instead of being treated like the aberration it was."
Switzerland weighs new anti-money-laundering rules amid U.S. criticism --Switzerland proposed new rules to toughen anti-money-laundering laws as U.S. officials ramp up their critique of what they say is weak sanctions enforcement.A plan announced Wednesday includes a federal register where companies and other legal entities would have to add the names of their beneficial owners, making it harder for criminals and others to hide assets from police and tax authorities. The register, however, won't be public.The proposals come amid growing criticism from the U.S. that Switzerland hasn't been doing enough to crack down on the movement of dirty money. In recent years, Switzerland has been forced to shift away from traditions that protected banking secrecy and made it one of the go-to destinations for the world's rich. Still, critics say that too little has been done and are frustrated at what they see as its patchy enforcement of sanctions after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It's also been unwilling to join a multilateral taskforce designed to improve cooperation on seizing sanctioned Russian assets.In its statement, the Swiss government said "increased transparency should allow the prosecution authorities to identify who is really behind a legal structure with greater speed and certainty."But a U.S. State Department official told Bloomberg this week that more needs to be done by Switzerland. The goal is to starve Russian President Vladimir Putin of the ability to move money around for oligarchs and other proxies, the official said.The main features of the proposed bill:
- A federal register would be introduced to which companies and other legal entities would have to add the names of their beneficial owners. The private registry would be managed by the federal police and be regularly audited by the federal finance department.
- Anti-money-laundering rules would apply to consulting activities, especially legal advice.
- Measures would be adopted to prevent sanctions under embargo legislation from being "breached or circumvented."
- The threshold for cash payments in precious metal trading would be cut from 100,000 Swiss francs ($114,00) to 15,000 francs.
The risk to the proposals is that they get watered down during what's likely to be lengthy political negotiations. Many Swiss lawmakers have been reluctant in the past to enact tougher restrictions on attorney-client privileges because they are lawyers themselves, said the U.S. official.
Deposits at the 25 Largest Banks Are Setting Lower Lows as Smaller Bank Deposits Set Higher Highs - By Pam and Russ Martens The speed at which the largest U.S. banks are shedding deposits is unlike anything seen in the last half century – at least. But then again, the speed at which those same banks gained deposits from the various stimulus programs during the COVID-19 pandemic was also unprecedented. According to Federal Reserve data, for the week ending April 13, 2022, deposits at the 25 largest domestically-chartered commercial banks in the U.S. stood at $11.68 trillion (a new record) before doing a bungee dive in the following week to $11.4 trillion – likely triggered by the horrific scenes on network television of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine along with the severe economic sanctions against Russia announced on April 6, 2022 by the U.S. and other nations. This likely triggered a rush by Russian oligarchs to get their billions of dollars out of U.S. banks. As the chart above indicates, deposits at the smaller banks also took a steep decline in the spring of 2022 but then stabilized and actually grew until the banking crisis in March of this year. Deposits at the biggest banks, however, continued their decline, consistently setting lower lows – a pattern that continues. A large part of this deposit story is the chart below. The Fed’s unrelenting increases in interest rates to tame inflation have given depositors multiple alternatives to accepting the minuscule interest rates offered by the largest banks. Smaller banks, federal credit unions, and U.S. Treasury securities are now competing for those deposits with interest rates over 5 percent on some instruments.On April 21 of this year, Moody’s took the unusual step of downgrading the entire U.S. banking system from “Very Strong –” to “Strong +.” It implicated the Fed’s rate hikes in its decision, writing as follows:“Moody’s has lowered the macro profile of the US banking system to ‘Strong +’ from ‘Very Strong –.’ The change in funding conditions reflects rising asset liability management challenges at US banks. Specifically, the banking system faces rising funding and profitability pressures related to the significant and rapid tightening in monetary policy, which has led to a reduction in US banking system deposits and higher funding costs. Higher interest rates have also reduced the value of US banks’ fixed rate securities and loans which increases their liquidity and capital risks.”The April 21 move by Moody’s followed its announcement on March 13 that it was changing the outlook on the U.S. banking system from stable to negative. It wrote at that time:“We have changed to negative from stable our outlook on the US banking system to reflect the rapid deterioration in the operating environment following deposit runs at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate Bank, and Signature Bank (SNY) and the failures of SVB and SNY.”Silvergate Bank was placed into voluntary liquidation – a story that has a lot of unanswered questions. See our report: Disgraced Silvergate Bank Hints It May Not Be Able to Cover All of Its Deposits; Fed Slaps It with a Cease and Desist Consent Order.
Fed ramps up demands for corrective actions by regional banks -- U.S. regulators are quietly demanding that regional lenders shore up their liquidity planning, part of a ramp-up in efforts to tighten supervision after three bank failures earlier this year.The Federal Reserve has issued a slew of private warnings to lenders with assets of $100 billion to $250 billion, including Citizens Financial Group, Fifth Third Bancorp and M&T Bank, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The wide-ranging notices have touched on everything from lenders' capital and liquidity to their technology and compliance, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential supervisory information.The onslaught of such warnings — known as matters requiring attention and matters requiring immediate attention, or MRAs and MRIAs — comes as examiners look for other signs of stress in a system already strained by the collapses of First Republic Bank, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank this year. It's part of a wider increase in scrutiny impacting banks of all sizes after Michael Barr, the Fed's vice chair for supervision, vowed to "improve the speed, force and agility" of oversight earlier this year.These nonpublic admonitions generally require a board-level reply that includes a timeline for corrective action. For lenders on the receiving end of these MRAs and MRIAs, rectifying such actions can be costly. If left unaddressed, they can escalate into harsher public orders that can take years to resolve."The bigger concern is the time frame we're talking about for resolution," said Gary Bronstein, who leads the financial services team at the law firm Kilpatrick Townsend & Stockton LLP. "We're going to start seeing the supervisory staff impose tight deadlines on resolution. If banks are not resolving these issues pretty quickly, then we'll see enforcement actions." With their latest efforts, regulators have focused on Category IV banks, which are in the same size range as the three banks that failed this year. Supervisors had previously taken a lighter touch to regulating that category after Congress passed legislation in 2018 that raised the bar for which firms would face more stringent oversight from $50 billion to $250 billion.The group also includes KeyCorp, Huntington Bancshares, Regions Financial and First Citizens BancShares Inc., according to the people familiar with the matter. Representatives for KeyCorp, Regions and First Citizens also declined to comment, while Huntington didn't respond to multiple requests for comment.All U.S. lenders park a portion of their money in Treasuries and other bonds, and those assets dropped in value last year amid the Fed's aggressive push to raise interest rates. While the country's largest banks are required to recognize those unrealized losses in their regulatory capital, Category IV banks are exempt from that rule. That's why regulators have grown increasingly concerned that a surge in these paper losses won't be adequately reflected in Category IV banks' capital ratios, which demonstrate the health of their balance sheet.
Banks face stricter long-term debt, living-will mandates under FDIC plan — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. approved two proposals that would make larger banks hold more long-term debt as a financial buffer in the event of a collapse and would toughen requirements for their living wills if they have to be unwound. In a board meeting on Tuesday, the agency also issued guidance on enhancing crisis-resolution planning for large foreign and domestic financial institutions that aren't global systemically important banks, as well as formal procedures for approving failed-bank acquisitions. Industry trade groups that represent larger banks criticized some or all of the moves as potentially harmful or excessive, but smaller banks said they would properly shift regulatory burden to riskier, more complex players. The long-term debt plan would require banks with assets of $100 billion or more to hold minimum eligible outstanding long-term debt equal to the greater of 6% of their risk-weighted assets, 2.5% of total leverage exposure or 3.5% of average total consolidated assets. FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg said that even if a bank fails, the long-term debt would cushion the blow to uninsured depositors, reduce the resolution costs sustained by the Deposit Insurance Fund and offer the agency additional resolution options other than merging a failed firm with another large institution. He also said the plan could reduce the odds of bank runs. The speed at which depositors fled Silicon Valley Bank in March left regulators holding remnants of a bank with diminishing value, as well as little time to find attractive acquisition offers. This led them — in consultation with the Treasury Department — to forgo least-cost resolution, or the statutory requirement that they resolve banks in the manner least costly to the DIF. The FDIC is statutorily required to recoup DIF losses by imposing special deposit-insurance assessments on banks.Gruenberg said while the long-term debt proposal would shrink banks' net interest margins, it could help prevent the kind of instability banks saw in March and minimize hikes in assessment fees."The incremental long-term debt required under the proposal would marginally increase funding costs, and may result in a decline of net interest margins of about three basis points," he said at the board meeting. "[Costs to the Deposit Insurance Fund] — a major portion of which would have been borne by long-term debt holders if this proposal had been in place — will instead be passed on to the banking industry through assessments" in similar crises in the future if the plan isn't finalized.
Banks offer muted criticism of long-term debt and resolution plan proposals — A slate of proposed rules related to resolution planning and long-term debt issuance has received a somewhat muted response from the industry, especially compared with the outcry that met last month's Basel III capital proposal. Peter Dugas, head of the Center of Regulatory Intelligence at Capco, said that after three midsize regional banks failed earlier this year, the industry has had to pick their shots and focus their grievances. Long-term debt and living wills are easier pills to swallow than the proposed capital hikes, he said, so the industry is concentrating its fire on that rule instead."I think they are trying to be specific in which fight they pick with which regulators and what they want to focus their time on," said Dugas. "I think they do recognize the fact that, you know, there are emerging risks that banks need to control for, there are certain challenges with certain banks and their business models."The rules, first issued Tuesday by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and later in the day by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Federal Reserve, include two proposed rules requiring regional banks to issue more long-term debt. The proposed rule would require banks with assets of $100 billion or more to hold minimum eligible outstanding long-term debt that would provide a buffer to absorb losses and reduce the risk of runs by depositors. Such debt would be equal to the greater of 6% of their risk-weighted assets, 2.5% of total leverage exposure or 3.5% of average total consolidated assets.The FDIC's chairman, Martin Gruenberg, said that the proposals were motivated by the lessons learned from the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in the spring of 2023."While the FDIC resolved all three institutions in a manner that mitigated systemic risk, that outcome was by no means certain," Gruenberg said. "In particular, the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank required the use of extraordinary authority by [regulators] to protect uninsured depositors at those institutions, setting aside the least cost requirement to the Deposit Insurance Fund."Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at TD Cowen, said he expected banks' pushback, but the proposals were not even remotely surprising for the industry. Open confrontation would be ill-advised at a time when banks are fielding such a wide slate of new rules — and regulators aren't likely to bow to pressure anyway.
Bowman, Waller voice concerns about Fed's long-term debt proposal — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. approved two proposals that would make larger banks hold more long-term debt as a financial buffer in the event of a collapse and would toughen requirements for their living wills if they have to be unwound.In a board meeting on Tuesday, the agency also issued guidance on enhancing crisis-resolution planning for large foreign and domestic financial institutions that aren't global systemically important banks, as well as formal procedures for approving failed-bank acquisitions.Industry trade groups that represent larger banks criticized some or all of the moves as potentially harmful or excessive, but smaller banks said they would properly shift regulatory burden to riskier, more complex players.The long-term debt plan would require banks with assets of $100 billion or more to hold minimum eligible outstanding long-term debt equal to the greater of 6% of their risk-weighted assets, 2.5% of total leverage exposure or 3.5% of average total consolidated assets.FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg said that even if a bank fails, the long-term debt would cushion the blow to uninsured depositors, reduce the resolution costs sustained by the Deposit Insurance Fund and offer the agency additional resolution options other than merging a failed firm with another large institution. He also said the plan could reduce the odds of bank runs. The speed at which depositors fled Silicon Valley Bank in March left regulators holding remnants of a bank with diminishing value, as well as little time to find attractive acquisition offers. This led them — in consultation with the Treasury Department — to forgo least-cost resolution, or the statutory requirement that they resolve banks in the manner least costly to the DIF. The FDIC is statutorily required to recoup DIF losses by imposing special deposit-insurance assessments on banks.Gruenberg said while the long-term debt proposal would shrink banks' net interest margins, it could help prevent the kind of instability banks saw in March and minimize hikes in assessment fees. "The incremental long-term debt required under the proposal would marginally increase funding costs, and may result in a decline of net interest margins of about three basis points," he said at the board meeting. "[Costs to the Deposit Insurance Fund] — a major portion of which would have been borne by long-term debt holders if this proposal had been in place — will instead be passed on to the banking industry through assessments" in similar crises in the future if the plan isn't finalized.
Administration urges Supreme Court not to hear state preemption cases — The Biden administration has said that the Supreme Court shouldn't hear two related cases that deal with the preemption of state laws on the payment of interest on mortgage escrow accounts. The solicitor general said in a brief filed Wednesday with the Supreme Court that the court should decline to hear the two cases, which would consider whether the National Bank Act preempts state laws related to interest on the escrow accounts. The brief challenged the decisions made by lower courts — one by the 9th Circuit in Flagstar Bank FSB v. Kivett, and another by a 2nd Circuit panel in Cantero v. Bank of America, N.A. — but said that the issue shouldn't be decided by the Supreme Court. The two decisions conflicted, which is why it might be considered at the highest level. The 9th Circuit ruled that California law was not preempted and the 2nd Circuit ruled that the National Bank Act does preempt a New York law. But that isn't enough of a reason for the Supreme Court to weigh in on the matter, according to the Biden administration brief. While the two decisions didn't match up, the discrepancy is "shallow," the solicitor general says in the brief."Neither the Second nor the Ninth Circuit applied the correct preemption standard to the interest-on-escrow laws at issue," according to the brief. "The Court therefore should allow additional lower courts to consider the question presented and engage with the arguments raised in this brief." And while generally, the issue of preemption under the National Bank Act is a big topic, the brief notes that only 13 states have enacted interest-on-escrow laws, which means that the specific question of interest on escrow payments might not be the ideal issue for the Supreme Court to tackle state preemption of the National Banking Act as a whole. That said, should the Supreme Court choose just one of these cases to take up, the solicitor general recommends the Flagstar case. Despite concerns that Flagstar only recently became a national bank instead of a federal savings bank, the brief says that Dodd-Frank made the preemption standards the same for the two types of institutions. Notably, the solicitor general also argues against an amicus brief filed by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in 2021 as part of the Bank of America case. In the OCC's brief, the agency backed the bank's position and asked the court to "conclude that a state law that requires a national bank to pay even a nominal rate of interest on a particular category of account impermissibly conflicts with a national bank's power by disincentivizing the bank from continuing to offer the product." At the time, the OCC called the issue "a matter of foundational consequence to the OCC and to the federal banking system." According to the solicitor general, the federal government takes a more narrow interpretation, and the OCC advocated for "a different and broader view" of the National Banking Act than the government is laying out in its most recent brief to the Supreme Court. The current solicitor general brief outlines an interpretation of the issues that "better reflects the text, structure, and history of the statute," the solicitor general said.
Vanguard joins BlackRock, cuts support for shareholder items on climate, social issues (Reuters) - Vanguard supported just 2% of shareholder resolutions on environmental and social issues at U.S. companies this year, down from 12% last year, the top mutual fund manager said on Monday, fueling a drop in investor backing overall. Vanguard said the declining support rate reflected a rising number of proposals - 359 this year, up from 290 a year ago, coupled with improvements in company disclosure that it said made many resolutions unnecessary. With $8.2 trillion under management, Pennsylvania-based Vanguard has become a leader in deciding whether companies should take steps like curbing greenhouse gas emissions or reviewing their workforce diversity. Support for shareholder resolutions calling for such steps has declined at U.S. companies this year, with top asset manager BlackRock saying it backed the mostly-advisory measures just 7% of the time, down from 22% last year. Vanguard's drop in support was even steeper. Like BlackRock, Vanguard noted new securities regulations that make it harder for companies to leave questions off their ballots. In a note on its website, Vanguard also said many resolutions sought changes that might not be needed. "In some cases, we identified that although a proposal raised a material risk at the company in question, the board had already demonstrated appropriate oversight of the risk and evidenced its oversight through robust disclosure or had practices in place that substantially fulfilled the proposal’s request," Vanguard said. Vanguard and BlackRock have been under fire from conservative U.S. politicians who say they have over-emphasized sustainability issues, and from liberal activists who say the firms do too little to address global problems. Like BlackRock, Vanguard did not address how the criticism may have shaped votes this year but said its approach to evaluating shareholder proposals "has been consistent over time."
Comerica CEO and CFO sued for statements on Treasury program - Comerica Chairman and CEO Curt Farmer and Chief Financial Officer James Herzog have been sued by shareholders who allege the executives made materially false and misleading statements about the Dallas company's oversight of a Treasury Department program. A lawsuit filed this week in U.S. District Court for the Central District of California alleges that Farmer, Herzog and the $90.8 billion-asset company itself broke federal securities laws by failing to disclose that Comerica violated its contract to oversee Direct Express, a Treasury program that provides federal benefits on prepaid cards to millions of unbanked Americans. The 33-page lawsuit alleges that Farmer and Herzog discussed fraud and reputational risk in general terms in Comerica's 2020 annual report "rather than as a pressing issue as it related to the Direct Express program." In 2020, Comerica officials privately acknowledged significant compliance failures in the company's operation of Direct Express, according to internal documents received by American Banker. Specifically, an executive said Comerica faced a "serious contract violation" for allowing fraud disputes and data on Direct Express cardholders to be handled out of a vendor's office in Lahore, Pakistan, the documents show. Comerica executives also acknowledged in 2020 that the company had violated Regulation E, which governs how a financial institution addresses errors reported by consumers including for theft or fraud."By the time the 2020 annual report was filed, company executives were raising internal concerns regarding potential company violations of Regulation E due to inadequate fraud prevention and responses relating to the Direct Express program," alleges the suit, which was filed Monday. The complaint said that Comerica and its top executives had attested that the company's management policies and practices "were designed to comply with current regulations.""This statement was materially false and misleading," the complaint alleges. "At the time [the 2020 annual] report was filed with the [Securities and Exchange Commission], the company knew that it was not in compliance with the federal contract because a company vendor was conducting certain operations from Lahore, Pakistan, rather than, as was required, in the United States."A Comerica spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment Friday. But in June, Farmer responded by sending American Banker a letter to the editor claiming excerpts of internal communications about the Direct Express program were "without context" and had "failed to provide a complete picture of how the program is managed and issues are addressed."Laurence Rosen, a lawyer who represents the lawsuit's plaintiff, a shareholder named David Ramos, did not respond to a request for comment.The lawsuit said that "as a result of defendants' wrongful acts and omissions, and the precipitous decline in the market value of the company's common shares, plaintiff and other class members have suffered significant losses and damages."
Average overdraft price hits 19-year low: Survey The average price of a consumer overdraft dropped by 11% this year, according to a new survey from Bankrate.com, as the banking industry continued moving away from the charges amid persistent regulatory pressure.Though most banks still charge overdrafts, the average fee fell to $26.61 from $29.80 last year, the annual survey found. The fees peaked at $33.58 in 2021. Larger banks started announcing overdraft reforms that year. Ally Bank eliminated overdraft fees, a move that Capital One and Citigroup would soon follow. Bank of America slashed its feeto $10, and a few regional banks followed suit in reducing the charges.The cumulative impact of those moves has made the average charge less punitive on consumers who overdraw their accounts, said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. The average price of an overdraft fee is now at a 19-year low."The wind is blowing in one direction, and that's for less burdensome fees in the event of an overdraft," McBride said.Continuing to charge $35, which used to be commonplace, now carries more reputational risk, McBride said.Biden administration regulators are continuing to pressure banks and cracking down onoverdraft policies they see as deceptive. Some banks have moved proactively since they realize "change will be forced upon them," McBride said.
Credit-repair firms agree to settle CFPB claims for $2.7 billion - Some of the country's largest credit-repair businesses agreed to settle Consumer Financial Protection Bureau allegations of illegal telemarketing practices for $2.7 billion. Included in the settlement were Lexington Law and CreditRepair.com, which are marketed "through a web of entities" including PGX Holdings Inc., the CFPB said in a statement Monday. PGX filed for bankruptcy after the court ruled in favor of the CFPB in March, finding that the credit-repair brands violated rules banning the collection of fees upfront. "Americans across the country looking to improve their credit scores have turned to companies like CreditRepair.com and Lexington Law," CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in the statement. "This scam is another sign that we must do more to fix the credit reporting and scoring system in our country." Because the companies are insolvent, the CFPB said it would determine whether its victims' relief fund could be used to make payments to affected consumers.The proposed settlement, if entered by the US District Court for the District of Utah, would also ban the brands from telemarketing their credit-repair offerings for 10 years.Lawyers listed as representing PGX in bankruptcy proceedings didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. The companies try to improve consumers' credit scores by disputing components of their credit reports for a fee. The CFPB has warned that the industry often doesn't live up to many of the promises it makes to its clients.
Regulators extend Hurricane Idalia support to affected institutions — Federal and state regulators said Friday they won't punish banks and credit unions for compliance shortfalls in the recovery period after Hurricane Idalia. Regulators also told financial institutions to monitor vulnerable investments, saying they would expedite applications for temporary facilities, and also encouraged lenders to meet impacted communities' needs including being more flexible with local borrowers. "Institutions should individually evaluate modifications of existing loans to determine whether they represent troubled debt restructurings or modifications to borrowers experiencing financial difficulty, as applicable," the release noted. "The agencies recognize that efforts to work with borrowers in communities under stress can be consistent with safe-and-sound practices as well as in the public interest." The agencies' disaster guidance comes as part of an interagency statement issued jointly by the The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Federal Reserve Board, the National Credit Union Administration, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and state financial regulators. Regulators also said they would expedite banks' requests to operate out of temporary facilities. While the process normally requires a written letter, the agencies said firms can begin the process with as little as a phone call to their primary regulator. The agencies also addressed the potential problems that impacted banks could have keeping in full compliance with publishing or regulatory reporting requirements related to the disaster. The statement advised banks to contact their primary regulator to report and receive guidance on any compliance shortfalls. The agencies say they likely will not penalize firms who take reasonable and prudent steps to comply and who keep their supervisors apprised of their situations. At a time when many communities are facing hardship, the agencies also reminded institutions they may receive CRA credit for helping to meet local needs. "Financial institutions may receive CRA consideration for community development loans, investments, or services that revitalize or stabilize federally designated disaster areas in their assessment areas or in the states or regions that include their assessment areas," the statement noted.
Bank accused of redlining says DOJ unfairly linked it to a race atrocity -- American Bank of Oklahoma has agreed to settle redlining charges brought by the Department of Justice and will make restitution by lending $1 million in Black and Hispanic neighborhoods in Tulsa. Executives of the Collinsville, Oklahoma, bank denied wrongdoing. In a press release late Monday, they said they entered into the settlement "to avoid the cost and distraction of protracted litigation." Chief Executive Joe Landon criticized the DOJ for disclosing racially charged emails the government claims American Bank employees forwarded to each other, and for mentioning the 1921 Tulsa Race Massacre in its press release announcing the settlement, as well as in the complaint against American Bank. Both consent order and complaint were filed Monday in U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Oklahoma in Tulsa. According to the DOJ's 24-page complaint, American Bank employees circulated emails that contained racial slurs, including use of the "N-word" in its entirety. Other emails exchanged among co-workers at the bank touched on sensitive topics like immigration, gang violence and the supposed decline of Detroit, Michigan. But in an interview Monday, Landon said "the majority" of the emails DOJ referenced came from outside the bank "and I have no control over that." "I get 100 to 200 emails a day. I don't read them all," Landon added. In a subsequent statement, American Bank claimed that "many of the quotes were taken from unsolicited communications forwarded or written by third parties, and others were taken out of context." "Any racially or ethnically insensitive sentiments included in these emails do not reflect our culture or values," American Bank added in the statement. The DOJ also noted some of the neighborhoods American Bank allegedly redlined were victimized in the 1921 Race Massacre, where white rioters destroyed the city's largely African American Greenwood District, killing as many as 300 people, according to some accounts. "Providing equal access to credit is essential in every community, but the painful history of Tulsa makes this agreement particularly poignant because the redlined areas include historically Black neighborhoods that have endured the legacy of racial violence and the continuing effects of segregation and discrimination," Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Kristen Clarke said Monday in a press release. The complaint is more explicit on this point, stating the "area that [American Bank] redlined includes the historically Black neighborhoods in Tulsa that were the site of the 1921 Tulsa Race Massacre."
Officials weigh pathway to let more firms tap Home Loan Banks — US officials are looking at ways to give a broader swath of financial firms, including nonbank mortgage lenders, the ability to borrow from Federal Home Loan Banks. The closed-door discussions, which are part of a regulatory review of the sprawling $1.4 trillion FHLB network, may be a first step to giving many more companies access to a coveted financial backstop now reserved mostly for banks. Any expansion would ultimately need congressional action, and would likely require firms to agree to more government oversight, according to people familiar with the matter. Since their creation to boost home lending during the Great Depression-era, the FHLBs have become a general liquidity provider for banks. At the same time, their importance in housing finance has declined as nonbank mortgage firms have grown in importance. Nonbank lenders Rocket Companies Inc. and UWM Holdings Corp. have climbed to the top of mortgage origination rankings in recent years. In 2022, nonbanks made up five of the top eight home lenders, according to data from Inside Mortgage Finance. The ongoing FHLB review by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the system's regulator, is being closely watched after this year's banking turmoil showed just how much banks had tapped the FHLBs for their liquidity needs. As part of that, the FHFA is also weighing limits on the ability of large lenders to the FHLBs as a financial backstop. A representative for the FHFA, which is expected to release its findings next month, declined to comment. Ryan Donovan, who leads the Council of Federal Home Loan Banks, said FHLBs were "eagerly anticipating" the results of the review, and that Congress should decide on any changes. The FHLBs, which have implied support from the federal government, lent billions of dollars to Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank before they collapsed. Supporters say the FHLB system serves as a key safety net during crises like the one earlier this year. However, critics question the purpose and usefulness of governmental-sponsored lenders with limited oversight.
Should the Federal Home Loan Banks become public benefit corporations? - A critic of the Federal Home Loan banks is advocating for the system to be reconstituted as public benefit corporations. Some of the best-known public benefit corporations are retailers with a special focus on environmental and social issues — including ice cream maker Ben & Jerry's, crowd-funding website Kickstarter and clothing brand Patagonia. The idea is aimed at requiring each of the 11 banks' boards of directors to balance the system's for-profit business of providing liquidity to its members with its public mission to fund affordable housing and community development programs. The $1.6 trillion-asset Home Loan Bank System is under scrutiny after the failure earlier this year of three banks — Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank. Those three banks collectively borrowed $53.1 billion from the system and failed after a run on deposits at Silicon Valley Bank sparked a broader liquidity crisis in the banking system in March. Hundreds of healthy banks also tapped the Home Loan Bank System, which injected billions into the financial system in the first half of 2023. "Had the board and management of the Federal Home Loan banks been required to balance the public interest in making these loans before extending $53 billion in advances to these troubled institutions, the liquidity crisis may have been averted," said Cornelius Hurley, an adjunct professor at Boston University School of Law. Hurley served 14 years as an independent director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Boston and has become one of the system's harshest critics. Last year, the Federal Housing Finance Agency launched a broad review of the system, the first in its 90-year history. Hurley has argued that the banks' public mission gets short shrift compared to the low-cost funding and the implied support of the federal government that allows the banks' 6,500 members to borrow at low rates. The system of 11 banks, stretching from Boston to San Francisco, has long been considered a 'lender of next-to-last-resort,' because its members can tap cheap funding in lieu of going to the Federal Reserve's discount window, which carries a stigma for investors. Next month, FHFA Director Sandra Thompson is expected to release a report with policy and congressional recommendations from its review. Thompson worked for more than 23 years at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., where she most recently served as director of the division of risk management supervision. The upcoming release of the review is causing angst among the Home Loan Banks and its members, particularly community banks. Several experts said the idea of amending the banks' certificates of organization to become public benefits corporations did not come up in the review, which included 19 regional roundtables and hundreds of public comments to the FHFA. "I don't recall this idea being seriously discussed during FHFA's comprehensive review, and it isn't clear what problem an idea like this would solve," said Ryan Donovan, president and CEO of the Council of Federal Home Loan Banks, a trade group for the system. "All stakeholders are eagerly anticipating the release of the report and at this point, it's better to wait for FHFA to show their work than to respond to rumors and hypotheticals that were not a significant part of the feedback the agency has received."
Hawaii Wildfires Spur Insurers to Reassess the State’s Risk - Weeks after wildfires killed at least 115 people on Maui, insurance companies are beginning to assess the damage to calculate their payouts. Early estimates for the total cost of the fires are $4 billion to $6 billion, according to a report from Moody’s Risk Management Solutions. But private insurers, already grappling with the costs of climate-related disasters in California and Florida, are also reassessing a home insurance market they had long considered both predictable and profitable, and whether they should charge residents of Hawaii higher rates. The occurrence of another unexpected catastrophic event “is going to have an impact globally for the underwriting community,” said Sean Kent, an insurance broker for FirstService Financial. Hawaii hadn’t been on the minds of insurers. With few natural disasters since Hurricane Iniki in 1992, and thus few payouts, Hawaii has offered the highest return on investment for insurers looking for calm waters. The models that insurance companies use to stay profitable — which make predictions based on past data — seemed to back that up. Although Hawaii’s market is unlikely to suffer the same fate as those in Florida and California, which many private insurers have left entirely, experts expect companies to seek higher rates in the state to reflect a riskier environment. Raising rates involves state approval, and public officials might be hesitant to agree to significantly higher rates. But if rates do rise, homeowners will probably bear the consequences. Insurers have set out to find out what went so wrong in Hawaii and how they can better prepare for the next disaster.
SEC probes Change Company over MBS sold to Wall Street - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is probing The Change Company, a California lender that pledges to promote homeownership in underserved communities, over its mortgage-backed securities, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter. As part the investigation, the regulator is also looking into some of the actions of its chief executive officer, Steven Sugarman, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the investigation that hasn't been made public. Buyers of instruments backed by The Change Company's loans have included some of Wall Street's largest money managers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. "Neither Change nor its leadership is aware of any SEC investigation," the firm said in a statement. "Loans included in Change's mortgage-backed securities have been vetted by third-party due diligence firms who have issued certifications attesting to the accuracy of the data and sufficiency of the scope of their reviews," the company added, in addition to providing an Aug. 24 attestation letter from an outside lawyer.
Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate vs Unemployment Rate --Here is a graph of the Fannie Mae mortgage serious delinquency rate and the unemployment rate since 1998. For the last two recessions, the delinquency rate and the unemployment rate moved in the same direction.However, there were significant differences between the two periods. During the housing bust, many homeowners had little or no equity - or even negative equity - when prices started falling. If they lost their jobs, they were unable to pay their mortgage. In the 2020 recession, most homeowners had significant equity - and the serious delinquency rate increased due to forbearance programs (most homeowners have exited forbearance now). Note: Fannie includes homeowners in forbearance in the delinquency numbers.Following the 2001 recession, the serious delinquency rate didn't increase significantly even though the unemployment rate increased.I don't think there is a clear relationship between the delinquency rate and the unemployment rate. It also depends on lending and homeowner's equity position.
Asking Rents Down 1.2% Year-over-year -- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Down 1.2% Year-over-year - A brief excerpt: Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September 2021: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand).The surge in household formation has been confirmed (mostly due to work-from-home), and this also led to the supposition that household formation would slow sharply in 2023 (mostly confirmed) and that asking rents might decrease in 2023 on a year-over-year basis (now flat year-over-year)....Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. Most of these measures are through July 2023, except CoreLogic is through June and Apartment List is through August 2023The CoreLogic measure is up 3.3% YoY in June, down from 3.4% in May, and down from a peak of 13.9% in April 2022.The Zillow measure is up 3.6% YoY in July, down from 4.1% YoY in June, and down from a peak of 16.2% YoY in March 2022.The ApartmentList measure is down 1.2% YoY as of August, down from -0.8% in June, and down from a peak of 18.1% YoY November 2021....With slow household formation, more supply coming on the market and a rising vacancy rate, rents will be under pressure all year. See: Forecast: Multifamily Starts will Decline Sharply
Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 6% YoY; New Listings Down 8% YoY -- Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Hannah Jones: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Aug 26, 2023 Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 5.9%. This past week marked the 10th consecutive decline in the number of homes actively for sale compared to the prior year, however the gap narrowed for the fourth week in a row.• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 8.8% from one year ago. For 60 weeks, there have been fewer newly listed homes compared to the same time one year ago. This gap has been shrinking, but reversed trend this week. This week’s data shows a 3.1 percentage point widening compared to last week.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was down 7.2% year-over-year - this was the tenth consecutive week with a YoY decrease following 58 consecutive weeks with a YoY increase in inventory. Inventory is still up from the record lows in the 2nd half of 2021 and early 2022, and it is unlikely we will see new record lows by this measure this year.
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Unchanged year-over-year in June -S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3-month average of April, May and June closing prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Positive Momentum Continues in June The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported 0.0% annual change in June, up from a loss of -0.4% in the previous month. The 10- City Composite showed a decrease of -0.5%, which is an improvement on the -1.1% decrease in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year loss of -1.2%, up from -1.7% in the previous month....Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase in June, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites also posted like increases of 0.9%.After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.7%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.9%.“U.S. home prices continued to increase in June 2023,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “Our National Composite rose by 0.9% in June, and it now stands only -0.02% below its all time peak from exactly one year ago. Our 10- and 20-City Composites likewise each gained 0.9% in June 2023, and stand -0.5% and -1.2%, respectively, below their June 2022 peaks.“As we’ve noted previously, the recovery in home prices is broadly based. Prices rose in all 20 cities in June, both before and after seasonal adjustment. Over the last 12 months, 10 cities show positive returns. Otherwise said, half the cities in our sample now sit at all-time high prices.“Regional differences continue to be striking. On a year-over-year basis, June’s three best-performing cities were Chicago (+4.2%), Cleveland (+4.1%), and New York (+3.4%) – the same three that had topped our May leader board. At the other end of the scale, the worst performers continue to be in the Pacific and Mountain time zones, with San Francisco (-9.7%) and Seattle (-8.8%) at the bottom. The Midwest (+2.8%) continues as the nation’s strongest region, followed this month by the Northeast (+1.6%). The West (-5.9%) remains the weakest region. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The Composite 10 index is up 0.9% in June (SA) and down 0.5% from the recent peak in June 2022. The Composite 20 index is up 0.9% (SA) in June and down 1.2% from the recent peak in June 2022. The National index is up 0.7% (SA) in June and is down slightly from the peak in June 2022.
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6% below recent peak - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6% below recent peak Excerpt: It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak. In the June Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 9% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 1% below the bubble peak.People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be $359,000 today adjusted for inflation (79.5% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
PCE Measure of Shelter Slows to 7.8% YoY in July - Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through July 2023.CPI Shelter was up 7.7% year-over-year in July, down from 7.8% in June, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 7.8% YoY in July, down from 8.0% in June, and down from the cycle peak of 8.4% in April 2023.Since asking rents are slightly negative year-over-year, these measures will slow sharply in coming months.
NAR: Pending Home Sales Up 0.9% in July; Down 14.0% Year-over-year - From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Elevated 0.9% in July, Marking Second Consecutive Monthly Increase Pending home sales increased 0.9% in July – rising for the second consecutive month – according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast and Midwest posted monthly losses, while sales in the South and West grew. All four U.S. regions saw year-over-year declines in transactions.The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – rose 0.9% to 77.6 in July. Year over year, pending transactions fell by 14.0%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001."The small gain in contract signings shows the potential for further increases in light of the fact that many people have lost out on multiple home buying offers," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Jobs are being added and, thereby, enlarging the pool of prospective home buyers. However, rising mortgage rates and limited inventory have temporarily hindered the possibility of buying for many."...The Northeast PHSI shrank 5.8% from last month to 63.2, a decrease of 20.2% from July 2022. The Midwest index fell 0.4% to 77.5 in July, down 16.0% from one year ago.The South PHSI lifted 2.0% to 95.3 in July, declining 10.9% from the prior year. The West index improved 6.2% in July to 61.3, dropping 12.8% from July 2022.This above expectations of a 0.8% decrease for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in August and September.
Las Vegas July 2023: Visitor Traffic Up 1.0% YoY; Convention Traffic Down 16.8% YoY -- From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: July 2023 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics With the highest July Occupancy since before the pandemic, Las Vegas visitation surpassed 3.5M visitors, approximately 1% ahead of last July. Overall hotel occupancy reached 85.2% for the month (+1.8 pts YoY) as Weekend occupancy reaching 92.6% (+1.5 pts YoY), and Midweek occupancy reached 82.2%, surpassing last July by 3.1 pts.With YoY growth stabilizing after the dramatic post‐pandemic surges last year, ADR reached $163, +1.7% YoY while RevPAR reached $139, +3.9% YoY.The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (light blue), 2021 (purple), 2022 (orange), and 2023 (red). Visitor traffic was up 1.0% compared to last July. Visitor traffic was down 4.3% compared to the same month in 2019. The second graph shows convention traffic.Convention traffic was down 16.8% compared to July 2022, and down 45.8% compared to July 2019. Note: There was almost no convention traffic from April 2020 through May 2021.
Personal Income increased 0.2% in July; Spending increased 0.8% - The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for July: Personal income increased $45.0 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $7.3 billion (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $144.6 billion (0.8 percent). The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in July and real PCE increased 0.6 percent; goods increased 0.9 percent and services increased 0.4 percent.The July PCE price index increased 3.3 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 3.0 percent YoY in June, and down from the recent peak of 7.0 percent in June 2022. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 4.2 percent YoY, up from 4.1 percent in June, and down from the recent peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022.The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through July 2023 (2012 dollars). The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.Personal income was slightly below expectations, and PCE was slightly above expectations.Inflation was at expectations.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down 0.2% in July - - With the release of July's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal -0.01% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to -0.23% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 6.66% nominal and 3.27% real. Disposable income is the amount of personal income that remains after income taxes have been deducted. Real disposable income is the post tax and benefit income after an adjustment has been made for price changes. This economic indicator is monitored to see how consumers save, spend, and borrow. Post-great recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015 with increases in 2012 and 2013. As a result of COVID pandemic stimulus measures, major spikes can be seen in April 2020, January 2021 (a December 2020 payment), and March 2021. The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013 and more recently, by COVID stimulus. The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2012 for inflation adjustment. But the 2012 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000. Nominal disposable income is up 133% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up 41%.
Our Drunken Sailors Are Drinking Directly from the Punch Bowl: Powell, Did You See That? -- But they’re earning more than they’re spending, and despite spending like drunken sailors, they’re saving a lot. --by Wolf Richter - Income fuels spending. So here we go: The income from all sources that consumers earned, but without transfer payments from the government (Social Security benefits, unemployment insurance, VA benefits, etc.), has been outrunning inflation since July 2022 – and did so again in July 2023.So “real” income (income adjusted for inflation) from wages and salaries, interest, dividends, rental property, and personal business, but without transfer payments, rose by 0.2% in July from June and by 1.4% year-over-year, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. Meaning, consumers out-earned inflation by a significant margin.The three-month moving average rose by 0.2% for the month and by 1.8% year-over-year. This income growth is a function of the rising number of people who are working and earning money, plus rising wages and salaries, rising interest incomes, rising rental incomes, etc. “Real” consumer spending (adjusted for inflation and for seasonal factors) jumped by 0.6% in July from June, which was a heroic feat.The three-month-moving average, which irons out the month-to-month variation, jumped by 0.4% for the month, and 2.5% year-over-year.The “real” spending growth of 2.5% year-over-year matched the average growth of the good years before the pandemic, but back then, interest rates were a lot lower. For example, interest rates on new vehicle loans have nearly doubled since then, as the Fed is desperately trying to take away the punch bowl to slow down this party, but consumers will have none of it. They’re still spending like drunken sailors.In the insert, you can see the decline late last year. But everything accelerated this year: “Real” spending on services jumped by 0.4% in July from June. The three-month moving average rose by 0.3%. Year-over-year, real spending on services jumped by 2.7%.This means they’re doing a lot of spending on services because inflation is raging in core services at the second-worst rate since 1985, and they’re outspending this raging inflation with ease.Services, which accounted for 62% of total consumer spending in July, include housing, utilities, insurance – talking about price spikes! – healthcare, travel bookings, concert tickets, streaming, subscriptions, repairs, cleaning services, haircuts, etc. “Real” spending on durable goods spiked by 1.4% in July from June. The three-month moving average jumped by 0.7% for the month. Year-over-year, the three-month average jumped by 4.3%.This growth was helped by the unwinding of inflation in durable goods – the PCE price index for durable goods has turned negative – and the consumer dollar goes further than it did in prior months and a year ago when it comes to buying motor vehicles, appliances, furniture, electronics, tools, etc.The pandemic-era spike of spending is far from being unwound, and instead consumers are spending in parallel the pre-pandemic trendline, but at a much higher rate. This is just astonishing:
“Core Services” Inflation Jumps to 2nd Worst since 1985, “Non-Housing Services” Are Red Hot. Fed’s Job Far from Done by Wolf Richter -- Services inflation is at it again. Year-over-year, the “core services” PCE price index accelerated to 5.4%, the second worst since 1985, according to data by the Bureau of Economic Analysis today, sharing that spot with January 2023. February had been the worst. The Fed’s job is far from done. Powell has been fretting about core services inflation for a year, and today he got what he worried about he’d get: an acceleration of core services inflation, especially in the red-hot “non-housing services”:Month-to-month, the “core” services PCE price index – services minus energy services – jumped by 0.46% in July from June (5.7% annualized), the second month in a row of acceleration, according to the BEA today (red line in the chart below). The three-month moving average (green line) accelerated to 0.36%.In core services is where inflation has gotten entrenched. Durable goods prices fell on falling prices of motor vehicles, electronics, home furnishings, etc. But inflation in services is where it’s at, and where it is very hard and frustrating to eradicate from.Note the massive increases in some of the non-housing services listed here (finance and insurance, transportation, recreation), which is precisely what Powell has been fretting about. The biggest month-to-month increases were in:
- Housing: +0.42% (5.2% annualized)
- Transportation services: +1.03% (13.1% annualized)
- Recreation services: +0.79% (9.9% annualized)
- Financial services and insurance: +1.64% (21.6% annualized), which people have already figured out from their new insurance premiums
But the durable goods PCE price index plunged by 0.65% in July from June, the steepest drop since 2017, after having declined by 0.31% in June, with all four major categories declining, as some of the ridiculous price spikes, particularly for motor vehicles, have been partially unwinding since mid-2022.
- Motor vehicles, which dominate the index: -0.65%
- Furnishings and durable household goods: -0.23%
- Recreational goods and vehicles: -1.11%.
- “Other” durable goods: -0.37%
Year-over-year, the PCE price index for durable goods fell by 0.8%. The index was negative in the years before the pandemic as a result of manufacturing efficiencies, offshoring, competition, and the infamous hedonic quality adjustments that remove the costs of improvements from the cost base, on the principle that consumer price inflation is the change in dollars to buy the same product over time, and cost increases due to improvements are not inflation. Here is my explanation of hedonic quality adjustments, including my chart of prices of the F-150 XLT, the Camry LE, against the new vehicle CPI, to demonstrate the perverse effects of these adjustments.
Freight Rates Surge as Mississippi River Water Levels Drop -- The cost to transport America’s harvest from the Midwest to the rest of the world is soaring as shrinking water levels on the Mississippi River drive up barge freight rates — and the forecast for below-than-average rainfall offers no relief. Barge spot rates as of Aug. 29 in St. Louis are up 49% from last week and 42% from last year at $23.34 a ton. That’s up 85% from the past 3-year average, according to data from the Department of Agriculture released Wednesday. The data comes just as the US prepares to begin its soybean and corn harvest, signaling another tough year for US farmers who already are struggling with drought and fierce competition from Brazil and Russia. Last year, extremely low water levels on the Mississippi River stranded more than 2,000 barges, crippling commerce on the vital waterway. Read More: Crop Worries Return as Midwest Braces for 115-Degree Heat Water levels on the Mississippi River, which carries more than 45% of US agricultural exports, have been dropping since June, restricting the amount of grain allowed on each barge. This led to a tightening of barge supply as more barges are required to transport the same amount of grain. Transportation companies are “proactively reducing drafts as they are aware of the problems that heavier barges caused last time around,” said Susan David, a grain analyst for No Bull in St. Louis. “This year it feels like the market is better prepared to handle it.”
ISM Manufacturing Index Contracts for Tenth Straight Month - The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 47.6 in August. The latest figure marks the tenth consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. The August reading was above the forecast of 47.0. Here is an excerpt from the latest report: “The U.S. manufacturing sector shrank again, but the uptick in the PMI® indicates a slower rate of contraction. The August composite index reading reflects companies managing outputs appropriately as order softness continues, but the month-over-month increase is a sign of improvement. Demand eased again, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting at a slightly faster rate, (2) New Export Orders Index continuing in contraction territory, with minimal signs of improvement and (3) Backlog of Orders Index improving for the third straight month but remaining at low levels. The Customers’ Inventories Index reading indicated appropriate buyer/supplier tension, which is neutral to slightly positive for future production. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was positive, with a combined 5.8-percentage point upward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. Panelists’ companies stabilized production compared to July and continued to manage head counts, primarily through attrition. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continued to accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries for the 11th straight month, and the Inventories Index remained in contraction territory as panelists’ companies continued to mitigate inventories exposure. The Prices Index remained in ‘decreasing’ territory but increased a respectable 5.8 percentage points, signifying near price stability. Sentiment improved regarding manufacturing lead times, although they remain at elevated levels. Here is the table of PMI components.
DOE offers $15.5 billion to retool existing auto plants for EVs - The Biden administration on Thursday said it is offering $15.5 billion to help U.S. automakers retool existing plants that make gas-powered vehicles and turn them into factories that deliver electric cars and trucks. The U.S. Department of Energy funding includes $2 billion in Inflation Reduction Act grants to convert domestic manufacturing facilities and expand production of hybrid, battery-powered and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. The DOE is also planning to provide up to $10 billion to support conversion projects through the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program. Separately, $3.5 billion could be made available to expand domestic battery manufacturing via the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.The announcement arrives at a particularly tense period for the U.S. auto industry — fueled in part by workers’ growing concerns that electrifying America’s transportation sector could mean eliminating certain jobs and shifting employment away from traditional manufacturing centers. “While we transition to EVs, we want to ensure that workers can transition in place, that there is no worker, no community left behind,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told reporters on a Thursday call.The DOE unveiled the funds nearly a week after Detroit-based United Auto Workers, the nation’s largest auto union, voted overwhelmingly in favor of authorizing a strike against one or all of the Big Three automakers: General Motors, Ford Motor Co. and Stellantis, the parent company of Jeep and Chrysler. Union members are calling for wage hikes, reinstating cost-of-living adjustments and shifting back to pension plans; they could strike if an agreement isn’t reached by September 14.All three auto giants have cited the transition to EVs in their earlier decisions to cut thousands of jobs, offer buyouts and idle auto plants across the industrial Midwest.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 228,000 - The DOL reported:In the week ending August 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 230,000 to 232,000. The 4-week moving average was 237,500, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 236,750 to 237,250.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 8.8 million in July - From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings edged down to 8.8 million on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.8 million and 5.5 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) decreased, while layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for July; the employment report this Friday will be for August. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings decreased in July to 8.83 million from 9.17 million in June. The number of job openings (black) were down 22% year-over-year. Quits were down 12% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
Job Openings Drop to Lowest Level in Over Two Years - -- The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report showed that job openings dropped to their lowest level in over two years. Vacancies fell to 8.827 million in July, lower than the expected 9.465 million vacancies. Additionally, the number of quits, total separations and hires fell to 2.3%, 3.5% and 3.7%, respectively. From the press release:The number of job openings edged down to 8.8 million on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.8 million and 5.5 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) decreased, while layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.The JOLTS report is a monthly survey of job openings, hiring, and job separations (quits, layoffs, discharges) released by the BLS. Unlike the unemployment rate that measures the supply side of the labor market, JOLTS data helps gauge labor demand.The chart below shows the monthly data points of the four components of the JOLTS series. They are quite volatile, hence the inclusion of six-month moving averages to help identify the trends. The moving average for openings was above the hires levels for over five years starting in 2015, as seen in the chart below. The openings MA briefly dipped below the hires for two months (May and June 2020), only to climb above once more in July 2020. Over the last year, job openings, hires, and quits have all been trending down with job openings moving downwards the fastest. During that same time, layoffs and discharges have been slowly trending down.
Massive Churn in the Labor Market Slows: Layoffs and Discharges, Voluntary Quits, Job Openings, and Hires - By Wolf Richter (with graphs). More and more data point in the same direction: After all the breathless headlines about global layoff announcements, and after seeing some actual layoffs, employees have gotten a little more worried about their jobs, and they’re quitting their jobs less than a year ago, and because fewer workers are quitting, there are fewer job openings that they leave behind after they quit, and therefore fewer hires to fill those newly vacated jobs. At the same time, actual layoffs and discharges dropped back to the historic lows of 2022. In other words, all this scary talk of layoffs has reduced the churn in the labor force, and for employers, that’s a good thing. Layoffs and discharges remained in the historically low range of 1.55 million in July for the fourth month in a row, down from the 1.7-1.8 million range in January and March. The chart shows the three-month moving average (1.55 million for July), which irons out some of the artificial drama of the monthly ups and downs. During the Good Times in 2014-2019, layoffs and discharges averaged 1.8 million per month. That was part of the normal way of business. During the Great Recession, monthly layoffs and discharges blew past 2.5 million. In March and April 2020, they averaged over 10 million. This data is based on surveys of about 21,000 work sites, released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This is not based on the layoff hype in the media. Workers quit quitting: Voluntary quits fell to 3.81 million (three-month moving average) in July, the lowest since May 2021, but still above the Good Times average in 2019 of 3.5 million. The reduction in quits shows that workers are less confident and less likely to walk out if they don’t like something, and more inclined to stick it out and keep their nose to the grindstone, a big relief for employers, that then don’t constantly need to hire people to fill the newly open jobs. The layoff-hype in the media, and the actual layoffs, clearly had the effect to scare more workers into having second thoughts before quitting. Job openings, driven by fewer quits, fell to 9.2 million in July (three-month moving average), the lowest since May 2021. This is still extraordinarily high, indicating that a number of industries are still struggling to staff up to meet demand, but it’s down from the crazy levels of peak-churn and re-staffing in early 2022. Hires, driven by fewer quits and therefore fewer newly open positions, dipped to 5.98 million in July (three-month moving average), the lowest since March 2021. July was just a tad above the pre-pandemic record: These are signs – declining and historically low layoffs and discharges, declining but still high voluntary quits, declining but still very high job openings, and declining but still high hires – that the massive churn in the labor market of 2021 and 2022, when it was difficult for employers to hang on to their workers, is abating, in part as a result of the psychological effects of the heavily promoted layoff announcements in the media, and of the layoffs themselves. It shows that workers have given up a portion of their newly found sense of power in the labor market, and they’re more likely to hunker down, put their nose to the grind stone, and get the job done, rather than quitting for the greener grass on the other side of the fence. All it has done is reduce the churn.
ADP National Employment Report: 177K Private Jobs Added in August -The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. . However, each month a few days before we receive the highly anticipated jobs report, ADP releases their data on new nonfarm private jobs.The ADP employment report showed that 177K nonfarm private jobs were added in August, a slow down from the 312K jobs added last month. The latest figure is lower than the expected 195K new private jobs and is the smallest monthly increase since March.The forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is that 150,000 private nonfarm jobs were added in August. However, the forecast for the full nonfarm jobs (the PAYEMS number) is for 170,000 jobs to have been added. Here is a visualization of the two series over the past twelve months.Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report press release:“This month's numbers are consistent with the pace of job creation before the pandemic,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “After two years of exceptional gains tied to the recovery, we're moving toward more sustainable growth in pay and employment as the economic effects of the pandemic recede.”Here is a snapshot of the monthly change in the ADP headline number since the company's earliest published data with the new methodology in 2010. This is quite a volatile series, so we've plotted the monthly data points as dots along with a six-month moving average, which gives us a clearer sense of the trend. The latest six-month moving average is 274,000, down from last month's 288,000.
August Employment Report: 187 thousand Jobs, 3.8% Unemployment Rate --From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 187,000 in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, social assistance, and construction. Employment in transportation and warehousing declined....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 80,000, from +185,000 to +105,000, and the change for July was revised down by 30,000, from +187,000 to +157,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 110,000 lower than previously reported.The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.Total payrolls increased by 187 thousand in August. Private payrolls increased by 179 thousand, and public payrolls increased 8 thousand.Payrolls for June and July were revised down 110 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.In August, the year-over-year change was 3.09 million jobs. Employment was up significantly year-over-year but has slowed to more normal levels of job growth recently.The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.The Labor Force Participation Rate was increased to 62.8% in August, from 62.6% in July. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 60.4% from 60.4% (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.The unemployment rate decreased in August to 3.8% from 3.5% in July.This was at consensus expectations; however, June and July payrolls were revised down by 110,000 combined.
Labor Force Spikes, Wage Pressures Stuck at High Levels, Job Market Sorts Out the Distortions from the Pandemic by Wolf Richter -- The labor force spiked by 736,000 people in August, and has been spiking all year. These are people who are either working or actively looking for work. During the pandemic, the constrained labor force was a huge problem and caused some of the labor shortages and the sharp increases in wages. So far this year, the labor force has surged by 2.87 million people, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. The surge started in December when the supply of labor exceeded pre-pandemic levels for the first time. For employers this growing supply of labor is good: The prime-age labor participation rate ticked up to 83.5% in August, same as in June, and both are the highest since 2002 when the labor market came out of the Dotcom-Bubble period. These are people aged 24 through 54 who are either working or actively looking for work. People in their prime working age are now participating in the labor market at a rate not seen in 20 years. The prime-age data largely removes the issues of the extraordinary wave of retirements over the past few years. The chart shows the three-month moving average, which irons out some of the month-to-month ups and downs: With the labor force surging, did they all get jobs? No. But many did. Unemployment is still near historic lows, but rising. The number of unemployed people who are actively looking for a job rose by 514,000 in August, after having dropped in the prior two months. This data jumps up and down from month to month, so we look at the three-month moving average, which rose by 86,000 in August. And it shows the trend: a slight increase from the historic lows early this year. The number of unemployed is a function of the surging labor force – meaning, not all the people entering the labor force now on a large scale are getting jobs: So the narrowest measure of the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, after having dipped to 3.5% in July. These are historically low rates. The rate has hovered in the range between 3.4% and 3.8% since February 2022. The employment-to-population ratio was unchanged at 60.4%. It has been in the 60.3% to 60.4% range since March, the highest since before the pandemic. The ratio tracks the working-age population of 16 years and older. It’s not capped at retirement age, so the growing number of retirees are still part of the working-age population, and so the ratio is now lower than it had been pre-pandemic following the large waves of retirements over the past three years. An aging population does that. People found work at a solid but not red-hot pace. The total number of workers, including self-employed, rose by 222,000 in August, to 161.5 million, according to the survey of households, which tracks all kinds of workers, including the self-employed that are not tracked by the survey of establishments, which we’ll get to in a moment. Over the past three months, the number of workers rose by 763,000 – which is a substantial increase. The data jumps up and down a lot from month to month, so we use the three-month moving average. You can see the sharp increases early this year, the slowdown in April and May, and now the re-acceleration: Employers added to their payrolls at a solid pace, 187,000 jobs in August, according to the survey of establishments. The total number of employed by establishments, not including many of the self-employed, reached 156.4 million: Over the past three months, employers added 449,000 jobs, for an average of 150,000 per month, in the middle of 2019-range and at the lower end of the range in the prior years during the Good Times before the pandemic. What we have seen in other data is that the massive churn in the labor force has begun to subside, where people quit jobs on a large scale to take on a better job, triggering massive job openings that then needed to be filled by massive hiring. This historic churn is now cooling. This chart shows the three-month moving average, which irons out some of the ups and downs:
August jobs report: deceleration shows up in spades - My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, particularly manufacturing and residential construction jobs, but also total construction and goods production jobs as a whole; as well as watching for the increase in jobless claims to translate into a higher unemployment rate (a leading relationship that it has had for over 50 years).And, with help from some significant downward revisions, further deceleration did indeed turn up in spades during August.Here’s my in depth synopsis.
- 187,000 jobs added. This would be the lowest since January 2021, except for revisions to the prior two months, making June the lowest at 105,000 followed by July at 157,000.
- Private sector jobs increased 179,000. Government jobs increased by 8,000
- June was revised lower by -80,000 and July by -30,000, for a total of -110,000. The three month moving average decreased to 175,000, the lowest since the pandemic lockdowns except for January 2021.
- The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report rose by 222,000 jobs. The YoY% gain in this report is +1.8%.
- The U3 unemployment rate rose -0.3% to 3.8%, the highest since February 2022 . The civilian labor force, the denominator in the figure, rose sharply (by 736,000), and the numerator, the number of unemployed, also rose sharply (by -514,000).
- U6 underemployment rate rose 0.4% back to 7.1%, the highest since May 2022.
- Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now rose 133,000 to 5.370 million, vs. its post-pandemic low of 4.925 million set this past March.
- the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, was unchanged at 40.1, equal to its lows earlier this year and down -0.6 hours from its February 2022 peak of 40.7 hours.
- Manufacturing jobs rose by 16,000.
- Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs declined -100.
- Construction jobs increased by 22,000.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 2,400. It nevertheless continues to appear likely that January was the peak for this sector.
- Goods jobs as a whole rose 36,000. These should decline before any recession occurs. They remain up 1.6% YoY, which remains a very good pace compared with most of the last 40 years.
- Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining late last year, declined further, by -19,000, and are down 242,000 since their peak in March 2022.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less rose 217,000 to 2,221,000.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.06, or +0.2%, to $29.00, a YoY gain of +4.5%, and the lowest since June 2021.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers increased 0.3%, and is up 1.2% YoY, a slight uptick from last month’s 1.1%, which was the lowest since March 2021.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose 0.6%, and increased 5.8% YoY, 0.2% slightly lower than last month, and the lowest since March 2021. Nevertheless this is significantly above the inflation rate, meaning average working class families have more buying power.
- Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, rose 40,000, -290,000, or -1.7% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments rose 14,900, but remain -32,400, or -0.3% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Professional and business employment rose 19,000. These tend to be well-paying jobs, But this series has been decelerating, and is currently up 1.4% YoY, its lowest YoY gain since March 2021.
- The employment population ratio was unchanged at 60.4%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate rose 0.2% to 62.8%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.
SUMMARY: This was a weak report on both is Establishment and Household sections. I should emphasize that revisions to prior data significantly affected some of the numbers, but detailed discussion of those is a topic for another day.Perhaps most significantly, the weakness that has been forecast for the last 5 months in the initial jobless claims data finally showed up in the unemployment and underemployment rates, both at their highest levels since the early part of last year. I should add that the level is *not* recessionary, as to fulfill the Sahm Rule it would have to be at least 4.0% for several months. But the headline jobs number as well as the revisions were weak and weaker - although I hasten to add that a three month average gain of 175,000 jobs is perfectly decent on an absolute scale. On the other hand, there were some definite bright spots, including the continued solid gains in aggregate pay for nonsupervisory workers even after inflation is taken into account, as well as gains in manufacturing and construction jobs. Last month I wrote that it looked like it would take about 9 months at the current pace of deceleration before goods producing jobs rolled over. This month there were outsized gains, but that estimate still looks good. This is significant because employment broadly in goods production typically turns down before a recession begins. So, in sum: significant further weakness, but not at all recessionary, and on an absolute scale quite decent.
Comments on August Employment Report -The headline jobs number in the August employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. The participation rate increased, and the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.8%. The increase in the unemployment rate was due to the increase in the participation rate as 736 thousand people jointed the labor force in August.Leisure and hospitality gained 40 thousand jobs in August. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 290 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 96% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Construction employment increased 22 thousand and is now 385 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing employment increased 16 thousand jobs and is now 212 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: August Employment Report: 187 thousand Jobs, 3.8% Unemployment RateIn August, the year-over-year employment change was 3.09 million jobs.Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.The 25 to 54 participation rate increased in August to 83.5% from 83.4% in July, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio was unchanged at 80.9% from 80.9% the previous month.Both are above the pre-pandemic levels and suggest all of the prime age workers have returned to the labor force.The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.3% YoY in August. From the BLS report:"The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 million, changed little in August. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.22 million from 4.00 million in July. This is below pre-recession levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 7.1% from 6.7% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is close to the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.According to the BLS, there are 1.296 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.164 million the previous month.This has been increasing recently and is above the pre-pandemic levels.Summary:The headline monthly jobs number was at consensus expectations; however, June and July payrolls were revised down by 110,000 combined. The unemployment rate increased as more people joined the labor force.Job growth has slowed to a somewhat more normal pace, up at a 2.3 million annual rate over the last 6 months.
Auto workers leader slams companies for slow bargaining, files labor complaint with government (AP) — The United Auto Workers union says it has filed unfair labor practice complaints against Stellantis and General Motors for failing to make counteroffers to the union’s economic demands.Ford was the only company of the Detroit Three to make a counteroffer, but it rejected most of the union’s proposals, President Shawn Fain told workers Thursday in a Facebook Live meeting. Fain’s statements and strong responses from the companies showed both sides appear to be digging in with just two weeks before contracts with the union’s 146,000 members expire. Fain is once again threatening to strike when the pacts end at 11:59 p.m. Sept. 14.
Age-discrimination lawsuit against Elon Musk's X allowed to proceed -- A California federal judge has refused to dismiss a lawsuit accusing X, the social media service formerly called Twitter, of disproportionately laying off older workers when Elon Musk acquired the company last year.US District Judge Susan Illston on Tuesday said the plaintiff in the proposed class action, John Zeman, had provided enough evidence that the mass layoffs had a greater impact on older employees to continue pursuing the case.Zeman, for example, claims X laid off 60% of workers who were 50 or older and nearly three-quarters of those who were over 60, compared with 54% of employees younger than 50.Illston ruled that the federal law banning workplace age bias allows plaintiffs to bring so-called “disparate impact” claims in a class action, an issue that has divided courts.The judge dismissed a claim that X intentionally targeted older workers for layoffs, but gave Zeman a month to file an amended lawsuit fleshing out that claim.Zeman’s lawyer, Shannon Liss-Riordan, said, “This decision validates the arguments we are making that the discrimination claims can go forward.”
New York Times Bungles Page One School Ventilation Story through Lazy Reporting by Lambert Strether - The Sunday New York Times has me banging my head on my desk again: As you can see, in the printed version of the Times, “Covid Closed the Nation’s Schools. Cleaner Air Can Keep Them Open” is laid out in the top right corner of the front pages; that makes it the “lead story” for that day (a Sunday, as it happens, the day that tens of thousands of Acela Corridor readers are settling into their summer deckchairs with a couple of pounds of newsprint for a solid afternoon of PMC hive mind thought before moving on to the Crossword puzzle. And possibly the recipe).A shame, then, that the story is mediocre at best, at a time when we need excellence so very badly (the same slovenly operational incapability from the County of Los Angeles Public Health Department had me banging my head on my desk yesterday). Perhaps, after three years and counting of Covid, we should be grateful for any content that isn’t outright eugenicist. In the first part of this post, I’ll quote the portions of the story that I am, in fact, grateful for; material that, in a phrase that’s all over everything these days, “what to know.” In the second part, I will do a closer reading of the text, revealing material that’s sloppy, haphazard, poorly sourced, and superficial; in a word, lazy. Here are the paragraphs I am grateful for; truths that New York Times readers can accept as true: Ventilation means good air quality, and good air quality is good. [T]he problem is bigger than the coronavirus. Indoor air may be contaminated not just by pathogens, but also by a range of pollutants like carbon monoxide, radon and lead particles. Concentrations can be five times higher or more indoors than they are outdoors, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. And: [D]ecades of research have suggested that improving air quality also can raise academic performance, increase test scores, bolster attention and memory, and decrease absences due to illness or other factors. We would not accept drinking water that is full of pathogens and looks dirty,”” said Linsey Marr, an expert in airborne transmission of viruses at Virginia Tech. “”But we’ve been living with air that is full of pathogens and dirty.”” There’s big money out there for improving ventilation. [T]here have never been more resources available for the task: nearly $200 billion, from an array of pandemic-related measures, including the American Rescue Plan Act. Another $350 billion was allotted to state and local governments, some of which could be used to improve ventilation in schools. Mysterious, unnamed forces prevent big money from being spent on ventilation.Schoolchildren are heading back to classrooms by the tens of millions now, yet much of the funding for such improvements is sitting untouched in most states.Among the reasons: a lack of clear federal guidance on cleaning indoor air, no senior administration official designated to oversee such a campaign, few experts to help the schools spend the funds wisely, supply chain delays for new equipment, and insufficient staff to maintain improvements that are made.Some school officials simply may not know that the funds are available. “”I cannot believe the amount of money that is still unspent,”” Dr. [Joseph] Allen said. “”It’s really frustrating.”” How odd! One can only wonder why that might be. However, if one believes that the Biden Administration’s Covid policy can be described in the following points, then everything falls into place, and there’s no reason to think this administration would support a mitigation like ventilation at all:
- (1) Mass infection without mitigation
- (2) Intramuscular injection of vaccines
- (3) Hospitalization and death as only metrics that matter
There is also a fourth point:
(4) PMC who support this program are hegemonic, hence amplified; the exceptional others are at best ignored and at worst ostracized or attacked. (This applies to the media, academe, medical professionals, the political class, and agencies like CDC; NIH; HHS, etc.)
I can’t help but wonder whether the article’s thin sourcing on airborne transmission is due to some similar dynamic[1]. Now let us turn to the fun part: A close reading of five passages. I will go passage by passage, indenting quotes from the article, prepending “NYT,” and adding lettered notes yellow wader-style, thus: “[A]”.
Elon Musk blames elite LA school for brainwashing trans daughter - The CEO of X, formerly known as Twitter, washed his hands of any responsibility for the recent rift between himself and 19-year-old Vivian Jenna Wilson — instead blaming the Crossroads School for Arts & Sciences in Santa Monica for infecting her with the “woke mind virus.” Wilson’s transition was part of a domino effect that led to Musk buying the social media app as part of his mission to stomp out wokeness, according to an excerpt of the upcoming biography “Elon Musk” that was published in the Wall Street Journal Thursday.The SpaceX founder told author Walter Isaacson that he was initially “generally sanguine” with his child’s decision until in April 2022 when Wilson “became a fervent Marxist and broke off all relations with him,” the excerpt reveals. That year, Wilson was granted a petition to change her gender, as well as her name, which she hoped would demolish any connection between herself and her biological father.“She went beyond socialism to being a full communist and thinking that anyone rich is evil,” said Musk, whose net worth is estimated at $257.5 billion.
Yale agrees to settle lawsuit alleging discrimination against students with mental health disabilities — Yale University agreed to settle a lawsuit alleging the prestigious university discriminated against students with mental health disabilities, according to a joint statement from the university and plaintiffs.The lawsuit, filed in Connecticut federal court last November by current students and the non-profit Elis for Rachael, alleged the Ivy League school forced students to withdraw after they showed symptoms of severe mental health disability. In the settlement agreement, Yale’s undergraduate branch agreed to modify various university policies regarding mental health, including allowing part-time study for students with urgent medical needs and making it easier for students to return from medical leave. Many of these policies were implemented in January and the rest went into effect on Friday, according to a university spokesperson. The agreement still needs to be approved by the court. The November lawsuit alleged that Yale officials pressured students to take “voluntary” leaves of absence for at least one or two terms when they experienced significant mental health symptoms by suggesting they would otherwise face an “involuntary” withdrawal. Students who withdrew from the university were barred from visiting campus and all campus activities without prior permission from the school, according to the lawsuit.Under the terms of the settlement, Yale modified its medical leave of absence policy, in part by removing a mandatory minimum amount of time required to be away, according to the statement from Elis for Rachael. The university also “streamlined and clarified” the process of reinstatement and agreed to allow students on medical leave to have more access to campus, the non-profit’s statement said.
Database shows city, JHU paying fossil fuel lobbying firms — A new database shows Johns Hopkins University, the city of Baltimore, and dozens of other Maryland institutions that work to improve the state's environment are also paying lobbying firms that represent the fossil fuel industry, the 11 News I-Team has learned. The group F Minus found more than 150 universities and more than 200 local governments across the country are paying lobbying firms that also work for the fossil fuel industry. In 2017, trustees of Johns Hopkins University voted to divest from coal, signaling that renewable energy was the future. In 2018, the city of Baltimore sued ExxonMobil and other fossil fuel companies for damages related to climate change. James Browning is the executive director of the national nonprofit F Minus, which aims to expose the lobbying firms working double duty to advance the goals of the fossil fuel industry while also representing those that want to reduce the effects of climate change. He told the I-Team that there is one problem. "So, Hopkins shares a lobbyist with seven fossil fuel companies -- two of those companies have coal operations," Browning said. Then, there's the city of Baltimore. "One thing we found was that it's suing ExxonMobil, among other companies, but the city's own lobbying firm actually has ExxonMobil as a client," Browning said. "I'm sorry, city of Baltimore, I'm sorry, Johns Hopkins, for the inconvenience. But, you know, you need to find lobbyists who aren't making the climate crisis worse." A review of the Maryland lobbying registrations website shows Browning, a former lobbyist in Annapolis, is right. Browning told the I-Team that when Hopkins and Baltimore chose to use the lobbying firms, they provided cover for the less-desirable fossil fuel companies. "If you were a lobbyist in Annapolis and your only client is ExxonMobil, some other oil and gas company, you are going to get a lot of doors closed in your face," Browning said. "But if you can land some prestigious clients, like Johns Hopkins University, like the city of Baltimore, it's a different story." Browning said Hopkins and Baltimore, as well as dozens of other Maryland institutions doing the same thing, have another option. "If they stood up and said, 'We're not going to work with fossil fuel lobbyists anymore,' that would matter," Browning said. The I-Team requested interviews with Hopkins and with Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott, but both declined.
Study: Children's health system wasted $230,000 worth of antibiotics in 2 years -- A pediatric hospital system wasted 58,607 antibiotic doses worth more than $230,000, including drugs in limited US supply, in 2 years, finds a study today inInfection Control & Hospital Epidemiology.A team led by Emory University researchers calculated the number of wasted antibiotic doses dispensed at Children's Healthcare of Atlanta from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021. The system has three hospitals with more than 600 beds.Wasted antibiotics were defined as unused doses returned to the pharmacy and unable to be reassigned. Such drugs include those in intravenous (IV) solutions and doses based on patient weight.During the study, 58,607 antibiotic doses ordered for 17,319 patients were wasted, for an average of 80 daily doses and 169 doses per 1,000 patient-days. Nearly all (99.4%) of the doses were either IV or suspension solutions and the syringes needed to deliver them; the remaining doses were tablets.A total of 23% of doses were ordered on the first or second day of hospitalization, and 36% were ordered on the day of hospital release. Ten antibiotics made up 77% of the wasted doses, led by ampicillin (13%), clindamycin (13%), and cefazolin (9%). Eight of the 10 most-wasted antibiotics were currently in shortage or were in shortage in the past 3 years.General pediatric prescriptions made up 41% of doses, followed by critical care (9%), hematology/oncology (8%), and surgery (6%). Total weight of the wasted doses, syringes, and carrier fluid was 2,508 kilograms (5,529 pounds).Estimated cost of the waste was $255,503. The syringes and normal saline totaled $14,570 and $7,805, respectively, and the antibiotics cost $233,128. The five most expensive drugs wasted per milligram, totaling $36,541, were tigecycline (5 doses), ceftaroline (84), ceftazidime-avibactam (30), ertapenem (16), and IV sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim (163)."The amount of waste is high, partially avoidable, with no contribution to improving patient outcomes," the authors wrote. "High-priority targets to use antibiotic resources wisely include empiric optimization to minimize drug changes within 24 hours of admission and planning around the time of discharge."
8-30-2033 Update on SARS CoV-2 Variant BA.2.86 | CDC --CDC is tracking a new SARS-CoV-2 variant called BA.2.86 and working to better understand its potential impact on public health. This update follows CDC’s initial risk assessment summary on August 23, 2023. The updated COVID-19 vaccine will be available in mid-September. Since CDC’s initial risk assessment, this variant has been identified in additional countries from both human and wastewater specimens. The variant has been identified in at least four states in the United States in samples from either people or wastewater. This variant is currently being studied in the laboratory to help understand how the immune system may interact with this virus. The current increases in cases and hospitalizations in the United States are likely being driven by infections with XBB lineage viruses, not the new BA.2.86 variant. Over the last few weeks, a new variant called BA.2.86 has been detected in a small number of samples from infected people and waste (sewer) water in several countries, including the United States. This variant is notable because it has multiple genetic differences compared to previous versions of SARS-CoV-2 and it has been detected in several locations within a short amount of time. Based on current information, existing tests used to detect and medications used to treat COVID-19 continue to be effective with this variant. Scientists are evaluating how previous immunity from vaccinations or past infections protect against this new variant. Tests of how well antibodies block the virus from infecting cells give us one measure of how well one part of the immune system might handle BA.2.86. Along with antibodies, other parts of the immune system have important roles in protecting people from the most severe outcomes of COVID-19. These other parts of the immune system have been less affected by viral evolution and are not predicted to have decreased activity against BA.2.86.CDC’s current assessment is that the updated COVID-19 vaccine, which will be available in mid-September, will likely be effective at reducing severe disease and hospitalization. Immune responses generated from prior infection also help protect against severe outcomes of COVID-19. There is currently no evidence that this variant is causing more severe illness. That assessment may change as additional scientific data are developed. CDC remains committed to releasing updates on trends and observations of this variant.
New BA.2.86 COVID Variant May Cause Breakthrough Infections - A new COVID-19 variant may be more likely to cause breakthrough infection, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The CDC released a risk assessment Wednesday, breaking down information regarding the new variant. “BA.2.86 may be more capable of causing infection in people who have previously had COVID-19 or who have received COVID-19 vaccines,” the assessment read. Meaning, it may be more likely to cause breakthrough infections than previous strains of the virus.The CDC also broke down where the variant has been spotted, how severe an illness it may cause, and whether current treatments are effective against it. Nicknamed “Pirola,” BA.2.86 was first identified on July 24, 2023. The World Health Organization recently added the new variant to its list of “currently circulating variants under monitoring,” noting that the strain has a “large number of mutations identified.” So far, nine cases of BA.2.86 have been detected—three in Denmark, two in South Africa, two in the U.S., one in the U.K., and one in Israel. One of the cases in the U.S. was a person in Michigan, with the Michigan Health Department noting in astatement on X (formerly known as Twitter) that the patient who contracted the strain is an older adult with “mild symptoms” who hasn’t been hospitalized. BA.2.86 is a subvariant of Omicron, which has been the dominant strain in the U.S. since late 2021, but “it has many, many more mutations than the mutations of each of the variants before,” Timothy Murphy, MD, senior associate dean for clinical and translational research at the University at Buffalo Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, told Health. Specifically, BA.2.86 has more than 35 amino acid changes to its spike protein than the recently circulating XBB.1.5, which the fall COVID-19 booster was based on, Murphy said.The CDC pointed out that this change is “roughly of the same magnitude” as the switch between the Delta strain of COVID-19 and the initial Omicron variant, BA.1.It's the spike protein mutations that make this variant likely to cause breakthrough infections.“The virus uses the spike protein to bind the disease to cells,” Murphy said. “That’s what the vaccines are directed against.” With so many mutations in the spike protein, there is a greater chance that the vaccine and having previously been infected with COVID-19 won’t offer as much protection against BA.2.86 as prior strains of the virus, William Schaffner, MD, an infectious disease specialist and professor at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, told Health. “Initially, officials thought that BA.2.86 was not all that much different but, now that they’ve noted there are many mutations, they’ve at least raised the question about whether there may be some immune evasion on the part of this strain,” Schaffner said. The CDC said it’s “too soon to know the real-world impacts on immunity” of BA.2.86. However, the agency noted that many people have immunity, either from previous infection, the vaccine, or both. “It is likely that these antibodies will continue to provide some protection against severe disease from this variant,” the CDC said.
COVID Omicron carries 4 times the risk of death as flu, new data show -- The risk of death from SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection was four times higher than that from influenza in late 2022 and early 2023 in France, a Harvard Medical School researcherreports today in Epidemiology & Infection. Biostatistician Edward Goldstein, PhD, estimated the contribution of flu and Omicron variant infections to all-cause death in France for the 2014-15 through the 2018-19 influenza seasons, as well as from week 33, 2022, through week 12, 2023."For many deaths associated with influenza and Omicron infections, those viruses are not detected, or listed as a contributing cause of death," he wrote. After the emergence of the Omicron variant in 2022, France saw a high proportion of intensive care unit admissions and deaths from causes other than COVID-19 compared with previous variants. Flu was tied to a yearly average of 15,654 deaths during the 2014-15 through 2018-19 seasons and 7,851 deaths from week 33, 2022, to week 12, 2023. During the latter period, 32,607 people died of COVID-19, or their deaths were related to the disease.Omicron infections weren't recorded as a contributing cause for many deaths attributed to cardiac disease, mental disorders, and other underlying causes. For instance, there were an estimated 23,983 SARS-CoV-2–associated deaths from week 33 to week 52 in 2022, compared with 12,811 deaths listing COVID-19 on the death certificate and 8,639 in-hospital COVID-19 deaths. In France, rates of flu vaccination among nursing home staff are low, despite vaccination leading to a significant reduction in all-cause death among residents during flu seasons, Goldstein noted.The results "suggest the need for boosting influenza vaccination coverage in different population groups in France, and for wider detection of influenza infections in respiratory illness episodes (including pneumonia) in combination with the use of antiviral medications," he wrote. "For future Omicron epidemics, wider detection of Omicron infections in persons with underlying health conditions is needed."
Data reveal increased gestational weight gain during COVID-19 -- Yesterday in JAMA, researchers analyzed data from the Pennington Biomedical Research Center and Woman's Hospital in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, to show that more women exceeded the recommended gestational weight gain (GWG) during the pandemic.The hospital, the largest in Louisiana, attended to 23,000 deliveries from March 2019 to March 2022. Of women included in the study, 38% were Black, 51.2% were white, and the mean maternal age was 28.9 years.After the pandemic began, pregnant women were 3% to 7% more likely to exceed the recommended GWG, seen in 45.4% of pregnant women in 2021, at the peak of the pandemic, and 44.0% later in the pandemic. To compare, only 42.0% of women in 2019 exceeded weight-gain recommendations. For women who delivered toward the end of the study period (March 13, 2021, to March 12, 2022) GWG mirrored prepandemic numbers, but women began pregnancy slightly heavier than before the pandemic. The average for starting weight was higher by 0.82 kilograms (roughly 2 pounds) compared to prepandemic weight.
A few more BA.2.86 COVID-19 detections noted in human samples, wastewater -In the latest developments on the BA.2.86 Omicron SARS-CoV-2 subvariant, a few more sequences and wastewater findings were detected in the United States in Europe, according to scientists tracking the viruses and uploads to publicly available databases. Two sequences were reported from Portugal, which have August 15 collection dates.Ohio, which had a preliminary positive from wastewater, now has a BA.2.86-positive human sample, which was collected on July 29. Marc Johnson, PhD, a molecular virologist at the University of Missouri School of Medicine, said the patient sample was collected from the same general area as Ohio's wastewater sample and that the Ohio sample matches a sublineage that includes earlier Danish and UK samples, which differs from an earlier Michigan sample that was related to the lineage that includes Israel's sample. The different lineages hint at three separate introductions into the United States, he said.In Switzerland, the latest wastewater sequencing data found BA.2.86 detections from more regions, which have collection dates that range from August 8 to August 14. Last week, the country reported its first wastewater detections, in Bern canton.Global health groups are closely monitoring developments with the BA.2.86 strain due to its many mutations and detections from multiple world regions. Earlier this month, the World Health Organization added it as a variant under monitoring. So far, it's not known if the virus has the ability to easily escape immunity from earlier infection or vaccination. Based on a few cases, there's no evidence that infections involving the virus are more severe.
Fauci defends masking as COVID cases rise: ‘I would hope’ people abide by recommendations - Former White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci on Saturday defended masking amid a rise in COVID cases across the country, saying he hopes people would listen to advice from health officials. In an interview on CNN, Fauci said he is worried Americans won’t listen to recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) — even if masking becomes necessary again. “I am concerned that people will not abide by recommendations,” he said. “I would hope that if we get to the point that the volume of cases is such and organizations like the CDC recommends — CDC does not mandate anything — recommends that people wear masks, I would hope that people abide by that recommendation and take into account the risks to themselves and their families.”A small number of companies have already started asking employees to wear masks again, raising concerns that national recommendations may be needed again soon. Fauci, who served as the face of the COVID response in the U.S. under the Trump and Biden administrations, said a study from earlier this year which claims masking is ineffective was actually misleading.“When you’re talking about the effect on the pandemic as a whole, the data is less strong,” Fauci, who retired from his senior health post last year, said. “But when you talk about an individual basis of someone protecting themselves… There’s no doubt that there’s many studies that show that there is an advantage [to masks].”The study, from respected British database Cochrane, claims that masking “probably makes little or no difference.” It went viral in anti-mask and COVID-skeptic communities this spring, but has been called out as misleading by fact checkers.
Federal appeals court revives lawsuit against FDA over COVID-19 ivermectin messaging -A federal appeals court ruled Friday that a lawsuit against the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) over its campaign against the use of ivermectin to treat COVID-19 can continue, reversing a lower court decision. Three doctors sued the FDA last year claiming that the agency’s anti-ivermectin campaign went too far, overstepping its authority and acting more as a medical body than a regulator. A district court ruled that the suit could not continue, but the 5th Circuit Appeals Court revived the doctors’ hope in its Friday ruling, sending the case back to lower court where it will be reconsidered. “FDA is not a physician. It has authority to inform, announce, and apprise—but not to endorse, denounce, or advise,” Judge Don Willett wrote for the appeals court. “The Doctors have plausibly alleged that FDA’s Posts fell on the wrong side of the line between telling about and telling to.” The FDA’s campaign, which included viral signs reading “You are not a horse,” emphasizedagency recommendations that ivermectin — an anti-parasite medication often used for horses but sometimes prescribed to humans — should not be used to treat COVID-19.
Canada detects first case of highly mutated coronavirus variant BA.2.86 (Reuters) - Canada has detected its first case of coronavirus infection from the highly mutated BA.2.86 variant of Omicron in a person in British Columbia who had not traveled outside the Pacific province, health officials said on Tuesday.The individual is not hospitalized, and the detection of BA.2.86 virus has not changed the risk to people in British Columbia, the province's top doctor, Bonnie Henry, and Health Minister Adrian Dix said in a joint statement."It was not unexpected for BA.2.86 to show up in Canada and the province," they said. "COVID-19 continues to spread globally, and the virus continues to adapt."The BA.2.86 lineage, first detected in Denmark last month, carries more than 35 mutations in key portions of the virus compared with XBB.1.5, the dominant variant through most of 2023. The United States, Switzerland and Israel have also recorded cases of the new variant.The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said last week the BA.2.86 variant may be more capable of causing infection in people who have previously had COVID-19 or who have received preventive vaccines.Scientists have said that while it was important to monitor BA.2.86, it was unlikely to cause a devastating wave of severe disease and death given immune defenses built up worldwide from vaccination and prior infection.Canadian health authorities have noted an uptick in COVID infections in recent weeks, though virus activity remains relatively low, Health Canada said in a weekly update earlier on Tuesday.
Limited data suggest rising global COVID-19 activity -- Though case reporting doesn't accurately reflect COVID-19 activity because of decreased testing and reporting, the number reported over the past month increased by 63%, with increased cases reported in three regions, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in its latest weekly update yesterday.During an online Q and A session today, Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, the WHO's technical lead for COVID, said the latest update is the WHO's final weekly report as it transitions to monthly reporting. Europe, the Western Pacific, and the Eastern Mediterranean regions all noted rises in infections. No reporting data were available from the Americas. Deaths were up in one region, the Eastern Mediterranean.Over the past month, only 44% of countries reported any cases to the WHO, a proportion that has been declining since the middle of 2022. Of reporting countries, some of those with upward trends include Iran, Belgium, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and South Korea.Of the 19 countries that regularly report data on hospitalization for COVID, eight reported increases of 20% or more compared to the previous month: Bangladesh, Ireland, Greece, Kyrgyzstan, the United States, Malta, Mexico, and the Netherlands. Of 17 countries that regularly report intensive care unit admissions, 6 reported increases of 20% or more: Ireland, Malta, Singapore, Latvia, Greece, and the Netherlands.The WHO's variant tracking shows that XBB.1.16 and EG.5 are the most common variants of interest, and EG.5 is the only one showing an increase. The agency said the potential impact of BA.2.86 mutations is currently undergoing careful assessment, and so far no deaths have been reported in any patients infected with the variant.
Two cases of new COVID Omicron sub-variant reported in Thailand | Thai PBS - Two new cases of COVID-19 Omicron sub-variant HK.3 infection have recently been detected in Thailand, but both patients have already recovered and their symptoms were not serious, said Dr. Supakit Sirilak, director-general of the Medical Sciences Department today (Wednesday). He said that the two cases, a 65-year-old man and an 11-year-old girl, were members of the same family in Bangkok who were diagnosed with HK.3 and have already recovered, adding that it will take about two weeks to determine whether the new sub-variant is highly transmissible. He disclosed that, during the past two weeks, 15 cases of the EG.5 sub-variant had been detected, plus 8 more cases more recently, as the sub-variant is spreading with the likelihood that it may replace XBB.1.16 as the dominant sub-variant in Thailand. According to GISAID, worldwide cases of XBB.1.5 are declining while, XBB.1.16 and BA.2.75 cases remain stable, with EG.5 emerging as the dominant sub-variant, said Dr. Supakit. As for the BA.2.86 sub-variant, he said that it was detected in waste water in Bangkok in July, but it has not been found in humans yet, although the sub-variant is being kept under watch.
EU regulators backs Pfizer's updated vaccine for dominant Omicron subvariant (Reuters) - EU regulators have recommended authorizing an updated COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech which targets the dominant XBB.1.5 variant of Omicron, putting it on track to become the third adapted shot by the two companies to be approved in the bloc. The vaccine, dubbed Comirnaty, is to be used for preventing COVID-19 in adults and children with a dosage dependent on previous vaccinations. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) said on Wednesday its human medicines committee (CHMP) had recommended the updated vaccine for children six months through four years of age as part or all of the primary three-dose vaccination series, depending on how many prior doses they had received. It could be a single dose for those with a history of completion of a COVID-19 primary vaccination course or prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, the committee added. Meanwhile, adults and children from five years of age who require vaccination should have a single dose, irrespective of their COVID-19 vaccination history, CHMP said. Vaccine makers including Moderna and Novavax have also created versions of their shots aimed at the XBB.1.5 subvariant of the virus. Pfizer and BioNTech have also filed applications with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration requesting approval of the updated vaccines and a decision is expected in coming days. Recommendations made by the CHMP will have to be formally approved by the European Commission. Other Comirnaty adapted vaccines targeted the Ba.4-5 and Ba.1 subvariants of Omicron. "This season’s vaccine is ready to ship as soon as the final regulatory decision is made, so that people across Europe can better help protect themselves against COVID-19 illness as the risk rises," Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in a statement.
Study: China saw almost 2 million excess deaths just after zero-COVID policy ended In JAMA Network Open, authors describe how the all-cause mortality rate in China increased after the nation lifted its "zero COVID" policy, resulting in an estimated 1.87 million excess deaths during the first 2 months following the end of the policy.The study was based on obituary reports of employees at three major Chinese universities in December 2022 to January 2023, and the authors built a model that took the relative increase in mortality in Beijing and Heilongjiang and extrapolated it to the rest of China.Using the model, the researchers estimated 1.87 million excess deaths (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71 million to 4.43 million; 1.33 per 1,000 population) among people 30 years and olderAmong those deaths in Beijing, 76% (95% CI, 65% to 84%) were men, and 80% (95% CI, 70% to 87%) were 85 years and older. Death counts peaked in the fourth week of December 2022."The number of deaths in universities in Beijing showed a substantial increase compared with expected deaths, with a rise of 403% (95% CI, 351% to 461%) and 56% (95% CI, 41% to 73%) during December 2022 and January 2023," the authors wrote.The authors acknowledge their estimate far exceeds what China reported, which was 60,000 excess deaths in December 2022.
Study estimates 1.4 million deaths shortly after 'zero COVID' ended in China -By December 2022, China had ended its strict zero-COVID policy, which resulted in a wave of infections. A new analysis published in Emerging Infectious Diseases estimates that 1.41 million COVID-19 deaths occurred in the 35 days following the relaxation of China's policy.The number comes from a model researchers in the US and Hong Kong developed using daily test positivity reports from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) sentinel household surveillance system from December 16, 2022, to January 19, 2023. Those numbers were paired with known data on vaccination numbers in China, infection fatality rates, vaccine effectiveness, and rates of immunity waning.According to the researchers, the sentinel surveillance report from China CDC suggests that roughly 90% of China’s population were infected during the study’s 35-day period. Based on the model, this would have caused 1.41 million deaths (95% credibility interval [CrI], 1.14 to 1.73) across China; 0.80 (95% CrI, 0.60 to 1.05) million of those deaths occurring among those 80 years and older.China's official reports may underestimate the COVID-19 death toll by a factor of 17 (95% CrI 14 to 22), the authors said. The findings are in line with another model estimate published last week in JAMA Network Open, which suggested 1.87 million excess deaths within 2 months of the end of zero-COVID. China reported 60,000 excess deaths in December 2022."The decision to relax China's zero-COVID policies without adequate measures to protect high-risk populations had severe consequences," the authors of the current study wrote. "Other countries prioritized vaccines for older age groups and other vulnerable populations, and many studies have indicated that targeting medical countermeasures and protective measures toward groups with high infection-fatality rates can be life and cost saving."
Report describes MDR-TB outbreak in Kansas, neighboring state - Investigators say a rare outbreak of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in a social network in Kansas provides a "cautionary tale" for areas with low TB incidence. The outbreak, described today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, involved 13 people in Kansas and one in a neighboring state and was initially identified in a hospitalized infant in Kansas in November 2021. Resistance to the four drugs that constitute first-line TB therapy was confirmed by DNA sequencing and drug-susceptibility tests. Investigation by public health officials identified four additional members in the infant's household with MDR-TB. In January 2022, an infant from a second household in the same apartment complex was hospitalized with TB, and culture-based testing identified the same drug susceptibility pattern as the first household. MDR-TB infection was then detected in the child's mother and four additional household members. Further investigation revealed the families in the two households had extensive social contact and shared a car to commute to the same workplace. Additional cases were subsequently identified in two households in a different neighborhood that were connected to the first two households, and in a child in a neighboring state who had connections with the second household. Nine cases of latent TB infection were also identified in the four Kansas households. To date, 13 of the 14 individuals with MDR-TB have completed treatment, and one declined treatment. The nine individuals with latent TB have also completed treatment. The patients will be examined every 6 months for more than 2 years after treatment completion. Investigators say that while identifying a source of the outbreak is difficult, it's plausible that it may have begun with a non–US-born adult in one of the first two households who had been infected overseas and went untreated, leading to further transmission. MDR-TB cases in the United States tend to be detected among non—US-born individuals. Only 77 cases were identified in the United States in 2021.
Study highlights threat from Klebsiella bloodstream infections -- A study of patients with bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae highlights the diversity of the opportunistic pathogen and the high in-hospital mortality risk in certain patients, researchers reported late last week inClinical Infectious Diseases.In the study, researchers used clinical and microbiology data to evaluate a cohort of patients with K pneumoniae BSI at Massachusetts General Hospital from 2016 through 2022. Although several studies have analyzed BSI caused by highly resistant or hypervirulent strains of K pneumoniae, few have attempted to understand K pneumoniae BSI in general clinical settings and evaluate risk factors for acquisition and in-hospital mortality.Among 562 patients with K pneumoniae BSIs, intra-abdominal infection (34%) was the most common source of infection, followed by urinary tract, central venous catheter, and respiratory infections. Twenty percent of K pneumoniae isolates were resistant to ceftriaxone, 3% were resistant to carbapenems, and 16% were multidrug-resistant.A respiratory source of infection was associated with a more than five-times higher mortality rate (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 5.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2 to 12.8) compared with other sources, as was resistance to the first antibiotic prescribed (aOR, 5.22; 95% CI, 2.2 to 12.4). Other independent risk factors of in-hospital mortality were intensive care unit admission (aOR, 5.06; 95% CI, 2.92 to 9.07) and hematologic malignancy (aOR, 4.48; 95% CI, 2.13 to 9.41).Whole-genome sequencing of 94 K pneumoniae isolates revealed high diversity, with 70 sequence types represented, and no clusters of cases that were epidemiologically or genetically linked. Virulence factors associated with invasiveness were observed at a low prevalence."In our large, unselected cohort we found that K. pneumoniae BSI was not driven by a restricted population of bacteria with increased potential for invasion and dissemination, but rather by diverse strains with potential to cause invasive disease in compromised hosts," the study authors wrote, which they say suggests that either community acquisition is the driving factor or that there is a large reservoir of K pneumoniae strains in the healthcare environment.
Study: Ultraviolet light has no measurable impact on healthcare-associated superbug infections -A systematic review and meta-analysis found that room disinfection with ultraviolet-C (UV-C) devices had little impact on the incidence of healthcare-associated multidrug-resistant organism (MDRO) infections, researchers reported today in Epidemiology & Infection. The study, conducted by Chinese researchers, analyzed nine previously studies that examined the impact of UV-C devices on the incidence of Clostridioides difficile, vancomycin-resistant Enterococci (VRE), methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, and gram-negative rod-shaped bacteria. While healthcare settings typically use a wide range of chemical disinfectants to prevent and control the spread of these organisms on surfaces in patients' rooms, which are highly susceptible to MDRO contamination, additional cleaning with no-touch technologies like ultraviolet light has shown some potential to further reduce incidence. The nine studies all examined use of UV-C disinfection systems.Pooled analysis indicated no statistically significant reduction in C difficile (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62 to 1.32) or VRE (IRR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.38 to 1.78) infection rates with the use of UV-C disinfection systems. "We found no advantages for the use of UV-C in healthcare settings as an adjunct to conventional infection prevention modalities to reduce the incidence of MDRO," the study authors wrote.
Polio remains emergency as 3 African countries report new cases --The World Health Organization's polio emergency committee met again last week and recommended that, although encouraging progress has been made, the situation still warrants a public health emergency of international concern. The news comes as more cases are confirmed in Africa.The concern stems from activity in a handful of countries. In Afghanistan, a large pool of unvaccinated "zero dose" children could reintroduce wild-type poliovirus into the southern region. The WHO also noted suboptimal immunization coverage during campaigns in southeastern Africa, in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe."There may be insufficient population immunity to halt transmission," the WHO wrote. "Many countries have weak immunization systems that were further impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic but are gradually recovering."Three African countries—Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Kenya—reported more polio cases this week, all vaccine-derived types, according to the latest Global Polio Eradication Initiativereport. In Chad, 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) cases were reported, in Ouaddai and Mayo Kebbi Est. The country has had 25 cases this year. In the DRC, 3 cVDPV2 cases were reported in Mongala and Haut Lomami; there have now been 65 cVDPV2 cases reported in the DRC this year, compared with 368 such cases in 2022. The DCR also confirmed a circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 1 (cVDPV1) case, raising the year's total to 48.
FDA sends warning letters to three infant formula manufacturers over federal violations --The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) sent warning letters to three infant formula manufacturers over violations of federal safety regulations, the agency announced Wednesday. ByHeart, Mead Johnson Nutrition and Perrigo Wisconsin were issued letters after FDA inspections of their facilities as they implemented limited recalls of some of their products over health concerns regarding the bacterium Cronobacter sakazakii, which can be found in dry foods.The agency said the letters are not tied to current recalls and that products from the companies currently on the market don’t pose a risk to consumers.“The FDA is issuing these letters now as part of its normal regulatory process and to reinforce to these firms the importance of instituting and maintaining appropriate corrective actions when they detect pathogens to ensure compliance with the FDA’s laws and regulations,” the agency said in a statement.The letters mandate that the companies commit to extensive cleaning and sanitation regiments, conduct investigations into the contaminations and reevaluate company sanitation policies. The companies have 15 working days to create corrective plans for FDA review. The agency will also evaluate the “adequacy” of the companies’ responses when it next inspects their facilities.“The FDA is committed to identifying and acting on issues early to prevent any firms from reaching the level of concern that prompted last year’s large-scale recall and contributed to the infant formula shortage,” said Donald Prater, acting director of the FDA’s Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition. The health warnings come after a year of shortages in the baby formula market in 2022. The FDA said stock rates of baby formula are at about 85 percent nationwide since January.That shortage was caused by a combination of health concerns, supply chain woes and a lacking FDA response, an internal agency investigation found.
Marijuana users have elevated levels of heavy metals in their blood, urine: study -A study has found that marijuana users have elevated levels of heavy metals in their blood and urine compared to those who do not use marijuana.The study, published Wednesday in the Environmental Health Perspectives journal, found that marijuana users had higher levels of lead in their blood and urine compared to non-marijuana users. Conducted at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, the study used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and conducted the research with a group of more than 7,200 participants.The researchers split participants into five groups: non-marijuana/non-tobacco, exclusive marijuana, exclusive tobacco, and dual marijuana and tobacco use. They measured five different metals in participants’ blood and 16 in their urine.“Because the cannabis plant is a known scavenger of metals, we had hypothesized that individuals who use marijuana will have higher metal biomarker levels compared to those who do not use,” author Katlyn McGraw, postdoctoral researcher in Columbia Public Health’s Department of Environmental Health Sciences, said in a press release.“Our results therefore indicate marijuana is a source of cadmium and lead exposure,” she added.According to the World Health Organization, there is no healthy level of lead concentration, especially for children. Lead can cause permanent intellectual disabilities, behavioral disorders and even death. The organization also considers cadmium a human carcinogen that can create toxic effects on the kidneys, skeletal and respiratory systems.
Florida reports new dengue, eastern equine encephalitis cases --In its latest arbovirus surveillance report, the Florida Department of Health (Florida Health) reported one more locally acquired dengue cases and a second infection involving eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) virus. The report covers the epidemiologic week ending August 26.The dengue case is in Miami-Dade County, where most previous cases have been from. The new illness raises the total for the year to 16. Florida often reports sporadic local dengue infections, and Florida Health has noted that infected travelers can pass the virus to local mosquito populations.In other mosquito-borne illness developments, Florida health reported its second EEE case of the year, which involves a person from Suwannee County, which is located in the north-central part of the state. The first EEE case of the year was reported in a patient from St Johns County, home to St Augustine. Florida typically reports one or two human EEE cases each year.
Quick takes: Antifungal-resistant ringworm, avian flu in sea lions, dengue in Italy | CIDRAP
- In an August 25 clinicians outreach message, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) urged healthcare providers to consider antifungal-resistant ringworm infections in patients with widespread lesions, especially when the condition doesn't improve with first-line topical antifungal agents or oral terbinafine. The CDC said ringworm caused by Tinea indotineae is often resistant to antifungals and can cause widespread, highly inflamed lesions on the face, trunk, arms, legs, or groin. Outbreaks have been reported on the Indian subcontinent, with cases found throughout Asia and Europe. New York City dermatologists have reported severe infections, including fungal nail infections that are resistant to terbinafine. Though a recent review of resistant isolates found that 19% of samples in the United States and Canada were resistant to terbinafine, more data are needed to understand the extent of the problem, the CDC added.
- Argentina has reported H5 avian flu in South American sea lions at four locations, according to a notification from the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH). The outbreaks began from August 8 to August 21 and involved 57 seals found sick or dead. The locations are Santa Cruz province in the south, Tierra del Fuego in the Antarctica gateway area, Buenos Aires province in the southwest, and Rio Negro province's Patagonian region in the south.
- Italian health officials recently reported four locally acquired dengue cases, including three from the same neighborhood in Lombardy region, according to the most recent weekly communicable disease updatefrom the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). The fourth case involved a patient from Lazio region, and investigators have found no link between the case there and the ones in Lombardy. The cases are Italy's first local cases since 2020. Earlier this summer, France reported two local cases. The ECDC said Aedes albopictus mosquito populations that harbor dengue viruses are established in most of Europe and that more introductions could be reported from other countries, especially since weather conditions in most areas where the mosquito is found are favorable for vector propagation.
H9 avian flu infects child in China - China has reported H9 avian flu, likely H9N2, in a 4-year-old girl from Sichuan province, Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection said in its weekly update.The girl's symptoms began on August 7, and the report did not say how she was exposed to the virus. Sichuan province is in southwestern China.If the infection is confirmed as H9N2, it will be China's first since late June. The country has reported four such cases over the past 6 months.The virus circulates in poultry in some Asian countries. Illnesses in humans are usually mild and are more likely to be reported in children, especially those who have contact with domestic poultry or their environments.
Shuttered EPA investigation could’ve brought 'meaningful reform' in Cancer Alley, documents reveal - As industrial plants have overtaken historic Black communities and burdened neighborhoods with toxic air pollution, environmental advocates and residents of Louisiana’s chemical corridor have spent decades calling for change.So when the country’s top environmental regulator opened ahigh-profile civil rights investigation into Louisiana’s Department of Environmental Quality last year, it felt like a watershed moment.For the first time, the Environmental Protection Agency stepped in to exercise its oversight and evaluate whether LDEQ has granted permits for companies to build and pollute in a way that has caused disproportionate harm to Black communities. Ultimately, they found signs that it has.After pledging to clean up Cancer Alley — the nickname for the heavily industrialized, 85-mile stretch of the Mississippi River between Baton Rouge and New Orleans — the EPA issued a letter in October 2022 detailing preliminary evidence of racial discrimination and noncompliance by the state.Advocates like Lisa Jordan, who leads the Tulane Environmental Law Clinic, and the clients she represents were cautiously optimistic.“We dared to hope,” said Jordan, who filed one of the complaints that led to EPA’s civil rights investigation.The EPA’s findings brought LDEQ to the negotiating table. Documents and emails newly uncovered by WWNO and WRKF show that staff from the two agencies spent months negotiating a 43-page agreement that would have fundamentally changed Louisiana's air pollution permitting program so that state regulators would have no longer allowed toxic emissions to disproportionately impact certain communities. While the EPA’s civil rights investigation could potentially have led to a consent decree that forced LDEQ to change, this voluntary agreement offered a path to reform without punishment.But, in late June, it all came to a grinding halt.The EPA abruptly closed the case and ended discussions with the LDEQ, stopping its investigation without coming to a resolution or releasing its findings. The decision blindsided the River Parish residents who took part in the complaints. "After all of that fighting, they just abandoned us.”
Global wildlife trafficking on the rise, aided by drug cartels - Global wildlife trafficking is on the rise, adding a dimension to transnational crime and increasing the risk that U.S. corporations could unwittingly become entangled in the illicit trade. A new white paper by Moody’s Analytics highlights the growing risk for private enterprise, and the growing involvement of transnational crime in wildlife smuggling. “Brands sometimes are involved in supply chains and they might not truly know who their supplier is,” said Richard Graham, Third Party Risk Management lead at Moody’s Analytics. “If you’re doing business with someone that is a supplier that is involved in some sort of wildlife trafficking, via animals or probably more likely the wood from different endangered trees, that’s a very bad story for your brand. It impacts reputational risk, and also it’s probably illegal.” Beyond reputational risks, wildlife trafficking is driving extinction, deforestation — particularly in the Amazon — as well as corruption at all levels of government. The practice has also become an attractive market for transnational criminal organizations such as drug cartels, which can use the practice to avoid money laundering sanctions. “The large Mexican criminal groups, the Cártel de Sinaloa and Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación are also involved in a wide variety of legal and illegal economies: timber, legal fishing as well as illegal fishing, water distribution and legal agriculture, are also increasingly involved in wildlife trafficking,” said Vanda Felbab-Brown, an expert on international organized crime at the Brookings Institution. “And they are paying in wildlife and timber products to Chinese criminal groups for their supply of precursor chemicals for the production of fentanyl,” Felbab-Brown added. According to a United States Financial Crimes Enforcement Network report cited by Moody’s, financial information reviewed from 2018-21 showed a 154 percent increase in wildlife trafficking during that period. But that financial information does not cover schemes like the cross-Pacific trade in kind between Mexican cartels and Chinese criminal organizations. The wildlife trade is also attractive to large criminal enterprises because it doesn’t require involvement throughout the entire supply chain, and because there is a large gray area where illicit goods can filter into the formal economy.
Extreme heat kills nearly 2 dozen cattle, forces evacuations from a nursing home and shuts down an ice cream parlor - — Nearly two dozen cattle died in Nebraska, more than 100 Missouri nursing home residents were evacuated and an ice cream shop in Iowa was forced to close as record-shattering heat engulfs more than 20 states. Excessive heat warnings, the most severe form of heat alert, spanned more than 1,100 miles Wednesday, from the Gulf Coast northward to central Minnesota. Twenty-two states were under some kind of heat alert Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will soar more than 20 degrees above what is typical for late August through the end of the week across the Plains, Midwest and South. Even locations that are acclimated to sweltering summer heat will face extreme conditions. By Friday, more than 65 million people will have experienced a temperature above 100 degre
Freight Rates Surge as Mississippi River Water Levels Drop -- The cost to transport America’s harvest from the Midwest to the rest of the world is soaring as shrinking water levels on the Mississippi River drive up barge freight rates — and the forecast for below-than-average rainfall offers no relief. Barge spot rates as of Aug. 29 in St. Louis are up 49% from last week and 42% from last year at $23.34 a ton. That’s up 85% from the past 3-year average, according to data from the Department of Agriculture released Wednesday. The data comes just as the US prepares to begin its soybean and corn harvest, signaling another tough year for US farmers who already are struggling with drought and fierce competition from Brazil and Russia. Last year, extremely low water levels on the Mississippi River stranded more than 2,000 barges, crippling commerce on the vital waterway. Water levels on the Mississippi River, which carries more than 45% of US agricultural exports, have been dropping since June, restricting the amount of grain allowed on each barge. This led to a tightening of barge supply as more barges are required to transport the same amount of grain. Transportation companies are “proactively reducing drafts as they are aware of the problems that heavier barges caused last time around,” said Susan David, a grain analyst for No Bull in St. Louis. “This year it feels like the market is better prepared to handle it.”
Unprecedented wildfires across Louisiana force multiple evacuations amid extreme drought - Louisiana has recorded an unprecedented amount of wildfires in August, forcing multiple southwestern towns to evacuate Thursday and state officials to implement a burn ban. The state is experiencing severe heat and drought conditions. In an email to CNN, Louisiana Department of Agriculture and Forestry spokesperson Jennifer Finely said 441 fires have burned from August 1 to August 24. At least 8,385 acres have burned from August 1 to August 25, Finley said, adding the number of acreage does not include the still-burning fire on Tiger Island, estimated to be more than 20,000 acres. “Tiger Island will not be known until it is out,” she said. As of Friday evening, there were at least six fires burning in Livingston, Sabine, Vernon and Beauregard Parishes. Gov. John Bel Edwards met with state and local officials Friday to assess the numerous wildfires burning throughout the state. At a Friday news conference in Beauregard Parish, where numerous communities are under mandatory evacuation, Edwards said officials are not dealing with one fire but fires all over the state “in a way that is very alarming.”According to CNN Weather, drought conditions have erupted quickly in southwest Louisiana, leaving 6% of the state in exceptional drought conditions. Nearly 50% of the state is in extreme conditions or worse. Around 77% of the state is in a severe drought or worse. In mid-July, there was no extreme drought in Louisiana.“Nobody alive in Louisiana has ever seen these conditions,” Edwards said. “It’s never been this hot, this dry, for this long.” “To have these fires burning the way they are and jumping fire lines, and when the wind picks up to have the fires burning in the crowns of trees rather than on the ground and low where they can be more easily contained, makes for a very difficult and dangerous situation,” the governor said.
First hurricanes, now wildfire: Louisiana parish takes on a new climate disaster As fire ravaged the pine forests just meters from her community, Necole Allen, her two daughters and other members of the small south-western Louisianacommunity of Graybow decided to take matters into their own hands.The Tiger Island fire had spread rapidly throughout Saturday, initially a vast plume on the horizon but within hours an inferno at the doorsteps of Graybow Road. It had doubled in size to more than 13,000 hectares (33,000 acres), the largest wildfire in Louisiana’s history.With local authorities overwhelmed, Allen began coordinating a volunteer brigade, which amassed seven bulldozers and an improvised fire engine: a large water tank and hose placed on the back of a truck. They set to work.“Bulldozing, pushing, plowing, hosing,” she said, recalling how flames had licked at the roadway almost “playing chicken” with houses dotted at the sides and radiating immense heat as night began to set in. They worked for almost 24 hours straight, and, remarkably, just one home in the community was lost. “In my entire life, I have never seen a fire this large,” said Allen, 45, on Monday afternoon, still exhausted as she surveyed the smoking embers and thick smog. The area was now contained, after help arrived from emergency services and national guard troops.The unprecedented ferocity of the Tiger Island fire, which as of Tuesday morning was still burning more than 12,000 hectares (30,000 acres) with only 50% containment, came amid an extreme drought and record heat in Louisiana, in one of the wettest US states currently in the peak of its annual hurricane season. Over the weekend, smoke from wildfires outside New Orleans brought sporadic haze into the city as temperatures soared to 41C (105F), marking the hottest weekend on record in the area.About 400 fires have burned in the state in recent weeks, causing at least two fatalities. It is part of a global wave of extreme weather that scientists warn will become the norm without drastic action to address the climate crisis. Disaster relief workers, stationed a few miles from the Tiger Island fire’s perimeter Monday, expressed exhaustion as they prepared hundreds of meals for first responders on the frontlines.In the town of DeRidder, Tom Bruce has responded to numerous disasters here in recent years, including when the area was struck by two back-to-back hurricanes in the summer of 2020. Some residents still have blue tarps covering their roofs three years later.“Every hurricane season, I think, ‘Gosh, I hope there’s not another one,’” Bruce said. “But nobody saw a fire coming. I’ll take a tropical storm any day over a wildfire. It’s what we’re used to.”Others expressed concerns about the long-term economic impact of the fire. Beauregard parish, in which DeRidder, Singer and other towns affected by the fire sit, is heavily dependent on the logging industry.Kelly Bailey, a district president of the parish police jury, a local governing authority, said in a phone interview that authorities were not yet sure how much timber had burned in the fire, but added: “This is going to kill our economy. I don’t know what else to tell you.”
Game Preserve Fire: Wildfire triggers evacuations in Huntsville, Texas | CNN — A large wildfire burning across 500 acres in Huntsville, Texas, forced some parts of the city to evacuate Friday, as forecasters are predicting extremely hot weather to persist over Labor Day weekend.According to the Texas A&M Forest Service, the fire, named the “Game Preserve Fire,” has burned an estimated 500 acres and is 0% contained.Aircraft are dropping water to assist with firefighting efforts, the Walker County Office of Emergency Management said. The county’s emergency management office has recommended evacuation for everyone within 3 miles of Lost Indian Camp Road. A large area northwest of Huntsville has been evacuated, Stephanie Harris, communications supervisor for the Walker County, told CNN.Huntsville, the county seat of Walker County, is located north of Houston, Texas.On July 21, Walker County issued a burn ban prohibiting outside burning. On Thursday night, the emergency management office said dry conditions led to critical fire weather conditions.Earlier Friday, Governor Greg Abbott announced he directed the Texas A&M Forest Service to activate an air tanker base in Austin to assist in wildfire suppression efforts across the state ahead of Labor Day weekend.The air tanker base, stationed at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, is equipped to handle all air tankers from the national fleet, the governor’s office said.“Additional resources through this airtanker base will provide even greater support to state and local officials as they swiftly respond,” the governor said in a news release. “With triple-digit heat forecasted for this Labor Day weekend, I urge Texans to remain weather-aware and limit any activities that may cause sparks or flames that could lead to accidental fires.” Large parts of the southern US, including Texas and Louisiana have experienced extreme heat and drought this summer, resulting in conditions conducive to wildfires. In June, Texas experienced a serious heat wave, with temperatures reaching triple-digits. And a wildfire in Austin burned for over two days and destroyed at least one apartment building in early August.
Oregon, Washington facing 17 'large' active wildfires totaling 125,000 acres — There are a total of 17 “large” wildfires actively burning in Oregon and Washington, the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center said in an Aug. 29 report. Nearly 5,000 firefighters are battling the various fires, consuming more than 125,000 acres of forest and grassland in the region. Northwest Interagency Coordination Center fire management specialist Zachary Ellinger told KOIN 6 News that these wildfire statistics account for all fires or fire complexes larger than 100 acres. However, there are many other smaller or still unknown fires that are currently not included in the report. “There are some fires that we either don’t know about or are not staffed,” Ellinger said. “What we do know is that there aren’t that many of those fires. We have active bands of lightning right now here in the Pacific Northwest, but we won’t know the full extent of those storms until they pass through. We’re not anticipating a great deal of new fire starts.” In Oregon, there are currently 12 “large” wildfires burning around the state spanning 95,405 acres. Approximately 3,362 firefighters have been assigned to these fires, including 151 engines and 37 firefighting helicopters. In Washington, firefighters are facing five “large” wildfires, which have burned a total of 33,128 acres. Roughly 1,546 firefighters are battling these fires, including 90 engines and 11 helicopters. The Northwest Interagency Coordination Center has listed the 17 notable wildfires burning in Oregon and Washington in order of current attack priority: 1. “The Tyee Ridge Complex Fire consists of 14 fires with multiple fires merging,” the report states. “The incident management team is managing 10 active fires within the Complex, one of which is the Cougar Creek 1 incident which is currently at 2,244 acres.”
B.C. extending state of emergency due to wildfires as winds expected to fan flames in northeast -- Emergency Management Minister Bowinn Ma says British Columbia is extending a state of emergency due to the ongoing wildfires that have devastated parts of the province. Ma announced the two-week extension at a provincial update on drought and wildfires on Thursday. The state of emergency, which was initially declared on Aug. 18, gives the province extended powers to respond to disasters such wildfires. The announcement comes despite a general improvement in wildfire conditions in southern parts of B.C., where rain has helped calm some of the flames. However, firefighters in the northeast say they are expecting strong winds to exacerbate fires burning near municipalities like Fort Nelson, Fort St. John, Chetwynd and Dawson Creek. "The north is not getting rain … what they are getting is significant winds," said Cliff Chapman, a director with the B.C. Wildfire Service (BCWS). "The north is not experiencing the same weather as the south is facing right now." Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement for northeast B.C. concerning widespread gusty winds Thursday night into Saturday. It says westerly or southwesterly winds of 40 km/h gusting to 60 km/h will develop late Thursday over southeastern Yukon and move into northeastern B.C. Friday morning. "These winds, in combination with ongoing severe drought and recent heat will lead to an increase in wildfire activity across the landscape," said the statement. Environment Canada said the windy conditions could also worsen air quality due to wildfire smoke and create hazards such as broken and falling tree branches.
Death toll rises to 21 as wildfires continue burning across Greece - (video) The ongoing wildfires have severely affected multiple regions in Greece. Areas such as Alexandroupolis, Dadia, Rodopi Municipalities in East Macedonia, Parintha in Attica, and Viotia in Central Greece are among the hardest hit. The Greek Civil Protection, on August 26, reported a new fire in Andros island, leading to urgent evacuations. Tragically, the death toll rose to 21 as another body was discovered by the fire service on August 24 near Lefkimi, situated between Alexandroupolis and Dadia. Local authorities reported some of the fires seem to have been set deliberately and the police have made 79 arson-related arrests so far. The Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) has seen contributions from 10 of its member and participating states towards ground operations in the affected regions. Responding to Greece’s call for aid on August 26 and 27, which included requests for aerial and ground forest firefighting modules, France stepped up on August 27 by offering a module consisting of two Canadair firefighting planes from the rescEU capacity. The European Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) further deployed two liaison officers to aid Greece in coordinating the EU’s assistance efforts. The Copernicus Emergency Management Service has been on high alert, with five activations resulting in the production of 20 detailed maps (categorized as EMSR686 to EMSR690) to assist in understanding the wildfire spread and affected areas. The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) predicts that the overall fire danger risk in Greece will be on a downtrend over the next 48 hours. However, despite the overall decrease, some areas are expected to face high to extreme fire danger levels, indicating the need for continued vigilance.
As search in Maui nears end, it's unclear how many lost their lives - — Crews in Hawaii have all but finished searching for victims of the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century, authorities said Tuesday, and it is unclear how many people perished. Three weeks after the fire devastated Maui’s historic seaside community of Lahaina, the count of the dead stands at 115. But an unknown number of people are still missing. Officials suggested that responders likely have already recovered any remains that are recognizable as such, and they are shifting the response to focus on removing hazardous waste and making the area safe for residents to begin returning. “We have wrapped up almost completely the search and recovery mission and moving into the next phase,” Darryl Oliveira, the interim administrator of the Maui Emergency Management Agency, said at a news conference. The next phase would be hazardous waste removal conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, he said. Maui Police Chief John Pelletier said urban search and rescue teams have “completed 100% of their area” but some search activity continues in the ocean off Lahaina. The FBI is searching 200 yards out, along a four-mile stretch of coastline, but no human remains have been found, he said. There are 110 missing persons reports filed with Maui police, and more than 50 of those remain open cases that are still actively being worked, he said. Although the initial land search is complete, authorities may also use details from the missing person reports to go over areas again, he added. “They say, ‘My loved one was here’ and this may be a data point and we can continue,” Pelletier said. “In case there was a chance that something needs to be further looked at, we’ve got archeologists and we’re gonna make sure that we can do that so, again, we do this the right way.” He asked for “trust and patience” as officials continue to identify remains and go through lists of the missing. So far, authorities have identified and notified the loved ones of 45 of those killed. They have collected DNA from 120 people to identify the dead and continue to see more samples.
Tornadoes, severe storms hit Michigan, Ohio, Ontario, killing at least five -- At least five people were killed and many more injured by a line of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes that rolled through southern Michigan, northern Ohio and southeastern Ontario last Thursday night (August 24) and early Friday morning. The storms left a path of destruction in their wake, with significant damage to homes and major flooding of roads and communities. The severe weather, including at least seven separate tornadoes, toppled trees and downed power lines. The storms left over 700,000 people without power in southern Michigan and northern Ohio. But power outages from similar storms were experienced as far south as Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. While the confirmed tornadoes were on the low end with regard to intensity, they still packed wind speeds of between 80 and 110 miles per hour. One touched down in Kent County, Michigan, home to the city of Grand Rapids, and a second landed in rural Ingham County, not far from the Michigan state capital, Lansing. Initially, the National Weather Service reported that two tornadoes had been confirmed, but the agency has since revised its report, saying it believes at least seven EF-0 and EF-1 tornadoes, as well as a possible EF-2, made ground contact. Thursday’s storms were the culmination of two days of severe weather that began Wednesday night with thunder storms and intense lightening lasting several hours. The storms on Thursday were worse, accompanied by wind gusts of up to 70 miles per hour and torrential rains that created dangerous conditions for driving, especially on certain Michigan roads that are notorious for flooding even in a moderate rainfall. Creeks and riverbanks overflowed. The city of Canton in western Wayne County, Michigan received seven inches of rain in a short time period and in many areas was under water. “The last two days have been extremely active compared to what we typically see in Michigan,” said Steve Considine, a senior National Weather Service forecaster in White Lake Township. It is likely that the severe weather is linked to the northward movement of the boundary between the persistent dome of extreme heat plaguing the American southwest and the relatively cooler air over the eastern Midwest and Great Lakes region. The meeting of these two very different air masses with regard to their temperatures created highly unstable conditions.
Hurricane “Idalia” threatens parts of Florida with catastrophic storm surge, U.S. - Idalia has strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane and is expected to become a major hurricane tonight before it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida on August 30, 2023. It is likely to still be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly when it reaches the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina on Wednesday.
- Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 3 to 4.5 m (10 to 15 feet) above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere between Aucilla River and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
- There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be prepared for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force winds are possible in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina where Hurricane Watches are in effect.
- Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally considerable impacts, are expected across the Florida Big Bend, central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina later tonight into Thursday.
As of 17:00 EDT (21:00 UTC) on August 29, 2023, the center of Hurricane “Idalia” was located approximately 310 km (195 miles) southwest of Tampa and about 480 km (300 miles) south of Tallahassee, Florida. The hurricane had maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h (100 mph) and was moving northward at a speed of 26 km/h (16 mph). The storm’s minimum central pressure has been recorded at 972 hPa.Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 km (25 miles) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 260 km (160 miles).A northward to north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight, with Idalia’s center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida on Wednesday morning (LT), August 30. After landfall, the center of Idalia is forecast to turn toward the northeast and east, moving near or along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late Wednesday and Thursday.Additional strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a major hurricane tonight before it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to still be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly when it reaches the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina.The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Aucilla River, FL to Yankeetown, FL: 3.05 – 4.57 m (10 – 15 feet)
- Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL: 2.13 – 3.35 m (7 – 11 feet)
- Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL: 2.13 – 3.35 m (7 – 11 feet)
- Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL: 1.83 – 2.74 m (6 – 9 feet)
Hurricane Idalia strengthens en route to Florida, expected to land as Category 4 storm (Reuters) - Hurricane Idalia gained fury on Tuesday as it crawled toward Florida's Gulf Coast, forcing mass evacuations in low-lying areas expected to be swamped when the powerful storm, forecast to reach Category 4 intensity, strikes on Wednesday morning. Idalia was generating maximum sustained winds of 110 miles per hour (177 kph) by late Tuesday night - at the upper end of Category 2 - and its force will ratchet higher before it slams ashore, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) projected. By that time the storm was forecast to reach "an extremely dangerous Category 4 intensity" - with maximum sustained winds of at least 130 mph (209 kph) - on the five-step Saffir-Simpson wind scale, the NHC reported. The hurricane was upgraded on Tuesday evening to a Category 2 after its top wind speeds surpassed 95 mph (153 kph), feeding on the warm, open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Any storm designated Category 3 or higher is classified as a major hurricane. Idalia's most dangerous feature, however, appeared to be the powerful surge of wind-driven seawater it is expected to deliver to barrier islands and other low-lying areas along the coast. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is seeking the Republican presidential nomination next year, urged residents in vulnerable communities to heed orders to move to higher ground, warning that the storm surge could cause life-threatening floods. The NHC said Idalia's center would likely hit Florida's coastline somewhere in the Big Bend region, where the state's northern panhandle curves into the Gulf side of the Florida Peninsula, roughly bounded by the inland cities of Gainesville and Tallahassee, the state capital. Sparsely populated compared with the Tampa-St. Petersburg area to the south, the Big Bend features a marshy coast, threaded with freshwater springs and rivers, and a cluster of small offshore islands forming Cedar Key, a historic fishing village devastated in 1896 by a hurricane's storm surge. Most of Florida's 21 million residents, along with many in Georgia and South Carolina, were under hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge warnings and advisories. State emergency declarations were issued in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. Florida Governor Ron DeSantisurged residents in vulnerable communities to heed orders to move to higher ground, warning that the storm surge could cause life-threatening floods. U.S. President Biden said he had assured the governor federal disaster assistance would remain in place for as "long as it takes, and we’ll make sure they have everything they need.” Gulf energy producers were taking precautions as well. U.S. oil company Chevron evacuated staff from three oil production platforms, while Kinder Morgan planned to shut a petroleum pipeline. Idalia-related disruptions extended to Florida's Atlantic coast at Cape Canaveral, where the Tuesday launch of a rocket carrying a U.S. Space Force intelligence satellite was delayed indefinitely due to the hurricane. Idalia grew from a tropical storm into a hurricane early on Tuesday, a day after passing west of Cuba, where it damaged homes and flooded villages.
Idalia makes landfall as a Category 3 hurricane : NPR - The National Hurricane Center says the eye of Hurricane Idalia has come ashore near Keaton Beach, Fla. Idalia has sustained winds of 125 mph — which is a powerful Category 3 "major hurricane." The storm, which had been a Category 4 early Wednesday morning, weakened slightly just before landfall. Hurricane historian Phil Klotzbach says Idalia is tied with the Cedar Key Hurricane of 1896 as the strongest storms to ever hit that area. Overnight, forecasters increased the storm surge potential to as high as 16 feet from the Wakulla/Jefferson County line to Yankeetown, Fla. The NHC also issued a hurricane warning for the southeast coast of the United States from the Altamaha Sound in Georgia to Edisto Beach in South Carolina. Overnight, swells from Idalia had roiled the Gulf of Mexico. A buoy (#42099) near the storm reported a wave height of nearly 34 feet. Idalia's wind speeds experienced "rapid intensification" since Tuesday morning, a classification that the NHC defines as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period. Such a rapid increase in wind speed used to be a rarity, but is happening more frequently, in part, because of climate change. Idalia was sending heavy rain bands up the South Florida coast as the storm moved through the hot, jacuzzi-like temperatures of the Gulf of Mexico. That warm water helped fuel a rapid intensification of Idalia. As the storm neared Florida, local officials in the state warned residents to remain vigilant. In Tampa, for instance, city leaders warned the worst of what could be a 4-to-6-foot storm surge could happen on Wednesday – well after the storm has passed.
Hurricane Idalia hits Florida with 125 mph winds, flooding streets, snapping trees and cutting power (AP) — Hurricane Idalia tore into Florida at the speed of a fast-moving train Wednesday, splitting trees in half, ripping roofs off hotels and turning small cars into boats before sweeping into Georgia and South Carolina as a still-powerful storm that flooded roadways and sent residents running for higher ground. Belond Thomas of Perry fled with her family and some friends to a motel, thinking it would be safer than riding out the storm at home. But as Idalia’s eye passed over about 8:30 a.m., a loud whistling noise pierced the air and the high winds ripped the building’s roof off, sending debris down on her pregnant daughter, who was lying in bed. “It was frightening,” Thomas said. “Things were just going so fast. ... Everything was spinning.” After coming ashore, Idalia made landfall near Keaton Beach at 7:45 a.m. as a high-end Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 125 mph (205 kph). The system remained a hurricane as it crossed into Georgia with top winds of 90 mph (150 kph). It weakened to a tropical storm by late Wednesday afternoon, and its winds had dropped to 60 mph (96 kph) by Wednesday night. As the eye moved inland, high winds shredded signs, blew off roofs, sent sheet metal flying and snapped tall trees. One person was killed in Georgia. No hurricane-related deaths were officially confirmed in Florida, but the Florida Highway Patrol reported two people dying in separate weather-related crashes just hours before Idalia made landfall. The storm brought strong winds to Savannah, Georgia, Wednesday evening as it made its way toward the Carolinas. It was forecast to move near or along the coast of South Carolina through Wednesday night and then just off the coast of North Carolina on Thursday before heading out into the Atlantic Ocean. Idalia spawned a tornado that briefly touched down in the Charleston, South Carolina, suburb of Goose Creek, the National Weather Service said. The winds sent a car flying and flipped it over, according to authorities and eyewitness video. Two people received minor injuries. Along South Carolina’s coast, North Myrtle Beach, Garden City, and Edisto Island all reported ocean water flowing over sand dunes and spilling onto beachfront streets Wednesday evening. In Charleston, storm surge from Idalia topped the seawall that protects the downtown, sending ankle-deep ocean water into the streets and neighborhoods where horse-drawn carriages pass million-dollar homes and the famous open-air market. Preliminary data showed the Wednesday evening high tide reached just over 9.2 feet (2.8 meters), more than 3 feet (0.9 meters) above normal and the fifth-highest reading in Charleston Harbor since records were first kept in 1899.
Florida hurricane: Idalia causes record-breaking storm surge and disastrous flooding. Now Georgia and Carolinas are at risk | CNN— As Hurricane Idalia continues its violent trek across the Southeast – ripping off roofs and engulfing Florida cities in floodwater – more states are getting hammered by the mammoth storm. Several major bridges connecting Florida islands to the mainland are inaccessible, and Idalia’s destructive rampage now threatens coastal Georgia and South Carolina with intense flooding, powerful winds and tornadoes. Idalia is now lashing a 250-mile swath of the Southeast. And while the sky might be clearing in parts of storm-ravaged Florida, the danger is not yet over. Hurricane Idalia made landfall in Florida at approximately 7:45 a.m. EDT on Wednesday. “While the hurricane made landfall several hours ago … its affects are going to play out for a long time to come,” Citrus County Sheriff Mike Prendergast told CNN midday Wednesday. “Where I’m standing right now could potentially be under 6 feet of water by the time we get the high tide” late Wednesday afternoon, he said. As of 2 p.m. ET, Idalia was whipping maximum sustained winds of 75 mph – with even more ferocious gusts. It was centered about 10 miles north-northwest of Waycross, Georgia, a city in the southeastern part of the state. Flash flooding and river flooding is likely across Georgia and the Carolinas through Thursday, the National Hurricane Center warned. But officials in western Florida are warning residents to not get a false sense of security as the hurricane slowly pulls away from them. That’s because a massive “king tide” could make the already dangerous flooding even deadlier.
Hurricane Idalia: Watch videos of storm surge, damage in Florida | Miami Herald -- Hurricane Idalia caused heavy damage to Florida's Gulf Coast early Wednesday as the storm brought strong winds, rain and dangerous flooding to the streets from Tampa to Tallahassee. Around 4:50 p.m. local time, Idalia was downgraded to a tropical storm, according to the National Hurricane Center, while the risk of freshwater flooding, storm surge and wind remains as it crosses portions of Georgia and the Carolinas.Two people, a 59-year-old Gainsville man and a 40-year-old Spring Hill man, were killed Wednesday when they lost control of their vehicles while out driving during the storm, the Florida Highway Patrol said in a news release. When the storm made landfall, at around 7:45 a.m. ET, it was a Category 3 hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center, packing "catastrophic storm surge and damaging winds." Around 10 a.m. local time, it weakened to a Category 2 storm before further weakening to a Category 1 hurricane around noon. In a 12:30 p.m. press conference, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said the eye of the storm had left Florida, but storm surge was expected to continue and worsen as the tide rose later in the day.More than 254,000 customers were without power in north Florida as of 5:30 p.m., according to the tracking sitePowerOutage.us. Restoration efforts are ongoing, DeSantis said. About 262,000 people who lost power have already had power restored as of 12:30 p.m., he said.In Cedar Key, an island city of just about 700 people, storm surge poured through the streets. The area was under a mandatory evacuation order. The city's fire department shared a video that showed water rushing through dark streets as more rain poured down. The department said that things were "going downhill fast" and noted that the power is out in the area. In a second video, the department said the tide is expected to keep coming in until noon, and said that "most of the streets around the downtown are underwater." The strength of the storm is keeping first responders from seeing "how bad things are." A later videoshowed downed trees and rushing water, and photos show further destruction. Two videos posted by a man in Cedar Key showed water coming down side streets at around 5 a.m. local time. "It's going to swallow up the whole town," Later photos and videos from Bobbitt showed scattered debris, downed tree branches and water continuing to travel down side streets. Bobbitt said in the caption that the water had reached his backyard."Our entire downtown is submerged," he wrote. "Houses everywhere are submerged."
Hurricane Idalia: DeSantis warns pillagers: 'You loot, we shoot' - Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Wednesday afternoon reissued a pointed warning to pillagers reportedly making rounds in areas devastated by Hurricane Idalia: “you loot, we shoot.”“People have a right to defend their property — this part of Florida, you got a lot of advocates and proponents of the Second Amendment,” DeSantis said during an afternoon press conference.“You never know what’s behind that door if you go break into somebody’s house and you’re trying to loot, these are people that are going to be able to defend themselves and their families,” the governor added. “We are going to hold you accountable from a law enforcement perspective at a minimum, and it could even be worse than that depending on what’s behind that door.”When responding to the deadly Hurricane Ian, which hit Florida in September 2022 and left more than 140 people dead, the governor remarked that he had seen a sign that displayed the “you loot, we shoot” line, raising it as a message of law-and-order during a period of storm-driven chaos. He also made the comments days after a racially-motivated mass shooting in Jacksonville left three Black residents dead.DeSantis, who has temporarily paused his presidential campaign to steer Florida’s response to Idalia, has hosted several press conferences throughout the day to update the public on the storm’s progress. While he’s not officially on the campaign trail, manning the storm’s response poses a major test for his candidacy, as it thrusts his leadership and decision-making as his state’s chief executive under the public spotlight. The storm has knocked out powerfor hundreds of thousands of people and will likely cost the state millions in damages.
Idalia buffets South Carolina as it continues to weaken: live updates -- Tropical Storm Idalia moved across the South after making landfall Wednesday morning as an “extremely dangerous” Category 3 hurricane in Florida’s Big Bend region, the first hurricane in recorded history to hit the area.As of 8 p.m., the storm’s winds had decreased to roughly 65 mph and it was located in South Carolina, about 60 miles west of Charleston, according to the National Hurricane Center. Idalia hit land at 7:45 a.m. with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph at Keaton Beach.The storm is expected to continue moving in the same general direction along the state's coast overnight before beginning to shift eastward offshore the coast of North Carolina on Thursday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast as of 8 p.m.Coastal areas of Georgia and South Carolina are under tropical storm warnings Wednesday night, and the conditions are expected to spread over parts of the North Carolina coast through Thursday, according to the NHC. Georgia and the Carolinas remain at threat for flooding.Over 34,000 South Carolinians are without power as of Wednesday night as Tropical Storm Idalia moves through the state, according to outage tracking website PowerOutage.us.No county in the state is reporting a percentage of outages that would qualify as major, per the website. Less than ten percent of customers in most counties are without power, with some areas in the southern part of the state — where the storm was hitting as of Wednesday evening — experiencing more widespread outages.Tropical storm and storm surge warnings have been canceled along the Gulf Coast of Florida.Some areas have gotten as much as 10 inches of rain and a 15-foot storm surge, according to Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell.
EPA Addresses Florida Fuel Supply Emergency Caused by Idalia - In a release posted on its website on Wednesday, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that EPA Administrator Michael Regan issued an emergency fuel waiver “to address a fuel supply emergency in Florida caused by Hurricane Idalia”. The release highlighted that storm preparations resulted in the closure of multiple ports in the state that receive fuel and restricted and interrupted fuel terminal operations, “preventing an adequate supply of gasoline”. In addition, evacuations, including mandatory evacuations, are straining available supplies, the release noted. Waiving federal requirements to sell summer gasoline can help address these supply shortages, according to the release. “The EPA and the Department of Energy (DOE) have been actively monitoring the supply of fuel,” the EPA said in the release. “The EPA has concluded, with DOE’s concurrence, that it is necessary to waive federal requirements to sell summer gasoline to minimize or prevent the disruption of an adequate supply of gasoline to consumers throughout Florida,” it added. “This waiver only applies to the federal fuel standards. Regulated parties must continue to comply with any applicable state or local requirements, or restrictions related to this matter, unless waived by the appropriate authorities,” it continued. The waiver is effective August 30, 2023, and will continue through September 15, 2023, the release revealed.
2 powerful storms impacting rip currents at the Jersey Shore this Labor Day weekend - -- Large crowds and warm weather are in the forecast for Labor Day weekend across the Philadelphia region. Many are preparing to head to the Shore and beach patrols are warning swimmers to beware of rough surf and rip currents. In Atlantic City, several rescues have already been made by lifeguards. On Thursday, swimmers were only allowed in the water up to their knees because of the rip currents and the beach patrol is closely watching the conditions knowing thousands of people are heading to A.C. for Labor Day weekend. The restrictions will likely stay into at least part of the holiday. The National Ocean Service says the best way to escape a rip current is to swim parallel to the shore instead of toward it - rather than tiring yourself out swimming against the current. For the past three days, two powerful storms down south have been churning up the Atlantic Ocean, creating rough and potentially dangerous surf down the Shore. The Atlantic City beach patrol has been on high alert all week and lifeguards made several rescues with some swimmers getting caught in the current, and others just blatantly ignored warnings. "A gentleman that we told numerous times not to go back in the water went in and immediately started drowning," Chief Steve Downey said. As Hurricane Franklin and Tropical Storm Idalia continue to cause large waves. Even though there are currently restrictions on swimming, most beachgoers are taking it in stride.
FEMA forced to restrict disaster spending because of low funds - The Biden administration has stopped helping states rebuild from past disasters with money from the federal government’s main emergency fund, which is nearing depletion from dozens of storms and wildfires this year. The restrictions will put pressure on Congress to approve President Joe Biden’s Aug. 10 request for $12 billion in emergency money to replenish the disaster fund. Speaking to reporters at the White House on Wednesday afternoon, Biden stopped short of vowing that the federal government would provide sufficient disaster aid during the current hurricane season. “If I can’t do that, I’m going to point out why,” Biden said, without explicitly saying he would blame lawmakers for stalling or rejecting his $12 billion request. “How can we not respond? My God.” Under new spending restrictions, the federal disaster fund can be spent only to address life-threatening emergencies such as Hurricane Idalia, which swept into the northern Florida Gulf Coast early Wednesday. Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell said at the White House on Tuesday that FEMA is using its remaining disaster funds only “for critical response efforts to Idalia, the Maui fires and any other extreme weather events.” FEMA said in an internal memo obtained by POLITICO’s E&E News that its disaster fund is “approaching exhaustion” and that restrictions are needed due to “the current disaster environment with a major fire and multiple hurricanes.” The agency imposed the spending restriction Tuesday with little notice. The change does not affect FEMA aid to individuals or payments from the agency’s flood-insurance program.
Hong Kong to Shut Down City Before Super Typhoon Saola Hits -- Hong Kong is making preparations for a possible direct hit by Super Typhoon Saola, which is shaping up to be the strongest storm to affect the city in at least five years. The city will raise its No. 8 storm between 2 a.m. to 5 a.m. on Friday — effectively closing down the city including its $5 trillion stock market — and schools will be shut, Chief Secretary Chan Kwok-ki said at a press briefing Friday afternoon. “The storm poses a serious threat to Hong Kong,” Chan said, flanked by heads of various government departments. “The public should not take this lightly.” Saola has the potential to be the most powerful typhoon to hit Hong Kong since Mangkhut battered the city in 2018, which left roads blocked, buildings damaged and low-lying areas flooded. Saola earlier skirted past the Philippines and Taiwan. The latest forecast track has the eye of the typhoon passing over the southern part of the city either late Friday or early Saturday. The typhoon was about 380 km (236 miles) east-southeast of Hong Kong at 4:00 p.m. local time and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 10 km per hour. The storm is currently packing winds of 205 km an hour, according to its website. Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. expects to suspend flights starting Friday afternoon through Saturday morning because of the typhoon, according to a person familiar with the situation. The airline expects significant disruptions at Hong Kong International Airport and is working to keep aircraft out of the city for a period of time, according to information seen by Bloomberg. Hong Kong is typically affected by about six typhoons annually, usually from June to October, but only a fraction of those result in market or school closures. The last time was in July because of typhoon Talim. A direct hit is rare. There have only been 16 maximum-level storms in Hong Kong since records began in 1946, including Hato in 2017 and Mangkhut the following year. Both of those were at least 60 km away from the finance hub at their closest, according to observatory data.
After America’s summer of extreme weather, ‘next year may well be worse’ - From the dystopian orange skies above New York to the deadly immolation of a historic coastal town in Hawaii, the waning summer has been a stark demonstration of the escalating climate crisis – with experts warning that worse is to come. A relentless barrage of extreme weather events, fueled by human-caused global heating, has swept the North American continent this summer, routinely placing a third of the US population under warnings of severe heat and unleashing floods, fire and smoke upon communities, with a record 15 separate disasters causing at least $1bn in damages so far this year. The heat has been particularly withering in places like Phoenix, Arizona, which had a record 31 consecutive days at temperatures above 110F (43C), while anenormous heatwave across the central swath of the US this week caused schools to be closed in states such as Wisconsin, Colorado and Iowa and food banks to be shut in Nebraska. In Miami, which had a record 46 days in a row with a heat index above 100F (37C), there was no respite even in the nearby ocean, with a raging marineheatwave turning the seawater to a temperature more normally seen in hot tubs, raising fears that Florida’s coral reef will be turned to mush.“It’s been a shocking summer,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA. “We know most of this is happening because of long-term warming of the climate system so it’s not surprising, sadly, but you still get shocked by these extremes. Records are not just being broken, they are being shattered by wide margins.”The record temperatures are being driven not only by global heating caused by the burning of fossil fuels but also by the onset of El Niño, a periodic climate event that heats up part of the Pacific Ocean, causing temperatures to spike around the world.“We have seen an unusual summer and these ‘unusual’ summers will become more and more frequent in the future,” said Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at the Nature Conservancy. Hayhoe said high temperatures, El Niño and natural variability have all combined to create the sort of conditions not seen before by humans. “It’s like an overloaded camel with an extra bale of hay and then some additional weight on top,” she said.But while extreme conditions could be expected, the events of this summer have still at times seemed otherworldly. In June, smoke from record wildfires in Canada – an area the size of Greece has so far burned in its vast forests – billowed south, smothering New York and Washington DC in an ochre haze that brought with it the worst air quality in the world. Visibility shrank, asthmatics wheezed and people reached for masks not worn since the height of the Covid pandemic.
It’s Getting Harder for Fish in the Sea to Breathe - Off the coast of southeastern China, one particular fish species is booming: the oddly named Bombay duck, a long, slim fish with a distinctive, gaping jaw and a texture like jelly. When research ships trawl the seafloor off that coast, they now catch upwards of 440 pounds of the gelatinous fish per hour — a more than tenfold increase over a decade ago. “It’s monstrous,” says University of British Columbia fisheries researcher Daniel Pauly of the explosion in numbers. The reason for this mass invasion, says Pauly, is extremely low oxygen levels in these polluted waters. Fish species that can’t cope with less oxygen have fled, while the Bombay duck, part of a small subset of species that is physiologically better able to deal with less oxygen, has moved in. The boom is making some people happy, since Bombay duck is perfectly edible. But the influx provides a peek at a bleak future for China and for the planet as a whole. As the atmosphere warms, oceans around the world are becoming ever more deprived of oxygen, forcing many species to migrate from their usual homes. Researchers expect many places to experience a decline in species diversity, ending up with just those few species that can cope with the harsher conditions. Lack of ecosystem diversity means lack of resilience. “Deoxygenation is a big problem,” Pauly summarizes. Our future ocean — warmer and oxygen-deprived — will not only hold fewer kinds of fish, but also smaller, stunted fish and, to add insult to injury, more greenhouse-gas producing bacteria, scientists say. The tropics will empty as fish move to more oxygenated waters, says Pauly, and those specialist fish already living at the poles will face extinction.
Climate change: Parts of tropical rainforests could get too hot for photosynthesis, study suggests | CNN— Some leaves in tropical forests from South America to South East Asia are getting so hot they may no longer be able to photosynthesize, with big potential consequences for the world’s forests, according to a new study. Leaves’ ability to photosynthesize – the process by which they make energy from carbon dioxide, sunlight and water – begins to fail when their temperature reaches around 46.7 degrees Celsius (116 Fahrenheit). While this may seem high, leaves can get much hotter than the air temperature, according to the report published Wednesday in Nature by a group of scientists from countries including the US, Australia and Brazil. The scientists used temperature data beamed down from thermal satellite sensors on the International Space Station, 400 kilometers (nearly 250 miles) above the Earth. They combined this with on-the-ground observations from leaf-warming experiments, in which scientists climbed into the canopy to painstakingly add sensors to leaves. Rather than looking at average temperatures, the scientists were looking at extremes, said Christopher Doughty, associate professor in ecoinformatics at Northern Arizona University and a report author. They found that average forest canopy temperatures peaked at 34 degrees Celsius (93 Fahrenheit) but some exceeded 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit). Currently, 0.01% of leaves are passing the critical temperature threshold beyond which their ability to photosynthesize breaks down, the report found, potentially killing the leaf and the tree. This percentage, while small, is poised to increase as the world warms, the report said, posing a threat to the world’s tropical forests – which cover roughly 12% of the planet and hold more than half of the world’s species. They also provide a vital role in sucking up and storing carbon and helping to regulate the global climate. “There are all sorts of potential feedbacks once you start losing bits of forests, even leaves on individual trees,” Doughty said on a call with reporters.Tropical forests can withstand around 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 Fahrenheit) of additional global warming before they reach a tipping point in terms of their ability to photosynthesize, according to the report. If warming exceeds this level, the amount of leaves surpassing critical temperature thresholds could rise to 1.4%, potentially causing large-scale leaf loss and the death of the whole tree, the report found.
Not a single emperor penguin chick survived spring in parts of Antarctica -As the world goes through what some scientists believe to be its hottest year on record, emperor penguin populations in the Antarctic are suffering catastrophic losses, with no chicks surviving the spring of 2022 in four of five colonies observed for a new study. The loss of the chicks coincides with record low sea ice coverage and was predicted as the world warmed, but the collapse in numbers has happened faster and sooner than expected, prompting fears for the future of the animal. “Emperor penguins have no external threats except climate change and sea ice,” said the study’s lead author, Peter Fretwell, a scientist with the British Antarctic Survey. “They have never been hunted, hardly any contact with humanity. It is purely climate change. You can’t put the ice back. This is a global problem. If we don’t do something we are driving them to the brink of extinction.” The report, published in Communications Earth and Environment on Friday, examined satellite images in the Bellingshausen Sea in Antarctica between 2018 and 2022 and found that declining sea ice due to climate change resulted in breeding failure last year. Emperor penguin colonies rely on sea ice between April and January to breed, but any change to their habitat impacts whether chicks develop waterproof feathers, and ultimately survive. Fretwell said this was the first regional breeding failure of emperor penguins in the past 13 years. He and his team surveyed colonies at Rothschild Island, Verdi Inlet, Smyley Island, Bryan Coast, and Pfrogner Point, where penguin populations ranged from 630 to 3,500. He said that more broadly, about 30 per cent of emperor penguin colonies across the Antarctic coastline had been impacted by the low sea ice. He added chick births this year could be even worse than in previous years given the record low sea ice driven by record warm ocean temperatures. “This is the start of what is going to happen to emperor penguins as we get higher temperatures and lower sea ice,” Fretwell said. “It looks like it will continue to get worse over the coming decades. Our models suggested this would happen over time. But [the results] were sharper and more sudden than previously thought.”
Vanguard joins BlackRock, cuts support for shareholder items on climate, social issues (Reuters) - Vanguard supported just 2% of shareholder resolutions on environmental and social issues at U.S. companies this year, down from 12% last year, the top mutual fund manager said on Monday, fueling a drop in investor backing overall. Vanguard said the declining support rate reflected a rising number of proposals - 359 this year, up from 290 a year ago, coupled with improvements in company disclosure that it said made many resolutions unnecessary. With $8.2 trillion under management, Pennsylvania-based Vanguard has become a leader in deciding whether companies should take steps like curbing greenhouse gas emissions or reviewing their workforce diversity. Support for shareholder resolutions calling for such steps has declined at U.S. companies this year, with top asset manager BlackRock saying it backed the mostly-advisory measures just 7% of the time, down from 22% last year. Vanguard's drop in support was even steeper. Like BlackRock, Vanguard noted new securities regulations that make it harder for companies to leave questions off their ballots. In a note on its website, Vanguard also said many resolutions sought changes that might not be needed. "In some cases, we identified that although a proposal raised a material risk at the company in question, the board had already demonstrated appropriate oversight of the risk and evidenced its oversight through robust disclosure or had practices in place that substantially fulfilled the proposal’s request," Vanguard said. Vanguard and BlackRock have been under fire from conservative U.S. politicians who say they have over-emphasized sustainability issues, and from liberal activists who say the firms do too little to address global problems. Like BlackRock, Vanguard did not address how the criticism may have shaped votes this year but said its approach to evaluating shareholder proposals "has been consistent over time."
A developer chose a rural carbon sequestration site to avoid controversy. It didn’t go well. -The company seeking to build one of the nation’s largest carbon sequestration projects in Indiana was trying to avoid a “PR disaster” by locating in a rural farming area, a company executive said at a community meeting recently. But that decision has not preempted controversy over both the project itself and the company’s larger strategy. Local opposition is quickly snowballing in the small towns around Terre Haute as the EPA considers whether to approve injection well permits crucial for a federal loan guarantee. Wabash Valley Resources says it wants to build a fertilizer plant that will bring jobs to rural Indiana. It aims to use petroleum coke or other feedstocks to create hydrogen and then anhydrous ammonia while sequestering carbon dioxide emissions 4,500 feet below ground in Vigo and Vermilion counties, about 12 miles from the plant. Residents feel the company and the federal government are making them “guinea pigs,” as several said, in a project aimed at taking advantage of lucrative federal grants and tax incentives. The company has been seeking to capture and sequester carbon since 2016, when it bought the former Duke Energy coal gasification plant that it plans to retrofit. The EPA on July 7 issued a draft permit for the two Class VI carbon injection wells. Residents said they were given only days notice by mail about the lone EPA public meeting on the issue, which was held August 10. Many local farmers had never heard about the concept, and were outraged that the company did little outreach and the government gave them little notice about their chance to weigh in. A 35-day public comment period on the draft permit — shorter than typical 60-day periods — was scheduled to close Aug. 11. The deadline was extended to Aug. 21 at advocates’ behest. “We understand that once landowners learned it was going in their backyard, there was a short ramp to learn about carbon storage,” Wabash Valley spokesperson Greg Zoeller said. “Admittedly, we could have done better initial outreach to the landowners. We hoped the EPA information session would ease most of their concerns.” Since that was clearly not the case, the company held its own meeting Aug. 16 in the small town of Universal, where residents pelted the officials with questions and accusations. Wabash Valley Vice President of Operations Rory Chambers was asked why the carbon couldn’t be sequestered at the gasification plant site.He responded that injecting carbon there — under a river and closer to Terre Haute —would be a “PR disaster.”“Admittedly a little self-servedly I said, ‘Well if I put it in my plant site, this plume will clip the north side of Terre Haute and I end up with 3,000 angry people,” Chambers said.By sequestering the carbon around Universal, “If there are a few mad people, here I can talk to individuals…and calm them down,” Chambers said.
US Treasury unveils wage, apprenticeship guidance for clean energy tax credits (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday released detailed guidance on wage and apprenticeship requirements for projects using clean energy tax credits, providing flexibility for fixing underpayment errors and for projects unable to hire apprentices. The proposed new Internal Revenue Service rules for construction of clean energy production and manufacturing facilities build on initial guidance last year in the Inflation Reduction Act, which has enabled the announcement of more than $110 billion worth of clean energy manufacturing investments. By paying the prevailing wage based on Labor Department rules and ensuring the use of qualified apprentices, companies can earn five times the baseline value of tax credits for IRA-qualified projects. "The notice of proposed rulemaking (that) Treasury's releasing today provides employers and workers with more clarity on the IRS's guardrails, incentivizing employers to adopt worker centered practices and ensures compliance is streamlined," U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo told reporters. Among key new details released are provisions to waive penalties for companies that pay less than an area's prevailing wage if they correct the error within 30 days of becoming aware it, or before they apply for the tax credit. The company must pay back wages, plus interest. For qualifying facilities being built with project labor agreements, which often involve strong union job protections, developers can correct wage errors without penalty if they do so before applying for tax credits. Treasury officials said this would most likely encourage the use of more project labor agreements on IRA job sites. Another key provision announced on Tuesday is a "good faith" exception from using registered apprenticeship programs if there is none available in the project's location. The act requires 12.5% of project labor hours to be performed by qualified apprentices for construction beginning in 2023 and 15% for those starting in 2024 or thereafter - provisions aimed at incentivizing the training of more skilled construction workers.Clean energy executives have raised concerns about the potential for labor shortages and a lack of apprenticeship programs in some areas.Under the new guidance, project owners can still qualify for the full tax credit value if they demonstrate a "good faith effort" to meet the requirements, including making written requests to qualified programs.The Treasury and IRS will collect written public comments on the proposed rules until Oct. 30, with a public hearing scheduled for Nov. 21.
DOE offers $300M to boost transmission siting and permitting, support affected communities --The U.S. Department of Energy is offering up to $300 million for states, tribes and local governments to bolster transmission siting and permitting processes while supporting economic development.Through the Transmission Siting and Economic Development grant program, the DOE’s Grid Deployment Office expects to offer $100 million for permitting and siting and $200 million for economic development in communities affected by transmission line projects, according to a funding opportunity announcement issued Tuesday.The program aims to support standardizing and streamlining transmission siting and permitting processes, coordination across jurisdictions and robust public engagement, the Grid Deployment Office said.Applicants applying for support for siting and permitting can propose activities such as studies and analyses of the effects of a transmission project, the study of up to three possible corridors for a project and increased staffing and hiring of consultants, according to the office.DOE expects to make up to 40 awards ranging from $100,000 to $10 million for siting and permitting initiatives. The awards require an up to 50% cost share.On the economic development side, the office said funding could support local energy democratization and resilience projects, including microgrids, distributed generation, energy storage, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure. It could also be used for affordable and sustainable housing, among other things.The department anticipates making up to 40 awards ranging from $100,000 to $50 million for economic development projects. Applicants face a 5% cost share for any awards.
Federal funds can help Ohio co-ops cut costs and emissions - A share of $9.7 billion in funding under the Inflation Reduction Act can help Ohio’s rural electric cooperatives save money while cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Buckeye Power, which provides generation and transmission services for the group’s 25 rural electric cooperative members, “has more exposure to coal” than any comparable group in the United States, said Neil Waggoner, federal deputy director for energy campaigns for the Sierra Club, so the IRA funding is an especially huge opportunity. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s New Empowering Rural America program is accepting notices of intent to apply for up to $970 million in funding for projects to cut greenhouse gas emissions and add renewable energy. Funding can include grants of up to 25% of project costs, as well as low- or no-interest loans. The notices are due by Sept. 15. Full applications would follow later in the fall. “We are aware of and actively working on a proposal for the USDA New ERA program but do not have anything to report publicly until the application is complete,” said Caryn Whitney, director of communications for Ohio’s Electric Cooperatives, referring to both the cooperative organization and Buckeye Power. The New ERA program is part of the IRA. Environmental groups’ analyses suggest the member cooperatives’ 380,000 residential and business customers could see big savings if Buckeye Power replaces some or all of its coal-fired generation with renewables and storage. Most of Buckeye Power’s current generation mix comes from the 1.8-gigawatt coal-fired Cardinal Power Plant in Brilliant, Ohio. Units 1 and 2 at the Cardinal plant are 56 years old, and Unit 3 is 46 years old. Buckeye Power also has an 18% share in the Ohio Valley Electric Corporation, which owns the two 1950s-era coal plants involved in the state’s ongoing House Bill 6 corruption scandal. The marginal costs to run almost all existing coal plants in the United States already exceed the levelized all-in costs of new solar or wind generation, Energy Innovation Policy & Technology reported earlier this year. Also, a report released in August by the Evergreen Collaborative estimated the Cardinal Plant’s costs going forward will be roughly $31.16 per megawatt-hour. Regional wind generation is 18.6% less costly than coal, and local solar is about 11% cheaper, the report said.
SouthCoast Wind agrees to pay $60m to terminate power purchase agreements - THE DEVELOPER of SouthCoast Wind on Tuesday agreed to pay more than $60 million to the state’s three leading utilities to terminate power purchase agreements the company negotiated last year to build its wind farm south of Martha’s Vineyard. The SouthCoast proposal, if it is approved by the Department of Public Utilities, would be the second wind farm to terminate its contract with the utilities. Avangrid, the developer of Commonwealth Wind, successfully terminated its contract earlier this month by pledging a $48 million termination payment. Both offshore wind farm developers say the original terms of the contracts are no longer viable because of inflation, rising interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and the war in Ukraine. ‘Seller has requested that the agreement and the voluntary commitment agreement be terminated because the facility is no longer economically financeable,” the SouthCoast Wind termination proposal states. The overall agreement sets out three payments to each utility that, combined, total $60,420,000. Eversource receives a total of $32,452,570, National Grid receives $27,376,430, and Unitil $591,000. The utilities are required to rebate the money to customers on their bills. The numbers are the same ones that have been bandied about by people in the know for months. SouthCoast Wind is paying more than Commonwealth Wind because it is terminating three contracts covering two procurements, while Commonwealth was dealing with only one procurement. The payments are based on the security deposits required under the agreements. SouthCoast Wind is being developed by Shell New Energies and Ocean Winds North America. Both Commonwealth Wind and SouthCoast Wind are hoping to rebid their projects in a Massachusetts offshore wind procurement scheduled for next year. The arrangement has stirred some controversy about whether it is fair for a project far along in the approval process to be allowed to terminate its project and then bid against companies that are just launching their initiatives.
First US offshore wind auction in Gulf of Mexico attracts paltry interest (Reuters) - The Biden administration's first ever auction of offshore wind development rights in the Gulf of Mexico ended with a single $5.6 million winning bid on Tuesday, reflecting meager demand for the clean energy source in a region known for oil and gas production. Germany's RWE won rights to 102,480 acres (41,472 hectares) off Louisiana - the lowest winning bid for a federal offshore wind lease at auction since the Obama administration - while the other two lease areas on offer off Texas received no bids, according to results posted online by the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. The auction was by far the weakest of the four held since President Joe Biden took office in 2021 pledging to accelerate the industry as part of his climate change agenda. Biden's administration wants to deploy 30 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind by 2030, and the Interior Department said the three offered Gulf leases combined had the potential to account for more than 10% of that amount. "It is striking just how bad the economics clearly must be in order for two of the three sites to remain unsold ... and for the site that was sold to go for such a low price," said Alon Carmel, a partner at PA Consulting who advises offshore wind companies. A spokesperson for RWE said the sale was "a great opportunity to enter the Gulf's offshore wind industry at the ground floor" and noted that the first lease sales in the Atlantic had similar participation and prices. RWE is among the world's largest offshore wind developers, with an extensive portfolio in Europe, and has also secured leases off the coasts of California and New York. French energy giant TotalEnergies, which is developing offshore wind projects in other U.S. regions, is one of the companies that elected to sit out the sale, despite having qualified to bid. "Our assessment factoring in wind speeds, competition from other onshore renewables, and competitive power market conditions does not, at this time, justify submitting an offer," a spokesperson said in a statement.
Feds get no bids to build offshore wind farms near the Texas coast - The federal government for the first time on Tuesday opened two areas in the Gulf of Mexico off the Texas coast to build wind farms. Groups representing supply chain businesses hailed the chance for the new offshore leases to create more work. Clean power advocates cheered the opportunity for more renewable energy to be generated.But not a single firm bid on the leases.Companies reached by The Texas Tribune that expressed early interest didn’t explain exactly why they declined to pursue them. Shell and Equinor said they looked forward to considering future opportunities in the Gulf. Mainstream Renewable Power said it was scaling back its U.S. offshore work in favor of projects in Europe and Asia. A ripple of surprise among offshore wind advocates gave way to finger-pointing at Texas’ antagonistic political climate.During this year’s legislative session, Texas lawmakers proposed a bill that would have strictly regulated renewable energy projects. It didn’t pass but it raised concerns that Texas — which is the top state for wind energy nationally — was souring on clean energy. Politicians instead passed a law aimed at incentivizing companies to build more natural gas-fueled power plants.More recently, Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian, whose agency regulates oil and gas in Texas, publicly opposed offshore wind farms, as did Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham, whose agency oversees the state’s coast.The Texas Public Policy Foundation, a powerful conservative think tank, made a casein a blog post against offshore wind near Texas and filed a lawsuit aimed at halting offshore wind development in New England.Two companies did compete for a lease offered Tuesday off the coast of Louisiana, where state leaders have supported offshore wind development by setting a goal for offshore wind energy production, said Jenny Netherton, senior program manager for the advocacy group Southeastern Wind Coalition.The auction results showed how important a state’s choices can be, Netherton said.
Texas hooked up its first virtual power plants to help the grid --The Texas grid is now open for business for small-scale, customer-owned energy devices.Two clusters of Tesla Powerwall customers, in Houston and Dallas, have been cleared to inject power from their battery storage devices onto the Texas grid and earn compensation for their services. It’s a milestone for the mainstreaming of distributed energy in the massive, competitive energy markets managed by ERCOT. Power production in Texas, and most anywhere else, is dominated by large-scale power plants. But an increasing number of households and businesses are installing their own solar and batteries, or generators — in large part to protect themselves from extended periods of high prices and outright failures of the broader grid. Once customers have these devices, they can operate them to help the energy system meet demand; if enough people did that, they could collectively lower grid costs and help avoid power shortfalls.Tesla got there first, by clearing the certification steps last week to enroll customers in the TexasAggregated Distributed Energy Resource Pilot Project. This program came together remarkably quickly as far as wonky grid bureaucracy goes: State utility regulators approved it last October, allowing an initial tranche of 80 megawatts of aggregated, small-scale capacity to bid into the markets. Enrollment began early this year; six more groups are now working through certification to let their customers participate. The rules stipulate that aggregators have to operate as retail energy providers in Texas. Tesla created a Tesla Energy subsidiary to comply. Octopus Energy, a clean-energy-oriented power retailer from the U.K., has been pitching its Texas customers on $40-per-month discounts if they participate. The regulators said that no single company can make up more than 20% of the program, so the first movers won’t be able to gobble up the whole 80-megawatt allotment. Not that the program is going to fill up anytime soon: The eight aggregations working their way to completion only total 7.2 megawatts. That’s a long way from rivaling the capacity of a large-scale fossil fuel plant. It’s also smaller than networks of home batteries serving grid demand in other places, such as Vermont and Hawaii.
ERCOT calls on Texans to conserve energy due to unexpected outages - The state grid operator issued yet another request that Texans conserve energy if safe to do so Tuesday evening.Tuesday’s request, covering the hours from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m., is due to a high level of unexpected outages from natural gas and coal plants and projected low wind generation, according to the notice from the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. There were more than 11,000 megawatts of natural gas and coal plant outages as of noon, down from a peak of more than 12,000 megawatts of outages earlier in the day, according to Grid Status data. One megawatt of electricity can power about 200 Texas homes during peak demand, according to ERCOT. Going into the summer, ERCOT expected “typical” outages of natural gas and coal plants of 5,034 megawatts.
DOE offers $15.5 billion to retool existing auto plants for EVs - The Biden administration on Thursday said it is offering $15.5 billion to help U.S. automakers retool existing plants that make gas-powered vehicles and turn them into factories that deliver electric cars and trucks. The U.S. Department of Energy funding includes $2 billion in Inflation Reduction Act grants to convert domestic manufacturing facilities and expand production of hybrid, battery-powered and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. The DOE is also planning to provide up to $10 billion to support conversion projects through the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program. Separately, $3.5 billion could be made available to expand domestic battery manufacturing via the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.The announcement arrives at a particularly tense period for the U.S. auto industry — fueled in part by workers’ growing concerns that electrifying America’s transportation sector could mean eliminating certain jobs and shifting employment away from traditional manufacturing centers. “While we transition to EVs, we want to ensure that workers can transition in place, that there is no worker, no community left behind,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told reporters on a Thursday call.The DOE unveiled the funds nearly a week after Detroit-based United Auto Workers, the nation’s largest auto union, voted overwhelmingly in favor of authorizing a strike against one or all of the Big Three automakers: General Motors, Ford Motor Co. and Stellantis, the parent company of Jeep and Chrysler. Union members are calling for wage hikes, reinstating cost-of-living adjustments and shifting back to pension plans; they could strike if an agreement isn’t reached by September 14.All three auto giants have cited the transition to EVs in their earlier decisions to cut thousands of jobs, offer buyouts and idle auto plants across the industrial Midwest.
New owner restarts West Virginia coal-fired power plant and intends to convert it to hydrogen use (AP) — A West Virginia coal-fired power plant that had been targeted for deactivation was restarted Wednesday under a new owner that plans to retrofit the facility to use hydrogen to generate electricity, Gov. Jim Justice announced. California-based Omnis Fuel Technologies intends to invest $800 million at the Pleasants Power Station on the Ohio River near Belmont in Pleasants County, Justice said. In July, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission authorized the transfer of the 160-worker plant from Texas-based Energy Transition and Environmental Management. Energy Transition had leased the plant from a previous owner, Ohio-based Energy Harbor. Two FirstEnergy subsidiaries had proposed keeping the plant open past its scheduled May 31 closing date before Omnis Fuel took over. The plant was first scheduled to be shut down in 2018. State lawmakers approved a tax break in 2019 that had kept the facility active. Omnis will require up to 600 workers after its hydrogen facility is built next door, Justice said. One of the byproducts of the facility will be graphite, a key material in lithium-ion battery production. Justice made the announcement during a business meeting at The Greenbrier resort. Pleasants County Commission President Jay Powell spoke to Justice through a live video feed from the power plant showing steam coming out of its cooling towers. “The plant was mothballed. It was scheduled to be taken out of here,” Powell said. “We went on the grid today.”
Bagley Road Natural Gas Line Replacement - City of Middleburg Heights - Beginning at approximately 12:00am on Monday, August 28, 2023, Miller Pipeline will be replacing a failing gas line for Columbia Gas of Ohio.This gas line crosses Bagley Road on the west side of Pearl Road, between Walgreens and the gas station. This is a gas line replacement and resurfacing of Bagley Road, where excavated by the replacement.Due to heavy daytime traffic, Miller Pipeline will be conducting their work from approximately 6:00pm until 6:00am. At this time, Miller Pipeline is estimating their work should be completed by 6:00am on Saturday, September 2, 2023, weather permitting.
PTT Offers Excuses to Belmont County on Why Cracker Project Stalled - Marcellus Drilling News - Two weeks ago, MDN editor Jim Willis offered the opinion that PTT Global Chemical is not going to build an ethane cracker plant in Belmont County (see Facing Reality – PTT Ohio Cracker Plant Project is Dead). He backed up his opinion with observations and facts to support it. On Tuesday, the Belmont County Township Trustees Association heard a report from PTT’s public relations firm, which continues to dangle the carrot that the cracker plant is coming.
Ohio Utica Shale Production 2Q23 – Top Wells, Drillers & Counties -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) released production numbers for the second quarter of 2023 late last week, and nobody noticed…except MDN (thanks to a tip from a good friend). ODNR no longer issues a press release to summarize the results as they once did. We’ve got the full spreadsheet with oil and gas production details for all 3,233 active shale wells in the Buckeye State. We’ve sliced and diced the numbers and have our usual Top 25 lists for natural gas and oil wells. We’ve added a couple of new charts summarizing the data, showing the total production for the quarter by driller (gas and oil) and the total production for the quarter by county. You’re gonna love it!
Vance: Time is now to expand Utica Shale usage - U.S. Senator JD Vance, R-Ohio - In a time of grinding inflation, increasing energy costs and continuing global instability, we Ohioans are lucky to live on top of the Utica Shale oil and gas basin. Stretching across Appalachian Ohio and into our neighboring states, the Utica Shale is a vast, underground reserve of energy containing an estimated 38 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, 940 million barrels of oil and 208 million barrels of natural gas liquids. While it would traditionally be impossible to access these energy deposits buried deep underground, new technologies like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have allowed us to unleash these abundant natural resources. If utilized fully, this massive reserve of energy has the potential to fuel high quality job growth and regional development in Ohio. Thankfully, utilization of the Utica Shale is already happening in Ohio’s Columbiana County. Four wells in Hanover Township set new oil production records at the start of the year with over 225,000 barrels pumped, suggesting they hit the sweet spot. Oil production across Ohio increased by almost 12 percent over the same period, and the numbers are even more impressive if you measure them against last year. Compared to the first part of 2022, Utica Shale oil production increased by 65 percent in 2023. The Shale represents America’s next energy boom and Ohio is well-positioned to make it happen. I believe that right now is the time to double down on the Ohio energy industry. In order to maximize output in the Utica Shale, oil and gas producers require new infrastructure – pipelines and refineries, large and small. We need less red tape and fewer restrictions from the federal government. The project permitting reforms made by the recent Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 are a good start, but they do not go far enough to accelerate the construction of new energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is doing everything it can to subsidize alternative energy sources and demonize our nation’s most reliable sources of power. In an effort to discourage investment in oil and gas companies, President Biden has weaponized the Securities and Exchange Commission to mandate environmental, social and governance (ESG) scores on publicly traded companies. Additionally, a bevy of onerous new Environmental Protection Agency emissions rules are clamping down on power plants, truck engines and everything in between. The Biden years have thus far been defined by his administration’s wanton harassment of fossil fuel companies, to the detriment of the American people. A war on traditional American energy is a war on the American standard of living. The Biden administration’s anti-energy crusade has very real impacts on the everyday lives of Ohioans. Power outages were once rare in this country, often precipitated by a natural disaster or extreme weather event. Recently, however, a particularly warm summer day or cold winter night could be enough to tax our energy grid to the breaking point, exposing our poor and elderly fellow citizens to dangerous conditions in their own homes. Our baseload energy production capacity is declining as gas-fired power plants close at a distressing rate, and a lack of new transmission lines makes it harder to move energy when emergencies arise. This is not the country I grew up in and it is not the future our children deserve. Many of our elected leaders are telling Americans that we need to make do with less, that the days of cheap and reliable power are over. I vehemently disagree. Our government should reverse these dangerous trends and unleash our energy industry by investing the type of infrastructure projects that have kept America’s lights on for decades. I am proud that Ohio is leading the way to a brighter future by tapping the Utica Shale, and I will not stop fighting for our energy industry to receive the infrastructure it needs to fuel our economy.
Shale Gas Boom Led To Thousands Of Job Losses In Appalachia | OilPrice.com - A fresh study on Appalachian has revealed that the shale gas boom in those regions not only failed to replace losses from the steel industry but actually led to even bigger job losses. The study by Ohio River Valley Institute, a Pennsylvania-based think tank, has examined the economic outcomes for 22 counties spanning Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, responsible for 90% of Appalachian gas production. The data showed gas production has “deteriorated” and job growth has gone from “meager” gains in 2008 to “an absolute decline”. Since 2008, the Appalachian region showed a 1.6% gain in employment before those gains upturning into a 2.1% loss, good for the loss of 10,000 jobs as well as a 4.8% decline in the population in 2021.According to the ORVI report, a slowed increase in global demand for natural gas, challenges in pipeline construction to connect the region to areas where oil can be exported and even the war in Ukraine have all contributed to the declines seen in the Ohio Valley.“This report, its predecessors and struggling downtowns in communities throughout Frackalachia provide overwhelming evidence that the predictions weren’t only wrong, they were the products of deeply flawed and biased analyses. And, more importantly, the reasons why the natural gas boom and its offspring … failed to deliver on promises of economic prosperity are structural in nature, meaning they are not going to change,” the report says. EIA researchers have predicted that peak production in Appalachia “will not be equalled again until 2045,” while other parts of the country could surpass the region in gas production by 2050.But it’s not just Appalachia’s oil and gas sector that’s facing major challenges. Norwegian oil and gas consultancy Rystad Energy has predicted that at least 20% of jobs in drilling, operational support and maintenance could be replaced by robots and automation over the next decade.According to the energy watchdog, increasing use of automation could eliminate as many as 140,000 jobs in the oil and gas sector by 2030.Robots are already emerging as a popular low-cost alternative in the fast-growing offshore industry, where they are capable of remaining underwater indefinitely and can easily access places that are difficult to reach for human-operated submersibles.At a time when roughnecks are rapidly becoming an endangered species, demand for skills like these is growing as technology plays an ever increasingly larger role in the oil and gas sector. A younger, diverse class of tech workers holding titles such as user experience designer or data engineer are increasingly replacing roughnecks, roustabouts and other blue collar workers who have normally formed the bulk of jobs in Texas shale or platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.With oil prices crashing a few years ago, oil and gas companies started making a major push to digitize and automate their operations, allowing complex operations such as offshore drilling in the middle of the ocean in West Texas to be operated and monitored from control rooms in Houston. Consequently, six-figure tech jobs that prize skills such as design, coding, computer system architecture and data analysis over physical prowess have been growing--just not fast enough to replace the tens of thousands being lost in traditional roles.Robotics have gained the most traction in recent years as they continue to prove their worth in inspection, maintenance and repairs. For example, Norwegian oil and gas giant Equinor ASA uses self-propelled robotics arms developed by Kongsberg Maritime to carry out subsea maintenance and repair in confined spaces.Oil and gas drilling--one of the costliest and most dangerous tasks in oil and gas production--also stands to be upended by robots.The efficiency and productivity gains are real and not just some ivory tower technological fetishism.Rystad estimates that using robotic drilling systems can reduce the number of roughnecks required on a drilling rig by 20-30% and lower the annual cost of wages in the sector by more than $7 billion by 2030.
Range Res. Gets Permit for 5th Well Pad in Frazer, Near West Deer - Marcellus Drilling News --Funny how a couple of miles can make all the difference. In West Deer, a township in Allegheny County, PA (near Pittsburgh), Olympus Energy faces organized opposition to every project it proposes. Some Olympus well pads get approved, and some don’t. Every Olympus pad is vigorously opposed by anti-fossil fuelers. Yet in the township immediately next door, Frazer (also Allegheny County), Range Resources appears to have no opposition.We hope we don’t jinx it for them! Range has just received a permit for the company’s fifth multi-well pad. No hew and cry from the crazy left–no nothing. Just business as usual.
27 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Aug 14 – 20 | Marcellus Drilling News - New shale permits issued for Aug 14 – 20 in the Marcellus/Utica finally turned around. There were 27 new permits issued last week, way up from the 10 issued the prior week. Last week’s permit tally included 21 new permits in Pennsylvania, 2 new permits in Ohio, and 4 new permits in West Virginia (after no permits in WV for three weeks in a row). The top permittee for the week, for the second week in a row, was Chesapeake Energy, receiving 6 permits–5 in Bradford County and 1 in Susquehanna County. APEX ENERGY | ASCENT RESOURCES | BRADFORD COUNTY | CAMERON COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | JEFFERSON COUNTY (OH) | MARSHALL COUNTY | MONROE COUNTY | OLYMPUS/HUNTLEY & HUNTLEY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | REPSOL | SENECA RESOURCES | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | STATOIL | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | TIOGA COUNTY (PA) | TUG HILL OPERATING |WASHINGTON COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY | WETZEL COUNTY
16 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Aug 21 – 27 | Marcellus Drilling News -- New shale permits issued for Aug 21 – 27 in the Marcellus/Utica decreased once again. Up down, up down, up down. That’s what it feels like. There were 16 new permits issued last week, down nearly half from the 27 issued the prior week. Last week’s permit tally included 11 new permits in Pennsylvania, 5 new permits in Ohio, and no new permits in West Virginia (WV has issued no permits in four of the last five weeks). The top permittee for the week, for the third week in a row, was Chesapeake Energy, receiving 5 permits–1 in Bradford County and 4 in Sullivan County. APEX ENERGY | ASCENT RESOURCES | BRADFORD COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | INFLECTION ENERGY |JEFFERSON COUNTY (OH) | LYCOMING COUNTY | MONROE COUNTY | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | SULLIVAN COUNTY |WESTMORELAND COUNTY
SWPA Republican Rep. Sells Out, Turns Against Marcellus Industry -- Marcellus Drilling News - We’re naming names. Pennsylvania State Rep. Charity Grimm Krupa (Republican from Fayette County) has turned against the Marcellus industry. She is introducing legislation that would ban drilling new wastewater injection wells in the state, making it much harder to drill new shale wells. Companies end up drilling fewer wells without a place to dispose of the naturally occurring water that comes from shale (and conventional) wells for years after an oil or gas well comes online. Was Krupa always anti-drilling? Or has she recently lost her way? Either way, she needs to be vigorously opposed in this effort–and someone needs to primary her in the next election. She needs to go.
Appalachian Natural Gas Production Ramped Up in Early 2023 - A recent report indicated that natural gas production from the Appalachian Basin peaked in 2022, but U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data show that marketed output increased through the beginning of 2023. In the report, Frackalachia Update: Peak Natural Gas and the Economic Implication for Appalachia, Ohio River Valley Institute (ORVI) researcher Sean O’Leary noted EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023) forecast natural gas production peaked in 2022. Founded in 2020, ORVI is a nonprofit think tank that advocates for clean energy and a shift away from fossil fuel use. The organization is funded by the Heinz Foundation, which has a mission to advance southwestern Pennsylvania’s social, economic and environmental sustainability.
‘We will not allow this environmental genocide’: Chester residents unite against Philly LNG task force The Philadelphia Liquefied Natural Gas Export Task Force met a wall of unified resistance in Chester for its plans to build an LNG terminal along the Delaware River, at its third public meeting on Tuesday morning in the city. The group has been holding a series of public meetings to examine the feasibility of an LNG export terminal.But the bipartisan task force, which along with lawmakers includes representatives from the gas industry, the building trades union, Philadelphia Gas Works, the Department of Environmental Protection, and the Department of Community and Economic Development, seemed unprepared to face an audience of residents and environmental activists, who stood behind a unified message “This is a community you ought not even try to think of coming in,” said Zulene Mayfield, founder of Chester Residents Concerned for Quality Living (CRCQL). “We will not allow this environmental genocide.”The task force plans to issue a final report along with recommendations to guide the Pennsylvania General Assembly in November and one possible location is Chester.The growth of LNG export facilities across the United States has drawn criticism from climate activists who say it will boost natural gas production and greenhouse gas emissions. The highly flammable gas is also a safety concern for those who would end up as neighbors to these facilities.More than 150 people, many from communities along the Delaware River, packed into Widener University’s Lathem Hall to hear testimony from four speakers: Carl Marrara, executive director of the Pennsylvania Manufacturers’ Association, Neil Chatterjee, former chair of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Chester City Councilmember Stefan Roots, and Mayfield.
PA Manufacturers Release Study Supporting Philly LNG Export Plan -- Marcellus Drilling News - Last week, MDN told you about the third and final public hearing held by the Pennsylvania House Philadelphia LNG Natural Gas Export Task Force (see Chester Residents Oppose Philly LNG Export Project at Final Hearing). The Task Force was established by law in early 2022 to study how to establish Philadelphia LNG exports to international markets, particularly European exports. The task force is supposed to deliver its report by November of this year. We have an addendum to our previous coverage of what was (in retrospect) Kabuki theater staged by the extreme left at that hearing.
New gas pipeline rules floated following 2018 blasts in Massachusetts - (AP) — Federal regulators are proposing a series of rules changes aimed at toughening safety requirements for millions of miles of gas distribution pipelines nationwide following a string of gas explosions in Massachusetts in 2018.These proposed changes are designed to improve safety and ease risk through the improvement of emergency response plans, integrity management plans, operation manuals and other steps, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration.This proposal was prompted by the series of blasts that ripped though parts of the Merrimack Valley region of Massachusetts. The explosions and fires in Lawrence, Andover and North Andover in September 2018 left a teenager dead, about two dozen injured and destroyed or damaged more than 130 properties. Thousands of residents and businesses were also left without natural gas service for heat and hot water for months in some cases. Leonel Rondon, of Lawrence, died after the chimney of an exploding house crashed onto his car and crushed him. The 18-year-old Rondon had received his driver’s license just hours earlier. Rondon's family later reached a settlement with the utility involved in the disaster. The explosions were caused by overpressurized pipelines operated by Columbia Gas of Massachusetts, according to a federal investigation. The utility agreed to pay the state $56 million in 2020 in addition to a $53 million federal fine and a $143 million lawsuit settlement. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said millions of miles of gas distribution pipelines deliver energy to tens of millions of Americans, heating homes and powering businesses. “As the tragic death of Leonel Rondon in 2018 reminded us, more must be done to ensure the safety of those pipelines,” Buttigieg said in a statement Thursday.
PHMSA Extends Rule Suspending LNG Rail Shipments Through Mid-2025 - The Department of Transportation’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) on Friday issued a final rule extending the suspension of LNG transports by rail car through June 2025, ensuring no shipments occur until a companion rulemaking is finalized. In 2021, the Biden administration first suspended a Trump-era final rule authorizing liquefied natural gas rail shipments in specialized containers that have never been used. PHMSA previously said it needed more time to issue a companion rulemaking. The initial suspension was intended to sunset on June 30, 2024. “The suspension will ensure no rail tank car transports LNG before updated research on safety is completed or a revised rulemaking is completed by June 30, 2025, whichever is earlier,”
Rule allowing rail shipments of LNG will be put on hold to allow more study of safety concerns (AP) — A Trump-era rule allowing railroads to haul highly flammable liquefied natural gas will now be formally put on hold to allow more time to study the safety concerns related to transporting that fuel and other substances like hydrogen that must be kept at extremely low temperatures when they are shipped, regulators announced Thursday. Right after it was announced in the summer of 2020, the rule was challenged in court by a number of environmental groups and 14 states. The uncertainty about the rule on transporting the fuel known as LNG kept railroads from shipping it. The Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration says no one has ever even ordered one of the specially fortified rail cars that would have been required to ship LNG, and several hundred of those cars that would each take at least 18 months to build would likely be needed to make the idea viable. “We need to do more safety investigative work,” said Tristan Brown, the deputy administrator who is leading the agency. “Until we do that work, we don’t want someone to, you know, make investments and deploy something where we haven’t fully done the process we normally do need to do.” Brown acknowledged that the rule was rushed under a directive from former President Donald Trump, so it needs to be refined.
Database shows city, JHU paying fossil fuel lobbying firms — A new database shows Johns Hopkins University, the city of Baltimore, and dozens of other Maryland institutions that work to improve the state's environment are also paying lobbying firms that represent the fossil fuel industry, the 11 News I-Team has learned. The group F Minus found more than 150 universities and more than 200 local governments across the country are paying lobbying firms that also work for the fossil fuel industry. In 2017, trustees of Johns Hopkins University voted to divest from coal, signaling that renewable energy was the future. In 2018, the city of Baltimore sued ExxonMobil and other fossil fuel companies for damages related to climate change. James Browning is the executive director of the national nonprofit F Minus, which aims to expose the lobbying firms working double duty to advance the goals of the fossil fuel industry while also representing those that want to reduce the effects of climate change. He told the I-Team that there is one problem. "So, Hopkins shares a lobbyist with seven fossil fuel companies -- two of those companies have coal operations," Browning said. Then, there's the city of Baltimore. "One thing we found was that it's suing ExxonMobil, among other companies, but the city's own lobbying firm actually has ExxonMobil as a client," Browning said. "I'm sorry, city of Baltimore, I'm sorry, Johns Hopkins, for the inconvenience. But, you know, you need to find lobbyists who aren't making the climate crisis worse." A review of the Maryland lobbying registrations website shows Browning, a former lobbyist in Annapolis, is right. Browning told the I-Team that when Hopkins and Baltimore chose to use the lobbying firms, they provided cover for the less-desirable fossil fuel companies. "If you were a lobbyist in Annapolis and your only client is ExxonMobil, some other oil and gas company, you are going to get a lot of doors closed in your face," Browning said. "But if you can land some prestigious clients, like Johns Hopkins University, like the city of Baltimore, it's a different story." Browning said Hopkins and Baltimore, as well as dozens of other Maryland institutions doing the same thing, have another option. "If they stood up and said, 'We're not going to work with fossil fuel lobbyists anymore,' that would matter," Browning said. The I-Team requested interviews with Hopkins and with Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott, but both declined.
Cheniere and BASF sign long-term LNG SPA - Cheniere Energy, Inc. has announced that Cheniere’s subsidiary, Cheniere Marketing, LLC, has entered into a long-term LNG sale and purchase agreement (SPA) with BASF. Under the SPA, BASF has agreed to purchase up to approximately 0.8 million tpy of LNG from Cheniere Marketing on a free-on-board (FOB) basis for a purchase price indexed to the Henry Hub price, plus a fixed liquefaction fee. Deliveries will commence in mid-2026 and, subject to a positive final investment decision with respect to the first train (Train Seven) of the Sabine Pass Liquefaction Expansion Project (SPL Expansion Project) in Louisiana, will increase to approximately 0.8 million tpy upon the start of commercial operations of Train Seven. The term of the SPA extends through 2043. “This SPA demonstrates the critical role US natural gas plays in providing long-term secure, sustainable and affordable energy for Europe. With this agreement, we are supporting the objectives of one of Europe’s key industrial end-use consumers to ensure stability of its supply chain.” “By establishing our own dedicated LNG supply chain with Cheniere, we are diversifying our energy and raw materials portfolio at a time of critical changes in the European gas market, which is marked by increased demand and volatile prices for LNG,” said Dr Dirk Elvermann, BASF’s Chief Financial Officer. “While we are reducing our dependence on fossil fuels to reach our goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, this agreement will ensure reliable supply of natural gas at competitive terms.” The SPL Expansion Project is being developed for up to approximately 20 million tpy of total LNG capacity. In May 2023, certain subsidiaries of Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. entered the pre-filing review process with respect to the SPL Expansion Project with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission under the National Environmental Policy Act.
Great Lakes awarded contract for Port Arthur LNG project -Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation, the largest provider of dredging services in the US, has been awarded the Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 project marine dredging and disposal contract. Great Lakes has been contracted by Bechtel Energy, Inc., a leading global EPC company that is managing the Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 project in partnership with Sempra Infrastructure. The Port Arthur LNG project is a natural gas liquefaction and export terminal in Southeast Texas with direct access to the Gulf of Mexico. The facilities will include two natural gas liquefaction trains with a nameplate capacity of approximately 13 million tpy. The project will also include construction of new natural gas pipelines to deliver natural gas to the terminal. The scope of work on this project is to dredge the Port Arthur LNG berthing pocket on the Port Arthur ship canal. The berthing pocket and turning basin will connect to the Port Arthur ship canal and allow LNG vessels to berth, load and depart safely. A significant portion of the dredged materials will be placed by Great Lakes within designated beneficial use of dredged material (BUDM) areas to restore and enhance marshlands within a local wildlife refuge. Great Lakes is expected to start this project later this year.
Oil spill at Florida's Port Manatee under investigation - A mysterious crude oil spill was reported at Port Manatee in the U.S. state of Florida on Friday, according to China Media Group (CMG). Crews are trying to contain the leak, but the source of the spill is unknown and the cause is under investigation.
API Sues BOEM over Gulf of Mexico Restrictions --The state of Louisiana, Chevron USA Inc., and the American Petroleum Institute (API) have filed a legal challenge regarding the Department of the Interior Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s (BOEM) Final Notice of Sale for Lease Sale 261 announced last week, complaining about “severe restrictions on oil and natural gas vessel traffic” and “significantly reduced acreage”, the API said in a statement. According to the filing with the District Court for the Western District of Louisiana dated August 24, the “BOEM changed the rules and dramatically altered the terms of Lease Sale 261” in its Final Notice of Sale and Record of Decision. Specifically, the BOEM imposed a new lease stipulation “containing burdensome operating restrictions across a newly defined and vastly enlarged ‘expanded Rice’s Whale area’ that more than doubled the size of the former Rice’s whale area and extended it across the entire stretch of the Gulf”, the filing said. Furthermore, the BOEM “withdrew from Lease Sale 261 all the acreage falling within this expanded area”, the filing continued. The filing states that the BOEM’s “last-minute changes are unlawful several times over” because the new stipulation and acreage withdrawal contravene "the letter and spirit of Congress’ command in the Inflation Reduction Act, which explicitly directed BOEM to conduct Lease Sale 261 in accordance with BOEM’s previously adopted Five-Year Plan for oil and gas leasing—not to introduce substantial new conditions and complications, let alone withdraw millions of acres, at the last minute”. Further, the challenged provisions also “contravene the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act’s procedural requirements and implementing regulations, which instruct BOEM to provide notice of the terms of the lease sale in the Proposed Notice of Sale, not radically change them in the Final Notice”, the filing alleges. Also, the challenged provisions “contravene the Administrative Procedure Act, as they are a wholly arbitrary and capricious departure from BOEM’s prior position without adequate explanation for the change, and otherwise exceed BOEM’s statutory and regulatory authority”, according to the the filing.
Jeff Landry, API sue Biden over Gulf of Mexico lease sale -- Both environmental groups and fossil fuel advocates, including Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry, have sued the Biden administration over the scope of a Gulf of Mexico oil and gas lease sale slated for late September.Landry teamed up late Thursday with the American Petroleum Institute, the oil and gas industry's largest lobbying firm, and Chevron U.S.A. Inc. to sue the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the Department of the Interior in federal court in Lake Charles after the agencies said Wednesday that roughly 67 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico would be offered up for potential oil and gas exploration. That’s less than the 73.4 million acres it had initially proposed for the sale, scheduled for Sept. 27.Meanwhile, six environmental justice groups on Friday announced they were also suing BOEM and Interior, saying the agencies failed to consider the adverse impact the Gulf lease sale would have on coastal communities and climate change. The groups suing BOEM and Interior include Healthy Gulf, Bayou City Waterkeeper, Friends of the Earth, the Center for Biological Diversity, the Natural Resources Defense Council and Sierra Club. Earthjustice filed the challenge on their behalf.The sales are federal auctions that let companies bid for space to explore and possibly extract oil and natural gas. Bids for the September sale would be largely limited to the Gulf’s western and central regions, with a sliver of blocks available in the Gulf’s eastern region. The available acreage extends more than 200 miles from southeast Louisiana’s coast, according to federal maps.The reduced area appears to be tied to a settlement that environmental groups reached with the Biden administration in July after they sued the National Marine Fisheries Service in 2020. The environmental groups claimed the Trump administration failed to enact adequate safeguards to protect marine species from offshore drilling operations.In that settlement, which was approved by a federal judge Thursday, BOEM will exclude Rice’s whale habitats from any lease sales that occur while the settlement is in effect. The Rice’s whale is a critically endangered species in the Gulf of Mexico.Landry and the fossil fuel coalition slammed the Biden administration for “arbitrary and unlawful last-minute changes” to the extent of the lease sale. They blasted the “burdensome operating restrictions” that they say more than doubled the size of the now off-limits Rice’s whale area. They also argued the changes contradict the Inflation Reduction Act, which forced the Biden administration to hold at least two lease sales in 2023.
Energy interests and environmentalists fight Biden oil lease plan from different sides (AP) — The Biden administration’s plan to protect an endangered species of whale by scaling back an auction of oil and gas drilling leases in the Gulf of Mexico is being challenged by the oil industry, even as environmentalists go to court to stop the lease sale altogether. The conflicting federal lawsuits, one filed Thursday in Louisiana by oil interests, the other announced Friday in Washington by the organization Earthjustice, focus on a planned sale of oil and gas leases set for Sept. 27 in New Orleans. As originally proposed in March, the sale was to cover more than 73 million acres. That area was reduced to 67 million acres this week when the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management announced final plans for the sale. The revision, which also includes new speed limits and requirements for personnel on industry vessels, dovetails with measures announced by the administration on Monday to protect the endangered Rice’s whale in the Gulf. The adoption of those measures is part of an agreement the administration reached last month with environmentalists in efforts to settle a whale-protection lawsuit filed in federal court in Maryland.
The U.S. is pumping oil faster than ever. Republicans don't care. - The late-summer surge in gasoline prices is heightening the risks that inflation poses for President Joe Biden, and offering Republicans a new chance to pin the blame on his green agenda.The GOP narrative has a major hole: U.S. oil production — already the highest in the world — is on track to set a new record this year, and will probably rise even more in 2024. But the ever-increasing flow of U.S. crude has failed to keep a lid on gasoline prices, showing once again that a global market drives the fuel prices that shape presidents’ political futures.And that means events far beyond the nation’s borders will play a sizable role in voters’ verdict on “Bidenomics” — as global oil prices rise and fall in response to banking conditions in Europe, China’s slumping real estate market, Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and the latest maneuvers by Saudi Arabia.“The U.S. consumer blames whoever is in the White House” for high gasoline prices, Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for financial advisory firm LPL Financial said in an interview. “Biden’s people have to be watching this despite a stronger economy, which is an irony.”It’s not the outcome that some experts had hoped for from the United States’ rise to energy superpower. Wall Street Journal opinion columnist Walter Russell Mead predicted in 2018 that abundant U.S. energy supplies would enable energy markets to “shrug off geopolitical shocks,” while Ed Morse, a long-time oil market analyst, foresaw in 2015 U.S. oil production would drive prices down sharply and herald “the end of OPEC.” Instead, while the United States’ reliance on OPEC for oil imports has diminished, the country’s fuel market is still dependent on decisions made at the oil cartel’s meetings in Vienna — no matter how much oil comes out of U.S. shale fields.
Oil Rises After EIA Confirms Major Crude Draw --- Crude oil prices moved higher today after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reportedan inventory decline of 10.6 million barrels for the week to August 25.The estimate compared with a draw of 6.1 million barrels for the previous week.A day earlier, the American Petroleum hadestimated inventories had shed a massive 11.5 million barrels in the week to August 25, which prompted a spike in oil prices.In fuels, the Energy Information Administration reported a modest gasoline draw and a middle distillate increase.In gasoline, stocks shed 200,000 barrels in the reporting period, which compared with a build of 1.5 million barrels for the previous week.Gasoline production averaged 10 million barrels daily last week, which compared with 9.7 million barrels daily a week earlier.In middle distillates, the authority estimated an inventory increase of 1.2 million barrels for the second to last week of August, which compared with a modest build of 900,000 barrels for the week before that.Middle distillate production averaged 5 million barrels daily last week, which compared with 5.1 million barrels daily for the previous week.Refineries processed 16.6 million bpd last week, operating at 93.3% of capacity, with imports averaging 6.6 million bpd, down from the previous week, when imports averaged 6.9 million bpd.Oil prices, meanwhile, have been on the rise after two depressed weeks during which traders focused on economic data from the United States and China.This week, however, things changed when the American Petroleum Institute reported that massive inventory draw, suggesting demand for fuels in the world’s biggest consumer remained resilient in the face of challenges.Hurricane Idalia, which is currently moving towards the Florida coast, contributed to the price rise with the potential for more evacuations in the Gulf of Mexico after Chevron suspended operations at three platforms.At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $86.03 per barrel and West Texas Intermediatewas trading at $81.84 per barrel, both up from opening.
US oil, gas rig count drops 9 to 705 as activity hits 20-month low -The US oil and gas rig count continued to decline through late August as total deployments dropped to their lowest since late December 2021, data from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed. In the week to Aug. 23, the US rig count dropped by nine to just 705. After reaching a post-pandemic high at 889 in November 2022, the US drilling fleet has now contracted by over 20% in the nine months since as domestic oil and gas producers continue to respond to weaker commodity prices this year. Through late August, the US benchmark WTI crude price has averaged just $78.26/b in 2023, down sharply from $100.36/b averaged over the same eight-month period in 2022. In the gas market, the drop in futures prices has been even more pronounced with Henry Hub prompt-month gas trading at an average $2.48/MMBtu this year, compared with $6.56/MMBtu from January through late August 2022, S&P Global data showed. From mid- to late-August, the continued decline in rig count was led overwhelmingly by cuts to oil-directed drilling activity – a longer-term trend that has been underway for much of this summer. In the week to Aug. 23, rig count in the Permian dropped to 331 as the basin continues to consolidate drilling activity, cutting West Texas rig numbers from the 350-360 range this spring. Among the other oil-directed drilling basins, activity cuts in the SCOOP-STACK basin of Oklahoma rank a close second this summer with the total rig count there dropping to 29 in the week to Aug. 23 – down from 43 as recently as May. Rig count in the Eagle Ford was unchanged from mid- to late August at 53 but also remains well below levels in the low-60s this spring and a count at over 70 as recently as March. The Denver-Julesburg with 17 rigs and the Powder River with 15 rigs currently have largely bucked the downward trend this summer with relatively little change to drilling activity in recent months.
Oil Industry Not Spending Enough To Balance Supply & Demand - After years of warnings of failure to invest in enough new exploration, the industry has begun spending more. Yet, it would still be less than is necessary to secure enough supply to respond to demand. That’s the take of Wood Mackenzie analysts, at least, who recently reported that the oil and gas industry is currently in the third year of an upcycle, with this year’s investments in new production at $490 billion. This would be significantly higher than the low reached in 2020, which stood at $370 billion. Even though spending on its own is not enough to secure supply, the Wood Mac analysts noted in an interview for the firm that cost reductions will make up for the difference. They note the rise of U.S. shale and other non-OPEC sources, and forecast non-OPEC producers to maintain a constant market share in the coming years. Indeed, this chimes in with what U.S. oil industry executives reported during the latest financial reporting season. What the said, basically, was that wells were yielding more oil than expected, boosting total production. The reason wells were yielding more: technological improvements. Argus reported earlier this month, citing Pioneer Natural Resources, that well productivity since the start of the year has been trending significantly higher than the average for 2022. At the same time, however, Bloomberg recently cited research from Enverus suggesting that shale wells were draining faster than previously assumed, with few untapped reservoirs left as the shale patch gets mature. Besides U.S. oil, there is also Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and smaller producers such as Guyana. These have contributed significantly to global supply, but OPEC remains the biggest fish in the oil pond because of its common supply control policies. What’s more, with the expansion of the BRICS bloc, we get another grouping of some of the largest producers in the world, partly overlapping with OPEC but also including Brazil and Argentina.Groupings aside, global investments in new oil and gas supplied are well and truly on a rise despite the transition push. Goldman Sachs reported last month that there were currently 70 large-scale oil and gas projects under development globally right now. That was up by a substantial 25% from 2020, although 2020 could hardly be seen as a normal year for investment decision-making in any industry except perhaps IT. Per the investment bank, the seven-year-long underinvestment period led to a sharp decline in the resource life of future projects as well as the life of already producing fields. With a rebound in investment, this may yet change. Wood Mac, on the other hand, warns of peak demand and a fundamental change in the oil and gas industry driven by the prospect of that.According to upstream analysts Fraser McKay and Ian Thom, the current cycle will not end with a bust as all previous cycles in the industry did. The reason: the prospect of peak oil demand caused by the transition to non-hydrocarbon energy sources. This prospect, they argued, would keep oil and gas producers on their toes and maintain their financial discipline over the longer term.Still, despite the prospect of peak demand, even Wood Mac analysts are worried about the lack of a spare production capacity cushion, which could be viewed as a side effect of this newly found discipline with spending and focus on efficiency while adjusting to a world in transition.
CPUC Approves Aliso Canyon Natural Gas Storage Increase to Hedge Against Winter Price Volatility - California regulators approved an increase in the maximum natural gas storage level allowed at Southern California Gas Co.’s (SoCalGas) Aliso Canyon facility in Los Angeles County to 68.8 Bcf from 41.16 Bcf, the highest amount deemed safe by the California Geologic Energy Management Division (CalGEM). The decision allows SoCalGas to inject more gas into the facility during fall in order to protect consumers from natural gas and electricity price spikes in winter, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) said. “The Western region of the U.S. saw substantial increases in wholesale natural gas prices from November 2022 to March 2023,” regulators said. “Preliminary estimates from stakeholders suggest that the CPUC’s decision to temporarily increase natural gas...
‘My mind is just blown.’ California allows more gas storage at Aliso Canyon leak site - State officials voted Thursday to let Southern California Gas Co. store far more fuel at the Aliso Canyon gas storage field, eight years after a record-breaking leak spewed more than 100,000 metric tons of planet-warming methane into the atmosphere and prompted thousands of San Fernando Valley residents to evacuate their homes for months. The 5-0 vote by Gov. Gavin Newsom’s appointees on the California Public Utilities Commission angered many residents of Porter Ranch and other neighborhoods near Aliso Canyon, who see the gas field as a continued threat to their health and have called on Newsom to live up to his long-standing pledge to shut it down. The vote also frustrated climate change activists who have urged state officials to do more to help families replace gas appliances with electric heat pumps and induction stoves. Newsom’s appointees said they agreed with an analysis presented by SoCalGas — and endorsed by commission staff — finding that more fuel storage at Aliso could lead to lower gas and electricity costs for Southern California residents this winter. . It’s been two years since the Public Utilities Commission raised the storage cap at Aliso Canyon — which had been cut after the methane leak — to 41 billion cubic feet. Now the agency has upped the limit to the 68.6 billion cubic feet requested by SoCalGas and its sister utility, San Diego Gas & Electric — the maximum amount deemed safe by another state agency. Alice Reynolds, the commission’s president, said the decision “is not about using more natural gas or allowing the use of more natural gas.” She said her agency and others are working to reduce reliance on the fossil fuel, by distributing rebates for electric appliances, eliminating subsidies for new gas hookups and ordering utilities to buy more renewable electricity. But none of those steps have changed the reality that we still need gas. “We’re in a transition period,” Reynolds said. “Frankly, we’re not there yet. And we face many challenges.” The Public Advocates Office, an independent arm of the Public Utilities Commission that looks out for consumers, supported the decision. But every one of the three dozen people who offered comments on Aliso Canyon before the vote felt differently, many of them flabbergasted that the Newsom administration hasn’t made shutting down the storage field a higher priority. “My mind is just blown that we’re actually talking about this again,” Jane Fowler, a Granada Hills resident and co-founder of the Aliso Moms Alliance, told the commissioners. “We’re trying to get off fossil fuels for our future, for everyone’s future. Why would we be going backward? Why would we make ourselves more dependent on poison?” Or as dozens of Porter Ranch residents told Newsom in a recent letter: “This facility represents a clear and present danger.”
Petronas gas project in Canada aims to start exports next year ----- Malaysian national energy company Petronas on Wednesday said a multibillion-dollar natural gas export facility in Canada in which it has a 25% stake is expected to be operational by the second half of next year. Construction of the facility is expected to be completed soon, the company said. "Canada ... is one of our most promising and largest reserves with at least 50 Tcf," or trillion cubic feet, Petronas President and Group CEO Tengku Muhammad Taufik said at a news conference. "[The progress] now stands at about 83.5%, and we should be expecting deliveries, hopefully [in July of] next year." Petronas acquired its stake in the LNG Canada project in 2018, its first in the country. The facility in the province of British Columbia includes a natural gas liquefaction plant and facilities for the storage and export of LNG. Other partners include Royal Dutch Shell, PetroChina, Mitsubishi and Korea Gas. Muhammad spoke as Petronas announced its first-half net profit declined 13% to 40.2 billion ringgit ($8.7 billion) in the first half of 2023 from the same period last year amid a double-digit decline in oil prices. It attributed 6.2 billion ringgit of the decline to a lower average oil price, which the company said was 26% lower in the first half. Revenue declined marginally to 170.3 billion ringgit from 170.4 billion ringgit.
Owners of controversial fracking site in Yorkshire to turn it into a geothermal energy extraction facility instead A firm which found itself at the centre of a storm over its plans to frack in Ryedale looks set to complete an extraordinary turnaround by helping launch the UK’s first geothermal well, extracting clean, renewable energy from deep underground without disturbing the geology. From next month Third Energy’s Kirby Misperton KM8 well site, which was the focus of many months of heated protests after North Yorkshire County Council approved hydraulic fracturing for gas there in 2016, will become an operational test site for geothermal energy production, led by pioneering firm CeraPhi Energy2. Ahead of the eight-week trial, CeraPhi says it has patented technologies to convert existing wells at the end of their life by plugging the bottoms and using circulating fluids in a closed tube system within the well to bring the heat found deep underground to the surface. Unlike hydraulic fracturing CeraPhi’s process does not interfere with any rock formation, sub-surface system or any fluids, and has been likened to the reverse process of a fridge, but without using carbon dioxide. CeraPhi chief executive Karl Farrow said: “We are not touching the geology – sending water down the outside of the tubes to collect the heat before bringing the water up the tubing to the surface where the heat is then processed.” The company says there are a potential further 680 oil and gas wells which could be converted in the UK, including more than 200 between Lincolnshire and the North-East, and 12 in the Kirby Misperton area alone. Tests have revealed the temperature at the bottom of the 3km deep KM8 well is about 110C and the firm is expecting to get up to 90C when transferred by liquid to the surface, which it says is sufficient to supply heat to up to 400 homes for about 40 years.
Gate terminal starts construction of 4th LNG tank at Port of Rotterdam --Gate terminal and its shareholders, Gasunie and Vopak, have announced that the final investment decision has been taken to expand Gate terminal’s storage and regasification capacity. The expansion consists of a new LNG storage tank of 180 000 m3 and additional regasification capacity of 4 billion m3/y. The new capacity is already rented out under long-term commercial agreements and is expected to be ready for operation by 2H26. Vopak and Gasunie are the founders and owners of Gate terminal in Rotterdam, which has been operational since 2011. The terminal plays a crucial role in the supply and availability of gas in the Netherlands and its neighbouring countries. Once all envisaged projects at Gate terminal have been completed, the terminal will have a total regasification capacity of 20 billion m3/y. Hans Coenen, on behalf of the Board of Directors of Gasunie, said: “The investment in this new tank is part of a broader package of proposed and already realised measures to increase LNG import capacity in the Netherlands. This is necessary to compensate for the loss of Russian natural gas and to reduce the scarcity of natural gas on the European gas market. In addition to expanding LNG import capacity, Gasunie is continuing to accelerate the energy transition. For example, through the construction of a national hydrogen network and the conversion of import terminals. We will also continue to focus on green gas, transport of heat, and carbon capture and storage.”
Gazprom’s gas output decline bottoming out, industry data show - The drop in Gazprom PJSC’s natural gas production showed signs of bottoming out in July, with industry data indicating the smallest annual decline so far this year. Gazprom, which has a monopoly on Russian pipeline exports, stopped releasing regular operational figures this year. However, its production is included in industry data for much smaller, independent producers, where Gazprom dominates production totals. The combined output of this group in July was 24.3 billion cubic meters, down eight per cent from a year earlier. That compares to an annual decline of just under 27 per cent in May and nearly 17 per cent in June, according to Bloomberg calculations. These companies accounted for 57 per cent of nation’s total output last month, according to data seen by Bloomberg.
Natural gas imports down in June -Türkiye’s natural gas import declined by 39.2 percent in June from a year ago to 2.33 billion cubic meters, the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK) has informed. LNG imports fell 18 percent to 462 million cubic meters, while imports via pipelines were down 43 percent to 1.87 billion cubic meters. Azerbaijan was the largest supplier of natural gas, accounting for 32 percent of Türkiye’s all gas imports, followed by Russia at 30.3 percent. Iran and Algeria ranked third and fourth at 18 percent and 16 percent, respectively. The country’s overall gas consumption fell nearly 16 percent to 2.57 billion cubic meters. However, households’ consumption leaped 78 percent year-on-year to 688 million cubic meters. Industry’s natural gas consumption dropped 20.3 percent to 911 million cubic meters. Electricity power plants used 377 million cubic meters of gas in June, marking a 60 percent decline from a year earlier. Natural gas stocks stood at 4.9 billion cubic meters, up 80 percent year-on-year.
Shell Starts Production at Malaysia Gas Project -- Shell PLC has announced the delivery of the first gas from its Timi field platform in Malaysia, designed to produce up to 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day. Output is carried through a new 49.7-mile pipeline to the Shell-operated F23 production hub, the British energy giant has said. Shell, whose Sarawak Shell Berhad operates the Timi field development project through a 75 percent stake in the SK318 production sharing contract, touted the platform as a testament to its drive for less-emission production. "Timi features Shell’s first wellhead platform in Malaysia that is powered by a solar and wind hybrid power system", it said in a press release this week. "This unmanned platform is also more cost efficient, as a result of it being around 60 percent lighter in weight, than a conventional tender-assisted drilling wellhead platform that relies on oil and gas for power." Shell had started up its first fully solar-powered wellhead platform, on the Gorek field, on May 24, 2020, as announced by the company July 31, 2020. Sarawak Shell operates the field under the SK408 production sharing contract. Shell discovered Timi, a sweet gas field, in 2018 under the SK318 contract with PETRONAS Carigali Sendirian Bhd (15 percent), a subsidiary of Malaysia's state-owned Petroliam Nasional Bhd (PETRONAS), and Brunei Energy Exploration (10 percent). Timi sits about 126 miles northwest of Miri, Sarawak and 157 miles north-west of Bintulu in the same state, according to Shell.
Australian union set to strike at major Chevron LNG facilities from Sept. 7 --Workers at US energy company Chevron's liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Australia are set to go on strike on Sept. 7 after disputes over working conditions, the Australian labor union Offshore Alliance (OA) announced on Tuesday. The OA warned the company about taking protected industrial action that may include 'numerous work bans and complete stoppages of work', the OA told Anadolu in an e-mailed note. Union members in Chevron's Wheatstone Downstream and Gorgan facilities voted to endorse protected industrial action after Chevron rejected imposing an industry standard agreement. The union said many companies working across Western Australian gas fields have successfully negotiated enterprise agreements with the OA to cover their workers in the last few years. However, OA members at Chevron have still not reached an agreement on several key claims, including job security, agreed rosters, transfers to other Chevron worksites, working overtime, training standards, travel arrangements and rates of pay, the union explained. 'Our members at Chevron aren’t being unreasonable in their claims and if Chevron could just accept that it must provide terms and conditions of employment that meet the industry standard, we could settle this matter in a matter of hours,' said the OA spokesperson and Western Australian Workers' Union Branch Secretary Brad Gandy. Meanwhile, Chevron also explained in an e-mailed note that the company received notices for protected industrial action at the facilities that is due to start on Sept. 7 if no agreement has been reached. 'While we don't believe that industrial action is necessary for the agreement to be reached, we recognize employees have the right to take protected industrial action, and we will continue to take steps to maintain safe and reliable operations in the event of disruption at our facilities, a Chevron Australia spokesperson said.
Chevron Turns to Australian Regulators to Mediate Negotiations with LNG Workers – The Offtake - Workers at the Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG terminals in Western Australia rejected a pay package proposed by Chevron Corp. The proposal did not have the approval of union representatives last week, when Chevron took it directly to employees. Chevron has now asked Australia’s Fair Work Commission to help mediate negotiations with the unions, which are scheduled to start a strike Thursday (Sept. 7) with periodic work stoppages. The export terminals represent about 5% of the world’s liquefaction capacity. Santos Ltd. has agreed to sell a 2.6% stake in the Papua New Guinea LNG terminal to state-owned Kumul Petroleum Holdings Ltd. for $576 million. Kumul has an option to buy another 2.4% in the 8.3 million metric tons/year...
NT Chief Minister Natasha Fyles faced expulsion from Territory Labor's Left faction over pro-fracking stance - Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles has faced a motion calling for her expulsion from Labor’s Left faction. Multiple sources within Territory Labor have told the ABC the motion was a move designed in part to "stir up debate" about the NT government's pro-fracking stance. It was debated across multiple left faction meetings, but was eventually withdrawn on July 12. The motion, which has been seen by the ABC, states: "This meeting of Left Labor demands the immediate expulsion of Natasha Fyles from Left Labor." Sources said Ms Fyles attended one of the meetings to address left faction members and defend her government's pro-fracking position.
European Majors Look To Expand Venezuela Oil Deals - Italy’s Eni and Spain’s Repsol, two major European oil and gas firms, are looking to expand their oil deals with Venezuela with U.S. consent, Reuters reported on Tuesday, quoting sources familiar with the matter. A potential further U.S. exemption for Eni and Repsol could give the companies access to oil swap deals, which could increase fuel deliveries to Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA in exchange for Venezuelan crude to be shipped to Europe. Under the current sanctions regime, direct payments to PDVSA are not allowed, so companies have sought authorization to offtake some crude from Venezuela as a form of payment for their receivable debts. Last year, Eni and Repsol were allowed to ship some Venezuelan crude to process at European refineries in order to recover debts and dividends owed to them by Venezuela for their joint ventures in the country holding the world’s largest oil reserves. Under new terms of oil-for-debt deals, Eni and Repsol could now be authorized to export fuels such as naphtha to Venezuela, according to Reuters’ sources. The Biden Administration has signaled it could be open to additional special authorizations for oil companies in Venezuela as it seeks to limit the fallout of a tight global supply on U.S. gasoline prices. The first opening of the Biden Administration to Venezuela occurred at the end of last year when it eased the sanctions to allow Chevron to resume its work in Venezuela and export the crude when access to Russian heavy crude was shut off by the sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.Now there could be an opening in the U.S. Administration to allow more companies – other than Chevron – to export crude oil from Venezuela.Federal government officials in Washington are reportedly working on a draft proposal for sanctions relief to be offered to Venezuela if it organizes “free and fair” presidential elections.The pitch focuses on letting more companies buy Venezuelan crude, Reuters reported last week, citing unnamed sources.
Oil loadings from Russia’s Baltic ports for Sept. 1-10 set to rise 38% from Aug. 1-10 | Russian Urals oil and Kazakhstan’s KEBCO loadings from Russia’s Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga will jump to 2.2 million tonnes for Sept. 1-10 from 1.6 million tonnes planned for Aug. 1-10, two traders said on Wednesday. Combined exports of Urals and KEBCO oil grades from Primorsk and Ust-Lyga in the first 10 days of September will rise by some 38% from the same period of August, Reuters calculations showed. Russia is expected to increase oil exports from its western ports in September from August amid seasonal refinery maintenance. Meanwhile Moscow’s pledge to cut oil exports as a part of OPEC+ cooperation may limit the increase of loadings, the traders said. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday that Russia will cut oil exports in September by 300,000 barrels per day compared to June 2023. Oil exports and transit from Russia’s Baltic ports in June stood around 6.4 million tonnes, according to trading and shipping sources.
India's Russian crude imports decline sharply in Aug to lowest in 7 months --Indian imports of Russian oil plunged by a record in August month-on-month (MoM) as discounts on the fuel shrank in tandem with rising Brent oil prices. Higher crude prices will drive inflation or hurt earnings at oil companies and India's fiscal position if such spikes are not passed on to consumers. Indian purchases of Russian crude declined by around 24 per cent in August from July to the lowest level since January, with refiners expecting volumes to drop further amid rising rates of Russian benchmark Urals grade, substantial stocks at refiners, and planned maintenance at Indian refineries, according to ship tracking data and industry officials. Shipments of Russian oil to India dropped to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in August from 2.1 million bpd in July, the steepest month-on-month drop, according to loading data from London-based market intelligence provider Vortexa and Paris-based market intelligence agency Kpler. Volumes in August were the lowest since purchases of 1.4 million barrels per day in January. "The decline in August is largely driven by lower Russian Urals supplies, with the crude's narrowing discounts to Brent possibly dampening Indian refiners' appetite as well," said Serena Huang, an analyst at Vortexa. European crude benchmark Brent climbed to as high as $87.8 a barrel last month from $78 a barrel in mid-July before settling at around $86 a barrel. The surge in Brent rates has sent Urals higher. Urals is trading over $60 a barrel on a free-on-board (FOB) basis, a ceiling set by the Western powers on Russian oil sales, beyond which stringent sanctions apply. Moreover, Russian crude output cuts have increased demand for Urals, more than halving the discounts from $10-$13 a barrel early this year. Indian refiners need at least $7-$8 a barrel as discounts on Russian Urals. "$3-$4 a barrel is not workable," a Mumbai-based refiner said. "The economics of current levels of Russian discounts is not favourable to accelerated purchases of the crude," said R Ramachandran, a Mumbai-based oil industry consultant and former refining head of state-run Bharat Petroleum. "If refiners can get access to Russian crude at an attractive value, the scenarios will change. But that seems unlikely unless there are further output cuts in the Middle East or there is a slowdown in Chinese crude purchases," Ramachandran said.
India will buy oil from anyone who offers the ‘lowest possible prices’ – minister -- India will buy oil from all sources that offer it at the “lowest possible prices”, the country’s oil minister told broadcaster ET Now on Wednesday. India has been buying crude oil from Russia, which is now its top oil supplier, at discounted prices since the west imposed import curbs following its invasion of Ukraine last year. “We are very clear in our minds that we will buy oil from wherever we can get it as long as it is delivered to our point of importation at our ports at the lowest possible price,” Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said. India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer and consumer, gets more than 80% of its oil from overseas. Asked about rupee trade with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the minister said that the transactions in the oil sector were “very minimum”. The two countries had agreed to facilitate trade in rupees instead of dollars in July. “We have a rupee-dirham arrangement with the UAE but the transactions in the oil sector are very minimum,” he said.
Cargo vessel runs aground in waters off Batangas City — A cargo vessel ran aground in waters off Batangas City on Wednesday (August 30), the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) reported. The PCG-Southern Tagalog District said Thursday that LCT (landing craft, tank) Golden Bella was traveling from Brooke’s Point in Palawan to Manila when it encountered strong winds and moderate to rough seas. While looking for an anchorage area, the vessel ran aground in a rocky seabed in the shallow waters off Barangay (village) Ilijan at around 2:28 p.m., the PCG said. An LCT is a specially designed ship for hauling cargo, trucks, containers, building materials, cars, and passengers. The PCG’s Marine Environmental Protection Force and Special Operations Unit in Southern Tagalog were immediately dispatched to the area to assess the situation and provide necessary assistance. All 12 crew members were found safe. The report said the vessel has a fuel load of 13,456 liters of diesel and 173 liters of lube oil. However, the PCG said no oil spill has been detected in the area so far.
PCG assures oil spill from sunken fishing boat in Batangas will not affect coastal communities -- THE Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) in Batangas assured that an oil spill from the sunken fishing vessel Anita DJ II will not cause any serious threats to the coastal communities of Calatagan, Batangas. Fishing Boat Anita DJ II capsizes on Sunday, Aug. 27, 2023, off the waters of Calatagan in Batangas. The fishing vessel capsized last Sunday, August 27, off the waters of Calatagan while underway from Navotas Port to Palawan. All the crew of the ill-fated boat were rescued by the PCG. In a separate interview with Bangon Bayan, Commo. Geronomo Tuvilla, commander of Coast Guard District Southern Tagalog, said that the fishing boat was loaded with 70,000 liters of marine diesel oil, a type of fuel oil that easily evaporates in sunlight. "It dissipates easier with sunlight and the movement of sea and wind," Tuvilla said. He added that while the oil sheen has a foul smell, the threat level is low as compared to industrial fuel oil. "This will not cause a threat to the shore," he said. Tuvilla disclosed that the PCG has already deployed ships with water cannons to hasten the dissipation of the oil sheen. He added that the command has also coordinated with the local government units of Batangas and nearby resort owners to prepare should the oil sheen reach the shores. "We are ready for any eventualities from this oil spill. But there is no need to panic because the threat level of marine diesel oil is very low," he said. Tuvilla said that the PCG released a Notice to Mariners to avoid passing through the area where Anita DJ II capsized. "There are fish nets and other floating debris that could hamper the safe navigation of ships, so we released a Notice to Mariners," he explained.
Nigeria Records 168 Oil Spills in Eight Months - The National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) has disclosed that Nigeria recorded 168 incidents of oil spills as oil and gas companies operating in the country spilt 5,520 barrels of crude oil between January and August 2023. NOSDRA, in its latest oil spill data for the period under review, noted that the spill occurred in the facilities of 23 oil firms. Out of these firms, Shell Petroleum Development Company recorded the highest spill volume of 4,340 barrels of crude oil in 43 spill incidents, representing 78.62 per cent of total crude oil spilt in the period under review. Heritage Energy Operational Service Limited followed as it spilt 24 323.20 barrels of crude oil in 24 incidents, while Nigerian Agip Oil Company (NAOC) spilt 248.86 barrels of crude oil in 38 incidents. In six spill incidents, Heirs Holding Oil and Gas Limited spilt 128.10 barrels of crude oil; Seplat Petroleum Development Company spilt 104.88 barrels of crude oil in seven incidents; National Petroleum Development Company (NPDC) spilt 92.33 barrels in 16 incidents, while Enageed Resources Limited polluted the environment with the spillage of 72 barrels of crude oil in three spill incidents. NOSDRA disclosed that Rivers State was the worst hit state with oil spillage, as 2,780 barrels of crude oil was spilt in the state in 67 incidents, followed by Delta, with 2,623 barrels of crude oil spilt in 76 incidents, while Edo, Imo, Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom recorded spill volumes of 70.04 barrels, 22.30 barrels, 18.39 barrels and 1.06 barrels, respectively. The environmental regulator further stated that most of the spill incidents were recorded from crude oil pipelines, with 3,113 barrels of crude oil spilt from the pipelines in 114 incidents. It added that in eight incidents, 1,951 barrels of crude were spilt by oil companies from the wellhead, while spills from flow lines, flow stations and trunk lines stood at 117.7 barrels, 110.03 barrels and 106.13 barrels, respectively. Furthermore, NOSDRA reported that 5,122 barrels of crude oil, representing 92.78 per cent of oil spilt in the eight-month period, was a result of theft and sabotage, while 228.22 barrels of crude oil spilt in 16 incidents were due to corrosion. It added that 2,402 barrels of crude oil were spilt on land, 2,378 barrels of crude oil were spilt on swampy terrain, and 525.01 barrels of crude oil were spilt on seasonal swampy terrain.
British Petroleum plans to invest $3.5 bln in Egypt's oil and gas sector - British Petroleum (BP) announced that it plans to invest about US$3.5 billion into the Egyptian oil and gas sector over a period of three years. The CEO of BP Bernard Looney praised his company’s strategic partnership with Egypt, spanning over 60 years. He also hailed the development achievements Egypt has made, especially in the field of infrastructure which have positively impacted its investments – particularly in the renewable energy sectors. During a Monday meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo, he also praised the ongoing regional cooperation projects in the eastern Mediterranean for gas transportation and liquefaction, as well as in electrical linkage. Looney presented during the meeting the company’s investment plans with its partners in Egypt for the next three years within the fields of research, exploration and development in the presence of Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Tarek al-Mulla, presidential spokesperson Ahmed Fahmy said. Fahmy added in a press statement that Sisi expressed his appreciation for the growing volume of BP investments in Egypt, and its contribution to the exploration and production of gas and oil. These enhance efforts to transform Egypt into a regional hub for energy production. Sisi assured that the government attaches great importance to the role played by international companies and the private sector in the fields of oil, gas and renewable energy. He affirmed Egypt’s desire to enhance existing cooperation with BP, especially in reducing emissions and energy transition, in addition to green hydrogen production.
Oman LNG signs supply deals with Shell and OQ - Oman LNG has signed two binding term-sheet agreements to supply LNG to Shell International Trading Middle East FZE and to OQ Trading. According to the agreement, Oman LNG is expected to supply 0.8 million metric tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG to Shell International Trading Middle East for 10 years starting from 2025, and 0.75 mtpa for 4 years starting from 2026. With these latest agreements, Oman LNG has committed to 10.4 mtpa of its output so far this year, covering a total commitment of 80 mtpa over a period of 10 years. Speaking on the signing, CEO of Oman LNG, Hamed al Naamany, shared the following: “The term sheet agreements contribute to global energy security and sustain our position as a trusted supplier of reliable energy, where it facilitates business opportunities, and complements our objectives to establish partnerships and add value to the local economy. Additionally, this Global Marketing Campaign comes as an exceptional milestone in Oman LNG’s rather stellar history despite the unprecedented volatile markets due to the geopolitical events and post covid challenges.” Earlier this year, Shell International Trading Middle East FZE signed a a term sheet for the offtake of 0.8 mtpa of LNG from Oman LNG, for a period of ten years starting from 2025, making the corporation the biggest “off-taker from Oman LNG beyond 2024”. Earlier this month, Oman LNG penned an agreement to supply one mtpa of LNG to German firm Secure Energy for Europe (SEFE) in what has been referred to as the first LNG agreement between the two nations.
Saudi’s oil exports plunge to over two-year low in August - Saudi Arabia’s crude exports plummeted to a more than two-year low last month as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies slashed production to boost oil prices. Shipments from the world’s biggest exporter of crude oil dropped to approximately 5.6 million barrels a day, the lowest since March 2021, Bloomberg reported on Friday. August’s oil exports are down from 6.3 million barrels a day in July. Flows to China recorded multiyear lows, falling to 1.3 million barrels per day, the lowest since June 2020. Exports to most destinations, including the US also hit multiyear lows, with flows to Japan and South Korea dropping to the lowest levels since 2017, when Bloomberg began tracking the data. Saudi Arabia and Russia recently announced they would slash oil supply. The kingdom pledged in July a cut of 1 million barrels a day until the end of August, while Russia aimed to cut supplies by 500,000 barrels per day in the same month. The supply cut is meant to “reinforce the precautionary efforts made by OPEC+ countries with the aim of supporting the stability and balance of oil markets,” the Saudi Press Agency quoted a Ministry of Energy source as saying.
Russia in Talks With OPEC+ on Extending Oil-Export Cuts - -- Russia is discussing with its OPEC+ partners the possibility of extending oil-export cuts into October, but no decision has been made so far, Interfax reported, citing Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak in Moscow. The decision will depend on the market situation, Novak said according to the state news agency Tass, which was reporting from the same event. The statement from the nation’s top energy official and main negotiator with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries comes as global crude markets are tightening, but the summer price rally has stalled on mounting concern over China’s economic growth. Saudi Arabia, the de-facto OPEC leader and Russia’s close ally in the oil market, is expected to extend its own voluntary oil production cuts for another month, according to traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Russia is committed to its earlier pledge of cutting exports in September by 300,000 barrels a day compared to the average May to June level, Novak said, giving the baseline for the reductions for the first time. Earlier the nation pledged to curb its crude exports by 500,000 barrels a day in August. While Novak didn’t provide the baseline figure, industry data seen by Bloomberg show that the country exported an average of 4.86 million barrels a day from May to June by sea and pipelines. In July, crude supplies to foreign markets averaged some 4.28 million barrels a day, or about 574,000 barrels a day below the baseline. The bulk of those barrels were redirected to the domestic market as Russian refineries completed seasonal maintenance and increased their oil processing last month. The nation’s producers raised crude supplies to refineries by some 303,000 barrels a day, compared with the average from May to June, to 5.66 million barrels a day in July, according to Bloomberg calculations based on industry data. The exports and refinery data indicate Russia’s crude production in July was lower than the average from May to June. Russia complied with its obligation of keeping a cap on its crude production in August, Novak said. The nation has pledged to reduce output by 500,000 barrels a day and keep it at that level through 2024.
Russia’s Answer To The U.S. Shale Boom Takes A Huge Step Forward --Despite multi-layered international sanctions on Russia following its 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin’s ‘special energy project’ – developing the country’s massive gas and oil resources in the Arctic – took a major step forward last week as it was confirmed that the flagship Arctic LNG 2 will begin operations before the end of this year. Over and above the significance of Russia being able to complete such a financially and technologically challenging project despite swingeing sanctions in place against it, Arctic LNG 2 is of vital importance to Russia for several wider reasons. Given the scale and scope of Russia’s broader plans for the Arctic, it is also vitally important to the U.S. and its allies how Russia proceeds there. One reason why the Arctic is so important to Putin is the sheer size of its gas and oil reserves, much of them in Russian territory. According to various Russian authorities, the country’s Arctic sector comprises over 35,700 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas and over 2,300 million metric tons of oil and condensate, the majority of which are in the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas, lying on the south side of the Kara Sea. These may well be underestimates, according to a senior source in the European Union energy security complex exclusively spoken to by OilPrice.com recently. Within this, Putin has long believed that Russia’s presence in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market does not reflect its enormous presence in the broader world gas and oil markets, and that the perfect foundation stone for this to be addressed is the Arctic LNG projects, as analysed in full in my new book on the new global oil market order. According to comments from Putin, the next 10 years or so will witness a dramatic expansion in the extraction of these Arctic resources, and a corollary build-out of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as the primary transport route to monetise these resources in the global oil and gas markets.The key market into which much of this Arctic gas and oil output will flow will be China - the second reason why the region is so important to Putin. Over the past 30 years, there has been a complete switch in the power relationship between the two former great Communist powers, with China now being the more dominant partner. Crucially, though, for Russia, it still holds some power with China in the matter of its gas and oil flows to the country. These flows mean that Moscow can continue to count on the military and political force-multiplier effect of Beijing as a major presence in the Asia Pacific theatre of potential conflict, if not directly in the European one. Given Russia’s poor performance in the Ukraine war to date, this force multiplier effect of its relationship with China has never been more important to it. In precisely this vein, around the same time as the invasion of Ukraine, Russian state gas giant Gazprom signed a deal to supply 10 bcm per year (bcm/y) of gas to the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). This built on another 30-year deal between the two companies signed in 2014 for 38 bcm/y and this in turn was a part of, but significantly bolstered, the ‘Power of Siberia’ pipeline project – managed on the Russian side by Gazprom and on the China side by CNPC – that was launched in December 2019. The third reason why the Arctic LNG projects are so important to Putin is that LNG is the world’s emergency gas form, as was dramatically highlighted again most recently in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as also analysed in full in my new book on the new global oil market order. Unlike gas supplies delivered through pipelines, LNG does not require years of laying pipelines and building out corollary supportive infrastructure. It also does not require extensive, time-consuming negotiations over complex contracts. Instead, it can be picked up quickly in the spot market and shipped expeditiously to wherever it is required. With the world increasingly needing LNG supplies, given the spike in demand for them in Europe after flows from Russia’s gas pipelines stalled, Putin knows that increasing Russia’s own LNG supply capabilities has never been more geopolitically important to it. The importance that Russia is placing on being able to move LNG quickly to its key target markets of China, and in Asia more broadly, is underlined by the fact that it has pushed hard with the build-out of its trans-shipment LNG facility on the Russian Far East coast in Kamchatka and its Northern Sea Route as well.A final key reason at play in Russia’s Arctic gas and oil drive is its capacity to subvert the U.S. dollar-based hegemony in the energy market, as also analysed in my new book, particularly as it features one of the world’s biggest oil and gas producers and one of its biggest buyers. Very early in the Arctic LNG projects’ history, Novatek’s chief executive officer, Leonid Mikhleson, said that future sales to China denominated in renminbi were under consideration. This was in line with his comments on the prospect of further U.S. sanctions - following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 - that they would only accelerate the process of Russia trying to switch away from U.S. dollar-centric oil and gas trading. “This has been discussed for a while with Russia’s largest trading partners such as India and China, and even Arab countries are starting to think about it... If they do create difficulties for our Russian banks then all we have to do is replace dollars,” he said. Such a strategy was tested in 2014, when the state-run Gazprom Neft tried trading of cargoes of crude oil in Chinese yuan and roubles with China and Europe, to reduce Russia’s dependence on crude trading in dollars, in response to the initial Western sanctions against Russia’s energy sector.
Iran Summons Swiss Diplomat Over Iranian Oil Stolen by US - On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said Tehran summoned a Swiss diplomat over the discharging of a tanker carrying Iranian oil that was seized by the United States. Kanaani said Iran summoned the chargé d’affaires at the Swiss embassy to express “strong objection” to the move to Switzerland, which acts as a mediator between the US and Iran.“The subject of the seizure of an Iranian oil consignment by the US … is a completely unproductive action,” Kanaani said. He noted how the US was expressing interest in a renewed nuclear deal while also increasing sanctions and seizing Iranian oil shipments. The tanker Suez Rajan was estimated to be carrying 800,000 barrels of Iranian oil and was forced by the US to sail to Texas instead of China under the pretext of sanctions enforcement. The Suez Rajan transferred the cargo to another tanker, MR Euphrates, which is currently moored in Houston.The Suez Rajan was stuck off the coast of Galveston for months as American companies were hesitant to unload the cargo due to fears of Iranian reprisals. The US seizure of the Suez Rajan in April provoked the Iranian seizure of two tankers in the Persian Gulf.The US responded to the Iranian seizures by increasing its military presence in the region, including sending over 3,000 US Marines and Navy sailors as part of an Amphibious Readiness Group/Marine Expeditionary Unit. The US is also considering putting armed troops on commercial vessels.
Report: US, Israel to Conduct Joint Drills Simulating Attacks on Iran - The US and Israel will simulate striking Iranian nuclear facilities as part of a series of joint military exercises that will be held in the coming months, The Times of Israel reported Wednesday, citing Israeli TV.Back in January, the US and Israel conducted the Juniper Oak exercises, which were the largest-ever joint drills between the two nations. The Israeli military said Juniper Oak was just the first of a series of drills that the US and Israel will hold this year.Israel’s Channel 12 reported one of the upcoming drills would simulate Israel facing a multi-front missile attack that will involve the US deployment of Patriot missile systems. Another drill will rehearse a joint US-Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.The plan to simulate attacks on Iran has not been publicly confirmed by the US or Israel, but the two nations have previously rehearsed bombing Iran, including during drills that were held over the Mediterranean Sea in November 2022.While nuclear facilities would be the target in the simulated drills, there’s no sign Iran is looking to build a nuclear weapon, which was affirmed by a recent US intelligence report. Often missing from the conversation about Iran’s civilian nuclear program is the fact that Israel has a secret nuclear weapons program and an arsenal of nukes that the US does not acknowledge exists.The report comes amid heightened tensions between the US and Iran in the Persian Gulf. The US seizure of a tanker carrying Iranian oil in April provoked two Iranian tanker seizures, and the US responded by beefing up its military presence in the region.
Israeli Airstrikes Put Syria's Aleppo Airport Out of Service - Israeli airstrikes on Syria targeted the Aleppo airport early Monday morning, knocking it out of service, Syria’s SANA news agency reported.“At about 4:30 a.m. on Monday, the Israeli enemy carried out an aerial act of aggression from the direction of the Mediterranean Sea, west of Lattakia, targeting Aleppo Airport,” a military source told SANA. No casualties were reported in the attack, but the source said it caused material damage to the airport runway, putting it out of service. The strikes mark the fifth time since September 2022 that Israeli airstrikes shut down the Aleppo airport and the fourth time this year. Aleppo was devastated by the earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria on February 6, and the city’s airport became a vital channel for aid. But that did not stop Israeli attacks. Israeli airstrikes put the Aleppo airport out of commission twice in March and again in May. Monday’s airstrikes marked at least the 23rd time that Israel bombed Syria this year. The last known strike hit targets near Damascus on August 21, wounding at least one Syrian soldier.
US Launches Airstrike in Somalia, Claims 13 al-Shabaab Killed - The US launched an airstrike in Somalia early in the morning on Saturday, US Africa Command (AFRICOM) said in a press release. AFRICOM said the strike was launched about 28 miles northwest of the southern port city of Kismaayo. The command said its “initial assessment” found 13 al-Shabaab fighters were killed and no civilians were harmed. However, the Pentagon is notorious for undercounting civilian casualties, especially in Somalia. AFRICOM said the strike was launched in support of the US-backed Mogadishu-based government, whose forces were engaged with al-Shabaab on the ground. The last known US airstrike in Somalia was conducted by AFRICOM on August 15. US airstrikes in Somalia escalated in 2022, the year President Biden ordered the deployment of up to 500 troops to the country, and the US-backed government launched an offensive against al-Shabaab. The US military hypes the threat of al-Shabaab due to its size and al-Qaeda affiliation, but it’s widely believed the group does not have ambitions outside of Somalia. AFRICOM describes al-Shabaab as “the largest and most kinetically active al-Qaeda network in the world and has proved both its will and capability to attack partner and US forces and threaten US security interests.” Al-Shabaab was born out of a US-backed Ethiopian invasion in 2006 that toppled the Islamic Courts Union, a coalition of Muslim groups who briefly held power in Mogadishu after ousting CIA-backed warlords. Al-Shabaab was the radical offshoot of the Islamic Courts Union. The group’s first recorded attack was in 2007, and it wasn’t until 2012 that al-Shabaab pledged loyalty to al-Qaeda after years of fighting the US and its proxies.
US Knew Saudis Were Slaughtering African Migrants at Border But Kept Quiet - The Biden administration has been aware since last year that Saudi border guards were slaughtering African migrants on Saudi Arabia’s border with Yemen but kept quiet about the killings, The New York Times reported on Saturday. Sources told the Times that American diplomats were made aware of the news last fall, around the time the US was publicly condemning Riyadh for agreeing to OPEC+ oil production cuts. The administration did not make any public comments about the reported killings. The administration received more details about the atrocities in December 2022 when the UN presented information about Saudi forces shooting, shelling, and abusing Ethiopian migrants at the border, but the US still kept quiet. After Human Rights Watch released a report last week that said Saudi border guards killed hundreds of Ethiopian migrants between March 2022 and June 2023, the Biden administration insisted that it “raised concerns” with Riyadh about the report. For their part, Riyadh denied the allegations.Last month, the Mixed Migration Center (MMC) released a similar reportthat said Saudi border forces killed at least 800 Ethiopian migrants, and over 1,700 were injured. The Saudi guards used mortar shells and small arms to attack the Ethiopians. There were also reports of rape and torture.According to The Washington Post, Saudi border guards are trained by the US as part of military cooperation between the two nations. The mass slaughter of civilians by US-backed Saudi forces is nothing new, as Riyadh frequently targeted civilians in its war in Yemen using US-made bombs and aircraft. In January 2022, Saudi airstrikes hit a migrant detention center in Sadaa, Yemen, killing at least 91 civilians and injuring 236 more.Since last fall, when President Biden vowed “consequences” for Riyadh over the oil cuts, his administration has backed off on its criticism of the kingdom as it seeks to clinch a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal. Saudi Arabia is demanding new security guarantees from the US as a condition for normalization that could go as far as NATO’s Article 5, which would mean Washington treating attacks on the kingdom as attacks on the US.
BRICS Invites Six Countries to Join Bloc in Major Expansion -BRICS has invited six new members to join in the most dramatic expansion of the bloc since it was formed, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced Thursday at the conclusion of the three-day BRICS summit in Johannesburg. Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Argentina, Egypt, and Ethiopia were invited to join BRICS as full members starting in 2024. The admission of the nations will more than double the size of BRICS, which currently includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.The five BRICS nations account for over 40% of the world’s population, and the bloc is viewed as a counterweight to the US-led global economic order. The list of invitees is significant as it includes some US allies, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and also Iran, which is heavily sanctioned by the US.US sanctions have spurred the growth of an alternate global financial system and de-dollarization efforts, especially in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia has found new markets for its oil in India and China since the US-led Western sanctions campaign cut off most Russian energy exports to Europe.The agreement to invite new countries is significant also because it wasn’t clear if India would be on board with the expansion. While becoming a significant buyer of Russian oil, India has also been expanding military ties with the US, as Washington views New Delhi as a key to its strategy against China in the Asia Pacific.Tensions have been high between China and India over their disputed border in the Himalayas since the 2020 Galwan Valley clashes, which left at least 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers dead. The US took advantage of the tensions and signed a new military pact with India to help with the surveillance of Chinese troops near the border, allowing the US to provide India with intelligence during a skirmish in 2022.Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed the disputed border, known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC), on the sidelines of the BRICS summit on Thursday. According to The South China Morning Post, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra said Modi had expressed concerns to Xi and that the two leaders “agreed to direct the relevant officials to intensify efforts at expeditious disengagement and de-escalation.”
Kremlin says Prigozhin crash may have been ‘deliberate’ --The Kremlin on Wednesday said the plane crash that killed the head of the mercenary Wagner Group could have been done deliberately.Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary for Russian President Vladimir Putin, told reporters “deliberate wrongdoing” is among the causes Russian investigators are considering in thecrash last week that killed Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin, The Associated Press reported.“It is obvious that different versions are being considered, including the version — you know what we are talking about — let’s say, a deliberate atrocity,” Peskov told reporters when asked about the investigation, according to Reuters.Prigozhin was killed when a flight he was taking from Moscow to St. Petersburg went down under mysterious causes last week. All 10 people on board were killed in the crash.The Wagner Group leader in July led a short-lived march against the Russian military, and speculation he could be assassinated has since run rampant.U.S. officials, including President Biden, have openly hinted at the possibility that Putin could be behind Prigozhin’s death. The Kremlin has denied involvement in the crash.
Did Putin kill Yevgeny Prigozhin? Probes show Russians are skeptical - The Russian people are skeptical over the circumstances of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death, according to Western-based survey groups that are probing Russian public opinion and gauging the strength of the Kremlin to shape the public narrative. Prigozhin’s violent death in a plane crash was hardly a surprise given his short-lived armed rebellion against Russian President Vladimir Putin. Critics and enemies of Putin in Russia have a tendency to end up dead or in prison. Yet many of the circumstances of Prigozhin’s death in the Aug. 23 crash are a mystery, and Russians themselves appear uncertain over what happened. President Biden has suggested Prigozhin’s death has Putin’s fingerprints on it, and U.S. officials have said they suspect a planned explosion on Prigozhin’s plane caused the aircraft to fall from the sky on a clear, sunny day, killing all 10 people on board. But groups monitoring Russian public opinion say narratives on social media and in Russian news articles vary widely between viewing the plane crash as an accident or a sinister attack. Much of that has to do with the Kremlin’s own efforts, Jonathan Teubner, CEO and founder of FilterLabs.AI, said in an interview with The Hill. “What we kind of saw was, throughout the 23rd and into the 24th, there was this really concerted effort particularly between news media and social media, which is a pretty standard sign of Kremlin info-ops, and they’re pushing varieties of ‘it was an accident,’” Teubner said. “And, actually, I think the interesting story here is how quickly it fades and just goes into a general mix.”
Russia accuses Ukraine of biggest drone attack of war - Russia on Wednesday accused Ukraine of its largest drone attack in the war so far, saying Ukrainian drones attacked six regions, including a major airport in western Russia.The most devastating attack struck in the Pskov region of northwestern Russia, which borders Latvia and Estonia, at the Princess Olga Pskov International Airport. Videos shared by Pskov Governor Mikhail Vedernikov showed a burst of flames erupting in the distance after the drones hit the airport just after midnight Wednesday.Vedernikov said there were no victims but did not have specifics for the number of vehicles, aircraft and structures damaged by the attack. The regional governor has canceled flights out of the airport while damage is being assessed.According to the Russian channel Baza, two aircraft were destroyed and four more were damaged at the Pskov airport.Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Wednesday said the drone strikes were terrorist attacks “targeted precisely at civilian facilities.”“We are continuing and will continue the special military operation in order to eradicate this threat to us,” Peskov said, according to Russian state-run media outlet Tass. Ukrainian drones also reportedly attempted to strike across the regions of Orlov, Bryansk, Ryazan and Kaluga, as well as the Moscow region.Russia’s Defense Ministry claims it thwarted all of the attacks, including shooting down three drones over Bryansk. The Ministry has remained silent on the drone attack on Pskov, according to its Telegram channel, which has frequent updates on the war.
Russia Says Ukrainian Drone Attacks Not Possible Without Help from the West - Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Wednesday that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia would not be possible without help from the West, Russia’s TASS news agency reported. “Zakharova stressed that the Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) would not have been able to travel such a distance without information feeds from Western satellites,” TASS reported. The comments came after drones targeted six Russian regions early Wednesday in what is said to be the largest Ukrainian drone attack on the country since Russia invaded Ukraine last year. One of the Russian cities that was targeted was Pskov, which is about 20 miles from the border of NATO member Estonia and over 400 miles from Ukraine. The massive drone attack came after The Washington Post reported that the US expected Ukrainian operations inside Russia to increase. The Economist reported that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia use intelligence “often from Western partners.” Zakharova added that the drone attacks will not “go unpunished” and criticized attacks on “peaceful civilian targets.” The Economist report also said that the purpose of the drone attacks is to have a “psychological impact” on “ordinary Russians” not affected by the war.
Ukraine Blasts Pope Francis for Address to Russian Youth - Ukrainian officials have sharply criticized Pope Francis for an address he gave to young Russian Catholics, accusing him of spreading “imperialist propaganda” for saying Russians should be proud of their heritage.“Never forget your heritage. You are the descendants of great Russia: the great Russia of saints, rulers, the great Russia of Peter I, Catherine II, that empire – educated, great culture and great humanity. Never give up on this heritage,” the pope said in a video address to a Catholic youth assembly in St. Petersburg last week.“You are descendants of the great Mother Russia, step forward with it. And thank you – thank you for your way of being, for your way of being Russian,” he added.Oleh Nikolenko, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, slammed the pope’s speech. “This is the kind of imperialist propaganda, ‘spiritual bonds’ and the ‘need’ to save ‘Great Mother Russia’ which the Kremlin uses to justify the murder of thousands of Ukrainians and the destruction of hundreds of Ukrainian towns and villages,” he said.On Wednesday, the Vatican responded to the Ukrainian criticism, saying it was clear that the pope was not pushing any sort of imperialist agenda.“In the words of greeting addressed to several young Russian Catholics a few days ago, as is clear from the context in which he pronounced them, the Pope intended to encourage young people to preserve and promote what is positive in Russia’s great cultural and spiritual heritage, and certainly not to exalt imperialistic logics and governmental personalities, cited to indicate certain historical periods of reference,” said Matteo Bruni, director of the Holy See Press Office.Ukrainian officials have criticized the pope at other times during the war. Last year, Pope Francis expressed sadness over the death of Darya Dugina, daughter of the Russian philosopher Alexander Dugun. Dugina was killed by a car bomb outside of Moscow in an operation carried out by Ukrainian intelligence.“I think of that poor girl blown up by a bomb under the seat of her car in Moscow,” Francis said Dugina’s killing. “Innocents pay the price of war.”
BOE Chief Economist Says Rates Must Stay ‘Sufficiently High’ for Some Time-- The Bank of England’s chief economist said he preferred a “Table Mountain” profile for UK interest rates where they remained moderately high for some time rather than escalating rapidly and then dropping quickly. Huw Pill, speaking at the South African Central Reserve Bank biennial conference in Cape Town, said there were multiple different paths that monetary policy could take in order to get inflation down to 2%. One was more like the Swiss mountain Matterhorn, he said, where rates would rise quickly and steeply in order to restrict demand but then would fall rapidly as inflation dipped back to target. But Pill said he was more in favor of a Table Mountain profile for UK rates, in a reference to the flat-topped attraction that overlooks Cape Town. The remarks are a signal for how officials are thinking ahead of their next decision on Sept. 21. Investors anticipate a quarter-point increase in the BOE’s base rate, now 5.25%, at that meeting and then at least one more by the end of the year. Pill said UK interest rates need to remain “sufficiently high for sufficiently long” to get inflation down sustainably to the 2% target. There was also a risk that the BOE would over-tighten monetary policy in its battle to get inflation down, Pill said, risking unnecessary damage to the economy. But he said that the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee needed to “see the job through,” and repeatedly noted that core inflation was “stubbornly high,” which implied that inflation is being further fueled by second-round effects such as workers bidding up their wages. On getting inflation back down to 2%, from its current level of 6.8%, Pill said: “We certainly need to ensure that we do enough with policy to make that the case.” He added that monetary policy “is in restrictive territory,” and that there “is the possibility of doing too much and inflicting unnecessary damage on employment and growth.” “But at least in my personal view, at present, the emphasis is still on ensuring that we are, in the words of the MPC’s last statement ... sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to ensure that we have that lasting return to target.”
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