global glass onion: week ending Sep 23

Fed’s Balance Sheet Liabilities: RRPs Plunge, Reserves Rise after Bank Panic, Currency in Circulation Dips after Pandemic Spike, TGA Gets Refilled --by Wolf Richter - The daily measure of Overnight Reverse Repurchase agreements (ON RRPs) at the Fed have plunged to $1.40 trillion as of Friday. This is down by 45%, or by $1.152 trillion, from the one-day-wonder peak on December 31, 2022. Under these RRPs, the Fed takes in cash and hands out collateral (Treasury securities). RRPs are a liability for the Fed because they’re cash that the Fed owes its counterparties. The counterparties are mostly US money market funds, but also banks, and government-sponsored enterprises (Federal Home Loan Banks, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, etc.). These counterparties use ON RRPs to park their extra cash risk-free at the Fed, and earn interest. As of the rate hike in July, the Fed pays them 5.3% in interest. This 5.3% is less than what the Fed pays banks on their reserve balances (5.4%), so banks don’t use RRPs much. For money market funds (MMFs), ON RRPs are a good risk-free deal, but they pay a little less interest than Treasury bills (around 5.5%). And MMFs have been yanking their cash out of these RRPs, to load up on T-bills. The Fed started paying interest on RRPs in the spring of 2021, minuscule rates of interest at the time, at first 0.05% APR and then 0.1% APR because policy rates were near 0%. It did so because there was so much liquidity in the financial system as a result of the then still ongoing QE, chasing after everything, that T-bill yields dipped into the negative. Treasury money market funds that primarily invest in T-bills were threatened by these negative yields; they could cause the MMFs to “break the buck” where the Net Asset Value of the fund drops below $1, which could trigger a run on the fund, forced selling by the fund, the collapse of a fund, contagion from there, etc., etc., you know the financial panic routine. The Fed’s solution was to pay a little interest on RRPs, and MMFs flocked to them, and with each rate hike starting in March 2022, the Fed paid more on RRPs. In addition, MMFs switched some of their cash that they need for liquidity reasons from their bank accounts to RRPs, since banks paid 0% interest, and even now are stingy with the interest they pay. This shift from banks to RRPs via the MMFs caused the banks’ reserve balances to fall starting when QE ended. More in a moment. The government’s Office of Financial Research publishes RRP balances by money-market funds on a monthly basis, unfortunately with a big delay. The most recent release was for July 31, by which time MMF participation in RRPs had dropped to $1.75 trillion. The biggest providers of money market funds lead the list: About 29% of these RRPs were with Fidelity’s funds ($508 billion); 10% were with Vanguard’s funds ($172 billion); 8.4% were with JP Morgan’s funds ($148 billion); and 7.9% were with Blackrock’s funds ($138 billion): The Fed also offers RRPs to “foreign official” accounts, where other central banks can park their dollar cash. The weekly balance sheet of the Fed – the latest was released Thursday afternoon – shows only balances as of Wednesday every week, not daily balances. So these are balances through Wednesday, which have not yet captured the las two days of the plunge in RRPs. Foreign official RRPs dropped to $289 billion, down by $94 billion, or by 25%, from the peak in January 2023 (green line). The chart also shows the ON RRPs (red line) as of Thursday’s balance sheet ($1.546 trillion). Since then, ON RRPs have plunged by another $145 billion, which is reflected in the daily chart above. Both combined – ON RRPs and foreign official RRPs – have plunged by $803 billion, or by 33%, from the weekly Wednesday peak last September: Every balance sheet has assets, liabilities, and capital, where: Assets = liabilities + capital. The Fed’s capital is limited by Congress, and it changes only in small ways. But its assets and liabilities change massively. On the asset side of the balance sheet, QT is proceeding at a record pace; the Fed has shed $867 billion in assets since the peak, now down to $8.099 trillion. On the liabilities-and-capital side, the Fed has shed $868 billion in liabilities since the peak in April, now down to $8.056 trillion; and it increased its capital by $1 billion to $43 billion. But there have also been massive shifts between liabilities, with some rising and others falling that we’ll get to in a moment.

Fed rate decision September 2023: Leaves rates unchanged --The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in a decision released Wednesday, while also indicating it still expects one more hike before the end of the year and fewer cuts than previously indicated next year.That final increase, if realized, would do it for this cycle, according to projections the central bank released at the end of its two-day meeting. If the Fed goes ahead with the move, it would make a full dozen hikes since the policy tightening began in March 2022. Markets had fully priced in no move at this meeting, which kept the fed funds rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in some 22 years. The rate fixes what banks charge each other for overnight lending but also spills over into many forms of consumer debt.While the no-hike was expected, there was considerable uncertainty over where the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee would go from here. Judging from documents released Wednesday, the bias appears toward more restrictive policy and a higher-for-longer approach to interest rates.That outlook weighed on the market, with the S&P 500 falling nearly 1% and the Nasdaq Composite off 1.5%. Stocks oscillated as Fed Chair Jerome Powell took questions during a news conference."We're in a position to proceed carefully in determining the extent of additional policy firming," Powell said.However, he added that the central bank would like to see more progress in its fight against inflation."We want to see convincing evidence really that we have reached the appropriate level, and we're seeing progress and we welcome that. But, you know, we need to see more progress before we'll be willing to reach that conclusion," he said.Projections released in the Fed's dot plot showed the likelihood of one more increase this year, then two cuts in 2024, two fewer than were indicated during the last update in June. That would put the funds rate around 5.1%. The plot allows members to indicate anonymously where they think rates are headed.Twelve participants at the meeting penciled in the additional hike, while seven opposed it. That put one more in opposition than at the June meeting. Recently confirmed Fed Governor Adriana Kugler was not a voter at the last meeting. The projection for the fed funds rate also moved higher for 2025, with the median outlook at 3.9%, compared with 3.4% previously.Over the longer term, FOMC members pointed to a funds rate of 2.9% in 2026. That's above what the Fed considers the "neutral" rate of interest that is neither stimulative nor restrictive for growth. This was the first time the committee provided a look at 2026. The long-run expected neutral rate held at 2.5%."Chair Powell and the Fed sent an unambiguously hawkish higher-for-longer message at today's FOMC meeting," wrote Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst. "The Fed is projecting inflation to steadily cool, while the labor market remains historically tight. But, in our view, a sustained imbalance in the labor market is more likely to keep inflation 'stuck' above target."

Fed keeps rates steady, toughens policy stance as 'soft landing' hopes grow (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday but stiffened a hawkish monetary policy stance that its officials increasingly believe can succeed in lowering inflation without wrecking the economy or leading to large job losses. The Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate may still be lifted one more time this year to a peak 5.50%-5.75% range, according to updated quarterly projections released by the U.S. central bank, and rates kept significantly tighter through 2024 than previously expected. "People hate inflation. Hate it," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference after the end of a two-day policy meeting at which central bank officials held the benchmark overnight interest rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range, but sketched a stricter policy path moving forward in an inflation fight they now see lasting into 2026. But a "solid" economy with still "strong" job growth, Powell said, will allow the central bank to keep that additional pressure on financial conditions through 2025 with much less of a cost to the economy and labor market than in previous U.S. inflation battles. Indeed, monetary policy is expected to remain slightly restrictive into 2026 while the economy continues to largely grow at its estimated trend level of around 1.8%. Even as inflation declines for the rest of 2023 and in coming years, the Fed anticipates only modest initial reductions to its policy rate. That means the expected half percentage point of rate cuts in 2024 would have the net effect of raising the inflation-adjusted "real" rate. As of June, Fed officials had expected to cut rates by a full percentage point next year. While Powell said the Fed was "in a position to proceed carefully" with future policy moves, he also made clear the jury was, to some degree, still out on the central bank's fight to contain the worst outbreak of inflation in 40 years. "We want to see convincing evidence really, that we have reached the appropriate level" of interest rates to return inflation to the Fed's 2% target, a judgment its policymakers have not yet made, Powell told reporters. Inflation by some measures remains more than double the Fed's desired level, though Powell said the pace appeared to be in decline across several key parts of the economy. Bond yields jumped after the release of the latest Fed projections and policy statement, with the 2-year Treasury note at a roughly 17-year high near 5.2%. Major U.S. stock indices fell.

In Very “Hawkish Hold,” Fed Keeps Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, Sees One More Hike in 2023, Only Two Rate Cuts in 2024, to 5.25%. QT Continues by Wolf Richter • graphs – The FOMC kept its five policy rates unchanged today, with the top of its policy rates at 5.50%, after the rate hike at its prior meeting in July. Various Fed governors have had broadly telegraphed this move in recent weeks. The Fed has hiked by 525 basis points so far in this cycle. The vote was unanimous.The shocker coming out of today’s Fed meeting was the infamous “dot plot,” where individual members of the Fed’s FOMC project the trajectory of monetary policy in the future: As before, they saw one more rate hike in 2023, to 5.75% top of range, but they slashed their rate-cut projections for 2024 by half, from four rate cuts, to just two rate cuts, ending the year 2024 at 5.25%. Higher for longer.The shocker at last year’s December meeting was that they took rate cuts off the table for 2023. And they stuck to it, and financial markets spent the first eight months of 2023 twisting Powell’s words into man-buns to come up with “Powell was dovish,” and fighting the Fed all the way, and refusing to accept the no-rate-cut scenario in 2023.With only three months and two FOMC meetings left, markets have finally thrown in the towel on rate-cut predictions for 2023. But now they’ve got a new passion; they’re gearing up to fight the Fed in 2024.Today, the Fed kept its policy rates at:

Federal funds rate target range between 5.25% and 5.5%.
Interest it pays the banks on reserves: 5.4%.
Interest it pays on overnight Reverse Repos (RRPs): 5.3%.
Interest it charges on overnight Repos: 5.5%.
Primary credit rate: 5.5% (what banks pay to borrow at the “Discount Window”).

A series of rate hikes are generally followed by plateaus before rate cuts begin. The Fed signaled that the plateau has not been reached yet, and that there may be another hike or two. And it indicated in the dot plot that when the plateau finally starts, it will be longer than previously indicated:Statement leaves the door open for additional rate hikes. The statement repeated the language of the prior statements, which leaves the door open for more rate hikes:“In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.” QT continues, with the Treasury roll-off capped at $60 billion per month, and the MBS roll-off capped at $35 billion a month.One more hike in 2023. In its updated “Summary of Economic Projections” (SEP) today, which includes the “dot plot,” the median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2023 was 5.625%, or 5.75% top of range: One more rate hike in 2023. Of the 19 participants, 12 indicated exactly one more hike; 7 indicated no hike.Two rate cuts in 2024, instead of four rate cuts projected at the June meeting. This would bring the 5.75% at the end of 2023 to 5.25% by the end of 2024, top of range.Of the 19 participants, 10 participants indicated two or fewer rate cuts in 2024 (1 saw two rate hikes). And 9 participants indicated three or more cuts.These are the projected mid-points of the target range by the end of 2024, after the 2023 hike to to 5.625%:

1 expects: 6.125% (two hikes in 2024)
1 expects: 5.625% (no cuts in 2024)
4 expect: 5.375% (1 cut)
4 expect: 5.125% (2 cuts) = median
4 expect 4.875% (3 cuts)
3 expect 4.625 (4 cuts)
2 expect 4.375 (5 cuts)

Median projections also jacked up expectations for GDP growth for 2023 to 2.1%, from the projections of 1.0% in June.Median projections for the “core PCE” price index dipped to 3.7% by the end of 2023, from 3.9% at the June meeting.What banking crisis? Today’s statement repeats the same language about the banking crisis for the third meeting in a row: That the “tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.” And it repeats that “the extent of these effects remains uncertain.”

Wall Street closes lower after Fed Chair Powell says more hikes are ahead - US stocks closed lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates steady but suggested that more hikes were on the horizon and that rates may remain higher for longer than previously expected. Central bank officials said they would hold interest rates steady at their highest rate in 22 years but predicted in their “dot plot” that there would be at least one more hike this year and that cuts in rates wouldn’t begin until June of 2024, later than previously signaled. Markets struggled to find direction as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference following the announcement that the Fed would “proceed carefully” in raising futures and that a recession remained a possibility. Yields on the US 2-year Treasury yield soared to their highest levels since 2006 as investors worried about higher rates. Tech stocks also took a hammering as fears prevailed that growth stocks would be impeded by more hikes. Oil prices, meanwhile, sank 1% from previous highs as investors worried that a softening economy would limit energy demand.

Fed's Susan Collins says rates may need to stay higher for longer --Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said further interest-rate increases are possible and borrowing costs may need to stay higher for longer than previously expected for the US central bank to achieve its 2% inflation goal. "I expect rates may have to stay higher, and for longer, than previous projections had suggested, and further tightening is certainly not off the table," Collins said Friday in remarks prepared for an event hosted by the Maine Bankers Association. Fed officials left their benchmark interest rate unchanged this week and signaled borrowing costs will likely remain at elevated levels for longer than estimated just a few months ago, after one more rate increase later this year. Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers can afford to "proceed carefully" after a series of rapid rate increases rolled out over the past 18 months. Collins, who does not vote in monetary policy decisions this year, said she "fully" supported the guidance offered in Fed officials' quarterly economic projections, and said that the current phase of policy will require "considerable patience." The US economy has so far been resilient against the Fed's historic tightening campaign, which lifted the target range for the federal funds rate from nearly zero in March 2022 to 5.25% to 5.5% in July, a 22-year high. In their latest economic forecasts, 12 of 19 Fed officials said they expect to raise rates once more this year. The forecasts also showed policymakers expect it will be appropriate to reduce the federal funds rate to 5.1% by the end of 2024, according to their median estimate, up from 4.6% when projections were last updated in June. Collins said inflation has moderated, but progress has been uneven and more time is needed to be sure price gains are on a steady downward path. While many households and businesses who built up savings or locked in lower rates on loans have been shielded against the Fed's rate increases, demand is likely to cool as those savings are spent and debt-market activity picks up, she said. The Boston Fed chief said earlier this month officials will need to be patient as they assess economic data to figure out their next steps and that further tightening may still be required. She reiterated that sentiment Friday while also noting that there are uncertainties in the economic outlook. "The risk of inflation remaining persistently high must be weighed against the risk that activity will slow more than expected," Collins said.

Fed may have to hike more to fight sticky inflation, Jamie Dimon says -- JPMorgan Chase Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon said the Federal Reserve may have to keep increasing its benchmark interest rate in the coming months to combat persistent inflation. The central bank was "a day late and a dollar short" in beginning to raise rates and the rapid increases over the last 18 months were just "catching up," Dimon said Wednesday at an event hosted by the Detroit Economic Club. Dimon spoke just before the Fed published its decision to leave rates unchanged, though officials signaled that borrowing costs will likely stay higher for longer after one more hike this year. "Odds are higher that they will have to go higher than they are today," Dimon said. "I'm talking about four months from now, six months from now — that inflation will be at 4% and it won't be coming down for a whole bunch of reasons." The central bank has spent much of the last 18 months fighting historic levels of inflation, which has decelerated in recent months. In response, the Fed has slowed the pace of rate increases after aggressively pushing the federal funds rate from near zero in early 2022 to above 5%. The longtime JPMorgan boss has been warning for more than a year that the U.S. continues to face significant headwinds, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions. In his annual letter to shareholders earlier this year, he called the landscape "unsettling." "We have a very strong economy, but don't confuse today with tomorrow," Dimon said on Wednesday. "This other stuff is kind of tomorrow, and, if and when it affects the current economy, we'll see."

Fed’s Cumulative Operating Losses Exceed $100 Billion. Rate of Weekly Losses Begins to Slow as QT Drains RRPs and Reserves -- Not that the losses matter to the Fed, but they matter to the Budget Deficit. - by Wolf Richter(see graphs) Since September 2022, the Fed has consistently booked operating losses, as the interest it pays banks on their “reserves” and the interest it pays money market funds and other counterparties on their overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ON RRPs) have overpowered the interest income from its vast but shrinking portfolio of Treasury securities and MBS that it purchased when yields were much lower than today.The cumulative loss since September 2022 reached $100.1 billion, as per the Fed’s balance sheet released last Thursday. The losses have stabilized in a wave-like pattern since late February, despite three additional rate hikes since then. And more recently, they have started to diminish. If the Fed keeps rates unchanged this week, those losses will decline further – more in a moment.The chart shows the weekly losses (green) and the four-week moving average of the weekly losses (red). In August and September so far, the weekly losses have averaged a little under $2.5 billion per week.The Fed’s losses increased with the rate hikes, as it had to pay higher interest rates on reserves and RRPs. Since the rate hike in July, the Fed has been paying 5.4% to the banks and 5.3% to the RRP counterparties.But the balances of reserves and RRPs declined as a result of QT – we discussed the Fed’s liabilities, including reserves and RRPs on Saturday – and there are now over $1 trillion less in combined balances outstanding that the Fed needs to pay interest on, compared to the peak in December 2021.So the declining combined balances of reserves and RRPs kept the interest the Fed pays in dollar terms roughly level for the past five months in a wave-like pattern. In August and September so far, the weekly losses have averaged a little less than $2.5 billion per week.As reserves and RRPs continue to fall, there will be less to pay interest on. If the rates remain around 5.5%, total losses will begin to diminish visibly over the next few months as QT continues to drain the combined balances of reserves and RRPs.RRPs may eventually return to zero as QT continues. They’ve already plunged by 45% to $1.45 trillion as of today’s New York Fed data. So interest payments to RRP counterparties are now plunging as well:Reserves might fall below $2 trillion as QT continues. They’ve already fallen by 30% from the peak, despite the recent uptick, to $3.34 trillion.The Fed creates and destroys money as a matter of routine. Because it can create money, it can never run out of money. So its losses don’t mean anything in particular for the Fed. It just accounts for its operating losses in its liability account, “Earnings Remittances due to the US Treasury” – money that it owes the US Treasury.This liability account, “Earnings Remittances due to the US Treasury,” where the Fed tracks its operating losses, has a negative value of $100.1 billion.

Q3 GDP Tracking: Around 3% -From BofA: Overall, the data flow since our last report left our 3Q and 2Q US GDP tracking unchanged at 2.9% q/q saar and 2.3% q/q saar, respectively. [Sept 22nd estimate] From Goldman: We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.2% (qoq ar). [Sept 21st estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate forreal GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.9 percent on September 19, unchanged from September 14 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 6.8 percent to 6.3 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 1.20 percentage points to 1.05 percentage points. [Sept 19th estimate]

Congrats, America We Made it! Government Debt Spikes past $33 Trillion: +$1.6 Trillion since Debt Ceiling, +$2.2 Trillion from Year Ago by Wolf Richter • (graphs) The total US national debt spiked by $1.58 trillion since the debt ceiling was lifted, and by $2.16 trillion from a year ago, to $33.04 trillion, according to the Treasury Department’s figures this afternoon.A stunning amount of new debt that is getting piled on in a stunningly short amount of time, even as the economy has been growing at decent rates! Congratulations, America This $33.03 trillion of debt is composed of two piles of Treasury securities:$6.8 trillion of nonmarketable Treasury securities. They’re not traded in the market; they’re held by US government pension funds, the Social Security Trust Fund, etc. And a portion of it is held directly by Americans in form of the popular I-bonds and the less popular EE savings bonds. This balance has remained roughly unchanged since the debt ceiling and is up by $210 billion year-over-year.$26.2 trillion in marketable securities. They’re held and traded by the global public, from regular folks to big funds and financial institutions, including central banks. The Fed is now down to $4.98 trillion, after having unloaded $783 billion under QT.Marketable securities outstanding have spiked by $1.51 trillion since the debt ceiling was lifted on June 2, a huge amount of additional issuance in three-and-a-half months, and by $1.9 trillion year-over-year.The average interest rate rose to the highest since 2011. The newly issued Treasury securities to fund the new deficits and to replace maturing securities come with higher interest rates than the securities issued years ago that are now maturing and need to be replaced.So the average interest rate paid on all interest-bearing Treasury securities rose to 2.92% at the end of August, according to the Treasury Department, the highest average rate since 2011. But wait… since 2011, the debt has more than doubled – it surged by 120% since September 2011.But this average rate is still cheap, given that T-bills now yield about 5.5%, the two-year yield is over 5.0%, and the 10-year yield is at 4.3%:This $2.2 trillion added debt over the past 12 months reflects the current tsunami of deficit-spending. Deficit spending is stimulative for the economy, so this is great news for economic growth – if that’s all you look at – but this additional demand also adds fuel to inflation, and the debt pileup is an intractable horror show for the future.If the government runs those kinds of deficits where the debt spikes by $2.2 trillion in 12 months, what will the debt do if there ever is an economic downturn, when deficits typically blow out further as outlays rise and tax receipts plunge? That was a rhetorical question.To what extent do interest payments eat up tax revenues? That’s the measure that matters the most. The measure of tax revenues in the chart below – total tax revenues minus contributions to social insurance and some other factors – is what’s available to pay for regular government expenditures, including interest expense. The ratio spiked to 36.2% in Q2 – we discussed this and other factors of the burden of interest payments here.

US careens toward government shutdown -- The crisis of the political system in the US reached a new level of intensity over the past week, with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s announcement Tuesday of an impeachment inquiry against President Joe Biden, the announcement Thursday by a Justice Department special counsel of a criminal indictment against Biden’s son, Hunter, and the growing prospect of a shutdown of the federal government when the current fiscal year ends on September 30. This takes place in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, in which the leading Republican candidate, Donald Trump, is under federal and state criminal indictment for his attempt to overturn the 2020 election. The presumptive Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, is unpopular, visibly fragile if not senile, and focused on escalating the war against Russia and preparing for military conflict with China, two nuclear powers. This is coupled with mobilizing the trade union apparatus to suppress a growing rebellion by the working class. To pay for the current and looming wars and shore up the world position of the US dollar, the American ruling class must brutally increase its exploitation of the working class, destroy millions more jobs, and gut what remains of basic social programs on which hundreds of millions of workers and young people rely. It is not accidental that the escalation of the US political crisis coincides with the United Auto Workers’ calling of a mini-strike against the Detroit Three automakers. Working directly with the auto bosses and the Biden administration, UAW President Shawn Fain is desperately trying to block an all-out strike by 150,000 US autoworkers, who are furious over the deliberate undermining of a serious fight by the union bureaucracy. On Tuesday, September 12, the day the House returned from its summer recess, McCarthy bowed to the demands of the fascist House Freedom Caucus and Trump, announcing the launching of an impeachment inquiry into alleged corrupt relations between President Biden and his son, Hunter. The latter’s shady and lucrative business dealings in both Ukraine and China while Biden was vice president are well known, as is Biden’s assistance in the efforts of Hunter to trade on his father’s position to win clients and amass consulting fees. Still, despite months of investigations by House Republicans, no hard evidence has been put forward showing that the senior Biden personally profited from his son’s operations or was directly involved. Just two weeks ago, McCarthy, lacking sufficient support among House Republicans to obtain a vote for an impeachment inquiry, had said he would not announce one on his own. But that is precisely what he did last Tuesday. Within minutes of McCarthy’s announcement, Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, a leader of the Freedom Caucus, gave a speech from the House floor calling the impeachment inquiry a mere “baby step” and threatening to lodge a “motion to vacate,” which would trigger a vote to remove McCarthy from the Speaker’s chair. Gaetz reiterated his caucus’s demands for trillions in cuts in social programs and a de facto ban on asylum seekers. He added demands for limits on Ukraine war funding, as well as non-compliance with the special counsel’s prosecution of Trump for attempting to overthrow the 2020 election, which he called “election interference” by Biden’s Justice Department. Unless McCarthy acceded to these demands, Gaetz said, his caucus would vote against a continuing resolution for short-term funding for the federal government and precipitate a shutdown on October 1.

House GOP strikes internal deal as shutdown approaches -- Two critical factions of the House Republican Conference reached agreement on a bill to avoid a government shutdown for another month, cutting discretionary spending for the duration, along with the bulk of a House GOP bill to change policies at the border.The hope is to bring the continuing resolution (CR) deal, crafted by leaders in the Main Street Caucus and House Freedom Caucus, to the House floor this week. But even if it passes the House, it faces slim odds of passing in the Democratic-controlled Senate and being signed into law by the White House — and signs emerged on Sunday night that the plan faces an uphill battle getting through the slim House GOP majority.The deal would avoid a looming Oct. 1 shutdown by funding the government through Oct. 31, keeping Defense and the Department of Veterans Affairs at current levels while cutting all discretionary spending by 8 percent. Along with that, it would include the House GOP’s H.R. 2 border crackdown bill — minus its provisions about requiring E-Verify.It does not include disaster relief funds or funding for Ukraine from the White House’s supplemental funding request in August, which it had proposed attaching to a continuing resolution.In addition, the agreement is also to pass an appropriations bill to fund the Department of Defense (DOD) for fiscal 2024 in tandem with the CR bill, according to a GOP source. House GOP leadership was forced to punt plans to put the DOD bill on the House floor last week due to hard-line conservatives planning to sink the procedural vote to allow for its consideration, in protest of wanting steeper cuts across all other appropriations bills.The CR bill is led by Reps. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.); Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), chair of the Main Street Caucus, a pragmatic conservative group; Scott Perry (R-Pa.), chair of the hard-line conservative House Freedom Caucus; Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.), vice chair of the Main Street Caucus; Chip Roy (R-Texas); and Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.).“HFC Members have worked over the weekend with the Main Street Caucus on a path forward to fund the government and secure America’s border. We now have a framework for our colleagues across the House Republican Conference,” Perry said in a statement.The House Rules Committee is scheduled to take up the legislation on Monday. The current plan is for the House to vote on the Pentagon appropriations bill Wednesday and the continuing resolution on Thursday, a source on the call confirmed to The Hill.But soon after a House GOP conference call ended on Sunday evening, it became clear that the plan – which is expected to be universally opposed by Democrats – has some major issues in getting enough support in the razor-thin House GOP majority. Enough GOP lawmakers to potentially sink the plan expressed opposition to the bill on Sunday evening.Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) wrote on X that he was opposed to the bill, as did Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.). “We were assured in January that we weren’t going to use the Democrats’ gimmicks to fund government and that we would deliver the 12 appropriations bills, thereby funding government responsibly and transparently, which is why I will be voting against the CR this week,” Rosendale wrote on X.So did Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), saying: “I will NOT surrender.” Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) told The Hill that he will not vote for the legislation, adding that he does not think that it has the votes to pass. And Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) laid out a series of questions following the Sunday night email, bringing up the longtime request from hardline conservatives to further cut topline spending across all 12 appropriations bills.

Here’s what’s in Republicans’ proposed deal to prevent a shutdown - House GOP leaders are pushing a new proposal that would prevent a government shutdown later this month, but opposition in the Senate and even in the Republican Conference threatens chances of passage. The plan, unveiled Sunday night, would push the Sept. 30 shutdown deadline by another month, buying time for negotiators in both chambers to hash out a larger deal on how to fund the government for most of next year. But it comes with a host of sweeteners designed to attract support from conservatives while laying the groundwork for a potential clash with Democrats in the upper chamber — if the House GOP can pass it. A dozen conservatives have already said they are planning to vote “no” or leaning that way. In the narrow House GOP majority, Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) can lose only a handful of Republican votes. Lawmakers have until the end of the month to pass legislation to prevent what could be the first government shutdown in years. Under the new GOP proposal, that deadline would be extended through the end of October. That means a shutdown would still be possible on Nov. 1, but lawmakers would have another month to work out a deal on government funding for fiscal 2024 or another short-term funding patch, also known as a continuing resolution (CR). The proposed timeline in the new offer — worked out between the hardline House Freedom Caucus and Main Street Caucus, which members describe as “pragmatic conservative” — comes as leaders in the Senate have been eyeing a longer CR that would push the shutdown deadline into December. The bill would trim discretionary spending by roughly 8 percent while shielding funds for Defense, the Department of Veterans Affairs and disaster relief. Conservatives have criticized the budget caps set in the debt ceiling deal brokered by McCarthy and President Biden, saying keeping funding at fiscal 2023 levels doesn’t go far enough in tackling the nation’s debt. A number of House Republicans have also scoffed at the idea of a “clean” CR that would keep government funding at the levels last hashed out when Democrats held control of both chambers. But that doesn’t mean the bill, with the spending cuts included, faces easy odds in the House, as multiple conservatives have come out against the measure. “A CR is a continuation of Nancy Pelosi’s budget and Joe Biden’s policies. We were assured in January that we weren’t going to use the Democrats’ gimmicks to fund government and that we would deliver the 12 appropriations bills, thereby funding government responsibly and transparently, which is why I will be voting against the CR this week,” Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) wrote on X, formerly Twitter. Also included in the stopgap funding bill is most of H.R. 2, Republicans’s signature border bill, also dubbed the “Secure the Border Act of 2023.”The bill pushes to restart construction of the southern border wall, restrict access to asylum, boost hiring of border agents, among other measures.However, missing from the CR proposal are provisions in the border bill requiring E-Verify.House Republicans in May passed H.R.2 219-213, but only after infighting delayed the measurefor several months. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a key conservative, lauded the proposal on X on Monday, saying it would “force [the] strongest border security ever.”

House GOP deal to avert shutdown gets icy reception from conservatives --House Republicans’ proposed short-term spending bill is facing internal opposition that could sink the measure and complicate the conference’s attempt to show unity in its opening offer to the Senate and White House.The stopgap bill to avoid a shutdown, which was unveiled Sunday night, got an icy reception from the right flank of the slim House GOP majority. Enough members have said that they are against the continuing resolution (CR) plan to block it on the House floor, even though leaders hope to bring it up this week.“A CR is a continuation of Nancy Pelosi’s budget and Joe Biden’s policies. We were assured in January that we weren’t going to use the Democrats’ gimmicks to fund government and that we would deliver the 12 appropriations bills, thereby funding government responsibly and transparently, which is why I will be voting against the CR this week,” Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.The plan to keep the government open past Sept. 30 extends funding for a month and pairs spending cuts and border crackdown measures. It was developed by leaders in the House GOP’s Main Street Caucus, a group that bills themselves as pragmatic conservatives, and the hard-line conservative House Freedom Caucus. But despite the involvement of those leaders, many hard-line conservatives — including those in the House Freedom Caucus — remain skeptical of the plan. At least 12 GOP lawmakers have come out against the legislation or are leaning against it.“NO,” Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) succinctly wrote on X after the proposal was rolled out.“Pass the damn approps bills. Roll back the crazy bureaucracy to pre-COVID levels. Now,” Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) wrote on X.Republican Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), Tim Burchett (Tenn.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Ralph Norman (S.C.), Anna Paulina Luna (Fla.), Ken Buck (Colo.), Victoria Spartz (Ind.), Andy Ogles (Tenn.), Bishop, Crane and Rosendale have either said they will vote against the legislation or are leaning against it.Norman brought up the longtime request from hard-line conservatives to further cut topline spending across all 12 appropriations bills, and come up with a plan for all of them before proceeding on any additional government funding.Asked Monday morning if he has the votes to pass the CR proposal, Speaker Kevin McCarthy(R-Calif.) told reporters “don’t know.”Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), one of the Freedom Caucus leaders who helped craft the agreement, praised the plan and expressed disappointment in his fellow hardline conservatives for opposing it.“Unfortunately, some of my colleagues don’t think that’s good enough. They want to hide behind some other rhetoric. They want to hide behind, ‘Oh, we need to do more on DOJ or do more on this or that or the other,’” Roy said on the Guy Benson radio show on Monday. “There’s no Ukraine supplemental. There’s no disaster emergency supplemental. There’s simply a strong bill that would do what we need to do to ratchet back the federal bureaucracy that’s been at odds with the American people and force their hand on the border, which is a strong national message,” Roy said. “I think that’s a win. I think that’s a place to go push to force the Democrats to have to react.”Even if the bill gets through the House, it is highly unlikely that the Democratic-controlled Senate and White House accept the legislation as is, with steep cuts and border policies they oppose.The bill would fund the government through Oct. 31 but cut all discretionary department spending outside of Defense and Veterans Affairs by about 8 percent. It also includes the bulk of the House GOP’s H.R. 2 border crackdown bill that President Biden said he would veto.

Democrats move to suspend Senate rules to advance stalled spending bill - Senate Democrats on Monday moved to suspend the Senate’s rules to advance a stalled government funding bill after Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) objected to the legislation last week. “Sen. Murray will move to suspend Rule XVI and file cloture on that motion,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced on the Senate floor. “This is an effort to move forward on the minibus and keep the appropriations process on track here in the Senate,” he explained. The Senate had been making good progress on the annual spending bills, passing all 12 of them out of the Senate Appropriations Committee with bipartisan support, until Johnson threw a wrench in the works last week. Johnson invoked Rule XVI, which effectively bars senators from expanding the scope of appropriations bills, to block Senate Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Vice Chairwoman Susan Collins (R-Maine) from offering a substitute amendment to the Military Construction and Veterans Affairs appropriations bill. Their substitute amendment would have expanded the base bill into what’s known as a “minibus,” funding military construction as well as the departments of Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, Transportation and Housing and Urban Development. Johnson’s procedural objection brought last week’s Senate debate to a grinding halt, scuttling votes that were expected Thursday afternoon. Democrats struck back on Monday by advancing a motion to suspend the Senate rules, an ambitious move because it would need the support of 67 senators to pass. “It’s unfortunate that one member who does not represent the views of most senators prevented us from moving forward last week,” Schumer said, referring to Johnson. Murray then stood up on the Senate floor to make a motion to suspend Rule XVI and said she hopes to get amendments to the minibus ready while the motion ripens. “This is a package of bills which each of them passed the Appropriations Committee unanimously, and we have been working very hard in a bipartisan effort in good faith to set up a very robust process for amendments and debate,” she said. “Unfortunately, a few senators decided to object to us last week and now … we are moving forward.” She said the vote to suspend the rules would happen “later this week.” Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), a senior member of the Appropriations Committee, warned that suspending the Senate’s rules with a two-thirds vote is “not an easy thing.”

Senate Democrats lambaste House GOP spending bill: ‘not a serious proposal’ --Senate Democrats on Monday universally panned the stopgap spending bill rolled out over the weekend by House Republicans, further increasing the chances of a government shutdown as both chambers remain stuck with less than two weeks before the deadline for an accord. Top Democrats did not mince words about a proposal cobbled together by the various wings of the House GOP, including the House Freedom Caucus and the Main Street Caucus, saying that provisions included in the bill have no chance of inclusion in a continuing resolution. “Last night’s proposal in the House can be boiled down to two words: slapdash, reckless,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on the floor. “Slapdash because it is not a serious proposal for avoiding a shutdown and reckless because if passed it would cause immense harm to so many priorities that help the American people.” “Time is short to finish the job,” Schumer continued. “If both sides embrace bipartisanship, a shutdown will be avoided. If the hard right is given a license to run the show, a shutdown is almost inevitable. It’s that simple.” Both chambers, however, are having trouble deciding how to proceed. The future of the House GOP bill remains very much up in the air as the conference deals with multiple absences, a dwindling margin for error after former Rep. Chris Stewart’s (R-Utah) resignation went into effect, and an increasing number of conservatives speaking out against the proposal. If that opposition holds, it could be enough to sink the bill in the House. But it’s the Senate that is hamstrung at the moment. Senate Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray (D-Wash.) moved to suspend the Senate’s rules Monday to advance a trio of appropriations bills after Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) objected to the legislation last week. Johnson is calling for the bills to be voted on one by one, a process that is more time-consuming than the bipartisan “minibus.” In order to move on Murray’s plan, two-thirds of senators will need to support the motion, but Senate Republicans were noncommittal to how they would proceed despite the overwhelming support the minibus received when it hit the floor. “This is a package of bills which each of them passed the Appropriations Committee unanimously, and we have been working very hard in a bipartisan effort in good faith to set up a very robust process for amendments and debate,” Murray said on the floor. “Unfortunately, a few senators decided to object to us last week and now … we are moving forward.”

A House GOP attempt to advance abortion measure backfires in funding fight -House GOP leaders have abandoned efforts to pass an agriculture funding bill amid an intraparty row over abortion policy. Now, Speaker Kevin McCarthy is left without critical leverage as the Democratic-majority Senate advances its own plans and Congress hurtles toward a federal shutdown Oct. 1.House GOP leaders had hoped that inserting abortion policy into every major piece of their government spending plans would help win over conservative members and placate influential outside groups agitating for more aggressive action on the issue. But so far, the move has helped to seal the demise of what is usually among the easiest appropriations bills for Congress to pass, drawing fierce and rare pushback from more than a dozen moderate Republicans.At the center of the battle: a GOP provision in the agriculture funding bill to ban mail delivery of abortion pills nationwide. Divisions over the move, along with disagreement over the total spending levels, forced senior Republicans to scuttle a planned House vote on the bill that funds the USDA and Food and Drug Administration at the end of July. Discussions to revive the bill over the August recess failed, according to three people who were granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.Now, Republican leaders have no plans to bring the bill to the floor vote amid the time crunch, the three people familiar with the talks confirmed. That leaves the Democratic-controlled Senate — which is advancing its own, very different version of the Agriculture and FDA funding bill as part of a “minibus” spending package this week — in a far stronger negotiating position when it comes time to hammer out a compromise spending bill to fund the government.“It’s dead, dead,” one of the people familiar with the talks said, describing the fate of the House USDA and FDA funding bill, and, for now, the ban on mail delivery of abortion pills House Republicans have been pushing.Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), a member of the Appropriations Committee, said agriculture was important “on both sides of the aisle” but that Agriculture Department and FDA funding will likely be hammered out in talks with the Senate. The focus now, the Montana Republican said, should be elsewhere.“We gotta get the border done,” Zinke said. While GOP leaders anticipated pushback on the spending proposals from their right flank — including pressure for deeper spending cuts and tougher border security measures — they’ve also faced rare public pushback from moderate Republicans, who have dug in against their abortion strategy. In particular, those moderates have objected to the provision in the Agriculture and FDA spending bill to ban mail delivery of abortion pills, which have become a major flashpoint since the Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. Wadelast year. Approved for use up to 10 weeks of pregnancy, the pills have become the most common method of abortion in the U.S. but battles over the drugs continuing to play out in courts, state legislatures and on Capitol Hill.

House GOP tensions in shutdown drama boil over -- Tensions in the House GOP over how to avoid — or not avoid — a potential government shutdown are coming to a boil, with frustrations spilling over into public jabs and airing of grievances without a clear path forward to fund the government past Sept. 30. “It’s an unmitigated disaster right now on the majority side,” Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.), an appropriator, said on MSNBC on Monday. “I’m fearful of what this leads to.” Republicans are bitterly divided on a short-term stopgap bill that would fund the government through Oct. 31. The measure includes an 8 percent cut to everything but Defense and Veterans Affairs, along with the bulk of the House GOP’s border crackdown bill. The plan, crafted by leaders in the Main Street Caucus and House Freedom Caucus, is intended to show House GOP unity and place pressure on the Democratic-controlled Senate and White House in negotiations for a package that could become law. But more than a dozen hardline conservative Republicans swiftly announced they opposed the bill for not going far enough or not addressing other appropriations — including many in the House Freedom Caucus. By the end of the day Monday, about 24 hours after the bill was unveiled, the list of Republicans saying they are definite or probable “no” votes had grown to at least 16. In the narrow GOP majority, that opposition would be more than enough to sink the legislation.“They weren’t speaking for anyone beyond the six of them,” Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), a Freedom Caucus member, said of the members who wrote the bill.Clashes between conservatives spilled onto social media Monday, with GOP lawmakers going after one another in the public eye.Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) knocked the stopgap measure — which he dubbed “the Donalds CR” after Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), one of the bill sponsors — in a post on X, arguing that it will continue to fund the office of Jack Smith, the special counsel overseeing investigations into former President Trump. Donalds shot back, telling his Florida colleague “You’ll need more than tweets and hot takes!!”In a separate post responding to Donalds, Gaetz said “It is so painful watching someone I admire so much author a continuing resolution to fund the government agencies I loathe.”Donalds chalked up the back-and-forth as “par for the course” in politics.Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) kicked off the day with a fiery statement going after McCarthy — who she dubbed a “weak Speaker” — and staking her opposition to the GOP continuing resolution.Asked for his reaction to Spartz, McCarthy took a shot at her for retiring at the end of this term.“Anybody who criticize you has never worked harder than you. And I mean, if Victoria is concerned about fighting stronger, I wish she would’ve run again and not quit,” he told reporters. “I mean, I’m not quitting, I’m gonna continue to work for the American public.”Gaetz then jumped in to defend his GOP colleague from McCarthy, whom the Florida Republican has sharply criticized in recent days. Last week, Gaetz heightened his threat to oust McCarthy from his post.“This quote from @SpeakerMcCarthy is disgraceful. Rep. Spartz is retiring after honorable service because her family needs her and she values the most important institution in American life. Kevin attacking a woman for putting her family above ambition & power is truly a new low. Kevin would never understand subjugating ambition for anything, or anyone,” Gaetz wrote on X.

McCarthy runs head first into conservatives' spending stonewall - A day after Speaker Kevin McCarthy dramatically escalated his party’s impeachment drive, he is still struggling to contain a conservative revolt that could soon plunge Washington into a shutdown. The most immediate sign that the speaker’s troubles have not abated is defense spending legislation slated to come to the floor later on Wednesday. It’s a Republican bill, but McCarthy lacks the votes to bring it up it because of objections from hardliners and a smattering of absences. But that’s just one in a series of problems. It’s become clear that McCarthy’s move to placate his right flank by launching an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden isn’t working. He still lacks the votes to pass a stopgap bill to keep the government open past Sept. 30. And some conservatives are still threatening to force a vote stripping him of the speakership. Even McCarthy loyalists are concerned about the lack of options for a high-stakes September, with some privately saying they’re worried about shouldering blame for a shutdown than the impeachment inquiry. Democrats need to flip just a handful of seats to take back the House next year. “We have an evolving strategy going right now. This whole place is about chaos, right?” Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.) said of the September game plan. McCarthy did lay out one potential spending strategy to his members on Wednesday. He’s aiming to unify the conference behind a package of the GOP’s biggest funding priorities, namely the Pentagon and homeland security bills. But even that plan is far from certain to succeed, multiple members said. Some Freedom Caucus are still resistant, no matter how the spending bills are assembled. In private remarks to his conference Wednesday, McCarthy encouraged his members to leave the meeting united, arguing that it would allow them to go to “battle” against a “united” Senate, according to Republicans familiar with the closed-door meeting. He said that passing the appropriations bills would give him leverage in the negotiations. He also acknowledged the need for a short-term government funding bill, given they don’t have enough time to pass the 11 remaining appropriations bills before the end-of-month deadline. Yet the reality is that his conservative members have enough votes to derail every one of McCarthy’s spending priorities — the defense spending bill on Wednesday, virtually all of the other 10 bills still on the docket and any kind of short-term funding bill. GOP leaders punted plans to take up the defense bill in the early afternoon, with widespread doubt that it can be resolved this week. Leadership is still meeting with holdouts on Wednesday, but some are privately preparing to pull the defense bill entirely — marking McCarthy’s second humiliating defeat this summer on spending bills written by his own party.

WHIP LIST: Tally of Republicans opposed to stopgap proposal to prevent shutdown grows House Republicans are struggling to lock down votes for a proposed stopgap funding measure with less than two weeks left to avoid a government shutdown.The measure, crafted by leaders of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus and the Main Street Caucus and unveiled late Sunday, would extend government funding through Oct. 31. It would cut all discretionary spending by 8 percent except for the Department of Defense and the Department of Veterans Affairs, and it includes the bulk of a House GOP border policy bill. The bill is sure to be dead on arrival in the Democratic-controlled Senate, but Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and his conference would win significant leverage with the Senate and White House if they could at least get it through the chamber in a party-line vote. The problem is that a number of hard-line Republicans are lining up against the measure, with some saying they will never vote for a stopgap measure. Given the narrow GOP majority, Republicans can only lose four of their own members if everyone in the House votes. Democrats would all be expected to vote against the measure. ‘No’ votes (12):

Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) — Bishop says he’s opposed to a stopgap measure, generally known as a continuing resolution (CR). “Roll back the crazy bureaucracy to pre-COVID levels,” he said in a post on X, the platform previously known as Twitter.
Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.)
Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) — Burchett told The Hill that he’s a “no” on the legislation.
Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) — Crane said he was a “No,” in a succinct post on X.
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) — Gaetz has been the biggest thorn in McCarthy’s side throughout this Congress and has said he will not back the legislation. He has repeatedly threatened to bring a motion to vacate to the floor — essentially a measure to dump McCarthy as Speaker.
Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) — “We must recommit to implementing the conservative Republican policies that we ran on last year, including real spending cuts that take a step forward toward fiscal responsibility. Speaker McCarthy must step up and lead this effort, which can be done by September 30, or soon thereafter,” Good wrote on X.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) — Greene is an ally of McCarthy’s, but in a post on X she said she opposes the legislation and criticized it for essentially comprising Democratic policies from last year’s appropriations measures.
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) — Luna said she is a “no” on the CR. She’s also recovering after delivering a baby, but said she’ll fly to Washington to vote against the legislation if needed.
Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) — Mills told reporters “This right here, we’re calling an 8 percent cut on this CR. But we’re spending a level at $1.75 trillion. That’s not an actual cut. You ask any average American and say ‘how do I get myself out of debt?’ It’s not ‘I spend more.’”
Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) — Ogles is decidedly looking like a “no” vote, putting up social media posts calling those opposed to the CR “heroes.”
Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) — Rosendale, who may run for the Senate in Montana, said he will not back a continuing resolution.
Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) — Spartz issued a statement laying out her opposition and criticizing McCarthy for a lack of leadership.

An out-of-control GOP is the party of nonstop national crisis - Stop me if you’ve heard this one, but congressional Republicans are once again careening toward internal crisis and a damaging government shutdown. You may remember this song-and-dance from the last four or five times the party’s hard-line Freedom Caucus members held America’s economy hostage. That doesn’t make our latest spin on the roller coaster any less nauseating. In the past, Republican leaders managed by the slimmest of margins to avert financial catastrophe by working with Democrats to pass temporary funding bills. This time it isn’t even clear they can achieve that minimum level of competence — in part because House SpeakerKevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has blown his internal credibility to bits. Meanwhile, the American people are watching the slow, loud and very public disintegration of Republican unity. Once again, McCarthy’s own caucus has taken the sledgehammer to his knees. Over the weekend, a dozen Republican lawmakers publicly declared they would oppose the Speaker’s latest effort to keep the government open. Now McCarthy’s legacy risks being defined by the GOP’s transformation into a nonfunctional party of nonstop national crisis. It isn’t even clear that a sizable minority of Republican lawmakers want to keep the government open. Freedom Caucus stalwarts including Reps. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) dismissed McCarthy’s proposal out of hand without even attempting to offer an alternative. Luna, who recently gave birth and is still in the hospital, went so far as to say she’d leave her recovery bed in order to guarantee McCarthy’s continuing resolution fails. Luna offers the perfect visual of the current GOP: A lawmaker willing to drag herself out of a hospital bed in order to ensure the federal government does not function.That’s all the more perverse when you realize a federal shutdown would deny a paycheck to nearly 15,000 Floridian federal workers, as it did in 2019. A shutdown would also grind Federal Housing Authority and Veterans Administration mortgage processing to a halt, slamming the brakes on thousands of Florida homebuyers. If only Luna and her colleagues were so willing to risk their health in ways that actually helped their constituents. The spat over funding the government also drew Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) into a Twitter scuffle with Gaetz, who called the stopgap plan “a terrible bill” and “one BAD VOTE,” while once again raising the specter of calling a vote to oust McCarthy from his position. Gaetz will find ready allies in House Democrats, who dismissed McCarthy’s 8 percent across-the-board cuts to domestic programs as unserious. Once again, the Speaker of the House finds himself without any allies to advance his agenda. Even non-Freedom Caucus Republicans are abandoning McCarthy. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) torched the plan in a statement released on Monday, accusing McCarthy of lacking the spine to lead. “It is a shame that our weak Speaker cannot even commit to having a commission to discuss our looming financial catastrophe,” Spartz wrote. “Our founding fathers would be rolling over in their graves.” Hardly the language of someone likely to support McCarthy if the Freedom Caucus puts forward a vote of no confidence. There is some truth to Republicans’ many criticisms. A party that rants endlessly about increasing border security can’t, in the same breath, support a resolution that slashes funding for those same border security efforts. That lack of foresight is trademark McCarthy: a plan rushed out under duress, full of internal contradictions and not especially convincing to anyone who matters. But if McCarthy’s bill is dead-on-arrival, it’s not clear the Freedom Caucus has the support to do any better. A Democratic Senate won’t even glance at the HFC’s even more extreme proposed cuts, and members of their own party are losing patience with their antics. Said Rep. Mike Lawler of New York: “This is not conservative Republicanism. This is stupidity … these people can’t define a win. They don’t know how to take yes for an answer. It’s a clown show.” In the nine months since taking power in the House, Republicans have only proven capable of careening the nation from one preventable crisis to the next. Eventually their brinksmanship will break down and plunge our nation into a costly, painful government shutdown. Not only is there no one leading the GOP, every effort at unifying them behind a clear policy platform only deepens their bitter fractures. It is worth asking why these types of financial disasters only happen when Republicans control our national purse-strings. In the end, American voters still appreciate a competent government that looks out for their financial futures. They won’t find that in whatever passes for today’s Republican Party. Instead, they will find lawmakers who have given up on governing in favor of the easy work of grievance politics.

Democrats face big decision on McCarthy - Hard-line Republican threats to force a vote on ousting Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) from his post could soon thrust Democrats into a difficult decision: Do they save the Speaker who opened an impeachment inquiry into their president or join Republicans in booting him? Top Democrats say they have not formulated a strategy for handling such a vote, dismissing questions as hypothetical and insisting that they are focused on funding the government and averting a shutdown ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline. But Democrats’ votes could save — or end — McCarthy’s Speakership, which he clinched after a marathon 15 rounds of voting in January. “It would be a big question,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the chair of the House Progressive Caucus, told The Hill on Tuesday. That question, however, is of high interest, and Democrats may have to answer it sooner rather than later. McCarthy hasn’t been able to unite his fractious conference around a plan to fund the government, threats to oust him are growing louder, and internal GOP sniping is spilling into public view. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), one of McCarthy’s top adversaries, put the Speaker on notice last week, announcing in a floor speech that he would force a vote on booting him if he does not meet a list of demands on spending and legislation. On Tuesday, a reporter found what appeared to be a House resolution drafted by Gaetz in a Capitol bathroom that said “the office of Speaker of the House of Representatives is hereby declared to be vacant.” The Hill could not independently confirm the authenticity of the document. McCarthy, for his part, has brushed aside the idea that his gavel is in jeopardy. Asked on Monday if he thinks he will need support from the other side of the aisle to salvage his Speakership, McCarthy responded “I’m not worried about that.” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) over the weekend said the Democratic caucus “haven’t given it any thought one way or the other” when asked about a potential vote on ousting McCarthy, adding that the group will “cross that bridge when we get to it.” House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) would not say if leadership would whip a vote on ousting McCarthy — “we’re gonna cross that” — but she predicted that Democrats will remain united. “We have been unified on every single vote, so we’ll stay that way,” Clark told The Hill. Some Democrats have flat out said or suggested that they would support an effort to oust McCarthy, upping the pressure on the Speaker.

House GOP rolls out 10-year budget plan amid spending fight Republicans on the House Budget Committee on Tuesday rolled out the party’s 10-year budget plan as the conference races to strike a deal on spending little under two weeks out from a looming government shutdown deadline. Republicans say the ambitious measure would balance the federal budget over the next decade, with proposals aimed at cutting the nation’s deficits by more than $16 trillion during the period. Among the proposals the GOP-led committee has highlighted as part of the plan are changes to work requirements for able-bodied recipients of Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, limits on discretionary spending and rollbacks of parts of Democrats’ signature Inflation Reduction Act. The proposed budget is a 10-year blueprint and wishlist of sorts. It is distinct from the spending bills being debated as the clock ticks toward a shutdown at the end of the month and will not become law. But the measure can provide a look into where the party thinks the nation’s fiscal trajectory should be headed over the next decade. “I hope that this will help grease the skids for us to get a unified Republican funding package on the discretionary spending,” House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) told reporters this week. The committee’s planned markup on Wednesday coincides with growing debate in the GOP conference over spending, as leadership works to get the party’s various factions on the same page ahead of expected negotiations with the Democratic-led Senate on how to avoid a government shutdown. In remarks to reporters on Tuesday, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) called the proposed budget plan a “step forward” and provides a measure that the party “convalesce around” and “maybe get to some consensus before it gets to Sept. 30.” Burchett is among a list of Republicans who have come out against a legislative deal worked out between the House Freedom Caucus and the Main Street Caucus over the weekend that would stave off the threat of a shutdown later this month. That bill, also known as a continuing resolution (CR), would punt the shutdown deadline from the end of the month through Oct. 31, along with provisions that would cut spending and enact changes to border policy as leadership works to lock down support from hardline conservatives. GOP leaders previously set sights on a floor vote on the CR this week, but plans for a procedural vote on the bill were scrapped on Tuesday as internal divisions in the conference over how far to cut government spending for the coming fiscal year have garnered attention in recent weeks. Democrats have already come out against the budget plan, with Rep. Brendan Boyle (Penn.), top Democrat on the Budget Committee, accusing his colleagues across the aisle of pushing for “cruel cuts to everything from health care to education.” “Make no mistake: America is barreling towards a government shutdown because Republicans reneged on the bipartisan budget agreement in their thirst for cruel budget cuts – cuts which will raise the cost of living when it’s already too high,” he said in a statement.

House GOP Unveils Budget With Trillions in Cuts to Medicaid, Food Benefits, and More -House Republicans unveiled a budget blueprint on Tuesday that proposes trillions of dollars in federal spending reductions over the next decade, specifically targeting Medicaid and federal nutrition assistance for steep cuts.House Budget Committee Republicans’ new resolution also calls for the establishment of a “bipartisan debt commission” to examine and propose changes to “the drivers of U.S. debt… such as Social Security and Medicare.” (Social Security does not, in fact, contribute to long-term federal deficits.) “MAGA Republicans are driving our nation towards a costly government shutdown because they want to make cruel cuts to everything from healthcare to education, and this MAGA Budget doubles down on their extreme cuts,” Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, said in response to the new proposal.“Make no mistake: America is barreling towards a government shutdown because Republicans reneged on the bipartisan budget agreement in their thirst for cruel budget cuts—cuts which will raise the cost of living when it’s already too high,” Boyle added.The Republican proposal, which has no chance of becoming law given Democratic control of the Senate, would cut federal discretionary spending by nearly $5 trillion over the next decade, Roll Call reportedTuesday. The plan would cut mandatory spending—a category that includes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)—by nearly $9 trillion over a 10-year period.The proposal would gash federal Medicaid spending by close to $2 trillion and SNAP by $800 billion. The resolution also calls for punitive new work requirements for the two programs.“While it is critical families have access to food,” the GOP resolution states, “it is equally critical work-capable households are encouraged to make more responsible choices.”The budget blueprint comes a day after House Republicans put forth a short-term government funding plan that would impose steep cuts to nondefense discretionary spending. With a government shutdown less than two weeks away, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) “punted plans to tee up a vote” on the widely criticized government funding proposal, Politicoreported Tuesday.As for the new budget blueprint, it is largely in line with past Republican proposals.In an analysis on Monday, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) noted that GOP budget plans over the past decade have “proposed large and damaging program cuts across a broad swath of nondefense areas.”“The proposed cuts disproportionately fell in programs for households with low and moderate incomes,” CBPP observed, “but they were also broad-based and included deep cuts in the part of the budget that funds public services whose funding is provided annually, such as education, medical research, environmental protection, and the administration of the Social Security Administration.”

House Republicans push back on Trump criticism of funding plan: ‘He’s not here’ -- Some House Republicans are pushing back on former President Trump’s criticism of a recent plan the conference hatched to avert a government shutdown that already seems to be in trouble. “A very important deadline is approaching at the end of the month. Republicans in Congress can and must defund all aspects of Crooked Joe Biden’s weaponized Government that refuses to close the Border, and treats half the Country as Enemies of the State,” Trump wrote on social media shortly after news broke of the plan. “This is also the last chance to defund these political prosecutions against me and other Patriots. They failed on the debt limit, but they must not fail now. Use the power of the purse and defend the Country!” the former president continued. Some House Republicans have vowed to try to use the appropriations process to reduce funding for agencies like the Justice Department and the FBI, accusing the federal government of “weaponization” of them in light of the former president’s legal woes. But while many House Republicans agree with the president’s sentiment — and have supported him throughout his four indictments — they also say they stand behind the framework deal. “He would’ve made the same call,” conservative Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said Thursday, arguing “this will put us in a position to use leverage that he’s talking about.” Others seemed to brush off the former president’s recent call as internal negotiations in the GOP conference heat up days from a looming shutdown deadline. “He’s not here we are. We need to deal with our business in this house,” moderate Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio) said Thursday. “And the mechanics of it are such that the only way we can continue on is to do a CR [continuing resolution] because we’re not going to be able to get all the appropriations bills passed by the end of the month.” “This conference has focused on trying to get our appropriations bills done that we have crafted in the appropriations process,” Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.) said. Asked about the impact the president has amid GOP spending talks, the congressman added, “I think House Republicans are focused on the business of House Republicans.” Republicans appeared to hit a breakthrough in talks late Wednesday as members voiced optimism about the conference progressing toward a deal to prevent the first government funding lapse in years. But by Thursday enough conservatives had lined up against the proposal to sink it. The partisan plan, which is considered dead on arrival in the upper chamber, called for spending cuts and changes to border policy while kicking the Sept. 30 shutdown deadline through next month to allow time for negotiators to hash out a larger deal on how to fund the government for fiscal 2024.

Greene flips Pentagon funding vote over Ukraine money with Zelensky in town - Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) on Thursday flipped her vote on advancing the Pentagon appropriations bill, citing Ukraine aid as the reason for her “no” vote.Greene had voted “yes” on the rule for the Pentagon bill — which governs debate on a bill and lets the chamber proceed to a vote on the legislation — when it first came up Tuesday.But the procedural vote failed and when Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) brought it back up Thursday. Greene was one of five conservative Republicans to vote “no.”“Our country is being invaded by the thousands every damn day and our Department of Defense does nothing,” Greene posted Thursday on X, formerly known as Twitter. “Our Defense bill should not fund our DOD for blood money for the Ukraine war, that’s why I’m a NO. What did we get out of Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan?”Greene has emerged as one of McCarthy’s strongest allies, but her and other GOP colleagues’ “no” votes on advancing the Pentagon bill dealt a blow to the Speaker and continued a week of turmoil for House Republicans. The chaos includes the failure of this bill and other struggles to advance a House GOP stopgap bill to fund the government to prevent an upcoming government shutdown. McCarthy expressed his open frustration Thursday in the wake of the failed vote.“This is a whole new concept of individuals that just want to burn the whole place down,” McCarthy told reporters.

Conservatives deal blow to McCarthy with second failure to advance Pentagon funding -House conservatives defeated a procedural vote on a Pentagon funding bill Thursday, preventing the legislation from moving forward in the chamber for a second time this week and dealing an embarrassing blow to Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).Six Republicans joined Democrats in voting against the rule for the Pentagon appropriations bill, which was enough to defeat the effort. The final vote was 216-212.The failed vote marks another disappointment for McCarthy, who has tried to advance the appropriations process — and appease the conference’s right flank — as the end-of-the-month government funding deadline inches closer.Republican Reps. Dan Bishop (N.C.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), Matt Rosendale (Mont.), Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Eli Crane (Ariz.) and Tom Cole (Okla.) voted against advancing the bill. Cole flipped his vote to “no” at the last moment, a procedural move that will allow him to bring up the measure later.The vote — which remained open for more than 35 minutes — made for a dramatic scene on the House floor. Democrats shouted for the vote to remain open when Republicans had a slight edge, signaling that they had more members to weigh in.The tally was tied at 213-213 for some time, until Rep. Sanford Bishop Jr. (D-Ga.) entered the chamber and voted against the rule — giving Democrats a one-vote margin. Ten minutes later, Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-N.J.) cast his vote against the rule, bringing the tally to 215-213. Cole then flipped to a “no” and the vote closed.Votes on rules — which govern debate for legislation — are typically partisan and predictable matters, with the majority party supporting the effort and the minority party opposing it. It is exceedingly rare to see them voted down on the floor.But the failed vote Thursday comes after conservatives voted down the rule for the same bill Tuesday.The Speaker set Thursday’s vote after two conservatives who opposed the initial effort to advance the legislation changed their stances, leading McCarthy to believe that he had the votes to move the measure.Emerging from a closed-door House GOP conference meeting in the Capitol on Wednesday evening, Reps. Ralph Norman (S.C.) and Ken Buck (Colo.) — who opposed the procedural vote Tuesday — said they would vote for the rule when it came to the floor again Thursday.They initially voted against the rule amid calls for steeper spending cuts and frustration that they had not yet received topline spending levels for all 12 appropriations bills, but flipped after McCarthy pitched the conference on a new proposal for a continuing resolution (CR) that also included a commitment that the remaining fiscal 2024 appropriations bills would be marked up at a topline level of $1.526 trillion.But Thursday, two other Republicans — Greene and Crane — flipped votes they made on Tuesday and opposed the rule, joining Bishop, Rosendale and Biggs, who had also opposed the procedural vote Tuesday.Those five were enough to tank the rule and block consideration of the Pentagon appropriations bill. Crane said he opposed the procedural vote Thursday because his voters “expect me to do everything I possibly can to change the way this town works.” Greene said she opposed the effort because it included funding for Ukraine.

GOP struggles with chaos as shutdown deadline nears -- Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is on his third strategy to avoid a government shutdown at the end of the month after suffering a series of defeats handed to him by conservatives in his own conference. He was forced to punt a procedural vote on a GOP-only stopgap plan, and found sustained opposition even after proposing adjustments. He watched a Pentagon spending bill go down on a procedural vote — submarined by his own members — twice in three days. Now, McCarthy plans to bring up several full-year appropriations bills for fiscal year 2024 in the coming days — capitulating to the demands of dug-in conservatives. If those bills can pass the House, McCarthy and his allies believe it could buy them some goodwill and possibly convince the holdouts to approve a GOP-only stopgap measure. But there’s no guarantee the strategy will work. And even if the House passes a partisan stopgap bill, the Democratic-controlled Senate and the White House are certain to reject it, leaving Congress no closer to averting a government shutdown after Sept. 30. It is the latest sign of McCarthy’s struggles to keep his narrow majority together — and keep his gavel — amid the chaos caused by his own members. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Calif.) has explicitly threatened to force a vote to oust McCarthy if he does not “comply” with hardliners’ demands. And on the other end of the spectrum, at least one moderate Republican has indicated they are ready to work with Democrats to force a vote on an alternative bipartisan continuing resolution plan as Republicans remain unable to pass even party-line measures. “It’s a soap opera,” said Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.), a House appropriator. “What do you guys want to call this? … ‘All My Children?’ Has that already been taken?”

Would a government shutdown impact Social Security, VA benefits? — As lawmakers continue to try to avoid a government shutdown at the end of the month, many are growing concerned about how it could affect them, especially when it comes to federal monthly payments they receive. The government could shut down by the end of next week, if Congress isn’t able to pass a spending bill. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy vowed Wednesday he would not give up trying to persuade his colleagues to pass a temporary funding bill. Still, the shutdown looms. So what would that mean for your Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, or Veterans Affairs payments? In short, they will not be impacted. Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security are funded through permanent appropriations, unlike other programs that require renewal (those are impacted by the current budget discussions). According to the Department of Veterans Affairs contingency plan (the most recent was last updated in 2021), Veterans Health Administration facilities are expected to remain open and operating fully, and most employees would remain on the job thanks to advanced appropriations. The VA has also ruled compensation and pension benefits, housing, and burial services among those that would remain available should the government shut down. So if you receive payments from these agencies, you still will in October, regardless of whether the government shuts down. You may, however, have a hard time contacting someone within their respective agencies as some may undergo furloughs during a potential shutdown. While every federal agency is required to have a contingency plan in the event of a shutdown, it’s unclear how exactly a potential Oct. 1 shutdown would impact government operations, but services deemed essential would remain intact. That includes border protection, federal law enforcement, and air traffic control, CNN explains. The U.S. Postal Service would also continue its duties, since it is funded separately.

GOP leadership tells members to go home but be on call amid funding stalemate - House Republican leadership told members they can leave Washington Thursday after the conference failed to make any progress on funding the government ahead of the Sept. 30 shutdown deadline. But they advised lawmakers to be on call and ready to return to Washington if needed. House GOP leadership had informed members that votes were expected Friday into Saturday as discussions over government funding continued. But those plans were scrapped by Thursday afternoon after the House GOP conference faced a number of setbacks in its effort to avert a government shutdown. The announcement from GOP leadership came shortly after a coalition of conservatives tanked a procedural vote to consider a Pentagon funding bill, marking an embarrassing loss for Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) as he looks to unite his conference around the appropriations process. It also came as enough conservative opposition emerged to block a revamped proposal for a short-term stopgap funding measure that leadership unveiled Wednesday night. Top appropriators huddled in McCarthy’s office following the failed procedural vote on Thursday. Emerging from that meeting, Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) said some members had already left D.C. “But I understand that there are members that have, some members that may have already departed for one reason or another but — it’s a college football weekend, there are fundraisers, it’s the end of the golf season, people have scheduled fundraising golf tournaments and those kinds of,” he told reporters. “I get that.”

McCarthy vows to strip Ukraine money from Pentagon bill after Greene ‘no’ vote --Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) announced Friday that he will strip funding for Ukraine out of a Pentagon spending bill after Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) joined conservatives in blocking the legislation from advancing earlier this week.McCarthy said he would remove the $300 million for Ukraine currently in the Pentagon appropriations bill and hold a separate vote on the funding.“It would be out and voted on by itself,” McCarthy said when asked about the Ukraine aid in the Pentagon appropriations bill.The Speaker’s announcement comes one day after a band of five conservatives opposed a procedural vote for the Pentagon appropriations bill, sinking the effort and preventing the legislation from moving forward. It was the second time this week that hard-liners blocked the funding bill from advancing.Votes on rules — which govern debate for legislation — are normally partisan and predictable matters, with the majority supporting voting “yes” and the minority party voting “no.” It is very rare for rules to fail on the floor.Greene, who has emerged as a close ally of McCarthy, was one of the Republicans who voted against the rule Thursday “because it funds the war in Ukraine.” It was a shift from her vote Tuesday, when the congresswoman supported the procedural vote to advance the Defense measure.The rule failed for a second time on the same day that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with lawmakers in the Capitol.The Pentagon funding bill includes $300 million “to provide assistance, including training; equipment; lethal assistance; logistics support, supplies and services; salaries and stipends; sustainment; and intelligence support to the military and national security forces of Ukraine, and to other forces or groups recognized by and under the authority of the Government of Ukraine, including governmental entities within Ukraine, engaged in resisting Russian aggression against Ukraine, for replacement of any weapons or articles provided to the Government of Ukraine from the inventory of the United States.”Greene has come out against sending additional money to Ukraine. On Friday morning, she went live on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, and said she would support the measure if the Ukraine aid is taken out.

McCarthy backtracks, says he will keep Ukraine aid in Pentagon funding bill - Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on Saturday said he will keep Ukraine aid in the Pentagon funding bill, a reversal from his announcement one day earlier that he would strip the money out due to opposition from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.). McCarthy told reporters in the Capitol that he decided to keep the $300 million of Ukraine aid in the bill after recognizing that another spending measure set to come up next week — one that funds the State Department and Foreign Operations — also includes money for Kyiv. The Speaker said stripping the Ukraine aid out of the State Department and Foreign Operations measure “becomes more difficult to do,” which led him to decide to keep the money for Kyiv in both measures. The House next week is set to take a single procedural vote to advance four appropriations bills, including ones that fund the Pentagon and the State Department and Foreign Operations. “That’s not solving it because one of the others has some Ukraine things,” McCarthy said of stripping the Ukraine aid out of the Pentagon appropriations bill. “So it became too difficult to do that so we’re leaving it in.” The House, however, will vote on amendments to strike the Ukraine aid from both the Pentagon and State Department and Foreign Operations spending bills, Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.) said. But those votes may not take place if lawmakers block the measures from being debated. McCarthy’s decision to leave Ukraine aid in the pair of appropriations bills will likely spark opposition from Greene, who opposed a procedural vote to advance the Pentagon appropriations bill on Thursday because it included the funding for Kyiv. The congresswoman has come out against sending additional money to Ukraine. McCarthy told reporters that he expects Greene to oppose the procedural vote to advance the four spending bills because of the inclusion of Ukraine aid. “I think Marjorie still has a problem,” McCarthy told reporters. “I think she’ll vote no on the rule if it’s in there, that’s why I was trying to solve it where everybody could be there,” he later added. “But this one, it didn’t work out.”A coalition of House conservatives broke from convention and opposed the rule for the Pentagon appropriations bill twice this week, blocking the legislation from moving forward to debate and a vote on final passage. The failed votes dealt blows to McCarthy, who has sought to move spending bills ahead of a Sept. 30 government funding deadline.

Schumer sets up path for Senate to move first on funding stopgap -- Faced with the House stalemate over a government stopgap funding bill, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Thursday set up a path for the Senate to move first on a bill to fund the government beyond Sept. 30. Schumer filed cloture on a motion to proceed to H.R. 3935, the House-passed bill to reauthorize the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which could serve as a legislative vehicle to pass a continuing resolution to fund government through the Senate. “I have just filed cloture to move forward on FAA. As I have said for months, we must work in a bipartisan fashion to keep our government open, avoid a shutdown, and avoid inflicting unnecessary pain on the American people. This action will give the Senate the option to do just that,” Schumer announced on the Senate floor Thursday afternoon. Traditionally, the House moves first on spending and revenue bills but senators feel they must make the first move to keep the government funded because Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has not been able to round up 218 Republican votes in the House to move a stopgap funding measure. Senate aides say the FAA authorization bill will likely be used as a vehicle to move a clean continuing resolution that would fund the federal government for a few weeks but likely not include money for the war in Ukraine or disaster relief. Senators will spend next week debating and voting on the legislation in hopes of sending it to the House by Wednesday or Thursday of next week. House lawmakers left Washington Thursday after GOP leaders canceled weekend votes but advised their colleagues to be on call to return to the Capitol quickly. The Senate will hold a pro-forma session Friday and not reconvene until 3 pm on Tuesday in observance of Yom Kippur, which ends at sundown Monday. At 5:30 p.m. Tuesday the Senate will vote on the motion to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to the CR vehicle.

Bipartisan House group unveils alternate short-term spending plan amid GOP turmoil --The Problem Solvers Caucus, a bipartisan group of 64 House lawmakers, endorsed a framework to avert a government shutdown that provides an alternative to the internally divisive short-term stopgap being formulated by House Republicans.It also comes as Republicans reported major progress in reworking their continuing resolution framework Wednesday evening, with some conservative lawmakers moving to support the plan in part due to the threat of moderate Republicans working with Democrats to force an alternative. The government shutdown deadline is Sept. 30.The Problem Solvers Caucus agreement released late Wednesday would extend government funding at current levels through Jan. 11, 2024, to give Congress more than three extra months to agree on regular appropriations — much longer than the Oct. 31 target that Republicans are eyeing.“It’s about commonsense governing over extremism — and it’s the way Washington should work,” Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), co-chairman of the caucus, said in a statement.“With divided control of Congress, solutions to issues as critical as funding the federal government demand a two-party solution, with compromises agreed to by both sides,” caucus co-chairman Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) added in a statement. It includes an agreement to pass full-year fiscal 2024 appropriations bills at the spending caps agreed to in the “Fiscal Responsibility Act” debt limit increase bill that Speaker Kevin McCarthy(R-Calif.) negotiated with President Biden. The House has marked up appropriation bills below that figure, as conservatives press GOP leaders for an even lower topline, while the Senate’s appropriations bills have exceeded that target. Along with extending government funding into next year, it would approve Biden’ssupplemental funding request for about $24.1 billion in additional funding for Ukraine — a measure not included in the House GOP plan as many Republicans balk at providing extra assistance.And it would provide some kind of bipartisan “border security solution” with the enforcement through Dec. 31, 2024. The Problem Solvers plan did not get more specific on what a border plan would entail.The Problem Solvers continuing resolution plan would also create some forward-looking measures aiming to prevent fiscal crises in the future, including adopting processes for regular order when passing spending legislation; directing the Comptroller General to issue an annual report on the “fiscal state of the nation”; and directing the president to release a mid-year report on the nation’s budget.Additionally, it would create a fiscal commission to recommend changes to address the national debt and deficit, and require the Congressional Budget Office to consider the cost of servicing the debt in its estimations. Republican members of the group had been teasing an alternative plan for days as frustration with conservative Republicans who opposed the GOP plan grew.“Some of these guys are just not going to vote for anything. I’m of the opinion that we need to work across the aisle, because you got to get Senate support anyway,”

Two GOP moderates say they may work with the Democrats to force vote on funding measure --A pair of GOP congressmen from New York said Thursday that they could be willing to team up with Democrats to force a vote on a government funding bill if Republicans can not pass a continuing resolution amid feuds in the House GOP.Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) committed to backing an alternate method if no compromise is made, while Rep. Mark Molinaro (R-N.Y.) said a discharge petition is “absolutely an option.”Both congressmen have opposed efforts from conservatives to tank temporary government funding measures, with conservative Republicans saying the budget measures don’t cut enough. The government is set to run out of funds at the end of the month.“There’s a [continuing resolution] vote and I stand by that position. I’m not wavering on that position,” Lawler told reporters Thursday. “And if there is not going to be a CR coming out of the House Republican caucus, then I will move forward with a discharge petition,” he said.A discharge petition would move a version of the continuing resolution, presumably one with smaller budget cuts than many Republicans want, to a floor vote with Democratic support.A discharge petition is a rarely-used and cumbersome maneuver that allows the minority party to force a vote on a bill without the support of the Speaker. Such a petition needs signatures from the majority of the House, which means five Republicans would need to sign on.House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has struggled to keep his caucus together on spending bills, causing multiple rules votes to fail during the appropriations process and straining his leadership.A majority of the House GOP is pushing for small cuts to the federal budget, while the party’s conservative wing has voted against measures, pushing for deeper cuts. Some have evenfloated removing McCarthy from his post.Democrats, meanwhile, have so far left the problem to the Republican majority.“Extreme MAGA Republicans temporarily hold the gavels; the extreme MAGA Republicans are responsible for passing the rule,” Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said last week about an appropriations rule vote.

Senate GOP predicts McCarthy will go to Democrats for votes - Senate Republicans are predicting that Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) will need to reach out to House Democrats to get the votes to prevent a government shutdown at the end of next week. GOP senators don’t think McCarthy will be able to unify his entire GOP conference behind any measure to prevent an Oct. 1 shutdown and will have to rely on Democrats to keep federal departments and agencies open. But they predict the Speaker won’t reach out across the aisle until the last possible moment to avoid a backlash from House conservatives, who are threatening to offer a motion to essentially dump him as Speaker if he does not hew to their demands for major spending cuts. The reality, they say, is that the only spending measure that can pass both the Senate and House is one that has bipartisan support. “He’s a new Speaker, this is a test of his Speakership,” said one Republican senator who requested anonymity to discuss party strategy. “Sooner or later he’s going to have to go to [House Democratic Leader] Hakeem Jeffries [N.Y.] because we’re going to get a CR on this side and what will pass here just is not going to get 218 Republicans in the House.” After House Republicans scrapped a Tuesday vote because of divisions within their conference, Republican senators said they now expect the Senate to move first and approve a clean continuing resolution (CR). The measure would have to pass with at least 60 votes in the Senate and then be sent to the House to avoid a government shutdown. Under such a scenario, McCarthy would certainly need Democratic votes to make up for a small group of conservatives who have vowed to oppose any spending bill without steep spending cuts or reforms to U.S. asylum law or Department of Justice and Pentagon policies. “The ultimate outcome will be 218 Republicans and Democrats [who] will pass something that doesn’t have conservative leaning to it,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said. Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), a member of the Appropriations Committee, voiced concern about the looming government funding deadline. “I hope they have a plan,” he said. “I have no idea how they get to where they need to go but they need to get there.” Other Republican senators voiced frustration over McCarthy’s inability to pass a procedural rule necessary to approve the annual defense appropriations bill, legislation that has always been a signature achievement for the party that traditionally prides itself for being strong on defense. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) called the failure to advance the defense bill “very disappointing.” “I’m going to leave it up to him,” Graham said of McCarthy, adding, “The world is a very dangerous place, and we need to get our national defense infrastructure well funded to deter aggression. “The defense appropriation bill is sort of the heart and soul of the Republican Party that I’ve come to know and love, and it’s unnerving to see the defense appropriations bill not able to advance,” Graham said.

Katherine Clark names the Democrats’ price to save Kevin McCarthy --Most of the time, the most irrelevant job in Washington is being a member of the House minority. But something unusual happened in Washington this week: Suddenly everyone was talking about the possibility that the House Democrats might actually matter… …that Democrats might be the key to unlocking the crisis of Speaker Kevin McCarthy losing control of his conference. The federal government runs out of money in eight days. The first step to completing the annual spending bills is to pass a short term extension, a so-called continuing resolution or CR, to keep the government open while things get sorted out. The CR is usually the easy step in the process. But all week McCarthy has tried and failed to pass a CR. He also tried to pass the defense appropriations bill — surely his far-right rebels wouldn’t vote against the Pentagon, right? They did. Twice. McCarthy has effectively lost his majority. And this is where the Democrats could come in. McCarthy’s Plan A is to keep crafting new CRs to try and appease the holdouts until he finally secures a majority — you may recall this is how he won the speakership back in January. But as they watched the chaos on the House floor this week, a bipartisan group started to push another idea: Republicans should band together with Democrats to pass the CR. One way to do this is with a so-called discharge petition that forces a vote. That remains a distant but still live possibility. But the even more intriguing role Democrats could play is a little further down the line. The GOP holdouts have repeatedly threatened McCarthy with a vote to remove him as Speaker. And this week Democrats started to think seriously about how they would vote if that comes to pass. They could all just vote against McCarthy and help the rebels trigger a new speaker election. Nobody really knows which Republican would emerge from that process. Maybe McCarthy could eke out another victory the way he did in January. Maybe someone else pops up to replace him. But Democrats could also lend their votes and save McCarthy from that fate. Of course, they would only do that at a very steep price. So is this all just a fever dream of Washingtonians who watched too much “West Wing”? Or is there some role the Democrats could play to bailout the flailing speaker? Playbook co-author and Deep Dive host Ryan Lizza went up to the Capitol to ask the woman whose job it is to count votes for the Dems: the number two Democratic leader in the House, Minority Whip Katherine Clark. He stopped by her office in the Capitol on Thursday a few hours after McCarthy’s latest appropriations gambit failed. They talked about what it would take for her to help the Speaker; her ideology — a bit of a mystery, according to some of her colleagues; her leadership style; her mentors; whether she feels bad for McCarthy; and the origins of her scary nicknam

Potential Government Shutdown Threatens US Support for Ukraine - The Pentagon has said that the government shutdown that will happen if Congress doesn’t pass a funding bill by September 30 could hinder US support for Ukraine. Pentagon spokesman Chris Sherwood told POLITICO that the Defense Department’s suspension of what is considered nonessential activities expected under a shutdown could interrupt “delivery of defense articles, services and/or military education and training” for Ukraine. During government shutdowns, the US military typically stops activities that are deemed unnecessary for national security, including training. The Pentagon could issue exemptions for the Ukrainian training, but if not, the programs will be forced to stop, including the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s that recently started inside the US. Sherwood said that the Pentagon would still have access to funds to take weapons from military stockpiles for Ukraine, a program known as the Presidential Drawdown Authority. The Pentagon recently claimed billions became available in PDA for Ukraine due to an “accounting error” that overvalued weapons previously sent to the country, and Sherwood said those funds could be rolled into the next fiscal year, which starts on October 1. But Sherwood said the actual deliveries could be stopped if the activity is suspended during the shutdown, regardless of whether or not there is funds for the weapons. The Pentagon would also not be able to dip into the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, a program that allows the US to purchase weapons for Ukraine. A shutdown seems likely as Congress is at odds over a funding bill necessary to avert it. House Republicans put forward a short-term funding bill that would be opposed in the Democrat-controlled Senate since it does not include an additional $24 billion in spending on the war in Ukraine that the White House has requested.

Pentagon Exempts Ukraine Operations from Potential Government Shutdown - The Pentagon will exempt its operations supporting Ukraine in the war against Russia from a government shutdown that will happen if Congress fails to pass a funding bill by September 30.During government shutdowns, the US military typically suspends activities that are deemed not vital to US national security. But Pentagon spokesman Chris Sherwood told POLITICO on Thursday that US support for Ukraine would not be suspended.“Operation Atlantic Resolve is an excepted activity under a government lapse in appropriations,” Sherwood said, using the name for US military activities in Europe that have come in response to events in Ukraine since 2014, the year a US-backed coup in Kyiv led to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the civil war in Ukraine’s Donbas region. US support for Ukraine includes training of Ukrainian forces in the US and in Europe, arms shipments, and providing targeting intelligence. Just two days earlier, Sherwood told POLITICO that US support for Ukraine might be hindered by a shutdown. The POLITICO report on the Pentagon’s decision to exempt the Ukraine operations came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Washington. The Pentagon saidAustin met with Zelensky “to reaffirm the steadfast US support for Ukraine.” The exemption demonstrates the importance the Biden administration has placed on fueling the proxy war in Ukraine. While being done in the name of national security, the policy makes the US much less safe by risking a direct war with Russia, which possesses the world’s largest nuclear arsenal.

GOP senators ask Biden to provide Ukraine with missiles needed to win war - A group of Republican senators sent a letter to President Biden Saturday urging him to “immediately” provide the missiles Ukraine needs to win its war against Russia. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) shared the letter in a post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, arguing that not sending the weapons would “only prolong the war and cost lives.” Cotton was joined by Sens. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C) in his request. “We … urge you to immediately send MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine,” they wrote. “Additional delay will only further undermine U.S. national security interests and extend this conflict.” Providing Ukraine with the missiles could fill a gap in the Ukrainian military’s long-range fires capability, according to the lawmakers. The recent Ukraine strike on the Sevastopol naval port using long-range weapons from the United Kingdom proved the “effectiveness of such weapons” and would maximize future “counteroffensive and follow-on operations,” they said. Their request is urgent, the senators wrote, as there are reportedly 30 days left in the typical fighting season. The Senate Armed Services Committee unanimously approved an amendment to the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act and asked the Department of Defense to consider sending long-range missions to Ukraine. “The U.S. is fully capable of providing these weapons without any appreciable risk to its own combat capability,” the letter said.

Report: Next Arms Package for Ukraine to Include More Cluster Bombs, No ATACMS - President Biden will announce a new weapons package for Ukraine when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits Washington on Thursday, Reuters reported on Wednesday.Sources told Reuters that the package will be worth $325 million and is expected to include the second tranche of widely-banned cluster bombs in the form of 155mm artillery shells. The US began providing Ukraine with cluster munitions in July despite their history of killing and maiming civilians.The cluster munitions the US is providing Ukraine are packed with 72 submunitions, known as bomblets, that are scattered over a large area. Cluster bombs are so hazardous to civilians because many of the submunitions do not explode on impact, and can be found years or decades later.Due to their indiscriminate nature, cluster bombs are banned by over 100 countries by the Convention on Cluster Munitions, but the US, Ukraine, and Russia are not signatories to the treaty.A US official also told Reuters that the new weapons package will not include Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which can be fired from the HIMARS rocket systems and have a range of up to 190 miles. ATACMS have been long sought by Ukraine, and recent media reports said they could be soon on their way, but the White House said this week no decision has been made. Providing ATACMS would mark a significant escalation of US support for Ukraine as they could potentially hit targets inside Russia. When asked earlier this month about Ukraine using ATACMS to target Russian territory, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said targeting decisions are up to Ukraine.Other weapons expected to be in the new arms package include Avenger short-range air defense systems, HIMARS ammunition, TOW and AT-4 anti-tank weapons, and Javelin anti-tank missiles.

Milley and Stoltenberg Say Ukraine's Goals Will Lead to a Long War - The top-ranking American military official and the civilian head of the North Atlantic alliance believe the war in Ukraine will continue for years if Kyiv is to achieve its military goals. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed a decree outlawing talks with Russia and plans to restore Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders.In an interview published Sunday by German outlet Funke Media Group, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance must prepare for a long war. “Most wars last longer than expected when they first begin. Therefore, we must prepare ourselves for a long war in Ukraine.” He continued, “We must recognize that if Zelensky and the Ukrainians stop fighting, their country will no longer exist. If President Putin and Russia stop fighting, we will have peace.”Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark Milley spoke with CNN about his outlook on the war. “There’s well over 200,000 Russian troops in Russian-occupied Ukraine. This offensive, although significant, has operational and tactical objectives that are limited, in the sense that they do not — even if they are fully achieved — they don’t completely kick out all the Russians, which is the broader strategic objective that President Zelensky had,” the general said. “That’s going to take a long time to do that. That’s going to be very significant effort over a considerable amount of time.”“I can tell you that it’ll take a considerable length of time to militarily eject all 200,000 or plus Russian troops out of Russian-occupied Ukraine. That’s a very high bar. It’s going to take a long time to do it,” he added.The assessments come as Kyiv’s war machine has stalled. Last year, Ukraine’s military was able to recapture a significant portion of the Kharkov region. However, Kyiv’s summer offensive has failed to meet its objectives, and Ukraine has sustained substantial losses of troops and equipment.

Russia: The US Is at War Against Us - Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov blasted the US for waging a proxy war in Ukraine. The Washington-led North Atlantic alliance has transferred nearly $100 billion in military aid to Kyiv. Lavrov said the White House was controlling Ukraine’s military decisions.On Sunday Morning at the Eastern Economic Forum, the Russian diplomat explained Moscow’s position. “No matter what it says, it [the US] controls this war, it supplies weapons, munition, intelligence information, data from satellites, it is pursuing a war against us,” Lavrov said.According to the Kiel Institute, the US and its allies have transferredslightly under $100 billion in weapons to Ukraine since the start of the war. Additionally, the West has trained thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and provided Kyiv with other military support, such as targeting and intelligence.Lavrov said the proxy war the West is waging against Russia in Ukraine was a long-planned effort aimed at Moscow’s strategic defeat. He stated, “While what is going on is that Ukraine has been prepared, has long been prepared for inflicting strategic defeat to Russia using its hands and its bodies.” Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported the White House was considering escalating support for Ukraine by sending long-range ATACMS missiles with a range of 190 miles. Lavrov was asked howMoscow may respond if Washington provides Kyiv with the rockets. “I am unable to comment on their statements… but the fact that it will not change the essence of what is going on in Ukraine is obvious,” he explained.The UK has previously sent Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine, with a range of about 300 miles. Ukraine has used those long-range weapons to attack the Crimean Peninsula. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington no longer objects to Kyiv using Western-provided weapons to launch an attack on Russian territory.In separate comments made on Friday, Lavrov said Washington’s effort extends beyond the proxy war in Ukraine to a global campaign to isolate Moscow. He explained that the West attempted to use a recent peace summit held in Saudi Arabia to turn countries against Russia. “There is a real plot around the topic of the so-called (peace) negotiations, as well as attempts to turn everything upside down through pseudo diplomacy,” he said. “The West has been saying for months that this ‘peace formula’ is the only basis for negotiations. It starts from innocent topics … and then comes to the purpose for which it was concocted – inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia, to restore the borders of Ukraine as they were in 1991, court-martial the Russian leadership, force Russia to pay reparations, and then ‘mercifully’ agree to sign a peace agreement.” He added, “These are exactly the dirty methods that the West uses not only in relation to Ukraine but in many other areas of global politics.”

Biden's UN General Assembly Speech Aimed at Russia Exposes US Hypocrisy -President Biden took aim at Russia at the UN General Assembly in New York on Tuesday in a speech that revealed US hypocrisy on the war in Ukraine and other issues. Discussing arms control, President Biden accused Russia of “shredding longstanding arms control agreements,” mentioning that Moscow suspended its participation in New START, the last nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia. Biden’s rhetoric omits the fact that the US withdrew from several arms control treaties in the years leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In 2019, the Trump administration pulled out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which banned ground-launched short and medium-range missiles. In 2020, the US exited Open Skies, a treaty that allowed the US, Russia, and other signatories to conduct unarmed surveillance flights over each other’s territory. At the time, then-presidential candidate Biden slammed the move, but his administration declined Russia’s offer to salvage the treaty in 2021. Back in 2002, the George W. Bush administration pulled out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems Treaty, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has cited as the reason for developing the Sarmat ICBM, Russia’s most powerful missile that can pack a huge nuclear payload and travel 11,000 miles. A Russian official recently said the Sarmat was placed on combat duty for the first time. Shifting to the war in Ukraine, President Biden called the conflict “an illegal war of conquest, brought without provocation by Russia against its neighbor, Ukraine.” While Biden claims the war was unprovoked, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg recently acknowledged that Putin invaded to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO after the US and the alliance refused to provide a guarantee that Kyiv would never become a member. In the early days of the war, the US and its allies discouraged peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that one goal of US involvement in the conflict was to “weaken” Russia. Ahead of Ukraine’s counteroffensive —which US officials expected not to succeed — Secretary of State Antony Blinken rejected the idea of a ceasefire in Ukraine. Biden urged for continued support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, saying an aggressor cannot be appeased and that Ukraine can’t give up its territory. “If we allow Ukraine to be carved up, is the independence of any nation secure?” Biden administration officials often say territorial borders cannot change under international law when explaining their opposition to a peace deal that would involve Ukraine ceding territory to Russia. But as a senator, President Biden was a staunch supporter of the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, which broke up the country and carved Kosovo out of Serb territory. To this day, Kosovo is not recognized by much of the world, including ethnic Serbs living within Kosovo’s borders. Biden also led the charge in the Senate before the 2003 invasion of Iraq to whip up Democratic support for the aggressive war that was based on the lie that Saddam Hussein possessed WMDs. In 2006, then-Senator Biden proposed carving Iraq into three regions based on ethnic and religious divisions, a plan he devised with the help of one of his Senate aides, Antony Blinken.

McCarthy Says He Plans to Question Zelensky About Ukraine Aid - House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Tuesday that he would question Ukrainian President Volodoymr Zelensky about the money the US has spent on the war in Ukraine when the two meet later this week. When asked if he would commit to more aid for Ukraine, McCarthy said, “Is Zelenskyy elected to Congress? Is he our president? I don’t think I have to commit anything and I think I have questions for him.” “Where’s the accountability on the money we’ve already spent? What is the plan for victory? I think that’s what the American public wants to know,” McCarthy added.Zelensky is headed to Washington after the UN General Assembly in New York and is expected to press Congress to authorize the additional $24 billion in spending on the war that President Biden has requested. The White House wants Congress to include the new Ukraine aid in a stop-gap funding bill that needs to pass before September 30 to avert a government shutdown. But the resolution McCarthy has put forwarddoes not include the Ukraine spending, angering Democrats. “And with no Ukraine funding, the proposal is an insult to Ukraine and a gift to Putin. I cannot think of a worse welcome for Zelensky who visits us this week than this House proposal, which ignores Ukraine entirely,”said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) on Monday. Since McCarthy’s resolution does not include the Ukraine funding, it has no chance of passing the Senate.

McCarthy rejected Zelensky’s request to address Congress during visit --Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) declined a request from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to address Congress Thursday, saying there was not enough time. “Zelensky asked us for a joint session; we just didn’t have time,” McCarthy told reporters on Capitol Hill, according to videos of the exchange. The comments come as the House is struggling to advance funding bills with a deadline looming at the end of the month and with continued financial support for Ukraine one of the sticking points among conservatives. Zelensky, who addressed a joint session of Congress during his last visit in December, traveled to Washington Thursday to meet with lawmakers on Capitol Hill as he seeks to shore up support for more U.S. aid in the fight against Russia. While the entire Senate met with Zelensky in the Old Senate Chamber, only a select few House leaders attended a meeting on the other side of Capitol Hill. McCarthy said the Zelensky meeting was no different than previous ones the House has held with foreign leaders. “What we’re doing for Zelensky is the exactly the same thing we did for the prime minister of the U.K., the prime minister of Italy,” he said. Approved U.S. aid for Ukraine is running out fast, and Congress will soon need to approve another package. President Biden has requested $24 billion in additional funding, but there remains no clear path to passing a supplemental in Congress at the moment, which is currently ensnared in a crisis to keep the government funded.

Twenty-Eight Republicans Tell Biden They're Against More Ukraine Aid Amid Zelensky Visit - A group of 28 Republicans in the House and Senate released a letter to the White House on Thursday saying they’re opposed to authorizing more spending on the Ukraine war as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Washington.The Republicans said there were too many unanswered questions related to what the US goals were in Ukraine and how long the conflict will last. “For these reasons — and certainly until we receive answers to the questions above and others forthcoming — we oppose the additional expenditure for war in Ukraine included in your request,” they wrote. President Biden has asked for an additional $24 billion for Ukraine, which would bring total US spending on the proxy war to about $137 billion. The White House and Democrats in Congress want to include the money in a funding bill that needs to be passed before September 30 to avert a government shutdown. But the prospect seems unlikely as the Republican-controlled House is battling over spending levels and has failed to move forward with its Pentagon funding bill. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) also did not include the $24 billion in new Ukraine aid in the House stop-gap funding bill that would avert a shutdown, which is not expected to pass as it is. The aid is expected to ultimately get approved, but not as quickly as the White House would like. Even some Republicans in the House who support spending more on the Ukraine war say it’s not a priority since the Pentagon still has billions to use to ship weapons that was made available by a Pentagon “accounting error” that overvalued previous arms shipments. The situation in Washington is much different than when Zelensky last visited in December 2022, when he was given a hero’s welcome and spoke before Congress. McCarthy said that he declined a request for the Ukrainian leader to address a joint session of Congress this time aroundbecause “we just didn’t have time.” Instead of a dramatic speech, Zelensky held a closed-door meeting with dozens of Senators and separate talks with some members of the House.POLITICO reported that Ukraine aid “skeptics”were not swayed by the Ukrainian leader’s visit. After meeting with Congress, Zelensky headed to the Pentagon and the White House, where he received pledges for a new weapons package and long-term support. Despite Ukraine’s faltering counteroffensive, the Biden administration is determined to continue fueling the proxy war for as long as possible.

Biden Gives Ukraine More Cluster Bombs During Zelensky Visit - President Biden met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday and announced a new tranche of US military aid for Ukraine that includes more cluster bombs, which are notorious for killing and maiming civilians.The arms package is worth $325 million and uses the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which allows Biden to ship arms directly from US military stockpiles. The $325 million is being pulled from funds that became available after the Pentagon said it overvalued previous arms shipments to Ukraine, an “accounting error” that freed up an additional $6.2 billion in PDA to fuel the war.The cluster bombs, known as dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICM), are provided in the form of 155mm artillery rounds, which spread small sub-munitions over a large area. The arms package also includes air defense systems, HIMARS ammunition, other artillery rounds, and other equipment.When announcing the arms package, President Biden said the first batch of Abrams tanks will be delivered to Ukraine next week. The tanks will bearmed with depleted uranium rounds, a toxic ammunition linked to cancer and birth defects.According to the Pentagon, the $325 million arms package includes the following:

AIM-9M missiles for air defense
Additional ammunition for HIMARS
Avenger air defense systems
.50 caliber machine guns to counter Unmanned Aerial Systems
155mm artillery rounds, including DPICM
105mm artillery rounds
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
Over 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition
59 light tactical vehicles
Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing
Spare parts, maintenance, and other field equipment

The US sent its first shipment of cluster bombs to Ukraine in July. To do so, President Biden had to bypass US law that prohibits the transfer of cluster munitions with a higher than 1% dud rate, which refers to the percentage of submunitions that are left unexploded and can be found by civilians for years or decades after the conflict.According to The New York Times, the cluster munitions sent to Ukraine are expected to have a dud rate of about 14%. To get around the law, Biden invoked an obscure provision of the Foreign Assistance Act that allows the US to provide weapons regardless of export controls if the president determines doing so is vital for national security.Due to their indiscriminate nature, cluster bombs are banned by more than 100 countries under the Convention on Cluster Munitions, but the US, Ukraine, and Russia are not signatories to that treaty. As the US has been pouring cluster bombs into Ukraine, other countries have been destroying their stockpiles.

Biden: First US Abrams tanks to arrive in Ukraine next week - The first U.S. Abrams tanks allocated for Ukraine will arrive there next week, President Biden said during a White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Biden vowed during the meeting with Zelensky and other officials from Ukraine and the White House that his administration would continue to support the war effort against invading Russian forces. The president said Thursday he approved the next tranche of U.S. security assistance for Ukraine, which included additional artillery and ammunition, launchers and interceptors and more anti-tank weapons. The president in January agreed to send 31 Abrams tanks to help Ukrainian forces defend themselves from Russia’s invasion, a reversal from when the administration initially argued the tanks would be of little benefit to Ukraine. The tanks had to be procured, and Ukrainian forces had to be trained on the machines. The U.S. is also focused on improving Ukraine’s air defense capabilities so it can protect infrastructure that provides heat and light as it prepares for winter. Biden in prepared remarks said ongoing U.S. support for Ukraine is about “the future of freedom.” “America can never, will never walk away from that,” he said. “That’s why 575 days later, we stand with Ukraine, and we’ll continue to stand with Mr. President.”

White House Close To Providing Kiev With Cluster-Armed ATACMS - The White House is close to deciding it will provide Ukraine with a cluster-armed version of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which has a range of nearly 200 miles and can be fired from HIMARS launchers, according to the Washington Post. The HIMARS in Kyiv’s possession are currently firing munitions with a range of 50 miles. The US arming Ukrainian forces with ATACMS would mark a significant escalation in the proxy war with Russia and cross Moscow’s “red line.”Sending ATACMS was ruled out until recently over concerns that the weapons could be used by Kyiv for attacks inside Crimea and the Russian mainland. However, for months, as Kyiv has launched more attacks against Russian territory and previous US concerns of escalation waned, there have been reports saying that the White House was increasingly considering sending the ATACMS to Ukraine.Earlier this month, during an appearance on ABC’s ‘This Week,’ Secretary of State Blinken was asked if he approved of Ukraine using the US-provided ATACMS to carry out strikes deep inside Russian territory. “In terms of their targeting decisions, it’s their decision, not ours,” Blinken stated emphatically.As the Post has previously reported, the Discord Leaks revealed that “behind closed doors, [President Volodymyr Zelensky] has proposed going in a more audacious direction… privately pining for long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia’s borders, according to classified US intelligence documents detailing his internal communications with top aides and military leaders.”Kyiv is currently carrying out myriad drone strikes in Crimea and Russia, which rely on US targeting intelligence.The plan to provide ATACMS was postponed ultimately because there were not enough kept in US stocks, and officials said arming Kyiv with the long-range missiles would have a negative effect on the Pentagon’s readiness for other wars and conflicts.Although, sources speaking with the Post explain that now the White House is instead planning on sending a version of the ATACMS armed with cluster submunitions, or bomblets, as opposed to a single or “unitary” warhead.The cluster-armed version of the ATACMS is not considered a front-line US weapon anymore and is in much more plentiful supply. Kyiv is requesting hundreds of these missiles.

Biden agrees to send long-range missiles to Ukraine - President Joe Biden promised his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that the United States will soon provide Kyiv with a small number of long-range missiles to help its war with Russia, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the matter. Biden made the pledge to Zelenskyy during the Ukrainian leader’s visit to the White House on Thursday, fulfilling a long-held wish by Kyiv, according to the officials who like others for this story were granted anonymity to speak about private conversations. The Army Tactical Missile Systems will likely be delivered to Ukraine in the coming weeks. The White House declined to comment on the matter The news is a major win for Zelenskyy and officials in Kyiv, who have long sought the missiles. ATACMS have a range of 45 to 190 miles and Ukrainians have long argued that they are crucial to striking deep behind entrenched Russian positions along a 600-mile front line. NBC first reported the news that the missiles had been approved. Biden administration officials still insist that ATACMS won’t be a magic bullet. The 18-month war is still an artillery battle and advances are measured in feet, not miles. Clearing mines occupies soldiers’ time, stifling any swift maneuvers to retake territory. The newly supplied missiles will help Ukraine’s cause, then, but they won’t prove a game-changing weapon, U.S. officials assert. Depending on when the missiles arrive, they will add to the pressure that Ukraine has been putting on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet based in Crimea in recent weeks. On Friday, Ukraine used long-range missiles to hit the fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol, after previously hitting drydocks holding a Russian warship and a submarine. Complicating matters is that U.S. and European military officials estimate Ukraine has only another few weeks left to achieve key objectives in the counteroffensive before winter weather sets in and makes the fighting more difficult.

State Department Confirms US Citizen Gonzalo Lira Is Detained in Ukraine - The State Department has confirmed that American citizen Gonzalo Lira is being held in a Ukrainian prison over charges related to his speech and views on the war in Ukraine.Lira is a popular YouTuber and journalist who was arrested by the Ukrainian Security Services (SBU) in May for creating content that was critical of the Ukrainian government and explaining how the Russia-Ukraine war was provoked. He was charged over claims that he “justified the Russian invasion.” Lira, who is also a citizen of Chile, reappeared on social media in July when he posted a video and Twitter thread saying he was released on bail and was attempting to cross the border into Hungary. He alleged that he was tortured while in a Ukrainian prison and said if he was not heard from again, it meant he was captured by Ukrainian authorities. “We are aware of the detention of Mr. Lira in Ukraine. We take our role in assisting US citizens abroad seriously and are providing all appropriate assistance,” a State Department spokesperson told Breitbart News on Tuesday. The Breitbart report noted that the confirmation of a US citizen being held in Ukraine for his speech comes as President Biden is looking for an additional $24 billion in spending on the proxy war in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is currently in the US and is expected to visit the White House and Capitol Hill on Thursday to make the pitch for more aid. During his speech at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, Biden described the funding of the proxy war in Ukraine as “not only an investment in Ukraine’s future, but in the future of every country that seeks a world governed by basic rules.”

Nikki Haley calls Trump ‘weak in the knees’ on Ukraine - Presidential candidate Nikki Haley criticized Trump’s foreign policy during a campaign stop in Portsmouth, N.H., on Thursday, saying he is “weak in the knees” on Ukraine policy.When asked how Trump will be remembered, she gave the former president several compliments, tip-toeing around being too overtly negative about the GOP primary’s frontrunner.“He was the right president at the right time,” Haley said. “He broke things that needed to be broken. He listened and brought in a group of people who felt unheard.”But she also had her fair share of critiques.“He was thin-skinned and easily distracted. He didn’t do anything on fiscal policy and really spent a lot of money and we’re paying the price for it,” she said. “He used to be good on foreign policy and now he has started to walk it back and get weak in the knees when it comes to Ukraine.”Haley has been one of the strongest supporters of Ukraine military aid in the GOP primary while Trump has wavered, failing to take a strong side.Trump has repeatedly said he would bring peace to the war between Ukraine and Russia if he is elected, but has not elaborated on how that would be achieved. He’s also urged slowdowns for aid to Ukraine, but has not gone as far as some other GOP rivals who have sought to halt it permanently.

Sullivan Holds 'Constructive' Talks with Chinese FM, Amid Soaring Tensions -National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan held 12 hours of meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Malta this weekend, potentially paving the way for leader-level discussions later this year. Although the talks come as tensions are soaring between the world’s two largest economies, the meeting has been described as “candid, substantive and constructive,” according to separate statements published Sunday by the White House and the Chinese Foreign Ministry.Reportedly, the US side declared its readiness to collaborate with Beijing on the issues of counter-narcotics, artificial intelligence, and climate change. Both Washington and Beijing agreed to maintain these high-level exchanges and continue holding bilateral consultations covering foreign policy, Asia-Pacific affairs, and maritime affairs, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said.Similarly, the White House is strongly suggesting there will be more talks in the near term, saying the two sides “committed to maintain this strategic channel of communication and to pursue additional high-level engagement and consultations in key areas…in the coming months.”A senior White House official said Sullivan also “stressed that China should not try to aid Russia in its war on Ukraine.” This echoes a months-old propaganda claim originally made by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, without evidence, during his meeting with Wang in February. The White House official conceded to reporters China has not provided Moscow with any substantial weaponry. Beijing deniesWashington’s accusation which is based on “scant intelligence,” according to an official from a G7 country speaking to Reuters.The official also said “there have been some small or limited indications” that Beijing is willing to re-open cross-military communications—used to deescalate conflicts—which were cut off by China after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s provocative visit to Taipei last August. Beijing has not commented on the prospect of re-opening these channels. When Pelosi left the island, China launched the largest-ever military drills around the island. Sullivan is said to have expressed concerns about Beijing recently sending fighter jets across the sensitive but informal median line separating the Taiwan Strait. This is a regular occurrence now as China has maintained the military pressure on Taiwan since Pelosi’s visit, but this almost never happened until Washington began sending high level officials to the island which Beijing views as a serious violation of the One-China principle. Between 1954 and 2020, Beijing flew only four military flights over the median line. From September 2020 until August 2022, there were still fewer than 25 such flights. In August of 2022, however, the People’s Liberation Army flew 302 sorties over the unofficial barrier, “all coming after [Pelosi’s] visit,” as Japan Times reported.For years, Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu has been sanctioned by Washington over his role in China’s purchases of Russian military equipment. As a result of the White House’s refusal to lift the sanctions, since taking up his post, he has refused to meet with Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin. Beijing has emphasized the sanctions must be lifted if there are to be diplomatic talks with Li going forward. In June, Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said, “the U.S. side knows the reason for difficulties in its military-to-military relations with China.” Liu continued, “[the US] actually imposed unilateral sanctions on China… Such obstacles should be removed before any exchange and cooperation could take place.”

US Deploys Drone Ships Near China for the First Time - Two US Navy drone ships have arrived in Yokosuka, Japan, marking the first US deployment of unmanned vessels aimed at China in the western Pacific.“The unmanned surface vessels (USVs) Ranger and Mariner from Unmanned Surface Vessel Division ONE (USVDIV-1) arrived at Fleet Activities Yokosuka on September 18,” the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet said in a press release on Thursday.The Wall Street Journal first reported on the deployment and noted that the vessels are testing surveillance and attack capabilities in the region that the US Navy will find useful against China. The drone ships are not equipped with missiles but are capable of carrying and launching them. The Seventh Fleet said the two ships were participating in Integrated Battle Problem (IBP) 23.2, a Pacific Fleet exercise designed to “test, develop and evaluate the integration of unmanned platforms into fleet operations to create warfighting advantages.”The US has deployed smaller drone boats to the Middle East to patrol waters near Iran, but they are less sophisticated than the Ranger, Mariner, and other vessels classified as USVs.The US has been investing heavily in new weapons technologies as part of its preparations for a war with China. The USVs are part of a program known as Ghost Fleet Overlord that started in 2018 to integrate drone ships into the Navy. While capable of operating unmanned, the 190-foot Ranger was sent to Japan with a crew of 16 for monitoring purposes.

China Conducts Drills in the Yellow Sea in Response to US Activity - The Chinese navy is conducting drills in the Yellow Sea after the US held joint naval exercises in the waters off northern China with Canada and South Korea.The US drills were carried out last week and included an amphibious ready group led by the USS America, an amphibious assault ship that can carry certain types of aircraft, including F-35 fighter jets. According toThe South China Morning Post, the drills marked the largest US show of force in the Yellow Sea in 10 years.South Korea’s Defense Ministry said the warships drilled on tactical maneuvers and helicopter operations. After the exercises, the warships sailed to Incheon, a city on South Korea’s west coast, to commemorate the 73rd anniversary of the Korean War battle of Incheon.While done in the name of countering North Korea, the drills in the Yellow Sea came amid a US military buildup in the Asia Pacific that’s explicitly aimed at China. Tensions are soaring between the US and Beijing due to the increased US military activity in other waters near China, including the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.Analysts told the Post that China’s drills in the Yellow Sea were a “tit-for-tat” move. Chinese authorities announced two separate drills, taking place in the northern Yellow Sea near the Bohai Strait. One set of exercises took place from September 18-19, while the other started on September 17 and will conclude on September 24.Global Times, a Chinese state English language media outlet, slammed the US drills in the Yellow Sea, saying it was part of a strategy to encircle China.“The US is changing its 10-year low-key manner in the Yellow Sea, demonstrating that it is integrating all the forces it can use in the Northeast Asia region, the East China Sea, the Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea into a unified chain to contain China under its framework of Indo-Pacific Strategy,” wrote Global Times contributor Li Nan.

Milley: Chinese Spy Balloon Collected No Intelligence - In February, a Chinese balloon floated over the US, prompting politicians on both sides of the aisle to claim Beijing was threatening Americans. The event led American officials to cancel high-level meetings with their Chinese diplomats. Seven months later, Gen. Mark Milley said the balloon never collected intelligence. Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, told “CBS News Sunday Morning” the US intelligence community does not believe the craft collected intelligence but still maintained it was a “spy balloon.” America’s top general said, “The intelligence community, their assessment – and it’s a high-confidence assessment – [is] that there was no intelligence collection by that balloon.” Milley continued, “I would say it was a spy balloon that we know with a high degree of certainty got no intelligence, and didn’t transmit any intelligence back to China.” In Early February, a large balloon was spotted in the northern US. The craft was immediately claimed to be a spy craft by American officials. Secretary of State Antony Blinken slammed Beijing’s decision to fly the balloon over the US as “both unacceptable and irresponsible.” America’s top diplomat then canceled a meeting with the Chinese Foreign Minister.On Sunday, Milley, who is retiring later this month, explained that the Chinese balloon ended up over the US due to unexpected weather. “Those winds are very high,” the general said. “The particular motor on that aircraft can’t go against those winds at that altitude.”From the start, Beijing has contested Washington’s claims that the craft was intended for surveillance, insisting it was merely a weather balloon for scientific purposes. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Washington’s response to the balloon damaged bilateral relations. “This is a clear overreaction that seriously contravenes the spirit of international law and customary international practice,” he explained. “What the US did has had a grave impact on the efforts and progress made by China and the US in stabilizing bilateral relations.”

US to Establish New Space Force Command Post in Japan - The US is planning to open a Space Force command post in Japan as it’s looking to increase its space capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region as part of the buildup aimed at China.Last year, the US established Space Force command posts in Hawaii and South Korea, which both fall under US Indo-Pacific Command. When President Biden hosted the leaders of South Korea and Japan at Camp David last month, the three nations agreed to increase space cooperation.Maj. Charles Taylor, deputy commander of Space Forces Korea, told Stars and Stripes that there was already a small number of Space Force members, known as guardians, in Japan. Taylor declined to say where the Space Force command post will be located in Japan or how many personnel will be stationed there.The US military has said the purpose of its Space Force base in South Korea is for “space operations and services such as missile warnings … and satellite communications with the region.” Chinese military experts told The South China Morning Post that the establishment of the Space Force outposts in East Asia would fuel a US-China space race.“The new deployment shows Joe Biden’s administration is continuing Donald Trump’s space strategy of building the Space Force as a powerful arm with both offensive and defensive capabilities,” said Song Zhongpin, a former People’s Liberation Army instructor.“But it will encourage militarisation in space, and lead to an arms race in outer space among capable countries, especially Beijing and Washington,” Song added.

Canada’s explosive claims against India put US in a pinch -The U.S. is caught in the middle of a diplomatic war between India and Canada, after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegations that Indian agents were behind the killing of a Sikh Separatist leader in the country. The explosive allegation comes amid the Biden administration’s charm offensive toward India as a key bulwark against China, with many questioning the U.S. relationship with India’s controversial prime minister, Narendra Modi. The U.S. reportedly worked closely with Canada in investigating the apparent murder on its soil. President Biden has not publicly commented on the allegations, highlighting the tricky balancing act of standing by Canada without alienating India. All eyes are now on whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will present evidence to support his claims and just how bad relations between Ottawa and New Delhi will get before the U.S. is forced to step in. Since Trudeau’s public allegations against India on Tuesday, relations between the two countries have hit rock bottom, while Canada has received no public support from its allies backing up the claim. Vivek Dehejia, professor of economics and an India-Canada policy expert at Carleton University in Ottawa, told The Hill that Canadian officials and Trudeau assumed they would get “unconditional support from their allies and from the U.S. in particular.” “They have been disappointed by the level of support that they have received. If you look carefully at [national security adviser] Jake Sullivan’s recent comments, he’s walking a tightrope because Canada’s very dramatic allegations have put the U.S. and other NATO allies in a bind,” he added. On Thursday, Sullivan offered a vague statement in support of Canada’s “undertaking in this investigation” and said the U.S. has also “been in touch” with India’s government. “It is a matter of concern for us. It is something we take seriously. It is something we will keep working on, and we will do that regardless of the country,” he told reporters at the White House on Thursday. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. was “coordinating” with Canada on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly on Friday, and called for India to cooperate in the ongoing probe. “We want to see accountability. And it’s important that the investigation run its course and lead to that result,” Blinken told reporters in New York.

Five Americans Released as Part of Prisoner Swap Deal With Iran - Five Iranian Americans arrived in Qatar on Monday after being released by Iranian authorities as part of a prisoner swap deal between Washington and Tehran that was mediated by Doha and unfroze $6 billion in Iranian funds.The five Americans were greeted by US and Qatari officials and given a brief medical check before boarding a government plane headed for Washington. In exchange for Iran releasing the Americans, the US released five Iranians and dropped charges against them.Two of the released Iranians also arrived in Qatar on Monday and are headed to Iran. According to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, the other three are not returning to Iran. One will join his family in a third country, and two decided to stay in the US.According to Iran’s PressTV, Iran’s Central Bank chief said the $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue that the US agreed to release was now in Qatar. The money was transferred from South Korea, where it was frozen in 2018 when the US tore up the nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, by reimposing sanctions on Iran.The prisoner swap suggests there may be more room for diplomatic maneuvering between the US and Iran on a new nuclear deal, although a Biden administration official downplayed the idea. “If we see an opportunity, we will explore it, but right now, I’ve really nothing to talk about,” the official said, according to NBC News. In another sign that the US isn’t interested in more diplomacy with Iran, the US issued new sanctions on Iran at the end of last week.

US issues more sanctions over Iran drone program after nation's president denies supplying Russia (AP) — The U.S. on Tuesday imposed sanctions on seven people and four companies in China, Russia and Turkey who officials allege are connected with the development of Iran’s drone program.The U.S. accuses Iran of supplying Russia with drones used to bomb Ukrainian civilians as the Kremlin continues its invasion of Ukraine.The latest development comes after Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi denied his country had sent drones to Russia for use in the war in Ukraine.“We are against the war in Ukraine,” President Raisi said Monday as he met with media executives on the sidelines of the world’s premier global conference, the high-level leaders’ meeting at the U.N. General Assembly.The parties sanctioned Tuesday by Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control include: An Iranian drone company previously sanctioned in 2008, now doing business as Shahin Co., its managing executives, a group of Russian parts manufacturers and two Turkish money exchangers, Mehmet Tokdemir and Alaaddin Aykut.Treasury said the action builds on a set of sanctions it issued last March, when Treasury sanctioned 39 firms linked to an alleged shadow banking system that helped to obfuscate financial activity between sanctioned Iranian firms and their foreign buyers, namely for petrochemicals produced in Iran.Brian E. Nelson, Treasury’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said Iran’s “continued, deliberate proliferation” of its drone program enables Russia “and other destabilizing actors to undermine global stability.”

US Discussing Mutual Defense Treaty With Saudi Arabia Similar to Japan, South Korea - US and Saudi officials are discussing the terms of a potential mutual defense treaty that would be similar to pacts the US has with South Korea and Japan, The New York Times reported on Tuesday.The discussions are part of a US effort to broker a normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Riyadh’s main demands for normalization is for stronger security guarantees from the US and help in establishing a nuclear program.Unnamed US officials told the Times that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman regards a mutual defense agreement with the US “as the most important element in his talks with the Biden administration about Israel.”Such an agreement would likely involve the US and Saudi Arabia pledging to provide military support if the other is attacked on Saudi territory or elsewhere in the Middle East. The comparison to the US pacts in East Asia suggests it could lead to a more robust US military presence in Saudi Arabia, as there are tens of thousands of US troops stationed in Japan and South Korea. While the Saudis are making demands of the US as a condition for normalization with Israel, there are signs a deal likely won’t be reached anytime soon. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday said a Saudi-Israeli normalization remains a “difficult proposition.” Two days later, the Saudi newspaper Elaph recently reported that Riyadh had pulled out of the negotiations, but the claim was denied by both the US and Israel.If the US does pursue a mutual defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, it would risk escalating the war in Yemen, where a de facto ceasefire between the Saudis and the Houthis has been held since April 2022. There have been no Saudi airstrikes in Yemen or Houthi attacks inside Saudi Arabia, but a lasting peace deal or political settlement has not been signed, meaning the war could reignite.The US-backed Saudi-led war on Yemen had a devastating toll on civilians due to the targeting of civilians and infrastructure and the blockade on the country, which has not been fully lifted. News of the Biden administration discussing the East Asia model for a Saudi mutual defense pact comes after a Human Rights Watch report said Saudi border forces killed hundreds of Ethiopian migrants.

Trump shares post bashing ‘liberal Jews who voted to destroy America’ --Former President Trump late Sunday shared an image on Truth Social telling “liberal Jews” to “make better choices” amid celebrations of the Jewish New Year. Trump shared a photo on Sunday evening without any caption of his own. The photo included the message: “Just a quick reminder for liberal Jews who voted to destroy America & Israel because you believed false narratives! Let’s hope you learned from your mistake & make better choices moving forward! Happy New Year!” The image included a list of measures Trump took while in the White House in support of Israel, including his decision to move the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights territory. It also included the hashtags “#Trump2020” and “#Jexit,” a term some Republicans coined during the 2020 election urging Jewish voters to back Trump. Trumpshared the post at the end of Rosh Hashanah, which is the celebration of the Jewish New Year. The post drew criticism from liberals, as well as some Republicans. “Confirmed: this is a real post on Trump’s Truth Social. Waaaake up, @GOP. This is disgraceful,” former Trump communications director Alyssa Farah posted on X, formerly known as Twitter. Trump frequently touted himself as Israel’s greatest ally, but he has on multiple occasions attacked Jewish voters who do not support him.

Sen. Menendez Indicted on Corruption Scheme Benefiting Egyptian Government - Senator Robert Menendez, his wife, and three businessmen have all been indicted by a federal grand jury in a corruption scheme. The New Jersey Democrat and his spouse, Nadine Menendez, allegedly received hundreds of thousands of dollars in exchange for enriching and protecting the three men and supporting the Egyptian government. The scandal has caused Menendez to step down as head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.The Department of Justice announced the indictment on Friday. Menendez is among the most powerful men in the upper house of Congress as he chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The indictment reads, “From at least 2018 up to and including in or about 2022, [Menendez] and Nadine Menendez engaged in a corrupt relationship with three New Jersey associates and businessmen – Will Hana, Jose Uribe, and Fred Daibes.” It continues, “Menendez and Nadine Menendez agreed to and did accept hundreds of thousands of dollars of bribes in exchange for using Menendez’s power and influence as a Senator to seek to protect and enrich Hana, Uribe, and Daibes and to benefit the Arab Republic of Egypt.” The indictment added, “Those bribes included cash, gold, payments toward a home mortgage, compensation for a low-or-no-show job, a luxury vehicle, and other things of value.” The DoJ believes it located over $500,000 in bribe money and other assets. Menendez faced corruption charges in 2017 and was not convicted due to a hung jury. The Senator and his wife have denied the changes in the DoJ indictment. The co-defendants have also denied involvement. Hana is an Egyptian-American who owns IS EG Halal Certified, Inc. According to the company’s LinkedIn page, it “is the only entity exclusively authorized by the Government of Egypt to certify Halal exports worldwide.” Hana is a business associate of Uribe and Daibes. Daibes is a New Jersey developer who pled guilty is banking crimes last year and is scheduled to be sentenced in October. The real estate businessman has been able to delay his sentencing four times. During the period, he inked a $45 million development agreement with the Qatari government.Regarding the scheme to aid Cario, the indictment explains, “Menendez promised to and did use his influence and power and breach his official duty in ways that benefited the Government of Egypt and Will Hana, an Egyptian-American businessman, among others. Among other actions, Menendez provided sensitive US Government information and took other steps that secretly aided the Government of Egypt.” Additionally, the document alleges, “Menendez improperly advised and pressured an official at the US Department of Agriculture for the purpose of protecting a business monopoly granted to Hana by Egypt and used in part to fund the bribes being paid to Menendez through [his wife].”The DoJ believes Menendez wielded his influence on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to steer US policy for Egypt. “As the Ranking Member and then the Chairman, and therefore possessed influence over the Executive Branch’s decisions to provide foreign military sales, foreign military financing, and other aid or support to or for the benefit of the Government of Egypt,” the indictment states.Cairo is one of the largest US military aid recipients at over $1 billion annually. Egypt is also notorious for human rights abuses. According to the State Department 2022 Human Rights Report on Cario, it found substantial abuses by the government. Human rights abuses include “unlawful or arbitrary killings, including extrajudicial killings by the government or its agents; enforced disappearance by state security; torture and cases of cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment by the government; harsh and life-threatening prison conditions; arbitrary arrest and detention; political prisoners or detainees; transnational repression against individuals in another country; arbitrary or unlawful interference with privacy; serious abuses in a conflict, including reportedly enforced disappearances, abductions, physical abuses, and unlawful or widespread civilian deaths or harm,” a short portion of the State Department report reads.Cairo is led by General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who swept to power in a 2014 military coup. Since taking over as president, Sisi has imprisoned and suppressed all political rivals to cement his hold on power.While President Joe Biden states that his foreign policy is centered on respect for human rights and upholding democracy, Washington has continued to fund and arm the Egyptian military under the current administration. Last week, the White House announced it would slightly curb aid to Egypt. Washington plans to take $85 million in foreign ministry aid for Cairo and redirect the aid to Taipei. Still, Egypt is set to receive over $1.2 billion in American taxpayer dollars for weapons this year.Last year, Washington approved arms sales totaling over $2.5 billion to Cario. Under the deals, Egypt can acquire Chinook helicopters, transport aircraft, and small arms.The investigation believes Menendez likely had an influence over the weapon sales and aid approvals for Cario. “As a matter of longstanding, voluntary practice, the State Department would typically not proceed with a transfer of foreign military financing grant money to Egypt’s bank account or with a foreign military sale to Egypt, while the Chairman or the Ranking Member of the SFRC had not signed off on, and was maintaining a “hold” on, such a transfer or sale.” The indictment adds, “As a result, at all times relevant to the Indictment, Menendez, as the Chairman or the Ranking Member of the SFRC, possessed substantial influence over foreign military sales and foreign military financing to Egypt.” Additionally, Menendez passed information deemed sensitive to Cario through Hana and Nadine. “[The Senator] again met with Hana on or about May 6, 2018. Later that same day, Menendez sought from the State Department non-public information regarding the number and nationality of persons serving at the US Embassy in Cairo. Although this information was not classified, it was deemed highly sensitive because it could pose significant operational security concerns if disclosed to a foreign government or if made public.” the prosecutors state in the indictment. “Without telling his professional staff, SFRC staff, or the State Department that he was doing so, on or about May 7, 2018, Menendez texted that sensitive, non-public embassy information to his then-girlfriend Nadine. [She] forwarded this message to Hana, who forwarded it to an Egyptian government official.”

GOP governors push Biden on border: ‘Shelters are full, food pantries empty’ Republican governors on Tuesday called on President Biden to provide more comprehensive data related to migration at the southern border and claimed states were suffering financially because of his administration’s policies. In a letter obtained by Fox News, the governors tried to draw attention to the issue and asked for “honest, accurate, detailed information” from the Biden administration – immediately and on a regular basis going forward. “States are on the front lines, working around-the-clock responding to the effects of this crisis: shelters are full, food pantries empty, law enforcement strained, and aid workers exhausted,” the governors wrote in the letter addressed to Biden. “Though we remain committed to addressing these issues, States cannot afford to respond to a challenge of such magnitude while the federal government continues to turn a blind eye,” they wrote. The group of 25 governors, led by Gov. Greg Gianforte of Montana, requested specific logistical information from the Biden administration, where migrants were admitted and where they were relocated. “As governors, we call on you and your administration to relay immediately accurate, detailed, thorough data and information to the states about who is crossing the southern border illegally, where they are relocating, how the federal government is processing their asylum applications, and whether they are being deported successfully,” the governors wrote in the letter. “Without such information, we cannot fulfill our fundamental duties to protect our citizens while providing our communities with appropriate services,” they added.

Why So Many Migrants Are Coming to New York - - Last week, Mayor Eric Adams told a roomful of people that the recent influx of migrants “will destroy New York City.” More than a hundred and ten thousand have arrived in the city in recent months, and more than half are currently staying at shelters and other emergency sites. Although some of the most high-profile arrivals have been sent on buses by Greg Abbott, the governor of Texas, as part of a Republican plan to shift the burden of migrant crossings onto blue states, nearly ninety per cent of the migrants who have come to New York since last spring have arrived in other ways. Meanwhile, Adams has denounced the Biden Administration for not providing enough resources for the city to resolve what he describes as a dire crisis. (According to Adams, it will cost twelve billion dollars to house the migrants over the next three years.) I recently spoke by phone with Muzaffar Chishti, a senior fellow at the Migration Policy Institute, and an expert on how immigration policies at the federal, state, and local levels intersect. During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed why so many migrants have chosen to come to New York City specifically, why the Biden Administration cannot necessarily fulfill the Mayor’s requests, and how congressional inaction on immigration policy has exacerbated the problems that immigration hawks say they care about most.

How exactly has New York reached a point where the Mayor is framing the arrival of these migrants as something that could “destroy” the city? What factors contributed to it?
In many ways, the natural question most people are asking—and certainly most New Yorkers who have a basic pro-immigrant instinct are asking—is, Why are we freaking out? How is this chapter different from any other chapter in the long, welcoming history of New York City? We have been taking in immigrants for centuries. Economists of all stripes have generally concluded that immigrants are a net benefit to the country, to the city, to the state. That’s mostly because the government is out of their way. Strangely, the magic of capitalism and the magic of free enterprise work very well in the immigration analysis: People come, they contribute their labor or their talent or their expertise, there are willing employers who may not pay them as much they should but pay them enough to get by, and they go up the ladders of our economy and society, and their position improves over time, and it is basically all benefit and no cost.The huge fundamental difference in this is that it became a direct fiscal cost for the city of New York and for other municipalities which have had to deal with this, such as Chicago, Washington, D.C., and, to a lesser extent, Boston and Philadelphia. It’s a very strange quirk of politics and law. A hundred thousand people in a city of eight million is not a big number. If they had come organically, gradually, you and I would not have been having this conversation. What made it different, first of all, was its visibility, with Governor Abbott obviously making a very potent political statement: “I’m going to bus people. I’m going to teach you what we face in the border states, so you get a taste of it.” And guess what? Initially all the politicians, certainly on the left and most immigrant advocates, were calling out Abbott’s cruelty. Initially, the Mayor went and welcomed them personally at Port Authority.We have a right to shelter in our state constitution. But why do people not go to Sullivan County or any upstate county? In the late nineteen-seventies, housing advocates brought a lawsuit that got a settlement in which New York City agreed to provide housing for every man who seeks it, which was subsequently extended to women and families with children. That was a legal directive based on a reading of the state constitution, but it applied only to the city. To do the same thing today in Sullivan County, someone would have to file a lawsuit against Sullivan County.New immigrants had not used this settlement before at this magnitude. Most people involved in that litigation never thought it would apply to people who have been in the country for three days. But advocates quickly realized that if you are coming to New York, the city must provide you shelter.

NYC shelters set to dump thousands of migrants to discourage new arrivals - POLITICO— The migrant crisis is getting so hard for New York City to handle that Mayor Eric Adams sees a policy that could send thousands of people into the streets, many with nowhere to sleep and nowhere to work, as his next best move. It’s the latest in a series of increasingly desperate attempts by the Democratic mayor to stem the influx of asylum-seekers — a situation some in City Hall think has been fueled in part by a decades-old mandate for the city to provide shelter to anyone in need and for as long as they need it. With more than 60,000 migrants in the city’s care, Adams has decided to stop sheltering single adults after two months, and thousands will start being evicted this Saturday. The decision was made, in part, out of concerns that New York’s shelter guarantee was becoming a magnet for migrants, according to two people familiar with City Hall’s thinking. “The sense is that people didn’t fully understand just how accommodating New York City was to migrants until now, from a lot of these areas, and now it’s a big reason that people are coming here,” said one of the people, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “But if the understanding is you’re not guaranteed a place to stay, that affects the flow.” New York Gov. Kathy Hochul — who has been at odds with the mayor over how to respond to the situation — is also echoing that concern. Hochul wants to end NYC 'right to shelter' law amid migrant crisis “Never was it envisioned that this would be an unlimited universal right or obligation on the city to have to house literally [the] entire world,” Hochul told reporters on Wednesday. “We want to make sure that no families end up on the streets. We don’t want anything to happen to our children, but we also have to let the world know that there have to be limits to this.” The move by Adams marks a critical new moment in the year-long immigration crisis in New York, where the arrival of more than 100,000 migrants since spring 2022 has stretched the shelters beyond their capacity and forced the city to house people in tents. Now, with many about to face the end of their stays, migrants will be thrust into one of the most expensive places in the world. What they’ll find is a city of extremes — where even the middle class can struggle to make ends meet, where the median rent is a record $4,400 a month in Manhattan, where scarce apartments can prompt fierce bidding wars and where billionaires spend tens, even hundreds, of millions of dollars on glitzy second homes high atop the skyline. Housing and immigrant advocates say many of the migrants evicted from shelters will have no choice but to sleep on the street. “Directives like this that are not fully thought-out and are entirely short-sighted will have really dangerous, harmful repercussions, including street homelessness,” said Council Member Shahana Hanif, chair of the body’s immigration committee.

Texas sends another wave of migrants to New York City despite ‘capacity’ claims - Texas announced Friday that the state would be busing more migrants from “overwhelmed” border communities to New York City, despite Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-N.Y.) saying the state is at “capacity.” Busses chartered by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and the Texas Division of Emergency Management left Del Rio and Eagle Pass on Friday, Abbott announced. The New York Post reported that the buses were heading to New York. “Texas border towns should not have to shoulder the burden of Biden’s open border policies,” Abbott posted on X, formerly known as Twitter. “Texas will continue to send buses to sanctuary cities to provide relief to overrun border towns.” Hochul has asked for more federal aid to help with the unprecedented number of migrants arriving in the city, but the White House denied her request, saying the funding needs to come from Congress. New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) said earlier this month that the city’s migrant crisis would “destroy New York City.” He begged for more state and federal aid to help the massive influx of migrants arriving in the city. . New York has received around $140 million in federal funding for shelters, more than any other city that is not on the southwest border.

Biden on UAW strike: ‘Record profits have not been shared fairly’ - President Biden said Friday that record-high corporate profits should be shared with workers, hours after the United Auto Workers (UAW) went on a historic strike. Biden said that while he appreciates that the Big Three automakers have been working to make a deal on workers’ contracts with UAW, they failed to reach an agreement because the companies didn’t offer enough. “I believe they should go further. … Record corporate profits, which they have, should be shared by record contracts for the UAW,” Biden said in remarks at the White House. “Let’s be clear, no one wants a strike. No one wants a strike. But I respect workers’ rights to use their options under the collective bargaining system and I understand the workers’ frustration,” he added. Negotiations between the UAW and Ford, Stellantis and General Motors have been focused on pay increases, pensions and career security, while workers also have concerns about electric vehicles (EVs) and how a shift toward them could affect their jobs and pay. Biden said he is dispatching acting Labor Secretary Julie Su and Director of the National Economic Council Gene Sperling to Detroit to talk to both sides over the strike. He also hailed American auto workers for their decades of contributions to the U.S. economy. The praise comes as the union has not yet endorsed Biden in 2024, arguing in May that it has concerns over the White House’s focus on EVs. The union made clear at the time that it doesn’t plan to endorse former President Trump, the front-runner for the GOP nomination. “Over generations, auto workers sacrificed so much to keep the industry alive and strong, especially through economic crises and the pandemics. Workers deserve a fair share of the benefits they helped create for an enterprise,” Biden said. He said that UAW members have demonstrated “extraordinary skill and sacrifices” and that the union is “at the heart of our economy.” He added that a transition to EVs should be “fair and a win-win for auto workers and auto companies.” “It’s my hope that the parties can return to the negotiation table,” the president said. “The bottom line is that auto workers helped create America’s middle class. They deserve a contract that sustains them and the middle class.”

Yellen says it’s too soon to gauge economic impact of UAW strike It’s too early to know how the ongoing autoworkers strike will impact the U.S. economy, Treasury Department Secretary Janet Yellen said Monday during an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “I think it’s premature to be making forecasts about what it means for the economy,” she said. “It would depend very much on how long the strike lasts, and exactly who’s affected by it.” Thousands of United Auto Workers (UAW) employed by the Big Three automakers — General Motors, Ford and Stellantis — have been on strike since early Friday morning, as negotiators continue contract talks. The workers are demanding higher wages, shorter work weeks and better benefits. The auto companies have said the demands would be too costly for the industry. UAW President Shawn Fain told news outlets Monday that talks with the automakers over the weekend made little progress, and that expanding the strikes was a possibility. “We’ll see how things progress the next few days, and if we have to amp up pressure that is what we’re going to do,” he told MSNBC. Yellen is not directly involved in the negotiations. The Biden administration has pressed for a fair resolution and plans to send White House adviser Gene Sperling and acting Labor Secretary Julie Su to Detroit this week to help reach a deal. “We want to see the two sides come to a win-win agreement,” Yellen said. “President Biden has made clear he expects them to work hard to negotiate 24/7 to get to a solution, and so we’re hoping that that will happen soon.”

Trump seeks to put himself at center of auto strike - Former President Trump is expected to travel to Detroit next week in lieu of attending the second Republican primary debate, putting himself at the center of a major autoworker strike. Trump’s trip underscores how the former president has in some ways already turned his focus to a possible general election rematch with President Biden, with the former president seeking to appeal to the type of union workers that are critical to Biden’s voting coalition. “It’s a twofer for him,” said Michigan-based GOP strategist Jason Cabel Roe. “He gets to troll his opposition and go stake a claim in an important battleground state that he has been unique amongst Republicans of the last 30 or 40 years in winning. So I think it’s … a pretty savvy move on his part.” Trump skipped the first Republican presidential primary debate last month and instead sat for an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, citing his comfortable lead in polling. He plans to travel to Michigan while his main rivals for the GOP nomination gather for the second debate in California on Sept. 27. A Trump adviser confirmed the former president will deliver remarks in prime time in front of current and former union workers in Detroit, a hub of the U.S. auto industry. A visit to the picket line is unlikely, however. The New York Times first reported on Trump’s plans. Some Republicans believe that Trump’s decision to speak to union workers in Detroit may make the second GOP debate less relevant this go-around. It’s also likely to frustrate his Republican opponents, who are vying to go after him on the debate stage. “At the very least, he diminishes the value of the debate for other potential challengers and candidates,” said Saul Anuzis, former chairman of the Michigan GOP. “It may not be overwhelming, but to some degree, regardless of what it is, he clearly diminishes the value of the debates for all the challengers and makes it tougher for them to get their message out, to get their candidacy out there as an alternative for Trump.” At the same time, Trump’s appearance underscores the importance of Michigan — one of a handful of swing states that play a pivotal role in determining presidential elections. Trump narrowly won Michigan in 2016 but lost the state in 2020. His campaign views the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike and the larger debate over the transition to electric vehicles as an opening to win over voters in the state.

UAW announces ‘nationwide’ expansion of strike — in bad news for Biden - Thousands more employees at Detroit’s Big Three will walk off the job Friday afternoon, the first escalation in the United Auto Workers’ week-old strike and a setback for President Joe Biden’s hopes of an early end to the dispute.UAW President Shawn Fain announced that parts distribution center workers at more than three dozen Stellantis and General Motors facilities across 20 states will join the roughly 12,700 union members taking part inthe initial three-plant strike that began Sept. 15 against the major automakers.“This expansion will also take our fight nationwide. We will be everywhere from California to Massachusetts, from Oregon to Florida,” Fain said in a Facebook Live stream.The move excludes Ford, which Fain said had been making strides at the negotiating table.“Ford is showing they’re serious about reaching a deal; at GM and Stellantis, it’s a different story,” he said.Roughly 5,625 workers at these facilities joined the picket line at noon Friday. Most of the distribution centers targeted are relatively small, with the smallest having just a few dozen UAW members, and only one — a GM center in Burton, Mich. — that has more than 1,000 workers.The strike’s expansion will have economists and business leaders looking for signs that its impacts are beginning to spread as it moves into its second week — such as outside parts suppliers shutting down, the idling of workers in other industries or dampening consumer spending in Michigan and other states that are crucial to Biden’s reelection campaign.

Biden to join the picket line in UAW strike - President Joe Biden will travel to Michigan to join the picket line of auto workers on strike nationwide, he said on Friday afternoon. “Tuesday, I’ll go to Michigan to join the picket line and stand in solidarity with the men and women of UAW as they fight for a fair share of the value they helped create,” Biden wrote on X, the platform previously known as Twitter. His decision to stand alongside the striking workers represents perhaps the most significant display of union solidarity ever by a sitting president. Biden’s announcement comes a week after he expressed solidarity with the UAW and said he “understand[s] the workers’ frustration.” The announcement of his trip was seen as a seismic moment within certain segments of the labor community. “Pretty hard-core,” said one union adviser, who spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to speak publicly. Biden had earlier attempted to send acting Labor Secretary Julie Su and senior adviser Gene Sperling, who has been the White House’s point person throughout the negotiations, to Detroit to assist with negotiations. However, the administration subsequently stood down following conversations with the union. Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said earlier Friday it was a “mutually agreed upon decision.” The president’s plans come as some Democrats have begun to question his response to the strikee, recognizing that he needs the full backing of union workers in his presidential reelection bid.

Democrats warn of lost rebates in call for faster rollout of climate-friendly home upgrade funding More than 60 Democrats are calling on the Biden administration to move swiftly in its rollout of consumer rebates for energy-efficient home upgrades, warning that the current pace could lead to the “potential loss of two years of rebates.” In a new letter to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, dozens of Democrats said that they were “informed that states may be unable to offer rebates until the Fall of 2024 or later” because of delays in finalizing the program guidance. “DOE should immediately disburse early administrative funds so that program administrators can hire staff, develop plans, and stand up their rebate program,” the Democrats wrote in the letter, which was spearheaded by Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.). The Democrats’ climate, tax and health care bill included nearly $9 billion to help consumers offset the costs of things like heat pumps, induction stoves and efficient washing machines and dryers. The letter called for such discounts to be made retroactive since the date that the climate law, known as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), passed last year. It said that the only way to “mitigate the potential loss of two years of rebates is to allow program administrators to make rebates available retroactive to the date of IRA enactment.”

Markey, Ocasio-Cortez ask Biden to create Civilian Climate Corps by executive order Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), two of Congress’s most vocal proponents for aggressive climate action, on Monday called for President Biden to establish a Civilian Climate Corps (CCC). The CCC had been a key element in early versions of the Build Back Better Act, the sweeping environmental and infrastructure bill. It was not ultimately included in the slimmed-down Inflation Reduction Act, which nonetheless was the largest climate bill in U.S. history. Biden was a vocal backer of the CCC early in his presidency, comparing it to the Civilian Conservation Corps introduced during the presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The original legislation called for $10 billion to launch the program. In the letter, timed to the 30th anniversary of the bill that created Americorps, Ocasio-Cortez and Markey cited polling indicating the idea has more than 60 percent support. The two have also reintroduced a bill to establish a corps legislatively, though the measure will almost certainly not be given a vote in the Republican-majority House. “A central coordinating body, overseen by the White House, will be essential to create a successful and cohesive Civilian Climate Corps,” they wrote. “Through interagency collaboration, as well as coordination with state climate corps, other state entities, and local non-profit organizations, your Administration can realize the vision of a Civilian Climate Corps that establishes a unified front in the face of climate change — one that looks like America, serves America, and puts good-paying union jobs within reach for more young adults.” The letter is also signed by members of Democratic congressional leadership like Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.). Also on Monday, a coalition of more than 50 progressive and environmentalist groups sent a separate letter calling on Biden to establish the CCC, citing its popularity among younger voters in particular.

Biden launches American Climate Corps - President Joe Biden is launching a new federal program that aims to put more than 20,000 young people to work in jobs that promote renewable energy and combat climate change. Biden will use executive power to launch the American Climate Corps, a “workforce training and service initiative that will ensure more young people have access to the skills-based training necessary for good paying careers in the clean energy and climate resilience economy,” White House climate adviser Ali Zaidi told reporters Tuesday. The idea behind a climate corps — modeled after the New Deal-era Civilian Conservation Corps, which put young people to work improving public lands — has been popular among Democrats for some time. The announcement comes as the Biden team is launching an administrationwide campaign to tout its climate achievements and participating in Climate Week NYC, an annual event held in New York City that coincides with the U.N. General Assembly session. The move also comes as the 2024 presidential campaign is heating up. A federal jobs program aimed at young workers could help the president appeal to younger voters who could be critical in determining whether he stays in the White House. A climate corps has been on Biden’s wish list for years. Biden called for a strategy to create a Civilian Climate Corps in an executive order he signed days after taking office. Democrats sought funding for the program in their climate and social spending legislation dubbed the “Build Back Better Act,” but the plan was stripped from the climate law that emerged. “Years after idea and imagination, after organizing and marching, yet another element of the president’s historic climate agenda is coming to life,” Zaidi said. The White House didn’t provide specifics about how the program will be structured or funded. Varshini Prakash, co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, called the corps a top priority for young climate activists. “We need millions of people — especially young people — employed to do the essential work of averting climate catastrophe and building a fair and equitable new economy,” Prakash said Tuesday in a call organized by the White House. Just as then-President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s Civilian Conservation Corps “put millions to work, repairing bridges, planting trees and building national parks, this climate corps will conserve our land and water, bolster community resilience, advance environmental justice and tackle the climate crisis,” Prakash said.

Biden warns ‘what awaits us’ without climate action - President Joe Biden issued a warning to international leaders on Tuesday about the global perils that lie ahead if nations don’t work together to slash emissions from fossil fuels. Evidence of the “accelerating climate crisis” is everywhere, Biden told leaders gathered at the U.N. General Assembly in New York. “Record-breaking heat waves in the United States and China. Wildfires ravaging North America and Southern Europe. A fifth year of drought in the Horn of Africa. Tragic, tragic flooding in Libya,” he said. “Together,” Biden said, “these snapshots tell an urgent story of what awaits us if we fail to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and begin to climate-proof the world.” The president used his speech as an opportunity to tout the moves his administration has made on climate, including international investments and the massive law to incentivize renewable energy — known as the Inflation Reduction Act — that was enacted last year. “Last year, I signed into law in the United States the largest investment ever, anywhere in the history of the world, to combat the climate crisis and help move the global economy toward a clean energy future,” Biden said. Meanwhile, climate activists have organized protests in New York this week as the Biden team is touting its achievements while activists on the left are prodding the administration to move more quickly to crack down on fossil fuel development. Soon after Biden’s remarks, protesters interrupted a panel discussion featuring Interior Deputy Secretary Tommy Beaudreau, who spoke at one of many “climate week” events in New York this week. The activists criticized the Biden administration for approving ConocoPhillips’ Willow drilling project in Alaska, which environmentalists have labeled a “carbon bomb” that defies Biden’s climate goals.

Biden Administration Offers $4.6B in Grants to Reduce Climate Pollution - The USA Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has launched $4.6 billion in competitive grants to fund state, local, and tribal programs and policies that cut climate pollution, advance environmental justice, and deploy clean energy solutions across the country. The Climate Pollution Reduction Grants (CPRG) will be available across two implementation grant competitions, one general competition and one specifically for tribes and territories, the EPA said in a news release Wednesday. Under these competitions, eligible applicants will compete for the CPRG to fund measures in their state-, municipality-, tribe-, or territory-specific climate action plans. As part of its evaluation of applications, the agency said it will prioritize measures that achieve the greatest amount of greenhouse gas emissions reductions. The EPA anticipates awarding approximately 30 to 115 grants ranging between $2 million and $500 million under the general competition in the fall of 2024. The agency also expects to award approximately 25 to 100 grants ranging between $1 million and $25 million under the tribes and territories competition in the winter of 2024-2025. The deadline to apply for the general competition is April 1, 2024, while the deadline to apply for the tribes and territories competition is May 1, 2024, according to the release. The two new competitions are part of the second tranche of funding from the EPA’s $5 billion CPRG program, which was created by President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. The EPA has already made $250 million available to fund the development of climate action plans, and nearly all states, plus major cities, opted in to receive these flexible planning resources. The $4.6 billion implementation grant competitions will fund initiatives developed under the first phase of the program, the agency said. “Tackling the global climate crisis requires partnerships and action across the country”, EPA Administrator Michael Regan said. “President Biden secured this historic funding because he knows that communities need resources to fund projects to cut climate pollution, lift up disadvantaged communities, and reap the economic and job-creation benefits of climate action. By investing in America, we’re investing in communities so they can chart their own paths toward the clean energy future”. “EPA’s Climate Pollution Reduction Grants program recognizes that to tackle the climate crisis and advance environmental justice, communities need to be in the driver’s seat steering toward their own clean energy future”, Senior Advisor to the President for Clean Energy Innovation and Implementation John Podesta said. “It’s why these state, local, and Tribal grants are such an important part of President Biden’s Investing in America agenda”.

Dems bet on transmission bill as bridge to permitting deal - As Congress continues to chase a bipartisan deal to overhaul the nation’s permitting process for energy projects, two Democrats are throwing into the mix a new proposal they hope will help all sides find common ground. On Friday, Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) and Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) introduced the “Building Integrated Grids With Inter-Regional Energy Supply (BIG WIRES) Act,” their answer to the question of how Democrats can get Republicans to support boosting renewable energy projects alongside those benefiting oil and gas. “Our bill advances two priorities simultaneously: make electricity more affordable and build a power grid fit for the 21st century,” Hickenlooper said in a statement. The duo tried earlier this year to get a version of their proposal inserted into the debt ceiling deal. That effort failed, but a host of other modest changes were made to the law undergirding environmental reviews for permitting.Since then, both parties have committed to trying to reach a deal on permitting, with Republicans insisting they are interested in incorporating the energy transmission component. Last week, Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), the ranking member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.), chair of the House Natural Resources Committee, met separately with ENR Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to resume discussions on what a bipartisan permitting agreement might look like.After the meeting, Barrasso and Manchin said in a joint statement that they were “committed to reaching a bipartisan solution [that] prioritizes American energy security, reliability and affordability.”Also, Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-S.C.), chair of the Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy, Climate and Grid Security, said last week he would convene a hearing that dealt with some transmission issues.But thus far, no permitting legislation has been able to unite Democrats and Republicans — and this new bill, currently, is no exception. The Peters and Hickenlooper bill would direct the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to oversee the construction of an interregional transmission system, with each region required to transfer 30 percent of their peak electrical loads to neighboring regions. It would not cost the government any money, nor would it seek to advantage any one technology over another. Both qualities are selling points to conservatives who fret over the ballooning federal deficit and accuse Democrats of favoritism for renewables in the energy space.At the same time, the legislation advances a top Democratic priority: upgrading the nation’s grid to spread more renewable energy throughout the country.“On all of these things — on permitting, oil and gas, on energy — it’s going to have to involve transmission,” Peters said in an interview.“We can’t really provide expanded American energy — energy security, energy reliability and grid security — without major investments in the grid. We just have to move forward with that,” said Peters. Generally, however, the issue has been seen as part of a larger trade-off: In exchange for broader transmission deployment, Republicans want changes to bedrock environmental laws, including the National Environmental Policy Act, to help build pipelines and other energy projects.

New COVID vaccine campaign off to a bumpy start -- The launch of the newly approved COVID-19 vaccines, the first campaign since the federal pandemic emergency ended, is off to a bumpy start. Reports are piling up of insured Americans being stuck with the nearly $200 bill for shots, which were approved last week. The new vaccines are designed to protect against new strains of the coronavirus and are recommended for everyone older than 6 months. While the Biden administration has scrambled to make the shots accessible to uninsured Americans, it’s unclear whether current supply will meet demand. Anyone with health insurance — either through private insurers or federal programs like Medicare and Medicaid — should be able to receive the new COVID vaccines for free. But that’s not always happening, according to news reports and complaints on social media. As CBS News reported, the vaccines have new billing codes, and insurers are still updating their plans to cover the shots. Major health insurance providers, including Blue Cross Blue Shield, Aetna and Kaiser Permanente, said they planned to cover the COVID-19 shots as routine vaccinations when reached for comment by The Hill. Providers like Cigna and Anthem did not immediately respond when reached for comment or deferred inquiries to AHIP, the health insurance trade association. “Health insurance providers are working with the federal government and pharmacy and provider partners to ensure that everyone has access to ACIP-recommended vaccines, without cost sharing,” AHIP said in a statement to The Hill. “The new vaccine formulations mark the first time that the COVID-19 vaccines are available without being purchased/distributed by the federal government.” Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra received his updated COVID shot at a CVS Pharmacy in Washington on Wednesday to encourage vaccine uptake and promote the availability of vaccines through pharmacies. While taking questions from reporters, Becerra acknowledged accounts of insured individuals having to pay out-of-pocket. The secretary said any claims that insurers aren’t covering the shots are “not correct.” “Please make sure you’re talking to your insurance company because. You should be covered by law. If you are insured, you are covered for COVID. If you are on Medicare, you are covered. If you are on Medicaid, you are covered and if you don’t have insurance — through this Bridge Access program — you are covered,” Becerra said. He also encouraged insured customers to speak with their pharmacists because they may be able to clear up any confusion.

Gov. DeWine, Rep. Kaptur test positive for COVID-19 - Ohio Governor Mike DeWine and Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur have both tested positive for COVID-19.The governor’s office released a statement Tuesday saying:“At approximately 5:30 p.m. today, Governor DeWine tested positive for Covid-19. He started experiencing mild cold symptoms yesterday. Believing he had a mild head cold, he proceeded with his work day today. As the day progressed, his symptoms worsened, and his doctor advised that he take a COVID-19 test, which was positive. He reported having a 101-degree fever at the time of taking the test late this afternoon. He is resting at home at this time.“The current strain of COVID-19 can present itself with symptoms much like a head cold. Governor DeWine and the Ohio Department of Health advise testing yourself for COVID-19, even if you think you have only a minor cold.”Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur posted a message to social media Tuesday stating she too had tested positive for COVID-19.

COVID conspiracies return in force, just in time for 2024 -An increase in COVID-19 cases has spawned a corresponding flare-up of conspiracy theories around the virus, a phenomenon that experts warn will only get worse as the 2024 election approaches. The White House and President Biden’s reelection campaign will now be tasked with promoting awareness and the latest vaccines while also countering misinformation spread by anti-vaxxers, some conservative pundits and even a small number of Republican officials. Advocates told The Hill that even though the coronavirus public emergency is over, the pandemic’s influence on American society is here to stay. “We’re only at the tip of the iceberg for how bad this is going to get,” said Mike Rothschild, a conspiracy theory researcher. Fear that another COVID-19 lockdown is imminent have circulated online in recent weeks as cases spiked. Hospitalizations caused by the virus have been steadily rising each week since early July, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The claim originated on conspiracist Alex Jones’s InfoWars in an Aug. 18 “exclusive” claiming whistleblowers from the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and Border Patrol told them the strict precautions put in place at the start of the pandemic are making a return. The website then speculated without evidence that those purported lockdowns are perfectly timed to assist with “the greatest election meddling in history.” Right-wing online spaces quickly glommed onto the narrative, which was then amplified by conservative publications and some GOP lawmakers, including Utah Sen. Mike Lee and Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie. “If bureaucrats try to reinstate any COVID tyranny measures, resist them with a vengeance. Do not comply,” Massie said in an Aug. 25 post to X, formerly Twitter. TSA press secretary R. Carter Langston told The Hill the “rumors” are “completely false,” adding that the agency doesn’t have any new requirements related to COVID-19 and has not held any meeting on the topic. Jackie Wasiluk, a spokesperson for U.S. Customs and Border Protection, said “claims that CBP has plans to independently reintroduce COVID-19 protocols are false.”

GOP mocks Biden administration over missing F-35 --Republican lawmakers are mocking the Biden administration after a pilot ejected from an F-35 on Sunday and sent the military scrambling to find the fighter jet in South Carolina. “How on earth did the Biden Administration lose track of an $80 million F-35 jet?” Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter. “What else are they losing?” The pilot is safe, but the jet is still missing as of Monday afternoon. Joint Base Charleston said they are searching north of the base near two lakes between the cities of Charleston and Columbia. Joint Base Charleston said it has connected with federal, state and local agencies as it hunts for the missing aircraft and has also asked the public for help finding the jet. “This is what happens when military leaders are more focused on woke ideology than actually running a competent military,” Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) wrote on X, repeating a common criticism from the GOP that the Biden administration is too focused on progressive policies in the military. The missing aircraft is an F-35B Lightning II stealth fighter jet, which was assigned to the 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing, an east coast aviation unit. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), whose home state is frantically searching for the jet, asked “how in the hell do you lose an F-35?” “Is it any wonder the Pentagon can’t pass an audit?” Mace wrote on X. The missing jet has sparked a frenzy of trolling and memes on social media, with commentators posting mock pictures of a help-wanted poster to find the F-35 and jokes about other countries stealing it from the U.S. It’s still unclear why the pilot had to eject, but officials at Joint Base Charleston said there was a “mishap” during the flight.

Collins pans new Senate dress code: ‘I plan to wear a bikini tomorrow’ - Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) poked fun at the new Senate dress code Monday, joking that she planned to wear a bathing suit on the Senate floor. “I plan to wear a bikini tomorrow to the Senate floor,” Collins joked to reporters. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced the relaxation of the dress code earlier this week, saying that senators can now wear whatever they want to on the floor while staffers and outside visitors need to adhere to the business attire policy.“Senators are able to choose what they wear on the Senate floor. I will continue to wear a suit,” Schumer said in a statement shared with The Hill on the change.Collins joined a number of her conservative colleagues who criticized the new Senate dress code for being too lax and for lowering the standards. Many conservatives took aim at Sen.John Fetterman (D-Penn.) over the dress code, accusing Schumer of catering to the Pennsylvania Democrat, who can be frequently spotted wearing a hoodie and gym shorts. “I think there is a certain dignity that we should be maintaining in the Senate, and to do away with the dress code, to me, debases the institution,” Collins said in comments reported by NBC.Collins’ remarks were echoed by other Republicans, including GOP presidential candidate and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who said the Senate was “dumbing down” the dress code for Fetterman.

Manchin circulates proposal to reverse Schumer on dress code - Centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is circulating a proposal to reestablish the Senate’s dress code, which Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) loosened over the weekend to allow senators to wear whatever they want on the Senate floor, according to senators familiar with the proposal. One person familiar with the resolution said it would essentially return the Senate dress code to what it was last week, which required senators to wear coats and ties or business attire when on the Senate floor. “I’ve signed it,” said one senator, who explained it would “define what the dress code is.” Schumer’s decision appeared aimed at catering to first-term Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), whose hoodie was a signature look on the campaign trail in 2022 and who wore a dark short-sleeved collared shirt and dark shorts to work Thursday. But the decision to loosen the dress code is getting bipartisan pushback, including from Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.), who says the Senate should have standards. “The senator in question from Pennsylvania is a personal friend, but I think we need to have standards when it comes to what we’re wearing on the floor of the Senate, and we’re in the process of discussing that right now as to what those standards will be,”

House Dem leader offers support for VP Harris after Pelosi remarks raise eyebrows - House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) offered his support Sunday for Vice President Harris after former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) appeared hesitant to back the vice president last week. “Far be it for me to ever speak for Nancy D’Alesandro Pelosi, the greatest Speaker of all times,” Jeffries said on ABC’s “This Week” when asked about Pelosi’s recent comments. “She’s very capable of answering that question on her own. “I will say that Vice President Harris has been a great vice president. She’ll be a great running mate. She has been a tremendous partner in the things that President Biden has been able to accomplish, which have been phenomenal.” Jeffries was responding to comments Pelosi made in an interview last week, where she was asked about whether Harris was the best running mate for President Biden in their bid for reelection. “He thinks so, and that’s what matters,” she said when first asked. “And, by the way,” Pelosi continued, not stopping when CNN’s Anderson Cooper asked whether she also thought so, “She’s very politically astute. I don’t think people give her enough credit.” Jeffries praised Harris, saying that she was instrumental in the White House’s accomplishments over the past two years, including “fixing our crumbling infrastructure, clean water in every single community, bringing domestic manufacturing jobs back home to the United States of America.”

Boebert’s estranged husband defends her amid blowback over ‘Beetlejuice’ behavior --Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Colo.) estranged husband is defending the Colorado lawmaker amid blowback after her behavior during a performance of “Beetlejuice” last week led to her being removed from the theater.“I am asking for you all to show grace and mercy towards Lauren in this troubling season,” Jayson Boebert wrote in a Facebook post Monday. “She deserves a chance to earn your forgiveness and regain trust. I have broke her down in so many ways, but she will come out stronger as she always does, and so will I.” Lauren Boebert, along with a male companion, were escorted out of a Denver theater in the middle of the performance last week for causing a disturbance, including vaping, singing and taking flash photography. The theater said she and the man initially refused to leave the venue, even after an employee threatened to get the police, according to The Associated Press. While being escorted out of the theater, the lawmaker appeared to give the finger to security guards. The incident was first reported by The Denver Post. A spokesperson for Lauren Boebert initially denied that she had been vaping, but video has since surfaced showing her doing so.The lawmaker, who married Jayson Boebert in 2006, filed for divorce in May, citing “irreconcilable differences.” In his post Monday, Jayson Boebert complimented her as an “exceptional wife, mother and now grandmother.” He said he takes “full responsibility for his actions” and “deeply regrets” the choices he made during their marriage. “This has been a devastating divorce that I hold all responsibility for,” he wrote. “It upsets me that everyone believes she left me over fame or new lifestyle. That is far from the truth.” “I stand behind you. You are the hardest working person I know, selfless and overflowing with love,” he continued, addressing his estranged wife. “I hate the attacks that are coming your way. In part, this is my fault and you don’t deserve this.”

Sen. Bob Menendez and wife indicted on bribery charges; DOJ seizes gold bars and $500,000 — New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez was charged on Friday with corruption-related offenses for the second time in 10 years. Menendez and his wife, Nadine Arslanian Menendez, are accused of accepting “hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes” in exchange for the senator’s influence, according to the newly unsealed federal indictment. Prosecutors allege the bribes included gold, cash, home mortgage payments, compensation for a “low-or-no-show job” and a luxury vehicle. This is the second set of corruption charges levied against Menendez by the Justice Department in a decade. He previously fought off conspiracy, bribery and honest services fraud related to alleged personal favors. Menendez is up for reelection next year. He has been in the Senate since 2006.Senate Democratic Caucus rules will force Menendez to step aside as chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, but he can still serve on the panel. Menendez slammed the indictment in a statement.“For years, forces behind the scenes have repeatedly attempted to silence my voice and dig my political grave. Since this investigation was leaked nearly a year ago, there has been an active smear campaign of anonymous sources and innuendos to create an air of impropriety where none exists,” he said. “The excesses of these prosecutors is apparent,” he added. “They have misrepresented the normal work of a Congressional office. On top of that, not content with making false claims against me, they have attacked my wife for the longstanding friendships she had before she and I even met.” Menendez also previously set up a legal defense fund. Beginning in April, his wife sold gold bars worth as much as $400,000, according to the senator’s most recent financial disclosure form. Menendez is charged with three alleged crimes, including being on the receiving end of a bribery conspiracy. The conspiracy counts also charge his wife Nadine, and three people described as New Jersey associates and businessmen, Wael Hana, Jose Uribe and Fred Daibes. A lawyer for Nadine Menendez said she denies any wrongdoing and would fight the federal indictment.

Bribery case against Sen. Bob Menendez shines light on NJ developer accused of corruption (AP) — In late 2020, Sen. Bob Menendez met with Philip Sellinger, a private practice lawyer and former fundraiser for the senator, to assess his potential fit as the next U.S. attorney for the state of New Jersey — and to discuss one case in particular. If appointed, Sellinger would assume control of one of the largest prosecutor’s offices in the country, a post that comes with the power to bust mob bosses and go after corrupt public officials. But Menendez, federal prosecutors say, was fixated on a less consequential matter: ensuring the future prosecutor would act sympathetically toward a friend of his facing bank fraud charges, real estate developer Fred Daibes. Daibes is now a key figure in a sweeping bribery case brought against Menendez, his wife and multiple other associates. It accuses Menendez and his wife of accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of cash, gold bars and a luxury car in exchange for a range of favors, including secretly aiding the government of Egypt on U.S. policy matters and interfering in three criminal investigations, including the one involving Daibes. The indictment unsealed Friday by the U.S. attorney in Manhattan said Daibes paid bribes, including envelopes stuffed with thousands of dollars in cash and gold bars worth more than $120,000. Menendez has denied wrongdoing, blaming the prosecution on “forces behind the scenes” who “cannot accept that a first-generation Latino American from humble beginnings could rise to be a U.S. Senator.” An attorney for Daibes, Tim Donohue, said he was confident his client would be “completely exonerated of all charges.” Daibes and Menendez both rose to prominence as power players in the same stretch of urban communities across the Hudson River from Manhattan, where local politics and real estate have long involved favor-trading.

Ex-banker at center of U.S. indictment of Sen. Bob Menendez – Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., a prominent member of the Senate Banking Committee, and his wife have been indicted on charges they took bribes from New Jersey businessmen including a former community bank executive, according to the Justice Department. Menendez and his wife Nadine Menendez allegedly accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes in exchange for exerting political influence on the businessmen's behalf. In a 39-page indictment unsealed Friday, federal prosecutors accused Menendez of sharing sensitive information with the government of Egypt and taking other steps to benefit the businessmen, in exchange for cash, gold bars, mortgage payments and other valuable items. According to federal prosecutors, Menendez promised "and did use his influence and power" to recommend Philip R. Sellinger as U.S. attorney for New Jersey, because Menendez believed he could influence him with respect to the federal prosecution of former bank executive Fred Daibes. Sellinger is not accused of wrongdoing in the indictment. Daibes is one of three prominent New Jersey businessmen named in the indictment, alongside Wael Hana, the founder of a halal meat certification company that serves Egypt, and Jose Uribe, a former insurance agent. At the time he made gifts to Menendez, Daibes was facing federal bank fraud charges that could have come with a decade-long prison sentence. Daibes founded and was formerly CEO and chairman of the $414 million-asset Mariner's Bank in Edgewater, New Jersey, which was bought by nearby Spencer Savings Bank in 2021 for an undisclosed cash payout. Representatives from Spencer Savings did not immediately comment on Friday. Daibes and an associate had been accused by federal prosecutors in 2018 of circumventing state and federal limits on lending to a single borrower, according to a grand jury indictment. Allegedly, Daibes used friends and relatives to secure millions of dollars in loans without the knowledge of Mariner's Bank or the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. between 2008 and 2013. Prosecutors say associates would obtain loans from the bank and turn the funds over to Daibes, then submit falsified documents to hide the fact that Daibes was the ultimate beneficiary. In some instances, Daibes was said to have voted to approve the loans as a member of the bank's loan committee. Last year, Daibes pleaded guilty to a single count of making false entries in connection with a loan document, paid back a $1.8 million loan and didn't serve prison time, according to his plea agreement.

U.S. attorney shows car, gold bars and cash in Menendez indictment – POLITICO video

Bipartisan Calls For Menendez’s Resignation Grow: Speaker McCarthy Joins New Jersey Democrats -- House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on Saturday joined a growing list of lawmakers to call on beleaguered Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) to resign in the wake of his indictment this week on criminal bribery charges, the New Jersey senator’s second indictment in recent years. McCarthy argued the allegations against Menendez—including that he accepted gold bars, a luxury car and hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash in return for political favors—were “very damaging,” The Hill reported.New Jersey’s Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy also urged Menendez to resign, arguing the allegations are “so serious that they compromise” Menendez’ ability to effectively serve his term in the senate.A duo of New Jersey representatives also pushed for Menendez’ resignation, including Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.), who called the allegations “serious,” and Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), who wrote on X that “no one in America is above the law” (Kim also announced on Saturday he willchallenge for Menendez’s senate seat in 2024).Sen. John Fetterman (D-Penn.) reiterated those calls on X, writing “he cannot continue to wield influence over national policy, especially given the serious and specific nature of the allegations,” while Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) called the charges “shocking” and “the most profound betrayal of his oath of office” if the charges are true.Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) on Friday told CNN’s Manu Raju he believes Menendez should resign, adding he was “appalled” while calling on Democrats in Congress to “absolutely” push him to step down.Menendez, a three-term senator and the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was charged by federal prosecutors on Friday with conspiracy to commit bribery, conspiracy to commit honest services fraud and conspiracy to commit extortion under color of official right, for allegedly taking bribes from three business associates. According to the indictment, Menendez took roughly $500,000 in cash, as well as gold bars, a Mercedes-Benz and home mortgage payments in exchange for political favors to the associates, including through his alleged interference in a state investigation into one of the associates—Menendez vehemently denied the allegations, calling the indictment an “active smear campaign of anonymous sources and innuendos.”The indictment was Menendez’ second since taking office in 2006, following a 2015 indictment in which he was accused of taking bribes from an ophthalmologist, who allegedly gave him $1 million in gifts and campaign contributions. Menendez also denied those charges, including eight counts of bribery and three counts of honest services fraud, while his bribery trial ended in 2017 with a hung jury. Menendez was acquitted of 11 of the 18 charges in 2018, while the remaining were dismissed. He was re-elected to a third term by a 54% vote later that year.

House Republicans set first Biden impeachment inquiry hearing for Sept. 28 (AP) — House Republicans plan to hold their first hearing next week in theirimpeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden.The hearing — scheduled for Sept. 28 — is expected to focus on “constitutional and legal questions” that surround the allegations of Biden’s involvement in his son Hunter’s overseas businesses, according to a spokesperson for the House Oversight Committee. Republicans — led by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy — have contended in recent weeks that Biden’s actions from his time as vice president show a “culture of corruption,” and that his son used the “Biden brand” to advance his business with foreign clients. The spokesperson also said Rep. James Comer, R-Ky., chairman of Oversight, plans to issue subpoenas for the personal and business bank records of Hunter Biden and the president’s brother James Biden “as early as this week.” McCarthy appointed Comer to lead the inquiry in coordination with Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan and Ways & Means Chairman Jason Smith. The White House has called the effort by House Republicans in the midst of the presidential campaign “extreme politics at its worst.” “Staging a political stunt hearing in the waning days before they may shut down the government reveals their true priorities: To them, baseless personal attacks on President Biden are more important than preventing a government shutdown and the pain it would inflict on American families.,” Ian Sams, a White House spokesman, said in a statement Tuesday.McCarthy announced the impeachment inquiry last week after facing mounting pressure from his right flank to take action against Biden or risk being ousted from his leadership job. At the same time, the speaker is struggling to pass legislation needed to avoid a federal government shutdown at the end of the month.The California lawmaker launched the inquiry without a House vote, and it’s unclear if he would have enough support to approve it from his slim GOP majority. Some lawmakers have criticized the evidence so far as not reaching the Constitution’s bar of “high crimes and misdemeanors.”

GOP senator says Garland’s responses on Hunter Biden probe ‘insulting’ - Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) blasted Attorney General Merrick Garland’s responses to House GOP lawmaker questions on the Hunter Biden probe for being “insulting” to the American people. “I thought Attorney General Garland talked to the American people as if he were talking to Bambi’s baby brother,” he said on an appearance on “Fox & Friends.” “It was kind of insulting. The American people may be poorer under President Biden, but they’re not stupid. He didn’t talk about the facts.” Garland appeared before the House Judiciary Committee on Wednesday, where he defended the Justice Department and the handling of a high-profile investigation into the president’s son. Kennedy rattled off a series of claims in connection to the Hunter Biden investigation during his Wednesday appearance, including accusing the White House and the Justice Department of having the “skids greased through an inappropriate plea bargain.”“But the whistleblowers came forward, and they have sort of been the stool sample in the White House and the Department of Justice’s punch bowl,” he added. “And final point, I think it’s clear to the American people that Mr. Hunter Biden is Fredo. He had to have lots of help to pull this off.”One of the focuses of the hearing came from the testimony of an IRS whistleblower, Gary Shapley, who told lawmakers he believed Hunter Biden’s case was slow-walked by prosecutors. It also centered on his claims that prosecutor David Weiss sought a special counsel status earlier on but was denied it.Garland denied any involvement in Weiss’s investigation, saying he left it up to Weiss on when he should pursue charges against the president’s son.

Judge rejects defense effort to throw out an Oath Keeper associate's Jan. 6 guilty verdict (AP) — A federal judge on Tuesday upheld an obstruction conviction against a Virginia man who stood trial with members of the Oath Keepers extremist group in one of the most serious cases brought in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection.U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta rejected a defense effort to throw out the Washington jury’s guilty verdict against Thomas Caldwell, a retired U.S. Navy intelligence officer who was convicted last November in the U.S. Capitol attack alongside Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes.Mehta said there was sufficient evidence to find Caldwell, of Berryville, Virginia, guilty of obstructing an official proceeding — in this case, Congress’ certification of Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory over President Donald Trump — and tampering with documents or proceedings.The judge said that while Caldwell didn’t enter the Capitol, evidence supports the argument that he aided extremists who stormed the building. The judge pointed to Caldwell’s own words, including a message from the evening of Jan. 6 in which he wrote: “So I grabbed up my American flag and said let’s take the damn capitol ... I said lets storm the place and hang the traitors.”

Jack Smith adds war crimes prosecutor — his deputy from the Hague — to special counsel team - Special counsel Jack Smith has added a veteran war crimes prosecutor — who served as Smith’s deputy during his stint at the Hague — to his team as it prepares to put former President Donald Trump on trial in Washington and Florida.Alex Whiting worked alongside Smith for three years, helping prosecute crimes against humanity that occurred in Kosovo in the late 1990s. The Yale-educated attorney also worked as a prosecutor with the International Criminal Court from 2010 to 2013. He has taught law classes at Harvard since 2007 as well, hired as an assistant professor by then-Dean Elena Kagan — now a Supreme Court justice — and rising to a visiting professorship in 2013.Whiting’s precise role on Smith’s team is unclear. A spokesperson for Smith declined to comment, and Whiting did not immediately return requests for comment. The prosecutors’ office in the Hague and Harvard University also did not respond to requests for comment about Whiting’s current employment status.But a POLITICO reporter observed Whiting at the U.S. district courthouse in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday and Thursday, spending several hours monitoring the trial of a Jan. 6 defendant. The judge in the case is Tanya Chutkan, who is slated to preside over Trump’s trial in March on federal charges stemming from his efforts to subvert the 2020 election.During a break in the Jan. 6 trial this week, Whiting introduced himself to prosecutors as a new member of Smith’s team, saying he “just joined” the office.From 2018 to 2022, Smith served as chief prosecutor in the Kosovo Specialist Chamber in the Hague. Whiting temporarily took over that office last year after Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Smith as special counsel to lead the Trump investigations. Boston attorney Kim West was appointedto permanently succeed Smith in June but did not assume the role immediately.Whiting has been a frequent commentator on the previous special counsel to investigate Trump: Robert Mueller, who investigated links between Russia and Trump’s 2016 campaign. Whiting wrote numerous articles and gave interviews assessing the strength of Mueller’s case against Trump, often siding with those who saw extreme legal peril for Trump over his efforts to curb the investigation. Though he was once active on Twitter, his account appears to have been deleted and a Wayback Machine search suggests it was dormant since mid-2022. Whiting’s addition to the team shows Smith is gearing up for a new phase of his efforts — preparing for trials that could send a former president to prison for the first time in U.S. history.

Hunter Biden files lawsuit against IRS Hunter Biden launched a suit against the IRS on Monday, arguing that two agents wrongfully released his tax information as they spoke with congressional investigators about a Justice Department investigation into his taxes. “This lawsuit is not about the legitimacy of the IRS investigation of Mr. Biden over the past five years or any decision to penalize Mr. Biden for any failure to comply with his obligations under the tax laws,” Biden’s attorneys wrote in the suit. “Rather, the lawsuit is about the decision by IRS employees, their representatives, and others to disregard their obligations and repeatedly and intentionally publicly disclose and disseminate Mr. Biden’s protected tax return information outside the exceptions for making disclosures in the law,” it added later. The suit points to testimony from two IRS agents that worked on the broader Justice Department probe, Gary Shapley and Joseph Ziegler, who alleged the Biden investigation was slow-walked by prosecutors. The two men spoke with the House Ways and Means Committee earlier this summer and also testified before the House Oversight and Accountability Committee in July. But the suit targets what it says were “20 nationally televised and non-congressionally sanctioned interviews” discussing the investigation. Biden’s suit seeks $1,000 for “each and every unauthorized disclosure of his tax return information” made by the two men. The IRS declined to comment on the lawsuit.

Jordan demands documents from Hunter Biden probe, interview with top prosecutor -- House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) made a sweeping request for more information about the Justice Department’s investigation of the president’s son, Hunter Biden, setting a date for an interview with David Weiss, the special counsel on the matter, while demanding a number of documents related to the ongoing investigation. Jordan is also asking the Justice Department (DOJ) to turn over a series of documents related to two IRS whistleblowers who claimed the investigation was being mismanaged. The letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland, obtained by The Hill, shows the committee is seeking an Oct. 11 interview with Weiss, who previously said he was willing to speak with the panel. But it also shows the panel requesting interviews with other top DOJ officials mentioned in testimony by the IRS whistleblowers, including U.S. Attorney for D.C. Matthew Graves and Lesley Wolf, a deputy to Weiss. The request comes after the two whistleblowers — IRS agents Gary Shapley and Joseph Ziegler — complained the investigation into Hunter Biden was slow-walked, pointing to both Weiss and Wolf as at times hesitant to aggressively pursue the case, which included allegations of several tax crimes. Shapley also said Graves resisted bringing charges against Biden in Washington, D.C. — a claim denied both by his office as well as Weiss’s. Jordan also asks for a significant volume of documents tied to the ongoing investigation into Hunter Biden, who was indicted just last week on charges related to failing to acknowledge drug use when seeking to buy a weapon. It’s unclear if additional tax charges are forthcoming. Those documents include a PowerPoint regarding the investigation and any notes or emails related to an Oct. 7 meeting in which Shapley recalled Weiss saying he sought and was denied special counsel status, leaving him unable to pursue charges outside of Delaware.

House Dem: Hunter Biden looks ‘guilty,’ not his dad - Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota is placing blame on Hunter Biden and backing President Joe Biden in light of Speaker Kevin McCarthy directing the House to open an impeachment inquiry into the president. “The evidence suggests Hunter Biden is guilty of unethical and/or illegal behavior,” Phillips said on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “The evidence suggests Joe Biden is guilty of absolutely nothing more than being a father.” Phillips’ comments display an indication that Democrats aren’t interested in defending Hunter Biden even as they back the president. McCarthy said Tuesday that he would be “directing” committees “to open a formal impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden” without a vote on the floor. Phillips, a moderate Democrat, met with donors in July to talk about a possible primary run against Joe Biden. But last month Phillips said he had not yet decided whether he would launch a bid. It’s unclear whether or not McCarthy has the majority support for the impeachment inquiry mostly due to centrists who are skeptical that the GOP has uncovered enough evidence to advance an impeachment vote, given that no direct link has emerged so far between Joe Biden and the overseas business dealings of Hunter Biden.

Biden trails Trump, Haley, Scott in 2024 race: poll -- President Biden is trailing former President Trump, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) in several hypothetical 2024 match-ups in a new survey from Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll shared with The Hill. The poll found that 44 percent of respondents said they would vote for Trump when asked about a hypothetical match-up between him and Biden in 2024, while 40 percent said they would back the current president. A separate 15 percent said they were unsure or didn’t know. The polling is largely unchanged from a similar Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll conducted in July, which had Trump at 45 percent and Biden at 40 percent. The poll also found that 41 percent said they would back Haley, compared to 37 percent who said they would support Biden. When asked about a match between Biden and Scott, the president received 37 percent, while Scott received 39 percent. Still, both hypothetical match-ups featured larger shares of respondents saying they didn’t know or were unsure who they would support; 21 percent in the Biden-Haley match-up and 25 percent in the Biden-Scott match-up. The poll, however, found that Biden performed better against former Vice President Mike Pence — Biden received 42 percent while Pence received 36 percent; Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who trailed Biden 42 percent to 38 percent; and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who came in at 37 percent while Biden received 39 percent. At least 20 percent of those surveyed in each of those match-ups were unsure or didn’t know who they would back. Still, the close match-ups between Biden and many of the GOP candidates suggest the 2024 election could be another nail-biter. “No question that President Joe Biden is showing lagging national poll numbers and that now multiple GOP candidates are ahead of him. This is a new development as [non-Trump] potential opponents like Haley get exposure,” said Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll. The polling also comes as Trump remains the front-runner in the 2024 primary as DeSantis, Pence, Haley and others have struggled to close the gap between themselves and the former president. Meanwhile, Biden has grappled with a slew of negative polls that point to age as an issue for the president. A notable Washington Post columnist has called on Biden not to run again in 2024, though the president has made no indication that he’ll change plans.

Saudi crown prince suggests investment would stay in Kushner fund if Trump reelected -Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman suggested Wednesday that the $2 billion investment the Saudi government made in Jared Kushner’s private equity fund would not be affected by a theoretical second term for former President Trump. In a rare interview with Fox News’s Bret Baier, the crown prince defended the government-controlled Public Investment Fund’s (PIF) investment in the firm Kushner — Trump’s son-in-law — started after leaving his post as a White House adviser. “It’s a commitment that the PIF [has], and the PIF [has] commitment[s] with any investor around the globe to keep it,” Crown Prince Mohammed said when asked whether he would move the money should Trump, who currently leads the 2024 GOP primary field, were elected president for another term. Kushner — who had a close relationship with the crown prince – accepted the investment just six months after leaving office, raising concerns about the appearance of an improper quid pro quo. Asked about the appearance of the investment, the crown prince said, “We look to opportunities and investment. We have investment, a lot of investment around the globe with a lot of peoples and with economical opportunity.” He also brushed off concerns about any apparent impropriety and claimed most prominent figures around the world have some sort of connection to Saudi Arabia.

SBF's parents sued by FTX for millions in 'misappropriated funds' --Bankrupt crypto exchange FTX is looking to claw back luxury property and "millions of dollars in fraudulently transferred and misappropriated funds" from the parents of Sam Bankman-Fried, the exchange's disgraced ex-CEO and founder.In a Monday court filing, lawyers representing the bankruptcy estate of the failed exchange alleged that Allan Joseph Bankman and his wife, Barbara Fried, "exploited their access and influence within the FTX enterprise to enrich themselves, directly and indirectly, by millions of dollars."The lawsuit, which was filed in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware, goes on to claim that "despite knowing or blatantly ignoring that the FTX Group was insolvent or on the brink of insolvency," Bankman and Fried discussed with their son the transfer of a $10 million cash gift and a $16.4 million luxury property in the Bahamas.The suit alleges that as early as 2019, Sam's father also directly participated in efforts to cover up a whistleblower complaint that threatened to "expose the FTX Group as a house of cards." The filing also details emails written by Bankman in which he complained to the FTX U.S. Head of Administration that his annual salary was $200,000, when he was "supposed to be getting $1M/yr."That grievance was ultimately elevated to his son in an email, according to the lawsuit: "Gee, Sam I don't know what to say here. This is the first [I] have heard of the 200K a year salary! Putting Barbara on this."The filing characterizes the correspondence as Bankman lobbying his son to "massively increase his own salary." Within two weeks, the suit claims that Bankman-Fried had collectively gifted his parents $10 million in funds coming from Alameda, and within three months, the couple was deeded the $16.4 million property in the Bahamas.According to the partially redacted filing, Bankman-Fried's parents also "pushed for tens of millions of dollars in political and charitable contributions, including to Stanford University, which were seemingly designed to boost Bankman's and Fried's professional and social status."Fried is also accused of encouraging her son and others within the company to avoid, if not violate, federal campaign finance disclosure rules by "engaging in straw donations or otherwise concealing the FTX Group as the source of the contributions."Bankman-Fried's parents are legal scholars who taught at Stanford Law School. His mother is an expert on ethics, while his father specializes in taxes. Bankman-Fried himself independently faces multiple wire and securities fraud charges related to the alleged multibillion-dollar FTX fraud.Federal prosecutors and regulators allege that Bankman-Fried was the driver of "one of the biggest financial frauds in American history," in the words of U.S. Attorney Damian Williams. The U.S. Department of Justice has charged the former FTX CEO with using billions of dollars in customer money to fund VC investments, buy property and make political donations. Bankman-Fried has pled not guilty to all charges, and his criminal trial kicks off Oct. 3 in Manhattan.Bankman and Fried "either knew — or ignored bright red flags revealing — that their son, Bankman-Fried, and other FTX Insiders were orchestrating a vast fraudulent scheme," the lawsuit said.

SBF’s Dad Joe Bankman Thought FTX Wasn’t Paying Him Enough, So He Got SBF’s Mom Barbara Fried Involved - “Just wait until mom hears about this.” For any kid, this might not be an appealing set of words for a father to utter. Some version of that warning, though, allegedly played a behind-the-scenes role in how Sam Bankman-Fried’s once-$32 billion crypto giant was run, according to a new court filing in the company’s bankruptcy case. Bankman-Fried’s dad, Joe Bankman, was paid a $200,000 salary by FTX’s U.S. division, according to the filing from FTX’s bankruptcy estate, which just sued Bankman-Fried's parents to claw back money. But that wasn’t enough, the father said, telling an FTX executive in a Jan. 12, 2022, message that he was supposed to get $1 million annually starting the previous month. Then he emailed his son. “Gee, Sam I don’t know what to say here,” he wrote, according to the filing. “This is the first [I] have heard of the 200K a year salary! Putting Barbara on this.” Barbara is Joe Bankman’s wife and former FTX CEO Bankman-Fried’s mom, Barbara Fried. “Bankman’s influence paid off, not only for him, but for Fried too,” FTX’s bankruptcy estate said in the Monday filing. “Within two weeks, Bankman-Fried gifted Bankman and Fried together $10 million in funds originating from Alameda Ltd. Within three months, Bankman-Fried caused the couple to be deeded a $16.4 million property in The Bahamas paid for with funds ultimately provided by FTX Trading.” Elsewhere in the document, there’s another assertion that Bankman-Fried’s parents played a key role in his business. As early as 2018, Bankman called Alameda Research – the trading firm Bankman-Fried founded that played a central role in the empire’s demise – a “family business,” a label he used repeatedly, according to the filing. It was already known Bankman-Fried’s inner circle played big roles at his companies, but this latest revelation suggests an unusual family dynamic – a parent taking advantage of their unique leverage over their child – was also possibly at play. As CoinDesk revealed last year, Bankman-Fried’s roommates were senior executives, including ex-girlfriend Caroline Ellison, who ran FTX’s sister company, Alameda Research. And, even before the empire’s November 2022 collapse, it was known that Bankman-Fried’s dad was involved with FTX. Referring to the lawsuit brought Monday against Bankman and Fried, their two attorneys told CoinDesk: “This is a dangerous attempt to intimidate Joe and Barbara and undermine the jury process just days before their child’s trial begins. These claims are completely false. [John J. Ray III, FTX’s bankruptcy-era CEO] and his massive team of lawyers, who are collectively running up countless millions of dollars in fees while returning relatively little to FTX clients, know better.”

Bitcoin’s 87% Drop in 2021 Was Caused by Sam Bankman-Fried's Alameda, Ex-Employee Claims - Disgraced trading firm Alameda Research was behind the hiccup that caused bitcoin (BTC) prices to temporarily drop over 87% in 2021, as per an ex-employee who has started to reveal the inside workings of the Sam Bankman-Fried's company. On Oct. 21, 2021, Bitcoin traders on the crypto exchange Binance.US were left scrambling after the asset plunged within minutes, with no apparent reason, while other bitcoin markets operated normally. As previously reported, bitcoin prices fell from around $65,760 to as low as $8,200 at 11:34 UTC (7:34 a.m. ET), then quickly bounced back up to almost exactly where it was before. A Binance.US spokesperson told CoinDesk at the time that the crash was due to a bug in the trading systems of one of their “institutional traders.” The actual identity of the investor remained a mystery so far, but new tweets from a former Alameda Research employee reveals that the trading firm may have been the cause of the ruckus. Baradwaj claims that while most of Alameda trades were executed using algorithms, there were times when traders could manually send orders during times of market volatility or take advantage of a profit opportunity. And this why the apparent mishap took place. “The trader was trying to sell a block of BTC in response to the news, and sent out the order via our manual trading system,” Baradwaj tweeted. “What they missed was the decimal point was off by a few spaces. Rather than selling BTC at the current market price, they sold it for pennies on the dollar.” Arbitrage traders quickly took advantage of the mispricing and restored bitcoin to normal levels. Alameda, however, lost millions of dollars. “Alameda's losses on the fat-finger trade were staggering - on the order of tens of millions. But because it had been an honest mistake, there wasn't much to do except to implement additional sanity checks for manual trades,” Baradwaj added. Baradwaj and Binance.US did not immediately respond to requests for additional comment.

Sam Bankman-Fried to stay put in jail, as court calls his release request 'unpersuasive' - On Thursday, the disgraced former CEO of bankrupt crypto exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, lost his request to be released from jail before his October trial, as the U.S. Court of Appeals declared his appeal “unpersuasive.”Three judges at the Second U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld an earlier decision from U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan saying that Bankman-Fried should stay in jail. Bankman-Fried had argued for the necessity of a pre-trial release by saying he had insufficient internet access to adequately review evidence for his trial.However, three judges on Thursday said that an earlier court "correctly determined that when a person engages in speech to commit a criminal offense such as witness tampering, that speech falls outside the zone of constitutional protection." They said that Bankman-Fried could still access what he needed to prepare for the trial from jail.In August, the crypto billionaire was transferred from house arrest in his parents’ home in Palo Alto, California to Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center for alleged witness tampering. Prosecutors say Bankman-Fried supplied sensitive diary entries to the New York Times, detailing the mental health and emotional state of his ex-girlfriend and key witness Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of FTX’s sister firm Alameda Research, which was also run by Bankman-Fried. In December 2022, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) charged Bankman-Fried with diverting FTX customer funds to his crypto hedge fund Alameda Research and defrauding investors out of more than $1.8 billion.

U.S. SEC’s Crypto Enforcement Chief Warns Charges Won't End at Coinbase, Binance -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) isn’t done chasing down crypto exchanges and decentralized finance (DeFi) projects it sees as violating securities laws in the same vein as Coinbase Inc. (COIN) and Binance, said David Hirsch, head of the agency’s Crypto Assets and Cyber Unit.His enforcement office, which has been litigating at a very unusual pace for the SEC, is aware of and investigating other firms involved in much the same activity seen at those two major platforms and that the industry’s compliance breeches “hold true well beyond any two entities,” Hirsch said Tuesday at the Securities Enforcement Forum Central in Chicago.“We’re going to continue to bring those charges,” said Hirsch, who said the regulator has a number of other businesses on its radar that are operating in similar ways to Coinbase and Binance. His agency is already embroiled in a number of complex crypto cases in federal courts, and – as seen in its effort toappeal a recent Ripple ruling – not always with complete success.Hirsch said the SEC’s interest in crypto goes well beyond the high-profile exchanges."We're going to continue to be active as to intermediaries,” he said. “That can be brokers, dealers, exchanges, clearing agencies or any others who are active in this space, are within our jurisdiction and not meeting their obligations, either through registration or failure to provide adequate or complete disclosures.”Hirsch said DeFi projects won’t escape the enforcement division’s attention, either.“We're going to continue to conduct investigations, we're gonna be active in the space, and adding the label of DeFi is not going to be something that's going to deter us from continuing our work,” he said.The U.S. securities regulator has previously been accustomed to a relatively sedate approach to enforcement, in which it targets misdeeds at regulated businesses – often large, Wall Street firms with extensive legal departments – that quickly begin negotiating settlements. Because the charges against digital assets companies routinely threaten their existence, they tend to take the agency to court.The SEC has a finite enforcement budget that is often less than the financial giants it’s used to facing, so its bandwidth is limited.“We do have a lot of litigation going on,” Hirsch conceded.“It feels like you're at capacity,” observed the event’s moderator, A. Kristina Littman, who served as the SEC’s crypto enforcement chief before Hirsch and who now works at Willkie Farr & Gallagher.Hirsch conceded that the SEC can only reach so far."There are more tokens extant -- I think maybe 20,000, 25,000, last I read -- than the SEC or any agency has the resources to pursue directly, and similarly there are a number of centralized platforms out there, some that are acting as unregistered exchanges," he said.

New York crypto regulator removes Ripple and Dogecoin from token 'greenlist' in latest update --On Monday, the New York Department of Financial Services announced an update to its virtual currency oversight regime, including new criteria for how digital firms licensed by the agency can list different cryptocurrencies. As part of the revamp, DFS removed over two dozen tokens from its “greenlist” of approved tokens, including Ripple, Dogecoin, and Litecoin. Eight tokens are still on the list, including Bitcoin, Ether, and the new PayPal Dollar. As Congress continues to drag its feet on crypto regulation, DFS has established itself as a nation-leading digital asset supervisor thanks to its BitLicense program and virtual currency unit. While the crypto industry frequently critiques the department for its laborious licensing process, the new guidance demonstrates DFS’ measured approach to crypto regulation, as other state and federal agencies opt for enforcement actions. DFS created the token greenlist as part of its broader crypto supervision. Under the previous guidance, firms licensed by DFS through its virtual currency program could gain approval to custody and list tokens by a self-certification system that helped streamline the process but still granted the department a supervisory role, as the firms still had to inform DFS. Once two firms had self-certified a token for either custody or listing, the cryptocurrency would be included in the DFS greenlist, meaning the token would be approved for custody or listing by any DFS-licensed firm, further expediting the process and facilitating the use of the approved tokens. According to an August version shared with Fortune, the greenlist previously included 25 tokens approved for custody, listing, or both, with prominent names including Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, and the new PayPal Dollar. As part of its new guidance, DFS announced it would be updating its greenlist, which now has only eight tokens. USDC, the second-largest stablecoin by market cap issued by the BitLicense grantee Circle, did not appear on either the previous or the updated versions of the greenlist. “The list of greenlisted coins has been updated to follow the new general framework for greenlisted coins,” a DFS spokesperson said in a statement shared with Fortune. In a press release shared on Monday, DFS said that the new guidance would “clarify” the department’s expectations for coin-listing and delisting policies of DFS-regulated entities. Along with updating the greenlist, DFS said it would be heightening risk assessment standards for coin-listing policies and enhancing requirements for retail customer-facing businesses, a departure from the previous self-certification system. Licensees must also now have a token-delisting policy that ensures that firms can end support for coins in a way that mitigates the impact on users.

Surprise ‘Flip’ Primes Bitcoin For A Tesla And Elon Musk Bombshell That Could Cause Crypto Price Chaos --Elon Musk, the chief executive of TeslaTSLA and owner of X (Twitter), is known for his ability to cause wild bitcoin price swings (with a recent leak revealing he's plotting something big). The bitcoin price, after soaring through 2021 thanks to support from the likes of Elon Musk, has crashed back, dropping 70% from its all-time high and wiping $2 trillion from the wider crypto market—with fears now swirling over the future of the technology. Now, bitcoin has reportedly passed the renewable energy milestone that Musk said would mean Tesla could resume accepting bitcoin as payment, just as Musk has quietly begun building X into a payments powerhouse."The bitcoin energy narrative is flipping," Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jamie Coutts posted to X alongside a note showing "the rapid rise of sustainable energy sources" in the production of new bitcoin, a process known as mining."Falling emissions plus a dramatically rising hash rate can only mean one thing; Bitcoin mining is consuming more sustainable energy in its mix," Coutts said, pointing to modelling by renewable energy investor Daniel Batten that found sustainable energy now accounts for 53% of bitcoin's total energy use.In June 2021, Musk pulled the plug on Tesla's bitcoin payments, claiming it would restart them once clean energy usage by miners was around 50%."When there’s confirmation of reasonable (~50%) clean energy usage by miners with positive future trend, Tesla will resume allowing bitcoin transactions," Musk posted to what was then called Twitter.In February of 2021, Tesla stunned markets when it revealed it had bought $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin and announced it would begin accepting bitcoin as payment. However, bitcoin payments lasted until just mid-May, with Musk citing bitcoin's eye-watering energy use.

The Fed says it can regulate stablecoins. So why doesn't it? --The Federal Reserve wants oversight of stablecoins, but some lawyers and policy analysts say the only things keeping the central bank from exerting that authority are its own words and actions. Earlier this month, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said he is "deeply concerned" about unregulated stablecoins, stressing that their proliferation could "pose significant risks to financial stability, monetary policy, and the U.S. payments system." The comments echoed previous comments by other officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who called for Fed oversight of dollar-backed digital assets a year ago. Yet, some say the Fed's official position that stablecoins should be within its regulatory perimeter is undermined by supervisory guidance on the matter, its denial of membership to state-chartered banks that transact with stablecoins, and the agency's overall tone of commentary about the risks posed by the asset class."It sometimes feels like it's a little bit of a tug of war," said Joseph Silvia, partner at the law firm Dickinson Wright and a former counsel at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. "There's guidance on how to do it, but it's very clear that the Fed still doesn't like it. They see too much risk or volatility."In his first remarks on crypto assets last October, Barr urged banks to be cautious when engaging with the novel technologies. The comments came just weeks before the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX in November. A rash of guidance from the Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in the months that followed emphasized stern warnings about volatility and run risks in the stablecoin sector.Barr, like other Fed officials, wants Congress to codify a regulatory framework for stablecoins, but such efforts have repeatedly stalled in the House and have gained virtually no traction in the Senate. He has also argued that stablecoins constitute private money, a designation that would give the Fed jurisdiction over digital assets pegged to the value of the U.S. dollar."Stablecoins are a form of money, and the ultimate source of credibility in money is the central bank," Barr said last week. "If non-federally regulated stablecoins were to become a widespread means of payment and store of value, they could pose significant risks to financial stability, monetary policy, and the U.S. payments system."Lawyers familiar with the matter say there is no specific statute in the Federal Reserve Act that directs the central bank to regulate private money, but there is a consensus that payments-related issues are firmly within the Fed's remit.

Fed governor calls for transparency, accountability in AI models - Federal Reserve Board Gov. Lisa Cook said artificial intelligence technology is poised to be a boon to innovation, productivity and even the labor market, but it will also come with new ethical obligations. Cook delivered a keynote address Friday morning at the National Bureau of Economic Research's Economics of Artificial Intelligence Conference in Toronto. During her remarks, which were broadly supportive of the technology, she said humans would still be accountable for actions they take based on AI recommendations. "AI makes predictions, but AI does not make choices," she said. "Ultimately, human beings are still in control." Cook also stressed the importance of ensuring transparency and accountability around AI-generated decisions. "Importantly, in the policy arena — as well as health care, consumer finance, insurance, and many others — decisionmakers have legal and ethical duties to be deliberate about the effects their choices have on affected groups," she said. "In this context, an AI black-box with no insight into the decision-making process is of limited value." Cook added that she looks at AI-generated forecasts with a "skeptical eye" if they are not accompanied by an explanation of what drives them. She said this is especially important when someone is impacted by a decision and wants to appeal it."I am particularly interested in seeing progress on 'explainable AI,'" she said. "Which may help bridge the divide between the technical sphere and the user." Bank regulators have been monitoring the advancement of AI and its potential implications for the banking sector for years, but have only recently begun issuing guidance around the subject, with a focus on its potential to discriminate against certain types of borrowers. In July, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr warned that the technology could "perpetuate or even amplify" bias in the mortgage lending sector. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra has been the administration's most ardent skeptic of AI in financial underwriting. Last year he warned firms to be wary of decisions generated by black-box algorithms, noting that they are still responsible for acting upon such recommendations. "The law gives every applicant the right to a specific explanation if their application for credit was denied, and that right is not diminished simply because a company uses a complex algorithm that it doesn't understand," he said.

BankThink: A new trend in regtech is a gift to money laundering criminals | American Banker --Financial crime thrives in darkness. Criminals looking to launder money or otherwise fund illicit activity take every opportunity to hide or move money in such a way as to make tracking a flow of funds impossible. And with an endless number of accounts, banks and payment rails for bad actors to choose from, anti-money-laundering specialists and other financial crime investigators are at a strategic disadvantage when attempting to map this criminal activity. In order to level the playing field, financial institutions need to be able to empower their AML teams with the ability to share information about suspicious activity happening at their organizations. On paper, this tool already exists: the 314(b) clause of the Patriot Act allows for participating financial institutions to share information with one another. But the method of exchange — which is done on a case-by-case basis and doesn't allow for the identification of larger organized crime patterns — doesn't allow for either institution to benefit from the last decade's breakthroughs in data-sharing and information analysis. Recently, there has been industry buzz about a few regtech companies who were busy creating "information-sharing consortia," a type of coalition whose members agree to share data for the purpose of fighting financial crime. But while the spirit and line of thinking is good, the creation of these consortia carries a significant flaw: the data is managed by the regtech company sponsoring the consortia, and is only available to the vendor and participating customers. What's wrong with this? Without interoperability standards allowing our industry to enable safe and secure information sharing regardless of the platform, we risk creating new silos that criminals can evade just as easily as they exploit the ones that exist today. If our true motivation is to make life difficult for the bad guys, we need to collaborate as openly as possible without restrictions, and we need to share much more information — without membership requirements beyond our shared goal of exposing bad actors. What would an industry-based information-sharing program look like? It could come together in many ways, but here are some preliminary thoughts.

Goldman Sachs, Citadel Securities pay SEC millions over trade labeling -Goldman Sachs and Citadel Securities each reached multimillion-dollar settlements with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday over how they labeled millions of trades. Goldman agreed to pay a $6 million fine for sending inaccurate or incomplete trading data to the SEC on at least 163 million transactions over the course of a decade. Meanwhile, the SEC said that a coding error at Citadel Securities led to short sales being labeled as longs, and vice versa, and that Ken Griffin's market-making firm would pay $7 million. Gurbir Grewal, the SEC's enforcement director, has made recordkeeping lapses a priority of his tenure. Unrelated to Friday's cases, more than a dozen Wall Street firms have paid over $2.5 billion in fines combined for using personal phones and messaging services like WhatsApp to conduct business — fines brought under recordkeeping rules. Friday's settlements are part of a flurry of activity from the SEC's enforcement staff before the end of the fiscal year next week. The agency's penalty and case volume is closely watched by Congress, and September is historically the busiest month. A looming government shutdown adds additional pressure to finish probes. Many SEC employees will not be able to work starting in October, if Congress cannot agree on a deal to fund the government.

Loan shark freed by Trump ordered to repay thousands of victims -- A loan shark who was freed from prison by then-President Donald Trump in the last days of his term has been ordered to repay tens of millions of dollars to thousands of small businesses across the United States. Jonathan Braun, who was serving a 10-year prison term on drug charges when Trump commuted his sentence in January 2021, is among four lenders who were ordered by a New York judge to cease all collection efforts, refund money to customers and provide a judge with a complete accounting of all funds collected over nearly a decade. The ruling comes in a lawsuit New York Attorney General Letitia James filed in 2020, claiming Braun and others made thousands of illegal loans known as "merchant cash advances" to small businesses, charged annualized interest that sometimes exceeded 1,000% and defrauded and harassed borrowers. James's lawsuit targets conduct that occurred before Braun went to prison on the drug charges in January 2020. Citing a Bloomberg Businessweek report and other evidence, James's office had told the judge that Braun returned to the lending business not long after being released from prison in 2021. Trump's White House didn't mention James's pending suit against Braun or his lending activities when the drug sentence was commuted. The former president has, however, frequently accused New York's attorney general of bringing partisan cases. James sued Trump and his company for $250 million last year in a civil fraud case that's heading to trial next month.

Professors Point to JPMorgan Chase as Poster Boy of a Financial System Dependent on Corruption to Sustain Itself -- By Pam and Russ Martens ~ The full day conference sponsored by nonprofit watchdog Better Markets last Wednesday was a unique opportunity to gain brilliant insights from academic experts who have battled on the frontlines of the most unprecedented and ongoing era of corruption in U.S. financial history. (You can watch it on YouTube at this link.) In fact, at the close of the conference, Anat Admati, Professor of Finance and Economics at Stanford Graduate School of Business, summed up the U.S. financial system in five words: “Corruption has become the system.” Admati’s celebrated 2013 book, The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It, co-authored with German economist Martin Hellwig, will have an expanded new edition coming out in early January. The new edition includes coverage of the banking failures this spring and four new chapters: “Too Fragile Still,” “Bailouts and Central Banks,” “Bailouts Forever,” and “Above the Law?” Given its serial crimes, it is not surprising that JPMorgan Chase is featured in the chapter, “Above the Law?” Admati and Hellwig dig into the Justice Department’s settlement with JPMorgan Chase over its London Whale scandal. (In that case, the bank’s Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, did not lose his job, despite the fact that the bank used deposits from its federally-insured banking unit to make massive gambles in high-risk derivatives in London and lose $6.2 billion of depositors’ money..) The London Whale episode in 2012 clearly showed that the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999, which had barred for 66 years the merger of Wall Street trading houses and investment banks with federally-insured commercial banks, was a dangerous mistake. Even the New York Times apologized that year for its editorial board waving the pompoms to repeal the Glass-Steagall Act. The Times acknowledged that it had been wrong. The gambles that JPMorgan Chase took with deposits from its federally-insured bank were so outrageous that the U.S. Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations spent nine months investigating the matter and delivered a 300-page report, which noted the following: “The JPMorgan Chase whale trades provide a startling and instructive case history of how synthetic credit derivatives have become a multi-billion dollar source of risk within the U.S. banking system. They also demonstrate how inadequate derivative valuation practices enabled traders to hide substantial losses for months at a time; lax hedging practices obscured whether derivatives were being used to offset risk or take risk; risk limit breaches were routinely disregarded; risk evaluation models were manipulated to downplay risk; inadequate regulatory oversight was too easily dodged or stonewalled; and derivative trading and financial results were misrepresented to investors, regulators, policymakers, and the taxpaying public who, when banks lose big, may be required to finance multi-billion-dollar bailouts.” Since the London Whale debacle in 2012, and under Dimon’s stewardship, JPMorgan Chase has admitted to five felony charges brought by the U.S. Department of Justice and entered into three deferred-prosecution agreements and two non-prosecution agreements with the DOJ. And yet, there is zero indication that its appetite for crime in order to boost profits has been satisfied. The Attorney General of the U.S. Virgin Islands has currently brought credible evidence into federal court in Manhattan that JPMorgan Chase “actively participated” in Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking of minors by ignoring a decade of his money laundering inside the bank – the very money laundering conduct that resulted in the bank admitting to two felony counts in 2014 for its decades of providing banking “services” to Ponzi mastermind Bernie Madoff. In both cases, the bank failed to file the legally mandated Suspicious Activity Reports with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) despite internal communications showing it was well aware that the financial transactions were highly suspicious. Notwithstanding this unprecedented crime wave at JPMorgan Chase, and the ability of Jamie Dimon to not only remain at the helm of the biggest bank in the U.S. but to become a billionaire from the stock options lavished on him by his Board, federal regulators proved themselves to be the toadies that millions of Americans suspect them to be, when they allowed JPMorgan Chase to get $200 billion bigger this spring. George Washington University Law Professor, Art Wilmarth, author of Taming the Megabanks: Why We Need a New Glass-Steagall Act, explained during the Better Markets conference last week exactly what transpired this spring when regulators handed JPMorgan Chase the collapsed bank, First Republic: [much more]

Republicans double-down on request to Fed for Basel III economic analysis -- Reserve for data related to its Basel III endgame proposal, part of lawmakers' attempts to undermine the central bank as it pursues the rulemaking that would raise capital requirements for large banks. In a hearing Tuesday, Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., chairman of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy, repeated calls for the Fed, along with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, to release a cost-benefit analysis related to the Basel III endgame proposal. Barr said that the regulators have not properly considered how the proposal would impact financial markets and the economy. "That requires analysis, which the federal banking regulators in their hurriedness have not done," Barr said. "Will liquidity in Treasury markets dry up because of the tangled web of proposals? Will first-time homebuyers be shut out of the dream of homeownership? Will the car and truck buyers find they can no longer afford personal transportation because auto credit is too costly for most and not available for many?"The most recent hearing follows a similar one by the same subcommittee, in which Republicans started to build a case for a potential legal challenge to the Basel III proposal from U.S. banking regulators. Last week, banking trade groups sent a letter to regulators, accusing the agencies of using nonpublic data for the proposal, which they said violates the standards of the Administrative Procedure Act. Barr, at the most recent hearing, continued to make claims about the validity of the rulemaking considering the Administrative Procedure Act, which could further set up Republicans to challenge the rule, especially should the party gain control of both chambers in the 2024 elections. "Neither Congress, nor the industry being regulated, nor the American people, including consumers, families, small businesses, farmers and ranchers, and municipalities, know what to expect from the incredibly complex, interconnected, and hazy web of what has been proposed," Barr said. "The risks of working hastily without analytical support are high and systemic. The process of rolling out the under-analyzed Basel-related capital proposal shows clear violations of the Administrative Procedures Act, thereby running counter to the law." Rep. Bill Foster, D-Ill., ranking member of the subcommittee, joined Barr in a letter to regulators originally requesting the data around the Basel III endgame proposal. "I believe that having access to the data and assumptions and methodology would allow for a more informed discussion across the board here," Foster said. "But I think we also have to recognize that bank capital requirements and regulation is never going to be an exact science. You can reasonably model the costs of any increase or decrease in bank capital requirements or other things, the costs of compliance of increased stress testing, and so on."

Fed's Bowman urges bankers to comment on regulatory proposals | American Banker --Federal Reserve Board Gov. Michelle Bowman called for banks to provide comments and express concerns about recent regulatory proposals from the central bank.During brief remarks at an event hosted by the Independent Community Bankers of Colorado on Friday, Bowman said it was "absolutely imperative" that bankers flag potential consequences from rule changes being considered. She also urged them not to be discouraged by the fact that there are several large policy changes for them to wade through at once."I recognize that in some instances, multiple, interrelated proposals out for comment at the same time may complicate or even frustrate the ability to provide meaningful comment," she said. "Even so, I strongly encourage your participation to inform the rulemaking process."Bowman's call to action was aimed at July's Basel III endgame proposal, which would adjust risk capital rules for banks with more than $100 billion in assets, as well as last month's proposal on resolution standards, which would expand long-term debt requirements to a large pool of banks. She also noted that the Fed was contemplating revisions to the Community Reinvestment Act, exploring climate-focused regulations and making additional revisions to Regulation II, which governs credit card processing fees. Last fall, the Fed finalized a rule requiring all card-not-present transactions be able to be routed through at least two networks — a change that Bowman voted against. Bowman has emerged as a leading voice against the Fed's effort to increase capital in the banking system. She and Gov. Christopher Waller voted against issuing the Basel III endgame proposal earlier this summer on the grounds that the changes were unnecessary and would lead to higher costs for banks and, ultimately, their customers.Bowman and Waller — the last members of the Board of Governors that former President Donald Trump appointed — also expressed trepidation about the long-term debt and resolution plan requirements proposed in August. Both worry the rules would undermine the Fed's tailoring principles, which reserve the strictest oversight standards to the most systemically risky banks.During her speech Friday, Bowman said the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and two other large regional banks this past spring highlighted shortcomings in bank supervision and regulation that should be addressed. But, she said, any policy changes implemented by the Fed should be focused on addressing specific issues that contributed to this year's bank failures. She also said new rules should be "informed by data, analysis, and genuine debate and discussion among policymakers."

FDIC's Hill: Pause new bank regulations amid interest rate environment — Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Board Vice Chair Travis Hill said Thursday that regulators should pump the brakes on a host of proposed regulations until interest rates have stabilized. In remarks delivered to the Cato Institute Thursday, Hill said that completing a slate of ambitious new rules around capital, liquidity, living wills and other cost-intensive areas — combined with an already precarious economy and a tighter interest rate environment — could lead to unintended consequences."While I think that some response to the bank failures is warranted, I worry that an overreaction is underway, and that we are moving too quickly to impose a long list of new rules and expectations at a time when conditions remain precarious," Hill said. "There's a compelling case to at least try to get through the rate cycle and sort of see where we are when the dust settles, and then we can kind of take stock of what all the lessons learned are, and sort of decide which of the policy proposals are most worthwhile."Regulators have unveiled a laundry list of new regulations including those implementing international banking standards related to capital retention and others responding to March's bank failures.Often referred to as the Basel endgame proposal, the rules would compel banks with between $100 billion and $700 billion in total assets to use standardized risk models for market, credit and operational risk rather than allowing them to self evaluate such indicators. Firms would also need to include unrealized gains and losses on available-for-sale securities when calculating capital and lower the threshold for application of the supplementary leverage ratio and the countercyclical capital buffer from $250 billion to $100 billion in total assets. Hill echoed banking trade groups in asserting that regulators' recently proposed rules implementing Basel III standards were unnecessary and would incentivize banks to reduce the availability of and raise the cost of loans to consumers. "Our capital rules for our largest banks are already meaningfully more conservative than those in other developed jurisdictions," Hill noted. "The result [of these rules] will be some combination of higher prices and less availability of products and services."

CFPB outlines sweeping data proposal, drawing swift bank condemnation --The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has proposed substantial changes to the Fair Credit Reporting Act that would require any company that collects and sells consumer data to be covered by the 1970 law. The proposal marks a monumental shift in how courts have interpreted requirements under the FCRA, experts said, and could limit the ability of consumers to verify their identities to companies such as Netflix or Hulu while also opening the floodgates for data brokers and aggregators to be sued in class-action lawsuits.The CFPB released a 96-page outline of its proposed rule late Thursday from the White House, where Vice President Kamala Harris and CFPB Director Rohit Chopra highlighted how the plan would aid American families by eliminating all medical debts from consumers' credit reports. However, much of that work has already been done by the three credit reporting bureaus — Equifax, Experian and TransUnion — which earlier this year voluntarily removed medical debts of up to $500 from credit reports. Part of the CFPB's proposal would scrub the remaining 30% of medical debts that have not been removed from credit reports, experts said."In our country, one in three adults, some 100 million Americans, struggle with unpaid medical bills," Harris said on a press call with reporters. "Once this rule is final, it will mean that consumer credit reports will not include medical debt, and that creditors will not be able to use medical debt to determine a person's eligibility for credit."Addressing medical debt is just one part of the proposal, but it is expected to draw the ire of medical service providers and collection agencies, as well as banks and financial firms that rely on accurate information in credit reports to make underwriting decisions. "Removing this data from the system will degrade the value of traditional credit reports," said Alan Wingfield, a partner at Troutman Pepper. "It could have a negative impact on credit models, with creditors not understanding the full financial pressure consumers are under if [consumers] have a lot of unpaid medical debt that they are responsible for but that is eradicated from the system."Chopra said the CFPB's proposed rule would prohibit lenders from using certain medical billing information in underwriting decisions. The CFPB's research found that half of all debt collections were for medical bills and that most debt collectors have no way of verifying the accuracy of a medical debt."Medical billing history has very limited predictive value in underwriting decisions on loans," Chopra said on the press call. "If credit bureaus are pulling much of this information already because it isn't a good predictor of risk, why should creditors see your medical bills at all? Why are we continuing to allow debt collectors to use credit reports to pressure people into paying questionable bills?"Under the proposal, the CFPB is considering rewriting exemptions in the FCRA for medical debt, said a senior CFPB official.

Gruenberg calls for tailored FSOC designations, more nonbank reporting | American Banker— Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Martin Gruenberg said Wednesday he would like to see the Financial Stability Oversight Council consider applying tailored enhanced prudential standards and enhanced reporting requirements to particular nonbanks' like open-ended mutual funds, hedge funds and nonbank lenders. In a speech delivered to the Exchequer Club, Gruenberg also noted that such firms — not well understood by regulators — would need to report more information so the agencies could better understand the role they play and the risks they pose. "Consideration should be given to the development of a more tailored process that reduces undue financial system risk while applying prudential regulation and resolution planning requirements that are fit for purpose in the context of a particular nonbank financial institution's risks," he said. "The FSOC, the Office of Financial Research and individual FSOC agencies should work together to establish a reporting framework to ensure that the FSOC has appropriate information to assess the financial stability risks of nonbanks and the activities in which they engage, and to ensure that public reporting is sufficient for market participants to appropriately understand the counterparty risks associated with individual nonbank financial institutions." The Financial Stability Board — made up of national financial authorities and international standard-setting bodies — defines nonbank financial institutions as any financial firms that are not central banks, licensed nominal banks, or public financial institutions like the World Bank. Under the Dodd-Frank act, the FSOC — a council chaired by the heads of the federal financial regulators created after the 2008 financial crisis — is authorized to deem nonbank firms systemically risky and subject them to Federal reserve supervision and enhanced prudential standards.Gruenberg said he believed nonbanks' insufficient regulation, opacity and lack of limits to their reliance on leverage contributed to worsening both the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 economic emergency. In both cases the Federal Reserve ultimately utilized its power to provide emergency lending facilities to such firms to stave off systemic contagion."The experience with nonbank financial institutions through these two crises underscores the financial stability risks they can pose, the resulting claim they have on public support, and the urgent need to give careful consideration to how to address those risks," he said.

Yellen, Treasury roll out net-zero principles, warn of stranded assets -- The Treasury Department rolled out a set of principles for financial institutions interested in pursuing carbon-neutral business plans on Monday afternoon. Adherence to the nine-part guidance is voluntary, but principles aim to establish some level of uniformity in the financial industry's climate pursuits while minimizing opportunities forgreenwashing. In a speech at the Bloomberg Transition Finance Action Forum in New York City, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called climate change both a threat to the U.S.'s economic strength and an opportunity for growth, citing researcher estimates that the transition to a carbon-neutral economy will create $3 trillion of annual global investment opportunities between now and 2050. "In the U.S., this means hundreds of billions in investment opportunities to enhance power generation and the electrical grid, retrofit buildings, and make advancements in agriculture, manufacturing, and transportation," Yellen said. She also warned that financial firms that fail to create policies around climate change do so at their own peril. "There is extensive evidence showing that the changing climate has significant financial impacts," Yellen said. "Without considering these factors, financial institutions risk being left behind with stranded assets, outdated business models, and missed opportunities to invest in the growing clean energy economy."

Fincen issues small-business guide to beneficial ownership rules — The Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network announced Monday most U.S. corporations, limited-liability companies and U.S. operations of foreign companies will need to report information about their beneficial owners as of the new year. "This is a critical step towards implementing the Corporate Transparency Act, which will help the Treasury Department and Fincen expose bad actors abusing the U.S. financial system by hiding their identity behind opaque corporate structures," noted Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson in a press release. While most companies will be subject to these new reporting requirements, if a company falls into one of 23 categories, it may be exempt from reporting requirements. Many exempt industries outlined in Fincen's compliance guide released Monday include certain highly regulated entities for which BOI reporting would likely be redundant including banks, credit unions, government authorities, securities exchanges and insurance companies. Tax-exempt organizations, subsidiaries of certain exempt companies, inactive companies and public utilities are also exempted. The agency defines an individual as exercising "substantial control" over a business if they hold the position of a senior officer, have authority to hire and fire a majority of company directors, play a crucial role in decision-making or maintain substantial control, as defined by Fincen. This broad definition will provide the agency substantial flexibility in identifying beneficial owners, especially in less conventional business structures which may evade the criteria. The guidance also includes a definition of ownership interest, encompassing various financial instruments. "Any of the following may be an ownership interest: equity, stock, or voting rights; a capital or profit interest; convertible instruments; options or other non-binding privileges to buy or sell any of the foregoing; and any other instrument, contract, or other mechanism used to establish ownership," the guidance noted.

We have a SAFE banking agreement. But will enough Republicans get on board? — Lawmakers in the Senate have reached an agreement on a bill, which would make it easier for banks to offer services to legal marijuana businesses, ahead of a planned markup on the legislation next week. The question now for the bill, momentum for which has started and stalled in Congress for years, is how enthusiastic Republicans will be to support the legislation through a broader Senate vote, and in the House. "It appears that this new version has appeased some Republicans but not others," said Ian Katz, an analyst with Capital Alpha Partners. "I'm not sure that's helpful to the bill in the Republican-controlled House. My question is whether the leadership in the House will want to pursue a bill that seems to be divisive among the party's lawmakers. The leadership might just feel like it's not worth the bother and they'd rather not have to vote on it at all." The agreement, and updated text, of the now titled SAFER Banking Act means that next week's markup, scheduled for Wednesday in the Senate Banking Committee, is expected to mostly go smoothly. It's rare for the head of a Senate Committee, especially Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, to schedule a markup unless he believes he has the votes to pass legislation.Historically, that's been difficult for Democratic lawmakers to accomplish, with Republicans resisting attempts to turn the bill into a social justice package amid Democratic wishlist items like trying to include language that would expunge prior criminal convictions for cannabis possession. While Senate leaders have been somewhat successful in swaying some Republicans, including some in states where recreational marijuana is still illegal, attitudes remain skeptical in the House. "I think it's kind of funny, calling it the SAFER Banking Act," said Ed Mills, managing director of Washington policy at Raymond James. "Democrats have been long looking for another R to add to this bill. The unfortunate thing is the only R they can add on is in the title." This will only be the second markup of Brown's chairmanship, with the first one being the RECOUP Act, which would allow the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to more easily claw back the compensation of failed bank executives. The deal follows months of negotiations between Democratic and Republican lawmakers in the Senate, largely over Section 10 of the bill. That section deals with banks' ability to decline working with some controversial businesses, including firearm manufacturers or reproductive health providers.

Cannabis banking is a reality. So do banks still need the SAFE Banking bill? — As the Senate stands poised to hold its first markup of the Secure and Fair Enforcement Act, or SAFE Banking Act — a bill that allows banks and payments companies to do business with cannabis companies in states where the substance is legal — some experts say that in the decade since state-level recreational legalization has taken root, banks have adapted to serve the industry just fine. Tyler Beuerlein, chief strategic business development officer at Safe Harbor Financial — a firm that assists cannabis businesses to find banking solutions — says there is a decreasing need for such legislation as cannabis businesses already have a relatively wide array of options at their disposal for accessing banklike services. "There are hundreds of [banking] options depending on operator type, location and size and we provide banking services to the industry in all state legal markets [meaning] finding a transparent banking option is no longer the 'heavy lift' it has been in the past," he wrote in an email. "There are a few of what I would call regtech and/or fintech companies [like Safe Harbor] who service the sector in partnership with banks and credit unions." Banks servicing the industry, he said, have assets north of $50 billion and can be found across the country and with varying depository charters. Though fintech partnerships like Safe Harbor have forged a durable link between the industry and more risk-tolerant financial firms, Beuerlein noted the largest, most traditional banks continue to face a series of challenges to banking cannabis. Despite questioning its relevance today, Beuerlein said he still supports the SAFE Banking Act, though he is pessimistic about its chances of ever passing after the bill has stalled for years. "The bigger question is what would it accomplish at this point?" Beuerlein said. "It would be difficult to find a cannabis operator without a transparent banking relationship at this point." Beuerlein added that the Secure and Fair Enforcement Act, or SAFE Banking Act, which has been stalled for years in Congress but would allow banks to do business with cannabis businesses in states where it is legal, solves some but not all of the complications that come with cannabis banking. Tax provisions like Section 280E, which prohibits tax deductions related to the sale of schedule I and II substances, remain uncorrected in the legislation. "If [SAFE] enabled the U.S.-based cannabis companies to access the U.S. capital markets, increased lending options, compelled the branded card networks to enter the cannabis industry or eliminated 280E, then it will have been well worth the wait," he said. "My concern is that it may not accomplish any of the above."

Banks, credit unions get dementia training to fight financial abuse --With cases of dementia expected to more than double in the U.S. by 2050, some credit unions and banks are taking steps to better recognize symptoms in their customers and members.More than 6 million Americans are living with Alzheimer's, which is the most common cause of dementia. Total Alzheimer's ases are expected to reach nearly 13 million in the next 27 years, according to the Alzheimer's Association.The situation is especially critical in Arizona. Dementia cases in the state are expected to grow by a third by 2025 — the highest projected growth rate in the nation, according to the Alzheimer's Association.So Landings Credit Union in Tempe recently decided to be proactive and get its staff trained."We brought nearly all our staff together and learned about the early signs and symptoms of dementia, which range from memory loss disrupting daily life to challenges with vision and speech," said Landings President and CEO Brian Lee in an interview. "Each symptom included examples and led to staff sharing personal experiences about their family or our members."The training was conducted by Oakwood Creative Care, a nonprofit that supports the aging community, and resulted in Landings being designated a "dementia friendly" institution.The average age of Landings' membership is rising, according to Lee. The credit union has worked on developing programs to attract younger members, but it is also looking at how it can serve its members across different life stages, including the elderly, Lee said.People with dementia can experience greater difficulties managing their finances, forget to pay their bills and suffer financial abuse. As the credit union learns more about recognizing the signs of dementia, it is working on improving how it reacts to those signs, Lee said. "Regarding potential financial abuse, we are looking for instances where third parties may be misusing our members' funds. We look for unusual account withdrawals, drastic shifts in transfers or wires and other signs of intimidation or reluctance to speak in front of a care provider," Lee said.

Farm bill negotiations carry high stakes for rural bankers — As Capitol Hill once again stares down the possibility of a spending standoff and potential government shutdown, lawmakers are also negotiating another large piece of must-pass legislation that affects many banks: the farm bill. Agriculture bankers and rural financial institutions benefit from crop insurance, which guarantees farmers a base price for their products. That coverage, in turn, means that those farmers' lenders can safely assume they will get paid. Farming can be a capital-intensive and risky industry, so the farm bill — one of the largest spending bills and the legislative basis for programs like crop insurance and food assistance — is meant to stabilize the ag industry. "If there's a golden nugget for bankers, it's the continuation of the federal crop insurance program," said John Blanchfield, principal at Agricultural Banking Advisory Services and a former senior vice president at the American Bankers Association. "It provides two flavors of income security to the farmer, and therefore his or her banker. Flavor one is the protection against weather-related damages — that's the traditional product. And the second is income protection, where a farmer may buy a floor price for their crop, and by doing so, the farmer has income certainty and the bank has repayment certainty." The farm bill is meant to be negotiated every five years. This year, farmers and their bankers have to deal with a strong new group of conservative lawmakers who, angered by the expansion of federal spending during the pandemic, are looking to cut federal appropriations and may hold up passage of the legislation over the amount spent on food assistance programs. The current funding for the farm bill expires at the end of September, but experts estimate that lawmakers aren't far enough along in negotiations to pass another five-year bill by Sept. 30. Instead, those experts anticipate a shorter-term solution, possibly a one-year renewal. "Realistically, looking at where we are, it's extremely unlikely that we get a farm bill by the time it expires at the end of the fiscal year," said Nan Swift, a fellow at lobbying firm R Street who focuses on the bill. "Given the threat of a shutdown, it's hard to see where the momentum will be or where we'll have the time necessary on [the House or Senate] floor." Still, Swift said that it's not unusual for ag legislation to get a one-year or six-month extension, and that most of the programs that rely on the farm bill could continue for several more months. "Things can keep going on autopilot for a while, and a lot is mandatory spending," she said. "However, once we hit January and some programs start to expire, then we do have a problem."

Big-bank borrowing rebound seen as sign of alarm on reserves --An increase in U.S. commercial banks' borrowings suggests they're uncomfortable losing any more reserves as depositors seek better returns elsewhere, according to Citigroup analysts. After declines in June and July, the largest U.S. banks increased their borrowing in August by 9%, or $70 billion, Federal Reserve data shows. Concurrently, the Federal Home Loan Bank System, a general liquidity provider for banks, saw total debt outstanding rise to $1.249 trillion from $1.245 trillion in July. Depositors have been leaving banks of all sizes since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates 18 months ago, leading to the emergence of higher-yielding alternatives. The outflows peaked in March when Silicon Valley Bank and several other institutions failed. While the turmoil has abated, cash is still leaving. Bank reserves also face pressure from growth in borrowing by the U.S. government in the form of Treasury securities. The increase in borrowing by large banks indicates that they "are not comfortable letting reserves fall much further from current levels," Citi strategists Shuo Li and Jason Williams say in a report. Wall Street strategists have estimated the banking system's aggregate lowest comfortable level of reserves is somewhere around $2.5 trillion. Scarcity has caused problems in the past, most notably in September 2019, when the Treasury increased borrowing and the Fed stopped buying as many Treasuries for its balance sheet. Between the turmoil in March and uncertainty surrounding the Basel III reforms, banks are motivated to hold more reserves than they may actually need and lean more on the Home Loan banks.

FDIC fights suit by Minnesota bankers over NSF fee guidance - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is defending regulatory guidance warning banks about fees that customers can be charged when their transactions get rejected due to a lack of sufficient funds.In a court filing this week, the FDIC asked a federal judge to dismiss a lawsuit filed by Minnesota banks in July. The plaintiffs in the suit, the Minnesota Bankers Association and one of its member banks, lack standing to challenge the agency's guidance, the FDIC said.The FDIC's motion to dismiss is the latest development in a battle between banks and their regulators over so-called nonsufficient funds fees.The lawsuit's plaintiffs contend that the FDIC overstepped its authority by issuing the supervisory guidance, which tells FDIC-supervised banks that under certain circumstances, charging multiple NSF fees qualifies as an unfair practice.But the FDIC is arguing that its August 2022 guidance does not create new obligations for banks."The supervisory guidance is exactly what it appears to be — guidance," wrote attorneys for the FDIC and Chair Martin Gruenberg. "It does not ban this practice, it does not create new obligations or independent legal consequences, and it does not serve as a basis for future enforcement actions."The FDIC isn't the only regulator that has started to reassess its treatment of financial institutions that allegedly charge excessive NSF fees.The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency sanctioned Bank of America in July for charging multiple NSF fees on a single transaction. The CFPB is also in the initial stages of writing a rule that addresses NSF fees, the agency saidearlier this year.Further limitations on when and how banks can charge NSF fees could weigh on fee revenue at banks large and small. The banking industry's curtailment of overdraft-related fees in recent years has already had an impact. Overdraft fees reached their lowest average level in 19 yearsin 2022, according to data from Bankrate.com.

FDIC inspector general gives thumbs-up to economic inclusion strategy — A recent report by the Office of the Inspector General for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. found that the regulator's strategic plan for expanding economic inclusion was satisfactory, but said there is still room for improvement. The OIG said the FDIC could improve its results by formally enshrining procedures for such plans going forward, performing self-evaluations and incorporating more feedback from banks. "These actions would help management make the best use of Agency resources, ensure accountability, monitor progress, and make its strategic plan more effective in promoting economic inclusion," the report noted.The FDIC's Division of Depositor and Consumer Protection is the branch of the agency charged with addressing economic inclusion and it focuses on strengthening positive connections between banks and their communities. The FDIC's OIG report evaluated the DCP's Economic Inclusion Strategic Plan, which the division published in June 2019.FDIC's website notes the 2019 EISP was intended to promote the usage of affordable and sustainable products and services that can help consumers work successfully with banks to meet their financial goals. Overall, the FDIC's OIG made 14 recommendations the agency could utilize to sharpen their EISPs in the future.The OIG suggested the FDIC create clear rules and guidelines for making future plans related to economic inclusion. They also recommended the agency start collecting input from banks through surveys or other means which would be used in the FDIC's future efforts to promote economic inclusion.The OIG noted the FDIC should develop a consistent framework for assessing and reporting on how well the agency is doing with their economic inclusion goals and objectives. They also said the agency should make sure that the yearly economic inclusion goals they set for themselves match what they've planned for in their strategy. The report also noted the FDIC should check if they need to move resources around to meet their economic inclusion goals. The OIG also said the FDIC should evaluate the clarity and efficacy of strategies it uses to reduce risks in its economic inclusion plans.The FDIC has placed a particular focus on addressing the issue of unbanked and underbanked consumers — the former being individuals without banking services, the latter those who rely on nonbanks for financial services — after its own statistics underscored a dearth in domestic financial inclusion.

CFPB issues guidance on credit denials that use artificial intelligence - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau warned lenders of the requirement to provide specific and accurate reasons when denying credit to a consumer, reiterating the agency's skepticism of artificial intelligence and advanced algorithms in underwriting decisions. On Tuesday, the CFPB issued guidance on the use of artificial intelligence in underwriting and the explanations given to consumers who are denied credit. The bureau said that creditors are relying inappropriately on a checklist of reasons provided by the CFPB in sample forms. The bureau said that creditors instead must provide specific reasons and details to explain why a consumer is denied credit or why a credit limit was changed. "Creditors must be able to specifically explain their reasons for denial. There is no special exemption for artificial intelligence," CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a press release. "Technology marketed as artificial intelligence is expanding the data used for lending decisions, and also growing the list of potential reasons for why credit is denied." The agency also warned lenders against using data harvested from consumer surveillance or data that is not typically found in a consumer's credit file or credit application. The bureau said that consumers can be harmed by the use of surveillance data given that "some of these data may not intuitively relate to the likelihood that a consumer will repay a loan." Under the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, a landmark 1974 anti-discrimination statute, a creditor is required to provide an applicant with a reason for denying, revoking or changing the terms of an existing extension of credit. The explanation is known as an adverse action notice. Credit applicants and borrowers receive adverse action notices when credit is denied, an existing account gets terminated or an account's terms are changed. The notices discourage discrimination, and help applicants and borrowers understand the reasons behind a creditors' decisions, the CFPB said. The CFPB said that a lender is not in compliance with ECOA if the reasons given to the consumer are "overly broad, vague, or otherwise fail to inform the applicant of the specific and principal reasons for an adverse action." The guidance serves as a warning to lenders that are using sample CFPB forms and a CFPB checklist of reasons for denying credit. The bureau said that creditors that select inaccurate reasons on a checklist are not in compliance with the law.

BankThink: Credit card interest rate caps are the answer to the U.S. debt crisis | American Banker - American households are drowning in credit card debt. In recent months, aggregate credit card borrowing has surged past $1 trillion, while credit card interest rates have been rising on the back of the Fed's tightening monetary policy. Last week, Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley took action,introducing legislation that would cap credit card interest at 18%. "Americans are being crushed under the weight of record credit card debt," Hawley argued, adding that "working people" need relief. Hawley is right. The question is whether he is serious. At present, his bill is a legislative sound bite: 19 lines of headline grabbing text. It can — and should — be much more. For decades, state-level price caps protected American households from expensive, high-risk debt. Reviving that policy requires a more comprehensive approach than Hawley's bill now offers. It is a policy worth pursuing. Unrestrained debt poses a fundamental danger not only to the millions of American households struggling to pay their bills, but to the whole American economy. Interest rate caps offer a proven path to get household borrowing under control. Hawley's rate cap is not a novel idea. Interest rate restrictions are a longstanding bipartisan approach to protecting consumer households. Before the 1980s, state-level limits on credit card interest were nearly universal, most at or below the level Hawley has proposed. Interest rate restrictions are not a moralizing or paternalistic policy — biblical exhortations against usury aside — but an economic one. Interest rate caps work by shifting interest rate risk from consumers onto lenders. Banks, for example, borrow money at one price and lend it at another. When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to fight inflation, as it has done in recent months, the cost banks pay to borrow goes up. Without price caps in place, banks simply pass their higher costs to consumers, who are less price sensitive or who have to borrow to make ends meet. In contrast, with rate caps in place, banks hold the risk of rising prices. If the cost of money goes up, so do their costs, which they cannot easily pass on to borrowers. In the past, when state interest rate caps forced banks to hold the interest rate risk, they kept repayment periods short to limit their exposure to interest rate swings. As a result, credit cards offered consumers short term credit, not long-term, high-interest debt. Without rate caps to restrain them, credit cards became the perpetual debt machines we recognize today.

Participation in office loan trips up New Jersey bank - OceanFirst Financial Corp. in Red Bank, New Jersey, said it expects to report increased third-quarter charge-offs linked to its participation in a loan secured by a Manhattan office building. The $13.6 billion-asset OceanFirst stated Thursday in a current events filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that loan losses connected to the Manhattan office credit would total between 45% and 50% of its $17 million total exposure. For the second quarter, the company reported $123,000 of charge-offs. OceantFirst's announcement came just a day after First Horizon Corp. in Memphis, Tennessee, and the Greenville, South Carolina-based United Community Banks revealed they would report substantial third-quarter charge-offs tied to their participation in a $218.5 million loan to an oil distribution company. The $26.1 billion-asset UCBI expects to write off about $19 million, while First Horizon's losses could total $70 million. Office loans are emerging as a particular area of concern for banks, regulators and investors. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. underscored concerns about the office market in its most recent risk review, while several banks have moved to increase reserves or curtail lending to the sector. In its 8-K filing, OceanFirst stated the Manhattan office loan amounts to about 17% of the company's $130 million portfolio of central business district office loans. OceanFirst added it is "continually evaluating" them and "currently is not aware of other material losses within this portfolio." David Bishop, who covers OceanFirst for Hovde, characterized the charge-off as "more a specific borrower related issue rather than a systemic issue with the overall CRE portfolio." Janney Montgomery Scott Analyst Chris Marinac reached a similar conclusion noting Friday in a research note that OceanFirst's overall ratio of criticized loans to loans, at 1.18%, is lower than most peers.

Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in August --From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Performance Remains Strong, but Slowing Improvement Suggests Delinquencies May Be Nearing Cycle Lows

• At 3.17%, the U.S. delinquency rate improved by 4 basis points in August and is nearly a full percentage point below its 2015-2019 same-month average
• However, steady slowing in the annual rate of improvement -- from -40% in early 2022 to -0.8% as of August – suggests delinquency rates may be nearing cycle lows
• Serious delinquencies (90+ days past due) continued to improve, falling 20K from July to 448K – still the lowest level since June 2006 – and down 151K (-25%) year over year
• Early-stage delinquencies, on the other hand, continued to trend upward, with both 30- and 60-day late populations inching up by 2K, marking the third consecutive monthly increase
• The number of loans in active foreclosure declined to 215K – the lowest level since March 2022 following the end of moratoria on such actions – and is down 68K (-24%) from pre-pandemic February 2020
• August’s 31.9K (+21.3% month over month) foreclosure starts – equating to 6.8% of serious delinquencies – were still 21% below August 2019 pre-pandemic levels
• While 6.9K foreclosure sales marked a 13% increase from July, volumes remain at roughly half pre-pandemic levels
• Prepayment activity (SMM) inched up to 0.53% under pressure from seasonal home buying patterns, while interest rates north of 7% continue to hold prepayment speeds at historically low levels

According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 1.2% in August compared to July and decreased 0.8% year-over-year.
Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 3.17% in August, down from 3.21% the previous month.The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased in August to 0.41%, from 0.42% the previous month.The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is up 12,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 14,000 properties year-over-year.

Insurance premiums could surge in these American cities because of climate disasters, new data shows — Millions of American homeowners could see insurance rates surge in the coming years in part due to worsening climate disasters, new data shows. An analysis of from nonprofit research group First Street Foundation found nearly 39 million homes and commercial properties – about 27% of properties in the Lower 48 – are at risk of their premiums spiking as insurers struggle to cover the increasing cost of rebuilding after disasters. It’s another alarming sign for the future of America’s homeowners’ insurance market. In the last few years, major insurers have pulled out of or stopped writing new policies in California, Florida and Louisiana – in part citing increased climate risks like more destructive wildfires and stronger hurricanes. But while insurance prices have already surged in those states, First Street found it’s still growing in other places we think of as less risky.“This is not just isolated to particular areas of the country, but also will impact other areas that we traditionally might not think of,” The insurance industry is only just beginning to price the cost of climate change into its premiums, said Jeremy Porter, the head of climate implications at First Street and one of the report’s lead authors.“We’re still kind of at the forefront of the insurance industry pricing in climate risk into the real estate market,” Porter told CNN. “The insurance companies are going to continue to respond to the increasing climate damages.”For homeowners, this also means fewer choices between companies as private insurers pull out of high-risk areas or restrict coverage.Nearly 7 million properties, almost 1 in 20 buildings, have already experienced price surges or have been dropped by insurance companies, First Street found. The majority of those properties are located either in wildfire and flood-prone California, or hurricane-prone Florida, Louisiana and Texas.But this problem is growing nationwide. Jones pointed to recent extreme flooding that inundated Vermont this summer – dumping up to 9 inches in some parts of the state over two days and submerging the state’s capital of Montpelier. Kentucky and West Virginia have been struck with deadly and costly flooding from massive rainstorms that combined with steep terrain to overwhelm small streams and creeks. Every property in more than 1 in 10 American cities is at risk of premium spikes because of climate disasters, according to an analysis of the First Street data. These include places in states where insurers have already started to pull out, including Miami, Jacksonville and New Orleans. Outside of California, Florida and Louisiana, there are also cities where all properties are vulnerable to sudden price adjustments, mainly along the East Coast where hurricane risk is high and sea level is rising, the data shows – including Atlantic City, New Jersey; Virginia Beach and Norfolk, Virginia; Wilmington, North Carolina; Charleston, South Carolina; and Savannah, Georgia.

Climate risks place 39 million U.S. homes at risk of losing their insurance From California to Florida, homeowners have been facing a new climate reality: Insurance companies don’t want to cover their properties. According to a report released today, the problem will only get worse. The nonprofit climate research firm First Street Foundation found that, while about 6.8 million properties nationwide already rely on expensive public insurance programs, that’s only a fraction of 39 million across the country that face similar conditions. “There’s this climate insurance bubble out there,” said Jeremy Porter, the head of climate implications at First Street and a contributor to the report. “And you can quantify it.” Each state regulates its insurance market, and some limit how much companies can raise rates in a given year. In California, for example, anything more than a 7 percent hike requires a public hearing. According to First Street, such policies have meant premiums don’t always accurately reflect risk, especially as climate change exacerbates natural disasters. This has led companies such as Allstate, State Farm, Nationwide, and others to pull out of areas with a high threat of wildfire, floods, and storms. In the Southern California city of San Bernardino, for example, non-renewals jumped 774 percent between 2015 and 2021. When that happens, homeowners often must enroll in a government-run insurance-of-last-resort program where premiums can cost thousands of dollars more per year. “The report shows that actuarially sound pricing is going to make it unaffordable to live in certain places as climate impacts emerge,” said David Russell, a professor of insurance and finance at California State University Northridge. He did not contribute to the report. “It’s startling and it’s very well documented.” Russell says that what’s most likely to shock people is the economic toll on affected properties. When insurance costs soar, First Street shows, it severely undermines home values — and in some cases erodes them entirely. The report found that insurance for the average California home could nearly quadruple if future risk is factored in, with those extra costs causing a roughly 39 percent drop in value. The situation is even worse in Florida and Louisiana, where flood insurance in Plaquemines Parish near New Orleans could go from $824 annually to $11,296 and a property could effectively become worthless. Grist thanks its sponsors. Become one. “There’s no education to the public of what’s going on and where the risk is,” said Porter, explaining that most insurance models are proprietary. Even the Federal Emergency Management Agency doesn’t make its flood insurance pricing available to the public — homeowners must go through insurance brokers for a quote. First Street is posting its report online, and it also runs riskfactor.com, where anyone can type in an address and receive user-friendly risk information for any property in the U.S. One metric the site provides is annualized damage for flood and wind risk. Porter said that if that number is higher than a homeowner’s current premiums, then a climate risk of some kind probably hasn’t yet been priced into the coverage. “This would indicate that at some point this risk will get priced into their insurance costs,” he said, “and their cost of home ownership would increase along with that.”

Homes in parts of the U.S. are "essentially uninsurable" due to rising climate change risks - Millions of American homeowners like Mary Morse find themselves stuck in a financial bind, facing mounting risks from wildfires and floods linked to climate change while their home insurance rates rocket upwards. Increasingly, the crowning blow comes when insurers withdraw coverage, leaving individuals and even entire communities vulnerable. "I got a letter from my insurance company that said, 'We're not going to serve your area anymore'," Morse, 75, told CBS News about her Pine Cove, California, home. "I even sent [the insurance agent] a picture of my fire hydrant. It didn't help." The growing risk of wildfire means that some parts of California are becoming "essentially 'uninsurable'," according to a new analysis from the First Street Foundation, a non-profit that studies climate risks, shared first with CBS News. The research has alarming implications for homeowners across the U.S., with even residents of inland states such as Kentucky, South Dakota and West Virginia facing sharply higher insurance costs because of increased damage from extreme weather that experts attribute in part to climate change. About 35.6 million properties — one-quarter of all U.S. real estate — face increasing insurance prices and reduced coverage due to high climate risks, the analysis found. The rise in insurance costs isn't merely a hit to homeowners' budgets, however — the higher costs also devalue their properties, First Street said. "You're talking about getting a letter in the mail that says somewhere between 60%, and as high as mid-80%, increases for policies," First Street CEO Matthew Eby said. "That is crippling. Absolutely crippling. And so those homes are not, from an investment scenario, something that you would invest in." Pine Cove, located in Riverside County, California, just over 100 miles southeast of Los Angeles, ranks as one of the 10 worst zip codes for insurance non-renewals in the U.S, according to First Street. The firm also found that Riverside County is most at risk to losing homes and other properties due to wildfires each year.

Rate "lock-in" effect is hurting housing and mortgage markets, Powell says — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the so-called "lock-in" effect has contributed to stagnation in the mortgage lending market and the nation's broader housing woes, but he said he doesn't regret the central bank's monetary policy moves that played a major role in the problem.By some estimates, more than 90% of homeowners have locked in mortgage rates below 6%, with many paying less than 4% on loans made while the Fed held interest rates near zero. The disparity between those rates and current market rates, currently north of 7%, is discouraging some homeowners from selling their properties out of a fear of taking on a more expensive mortgage to purchase their next home. Powell said that dynamic is "one of the explanations for what's happening broadly in the [housing] market," but it likely would not make the Federal Open Market Committee think twice about bringing interest rates to their lower bound again, should economic conditions warrant such a move."Would that play a role in our decision-making … in a future loosening cycle about whether we would cut rates? No, I don't think it would," Powell said. "I think we'd be looking at what, fundamentally, what rates does the economy need. And you know, in an emergency like the pandemic or the global financial crisis, you have to cut rates to the point, you have to do what you can to support the economy. So, I wouldn't think that that would be a reason for us not to do that."He also noted that housing supply is "structurally constrained," creating long-term affordability issues for purchasers and renters alike. Still, Powell said he expects to see positive developments in housing inflation as new asking rents are conveyed into leases. "In terms of where inflation is going in the near term … a lot of it is leases that are running off and then being resigned or released at a level that's not that much higher," he said. "A year ago it would have been much higher than a year before. … As those leases are rolling over, we're seeing what we expect, which is measured housing services inflation coming down."

"Mortgage Rates Jump up to 23-Year Highs" From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump up to 23-Year Highs Between the data and the overnight momentum in overseas markets, bonds are at their weakest levels in years. Mortgage-backed securities (the bonds that dictate mortgage rates) didn't swoon quite as much as Treasuries, but as of today, it was just enough to push the average mortgage lender almost perfectly back in line with the highest 30yr fixed rate of the past 23 years. [30 year fixed 7.47%]

Homebuyers cancel purchases at highest rate in 10 months | National Mortgage News - Home purchases across the U.S. are getting canceled at the highest rate in almost a year as rising borrowing costs weigh on buyers. Nearly 60,000 deals to purchase homes fell through in August, according to a report released Friday by Redfin Corp. That's equal to roughly 16% of homes that went under contract last month, the biggest share of cancellations since October.More buyers and sellers scrapped deals last month as mortgage rates topped 7% for the first time since November. The average for a 30-year, fixed loan has hovered above that point for the past five weeks, data from Freddie Mac show."I've seen more homebuyers cancel deals in the last six months than I've seen at any point during my 24 years of working in real estate," Jaime Moore, a Redfin agent, said in the report. "They're getting cold feet."Despite sluggish sales, prices have continued to rise because buyers in the market are competing for a limited number of homes, Redfin said. The median price climbed 3% in August from a year earlier to $420,846."As long as rates remain high, homeowners will be reluctant to sell," said Chen Zhao, Redfin economics research lead. "That lack of homes for sale will keep prices high because it means buyers are duking it out for a limited supply of houses."

Homes were overvalued in 82% of U.S. metro areas in 1Q: Fitch | National Mortgage News --Houses were overvalued in 82% of U.S. metropolitan statistical areas in the first quarter, but that is actually down from 88% for the prior period, a Fitch Ratings analysis found.Almost half, 49%, were overvalued by 10% or more, according to Fitch's Sustainable House Price model, which has been temporarily revised to account for current market dynamics.In the fourth quarter, 52% of MSAs were overvalued by 10% or more.Still, nationwide, overvaluation is starting to flatten out, said Sean Park, a director at Fitch. In the first quarter, on a population-weighted average basis, home prices were overvalued by 7.6%."But the ongoing rebound in quarter-over-quarter home prices is expected to lead to only a continued moderation in overvaluation," Park said.High prices are affecting younger generations who are thinking about the possibility of home ownership, a Redfin study previously discussed.However, data from later in 2023 presents a mixed bag as to whether valuations are likely to soften. The CoreLogic Home Price Index rose 2.5% annually in July, after two consecutive months of 1.6% gains. It increased by 0.4% compared with June. "Annual home price growth regained momentum in July, which mostly reflects strong appreciation from earlier this year," said Selma Hepp, CoreLogic chief economist in a press release. "Nevertheless, the projection of prolonged higher mortgage rates has dampened price forecasts over the next year, particularly in less-affordable markets." According to the Fitch data, properties in only two of the 50 largest MSAs were undervalued in the first quarter: Detroit and Las Vegas. Another 11 markets were described as having sustainable prices.Nationwide, 33 MSAs are undervalued, while in 80 more, homes have sustainable valuations. But 82 are overvalued by 5% to 9%, 90 between 10% and 14%, 55 between 15% and 19%, 34 between 20% and 24% and 7 between 25% and 29%.

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 4.4% YoY; New Listings Down 6.0% YoY --Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Sabrina Speianu:Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Sep 16, 2023Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 4.4%.During the past week, we observed the 13th successive drop in the number of homes available for sale when compared to the previous year. This decline showed a slight improvement compared to the previous week’s -5.1% figure.New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 6.0% from one year ago.Over the past 63 weeks, we’ve consistently seen a decline in the number of newly listed homes compared to the same period one year ago. However, this gap in new listings has been gradually narrowing over the past few weeks. This shift comes as the market recovers from more significant declines experienced last year, which were triggered by the steady increase in mortgage rates affecting the real estate landscape.In the most recent week, the decrease in newly listed homes was 6.0% compared to the previous year, showing improvement from the 7.1% decline in the week prior.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according torealtor.com. Inventory was down 4.4% year-over-year - this was the thirteenth consecutive week with a YoY decrease following 58 consecutive weeks with a YoY increase in inventory. Inventory is still up from the record lows in the 2nd half of 2021 and early 2022, and it is unlikely we will see new record lows by this measure this year.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.04 million SAAR in August - From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 0.7% in August Existing-home sales moved lower in August, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales improved in the Midwest, were unchanged in the Northeast, and slipped in the South and West. All four regions recorded year-over-year sales declines. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – slid 0.7% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.04 million in August. Year-over-year, sales fell 15.3% (down from 4.77 million in August 2022). ... Total housing inventory registered at the end of August was 1.1 million units, down 0.9% from July and 14.1% from one year ago (1.28 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace, identical to July and up from 3.2 months in August 2022. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994. Sales in August (4.04 million SAAR) were down 0.7% from the previous month and were 15.3% below the August 2022 sales rate.The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.10 million in August down from 1.11 million in June. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was down 14.1% year-over-year (blue) in August compared to August 2022. Months of supply (red) was unchanged at 3.3 months in August from 3.3 months in July. This was below the consensus forecast.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.04 million SAAR in August; Median Prices Increased 3.9% YoY in August --Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.04 million SAAR in August; Median Prices Increased 3.9% YoY in August Excerpt: Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2022 and 2023.Sales declined 15.3% year-over-year compared to August 2022. This was the twenty-fourth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year. Since sales were declining all year in 2022, the year-over-year declines are getting smaller - even as sales declined over the last 6 months.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.283 million Annual Rate in August -- From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions --Privately‐owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,283,000. This is 11.3 percent below the revised July estimate of 1,447,000 and is 14.8 percent below the August 2022 rate of 1,505,000. Single‐family housing starts in August were at a rate of 941,000; this is 4.3 percent below the revised July figure of 983,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 334,000. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,543,000. This is 6.9 percent above the revised July rate of 1,443,000, but is 2.7 percent below the August 2022 rate of 1,586,000. Single‐family authorizations in August were at a rate of 949,000; this is 2.0 percent above the revised July figure of 930,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 535,000 in August.The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000. Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased in August compared to July. Multi-family starts were down 41.6% year-over-year in August. Single-family starts (red) decreased in August and were up 2.4% year-over-year. The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse in single-family starts. Total housing starts in August were well below expectations, however, starts in June and July were revised up, combined.

August Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction - The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble).Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased in August compared to July. Multi-family starts were down 41.6% year-over-year in August. Single-family starts (red) decreased in August and were up 2.4% year-over-year.Note that the weakness in 2022 and early 2023 had been in single family starts (red), however the weakness is moving to multi-family now while single family has bounced back somewhat from the bottom.The second graph shows single and multi-family starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse in single-family starts.Total housing starts in August were well below expectations, however, starts in June and July were revised up, combined.The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2022 (blue) and 2023 (red).Total starts were down 14.8% in August compared to August 2022. And starts year-to-date are down 12.5% compared to last year.Starts have been down year-over-year for 14 of the last 16 months (May and July 2023 were the exceptions), and I expect total starts to be down this year - although the year-over-year comparisons will be easier the rest of the year.Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased in September - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 45, down from 50 last month. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: High Mortgage Rates Continue to Weaken Builder Confidence: Persistently high mortgage rates above 7% continue to erode builder confidence, as sentiment levels have dropped below the key break-even measure of 50 for the first time in five months. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in September fell five points to 45, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This follows a six-point drop in August. “The two-month decline in builder sentiment coincides with when mortgage rates jumped above 7% and significantly eroded buyer purchasing power,” “And on the supply-side front, builders continue to grapple with shortages of construction workers, buildable lots and distribution transformers, which is further adding to housing affordability woes. Insurance cost and availability is also a growing concern for the housing sector.” “High mortgage rates are clearly taking a toll on builder confidence and consumer demand, as a growing number of buyers are electing to defer a home purchase until long-term rates move lower,” “Putting into place policies that will allow builders to increase the housing supply is the best remedy to ease the nation’s housing affordability crisis and curb shelter inflation. Shelter inflation posted a 7.3% year-over-year gain in August, compared to an overall 3.7% consumer inflation reading.” As mortgage rates stayed above 7% over the last month, more builders are reducing home prices again to bolster sales. In September, 32% of builders reported cutting home prices, compared to 25% in August. That’s the largest share of builders cutting prices since December 2022 (35%). The average price discount remains at 6%. Meanwhile, 59% of builders provided sales incentives of all forms in September, more than any month since April 2023. While more pricing-out is now occurring, the lack of resale inventory at the start of 2023 has shifted the new construction buyer mix. ... All three major HMI indices posted declines in September. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell six points to 51, the component charting sales expectations in the next six months also declined six points to 49 and the gauge measuring traffic of prospective buyers dropped five points to 30. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell two points to 54, the Midwest dropped three points to 42, the South fell four points to 54 the West posted a three-point decline to 47.. This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985. This was below the consensus forecast.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.2% Year-over-year --: U.S. hotel results for week ending 16 September: U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, according to CoStar’s latest data through 16 September. ...
10-16 September 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2022):
• Occupancy: 67.7% (-2.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$161.15 (+2.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$109.07 (+0.1%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
The red line is for 2023, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2022. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking just below last year, and slightly above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2022 (Blue).

September Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.4 million SAAR, Up Sharply YoY = From WardsAuto: September U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Strong Year-Over-Year Gain Despite Strike Impact (pay content). Brief excerpt:The possibility in September that other automakers will benefit much from buyers defecting from the Detroit 3 brands is negligible. The vehicles currently impacted by shutdowns either are products with high brand loyalty, in segments dominated by the three strike-impacted manufacturers or have plenty of inventory.This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for September (Red).On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 15.4 million SAAR, would be up 2% from last month, and up 13% from a year ago.Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing. This time vehicle sales were more suppressed by supply chain issues and have picked up recently.

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 40 States in August (3-Month Basis) From the Philly Fed:The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for August 2023. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 40 states, decreased in eight states, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 64. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 30 states, decreased in 13 states, and remained stable in seven, for a one-month diffusion index of 34. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 0.6 percent over the past three months and 0.1 percent in August. Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.Here is a map of the three-month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the Pandemic and also at the worst of the Great Recession.The map is mostly positive on a three-month basis.And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).In August, 33 states had increasing activity including minor increases.

Amazon plans to hire 250,000 workers for holiday season. Target says it will add nearly 100,000 — Amazon said on Tuesday that it will hire 250,000 full- and part-time workers for the holiday season, a 67% jump compared to last year.Target announced separately it will add nearly 100,000 seasonal roles during the holidays, the same number as it did last year. The announcement from the two companies follows news from Macy’s Inc. on Monday that it will add more than 38,000 full- and part-time seasonal employees at its Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury stores across the country. That’s a slight decline from the 41,000 the company planned to onboard in 2022. Amazon noted more jobs are available because the company has opened over 50 new fulfillment centers, delivery stations and same-day delivery sites in the U.S. this year. The e-commerce giant also wrote in a blog post that it will invest $1.3 billion this year toward pay hikes for warehouse and transportation employees, raising the average pay for those roles from $19 to over $20.50 per hour.To capture the eyes of consumers, retailers like Amazon and Target have been offering holiday deals as early as October in the past few years and are doing the same this year.Consumer spending has been volatile this year after surging nearly 3% in January. Sales tumbled in February and March before recovering in the spring and summer. The Commerce Department said last week retail sales rose 0.6% in August, driven in part by a big rise in gas prices

UAW justifies wage demands by pointing to CEO pay raises. So how high were they? (AP) — It’s been a central argument for the United Auto Workers union: If Detroit’s three automakers raised CEO pay by 40% over the past four years, workers should get similar raises. UAW President Shawn Fain has repeatedly cited the figure, contrasting it with the 6% pay raises autoworkers have received since their last contract in 2019. He opened negotiations with a demand for a similar 40% wage increase over four years, along with the return of pensions and cost of living increases. The UAW has since lowered its demand to a 36% wage increase but the two sides remain far apart in contract talks, triggering a strike. Fain’s focus on CEO pay is part of a growing trend of emboldened labor unions citing the wealth gap between workers and the top bosses to bolster demand for better pay and working conditions. In June, Netflix shareholders rejected executive pay packages in a nonbinding vote, just days after the Writers Guild of America wrote letters urging investors to vote against the pay proposals, saying it would be inappropriate amid Hollywood’s ongoing strike by writers. The WGA wrote similar letters targeting the executive pay at Comcast and NBCUniversal.Fain has pushed back against arguments that a big pay bump for the union would jack up costs of vehicles and put the Big Three automakers — General Motors, Ford and Stellantis (formerly Chrysler) — at a disadvantage against foreign competitors with lower-cost workforces in the race to transition to electric vehicles.“The reason we ask for 40% pay increases is because in the last four years alone, the CEO pay went up 40%. They’re already millionaires,” Fain told CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday. “Our demands are just. We’re asking for our fair share in this economy and the fruits of our labor.”CEO pay has ballooned for decades, while wages for ordinary workers have lagged. But did the Big Three chief executives really get 40% pay increases? Not exactly.“I don’t know where the 40% came from,” said General Motors CEO Mary Barra at a new conference when asked if the UAW’s numbers were accurate.Executive pay is notoriously complicated to calculate because so much of it comes in the form of stock grants or stock options. A detailed look at the compensation packages at all three companies shows how the UAW’s claim both overstates and understates reality, depending on the view.

UAW threaten to expand targeted strike if no progress by Friday -The United Auto Workers union is stepping up pressure on Detroit’s Big Three by threatening to expand its strike unless it sees major progress in contract negotiations by Friday. In a video statement late Monday, UAW President Shawn Fain said workers at more factories will join those who are now in the fifth day of a strike at three plants. “We’re not going to keep waiting around forever while they drag this out ... and we’re not messing around,” Fain said in announcing the noon Eastern time Friday deadline for escalating the strike unless there is “serious progress” in the talks. Ford, General Motors and Stellantis said they want to settle the strike, and they held back from directly criticizing the escalation threat. Mark Stewart, the North American chief operating officer of Stellantis, the successor to Fiat Chrysler, said the company is still looking for common ground with the UAW. “I hope that we’re able to do that by Friday,” Stewart said on CNBC. GM said in a statement, “We’re continuing to bargain in good faith with the union to reach an agreement as quickly as possible for the benefit of our team members, customers, suppliers and communities across the U.S.”

Kaiser workers vote overwhelmingly to strike, warn of a new influx of COVID-19 patients -- Workers at Kaiser Permanente have voted by upwards of 98 percent to authorize strike action in an overwhelming expression of determination by workers to fight for safe staffing and fair wages amidst rising inflation and the continued spread of new COVID-19 variants. The results were announced Thursday by the Coalition of Kaiser Permanente Unions (CKPU), with just two weeks until the contract for 85,000 Kaiser workers expires on September 30. The CKPU encompasses four different unions—the largest being the SEIU-UHW (60,000 workers) and the SEIU (12,000 workers)—and spans seven US states and the District of Columbia, staffing 39 hospitals and 600 medical offices. Workers in the coalition represent a wide range of occupations within the hospitals, including lab techs, custodial staff, nurse assistants, nurses, secretaries and more. Voting is still in process in several locations, including at Kaiser facilities in Baltimore and Virginia. World Socialist Web Site reporters spoke to workers outside Kaiser Permanente Panorama City near Los Angeles. Juan, an Emergency Services Tech with 15 years of experience in healthcare, told the WSWS about conditions that have driven workers to vote for a strike, stating, “I would like to see the Kaiser executives come down and do what we do. I want the Kaiser executives to know that we put our blood, sweat and tears into taking care of the patients… “They stay in their offices, air-conditioned buildings, and they don’t have any idea what it’s like to have an ER lobby filled with 15 to 25 patients. Everyone’s looking at you, they’re frustrated and in pain while we are short-staffed, working with crazy workloads and being stretched very thin. They are able to get bonuses. They are able to live this lavish lifestyle. But God forbid, if we come one minute late, that is a write-up.” Juan also spoke about the high rates of burnout suffered by him and his coworkers, which were greatly exacerbated by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. “We weren’t really ready for a pandemic. We didn’t have N95s. We didn’t have enough surgical masks. We didn’t have certain items that we needed in order to protect ourselves to take care of the patients. A lot of us got COVID. A lot of us got really sick. Some of us had family members that died because we brought COVID home. Did we get reimbursed for that? No. We lost loved ones.” While workers are ready and eager to fight, the SEIU-UHW bureaucracy is already preparing a betrayal behind their backs. In a five-paragraph letter featured on the front page of the SEIU-UHW website, the union leadership specified four times that any strike they call would be an “unfair labor practice” (ULP) strike, which could be called off once Kaiser administrators supposedly resume “good faith” negotiations.

Google accused of negligence after man drives car off collapsed bridge, dies - A North Carolina woman sued Google for negligence Tuesday after her husband drove off a collapsed bridge and died while following directions from Google Maps. Alicia Paxson’s husband, Philip Paxson, drove off Snow Creek Bridge in Hickory, N.C., last September, as he returned home from their daughter’s birthday party. The bridge had collapsed nine years earlier but was never repaired or barricaded, according to the lawsuit. Google Maps allegedly continued to direct drivers to cross the collapsed bridge, despite being notified by Hickory residents that it was no longer passable and presented a danger to drivers. “Mr. Paxson was completely unaware that the Snow Creek Bridge collapsed in 2013, just like others who narrowly escaped the same fate,” Larry Bendesky, one of Alicia Paxson’s attorneys, said in a statement. “Like so many motorists, Philip put his trust in Google Maps to safely guide him home from the children’s birthday party,” Bendesky continued. “His trust in Google Maps, and the failure of the road and bridge-keepers to do their jobs, cost him his life.” Google Maps still showed the bridge as passable as recently as this April, more than six months after Paxson’s death, the lawsuit alleges. His widow is suing Google and its parent company Alphabet, as well as the individuals responsible for the upkeep of Snow Creek Bridge. “Our girls ask how and why their daddy died, and I’m at a loss for words they can understand because, as an adult, I still can’t understand how those responsible for the GPS directions, and the bridge, could have acted with so little regard for human life,” she said in a statement.

Michigan attorney general blames Gov. Whitmer kidnap trial acquittals on 'right-leaning' jurors (AP) — Michigan’s attorney general suggested conservative politics played a role in theacquittal of three men in the final trial related to a plan to kidnap Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.Dana Nessel, also a Democrat, told a liberal group Monday the trial was held in a “very right-leaning county.”She said Friday’s verdicts were “perplexing, confusing but terrifying.” The Detroit News obtained a video of Nessel’s remarks to a group called Protectors of Equality in Government.It is uncommon for a prosecutor, or even a defense lawyer, to publicly question a jury’s motivation. Unlike Nessel, the U.S. Justice Department did not blame two federal acquittals last year in the same investigation on ideology.William Null, twin brother Michael Null and Eric Molitor were found not guilty of providing material support for a terrorist act and a weapon charge. They were the last of 14 men to face charges in state or federal court. Nine were convicted and a total of five were cleared. In cases that went to trial, state and federal prosecutors won only five of 10 verdicts.

US surpasses 500 mass shootings in 2023: Gun Violence Archive -- The United States’s 500th mass shooting of 2023 occurred over the weekend, according to data from the Gun Violence Archive.As of Sunday, the Gun Violence Archive reported 501 mass shootings so far in 2023, after a Saturday night shooting in Denver marked the 500th mass shooting of the year. According to the Denver Police Department, the shooting sent four people to the hospital, and a fifth victim was later discovered. All of the individuals are expected to survive, and no arrests were made as of Sunday morning, police said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. Another shooting was later reported in El Paso, Texas, around 1 a.m. Sunday, killing a 19-year-old man and injuring five others, local television station KTSM reported. One of the wounded individuals was in critical condition, according to KTSM. A January shooting in Monterey Park, Calif., marked this year’s deadliest shooting, when a total of 11 people were killed and 10 others were injured at a dance studio following a Lunar New Year celebration. Data from the Gun Violence Archive — which logs mass shootings in cases where there are four or more individuals wounded or killed in a shooting — found the total number of mass shootings in 2023 is so far lower than totals from the past three years, but already higher than in 2019, which had 414 mass shootings, and in 2018, which had 335 mass shootings. 2021 had the highest-ever number of mass shootings in the U.S., with 689 reported mass shootings, the Gun Violence Archive’s data shows. The number of mass shootings fell in 2022 to 645, although FBI data showed a rise in the total number of Americans wounded in such events between 2021 and 2022.The FBI defines a mass shooting as “one or more individuals actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a populated area,” a definition that varies from other metrics that focus on the number of total victims in evaluating a shooting.Even with last year’s drop, FBI officials said the past two decades have seen an overall rise in the number of mass shootings, regardless of the criteria used to make the assessment.

Families upended by school shootings share trauma in push for gun law changes, but get mixed results (AP) — For nearly a week, families whose lives were upended by a Nashville elementary school shooting took turns sharing dark details to Tennessee lawmakers. Their children thought they were going to die. A teacher told students to race each other, knowing they needed to get some place safe quickly to avoid the spray of bullets. Children died after fire alarm evacuation protocols led one class to collide with the shooter in a hallway. The parents who testified spilled their own stories, but also carried the weight of representing and speaking for the six people — including three children — who were killed by a shooter on March 27 inside The Covenant School. They hoped that doing so during a brief special session in August would compel lawmakers to pass meaningful legislation. “To me, that was the most nerve-wracking piece,” said Melissa Alexander, whose child attends Covenant. “Trying to tell someone else’s story in the most perfect way, it’s not easy.” But inside the Republican-led General Assembly, many lawmakers had already dismissed the gun control change as an option and resisted passing any significant changes this year, punting the issue to the next regular session starting in January. They argued that their constituents are protective of the Second Amendment and that taking away guns even temporarily is likely to infringe on people’s rights. It’s an all-too-common scene across the United States. Throughout the corridors of many state Capitols, families are sharing emotionally gutting stories of tragedy caused by mass school shootings with the hope that revealing their trauma will convince lawmakers from either party to reconsider firearm policies.

A Black student was suspended for his hairstyle. The school says it wasn't discrimination (AP) — A Black high school student in Texas has served more than two weeks of in-school suspensions for wearing twisted dreadlocks to school. When he arrived Monday with the same hairstyle, he was suspended again, his mother said.Darryl George, a junior at Barbers Hill High School in Mont Belvieu, was initially suspended the same week his state outlawed racial discrimination based on hairstyles. School officials said his dreadlocks fell below his eyebrows and ear lobes and violated the district’s dress code.George, 17, has been suspended since Aug. 31 at the Houston-area school. He was in tears when he was suspended Monday despite his family’s arguments that his hair does not violate the dress code, his mother Darresha George said.“He has to sit on a stool for eight hours in a cubicle,” she said. “That’s very uncomfortable. Every day he’d come home, he’d say his back hurts because he has to sit on a stool.”The incident recalls debates over hair discrimination in schools and the workplace and is already testing the state’s newly enacted CROWN Act, which took effect Sept. 1.The law, an acronym for “Create a Respectful and Open World for Natural Hair,” is intended to prohibit race-based hair discrimination and bars employers and schools from penalizing people because of hair texture or protective hairstyles including Afros, braids, dreadlocks, twists or Bantu knots. Texas is one of 24 states that have enacted a version of the CROWN Act.A federal version of the CROWN Act passed in the House of Representatives last year, but was not successful in the Senate.For Black people, hairstyles are more than just a fashion statement. Hair has always played an important role across the Black diaspora, said Candice Matthews, national minister of politics for the New Black Panther Nation. (Her group is not affiliated with another New Black Panther organization widely considered antisemitic.)“Dreadlocks are perceived as a connection to wisdom,” Matthews said. “This is not a fad, and this is not about getting attention. Hair is our connection to our soul, our heritage and our connection to God.”In George’s family, all the men have dreadlocks, going back generations. To them, the hairstyle has cultural and religious importance, his mother said.

Maryland officials announce $120M for K-12 behavioral health services (AP) — Maryland officials on Tuesday highlighted the availability of $120 million in grants for behavioral and mental health services to help K-12 students over the next year and a half.Senate President Bill Ferguson, a Baltimore Democrat, described the funding as a historic investment that is critical to the state’s 900,000 school children at a time when kids are facing the stresses of the COVID-19 pandemic’s effect on learning and socialization.“We can’t just put it all on teachers. We can’t just put it all on principals,” said Ferguson, a former high school teacher. “We need the supports that are in the community to come into the school buildings and work in partnership to really provide the level of engagement and support that kids need to be their best selves.”Ferguson made the announcement with Laura Herrera Scott, the state’s health secretary, and members of the Consortium on Coordinated Community Supports, a 25-member panel that has been working on developing a statewide framework to expand access to services for students.

Willoughby-Eastlake Public Library holding Banned Book Reading Challenge - Sep. 21—Willoughby-Eastlake Public Library kicks off Banned Books Week Oct. 1 with its Banned Book Reading Challenge. Patrons who read five challenged and/or banned books from Oct. 1 through Nov. 1 will win a prize, according to a news release. Everyone who completes the challenge will then enter to win a grand prize. A list of challenged adult, young adult, and juvenile books will be available on the library's website. Visit we247.org and register at Beanstack. The nationwide effort is from the American Library Association's Office for Intellectual Freedom, the Banned Books Week Coalition and libraries across the country, the release stated. This year's theme is Let Freedom Read.

Back to School: The Least and Most Educated States in the US - WalletHub is known for its studies on everything from the best consumer credit cards or the voter turnout in each state to the best cities in the US for vegetarians. And each year, the publication releases its rankings on the least and most educated states in the country. WalletHub takes 18 factors into consideration to come up with the scores, checking each state for things like school safety, test scores, and any gaps in educational attainment. Read below to see a selection of the rankings and see which states earned top marks and which states need to do some extra homework.

Teenage brain development study helps predict drinking behavior - Mapping out brain networks in teens can help predict current and future risky drinking behavior, according to Sarah Yip, Ph.D., associate professor of psychiatry and in the Yale Child Study Center.Teenage brains are furiously forming new connections during adolescence. Two of the systems that are rewired during this time are networks related to reward and inhibition—systems that tend to develop differently in males and females.In a study published in JAMA Psychiatry, Yip and her colleagues sorted through a massive MRI dataset of teenage brains to see if they could predict drinking behavior in adolescents by looking at how these two systems rewire during development.The study revealed that the way inhibitory and reward pathways—which broadly regulate "brake" and "go" behavior—develop can help forecast how likely those teens are to drink heavily in the years to come.Specifically, the study revealed that the way the brain responded during performance of inhibitory and reward tasks could predict how likely teens were to engage in risky drinking in the future. But while data from both tasks could predict alcohol use in girls, only the inhibitory task data were helpful in predicting behavior in boys. Taking a closer look at these systems could help researchers develop new therapies for alcohol use, says Yip.

Board of Governors approves draconian attack on education at West Virginia University against mass opposition - On Friday, the West Virginia University Board of Governors voted to approve draconian cuts to foreign languages and other programs at the university. The cuts first introduced by WVU President Gordon Gee will eliminate 169 full-time faculty positions, or 7 percent of the entire faculty, and 32 programs, or 9 percent of academic majors. At the Board of Governors meeting Friday, students who had come to protest the cuts were forcibly removed from the meeting by campus security. West Virginia University is the only R1 level research facility in the state, one of the poorest in the country. The cuts are directed primarily at liberal arts and humanities programs. Among those programs slashed, along with their respective instructors, are the Department of World Languages, Literature, and Linguistics. Instruction in Russian, French, German and many other languages will be eliminated. Only Spanish and Mandarin will be taught. Other programs that are being cut include: Creative Writing, Doctor of Music Arts in Composition, Master’s of Music in Composition, Master’s in Jazz Pedagogy, Master’s in Higher Education Administration and Bachelor’s in Environmental and Community Planning. In all, 32 of 338 total academic majors offered at WVU are being eliminated. Of those 32, 12 are undergraduate programs, and 20 are graduate programs. The vote by the Board of Governors to approve the cuts came despite almost unanimous opposition from the student body and faculty, and marks a new stage in the assault on public education and the right to culture by the working class in the US and internationally. The week prior, a meeting of the faculty assembly voted by an 8-to-1 margin to call for a freeze in the cuts and voted by the same margin a vote of no confidence in President Gee. At a packed public hearing on Thursday, West Virginia students, faculty and alumni spoke out against the massive cuts. Billed as a public hearing called by the Board of Governors (BOG) to inform them of their vote, it was clear that its decision had already been made. The hearing itself was held in such a way as to limit as much as possible the input from students, staff and faculty. The day and time was chosen when most students and faculty were in class and the administration refused the request to suspend classes during the time to allow the community to take part. Scheduled to start at 10:30 a.m., the BOG first went into executive session for an hour, not opening the floor to speakers until 11:30 a.m. As its first order of business, the BOG limited speakers to just two minutes instead of the previously announced three, forcing most speakers to hastily cut their remarks. During the nearly three-hour meeting, not a single speaker spoke in favor of the cuts or in support of the Board of Governors and administration. One after another students and faculty protested the cuts and pleaded with university President Gee to change course and reconsider carrying out the sweeping attack on education.

16 states underfunded historically Black land-grant universities, Biden administration says -(AP) — Historically Black land-grant universities in Tennessee and 15 other states have missed out on $12.6 billion in funding over the last three decades, according to the Biden administration. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona and Secretary of Agriculture Thomas Vilsack sent letters to the governors of each state asking them to increase funding, news outlets reported. The letter said the largest disparity was in Tennessee, where Tennessee State University has been underfunded by $2.1 billion dollars. “Unacceptable funding inequities have forced many of our nation’s distinguished historically Black colleges and universities to operate with inadequate resources and delay critical investments in everything from campus infrastructure to research and development to student support services,” Cardona said in a statement Monday. Letters were also sent to governors of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia. The nation’s land-grant universities were founded in the 19th century on federal land to further agricultural instruction and research. Federal law requires states to provide an equitable distribution of state funding for all land-grant universities, but that hasn’t happened with many historically Black ones, a new analysis found. The federal agencies used data from the National Center for Education Statistics and found the funding disparity in 16 of 18 states that house Black land grants. Delaware and Ohio provided equitable funding, the analysis found.

BankThink: Colleges should be on the hook when graduates default on student loans | American Banker -- Picture yourself in charge of a college or university where you are competing with other universities for the best students and teachers. There is a national ranking system that everybody (students, faculty, alumni and the board of directors that hired you) pays a lot of attention to — and it will rank your university higher if you spend more money. Spending more also helps you build nicer buildings and better programs to compete for the best students and faculty. The government will give as much money to your students as they need to pay for college. And the best part is, if those students don't pay the loans back, your university doesn't lose one cent — the taxpayers have you covered! What does this system incentivize? Spending more, building more, raising tuition more. That is, until the system breaks. On September 1, many Americans began to face a dim financial reality. After an extended moratorium on federal student loan payments, including attempts at debt forgiveness by the Biden administration, consumers are once again obligated to repay their student loans. For many, this debt totals tens of thousands of dollars, with repayment resuming at a time of higher interest rates as well as higher costs on goods and services. The administration's latest moves to help borrowers through the income based "SAVE plan" is nothing more than a bandage (as were the forbearance policies on student loans during the pandemic), which does nothing to address the root cause of the crisis. The root of the problem is that the lending decisions on most student loans do not include any assessment of the risks of nonpayment. Underwriting is run by the government, and credit decisions are often divorced from reality, with some loan types requiring no credit check at all and others requiring a parent co-signer, rather than an assessment of the student's ability to repay. Combine that with the fact that the student being saddled with this debt — and significant financial responsibility — is entering college as a teenager, with limited to no education in financial literacy. Universities receive the money, and it is U.S. taxpayers who bear the risk when these loans are not repaid. We learned from the Great Recession 15 years ago the catastrophic effects of a system in which lending decision-makers don't bear the risk of nonpayment. The endless flow of cash, subsidized by taxpayers, means that universities have no incentive to control costs or assess the ability of their students to repay the debt. As a result, tuition and fees continue to far outpace inflation. Skyrocketing prices have another perverse benefit — increasing a university's ranking — as some, including U.S. News and World Report, factor in spending per student in their ranking systems.

Newer diabetes treatments are understudied in Black populations and may be less beneficial -New research analyzing the effects of two drugs used to treat type 2 diabetes indicates a consistent lack of cardiovascular and renal benefits in Black populations. Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of severe illness and death associated with type 2 diabetes. Renal disease is also a common complication of type 2 diabetes.The drugs, called sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2-Is) and glucogen-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RAs), are some of the newer treatments prescribed to lower blood sugar levels in people with type 2 diabetes. The research findings, published in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, show that for white and Asian populations, SGLT2-Is and GLP1-RAs have beneficial effects on blood pressure, weight control and renal function, and significantly reduce the risk of severe heart problems and kidney disease. However, the research shows no evidence of these beneficial effects in Black populations.Researchers at the Diabetes Research Centre at the University of Leicester analyzed the results of 14 randomized controlled trials of SGLT2-Is and GLP1-RAs reporting cardiovascular and renal outcomes by race, ethnicity and region.Lead researcher Professor Samuel Seidu, Professor in Primary Care Diabetes and Cardio-metabolic Medicine at the University of Leicester, said, "Given the well-documented evidence that Black and other ethnic minority populations are more likely to develop type 2 diabetes and at a younger age, the consistent lack of benefits we observed among Black populations is concerning."Minimizing racial and ethnic variations in the cardiovascular and renal complications of type 2 diabetes requires targeted improved access to care and treatment for those most at risk."The researchers suggest there are many factors that could have contributed to the lack of evidence of beneficial effects for Black and other non-white populations. Low statistical power due to small sample sizes of these populations may be partly responsible."It is quite clear from the current data that some racial/ethnic groups such as Black populations were underrepresented in all the included trials," pointed out Professor Seidu.

Wastewater shows COVID levels dipping as hospitalizations tick up --New data collected from wastewater samples indicates that detected COVID-19 levels are decreasing nationwide, while cases and hospitalizations continue to tick up.The levels of COVID detected in wastewater samples dropped by about 5 percent nationwide in the last week, according to data from Biobot Analytics, a platform that tracks COVID through wastewater. Data from wastewater can provide early warnings of the spread of COVID cases across regions.Though wastewater collection sites in the West, Midwest and Northeast show a steady uptick in levels of COVID detected, wastewater samples in the South show enough of a decrease to tip the overall national detected levels in a downward trajectory for the last week.However, wastewater data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows virus levels increasing at more sites reporting data within the last week, though the CDC indicates that data collected since the beginning of the month may be subject to reporting delays.In addition, positive cases and COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths are still continuing to rise through the end of summer and into the beginning of fall, according to data from the CDC.

Study finds increase in anxiety and depression for people whose family member or close friend contracts COVID-19 - Family members and close friends of people with COVID-19 have elevated symptoms of depression and anxiety, a study from Karolinska Institutet published in The Lancet Regional Health—Europe reports. According to the researchers, the results of the study indicate a possible unmet public health need. "On 5 May 2023, the UN declared the COVID pandemic over, but its effects on public health persist," says Dr. Anikó Lovik, postdoc researcher at the Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet.Dr. Lovik and her colleagues have examined how the pandemic affected the mental health of people who had a close relationship with someone who contracted COVID-19. Data was gathered from more than 160,000 adult volunteers who replied to online surveys over 22 months of the pandemic. The participants were based in four countries: Sweden, Iceland, Norway and the United Kingdom."The study shows that people who had a family member or close friend with a COVID-19 diagnosis were more prone to reporting symptoms of depression and anxiety than people who did not have a close friend or relative with COVID-19," says Dr. Lovik.The proportion of people reporting significant symptoms of anxiety and depression was between 7% and 8% higher in those who had a COVID patient among their close family or friends compared with those who did not, the study found."But if the sick family member needed to be hospitalized, the study participants experienced symptoms of depression and anxiety more often," says Dr. Lovik. "For instance, people with a friend of relative who had to be taken into intensive care reported anxiety symptoms 45% more often."The Swedish cohort had participated in KI's "Omtanke2020" COVID-impact study, in which the researchers also looked at how their mental health changed after their friend or relative had been diagnosed with COVID."If the family member or a close friend had had a serious COVID infection, that is to say, been hospitalized or placed in intensive care or died, the percentage of patients with explicit symptoms remained higher throughout the year for which the participants were followed," she says.Bearing in mind how many people have contracted COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic, Dr. Lovik believes the study indicates a possible unmet public health need."The family members and close friends of people with COVID don't get enough recognition and don't always get the help they need," she says. "According to a Dutch study, the mental strain of losing a family member or very close friend to COVID-19 is comparable to losing someone to an unnatural death."

Young people's mental health deteriorated at greater rate during the pandemic, finds study - Researchers led by Professor Willem Kuyken at Oxford University's Department of Psychiatry compared the mental health difficulties and well-being of thousands of UK secondary school pupils who experienced three lockdowns, with a group of students who participated in the same study before the coronavirus pandemic emerged in 2020.The findings, part of the MYRIAD (My Resilience in Adolescence) study and published in the journal JAMA Network Open, show:

• Young people who went through the pandemicwere more likely to experience increased depression, social, emotional and behavioral difficulties and worsening general mental well-being.
• While mental health declined in both groups over time, those in the pandemic experienced a worsening in their mental health:
- Cases of depression increased 8.5% in those going through the pandemic versus 0.3% in the pre-pandemic group.
- Cases of high/very high social, emotional and behavioral difficulties increased 7.9% in the pandemic cohort vs. 3.5% in the pre-pandemic cohort.
- Cases of possible/probable mental health difficulties increased 12.8% in the pandemic group versus 4.5% in the pre-pandemic group.
- • Girls and those who were initially at low risk of mental health difficulties experienced greater deteriorations during the pandemic.
• Having a positive school climate, good relationships at home and having a friend to turn to for support during lockdown were protective factors.
• Even partial school attendance during lockdown was better for the subsequent adjustment when coming back to school than no attendance at all.

Professor Kuyken, Sir John Ritblat Family Foundation Professor of Mindfulness and Psychological Science in Oxford's Department of Psychiatry, said, "This research not only demonstrates the impact the pandemic had on young people's mental health but importantly also some of the protective factors that helped them get through it.""With the increased focus on young people's mental health, it is vitally important that we work to understand both what places young people at risk and what protects them under challenging circumstances.""This study shows that to promote better mental health and adjustment among young people, we need policies that foster home connectedness, friendship and a positive school climate and consider young people's individual differences, needs and vulnerabilities. Also we can see that full school closures should be avoided to protect the adjustment of young people."

Type 2 diabetes rates in US youth rose 62% after COVID pandemic began, study suggests - Rates of new-onset type 2 diabetes climbed 62%—and type 1 diabetes increased 17%—among US youth after the COVID-19 pandemic began, especially in Black and Hispanic children, according to a study published yesterday in JAMA Network Open.For the study, Kaiser Permanente researchers tracked rates of type 1 and type 2 diabetes among health system members aged 0 to 19 years in southern California with no history of diabetes from January 2016 to December 2021."Youth-onset diabetes is a serious chronic health condition, placing individuals at risk for early complications, comorbidities, and excess mortality, in particular among those who develop type 2 diabetes and those from racial and ethnic minority groups such as non-Hispanic Black individuals," the study authors wrote.Over the study period, 1,200 youth were diagnosed as having type 1 diabetes, 1,100 diagnosed with type 2 diabetes, and 63 patients with "other" diabetes. Type 1 diabetes rates climbed from 18.5 per 100,000 person-years in 2016 to 2019 to 22.4 per 100,000 person-years from 2020 to 2021.Relative to 2016 to 2019, in 2020 to 2021, the incidence of new-onset type 1 diabetes was 17% higher (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.17). The incidence was higher among patients aged 10 to 19 years (IRR,1.17), boys (IRR, 1.18), and Hispanic patients (1.21).Rates of type 2 diabetes were 62% higher (IRR, 1.62) in 2020 to 2021 than in 2016 to 2019. The incidence of type 2 diabetes rose from 14.8 to 24.7 per 100,000 person-years over that time.Rates were higher among patients aged 10 to 19 years (IRR, 1.63), girls (IRR, 1.44), boys (IRR, 1.83), Black patients (IRR, 1.95), Hispanic patients (IRR, 1.61), and other/unknown racial groups (IRR, 2.96). The incidence rate differences followed similar patterns for both type 1 and type 2 diabetes.By quarter, rates of type 1 diabetes fluctuated seasonally but climbed among patients aged 10 to 19 years in Q1 of 2021. Among youth with type 2 diabetes, a spike in incidence occurred in Q3 and Q4 of 2020, especially among Black and Hispanic patients, which the researchers said suggests that they bore a disproportionate burden of type 2 diabetes.

Study adds to growing evidence of link between COVID-19 and type 1 diabetes in children -- A new study adds to the growing body of evidence that COVID-19 is responsible for the increased onset of type 1 diabetes mellitus in children. type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease, which means that the immune system attacks the body’s own cells. Autoimmunity is typically mediated by the development of antibodies that erroneously recognize cellular proteins as foreign. These antibodies are called “autoantibodies” for short.The study found that the development of antibodies to COVID-19 was associated with the concurrent or subsequent development of the autoantibodies that are characteristically seen in type 1 diabetes. These autoantibodies—collectively referred to as “islet autoantibodies”—attack insulin-producing beta cells in the pancreas. Eventually the body cannot produce enough insulin, which results in blood glucose levels soaring to unhealthy and even dangerous levels. The power of the study derives from the fact that it has followed children longitudinally since 2018 for the purposes of studying type 1 diabetes. It has collected blood samples from the children at least every six months from enrollment at age 4-7 months until the age of 6.5 years. More frequent collection occurred from enrollment until age 2 years. Thus, the study could pinpoint the timing at which islet autoantibodies and SARS-CoV-2 virus antibodies appeared in the children’s blood. The study had two key additional strengths. First, it enrolled children from four countries, so its results were much less likely to be impacted by unique circumstances or populations in any one country. Second, it also looked at the development of antibodies to an influenza virus relative to the onset of islet autoantibodies. Comparing against influenza, which has not been associated with type 1 diabetes onset, served as a control to rule out potential other, undetected effects and a possible general effect of viral infections. The children in the study who developed SARS-CoV-2 antibodies had a risk of developing multiple islet autoantibodies that was a staggering 3.5 times higher than children who did not. It is known that approximately 70 percent of children who develop multiple islet autoantibodies will progress to type 1 diabetes mellitus within 10 years. Thus, the vast majority of these children would be expected to develop type 1 diabetes. In the influenza virus comparison, 101 children developed influenza virus antibodies. No children in the study developed islet autoantibodies concurrently with or after developing influenza antibodies. Thus, the expected lack of association with influenza virus was abundantly confirmed. The association between infection and type 1 diabetes is therefore not a general viral phenomenon but very likely specific to SARS-CoV-2. The study also computed incidence rates of developing islet autoantibodies, SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and influenza antibodies. The longitudinal tracking of the children over a years-long time interval was the key to enabling these calculations. The incidence rates, during various time intervals, for developing SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was consistent with the temporal course of the pandemic. For example, the incidence rate was highest—81.7 per 100 person years—during the Omicron variant surge from January to June 2022. It was zero prior to the pandemic and 4.4 per 100 person years in its first phase from July to December 2020. The incidence rates for developing islet autoantibodies did not vary significantly over time. The incidence rate for the development of influenza antibodies was 13.4 per 100 person years prior to the pandemic, dropped dramatically to 4.0 during the first phase of the pandemic (during temporary lockdowns, mask mandates, initial school closures, etc.) and then rose again to 11.8 from January to June 2022, following the universal implementation of the criminal “let it rip” policies of the ruling class. For children who developed SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, their subsequent incidence rate for developing islet autoantibodies was 7.8 per 100 person years. This compares to an incidence rate of 4.0 for children who were negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The incidence rate ratio was therefore 2.3, which means that one would expect 2.3 times as many children per year to develop islet autoantibodies who are positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies versus children who are negative. The attributable proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection to the development of islet autoantibodies was 57 percent. That means that of all the children with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies who subsequently developed islet autoantibodies, approximately 57 percent of them would not have developed islet autoantibodies if they had not been infected. The study also looked at the age at which children were infected and developed islet autoantibodies. The median age at which children developed SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 18 months. Of the children who developed islet autoantibodies (n=60), 92 percent were positive by 24 months and 100 percent were positive by 30 months. One-third of them (n=20) have already progressed to type 1 diabetes.

Cold virus may set the stage for Long COVID | National Institutes of Health --Many infections with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, resolve within days or weeks. But a significant number of people have symptoms that linger for weeks, months, or even years. This is called postacute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC)—commonly known as “Long COVID.” While several risk factors for PASC have been proposed, we still don’t understand what causes it or why some people get it and others don’t. To further complicate matters, PASC may have different causes in different people.Some with PASC have changes in certain immune responses, suggesting an immune mechanism for PASC. PASC is particularly common among people with systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases. These are chronic diseases, such as lupus, where the immune system mistakenly targets the body’s own tissues to cause inflammation. Up to 45% of those with these rheumatic diseases who are infected with SARS-CoV-2 develop PASC.An NIH-funded research team—led by Drs. Zachary Wallace at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH), Jeffrey Sparks at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, and Galit Alter at MGH, MIT, and Harvard—examined antibody responses in people with rheumatic diseases who’d had COVID-19. The team measured antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 and various other pathogens and vaccines. They compared the responses of those who developed PASC with those who didn’t. Results appeared inScience Translational Medicine on September 6, 2023.The team found that participants with PASC had much weaker antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 than those without PASC. But those with PASC had enhanced responses to another coronavirus called OC43, an endemic virus that causes common cold-like symptoms. Moreover, the stronger the response to OC43 in people with PASC, the weaker their response to SARS-CoV-2. This suggests that antibodies against OC43 may also be reacting to SARS-CoV-2. The researchers observed these patterns in two independent groups of more than 40 patients with rheumatic diseases (about a third of whom had PASC).The findings suggest that PASC may arise from a phenomenon known as immune imprinting. This refers to how a person’s history of previous infections can affect their immune response to new infections. In this case, when a person who was previously exposed to OC43 is infected with SARS-CoV-2, their immune system responds partly by using antibodies developed during OC43 infection that also recognize SARS-CoV-2. This “recall” response to OC43 leads to an inefficient overall response to SARS-CoV-2. Further research will be needed to determine if and how this weak immune response may lead to PASC.

Risk of long COVID goes up with previous diagnoses - A large study in Norway reveals that the risk of long COVID after a mild infection is about double among people who, before their COVID-19 infection, had been diagnosed as having psychological, respiratory, or general or unspecified health problems.The study is published in Nature Communications and is based on health data from 214,667 SARS-CoV-2–infected individuals who diagnosed with the virus from July 1, 2020, to January 24, 2022. The mean age was 44.6 years, and 50% were women. A total of 0.42% (908) were diagnosed as having post-COVID condition (PCC).Twenty-one percent had PCC-related respiratory problems, and 60% said they experienced fatigue.The strongest association for developing PCC was female sex (odds ratio [OR], 2.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.89 to 2.50) and infection with the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain (OR, 4.00; 95% CI, 3.48 to 4.6).Researchers then looked at prior healthcare use in the 2 years before COVID-19 infections. The strongest association for developing PCC was psychological care (OR 2.12; 95% CI, 1.84 to 2.44), respiratory problems (OR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.78 to 2.32) and general and unspecified health problems (OR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.52 to 2.09)."These findings imply that individuals who prior to the pandemic had a psychological diagnosis were approximately twice as likely to be classified with the post-COVID condition, compared to infected individuals without such prior diagnoses,” the authors wrote.

Rehab, breathing exercises aid in long-COVID recovery, review shows -A new systematic review and meta-analysis published in JAMA Network Open suggests that rehabilitation interventions involving breathing exercises and physical training are associated with improvements in functional exercise capacity, difficulty breathing, and quality of life for patients with long COVID, or post-COVID condition (PCC). "There is an urgent need for evidence-based rehabilitation interventions to support people affected by PCC," the authors write in the introduction to the study. The review was based on 14 randomized clinical trials involving 1,244 PCC patients. All trials compared respiratory training and exercise-based rehabilitation interventions with either placebo, usual care, waiting list, or control in patients with PCC. The main outcome measured was improvements in functional exercise capacity, most commonly defined by improvements in the 6-minute walking test, which is a functional test of how quickly subjects can cover a certain number of meters in a 6-minute walk. Secondary outcomes included fatigue, functional leg strength and endurance, dyspnea (difficulty with breathing), respiratory function, and quality of life. Forty-five percent of the trial participants included in the analysis were women, and PCC patients had a median age of 50 years. Six trials included patients who had previously been hospitalized due to a COVID-19 infection, and three trials had patients who had not been hospitalized. Five trials included mixed populations. Better quality of life, breathing The most common rehabilitation intervention seen in the trials were breathing exercises. Breathing exercises with resistance and aerobic training was also an intervention, as was physical exercise without a breathing exercise component. In seven trials, which included 389 participants, rehabilitation interventions were associated with improvements in functional exercise capacity (standardized mean differences [SMD], −0.56; 95% credible interval [CrI,] −0.87 to −0.22) with moderate certainty for the 6-minute walk test. Patients in the intervention group were able to cover a mean of 35.84 meters (m) more than patients in the usual care group during the 6-minute walking test (95% confidence interval [CI], 34.97 m to 36.71 m). In eight trials, researchers looked at rehabilitation and dyspnea. Rehabilitation interventions were associated with a greater improvement in functional exercise capacity compared with usual care (SMD, −1.00; 95% CrI, −1.94 to −0.10). In five studies, rehabilitation interventions were associated with larger improvement in quality of life compared with the comparison group (SMD, −0.41; 95% CrI, −0.73 to −0.06).

How common long COVID is may depend on how it's defined --In Open Forum Infectious Diseases, Dutch scientists report that the definition of post-COVID condition (PCC, or long COVID) matters when estimating prevalence in a population.In people who had previously tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the prevalence of long-term symptoms varied from 26.9% to 64.1%, depending on which of six different definitions was used, while in those who tested negative, the prevalence varied from 11.4% to 32.5%.The study was based on participant results from the Prevalence, Risk factors, and Impact Evaluation (PRIME) post-COVID-19 condition study conducted in November 2021. A total of 61,655 adults responded to a questionnaire that tracked 44 PCC symptoms since the time of their positive or negative COVID-19 tests.Of the participants, 7,405 (75.6%) had tested positive and 2,392 (24.4%) negative. The six definitions of PCC included one or more of the 44 symptoms, only one symptom, symptoms experienced after 3 months of diagnosis, and PCC defined by different levels of symptom severity, among others. No participant who experienced symptoms for less than 3 months was included in the study.When defining PCC as having one or more of the 44 symptoms, 80.5% of positives who tested 3 to 5 months ago, 76.4% who tested 6 to 11 months ago, and 74.7% who tested more than 12 months ago met criteria for diagnosis. But by using the same definition, a substantial number of participants who tested negative for COVID-19 would also be classified as having PCC."Results of our study suggest that defining the presence of long-term symptoms based on any symptoms, likely overestimate prevalence of post-COVID-19 condition," the authors conclude. "Selecting only symptoms significantly more often reported in positives than negatives and including a degree of severity results in lower prevalence estimates."

COVID vaccination after long COVID may be linked to better outcomes - A new observational study from Canadian researchers reveals that COVID vaccination after long COVID was tied to fewer symptoms, increased well-being, and less inflammation. The study, based on participants in Montreal, is published in theInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases.Long COVID, or post-COVID condition (PCC), is a major emerging public health issue, as 10% to 30% of COVID-19 patients who are not hospitalized, and 50% to 70% hospitalized patients, experience an array of symptoms lasting more than 12 weeks after acute infection. While vaccination may protect against severe disease and hospitalization, less is known about how vaccination after PCC diagnosis affects patients. In the present study, 83 participants previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 who were diagnosed as having PCC before COVID vaccination were followed for up to 24 months. Participants were enrolled in the study from February 12 to September 8, 2021. Forty-four had not yet received a COVID-19 vaccine at the beginning of the study, while the remaining 39 had already received one or two doses. The five most common PCC symptoms reported at the beginning of the study were fatigue (81.9%), trouble with concentration (47.0%), trouble with memory (39.8%), headache (32.5%) and shortness of breath at rest (31.3%) during all follow-ups.After vaccination, 77.8%, 7.4%, and 14.8% of participants reported improved, worsened and unchanged well-being scores, respectively, the authors said. And 86%, 8.3% and 5.6% of participants reported fewer, more, and the same number of PCC symptoms, respectively.Sixteen cytokines and chemokines were significantly decreased after vaccination in participant blood samples, a sign that inflammatory proteins were mitigated by vaccination.

YouTube sent users to less relevant—not anti-vax—videos amid COVID, study suggests Researchers from UN Global Pulse, the United Nations' innovation lab, uncover no strong evidence that the YouTube video-sharing platform promoted anti-vaccine content during the COVID-19 pandemic."However, the watch histories of users significantly affect video recommendations, suggesting that data from the application programming interface or from a clean browser do not offer an accurate picture of the recommendations that real users are seeing," the researchers wrote of the findings, published late last week in the Journal of Medical Internet Research.The team asked World Health Organization (WHO)-trained participants and workers from the Amazon Mechanical Turk crowdsourcing tool to find an anti-vaccine video in the fewest clicks, starting from a WHO COVID-19 video. They compared the recommendations the users saw to related videos and recommended "up-next" videos seen through clean browsers without tracking software.Using machine-learning methods, the researchers then identified anti-vaccine content among 27,074 video recommendations.Promoted anti-vaccine content stayed under 6%There was no evidence that YouTube funneled users toward anti-vaccine content, with the average proportion of such videos staying below 6%. Instead, YouTube's algorithms pointed users to non–vaccine-related health content."The videos that users were directed to were longer and contained more popular content, and attempted to push a blockbuster strategy to engage users by promoting other reliably successful content across the platform," lead author Margaret Yee Man Ng, PhD, said in a University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) news release. Ng is also a journalism professor at UIUC. The authors noted that there have been significant concerns about the contribution of social media to vaccine hesitancy throughout the pandemic. For example, Facebook removed some COVID-19 misinformation starting in 2020, but a recent study revealed that users just found other ways to access and spread it.

Study details immune cells vital to success of vaccines against coronavirus - A study has revealed new details about a key population of immune system cells critical to successful vaccination against the pandemic virus, SARS-CoV-2.Led by researchers at NYU Grossman School of Medicine and New York Genome Center, the current study focused on T cells, which along with B cells, compose the human immune system's response to invading viruses and bacteria. A subset of T cells, labeled with the surface protein CD8, produce molecules that directly kill infected cells. B cells produce antibody proteins that neutralize and label infected cells for removal from the body.Without risking infectious disease itself, vaccines expose patients to a piece of an invading microbe to generate responses that include B and T cell activation, such that the system is ready for the invader should it be encountered again. The mRNA vaccines deployed against COVID-19 were based on RNA, agenetic material used to encode the spike protein that the virus needs to attach to human cells. Once injected, mRNA instructions are read, the spike is built, and the immune response is triggered.In the rush to develop vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, and with the rapid testing of thousands of patients required, clinical trials relied mostly on antibody levels, where efficient tests were available, to judge whether patients' immune responses to mRNA vaccine candidates were protective.The resulting clinical protection, however, was evident as early as ten days after the first vaccine shot, well before neutralizing antibodies could possibly be generated. T cells were suspected to be at least as important to this protection, but standard methods for tracking them were too slow, and so careful analyses of CD8⁺ T cell responses were sidelined.Published online September 21 in Nature Immunology, the new study describes a fast (high-throughput) method to track T cell responses, confirms them to be vital to early protection provided by mRNA vaccines against COVID-19, and reveals the T cell subsets most responsible for it."Our study identified markers for the CD8⁺ T cells that arise from mRNA vaccination and that track closely with successful vaccination, which had previously been difficult to quantify on the population level," says co-first study author Rabi Upadhyay, MD, assistant professor in the Department of Medicine at NYU Langone Health, and faculty in its Perlmutter Cancer Center."Although our study looks at mRNA vaccination against coronavirus, the antigen-specific CD8⁺ T cell subpopulations we uncover represent key features of immune responses more broadly, and may help us to study T cells in other disease settings."

Moderna reveals new highly targeted COVID-19 vaccine mRNA-1283 - Moderna has developed a new and improved version of its COVID-19 vaccine. The unique formulation (mRNA-1283) reduces the vaccine's content from the full-length SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to a narrowly focused encoding of just two segments—the N-terminal domain (NTD) and the receptor binding domain (RBD).In a paper, "Domain-based mRNA vaccines encoding spike protein N-terminal and receptor binding domains confer protection against SARS-CoV-2," published in Science Translational Medicine, Moderna Inc. researchers share findings of the new vaccine.Some of the highlights of the new formula include:

Improved antigen expression: mRNA-1283 demonstrated improved antigen expression compared to the clinically available mRNA-1273, which encodes the full-length spike protein. This suggests that mRNA-1283 can produce higher levels of the target antigens.
Enhanced antibody responses: When administered as a primary series, booster, or variant-specific booster, mRNA-1283 elicited similar or greater immune responses than the original mRNA-1273.
Greater stability: mRNA-1283 showed greater stability at refrigerated temperatures (2° to 8°C). Specifically, mRNA-1283 reached 62% of its initial integrity at 12 months when stored at 2° to 8°C, while the original version reached 63% integrity after only six months under the same conditions, effectively doubling the shelf life.
Dose-sparing: mRNA-1283 demonstrated the ability to elicit effective immunogenic responses even at lower doses, suggesting the possibility of dose-sparing, which could reduce potential reactogenicity.
Protection against variants: mRNA-1283, including variant-specific versions, produced more significant neutralizing antibody (nAb) responses against variants such as B.1.351 and B.1.617.2 compared to mRNA-1273, indicating its effectiveness against emerging variants.

In animal studies, mice vaccinated with mRNA-1283 were protected from both the D614G mutation and BA.1 variants of SARS-CoV-2, further suggesting that mRNA-1283 can confer protection against different strains of the virus.Overall, mRNA-1283 offers several advantages, including improved antigen expression, strong immune responses, stability, and dose-sparing, making it a promising candidate for further clinical evaluation as a COVID-19 vaccine.Early research on the SARS-CoV-2 virus identified the spike protein as a critical component of viral entry into host cells. This knowledge laid the foundation for the original vaccine development by Moderna, which encoded the entire length of the spike protein in the original vaccine formulation.Researchers have since recognized that not all parts of the spike protein are equally crucial for immune responses. Certain regions, particularly the receptor binding domain (RBD) and the N-terminal domain (NTD), were identified as critical sites for neutralization by antibodies.Extensive research into the structure and function of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, including its spike protein, provided valuable insights into potential vaccine targets. Scientists used this research to design vaccines specifically focused on the RBD, NTD, or a combination of these domains.A combination of a deep understanding of the virus, advances in vaccine technology, and rigorous scientific research contributed to the discovery that domain-based vaccines like mRNA-1283 can focus on just the critical antigenic domains of the spike protein.An effective streamlined and targeted vaccine should also allow for a shorter response time to emerging strains as reformulation efforts only need to focus on the changes of two sites on the virus spike protein.

Study: Original Pfizer COVID vaccine 33% effective against emergency, urgent care in young kids -A new study in JAMA estimates that the original single-strain Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine conferred 33% protection against COVID-19 emergency department (ED) and urgent care (UC) visits for children younger than 5 years during Omicron variant predominance.Researchers from Kaiser Permanente and Pfizer conducted a test-negative case-control study among 24,261 patients aged 6 months to 4 years diagnosed as having an acute respiratory infection (ACI) and tested for SARS-CoV-2 at Kaiser Permanente Southern California from July 2022 to May 2023. Of all children, 48% were seen in the ED, 29% visited the UC, and 23% were outpatients. The researchers noted that although wild-type COVID-19 mRNA vaccines were recommended for children ages 6 months to 4 years in Jun 2022, less than 5% had completed a three-dose primary vaccine series as of May 2023. Only one study has investigated the link between vaccination and infection outcomes in this age-group, but it excluded patients younger than 3 years and didn't investigate medically attended outcomes, they said. A total of 2,337 (10%) of all patients tested positive for COVID-19, and 1,457 (6%) were vaccinated. Of the 2,337 infected patients, 3.3% had received two or three vaccine doses, as had 6.3% of 21,924 COVID-negative control patients. Of vaccinees who received two doses, the median interval since dose 2 was 59 days, while the interval between doses 2 and 3 among the triple-vaccinated was 61 days.The adjusted odds ratio (OR) for children who received two or three COVID-19 vaccine doses, relative to unvaccinated patients, was 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52 to 0.93) for a COVID-related ED or UC visit, 0.60 (95% CI, 0.39 to 0.92) for an outpatient visit, and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.85) for either outcome.The risk of a positive COVID-19 test at an ED or UC visit was 0.56 (95% CI, 0.40 to 0.77) after two doses and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.62 to 1.25) after three doses."The risk of SARS-CoV-2 encounters appeared lower for those with 2 vs 3 doses of BNT162b2 [Pfizer vaccine], albeit with wide CIs, which is likely due to more immune-evasive Omicron sublineages (eg, BQ.1-related and XBB-related strains) becoming dominant by the time young children received their third dose and longer median time since dose 3 compared with dose 2," the study authors wrote.

Study identifies shared molecular mechanisms across SARS-CoV-2 variants that allow virus to thrive despite vaccination - In a study published online in Cell , scientists at UCSF QBI, University College London and the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai reported breakthrough findings on convergent evolutionary mechanisms shared by COVID-19 variants, allowing them to overcome both adaptive and innate immune system barriers.In the paper titled, SARS-CoV-2 Variants Evolve Convergent Strategies to Remodel the Host Response, published in Cell, scientists carried out an unprecedented, systematic comparative study using the most infectious COVID-19 variants, namely alpha, beta, gamma, delta and omicron to identify specific viral mutations responsible for hijacking a common host pathway, thereby leading to increased transmissibility, infectivity and survival.Specifically, they discovered a convergence in potent suppression of interferon-stimulated genes through several viral proteins, including Orf6 and Orf9b, which serve as innate immune antagonist proteins capable of blocking innate host immune response.The study, led by the laboratories of Nevan Krogan, Ph.D., Director of the Quantitative Biosciences Institute (QBI) at the School of Pharmacy at UC San Francisco, Senior Investigator at Gladstone Institutes, was a collaborative effort that involved 16 institutions in six countries, including University College London (UCL) in London, England (Greg Towers and Clare Jolly) and Icahn Mount Sinai (Adolfo Garcia-Sastre and Lisa Miorin) among others."Unfortunately, we continue to see new mutations and strains of SARS-CoV-2 despite innovations in new vaccines," said Dr. Krogan, who founded the QBI Coronavirus Research Group (QCRG)."We evaluated each of the viral variants in isolation and discovered that there was a common mechanism involving several viral proteins, including Orf6 and Orf9b, that potently suppresses innate immunity. This finding is consistent with our investigation of early SARS-CoV-2 variants where certain viral proteins were highly expressed in infected cells which helped the virus infect our cells.""With our additional research across SARS-CoV-2 variants, we now see this as a crucial finding that, if targeted effectively, could be turned into a significant vulnerability for this virus, which also has important implications for management of future pandemics."

Both Paxlovid, molnupiravir lower COVID Omicron deaths, hospitalizations, studies conclude -Two new studies describe the benefits of the antiviral drugs nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (Paxlovid) and molnupiravir in reducing SARS-CoV-2 Omicron hospitalizations and death, with one finding that the former is more effective than the latter at lowering death rates. Paxlovid and molnupiravir are used to treat nonhospitalized COVID-19 patients at high risk for severe illness within 5 days after symptom onset. In JAMA Network Open today, researchers from the University of North Carolina and Cleveland Clinic report on 68,867 outpatients diagnosed as having COVID-19 at Cleveland Clinic from April 2022 to February 2023. The observational study spanned the predominance of the Omicron subvariants BA.2, BA.4/BA.5, BQ.1/BQ.1.1, and XBB/XBB.1.5. Of the 68,867 patients, 42.7% were aged 65 years or older, 38.9% were male, and 74.7% were White. Follow-up was 90 days. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for hospitalization and death was 0.63 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.68) for Paxlovid and 0.59 (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.66) for molnupiravir. Thirty of 22,594 Paxlovid recipients (0.1%), 27 of 5,311 molnupiravir recipients (0.5%), and 588 of 40,962 untreated patients (1.4%) died within 90 days of infection. The cumulative incidence of death at 90 days after diagnosis was 0.15% (95% CI, 0.10% to 0.21%) for treated patients and 1.05% (95% CI, 0.95% to 1.15%) for untreated patients. The adjusted HRs for death were 0.16 (95% CI, 0.11 to 0.23) for Paxlovid and 0.23 (95% CI, 0.16 to 0.34) for molnupiravir. The adjusted HRs for hospitalization or death were 0.63 (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.68) for Paxlovid and 0.59 (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.66) for molnupiravir. Among Paxlovid recipients aged 65 years or older, the cumulative incidence of death at 90 days was 0.25% (95% CI, 0.17% to 0.37%) for the treated and 2.42% (95% CI, 1.15% to 2.67%) for the untreated. For those younger than 65, the cumulative incidence of death at 90 days was 0.04% (95% CI, 0.02% to 0.11%) for the treated and 0.32% (95% CI, 0.25% to 0.40%) for the untreated. Older age, male sex, and low socioeconomic status were tied to a higher risk of death for Paxlovid recipients. Patients who had weakened immune systems, cardiovascular diseases, or other nonrespiratory diseases also were at higher risk of death. Vaccination and previous infection were linked to a lower risk of death. Among molnupiravir recipients, the cumulative risk of death at 90 days was 0.60% (95% CI, 0.41% to 0.88%) for treated patients and 1.57% (95% CI, 1.43% to 1.68%) for the untreated. Among patients aged 65 or older, the incidence of death was 0.88% (95% CI, 0.59% to 1.31%) for the treated and 3.46% (95% CI, 3.12% to 3.71%) for the untreated. Among those younger than 65, the incidence of death was 0.17% (95% CI, 0.05% to 0.54%) for the treated and 0.44% (95% CI, 0.36% to 0.53%) for untreated patients. The adjusted HR of death among molnupiravir recipients was 0.23 (95% CI, 0.16 to 0.34). Among patients 65 years or older, the adjusted HR was 0.24 (95% CI, 0.16 to 0.37). Among younger patients, the adjusted HR was 0.13 (95% CI, 0.04 to 0.43). "These findings suggest that the use of either nirmatrelvir or molnupiravir is associated with reductions in mortality and hospitalization in patients infected with Omicron, regardless of age, race and ethnicity, virus strain, vaccination status, previous infection status, or coexisting conditions," the study authors wrote. "Both drugs can, therefore, be used to treat nonhospitalized patients who are at high risk of progressing to severe COVID-19."

Remdesivir tied to lower COVID death rates in hospital patients receiving oxygen - A comparative-effectiveness study that spanned the dominance of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) finds that the antiviral drug remdesivir (Veklury) significantly reduced in-hospital COVID-19 death rates among adults receiving supplemental oxygen on admission. The study, led by researchers from remdesivir manufacturer Gilead Sciences, was published today in Open Forum Infectious Diseases. The team compared 67,582 hospitalized COVID-19 patients receiving low-flow oxygen (LFO), 34,857 on high-flow oxygen/noninvasive ventilation (HFO/NIV), and 4,164 receiving invasive mechanical ventilation/extracorporeal membrane oxygen (IMV/ECMO) treated with remdesivir with control patients from December 2020 to April 2022. At least one dose of remdesivir was administered within 2 days of hospitalization. The study authors noted that World Health Organization guidelines conditionally recommend remdesivir for severely—but not critically—ill COVID-19 patients. "This lack of recommendation for remdesivir use in critically ill patients may reflect either lower efficacy or alternatively, the inability to detect beneficial effects, since clinical trials were not designed or powered to detect differences in remdesivir efficacy in subgroups according to baseline COVID-19 severity," they wrote. "In the US, approximately 1 in 2 patients requiring invasive ventilation has died since the beginning of the pandemic," wrote the authors, who said remdesivir should be administered immediately to all hospitalized COVID-19 patients. "It remains essential to continue to evaluate therapeutic options to treat patients throughout the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and VOC periods."

Study: COVID therapeutics not available evenly across US --Access to COVID-19 therapeutics, like almost every other facet of the pandemic, is defined by sociodemographic-based disparities, according to a new survey published in JAMA Network Open.The study was based on data taken from the COVID-19 Public Therapeutic Locator, and the researchers paired the data with county-level population to assess geospatial differences in access to COVID-19 therapeutics, including monoclonal antibodies.Counties were grouped into cluster types, including high-high clusters (counties with higher availability), low-low clusters (counties with lower availability), high-low and low-high outliers (counties with either high or low levels of availability surrounded by counties with either low or high levels of availability), and unclustered (counties with neither high nor low levels of availability). The county-level analysis shows counties with high poverty and uninsured rates, as well as a high number of Black residents, had significantly lower access to COVID-19 therapeutic drugs.COVID-19 treatments were highly available (39.08-854.70 per 100,000 people) in some parts of New England, Kansas, and across the United States. Overall, the higher the household income in a county, the more access residents had to COVID-19 therapeutics."High-high clusters around Maine, western Kansas and Nebraska, and eastern Montana," the authors wrote. "Low-low clusters appeared across the South and Midwest regions and some parts of the Western region."The authors said this information provides essential knowledge for the next phase of the pandemic."With the end of the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency, these results highlight an important gap in treatment access," the authors wrote.

Federal appeals court revives lawsuit against FDA over COVID-19 ivermectin messaging - A federal appeals court ruled Friday that a lawsuit against the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) over its campaign against the use of ivermectin to treat COVID-19 can continue, reversing a lower court decision.Three doctors sued the FDA last year claiming that the agency’s anti-ivermectin campaign went too far, overstepping its authority and acting more as a medical body than a regulator.A district court ruled that the suit could not continue, but the 5th Circuit Appeals Court revived the doctors’ hope in its Friday ruling, sending the case back to a lower court where it will be reconsidered.“FDA is not a physician. It has authority to inform, announce, and apprise — but not to endorse, denounce, or advise,” Judge Don Willett wrote for the appeals court. “The Doctors have plausibly alleged that FDA’s Posts fell on the wrong side of the line between telling about and telling to.” The FDA’s campaign, which included viral signs reading “You are not a horse,” emphasized agency recommendations that ivermectin — an anti-parasite medication often used for horses but sometimes prescribed to humans — should not be used to treat COVID-19.“Although FDA has approved ivermectin for certain uses in humans and animals, it has not authorized or approved ivermectin for use in preventing or treating COVID-19, nor has the agency stated that it is safe or effective for that use,” the agency’s recommendations stated.Some fringe conservative circles hailed the drug as a miracle cure, while others were hospitalized and some died from its side effects.A review of 14 studies on ivermectin use in 2021 found little significant evidence supporting its use, noting that among the studies, “few are considered high quality.”“It must be acknowledged that some of these studies were possibly intentionally designed to yield predetermined findings,” researchers wrote.The World Health Organization and the National Institutes of Health are among the bodies that have also recommended against ivermectin use for COVID treatment. The drug’s manufacturer, Merck, said there is “no meaningful evidence” that is is effective at treating the disease.The three doctors said their reputations were harmed by the FDA campaign because they promoted ivermectin use. One doctor was suspended from a hospital, while another was fired from a medical school.

The 60-Year-Old Scientific Screwup That Helped Covid Kill Us -- All pandemic long, scientists brawled over how the virus spreads. Droplets! No, aerosols! At the heart of the fight was a teensy error with huge consequences. - It was just past 1 pm Geneva time on April 3, 2020, but in Blacksburg, Virginia, where Lindsey Marr lives with her husband and two children, dawn was just beginning to break. Marr is an aerosol scientist at Virginia Tech and one of the few in the world who also studies infectious diseases. To her, the new coronavirus looked as if it could hang in the air, infecting anyone who breathed in enough of it. For people indoors, that posed a considerable risk. But the WHO didn’t seem to have caught on. Just days before, the organization had tweeted “FACT: #COVID19 is NOT airborne.” That’s why Marr was skipping her usual morning workout to join 35 other aerosol scientists. They were trying to warn the WHO it was making a big mistake. Over Zoom, they laid out the case. They ticked through a growing list of superspreading events in restaurants, call centers, cruise ships, and a choir rehearsal, instances where people got sick even when they were across the room from a contagious person. The incidents contradicted the WHO’s main safety guidelines of keeping 3 to 6 feet of distance between people and frequent handwashing. If SARS-CoV-2 traveled only in large droplets that immediately fell to the ground, as the WHO was saying, then wouldn’t the distancing and the handwashing have prevented such outbreaks? Infectious air was the more likely culprit, they argued. But the WHO’s experts appeared to be unmoved. If they were going to call Covid-19 airborne, they wanted more direct evidence—proof, which could take months to gather, that the virus was abundant in the air. Meanwhile, thousands of people were falling ill every day. On the video call, tensions rose. At one point, Lidia Morawska, a revered atmospheric physicist who had arranged the meeting, tried to explain how far infectious particles of different sizes could potentially travel. One of the WHO experts abruptly cut her off, telling her she was wrong, Marr recalls. His rudeness shocked her. “You just don’t argue with Lidia about physics,” she says. Morawska had spent more than two decades advising a different branch of the WHO on the impacts of air pollution. When it came to flecks of soot and ash belched out by smokestacks and tailpipes, the organization readily accepted the physics she was describing—that particles of many sizes can hang aloft, travel far, and be inhaled. Now, though, the WHO’s advisers seemed to be saying those same laws didn’t apply to virus-laced respiratory particles. To them, the word airborne only applied to particles smaller than 5 microns. Trapped in their group-specific jargon, the two camps on Zoom literally couldn’t understand one another. When the call ended, Marr sat back heavily, feeling an old frustration coiling tighter in her body. She itched to go for a run, to pound it out footfall by footfall into the pavement. “It felt like they had already made up their minds and they were just entertaining us,” she recalls. Marr was no stranger to being ignored by members of the medical establishment. Often seen as an epistemic trespasser, she was used to persevering through skepticism and outright rejection. This time, however, so much more than her ego was at stake. The beginning of a global pandemic was a terrible time to get into a fight over words. But she had an inkling that the verbal sparring was a symptom of a bigger problem—that outdated science was underpinning public health policy. She had to get through to them. But first, she had to crack the mystery of why their communication was failing so badly.

Gov. Mike DeWine tests positive for COVID-19 — Gov. Mike DeWine tested positive for COVID-19 on Tuesday. According to a release from the governor's office, DeWine was experiencing mild cold symptoms on Monday. DeWine believed it was just a head cold, so he continued his work day on Tuesday but his symptoms worsened. His doctor advised he take a COVID test, which came back positive. The governor reportedly had a 101-degree fever at the time of taking the test around 5:30 p.m. He is resting at home at this time, according to the release. DeWine's positive test comes just hours after he and Columbus Mayor Andrew Ginther met during a press conference on to announce a new initiative against gun violence. COVID-19 hospitalizations have been rising since late summer although –- thanks to some lasting immunity from prior vaccinations and infections –- not nearly as much as this time last year. But protection wanes over time and the coronavirus continually churns out new variants that can dodge prior immunity. It’s been a year since the last time the vaccines were tweaked. Just like earlier vaccinations, the fall round is cleared for adults and children as young as age 6 months. FDA said starting at age 5, most people can get a single dose even if they’ve never had a prior COVID-19 shot. Younger children might need additional doses depending on their history of COVID-19 infections and vaccinations.

This Children’s Hospital Requiring Staff to Wear Masks as COVID Surges - As respiratory illnesses have continued to rise, employees at an Ohio hospital will once again have to wear masks, the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. The mandate at Cincinnati Children’s Hospital goes into effect Monday and is due to the increased spread and prevalence of respiratory illnesses including RSV, the flu and COVID-19, WCPO reports. Hospital officials are also strongly urging, though not yet requiring, patients, families and visitors to mask up. “That might change should local and national data show an even greater rise in respiratory illnesses in our area,” the hospital system said in a statement obtained by The Enquirer. The hospital said the decision was made for everyone’s safety, “based on evidence that masks are effective in reducing the spread of respiratory illness.” In Ohio, cases of COVID have been increasing for 10 weeks in a row, and are at their highest point since Jan. 12, Cleveland.com reports. Further, COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths in Ohio were up last week, according to the Dayton Daily News.

Main US COVID markers continue slow rise - US COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths continued their slow rise over the past week, but two early indicators showed declines, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in its latest data update. Hospitalizations rose 7.7% compared to the week before, with admissions at the medium level in some parts of southern half of the country and sporadic pockets of high-level counties in roughly the same areas but also including a few locations in Montana and Oregon. Deaths were up 2.7% from the past week, with Kentucky the only state in the high range. Of the early indicators, emergency department visits for COVID declined 19.3%, with Oregon as the only state at the moderate level. Test positivity dropped slightly, by 1.6%, and is at 12.5% nationally, with the highest levels in the southern tier of Midwestern states and part of the northeast. A little more than a week ago, the CDC recommended the updated COVID mRNA vaccines for people ages 6 months and older, and with distribution and coverage now handled by the private sector instead of the government, some Americans are facing glitches such as insurance coverage denials, the Washington Post reported today.In international developments, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said today in its weekly communicable disease update that COVID indicators are rising in about half of reporting countries, but so far, the activity is having relatively limited impact on hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, or deaths. XBB.1.5 and related variants are dominant and rising, according to sequencing from reporting countries.As of September 21, there were 172 detections of the highly mutated BA.2.86 variant, which were from 9 European Union or European Economic Area countries and 11 other world regions.

Study finds COVID cases underreported in most African countries during initial stage - A new analysis of COVID-19 cases in Africa shows that for most of the continent's countries the rate of infection was likely much higher than reported in the initial stages, found York University researchers.Case counts reported by most African countries suggest the virus spread slowly during the early part of the pandemic, but the researchers say those numbers likely didn't capture the true extent of the spread."The low reporting numbers was likely due to a lack of public awareness, public health resources, monitoring practices, testing availability and stigma," says Faculty of Science Professor Jude Kong, senior author of the paper and director of the Global South Artificial Intelligence for Pandemic and Epidemic Preparedness and Response Network (AI4PEP).To get a better handle on the real number of those infected, the researchers used an epidemiological mathematical model, along with observed data, for 54 countries in Africa to estimate the number of hidden infections. Data on cumulative number of cases and daily confirmed cases were used to build an epidemic profile for Africa of the initial stage of COVID-19.What may be most surprising is the estimation that some 66 percent of all infections in Africa were asymptomatic, while about five percent were severe and about 27 percent were mild. “Africa is primarily comprised of a young population so it's possible there were fewer cases, less severe symptoms or more people with asymptomatic symptoms than in a population that has a higher percentage of seniors," says Postdoctoral Fellow Qing Han, lead researcher on the paper. "This suggests the possibility of a lower rate of detection of the virus."The researchers found that the basic reproduction number (R0) in each country was much higher than when only reported cases were used as the average overall case reporting rate was low—estimated at about five percent continent-wide—in the early stages for each country. They estimate that the real mean R0 is 2.02 compared to the reported R0 of 0.17 and ranged from 1.12 in Zambia and 3.64 in Nigeria."Counties that showed a R0 of less than one, which basically means there was no outbreak, likely have a much higher true R0. Not investigating the underreported figures could cause an underestimation of the severity and magnitude of the epidemic locally in each country," says Han.

Experts say CDC not getting right advice on hospital infection prevention --This week hundreds of industrial hygienists, healthcare worker union reps, epidemiologists, and aerosol scientists plan to send a second letter to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), asking the agency to hold public meetings to discuss the Healthcare Infection Control Practices Advisory Committee's (HICPAC's) proposal to update the CDC's Isolation Precautions guidance, last updated in 2007.A proposal from HICPAC, a federal advisory committee, will become the standard for hospital safety practices across the country, setting infection control protocols for a variety of pathogens in different healthcare scenarios.The guidance is meant to protect both healthcare workers and patients.Though HICPAC has yet to make a formal proposal, the committee released slides this summer during a presentation that angered and confused more than 900 public health experts and more than 1,000 public supporters who sent a letter to CDC Direct Mandy Cohen, MD, MPH, asking for more stakeholders to be involved in updating the guidance. Those experts said the new guidance not only fails to take into account what has been learned about COVID-19 transmission, they actually weaken existing isolation procedures."The draft recommendations fail to reflect what has been confirmed about aerosol transmission by inhalation during the COVID-19 pandemic," the petitioners said in a letter dated July 20. "The draft recommendations do not adequately provide for the proper control measures—isolation, ventilation, and NIOSH-approved respirators—to protect against transmission of infectious aerosols."In a response to the letter, the CDC said it will seek input from the public and key stakeholders and experts after HICPAC develops, adopts, and sends recommendations to the CDC, which is slated for November.But that's too late, said Lisa Brosseau, ScD, CIH, an expert on respiratory protection for workers. History, she says, shows that few changes are made after a federal advisory committee drafts an official proposal. She said HICPAC needs to hear from other stakeholders, representative of the 900 people who signed the first letter, now. The proposed guidance is full of outright errors, she said, such as a slide that states surgical masks are as effective as respirators in preventing transmission of airborne diseases based on a review of 27 studies."What did we learn from COVID? It seems like nothing, according to HICPAC," Brosseau said. HICPAC's proposal does recommend healthcare workers use respirators, but only in the case of measles and tuberculosis."They recognize respirators are needed for some things, but not COVID," Brosseau explained.

Only a fourth of recommended sepsis screening tools can reasonably predict sepsis, researchers say -Just one of four internationally recommended sepsis screening tools that emergency medical services (EMS) use can identify the life-threatening condition with any accuracy, according to researchpresented today at the European Emergency Medicine Congress in Barcelona, Spain. A Universitätsmedizin Berlin–led team linked health insurance data from 221,429 patients seen by EMS in Germany in 2016 and 2017 with information on 110,419 patients from paramedics and emergency department (ED) doctors in 2016.Sepsis, which occurs when the body mounts an outsized response to an infection, can lead to organ damage or death. Early identification and treatment of sepsis improves survival. The Society of Critical Care Medicine's Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines 2021 recommend four screening tools.The National Early Warning Score (NEWS-2) accurately predicted 72.2% of sepsis cases, followed by the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS; 46.8%), the Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS; 30.4%), and the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA; 24.0%). Those are sensitivity scores. For specificity, NEWS-2 correctly identified 81.4% of non-septic cases, compared with 88.4% for MEWS, 93.8% for SIRS, and 96.6% for qSOFA.Piedmont said that positive NEWS-2 results should be flagged for potential sepsis. "If EMS insist on using the qSOFA, they should be aware that a positive qSOFA makes sepsis likely, but also, that a negative qSOFA cannot rule out sepsis conclusively," she said.

NYC hospital system reports rise in carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella infections Analysis of data from a large public healthcare system in New York City shows concerning changes in the numbers and epidemiology of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) infections since 2016. The data, published yesterday in Emerging Infectious Diseases, show a notable increase in CRKP infections in the New York City Health and Hospitals Enterprise during the COVID-19 pandemic, more cases originating in the community, and the rise of newer resistance mechanisms that challenge first-line antibiotics. Notable increase in late 2021, early 2022 For the study, researchers used National Healthcare Safety Network data to characterize laboratory-identified CRKP infections in the hospital system, which includes 11 acute care hospitals and serves more than 1.2 million people each year. They used patient medical records to determine where the patients were admitted from, and reviewed results of testing conducted by the New York State Department of Health to assess antibiotic susceptibility and identify the enzymes conferring carbapenem resistance. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention considers CRKP and other members of the carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) family to be an urgent public health threat. CRKP infections tend to originate in healthcare settings among severely ill patients who have been on antibiotics and are on ventilators or have indwelling devices. They're challenging to treat because carbapenem antibiotics are a last-resort treatment option for multidrug-resistant infections. In 2017, an estimated 1,100 US patients died from CRE infections. The number of community-onset cases, the increasing overall numbers, and the emergence of NDM-possessing carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae identified in this study are concerning. From January 1, 2016, to June 30, 2022, the researchers identified 509 CRKP patients. The major sources of positive cultures were the genitourinary tract (52%), respiratory tract (21%), bloodstream (12%), and skin or other soft tissue (11%). Of the 509 patients, more than half (262) were considered to have community-onset positive cultures, with 149 living at home, 108 coming from a long-term care facility, and 5 transferred from other acute-care facilities. Although CRKP cases declined from 2016 to 2020, the data reveal a notable increase in cases in late 2021 and early 2022. The study authors say this likely reflects the national increases observed among several healthcare-associated infections during the pandemic, which were caused by multiple factors, including prolonged COVID hospitalizations and increased antibiotic use. Staff shortages and less attention to standard infection prevention and control methods also contributed. In addition, the authors say they were surprised by the large number of community-onset CRKP cases that were identified. Previous studies have indicated that only 10% of CRE cases are community-onset. "It is disconcerting that approximately half of the patients had community-onset cultures; 31% of patients with community-onset isolates lived at home, were not on hemodialysis, and had not been recently hospitalized," they wrote. They also note that the percentage of cases coming from long-term care facilities rose from 36.3% during 2016-2020 to 59.1% over the next 18 months. The authors say the increase in community-onset cases could be related to socioeconomic factors, including poverty and overcrowded living conditions—factors that have been implicated in community spread of other bacterial pathogens, like methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. But they add that further research is needed to assess the contribution of these factors.

WHO: Cholera cases more than doubled in 2022 - New data released by the World Health Organization (WHO) today show global cholera cases more than doubled last year and are continuing to climb in 2023. The data show 472,697 cholera cases were reported to the WHO in 2022, up from 223,370 in 2021. The number of countries reporting cholera cases rose from 35 to 44. In addition, cholera outbreaks in 2022 were both more frequent and larger, with seven countries—Afghanistan, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Malawi, Nigeria, Somali, and Syria—reporting outbreaks of 10,000 people or more. Twenty-four countries are currently reporting active outbreaks, including Malawi, which is experiencing one of the largest outbreaks in its history. Multiple factors contributing to surge Cholera is an acute intestinal infection caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, which spreads through food and water contaminated with feces. Outbreaks tend to occur in places lacking clean water and sanitation. "Longterm development, including water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), is the longterm solution for preventing cholera," the WHO said. But the agency says the upsurge in extreme weather events linked to climate change, conflict, population displacement, and weakened healthcare systems are all playing a role in the rise in cholera activity. The WHO also said that the increased demand for cholera materials has forced cholera outbreak programs to use a single-dose vaccination regimen as opposed to the standard two-dose regimen.

Quick takes: Montana H1N2v flu case, Lithuania to ban fur farming, DRC battles suspected triple gastroenteritis outbreak | CIDRAP

Montana health officials have reported a variant H1N1 (H1N2v) infection in a patient younger than 18 who sought care the first week of August, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in itsweekly flu update. Investigators found that the person, who was not hospitalized, had attended an agricultural fair before symptoms began. The illness marks the nation's third variant flu case of the year. Earlier infections were reported from Michigan, one involving H3v and the other H1N2v.
Lithuania's parliament has approved a measure to ban fur farming, which awaits final approval from the country's president, according to a Finnish media report. Lithuania is Europe's third-biggest mink producer, behind Poland and Greece. Minks are known to be a potential mixing vessel for respiratory viruses, and the recent outbreaks at fur farms have intensified calls to shutter fur farms to due to pandemic risks.
Health officials in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are battling a gastroenteritis disease outbreak centered near the capital of Nairi department in the western part of the country that is swamping local health facilities, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in an outbreakannouncement yesterday. The illnesses involved suspected typhoid fever, shigellosis, and cholera, and since late June, officials have reported 2,389 suspected cases, 52 of them fatal. The city of Dolisie in Nairi department is the outbreak's epicenter, but five other departments in the DRC have also reported suspected cases: Bouenza, Brazzaville, Kouilou, Pointe-Noire, and Pool. Eighty-eight patients have undergone surgery for intestinal perforation, a known complication of untreated typhoid fever, which the WHO said is an unusually high level.

Global mpox spread continues at low levels, with hot spots in parts of Asia -Mpox activity continues at a low levels, with sustained transmission mainly occurring in the Southeast Asia and Western Pacific regions, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday in a monthly update.Since its last update in the middle of August, the WHO received reports of 1,131 new cases and 5 more related deaths, with a 1.3% rise in cases. Laos and Malaysia reported their first cases.On September 8, China reported a batch of 501 new cases that were recorded in August, similar to what the country reported in July. The WHO added that China has reported cases from 25 of 31 provinces and that the epidemiologic picture fits with the global outbreak pattern of transmission mainly in men who have sex with men. The WHO also noted that Thailand has also reported a significant rise in mpox cases in recent months, with cases expanding beyond Bangkok.In Africa, where mpox is regularly reported, cases declined during the reporting period, but the WHO said it's unclear if the drop is due to a decrease in cases or reporting delays.In May amid an ongoing drop in cases, the WHO ended the public health emergency of international concern for mpox, and in August, its emergency committee issued standing recommendations to help countries battle the virus.

Smallpox vaccine given years before 72% to 75% effective against mpox, data reveal --In a research letter today in the New England Journal of Medicine, researchers estimate that a smallpox vaccine dose given a median of 13 years earlier is 72% to 75% effective against mpox among US veterans.Researchers from Emory University and the Veterans Affairs (VA) Healthcare System conducted a retrospective, test-negative study involving 1,014 current and former military personnel with mpox symptoms tested for orthopoxvirus (eg, smallpox, cowpox, mpox) from July 1 to October 31, 2022.The researchers identified participants using Department of Defense electronic lab data and the VA Corporate Data Warehouse. From 2002 through 2017, more than 2.6 million military personnel received smallpox vaccinations (Dryvax, ACAM2000, or Jynneos, which is also approved for mpox) as part of their military deployment or occupational requirements."During the ongoing global outbreak of mpox (formerly called monkeypox), smallpox vaccines have been used to prevent infection and reduce the severity of disease in those at increased risk for infection," the study authors wrote. "However, the effectiveness of smallpox vaccines against mpox is unknown." A total of 184 participants (18%) had received a smallpox vaccine a median of 13 years before. Of the 293veterans (29%) who tested positive for orthopoxvirus, 3% had been vaccinated with Dryvax (first-generation smallpox vaccine), and 7% had received ACAM2000 (second-generation).Veterans vaccinated against smallpox were less likely to test positive for mpox than those with no record of vaccination (odds ratio [OR], 0.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.13 to 0.58 for Dryvax and 0.25 [95% CI, 0.15 to 0.42] with ACAM2000). Estimated vaccine effectiveness was 72% for Dryvax and 75% for ACAM2000.

Over 1,200 children have died in the past 5 months in conflict-wrecked Sudan, UN says — More than 1,200 children under age 5 have died in nine camps in war-scarred Sudan in the past five months because of a deadly combination of measles and malnutrition, the U.N.’s refugee agency said Tuesday. The UNHCR said the deaths, between May 15 and Sept. 14, were documented by its teams in the While Nile province, where thousands of Sudanese have sheltered as fighting has raged for six months between rival generals, in the capital of Khartoum and elsewhere. “Dozens of children are dying every day — a result of this devastating conflict and a lack of global attention,” said the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi. Sudan plunged into chaos in mid-April, when simmering tensions between the military, led by Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, and the powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, commanded by Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, exploded into open warfare.

Measles, malnutrition implicated in child deaths amid Sudan's deepening health crisis -- The United Nations Refugee Agency and the World Health Organization (WHO) today sounded the alarm about a deepening health crisis in war-torn Sudan, where about 1,200 children younger than 5 from nine refugee camps have died over the past 4 months due to a suspected measles outbreak and malnutrition.In a statement, Filippo Grandi, the UN's high commissioner for refugees, said the world has the means and money to prevent all of the deaths, which are the result of a devastating conflict and a lack of global attention. "We can prevent more deaths, but need money for the response, access to those in need, and above all, an end to the fighting."Shortages of staff, equipment, and supplies at Sudan's healthcare facilities are exacerbated by attacks on the facilities, patients, and the transport of medical supplies, the groups said, adding that the country is also battling cholera, dengue, and malaria outbreaks. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, the WHO's director-general, said, "We call on donors to be generous and on the warring parties to protect health workers and access to health for all those who need it."Neighboring countries receiving fleeing Sudanese refugees are seeing the impacts firsthand. South Sudan is reporting increasing numbers of children with measles and malnutrition arriving from Sudan, especially from White Nile state. In Ethiopia's Amhara region, a cholera outbreak is emerging at sites hosting more than 18,000 people who have fled the conflict in Sudan, with 8 deaths and 435 suspected cases amid low supplies of cholera vaccine. And health providers in Chad are reporting high levels of malnutrition in children among those who have fled Sudan.The two UN groups continue to provide urgent assistance in Sudan and neighboring countries, including food and measles vaccine distribution to children in camps in the countries Blue and White Nile states.

World leaders aim to get back on track in fight against tuberculosis -As heads of state gather today at the United Nations (UN) for the second high-level meeting on the fight against tuberculosis (TB), stakeholders are reminding them of the promises made 5 years ago, and the failure to live up to those promises.Many of the targets that were set in 2018 on TB prevention, care, and financing at the first UN high-level meeting on TB are far from being met. Part of that can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, which diverted resources away from the TB fight and disrupted countries' efforts to diagnose, treat, and prevent the disease.TB experts and advocacy groups say the failure to meet those targets cannot all be pinned on the pandemic, however. They suggest it's also a product of years of neglect by a world that has never seen TB—one of the world's leading infectious disease killers—as a priority. And they say now is the time for world leaders to live up to their promises and make some real headway."TB has always been a neglected disease," novelist John Green, who's become a vocal advocate for increased access to TB treatment, said at a press briefing held this morning at the UN by the Stop TB Partnership. "TB has been curable for 75 years, and we haven't done a nearly good enough job of getting the cure to where the disease is."The impact of the pandemic on the global TB picture cannot be overstated. The World Health Organization (WHO) 2022 Global TB Report shows an estimated 10.6 million people fell ill with the respiratory disease in 2021. That's up 4.5% from 2020, and the first time in nearly two decades that the number of TB cases has gone up. TB deaths were up as well, rising from 1.6 million to 1.7 million. Prior to the pandemic, TB cases and deaths had been steadily declining.The reduction in essential TB services that began in March 2020 and lasted through 2021 has played a significant role. In many high-burden countries, lockdowns and the shifting of health resources to the COVID-19 response meant fewer people with TB were diagnosed and treated, and fewer contacts of TB patients had access to preventive treatment, which is necessary for stopping the spread of the disease.A status update on progress toward the 2018 targets, released yesterday by the WHO, also highlights the effects of the pandemic. At the 2018 meeting, UN member states committed to treating 40 million people with TB between 2018 and 2022, but only hit 84% of that goal (34 million). Thirty million people were targeted for preventive TB treatment over the 5-year period, but only 15.5 million received it."Over the past 2 years we've lost incredible ground…reversing years of hard work," Atul Gawande, MD, MPH, the US Agency for International Development's assistant administrator for global health, said at the briefing.Funding is another area in which world leaders and global funding agencies have failed to live up to their promises. At the 2018 meeting, leaders set a goal of hitting $13 billion in annual global funding for essential TB services in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) by 2022. In 2022, the actual number was $5.8 billion. And 80% of that was from domestic sources.

PAHO issues dengue alert amid regional rises as Southern Hemisphere summer approaches -The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) recently posted an epidemiologic alert about a rise in dengue cases in Central America and the Caribbean regions, urging countries to review their response plans and step up surveillance ahead of the Southern Hemisphere's summer season.So far this year, about 3.4 million dengue cases have been reported in the Americas, exceeding the record 3.1 million cases recorded in 2019. Brazil by far has been the hardest-hit country in 2023, followed by Peru and Bolivia. Brazil has also reported the highest number of severe cases, followed by Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, and Mexico. So far this year, 1,612 dengue deaths have been reported in the Americas, putting the case-fatality rate at 0.05%.In Central and North America, Nicaragua has been the hardest-hit country this year, with cases 83% higher than the same period in 2022 and 1.87 times higher than the 5-year average. Mexico's cases this year are triple that of 2022 and are double the 5-year average. Cases are also above 2022 and 5-year averages in Costa Rica and Guatemala.In the Caribbean, the Dominican Republic, Martinique, and Guadeloupe have been the top hot spots, and in the United States, Puerto Rico has reported 374 locally acquired cases, with cases also reported in Florida and Texas.PAHO said the seasonal rise in activity and the onset of the rainy season in the second half of 2023 has burdened some healthcare systems in Central America and the Caribbean, a signal that countries entering their summer season prepared their health systems to cope.In related developments, Florida in its latest weekly surveillance update reported 4 more local dengue cases, raising the year's total to 23. Most cases this year were reported in Miami-Dade County, with a few in Broward, Hardee, and Polk counties. Two cases involved non-Florida residents.Of 22 subtyped samples, 17 infections were from dengue serotype 3, with 4 from serotype 2, 1 from serotype 1, and 1 from an unknown serotype.

Quick takes: H5N1 avian flu reaches Galapagos, Lyme disease funds, botulism in France | CIDRAP

Following the discovery of dead birds on several Galapagos Islands, samples were collected and three of five were positive for highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu in preliminary tests, according to information released by Galapagos National Park. The samples will be sent to the National Public Health Research Institute in Guayaquil on Ecuador's mainland for confirmation. Officials have closed affected sites to visitors and urged tour operators to take biosafety precautions. Technical teams from the Galapagos National Park Directorate and the Agency for Control and Regulation of Biosafety and Quarantine for Galapagos are monitoring the situation, including in endemic bird populations that include penguins and cormorants. Ecuador's Environment Minister Jose Antonio Davalos said officials will deploy all available resources to reduce the impact on the archipelago's unique ecosystem.
Two institutions have announced grants to fund work into the diagnosis and treatment of Lyme disease, with an emphasis on the management of patients with chronic infections. Yesterday Tufts Universityannounced $7 million in new grants, including more than $4.5 million from the Department of Defense (DOD) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to understand the underlying causes of chronic Lyme disease and to test a screening tool for diagnosing acute disease sooner. Veterinary researchers from the school received an $885,000 grant from Tarsus Pharmaceuticals to develop an oral drug that can be used to kill ticks that are feeding on humans. Other Tufts groups received grants from other sources to develop a test to predict chronic Lyme disease and to study the altered immune response. In a related development, Mount Sinai Hospital and School of Medicine today announced a $6.2 million research grant from the Steven & Alexandra Cohen Foundation to fund new research programs to explore the similarities and differences between long COVID and chronic Lyme disease and to expand the facility's clinical care center for patients with complex chronic illnesses.
The World Health Organization (WHO) today detailed a botulism cluster in France linked to eating homemade preserved sardines that has so far led to 15 infections, 1 of them fatal. Investigators found that the patients had eaten in the same restaurant in Bordeaux between September 4 and September 10, when the restaurant was serving Rugby World Cup fans. Of the 15 patients, 10 were hospitalized and 8 are in intensive care. Fourteen of the patients are from six countries outside of France. Botulism is a serious neurological condition caused by a toxin produced by Clostridium botulinum, which can develop in improperly preserved foods. The incubation, as long as 8 days, suggests that more cases could be identified, the WHO said.

South Africa battles high-path H7N6 avian flu in poultry - Outbreaks of highly pathogenic H7N6 avian flu that began at the end of May have led to the loss of about a quarter of South Africa's poultry, with layer farms hit hardest, according to a poultry industry official quoted in a South African agriculture publication.According to the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), the first outbreak began on May 29 in Mpumalanga province in the eastern part of the country. The outbreaks have spread to farms in four other provinces: Gauteng, Free State, Limpopo, and Northwest. Shahn Bisschop, DVM, who heads Avimune, a poultry veterinary service in South Africa, told media outlets that the H7N6 strain—new to the country—appears to be far more contagious than the H5N1 virus spreading in the rest of the world. He said South Africa is already experiencing egg shortages and may start to face meat shortages within 4 to 6 weeks. Animal health officials aren't sure if the onset of warmer weather during the Southern Hemisphere's summer season will slow the spread of the virus, and discussions are under way about emergency use of a vaccine to help the poultry industry recover.

Extreme plankton bloom creates marine 'dead zone' off eastern Thailand (Reuters) - An unusually dense plankton bloom off the eastern coast of Thailand is creating an aquatic "dead zone", threatening the livelihood of local fishermen who farm mussels in the waters. Marine scientists say some areas in the Gulf of Thailand have more than 10 times the normal amount of plankton, turning the water a bright green and killing off marine life. "This is the first that I've seen it so bad," said marine scientist Tanuspong Pokavanich. "It is very severe." Plankton blooms happen one or two times a year and typically last two to three days, experts say. They can produce toxins that harm the environment, or they can kill off marine life by depleting the oxygen in the water and blocking sunlight. Chonburi's coasts are famous for their mussel farms, and more than 80% of the almost 300 plots in the area has been affected, said Satitchat Thimkrajong, president of the Chonburi Fisheries Association. Fisherman Suchat Buwat's plot was one of those impacted. He said the bloom had caused him losses of more than 500,000 baht ($14,000), with his peers also racking up "unfathomable" losses. While the cause of the intense plankton bloom remains unclear, scientists believe pollution and the intense heat caused by climate change are to blame. "El Niño causes drought and higher sea temperatures," said Tanuspong. "Everything will get worse if we don't adjust how we manage resources, water waste and how we live." Earlier this year, a plankton bloom caused thousands of dead fish to wash up along a stretch of beach in Thailand's southern Chumphon province, with experts blaming climate change for stimulating the natural phenomenon. Worldwide, marine heatwaves have become a growing concern this year, with thousands of dead fish washing up on beaches in Texas and experts warning of algal blooms along the British coast as a result of rising sea temperatures.

Low Mississippi River limits barges just as farmers want to move their crops downriver (AP) — A long stretch of hot, dry weather has left the Mississippi River so low that barge companies are reducing their loads just as Midwest farmers are preparing to harvest crops and send tons of corn and soybeans downriver to the Gulf of Mexico.The transport restrictions are a headache for barge companies, but even more worrisome for thousands of farmers who have watched drought scorch their fields for much of the summer. Now they will face higher prices to transport what remains of their crops.Farmer Bruce Peterson, who grows corn and soybeans in southeastern Minnesota, chuckled wryly that the dry weather had withered his family’s crop so extensively they won’t need to worry so much about the high cost of transporting the goods downriver.“We haven’t had rain here for several weeks so our crop size is shrinking,” Peterson said. “Unfortunately, that has taken care of part of the issue.”About 60% of U.S. grain exports are taken by barge down the Mississippi to New Orleans, where the corn, soybeans and wheat is stored and ultimately transferred to other ships. It’s usually an inexpensive, efficient way to transport crops, as a typical group of 15 barges lashed together carries as much cargo as about 1,000 trucks.But as river levels drop, that cost has soared. The cargo rate from St. Louis southward is now up 77% above the three-year average.Prices have risen because the river south of St. Louis does not remain consistently deep enough now to accommodate typical barges, forcing companies to load less into each vessel and string fewer barges together.

USDA Corn Data Points to Lowest Ear Weights Since 2015 - The USDA September crop production report has come and gone, and the data was seen as somewhat negative given pre-report expectations. The 2023 U.S. corn yield came in at 173.8 bushels per acre (bpa) which was down from the 175.1 bpa given in August, though above the average trade guess of 173.8 and higher than last year's 173.3. Almost surprising is that corn yields have held up so well given crop ratings around Labor Day, the lowest since 2012. The jury is still out however as USDA will release subsequent reports next month, in November, with the annual figures due out in January 2024. There has been a lot of talk that the past month from mid-August to mid-September, which has featured above normal temperatures and rather sparce rainfall over much of the Corn Belt, has had an adverse impact on grain fill that could result in lower than usual corn ear weights. Note that the September report did include objective field surveys from USDA enumerators in addition to the results from the farmer-based surveys and data from remotely sensed satellites that formed the basis of the August numbers. On the other hand, the October and November reports will also include lab analysis measuring kernel weights that will give a more accurate assessment of both state and national corn yields. USDA-NASS did provide a slide in their crop production presentation showing the September 2023 Corn Objective Yield measuring ears per acre and yield for a 10-state region. As we have done in the past, this graph shows the 10-state objective corn ear population in ears/acre on the left-hand axis vs. the implied ear weight in lbs/ear on the right-hand axis. The 10-state weighted yield is also reported in the yellow rectangles. The ten states are IL, IN, IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, OH, SD and WI. The chart shows figures that match up very well with the USDA as their crop production report says the number of ears in the 10-state region was 29,400; we measure 29,413. The weighted ten state yield is 178.5 bpa which is what we have also. The 178.5 bpa yield is based in part on the fact that the 29,400-ear population is the highest ever but what is not included is the implied 10-state ear weight which we calculate to be 0.3398 pounds per ear which, based on our work, would be the lowest since 0.3358 lbs/ear back in 2015. Given the rapid dry down of this year's corn crop, this seems entirely reasonable so it will be interesting to see if the USDA lab results confirm this in subsequent reports.

World Corn Yield 2nd Largest Percent Drop From Trend in 20 Years -- Another year of less-than-optimal growing conditions has again resulted in the U.S. not seeing trend or higher corn and bean yields for a while even with enhanced genetics as weather continues to remain unfavorable here and also in many parts of the world. This is obviously not a favorable situation when global demand for various grain, oilseed and derived byproducts continues to increase, and an ever-larger share of total output is being diverted to energy as opposed to food purposes. We will be looking at trends in global yields of key crops over time and will start by looking at the world corn yields in metric tons per hectare (mt/ha). Plotted on the left-hand axis are the actual yields in mt/ha from 1978-2022 and three separate trend lines with 1978-1992 in orange, 1993-2007 in red and 2008-2044 in purple. The percent that the actual yield deviates from their respective 15-year trend line is reported on the right-hand axis. A couple of observations: this year's past global yield in the 2022/23 season was 5.73 mt/ha, the second lowest since 2017 and 3.0% below the latest 15-year trend, the second largest negative deviation from the world corn trend yield in 20 seasons, and we suspect below average crops in the U.S., Argentina, and the European Union largely responsible for this. Second is the fact that the upward trend in global corn yields appears to have slowed in the most recent 15-year period. From 1978 to 1992, global corn yields increased by an average of 0.48 metric tons per hectare and that increased in the next 15-year period to 0.78 mt/ha. However, in the latest 15-year period going through this past year, the increase in world corn yields had slowed to an average of 0.61 mt/ha, down 22.4% from the prior period which is likely one of the reasons why corn prices both here and abroad continue to hover well above their historical averages.

Over 22 000 ha (54 000 acres) of crops damaged by hailstorms and severe weather in Valencia, Spain - In a significant blow to Valencia’s agricultural sector, hailstorms, winds, and rain on Sunday damaged more than 22 000 ha (54 363 acres) of crops, causing an estimated loss of over 43 million euros. The most affected regions were Utiel-Requena and Camp de Túria. On September 17, 2023, La Unió Llauradora reported extensive agricultural damage across various regions in the province of Valencia. The loss, as per initial emergency assessments, stands at over 43 million euros. Citrus crops were particularly hard-hit, accounting for 43% of the total losses. They were followed by persimmon at 20%, and wine grapes at 16%. Interestingly, one-third of the anticipated grape yield in the affected municipality of Requena and its surrounding villages had been harvested prior to the event, partially mitigating losses. Olive groves made up 10% of the damaged crops, with ornamental crops and nurseries contributing 8%, and vegetables 7%. Areas in the regions of Camp de Túria and Utiel-Requena were among the worst affected, with up to 100% crop losses in some locales. The impact is not just limited to this year’s harvest; considerable damage to the trees themselves means repercussions will be felt for several years to come. The strong winds and rains further caused infrastructural damage and led to trees being uprooted. Producers had already been expecting a reduced harvest due to adverse weather conditions in the past months. The recent hailstorms have further diminished these expectations and a new storm forecasted for mid-week threatens to compound the crisis.

Idalia caused up to $371M in Florida agriculture losses: estimate - Hurricane Idalia caused the state of Florida between $78 million to $371 million in agriculture losses, according to a preliminary report from the University of Florida. Idalia came ashore as a Category 3 hurricane late last month, slamming Florida’s Big Bend region with heavy rainfall, a storm surge and strong wind gusts. The storm ripped through rural areas with crops like peanuts and cotton along with poultry, cattle and aquaculture operations. The preliminary report from the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences predicted losses between $30.9 million and $123.4 million in livestock alone. The report, shared with The Hill, also projected field and row crop losses to be between $30.7 million and $93.6 million, while damages to greenhouse and nursery products are projected to cost between $4.7 million and $68.8 million. The report found the hurricane had its greatest impact in six counties in northern Florida, including Madison, Hamilton, Lafayette, Taylor and Dixie, while tropical storm force winds impacted a greater swath of the Florida peninsula, going as far south as Charlotte County. Researchers said they were limited in assessing the damages on agriculture-related infrastructure, but found the storm had large effects on the state’s irrigation systems, fence lines and roofs of farm buildings. Idalia brought a storm surge of up to 11 feet, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, flooding the roadways and land. The region of Big Bend was far less prepared for hurricanes than other parts of the state, which have greater resilience to such intense storms. Experts told The Hill last month that the area was likely to face destructive flooding and ecological damage due to its lack of acclimation to tropical storms.Researchers said their estimates will narrow once on-the-ground assessments are completed.

Tropical Cyclone Lee brings high winds, power outages after making landfall in Canada - Tropical Cyclone Lee made landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada, and Maine Saturday afternoon, bringing high winds with gusts up to 70 mph and leaving more than 95,000 without power. The storm made landfall in Canada with near-hurricane strength and was expected to weaken as it moved toward New Brunswick, forecasters said. The Associated Press reported that Lee flooded coastal roads in Nova Scotia, took ferries out of service and knocked down power lines and trees. In Maine, it’s reported that nearly 96,000 customers are without power. “People are exhausted … it’s so much in such a small time period,” said Pam Lovelace, a council member in Halifax. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said this morning coastal flooding and heavy rains were “already occurring in portions of New England and Atlantic Canada.” Tropical storm watches and warnings were issued for many communities in the Northeast, stretching 230 miles along the coast. The storm, first forecasted to be a hurricane, was downgraded to a tropical cyclone early Saturday morning. Areas across the northeast have experienced extreme weather all week.

Climate change could bring more storms like Hurricane Lee to New England (AP) — When it comes to hurricanes, New England can’t compete with Florida or the Caribbean. But scientists said Friday that the arrival of storms like Hurricane Lee this weekend could become more common in the region as the planet warms, including in places such as the Gulf of Maine.One recent study found climate change could result in hurricanes expanding their reach more often into mid-latitude regions, which includes New York, Boston and even Beijing. Factors in this, the study found, are the warmer sea surface temperatures in these regions and the shifting and weakening of the jet streams — strong bands of air currents that encircle the planet in both hemispheres. “These jet stream changes combined with the warmer ocean temperatures are making the mid latitude more favorable to hurricanes,” Joshua Studholme, a Yale University physicist and l ead author on the study. “ Ultimately meaning that these regions are likely to see more storm formation, intensification and persistence.”Another study simulated tropical cyclone tracks from pre-industrial times, modern times and a future with higher emissions. It found that hurricanes will move north and east in the Atlantic. It also found hurricanes would track closer to the coasts including Boston, New York and Norfolk, Virginia and more likely to form along the Southeast coast, giving New Englanders less time to prepare.“We also found that hurricanes are more likely to move most slowly when they’re traveling along the U.S. East Coast, which causes their impacts to last longer and increase that duration of dealing with winds and storm surge, things like that. And that was, again, for cities that included New York City and Boston,”

Tropical storm developing off the SE coast of USA, landfall forecast in North Carolina - Meteorologists are closely monitoring a low-pressure system currently situated off the southeastern coast of the United States. Currently known as Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, the system is expected to strengthen into a full-fledged tropical storm by the time it makes landfall in North Carolina on Saturday, September 23, 2023. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey Friday through Sunday. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S. east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip currents. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect along a stretch of coast ranging from Cape Fear, North Carolina, to Fenwick Island, Delaware. In addition, Storm Surge Warnings have been issued for specific areas including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, as well as the lower Chesapeake Bay. At 09:00 UTC on September 22, the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen was located about 530 km (330 miles) ESE of Charleston, South Carolina and 525 km (325 miles) S of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The system had maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph), minimum central pressure of 1 000 hPa (29.53 inches), and was moving N at 22 km/h (14 mph).

Storm warnings issued for East Coast as winds pick up -- Tropical storm warnings have been issued for areas along the East Coast, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned of heavy rainfall starting Friday and continuing through Sunday. The maximum sustained winds reached 35 mph, as of 11 a.m. on Thursday, but the storm system is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm within the next day or two. A storm system with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph to 73 mph qualifies as a tropical storm. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for areas along the East Coast — from Cape Fear, N.C., to Fenwick Island, Del., including Albemarle Sound, Pamlico Sound and the southern portion of Chesapeake Bay. The NHC is warning of storm surges reaching up to 4 feet in some areas. “The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline,” the NHC wrote in its advisory. The tropical storm conditions are expected to reach North Carolina late Friday night, the NHC warned, and continue into the weekend. The storm system will also likely bring heavy rainfall, which “may produce localized urban and small stream flooding impacts.” Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey will see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts of 6 inches, the NHC wrote.

East Coast storm: Tropical Storm Ophelia makes landfall along North Carolina coast Saturday --Tropical Storm Ophelia is heading up the East Coast after making landfall near Emerald Isle, North Carolina, early Saturday, delivering heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding well beyond its center. Here are the storm’s latest impacts:

70,000-plus homes and businesses lost power across North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic Saturday morning, according to utility tracking site PowerOutage.us.
Storm surge flooding of more than 3 feet hit coastal North Carolina where water was seen covering roadways
States of emergency were declared in Virginia, North Carolina and Maryland
Two MLB games have been postponed: Braves-Nationals in Washington, D.C., and Diamondbacks-Yankees in New York

The tropical storm roared ashore around 6:15 a.m. with 70 mph sustained winds – just shy of hurricane strength. Tropical-storm force winds extend up to 320 miles from Ophelia’s core, the National Hurricane Center said.The storm had 50 mph winds as of 11 a.m. and will continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, but power outages could grow as it affects more areas.Ophelia is on track to move across eastern North Carolina and then travel through southeastern Virginia, before heading farther north across the Delmarva Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday, the hurricane center said.The storm’s shield of rain extends hundreds of miles from its center and is already dumping heavy rain across a large swath of the mid-Atlantic, including Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and New York.But coastal areas in North Carolina are bearing the brunt of impacts as the center of the expansive storm barges into the state.Storm surge flooded coastal areas and inlets in North Carolina overnight and winds gusting to 73 mph hit Cape Lookout, along the state’s Outer Banks.The flooding began on Friday, when roads were submerged in communities along North Carolina’s coast. In coastal Cedar Island, water collected on Highway 12, though it was open and passable, the state transportation department said.“But please don’t go out tonight unless you absolutely have to. There is sand and water on the roadway, and it’s dark and stormy,” the department said in a social media post.In New Bern, which sits along two rivers in North Carolina about 120 miles east of Raleigh, roads were flooded and water creeped inland as the levels rose in the downtown area, city officials said on Facebook. Photos posted on the city’s page show a flooded children’s park and ducks floating down the street on floodwaters.

Tropical Storm Ophelia blasts mid-Atlantic after North Carolina landfall as power outages climb – Powerful Tropical Storm Ophelia made landfall in North Carolina early Saturday morning at near-hurricane-force strength, lashing a large swath of the mid-Atlantic with blistering winds, heavy rains and dangerous storm surge.The center of Ophelia made landfall near Emerald Isle about 6:15 a.m. ET with maximum winds of about 70 mph, falling just short of reaching hurricane status, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). However, Ophelia's impacts stretch far beyond its center, with Tropical Storm Warnings covering 7 million people along the Eastern Seaboard as the storm bore down on communities east of Interstate 95.Tropical Storm Ophelia brings variety of threats to coastal communities across the East Coast. Two of these dangers are high wind and heavy rain.The U.S. Coast Guard said they had to rescue five people Friday from an anchored 38-foot catamaran beset by weather conditions caused by Ophelia within Lookout Bight in Cape Lookout. The NHC said an observation site in Cape Lookout reported sustained winds of 61 mph with a gust to 73 mph by Saturday morning.Several airlines, including Delta, United and Southwest, have issued travel advisories, warning of potential flight delays along the East Coast due to severe weather. At Norfolk International Airport, officials said five late arrivals Friday night and five early departures Saturday morning were canceled. Operations have since resumed.Winds on the Chesapeake Bay could be felt in Norfolk, Virginia, as powerful Tropical Storm Ophelia made landfall in North Carolina early Saturday morning at near-hurricane-force strength, lashing a large swath of the mid-Atlantic coast with blistering winds, heavy rains and dangerous storm surge. The fierce winds on the East Coast have also caused more than 50,000 power outages so far, and those numbers are expected to climb as the tropical-storm-force gusts cause property damage and topple trees and power lines.Winds from Ophelia were still whipping up the North Carolina coast in Nags Head at landfall. The footage below, captured by Katherine Forsht, shows the strong winds at Nags Head late Friday afternoon.

Natural disaster or man-made, why was Libya so vulnerable to floods? | Al Jazeera --The process of retrieving the bodies washing up on Derna’s shores continues, as the death toll carries on increasing.According to the Libyan Red Crescent, more than 11,300 are now confirmed to have died after Storm Daniel hit the eastern Libyan city on Sunday and Monday, leading to the failure of two dams, which burst and unleashed torrents of water through a dry riverbed and onto the city.The mayor of Derna says the death toll could be even higher – as much as 20,000 – after whole neighbourhoods were swept away into the sea.The water that rushed into Derna was described as looking like a huge tsunami.But while many, particularly some of Libya’s politicians, are painting what happened as purely the result of a natural disaster, experts say that corruption, poor maintenance of public infrastructure – and years of political infighting, with Libya divided between two rival administrations – have made the country unprepared to tackle an event like Storm Daniel.“The general state of turmoil also means a lot of bickering over the allocation of funds,” said Claudia Gazzini, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Libya. For the past three years there has been no development budget, which is where funds for infrastructure should fall, and no allocation for long-term projects, Gazzini said.“And none of the two governments is legitimate enough to make big plans, something that curbs focus on infrastructures,” she added.Military forces supporting Libya’s rival governments – an internationally recognised one based in Tripoli in the west and one based in Benghazi in the east backed by the country’s parliament – have fought several times since 2014, and the administrations failed to hold planned presidential elections in 2021.A concrete example of that lack of public investment is the dams in Derna, which failed catastrophically.Speaking to Al Jazeera on Tuesday, Derna’s Deputy Mayor Ahmed Madroud said that the dams had not been properly maintained since 2002. That means that both the government of Libya’s longtime dictator Muammar Gaddafi, and the administrations that came after he was overthrown in a revolution in 2011, had failed to ensure the upkeep of vital infrastructure.Last year, a paper from researchers at Omar Al-Mukhtar University warned that the two dams needed urgent attention, pointing out that there was “a high potential for flood risk”. Yet no action was taken.

Bodies found along eastern Libya coast after catastrophic flooding - (video) Rescue crews in the city of Derna pulled bodies from the sea days after flooding caused by Storm Daniel hit eastern Libya. The Libyan Red Crescent says thousands have been killed in the disaster.

Libya floods: What we know a week after the disaster – DW – 09/18/2023 - A week after a catastrophic flood devastated Derna, a coastal city in Libya, affected regions are still threatened by more dams breaking due to rising water levels. The disaster has claimed thousands of lives, and many remain missing. As the deceased are interred in collective burial sites, survivors are confronted with a challenging decision: whether to stay near the flooded region, risking infectious disease and water shortage, or to flee through areas where the torrential waters may have dislodged land mines. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) issued a warning on Saturday indicating that two additional dams in eastern Libya might be at risk of imminent failure due to rising water levels. This comes a week after Storm Daniel led to the collapse of the Abu Mansour and Derna dams, unleashing destructive torrents of water upon the city of Derna. The OCHA noted that there are "conflicting reports" surrounding the condition of the Jaza dam, situated between Derna and Benghazi, and the Qattara dam, located near Benghazi. Over the past five days, Libyan and international media have reported rising water levels and potential structural damages at these two dams, raising fears that another tragedy similar to the deadly flooding in Derna might occur. Nevertheless, some reports suggest that authorities have taken proactive measures to mitigate the risk, including installing pumps at the Jaza dam to alleviate the pressure on its structure and ordering the evacuation of nearby villages and towns. Claudia Gazzini, an analyst from the Crisis Group currently in the flooded areas, personally visited the Wadi Qattara dam on Thursday to assess the situation and provide clarity. She shared her findings via the social media platform X. "Given the disinformation circulating, today I decided to check in person on the state of Wadi Qattara dam near Benghazi," she wrote. Accompanying her tweet was a video from the dam suggesting the situation was under control. "See for yourself: all is fine," Gazzini wrote. The UN reported that more than 1,000 individuals have been laid to rest in communal burial sites, raising concerns among human rights groups about the potential psychological distress inflicted upon the families of the deceased. While some aid organizations worry that mass burials may heighten the risk of water contamination and the spread of infectious diseases, Melanie Klinkner, an international law professor at Bournemouth University, believes this is primarily the case when deaths are attributed to contagious diseases. "Dead bodies only pose risks if the deaths result from highly infectious diseases. It is, of course, possible for diseases to be transmitted by the surviving population due to inadequate sanitation," she told DW. However, "the distress the lasting mental health issues caused by the improper handling of human remains should not be underestimated as a health concern."

Storm Daniel’s extreme rainfall in Central Greece marked as a 1-in-200+ year event - Extreme rainfall from Storm Daniel led to catastrophic flooding in Central Greece earlier this month, described as a 1-in-200+ year event. The storm then moved on to cause massive flooding in Libya, resulting in over 11 000 fatalities.Daniel impacted Central Greece on September 4 and 5, 2023 before making its way to Africa. The event has been described as highly unusual, with World Weather Attribution classifying it as a 1-in-200+ year event for Greece.The most significant rainfall was recorded at Makrinitsa, Thessaly, where the total reached a staggering 1 235 mm (49 inches) in a 4-day span. Of this total, 757 mm (30 inches) fell in a single day. These are exceptional figures that highlight the unprecedented scale of the event.The storm system moved on toward Africa, slowing down and lingering off the Libyan coast on September 9. Satellite data confirmed Marquesa’s landfall just north of Benghazi around 01:30 UTC on September 10, with maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h (59 mph) and a central pressure of 995 hPa.The aftermath was catastrophic. Northeastern Libya, a region that typically sees an average annual rainfall of 25 mm (1 inch), was inundated with up to 406 mm (16 inches) of rain in 24 hours to September 10. During the same period, 240 mm (9.4 inches) of rain fell in Marawah in the District of Jabal al Akhdar, and 170 mm (6.7 inches) fell in Al Abraq in the Derna District. According to figures from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the city of Derna recorded 73 mm (2.9 inches) of rain in 24 hours to September 11.To put this in perspective, Libya receives an average annual rainfall of about 30 mm (1.18 inches). The wettest months are December, January and February with 13.26 mm (0.5 inches), followed by September, October and November with 8.28 mm (0.3 inches), March, April and May with 7.48 mm (0.29 inches) and June, July and August with 1.83 mm (0.07 inches).

Rainy season in Niger results in 41 deaths; Maradi Region worst hit - The ongoing rainy season, which commenced in early July, is inflicting extensive damage across Niger, leading to major flooding and overflows of the Niger and Komadougou rivers. As the water levels rise, reports confirm a mounting toll of casualties and property damage. To date, 41 individuals have tragically lost their lives, 53 have sustained injuries, and approximately 138 000 people have been adversely affected by the floods. Furthermore, the deluge has led to the destruction of over 12 000 houses across the region. The Maradi Region, located in southern Niger, bears the most significant brunt of the flooding, with an estimated 48 027 affected residents. Other regions facing severe consequences include Tillabéri with 31 806 affected, Agadez with 6 154, Dosso with 2 579, and Niamey, the capital city, with 94. National authorities, in conjunction with humanitarian partners, are actively engaged in relief efforts, ensuring that the affected population receives the necessary assistance.

Torrential rain triggers landslide in Lisal, northwestern DRC, killing 17 - Torrential rainfall in the town of Lisal, located in northwestern Mongala province, Democratic Republic of Congo, triggered a devastating landslide along the Congo River, resulting in the death of at least 17 residents. Authorities are on high alert, suggesting the death toll could further escalate as search and rescue operations continue amidst the debris of collapsed homes. Matthieu Mole, the president of the civil society organization Forces Vives, confirmed the tragic incident, explaining that the landslide predominantly affected homes situated at the base of a mountain. He remarked, “A torrential downpour caused a lot of damage, including a landslide that swallowed up several houses.” Mole further indicated that the current death toll is provisional, with the grim possibility of discovering more bodies buried beneath the rubble. In response to the calamity, Governor Cesar Limbaya Mbangisa emphasized the urgent need for machinery to expedite the removal of debris and potentially rescue survivors trapped underneath.

Destructive tornado outbreak hits Jiangsu, damaging or destroying 1 600 homes and killing 10, China - (several videos) On September 19, 2023, the northeastern coastal province of Jiangsu in China was struck by a significant severe weather outbreak, with multiple tornadoes causing damage to more than 1 600 homes and tragically claiming the lives of at least 10 residents. Several destructive tornadoes, part of a larger severe weather outbreak, tore through NE China yesterday, leaving a trail of devastation in their wake. Jiangsu Province experienced the most severe impact of the storm, with official reports confirming that over 1 600 homes were damaged or destroyed. The tragedy also claimed the lives of 10 individuals. A particularly strong EF3 tornado made landfall in Funing County. The Jiangsu weather bureau confirmed that this is the strongest tornado recorded in the area since the 2016 Funing EF4. The aftermath was grievous: complete annihilation of homes, vast expanses of farmland wiped clean, and trees stripped of their bark. One of the hardest hit areas was Banhu village which was hit by a powerful EF4 tornado 7 years ago. Two EF2 tornadoes touched down in Suqian, resulting in deaths of five individuals. Elsewhere, in Huaian, residents were left reeling from a series of unfortunate events: vehicles thrown askew, vast forests laid to waste, and homes reduced to rubble. While the final classification of the tornado that caused this damage is yet to be confirmed, Eric Wang, a Chinese extreme weather enthusiast, postulates that it may range between EF2 and EF3 based on his observation of the destruction. A broader understanding of the tornadoes’ complete impact, both in terms of human loss and infrastructural damage, will become clearer in the coming days.

Humanity has ‘opened gates to hell’ by letting climate crisis worsen, UN secretary warns -- Humanity has “opened the gates to hell” by allowing the climate crisis to worsen, the secretary general of the United Nations has warned at a climate summit of leaders that saw angry denunciations of the fossil fuel industry but was undercut by the absence of many of the biggest carbon-emitting countries. António Guterres opened the UN climate ambition summit, held in New York on Wednesday, with a lacerating attack on wealthy countries and the fossil fuel industry for their ponderous response to the climate crisis. The UN secretary general said the world is “decades behind” in the transition to clean energy. “We must make up time lost to foot-dragging, arm-twisting and the naked greed of entrenched interests raking in billions from fossil fuels,” Guterres said, adding that some fossil fuel companies had embarked upon a “shameful” attempt to stymie the transition. Wealthy countries need to get their planet-heating emissions to net zero as close as possible to 2040, Guterres said, a task that a recent UN analysis found is well off track, as well as deliver promised climate funding to poorer, vulnerable nations that has so far been lacking. “Many of the poorest nations have every right to be angry, angry that they are suffering most from a climate crisis they did nothing to create, angry that promised finance hasn’t materialized and angry that their borrowing costs are sky high,” he said. Guterres said that “humanity has opened the gates of hell” by unleashing worsening heatwaves, floods and wildfires seen around the world and that a “dangerous and unstable” future of 2.8C global heating, compared with the pre-industrial era, was awaiting without radical action. “The future of humanity is in our hands,” he said. “We must turn up the tempo, turn plans into action and turn the tide.” Leaders from more than 100 countries were asked to take part in the climate ambition summit, with invites extended to those the UN deemed “to have new, improved ambition on climate”. In a sobering indication of the shortfall in the required effort to avoid disastrous climate change, most of the world’s biggest carbon emitters were absent, including Joe Biden, president of the US, and Xi Jinping, president of China – leaders of the two largest polluters. Also absent was France’s Emmanuel Macron, India’s Narendra Modi and Britain’s Rishi Sunak, who has been the focus of intense criticism after he announced a watering down of the UK’s policies to reach net zero emissions. “Their absence is illustrative of the point we aren’t taking seriously the magnitude of the task right now,” said Kelly Sims Gallagher, dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University and a former White House adviser. “If we were serious, all of them would be at the table today. It’s concerning.” The summit itself contained some fiery denunciations of the fossil fuel industry, a stark contrast to previous diplomatic niceties that muted such criticism in previous UN forums. There was applause in the room when Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, said that “this climate crisis is a fossil fuel crisis”. “It’s not complicated. It’s the burning of oil. It’s the burning of gas. It’s the burning of coal. And we need to call that out,” Newsom said. “For decades and decades, the oil industry has been playing each and every one of us in this room for fools. They have been buying off politicians. Their deceit and denial going back decades, have created the conditions that persist here today.”

Rare “earthquake lights” reported before the destructive M6.8 earthquake in Morocco - (video) Ahead of a deadly magnitude 6.8 earthquake in Eastern Morocco’s High Atlas Mountains on September 8, 2023, unexplained lights were reported in the sky. While the phenomenon has historical roots and recent accounts, its authenticity and cause remain subjects of debate. Reports have emerged of unusual lights in the sky over Morocco preceding the tragic M6.8 earthquake that rocked the High Atlas Mountains on September 8, 2023. This catastrophic event resulted in the loss of approximately 2 900 lives and left around 5 500 injured. The lights, which some liken to the ancient accounts of “earthquake lights” or EQL have previously been documented, with instances as old as Grecian times. While existing footage of this recent occurrence is still undergoing verification, it’s worth noting that the phenomenon isn’t new. Thanks to the rise of social media platforms and smartphone technology, such reports might see an uptick in frequency. In fact, NOVA PBS highlighted the appearance of similar lights in 2021, right before an earthquake in Mexico City, and once again in Japan in 2022 preceding another seismic event. Following these accounts, there are other intriguing instances that stand out. Just moments before the L’Aquila earthquake in Italy in 2009, witnesses observed small flames of light, about 10 cm (4 inches) in height, dancing above the cobblestones of Francesco Crispi Avenue, situated in the town’s historic heart. Similarly, in 1988, 11 days prior to a significant tremor, an illuminating purple-pink orb traversed the sky alongside the St. Lawrence River near Quebec City. Going even further back, in 1906, a pair observed luminous trails skirting the earth’s surface two evenings before the major earthquake that shook the region approximately 100 km (62 miles) northwest of San Francisco. John Derr, a retired USGS geophysicist who co-authored several scientific papers on EQL, said there’s still no consensus on what causes them, but they are definitely real.

Strong explosive eruption at Shishaldin volcano, ash reaches 12 - On September 15, 2023, around 01:10 UTC, an explosive eruption at Shishaldin Volcano sent an ash-rich cloud soaring to an altitude of 12.8 km (42 000 feet), accompanied by volcanic lightning. The eruption followed a several-hour increase in seismicity. The Aviation Color Code and Volcano Alert Level were raised to RED/WARNING. The upper-level cloud detached from the vent around 02:30 UTC and was drifting towards the east. Beginning around 03:30 UTC, lightning resumed indicating continued ash emssions. At the time, the meteorological cloud deck over the volcano was over the volcano at about 6.8 km (22 500 feet) above sea level and ash emissions were not visible in satellite data. Explosions continued to be detected in infrasound data, at a lower level than during the most energetic phase of this event. Trace ash fall was reported in the community of False Pass between 02:00 to 04:30 UTC. The National Weather Service has issued a SIGMET for the drifting ash cloud, and a Special Weather Statement has been issued for trace ash on False Pass. Seismicity started decreasing rapidly around 02:30 UTC, but it remained elevated until 05:00 UTC. During this period of waning seismicity, volcanic lightning continued to be detected, indicating continued ash production. The last detection of volcanic lighting was at 04:48 UTC and seismicity has returned to pre-eruptive levels, indicating that significant ash emissions have ended. Thus, the Aviation Color Code and Volcano Alert Level were lowered to ORANGE/WATCH.

Taal Volcano smog blankets nearby towns and drifts toward Manila in the Philippines - (video) Smog from the Taal Volcano shrouded nearby communities and drifted toward the Philippines' capital Manila today. The thick haze caused alarm among residents and sparked class suspensions in Batangas province and neighbouring regions, including the Metro Manila area some 65 miles away, on September 22. Footage shows a blanket of volcanic gas reducing visibility and blotting out the sun. The Batangas Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office said volcanic smog has been affecting nearby towns in Batangas since the start of September. On Thursday, September 21, more than 40 students were hospitalised after complaining of chest pains, dizziness, and itchy throats and skin. Philippine seismological agency PHIVOLCS said there continuous gas upwelling was observed at the volcano's crater, with steam plumes reaching up to 2400 metres high. PHIVOLCS said: 'Vog (volcanic smog) has been affecting the Taal region since the first week of September 2023 as an average of 3,402 tons per day SO2 has been degassed from Taal Volcano for the month.' Residents have been urged to stay indoors, and to wear masks when venturing outside. The Taal Volcano is still under Alert Level 1, indicating low-level unrest without an imminent eruption. The Philippines is an archipelago of more than 7,000 islands inside the Pacific 'Ring of Fire' where the majority of Earth's volcano eruptions and earthquakes happen.

Philippines issues health warning as capital hit by smog, volcanic gas (Reuters) - A small but restive volcano near the Philippine capital Manila spewed above average sulfur dioxide and volcanic smog on Friday, prompting authorities to close schools in dozens of cities and towns and to urge people to stay indoors. The state volcanology and seismology institute said it observed upwelling of hot volcanic fluids in the Taal volcano's crater lake, resulting in the emission of volcanic gases. Heavy pollution also shrouded buildings in the capital region in haze. The alert remained at level 1 on a five-level scale, denoting a "slight increase in volcanic earthquake, and steam or gas activity". Located in a scenic lake in Batangas province near Manila, the 311-metre (1,020-foot) Taal is among the most active of 24 volcanoes in the Philippines. Kennard Kaagbay, a tricycle driver in the province, has complained of throat irritation from the volcanic smog. "It's bad for me to inhale the air because I have asthma. Our passengers don't go out as well because of the (smog), so we don’t get much passengers recently,"

Schools shut in Philippines after gases from Taal Volcano make children ill Volcanic smog has engulfed the Philippine capital Manila and its neighbouring provinces, forcing officials to shut schools and urge residents to stay indoors after reports of people falling ill. Authorities said there was no imminent threat of a major eruption of the restive Taal Volcano in Batangas province, south of Manila. But they said its emission of sulphur dioxide-laden steam in recent days has impacted dozens of students in nearby towns, causing skin, throat and eye irritation. Randy Dela Paz, operations section chief of the civil defence's southern Manila office, told DWPM radio they received reports of respiratory illnesses due to the volcanic smog. Classes were suspended in the capital region and in dozens of towns and cities in Cavite, Laguna, and Batangas provinces, with some schools resuming online classes and home learning that were in wide use at the height of the COVID pandemic. The aviation authority on Friday told pilots to avoid flying close to the volcano's summit. Images showed Manila and its surrounding regions shrouded in a haze as the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology said it had observed hot volcanic fluids in the volcano's crater lake, resulting in the emission of volcanic gases. It said the alert remained at Level 1 on a scale of one to five, denoting a "slight increase in volcanic earthquake, and steam or gas activity".

Two CMEs strike Earth, producing G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm - (video) Two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) impacted Earth on September 18, 2023, producing G3 – Strong geomagnetic storming. In 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on September 19, solar wind parameters were indicative of a likely transient arrival and passage early in the day, followed by an interplanetary shock arrival as measured at the DSCOVR spacecraft at 12:57 UTC on September 18. When the shock arrived, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) increased from 10 to 22 nT by 12:58 UTC. The Bz component was slowly rotating from south to north directed with the initial transient passage. There was little change in the Bz component with shock arrival and Bz remained mainly northward until about 16:00 UTC when it turned southward and reached a maximum deviation of -18 nT at 16:30 UTC. The Bz oscillated afterward. Solar wind speed had initially risen to 484 km/s by 02:07 UTC on September 18 with the first transient arrival before it decreased to ~425 km/s. Speed promptly increased with shock arrival from the second CME and reached about 550 – 560 km/s before it slowly declined and was at 500 km/s by 00:30 UTC on September 19. The phi angle was mostly in a negative sector. Solar wind enhancements are expected to continue throughout September 19 due to CME influences. It remains uncertain at this time whether the shock arrival at 12:57 UTC was an early arrival of the September 17 CME or a previous event. Current thinking is that this was likely the September 17 CME shock arrival and continuing disturbances are likely throughout the day. Waning CME influences will give way to weak CH HSS effects on September 20 and 21. The geomagnetic field reached G1 – Minor storm levels in response to the two CME arrivals. A sudden impulse (SI) occurred at 13:30 UTC and reached a deviation of 75 nT as measured at the magnetometer observatory in Wingst, Germany. The SI was in response to the shock arrival at Earth of the second CME arrival detected at the DSCOVR spacecraft at 12:57 UTC. The geomagnetic reactions associated with the SI resulted in a quick escalation to active levels. station-k-index september 19 2023 Geomagnetic K-index of 7 (G3 -Strong geomagnetic storm) threshold was reached at 05:59 UTC on September 19. Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.

Induced Currents – Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft – Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation – Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio – HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

Strong M8.7 solar flare erupts from Region 3435 - (video) A strong solar flare measuring M8.2 erupted from Active Region 3435 at 14:19 UTC on September 20, 2023. The event started at 14:11 and ended at 14:25 UTC. A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 1 054 km/s was registered at 14:25 UTC. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated with a flare event. While the location of this region does not favor Earth-directed CMEs, it’s possible a part of it is heading our way. LASCO coronagraph imagery is still not available. Analysis of the event is in progress. The region is rotating toward the center of the disk so Earth-directed CMEs are possible from this region in the days ahead.

Strong M8.2 solar flare erupts from Region 3435 - (video) A strong solar flare measuring M8.7 erupted from Active Region 3435 at 12:54 UTC on September 21, 2023. The event started at 12:42 and ended at 13:02 UTC. This is the second M8+ solar flare since M8.2 at 14:11 UTC on September 20. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in coronagraph imagery at approximately 13:53 UTC. Initial modeling of this event indicates a hit at Earth by late on September 24. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over eastern South America, Atlantic Ocean, western Europe, and most of Africa at the time of the flare. Region 3435 (beta-delta) still has enough energy to produce strong to major eruptions and it’s rotating toward the center of the disk — Earth-directed CMEs are possible in the days ahead. Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the next three days, with a 55% chance of M-class and a 5% chance of X-class solar flares. Influence from a negative polarity coronal hole (CH HSS) is likely to increase geomagnetic field conditions to active levels, with a chance for G1 -Minor storming periods on September 22. Continued unsettled to active levels are likely on September 23 due to the combined persistent effects from the CH HSS and the possible glancing blow from the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on September 20.

G1 (Minor) Storm Watch Now in Effect for 23 & 24 Sep 2023 --An M8.0 flare from AR 3435 registered at the GOES-16 satellite at 20/1419 UTC. Shortly thereafter a partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in coronagraph imagery provided by NASA’s SOHO mission. While the bulk of the eruptive material is expected to pass behind Earth’s orbit, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are still likely on 23-24 Sep 2023 with forecast High Speed Stream (HSS) conditions and flanking influences from this CME.

California sues five major oil companies for 'decades-long campaign of deception' about climate change - California is suing five of the largest oil and gas companies in the world, alleging that they engaged in a “decades-long campaign of deception” about climate change and the risks posed by fossil fuels that has forced the state to spend tens of billions of dollars to address environmental-related damages. State Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta filed the lawsuit Friday in San Francisco County Superior Court alleging that Exxon Mobil, Shell, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, BP and the American Petroleum Institute have known since the 1950s that the burning of fossil fuels would warm the planet but instead of alerting the public about the dangers posed to the environment they chose to deny or downplay the effects. “Oil and gas companies have privately known the truth for decades — that the burning of fossil fuels leads to climate change,” Bonta said in a statement, “but have fed us lies and mistruths to further their record breaking profits at the expense of our environment. Enough is enough.” Several other states and dozens of municipalities, including cities and counties in California, have filed similar lawsuits in recent years. “With our lawsuit, California becomes the largest geographic area and the largest economy to take these giant oil companies to court,” Bonta said. “From extreme heat to drought and water shortages, the climate crisis they have caused is undeniable. It is time they pay to abate the harm they have caused.” Bonta is seeking to create a nuisance abatement fund to finance climate mitigation and adaptation efforts; injunctive relief to protect California’s natural resources from pollution, impairment and destruction; and to prevent the companies from making any further false or misleading statements about the contribution of fossil fuel combustion to climate change. Attorneys for the oil companies could not immediately be reached for comment. But Chevron issued this statement early Sunday: “Climate change is a global problem that requires a coordinated international policy response, not piecemeal litigation for the benefit of lawyers and politicians.” A growing number of high-profile cases in state court helped pave the way for Bonta’s 135-page lawsuit to hold oil and gas companies financially responsible for their role in climate change and marketing products they know cause injury. They include the record $246-billion settlement with Big Tobacco, and a $350-million settlement reached in 2019 that will provide funds to clean up toxic lead paint sold by manufacturers that knew it was poisonous. “There is some commonality with earlier cases involving other major bad actors who hurt people and threatened their health with lead paint, tobacco and opioids,” Bonta said in an interview with The Times on Saturday. “But every industry is unique.” The potential size of the mitigation fund he is pursuing remains to be determined. “These defendants must be held accountable for the truths they shared in private

TVA studying carbon capture technology at natural gas plants in Kentucky, Mississippi --The Tennessee Valley Authority is launching a study on how to reduce carbon emissions at its natural gas plant in Muhlenberg County.The federal utility is exploring a partnership with TC Energy to add carbon capture technology at the Paradise Fossil Plant in Drakesboro. TVA has retired two coal-fired units there in recent years, and has a goal of shuttering its entire network of coal units by 2035.Reducing emissions at the Paradise Fossil Plant in Drakesboro will help TVA reach its goal of becoming net-zero by 2050.The $1.2 million study will determine the costs, technical challenges, and operational impacts of adding carbon capture technology to its entire fleet of natural gas plants. Spokesman Scott Fielder says doing so is important as TVA adds more solar to its energy portfolio.“Natural gas technology is the only mature technology as this time to ensure the reliability of the power grid when the sun isn’t shining, so we need to look at ways to reduce carbon from these existing facilities as we add more solar to the network," Fiedler said.The study will also explore carbon capture technology at TVA’s natural gas facility in Ackerman, Mississippi.Carbon capture works by sending exhaust from natural gas plants to a CO2 scrubber adjacent to the plant. A chemical reaction absorbs the CO2 before the exhaust is released into the air. The CO2 is then pumped deep into the earth for storage.

Texas bets on undersea carbon capture and storage, but doubts persist - Angling for a share of $12 billion in federal funding for such projects under the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, companies are competing to build carbon capture plants next to onshore oil wells, gas wells and other polluting facilities along the coast. At the same time, they are applying for offshore leases that will allow them to store that heat-trapping carbon dioxide deep beneath the seafloor.Crucial to the effort are a stream of U.S. government grants, followed by generous tax credits for every ton of carbon stored.In September 2021, the General Land Office, or GLO, awarded its first lease for carbon sequestration on 40,000 acres of state-owned land near Port Arthur to Talos Energy, a Houston-based oil and gas company. The oil giant Chevron has a 50% stake in theproject, known as Bayou Bend, which if completed could be the nation’s first offshore carbon storage site.Last month the GLO announced that it had awarded six more leases for offshore carbon storage that would generate $130 million in bonus payments for the state’s school fund. And in February, the Port of Corpus Christi, the nation’s top port for oil exports and an economic engine for Texas, said it had received $16.4 million in federal funding to conduct a feasibility study for both onshore and offshore carbon storage projects. The research will be conducted with Texas A&M University, the University of Texas, Talos and Howard Energy Partners, a San Antonio gas company.The GLO declined to provide details about the six offshore leases granted last month, from the location or size of the storage sites to the identities of the companies involved. Despite its August announcement that the projects had been greenlighted, the agency said the leases had not yet been formally “executed.”The oil and gas industry maintains that carbon capture and storage technology, or CCS, can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and hasten the nation’s progress toward net-zero status — the point at which the volume of heat-trapping gases released by power plants, oil refineries, factories and other major emitters would be equal to what is removed.But environmentalists and scientists argue that CCS does not live up to those claims. So far, the technology has yet to be widely deployed and the results have been mixed, meaning that emissions continue to increase even as billion-dollar plants for carbon capture and sequestration are built out.

North Dakota Regulator to Reconsider Summit CO2 Pipeline Project - North Dakota state's utility regulator has granted reconsideration for a carbon dioxide (CO2) pipeline project by Summit Carbon Solutions earlier rejected for concerns including safety. The North Dakota Public Service Commission (NDPSC) had rejected the permit application for the Midwest Carbon Express project due to "broad concerns" relayed to the regulator during public consultations, the agency said in a decision released August 4. The concerns span "eminent domain, safety, the policy of permanent CO2 sequestration and storage, setback distances, irreparable harm to underground drain tile systems, impacts on property values, and the ability to obtain liability insurance due to the project", the regulator's rejection announcement said. Summit had proposed for the pipeline to cross through the counties of Burleigh, Cass, Dickey, Emmons, Logan, McIntosh, Morton, Oliver, Richland and Sargent, according to the commission statement August 4. As part of its petition for reconsideration, Summit now said it would implement a reroute around the state capital, Bismarck. Summit had said the project would serve 12 ethanol plants in the company's home state of Iowa. While the $4.5 billion project would be based in Iowa, it targets permanent storage of CO2 underground in North Dakota, according to a Summit news release March 11, 2022. "In all, Summit plans to have 681 miles of pipeline routed through Iowa, running through 30 Iowa counties" while the entire length "measures just under 2,000 miles", that announcement said. Announcing the rejection of the permit application in August, the North Dakota regulator said, "Landowners and intervenors testified that the project would cause adverse effects on the value of their property and residential development projects… Landowners repeatedly testified that they had contacted Summit with requests for reroutes across their properties or other mitigation steps but heard nothing back from the company". The regulator also noted issues relating to eminent domain and safety but said that it had no jurisdiction over these aspects, which are overseen by the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration of the Transportation Department. Summit had also failed to address concerns by the North Dakota State Historical Preservation Office (SHPO), whose "concurrence is commonly required by the Commission for issuance of a siting permit", the NDPSC added. Furthermore, "The U.S. Geological Survey noted 14 areas of potential geological instability within the project corridor", it continued. "Summit has not submitted information to the Commission demonstrating how it has addressed these concerns". In a press release announcing the granting of the reconsideration, Summit said, "Subsequently, we rerouted around Bismarck, made adjustments to drill or bypass game management and geo-hazard areas, and collaborated with the State Historic Preservation Office to record the findings of cultural surveys".

Working from home could slash emissions by half, study finds - The Washington Post --Fully remote workers could produce less than half the climate-warming emissions of people who spend their days in offices, according to a new study published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.In an analysis of various work scenarios, people’s behaviors and sources of emissions, researchers found that switching from working onsite to working from home full time may reduce a person’s carbon footprint by more than 50 percent. Hybrid schedules where people work remotely for two to four days a week could also cut emissions by 11 to 29 percent, according to the study.The findings help shed more light on the factors that can influence theenvironmental and climate effects of different work models, said Longqi Yang, an applied research manager at Microsoft and one of the paper’s authors.“The remote work has to be significant in order to realize these kind of benefits,” Yang said. “This study provides a very important data point for a dimension that people care a lot about when deciding remote work policy.”To conduct the analysis, the study’s authors drew on multiple data sets, including the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Residential Energy Consumption Survey and Microsoft’s employee data on commuting and teleworking behaviors. The researchers, several of whom are Microsoft employees, modeled greenhouse gas emissions of U.S.-based employees working entirely remote, on hybrid schedules and fully onsite. The analysis focused on emissions from a variety of sources, including residential and office energy use, commuting, non-commute-related travel and IT usage.The study found that working remotely more than one day per week could cut emissions, mainly driven by less office energy use and commuting. But the researchers cautioned against assuming that any amount of remote work could be good for the planet.“This is a very complicated system,” said Fengqi You, a professor of energy systems engineering at Cornell University and another author of the paper.For instance, the results suggest that a hybrid model allowing employees to only work one day from home produces a negligible reduction in emissions because the benefits would likely be offset by factors such as more non-work-related travel and home energy use.“Realizing the environmental benefits of remote work requires careful configurations of lifestyle, home and office, and coordinated sustainable practices and incentives across individuals, companies, and policymakers,” the authors wrote in the study.

Putting a halt to geoengineering — by accident - On the Catalyst with Shayle Kann podcast this week: Solar geoengineering is a hot (er, cool?) topic these days. One method involves injecting a form of sulfur into the atmosphere to reflect solar radiation and help reduce global temperatures. But it could also cause unpredictable changes to ozone, rainfall and ecosystems. So when a rogue startup began sending balloons of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere earlier this year, it sparked outrage.But here’s the thing: We’ve been geoengineering our atmosphere for decades, just not intentionally. Scientists have long known that sulfur-dioxide emissions from maritime shipping have a cooling effect on the atmosphere. They brighten clouds and reflect more solar radiation. We’ve also known that sulfur dioxide is a toxic air pollutant that causes tens of thousands of premature deaths per year. So in 2020, when the International Maritime Organization, which regulates shipping, required ships to drastically cut their sulfur-dioxide emissions, it reduced air pollution. But it also unintentionally warmed the surface of the oceans.How big of a deal is this?In this episode, Shayle talks to Dan Visioni, a climate scientist and assistant professor at Cornell University’s Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. They cover topics including

The mechanism behind marine cloud brightening and how it differs from stratospheric sulfate injection.
Why the warming effect was so strong in the North Atlantic in particular.
What we still don’t understand about the impact on global mean temperatures and regional weather, such as heat waves and hurricanes.
What this accidental experiment teaches us about how to conduct a deliberate geoengineering experiment.

How an Indiana County biodigester could turn manure to gas to the real cash cow: carbon credits --Pennsylvania is too hilly and too fragmented to run manure pipelines, like they do in Ohio and Wisconsin, where some biodigester developers are turning cow manure into pipeline quality natural gas.So a new project in Center Township, Indiana County, will truck the "fuel" from a few dozen farms, extract the methane, and return the cleansed cow poop as a solid for bedding and a liquid for fertilizer.It promises an 80% reduction in odor, giving birth to the project’s internal motto: “Our s—t don’t stink.”That’s enough for Wayne Frye, a dairy farmer near Greensburg who signed up most of his 800-cow herd for the effort.They had him at smell reduction, he said: “They can keep the gas.”The gas isn’t even the most valuable commodity in this new venture from French industrial gas giant Air Liquide. The money is in something more ephemeral: avoided greenhouse gas emissions.Biogas produced from waste qualifies for carbon credits, which today sell for many times more than the gas itself.About 80% of the revenue from the biodigester project in Indiana County will come from carbon credits, said Luca Sirugo, CEO of Texas-based engineering and construction firm Gruppo, which is building the facility for Air Liquide. The credits are sold to companies that are either required to offset their emissions or use them toward corporate environmental goals.Biomethane is identical in composition to the gas pulled from shale, but it’s produced through the accelerated decomposition of organic matter — including food scraps or manure. Because of that, it is also referred to as renewable natural gas, which, in turn, can also qualify for renewable energy credits.As with landfill-based waste-to-energy systems, anaerobic biodigesters are seeing substantial growth in the U.S.“These projects are very profitable. Extremely, extremely profitable,” said Brian Kalt, director of renewable natural gas services with Warrendale-based Venture Engineering & Construction, who is not involved in the effort in Indiana County.Venture has built biodigesters across the country, but none in Pennsylvania because, as Mr. Kalt said, the farms tend to be smaller and the terrain is an issue for pipelines.But with a large buildout in recent years inspired by government subsidies for biomethane, all the low-hanging fruit — such as large farms on flat land — are already taken, he said.A community-scale biodigester that trucks manure from smaller farms in the region is the logical next phase.

Revealed: top carbon offset projects may not cut planet-heating emissions -The vast majority of the environmental projects most frequently used to offset greenhouse gas emissions appear to have fundamental failings suggesting they cannot be relied upon to cut planet-heating emissions, according to a new analysis.The global, multibillion-dollar voluntary carbon trading industry has been embraced by governments, organisations and corporations including oil and gas companies, airlines, fast-food brands, fashion houses, tech firms, art galleries and universities as a way of claiming to reduce their greenhouse gas footprint.It works by carbon offset credits being tradable “allowances” or certificates that allows the purchaser to compensate for 1 ton of carbon dioxide or the equivalent in greenhouse gases by investing in environmental projects that claim to reduce carbon emissions.But there is mounting evidence suggesting that many of these offset schemes exaggerate climate benefits and underestimate potential harms.In a new investigation, the Guardian and researchers from Corporate Accountability, a non-profit, transnational corporate watchdog, analysed the top 50 emission offset projects, those that have sold the most carbon credits in the global market.According to our criteria and classification system:

A total of 39 of the top 50 emission offset projects, or 78% of them, were categorised as likely junk or worthless due to one or more fundamental failing that undermines its promised emission cuts.
Eight others (16%) look problematic, with evidence suggesting they may have at least one fundamental failing and are potentially junk, according to the classification system applied.
The efficacy of the remaining three projects (6%) could not be determined definitively as there was insufficient public, independent information to adequately assess the quality of the credits and/or accuracy of their claimed climate benefits.
Overall, $1.16bn (£937m) of carbon credits have been traded so far from the projects classified by the investigation as likely junk or worthless; a further $400m of credits bought and sold were potentially junk.

The 50 most popular global projects include forestry schemes, hydroelectric dams, solar and wind farms, waste disposal and greener household appliances schemes across 20 (mostly) developing countries, according to data fromAlliedOffsets, the most comprehensive emissions trading database, which tracks projects from inception. They account for almost a third of the entire global voluntary carbon market (VCM), suggesting that junk or overvalued carbon credits that exaggerate emission reduction benefits could be the norm.In our analysis, a project was classified as likely junk if there was compelling evidence, claims or high risk that it cannot guarantee additional, permanent greenhouse gas cuts among other criteria. In some cases, there was evidence suggesting the project could leak greenhouse gas emissions or shift emissions elsewhere. In other cases, the climate benefits appeared to be exaggerated or the project would have happened independently – with or without the voluntary carbon market.

Markey, Ocasio-Cortez ask Biden to create Civilian Climate Corps by executive order - Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), two of Congress’s most vocal proponents for aggressive climate action, on Monday called for President Biden to establish a Civilian Climate Corps (CCC). The CCC had been a key element in early versions of the Build Back Better Act, the sweeping environmental and infrastructure bill. It was not ultimately included in the slimmed-down Inflation Reduction Act, which nonetheless was the largest climate bill in U.S. history. Biden was a vocal backer of the CCC early in his presidency, comparing it to the Civilian Conservation Corps introduced during the presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The original legislation called for $10 billion to launch the program. In the letter, timed to the 30th anniversary of the bill that created Americorps, Ocasio-Cortez and Markey cited polling indicating the idea has more than 60 percent support. The two have also reintroduced a bill to establish a corps legislatively, though the measure will almost certainly not be given a vote in the Republican-majority House. “A central coordinating body, overseen by the White House, will be essential to create a successful and cohesive Civilian Climate Corps,” they wrote. “Through interagency collaboration, as well as coordination with state climate corps, other state entities, and local non-profit organizations, your Administration can realize the vision of a Civilian Climate Corps that establishes a unified front in the face of climate change — one that looks like America, serves America, and puts good-paying union jobs within reach for more young adults.” The letter is also signed by members of Democratic congressional leadership like Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.). Also on Monday, a coalition of more than 50 progressive and environmentalist groups sent a separate letter calling on Biden to establish the CCC, citing its popularity among younger voters in particular.

Tesla and EV supply chains raise concerns about forced labor in China - Tesla boasts that its electric vehicles are a marvel not just of innovation but also ethics, pledging in annual reports that it will “not knowingly accept products or services from suppliers that include forced labour or human trafficking in any form.” The carmaker touts its teams of monitors that travel to mining operations around the world, and has pledged to mount a camera at an African mine to prevent the use of underage or slave labor. But Tesla has been conspicuously silent when it comes to China, despite evidence that materials that go into its vehicles come from the Xinjiang region, where forced labor has been rampant. Firms that appear to undermine a U.S. ban on products made in Xinjiang emerge near the top of Tesla’s sprawling network of suppliers, according to a Washington Post examination of corporate records and Chinese media reports. Among them are companies that have openly complied with China’s quotas for moving minority Muslim Uyghurs out of rural villages and into factory towns through what Chinese authorities call “labor transfers” or “surplus labor employment.”Tesla is among several EV companies that have suppliers with Xinjiang connections, records show. Ford has a deal with a battery maker that congressional investigators allege has ties to vast lithium mining and processing operations in Xinjiang, and Volkswagen operates a factory in the region with a Chinese partner.Though not all labor in Xinjiang is forced, China’s lockdown on information flowing from the region led the U.S. government last year to bar the import of any Xinjiang-made parts and products out of a concern they could be made with coerced labor. The companies’ kid-glove approach on China and potential violations of U.S. law come as the White House and powerful congressional committees scrutinize the EV industry, which is booming as automakers race to gain the upper hand in the transition to climate-friendly battery-powered engines. The situation in Xinjiang is a key point of tension in the strained relationship between China and the West, as the United States and allies step up enforcement of penalties on industries operating there. EVs are widely considered vital for confronting climate change, and the companies that make them are at an inflection point. The contracts and accountability measures they lock in now could affect communities around the world for decades. Many experts warn that companies are failing to ensure that their supply chains are free of forced labor, washing their hands of responsibility for upstream suppliers they shrug off as out of their managerial reach. “We know from every other industry there is that if we don’t fix this now, in the early days of this transition, it will be a massive mistake,” said Duncan Jepson, a lawyer and supply-chain management expert. “But the auto companies are not giving much hope they are willing to do anything to make a difference.”

The US is building power lines faster, but not fast enough --The U.S. needs a lot more power lines to support its transition away from fossil fuels.The good news is that it’s made some serious strides toward that goal over the last two years. The bad news is it’s not nearly enough to support the enormous amounts of new wind and solar power needed to meet climate goals. So says a new report from consultancy Grid Strategies and commissioned by trade group Americans for a Clean Energy Grid (ACEG), which counts 36 high-voltage transmission projects primed to start construction across the country in the near future. That’s 14 more “ready-to-go” projects than Grid Strategies identified in a similar report in 2021— and if they can be built, they could make significant improvements in the country’s grid reliability and clean energy needs. The 36 projects on the list include high-voltage direct-current lines to carry power from onshore wind farms in Great Plains states and offshore installations along the Atlantic coast. They also include networks of high-voltage alternating-current lines to link renewables-rich areas to population centers in California, New York and the Great Lakes states. Collectively, the projects represent $64 billion in investment, with the potential to create 1.3million direct construction jobs and another 2 million jobs building the estimated 187 gigawatts of new renewable energy capacity they would enable. But these 36 projects, which will likely take many years to complete, are only a starting point for the power grid’s transformation. While they could expand U.S. transmission capacity by about 15 percent when built, that’s less than 10 percent of the investment needed to reach a zero-carbon grid. Studies from the U.S. Department of Energy, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Princeton University have found the country must roughly double its existing transmission capacity to cost-effectively support all the clean energy needed to reach a carbon-free grid.

Big Role for Natural Gas, Oil as World Transitions to Lower Carbon, Says Wood Mackenzie -- Global energy demand is set to rise as income and population grow, with natural gas, oil and coal in 2050 still meeting more than half of total consumption, in part because of the high cost of new technologies, according to Wood Mackenzie. The consultancy’s 2023 Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) highlights the “energy challenge trinity” impacting the world over the next quarter century, which it defines as security, sovereignty and sustainability. “Oil and gas will still have a role to play as part of a managed transition,” Wood Mackenzie’s Prakash Sharma, lead author, said. Sharma is vice president of Scenarios and Technologies Research.

The state of fracking in Ohio - WOSU News (51 minute radio program) Hydraulic fracturing, better known as fracking, has proliferated over the last two decades as oil and gas companies drill all over the U.S. to find needed reserves.The Marcellus and Utica shale formations, which lie, in part, under the hills of eastern Ohio, are two of the most important sources of natural gas in the country.Oil and gas companies flocked to that area of the state, setting up extraction operations in some of the most impoverished areas of Appalachia, and promising profits and jobs.Has fracking delivered?Now there’s a fight over efforts to drill under Salt Fork State Park and other state-owned lands – a state commission on Monday voted for a reprieve – of sorts.We discuss the state of fracking in Ohio. Host: Mike Thompson, WOSU chief content director of radio. Guests:

Jake Zuckerman, reporter, Cleveland.com
Robert Wirkner, Carroll County commissioner
Rob Brundrett, president of the Ohio Oil and Gas Association
Randi Pokladnik, retired scientist, Save Ohio Parks

If you have a disability and would like a transcript or other accommodation you can request an alternative format.

Falsified public comments loom over Ohio state parks drilling - An Ohio commission is poised to rule on proposals to drill under state parks and wildlife areas before the conclusion of an investigation into fabricated public comments submitted in favor of the proposals.The Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission deferred a decision Monday in order to allow more time to consider the lease conditions proposed by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. Chair Ryan Richardson said the commission still plans to make final decisions before the end of the year.The process is playing out despite claims by more than 150 Ohio residents that their names and addresses were used without their knowledge or consent on pro-fracking public comments submitted to the commission. Critics say that alleged fraud, along with proposed below-market royalties, raise questions about whether the commission can fairly comply with statutory criteria for approving parcels for fossil fuel development.“The falsified comments raise a lot of concerns about the already questionable efforts to drill in Ohio state parks,” said Ericka Copeland, state director for the Sierra Club of Ohio. “It’s reprehensible and it’s undemocratic.”House Bill 507 jumpstarted the leasing process after lawmakers passed it last winter without any hearings on the law’s oil and gas provisions. A constitutional challengeremains pending in state court, but roughly a dozen leasing proposals have already been under review by the state land management commission. The commission approved four proposals for Department of Transportation properties on Monday. The rest under review are Department of Natural Resources properties.A Cleveland.com and Plain Dealer investigation this month showed dozens of pro-fracking comments on the proposals were submitted without their purported authors’ knowledge or consent. By Sept. 15, approximately 150 comments of roughly 1,000 form-letter emails had been contested, an update shows.In response, a Sept. 15 letter from 19 environmental and consumer groups urged the leasing commission and the Ohio Department of Natural Resources to delay decisions or deny any proposals for drilling under Ohio public lands until after a thorough investigation to verify and correct the public record.“That’s the concern — the timetable here,” Copeland said.The advocacy groups’ Sept. 15 letter also asked the Ohio attorney general’s office for a full investigation and any necessary action to protect against deceptive use of Ohioans’ information to influence public processes.“The attorney general takes these allegations seriously and has assigned investigative staff to look into the matter,” said deputy press secretary Dominic Binkley at Ohio Attorney General David Yost’s office. He declined to disclose information about the investigation’s expected timeline or whether the attorney general would support the denial or delay of approvals before it concludes.“The commission is determined to follow the statute as it carries out the land leasing process as required by Ohio Revised Code. That includes administering an open public comments period that does not infringe on Ohio law or First Amendment rights,” said ODNR spokesperson Andy Chow. “Meanwhile, the commission is currently working on creating a public comments portal where people can directly submit their comments to the website with additional authentication tools.”

Fracking under Ohio state parks on agenda for the first time at Monday meeting - -- On Monday, as directed by state legislators, the Ohio Oil & Gas Land Management Commission will consider nominations of fracking sites, from which drilling under the entire park and adjoining wildlife areas would be conducted."That final decision to approve or disapprove a nomination must happen within 180 days (two calendar quarters) of receipt," said Andy Chow, Ohio Department of Natural Resources spokesman."Should a nomination be approved by the commission, the nomination would then be put out to bid the following calendar quarter (as required in statute). This gives any party the opportunity to place a bid for the mineral leasing rights for the parcel that was nominated and approved."Numerous environmental groups asked the commission Friday to postpone the meeting in light of dozens of allegedly faked letters of support that Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost is probing.The Ohio Department of Natural Resources doesn’t oppose the proposals but wants additional restrictions to protect the 20,000-acre park. Some of the wellpads would be as close as 400 feet from the park boundary. Rob Brundret, president of the Ohio Oil and Gas Association, said the rigs that will drill down, then horizontally deep under the park, will be present for a few weeks. Afterward, the drilling site should be almost unnoticeable. "All you might see is a pickup truck once a day or a couple times a week going out and checking on the well, making sure everything is operating as efficiently as possible, and really all you have there are some tanks in the wellhead," he told ABC 6. He said that most of the public doesn’t know that wellpads already exist close to state parks -- the drilling now just goes the other way."We think Ohioans will still be able to enjoy all of the benefits that the state parks offer," Brundret said. "I think the industry knows and will continue to work with the (Gov. Mike) DeWine administration to ensure that there's no on-the-ground disruptions in any of the parks."The lands controlled by the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District have been fracked for years, and the public still uses those areas for outdoor recreation without any problems.But with hundreds of square miles already available for fracking, why the need to drill under state parks and other public lands?"For a global macro perspective, it's incredibly important to make sure that the United States and Ohio has the energy, the affordable and abundant energy, to continue to operate as a country, whether that's through our electricity creation, for other power needs, for the products we use every day. And so it's important that we make sure that we have these abilities to do that, not just in Ohio, but in the other states where we have these resources," he said."A lot of people want to talk about climate change and emissions and carbon reductions. You know, one of the things that we've done as an industry is look, you know, we think that one of the greenest things you can absolutely do is reduce the world on foreign coal and produce more natural gas." About 30 miles northeast of Salt Fork, chemist and environmental scientist Randi Pokladnik offers what she calls “toxic tours” of the heart of Ohio fracking country. While fracking proponents brag about its safety, Pokladnik cites blown-out wellheads and a 2014 fire in Monroe County for which the company was fined $223,000. "I mean, it looked like they dropped an atomic bomb on this well pad. Everything that was on it was burned and just ... got obliterated. It was such a hot fire. I think that they didn't even send firefighters in because they said it's too dangerous. Just let it burn." And while some individual landowners have gotten rich, she told us the fracking boom hasn’t been the economic boon some claim. "I mean, if you're a truck driver with a CDL, and you can weld -- well, they're two (jobs) that local people can do. But that's a young person. That's not somebody in their 50s and 60s. They're not going to make a living in that. They can't physically do it," she said. Since fracking came on the scene, she said, several eastern counties are among those losing the most population in Ohio. "All the big fracking counties are in the top 10 for losing population. So you know that just shows you how this false claims of jobs is just what it is, false."

Panel allows drilling on some Ohio-owned lands but delays vote on leases in state parks | The Statehouse News Bureau - As dozens of anti-fracking activists watched, an Ohio Department of Natural Resources panel voted to let companies bid on rights to drill in four parcels of state-owned land. But the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission postponed voting on drilling in state parks to its next meeting. As activists shouted "shame" and "yes men," votes on nominations for leases to drill on land owned by the Ohio Department of Transportation went forward. The four parcels of land are public rights-of-way near state routes in eastern Ohio. The vote from the commission means drilling companies have the next three months to bid on the leases. When the open-bid period closes, the commission must then select the highest and best bid. But votes on leases in Salt Fork State Park, north of Cambridge, Wolf Run State Park, south of Cambridge and Zepernick Wildlife Area, east of Canton, were tabled until the commission's next session to allow time for some legal questions to be answered. A spokesman with the Ohio Oil and Gas Association said that’s fine. “There's no rush here. We've been at this since 2011. And so it's important to get it right and get it right the first time," said Michael Chadsey, who was in the packed room for the meeting. "That will give them time to do their research and have their conversations and talk with the DNR and talk with the industry about how's the best, what's the best plan to move forward." While the decision to put off votes on leases for drilling in state parks may have seemed to be a relief to the activists, they aren't pleased. “I'm not happy because our campaign was to get denials on all the nominations - ODOT [land], the parks, the wildlife areas. So I'm not satisfied with that," said Roxanne Groff with Save Ohio Parks. "To me, it just looks like a pathway to go ahead and do approvals on all the nominations." But commission chair Ryan Richardson said she doesn’t think state law allows the panel to block opening up state lands for oil and gas exploration. "There is authority to disapprove, as I said during the meeting," Richardson said. "But I feel like that the statute is pretty clear that it is only for the considerations that are in the statute that we have the authority to deny." Some of the nine things that are in that state law, Richardson said, are "open to additional debate and consideration," which is why the votes were tabled. Those considerations include economic benefits, environmental or geological impact, impact to visitors or users of land or public comments. Certain information about companies that hope to win the leases to drill on state land is confidential and can't be disclosed at this point. Some in the room called for the commission to allow public input. The public comment period on these nominations closed several weeks ago, and Richardson said this meeting was not the forum for comments. “Certainly public comments are very important and something that we can and do consider," Richardson said. "But our criteria is set out in the statute of what we're supposed to consider with respect to individual nominated land.” Richardson also briefly commented on the letters that came in supporting drilling with the names of people who didn’t authorize them or support it. "As soon as those concerns were brought to our attention, we did share those with the attorney general's office, which we think is the appropriate body to investigate those," Richardson said. "There will be an investigation and so we will certainly cooperate with that and continue as we have to share any information that we have that might be relevant to their investigation."

Pro-fracking public comments in Ohio stem from 'misleading' ads - In July, Ohio regulators received nearly 2,000 public comments that implored them to allow fracking in state parks, saying it would address soaring energy prices. “Ohioans, like me, have been burdened by rising energy costs,” wrote a commenter identified as Nancy Shankin. “It is critical that we utilize the abundant natural resources available to us right here in Ohio, not only to bring costs down, but to support our local economy.”Yet Shankin lives in Michigan, not Ohio, public records show. And environmentalists say her comment — and nearly 2,000 others like it — can be traced back to misleading Facebook ads from an organization with alleged ties to the natural gas industry.The organization, Ohio’s Energy Future Coalition, paid forFacebook ads that asked people to sign a petition to “support affordable domestic energy.”The Facebook ads took viewers to the coalition’s website, where they could sign a petition to “support permits to access Ohio’s abundant and affordable homegrown energy.”

The petition did not mention that the Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission was weighing whether to open state parks and wildlife areas to fracking, the controversial and lucrative process of extracting natural gas from deep rock formations.
Yet once someone signed the petition, the coalition submitted a public comment in their name asking the commission to allow fracking in Salt Fork State Park, the largest state park in Ohio, according to environmentalists who signed the petition to confirm this chain of events.

Cathy Cowan Becker, a co-founder of the environmental group Save Ohio Parks, said the Facebook ads were “misleading” and may have tricked people into submitting a pro-fracking comment to state regulators.“Those people filled out a form thinking they were signing a petition for lower gas prices, but not understanding that they were filing a public comment in support of fracking at Ohio state parks,” Becker said.

Fraud Allegations in Ohio Public Lands Fracking Controversy > As Ohio moves forward with leasing public lands for oil and gas fracking, allegations that supporters filed fraudulent letters in favor of these leases — using real Ohioans’ identities without their consent — have prompted the state attorney general to investigate.Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine signed legislation in January mandating mineral rights leases to oil and gas drilling companies for fracking operations beneath Ohio State Parks and other public lands. Oil and gas companies have nominated dozens of tracts of land for leasing since the law took effect May 30.A public comment period for a nomination to lease mineral rights for fracking beneath Salt Fork State Park – the state’s largest at approximately 7,000 acres – closes September 25.Environmental groups and concerned citizens continue to protest the use of public lands for fracking.Now, some Ohio residents say their names appear on emailed letters they didn’t write, that urge Ohio’s Oil and Gas Land Management Commission to support state land mineral leases and develop oil and gas resources. According to a report by Jake Zuckerman on the cleveland.com website, one bore the signature of a 9-year-old child.“In one set of comments, 1,100 letters were submitted in five batches, with hundreds of letters in each batch showing a timestamp of a single minute,” said Save Ohio Parks steering committee member Cathy Cowan Becker in a September 15 press release.“The information for Ohioans whose names were on those letters included phone numbers, so a dozen Save Ohio Parks volunteers called 735 of those numbers. We reached 115 people and of those, 98 told our volunteers they did not submit the letter.”Some Ohio residents say their names appear on emails submitted to Ohio’s Oil and Gas Land Management Commission – like the one above – that they didn’t write. The letters urge the commission to support state land mineral leases and develop oil and gas resources. Screenshot of email posted to Ohio Attorney General’s Office website[/caption]Molly Jo Stanley, Southeast Ohio regional director for the Ohio Environmental Council, points out that while the fossil fuel companies submitting nominations remain anonymous, Ohio residents’ names and addresses become public record when they submit comments.“Fossil fuel interests exploited Ohioans by preying upon their identities for their own financial gain, resulting in numerous residents’ personal information — including a minor — being exposed online without their consent,” Stanley says in the release.Roxanne Groff, an environmental activist with Save Ohio Parks, noticed the suspicious nature of the letters after obtaining them from the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission through a public records request. The group then sent a letter to the commission alerting them to the possibly fraudulent emails on July 16.Groff says the Ohio Environmental Council then traced the emails to Consumer Energy Alliance, a Texas-based nonprofit funded in part by the oil and gas industry that lobbies for fossil fuel interests, through a link to a CEA webpage that contained the same wording as the suspicious emails. The webpage is no longer accessible on the CEA website.“We could not verify the other 1,600 emails sent from [Ohio’s Energy Future Coalition],” Groff says, explaining that an Ohio Environmental Council member found that Ohio’s Energy Future Coalition shared an address with the Affordable Energy Fund PAC, which has oil and gas industry connections.

Utica Shale Academy opens outdoor welding lab for students - Dozens of officials representing education, business and the community gathered for the unveiling of the Ascent Resources Welding Lab located adjacent to the Hutson Building on East Main Street in Salineville Sept. 12. This new offering at the Utica Shale Academy will help expose students to real-world working conditions.The facility features 20 exterior welding bays and room for storage and would serve upwards of 100 students. USA Superintendent Bill Watson said the purpose of the facility is to introduce pupils to welding in the elements so they know what is expected on the job.“It’s one thing to weld when it’s 70 degrees outside, but it’s another when it is cold. That’s the nature of the welding lab: They will be in the elements and we wanted them to really train and be prepared for these jobs,” Watson said.The site has been nearly two years in the making and was finally completed last week. He said the concept was based on an idea by instructor Matt Gates and may be among the first of its kind in the state.A funding shortfall nearly shelved the project, however, until Ascent stepped up to help, contributing $75,000. Additional funds came from Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief. SkyOxygen of Pittsburgh constructed the one-story building and Watson said five cohorts of 20 students can utilize the lab.USA has been expanding its campus and currently includes the Hutson Building, which houses general classrooms and Virtual Learning Academy programming through the JCESC; the Utica Energy Center at the former Huntington Bank, which is in partnership with Youngstown State University and offers megatronics, hydraulics, pneumatics, AC/DC electric, Programmable Logic Controllers, diesel mechanics and horticulture for students and adults, and the newly opened Utica Shale Academy Community Center on Church Street, which includes a fitness center and certified health workers for further support.

EPA Approves Permit for Controversial Fracking Disposal Well in Pennsylvania - The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) this week approved a permit for a toxic fracking wastewater disposal well named Sedat 4A, a highly controversial project in Plum Borough, Pennsylvania, rejecting residents’ concerns that leaks from the well could migrate and pollute other wells and groundwater.The decision comes as Pennsylvania faces a fracking disposal reckoning. Historically, the state has trucked much of its fracking waste to Ohio, which has a more robust infrastructure of injection wells. But now, as scrutiny over the safety of storing toxic wastewater underground mounts in Ohio, oil and gas companies operating in Pennsylvania find themselves in need of other reliable options for disposing of their wastewater.In the fracking process, drillers pump 15 to 20 million gallons of water and fracking chemicals into a well at high pressure to extract gas from small seams in the Marcellus Shale. Once the well starts producing gas, about 5 to 10 percent of the water used to frack the well resurfaces.Because this produced water has dissolved elements in the shale, it contains hydrocarbons, heavy metals and salt concentrations up to seven times higher than sea water, and can sometimes contain radium 226 or 228, radioactive isotopes, in addition to the chemicals added for fracking. While almost half of Pennsylvania’s produced water is then recycled to frack additional wells, it reaches a point when it can no longer be reused and must be disposed of. Treating the water to remove the chemicals and natural contaminants is prohibitively expensive. One solution has been to convert some of the state’s hundreds of thousands of conventional gas wells into disposal, or injection, wells. These conventional wells—which bore into porous rock formations and run only vertically a few thousand feet into the earth—were drilled decades ago, and many have been sitting abandoned for years. In a day’s work, a typical injection well pumps millions of gallons of toxic wastewater from fracking thousands of feet below ground at high pressure into the old, abandoned well. Currently, there are 14 such injection wells operating in the state. “We’re seeing a trend of these conventional well operators repurposing non-producing conventional wells into injection wells.” said Gillian Graber, executive director and founder of Protect PT, an organization focused on educating Pennsylvanians living in the state’s southwestern counties on the impacts of fossil fuel drilling on their communities. “These conventional wells are just simply not engineered for this purpose,” she said.

EIA Sep DPR: Shale Gas Production Drops Like a Rock, M-U Leads Drop Marcellus Drilling News - The latest monthly U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) for September, issued yesterday (below), shows EIA believes shale gas production across the seven major plays tracked in the monthly DPR for October will *decrease* production from the prior month of September–by a large quantity. This is the third month in a row EIA predicts shale gas production will decrease for the combined seven plays. EIA says combined natgas production will slide by 339 MMcf/d (million cubic feet per day)–roughly one-third of a billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). The Marcellus/Utica, called “Appalachia” in the report, is predicted to slump by 137 MMcf/d in October compared with September–the biggest slump of any of the seven plays.

22 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Sep 11 – 17 | Marcellus Drilling News - New shale permits issued for Sep 11 – 17 in the Marcellus/Utica rebounded. There were 22 new permits issued last week, up from 14 issued two weeks ago. But the increase came from an unlikely source. Last week’s permit tally included 9 new permits in Pennsylvania, 1 new permit in Ohio, and 12 new permits in West Virginia. WV is typically on the low end of permits, not the high end. The top permittee for the week was Antero Resources, which received 6 permits in WV. EQT was a close second with 5 permits in WV. ANTERO RESOURCES | ASCENT RESOURCES | BEAVER COUNTY | BRADFORD COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | DODDRIDGE COUNTY | ELK COUNTY | EQT CORP | JEFFERSON COUNTY (OH) | MARION COUNTY | MARSHALL COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SENECA RESOURCES | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY WETZEL COUNTY

SRBC Approves 8 New Water Withdrawal Requests for Shale Drilling - Marcellus Drilling News --The highly functional and responsible Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC), unlike its completely dysfunctional and irresponsible cousin, the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC), continues to support the shale energy industry by approving water withdrawals for responsible and safe shale drilling. Last week, the SRBC approved 22 new water withdrawal requests within the basin, eight of which are for water used in drilling and fracking shale wells in Pennsylvania. The Marcellus/Utica shale drillers receiving a green light from SRBC included BKV (Banpu), Coterra Energy, EQT, Inflection Energy, Repsol (2 requests), Seneca Resources, and S.T.L. Resources.

Pipeline Problems Could Cut Off Nation's 100-Year Gas Supply - TheOhio Star - A recent analysis determined the United States sits on a century’s worth of gas supply, but industry experts warn there aren’t enough pipelines to access it.The report from the Potential Gas Committee, part of the Colorado School of Mines, found that the country had technically recoverable gas resources of 3,353 trillion cubic feet, a 0.5% decrease from its 2020 estimate.Despite this, however, total future supply has hit the highest level recorded by the committee in 60 years.Steven Sonnenberg of the Colorado School of Mines noted they have seen a “bit of a plateau in recent years,” but “proved reserves are also increasing,” which represents more drilling activity from companies. It also shows more natural gas is moving from potential underground fields to actual reserves.The Energy Information Administration tracks proved reserves, which are confirmed gas supplies, while the committee tracks unconfirmed probable resources (like field extensions or new pools in discovered natural gas areas), possible resources (like new natural gas fields), and speculative resources (where new basins might be).“We’re essentially at all-time highs with both cumulative production, crude production, and these gas resource numbers,” Sonnenberg said.The U.S. consumes about 30 trillion cubic feet of natural gas annually, Sonnenberg noted, which would mean the country has a “100-year resource of natural gas” with its proven and estimated supply.Natural gas supplies in the Atlantic area, in which Pennsylvania resides, declined by 2.5% to 1,259 Tcf, but remain the most significant part of the country, with 40% of the country’s natural gas supply.“All of the increases in the Atlantic Area’s assessment since 2016 arose from ongoing evaluation of Appalachian basin shales, predominantly the prolific Marcellus in Pennsylvania and West Virginia,” the committee’s report noted.Pennsylvania in recent years has seen record revenues from its impact fee, which distributes money to local governments where natural gas production occurs. The Independent Fiscal Office, however, expects those payouts to decline.Production growth has also stalled, which industry advocates argue is a result of pipeline capacity limits and permitting delays, while environmental groups charge that natural gas production has permanently plateaued.The committee acknowledges that without more pipelines, the gas supply will sit unused.“The availability of pipelines to get the product out of the shale gas fields in particular — there’s only so much they can get to market without more of that infrastructure,” Committee President Kristin Carter said. “For that reason, you might have inactive wells … those things will put a hold on the resource assessments.”

US Gas Supply Higher Than Thought: Can Pipelines Keep Pace? | Energy Intelligence - The US, already a top producer of natural gas, could see even more future supply than previously thought as demand for the cleaner-burning fossil fuel continues to rise. But whether infrastructure to move that gas to market can keep pace is an open question.In a biennial assessment delivered this week, the Potential Gas Committee (PGC) reported an updated future US gas supply estimate of a record 3,978 trillion cubic feet as of 2022 — enough to satisfy current domestic demand for more than 100 years.The committee’s assessment of future gas supply, which combines estimates for technically recoverable resources and proven reserve volumes, represents a 3.6% increase from the 2020 estimate. The biggest share of supply is expected to come from the Atlantic region, home to the powerhouse Marcellus and Utica shale plays. The area accounts for 40% of estimated gas resource, according to the report. Overall, shale accounts for 61% of the estimated gas resource.With domestic gas consumption hovering near record highs, and global demand for US LNG expected to grow dramatically this decade, access to additional supply will be key, industry officials say. But it also poses challenges."Future gas supplies continue to increase as the energy industry innovates, improves processes, optimizes resources, invests in efficiency and reduces emissions,” said Richard Meyer, the American Gas Association's vice president of energy markets, analysis and standards. “However, to fully realize the potential of this natural gas supply, new infrastructure will be required to connect production zones to demand centers.”“The availability of pipelines to get the product out of the shale gas fields in particular — there's only so much they can get to market without more of that infrastructure, “So for that reason, you might have inactive wells," PGC President Kristin Carter agreed. She also cited other potential challenges to producing the additional resource quickly, including drilling permit wait times and crew shortages. "So you can have your well be kind of just in standby mode for a year or two because you're waiting on a pipeline, you're waiting on maybe some technology, or the the frack trucks, [if] the support companies are too busy and can't get to your well."The biggest share of supply is expected to come from the Atlantic region, home to the powerhouse Marcellus and Utica shale plays.

Groups say ‘clean’ hydrogen projects lack transparency and fear climate, safety impacts -- Hydrogen is considered a potential source of clean energy as the world steers away from burning fossil fuels, the main cause of global warming. But a growing number of organizations in Western Pennsylvania say they’re worried about proposals for a so-called ‘hydrogen hub’ in the region – where a network of companies would produce, process and use hydrogen. They say the public has been kept in the dark about the projects, and are worried about what impacts they’ll have on local communities. Two proposed hubs based in Western Pennsylvania – the Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub, or ARCH2, and the Decarbonization Network of Appalachia, or DNA – are among over 20 vying for federal hydrogen funding. The Appalachian hubs would produce “blue” hydrogen – where the element is stripped out of natural gas, and carbon dioxide produced in the process gets injected underground, instead of being released into the atmosphere. Others have proposed using renewables to create hydrogen out of water, known as “green” hydrogen, or the same process using nuclear energy, known as “pink” hydrogen. President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law included $7 billion to fund six to 10 hydrogen hubs around the country. The law mandated that two of the hubs be located in a region with large natural gas resources.But what is involved in building the projects, where will they be sited, how many jobs will go to local populations, what will be the environmental impacts – all of that is being kept secret by the Department of Energy, which is reviewing the applications.“The applicants have completely cut out the public and impacted community members…from any decisions regarding their operations and plans and infrastructure footprints, and policymakers have done little to hold them accountable for that,” said Tom Torres, hydrogen campaign coordinator for the Ohio River Valley Institute. “Unfortunately, even at this point, there’s very little information about either of the specific hubs and, you know, what their impacts could be.”The ARCH2 consortium required community groups to sign a non-disclosure agreement to see details of the proposal, according to a report in Inside Climate News.In a statement, the Department of Energy said clean hydrogen would play a critical role in President Biden’s “vision of a clean energy future.” The agency said it has put in place mandates that the hubs applying for federal funds include a community benefits plan describing how the groups will interact with community and labor groups, and meet the administration’s workforce, diversity and environmental justice goals. While few details are known about the proposals, they’ve attracted big oil and gas companies like Shell and EQT. Torres worries about what continued extraction could mean for the region. “The method of hydrogen production involves a significant amount of fossil fuels and so they’ll be using hydrogen from fracking, which comes with a lot of associated risks to public health and to the environment,” Torres said. A recent state-funded study found links between fracking and asthma and childhood lymphoma in Western Pennsylvania. Other studies have shown links to childhood leukemia, low birth weight and premature death in the elderly, among other health effects.Environmentalists are also skeptical about blue hydrogen’s climate benefits because they say companies haven’t yet shown they can capture CO2 from hydrogen production at sufficient rates.“We don’t think that these claims by industry that they’ll be able to capture 95% or more of the carbon dioxide from a hydrogen production facility are realistic,” said David Schlissel, director of Resource Planning Analysis at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.“Studying the technology is a good idea, and doing some larger-size tests where they capture more of the CO2 over time is a good idea,” he said. “But running off and implementing it and giving tens of billions of dollars to project developers is asking for trouble.”

In West Virginia, Plan to Clean up Radioactive Fracking Waste Ends in Monster Lawsuit – DeSmog - In rural West Virginia, largely hidden among steep hills, stands a $255 million facility designed to transform fracking waste into freshwater and food grade quality salts. Proponents hailed it as one of the most important environmental projects undertaken by the oil and gas industry in recent U.S. history. But local conservation groups and residents remained skeptical from the start, warning that the plant could leak toxic waste into water and air, harming human health and ecosystems in a largely forested region where tight-knit communities live close to the land. The facility, called Clearwater, was built by the Denver, Colorado-based oil and gas extraction company, Antero Resources, and an affiliate of Veolia, the multinational French waste, water and energy management company. It lies in the heart of north central Appalachia’s booming Marcellus and Utica gas fields — America’s top natural gas-producing region — and was built to process 600 truckloads per day of fracking wastewater. Laden with heavy metals, chemicals and other contaminants, this waste frequently exhibits levels of radioactivity hundreds of times the safe limits set by regulators. The developers’ hopes were initially high. At a meeting in September 2015 at the courthouse in Doddridge County, West Virginia, Conrad Baston, the general manager of civil engineering with Antero, suggested salt produced during the waste treatment process could be called, “Taste of the Marcellus,” after the gas-rich geologic formation from which it came. “It’s the best project like this in the world,” Kevin Ellis, Antero’s vice president of government relations, told a West Virginia newspaper in 2019. “Bar none. Period.” Ellis is currently Antero’s regional vice president in Appalachia, and Baston is still stationed with Antero in West Virginia. Antero was to own the treatment plant and supply it with fracking waste from its nearby oil and gas extraction operations. Veolia would design, build, operate and maintain the facility under a 10-year agreement in return for more than $255 million, Antero said in 2015. Clearwater began operating in November 2017, according to one drilling industry news site. But a mere 22 months later, the facility was idled, and Antero and Veolia are now locked in a half billion-dollar legal battle over the plant. On March 13, 2020, Antero filed a lawsuit against Veolia in the District Court of Denver County, Colorado. The complaint, obtained by DeSmog via a public records request, accused the company of fraud, breach of contract, gross negligence, and willful misconduct, and demanded at least $457 million in damages.“Clearwater was a failure,” reads the complaint. “Veolia promised[] a ‘turnkey’ facility” where Antero would “simply ‘turn the key’ and have everything function as intended” but “Veolia failed at every turn,” the complaint alleges. The filing further alleges that Veolia “started cutting corners even before the project started,” “hid” vital design flaws, and made modifications that were “ill-conceived, untested, and poorly implemented” and ultimately “doomed the commercial viability of the facility.” According to the complaint, the idling of the plant in September 2019 had nothing to do with a drop in natural gas prices, the reason Antero officials stated to a Pittsburgh newspaper at the time. The real explanation, the complaint alleges: “The facility simply did not work.”

Commonwealth LNG pens preliminary deal with EQT - US natural gas producer EQT Corporation has entered into a heads of agreement for liquefaction services from Commonwealth LNG’s proposed facility in Cameron, Louisiana. EQT plans to liquefy 1 million tons per annum of LNG under a 15-year tolling agreement, it said in a statement. However, final terms remain subject to negotiation of a definitive agreement between the two firms. EQT’s president and CEO Toby Rice said this deal represents “another step forward in EQT’s risk-adjusted LNG strategy, which seeks to diversify a portion of our production to international markets via arrangements that offer the best combination of upside exposure and downside risk mitigation.” “Our tolling capacity gives us the flexibility to sell our gas directly to end users globally and we are currently pursuing long-term purchase agreements with prospective international buyers,” Rice said. Houston-based Commonwealth LNG said in a separate statement it still anticipates a final investment decision on the project in the first quarter of 2024, with first cargo deliveries expected in 2027. It said that the terms anticipated under the HOA would commence at the start of commercial operation of the facility. The company’s 9.3 mtpa plant in Cameron will use gas turbines and other equipment from energy services firm Baker Hughes as part of a deal announced last month. Commonwealth LNG recently entered into a non-binding 20-year supply deal with Switzerland-based energy trader MET Group for 1 mtpa of LNG and it also closed an investment of development capital from private funds managed by Kimmeridge Energy Management. This investment completes the development funding required for the firm to reach FID.

Louisiana’s Cameron Parish Advancing CCS Hub to Store Emissions from LNG, Petchem Facilities -- Houston-based Carbonvert, a carbon capture and storage (CCS) expert, is teaming with Castex subsidiary Castex Carbon Solutions LLC to capture carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions at the Cameron Parish CO2 Hub. The hub would service existing industrial emitters and anticipated greenfield projects. “We firmly believe our Cameron Parish offshore project will help shape Louisiana’s low carbon future,” Carbonvert CEO Alex Tiller said. “Our CCS project will strengthen the local economy,” enabled through state and federal funds.

Improving Natural Gas Infrastructure Paramount for Cold Weather Reliability, Says FERC Chair - Winter Storm Elliott, which slammed the East Coast in late 2022, made it “abundantly clear” that major improvements have to be made to the natural gas and electric grid systems, FERC Chair Willie Phillips said Thursday. Speaking during a regular Federal Energy Regulatory Commission meeting, Phillips said improvements must be made to the grid to ensure cold weather reliability. He was referring to the joint inquiry completed earlier this year with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) (No. R23-29). “I have said repeatedly,” Phillips said. “Someone – it doesn’t have to be FERC – must have authority to establish and enforce natural gas reliability standards,” the chairman said. Some recommendations from the 2021 Winter Storm Uri report “are...

FERC cautions need to winterize power and gas systems in wake of Elliott - — A report by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has warned Congress and state legislatures they needed to require natural gas pipelines and power plants to better protect themselves against cold weather after a series of power outages in recent yearsIn a preliminary examination of the causes of last December's Winter Storm Elliott, which caused power outages along the East Coast and brought record cold to Texas, staff at the energy regulatory agency detailed how more than 1,700 power generation units shut down or reduced power due to cold weather. More than 800 of the generators were natural gas plants."Anyone would be forgiven if they looked at this report and said it's deja vu. This is the fifth time in 11 years where we had significant generator losses due to cold weather," said FERC Chairman Willie Phillips. "We need someone who is directly responsible for the reliability of our natural gas system."A major factor in the loss of generation, Thursday's report said, was a 16 percent decline in natural gas production due to frozen equipment, primarily in gas fields in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, which resulted in pipelines losing pressure and cutting supply to power plants.In New York City, pressure on distribution lines dropped so low that the gas system was on the verge of a complete shutdown that could have taken months to restore.The report followed similar recommendations by FERC in the aftermath of Winter Storm Uri, which caused millions of Texans to lose power for days in 2021 and that led to the deaths of hundreds in the state.But so far Congress has been slow to expand regulation over the natural gas sector, Earlier this year the North American Energy Standards Board, which had been charged by FERC to better coordinate the gas and power sectors, reported it had seen pushback from gas companies over efforts to ensure the flow of natural gas to power plants at times of high demand"This is illustrative of the difficulty of relying on a voluntary, consensual process to find solutions for the issues we endeavored to address," the report read.After the report's release, Dena Wiggins, president of the Natural Gas Supply Association, disputed that claim, stating, "both the gas and power sectors agree on the need to find solutions mitigating reliability risks."

FERC Approves Next Phase of Port Arthur LNG, Other Export Projects After Impasse - FERC has approved a suite of natural gas projects, including the second phase of the Port Arthur LNG project, following a key meeting on Thursday when it addressed the items that were struck from its agenda in July following an impasse among commissioners. Sempra Infrastructure called the order authorizing Port Arthur’s second phase “a major regulatory milestone” for the project. The first 1.8 Bcf/d phase is under construction in Texas and was sanctioned earlier this year. The second phase would double capacity. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission also approved plans to increase capacity at the Calcasieu Pass liquefied natural gas terminal in Louisiana by 50 MMcf/d. The Commission cleared Enbridge Inc.’s Venice Extension project for delivering 1.3 Bcf/d to the

Analysts Examine USA Gas Inventory Prospects for a 4+ trillion cubic foot end of October U.S. gas inventory level have faded, according to a new BofA Global Research report, which was sent to Rigzone this week. Storage is still likely to end the season at elevated levels, however, the report outlined, adding that this “has kept prices in check”. According to the report, weather, not prices, has played the “main role in absorbing excess inventories”. “During 2Q-3Q23, as wind underperformed, gas power burns averaged 39 billion cubic feet per day, up from 36.7 billion cubic feet per day over the same period in 2022 and 33.7 billion cubic feet per day in 2021,” the report noted. “High power burns lifted gas demand despite soft industrial and res/com use. Meanwhile, supply rose in the face of low prices, topping 102 billion cubic feet per day this summer. The net of these dynamics was a tighter balance, with storage falling to +200 billion cubic feet vs the five-year average recently from +370 billion cubic feet in June,” it added. U.S. gas inventories are likely to reach 3.81 trillion cubic deet at the end of October, the report outlined, highlighting that this would be “the highest level since 2020 (3.96 trillion cubic feet) and before that, 2016 (3.91 trillion cubic feet)”. This winter, U.S. production should average 101.9 billion cubic feet per day, or +1.5 billion cubic feet per day year on year, due to Permian and Northeast growth, the report noted. “Meanwhile, demand should rise three billion cubic feet per day year on year to 121.1 billion cubic feet per day due to higher LNG exports, which are set to average 1.8 billion cubic feet per day above 2022 levels thanks to Freeport’s return,” it added. “Res/Com and industrial demand should rise one billion cubic feet per day, while power demand comes in 500 million cubic feet per day lower year on year on higher renewables generation. Exports to Mexico averaged +300 million cubic feet per day year on year year to date, and we see winter 2023/24 volumes up 400 million cubic feet per day year on year too,” it continued. “Imports from Canada averaged nearly 300 million cubic feet per day lower year on year year to date, but we see this rebounding to +300 million cubic feet per day year on year this winter,” it went on to state. In the report, BofA Global Research revealed that it expects inventories to exit winter 2023/24 at 1.77 trillion cubic feet per day, “near five-year highs”. “If realized, this inventory path may cause Henry Hub gas to trade below our forecast of $3.50 million British thermal units (4Q23/1Q24) and below the current forward curve,” BofA Global Research warned in the report. A mild winter would put inventories on a path to hit new seasonal record highs by March and could lead to a repeat of sub $2 per million British thermal unit prices at times early next year as high-end of winter inventories reignite the possibility of hitting storage constraints next summer,” the report added. “True, supply growth is likely to slow next year year on year, but power burns, a big source of demand growth this year, should fall year on year next summer,” it continued.

All Eyes on LNG as Natural Gas Market Seen Well Supplied Heading into Winter - LNG export demand is the primary variable to watch in the U.S. natural gas market heading into winter, according to Marex North America LLC’s Steve Blair, senior account executive. The veteran natural gas futures broker joined NGI Senior Markets Editor Kevin Dobbs on NGI’s Hub and Flow podcast to discuss the outlook for U.S. supply, demand and prices as the storage injection season winds down. On the supply side, “As we all know, production has been elevated for a while now,” Blair said. Natural gas storage levels, meanwhile, “remain well above year-ago levels and…above the five-year averages, so we obviously have plenty of gas on hand. And it seems that the biggest factor in the U.S. domestic market…has been that LNG export...

Coast Guard cleans up oil spill in Casco Bay | WGME -- According to Portland Harbor Master Kevin Battle, a ship was fueling up with 30 to 40 gallons of diesel. When it got into their bilge, the pump turned on and fuel spilled into the harbor. The Coast Guard's pollution response team cleaned the spill up.

USA Government Ordered to Expand Gulf of Mexico Oil Auction - The Biden administration has been ordered by a federal judge to expand its sale of Gulf of Mexico oil leases later this month. The Louisiana-based judge concluded that the Interior Department probably moved wrongly at “the eleventh hour” to yank roughly 6 million acres off the auction block. At issue is the department’s decision last month to shrink the territory up for grabs in the Sept. 27 sale and impose traffic limits on vessels in a bid to safeguard the habitat of one of the world’s most endangered whales. The Interior Department’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management “failed to justify its pivot,” US District Judge James Cain wrote in a 30-page ruling late Thursday. “The process followed here looks more like a weaponization of the Endangered Species Act than the collaborative, reasoned approach prescribed by the applicable laws and regulations,” he said. Cain ordered the department to conduct the sale including the previously withdrawn acreage by Sept. 30, a deadline imposed under last year’s climate law. The decision is a win for Louisiana, which argued it stood to lose as much as $2.2 million in royalties. Oil industry challengers to the administration’s plan included the American Petroleum Institute, Chevron USA Inc., and Shell Offshore Inc. Chevron had emphasized vessel delays would boost the time and money needed to complete projects in the area. Ryan Meyers, a senior vice president of the American Petroleum Institute, praised the ruling, saying it “hit the brakes on the Biden administration’s ill-conceived effort to restrict American development of reliable, lower-carbon energy in the Gulf of Mexico.” But environmentalists said the order would further imperil the Rice’s whale, a species whose numbers have dwindled to as few as 51. “These baseline protections for the Rice’s whale are quite literally the least we could be doing to save the species from extinction,” Earthjustice attorney Steve Mashuda said by email. “Meanwhile, the government is still enabling the oil industry to bid on 67 million acres of the Gulf. These oil companies are looking at the full glass after one sip and calling it empty.” Earthjustice said it’s considering options for appeal. An Interior Department spokeswoman declined to comment.

Texas Upstream Oil and Gas Employment Figures Rise in August - Employment numbers in the Texas upstream sector during the month of August have jumped from figures reported in July. Citing the latest Current Employment Statistics (CES) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association (TIPRO) said that Texas upstream employment for August 2023 totaled 208,500, which TIPRO said was in increase of 1,200 jobs from July numbers. According to TIPRO’s analysis, Texas upstream employment in August 2023 represented the addition of 18,200 positions compared to August 2022, including an increase of 2,300 jobs in oil and natural gas extraction and 15,900 jobs in the services sector. TIPRO’s new employment data yet again indicated strong job postings for the Texas oil and natural gas industry during the month of August. According to the association, there were 11,951 active unique jobs postings for the Texas oil and natural gas industry in August, including 4,409 new job postings added during the month by companies. In comparison, the state of California had 3,641 unique job postings last month, followed by Louisiana (1,790), Oklahoma (1,609) and Pennsylvania (1,364). TIPRO reported a total of 53,810 unique job postings nationwide last month within the oil and natural gas sector, TIPRO said in its analysis. The top three companies ranked by unique job postings in August were Cefco (933), John Wood Group (543) and Love’s (406), according to TIPRO. Top posted industry occupations for August included first-line supervisors of retail sales workers (612), maintenance and repair workers (544) and heavy tractor-trailer truck drivers (343). The top posted job titles for August included customer service representatives (193), store managers (192) and field service technicians (120). TIPRO further cited data released from the Texas comptroller’s office that Texas energy producers paid $501 million in oil production taxes last month, up from the prior month, and also contributed $137 million in natural gas production taxes, also higher than totals collected in July. Overall, tax receipts from the sector are down from earlier this year, due to a slowdown in drilling activity in some of the state’s top oil and natural gas basins.

Permian, Eagle Ford and Powder River Requests to Develop Natural Gas, Oil Declining -- Permits to develop natural gas and oil in the Lower 48 slumped in August, with the biggest operating area, the Permian Basin, off by double-digits from July and 12% year-to-date. “Permian permitting continues to slow,” down by 407 or 37% month/month (m/m), with year-to-date permits declining by 820, according to Evercore ISI analysts led by James West. Each month the firm updates domestic permitting activity using state and federal data. Exploration and production (E&P) companies pull permits to drill about three to six months before development begins. [Want to visualize Henry Hub, Houston Ship Channel and Chicago Citygate prices? Check out NGI’s daily natural gas price snapshot now.] A total of 1,902 permits was issued nationwide in August, “a 30% decrease on a year earlier...

Oil, gas sector tells US lawmakers increased bond costs are unfair, may backfire | S&P Global Commodity Insights -- In addition to protesting plans to restrict leasing in Colorado and Alaska, the oil and natural gas industry is taking aim at the US Bureau of Land Management's proposal to boost bond costs for leases, telling US lawmakers that it is unfair to impose new costs when there are so few abandoned wells.The current bond rules work and that is why there are only 37 orphan wells on federal lands, Kathleen Sgamma, the president of the Western Energy Alliance, told the US House of Representatives' Committee on Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources on Sept. 19."The numbers show that it is an arbitrary and capricious rule to increase costs so much when the problem is such a relatively small number," Sgamma said during a hearing.The Department of Interior and the BLM on July 20 proposed to rule to raise minimum royalty rates, increase minimum bids and increase the minimum lease bond amount. Under the proposal, the minimum lease bond amount would be $150,000, up from the existing minimum of $10,000.Pete Stauber, the Minnesota Republican who chairs the subcommittee, asked whether the BLM's proposal to increase bond costs and other fees would run the risk of creating more orphan wells by putting small oil and gas producers out of business."As written, if these rules go through, they would put more wells at risk of being orphaned," Sgamma said. "The idea of a surety market and bonding is not to lock up all the capital in the bond, because if you do then you don't have those resources available to actually do the plugging and abandoning work and the reclamation work," she said.But Barbara Vasquez, an advocate for the Western Organization of Resource Councils, says the increased bonding requirements are necessary. The BLM has not increased minimum bonds amount for 60 years, she noted."Over 99% of federal wells carry bonds that are insufficient to cover the full cost of reclamation," Vasquez said. "That means that oil and gas operators are often financially incentivized to skip out of their responsibilities at the end of the economically useful life of wells," she said.Federal wells often remain idled for years or decades before they are declared orphaned and then plugged and reclaimed, Vasquez said. There are more than 2,300 wells that have been idled for more than 25 years, she said. Until they are plugged, these wells have the potential to leak pollutants into the air and water, she said.

How Much Crude Oil Will the USA Produce in 2023 and 2024? | Rigzone --How much crude oil will the U.S. produce this year and next year? Well, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released last week, U.S. crude oil production will average 12.78 million barrels per day in 2023 and 13.16 million barrels per day in 2024. Broken down quarterly, the EIA sees U.S. crude oil output averaging 12.86 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 12.94 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 13.03 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 13.09 million barrel per day in the second quarter of 2024, 13.15 million barrel per day in the third quarter, and 13.36 million barrel per day in the fourth quarter. This production averaged 12.63 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 12.71 million barrels per day in the second quarter, the September STEO highlighted. According to the STEO, in 2023, the Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, will produce 10.51 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of Mexico will produce 1.85 million barrels per day, and Alaska will produce 0.43 million barrels per day. In 2024, the Lower 48 will produce 10.85 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of Mexico will produce 1.90 million barrels per day, and Alaska will produce 0.41 million barrels per day, the STEO showed. Lower 48 output is projected to average 10.59 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 10.60 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 10.66 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 10.75 million barrels per day in the second quarter of next year, 10.90 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 11.06 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the report revealed. This production averaged 10.31 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 10.52 million barrels per day in the second quarter, the STEO highlighted. In its previous STEO, which was released in August, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production would come in at 12.76 million barrels per day in 2023 and 13.09 million barrels per day in 2024. Lower 48 production was expected to come in at 10.52 million barrels per day in 2023 and 10.81 million barrels per day in 2024, Federal Gulf of Mexico output was expected to average 1.81 million barrels per day this year and 1.87 million barrels per next year, and Alaska production was anticipated to average 0.43 million barrels per day in 2023 and 0.41 million barrels per day in 2024. “We forecast global liquid fuels production will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023 despite recent voluntary decreases in production from OPEC+,” the EIA noted in its September STEO. “Global production in our forecast increases by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024. Non-OPEC production is the main driver of global production growth in our forecast, increasing by 2.0 million barrels per day in 2023 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2024, led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana,” the EIA added. “We expect Russia’s production will decline by 0.3 million barrels per day on average this year and remain relatively unchanged in 2024. We forecast that OPEC crude oil production will fall by 0.8 million barrels per day in 2023 and increase by 0.4 million barrels per day in 2024,” the EIA continued. According to figures available on the EIA website, which stretch from the 1850s to 2022 and were last updated in August 2023, yearly U.S. field production of crude oil has never averaged 13 million barrels per day. The highest output figure shown in the data came in 2019, when U.S. field production of crude oil was revealed to have averaged 12.311 million barrel per day. This production came in at 11.911 million barrels per day in 2022, 11.268 million barrels per day in 2021, and 11.318 million barrels per day in 2020, according to the data.

Canada To Start Partial Sale Of Trans Mountain Oil Pipeline --The Canadian federal government expects to start the sale process for the Trans Mountain oil pipeline next week with a meeting with indigenous groups interested in buying a stake, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing sources with knowledge of the plans. Around 130 indigenous groups have expressed interest in buying a stake in the pipeline which carries crude from Alberta’s oil sands to British Columbia on the Pacific Coast. Representatives from the federal government and the indigenous groups are set to meet as early as next week to discuss a partial stake sale, according to Bloomberg’s sources.The Trans Mountain pipeline is being expanded, with the aim to triple the capacity of the original pipeline that carries Alberta crude through British Columbia to the west coast of Canada—to 890,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 300,000 bpd.At the start of the project, fierce opposition in British Columbia forced Kinder Morgan to reconsider its commitment to expand the Trans Mountain pipeline. So the Government of Canada reached an agreement with Kinder Morgan back in 2018 to buy the Trans Mountain Expansion Project and related pipeline and terminal assets.Construction on the Trans Mountain Expansion Project was 94% mechanically complete with around 42 kilometers of pipe left to install as of the middle of August 2023.However, the start-up of the expanded pipeline could be set back by nine months unless regulators approve a proposed change of its route. The expansion project, expected to triple the volume of crude shipped from Canada’s oil sands to its Pacific Coast, would intensify competition for Canadian heavy crude in the Midwest, where refiners have so far received discounted crude from Canada. The expansion of the oil pipeline is expected to raise the prices U.S. refiners in the Midwest pay for Canadian oil by up to $2 per barrel, analysts have told Reuters recently.

Oil companies granted licences to store carbon under the North Sea - Oil companies have been granted licences by the government that it hopes will enable them to store up to 10% of the UK’s carbon emissions in old oil and gasfields beneath the seabed.The government awarded more than 20 North Sea licences covering an area the size of Yorkshire to 14 companies that plan to store carbon dioxide trapped from heavy industry in depleted oil and gasfields.The companies include the oil supermajor Shell, Italy’s state-owned oil company ENI, and Harbour Energy, the largest independent oil and gas company operating in the UK’s North Sea basin.The industry’s government-backed regulator, the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), claims the companies could help store up to 30m tonnes of CO2 a year by 2030, or approximately 10% of UK annual emissions.The plan to develop old oil and gasfields into vast repositories of CO2 is part of the government’s plan to develop a carbon capture and storage (CCS) industry to reduce emissions from heavy industry entering the atmosphere and contributing to global heating.Stuart Payne, the NSTA’s chief executive, said: “Carbon storage will play a crucial role in the energy transition, storing carbon dioxide deep under the seabed and playing a key role in hydrogen production and energy hubs.”“It is exciting to award these licences and our teams will support the licensees to bring about first injection of carbon dioxide as soon as possible,” he added.Mike Tholen, a policy director at industry group Offshore Energies UK (OEUK), said: “If we get this right, it could not only significantly reduce the UK’s carbon footprint, but position us as world leaders in the low carbon space – creating opportunities for UK people and businesses and playing on our industrial strengths.”

Europe Gas: Prices decline on softer demand, LNG production resumption -- Dutch and British wholesale gas prices declined on Monday morning as demand softened on expectations of stronger wind output and full production resumed at the Wheatstone liquiefied natural gas (LNG) facility after a fault. The Dutch October contract TRNLTTFMc1 was down by 1.20 euros at 35.50 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) by 0803 GMT while the November contract TRNLTTFMc2 was 1.90 euros lower at 43.10 euros/MWh. The British day-ahead price TRGBNBPD1 fell by 5.30 pence to 87.50 pence per therm. Softer demand from power plants due to stronger winds in north-west Europe and higher production forecasts of French nuclear plants were bearish factors. LSEG gas analsysts said German wind speeds are expected to surge tomorrow to 750 gigawatt hours per day which is more than double the seasonal average. Peak wind generation in Britain is forecast at 15.3 gigawatts (GW) on Monday and 17.4 GW on Tuesday, out of total metered capacity of around 22 GW, Elexon data showed. Chevron said on Monday full production had resumed at its strike-hit Wheatstone LNG in Western Australia after a fault last week cut production by about one-fifth. Chevron had said it would maintain supplies from the major LNG terminal in the face of disruptions, which intensified over the weekend as workers escalated their strike action to 24-hour stoppages from brief halts and limited bans on certain tasks. Norwegian flows are nominated higher at 174 million cubic metres (mcm) from 153 mcm on Friday, even though there are several ongoing outages at Norwegian gas infrastructure. The Troll field has another one-day delay to startup. “The Norwegian grid operator has been rescheduling maintenance of the field for the past few days in a row. The field is expected to start production today at up to 20 mcm/d,” said Tomasz Marcin Kowalski, LSEG gas analyst.

Norway becomes top gas supplier to Europe after Russia invasion - In Europe’s rush to wean itself off of Russian energy since the invasion of Ukraine, Norway has become an increasingly important supplier. Last year, the Nordic energy powerhouse became the top exporter of natural gas to Europe, boosting its production by about 8%. And with prices high, government revenues from the oil sector nearly tripled last year. Those inside the industry say conversations and attitudes about the oil and gas industry have shifted since the war in Ukraine started. Jez Averty, a vice president at Equinor, which produces more than two-thirds of Norway's oil and gas, said he believes their product is now seen as more important than it was before the war. "It was probably important before. But it was a lot less visible,” Averty said, adding that sky-rocketing energy prices and energy shortages changed that for many Norwegians. Last year, oil and gas production was named a "fundamental national function," and Averty pointed out some companies were brought under the country's National Security Act. Averty said that this move "illustrates how important, strategically important, the oil and gas industry is now considered both for Norway and how important that is for Europe."

Europe Continues to Lean Heavily on Russian LNG Imports -Europe continues to rely on Russian LNG imports to compensate for the decline in pipeline deliveries from the country, despite calls to ban the super-chilled fuel. For the first eight months of the year, Russian liquefied natural gas exports totaled 20.58 million tons (Mt), according to Kpler. The European Union’s (EU) 27 countries imported more than half of Russia’s LNG exports over that time, or 10.18 Mt between January and August, compared to 10.43 Mt imported for the same period last year. “It may well remain this year as high as last year or be even slightly bigger,” European Union Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson recently told a conference in Warsaw. “We can’t be happy with that.”

Ukraine’s 2023/24 winter gas reserves seen above 15 bcm -Naftogaz chief = The volume of natural gas stored in Ukraine for the 2023/24 winter heating season is likely to exceed 15 billion cubic meters, making imports unnecessary, the head of the state-owned Naftogaz company said on Thursday. Oleksiy Chernyshov told national television the country was unlikely to import gas this winter as it has enough fuel for domestic needs. The country’s energy ministry said this week Ukraine had already met its winter gas storage target of 14.7 billion cubic metres (bcm). Ukraine uses little natural gas to produce electricity but relies on the fuel for heating and industry – sectors vulnerable to Russian strikes that chat could damage critical infrastructure. Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia in February last year, does not import gas directly from Russia, which is a major energy producer and exporter, but Ukrainian pipelines still carry Russian gas to Europe. Ukrainian storage facilities are mainly located in the western part of the country and can store around 30 bcm of gas. Naftogaz said in a separate statement that the company, aiming to cover the country’s needs with domestic production, has brought several new gas wells into operation with a daily output of 1.2 million cubic meters. The company has not disclosed the location of the wells, but most of Ukraine’s gas fields are in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions that have come under frequent Russian missile fire. Ukrainian energy officials have said previously that the country’s gas consumption has fallen by almost 40% due to the war and damage to industrial facilities.

Chevron and unions fail to reach deal on LNG strike - Chevron’s unit in Australia and unions representing its workers on Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG export terminals in Western Australia have failed to reach a deal and end the strike actions. Workers at Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG plants and the Wheatstone platform have started protected industrial action on September 8 after talks between the energy giant and unions ended without an agreement.Moreover, the Offshore Alliance, which includes the Maritime Union of Australia and Australian Workers’ Union, provided Chevron with a notice that work bans may apply for up to 24 hours a day from September 14.The Offshore Alliance said last Friday that “PIA has escalated today on the Chevron facilities and will continue to escalate over the coming days and weeks.” Chevron has been trying to narrow points of difference with employees and their representatives through further bargaining mediated by Australia’s workplace tribunal Fair Work Commission. The company recently asked the FWC to help resolve its ongoing dispute with unions and conciliation sessions continued this week. “No agreement has been reached with the unions following further conciliation sessions held this week with the Fair Work Commission,” a Chevron spokesperson told LNG Prime on Wednesday. “Chevron Australia engaged in meaningful negotiations in an effort to finalize the enterprise agreements with market competitive remuneration and conditions, however, the unions continue to ask for terms significantly above the market,” Chevron’s spokesperson said. “The ongoing lack of agreement reinforces our view that there is no reasonable prospect of agreement between the parties,” the spokesperson said.

Chevron Agrees to Mediator’s Terms in Australian LNG Labor Dispute - Chevron Corp. disclosed it has agreed to the terms of a deal with union workers at its Australia LNG facilities that was brokered by the country’s Fair Work Commission (FWC). Union workers at Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone liquefied natural gas facilities in Western Australia have been escalating tactics since labor action started earlier this month, instituting 24-hour work stoppages and directing members not to load tankers. After union members refused a direct offer from Chevron, the company requested that the FWC mediate negotiations. The two sides were expected to meet for a hearing Friday, but negotiations may end if the unions agree to the terms of the deal presented by FWC member Bernie Riordan.

Chevron Australia, Striking Workers Agree to Terms Proposed by Tribunal Chevron Australia Pty. Ltd. said Thursday it has accepted the recommendation for employment conditions made by Australia's Fair Work Commission (FWC) in the hope of ending a strike that has hit its liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities. The striking workers at the Wheatstone and Gorgon facilities have also decided to accept the FWC's recommendation after "substantial improvements" in employment terms and will now work with the Chevron Corp. subsidiary to finalize agreements, their union said Friday. The labor tribunal issued Thursday a recommendation laying out employment terms concerning work hours, lodging conditions, allowances, salary, promotion and job security. "The parties are on the precipice of achieving historical first enterprise agreements for these Chevron LNG facilities in Western Australia", FWC Commissioner B Riordan said in the decision posted on the agency's website. "To date, a large number of issues have been settled, on a without prejudice basis, which should form the foundation of enterprise agreements between the parties for the future". Chevron Australia had said it would formally ask the FWC for the government body to exercise its option to enforce its own terms of employment on both the disputing sides after an impasse. Workers at the projects have been on strike since September 8 after they failed to reach a bargaining agreement with Chevron Australia despite mediation by the FWC. Their union, the Offshore Alliance (OA) coalition between the Australian Workers' Union and the Maritime Union of Australia, has accused Chevron Australia of ignoring industry-level demands for employment conditions and insisting on its own terms instead of accommodating a union-initiated enterprise bargaining agreement. However, in a statement emailed to Rigzone on September 11 Chevron Australia claimed the demands were above the market level and that seeing "no reasonable prospect of agreement" between the two sides, the company would apply for so-called intractable bargaining declarations by the FWC. But the OA said in a statement sent to Rigzone Thursday the disputing sides met again last week with mediation by the FWC. And in its own statement sent to Rigzone Thursday Chevron Australia said it has now accepted the employment terms the FWC issued earlier in the day. "Chevron Australia has consistently engaged in meaningful negotiations in an effort to finalize Enterprise Agreements with market competitive remuneration and conditions. Today, we were provided a recommendation from Commissioner Riordan", Chevron Australia confirmed in the emailed statement. "After considering the recommendation, Chevron has accepted the recommendation to resolve all outstanding issues and finalize the agreements", the company said. "We have informed the Commissioner of our position and written to the unions and other employee bargaining representatives confirming our acceptance". The OA also said in a statement sent to Rigzone Friday its members have agreed to accept the FWC recommendation after a meeting on Thursday night. "Offshore Alliance members at Chevron endorsed a recommendation put by the Fair Work Commision at a late night mass meeting of over 350 workers", the emailed statement said. "The proposed enterprise agreements, which incorporate the Commissioner's recommendations, contain substantial improvements in terms and conditions of employment including increased remuneration, job security, locked-in rosters, career progression and returning all employees to a 40 percent roster", the union added. "The Offshore Alliance will now work with Chevron to finalize the drafting of the three agreements and members will soon cease current industrial action". The FWC decision came the same day the OA gathered a majority vote endorsing an enterprise agreement with Woodside Energy Group Ltd., according to a union statement earlier sent to Rigzone Thursday. The OA had planned a strike at the Woodside-operated North West Shelf LNG facility, in which Chevron Australia also has a stake, but called it off after an in-principle agreement was reached, according to a union statement August 24.

Australian LNG Union Workers End Strikes at Chevron’s Gorgon, Wheatstone Facilities - Work stoppages at two of Chevron Corp.’s Australian LNG terminals have ended while union members finalize negotiations with the company after almost two months of labor disputes. The Australian Workers’ Union (AWU), one of two organizations representing offshore and liquefied natural gas workers at Chevron facilities, disclosed Friday that the two labor groups have endorsed a deal backed by Chevron and federal mediators. The Offshore Alliance, a partnership between AWU and the Maritime Union of Australia, “will now engage in drafting discussions with Chevron to ensure that the recommendations from the commissioner are accurately incorporated into the agreements,” the union wrote in a social media post. “During this period, industrial action will cease.”

QatarEnergy eyes orders for giant LNG carriers - State-owned LNG giant QatarEnergy is planning a major order of Q-Max LNG carriers at yards in South Korea and China, according to shipbuilding sources. Sources told LNG Prime on Tuesday that QatarEnergy is looking to order about 15 Q-Max LNG carriers at yards in Korea and China. These deals could be finalized by the end of this year, the sources said. The orders could be potentially worth billions of dollars as one 174,000 cbm newbuild LNG carrier is currently worth about $260 million in South Korea and about $235 million in China. Currently, the world’s largest LNG carriers are Qatar’s Q-Max vessels that are about 345 meters long and have a capacity of 263,000-266,000 cbm. Qatar’s Nakilat owns 14 Q-Max LNG carriers built by Hanwha Ocean (DSME) and Samsung Heavy between 2008 and 2010, and they all transport LNG from the giant Ras Laffan LNG complex in Qatar to customers around the globe. QatarEnergy LNG, previously known as Qatargas, currently operates 14 LNG production trains with a capacity of about 77 Mtpa in Ras Laffan. However, QatarEnergy is significantly increasing its LNG production from the North Field. This first phase of the North Field expansion project will increase Qatar’s LNG production capacity from 77 to 110 Mtpa, while the second phase will further boost capacity to total 126 Mtpa. To secure shipping capacity, QatarEnergy reserved slots back in 2020 with three Korean shipyards, including Samsung Heavy, HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, and Hanwha Ocean, and China’s Hudong-Zhonghua. Subsequently, in 2022, QatarEnergy signed multiple time charter parties with various shipowners. Including orders at South Korea’s three shipbuilders and Hudong-Zhonghua, QatarEnergy concluded construction contracts and long-term time charter agreements for 60 LNG carriers last year. QatarEnergy expects the number to grow to more than 100 LNG carriers in the future and the firm is expected to start awarding new contracts as part of the second phase of the shipbuilding program this year. The second phase could include the construction of up to 40 ships but the total number of vessels remains unclear.

China’s monthly LNG imports continue to climb - China’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports rose for the seventh month in a row in August, according to customs data.Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that the country received about 6.30 million tonnes in August, a rise of 34.1 percent when compared to the same month last year.LNG imports in August also rose compared to5.86 million tonnes in July.China imported 45.51 million tonnes of LNG during January-August, up by 12.1 percent compared to the same period last year, the data shows.However, Chinese LNG imports fell last year due to due to very high spot LNG prices and Covid lockdowns, which affected economic activity.LNG imports dropped compared to the January-August period in 2021 when China imported51.81 million tonnes of LNG.Including pipeline gas, China’s gas imports rose by 9.4 percent year-on-year to 77.70 million tonnes in the January-August period this year.The country’s pipeline gas imports rose by 10.4 percent in August to 4.56 million tonnes, the data shows.Japan was the world’s top liquefied natural gas importer in 2022, overtaking China, but both of the countries took fewer volumes when compared to the year before.However, China has overtaken Japan in the first half of this year.Japan’s Ministry of Finance has not yet released its data for LNG imports in August.The country’s LNG imports dropped by 17.4 percent year-on-year in July to about 5.09 million tonnes. Japan imported about 37.71 million tonnes of LNG during January-July, some 1.53 million tonnes less than China.

China stored huge volumes of crude oil in August, giving it options (Reuters) - China's record crude oil processing and robust imports in August have painted a bullish picture of demand in the world's largest importer. But what is largely ignored, but shouldn't be, is the vast quantities of oil flowing into inventories. China added about 1.32 million barrels per day (bpd) to either commercial or strategic crude stockpiles in August, according to calculations based on official data. This reversed a rare draw on inventories in July, when refiners processed about 510,000 bpd more than was available to them from imports and domestic production. July was the first month in 13 that China turned to stockpiles, and came at a time when imports dropped as crude prices rose during the period when July-arriving cargoes would have been arranged. This was reversed in August as strong crude imports and steady domestic output outweighed the record refinery processing rates. China doesn't disclose the volumes of crude flowing into or out of strategic and commercial stockpiles, but an estimate can be made by deducting the amount of crude processed from the total of crude available from imports and domestic output. China's refiners processed 64.69 million metric tons in July, equivalent to 15.23 million bpd, according to data released on Sept. 15 by the National Bureau of Statistics. This was up 19.6% from the same month in 2022 and also stronger than July's 14.87 million bpd. Crude imports were 12.43 million bpd in August, the third-highest daily rate on record and up 20.9% from July and 30.9% from August last year. Domestic oil output was 4.11 million bpd in August, which when put together with imports means a total of 16.55 million bpd was available to refiners. Subtracting processing of 15.23 million bpd leaves a surplus of 1.32 million bpd that flowed into storage tanks. For the first eight months of the year China added about 810,000 bpd to inventories, or a total of about 197 million barrels. This means that in theory China could lower imports by about 1.61 million bpd over the final four months of 2023 and still have stockpiles at exactly the same level as they were at the end of 2022.

Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline ready to resume operations soon -Turkish minister Iraq’s northern oil export route through Turkey will soon be ready to resume operation after checks on pipeline maintenance and repairs to flood damage, the Turkish energy minister said. A survey of the oil pipeline is complete and it will soon be “technically” ready for operation, Alparslan Bayraktar said. Turkey halted flows on Iraq’s northern oil export route on March 25 after an arbitration ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) ordered Ankara to pay Baghdad damages for unauthorised exports by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) between 2014 and 2018. Turkey then started maintenance work on the pipeline, which goes through a seismically active zone and which it says has been damaged by floods. “As of today, the independent surveyor completed their survey and now they’re preparing their report,” Bayraktar said without mentioning a date for resumption of oil flows, in an embargoed press briefing held by the ministry on Thursday. Iraq and Turkey previously agreed to wait until maintenance works were complete before resuming the pipeline that contributes about 0.5% of global oil supply. Sources said oil flows are not expected to start before October, with KRG losing roughly $4 billion in lost exports. Turkey also calculates Iraq owes $950 million as a result of ICC arbitration, net of damages Turkey has to pay Iraq. Ankara will also file in the Paris court for a “set-aside case”, Bayraktar said. Iraq opened an enforcement case against Turkey in a U.S. federal court in April, to enforce a $1.5 billion arbitration award. “As two neighbouring countries, we need to find an amicable solution. But from the legality perspective, we need to take care of our interests. Most likely in the future we might face another court challenge. But the pipeline will be operational technically. It is more or less ready and we will start the operation soon”,

OPEC Slams The IEA Over Peak Fossil Fuel Demand Claims -- Consistent data-based forecasts show that peak oil and other fossil fuel demand will not happen before 2030, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) claimed earlier this week, OPEC said on Thursday, dismissing the claims of the “beginning of the end of fossil fuels.”Demand for oil, natural gas, and coal is nearing its peak, the head of the International Energy Agency said in an op-ed for the Financial Times on Tuesday, citing IEA research.Noting that demand for oil and gas has been growing despite forecasts of peaks, Fatih Birol went on to say that “according to new projections from the International Energy Agency, this age of seemingly relentless growth is set to come to an end this decade, bringing with it significant implications for the global energy sector and the fight against climate change.”The research, to be released in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook in October, suggests that even if governments do nothing more than they are already doing to curb the consumption of hydrocarbons, demand for all three of them will reach a peak within the next few years, Birol said.In a rare rebuke to energy forecasters, OPEC issued a strong-worded statement on Thursday, saying that “It is an extremely risky and impractical narrative to dismiss fossil fuels, or to suggest that they are at the beginning of their end.”“In past decades, there were often calls of peak supply, and in more recent ones, peak demand, but evidently neither has materialized. The difference today, and what makes such predictions so dangerous, is that they are often accompanied by calls to stop investing in new oil and gas projects,” the cartel said.OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais also commented on the IEA’s projections and claims, noting that “Such narratives only set the global energy system up to fail spectacularly. It would lead to energy chaos on a potentially unprecedented scale, with dire consequences for economies and billions of people across the world.”OPEC and its biggest members including Saudi Arabia have been warning for years that a rushed energy transition without security of conventional supply, and the underinvestment in the oil and gas industry, would lead to chaos and shortages of supply.In response to the IEA’s claims today, OPEC also said, referring to how net zero policies would impact people’s lives,“How much will they cost in their current form? What benefits will they bring? Will they work as hyped? Are there other options to help reduce emissions? And what will happen if these forecasts, policies and targets do not materialize?”

India's Crude Oil Imports Fell to 10-Month Low in August Due to Production Cuts by Russia -- India’s crude oil imports declined to a 10-month low in August, primarily due to production cuts by Russia and autumn refinery maintenance. The 18.73 million tonnes of imports in August is 4% lower than in July. The imports in August were the lowest since November 2022. However, imports last month were higher on an annual basis by 6% in comparison to August last year. According to Business Line, the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) said the imports fell for the third consecutive month in August due to “voluntary production cuts by Russia”, also impacting its most sought-after medium sour grade Ural. Ural imports from Russia to India in August slipped to their lowest levels since January this year. The reduction in imports, traders in India say, is due to smaller discounts on the Urals grade and the decreased appetite on the part of Indian refiners owing to planned autumn maintenance at some refineries. It is also due to reduced domestic demand in the country in the wake of the rainy season until September. Despite the dip in imports, India’s monthly bill on crude oil rose, from $10.3 billion in July to $10.9 billion in August given that production cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia hiked global crude prices. However, India’s import bill in August was lower on an annual basis. In August this year, Brent Crude was sold at an average of $86.22 per barrel in the global market compared to $80.05 in July 2023 and $99.99 per barrel in August 2022. As for India, the basket crude price was averaged at $86.43 per barrel in August 2023 against $80.37 during July 2023 and $97.40 in August 2022.

India’s imports of Saudi oil in September slump to a multi-year low India’s oil imports from Saudi Arabia in September slumped to a multi-year low of around 5,00,000 barrels per day (bpd), most likely due to Reliance Industries Ltd’s (RIL) impending maintenance shutdown of some units at its Jamnagar refinery complex and Saudi Arabian crudes becoming relatively more expensive than competing grades in the wake of production cuts by Riyadh, according to commodity market analytics and intelligence firm Kpler.So far in September, India’s oil imports from Saudi Arabia have averaged at 4,99,688 bpd, the lowest since November of 2014, as per Kpler data. In August, India’s Saudi Arabian oil imports stood at 8,28,486 bpd, while in September 2022, they were around 8,80,000 bpd. Between January 2022 and August 2023, the import volumes averaged at over 7,50,000 bpd.

Saudi Arabia's crude exports drop to two-year low in July - (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in July fell to their lowest for more than two years, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Monday. Crude exports from the world's largest oil exporter fell to 6.01 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, down about 11.6% from the previous month's 6.8 million bpd and the lowest since June 2021. Saudi Arabia made a deep cut to its output in July, the biggest reduction in years, on top of a broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply into 2024. Saudi crude output fell to 9.01 million bpd in July, down 943,000 bpd from June, while inventories fell by 2.96 million barrels to 146.73 million. Monthly export figures are provided by Riyadh and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to JODI, which publishes them on its website. Domestic refineries processed 3,000 bpd less crude at 2.56 million bpd, while direct crude burn rose by 49,000 bpd in July to 592,000 bpd. The country's oil products exports fell by 203,000 bpd to 1.14 million bpd in July.Saudi Arabia and Russia this month announced they would extend voluntary oil cuts to the end of the year despite a rally in the oil market. Their extension of oil output cuts to the end of 2023 will mean a substantial market deficit through the fourth quarter, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said last week. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised its October official selling price for its Arab light crude to Asian buyer.

Brent Oil Price Highly Likely to Move Above $100 | Rigzone -- We are highly likely to see Dated Brent moving above $100 per barrel. That’s what Bjarne Schieldrop, the Chief Commodity Analyst at SEB, said in a new report, which was sent to Rigzone on Monday. “It is now less than $5 per barrel away from that level and only noise is needed to bring it above,” Schieldrop said in the report. “Tupis crude oil in Asia traded at $101.3 per barrel last week, so some crude benchmarks are already above the $100 per barrel mark,” he added. In the report, the SEB analyst noted that, while Dated Brent looks set to hit $100 per barrel “in not too long”, SEB analysts are skeptical “with respect to further price rises to $110-120 per barrel as oil product demand likely increasingly would start to hurt”. “Unless of course if we get some serious supply disruptions. But Saudi Arabia now has several million barrels per day of reserve capacity as it today only produces 9.0 million barrels per day, thus disruptions can be countered,” he added. Schieldrop highlighted in the report that oil product demand, oil product cracks, and oil product inventories are a good thing to watch going forward. “An oil price of $85-95 per barrel is probably much better than $110-120 per barrel for a world where economic activity is likely set to slow rather than accelerate following large interest rate hikes over the past 12-18 months,” Schieldrop said. The SEB analyst outlined in the report that crude oil prices have been on a “relentless rise” since late June “when it became clear that Saudi Arabia would keep its production at 9.0 million barrels not just in July but also in August - then later extended to September and then lately to the end of the year”. In a statement sent to Rigzone last week, Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) said it has maintained that Brent prices will reach $100 per barrel by the end of this year “for several months”. “Fundamental data released prior to our deadline of August 31 has been mixed, however, we are reaffirming our call that Brent prices will reach $100 per barrel by the end of this year,” Al Salazar, the Senior Vice President of EIR, said in the statement. In a report sent to Rigzone last week, analysts at Standard Chartered projected that Brent would average $93 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year. “We do, however, caution that our forecast is a period average rather than a point forecast and hence does not rule out an intra-Q4 high above $100 per barrel,” the analysts said in the report. In that report, the Standard Chartered analysts said “the rally in crude oil prices has continued over the past week, with Brent crude oil setting a series of new year to date highs, with the latest at time of writing $92.38 per barrel”.

Saudi energy minister says oil supply cuts are not about 'jacking up prices' -- Saudi Arabia's energy minister said Riyadh and Moscow's decision to extend crude oil supply cuts is not about "jacking up prices," as Brent futures hover near $95 a barrel and analysts predict further rises into triple digits. "We can reduce more, or we can increase, that has been a subject that we want to make sure that the messaging is clear, that it's not about, again, this jacking up prices," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said Monday at the World Petroleum Congress in Calgary, Alberta. "It's about … making the decision at the right time, when we have the data, and when we have the clarity that would make us in much more of a comfort zone to take that decision." Some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, are implementing 1.66 million barrels per day of combined voluntary declines — which falls outside of unanimously agreed OPEC+ policies — until the end of 2024. Topping this, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced they will apply respective voluntary declines of 1 million barrels per day of production and 300,000 barrels per day of exports until the end of the year. Saudi Arabia is the world's largest seaborne oil exporter and relies on hydrocarbon revenues to support so-called giga-projects designed to diversify its economy. Shrugging off the inertia of the first half of the year, oil prices have gained ground amid supply cut announcements in recent months, as the market braces for a potential volume deficit in the latter part of 2023. ICE Brent crude futures with November delivery were trading at $95.21 per barrel at 5 p.m. London time Tuesday, up 78 cents per barrel from the Monday close price. Front-month October NYMEX WTI futures were at $92.51 per barrel, up $1.03 per barrel from the Monday settlement. The increases have rallied some analysts around speculation of a short-term return to oil prices at $100 per barrel. Asked on the possibility of hitting that threshold, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth on Monday admitted oil prices could cross into triple digits in a Bloomberg TV interview. "Sure looks like it. We're certainly moving in that direction. The momentum, you know, supply is tightening, inventories are drawing, these things happen, gradually you can see it building. And so I think, you know, the trends would suggest we're certainly on our way, we're getting close," he said, acknowledging an impact on the world economy. "I think the underlying drivers to the economy in the U.S. and frankly globally remain pretty healthy. I think it's a drag on the economy, but one that thus far, I think the economy has been able to tolerate." Energy prices have repeatedly underpinned higher inflation in the months since the war in Ukraine and Europe's gradual loss of access to sanctioned Russian seaborne oil supplies.www

The Oil Market Continued on its Upward Trend and Posted a 10-Month High Early in the Day on Supply Concerns -The oil market continued on its upward trend and posted a 10-month high early in the day on supply concerns and weakness in the dollar. However a rebound in the dollar index pushed the oil market to its lows in afternoon trading. The crude market breached its previous high and rallied to a high of $93.74 by mid-morning as the EIA estimated that U.S. oil output from top shale producing regions were on track to fall to 9.393 million bpd in October, the lowest level since May 2023. The market breached the upper boundary of its upward trending channel as it rallied to a level not seen since November. However, the market erased its gains and sold off to a low of $91.13 ahead of the close. The October WTI contract settled down 28 cents at $91.20 and the November Brent contract settled down 9 cents at $94.34. The product markets ended the session mixed, with the heating oil market settling up 8.56 cents at $3.3739 and the RB market settling down 3.98 cents at $2.6581. LyondellBasell Industries said slow economic activity and lack of import demand from China is impacting global supply and demand balances. It said refined product inventories remain low and fuel demand remains stable. It said underlying demand in North America is steady but tepid and added the consumer uncertainty and energy volatility are restraining demand in Europe.Mexico’s Pemex has resumed dealing with Vitol, nearly three years since deals with the world's largest independent energy trader were banned over a graft scandal. The ban followed Swiss-based Vitol's public acknowledgement in December 2020, in a deal with the U.S. Department of Justice, that it had paid kickbacks to win business with Pemex, as well as state companies in Brazil and Ecuador.Russia is pushing more crude onto the market even as it says it will extend supply cuts to the end of the year along with Saudi Arabia. That increased Russia’s seaborne flows to a three-month high. Tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show that average nationwide shipments in the four weeks ending September 17th increased to 3.34 million bpd, up 465,000 bpd from the period ending August 20th with the increases concentrated at the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk on the Black Sea.The OECD forecast that a stronger than expected U.S. economy is helping to keep a global slowdown in check this year but a weakening Chinese economy will prove to be a bigger drag next year. After expanding 3.3% last year, global GDP growth is on course to slow to 3.0% this year. While that was an upgrade from 2.7% in the OECD's June outlook, global growth was expected to slow to 2.7% in 2024, down from its estimate of 2.9% in June.

The Oil Market on Thursday Sold Off in Overnight Trading but Bounced Higher on News of a Russian Ban on Fuel Exports: The oil market on Thursday sold off in overnight trading but bounced higher on news of a Russian ban on fuel exports. The November WTI contract on its first day as the spot contract continued to find some further selling pressure following the news that while the Federal Reserve decided to keep rates unchanged, it said a further interest rate hike was likely by the end of the year. The market extended its previous losses by $1.29 as it posted a low of $88.37 in overnight trading. However, the market retraced its losses and rallied $1.32 as it posted a high of $90.98 by mid-morning on the news that Russia temporarily banned exports of gasoline and diesel to all countries outside a circle of four ex-Soviet states with immediate effect in order to stabilize its domestic market. The crude market later erased some of its gains and traded back below the $90 level in afternoon trading. The November WTI contract settled down 3 cents at $89.63 and the November Brent contract settled down 23 cents at $93.30. Meanwhile, the product markets ended in positive territory, with the heating oil market settling up 4.12 cents at $3.3680 and the RB market settling up 7 points at $2.6199. Platts is reporting that Russia is moving forward with the introduction of a ban on exports of diesel and gasoline. The ban, according to a government decree published Thursday, would include finished grade gasoline as well as summer, intermediate and winter diesel grades as well as heavy distillates including gasoil. The ban though would exclude exports to the Eurasian Economic Union, which include Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The measure is aimed at stabilizing pries in the domestic market by helping to increase supplies, while stopping so called grey exports.Iraqi Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, said that he envisions an oil price of no less than $85/barrel to $95/barrel. He added that Iraq wanted to keep oil prices steady to "ensure the interests of producers and consumers".U.S. oil refiners that increased processing this year amid increasing demand for gasoline and diesel are being hit by outages weighing on their ability to rebuild thin fuel stockpiles and helping drive up fuel prices. A more than 50% increase in mechanical outages in the first nine months this year combined with higher planned maintenance after a long run of operating at near full capacity has led to tightening fuel supplies and rising prices. A rally in global crude oil prices to more than $90/barrel also has contributed to fuel price hikes nationwide. However, already depleted fuel inventories have come under increased pressure from refinery outages and could set the stage for a resumption of price hikes later in the year.The EPA reported that the U.S. generated 701 million biodiesel (D4) blending credits in August, up from 636 million in July. It also reported that the U.S. generated 1.26 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits in August, down from 1.28 billion in July.

Oil Prices Set For A Weekly Loss As Higher-For-Longer Rates Trump Tight Market - Oil prices were on track to post a small weekly loss early on Friday after the Fed signaled this week that interest rates could remain higher for longer, although it skipped a rate hike at its latest meeting. In Asian trade on Friday, WTI Crude was up by 0.62% at $90.19 and Brent Crude rose by 0.44% to $93.74.Both benchmarks were on track for a small weekly decline, following three weeks of weekly gains, in which prices had jumped by a total of 10% and hit the highest levels since November 2022.Oil prices rose at the start of this week, buoyed by signs of tightening crude and fuel markets and additional draws in U.S. inventories, but the Fed put the brakes on the rally on Wednesday after signaling interest rates could be kept at higher levels for longer.As widely expected, the Fed paused the interest rate hikes at its September meeting but signaled that with inflation remaining elevated despite a fairly strong economy there may be another rate hike later this year.“Higher for longer was the key message” from the FOMC meeting, which has weighed on risk assets, including crude oil, ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said on Thursday. Even with the pause in hikes this month, the Fed sent a hawkish message.Economic concerns in Europe could also weigh on oil prices in the near term, according to Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets.“Mounting fears of a recession in the Eurozone could continue pressuring oil prices,” Teng wroteon Thursday.Profit-taking after the recent rally has also weighed down on oil prices this week.However, on Thursday, oil prices got a boost from Russia’s decision to temporarily restrict exportsof diesel and gasoline as Moscow aims to stabilize domestic fuel prices.

Oil Products Reverse Lower as UAW Expands Strike, WTI Gains (DTN) -- October RBOB and ULSD futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange reversed lower on Friday on concern over economic growth. November West Texas Intermediate settled higher despite a strengthening U.S. dollar on tightening global supply availability, and November Brent on the Intercontinental Exchange settled flat. ULSD futures swung from a $3.4294 intraday high early session bolstered by Russia's announcement on Thursday that it would suspend diesel and gasoline exports amid strong domestic demand to trade at an intraday low of $3.3045 gallon in afternoon trading after the United Auto Workers expanded a strike at midday, settling the session at $3.3062 per gallon, down $0.0618. October RBOB futures settled down $0.0581 at $2.5618 per gallon. A targeted work stoppage at General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis' most profitable plants that began on Sept. 14 was expanded to 38 plants owned by General Motors and Stellantis on Friday, with UAW President Shawn Fain having previously stated the strike action would expand if significant progress in negotiations wasn't achieved. The expanded work stoppage did not include Ford, with UAW indicating progress in discussions with the automaker. The expanded strike, should it continue, will be detrimental to the U.S. economy, with the Anderson Economic Group previously indicating a 10-day strike against Detroit's Big Three automakers by the 146,000-member UAW could cause a $5.6 billion loss in U.S. gross domestic product and push Michigan's economy into recession. The widening work stoppage comes as the federal government is barreling toward a shutdown, with repeated efforts by the House of Representatives to pass a stopgap budget funding the government past Sept. 30 failing. The White House budget office told federal agencies on Friday to be ready to alert their staff of the potential for a shutdown, with funding for the federal government not approved by Congress beginning on Oct. 1. Although the Federal Open Market Committee sees a path to a soft landing for the U.S. economy when they conclude their current monetary policy tightening, some market observers disagree, believing the potential for another rate hike later this year joined by persistently high inflation could push the economy into recession. FOMC on Wednesday held the federal funds rate unchanged in a 5.25% by 5.5% target range, but most of the voting FOMC officials expect to lift the key bank borrowing rate by 25-basis points in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the Fed's dot-plot shows central bank officials expect the federal funds rate to hold above 5% in 2024, projecting two 25-basis point cuts next year, down from four. The "higher for longer" refrain, now appearing in Fed official's rate projections, contrasted with the accommodative monetary policy that the Bank of Japan voted to continue Friday morning. On Thursday, the Bank of England held its main policy rate unchanged against expectations for a 25-basis point increase, with the combination of these policy decisions strengthening the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index settled 0.21% higher at 105.260 in index trading against a basket of foreign currencies on Friday, trimming an advance to a 105.465 better-than-six-month high. November West Texas Intermediate futures settled above $90 per barrel (bbl) at $90.03, up $0.40, despite the stronger U.S. dollar, although did trim an advance to $91.33 per bbl spurred by a tightening global supply balance. ICE November Brent futures settled down $0.03 at $93.27 per bbl, fading from a $94.64 intraday high. The International Energy Agency projects Saudi Arabia's 1-million-barrel-per-day (bpd) production cut and Russia's pledge to withhold 300,000 bpd in oil exports from the world market through the end of the year will create a 1.2-million-bpd supply shortfall in the fourth quarter. WTI futures also got a price boost on the session after Baker Hughes reported an eight-rig decline in the number of oil rigs deployed in the United States that pressed the U.S. oil rig count to a 507 20-month low on Friday. Goldman Sachs Research this week revised its forecast for oil prices, expecting Brent crude to reach $100 bbl in the next 12 months, up from a previous forecast of $93 per bbl. "OPEC will probably be able to keep Brent prices in a range of $80-$105 next year," said Goldman Sachs Head of Oil Research Daan Struyven. The research team also cited demand growth globally next year led by Asia. "There will likely be more global demand for oil in 2024 led by Asia, as the slowdown in China's economy shows signs of "bottoming out." India and the Middle East are also expected to have large increases in demand," said Goldman Sachs Research.

Iran becomes 3rd top oil producer among OPEC members: report - Tehran Times - Iran continued to increase its oil production in August to reach three million barrels per day (bpd) and stand at the third place among OPEC top producers, according to figures released in the organization’s latest monthly report. OPEC data showed that Iran’s oil output increased by 143,000 bpd or five percent in August compared to production figures reported in July, Shana reported. The figures showed that Iran had regained its position as the third largest oil producer in OPEC in August behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Iran posted the largest increase in oil production in OPEC last month, as the country is exempt from output cuts introduced by the alliance to help boost international oil prices. Iranian heavy oil prices rose to $87.58 per barrel in August from $81.48 reported in July, OPEC data showed. The figures prove earlier reports suggesting Iranian oil production and exports had reached multi-year record levels in August despite U.S. sanctions that restrict the country’s ability to engage in normal trade of oil products. Estimates by international energy firms published earlier this month had suggested that Iran’s oil exports were nearly 3.15 million bpd in August as oil exports from the country reached over 2 million bpd. Private refiners in China accounted for a bulk of oil purchases from Iran last month as shipments rose to an all-time record of 1.5 million bpd. Iran’s Oil Minister Javad Oji said earlier this month that Iran’s oil production will reach 3.4 million bpd by late September.

2 years ago, the Taliban banned girls from school. It’s a worsening crisis for all Afghans (AP) — Two years after the Taliban banned girls from school beyond sixth grade, Afghanistan is the only country in the world with restrictions on female education. Now, the rights of Afghan women and children are on the agenda of the United Nations General Assembly Monday in New York.The U.N. children’s agency says more than 1 million girls are affected by the ban, although it estimates 5 million were out of school before the Taliban takeover due to a lack of facilities and other reasons.The ban triggered global condemnation and remains the Taliban’s biggest obstacle to gaining recognition as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan. But the Taliban defied the backlash and went further, excluding women and girls from higher education, public spaces like parks, and most jobs. The Taliban stopped girls’ education beyond sixth grade because they said it didn’t comply with their interpretation of Islamic law, or Sharia. They didn’t stop it for boys. In the past two years, they’ve shown no signs of progress in creating the conditions they say are needed for girls to return to class.Their perspective on girls’ education partly comes from a specific school of 19th century Islamic thought and partly from rural areas where tribalism is entrenched, according to regional expert Hassan Abbas.“The ones who went on to develop the (Taliban) movement opted for ideas that are restrictive, orthodox to the extreme, and tribal,” said Abbas, who writes extensively about the Taliban. The Taliban leadership believes women should not participate in anything social or public and should especially be kept away from education, said Abbas. The Taliban also stopped girls’ education when they ruled Afghanistan in the late 1990s.

Kim Concludes Visit to Russia with Goal of Increased Across-the-Board Relations - -North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un concluded his six-day state visit to Russia on Sunday. While Kim did not ink an official agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the two leaders discussed several domains where the two nations planned to increase cooperation. The growing ties between Moscow and Pyongyang come as President Joe Biden has pledged to isolate Russia from the rest of the world. Russian Minister of Natural Resources and Environment Alexander Kozlov wrote on Telegram, “The official visit of Comrade Kim Jong Un [to Russia] is over.” He added, “We discussed issues of cooperation between the regions. Those are mainly issues related to the development of agriculture, the development of transport infrastructure, transport service, of course, cultural exchange, education, medical issues.” Kim’s time in Russia was his longest trip to a foreign country since ascending to supreme leader in 2011. Putin met with Kim shortly after he arrived in eastern Russia. The North Korean leader visited a Russian spaceport. Putin confirmed that the leaders discussed sharing technology in that domain. Russian military officials additionally hosted Kim at a base where the North Korean supreme leader sat in an advanced warplane. Top Russian and North Korean defense officials called for the two nations to strengthen military ties. “North Korean Defense Minister Kang Sun Nam said that the Korean People’s Army is ready to strengthen combat brotherhood with the Russian Armed Forces and join forces to defend peace and stability in the region and on the planet,” TASS – Russian state media – reported.Pyongyang and Moscow have been tight-lipped on many of the details of what was discussed between North Korean and Russian officials. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov explained, “As neighbors, our countries implement cooperation in sensitive areas that should not become the subject of public disclosure and announcement. But this is quite natural for neighboring states.”Before the summit, the White House speculated that North Korea would agree to aid the Russian war in Ukraine by providing artillery rounds to Moscow. State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller slammed Pyongyang and threatened additional sanctions on North Korea. However, as North Korea is already one of the most isolated nations in the world, it is unclear how much further Washington can expand the economic war against Pyongyang. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. Mark Milley, downplayed the impactof any military cooperation between Russia and North Korea. When asked about potential North Korean weapons transfers to Russia on Saturday, he said, “Would it have a huge difference? I’m skeptical of that. I doubt that it would be decisive.”

Zelensky Says Counteroffensive Will Continue Despite Weather Change - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday insisted the Ukrainian counteroffensive will continue despite the upcoming change in weather, which US officials have said impede Ukraine’s ability to continue the assault.Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said last week that Ukraine only has between 30 and 45 days of “fighting weather” left as fall is approaching, meaning colder and wetter conditions that will make it harder for armored vehicle assaults.“We need to liberate our territory as much as possible and move forward, even if it’s less than [half a mile or] a hundred [yards] we must do it. we can’t lose time,” Zelensky said when asked about the weather on “60 Minutes.”“Forget about the weather, and the like. In places that we can’t get through in an armored vehicle — let’s fly. If we can’t fly — let’s send drones. We mustn’t give Putin a break,” he added.Zelensky also insisted the counteroffensive was making good progress despite gaining significant territory and bleak assessments from his Western backers. “The situation is tough. We stopped the Russians in the east and started a counteroffensive. Yes, it is not that fast but we are going forward every day and de-occupying our land,” he said.The Ukrainian leader blamed the US and other Western backers for the counteroffensive not starting before June, claiming weapons shipments were delayed.Zelensky also reiterated his position that Ukraine is not willing to compromise with Russia for peace. When asked if he would give up any Ukrainian territory to end the war, he said, “No. This is our territory.”

G7 Official Says Ukraine War Could Last for Seven More Years - The US and its allies in the Group of Seven are preparing to support the proxy war in Ukraine for years to come, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.One unnamed official from a European G7 nation told the paper that the war could last six or seven more years and that the allies need to prepare financially to keep fueling the conflict for that long.US and NATO officials have been saying publicly that they are preparing for a long war. “Most wars last longer than expected when they first begin. Therefore, we must prepare ourselves for a long war in Ukraine,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Sunday.At the recent NATO summit in Vilnius, the G7 nations pledged to negotiate their own bilateral security deals with Ukraine to provide long-term military support. According to The Wall Street Journal, the Biden administration is looking to reach a deal with Ukraine to tie the hands of a future president who may want to wind down support for the proxy war.While the majority of Congress still supports funding the war, a loud minority of Republicans in the House are making it difficult to authorize the $24 billion in additional spending on Ukraine that the White House has requested. The White House wants the aid passed before the fiscal year ends on September 30.

Almost 50 children from occupied Ukrainian regions arrive in Belarus, sparking outrage --(AP) — Belarusian state media reported that 48 children from Ukraine arrived in Belarus on Tuesday from Ukrainian regions which Moscow claims it has annexed. The group of children came from the occupied Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions. They include children from towns which were captured by the Russian army in July 2022. Those regions were illegally annexed by Moscow in December last year, but Russia doesn’t have full control over them. In photos published by the Belarus state news agency Belta, the children were pictured holding the red and green state flag of Belarus and reportedly thanked the Belarusian authorities, while being flanked by police and riot police. The removal of the children from Ukraine was organized by a Belarusian charity, supported by President Alexander Lukashenko, which has previously organized health recuperation programs for Ukrainian children in Belarus.

Ukraine targets a key Crimean city a day after striking Russia’s Black Sea Fleet headquarters - — Ukraine on Saturday morning launched another missile attack on Sevastopol on the occupied Crimean Peninsula, a Russian-installed official said, a day after an attack on the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet that left a serviceman missing and the main building smoldering. Sevastopol was put under an air raid alert for about an hour after debris from intercepted missiles fell near a pier, Gov. Mikhail Razvozhayev wrote on the messaging app Telegram. He later added that another missile fragment fell in a park in northern Sevastopol, parts of which had to be cordoned off. Ferry traffic in the area was also halted and later resumed. Loud blasts were also heard near Vilne in northern Crimea, followed by rising clouds of smoke, according to a pro-Ukraine Telegram news channel that reports on developments on the peninsula. Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, has been a frequent target for Ukrainian forces since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Ukraine’s intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, told Voice of America on Saturday that at least nine people were killed and 16 others wounded as a result of Kyiv’s attack on the Black Sea Fleet on Friday. He claimed that Alexander Romanchuk, a Russian general commanding forces along the key southeastern front line, was “in a very serious condition” following the attack. Budanov’s claim couldn’t be independently verified, and he didn’t comment on whether Western-made missiles were used in Friday’s attack. The Russian Defense Ministry initially said that the strike killed one service member at the Black Sea Fleet headquarters, but later issued a statement that he was missing.

NATO Member Bulgaria Finds Explosive-Laden Drone on Its Territory - A drone carrying an explosive device was found on Bulgaria’s Black Sea coast on Sunday evening, an incident Bulgaria’s defense minister said was likely “related” to the war in Ukraine.The drone was found on rocks next to a boat mooring in the resort town of Tyulenovo. It’s unclear whether the drone fell from the air and landed there or if it washed up on the coast after hitting the water.On Monday, Bulgaria’s Defense Ministry said a bomb disposal team detonated the device in a controlled explosion. “We can certainly assume that it is related to the war that Russia launched against Ukraine,” said Bulgarian Defense Minister Todor Tagarev. “This war is inevitably associated with increasing risks to our security.”Tyulenovo is about 18 miles south of the Romanian border and about 120 miles south of the section of the Danube River that acts as a border between Russia and Ukraine. Romania, also a NATO member, found suspected drone fragments on its territory after Russian bombardments of Ukraine’s Danube river ports, but Romanian authorities have stressed that their territory is not under threat.Tyulenovo is also across the Black Sea from Crimea, which has become a major target of Ukrainian drones. According to POLITICO, Bulgarian Deputy Minister of Defense Yordan Bozhilov said it’s difficult to determine the origins of the drone found in Tyulenovo and whether it belonged to Russia or Ukraine.The incident in Bulgaria and the drone fragments being found in Romania highlight the risk of the war in Ukraine escalating into NATO territory. Last year, when a Ukrainian air defense missile hit Poland and killed two people, Ukrainian officials claimed it was a Russian missile in an attempt to get NATO to intervene directly in the war.

As Slovakia’s trust in democracy fades, its election frontrunner campaigns against aid to Ukraine (AP) — A populist former prime minister whose party is favored to win Slovakia’s early parliamentary election plans to reverse the country’s military and political support for neighboring Ukraine, in a direct challenge to the European Union and NATO, if he returns to power.Robert Fico, who led Slovakia from 2006 to 2010 and again from 2012 to 2018, is the frontrunner to occupy the prime minister’s office after the Sept. 30 election. He and his left-wing Direction, or Smer, party have campaigned on a clear pro-Russian and anti-American message.His candidacy is part of a wider trend across Europe. Only Hungary has an openly pro-Russian government, but in other countries, including Germany, France, and Spain, populist parties skeptical of intervention in Ukraine command significant support. Many of these countries have national or regional elections coming up that could tip the balance of popular opinion away from Kyiv and towards Moscow.“If Smer is part of the government, we won’t send any arms or ammunition to Ukraine anymore,” Fico, who currently holds a seat in Slovakia’s parliament and is known for foul-mouthed tirades against journalists, said in an interview with The Associated Press before a recent campaign rally.

Ukraine complains to WTO about Hungary, Poland and Slovakia banning its food products (AP) — Ukraine is filing a complaint at the World Trade Organization against Hungary, Poland and Slovakia after they banned grain and other food products coming from the war-torn country, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Tuesday. It heightens a political showdown pitting farmer against farmer and widens a rift between Ukraine, a major global food supplier, and three members of the European Union, which has been a pivotal backer of Kyiv as it works to fight off Russia’s invasion. In a break with the wider EU, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia last week announced bans on imports of Ukrainian food to their local markets. They were joined Tuesday by Croatia. But all four will keep allowing those products to move through their borders to parts of the world where people are going hungry.The four countries, two of which have elections within the coming weeks, say the bans are needed to protect their farmers from a supply glut that drives down local prices and hurts livelihoods. They took the step after the EU last week lifted restrictions on Ukraine’s exports to five member states, including Romania and Bulgaria.

Poland will no longer supply Ukraine with arms - Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said this week his country will no longer supply new weapons to Ukraine in a sudden reversal of support from one of Kyiv’s staunchest allies in the war against Russia. Morawiecki told Polish media channel Polsat News on Wednesday that Poland would no longer be “transferring any weapons” to Ukraine. “We will now arm ourselves with the most modern weapons,” he said. The Polish embassy in Washington, D.C., said in an email to The Hill the country still carries out “previously agreed-upon deliveries of ammunition and weaponry” under signed contracts and would remain an international hub of assistance for other Western arms flowing into Ukraine. Polish Ambassador to the U.S. Marek Magierowski said on X, formerly Twitter, that “over the last 17 months we have basically gutted our military for the sake of Ukraine’s war effort.” “Poland is now striving to make up for the depletion of our own capabilities,” he continued in the post. The decision is a major blow to Ukraine, which has relied on Western support for arms deliveries to stay in the fight against Russian forces and has worked hard to maintain that support. If the Polish support remains frozen, it would be a big victory for Moscow. Part of Russia’s strategy is to stay in the fight long enough to entrench themselves in eastern Ukraine and hope that Western support cracks over time. Morawiecki’s announcement comes after Kyiv said it will sue Poland, Hungary and Slovakia in the World Trade Organization for banning grain and agricultural imports from Ukraine.A European Union commission over the spring allowed those countries to temporarily ban the agricultural imports, but the commission recently declined to extend the ban. That led Poland, Slovakia and Hungary to impose bans of their own and Ukraine to sue in response. Poland says shipping large amounts of Ukrainian grain into its country is creating high stocks of product and market volatility, which is impacting its farmers and economy.

Poland & Ukraine Have Plunged Into A Full-Blown Political Crisis With No End In Sight - Both parties are in a dilemma whereby each believes that they have more to gain at the level of national and political interests by escalating tensions than by being the first to de-escalate them. A self-sustaining cycle is thus in the process of forming, which risks leading to such a drastic deterioration of their ties that the presently dismal state thereof might soon be looked fondly upon.Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s revelation to local media on Wednesday that his country had stopped supplying arms to Ukraine in favor of arming itself showed just how far bilateral ties have plunged over the past week. Warsaw unilaterally extended restrictions on its eastern neighbor’s agricultural imports upon the expiry of the European Commission’s deal on 15 September in order to protect its farmers, which prompted Kiev to complain to the WTO about it on Monday.Later that same day, Polish government spokesman Piotr Mullersuggested that Warsaw might let its aid to Ukrainian refugees lapse next spring instead of extending it, thus hinting at a willingness to expand their trade dispute into other dimensions. If that happens, then the over one and a half million Ukrainians temporarily residing in Poland would either have to return home or go to elsewhere to Germany for instance. Everything then snowballed into a full-blown political crisis on Tuesday.Polish Minister of European Affairs Szymon Szynkowski vel Sekominously warnedthat:Ukraine’s actions make no impression on us… but they do make a certain impression on Polish public opinion. This can be seen in the polls, in the level of public support for continued support for Ukraine. And this harms Ukraine itself. We would like to continue supporting Ukraine, but, for this to be possible, we must have the support of Poles in this matter. If we don’t have it, it will be difficult for us to continue supporting Ukraine in the same way as we have been doing so far.Zelensky then exploited his global pulpit at the UNGA to fearmongerabout the following:We are working to ensure food stability. And I hope that many of you will join us in these efforts. We launched a temporary sea export corridor from our ports. And we are working hard to preserve the land routes for grain exports. And it is alarming to see how some in Europe, some of our friends in Europe, play out solidarity in a political theater – making a thriller from the grain. They may seem to play their own role but in fact they are helping set the stage to a Moscow actor.Polish President Andrzej Duda’s response that he shared with reporters showed how offended he was:Ukraine is behaving like a drowning person clinging to everything he can… but we have the right to defend ourselves against harm being done to us. A drowning person is extremely dangerous, he can pull you down to the depths… simply drown the rescuer. We must act to protect ourselves from the harm being done to us, because if the drowning person… drowns us, he will not get help. So we have to take care of our interests and we will do it effectively and decisively.It was against this backdrop that Poland urgently summoned the Ukrainian Ambassador on Wednesday, after which Morawiecki revealed later that day that Poland is no longer sending weapons to Kiev. Prior to Ukraine complaining to the WTO about Poland, which is what set this fast-moving sequence of events into motion, tensions were already boiling for some time as a result of the failed counteroffensive sobering them up from the mutual delusion of seemingly inevitable victory over Russia.

EU risks trade war with China over electric vehicles – This is how it starts. In the midst of an invasion by Chinese electric cars, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen launched an anti-subsidy investigation Wednesday against Chinese imports. It's a step that risks snowballing into a trade war that could make a tussle over solar panels with Beijing a decade ago look like a tea party. "Global markets are now flooded with cheaper Chinese electric cars. And their price is kept artificially low by huge state subsidies,” von der Leyen said in her annual State of the Union address. “This is distorting our market.” The stakes couldn't be higher: China's massive investments have established it as the dominant maker of the battery technology that powers clean cars. Global sales of electric vehicles are forecast to grow by nearly a third in 2023 alone to more than 14 million units — worth $560 billion — and without fair competition the EU sees its industry losing out.First reported exclusively by POLITICO in June as a key demand from Paris, the move against China delighted French ministers. "I welcome the investigation," Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said in Berlin. "If these subsidies do not comply with the rules of the World Trade Organization, Europe must be able to fight back." German Economy Minister Robert Habeck also welcomed the decision. "It is about unfair competition. It's not about keeping high-performance, low-cost cars out of the European market; it's about looking to see if there are hidden, direct or indirect subsidies that create an unfair competitive advantage," he said at a joint news conference with Le Maire. But the European car industry is worried — especially German auto makers that are most exposed to the vast Chinese market. “From the business point of view it runs the risk of retaliation,” one automotive lobbyist said on condition of anonymity. China has yet to comment, but the China Chamber of Commerce to the EU posted on X (formerly Twitter) to express its "strong concern and opposition" to the probe. That post was retweeted by Wang Lutong, head of the Europe department at the Chinese foreign ministry. With China already controlling 60 percent of global battery production, Brussels fears that, without countermeasures, Chinese companies will gain a stranglehold on EV markets just as major western economies on both sides of the Atlantic commit to tackling pollution by phasing out sales of traditional combustion engine vehicles.

Taiwan Detects Record Number of Chinese Warplanes - Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said it detected 103 Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) warplanes operating around Taiwan from 6 am Sunday to 6 am Monday, the most in a 24-hour period since Taipei began releasing the figures in September 2020.According to The New York Times, the previous daily high was 91, which was recorded on April 10, when China was conducting major drills around the island in response to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) in California. China has significantly stepped up its military activity around Taiwan in response to the island’s growing military and diplomatic ties with the US. Most notable was the massive live-fire exercises that the PLA held in response to then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visiting the island in August 2022.Out of the 103 PLA aircraft reported by the Taiwanese Defense Ministry on Monday, 40 crossed the median line or entered the southwest and southeast corners of Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Taiwan’s ADIZ extends far beyond its airspace, and there’s no indication the PLA aircraft came that close to the island.PLA Aircraft used to avoid crossing the median line, which acts as an informal barrier between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, but that’s changed since Pelosi’s visit. Now, PLA aircraft regularly fly to the Taiwanese side of the Strait.Last week, the Taiwanese Defense Ministry said it detected 68 PLA aircraft in a 24-hour period as the Chinese military was conducting major drills in the western Pacific. The uptick in Chinese activity came after a series of US exercises in the region, including drills with Australia, Japan, and the Philippines in the South China Sea, exercises with Indonesia, and a joint US-Canadian transit of the Taiwan Strait. The US is increasing its military activity in the region and ties with Taiwan in the name of deterrence, but it has brought about a heavier Chinese military presence. Beijing has made clear to the US that Taiwan is a major red line, but Washington shows no sign of backing down.

The Intercept’s Latest Leak Might Deal Irreparable Damage to Pakistani-Chinese Relations -- At the same time as Pakistani officials were negotiating with Russia to import oil and abstaining from anti-Russian UNGA Resolutions alongside China, their country’s arms were being used by Ukraine to kill Russians and therefore undermine China’s diplomatic efforts to freeze the most dangerous conflict since World War II.The Intercept reported on Sunday that “U.S. Helped Pakistan Get IMF Bailout With Secret Arms Deal For Ukraine, Leaked Documents Reveal”, which is its second damning disclosure in as many months after it revealed in August that the US did indeed encourage the ouster of its former premier in spring 2022. The latest leaks allege that Pakistan has been selling arms to the US for transfer to Ukraine since that summer and that the US pressured the IMF to bail Pakistan out this summer as a quid pro quo for that.The sequence of events suggested by The Intercept’s last two reports add credence to Imran Khan’s consistent claims that he was deposed through a combination of American meddling and internal subterfuge as punishment for his truly neutral stance towards the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine. Once his multipolar governmentwas replaced by pro-US proxies, Pakistan instantly reverted back to its traditional status as America’s top proxy in South Asia, following which it cut a deal for arming Kiev.This whole time, however, its officials vehemently denied Indian media reports about its indirect weapons transfers to that country. Pakistan also abstained from anti-Russian UNGA Resolutions and continued trying to negotiate an ultimately unsuccessful energy deal with Moscow. In hindsight, those three moves were nothing but a ruse for misleading Russia and “saving face” before its so-called “iron brothers” in China in the hopes that they wouldn’t think that post-coup Pakistan “defected” to the US.As it turns out, Pakistan was secretly selling arms to China’s systemic rival for over a year already with the intent of perpetuating the same proxy war that Beijing has tried to freeze since February, which represents a blatant betrayal of its decades-long strategic partner. To add insult to injury, it allegedly pushed through the latest deal this summer in exchange for the US pressuring the IMF to bail it out, thus showing that Pakistan already decided on Western sources of aid instead of considering such from China.This insight proves that Pakistan has been functioning as the US’ “Trojan Horse” for duping the Sino–Russo Entente ever since Imran Khan’s scandalous removal from office nearly a year and a half ago. At the same time as its officials were negotiating with Russia to import oil and abstaining from anti-Russian UNGA Resolutions alongside China, their country’s arms were being used by Ukraine to kill Russians and therefore undermine China’s diplomatic efforts to freeze the most dangerous conflict since World War II. For these reasons, neither China nor Russia has any reason to trust Pakistan after The Intercept’s latest leaks, but their officials might still act cordially towards it in public for the sake of optics. Russia can easily disengage from Pakistan since those two hadn’t successfully reached any major investment deals during their prior rapprochement, but China is in a much more difficult position due to Pakistan hosting the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is the Belt & Road Initiative’s (BRI) flagship project.

Trudeau says ‘credible allegations’ tie India to assassination of Sikh leader in Canada --Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Monday that “credible allegations” may tie India to the assassination of a Sikh leader in the country. Trudeau addressed the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian who was a staunch supporter of the creation of a separate Sikh state in Punjab, India, called Khalistan. In a speech to lawmakers in the Canadian House of Commons, Trudeau said that “any involvement of a foreign government in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil is an unacceptable violation of our sovereignty.” Niijar was shot dead by two masked gunmen in June outside a Sikh Gurudwara in Surrey, British Columbia. The Canadian leader said he had informed the leaders of the opposition directly about the allegations as well. “In the strongest possible terms, I continue to urge the government of India to cooperate with Canada to get to the bottom of this matter,” he said. Trudeau added that the incident is “contrary to the fundamental rules by which free, open and democratic societies conduct themselves.” He added that he had shared his concerns over the allegations “directly” with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi last week at the G20 Summit in New Delhi and added that the top priority is that “all steps be taken” to hold the perpetrators of this murder to account.

India expels Canadian diplomat, escalating tensions after Trudeau accuses India in Sikh's killing (AP) — India expelled one of Canada’s top diplomats Tuesday, ramping up a confrontation between the two countries over Canadian accusations that India may have been involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist leader in suburban Vancouver.India, which has dismissed the accusations as absurd, said the expulsion came amid “growing concern at the interference of Canadian diplomats in our internal matters and their involvement in anti-India activities,” according to a statement from its Ministry of External Affairs.Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appeared to try to calm the diplomatic clash Tuesday, telling reporters that Canada is “not looking to provoke or escalate.”“We are simply laying out the facts as we understand them and we want to work with the government of India to lay everything clear and to ensure there are proper processes,” he said. “India and the government of India needs to take this matter with the utmost seriousness.”On Monday, Trudeau said there were “credible allegations” of Indian involvement in the slaying ofHardeep Singh Nijjar, a 45-year-old Sikh leader who was killed by masked gunmen in June in Surrey, outside Vancouver. For years, India has said Nijjar, a Canadian citizen born in India, has links to terrorism.Canada has yet to provide any evidence of Indian involvement, but if true it would mark a major shift for India, whose security and intelligence branches have long been significant players in South Asia, and are suspected in a number of killings in Pakistan. But arranging a killing in Canada, home to nearly 2 million people of Indian descent, would be unprecedented.India, though, has accused Canada for years of giving free reign to Sikh separatists, includingNijjar.

UK inquiry: Migrants awaiting deportation are kept 'in prison-like' conditions at a detention center (AP) — A British inquiry reported Tuesday that migrants awaiting deportation suffered physical and verbal abuse at a government-run detention center, and recommended that no one be kept in such “prison-like” conditions for more than 28 days.Inquiry chairwoman Kate Eves said migrants suffered “shocking treatment” at the Brook House Immigration Removal Center near Gatwick Airport, south of London.Eves said the facility had a “toxic” staff culture, and migrants faced racist and derogatory language, dehumanizing comments and the inappropriate use of force.“The most serious of these incidents involved the application of pressure to a detained man’s neck while he was in extreme distress,” her report said.

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Saturday, September 23, 2023

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