Top Fed officials nod to higher bond yields as cause for caution on rates - (Reuters) - Top ranking Federal Reserve officials indicated Monday that rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which directly influence financing costs for households and businesses, could steer the Fed from further increases in its short-term policy rate and substitute the work done by financial markets for formal monetary policy moves by the central bank. "We are in a sensitive period of risk management, where we have to balance the risk of not having tightened enough, against the risk of policy being too restrictive," Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said, nodding to the rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the need for the central bank to “proceed carefully” with any further increases in the benchmark federal funds rate. “I will remain cognizant of the tightening in financial conditions through higher bond yields and will keep that in mind as I assess the future path of policy,” Jefferson said in remarks to the National Association for Business Economics. The remarks by Jefferson and earlier by Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, one of the Fed system's more influential voices on financial markets, caused investors to undercut the likelihood of further Fed rate increases. Even though policymakers in a set of projections issued last month said one more increase in the benchmark federal funds rate is likely needed this year, the CME Group's FedWatch showed the estimated chance of a rate hike at the Fed's upcoming meeting plummet from around 27% at the start of the day to around 14% after the two officials spoke. The chance of a rate increase at the December meeting fell from around 36% to 24%. "We are getting more and more signals from the different policymakers that the Fed is essentially done with its tightening cycle if conditions remain as tight as they are on the financial front, and if we continue to see the types of slowdown in terms of economic activity that are implicit from this tightening of financial conditions and this tightening of monetary policy," said E-Y Parthenon's Gregory Daco, one of the economists in the room where both Jefferson and Logan spoke. In earlier remarks at the NABE event Logan, former head of the markets team at the New York Fed, said the higher returns being demanded by investors to hold long-term U.S. government debt could offset the need for further increases in the Fed’s policy interest rate. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," said Logan, who has been among the more hawkish officials in supporting the need for continued rate increases. Though neither policymaker declared the fight against high inflation over – indeed each cited risks that could lead the Fed towards more restrictive policy – their remarks were the most definitive accounting yet of how a recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields is being viewed at the Fed. The Fed next meets on Oct. 31–Nov. 1, and data between now and then, including a report Thursday on consumer prices, could still influence the outcome. The outbreak of violence in Israel could also shift global sentiment about the economy, adding another set of risks into the Fed's analysis.
Jefferson says Fed can proceed carefully, mindful of yield rise - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he is watching the increase in Treasury yields as a potential further restraint on the economy even though the rate of inflation remains too high. Officials are "in a position to proceed carefully in assessing the extent of any additional policy firming that may be necessary," Jefferson said Monday in a speech at a National Association for Business Economics conference in Dallas. "Looking ahead, I will remain cognizant of the tightening in financial conditions through higher bond yields and will keep that in mind as I assess the future path of policy." After raising the benchmark federal funds rate by more than five percentage points over the past year and a half, a majority of US central bankers at their September policy meeting projected it would be appropriate to enact one more quarter-point increase by the end of 2023. Yields on US government 10-year notes are up about 40 basis points since the September meeting. Fed officials including San Francisco's Mary Daly and Lorie Logan of Dallas noted the recent tightening of financial conditions may substitute for additional rate hikes. "We are in a sensitive period of risk management, where we have to balance the risk of not having tightened enough, against the risk of policy being too restrictive," Jefferson said. Futures markets show less than 20% chance of a 25 basis-point increase at the upcoming Oct. 31-Nov. 1 policy meeting, and similar odds on a hike at the final meeting of the year in December. Answering questions after his speech, the vice chair said he wouldn't want to prejudge how the Fed would respond to economic developments. "Our responsibility is to bring inflation down to 2% and to be nimble with regards to what may or may not be happening in the economy as we go forward," Jefferson said. "I would want the public to know that we're going to be mindful, whatever is happening, and we will use data in real time to pick an appropriate response." In spite of rising borrowing costs, the US economy has shown surprising resilience. The labor market added 336,000 jobs in September, according to fresh data published Friday. Jefferson in his speech listed risks on both sides of the outlook, from the potential impact of slower growth in China and Europe on the US to a labor market that might remain "too strong to achieve further disinflation."
Report: Biden Considering Huge $100 Billion Ukraine Spending Package - President Biden is considering asking Congress for a massive $100 billion spending package for the Ukraine war, The Telegraph reported on Saturday.The idea of the huge spending package would be to fund the proxy war through the 2024 election without having to worry about the growing opposition to the policy in Congress, as the majority of the House and the Senate currently still support arming Ukraine.“The ‘big package’ idea is firmly supported by many throughout the administration,” a source familiar with discussions on the matter told The Telegraph. “Supporters of Ukraine want this to be a one-and-done big bill, and then not have to deal with it until after the next election.”Defense News recently reported that multiple senators have also proposed passing a massive Ukraine aid package to get through a whole year. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) put the price tag at $70 billion.An unnamed Biden administration official told The Telegraph that the White House is “not making any decisions about whether to do one big package or about how much it would be” until after a new House speaker is elected to replace Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), which is expected to happen on Wednesday.While the majority of Congress supports more spending on the Ukraine war, it could be difficult to bring a massive aid package to the floor of the House for a vote due to the sway GOP opponents of the policy have over the speaker. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) launched the effort to oust McCarthy after accusing him of cutting a secret deal with the Democrats on Ukraine aid.If a $100 billion aid package is authorized by Congress, it would bring total US spending on the proxy war to about $213 billion.
US Announces $200 Million Arms Package for Ukraine - The US on Wednesday announced a new $200 million arms package for Ukraine that includes HIMARS ammunition, artillery shells, anti-tank weapons, and other equipment.The package was announced as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was in Brussels hosting a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a gathering that includes military leaders from about 50 countries. For the first time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attended the meeting.At the meeting, Austin insisted the US could continue fueling the proxy war in Ukraine while also sending more military aid to Israel as it’s expected to invade Gaza in response to the Hamas attack on southern Israel. “We can do both, and we will do both,” he said.Zelensky expressed concern about the situation in Israel and Gaza, diverting attention from Ukraine, saying, “of course, everybody’s afraid, and I think also Russia’s counting on it, on dividing support.” Wednesday’s meeting marked the first time a Ukraine Defense Contact Group gathering was attended by Gen. Charles Q. Brown, who recently replaced Gen. Mark Milley as the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the highest-ranking officer in the US military.According to the Pentagon, the $200 million package for Ukraine used funds made available by a Pentagon “accounting error” that overvalued previous arms shipped into the conflict. As the White House has been struggling to get Congress to authorize more Ukraine spending, the Pentagon has said it has about $5 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the US to ship weapons straight from its own military stockpiles.The arms in the $200 million package include:
- AIM-9M missiles for air defense
- Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) equipment
- Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
- 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds
- Precision aerial munitions
- Electronic warfare equipment
- Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles
- AT-4 anti-armor systems
- Small arms and more than 16 million rounds of small arms ammunition
- Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing
- Spare parts, training munitions, maintenance, and other field equipment
Blinken Deletes Tweet Encouraging Ceasefire Between Israel and Hamas - Secretary of State Antony Blinken deleted a tweet where he said he was “encouraging” efforts to push for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.Blinken made the post on X after he spoke with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Saturday. “I encouraged Türkiye’s advocacy for a ceasefire and the release of all hostages held by Hamas immediately,” Blinken wrote in the now-deleted tweet.The State Department’s readout of the call did not mention a ceasefire but said Blinken “encouraged Türkiye’s continued engagement and highlighted the United States’ unwavering focus on halting the attacks by Hamas and securing the release of all hostages.”The State Department’s US Office of Palestinian Affairs also deleted a tweet calling for restraint and de-escalation. “We unequivocally condemn the attack of Hamas terrorists and the loss of life that has incurred. We urge all sides to refrain from violence and retaliatory attacks. Terror and violence solve nothing,” the office wrote on X.The Biden administration has come under criticism for the deleted tweets despite the fact that it’s strongly backing Israel. Instead of pushing for an end to the bloodshed, the administration has sent new military aid and deployed warships as Israel has ordered a “complete siege” of Gazaand is bombarding the enclave, one of the most densely populated places in the world.
Biden says at least 11 Americans among those killed in Israel, warns of hostages President Biden on Monday announced that the number of Americans killed in terrorist attacks against Israel had risen to 11, and he warned that American citizens may be among those being held hostage by the militant group Hamas. “As we continue to account for the horrors of the appalling terrorist assault against Israel this weekend and the hundreds of innocent civilians who were murdered, we are seeing the immense scale and reach of this tragedy,” Biden said in a statement. “Sadly, we now know that at least 11 American citizens were among those killed — many of whom made a second home in Israel.” U.S. officials are still working to confirm whether Americans are among those being held by Hamas, but said “it is likely” that is the case. “I have directed my team to work with their Israeli counterparts on every aspect of the hostage crisis, including sharing intelligence and deploying experts from across the United States government to consult with and advise Israeli counterparts on hostage recovery efforts,” Biden said. John Kirby, a White House spokesperson on national security issues, told reporters on a call later Monday that the administration can’t confirm Hamas is holding Americans hostage, but that there are still many Americans who are unaccounted for. “So I can’t say definitely that we know Americans are being held hostage,” Kirby said. “That said, we have to accept the grim possibility that some are.” The State Department is providing consular assistance to Americans who are currently in Israel and urged those in the area to follow the guidance of local authorities. More than 1,000 people have died since Hamas, a militant group that controls Gaza, launched attacks against Israel, triggering a response by Israeli forces. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Saturday that Israel is “at war” with Hamas following the initial attacks. Biden has spoken multiple times with Netanyahu since the attacks first unfolded, and he met earlier Monday with his national security team. The president has vowed to assist Israel as it deals with the fallout of the attacks, and the U.S. has already repositioned military assets in the region and sent some munitions to Israel. In Monday’s statement, Biden called the U.S. and Israel “inseparable partners.” “This is not some distant tragedy. The ties between Israel and the United States run deep. It is personal for so many American families who are feeling the pain of this attack as well as the scars inflicted through millennia of antisemitism and persecution of Jewish people,” Biden said in Monday’s statement.
US Deploys Aircraft Carrier Strike Group to Support Israel -Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced on Sunday that he’s ordered the deployment of an aircraft carrier strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean to show US support for Israel amid fighting in Gaza and southern Israel.The strike group is led by the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford. Austin said the group also includes the “Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy (CG 60), as well as the Arleigh-Burke-class guided missile destroyers USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116), USS Ramage (DDG 61), USS Carney (DDG 64), and USS Roosevelt (DDG 80).”On top of the deployment, Austin said the US is increasing its presence of fighter jets in the region. “We have also taken steps to augment US Air Force F-35, F-15, F-16, and A-10 fighter aircraft squadrons in the region,” he said. “The US maintains ready forces globally to further reinforce this deterrence posture if required.”The US has shown strong support in the wake of the Hamas attack on southern Israel and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declaring Israel is “at war.” Biden told Netanyahu on Sunday that additional military aid was on its way, and Austin said it includes “munitions” for the Israeli military.Austin said the steps he announced “underscores the United States’ ironclad support for the Israel Defense Forces and the Israeli people.”In just two days of fighting, over 1,000 people are dead, including over 600 Israelis and over 400 Palestinians. The situation is expected to escalate as Israel might launch a ground invasion of Gaza.
Biden Tells Netanyahu More Military Aid Is on Its Way - President Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday for the second time since Hamas launched an operation in southern Israel and said that more US military aid is on its way.According to the White House, President Biden “conveyed that additional assistance for the Israeli Defense Forces is now on its way to Israel with more to follow over the coming days.”Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in a statement that the US “will be rapidly providing the Israel Defense Forces with additional equipment and resources, including munitions. The first security assistance will begin moving today and arriving in the coming days.”Israel already receives $3.8 billion in military aid each year from the US. It’s unclear how the US will be funding the new arms it’s sending to Israel, which will likely be pulled from US military stockpiles.In the call with Netanyahu, President Biden also pledged “his full support for the Government and people of Israel in the face of an unprecedented and appalling assault by Hamas terrorists.”Israel has been bombarding Gaza in response to the Hamas assault, and major casualties have been incurred on both sides in just two days of fighting. The situation will likely significantly escalate as Israel is expected to launch a ground invasion of Gaza with support from the US.
US Scrambles to Get More Arms to Israel - As Israel has declared a “complete siege” on Gaza in response to the Hamas attack on southern Israel, the US is scrambling to get more weapons in the hands of the Israelis. A Pentagon official told POLITICO on Monday that planes carrying new military aid for Israel have “already taken off.” The US is sending air defense and munitions. According to media reports, Israel has requested precision-guided munitions, small-diameter bombs, and interceptors for its Iron Dome missile defense system. Israel receives $3.8 billion in military aid each year from the US, including $500 million to fund air defense development and $3.3 billion for Foreign Military Financing, which gives foreign governments money to buy US arms. Neither type of aid allows direct weapons shipments from US military stockpiles, but according to POLITICO, the US has $100 million available for the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which does.The Pentagon is working to determine what arms in the US stockpile could be made available and is also pressing the arms industry to expedite deliveries of weapons Israel has already purchased. The effort comes as the US is expecting Israel to launch a ground invasion of Gaza, which will incur a huge amount of civilian casualties.Israel could start to compete with Ukraine for the types of weapons it needs from the US. Right now, it’s focusing on pounding Gaza with airstrikes, which requires munitions Ukraine doesn’t use, but a ground assault would require 155mm artillery rounds, which are in short supply since the US has poured millions of shells into Ukraine.US Army Secretary Christine Wormuth is calling on Congress to approve additional funding to ensure the US can sustain both wars. “One thing that is really important in terms of the munitions in particular and our ability to support both potentially the Israelis and the Ukrainians simultaneously is additional funding from Congress to be able to increase our capacity, in terms of our capacity to expand production and then to also pay for the munitions themselves,” she said. Congress isn’t expected to authorize more spending on Ukraine or Israel until a new House speaker is elected, which will likely happen this week. According to The Messenger, House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) said Congress is discussing a massive military aid package for Ukraine and Israel that would also include funds for Taiwan. “There’s discussion about putting Israel funding, Ukraine funding, maybe Taiwan funding and finally border security,” he said.
'Planes have already taken off': U.S. sends Israel air defense, munitions after Hamas attack - The Biden administration is surging weapons to Israel, rapidly sending air defenses and munitions in response to Israeli officials’ urgent requests for aid, a senior Pentagon official said Monday. “Planes have already taken off,” the senior official, who was granted anonymity in order to speak about sensitive plans, told reporters. The Defense Department is working across its enterprise, including U.S. Central Command, to determine which arms in U.S. inventory can be made quickly available for Israel’s defense, as well as pressing industry to expedite the delivery of pending Israeli orders for military equipment, the official said. DOD officials are in “constant, ongoing contact” with their Israeli counterparts as the needs of the conflict evolve. The Pentagon is using existing authorities and funds to make the moves, and does not yet need to ask Congress for additional aid, the official said. The senior official condemned the surprise attacks on Israel by Hamas over the weekend as “unprecedented” and “ISIS-level savagery,” referring to the Islamic State militant group, which is known for posting graphic videos of prisoner executions to social media. “Hamas militants going across Israel, murdering children in front of their parents, massacring with indiscriminate violence, music festivals, burning down entire houses while families sheltered in their bunkers. This is different. And we want to be very clear about what that is,” the official said. Israel’s appeal for more arms came into focus earlier Monday, after Biden administration officials briefed congressional leaders and the heads of security-focused committees on the surprise attacks by Hamas, according to two people familiar with the meeting. During the unclassified call, officials told lawmakers that America’s closest ally in the Middle East urgently needed precision-guided munitions and more interceptors for the Iron Dome air defense system. One of the people familiar with the call said Israel was also seeking more U.S.-made small-diameter bombs. The request for emergency military aid promises to test the capabilities of the House and Senate at a moment of extraordinary political instability in Washington, following the ouster of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) as House speaker, and strained supply chains for arms manufacturers as a result of the war in Ukraine.
White House Plans to Request Military Aid for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan - The White House has conveyed to members of Congress that it will request an emergency supplemental funding package that will include military aid for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan, as well as additional funding for border security, NBC News reported on Wednesday.Administration officials said the request will also include funds to manufacture weapons to replace what’s being sent overseas as the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel and the US military buildup aimed at China are a boon for US arms makers.The Washington Post first reported on Monday that the White House planned to link aid for Ukraine and Israel in an effort to “jam the far right,” referring to House Republicans who are against the proxy war in Ukraine but are staunch Israel supporters. Many Republicans who oppose funding Ukraine do favor sending weapons to Taiwan, which began receiving unprecedented military aid from the US this year.Some Republicans have expressed opposition to linking Ukraine and Israel, even those who support sending weapons to both countries. “I support both, but I think it’d be a mistake to bundle the two,” said Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), according to POLITICO. “But it sounds like the administration wants to put the two together. I think that’d be a mistake.”The size of the supplemental package President Biden will request is unclear. He previously asked for an additional $24 billion to fund the Ukraine war, but it was never approved by Congress. According to The Telegraph, the administration has been discussing the idea of a full-year spending package for Ukraine that could be as large as $100 billion, an idea popular among hawks in the Senate.The House won’t take up any new legislation until it gets a new speaker, which appears imminent. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) won the GOP nomination on Wednesday. A full House vote to confirm Scalise is expected to happen soon, but it’s unclear exactly when.
Netanyahu Tells Biden 'We Have to Go' Into Gaza, Rules Out Negotiations - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told President Biden in a phone call on Sunday that Israel had to launch a ground invasion into the besieged Gaza Strip and ruled out the idea of negotiations, Axios reported on Monday.“We have to go in. We can’t negotiate now,” Netanyahu told Biden, according to US and Israeli sources. On the same day, US officials told the media that they expected Israel to launch an invasion within 48 hours.The report said President Biden did not press Netanyahu or try to convince him not to go through with the ground incursion as the US has shown no interest in calling for de-escalation. Secretary of State Antony Blinken deleted a tweet where he said he was “encouraging” Turkish efforts to push for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.Since the Sunday Biden-Netanyahu phone call, Israel announced it called up 300,000 reservists, ordered a “complete siege” on Gaza, and said they were fighting “human animals” in the enclave, which is populated by over two million people, including about one million children.Israel has also kept up relentless airstrikes in Gaza since Hamas launched its attack on Saturday. Since the Hamas attack was launched on Saturday,nearly 2,000 people have been killed, including about 1,000 Israelis and 900 Palestinians.
Sen. Graham Says 'We're in a Religious War,' Calls to 'Level' Gaza - Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on Tuesday declared that “we’re in a religious war” and called for Israel to “level” the Gaza Strip, home to over 2 million people, including about 1 million children.“We’re in a religious war here. I am with Israel. Do whatever the hell you have to do to defend yourself. Level the place,” Graham said on Fox News. The hawkish senator posted a clip of his call for the destruction of Gaza on X. Since Hamas launched an attack on southern Israel, Graham has been leading the charge in the US, calling for major escalations. On Monday, he said the US should bomb Iran if Hamas kills Israelis it has captured and brought into Gaza. “For every Israeli or American hostage executed by Hamas, we should take down an Iranian oil refinery,” Graham said. “The only way you’re gonna keep this war from escalating is to hold Iran accountable.” Graham has said Iran was involved in the Hamas even though the Israeli military has said it has no evidence to support the claim. Hamas and Iran have also denied any Iranian involvement in the operation.“I am confident this was planned and funded by the Iranians,” he added. “Hamas is a bunch of animals who deserve to be treated like animals … If I was Israel, I would go in on the ground. There is no truce to be had here. I would dismantle Hamas.”US, Israeli Lawmakers Call for Genocide of Palestinians in Gaza - Lawmakers in the US and Israel have called for the mass slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza in response to the Hamas attack on southern Israel that has killed at least 1,000 Israelis. So far, Israeli retaliation has killed 900 Palestinians, a number that’s growing amid Israel’s bombardment of Gaza.Revital “Tally” Gotliv, a member of Israel’s Knesset and the Likud party,called for Israel to use its nuclear weapons, which Israel has never formally acknowledged exist.“Jericho Missile! Jericho Missile! Strategic alert. Before considering the introduction of forces. Doomsday weapon! This is my opinion. May God preserve all our strength,” Gotliv wrote on X on Monday.In another post, she urged for Israel to use “Doomsday weapons” and “everything in its arsenal.” The following day, she continued to call for a massive strike on Gaza, which is home to over two million people, about half of whom are children.“Only an explosion that shakes the Middle East will restore this country’s dignity, strength and security!” she wrote. “It’s time to kiss doomsday. Shooting powerful missiles without limit. Not flattening a neighborhood. Crushing and flattening Gaza… without mercy! without mercy!”Over in the US, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) also called for mass slaughter in Gaza.CNN’s Jake Tapper asked Rubio: “Is there a way for Israel to destroy Hamas without causing massive casualties against the innocent people of Gaza? There are more than two million people in the Gaza Strip and roughly a million of them are children.” Rubio replied: “Yeah, I don’t think there’s any way Israel can be expected to co-exist or find some diplomatic off-ramp with these savages. I mean, these are people, as you’ve been reporting and others have seen, that deliberately targeted teenage girls, women, children, the elderly … just horrifying things, and I don’t think we know the full extent of it yet. I mean, there’s more to come in the days and weeks ahead. You can’t exist. They have to be eradicated.”
Rep. McCaul Confirms That Egypt Warned Israel Before Hamas Attack - Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Wednesday that Egypt warned Israel of a potential attack three days before Hamas launched its incursion into southern Israel, confirming earlier reports. “We know that Egypt has warned the Israelis three days prior that an event like this could happen,” McCaul said after a closed-door intelligence briefing. “I don’t want to get too much into classified, but a warning was given. I think the question was at what level.” Shortly after the Hamas attack was launched, an Egyptian intelligence official told the AP that Cairo had given a warning that something was coming. “We have warned them an explosion of the situation is coming, and very soon, and it would be big. But they underestimated such warnings,” the official said. Another report from Ynet said Egypt’s Intelligence Minister General Abbas Kamel called Netanyahu just 10 days before the Hamas attack, warning that militants in Gaza were planning “something unusual, a terrible operation.” The Hamas operation has raised questions about how Israel could have been taken so off guard and not known about such a large attack. Hamas launched the attack from Gaza, which has been under Israeli blockade since 2007 and is constantly under surveillance.
White House slams GOP chairwoman’s Israel comments - The White House on Monday slammed Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel after she called the terrorist attacks in Israel over the weekend a “great opportunity” for Republican candidates to contrast their agenda with the Biden administration. “At least nine Americans have lost their lives in these brutal terrorist attacks against the State of Israel. Hundreds of additional innocent people are dead. While apparently some individuals like Ronna McDaniel consider this loss of life and pain a ‘great opportunity,’ most Americans see it as a horrific tragedy,” deputy press secretary Andrew Bates said in a statement. “As the administration provides assistance to the Israeli Defense Force, this is a moment in which all Americans, regardless of political views, should stand shoulder to shoulder with one of our closest allies,” Bates continued. “No one can ever welcome this kind of hideous behavior or try to divide our country when we need to be united.” Bates’s statement came after McDaniel appeared Saturday on Fox News in the aftermath of the attacks in Israel launched by the militant terrorist group Hamas. In the interview, a Fox anchor asked McDaniel about the response of several Republican presidential candidates who were quick to blame Biden’s foreign policy for the violence unfolding in the Middle East and call for support for Israel. “This is a great opportunity for our candidates to contrast where Republicans have stood with Israel time and time again and Joe Biden has been weak,” McDaniel said. McDaniel had previously posted multiple times on social media condemning the terrorist attacks against Israel. “The RNC and Chairman McDaniel have long been fierce advocates for Israel, its people, and condemned the attacks immediately. It’s despicable that the media is twisting Chairman McDaniel’s words and providing cover for Democrats that have repeatedly attacked Israel’s right to exist,” RNC Spokesperson Emma Vaughn said in a statement Monday.
Tlaib, Bush criticized by Democrats over statements calling for end to Israel support -Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and Cori Bush (D-Mo.) are facing criticism from fellow Democrats over weekend statements in which they each labeled Israel as an apartheid state and called for the U.S. to end funding to the nation, amid a surprise attack by Hamas that killed hundreds. Tlaib said she continues to “grieve the Palestinian and Israeli lives lost yesterday, today, and every day,” before calling for “dismantling the apartheid system that creates the suffocating, dehumanizing conditions that can lead to resistance.” She has previously criticized the Israeli government and had denounced a House resolution supporting Israel in a floor speech in July.Tlaib, who is of Palestinian heritage, also called for lifting the blockade of the Gaza Strip and for “ending the occupation” in her lengthy statement.“The failure to recognize the violent reality of living under siege, occupation, and apartheid makes no one safer. No person, no child anywhere should have to suffer or live in fear of violence. We cannot ignore the humanity in each other,” she said. “As long as our country provides billions in unconditional funding to support the apartheid government, this heartbreaking cycle of violence will continue,” she continued.Bush also issued similar comments in a statement Saturday, in which she condemned the targeting of civilians and said she was “heartbroken” by the violence. She also called for the end of U.S. support for Israel.“As part of achieving a just and lasting peace, we must do our part to stop this violence and trauma by ending U.S. government support for Israeli military occupation and apartheid,” she said.Tlaib’s and Bush’s remarks were quickly met with pushback from both the right and the left, including two Democrat lawmakers. In comments to Jewish Insider, Reps. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) condemned the lawmakers’ statements. “U.S. aid to Israel is and should be unconditional, and never m ore so than in this moment of critical need,” Torres said in a statement to Jewish Insider. “Shame on anyone who glorifies as ‘resistance’ the largest single-day mass murder of Jews since the Holocaust. It is reprehensible and repulsive.”
Progressives face backlash over response to Israel attacks - Progressives are facing backlash over their initial responses to the attacks on Israel by Hamas militants, revealing the degree to which they’re at odds with others in the Democratic caucus over the issue. Members of the Squad such as Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and Cori Bush (D-Mo.) took heat from fellow Democrats this week over statements criticized for being too tepid in the wake of the violent attacks against Israeli civilians. Meanwhile, after mounting pressure, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) condemned the “bigotry and callousness” at a pro-Palestinian rally aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) in New York City. The condemnation directed at certain segments of the left underscores the fissures within the Democratic Party when it comes to Israel. It also suggests progressives will have to navigate an increasingly difficult political environment in which they will be expected to unequivocally support Israel’s right to exist while also advocating for Palestinian rights. “The challenge is to continue to respond, as I think a lot of progressive members have already done … to acknowledge the common humanity of all of us, of both people,” Matt Duss, a former senior foreign policy adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), told The Hill. “We’re going to be getting to a moment where some people are going to be required to show real courage and take a page from Congresswoman Barbara Lee in the wake of 9/11,” said Duss, referring to the California progressive’s vote against the invasion of Afghanistan. “To say, let’s think about this a little bit. We could be starting something that we’re not quite ready for, quite sure about,” he said. Bush and Tlaib, the only Palestinian American in Congress, were among the most harshly criticized in the immediate aftermath of the initial wave of attacks in Israel. Tlaib suggested withholding United States support to fund Israel’s “apartheid government,” a comment that infuriated fellow lawmakers who found it offensive as the death toll continued to rise. She also categorized the terrorist attack as part of a “resistance” effort. Bush, an equally outspoken House progressive, echoed Tlaib’s sentiments. Some voices on the left saw their public remarks as appropriate calls for de-escalation that recognized the plight of both sides. They argued for an acknowledgment of suffering among civilians in both camps and denounced Hamas as a terrorist organization. “Rep. Tlaib and Rep. Bush both issued statements that mourned the loss of Israeli and Palestinian civilian lives, and then said we need to address the root causes of violence to get to peace, and they are now being attacked,” said Beth Miller, the political director of Jewish Voice for Peace Action, a progressive Jewish group.
Tuberville won’t bend on military blockade amid Israel crisis - Sen. Tommy Tuberville is not relenting from his monthslong blockade of military nominations over the Biden administration’s abortion policy — even in the face of one of America’s closest allies going to war. After Hamas attacked Israel, Senate Democrats said it was past time for several top-level military nominees to be approved. But a Tuberville spokesperson confirmed Sunday that the senator’s position remains: Democrats must move top nominees individually until the Pentagon revokes its policy of covering travel costs for troops seeking an abortion across state lines. Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) told POLITICO Saturday that America needs a Senate-confirmed chief of naval operations amid the chaos in Israel. Tuberville spokesperson Steven Stafford responded Sunday: “Sen. Schatz should do what Coach did and file a cloture petition,” referring to the senator, a former football coach. Typically, military promotions are processed en masse, but individual senators have the leverage to require roll call votes. The Senate would have time for little else if it confirmed them all individually, so Tuberville’s blanket objection has effectively stalled the typically uncontroversial promotions process. As a result, over 300 nominees are in limbo, including two picks for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and top officers slated to command U.S. forces in the Middle East. “The severity of the crisis in Israel underscores the foolishness of Senator Tuberville’s blockade,” Senate Armed Services Chair Jack Reed said in a statement Sunday. “The United States needs seamless military leadership in place to handle dangerous situations like this and Senator Tuberville is denying it. “This is no time for petty political theater, and I again urge Republican colleagues to help actively end Senator Tuberville’s damaging blockade,” the Rhode Island Democrat added. “The time for talking is over.” It’s unclear whether Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will force action on some critical nominees, but the crisis in Israel could increase pressure on Tuberville and the Senate to move. “This isn’t a question of Democrats amping up pressure,” said a Senate Democratic aide, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “The reality of what’s actually happening in the real world [is] making his holds more dangerous with each passing day.”
Ocasio-Cortez calls out ‘bigotry’ at pro-Palestine rally in NYC - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) blasted a pro-Palestine rally in New York City over the weekend as promoting “bigotry” amid the ongoing fighting between Israel and Hamas.Supporters for Israel and Palestine gathered in demonstrations across the country after Hamas launched a massive attack against Israel Saturday. Groups supporting Palestinians gathered in Times Square — a demonstration that was also denounced by New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and Mayor Eric Adams (D).“It should not be hard to shut down hatred and antisemitism where we see it. That is a core tenet of solidarity,” Ocasio-Cortez said in a statement obtained by Politico. “The bigotry and callousness expressed in Times Square on Sunday were unacceptable and harmful in this devastating moment. It also did not speak for the thousands of New Yorkers who are capable of rejecting both Hamas’ horrifying attacks against innocent civilians as well as the grave injustices and violence Palestinians face under occupation,” she said.The Hill has reached out to Ocasio-Cortez’s office for comment.
Trump risks GOP blowback with Netanyahu remarks - Former President Trump risks potential backlash in the Republican presidential primary over his criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the wake of the Hamas terror attacks in Israel. In a speech Wednesday, Trump accused Netanyahu of “letting us down” in 2020 just before the U.S. killed a top Iranian general. Trump also suggested that the Biden administration and Israeli leaders’ public discussions helped Hezbollah, which the U.S. designates as a terror organization, plan further attacks on Israel. Then on Thursday, Trump said in an interview that Israel “wouldn’t have had to be prepared” if he were in the White House. Additionally, the former president referred to Israel’s defense minister as a “jerk.” The comments have already opened Trump up to criticism from rival GOP presidential candidates including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and his former Vice President Mike Pence. Additionally, the comments could threaten to attract more criticism from other members of the GOP, which is dominantly pro-Israel. “I think it’s a strategic mistake,” said Alex Stroman, a Republican strategist. “If I was a Republican candidate, I would probably be running ads [using Trump’s comments against him].” DeSantis took to X, the platform formally known as Twitter, on Wednesday to criticize Trump and tout his own position on Israel. “Terrorists have murdered at least 1,200 Israelis and 22 Americans and are holding more hostage, so it is absurd that anyone, much less someone running for President, would choose now to attack our friend and ally, Israel, much less praise Hezbollah terrorists as ‘very smart,’” the governor wrote on the platform. DeSantis further responded to Trump’s remarks Thursday during an interview with Fox News. “This is a time to be standing with Israel,” DeSantis said. “And to be attacking the prime minister and the defense minister just makes no sense.” On Thursday evening, DeSantis’s communications director hit the Trump campaign over their response to the criticism of the former president’s comments. “No matter what rhetorical gymnastics act his campaign team tries to perform to attempt to once again cover for him, nobody can change the fact that last night Donald Trump showed his true colors by insulting Israelis during one of their darkest hours and simultaneously complimenting one of the terrorist groups that continue to pose a grave threat to Israelis and Americans alike. It is disturbing and disqualifying,”
Cheney slams ‘dangerous’ Trump for attacking Israel, praising Hezbollah in Wednesday speech --Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) called out former President Trump Thursday for his remarks criticizing Israel and calling the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah “very smart.” “After Hamas slaughters hundreds of Jewish families, and Israel confronts an unprecedented security crisis, Donald Trump attacks the Israeli govt and praises Hezbollah terrorists,” Cheney wrote on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter. “Are Republicans really going to nominate this dangerous man to be President of the United States?” she added. Trump delivered a speech in West Palm Beach, Fla., Wednesday expressing his frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and praising the intellect of Hezbollah, a Lebanese-based militant group that reportedly fired an anti-tank missile at Israeli army positions in recent days. “You know, Hezbollah is very smart,” Trump said, after describing how the group had picked up on U.S. military assessments that Israel was vulnerable in the north. “They’re all very smart.” Trump also complained that Netanyahu had failed to help the U.S. drone strike in 2020 that killed Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian general who led the elite Quds Force, but then claimed credit for it after the fact. “I’ll never forget that Bibi Netanyahu let us down,” Trump said. “That was a very terrible thing.” Trump has also argued that the Hamas attack on Israel over the weekend wouldn’t have happened if he were still in the White House. Cheney has been among the most frequent GOP critics of Trump for years. She was among the 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, and then was one of two GOP members of the House committee that investigated the attack.
Elon Musk flags Iranian supreme leader’s post on Hamas attack on Israel -- Elon Musk on Sunday flagged a post from Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that celebrated the attacks by Hamas on Israel and said Khamenei’s statement made clear that Iran’s goal is eradicating Israel.“Khamenei’s official position is clear that the eradication of Israel is the actual goal, not just supporting Palestinians,” Musk wrote in a post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “That will not happen,” Musk continued. “All that actually happens, decade after decade, is a never-ending cycle of violence and vengeance. Stoking the fires of hatred isn’t working. Perhaps it is time to consider something else.” Musk’s statement was a response to Khamenei’s post, which lauded the indiscriminate killing of Israeli concertgoers and included video footage of them fleeing for their lives as gun shots were heard in the background. “God willing, the cancer of the usurper Zionist regime will be eradicated at the hands of the Palestinian people and the Resistance forces throughout the region. #AlAqsaStorm,” Khamenei posted, along with video footage.ZAKA, an Israeli nongovernmental volunteer recovery organization, confirmed 260 deaths at the music festival. There were also reports of abductions at the concert. The music festival was intended to celebrate the Jewish holiday of Sukkot.The supreme leader’s post had a warning that stated “This Post violated the X Rules. However, X has determined that it may be in the public’s interest for the Post to remain accessible.”
McCarthy calls on Biden to refreeze $6B in Iranian funds - Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is calling on President Biden to refreeze $6 billion in Iranian funds in the wake of the recent attacks on Israel by Hamas. In a lengthy address laying out a five-step plan to address the escalating conflict in Israel, McCarthy took aim at the Biden administration for its prisoner swap with Iran and its decision to unfreeze $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for the freedom of five wrongfully detained American citizens. “Biden’s policy on appeasement, including money for hostage deals, must come to an end,” McCarthy said Monday. “His policy has only emboldened terrorists. And handing over $6 billion to Iran only helps the cause. In explaining that to members of Congress, they said they had provisions to refreeze the money if Iran has done something wrong. They should freeze the money back today.” The $6 billion has become a rallying cry for critics of the Biden administration in the wake of the attacks on Israel. Many Republicans say that the move freed up resources for Iran’s military spending and support of terrorism. McCarthy, who has opened the door to potentially returning to the Speakership amid the bloodshed in Israel, also called on the Biden administration to focus on getting any Americans who may have been taken as hostages home. “Three years ago there was not war in Europe or in Israel, but today there is,” he said. “The United States must reinstate the maximum pressure campaign against Iran. Refreezing the $6 billion is only the start.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken had pushed back on the Iranian criticism while making his rounds on Sunday news shows over the weekend. He emphasized that “not a single dollar” has been spent from the funds that have been unfrozen for the prisoner swap. “The facts are these — no U.S. taxpayer dollars were involved,” Blinken said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “These were Iranian resources that Iran had accumulated from the sale of its oil that were stuck in a bank in South Korea. They have had from day one, under our law, under our sanctions, the right to use these monies for humanitarian purposes.”
Five things to know about the $6 billion Iran deal now back in spotlight - The bloodshed in Israel and Gaza has commanded the world’s attention. But it has also returned focus to a recent deal between the Biden administration and Iran. Critics say it provided a massive cash infusion to a key American adversary and may even have contributed to the Hamas attack. Defenders say the two issues are separate and that the administration did the right thing. The core of the controversy is a deal the Biden administration reached with Iran to secure the release of five Americans. The outlines of that deal were announced in August, and the five Americans were freed in mid-September. The Biden administration considered all five Americans to have been wrongfully detained. Two of the five were not publicly identified. The others were Emad Shargi, Morad Tahbaz and Siamak Namazi. In return, five Iranians held in the United States were also allowed to leave and — crucially — $6 billion in previously frozen Iranian assets was freed up. The money had been in South Korea, and banks were reluctant to transfer it for fear of running afoul of sanctions. Under the deal, the money was transferred to Doha, Qatar, where it can be used by Iran for certain approved purchases. The deal came under criticism at the time, and it is now back in the spotlight because of Iran’s long-standing support of Hamas. So America gave Iran $6 billion? No. The $6 billion was always Iranian money. Some critics have described the money as coming from American taxpayers. It did not. In addition, Iran is not at liberty to do whatever it pleases with the money. Its use is supposed to be tightly limited to humanitarian purposes and the purchase of food or medicine. Put simply, the money in Qatar functions like credit. The Iranians can place orders for humanitarian goods. Those goods will then be delivered to Iran, and the purchase price will be transferred from the accounts in Qatar to the vendor. “The facts of this arrangement are when this money arrives in these accounts in Qatar, it will be held there under strict oversight by the United States Treasury Department and the money can only be used for humanitarian purposes,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said at a Sept. 12 press briefing. “We will remain vigilant in watching the spending of those funds and have the ability to freeze them again if we need to.” Administration officials have also said none of the money has been spent yet.
US expresses shock at new images of Hamas atrocities: ‘Depravity, defies comprehension’ - Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed revulsion at photographic evidence released Thursday showing the atrocities committed by Hamas against civilians in Israel, including young children and babies. “It’s hard to find the right words,” Blinken said of the images shared by the Israeli government, which he said “were new to me, and I think new to our team.” “It’s beyond what anyone would ever want to imagine. Much less actually see, and God forbid experience. A baby and infant riddled with bullets. Soldiers beheaded. Young people burned alive in their cars or in their hideaway rooms,” he said. “I could go on, but it’s simply depravity, in the worst imaginable way, it almost defies comprehension.” The secretary was speaking shortly after the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted graphic images on X, formerly called Twitter, which gave visual support to some of the grisliest descriptions of atrocities committed by Hamas as it terrorized Israeli villages beginning Saturday morning. The Israeli government said the photos shared on X were taken from the community of Kfar Azza, in southern Israel. Hamas, recognized as a terrorist group by the United States, controls Gaza, a narrow strip of land bordering Egypt, Israel and the Mediterranean Sea that is home to more than 2 million people. Israel has cut off supplies of electricity, fuel, food and water to Gaza, and the United Nations has warned of a humanitarian crisis. Blinken did not specifically address claims made by Israeli soldiers and officials that Hamas decapitated babies, but he described the group as carrying out “depravity and inhumanity … at babies, at small children, at young adults, at elderly people, at people with disabilities, the list goes on.” “And on a basic human level, how anyone cannot be revolted and cannot reject what they’ve seen, and what the world has seen, it’s beyond me,” he added.
Rep. McCaul Says a House Speaker Is Needed to 'Replenish' Israel's Iron Dome - Rep. Michael McCaul on Sunday said the House needed a speaker to “replenish” Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, which would involve providing Israel with more military aid.“We have to get a Speaker elected this week, so we can get things on the floor like replenishing the Iron Dome,” McCaul, the head of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told CNN.The US provides Israel with $3.8 billion in military aid each year and is set to authorize more in the wake of Hamas’ attack on southern Israel. Following a 2021 bombing campaign in Gaza, Israel asked the US for an additional $1 billion in funding for the Iron Dome, which it received in 2022.McCaul is also looking to pass a resolution condemning Hamas that he’s authored with Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.“We have to get a Speaker elected this week, so we can get things on the floor like replenishing the Iron Dome, get a resolution that Ranking Member and I have been working on, a bipartisan resolution condemning Hamas for what they have done to Israel,” McCaul said.The House is expected to elect a new speaker on Wednesday, but McCaul wants the resolution condemning Hamas before that. “We want to get that on the floor by unanimous consent. Whether or not we have a Speaker in place, because I think we cannot wait. We have to get that message out as soon as possible,” he said.
House GOP debates ditching ‘motion to vacate’ rule that unseated McCarthy - The rule that allowed Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) to single-handedly call for a vote ousting Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has become a key issue for Republicans as they grapple over who should replace him.Some are intent on changing the rule, known as a “motion to vacate,” so a handful of House Republicans can never again join with the minority to force a Speaker out and throw the House into chaos. But others who fought for the single-member threshold are defending it.A group of 45 House Republicans — just over a fifth of the GOP conference — signed on to an open letter last week calling for changes to the “motion to vacate” rule, expressing frustration with the eight GOP lawmakers who joined with Democrats to remove McCarthy.“It is our responsibility to identify the right person at this moment to lead us into the future to achieve the conservative policy objectives that we and the American people all share,” the members wrote. “We cannot allow our majority to be dictated to by the alliance between the chaos caucus and the minority party that will do nothing more than guarantee the failure of our next Speaker.”“The injustice we all witnessed cannot go unaddressed — lest we bear responsibility for the consequences that follow. Our Conference must address fundamental changes to the structure of our majority to ensure success for the American people,” the letter said. Signatories included Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio), chairman of the moderate Republican Governance Group, and Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-N.D.), chairman of the “pragmatic” Main Street Caucus, which put out a similar statement expressing skepticism about the motion to vacate earlier in the week.“The ability for one person to vacate the Speaker of the House will keep a chokehold on this body through 2024,” the Main Street Caucus wrote in a statement Wednesday morning. “Personal politics should never again be used to trump the will of 96 percent of House conservatives. Any candidate for Speaker must explain to us how what happened on Tuesday will never happen again.”What exactly the new standard should be, however, is unclear. Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.) has suggested raising the threshold to 50 percent of the House Republican Conference.“The person who wants my vote for Speaker must commit to reforming the Motion to Vacate,” he said.Calls to change the rule, though, run up against the demands of hard-line conservatives who pushed McCarthy to adopt the one-person threshold in January as a condition of supporting him for SpeakerEven some who didn’t vote for McCarthy’s ouster nonetheless support keeping the single-member threshold.“While I understand some of my colleagues are frustrated over invocation of the Motion to Vacate last week against Speaker Kevin McCarthy — a move I strongly opposed, the rule should remain. It’s an historic, institutional, & important tool for individual members to exercise their right to represent constituents and not be steamrolled by the establishment,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) posted Friday on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.Club for Growth, an influential outside conservative group, also warned against certain changes to the standard.“Club for Growth will oppose any candidate for Speaker of the House who supports a return to Pelosi’s rules, especially her rule change against vacating the chair which stood for more than 200 years,”
McCarthy won't rule out return to speakership after Israel attacks – - Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy refused to weigh out a return to his former post, deferring that matter to the House Republican Conference.“I’m going to allow the conference to do their work,” McCarthy said at a press conference on Capitol Hill on Monday. House Republicans are meeting behind closed doors later on Monday.“Unfortunately, the House can do nothing without a speaker,” he added in the aftermath of the attacks in Israel.McCarthy pointedly declined to endorse Reps. Steve Scalise (R-La.) or Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) to succeed him. Nor would he say what he would do if Republican members nominate him again to the speakership this week.McCarthy called it the “wrong” message for the world to not have a speaker amid the crisis: “Is our conference just going to select somebody, only to throw them out in another 81 days?”Any attempt to reinstall McCarthy would face long odds. Scalise and Jordan have already lined up endorsements for the speakership, and McCarthy’s detractors remain dug in against him.
House Speaker chaos threatens GOP majority - The political chaos surrounding the vacant Speakership in the House threatens to upend Republican efforts to hold onto their slim majority in next year’s elections. Questions over who would succeed former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) took on a new urgency this weekend amid an escalating war between Israel and Hamas terrorists. The air of havoc surrounding the GOP’s ouster of McCarthy at a time when a critical U.S. ally is at war could reverberate through some of the most competitive districts next year, such as in New York. “Having a Speakership sitting vacant at the moment is obviously not good,” said Tom Doherty, a New York-based GOP strategist. “It doesn’t serve us or our foreign partners any good not to have a Speaker of the House.” The unprecedented vacancy of the Speakership comes as Israel reacts to the massive surprise attack from Hamas, which the U.S. designates as a terror organization. As of Monday afternoon, more than 900 people in Israel and more than 500 people in Gaza had been killed as a result of the war. Without a Speaker, the House cannot greenlight emergency aid to Israel. It’s also unclear whether acting Speaker Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) will be able to receive classified briefings on the matter. House Republicans plan to meet again Tuesday night to discuss how to move forward on the vacancy. Some Democrats have hit Republicans over the debacle, saying that the question of whether the House can greenlight funding to Israel is a consequence of the GOP’s intraparty chaos. “Every Republican owns this,” said Jon Reinish, a New York-based Democratic strategist. “To me, one of the most ridiculous and most fallacious arguments that I’ve heard is Republicans trying to blame Democrats for the dysfunction that they own.” One Republican strategist told The Hill that it’s still too early to tell how the Speakership dilemma coupled with the war in Israel will impact House Republicans next year, saying “the negative political impacts for us are still very limited.” “I think it’s a very short time period,” the strategist said. “Any negative political fallout is going to be temporary at the most.”
Steve Scalise nominated as House speaker candidate by GOP lawmakers -- Republican lawmakers Wednesday selected Rep. Steve Scalise as their candidate for speaker of the House of Representatives, more than a week after Kevin McCarthy was ousted by rebel GOP members in a historic no-confidence vote. Scalise, the Republican majority leader from Louisiana, defeated Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan of Ohio in a 113-to-99 vote during a closed-door meeting of GOP House members. Scalise will next face a full vote in the House, where he will need the support of 217 lawmakers to secure the speakership. The full House could vote on the speaker issue Wednesday but it is not likely, multiple sources told NBC News. The governing body met briefly at 3 p.m. ET and then went into recess without voting. It is unclear when the House will return. Scalise doesn't yet appear to have the votes to become speaker given the narrow margin in the closely divided House. He can only afford to lose four Republicans. At least eight GOP House members remain opposed to Scalise's candidacy at this time, according to an NBC News tally. Jordan plans to vote for Scalise on the floor and is encouraging his colleagues to do the same, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told CNBC. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, told reporters Wednesday that he does not want to rush a House vote on Scalise until Republicans are united. McCarthy faced a grueling 15 ballots before he was elected speaker in January as he faced opposition from hard-right members of the party. Scalise told reporters Wednesday morning that his first item of business as speaker would be to pass a bipartisan resolution expressing U.S. solidarity with Israel in the wake of devastating terrorist attacks by Hamas that have killed at least 1,200 people. "We got to get back to work today," Scalise told reporters.
Live updates: Steve Scalise wins Republican vote for House speaker nominee -House Republicans voted behind closed doors to select Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana as their nominee for speaker, but it’s unclear if he can lock down the votes needed to win the gavel following Kevin McCarthy’s abrupt ouster. The final conference vote tally was 113 for Scalise and 99 for Rep. Jim Jordan. Scalise is currently working to secure the necessary support to win a floor vote, which isn't expected to take place Wednesday, a House GOP member told CNN. The GOP conference also rejected a proposal to raise the threshold required to select a speaker nominee — a proposal that was aimed at preventing a messy public fight for the gavel. Members have been advised there are likely no additional votes in the House tonight as Speaker designate Steve Scalise and his team work behind the scenes to earn enough support for a floor vote. Scalise will need to gather 217 votes if all members are present to win in a floor vote — a number he currently does not have. He can stand to lose just four votes, meaning the path for a Scalise victory is a narrow one as several in his own party have already announced they will be voting for Jim Jordan, who ran for the GOP nomination and lost to Scalise Wednesday morning. Multiple House Republicans would not commit Wednesday to voting for Steve Scalise for speaker on the floor.The Louisiana congressman won a 113-99 vote over Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan to be the GOP Conference's speaker nominee. But he's still short of the votes needed to win the speaker's gavel ahead of what could become a protracted floor battle.More than a half-dozen Republicans said Wednesday they would vote for Jordan on the floor, while several others said they remained undecided on how they would vote, prompting Scalise to delay any floor action on the speakership.Reps. Max Miller of Ohio, Anna Paulina Luna of Florida, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Lauren Boebert of Colorado all said they would vote for Jordan on the floor.Until a speaker is elected, the House remains effectively paralyzed, an unprecedented situation that has taken on new urgency amid Israel’s war against Hamas.
House speaker vote postponed after nominating Steve Scalise: Live updates - The Washington Post - The Republican-led House recessed Wednesday without voting on House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) as speaker. It’s unclear how long the recess might last. Scalise narrowly won his party’s nomination earlier Wednesday in a race that also included Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). The delay in a vote by the full House signals that Scalise is still working to win support of Jordan backers. Becoming speaker requires a majority vote in the full, narrowly divided House.
Steve Scalise drops out of Speaker’s race - House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) on Thursday dropped out of the race for Speaker, just one day after he won the Republican nomination for the role. Scalise narrowly prevailed in a secret ballot internal GOP election on Wednesday, but it was clear almost immediately that he would struggle to get the 217 votes needed on the House floor. Momentum swung further against him, and as Thursday progressed an increasing number of Republicans declared they would not cast their votes for him. “It’s been quite a journey. And there’s still a long way to go. I just shared with my colleagues that I’m withdrawing my name as a candidate for the speaker designee,” Scalise said when leaving a GOP conference meeting Thursday night. It’s not clear where the fractured Republican conference will go next, as the House closes in on 10 days without an elected Speaker. House GOP members are scheduled to meet at 10 am Friday morning to discuss the internal election for a Speaker nominee, and consider changing rules to select one. Scalise added, “This country is counting on us to come back together. This House of Representatives needs a Speaker and we need to open up the House again. But clearly, not everybody is there. And there’s still schisms that have to get resolved.” Those schisms were on full display this week. Scalise won the Republican nomination over Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) by a vote of 113-99. Jordan threw his support to Scalise but many of his supporters didn’t follow. After Scalise’s announcement, Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.) said multiple lawmakers were encouraging Jordan to run for Speaker again. “There are a number of people encouraging him — I’m one of them,” he said. Jordan, for his part, told reporters that he won’t be announcing until at least Friday his intentions as the conference works to find a new nominee for Speaker. But opposition to his candidacy is already starting to emerge.
Republicans eye expanding McHenry’s powers amid leadership fallout -House Republicans are exploring whether to expand the powers held by Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) as the conference looks nowhere near ready to make a final decision on a new Speaker. Frustrated by the stalemate that is preventing the House from doing any business, GOP lawmakers are taken a new look at what McHenry can do in his new position, with moderate Republicans seeking to expand the position’s power. Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) in a letter signed by members of the moderate Republican Governance Group — she wouldn’t say how many — backed the prospect of drafting a resolution to give McHenry the option to “reopen business.” “It’s time for us to keep on working. So if we need more time as a group to pick the leader, then in the meantime, we can walk and chew gum at the same time. Right? So let’s keep on moving business while we find the permanent person for the position,” she told reporters huddled outside of the Speaker’s office, where she dropped off the letter. Other Republicans, however, say they’d oppose any move that would further entrench McHenry in the role or expand his authorities, saying this could take the pressure off members from picking a new Speaker. “We don’t need to take any pressure off of our conference to come to a final conclusion on a permanent speaker, no pressure taken off of our conference to be any less motivated as a result of giving powers to a temporary speaker pro temp,” Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) told The Hill. McHenry assumed his position last week after the House voted to remove Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). Salazar dropped off the letter just hours before Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) dropped his bid for the gavel after he was unable to sway holdout Republicans after winning a 113-99 internal vote Wednesday. House Democrats, seeking to get ahead of the issue, released a memo last week arguing that McHenry’s authority was limited to organizing the chamber under a rule adopted by Congress after the 9/11 attacks that created the position. “As can be seen in the plain text of the rule, the acting Speaker pro tempore is provided the authority to do only what is ‘necessary and appropriate’ to the end of the election of a new Speaker,” Democrats wrote in the memo. The rule also notes differences in authority between an appointed Speaker pro tem and an elected one — something Democrats see as proof McHenry has little power. “The rule contemplates the election of a Speaker pro tempore instead of a Speaker in the event the House cannot quickly elect a Speaker, an unnecessary provision if the acting Speaker pro tempore had the power to oversee the House’s regular business,” Democrats wrote.
Jeffries calls for ‘traditional Republicans to break with the extremists’ -House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) called for Republicans to “get their act together” and elect the next speaker while slamming the “extremists” within their party.Jeffries joined PBS News Hour inside the Capitol Thursday night after Speaker-designate Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) withdrew his name from consideration for the role.Scalise was chosen as the Republican nominee in a secret ballot Wednesday but faced pushback from several members. It later became apparent that he would struggle to earn the 217 votes necessary on the House floor.“That’s why it’s so urgently necessary that the Republicans get their act together and elect the speaker from within their own ranks as it is the responsibility of the majority party to do so, or have traditional Republicans break with the extremists within the House Republican Conference and partner with Democrats on a bipartisan path forward,” Jeffries said.Jeffries said Democrats are ready, willing and able to move forward on a bipartisan agreement on who would become the next speaker, they just await Republican support. “I know there are traditional Republicans who are good women and men who want to see government function, but they are unable to do it within the ranks of their own conference, which is dominated by the extremist wing,” Jeffries said.
Jim Jordan nominated House speaker, but falls short of votes needed - House Republicans on Friday nominated Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio as their new nominee for speaker of the House of Representatives, after Rep. Steve Scalise abandoned his candidacy in the face of opposition from hard-right members of the GOP. Jordan, chairman of the Judiciary Committee, defeated Rep. Austin Scott of Georgia in a closed-door internal party vote Friday, 124 to 81. But after nominating Jordan, the conference took a second secret ballot vote, to gauge support for Jordan now that he was nominee. On this vote, Jordan came away with 152 votes for him, and 55 against, far short of the 217 he would need in a formal vote on the House floor. Following the second vote, lawmakers broke for the weekend, with few signs of what would come next. Rep. Mark Alford, R-Texas, told CNBC they would hold a floor vote on Jordan's speakership Tuesday. But as members departed the Capitol complex, next week's schedule was still in flux. Scalise, the GOP majority leader from Louisiana, withdrew his nomination Thursday evening after it became clear he would not have the GOP votes needed to secure the speakership in a floor vote. "Our conference still has to come together and is not there," Scalise said after withdrawing his nomination Thursday. "There are still some people that have their own agendas. And it was very clear we have to have everybody put their agendas on the side and focus on what this country needs." House Republicans had nominated Scalise Wednesday after he defeated Jordan in a narrow 113-to-99 internal party vote behind closed doors. Jordan subsequently backed Scalise and encouraged Republican lawmakers to do the same. But several GOP House members insisted they would still vote for Jordan on the House floor, sinking any chance Scalise had of taking the gavel. The House has been leaderless for more than a week after a faction of eight Republicans, led by Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, engineered the ouster of Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California. The lower chamber is effectively in a state of paralysis, unable to move forward with urgent business until a House speaker is elected.
Sen. Schumer Lectures Xi on China's Response to Israel-Hamas Fighting - Sen. Chuck Schumer used a rare meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing to lecture him about China’s response to the Hamas attack on southern Israel, saying he was “disappointed” with Beijing’s neutrality.“I urge you and the Chinese people to stand with the Israeli people and condemn the cowardly and vicious attacks upon them,” Schumer told Xi on Monday, according to Bloomberg. “I say this with respect, but I was disappointed by the foreign minister’s statement showing no sympathy or his support for the Israeli people during these tragedies.”Earlier in the day, Schumer met with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, and also criticized China’s response to the situation in Israel and Gaza. China’s Foreign Ministry released a statement on Sunday that urged de-escalation and peace talks.“We call on relevant parties to remain calm, exercise restraint, and immediately end the hostilities to protect civilians and avoid further deterioration of the situation,” the Foreign Ministry said.On Monday, after Schumer met with Xi, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning offered a stronger condemnation of the killing of civilians. “We’re deeply saddened by the civilian casualties and oppose and condemn acts that harm civilians,” she said.Schumer took credit for the stronger statement, but it could be applied to both sides as Israel is killing civilians in its airstrikes and siege on Gaza. Mao stressed that China was a friend to both “Israel and Palestine” and urged de-escalation and talks, which Beijing has offered to facilitate.Schumer’s lecture overshadowed the bipartisan delegation that he led to China, the first congressional trip of its kind since 2019. The trip came as US-China relations are at their lowest point in decades.
Chinese leader Xi strengthens statement on Israel after pressure from Schumer -In an unusual move, Chinese President Xi Jinping strengthened China’s statement condemning the attacks in Israel and the Gaza Strip after coming under pressure from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Monday. China, in an updated statement through a foreign ministry spokesperson, condemned “all violence and attacks on civilians” and said “the most urgent task now is to reach a ceasefire and restore peace.” The stronger statement after Schumer expressed his disappointment with an earlier statement from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs that merely called for restraint. “I raised with President Xi the unfolding atrocities carried out against Israel and the need for the world community to stand together against terrorism and with the Israeli people, and pointedly requested from President Xi that the Chinese Foreign Minister strengthen their statement; they did,” Schumer said in a Monday statement. China’s foreign ministry on Sunday said: “We call on relevant parties to remain calm, exercise restraint and immediately end the hostilities to protect civilians and avoid further deterioration of the situation.” Schumer said that statement didn’t go far enough. He told Xi on Monday he was “very disappointed” that China’s government had not condemned the attacks on 22 Israeli towns by Hamas militants in stronger terms. “The ongoing events in Israel over the past few days are horrific,” Schumer told Xi in a meeting. “I urge you and the Chinese people to stand with the Israeli people and condemn these cowardly and vicious attacks.” He criticized China’s foreign ministry’s initial statement as showing “no sympathy or support for Israel during these troubled times.” Schumer met with Xi for 80 minutes in Beijing on Monday as part of a delegation of six senators.
US declares military takeover in Niger a coup - The State Department officially declared Tuesday that the recent takeover of Niger’s government by a group of military leaders was a coup, cutting back on U.S. aid in the country.A military junta put the country’s president on house arrest and took control of the government in late July, raising tensions in the region.The U.S. government had previously refused to use the term “coup,” allowing some aid programs in the country to continue. With the designation, the U.S. will end all aid to Niger, including a $300 million economic grant for the country announced last year.Humanitarian aid to Niger will continue, the State Department said.“We stand with the Nigerien people in their aspirations for democracy, prosperity, and stability,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in a statement. “Since the coup, we have supported the Economic Community of West African States’ [ECOWAS] efforts to work with Niger to achieve a return to democratic rule.”
Quiz show: GOP deploys new climate messaging tactic - A new strategy is emerging among Republicans to sow doubt about climate change science: trying to stump the experts on a number. Some House Republicans in recent months have used hearings to confront witnesses — often Biden administration officials — by asking what percentage of the atmosphere is carbon dioxide, the most prominent greenhouse gas causing global warming. The witnesses usually struggle, sometimes making embarrassing guesses that are orders of magnitude higher than the true answer: 412 parts per million, or 0.04 percent, on a global average scale last year. They’re corrected and perhaps asked how they could regulate carbon dioxide without knowing such a basic fact. The videos have gone viral, sometimes garnering millions of views on social media. And other lawmakers are catching on. Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.) seems to be the tactic’s most frequent user, though Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.) has tried it out, too. Democrats who have witnessed the exchanges have been aghast. In an interview, Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.), a climate hawk, called the line of questioning “fucking idiocy.” During an April hearing of the Natural Resources Committee, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland admitted to LaMalfa that she was stumped but offered to have her staff get back to him. At a Transportation and Infrastructure Committee hearing in March on implementation of the bipartisan infrastructure law, LaMalfa goaded a reluctant panel of four representatives of major road-related associations who offered guesses that ranged from 5 percent to 8 percent. “The answer is 0.04 percent. Not 1 percent, not 0.5 percent. It’s 0.04 percent,” LaMalfa revealed. “It’s gone up from 0.03 over the last couple decades. This is what we’re being all contorted into doing, is this tiny change in CO2. If we get below 0.02, plant life starts dying.” The line of question is the latest development in the Republican Party’s frequently uneasy relationship with climate change science.
The legal battle over Biden's climate metric isn't over - The Biden administration may have dodged a blow this week in its effort to put a price tag on the cost of planet-warming emissions — but the legal fight is far from over.For years, Republican-led states have tried — and failed — to stop the Biden administration from using interim estimates of the social cost of greenhouse gases that help federal agencies write stronger climate regulations.On Tuesday, one round of their legal battle came to a close after the Supreme Court declined to review a decision that rejected the red states’ arguments on the grounds that agencies had not yet used the formulas in rulemaking at the time they filed their challenges.Lower courts had ruled that the states could not show how they had been harmed. The Supreme Court, as it does in most cases it declines to hear, did not offer a reason for its rejection.The justices “make it very clear that you can’t challenge these valuations in the abstract,” said Max Sarinsky, a senior attorney at the Institute for Policy Integrity. “You have to challenge them in their application.”But Missouri or other GOP-led states are expected to return to court as the Biden administration finalizes more rules using the interim social cost estimates. And a new White House proposal to broaden use of the metric by applying it to a wider swath of government decisions is likely to spur another round of litigation.“Every time that the administration uses the social cost of carbon, they open themselves up to a potential lawsuit by the state or other private parties on the basis that the social cost of carbon calculation is invalid,” said Devin Watkins, an attorney for the Competitive Enterprise Institute.The estimates highlight the hidden costs of climate change by putting a price on a metric ton of emissions. For carbon, the Biden administration has used estimates of about $51 per metric ton. That figure is consistent with the estimate used under the Obama administration, adjusted for inflation. However, it is a sharp increase from the estimate for carbon used under former President Donald Trump — about $1 per metric ton.
IRS ‘tax gap’ widens to $688 billion in 2021: report - The gap between taxes owed and paid to the government is wider than originally estimated, according to a new report released Thursday by the Internal Revenue Service. The projected gross “tax gap,” the difference between the total taxes owed to the IRS and how much is collected on time, jumped to $688 billion for tax year 2021, the agency projects. That’s about $138 billion higher than revised projections for the three-year period ending in 2019. Late payments and IRS enforcement efforts are expected to bring in an additional $63 billion, which would narrow the projected net tax gap to $625 billion for 2021. Previously measured every three years, this is the first time the tax gap projection has been provided for a single tax year. The agency says it will provide tax gap estimates on an annual basis moving forward. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), passed by Democrats last August, included an additional $80 billion in funding for the IRS to beef up its enforcement efforts. Republicans have opposed the new IRS funding, and they made a bill that would reverse most of that funding their first legislative priority when the party retook the House in January. The bill is a nonstarter in the Democrat-controlled Senate. Democrats agreed to scrap $20 billion of the additional IRS funding in a deal struck with Republicans this summer to raise the debt ceiling. But they have balked on following through after GOP lawmakers’ spending cuts for other federal agencies that were far steeper than what Democrats agreed to in debt ceiling talks. The IRS says it plans to use additional IRA resources to increase the voluntary compliance rate, which the agency projects at 84.9 percent, with a focus on wealthy taxpayers. “With the help of Inflation Reduction Act funding, we are adding focus and resources to areas of compliance concern, including high-income and high-wealth individuals, partnerships and corporations,” said IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel. Even a 1 percent rate increase would bring in an additional $46 billion, the agency said Thursday. In 2022, the most recent tax year, the IRS collected more than $4.9 trillion in taxes, penalties, interest and fees. The IRS established a new division last month that would go after uncollected taxes sheltered in “pass-through entities” including limited liability partnership, S corporations and sole proprietorships. “These steps are urgent in many ways, including adding more fairness to the tax system, protecting those who pay their taxes and working to combat the tax gap,” Werfel said.
Medicare Part B premiums to rise by 6 percent in 2024 - The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) announced the monthly Medicare Part A and B premiums for 2024 on Thursday, with the costs set to go up by 6 percent next year. The premiums would increase by $9.80 from $164.90 to $174.70 in 2024 and the annual deductible for Medicare Part B beneficiaries will go up from $226 to $240 as well. This price increase comes after Medicare Part B premiums went down for the first time in more than 10 years in 2023. Medicare Part B covers medically necessary services and preventive services, which include mental health services, some outpatient prescription drugs, ambulance services and durable medical equipment. The premium announced Thursday falls in line with what the Medicare Board of Trustees estimated the 2024 premium would be earlier this year. “The increase in the 2024 Part B standard premium and deductible is mainly due to projected increases in health care spending and, to a lesser degree, the remedy for the 340B-acquired drug payment policy for the 2018-2022 period under the Hospital Outpatient Prospective Payment System,” the CMS said. The 340B Drug Pricing Program, established in 1992, requires that pharmaceutical manufacturers participating in Medicaid provide outpatient drugs at significantly discounted prices to eligible health care organizations. Before 2018, the Medicare reimbursement rate to eligible hospitals for Part B-covered outpatient drugs was the average sales price of a product plus 6 percent. In 2017, however, the CMS changed the payment rate to the average sales price minus 22.5 percent, saying this more accurately reflected the cost that 340B-eligible hospitals incur. This updated rate was in effect from 2018 to 2022 before the Supreme Court ruled it was unlawful due to the federal government not conducting a survey of hospitals’ acquisition costs beforehand. As part of the remedy in response to the suit, the CMS proposed a one-time lump sum payment to hospitals affected by the new payment policy from 2018 to 2022. The agency estimated these entities received about $10.5 billion less than they would have, $1.5 billion of which providers had already received by the time the remedy was proposed. As such, it was proposed that the remaining $9 billion be divvied out to the 340B-eligible entities that were affected.
Medicare Advantage Overbilling Taxpayers by $140 Billion a Year - Catching up on the issue of overpayments to Medicare Advantage Plans. A lot of information which should help in understanding the problems with Medicare Advantage. Physicians for a National Health Program (PNHP) starts off by defining two issues with Medicare Advantage. To project the monetary size of the issue, PNHP states the overcharges funded by Medicare could conceivably fund certain parts of traditional Medicare (see chart below).
- “1. By our estimate, and based on 2022 spending, Medicare Advantage overcharges taxpayers by a minimum of 22% or $88 billion per year, and potentially by up to 35% or $140 billion.
- 2. By comparison, Part B premiums in 2022 totaled approximately $131 billion, and overall federal spending on Part D drug benefits cost approximately $126 billion.
- Either of these (1 or 2 above) or other crucial aspects of Medicare and Medicaid could be funded entirely by eliminating overcharges in the Medicare Advantage program.
Managed care cheerleaders maintain programs like MA reduce expenditures, improve the quality of care and enable consumer choice. The reality is the opposite as data shows, privatized Medicare has not once yielded savings for the program. Each year MedPAC (Medicare Payment Advisory Commission) an independent agency issues a report to Congress on the Medicare Program showing (2022 and 2023):
- 1. The conservative estimates by MedPAC show payments to MA plans over the past two decades have always been higher then would have been for patients in Traditional Medicare.
- 2. Despite this additional spending, MedPAC could not say conclusively whether care outcomes fared better under MA.
- 3. Patients in Traditional Medicare have access to nearly all doctors and hospitals across the country
- 4. Patients in Medicare Advantage plans must contend with heavily limited networks.
- 5. Healthcare is further limited by arcane prior authorization procedures, calling into question which choices consumers are able to make.
The MedPAC report for 2022 reveals the variances in coding incurred by Medicare Advantage. Chapter 12, Page 439, Report to the Congress: Medicare Payment Policy | March 2022. “Coding differences increased payments to MA plans by $12 billion in 2020.” Yearly variances as reported by MedPAC (bar chart);“Figure 12-6, Payment years 2007 through 2020 (14 years).” The impact of differences in coding intensity (increasing codes) on MA risk scores in relation to FFS plus the size of the coding intensity adjustment (the amount by which CMS reduced MA risk scores to account for coding intensity) is what we are looking at today. During the 2007 -2020 period, coding intensity consistently increased MA risk scores by approximately one percentage point or more annually.However, the underlying trend was offset in 2014, 2016, and 2017 by the introduction of new versions of the risk-adjustment model and more intensive FFS coding. The coding intensity adjustment has never fully accounted for the impact of coding intensity. This difference results in continuing excess payments to MA plans relative to FFS spending for similar enrollees. For 2020, MA risk scores were 9.5 percent above FFS risk scores. The difference was partially offset by the coding intensity adjustment reducing MA risk scores by 5.9 percent. The net effect was a 3.6 percent increase in MA risk scores, leading to nearly $12 billion in excess payments to MA plans. The magnitude of these findings is consistent with most other research showing that the impact of coding differences on MA risk scores is larger than CMS’s adjustment for coding.”
HHS: More than 7 million people have received updated COVID vaccine - More than 7 million Americans have received the updated COVID-19 vaccine since it was approved one month ago, according to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) signed off on the Pfizer and Moderna shots Sept. 11, and distribution was allowed to begin after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended them Sept. 12. While parents and pediatricians said they’re having problems finding available doses, HHS said 14 million vaccines have shipped to pharmacies and other locations. Providers and pharmacies self-report those numbers, though, because the federal government is no longer in charge of purchasing and distributing the majority of the vaccines. The COVID vaccine is now commercialized, like the flu shot and other vaccines. That puts the burden of ordering shots on hospitals, physician offices and pharmacies, and on the public to pay for it — though, the HHS says, “most Americans” can get a vaccine at no additional cost through their health insurance or through a CDC program. With the vaccine commercialized, the numbers from the HHS are likely an undercount, and specific breakdowns were not available. Despite the limitations, the agency said the latest vaccine effort is about on par with the 2022 rollout of the bivalent booster shot. Last year’s booster was rolled out about 10 days earlier; by Sept. 28, 2022, almost 7.6 million Americans had received the updated shots. But demand for the 2022 bivalent booster vaccine was low. Only about 20 percent of adults received the shot, and experts have said they don’t expect much difference with the newest version. The updated shots were designed to target the XBB.1.5 variant, which was dominant when vaccine makers started formulating and testing a new version Like all the other COVID-19 vaccines, the updated version is not designed to prevent infection completely but is meant to reduce the severity of symptoms and curb the risk of “long COVID.” The XBB.1.5 variant is no longer dominant and only accounts for about 3 percent of cases. But experts and administration officials have said the vaccines should still be effective at preventing severe infection against other variants that are circulating. and even if it isn't we still have a lot of vaccines to sell.
Bipartisan bill aims to protect actors, singers from AI recreations - A bipartisan bill introduced Thursday aims to protect the likeness of actors, singers and other performers from generative artificial intelligence (AI) technology. The Nurture Originals, Foster Art, and Keep Entertainment Safe (NO FAKES) Act would hold individuals or companies liable for producing unauthorized digital replicas of individuals in a performance, along with platforms that host such content. The bill would exclude certain digital replicas from liability based on First Amendment protections. For example, replicas for news or sports broadcasts, documentaries or historical work, or satire or parody are exempted. The bill is sponsored by Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). The proposal follows growing concerns over threats from generative AI to creators.
Lawmakers applaud after Democrat apologizes for GOP colleague’s outburst -Lawmakers applauded Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) after he apologized on behalf of all congress members following GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden’s (Wisc.) latest outburst at a group of federal workers.Crow apologized to the Biden administration briefers, prompting a bipartisan round of applause, during the Wisconsin lawmaker’s questioning, which some described as “rude” and “obnoxious”, according to Rep. Judy Chu (D-Calif.) per comments confirmed by her office to The Hill.Crow’s office confirmed the Colorado lawmaker apologized to the briefers.Van Orden called the White House briefers, who were filling lawmakers in on attacks in the Israel-Hamas conflict, “incompetent” and told them he knew more about the situation after “having served two tours of duty in the Middle East”, according to Chu’s office. “He was rude and attacked the presenters,” Chu told Politico. “I thought they had very substantive things to say. But he just had this blanket attack saying that ‘this is the worst information I’ve ever had.’ And basically attacking them for being incompetent.”
Tuberville reports former CIA director Hayden to Capitol Police over tweet - Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) reported former CIA Director Michael Hayden to the Capitol Police on Tuesday over the former general’s tweet suggesting the lawmaker should be removed “from the human race.”In a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, asking if the senator should be removed from the Senate Armed Services Committee due to placing holds on military promotions, Hayden responded Monday saying “how about the human race”?Tuberville characterized the tweet as promoting “politically motivated assassination.”“This statement is disgusting and it is repugnant to everything we believe in as Americans,” Tuberville said in a statement Tuesday. “Given General Hayden’s long career in Washington, he must have known that, by making such a statement, he was committing a serious crime. His own efforts today to reinterpret what he said are only a tacit admission of guilt.”Tuberville added that his office has reported the incident to Capitol Police and added: “I expect that they will once again do an excellent job protecting members of Congress and bringing criminals to justice.”Hayden, a CNN national security analyst, doubled down his take in another post on X on Tuesday morning.“I was surprised to wake up this morning and discover that many MAGAnuts had lost their minds over my suggestion that ‘Coach’ Tuberville not be considered a member of the human race,” Hayden said. “I stand by that view. I’m wishing you all a nice day even the intransigent Tommy Tuberville.”
Fetterman calls on full Senate to expel Menendez after new charge - Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) on Thursday called on the full Senate to vote on a resolution to expel Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) from the chamber in the wake of new charges asserting the New Jersey senator has acted as a foreign agent on behalf of Egypt. “Senator Menendez should not be a U.S. Senator. He should have been gone long ago. It is time for every one of my colleagues in the Senate to join me in expelling Senator Menendez,” he said in a statement. “We cannot have an alleged foreign agent in the United States Senate,” Fetterman added. “This is not a close call.” Fetterman called for Menendez’s expulsion after federal prosecutors filed a new charge alleging Menendez and his wife, Nadine Arslanian, conspired to act as an agent of Egypt while Menendez chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The superseding indictment filed by the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York points out that Menendez, as a public official, was prohibited from serving as a foreign agent. It also noted that between 2020 and 2022, Menendez made multiple requests for the Justice Department to investigate another person for failing to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. The fourth count of the revised federal indictment against Menendez alleges that his co-defendants, including his wife and her business associate Wael “Will” Hana, “willfully and knowingly combined, conspired, confederated and agreed together and with each other to have a public officials, to wit, Robert Menendez, act as an agent of a foreign principal.” Fetterman told reporters last month he would vote to expel Menendez. “Whatever kinds of procedure that could bring about getting rid of him, I’m all for it, forcing it,” he said. “Honor, clearly, isn’t going to be the option to appeal to at this point,” he said, noting Menendez had been “defiant” in resisting calls for his resignation. More than half of the Senate Democratic caucus has called on Menendez to resign.
New York’s first-term GOP reps will move to expel Santos after new charges -New York House Republicans will introduce a measure to expel Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) from the legislative body, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.) announced Wednesday. “Today, I’ll be introducing an expulsion resolution to rid the People’s House of fraudster, George Santos,” he wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter. D’Esposito said the resolution will be co-sponsored by fellow first-term GOP Reps. Nick LaLota, Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro, Nick Langworthy and Brandon Williams, all from New York.The announcement comes one day after prosecutors in New York filed a superseding indictment against Santos, charging him with 10 new criminal charges. He now faces 23 charges in total.The new indictment accuses Santos of stealing campaign contributors’ identities and financial information and of charging their credit cards numerous times without their authorization. The indictment also alleges Santos falsely reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) that his family made significant campaign contributions they did not make. The announcement marks a shift in position for the six New York first-term lawmakers, who in May voted with the rest of the GOP conference to refer the matter to the House Ethics Committee, rather than vote for Santos’s expulsion.That vote made them a target for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which in September released a video attacking five of the six members for that vote against Santos’s expulsion.
Biden interviewed by special counsel in classified documents probe - President Biden sat this week for an interview with the special counsel overseeing an investigation into his handling of classified documents from his time as vice president, the White House confirmed Monday. Biden met Sunday and Monday with special counsel Robert Hur, who was appointed earlier this year to handle the probe into classified documents found at Biden’s home and an old office. “The President has been interviewed as part of the investigation being led by Special Counsel Robert Hur,” spokesperson Ian Sams said in a statement. “The voluntary interview was conducted at the White House over two days, Sunday and Monday, and concluded Monday. “As we have said from the beginning, the President and the White House are cooperating with this investigation, and as it has been appropriate, we have provided relevant updates publicly, being as transparent as we can consistent with protecting and preserving the integrity of the investigation,” Sams added. “We would refer other questions to the Justice Department at this time.” The New York Times first reported that Biden sat for an interview with Hur.Biden had said as recently as August that there had not been a request for an interview from the special counsel’s office. The interview with Hur marks a significant step in the probe, however, and is a sign officials may be nearing the conclusion of their investigation.Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Hur in January as a special counsel. Hur is investigating why documents from Biden’s time as vice president with classified markings were found at his Wilmington, Del., home.Documents with classified markings were also found at a University of Pennsylvania office in Washington, D.C., that Biden used after the end of the Obama administration. Those documents were found by officials clearing out the office last November, but the discovery was not publicly disclosed until January.Biden has maintained he did nothing wrong, and his team has repeatedly noted that his lawyers quickly notified and cooperated with the Justice Department after discovering the documents.
Justice Department fights Trump effort to push Mar-a-Lago trial until after 2024 election --The Justice Department is fighting an effort by former President Trump to delay his documents case until after the 2024 election, pushing back on claims the government hasn’t done its part to provide access to evidence.A recent motion seeking to delay the process through a law governing the handling of classified records in court “was but a precursor to a motion to continue the trial date,” special counsel Jack Smith’s office wrote in the Monday court filing.“None of the issues raised in the defendants’ motion warrants the continuance they request.”The request from Trump’s team last week comes amid complaints from his legal team about the amount of classified evidence they’ve been able to review in the case, as well as their workload, as they manage numerous indictments filed against the former president. They asked to delay the case until “at least mid-November 2024.”The latest in politics and policy. The attorneys say they have yet to get access to all classified evidence underpinning charges in a superseding indictment that accused Trump of an additional Espionage Act charge and of trying to delete security camera footage from his Florida home.Trump’s team also complains that it “only has access to a small, temporary facility in Miami” to view the highly classified records. It must visit the facility in person while managing hearing dates for Trump’s trial on allegations he sought to block the transfer of power after losing the 2020 election.But the special counsel’s office said Trump’s team is exaggerating its struggles.“Reports, transcripts, and recordings of interviews with potential witnesses—essentially, the blueprint of the Government’s case-in-chief—have been made available within days of arraignment for all defendants, even though the Court’s scheduling order authorizes the Government to delay production of such materials until just before trial,” they wrote.“In no way does the government’s record of unclassified discovery production in this case support a continuance.”
Trump asks judge to OK subpoenas for Jan. 6 committee documents --Attorneys for former President Trump are seeking a judge’s permission to subpoena the former chairman of the House committee that investigated the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, repeating a disputed claim that the panel failed to turn over all the evidence it collected. The filing from Trump — which also seeks to subpoena six other officials — repeats claims fromRep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.), the House Administration Oversight Subcommittee chairman, that he did not receive the entirety of the panel’s records. Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), who led the nine-member panel, disputed Loudermilk’s claims when he first made them in August. He said the committee turned over all required work products and official records — something that includes transcripts of all witness interviews but not all video recordings that weren’t ultimately used in their hearings.Trump’s attorneys also asked to subpoena Loudermilk, his committee and the clerk of the House. Thompson, like Loudermilk, would likely be able to resist the subpoena given the protections under the Constitution’s Speech and Debate clause.He also wants to subpoena the national archivist and attorneys to the White House and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Trump’s claims in court appear to be based entirely on complaints from Loudermilk.The attorneys cite a letter from Loudermilk to Thompson and a later Fox News story saying the evidence was disorganized and amounted to 2.5 terabytes of the total 4 terabytes collected by the committee. The 2.5 terabytes was everything stored on the committee’s e-discovery platform, while the other data was stored on external hard drives.Thompson responded that the committee was under no obligation to save every single file it created, including videos of interviews. “The Select Committee did not archive temporary committee records that were not elevated by the Committee’s actions, such as use in hearings or official publications, or those that did not further its investigative activities. Accordingly, and contrary to your letter’s implication, the Select Committee was not obligated to archive all video recordings of transcribed interviews or depositions,” he wrote in August.
Fani Willis accuses Jim Jordan of ‘abusing’ his authority on Trump’s Georgia trial Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) penned another fiery letter to House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), again rebuffing his request for information about her prosecution of former President Trump and others involved in trying to block President Biden’s electoral victory in Georgia. “A charitable explanation of your correspondence is that you are ignorant of the United States and Georgia Constitutions and codes,” she wrote in response to a late September letter from Jordan asserting she must answer questions about the investigation. “A more troubling explanation is that you are abusing your authority as Chairman of the Committee on the Judiciary to attempt to obstruct and interfere with a Georgia criminal prosecution.” Jordan initially wrote to Willis in August just hours before Trump appeared in a county jail, essentially asking her to turn over all documents and communications related to the case. “Congress in general, and this Committee in particular, have a strong legislative interest in ensuring that popularly elected local prosecutors do not misuse their law-enforcement authority to target federal officials for political reasons,” he wrote last month. “We can only conclude from your hostile response to the Committee’s oversight that you are actively and aggressively engaged in such a scheme.” Willis on Wednesday said Jordan has already shown his hand in terms of his desire to interfere with this case. “Indeed, you confessed to this motivation on Mark Levin’s September 10, 2023, show: when discussing one of my office’s active prosecutions, you boasted, ‘We’re trying to get all the answers, but we’re trying to stop this stuff as well,’” she wrote. Willis once again did not spare in revealing irritation at Jordan’s request for information, noting she has already responded with information about federal grants they receive. “We have already written a letter — which I have attached again for your reference — explaining why the legal positions you advance are meritless. Nothing you’ve said in your latest letter changes that fact,” she said, adding that his letter comes as “my team and I are exceptionally busy.” “As I have explained, your requests implicate significant, well recognized confidentiality interests related to an ongoing criminal matter, as well as serious constitutional concerns regarding federalism and separation of powers.”
Kushner says Schumer told family friends he was going to jail - Jared Kushner, the son-in-law and ex-adviser to former President Trump, said Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y) told his mother’s friends he was going to jail for his involvement in the 2016 election and alleged ties with Russia.“My poor mom, I told her to stop, you know reading whatever, I said, ‘I promise you, we didn’t do anything wrong, it’s good,’” Kushner said on the Lex Fridman Podcast. “But you know, she’d call me say, well you know, ‘our friends were on the Upper East Side were talking with Chuck Schumer who says Jared’s going to jail.’”Kushner, who is married to Trump’s daughter Ivanka, has pushed back on reports that he sought to establish a “back-channel” line of communication between Russia and the Trump campaign ahead of the 2016 election. Kushner attended a now-infamous meeting between Donald Trump Jr., former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and a woman described as a Russian government lawyer offering dirt on Hillary Clinton.While the report from Special Counsel Robert Mueller found “sweeping and systematic” Russian interference in the 2016 election, it did not find evidence that anyone on Trump’s campaign was complicity in those efforts. Kushner said on the podcast that he didn’t take the allegations “too seriously” at first, because he felt there were “no underlying problems to the accusation.”“I felt like this is one of those things where they’re going to try and catch you and then if you step on the line, they catch with one misrepresentation, they’re gonnna try to put you in jail or worse … and so, for me, that was a big concern,” Kushner said.Kushner was part of investigations by the Senate intelligence and judiciary committees into questions around the Trump campaigns links with Russia.He said he probably spent more than 20 hours testifying before different committees and spent millions of dollars “out of my own pocket” on legal fees.“This is like a leading senator saying these things and so it was just interesting for me to see how the whole world could believe something and be talking about it that I knew with 1,000 percent certainty was just not true,” Kushner said of Schumer. “And so seeing that play out was very, very hard.”
RFK Jr. announces he will run as an independent candidate - — Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said on Monday he is abandoning his bid for the Democratic nomination for the White House in 2024. “I’m here to declare myself an independent candidate for president of the United States,” Kennedy announced to a crowd of supporters at Independence Mall in Philadelphia. “We declare independence from the cynical elites who betray our hope and who amplify our divisions. And finally, we declare independence from the two political parties.” His family name is almost synonymous with the Democratic Party, but Kennedy has determined that its primary nomination process was skewed in favor of President Joe Biden. That history, he said, made the decision personally painful for him. Some members of the Kennedy family released a joint statement in response calling his announcement “deeply saddening” and “perilous for our country.” “Bobby might share the same name as our father, but he does not share the same values, vision or judgment,” read the statement from Rory Kennedy, Kerry Kennedy, Joseph P Kennedy II and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. However, his children are supportive of his bid, and his daughter-in-law, Amaryllis Fox, is a co-manager of his campaign. The environmental justice lawyer-turned-politician has long expressed frustration with the primary process in interviews. His campaign manager, former Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich, advocated for a more competitive primary in a letter to the Democratic National Committee last month. And the Super PAC supporting Kennedy even protested outside a recent DNC meeting in Washington to show its discontent. Those efforts didn’t change anything, and now Kennedy is pursuing an independent bid.
How RFK Jr.’s independent campaign could hurt Trump more than Biden - Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is poised to be the most formidable independent presidential candidate in more than two decades.And already, operatives in both parties are moving to head off the impact.A combination of his famous name and widespread voter dissatisfaction with both likely major party nominees puts him in position to earn the largest share of the vote for an independent candidate since Ross Perot drew nearly 19 percent in the 1992 election.Given the recency of Kennedy’s flirtation with an independent bid, there isn’t a lot of polling testing a three-way race with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.But in recent weeks, two polls have found Kennedy at 14 percent when included as a third option with Biden and Trump.In a tight race in which every small advantage matters, both parties are anxious about how Kennedy could draw from their coalitions. Allies of President Biden have called his independent candidacy “dangerous.” And the Republican National Committee, conscious of how he has drawn on the anti-vaccine crowd among its base, is already highlighting Kennedy’s liberal policy positions, eager to stamp out any support he has on the right.Kennedy’s support so far is coming roughly evenly from Biden and former President Donald Trump. But third-party candidacies can be unpredictable, and Kennedy’s anti-vaccination stance gives him more room to draw from Republicans than Democrats.Democrats aren’t excited by Biden’s campaign, and many say they wish he wasn’t running again. But Kennedy likely isn’t the right candidate to pull them away. And in the course of the campaign, it’s probably more likely Kennedy’s independent bid would ultimately hurt Trump.
The horrific nightmare scenario where Congress picks our next president - One thing I worry about is a contingent presidential election. That situation arises when no candidate gets a majority of electoral votes (270 of 538). Should this situation arise, Congress gets to pick the next president and vice president. Yes, you read correctly, the 535 folks whom 80 percent of Americans dislike make these momentous decisions. Yes, these are the same folks who nearly shut down the government, who refuse to fix the broken immigration system and who have run up more than $33 trillion in debt. And who can forget Jan. 6, 2021, when some legislators refused to recognize states’ electoral slates and sparked a riot? My smart readers might now rub their chins and reply, “Well, how likely is that scenario?” Some of them might even point out that there has not been a contingent election since 1824, when John Quincy Adams, Andrew Jackson and Henry Clay split the votes. True, but the odds of it occurring are growing. Landslide victories (think Ronald Reagan vs. Walter Mondale in 1984 or Richard Nixon vs McGovern in 1972) are growing rarer. Four of the past six presidential elections have been very close. In 2020, had 44,000 voters in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin picked Trump instead of Biden we would have had a tied election (269 to 269). Come the 2024 election, the chances of a contingent election may go higher still, according to a recent report from United to Protect Democracy. The reason is that No Labels, an organization that says its mission is devoted to bipartisan problem-solving, is threatening to run a third-party ticket. Whether they select Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) or New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) or some other heterodox figures to run, you can be sure it will be a serious ticket. Why? Because No Labels is a serious organization. They created the Problem Solvers Caucus in the House, and they are very good at fundraising. Already, the group has secured space for its “unity” ticket on the 2024 ballot in 11 states. And let’s not forget that there is public demand for something other than a Biden-Trump rematch. More than half of voters do not want Biden or Trump. If No Labels pulls the trigger on this effort, it will be the most real third-party run in decades. For sure, I am sympathetic to their objective. But I am worried about the probability of it failing and the cost thereof.
Meta Oversight Board to weigh in on manipulated Biden video - The Meta Oversight Board will hear a case over a manipulated video of President Biden in a decision that could lead to recommendations over Facebook and Instagram’s political misinformation policies, the board announced Tuesday. The board will review a case over a video posted of Biden during the 2022 midterm elections. A video of Biden placing an “I Voted” sticker on his adult granddaughter and then kissing her on the cheek was altered in a Facebook post, showing it on a loop so that it repeats the moment where Biden’s “hand makes contact with his granddaughter’s chest,” according to the board’s announcement. The altered video was accompanied by a caption calling Biden a “sick pedophile” and saying the people who voted for him are “mentally unwell.” Meta did not take the video down. The company said its manipulated media rules did not warrant the removal of the content because it only applies to videos generated by artificial intelligence (AI) or those that have a subject shown saying words they did not say, according to the oversight board. Thomas Hughes, director of the Oversight Board Administration, said in a statement that although the specific case involves Biden, it “touches on the much border issue of how manipulated media might impact elections in every corner of the world.” “Free speech is vitally important, it’s the cornerstone of democratic governance, but there are complex questions concerning what Meta’s human rights responsibilities should be regarding video content that has been altered to create a misleading impression of a public figure. It’s important that we look at what challenges and best practices Meta should adopt when it comes to authenticating video content at scale,” Hughes added. The board comprises a panel of global academics, experts and civic leaders and is run independently of Meta. It is funded by an independent trust provided by the tech company. The board’s content decisions are binding, meaning if the board rules Meta acted wrong in leaving the video up, then the platform will have to remove it. But policy recommendations are nonbinding, meaning any recommendations the board makes in terms of how Meta should amend its policies will be up to Meta to choose to put in place or not. Concerns around manipulated media, especially in election content, are rising along with the increased use of generative AI tools. Already, AI has been used in posts by candidates running for the Republican presidential nomination. The Federal Elections Commission (FEC) is also weighing a decision to consider new rules about the use of AI in campaigns.
Janet Yellen’s Treasury Department Hires 5-Count Felon JPMorgan Chase to Look for Fraud --By Pam Martens and Russ Martens - According to a press release posted on JPMorgan Chase’s website, “it has been designated by the United States Treasury Department under a financial agency agreement to provide account validation services for federal government agencies” in order to ensure “Treasury’s commitment to payment integrity and the reduction of improper payments.” Hiring JPMorgan Chase to ensure “payment integrity” is like the U.S. Treasury hiring Allen Weisselberg as its accountant. Since 2014, JPMorgan Chase has admitted to five separate criminal felony charges brought by the U.S. Department of Justice. The first two of those felony charges related to the bank ignoring brazen red flags as Ponzi kingpin, Bernie Madoff, laundered billions of dollars through the bank for years.JPMorgan Chase and its predecessor banks handled the primary business account for Madoff for decades. Despite billions of dollars in check-kiting occurring between Madoff and one of his largest clients, Norman F. Levy, the bank never filed the legally-required Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs).JPMorgan Chase and its predecessor banks also extended tens of millions of dollars in loans to Levy and his family so they could invest with the insolvent Madoff. According to Irving Picard, the Trustee of the Madoff Victims Fund, Levy had $188 million in outstanding loans in 1996, which he used to funnel money into Madoff investments. Picard’s lawyers wrote in court filings that JPMorgan Chase (JPMC) “referred to these investments as ‘special deals.’ Indeed, these deals were special for all involved: (a) Levy enjoyed Madoff’s inflated return rates of up to 40% on the money he invested with Madoff; (b) Madoff enjoyed the benefits of large amounts of cash to perpetuate his fraud without being subject to JPMC’s due diligence processes; and (c) JPMC earned fees on the loan amounts and watched the ‘special deals’ from afar, escaping responsibility for any due diligence on Madoff’s operation.”The final insult from JPMorgan Chase to the integrity of the U.S. financial system came when it notified U.K. financial authorities that it thought Madoff was running a Ponzi scheme but skipped the pesky detail of sharing that information with U.S. authorities.In case you think the bank’s long-term relationship with Madoff was a one-off failure of prudent management, think again.Since June, JPMorgan Chase has agreed to pay $365 million to rid itself of two federal lawsuits that charged it with looking the other way for 15 years as Jeffrey Epstein laundered over $1 billion through the bank in a sex trafficking of minors enterprise. Once again, no Suspicious Activity Reports were filed by the bank until after Epstein was arrested by federal prosecutors in 2019 according to the lawsuit brought by the Attorney General of the U.S. Virgin Islands. (The other lawsuit was brought by Epstein victims.) See our report: JPMorgan’s Settlements Reach $365 Million Over Civil Claims It Banked Jeffrey Epstein’s Sex Trafficking of Minors; Criminal Charges Could Lie Ahead. Another reason that the U.S. Treasury might want to select a more appropriate vendor to ensure its “payment integrity” is that just three years ago the U.S. Department of Justice criminally charged JPMorgan Chase with rigging the market for the very securities issued by the U.S. Treasury in order to pay the U.S. government’s bills. The Justice Department wrote that the bank had engaged in “thousands of instances of unlawful trading in U.S. Treasury futures contracts and in U.S. Treasury notes and bonds…” The bank was simultaneously charged with a criminal count for rigging the precious metals market.Making the vetting of JPMorgan Chase conducted by the U.S. Treasury Department look even more bogus, a former JPMorgan Chase attorney whistleblower charged in a federal lawsuit in 2021 that the bank was making improper payments to politically-connected parties and hiding the payments through dodgy accounting. The plaintiff in the case was Shaquala Williams, an attorney and financial crimes compliance professional with more than a decade of experience at multiple global banks. Williams charged in her lawsuit that JPMorgan Chase was keeping two sets of books and effectively making a monkey out of the U.S. Department of Justice by brazenly flouting the non-prosecution agreement it had signed with the Justice Department in a previous case. It came out in Williams’ deposition testimony, which is part of the court record, that one of the people being paid under her allegation of the bank keeping two sets of books was Tony Blair, the former Prime Minister of the U.K. (See our report: JPMorgan Whistleblower Names Former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair in Court Documents as Receiving “Emergency” Payments from Bank.)
Ex-Barclays CEO Staley 'recklessly' misled watchdog, probe finds -- Former Barclays boss Jes Staley has been fined £1.8 million ($2.2 million) and banned from the U.K. financial services industry after "recklessly" misleading regulators and the bank about his relationship with the late financier and sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The Financial Conduct Authority said Staley privately described Epstein as one of his "deepest" and "most cherished" friends. Yet he allowed Barclays to send a letter to the watchdog that distanced him from the financier, incorrectly stating that he'd ceased contact before joining the bank in 2015, according to the FCA. "While Mr. Staley did not draft the letter there was no excuse for his failure to correct the misleading statements," the regulator said in a statement. "Mr. Staley recklessly misled the FCA and acted with a lack of integrity." Barclays said in a separate statement that Staley should forfeit a number of awards including his bonus for 2021. Lapsed awards under the long-term incentive plan and forfeited deferred compensation were worth a total of £17.8 million, based on Monday's share price, it said. Staley, who resigned from the British lender in 2021 over the probe, is appealing the regulators' findings at a tribunal. "If I had known who JE really was, there is absolutely no doubt that I wouldn't be in the position I am in today," Staley said in a statement provided by his lawyers. "I am very disappointed by the FCA's decision and I will continue to challenge it." The FCA's decision comes after years of scrutiny over Staley's ties to Epstein when he worked for JPMorgan Chase and what he told Barclays about the relationship when he joined. The regulator published a report detailing the ties between the pair, including:
- Staley's family once flew on Epstein's private plane, which the CEO later revealed to senior Barclays staff
- Staley had detailed discussions with Epstein about his appointment at Barclays, including information he described as "very confidential"
- Between July 2008 and October 2015, Epstein and Staley exchanged more than 1,700 emails, including one sent three days before Staley was named as Barclays CEO.
UK cracks down on crypto marketing, Canada fintechs push for open banking The Financial Conduct Authority issued 146 alerts on crypto asset marketing, multiple payment companies in Canada are trying to spur adoption of open banking, and more. The Financial Conduct Authority's crypto asset promotion rules went into effect on Monday, and the agency had a busy day — issuing 146 alerts in 24 hours, with firms being given an opportunity to engage with the FCA to correct marketing before more formal steps are taken. The rules mandate that firms marketing cryptocurrencies or related assets must be authorized and registered with the FCA, or have their marketing programs approved by a firm that the FCA has authorized. The promotions must be "clear and not misleading" and labeled with risk warnings about the dangers of investing in cryptocurrency. "These changes bring crypto assets in line with other high-risk investments," the FCA said in a release. —John Adams A group of payment technology companies including Wise, Wealthsimple, Xero Canada, Borrowell and fintech industry lobbyist Fintechs Canada have started the Choose More campaign, which is pushing for open banking. Open banking refers to using data sharing to enable a single log in (usually a payment credential) to access financial and nonfinancial products from other companies. Adoption of open banking in Canada is relatively low, and there isn't a formal framework to govern open banking in Canada. The Choose More campaign is designed to pressure faster work on data portability regulations, while educating consumers about data sharing and real-time payments, which are also delayed in Canada. Small financial institutions and credit unions are also advocatingfor open banking in Canada. —
Court approves Genesis settlement of $175M to FTX, expunges billions in claims -- A New York bankruptcy judge has approved a settlement between bankrupt cryptocurrency firms FTX and Genesis Global Trading (GGC), allowing FTX-affiliated Alameda Research to receive $175 million from GGC.The United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York gave the green light to the settlement agreement between FTX and GGC’s parent company Genesis Global Holdings in a filingsubmitted on Oct. 11.After approval, Genesis debtors are officially authorized to enter into and perform under the settlement agreement and pay $175 million to FTX.In conjunction with approving the settlement amount, New York bankruptcy Judge Sean Lane has also expunged multiple claims by the FTX debtors against Genesis.According to the filing, the court has accepted the withdrawal of a large number of claims, including three claims by FTX Trading, six claims by Alameda Research, and six claims by West Realm Shires Services, which represents FTX US.The approved settlement marks a significant reduction from the amount originally claimed by FTX debtors, who collectively assertedclaims totaling around $3.9 billion in May 2023. The FTX claims included roughly $1.8 billion in loan repayments allegedly made by Alameda to GGC, $1.6 billion of assets allegedly withdrawn by the Genesis debtors from FTX and other assets.Genesis previously reportedly said the settlement was “fair and equitable” and would allow the company to avoid pursuing “protracted litigation,” the outcome of which would be “inherently uncertain.” On the other hand, FTX creditors expressed discontent over the settlement and urged the Official Committee of Unsecured Creditors of FTX to contest the agreement in August 2023.
Caroline Ellison provided 7 ‘alternative’ balance sheets hiding Alameda’s exposure to FTX - Testifying on the sixth day of Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried’s criminal trial in New York, former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellisonadmitted to providing fudged numbers for review by Genesis.According to reports from the courtroom on Oct. 11, Ellison claimedBankman-Fried directed her to create “alternative” balance sheets on Alameda’s use of crypto exchange FTX’s funds. She reportedly testified that she had provided seven spreadsheets, one of which SBF presented to Genesis. The document did not reveal that Alameda had borrowed $10 billion from FTX.“Sam said, ‘Don’t send the balance sheet to Genesis,’” said Ellison, according to reports. “We were borrowing $10 billion from FTX, and we had $5 billion in loans to our own executives and affiliated entities. We thought Genesis might share the info.”Ellison returned to the witness stand at SBF’s trial after first appearing in the courtroom on Oct. 10. In contrast to her earlier testimony, prosecutors questioned the former Alameda CEO about her feelings surrounding her deception about the firm’s financials:“I was worrying about customer withdrawals from FTX, this getting out, people to be hurt [...] I didn’t feel good. If people found out [about Alameda using FTX funds], they would all try to withdraw from FTX.”The former CEO answered in the affirmative when prosecutors asked her if she considered her actions to be “dishonest” and “wrong.” Ellison has largely placed the blame leading to the events surrounding the collapse of FTX on SBF due to his alleged direction surrounding the misuse of customer funds, while defense lawyers seem to be framing the former Alameda CEO as the instigator. Ellison is expected to be a star witness for the prosecution in SBF’s trial following testimony from FTX co-founder and former chief technology officer Gary Wang. Former FTX engineering director Nishad Singh has not taken the stand but was named as a potential witness as part of an agreement with the United States Justice Department. Prosecutors for Bankman-Fried’s criminal trial said they expected to rest their case on Oct. 26 or Oct. 27, following which the defense lawyers will start calling witnesses. SBF has pleaded not guilty to seven criminal counts related to fraud at FTX, as well as five charges he will face in a March 2024 trial.
Sam Bankman-Fried trial: Timeline of the biggest moments so far - Two of the people closest to Sam Bankman-Fried were asked the same question as they began their testimony this week: Did they commit financial crimes while working at FTX, the cryptocurrency exchange that crumbled last fall? Both Gary Wang and Caroline Ellison answered "Yes."While the finer points of cryptocurrencies, financial market trading and securities law can seem dizzying, the most striking moments in the first two weeks of Bankman-Fried's trial have been relatively simple.The government began its case not with an FTX insider, but with a commodities broker named Marc-Antoine Julliard, who said he invested $100,000 with FTX.Julliard testified that he decided to buy digital currencies to diversify his investments, and bought through FTX because it had attracted so much media coverage and because of the celebrities and investment funds involved with the company. He said he didn't make any risky trades, but lost almost all of his investment when FTX failed.Prosecutors called him to represent typical investors who, according to the government, lost money because Bankman-Fried and his co-workers fooled those investors and gave their money to Alameda's lenders or spent it on themselves. Bankman-Fried's lawyers are arguing that he did not defraud anyone, that startups like FTX are complex and often fail, and that the government is looking for someone to blame for customers' losses. Bankman-Fried, whose stake in FTX and the Alameda Research hedge fund was once estimated to be worth as much as $26 billion on paper, faces seven decades in jail on a series of federal charges related to oversight of the now-bankrupt firms. Adam Yedidia was a college friend of Bankman-Fried at MIT and worked as a software engineer for FTX in 2021-22. He said he informed Bankman-Fried in June 2022 that $8 billion in FTX customers' cash was missing, and that they later discussed the missing money in person. He said Bankman-Fried seemed unusually nervous during their conversation, and acknowledged that FTX was vulnerable.Despite that, Yedidia said he trusted Bankman-Fried. In November 2022, when the business was collapsing and people were leaving, he wrote to him on Signal and said, "I love you Sam. I'm not going anywhere."Yedidia said that changed when he learned FTX customer deposits had been used to pay loans to Alameda's creditors, which he called "flagrantly wrong." After that, he resigned.He was then asked why he lost faith in the company and quit."FTX defrauded all its customers," Yedidia said. The answer was stricken from the court record. Bankman-Fried appeared visibly upset at times during the testimony of FTX co-founder and technology chief Gary Wang. He looked at the ground at times and once put his head in his hands while Wang was on the stand.Wang told the court about the days before Alameda and FTX failed. He said the firm's leaders considered shutting Alameda down, but couldn't because it owed roughly $14 billion and had no way to pay it back.Asked about a tweet by Bankman-Fried that said, "Assets are fine," Wang said, "FTX was not fine and assets were not fine."
Star Witness Caroline Ellison Says Sam Bankman-Fried Made ‘Terrible Mistakes’ - A lawyer for Sam Bankman-Fried on Thursday sought to undermine the testimony of Caroline Ellison, the prosecution’s star witness in his criminal fraud trial, as she continued to insist that the onetime crypto mogul was behind the misuse of billions of dollars in customer money at his FTX exchange.Over about five hours of cross-examination, Mr. Bankman-Fried’s defense lawyer, Mark Cohen, questioned Ms. Ellison about her decision to cooperate with prosecutors in return for leniency. He also asked her about a document she sent to employees at Alameda Research, the crypto trading firm she ran for Mr. Bankman-Fried, which had painted a rosier picture of the firm’s finances than she had described in private. But Mr. Cohen didn’t elicit any major revelations or inconsistencies from Ms. Ellison, 28, who adhered to her previous testimony thatshe followed orders from Mr. Bankman-Fried about letting Alameda tap into FTX customer funds.“I think they were terrible mistakes,” she said of Mr. Bankman-Fried’s decisions in the summer of 2022, which ultimately led to the collapse of FTX and Alameda.Just over a week into Mr. Bankman-Fried’s trial, Ms. Ellison has emerged as the strongest witness against him. In testimony in federal court in Manhattan, she told a jury that Mr. Bankman-Fried, 31, knew for months that Alameda’s finances were in a precarious state and that the firm would be hard pressed to pay back most of the $10 billion it had borrowed from FTX customers.Ms. Ellison ran Alameda and dated Mr. Bankman-Fried. After FTX and Alameda failed in November, federal prosecutors charged Mr. Bankman-Fried with funneling billions of dollars in FTX customer deposits to Alameda, and then spending the funds on political donations, real estate purchases and other projects. He became a symbol of hubris and reckless risk taking across the crypto industry.Ms. Ellison and two other high-ranking FTX executives, Gary Wang and Nishad Singh, later pleaded guilty to fraud and agreed to cooperate with the government.Ms. Ellison, who was on the witness stand for a third day, has offered some of the most raw and emotional testimony of the trial. On Wednesday, she fought back tears as she described the implosion of Mr. Bankman-Fried’s companies, saying part of her felt relieved that she wouldn’t have to lie anymore to conceal that Alameda owed billions of dollars to FTX’s customers.Under questioning from Mr. Cohen, Ms. Ellison conceded that she sent a misleading document to Alameda employees last year that presented a more bullish version of the trading firm’s performance than she had discussed with Mr. Bankman-Fried.“Yeah I would say it was misleading about the true state of Alameda in this document,” she testified.But Ms. Ellison said she did that to keep up the morale of Alameda employees at a time when the crypto market was under widespread stress.Ms. Ellison also said that after Mr. Bankman-Fried put her in charge of Alameda in 2021, he didn’t get involved in many of the firm’s major decisions.To show that Mr. Bankman-Fried wasn’t fully aware of what was happening at Alameda, Mr. Cohen asked Ms. Ellison about an instance when she realized that some FTX customer deposits were landing in Alameda’s bank accounts. FTX had used Alameda to store customer funds before it got its own bank accounts, but had experienced an issue in redirecting those funds.Ms. Ellison said of Mr. Bankman-Fried that she didn’t recall “getting an impression of whether he was aware or not of this” issue. Mr. Cohen noted that this was inconsistent with what she had told prosecutors in an earlier interview, when she said Mr. Bankman-Fried might not have known about the problem.Ms. Ellison also said Mr. Bankman-Fried got more involved in Alameda by spring 2022 and that he decided to tap into FTX customer money to pay back lenders of the trading firm.
Inside the meeting where Caroline Ellison came clean to Alameda staff, per a secret recording from an employee who started 3 days earlier - On Nov. 9, just two days before the crypto exchange FTX declared bankruptcy, almost all 30 employees from Alameda Research gathered both virtually and in person at the crypto hedge fund’s office in Hong Kong. “I guess I’ll just start by saying some stuff,” said Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda, at the beginning of the biweekly “all-hands” meeting. She proceeded to tell staff how Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of both Alameda and FTX, took FTX customer funds to pay back loans, according to audio secretly recorded by an employee who had just started three days beforehand. The government introduced snippets of the muffled recording during its questioning of Christian Drappi, a former Alameda employee who gave a copy of the audio to prosecutors. These snippets were the most vivid evidence to surface on Thursday—in contrast to the muted testimony from Ellison as Bankman-Fried’s lawyers cross-examined her for all of the morning and most of the afternoon. After the defense ended its cross-examination of Ellison on Thursday afternoon, the government called Drappi, who was a developer at Alameda for more than a year, to the witness stand. Prior to November, Drappi had no knowledge of Bankman-Fried’s alleged conspiracy to withdraw customer funds from FTX to spend—through Alameda—on venture investments, loan repayments, and risky crypto bets. That changed on Nov. 8, at approximately 11 p.m. In the Hong Kong office, Tony Qian, a colleague of Drappi’s, was scrolling through Twitter (now X) and saw a tweet from Bankman-Fried that announced “a strategic transaction with Binance for FTX.com.” Qian asked Ellison, who was standing near both Drappi and Qian, whether Bankman-Fried’s announcement was true. Ellison confirmed it, and explained that it was because FTX had a shortfall of user funds that were taken from Alameda to pay back billions of dollars in loans. “I was utterly shocked,” testified Drappi. The next day, at what happened to be a regular biweekly meeting with all Alameda staff, Ellison came clean. Sitting on a beanbag chair, Ellison appeared “sunken, slouching,” according to Drappi. After some brief opening words, she relayed to colleagues the crux of the matter: “Alameda borrowed a bunch of money to make illiquid investments,” she said. “We ended up, like, borrowing a bunch of funds from FTX.” Staff members inevitably had questions, including Drappi. He asked Ellison about who else at either Alameda or FTX knew that customer funds were being withdrawn from the exchange, per the audio, which was recorded by Rick Best, an employee who joined Alameda three days earlier. Ellison initially dodged the question, but Drappi pushed back and asked who explicitly knew. “I’m sure this wasn’t, like, a YOLO thing, right?” he added. Ellison copped that Bankman-Fried, herself, Gary Wang, and Nishad Singh—the latter three all since agreeing to plea deals—were in the know. And who said to use FTX customer funds? With a nervous giggle, she replied: “Um…Sam, I guess?”
Bankman-Fried didn’t believe in rules like “don’t steal,” star witness says - Over three days of testimony in Sam Bankman-Fried's criminal trial, Caroline Ellison provided revealing glimpses from the years in which she was SBF's on-and-off girlfriend and one of his top executives. Ellison's testimony described Bankman-Fried's belief that he could become US president, and his belief that his hair "was an important part of FTX's narrative and image." She offered details on a failed attempt to use prostitutes' identities to unlock funds frozen by the Chinese government, and on Bankman-Fried's habit of describing hypothetical coin flips in which everything—even the fate of the whole world—would be put at risk. She also described how Bankman-Fried had a "utilitarian" philosophy in which rules like "don't lie" and "don't steal" did not fit into his moral framework. Testifying at a federal court in New York, Ellison reportedly said Bankman-Fried was "very ambitious" and that he "thought there was a 5 percent chance he would become president some day." And by "president," he did mean president of the United States, according to a courtroom exchange reported by the Associated Press:"When you say president, what are you referring to?" asked Assistant US Attorney Danielle Sassoon."Of the United States," Ellison answered.Bankman-Fried believed that his unkempt head of hair was valuable to him and FTX financially, Ellison testified. "He said he thought his hair had been very valuable," she said, according to The Guardian. "He said ever since Jane Street [a hedge fund they both worked at], he thought he had gotten higher bonuses because of his hair and that it was an important part of FTX's narrative and image."Ellison said that Bankman-Fried tried to cultivate an image as a "smart, competent, somewhat eccentric founder," according to Reuters. For a time he drove a company-owned luxury car in the Bahamas but switched to a Toyota Corolla. "He said he thought it was better for his image," Ellison said."I would say he looked like he didn't put a lot of effort into his personal appearance. He dressed sort of sloppily and didn't cut his hair often," she also said. Bankman-Fried did get a haircut before the trial began.Bankman-Fried is facing six charges for defrauding FTX's and Alameda's customers and investors, and one charge for conspiracy to commit money laundering. The seven charges' maximum sentences add up to 110 years. He faces five additional criminal charges in a separate trial scheduled for April 2024. Ellison was CEO of Alameda Research, a crypto hedge fund and affiliate of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, but she testified that all major decisions were ultimately made by Bankman-Fried. Ellison admitted to committing fraud and said that Bankman-Fried "directed me to commit these crimes."
CFTC sues former CEO of bankrupt crypto lender Voyager The co-founder and former chief executive officer of Voyager Digital broke derivatives rules while at the helm of the crypto lender, leading to its bankruptcy and $1.7 billion in customer losses, U.S. regulators alleged Thursday. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit against Stephen Ehrlich in U.S. federal court in New York, claiming he and Voyager "fraudulently solicited participation in and operated a digital asset trading and custody platform." The agency accused the firm of luring customers with promises of returns as high as 12% on certain crypto holdings and making misleading statements about the platform's safety. Through those enticements, Voyager facilitated billions of dollars worth of transactions involving digital assets that were commodities, including bitcoin and Circle's USD Coin, according to the CFTC. Voyager was one of the dominoes to fall in 2022's crypto chaos. The industry is still reeling from the tumult, which culminated in the collapse of crypto trading giant FTX. The criminal trial of FTX's co-founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, began last week in New York. Separately, Ehrlich was also sued by the Federal Trade Commission for allegedly making false claims about the availability of Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. protection to Voyager's former customers. The FTC said in a news release Thursday that Ehrlich assured customers that their deposits were safe even as the firm approached bankruptcy. Voyager settled with the agency and agreed to a permanent ban from handling consumers' assets with admitting or denying allegations. Representatives for Voyager and Ehrlich didn't immediately provide comment. Bloomberg News previously reported that CFTC investigators had concluded that Ehrlich broke agency rules and that the attorney administering Voyager's wind-down had signed off on a settlement with the FTC.
Crypto Mining Spews Pollution, Not Wealth, into Rural Communities -- Critics of crypto-mining operations say the burgeoning industry is not delivering on promises to provide jobs and economic development to rural areas in exchange for cheap power and tax breaks.Little available data suggests that the companies that use massive, power-hungry data centers, tend to be located in rural areas. Critics say those operations may be harming rural communities more than they are helping.According to Earthjustice, a national organization focusing on environmental law, crypto mining’s power usage may be increasing pollution. But because the industry is largely unregulated, measuring its impact on the regions where it operates is difficult.Crypto mining uses large banks of computers to generate crypto currency by solving complex mathematical problems. The work requires lots of processing power and therefore lots of electricity.Determining how many crypto-mining facilities are in operation is difficult, according to FracTracker Alliance, an organization that documents how crypto-mining facilities use energy.“Because there is no centralized registry or clearinghouse for this elusive industry, it is challenging, if not impossible, to maintain an up-to-the-minute and comprehensive tally of all the locations, sizes, and other details about where new cryptocurrency mining facilities are emerging,” the organization said on its web site. As of November 2022, the organization said, there were 165 sites across the country — 84 in operation, 41 proposed, seven under construction and two defeated. The organization said the status of the remaining 33 is unknown. In Kentucky, several crypto-mining operations have sprung up in the last three years after legislation was passed granting them tax incentives. Among those plants are Biofuel Mining in Inez, Cyber Innovations in Belfry, Umine LLC in McKee, Bitiki Mine in Waverly, Core Scientific in Calvert City, and Ebon International in Louisa. All of these locations are in nonmetropolitan (or rural) counties. The mining operations require the servers to run 24 hours a day. According to the White House, in 2022, the U.S. hosted about 38% of all global Bitcoin mining activity, up from just 3.5 % in 2020. Earthjustice said between mid-2021 and 2022 crypto mining required 36 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity – as much as all of the electricity consumed by Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont and Rhode Island combined. Earthjustice estimates that energy consumption resulted in nearly 30 million tons of excess CO2 emissions in 2022 alone.
Embracing fintech led to trouble for one small bank. So did the aftermath. | Blue Ridge Bank, a community bank in Virginia that dove headfirst into the business of partnering with fintechs, has been in a pinch ever since getting hit with a broad enforcement action last year.After nearly a year of turmoil, the company's new CEO told S&P Global Market Intelligence this summer that the bank was reducing its focus on fintechs and shifting back to its roots in community banking.Since that interview was published, the stock price of parent company Blue Ridge Bancshares has fallen more than 50%, adding to a rout that was already underway. The market punished the bank when its compliance problems first surfaced, then punished it again when executives decided to scale back the bank's exposure to the fintech market.Blue Ridge's travails illustrate the perilous path facing numerous small banks that did not pay enough attention to compliance as they embraced the high-growth business of partnering with fintechs.That business — often called banking-as-a-service — may now be in a consolidation phase, according to industry watchers. "Banking-as-a-service as a silver bullet for community banks — I think that idea is dead," said Alex Johnson, an industry veteran who writes the Fintech Takes newsletter.The pressure is mounting on not just small banks, but also middleware providers that stand between those banks and fintechs. Community banks may now be more hesitant to work with middleware platforms than they were in the past, Johnson said.One such firm, Synapse, said it laid off 40% of its staff last week after losing a major client. Blue Ridge, which declined to comment for this article, has been reeling since it entered into a public agreement with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in August 2022. The OCC ordered the Martinsville, Virginia-based bank to bolster its oversight of fintech partners and improve its controls for the prevention of money laundering.
SEC proposal could slow innovation in trading, panel says -- A Securities and Exchange Commission proposal designed to regulate the use of predictive data analytics and AI by broker-dealers and investment advisors could slow the sector's pace of innovation and increase costs for clients, panelists said at a Security Traders Association conference Friday.The SEC's proposal, released in July, would require broker-dealers and investment advisors to "eliminate or neutralize" conflicts of interest related to the use of "covered" technologies in investor interactions, such as analytical functions, algorithms and models that predict, guide or direct investment-related behaviors. Firms would also be required to maintain policies and recordkeeping related to possible conflicts of interest. Panelists, which included leaders at Robinhood and the American Securities Association, critiqued the proposal for being vague, onerous and costly to broker-dealers and investment advisors.Matt Billings, vice president of brokerage and president at Robinhood Financial and Robinhood Securities, said the proposal feels rushed. He added any rulemaking should start with extensive cross-industry conversation, data analysis and economic analysis. "All the costs that we discussed that we'll absorb, that's going to leech down to the investor," Billings said. "Then, with all this intense amount of policy and procedures and recordkeeping, maybe a firm decides not to offer that covered technology, or maybe they slow down their pace of innovation … the result of that is a worse experience for the client."SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said in a September hearing held by the Senate Banking Committee that AI is already being used in financial markets and could pose a systemic risk to the financial system."If an investment advisor, think about a robo advisor, is telling you their advice and it's purely based on your family and your wealth and so forth, great," Gensler said at the hearing. "But if they're also taking into account their own interest and profits, their revenues and the like, therein lies a potential conflict. And whether they're using machine learning or other data analytics, there may be a conflict there." Many banks, such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon, would also be impacted by the rule. Morgan Stanley is using generative AI to assist financial advisors with investment advice, CNBC reported, and JPMorgan Chase is developing a ChatGPT-like service to help select investments for clients.In comment letters to the SEC, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley both said the proposal was unnecessary and overly burdensome. Panelists and comment letters also note that the proposed rule extends beyond artificial intelligence and emerging technologies to include common spreadsheets. JPMorgan said in its letter that the SEC should propose a rule "narrowly targeted to address" concerns around technology-driven interactions "where conflicts of interest are not disclosed or evident to a reasonable retail investor."
Syndicated loans pose systemic risks, regulator warns --A Democrat on the US Securities and Exchange Commission is warning that syndicated loans sold widely to investors are stoking risks to the broader financial system. Regulators should consider whether additional investor protections are needed for the fast-growing market, Caroline Crenshaw, an SEC commissioner, said in a speech Wednesday. She flagged a lack of transparency, and questions about whether the products should be covered by securities rules. The level of risk may be reaching "a scale that could affect the financial system more broadly," she said in remarks to be delivered at the Center for American Progress, a liberal-leaning think tank in Washington. In March, a federal court asked the SEC to weigh in on the issue, but the agency ultimately declined to do so. In August, the court ruled that leveraged loans don't qualify as securities, handing a win to JPMorgan Chase, the defendant in the case. Investors in syndicated loans, which can involve a significant amount of risk if they're extended to lower-rated companies, have typically been hedge funds, insurance companies, pension funds and other sophisticated players. However, retail investors also have significant exposure, Crenshaw said. She said syndicated loans are increasingly marketed to the broader public as investments to hedge against rising interest rates. The SEC and banking watchdogs should review the dynamic, Crenshaw added.
Senate Banking Republicans want answers from Fed on CSI leak - Ten Senate Banking Committee members have called on the Federal Reserve to investigate how confidential information about several banks was leaked to the public.The members — which include every Republican on the committee except ranking member Tim Scott, R-S.C. — sent a letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Sept. 29. In it, they wrote that it was "deeply troubling" that confidential supervisory information, or CSI, about Citizens Financial Group, Fifth Third Bancorp, M&T Bank Corp. and others had been made available to news reporters."Unfortunately, this raises serious questions as to the policies and procedures the [Fed] has in place to protect confidential supervisory information from inappropriate disclosure," the senators wrote. "We do not wish to believe the alternative, that these disclosures were done deliberately in an effort to advance a particular policy agenda."The letter, which was not publicized by the Banking Committee or any of its members, was sent in response to an Aug. 30 article published by Bloomberg, which notes that a "slew" of private warnings — known as matters requiring attention, or MRAs — have been sent to large banks since the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in March. The piece also cites specific MRAs sent to Citizens, Fifth Third, M&T, KeyCorp, Huntington Bancshares, Regions Financial Corp. and First Citizens BankShares. Issues raised in the correspondence include liquidity and capital shortcomings as well as deficiencies regarding technology and compliance, according to the Bloomberg report. All seven banks have more than $100 billion of total assets, putting them in the crosshairs ofregulatory reform proposals put forth by the Fed and other bank regulators this year, including new risk-weighted capital requirements and long-term debt requirements. In the aftermath of three large bank failures earlier this year, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr has said repeatedly that supervision and regulation of banks between $100 billion and $250 billion of assets has not been up to snuff. He has pledged to overhaul the Fed's approach to supervision to ensure the safety and soundness of the banking system.The Bloomberg report notes an "onslaught" of supervisory actions against similarly sized institutions, a development that Senate Banking Republicans say indicates the Fed has learned the "wrong lessons" from the bank failures earlier this year."While adequate supervision cannot occur if Fed examiners fail to act on clear and present threats to safety and soundness, adequate supervision is likewise impaired if attempts to over-correct for past failures result in an over-emphasis on quantitative rather than qualitative metrics for the issuance [of MRAs and MRIAs]," the letter reads. "Likewise, adequate supervision cannot occur should the Fed be seen as an institution willing to leak CSI to advance its own narratives." ‘
There Are Two Reasons that 75 Percent of U.S. Banks Didn’t Hedge Their Interest Rate Risk as the Fed Hiked Rates at the Fastest Pace in 40 Years - An academic study released in April found that during the fastest pace of Fed interest rate hikes in 40 years, the majority of U.S. banks failed to hedge their interest rate risk.The study on hedging is titled: Limited Hedging and Gambling for Resurrection by U.S. Banks During the 2022 Monetary Tightening? Its authors are Erica Jiang, Assistant Professor of Finance and Business Economics at USC Marshall School of Business; Gregor Matvos, Chair in Finance at the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University; Tomasz Piskorski, Professor of Real Estate in the Finance Division at Columbia Business School; and Amit Seru, Professor of Finance at Stanford Graduate School of Business. Among the key findings of the study are the following:
- “Over three quarters of all reporting banks report no material use of interest rate swaps.”
- “Only 6% of aggregate assets in the U.S. banking system are hedged by interest rate swaps.”
- “Banks with the most fragile funding – i.e., those with highest uninsured leverage — sold or reduced their hedges during the monetary tightening. This allowed them to record accounting profits but exposed them to further rate increases. These actions are reminiscent of classic gambling for resurrection: if interest rates had decreased, equity would have reaped the profits, but if rates increased, then debtors and the FDIC would absorb the losses.”
One of the two key reasons for this lack of hedging was to window dress the bank’s earnings. The authors explain as follows: “…we show that banks with more fragile funding decreased the amount of hedging activity during the period of monetary tightening. One might conjecture that banks more exposed to solvency runs would have larger incentives to avoid further asset value declines and thus avoid failure, so they might want to increase their hedging activities. Instead, we find that banks with higher uninsured leverage (higher share of uninsured deposit funding) sold or reduced their hedges during 2022. Because of reduced hedges, these banks went on to suffer larger losses when interest rates increased further. A case study of the recently failed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is illustrative. SVB hedged about 12% of all securities at the end of 2021. By the end of 2022, they hedged only 0.4% of all securities. During this period, the duration of their assets increased by almost two years. So, every additional percentage point increase in the policy rate led to a two-percentage point larger decrease in asset values than it would have in 2021. Reduction in hedges by the banks with more fragile funding is suggestive of gambling for resurrection. Selling profitable hedges allows weak banks to increase current accounting earnings. At the same time these banks have taken a large risk, which is profitable for bank shareholders on the upside, but the losses are borne by the FDIC on the downside.”But the other key reason for the lack of hedging relates to a controversial accounting category called “Held-to-Maturity” or HTM. The authors explain:“When banks report assets in their financial disclosures, two categories are relevant to hedging transactions: debt securities and derivatives. Debt securities can be classified at management’s discretion based on their intent with the securities as either available for sale (‘AFS’) or held to maturity (‘HTM’). AFS securities can be sold at banks’ discretion, and their value is marked to market (fair value) with unrealized gains and losses reported in ‘other comprehensive income.’ HTM assets are intended and designated to be held to maturity, with the bank planning to collect the cash flows of the duration of the asset. HTM assets are recorded and held at cost, with differences between cost and fair value disclosed (occasionally) in footnotes. Hedging HTM securities would require banks to record changes in the value of these assets (which are otherwise held at cost) and reflect them directly on their income statement, resulting in the loss of the securities’ HTM accounting status. This accounting treatment reduces banks’ incentives to hedge HTM securities if they perceive such fluctuations in reported earnings as costly and prefer to retain the HTM designation.” CPA/CFA Sandy Peters posted the following at the CFA Institute website, which clarifies what the HTM category is all about at many of the banks using it:“What that means is that the financial statement carrying value of those financial instruments held-to-maturity is reflected at amortized cost, or what management paid for the asset sometime in the past plus amortization of the discount or premium from the face value. The fair value is only disclosed on the face of the financial statement and in the footnotes. Any unrealized loss is ‘hidden in plain sight.’According to the FDIC’s quarterly report for the quarter ending June 30, “Unrealized losses on securities totaled $558.4 billion in the second quarter, up $42.9 billion (8.3 percent) from the prior quarter. Unrealized losses on held-to-maturity securities totaled $309.6 billion in the second quarter, while unrealized losses on available-for-sale securities totaled $248.9 billion.”The chart below from the FDIC’s Quarterly Banking Profile shows just how dramatic the unrealized losses are this time around versus other periods of banking stress.
FDIC proposes stricter governance guidelines for regional banks — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. issued proposed guidelines directing large banks to establish and promote risk management strategies, ethical codes and policies that ensure safe and sound operations, compliance with regulations and consumer protections. In a statement accompanying the proposal, FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg argued that a string of regional bank failures earlier this year were accelerated by poor corporate governance, demonstrating the need for the agency to codify more stringent corporate governance standards for regional banks. "The FDIC believes that larger, more complex [insured depository institutions, or IDIs] require more sophisticated and formal corporate governance and risk management structures and practices," he said. "The proposed guidelines would clarify the FDIC's expectation that corporate governance and risk management frameworks need to evolve along with growth, complexity and changing business models and risk profiles of larger IDIs." Under the proposal, the board of directors at all FDIC-supervised institutions — primarily state-chartered banks that are not part of the Federal Reserve system — with more than $10 billion of assets would need to establish risk management programs commensurate with the firm's size, risk profile, complexity and business model. The guidance also directs applicable banks to implement what's known as a "three-line-of-defense" risk management model to keep tabs on reporting risks. The layers of such a model would consist of risk management in banks' business units, an independent risk management program helmed by a chief risk officer and an internal audit. The guidance further notes banks will be responsible for proactively communicating their risk appetite and maintaining a strategy for promoting compliance by their staff and reporting any breaches of their articulated risk limits. "The FDIC observed during the 2008 financial crisis and more recent bank failures in 2023 that financial institutions with poor corporate governance and risk management practices were more likely to fail," the proposal notes. "Corporate and risk governance structure and practices should keep pace with the bank's changes in size, business model, risk profile, and complexity [and] larger or more complex institutions should have more sophisticated and formal board and management structures and practices." As proposed, the guidance also requires a majority of a bank's directors to have no affiliation with its parent holding company in order to increase the board's independence in decision-making. National banks are already subject to similar standards established by the OCC.
Citigroup's Dugan says U.S. capital plan threatens bank lending -- Citigroup Chairman John C. Dugan said U.S. plans to hike capital buffers for the biggest Wall Street banks are unwarranted and will push lending and intermediation away from the banking sector. The proposals appeared "somewhat bizarrely" to be a response to the problems at U.S. regional banks in March, Dugan told Bloomberg Television's Francine Lacqua on Wednesday. The eight biggest institutions — including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs Group, Bank of America and Citigroup — would have to increase their capital by about 19% under the plans. "We believe it really will have a material impact on the amount of lending that U.S. companies can do generally, which is not a good thing when the economy is more or less in a precarious position," said Dugan, who was also the U.S. comptroller of the currency from 2005 to 2010. "Our largest banks including Citi are very strong from a safety-and-soundness perspective in terms of capital levels and liquidity levels." The effort by the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is tied to Basel III, an international regulatory agreement that began more than a decade ago in response to the 2008 financial crisis. Democratic regulators argue the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, followed by First Republic Bank's collapse in May, injected urgency into the need for tougher rules. Dugan weighed in on the redundancies under Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser and said there wasn't a specific number of how many people would be laid off. "It's about making sure we get the roles right to simplify the company," he said. "In a couple of years, we believe it will be a much simpler bank, our expenses will go down, our revenues will go up as a result."
Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision Says Another Financial Crisis Could Cost U.S. $5 Trillion to $25 Trillion – Potentially as Much as 100 Percent of GDP - By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: October 12, 2023 ~ On Monday, Michael Barr, the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, addressed a contentious issue in a speech before the American Bankers Association’s annual convention in Nashville. The topic was why federal banking regulators have proposed higher capital levels for the largest U.S. banks, those with assets over $100 billion.As we reported on September 20, there has been aggressive pushback on the proposal from large banks, their lobbyists and their trade associations. (Community banks are not impacted by the proposal.) During his speech, Barr put a staggering dollar figure on the destruction to the U.S. economy that could materialize from another major financial crisis. Barr said this: “Research suggests the costs of a financial crisis are sizable. While estimates vary widely, the cumulative loss in economic activity is consistently estimated to lie above 20 percent of annual GDP—and in some estimates up to 100 percent of GDP. For the United States, these estimates imply losses from financial crises of $5 trillion to $25 trillion based on current GDP. The macroeconomic benefit of increased capital comes from reducing the likelihood of such a costly event. Better capitalized banks are better able to absorb losses and continue to lend to households and businesses through times of stress, which in turn, helps to ensure that we have a healthy and strong economy.”Banks could have been building up their capital over the years by simply retaining earnings. Instead, the largest banks have been using tens of billions of dollars in earnings each year to buy back the bank’s own stock. That puts an artificial prop under the bank’s share price and allows the top executives to get fat bonuses for good share price performance.In June 2020, reporters at Bloomberg News dropped a bombshell, revealing that the four largest U.S. Banks — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo — had spent more on dividends and share buybacks than the banks had actually earned from January 2017 through March of 2020. The reporters wrote this:“From the start of 2017 through March, the four banks cumulatively returned about $1.26 to shareholders for every $1 they reported in net income, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Citigroup returned almost twice as much money to its stockholders as it earned, according to the data, which includes dividends on preferred shares. The banks declined to comment.”In July of 2017, Thomas Hoenig, then Vice Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), sent a letter to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. He made these points in his letter:“[If] the 10 largest U.S. Bank Holding Companies [BHCs] were to retain a greater share of their earnings earmarked for dividends and share buybacks in 2017 they would be able to increase loans by more than $1 trillion, which is greater than 5 percent of annual U.S. GDP.“Four of the 10 BHCs will distribute more than 100 percent of their current year’s earnings, which alone could support approximately $537 billion in new loans to Main Street.“If share buybacks of $83 billion, representing 72 percent of total payouts for these 10 BHCs in 2017, were instead retained, they could, under current capital rules, increase small business loans by three quarters of a trillion dollars or mortgage loans by almost one and a half trillion dollars.”In his speech on Monday, Barr did not address the issue of stock buybacks, but he did take on the whines of bank executives like JPMorgan Chase’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, who is challenging the proposal to hold larger amounts of capital by using the canard that it will force the banks to reduce making loans. Barr said this:“The effective rise in capital requirements related to lending activities in the current proposal is a small portion of the estimated overall capital increase. The bulk of the rise in required capital anticipated in the proposed rule is attributed to trading and other activities besides lending—activities that have generated outsized losses at large banks and areas where our current rules have shortcomings. The estimated increase in capital required for lending activities on average—inclusive of both credit risk and operational risk requirements—is limited. Such a rise might be expected to increase the cost to banks for funding the average lending portfolio by up to 3 basis points—0.03 percentage points…“The private costs of capital must be weighed against the social benefits of higher capital in creating a healthier, more resilient financial system, and reducing the likelihood of financial crises. As we indicated in the preamble to the [Basel] endgame proposal, historical experience—particularly our experience during the Global Financial Crisis—demonstrates the severe impact that distress or failure at individual banking organizations can have on the stability of the U.S. banking system. Fifteen years ago, the Global Financial Crisis starkly revealed the cost to society of a banking system that had held insufficient capital. The financial crisis upended lives and did severe damage to the economy, causing the worst and longest recession since the Great Depression. It took six years for employment to recover, during which time long-term unemployment ran for long periods at a record high, and more than 10 million people fell into poverty. Six million families lost their homes to foreclosure. And these costs occurred even with an unprecedentedly large response by government.”
Fed's Bowman calls regulatory reform a financial stability risk -Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman further cemented herself as the voice of opposition to recently proposed regulatory capital changes in a speech on Wednesday.In remarks delivered on stage at the Marrakesh Economic Festival in Morocco, Bowman argued that capital requirements are "no substitute" for sufficient bank supervision. She added that changes to the regulatory framework could have significant consequences, especially for midsized and smaller banks."In my view, regulatory reform can pose significant financial stability risks, particularly if those changes to regulation fail to take sufficient account of the incentive effects and potential consequences," she said.Bowman said she was not opposed to regulatory reform entirely, but noted that the focus should be on expanding the regulatory perimeter to address financial risks that have migrated outside the banking system and closing regulatory gaps. She added that more could be done toenforce rules that are already on the books.Bowman also took aim at the Fed's supervisory practices leading up to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, which, by all accounts, emphasized identifying as many issues as possible at the bank over trying to address the most pressing ones. "To effectively support financial stability, bank supervision cannot simply rely on pinpointing compliance issues, failed processes or rule violations," she said. "It must go further to examine a bank's critical risk exposures while prioritizing core safety and soundness issues in the context of its financial condition." Appointed to the Federal Reserve Board in 2018 to fill the seat reserved for someone with a community banking or state bank supervision background, Bowman has emerged as the most ardent critic of the central bank's current regulatory agenda, as set by Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr. Bowman voted against initiating a rulemaking process on the so-called Basel III endgame in July. That proposal, which was put forth in collaboration with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, sets new risk-weighted capital rules for various operational risks within banks.
Banks in Europe get world's first ESG add-on to capital rules - In a global first, Europe's main bank regulator is revising the framework that sets capital requirements so that lenders reflect environmental and social risks in mandatory, industrywide buffers. The European Banking Authority has identified "some short-term fixes" to minimum requirements — known as Pillar 1 — "that can already be implemented," Chairman Jose Manuel Campa said in an interview. Others will be phased in over time, with some requiring new legislation, the EBA said. The new requirements, outlined in a report published by the EBA on Thursday, mark the first in what's set to be a continuous reworking of the capital framework within which European banks must operate. The goal is to reflect the increasing threat to financial stability that regulators now see from ESG factors such as climate change and inequality. ESG is "changing the risk profile for the banking sector," according to the EBA. The development is expected to become more pronounced over time and has implications for "traditional categories of financial risks, such as credit, market and operational risks," it said. Until now, regulatory focus has largely been on disclosure and individual bank risk (known as Pillar 2), due in large part to a lack of adequate data and methodologies for calculating sector-wide ESG risks. The bank industry, meanwhile, has been emphatic in its opposition to such far-reaching capital requirements.
FDIC launches deposit insurance awareness campaign for general public — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced Wednesday the launch of a new campaign to raise the general public's awareness about deposit insurance.The agency said the consumer-focused campaign is intended to target often marginalized consumers who may be less trustworthy of the banking system, including the unbanked, those who use online payment apps as well as consumers who have turned to alternative 'imitation banks' — which often appear to be FDIC-insured, but are not."Consumers today have a variety of options for where they can put their money. Evidence suggests many people may be confused whether their funds are protected by deposit insurance," said FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg. "In light of concerns raised by the bank failures earlier this year, this is an important moment for the FDIC to reach out to the public and ensure that more consumers understand deposit insurance and how it protects their money."Under Gruenberg, the FDIC has made defending the credibility of its deposit insurance a top priority — something especially important for rebuilding consumer confidence in the banking system after numerous regional banks failed this year. In its release, the FDIC noted a Gallup poll following the failures found roughly half of Americans were concerned with the safety of their deposits at banks and other financial institutions. "This uncertainty also suggests a significant percentage of those surveyed are unaware money deposited into an FDIC-insured bank is protected up to at least $250,000," the FDIC noted in its release. "More than 99% of deposit accounts in the U.S. today are under this deposit insurance coverage limit and are fully protected by the FDIC."The FDIC's public awareness campaign uses an endangered piggy bank as a metaphor for Americans who may be putting their money at risk by using nonbank financial services that lack deposit insurance. The digital campaign will run through November and will resume in January 2024 with the start of the traditional tax filing season and when many consumers receive refund payments.
CFPB, DOJ warn lenders against denying credit to immigrants - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Justice Department warned financial institutions that discriminating against credit applicants based on their immigration status could violate the Equal Credit Opportunity Act. The CFPB and DOJ issued a joint statement on Thursday reminding banks and other lenders that blanket policies denying credit to immigrants may run afoul of the law. "Creditors should be aware that unnecessary or overbroad reliance on immigration status in the credit decisioning process, including when that reliance is based on bias, may run afoul of ECOA's anti-discrimination provisions and could also violate other laws," the agencies said in the joint statement. The agencies said that some financial institutions have maintained blanket policies denying credit to individuals based on their immigration status regardless of a demonstrated ability to repay. Other financial institutions have incorrectly claimed that the Equal Credit Opportunity Act shields lenders from liability under other federal and state civil rights laws that bar discrimination on the basis of someone's status as an immigrant or noncitizen. Neither the Equal Credit Opportunity Act nor its implementing regulation, Regulation B, provide companies with a safe harbor from other laws barring discrimination on the basis of immigration status, the agencies said. "Lenders should not deny people the opportunity to take out a loan to buy a home, build their businesses or otherwise pursue their financial goals because of unlawful bias and without regard to their actual ability to repay," Assistant Attorney General Kristen Clarke, of the Justice Department's civil rights division, said in a statement. "This guidance reminds lenders that denying someone access to credit based solely on their actual or perceived immigrant status may violate federal law." The CFPB said in a blog post that it has launched an initiative to understand the financial experiences of immigrants better. The bureau is urging immigrants to file complaints against companies that may be engaging in lending discrimination or other unlawful credit practices, wrote Sonia Lin, a senior fellow at the CFPB and a former adjunct law professor at Yeshiva University's Cardozo School of Law.
CFPB clamps down on 'excessive' account information fees — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has issued an advisory opinion barring banks and credit unions with more than $10 billion in assets from charging consumers "excessive fees" for basic information about their own accounts. The bureau cited, in its rationale for the advisory opinion, a provision in the Consumer Financial Protection Act that requires banks and credit unions with more than $10 billion in assets to provide account information when it is requested by consumers. The CFPB said it "does not intend to seek monetary relief" for potential violations of this provision that occurred before Feb. 1, 2024. "Congress passed a law a decade ago requiring heightened customer service standards," said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra. "To date, this law has not been enforced. We are changing that." The relevant portion of the law — section 1034(c) — says only that a bank has to provide that information in a "timely manner," and does not specifically mention fees associated with those requests. A senior administration official told American Banker that bank fees associated with those requests can go beyond the reasonable costs of complying with the request — costs like identity verification and data security measures. "Large banks may not impose conditions that unreasonably impede consumers' information requests," said the senior official. "The practice of charging fees to respond to an information request would generally unreasonably impede consumers' exercise of their rights under section 1034(c), and thus violate the provision." Chopra attributed the bureau's decision to issue an advisory opinion to what the CFPB called large banks' "shift away from a relationship banking model." "Local banks tend to put a heavy emphasis on customer service because they make their money through their customer relationships," Chopra said. "That's why they'll often take the time to help you with any problems that arise. But big banks in our country have mostly abandoned relationship banking, and have shifted toward algorithmic banking or assembly line-style banking. Many of them now use chatbots and artificial intelligence to discourage or prevent us from talking to a human."
Biden unveils new action on 'junk fees' to counter rising costs — President Joe Biden announced a new rule that would require businesses to show consumers the full price of goods and services upfront, calling it "the most comprehensive action" his administration has taken yet on hidden or confusing charges. "These junk fees can add up to hundreds of dollars weighing down family budgets, making it harder to pay family bills," Biden said Wednesday at the White House. "These junk fees may not matter to the wealthy, but they sure do matter to working folks in homes like the one I grew up in." The proposed Federal Trade Commission rule would bar businesses from charging hidden or misleading fees and require them to disclose whether any fees are refundable. The proposal would apply to a wide range of industries subject to FTC oversight, including event ticketing, hotels and apartments or car rentals. Biden said the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau would also propose a new rule to make it easier for consumers to switch banks, which he said would increase competition and lower fees. The president said research shows that consumers can end up paying as much as 20% more because of hidden junk fees than they would have paid if they could see the full price upfront. And he stressed that the proposed FTC rule would have teeth, allowing the agency to punish businesses that do not comply. "FTC would have the power to impose financial penalties on companies that don't disclose their full upfront price and secure refunds for customers who have been defrauded by companies charging hidden fees," Biden said.
How Visa and Mastercard are fighting friendly fraud - Friendly fraud — which refers to customers requesting a refund for an otherwise legitimate payment — is getting worse, increasing the danger of financial losses and the risk of security overreach to fight the problem. Officially called first party fraud, this scam has always been a problem, but it has expanded in recent years — particularly during the growth of e-commerce during and after the pandemic, and through the recent bout of high inflation. "When friendly fraud occurs, the merchant is often left to absorb most of the losses of the dispute, despite providing a legitimate good or service to the consumer," said Paul Fabara, chief risk officer at Visa. "We've seen that these ramifications can include losses that can be up to double the original transaction amount, which can impact merchants' businesses and their bottom line." Visa and Mastercard have updated their dispute policies to address friendly fraud, while trying to avoid adding financial burdens to merchants or issuers, or requiring merchants to add extra vetting. The card network's moves may make a difference, but will require updates from merchants and issuers that may take time. "First -party fraud is still a significant issue, and it's not just in the U.S. but a growing problem globally," said David Mattei, strategic advisor for the fraud and anti-money laundering practice at Datos Insights."This form of fraud continues to grow annually and stopping it is difficult. It is also one topic that both merchants and financial institutions can wholeheartedly agree upon. A solution is needed to stop this." Visa's new compelling evidence policy allows merchants to submit proof of a pattern of legitimate transactions to demonstrate that a disputed payment was probably legitimate, and thus an indicator of friendly fraud. "We're adding a set of checks and balances to ensure we are identifying accurate fraud disputes, and providing the necessary information when a trusted cardholder participates in a transaction," Fabara said. Mastercard has also updated its chargeback policies, a 608-page document that covers rules for merchants and banks, exempting nonprofits that do not have excessive chargebacks and adding rules similar to Visa's policy on compelling evidence. Mastercard did not provide comment for this article. The card networks' changes have been live for several months. But it may take time, and some complicated technology work, for the updated chargeback dispute polities to gain adoption at scale. There is enough data to piece together evidence of first-party fraud, Mattei said, adding that merchants have some of this data while issuers have the rest.
FHFA nears target date for final rule on capital framework -The Federal Housing Finance Agency may soon deliver another capital rule update to a mortgage industry that's juggling other ongoing and potential policy changes in this area.The final rule on the Enterprise Regulatory Capital Framework is on track to arrive later this year, according to the agency's latest performance plan for fiscal year 2024, a period that started Oct. 1.The Dec. 31 target date set for that final rule means mortgage companies could face new shifts in how two major government-related mortgage investors, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, price loans for nonbanks and depositories. FHFA officials have emphasized that the framework is closely tied to pricing policies that have both business and political sensitivities, and reiterated that they have sought industry feedback on whether to adjust their proposed changes.Comment letters on pricing have revived debate on whether the agency should consider moving away from risk-based measures and revert to the flat pricing model used prior to the Great Recession. Some housing advocates have sought a reversion. Other commenters disagree.At the same time, bank rules also are undergoing updates, the latest proposed changes to whichcould make it more difficult for depositories to hold some mortgages. However, the bank proposal has a longer-term timeline. "The proposed Basel III implementation has a number of negative consequences for home financing, and contrary to the administration's goals, will depress credit for first-time homebuyers," said Ed DeMarco, president, Housing Policy Council, and a former regulator.The FHFA changes, in contrast, could treat some mortgage assets more leniently.The agency has assigned more leeway to credit-risk transfers under the Biden administration and the current proposal contains a related technical correction. FHFA was more cautious about the capital treatment of CRT during the Trump administration. Some industry groups have also asked for leniency for other types of assets in comment letters.Among the pricing changes the Mortgage Bankers Association has requested for inclusion in the final rule is more of a level playing field for third-party originated loans."At least one of the GSEs is providing worse execution/pricing on TPO loans relative to retail loans solely due to this difference in origination channel, and the disparity in pricing stems from the higher risk multiplier for those loans in the ERCF," the group said in a comment letter.The association also requested an adjustment for multifamily loans that would limit the effect of any drop in value or income to account for normal seasonal variations, only allowing for a full impact to capital if a decline in value goes beyond -35% or an income falloff surpasses -15%. While some mortgage companies will likely have to reconcile the agency's pending update of the capital framework with the Basel III endgame proposal for depositories, others may need to navigate its interactions with a new risk-based capital rule coming to the Ginnie Mae market.
CFPB sues Freedom Mortgage for 'widespread errors' in home loan data -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau filed a federal lawsuit Tuesday against Freedom Mortgage Corp., one of the largest nonbank mortgage lenders, alleging the company submitted data on home loan applicants that was riddled with errors, in violation of the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act.In a 10-page lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida, the CFPB said that Freedom Mortgage violated a 2019 consent order that resulted from revelations that it intentionally misreported data concerning the race, ethnicity, and sex of loan applicants from 2014 to 2017. Freedom, based in Boca Raton, Florida, originated nearly 400,000 loans in 2020, making it the fifth largest mortgage lender in the U.S. by origination volume. The company provided data on more than 700,000 loans and applications."The CFPB is suing Freedom Mortgage for violating a law enforcement order and for providing false data on its mortgage operations," CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a press release. "The CFPB will continue to focus on ending the cycle of misconduct by repeat offenders in the financial industry." Freedom was founded by mortgage industry veteran Stan Middleman, the company's president and CEO, who has been in the crosshairs of the CFPB for several years. In 2019, Freedom Mortgage was fined $1.75 million by the CFPB for misreporting the race, ethnicity or gender of home loan applicants in several hundred incidents, according to the CFPB. The agency now alleges that mortgage loan data submitted by Freedom in 2020 also contained widespread errors across multiple data fields that not only violates HMDA and Regulation C, its implementing regulation, but that the company also violated the 2019 consent order and the Consumer Financial Protection Act of 2010. The CFPB said the 2019 consent order remains in effect through June 2024. "Freedom's violations continued because of pervasive deficiencies in its policies, procedures and systems to collect and report HMDA data and because, despite knowing its systems were faulty, it failed to implement adequate changes to its HMDA compliance management system to ensure the accuracy of its HMDA data," the CFPB said in the lawsuit. "As a result, Freedom has violated HMDA, its implementing Regulation C, the CFPA, and the 2019 Order."
Housing October 9th Weekly Update: Inventory increased 0.4% Week-over-week; Down 4.3% Year-over-year - Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.4% week-over-week.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of October 6th, inventory was at 537 thousand (7-day average), compared to 535 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is up 9.4%. And inventory is up 32.4% from the seasonal bottom 25 weeks ago.The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels.Inventory was down 4.3% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was down 4.7%), and down 43.8% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 43.9%). In 2022, inventory didn't peak until late October, and it appears likely same week inventory will be below 2022 levels for the remainder of the year - depending on when inventory finally peaks this year!It also seems likely that inventory will be close to or above 2020 levels (dark blue line) by the end of the year.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Moody's: Mall Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q3 - Note: I covered apartments and offices in the newsletter: Moody's: "Apartment Market Softens, Office Evolution Continues, and Retail On Shaky Ground" From Moody’s Analytics economists Thomas Lasalvia, Lu Chen and Nick Luettke: Apartment Market Softens, Office Evolution Continues, and Retail On Shaky GroundOver the past decade, traditional retail forms have been challenged by e-commerce’s boom, whose share as a percentage of total retail sales has been constantly hovering above 15% since early 2023. During the sector’s ongoing revolution, retail clusters have been shifting towards service-centric and experience-oriented uses. As non-performing assets get replaced by modernized retail forms or even mixed-use communities, the retail sector ignited a long-awaited hope at the rise of pent-up consumer demand....[N]eighborhood and community shopping centers held steady for another quarter. But over 85,000 sqft of net move-ins fell well under the verified new retail completions, totaling 390,000 sqft over the last three months. August and September leasing activities showed some cracks but it may still be too early to call it systematic. National vacancy stayed flat at 10.3% since early 2023. Asking/effective rents were up slightly by 0.2%/0.3% as compared to last quarter but remained in the $21/$18-per-sqft range, a level relatively unchanged since 2018. This graph shows the strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual). Back in the '80s, there was overbuilding in the mall sector even as the vacancy rate was rising. This was due to the very loose commercial lending that led to the S&L crisis. In the mid-'00s, mall investment picked up as mall builders followed the "roof tops" of the residential boom (more loose lending). This led to the vacancy rate moving higher even before the recession started. Then there was a sharp increase in the vacancy rate during the recession and financial crisis. Effective rents have been mostly unchanged for strip malls for 4+ years.
Consumers buckling for first time in decade: Former Walmart U.S. CEO -- The draw of bargains may be fading. As three of the nation’s biggest retailers kick off a key sales week, former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon warns consumers are starting to buckle for the first time in a decade.He’s blaming a list of headwinds weighing on consumers including inflation, higher interest rates, federal budget wrangling, polarized politics and student loan repayments — and now new global tensions connected to violence in Israel.“That sort of pileup wears on the consumer and makes them wary,” the former Walmart U.S. CEO told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday. “For the first time in a long time, there’s a reason for the consumer to pause.”The timing comes as Amazon begins its two-day Prime Big Deal Days sale on Tuesday. Walmart and Target are trying to compete with their own sales events to get an early jump on the holiday- shopping season.Simon observes the retailers have a glaring thing in common: The bargains are not as deep. ‘You’re not real proud of your price point’“They usually say 50-inch TV [is] $199 or something like that. And now, they say 50-inch TV [is] 40% off,” said Simon. “You use percentages when you’re not real proud of your price point. I think you’ve got inflation pushing the relative price points up.”Shares of Amazon, Walmart and Target are under pressure over the past two months. Target is performing the worst of the three — off 19%.Simon, who sits on the Darden Restaurants and HanesBrands boards, believes Walmart does have a big advantage over its competitors right now.“It’s solely because of the food business,” Simon said. “They’re going to have both the eyeballs and the food traffic to probably have a better Christmas than maybe their competitors.”
PPI September2023: Wholesale inflation rose 0.5% -- A measure of wholesale prices rose more than expected in September, indicating simmering inflation pressures for the U.S. economy. The producer price index, which measures costs for finished goods that producers pay, increased 0.5% for the month, against the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.3% rise, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. That was less than the 0.7% increase in August. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI was up 0.3%, versus the forecast for 0.2%. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index rose 0.2%, in line with the estimate. Markets showed only a mild reaction to the PPI release, with stock futures off slightly and Treasury yields off their lows though still negative on most longer-duration issues. Inflation pressures came primarily from final demand goods, which surged 0.9% on the month, while services increased 0.3%. Much of the goods prices increase came from gasoline, which jumped 5.4%, while food prices posted a 0.9% gain. Energy prices broadly rose 3.3%. Core goods, stripping out food and energy, increased just 0.1%, a reflection of normalized supply chains. On the services side, prices for final demand services less trade, transportation and warehousing rose 0.3%, while final demand trade services costs increased 0.5%. Also in the services category, the costs for deposit services at commercial banks surged 13.9%. On a year-over-year basis, the headline PPI increased 2.2%, the largest move since April. The 12-month pace had slowed to as low as 0.2% in June but has been on the rise since. The report "suggests we haven't seen the end of sticky inflation — and high interest rates," . "Either way, investors will need to remain patient. Lowering inflation significantly from last year's highs was one challenge, getting it down to the Fed's 2% target level is another." Markets look at the PPI as a leading indicator for inflation, as it gauges a wide variety of costs for pipeline goods that feed to consumer products. On Thursday, the Labor Department will release its more closely watched consumer price index, which is expected to show a slight easing in the pace of inflation. Both reports feed into policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, which has been raising interest rates aggressively in an effort to stem inflation. In recent days, central bank officials have indicated that they may not need to enact additional hikes as Treasury yields have risen sharply on their own, tightening financial conditions. That in turn has helped assuage market fears, leading stocks higher this week. The Fed targets 2% annual inflation but doesn't expect to get there for several years. Market pricing indicates the central bank is likely done raising rates in this cycle, even though officials have one more increase penciled in before the end of the year.
BLS: CPI increased 0.4% in September; Core CPI increased 0.3% -- From the BLS:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.6 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase. An increase in the gasoline index was also a major contributor to the all items monthly rise. While the major energy component indexes were mixed in September, the energy index rose 1.5 percent over the month. The food index increased 0.2 percent in September, as it did in the previous two months. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in September, the same increase as in August. Indexes which increased in September include rent, owners' equivalent rent, lodging away from home, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, personal care, and new vehicles. The indexes for used cars and trucks and for apparel were among those that decreased over the month. The all items index increased 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending September, the same increase as the 12 months ending in August. The all items less food and energy index rose 4.1 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 0.5 percent for the 12 months ending September, and the food index increased 3.7 percent over the last year. CPI was slightly above expectations and core CPI was at expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.
CPI September 2023: Consumer prices rose 0.4%, more than expected - Prices that consumers pay for a wide variety of goods and services increased at a slightly faster-than-expected pace in September, keeping inflation in the spotlight for policymakers. The consumer price index, a closely followed inflation gauge, increased 0.4% on the month and 3.7% from a year ago, according to a Labor Department reportThursday. That compared with respective Dow Jones estimates of 0.3% and 3.6%. Headline inflation increased 0.6% in August. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 4.1% on a 12-month basis, both exactly in line with expectations. Policymakers place more weight on the core numbers as they tend to be better predictors of long-term trends. Core inflation also increased 0.3% in August, when it was up 4.3% from the previous 12 months. In keeping with recent trends, shelter costs were the main factor in the inflation increase. The index for shelter, which makes up about one-third of the CPI weighting, accelerated 0.6% for the month and 7.2% from a year ago. On a monthly basis, shelter accounted for more than half the rise in the CPI, the Labor Department said. Energy costs rose 1.5%, including a 2.1% pickup in gasoline prices and 8.5% in fuel oil, and food was up 0.2% for the third month in a row. On a 12-month basis, food costs climbed 3.7%, including a 6% increase for food away from home, while energy costs were off 0.5%. Services prices, considered a key for the longer-run direction for inflation, also posted a 0.6% gain excluding energy services, and were up 5.7% on a 12-month basis. Vehicle prices were mixed, with new vehicles up 0.3% and used down 2.5%. Used vehicle prices, a big driver of inflation in the early days of the Covid pandemic, were down 8% from a year ago. Among the major CPI components, the other main decliners were apparel (-0.8%) and medical care commodities (-0.3%). Medical care services increased 0.3% on the month but were down 2.6% on an annual basis. Markets showed only a modest reaction to the report. Stocks edged higher at the open, while Treasury yields came off previous lows, with longer-duration notes little changed. The CPI increase meant worker wages fell in real terms. Real average hourly earnings dropped 0.2% on the month, owing to the difference between the inflation rate and the 0.2% gain in nominal earnings, the Labor Department said in a separate report. On a yearly basis, earnings were up 0.5%. "Just because the rate of inflation is stable for now doesn't mean its weight isn't increasing every month on family budgets," "That shelter and food costs rose particularly is especially painful." The CPI report comes with Federal Reserve officials contemplating their next policy moves. Minutes from the Fed's September meeting, released Wednesday, reflected divisions within the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. The meeting concluded with the committee opting not to raise interest rates, but the summary showed lingering concern about inflation and worries that upside risks remain. Since then, however, Treasury yields have jumped, at one point hitting 16-year highs. Multiple Fed officials have said that the increases could negate the need for further policy tightening, and markets now are pricing only a small chance that the central bank votes to hike before the end of the year. Market pricing further indicates that the Fed will shave about 0.75 percentage point off its key borrowing rate before the end of 2024. Recent days, though, have brought mixed news on where inflation is heading. The Labor Department said Wednesday that prices at the wholesale level increased 0.5% in September, pushing the 12-month rate to 2.2%, the highest since April and above the Fed's goal of 2% inflation.
Acceleration of Inflation Continues, Core Services Inflation Spikes despite the Massive Health-Insurance Adjustment - By Wolf Richter - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped by 0.40% in September from August, despite the still ongoing ridiculous monthly adjustments to the health insurance CPI that caused it to collapse by 37.3% year-over-year. Today’s CPI release is the last month with that adjustment; with the October CPI, to be released next month, the health insurance CPI will flip, adding further upward momentum to the CPI readings, instead of pushing them down. The health insurance adjustment has caused CPI, core CPI, and core services CPI to be understated to an increasingly significant extent since October 2022, when the monthly health insurance adjustment started, one of the biggest data distortions resulting from the data chaos of the pandemic (more in a moment). Core CPI, month-to-month accelerated to 0.32% in September from August even though it was held down by the collapse of the health insurance CPI: The year-over-year CPI accelerated to 3.70%, the third year-over-year acceleration in a row, after it had accelerated to 3.67% in August, and to 3.18% in July, from 2.97% in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics today (green in the chart below). The year-over-year “Core” CPI, which is designed to track underlying inflation by excluding the volatile food and energy products, rose by 4.1% year-over-year in September, seriously dragged down by the 37% year-over-year plunge in the health insurance CPI due to the odious adjustments that finally ended with September. Fuel prices are rising. After a steep hard plunge in energy prices in the second half last year, the process reversed this year, and in September overall energy prices rose 1.5% from August, and nearly wiped out the year-over-year plunge that had persisted since late last year. On a month-to-month basis, gasoline prices have been surging all year – they jumped 2.1% in September from August and turned positive year-over-year (+3.0%). Gasoline accounts for about half of the total energy CPI. Fuel prices – gasoline, diesel, jet fuel – also make their way into consumer products that are shipped by delivery van, truck, rail, or air as are nearly all consumer products. Jet fuel also makes its way into services via air fares. These products and services are included in core CPI, which is how core CPI reacts indirectly to rising energy costs. The 37% collapse of the health insurance CPI. September (this CPI release!) was the last month of the monthly push-down adjustments to the health insurance CPI, which started with the October CPI last year. For the October CPI, to be released in November, the adjustment will swing (I discussed the gory details here). The adjustment pushed down the health insurance CPI every month on a month-to-month basis by 3.4%-4.3%, which has now caused the year-to-year health insurance CPI to collapse by 37.3%, despite widespread and big price increases of health insurance. A 4% month-to-month plunge, as opposed to a 1% month-to-month rise, as would be the case, represents a month-to-month swing of 5 percentage points! The 37.3% year-over-year collapse, instead of something like a 12% increase, as would be the case, represents a swing of nearly 50 percentage points! The more we narrow down the CPI metrics – overall CPI to core CPI to services CPI to core services CPI – the worse this adjustment distorts the narrowed-down figures. The health insurance CPI as a price index itself (not percent change) in September collapsed to the price level of August 2018, despite big health insurance increases since then. This adjustment has understated “core CPI” and even more so “core services CPI.” Mind-bendingly nuts: Core Services CPI spiked month-to-month, despite collapse of health insurance CPI. The index for core services (without energy services) accelerated to 0.57% in September from August, the biggest increase since February, and the third month in a row of acceleration, despite the odious adjustment to the CPI for health insurance that weighs so heavily in this index. Year-over-year, the core services CPI rose by a still red-hot 5.7%, despite the 37.3% collapse of the health insurance CPI within it, and also due to the base effect related to the surge of the index a year ago: The table shows how hot many price increases in services are. The table is sorted by weight of each service category in the overall CPI. The CPI for medical services is the third largest item, with a weight of 6.3% in overall CPI, and over 10% in the services CPI, and it has been repressed by the collapse of the health insurance CPI within it, and turned negative year-over-year (-2.6%):
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.5% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in September - The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in September. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in September. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 5.5% (down from 5.7% in August), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 4.3% (down from 4.5%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 4.1% (down from 4.3%). Core PCE is for August was up 3.9% YoY, down from 4.2% in July.Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details. "Fuel oil and other fuels" increased at a 76% annualized rate in September, and "Lodging away from home" increased at a 54% annualized rate.
Why you should care about today’s new inflation numbers - Inflation stayed pretty much even in September, with sky-high housing costs putting pressure on consumers. But a steady decrease in “core” inflation — which exempts the more volatile categories of energy and food — is good news for price stability and is likely to assuage the Federal Reserve as it considers more interest rate hikes. The consumer price index (CPI) advanced 0.4 percent in September to rise 3.7 percent above where it was a year ago. That’s slightly higher than what economists were expecting, but it’s down from August’s monthly increase of 0.6 percent and holds the annual increase from last month steady. While the Fed is still projecting one additional quarter-point interest rate hike later this year, markets think the Fed is finished hiking. Interest rate prediction algorithm Fedwatch by financial company CME put the odds of the Fed holding interest rates steady at its current range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent at 89.4 percent, as of Thursday morning. The core CPI, which is a more important measurement than headline CPI for the Fed, has been steadily declining since March. It fell to a 4.1-percent annual increase in September from 4.4 percent in August and 4.7 percent in July. But the core’s three-month average is now trending upward, and that’s concerning some economists. This is the “[second] month in a row of elevated core inflation … following [two] good months. Last month you could tout that the 3-month annualized growth rate was 2.4 percent and inflation was gone. Now that 3-month annualized growth rate is 3.1 percent [and] a bit more reason to be cautious,” Harvard University economist Jason Furman commented online Thursday morning. “We’ll see what happens in the coming months but core CPI firmed up in September,” LinkedIn principal economist Guy Berger commented. “Running at 3.1 percent annualized over the past 3 months, [it’s] still a lot lower than a year earlier. Hopefully [it’s] just a bump in the road.”
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter - Here are a few measures of inflation:The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned earlier when services less rent of shelter was up 7.6% year-over-year. This has fallen sharply and is now up 2.8% YoY.. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through September 2023. Services were up 5.2% YoY as of September 2023, down from 5.4% YoY in August.Services less rent of shelter was up 2.8% YoY in August, down from 3.1% YoY in August.Earlier this year, a key question was: Would services ex-shelter inflation be persistent, or would it follow a similar pattern as goods? This is a topic I discussed in Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part 2. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.Durables were at -2.2% YoY as of September 2023, down from -2.0% YoY in August. Commodities less food and energy commodities were unchanged YoY in September, down from 0.4% YoY in August.Goods inflation was transitory.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through August) and housing from the PCE report (through July 2023) Shelter was up 7.1% year-over-year in September, down from 7.2% in August. Housing (PCE) was up 7.4% YoY in August, down from 7.7% in July. The BLS noted this morning: "The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase." Core CPI ex-shelter was up 1.9% YoY in September, down from 2.3% in August.
Our Experience with the Collapse of the Dollar’s Purchasing Power for Used Cars, Auto Insurance, Repair Costs, Rental Cars - by Wolf Richter -- I’m going to lay out some crazy shocking numbers relating to used car prices, cost of repairs, insurance, and rental cars. This isn’t data, but it’s one incident that illustrates what we’ve discussed here for the past two years, the craziness of what has happened in terms of inflation – and just how far the purchasing power of the dollar has plunged with regards to used vehicles, repair costs, insurance, and rental cars. And the most shocking part is that it isn’t even shocking anymore, it just makes you feel crappy, and we griped and grumbled, but paid, spending money like drunken sailors, as inflation has taken root in its insidious ways, thereby confirming what Powell had said, that consumers “hate inflation, hate it,” and that they’re in a foul mood, but keep spending. Our 2018 Ford Fusion Hybrid, with 75,000 miles on the odometer, got rear-ended. My wife, who was driving it back from work, was not injured. The driver-side airbags deployed. The rear was fairly symmetrically crushed. And the front left corner, which got shoved into the vehicle in front, got bent up, and the headlight assembly was destroyed. We had bought the vehicle from a rental car company in February 2020 with 35,000 miles on it for about $15,000, before used-vehicle prices began to spike in the craziest manner never before even thought possible. The insurance adjuster looked at the vehicle for 10 minutes and totaled it – meaning that he estimated that it would cost at least 80% of the vehicle’s replacement cost to fix it. It was apparently such a clear-cut case that he didn’t even bother to have the vehicle taken to a body shop where the damaged panels could be removed to get a look at the damage underneath, check for damage of the suspension parts, etc. Stunning item #1: The insurance company offered us nearly $18,000 for the vehicle that we’d bought for $15,000 three-and-a-half years and 40,000 miles earlier. Normally, that vehicle might have been worth $10,000. Obviously, this isn’t some kind of collector’s car that might gain value, but a run-of-the-mill former rental car; what changed is the purchasing power of the dollar that, with regards to used vehicles, has essentially collapsed over a three-year period. Stunning item #2: Repair costs, so parts, labor, paint, and supplies. Even a less-than-exhaustive look by the adjuster determined that it would cost at least 80% of nearly $18,000 to fix the vehicle, so at least $14,000 in repair costs. If the suspension parts turned out to be damaged, it would cost more on top of that. No telling what the ultimate repair cost would have been. So bye-bye. An auction company picked it up. It’s common that such vehicles are purchased to be exported to a cheap-labor country, often in Central Asia, to be repaired with cheap but highly skilled labor and cheap parts, and for this then creampuff to be sold for a nice price in one of the Gulf states or elsewhere in that part of the world. This is a big trade, and part of the dynamics behind the thriving used-vehicle exports. Shocking item #3: The cost of the replacement vehicle. The $18,000 would have bought roughly what we had: a 2018 Ford Fusion Hybrid with about 75,000-ish miles on it. There were some for sale in that range. But our sweet spot where we buy is 1-3 years old, with 25,000 to 35,000 miles on it. We found one in that range at a CarMax about 100 miles away, a 2020 Fusion SE Hybrid with 25,000 miles. It was originally a lease return that had been bought by another person and then traded in. The Carfax checked out, everything was fine. The price? Close to $23,000 before title, tax, and license fees, doc fees, etc. We moaned and groaned and bought it. Shocking item #4: The price of the rental. We rented a compact car from Enterprise, for one week, and it was $519. That was more than double last time we’d rented a compact car from Enterprise, which was over Labor Day 2019 for a week from Salt Lake City. Shocking item #5: Auto insurance premium, oh my. Our last two auto renewals – September 2022 and September 2023 – had been a shocker; and when we changed the vehicle to this vehicle, because it was a newer model, another lump was tacked onto the premium, with the effect that our insurance premium went up 50% over the two-year period. It’s not that this insurance has suddenly gotten so much better, but that the purchasing power of the dollar with regards to auto insurance has plunged over those two years. One of the reasons why auto insurance has gotten so much more expensive is the effect I just described here: the collapse of the purchasing power of the dollar with regards to used vehicles and repair costs; instead of paying us about $10,000 for the old vehicle, the insurance company paid us about $18,000; and repair costs have skyrocketed for vehicles that the insurance company pays to have repaired. Shocking item #6: we weren’t really shocked anymore and paid, having expected this, after having been confronted with this mess for a while, and having seen it work its way into everything. Inflation has taken root.
Teslas are now cheaper than the average new gas-powered car - If you’re holding off on buying an EV until your electric dream car is cheaper than a gas-powered car, your wait may be over. The tipping point on price parity has been reached, so you’ll have to find another excuse to stick with fossil fuels.Just look at the trend for the U.S. market leader, Tesla. The company’s most recent price cuts, the latest in a series of reductions this year, have brought the cost of a basic Model Y down to $43,990 before federal and state rebates, taxes and fees. The Model 3 is $38,990, before rebates and charges, according to Tesla’s online ordering portal. Deducting the $7,500 federal rebate, that means the prices are around $36,490 for the Model Y and $31,490 for the Model 3, the latter of which Andrew Krulewitz, founder of EV financing startup Zevvy, called “silly-cheap.” He said that the average price of a new car in the U.S. is about $45,000 right now, and a used car averages a hefty $30,000, “which places the Model Y between the new and used [internal-combustion-engine] average,” even before rebates.Importantly, as of January 2024, the $7,500 federal rebate for a new EV will happen at the time of purchase, regardless of the buyer’s tax liability — not at tax time up to a year later. This opens up the market to low- and moderate-income car buyers and helps advance the Biden administration’s goal of EVs making up half of new car sales by 2030.Tesla offers some of the most affordable (and popular) EVs on the market, but it’s not the only automaker with cheaper-than-average electric vehicles. Several other automakers offer vehicles that start under $45,000, though they’re not all widely available, nor do they all qualify for the federal rebates at this time.
The future of electric vehicles looms over negotiations in the US autoworkers strike . (AP) — On the picket lines at a Ford factory west of Detroit, many striking workers don’t think the electric vehicle revolution is coming for their jobs — at least not in the near future. But just in case, they’re backing United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain’s quest to unionize EV battery factories at Ford and Jeep maker Stellantis, matching a breakthrough concession made by General Motors last week. So far, neither Ford nor Stellantis has agreed to the change, which would pull employees at all 10 U.S. battery factories proposed by Detroit automakers into national contracts with the UAW, all but assuring they’ll be unionized. Fain also wants workers at the plants to make top UAW assembly plant wages, which now are $32 per hour.With the UAW strike now in its fourth week, EVs and their potential impact on job security have become central to union negotiations with the automakers. Contract talks are likely to determine whether those plants — mostly joint ventures with South Korean battery companies — are union, which may have long-lasting consequences as the auto industry transforms itself. “The battery plants are going to be the make-or-break issue,” said Sam Abuelsamid, a mobility analyst for Guidehouse Insights. “It’s going to be a critical factor for them to get good labor agreements at these plants.” In short, if electric vehicles replace gas-powered ones, most UAW workers at engine and transmission plants will lose their jobs. And if lower-paying battery plants aren’t union, workers won’t have anywhere to get the same wages and benefits. Ford and Stellantis thus far don’t want to pay top union wages, fearing that will push up their costs over Tesla and other competitors with nonunion battery plants mainly in the U.S. South. That could make Detroit’s EVs more expensive and harder to sell.
GM agrees to place EV battery manufacturing under UAW agreement - General Motors (GM) has agreed to place battery manufacturing for electric vehicles (EVs) under its main agreement with the United Auto Workers (UAW) union, UAW President Shawn Fain announced on Friday. Fain said the union won’t expand its strike against the Big Three automakers following the the last-minute development in negotiations. “We’ve been told for months that this is impossible,” Fain said. “We’ve been told the EV future must be a race to the bottom. And now we’ve called their bluff.” GM’s commitment to use UAW workers for EV battery manufacturing is a massive victory for the union. Autoworkers have expressed deep concerns about the shift toward EVs given that most are made with non-union labor and outside of the U.S. The UAW was initially prepared to call on members to walk out at one of GM’s “biggest and most important plants” in Arlington, Texas, Fain said. However, after the “transformative win,” he opted not to call for additional strikes. “What this will mean for our membership cannot be understated,” Fain said. “The plan was to draw down engine and transmission plants and permanently replace them with low-wage battery jobs.” “We had a different plan, and our plan is winning at GM,” he continued. “And we expect it to win at Ford and Stellantis as well.”
Why Tesla isn't unionized | CNN Business — Tesla has beaten back previous efforts by workers to unionize – but the United Auto Workers hopes a successful strike against Ford, General Motors and Stellantis could help it organize at Tesla. UAW membership has declined in recent decades, and the auto industry is moving to electric vehicles. EV battery and production plants thus far in the United States are mostly non-union. To grow, the UAW will have to make inroads at EV plants. “Tesla is the biggest threat in the long term to UAW wages and benefits. UAW doesn’t have any choice but to take on [Tesla],” said John Logan, a professor of labor and employment studies at San Francisco State University. Tesla controls around 60% of the electric vehicle market in the United States, and Detroit and foreign automakers in the South are racing to catch up. Tesla workers earn on average about $55 an hour in wages and benefits, compared to $66 to $71 an hour at Detroit’s Big Three, according to industry estimates. Workers have attempted to organize at Tesla at least three different times. But the company, led by Elon Musk, has been difficult for unions to break into because of weak protections for labor organizing in the United States; Tesla’s aggressive tactics; and Tesla’s strategy of granting factory workers stock options, a rarity in the auto industry. “Tesla will go to extraordinary lengths to prevent unions,” Logan said. Tesla did not respond to CNN’s request for comment.
Manufacturing on the Rise? by Menzie Chinn - Here’s a picture of manufacturing activity: employment, hours worked, production, and new orders:Figure 1: Total employment in manufacturing (blue), manufacturing production (black), aggregate hours worked in manufacturing (production and non-supervisory workers) (green), real new orders 3 month centered moving average (red), all in logs 2021M11=0. New orders deflated by core PPI for finished goods. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve via FRED, BLS, Census via FRED. Employment and hours growth might seem pretty anemic given the boom in the economy — but it’s important to remember that trend decline in the two series is 1.2% and 1.4% respectively since 2000.The short term outlook is improving, even though the manufacturing sector is still shrinking, according to the September PMI (reading = 49).
4,000 Mack Trucks workers walk out after rejecting sellout contract backed by UAW President Fain Four thousand Mack Trucks workers in Pennsyvlania, Maryland and Florida launched a strike Monday at 7 a.m. after overwhelmingly voting to reject a tentative agreement backed by the United Auto Workers and UAW President Shawn Fain over the weekend. The UAW announced Sunday evening that its agreement with Mack had been rejected by a margin of 73 percent “no” to 27 percent “yes.” Workers immediately expressed skepticism, saying that opposition to the sellout contract was much higher. The rejection is a rebuke to both Mack Trucks and the UAW apparatus, which conspired behind workers’ backs and sought to push the agreement through to avoid a strike in the critical trucking industry. The agreement at Mack Trucks had been announced mere minutes before the October 1 expiration of the previous 2019-2023 contract as a way of averting a walkout, which would coincide with the strike by 25,000 Big Three autoworkers, now in its fourth week. The UAW had blocked a strike at Mack and announced a last-minute deal despite workers having voted by 98 percent to strike in the event of a contract expiration. “We did it. We spread the word and won,” said a Mack Trucks worker in Macungie, Pennsylvania in response to the rejection vote. The worker noted the company’s effort to dangle a $3,500 signing bonus to coerce financially desperate new hires to accept the agreement had backfired: “We are so happy [the contract] didn’t pass. We finally got around to the new hires to tell them what we were really losing. We did our jobs as UAW 677 members that have been here and know what we deserve!” Expressing the determination to strike, another worker simply stated that the “plan is to shut down the plant.” Seeking to save face, UAW President Shawn Fain hypocritically declared that he was “inspired to see UAW members at Mack holding out for a better deal, and ready to stand up and walk off the job to win it.” The public statement made no reference to the fact that a few days earlier Fain had declared the offer to be “a record contract for the Heavy Truck industry.” Will Lehman, UAW presidential candidate and a rank-and-file socialist worker from Mack Trucks, denounced Fain as a fraud for “acting like he stands with us” after having “tried to ram through a pay cut, sellout tentative agreement on the workers at Mack Trucks.”.
Cuyahoga Heights, Ohio, schools closed for bomb threat — Cuyahoga Heights schools closed Thursday after a phoned bomb threat at the middle and high schools.The call came just as students were entering the buildings on Thursday morning, according to a statement to FOX 8 News from Superintendent Tom Evans.“Students were immediately evacuated and authorities notified. We quickly made the decision to close the school for the day as we were scheduled to have more than 400 visitors on campus,” he wrote.At the time, elementary students were on buses en route to school. Drivers of those buses were told to take those kids back home, according to the statement. The district followed a plan to reunite middle school students with their families. Those who weren’t picked up were bused home.“The building was thoroughly swept by law enforcement and authorities are working to determine the origin of the phone call,” Evans wrote. Friday is a scheduled day off for students, meaning classes will resume at their normal time on Monday. Events set for Thursday evening were rescheduled, including boys and girls soccer games and a fall concert.“We apologize for any inconvenience this may have caused school families,” Evans wrote. “However, the safety of our students and staff is always a top priority in our district.”
Vouchers return this special session — and school funding might be left out. --Texas lawmakers will return to Austin on Monday for their second attempt this year to pass a statewide school voucher program, but whether they’ll seek to give schools additional funding — the other big education issue left pending during this year’s regular session — is up in the air.Gov. Greg Abbott called for a special lawmaking session last month and said Thursday one of its focuses will be education savings accounts — a voucher-like program that would give families state money to pay for their children’s private schooling.“Together, we will chart a brighter future for all Texas children by empowering parents to choose the best education option for their child,” Abbott said in a statement.Abbott’s agenda — which also included immigration issues and COVID-19 restrictions — did not mention public school funding increases or teacher raises, despite dire teacher shortages across the state and clamoring from cash-strapped schools. Lawmakers came close to passing legislation back in May that would have added billions to school funding and given teachers raises, but it got held up amid negotiations over vouchers.Lawmakers are free to file legislation in those areas, but some observers say that Abbott’s agenda is specific enough to keep any new public school funding off the table. The state constitution says lawmakers can only pass bills related to the governor's agenda items during special sessions.“Unless Governor Abbott puts public education funding on the special session call at a future time, the Legislature cannot pass legislation that would affect public school funding,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University.Voucher supporters have long sought to establish such a program in the state. They believe many Texas families might be open to leaving the state’s public education system after voicing disappointment in recent years with how public schools responded to the pandemic and concerns with how they teach children about race, history and sex. Critics say vouchers would siphon money away from already struggling public schools.Reaching a compromise in the Legislature may prove to be difficult once again as Democrats and rural Republicans in the House have historically opposed any form of vouchers. They successfully blocked a voucher program during this year’s regular session, but at the cost of not passing the measure to provide additional funding for schools to pay for teacher raises and combat rising costs due to inflation.
Texas’ special session on school vouchers begins Monday. Can lawmakers reach a deal? - Four months after they failed to reach a deal, Texas lawmakers will return to Austin this week to try a second time to pass a statewide school voucher program.Monday marks the beginning of the state’s third special legislative session of the year. Lawmakers are expected to take up legislation creating an education savings account system, a school voucher-like plan that would give parents taxpayer money to put toward private school tuition or other education-related expenses.But amid growing tensions between the Texas S enate and the House — and overt hostility between the two men who lead them — it’s unclear whether the result will be any different this time around. Education savings accounts are one of four issues lawmakers will discuss during the special session, according to an agenda the governor’s office released Thursday. Lawmakers are also expected to consider measures related to border security, COVID-19 vaccine requirements and Colony Ridge, a Houston-area community that has been the subject of unsubstantiated claims that it’s a magnet for undocumented immigrants. Notably, the agenda doesn’t mention school funding or teacher pay raises, both of which were priorities during the regular session.Gov. Greg Abbott has made a top priority of legislation creating an education savings account plan. Ahead of the regular legislative session, the governor pledged to sign an education savings account program into law, and called on lawmakers to bring a proposal to his desk. During a visit to Fort Worth’s Nolan Catholic High School in April, Abbott argued that the state has a duty to help families who feel trapped in schools that aren’t a good fit for their kids.At the beginning of the year, Abbott also pledged to use a portion of the state’s $32.7 billion budget surplus to boost funding for local school districts, helping them raise teacher pay and keep up with rising operating costs.In the end, neither of those things happened. Lawmakers failed to reach a compromise on school funding and education savings account proposals before the session ended in May. That left local school districts in a difficult position: Many school boards, including several in the Fort Worth area, approved deficit budgets with the expectation that lawmakers would make good on promises to increase school funding. Without that extra money, many districts have had to dip into their emergency savings to cover those costs.
School vouchers and border security to come up in Texas Statehouse - Texas lawmakers will come back to Austin on Monday for what will be the third special legislative session this year. Gov. Greg Abbott announced that the latest special session will focus on school vouchers and the creation of a state deportation force — two highly controversial issues that have failed in previous special and regular sessions. "We will chart a brighter future for all Texas children by empowering parents to choose the best education option for their child," Abbott said in a news release. "Texas will also pass laws to mirror the federal immigration laws President Joe Biden refuses to enforce that will reduce illegal immigration and enhance the safety of Texans." Abbott's wish list of what he wants lawmakers to tackle next week also includes eliminating COVID-19 vaccine mandates, according to the official proclamation. The Legislature's return to Austin comes three weeks after the Texas Senate acquitted Attorney General Ken Paxton of impeachment charges, leading to a stark divide between the Texas House and the Texas Senate. Both chambers will have to work together for any legislation to pass. Abbott followed up on his campaign promise to push — once again — for the implementation of education savings accounts. These accounts would allow families to use taxpayer money to cover the cost of private schooling. The proposal is likely to split the Republican majority in the Texas Legislature. During the regular session, House Republicans voted with Democrats to block the use of public funds for the implementation of a school voucher program. That prohibition was later dropped when the Legislature passed the state budget. Sen. Robert Nichols, R-Jacksonville, who voted against school vouchers in the past, told The Texas Newsroom he remains steadfast in his opposition. "They throw around the term school choice," Nichols said, referring to Republicans who support school vouchers. "Well, you've got a school choice already today. You have the right to take your child to public school, if you don't like that public school and you want to go to the adjacent public school, we already have provisions on the books so you can take your child to the adjacent public school."
School voucher opponents rally outside Texas Capitol - - Governor Greg Abbott is calling on lawmakers to try again to pass school vouchers. Vouchers would allow families to use state funds to pay for their children’s private schooling. Several people came out to rally around the Texas Capitol Saturday, not only to say, “boot vouchers,” but also because, while this is on the governor’s agenda going into the special session, how to better fund public schools and teacher raises were not. “That’s a real slap in the face,” said Representative Donna Howard, D-Austin. “The fact that we will be talking about a voucher scheme, without anything on the agenda to talk about funding our schools, giving our teachers the pay raises is absolutely egregious.” Many, like Howard, came out to let their stance on school vouchers be heard loud and clear. “Our Texas Constitution says that we are to provide free public education to all Texas students and children,” said Howard. “I can’t see any way that that could be interpreted to mean tax dollars going to private schools.” Those against education savings accounts, or school vouchers, say they would help parents put their children in private schools, instead of public schools, taking money away from public schools that are already in need of more funding and more teachers. “What it does is it defunds the public school system, and it degrades the ability for educators to budget for the students and for the personnel,” said Luis De La Garza with the Texas State Teachers Association. Proponents see school vouchers in the state as a positive thing, allowing families to make their own choices when it comes to where their child receives their education. “They know their kids the best, they know what works for them, what doesn’t, and so they have decided to make sure their kids get the best education, whether it’s public or private, and I think every parent in Texas should be able to have that choice,” said Representative Caroline Harris, R-Austin. This will be the second attempt this year for lawmakers to decide whether they should pass a statewide voucher program.
Texas teachers grapple with their raises caught up in voucher fight --When she first began teaching 13 years ago, Katrina Rasmussen, a studio art teacher at Woodrow Wilson High School in the Dallas Independent School District, said her salary was enough to make a living. But between rising inflation and minimal teacher salary raises, Rasmussen and her husband, who is also a public school teacher, now both rely on second jobs to keep their family afloat.Many teachers she knows have begun looking for jobs outside education — and not because they no longer want to be in the classroom, Rasmussen said.“It’s a simple matter of economics for us,” she said. “If we can’t provide for our own families, if we’re struggling to put food on the table and gas in our cars every single month, that wears on us, and the job is already hard.”Texas teachers — whose average salaries are $7,652 less than the national average, according to the National Education Association — were the only state employees who didn’t receive a raise during this year’s regular legislative session.In fact, lawmakers failed to pass legislation on public school administrators’ three biggest priorities during the regular session. Proposals to raise teacher salaries, increase the base amount schools receive per student and overhaul the public school system’s funding formula all fizzled amid a political standoff over school vouchers, which would allow families to use state funds to pay for their kids’ private schooling.Now, as attention swivels to a long-awaited special lawmaking session to tie loose ends in education, it’s unclear whether raises or any other public school funding measures will even be on the table. Public school advocates have worried that teacher raises would be used as a bargaining chip to reach an agreement on school vouchers. But the only education priority Gov. Greg Abbott listed in the agenda for the special session was education savings accounts, a form of school vouchers (other items in the agenda including border security and vaccine mandates).But even if lawmakers find a way to insert raises into the conversation, some teachers say they would rather forgo a salary bump than see school vouchers implemented in Texas. Proponents say a voucher program would give Texans more freedom to choose how to educate their children, but critics worry it would take away funds from the state’s public education system.“If it comes down to it, and it’s vouchers or being able to stay in the job that I care about — unfortunately, I'm gonna have to leave,” Rasmussen said. “That’s not a compromise that I can make values-wise.”
Following latest student walkouts, thousands of teachers and their supporters hold mass rally in Las Vegas, Nevada This past Saturday in downtown Las Vegas, Nevada, well over a thousand teachers and their supporters rallied to demand better pay and staffing levels. Throughout the summer, and into the school year, southern Nevada teachers and students have held multiple demonstrations and sickouts in response to the crisis of public education in Clark County, the fifth-largest school district in the nation. Throughout September, rolling wildcat sickouts forced the closure of multiple schools throughout the district. In the last year, according to the teachers’ union president, nearly 2,000 teachers out of 18,000 have left the district. Saturday’s march and rally was held less than 24 hours after student demonstrations began at Mojave High School and Las Vegas Academy of the Arts in support of teachers. Over 50 students rallied outside Mojave High School on Friday before noon, where they remained until the end of the school day. Fox5 reported students chanted “pay our teachers.” At the Las Vegas Academy of the Arts, 100 students walked out of class at about 1 pm. Students held signs calling for pay raises for teachers and a contract. Some of the signs were homemade, while others were from the Clark County Education Association (CCEA). The CCEA organized Saturday’s rally, which began on Fremont street, a popular tourist destination, and ended in front of the federal courthouse. Featured speakers at the rally included Democratic politicians such as Nicole Cannizzaro, the majority leader of Nevada Senate, and union bureaucrats. Nevada Democratic Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro, October 7, 2023. Seeking to contain the growing movement of students, teachers and parents safely within the confines of bourgeois legality, CCEA President Marie Neisess announced at the end of the rally that the union is preparing to file a lawsuit challenging the 1969 law that makes it illegal for public school teachers, and all public employees, to strike in Nevada. The Nevada Independent, citing a “briefing paper on strikes from the State’s Employee-Management Relations Board,” said that the law was passed “as a way to resolve a walkout by CCSD teachers and came at the urging of Strip casino owners who felt their picketing was disrupting their businesses.”
Harvard students blaming Israel for Hamas attacks draws political backlash --Some of Harvard University’s most prominent political alumni are criticizing the school for not condemning a student-led statement that blamed Israel for the surprise Hamas attack over the weekend.“The silence from Harvard’s leadership, so far, coupled with a vocal and widely reported student groups’ statement blaming Israel solely, has allowed Harvard to appear at best neutral towards acts of terror against the Jewish state of Israel,” Lawrence Summers, a former Harvard president and longtime Washington economic policy hand, wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.Summers, a Democrat who served as Treasury secretary under Bill Clinton, added: “I am sickened. I cannot fathom the Administration’s failure to disassociate the University and condemn this statement.”In their comments, prominent figures who studied at the university — many of them Republicans — blasted the school for not standing up for Israel. The story made the rounds on Sunday and Monday across a plethora of mostly conservative news sites, picking up the attention of Washington figures like Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.)“What the hell is wrong with Harvard?” Cruz, who attended Harvard Law School, wrote Monday on X.Stefanik, the House Republican Conference Chair, wrote Sunday night on X: “It is abhorrent and heinous that Harvard student groups are blaming Israel for Hamas’ barbaric terrorist attacks that have killed over 700 Israelis.” Following much of the backlash, Harvard’s leadership released a statement Monday night that did not directly address the student organizations but instead focused on the school’s commitment to fostering open dialogue.“We have no illusion that Harvard alone can readily bridge the widely different views of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but we are hopeful that, as a community devoted to learning, we can take steps that will draw on our common humanity and shared values in order to modulate rather than amplify the deep-seated divisions and animosities so distressingly evident in the wider world,” the school’s leadership said.The students originally wrote in a Saturday statement that the Hamas-led attack “did not occur in a vacuum” and that Israel was “entirely responsible for all unfolding violence.”“In the coming days, Palestinians will be forced to bear the full brunt of Israel’s violence,” the students wrote.
Student groups pull back on controversial Israel-Hamas statements - College students in the U.S. are facing strong pushback after organizations at multiple schools released statements on the Hamas conflict that appeared to defend the loss of life in Israel. One of the most controversial statements came from Harvard, where a group of more than 30 student-led groups signed a letter saying that Israel was “entirely responsible for all unfolding violence” happening in the region, which has seen at least hundreds killed on both sides after Hamas’s original attack on Saturday. The statement, led by the Harvard Undergraduate Palestine Solidarity Committee, has since removed the names of its signing groups for safety reasons, while at least five of the organizations that originally signed the letter have withdrawn their support. Amnesty International at Harvard, Harvard College Act on a Dream, the Harvard Undergraduate Nepali Student Association, the Harvard Islamic Society and the Harvard Undergraduate Ghungroo have pulled back their original endorsement of the letter, according to The Harvard Crimson. “As a board member of a Harvard group that signed the statement on Israel, I think it was egregious and have resigned from my role. I am sorry for the pain this caused. My organization did not have a formal process and I didn’t even see the statement until we had signed on,” said Danielle Mikaelian on X, the platform formally known as Twitter. Mikaelian added she prevented another student-led group where she was also a board member from signing the letter after she discovered its content. Harvard Undergraduate Ghungroo put out a statement on Instagram “to formally apologize” for its involvement in the letter and to “clarify that we stand in solidarity with both Israeli and Palestinian victims and families.” “Harvard Undergraduate Ghungroo strictly denounces and condemns the massacre propagated by the terrorist organization Hamas,” the statement reads. The letter also saw condemnation from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle for its failure to denounce Hamas’s actions.
Consumer credit posts biggest drop since pandemic as student-loan payments resume - Yet credit-card use rises sharply again The amount of credit consumers used in August recorded the biggest decline since the early stages of the pandemic in 2020, possibly because people began to pay back college loans. Consumer credit shrank by $15.6 billion in August, Federal Reserve data showed. It was the biggest decline since May 2020. Economists had expected a $12 billion increase, according to a Wall Street Journal forecast. All of the decline was in so-called non-revolving credit such as auto and student loans. Outstanding credit in that category sank by $30.3 billion. Student-loan payments and interest to the government had been suspended since the pandemic, but interest began accumulating again in September after the failure of the Biden administration's plan to offer debt relief. The Supreme Court struck down the plan in June. Some student-loan borrowers appear to have started making payments early to avoid extra interest. Revolving credit, like credit cards, increased at a 14% annual rate in August. Americans appear to be relying more on debt to pay for their purchases. They are also using more "buy now and pay later" plans. Credit-card debt recently topped the $1 trillion mark for the first time ever and delinquencies are rising. Other data suggest households are still in relatively good financial shape, however. Auto and student loans, known as non-revolving credit, declined at a 10% pace. That category of credit is much less volatile. The report does not include mortgages, the largest category of household debt. Higher interest rates are making consumers more wary of taking on debt. Mortgage rates have neared 8%, for instance, freezing many people out of the housing market. Yet more Americans are using credit cards for ordinary expenses -- a potential sign of growing financial stress.
Cost of Living Adjustment increases 3.2% in 2024, Contribution Base increased to $168,600 - With the release of the CPI report this morning, we now know the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), and the contribution base for 2024. From Social Security: Social Security Announces 3.2 Percent Benefit Increase for 2024 Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for more than 71 million Americans will increase 3.2 percent in 2024, the Social Security Administration announced today. On average, Social Security retirement benefits will increase by more than $50 per month starting in January....Some other adjustments that take effect in January of each year are based on the increase in average wages. Based on that increase, the maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax (taxable maximum) will increase to $168,600 from $160,200.Currently CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). Here is a discussion from Social Security on the current calculation (3.2% increase) and a list of previous Cost-of-Living Adjustments.The contribution and benefit base will be $168,600 in 2024.The National Average Wage Index increased to $63,795.13 in 2022, up 5.3% from $60,575.07 in 2021 (used to calculate contribution base).
Social Security COLA for 2024 Will Be Meager 3.2%, Likely to Be Outrun by Inflation - by Wolf Richter- The Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security benefits for the calendar year 2024 will be 3.2%, according to today’s release of the inflation data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The COLA is based on the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The Social Security Administration uses the year-over-year CPI-W for July (2.63%), August (3.40%), and September (3.56%) and averages them out to obtain the COLA for Social Security benefits for next year, starting with benefits paid in January 2024. Because COLAs are based on inflation data in Q3 of the prior year, they’re based on past inflation data, to adjust benefits paid out in the future. This means that there are years when inflation surges, and COLAs lag way behind and beneficiaries lose purchasing power; and there are years when inflation cools, and the COLAs are well ahead of inflation, and beneficiaries regain some purchasing power. In 2021 and 2022, when CPI inflation began to rage, COLAs (1.3% and 5.9%) were way behind CPI inflation, and beneficiaries lost purchasing power. In 2023, when inflation cooled, the COLA (8.7%, biggest since 1981) was way ahead of this cooling CPI inflation, and beneficiaries regained purchasing power. For 2024, we’ll have to see if the 3.2% COLA will keep up with CPI inflation in 2024. But it’s likely in this inflationary world that this COLA will be left behind once again. For younger people who are maybe decades from retirement, and who are constantly hearing wild stories about Social Security going “broke” or whatever, and that they’ll never receive the benefits, etc. etc., I’ll just say this: Those are the very same copy-and-paste stories, with only slight edits, that everyone who is now receiving Social Security benefits has heard all their lives. Those stories have become ingrained in American lore. I started hearing those stories when I was in high school, before I really knew what Social Security was. Sure, Social Security gets tweaked every now and then. There were some tweaks during my lifetime, including when I was in my 30s when my full retirement age was moved out. And those adjustments “fixed” the program for decades and created an accumulated surplus of currently $2.7 trillion in the Trust Fund. Social Security comes with spousal benefits and survivor benefits, and it’s worth checking out well before you get even close to retirement age. The most crucial thing to know is that Social Security alone won’t be enough to retire on unless you do a lot of belt-tightening. The benefits it provides are smaller than your peak income was; and CPI-W may not fully capture the increases in actual cost of living that you may experience, which causes the purchasing power of those benefits to decline a little every year, which adds up over the years which can turn into decades. And you may get older than you think. Life expectancy at birth in the US is 74.1 years. But it’s not like you have to turn in your keys when you get to 74.1 years. Over the years, as you get through the events that kill people in their younger years, your life expectancy rises. Someone who is 65 today has an additional average life expectancy of 16.9 years, so about until they’re 82. Someone who is 82 today has an additional life expectancy of 6.8 years, so until they’re about 89. Someone who is 89 today, has an additional life expectancy of 4.0 years, so about 93 years, etc.
Medicina | Free Full-Text | Low Cholesterol Levels in Younger Heart Failure Patients May Predict Unfavorable Outcomes - Abstract: Background and Objectives: Hypercholesterolemia is a main risk-factor leading to ischemic heart disease (IHD). However, among patients with heart failure, the use of lipid lowering drugs in the presence of low cholesterol might be dangerous. This 18-year longitudinal study of patients ≤51 years old investigated the relationship between baseline total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and triglyceride levels, and survival among patients with severe HF. Materials and Methods: The average NYHA score of 82 patients ≤51 years old with heart failure was 2.61. They were followed for a mean of 11.3 years (15 months–20 years). Total mortality was 22%. Patients were divided into three groups. Group 1 had plasma LDL-c levels ≤ 80 mg/dl, Group 2, 80–115 mg/dl and Group 3 > 115 mg/dl. Results: Patients with the highest baseline total cholesterol, triglyceride and LDL-c levels > 115 mg/dl had a better survival rate (83%) compared to those with LDL-c < 80 mg/dl (50% survival, p = 0.043). The association between higher LDL-c levels and lower mortality was most noticeable among patients with heart failure. Conclusion:Longitudinal follow-up found that low LDL-c levels may indicate poorer prognosis among patient with heart failure who are ≤51 years old, similar to elderly heart failure patients. Cholesterol lowering drugs in younger patients with heart failure may increase mortality.
Rise in deaths around retirement age is behind stagnant US life expectancy - Americans' life expectancy has been stagnant for over a decade, and much of the blame has been placed on "deaths of despair" among middle-aged adults. But a new study, published Oct. 9 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggests that chronic disease among older Americans is actually the biggest factor.After a century of steady improvement, Americans' life-expectancy gains nearly ground to a halt starting around 2010.By 2019, average life expectancy for a newborn in the United States was just under 79 years, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease and Prevention. That was barely any different from the outlook in 2010—a striking reversal of previous trends.Since 1900, U.S. life expectancy had grown by nearly three years, on average, each decade. Research into the "why" has often focused on troubling trends among working-age adults: More middle-aged Americans, particularly those with less education, have been dying of drug overdose, alcohol abuse and suicide—what some researchers term deaths of despair.But while that issue captures headlines, another trend has taken shape at the same time.A 2020 study found that stalled progress against cardiovascular disease—including heart attacks and stroke—has actually had a bigger impact on U.S. life expectancy since 2010."We found a slowing decline in [heart-related death rates] that outweighed the increase in drug-related deaths," said researcher Leah Abrams, an assistant professor of community health at Tufts University in Medford, Mass.That, she said, raised the question of what might be going on among Americans of different ages: Older adults suffer heart disease at a higher rate than younger people, so it made sense that deaths among older Americans might have an underappreciated role in the decline in U.S. life expectancy.In the new study, Abrams and her colleagues found just that.Between 2000 and 2009, Americans' average life expectancy at age 25 grew by about 1.4 years for women and 1.7 years for men. From 2010 to 2019, those gains were greatly reduced—to just 0.4 and 0.17 years, respectively. Meanwhile, death rates among 65- to 84-year-old Americans showed a similar pattern—declining at a slower pace between 2010 and 2019, compared to the previous decade.Had that not happened, Abrams and her colleagues estimate, U.S. life expectancy would have kept growing, by about a year.Experts said the findings do not discount the impact of those tragic, preventable deaths of despair.But chronic health conditions like heart disease—long the No. 1 killer of Americans—are simply far more prevalent, Abrams said. So even a slowdown in progress against those ills has a major impact on U.S. life expectancy.
How plant-derived nutrients can affect the gut and brain -- Can plant-derived nutrients alter gut bacteria to affect brain function? Scientists from the University of Leipzig Medical Center, the Max Planck Institute for Human Cognitive and Brain Sciences and the Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research investigated this question in a study of overweight adults.Their findings, published in the journal Gut, suggest that dietary fiber can exert influence on both the composition of gut bacteria and the reward signals in the brain and associated food decision-making.Prebiotics are used to foster the colonization of beneficial bacteria in the gut. These indigestible dietary fibers are found in plant-derived foods such as onions, leeks, artichokes, wheat, bananas, and in high concentrations in chicory root. They support gut health by promoting the growth and activity of beneficial gut bacteria. Researchers have now investigated whether certain prebiotics can also influence brain function by improving communication between the gut microbiome and the brain.The interventional study led by the University of Leipzig Medical Center indicates that consumption of high-dose dietary prebiotics leads to a reduction in reward-related brain activation in response to high-calorie food stimuli. "The results suggest a potential link between gut health and brain function, in this case food decision-making," says PD Dr. Veronica Witte, co-author of the study and a scientist at the University of Leipzig Medical Center.
Women with a disability are more likely to experience child marriage than women without a disability - In 2015, the United Nations created the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to achieve by 2030. With only seven years to go, the world is not on track to meet the goal of eliminating child marriage and other forms of violence against women and girls. Child marriage has been linked with negative reproductive and mental health outcomes.Although there have been some improvements around the world toward the UN goal, progress towards reducing child marriage has been uneven and stagnant, particularly in fragile states where there are high levels of child marriage (being married before the age of 18). The SDGs also call for more data on people living with disabilities. Disability as a determinant of child marriage has been previously under-researched.A new study from George Mason University Ph.D. in Public Health student Samantha Kanselaar has found that women with a disability are more likely to report child marriage compared to women without disabilities. The study assessed the prevalence and associations of disability with girl child marriage and intimate partner violence (IPV) among currently married/cohabiting women (aged 20–24 years) in Pakistan, Mail, Uganda, and Haiti.The paper, titled "Exploring Disability as a Determinant of Girl Child Marriage in Fragile States: A Multicountry Analysis," is published in the Journal of Adolescent Health."These findings are critical given the high rates of child marriage and increasing vulnerability to disability from poverty, conflict, disaster, displacement, and infectious disease outbreaks in fragile states," said Kanselaar, the lead author of the study.Overall, the study found that the prevalence of girl child marriage was 45% and ranged from 35% in Pakistan to 63% in Mali. Women with disabilities were more than one and a half (1.62) times more likely to report girl child marriage compared to women without disabilities. Additionally, women with disabilities and a history of child marriage were 1.78 times more likely to report past year IPV compared to nondisabled women with no history of child marriage.
New California law could force people with mental illness to get treatment -A new California law will expand the state’s ability to force residents who are suffering from severe mental illness and addiction issues to get treatment. Senate Bill 43, signed into law by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) Tuesday, expands the definition of “gravely ill” to include people unable to provide basic needs to themselves due to untreated mental illness or unhealthy substance use disorders. Those individuals will not be eligible for conservatorship, effectively forcing them into mental health treatment. The law is part of efforts to tackle homelessness in the Golden State, with local governments complaining their hands are tied if a person refuses to receive help. However, it has also raised concerns from civil liberties advocates who worry it will allow the state to over-impose its will on individuals. The law, first introduced by state Sen. Susan Talamantes Eggman (D), will update situations “when this intervention can be considered and create the first-ever meaningful transparency into data and equity on mental health conservatorships.” “California is undertaking a major overhaul of our mental health system. The mental health crisis affects us all, and people who need the most help have been too often overlooked,” Newsom said in a statement. “We are working to ensure no one falls through the cracks, and that people get the help they need and the respect they deserve.”California, which is home to more than 171,000 homeless people — or about 30 percent of the total U.S. homeless population — has spent more than $20 billion in the past few years to address the issue, according to The Associated Press. The law updates the Lanterman-Petris-Short (LPS) Act, which was passed in 1967 to end involuntary, indefinite confinement.“The LPS Act was adopted at a time when public policy was essentially to warehouse people that were mentally ill. The Act established strong and important civil liberty protections to ensure individual rights are protected,” Eggman said in a statement. “Like many things that are decades old, it has long been time to make some adjustments to the law to address the realities we are seeing today on our streets.”
They’re back: Cleveland Clinic to return to masking at Ohio hospitals - — Patients at Cleveland Clinic hospitals may soon be seeing a little bit less of their doctors - their faces, that is.The hospital system has requested that caregivers and visitors on inpatient floors of its Ohio hospitals return to masking, beginning next week.“To help limit the spread of viruses and protect ourselves and our most vulnerable patients we are asking caregivers to please mask in inpatient units within our Ohio hospitals beginning Oct. 17 (Tuesday). Visitors and patients are highly encouraged to mask as able,” said the staff email provided to The Plain Dealer. Cleveland.com has reached out to the Clinic for comment. The Cleveland Clinic stopped requiring masks for most patients, visitors and caregivers on April 20 of this year, but they were still required in specialized hospital units caring for particularly vulnerable patients. Masks continued to be strongly encouraged for those with respiratory symptoms or who have been in close contact with someone with COVID-19. Back in April, the Clinic alluded to the fact that the decision to relax its masking policy might only be temporary.“We will continue to adjust our policies to best serve our communities. This may include requiring masking again in the fall, to help limit the spread of influenza and other respiratory viruses among patients and caregivers,” the news release said. Both University Hospitals and MetroHealth say they do not have plans to change their current masking policies at this time.
Frustration grows amid struggle to roll out new RSV, COVID shots for children -- Insurance barriers and distribution challenges are marring the rollout of highly anticipated new shots to protect babies from respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and young kids from COVID-19, drawing anger and frustration from parents and pediatricians. Medical practices don’t know when, or how much, they will get paid for the pricey RSV shot, and they are struggling to find workarounds. For the updated COVID-19 vaccine, parents are finding availability is scattered, despite it being approved nearly a month ago. The vaccines come in different packaging and different dose sizes depending on the brand, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) only recently said it’s OK to mix and match brands for young kids. Some pharmacies also have age cutoffs, meaning a visit to a pediatrician is the only way to get a young child vaccinated. “Every pediatrician in town that I’ve called says, ‘I don’t know, we have some ordered,’ or, ‘We haven’t ordered them at all.’ … It’s been this long chain of phone calls going from place to place to figure out where I’m gonna get my kiddo boosted. And I still have no idea,” The struggles and headaches come as the U.S. enters a fall respiratory virus season with new COVID-19 variants already circulating, and the situation reflects the fact that the federal government is no longer buying and distributing most of the vaccines. That task has instead been left to the private sector and the U.S. health system. This year “should be a respiratory virus season where we have more protection than we’ve ever had,” But instead, “it is like a puzzle that we all have to solve on how to get it not only for ourselves, but also for our children. And those processes don’t often overlap,” Permar said. Pediatricians said Moderna’s single-dose vial reduces potential for waste. Pfizer still relies on three separate doses, and once a vial is punctured, it needs to be used within 12 hours. Pfizer recently announced a new return policy, under which physicians can return either unopened or partially used vials at any time, for the full invoice price. Still, Pfizer is easier to find. The new shot for RSV is causing even more headaches. For years, there have been no drugs that can prevent RSV, a lower respiratory tract disease that’s a leading cause of hospitalization in young children. RSV leads to about 58,000 to 80,000 hospitalizations and 100 to 300 deaths per year in children under 5 years old, most of them infants, according to the CDC. Sanofi’s Beyfortus was approved in August. It’s a monoclonal antibody called nirsevimab, rather than a traditional vaccine, meaning babies will be able to directly receive antibodies to prevent severe RSV disease, rather than prompting the immune system to develop them. It cuts the risk of hospitalizations in infants by about 80 percent and was hailed as a game changer. But the drug costs $495 per dose in the private sector, and according to pediatricians, it’s unclear if insurance companies will reimburse them for buying and administering it. Hospital systems are also struggling to figure out which insurance companies will reimburse for Beyfortus and when the coverage will start. The Affordable Care Act requires insurance companies to cover drugs like Beyfortus for free. But insurers have up to a year to add new products to their plans.
Kids in state with flu vaccine mandate more likely to be vaccinated, study finds - Children in a state with an influenza vaccine mandate during the 2020–2021 flu season were much more likely to be vaccinated than those in non-mandate states, according to a study published today in Pediatrics.A Harvard-led research team analyzed health insurance enrollment and claims data from 71,333 children aged 6 months to 18 years in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. Massachusetts instituted a flu vaccine mandate during the 2020-2021 season.The team also used county-level community COVID-19 case counts from March 2020 to August 2020 to measure area COVID-19 severity. The average child age was 9.7 years, and 45% received flu vaccines in both the 2019–2020 and 2020–2021 flu seasons, 26% weren't vaccinated in either season, and 29% were vaccinated in only one season."Influenza vaccination uptake among children is suboptimal despite the clearly defined benefits of annual vaccination," the study authors wrote. "The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic may have changed vaccination behaviors because of concerns about coronavirus disease 2019 exposure and new mandates for influenza vaccination for children."Previously unvaccinated children in Massachusetts had a higher predicted probability of being vaccinated against flu than those in New Hampshire and Maine (47.7% vs 21.2%, respectively). Previously vaccinated children in Massachusetts were also more likely to receive a flu shot (78.2% vs 58.2%, respectively); the difference was 6.5 percentage points higher among the previously unvaccinated.
Long COVID rare among children: CDC - New data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has shed light on the rate at which long COVID affects children, indicating the condition occurs among only a small minority of them. In a new survey conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), the CDC found that 1.3 percent of children had long COVID in 2022 and 0.5 percent now have it. Long COVID is the condition that manifests following a COVID-19 infection through a wide variety of different symptoms. Reported symptoms include general fatigue, changes in mental health, neurological changes or even organ damage. Lingering post-infection conditions are not exclusive to COVID. U.K. researchers recently found that lingering symptoms can be detected in people recovering from other non-COVID respiratory illnesses. The majority of people who contract infections are believed to recover without developing long COVID, though the exact rate at which it occurs is unclear, as a consensus on what can be considered long COVID has not been widely agreed upon. Some studies have indicated that intervention like vaccination and antiviral use may reduce the chances of someone developing long COVID. In its survey, the NCHS defined long COVID as experiencing “any symptoms lasting 3 months or longer that you did not have prior to having COVID-19.” Girls and older children between the ages of 12 and 17 were more likely to report having had long COVID. Hispanic children were more than twice as likely to say they had long COVID compared with Black and Asian children, with 1.9 percent having experienced the condition at some point. While Asian children have had far fewer instances of experiencing long COVID — 0.2 percent — the CDC noted the differences between white, Black and Hispanic children were not statistically significant.
Not 'little adults': Experts say long COVID undercounted, misdiagnosed in kids --Research on long COVID in children is limited, and reported prevalences range widely, from less than 1% to 70%. And while it's a relatively new condition in an evolving field, experts say it could be better defined and measured through well-designed longitudinal studies that take children's unique presentations into account."I think it's largely because we're trying to apply adult framework to pediatric problems, and as a result, a lot of things are missed," David Putrino, PhD, director of rehabilitation innovation for the Mount Sinai Health System in New York, told CIDRAP News."I think what we need are detailed longitudinal studies where we really take the time to characterize what long COVID looks like in a pediatric population," he said. "That has not been done. What has been done is 'let's treat them just like little adults,' which is always a pitfall in pediatrics."In 2022, a systematic review of 22 studies involving children identified a long-COVID prevalence range of 1.6% to 70%, while a study from Germany from the same year that analyzed long-COVID among 157,000 COVID-19 patients suggested that kids were at the same relative risk as adults (30% vs 33%, respectively).In July 2023, a systematic review of 31 studies published in 2022 involving 15,000 children concluded that 16% of children had persistent symptoms 3 months after infection. Another systematic review from that period found that 1.3% of US children ever had long COVID and that 0.5% currently had it in 2022. Ziyad Al-Aly, MD, chief of research at the VA St. Louis Health Care System, told CIDRAP News that many children likely aren't diagnosed as having long COVID because they don't recognize or have the vocabulary to report their symptoms."Kids don't come home and say, 'Mom, I have postexertional malaise, I have brain fog,'" he said. "What happens is that they start doing poorly in school, and parents find out weeks and weeks later."Hannah Davis, cofounder of the Patient-Led Research Collaborative, a group of long-COVID patients who are also researchers, said recognition can be particularly difficult in younger, preverbal children."Generally, long COVID research in children has been lacking compared with long COVID research in adults," she said. "A very sad thing to me is that I, and the other folks with long COVID as adults, we had this whole life where we understood what it meant to be healthy and active and not have these symptoms, and children don't necessarily, so you see it manifest in different forms."
Long COVID Patients Are Far More Likely to Have Multiple Organ Abnormalities :It wasn't that long ago that some people speculated that long COVID was all in the mind – a psychosomatic illness.Thankfully, that period of speculation is now behind us. We have compelling evidence that long COVID is very real and can affect major organs in people who were previously hospitalised with the disease.I'm the lead investigator on an ongoing study called C-More which looks at the long-term harms caused by COVID. Our latest findings, published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, show that nearly a third of people who were severely ill with COVID have multiple organ abnormalities on MRI five months after they were discharged from hospital.This is based on a sample of 259 people who were hospitalised with COVID and 52 in the control group who did not catch COVID.MRI scans revealed that people with long COVID were 14 times more likely to have lung abnormalities than people who never had the disease, three times more likely to have brain abnormalities and two times more likely to have kidney abnormalities.The extent of MRI abnormalities was linked to the severity of their COVID, their age and whether or not they had other diseases. People with long COVID who had abnormalities involving more than two organs were four times more likely to report "severe" or "very severe" mental and physical impairment.
SARS-CoV-2 infects ocular tissue, but inflammation absent in the eyes of patients who died from COVID-19: Study - Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), infects tissues throughout the human body, including the eye. Now, a recent study has evaluated changes and investigated cellular localization of SARS-CoV-2 in ocular tissues at autopsy. Investigators found a marked absence of inflammation despite evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the eye, contrary to what is observed in other viral eye infections. Theresults appear in The American Journal of Pathology. Ophthalmic manifestations and tissue tropism of SARS-CoV-2 have been reported in association with COVID-19, but the pathology and cellular localization of SARS-CoV-2 have not yet been well characterized. Lead investigator Daniel S. Chertow, MD, MPH, Emerging Pathogens Section, Critical Care Medicine Department, Clinical Center, and Laboratory of Virology, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, explains, "The eye is an immune-privileged site and so may serve as a location for viral infection and persistence. We therefore sought to determine if eye tissues become infected with SARS-CoV-2, and if they do, what damage might be associated with this infection." Investigators evaluated eyes from 25 patients with COVID-19 at autopsy. Sections of ocular tissue from four patients were evaluated by in situ hybridization (ISH) to determine the cellular localization of SARS-CoV-2 spike gene RNA. Contralateral eyes from 21 patients were histopathologically examined. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was found in neuronal cells of the retina, ganglion cells, corneal epithelia, scleral fibroblasts, and oligodendrocytes of the optic nerve in all 21 patients. Common histopathological findings associated with infection included cytoid bodies, vascular changes, and retinal edema. Although SARS-CoV-2 infected many cell types in the eye, there was minimal to no inflammation associated with the infection. Dr. Chertow comments, "In conclusion, a range of common histopathologic alterations were identified within ocular tissue, and SARS-CoV-2 RNA was localized to multiple cell types. What was surprising was the absence of inflammation, contrasting with what we have seen in other viral infections of the eye such as herpesvirus, where infection is typically associated with significant inflammation and tissue damage."
COVID might raise odds for immune disorders like Crohn's, alopecia --COVID might raise odds for immune disorders like crohn's, alopecia In rare cases, some patients may develop an autoimmune disease following a bout of COVID, Korean researchers report. Conditions such as alopecia (hair loss), psoriasis, vitiligo (white skin patches), vasculitis (inflammation of blood vessels), Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, rheumatoid arthritis, adult-onset Still's disease (painful skin rash), Sjogren's syndrome (autoimmune disease), ankylosing spondylitis (spinal arthritis) and sarcoidosis (enlarged lymph nodes) can all be triggered by COVID-19 infection, according to the new report. COVID-19 patients faced 12% to 74% higher odds for various types of alopecia, a tripled risk for vasculitis, 68% higher odds for Crohn's and 59% higher odds for sarcoidosis, the study found. "Our findings highlight a significant association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and the development of autoimmune and auto-inflammatory disorders. This emphasizes the need for a comprehensive medical approach that encompasses both the acute manifestations and potential long-term complications of COVID-19," said lead researcher Dr. Sung Ha Lim, from the department of dermatology at Yonsei University's Wonju College of Medicine in South Korea. "Given the significant global population of COVID-19 survivors, vigilant monitoring for emergent autoimmune diseases is paramount for timely intervention," she added. This study underlines previous findings, said Dr. Marc Siegel, a professor of medicine at NYU Langone Medical Center in New York City. "It is likely because when you defend yourself against COVID, interferons are produced which trigger inflammation, which can then trigger auto-antibodies against the body's organs, muscles or nerves, especially when you have a tendency towards that disease in the first place," Siegel noted.
No increased risk of VTE for COVID-19 patients with IMIDs Having an immune-mediated inflammatory disease (IMID), including inflammatory bowel disease, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and lupus, raises the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE), as does COVID-19 infection.A new retrospective population-based matched cohort studypublished today in JAMA Network Open sought to answer if the risk of VTE increased even further for people with IMIDs during COVID-19 infection by looking at rates of VTE in the 6 months following acute COVID infection in more than 28,000 adults in Ontario with an IMID."The interplay between COVID-19, IMIDs, and VTE remains undefined," the authors said. The study was based on health administrative data from Ontario, which has a publicly funded healthcare program. All individuals with an IMID who tested positive for COVID-19 after January 2020 were randomly matched with up to 5 individuals without IMIDs who tested positive for COVID-19 based on age, sex, income, and rural or urban residence. Only individuals for whom the first diagnostic code for an IMID occurred before COVID-19 diagnosis were included as cases in the study.Participants in the study were followed from the first positive COVID-19 test result until VTE, death, migration out of Ontario, or end of follow-up (March 31, 2022).The most common IMID included in the study was psoriasis (37.8% of cases, or 10,739), followed by rheumatoid arthritis (5,883 cases), and inflammatory bowel disease (4,331).Overall, the authors found no statistically significant difference in risk of VTE among cases and controls in the 6 months following a COVID-19 diagnosis.The incidence of VTE within 6 months of COVID-19 diagnosis among individuals with an IMID was 2.64 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.23 to 3.10) per 100,000 person-days, compared with 2.18 (95% CI, 1.99 to 2.38) per 100,000 person-days among matched individuals without IMID. "While IMIDs and COVID-19 are independently associated with VTEs, we observed no additional risk of VTEs among individuals with IMIDs relative to matched individuals without IMIDs following COVID-19 diagnosis after adjusting for COVID-19 vaccination, history of VTE, and comorbidities," the authors concluded. "In the absence of severe IMID-related inflammation, VTE risk factors, and other comorbid conditions, the IMID itself should not determine the need for VTE prophylaxis."
US data show many COVID patients received antibiotics on admission - A new study by researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that despite a decrease in overall antibiotic use, most US adults hospitalized with COVID-19 continued to receive antibiotics beyond the first year of the pandemic.The findings, published late last week in Open Forum Infectious Diseases, show that antibiotic use in non-critically ill patients with COVID-19 was highest in 2020 and declined thereafter. However, even in 2022, nearly two-thirds of non-critically ill patients were treated with antibiotics, and most of them received an antibiotic as soon as they were admitted to the hospital.Using data from a hospital-based, all-payer database representing roughly 20% of all US hospitals, researchers with the CDC's Division of Healthcare Quality Promotion calculated the monthly proportion of hospital discharges in which patients received at least one antibiotic during their hospital stay, stratified by critical care status, from March 2020 to June 2022. Critically ill patients were defined as those admitted to an intensive care unit or who received invasive mechanical ventilation.Over the study period, 1,142,752 US adults were hospitalized and discharged with a COVID-19 diagnosis at 711 hospitals, and 69.9% received an antibiotic during their hospital stay, with 88.1% receiving an antibiotic on admission. Patients who received antibiotics were more likely to be older, critically ill, have longer hospital stays, and higher in-hospital mortality. Antibiotic use was significantly higher in critically ill patients than non-critically ill patients (903 days of therapy [DOT] per 1,000 patient days [PD] vs 763 DOT/1,000 PD).Among non-critically ill COVID-19 patients, 71.1% received an antibiotic in 2020, 92.3% of which were started on admission. Antibiotic use in non-critically ill patients fell to 61.5% in 2021 and 62.1% in 2022, and median days of therapy also significantly declined, falling by 263 DOT/1,000 PD from 2020 to 2022.But the proportion of COVID-19 patients who received antibiotics on admission did not substantially decline. Among non-critically ill COVID patients who received antibiotics in the hospital in 2021 and 2022, 89.7% and 88.2%, respectively, received them on admission.Ceftriaxone was the most commonly used antibiotic, frequently in combination with azithromycin, which was thought in the early months of the pandemic to potentially lessen COVID-19 severity. Use of both antibiotics declined significantly over the study period, particularly azithromycin, after several studies found it had no effect.But the study authors also note that while National Institutes of Health COVID-19 treatment guidelines say that empiric antibiotics can be administered if bacterial pneumonia is suspected, they observed increases in other antibiotics not recommended as first-line therapy for bacterial pneumonia. Vancomycin, cefepime, and piperacillin-tazobactam were among the antibiotics that saw increases.
US COVID markers trend downward - After a small rise from very low levels over the summer months, US COVID markers last week registered declines, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in itslatest data update. Of the main severity indicators, hospitalizations declined 8.2% from the previous week, and deaths were down 3.8%. Early indicators also fell, with emergency department visits for COVID-19 down 17.7% from the past week and test positivity down 0.8%. The national test positivity rate is at 10.1%, but is a bit lower in the South and Southeast than in the rest of the country.A few counties are reporting high levels of hospitalizations, especially in the Upper Midwest and West. Only 2.5% of deaths nationally were due to COVID, with levels higher in Alabama and Mississippi than in the rest of the nation.In its latest variant proportion estimates today, the CDC said EG.5 is still the main circulating Omicron lineage, but the proportion of HV.1 virus, part of the XBB.1.9.2 lineage, increased from 12.9% to 19.5% over the past 2 weeks. Other top variants include FL.1.5.1, XBB.1.16.6, and HK.3.Wastewater analysis from Biobot, based on data through October 2, shows that detections have leveled off for much of the country over the past 6 weeks, with recent slight increases in the Northeast and West.In its weekly communicable disease update today, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said respiratory illness rates remain elevated, partly due to ongoing COVID activity, in Europe. Transmission is affecting all age-groups, especially those ages 65 and older. Impacts from severe disease are limited, however, with only two countries reporting any rises in hospitalizations or intensive care unit admissions.XBB.1.5 viruses carrying the F456L mutation (a group that includes EG.5) still constitute the main circulating variant, making up 66.2% of samples.
Trudeau regime puts Canadian detective on trial for investigating link between infant deaths and mRNA vaccines -- I am not going to do a deep dive into the science of whether mRNA “vaccines” are safe for pregnant women/infants, but suffice it to say: if I had a pregnant wife, and you tried to forcibly inject her with mRNA, I would fight you to the death.While Covid isn't typically my area of focus, I felt a duty to write this story because it takes place in my hometown of Ottawa, so I reached out to The Dossier because I know that they cover Covid extensively. I am willing to bet that 99% of American readers have not heard of this Canadian case, and it deserves a wider audience.The Canadian media is trash — instead, the most comprehensive coverage of this story has come from an independent journalist, Donald Best, who has written 11 articles about it (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11). Best is a former Detective Sergeant with the Toronto Police who has spent his life investigating organized crime.He's attended all of Helen Gru’s court hearings in person, and shared his notes with me, which I have attempted to summarize and disseminate in a digestible, self-contained format, although in the name of brevitiy I had to cut many good points he made.To most American readers, what you are about to read will be unfathomable; to me, a jaded, bitter, Canadian who has already fled the country for greener pastures, this story is mundane. Sadly, this is just what life is like in Canada now. The crime that Constable Helen Grus—a 20-year veteran detective with the sexual assault and child abuse unit of the Ottawa Police Service (OPS)—her two recent performance reviews in 2019 and 2021 were, “Meets and exceeds expectations; exceeds all expectations”—is accused of, is crazy.This story makes me want to puke. According to the Ottawa Citizen: Grus allegedly accessed case files of newborn and infant death investigations to which she wasn't assigned and inquired with the coroner about whether the parents of babies who had died unexpectedly during the pandemic were vaccinated against COVID-19. Investigators also alleged Grus contacted the father of a deceased baby directly on Jan. 30, 2022, to inquire about the mother’s COVID-19 vaccination status.Yes, you read that right: in Canada, you will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law if you are a detective who “contacted the father of a deceased baby to inquire about the mother’s COVID-19 vaccination status.”During the Covid era, a waiter or grocery store clerk could inquire about a parent's vaccination status, but a detective couldn't.The investigation by Ottawa Police into potential links between mRNA vaccines and Sudden Infant Deaths in pregnant and breastfeeding mothers was halted due to Grus's suspension and subsequent charges.
Study links opioid exposure to colonization with drug-resistant bacteria --A study conducted at two Rhode Island hospitals found that exposure to opioids was associated with a nearly four-fold risk in vancomycin-resistant Enterococci (VRE) colonization, researchers reported this week in theAmerican Journal of Infection Control.The matched case-control study, led by researchers at Brown University, aimed to identify specific non-antimicrobial medications associated with VRE rectal colonization. While antimicrobial exposure is one of the main factors contributing to the emergence and spread of VRE and other multidrug-resistant organisms (MDRO), a recent meta-analysis found that more than 16% of patients who acquired an MDRO had no antimicrobial exposure. Cases and controls were defined as patients with and without VRE rectal colonization at hospital admission, respectively, none of whom had received antimicrobials in the prior 12 months.Among 59,986 admissions to the two hospitals from April 15 to November 12, 2019, 2,919 patients (4.8%) were identified with VRE colonization on admission. Among these patients, 27 were confirmed as having no previous antimicrobial exposure, and they were matched to 63 control patients.Multivariate analysis found that of the 17 different classes of medications patients had been exposed to, opioids (oxycodone) were the only significant and independent risk factor associated with VRE colonization (adjusted odds ratio, 3.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.4 to 10.8)."This is a novel finding as previous studies of factors associated with VRE colonization have not focused on non-antimicrobial medications," the study authors wrote.The authors explain that opioids have been shown to induce gut microbiome dysbiosis, which can reduce microbial diversity and lead to an increased risk of MDRO colonization in the gut. Although more research is needed to elucidate the mechanisms behind the association, they say there may be a need to implement infection prevention strategies aimed at limiting the acquisition and spread of MDROs among opioid users.
Climate or conflict? Legionnaire’s outbreak in Poland raises questions - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - An outbreak of Legionnaire’s disease in the Polish city of Rzeszow this summer raised uncomfortable questions for the Polish government about the source of the sometimes-deadly illness that was spreading through the city’s water. The infection, caused by thelegionella bacterium, isn’t particularly rare; it crops up all over Europe on occasion, but this outbreak came with a startling statistic—two years’ worth of infections and deaths in just a three-week period. And it happened to occur in a curious location: a key hub for the Western effort to aide Ukraine in its defense against Russia.It’s generally a good assumption that disease outbreaks are naturally-occurring and not the result of deliberate attempts to create them. Every year, people get sick from bacterial infections likesalmonella that can be traced back to a source of contamination or from seasonal viral infections like influenza that happen each year at about the same time. But sometimes, a natural origin shouldn’t be taken for granted. A conflict setting would be one such situation.That may be particularly true in the context of a war that has included regular rhetoric about biological weapons. Predictions from across civil society have highlighted the potential for Ukrainian public health and biological research efforts to become targets of Russian disinformation. And from the beginning of Russia’s war on Ukraine, Russian officials and media networks have sought to raiseunfounded suspicions about illicit activities in Ukrainian biological research labs. Russia has taken its accusations to the UN Security Council and other international fora, so far without success, as it seeks to justify its invasion. The United States, deeply involved in supporting Ukraine, has assessed that Russia maintains an offensive biological weapons program and has raised concernsabout whether Moscow might launch an unconventional attack. A city of about 180,000, Rzeszow is no ordinary Polish town. It sits just 60 kilometers from the Ukrainian border and serves as a major international logistics hub for Western military supplies destined for the conflict. It is a temporary home to roughly 1,700 US troops and is also set to host a NATO-built logistics center within the next year. When Legionnaire’s started spreading, misinformation and disinformation about a deliberate attack or who was to blame spread, too. Russia’s state-owned RIA Novosti news outlet claimed the Legionnaire’s outbreak may have been a US false flag operation designed to later accuse Russia of using biological weapons. And stopfake.org, a Ukrainian fact-checking organization, reported that Russian state media and anonymous social media channels have worked to pin the blame for the outbreak on Ukrainian refugees in Poland, which plays an important role as the primary receiving nation for Ukrainian refugees. According to the United Nations Human Rights Commission, about 1 million Ukrainian refugees are in Poland.
Cambodia reports two H5N1 avian flu cases, one fatal --Cambodia has reported two fatal infections linked to H5N1 avian influenza, though it’s not yet known whether the virus belongs to the 2.3.2.1c clade known to circulate in the country’s poultry or if the deaths involve the 2.3.4.4b clade circulating more globally.The health ministry posted a notice yesterday about the first patient, a 50-year-old man from Svay Rieng province, on its Facebook page. The notice was picked up by FluTrackers, an infectious disease news message board, then translated and posted by FluTrackers and Avian Flu Diary (AFD), an infectious disease news blog.The ministry report said more than 50 chickens had died at the man’s house and his neighbor’s house and that the birds were distributed for eating. Health officials are tracking down contacts and issuing public health warnings in the affected area.Today, the ministry posted a notice about a second H5N1 case, which involves a 2-year-old girl from neighboring Prey Veng province who died from her infection, according to a translation posted by AFD. The report said investigators found dead chickens in the girl’s house.The two cases are the fourth to be reported from Cambodia this year. In February, Cambodia reported a fatal H5N1 case in a 11-year-old girl from Prey Veng province, along with a subsequent infection confirmed in her father, who was asymptomatic and was isolated at a hospital.The two cases in February marked Cambodia’s first H5N1 infections since 2014.Genetic sequencing of samples from the patients found that the H5N1 virus belonged to the 2.3.2.1c clade, similar to viruses circulating in southeast Asia since 2014.Since January 2022 and before the two latest cases were reported by Cambodia, 15 sporadic human H5N1 infections have been reported from eight countries, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a recently updated technical report. Some cases were severe or fatal, though some were asymptomatic and are thought to involve environmental contamination rather than true infection.Nearly all the patients had been exposed to sick or dead poultry. Twelve of the cases involved the more recent 2.3.4.4b clade.H5N1 continues to circulate in wild birds, poultry, and some mammals, such as marine animals (eg, seals in South America and in Washington state, fur farms in Finland). The CDC said its risk assessment hasn’t changed and that the overall threat to people remains low.However, it added that close monitoring is needed to identify any changes in the virus that would make it easier to spread to and among people.
Sequencing ties new Cambodia H5N1 avian flu cases to older clade -Following the detection of two recent human H5N1 avian flu infections in Cambodia, genetic sequencing led by scientists at the Pasteur Institute in Phnom Penh revealed that the virus belongs to the 2.3.2.1c clade, similar to viruses that have been circulating in the region over the past decade. Lab scientists announcedtheir findings today on Twitter. Earlier this week, Cambodia reported two human H5N1 cases, including a fatal infection in a 2-year-old girl from Prey Veng province and an illness in a 50-year-old man from neighboring Svay Rieng province. In both instances, poultry deaths were reported near their homes. In February, Cambodia reported two similar H5N1 cases, which also involved the earlier clade. That clade is different than the 2.3.4.4b clade circulating widely in wild birds and poultry, with sporadic spillovers to mammals and humans who had contact with sick poultry or contaminated environments.
Scientists harness CRISPR to make chickens resistant to avian flu - As many countries brace for more highly pathogenic avian flu outbreaks with seasonal bird migration and weather changes, scientists from the United Kingdom today reported that breeding chickens that can resist the viruses—with an assist from CRISPR gene editing technology—holds promise as a tool for fighting the disease.Detailing their findings in Nature Communications, the team bred chickens using gene-editing techniques to alter the ANP32A protein in chicken cells that avian flu viruses use for replication. The scientists hail from the University of Edinburgh, Imperial College London, and the Pirbright Institute.When they exposed gene-edited chickens to a normal dose of H9N2 avian flu, 9 of 10 birds remained healthy, with no spread to other chickens. Then they exposed the gene-edited birds to an artificially high dose of the virus, finding that 5 of 10 became infected, which they said is a much lower rate than in non-modified chickens exposed to the same dose. Gene editing also helped limit the spread to 1 of 4 non-gene-edited chickens in the same incubator, with no transmission to gene-edited birds.The team said the single gene edit of the ANP32A protein isn’t robust enough to apply to poultry production, and they are examining the possibility—using lab-grown chicken cells—of editing two more proteins, which they said would also prevent the emergence of escape viruses.
Syphilis transmission in US higher among transgender women and Black gay and bisexual men, study finds -Transgender women and Black gay and bisexual men in Chicago are nearly twice as likely to contract syphilis at some point in their lives as white gay men, according to a new study conducted by scientists at Northwestern University.The study, "Syphilis prevalence, incidence, and demographic differences in a longitudinal study of young sexual and gender minority adults assigned male at birth," is the first to examine syphilis over time among young sexual and gender minorities—a category that encompasses gay and bisexual men, trans women and non-binary individuals. They found meaningful demographic differences in prevalence, across participants' lifetimes and during the six-month period of the study, leading to a more nuanced understanding of risk factors for the under researched group.The research comes as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention plan to recommend doxy-PEP, a one-time dose of the antibiotic doxycycline, for use after an unprotected sexual encounter, to gay and bisexual men and trans women. The treatment could help curb cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.The study was published today (Oct. 10) in The Journal of Infectious Diseases.Syphilis cases in the U.S. and in Chicago have increased over the past several years, with most new cases occurring among gay and bisexual men. In addition to causing serious health consequences when it is not detected or treated, syphilis is linked to an increased risk of HIV transmission.Rather than studying only gay men, as with many HIV/STI studies in the past, the study also included gender-diverse individuals from groups often overlooked by prospective research."In our sample, transgender populations were the most likely to have a lifetime syphilis diagnosis, but they are rarely included in public health surveillance in a way that allows us to compare to other groups," said Brian Mustanski, the study's lead author and director of the Institute for Sexual and Gender Minority Health and Wellbeing and the Third Coast Center for AIDS Research at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine. "Our findings suggest that preventing and treating syphilis requires outreach to this key population." A quarter of participants had syphilis at some point in their lifetime and the authors estimate every year 6.7% of them will get a new infection. Forty-five percent of transgender participants had lifetime incidences of syphilis in addition to 42% of Black participants.
Non-melanoma skin cancer killing more people than melanoma, new study finds --Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is causing a greater number of global deaths than melanoma, the more serious form of skin cancer, a new study presented at theEuropean Academy of Dermatology and Venerology (EADV) Congress 2023 has found.Researchers also believe that NMSC is underreported and that the true impact of this disease may be even higher than estimated.Professor Thierry Passeron, lead author of the study, explains, "Although NMSC is less likely to be fatal than melanoma skin cancer, its prevalence is strikingly higher. In 2020, NMSC accounted for 78% of all skin cancer cases, resulting in over 63,700 deaths. In contrast, melanoma caused an estimated 57,000 fatalities in the same year. The significantly higher incidence of NMSC has, therefore, led to a more substantial overall impact."Professor Passeron adds, "As alarming as these figures are, they may, in fact, be underestimated. NMSC is often underreported in cancer registries, making it challenging to understand the true burden."In addition to examining the overall burden of skin cancers, the researchers identified specific population groups that were more at risk of this disease, including people who work outside, organ transplant recipients and those who have the skin condition xeroderma pigmentosum (an inherited extreme sun sensitivity condition).The study, which utilized data from the World Health Organization International Agency for Research on Cancer, found a high incidence of skin cancer in fair-skinned and elderly populations from the U.S., Germany, UK, France, Australia and Italy. However, even countries with a high proportion of dark phenotypes were not immune to the risk of death from skin cancer, as demonstrated by the registered 11,281 deaths in Africa.In 2020, there were nearly 1.2 million reported cases of NMSC worldwide compared with 324,635 cases of melanoma. The majority of skin cancer occurrences are non-melanoma, referring to a group of cancers that slowly develop in the upper layers of the skin, with common types including basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma. In comparison with melanoma, a type of skin cancer that develops in the melanocytes (cells that produce melanin), NMSC is less likely to spread to other parts of the body and can be treated more easily.
Exploring Dengue Fever: What You Should Know As Dengue Cases Surface In Florida - Orlando Medical News - Recent developments in Florida have brought a notable increase in dengue fever cases, raising concerns about this mosquito-borne disease. According to the Florida Department of Health, there have been eleven confirmed cases, with Broward County accounting for two and Miami-Dade reporting nine. It's worth highlighting that, while dengue fever typically originates from regions beyond Florida, a locally acquired case was reported in Miami-Dade just last week. This emphasizes the importance of comprehending this viral ailment. Dengue fever, often colloquially referred to as "break-bone fever" due to the severe pain it induces, is transmitted to humans through mosquito bites. While some individuals may not display any symptoms, others might experience a mild illness that usually resolves within 1 to 2 weeks. Unfortunately, for certain cases, the infection can progress to severe dengue, a grave condition that may necessitate hospitalization. Roughly 25% of those infected with the dengue virus exhibit symptoms that can vary from mild to severe. Around 5% of the affected individuals may develop severe dengue, which can lead to shock, internal bleeding, and even fatality. The most prevalent symptom is fever, frequently accompanied by:
- Nausea and vomiting
- Skin rash
- Body aches and pains, including pain behind the eyes
Symptoms typically manifest within 4 to 10 days after infection and persist for a duration of 2 to 7 days, in accordance with guidance from the World Health Organization (WHO). Apart from these typical symptoms, there are warning signs that might signal severe dengue:
- Abdominal pain and tenderness
- Frequent vomiting (at least three times in 24 hours)
- Bleeding from the nose or gums
- Vomiting blood or discovering blood in stool
- Feelings of extreme fatigue, restlessness, or irritability
If you or a family member encounter these warning signs, it's crucial to seek immediate medical attention at a local clinic or emergency room. These symptoms usually emerge within 24 to 48 hours after the onset of fever, as advised by the CDC.
Breakbone fever: Dengue will soon pose a "major threat" to US, the WHO says - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - Thanks to global warming, the last eight years have been the hottest on record. Now, along with wildfire smoke and stronger storms, climate change may soon deliver to parts of the world yet another unwelcome gift: dengue, a disease so unpleasant to experience that its nickname is breakbone fever.Higher global temperatures promise to make dengue a major threat in the southern United States, southern Europe and new areas of Africa within this decade, World Health Organization (WHO) Chief Scientist Jeremy Farrar told Reuters. “We need to really prepare countries for how they will deal with the additional pressure that will come … in the future in many, many big cities,” the wire service reported Friday.A disease carried by Aedes aegypti mosquitos, dengue causes an estimated 100 million to 400 million infections a year, according to the WHO. In recent decades, the disease has been characterized as a “neglected tropical disease,” a problem for people in lower-income countries. But the geography of dengue could quickly shift, and experts have been increasingly voicing concern over how climate change might affect dengue’s spread, and that of other diseases, as well.In July, WHO official Raman Velayudhan told reporters that global warming and other factors, including the sanitary conditions of growing urban areas, can benefit the mosquitos that carry dengue. Half the world’s population is now at risk, Velayudhan said then. Dengue can cause high fevers and result in, as the name breakbone fever implies, severe muscle, bone, and joint pain. The disease is often asymptomatic and most people recover in about a week,according to the Mayo Clinic. Some patients, however, progress to the worst form of the disease: life-threatening dengue hemorrhagic fever, which can involve shock, internal bleeding, and organ failure, first manifesting in symptoms such as bloody gums, stool, and vomit.Among the countries bearing the brunt of dengue is Bangladesh, where recent government data showed that so far this year more than 1,000 people have died from the disease, a record-breaking figure. Climatic factors appear to be making the country more suitable for dengue-susceptible mosquitos, the WHO reported in August: “Bangladesh’s climate conditions are becoming more favorable for the transmission of dengue and other vector-borne diseases, including malaria and chikungunya virus, due to excessive rainfall, waterlogging, flooding, rise in temperature, and the unusual shifts in the country’s traditional seasons.”
Painful Dengue May ‘Take Off’ In United States—What To Know About The ‘Breakbone Fever’ Virus -- The World Health Organization’s chief scientist Jeremy Farrar has warned dengue fever could soon “take off” and become a constant presence in the United States, one of many emerging health threats driven by the climate crisis as rising temperatures make new parts of the world hospitable to vectors of disease. Dengue—often called “breakbone fever” on account of the excruciating pain it can cause—is caused by a virus spread through the bites of infected female mosquitoes, primarilythe invasive Aedes aegypti.Dengue is common in warmer climates where the mosquitoes that spread it thrive, including parts of South America, South Asia and the Philippines.There are four related viruses that cause dengue and around 400 million people are infected every year, though experts believe this number is likely much higher as most people will not have any symptoms.Around a quarter of people with dengue will get sick and experience flu-like symptoms such as fever, headache, rash, aches and pains and vomiting that typically begin a few days after infection and last a week or two.Dengue can become a medical emergency within a matter of hours, however, with around 1 in 20 of infected people who get sick developing serious symptoms like severe pain, shock and internal bleeding that can lead to death, and around 40,000 die from severe dengue each year.There is no specific medicine to treat dengue and the focusin most cases is on treating pain and providing supportive care, with severe dengue often requiring hospitalization.
Powassan virus: First travel-related death from rare tick-borne virus recorded in Maryland, health official says --The first travel-related death from a rare tick-borne virus has been recorded in Maryland after an individual contracted it in Canada.The presence of Powassan virus in an individual who traveled to Maryland was confirmed by the department on September 22. Powassan is an illness spread by the bite of an infected tick, according to a Friday news release from the state’s department of health. “Powassan is very rare, and this is the first-ever case recorded in Maryland. The individual contracted the virus in Canada and returned to Maryland afterward.”Kalyanaraman said health officials do not believe there is a threat of local transmission of Powassan in Maryland but urge everyone “to practice good habits when in areas that could have ticks or avoid those areas altogether.” A resident of Gardiner, New York, became the first death in that state in August, CNN previously reported.The Powassan virus is spread to people by the bite of an infected tick, and although still rare, reported cases of people sick with the virus have increased in recent years, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.The virus is not “transmitted from person to person, except in rare instances by blood transfusion,” according to the CDC.The virus can cause fever, headache, vomiting, loss of coordination and memory and speech problems, however, it often does not present with any symptoms, the CDC said. It can also cause encephalitis and meningitis.In 2022, states reported 44 cases of Powassan virus disease to the CDC. Seven people died. So far in 2023, 28 cases have been reported to the CDC.Most cases occur in the northeast and Great Lakes regions from late spring through mid-fall when ticks are most active, the CDC said. There are no vaccines to prevent the virus or medicines to treat it, according to the CDC.
What if we bring back life from Mars? - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (video) NASA’s Mars Sample Return Mission is a decade long project to bring back rocks and dust samples from Mars to Earth. The mission itself will be the most complicated robotic space mission ever undertaken, and bringing the samples back to Earth is only part of the challenge. Once on Earth, the samples will need to be treated as if they contain life-threatening pathogens. The samples will be stored in a maximum containment lab being built near the landing site in the Utah desert.In a new report for the Bulletin, Valerie Brown writes about the challenges of the mission and how it fits into NASA’s history of space exploration and sample collection. So for our latest video, we decided to animate the journey from Mars to Earth to help illustrate the challenge and danger ahead. Check it out, and consider subscribing to our channel on YouTube too.
Teen Brains at Risk: Common Herbicides Linked to Cognitive Dip - Herbicides are the most used class of pesticides worldwide, with uses in agriculture, homes and industry. Exposures to two of the most popular herbicides were associated with worse brain function among adolescents, according to a study led by researchers at the Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science at University of California San Diego. In the Oct. 11, 2023 online issue of Environmental Health Perspectives, the researchers reported measuring metabolite concentrations of two commonly used herbicides — glyphosate and 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) — and the insect repellent DEET in urine samples collected in 2016 from 519 adolescents, aged 11 to 17, living in the agricultural county of Pedro Moncayo, Ecuador.Researchers also assessed neurobehavioral performance in five areas: attention and inhibitory control, memory and learning, language, visuospatial processing, and social perception.“Many chronic diseases and mental health disorders in adolescents and young adults have increased over the last two decades worldwide, and exposure to neurotoxic contaminants in the environment could explain a part of this increase,” said senior author Jose Ricardo Suarez, M.D., Ph.D., M.P.H., associate professor in the Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health. Among the findings:
- Glyphosate, a nonselective herbicide used in many crops, including corn and soy, and for vegetation control in residential settings, was detected in 98 percent of participants.
- 2,4-D, a broadleaf herbicide used on lawns, aquatic sites, and agricultural crops, was detected in 66 percent of participants.
- Higher amounts of 2,4-D in urine were associated with lower neurobehavioral performance in the domains of attention and inhibitory control, memory and learning, and language.
- Glyphosate concentration in urine was associated with lower scores in social perception only, while DEET metabolites were not associated with neurobehavioral performance.
US agency refuses to examine toxicity of ‘inactive’ pesticide chemicals to crops -- Ingredients labeled as “inactive” in pesticide formulas are potentially poisoning the environment, crops and animals, but the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has rebuffed calls to examine their toxicity and risks.Agency rules do not require the EPA to account for inactive ingredients when it evaluates pesticide formula safety, despite the fact that industry labels dangerous substances like per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) as inert.A 2017 Center for Food Safety (CFS) legal petition asked the EPA to close the loophole, but the agency denied the request this week. Many of the 18,000 pesticides approved for use by the EPA will likely remain more toxic than anyone knows, said Bill Freese, the science director at CFS.“The idea that we’re not assessing the actual chemicals that farmers spray is kind of ridiculous,” Freese said.CFS, along with several other organizations, filed the petition when the agency was under the direction of Donald Trump-appointee Scott Pruitt. The EPA effectively ignored the petition, CFS said, until the groups sued the agency to force it to respond.The groups argued that inactive ingredients are added to pesticides to improve their performance by making them more toxic to the organisms they target. But that can also make a pesticide formula more toxic to the wildlife, humans and plants that are not targeted.“People sometimes don’t make the jump from ‘more effective at killing the pest’, which sounds like a good thing, to ‘more toxic for everyone else’ which is what ‘more effective’ means,” Freese said. “What about people, butterflies or anything other than [pests like] corn rootworm?”In its response, the EPA claimed too many pesticide formulas exist for the agency to check them all for safety. It also said the formula changes once a pesticide is sprayed and dispersed, so an evaluation of the entire product in its packaging would be misleading.Inactive ingredients are usually added as surfactants or penetrating agents that help disperse the active ingredients or make them more absorbable. About 4,000 inert ingredients are approved for use by the EPA, along with 1,000 active ingredients, and industry is not required to publicly disclose its formulas because they are considered trade secrets.Among dangerous “inert” ingredients public health advocates know are added to pesticide formulas are PFAS, a chemical class of which many are extremely toxic at low doses. Another, polyethoxylated tallow amine (POEA), can harm or kill amphibians at very low exposure levels.While it is dangerous on its own, POEA is also added to Roundup, a widely used and controversial pesticide. Roundup’s active ingredient is glyphosate, which is considered a probable carcinogen, and POEA helps plants absorb glyphosate. But Freese noted that glyphosate is not as carcinogenic without the addition of POEA, and some researchers suspect the ingredients synergise to make the product more toxic.Research also shows that POEA helps human skin absorb the chemical, but the chemical is still not considered when the EPA assesses Roundup’s toxicity, Freese said.
FDA bans sales of popular Vuse menthol, fruit flavored e-cigarettes - The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Thursday banned the sale of Vuse Alto menthol and fruit-flavored electronic cigarettes as part of its larger crackdown on vaping products marketed at young people. Vuse, made by R.J. Reynolds Vapor Co., is the most commonly sold e-cigarette brand in the country, the FDA said, and it has become increasingly popular among kids. Vuse Alto is the most popular sub-brand. The agency took action against three menthol-flavored and three mixed-berry-flavored products, with each flavor being offered in three nicotine strengths. The company must not market or distribute the products in the U.S., but they can submit a new regulatory application. The FDA said Reynolds failed to show evidence that keeping its products on the market would be appropriate for the protection of public health. Specifically, the company didn’t demonstrate that the benefits to adults from the menthol and mixed-berry-flavored products outweighed the known risks to youth. According to federal data in the 2022 National Youth Tobacco Survey, Vuse was the second most common brand of e-cigarettes among children and teens who said they had vaped in the past 30 days. The order came following the FDA’s review of Reynolds’s application to sell products in the U.S. The FDA has not yet said whether it would allow Vuse Alto’s tobacco flavors to remain on the market. Reynold’s parent company, British American Tobacco, said in a statement it would immediately challenge the agency’s Marketing Denial Orders and seek a stay of enforcement. “This decision flies in the face of proven science and is contrary to the FDA’s stated goal of reducing the health effects of tobacco use,”
Climate cesspool: Extreme rain is turning homes into havens for toxic mold - Wilma Price was sleeping in her basement bedroom in 2021 when she woke up to a cacophony of noise, including an alarm coming from her sump pump, a device meant to prevent basement flooding. As she sat up in bed she saw her freezer and its contents floating by on several inches of water. The bedroom of her home in Detroit’s Jefferson Chalmers neighborhood was quickly flooding with water coming in from the toilet and shower. After a few days the water receded, but black mold — a toxic fungus — developed. As fossil fuel pollution traps heat, flooding is intensifying and disasters are becoming more frequent and more intense. The floods are wreaking financial damages, and they’re exacerbating health hazards as flooded streets and basements foster mold and release pathogens from raw sewage. In Rust Belt cities like Detroit with combined sewer and rainwater systems, untreated sewage can back up into streets and homes when pipes become overwhelmed with stormwater. Price paid thousands of dollars to eradicate the mold by ripping out the floors, several feet of her walls, and all of her new bathroom fixtures. Sometime this spring, Price found black mold crawling up about a foot of the wall. Then she found it in a second room on the opposite side of the house. Extreme rainfall events like Detroit’s historic flood in 2021 are growing more common because of climate change. Peter Larson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Michigan and one of the lead authors on a 2021 study, published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, found more than half of almost 4,000 Detroit homes surveyed had experienced recurrent flooding between 2012 and 2020. Among the Detroit homes included in the study, 84 percent that had flooded in the past were found to have mold in the basement. An additional 55.4 percent of homes that had not flooded during those years still had moldy basements — underscoring the fact that more frequent, climate-induced rainfall can pose problems even for homes that haven’t flooded, because with more rain comes more moisture. Detroit received more than 25,000 calls on June 25, 2021, when six to eight inches of rain washed across the city over two days, leading to disaster declarations in four Detroit-area counties and 67,000 damage claims with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. About 24,000 damage claims were also filed with the regional water authority in Metro Detroit, all of which were denied because water officials deemed widespread basement flooding to be inevitable. “The last flood was the worst of them all. It was devastating,” “We are all very clearly in a depressing situation around this time of year — you should typically be able to enjoy the sun, but summer rain is becoming violent for us.” “What you have is a situation where residents are facing just an enormous amount of potential challenges because of this,” said Lyke Thompson, director of Wayne State University’s Center for Urban Studies and a mold researcher. “A number of older and younger adults in that neighborhood already have asthma, and we have found from a larger study … an association between flooding and asthma occurrence in Detroit. “The mold was the major thing that was still there months after [the 2021 flood]. And we still are going into homes and finding mold in that neighborhood,” he said.
Renting rather than owning a private sector home linked to faster 'biological aging' -- Renting a private sector home, falling repeatedly into arrears, and exposure to pollution in the vicinity are linked to faster biological aging—the cumulative damage to the body's tissues and cells, irrespective of actual age—indicates research published online in theJournal of Epidemiology & Community Health.The biological impact of renting, as opposed to owner occupancy, is nearly double that of being out of work vs. having paid employment, the findings suggest.Fortunately, these effects are reversible, emphasizing the importance of housing policy inhealth improvement, say the researchers.Numerous aspects of housing are associated with physical and mental health, including cold, mold, crowding, injury hazards, stress, and stigma. But exactly how they might exert their effects isn't entirely clear, say the researchers.To explore this further, they drew on epigenetic information alongside social survey data and signs of biological aging, captured through evidence of DNA methylation in blood samples.Epigenetics describes how behaviors and environmental factors can cause changes that alter the way genes work, while DNA methylation is a chemical modification of DNA that can alter gene expression.They used data from the representative UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS, usually referred to as Understanding Society) and survey responses from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), which also became part of Understanding Society.They mined the information available in the UKHLS on material elements of housing: tenure; building type; government financial support available to renters; presence of central heating as a proxy for adequate warmth; location in an urban or rural area. Psychosocial elements were also included: housing costs; payment arrears; overcrowding; and moving expectations and preferences.Additional health information was subsequently collected from the 1,420 BHPS survey respondents, and blood samples taken for DNA methylation analysis. Information on historical housing circumstances was gleaned by pooling the responses from the past 10 years of the BHPS survey for each respondent.
Living in privately rented homes linked to faster biological ageing, study finds - Living in a privately rented home is linked to more rapid biological ageing, according to researchers who tested DNA and found the tenure is associated with twice the ageing effect of obesity and half that of smoking.The peer-reviewed study of 1,420 UK householders found housing circumstances can “get under the skin” with significant consequences for health, said academics at the University of Essex and the University of Adelaide . Their findings were published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. Falling repeatedly into arrears and exposure to pollution were also linked to faster biological ageing – the cumulative damage to the body’s tissues and cells, irrespective of actual age.The study tracked a process called methylation in people who are part of the ongoing UK Household Longitudinal Survey. Methylation is regarded as a fundamental mechanism that drives human ageing. About 5m households live in privately rented accommodation in the UK – a a figure that has doubled in the last 20 years. Costs are higher, conditions are worse and tenure is more precarious than in owner-occupied housing or socially rented housing. The study concluded: “Our finding that tenure is associated with faster ageing at nearly half the rate of that associated with current smoking and twice that with obesity suggests that our results may have clinical significance. “Policies to reduce the stress and uncertainty associated with private renting, such as ending no-fault evictions, limiting rent increases and improving conditions, may go some way to reducing the negative impacts.” The impact of renting in the private sector, as opposed to outright ownership, was almost double that of being out of work rather than being employed. As an observational study, the research was not able to determine what is causing the link between housing tenure and biological ageing, and the DNA samples analysed so far were only from white, European householders. Private renters typically live in worse conditions that other householders, with greater problems such as cold, damp and disrepair. The English Housing Survey estimated that in 2021, 23% of private rented homes did not meet the Decent Home Standard, compared with 13% of owner-occupied and 10% of social-rented homes.
At least 1,000 birds died from colliding with one Chicago building in one day - At least 1,000 birds died from colliding into a single building in Chicago on Thursday, 5 October, as they migrated south to their wintering grounds. Volunteers are still recovering bird carcasses within 1.5 miles of McCormick Place, the largest convention center in North America, which is largely covered with glass.“It’s the tip of an iceberg but it’s it’s a huge, huge amount of birds we found both dead and injured,” said Annette Prince, director of Chicago Bird Collision Monitors, adding that this was the highest number of bird strikes that the group recorded from the grounds of one building in a single day.From late Wednesday, 4 October, through early Thursday, 5 October, a peak estimate of 1.5 million birds were in the air over Cook county, home to the Chicago metropolitan area. Carcasses of Tennessee warblers, hermit thrush,American woodcocks and other varieties of songbirds were recovered.“Not every bird that hits the window is going to leave behind a body,” said Brendon Samuels, who researches bird window collisions at the University of Western Ontario.He noted that the true extent of affected birds will unravel over a couple of days as people continue to pick up birds around downtown Chicago.“In fact, we often see birds collide with glass and they continue flying some distance away, seriously injured in ways that ultimately they won’t survive past a few hours,” Samuels added. Birds dying in large numbers in a small geographic area tends to occur during peak migration periods in spring and fall. Weather conditions like opposing wind, rain and fog can make it difficult for birds to orientate themselves, in addition to light pollution from cities that can draw them in and trap them among deadly structures. “Anywhere you’ve got glass, you’re gonna have birds hitting the windows,” said Bryan Lenz at the American Bird Conservancy. Annually, up to a billionbirds die due to collisions, and in the case of Chicago, the dead and injured birds were most likely flying from Canada en route to South and Central America.Of all cities in the US, Chicago’s light pollution poses the greatest risk for migrating birds. Turning off building lights is one way to reduce fatalities. A 2021 study done in McCormick Place, the same site of Thursday’s bird deaths, found that shutting off half the lights in large buildings can reduce collisions by six to 11 times. McCormick Place is a participant of the Lights Out Chicagoprogram, which has buildings voluntarily switch off or dim lights at night unless someone is inside.“It is important to understand that there is an event going on at Lakeside Center [part of McCormick Place] this week, so, therefore, the lights have been on when occupied. Once the space is unoccupied, the lights have been turned off,” said a representative from McCormick Place.
Ground News - Microplastics detected in clouds hanging atop two Japanese mountains
- Plastic pollution in the form of microplastics has been found in clouds surrounding Mount Fuji and Mount Oyama in Japan, indicating that the pollution can spread long distances and contribute to climate change and ecological risks.
- The concentration of microplastics in the clouds is high enough to cause cloud formation and release greenhouse gases, highlighting the potential environmental damage caused by plastic air pollution.
- The presence of microplastics in clouds raises concerns about the widespread accumulation of these particles across the globe, with an estimated 10 million tons ending up in the oceans annually.
Microplastics detected in clouds hanging atop two Japanese mountains - Microplastics have been found everywhere from the oceans’ depths to the Antarctic ice, and now new research has detected it in an alarming new location – clouds hanging atop two Japanese mountains. The clouds around Japan’s Mount Fuji and Mount Oyama contain concerning levels of the tiny plastic bits, and highlight how the pollution can be spread long distances, contaminating the planet’s crops and water via “plastic rainfall”. The plastic was so concentrated in the samples researchers collected that it is thought to be causing clouds to form while giving off greenhouse gasses. “If the issue of ‘plastic air pollution’ is not addressed proactively, climate change and ecological risks may become a reality, causing irreversible and serious environmental damage in the future,” the study’s lead author, Hiroshi Okochi, a professor at Waseda University, said in a statement. The peer-reviewed paper was published in Environmental Chemistry Letters, and the authors believe it is the first to check clouds for microplastics. The pollution is made up of plastic particles smaller than five millimeters that are released from larger pieces of plastic during degradation. They are also intentionally added to some products, or discharged in industrial effluent. Tires are thought to be among the main sources, as are plastic beads used in personal care products. Recent research has found them to be widely accumulating across the globe – as much as 10m tons are estimated to end up in the oceans annually. Humans and animals ingest or inhale large amounts of microplastics, which have been detected in human lungs, brains, hearts, blood, placentas, and feces. Their toxicity is still being studied, but new research that exposed mice to microplastic points to health issues, like behavioral changes, and other studies have found links to cancer and irritable bowel syndrome. Waseda researchers gathered samples at altitudes ranging between 1,300-3,776 meters, which revealed nine types of polymers, like polyurethane, and one type of rubber. The cloud’s mist contained about 6.7 to 13.9 pieces of microplastics per litre, and among them was a large volume of “water loving” plastic bits, which suggests the pollution “plays a key role in rapid cloud formation, which may eventually affect the overall climate”, the authors wrote in a press release. That is potentially a problem because microplastics degrade much faster when exposed to ultraviolet light in the upper atmosphere, and give off greenhouse gasses as they do. A high concentration of these microplastics in clouds in sensitive polar regions could throw off the ecological balance, the authors wrote. The findings highlight how microplastics are highly mobile and can travel long distances through the air and environment. Previous research has found the material in rain, and the study’s authors say the main source of airborne plastics may be seaspray, or aerosols, that are released when waves crash or ocean bubbles burst. Dust kicked up by cars on roads is another potential source, the authors wrote.
Lawmakers to local authorities: Don’t enforce federal land policies - A legislative committee will draft a measure to prohibit state and local authorities from aiding or cooperating with federal land management agencies “when they pursue policies which harm Wyoming’s core interests.” The move is in response to the U.S. Bureau of Land Management’s draft plan for managing 3.6 million acres of federal land in southwest Wyoming.The Select Federal Natural Resource Management Committee also voted unanimously to draft a bill creating a new full-time position in the governor’s office to act as a watchdog “protecting the state’s interest against federal overreach.” Lawmakers on the panel suggested recruiting current and former BLM employees for the position with a signing bonus. They also discussed offering “bonuses and or opportunities for promotion” for state employees who go “above and beyond in protecting the state’s interests” against perceived federal overreach.After hearing several hours of testimony on Friday regarding the BLM’s draft resource management plan revision for the Rock Springs field office the committee determined it poses an existential threat to the state’s economy and outdoor culture. The draft proposal’s preferred alternative — “alternative B” — would expand “no surface occupancy” designations for industrial activities to protect wildlife habitat and cultural resources, and increase the acreage that’s off-limits to new rights-of-way for things like maintained roads, power lines and pipelines by 481%. Public discussion of the RMP has been rife withmisinformation, much of it coming from or amplified by elected officials. Widespread restrictions on recreation, for example, have elicited significant public outrage despite the plan largelyleaving recreational access untouched, according to the agency.Regardless of assurances from BLM officials that alternative planning scenarios are still in play during the draft comment period, committee members heard pleas from local officials to safeguard against potential federal actions even prior to the agency implementing a plan. That included testimony from Sweetwater County Sheriff John Grossnickle. “The [BLM’s planning] process and its plan reflect nothing less than a continued effort of the current administration to weaponize executive privilege and rulemaking authority to circumvent the democratic process to impose a political agenda that bypasses voters and the will of our people,” Grossnickle said. “Because of this, if the restrictions of the preferred alternative of the Rock Springs RMP are set in place, the Sweetwater County Sheriff’s Office will take a hard stance [regarding] cooperative law enforcement with the Bureau of Land Management. In particular, the Sweetwater County Sheriff’s Office will not cooperate with or assist the BLM with enforcement action regarding the Rock Springs RMP.” Committee members agreed the state should mirror the Sweetwater County Sheriff’s Office’s stance and extend a statewide prohibition on enforcing federal land management agency policies, including those of the U.S. Forest Service. The committee’s other draft bill creating a federal land management watchdog position is needed to ensure “continuity from one governor’s administration to the next” regarding potential federal overreach and ongoing negotiations between state, local and federal officials, co-chairman Sen. Brian Boner (R-Douglas) said. The measure would also include “an incentive program for state employees who go above and beyond in protecting the state’s interests and are offered bonuses and, or, opportunities for promotion,” Boner said. The bill draft will also include language “offering signing bonuses for current federal land management agency employees who would rather work for the state,” he added. The committee also agreed to submit a letter to the BLM asking that the draft plan be withdrawn and if it is not withdrawn that the public comment period be extended by 120 days. Currently, the deadline to submit comments on the draft EIS is Nov. 16. The committee will again consider the measures when it meets Nov. 13 in Cheyenne.
Tropical Storm “Max” hits Guerrero; Lidia to intensify into hurricane before Mexico landfall - Tropical Storm “Max” formed at 03:00 UTC on October 9, 2023, and made landfall 15 hours later just west of Puerto Vicente Guerrero, Mexico, with winds of 105 km/h (65 mph). Originating south of Central America, the storm intensified rapidly, bringing with it a threat of heavy rainfall and potential mudslides. Max is closely followed by Lidia, currently an intensifying tropical storm, which is expected to make landfall over west-central Mexico as a hurricane. Forming initially as a trough of low pressure south of Central America on October 3, the system saw associated showers and thunderstorms that increased in organization over the subsequent days. As the disturbance approached Acapulco by October 7, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing advisories, labeling it Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E. The system’s development into a well-defined circulation by the next day led to its reclassification as a tropical depression. By 03:00 UTC on October 9, the once mild disturbance had intensified into a tropical storm and was named Max, becoming the 13th named storm of the 2023 Pacific hurricane season. Tracking slowly to the north, its organization and strength saw a noticeable uptick. Making its landfall at 18:00 UTC, just west of Puerto Vicente Guerrero, the storm came with sustained winds of 65 mph (105 km/h) and recorded a minimum central pressure of 991 hPa (29.26 inHg). Further observations at 18:00 UTC on the same day located Tropical Storm Max’s center roughly 50 km (30 miles) southeast of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The storm boasted maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h (60 mph) and gusts reaching up to 110 km/h (70 mph). The system was moving in a north-northeast direction at a speed of 7 km/h (5 mph), with a barometric pressure reading of 996 hPa. A mere three hours later, at 21:00 UTC, Max’s center was located approximately 65 km (40 miles) from Zihuatanejo. Its sustained winds remained at 95 km/h (60 mph), but its direction shifted to the west, moving at a speed of 11 km/h (7 mph) and registering a pressure of 995 hPa. Local authorities have issued a Tropical Storm Warning, spanning from Acapulco to Lazaro Cardenas. Tropical-storm-force winds are extending up to 95 km (60 miles) from its core. Forecasts predict Max will result in rainfall ranging between 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 inches), peaking at local amounts of up to 300 mm (12 inches) through October 10. Such heavy rainfall across Guerrero and Michoacan heightens concerns for flash and urban flooding, with a significant risk of mudslides in elevated coastal terrains. Additionally, Max’s swells are predicted to impact Mexico’s southern coastlines over the next couple of days. These waves bring with them the potential for life-threatening surf conditions and dangerous rip currents. Max is closely followed by Tropical Storm “Lidia” — located about 605 km (340 miles) SW of Las Islas Marias, Mexico at 21:00 UTC today. The system had maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h (70 mph), it was moving ENE at 13 km/h (8 mph) and had minimum central pressure of 985 hPa. A faster ENE motion is expected this evening and on Tuesday, October 10. The center of Lidia should approach Las Islas Marias on Tuesday, and move inland over west-central Mexico late Tuesday or Tuesday night. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias, and Playa Perula to Escuinapa. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Escuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya, and Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of where the center of Lidia moves over the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico.
Hurricane Lidia strengthens into major hurricane as it approaches Puerto Vallarta along Mexico's Pacific coast - Hurricane Lidia is expected to make landfall along the Pacific Coast of Mexico on Tuesday night as a major hurricane, potentially threatening a stretch of the west-central shoreline home to Puerto Vallarta, a resort town and popular tourist destination in the Mexican state of Jalisco. Its expected arrival comes on the heels of Tropical Storm Max, which hit the southern coast of Mexico on Monday, several hundred miles from Jalisco, before tapering off.Forecasts developed in the hours leading up to Lidia's expected arrival placed the storm system about 115 miles southwest of Puerto Vallarta at 3 p.m. Central Time, roughly 50 miles closer to shore than it had been three hours earlier, according to the National Hurricane Center. Lidia was packing maximum sustained winds of 125 miles per hour, with higher gusts, classifying it as a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, which rates potential property damage.Lidia had become more powerful over the course of the day, growing in strength since 9 a.m. CT when it carried maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and at the time was categorized as a Category 2 hurricane. A storm falls within Category 2 when its maximum sustained winds are stronger than 96 mph but do not exceed 110 mph, and shifts to Category 3 when wind speeds are between 111 mph and 129 mph. Any hurricane classified as a Category 3 storm or above — the system ranks storms through Category 5 — is considered a major hurricane.But Lidia was forecast to potentially strengthen even further as it approached Mexico's west-central shoreline, threatening to bring with it dangerous hurricane-force winds, rain and flooding that could begin as early as Tuesday afternoon, the hurricane center said in an advisory. When the storm makes landfall in the evening, it could reach the coast as an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 hurricane. Meteorologists forecast Lidia will begin to rapidly weaken as it moves inland, but the hurricane is also expected to bring as much as 12 inches of rain to parts of the Mexican states of Nayarit, Sinaloa and coastal Jalisco, likely causing flash flooding and urban flooding as well as possible mudslides in sections of the coast with higher terrain. "Apart from the strong winds, Lidia can produce a lot of rain," Albert Martinez, a meteorologist at The Weather Channel en Español, told CBS News in an email. "This big amount of rain can produce flash floods along Sierra Madre with some mudslides in higher terrains. It's important to avoid creeks and rivers because they can grow very quickly." Hurricane-force winds extend up to 30 miles from the center of the storm, and tropical storm-force winds can extend up to 125 miles, Martinez added, so a wide stretch of land between Nayarit and Colima "will experience a lot of rain, floods and strong winds."
Hurricane Lidia Makes Landfall As A Category 4 In Mexico - Hurricane Lidia has made landfall as a Category 4 in west-central Mexico after rapidly intensifying on Tuesday. Lidia quickly strengthened into a major Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday afternoon as it closed in on landfall. Just 24 hours earlier on Monday afternoon it was a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. The center of Lidia made landfall with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph at 8 p.m. EDT (6 p.m. MDT) about 35 miles south-southwest of the resort town Puerto Vallarta. Puerto Vallarta and other nearby areas will be hit with the brunt of the hurricane's impacts through Tuesday night. Lidia will quickly weaken, then dissipate on Wednesday as it moves farther inland. Damaging winds, storm surge and pounding surf will affect the coast of Mexico near where the center of Lidia tracks inland. A hurricane warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias and from Manzanillo to El Roblito. Hurricane conditions are expected within this area through Tuesday night.
‘Extremely dangerous’ Hurricane Lidia crashes into Mexico’s Pacific coast | Weather News | Al Jazeera -- Hurricane Lidia has crashed into Mexico’s Pacific coast as an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm, killing at least one person as residents sought shelter from torrential rain and powerful winds. Lidia made landfall near the popular beach resort of Puerto Vallarta, with maximum sustained winds of about 220km per hour (140 miles per hour) the United States National Hurricane Center (NHC) said on Tuesday.“Life-threatening winds and flooding rainfall spreading inland over west-central Mexico,” the NHC said in a bulletin. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said the government had deployed about 6,000 members of the armed forces to help residents. “You must take refuge in safe places – stay away from low areas, streams, rivers and hillsides,” he wrote on social media. Authorities in the state of Nayarit said one man was killed when a tree fell on the van he was driving north of Puerto Vallarta. In the town, residents boarded up windows and dragged sacks of sand from the beach to reinforce flood barriers in front of their shops. Authorities at the airport said it would be closed until 8am (14:00 GMT) on Wednesday. School classes were suspended, businesses closed early and most residents waited out the storm at home or in shelters opened by the authorities, according to reporters from the AFP news agency. Social media videos showed heavy rain as far as the inland city of Guadalajara. Some people reported fallen trees blocking roads and rivers threatening to burst their banks. Lidia was expected to bring rainfall of up to 30cm (12 inches) to Nayarit, Sinaloa and Jalisco states, the NHC said. “These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast,” it warned. “A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves,” the NHC added.
Hurricane Lidia, a Category 2 Storm, Moves Inland in Mexico, Killing 1 - Hurricane Lidia remained deadly even as it was downgraded to a Category 2 storm on Tuesday evening, killing at least one person as it moved inland from the west coast of Mexico and spreading life-threatening winds and heavy rains that could cause flooding and mudslides, forecasters warned.Lidia was about 30 miles east of the resort town of Puerto Vallarta, in the state of Jalisco, at 8 p.m., hours after it made landfall nearby as an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 hurricane. Its sustained winds reached 105 miles per hour, with stronger gusts, according to the National Hurricane Center.Officials in the neighboring state of Nayarit said that one man had died in the town of Punta Mita after strong winds made a tree fall on the pickup truck that he was driving.Schools were suspended on Wednesday in 23 municipalities in Jalisco, the state’s Education Ministry said. The state opened 23temporary shelters, said the governor, Enrique Alfaro. In Nayarit, military and national guards, aircraft and land vehicles were deployed for rescues. Officials were also carefully watching water levels at rivers, including Rio Ameca, one of Mexico’s largest and deepest. Lidia has disrupted tourism in resorts on the Pacific coastline. It forced businesses to close in Puerto Vallarta, where beaches were vacated, tourists sheltered in their hotels, the airport shut down and hospitals braced for an influx of patients. Residents living near rivers, streams or mountainous areas were asked to go to the government-run shelters, said a spokeswoman for Jalisco’s state government, Susana Rodríguez Mejía. “We can’t go and control nature, but what we can do is protect ourselves,” Jesús Guillermo Carmona Jiménez, the president of the Hotel and Motel Association of Bahía de Banderas, said in an interview. He said that travelers at Vallarta Gardens, a hotel in the beachside city, had been offered free food and accommodation during the storm. Puerto Vallarta was last hit by Hurricane Nora in August 2021, which caused the Cuale River to overflow, destroying a bridge and killing at least three people. A hurricane warning was in effect for the Pacific Coast of west-central Mexico from Manzanillo to San Blas, a tropical storm warning from Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo. Warnings were discontinued for other areas in Mexico.Lidia is expected to produce four to eight inches of rain — and in some areas up to 12 inches — through Wednesday across the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco, the Hurricane Center said.These rains are likely to produce flash and urban flooding, and mudslides are possible in areas of higher terrain near the coast. A “dangerous storm surge” is expected to cause significant coastal flooding, forecasters said.“The rains will continue in the next 12 hours, they will intensify,” Areas inland on the west coast of Mexico have mountainous terrain, meaning that a lot of rain there can lead to mudslides, washouts and other flooding issues, he said.Swells from Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Hurricane Lidia dissipates after killing 1 person, injuring 2 near Mexico's Puerto Vallarta resort — Lidia dissipated Wednesday after hitting land as a Category 4 hurricane near the resort of Puerta Vallarta, where one person was killed by a falling tree and two others were injured. The hurricane knocked over trees and blew roofs off houses with winds as high as 140 mph before moving inland. Laura Velázquez, the head of Mexico's civil defense system, said one person died on the northern outskirts of Puerto Vallarta after being hit by a falling tree, and two others were injured elsewhere in the area. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Tuesday that Lidia’s winds were down to 35 mph as it dissipated about 145 miles north-northeast of the city of Guadalajara, Mexico’s second-largest city and the capital of the western state of Jalisco. Lidia made landfall on a sparsely populated peninsula and then moved inland south of Puerto Vallarta, still with winds of 105 mph. Victor Hugo Romo, the head of the Jalisco state civil defense office, said several homes around the landfall area had their roofs blown off, and the Puerto Vallarta city government said about a dozen trees had been knocked down there. Trees were also downed in the neighboring state of Nayarit. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Lidia's eye appeared to have reached land near Las Penitas, near Cabo Corrientes, a sparsely populated peninsula. Lidia remained a powerful hurricane even after moving over land, with some highways briefly blocked in the region. The state had 23 shelters open, he said. The Puerto Vallarta city government said a few dozen people had gone to shelters there. In 2015, Hurricane Patricia, a Category 5 hurricane, also made landfall on the same sparsely-populated stretch of coastline between the resort of Puerto Vallarta and the major port of Manzanillo. Local authorities canceled classes in communities around the coast. The expected impact came one day after Tropical Storm Max hit the southern Pacific coast, hundreds of miles away, and then dissipated. Rains from Max washed out part of a coastal highway in the southern state of Guerrero.
Floods hit Bago city in Myanmar after record-breaking October rainfall - 14 000 people living in Myanmar’s Bago city were forced to evacuate their homes over the weekend after record-breaking rains hit the region, causing severe flooding. Floodwaters in Bago city, northeast of Yangon, reached waist-deep levels, compelling residents to wade down streets or use boats and rubber tires as makeshift modes of transportation. State broadcaster MRTV confirmed that 14 000 people have been displaced across the Bago region, with 5 600 individuals currently accommodated in government temporary relief centers. On Sunday, October 8, 2023, authorities recorded 200 mm (7.9 inches) of rain within 24 hours, marking it as the new daily record for October rainfall. Heavy rainfall persisted through Monday night. The disruptions caused by the flooding also affected essential services. Reports indicate that the lower floors of Bago’s general hospital are submerged, making medical care challenging to access. Additionally, communication has become a significant hurdle as three of Myanmar’s four telecom providers are currently non-operational in the affected areas. Phwar Than Hme, a 101-year-old resident, described her traumatic experience, stating that this was the first time her house had ever been flooded. She was carried to a monastery for shelter by neighbors and rescue personnel. “I have never seen anything like this.” The floods were not localized to just Bago but have impacted nine of Myanmar’s states and regions, including Rakhine, Kachin, Karen, Mon, and Chin.
Dam burst triggers fatal landslide in Yaounde, killing at least 30, Cameroon - (aftermath video) Heavy rains and a subsequent dam burst led to a devastating landslide in Cameroon’s capital Yaounde on October 8, 2023. At least 30 people were killed in the disaster that occurred in the impoverished Mbankolo district. The tragedy unfolded on the evening of October 8, 2023 (local time), when a dam near an artificial lake burst due to torrential rains, triggering a landslide in the Mbankolo district. Daouda Ousmanou, a local administrative official, said, “The water swept away everything in its path.” The collapse of the hillside led to the destruction of approximately 30 houses made from wood, dried earth bricks, and metal sheeting. Images broadcast on public television depicted the torrential aftermath with rivers of water and mud flowing through the night. Cyprien Djou, a local town hall official, pointed out the failure of a containment wall built by Germans. “The lake completely overflowed onto the homes built on the hillside,” he stated. Rescue operations were promptly initiated. “We immediately began looking for victims. The rescuers already found us at the site,” Djou added. Commander Bomba Etoundi of the fire service confirmed that 30 people lost their lives and another 17 sustained injuries. Rescue teams are still actively searching for victims in the Mbankolo district, which is home to a population of 3 million and is one of the highest areas in Yaounde. Civil protection organizations had issued warnings about the high risk of landslides in the Mbankolo district for several years prior to this event.
'We Knew This Was Coming': Deadly Himalayan Dam Burst Was Predicted by Scientists --Authorities raised the death toll to 42 on Friday after a glacial lake overwhelmed a dam in the Indian Himalayas earlier this week, in one of the worst disasters in the area in nearly half a century. The dam breach on Wednesday, which was caused in part by extreme rainfall, had long been predicted by scientists and environmental advocates due both to the climate crisis and inadequate regulations. "We knew that this was coming," Gyatso Lepcha, general secretary of local environmental group Affected Citizens of Teesta, said in a statement reported by The Associated Press. The flooding occurred in India's Sikkim state after South Llonak Lake overflowed and breached the state's largest dam, AP reported further. "Floodwaters have caused havoc in four districts of the state, sweeping away people, roads, bridges," Indian Army spokesperson Himanshu Tiwari toldAFP. The floodwaters destroyed 15 bridges, according to Reuters, and damaged or flattened more than 270 homes, AP reported. State official Tseten Bhutia said that around 2,400 people had been rescued and 7,600 were living in emergency settlements, according to Reuters. Overall, the Sikkim government said that the disaster impacted a total of 22,000 people. "It was already predicted in 2021 that this lake would breach and impact the dam." "We got calls from people that river levels could rise at 3 am and we ran for our lives," 44-year-old Javed Ahmed Ansari, a Teesta valley river-rafting business owner, toldReuters. "We ran towards the hill in the jungle... We saw houses getting swept away. I can now only see the first floor of our house which is filled with sand, everything is submerged." Officials said Friday that at least 42 people had died and 142 were still missing. After the flood, satellite photos revealed the lake had diminished by two-thirds, according to reporting by CBS and AFP. The immediate cause of the flooding may be a combination of both a burst of extreme rainfall and a 6.2 magnitude earthquake in neighboring Nepal on Tuesday, according to AP. However, it is exactly the kind of disaster that scientists have warned about as the climate crisis melts Himalayan glaciers, swelling the waters of glacial lakes. South Llonak Lake had been growing faster than any other lake in Sikkim, scientistswarned in a 2021 study."It was already predicted in 2021 that this lake would breach and impact the dam," Indian Institute of Technology, Indore, glaciologist Farooq Azam toldCBS News. "There has been a substantial increase in the number of glacial lakes as the glaciers are melting due to global warming."In general, mountain regions are melting twice as fast as the global average due primarily to the burning of fossil fuels. A study published in June found that the Hindu Kush Himalayas could lose 80% of their ice by 2100 if countries don't rapidly phase out oil, gas, and coal. In addition to triggering glacial floods, this would threaten the drinking water source relied on by 2 billion people.
Hydro Dams Are Struggling To Handle the World’s Intensifying Weather - IT’S BEEN ONE of the wettest years in California since records began. From October 2022 to March 2023, the state was blasted by 31 atmospheric rivers—colossal bands of water vapor that form above the Pacific and become firehoses when they reach the West Coast. What surprised climate scientists wasn’t the number of storms, but their strength and rat-a-tat frequency. The downpours shocked a water system that had just experienced the driest three years in recorded state history, causing floods, mass evacuations, and at least 22 deaths.Swinging between wet and dry extremes is typical for California, but last winter’s rain, potentially intensified by climate change, was almost unmanageable. Add to that the arrival of El Niño, and more extreme weather looks likely for the state. This is going to make life very difficult for the dam operators tasked with capturing and controlling much of the state’s water.Like most of the world’s 58,700 large dams, those in California were built for yesterday’s more stable climate patterns. But as climate change taxes the world’s water systems—affecting rainfall, snowmelt, and evaporation—it’s getting tough to predict how much water gets to a dam, and when. Dams are increasingly either water-starved, unable to maintain supplies of power and water for their communities, or overwhelmed and forced to release more water than desired—risking flooding downstream.But at one major dam in Northern California, operators have been demonstrating how to not just weather these erratic and intense storms, but capitalize on them. Management crews at New Bullards Bar, built in 1970, entered last winter armed with new forecasting tools that gave unprecedented insight into the size and strength of the coming storms—allowing them to strategize how to handle the rain. First, they let the rains refill their reservoir, a typical move after a long drought. Then, as more storms formed at sea, they made the tough choice to release some of this precious hoard through their hydropower turbines, confident that more rain was coming. “I felt a little nervous at first,” says John James, director of resource planning at Yuba Water Agency in northern California. Fresh showers soon validated the move. New Bullards Bar ended winter with plumped water supplies, a 150 percent boost in power generation, and a clean safety record. The strategy offers a glimpse of how better forecasting can allow hydropower to adapt to the climate age. Modeling studies have long suggested that better weather forecasts would be invaluable for dam managers. Now this is being confirmed in real life. New Bullards Bar is one of a half-dozen pilot sites teaming up with the US Army Corps of Engineers to test how cutting-edge forecasting can be used to optimize operations in the real world. Early tests of the methods, called forecast-informed reservoir operations, have given operators the confidence to hold 5-20 percent reserve margins beyond their reservoirs’ typical capacity, says Cary Talbot, who heads the initiative for the Army Corps.To Talbot, FIRO could mean a paradigm shift in how the Corps and others run dams. Historically, dam operators under the Army Corps umbrella had to ignore weather forecasts and respond only to rain and snow that was already on the ground. This rule traces back to the notorious capriciousness of traditional forecasts: If an operator takes a bad gamble on a forecasted weather event, the results can be dangerous. But in practice, this forces operators to react later than their gut tells them to, says Riley Post, a University of Iowa researcher who spent over a decade as a hydraulic engineer for the Corps. They might, for example, be expected to hold water in a nearly full reservoir even as heavy rains approach.Recent developments, however, have sharpened the trustworthiness of forecasts, particularly for atmospheric rivers on the West Coast. Leaps in computing power have enabled ever-more-muscular climate and weather modeling. To pump these models with data, scientists led by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography have since 2016 launched reconnaissance flights over atmospheric rivers of interest, where they release dozens of dropsondes, sensor packs shaped like Pringles cans. The result is a detailed profile of a storm’s strength, size, and intentions, which can then feed into FIRO.These reports aren’t clairvoyant; all weather forecasts involve a measure of uncertainty. But a dam operator with increased confidence in when, where, and how much water will strike their watershed can take a more “surgical” approach to holding or releasing water, Post says.And if they know how much time they have, they can also make the most of their existing water.
California Natural Gas Utility PG&E Facing $45M in Penalties for ’21 Dixie Fire - California regulators have proposed fining Pacific Gas and Electric Co. (PG&E) $45 million for damages related to the Dixie Fire, the state’s second largest wildfire ever.The Dixie Fire erupted in Butte County, CA, in the summer of 2021 after a tree fell on a PG&E powerline. The fire burned through 963,000 acres in five counties, destroying and damaging more than 1,400 structures and injuring four people, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CalFire).The utility, which serves more than 16 million natural gas and electric customers in Northern and Central California, “failed to identify the subject tree that started the Dixie Fire as a hazard tree…At minimum, PG&E failed to identify the hazard tree for five years” leading up to the fire...
Two long-track tornadoes strike Tampa Bay, Florida - On October 12, 2023, two long-track tornadoes swept through parts of Tampa Bay, Florida, U.S., significantly affecting Citrus, Pinellas, and Pasco counties. The early morning twisters caused extensive damage, leading to road closures and class cancellations in Citrus County. The National Weather Service confirmed that the tornadoes made landfall around 02:00 LT, with one leaving a trail in Citrus County and another initiating near Clearwater Beach, extending its path to eastern Hernando County. In Dunedin, the Harbor Pointe condos by Frenchy’s Market faced significant damage. A portion of its third-floor wall was blown away, leaving a substantial void in the building situated on Causeway Boulevard. Luckily, the specific condo that sustained the damage was uninhabited at the time. Trucks were toppled and storefronts on Causeway Boulevard and Bayshore Boulevard were left with shattered windows. While the twister caused damage to a minimum of two homes on El Dorado Avenue, there were no reports of injuries. Emergency management pinpointed another tornado at the intersection of US 19 and W Island Ford Trail in Crystal River. Reports mentioned roof damage and downed power lines in the surrounding areas. Officials have declared closures of multiple roads in Citrus County’s Crystal River area. Highway 44 is shut from the juncture of U.S. Highway 19 to Turkey Oak Drive. Additionally, Highway 19 is closed from West Fort Island Trail to Northeast Fifth Street in Crystal River.
Series of powerful earthquakes, including twin M6.3s, hit western Afghanistan in quick succession - more than 2 000 killed and 9 000 injured - A strong and shallow earthquake registered by the USGS as M6.3 hit western Afghanistan at 06:41 UTC (10:11 local time) on October 7, 2023. The quake was followed by M5.5 at 06:49 UTC, M4.7 at 07:10 UTC, M6.3 at 07:12 UTC, M5.9 at 07:40 UTC, and M4.6 at 08:06 UTC — all at shallow depths between 7.7 and 14 km (4.8 – 8.7 miles). More than 2 000 people were killed and more than 9 000 others injured, as of Sunday morning, October 8. The Taliban have announced that more than 10 villages have been destroyed. At least 1 320 houses were damaged or destroyed. The epicenters were located about 34 km (21 miles) NNE of Zindah Jān (population 10 104), 39 km (24 miles) NW of Herāt (population 574 300), and 39 km (24.3 miles) SSE of Qarah Bāgh (population 12 412), Herat, Afghanistan. 1.2 million people are living within 50 km (31 miles) of the epicenter and around 2 million within 100 km (62 miles). GDACS has issued a Red alert for all earthquakes in the sequence thus far — high humanitarian impact is expected based on the magnitude and the affected population and their vulnerability. According to the USGS PAGER, 1 000 people are estimated to have felt severe shaking (M6.3), 15 000 very strong, 920 000 strong, and 839 000 moderate. The USGS issued an Orange alert for shaking-related fatalities. Significant casualties are likely and the disaster is potentially widespread. Past events with this alert level have required a regional or national level response. A Yellow alert was issued for economic losses. Some damage is possible. Estimated economic losses are less than 1% of GDP of Afghanistan. Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though resistant structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are adobe block and unreinforced brick with mud and timber post-construction. Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides that might have contributed to losses.
Ozone hole over Antarctica soars to one of its largest sizes on record, Hunga Tonga eruption possible cause - On September 16, 2023, a significantly large ozone hole stretched over Antarctica, covering an area of 26 million km3 (10.04 million mi3), prompting a deeper look into the possible causes. The size of the ozone hole over Antarctica has always been subject to fluctuations, primarily increasing from August to October, and gradually decreasing with the rise of temperatures in the stratosphere of the southern hemisphere towards the end of the year. However, the size of the ozone hole this year has propelled scientists to delve into possible causes, with one speculative factor being the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption in January 2022. The eruption is believed to have injected a substantial amount of water vapor into the stratosphere, which eventually reached the south polar regions post the closure of the 2022 ozone hole. This water vapor potentially facilitated the formation of polar stratospheric clouds where chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) could react, accelerating the ozone depletion process. Moreover, the presence of water vapor might have contributed to the cooling of the Antarctic stratosphere, promoting the formation of these clouds, and reinforcing a robust polar vortex, hence a larger ozone hole. However, it’s important to note that the exact impact of the Hunga Tonga eruption on the Southern Hemisphere ozone hole is still a subject of ongoing research. This is due to the absence of previous instances where such substantial amounts of water vapor were injected into the stratosphere in modern observations.
Giant Solar Storm 14,000 Years Ago Leaves The Carrington Event in The Dust --The Carrington Event was a major reality check for a rapidly industrializing humanity. In September 1859, the Sun unleashed an eruption so powerful it sent electrical currents sweeping across Earth's surface, wiping out telegraph systems around the world, with fires and mayhem.We've not seen its like since, but ancient evidence suggests that our Sun is capable of more – so very much more. In the rings of ancient, partially fossilized trees, scientists have found evidence of a solar storm at least an order of magnitude more powerful than the Carrington Event.It took place, they say, some 14,300 years ago, well before there was a technology grid to disrupt. Such events, more powerful than Carrington, appear periodically in the fossil record. But this one is the most powerful ever seen.Solar, or geomagnetic, storms are common here on Earth. They occur when the Sun erupts in a colossal flare or coronal mass ejection. If the eruption occurs in the direction of Earth, a huge influx of charged particles will hit our magnetosphere.The effects of this are mostly pretty mild. The interaction between the particles and atmospheric molecules result insome pretty spectacular auroras. It can disrupt satellite and radio communications at certain bands.During particularly powerful (and thankfully relatively rare) solar storms, the disruption to Earth's electromagnetic field can produce currents that can impact power grids.Another quirk of solar storms is the effect they have on the radioactive carbon-14 constantly raining down on Earth. This radiocarbon is produced in the upper atmosphere as cosmic particles interact with atmospheric particles.Carbon-14 is incorporated into organisms, such as trees and animals, and because it decays at a known rate, scientists can use it to determine when these organisms lived.And it can also reveal historical solar eruptions, hidden in the annual rings of old trees.The solar storm that took place 14,300 years ago was found in subfossilized trees within the eroded banks of the Drouzet River in the Southern French Alps. A subfossil is one that has not yet completed the fossilization process.The researchers created slices of these trees, and found a ring with a huge spike in radiocarbon, dated to around 14,300 years ago.We have other records of this time, in ice cores extracted from Greenland. At around the 14,300 years ago mark, the researchers found in these ice cores a higher concentration of an isotope of beryllium that is also linked to a radiation storm.The concentrations of both of these signatures are consistent with what we call Miyake events. These are incredibly powerful geomagnetic storms – way more powerful than the Carrington event. Including this new discovery, nine Miyake events have been identified in the last 15,000 years, the most recent being around 774 CE. We aren't entirely sure what causes them; solar storms are thought to be the most likely, but nearby supernovae could also be responsible. Either way, the effects would probably be the same here on Earth – devastating."Extreme solar storms could have huge impacts on Earth. Such super storms could permanently damage the transformers in our electricity grids, resulting in huge and widespread blackouts lasting months," says statistician Tim Heaton of the University of Leeds in the UK.The research has been published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.
Asteroid 2023 TV3 to fly past Earth at 0.2 LD - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2023 TV3 will fly past Earth at a distance of 0.2 LD / 0.00056 AU (83 034 km / 51 595 miles) at 12:54 UTC on October 12, 2023. This is the 72nd known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance. 2023 TV3 was first observed at Pan-STARRS 1, Haleakala, Hawaii on October 7, 5 days before its close approach. It belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 8 and 18 m (26 – 60 feet).
Global emissions from energy use to increase through 2050: analysis - Despite efforts to shift toward low-carbon energy, global emissions from energy use will increase through 2050, according to a new analysis. A new report from the U.S. government found that population and income increases will “offset” the impacts of efficiency and lower carbon intensity. The report, from the independent Energy Information Administration (EIA), said that while there will be some shift away from fossil fuels, current policies are “not enough” to cut global emissions from energy use. The burning of fossil fuels releases planet-warming emissions and is the main driver of climate change. The United Nations’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said the world needs to cut its emissions all the way down to carbon neutrality by 2050 to limit global warming to a level that evades some of the worst impacts of climate change. China will still be the “primary” source of carbon dioxide emissions through 2050, the EIA said, though its share of emissions is expected to decline. India is expected to be the second-biggest emitter by midcentury, a title the U.S. holds. China has said it hopes to see its emissions peak by 2030 and reach net zero by 2060. India has said it hopes to be carbon neutral by 2070. Globally, emissions from the transportation sector’s energy use are expected to grow between 8 percent and 41 percent between 2022 and 2050, while emissions from the industrial sector’s energy use are slated to grow by between 9 and 62 percent.
Climate crisis is ‘not gender neutral’: UN calls for more policy focus on women -- Only a third of countries include sexual and reproductive health in their national plans to tackle the climate crisis, the UN has warned.Of the 119 countries that have published plans, only 38 include access to contraception, maternal and newborn health services and just 15 make any reference to violence against women, according to a report published by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and Queen Mary University of London on Tuesday.The report is the first to examine whether climate plans refer to sexual and reproductive health.It calls on more countries to recognise the disproportionate impact of the climate crisis on women and girls, and for more action.Rising temperatures have been linked to poorer maternal health and complications during pregnancy, such as gestational diabetes. Extreme heat has been associated with triggering earlier deliveries and an increase in stillbirths.The report said the climate crisis exacerbated existing inequalities. In east and southern Africa, for example, tropical cyclones have damaged health facilities, disrupting access to maternal health services and helping spread waterborne diseases such as cholera.Hurricanes and droughts increase the risks of gender-based violence and child marriage, it added, as families under stress are less able to support daughtersand seek to marry them off.Angela Baschieri, an adviser on population and development for UNFPA and one of the report’s authors, said: “If we look at the plan of action for women and girls, national plans show there is more work that could be done.“We know climate change disproportionately affects women and is not gender neutral so there is a need to address those gaps and impacts.”
The legal battle over Biden's climate metric isn't over - The Biden administration may have dodged a blow this week in its effort to put a price tag on the cost of planet-warming emissions — but the legal fight is far from over.For years, Republican-led states have tried — and failed — to stop the Biden administration from using interim estimates of the social cost of greenhouse gases that help federal agencies write stronger climate regulations.On Tuesday, one round of their legal battle came to a close after the Supreme Court declined to review a decision that rejected the red states’ arguments on the grounds that agencies had not yet used the formulas in rulemaking at the time they filed their challenges.Lower courts had ruled that the states could not show how they had been harmed. The Supreme Court, as it does in most cases it declines to hear, did not offer a reason for its rejection.The justices “make it very clear that you can’t challenge these valuations in the abstract,” said Max Sarinsky, a senior attorney at the Institute for Policy Integrity. “You have to challenge them in their application.”But Missouri or other GOP-led states are expected to return to court as the Biden administration finalizes more rules using the interim social cost estimates. And a new White House proposal to broaden use of the metric by applying it to a wider swath of government decisions is likely to spur another round of litigation.“Every time that the administration uses the social cost of carbon, they open themselves up to a potential lawsuit by the state or other private parties on the basis that the social cost of carbon calculation is invalid,” said Devin Watkins, an attorney for the Competitive Enterprise Institute.The estimates highlight the hidden costs of climate change by putting a price on a metric ton of emissions. For carbon, the Biden administration has used estimates of about $51 per metric ton. That figure is consistent with the estimate used under the Obama administration, adjusted for inflation. However, it is a sharp increase from the estimate for carbon used under former President Donald Trump — about $1 per metric ton.
As climate risks mount, the insurance safety net is collapsing - We’ve got ourselves a little monster out there,” anchorman Jim Cantore warned, facing the camera in the Weather Channel’s newsroom on a sultry August weekend in 1992. As the storm approached Florida, it gained the moniker Andrew, rapidly intensifying into a Category 5 hurricane as it exceeded wind speeds of 165 mph. Karen Clark watched updates on TV from her home in Boston with fascinated horror — and her career on the line. Most insurance companies at that time assessed hurricane exposure in their portfolios by simply multiplying customer premiums by a rough factor of supposed risk, rather than tracking actual property replacement costs. “They were just very crude formulas,” she said. So in 1987, Clark had started her own company, Applied Insurance Research, or AIR, to develop software that better estimated the potential losses from catastrophic events. Unlike the rest of the industry, she used granular data and sophisticated analyses, an approach now called catastrophe modeling. Her first computer model estimated that a Category 5 hurricane hitting Dade County could cause losses almost 10 times more than previously believed. She warned her customers about the risk in Florida, but until Hurricane Andrew, no one listened. “The good ol’ boys at Lloyds [of London], you know, they thought they had it all figured out,” she said. “They didn’t need any help from this American woman carrying around a little computer.” By that Sunday morning in 1992, it became clear that Andrew’s eye was aiming straight for Miami. Clark rushed into the AIR office, where her models suggested that the storm could cause at least $13 billion in damages — a disaster so expensive at first she debated whether she should publish the results. As the hurricane made landfall the next day, it tore palm trees from the ground and stripped roofs from houses, carving a devastating path across southern Florida. Over 100,000 homes were damaged, and an additional 50,000 were destroyed. When a client called asking about his probable losses, Clark told him around $200 million dollars. “He said, ‘For the industry?’ and I was like, ‘No. For your company.’” AIR’s estimates turned out to be conservative: Andrew eventually cost the insurance industry $15 billion. In the aftermath, Clark said, “everyone knew the market was going to radically change.” The catastrophe models she developed quickly became the industry standard, changing how American companies navigated risk from natural disasters. In hindsight, it was the beginning of the dynamic now driving insurance markets. To handle massive payout events like Andrew, insurance companies sell policies across different markets — historically, a hurricane wasn’t hitting Florida in the same month a wildfire wiped out a town in California. They themselves also pay for insurance, a financial instrument called reinsurance that helps distribute risk across geographic regions. Reinsurance availability remains a major driver of what insurance you can buy — and how much it costs.
Exxon, Apple and Other Corporate Giants Will Have to Disclose All Their Emissions Under California’s New Climate Laws – That Will Have a Global Impact - Many of the world’s largest public and private companies will soon be required to track and report almost all of their greenhouse gas emissions if they do business in California – including emissions from their supply chains, business travel, employees’ commutes and the way customers use their products.That means oil and gas companies like Chevron will likely have to account for emissions from vehicles that use their gasoline, and Apple will have to account for materials that go into iPhones.It’s a huge leap from current federal and state reporting requirements, which require reporting of only certain emissions from companies’ direct operations. And it will have global ramifications.California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed two new rules into law on Oct. 7, 2023. Under the new Climate Corporate Data Accountability Act, U.S.- companies with annual revenues of US$1 billion or more will have to report both their direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions starting in 2026 and 2027. The California Chamber of Commerce opposed the regulation, arguing it would increase companies’ costs. But more than a dozen major corporations endorsed the rule, including Microsoft, Apple, Salesforce and Patagonia.The second law, the Climate-Related Financial Risk Act, requires companies generating $500 million or more to report their financial risks related to climate change and their plans for risk mitigation. Most of the companies covered by California’s climate disclosure rules are multinational corporations. They include technology companies such as Apple, Google and Microsoft; giant retailers like Walmart and Costco; and oil and gas companies such as ExxonMobil and Chevron.Many of these large corporations have been preparing for mandatory disclosure rules for several years.Close to two-thirds of the companies listed in the S&P 500 index voluntarilyreport to CDP, formerly called the Carbon Disclosure Project. CDP is a nonprofit that surveys companies on behalf of institutional investors about their carbon management and plans to reduce carbon emissions.Many of them also face reporting requirements elsewhere, including in theEuropean Union, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Singapore and cities likeHong Kong.Moreover, some of the same U.S. companies, notably banks and asset managers that operate or sell products in Europe, have already started to comply with the EU’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation. Those regulations require companies to report how sustainability risks are integrated into investment decision-making.While California isn’t the first place to mandate climate disclosures, it is thefifth-largest economy in the world. So, the state’s new laws are poised to have substantial influence worldwide. Subsidiaries of companies that didn’t have to report their emissions before will now be subject to disclosure requirements. California is in effect exercising its immense market leverage to establish climate disclosures as standard practice in the U.S. and beyond.
Oil giants unveil 'game-ending' strategy to kill climate cases - The legal battle over whether cities, counties and states can hold fossil fuel companies financially accountable for heat waves, flooding and other effects of climate change is entering a critical new phase. Since 2017, parties in the cases have squabbled over whether the lawsuits should be heard in federal or state courts. Now that federal appeals courts have agreed the cases belong before state judges — and the Supreme Court has so far declined to say otherwise — oil companies are pushing for the lawsuits to be scrapped altogether. “This is really, ‘Does it belong in any court?’“ said Pat Parenteau, emeritus professor at Vermont Law and Graduate School. “That’s what the companies are counting on: a decision that the cases won’t be heard anywhere.” Though previous court battles have centered on jurisdictional issues, the next phase will determine whether the cases are sufficient to proceed to discovery and trial, Parenteau said. “It’s substantial,” he said, “and it’s potentially game-ending.” During arguments in Delaware’s climate liability case last month and filings in two Maryland lawsuits in Annapolis and Anne Arundel County, industry attorneys have argued that a finding in favor of the local governments would require state judges to set energy policy far beyond their borders. The challengers are “asking this court to regulate the nationwide — and even worldwide — marketing and distribution of lawful products on which billions of people beyond the state’s jurisdiction rely,” industry lawsuits told the Anne Arundel County Circuit Court in Maryland. Allowing the claims to proceed, they continued, “would not only usurp the power of the legislative and executive branches [both federal and state] to set climate policy, but would do so retrospectively and far beyond the geographic boundaries of Maryland.” The oil companies’ motions to dismiss the climate liability cases have already been rejected by one court in Hawaii and are under appeal. Industry lawyers made similar claims in cases filed by the city and county of Honolulu, as well as Delaware and Hoboken, N.J. They are expected to soon lodge motions to dismiss in cases brought by Puerto Rico; New Jersey; and Charleston, S.C. The municipalities are among more than two dozen local governments to file climate liability lawsuits since 2017. The cases accuse the oil industry of misleading the public about the dangers of burning fossil fuels, and they seek money to address the ravages of climate change. If successful, the lawsuits could leave the oil industry on the hook for hundreds of billions of dollars.
World "less likely than ever" to meet Paris Agreement goal: new analysis -- New analysis finds that holding temperature rise to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels — the Paris Agreement's stretch goal — is "less likely than ever" despite rapid low-emissions energy expansion.A long-term outlook issued by risk management firm DNV is among a suite of reports (both out currently and upcoming) that help frame COP28 discussions and beyond.It explores how rapid deployment of renewables and other climate-friendly tech is greatly slowing fossil fuel growth, preventing some of the worst future climate outcomes.But while coal has leveled off, clean sources have yet to reverse overall fossil growth — let alone start shoving emissions downward fast enough to keep the 1.5°C north star in view. "Globally, the energy transition has not started, if, by transition, we mean that clean energy replaces fossil energy in absolute terms," DNV CEO Remi Eriksen said in a statement.DNV sees global energy-related emissions peaking in 2024, but falling too slowly to be Paris friendly, with a 46% cut at midcentury.Geopolitical risks — notably Russia's attack on Ukraine — have boosted focus on energy security and local supplies. "This trend is favouring renewables and nuclear energy in all regions and coal in some regions," the report states. DNV's "most likely" forecast sees temperature rise of 2.2°C by 2100.That's far below the catastrophic levels that would be in store, absent steep zero-carbon energy growth. But it's still a recipe for intensifying heat waves, storms and other major harms.
Africa’s revolt against Net Zero - For the past two centuries, human prosperity has correlated with one factor: energy, released through the burning of fossil fuels. This is a self-evident global truth. Europe and North America, the wealthiest regions on the planet, are also those with the highest per capita CO2 emissions (along with the oil-producing Gulf states); Africa, on the other hand, hasthe world’s lowest levels of per capita energy use — the average African consumes less electricity than a refrigerator and around 600 million people livewithout access to to electricity. In this sense, it’s the “greenest” continent on the planet. It’s also the poorest, with almost half a billion Africans living in extreme poverty.More than any other resource, Africa is starved of the energy it needs for economic development. This isn’t for lack of natural endowment. Africa possesses vast reserves of coal, oil and natural gas. But extracting those resources and using them for domestic development requires money, infrastructure, expertise and institutional capacity — which Africa’s poorest nations, especially in the sub-Sahara, sadly lack. One solution is partnering with foreign energy companies — until recently, mostly European and American firms — but that means that much of the domestically produced gas and oil is then exportedrather than used for local development.Yet beyond practical difficulties, in recent years an ideological force has also come to stymie potential development: the global political creed of Net Zero.While the phrase is already associated with straitened living standards in the West, in the developing world Net Zero threatens to lock countries into perpetual underdevelopment. So far, it has mainly taken the form of Western countries limiting overseas fossil fuel investments. As early as 2014, one study found that the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, the main US development finance institution, had started “to invest principally in solar, wind, and other low-emissions energy projects as part of the [Obama] administration’s effort to promote clean energy technology”.Then, at the COP26 climate summit in 2021, the US and several European countries pledged to stop funding oil and gas projects in developing countries. The Biden administration has since gone even further, ordering a halt to investments in “carbon-intensive”, fossil fuel-based energy projects globally, and issuing new guidance for multilateral development banks such as the World Bank, “aimed at squeezing off fossil fuel financing except in certain circumstances”. The US also vowed to oppose all new coal- and oil-based projects, and to offer only “narrow support” for natural gas projects. Prior to that, the World Bank had already said it would no longer financially support oil and gas after 2019. Other international funding groups, such as theEuropean Investment Bank, have started linking finance to climate adaptation and mitigation, curtailing or halting their funding of fossil fuel and even nuclear projects.Meanwhile, across Africa, the Western climate-industrial complex, composed of NGOs and state development agencies, has started pouring vast amounts of money into wind and solar projects. And this combination of carrot and stick was a clear injunction to poor countries in Africa and around the world: if they want to develop, they have to do so in a “green” and “sustainable” manner. Advocates and policymakers started pushing the idea that this was totally feasible — that poor countries can generate all the energy they need from renewable sources, primarily wind and solar power. That, in other words, Africa can achieve Net Zero and industrialisation simultaneously. This claim is a delusional fantasy — and a dangerous one at that.
What's next for direct air capture? - The Biden administration is racing to finalize $1.2 billion in grants to spur the development of industrial installations that can pull massive quantities carbon dioxide out of the air.But the Department of Energy’s bid to supercharge the nascent direct air capture industry is just getting started, with the ground rules for a $2.4 billion DAC hub funding competition set for release as soon as next year. The outcome of that competition is expected to lead to the construction of DAC megaprojects in at least two more American communities and could have significant ramifications for the corporations, venture capitalists and environmentalists that are invested in the success of the emerging climate technology. Climate scientists believe widespread deployment of DAC and other carbon removal technologies will be necessary for the planet to avoid dangerously overheating. So which companies and communities are most likely to be chosen for the remaining DAC hubs — and the billions of dollars DOE has set aside to help develop them?Proposals that nabbed the biggest awards during the first funding round in August probably have a leg up on future DAC hub prizes, industry observers say, but technological advancements could result in some surprising winners. The most important factor DOE will consider next time is probably “readiness,” said Peter Findlay, the director of carbon capture economics at the research firm Wood Mackenzie. “How are you solving — or at least covering up — the challenges you have going forward towards scale?” he said of the potential applicants.Development teams that got the most money in the first round “have been able to demonstrate to the government that they’ve got a better plan to deal with costs and to deal with the scale-up, or they have enticing technology,” Findlay added.DAC plants use fans, filters, piping and power to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it underground. They could also use the concentrated CO2 to make products like concrete and carbon-neutral plastics or fuels. DOE has tentatively committed to spending roughly $1 billion to defray the costs of constructing two of four congressionally mandated DAC hubs. The agency also promised to spend nearly $100 million to help advance 19 other DAC hub proposals in varying states of development.
Fossil-fuel industry embrace raises alarm bells over direct air capture - There’s little doubt that direct air capture (DAC) is divisive: on the one hand, it is a relatively simple technology that can, in theory, be deployed anywhere to draw carbon emissions out of the air. On the other, it is expensive, unproven and, in the view of many, captive to the interests of fossil-fuel producers.Among its backers is Boston Consulting Group, which argues that carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are essential to delivering the “net” in net zero, helping to offset hard-to-abate industries and to reduce the build-up of historic emissions already present in the atmosphere.Direct air capture, it says, has significant advantages over other CDR approaches in terms of scalability, permanence and verifiability. “DAC is more than 100 times as land-efficient as reforestation, making it a more scalable solution. It can sequester emissions for many centuries, making it the most permanent of all removal options. And tracking how much CO2 has been removed is straightforward, making it more verifiable than ocean alkalinisation. As a result, even though it is still nascent, DAC could play a critical role in delivering on net zero,” the group says.DAC is still in its very earliest stages, with only 18 facilities in operation, capturing just 10,000 metric tons, a year. Nearly half of that amount, 4,000 tons is being stored at Climeworks’ Orca plant in Iceland, which opened in 2021. Read moreBut many more are in the pipeline, some of which are due to come online in the next couple of years. The largest of these is by 1PointFive, a subsidiary of Occidental’s Oxy Low Carbon Ventures and Carbon Engineering. Its facility in Texas, which will capture CO2 and use some of it for enhanced oil recovery, is due to start operating in 2025 and capture up to 500,000 tons of CO2 a year.Developers had been encouraged by a wave of government largesse for the technology, particularly in the U.S. Biden administration’s infrastructure bill last year, which authorised $3.5 billion to create four commercial scale DAC hubs. In August the Department of Energyannounced the first $1.2 million for the first hubs, in Texas and Louisiana. It has also increased its 45Q tax credit to $180 per ton for CO2 captured via DAC. Meanwhile, the European Commission has a target to store up to 50 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2) a year by 2030, including from DAC, and the UK announced 20 billion pounds in funding for carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), including DAC, in March 2023. Rolls-Royce is one beneficiary, having secured 3 million pounds to build a DAC demonstration plant that will be operational by the end of the year.Canada offers a tax credit of around 60% for DAC projects, while Japan’s carbon capture roadmap has a target of capturing 6 to 12 MtCO2 per year by 2030.Matt Kirley, manager for climate-aligned industries at the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) likens it to “solar in the early 2000s”.The prodigious amounts of energy required to capture CO2 from the air, which accounts for only 0.04% of the atmosphere, mean the first-of-a-kind costs for DAC technologies range from $180 to $2,750 a ton. Still, there seems to be no shortage of corporate funding. Companies have pledged $1 billion to advance market commitments through organisations such as Frontier, as well as privately.But while fossil fuel industry investment and expertise is speeding development of the technology, it is also ringing alarm bells among environmental groups and civil society.Occidental Oil, which invested $1.1 billion to purchase Carbon Engineering earlier this year, is not the only oil and gas player. Chevron also has an equity investment in Carbon Engineering, while Exxon, which has a joint research agreement with Global Thermostat, told Reuters that it is also developing DAC technology.Mark Jacobson, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford University, says that with 75% of CO2 captured today being used for enhanced oil recovery (EOR), DAC is simply allowing emissions to continue. “It is so much simpler just to use solar power to produce green hydrogen,” he told the Cleantech Talk podcast. “Stopping the emission of a ton of CO2 is exactly the same as taking a ton out of the air. It’s much more efficient to stop emitting.”
Crypto Mining Spews Pollution, Not Wealth, into Rural Communities -- Critics of crypto-mining operations say the burgeoning industry is not delivering on promises to provide jobs and economic development to rural areas in exchange for cheap power and tax breaks.Little available data suggests that the companies that use massive, power-hungry data centers, tend to be located in rural areas. Critics say those operations may be harming rural communities more than they are helping.According to Earthjustice, a national organization focusing on environmental law, crypto mining’s power usage may be increasing pollution. But because the industry is largely unregulated, measuring its impact on the regions where it operates is difficult.Crypto mining uses large banks of computers to generate crypto currency by solving complex mathematical problems. The work requires lots of processing power and therefore lots of electricity.Determining how many crypto-mining facilities are in operation is difficult, according to FracTracker Alliance, an organization that documents how crypto-mining facilities use energy.“Because there is no centralized registry or clearinghouse for this elusive industry, it is challenging, if not impossible, to maintain an up-to-the-minute and comprehensive tally of all the locations, sizes, and other details about where new cryptocurrency mining facilities are emerging,” the organization said on its web site. As of November 2022, the organization said, there were 165 sites across the country — 84 in operation, 41 proposed, seven under construction and two defeated. The organization said the status of the remaining 33 is unknown. In Kentucky, several crypto-mining operations have sprung up in the last three years after legislation was passed granting them tax incentives. Among those plants are Biofuel Mining in Inez, Cyber Innovations in Belfry, Umine LLC in McKee, Bitiki Mine in Waverly, Core Scientific in Calvert City, and Ebon International in Louisa. All of these locations are in nonmetropolitan (or rural) counties. The mining operations require the servers to run 24 hours a day. According to the White House, in 2022, the U.S. hosted about 38% of all global Bitcoin mining activity, up from just 3.5 % in 2020. Earthjustice said between mid-2021 and 2022 crypto mining required 36 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity – as much as all of the electricity consumed by Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont and Rhode Island combined. Earthjustice estimates that energy consumption resulted in nearly 30 million tons of excess CO2 emissions in 2022 alone.
Energy Firms, Green Groups and Others Reach Deal on Solar Farms - Solar developers, environmentalists, farming groups and tribal organizations said on Thursday that they had reached an agreement that could make it easier in the United States to build large solar farms, which have attracted stiff opposition in some places. The agreement seeks to address some thorny land-use and biodiversity issues that often stymie power projects in which developers propose installing large arrays of solar panels. The deal is the result of months of discussions organized by the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, the Solar Energy Industries Association and the Nature Conservancy. Various groups have opposed large solar projects, arguing that they take up land that is sacred to tribes or is home to threatened plants or animals. Some people have also opposed solar farms for aesthetic reasons, arguing that they ruin their view or the pastoral nature of their communities. Participants in the talks that produced the agreement said it would give project developers and potential opponents a framework — focusing on greater public participation early in the siting process — to resolve concerns without resorting to legal and political fights. That, in turn, would help accelerate the use of solar energy and fight climate change. “These battles breaking out all over the country are not good for parties on any side,” said Dan Reicher, an energy scholar at the Woods Institute who started the talks. “The good news is that they have decided to lay down their swords and try something new.” While the agreement includes representatives from various groups that have opposed solar projects, it does not include the fossil fuel industry or conservatives who have sought to slow or stop the use of renewable energy. It is also not clear how much sway the agreement will have on local groups that oppose projects in their communities. Still, Abigail Ross Hopper, the president and chief executive of the solar association, said the agreement would help developers and environmental and local groups resolve their differences more quickly. Her group, the industry’s largest trade association, estimates that the United States needs to increase the share of its electricity that comes from the sun to 30 percent by 2030, up from 5 percent now. “We are seeing that rural America has some concerns about where those projects are sited and how those projects are sited,” Ms. Hopper said.
Making Solar Energy as Clean as Can Be Means Fitting Square Panels Into the Circular Economy - Even for the most enthusiastic boosters of renewable energy, it’s hard to argue that solar panels provide truly clean electricity if, at the end of their lives, many of them end up in landfills. But keeping solar cells out of the dump requires a market for recycled solar materials that is much more robust than what currently exists and policies that incentivize companies to recycle their panels and use recycled materials when they’re building new ones. Still, for many experts, the first step in creating such a “circular economy” in which decommissioned solar components are repurposed in new ones, is to prohibit the disposal of solar panels in landfills at all. It currently costs about $5 to put a panel into a landfill, compared to $20 to recycle it, said Taylor Curtis, regulatory and policy analyst at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. It doesn’t help that there are no government incentives to promote recycling the panels. While many industry workers are hopeful that will change soon after recent investments by the U.S. Department of Energy into more efficient recycling technology, they believe that because of the pure cost of going greener, new policies must come into play to make that happen. “There’s no real incentive to recycle right now based on our current regulatory structure,” Curtis said. “There’s really a need for a policy that is designed to incentivize recycling over disposal to kind of help overcome some of those market challenges.” Current federal regulations treat disposal of panels and recycling them the same, leading to regulations that may be stricter than needed for recycling, she said. That’s causing issues. Because some solar panels are made with lead, they are labeled as hazardous materials and subject to regulation that limits how many panels can be stored at a facility and for how long. Assuming each panel weighs 50 pounds, Curtis said a recycling facility can only store up to 264 of them a month. That makes transporting them more expensive because not enough can be shipped out be cost effective, she said, and prevents a site from storing enough of them to make their recycling into an economy of scale. Just how hazardous the lead is is debatable, Curtis said, largely due to the lack of information on just how much lead there is in different solar panels built by various companies. It’s a double-edged sword, Saghei said, because panels’ hazardous classifications create clear obstacles to their recycling, but can also drive policies that keep them out of landfills and the environment.
When it comes to mining on sacred lands, some tribal members say their voices have been overlooked – Sierra Nevada Ally - The planned Thacker Pass lithium mining project in northern Nevada is hoping to provide the lithium needed to fuel the green energy transition. While the company has done its own outreach, regional tribes say they weren’t properly consulted by the government. A member of the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe and the Kutzadik’a Paiute people, Bethany Sam works for the Reno-Sparks Indian Colony, whose reservation sits just north of Reno, Nevada.It’s about 200 miles from what could be the country’s largest natural deposit of lithium, a critical mineral suddenly in high demand for use in electric vehicle batteries and electronics. The distance doesn’t mean Reno-Sparks won’t be affected by the decades-long process of extracting the material from the ground and putting it into the domestic supply chain. A Canadian firm, Lithium Americas, has received federal approval to begin mining at the site, and several indigenous and environmental groups are worried about the potential impacts.While the tribal government nearest to the project has a community benefits agreement with the company, residents of the Fort McDermitt Indian Reservation and other nearby reservations are dissatisfied with the level of community outreach by federal officials.Sam said regional tribes, who are all connected to the land, were not consulted, and the U.S. Bureau of Land Management instead opted to communicate with just a few tribes.“BLM thought that they only had to consult with who they wanted to, not realizing how we’re all related. They should have reached out to more tribes with this consultation, knowing that it was going to be the largest [lithium mine] in the country. They should have really made sure all the Great Basin tribes knew,” she said. Since its inception, the state of Nevada has been a hotbed for mining. Today, Nevada is the world’s fifth largest producer of gold, digging up significantly more of the valuable material than “The Golden State” of California next door. But, there is another extractive industry taking root in the remote high desert of northern Nevada: lithium.A 6,000-acre lithium mine and processing plant is under construction in remote northern Nevada, but the project has been stalled by a series of legal challenges from environmentalists, a local rancher and regional tribes. The tribes have said the Bureau of Land Management did not conduct proper consultation with them about this project, which was approved during the pandemic when many tribal governments were closed and dealing with the immediate needs of tribal members.When it comes to any large-scale projects on federally managed public lands, the BLM is required to consult on a government-to-government basis with affected tribal governments. In the case of the Thacker Pass lithium mine project in northern Nevada, tribes across the Great Basin say that didn’t happen – and that’s causing concern and division among tribal members.The BLM says in December 2019, it sent certified letters to four regional tribes: the McDermitt Paiute and Shoshone Tribe, the Pyramid Lake Tribe, Summit Lake Paiute Tribe, and Winnemucca Indian Colony tribes. The agency says “no comments or concerns have been raised during formal government to government consultation for the Project by the tribes.”
Electric vehicles all queued up with nowhere to go - The federal government’s electrified vision for the nation’s transportation sector needs a modernized power grid to support it – and experts say they need it now. More concerning still, they say, upgrades aren’t on track to meet the Biden administration’s 2035 target for an electric vehicle takeover.That’s because shoring up grid capacity, moderating the variability of renewable energy, and appeasing duplicative government regulations complicate the process, creating doubts about whether these goals are attainable at the scope and pace being set. Robert Charette – a longtime systems engineer, contributing editor for IEEE Spectrum, and author of "The EV Transition Explained" – said simultaneously transforming the transportation and energy sectors “will involve a huge number of known and unknown variables, which will subtly interact in complex, unpredictable ways … and each proposed solution will probably create new difficulties.”Lehigh Valley engineer James M. Daley, PE, a member of the IEEE Standards Association – with decades-long experience developing criteria addressing the interconnection of new energy technologies to the electric grid – told The Center Square that “variable renewable energy already has an impact on the resiliency of the national grid.”“The introduction of EVs will only serve to exacerbate the issue,” he said.It’s important, he said, to differentiate between renewable energy, or RE, and variable renewable energy, or VRE. For example, geothermal, nuclear, and hydroelectric are considered RE, whereas wind and solar are VRE. The distinction between the two is made because wind and solar power are contingent on weather and atmospheric conditions, while other sources are constant sources of energy.
US picks seven hydrogen hubs in $7bn programme (ICIS)–The US Department of Energy (DoE) has picked seven hubs scattered through the country to become its main centres of hydrogen production, it said on Friday. Among the chosen is Houston’s Gulf Coast Hydrogen Hub, called HyVelocity. It will receive up to $1.2bn to develop clean hydrogen.The hydrogen hub programme is part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and the US expects the hubs will produce 3m tonnes/year of hydrogen, or a third of the 2030 production target of the country. The participants in the seven hubs will contribute their own money, so the total size of the investment could reach $50bn.The hubs could produce traditional hydrogen with carbon capture to make blue hydrogen. They could also use renewable energy to power electrolysers. These would split water molecules and produce green hydrogen.The following summarises the six other hydrogen hubs in addition to HyVelocity in Houston.
- Appalachian Hydrogen Hub ($925m), known as the Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub (ARCH2). It includes the states of West Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The region is home to the Marcellus and Utica shale plays, which will provide the hub with abundant natural gas. The hub plans to store the carbon dioxide (CO2) produced by producing blue hydrogen.
- California Hydrogen Hub ($1.2bn), known as the Alliance for Renewable Clean Hydrogen Energy Systems (ARCHES). It will produce hydrogen exclusively from renewable energy and biomass. Biomass can be gasified to produce synthesis gas (syngas), a combination of carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrogen. The resulting CO2 can be sequestered.
- Heartland Hydrogen Hub ($925m). It includes the states of Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota. North Dakota is the home of the Bakken shale play, which could provide the hub with low-cost natural gas produced as a byproduct of shale-oil production. The region is one of the main agricultural regions in the US, and the hub envisions using the hydrogen to produce fertilizer. The hydrogen could be burned by power plants produce electricity that could provide heat during the winter.
- Mid-Atlantic Hydrogen Hub ($750m), known as the Mid-Atlantic Clean Hydrogen Hub (MACH2). It includes the states of Pennsylvania, Delaware and New Jersey. It plans to use existing oil infrastructure, which could include the region’s shuttered refineries. It could produce hydrogen from renewable energy and nuclear power using electrolysers.
- Midwest Hydrogen Hub ($1bn), known as the Midwest Alliance for Clean Hydrogen (MachH2). It includes the states of Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. It could use the hydrogen to produce steel, glass, power and fuel for heavy-duty vehicles. The region’s refineries and renewable fuel plants could use the gas. The hub will produce hydrogen by using renewable energy, natural gas and nuclear power.
- Pacific Northwest Hydrogen Hub ($1bn), known as PNW H2. It includes the states of Washington, Oregon and Montana. It plans to produce hydrogen by using electrolysis.
The problem with making green hydrogen to fuel power plants…Today, utility Florida Power & Light will begin operations at its Cavendish NextGen Hydrogen Hub, one of the country’s first green hydrogen facilities. The 25-megawatt project will use solar power to split water into oxygen and hydrogen atoms, and then blend that hydrogen into fossil gas used to power a turbine generating electricity.It’s one of the first attempts by a U.S. utility to curb emissions using green hydrogen, a fuel that is in short supply today but which experts expect will play an important role in decarbonizing heavy industries.Many U.S. utilities are staking similar hopes on green hydrogen as a path to help the power sector reach a low- or zero-carbon future. FPL, for example, says the new green hydrogen project will help it “assess the long-term viability of green hydrogen” as part of FPL parent company NextEra’s goal of eliminating carbon emissions from its operations by 2045.But according to energy experts, converting clean energy into hydrogen just to use that hydrogen to generate more electricity later is, in most cases, a bad idea. The main concern is that the process will end up wasting enormous amounts of clean power — and green hydrogen far more valuable for use in other ways — in pursuit of a zero-carbon chimera.That’s a problem, because several utilities, FPL included, are using these plans as a rationale to continue investing in new fossil-gas power plants, even though it will be costly to switch that infrastructure from burning fossil gas to burning hydrogen.The fundamental problem lies in the laws of physics. Between 50 and 80 percent of the energy value of clean electricity is lost in the process of making hydrogen and then burning it to generate electricity. Some of those losses occur in the electrolysis process, which is roughly 70to 75 percent efficient. But the lion’s share of losses come in burning hydrogen to spin a generator, a process which at best is roughly 64 percent efficient using the latest combined-cycle gas turbines and can drop to 35 to 42 percent efficiency in older combustion turbines. So unless clean electricity can’t possibly be used in its original form, it’s almost always better to avoid the wasteful process of using it to make hydrogen meant to generate electricity later. That point has been hammered home over and over by one of the world’s preeminent experts on clean energy systems, Michael Liebreich, chair of Liebreich Associates and founder of BloombergNEF.Liebreich’s widely circulated “clean hydrogen ladder” graphic has consistently ranked “power-system balancing” — the activity that FPL’s gas-fired power plants will likely perform — as one of the least competitive applications of green hydrogen in terms of both cost and carbon-reduction capability.
Report: Fossil fuel equipment in Md. buildings causes more smog than power plants - As Maryland policymakers look to fulfill the state’s many mandated climate goals, a new report suggests that the fossil fuel appliances and other heavy equipment used to power homes and businesses are contributing far more to poor air quality than all of the state’s power plants combined.In fact, furnaces, HVAC systems, water heaters and other equipment powered by fossil fuels emit more than three times as much health-harming nitrogen oxides as the state’s power plants, according to the study, “Cutting Through The Smog: How Air Quality Standards Help Solve the Hidden Health Toll of Air Pollution from Maryland’s Homes and Businesses.”“Fossil fuel equipment pollution from buildings has been a major and unappreciated culprit of air pollution in both the Baltimore and Washington metro areas,” the report found. For three decades, Maryland has struggled to meet federal Clean Air Act standards for ozone levels in the Baltimore region. While Maryland has submitted plans to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on how to bring the Baltimore metro area into federal attainment, they do not address nitrogen oxide emissions from buildings. While nitrogen oxide pollution from other sectors has ticked down in recent years, the study found that pollution from burning fossil fuels in residential, commercial and institutional buildings has increased 3.7% from 2017 to 2023. “The equipment we use to heat our homes has a direct impact on our health and well-being,” “This report demonstrates that while fossil fuel equipment such as HVACs and water heaters has been a major source of air pollution, it has been overlooked for far too long.” Among the report’s conclusions:
- People of color in Maryland are exposed to 60% more residential methane gas equipment pollution than white people, while Black Marylanders are exposed to 70% more pollution than white Marylanders.
- Outdoor pollution from fossil fuel equipment in Maryland caused an estimated 163 premature deaths in 2017 alone, driving about 3,500 cases of respiratory symptoms, 6,500 lost work days, and $1.3 billion in public health impacts per year.
The advocates argue that gradually phasing in efficient electric heat pumps in buildings would remove nearly as much nitrogen oxide as taking half the state’s diesel vehicles off the road. In communities where low-income residents are exposed to disproportionate levels of pollution, not only can heat pumps improve their health and well-being, they can in many cases provide utility bill savings: an estimated $373 per year for low-income families that use electric heat pumps rather than a gas furnace.The advocates are seeking an air quality standard for HVACs and water heaters, beginning in 2027, with full implementation by 2030. Maryland is already on track to see this technology in more than 50% of homes by 2030, the report said.California’s Bay Area Air Quality Management District has already adopted zero-nitrogen oxide appliance standards and state policymakers in the Golden State are developing zero-emission appliance standards.
Mitsubishi Completing Oklahoma’s Grand River Dam Coal-to-Gas Transition - The Grand River Dam Authority (GRDA) selected Mitsubishi Power Americas Inc. to install a second 500-MW simple-cycle gas turbine at the Grand River Energy Center to support energy generation while wrapping up coal retirements for Oklahoma’s largest public power utility. Florida-based Mitsubishi Power and GRDA agreed to install the turbine at the Chouteau, OK-based facility. GRDA and Mitsubishi in 2017 had replaced one coal-fired unit with a 500 MW combined-cycle turbine. GRDA CEO Dan Sullivan said the transition would “enhance our generation portfolio…to meet the growing demands of providing affordable and reliable energy to our customers.” The turbine, slated for in-service by April 2026, has operated on hydrogen and natural gas blends, which have delivered a 10%...
Puerto Rico residents wait for cleanup of toxic coal ash --A Virginia-based power company sold its coal ash to local governments and contractors in Puerto Rico as a cheap material for road construction. Almost two decades later, dust and runoff from this coal ash continues to spread toxic and radioactive pollution in rural communities along the island’s south coast.— After Sol Piñeiro retired from bilingual special education in New Jersey public schools, she bought a dream house in Salinas on Puerto Rico’s south coast, near the town where she was born. Only after setting up her slice of paradise here did she learn the road running alongside it contained toxic waste from a nearby power plant. Salinas is one of 14 municipalities around the island that between 2004 and 2011 used coal ash as a cheap material to construct roads and fill land. The material is a byproduct of burning coal and is known to contain a long list of toxic and radioactive chemicals. But the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency did not specifically regulate coal ash until 2015, and those regulations don’t cover the coal ash used in roads like that in Salinas. Any community with a coal-burning power plant likely has tons of toxic coal ash stored somewhere nearby, in pits, ponds or piles. In 2015, the EPA announced new rules requiring groundwater testing and safer storage and disposal methods, but the rules exempt power companies from responsibility for ash dispersed for use in road building and other projects. Scant or nonexistent recordkeeping makes comprehensively mapping this scattered coal ash impossible, but environmental and public health advocates suspect the material is likely contaminating groundwater and causing toxic dust across the United States. Perhaps nowhere is the problem as prominent as on Puerto Rico’s south coast, a rural, economically struggling region far from the capital of San Juan and major tourist destinations. Here, coal ash — or “cenizas” in Spanish — has become a symbol of the environmental injustice that has long plagued the U.S. colony. The ash originated from a coal-fired power plant owned by global energy company AES in the nearby town of Guayama. After the Dominican Republic began refusing imports of the waste, the company promoted the material to Puerto Rican municipalities and contractors as a construction fill product. In all, more than 1.5 million tons of coal ash were deposited in Salinas and Guayama, according to a 2012 letter by the company’s vice president that was obtained by the Puerto Rico-based Centro de Periodismo Investigativo, or Center for Investigative Journalism. In July 2022, a decade after community pressure forced the company to stop marketing ash for such use, EPA Administrator Michael Regan visited Guayama and Salinas to meet with residents about coal ash and other environmental issues as part of his “Journey to Justice” tour. The tour also included the agency’s first Environmental Justice Advisory Council meeting in Puerto Rico. Piñeiro and others are glad for the attention, but given the U.S. government’s long history of broken promises and neglect in Puerto Rico, they are impatient for meaningful action.
After Fayette County’s first proposed injection well is withdrawn, residents worry there may be more to come - The first fracking waste injection well proposed in Fayette County was recently withdrawn after local opposition. Despite the proposal’s withdrawal, county residents say they’re “still trying to stay vigilant” and are working to cut off future avenues for injection well development. The injection well, proposed by Virginia-based G2 STEM LLC in 2022, was to be located about 300 feet from the nearest home and serve to dispose of wastewater from fracking, also known as produced water or brine. Brine contains hazardous materials that may pose risks to groundwater, air quality, and induce seismic activity. “It’s like your neighbor across the street was injecting fracking waste into the ground—that close to your home,” said James Cato of the Mountain Watershed Association.Oil and gas wastewater is produced during fracking and contains salts, chemicals and metals. The EPA says it can be toxic and radioactive. What to do with it is becoming a bigger issue in Pennsylvania. The EPA recently approved a second injection well in Allegheny County, just outside of Pittsburgh. There are 19 permitted wells in the state. Ohio has over 200 injection wells and accepts millions of gallons of Pennsylvania’s fracking waste. In recent months, Ohio regulators have suspended several wells where fluids had migrated into nearby oil and gas wells. Another set of Ohio wells was suspended after toxic brine releases to the surface. Besides proximity, Fayette County residents said they worried the G2 STEM well could fail, leading to contamination of nearby water sources. Dave Smith, a local resident and farm owner, explained there had been a previous test in 2020 to see whether the well would hold to pressure. “They put 4950 barrels of brine down that well, to test that well. And the tests show it failed and it lost pressure. So where’d the brine go?” Smith said. “To this day, we don’t know.”G2 STEM’s proposed well would have been located at one of the highest points in Fayette County, with a number of water sources downstream of it. Were the well to fail and contaminate nearby water sources, Smith worried for local farm animals. “We have livestock that drink out of the streams and springs and I use the wells daily to water them, so that was a big concern.” He said the county is home to a number of dairy farms whose income and water sources could be jeopardized due to contamination. “If we don’t have clean water, we don’t have nothing,” said Smith.Smith and others went “door to door” informing residents about the July 2023 EPA hearing on the proposed well. Once the word got out, “it just kept spreading like wildfire,” said Smith. Over 100 members of the community, including both environmentalists and fossil-fuel industry workers, gathered at a local church to express their dismay in the project.In August, G2 Stem LLC withdrew their injection well proposal. Fred Gumbinner, the former manager of the company, cited “concerns raised by the company’s team of geologists and engineers that would require further study” as the reason for their withdrawal.Still, Smith and other residents of Fayette County remain vigilant, aware that the company could reapply in the future. Community members worked with Local State Representative Charity Grimm Krupa (R-Fayette County) to introduce a bill aiming to prohibit the Pennsylvanian Department of Environmental Protection from “issuing any permits or authorizations which would allow for oil and gas waste water to be injected within the Commonwealth.” Injection wells in Pennsylvania are permitted by the federal government, not the state, so the result of this type of legislation is unclear. “I do not believe that it is an acceptable risk to allow injection wells to be sited within our communities considering the severe consequences that may result if an accidental spill or leakage incident occurs,” Grimm Krupa said, in a statement introducing the legislation. The bill was referred to the Committee on Environmental Resources and Energy last month and is awaiting review.
800,000 tons of radioactive waste from Pennsylvania’s oil and gas industry has gone “missing” - — Waste from the oil and gas industry contains toxic and radioactive substances. Disposal of this waste is supposed to be carefully tracked, but 800,000 tons of oil and gas waste from Pennsylvania oil and gas wells is unaccounted for, according to a recent study. Researchers at the University of Pittsburgh and Duquesne University initially set out to investigate whether sediment in rivers and streams near landfills accepting higher volumes of oil and gas waste contained higher levels of radioactivity. But they discovered significant problems with the records meant to track this waste. “We set out to write a different paper,” Daniel Bain, an associate professor at the University of Pittsburgh and one of the authors of the study, told Environmental Health News (EHN), “but once we got into the records, we realized there was no hope of being able to meaningfully do this kind of assessment.”The study, published in the journal Ecological Indicators, compared records on Pennsylvania’s oil and gas waste from 2010-2020, and uncovered significant gaps between what oil and gas operators reported they’d sent to landfills and what the landfills reported receiving. The records were so different, the researchers couldn’t find a single case where the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s (DEP) Oil & Gas Report figures on this hazardous waste matched reports from the landfills receiving it.This type of waste often contains toxic chemicals and carcinogens, including high levels of heavy metals like arsenic, polyaromatic hydrocarbons, and radioactive materials. Previous research has shown that radioactive contaminants from fracking waste can linger in local waterways and wildlife for decades.“You assume the people regulating hazardous waste would be double-checking these records,” Bain said. “We thought they could be off by maybe 10% — we didn’t expect anything like this.” The oil and gas waste evaluated in the study originated at wells in Pennsylvania and was sent to landfills in Pennsylvania, Ohio and New York.The industry self-reports how much waste it sends to landfills, and the DEP collects that data in its annual oil and gas reports. Landfills that receive the waste weigh it and keep their own records. In some cases, the differences between these two sets of records were vast. For example, the 2019 oil and gas report said that 29,221 tons of waste were sent to the Arden landfill in Washington County, Pennsylvania, but the landfill’s records showed that it received 269,480 tons of waste that year — a difference of 240,259 tons. In total, the study found that around 800,000 tons of hazardous oil and gas waste was unaccounted for in official records. “Everything is self-reported and the [Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection] is understaffed and doesn’t have the resources to double-check,” Despite the hurdles with the landfill records, the authors of the study did detect higher levels of radioactive materials in waterways near municipal wastewater treatment plants that processed liquid runoff from landfills accepting oil and gas waste. This landfill runoff, called leachate, often goes to municipal sewage treatment plants, but when it comes from landfills accepting oil and gas waste, it can become radioactive. That’s because materials dredged up from deep in the Earth during oil and gas extraction — particularly during fracking, which requires more drilling — contain radium. Exposure to radioactive radium increases cancer risk, particularly for lung and bone cancers. “This waste is getting into our surface waters and streams,” Stolz said. “We found evidence that there’s up to four times as much radiation downstream from discharges from the municipal sewage treatment plants as upstream.”
Appalachia Gas Basis Outlook in a Pipeline-Constrained World | RBN Energy - Appalachian natural gas producers and marketers are adapting to a new status quo — a world where new pipeline takeaway capacity out of the Northeast is hard to come by and is more or less capped ad infinitum. Without the assurance of pipeline expansions, regional gas producers are no longer drilling with abandon in hopes that the capacity will eventually get built. Instead, producers are practicing restraint by slowing drilling activity, delaying completions and choking back producing wells to manage their inventory during periods of lower demand and prices. In today’s RBN blog, we consider what this new playbook will mean for pricing trends in the supply basin. Pipeline constraints are nothing new for Appalachian gas producers. Over the past decade, Appalachian natural gas production (blue line in Figure 1) rocketed up to more than 35 Bcf/d, often straining infrastructure and pummeling local price basis — at least until the next tranche of pipeline capacity came online. In recent years, however, Appalachian gas producers have settled into maintenance mode, keeping production relatively flat, even in 2022, despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the resulting energy security crisis, and low storage inventories sending supply basin gas prices rocketing to $9/MMBtu, the highest in over a decade. Among the pressures keeping production flat, producers have battled a number of headwinds since the pandemic, from inflation to shortages of materials and labor, along with hedges entered in late 2020 and 2021 that didn’t allow them to immediately benefit from the lofty gas prices seen last year. However, far and away the biggest constraint for Appalachian producers has been the increasingly grim prospects for new pipeline takeaway capacity. If we look at Northeast production and demand going back to 2010 based on interstate pipeline flow data from Wood Mackenzie (Figure 1), we can see that Northeast production (blue line) began exceeding regional demand (purple area), seasonally at first and then year-round by the end of the last decade. The Northeast has been dependent on takeaway capacity ever since. Dozens of projects — primarily reversals and expansions of legacy pipelines — were completed in the 2014-19 period that allowed Appalachian gas supply to grow. However, there’s a long-running history of environmental opposition to new hydrocarbon infrastructure development in the region, and many projects were sidelined or canceled outright along the way. Moreover, just about all of the large-scale expansions that were planned or proposed have either been completed or canceled, and new projects to add significant takeaway capacity all but dried up. All in all, the appetite for capital investment in hydrocarbons development in the Northeast largely evaporated, particularly in light of the legal challenges and expensive delays faced by past projects. While at one point large-scale pipeline projects were able to move forward, that’s now far from a given.Producers got some good news this summer: after a series of long and expensive legal battles, the last remaining tranche of large-scale pipeline capacity, Equitrans’s 2-Bcf/d Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) project, resumed construction, and the operator is targeting completion by the end of 2023. However, it took nothing short of an Act of Congress — i.e., the Fiscal Responsibility Act, which mandated and expedited completion of MVP — along with an emergency appeal to the Supreme Court and a favorable ruling from Chief Justice John Roberts to clear a path for MVP. Additionally, as we noted in our Bring It on Home blogs, when it does come online MVP won’t instantly translate to incremental production out of Appalachia, or for that matter, full utilization of the new pipeline capacity, despite the project being fully subscribed. That’s because, while there’s growing demand downstream of MVP, there are bottlenecks to get gas from MVP’s terminus at an interconnect with Williams’s Transco Pipeline to where it’s needed the most. (As we detailed in that blog series, Williams is undertaking a number of brownfield projects to expand capacity on the existing system to debottleneck deliveries into the New York area as well as to growing power markets in the Carolinas.) The other hitch is that while MVP and the related downstream expansions will allow regional production to grow by as much as 2 Bcf/d, without ongoing takeaway capacity additions producers will eventually grow into MVP and end up right back at square one — constrained.
23 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Oct 2 – 8 | Marcellus Drilling News - New shale permits issued for Oct 2 – 8 in the Marcellus/Utica were the same exact number as those issued the previous week. But wow, was there a shift in where they were issued! There were 23 new permits issued last week. Last week’s permit tally included a pathetic 4 new permits in Pennsylvania, 1 new permit in Ohio, and a whopping 18 new permits in West Virginia (after WV issued 13 the week prior). Antero was the top recipient, receiving 11 permits across two counties in WV: Doddridge and Wetzel. HG Energy received 7 permits in Lewis County, WV. ANTERO RESOURCES | ASCENT RESOURCES | DODDRIDGE COUNTY | HARRISON COUNTY | HG ENERGY | LEWIS COUNTY | OLYMPUS/HUNTLEY & HUNTLEY | WETZEL COUNTY
Fear and Anger Follow the Path of Joe Manchin’s Mountain Valley Pipeline - After years of protests and lawsuits, the natural gas pipeline is almost finished. For local residents in West Virginia and Virginia, this is how the project will affect daily life in ways large and small.This summer, in a highly unusual move, Congress stepped in to fast-track the completion of the Mountain Valley Pipeline. After years of stop-and-go construction, there’s now a mad dash to finish the natural gas line stretching just over 300 miles from the northern border of West Virginia to southern Virginia.That’s largely due to one man: West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat, who convinced other legislators and President Joe Biden to greenlight the controversial pipeline as part of a deal to raise the debt ceiling.Across a largely rural, mountainous area, the pipeline’s 50-foot easement traverses hundreds of bodies of water, crosses fields, plunges into valleys, climbs steep slopes and passes near homes, businesses and at least one school. Along many of the final stretches awaiting completion, churned-up soil and construction equipment signal busy activity.Outside Greenville, West Virginia, workers are installing pipe under water crossings on a farm belonging to Maury Johnson. In Boones Mill, Virginia, artists Steve and Anne Bernard recently watched construction less than 200 feet from their house and studio. Meanwhile, people using heavy machinery are still burying pipe on Theresa “Red” Terry’s property along the slopes of Bent Mountain, Virginia, some of the steepest terrain that the pipe is set to cross.Operator Equitrans Midstream Corp. says the project is now approximately 94% finished and will be fully built by year’s end, to carry gas from the Marcellus and Utica shale formations to customers in the mid-Atlantic and southern US.Equitrans negotiated with landowners for easements to run the line under their properties, and it had the authority to use eminent domain when no agreement could be reached. For many of the people living and working along the route, construction started years ago — and then paused, for one reason or another. In some cases, the landowners themselves played a role in the stoppages, with somelegally challenging the company’s use of eminent domain and othersperching in trees in the path of construction. Multiple environmental groups challenged the project’s federal agency authorizations, including a right of way to cross a 3.5-mile corridor of the Jefferson National Forest. The pipeline is five years behind its original schedule and its budget has swelled from $3.5 billion to $6.6 billion, in part due to the company racking up hundreds of thousands of dollars in fines for repeatedly violating state permits.Practically all new fossil fuel projects, including the Mountain Valley Pipeline, have become international flashpoints in the fight against climate change. Every new coal, natural gas and oil project collides with the scientific reality that the world needs to cut its greenhouse gas emissions to stave off worsening heat waves, floods and wildfires. But for people on the ground, these projects aren’t symbols of global battles — they have tangible impacts on the landscape, the local economy and even residents’ daily routines.Manchin has long advocated for the pipeline, arguing it is needed to increase domestic energy production, lower energy costs and benefit the constituents of his home state. He’s joked the project’s initials stand for Most Valuable Pipeline.The bargain struck in Washington means the pipeline’s completion is effectively a done deal. But it’s not clear when exactly the project will go online, given that hurdles remain in its path.
US natgas prices ease on rising output, mild forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Thursday on rising output and forecasts for mild weather through late October that will keep heating and cooling demand low. Supporting prices were a smaller than expected weekly U.S. storage build, soaring gas prices in Europe and an increase in U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline exports. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added just 84 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 6. That was less than the 88-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 125 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 93 bcf. Last week's increase boosted stockpiles to 3.529 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 4.8% above the five-year average of 3.366 tcf for the time of year. Analysts said the 163 bcf surplus over the five-year average was the smallest so far this injection season for a second week in a row. The summer injection season started on April 1 and will end on Oct. 31. Energy traders said last week's storage build was smaller than usual for this time of year due in part to rising exports. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.3 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $3.344 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Earlier in the week, the contract closed at an eight-month high. In Europe, gas prices at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in the Netherlands soared about 15% to a seven-month high of around $16 per mmBtu on worries that violence in the Middle East could reduce global supplies. Despite the small price decline, the U.S. front-month remained in technically overbought territory, with a relative strength index over 70, for a sixth day in a row for the first time since July 2022. SUPPLY AND DEMAND LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 102.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, up from 102.6 bcfd in September, but still below the monthly record of 103.1 bcfd in July. With seasonally cooler weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 94.5 bcfd this week to 96.0 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. Pipeline exports to Mexico held near 7.2 bcfd so far in October, the same as the monthly record high hit in September. Analysts expect exports to Mexico to rise even higher in coming months once New Fortress Energy's plant in Altamira starts pulling in U.S. gas to turn into liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 13.1 bcfd so far in October with the return of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's Cove Point export plant in Maryland, up from 12.6 bcfd in September. That compares with a record high of 14.0 bcfd in April.
EIA Raises Henry Hub Forecast for 4Q as Natural Gas Exports Set to Rise - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its Henry Hub spot price forecast for 4Q2023 to $3.03/MMBtu, though the agency spotlighted storage levels that remain on the high side of historical norms. EIA in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook modeled a Henry Hub spot price of $3.31 for 1Q2024, which would compare bullishly to 1Q2023 prices of $2.65. However, going back to the start of last winter, the national benchmark saw prices of $5.55 during the fourth quarter of 2022, EIA data show.In last month’s STEO, EIA predicted an average Henry Hub spot price of $2.95 for 4Q2023.
Golden Pass LNG Exec Says Infrastructure, Supply Partnerships Critical as Start Date Nears -- Golden Pass LNG is building relationships with domestic natural gas buyers and sellers as it inches closer to the possible start-up of a first train by the end of next year, according to management.The 18 million metric ton/year (mmty) liquefied natural gas export facility has been under construction southeast of Houston since early 2019. However, updates have been infrequent despite its status as one of the few substantial additions to U.S. gas demand anticipated before 2026.Chief Commercial Officer Jeff Hammad said the project’s low profile is part of its “unique” business model, as its entire capacity is subscribed to joint venture partners ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy. However, as Golden Pass nears the in-service date for its first train, Hammad said the company is.
Nearly Two Dozen LNG Projects Still Facing Uncertainty Over DOE Export Policy - Proposed U.S. and Mexican LNG facilities continue to face regulatory uncertainty roughly six months after federal regulators reaffirmed their expectations that projects should start exporting the super-chilled fuel within seven years of receiving export authorization from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Over 40 liquefied natural gas projects are advancing across North America, with the bulk proposed for the Gulf Coast. The DOE must also issue export authorizations for Mexican projects that will use U.S. feed gas. Charlie Riedl, executive director of the Center for LNG (CLNG) said nearly two dozen projects could be impacted by the DOE’s policy statement issued earlier this year.
U.S. Natural Gas Exports to Grow to 2050 as Global Energy Demand Rises, EIA Says - Primary energy use will increase globally through 2050 in all cases examined in updated projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), pointing to a rise in North American natural gas production and exports to help meet the growing demand. Meanwhile, greater adoption of non-fossil fuel-based energy resources such as nuclear and renewables will likely prove insufficient to curb an increase in global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) in the coming decades, EIA said in its 2023 International Energy Outlook (IEO) report, published Wednesday. For the latest IEO, the agency modeled outcomes through 2050 for a reference case and six side scenarios with varying assumptions on future economic growth, as well as technology and fuel prices — all based only...
A coming oil crash? Offshore permits hit 19-year low under Biden. - The Biden administration has green-lighted a record low number of new offshore oil wells, a data point that could inflame the already fierce debate over President Joe Biden’s throttling of the aging offshore oil sector in the Gulf of Mexico. An E&E News analysis of available data since the George W. Bush administration shows a steady decline in permitted offshore wells, reaching the lowest points during Biden’s tenure. The data comes as the president is facing pressure from Republicans about his domestic oil policies given the uncertain trajectory of global prices in the wake of Hamas’ attack on Israel this past weekend. The price of global benchmark Brent crude jumped 4.2 percent Monday to $88.15 a barrel. It eased slightly early Tuesday, falling 13 cents a barrel. Advertisement Permitting has been tight since Biden took office during a period of low oil prices and sluggish drilling due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Even as demand picked up and industry began to revive, the Interior Department during the president’s first two years approved 30 percent fewer oil and gas wells off the nation’s coasts compared with the same period during the Trump administration. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement permitted 105 wells in Biden’s first two years. That’s compared to approving 148 during Trump’s first two years in office and 275 when Barack Obama took office in 2009 and 2010. Experts say this decline reflects realities at sea as much as shifts in federal oil policy. The data highlight that oil companies are drilling fewer wells in the Gulf of Mexico — where almost all the U.S. offshore drilling occurs — as companies move into deeper waters where drilling is more expensive. They are also responding to tougher regulations and the constant influence of oil prices. “It really is the economics and the strategy driving these things and not government policy,” said Scott Nance, a Gulf of Mexico research analyst with Wood Mackenzie. “The bigger economic trends are what drives permitting, far more than any one administration.” But even before the outbreak of war in the Middle East, tension over U.S. oil and gas policies has been high, following the Biden administration’s decision last month to issue the smallest five-year offshore oil plan in history — one of the administration’s boldest moves to potentially curb future development. Under the plan, Interior will hold three lease sales between 2025 and 2029. Many climate activists weren’t satisfied, slamming the White House for holding any oil sales, while drillers and GOP allies of the industry said so few opportunities to buy new drilling rights will exacerbate existing pressures to reduce activity in the Gulf of Mexico and undermine national production. Holly Hopkins, vice president of upstream policy for the American Petroleum Institute, said the administration’s actions, from the constrained five-year oil plan to trying to shrink access to offshore waters for endangered species and other reasons, have a combined effect of chilling industry willingness to invest in the United States. “[Biden’s policies] make it more difficult to substantiate the long-term, capital-intensive investments required for production in the Gulf of Mexico,” she said in an email. “This is a concerning trend for the future of American energy security.”
Billions of dollars to clean up abandoned oil and gas wells will only make a dent -An infusion of federal money has helped Louisiana plug nearly 500 abandoned oil and gas wells this year. That number doesn’t come close to the 4,500 abandoned wells that pock the state’s terrain, leaving the potential for groundwater contamination and the near-certainty of greenhouse gas emissions. But the money has allowed the state to nearly double the record number of wells it’s ever plugged in a year.“Everything helps,” said Patrick Courreges, spokesperson for the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. “If we didn’t have the federal help, we’d be over 5,000 [abandoned wells].”Louisiana is among 24 states that received millions of dollars for well plugging from the federal Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which made the largest investment in legacy pollution reduction in American history.But in many ways, the difficult work is just beginning. Of the $4.7 billion the law set aside for plugging wells that oil and gas companies have abandoned, $560 million has gone out so far. The rest will be spent in the coming years.During the first round of grants, the feds didn’t require states to calculate the methane emissions each plug prevents. But from now on, states seeking grants will have to measure methane releases at each well. That will require states to develop new methods and spend more time and money. And the workforce shortage only makes it harder for states to use their grants.Long-standing state programs to tackle the problem, usually backed by fees from oil and gas companies, generally have targeted the most problematic wells, such as those with visible leaks or spills. But countless others remain, allowing methane or carcinogens to escape.“It’s easy to see a blowout. It’s tougher to see 100 small leaks,” Courreges said. “I think you’re just now seeing regulators figuring out, ‘OK, how do we approach that? How do we do that?’ Obviously, you’re probably going to need more funding for everybody.”In Louisiana, the state generally has $10 million to $12 million available each year for well site restoration efforts, Courreges said. The state received $25 million in its first round of federal funding from the infrastructure law and is primed to receive some $86 million more.A well is considered orphaned when the government cannot locate the operator of an idled well or the operator is unable to plug or remediate the well. Beyond blighting property and limiting land use, abandoned wells are a major threat because unseen leaks can allow pollutants into water sources and spew greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.The federal government gave states wide latitude on how to prioritize wells for plugging. Aggressive timelines have pushed qualifying states to quickly allocate their first round of grant funds by hiring contractors to plug abandoned oil and gas wells.“The timeline was so tight that these guys just went out and started plugging wells without any idea,” said Curtis Shuck, chair of the Well Done Foundation, an environmental nonprofit. “They just knew it was a hole in the ground and they were going to go dump cement in it and call it a party.”
ExxonMobil agrees to buy shale rival Pioneer in $60 billion deal — ExxonMobil has agreed to buy Pioneer Natural Resources, a major shale oil producer in the deal that will more than double Exxon’s footprint in the Permian Basin in the Southwest United States. Though it’s the largest US oil company, ExxonMobil was relatively slow to develop shale oil as the rest of the industry used to to greatly increase US oil production in the last decade. Pioneer is the largest producer in the Permian Basin, with 850,000 net acres in the area around Midland, Texas, with ExxonMobil’s 570,000 net acres in the Delaware and Midland Basins. ExxonMobil’s Permian production volume would more than double to the equivalent of 1.3 million barrels of oil a day, according to the company. “Pioneer is a clear leader in the Permian with a unique asset base and people with deep industry knowledge. The combined capabilities of our two companies will provide long-term value creation well in excess of what either company is capable of doing on a standalone basis,” said ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods. Under the deal Pioneer shareholders would receive 2.3234 shares of ExxonMobil for each Pioneer share, an 8% premium based on Tuesday’s closing price. Shares of Pioneer were up about 2% in premarket trading on the news, while shares of ExxonMobil were lower. But the deal could face regulatory hurdles. The Biden administration has taken a much more critical position on approving mergers than past administrations, challenging some deals on antitrust grounds. And it has also been critical of big oil for high oil and gas prices, even though those prices are primarily set on global markets, not by the oil companies themselves.
Exxon Mobil doubles down on fossil fuels with $59.5 billion deal for Pioneer Natural as prices surge -- Exxon Mobil is buying Pioneer Natural Resources in an all-stock deal valued at $59.5 billion, its largest buyout since acquiring Mobil two decades ago, creating a colossal fracking operator in West Texas. Including debt, Exxon is committing about $64.5 billion to the acquisition, leaving no doubt of the Texas energy company’s commitment to fossil fuels as energy prices surge. Pioneer shareholders will receive 2.32 shares of Exxon for each Pioneer share they own. “I think fossil fuels, as the world looks to transition and find lower sources of affordable energy with lower emissions, fossil fuels oil and gas are going to continue to play a role over time,” Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods said during an interview with CNBC. “That may diminish with time. The rate of that is, I think, not very clear at this stage. But it will be around for a long time.” Woods explained that Exxon and Pioneer will be able to use their combined capabilities to drive down emissions and produce lower carbon intensity oil and gas. Exxon purchased XTO Energy in 2009 for approximately $36 billion. In the late 1990s, the merger between Exxon and Mobil was valued around $80 billion. The deal with Pioneer Natural vastly expands Exxon’s presence in the Permian Basin, a massive oilfield that straddles the border between Texas and New Mexico. Drilling the Permian accounted for 18% of all U.S. natural gas production last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Pioneer’s more than 850,000 net acres in the Midland Basin will be combined with Exxon’s 570,000 net acres in the Delaware and Midland Basin, nearly contiguous fields that will allow the combined company to trim costs. Woods said in prepared remarks that the combined company will have an estimated Permian resource of 16 billion oil equivalent barrels, with 15 to 20 years of remaining inventory. Natural gas rigs in operation have declined over 26% in the U.S. since the start of the year, according to government data, largely due to the rising costs for drilling materials and labor over the past two years. “Their tier-one acreage is highly contiguous, allowing for greater opportunities to deploy our technologies, delivering operating and capital efficiency as well as significantly increasing production,” Woods said of Pioneer in a statement. Once the deal closes, Exxon Permian production volume will more than double to 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, based on 2023 volumes. It’s expected to climb to about 2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2027. Woods said that by 2027, about 60% of the combined company’s production will come from low-cost, high-growth strategic assets, including the Permian, Guyana, Brazil, and LNG, with total production of more than 5 million oil equivalent barrels per day.
ExxonMobil Creating Permian Juggernaut with Pioneer Natural Merger Valued at $59.5B - As has been speculated for months, ExxonMobil on Wednesday agreed to buy Permian Basin pure-play Pioneer Natural Resources Co. in a mega all-stock transaction valued at $59.5 billion. The implied total enterprise value, including net debt, is estimated at $64.5 billion.“Pioneer is a clear leader in the Permian, with a unique asset base and people with deep industry knowledge,” ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said. “The combined capabilities of our two companies will provide long-term value creation well in excess of what either company is capable of doing on a standalone basis. Their tier-one acreage is highly contiguous, allowing for greater opportunities to deploy our technologies, delivering operating and capital efficiency as well as significantly increasing...
GOP Legislators Urge FERC to Approve TC’s GTN Xpress Natural Gas Pipeline - Eight Republican lawmakers are imploring FERC to grant final approval to TC Energy Corp.’s proposed Gas Transmission Northwest, aka GTN Xpress, natural gas pipeline. The long awaited project would add 150,000 Dth/d of capacity to TC’s GTN system, which serves the Pacific Northwest and Malin interconnect markets. GTN spans 1,377 miles and can supply up to 2.7 Bcf/d from resources in Western Canada and the Rocky Mountains to utilities, power generation facilities, and residential and commercial customers. In a letter to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the legislators, who represent California, Idaho, Oregon and North Dakota, urged commissioners to grant TC a certificate of public convenience and necessity (CPCN) for the expansion.
Newsom signs Orphan Well Prevention Act, AB 1167, vetoes SB 842, bill weakening price gouging law — Climate, environmental, consumer and labor groups celebrated a victory today after Governor Newsom signed AB 1167, the Orphan Well Prevention Act authored by Assemblymember Wendy Carrillo. The act will require oil companies to take out full bonding to cover the clean up cost of idle and marginally-producing wells when they are transferred in ownership, helping to solve the growing orphan well crisis in California. according to a statement from a coalition of organizations. The bill’s signing took place as oil production in California has declined in recent years as the once huge crude oil reserves are being depleted. The state has declined from being the number three producer of crude oil in the nation to the seventh largest. “I am signing Assembly Bill 1167, which creates a process requiring the State Oil and Gas Supervisor to approve transfers of marginal oil and gas wells only once the full cost of well plugging and abandonment and site restoration is covered by a bond or other financial assurance mechanisms,” said Governor Newsom in his signing statement. “I share the author's desire to minimize the risk that the state will be liable for costs of plugging and abandonment of orphaned and abandoned oil and gas wells where operators failed to provide sufficient financial assurances. This bill helps achieve this objective,” he stated. However, Newson noted that increasing the financial assurances required for oil and gas well transfers “also potentially creates risk of current oil and gas well operators deserting these hazardous wells.” “I look forward to working with the Legislature to enact legislation to make any necessary revisions to address this risk and otherwise align this law with programs that the Department of Conversation's Geologic Energy Management Division is already developing to address orp aned and abandoned wells,” he added. Environment California last week released a new interactive map to show the breakdown of idle and orphan wells and the threats wells posed to groundwater in California by county, Senate and Assembly district, as well as estimated costs for clean up, the groups noted.The groups said there are currently about 5,400 orphan wells in California — idle wells that owners have abandoned their responsibility to clean up — leaving them for California taxpayers to address. “Current bonding rules only require oil companies to take out a minimal bond to cover the cost of cleaning up oil wells at the end of their life, sometimes amounting to as little as a few hundred dollars per well,” the groups stated. “However, the average cost statewide to clean up a well according to the California Council on Science and Technology is $68,000.” With nearly 70,000 idle and marginally-producing wells across the state, many at high risk of becoming orphaned, taxpayers are vulnerable to pay exorbitant fees to clean up wells that rightfully should be paid by the companies responsible for the oil wells, the groups noted.
U.S. crude oil exports reached a record high in first half of 2023 – EIA - U.S. crude oil exports in the first half of 2023 averaged 3.99 million barrels per day (b/d), which is a record high for the first half of a year since 2015, when the U.S. ban on most crude oil exports from the United States was repealed. In the first half of 2023, crude oil exports were up 650,000 b/d (19%) compared with the first half of 2022.Europe was the largest regional destination for U.S. crude oil exports by volume, at 1.75 million b/d, led by exports to the Netherlands and UK. Asia was the regional destination with the next-highest volume, at 1.68 million b/d, led by exports to China and South Korea. The United States also exported significantly smaller volumes of crude oil to Canada, Africa, and Central America and South America.Although exports increased in the first half of 2023, the United States still imports more crude oil than it exports, meaning it remains a net crude oil importer. The United States continues to import crude oil despite rising domestic crude oil production in part because many U.S. refineries are configured to process heavy, sour crude oil (with a lowAPI gravity and high sulfur content) rather than the light, sweet crude oil (with a high API gravity and low sulfur content) typically produced in the United States.U.S. crude oil imports come primarily from historical trading partners such as Mexico and Canada. Heavy, sour grades of crude oil are often discounted compared with light, sweet grades of crude oil because they require more complex refinery units to produce profitable yields of refined products such as motor gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Most U.S. crude oil imports take place when it is more profitable for U.S. refiners to process discounted heavier grades because those refineries have already invested in the additional complexity required to refine them. The rapid increase in U.S. domestic production in the early 2010s increased domestic light, sweet crude oil production. Light, sweet grades of crude oil traditionally benefit from a price premium in the global crude oil market because they yield high amounts of profitable petroleum products from less complex refining processes.Some U.S. refiners on the Gulf Coast have invested in expanding their light, sweet crude oil processing capacity. However, for many refiners, particularly in the Midwest and along the Gulf Coast, refining discounted heavy, sour crude oil grades remains more profitable.
Northern Mexico Needs Pipelines to Meet Growing Natural Gas Demand, Says Expert - Northern Mexico needs additional natural gas infrastructure to meet rising energy demand, energy lawyer Alain Duthoy told NGI’s Mexico GPI. “The recent announcements of more natural gas capacity and supply are positive, but there is still a lack of infrastructure in place to distribute it to the companies and industries that need it,” he said. Duthoy, who has led the legal practice for Lexoil’s legal practice since 2018, specializes in energy law and providing legal services to industry clients. Based in Monterrey, Duthoy is also a co-founder of the Nuevo León Energy Cluster, which is an association and advocacy group for members of the state’s energy industry. Additionally, he lectures at the University of Monterrey, UDEM, and teaches undergraduate law students...
‘Time Is Running Out’ on Colombia Natural Gas Market as Supply Shortfall Looms - Colombia needs to expand domestic natural gas production and/or add more LNG import capacity to avoid a potential gas supply deficit, energy experts are warning. “Currently, Colombia is on course to run short of domestic gas this decade, with a gap between gas supply, including import capacity, and demand of 560 MMcf/d projected for 2030,” Wood Mackenzie analysts said in a recent report. Substantial offshore gas deposits could provide a lifeline to South America’s second-most populous country, but several challenges must be overcome first, the consultancy found. Development of the Gorgon, Uchuva and Orca discoveries would need to reach a breakeven point range of $6-7.00/Mcf to help avoid a future demand gap, researchers said. “This is a substantial challenge..."
EU’s Full Gas Storage Doesn’t Eliminate Supply Risks --The European Union has accumulated record amounts of natural gas in its storage facilities and has done so ahead of its own schedule.The news about the advanced fill-up of storage caverns was first announced in August by Brussels with understandable pride. In mid-August, storage was full at 90%, which was the November target.But energy suppliers did not stop there because, as of early October, gas storage in the EU is close to 100% full. There is just one slight problem: it might still not be enough to secure winter gas supply.Last year, European countries saw a milder-than-usual winter for most of the heating season, which was a welcome manifestation of climate change given the concerns about the sufficiency of gas in storage. In the end, much of the gas bought at exorbitant prices during the summer remained in storage unused because of the weather.Even with the mild winter and the full storage, however, European governments imposed energy austerity measures on large consumers. This year will be no different. Storage may be full to the brim, but there will be energy savings initiatives—including mandatory ones—recently voted in Germany. Because one thing that commentators often forget when they talk about European gas storage is that it does not cover 100% of consumption.The storage capacity for natural gas in the European Union actually covers about a third of demand, according to the EU itself. There is space to store up to 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas in the bloc and that is 33% of what it consumes—far from enough if we are talking about supply security.Because storage can only cover a third of European consumption—or perhaps a little more if we assume energy austerity measures will work as well this year as they did last year—European countries will need to continue importing liquefied natural gas through the winter. Unless, of course, Europe gets lucky with climate change again and has another unusually warm winter.European officials have been busy this past year to find ways to enhance gas supply security. There was the agreement for joint gas buying, which seems to be working so well Brussels is considering making it a permanent fixture of EU life. There were talks about buying more gas from Azerbaijan, but that kind of fell through after the latest events in Nagorno-Karabakh.Meanwhile, demand for gas in the European Union has declined by between 10% and 15% over the past 12 months thanks to government efforts—and prices. According to Reuters’s John Kemp, there is little chance for a recovery in demand given that it has remained subdued this year as well, despite greater supply security.Just how vulnerable Europe’s supply of gas is was demonstrated recently by price movements amid the labor dispute at Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG projects in Australia. Europe is not a big buyer of Australian LNG, but Australia is the world’s largest exporter and any disruption in Australian supply disrupts global supply.So, when workers at the Chevron projects began striking, prices for gas in Europe surged, adding 13% in a single day. In fairness, they are still nowhere near where they were in the summer of 2022, but a 13% daily price rise is still considerable.Interestingly, prices are currently higher than they were when the Chevron workers started striking in September. Then, the first day of striking saw Europe’s benchmark TTF price rise to 34.50 euro per megawatt-hour. Now, the front-month TTF contract, per Reuters, is trading at 38 euro per MWh, while the January delivery contract is trading at 44 euro.This is the price of reliance on a global market for liquefied natural gas that, as we saw last year, can quite easily turn into a sellers’ market whatever plans buyers might have, including a buyers’ cartel. Last year, Europe priced poorer countries out of the market, pushing them back to coal. Yet, while this might be dubious from a climate change fighting perspective, it was the natural thing to do for Europe: secure energy supply. This year, Europe appears to be content in the knowledge its gas storage caverns are full, and with average seasonal drawdowns at less than 600 TWh, the chances of a shortage are slim. Of course, there is also the lower energy consumption by industrial users, which may be positive for gas storage levels but is negative from an economic growth perspective, yet it is not drawing much attention, at least from European officials. Commentators do pay attention, however. In a September column about the reduction in industrial gas consumption, Reuters’ Kemp spelled it out quite simply. Noting the significant reduction in consumption, which has enhanced supply security for the winter months, he went on to write that “the region has paid a high price in terms of reduced manufacturing activity, which could lead to permanent deindustrialization unless gas prices are reduced significantly within the next couple of years.”
Finland Investigating Cause of Balticonnector Pipeline Damage – Damage to the subsea Balticonnector natural gas pipeline that links Estonia and Finland was likely caused by “external activity,” Finland President Sauli Niinistö said Tuesday. A leak forced operators to shut the system down over the weekend, and repairs could take months.“The cause of the damage is not yet clear, the investigation continues in cooperation between Finland and Estonia,” Niinistö said, adding that he has been in contact with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for possible assistance with the investigation.The leak on the 92 Bcf/year Balticonnector comes roughly a year after the Nord Stream natural gas system linking Russia and Europe ruptured after it was sabotaged following Russia’s invasion...
A Baltic Sea gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia is shut down over a suspected leak(AP) — Finland and Estonia said Sunday that the undersea Balticconnector gas pipeline running between the two countries across the Baltic Sea was temporarily taken out of service due to a suspected leak. Gasgrid Finland and Elering, the Finnish and Estonian gas system operators, said they noted an unusual drop in pressure in the pipeline shortly before 2 a.m. Sunday, after which they shut down the gas flow. “Based on observations, it was suspected that the offshore pipeline between Finland and Estonia was leaking,” Gasgrid Finland said in a statement. “The valves in the offshore pipeline are now closed and the leak is thus stopped.” The Finnish operator gave no reason for the suspected leak and said it was investigating the incident together with Elering. If it turns out that the detected pressure drop is due to a leak that has caused damage to the pipeline, repair work could take “at least several months” depending on the nature of the damage, according to Gasgrid Finland. In September 2022, the Nord Stream gas pipelines running between Germany and Russia in the Baltic Sea were hit by explosions in an incident deemed to be a sabotage. A total of four gas leaks were discovered on the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines. The case remains unsolved.
Poland takes over Gazprom stake in key pipeline and major oil and gas producer - Authorities in Poland have fully kicked out Russian gas giant Gazprom from a key transit natural gas pipeline, the Yamal Pipeline. It comes as the country’s largest oil and gas producer Orlen has been assigned to take over the Gazprom’s interest in Europol Gaz. Europol Gaz is the owner of the Polish 680-kilometre segment of the Yamal Pipeline that start in Russia and crosses Belarus and Poland before connecting to the gas transmission network in Germany. Gazprom had the 48% interest in Europol Gaz, with the stake of similar size in hands of Polish PGNiG which is now a part of the Orlen group. However, soon after the Russian invasion into Ukraine in February last year, authorities in Poland sanctioned Gazprom and suspended its shareholder rights in Europol Gaz, imposing temporary administration on its equity holdings. The Yamal Pipeline can carry about 33 billion cubic metres of Russian gas.
War, Labor Strikes and Possible Sabotage Spook LNG Market as Winter Nears - Israel’s war against Hamas has done little so far to disrupt global natural gas supply balances, but a confluence of factors have combined in a short period of time to shatter the perceived sense of calm that had prevailed over the market heading into winter.“I don’t think fundamentals have changed at all, however, sentiment has,” said Marex’s Toby Copson, a managing director and head of Asia-Pacific energy. “Conflicts spook markets, and coupled with the damage to the European pipeline and fears of shipping lanes being affected, the market is pricing in these disruptions.” Natural gas prices in Asia and Europe are at their highest levels in about six months. The prompt Dutch Title Transfer Facility contract has gained 40% since Israel’s declaration of war...
Israel just shut a gas field near Gaza. Here's why that matters - - Chevron said Monday that it had shut down a natural gas field off the coast of Israel at the behest of local officials, two days after Hamas militants launched their deadly assault on the country.The Tamar field, located 15 miles off Israel's southern coast, meets 70% of Israel's energy needs for power generation, according to the US energy company.A prolonged shutdown could lead to a drop in Israeli gas exports to its neighbors, Egypt and Jordan, as well as squeeze an already tight global gas market.For now, Chevron (CVX) continues to supply its customers in Israel and the region with gas from the larger Leviathan platform."Chevron is focused on the safe and reliable supply of natural gas for the benefit of the Israeli domestic market and our regional customers," Chevron spokesperson Sally Jones said in a statement. "Our top priority is the safety of our personnel, the communities in which we operate, the environment and our facilities."Jones said Chevron was "instructed" by Israel's Ministry of Energy to stop production at the Tamar platform.The closure of Tamar comes just as countries in the northern hemisphere head toward winter, when demand for natural gas to heat homes increases.Futures prices on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility — Europe's benchmark gas exchange — jumped 12% Tuesday to hit nearly €49 ($52) per megawatt hour. They have risen by a total of 29% since Friday, the last trading day before Hamas launched its unprecedented attack on Israel.Still, prices are far below their levels this time last year, when they hit €169 ($179) per megawatt hour, as Europe emerged from its energy crisis sparked by Russia's war in Ukraine.Analysts at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie attribute the price rises since Friday mostly to the unfolding conflict in Israel.Goldman Sachs analysts think the Tamar shutdown has "contributed" to the rally in European gas prices."Going forward, should the ongoing events evolve into a more sustained tightening of global LNG balances, this will reduce Europe's gas markets' ability to handle other unforeseen events, such as cold weather spikes, or other supply disruptions," they wrote in a note Monday.But Simone Tagliapietra, a senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank, points to two factors that he believes are more important in driving European prices higher.One is a temporary shutdown of a gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea, and the other is planned industrial action by liquefied natural gas (LNG) workers in Australia, he told CNN.On Sunday, Finland's gas transmission operator announced that it had closed a key pipeline in the Baltic Sea transporting gas between Finland and Estonia due to a suspected leak. Then, on Tuesday, Chevron said it had received notice of strikes by some workers at two of its LNG facilities in Australia. If the strikes, scheduled for later this month, go ahead, they will disrupt production at Chevron's Wheatstone and Gorgon sites, which account for about 7% of global LNG supply, according to Wood Mackenzie. A drawn-out shutdown at Tamar might add to the upward pull on European gas prices, Tagliapietra said, as it could force Israel to procure gas from the global market, fueling competition for exports."That might put upward pressure on the European gas price," he said.However, all in all, the consequences for the global gas market would be "very limited," he added, because Israel isn't a major supplier.
Israel reroutes gas exports to Egypt via Jordan All Israeli gas pipeline exports to Egypt have been redirected via the FAJR gas pipeline that runs through Jordan, Chevron said late last night, after flows via the East Mediterranean Gas (EMG) pipeline halted. Chevron shut down the 285bn m³ Tamar gas field, which also supplies Egypt with gas, on 9 October, on the instruction of the Israeli energy ministry. Islamist group Hamas launched an attack on Israel early on 7 October. But the larger 620bn m³ Leviathan offshore gas field appeared to remain operational as of this afternoon. Israel has already used the Jordanian route to supply gas to Egypt in recent years. Deliveries via the country started in 2022 in an effort to bypass pipeline constraints within the Israeli transmission system at Ashkelon, which led to flows along the EMG pipeline being capped below the 5bn m³/yr capacity of the line. The port of Ashkelon was also closed yesterday. Chevron had previously shut down production from the Tamar field on 12-21 May 2021. Gas deliveries to Egypt from Israel fell by 86mn m³ in May 2021 to 273mn m³ from a month earlier that year, and then rose again to 375mn m³ in June, according to data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi) (see table). It remains unclear how much of an effect Tamar being off line could have on Egyptian imports, because the majority of Israeli gas for export is sourced from Leviathan. Egyptian import volumes from Israel have also doubled since 2021(see imports graph). Egypt exported its first LNG cargo since July on 6 October, as falling domestic output and increased domestic demand led to Egypt curbing use of gas for re-export as LNG.
IEA Sees China Driving Global LNG Demand Growth as Mature Gas Markets Have ‘Peaked’ Global natural gas demand is set to expand at a slower pace over the coming years, with most of the growth coming from China and other emerging Asian markets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Tuesday. In its latest medium-term gas market forecast, the global energy watchdog said it expects worldwide demand to rise every year by 1.6% on average between 2022 and 2026, down from 2.5% between 2017 and 2021. “After their heyday between 2011 and 2021, the world’s gas markets have entered a new and more uncertain period that is likely to be characterized by slower growth and higher volatility – and could lead to a peak in global demand by the end of this decade,” said IEA’s Keisuke Sadamori, director of energy markets and security. “Different trends are playing...
UN-led FSO Safer operation safely concludes oil transfer, averts catastrophe - Reinsurance News - In a remarkable achievement, the United Nations-led FSO Safer operation has successfully concluded the transfer of oil from the FSO Safer, averting a potential environmental and humanitarian catastrophe of unprecedented proportions. “I welcome the news that the transfer of oil from the FSO Safer has been safely concluded today. The United Nations-led operation has prevented what could have been an environmental and humanitarian catastrophe on a colossal scale,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.“Today is a proud moment for the many people across the UN System as well as our donors and partners who have worked tirelessly over the past months and years to avert a disaster in a country already vulnerable following protracted conflict. There is still work to be done, but today we can say with confidence that the immediate threat of a spill has been averted,” said UNDP Administrator, Achim Steiner.“It reminds us of why we exist as the UN, to tackle some of the world’s most difficult problems, using our convening power to bring together the international community to solve seemingly impossible challenges,” said Mohammed Siddig Madawi, Safer Coordinator and Adviser, UNDP on this news.More than 100 underwriters had been involved in the successful binding of insurance coverage for the FSO Safer operation, enabling the UN to proceed with an emergency ship-to-ship transfer to avert an oil spill that would amount to one of the world’s largest man-made environmental disasters in history. UN Resident Coordinator for Yemen, David Gressly, who has been working on the project for over a year, said the worst-case scenario has been avoided, but this is not the end of the story.
2 shipping companies face first sanctions over Russian oil shipments - In an announcement, the department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) said that a ship owned by Turkish company Ice Pearl Navigation sold Russian oil at $80 a barrel, above the $60 limit imposed by the U.S., the European Union, Australia and the Group of 7. The second company, UAE-based Lumber Marine SA, priced Russian oil at $75, according to the OFAC. The sanctions will bar the companies, both of which used U.S. service providers in violating the price cap, from conducting business in the U.S. or accessing their properties or assets in the country. The price cap was imposed in 2022 in retaliation for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with a goal of reducing Russian energy profits while maintaining reliable supplies to international markets. Treasury officials claim the cap has cost Russia’s oil industry 45 percent in tax revenue since its imposition. Under the cap, western countries are also banned from providing maritime and financial services for Russian exports above the cap. “Today’s action demonstrates our continued commitment to reduce Russia’s resources for its war against Ukraine and to enforce the price cap,” Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo said in a statement. “We remain committed to implementing a price cap policy that has two goals: reducing the oil profits upon which Russia relies to wage its unjust war against Ukraine and keeping global energy markets stable and well-supplied despite turbulence caused by Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. We will continue to take actions to achieve these two goals.” Yasa Holding, which operates the Turkish vessel, the Golden Bosphorus, has said the ship is under a charter to ExxonMobil for between three months and five months. The Hill has reached out to ExxonMobil for comment.
Russia's oil exports cuts include oil products: Deputy PM, Russia -- Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that Russia's pledges to the OPEC+ group to cut its oil exports included a reduction in oil products, news agencies reported, stoking confusion over Russia's plans to reduce oil supplies. In the original announcement of the plans to cut oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day by year-end, Novak had not mentioned oil products but had spoken only about oil. "When we talk about the oil market and production, oil is produced and then supplied for processing. Therefore, of course, everything is considered together. The final product, of course, takes into account the volumes that are produced," Novak said in response to a question on whether oil products were included in the export reductions, according to Interfax news agency. It would be easier for Moscow to cut overall exports of crude oil and fuel after Russia announced on Sept. 21 a ban on fuel exports to tackle domestic shortages and high prices. It lifted the ban for most oil products last week.
China restricts refined oil product exports despite oil inventory increase of 0.7 mbpd During the first three quarters of 2023, China has continued expanding its crude inventories by an estimated 0.7 million barrels per day (mbpd). These increased inventories could allow China to maintain strong exports of refined products even if crude oil imports are lowered. China does not reveal changes to its crude oil inventories, but an estimate can be made using official statistics. We have used import and export data from China’s General Administration of Customs, oil production and refinery statistics from China’s National Bureau of Statistics and ship movement data from Oceanbolt in order to estimate oil movements in and out of China. From January to September, we estimate that China’s crude oil production reached 4.2 mbpd (up 2% y/y). In the same period, imports hit 11.3 mbpd (up 14% y/y). This allowed China’s refineries to increase their refined volumes by 11% y/y to 14.8 mbpd and expand exports of refined products to 1.2 mbpd, an increase of 28%. At 15.5 mbpd, total oil supply was 0.7 mbpd higher than refined volumes, allowing China to increase its crude oil inventories accordingly. VLCC and Aframax ships have seen the highest increase in demand due to China’s increased crude oil imports. VLCC tonne miles into China have risen by 38% y/y while Aframax tonne miles have risen by 70% due to an increase in volumes from Russia. For the rest of the year, Chinese crude oil imports, however, appear likely to fall. It seems that Chinese authorities will not release any additional crude oil import quotas to independent refineries. The 2023 quotas will thus end at 203.6 metric tonnes, up 10% y/y, and are expected to constrain import volumes during the 4th quarter. At the same time, no further export quotas for refined products are expected. Exports of refined products are therefore expected to suffer and may fall to only 0.7 mbpd during the 4th quarter compared to the 1.2 mbpd during the first three quarters. MR product tanker ships carry about 50% of China’s refined product exports and must be expected to bear the brunt of the export reduction. Should China want to, exports of refined oil products could continue at the year-to-date level without expanding the crude oil import quota. Releasing about 25% of the 0.7 mbpd so far added to crude oil inventories could allow refined product exports to remain at 1.2 mbpd, also in the fourth quarter.
OPEC Oil Production Rises In September - OPEC's crude oil production rose in September compared to August, according to the group's latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) published on Thursday. According to the MOMR, OPEC's crude oil production rose to 27.755 million bpd in September—up 273,000 bpd from the 27.482 million bpd the group produced in August. Based on the report's secondary sources, the largest increase in production was from Nigeria, which saw a 141,000 bpd increase month over month. Saudi Arabia also saw a production increase, of 82,000 bpd. Other OPEC members saw an increase, although smaller, including Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, and the UAE. But some members saw their production decline like Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Venezuela—the latter of which saw its production fall by 25,000 bpd to 733,000 bpd, the lowest level since April 2023. Saudi Arabia's September production rose to 9.006 million bpd. The country's quota—which includes The Kingdom's 1 million bpd voluntary production cut quota—is 9 million bpd. Iran's September production, which rose to 3.058 million bpd, was the highest in years as the United States struggles to keep its oil revenues in check through sanctions, in a sign that the country is on its way to restoring production to pre-sanction levels. OPEC members Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE reaffirmed their commitment to "collective and individual voluntary adjustments" to oil production after meeting on the sidelines of the UN MENA climate week last weekend. The members also said it would be willing to take "additional measures at any time" to support market stability. The group's current production quota agreement runs through the end of next year, but Saudi Arabia's extra 1 million bpd production cut runs through the end of this year and will then be subject to monthly reviews.
OPEC hikes long-term oil demand outlook — in stark contrast to other predictions of peak crude - OPEC on Monday raised its medium- and long-term forecasts for global oil demand. The oil producer group said the crude sector would require a whopping $14 trillion in investment if it is to meet this upswing, even amid a rapid expansion of renewable energy technologies. OPEC’s long-term forecast for global oil demand diverges from that of the International Energy Agency, the world’s leading energy watchdog. OPEC and the IEA, both big names in the energy industry, are currently locked in a war of words over peak oil demand. In its 2023 World Oil Outlook, OPEC said it expects global demand to reach 116 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2045, up from 99.6 million bpd in 2022 and roughly 6 million more bpd than it predicted in last year’s report. OPEC made clear that there’s potential for this jump to be even higher, too. The growth is likely to be fueled by India, China, other Asian countries, Africa, and the Middle East. For its long-term oil demand forecast to be met, OPEC said oil sector investments of $14 trillion, or around $610 billion on average per year, would be needed. The group said it is “vital” that these investments are delivered, saying it is beneficial to both producers and consumers. In the medium term, OPEC said global oil demand was likely to reach a level of 110.2 million bpd in 2028, reflecting a jump of 10.6 million bpd when compared to 2022 levels. “Recent developments have led the OPEC team to reassess just what each energy can deliver, with a focus on pragmatic and realistic options and solutions,” OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais said in a foreword to the report. “Calls to stop investments in new oil projects are misguided and could lead to energy and economic chaos,” al-Ghais said. “History is replete with numerous examples of turmoil that should serve as a warning for what occurs when policymakers fail to acknowledge energy’s interwoven complexities.” OPEC’s forecasts contrast starkly with those of the IEA, which said last month that the world was now at the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era.In an op-ed published in the Financial Times, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said for the first time that demand for coal, oil and gas would all peak before 2030, with fossil fuel consumption then predicted to fall as climate policies take effect. Birol’s assessment is based on the IEA’s World Energy Outlook, an influential report which is due out in October. The IEA chief hailed the forecast as a “historic turning point” but made clear that the projected declines would be “nowhere near enough” to put the world on a path to limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.This temperature threshold is widely regarded as critical to avoiding the worst impacts of climate change. The burning of fossil fuels is the chief driver of the climate crisis.OPEC was sharply critical of the IEA’s forecast of peak fossil fuel demand before the end of the decade. The group said in a statement published Sept. 14 that the IEA’s narrative was “extremely risky,” “impractical” and “ideologically driven.” OPEC has previously urged the IEA to be “very careful” about undermining industry investments.
OPEC predicts world oil demand will rise until 2045 - The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has predicted that world oil demand will rise to 116 million bpd by 2045, a larger prediction than its 2022 estimate. In its 2023 World Oil Outlook report, released on 9 October 2023, OPEC also stated that US$14 trillion of investment in oil will be needed by 2045 to meet demand. OPEC’s estimates contrast strongly with forecasts made by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has predicted that global oil demand will peak before 2030. While launching the report in Riyadh, Saudi Arabi, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais claimed that many nations are showing resistance to net-zero policies. "Over the past year what is clear is that we have seen populations voice concerns about the costs and actual benefits of net-zero targets," he said. Continued investment in oil could bring significant financial benefit to OPEC member states, whose members make billions of dollars per year from the oil industry. As such, the organisation has continually shown hesitancy about divesting from oil. Al Ghais reiterated this view in Riyadh, stating: "Calls to stop investments in new oil projects are misguided and could lead to energy and economic chaos. "There are some who unfortunately continue to push the extremely risky narrative of dismissing oil with talk of oil demand dropping by almost 25 million bpd by the year 2030," he added. OPEC’s report states that global oil demand will rise from 2023’s 102 million bpd to 110.2 million by 2028. OPEC's estimates have increased from its 2022 predictions; its 2022 report estimated demand would reach 106.9 million bpd by 2027, while the latest report predicts 109 million bpd of demand by 2027.
'Knee-jerk surge': Oil experts predict market impact of Israel-Hamas conflict -- Crude oil prices could see a spike on Monday but the overall impact of the attack on Israel by Palestinian militants Hamas will likely be limited, energy experts told CNBC. That’s provided the conflict does not escalate further, they said. “We may see a knee-jerk surge in crude prices when markets open on Monday,” Vandana Hari, CEO of Vanda Insights, told CNBC via email. “There will be some risk premium factored in as a default, until the market is satisfied that the event is not setting off a chain reaction and Mideast oil and gas supplies won’t be affected,” said Hari. Militants from Hamas infiltrated Israel by land, sea and air on Saturday, during a major Jewish holiday. The incursion came hours after the Islamist militants fired thousands of rockets into Israel from Gaza. Civilians including women, children and the elderly have been abducted, and others killed in their homes, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said. Israel has begun the offensive phase, and will “continue with neither limitations nor respite until the objectives are achieved,” Netanyahu said. He vowed to “exact an immense price from the enemy, within the Gaza Strip as well.” Late Saturday, Israel cut off the supply of electricity, fuel and goods to the narrow strip where 2.3 million Palestinians live. At the time of publication, there were at least 250 Israelis killed and more than 1,860 injured, including 320 in serious condition, NBC News reported. The Palestinian Health Ministry recorded 256 deaths and 1,790 injuries in Gaza. How much oil is involved? Both Israel and Palestine are not major oil players, but the conflict sits in a wider key oil producing region, analysts told CNBC, warning that it has the potential to conflagrate further. Hari noted that while the conflict does not directly impact oil production or supply, it is still “on the doorstep of an important oil-producing and exporting region.” Israel boasts two oil refineries with a combined capacity of almost 300,000 barrels per day. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the country has “virtually no crude oil and condensate production.” The Palestinian territories produce no oil, data from EIA shows. “The impact on the oil price will be limited unless we see the ‘war’ between the two sides expand quickly to a regional war where the U.S. and Iran and other supporters of the parties get directly involved,” Middle East managing director of energy consultancy Facts Global Energy, Iman Nasseri, told CNBC. Similarly, French businessman and hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand said that since the Levant is not a large oil producing region, the war is unlikely to impact oil supply in the short term. “One should not expect a large oil price spike in the coming days. But it could eventually have an impact on supply and prices,” he said in a post on X, the social media platform that was formerly Twitter.
Markets whipsaw, oil prices rise as Israel declares war on Hamas - The surprise attack on Israel by Hamas over the weekend and the resulting declaration of war by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are weighing on financial markets and unsettling commodity prices as the global economy braces for military and diplomatic fallout. Stocks of energy and defense companies rose sharply Monday while shares of airlines and resorts tumbled as investors weighed reports of escalating military action. Major U.S. stock indices opened lower on the news Monday morning, with the S&P 500 losing half a percentage point in early trading, falling to 4,285. The index closed up 0.6 percent at 4,334. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index was down more than 100 points to 13,321, before also closing up 52 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 85 points in early trading before rebounding to finish 197 points up. International equities followed suit, with the German DAX falling 100 points in afternoon trading. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44 percent to close at 3,096 on Monday. A sharp increase in oil prices was a major force behind Monday’s market movements. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped 4.31 percent to hit $86.36 after falling in recent weeks. Brent crude also popped more than 4.16 percent to reach $88.10 per barrel. Concerns about retaliation toward oil-producing Iran for its support of Hamas have jostled energy markets. Iran has denied any involvement in the attacks on Israel, though a White House national security official said Iran is “broadly complicit.” Experts said oil prices are also rising over fears of violence spilling out beyond Gaza. “The crude oil market remains hyper-alert to any indication that the conflict between Israel and Hamas is poised to expand into the oil producing region in the Middle East,” “Reports regarding Iran’s support for the Hamas attack have been denied by Iran but concern is focused on a broader Iran-Israeli conflict, which would, in turn lead to a dramatic escalation of conflict in the region, and a dramatic climb in oil prices,” A 2022 report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration puts Iranian crude oil production capacity at 3.7 million barrels of oil per day. That number was restricted in practice to around 2.4 million barrels in 2021 by international sanctions, according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Oil Prices Soar After Attacks on Israel -- Oil prices surged after a shock attack on Israel by Hamas brought renewed instability to the Middle East. More than 1,400 people have died since the fighting between Israel and militant group Hamas broke out over the weekend, in a conflict that has potential repercussions across the wider region. US crude futures settled above $86 a barrel, at one point rallying 5.4%. While Israel’s role in global oil supply is limited, the bloody outbreak threatens to embroil both the US and Iran. Iran has become a major source of extra crude this year, alleviating otherwise tightening markets, but additional American sanctions on Tehran could constrain those shipments. “Recently crude has been prone to overreact to geopolitical events and price increases have been short-lived,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. “This situation may prove to be the exception,” with the market especially sensitive to potential supply disruptions. Any retaliation against Tehran — amid reports that it helped to plan the attacks — could endanger the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit that transports much of the world’s crude and which the Iranian government previously threatened to close. Iran denied on Monday that it was involved in the assault. The surge after the attacks added a fresh bout of volatility to a market that has seen sizable swings over the last month. In late September, Brent was on course to rally up to $100 a barrel as cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia tightened the market, before retreating sharply last week as concerns about consumption and financial flows pulled prices lower. Early trading on Monday saw a flurry of bullish activity in the Brent options markets, with call options that profit from higher oil prices outpacing — by more than three-to-one — bearish put options. WTI for November delivery climbed $3.59 to settle at $86.38 a barrel in New York. Brent for December delivery rose $3.57 to settle at $88.15 a barrel. The conflict may have far-reaching consequences for crude. Banks had a wide range of takes on the potential impacts:
- Citigroup said the hostilities reduce expectations that Saudi Arabia will cut or eliminate its 1 million barrels-a-day of output curbs. Risks are also growing that Israel will attack Iran, analysts including Ed Morse said.
- Morgan Stanley said that they thought the impact of the conflict would be limited. For now they don’t expect a spillover into other countries, meaning there will be a muted longer-term impact on crude prices.
- Societe Generale SA said heightened geopolitical tensions could add $5-$10 risk premium to crude prices.
- RBC Capital Markets analysts including Helima Croft said Israel will likely escalate a long-running shadow war against Iran, but Tehran’s response to such a move will be less clear.
Fears of a Disruption to Supplies Amid the Conflict in the Middle East Receded Saudi Arabia Pledged to Help Stabilize the Market -- The oil market on Wednesday sold off as fears of a disruption to supplies amid the conflict in the Middle East receded after Saudi Arabia pledged to help stabilize the market. The market retraced some of its losses in overnight trading and posted a high of $86.51 before it began to erase its gains and sold off sharply. The market backfilled its gap from $84.67 to $83.28 as it posted a low of $83.11 by mid-day. This followed Saudi Arabia’s assurances on Tuesday that it was working with regional and international partners to prevent an escalation of the conflict in Israel and its efforts to stabilize oil markets. The market later traded in about a $1.50 range from $83.11 to $84.64 during the remainder of the session. The November WTI contract settled down $2.48 at $83.49 and the December Brent contract settled down $1.83 at $85.82. The product markets in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 2.16 cents at $2.9985 and the RB market settling down 4.83 cents at $2.2101. The EIA cut its global oil demand growth forecast for 2023 by 50,000 bpd to 1.76 million bpd and its 2024 estimate by 40,000 bpd to 1.32 million bpd. Total world petroleum demand is estimated at 100.92 million bpd in 2023 and increase to 102.24 million bpd in 2024. The EIA reported that global oil inventories are expected to fall by 200,000 bpd in the second half of 2023 due to the voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia, along with reduced production targets among OPEC+ countries. Total world oil output is forecast to increase by 1.31 million bpd to 101.26 million bpd in 2023 but fall by 930,000 bpd to 102.19 million bpd in 2024. OPEC’s oil output in 2023 is expected to fall by 750,000 bpd to 27.92 million bpd and fall by 140,000 bpd to 27.78 million bpd in 2024. U.S. oil output is forecast to increase by 1.46 million bpd to 21.76 million bpd in 2023 and by 40,000 bpd to 22.16 million bpd in 2024. Meanwhile, U.S. petroleum demand is forecast to increase by 60,000 bpd to 20.07 million bpd in 2023 and by 150,000 bpd to 20.22 million bpd in 2024. U.S. gasoline demand is forecast to increase by 3,000 bpd to 8.84 million bpd in 2023 but fall by 150,000 bpd to 8.69 million bpd in 2024, while distillate demand is expected to fall by 110,000 bpd to 3.92 million bpd in 2023 and increase by 50,000 bpd to 3.97 million bpd in 2024. In regards to oil prices, the price of Brent crude is expected to increase to $94.91/barrel in 2024, up from a previous forecast of $88.22/barrel.Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said that he and Saudi Arabia's Minister for Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman discussed the oil market and cooperation within the OPEC+ group of oil producers amid the escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in 2 million bpd of capacity in the week ending October 13th, increasing available refining capacity by 87,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 1.6 million bpd in the week ending October 20th.
Brent Tops $90 as Russian Sanctions Add to Mideast Turmoil -- Nearby-delivery oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Friday's session with gains between 4.5% and 5.5%, supercharged by a pledge from G7 nations to strengthen the sanction regime on Russian oil exports that kicked off with penalizing two foreign oil tankers, while the escalating war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas risks metastasizing into a broader conflict in the Middle East. Iran's foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, whose government explicitly supports Hamas, on Friday threatened to open the second front on Israel's northern border should violence in the Gaza Strip escalate any further. Although Tehran denied its direct involvement in the brutal attack on Israeli civilians, recent statements from Iranian officials sound increasingly aggressive toward Israel and a potential ground offensive in the Gaza Strip. Israel has given Palestinians residing in northern Gaza 24 hours to evacuate to the southern parts of the Strip, although not a single humanitarian corridor currently operates for the civilians to leave the besieged enclave. Talks with Egypt to open a humanitarian corridor through a pedestrian-only crossing in Rafah have so far failed, according to the most recent reports. The United Nations warned on Friday the relocation of 1.1 million people in such a short timespan would be impossible to implement, resulting in a "humanitarian disaster." Explosive conflicts like these can take a sudden turn in any direction, according to analysts and traders, prompting disruption of oil supplies in the Middle East. "A sharp escalation in geopolitical risk in the Middle East, a region accounting for more than one-third of the world's seaborne oil trade, has markets on edge. While there has been no direct impact on physical supply, markets will remain on tenterhooks as the crisis unfolds," said the International Energy Agency in its October Oil Market Report released Thursday. Friday's move higher in the oil complex also follows renewed efforts by G7 nations to clamp down on sanctions evasion by international shipping companies carrying Russian oil above the established price cap of $60 per barrel (bbl). U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday slapped sanctions on two shipping companies based in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates for violating the sanctions' regime while using U.S. banking and insurance services. "Taking the steps is sending a clear message to Russia that we will continue to be focused on forcing them into two costly options. And attempts to expand beyond them will face a decisive and unified response," read a U.S. Treasury Department statement. The United States, European Union, Group of Seven countries and Australia, imposed a $60-per-bbl limit last year on what Russia could charge for its oil. The cap was designed to deprive the Kremlin of revenue to fund its war in Ukraine, forcing the Russian government either to sell its oil at a discount or divert money for a costly alternative shipping network. At settlement, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures for November delivery jumped $4.78 to $87.69 per bbl, while ICE Brent spiked $4.89 to finish a volatile week of trading at $90.89 per bbl. NYMEX November ULSD futures climbed to $3.2117 per gallon, surging $0.1668 in afternoon trading, and front-month RBOB futures added $0.1003 to settle at $2.2653 gallon..
The Israeli war on Hamas from a geopolitical perspective – Gilbert Doctorow -- The devastating attack on Israel by Hamas yesterday and Israel’s declaration of total war have been the featured news items in Western media today. Some of what the talking heads are saying to CNN, Euronews and the BBC is perceptive and valuable, much more so than any of their commentary on the war in Ukraine, which is my primary focus. I think that I am impressed not merely because the less you know about any given subject, the easier it is to take seriously what mainstream presents. No, what I have heard about the failures of Israeli intelligence on these stations has made good sense and seems credible. There are, incidentally, two markers that would justify giving the geopolitical perspective more thought. One is the news that the head of the Arab League flew to Moscow today for talks with Foreign Minister Lavrov. The other is the statement from an official in the Russia-controlled Donbas that NATO arms delivered earlier in the year to Ukraine were resold and likely are being used against Israel in the war there now under way. That brings up the remarks of Benjamin Netanyahu this past July that the Palestinians were known to have procured anti-tank weapons, presumably Javelins, from the Ukrainians. That is not an irrelevancy, because the Israelis will have to move armor into the Gaza Strip to take control and this type of NATO weaponry could inflict great damage on IDF personnel and equipment. Mainstream commentators with some military experience have pointed out that an attack like this one must have taken a long time in preparation, perhaps as long as a year. And so the question arises, why now? One clue mentioned by commentators is that it has come just after the Jewish High Holy Days. However, I believe the timing was driven by something entirely different, something purely in the domain of geopolitics: the attack was staged to disrupt the ongoing rapprochement of Saudi Arabia and Israel under the direction of Washington. If the parties succeeded in concluding the agreement on normalization of relations, then that would put in jeopardy all hopes of the Palestinians to enjoy the support of their Arab brethren in the region for realization of their political ambitions for statehood. Meanwhile, if there should be a Saudi-Israeli agreement, then the power balance in the region between Iran and Saudi Arabia would shift significantly in Saudis’ favor, since the conditions they were negotiating with Washington to make peace with Israel included declaration of a formal security treaty with the United States and access to U.S. nuclear technology up to and including enrichment of uranium. In other words, the Saudis would close in on the current Iranian advantage of being a hair’s breadth away from possessing bombs. Under present conditions of all-out war by Israel on Hamas and the prospect of a bloody incursion into Gaza by the Israeli Defense Force, it is unthinkable for Saudi Arabia to proceed with normalization of relations. This means, in effect, that a serious blow has been dealt to the foreign policy of the Biden administration. This failure comes on top of the Afghanistan withdrawal fiasco. If the allegations that NATO weapons have come into the hands of Hamas via Ukraine, then the consequences of uncontrolled delivery of weapons to Kiev will be on display for everyone to see. Failure breeds failures, and you cannot dress up this new pig in the Middle East policy of Biden and Blinken and Sullivan with lipstick.
Palestinians reportedly capture Israeli tanks -Hamas militants appeared to capture Israeli tanks during unprecedented attacks on Israel early Saturday, according to social media reports.The Palestinian militant group launched the largest attack on Israel in decades early Saturday, invading multiple Israeli towns from Gaza and launching masses of missiles into the country.Video shared on social media appears to show Hamas militants walking around an abandoned Israeli military base and capturing armored vehicles. Other videos, which could not be confirmed, show militants taking photos with captured tanks.The Hamas attacks appeared to catch the Israeli military off guard, while the massive scale and coordinated effort of the attacks point to a significant Israeli intelligence failure.The attacks come on the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah and is nearly 50 years to the day after the beginning of the 1973 Yom Kippur war.An Israeli military spokesman confirmed Saturday that militants had captured Israeli soldiers and civilians and taken them hostage in the fighting.At least 250 Israelis and 232 Palestinians have been killed in the fighting, according to Israeli media reports and the Palestinian government. The Palestinian government said the attacks Saturday are a result of Israel discrimination against Palestinians in the country, including attacks on Muslim minorities and occupation of the West Bank.“We have repeatedly warned against the consequences of blocking the political horizon and failing to enable the Palestinian people to exercise their legitimate right to self-determination and establish long their own state,” a statement reads.
Israeli Lawmaker Says 'Pogroms' Against Palestinians Provoked Hamas Assault - An Israeli lawmaker told Al Jazeera on Saturday that his party had been warning that Israeli policies toward Palestinians would “erupt” into the violence that Israel is experiencing in the wake of Hamas’ assault.The comments were made by Ofer Cassif, a member of the Knesset and the leftist Hadash party, which holds four seats in the 120-seat Knesset.“We condemn and oppose any assault on innocent civilians. But in contrast to the Israeli government that means that we oppose any assault on Palestinian civilians as well. We must analyze those terrible incidents [the attacks] in the right context – and that is the ongoing occupation,” said Cassif, who is Jewish.“We have been warning time and time again… everything is going to erupt and everybody is going to pay a price – mainly innocent civilians on both sides. And unfortunately, that is exactly what happened,” he added.Since the Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came into power at the end of December 2022, violence against Palestinians has significantly risen, mainly due to an escalation of Israeli raids in the West Bank. Settler attacks have also been on the rise, and Netanyahu’s governing coalition made expanding settlements a top priority with the ultimate goal of annexing the West Bank.Gaza has also been under an Israeli-imposed land, sea, and air blockade since 2007, and Israel frequently bombs the besieged enclave. The last major bombing campaign took place in 2021, when over 250 Palestinians were killed.“The Israeli government, which is a fascist government, supports, encourages, and leads pogroms against the Palestinians. There is an ethnic cleansing going on. It was obvious the writing was on the wall, written in the blood of the Palestinians – and unfortunately now Israelis as well,” Cassif said.Cassif also urged for de-escalation on X, writing that those calling for the destruction of Gaza “are only encouraging another bloodbath.” He also strongly denounced the Hamas assault, calling the actions “horrific crimes that the mind does not tolerate.”
Israel Says It Has No Evidence Iran Was Involved in Hamas Attack - On Monday, Israeli officials said they had no evidence that Iran was involved in the Hamas attack on southern Israel after a report from The Wall Street Journal claimed Iranian officials helped plot the operation.“We have no evidence or proof” that Iran was involved, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Maj. Nir Dinar told POLITICO. Dinar left open the possibility that Tehran was linked to the attack, saying, “Just because you don’t have that evidence doesn’t necessarily mean Iran isn’t behind it.”Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, another IDF spokesman, made similar comments. “Iran is a major player, but we can’t yet say if it was involved in the planning or training,” Hagari said.Iran and Hamas also denied Iranian involvement in the assault. “The accusations linked to an Iranian role… are based on political reasons,”said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani. He insisted that Iran does not intervene in the “decision-making of other countries, including Palestine.”Ali Barakeh, a Hamas leader living in exile in Beirut, said only top Hamas military officials were aware of the plot before the attack was launched. “Only a handful of Hamas commanders knew about the zero hour,” he told AP.The Wall Street Journal report claimed Iran gave Hamas the green light for the attack during a meeting in Beirut last week, but Barakeh said no one from the central command or the political bureau of Hamas was in the Lebanese capital last week. He acknowledged that Iran has previously aided Hamas but said since the 2014 Gaza war, the group has been manufacturing its own rockets and training its own fighters.Barakeh said he was surprised that the attack, dubbed “Operation Al-Aqsa Storm,” did so much damage to Israel. “We were surprised by this great collapse,” he said. “We were planning to make some gains and take prisoners to exchange them. This army was a paper tiger.”The Wall Street Journal claimed Iran started helping plot the attack in August, but according to AP, the operation had been planned for over a year. Barakeh denied speculation that it was launched to derail Israel-Saudi normalization talks and said it was a reaction to the various provocations from the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which came to power at the end of December 2022.
NYT: US Intelligence Shows Iranian Leaders Were Surprised by Hamas Attack - The New York Times reported on Wednesday that US intelligence shows Iranian leaders were surprised by the Hamas attack on southern Israel and that no evidence has been found indicating Iran helped plan the operation.The report reads: “These key Iranian officials did not know the attack was coming, according to the intelligence. The United States, Israel and key regional allies have not found evidence that Iran directly helped plan the attack, according to the US officials and another official in the Middle East.”The officials who spoke with the Times would not name which Iranian leaders they were talking about but said they are people who would typically be aware of operations involving Iran’s Quds Force, a branch of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that specializes in unconventional warfare, which includes working with foreign forces.The report said that Morgan Muir, a deputy Director of National Intelligence, told Congress in a briefing on Tuesday that there was no direct link between Iran and the Hamas attack. He also said US intelligence agencies had evidence contradicting assertions that Iran had helped plan the attack. On Sunday, The Wall Street Journal published a report claiming that Iran helped plan the operation and gave Hamas the green light for the attack during a meeting in Beirut last week. But the Times report said that the US and its allies “track and monitor meetings between Quds Force leaders and their proxies and allies, including Hamas” and that “officials say there is no evidence that those meetings were used to plan the attack in Israel.”After The Wall Street Journal report was published, the Israeli military saidit had “no evidence or proof” of Iranian involvement in the Hamas attack. Both US and Israeli officials have left open the possibility that Iran was linked to the operation and that they have discovered the evidence yet. The fact that they’re not blaming the attack on Iran signals the US and Israel don’t want to escalate the situation into a wider war, at least while they’re focusing on destroying Gaza.
Egypt Says Israel Ignored Warning That 'Something Big' Was Coming - An Egyptian intelligence official has said that Israel ignored warningsthat “something big” was coming amid questions about how the Hamas attack that was launched Saturday took the Israeli government by surprise, considering Gaza is under constant Israeli surveillance.“We have warned them an explosion of the situation is coming, and very soon, and it would be big. But they underestimated such warnings,” the Egyptian official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AP.The official said that Israeli officials played down the threats from Gaza and focused on the West Bank, where Israel has conducted major raids since the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came into power in December. Netanyahu’s coalition includes settlers who are working to expand settlements in the West Bank with the ultimate goal of annexing the territory.According to The Times of Israel, Ynet reported that Egypt’s Intelligence Minister General Abbas Kamel called Netanyahu just 10 days before the Hamas attack, warning that militants in Gaza were planning “something unusual, a terrible operation.”For their part, Netanyahu’s office dismissed the reports as fake news. “No early message came from Egypt and the prime minister did not speak or meet with the intelligence chief since the establishment of the government — not indirectly or directly. This is completely fake news,” his office said.
Hezbollah fires again at Israel, spurring fears of second front - The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah on Monday fired more rockets and artillery at Israel in retaliation for the deaths of three fighters, raising fears of another front opening as Israeli forces combat the Palestinian militant group Hamas.In a statement carried by state media, Hezbollah said it struck two Israeli command centers in the Galilee region in northern Israel “using guided missiles and mortar shells, causing direct hits.”Hezbollah said the rocket strikes were in response for the “martyrdom” of three fighters who were reportedly killed during Israeli attacks earlier Monday.According to Reuters, Israel sent helicopters to strike targets and shelled southern Lebanon on Monday after a cross-border raid from Palestinian Islamic Jihad members.Israel’s Channel 12 reported that one Israeli soldier died and six others were injured during the Islamic Jihad raid. Israeli forces said they defeated the gunmen who stormed across the border.Hezbollah and Israel also exchanged fire Sunday, a day after Hamas invaded southern Israel and killed hundreds of people.In 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought a brief war that ended after about 34 days. The two armies have since exchanged incremental rocket fire over the borders.Israel is now conducting a major counteroffensive operation against Hamas, striking targets in Gaza with fighter jets and rockets, while cutting off electricity and food to the Gaza Strip ahead of a possible ground operation.If Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran just as Hamas is, were to join the fight against Israel, that would open up another front in northern Israel that would divide forces. Hezbollah also has much more strength and capabilities than Hamas.
Israel Announces 'Complete Siege' of Gaza, Says They're Fighting 'Human Animals' - The Israeli defense minister on Monday announced a “complete siege” on Gaza and said Israeli forces were fighting “human animals” as Israeli airstrikes have been bombarding the enclave, which is home to about one million children.“I have ordered a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed,” said Israeli Defense Yoav Gallant,” according to The Times of Israel. “We are fighting human animals, and we are acting accordingly.”Also on Monday, Hamas warned it would start executing Israeli captives it has taken into Gaza if Israel does not stop its airstrikes. According toMiddle East Eye, Abu Ubaida, spokesman for the military wing of Hamas, said the prisoners were currently safe and sound but that they are being forced to act due to Israel’s airstrikes on civilians. He said if the bombing didn’t stop, civilian prisoners would be killed, and the executions would be documented.Since Hamas launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel on Saturday, about 1,600 people have been killed on both sides, including 900 Israelis and 700 Palestinians. President Biden said on Monday that 11 Americans were among the dead and that he believes others may have been captured.An Israeli military spokesman said early Monday morning that about 100,000 troops are amassed in southern Israel waiting to execute their orders, which include making sure “Hamas will not be able to govern the Gaza Strip.”US officials expect Israel to launch a ground incursion into Gaza soon, and the Biden administration is providing full support, including new military aid and the deployment of an aircraft carrier strike group to the region as a show of force.Gaza has over 2 million residents and has been under an Israeli blockade since 2007, and has come under frequent Israeli bombings since then, leaving the people living in the enclave in a dire situation. Gaza is one of the most densely populated places on earth, meaning a full-scale Israeli invasion will incur substantial civilian casualties.
Gaza 'soon without fuel, medicine and food' - Israel authorities --The Gaza Strip could be on the brink of a new humanitarian crisis if supplies are not allowed in, authorities say, as Israel responds to the Hamas attacks. On Monday, Israel declared a "complete siege" on the territory, saying electricity, food, fuel and water would be cut off. According to residents, aid has not reached the enclave since Saturday. BBC footage shows deserted streets covered with rubble from collapsed buildings following Israeli airstrikes. Nearly 700 people have died in these attacks and thousands more are reported to have been injured. The area is home to about 2.3 million people in total - 80% of whom rely on humanitarian aid mainly due to the ongoing hostilities with Israel. It is ruled by Hamas militants but Israel controls the airspace and its shoreline. It also restricts who and what goods can cross its borders. Neighbouring Egypt strictly controls what or who can pass through its border with Gaza too. Since the attacks began on Saturday morning, Israel has stopped all supplies entering Gaza, including food and medicine. Stéphane Dujarric, spokesman for the UN secretary-general, said more than a dozen healthcare workers had been killed or injured and at least seven medical centres had been damaged. Meanwhile, many people are currently without electricity and internet, and could soon be out of essential food and water supplies. "Damage to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities has undermined services to more than 400,000 people," said Mr Dujarric. "The Gaza Power Plant is now the only source of electricity and could run out of fuel within days."
Egypt's Border Crossing With Gaza Closed Off as Palestinians Have Nowhere to Flee - The Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza has been closed off as Palestinians have nowhere to flee amid relentless Israeli airstrikes that started in response to the Hamas attack on southern Israel.The Israeli military on Tuesday revised a recommendation for Palestinians to “get out” of Gaza through the Rafah crossing into Egypt. “Clarification: The Rafah crossing was open yesterday, but now it is closed,” the office of spokesman Lt-Col. Richard Hecht said, according toReuters.The New Arab reported that Egyptian officials said the crossing was closed off indefinitely. “The crossing will be closed indefinitely, for the situation has become quite dangerous after the Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip has had an impact on the Egyptian side of the crossing,” an Egyptian security source told the outlet.Another source said Egypt was trying to ensure “no attempts of infiltration by Palestinians into Egypt can take place.” According toIsrael’s Channel 13, Israel has threatened Egypt it would bomb any aid trucks heading into Gaza.According to the Red Crescent, three Israeli airstrikes hit the Rafah border crossing within 24 hours after Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced a “complete siege of Gaza,” which involved cutting off food, water, electricity, and fuel.Israeli Maj. Gen. Ghassan Alian, the head of an Israeli military agency in charge of policies in the West Bank and Gaza, said on Tuesday that Israel was turning Gaza into “hell.” “Human animals must be treated as such. There will be no electricity and no water [in Gaza], there will only be destruction. You wanted hell, you will get hell.”Gaza is one of the most densely populated places on earth, home to over two million people, including about one million children.
'A Massive War Crime': Israel Announces Total Blockade of Gaza Strip --Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced a "complete siege" of the Gaza Strip on Monday, pledging to block food and fuel from entering the occupied enclave and cut off the territory's electricity—steps that international law experts and other observers decried as a clear war crime that will devastate civilians."There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed," said Gallant.Using rhetoric that one commentator called "blatantly genocidal," Gallant added that "we are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingly."Israel has been imposing a land, air, and sea blockade on the Gaza Strip for nearly two decades, impoverishing much of the crowded enclave's population and denying millions sufficient access to clean water and other necessities. Children, who make up roughly half of Gaza's population, have been disproportionately affected.An intensification of the blockade against Gaza—often described as the world's largest open-air prison—would be both unlawful and catastrophic, analysts warned."Starving 2 million people who cannot move and are under a land siege and naval blockade is genocide," Pakistani writer Fatima Bhutto wroteon social media. "This is a war crime."Tom Dannenbaum, a legal scholar and associate professor of international law at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, agreed with that assessment, pointing to International Criminal Court statutes. "Gallant is ordering a massive war crime (ICC 8(2)(b)(xxv)) and very likely a crime against humanity (ICC 7(1)(b), 7(2)(b) [extermination] / 7(1)(k) [inhumane acts])," Dannenbaum wrote. "Presence of combatants within a civilian population does not affect its civilian character (AP I 50(3)). ICC has jurisdiction."Omar Shakir, Israel and Palestine director at Human Rights Watch, called Gallant's comments "abhorrent" and said that "depriving the population in an occupied territory of food and electricity is collective punishment, which is a war crime, as is using starvation as a weapon of war." "The International Criminal Court should take note of this call to commit a war crime," said Shakir.Israel has since launched a wave of airstrikes in Gaza, killing more than 500 people and injuring thousands. Dozens of Palestinians were reportedly killed Monday by an Israeli attack on Gaza's largest refugee camp. "The intense bombardment has so far displaced more than 120,000 people in the besieged Palestinian enclave," Al Jazeerareported.An analysis published earlier this year by the human rights group Euro-Med Monitor estimated that Israel's 16-year blockade "has impoverished more than 61% of Gaza's total population" and "left nearly 53% of the population facing food insecurity." In a statement on Monday, the Israeli human rights group B'Tselem said that Israeli officials "who now call for killing, destroying, crushing, smashing, and even starving the residents of the Gaza Strip" in the wake of Hamas' attack "forget that this is already Israeli policy.""At this moment, Israel is attacking in the Gaza Strip, when it is clear that once again many of the victims are civilians—including women, children, and the elderly," the group added. "Deliberate harm to civilians is always wrong and prohibited. There can be no justification for such crimes, not when they are committed as part of a struggle for freedom and liberation from oppression, and not when they are justified as a fight against terrorism."
Israel launches ‘one of the largest air strikes ever’ on Hamas Israeli forces say they launched one of the largest air strike operations “ever” against Hamas in the city of Gaza, claiming to have struck hundreds of targets with fighter jets on Monday alone as troops seek to destroy Palestinian militants for launching a massive attack on Israel over the weekend. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said its air force hit 1,200 targets in Gaza between Saturday and Monday, but forces “doubled that number” Monday. Israel said it is targeting weapons storage units, manufacturing sites, and command and control centers operated by Hamas and other Palestinian militants. “The [air force] is conducting one of the largest air strikes ever against Hamas in Gaza to degrade and destroy their ability to terrorize the people of Israel,” the IDF wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “Hamas launched a war. We will restore security to our country.” The Israeli Air Force said targets have been struck in Beit Hanoun, Sajaiya, El-Furqan and Rimal in the Gaza Strip. Videos shared by the Air Force on X show buildings completely decimated by rocket strikes. Close to 500 people have died inside of Gaza, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health. Israel has mostly regained control of communities on the border of Gaza in southern Israel, where scores of Hamas militants invaded Saturday in an unprecedented attack that left at least 700 dead in Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war shortly after the attack and formally declared war Sunday at a security cabinet meeting. Netanyahu on Monday said forces will begin a major counteroffensive to clear out Hamas and Palestinian militants to exact a “huge price” against them for the attack. That’s expected to include a ground operation inside Gaza, after Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Gaza will be under “complete siege” and has ordered electricity, fuel and food to be cut off in the city.
Gaza's Only Power Plant Out of Fuel as Israeli Airstrikes Pound Enclave - Gaza’s only power plant was shut down on Wednesday after it ran out of fuel as the situation in the besieged enclave is becoming increasingly desperate for civilians after days of relentless Israeli airstrikes.At least 1,100 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, and 5,339 have been wounded since Hamas launched its attack on southern Israel. According to Israeli officials, the bodies of 1,500 Hamas militants have been found inside Israel, but the death toll is not confirmed. Violence has also spiked in the West Bank, where at least 29 Palestinians have been killed since Saturday.On the Israeli side, at least 1,200 people have been killed, and 3,007 have been wounded. It’s estimated that Hamas captured about 150 people in Israel that have been brought into Gaza in an apparent attempt to gain leverage for negotiations.Gaza has been under Israeli blockade since 2007, but was put under a “complete siege” this week, meaning no food, fuel, medicine, or water, can enter the territory. The only way out for Gazans, the Rafah border crossing into Egypt, has been closed after airstrikes hit. Israel has threatened to bomb aid trucks entering from Egypt.Gaza hospitals are overwhelmed with people injured from airstrikes and will soon run out of fuel for their generators. A Gaza-based Doctors Without Borders official said the enclave’s largest hospital, Al-Shifa, only has enough fuel for three more days.Ghassan Abu Sitta, a reconstructive surgeon at al-Shifa, told AP the hospital was also running out of other vital supplies. “We’re already beyond the capacity of the system to cope,” he said. He added that the health system in Gaza “has the rest of the week before it collapses, not just because of the diesel. All supplies are running short.”Israel has mobilized 300,000 reservists and is expected to launch a ground invasion of Gaza, one of the most densely populated places on earth that’s home to over 2 million people, half being children. According to Middle East Eye, about a third of the 1,100 people killed in Gaza so far were children, but the true toll is unclear.The US is strongly backing Israel’s onslaught and according to National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, is not setting any red lines, giving Israel free rein to kill civilians. “I’m not here to draw red lines or issue warnings or give lectures to anybody,” Sullivan said.
Egypt's Border Crossing With Gaza Closed Off as Palestinians Have Nowhere to Flee - The Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza has been closed off as Palestinians have nowhere to flee amid relentless Israeli airstrikes that started in response to the Hamas attack on southern Israel.The Israeli military on Tuesday revised a recommendation for Palestinians to “get out” of Gaza through the Rafah crossing into Egypt. “Clarification: The Rafah crossing was open yesterday, but now it is closed,” the office of spokesman Lt-Col. Richard Hecht said, according toReuters.The New Arab reported that Egyptian officials said the crossing was closed off indefinitely. “The crossing will be closed indefinitely, for the situation has become quite dangerous after the Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip has had an impact on the Egyptian side of the crossing,” an Egyptian security source told the outlet.Another source said Egypt was trying to ensure “no attempts of infiltration by Palestinians into Egypt can take place.” According toIsrael’s Channel 13, Israel has threatened Egypt it would bomb any aid trucks heading into Gaza.According to the Red Crescent, three Israeli airstrikes hit the Rafah border crossing within 24 hours after Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced a “complete siege of Gaza,” which involved cutting off food, water, electricity, and fuel.Israeli Maj. Gen. Ghassan Alian, the head of an Israeli military agency in charge of policies in the West Bank and Gaza, said on Tuesday that Israel was turning Gaza into “hell.” “Human animals must be treated as such. There will be no electricity and no water [in Gaza], there will only be destruction. You wanted hell, you will get hell.”Gaza is one of the most densely populated places on earth, home to over two million people, including about one million children.
Israel Accused of ‘Blatant War Crime’ as Human Rights Watch Confirms White Phosphorus Used in Gaza - Human Rights Watch on Thursday said it has confirmed reports that Israeli military forces unleashed white phosphorus munitions during artillery attacks on targets in Lebanon and Gaza this week, including over a heavily populated civilian area of the besieged Palestinian strip—an apparent war crime. HRW said it has interviewed witnesses and verified video footage shot in Lebanon and Gaza on Tuesday and Wednesday “showing multiple airbursts of artillery-fired white phosphorus over the Gaza City port and two rural locations along the Israel-Lebanon border.”The HRW announcement came as Israeli forces continue to bombard Gaza from air, land, and sea in an assault that has killed more than 1,500 Palestinians, including at least 500 children, in retaliation for Hamas’ surprise infiltration of Israel and killing of over 1,300 Israeli soldiers and civilians.As HRW explained Thursday:Upon contact, white phosphorus can burn people, thermally and chemically, down to the bone as it is highly soluble in fat and therefore in human flesh. White phosphorus fragments can exacerbate wounds even after treatment and can enter the bloodstream and cause multiple organ failure. Already dressed wounds can reignite when dressings are removed and the wounds are reexposed to oxygen. Even relatively minor burns are often fatal. For survivors, extensive scarring tightens muscle tissue and creates physical disabilities.WP burns as hot as 1,500°F. Water does not extinguish it.“Any time that white phosphorus is used in crowded civilian areas, it poses a high risk of excruciating burns and lifelong suffering,” HRW Middle East and North Africa director Lama Fakih said in a statement. “White phosphorous is unlawfully indiscriminate when airburst in populated urban areas, where it can burn down houses and cause egregious harm to civilians.” HRW previously accused Israel of war crimes for using WP munitions in densely populated areas—including over a United Nations school—during the 2008-09 Operation Cast Lead invasion of Gaza. In response to a 2013 petition to Israel’s High Court of Justice filed by human rights groups including HRW, the Israel Defense Forces said it would no longer use WP in populated areas, with “very narrow exceptions” that it would not disclose.
Israeli Official Calls for 'Doomsday' Nuclear Missile Option - Israeli lawmaker is calling for her nation's military to use nuclear warfare in response to attacks by Hamas. Revital "Tally" Gotliv, an Israeli lawyer and member of the Knesset for the Likud, published multiple posts advocating for a forceful retaliation following a surprise attack on Gaza on Saturday at the hands of the militant Palestinian group designated as a terrorist organization by the United States. More than 1,600 combined Israelis and Palestinians have reportedly been killed since Hamas launched attacks, according to the Associated Press, and hundreds of others have been injured. Hamas has reportedly taken an unknown number of hostages as the conflict has escalated."Jericho Missile! Jericho Missile! Strategic alert. before considering the introduction of forces. Doomsday weapon! This is my opinion. May God preserve all our strength," Gotliv wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Monday, according to a translation. One Israeli lawmaker, Revital "Tally" Gotliv, has advocated for her government to use a "doomsday weapon" to bomb Hamas without mercy.Another post says: "I urge you to do everything and use Doomsday weapons fearlessly against our enemies," adding that Israel "must use everything in its arsenal." On Tuesday, she continued with her calls of urgency. "Only an explosion that shakes the Middle East will restore this country's dignity, strength and security!" Gotliv posted. "It's time to kiss doomsday. Shooting powerful missiles without limit. Not flattening a neighbourhood. Crushing and flattening Gaza. ... without mercy! without mercy!" She also stressed a swift response from her own government in response to Hamas "laughing" at the country.Nikolai Sokov, senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, told Newsweek via email that "loose talk" regarding nuclear weapons has become prevalent and more commonplace in recent years due to the war in Ukraine and now the escalation in Gaza.Part of it is understandable, he said, due to serious security crises, a lack of knowledge about nuclear weapons, visible political positions, and more people generally pondering the use of such weapons and the effect on a global scale."For Israel, such loose talk is perhaps even more damaging because the country does not even admit it has nuclear weapons, so an indirect confirmation is not good for its image," Sokov said.Sokov added that Gotliv's calls for escalatory measures is nearsighted for two reasons: one, any potential targets are in the immediate vicinity, hence damage to Israel would be considerable; and two, the military utility of nuclear weapons is often grossly overestimated, especially by those who have limited or no knowledge of nuclear weapons."There are, effectively, no targets for nuclear weapons in this war/conflict," he said.
Israeli official calls for 'Doomsday' missile that 'shakes the Middle East' to be used in response to Hamas attacks - despite the nation never openly admitting to having nuclear weapons -- An Israeli lawmaker has called for her nation's military to deploy nuclear weapons in response to the Hamas terror attacks that have left 1,200 Israelis dead. Revital 'Tally' Gotliv, a member of the right-wing Likud party in the Knesset has called multiple times on her social media accounts for her country to wipe Gaza off the map. Israel's military arsenal is extensive, and though it is believed the country has possessed a significant number of nuclear weapons since the 1960s, the small country situated in a hostile area has never officially confirmed its nuclear power. Since Saturday, when Iran-backed Hamas terrorists brutalized Israeli towns and cities in the south, Israel has declared war on the Palestinian terrorists and begun a counteroffensive that Israeli leaders say will involve significant destruction to Gaza. In one tweet, Gotliv, who has previously been extremely critical of Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu despite their shared party membership, wrote: 'Jericho Missile! Jericho Missile! Strategic alert. before considering the introduction of forces. Doomsday weapon! This is my opinion. May God preserve all our strength.' The message was written and posted in Hebrew and has been translated.Jericho missiles are a general name given to a family of ballistic missiles that were first developed by Israel in the 1960s.She encouraged her country's army to 'shell Gaza mercilessly!' 'Only an explosion that shakes the Middle East will restore this country's dignity, strength and security,' wrote. 'I urge you to do everything and use Doomsday weapons fearlessly against our enemies.'Israel, she declared, 'must use everything in its arsenal.'She stressed that the Israeli government must respond quickly as Hamas is currently 'laughing' at her country. She wrote that merely 'flattening' a Gazan neighborhood would not be enough. The government must 'crush' all of Gaza.Following the terror attacks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately declared a state of war and has since promised 'mighty vengeance' on Israel's attackers that will end in victory for his country.Israeli Defense Forces have begun bombarding key Hamas sites in the Gaza Strip and issued warnings to civilians in certain regions before a wave of retaliatory attacks began Monday morning. Early Wednesday morning, another wave of attacks against Gaza began. Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defense minister, said he has 'released all restraints' on the troops in their fight against Hamas. 'Hamas wanted a change and it will get one. What was in Gaza will no longer be,' he said, speaking to soldiers near the Gaza fence. Gallant promised to show no mercy to the terrorists. 'Whoever comes to decapitate, murder women, Holocaust survivors - we will eliminate him at the height of our power and without compromise.'
Modi and Netanyahu: Two Sides of The Same Coin -- by Riaz Haq - Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recently tweeted that he is "shocked by the news of terrorist attacks in Israel", adding that "We stand in solidarity with Israel at this difficult hour". Modi's critics have noted that he has yet to tweet any condemnation of the continuing killings of his fellow countrymen in Manipur. Nor has he tweeted any similar condemnation of the long and brutal Israeli military occupation of Gaza and the West Bank. Modi's reaction makes sense given the similarities between Modi and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Both leaders are extreme right-wing divisive politicians. Modi is a Hindu Supremacist and Netanyahu is a Jewish Supremacist. Both have a long histories of murdering large numbers of Muslims living under their rule. Both are pursuing settler colonial policies; Modi in Kashmir and Netanyahu in Palestine. Indians, particularly Hindu Nationalists, have suffered from what Shashi Tharoor calls "India's Israel Envy". Here's an excerpt of Tharoor's piece published in "Project Syndicate" in January 2009: "Yet, when Indians watch Israel take the fight to the enemy, killing those who launched rockets against it and dismantling many of the sites from which the rockets flew, some cannot resist wishing that they could do something similar in Pakistan. India understands, though, that the collateral damage would be too high, the price in civilian lives unacceptable, and the risks of the conflict spiraling out of control too acute to contemplate such an option. So Indians place their trust in international diplomacy and watch, with ill-disguised wistfulness, as Israel does what they could never permit themselves to do. In a piece titled "The Settler Colonial Alliance of India and Israel" published in The Nation, Indian journalist Deeksha Udupa interviewed Azad Essa, author of “Hostile Homelands” – The new alliance between India and Israel". Here's what Essa told Udupa: "Kashmir is a perfect example of another region being turned into a sort of testing ground (for Israeli weapons and methods). Both India and Israel already share many tactics. They both attack journalists and criminalize civil society. They both exercise collective punishment on Palestinians and Kashmiris. They both maim protesters. In Palestine, protesters are shot in the limbs. In Kashmir, protesters are blinded by lead pellets. Israeli drones, sensors, surveillance, and machine guns are all there, and Israeli methods of controlling the population have long existed in Kashmir—so much so that India is now producing some of these Israeli weapons in factories across India.". Azad Essa argues that the Israeli occupation of Palestine has served as a model that Indians are replicating in Kashmir. He says that Israeli weapons, developed and field tested on Palestinians, have been used in Kashmir. Here are a couple of excerpts from his book "Hostile Homelands: The New Alliance Between India and Israel": : "So how did India, which once considered Zionism a form of racism, become Israel’s number one weapons trade buyer, accounting for 42% of Israel’s arms exports since Modi came to power in 2014?* How did India, the first non-Arab state to recognize the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and one of the leaders of the Non-Aligned Movement that opposed colonialism and apartheid, simultaneously maintain its colonial occupation of Kashmir since 1947 and metamorphose into extolling Israel’s settlements as a model to colonize Kashmir with its own Indian settlers?" "In the days leading to August 5, 2019 and in the weeks and months to come, Kashmir became a site of unfathomable cruelty. Thousands of Kashmiris were detained; pro-India politicians were placed under house arrest, pro-freedom leaders as well as minors were rounded up and thrown in jail. Young boys were shipped off to Indian prisons 1,500km away in Agra and Varanasi. Foreign journalists and international human rights groups were banned from access to Kashmir. The region was placed under a complete communication blackout. Cellular phones, Internet, landline services, and even the postal services were dismantled. News traveled by word of mouth. Journalists compressed photos and video onto memory cards and smuggled them out with passengers en route to Delhi. Schools, offices, banks, and businesses were closed for months. Life came to a standstill". Here's India's JNU Professor speaking about illegal Indian occupation of Kashmir, Manipur and Nagaland:
New Middle East war delivers a new threat to world economy - The new war in the Middle East is throwing yet another wrench into the world’s energy markets — hitting a struggling global economy at a politically perilous moment for leaders in the United States and Europe.This weekend’s surprise attack in Israel by the Palestinian group Hamas brought new calls from lawmakers for tightened U.S. sanctions against Iran and threatened to derail efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Either outcome could send already-high oil prices soaring.Prices began climbing as soon as markets resumed trading Sunday night, with the global benchmark up 5 percent to nearly $89 a barrel just after 9:30 p.m. EDT. The price settled below $88 by 9 a.m. Monday.The stew of economic troubles and war is adding to President Joe Biden’s challenges as he faces reelection next year amid persistent inflation concerns, at the same time that U.S. allies in countries such as Germany arefacing a populist uprising tied in part to energy costs.Most immediately, Biden is facing calls from both Democratic and Republican lawmakers to tighten enforcement of sanctions restricting oil exports by Iran, Hamas’ main sponsor and supporter.GOP lawmakers also spent the weekend ramping up attacks on the president’s efforts to ease tensions with Tehran — prompting the administration to stress that all sanctions remain in place.Global petroleum supplies have already been roiled by Russia’s war on Ukraine and the resulting Western sanctions against Moscow’s oil exports. Those prices had slumped slightly last week, but many analysts are bracing for a spike in the coming days or weeks.Prices are likely to rise “not so much because the conflict impacts any oil supply at the moment, but on the fear that the conflict could draw in other players such as Iran who has been backing Hamas,” said Andy Lipow, head of the energy consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates.Iran was the world’s eighth-largest oil producer last year and exported about 2 million barrels per day in August, despite sanctions aimed at pressuring Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions.Energy analysts say it has grown more adept at evading those trade sanctions using ship-to-ship transfers to help it move increasing volumes of discounted oil to China.Biden needs to clamp down on those exports now, lawmakers said afterIran’s leaders praised and offered support for Hamas’ attacks on Israel.“These attacks reinforce the need for a more aggressive U.S.-Iran policy that more effectively deprives the regime and its proxies of resources,” said Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in a statement Saturday.He added, “Sanctions and sanctions enforcement — particularly Chinese purchases of Iranian oil — need vast improvement.”
Israel-Hamas war looms over slowing world economy - The outlook for the global economy is getting worse. International economic agencies are coalescing around slower growth projections after a year of interest rate hikes from central banks, even as the U.S. economy has so far defied a long-predicted downturn. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday said global growth will slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024, a 0.1 percentage point downgrade for 2024 from the group’s July estimate. “Part of the slowdown is the result of the tighter monetary policy necessary to bring inflation down. This is starting to bite,” Economists are once again worried about commodities and energy specifically, which is in the spotlight because of renewed conflict in the Middle East, just as it was after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. And another Federal Reserve rate hike could boost the pressure on the global economy as it faces rising Middle East tensions and slowing growth. The U.S. economy has “surprised on the upside, with resilient consumption and investment,” Gourinchas noted as he warned about drags like the Chinese real estate market, the lapsing of pandemic-era social safety net programs, and the risk of further commodity shocks that prolonged inflation in 2022. The IMF’s sentiments were echoed in recent forecasts from the group of developed economies in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) as well as the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The OECD is also expecting 3-percent growth for the global economy in 2023 along with 2.7-percent growth in 2024, arguing like the IMF that “the impact of tighter monetary policy is becoming increasingly visible.” “With uncertainty about the strength and speed of monetary policy transmission and the persistence of inflation, a key question is whether the policy tightening that has already been undertaken is sufficient to bring inflation smoothly back towards target,” OECD economists said in their September interim report. Economists with UNCTAD struck a more pessimistic tone, putting the 2023 global growth outlook at 2.4 percent, but seeing the economy move in an upward direction in 2024. “The world economy is flying at ‘stall speed,’ with projections of a modest growth of 2.4 percent in 2023, meeting the definition of a global recession,” they said. “Central banks must strengthen international coordination with a greater focus on long-term financial sustainability for the private and public sectors, and not just on price stability.” But Fed officials are still focused on their 2-percent inflation target in spite of the risks of a downturn. Inflation proved stubborn over the last tightening cycle due in part to commodity shocks that prolonged higher prices through initial supply disruptions boosted by stimulus-driven demand. The prospect of a broader Middle East conflict triggered by the war between Israel and Hamas is also driving inflation fears across markets. “Commodity prices could become more volatile under renewed geopolitical tensions,” the IMF warned Tuesday. “Since June, oil prices have increased by about 25 percent, on the back of extended supply cuts from OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus selected nonmembers) countries.” “Adverse supply shocks in global commodity markets might reoccur,” OECD economists said in September, adding that “a renewed spike in energy prices would give new impetus to headline inflation.” U.N. economists noted that the production cuts ordered by OPEC+ have been countered by OECD countries through production increases and reserve releases. “Despite the announced rounds of production cuts by OPEC+ countries in April 2023 – representing a reduction of over 1 million barrels per day – a significant increase in oil production from non-OPEC+ countries as well as a substantial release of strategic petroleum reserves by OECD member countries have more than offset the agreed OPEC+ cuts,” they said.
Has China’s economy hit the wall? - Lackluster growth and rising uncertainty have focused the world’s attention on the state of China’s economy. After a strong start to 2023, Chinese economic activity has sharply fallen short of expectations. Exports have collapsed. Consumption, production and investment have slowed, while inflation leveled out and the unemployment rate edged up. The Chinese renminbi hit new lows in August and September 2023, driven by worries about the domestic economy. Former US treasury secretary Larry Summers has made ominous comparisons between China, Russia and Japan, saying that “people are going to look back at some of the economic forecasts about China in 2020 in the same way they looked back at economic forecasts for Russia that were made in 1960 or for Japan in 1990.” As always, there are cyclical and structural factors at play in the unfolding economic outlook. Among the cyclical factors are scars from the Covid-19 pandemic – deteriorating balance sheets, an ailing property sector and a limited macroeconomic policy response. Meanwhile, structural pressures are weighing on confidence as regulatory, security and political stability concerns continue to mount. After three years of pandemic pressure, the balance sheets of households, enterprises and local governments are stretched. Unlike the United States, China’s government did not hand out large subsidies to households and enterprises during the Covid-19 pandemic. Without that demand-side stimulus, Chinese consumption has been sluggish. Financially, China’s biggest worries revolve around the property sector. If this sector were to collapse, the consequences would be very damaging. But one difference between China’s situation and that of, for example, the 2007–08 US subprime crisis, is the lack of visible negative equity in Chinese property. This is due to the substantial down payments required in China, especially for second or third property purchases, which range from 60 to 90%. If property prices were to drop – and they haven’t yet substantially in most areas – the property sector’s contribution to financial crisis risk would be smaller than that of the United States in the global financial crisis, although the resultant losses in terms of household wealth and economic growth could still be large. Fiscal and monetary responses to China’s current woes have been modest, both during and after the worst phases of the Covid-19 pandemic. This is even though China is facing deflation rather than inflation risk, in contrast to the United States and Europe.
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