week ending Oct 7

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.0 Trillion from Peak, to $7.96 Trillion, Lowest since June 2021. In September Alone -$146 billion by Wolf Richter - (see graphs) This is a big milestone of the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening (QT): Total assets dropped by $1.01 trillion since peak-QE in April 2022, to $7.96 trillion, the lowest since June 2021, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today.In September alone, total assets dropped by $146 billion as another big chunk of bank-panic support unwound. Total assets have now dropped 11.3% from the peak. During QT #1 between November 2017 and August 2019, the Fed’s total assets dropped by $688 billion. During QT #2 so far, which started ramping up in the summer of 2022, the Fed has already shed $1.01 trillion.But the Fed’s QE pile got huge during the pandemic, and there’s a lot more to take off the pile, and markets are finally waking up to it, with 10-year Treasury yields now closing in on 5% and the 20-year yield over 5%, after short-term yields have been over 5% for months.And inflation is still about twice the Fed’s target, while during QT #1, the Fed was just trying to “normalize” its balance sheet with inflation at or below the Fed’s target:

• Treasury securities: -$58 billion in August, -$840 billion from peak in June 2022, to $4.93 trillion, the lowest since March 2021.The Fed has shed 26% of the Treasury securities it bought during pandemic QE (of $3.27 trillion).Treasury notes (2- to 10-year securities) and bonds (20- & 30-year securities) “roll off” the balance sheet mid-month or at the end of the month when they mature and the Fed gets paid face value for them. The roll-off is capped at $60 billion per month, and about that much has been rolling off, minus the inflation protection the Fed earns on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) which is added to the principal of the TIPS. In months when the roll-off of notes and bonds is less than the cap of $60 billion, the Fed lets short-term Treasury securities (1-year or less) roll off in the amount of the shortage to get to the $60-billion cap.These T-bills are included in the overall Treasury securities of $4.93 trillion on the Fed’s balance sheet. But by looking at them separately, we can easily see which month, and by how much, the roll-off of T-notes and T-bonds is less than $60 billion.When QT started, the Fed had $326 billion in T-bills that it constantly replaced as they matured by buying new T-bills at auctions (in the auction results, “SOMA” is the Fed). This is evidenced by the flat line in the chart below.In September, the Fed needed to let $20 billion in T-bills roll off to make up for the $20 billion by which the roll-off of T-notes and bonds was below the $60 billion cap.Since the beginning of QT in June 2022, the Fed has burned through $67 billion of its $328-billion stash of T-bills to keep the roll-off at the cap of $60 billion. So just looking at the chart, we can guess that the Fed has enough T-bills to keep the roll-off at $60 billion for about two years. Once the T-bills are burned off, the roll-off will decline to whatever pace the then much smaller amounts of T-notes and bonds roll off.
• As % of gross national debt: The Fed’s holdings are now down to 14.7% of total Treasury securities outstanding at the end of September, down from 19.1% at the peak. The drop in the percentage is a result of the QT drop in Treasury securities on the Fed’s balance sheet, and the gigantic leap in the gross national debt to $33.4 trillion, amid a tsunami of new issuance of Treasury securities.
• Mortgage-Backed Securities: -$19 billion in September, -$260 billion from the peak, to $2.48 trillion, the lowest since September 2021.The Fed only holds government-backed MBS, and taxpayers carry the credit risk. MBS come off the balance sheet primarily via pass-through principal payments that holders receive when mortgages are paid off (mortgaged homes are sold, mortgages are refinanced) and when mortgage payments are made. The spike in mortgage rates has caused home sales to plunge and refis to collapse, which slowed the mortgage payoffs, and therefore the pass-through principal payments to a trickle. So the MBS run-off has been between $15 billion and $21 billion a month, well below the $35-billion cap.

Fed policymakers see rates staying high for 'some time' (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve officials say that monetary policy will need to stay restrictive for "some time" to bring inflation back down to the Fed's 2% target, but their unity around that phrase masks an ongoing debate over another possible rate hike this year. "I remain willing to support raising the federal funds rate at a future meeting if the incoming data indicates that progress on inflation has stalled or is too slow to bring inflation to 2% in a timely way," Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said Monday in prepared remarks to a banking conference. Despite considerable progress, she said, "Inflation continues to be too high, and I expect it will likely be appropriate for the (Fed) to raise rates further and hold them at a restrictive level for some time." Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, is down from around 9% last year to around 3.7% at last read, slowed at least in part by the Fed's 5.25 percentage points of interest-rate increases over the last 18 months. The Fed targets 2% inflation. Given that progress, U.S. central bankers last month opted to keep the policy rate in its current 5.25%-5.50% range even as most signaled another rate hike would likely be needed before year's end. Speaking at a separate event in New York on Monday, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said he believes rates are now "at or very near" a sufficiently restrictive level. "In my view, the most important question at this point is not whether an additional rate increase is needed this year or not, but rather how long we will need to hold rates at a sufficiently restrictive level to achieve our goals," Barr said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Forecasters Club of New York. "I expect it will take some time." Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who on Monday was visiting York, Pennsylvania to get an up-close view of how businesses and workers are experiencing the economy, last month also said restrictive policy would be needed "for some time," as did the influential chief of the New York Fed, John Williams, on Friday.Meanwhile, speaking Monday evening, Cleveland Fed leader Loretta Mester also said the Fed's work is likely not done. “I suspect we may well need to raise the fed funds rate once more this year and then hold it there for some time as we accumulate more information on economic developments and assess the effects of the tightening in financial conditions that has already occurred,” Mester said in a speech to a group in Cleveland. Fed forecasts published last month show there is some divergence - though as a group they expect fewer rate cuts next year than they did in June, only a bare majority see rates ending 2024 any higher than 5%, with 9 of 19 policymakers expecting them to be lower. The same Fed forecasts also show policymakers as a group expect stronger economic growth and a stronger job market than they had expected just three months earlier. But they also made only small adjustments to their forecasts for inflation. "The only way to square those would be to have a somewhat higher-for-longer rate path," Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said in an interview on Bloomberg's "Odd Lots" podcast conducted last Thursday but aired Monday. "I think there is case to be made that the U.S. economy is a lot more resilient than we thought it was, resilient to interest rate hikes, resilient to all the shocks we've talked about." Even so, he said, "One of the things I liked about our posture coming out of the last meeting is that, with demand relatively strong by all accounts, the labor market still relatively strong, and inflation cooling, we have the latitude to say, let's see how this develops."

Fed officials largely sanguine about rise in US bond yields (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials on Thursday indicated little concern that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields could imperil a "soft landing" for the economy, and said it could actually help the central bank in its fight against inflation. The Fed held its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range last month, but signaled that one more quarter-percentage-point hike would likely be needed before the end of this year to cement inflation's downward path, and that the policy rate would probably end next year above 5%. In the weeks since the Sept. 19-20 meeting, long-term borrowing rates have risen sharply in a move that Fed policymakers and some analysts say shows markets are buying into the central bank's "higher-for-longer" rate projections. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit a 16-year high of 4.8% earlier this week, up from around 4.4% when Fed policymakers met last month. "If we continue to see a cooling labor market and inflation heading back to our target, we can hold interest rates steady and let the effects of policy continue to work," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told the Economic Club of New York. And with long-term rates up, she added, "the need for us to take further action is diminished because financial markets are already moving in that direction and they've done the work. We don't need to do it more." Higher long-term borrowing costs discourage hiring and investment and slow the economy, easing inflation pressures. The rise in U.S. bond yields, while steep, has not been disorderly, Daly said, adding "so far, so good." Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee had a similar view, saying that while the timing of the increase in bond yields was sudden, the upward move itself "is not a puzzle." Speaking on a Bloomberg podcast that was recorded on Tuesday and aired on Thursday, Goolsbee said, "it's clear that the long rates coming up is what you'd expect" when recession fears that were prevalent earlier this year have abated. The Fed's tightening - it has lifted the policy rate by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022 - has helped bring inflation down from a 40-year high last summer without the surge in unemployment that usually accompanies such a trajectory. And banking sector stress that erupted with the failure of California-based Silicon Valley Bank seven months ago did not create a credit crunch or send the economy into a tailspin, as Goolsbee and other Fed policymakers initially had feared. "On the real side I feel like nothing has happened so far that is convincing evidence that we are off the golden path" where inflation heads toward the Fed's 2% goal without a recession, Goolsbee said. Inflation by the Fed's preferred gauge was 3.5% in August, about half its peak from last year, while unemployment was 3.8% in August, compared with 3.7% a year earlier.

Yellen says higher-for-longer scenario is 'By no means a given' - — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said a surprisingly resilient US economy has prompted investors to question what it will take to bring inflation down, but she cast doubt on whether that would force interest rates to stay elevated for a long period. "People are trying to figure out exactly what it's going to take to keep inflation moving down," Yellen said Tuesday in a moderated discussion at the Fortune CEO Initiative conference in Washington. "And the economic resilience that they see maybe suggest higher for longer, but we'll see. I think it's by no means a given." Yellen also said that it's possible that higher rates of investment spending — such as on the green-energy transition — could imply higher interest rates over the longer haul. At the same time, the structural forces that held rates down in recent decades — such as demographic trends — remain "alive and well." "The answer is, I don't know," whether bond yields will stay high over the longer run, Yellen said. "It's a great question and it's one that's very much on my and the administration's minds." Yellen also said that it's critical to maintain a "sustainable fiscal policy." She said the current level of debt is manageable — as measured by how much the US spends each year to finance the federal debt as a share of gross domestic product, and adjusted for inflation. But she also indicated that higher long-term rates could pose a threat. "The forecast we've made assumes that interest rates will rise toward more normal levels, but we are seeing a pretty significant increase in nominal" rates, she said. Yellen also said that she's "very optimistic" about the outlook for the US economy. "Consumer spending remains strong, investment spending is solid" and the housing market has stabilized and "seems to be moving up," she said. "Short term inflation is coming down in the context of an extremely strong labor market," she also said. Yellen's comments come just a couple of days after a last-minute deal was struck to avoid a government shutdown, something the Treasury chief had warned could threaten the economic outlook. She said that, now, "it's urgent that Congress allocate funds for Ukraine — that hasn't been done. That's really our focus."

20-Year Treasury Yield Spikes to 5.13%. Yield Curve Gets Ready to Uninvert. Juicy Yields Tempt, but Bloodbath May Not Be Over by Wolf Richter --- “Fed hikes till something breaks.” But honey, the biggest thing has already broken: price stability. And the Fed is trying to fix it. The unloved 20-year Treasury yield – “unloved” because it has been higher than the 30-year yield ever since the 20-year Treasury security was introduced in May 2020 – spiked 13 basis points today, after rising 8 basis points yesterday, to close at 5.13%, making it the first of the long-term yields to blow over the 5% line. Over the past two weeks, the 20-year yield has spiked by 56 basis points. When bond yields rise, bond prices fall, and so this has been a bloodbath for existing bond holders. Future buyers are ogling the juicy 20-year yields and are licking their chops. But they don’t want to get caught up in the next bloodbath either. Because it has been one bloodbath after another, interrupted by sucker rallies. The 20-year yield has now nearly caught up with the two-year yield, which rose to 5.15%, putting this portion of the yield curve within a hair – within just 2 basis points – of uninverting. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 12 basis points today to 4.81%, the highest since August 2007. Over the past two weeks, it has spiked by 49 basis points. But wait… We’re just not used to these yields anymore. Back in the more normal times before QE, the 5% range was pretty common and low-ish even. For most of the 1990s, the 10-year yield was above 5%. So here is the long-term view of the 10-year yield: The spread between the two-year yield and the 10-year yield has now narrowed to 34 basis points, the narrowest since October 27, 2022. This portion of the yield curve had inverted in July 2022, when the Fed aggressively pushed up the short-term rates with 75-basis-point hikes, while the long-term bond market was in total denial amid widespread pivot-mongering. The inversion of the yield curve back then was another item, one of many items, that put us here at WOLF STREET on intense recession watch, and we’re still on recession watch, and there’s still no recession, far from it, the economy seems to have accelerated in Q3. Markets are finally reading the Fed’s memo: higher for longer. That memo has been circulating for about a year, but folks have shuffled it around and buried it under stuff, and never got around to reading it. But the Fed governors, and Chair Powell himself, are now a constant ebb-and-flow of higher-for-longer. And so markets dug up the memo and they’re reading it, and it says, rates are going higher, and they’re staying higher because inflation is turning out to be tricky and nasty, and it comes and goes, and moves between different categories of goods and services, and it dishes up head-fakes and drives people nuts. And there is still all this QE liquidity sloshing around, doing all kinds of weird stuff to prices and fueling demand and inflation and the economy, despite the higher rates, and so the recession that should have come in late 2022 or at least in 2023 called in and canceled, and it said it might set a new date for later. Everyone is trying to figure this out. “… Till something breaks.” But honey, the biggest thing has already broken: price stability. On Wall Street, the meme is that the Fed will hike “until something breaks,” but the biggest thing that the Fed is in charge of, price stability, has already broken into a million little pieces, and the Fed is now trying to glue it back together with rate hikes and by removing the QE liquidity from the markets. With its QT, it has already removed nearly $1 trillion in liquidity, but that’s just drop in bucket, so to speak.And it’s not the economy that is sending stocks and bonds skidding – the economy is plugging right along and looks to have accelerated in Q3. What is sending stocks and bonds skidding is QT and these higher yields, but particularly QT. I discussed all this in my podcast on Sunday, THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Stocks, Bonds & CRE Face QT.Fed heads talked, market listened: another rate hike this year. Amid the constant speeches by Fed governors, there are some disagreements about whether another hike, or even more rate hikes, plural, are needed now, or whether the Fed could wait a while, with more Fed heads making room for another hike. They’re all singing from the same page that the Fed can “proceed carefully” and that rates are going to stay higher for longer.So it could be that we might get a rate hike with a couple of dissenters, that preferred no hike, which might signal that 5.75% at the top of the range — or a mid-point of 5.625% — might be it for a while.The three-month yield rose to 5.62% yesterday and stayed there today. At 5.62% the yield is now 29 basis points above the Effective Federal Funds Rate (5.33%), and is therefore now fully pricing in another 25-basis point rate hike by year-end.

The Yield on 10-Year Treasury Notes Hits a 16-Year High; Stocks Lose Ground in 8 of Last 10 Sessions; Treasury Announces Buybacks of Its Own Debt → By Pam and Russ Martens ~ The Fed’s problem and the U.S. Treasury’s problem just became the problem of every American who has their retirement savings stuffed in the stock market via 401(k) plans or direct holdings.As the chart above shows in crisp terms, stocks do not like yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rising to a level that is competitive with the return on stocks – especially since the principal on the Treasury note is guaranteed at maturity while the principal in the stock market is guaranteed to take one’s stomach on a roller coaster ride.Last evening, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note had spiked to a yield of 4.682 percent, its highest yield since 2007. As of early this morning, its yield had spiked even higher, to 4.738 percent, making a 5 percent handle increasingly possible.In response to the competition from Treasury securities and chaos in running the U.S. government, stocks have sold off in 8 of the last 10 trading sessions through Monday.The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which closed last year at a level of 33,147.25, closed yesterday at 33,433.35, a negligible gain of less than 1 percent. The Russell 2000 index of small caps went negative yesterday on a year-to-date basis. Only the two indices with heavy weightings from the Big Tech bubble are showing solid gains year-to-date: the S&P 500 is up 11 percent while the Nasdaq Composite has soared by 26 percent. Part of the ongoing problem for the stock market – regardless of what the Fed does with further interest rate hikes – is that Treasury supply is growing and requiring higher yields to attract demand.In its quarterly refunding statement for the third quarter, the Treasury said it planned to issue $671 billion of debt, which was $178 billion more than the amount of Treasury securities that were maturing.The projection for the fourth quarter of this year is even more sobering. The Treasury shows it has $582.45 billion of Treasury debt maturing, but plans to issue $921 billion – or $338.55 billion of new debt. On September 21, the U.S. Treasury’s Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets, Josh Frost, delivered a speech in which he indicated that “we expect that further gradual increases in coupon auctions sizes will likely be necessary in future quarters.” Frost also indicated that the Treasury is, apparently, going to join the thinking of the wizards at the Wall Street mega banks who prop up their banks’ share prices by spending tens of billions of dollars a year buying back their own stock. Frost shared the following with his audience: The Fed, as you might recall, called its Treasury buyback program Quantitative Easing or QE for short. The Fed is now attempting to whittle itself out of the $9 trillion mess to its balance sheet that resulted from that radical experiment by shrinking its balance sheet. So far, it’s whittled away about $1 trillion. Which means that a new buyer of last resort for Treasury securities is needed. But should that really be the same entity that is issuing the debt in the first place? If the Treasury has the money to buy back its debt, why is it issuing the debt? Adding to the double speak, Frost said this during his speech on September 21: “Unlike the Federal Reserve System, which can finance purchases of securities by creating reserves, each dollar of buybacks needs to be financed with a dollar of Treasury issuance, all else equal. This limits our ability to rapidly increase the size of buybacks to a level potentially necessary to alleviate market stress without resulting in significant costs for the taxpayer, as a corresponding rapid rise in Treasury issuance could materially increase our financing costs during these periods.” To put this more bluntly, don’t expect the Treasury to perform the same magic alchemy in the markets as the Fed, which can create trillions of dollars in buying support at the push of an electronic button. (See Federal Reserve Spokesman Explains How It Creates Money Out of Thin Air to Pump Out to Wall Street.)

Gaetz moves to oust Speaker McCarthy --Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) on Monday moved to force a vote on ousting Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), following through with his pledge to do so after the Speaker put a “clean” continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government on the House floor. Gaetz — a top McCarthy antagonist — unveiled a resolution on the floor to declare the office of the Speaker of the House of Representatives to be vacant following votes on Monday, capping off a day’s worth of anticipation. Standing up to make a question of privilege Monday evening, Gaetz kicked off a process to force a vote on the measure — moves that together are widely known as the “motion to vacate the chair.” “He doesn’t have my support anymore and he doesn’t have the support of a requisite number of Republicans to continue as the Republican Speaker,” Gaetz told reporters following his announcement on the House floor. It marks just the third attempt in House history to remove a sitting Speaker — following an unsuccessful move against Speaker Joe Cannon (R-Ill.) in 1910 and one against Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) in 2015 that was also unsuccessful, but contributed to his later resignation. A vote on the motion to vacate the chair will have to be brought up within two legislative days. But it is likely that the House, rather than voting on the resolution itself, would first vote on some mechanism to kill or delay it, such as voting to table the resolution. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) and Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) said on Monday that they would support Gaetz’s move. Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) said that while he is still “praying about it,” he said that “my conscience is telling me to – to vote him out.” That number could tick up. Many of the 20 lawmakers who withheld support from McCarthy during the marathon, 15-ballot Speakership election in January haven’t made their positions public. McCarthy’s fate will largely hinge on how Democrats respond to the motion to vacate. If enough Republicans support the effort, Democrats could either oust him by voting with them, or save him by voting opposing the effort or voting “present.” Democrats have kept their cards close to their chests, telling reporters that they will defer to signals from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). McCarthy, for his part, is exuding confidence amid the effort to oust him. “Bring it on,” he wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, after Gaetz made the motion.

McCarthy responds to Gaetz’s motion to vacate Speaker: ‘Bring it on’ --House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) fired back at Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-Fla.) motion to force a vote on ousting him from the Speakership, writing “Bring it on” on social media just minutes after the motion was filed.Gaetz responded to McCarthy in a post on X, writing, “Just did.” Gaetz filed a motion to vacate McCarthy’s Speakership on Monday night, making good on his long-promised threat. The move is not much of a surprise after Gaetz told CNN a day earlier he intended to file the motion this week, which comes after McCarthy backed a measure to prevent a government shutdown over the weekend that won broad bipartisan support.McCarthy has appeared confident in his ability to fight Gaetz’s efforts, telling reporters Monday morning that his support within the House GOP conference is “very strong.” On Sunday, McCarthy told CBS News he “will survive,” calling it something personal with the Florida lawmaker.A motion to vacate the chair will have to take place within two legislative days, though it’s likely the House will first vote on a mechanism to kill or delay the motion instead of voting on the resolution itself.The vote on Gaetz’s motion would only need a few Republicans if Democrats join the effort. The minority party would generally be expected to back such a motion, but it’s not clear what Democrats will do in this case. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) on Sunday said Democrats should not do anything for “free.”When pressed Sunday over how many Republicans he has behind him, Gaetz said he has enough that the only way McCarthy would be Speaker in a week is if Democrats backed him up.

Greene warns expelling Gaetz ‘will not be tolerated’ by GOP voters --Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) warned that a move to expel Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) from the House “will not be tolerated” by GOP voters. “And a Republican led effort to expel Matt Gaetz absolutely will not be tolerated by Republicans across the country. I can guarantee you that. Remember when 11 R’s voted against me and 10 R’s voted to impeach Pres Trump? Both the [motion to vacate] and expulsion plans are wrong,” Greene wrote in a lengthy thread on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. Gaetz revealed Sunday that he is planning to bring a motion to vacate against Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) this week after the Speaker worked with Democrats to pass a continuing resolution that would keep the government open. This comes after weeks of threats from the Florida Republican, who is also now reportedly facing some calls for his own expulsion. “I do intend to file a motion to vacate against Speaker McCarthy this week,” Gaetz said on CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday. “I think we need to rip off the Band-Aid. I think we need to move on with new leadership that can be trustworthy,” he added.McCarthy brushed off the threat from Gaetz on Sunday, saying that he will “survive” and that this “is personal with Matt.”Fox News reported that some House Republicans are seeking to expel Gaetz if the Ethics Committee reports wrongdoing by Gaetz. It would take a two-thirds majority to expel a member from the House, but the Republicans are only holding onto a slim majority. CNN also reported that one Republican lawmaker said that Gaetz could be expelled depending on the Ethics Committee findings, telling the outlet that “We want him out.”Greene said that while she agrees with Gaetz that “things must change,” she opposes a motion to vacate, saying that it would give “the upper hand to the Democrats.”“I don’t agree that a motion to vacate will effectively create the changes needed to solve the intentional systemic failure that create the annual never ending CR’s and Christmas omnibus mega spending packages,” she wrote on X.

'Let Them Wallow in Their Pigsty': Unified Democrats Say They Won't Vote to Save McCarthy -House Democrats made clear Tuesday that they will not help GOP Speaker Kevin McCarthy save his leadership job as the chamber prepares to vote shortly on far-right Rep. Matt Gaetz's motion to take the gavel from the California Republican. "We are not voting in any way that will help Republicans," Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told reporters at the U.S. Capitol, pointing to McCarthy's actions in the wake of the January 6 insurrection and his continued support for former President Donald Trump, as well as his refusal to honor the bipartisan debt ceiling deal. "There is reason after reason to just let Republicans deal with their own problems," said Jayapal. "Let them wallow in their pigsty of incompetence and inability to govern." Confident in his ability to survive the Gaetz-led revolt, McCarthy is expected to call a vote Tuesday on the Florida Republican's motion to vacate. A majority of the House lawmakers present for the vote is required for the motion to succeed. At least six House Republicans have said they will vote yes on the motion, which would be enough to oust McCarthy if all Democrats also vote yes—though absences could impact the threshold. If the motion succeeds, a temporary speaker will take McCarthy's spot—and it's not yet clear when a new election will be held. In addition to Gaetz, the five other Republicans who have indicated they will vote to vacate are Reps. Eli Crane and Andy Biggs of Arizona, Bob Good of Virginia, Tim Burchett of Tennessee, and Matt Rosendale of Montana.

Kevin McCarthy ousted as House Speaker in historic vote (Reuters) - A handful of Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday ousted Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy, as party infighting plunged Congress into further chaos just days after it narrowly averted a government shutdown. The 216-to-210 vote marked the first time in history that the House removed its leader, with eight Republicans voting with 208 Democrats to remove McCarthy. McCarthy told reporters he would not make another run for speaker. "I fought for what I believe in," McCarthy said. "I believe I can continue to fight, but maybe in a different manner." The House looked set to go leaderless for at least a week, as multiple Republicans said they planned to meet on Oct. 10 to discuss possible McCarthy successors, with a vote on a new speaker planned for Oct. 11. Tuesday's rebellion was led by Representative Matt Gaetz, a far-right Republican from Florida and McCarthy antagonist who finally turned on the speaker after he on Saturday relied on Democratic votes to help pass a bill to avoid a partial government shutdown. "Kevin McCarthy is a creature of the swamp. He has risen to power by collecting special interest money and redistributing that money in exchange for favors. We are breaking the fever now," Gaetz told reporters after the vote. It was the latest moment of high drama in a year when the Republican-controlled House brought Washington to the brink of a catastrophic default on U.S. debt of $31.4 trillion and a partial government shutdown. Republicans control the chamber by a narrow 221-212 majority, meaning they can afford to lose no more than five votes if Democrats unite in opposition. McCarthy's ouster as speaker brings legislative activity in the House to a halt, with another government shutdown deadline looming Nov. 17 if Congress does not extend funding. The White House said it hoped the House would move swiftly to choose a replacement speaker, a position second in line to the presidency after the vice president. The vote left Congress in uncharted waters as it scrambles to update farm-subsidy and nutrition programs, pass government funding bills and consider further aid to Ukraine. It was unclear who would succeed McCarthy. McCarthy had repeatedly angered Democrats in recent weeks, including by launching an impeachment inquiry into Biden and on Saturday by giving them little time to read a stopgap spending bill to avert a government shutdown that he needed their votes to pass. Democrats could have saved McCarthy but, after considering it, said they would not help Republicans resolve their own problems.

McCarthy Won't Seek Speaker Position In Re-Vote; Trump Nominated By Nehls -- Newly ousted former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will not seek reelection to the post when the chamber convenes to select a new candidate.According to Just the News, "McCarthy was removing his name from consideration when the House convenes to select a new speaker." Following McCarthy's ouster, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) called the former Speaker a "feature of the swamp.""Kevin McCarthy couldn't keep his word. He made an agreement in January regarding the way Washington would work, and he violated that agreement. We are $33 trillion in debt. We are facing $2.2 trillion annual deficits," said McCarthy, adding "We face a de-dollarization globally that will crush Americans working class Americans. Kevin McCarthy is a feature of the swamp. He has risen to power by collecting special interest money and redistributing that money in exchange for favors."Meanwhile, Congressman Troy Nehls has nominated former President Donald Trump for Speaker.Here's where Goldman's Alec Phillips sees things:

• The House has voted to remove Rep. McCarthy as speaker. House Financial Services Chairman McHenry (R-NC) will temporarily serve as caretaker speaker (speaker pro tempore) until a new speaker is elected. Legislative activity in the House will temporarily cease as Republicans reorganize. Selecting a speaker in January took 5 days, and it is possible the next selection could take several days as well.
• Although possible, we think it is very unlikely that the House will remain without a leader until Nov. 17, when the recent extension of spending authority expires. In the unlikely event that the House remains without a speaker in mid-November, we believe the speaker pro tempore would have the power to bring another temporary funding extension up for a vote, though the rules are somewhat unclear on this point and would ultimately come down to a decision by the House Parliamentarian.
• All other things equal, the leadership change raises the odds of a government shutdown in November, though with several weeks left until the deadline, many outcomes are possible. With many policy disputes remaining and a $120bn difference between the parties on the preferred spending level for FY2024, it is difficult to see how Congress can pass the 12 necessary full-year spending bills before funding expires Nov. 17. The next speaker is likely to be under even more pressure to avoid passing another temporary extension—or additional funding for Ukraine—than former Speaker McCarthy had been.
• We continue to view a shutdown in Q4 as the base case, likely when funding expires Nov. 17. That said, while a leadership vacuum raises the odds of a government shutdown, we still view a prolonged shutdown (i.e., more than 2-3 weeks) as unlikely given the political consequences of certain aspects of a shutdown, particularly a failure to pay servicemembers, which occurs twice a month (the next pay date at risk is Dec. 1).

Who voted McCarthy out? These Eight House Republicans - The Washington Post -- Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was ousted as speaker of the House of Representatives after a small group of Republicans rebelled against their leader. It was the first time in history that the chamber had voted out a speaker. ith a tally of 216-210, McCarthy’s fate was sealed by the decisions of eight Republicans, including Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) who filed the motion against the speaker after months of threats — and the 208 Democrats who joined in favor. Three Republicans and four Democrats did not vote. These are the eight Republicans who voted against McCarthy.

• Rep. Andy Biggs (Ariz.) - Biggs, a long-standing conservative opponent of McCarthy’s, previously mounted failed challenges to his leadership. On Tuesday, Biggs said McCarthy had failed as an effective leader. “He has gone against many of the promises he made in January and can no longer be trusted at the helm,” Biggs said on X, formerly known as Twitter. Biggs vocally opposed the stopgap bill and instead demanded that the House move forward on all 12 GOP appropriations bills to fund the government in fiscal 2024. Advertisement “It allows you to reduce spending, get rid of wasteful duplicative programs. It allows you to set an agenda to restore fiscal sanity. We chose to not do it again,” Biggs told the floor. “This body is entrenched in a suboptimal path and refuses to leave it.” Months of bad blood between McCarthy and Democrats help sink his speakership
• Rep. Ken Buck (Colo.) - Buck is a member of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus, who said he voted to oust McCarthy for reasons of fiscal responsibility. “We cannot continue to fund the government by continuing resolutions and omnibus spending bills,” he said on X. In an interview with Newsmax, he also criticized McCarthy’s personal leadership style, accusing him of rewarding self-interest among lawmakers. “He makes sure that he hands out chairmanships and subcommittee chairmanships and special favors to a large group of people — and that’s the way the system works here,” Buck said Tuesday evening.
• Rep. Matt Gaetz (Fla.) Gaetz — the staunchly pro-Trump Floridian and most vocal of McCarthy’s critics — had threatened for months to oust the House speaker if he relied on Democratic votes to pass legislation. Two days after McCarthy passed a stopgap measure with Democratic support, Gaetz followed through on the threat, bringing the motion to vacate and kicking off the process that ultimately toppled McCarthy. In the chamber, Gaetz was booed by fellow Republicans and prevented from sitting with them during the debate. “I’ll make this argument at any desk in this building, from the well, from the chair. I’ll make it on every street corner in this country — that Washington must change,” Gaetz said from the minority Democratic side of the chamber. His decision to pursue McCarthy has cost him the confidence of fellow Republicans, The Washington Post reported — even putting him at risk of formal dismissal from the conference. “If they want to expel me, let me know when they have the votes,” Gaetz said.
• Rep. Nancy Mace (S.C.) - Mace, whose moderate views on abortion rights have previously pitted her against conservatives in her party, said McCarthy had not fulfilled promises — including those that would have helped women. After the vote, she wrote on X that McCarthy “has not lived up to his word on how the House would operate.” In particular, she accused him of being slow to hammer out a spending bill and failing to live up to promises on legislation around safety and women’s issues, as well as presiding over “chaos.” She told reporters that McCarthy did not keep pledges to her to expand access to reproductive health care, including birth control and rape kits. “I’ve made deals with Kevin McCarthy, with the speaker, that he has not kept to help women in this country,” she said after the vote.
• Rep. Tim Burchett (Tenn.) Burchett — who describes himself as a “fiscally conservative Republican” — said before Tuesday’s vote that he feared the country was facing “financial ruin.” He made the comment in a video filmed outside the Capitol and posted on X. Advertisement “We failed to do our job and then passed a temporary spending bill to extend the deadline like we do every year,” he said, describing McCarthy as a friend. “I hate to lose him as a friend, but I have a choice between that and my conscience,” he said. “My conscience tells me that we’re $33 trillion in debt.” Last week, Burchett suggested Republicans could pass a 14-day continuing resolution to avoid a shutdown, which would give them time to pass the appropriations bills.
• Rep. Eli Crane (Ariz.) Crane, a U.S. Navy veteran elected to the House in November, was a staunch critic of McCarthy’s decision to rely on Democratic support to pass Saturday’s stopgap bill. “I will use every single tool at my disposal to break the cycle of incompetency and dishonesty that’s been allowed to steamroll the American people for far too long,” Crane said on X on Tuesday, ahead of the vote. He is among a small group of freshman Republicans who self-identifies as a “Never CR” voice, meaning they have vowed to oppose continuing resolutions, or stopgap funding proposals. “I’m opposed to it because, in principle, it’s what happens up here consistently,”
• Rep. Bob Good (Va.) Return to menu Good — a former banker at Citibank — was one of about 20 hard-liners who initially opposes McCarthy’s bid to become speaker in January, denouncing him at one point as a member of the “swamp cartel” and accusing him of inadequately proving his conservative credentials. In a floor speech Tuesday, Good criticized McCarthy for relying on Democratic votes to pass the stopgap funding bill and avoid “a temporary discomfort and the pressure” of a federal government shutdown. “If you’re not willing to say ‘no,’ then you’re guaranteed to lose,” Good said.
• Rep. Matthew M. Rosendale (Mont.) Return to menu Rosendale, one of six Republicans who never voted for McCarthy in the January race to put him in the leadership post, said the then-speaker “violated his promise” to the Republican conference and the American people over the weekend. “Instead of putting pressure on the Senate, Kevin McCarthy sold every American short,” he said in a statement shared with Fox News on Tuesday, criticizing the House leadership’s decision to support the stopgap spending bill. Rosendale is a consistent self-described opponent of such continuing resolutions. “It’s not the way to fund government,” he said last month.

House GOP takes revenge on Democrats after McCarthy ousting - Allies of toppled former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) are fuming at Democrats for failing to back him amid his historic ejection — leaving Democrats arguing the GOP has no one to blame but themselves. Republican ire hasn’t just been centered on the eight members of their own conference who ignited and backed the vote to oust McCarthy, but also the Democrats who voted in unison to remove him. And Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) exacted some swift revenge — booting both Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) from their hideaway offices in the Capitol. The move came after McCarthy called out Pelosi, who is in California for the funeral of the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), claiming she failed to keep a promise made during his 15-vote battle for the Speakership to back him if his members ever sought to vote him out. Staff began cleaning out the office late Tuesday night. “It’s fairly petty stuff. And the odd thing to me is we’re getting blowback from moderate Republicans who really could have fixed this internally months ago and should have fixed it months ago, but they’re mad, they’re mad at the Democrats now for not bailing out McCarthy. I just find it, frankly, kind of immature,” said Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-Md.). “This is their caucus, their internal voting, their internal meetings. It’s really incumbent on them to take care of their own problem and take care of their own internal civil war.” Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.) told reporters Wednesday that Pelosi’s office space would be given to McCarthy. But the offices are just the physical targets of a GOP seething that Democrats enabled a coup from the eight Republicans. It’s an assertion Democrats wholly reject, noting that McCarthy has repeatedly capitulated to the MAGA wing of his party, including by launching an impeachment inquiry into President Biden — and by frequently failing to negotiate with Democrats, even as his job hung in the balance. Graves vented to reporters Wednesday, saying his colleague Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who spearheaded the movement, was “played” by Democrats. “Let me say it again, the House of Representatives is frozen. And it’s frozen because Matt Gaetz was played like a drum by [Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.)], by Nancy Pelosi and others … with just eight Republicans getting together with 208 Democrats. Every single Democrat in this chamber threw out the Speaker of the House with only eight so-called Republicans,” he said. But it was clear his frustration wasn’t just centered on the other side of the aisle, at one point calling Gaetz an “arsonist” and again dragging him for raising money off the whole episode. “If we’re going to continue to have clowns like Matt Gaetz as part of the Republican conference, as part of this Congress, then you’re going to have to have rules in place that prevent him from doing his charade. Every single week, every single month, where he goes out and he does his thing where he creates some manufactured crisis” that he then uses to raise money, Graves said. “I think this should be illegal. I think people should be in jail for this crap,” Graves said. “He’s the arsonist who lit the house on fire.”

GOP lawmakers deny revenge play against Pelosi with office evictions after McCarthy ouster --House Republican lawmakers denied revenge when evicting former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and former Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., from their secret Capitol offices. This week, interim House Speaker Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., booted both Pelosi and reportedly Hoyer from their hideaways — private offices in the Capitol that each senator and a select few House lawmakers have — after now-former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., was ousted from the role. However, several GOP lawmakers told Fox News Digital that the evictions were not rooted in vengeance, but rather because the office is reserved for the immediately preceding speaker. "This was a decision by Speaker Pelosi in getting removed because that is the office for the former speaker," Louisiana GOP Rep. Garret Graves told Fox News Digital on Wednesday. "She's no longer the immediately preceding speaker so that was a decision she made by evicting Kevin McCarthy," Graves continued. "That was her own decision." House Freedom Caucus chairman Scott Perry, R-Pa., said the evictions were not done in revenge but that it seems to him "unfortunately that we have an unexpected recent vacancy in this with the speaker's office and that speaker that's been recently the speaker now has to have a place per the rules." "So that [place] needs to be reoccupied or occupied by somebody different," Perry said. "That's just the that's just the flow of business here."

Republicans Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise launch House speakership bids -- Jim Jordan of Ohio and Steve Scalise of Louisiana announced Wednesday they would seek to succeed Kevin McCarthy as speaker of the US House of Representatives, after the Californian was brutally removed by his own Republican party on Tuesday. Jordan is chair of the powerful judiciary committee, while Scalise is the majority leader. Both had been named as potential successors to McCarthy, and they confirmed their intentions to run for the top House job a day after the speakership was declared vacant. Pitching his candidacy in a “Dear Colleague” letter, Jordan pledged to unify his fractious conference, which has repeatedly stumbled under the weight of a razor-thin majority. “We are at a critical crossroad in our nation’s history. Now is the time for our Republican conference to come together to keep our promises to Americans,” Jordan said. “No matter what we do, we must do it together as a conference. I respectfully ask for your support for speaker of the House of Representatives.” But Scalise argued he had the experience needed to unite the conference, after serving as part of the House Republican leadership team for the past decade. “I have a proven track record of bringing together the diverse array of viewpoints within our Conference to build consensus where others thought it impossible,” Scalise said in his own “Dear Colleague” letter. “We have an extremely talented Conference, and we all need to come together and pull in the same direction to get the country back on the right track.” Weighing in on the speakership race, Joe Biden expressed concern over the “dysfunction” in the House and emphasized the importance of continuing funding to Ukraine, which has become a source of outrage among hard-right lawmakers. Asked for his advice to the next House speaker, Biden laughed and said: “That’s above my pay grade.” Ukraine could become a central focus of House Republicans’ speaker candidate forum, which is scheduled for next Tuesday. Asked about his stance on approving more funding for Ukraine, Jordan said: “I’m against that … The most pressing issue on Americans’ mind is not Ukraine. It is the border situation, and it is crime on the streets.” Another sticking point for Republicans involves the mechanism that Matt Gaetz used to oust McCarthy, the motion to vacate. Under current House rules, any single member can force a vote on removing the speaker, and some of the more moderate House Republicans want to raise that threshold to avoid a repeat of Tuesday’s spectacle. “The ability for one person to vacate the speaker of the House will keep a chokehold on this body through 2024,” the Republican Main Street caucus, representing the centrist House Republicans, said in a statement. “Personal politics should never again be used to trump the will of 96% of House conservatives. Any candidate for speaker must explain to us how what happened on Tuesday will never happen again.” Jordan and Scalise are both hardline conservatives who may struggle to attract support from moderates – a fact not lost on observers after Gaetz and seven other hard-right Republicans chose to make McCarthy the first speaker ever removed by his own party. Scalise’s hard-right views – which have even seen him linked to the former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke – and his personal health could pose challenges as he seeks the gavel. Scalise, 57, walks with a cane, having survived a shooting at congressional baseball practice in 2017. He is also in treatment for multiple myeloma, an aggressive form of cancer. He has said the treatment is going well.

House Republicans face choice between chaos and convention - The race to replace Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the US House of Representatives is underway, and Republicans are currently being confronted with two very different choices that could represent two different paths for the party - and Congress itself. House Republican Whip Steve Scalise and House Judiciary Committee chairman Jim Jordan are currently the two most prominent candidates. While their policy positions are similar - both are staunch conservatives who oppose abortion and gun restrictions, support more stringent immigration policies, want to slash government spending, and back Donald Trump - the two have wildly different styles that could determine how House Republicans operate for the foreseeable future. Mr Scalise has risen through the ranks of the House Republicans through shrewd manoeuvring and an insider's ability to effectively whip votes. As the number two Republican in the House, ascending to the top leadership post is a natural progression for him. Mr Jordan, however, is far more of a firebrand, and has become a favourite among the Republican base for his distrust of the federal government and public displays of allegiance to Donald Trump. As a result, he has become far more associated with Mr Trump and the "Make America Great Again" movement. "The contrast between them is, Steve Scalise is more establishment, and Jim Jordan is more anti-establishment, more populist," said Laura Blessing, senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University. "You've got an establishment versus insurgent energy." In essence, Ms Blessing said, it was a choice between maintaining a semblance of the status quo that the House saw under Mr McCarthy, or heading towards a governing style laced with an obstructionist attitude. The next US Speaker will inherit a poisoned chalice Trump endorses Jim Jordan for House Speaker A deputy, an insider or Trump? The race for Speaker Congress now faces a November deadline to agree on legislation to fund the government and avert a shutdown. In Mr Jordan, Republicans have a candidate that "opens up a very real possibility of prolonged shutdowns or similar activity", Ms Blessing said. "If you are looking for someone who is more likely to avert shutdowns, be more of a voice for the establishment, that appears to be Steve Scalise," she said. Their reasoning for seeking the job has played out along these divisions. Mr Scalise is pitching himself as a Speaker who could work through the rancorous divisions in Congress, particularly among Republicans. "Look, the conversations right now are: How do we get back on track? How we come back together?" Mr Scalise told reporters Friday. "My background is somebody who's built coalitions, who has united Republicans to come together on really tough things." In a letter announcing his candidacy, Mr Jordan used more heated partisan language, saying: "Far-left progressive policies are destroying our communities, our security, and our future." The stylistic distinction is important, because their influence will be felt beyond Washington DC.

Curveballs keep coming in already-unprecedented Speaker’s race - Already in uncharted territory, House Republicans are navigating even more surprise waves as they race to select a replacement for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) next week. The normally internal, relationship-based process is getting a swath of outside attention — a reality that is not sitting well with many in the House GOP. Plans for a televised Fox News forum with the candidates were quickly scrapped after backlash. And former President Trump has weighed in with a preferred pick, after showing openness to being a Speaker candidate himself and sources saying he considered showing up at the Capitol for the Republican nominating contest. It has the potential to be the most competitive race for a party’s top spot that the House seen in decades — a dynamic that members must grapple with on a severely condensed timeline, with a looming shutdown deadline exerting pressure to quickly elect a Speaker that can restore normal business of the House. One of the few other times the House faced a mid-session Speaker change was in 2015, when around a month passed between Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) announcing his resignation and the House GOP’s internal nominating contest. Now, members have just more than a week between McCarthy’s ouster and their internal nominating contest set for Wednesday. “What we’re seeing is a very accelerated process,” said Matthew Green, professor of politics at Catholic University and coauthor of “Choosing the Leader: Leadership Elections in the U.S. House of Representatives.” “It’s like, super speed,” he continued. Two powerhouses in the GOP conference — House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) — are jockeying for the top spot in the chamber, reaching out to different coalitions within the party to secure support for the gavel. Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), the chairman of the Republican Study Committee, is also mulling a run for Speaker. All three contenders bring a different flair to the table. Scalise is a leadership veteran, having served in the highest echelons of the House since 2014; Jordan is the founding chairman of the influential conservative House Freedom Caucus and holds the gavel for the powerful House Judiciary Committee; and Hern, a newcomer relative to the other two, leads the largest GOP group in the chamber. “I will say I’m impressed with the number of endorsements these candidates have gotten so quickly,” Green said of Scalise and Jordan. “I call them both serious competitors. The problem, though, is that if you have leadership ambitions, you really kind of have to start like years in advance.” The competitiveness of — and widespread interest in — the race was on full display Thursday morning, when news broke that Fox News would hold a televised forum with the three contenders. Such an event would be highly unusual, given that leadership elections are normally hashed out hidden from the public eye. But those plans quickly fell apart as some lawmakers spoke out against the idea. Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez (R-Fla.) called the event “unproductive.”

Spartz says she’ll consider resigning from Congress -- Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) announced that she’ll consider resigning from her position if Congress does not create a debt commission by the end of this year. “I’ve done many very difficult things being one woman standing many times with many very long hours and personal sacrifices, but there is a limitation to human capacity,” Spartz said in a Monday statement. “If Congress does not pass a debt commission this year to move the needle on the crushing national debt and inflation, at least at the next debt ceiling increase at the end of 2024, I will not continue sacrificing my children for this circus with a complete absence of leadership, vision, and spine,” she added. “I cannot save this Republic alone.”Spartz is among the supporters of debt commission legislation introduced last week by Reps. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.), who co-chair the Bipartisan Fiscal Forum (BFF).Her threat to resign comes two days after Congress averted a government shutdown with the passing of a “clean” stopgap funding bill, which will keep the government funded until Nov. 17. Spartz was among 90 Republicans who voted against the measure.The continuing resolution includes $16 million in disaster relief funding, a figure the White House proposed in its supplemental request, but it doesn’t include Ukraine aid or border policy changes. In an interview with Indianapolis-based The CW affiliate WISH-TV, Spartz criticized the measure and said she was open to fellow Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-Fla.) push to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.)“This deal has more money, actually more money than Nancy Pelosi gave to Biden, but doesn’t have a plan to deal with the country’s crushing debt,” Spartz told the affiliate. “[The debt] is a very important national security issue, but unfortunately Republicans didn’t have the backbone to put it forward.”Spartz, a Ukrainian-born lawmaker, announced earlier this year that she will not run for reelection in Indiana’s 5th Congressional District.

Capitol Police deliver new update on Bowman fire alarm incident - The United States Capitol Police delivered a new update on Rep. Jamaal Bowman’s (D-N.Y.) decision to pull the fire alarm in the Cannon House Office Building on Saturday ahead of the House passing a stopgap measure to fund the government. The Capitol Police said in a Monday update that it is still investigating the incident, which it said took place at about 12:05 p.m. Saturday. The Capitol Police said its officers evacuated the people from the building, “floor-by-floor, while D.C. Fire & EMS responded.” While the Capitol Police did not identify Bowman in its update, it said “a man was seen trying to exit the door in the Cannon Building and then pulling the fire alarm that prompted the evacuation.” It also noted that officers “had previously placed signs with clear language that explained the door was secured and marked as an emergency exit only.” The update that the Capitol Police provided seems to address Bowman’s explanation for his actions. The New York Democrat has maintained that he pulled the fire alarm by accident, saying that he thought it would open a closed door. “Today, as I was rushing to make a vote, I came to a door that is usually open for votes but today would not open. I am embarrassed to admit that I activated the fire alarm, mistakenly thinking it would open the door. I regret this and sincerely apologize for any confusion this caused,” he said in a statement. “But I want to be very clear, this was not me, in any way, trying to delay any vote. It was the exact opposite — I was trying urgently to get to a vote, which I ultimately did and joined my colleagues in a bipartisan effort to keep our government open.” Republicans have accused Bowman of intentionally trying to stop the vote and have launched an investigation into the incident. They are also preparing to introduce legislation to expel Bowman from the House for his actions.

Leaked U.S. strategy on Ukraine sees corruption as the real threat - Biden administration officials are far more worried about corruption in Ukraine than they publicly admit, a confidential U.S. strategy document obtained by POLITICO suggests.The “sensitive but unclassified” version of the long-term U.S. plan lays out numerous steps Washington is taking to help Kyiv root out malfeasance and otherwise reform an array of Ukrainian sectors. It stresses that corruption could cause Western allies to abandon Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion, and that Kyiv cannot put off the anti-graft effort.“Perceptions of high-level corruption” the confidential version of the document warns, could “undermine the Ukrainian public’s and foreign leaders’ confidence in the war-time government.”That’s starker than the analysis available in the little-noticed public version of the 22-page document, which the State Department appears to have posted on its website with no fanfare about a month ago.The confidential version of the “Integrated Country Strategy” is about three times as long and contains many more details about U.S. objectives in Ukraine, from privatizing its banks to helping more schools teach English to encouraging its military to adopt NATO protocols. Many goals are designed to reduce the corruption that bedevils the country.The quiet release of the strategy, and the fact that the toughest language was left in the confidential version, underscores the messaging challenge facing the Biden team.The administration wants to press Ukraine to cut graft, not least because U.S. dollars are at stake. But being too loud about the issue could embolden opponents of U.S. aid to Ukraine, many of them Republican lawmakers who are trying to block such assistance. Any perception of weakened American support for Kyiv also could cause more European countries to think twice about their role.When it comes to the Ukrainians, “there are some honest conversations happening behind the scenes,” a U.S. official familiar with Ukraine policy said. Like others, the person was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.Ukrainian graft has long been a concern of U.S. officials all the way up to President Joe Biden. But the topic was deemphasized in the wake of Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion, which Biden has called a real-life battle of democracy against autocracy.For months, Biden aides stuck to brief mentions of corruption. They wanted to show solidarity with Kyiv and avoid giving fuel to a small number of Republican lawmakers critical of U.S. military and economic aid for Ukraine.

White House Says US to Send More Weapons to Ukraine 'Soon' - The White House said Monday that the US will be sending another weapons package to Ukraine “soon” to show continued support for the war after Congress did not include Ukraine aid in the short-term funding bill it passed over the weekend.“There is [a] strong, very strong international coalition behind Ukraine. And if Putin thinks he can outlast us, he’s wrong,” said White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre. “And so we will have another package of aid for Ukraine soon to signal our continued support for the brave people of Ukraine.”The last weapons package the US provided Ukraine was announced on September 21 when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was in Washington. The package was worth $325 million and included the second tranche of civilian-killing cluster bombs. According to the Pentagon, the US still has $5.4 billion in funds that can be used to ship weapons to Ukraine from US military stockpiles.Jean-Pierre did not say what might be included in the next aid package. According to several media reports, President Biden has agreed to arm Ukraine with Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which would mark a significant escalation since the missiles have a range of up to 190 miles. Reports have said Biden plans to send a cluster bomb variant of ATACMS to Ukraine, making the escalation more significant. The potential weapons transfer would give Ukraine the ability to target Russian territory with cluster bombs, which leave behind unexploded submunitions that can be found by civilians years or decades after their use.

White House warns of consequences if Ukraine aid lapses --The White House on Tuesday warned of the potential fallout if Congress does not pass additional aid for Ukraine after assistance for Kyiv was left out of a short-term government funding measure. John Kirby, a White House spokesperson on national security issues, told reporters that a lapse in military and financial support for even a short period of time could embolden Russia and leave Ukraine at a disadvantage. “It is imperative that we help them take advantage of every single day,” Kirby said. “A lapse in support for even a short period of time can make all the difference on the battlefield, just as creating such a lapse in support will make [Russian President Vladimir Putin] believe he can wait us out and that he can continue the conflict until we and our allies and partners fold.” Kirby argued that supporting Ukraine strengthens U.S. national security, and called it “the right thing to do.” The White House has in recent days been outspoken about its ongoing support for Ukraine and the need for Congress to hold a vote on additional aid for the country, which Russia invaded in February 2022. The U.S. has provided billions of dollars in military and financial assistance since then and coordinated aid with allied nations. The White House in August sent a supplemental funding request to Congress that included $24 billion in military, financial and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Lawmakers did not approve additional Ukraine aid as part of a 45-day measure passed over the weekend to keep government funding at current levels and avoid a shutdown. President Biden has been adamant that the U.S. will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes for Kyiv to win the war, and he has called on Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to hold a vote on additional funding, noting that there is bipartisan support for Ukraine. A minority of Republicans have expressed opposition to continued support for Ukraine, arguing it is not in the United States’ interest to help Kyiv in its war against Russia. But a majority of lawmakers in both parties have continued to support Ukraine aid.

Pentagon Tells Congress It's Running Out of Money to Replace Weapons Sent to Ukraine - The Pentagon has warned Congress that it’s running out of money to replace stockpiles of weapons that have been sent to Ukraine and has been forced to slow down the replenishment of the US military.The warning comes after Congress passed a short-term funding bill to avert a government shutdown that did not include money to continue fueling the proxy war in Ukraine.According to AP, Pentagon Comptroller Michael McCord told House and Senate leaders that the US military has $1.6 billion left of the $25.9 billion Congress has authorized to replace weapons poured into Ukraine.“We have already been forced to slow down the replenishment of our own forces to hedge against an uncertain funding future,” McCord said in a letter to congressional leaders. “Failure to replenish our military services on a timely basis could harm our military’s readiness.”The Pentagon also has about $5.4 billion remaining in Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows President Biden to ship weapons to Ukraine from US military stockpiles. The $5.4 billion is what’s left of the$6.2 billion that became available after the Pentagon claimed an “accounting error” that overvalued arms sent to Ukraine freed up more money to spend on fueling the war.McCord said the Pentagon is completely out of funds for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which allows the administration to purchase weapons for Ukraine and is meant as more long-term support. He said without new funding for the war soon, the Pentagon will be forced to restrict the types of arms being sent to Ukraine that are “critical and urgent now as Russia prepares to conduct a winter offensive.”The White House has asked Congress to authorize an additional $24 billion for Ukraine, which would bring total US spending on the war to about $137 billion. While some House Republicans who oppose the proxy war have made it difficult to approve more aid, the majority of Congress still supports the policy, and the $24 billion is expected to pass once brought to a vote.

Biden Tells Congress 'Stop Playing Games' and Pass New Ukraine Aid - President Biden on Sunday told Congress to “stop playing games” and authorize the additional $24 billion in Ukraine aid that he’s requested, which would bring total US spending on the proxy war to about $137 billion.Biden’s comments came after Congress passed a stopgap funding bill at the last minute on Saturday to avert a partial government shutdown that did not include money for Ukraine. The White House wanted the $24 billion in Ukraine war spending to be included in the bill.“We cannot under any circumstances allow American support for Ukraine to be interrupted,” Biden said. “We have time, not much time, and there’s an overwhelming sense of urgency … The vast majority of both parties — Democrats and Republicans, Senate and House — support helping Ukraine and the brutal aggression that is being thrust upon them by Russia. Stop playing games, get this done.”House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) stripped Ukraine spending from the stopgap bill due to opposition from a small but loud minority of House Republicans who are against the proxy war. House Democrat leadership said they expect McCarthy to call a separate vote on Ukraine aid.Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) said on Saturday night that McCarthy “made a side Ukraine deal with Democrats and didn’t tell House Republicans” until after the stopgap bill was passed. President Biden also said on Sundaythat he expects “the Speaker to keep his word and secure the passage of support for Ukraine at this critical moment.”Gaetz, who has been a staunch opponent of the proxy war in Ukraine, has been publicly feuding with McCarthy and said on Sunday that he plans to move forward with an effort to unseat the speaker. “I do intend to file a motion to vacate against Speaker McCarthy this week,” Gaetz told CNN. “I think we need to rip off the Band-Aid. I think we need to move on with leadership that’s trustworthy.”

Biden Worried About Ukraine Aid After McCarthy Ouster - President Biden said Wednesday that he was worried about the prospect of Congress authorizing more Ukraine aid after Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was removed as speaker of the House.“It does worry me,” Biden said. “But I know there are a majority of members of the House and Senate, in both parties, who have said that they support funding Ukraine.”While Biden is correct that the majority of Congress still supports the proxy war, House Republicans who oppose arming Ukraine do have significant power, as demonstrated by the ouster of McCarthy. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) launched the effort over allegations that a secret deal was cut with Democrats to bring new Ukraine aid to the floor for a vote after it was stripped from a stopgap funding bill.One of the Republicans who announced he’s running for speaker, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), has said he’s opposed to additional funding for Ukraine. Jordan has voted against aid for Ukraine going back to the $40 billion package in May 2022, the only stand-alone Ukraine aid bill. Because of his position, Jordan has earned a grade of “F” from Republicans for Ukraine, a neoconservative project that was launched to rally GOP support for the proxy war. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) has also announced his intention to run for speaker. Scalise has supported arming Ukraine, earning himself a grade of “B” from Republicans for Ukraine.Republicans are planning to hold a speaker election on October 11. According to Bloomberg, all legislative action is likely to halt until then, meaning President Biden won’t get the additional $24 billion he is seeking to spend on the war in the meantime.The president said that he will soon deliver another speech on why the US should continue to fuel the war. “I’m going to make the argument that it’s overwhelmingly in the interests of the United States of America that Ukraine succeed,” Biden said. “I don’t think we should let gamesmanship get in the way of blocking it.”

Congress Mulls Ways to Get Ukraine Aid Passed After McCarthy Ouster - In the wake of Kevin McCarthy’s ouster as House speaker, pro-proxy war lawmakers in the House and the Senate are mulling ways to authorize more Ukraine aid. According to Defense News, multiple senators have proposed passing a massive aid package that would fund the proxy war through 2024 so it would not be impacted by next year’s elections. This plan would mean passing significantly more funding than the $24 billion President Biden has requested.So far, Congress has authorized about $113 billion in spending on the conflict, which has covered about a year and a half of war. On Sunday,Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said it would take about “$60 or $70 billion” to get Ukraine through 2024, not the $24 billion. Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), chair of the Senate Defense Appropriations Committee, said the package they’re considering would fund the war for 15 months, bringing it into 2025. The package would help the Biden administration’s plans to continue supporting an open-ended conflict. Getting a massive aid package through the House would be difficult as Republican opposition is growing. But doing so would ensure that Biden would have plenty of funds for the proxy war during the 2024 election season when the opposition could grow even more. Defense News also reported that numerous House Republicans are floating the idea of tying the Ukraine aid to more spending for border security to entice GOP holdouts. Some House Democrats have expressed opposition to the idea, including Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA), the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee. “If you support Ukraine, get us a straight up-or-down vote on something to support them is what we’re pushing,” Smith said. The majority of Congress still supports arming Ukraine, so any package is expected to pass once brought to a vote. The challenge for the hawks is getting it to the floor in the House, where opponents of the policy hold significant sway, as demonstrated by McCarthy’s ouster. No legislative action is expected to happen in the House until a new speaker is elected, which could happen next week.

EU Says It Can't Support Ukraine Without the US - The EU’s top diplomat on Thursday said the European bloc could not provide Ukraine with enough support without the US amid uncertainty about when Congress might authorize the next tranche of spending on the proxy war. “Europe cannot fill the gap of the US,” Josep Borrel said after arriving in Spain for a gathering of European leaders, according to POLITICO. The EU is close to approving a new economic for Ukraine worth 50 billion euros that would cover 2024-2027, although Hungary could further delay the package. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the massive aid package should be approved within the next few months but said US support still remains crucial.Von der Leyen also said she was “confident” that the US would continue supporting Ukraine but acknowledged she wasn’t sure when new spending would be authorized. According to a report from The Wall Street Journal, the US has another tranche of economic aid worth over $1 billion to fund the Ukrainian government through the month of October. If a new aid package isn’t authorized by Congress in the next month, the funds will dry up. The Pentagon has said it still has $5.4 billion in funds to send weapons to Ukraine but has warned it’s running out of money to replace weapons sent to Ukraine. Because of the uncertainty, the Pentagon has said it’s restricted the flow of some arms to the US’s own forces. The majority of Congress still supports the proxy war, but it’s not clear when they will pass a new Ukraine aid bill after the ouster of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as House speaker. President Biden is looking for an additional $24 billion in spending and has acknowledged he’s worried about the situation, although he also hinted there are other ways to get the money.

The US Is Running Out of Money to Pay Ukrainian Government Salaries - The US will run out of money to pay for Ukrainian government salaries and services within the next month if Congress does not authorize more Ukraine aid, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed US and Ukrainian officials.The US and Ukraine’s other Western backers have been paying the salaries of about 150,000 civil servants in Ukraine. This has been done through a form of US support known as direct budgetary aid that is provided through the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the World Bank.According to the Journal, the World Bank has sent $23.4 billion to Ukraine through the program, with $20.2 billion funded by the US and $2 billion from the UK. USAID is expected to provide another $1.15 billion this month, but future disbursements are unclear.A recent report from 60 Minutes showed how the US economic aid for Ukraine is not just funding the government. The US aid also subsidizes small businesses and helps purchase seeds and fertilizers for Ukrainian farmers. The owner of a knitwear business in Ukraine spoke with 60 Minutes and acknowledged funding for her company was being provided by US taxpayers.The Journal report said that if Congress does not authorize the aid soon, Ukraine could use funds put aside for later spending to get through November and December, but prospects for 2024 are unclear. Other countries and the EU could also potentially increase spending on economic aid for Ukraine.

Ukraine Is 'Freaking Out' Over the Lack of New US Aid From Congress - Ukrainian officials are “freaking out” over the uncertainty about new Ukraine aid being passed through Congress, a Ukrainian member of parliament told POLITICO.“We are freaking out. For us it is a disaster,” said Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, an MP who chairs the committee on Ukraine’s integration into the EU. “We are interested in getting things sorted out so American democracy can function, and so we can restore the bipartisan consensus on supporting their own national interest by supporting Ukraine.”The ouster of Rep. Kevin McCarthy as House speaker means there will likely be no legislative action until a new one is elected. “Until a new speaker is elected, the House cannot vote on laws, but all other work, including in committees, continues,” Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova said in a statement on McCarthy’s ouster.Markarova said separately that there is at least $1.6 billion left for the US to arm Ukraine using the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which allows President Biden to send weapons directly from military stockpiles. However, the Pentagon told Congress there is $5.4 billion left in PDA for Ukraine, which became available thanks to an “accounting error” that overvalued previous arms shipments.Markarova also said there was $1.23 billion left in budgetary aid, which the US provides through the World Bank and pays for Ukrainian government services and salaries, among other things. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the US only has enough budgetary aid to pay for the month of October and that the funds would dry up if Congress doesn’t authorize more aid.

A Desperate White House Is Scrambling To Find Money for Arming Ukraine - POLITICO reported on Thursday that President Joe Biden was contemplating using State Department funds to ship weapons to Ukraine. Washington and Kyiv are beginning to panic as Congress did not pass Biden’s proposed $24 billion aid package to Ukraine in September.After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Congress provided the White House with several pools of funds to draw from for arming Kyiv. Most of the weapons shipped to Ukraine have come via the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) that allows Biden to order the Pentagon to ship American arms directly to Ukraine. Congressional funding allows the Department of Defense to purchase new weapons to replace those sent to Ukraine.It is unclear how much money remains in the PDA account. In June, the Pentagon reported it had uncovered an “accounting error” that freed up an additional $6.2 billion in PDA funds. However, the White House has started to burn through that money, and just over $5 billion remains.Additionally, Congress has authorized other funds for arming Ukraine. The Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) allows the Department of Defense to purchase weapons on behalf of Ukraine, and through Foreign Military Financing (FMF) the State Department gives Kyiv grants that can be used to buy American weapons. Congress earlier approved $4.6 billion in funds for the FMF of which about $650 million remains. POLITICO spoke with two unnamed American officials who said the White House wants to use the $650 million in the FMF program to ship arms directly to Ukraine. The Pentagon is also looking at what items in its budget can be reprogrammed for Ukraine, although the White House would need Congressional approval for this.The Biden administration is looking to use budgetary schemes to arm Ukraine as some members of Congress last week successfully prevented the body from passing a $24 billion aid package that includes $17 billion in military assistance. On Tuesday, Biden held a call with allied leaders and warned that “time was not our friend.” According to a White House official, the president expressed that “we cannot under any circumstances allow America’s support [for] Ukraine to be interrupted. Time is not our friend.” The next day, Biden said, “[The situation] does worry me.”A member of the Ukrainian legislature on Wednesday said people in Kyiv were beginning to panic. Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze told POLITICO, “We are freaking out. For us, it is a disaster.” She added, “We are interested in getting things sorted out so American democracy can function and so we can restore the bipartisan consensus on supporting their own national interest by supporting Ukraine.” As the American people turn against providing more weapons to Ukraine, a strong majority in both parties and in both houses of Congress continue to support sending billions of more tax dollars to Ukraine. Some in the Senate, upset by the rigorous legislative process slowing the aid bill, are proposing a massive funding package that will authorize over $70 billion in aid for Ukraine.

NATO Official Says the 'Bottom of the Barrel' of Weapons Stockpiles Is Visible - The head of NATO’s Military Committee is urging the alliance to increase arms production, warning the “bottom of the barrel” of NATO’s stockpiles is now visible due to the massive amounts of weapons and ammunition that have been shipped to Ukraine.Dutch Adm. Rob Bauer made the comments on the first day of the Warsaw Security Forum. He said NATO military budgets increased before the Russian invasion but that the Western arms industry did not increase production capacity.“And that has led to higher prices already before the war. And that actually has (been) exacerbated by the fact that we now give away weapon systems to Ukraine, which is great, and ammunition, but not from full warehouses,” Bauer said, according to TVP World.“We started to give away from half-full or lower warehouses in Europe and therefore the bottom of the barrel is now visible. And we need the industry to ramp up production at a much higher tempo and we need large volumes,” he added.Earlier this year, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Ukraine was using artillery shells at a faster rate than the entire alliance could produce, raising questions about the sustainability of the proxy war. The US and its allies are taking steps to ramp up production, but results are expected to be seen anytime soon.Bauer’s comments came after a British military source told The Telegraphthat the UK was out of weapons to give to Ukraine. “We will continue to source equipment to provide for Ukraine, but what they need now is things like air defense assets and artillery ammunition, and we’ve run dry on all that,” the source said.

US Transfers Alleged Iranian Ammunition Shipment to Ukraine - The Pentagon announced Wednesday that it had transferred a shipment of ammunition typically used in rifles to Ukraine that it claims was seized from Iran last year.“On October 2, 2023, the US government transferred approximately 1.1 million 7.62mm rounds to the Ukrainian armed forces,” US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a press release.The command said the ammunition was seized on December 9 off a vessel bound for Yemen. The US said the shipment was from Iran and was intended to arm Yemen’s Houthis. For their part, Iran denies that it arms the Houthis, and the Houthis also deny that they receive smuggled Iranian weapons.CENTCOM said the ammunition became available through civil forfeiture claims made by the US Justice Department (DOJ) against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).According to CNN, the DOJ is also seeking the forfeiture of more than 9,000 rifles, 284 machine guns, about 194 rocket launchers, more than 70 anti-tank guided missiles, and more than 700,000 rounds of ammunition that the US Navy allegedly seized from Iran.The US is looking to unload the weapons into Ukraine as NATO’s stockpiles are dwindling. According to a British military official, the UK has run out of weapons that it can send to Ukraine. The US is also running low on ammunition to fuel the proxy war, which the Biden administration used as an excuse to send civilian-killing cluster bombs into the conflict.

US shoots down Turkish drone that approached American troops in Syria - The U.S. military on Thursday shot down an armed drone belonging to NATO ally Turkey after it came too close for comfort to American troops in Syria, according to the Pentagon’s top spokesperson. Press secretary Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, who called the event a “regrettable incident,” said the drone came within less than half a mile of U.S. troops as the Turkish aircraft was bombing targets nearby in northeastern Syria. As American forces were forced to go to bunkers for safety, the drone was deemed a potential threat and was shot down by F-16 aircraft around 11:40 a.m. local time. No U.S. forces were injured during the incident, he said. Ryder added that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Turkish counterpart by phone afterward to reaffirm “our commitment to continue to closely coordinate,” adding that the talk was “fruitful.” Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. CQ Brown also spoke with his counterpart by phone on “the need to follow common deconfliction protocols to ensure the safety of our personnel in Syria following today’s incident,” according to Joint Staff spokesperson Col. Dave Butler. This marks the first time Washington has brought down an aircraft of the NATO ally.

Turkish Warplanes Strike US-Allied Kurds in Syria - The conflict between US allies continued to escalate when a Turkish warplane bombed sites used by Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria. Ankara and Washington are members of the North Atlantic alliance, and the Syrian Kurds have acted as America’s proxy force for several years. The strikes followed the US shooting down a Turkish drone in Syria that Washington says threatened American troops.On Friday, the Turkish military reported hitting 30 targets in Syria. The statement said the sites were used by the PKK, a militia of Kurds from Turkey. Ankara labels the PKK as a terrorist group. Two members of the group targeted the Turkish Interior Ministry this week. Only the attackers were killed, one died after detonating a suicide bomb.The strikes followed the US shooting down a Turkish drone in Syria. The Department of Defense said that some American soldiers were forced to take cover. On Thursday, Gen. Patrick Ryder, the Pentagon Press Secretary, said the decision to shoot down the drone “was made out of due diligence and the inherent right of self-defense to take appropriate action to protect US forces.”Ankara downplayed the incident and said it was due to a miscommunication in the “deconflicting mechanism.” Ryder explained the Pentagon does not believe Turkey was targeting American soldiers.Within Syria, the PKK is closely aligned with the YPG. The YPG is a Kurdish militia backed by the US. Under the banner of the Syrian Democratic Forces, the YPG rules the portion of Syria that is occupied by US troops. Ankara has launched several protests against Washington’s support for the YPG, which Turkey labels as a terror group that aids the PKK. American troops have armed and trained the Kurdish militia to fight against the Islamic State. However, since IS has lost its territory in Syria, the YPG has started to clash with Arabs who live in the Kurdish-controlled territory.

Biden Speaks with Netanyahu, Says Israel Has Right to 'Self-Defense' - President Joe Biden had a phone conversation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shortly after the Israeli leader declared his country was at war. The American President pledged US support for Israel’s “self-defense.” Fighting that started with a Hamas offensive in southern Israel, has led to over 200 Israeli and 230 Palestinian deaths.On Saturday, Hamas launched an attack from Gaza on southern Israel. The Palestinian fighters conducted a complex operation that involved thousands of rockets, paratroops, and taking over Israeli checkpoints on the fence that prevents residents from leaving Gaza. Videos showed cars and apartment buildings on fire in Israeli cities. The group was able to take control of several towns.Hamas said it launched the operation because of the treatment of Palestinians at the al-Aqsa Mosque. On Thusday, 800 Israelis stormed the al-Aqsa Mosque compound, while Tel Aviv’s security force prevented Palestinians under the age of 60 from access the third most holy site in Islam.The Gaza Strip is one of the most densely populated areas in the world, with 2 million people living in 140 sq. miles. Most of the people living in the area are refugees from other areas of Israel. Human rights groups have labeled Gaza as an “open-air prison” because of the Israeli blockade severely restricting travel and trade.Hamas claims to have captured dozens of Israeli soldiers. Unconfirmed reports say that the group also captured Israeli civilians. Videos show Hamas bringing captured Israeli military equipment back to Gaza. Israeli authorities say 200 people have been killed by Hamas.Tel Aviv responded to the offensive by mobilizing its forces. Israeli warplanes have targeted dozens of sites inside Gaza, including multiple residential high-rises. The Palestinian Health Ministry reports that 230 people have been killed by the Israeli bombing.Netanyahu said “We are at war, not an operation. Hamas has launched a murderous surprise attack against the State of Israel and its citizens.” He added, “I ordered first of all to cleanse the settlements of the terrorists who had infiltrated and ordered a large-scale mobilization of reserves. The enemy will pay a price he has never known.”

Pentagon says it will support Israel after Netanyahu declares war - Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the U.S. stands squarely by Israel and will ensure it “has what it needs to defend itself” after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war against Palestinian militants that launched a surprise attack on his country. Austin said in a statement he was “closely monitoring developments in Israel” and extended his condolences to families of the victims who lost their lives in the Saturday attack. “Our commitment to Israel’s right to defend itself remains unwavering,” Austin said. “Over the coming days the Department of Defense will work to ensure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself and protect civilians from indiscriminate violence and terrorism.” The U.S. is one of Israel’s staunchest allies and has provided around $3.8 billion a year to the country. Netanyahu declared war on Saturday against Palestinian militant groups after Hamas launched a surprise, multi-frontal attack inside Israel. Militants launched more than 2,000 missiles and stormed Israel from multiple directions after infiltrating the border. The most recent death toll has at least 250 Israeli deaths in the country, according to The Times of Israel and local media reports. The U.S. has condemned the recent violence and White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has discussed the situation with his counterpart. The latest clashes come after decades of violence between Palestine and Israel, which has only picked up in recent months following more controversial policies under Netanyahu’s far-right government against Palestinian communities.

Trump: Israel attack results of U.S. being seen as ‘weak and ineffective’ -- Former President Trump said that recent attacks on Israel by the militant group Hamas are a result of the U.S. being seen as “weak and ineffective” in remarks on Saturday. “The Israeli attack was made because we are perceived as being weak and ineffective and with a really weak leader,” the former president said at an event in Waterloo, Iowa. “All over the world things are not what they were just three years ago,” he added. Trump also said in an earlier statement on the attack that “Israel has a right to defend itself.” “Sadly, American taxpayer dollars helped fund these attacks, which many reports are saying came from the Biden Administration,” Trump said. “We brought so much peace to the Middle East through the Abraham Accords, only to see Biden whittle it away at a far more rapid pace than anyone thought possible. Here we go again.” President Joe Biden, Trump’s 2020 presidential rival and likely his 2024 rival, also released a statement in which he said the U.S. condemns the attacks. “The United States unequivocally condemns this appalling assault against Israel by Hamas terrorists from Gaza, and I made clear to Prime Minister Netanyahu that we stand ready to offer all appropriate means of support to the Government and people of Israel,” Biden said in a statement. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) went after Republicans on Saturday for their critiques of Biden during the attacks, calling the criticism “partisan hackery.” “This is partisan hackery at a time when we need statesmanship. Really bad faith,” Murphy said on X. “Trying to win cheap political points by shifting the blame away from the terrorists is a gift to Hamas right now”

Report: Saudis Determined to Get Defense Pact With US for Israel Normalization - Saudi Arabia is determined to secure a defense pact with the US in exchange for normalizing with Israel regardless of whether or not concessions are made to the Palestinians, Reuters reported Friday, citing regional sources. Riyadh is looking for a commitment from the US that it would defend Saudi Arabia if it comes under attack, similar to NATO’s Article 5, which outlines that an attack on one alliance member is treated as an attack on all. The US is not looking to go as far as an Article 5-style guarantee, but the Reuters report said Saudi Arabia “would not settle for less than binding assurances of US protection if it faced attack.” A formal US mutual defense guarantee for Saudi Arabia would risk reigniting the war in Yemen, where a ceasefire between the Saudis and the Houthis has held relatively well since April 2022. Such a commitment from the US also risks sparking another war as it would embolden Riyadh in the region. Saudi officials previously said normalizing with Israel hinges on the Palestinians being granted statehood, but they have backed down on that demand. The Saudis are still paying lip service to Palestinian concerns, but the Reuters report said it’s not a priority for Riyadh.\ “The normalization will be between Israel and Saudi Arabia. If the Palestinians oppose it the kingdom will continue in its path,” one of the regional sources told Reuters. “Saudi Arabia supports a peace plan for the Palestinians, but this time it wanted something for Saudi Arabia, not just for the Palestinians.” It’s unlikely the Saudis would be able to leverage concessions for the Palestinians toward a state under the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since his coalition includes extremist settlers who want to annex the West Bank.

Contempt for Press Freedoms: U S Officials Bar Tucker Carlson from Interviewing Putin - Tucker Carlson reports that the U.S. government prevented him from interviewing Russian President Vladimir Putin. Carlson told the Swiss magazine Die Weltwoche that he had sought to arrange an interview with Putin, but U.S. officials blocked him. “I tried to interview Vladimir Putin, but the U.S. government prevented me from doing so. Think about [the implications],” Carlson told the newspaper on September 24. Worse, according to Carlson, no one in the U.S. news media supported his right as a journalist to report on the Russian leader’s views regarding the Ukraine conflict.Such obstructionism reflects a growing contempt on the part of officials in the United States and other supposedly liberal democratic countries for freedom of the press. It is merely the latest episode in a lengthening parade of restrictions, ranging from petty to truly alarming. The highest priority targets are critics who dare condemn or even dispute the accounts that Western leaders put forth regarding key foreign policy objectivesEuropean Union governments have been even more brazen than Washington in their efforts to impede critics. Just days after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the EU banned the two most prominent Russian outlets, RT and Sputnik. The official rationale was that those organizations were Kremlin controlled and weredisseminating “disinformation” regarding the war in Ukraine. EU officials even ordered the removal of RT and Sputnik material from search engines.More than 300 million inhabitants of EU countries were thus deprived from accessing Russia’s views about the war or its causes. Conversely, EU authorities did not impose the slightest restrictions on the tsunami of propaganda coming out of Kyiv regarding the war. Such gross imbalance has been a transparent effort to rig public opinion on a major international issue.U.S. officials have been somewhat more subtle in their efforts to squelch dissenting views, especially on Russia, but they have been bad enough. The FBI, the CIA, and other agencies have engaged in a two-front assault on freedom of the press. One method is to emulate the EU and take direct action against alternative news outlets and other dissenters. The other strategy, which has become increasingly pervasive over the past decade is to pressure or collude with social media platforms to harass, marginalize, or eliminate sources that Washington dislikes. Such censorship by proxy is both insidious and dangerous.The FBI took a major step toward implementing the first approach in October 2017. FBI leaders created a new Foreign Influence Task Force (FITF) in the bureau’s Counterintelligence Division. The FBI subsequently considered any effort by states designated by the Department of Defense as major adversaries (Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea) to influence American public opinion as a threat to U.S. national security. Targets for suppression were not confined to publications and outlets that were indisputably under the control of one of those hostile powers.However, censorship by proxy has become by far the U.S. national security state’s preferred method. The U.S. national security apparatus has even actively assisted Volodymr Zelensky’s Ukrainian regime to undermine the constitutional rights of Americans. CNN noted a worrisome revelations in a July 2023 report from the House Judiciary Committee. “The committee says SBU [Ukraine’s top security agency] sent the FBI lists of social media accounts that allegedly ‘spread Russian disinformation,’ and that the FBI then ‘routinely relayed these lists to the relevant social media platforms, which distributed the information internally to their employees in charge of content moderation and enforcement.’”

US, Philippines Begin Annual Naval Drills Amid Tensions With China - The US and the Philippines on Monday kicked off two weeks of annual naval exercises amid heightened tensions with China in the South China Sea.The year marks the seventh and largest-ever iteration of the “Sama Sama” drills, which comes as the US and the Philippines are strengthening their alliance. More than 1,800 personnel will take part in the drills, including participants from Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Malaysia.The exercises will be conducted off the Philippine coast, near Manila and the south of the main Philippine island of Luzon. According to the US Navy, the exercises will include drills on anti-submarine, surface and air warfare, and land phases.Vice Adm. Karl Thomas, commander of the US Navy’s Japan-based Seventh Fleet, took aim at Beijing in a speech during the opening ceremony of the drills in Manila without directly mentioning China by name.Thomas said the so-called “rules-based international order,” code for the US-dominated world order, has been “ripped at and tagged at and tested to benefit not all nations but one nation.” He added that the drills “there’s no better way to ensure sovereignty and security than to sail and to operate together.”There have been several incidents this year between Chinese and Philippine vessels over disputed rocks and reefs in the South China Sea. In the most recent stand-off, the Philippine Coast Guard said it cut a “barrier” that prevented Philippine vessels from entering Scarborough Shoal at the order of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who has been much more confrontational with China than his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte.The US strongly backs the Philippines in its dispute with China and has repeatedly stated it will intervene if Philippine vessels come under attack in the South China Sea. That means if the maritime dispute turns hot between the Philippines and China, it could spark a war between the US and China. The commitment was formalized earlier this year when the US and the Philippines issued new guidelines for their Mutual Defense Treaty.

US Tries to Play Hardball with India -- As if it weren’t enough for Washington to drive Russia and China together, its with-us-or-against-us attitude is also alienating India and is providing evermore incentive for New Delhi and Beijing to put aside their differences. Washington is upset that India continues to play a central role in the development of BRICS, maintains strong and profitable ties with Russia, and generally refuses to follow neocon orders to be a US bulwark against China in South Asia. The US has tried to woo New Delhi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi since the outbreak of the Ukraine war while also not shying away from applying pressure. The latter is beginning to increase as the neocons in the state department grow impatient with New Delhi’s ongoing refusal to bend its national interest to meet US demands. Washington is responding the only way it knows how: by becoming more confrontational – an approach that will almost certainly only motivate India to work out its differences with China, grow even closer to Russia and work harder to fortify BRICS.The most recent dust up between India and the West involves the killing of a man in Canada. In June, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, an advocate for an independent Sikh state, was shot dead outside a Sikh temple in British Columbia. Some Sikhs in Indian diaspora communities support the establishment of an independent nation called Khalistan in the Indian state of Punjab. A failed insurgency there in the 1980s and 1990s led to a sizable emigration to Canada, the UK, and the US.Canada has accused New Delhi of orchestrating Nijar’s killing. India has denied the allegations and accused Canada of hosting Sikh extremist groups.According to the New York Times, the US provided the intelligence for Trudeau’s claims. Importantly, however, the US came out soon after and backed Ottawa. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called it a case of “transnational repression.” US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that India does not have a “special exemption” to carry out actions like extrajudicial killings. (note: The US killed up to 16,900 people in drone strikes between just between 2010 and 2020. Obama even whacked US citizens in Yemen, including a 16-year-old who was born in Colorado. Trump later took out his eight-year-old sister.) The FBI is also apparently warning Sikhs in the US that India might come after them too. Canada apparently did the same for Nijar, but as The Canada Files points out, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service has a long, suspect history with Sikh separatists: CSIS’ fingerprints are all over the 1985 Sikh separatist bombing of Air India 182 which killed all 329 people on board, 268 of whom were Canadian citizens. The bombing came after Operation Blue Star led to the massacre of 5000 to 7000 Sikhs in 1984. At minimum, CSIS knew about the bombing plot by Sikh separatists desiring the creation of a state called Khalistan from India’s Punjab region, and let it happen. After the bombing of Air India 182, in 1985, CSIS destroyed wiretaps of “critical wiretaps of Air India suspects”. 156 out of 210 wiretaps of Air India lead plotter Talwinder Singh Parmar’s phone calls, in the three months leading up to the bombing, were destroyed…

DOJ unveils fentanyl cases against Chinese companies and nationals - The Justice Department (DOJ) on Tuesday announced eight indictments against Chinese companies and nationals in cases involving fentanyl and the precursor chemicals used to produce the deadly drug.The indictments charge China-based companies and their employees with crimes relating to fentanyl and methamphetamine production, the distribution of synthetic opioids and sales of the chemicals used to make them.“We know that the global fentanyl supply chain, which ends with the deaths of Americans, often starts with chemical companies in China,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement. “The United States government is focused on breaking apart every link in that chain, getting fentanyl out of our communities, and bringing those who put it there to justice.” The indictments are in addition to prosecutions announced in June against China-based chemical manufacturing companies and officials in the People’s Republic of China.The new charges include eight indictments against Chinese companies and 12 against Chinese nationals, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco announced Tuesday.“As alleged in today’s indictments, the defendants used a range of trafficking tactics to ply their deadly trade and cover their tracks – from blatant online advertising and encrypted messaging apps to fake shipping schemes and bitcoin payments,” Monaco said.Monaco said Drug Enforcement Agency employees went undercover, posing as drug traffickers to identify shippers, while employees at the Department of Homeland Security surged resources to stop the shipments. The FBI and IRS tracked crypto payments and postal employees exposed a plan to deliver the ingredients, she added.Monaco also thanked the efforts of Mexican prosecutors who worked with the U.S. to track shipments of the chemicals.

Decades-Old US-Marshall Islands Agreement Lapses, Negotiations Ongoing - A long-standing agreement that gives the US military access to the Marshall Islands in exchange for financial aid and other benefits lapsed on September 30, The South China Morning Post reported on Monday. The Post quoted Cleo Paskal, a fellow at the hawkish Foundation for the Defense of Democracies think tank, who claimed that what just expired with the Marshall Islands was the “financial and federal services component” while the “defense right continues,” signaling the lapsed agreement does not mean the US has to give up its military presence. The Compact of Free Association (Cofa) agreement between the US and the Marshall Islands was signed in 1986. The US also has Cofa’s with Micronesia and Palau, but the Biden administration was able to negotiate a renewal of those deals.The issue with the Marshall Islands is that the Pacific Island nationwants more compensation and an apology for the 67 nuclear tests the US conducted on its territory between 1946 and 1958. “What the United States must realize is that Marshallese people require that the nuclear issue be addressed,” Marshallese President David Kabua said at the UN General Assembly on September 20.The Biden administration has pledged $7 billion for the three Cofa nations, including $2.9 billion for the Marshall Islands, but the Marshall Islands has not accepted the deal, and negotiations are said to be ongoing. Aumua Amata Radewagen, a delegate to the US House for American Samoa, told Voice of America that negotiators are hoping to reach an agreement this month.According to Howard Hills, who was previously a member of the US Cofa negotiating team, the only hold-up is the State Department’s legal view of the nuclear funds. The US paid a $150 million settlement to the Marshall Islands in 1986 that the State Department said was the “full settlement of all claims” related to US nuclear testing in the Marshall Islands. While the $150 million fell well short of what’s needed to clean up all the radioactive debris the US left behind, the State Department won’t let any funds be designated for that purpose. “If it were not for the State Department legal position, this could have been done in 2020. It could have been done in 2021. It could have been done in 2022,” Hills said.

US budget fight could create opening for China in the Pacific (Reuters) - A 45-day stopgap measure passed by the U.S. Congress to avert a government shutdown has left potential funding shortfalls for strategic Pacific island states, which analysts and former officials say makes the U.S. allies economically vulnerable and possibly more receptive to Chinese approaches. The Biden administration had hoped to see Congress endorse by Sept. 30 new 20-year funding programs for Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau, which after decades of relative neglect now find themselves at the center of a U.S. battle for influence with China in the Northern Pacific. The sprawling but sparsely populated nations have ties with the U.S. governed by so-called Compacts of Free Association (COFAs), under which Washington is responsible for their defense and provides economic assistance, while gaining exclusive military access to strategic swathes of ocean. The funding programs for the Marshall Islands and Micronesia were due for renewal by Sept. 30, and by the end of fiscal 2024 for Palau, and Washington agreed this year on a new package of $7.1 billion over 20 years, subject to Congressional approval. The stopgap "continuing resolution" (CR) that prevented a federal government shutdown does not include approval for this new program, however, and while it maintains federal services to the COFA states, it leaves holes in other parts of their budgets. "While keeping the services going is an important assurance, the CR will make things quite difficult in the Marshalls (which has an election on November 20) and Palau (election next year)," said Cleo Paskal, an expert on the COFA states with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank. "Both are countries that recognize Taiwan and are key components of U.S. defense architecture in the Pacific," she said. "Watch for increased (Chinese) political warfare spin around the U.S. being an unreliable partner." Paskal said Palau's funding under its existing COFA had dwindled as it approached its final year and it had been banking on funds from the new package to help cover budget deficits. Paskal said Palau's economy had already taken bad hits from COVID-19 and Chinese economic interference aimed at pressuring it to switch diplomatic recognition from U.S.-backed Taiwan to Beijing. There is no new money so far too for the Marshall Islands, which has yet to finalize new terms with Washington due to disagreements over how to address the legacy of massive U.S. nuclear testing there in the 1940s and 1950s. Meanwhile, China is waiting in the wings with ready cash.

US Signs Deal That Will Allow Military Deployments to Ecuador - The Biden administration has quietly struck a deal with Ecuador to deploy troops to the country and patrol the waters off its coast to combat drug cartels, the Washington Examiner reported on Friday.Select members of Congress were informed of the agreements on Wednesday during a closed-door briefing with Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso, who was in Washington to sign the deals.The State Department did not publicize the agreements, but a State Department official confirmed the deals were signed in comments to theExaminer. The maritime deal will allow the US Coast Guard to patrol waters off Ecuador’s coast, an area where Colombian cartels transport cocaine.The second agreement outlines the terms by which the US troops could be deployed to Ecuador, known as a status of forces agreement. The details of the agreement are not known, and it’s also unclear if it means a US troop deployment is imminent.“That doesn’t mean we’re doing it, but it means we can, and it means that they’re making a very clear signal to us that they want more us involved,” said Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), an ultra-hawk who favors military intervention against drug cartels.Earlier this year, Crenshaw introduced a bill that would authorize the president to use military force against “those responsible for trafficking fentanyl or a fentanyl-related substance into the United States or carrying out other related activities that cause regional destabilization in the Western Hemisphere.”

Biden administration to resume deportations to Venezuela - The Biden administration announced Thursday that it will start deporting people directly to Venezuela, a country where chaotic economic and political conditions have prompted about 8 million people to flee. Administration officials said Venezuelan authorities agreed to receive repatriations from the United States, but declined to provide details on any discussions with President Nicolás Maduro’s regime. The move is all but certain to raise concerns and condemnation from human rights advocates over the dangers Venezuelan deportees will face in the increasingly repressive country. The Biden administration has previously relied on third parties for deportations to Venezuela, for instance deporting Venezuelans to a willing partner nation such as the Dominican Republic, which would then conduct its own deportations to Venezuela. And the new announcement comes weeks after the Biden administration redesignated Venezuela for Temporary Protected Status (TPS), a program specifically designed to avoid deporting foreign nationals into dangerous situations. ADVERTISING The TPS designation allowed more than 400,000 Venezuelans who were in the United States as of July to stay in the country and work legally, an official recognition that conditions in Venezuela are too dangerous for safe returns. “We granted Temporary Protected Status for Venezuelan nationals who are in the U.S. as of July 31, a few weeks ago. And we, as a matter of policy and as a matter of historical practice, continue to remove individuals to countries that have TPS designations after the date of the TPS designation,” a senior administration official said. “So this is not something new or different from the long standing practice of this administration, and really all previous administrations.”

Biden administration waives 26 federal laws to allow border wall construction - -- The Biden administration announced it waived 26 federal laws in South Texas to allow border wall construction on Wednesday, marking the administration’s first use of a sweeping executive power employed often during the Trump presidency. The Department of Homeland Security posted the announcement on the U.S. Federal Registry with few details outlining the construction in Starr County, Texas, which is part of a busy Border Patrol sector seeing “high illegal entry.” According to government data, about 245,000 illegal entries have been recorded so far this fiscal year in the Rio Grande Valley Sector which contains 21 counties. “There is presently an acute and immediate need to construct physical barriers and roads in the vicinity of the border of the United States in order to prevent unlawful entries into the United States in the project areas,” Alejandro Mayorkas, the DHS secretary, stated in the notice. The Clean Air Act, Safe Drinking Water Act and Endangered Species Act were some of the federal laws waived by DHS to make way for construction that will use funds from a congressional appropriation in 2019 for border wall construction. The waivers avoid time-consuming reviews and lawsuits challenging violation of environmental laws. Starr County's hilly ranchlands, sitting between Zapata and McAllen, Texas, is home to about 65,000 residents sparsely populating about 1,200 square miles (3,108 square kilometers) that form part of the Lower Rio Grande Valley National Wildlife Refuge. Although no maps were provided in the announcement, CBP announced the project in June and began gathering public comments in August when it shared a map of the additional construction that can add up to 20 miles (32 kilometers) to the existing border barrier system in the area. Starr County Judge Eloy Vera said it will start south of the Falcon Dam and go past Salineño, Texas. “The other concern that we have is that area is highly erosive. There’s a lot of arroyos,” Eloy Vera, the county judge said, pointing out the creeks cutting through the ranchland and leading into the river. Concern is shared with environmental advocates who say structures will run through public lands, habitats of endangered plants and species like the Ocelot, a spotted wild cat. “A plan to build a wall through will bulldoze an impermeable barrier straight through the heart of that habitat. It will stop wildlife migrations dead in their tracks. It will destroy a huge amount of wildlife refuge land. And it’s a horrific step backwards for the borderlands,” Laiken Jordahl, a southwest conservation advocate for the Center for Biological Diversity, said Wednesday afternoon.

Biden stuns allies with border wall bombshell -- President Biden’s decision this week to move forward with border wall construction that Democrats have long denounced shocked allies and immigration advocates. The stunning reversal came just days after administration officials participated in an immigration roundtable at the Capitol featuring Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC) members and immigration advocates. The administration’s participation in the roundtable drew praise from CHC members; administration officials did not mention plans to restart border wall construction. CHC leaders called the decision “disappointing” Thursday. “While this border wall funding was signed into law by President Trump under Republican leadership, this decision is not in line with the current Administration’s commitments to end border wall construction. Republicans remain committed to building border walls that are ineffective, a poor use of taxpayer funds, and a strain on the local environment, endangering families and children who are fleeing from dangerous conditions and that seek legal asylum in the United States,” CHC Chairwoman Nanette Díaz Barragán (D-Calif.) said in a statement. A notice posted on the Federal Register on Wednesday waived a series of environmental and historical protection laws to allow for wall construction in Starr County, Texas, using funds appropriated in 2019 for that purpose. Biden told reporters Thursday that his administration moved forward with the waivers and construction to comply with a legal obligation to use the appropriated funds. “One question on the border wall: The border wall, money was appropriated for the border wall. I tried to get them to reappropriate, to redirect that money. They didn’t. They wouldn’t,” Biden told reporters in the Oval Office. “And in the meantime, there’s nothing in the law — they have to use the money for what it was appropriated. I can’t stop that.” Asked whether he believes the border wall works, Biden sighed, “no.”His explanation came more than 12 hours after The Associated Press first reported the story, based on the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) quiet announcement in the Federal Registry.

Biden criticized for waiving 26 laws in Texas to allow border wall construction | US-Mexico border -Joe Biden faced intense criticism from environmental advocates, political opponents and his fellow Democrats after the president’s administration waived 26 federal laws to allow border wall construction in south Texas, its first use of a sweeping executive power that was often employed under Donald Trump.“A border wall is a 14th-century solution to a 21st-century problem,” the Democratic Texas congressman Henry Cuellar said. “It will not bolster border security in Starr county.“I continue to stand against the wasteful spending of taxpayer dollars on an ineffective border wall.”Environmental advocates said the new wall would run through public lands, habitats of endangered plants and species such as the ocelot, a spotted wild cat.“A plan to build a wall will bulldoze an impermeable barrier straight through the heart of that habitat,” said Laiken Jordahl, a south-west conservation advocate for the Center for Biological Diversity.“It will stop wildlife migrations dead in their tracks. It will destroy a huge amount of wildlife refuge land. And it’s a horrific step backwards for the borderlands. ”During the Trump presidency, about 450 miles of barriers were built along the south-west border. The Biden administration halted such efforts, though the Texas governor, Greg Abbott, resumed them. A federal proclamation issued on 20 January 2021 said: “Building a massive wall that spans the entire southern border is not a serious policy solution.” On Wednesday, border officials claimed the new project was consistent with that proclamation. Observers were not convinced. Referring to a famous (and much-mocked) Trump campaign promise, Matt Stoller, research director at the American Economic Liberties Project, said: “Well Mexico didn’t pay for the wall, but Biden did.” Pointing to a campaign promise by Biden – “There will not be another foot of wall constructed in my administration” – Jason Miller, a senior Trump adviser, said: “Biden’s flip-flop here is not only a validation of President Trump’s border and immigration policies, but also a validation of President Trump’s entire 2024 America First campaign!”

Report from Lahaina: Maui fire victims face evictions, aid cutoffs - On Friday, Laurie Allen became the 98th official victim of the August 8 Lahaina wildfires, after fighting for her life for seven weeks at a burn unit in a Honolulu hospital, where she was flown for treatment. According to the accounts from her husband Perry Allen given to the New York Times, Laurie Allen fled from the fires with her landlady Conchita Sagudang, 75, and her son Danilo Sagudang, 55, who fell to flames after they had to abandon their cars and flee on foot. Allen barely escaped with her life, but 73 percent of her body was covered in third-degree burns, which she succumbed to after surgeons and healthcare staff attempted for weeks to care for and attempt skin grafts. Seven weeks after the fire, the tragedies continue to mount. On Friday, September 29, the Safe Harbor housing plan ended, threatening temporary housing for hundreds of residents. Safe Harbor is an American Red Cross program for relief after a natural disaster, and provides temporary housing to those affected. In the case of Lahaina fire survivors, thousands of residents have been temporarily housed in West Maui hotels and AirBnB properties. Charred remains of homes are visible following a wildfire in Lahaina, Hawaii, August 22, 2023. When the winds of Hurricane Dora lashed Maui August 8, they struck bare electrical lines the Hawaiian electric utility had left exposed to the elements. [AP Photo/Jae C. Hong] Anyone who had not applied or qualified for Red Cross relief will face further displacement. According to official numbers, an estimated 800 households faced potential expulsion from hotel housing Friday, receiving letters that they would need to vacate within days. Supposedly the expulsion could be cleared up by administrative action with FEMA, but the letters sparked fear among the already displaced. In the working-class neighborhood of Lahaina, immigrants including the undocumented are among those displaced by the fire. Fearful of immigration authorities and police, they are having a difficult time navigating through the hurdles and they do not have qualifying documents to maintain aid. For many more, they are too afraid to come forward and ask for help for fear of deportation. The World Socialist Web Site spoke with Eddie, who is currently assisting a friend facing expulsion from temporary hotel housing. He told the WSWS, “Right now I’m on my way to help a friend. When the fire came through, this woman had to leave quickly to save her own life. She doesn’t have papers or documents, things that the authorities are asking people to produce to qualify for aid. Well, she escaped and everything she had was burned in the fire. She has no documents.” “That’s not right,” he continued. “If you’re missing certain paperwork, you can’t get help. I don't think that’s fair. People may or may not have had documents but when the fire hit any existing documents for some people burned up. And now they are being expelled. It's way too soon to be doing this. People are still dealing with the trauma and are barely getting through. “The housing situation is a big issue right now, and it is definitely underfunded. Even consider the homeless of Lahaina. They are totally displaced. That bush or tree they slept under is gone, and they now have nowhere to go.”

Drug companies agree to participate in Biden Medicare price negotiation program - All 10 manufacturers of the first drugs selected for Medicare price negotiations will be participating, the White House said Tuesday, even as many of them are currently suing the administration in an effort to halt the process. Many of the companies told The Hill separately ahead of the Oct. 1 deadline that they would participate. The White House confirmed the news in an announcement, taking a political victory lap.Last year, about 9 million Medicare enrollees spent $3.4 billion out of pocket on the selected drugs from companies, including Johnson & Johnson, Merck, Bristol Myers Squibb and AstraZeneca, the White House said.“For decades, Big Pharma fought to block Medicare from directly negotiating lower drug prices for seniors and other Medicare beneficiaries,” the White House said. “President Bidenand Congressional Democrats finally beat Big Pharma and allowed Medicare to directly negotiate lower drug prices by passing the Inflation Reduction Act.”The drugs on the list are widely used for treating or preventing common conditions including heart disease and diabetes. They include blood thinners Eliquis and Xarelto; Januvia, Farxiga and NovoLog for diabetes; and Enbrel, for rheumatoid arthritis. Sunday was the deadline for the companies to decide whether they wanted to participate in the price negotiation program, and Monday was the deadline for them to submit manufacturer-specific information — such as research and development costs, as well as sales and revenue data — to the administration.The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services will send each company an initial offer by Feb. 1, and the negotiation process will continue until Aug. 1. The negotiated prices won’t take effect until 2026. More companies will be added in the future. Drugmakers have been fighting against negotiation since the Inflation Reduction Act passed last year, and there have been at least nine separate lawsuits filed across the country as part of the effort. A federal judge last week ruled denied an attempt by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to temporarily block implementation of the negotiation process, the first time a judge weighed in on the program. But the judge also denied the government’s motion to dismiss the case.The companies have argued that the negotiation process is unconstitutional and amounts to forced price fixing, which could lead to lower profits, less money invested in research and development and, consequently, fewer drugs on the market. The companies said they agreed to participate essentially because they had no choice.

Marcy Kaptur to J.D. Vance on UAW picket line: 'First time here?' -- Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) appeared to make a slight dig at her Ohio delegation colleague Sen. J.D. Vance (R) during an interaction on a United Auto Workers (UAW) picket line in their home state. “First time here?” Kaptur asked Vance, according to a video from local station WTVG 13 Action News.“First time here, yeah,” Vance responded.“Thank you for coming,” she then said. The brief conversation followed an awkward interaction during which Kaptur held out a fist as Vance extended an open hand for a shake. Vance then attempted to extend his hand for a fist bump as Kaptur drew her hand back. The two Ohio politicians were on a picket line at the Toledo Assembly Complex in Toledo, Ohio,according to a post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter by 13Action News. The plantappears to be aligned with Stellantis, one of the Big Three auto companies UAW workers are striking against.Vance has said that UAW members should compel President Joe Biden and the Biden administration to end the subsidization of the electric vehicle (EV) industry.

The Supreme Court opens its new term with a case about prison terms for drug dealers (AP) — The Supreme Court opened its new term Monday with a case about prison terms for drug dealers and rejections of hundreds of appeals, including one from an attorney who pushed a plan to keep former President Donald Trump in power. The court turned away attorney John Eastman’s effort to have a lower-court ruling thrown out that said Eastman and Trump had “more likely than not” committed a crime by trying to keep Congress from certifying President Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election. Justice Clarence Thomas, who once employed Eastman as a law clerk, did not take part in the court’s consideration of Eastman’s appeal. The only case argued Monday concerns the meaning of the word “and” in a federal law dealing with prison terms for low-level drug dealers. The length of thousands of sentences a year is at stake. “I think this is a very hard case,” Justice Amy Coney Barrett said during 90 minutes of arguments that did not suggest how the court might rule. The term is shaping up as an important one for social media as the court continues to grapple with applying older laws and rulings to the digital age. Several cases also confront the court with the continuing push by conservatives to constrict federal regulatory agencies. On Tuesday, the court will hear a challenge that could disrupt the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The court also is dealing with the fallout from major rulings a year ago that overturned Roe v. Wade and expanded gun rights. A gun case will be argued in November. Limits on mifepristone, a drug used in the most common method of abortion, could be before the court by spring. Among the bigger unknowns is whether any disputes will reach the court involving the prosecution of Trump or efforts to keep the Republican off the 2024 ballot because of the Constitution’s insurrection clause. Apart from cases, the justices are discussing a first-ever code of conduct, though disagreements remain, Justice Elena Kagan said recently. The push to codify ethical standards for the justices stems from a series of stories questioning some of their practices. Many of those stories focused on Thomas and his failure to disclose travel and other financial ties with wealthy conservative donors, including Harlan Crow and the Koch brothers. But Justices Samuel Alito and Sonia Sotomayor also have been under scrutiny. On Monday, Thomas did not explain his decision to stay out of Eastman’s case, which involved emails that Eastman was trying to keep from the House committee that investigated the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. Some of those emails, since made public, are between Eastman and another lawyer, Kenneth Chesebro, in which they mention Thomas as their best hope to get the Supreme Court to intervene in the election outcome in a case from Georgia.

Supreme Court denies Eastman petition, with rare recusal from Thomas -- The Supreme Court on Monday denied an effort by lawyer John Eastman to appeal a ruling that found he may have acted criminally with the legal advice he gave former President Trump. It spurred a rare recusal from Justice Clarence Thomas, whose wife corresponded with the California attorney in the weeks ahead of Jan. 6.A federal judge in California found Eastman as well as Trump “more likely than not” engaged in criminal conduct in hatching a plan for the former president to stay in power after losing the 2020 election, including in a memo that urged then-Vice President Mike Pence to buck his ceremonial duties to certify the election results Jan. 6, 2021.Thomas’s recusal comes after reporting that his wife, Ginni Thomas, emailed Eastman — as well as Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows and Arizona lawmakers wrestling with pressure from the Trump campaign — to look for ways to reverse the election.The episode resulted in Ginni Thomas being called to speak with the House committee investigating the attack, and also triggered a renewed look at Thomas’s failure to recuse himself from other matters relating to Jan. 6. The justice’s actions have further come under the microscope following reporting he accepted a series of lavish gifts from a Republican megadonor.The order says that Thomas “took no part in the consideration” of Eastman’s petition.The decision is the end of the road for Eastman, who has been fighting a ruling ordering him to release his communications surrounding Jan. 6 to the now-dissolved committee investigating the attack.The ruling from U.S. District Judge David Carter greenlighted release of his records, allowing for the piercing of materials normally covered by attorney-client privilege — something that can be granted only when a judge determined legal advice was given in furtherance of a crime or to carry out fraud.

Voters are unhappy, and that will be big trouble for Biden -- I’ve been thinking about that old James Carville line, about how in presidential campaigns, “It’s the economy, stupid.” I’ve been thinking about that line because while campaigns are never about just one thing, this time around they’re about a whole bunch of things — things that Americans notice even if they’re not news junkies, the kind of things that could spell big trouble for Joe Biden, or whoever the Democratic nominee turns out to be.They can’t help but notice the mess on our southern border where thousands of illegal immigrants enter the United States each day, tens of thousands each month, and millions each year. They know that it’s not only El Paso’s problem anymore. When immigrants from Central America, and points way beyond, started flooding into New York and other “sanctuary” cities a long way from the border, you knew Joe Biden was going to have a problem. A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll found that Biden gets only a 23 percent approval rating when it comes to his handling of illegal immigration.And they notice crime. They notice stores that have shut down because looters walk in and walk out with whatever they want — and if on the outside chance they get arrested, wind up with a slap on the wrist and no jail time. And there’s an impression, I think, that too many on the left seem to believe that crime is at least as much society’s fault as the guy looting a Lululemon store.And there’s the whole gender thing, the left-wing obsession with pronouns. Most Americans — at least the ones who live between Manhattan and Malibu — know that, no matter what progressives say, one person isn’t a “they.” I suspect that “ordinary” Americans find this whole pronoun thing just plain stupid.And even Democrats must be wondering what’s going on when they see a see a bigger, stronger transgender female swimmer — who was mediocre at best competing as a man — now winning all sorts of collegiate contests against women athletes who are smaller and not as strong — because they were born female.Democrats may try to blame Republicans for just about everything most Americans don’t like, but voters aren’t buying it. Biden’s low overall approval ratings attest to that.But Democratic strategists have come up with a way to change the subject, or at least they hope they have. They know that Americans, by and large, are moderate people and that extremism isn’t something that wins votes. So they’ve decided to paint Republicans as the party that harbors dangerous right-wing extremists.Last year, President Biden went on the attack against what he calls, “extreme MAGA Republicans,” who he says, “just don’t threaten our personal and economic rights, they embrace political violence,” a reference to the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol.Fair enough. But which party do voters actually see as more extreme? A new Morning Consult poll found that by a nine-point margin voters see the Democratic Party as more “ideologically extreme” than the GOP. The problem Democrats are facing is that “ordinary” Americans notice things that politicians wish they hadn’t noticed.But Joe Biden’s party does have one very big issue going for them — and it’s Donald Trumphimself, who (not unreasonably) Biden will say is a threat to democracy and unfit to be president of the United States. If enough independents believe that, despite everything else, Biden just may win reelection.

Garland says he’d resign if Biden asked him to take action against Trump - Attorney General Merrick Garland said in an interview that aired Sunday he would resign if President Biden asked him to take action in probes into former President Trump. “I am sure that that will not happen, but I would not do anything in that regard,” Garland said when asked on CBS News’s “60 Minutes” what his reaction would be if Biden asked him “to take action with regard to the Trump investigation.” “And if necessary, I would resign. But there is no sense that anything like that will happen,” Garland continued. Asked if he ever needed to tell Biden, “Hands off these investigations,” Garland said, “No,” adding that the president “has never tried to put hands on these investigations.” In the interview, Garland discussed a range of issues and sought to reaffirm the independence of the Justice Department. On special counsel Jack Smith, the prosecutor in the federal cases against Trump, Garland said he was not in communication with the president or any member of the administration about the Trump investigation. “The most important aspect of the regulations is that the special counsel is not subject to the day-to-day supervision of anyone in the Justice Department,” Garland said. He also pushed back on claims that special counsel David Weiss, who is investigating Hunter Biden, was “slow walking” the investigation. “Well, look. This investigation began under David Weiss,” Garland said in the interview. “David Weiss is a longstanding career prosecutor, and he was appointed by Mr. Trump as the United States attorney for the district of Delaware. I promised at my nomination hearing that I would continue him on in that position and that I would not interfere with his investigation.”

Trump fury dominates on first day of New York fraud trial — Donald Trump’s fury was on full display Monday during the first day of his civil fraud trial, where he lambasted the judge overseeing the case outside of the courtroom and stared daggers into the attorney general investigating business practices involving some of his most famed properties. The former president’s frustration — and his counsels’ — was apparent throughout the day, encapsulated in stern glares and sometimes heated arguments between the parties and the judge. Trump also raged to the news media during a break in the hearing telling them that although he was not required to be there in person, he wanted to “watch this witch hunt myself.” Trump entered the courtroom Monday morning with an austere face, making his way slowly to the defense table where his legal team was seated. At first, he went without glancing at New York Attorney General Letitia James (D), the state’s top prosecutor who brought the sprawling case against him. Secret Service and police entered the room before Trump, moving to surround the three columns of wooden gallery benches filled with reporters. Eric Trump, Trump’s second son, sat parallel to James across the room. But on his way out of the courtroom for a lunch break, the former president glared at James for several seconds, looking back twice in an apparent attempt to get her attention. Less than an hour later, he stood before rows of media cameras and railed against the proceeding, also suggesting that the judge overseeing the case should be disbarred. “Let’s go to trial because this is a judge that should be disbarred. This is a judge that should be out of office. This is a judge that some people say should be charged criminally for what he’s doing,” Trump told reporters just outside the judge’s courtroom. “He’s interfering with an election, and it’s a disgrace.” Last week, Judge Arthur Engoron ruled that James’s office proved the crux of their case and found Trump liable for fraud. The decision stripped some of Trump’s business licenses and raised the potential for him to lose control of some of his famed properties — the same ones that catapulted him to fame, television success and eventually the White House. They include properties in which he himself has a residence like Trump Tower in New York and Mar-a-Lago in Florida. The judge, in his ruling, had rejected Trump’s effort to throw out the case, allowing six remaining elements to proceed to trial this week. The case is a bench trial, meaning there is no jury. Its outcome is at the sole discretion of Engoron, but Trump’s team will have opportunities to appeal. On his Truth Social, Trump has also been targeting Engoron, berating him as “deranged,” “Trump hating,” “unhinged” and a “political hack judge.” Both of Trump’s adult sons have claimed the judge aims to “destroy” their family’s business empire.

Trump’s New York civil fraud trial wraps up for the day: recap --The civil fraud trial into former President Trump’s business dealings that could jeopardize control over some of his most famed properties has wrapped up for the day.A judge last week determined Trump had been liable for fraud for inflating the value of some of his properties in order to secure business loans and insurance policies. Trump himself showed up to court Monday morning and sat through a trial hearing that lasted more than six hours.Monday’s trial marked the start of a long legal road ahead for Trump, who also faces a combined 91 charges in four criminal cases and several other civil cases.See below for a recap from New York.

Trump’s lawyers lay out hush money defense strategy - Former President Trump’s lawyers laid out their hush money case defense strategy in court filings this week, urging a New York judge to dismiss the indictment outright before the case even gets to trial. Trump faces 34 felony counts of falsifying business records over reimbursements he paid to his then-fixer, Michael Cohen, after Cohen made hush money payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels and others in the lead-up to the 2016 election. Hush money by itself is legal, but the prosecutors’ case centers on a claim that Trump improperly deemed the reimbursements a legal retainer in order to conceal criminal conduct and hide damaging information during his campaign. The new filings this week encapsulate Trump’s attempt to get the case tossed ahead of trial, though a ruling is not expected until early next year. Here are Trump’s five biggest legal arguments in fighting the indictment: Trump’s attorneys in their dismissal motion accused Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) of selectively prosecuting the former president, calling the case “extraordinary and unprecedented.” “Because of the unprecedented nature of the charges, and the evidence that they resulted from political pressure rather than an unbiased assessment of the evidence in furtherance of a commitment to do justice, the charges against President Trump must be dismissed,” Trump’s lawyers wrote in court filings. Trump has portrayed the case — and his three other indictments — as a political witch hunt, attacking prosecutors and the judge. “Beginning in 2018, DANY scoured every aspect of President Trump’s life, both personal and professional, in the hopes of finding some legal basis to prosecute him. The Office was determined to pursue a case notwithstanding the facts—however far-fetched and novel—and now it has,” Trump’s lawyers wrote, using an acronym to refer to the New York district attorney. Bragg previously pushed back on the idea of the prosecution being a novel theory and has long insisted the case was not brought because of politics. “The alleged offenses here—felony counts for falsifying business records to commit or conceal another crime—are charges that this Office brings routinely, based on a wide variety of underlying crimes,” prosecutors previously wrote in court filings. Trump’s attorneys are also arguing prosecutors were too late in bringing the case.

Cohen on Trump fraud trial: ‘There’s no way for him to escape this’ Former Trump attorney Michael Cohen said that the ongoing New York business fraud trial is likely to spell the end of former president Trump’s business empire, as Cohen prepares to testify against him in the case. “I can assure you that, as I had stated once again before the House Oversight Committee, everything that happened at the Trump Organization happened with the direct knowledge and at the direction of, and ultimately signed off by, Donald J. Trump,” Cohen said in a CNN interview Friday. “There’s no way for him to escape this.”New York prosecutors argued that Trump and his sons committed business fraud by intentionally inflating and deflating the value of their assets in order to get more favorable loans and insurance rates.A judge ruled that Trump did commit fraud last month, and the trial this week is set to determine damages. Prosecutors are seeking $250 million in financial penalties and to bar Trump and his children from running businesses in New York. Cohen, who served time in prison after he testified against Trump in a separate criminal case, said he has evidence against the former president and plans to testify in court.

First defendant in Trump Georgia case pleads guilty -A co-defendant in the sweeping Georgia election interference case involving former President Trump has become the first to plead guilty in the case. Scott Hall, a bail bond business owner, after reaching a plea agreement with prosecutors pleaded guilty to five misdemeanor counts of conspiracy to commit intentional interference with the performance of election duties before Judge Scott McAfee at an impromptu hearing Friday afternoon. Hall was sentenced to five years probation, a $5,000 fine and 200 hours of community service. He also cannot participate in any “polling activities” while on probation, must write a letter of apology to Georgia citizens and must testify honestly in any future proceedings in the case. “You understand that you’re pleading guilty today because you believe there exists a factual basis that supports the plea, and you are pleading guilty because you are, in fact, guilty?” McAfee asked after Hall entered his plea. “Yes, sir,” Hall replied. Hall shook hands with Fulton County special prosecutor Nathan Wade when leaving the courtroom after entering his plea. The bail bond business owner was reportedly among a group of individuals who breached a Coffee County election office on Jan. 7. If the case had gone to trial, a court employee said the state intended to show that several co-conspirators — including ex-Trump campaign lawyer Sidney Powell — entered into a conspiracy to “intentionally interfere with and hinder and delay” the duties of another co-defendant, Misty Hampton, who was Coffee County’s election supervisor. “​​The ultimate goal of the criminal conspiracy was to unlawfully access all election machines in Coffee County, Ga., that were utilized on November 3, 2020 presidential election … in order to obtain proprietary data or property of Dominion Voting Systems used in the administration of elections in the state of Georgia,” the court employee said.

John Kelly confirms Trump’s ‘suckers’ remark about war dead --Former White House chief of staff John Kelly confirmed several remarks his former boss, former President Trump, reportedly made during his time in the administration, including one where Trump referred to dead U.S. service members as “suckers.”In a statement to CNN, Kelly, the longest serving chief of staff under the Trump administration, confirmed to network anchor Jake Tapper a number of details published in a 2020 article by The Atlantic, including remarks made by Trump during an official visit to France in 2018. “A person that thinks those who defend their country in uniform, or are shot down or seriously wounded in combat, or spend years being tortured as POWs are all ‘suckers’ because ‘there is nothing in it for them,’” Kelly told CNN in his lengthy statement about Trump. “A person that did not want to be seen in the presence of military amputees because ‘it doesn’t look good for me.’” “A person who demonstrated open contempt for a Gold Star family – for all Gold Star families – on TV during the 2016 campaign, and rants that our most precious heroes who gave their lives in America’s defense are ‘losers’ and wouldn’t visit their graves in France.” Several senior staffers told The Atlantic at the time that Trump did not want to visit the graves of the American soldiers buried at Aisne-Marne American Cemetery, saying “Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.” The former president also referred to the 1,800 U.S. Marines killed at Belleau Wood as “suckers” for getting killed. Kelly also criticized his former boss in his statement, saying that Trump was not “truthful” in his political positions and is “a person that has no idea what America stands for and has no idea what America is all about.” “A person who admires autocrats and murderous dictators. A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law,” Kelly said in his statement. “There is nothing more that can be said,” Kelly added. “God help us.”

SEC files suit over business deal directly involving Biden’s brother - The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit last week against a company and a specific business deal that directly involves President Joe Biden’s younger brother, James Biden. The complaint was filed in the Southern District of Florida against Third Friday Management and Michael Lewitt, a business associate of James’. The Commission alleges Third Friday and Lewitt participated in “fraudulent conduct and gross breaches of fiduciary duty” to their clients, the fund and investors. Prior to 2018, the company exclusively invested in S&P 500 index options and marketed it to investors. The Commission claims the company “suddenly changed course” without disclosing the new investing strategy to investors, “many of whom are senior citizens.” Lewitt failed to disclose to investors that he had a personal financial interest and a partnership with a group of private companies, the 28-page lawsuit said. “Lewitt, with sole authority of the Fund, also misappropriated at least $4.7 million of investor funds for his personal use, including over $900,000 to pay a personal IRS tax lien,” the Commission said. The SEC said Lewitt failed to tell investors that he had taken a total of $30 million from the fund and invested it in a group of companies that invests in distressed healthcare companies that eventually went bankrupt. One of the companies he invested in, Platnium Global Health Parnters, LLC, has a separate lawsuit out against Lewitt, James Biden and others. Lewitt is said to be the sole manager. The company’s lawyer is identified as George Mesires, who has represented both James and Hunter Biden in the past. That lawsuit alleges Lewitt, James and others committed acts of fraud against the hospital corporation Diverse Medical Management. Diverse Medical Management invested in medical care in rural communities and filed a separate lawsuit against the group in 2019. In a counterclaim, Lewitt, James and other investors said they provided short-term funding but did not receive financial due diligence.”

Sam Bankman-Fried considered paying Trump $5 billion not to run, Michael Lewis tells '60 Minutes' Sam Bankman-Fried, the alleged crypto criminal who stands accused of masterminding one of the biggest financial frauds in U.S. history, was considering paying Donald Trump $5 billion not to run for president, according to best-selling author Michael Lewis.In an interview with CBS’s “60 Minutes” that aired on Sunday, Lewis said the FTX founder wanted to put a stop to a Trump White House run in 2024 over fears that the former president was a threat to democracy. Lewis traces the rise and fall of the crypto entrepreneur in his latest book, “Going Infinite,” which comes out on Tuesday, the same day Bankman-Fried’s first criminal trial gets underway in New York.“Sam’s thinking, ‘We could pay Donald Trump not to run for president. Like, how much would it take?’” Lewis said. “He did get an answer. He was floated — there was a number that was kicking around. And the number that was kicking around when I was talking to Sam about this was $5 billion. Sam was not sure that number came directly from Trump.”According to Lewis, Bankman-Fried’s ambition to derail Trump’s presidential campaign ultimately went nowhere, in part because he wasn’t sure if his proposal was legal. Also, his crypto empire imploded in November 2022, wiping out Bankman-Fried’s billions of dollars of wealth.A Bankman-Fried representative declined to comment. Steven Cheung, a Trump campaign spokesperson, told NBC that Bankman-Fried is a “liar” who “is back to his conning ways and trying to deceive people.”A superseding indictment alleges that Bankman-Fried used customer funds to make more than $100 million in campaign contributions for the 2022 midterm elections. The government has incorporated that accusation within two of the charges that are still standing: wire fraud and money laundering. That case is set to go to trial next month in in federal court in Manhattan.Bankman-Fried pleaded not guilty to all charges.Lewis, who said he met with the FTX founder more than 100 times in two years, said that there’s a big difference between the alleged crimes committed by Bankman-Fried and those of past high-profile financial criminals.“This isn’t a Ponzi scheme,” Lewis said. “Like, when you think of a Ponzi scheme, I don’t know, Bernie Madoff, the problem is — there’s no real business there. The dollar coming in is being used to pay the dollar going out. And in this case, they actually had — a great real business. If no one had ever cast aspersions on the business, if there hadn’t been a run on customer deposits, they’d still be sitting there making tons of money.”

The $8 billion Sam Bankman-Fried criminal trial starts today — what's at stake and how we got here --A year ago, Sam Bankman-Fried was revered as a titan of the industry and living large at a $40 million penthouse in the Bahamas, while he ran a crypto empire valued at $32 billion. On Tuesday morning in a Manhattan federal court in New York, the now disgraced founder and ex-CEO of the bankrupt crypto exchange FTX will stand trial for allegedly masterminding one of the biggest financial frauds in U.S. history.Tuesday marks the start of the first of two separate criminal trials against the man once celebrated as a titan of the industry.In the first trial, Bankman-Fried faces seven criminal counts related to the collapse of the crypto empire he built, including wire fraud, securities fraud and money laundering.A superseding indictment alleges that Bankman-Fried misused billions of dollars worth of customer money for personal purchases, including buying more than $200 million of upscale real estate properties in the Bahamas, as well as to cover bad bets made at his crypto hedge fund, Alameda Research. The government says customer cash was shuttled to Alameda via two channels: Users depositing cash directly into accounts held by Alameda and through a secret backdoor that was baked into FTX’s code.Prosecutors from the Southern District of New York, who contend that more than $8 billion of customers’ money has gone missing, also allege that Bankman-Fried defrauded FTX investors by covering up the scheme.The government has separately accused SBF of using customer funds to make more than $100 million in campaign contributions for the 2022 midterm elections.The full list of charges are:

• Conspiracy to commit wire fraud on customers of FTX.
• Wire fraud on customers of FTX.
• Conspiracy to commit wire fraud on lenders to Alameda Research.
• Wire fraud on lenders to Alameda Research.
• Conspiracy to commit fraud on customers of FTX in connection with purchase and sale of derivatives.
• Conspiracy to commit securities fraud on investors in FTX.
• Conspiracy to commit money laundering.

A conviction on all counts could land him more than 100 years in prison. Bankman-Fried, who is the son of two Stanford legal scholars, has pleaded not guilty to all charges.Bankman-Fried’s criminal trial is expected to last up to six weeks, and it kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday with jury selection. From there, the prosecution will take roughly four weeks to lay out its case, and the defense will take another one to two weeks to present its side.It’s not yet known whether Bankman-Fried will testify, but the witness roster is expected to include his top deputies at FTX and Alameda, who also happened to comprise his innermost social circle before his crypto empire imploded.The list of cooperating witnesses anticipated to take the stand include Bankman-Fried’s ex-girlfriend, Caroline Ellison, and his ex-best friend from high school math camp and former MIT roommate, Gary Wang.Ellison, who is the former chief executive of Alameda Research, and FTX co-founder Wang, both pleaded guilty in December to multiple charges and have been cooperating with the U.S. attorney’s office in Manhattan for months.Since August, Bankman-Fried has been held in a jail in Brooklyn, New York, after having his multimillion-dollar bail revoked for witness tampering, after allegedly leaking to The New York Times the private diary entries of Ellison, who is expected to be a star witness for the prosecution.Court documents filed so far indicate that lawyers for Bankman-Fried could present an “advice of counsel” defense. That’s where they would say that he was following the guidance of FTX lawyers and didn’t realize that what he was doing was illegal. Judge Lewis Kaplan has already ruled, however, that this defense strategy cannot be included in their opening remarks since it might risk prejudicing the jury from the start.

Jury selection begins in trial of fallen cryptocurrency mogul Sam Bankman-Fried - (AP) — Jury selection began Tuesday in the fraud trial of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried after a prosecutor revealed that no discussions about a potential plea agreement took place in the 10 months since the cryptocurrency executive was arrested and brought to the United States. Once a billionaire, the 31-year-old crypto mogul faces the possibility of a long prison term if convicted at a trial that is expected to last up to six weeks. Prosecutors say he defrauded people and financial institutions who had accounts worth billions of dollars at the cryptocurrency exchange by illegally diverting massive sums of their money for his personal use, including making risky trades at his cryptocurrency hedge fund, Alameda Research. He’s also accused of using customer money to buy real estate and make big political contributions as he tried to influence government regulation of cryptocurrency. U.S. Attorney Damian Williams, who is overseeing the prosecution, has called it one of the biggest frauds in the country’s history. Before about 50 prospective jurors were brought into a Manhattan courtroom, Assistant U.S. Attorney Nicolas Roos said that the government “early on” raised the question with lawyers for Bankman-Fried about whether negotiations aimed at resolving the case with a plea should take place. “There were no discussions about a plea, and the government never made any plea offers,” he said. In interviews and social media posts, Bankman-Fried has acknowledged making huge mistakes while running FTX but insisted he had no criminal intent. He has blamed FTX’s collapse last November, in something equivalent to an old-fashioned bank run, on vindictive competitors, his own inattentiveness and fellow executives who he said failed to manage risk properly. “I didn’t steal funds, and I certainly didn’t stash billions away,” he said in a post earlier this year on the online platform Substack.

Bankman-Fried's lawyer says 'crypto was not for everyone.' FTX said the opposite (Reuters) - In his opening statement at Sam Bankman-Fried's fraud trial on Wednesday, the FTX cryptocurrency exchange founder's lawyer acknowledged that his client was in a risky business, noting that "crypto was not for everyone." But FTX had asserted the opposite in an online post about a car race it sponsored in Miami Beach, Florida, six months before its November 2022 collapse. "Crypto is for everyone, as should be motor sports," FTX posted on May 13, 2022 on its official account on Twitter, alongside a video showing racing cars, bartenders pouring cocktails, and retired basketball star Shaquille O'Neal giving high-fives. At Bankman-Fried's trial on Wednesday, prosecutors played for the jury FTX video advertisements in which a narrator said, "we're inviting everyone in," as well as spots featuring NFL quarterback Tom Brady and comedian Larry David. Bankman-Fried, 31, has pleaded not guilty to two counts of fraud and five counts of conspiracy over the collapse of FTX. Prosecutors said in opening statements on Wednesday that he stole $10 billion in customer funds to buy luxury real estate, donate to U.S. political candidates and plug losses at his hedge fund. FTX's marketing to retail investors to try to broaden the appeal of cryptocurrency, once a niche asset class, could be a key issue in the trial. Prosecutor Thane Rehn said FTX's commercials promoted the exchange as trustworthy - even while Bankman-Fried was allegedly stealing deposits. Rehn said the recruitment of additional customers helped FTX meet demands from others to withdraw their money, masking the theft for a time. Mark Cohen, Bankman-Fried's lawyer, said his client never intended to steal funds. His opening statement portrayed Bankman-Fried as an ambitious entrepreneur who "overlooked" key business functions like risk management as FTX grew rapidly during a boom in the values of digital assets. "You will learn that crypto was not for everyone. On the one hand it was new and exciting," Cohen said, addressing the jury. "But on the other hand, many factors that nobody controlled could make crypto go up and down in value. So too crypto companies themselves could rise and fall very quickly." Cohen also said, "it's not a crime to try to get Tom Brady to come on ads for your company." A spokesman for Bankman-Fried did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Sam Bankman-Fried ‘Lied,’ DOJ Tells Jury; Defense Tries to Pin FTX Collapse on Caroline Ellison --FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s entire crypto empire was a “house of cards” that was “built on a lie,” the U.S. Department of Justice said in its opening statement at the FTX founder’s trial.Bankman-Fried’s defense team countered that the onetime FTX founder acted in good faith – even as his businesses grew too quickly and collapsed dramatically through no fault of his own, his lawyers said. They assigned some of the blame to one of his employees, his former paramour Caroline Ellison, and said she failed to install safeguards. Ellison has already pleaded guilty and will testify during the trial.Bankman-Fried’s criminal trial on fraud and conspiracy charges kicked off Wednesday at 12:30 p.m. in New York. Assistant U.S. Attorney Nathan Rehn told the 12-person jury that the government would present evidence and expert witnesses that would prove the former crypto king “lied to his customers” and used their money to buy himself “money, power and influence.”“He poured money – other people’s money – into investments,” Rehn said. He “spent that money in all sorts of ways on himself.”Bankman-Fried’s lawyers argued in their opening statement that the former founder of FTX and Alameda Research never meant to steal customers’ money – he was simply overwhelmed by the speed at which both his businesses grew.“He did not intend to steal from anyone,” said the defense’s lead lawyer, Mark Cohen, to jurors selected earlier Wednesday. He also said that Bankman-Fried “acted in good faith” and that he “didn’t defraud anyone.”The FTX app and terms of service told customers the money they put on the exchange was being kept for them “as if they were sitting right there” – but, in reality, Bankman-Fried diverted those funds to "smaller and secretive company” called Alameda Research and spent them on “luxuries” for himself, his friends and family members, Rehn told the court. In addition, Bankman-Fried used the money to make political donations that allowed him to curry favor with powerful people on Capitol Hill, Rehn said.“You will learn the defendant took billions of dollars from … accounts [holding customers’ funds] … and he spent it, and customers had no way to know,” Rehn said.Bankman-Fried took more than $10 billion out of FTX to pay its sister company Alameda Research’s debts in May and June of 2022, and attempted to “orchestrate a cover-up” by ordering the creation of false financial statements, Rehn added. He also testified before Congress, alleging FTX had never stolen customers’ funds, he said.However, that “lie” blew up when Alameda’s financial statements were “leaked online,” Rehn said, referencing CoinDesk’s award-winning reporting on an internal document from Alameda that set into motion FTX’s collapse last fall.Still, Bankman-Fried attempted to “cover his tracks,” tweeting false reassurances to his customers, instructing his employees to set up his company’s internal communications platforms to automatically delete messages between him and his employees and falsifying contracts and other documents, Rehn said.The DOJ plans to present documents, investor files, financial statements and Bankman-Fried’s own deleted tweets during the course of the trial, in addition to witness testimony, he said.

Sam Bankman-Fried's crypto empire was 'built on lies,' US prosecutor says | CNN Business — In their opening statements to a newly sworn-in jury in Manhattan federal court on Wednesday, lawyers laid out previews of their cases, offering two divergent narratives for the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire.Assistant US Attorney Thane Rehn painted a picture of a villainous, greedy businessman whose boundless appetite for wealth and power led him to steal billions of dollars in customer funds.“He had wealth, he had power, he had influence,” Rehn said. “But all of that — all of it — was built on lies.”Rehn reiterated the government’s accusations that Bankman-Fried, known as SBF, used his crypto exchange, FTX, as his own personal piggy bank, using the money he took from customers to enrich himself and his family, buy luxury beachfront property in the Bahamas and funnel millions into US political campaigns.The US government has charged Bankman-Fried, 31, with multiple counts of fraud and conspiracy, following the implosion of his crypto-trading platform, FTX, last year.“This man,” Rehn said, pointing to Bankman-Fried a few feet away, “stole billions of dollars from thousands of people.” He repeatedly underscored a central argument: that Bankman-Fried stole, enlisted others to help him steal, lied about stealing, and continued to lie to try as he sought to cover up his crimes. As Rehn spoke, Bankman-Fried, dressed in a suit and tie and flanked by his attorneys, trained his eyes on a laptop, expressing no reaction to the prosecutor’s allegations. But as his own lawyer, Mark Cohen, stepped up to speak, Bankman-Fried’s demeanor softened and his focus shifted to the jury box. Cohen laid out a starkly different view of his client and the collapse of his businesses. “Sam didn’t defraud anyone,” he told jurors, arguing that his client acted in good faith throughout the rise and fall of his startups.“Sam was someone who worked very hard,” Cohen said, adding that SBF was “a math nerd who didn’t drink or party.”As for the mistakes that led to FTX’s and Alameda’s undoing, Cohen argued that Bankman-Fried and his colleagues, like many entrepreneurs, were “building the plane as they were flying it.” But as the crypto industry flailed in 2022, they were about to fly into “a perfect storm.”Cohen echoed some of the defenses Bankman-Fried has made over the past year, including that “things were moving quickly” and FTX didn’t have a fully built-out risk management team.“It’s not a crime to be the CEO of a company that later files for bankruptcy,” he said.Cohen also sought to undermine the prosecution’s star witness, Caroline Ellison, Bankman-Fried’s ex-girlfriend and former CEO of Alameda. Cohen told the jury that despite Bankman-Fried’s directive to place hedges on Alameda’s risky positions, she failed to do so. Bankman-Fried himself complained in documents leaked to the New York Times that he believed Ellison wasn’t able to handle the job.Bankman-Fried has pleaded not guilty to seven counts of fraud and conspiracy. Several of his former colleagues, however, have pleaded guilty and plan to testify against him as part of their plea deals. Prosecutors said one of those former colleagues, Gary Wang, the co-founder of FTX, would likely testify this week.

Sam Bankman-Fried’s college housemate and FTX employee details fateful conversation on tennis court: ‘We’re not bulletproof’ -- The inner circle of FTX was a web of close friends. Sam Bankman-Fried met Gary Wang, FTX’s chief technology officer, at math camp when they were growing up, and engineering chief Nishad Singh was close friends with Bankman-Fried’s brother.Prosecutors have exploited that intimacy in their criminal case against Bankman-Fried, which began on Tuesday with jury selection. After calling a French cocoa trader and FTX victim as its first witness, the government turned to one of Bankman-Fried’s closest acquaintances as its second: Adam Yedidia, a former senior developer for FTX and Bankman-Fried’s housemate at MIT.When Yedidia’s testimony began on Wednesday, with Bankman-Fried just feet away at a table flanked by his lawyers, it was the first time the two men had seen each other since November, when FTX collapsed and Yedidia resigned after finding out the exchange had misappropriated customer assets. Prosecutors asked if his friend and former boss was in the room. When Yedidia pointed at Bankman-Fried, the slumping crypto founder straightened in his chair.Bankman-Fried and Yedidia met when they were undergraduate students at MIT, living at the college’s nerdy version of a dorm, Epsilon Theta, where housemates would play board games and host square dances.As Bankman-Fried’s fortunes rose along with his budding crypto empire, he recruited Yedidia twice: first at his trading firm, Alameda Research, and then, after Yedidia left to complete a Ph.D., as a core developer at FTX. Yedidia followed Bankman-Fried from Hong Kong to the Bahamas, living with the founder and eight others at the soon-to-be-infamous $30 million penthouse at the Albany luxury resort. Yedidia enjoyed other benefits as well, including over $10 million in bonuses in the form of cash and stock options.On Thursday, in his second day of testimony, Yedidia detailed the crucial role he played for FTX: He helped develop an automated system for customer deposits and withdrawals to be processed from bank transfers.The government’s criminal case against Bankman-Fried hinges on the trading firm, Alameda, using customer deposits from the exchange FTX for its own purposes. On Thursday, Yedidia explained how he learned that customer deposits were not actually being sent to FTX, but instead to an Alameda-controlled account called North Dimension at Silvergate Bank.While Yedidia said he was not initially concerned about Alameda’s growing debt to FTX in the form of customer deposits, that changed as the figure grew to $8 billion. Under direct examination by Department of Justice prosecutor Danielle Sassoon, Yedidia described a fateful meeting he had with Bankman-Fried in the middle of a game of padel tennis at their Albany home in June 2022, just a few months before FTX collapsed.“Are things okay?” Yedidia recalls asking Bankman-Fried.“We were bulletproof last year,” Bankman-Fried replied, according to Yedidia. “We’re not bulletproof this year.” Bankman-Fried then told Yedidia it could take six months to three years to rectify that. While Bankman-Fried later told Yedidia that he was trying to raise money from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to bolster the exchange’s cash reserves, his efforts were unsuccessful, according to Yedidia.After CoinDesk published a balance sheet for Alameda in November, spurring aseries of rapid events that saw customers rush to withdraw their deposits from FTX, the exchange could not make its users whole. It declared bankruptcy in a matter of days. As FTX teetered on the edge, Yedidia said that he still trusted Bankman-Fried to manage the crisis. As employees quit, he sent his longtime friend a message over Signal.“I love you, Sam,” Yedidia recalled writing. “I’m not going anywhere, don’t worry.”That changed after Yedidia learned that Alameda had been using FTX customer deposits to repay loans to creditors. He said that he quit right after, leaving the Bahamas and later agreeing to cooperate with prosecutors under immunity, meaning he would not be prosecuted for his testimony.Wearing a suit that seemed to dwarf his small frame, Yedidia spoke in carefully measured words as he described what he learned about how his former MIT housemate had used customer funds.“It was,” Yedidia said, “a flagrantly wrong thing to have done.”

Alameda had a $65B line of credit and 'unlimited withdrawals' -The Sam Bankman-Fried trial gained steam after a somewhat sleepier first half of the day. That’s when prosecutors and the defense asked a witness and former FTX developer about the technical details of the crypto exchange as well as Alameda Research.But that changed around 4 p.m. when FTX co-founder and CTO Gary Wang took the stand, wearing a wrinkled suit. Prior to Wang taking the stand, there was a 15-minute break during which Bankman-Fried looked visibly irritated.Bankman-Fried’s parents were also there. During the break, they went to their son seemingly in an effort to provide support. At one point his father, Joseph Bankman, patted his mother, Barbara Fried, on the back, said something and laughed. She didn’t laugh back but continued to look away toward her son.On the stand, Wang admitted that he committed wire fraud, securities fraud and commodities fraud. He added that Bankman-Fried, Nishad Singh and Caroline Ellison were the individuals he committed the crimes with.Wang, Singh and Ellison pleaded guilty in late December 2022 as part of a deal to cooperate with the government and testify during this trial.Wang said that they were given “special privileges from Alameda Research,” the crypto trading firm that he said he and Bankman-Fried started prior to launching FTX. Those privileges included getting large lines of credit, unlimited withdrawals and being able to have negative balances. Wang said that the “unlimited funds” came from FTX customers; a special code was added to customer transactions that funneled the money to Alameda.He shared during his testimony that he was in charge of writing and reviewing code. And while Bankman-Fried did not write the code, Wang said Bankman-Fried did tell him and other developers what to implement. “Sometimes we talked [disagreements] out, but in the end, it’s Sam’s decision,” Wang said.Because of these special privileges, Alameda had a $65 billion line of credit, Wang said. “Normal large businesses have single to double digits [of credit] in the millions.” By the time the two businesses filed for bankruptcy in mid November 2022, Alameda withdrew $8 billion, Wang said.These internal financial advantages were not disclosed to the public, he shared.Alameda and FTX were both started by Bankman-Fried and Wang, with ownership split 90% and 10%, and then 17% equity and 65% equity, respectively. Singh also had 5% equity of FTX, and a number of outside investors held other positions, Wang noted.The ownership percentages never changed, he added. At the time, both Wang and Bankman-Fried were billionaires.

Michael Lewis on how Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX fell — book review | Financial Times -- What is it about financial markets that made the promoters and the promises of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies so appealing? Why did it all go so badly wrong, and what are the consequences for society? Academics, journalists and even a moderately famous former teen idol have all tackled the subject with varying perspectives and degrees of success. Few authors should be better positioned to take on crypto than Michael Lewis. Asked by a friend to check out Bankman-Fried ahead of a potential investment in late 2021, Lewis frankly admits he was “totally sold” on the dishevelled wunderkind. Going Infinite became the result. Structured as a biography-cum-fly-on-the-wall tale, the book traces Bankman-Fried’s journey from friendless nerd to unflappable Wall Street trader, business tycoon and finally accused felon — all by the age of 31. We learn about Bankman-Fried’s fondness for puzzles and vegan snacks, his seventh-grade views about abortion and — in one really interesting sideshow — Lewis also quotes extensively from his romantic correspondence with Caroline Ellison, the former head of his Alameda trading business. She has pleaded guilty to fraud and is expected to be a star witness against him. Going Infinite reconstructs his subject’s peripatetic existence as he refused to give FTX employees job titles or clear reporting lines, and shifted its headquarters literally overnight from California to Hong Kong and finally the Bahamas. Lewis even rode with Bankman-Fried in his plane as the entrepreneur sought to convince Washington policymakers in July 2022 that he was the face of “responsible” crypto. Yet at the same time, FTX employees were losing track of investments and catastrophically allowing Alameda to “borrow” client money to make risky trading bets. It’s great detail. But the author’s microscope is trained so narrowly that the book suffers. Bankman-Fried’s saga provides a window into a global crusade to shake up conventional finance that sweeps in libertarian conspiracy nuts, greedy finance bros and central bankers. Readers would have benefited from a Lewis-style exploration of stablecoins, which are supposed to be backed one-to-one by hard currency, highly volatile currencies such as bitcoin and dogecoin and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), a kind of online art that has no real-world existence. Backers envision a freer world where decentralised digital assets will replace national currencies; sceptics fear a modern repeat of the 1630s Dutch tulip mania that will further erode social trust. But there’s little of that in Going Infinite. Readers who want a broader view should turn to several other recent books that tackle the digital currency craze. Journalist Zeke Faux turns out one of the best in the form of a mystery story. Much of the charm of Number Go Up lies in Faux’s willingness to cast himself as the bumbling detective. The book opens with a confession from the Bloomberg reporter that he spent extensive time with Bankman-Fried without noticing any financial misconduct. Faux then devotes the bulk of the saga to investigating the stablecoin Tether, only to have the bigwigs behind it refuse to talk to him and for it to prove to be one of the few survivors of last autumn’s crash. “Back in 2021, I could have picked a company to investigate by tossing a dart . . . and whichever one I’d hit would have blown up by now. Instead I’d spent more than a year investigating one of the few that hadn’t,” he writes ruefully. Between those two failures, Faux provides a clearly written narrative of the high and low points of the recent crypto boom and bust. He has a wry eye for details: he talks his wife into letting him buy a discount version of a Bored Ape, the hottest NFT of 2021, and then gets cold feet. Crypto has a knack for attracting unusual people. Ben McKenzie, best known for playing Ryan Atwood on the teen drama The O.C.,swaps the screen for the keyboard in something of a personal crusade to reveal the true nature of crypto. “I was a bored, mildly depressed 40-something-year-old man in need of adventure,” he explains in Easy Money, written with journalist Jacob Silverman. So he got stoned and decided to write a book that would warn the unwary by helping “to spread an economic counter narrative to the crypto hype”. He provides a gallery of larger-than-life figures driven by varying degrees of brilliance and hucksterism, including some of crypto’s most colourful and notorious characters: Alex Mashinsky, chief executive of crypto lender Celsius, Tether co-founder Brock Pierce and, of course, Bankman-Fried. Their meeting, in the summer of 2022, came at the zenith of Bankman-Fried’s influence, but as McKenzie tells it, he was not taken in. “One thing was obvious,” he writes. “Sam wanted me to like him. He was desperate to find common ground . . . If this was the king of crypto, was it a kingdom made of sand?” Then there is Rachel O’Dwyer’s book, Tokens, which approaches the subject with a more analytical point: for all its digital trappings, crypto rests on the same kind of trust as older methods of exchange. A lecturer in digital cultures at the National College of Art and Design in Dublin, she is primarily interested in what is happening to the way people think about payments and value in a digital age. Her surprisingly readable story takes in the clay shapes used to represent stored grain in 7,500BC, butter vouchers in 1980s Ireland and the virtual loot from World of Warcraft. While most of the other recent books about digital currencies zoom in on particular platforms and high-profile people, O’Dwyer’s is shot through with references to philosophy, credit scores and sociological treatises on the nature of money. “Tokens are habitually tied to identity . . . to employment, to life choices and social standing,” she observes. “Whose values get written into the tokens? Who writes this script?” She leavens the theory with interviews and stories of people who have been sucked into the digital token economy in different ways: Will, the 13-year-old who collects Fortnite loot; Jeffrey Berns, who wanted to build a blockchain-powered city in the Nevada desert; and Jérôme Croisier, an art historian turned financier who sells tokenised shares in pieces of art. She doesn’t like what she finds: “This wasn’t some beautiful escape from a grim reality. It seemed like a real shithole.” Four books, four very different in-depth explorations of what makes the crypto crowd tick. Yet I came out of my reading binge still confused about what drove people to pay $68,000 for a single bitcoin in 2021 and why, after all the revelations and arrests, it is still selling for $27,000 today. If this is more than a collective delusion, the explanation will have to come at a later date.

SEC pushes ahead with case against Coinbase crypto exchange - The Securities and Exchange Commission is pushing ahead with its litigation against Coinbase, raising the stakes further in the case against the biggest US crypto exchange. The SEC on Tuesday asked a federal judge to reject Coinbase's attempts to have the agency's lawsuit tossed. The company had argued that the watchdog "abused its discretion" in claiming that the firm was offering crypto products that were unregistered securities. Industry advocates and critics alike are looking at the Coinbase case for answers to longstanding questions about the SEC's jurisdiction over digital assets. The agency under Chair Gary Gensler has argued that most tokens are subject to SEC rules and that platforms where they trade should be registered with the agency. Gary Gensler, chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission In June, the SEC alleged that Coinbase for years evaded its rules by illegally operating an unregistered exchange, brokerage and clearing agency. The case stands out because of the platform's high-profile status in the US and because it goes to the heart of the SEC's legal claims over much of the asset class. On Tuesday, the regulator spooled out further its arguments that assets traded on Coinbase amounted to securities. "Each crypto asset issuer invited investors, including purchasers on Coinbase's platform — reasonably to expect the value of their investment to increase based on the issuer's broadly-disseminated plan to develop and maintain the asset's value," wrote the agency. The SEC argued that public statements by issuers that would have "led investors, including those on Coinbase's platform, to reasonably expect profits from the issuers' efforts." The agency also called Coinbase's view that crypto asset sales on secondary market platforms are never investment contracts "unsupported and nonsensical." In response, Coinbase's chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, blasted the agency's position and said his company would file a response later this month. "It's more of the same old same old," he said on the social media platform X (previously known as Twitter), referring to the SEC's arguments. Grewal reiterated Coinbase's position that it is not offering securities, and that the SEC should write new regulations for crypto rather than bringing enforcement actions.Tuesday's back-and-forth stems from Coinbase arguing in August that the regulator had overstepped and pointed to as evidence a recent decision by another federal judge who ruled that sales of Ripple Labs' XRP to the general public on exchanges didn't amount to securities offerings.

Ripple, Coinbase licensed in Singapore; Revolut under fire in the U.K. -- Singapore's regulators grant payment licenses to Ripple and Coinbase, Stripe expands pay-by-bank in Africa, U.K. regulators pressure Revolut and more in this week's global financial news roundup. Blockchain and cryptocurrency technology firm Ripple has received a major payments institution license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore. The license, which follows an earlier in-principle approval, will enable Ripple to continue to provide digital payment token services in Singapore. More than 90% of Ripple's business is outside of the U.S., and Singapore is one of the company's fastest growing markets, the company said. Ripple established its Asia Pacific headquarters in Singapore in 2017, and has doubled its headcount in Singapore over the past year. "Under MAS' leadership, Singapore has developed into one of the leading fintech and digital asset hubs striking the balance between innovation, consumer protection and responsible growth," said Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, in a release. Ripple has a rockier relationship with U.S. regulators, including a long dispute with the Securities and Exchange Commission over the regulatory status of the XRP token. —MAS has also granted Coinbase's Singapore unit a major payment institution license, enabling the company to expand its blockchain payment services to individuals and institutions in Singapore. The company, which issues the USDC stablecoin and an expanding menu of financial services, earlier this year integrated Singapore's federated digital ID, called SingPass. Circle also debuted no-fee USDC purchases in Singapore. Coinbase has identified Singapore as a primary market for expansion, citing internal research that found 25% of Singaporeans consider crypto as the future of finance, with 32% saying they are current or past crypto owners. Coinbase, which is also facing litigation from the SEC, hopes to forge partnerships and sell its technology to the hundreds of Web3 companies that are headquartered or have operations in Singapore. The Financial Conduct Authority is investigating London-based challenger bank Revolut over a potential violation of red-flag financial crime regulations. The FCA is trying to find out if Revolut allowed about $2.05 million to be released from accounts that the National Crime Agency had tagged as suspicious, reports the Financial Times. The suspected fund releases occurred during July and August, according to the newspaper. Revolut reportedly disclosed the issue to the FCA, but said about $604,000 had been released instead of the higher amount from the NCA. Revolut, which did not provide comment for this story, is in the midst of applying for a banking license in the U.K. and an expansion into the U.S.

Texas paid bitcoin miner another $2.5 million to cut energy --The Energy Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) paid cryptocurrency mining company Riot around $2.5 million to cut its energy use in September. The payouts come after Riot announced that it made more than $31 million in payments from the state's energy grid operator during August, as an extreme heat wave pushed the grid to multiple peak demand records. “September represented another significant month for Riot as we were able to clearly demonstrate the value of Bitcoin mining while contributing to the stability of the ERCOT electrical grid,” Jason Les, CEO of Riot, said in a Wednesday release. Riot earned the $2.5 million in energy credits in September through ERCOT's "demand response" programs, which offer payouts to high-power-use entities like bitcoin mining companies to cut usage during peak demand periods. ERCOT also relies on bitcoin miners like Riot to use more power during periods of excessive supply to stabilize energy prices,according to CNBC.The Colorado-based company pulled in another $11 million in power credits in September by selling prepurchased energy to the retail energy supplier TXU, per the Dallas Morning News' Irving Mejia-Hilario. Texas has gone out of its way to sell itself to the cryptocurrency industry as a free-market, low-regulation oasis in recent years. The state is now on its way to becoming the bitcoin capital of the world, according to Fortune. Bitcoin mining now accounts for a sizeable portion of Texas' energy use: ERCOT estimated in 2022 bitcoin projects accounted for 33 gigawatts (GW) of energy in its interconnection queue. By comparison, all Houston households combined use an estimated 6 GW per year.

Fed OIG highlights shortcomings in Fed's oversight of Silvergate Bank — The Office of Inspector General for the Federal Reserve System said Monday the Fed did not act quickly enough to address the risks building up at Silvergate Bank and urged the central bank to clarify its regulatory approaches toward banks exploring novel strategies.The Fed OIG executive summary provided abridged details of its nonpublic comprehensive report on Fed supervision of Silvergate from 2013 to the bank's self-liquidation in 2023. The OIG said the full report can't be publicly released because it contains confidential supervisory information. "We cannot publicly release our full report given Silvergate's status as an open institution and the confidential supervisory and trade secret information described in our report," the summary noted. "The public disclosure requirements outlined in section 38(k)(4) of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act do not apply to Silvergate because it has not failed or caused a loss to the Deposit Insurance Fund."Even so, the report's summary attributes Silvergate's March voluntary self-liquidation to its rapid growth in deposits concentrated in the cryptocurrency industry, coupled with weaknesses in its corporate governance and risk management which left it susceptible to deposit flight."The bank's deposit accounts were largely funded from companies in one industry, and nearly all deposits were uninsured and noninterest bearing," the summary noted. "Further, nepotism, evidenced in the several familial relationships among members of the bank's senior leadership team, undermined the effectiveness of the bank's risk management function."The OIG noted that such factors left the bank susceptible when its main source of depositors — the crypto industry — was thrown into turmoil after crypto exchange FTX filed for bankruptcyin November 2022, sending crypto prices plummeting and Silvergate into a liquidity crisis as it saw significant deposit flight. In March 2023, the executive summary noted Silvergate's parent company, Silvergate Capital Corp., didn't submit its annual financial report to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on time — saying its independent public auditor was unable to complete its audit procedures because Silvergate Capital Corp. was unable to provide the needed information, due to regulatory and legal uncertainty.

Bowman doubles down on call for outside review of SVB failure --Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman said government-backed probes into the failure of Silicon Valley Bank have not provided a full accounting of the issues that led to the bank's demise.In a Monday speech at an event for mid-market executives, Bowman said previous reviews of the bank's failure have been too limited in scope and too focused on the months directly preceding the collapse. In light of this, she reiterated her call for an outside investigation into SVB's demise."Collectively, these reports have provided some valuable insights into the bank failure, but in my view, much work remains to ensure we have identified all of the factors that contributed to the failure of SVB, and the subsequent failures of Signature Bank and First Republic, including the actions of regulators in the lead-up to and following the failures," Bowman said. "While there is overlap between many of the findings in the reports published to date, these reports have not reached entirely consistent conclusions."Her remarks come less than a week after the Fed's Office of the Inspector General — the agency's in-house watchdog — released a report on the episode that largely mirrored the central bank's own review, which was led by Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr.Bowman has been skeptical of Barr's findings since they were released a little more than five months ago. She has also pushed back against the policy proposals that have stemmed from the report, including proposed changes to the regulatory framework and risk capital standards for banks between $100 billion and $250 billion of assets. In her speech, she said it was important for regulators to learn the right lessons from this spring's bank failures. Already, she said, supervisors have responded to the episode by taking a more "heavy-handed" approach, one that focuses intently on quarterly call reports and less on direct communication with leaders at targeted institutions. Bowman expressed concern about this shift in tactic, suggesting that supervisors could be overreacting to the events of March."In my mind, bank data analysis that occurs exclusively in an off-site context prevents supervisors from leveraging important opportunities to engage with financial institutions to effectively deliver supervisory messages," she said. "It is entirely appropriate to express concern or engage in dialogue with management, or to gain a better understanding of a bank's strategic direction or risk management approach based on reported data. Financial results are key, but in the continuum of supervision, we should not forget the value of a broader based supervisory approach that uses all available tools and considers all relevant factors."

Five-Count Felon JPMorgan Chase Gets Hit with Another Federal Fine for 40 Million Derivative Violations; Pays 37 1/2 Cents Per Violation --By Pam and Russ Martens ~ In the eyes of Wall Street veterans who are paying close attention to what’s going down at the mega banks on Wall Street, federal regulators are making the crime wave at these banks worse, not better. The federal fines for egregious behavior at these banks are getting smaller and more meaningless by the day. Take, for example, what happened on Friday. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined three of the largest trading houses on Wall Street a combined $53 million for derivative reporting violations. Those trading houses were units of Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and JPMorgan Chase.But what was particularly tone deaf about the CFTC’s settlement with JPMorgan Chase was the tiny amount of the monetary fine and the praise heaped on the five-count felon bank for its “cooperation” with the federal regulator. According to the CFTC, over a period of five years, spanning 2017 to 2022, JPMorgan Chase Bank and two of its units “failed to report, or failed to correctly report, more than 40 million swap transactions.” The fine was a pathetic $15 million in total for the three JPMorgan units, meaning it cost this global behemoth just 37 ½ cents per law violation.Last year, JPMorgan Chase reported $37.7 billion in net income. A fine of $15 million for 40 million violations of law is something that traders will make jokes about around the water cooler. Why would a trading house fail to report a derivative trade? It could be that it had exceeded its speculative trading limits or that its counterparty on the trade was a risky counterparty that a federally-insured bank shouldn’t be doing business with or with whom it already had too many risky derivative trades. It could also be that one large trading house was attempting to manipulate the market to benefit one of its other trading positions.Regarding that last point – attempting to manipulate the market to benefit one of its trading positions – on September 29, 2020, the U.S. Department of Justice charged JPMorgan Chase with rigging the precious metals market and hit it with a criminal felony count for its conduct, to which it admitted. According to the Justice Department, the rigging occurred for more than eight years, from March of 2008 to August of 2016, and involved “tens of thousands” of incidents. In the current case, the CFTC wrote that it was recognizing JPMorgan’s “substantial cooperation and appropriate remediation” which was “further reflected in the form of a reduced civil monetary penalty.” The CFTC appeared clueless that it was thanking a serial recidivist lawbreaker and five-count felon for “cooperation.” This is the same bank that the Chair of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations in 2013, the late Senator Carl Levin, said “piled on risk, hid losses, disregarded risk limits, manipulated risk models, dodged oversight, and misinformed the public.” That statement was made regarding the London Whale derivatives scandal at JPMorgan Chase Bank, where it used depositors’ money from its federally-insured bank to gamble in derivatives in London and end up losing $6.2 billion. This is the same bank that recently agreed to pay $365 million to settle claims that it rolled out the red carpet for child sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein for a decade and a half in order to boost its bottom line from his referral of wealthy clients? JPMorgan Chase didn’t report to law enforcement Epstein’s hundreds of suspicious withdrawals of cash, sometimes amounting to $40,000 to $80,000 a month, until Epstein was dead in his jail cell in 2019 while awaiting trial. The $365 million in settlements were made with Epstein victims ($290 million) and with the Attorney General for the U.S. Virgin Islands ($75 million). The U.S. Department of Justice has yet to bring criminal charges against JPMorgan Chase for acting as a cash conduit for a notorious sex trafficker of children for more than 15 years. Federal regulators are defining deviancy down on Wall Street and greasing the skids for another epic crash like the one that occurred in 2008 that left the U.S. economy in tatters.

A Public Policy Professor Who Served Under Three U.S. Presidents, Says Jamie Dimon Is an Oligarch and Has “Hijacked the System” → By Pam and Russ Martens ~ Jamie Dimon is the Chairman and CEO of the serially-charged criminal trading operations of JPMorgan Chase, which thanks to the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999, is also allowed to own the largest federally-insured bank in the United States and use its trillions of dollars in mom and pop deposits to gamble in derivatives. Robert Reich is Professor of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley; served in the administrations of Presidents Ford and Carter and as Labor Secretary under Clinton; is the author of 18 books, including bestsellers The Work of Nations, Saving Capitalism, and Aftershock: The Next Economy and America’s Future. Reich received his B.A. from Dartmouth College, his M.A. from Oxford University where he was a Rhodes Scholar, and his J.D. from Yale Law School. Jamie Dimon made the mistake of coming into the radar of Reich in 2018. According to Reich, Dimon phoned him in 2018 at his office at UC Berkeley and launched into a “diatribe” because Reich had criticized JPMorgan Chase publicly on the topic of “the degree of concentration of big Wall Street banks….”Reich, apparently, saw Dimon’s attempt to bully him into silence as emblematic of how the oligarchs are taking over the United States. So Reich wrote a book, which was released two years later, in which Dimon is heavily featured — and not in a good way. The book is The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It.Reich analyzes Dimon as follows in The System: “Dimon doesn’t see how he has contributed to the mess we’re in. He doesn’t acknowledge the inconsistencies between his preferred self-image as ‘patriot first’ and his roles as CEO of America’s largest bank and chairman of the Business Roundtable [a corporate lobby group that has spent over $100 million lobbying members of Congress in the past five years]. He doesn’t understand how he has hijacked the system.” Indeed, in 2019, Dimon appeared on the CBS news program, 60 Minutes, and pounded the table that candidates running for President, such as Senator Elizabeth Warren,should stop vilifying him and accept his point of view that he’s a “patriot.”In 2019, the bank had already racked up three criminal felony charges, to which it admitted and got settlements with the U.S. Department of Justice. The very next year, it admitted to two more. See: JPMorgan’s Board Made Jamie Dimon a Billionaire as the Bank Rigged Markets, Laundered Money, and Admitted to Five Felony Counts. So far this year, Dimon and JPMorgan Chase have been at the center of the scandal of the century over separate charges brought by victims and the Attorney General of the U.S. Virgin Islands that the bank aided and abetted more than a decade of Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking of children so that he and his ultra wealthy pals could sexually assault them. Showing just how much control the oligarchy has in the U.S. today, only civil lawsuits have thus far been brought against JPMorgan Chase. Only deafening silence has come from the criminal division of the U.S. Department of Justice where JPMorgan Chase’s role with Jeffrey Epstein is concerned. Reich, in his book, also singles out Dimon for being one of those who have “justified their wealth and power as being in the interest of the public, but the public has been shafted.” Reich goes on to provide numerous examples of how the public has been shafted, writing:“The increasing concentration of wealth and power at the top has created an education system in which the super-rich can buy admission to college for their children, a political system in which they can buy Congress and the presidency, an information ecosystem in which they can buy public opinion, a health-care system in which they can buy care others can’t, and a justice system in which they can buy their way out of jail.” Dimon is the only Wall Street mega bank CEO to have remained in that post since the financial crisis of 2008 – notwithstanding his bank losing $6.2 billion gambling with depositors’ money in derivatives in London; despite five felony counts to which it admitted; despite over $30 billion in fines and restitution for looting the public and rigging trading; despite years of providing banking services to two of the most notorious criminals of this century – Bernie Madoff and Jeffrey Epstein – and despite endless bailouts from the Federal Reserve to prop up this Frankenbank. One of the media outlets that has functioned for years as a p.r. outlet to prop up Dimon’s image as a statesman on Wall Street is Bloomberg News, owned by fellow billionaire Michael Bloomberg, the former Mayor of New York City. In 2016, Michael Bloomberg even co-authored an opinion piece with Dimon. The same year, the New York Post reported that JPMorgan Chase was the second largest customer of Bloomberg’s data terminal business with 10,000 leases of Bloomberg’s terminals. At the time, the terminals cost around $21,000 each per year or approximately $210 million being forked over by JPMorgan Chase to Michael Bloomberg’s company. Bloomberg’s data terminals are the cash cow of the company.Reich sums up his analysis of Dimon in the new “System” in America like this:“Jamie Dimon comes as close as anyone to embodying the American system as it functions today. He’s a member in good standing of the American oligarchy. If you want to understand that oligarchy, you need to understand Dimon.” We would like to offer that what Americans really need to understand is how the oligarchy protects men like Jamie Dimon.

Fed's Barr warns of looming AI 'arms race' for cybersecurity - Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said generative artificial intelligencecould lead to a cybersecurity "arms race" for banks. In a live-streamed, moderated discussion on cyber risk in the banking sector, Barr called cybersecurity a "top risk" that banks and regulators should be addressing proactively, especially in light of the rapid evolution of digital technology and related threats. "There's a real risk that we have a cyber arms race using generative AI, with defenders and attackers in a constant struggle," he said. "So we do need to make sure that we are, and banks are, investing in the kind of technology that is useful not only today but in the near future." Barr outlined his concerns during a half-hour conversation with Lisa Ryu, a senior associate director with the Fed's division of supervision and regulation. The stream was part of the Large and Foreign Banking Organizations Cyber Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Barr noted that cyberattacks against large banks could have implications that stretch far beyond targeted institutions. He noted that ripple effects that contaminate payments systems or liquidity facilities could destabilize the sector as a whole. To prevent these types of episodes, Barr said it will be critical that banks have systems in place to boost their resilience to such attacks. Beyond that, he added, banks need to subject these systems to frequent and substantial tests, noting that the biggest banks could be held to higher standards on this front, especially when it comes to their ability to recover from significant hacks. "We need banks to be quite creative about the kinds of tests they do, to try different angles on the test, to do exercises, war games, to make sure that they understand not only the prevention side, which is so critical, but also when things go wrong because they [have to] have the operational capability to serve their clients," Barr said. "Of course, our expectations for recovery are linked to the criticality of the function of the banking system. Institutions that are absolutely at the core of the financial system need to have the most amount of resiliency and recovery, and our standards are tailored appropriately to the risks that spill over from the institution we're talking about." Barr said cybersecurity readiness could be included as part of the so-called "reverse stress testing" regime he has floated in the past. Unlike traditional stress testing, which explores whether a bank would fail under certain adverse scenarios, reverse stress tests presume a bank does fail and seeks to determine the various circumstances that could have led to its failure. "Humans are so good at pattern recognition, we're really good at finding things that have happened before, but maybe we're less good when a pattern is not one we've seen before," he said. "And so, challenging ourselves, questioning ourselves, using reverse stress testing to think about different patterns is a way of overcoming that human bias." Barr noted that, unlike the annual stress test that the largest banks are put through to determine their stress capital buffer, the reverse stress testing he is considering would have no capital implications for banks.

Fed's Waller says FedNow adoption 'will grow over time' -— Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said Friday that the Fed's real-time payment settlement service FedNow has already grown from a few dozen banks and credit unions as customers to "well over 100" today, and said internal estimates suggest that number could rise up to 350 by year's end.Speaking at a payments conference at the Brookings Institution Friday afternoon, Waller pushed back against the suggestion that banks' uptake of the long-awaited Fed payments settlement service has been lower than expected or a sign of insufficient demand on the part of depository institutions or their customers. "We never expected that we would launch it and there would be 4,000 banks joining it. That was never the expectation or a reality," Waller said. "We have a pipeline of banks that want to join. This will grow over time."Waller added that from the launch of FedNow in July, when the service had 51 depository institutions signed up, the number is "well over 100" today, and that the service is steadily expanding its reach. "There are various estimates that we'll have 250 to 350 by the end of year, and just continue to grow as banks do it," Waller said. "But banks have to see some value proposition to make the investment to join, and that depends on what the customers want." The road to the launch of the FedNow payments service has been circuitous. The central bank began mulling whether to develop its own payment settlement service more than a decade ago and ultimately decided to develop the system in 2019.FedNow competes with another private instant settlement service: Real Time Payments, or RTP, which is operated by The Clearing House, which is itself owned by the largest banks in the country. While RTP has been available to banks and other institutions since 2017, some smaller banks have been skeptical of using a platform owned by their larger competitors. The rollout of FedNow is seen by many as a necessary step to making instant payment settlement ubiquitous throughout the U.S. banking system.Waller also reiterated his position that a central bank digital currency would offer little utility for the Fed, banks or consumers, saying that the existing system of intermediation by banks has been equally effective. Even though some other countries have moved forward with developing a CBDC, he said, there remains no clear use case that could justify having the Fed develop one for the United States."The basic question I asked is what a typical economist would ask, which is: 'What is the major market failure in the payment system that requires a CBDC — and only a CBDC — to solve?'" Waller said. "I posed that question two years ago and I have not heard one satisfactory answer to that question yet. It makes me think that a CBDC is something you could do but there's nothing that makes you need it."

Fed's top regulator calls for discount window readiness by banks — The Federal Reserve's top regulator says banks need to be ready to borrow from the central bank's last resort lending facility in case of an emergency. In a speech Monday afternoon, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said the discount window — through which banks can secure loans on-demand liquidity by posting high quality assets as collateral — is a critical tool for protecting financial stability. But, he noted, too often banks wait to familiarize themselves with the facility until it is too late. "When the system is hit with a shock that results in widespread stress, funding markets are often unable to effectively distribute liquidity," Barr said. "In these cases, the discount window can be particularly important both to the institutions that need liquidity and to the Federal Reserve's efforts to stop dysfunction from spreading and restore stability, but, again, only if banks do the work ahead of time and are ready and able to use it."Barr's remarks, delivered at a luncheon hosted by the Forecasters Club of New York, echo comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in July that banks were working to avoid "clunky" borrowing experiences borrowing from the discount window. Staff at both Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank struggled to pledge assets to the facility during periods of acute distress in March that resulted in their failure.The Fed also joined other bank regulators in issuing formal guidance on discount window usethis summer. Barr also noted, as Fed officials have in the past, that the discount window should be part of an array of funding sources upon which banks rely, including private lenders such as the Federal Home Loan Banks.Barr's comments on emergency borrowing came at the tail end of a speech on the intersection of monetary policy and financial stability within the Fed's remit.During the speech, Barr said it is critical that monetary policymakers be "cognizant" of the impacts their actions have on financial stability, noting that failing to do so could hamper the Fed's ability to deliver its two mandates: stable prices and full employment. "Monetary policy cannot be indifferent to financial stability risks," Barr said. "When financial stability events materialize, they can significantly affect both the price and quantity of credit to the economy. At that point, financial stability problems become a monetary policy concern, as they can adversely affect the flow of credit to households and businesses as well as depress economic activity."At the same time, he said, he favors dealing with risk management and monetary concerns with different tools. Specifically, he noted the importance of supervision in both mitigating risks within the banking system and informing monetary policymakers on the impacts of their actions."As the first line of defense, where we have authority, supervision and regulation are best positioned to address vulnerabilities in the financial system as they emerge," Barr said.

FDIC's McKernan questions rationale behind Basel endgame standards -- Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Board Director Jonathan McKernan said Wednesday he believes the FDIC has not properly justified its rationale for its July proposal implementing the Basel endgame standards, saying the proposal could give nonbanks a competitive edge, drawing deposits out of the highly regulated, insured banking system. McKernan — who voted against the proposal when it was introduced in July — said at an event hosted by law firm Mayer Brown at its offices in New York Wednesday that the board would do better to emphasize orderly resolution of troubled banks rather than attempting to prevent bank failures from ever happening. "I don't think the solution is to pile on more prescriptive regulation or otherwise try to push responsible risk-taking out of the banking system," he said. "I think what we need to do is accept — and I mean truly accept — that bank failures, including large bank failures, are an inevitable result of a dynamic and innovative economy, and we should plan for those bank failures by focusing on strong capital requirements and an effective resolution framework as our best hope for ending this practiced habit we've seemed to develop for privatizing gains while socializing losses." McKernan said a handful of Basel reforms lack rationale and are therefore hard to justify. Regulators' proposal to replace banks' own risk weighting models with a standardized approach effectively increases capital, which banks would otherwise lend out for generating returns. He added that the Basel committee itself noted in its consultative documents that a standardized approach for calculating would result in the overcapitalization of banks with high fee revenue. He noted the international committee even proposed a fix for this issue and the consultative documents, but it then dropped that fix from the final standards without explanation, which he said leaves regulators unable to defend an important formula. Historically, the adequacy and robustness of banks' market risk models are validated through back-testing — which compares the actual outcomes with model forecasts. While the current standards allow banks to use internal risk calculation models on an entity-wide basis, under the proposed Basel endgame standards a bank's trading desk may only use the internal models to calculate the market risk capital requirements once it passes a series of tests that analyze the accuracy of its internal models. Otherwise, the regulator-set standardized approaches must be used. One important part of the Basel proposal — known as the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book — establishes an additional test for trading desks known as the Profit and Loss Attribution, or PLA, test. Banks would need supervisory approval of models at each individual trading desk and the PLA test would grade individual trading desks into one of three rating zones: green, amber or red — which McKernan referred to as a 'traffic light' approach. A desk falling into the amber zone — suggesting a likelihood of discrepancies in their model — would be subject to an additional capital requirement for the desk called the PLA add-on, whereas desks in the red zone would be disqualified from using its internal models. McKernan said he thinks the thresholds used in the PLA test lack justification. "These quantitative thresholds under this traffic light approach really do matter in determining the market risk capital requirement," he said. "Given it's important, you might assume there's ample theory and data to back up the committee's calibration of those thresholds, but as you probably already guessed, there's precious little in the public domain as to how the committee came up with these thresholds."

After Getting the Largest Bailout in U.S. History in 2008, 85.5 Percent of the $1.34 Trillion in Deposits at Citigroup’s Citibank Lack FDIC Insurance Today → By Pam and Russ Martens: October 5, 2023 ~As evidenced by the speech that the FDIC Chair, Martin Gruenberg, delivered at a conference yesterday, the FDIC is very much aware that both the level of uninsured deposits and the concentration of those uninsured deposits among a handful of mega banks is a serious problem for the U.S. banking system. Gruenberg didn’t name names, but we will do that in this article.Gruenberg pointed out in his speech that year-end data for the three banks that failed this past spring indicated that anywhere from 90 percent to 70 percent of their deposits were uninsured. (During a banking panic, uninsured deposits are typically those that head for the exits at the fastest clip.)But those three failed banks (Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank) were minnows compared to the asset-size of the banking whales which now account for the lion’s share of uninsured deposits in the U.S. banking system.According to the FDIC, as of June 30 there were 4,645 federally-insured commercial banks and savings associations in the United States. Uninsured deposits at all 4,645 institutions totaled $7.134 trillion at the end of the second quarter. But according to call reports filed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup’s Citibank as of June 30, just those four banks accounted for $4.185 trillion of uninsured deposits, or 59 percent of all uninsured deposits at all 4,645 federally-insured institutions.That is simply reckless and irresponsible concentration of risk in the U.S. banking system, tolerated by a dysfunctional regulatory system that has been captured by banks and their lobbyists. And, the story goes downhill from there.Citigroup’s Citibank, the bank that blew itself up in 2008 and received the largest taxpayer and Fed bailout in global banking history, indicates in its call report for June 30that 85.5 percent of its $1.338 trillion in total deposits are uninsured. The breakdown is as follows: It has $548.33 billion in uninsured deposits in its domestic offices plus $595.4 billion in deposits in foreign offices. (The FDIC does not insure deposits on foreign soil.) Those two figures tally up to $1.144 trillion in deposits lacking FDIC insurance out of a total deposit base of $1.338 trillion.The breakdown for the other three mega banks are as follows: 59 percent of JPMorgan Chase’s deposits lack FDIC insurance; 51 percent at Wells Fargo; and 49 percent at Bank of America.Under federal statute, the deposits held by U.S. banks that are located on foreign soil are not insured by the FDIC. Depositors in the Cayman Islands’ branch of Silicon Valley Bank found that out the hard way when their deposits were seized by the FDIC earlier this year after the bank failed in March. Deposits in domestic bank offices in the U.S. that exceed $250,000 per depositor/per bank are also not insured by the FDIC. This is clearly a mega bank problem and not a problem for the bulk of well-managed smaller banks in the U.S. As Gruenberg stated in his speech yesterday, “As of December 2022, more than 99 percent of deposit accounts were under the $250,000 deposit insurance limit.” Sheila Bair was the head of the FDIC during the 2008 financial crisis. In her 2012 book, Bull by the Horns, Bair indicates that she believed Citigroup’s two main regulators, John Dugan (a former bank lobbyist) who headed the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a key banking regulator of national banks operating across state lines, and Tim Geithner, then President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, were not being honest with the public on Citigroup’s real condition. There are serious reasons to suspect the same thing today, not the least of which is the fact that the bank’s stock price (dressed up with a 1-for-10 reverse stock split in 2011) remains down more than 90 percent from where it was trading pre-crisis in 2007. You will never guess who Chairs the Board of Directors at Citigroup today? The same John Dugan. You can’t make this stuff up.

BankThink: Bankers should be looking at the inverted yield curve with real alarm | American Banker -- In 2006, I read an article by Nicholas Souleles of the Wharton School of Business entitled Don't Sweat the Inverted Yield Curve: No One Really Knows What It Means," which was published shortly after the yield curve inverted for the first time in five years. In it, he quoted a Wharton finance and management professor saying, "I think [the inverted yield curve] sometimes portends a recession, sometimes not." The general consensus of the article: Economic activity looks positive, don't worry about the inversion.Yet, within mere months, the world was plunged into the depths of the Great Recession.The yield curve is a graphical depiction of interest rates for bonds of the same quality but varying maturities. A normal curve often suggests growth, while an inverted one frequently heralds a recession. It's a tool used to gauge market expectations of future economic activityThe shape of the yield curve is often thought to reflect market expectations of future interest rates, and this idea is commonly known as the "expectations theory." This theory can give clues about future interest rates and economic activity.March 2022 marked the first yield curve inversion since 2019. Currently, the curve shows nearly a 100-basis-point difference between the shortest- and longest-term rates, against a backdrop of the Federal Reserve significantly reducing the M2 money supply.Unlike 2006, when bad credit underwriting and fraud ignited a recession, I believe the next downturn may stem from a banking liquidity crisis. Rising consumer debt, restarted interest accrual on federal student loans, burgeoning business costs and a fragile commercial real estate sector might fuel this crisis.The most recent Household Debt and Credit Report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that student loan debt currently stands at $1.57 trillion dollars and total household debt rose by $16 billion in the second quarter of 2023 to reach $17.06 trillion. The report notes that "Credit card balances saw brisk growth, rising by $45 billion to a series high of $1.03 trillion," indicating that consumers are in trouble.Moreover, with over $3.2 trillion in loans linked to fluctuating short-term secured overnight financing rates, businesses now face substantially higher interest payments than in previous years. This escalation not only tightens available cash for investment and hiring but also strains operating budgets.

BankThink: Higher bank capital requirements would harm low-income borrowers most | American Banker --The Biden administration is attempting to use recent bank failures to exert additional government control over the banking industry. Federal regulators and Biden acolytes are wrongly pointing to current capital requirements as the reason for the collapse of institutions like Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank. As a result, they are pursuing misguided regulations that are likely to have negative economic consequences, especially on underserved American communities.In July, federal banking agencies announced a proposal to increase capital requirements on U.S. banks. Capital requirements are the regulations on banks and other institutions that determine how much capital they must hold at any given time to protect against potential losses. The Biden administration tapped Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr and FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg to market the plan. Their stated reasoning is to prevent more bank failures.However, the closures that made headlines earlier this year had nothing to do with capital requirements, and the proposed rules would not have prevented the fundamental problem of mismanagement by both bank leadership and regulators. For their failures, the Biden administration will reward these same regulators with even more power and authority over the economy.Increasing the amount of capital banks must hold limits their ability to offer affordable and accessible credit. Naturally, more stringent requirements will force banks to reduce credit to many low-income Americans, especially those with lower credit scores. Banks would also be much less likely to increase credit card limits and provide home equity lines of credit. This reduction in available credit could kick many Americans while they are down, increasing their credit utilization and potentially hurting their credit scores. In this way, the Biden administration's plan is harmful to individuals struggling to make ends meet.The proposed regulations would hinder increasing homeownership, a big hit to individuals and communities that face barriers to building generational wealth, illustrated by thehomeownership gap. The homeownership rate for Hispanics in the U.S., for example, hit a 50-year low in 2015. While numbers have since improved, it would be more difficult to see additional progress under banking rules that limit lending and available credit. Homeownership is a key of the American Dream and a pillar of economic progress, stability, as well as an important element in building generational wealth.Properly used credit is another factor in improving the economic condition of communities that suffer from a significant lack of investment. For example, majority Hispanic communities tend to see lower median credit scores than do majority non-Hispanic white communities. This is especially the case for young adults, as 25- to 29-year-olds in majority Hispanic communities have a median credit score of 644, compared to 687 for their non-Hispanic white peers. Young adults in Hispanic communities are more likely to see their credit scores decline as they grow older—26.2% of these Americans saw their scores decrease between 2010 and 2021. This was the case for only 21% of young Americans in majority white communities.

Fed's Bowman wants more research of regulatory thresholds, deposits -- Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman said more research and debate is needed on regulatory thresholds applied to banks and on the deposit insurance system. In remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' annual Community Banking Research Conference on Wednesday, Bowman emphasized the importance of robust studies to inform an "evidence-based approach" to bank regulation. "Research, data and analysis are essential to thoughtful bank regulatory reform," Bowman said. "These tools can be used to identify issues that must be addressed or remediated; they can help us evaluate which elements of the current bank regulatory framework may be effective or ineffective, and they can help us craft reforms with a clearer understanding of the intended and unintended consequences." The conference was co-hosted by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Conference of State Bank Supervisors. During her speech, Bowman lauded the efforts by researchers from the regulatory, academic and banking worlds to gauge the strengths and weaknesses of community banks relative to their larger peers. Bowman said additional research could be used to better define what constitutes a community bank. She questioned whether the longtime threshold of $10 billion of total assets — the point established by the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 at which a bank is subjected to greater regulatory scrutiny — is still an appropriate indication of risk and complexity. "Are these asset-size thresholds properly calibrated, and are the impacts, costs and benefits to institutions and to customers when banks cross these different thresholds rational?" Bowman asked. "Are these thresholds creating the right incentives to promote prudent lending while appropriately balancing risk?" She suggested that it might be appropriate to look beyond "simple asset-size thresholds" when tailoring regulations for individual banks, and she noted that further research could make that possible.

Deutsche Bank regulator tightens oversight in setback to CEO - One of Deutsche Bank's top regulators has tightened how it supervises the lender after it failed to fix widespread shortcomings at its consumer unit quickly enough. German financial watchdog BaFin on Monday said it has appointed an independent monitor to oversee Deutsche Bank's progress in resolving the issues. It's the second time BaFin has taken the unusual step since Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing took office in 2018. The move underscores the regulators' frustration with the lender, which has promised for years to improve its aging information technology and fix long-standing issues in its controls. The issues at the retail unit, which has seen a flood of complaints from clients who have problems accessing their money and reaching customer services, spiked after Deutsche Bank said in July that it had completed the migration of clients from its Postbank unit onto its own system. The large-scale IT project was kicked off in part while Sewing was still overseeing the retail unit. "We are making progress in improving processing times at Postbank," a spokesman said by email. "We will work closely with the financial supervisory authority and its representative to meet the expectations of our regulators and customers affected by inconvenience as quickly as possible." Sewing already has to contend with another monitor appointed by BaFin to oversee progress in improving money-laundering and terrorism finance checks. That monitor was first appointed in 2018, and BaFin has since expanded its mandate. BaFin had previously criticized Deutsche Bank's slow progress in resolving the issues at the retail unit and threatened to take action. Deutsche Bank had counted on a successful completion of the IT revamp, known internally as Project Unity, to start reaping cost savings that it had to postpone for some time now. The resources thrown at Project Unity were a main reason why the lender has fallen behind competitors in developing digital banking offerings.

Brown calls for regulators to look into alleged Wells Fargo labor violations --— Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, called on the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to look into Wells Fargo's unionization efforts and alleged labor abuses. In Wednesday's letter, addressed to the Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr and acting Comptroller Michael Hsu, Brown cited an informal settlement with the National Labor Review Board over a manager allegedly threatening a senior advisor who was disturbing pro-union literature at a call center, three Unfair Labor Practice cases investigated at an Oregon call center and several other Unfair Labor Practice investigations and cases. At the Oregon call center, staffers alleged that flyers posted by members of Wells Fargo Workers United, which was established in late 2021 by employees seeking to unionize, were repeatedly torn down by managers. Workers were also allegedly prohibited from wearing shirts bearing messaging and other imagery associated with the Committee for Better Banks, which helped establish the Workers United group. Brown said that the filings are notable because, in the case of Wells Fargo's fake account scandal, management engaged in "threats and retaliation against thousands of Wells Fargo workers that helped keep the misconduct unabated for years." "It is important that bank regulators consider allegations of unfair labor practices, including threats and retaliation by Wells Fargo against frontline employees, in their assessment of the bank's safety and soundness," Brown said. "Not only are violations of federal labor laws illegal, but they are also indicative of poor corporate governance and risk management. Abusive labor conditions and retaliation against workers who attempt to communicate concerns raise red flags about management quality and can be indicators of greater risk to the institution and consumers." Wells Fargo — which has faced unprecedented regulatory scrutiny in recent years — is alone among the country's largest banks in being subject to a unionization push among its workers. Part of that effort is in response to a culture that workers and regulators say led to employees feeling pressured to sell to the extent that they opened millions of unauthorized bank and credit card accounts for customers."Recent allegations of unfair labor practices against Wells Fargo are yet another example of the bank's pattern of repeatedly violating a range of federal and state laws," Brown said. "Existing monetary penalties and growth restrictions have not been sufficient to prevent Wells Fargo from repeated consumer abuses, compliance failures, and gross mismanagement. Regulators should take stronger actions to change Wells Fargo's culture of noncompliance and account for the troubling unfair labor practice allegations that could be the bellwether for broader safety and soundness and consumer compliance risks"

BankThink: Supreme Court should find CFPB's funding illegal, leave remedy to Congress | American Banker - Tomorrow, the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in Consumer Financial Protection Bureau v. Community Financial Services Association, a case which poses an existential threat to the CFPB. I have been asked time and again by clients, other industry folks and media what I think the Supreme Court will do. While it is always hazardous to predict the outcome of cases pending before the Supreme Court, particularly one in which oral argument has not yet been held, here is my opinion on how I think the Supreme Court should rule. When the CFPB was created as part of the Dodd-Frank Act in 2010, the intent of Congress was to create an agency that would be totally insulated from political pressure from the president and Congress. The president could remove the agency's director only for good cause, a feature which the Supreme Court invalidated a few years ago as being contrary to the separation of powers and thus unconstitutional. Congress conferred on this agency sweeping and extraordinary regulatory, supervisory and enforcement powers that dwarfed the powers held by the Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Federal Trade Commission. In order to enable the CFPB to act swiftly, Congress decided to repose all the power in a single director who would answer to nobody. (When has it ever been a good idea to have a single leader who answers to nobody?) The centerpiece of this legislation was the unique provision that gave the director the right to demand funds each year from the Federal Reserve System, rather than from Congress as part of the annual appropriations process. To put it succinctly, Congress created the poster child for the administrative state on steroids.The Supreme Court should hold that the funding of the CFPB is unconstitutional because it violates the appropriations clause of the Constitution, which states that "[n]o Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law." The CFPB can directly requisition from the Federal Reserve Board "the amount determined by the Director to be reasonably necessary to carry out" the CFPB's functions each year, subject to a very high statutory cap which has never come close to being reached. (It is the equivalent of giving the CFPB a blank check.)As the CFPB itself, rather than Congress, decides the amount of its annual funding, the funds are not "drawn … in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law." At our founding, an appropriation was considered a specific sum. The only "appropriation" that determines the "sum" that the CFPB takes each year is made by the CFPB unilaterally, not Congress. The CFPB argues that Dodd-Frank not only created the agency but also authorized its perpetual funding through the Fed. However, that assertion is in conflict with the appropriations clause which requires an agency to go to Congress for its periodic funding. In short, Congress cannot delegate its power of the purse to an agency which it has created.

Five issues to watch in CFPB's Supreme Court constitutionality case --The Supreme Court is set to hear another challenge to the constitutionality of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the watchdog agency envisioned by Sen. Elizabeth Warren after the 2008 financial crisis. The high court will hear oral arguments on Oct. 3 on a topic central to the Constitution's separation of powers and one the court has typically avoided addressing: Should there be any parameters placed around Congress' authority over the government's pursestrings? Congress created the CFPB through the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act and specified that the CFPB's director request money from the Federal Reserve Board, subject to specific limitations, to fund the bureau's operations. Last year, the CFPB received $642 million in funding.The case, CFPB v. Community Financial Services Association of America, hinges on whether the bureau's funding outside the congressional appropriations process is constitutional. The court is poised to answer the question of whether the CFPB's payday lending rule should be vacated because its funding violates the Appropriations clause, clause, which says that "no money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in consequence of appropriations made by law." The case is being closely watched for its impact not only on the agency's own funding but also on the funding of other regulatory agencies. Because the Constitution gives Congress authority over the budget, many legal experts think the court's traditionalist justices will rule in favor of the CFPB — rather than double-guess Congress' power over the purse that could potentially open the door for challenges to the funding of other agencies.While some industry experts want the Supreme Court to gut the CFPB entirely or undo all of the bureau's past actions and rules, legal briefs — including those from the payday lenders that sued the agency — do not support such a sweeping change, experts said. A ruling in the case is expected in April 2024. In 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that the CFPB's leadership structure was unconstitutional, but the court stopped short of disbanding the agency. In a split 5-4 decision authored by Chief Justice John Roberts, the high court found that the agency's structure vested too much power in the hands of one person and that the president has broad authority to appoint and remove agency heads.Here are five issues to watch for in the high court's oral arguments:

• The nitty-gritty of what constitutes "double insulation". The case came before the Supreme Court after three judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit ruled last year that the CFPB's funding made it "doubly insulated" from congressional oversight. The three-judge panel, all appointed by President Trump, blamed Congress for ceding both direct and indirect control over the CFPB's budget by allowing the agency to determine its own funding from the Federal Reserve, outside of appropriations. The Fifth Circuit said the bureau's funding constituted "a double insulation from Congress's purse strings," which runs "afoul of the separation of powers embodied in the Appropriations Clause." But in March, the Second Circuit Court of Appeals came to the opposite conclusion and found no precedent to support the Fifth Circuit's ruling.
• Disruption at other agencies and potential for more challenges. In the horse-trading around the passage of the Dodd-Frank Act, lawmakers housed the CFPB within the Federal Reserve System largely because banks did not want to pay fees or assessments to fund the agency. Congress has historically given independence to financial regulators to protect the public interest and shield agencies from manipulation or self-dealing by lawmakers and industry. A core argument that liberal justices may raise is what impact a ruling against the CFPB would have on other agencies such as the Federal Reserve and the Federal Housing Finance Agency that are similarly funded.
• Conflating power with funding. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, American Bankers Association, Consumer Bankers Association and Independent Community Bankers of America, joined by six other trade groups, have argued that the CFPB has "vast authority" that makes it unique from other agencies. The trade groups claim that the CFPB's funding should be restricted because they view the bureau as having too much power.But many supporters of the CFPB reject that argument, claiming that the payday lenders are conflating the CFPB's powers with its funding.
• Warren warns of CFPB's future under Congressional appropriations. As another government shutdown looms, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., the architect of the CFPB, has warned about the dangers of putting the agency through the appropriations process.
  On Thursday, Warren said in a speech to the Center for American Progress that a Republican-controlled Congress could "starve the CFPB of resources and neuter its ability to go after wrongdoing," should the Supreme Court decide that its funding structure is unconstitutional. "There's an extra dose of irony that this attack on the CFPB comes less than 48 hours away from a government shutdown," Warren said. "The financial regulators — all the financial regulators — from the Fed to the FDIC to the CFPB are designed to function all the time." She said that other financial regulators, such as the Fed and the FDIC — both of which are funded outside of Congressional appropriations — will be able to continue functioning outside of a government shutdown because they draw money outside of appropriations, and that it's important that the CFPB does as well.
• Chaos in the mortgage market. Recently CFPB Director Rohit Chopra has warned that if the agency is found to be unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, it could destabilize the housing market. The Mortgage Bankers Association, the National Association of Home Builders and the National Association of Realtors also filed legal briefs in the case that raise concerns about "potentially catastrophic consequences" if the CFPB's existing rules are invalidated. "I think the justices will be very responsive to the MBA's concerns in that regard and there will be some focus on what kind of remedy can we fashion that won't disrupt all the various industries," said Nararelli.Mortgage lenders have argued that virtually all residential real estate transactions depend on compliance with the CFPB's rules, including consumer protections. Lenders have invested billions of dollars into structuring their operations around the CFPB's rules and guidelines, in particular mortgage disclosure forms that are required under the Truth in Lending Act and Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act. Lenders also claim that "the housing market could descend into chaos to the detriment of all mortgage borrowers" if mortgage rules are challenged and lenders are hit with "potentially crippling liability."

Supreme Court skeptical of CFPB funding challenge — During oral arguments at the Supreme Court Tuesday, justices across the political spectrum appeared highly skeptical that Congress improperly funded the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau by tethering its budget to the Federal Reserve. While the Supreme Court's conservative majority is dubious of broad federal agency authority, a majority of justices questioned whether the Constitution's appropriations clause set any limits on Congress' ability to determine how a federal agency is funded. The justices spent most of the 90 minutes of oral arguments focused on Congress' power of the purse, with very little time discussing what remedy there would be, if any, should the CFPB's funding be found to be unconstitutional. Justice Clarence Thomas asked during the arguments whether the agency's setup "eviscerates the kind of exacting control that Congress usually exercises in the appropriations process." "Are there any limits on what Congress can do?" Thomas asked. Elizabeth B. Prelogar, the acting solicitor general representing the CFPB, repeatedly urged the justices to focus on the language of the appropriations clause, which states that "no money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in consequence of appropriations made by law." "This is not novel," Prelogar said of the CFPB's funding structure, noting that since 1789 Congress has used its broad delegation authority to set funding levels for agencies as varied as the U.S. Customs Service, the U.S. Postal Service and the U.S. Mint. The issue before the court is whether the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit erred last year when it found that the CFPB violated the appropriations clause. A three-judge panel of the 5th Circuit, all appointed by President Trump, found that the agency's funding through the Federal Reserve System meant it was "doubly insulated" from congressional control. Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh threw cold water on the idea that the Congress has no control over the agency. He said there would be a problem if a future Congress could not change the CFPB's funding — but that Congress can do so at any time. "If the majority of the Congress said they were not going to fund the agency tomorrow, they could do that," Kavanaugh said.

CFPB plans to hire 50% more enforcement attorneys, support staff --The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is embarking on a hiring spree, increasing the number of full-time employees in its enforcement division by 50% and hiring additional staff in its legal, operations and research, monitoring and regulations divisions.CFPB Director Rohit Chopra has allocated about 75 new full-time employees to the enforcement division, according to an internal memo from Eric Halperin, the CFPB's enforcement chief. The CFPB has roughly 150 enforcement attorneys and support staff. The hiring is one of the largest recruitment drives at the agency. "These additional resources will enable us to open more investigations, including matters with significant market impact and against large market actors, consistent with the Bureau's priorities," Halperin wrote in the memo. "We also will be in a better position to meet resource demands from our increasing number of matters in contested litigation."The memo from Halperin was sent to employees on Sept. 21, roughly two weeks before the Supreme Court heard a case challenging the constitutionality of the CFPB's funding structure. In the past year the CFPB has been sued by trade groups and financial institutions, and has faced pushback against its investigations and enforcement actions. After oral arguments were heard in the case on Tuesday, many legal experts said the CFPB appeared likely to prevail because many of the justices appeared skeptical of defunding the agency. "I think they're feeling good about the Supreme Court case and are letting people know what's coming down the road," Jonathan Pompan, a partner and chair of the consumer financial services practice group at Venable LLP, said the ramp-up in hiring would give the CFPB the capacity to take on 25 to 30 additional investigations, plus more enforcement actions and litigation stemming from exam findings. "As an agency in its second decade, and despite a large swath of banks and nonbanks falling under supervision and examination authority, and having robust enforcement capacity, Chopra and his senior management team are no doubt aware that many financial institutions and service providers have not been scrutinized," Pompan said. Since last October, when an appeals court ruled that the bureau's funding violated the Constitution's structural separation of powers, many financial institutions have asked for enforcement actions to be put on hold. Others have sued the CFPB to halt rules from going into effect until the Supreme Court case is resolved. For example, in July, a federal judge agreed to halt the bureau's small-business data collection rule for members of the American Bankers Association and the Texas Bankers Association. Then in September, a federal district court in Kentucky prohibited the bureau from enforcingthe same rule, known as 1071 for its section in the Dodd-Frank Act, until the high court issues an opinion, expected early next year. While many financial institutions have been hoping the CFPB and all its past actions will be eliminated by the Supreme Court, Pompan said that "betting on the Bureau being obliterated is not a risk management strategy — except for entities that believe they are in the right yet find themselves being pushed into CFPB sue or settle territory for alleged past violations of law.

CFPB's Chopra warns of 'consolidated' payments market, previews new guidance — Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director Rohit Chopra said in a speech Friday that the absence of clear rules around digital payments and data protection could lead to a payments system in the United States where commerce and payments are consolidated, with profound implications for data privacy and financial stability. Speaking at an event at the Brookings Institution Friday, Chopra said the payments infrastructure that has emerged in China could pose an ominous model for private actors in the United States to follow if left unchecked. "I fear that the U.S. is lurching toward a consolidated market structure like the one that has emerged in China that blurs the lines between payments and commerce and creates the incentives for excessive surveillance and even financial censorship," Chopra said. "As we seek to configure a payments architecture that can provide safe and secure electronic cash, we should make sure that the deployment of private sector technologies and services are aligned with our values for fair competition, consumer protection and our national security." Chopra said the bureau is poised to take some preliminary actions to address those concerns. The agency is poised to issue supplemental orders to "certain large technology firms" seeking additional information on "specific business practices and plans, especially with respect to the use of personal data and any issuance of private currency." The bureau is also exploring the issuance of new guidance to bank and nonbank firms "regarding the applicability of the Electronic Fund Transfer Act with respect to private digital dollars and other virtual currencies," Chopra said. The CFPB has been circling the data and payments activities of tech giants like Apple and Google for some time. The agency issued a request for information and public comment on big tech firms data practices in 2021 and again in 2022, and has more recently had an item on its regulatory agenda to use the "large participant" rule to rein in what it views as consumer-harming practices in payments and other activities. Chopra went on to say the bureau is looking at "a number of authorities" under its control to conduct examinations of nonbank payments platforms, and said the Financial Stability Oversight Council should use its authority under Title VIII of Dodd-Frank to designate payments platforms as an activity that either contains systemic risk or "as likely to become a systemically important payment clearing or settlement activity." That recommendation is in line with one outlined in a 2021 report from the President's Working Group that suggested that, absent legislation from Congress, the FSOC could create the necessary cover for prudential regulators to oversee payments platforms using its activities designation authority. When asked whether the FSOC was actually contemplating such a move, Chopra demurred, but said activities like nonbank payments rails and stablecoin issuance could be addressed under the same authority. "It would be highly inappropriate, as you know, to comment on the deliberations that we have on that, but it is explicitly referenced in the 2021 report," Chopra said. Such a designation, absent directives from Congress, "at a minimum … would provide some additional tools on liquidity on standards to make sure that some of the risks about coins being runnable, about creating destabilization — that could be addressed." Chopra added that the bureau on its own will publish "later this month" a rule outlining consumers' rights with respect to financial data under Section 1033 of the Dodd-Frank Act, along-awaited rulemaking that could open the door for so-called open banking in the United States. Chopra said that a key feature of that proposal would be limiting the scope of what kinds of activities financial firms can engage in with personal data, particularly with respect to the interaction of traditional banking activities and traditional commerce.

Inside the Discover consent order: A sweeping audit, but no fines -Discover Financial Services disclosed late last week that it had agreed in a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. consent order to perform a sweeping audit with a commitment to overhaul any gaps, and it appears the credit card company escaped without any monetary penalties or fines.The document sheds light on internal compliance lapses around consumer protection laws and regulations that may have contributed to the ouster of Discover's longtime CEO Roger Hochschild in mid-August. John Owen, a board member and former top executive at Regions Financial, is acting as interim CEO while Discover conducts a search for a new leader.The FDIC consent order, which Discover disclosed in July when reporting second-quarter results, is unrelated to a separate problem Discover revealed at that time, when it said it had been overcharging some merchants for credit card account fees dating back to 2007, to the tune of about $400 million. Discover vowed then to conduct an internal view of the company's compliance, risk management and governance. Discover's earlier student-loan compliance issues, which date back several years, also are unrelated to the recent FDIC consent order, which pertains only to consumer banking products. Discover in 2015 reached a consent decree with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on student loan servicing lapses, and in 2020 Discover was ordered to pay $35 million in penaltiesfor those violations. Discover recently said it has hired more than 200 new employees and increased its board of directors' oversight to improve its compliance and risk functions, and analysts say the consent order enables Discover to put the latest round of regulatory uncertainties behind it. Discover last month also added an ex-FDIC official to its board."We believe these recent events will be in the rearview mirror fairly soon, with the company resuming its share buyback in the near future," said analysts for Jefferies Research Services in a Monday note to investors.

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Nightmare Levels, Malls Have Been a Nightmare for Years by Wolf Richter • Lodging is Bad, Multifamily hangs in there, Industrial remains unscathed. --As we have found out in the recent episodes of the commercial real estate nightmare, with landlords stiffing their creditors by either walking away from properties or loans and letting lenders take the massive losses: Those lenders have turned out to be mostly investors in Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS), Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs), and mortgage-REITS, not banks. Banks are taking some hits too, but not like these investors. Which gave rise to the theory around here that banks securitized most of their riskiest and worst CRE loans and sloughed them off years ago to investors that were chasing yield.So the delinquency rate of commercial mortgages on office properties that had been securitized into CMBS spiked to 5.6% by loan balance in September, having more than tripled so far this year, from a delinquency rate of 1.6% in December, according to Trepp, which tracks and analyzes CMBS.The cycle during the Financial Crisis, when delinquency rates eventually exceeded 10% in 2012 and 2013, started more slowly and proceeded more slowly than this cycle. This is a ferocious deterioration:This time around, the landlords are walking away from the office properties or mortgages for two reasons:

1. Huge vacancy rates that are now a structural problem as Corporate America has discovered that it doesn’t need and won’t ever need all this office space;
2. CRE mortgage rates that have more than doubled, which is a killer when variable-rate mortgages aren’t sufficiently hedged, and it’s a killer when a maturing 3.5% fixed-rate mortgage needs to be refinanced with an 8% mortgage.

When this occurs, the interest expense that the landlord has to deal with can no longer be covered by rents, especially if the building has a low occupancy rate. And then it’s just a money pit. The landlord gives up the building, takes the loss on their equity, and lets these investors take the remaining losses. The fate is even worse for mall CMBS. Mortgages for malls have been in trouble for over a decade due to a structural shift to ecommerce that has killed innumerable malls – a process that I have called brick-and-mortar meltdown since 2016. It has caused landlords – even the biggest mall landlords, Simon Property Group and Brookfield – to walk away from mall after mall and let these investors take the losses. Zombie malls are everywhere. Eventually developers end up with them, bulldoze them, and build something else on that land, such as housing. And all along the way, CMBS investors have taken massive losses.The delinquency rate of retail CMBS surged during the Financial Crisis. In the years after the Financial Crisis, as these loans were either taken out of the index after foreclosure or as the delinquency was cured, the default rate declined to just under a still high 4%, when the pandemic hit, and delinquencies spiked.In September, the delinquency rate ticked up to 6.92%: Lodging CMBS delinquency rates exploded during the Financial Crisis and during the pandemic, but then recovered, sort of. Lodging delinquencies remained high in September at 5.3%, roughly unchanged from August, but down from July (5.9%), and over three times the rate in 2019: Multifamily delinquencies have been bobbing along relatively low levels still. In September, they ticked up to 1.85%. These are “private label” CMBS, not multifamily mortgages backed by the government.There have been some big delinquencies, including the mortgages backed by a portfolio of 75 apartment buildings owned by Veritas in San Francisco, which caused the delinquency rate to jump in December 2022.There is demand for apartments, unlike offices, and it’s not a problem of not being able to find tenants. The problem with some of these mortgages is the interest cost. When the mortgage comes due and has to be refinanced with a much higher rate, or if it’s a variable-rate mortgage, then the difficulties arise.In the chart below, the plunge in the delinquency rate in January 2016 occurred because a huge delinquent loan was resolved, backed by Stuyvesant Town–Peter Cooper Village, a residential development in Manhattan with 110 apartment buildings. Blackstone and Ivanhoe Cambridge agreed to pay $5.3 billion in 2015 for the 80-acre property. After the deal closed in December 2015, the $3 billion in CMBS loans tied to the property was paid off, triggering the drop in the CMBS delinquency rate in January 2016.

Watchdog calls on HUD to step up its game in manufactured housing -- The Department of Housing and Urban Development should step up its efforts to make manufactured housing more accessible, a Congressional watchdog urged in a late September report.The department can accomplish this by doing more to update its policies and procedures, which currently create barriers for both borrowers and lenders, according to the Government Accountability Office. Some industry stakeholders see manufactured housing as a prime opportunity to alleviate affordability and inventory challenges the U.S. is currently facing.But the origination of such loans has been sparse with a little over 26,000 HUD Title II loans originated in 2021. No HUD Title I loans of this type – manufactured homes secured by personal property – were originated that year, per Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data.The GAO recommends the department take several steps to ramp up the number of Title I loans it guarantees by making changes to loan limits, which haven't been adjusted since 2008. This is despite the average sales price of a manufactured house increasing by 66% from 2014 to 2021.The maximum amount the Federal Housing Administration allows for a Title I manufactured-home loan is $69,678 per unit, while the average cost of a new home is a little over $100,000, the watchdog's report said.Additionally, the GAO called on Ginnie Mae to advance the secondary market for these federally insured loans. In fiscal year 2022, Ginnie had about $167 million of manufactured home mortgage-backed securities in its guaranteed portfolio, down from $278 million in FY 2017."FHA and Ginnie Mae could help promote the availability and affordability of manufactured housing and achieve the long-standing purpose set out in the Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000," the watchdog said in its audit report.The almost three-decade-old legislation directs the department to review its programs for manufactured home loans and develop changes that would help promote the affordability of such properties. A 2022 HUD review of its programs resulted in a proposal to annually adjust Title I loan limits using an indexing methodology based on sale prices, but the change has yet to be implemented.Overall, personal property loans have had a higher denial rate compared to manufactured home mortgages. In 2021, lenders denied 50% of personal-property loan applications compared with 31% of manufactured home mortgages, per GAO's analysis.Despite the stall in changing limits, the department has signaled that manufactured housing is top-of-mind. In 2023, HUD announced an organizational reshuffle that elevated the manufactured housing program within the agency.

Reverse-mortgage lawsuit claims Ginnie Mae reneged on loan promises Federal housing authorities persuaded Texas Capital Bancshares to help with the fallout from a bankrupt reverse-mortgage provider, then went back on their promises of financial support, the company said in a lawsuit Wednesday. Ginnie Mae canceled liens on tens of millions of dollars in collateral after the bank agreed to make a loan to Reverse Mortgage Funding LLC, according to the lawsuit. The loan was intended to prop up customers of the failed company, which was one of the largest providers of government-backed reverse mortgages. The firm's Texas Capital Bank unit provided the funds "on an emergency basis, in an effort to protect thousands of senior citizen mortgagors," the bank said in the complaint. "Just weeks later, Ginnie Mae reversed course and purported to leave TCB empty-handed." The controversy traces its roots to last year's bankruptcy of Reverse Mortgage Funding. Like many in the industry, the firm had been squeezed by surging interest rates and regulatory pressures. Texas Capital claims in the lawsuit that Ginnie Mae persuaded it to provide debtor-in-possession financing after the failure of Reverse Mortgage Funding. "After inducing TCB to lend tens of millions of dollars so as to rescue RMF, thousands of retirees, and the politically important" Home Equity Conversion Mortgage program, Ginnie Mae nullified the bank's priority lien, according to the lawsuit, which was filed in federal court in Amarillo, Texas. "Ginnie Mae seeks to declare by fiat that TCB's only recourse for repayment is RMF — a bankrupt entity with few if any assets." Texas Capital said Ginnie Mae's actions may force it to quit making reverse mortgages entirely, adding to pressure on the already weakened industry. "If permitted, Ginnie Mae's position will likely trigger an unwillingness on the part of lenders (including TCB) to extend financing necessary for millions of current and future seniors to fund their retirement, and will threaten the viability of the HECM program," the company said in the complaint. Ginnie Mae didn't immediately respond to a request for comment on the lawsuit.

Federal court rules against servicers in pay-to-pay lawsuit -- A federal district court in Houston ruled in favor of a class-action plaintiff last week in a three-year-old case involving pay-to-pay fees, approving a summary judgment against two mortgage servicers.The case, originally filed in 2020, claimed Lakeview Loan Servicing and its subservicer LoanCare had unlawfully charged fees of up to $12 per month to borrowers of Federal Housing Administration-sponsored loans who paid their bills by phone. The collection of what some call junk fees amounted to violations of the Texas Debt Collection Act, according to the law firm Bailey & Glasser, who represented plaintiff for the class Ursula Williams. A summary judgment in August denied the defendants' claims, including Lakeview's assertions it was not directly involved in pay-to-pay collection due to its subservicing agreement with LoanCare. The judge's recommendation in the August filing said, "The TDCA applies to anyone who 'directly or indirectly engages in debt collection.'"After reviewing the August summary findings following objections by the defendants, a different judge adopted them last week, approving in favor of Williams."This case is a big win for American consumers who struggle enough without being nickel-and-dimed by illegal junk fees," said lead counsel James Kauffman in a press release. Kauffman also labeled such charges "unlawful."In his written opinion, Judge Charles Eskridge cited flaws in Lakeview's and LoanCare's objections to the August decision, indicating they "largely reiterated their original arguments." He also said he had examined their objections and found "that they lack merit" for reasons stated in the previous ruling.Defendants had also argued that their refund of pay-to-pay fees to Williams, and their voluntary discontinuation of such charges during COVID-19, rendered the original case moot and eliminated the need to determine legality, claims the judges also denied. The decision by the courts "will allow the plaintiffs to obtain a permanent injunction that will prevent the companies from ever collecting these fees again in Texas," according to Bailey & Glasser.

FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores -- Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database through Q2 2023 (released last Friday). Here is some data showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q2 2023. This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. The percent of outstanding loans under 4% peaked in Q1 2022 at 65.3%, and the percent under 5% peaked at 85.6%. These low existing mortgage rates makes it difficult for homeowners to sell their homes and buy a new home since their monthly payments would increase sharply. This is a key reason existing home inventory levels are so low. The percent of loans over 6% bottomed in Q2 2022 at 7.1% and has increased to 10.5% in Q2 2023. And here is another way to look at the data. Yesterday, ICE (formerly Black Knight) released their monthly mortgage monitor and included this graph of active mortgages by interest rate. Note the higher mortgage rates for the 2023 vintage - still a small portion of the overall market. A large portion of active mortgages are in the 2020-2022 vintages when mortgage rates were below 4%. Here are graphs on the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA data base.

ICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Set Yet Another Record in August" -- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: ICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Set Yet Another Record in August" A brief excerpt: Some interesting data on mortgage rates. Note the higher mortgage rates for the 2023 vintage - still a small portion of the overall market. A large portion of active mortgages are in the 2020-2022 vintages.

• Given all the talk about near-term prepayment risk – and quick-turn refinance incentive – among recent originations, we thought it prudent to see how much refinance volume may make its way into the market should 30-year rates begin to ease
• As loans seasoned between two and ten years tend to have rates lower than 5%, we explore the distribution of current interest rates among recent originations to help quantify where any pockets of opportunity may exist
• Mortgages originated over the past 18 months are evenly distributed across rate bands ranging from the mid-3% range up through the high 6% range, meaning that rate/term refinance volumes would return gradually should rates improve
• Relatively few loans (~600K as of August month end) have interest rates at or above 7%, such that it would take rates markedly lower than they are today to spur any meaningful refinance incentive
• While 600K may sound significant, historically an average month yields 430K refinances, if every homeowner with a first lien rate of 7% or higher were to refinance it would only result in 1.5 months of ‘normal’ volume
• Another 1.9M loans have rates between 6% and 7%, which would produce moderate opportunity, but rates would need to come down to the mid- to low-5% range to put all of those borrowers in the money, and even that would only be enough for a few months of sustained volume

CoreLogic: US Annual Home Price Growth Rate Increased in August -- The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: US Annual Home Price Growth Picks Up Pace in August, CoreLogic Reports
•U.S. home prices increased year over year for the 139th consecutive month in August.
• Home prices are 42% higher compared with March 2020, when the pandemic began.
• August’s annual 3.7% home price gain was the highest since February 2023.
• CoreLogic projects that year-over-year home price appreciation will relax slightly by August 2024 to 3.4%.
• Eight states, mostly in the West, saw year-over-year home price declines, the fewest since February 2023.
• Of large metro areas, Miami continued to lead the country for annual home price growth, with an 8.3% gain.
• The median sales price for a U.S. single-family home remained at $375,000 in August, with California ($705,000), the District of Columbia ($630,000) and Massachusetts ($585,000) again leading the nation.
CoreLogic’s Home Price Index dropped to an 11-year low in the spring of 2023 but is starting to regain momentum. While some states in the West still posted annual home price losses in August, that number has been decreasing since the spring of this year. Meanwhile, housing markets in New England are starting to heat up, with New Hampshire, Maine, Vermont and Rhode Island seeing the largest year-over-year price gains in August. “While continued mortgage rate increases challenge affordability across U.S. housing markets, home price growth is in line with typical seasonal averages, reflecting strong demand bolstered by a healthy labor market, strong wage growth and supporting demographic trends,“ said Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Still, with a slower buying season ahead and the surging cost of homeownership, additional monthly price gains may taper off.”This index was up 2.5% YoY in July.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in August to New High; Up 4.0% Year-over-year --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in August to New High; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 4.0% in August, from up 3.0% YoY in July. The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% in May 2023. ... In August, 11 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Utah (-3.8%), Arizona (-3.4%), Hawaii (-3.4%), Idaho (-3.2%), and Nevada (-2.8%). For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. ... I’ll have an update on the House Price Battle Royale: Low Inventory vs Affordability soon.

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 2.6% YoY; New Listings Down 1.2% YoY - Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Hannah Jones: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Sep 30, 2023 Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 2.6%. During the past week, we observed the 15th successive weekly drop in the number of homes available for sale relative to the previous year. However, this decline showed another improvement compared to the previous week’s -3.7% figure. New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down by just 1.2% from one year ago. Over the past 65 weeks, we’ve consistently seen a decline in the number of newly listed homes compared to the same period one year ago. However, the difference narrowed to the smallest gap in the 65 week stretch.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was down 1.2% year-over-year - this was the fifteenth consecutive week with a YoY decrease following 58 consecutive weeks with a YoY increase in inventory. The YoY declines in inventory have been getting smaller recently but will likely stay down YoY for the remainder of 2023 since inventory was increasing late into the year last year.New listings really collapsed a year ago, so the YoY comparison is easier now - and new listings are still historically very low.

Construction Spending Increased 0.5% in August - From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during August 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,983.5 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised July estimate of $1,973.7 billion. The August figure is 7.4 percent above the August 2022 estimate of $1,847.3 billion. Both private and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,551.8 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised July estimate of $1,544.6 billion. ... In August, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $431.6 billion, 0.6 percent above the revised July estimate of $429.1 billion. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential (red) spending is 9.3% below the recent peak. Non-residential (blue) spending is at a new peak. Public construction spending is also at a new peak. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is down 3.1%. Non-residential spending is up 19.7% year-over-year. Public spending is up 14.1% year-over-year.This was at consensus expectations for 0.5% increase in spending. Construction spending for the previous two months was revised down slightly, combined.

Las Vegas August 2023: Visitor Traffic Up 4.0% YoY; Convention Traffic Up Sharply YoY -- From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: August 2023 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics August was a solid month with more than 3.3M visitors as weekend occupancy was largely on par with last year while midweek saw notable gains supported in part by a strengthening convention segment that included recurring shows such as ASD Market Week as well the Summer 2023 Las Vegas Market show at World Market Center which fell in August this year vs. July in 2022. Overall hotel occupancy reached 80.3% for the month (+3.5 pts YoY) as Weekend occupancy came in at 89.7% (‐0.4 pts YoY), and Midweek occupancy reached 77.0%, surpassing last August by 4.8 pts. ADR growth continued in August, approaching $159, +7.0% YoY while RevPAR exceeded $127, +11.9% YoY. The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (light blue), 2021 (purple), 2022 (orange), and 2023 (red). Visitor traffic was up 4.0% compared to last August. Visitor traffic was down 7.2% compared to the same month in 2019. The second graph shows convention traffic. Convention traffic was up 64.3% compared to August 2022, and down 1.6% compared to August 2019. Note: There was almost no convention traffic from April 2020 through May 2021.

Trade Deficit decreased to $58.3 Billion in August - The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $58.3 billion in August, down $6.4 billion from $64.7 billion in July, revised.August exports were $256.0 billion, $4.1 billion more than July exports. August imports were $314.3 billion, $2.3 billion less than July imports.Exports increased and imports decreased in August.Exports are down 2% year-over-year; imports are down 4% year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back - and both have been decreasing recently. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have picked up. The trade deficit with China decreased to $26.0 billion from $37.5 billion a year ago.

AAR: September Rail Carloads and Intermodal Increased Year-over-year - From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. As is usually the case, in September some rail sectors did better than others. There were clearly some good signs. For example, U.S. intermodal originations in September 2023 averaged 252,224 containers and trailers per week, the most for any month since October 2022. August, September, and October are typically the highest-volume U.S. intermodal months, reflecting “peak season” shipments ahead of the holidays. In September, intermodal originations were up 0.7% over last year, just their second increase in 26 months. ... Total carloads on U.S. railroads in September 2023 were up 2.3% over September 2022, their first increase in four months and their biggest percentage gain since January 2023. Total carloads averaged 230,429 per week in September 2023, the most since October 2022. Year-to-date total carloads were up 0.3% over 2022 and up 0.7% over 2021 This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and 2022: U.S. railroads originated 921,716 total carloads in September 2023, up 2.3% (20,754 carloads) over September 2022. That’s the first year-over-year increase for total carloads in four months and the biggest percentage increase since January 2023. Total carloads averaged 230,429 per week in September 2023, the most since October 2022. Intermodal isn’t included in carloads. The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2021, 2022 and 2023: (using intermodal or shipping containers):U.S. intermodal originations were up 0.7% in September 2023 over September 2022. That’s just the second year-over-year increase for intermodal since July 2021, a span of 26 months. (The other increase, in February 2022 over February 2021, shouldn’t count because it was a function of severe ice storms in February 2021 that caused an easy comparison when February 2022 came along.) U.S. intermodal volume in September 2023 averaged 252,224 containers and trailers per week, the most for any month since October 2022.

Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE - During the early stages of the pandemic, energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE hit an all-time low of 3.3% of PCE. Then energy expenditures increased to 2018 levels by the end of 2021. With the invasion of Ukraine, energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE increased further in 2022.Here is an update through the August 2023 PCE report. This graph shows expenditures on energy goods and services as a percent of total personal consumption expenditures. This is one of the measures that Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser looks at to evaluate any drag on GDP from energy prices.Data source: BEA. In general, energy expenditures as a percent of PCE has been trending down for decades. The huge spikes in energy prices during the oil crisis of 1973 and 1979 are obvious. As is the increase in energy prices during the 2001 through 2008 period.In August 2023, energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE were at 4.3% of PCE, up from 4.1% in July, and down from the recent peak of 5.2% in June 2022. This is still above the pre-pandemic level of around 3.8% of PCE.

Vehicles Sales increase to 15.67 million SAAR in September; Up 15% YoY - Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for September: September U.S. Light-Vehicles Sales Bounce Back Despite Gloomy Conditions (pay site). Hard to say exactly how much but sales could have been slightly stronger in September if not for some lost inventory caused by production cuts related to plant shutdowns from UAW strikes at Ford, General Motors and Stellantis. Sales losses will be more strongly felt in October as production cuts mount.This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for September (red).The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month. After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic). However, sales decreased in 2021 due to supply issues. The "supply chain bottom" was in September 2021.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing. This time vehicle sales were more suppressed by supply chain issues and have picked up recently.Sales in September were above the consensus forecast.

New Vehicle Sales +20% in Q3 YoY. Pent-Up Demand Comes Home to Roost. Our Drunken Sailors in No Mood for a Recession by Wolf Richter - Automakers have now reported US deliveries: New vehicle sales in Q3 jumped 20.6% year-over-year to 4.08 million vehicles, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. These cars, SUVs, pickups, and vans were delivered by dealers or by automakers directly (Tesla et al.) to their end-users. Compared to Q2, sales were roughly even, which is fairly common for Q2 and Q3, given the seasonality in auto sales that is so obvious in the quarterly not-seasonally-adjusted chart below. Also clear from the chart is that new vehicle sales have been a no-growth business since the 1980s, and only price increases and more expensive fancier models kept revenues growing. This lousy environment, so dependent on constant price increases to obtain revenue increases, is now being made miserable for legacy automakers by Tesla, which has come along with massive price cuts. The inventory shortages of yore are largely gone, though some vehicles remain in short supply, while others are overstocked. Automakers are again piling on incentives – incentive spending reached $1,806 on average per vehicle in September, or 3.7% of MSRP, up from 2.1% of MSRP a year ago, according to J.D. Power estimates. Here are the major legacy automakers in the US, sales in Q3 for those automakers that report quarterly sales, or for September for those automakers that do not report quarterly sales, compared to the same period a year ago:

• General Motors, Q3: +21%
• Ford Motor Company, Q3: +8%
• Toyota Motor North America, September: +14%
• FCA (subsidiary of Stellantis), Q3: -1%
• American Honda, Q3: +53%
• Hyundai, Q3: +9%
• Kia, September: +20%.

Tesla doesn’t report US sales, only global sales, and its global sales surged by 27% year-over-year in Q3. This 20.6% sales increase year-over-year is a big boost for the economy, and it’s practically impossible to have a recession with this kind of increase in a high-volume big-ticket product and associated services that weigh so heavily all around the US economy.New vehicle sales have been defying gravity, so to speak, fueled by pent-up demand that accumulated during the two years of shortages when neither consumers nor fleet customers, such as rental fleets, could buy the new vehicles they wanted to buy.Now the industry is recovering from the inventory shortages in 2021 and 2022 that caused sales to plunge by 20% to 25% from their respective quarters before the pandemic.

Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased 1.0% in September; Down 3.9% Year-over-year - From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Minimal Increase in August Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 1.0% in September from August. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 214.3, down 3.9% from a year ago. “September auction sales bolstered prices through the channel,” said Chris Frey, senior manager of Economic and Industry Insights for Cox Automotive. “While there was a bit of an acceleration from August, we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves heading into the late fall and winter period. We are at a crossroads for wholesale, mainly from concerns about the UAW strike’s potentially slowing new retail sales and moving buyers into the used market. We don’t see that happening just yet, as it always takes time for changes to work through the market. Two very different outcomes are possible. One is to see higher prices from an extended strike on new production also showing up at wholesale and then used retail. The second leads to very little change – a strike resolution leading to price declines at relatively normal rates, or simply pausing, thus the wholesale and used retail markets are minimally affected. While we have some modest changes built into our MUVVI forecast, we think the market mainly reflects balance at this point, relative to what we have been seeing for much of the last three years. We typically see only slight upward trends in wholesale values in the fourth quarter, which is why are forecasting our Used Vehicle Value Index to finish down 2.2% for the year.” The seasonal adjustment contributed to September’s increase. The non-adjusted price in September increased by 0.1% compared to August, moving the unadjusted average price down 5.4% year over year. This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions. The Manheim index suggests used car prices increased in September (seasonally adjusted) and were down 3.9% year-over-year (YoY).

ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 49.0% in September -- The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.0% in September, up from 47.6% in August. The employment index was at 51.2%, up from 48.5% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 49.2%, up from 46.8%.
From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49% September 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® “The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent in September, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 47.6 percent recorded in August. The overall economy expanded weakly after nine months of contraction following a 30-month period of expansion. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 49.2 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the figure of 46.8 percent recorded in August. The Production Index reading of 52.5 percent is a 2.5-percentage point increase compared to August’s figure of 50 percent. The Prices Index registered 43.8 percent, down 4.6 percentage points compared to the reading of 48.4 percent in August. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 42.4 percent, 1.7 percentage points lower than the August reading of 44.1 percent. The Employment Index registered 51.2 percent, up 2.7 percentage points from the 48.5 percent reported in August.This suggests manufacturing contracted in September. This was above the consensus forecast. Note that the price index was at 43.8% (falling prices).

ISM® Services Index Decreases to 53.6% in September - The ISM® Services index was at 53.6%, down from 54.5% last month. The employment index decreased to 53.4%, from 54.7%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 53.6%; September 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded in September for the ninth consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 53.6 percent, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The sector has grown in 39 of the last 40 months, with the lone contraction in December 2022. “In September, the Services PMI® registered 53.6 percent, 0.9 percentage point lower than August’s reading of 54.5 percent. The composite index indicated growth in September for the ninth consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since June 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 58.8 percent, a 1.5-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 57.3 percent in August. The New Orders Index expanded in September for the ninth consecutive month after contracting in December for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 51.8 percent is 5.7 percentage points lower than the August reading of 57.5 percent. The PMI was at expectations.

BLS: Job Openings Increased to 9.6 million in August From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings increased to 9.6 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.9 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) changed little. The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000.Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for August; the employment report this Friday will be for September.Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.Jobs openings increased in August to 9.61 million from 8.92 million in July. The number of job openings (black) were down 6% year-over-year. Quits were down 14% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

ADP: Private Employment Increased 89,000 in September -- From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 89,000 Jobs in September; Annual Pay was Up 5.9% Private sector employment increased by 89,000 jobs in September and annual pay was up 5.9 percent year-over-year, according to the September ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”). “We are seeing a steepening decline in jobs this month,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist ADP. “Additionally, we are seeing a steady decline in wages in the past 12 months.” This was below the consensus forecast of 150,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 150 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in September.

September Employment Report: 336 thousand Jobs, 3.8% Unemployment Rate -From the BLS:Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality; government; health care; professional, scientific, and technical services; and social assistance. ... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 79,000, from +157,000 to +236,000, and the change for August was revised up by 40,000, from +187,000 to +227,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 119,000 higher than previously reported. The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.Total payrolls increased by 336 thousand in September. Private payrolls increased by 263 thousand, and public payrolls increased 73 thousand. Payrolls for July and August were revised up 119 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In September, the year-over-year change was 3.19 million jobs. Employment was up significantly year-over-year but has slowed to more normal levels of job growth recently. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 62.8% in September, from 62.8% in August. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 60.4% from 60.4% (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8% in September from 3.8% in August. This was well above consensus expectations; and, July and August payrolls were revised up by 119,000 combined.

An excellent headline jobs number may mask unresolved seasonality, while unemployment weakness “stuck” at a higher level - As per my reporting earlier this week, my focus this month was on whether wage and jobs growth continue to decelerate, and whether the unemployment rate would remain “sticky” at its higher, 3.8%, rate. Two of those three came to pass. The third, jobs growth, emphatically did not! But it may well have been the result of the same unresolved seasonality that we have seen with initial jobless claims in the past month. Here’s my in depth synopsis.

• 336,000 jobs added. This is the highest since January.
• July and August were both revised higher, by +79,000 and +40,000, respectively. This is the first time we have seen such upward revisions all this year. As a result, the 3 month moving average rose to 266,000 from a revised 193,000, the highest since March.
• Private sector jobs increased 263,000. Government jobs increased by 73,000. Only January and July were higher in the past 12 months.
• On the other hand, the alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report rose by only 86,000 jobs. The YoY% gain in this report is +1.7%.
• The U3 unemployment rate remained at 3.8%, tied with last month for the highest since February 2022 . The civilian labor force, the denominator in the figure, rose only slightly (by 90,000), and the numerator, the number of unemployed, rose very slightly (by 5,000).
• The U6 underemployment rate declined -0.1% to 7.0%, but still close to the highest since May 2022.
• Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now rose 80,000 to 5.450 million, vs. its post-pandemic low of 4.925 million set this past March.
• the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, was unchanged at 40.7, equal to its lows earlier this year and down -0.8 hours from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours.
• Manufacturing jobs rose by 17,000.
• Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs rose 8,900.
• Construction jobs increased by 11,000.
• Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 6,700. There has been a sharp rebound in the past two months, but so far It continues to appear likely that January was the peak for this sector.
• Goods jobs as a whole rose 29,000. These should decline before any recession occurs. They remain up 1.6% YoY, which remains a very good pace compared with most of the last 40 years.
• Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining late last year, declined further, by -4,200, and are down -233,600 since their peak in March 2022.
• the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less declined -170,000 to 2,051,000.
• Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.06, or +0.2%, to $29.06, a YoY gain of +4.3%. This is the lowest since June 2021.
• the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers increased 0.2%, and is up 1.2% YoY, a slight uptick from July’s recent low of 1.1%, which was the lowest since March 2021.
• the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose 0.4%, and increased 5.7% YoY, a -0.1% decline from last month, and the lowest since March 2021. Nevertheless this is significantly above the inflation rate, meaning average working class families have more buying power.
• Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, rose 96,000, -184,000, or -1.1% below their pre-pandemic peak.
• Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments rose 6100, and for the first time ever exceeded their pre-pandemic peak, by almost 30,000.
• Professional and business employment rose 21,000. These tend to be well-paying jobs, But this series has been decelerating, and is currently up 1.2% YoY, its lowest YoY gain since March 2021.
• The employment population ratio was unchanged at 60.4%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate was also unchanged at 62.8%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.

SUMMARY: As is so often the case, this month was a tale of two very divergent reports. The establishment report was excellent, both in headline jobs and in most of its internals, including almost all the leading jobs sectors. Food and drink establishments finally exceeded their pre-pandemic levels. Although it showed continued slow deceleration in terms of aggregate hours and pay growth, at +0.4% this month the latter almost certainly exceeded the inflation rate, meaning average Americans got more spending money in their pockets last month. If there was a fly in the ointment, it was that government jobs accounted for an outsized percentage of all the growth. This may well be of a piece with the big declines in initial jobless claims all last month, which I suspect had to do with a change in the post- vs. pre-pandemic patterns.On the other hand, the household report was lackluster, with a meager 86,000 jobs gain. Both the unemployment and underemployment rates “stuck” close to or at their highs from last month.So: there was continued deceleration in wage gains, and higher un- and under-employment rates “stuck,” But the monthly gain in jobs was very good. I should point out, however, that Q4 job growth last year deviated seasonally to the downside compared with pre-pandemic trends. I suspect we may see some of the same this year as well.

A Jobs Report You’d Expect from an Economy Plugging along Just Fine (What a Bummer?). Thing about Multiple Jobholders by Wolf Richter -As you’d expect from an economy that is plugging along just fine, the number of jobs created in the prior two months was revised up by 198,000, for a change, after a long series of downward revisions. And in September 336,000 jobs were created, per the survey of employers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today.It beat some economists’ expectations, and stock futures tanked instantly when AI-powered trading bots saw the headline and the upward revisions because Wall Street wants a big fat recession that would “force” the Fed to cut rates and end this horrible record QT and start QE all over again in their dreams because QE is now the only thing that works for stocks.And over the past three months, 799,000 jobs were created, including the upward revisions for July and August, and that was fine.Growth in overall employment, which includes the self-employed, per the separate survey of households, was fine too, rising by 576,000 over the past three months. The labor force continued to rise, and that was fine. The number of unemployed rose a tad but remained near historic lows. The prime-age labor participation rate – people between 24 and 54 – remained at the two-decade high, and that was fine. And the narrowest measure of the unemployment rate was unchanged near historic lows, and that was fine, etc., etc. Folks can quibble with some of the details, but overall it was fine – it has been fine every month all year, exactly what you’d expect from an economy that’s just plugging right along. So one of those details, the multiple jobholders. They always come up in some gruesome way, like Americans are so poor that they have to hold down two to four jobs to even be able to live from paycheck-to-paycheck or whatever, and that these multiple job holders inflate the employment numbers, etc., etc., though for lots of people, a side-gig is a great thing – working from homers have become infamous for it. The number of multiple jobholders rose in September to 8.15 million.But the total number of workers has grown over the months, years, and decades. For example, over the past four decades, the number of workers has grown by about 40 million, along with the total population.And so the number of multiple job holders as a percent of total jobholders was 5.0% in September and has been around 5.0% all year, in the middle of the range before the pandemic. In September 2019, before the pandemic, it was 5.3%. Those rates are historically relatively low. In the 1990s it was over 6%, and has trended lower since then. The chart shows the three-month-moving average, which was also 5.0% for September:So that didn’t inflate the job numbers, what a bummer. And it’s right within the range with the Good Times before the pandemic, and it’s historically low. In March through June 2020, the number of multiple jobholders had collapsed, as had total employment, but since then, it recovered and is now back to pre-pandemic levels, and there is really nothing to get excited about, except maybe that people who want a side gig have a better chance of finding one in this tight labor market.

Comments on September Employment Report – Bill McBride - The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio were both unchanged, and the unemployment rate was also unchanged at 3.8%. Leisure and hospitality gained 96 thousand jobs in September. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 184 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 98% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Construction employment increased 11 thousand and is now 406 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing employment increased 17 thousand jobs and is now 226 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.Earlier: September Employment Report: 336 thousand Jobs, 3.8% Unemployment Rate. In September, the year-over-year employment change was 3.09 million jobs. 2023, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 33 consecutive months, putting the current streak in a tie for 5th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).The UAW strike will likely impact the October and might contribute to a negative jobs report.Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 participation rate was unchanged in September at 83.5% from 83.5% in August, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio declined to 80.8% from 80.9% the previous month.Both are above the pre-pandemic levels. The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.2% YoY in September. On an annualized basis, wages increased 2.5% in September.The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.07 million from 4.22 million in August. This is below pre-recession levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.0% from 7.1% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is at the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.216 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.296 million the previous month. This is close to the pre-pandemic levels. Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was well above consensus expectations; and July and August payrolls were revised up by 119,000 combined. The unemployment rate was unchanged. This was a very strong report.

Does working from home damage productivity? Just look at the data. - I’ve been asked about productivity and working from home more times than I’ve had hot dinners. So it’s time to review all the evidence and serve up one big answer to the question: Does working from home work? In a nutshell, that answer is “yes.” But it’s important to understand why. And this is where the data come in. The numbers paint a picture of small, positive productivity gains for hybrid work. The savings in commuting time more than offset the losses in connectivity from fewer office days. In contrast, the impact of fully remote working on productivity is typically mildly negative. Fully remote workers can struggle with mentoring, innovation and culture building. However, it appears this can be reversed with good management. Running remote teams is hard but done well can deliver strong performance. But this is about more than just worker output. Firms care about profits — not productivity. Working from home massively reduces overhead. It drives down recruitment and retention costs, as employees value working from home. Fully remote companies also slash office costs, and cut wages bills by enabling national or global hiring. Indeed, the widespread adoption of working from home has been a triumph of capitalism. Higher profits have led millions of firms to adopt this, generating the five-fold increase in home working many of us now enjoy. Looking at micro economic studies on working from home productivity, the classic is “The Stanford Study” I helped oversee in 2010-2012. We randomized 250 employees in a large multinational firm into those who would work from home and those who would report to the office. The expectation, of course, was that home-based employees would goof-off, sleeping or watching TV rather than working. So, we were shocked to find a massive 13 percent increase in productivity. The productivity boost came from two sources. First, remote employees worked 9 percent more in minutes per day. They were rarely late to work, spent less time gossiping and chatting with colleagues, and took shorter lunch breaks and fewer sick days. Remote employees also had 4 percent more output per minute. They told us it’s quieter at home. The office was so noisy many of them struggled to concentrate. Other pre-pandemic studies found similar results. For example, Raj Choudhary found US Patent officers gained 4 percent productivity from greater remote flexibility. More recently, a spate of studies has studied the impact of firms moving to fully remote during the pandemic. Papers by Natalia Emanuel and Emma Harrington and by Michael Gibbs and co-authors find large and negative impacts on productivity. Most recently David Atkin and co-authors randomized data entry workers between office and home locations, finding a striking 18 percent drop to productivity from home working. These recent studies highlight major productivity costs from remote working. But they also reflect the importance of good management. Firms that adopted home working at speed in the pandemic often lacked planning, organization and control processes. Remote teams were led by office-based and office-trained managers who provided little support or structure. Remote work is different from office work, and needs managers, software and hardware that can support it. Now for the macro data…

As its workers strike over burnout and low wages, Kaiser Permanente strikes a deal to use an AI Copilot from Nabla --Yesterday, 75,000 workers at healthcare giant Kaiser Permanente embarked on a three-day strike to protest understaffing, burnout and low wages — setting a record for the biggest healthcare strike to date in U.S. history. But timing is everything in medicine. While Kaiser works through terms with union reps its physician division, has inked a deal with Nabla, the AI healthcare startup from Paris, to provide an AI assistant to doctors and other clinicians in its network. The aim is to reduce the amount of time they spend on admin: the AI will help with writing up notes and doing other administrative work, based on conversations that it listens to and transcribes.Nabla’s Copilot product, which was launched in March of this year, will be rolled out to physicians in the Permanente Medical Group, a part of Kaiser Permanente that covers more than 9,500 physician staff and more than 44,000 non-physician staff. It is being rolled out in Northern California initially. The service will be available to all physicians and clinicians, but using it will be optional. If the service proves to work well, the idea will be potentially to roll it out across the rest of Kaiser Permanente’s footprint in the U.S.From what we understand, Nabla and Permanente first ran a two-week pilot of the service in August of this year. The process of turning that into a commercial deal might have normally taken much longer, so it’s worth wondering if the current labor actions had a role to play in speeding that up.But to be clear, neither Nabla nor Kaiser Permanente are working on tools to take over the clinical work the doctors and others are doing.That’s not to say that others are not. Corti, another AI healthcare startup, raised $60 million in funding recently to continue building out its technology: another assistant for clinicians, but one where the aim is to help them with their patient assessments. Corti has some impressive deals in place already, too, and it says that it’s already working with more than 100 million patients/year. AI is not figuring prominently, or even at all, in the current labor action at Kaiser, but there are other industries where it has become a major point of contention. In the world of entertainment, anticipating the growing use of AI to recreate human likeness and voices, the SAG-AFTRA actors union is striking right now over the issue, specifically how AI will impact how they work and how they are compensated.

Ohio Senate Republicans throw online temper tantrum over being held accountable by media - Ohio Capital Journal - Finally. News you can trust. From politicians with a grudge. Ohio Senate Republicans made a foray into counter-media programming with a new website called “On the Record” featuring partisan content and podcasts that they assert “will deliver the real story directly to the people.” It’s the gospel according to Ohio Sen. President Matt Huffman preaching what the mainstream media (and pesky sticklers for accuracy) will not. This could change everything. State GOP senators, and their always forthright leader, (credible messengers all) vow to save us from the clutches of “fake news” and “woke fact checks.” They promise to deliver the unvarnished truth — as only Republican extremists can — about the “deep state media” that has “gone to war against conservatives” with a “rabidly partisan” agenda. From safe seats in uncompetitive state senate districts, Team Huffman will expose the “big lie” of gerrymandering and dispatch with the “easily debunked” accusation “that the GOP supermajority in Ohio is a result of gerrymandering” (due to hopelessly lopsided redistricting maps drawn by the GOP supermajority). “There is clear evidence (nowhere) that the redistricting committee did not gerrymander the maps used in 2022,” declared a website post.Certainly blockbuster news to the 2022 Ohio Supreme Court which struck down Republican gerrymandered maps five times. But leave it to the GOP supermajority, ensconced in the Ohio Senate via a rigged election they couldn’t lose, to put the record straight. “Gerrymandering played no role” in the 2022 elections that expanded the GOP supermajority in the General Assembly, read the post the on the Republican state senate site. Presumably that means the latest installment of Republican-crafted maps, that give Republicans an advantage over the (unconstitutional) plans used last year, will also play no role in the partisan-skewed districts in the 2024 elections. What state Republican senators and staff are posting on their “own online newsroom” (aka Huffman’s spin room) are alternative facts that bear little relation to life on Earth-1. It’s political posturing that purports to tell it like it is — unimpeded by “woke” Ohio journalists who might interject to question rhetoric detached from reality. That’s deliberate. Ohio GOP senators don’t want to get caught conning constituents with verifiable deception. So they bypass the media, described as “the enemy” by the senate GOP press secretary. They spew propaganda without objective check or challenge and call it a public service. Truth is what they say it is. Framed through a partisan filter. On the billion-dollar giveaway of tax money (universal vouchers) to fund private and parochial education, they say diverting public dollars from public schools to pay tuition at religious schools actually “saves taxpayers money.” Who knew? They also insist public schools “have plenty of money and are only looking to protect the deep state bureaucracy that protected them from accountability for decades.” Their “truth.”On fossil fuel fracking, they say it makes for “a greener Ohio” with an “exceptionally clean” extraction process that “increases environmental quality” (despite leaking methane, a greenhouse gas more potent than carbon dioxide, poisoning groundwater, and posing serious health risks). The claim won’t fly in the real world of documented research but will among Ohio Senate Republicans currying favor with the oil and gas industry.On their insane response to school shootings — to arm more teachers and staff with less firearm training — they say guns make schools safer. They also say opponents who decry the absurdity of arming educators (instead of passing meaningful gun control legislation to curb rampant gun violence) don’t “think kids are worth protecting with guns.” On higher education, state senate Republicans say their sweeping attempt to tamp down on the supposed threat of campus “wokeness” (by slamming the door on diversity, free thought, and collective bargaining) is a course correction to end “discrimination against conservatives in academia” who “are treated unequally and can face punishing censorship” (based on culture war conjecture about a “uniformly leftist agenda” in higher ed).On “The President’s Podcast,” Huffman and his communications chief complain about “private [media] publications” in the state who have the audacity to exercise editorial judgement and not accept all submissions from Huffman’s extreme caucus members (whose specious rants were apparently declined as misleading political messaging without merit). For conspiring to sabotage a citizens initiative on the constitutional right to abortion to keep a majority of Ohioans from having their say on the issue. For seizing control of an elected Ohio Board of Education and giving it to an unelected political appointee in a flagrant power grab to remove education policy from the people. I could go on. But you know the real story. Huffman’s self-serving podcast showcases a disingenuous political schemer. His online spin room is replete with diatribes of whiny wingnuts whose submitted invectives were rejected by “woke” editorial gatekeepers as irrational nonsense. This is not news you can trust. It’s political PR from crybaby demagogues you can take with a big grain of salt.

California law limiting medical exemptions from kindergarten vaccines offset by COVID, alternative schooling -From 2019 to 2021 in California, the proportion of kindergarteners with medical exemptions from school vaccination mandates fell, but the percentage not current with vaccinations rose, probably due to COVID-19–related disruptions and parents opting for homeschooling or other modalities not subject to the requirements, University of North Carolina researchers report inJAMA.The team analyzed data from the California Department of Public Health's Kindergarten Immunization Assessment reports for the 2019-2020, 2020-2021, and 2022-2022 school years.The researchers noted that after California eliminated nonmedical exemptions from school-entry vaccination requirements in 2016, medical exemptions rose rapidly, raising questions about inappropriate use. California Senate Bills 276 and 714 (collectively, SB276) became law in January 2021, increasing the state's oversight of medical exemptions.The proportion of California kindergarteners not up to date with required vaccinations increased from 5.71% (31,669 children) in 2019 to 7.15% (34,723) in 2020, then decreased to 6.01% (30,290) in 2021. The percentage of medically exempted kindergarteners fell from 0.95% in 2019 to 0.27% in 2021.The proportion of kindergarteners overdue for vaccination climbed from 1.48% in 2019 to 2.27% in 2021, as did that of children not subject to vaccine requirements (1.62% to 2.13%). Increases in kindergarteners not up to date rose over 0.5% in 26 of 58 counties, and 8 counties saw an increase of over 2%, namely in Northern California. But the percentage of those not up to date decreased by over 0.5% in 13 counties.Medical exemptions to vaccination declined at least 0.5% in 19 counties and climbed at least 0.5% in 4, while 13 counties experienced an increase of 0.5% or greater in children not subject to vaccination requirements, and 2 saw a decline of 0.5% or greater."The increase in kindergarteners not subject to vaccination requirements after SB276 nearly offset the decrease in medical exemptions," the authors wrote. "Enhanced monitoring and assessment may be necessary to ensure children who fell behind on vaccinations during the pandemic receive them before school entry," they added.

Rising cyberattacks on schools put students at risk -Cyberattacks on schools put students in a dangerous position as many struggle to understand the specific risks after an attack. Education has become the fifth most targeted industry for data breaches, according to a recent report from Nord Security, with U.S. schools experiencing a sharp increase in hacks in recent years. American children typically lack the financial data often sought in a cyber strike, but experts warn about the potential for long-term identity theft and emotional distress these events can leave behind, in addition to interfering with directly with classes. “No matter how you conceive of the issue, these incidents are getting more significant, more severe,” said Doug Levin, national director for K-12 Security Information eXchange (K12 SIX). “You could measure that in terms of the amount of money responding to these incidents costs, [or] it could be in the amount of data or sensitivity of the data that is being stolen and leaked.” The Government Accountability Office (GAO) said the “scale and number of attacks” particularly soared during the COVID-19 pandemic, when most schools had to go to remote learning. The most common types of cyber strikes against educational institutions include ransomware, phishing, distributed denial of service attacks and video conferencing disruptions. K12 SIX found 1,619 cyberattacks on schools from 2016-22. The two biggest from last year targeted the public school districts in New York City and Los Angeles. “Unfortunately, as expected, data was recently released by a criminal organization,” Alberto M. Carvalho, superintendent of Los Angeles Unified School District, said at the time. “In partnership with law enforcement, our experts are analyzing the full extent of this data release.” Some of the consequences for schools during a data breach are obvious, including hackers getting access to bank and other financial information of employees. But students and parents face their own unique challenges in the aftermath, including sometimes missing school days as criminals hold systems hostage. “Ransomware is the type of incident that has led to school closures,” Levin said, adding that such incidents have resulted in “school districts out millions of dollars, sometimes paying extortion demands of ransomware actors, other times spending that money just in remediating what it allowed to be compromised in the first place.” The GAO found school districts can lose anywhere from $50,000 to $1 million after a breach. The attacks have led to “days that schools have had to shut down and not be able to provide services or had other disruptions to the day-to-day work of schools and teachers and kids,” Levin said. And while many students have little financial information in the school system, their profiles can be surprisingly attractive to criminals. “We basically have an environment in which we have hundreds of thousands of minors who have clean credit reports, so identity theft is a very real concern,” said Linnette Attai, president of PlayWell LLC, a data privacy consulting firm.

America’s Bad Math Scores Are a Problem, Experts Say -- At a time when Americans joke about how bad they are at math, and already abysmal scores on standardized math tests are falling even further, employers and others say the nation needs people who are good at math in the same way motion picture mortals need superheroes.They say America’s poor math performance isn’t funny anymore. It’s a threat to the nation’s global economic competitiveness and national security.“The advances in technology that are going to drive where the world goes in the next 50 years are going to come from other countries, because they have the intellectual capital and we don’t,” said Jim Stigler, a psychology professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, who studies the process of teaching and learning subjects including math.There’s already ample and dramatic evidence of this.Several largely overlooked reports, including from the Department of Defense, raise alarms about how Americans’ disdain for math is a threat to national security.One, issued in July by the think tank The Aspen Institute, warns that international adversaries are challenging America’s longtime technological dominance. “We are no longer keeping pace with other countries, particularly China,” it says, calling this a “dangerous” failure and urging decisionmakers to make education a national security priority.“There are major national and international challenges that will require better math skills,” said Josh Wyner, vice president of The Aspen Institute and founder and executive director of its College Excellence Program.“This is not an educational question alone,” said Wyner. “It’s about knowledge development, environmental protection, better cures for diseases. Resolving the fundamental challenges facing our time require math.”The Defense Department, in a separate study, calls for an initiative akin to the 1958 Eisenhower National Defense Act to support education in science, technology, engineering, and math, or STEM. It reports that there are now eight times as many college graduates in these disciplines in China and four times as many engineers in Russia than in the United States. China has also surpassed the United States in the number of doctoral degrees in engineering, according to the National Science Foundation.Meanwhile, the number of jobs in math occupations — which “use arithmetic and apply advanced techniques to make calculations, analyze data, and solve problems” — will have increased by 29 percent in the 10 years ending in 2031, or by more than 30,000 per year, Bureau of Labor Statistics figures show. That’s much faster than most other kinds of jobs.

Court clears way for Michigan school shooter’s parents to stand trial -The Michigan Supreme Court denied an appeal on Tuesday from the parents of a teenager who shot and killed four students at a high school in the state, clearing the way for the two to stand trial on involuntary manslaughter charges. James and Jennifer Crumbley, the parents of Ethan Crumbley, are accused of making a gun accessible to their son and ignoring his mental health needs. In a one-sentence order, the state Supreme Court upheld an appeals court decision in March ruling that the couple could face trial. Prosecutors have alleged that his parents allowed him to access the gun and taught him how to shoot. Crumbley, who was 15 at the time of the Oxford High School shooting in 2021, pleaded guilty to 24 charges — including terrorism and first-degree murder — last year. He shot and killed students Madisyn Baldwin, Tate Myre, Hana St. Juliana and Justin Shilling at, and left six students and a teacher wounded. The day before the shooting, he was also allegedly looking at pictures of ammunition, according to a teacher. The day of the shooting, his parents and their son met with school staff on the issue, but no one checked his backpack for a gun. His parents have remained in custody since shortly after the shooting on a $500,000 bond. Their lawyers have argued that the shooting was not foreseeable — and their alleged actions do not amount to involuntary manslaughter, which could carry up to 15 years in prison. A judge last week also ruled the defendant is eligible for life in prison without parole. He is expected to be sentenced Dec. 8 in Oakland County, Mich.

What Does It Mean to Protect Children? – The Campbell County Public Library is a handsome, low-slung building in the center of the small city of Gillette, Wyoming. Out front is a statue: a pigtailed little girl with a joyful expression, sitting atop a globe perched on a stack of books. Inside, a graying crowd of about 50 people filed into a roomy event space for the monthly library board meeting. Together we set up folding chairs in rows with an aisle down the middle. Once the Pledge of Allegiance had been recited and God’s grace had been requested, the five board members seated at a curved table in the front of the room called the meeting to order. A woman with a gray-blond bob and a no-nonsense demeanor, whom I later learned was library board chair Sage Bear, addressed the room. “I propose that since there are some discrepancies on what a sex act is, we add some of this verbiage,” Bear said. She began reading from a paper in front of her. “It says the term ‘sex act’ or ‘sexual activity’ means any sexual contact between two or more persons, by any of the following: penetration of the penis into the vagina or anus, contact between the genitals or mouth and anus, contact of the genitalia of one and the genitalia or anus of another…” She went on for another minute or so, listing other potential scenarios one might encounter while reading books, until she got to “the touching of a person’s own genitalia or anus with finger hand or artificial sexual organ or similar device at the direction of another person.” Bear paused and looked up. “I think we should add that to our definition.” The other four members of the board nodded and took notes studiously as if Bear were talking about the mundane library meeting agenda items—the budget for computers, say, or a new coat of paint for the restroom—instead of the variety of specific sex acts that she considered too lewd for the young adult section. The monthly library board meetings haven’t always been so X-rated. Until two years ago, they were so tedious that hardly anyone besides the appointed board members bothered to show up, easily fitting in one of the library’s cozy study rooms. But all that changed in June 2021 when a fight over one of the library’s Facebook posts about its gay pride display led to a real-life shouting match during meetings, which, in turn, led to more shouting matches over a transgender magician who was scheduled to perform in the children’s room. Some residents were concerned that such library events were a covert effort to corrupt the youth. They’d heard about drag queen story hours in other parts of the country. Within a matter of months, so many people crammed into the study room, the board had to move the meetings into the library’s main event space. As attendance swelled, certain conventions emerged. The aisle separating the chairs turned out to be both practical and symbolic—the crowd divided itself along political lines. Those who accused the library of corrupting the youth sat to the right of the center aisle, and those who defended the collection were on the left. In April 2022, the battle in Gillette collided with a conservative uproar over the American Library Association, the professional organization that offers grants, support, and training to its 50,000 members, mostly librarians. That month, the group’s newly elected director, Emily Drabinski, tweeted, “I just cannot believe that a Marxist lesbian who believes that collective power is possible to build and can be wielded for a better world is the president-elect.” For conservative outlets her tweet provided proof of the organization’s political agenda. Breitbart called it a “Dewey decimal disaster.” The State Freedom Caucus Network, an arch-conservative alliance of state legislators, called for their state library organizations to break from the ALA. Texas, Missouri, and Montana have done so, though the move has been largely performative since individual libraries can still keep their affiliation. Montana lawmakers justified the move by claiming their state constitution “forbids association with an organization led by a Marxist.” But even as other states may have asserted displeasure with the organization, in October 2022, the Campbell County Public Library became the first in the nation to officially break ties with the American Library Association, accusing the organization of Marxist indoctrination of their children. On its surface, the fight in Gillette may appear to be over a few books at a small-town library, but really it’s about an issue with much higher stakes, and it’s preoccupying communities from Florida to Washington State: how best to protect kids in an increasingly volatile and rancorous world. Out of the tumult of the pandemic, America’s conservative parent groups like Florida-basedMoms for Liberty emerged to accuse schools of “indoctrinating” children with curriculum about systemic racism and queer identity. With the help of powerful conservative organizations, and substantial political influence, the “parents’ rights” movement remade school boards nationwide to align with their values. Moms for Liberty claims that more than half of the candidates they endorsed won their races. Part of the movement’s agenda is a crusade against books that they consider inappropriate—and in this, too, they’ve been successful. In a report last year, the reading advocacy group PEN America documented a record 2,500 book bans in the 2021–2022 school year.

Tens of thousands of educators threaten strikes across the US - Tens of thousands of teachers and school workers in districts from coast-to-coast are demanding strike action over the deepening assault on public education as funds are drained from social programs to pay for war. Districts everywhere are reeling amid the drying up of $190 billion in federal COVID-related funding, which expires next year. These cuts, combined with declining enrollment across districts, result in abruptly declining budgets, as state aid to districts is pegged to student numbers. The growth of social inequality has dramatically impacted K-12 enrollment. On the one hand, greater homelessness, food insecurity and poverty mean more school absences and the phenomenon of “disappearing” students. On the other hand, charter and private schools were able to exploit the crisis in public schools caused by the ruling elite’s refusal to enact the necessary measures to stop the pandemic, and these institutions have continued to increase their numbers among the upper-middle-class. The broadside against public education will only deepen as the US commits untold billions to the US-NATO war in Ukraine. In the ongoing federal budget crisis, the Republicans are calling for the virtual end of Title I funding, proposing to slash up to 80 percent of the program which aids more than half of all schoolchildren in the US. Title I, established in 1965 under the “War on Poverty,” provides services to 25 million students and assistance to 70 percent of US school districts–an indication of the widespread poverty in the US. The Democrats have already put forward their own plan to cut federal education funding and will undoubtedly agree to even further cuts in the interests of securing a deal for more money for war. In districts controlled by both Democrats and Republicans, teachers and school workers are already working under terrible pressures–wages falling further and further behind inflation, staff shortages requiring doubling-up on work of all kinds, poorly ventilated buildings conducive to the spread of COVID, RSV and other diseases, and all the effects of growing poverty. The mass disenrollment of Medicaid recipients following Biden’s ending of the COVID public health emergency puts as many as 7.3 million children at risk of losing health insurance, threatening both their well-being and school-based health programs. These attacks are leading directly to an explosion of struggles among educators. Across California, 10,000 academic workers within the California State University system, including Teaching Assistants, Student Assistants and Graduate Assistants, are entering into struggle following the expiration of their contract on September 30. Student workers–many of whom make minimum wage and depend upon local food pantries–are demanding an end to poverty wages, paid sick leave, and better working conditions. Ahead of the deadline, students held rallies across multiple campuses, while officials with the United Auto Workers are keeping them in the dark about contract demands and refusing to mobilize a joint struggle by the academic workers with the autoworkers who are currently on strike.

Nobel Prize winner for mRNA vaccines discusses being demoted by UPenn - Katalin Karikó, who is sharing the Nobel Prize in medicine for her work with mRNA vaccines, says she was previously demoted by the University of Pennsylvania for her research in that area. “If you know about 10 years ago, I was here in October because I was kicked out from UPenn, was forced to retire,” Karikó told the Nobel Prize organization in an interview Monday. Karikó and Drew Weissman both won the Nobel Prize in medicine for their work on mRNA vaccines, which have been used to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. But the work in the area has not been an easy road for Karikó, who had to fight her whole career to study mRNA vaccines. In 1995, UPenn even demoted her because she could not get the financial support to continue her research. The university is still celebrating her win Monday, with no mention of the demotion or her rocky history with the university. “The University of Pennsylvania messenger RNA pioneers whose years of scientific partnership unlocked an understanding of how to modify mRNA to make it an effective therapeutic—enabling a platform used to rapidly develop lifesaving vaccines amid the global COVID-19 pandemic—have been named winners of the 2023 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine,” UPenn said in a statement. Karikó left the university in 2013 to pursue an opportunity as the vice president at BioNTech RNA Pharmaceuticals, before later returning. “Day after day, Dr. Weissman, Dr. Karikó and their teams worked tirelessly to unlock the power of mRNA as a therapeutic platform, not knowing the way in which their work could serve to meet a big challenge the world would one day face,” UPenn President Liz Magill said. “With the truest devotion to their field, they’ve already promised they will not stop here, and that is the greatest inspiration of all. Our Penn community is enormously proud of their groundbreaking achievements and this well-deserved recognition.”

What Mobile Clinics in Dollar General Parking Lots Say About Health Care in Rural America - On a hot July morning, customers at the Dollar General along a two-lane highway northwest of Nashville didn’t seem to notice signs of the chain store’s foray into mobile health care, particularly in rural America. Each went right by a sign exclaiming “Quick, Easy Health Visits,” with an image of a mobile clinic.Just after 10 a.m., registered nurse Kimberly French arrived to work at the DocGo mobile clinic parked in the store’s lot. She checked her schedule.“We don’t have any appointments so far today, but that could change,” French said. “Last night we didn’t have any appointments and three or four people showed up all at one time.”Dollar General, the nation’s largest retailer by number of stores, with more than 19,000, partnered with New York-based mobile medical services company DocGo to test whether they could draw more customers and tackle persistent health inequities.Deploying mobile clinics to fill care gaps in underserved areas isn’t a new idea. But pairing them with Dollar General’s ubiquitous small-town presence has been heralded by investment analysts and some rural health experts as a way to ease the health care drought in rural America.Dollar General’s latest annual report notes that about 80% of the company’s stores are in towns with populations of fewer than 20,000 — precisely where medical professionals are scarce.Catering to those who want urgent or primary care, the mobile clinics take private insurance as well as Medicaid and Medicare. The company’s website says DocGo’s self-pay rates start at $69 for patients without insurance or who are out of network. DocGo officials said Tennessee patients may be charged different rates but declined to provide details. On the ground in Tennessee, primary care doctors and patients are skeptical. “Honestly, they don’t really grasp, I don’t think, what they’re getting into,” said Brent Staton, a family medicine doctor and the leader of the Cumberland Center for Healthcare Innovation, a statewide organization that helps small-town family care doctors coordinate care and negotiate with insurers, including Medicare.The Clarksville-area pilot, which launched last fall, is in a federally designatedprimary care shortage area for low-income residents.About 1,000 patients have been seen in the company’s clinics, either at Dollar General sites or community pop-up events, and some became repeat visitors, according to DocGo. Payment is taken outside on a mobile device and, once inside, patients meet with an on-site staff member, like French, and connect via telehealth on an iPad screen with a physician assistant or nurse practitioner

New report analyzes major drug companies' efforts to boost access to generic, biosimilar drugs -A new Access to Medicine Foundation analysis of five major pharmaceutical companies highlights their strategies to improve access to generic and biosimilar drugs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) but finds a lack of efforts to make medications more affordable. The inaugural report from the foundation's Generic & Biosimilar Medicines Programme looks at the efforts of Cipla, Hikma, Sun Pharma, Teva, and Viatris to identify gaps in reliable, affordable essential drugs in poor countries. "Although examples of access strategies could be identified, within these there was almost no evidence of strategies designed to boost affordability by taking ability-to-pay into account, especially for patients paying out of pocket," the Access to Medicine news release said. The companies were chosen based on their size, influence, and involvement in global health; 90% of the 102 off-patent essential drugs the foundation identifies as priorities for access in LMICs are in the portfolios of at least one of these companies. Access to Medicine said that of the drugs the World Health Organization (WHO) classified as essential, 90% have expired patents, meaning that drug makers are free to develop a generally lower-cost generic or biosimilar version, which may promote competition and boost supplies. These drugs are used to treat a wide variety of conditions such as cancer, heart disease, diabetes, tuberculosis, malaria, and HIV. "Some of these companies now also manufacture generic or biosimilar versions of patented products under voluntary licensing agreements, which can expand and accelerate access to innovative medicines worldwide," the release said. "However, generic and biosimilar products are still out of reach for many patients in LMICs, especially those living in low-income countries and those from vulnerable populations," who may still not be able to afford them.

AstraZeneca to pay $425 million to settle lawsuits over heartburn drugs - AstraZeneca will pay $425 million to settle lawsuits on behalf of consumers who suffered kidney injuries while using its heartburn medications Nexium and Prilosec. AstraZeneca in a statement said the specific terms are confidential, but the agreements effectively resolve the product liability claims that are currently pending. A single case remains pending in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Louisiana. The company said the claims “are without merit” and admitted no wrongdoing in the settlement agreement. “These settlements avoid continued costly litigation and allow the Company to move forward with its purpose of delivering life changing medicines to millions of patients around the world,” AstraZeneca said. The plaintiffs’ attorneys, Seeger Weiss LLP and Douglas & London P.C., said the settlement will resolve litigation against AstraZeneca for about 11,000 claims. The lawsuits alleged the medications can cause kidney injuries that may develop into chronic kidney disease and eventually end-stage renal disease. Plaintiffs also alleged that companies failed to adequately research and concealed the risks of taking such proton-pump inhibitor (PPI) medications. But the plaintiffs have not reached a settlement with Takeda Pharmaceuticals, the maker of PPI drugs Prevacid and Dexilant, and will continue to pursue claims against the company. AstraZeneca’s settlement is in addition to earlier settlements reached with GlaxoSmithKline, Procter & Gamble, and Pfizer totaling $108.5 million, attorneys said.

FDA greenlights Novavax's updated COVID vaccine - The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) today granted emergency use authorization for Novavax's updated COVID vaccine, paving the way for people to begin receiving it.When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention made its universal recommendation that people ages 6 months and up receive updated COVID vaccines, it included language that covered all approved COVID vaccines, meaning its advisory group won't have to meet again to recommend it, once the FDA approves the vaccine.Novavax is an adjuvanted protein-based vaccine made on a more traditional platform and is an option for those who are looking for an alternative to mRNA vaccines. The vaccine is indicated for use in peoples ages 12 years and older.The new version of the vaccine has been updated to include the spike protein from the XBB.1.5 Omicron variant.Peter Marks, MD, PhD, who directs the FDA's Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said COVID vaccines have saved countless lives, and he urged people to receive an updated vaccine that offers better protection against circulating variants. "Today's authorization provides an additional COVID-19 vaccine option that meets the FDA’s standards for safety, effectiveness and manufacturing quality needed to support emergency use authorization."Novavax has said that its vaccine will be available at thousands of locations, including local retail pharmacies CVS and Rite Aid and doctors' offices.

COVID booster uptake hindered by prior infections, fear of side effects - Only 20% of Americans eligible for COVID-19 boosters get them, and today in Vaccine, researchers published the results of a new survey of 2,000 US adults to understand why uptake is so low.Participants were part of the Arizona CoVHORT, a prospective trial that began in May 2020. All 2,196 participants had at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose and were asked about if they had received a bivalent (two-strain) COVID-19 booster. If respondents said they had not, they were asked why.Bivalent boosters were first recommended for all Americans ages 12 and up in September 2022, and the present survey was conducted from February 13 to March 29, 2023.Of the 2,196 respondents who had been vaccinated previously, 1,637 (74.5%) received. Among the 559 respondents who said they did not get a booster, 39.5% said they did not need one as they had already been infected by SARS-CoV-2 at least once, and 31.5% said they worried about side effects.The third most common reasons cited for not getting a booster, by 28.6% of participants, was respondents' disbelief that a booster would add more protection over the vaccines they have already had.Previous studies suggested that the main reasons people did not get a booster was because they were unaware they were eligible. The results of the Arizona CoVHORT show different mechanisms were at play in spring 2023, when boosters were widely available and recommended for all Americans 6 months and older."These findings suggest that knowledge about the bivalent booster may have improved over time, but that benefits of receiving the bivalent booster and concerns about side effects are two areas in which improvements in education are necessary,” the authors concluded. “Improving provider and patient knowledge around recent work demonstrating the efficacy of bivalent boosters against severe outcomes, including hospitalizations, for up to 120 days following receipt, may help improve vaccination rates.”

Infant immune systems found to have unique and effective responses to SARS-CoV-2 -- Research led by the University of Tübingen, Germany, along with partners at Stanford University, Emory University and the Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, U.S., has looked into infant immune responses following SARS-CoV-2 infections during the initial months of life. In a paper titled, "Multi-omics analysis of mucosal and systemic immunity to SARS-CoV-2 after birth," published in Cell, the research team finds that infants and youngchildren mount durable antibody responses for up to 300 days.There has been a lack of comprehensive, system-wide, longitudinal analysis of how infants and young children respond to SARS-CoV-2 infection regarding their immune systems' development, antibody responses, and innate immune activation. Researchers collected data on children, adults and mothers to get a comparative picture of infant immune reactions.Blood and nasal swab samples were obtained from infants and young children in the IMPRINT cohort at the Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center. Children were tested weekly for SARS-CoV-2, and the cohort included 54 infected infants and young children, including 27 infants with paired pre-infection samples. An additional 27 matched control infants and young children represented healthy controls who consistently tested negative from birth to sampling.In addition to the pediatric cohort, 62 blood samples were obtained from 48 adult COVID-19 patients and ten healthy control samples, collected from the Hope Clinic at Emory University in Atlanta and the Stanford University Medical Center. Blood samples were also obtained from 41 mothers with mild COVID-19, including three with paired pre-infection samples and three matched controls.In contrast to adults, infants and young children displayed robust and durable antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2. These antibody titers remained high for up to 300 days, whereas antibody responses tend to decay more rapidly in adults.In the blood, there was an upregulation of activation markers on innate cells in the children but no significant increase in inflammatory cytokines. Memory B and T cell responses in infants were significantly lower than in adults. However, they showed increases in multifunctional T helper 17 and 1-type CD4⁺ T cells characterized by the production of interleukin-2, interferon-gamma, and tumor necrosis factor-alpha, making them triple-positive.Infants mounted a robust mucosal immune response characterized by inflammatory cytokines, interferon α, and markers associated with T helper 17 and neutrophil responses. This mucosal response was particularly pronounced in the nasal mucosa.While multifunctional CD4 T cell responses were reduced by roughly two orders of magnitude in the infants, observations of persistent antibody responses lasted much longer. The study's findings raise the possibility of designing vaccine formulations to take advantage of these innate immune system activation pathways to avoid causing the collateral immunopathology often associated with unwanted inflammation.

Post-vaccine vaginal bleeding rates associated with all COVID-19 vaccine types across reproductive ages --Research by the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Norway, suggests that COVID-19 vaccines or the body's response to them can lead to unexpected vaginal bleeding in women. This phenomenon was observed in women across different reproductive stages.In a paper, "Unexpected vaginal bleeding and COVID-19 vaccination in nonmenstruating women," published in Science Advances, the team of public health researchers detail their findings that raise the possibility that the spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which is targeted by the vaccines, might be involved in this phenomenon. The study investigated the association between COVID-19 vaccination and unexpected vaginal bleeding in non-menstruating postmenopausal, perimenopausal, and premenopausal women. The study included approximately 22,000 participants, aged 32 to 64, from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) and the Senior cohort, ages 65 to 80.Unexpected vaginal bleeding was reported in 3.3% of postmenopausal women, 14.1% of perimenopausal women, and 13.1% of premenopausal women, more than three times the expected rates. Around half of the women who reported unexpected vaginal bleeding experienced it within 28 days after a COVID-19 vaccination.The study suggests that the vaccine type may influence the risk of vaginal bleeding. The Spikevax (Moderna) vaccine, which contains a higher mRNA dose, was associated with a higher risk of vaginal bleeding than Comirnaty (PFIZER), particularly in premenopausal women.Despite the physiological changes associated with hormonal intrauterine devices (IUDs) in premenopausal women, there were no apparent differences in the relative risk of bleeding across hormone use in the IUD group, which accounted for 74% of non-menstruating premenopausal women in the study.The lack of differentiation between prolonged hormonal contraceptives, age and menopausal-related hormonal differences suggests that the mechanism is not through disruptions of the hypothalamic-pituitary-ovarian axis. In a population data study, biological mechanisms cannot be directly interrogated, but the observations provide the insights needed for effective follow-up investigations.

Study: Paxlovid cuts hospitalization, death only in at-risk COVID patients with weak immune systems --Today in JAMA Network Open, an observational Canadian studyties the antiviral drug combo nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (Paxlovid) to a lower risk of hospitalization or death only in very high-risk COVID-19 patients with weakened immune systems.University of British Columbia researchers in Vancouver analyzed rates of severe COVID-19 outcomes among 6,866 adult COVID-19 patients by their vulnerability to severe disease and immune system status from February 1, 2022, to February 3, 2023, a period dominated by the Omicron variant. The team classified the patients into one of four groups given early priority for COVID-19 vaccination.There were three clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) patient groups, including those with severely impaired immune systems (CEV1); those with moderately weakened immune systems (CEV2); and those with healthy immune systems but underlying high-risk conditions (CEV3). A fourth category included unvaccinated, non-CEV patients aged 70 years and older with other chronic conditions given wider access to Paxlovid (EXEL).Recipients of Paxlovid were matched to patients in the same vulnerability group. The median age was 70 years, and 56.6% were women.Relative to no treatment, Paxlovid therapy was linked to statistically significant reductions in hospitalization and all-cause death by 28 days in the CEV1 group (560 patients; risk difference [RD], -2.5%) and the CEV2 group (2,628; RD, -1.7%).Among CEV3 participants, the RD was -1.3%, but the results were not statistically significant (2,100 patients; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.8% to 0.1%). Paxlovid was associated with a higher risk of hospitalization or death in the EXEL group (RD, 1.0%), but the findings were also not significant (1,578; 95% CI, -0.9% to 2.9%)."In this study, treatment with nirmatrelvir and ritonavir was not associated with reduced risk of death or hospitalization among individuals who were not extremely vulnerable to complications from COVID-19 infection, regardless of age," the study authors wrote. "Stratified analysis of individuals according to vulnerability to complications from COVID-19 is crucial to understanding which individuals should use nirmatrelvir and ritonavir."

Heart attacks outside of hospitals increased, were deadlier during pandemic - Today in JAMA Network Open, a new study shows that the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) increased during the pandemic, and survival decreased. Rather than being directly linked to acute COVID-19 infections, the authors said the changes were linked to emergency medical services (EMS) use during the pandemic.The findings were based on OHCA among adults attended by EMS in Seattle and King County, Washington, from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021.During the study period, there were 13,081 EMS-attended patients with OHCA, 7,102 (54%) of whom were dead on arrival (DOA) and 5,979 (46%) of whom received attempted resuscitation. The average age was 64 years, and 64.6% were men."Of the 5,979 EMS-treated cases, 2,837 occurred during prepandemic years and 3,142 occurred during pandemic years, representing a 10.8% increase," the authors said. "We also observed a 27.2% increase in EMS-attended DOA patients, from 3,126 during prepandemic years to 3,976 during the pandemic period."Only 194 patients (6.2%) during the pandemic years were acutely infected with SARS-CoV-2.According to the authors, however, there were lower proportions of OHCA survival outcomes during the pandemic compared with the prepandemic period, including survival to hospital admission (1,122 patients [35.7%] vs 1,209 patients [42.6%]), survival to hospital discharge (483 patients [15.4%] vs 544 patients [19.2%]), and survival with favorable neurologic status (432 patients [13.7%] vs 489 patients [17.2%]). The unadjusted odds ratio of survival to hospital discharge during the pandemic period compared with the prepandemic period was 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 0.88). "The findings suggest that a substantial proportion of the increase in OHCA incidence and the decrease in OHCA survival was not due specifically to acute COVID-19, but rather indirect factors that more generally challenged OHCA prevention and treatment," the authors concluded.

Study suggests higher risk of new-onset post-COVID autoimmune, autoinflammatory disorders - Today in JAMA Network Open, South Korean researchers identify a significantly higher risk of multiple new-onset autoimmune and autoinflammatory connective-tissue disorders after COVID-19 infection, some associated with illness severity, but vaccination lowers the risk.For the retrospective study, researchers analyzed nationwide data from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency COVID-19 National Health Insurance Service on COVID-19 patients from October 2020 to December 2021. A control group was made up of uninfected people identified through the National Health Insurance Service of Korea.The average age of the 354,527 COVID-19 patients was 52.2 years, and 50.5% were women. Among the 6,134,940 controls, the average age was 52.1 years, and 50.1% were women. The average follow-up time for the COVID-19 and control groups were 120 and 121 days, respectively. "Possible associations of COVID-19 with autoimmune diseases… have been suggested, because SARS-CoV-2 appears to perturb self-tolerance and trigger autoimmune reactions via cross-reactivity that may lead to the development of autoimmune diseases," the study authors wrote.Relative to controls, COVID-19 patients had significantly higher risks of alopecia areata (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.12), alopecia totalis (aHR, 1.74), antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody–associated vasculitis (aHR, 2.76), Crohn disease (aHR, 1.68), and sarcoidosis (aHR, 1.59).The risks of alopecia totalis, psoriasis, vitiligo, vasculitis, Crohn disease, ulcerative colitis, rheumatoid arthritis, adult-onset Still disease, Sjogren syndrome, ankylosing spondylitis, and sarcoidosis were associated with increasing COVID-19 severity.In subgroup analyses, unvaccinated participants were at greater risk of autoimmune diseases such as alopecia areata, alopecia totalis, and Crohn disease, as well as for COVID-associated cardiovascular control outcomes. But in vaccinated participants, the increased risks were lower for both autoimmune and cardiovascular control outcomes. The risk of psoriasis was slightly higher in a COVID-19 subgroup made up of men and those who had severe COVID-19. "These findings suggest that autoimmune and autoinflammatory connective tissue disorders may manifest as post–COVID-19 sequelae, highlighting the potential long-term health ramifications associated with COVID-19," the researchers wrote.

Older adults made up 90% of US COVID deaths in 2023 -Two studies today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report highlight COVID-19 among older adults, with one finding that this age-group made up 63% of all COVID-related hospitalizations and nearly 90% of deaths in 2023 in the United States, and the other showing lower up-to-date vaccination among Black and multiracial nursing home residents and those in the South and Southeast. The COVID-19–Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) Surveillance Team estimated rates of COVID-related hospitalization, in-hospital death, and vaccination status among adults aged 65 and older in 98 counties in 13 states from January to August 2023. They also identified the demographic and clinical characteristics of hospitalized patients in this age-group from January to June 2023.From January to June, rates of COVID-19 hospitalizations among all adults decreased, including among older adults, but rates stayed elevated among older adults relative to younger ones and began rising in July. Hospitalization rates in COVID-19 patients aged 65 and older more than doubled over the study period, from 6.8 per 100,000 during the week ending July 15 to 16.4 per 100,000 during the week ending August 26. Roughly one in six older adults hospitalized for COVID-19 were nursing home residents.Adults aged 65 and older accounted for 62.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 60.1% to 65.7%) of COVID-19 hospitalizations, 61.3% (95% CI, 54.7% to 67.6%) of intensive care unit admissions, and 87.9% (95% CI, 80.5% to 93.2%) of in-hospital deaths. Most hospitalized patients had multiple chronic conditions (90.3%; 95% CI, 87.2% to 92.8%), and only 23.5% (95% CI, 19.5% to 27.7%) had received the recommended bivalent (two-strain) vaccine. A total of 16% had not received any COVID-19 vaccines."Adults with increased risk for COVID-19–associated hospitalization, including all adults aged ≥65 years, should reduce their risk for severe COVID-19 by receiving recommended COVID-19 vaccinations, adopting measures to reduce risk for contracting COVID-19, and seeking prompt outpatient antiviral treatment after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result," the study authors wrote.For the second study, researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) mined data from the National Healthcare Safety Network from 1,797 long-term care facilities (LTCs) to evaluate demographic differences in primary and up-to-date COVID-19 vaccination status among residents from October 2022 to May 2023.Up-to-date status was considered receipt of a bivalent COVID-19 vaccine dose or completion of a primary vaccine series less than 2 months earlier. Over 99% of LTCs in the study were nursing homes. "Long-term care (LTC) facility residents are vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 infection because of their often-advanced age, medical complexity, and congregate setting," the researchers wrote. Up-to-date status was substantially lower in nursing home residents in the South (Region 6 of the US Department of Health and Human Services; 37.7%) and Southeast (Region 4; 36.5%) than among those in the Pacific Northwest (Region 10; 53.3%) and Mountain West (Region 8; 59.6%) regions.

Research may explain why men are more likely to experience severe cases of COVID-19 --A new study by a team of researchers at the University of Toronto's Emerging and Pandemic Infections Consortium (EPIC) has uncovered biological reasons underlying sex differences in COVID-19 outcomes, offering a promising new strategy to prevent illness. The pre-clinical research, published in the journal iScience, has yet to be replicated in humans, but points to the ACE2 protein as a key contributor to differences in COVID-19 outcomes between males and females. During the early days of the pandemic, clinicians noticed that males were more likely than females to be hospitalized or admitted to the ICU or to die from COVID-19 despite having similar infection rates. This pattern held true across all age groups and in countries around the world. "COVID-19 severity and mortality are much higher in males than in females, but the reasons for this remain poorly understood," says study senior author Haibo Zhang, a staff scientist in the Keenan Research Centre for Biomedical Science at St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, and a professor of anesthesiology and pain medicine, and physiology in U of T's Temerty Faculty of Medicine. “That was the driving force for our work." The study was a collaborative effort through EPIC, a U of T institutional strategic initiative that involves five hospital research partners—the Hospital for Sick Children (SickKids) Research Institute, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute at Sinai Health, Sunnybrook Research Institute, Unity Health Toronto and the University Health Network (UHN)—to facilitate an integrated and innovative response to high-risk, high-burden infectious diseases. Located on the cell's outer surface, ACE2 plays an important role in controlling blood pressure and inflammation and protecting organs from damage caused by excess inflammation. During a SARS-CoV-2 infection, the coronavirus spike protein locks on to ACE2 to enter the cell. The gene encoding the ACE2 protein is located on the X chromosome, which means that females have two copies of the gene and males only have one. In times of health, the extra copy of the gene for ACE2 doesn't appear to make a difference—Zhang and his team found similar levels of ACE2 protein in healthy males and females. Following a SARS-CoV-2 infection, however, they observed a dramatic decrease in ACE2 in males while levels remained consistent in females, suggesting that the additional copy of the ACE2 gene on the X chromosome is helping to compensate and maintain high protein levels in females. The changes in ACE2 levels were also correlated with a drop in estrogen hormone signaling in males, which could also contribute to the sex-specific differences in COVID-19 outcomes.

‘A deadly societal force’: A Q&A with author Dr. Peter Hotez on the anti-science movement | CIDRAP - Scientist and researcher Peter Hotez, MD, PhD, has just published his fifth book, “The Deadly Rise of Anti-Science: A Scientist’s Warning,” on the global assault on science, vaccines, and scientists, which he considers a threat to democracy in the United States.Hotez is a professor in the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine and codirector of the Texas Childrens Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, both in Houston. He spoke with CIDRAP News yesterday about the anti-vaccine movement’s growth into an organized, well-funded movement that he says is the signature of an authoritarian regime.The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

COVID-19 metrics trend down across US - Today in its weekly update on COVID-19 activity, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said several markers of the virus were trending downward, including emergency department visits and test positivity.Test positivity from September 24 to September 30 was 10.9%, down 1.2% from the previous week, and emergency department visits dropped to 1.6%, down 14.5% from the previous week. Deaths, however, while still at low levels, were up 3.8%.In total 18,139 people were admitted to the hospital in the last week of September for COVID-19, down 6% from the previous week. Hospitalization hot spots include communities in Montana, Idaho, Missouri, and Kansas.Those are the only states with a high rate of hospitalizations in some counties.Overall, the summer spike in activity seen in August and early September has seemed to wane. As seen last week, data from wastewater analytics Biobot show a decline in SARS-CoV-2 levels.Next week the CDC will release its variant projections. Last week, variants EG.5 and FL.1.5.1 made up about 40% of sequenced samples. In other COVD news, yesterday in Eurosurveillance, researchers published a study comparing COVID-19 national surveillance systems as they existed in mid-May 2021 in six European countries. Data on the number of COVID-19 tests and positive cases registered from week 13 (March 29 to April 4) and week 30 (July 26 to August 1) were collected from national public health organization websites or the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and verified by individual country representatives.Belgium, England, France, Italy, Romania, and Sweden participated in the study. The authors calculated the average number of tests per 1,000 population per day, the test-positivity rate (number of cases divided by the number of tests) and the average 7-day incidence per 100,000 population by week over the study period, and the proportion of real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) among all tests.England averaged 17.4 tests per 1,000 population per day, the most of any country, while Romania was the lowest, with 1.3 tests per 1,000 per day. The disease incidence per 100,000 population per week was highest in France (148), followed by England (139), Sweden (125), Belgium (117), Italy (75), and Romania (40). In Belgium and Sweden, 90% and 95% of tests used, respectively, were RT-PCR. Outside of England, no country recorded the results of at-home antigenic testing into national databases, the authors said."The highest testing rates were observed in England, where antigenic tests were free and easily accessible to all," the authors wrote. "The second highest testing rates were observed in France, where both RT-PCR and antigenic tests were free for everyone. The lowest testing rates were reported in Romania, where contacts were not eligible for free testing, contrary to other countries in the study.

Gatwick airports cancels flights and school closes down as COVID spreads in UK --The spread of COVID led to London’s Gatwick airport limiting the number of daily flights last week. Widespread absences due to sickness among staff responsible for air traffic control meant that the airport, Britain’s second largest, was forced to limit the number of flights taking off or landing to just 800 each day, from Monday to Sunday. This resulted in 164 flights being cancelled, with an estimated 25,000 passengers affected. According to National Air Traffic Services (NATS), as many as 30 percent of air traffic control staff were reported to be ill after an outbreak of COVID-19. This was not the first time that Gatwick had to cancel flights last month. On September 14, 22 flights were cancelled, again due to short-notice staff absences in the air traffic control team. A “flu-like” illness was cited as the cause then. It is highly likely that was also due to COVID-19. This latest outbreak comes as a new wave of COVID that started during the summer continues to impact the population. According to the ZOE Health Study app, which tracks cases based on reports from the public, there are currently an estimated 1.2 million symptomatic COVID cases in Britain. This is double the low point of 600,000 recorded at the beginning of July. There were 3.8 million cases recorded by ZOE at the peak of the Omicron surge in spring 2022. Daily cases are on the rise, with 97,000 reported just on September 27. Since ZOE only counts cases where someone had a test (either PCR or lateral flow) and self-reported it, the count must be considered an underestimate. Free testing was wound up last year, after the Conservative government declared the end of the pandemic. The government’s own dashboard that records only cases where tests were administered in hospitals, recorded just 12,187 cases in England in the week ending on September 23 (still up 13.7 percent compared to the previous week), about an eighth of the ZOE figure, itself an undercount. According to the government recent weeks have seen the test positivity rate shoot up to as much as 16.8 percent, also suggesting a significant number of cases go unreported. The number of hospitalisations has increased to 3,047, up 10 percent from the previous week. Deaths, which lag behind infection numbers, have also started to increase, with 229 COVID fatalities in the week ending September 15. The Eris variant (EG.5.1) is now dominant in Britain, with 31 percent of sequenced cases between September 11 and 17, followed closely by Arcturus (XBB.1.16) and XBB at 30 percent each. The new “Pirola” variant (BA.2.86), over which scientists are sounding the alarm due its ability to evade previous immunity, accounts for 1 percent of sequenced cases. According to figures from the UK Health Security Agency, there have been 54 confirmed cases of Pirola in the UK (48 in England and six in Scotland). The body said that “sporadic” cases of the Pirola strain are being found “in most regions”. Most Pirola cases occurred at a care home in Norfolk, where 33 out of 38 (87 percent) residents were infected over a 2-week period, with nine requiring hospitalization. A recent report on the outbreak highlights the fact that it had a much higher attack rate and severity of symptoms than similar previous outbreaks, despite relatively recent vaccinations (88 percent of residents had had a booster in the past four months). Though none of the residents died from the infection due to the prompt response of the care home staff, this episode highlights the seriousness of Pirola, as well as the danger of letting the virus mutate indefinitely.

RSV hospitalizations have worse clinical outcomes for older Americans than flu, COVID - Though hospitalizations for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are less common than those for flu or COVID-19, they are more severe and more likely to occur in adults ages 75 and older, according to new data published today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.The study looked at adult hospitalization for RSV in the United States from February 2022 to May 2023. A total of 5,784 adults aged 60 years or older hospitalized with acute respiratory illness and laboratory-confirmed RSV, SARS-CoV-2, or influenza infection were prospectively enrolled in the study conducted at 25 US hospitals.Severity of illness was based on the following outcomes: standard-flow oxygen therapy, high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) or noninvasive ventilation (NIV), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) or death.Overall, 304 (5.3%) adults were hospitalized with RSV, 4,734 (81.8%) with COVID-19, and 746 (12.9%) with influenza. The median age of hospitalized RSV patients was 72 years, compared to 74 for COVID-19 and 71 for influenza. The odds for all outcomes were higher for RSV patients compared to COVID-19 or influenza. Patients hospitalized with RSV were more likely than hospitalized COVID-19 patients or hospitalized influenza patients to receive standard-flow oxygen (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.97 [COVID-19] and 2.07 [influenza]) and HFNC or NIV (aOR, 2.25 [COVID-19] and 1.99 [influenza]) or to be admitted to an ICU (aOR, 1.49 [COVID-19] and 1.55 [influenza]).The odds of the composite outcome of IMV or death between patients hospitalized with RSV and patients hospitalized with COVID-19 was similar but much higher for RSV compared to influenza."Clinical outcomes in patients hospitalized with RSV were worse than those among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 or influenza," the authors said. "Because RSV disease is less common than COVID-19 or influenza disease among hospitalized patients, clinicians might be less aware of RSV as a serious respiratory pathogen in older adults."

Australian wastewater study highlights antimicrobial resistance in nursing homes - A wastewater study in Australia suggests nursing homes could be a significant contributor to antimicrobial resistance (AMR), researchers reported yesterday in Microbiology Spectrum.In the study, researchers from the University of South Australia collected wastewater samples from two residential aged care facilities (RACFs) and one retirement village in Adelaide. One of the RACFs had implemented an antimicrobial stewardship program 3 years prior to the study. The samples were collected at five different time points over 18 months (October 2019 to February 2021), and Escherichia coli were isolated and assessed for phenotypic and genotypic resistance. Whole-genome sequencing was conducted to identify resistance genes.Of the 93 antibiotic-resistant E coli isolates analyzed (58 from RACF 1, 27 from RACF 2, and 8 from the retirement village), 66.7% and 97.6% were resistant to ceftazidime and ciprofloxacin, respectively. In addition, high levels of resistance to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (54.8%) and gentamicin (50.5%) were observed. A much higher incidence of resistance to cefepime (84.5%) and ceftazidime (98.3%) was found in RACF 1, while RACF 2 had higher levels of gentamicin resistance (66.7%).Although all isolates analyzed in the study were resistant to at least one antibiotic, RACF 1— which did not have an antimicrobial stewardship program—also harbored a greater number of multidrug-resistant (MDR)E coli isolates, with 93.1% of isolates recovered from the facility shown to be resistant to at least three antibiotics, compared with 18.5% in RACF 2. Further analysis revealed the presence of the international high-risk E coli clone, ST131, and a higher prevalence of mobile resistance genes in RACF 1, as well.The researchers say that while the study was limited to three sites and 300 residents, the findings suggest a wider problem, as inappropriate antibiotic use is known to be common in nursing homes."The results of this study highlight the need for ongoing surveillance of residential aged care facilities when it comes to medication use," lead study author Henrietta Venter, PhD, said in a university press release. "Given our ageing population, there is a crucial need to regularly monitor these facilities and mitigate the threat of AMR."

Enhanced IPC measures at cancer center linked to reduced infections during COVID -Robust infection prevention and control (IPC) measures at a comprehensive cancer center during the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with significant decreases in healthcare-associated infections (HAIs), researchers reported today in the American Journal of Infection Control.To evaluate the impact of IPC practices at the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center during the pandemic, researchers analyzed the monthly incidence rate (IR) of HAIs from September 2016 through March 2022, a period that covered 42 months before and 25 months after the start of the pandemic. Over that period, the hospital cared for more than 1,800 COVID-19 patients.Stricter IPC measures implemented during the pandemic included increased use of personal protective equipment, enhanced contact precautions, and emphasis on hand hygiene. Among the HAIs analyzed were laboratory-identified Clostridioides difficile infection (Li-CDI), infections caused by multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs), nosocomial (hospital-acquired) respiratory viral infections (RVIs), and device-related infections.Overall, the researchers observed a significant decrease in the IR of Li-CDI, central line-associated bloodstream infections, and all nosocomial RVIs combined during the pandemic. Declines were also observed in the IR of infections caused by individual viruses, including flu and respiratory syncytial virus. The IR of catheter-associated urinary tract infections, ventilator-associated events, and MDROs did not significantly change between the two periods. The decrease in HAIs at MD Anderson runs counter to the experience in many US healthcare settings, which saw HAIs rise during the pandemic.However, the study did find that the IR of MDROs in the COVID-19 wards was five times higher than in other inpatient wards. The study authors say that finding matched data from other hospitals in the United States and around the world showing increases in MDRO HAIs during the pandemic, particularly among patients admitted with COVID-19. The authors also note that the impact of specific IPC measures (such as universal masking, face shields, and hand hygiene) remains unclear."Therefore, whether these enhanced measures, such as masking at all times as part of patient care, are recommended during the upcoming respiratory viral seasons still needs to be determined in future studies," they concluded.

33 new cases in a pet turtle-linked Salmonella - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updated its information on a Salmonella outbreak linked to pet turtles, which includes 33 new cases and 7 more affected states. There are now 59 illnesses and 23 hospitalizations in an outbreak affecting 18 states. No deaths have been reported. Pennsylvania has 10 cases, Tennessee has 7, and California has 6. Illnesses started on dates ranging from October 27, 2022, to August 26, 2023. The median age of cases is 7, and 39% are under the age of 5. "State and local public health officials interviewed people about the animals they had contact with in the week before they got sick," the CDC said. "Of the 46 people who provided this information, 33 (72%) reported contact with pet turtles. Of the 26 people who reported the size of the pet turtle, 26 (100%) reported contact with pet turtles with shells less than 4 inches long." Selling pet turtles less than 4 inches long is federally banned as the animals are linked to a number of infections. But the animals are relatively easily to obtain online, or at some pet shops. The CDC urges people to always wash their hands after handling pet turtles, only buy turtles larger than 4 inches, and avoid kissing the turtles.

Source unknown in India's latest Nipah virus outbreak --The World Health Organization (WHO) today shared more details about India's latest Nipah virus outbreaks, including that testing of samples from bats and their environments near where the first patient lived turned up no positives. In the statement, the WHO said the number of human cases remains at six, with infections fatal for two of the patients. The outbreak is centered in Kozhikode district in Kerala state and marks India's sixth outbreak of Nipah virus and the third to strike Kozhikode district. The first patient was admitted to the hospital in late August with pneumonia and respiratory distress. He died a few days later.All six patients are male, ages 9 to 45 years old. The other five patients are close contacts of the index patient, and two are his family members. The others are hospital contacts, and the second death occurred in someone who had visited another patient who was hospitalized in the facility at the same time. As of September 27, 1,288 contacts had been identified and placed under quarantine for 21 days. The four survivors with confirmed infections are clinically stable, the WHO said. High-risk contacts were tested, and all were negative.Genetic sequencing at India's National Institute of Virology revealed that the virus is the Indian genotype and is similar to a strain found in Bangladesh, another country that has reported Nipah virus outbreaks.As part of the response, health officials collected samples from bats, bat droppings, and half-eaten fruit from the village where the first patient lived, which is in a forest that is home to several bat species. So far, all tests have been negative. However, the WHO said bats are known to harbor Nipah virus and are a potential infection source. After the outbreak was detected, health officials imposed several measures to limit the spread. A ban on public events in Kozhikode district was allowed to expire on October 1. Nipah virus is a paramyxovirus and is found in South and Southeast Asia. The disease has a high case-fatality rate, between 45% and 75%. Its natural reservoir is fruit bats. Nipah virus is one of the WHO's priority diseases for research and development and is one the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness and Innovations (CEPI) top priorities for development of countermeasures. Currently, there are no approved vaccines or treatments.

Polio cases reported in Afghanistan, Chad, and DR Congo -Three countries reported new polio cases this week, according to the latest update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI).In Afghanistan, one wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) case was reported in Nangarhar province, bringing the number of reported cases in 2023 to six. GPEI notes that Nangarhar was covered during the subnational immunization days in May and July, as part of an intensified effort to disrupt persistent local WPV1 transmission in the area.Chad reported 3 cases of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) in Logone Oriental, Mayo Kebbi Est, and Dar Sila provinces, bringing the number of 2023 cases to 36. The Democratic Republic of the Congo reported 1 cVDPV2 case, in Tshopo province, bringing its 2023 total to 90. Not included in the GPEI update is a WPV1 case in an 18-month-old girl in Islamabad, Pakistan. That case was confirmed by Pakistan's National Polio Laboratory, according to reporting by Pakistani news channel ARY News. It's the country's third polio case this year.

Record dengue deaths in Bangladesh include more than 100 children - Save the Children, an international health organization, today said children have been hit hard in Bangladesh's ongoing dengue outbreak, with at least 113 pediatric deaths reported so far.About 225,000 cases have been reported in the current outbreak, more than 38,000 of them children, and people younger than 20 make up 30% of all dengue cases. So far, more than 1,000 deaths have been reported.Save the Children, which is working in six urban areas in Bangladesh, said younger children are more vulnerable to the virus because their immune systems aren't fully developed, and they have more exposure when they play outside and don't sleep under mosquito nets. The group added that kids younger than 5 are especially at risk of severe symptoms, including dehydration and shock.Lima Rahman, MBBS, Save the Children's health director, said, "Dengue is a relentless enemy, particularly when it comes to our children and their families. Its impact reaches far beyond the physical suffering of the infected child. It disrupts their education, puts immense economic and emotional pressure on families, and strains our healthcare systems."The group said the surge in dengue cases in Asia is linked to the climate crisis. Dhaka, the country's capital, has experienced its highest temperatures in six decades, followed by monsoon rains. The El Nino weather pattern is expected to exacerbate rising temperatures in Asia, which increases the risk of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. They called on high-income countries to increase their support for lower-income countries that are struggling with the burden of dengue disease.In its latest weekly surveillance update, the Florida Department of Health reported 7 more locally acquired dengue cases, raising the year's total to 38. The state typically reports sporadic local cases each year. Of the 38 cases so far, 33 are from Miami-Dade County. The other cases were from Broward, Hardee, and Polk counties.

Arkansas reports locally acquired malaria case The Arkansas Department of Health (ADH) yesterday reported a locally acquired malaria infection, the fourth state this year to report a local malaria case.In a press release, the ADH said the patient lives in Saline County, which is located in the central part of the state. The individual had not traveled outside of the country. The state has reported five travel-related malaria cases this year. In August, Maryland reported its first locally acquired malaria case in four decades, and earlier this year, Florida reported seven cases, all from Sarasota County, and Texas reported a case in a person who had worked outdoors in Cameron County. Malaria was eliminated from the United States in the 1950s, but Anopheles mosquitoes that can transmit the parasite still exist and have been implicated in sporadic local outbreaks. For example, an outbreak in Florida’s Palm Beach County in 2003 led to eight infections. Malaria infections in travelers who contract malaria in countries where the disease is still endemic can introduce the parasite to local mosquito populations. In an August update, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said the risk of locally acquired malaria remains very low in the United States. It added that affected states have stepped up their mitigation and surveillance efforts and that the CDC is providing technical assistance to state and local officials.

WHO recommends second malaria vaccine - Against the backdrop of unprecedented demand for a new malaria vaccine, the World Health Organization (WHO) today recommended a second malaria vaccine called R21/Matrix-M, which is expected to boost supply. The recommendation came following an extensive safety and efficacy review by the WHO's Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) and its Malaria Policy Advisory Group. The vaccine was developed by the University of Oxford and is licensed and made by the Serum Institute of India. The company has said it has the capacity to make 200 million doses each year. Health officials estimate that half a million children in Africa die each year from malaria, and the arrival of vaccines has been eagerly anticipated. So far, at least 28 African countries have said they will include the malaria vaccine in their routine immunization programs. In 2021, the WHO recommended the first malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01. WHO advisors based their recommendation on ongoing clinical trials, which suggest R21 has high efficacy when given ahead of high malaria transmission season, similar to that for seasonal use of RTS,S. The vaccine had good efficacy after three doses, with levels maintained with a fourth dose given 1 year after the third dose. At $2 to $4 dollars per dose, the vaccine's cost-effectiveness is thought to be comparable to other malaria interventions and childhood immunizations. The vaccines have not been tested in head-to-head trials, and the WHO said use of either vaccine should depend on vaccine program requirements, supply, and affordability. In a WHO statement, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said that as a former malaria researcher, he dreamed of a day when the world had a safe effective vaccine. "Now we have two," he said. "Demand for the RTS,S vaccine far exceeds supply, so this second vaccine is a vital additional tool to protect more children faster, and to bring us closer to our vision of a malaria-free future." Matshidiso Moeti, MBBS, who directs the WHO's African regional office, said the vaccine has the potential to fill the demand-and-supply gap. "Delivered to scale and rolled out widely, the two vaccines can help bolster malaria prevention and control efforts and save hundreds of thousands of young lives in Africa from this deadly disease." As the next step, the WHO will complete the prequalification process, which would pave the way for countries and groups to buy the vaccine for a broader rollout. The RTS,S vaccine will launch in some African countries in 2024, and R21 is expected top become available in the middle of 2024.

UK study shows antibiotics aren't needed for dogs with diarrhea -A new study by researchers in the United Kingdom indicates that dogs with uncomplicated diarrhea do not appear to benefit from antibiotics.The authors of the causal inference study, published today in PLOS One, say the findings provide evidence that antibiotic use for one of the most commonly diagnosed conditions in dogs should be restricted.Using data from VetCompass, a large veterinary clinical database shared by UK veterinary practices, a team led by researchers with the Royal Veterinary College (RVC) set out to assess the clinical effectiveness of two approaches commonly used to treat dogs with acute diarrhea: antibiotics and gastrointestinal nutraceuticals (dietary supplements). They used a "target trial" design, which applies principles from randomized controlled trials to the analysis of observational data for causal inference.The study authors note that while there is little evidence that antibiotics are effective for treating uncomplicated diarrhea cases in dogs, and guidelines from the British Small Animal Veterinary Association state that dogs presenting with acute gastrointestinal signs do not require antibiotics, analysis of veterinary prescribing has shown that antibiotics are prescribed in more than 50% of dogs with the condition, with metronidazole being the most commonly prescribed antibiotic.This type of evidence-free antibiotic use, they add, raises concerns about promoting antimicrobial resistance, and the potential for negative impacts on the canine gut microbiome.

USDA bars poultry imports from France due to avian flu vaccination issues - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) on September 29 announced that it has restricted the import of poultry from France and its European Union trading partners following France's decision to vaccinate meat ducks against highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).APHIS said vaccination poses a risk of introducing HPAI into the United States. Vaccinated birds may not show any signs of disease but can harbor the virus, a situation that can mask the spread of the virus. The United States doesn't allow poultry imports from countries affected by HPAI or from flocks that have been vaccinated against HPAI.The restrictions against French poultry took effect October 1 and also include live ducks, duck eggs, and unmitigated duck products from France's trading partners. With the way poultry is traded and marketed in the European Union and related countries, APHIS can't ensure that the exports don't originate from countries vaccinating against HPAI.APHIS said its discussions with the European Commission about HPAI vaccination programs in the European Union are ongoing.Due to major poultry losses, especially due to the H5N1 2.3.4.4.b clade, the European Union in 2022 backed a plan to introduce vaccination in poultry, starting with France, with a campaign slated to begin this fall. Some countries, such as China, routinely vaccinate poultry against HPAI, but most countries have held back due to possibility that use of the vaccine could mask ongoing circulation. The vaccine would also add extra cost to the price of production. However, the burden of recent H5N1 outbreaks has caused countries to reconsider, and the USDA is currently evaluating vaccines in research trials.

Arizona governor revokes Saudi-owned alfalfa farm lease, announces nonrenewal of others - Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) declared Monday that she would be revoking the lease of a Saudi-owned alfalfa venture that has for years siphoned off state water resources and rattled residents across party lines. The governor’s office announced the immediate cancellation of one of four leases in Arizona’s Butler Valley held by the company Fondomonte, after deeming the firm “in significant ongoing default of its lease dating back to 2016.” The other three Butler Valley leases, set to expire in February, would not receive renewals, the announcement added. “I’m not afraid to do what my predecessors refused to do — hold people accountable, maximize value for the state land trust, and protect Arizona’s water future,” Hobbs said in a statement. Fondomonte acquired its Butler Valley leases, which cover about 3,500 acres of land northwest of Phoenix, in 2015. The region is home to critical groundwater supplies, in a desert state that is thirsting for such resources. While Fondomonte received permits for its water wells in 2016 — and has since been growing alfalfa to nourish cattle in Saudi Arabia — the firm made headlines last year when The Arizona Republic exposed its below-market lease terms. With orders from Hobbs, the State Land Department conducted site inspections in August and determined that the company had failed to address defaults already identified in November 2016, according to the governor’s office. Among the deficiencies left unresolved for seven years was a failure to install a system designed to contain leaks in diesel storage units, Hobbs’s office noted. “It’s unacceptable that Fondomonte has continued to pump unchecked amounts of groundwater out of our state while in clear default on their lease,” the governor said. But even after Monday’s decision — which can be appealed — the company has another 9,834 acres in Vicksburg, about 20 miles due south of Butler Valley. Fondomonte is a subsidiary of Saudi Arabian dairy giant Almarai, which secured land in Arizona for growing alfalfa — a highly water-intensive crop — to feed its cattle at home. Saudi Arabia instituted a near ban on “cultivating green fodder” in November 2018, with the goal of alleviating pressure on water resources, according to an analysis from the Dutch government. Upon securing the Vicksburg land in 2014, Almarai reported its plans to “supply of the highest quality alfalfa” — a move considered “in line with the Saudi government direction toward conserving local resources.” Arizona was a particularly attractive environment for such operations due to legal loopholes in state groundwater laws that essentially allow for unbridled water use. Historically, this nonrestrictive environment has attracted both domestic and international companies that are unable to conduct such water-intensive agriculture at home. In addition to the immediate revocation of one of the Butler Valley permits, the governor’s office determined that renewing the other three would not be in the state’s best interest “due to excessive amounts of water being pumped from the land — free of charge.”

Australia experiences driest September on record, endangering agricultural production - Areas of severe rainfall deficiency are expanding in Australia, following the country’s driest September on record (since 1900), affecting the nation’s farm production and contributing to a 41% predicted fall in average farm incomes in the 2023–24 financial year. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology reported on October 6, 2023, that the country witnessed the driest September on record, increasing concerns for the agricultural sector. Rainfall nationwide in September was 70.8% below the average measured between 1961 – 1990. The severe dry spell is part of an El Nino weather pattern, known to bring hotter and drier conditions. Farmers in parts of southeastern Australia did experience some relief through recent rainfalls, yet the overall impact on the country’s wheat harvest has been negative. The Australian government has indicated that average farm incomes are projected to plummet by 41% in the fiscal year 2023–24. For the five months since May 2023, all Australian states and territories have seen areas of rainfall deficiencies. Notable regions include large parts of south-west Western Australia and much of the country’s south-east. “Areas of deficiency have generally expanded and become more severe, and new areas have emerged, including along the West Coast district in South Australia and in the Central district in Victoria,” the Bureau said. rainfall deficiencies may 1 to september 30 2023 australia In addition, soil moisture levels in September were recorded as below average for much of Australia, ranking in the lowest 30% since 1911, except for northern and central inland areas. Data from New South Wales revealed that although only 3.5% of the state is officially in drought, an additional 28.2% falls under the drought-affected category, indicating weakened agricultural conditions. australia lower-layer-soil-moisture september 2023 Low streamflows were observed mostly at sites in the south and south-eastern New South Wales, south-eastern Queensland, scattered sites in the southwest of Western Australia, and most sites in Victoria and Tasmania. Storage levels remain low in some parts of southern and central Queensland, south-eastern parts of New South Wales, central Tasmania, and urban areas of Perth. For November 2023 to January 2024, below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for much of western, northern, and southern Australia, with small areas of northern New South Wales having a slightly increased chance of above median rainfall.

Justice Department Sues eBay Over Unlawful Sales of Pesticides, Other Products - Online retail giant eBay has been illegally selling hundreds of thousands of harmful pesticides and other unsafe products, posing “unacceptable risks” to communities across the country, according to a complaint filed Wednesday by the US Department of Justice (DOJ).The legal action was filed on behalf of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in federal court in New York. It argues that the company’s actions violated environmental laws including the Clean Air Act (CAA), the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA), and the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA).“The complaint filed today demonstrates that EPA will hold online retailers responsible for the unlawful sale of products on their websites that can harm consumers and the environment,” David Uhlmann, Assistant Administrator for EPA’s Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance, said in a press release.The DOJ and EPA allege that eBay sold at least 23,000 unregistered, misbranded, and restricted use pesticides, including a highly toxic insecticide banned in the US, and products that make false claims about protecting against the virus that causes COVID-19.This was not eBay’s first alleged FIFRA violation. In June 2020, the EPA ordered eBay, as well as Amazon, to stop selling pesticide-containing products that claimed to prevent COVID-19. The following summer, the agency ordered eBay to stop selling an additional 170 unregistered or misbranded pesticide products.A team of journalists were able to buy five different pesticides and herbicides illegal in the United Kingdom through eBay’s general and UK websites in 2018, including atrazine, which by law may only be purchased by certified herbicide users in the US.The DOJ complaint also alleges that eBay sold over 5,600 items such as paints and coating removal products that contain methyl chloride, which presents numerous health risks, including death.And the DOJ alleges Ebay sold or offered more than 343,000 “aftermarket defeat devices,” which allow drivers to bypass their vehicles’ emissions controls, allowing cars and trucks to emit hundreds to thousands of times more pollution. These harmful nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, non-methane hydrocarbons, and particulate matter low air quality and increase risk for cardiovascular problems and premature death.Sales of aftermarket defeat devices for diesel trucks after 2009 and before 2020 released more than 570,000 tons of excess nitrogen oxides and 5,000 tons of excess particulate matter into the atmosphere over the trucks’ lifetimes, according to an EPA study.“The Government’s actions are entirely unprecedented and eBay intends to vigorously defend itself,” the company said in a statement, countering that it has dedicated “significant resources” and uses “state-of-the-art technology” to prevent products that violate environmental laws from being listed on its website.

Record-breaking rainfall swamps New York City, causing widespread urban flooding - Record-breaking rainfall submerged streets and disrupted travel across the New York City metropolitan area on September 29, 2023. The deluge set new daily records and made this month the wettest September in New York City’s recorded history. Heavy rains disrupted daily life in the New York City metropolitan area, causing severe urban flooding that stranded motorists, led to the closing of roads and subways, and grounded hundreds of flights. On September 29, JFK Airport registered 202.7 mm (7.97 inches), Central Park 139 mm (5.47 inches), LaGuardia Airport 104.1 mm (4.10 inches), and Bridgeport Airport 43.7 mm (1.72 inches), establishing new daily records for the date. These measurements there began in 1882. Further reinforcing the extraordinary conditions, Central Park recorded nearly 50.8 mm (2 inches) of rainfall in just one hour between 09:00 and 10:00 LT. AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter stressed that the rate of rainfall was a significant factor, noting that downpours at the rate of 38 to 76 mm (1.5 to 3 inches) per hour are too much for sewer and stormwater systems to handle. In response to the flooding crisis, New York Governor Kathy Hochul declared a State of Emergency for New York City, Long Island, and the Hudson Valley. The advisory urged residents to stay safe and avoid flooded roads. New Jersey also faced challenges, as water rescues were reported due to flash flooding in the state. Reflecting on the larger context, the month of September 2023 has set records for rainfall in New York City. JFK Airport recorded 330.4 mm (13.01 inches), or 363% of normal precipitation levels for the month, making it the wettest September on record. Similarly, LaGuardia reported 324.3 mm (12.76 inches), or 329% of normal, and Central Park logged 361.9 mm (14.25 inches), or 331% of normal. These figures represent a significant outlier in New York City’s climatological history, with Central Park’s data indicating that this was the second-wettest September on record. The historical perspective is also noteworthy. The wettest day for the Central Park area remains September 23, 1882, when 210.3 mm (8.28 inches) of rain was measured in a 24-hour period, followed by April 15, 2007, with 192.3 mm (7.57 inches). While September 2023 had average temperatures throughout New York, the dominant weather story was unquestionably the excessive rainfall.

A new map shows how climate change threatens your neighborhood -- If you’ve been wondering what climate change means for your neighborhood, you’re in luck. The most detailed interactive map yet of the United States’ vulnerability to dangers such as fire, flooding, and pollution was released on Monday by the Environmental Defense Fund and Texas A&M University.The fine-grained analysis spans more than 70,000 census tracts, which roughly resemble neighborhoods, mapping out environmental risks alongside factors that make it harder for people to deal with hazards. Clicking on a report for a census tract yields details on heat, wildfire smoke, and drought, in addition to what drives vulnerability to extreme weather, such as income levels and access to health care and transportation.The “Climate Vulnerability Index” tool is intended to help communities secure funding from the bipartisan infrastructure law and the Inflation Reduction Act, the landmark climate law President Joe Biden signed last summer. An executive order from Biden’s early months in office promised that “disadvantaged communities” would receive at least 40 percent of the federal investments in climate and clean energy programs. As a result of the infrastructure law signed in 2021, more than $1 billion has gone toward replacing lead pipes and more than $2 billion has been spent on updating the electric grid to be more reliable.“The Biden Administration has made a historic level of funding available to build toward climate justice and equity, but the right investments need to flow to the right places for the biggest impact,” Grace Tee Lewis, a health scientist at the Environmental Defense Fund, said in a statement. According to the data, all 10 of the country’s most vulnerable counties are in the South, many along the Gulf Coast, where there are high rates of poverty and health problems. Half are in Louisiana, which faces dangers from flooding, hurricanes, and industrial pollution. St. John the Baptist Parish, just up the Mississippi River from New Orleans, ranks as the most vulnerable county, a result of costly floods, poor child and maternal health, a list of toxic air pollutants, and the highest rate of disaster-related deaths in Louisiana. Similar maps of local climate impacts have been released before, including by the Environmental Protection Agency and theWhite House Council on Environmental Quality, but the new tool is considered the most comprehensive assessment to date. While it includes Alaska and Hawai‘i, it doesn’t cover U.S. territories like Puerto Rico or Guam. The map is available here, and tutorials on how to use the tool, for general interest or for community advocates, are here.

Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina could merge, National Hurricane Center says - CBS News Two tropical storms moving over the Atlantic Ocean could potentially merge, the National Hurricane Center said Thursday, although several variables were still in play and it was unclear whether the consolidation of Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina would actually happen. Tropical Storm Philippe has been moving slowly over the Caribbean Sea. It is forecast to maintain its speed over the next few days while remaining east of the northern Leeward Islands, the National Hurricane Center said in a Friday morning advisory. At the time, Philippe was situated about 520 miles east of the northern Leewards, with maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour. The storm was expected to move gradually westward or southwestward without much fluctuation in strength through the rest of the week, with some strengthening possible over the weekend. Tropical Storm Rina formed on the heels of Philippe over the central part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. As of Friday morning, it was located over 1,000 miles east of the northern Leewards, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Rina was expected to continue moving west-northwest over the next several days and could strengthen slightly, according to the hurricane center. No coastal watches or warnings linked to Philippe or Rina were in effect Friday and there were no marked hazards to land, but meteorologists noted that the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should "monitor the progress" of Philippe. "Philippe remains a very disorganized and elongated storm," forecasters said, adding that "confidence is very low on the storm's position" and said it may no longer have a "well-defined center." Rina is expected to remain a tropical storm into next week, "though some of the regional hurricane models do indicate a faster rate of intensification during the next several days compared to the NHC," forecasters said Thursday. The hurricane center predicted that Rina's consistent wind shear coupled with the close proximity and uncertain interaction with Philippe would limit its ability to intensify. The hurricane center noted that forecasting Philippe's path is "challenging," partially because of how close it is to Rina. "A complicating factor to this track forecast is the proximity of an area of disturbed weather to the east of the cyclone," forecasters said Thursday morning. "Some models are still showing a binary interaction between the two systems, which will largely depend on the strength of each."

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Antigua & Barbuda Ahead of Philippe’s Arrival -- Tropical Storm Philippe, the latest major storm of the busy 2023 hurricane season, is expected to turn into 2023’s seventh hurricane this week. As of 11 a.m. on Sunday, Philippe was about 230 miles east-southeast of Barbuda and 180 miles east of Guadeloupe. It was moving west at 7 mph. The NHC is anticipating the storm to turn toward the northwest and increase in forward speed on Monday, passing near or just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Monday night.While a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Antigua & Barbuda, Philippe isn’t currently expected to have a significant impact on travel in the Caribbean outside of that area, according to the NHC, though Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Leeward Islands could see stronger swells on their Atlantic coasts over the next few days.“Heavy rainfall from Philippe could produce isolated to scattered flash flooding, particularly across Barbuda and Antigua, through Tuesday,” the latest update from the NHC reads.After that, the storm is expected to move farther away from the Caribbean and the east coast of the U.S. It is likely to be a hurricane when it gets close to Bermuda sometime on Friday morning. Still, its center isn’t expected to pass over the island.

Tropical Storm Warning Issued For Barbuda as Philippe Nears Leewards - Trinidad and Tobago Weather Center -- Tropical Storm Philippe’s center relocated approximately 130 kilometers east-southeast of Barbuda on Monday morning, prompting the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbuda as the risk for tropical-storm-force winds has increased. Meanwhile, feeder band activity continues to affect the entire Lesser Antilles island chain, from as south as Trinidad and Tobago, to as north as Anguilla, with the most intense activity generally remaining east of the region. Tropical Storm Philippe has remained near the Lesser Antilles for the last several days, influencing the atmosphere across the region, leading to strong afternoon thunderstorms and hot temperatures in T&T. Feeder band activity has also affected the Lesser Antilles, and influencing prevailing low-level winds across T&T, leading to showers and thunderstorms developing and moving from the southwest/south to northeast/north. As Philippe moves slowly but erratically west-northwest, a northwestward to north-northwestward turn is expected later today and tonight before moving into the open North Atlantic Ocean. However, it is forecast to make a fairly close pass to Antigua and Barbuda, bringing the risk of tropical storm-force winds, gusts, and heavy rainfall. Forecast models and the National Hurricane Center indicate Philippe remains a tropical storm as it moves past Antigua and Barbuda and further strengthen as it moves into the North Atlantic Ocean later this week, with the potential to become a hurricane. For Barbuda, tropical-storm-force winds and gusts are expected, while for Antigua, tropical-storm-force winds are possible with heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts, and agitated seas likely for both islands. For the remainder of the Lesser Antilles, including T&T, feeder band activity and enhanced convergence will support heavy showers and isolated intense thunderstorm activity that can produce gusty winds (>55 KM/H) capable of causing wind damage, heavy/violent rainfall rates triggering street/flash flooding, agitated seas, landslides, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

Philippe makes landfall in Barbuda, expected to become Category 1 hurricane later this week - Tropical Storm Philippe made landfall in Barbuda on Monday evening about 6 p.m. with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. The storm is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane later this week with top winds of 75 mph. The storm is moving northwest at 7 mph with tropical-storm-force winds extended out 175 miles. The NHC said that Philippe’s strongest winds and heavy rains will likely occur after the center passes the island. The storm could bring heavy rains and flooding to portions of the eastern Caribbean. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Antigua and Barbuda, the National Hurricane Center said. After the storm passes near Barbuda it will arc to the north and eventually northeast and become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday, at which point it should be traveling southeast of Bermuda and headed into the Atlantic. The far eastern Caribbean could get 4 to 6 inches of rain. The northern Leeward Islands were forecast to get 2 to 4 inches of rain. There is potential for isolated flooding, according to the latest advisory. Swells from Philippe will affect parts of the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and could cause dangerous rip currents and surf, according to the NHC. Philippe and Rina had interacted last week in an uncommon phenomenon in the Atlantic known as the Fujiwhara Effect, where two tropical cyclones start to spin around a common point. “Two storms closer in strength can gravitate towards each other until they reach a common point and merge, or merely spin each other around for a while before shooting off on their own paths,” the National Hurricane Center said. Rarely, it can create one larger storm rather than two smaller ones. So far this season in the Atlantic, there have been 16 named storms, six of which were hurricanes. Of those, three were major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or above. Those were Hurricane Lee, a rare Category 5; Hurricane Franklin, a Category 4; and Hurricane Idalia, which made landfall on Florida’s Big Bend region at Category 3 strength on Aug. 30.

Tropical Storm Philippe drenches the Leeward Islands » Yale Climate Connections -- Tropical Storm Philippe brought torrential rains on portions of the Leeward Islands overnight, causing flash flooding on Barbuda, Antigua, and Guadeloupe. On Antigua, Philippe dumped 156 mm (6.14 inches) of rain in the six hours ending at 2 a.m. EDT Tuesday. Peak wind gusts Tuesday morning included 47 mph on Antigua, 52 mph on Montserrat, and 37 mph on Guadeloupe. According to AP, Philippe knocked out power to 2,500 customers on Guadeloupe and blocked roads. At 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday, the center of Philippe was located about 70 miles northwest of Anguilla in the northern Leeward Islands, headed northwest at 10 mph. The Hurricane Hunters had found that Philippe had weakened, and now had top sustained winds of 45 mph and a central pressure of 1004 mb. Martinique radar showed that Philippe was bringing bands of heavy rains to a large portion of the Lesser Antilles. Satellite images showed an unhealthy tropical storm, with an ill-defined low-level center and all of Philippe’s heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast side of the storm. The models have come into much better agreement on the forecast for Philippe. The storm is expected to move north-northwest to north through Wednesday, dragging the storm’s heaviest rains through the northern Leeward Islands. The main threat to the islands will be heavy rains, with storm total amounts of 4-8 inches predicted for much of the Leeward Islands and British Virgin Islands, with 1-4 inches on surrounding islands. Note that some of these heavy rains will fall outside the official Tropical Storm Warning area (which was limited to Anguila as of 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday); such warnings are typically focused on areas where tropical-storm-force winds are expected. Beginning on Friday, when Philippe will be nearing Bermuda, wind shear is predicted to relax, allowing for some modest strengthening. The National Hurricane Center, or NHC, forecast calls for Philippe to peak with 65 mph winds on Saturday, when it will be approaching Atlantic Canada. An eventual landfall in Atlantic Canada on Sunday is predicted by most of the models, though Maine should be alert for any potential westward deviation in Philippe’s forecast track. On Sunday, Philippe is likely to have transitioned to an extratropical storm with top winds of 55-65 mph.

Tropical Storm Philippe soaks northeast Caribbean on a path toward Bermuda, New England and Canada - -- Tropical storm Philippe dropped heavy rains in the northeast Caribbean on Tuesday, forcing governments to close schools in the region as forecasters warned of flash flooding.The storm was located about 85 miles (135 kilometers) north of St. Thomas and had winds of up to 45 mph (75 kph). Philippe made landfall in Barbuda late Monday and was moving northwest at 12 mph (19 kph), according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.Forecasters warned that the strongest winds and rains would be felt by islands located south of the storm's center as Philippe moved north of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday.Officials in the twin-island nation of Antigua and Barbuda closed schools and government offices, while those in the French Caribbean territories of St. Martin and St. Barts closed schools. Meanwhile, officials in Guadeloupe said the storm knocked power out to 2,500 customers and left several communities without running water. It also forced two road closures and left one community isolated as crews worked to reopen roads. Philippe was expected to turn north-northwest late Tuesday and then take a path north into open waters on Wednesday. It is expected to approach Bermuda late Thursday and Friday.Forecasters said between 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) of rain was expected from Anguilla south to Montserrat, including St. Kitts and Nevis and the British Virgin Islands, with a maximum of 12 inches (30 centimeters). Up to 4 inches (10 centimeters) was expected for the remaining Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands and northeast Puerto Rico.

Long-tracking Tropical Storm Philippe to brush Bermuda en route to North America Tropical Storm Philippe continues to fight adverse atmospheric conditions as it treks across the Atlantic, unleashing heavy rain across portions of the Lesser Antilles in the eastern Caribbean. AccuWeather meteorologists, who have been tracking Philippe since mid-September days before an organized system developed, say the storm will travel for nearly 2,000 miles to the north, where it could strike Atlantic Canada with heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge early next week. Along its path, impacts will be felt from the eastern Caribbean to Bermuda and eventually Atlantic Canada. Even though the AccuWeather Eye Path® takes Philippe into Nova Scotia, Canada, late Sunday to early Monday, there is the potential for it to take more of a westward jog into northern New England. That track will depend on multiple factors, including the orientation of a surge of cool air across the Northeast. This image of Tropical Storm Philippe was captured on Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2023 and shows an ongoing eruption of torrential downpours and gusty thunderstorms over the Leeward and Windward islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea. The center of Philippe was located on the northwestern flank of the storms. "Into Tuesday morning, Philippe crawled enough to the west to bring torrential downpours to the Leeward and northern Windward islands, where a general 2-4 inches of rain has fallen with locally higher amounts," AccuWeather Tropical Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said. Hewanorra International Airport in St. Lucia picked up 3.54 inches of rain as of daybreak Tuesday, and 6.14 inches fell at Bird International Airport in Antigua and Barbuda. Flash flooding, washouts and rock and mudslides can occur in hilly terrain, AccuWeather forecasters warn. Philippe will soon take a more northerly course after crawling slowly to the northwest in the short term. As moisture wraps around the system's center and drifts westward, some of the torrential downpours will spread westward, reaching the British and U.S. Virgin Islands into midweek. The AccuWeather ReaImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes rating for Philippe in the eastern Caribbean is "less than one" based on the scope of rain, wind and rough seas that may affect lives and commerce in the region. Stiff breezes at the mid-levels of the atmosphere, called wind shear, caused most of the thunderstorm activity to be skewed to the storm's southeastern flank since late last week. As wind shear eases up ever so slightly, some of the thunderstorms may be able to circle around the center. More uniform thunderstorm activity may lead to some strengthening in the days ahead as Philippe departs the Caribbean and approaches Bermuda. Steering breezes will guide Philippe on a more northward course during much of this week and this weekend. Bermuda will be next in Philippe's path, with the potential for direct or indirect impacts. Beyond Bermuda, Philippe will most likely continue to track northward into Atlantic Canada. However, there is some risk that the system could veer farther to the west and perhaps into northern New England. Interests in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island should expect a period of heavy rain, strong winds and building seas to occur from Sunday to Monday as Philippe moves up from the south. There will be the likelihood of sporadic power outages, flash flooding, road washouts, and mudslides, including in some of the same areas hammered by Lee back in mid-September.

Philippe becomes a post-tropical cyclone as it drenches Bermuda en route to New England and Canada (AP) — Tropical Storm Philippe lashed Bermuda with heavy rains and winds but lost steam and was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone Friday as it churned northward on a path toward Atlantic Canada and New England. The system was located about 110 miles (180 kilometers) south of Bermuda on Friday. It had winds of up to 50 mph (85 kph) and was moving north-northeast at 16 mph (26 kph).The post-tropical cyclone was forecast to pass near the island later Friday. It was then expected to reach the coast of Nova Scotia or eastern New England on Saturday night into Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, which issued its last advisory on the system.Officials in Bermuda shuttered schools ahead of the storm. Up to 5 inches (13 centimeters) of rain was forecast for parts of New York, New England and Southeast Canada.“Interests in those areas should be prepared for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall,” the hurricane center said.Philippe made landfall in Barbuda late Monday as it drenched the northeast Caribbean, downing trees and power lines in a handful of islands. Some schools in the U.S. Virgin Islands remained closed Friday amid ongoing power outages.Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lidia swirled through open waters in the Pacific. It was located about 445 miles (710 kilometers) south of the southern tip of Baja California and had winds of up to 70 mph (110 kph). It was moving west-northwest at 5 mph (7 kph) and was expected to become a hurricane later on Friday.

Heavy rainfall from cold front, remnants of Philippe begin impacting Northeast and New England – Philippe has transitioned to a post-tropical storm and is headed north toward New England, bringing heavy rain and strong winds that could trigger flash flooding and scattered power outages. The storm spent much of Friday lashing Bermuda with heavy rain, strong rip currents and 40-mph winds. As Phillipe pushes northward, its next 36 hours will become a complex meteorological mess as the storm finishes transforming from tropical in nature to drawing energy from more traditional sources. What was Tropical Storm Philippe has become a post-tropical cyclone Friday, but naming convention aside, the storm still poses a risk of flash flooding across New England this weekend. The new form of Philippe will soon meet up with a cold front swinging into the Northeast from the west. Moisture from the two will combine to produce widespread soaking rain across the region this weekend. "The front will bring its own moisture and wind energy with it," said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. "The net result will be rain from the front along the I-95 corridor in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast (Saturday) into (Sunday), with heavier rain and stronger wind in New England (Saturday) into Sunday as the combo coastal storm and front meet." Many communities will see 1-3 inches of rain, with localized spots exceeding half a foot. This could lead to instances of flash flooding as most soil across New England and the Northeast are already saturated from a wet summer.

Tropical Storm Lidia forms in Eastern Pacific, could become hurricane by Sunday - Hawaii Tribune-Herald -- Forecasters are keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Lidia, a newly formed storm in the Eastern Pacific which is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday as it moves west.As of 11 a.m. today, Lidia was located about 480 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, packing maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and moving to the northwest at 8 mph.According to forecasters, a northwest to north-northwest motion, as well as gradual strengthening will continue for the next several days.

Tropical storm Lidia to bring rains in western Mexico -- A tropical storm well off the Pacific Coast of Mexico is expected to bring occasional but potentially very heavy rains to eight Mexican states on Tuesday.The effects of Tropical Storm Lidia will be felt mostly in coastal areas of the western states of Colima, Jalisco, Michoacán and Nayarit, according to an advisory from the National Meteorological Service (SMN). As of 9 a.m. Tuesday, the center of the storm was 510 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Colima, and 745 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur. Its maximum sustained winds were 40 mph, with some higher gusts.Effects might also be felt in Guerrero, Chiapas, Oaxaca and even Veracruz, but there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami. Strong gusts of winds are also expected.The system became the 12th named storm of the Pacific hurricane season when its formation was announced early Tuesday morning.The NHC was predicting that Lidia would move slowly in a northwest and north-northwest direction “over the next several days,” adding that there were no hazards affecting land.By Friday, it could evolve into a Category 1 hurricane, with winds from 75 to 93 mph, according to both NHC and SMN. By then the storm is expected to have taken a sharp turn even further away from Mexico’s west coast while remaining well south of the Baja Peninsula.

Will Tropical Storm Lidia make landfall in Mexico? - Tropical Storm Lidia is a tropical cyclone that had formed in the Eastern Pacific off the western coast of Mexico. It is forecast to become a hurricane shortly according to NHC advisories. The most recent forecast predicts that Lidia will turn west, then make a U-turn to the east towards the Mexican coast. Although Lidia is tilted, its center is still obscured by the cirrus canopy produced by its deep convection. Consequently, there is more uncertainty than normal with the tropical storm's center location. This is probably the largest source of uncertainty associated with Lidia's track for the next 2 to 3 days. Lidia should move slowly west-northwestward for the next day or so, and then gradually begin to turn northward after that. After about 72 h, Lidia should begin to accelerate northeastward, steered by a shortwave trough approaching from the northwest. While the dynamical models agree quite well on this general forecast, there is quite a bit of disagreement on how fast Lidia will accelerate around day 4 and 5. The NHC official track forecast has been nudged eastward, and lies roughly halfway between the TVCN and HCCA consensus models.

Typhoon “Koinu” hits Taiwan with record-breaking winds - Typhoon “Koinu” made landfall in Cape Eluanbi, southern Taiwan, on October 4, 2023, breaking wind speed records, downing trees and damaging homes. The typhoon left more than 300 people injured in its wake and one person dead. Koinu brought record-breaking winds to Taiwan, with wind gusts reaching 343 km/h (213 mph) at 21:53 local time on October 4, 2023, as well as sustained winds that reached 199 km/h (123.5 mph) at 21:40 LT. The wind speeds were measured on Orchid Island, southeast of Taiwan’s main island, by the Central Weather Administration’s Taitung Weather Station. Both values set all-time highs since Taiwan began keeping records of wind speeds in 1897. This was also the 3rd strongest wind gust observation of all time. The device measuring the wind speeds broke shortly after, said Huang Chia-mei, head of the Central Weather Administration’s Taitung Weather Station. The typhoon also brought heavy rainfall, particularly affecting the east-coast counties of Taitung and Hualien, as well as the mountainous Pingtung county in the south. By Thursday afternoon (LT), the maximum sustained winds had decreased to 155 km/h (96 mph), with gusts of 191 km/h (119 mph). One person was killed by flying glass in the central city of Taichung and at least 304 were injured around the island, Taiwan’s fire department said. In preparation for the typhoon, schools and offices were closed across many cities, including Kaohsiung. The capital, Taipei, however, continued to operate as normal and experienced a cessation of rain by Thursday morning (LT). Transportation across the island was severely impacted, with most domestic and some international flights canceled, according to Taiwan’s transportation ministry. Additionally, ferry services to outlying islands were suspended. Despite the disruptions and injuries, there have been no reported deaths. Typhoon Koinu marks only the second typhoon to make landfall in Taiwan in the past four years, the last being Typhoon “Haikui” on September 3, 2023 — which also resulted in multiple injuries but no fatalities. Haikui was the first typhoon to make landfall in mainland Taiwan in four years, after Bailu in 2019 (Bailu left one person dead). Haikui is also the first Category 3+ typhoon to hit the island since Typhoon “Megi” in 2016.

Devastating flash flood in Sikkim’s Lachen Valley leads to deaths and widespread damage, India - (videos) A cloudburst over Lhonak Lake in Sikkim, India, coupled with the release of water from Chungthang dam, triggered a rapid surge in water levels along the Teesta River basin at approximately 01:30 LT on Wednesday, October 4, 2023. The water levels soared to heights of 5 – 6 m (15 – 20 feet), resulting in significant infrastructure damage, at least three fatalities, and 23 individuals reported missing. Defense officials reported that establishments along the Lachen Valley have been adversely affected. While details are still being confirmed, it is clear that this event has had a broad impact on the region. Lt. Col Mahendra Rawat, a defense spokesperson, stated that Army vehicles parked at Bardang near Singtam have been affected by the flash flood. He also reported that 23 Army personnel are missing and 41 vehicles are submerged under slush; search operations are currently underway. The disaster has wrought havoc on infrastructure. Roads and bridges were destroyed, and many establishments in Mangan, Gangtok, Pakyong, and Namchi districts were damaged. One of the more significant losses is a 120 m (395 feet) cable suspension bridge at Singtam, also known as the Indreni bridge, which was entirely washed away. Further exacerbating the crisis, parts of the Teesta Dam at Chungthang, the largest hydropower project in Sikkim, were also washed away by the swollen river waters. This destruction has far-reaching implications for the state’s energy infrastructure. The flood also severely damaged sections of the National Highway (NH-10) in Melli, a border town between Sikkim and West Bengal. In response to the escalating situation, residents in the low-lying areas of Chungthang town and Singtam district in North Sikkim have been evacuated. With multiple sectors affected, from civilian lives to military installations and crucial infrastructure, the full scale of the catastrophe is still unfolding.

Strongest marine heat wave in 40 years off Canada’s East Coast - A severe marine heat wave was recorded off Canada’s East Coast this summer, according to data compiled by Fisheries and Oceans climate scientist Peter Galbraith. The event, lasting from the last three weeks of July to the first week of August, saw a weeklong temperature spike off Newfoundland averaging 6.7 °C (12.1 °F) above normal. Fisheries and Oceans climate scientist Peter Galbraith compiled the alarming data for the World Meteorological Organization, a United Nations agency tasked with monitoring extreme weather events globally. The surface temperatures reached unprecedented highs in several regions, including the Scotian Shelf, Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Newfoundland Shelf, and the Labrador Shelf. In July, the recorded ocean surface temperatures were 2 to 4 °C (3.6 to 7.2 °F) above normal — the warmest in the 41-year history of satellite data collection. Galbraith’s measurements showed that off Newfoundland’s Flemish Cap, where surface temperatures normally hover around 12 °C (53.6 °F), the temperature surged to 18.6 °C (65.5 °F). “Anything over like 1 °C (1.8 °F) is already off normal. So 6.5 °C (1.7 °F) is the largest single weekly anomaly for a fairly large area in the whole satellite record for our Eastern Canadian waters,” he said. The marine heat wave lasted an unusually long time, encompassing the last three weeks of July and the first week of August. Galbraith pointed out the rarity of the event’s spatial extent, covering the entire Atlantic zone off Canada’s East Coast. Typically, only parts of the Atlantic zone experience elevated temperatures, but this event was different. Marine heat waves are generally defined as periods where surface waters remain in the uppermost 10% of historical temperatures for five or more consecutive days. The maximum anomaly was 6.7 °C (12.1 °F) above the norm in the Atlantic, far surpassing a similar event in the Pacific where the maximum anomaly was only 3.5 °C (6.1 °F) above normal. DFO scientists have also reported an ongoing marine heat wave off British Columbia, which peaked in early August and covered 90% of Canada’s 320 km (200 miles) exclusive economic zone in the Pacific. While marine heat waves in the Pacific have become more common, the recent event in the Atlantic was classified as “unprecedented.” Notably, the adverse impacts of marine heat waves extend beyond immediate temperature anomalies. Previous marine heat waves have been linked to devastating effects such as algae blooms, coral bleaching, and local fish loss. However, a paper published in the scientific journal Nature on August 30 contained some optimistic data: bottom-dwelling fish showed surprising resilience during 238 marine heat waves recorded between 1993 and 2019. As for long-term trends, 2022 was recorded as the warmest year ever off Canada’s East Coast, breaking records set only nine years earlier. The recent summer’s marine heat wave was significant enough to potentially affect the overall average for 2023, said Galbraith.

Data confirms robust weakening of the Gulf Stream - A recently published study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters has revealed that the Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has weakened by approximately 4% over the past 40 years. Researchers state with 99% certainty that this is more than what would be expected from random variations, marking the first definitive evidence of significant change in the current.

• The Gulf Stream is a major ocean current located off the East Coast of the United States and a major part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). It carries a tremendous amount of seawater and along with it heat, carbon, and other ocean constituents. Because of this, the Gulf Stream plays an important role in weather and climate, influencing phenomena as seemingly unrelated as sea level along coastal Florida and temperature and precipitation over continental Europe.
• Recent studies have indicated that both the Gulf Stream and the AMOC are showing signs of weakening, which is cause for concern given their vital roles in regulating global and regional climates.
• The Gulf Stream and AMOC system together act as a global conveyor belt, redistributing heat and affecting weather patterns across the world. A weakening of these systems could have severe implications, such as more extreme weather conditions, including increased storms and heatwaves, and altered marine ecosystems. The Gulf Stream’s role in moderating the climate of Western Europe could be compromised, leading to colder winters, while a weakened AMOC could result in a cascade of climatic shifts far beyond the North Atlantic. Thus, the observed weakening of these oceanic currents isn’t just a regional issue but a global concern that may require coordinated international efforts to understand and address.

The Gulf Stream, a critical part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), plays a vital role in global weather and climate systems. Its weakening could have far-reaching implications, including changes in European surface air temperature and precipitation, shifts in coastal sea levels along the Southeastern U.S., and altered patterns of North Atlantic hurricane activity, study authors said. The study is based on a synthesis of thousands of data points collected from the Florida Straits, an area between the Florida Keys, Cuba, and The Bahamas. The region has long been the focus of ocean observation campaigns, dating back to the 1980s or earlier.To arrive at their conclusion, the researchers employed Bayesian modeling techniques to combine data from undersea cables, satellite altimetry, and in-situ observations. This probabilistic approach allowed them to articulate the uncertainty within the model, strengthening the study’s findings. The results consistently indicated a long-term weakening of the Gulf Stream, irrespective of which data sets were included or omitted from the analysis.While the study provides strong evidence of weakening, it does not identify the cause, leaving the question of whether this is due to climate change or natural variations open for future research. “While we can definitively say this weakening is happening, we are unable to say to what extent it is related to climate change or whether it is a natural variation,” said Chris Piecuch, the study’s lead author and a physical oceanographer with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.The study has been lauded as a significant milestone in oceanographic research. “I have been studying western boundary currents—primarily the Agulhas Current off South Africa—for 30 years and it is only now that we are able to observe a robust trend in one of these extraordinarily dynamic systems,” said Lisa Beal, a co-author of the article and a professor of Ocean Sciences at the University of Miami, Florida.The researchers emphasize the necessity of long-term observation systems to detect subtle changes in oceanic conditions. “This paper explicitly demonstrates the value of these long observing systems to tease out very subtle signals. In this case, we showed that we needed more than 30 years of data,” Piecuch added. The study is part of a larger six-year project funded by the National Science Foundation, aimed at extending the observational record of the Gulf Stream at the Florida Straits.Previous studies have found that AMOC is also weakening over time, but that it’s unlikely to collapse before the end of the century. However, a study published in Nature on July 25, 2023, marks the first time that researchers have tried to pin down when the AMOC could stop working — the authors said it could be anytime between 2025 and 2095.

Extraordinary September heat means 2023 is now on track to be the warmest year on record- 2023 is on course to be the hottest year on record, scientists warned on Thursday, following extraordinarily high temperatures in September and the hottest summer in human history.The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said global average temperatures for January through to September were 1.4 degrees Celsius higher than the preindustrial period of 1850 to 1900.This was just over 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than average and 0.05 degrees Celsius higher the equivalent period in 2016 — the current hottest year on record.Scientists at C3S said September logged the largest temperature anomalies of any year stretching back to 1940, with the month as a whole found to be a staggering 1.75 degrees Celsius warmer when compared to the preindustrial reference period.September’s temperature anomalies prompted one researcher to describe the findings as nothing less than “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas.”Extreme heat is fueled by the climate crisis, the chief driver of which is the burning of fossil fuels.“The unprecedented temperatures for the time of year observed in September — following a record summer — have broken records by an extraordinary amount,” Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said in a statement.“This extreme month has pushed 2023 into the dubious honour of first place — on track to be the warmest year and around 1.4°C above preindustrial average temperatures.”Burgess said that two months out from the COP28 climate conference, “the sense of urgency for ambitious climate action has never been more critical.”World leaders will convene in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates from Nov. 30 through to Dec. 12 for talks on how to address the worsening climate crisis.As had been widely expected, a major U.N. report published last month confirmed that the world is currently not on track to meet the long-term goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, a landmark accord that aims to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.The world has already warmed by around 1.1 degrees Celsius after over a century of burning fossil fuels as well as unequal and unsustainable energy and land use. Indeed, it is this temperature increase that is fueling a series of extreme weather events around the world.For Europe, scientists at C3S said September 2023 was the warmest September on record at more than 2.5 degrees Celsius higher than the 1991 to 2020 average and 1.1 degrees Celsius than September 2020, the previous warmest.C3S also said El Niño conditions continued to develop over the equatorial eastern Pacific.El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that contributes to higher temperatures across the globe. The U.N. weather agency declared the onset of El Niño on July 4, warning its return paves the way for a likely spike in global temperatures and extreme weather conditions.Pope Francis warned on Wednesday that “the world in which we live is collapsing and may be nearing the breaking point.”His comments followed a dire warning from U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres last month. Speaking at the U.N. headquarters in New York City in mid-September, Guterres said “humanity has opened the gates to hell.”“Horrendous heat is having horrendous effects,” he added. “Distraught farmers watching crops carried away by floods; Sweltering temperatures spawning disease; And thousands fleeing in fear as historic fires rage.”

More than 100 dolphins dead in Amazon as water hits 102 degrees Fahrenheit -- More than a hundred dolphins have been found dead in the Brazilian Amazon amid an historic drought and record-high water temperatures that in places have exceeded 102 degrees Fahrenheit.The dead dolphins were all found in Lake Tefé over the past seven days, according to the Mamirauá Institute, a research facility funded by the Brazilian Ministry of Science.The institute said such a high number of deaths was unusual and suggested record-high lake temperatures and an historic drought in the Amazon may have been the cause.The news is likely to add to the concerns of climate scientists over the effects human activity and extreme droughts are having on the region.“It’s still early to determine the cause of this extreme event but according to our experts, it is certainly connected to the drought period and high temperatures in Lake Tefé, in which some points are exceeding 39 degrees Celsius (102 degrees Fahrenheit),” the institute said in comments carried by CNN affiliate CNN Brasil.The Amazon River, the world’s largest waterway, is currently in the dry season, and several specimens of river fauna are also suffering from record-high temperatures.

Mass Extinction: Entire Branches on Tree of Life Are Dying, Scientists Warn -- Like the comet striking the dinosaurs – in slower motion, but just as deadly – human activity is hacking off entire branches from the tree of life, a new study confirms."It is changing the trajectory of evolution globally and destroying the conditions that make human life possible," ecologists warn in their new paper."It is an irreversible threat to the persistence of civilization and the livability of future environments for Homo sapiens."Over the past few months the sixth mass extinction has become devastatingly visible. We've witnessed mass seabird deaths, shores have been littered with droves of dead fish, and sea lions poisoned by heat-induced algal blooms. Last year entire populations of penguins failed to breed and for years now researchers have been investigating an alarming reduction in insect life. So ecologist Gerardo Ceballos from the National Autonomous University of Mexico and Stanford University conservation biologist Paul Ehrlich assessed species extinctions since 1500 CE and compared those through the past 500 million years. They found we've driven 73 genera of back-boned animals to extinction during the last 500 years. Genus is the taxonomic classification just above species, grouping together the most closely related organisms, much like siblings, in a family tree. This rate is 35 times higher than previous genus-level extinctions. Without human influence, it would have taken 18,000 years for the same number of genera to have met their end. Other studies have also found similarly high extinction rates for plant, fungi, and invertebrate life as well. "[The sixth mass extinction] is causing rapid mutilation of the tree of life, where entire branches (collections of species, genera, families, and so on) and the functions they perform are being lost," explain the researchers. The biosphere we live within is extremely interconnected, so loss of species groups that play particular functions within their interconnected-living web can have severe cascading consequences. "We and all other species have evolved together thriving within a stable tree of life," Ceballos and Ehrlich say, so the loss of entire ecological functions performed by groups of species directly impacts us too.

High-level emergency declared in Tenerife as wildfire forces 3 000 to evacuate from Santa Ursula and La Orotava - Tenerife authorities called a high-level emergency on Thursday, October 5, 2023, evacuating roughly 3 000 people from Santa Ursula and La Orotava, as firefighters tackled a wildfire, initially ignited on Wednesday and worsened by strong winds and high temperatures. Authorities in Tenerife evacuated approximately 3 000 residents overnight Thursday and requested assistance from the army’s Military Emergency Unit to manage the escalating crisis. Around 90 firefighters have been deployed to combat the blaze, which has been exacerbated by high temperatures and strong winds. According to Lope Afonso, the vice president of the regional government of Tenerife, 2 400 people were evacuated from Santa Ursula and an additional 600 from La Orotava as a precautionary measure. Despite the severity of the event, both of the island’s airports remain fully operational. Furthermore, the fire is centered away from the primary tourist areas, specifically in the mountainous northeast regions of Santa Ursula and La Orotava. Earlier in August, a wildfire—considered the largest in the history of the archipelago—had destroyed approximately 15 000 hectares (37 065 acres) of woodland surrounding Mount Teide, Spain’s highest peak. Fernando Clavijo, the Canary Islands regional leader, confirmed that while the August wildfire was brought under control, it was never fully extinguished. He noted that embers were still burning in the forest. Consequently, Clavijo indicated that the terrain, already scorched by the August fires, contained “less fuel,” suggesting that the current wildfire may not reach the catastrophic levels of the previous one.

Alert Level 3 over Mayon volcano, hazardous eruption within weeks or even days still possible, Philippines - PHIVOLCS maintains Alert Level 3 over the Mayon volcano, which means that it is currently in a relatively high level of unrest, and hazardous eruption within weeks or even days could still be possible. In 24 hours to 00:00 UTC on October 3, 2023, the Mayon Volcano Network recorded 6 volcanic earthquakes and 111 rockfall events. The lava flows have maintained their advances to approximately 3.4 km (2.1 miles) in Bonga (southeastern), 2.8 km (1.7 miles) in Mi-isi (south), and 1.1 km (0.7 miles) in Basud (eastern) Gullies. Rockfalls and pyroclastic flows (PDCs) generated by collapses of the lava flow margins as well as of the summit dome deposited debris still within four 4 km (2.5 miles) of the crater. Volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission averaged 1 390 tonnes/day on October 2. Short-term observations from electronic tilt and GPS monitoring indicate continued inflation of the northwestern upper slopes since the fourth week of July 2023. Meanwhile, electronic tilt measurements show slight deflation on the northwestern middle slope starting in the third week of September. Longer-term ground deformation parameters from EDM, precise leveling, continuous GPS, and electronic tilt monitoring indicate that Mayon is still generally inflated relative to baseline levels. PIVOLCS recommends that the 6 km (3.7 miles) radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) remain evacuated due to the danger of PDCs, lava flows, rockfalls, and other volcanic hazards. Increased vigilance against PDCs, lahars, and sediment-laden streamflows along channels draining the edifice is also advised. Heavy rainfall could generate channel-confined lahars and sediment-laden streamflows in channels where PDC deposits were emplaced. Civil aviation authorities must also advise pilots to avoid flying close to the volcano’s summit as ash from any sudden eruption can be hazardous to aircraft. Based on the current prevailing wind pattern, ash fall events may most likely occur on the south side of the volcano. A total of 9 876 families or 38 396 persons are affected in 26 barangays in Albay.

Asteroid 2023 SH7 flew past Earth at 0.1 LD - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2023 SH7 flew past Earth at a distance of 0.14 LD / 0.00036 AU (53 748 km / 33 397 miles) from the center of our planet at 16:50 UTC on September 25, 2023. This is the 68th known asteroid to fly past Earth since the start of the year and the 14th during the month of September. 2023 SH7 was first observed at GINOP-KHK, Piszkesteto, Hungary on September 26 — one day after it made a close approach to Earth. It belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 1.3 and 2.8 m (4.3 – 9 feet).

Dish Network fined for not properly disposing of satellite - In a first-of-its-kind penalty, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fined satellite television company Dish Network for not properly disposing of a satellite. The company was hit with a $150,000 penalty for not properly de-orbiting its EchoStar-7 satellite, and the FCC found the company liable. The FCC found that Dish violated the Communications Act, FCC rules and the company’s license. The EchoStar-7 was found to be flying “well below the elevation required by the terms” in the license. Flying at that level “could post orbital debris concerns,” the FCC said. To step up its space debris enforcement efforts, the FCC’s Enforcement Bureau has established a Space Bureau and a Space Innovation Agenda. “As satellite operations become more prevalent and the space economy accelerates, we must be certain that operators comply with their commitments,” said Loyaan A. Egal, FCC enforcement bureau chief, in a Monday statement. “This is a breakthrough settlement, making very clear the FCC has strong enforcement authority and capability to enforce its vitally important space debris rules.” FCC rules prohibit the use of any apparatuses for communications except when granted authorization. The rule is meant to prevent communications satellite operations from interfering with the FCC, minimizing the creation of space debris and ensuring “responsible end-of-mission satellite disposal.” Dish launched its EchoStar-7 satellite in 2002, and in 2012, the company agreed to bring it to its end-of-mission altitude of 300 kilometers above its operational location, the FCC said. The company estimated the satellite would run out of fuel in May 2022 and would make its end-of-mission move then. “However, in February 2022, Dish determined that the satellite had very little propellant left, which meant it could not follow the original orbital debris mitigation plan in its license,” the FCC said in a statement. The company retired the satellite 122 kilometers above its operational location, “well short” of the agreed-upon 300 kilometers. A spokesperson for Dish said the FCC has made no specific findings that the satellite’s position posed any safety concerns.

Montana appeals landmark climate change ruling in case brought by young advocates | --The state of Montana is set to appeal a landmark state court ruling that sided with youth climate activists who sued the state for contributing to climate change.Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen’s (R) office filed a notice of appeal Friday in the case Held v. Montana, which was decided by District Court Judge Kathy Seeley in August. A coalition of youth climate activists sued the state over a 2023 statute that exempted fossil fuel permitting from consideration of greenhouse gas output. Plaintiffs argued — and Seeley agreed — this violated their right under the Montana constitution to a “clean and healthful environment.”“We look forward to the argument before the Montana Supreme Court,” a spokesperson for Knudsen’s office told The Hill in an email.In the meantime, the state Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) announced last week that it will solicit Montanans’ suggestions on potential updates to the Montana Environmental Policy Act (MEPA), which still operates under decades-old administrative regulations. MEPA was the operative statute for the greenhouse gas rule that Seeley ruled against. “MEPA has been in the spotlight recently, particularly with the Held v. State decision earlier this summer,” Montana DEQ Director Chris Dorrington said in a statement. “We want to start a thoughtful dialogue about greenhouse gas emissions and other topics, and we are seeking input that is balanced and driven by sound science.”After a June trial, the first in the U.S. involving constitutional questions regarding the right to a healthy environment, Seeley ruled in favor of the activists. Knudsen’s office signaled at the time that it would appeal the decision, calling it “absurd” and saying the plaintiffs “found an ideological judge who bent over backward to allow the case to move forward.”The state court ruling did not establish a federal precedent, but experts have said it is likely toadd fuel to similar court efforts in the other states with some form of constitutional environmental protection — New York, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Nine more states had proposed environmental protection amendments as of 2023.

Europe Just Launched the World’s First Carbon Tariff. Will the United States Follow Suit? - Companies that want to do business in the European Union will soon have to pay extra if the carbon footprints of their products are too high.The EU on Sunday officially began phase one of its carbon tariff. The first-of-its-kind tax scheme could help reduce the climate-warming emissions of industries that are notoriously hard to decarbonize, including cement and steel manufacturing.Under the EU’s new policy, foreign companies must now report all the greenhouse gas emissions associated with certain imported goods: cement, steel, iron, aluminum, fertilizers, hydrogen fuel and electricity. Starting in 2026, any of those imports that don’t meet the bloc’s emissions standards will face an additional fee when crossing the border. Other goods will be considered for the tax in the coming years, the European Commission said.The tax policy has drawn criticism from countries like China and Russia, which argue it undermines the principles of free trade and worsens geopolitical tensions. Supporters say the program is necessary to put EU companies on an even playing field with nations that have lower environmental standards. They also say it will incentivize industries to more quickly reduce their carbon emissions and encourage other countries to follow suit by adopting their own carbon tariffs.The EU’s carbon tariff “is not about trade protection,” Paolo Gentiloni, the European economy commissioner, told Reuters. “It is about protecting the EU’s climate ambition and seeking to raise the level of climate ambition worldwide.”By law, the EU must reduce its emissions 55 percent below 1990 levels by 2030.

At a ‘Climate Convergence,’ Pennsylvania Environmental Activists Urge Gov. Shapiro and State Lawmakers to Do More to Curb Emissions - —Barbara Brandom, 73, a retired pediatric anesthesiologist, was one of about 45 speakers at the Pennsylvania Climate Convergence, a meeting of activists that urged the administration of Gov. Josh Shapiro, as well as state lawmakers, to step up efforts to regulate and legislate against greenhouse gas emissions. In Pennsylvania, cutting emissions would be heavily dependent on limiting the output of the natural gas industry, which produces the second-largest amount among U.S. states, after Texas.“We need aggressive action on climate, which means in Pennsylvania not just reducing our consumption but reducing our production,” said Karen Feridun, co-founder of the PA Better Path Coalition, an activist group that opposes hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, for natural gas, an issue that many speakers accused of worsening climate change. “We need to give people a chance to say, ‘This is what’s concerning me for future generations of my family.’ Even if they have never spent a day in the anti-fracking movement, they are worried, and they need to be heard, and they haven’t been,” she said.Speakers included a 10-year-old girl; several representatives of 412 Justice, a Pittsburgh group representing environmental justice communities; an anti-fracking activist from the village of Dimock in Susquehanna County, and the former head of the Environmental Health Project, a nonprofit that monitors the health effects of fracking in southwest Pennsylvania.Feridun spoke before an opening press conference in front of 10 ice sculptures of child figures that were steadily melting in unseasonably warm October sunshine outside the Pennsylvania Capitol building in Harrisburg.She accused Shapiro, a Democrat, of not taking climate change seriously, and of promoting the interests of the natural gas industry including a proposed hydrogen hub in western Pennsylvania and neighboring states. Shapiro has strongly backed building the plants which would produce and distribute hydrogen for making electric power and other industries, but would burn methane, a potent greenhouse gas, in the process.And she attacked last week’s report by a working group Shapiro appointed to weigh membership in the 12-state Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a cap-and-invest cooperative under which the states cap emissions from their power sectors and require power generators to buy “allowances” at periodic auctions for each ton of carbon they will emit above the cap. The group, which included environmentalists and industry representatives, agreed that efforts were needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but it stopped short of endorsing RGGI membership. Feridun called it “nibbling around the edges” of curbing power-sector carbon emissions. The Shapiro administration has promised to make the gas industry operate more safely, following a scathing grand jury report on the industry in 2021 when the governor was attorney general. The administration has also imposed millions of dollars in fines on Monsanto and Shell for pollution; updated an environmental justice policy, and is working to plug more than 200 abandoned oil and gas wells that produce some eight percent of the state’s methane emissions.Shapiro’s press secretary, Manuel Bonder, did not respond to activists’ claims that the administration is denying climate change and promoting fossil-fuel interests. But he said it is working to protect the environment while creating jobs in the oil and gas industry.

USA Requires Gas Furnaces to Have 95 Percent Efficiency by 2028 -The USA Department of Energy (DOE) has issued final energy saving standards for gas furnaces at residential homes to curb planet-warming emissions from these ubiquitous appliances by replacing old polluting models, as well as to lighten bills for consumers. "These standards, which take effect late 2028, require non-weatherized gas furnaces and those used in mobile homes to achieve an annual fuel utilization efficiency of 95 percent, conserving energy and improving residential heating", the DOE said in a press release. It expects the adoption of the standards to, over 30 years, cut $24.8 billion from energy bills and avoid 332 million metric tons of carbon emissions, equivalent to the total annual emissions of 42 million homes or about 34 percent of homes in the country. These standards would also avert 4.3 million metric tons of methane over the same period, equivalent to the combined yearly emissions of 14 million homes or around 29 coal plants, the DOE said. "As of 2022, residential gas furnaces account for approximately 19 percent of annual residential energy use in the United States", the DOE noted. Efficiency thresholds for residential gas furnaces were last updated some three decades ago. That version, published November 19, 2007 and enforced 2015, set an annual fuel utilization of 80 percent for non-weatherized gas furnaces and mobile home gas furnaces, 81 percent for weatherized ones and 82 percent for oil-run furnaces. The modernized standards will be "reducing waste by converting nearly all of the gas used into heat for the living space", the DOE said. "This standard is readily achievable by modern condensing furnaces, which use secondary heat exchangers to capture excess heat from the furnace’s exhaust gases". The department has now issued proposed or final energy efficiency standards for 24 product categories, it said. Its Building Technologies Office implements minimum energy conservation standards for over 60 categories of appliances and equipment. "As a result of these standards, American consumers saved $63 billion on their utility bills in 2015 alone", the DOE says on its website. "By 2030, cumulative operating cost savings from all standards in effect since 1987 will reach nearly $2 trillion. Products covered by standards represent about 90 percent of home energy use, 60 percent of commercial building use, and 30 percent of industrial energy use".

Democrats in Congress ask Biden for moratorium on carbon pipeline permits - (Reuters) - The United States should not permit any new carbon dioxide pipelines until updated federal safety regulations are finished, a dozen Democratic members of Congress said in a letter sent to President Joe Biden on Tuesday. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key element of Biden's climate agenda, but landowners along the routes of major CCS pipeline projects proposed in the Midwest are refusing to sign over land to build the pipelines in part due to safety concerns. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) is working on new safety regulations for carbon pipelines that it has said will be proposed in 2024. Biden should issue an executive order halting any federal permitting for new carbon pipelines until then, the members said, led by Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Jesús "Chuy" García of Illinois. "A moratorium is necessary to protect communities from the construction of pipelines that we know will soon be operated under outdated safety standards," the letter said. PHMSA moved to strengthen its carbon dioxide pipeline oversight after a 2020 carbon pipeline rupture in Mississippi hospitalized 45 people. Carbon dioxide is odorless and can cause dizziness, confusion, unconsciousness, and even suffocation depending on exposure levels. "New pipeline infrastructure will invariably put more communities in danger given the complexity of transporting CO2 thousands of miles with what could create dozens of points of entry and exit for CO2," the letter said. Summit Carbon Solutions, Wolf Carbon Solutions and Navigator CO2 Ventures together hope to run 3,580 miles (5,760 km) of carbon dioxide pipeline across the Midwest, capturing carbon emissions from ethanol and other industrial plants and transporting it to underground storage sites. The letter was endorsed by environmental organizations that are opposed to the pipeline projects, including Food & Water Watch and the Sierra Club and other progressive groups.

Warning of Poisonous Impacts, Omar and Garcia Lead Call for Moratorium on CO2 Pipelines -- Reps. Ilhan Omar and Chuy Garcia led a group of House Democrats on Tuesday in urging President Joe Biden to put a moratorium on federal permitting for new CO2 pipelines—infrastructure at the center of unproven carbon capture efforts—until robust safety regulations are finalized, warning that the current regulatory vacuum is a serious threat to public health."As an invisible and odorless asphyxiant, CO2 spewing from a ruptured pipeline can suffocate humans and animals without notice," Omar (D-Minn.), Garcia (D-Ill.), and 11 other lawmakers wrote in a letter to Biden. "Transporting CO₂ under the extremely high pressure required to maintain a supercritical fluid state can cause ruptures that 'unzip' a pipeline over long distances, allowing CO₂ to escapebefore the flow can be stopped."The House Democrats called on the president to use his executive authority to place a moratorium on federal CO2 pipeline permits until the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) completes work on safety regulations that the agency announced last year.The lawmakers noted that "current regulations do not cover pipelines transporting CO2 as a gas or subcritical liquid, and are tailored to address the transport of hydrocarbon hazardous liquids, such as crude oil and refined petroleum products, which carry vastly different safety risks.""New pipeline infrastructure will invariably put more communities in danger given the complexity of transporting CO2 thousands of miles."There are currently around 5,000 miles of carbon dioxide pipelines in the U.S., according to the PHMSA, and analysts say that most of the existing pipelines are used for enhanced oil recovery—a process that involves pumping captured CO2 into oil wells in an effort to produce more oil.But the Biden administration is pushing for an expansion of CO2 pipelines as part of what climate advocates say is a misguided and irresponsible buildout of carbon capture and storage infrastructure that's supported by the fossil fuel industry.The bipartisan infrastructure law that Biden signed in 2021 boosts a tax credit that will incentivize the proliferation of CO2 pipelines, which have prompted major safety concerns and opposition from local communities. Jesse Jenkins, a professor of engineering at Princeton University, toldNPR that the U.S. could have more than 65,000 miles of CO2 pipelines within the next few decades.The Democratic lawmakers point to NPR's reporting in their letter, writing that their concerns about the safety of the carbon dioxide infrastructure "are exemplified by the 2020 rupture of a pipeline, operated by Denbury Gulf Coast Pipelines, transporting CO2 in Satartia, Mississippi."Earlier this year, NPRdocumented the harrowing experience of Satartia residents impacted by the rupture. One emergency worker said the terrifying scene "looked like you were going through the zombie apocalypse."

Norway Receives Two Applications for CO2 Storage in North Sea - Four companies have put forward two bids for acreage in the Norwegian North Sea to store carbon dioxide (CO2). The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) said in a media release that the applications were submitted to the authorities according to regulations relating to the exploitation of subsea reservoirs on the continental shelf for CO2 storage and transportation. The NPD has mapped potential storage facilities for CO2 on the Norwegian shelf, coming up with an atlas. The atlas shows that it is possible to store more than 80 billion metric tons of CO2 on the shelf, which is equivalent to the current level of Norwegian CO2 emissions, for 1,000 years, the regulator said. According to the NPD, the authorities have awarded a first permit to exploit an area for injection and storage of CO2 in January. The awarded area is located near the Troll field in the North Sea. In September 2018, the Northern Lights project handed in an application to inject and store CO2 underground on the Norwegian continental shelf. Global energy majors Equinor ASA, Shell PLC and TotalEnergies SE are behind the Northern Lights project. Equinor said that the Northern Lights project is part of the Norwegian full-scale carbon capture and storage project called Longship. The full-scale project includes the capture of CO2 from industrial sources and the shipping of liquid CO2 to an onshore terminal on the Norwegian west coast. From there, the liquified CO2 will be transported by pipeline to an offshore storage location subsea in the North Sea for permanent storage.

Climate models underestimate storage, renewables progress, overstate net-zero costs: study - “Plummeting” prices for solar power and storage over the last 10 years have made a net-zero transition more feasible than current climate scenario models indicate, according to researchers with the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, or MCC. In a new study, MCC found that “two key options for rapid decarbonization remain systematically undersampled in models that underpin [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] scenarios” – strong growth in intermittent renewables, and widespread adoption of efficient end-use technologies. “Some calculations even suggest that the world’s entire energy consumption in 2050 could be completely and cost-effectively covered by solar technology and other renewables,” said Felix Creutzig, lead author of the study. “This is an extremely optimistic scenario – but it illustrates that the future is open.” The study, due to appear in the November issue of Energy Research & Social Science and made available online Sept. 22, said that many existing models “maintain a preference for inefficient combustion, in particular by relying on coal and bioenergy.” “Models would benefit from updated cost assumptions, higher resolution on granular end-use technologies, higher resolution on sector coupling, and an overall consideration of demand-side solutions,” the researchers said. In a release about the study, Berlin-based MCC said that batteries currently cost less than 100 dollars per kilowatt hour – significantly less than a 2021 publication predicted they would cost by 2030. The cost of battery storage has fallen 85% over the past ten years, while the cost of solar has fallen 87%, MCC said. In addition, climate stabilization scenarios have underestimated the likely rate of global solar growth, the study said. One 2019 study estimated that solar would reach global levels of 20 to 50 exajoules per year by 2050, while the researchers say that solar technology experts expect solar could be delivering 125 to 350 exajoules per year by then. The researchers speculated that solar innovation has been underestimated due to its nature as a granular technology, similar to demand-side technologies like heat pumps, lighting, appliances, windows and batteries. “Granular technologies learn faster and become adopted faster, because they involve lower risk, involve many more iterations and thus opportunities for improvement, and are suitable in a much broader variety of adoption contexts,” they said. As a result, they show “faster innovation dynamics.” Dan O'Brien, vice president of direct origination at DSD Renewables, said the study is accurate “given the changes we have seen internationally and domestically in pricing, technology, equipment costs, and public adoption of both renewable energy as well as further electrification of technologies like transportation.” “Granted, there are challenges that all countries face in deployment that low equipment pricing cannot overcome,” he said. “There are bottlenecks created by lack of qualified labor to meet demand, infrastructure and interconnection upgrades and extended queue timelines, available land or adequate built environment, and ever-changing policy.” Despite these challenges, O’Brien expects the renewables sector and its market participants will continue to grow.

No Energy Transition Unless Tech Can Make It Cost Competitive: BlackRock - Posted by Yves Smith - Yves here. This post makes one of the several points that Green New Deal and other Disney-colored no/low pain energy transition types pointedly avoid: that rising energy costs are not only unpopular but also cause political instabilty. Normura looked at food and energy costs as a percentage of total household costs in the Middle East around the time of Arab Spring, and them rising to an unaffordable level for too many on the bottom was a good predictor of large-scale protests. Here, Larry Fink of BlackRock points out that greener energy sources are often higher cost in to less affluent citizens and countries. Even if the running rate might be cheaper, the cost of new equipment, starting with electric vehicles, is a hurdle many can’t surmount. And as we saw before UK energy subsidies kicked in, the cost of charging a car in the UK was higher at points in later 2022 than gassing up its internal combustion engine counterpart. Fink uses the example of emerging economies likely to use more coal rather than convert much to green energy at current cost levels. He also alludes to the fact that one of the reasons the expected energy crunch didn’t materialize last winter was many households in Poland used their coal burning stoves….and apparently burned even more wood and other combustibles than usual. Note that in Poland, until 2022, the government subsidized newer gen coal stoves as environmentally friendly. Admittedly, households that took up the Clean Energy program were more likely to convert to gas furnaces and heat pumps, but still…The article also depicts the EU as more able to bear the [presumed higher until Something Is Done] costs of clean energy which is narrowly true but conveniently sidesteps the big cost, that of deindustrialization. And there is seldom enough talk of current inadequate grid capacity and the question of the environmental costs of battery storage and other critical components of the presumed green buildout. Originally published at OilPrice: There will be no energy transition unless we can find new technologies that bring down the cost of renewables, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told Bloomberg’s Dani Burger on Friday at the Berlin Global Diague forum. “We are not going to have a transition unless we can find technologies to bring down the competitive cost of renewables. We cannot do that.” Fink said, adding that BlackRock conducted a survey that showed 57% of their global investors are planning to put more money into decarbonization technologies.“We saw what happened with elevated energy prices just two years in Germany and in Europe. You can’t have a transition.” Fink argued that when energy prices go up, emerging nations use more coal—because “life is more important than the future.”“We need to reimagine finance,” Fink said, so finance can find ways of bringing billions and even trillions to emerging nations to help them decarbonize.On the point that energy insecurity can be impossible for emerging nations to manage, other financial firms seem to agree. In late 2022, during Europe’s energy crisis, Europe’s energy security issues drove near energy poverty in the emerging world, Credit Suisse energy analyst Saul Kavonic said. While European countries and others may be able to pay a premium for energy, emerging nations cannot, and some already choose blackouts on a fairly regular basis because they can’t afford even today’s energy prices. And if they can afford some form of energy, it’s the lowest cost energy, such as coal, despite any green ambitions they might have. Larry Fink oversees $10 trillion in assets for BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager. BlackRock was ridiculed by some late last year for calling on companies to invest through an environmental, social, and governance lens.

Grid operators oppose FERC conference on valuing reliability benefits of batteries, generators - The PJM Interconnection and other grid operators oppose a request that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission hold a technical conference to examine ways to improve how to measure the value power plants, energy storage and other resources provide to grid reliability.The regional variation in how independent system operators and regional transmission organizations approach capacity accreditation makes the topic ill-suited for a national conference intended to drive “consensus,” the ISO/RTO Council told FERC on Monday.The American Clean Power Association’s petition for a technical conference was supported by renewable energy trade groups such as Advanced Energy United, as well as Southern California Edison, Colorado Public Utilities Commission Chair Eric Blank, the Institute for Policy Integrity at the New York University School of Law and others.The ISO/RTO Council was the only group to oppose holding the conference, according to comments filed in response to the ACP’s petition.A technical conference would likely impede capacity accreditation issues being discussed by New England ISO, the New York Independent System Operator, PJM, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, the Southwest Power Pool and the California independent System Operator, the council said.“The commission should continue to afford each region the latitude to develop an approach to capacity accreditation tailored to address its most pressing reliability needs,” the council said.In backing comments by the Electric Power Supply Association, Calpine said it didn’t oppose the conference.“Improving capacity accreditation without delay is critical for reliability and market efficiency to support just and reasonable rates for consumers,” Calpine said.The Houston-based independent power producer said it “sees value” in discussing accreditation issues, but any conference should not delay ongoing efforts to improve capacity accreditation measures.A forum to discuss the experiences and best practices among regions would be “extremely useful,” according to SoCal Ed.“California’s experience has shown that renewable resources, energy storage, and hybrid resources play an important and growing role in grid operations, and that a broader discussion on their capacity values would benefit the industry,” the Edison International subsidiary said.However, like the grid operators,SoCal Ed also cautioned FERC against creating uniform policies or principles on capacity accreditation, pointing to wide regional differences across the United States.

Conservation' proposal for SW Wyoming would limit large energy projects - Undeveloped areas will be largely off-limits to industrial-scale energy projects — be they fossil fuels, trona, hard minerals, wind, solar or a combination — under the Bureau of Land Management’s preferred “conservation” scenario for managing 3.5 million acres of federal land in southwest Wyoming, some observers say.That’s primarily because the BLM’s conservation priority spelled out in “Alternative B” — one of four management scenarios in the Rock Springs draft environmental impact statement guiding its resource management plan — would vastly expand “exclusion areas” for rights-of-way, hampering greenfield development for projects that require new roads, pipelines and electric transmission lines.Nearly 2.5 million acres — 71% of the planning area — would be excluded from consideration for new rights-of-way. That’s a 481% increase in acreage off-limits to things like maintained roads, power lines and pipelines. BLM officials say it’s also a means to inhibit permanent industrial facilities in other areas — a state-owned land section, for example — because they typically require infrastructure like power lines and pipelines. “Conservation, that’s what’s driving that particular alternative,” Wyoming BLM spokesman Brad Purdy told WyoFile. “So there would be less development overall. “Rights-of-way,” Purdy continued, “that’s how we [permit] solar. It’s how we do roads, how we do power lines. I think all of those types of things would be impacted.”The proposed rights-of-way exclusion areas take into account conservation values weighed against “marginal” energy yield opportunities in yet-to-be-developed areas, according to the BLM. Legislative leaders, however, say it’s another example of the agency’s failure to find a balance that doesn’t harm Wyoming’s “bedrock industries.”The BLM’s preferred conservation plan places “the interests of the people of this state in peril” and ought to be removed from consideration, Senate President Ogden Driskill (R-Devils Tower) and House Speaker Albert Sommers (R-Pinedale) wrote in a Sept. 28letter to BLM Rock Springs Field Office Manager Kimberlee Foster.They’re also asking for a 120-day extension for public comments. Currently, the deadline to submit comments on the draft EIS is Nov. 16.Gov. Mark Gordon has called for a “complete withdrawal” of the draft environmental document, describing the BLM’s proposal as a “federal fiat.”Meantime, BLM officials say whatever the agency puts forward as its preferred alternative in the final draft early next year will likely be modified.

How Effective Are Electric Vehicles In Reducing Emissions? --Battery electric vehicles (BEV) are the clear winner when trying to reduce emissions in the transportation sector, according to Rystad Energy research. Despite incurring higher emissions in the manufacturing process of electric vehicles and an enduring reliance on fossil fuel power generation in many countries, the positive environmental impact of switching to a BEV over the vehicle’s lifetime is unmistakable. Our analysis shows that battery-powered vehicles contribute at most half the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) of diesel or gasoline cars across their lifecycle, regardless of the country of operation. Even in countries where the power grid is dominated by fossil fuels, battery-powered cars emit about 50% of the CO2e of an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. As renewable sources replace coal and gas-fired generation, emissions related to the operation of BEVs could drop by 86%.Our in-depth research of lifecycle BEV and ICE vehicle emissions considers every stage of the manufacturing process and the vehicle’s operation. This includes the manufacturing of the vehicle’s body, known as body in white (BIW), powertrain assembly, maintenance, fuel and electricity-related emissions, and battery production for BEVs. We are conscious that there are often societal and humanitarian impacts associated with EV manufacturing, battery production, and associated mining. However, this research is purely focused on the emissions comparison between battery electric and traditional-fuel vehicles.Based on the current power generation mix in China, the lifecycle emissions of a BEV are about 39 tonnes of CO2e versus almost 85 tonnes for an ICE vehicle. The difference in the US is even starker. A BEV emits 42 tonnes of CO2e across its life in the US, 58% lower than a gasoline or diesel vehicle that emits more than 100 tonnes. Of these totals, emissions related to the extraction, refining, and burning of fossil fuels contribute about 90% of all ICE emissions. The breakdown of emissions across a battery-powered vehicle’s life is directly tied to its electricity consumption and how that power is generated.

'Not-ESG Friendly': New Panasonic EV Battery Plant In Kansas To Be Powered By Coal -- Panasonic's new battery plant in Kansas will require an amount of energy equivalent to that used by a small city, forcing a nearby utility to halt the shutdown of a coal-fired power plant. This has sparked criticism that electric vehicle production and electric vehicles aren't 'ESG-friendly.' According to The Kansas City Star, citing documents filed by power company Evergy with the Kansas Corporation Commission, Panasonic's 4-million-square-foot plant in Johnson County will double the utility's load and require two new substations and upgrades to 31 miles of transmission lines. Documents show Evergy will have to keep a Lawrence coal-fired power plant online until 2028 to meet the new load at the EV battery plant that will be ramped up as production begins at the end of 2025/early 2026. The utility plans to transition from coal to natural gas by the decade's end. "Beyond the sheer magnitude of load and load factor, Panasonic's construction schedule, and, in turn, its energy needs, are being planned on a very aggressive schedule. With energy needs starting to ramp in 2024 and full load requirements by 2026, there is urgency to procure capacity and energy to fulfill the expected energy usage schedule," said Kayla Messamore, Evergy's vice president of strategy and planning. Currently, no other power generation source in the area can supply enough on-demand power to the Panasonic battery plant. In testimony from Ryan Mulvany, Evergy's vice president of distribution, he said the plant will demand approximately 200 to 250 megawatts (or the equivalent of a small city). Despite the $4 billion cost of the factory, the Japanese company is "poised to get as much as $6.8 billion from provisions in last year's federal Inflation Reduction Act," the local paper said in July. The company is expected to receive over $8 billion in federal, state, and local incentives and support the plant in Johnson County. Zack Pistora, a lobbyist with the Kansas Sierra Club, called the EV battery plant powered by coal a "shame": "Not only are we squandering an opportunity to access local Kansas clean energy resources that invest in our state, but it also is not doing anyone else a favor as far as more greenhouse gas pollution."

Largest EV Charging Station In World Powered By Diesel-Powered Generators - The Harris Ranch Tesla Supercharger station is an impressive beast. With 98 charging bays, the facility in Coalinga, California, is the largest charging station in the world.In 2017, Tesla CEO said that all Superchargers in the automaker’s network were being converted to solar. “Over time, almost all will disconnect from the electricity grid,” Musk posted on X, formally known as Twitter. Superchargers charge vehicles up to the 80% sweet spot in as little as 20 minutes, but to provide that kind of power for nearly 100 bays takes something solar can’t provide — diesel generators. Investigative journalist Edward Niedermeyer discovered that the station was powered by diesel generators hidden behind a Shell station. Reporters at SF Gate tried to find out how much of the station's electricity was from the generators, but couldn’t get a response from Tesla. The station isn’t connected to any dedicated solar farms, which means that absent the diesel generators, the station is powered by California’s grid. According to the U.S. Energy and Information Administration, in June 2023, natural gas supplied nearly 5,000 megawatt hours of electricity in California, whereas non-hydroelectric renewables supplied about 7,250 megawatt hours. Energy analyst and writer David Blackmon, author of the “Energy Transition Absurdities,” told Cowboy State Daily that the use of diesel-powered generators is not limited to the Harris Ranch station. He used to shop at a Whole Foods in Houston. The company had installed a charging station in front of the store for its customers. “It was the best parking spot in the lot, and it crowded out a bunch of handicap spaces,” Blackmon said. He said there were diesel generators behind the store and whenever someone was using the chargers, the generators would kick on.

As EV sales surge and cars get heavier, parking garages have to change - Driving is changing. Today, hybrids and pure electric vehicles are a common sight around the world, and the overall size and heft of cars — whether they’re fully electric or use internal combustion engines — is increasing.From the accessibility of EV charging points to noise levels, new designs and technologies have already created a range of issues that will need to be addressed in the years ahead. Parking garages (known as multistory car parks in the U.K.) are one area where the proliferation of EVs and bigger vehicles is expected to have a major impact.Earlier this year, the London-based Institution of Structural Engineers published updated design guidance for car parks.The wide-ranging document covers all structures where cars can be parked — including those on multiple levels, underground or within residential and office buildings — and how they are designed, built and maintained. The guidance has been written for all stakeholders involved in car park design.One potential issue relates to the load of what we drive. According to the institution, the average vehicle’s weight has increased from 1.5 metric tons in 1974 to nearly 2 metric tons in 2023.In a statement, it said the reason behind the weight increase was “due to electric and hybrid batteries and the size of cars increasing.”“This extra load and the changing fire safety requirements are all considerations not just for new car parks, but for existing structures too,” it added.Speaking to CNBC, Chris Whapples, a fellow of the institution and contributor to the guidance as an author and overseeing consultant, said some of the market’s top-end executive cars and long-range SUVs were now coming in at over three metric tons.When the guidance was released in June, there was much focus on the potential collapse of some car parks under the weight of heavier vehicles.“It is something we have to consider, but we mustn’t be too alarmist about it,” Whapples told CNBC.

How US Airlines Fell Behind Europe on Sustainable Jet Fuel -- United Airlines presents itself as the unrivaled leader in cleaner jet fuel. A recent ad campaign featuring the garbage-can-dwelling Oscar the Grouch as the airline’s new “chief trash officer” publicizes its commitment to turn banana peels and old socks into less-polluting jet fuel. In another ad, the company says it’s “investing in more sustainable aviation fuel production than any other airline in the world.” Chicago-based United Airlines Holdings Inc., like the rest of the aviation industry, is grappling with its enormous climate impact. United expects to burn more than 4 billion gallons of jet fuel this year, which will spout about 40 million tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere—more than double the pollution of all the cars in the company’s home state of Illinois.Global aviation generates 2.5% of man-made CO2, and it’s one of the industries that can’t be rapidly electrified. As the planet-warming pollution from driving vehicles and running power plants declines, the carbon toll of flying is only expected to rise. By 2050 aviation could exceed 20% of humanity’s total carbon footprint.That’s why airlines have focused on slashing emissions by dramatically increasing the use of sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, made from things such as used cooking oil, animal fat and agriculture waste. Planes powered by these petroleum alternatives release far fewer heat-trapping emissions than those using fossil fuel.Only a half-dozen companies make commercial quantities of SAF, which accounts for about 0.1% of the world’s jet-fuel supply and costs at least twice as much to produce. Almost every major airline has pledged to use at least 10% sustainable jet fuel by 2030. For most, including United, this would amount to a hundredfold increase in only seven years.United has publicly embraced the enormity of the challenge. In an interview, Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby sounds almost like an environmental activist at times, describing himself as an “admitted climate change geek going all the way back to college.” He’s concerned that the public still doesn’t fully grasp the looming dangers of our warming planet and says airlines must play a “leading role” to help solve the crisis.But United’s leadership in sustainable fuels hasn’t matched its rhetoric. United consumed 2.9 million gallons of SAF last year, representing 0.08% of its fuel supply. That puts the company slightly ahead of its US counterparts but far behind several airlines in Europe, which have to prepare to meet new requirements that don’t exist in the US. Air France-KLM has more than quadrupled United’s total by using 13.9 million gallons of SAF, making it the world leader by volume. Scandinavian Airlines, on the other hand, used 0.96% SAF, the highest percentage among passenger airlines and more than 10 times United’s percentage. The lackluster performance in the US shines a spotlight on starkly different approaches to spurring SAF around the world. European Union rules will require 2% SAF usage by 2025, 20% by 2035, and 70% by 2050. Governments in the UK and Japan have proposed similar rules. Many European airlines, including Air France-KLM, have supported the EU regulatory approach. Australia’s biggest carrier, Qantas Airways Ltd., recently called on the government to introduce its own requirements “to help kick-start local production of SAF.”United and other US carriers, though, have staunchly opposed any such mandates on their home turf, arguing that the airlines are already voluntarily pursuing sustainable fuels and that requiring their use before adequate supplies exist will cause prices to soar. “We don’t want flying to become a luxury commodity,” says Helen Giles, managing director of environmental sustainability at Southwest Airlines Co.

Huff ‘n’ puff geothermal fracking: Earth batteries at 200% efficiency Combining a pressure battery with geothermal power could unlock both cheap energy storage and shallow geothermal power Sage Geosystems has pioneered a new form of cheap energy storage that uses the Earth as a giant bellows, pumping water into underground fractures, then letting it squirt back up at 70% efficiency – or 200% efficiency if you also harvest heat energy. The “huff & puff” method, as it’s known, is adapted here from a similar technique that’s used in oil production, where a fluid – often steam – is injected into a shale oil deposit and left there for several hours to heat the oil, reducing its viscosity and making it easier to pump out. See Also: Putin’s man in Ankara: Erdogan – Analysis Sage, however, uses dense drilling mud, forced at high pressure into rock deep underground at disused oil wells, to push slim fractures apart, then pumps water in, again at high pressure, to keep the fractures “inflated.” This is done using excess renewable energy collected during daylight hours, and then a valve is closed to lock the water in.

ERCOT Seeking to Bulk Up Winter Generation Capacity to Avoid Elliott-Like Shortages - The Texas grid operator is looking to add 3,000 MW of generation capacity for this winter to ensure the state is prepared for energy emergency conditions. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which serves about 90% of the state, issued a request for proposal (RFP) to increase operating reserves from Dec. 1 through Feb. 29, which is the winter peak load season. “Our request to procure capacity in advance of winter is part of our continued commitment to maintain grid reliability and resiliency,” CEO Pablo Vegas said. “ERCOT is not projecting energy emergency conditions this winter season, but we want to be prepared and ensure all available tools are readily available if needed.”

California Partnering with Natural Gas Suppliers to Prepare for Solar Eclipse - Sunny California will see its skies darken for about three hours in mid-October by a rare annular eclipse, and officials now are working overtime with regional authorities, as well as natural gas interstate and intrastate suppliers, to ensure there are adequate resources available to make up for the expected solar shortfall. An all-hands effort is underway, led by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), for the partial eclipse, which is set to darken large swaths of the state beginning at 8 a.m. PT on Oct. 14. As the eclipse moves east, maximum obscuration in California is estimated to arrive at 9:30 a.m. “On the eclipse day, partial obscuration of the sun will reduce output of rooftop solar and increase load by 4,843 MW or 29.6% at 9:15 a.m. relative to normal...

USA Coal Output Up Last Year but Demand Down as Prices Rose: EIA -- Coal production in the USA grew 2.9 percent in 2022 to 594.2 million short tons (MMst) compared to 2021 but consumption fell 5.5 percent year on year to 515.5 MMst amid a surge in prices, according to official data released recently. Last year had 548 producing coal mines, 36 more than the prior year's, with an average capacity utilization of 68 percent, compared to 66.1 percent in 2021, the country's Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Annual Coal Report published Tuesday. The Western region accounted for 334.8 MMst of the total national coal output last year, up 1.9 percent year over year. Wyoming, the region's biggest coal-producing state, saw a 2.5 percent increase to 244.7 MMst. "Other large producing states in the basin include North Dakota, where production increased by 0.8 percent to 26.7 MMst; Colorado, where production increased by 7.7 percent to 12.8 MMst; and Montana, where production decreased by 1.2 percent to 28.2 MMst", the report stated. Meanwhile Texas was the top destination state for coal 2022, receiving around 58 MMst of volumes from USA mines, according to the EIA's separate Annual Coal Distribution Report simultaneously released. However, amid soaring coal prices, domestic demand fell, with a 28.6 MMst decrease to 472.8 MMst in the electric power sector, which comprised about 91.7 percent of the total consumption last year, the Annual Coal Report said. Consumption in the industrial, coke, and commercial and institutional sectors dropped 3.5 percent to 42.7 MMst against 2021. The total average sales price of coal from domestic mines climbed 49.4 percent from 2021 to $54.46 per short ton. "The average sales price of thermal coal in 2022 increased by 33.7 percent from 2021 to $34.57 per short ton, and the average sales price of metallurgical coal in 2022 increased by 72.9 percent from 2021 to $262.72 per short ton", read the Annual Coal Report. "The average sales price of coal from surface mines increased by 37.0 percent to $29.20 per short ton, and the average sales price of coal from underground mines increased by 59.5 percent to $96.47 per short ton". While domestic consumption slid, exports inched up one MMst to 86 MMst year on year with Europe the leading market accounting for 33.6 MMst. "Steam coal exports accounted for 45.9 percent (39.5 MMst) of the total, and metallurgical coal accounted for 54.1 percent (46.5 MMst)", the Annual Coal Report said. Coal reserves in the USA that are technologically and economically feasible to extract based on producer data fell to 11,737 MMst at yearend 2022 from 12,282 MMst at the end of 2021. "Although declines were reported for most states, increases were reported for Alabama, Eastern Kentucky, Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia", the Annual Coal Report said. In contrast to the domestic decline of coal, USA consumption and export of natural gas grew a combined 34.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) or 43 percent from 2012 to 2022, the EIA earlier reported. “Increased natural gas-fired electric power generation was the second-most significant factor in natural gas demand growth because of coal-to-gas switching and rising demand for air conditioning”, the government agency said June 27. Natural gas power generation totaled nearly 1.58 billion megawatt-hours (MWh) 2021, compared to about 1.01 billion MWh 2011, according to the EIA’s latest annual electricity report, published November 7, 2022. In contrast coal’s share of the mix slumped to approximately 898 million MWh 2021, its lowest since at least 2011, when coal generation stood at over 1.73 billion MWh. In 2022 the retirement of coal-run power plants, lower-than-average coal stocks and relatively high coal prices drove an eight percent year-on-year increase in the consumption of natural gas by the electricity sector in the USA to 12.118 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), the EIA said in its monthly natural gas report released May 31, 2023. Operators of coal-fired power mills retired 11 gigawatts (GW) on a yearly average from 2015 to 2020, dipping to 5.6 GW in 2021 and rebounding to 11.5 GW 2022, the EIA reported February 7, 2023. “This year, power plant owners and operators plan to retire 8.9 GW of coal-fired capacity, which is 4.5 percent of the total coal-fired capacity at the start of the year”, it said. Natural gas consumption across sectors in the USA in 2022 averaged 88.5 Bcfd, the highest annual figure since records began 1949, according to the May report. The increase of five percent or 4.5 Bcfd that year compared to 2021 is also the second-fastest growth year on year since 2013, the report showed.

Baltimore climate activists are fighting big coal, and winning - South Baltimore is on a peninsula surrounded by water, highways and train tracks. It's mostly made up of residential row houses, small yards, schools, rec centers and parks. It's also often thought of as a place to avoid — folks are taught to be careful of or even avoid South Baltimore. There was a mass shooting this past July in the Brooklyn neighborhood of South Baltimore, and another in early September. Taysia Thompson, 17, is a part of a group of student activists fighting against a very different kind of danger in their neighborhood: air pollution and climate change. Lots of 18-wheeler trucks with their diesel exhaust and noise pass through the neighborhood. Curtis Bay is also home to a junkyard where they crush cars, an old landfill, chemical manufacturing plants, and mountains of coal. These are not the kinds of neighbors anyone wants, and that's why — all over the country — polluters like these often end up in neighborhoods like South Baltimore, with mostly working class, poor people and people of color.The mountains of coal are the focus of a growing opposition movement called Free Your Voice, led by South Baltimore teenagers — young people of color who are spearheading a call for climate justice."I didn't know that I was inhaling or like, living near this like, coal pier," says Vilma Gutierrez, 16, one of the Free Your Voice members. "And I actually wanted to do something about it. So we are, finally."There's the immediate pollution Vilma and the residents of South Baltimore are breathing in today: Coal releases a fine, black dust that's small enough to get into people's lungs. It makes respiratory diseases worse, or can even cause disease and premature death if you're breathing it in day after day. And there's the greenhouse gas emissions that will affect us all later after the coal is exported and burned. To avoid catastrophic global warming, scientists say humans need to stop burning coal.The teens of Free Your Voice I met along with my colleague and NPR climate correspondent Rebecca Hersher are the next iteration in a youth-led movement that has been going on for more than 10 years. That movement started at the local high school, called Benjamin Franklin.Shashawnda Campbell co-founded Free Your Voice in 2011, when they took on their first fight: A company proposed building the country's largest waste incinerator less than a mile from Benjamin Franklin High School.Incinerators generate electricity by burning trash, and in the process they release hundreds of pounds of mercury and lead each year, plus soot that can get into people's lungs. On top of that, the incinerator would have added traffic and exhaust fumes from the tailpipes of trucks carrying in the waste and carrying out the burned ash.Shashawnda and her fellow students went door to door, warning their neighbors about the dangers of the project.

White House prohibiting official travel to fossil fuel conferences, internal memo shows -- The White House is prohibiting senior administration officials from traveling for international energy engagements that promote carbon-intensive fuels, including oil, natural gas and coal, Fox News Digital has learned.The guidance — which originated from the White House National Security Council (NSC) — was revealed in a Department of Energy (DOE) memo issued internally to agency staff on Sept. 15 and obtained by Fox News Digital. The memo was authored by Deputy Secretary of Energy David Turk who outlined travel restrictions and stated officials are required to obtain approval from the NSC before attending any global energy engagement."This guidance sets out a presumption that agencies and departments will pursue international energy engagement that advances clean energy projects," Turk wrote in the memo. "It also outlines a process for seeking limited exceptions to pursue carbon-intensive engagements on a justified geostrategic imperative or energy-for-development/energy access basis.""The guidance rules out any U.S. Government ‘engagement related to unabated or partially abated coal generation,’" he continued. "Carbon-intensive international energy engagements are those 'directly related and dedicated to the production, transportation, or consumption of carbon-intensive fuels that would lead to additional greenhouse gas emissions.'"According to the memo, carbon-intensive fossil fuels include coal, oil and natural gas.,In addition, the memo notes that the guidance became effective in November 2021 and applies to all international energy engagements. Turk issued a separate memo in early April 2022, which first outlined how the DOE would implement the NSC guidance and stated that energy engagements that promote carbon-intensive fuels may only be exempt if they advance national security or are essential to support energy access in vulnerable areas.Turk's September memo updated that guidance, stating that for all future engagements, "Departments and Agencies are required to submit exemption justifications to the NSC and receive NSC concurrence before proceeding with a covered engagement."The DOE referred Fox News Digital to the NSC, which didn't respond to multiple requests for comment.

Ohio commission could soon decide whether to allow fracking under state parks, wildlife areas ... – WVXU --Hydraulic fracturing has been used for decades in Ohio for oil and gas production. Now a new law paves a clearer path for fracking under state-owned lands. Last week an Ohio Department of Natural Resources panel voted to let companies bid on rights to drill in four parcels of state-owned land, but delayed a vote on drilling in state parks. This comes after a Cleveland.com investigation revealed dozens of people whose names appeared on pro-fracking letters say they never signed the letters.On Cincinnati Edition, we discuss the latest bids for drilling on state-owned lands and the fracking industry in Ohio. Guests:

• Jake Zuckerman, reporter, Cleveland.com and the Cleveland Plain Dealer
• Cathy Cowan Becker, Save Ohio Parks steering committee member
• Rob Brundrett, president, Ohio Oil and Gas Association

Tune in live at noon ET M-F. Call 513-419-7100 or email talk@wvxu.org to have your voice heard on today’s topic. Audio for this segment will be uploaded to this page by 4 p.m. ET., or subscribe to our podcast.

Utica Leasing Up in Columbiana County, Royalties Down - Youngstown Business Journal – Energy companies doing business in Columbiana County have exhibited a strong appetite for new lease deals with property owners across the Utica/Point Pleasant shale formation over the last year, records show. It amounts to what is a post-COVID rush to expand or renew existing leaseholds across the county and other areas of the shale play, says attorney Alan Wenger, who oversees the oil and gas division of Harrington, Hoppe and Mitchell law firm in Youngstown. “It’s become evident in the aftermath of COVID,” Wenger says. Yet gone are the days when these leases commanded lucrative signing bonuses and promising royalty returns, Wenger says. Twelve years ago, major oil and gas companies – led by Chesapeake Energy Corp. – descended on eastern Ohio in a race to lock up acreage positions in what was then the unproven Utica/Point Pleasant. Some agreements at that time yielded bonuses of $6,000 an acre and royalties of 20% gross production of an oil and gas well. Today, many of those lease agreements that covered acreage where wells were not drilled have expired, and companies have returned to the table to re-sign property owners to new leases. Or, these energy companies have reached out to landowners whose acreage was not leased during the initial push. “They’re back, and people think the terms should be the same,” Wenger says. “It’s not happening. The days of $5,000 and $6,000 bonuses and 20% royalties don’t happen anymore.” Wenger says property owners no longer hold the leverage they used to, as the Ohio Department of Natural Resources and changes in state law have made it easier for oil and gas firms to combine property tracts for drilling purposes – a practice commonly known as unitization, or “forced pooling.” In Ohio, a unit consists of 640 contiguous surface acres. Wenger says that landowners who are designated as part of a well unit, but have refused to lease their land to an oil and gas company, today negotiate from a disadvantage. “In my experience, the ability of landowners to negotiate is compromised since the boom,” he says. Under Ohio law, a unit today requires that 65% of the landowners within the pool approve of developing a well. “It used to be about 90%. It used to be a roadblock,” Wenger says. Once an application for a unit is filed with ODNR, then the chief of the oil and gas division will hold a hearing as to whether the unit should be approved. Should the unit go forward, those landowners who had not signed leases would be compelled to do so on terms that Wenger says are unfavorable to them. “The ones who once held out and would get the lion’s share are now going to lose,” he says. Those landowners who leased acreage during the early phase of the play have seen their royalties diminish over the years, as many of these wells aren’t producing as much compared to when they were first drilled. “I’d like to know where the royalty checks are,” says Bob Crosser, who owns a 100-acre farm in Center Township. Approximately 80 of his acres are tied to a well unit. Crosser says he hasn’t seen a royalty payment in two months from the well’s operator, EAP. “It’s been a steady decline since the well started producing.” Nevertheless, leasing activity is gaining momentum across the Utica/Point Pleasant, data show. Records from the Columbiana County Recorder’s office show that the three active energy companies that own producing horizontal wells in Columbiana County – EAP Ohio, Hilcorp Energy Co., and Pin Oak Energy Partners LLC – have recorded at least a combined 407 new leases or lease assignments from Jan. 1 through Sept. 19. That’s a 210% increase from 2022, when the three recorded a total of 131 leases. In 2021, EAP, Hilcorp and Pin Oak together recorded 243 leases, records show. Meanwhile oil and gas production in the county remains strong, according to ODNR data. During the first half of 2023 – the most recent figures available – horizontal wells in Columbiana County pumped out an impressive 376,059 barrels of oil. Oil production across the county is driven by four wells operated by EAP Ohio, a division of Houston-based Encino Energy Partners, in Hanover Township. These wells collectively yielded 366,222 barrels during the first half of 2022. “Encino’s second pad is online, and we are currently working on a third pad in Columbiana County,” spokeswoman Jackie Stewart said in a statement. “We continue to be cautiously optimistic about the northern Utica play and look forward to seeing ongoing growth and investment in the region.” These figures represent a shift among energy companies to target what they believe is an emerging oil window in this part of the Utica/Point Pleasant. Traditionally, oil production in the northern tier has been negligible. For example, during the fourth quarter of 2022, the approximately 120 operating wells in the county produced just 5,084 barrels of oil. During the second quarter, Columbiana County was ranked the fourth-highest oil-producing county in the state, data show, with 142,669 barrels. That’s still well behind heavy-hitters such as Guernsey County to the southeast, which yielded 2.6 million barrels during the period. Natural gas production through the first half of 2023 was also strong, as Columbiana County’s horizontal wells produced a combined 28.4 billion cubic feet.

23 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Sep 25 – Oct 1 | Marcellus Drilling News - New shale permits issued for Sep 25 – Oct 1 in the Marcellus/Utica were up a few ticks from the previous week. There were 23 new permits issued last week, up from 21 permits issued two weeks ago. Last week’s permit tally included 10 new permits in Pennsylvania, no new permits in Ohio, and a surprising 13 new permits in West Virginia. Two companies tied for top permittee, one you know, one you may not know. Olympus Energy received 5 permits to drill in Westmoreland County, PA. Consol Mining Company received 5 permits to drill in Monongalia County, WV. Consol used to own CNX Resources before spinning off CNX into its own company. Consol concentrates on coal mining. We were surprised to see Consol wandering back into shale drilling. APEX ENERGY | BUTLER COUNTY | CONSOL ENERGY | EQT CORP | HG ENERGY | LEWIS COUNTY | LYCOMING COUNTY | MARION COUNTY |MONONGALIA COUNTY | OHIO COUNTY | OLYMPUS/HUNTLEY & HUNTLEY | PENNENERGY RESOURCES | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY

Summit Midstream 3Q Update – Considers Selling Part or All of Co. -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Summit Midstream Partners, formed in 2009 and headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas, operates natural gas, crude oil, and produced water gathering (pipeline) systems in several unconventional shale plays, including the Marcellus and Utica. On Tuesday, the company issued an operational update based on third-quarter results (no financials, just operations). The company saw significant quarterly volume growth across nearly every segment, including 19% volume growth in its Northeast (Marcellus/Utica) segment. However, the big news from the update is that the company has received overtures to buy some or all of the entire company. The Summit board is now actively considering those offers.

Biden is touting hydrogen as a source of clean energy and West Virginia officials want in. Here’s what to know about hydrogen hubs -- As the Biden administration looks to make good on its goal to reduce carbon emissions, West Virginia is among the states vying for the federal funding earmarked to push the country towards hydrogen as an alternative energy source.Hydrogen energy, also known as “hydrogen power” or “hydrogen fuel,” is a form of energy derived from hydrogen gas. Electricity, which can come from a variety of sources, is used to split water, generating oxygen and hydrogen. As several of the methods used to produce hydrogen generate minimal carbon emissions, it’s often lauded as a low-carbon energy alternative.The program is a crucial part of the strategy to achieve President Joe Biden’s goal of a 100% clean electrical grid by 2035 as well as net zero carbon emissions by 2050, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. But critics are skeptical hydrogen energy is the way to do this, and are concerned about the feasibility as well as the economic and environmental impacts of this substantial push toward hydrogen energy production. Hydrogen hubs refer to networks of facilities that help produce, store, distribute and utilize hydrogen as an energy source through a collection of power plants, storage facilities and pipelines. The hubs developed through the federal government’s initial push — called the H2Hubs program — are supposed to form the foundation for a national network of hydrogen facilities and producers. The Biden administration hopes this in turn will increase the use of hydrogen as an energy source and reach its climate-related goals, according to the DOE’s Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations. While “clean hydrogen” is commonly used by the Biden administration and others as a general term to refer to hydrogen as an alternative source of energy, it’s not that simple. The term isn’t specific to any one type of hydrogen energy production, of which there are several, because there is no universal definition of the term “clean hydrogen.” Instead the concept has become a “catchall term” for all low-carbon production methods of hydrogen, according to the Rocky Mountain Institute. The electricity used in the process can come from fossil fuels, or it can come from cleaner power sources. Generally, “clean” hydrogen can refer to any hydrogen produced with emission levels lower than current fossil fuel-based ways; the U.S. Department of Energy has released guidance for clean hydrogen that it will use to determine how to prioritize projects that qualify for funding earmarked by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. While there are several hydrogen production methods that are considered clean, the two most common types are hydrogen produced by renewable sources and hydrogen produced from natural gas in combination with carbon capture and storage. Carbon capture and storage, also known as CCS, is a set of technologies and processes designed to capture the carbon dioxide byproduct, preventing it from being released into the atmosphere.

Hope Gas closes acquisition of Peoples Gas WV - Hope Gas today announced that it closed the acquisition of Peoples Gas WV with Essential Utilities. The acquisition of Peoples Gas WV adds 13,000 new customers and grows the company’s customer base by approximately 10%.“I welcome our new customers and employees to Hope Gas,” said Morgan O’Brien, CEO of Hope Gas. “This acquisition continues Hope’s growth and our investment in building the future of West Virginia. West Virginia’s rich energy supply and distribution system is a benefit to economic development. It is a key piece in attracting other businesses to this beautiful state.” Founded in 1898, Hope Gas is already one of the largest local natural gas distribution companies in West Virginia. The Hope Gas vision is to be a leader in the energy industry in the Mountain State and to empower and improve communities through the safe delivery of local, abundant, and reliable energy. Hope Gas now serves approximately 125,000 homes and businesses. It owns and operates over 6900 miles of natural gas pipelines throughout the state.

WV's Hope Gas Parent Hearthstone Rebrands as Hope Utilities In August 2022, MDN brought you the news that Hearthstone Utilities, a Naperville, Illinois-based company, was planning to move its corporate headquarters to Morgantown, West Virginia (see Hearthstone Utilities Moving HQ to WV to Leverage Marcellus/Utica). The move finally happened in June of this year (see Utility Co. Hope Gas Transfers HQ from Illinois to Morgantown, WV). Why move? According to CEO Morgan O’Brien, “We’re very bullish on West Virginia and the idea of having a gas utility sitting on top of the Marcellus and Utica shales, and what that could mean.” Hearthstone operates local natural gas utilities in Indiana, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, and with the purchase of Hope Gas from Dominion Energy earlier this year, it now operates in West Virginia (see Dominion Selling WV Utility – Deal Incl. 2K Miles Gathering Pipes). The parent company is changing its name from Hearthstone Utilities to Hope Utilities.

Mountain Valley Pipeline to receive additional oversight - A federal safety agency is ordering Mountain Valley Pipeline to take additional steps to inspect and repair any sections of pipe that may have been damaged by exposure to the elements during long delays in construction. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration issued a consent order Tuesday. The action, which follows an informal consultation with lead pipeline partner Equitrans Midstream Corp., was taken to address concerns that prolonged exposure to sunlight may have worn thin a protective coating on the pipe meant to curb corrosion once it’s buried. KTA-Tator Inc. will serve as an independent, third-party expert to review Mountain Valley’s process of inspecting the pipes and re-applying the coating when necessary. In a filing late Tuesday with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Mountain Valley wrote that “transparently outlining the steps being taken by the project team to responsibly complete construction is of critical importance and will reinforce public confidence in the safe operation of the pipeline.” In recent comments to FERC, pipeline opponents have said PHMSA was taking too long to act after filing a proposed safety order on Aug. 11. As legal challenges have delayed construction of a natural gas pipeline that will run through the New River and Roanoke Valleys, concerns have grown about a fusion-bonded epoxy coating that was applied to the pipes five or six years ago when work first started.

Equitrans Midstream signs agreement regarding MVP project -Equitrans Midstream, the operator of Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) project, has secured a consent order from the US pipeline regulator for the MVP project. Equitrans will be required to submit an appropriate action plan and carry out tests on coatings intended to prevent corrosion and pipeline damage in accordance with the conditions of the consent agreement with the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA). The agreement comes in response to the notice issued by PHMSA in August 2023, highlighting the potential risk to public safety, property, or the environment from the MVP project. According to Equitrans, the consent order resolved that notice, and the terms of the agreement's conditions are not anticipated to materially affect the project's budget or schedule. Spanning over 487 km from northwestern West Virginia to southern Virginia, MVP is a US$6.6 billion project. The pipeline, which is currently 94% complete, will give drillers in the gas-rich Appalachian Basin essential transport capacity, reported Bloomberg. The MVP has been designed to carry up to 2 billion ft3 of Marcellus and Utica shale natural gas per day. Mountain Valley, the company that owns the pipeline project, is run by Equitrans. Other partners in the project include Con Edison Transmission, NextEra Capital, WGL Midstream, and RGC Midstream. Equitrans President and Chief Operating Officer Diana Charletta said: “The terms of this consent agreement are directly aligned with Equitrans’ core values, which include continually striving to go above and beyond regulatory compliance requirements. Importantly, the agreement outlines actions that are designed to reassure the public of MVP’s integrity and demonstrates our commitment to safe, responsible construction and in-service operations.

Shale Can Play Big Role in World LNG – But Not Without New Pipes - Marcellus Drilling News - According to consulting powerhouse McKinsey & Co., world demand for LNG is forecast to see robust demand growth through at least 2040, and U.S. shale gas producers can effectively compete to fill a coming supply gap. But only if we can build enough new pipelines and liquefaction plants to meet the demand. And that’s the open question. As we report in a related story today (see Diversified CEO Says Gulf Coast has Brighter Future than Appalachia), it’s easier to build new pipelines in the Gulf Coast than in the Marcellus/Utica region. At the recent America’s Natural Gas Conference, McKinsey Partner Dumitru Dediu commented, “Without new infrastructure, we may see Henry Hub prices increasing and, respectively, other less competitive basins supplying these LNG projects.”

Cheniere Energy (LNG) Reduces Feed Gas Intake by 1 Bcfd -- Cheniere Energy LNG, the largest U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) producer, reduced its combined feed gas intake at two of its plants by about 1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd). This reduction comes at a time when the United States is the world's largest LNG exporter and the global demand for LNG is high. This helped push the overall U.S. feed gas consumption to a four-week low of 11.2 bcfd. The reduction was due to a combination of factors, including a maintenance shutdown at Berkshire Hathaway Energy's Cove Point LNG plant and smaller reductions elsewhere. Despite the reduction in feed gas intake, U.S. LNG exports remain strong. According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA), the country regained its crown as the largest LNG exporter in the world in the first half of 2023. The reduction in Cheniere Energy’s feed gas intake is a short-term development. However, the fact that U.S. LNG exports remain strong despite the reduction in feed gas intake is a positive sign for the U.S. LNG market. This suggests that there is strong demand for U.S. LNG, both in Europe and Asia. The high gas prices in these continents are also supporting the LNG exports. However, gas prices can be volatile and if they fall in either Europe or Asia, it could reduce the demand for U.S. LNG.

Delfin gets extension to build US FLNG project - Delfin LNG, a unit of Delfin Midstream and the developer of a floating LNG export project in the Gulf of Mexico, has won more time from the US FERC to put into service the project’s onshore facilities in Louisiana.Last year, the FERC granted a one-year extension of time, to September 28, 2023, to Delfin to construct and make available for service the LNG project’s onshore facilities.The LNG terminal developer filed a request with the FERC on July 21 this year seeking a four-year extension of time.“Because we find that Delfin has demonstrated good cause for the extension of time, we will grant the requested four-year extension of time to complete the onshore facilities authorized in the 2017 certificate order,” the regulator said in a filling dated October 4.Delfin now has time until September 28, 2027, to construct and make available for service the onshore facilities, it said.The company plans to install up to four self-propelled FLNG vessels that could produce up to 13.3 mtpa of LNG or 1.7 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas as part of its Delfin LNG project.It also aims to install two FLNG units under the Avocet LNG project.In the July filling, Delfin Midstream said it expects to take a final investment decision on its first FLNG in October this year.Delfin also negotiated a binding engineering, construction, and procurement contract with South Korea’s Samsung Heavy Industries and US engineer Black & Veatch and said that that it expects to sign this deal by September this year.The firm recently also joined forces with China’s Wison Offshore & Marine to develop additional floating LNG producersBesides the Wison deal, Delfin sealed a supply deal in July with UK-based Centrica worth about $8 billion.Prior to that, the firm secured an investment from Japan’s shipping giant MOL and previously signed supply deals with Hartree Partners and Vitol.

Tellurian seeks more time to complete Driftwood LNG terminal - US LNG terminal developer Tellurian has requested more time from the US FERC to complete the construction of its Driftwood LNG project in Louisiana. In April 2019, the FERC authorized Driftwood LNG to site, construct, and operate facilities for the liquefaction and export of natural gas in Calcasieu Parish, Louisiana. Besides the 27 mtpa LNG terminal, the regulator also authorized Driftwood Pipeline to build a new 48-inch interstate natural gas pipeline system in Evangeline, Acadia, Jefferson Davis, and Calcasieu Parishes. The order said that Driftwood LNG’s facilities and the pipeline must be fully completed and made available for service within seven years of the date of order. However, Driftwood told the FERC in a filling dated October 4 that it would need an additional 36 months to complete construction of the LNG terminal and the pipeline and place the entire project in service, rendering the current inservice deadlines in the order infeasible. In this regard, Driftwood requests that the FERC grant an approximately 36-month extension of time so that it has the required time to receive its long lead manufactured equipment, which cannot be manufactured and delivered to the site in time to meet the current deadline, install the equipment and construct the remaining facilities, and continue to attract and secure customers, and financing, it said. “Driftwood respectfully requests that the Commission grant this request for extension by November 16, 2023 so as to help expedite the timely conclusion of ongoing commercial and financial discussions between the project and certain potential partners,” the firm said.Freeport LNG working to place second LNG jetty back in service - Freeport LNG, the operator of the three-train 15 mtpa liquefaction plant in Texas, is working to secure approvals to place back its second jetty in service and to return the export facility to full commercial operations.In February this year, the LNG terminal operator shipped the first cargo from its LNG export plant in Texas since the shutdown in June 2022.Freeport received regulatory approvals from both the US FERC and PHMSA during the first quarter to restart Phase I operations, which consists of three liquefaction trains, two LNG storage tanks (tanks 1 and 2) and a single LNG jetty (dock 1).These approvals did not grant authorization to Freeport to commission or place LNG tank 3, Loop 2, and Dock 2 back into service.In order to continue Freeport’s sequential plan to return the export facility to full commercial operations, Freeport has requested authorization from FERC for the nitrogen cooldown of the Loop 2 LNG rundown piping system and the introduction of hydrocarbons to Loop 2 to complete its cooldown and commissioning.“These activities are necessary to move into Phase II operations, which would return Dock 2 to service,” Freeport said in a filling with FERC dated September 30.Freeport noted that any authorization pursuant to this request will be limited to the nitrogen cool down of the Loop 2 LNG rundown piping system and introduction of LNG into the Loop 2 piping.Subsequent approvals will be necessary to fully return Dock 2 to service, the LNG terminal operator said.

Freeport LNG Seeks FERC Permission to Progress Return of Full Commercial Operations - Freeport LNG Development LP has asked FERC for permission to move forward with the next phase of its operational restart, moving its Texas export facility closer to full commercial operations for the first time since last summer. In a recent filing, the firm asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for permission to allow it to begin the nitrogen cooldown of its Loop 2 system and introduce natural gas so it can begin the commissioning process. Freeport requested a response by Friday. “These activities are necessary to move into Phase II Operations, which would return Dock 2 to service,” Freeport representatives wrote in the request to FERC.

U.S., Mexico Projects Driving TotalEnergies Plan to Grow LNG Business by 50% - of its key “pillars” as it aims to grow natural gas and oil production by at least 2% annually until the end of the decade. In an outlook presentation as a part of TotalEnergies’ investor day in New York, executives outlined how the French major plans to grow its already substantial portfolio of liquefied natural gas by 50% through the end of the decade. At the center of those plans are five key LNG projects, including two in North America that will contribute almost half of TotalEnergies’ expected capacity increases. Earlier in the year, the firm finalized an equity and offtake agreement with NextDecade Corp., gaining 5.4 million metric tons/year (mmty) in U.S. supply from Rio Grande LNG.

US natgas prices jump 7% to 8-month high on small storage build, lower output (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 7% to an eight-month high on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected storage build, technical buying, a drop in output and forecasts for seasonally cooler weather that should boost heating demand in coming weeks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 86 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Sept. 29. That was lower than the 92-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 126 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 103 bcf. The "sharp (storage) miss to the downside compared to analyst estimates ... may have caught many newly opened short positions offsides," . Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 20.4 cents, or 6.9%, to settle at $3.166 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Jan. 24. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states slid to 102.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 102.9 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 103.1 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, output dropped by 1.4 bcfd over the past two days to a preliminary 14-week low of 101.2 bcfd on Thursday. Energy analysts, however, have said that preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through Oct. 20. LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 94.8 bcfd this week to 95.5 bcfd next week as the normal seasonal cooling of the weather boosts heating demand. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday, while the forecast for next week was higher. Pipeline exports to Mexico rose to an average of 7.3 bcfd so far in October, up from a record 7.2 bcfd in September, according to LSEG data. Analysts expect exports to Mexico to rise even higher in coming months once New Fortress Energy's plant in Altamira starts pulling in U.S. gas to turn into liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants slid to 12.4 bcfd so far in October, down from 12.6 bcfd in September and a record high of 14.0 bcfd in April. Energy traders said they expected Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point facility in Maryland to exit a maintenance outage over the next week or so based in part on company notices to customers that some pipeline work was expected to be completed on Oct. 4. Cove Point shut around Sept. 20. Analysts at LSEG have said the plant usually shuts for about three weeks of maintenance each autumn. Much higher global prices have fed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine. Gas was trading around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia.

Natural Gas Futures Further Price Rally on Supply Interruptions, Australian LNG Strike Threat - The bull parade barreling through the natural gas futures market extended to a fourth consecutive session on Friday, fueled by lighter production and amplified by warnings of a worker walkout at key LNG export facilities. Building on a 20.4 cent-spike the prior session, the November Nymex gas futures contract rose another 17.2 cents on Friday and settled at $3.338/MMBtu. For the week, it gained 14%. Following strong gains earlier in the week, NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. declined 5.5 cents on Friday to $2.425. Production averaged about 100 Bcf/d during the week, off more than 2 Bcf/d from 2023 highs amid maintenance projects in multiple basins.

U.S. Natural Gas Producers, Marketers Forecasting Lower Prices This Winter Amid Stout Supply - A confluence of bearish supply and demand factors is expected to put slight downward pressure on U.S. natural gas prices this winter versus the last one, even with demand poised to hit record levels, according to the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA). The group, which represents both integrated and independent producers and marketers of gas, unveiled its 2023 Winter Outlook on Thursday. Winter is defined as November through March, when heating demand for natural gas typically spikes. “The outlook shows producers are rising to the challenge of meeting strong winter demand for natural gas at home, while continuing to meet the critical needs of an under-supplied global market,” said NGSA Chairman Freeman Shaheen. “We also continue to see growth in new gas-fired power...

What Do Asian Investments in U.S. Ammonia, Hydrogen Exports Mean for the Natural Gas Market? - The U.S. Gulf Coast has seen a bevy of potential deals and partnerships as large Asian natural gas buyers eye using gas-derivative, low-carbon fuels to help meet ambitious climate goals. Specifically, Japanese and South Korean plans to lean on ammonia and hydrogen made from natural gas to decarbonize existing infrastructure are raising the interest of U.S. firms from LNG exporters to fertilizer producers. However, the potential upside for the domestic gas market from ammonia or hydrogen projects could prove much more complicated than the future of liquefied natural gas.

Oil and gas job promises out of reach for people of color - There’s an unspoken promise when an industry moves into any community: We will disrupt your lives, but in exchange we will provide good-paying jobs. Except, according to new research shared exclusively with Floodlight, in Louisiana’s majority Black communities in the area known as “Cancer Alley,” because of its high concentration of polluting industries, the majority of jobs go to white workers. Similar disparities occur in minority-dominant communities along Texas’ Gulf Coast, where the majority of workers are white. “If one group gets all the pollution and another group gets all the jobs, it’s not really a tradeoff anymore,” said Kimberly Terrell, director of community engagement and a staff scientist with the Tulane University Environmental Law Clinic who led the research team. The highest disparity was found in St. John the Baptist Parish, home to the third largest oil refinery in the nation, and plants that make neoprene and absorbent material for diapers. There, people of color represent nearly 70% of the working-age population but make up only 28% of the manufacturing workforce, according to initial data from Tulane. That disparity is even greater with respect to higher-paying jobs, such as managers, sales workers and technicians. Minorities hold only 19% of those positions. “I would hear the people here say these plants keep coming but they’re not hiring Black people,” said retired educator Stephanie Aubert, who is Black and lives in St. John the Baptist Parish. “They’ll hire people from outside the parish before they hire us. That’s what they do to us.” The second highest disparity was found in Jefferson County, Texas, where minorities represent 59% of the working age population but make up only 28% of the manufacturing workforce, according to the data. Industry representatives who responded to Floodlight say they are working to increase diversity. Louisiana’s economic development agency, which gives industry generous incentives to locate in the state, says their hiring requirements don’t have any racial or location requirements.

Oil and Gas Sector Reacts to Federal Offshore Leasing Program - Several oil and gas groups have reacted to the U.S. Department of the Interior’s (DOI) release of a proposed final 2024-2029 National Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program. In a statement posted on its website, the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) President and CEO Mike Sommers said, “this restrictive offshore leasing program is the latest tactic in a coordinated strategy to reduce energy production, ultimately weakening America’s energy dominance, limiting consumers access to affordable reliable energy, and compromising our ability to lead on the global stage”. “For decades, we’ve strived for energy security and this administration keeps trying to give it away,” he added. “At a time when inflation runs rampant across the country, the Biden administration is choosing failed energy policies that are adding to the pain Americans are feeling at the pump,” Sommers noted in the statement. In a statement posted on its site, the Independent Petroleum Association of America’s (IPAA) President and CEO Jeff Eshelman said the group was “disappointed by the content of the Biden administration’s offshore five-year leasing program”. “It’s clear that the Biden administration has chosen to align its policy decisions with environmental activists rather than put the best interest of American consumers first,” Eshelman said in the statement. “A plan with only three leases in five years will not only hamper American production but jeopardizes our energy security and will result in hundreds of millions of dollars of lost revenue to coastal states and the federal treasury,” he added. “The sad truth is that this plan will force the U.S. to get oil from other nations rather than develop American resources by American companies,” Eshelman continued.

BP says shore clean-up after Gulf of Mexico oil spill ends (Reuters) - BP Plc said the U.S. Coast Guardon Tuesday ended patrols and operations on the final threeshoreline miles in Louisiana, bringing to a close the four-yearcleanup of the Gulf Coast following the Deepwater Horizon oilspill. The move completes a cleanup operations that ended inFlorida, Alabama and Mississippi last June, BP said in astatement on Tuesday. (http://r.reuters.com/zuz58v) The 2010 disaster in the Gulf of Mexico killed 11 rigworkers and spilled 4 million barrels of oil in the worstoffshore spill in U.S. history. "BP has spent more than $14 billion and more than 70 millionpersonnel hours on response and cleanup activities," LauraFolse, BP's executive vice president for Response andEnvironmental Restoration, said in a statement

Manatee County port absolved of involvement in oil spill -The U.S. Coast Guard has suspended its efforts investigating the SeaPort Manatee oil spill that was first discovered Aug. 31, absolving the port from any involvement. The port samples collected for type testing didn’t match the oil found in the inner harbor, a press release states. While the coast guard was unable to pinpoint the source, it has suspended its investigation. James Satcher, chairman of the Manatee County Port Authority, expressed his gratitude for the coast guard’s efforts in cleaning up and investigating the event. “While it is disappointing that the investigation could not pinpoint the origin of the material, we are reassured in our proactive response efforts and pleased to learn that it was not identified as coming from a Seaport Manatee-related source,” Satcher says in the release. The discoloration of water was found the day after Hurricane Idalia made landfall. After the port notified the coast guard, the St. Petersburg Coast Guard sector showed up to deploy booms, which are floating barriers used to contain oil spills. It was determined the discoloration was caused by refined oil. As of Sept. 29, the oil was entirely removed and an endangered species analysis by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that no fish or wildlife had been affected. During a Sept. 7 interview with the Business Observer, Executive Director Carlos Buqueras speculated that the oil could have come from anywhere since it happened after the hurricane, before adding he wasn’t sure if it was possible for a storm to wash in oil into the port. “It’s frustrating for us,” Buqueras says of the port’s involvement in the spill, “because we’re innocent bystanders in that we don’t handle the oil.” The port generates over $5.1 billion in economic impacts annually, according to the release, and provides over 37,000 direct and indirect jobs.

Coast Guard halts investigation into Port Manatee oil spill - (WFLA) — Over 20,000 gallons of water and crude oil were recovered from Port Manatee following the spill on Sep. 1, but nearly one month later, questions still remain. Following a month-long effort, the U.S. Coast Guard suspended its investigation into the spill which sought responsibility for the environmental fiasco. Officials said they performed a thorough examination of 30 potential sources, including port facilities and ships. Roughly 20,500 gallons of oil/water mixture and 6.4 tons of oily debris were removed in the process. “I am pleased that we were able to quickly isolate the spilled material within the port to mitigate impacts to the environment,” said Coast Guard Sector St. Petersburg commander Capt. Michael Kahle. “Our investigators worked tirelessly in search of the spill source and the responsible party.” Alas, the $1.17 million clean-up and investigative efforts came up empty-handed in the search for a source. SeaPort Manatee was quick to note that “none of the samples collected for type-testing at the port matched the oil found in the inner harbor.” It added that port team members were among the first to notice a visible discoloration within the water and notify the National Response Center. According to the port, an endangered species analysis of the area conducted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that “no fish or wildlife were affected by the spill.” Further investigation is pending new information.

Oilfield companies helped craft Texas’ new oil waste rules, documents show - State regulators on Monday released their draft rules for what to do with all the hazardous oilfield waste that’s left over once a well is drilled. The announcement gives the public one month to comment on the new rules — while some industry representatives started giving input more than two years ago, documents and interviews show.Oilfield waste executives and consultants helped write the regulations beginning in 2021. Oil and gas business advocates also gave feedback to the Railroad Commission of Texas, which regulates the industry. The effort was initiated by a commissioner who has investments in oilfield waste companies. Jim Wright, one of the agency’s three elected commissioners, ran for his seat with an eye on rewriting what’s known as Rule 8. Wright owns stock in several hazardous waste management companies in Texas, according to statements filed with the Texas Ethics Commission. In an interview, Wright brushed off critics who suggest his involvement in the industry makes him a biased regulator. He said that he had little to do with re-writing the rules after he became commissioner, and that, if anything, his position on the Commission has hurt his businesses rather than helped it. Few companies want to risk doing business with companies associated with regulators, he said. “For those who think this is my rule — what Jim Wright wants — that couldn’t be further from the truth,” Wright said. “Even before I came to office, [commission] staff knew we really needed to take a hard look at Rule 8.” Wright said he believes the new rules will benefit all Texans, not just the oilfield waste industry. Supporters of industry’s early involvement say the rules, which haven’t been significantly revised since 1984, needed to be changed to make the permitting process more efficient and to allow new waste recycling technologies to be permitted. Critics say the revised regulations would benefit the industry over the public. “There’s an obvious conflict of interest if the industry gets to rewrite their own rules to their own financial benefit, and they end up writing rules that make people sick or contaminate groundwater and put our collective future at risk,” said Virginia Palacios, executive director of Commission Shift, a watchdog group that advocates for stricter financial policies for commissioners.

ExxonMobil, Pioneer Merger Could Finally Become Reality -- In a story that should surprise no one, the Wall Street Journal and others are reporting that the long-anticipated deal between U.S. energy giant ExxonMobilXOM and Permian Basin titan Pioneer Natural ResourcesPXD could finally be upon us. Rumors about a possible deal between the two companies have circulated off and on since at least 2017, and heated up again this past April. But, as with so many times before, the rumors soon cooled down when no deal was consummated. Perhaps this time will be different, but only time will tell. As of close of business Thursday, Pioneer boasted a market cap of more than $50 billion, meaning it would become Exxon’s biggest acquisition since its $81 billion merger with Mobil Oil Company in 1998. If completed, this deal would easily surpass ExxonMobil’s $41 billion buyout of Fort Worth-based independent XTO Energy in 2009. A merger between the two companies would also cement the combined company as far and away the dominant producer in the Permian Basin, the world’s most active oil and gas play. Pioneer has long ranked as the biggest holder of leases and drilling opportunities in the Midland sub-basin of the greater Permian Basin region, while ExxonMobil owns substantial leasehold in both the Midland and Delaware basins. An ExxonMobil/Pioneer deal would signify the continuation of the ‘bigger is better’ philosophy that has dominated the shale oil and gas sector in recent years. That has been the dominant theme as upstream companies have sought to grow through acquisitions as the main means of maintaining their inventories of future drilling projects. Growth via M&A also provides opportunities to optimize head counts and take advantage of other economies of scale and operational efficiencies. The large amount of contiguous acreage owned by the two companies would allow ExxonMobil to optimize water usage, recycling and transport operations, minimize the number of truck trips related to each specific task, and maximize efficiencies related to both drilling and hydraulic fracturing scheduling, among an array of additional efficiencies. For its own part, Pioneer has also been active in the growth via acquisitions space, executing buyouts of both Parsley Energy and DoublePoint Energy for a combined $11 billion during 2021. The company has grown to become the largest pure-play Permian Basin company under the leadership of longtime CEO Scott Sheffield. A deal with Pioneer would come just three months after ExxonMobil’s last big acquisition, the $4.9 billion buyout of midstream company Denbury in July. That deal was another natural fit for the energy giant, mainly additive to its Low Carbon Ventures (LCV) business unit, given Denbury’s suite of CO2 pipelines and other CO2-related assets. Exxon’s LCV unit has a heavy focus on mounting major carbon capture and storage projects along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast, where much of the Denbury assets are located. But a deal with Pioneer would be all about oil and gas, all about the upstream, and all about the prolific Permian Basin. It would also be entirely consistent with the beefed-up, Permian-heavy capital budget Exxon and its CEO, Darren Woods, rolled out early this year. This is a deal that has always seemed like a natural fit but has never managed to come to fruition. Perhaps this time will be the charm.

World's Top Shareholder Urges Systemic Change to Rein In Oil Emissions -A senior executive at Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, which owns a larger share of global stocks than any other investor, says Big Oil’s transition strategy isn’t holding up as carbon emissions continue to rise. “The oil and gas industry, as a whole, clearly isn’t doing enough to cut emissions,” said Carine Smith Ihenacho, chief governance and compliance officer at Norges Bank Investment Management. “Currently, there’s a long way to go, as global emissions are still going up.” The criticism comes as some of the world’s biggest oil companies double down on their core business and Brent crude inches toward $100 a barrel. Meanwhile, producers attending a recent petroleum summit lashed out at the International Energy Agency for its unequivocal warning that the industry needs to stop developing new oil fields if the planet is to limit global heating to the critical threshold of 1.5C. Such talk, according to the oil executives present, politicizes the climate debate. For investors trying to align their portfolios with the goals of the Paris climate agreement, such developments represent a worrying shift in the wrong direction. “The whole energy system needs to change, with companies taking bigger strides to reduce their use of fossil fuels in favor of renewable-energy sources,” Smith Ihenacho said. “At the moment, companies aren’t making the transition at a fast enough pace to achieve net zero by 2050.” A number of Wall Street heavyweights, meanwhile, are declaring their unwavering commitment to Big Oil. Speaking Monday at the American Energy Security Summit in Oklahoma City, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer David Solomon defended the need to support fossil fuel companies, dismissing demands from climate activists to restrict their access to finance. “Traditional energy companies are hugely important to the global economy, they are hugely important to Goldman Sachs,” he said. “We are all going to continue to finance traditional companies for a long time.” According to Smith Ihenacho, it’s up to the world’s largest investors to pressure companies and ensure they have proper transition plans. That applies not just to fossil fuel companies, but across high-carbon industries including cement, steel, chemicals, transportation and construction, she said. “Let’s be clear, the energy transition is about much more than oil and gas,” Smith Ihenacho said. The reality is that just 23 percent of the companies in which Norway’s $1.4 trillion wealth fund invests have credible net zero targets, she said. The fund held roughly 1 percent of Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. at the end of last year, and more than 3 percent of Shell Plc and BP Plc as recently as last month, according to the latest data compiled by Bloomberg. BP and Shell are among companies that actually have “fairly extensive transition plans, and we are watching to see how the industry follows through on those plans,” Smith Ihenacho said.

Lack of Investor Interest Inhibits Colombia’s Plan to Boost LNG Imports - Colombia needs more natural gas imports to meet growing power demand as El Niño-influenced weather conditions have resulted in water shortages, necessitating a shift away from hydroelectricity. The trend has put pressure on already constrained gas supplies in the country. But a recent proposal to add import capacity with a second LNG terminal received only one bid. “It is likely that Colombia will require more liquefied natural gas imports in the next few years, especially with El Niño weather conditions and significant variations on rain patterns…” said Diego Rivera Rivota, a research associate at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

Liz Truss Urges Rishi Sunak To Support Fracking And Tax Cuts - Liz Truss will today urge Rishi Sunak to give his support for fracking and commit to slashing business taxes before the next election. The former prime minister will tell her former Tory leadership rival that both policies are necessary to grow the British economy. Truss has angered many in the party by deciding to appear at this year’s Conservative conference in Manchester less than a year after she was humiliatingly forced to resign as PM. She will appear alongside the likes of Priti Patel and Jacob Rees-Mogg at a “Great British Growth” rally on the fringes of the annual gathering. Truss will use her appearance to push for the government to support two of the policies she tried and failed to implement during her seven weeks in No.10 - shale gas exploration and cutting corporation tax from 25p to 19p in the pound. She will say: “By the end of this decade, if we don’t get fracking for shale, the UK is set to import over two thirds of the gas we need – from places over which we have no control. “That puts our security at risk, it’s expensive, and it’s worse for the planet – you have to burn petroleum to get it here. I’ve never understood why environmental activists prefer importing gas from abroad instead of producing it here at home.” “Fracking here in the UK – as they do in the US – could cut family gas bills by as much as half.” On corporation tax, she will say: “We can’t stand idly while companies like AstraZeneca move operations abroad because of our huge tax burden or small businesses shut up shop because they are drowning in red tape. “We should be hungry to attract the world’s best businesses and encouraging people to start businesses here at home. We must not normalise the raiding of businesses’ coffers. “So ahead of this year’s autumn statement, we must make the Conservative Party the party of business once again, by getting corporation tax back down to 19%.”

LNG Market Said Calm Heading Into Winter, but Risks Remain - The sense of urgency that pervaded the global natural gas market at this time last year has eased as storage inventories in Europe and Asia are well stocked, and the supply outlook is said to have improved considerably heading into winter. In Europe, which continues to drive the market as it replaces Russian gas supplies cut off last year, storage caverns are nearly full and close to record capacities. Global LNG demand has been steady, with Asian and European imports largely flat from last year’s levels. There is no flurry of buying activity and gas benchmarks in both regions have fallen significantly from where they stood last year.

Trafigura Secures U.S.-Backed Credit Line for LNG Exports - Trafigura Group Pte. Ltd. has secured a $400 million credit line insured by the U.S. Export-Import Bank to move more LNG to Europe. The global commodities trader said the two revolving credit facilities would be “used exclusively” to deliver U.S. liquefied natural gas to “customers primarily in Europe.” U.S. exporters have provided about 40% of the continent’s LNG this year, according to Kpler. Citigroup Inc. was the sole arranger for the deal and is one of two lenders for the facilities.

Trafigura enters $400 million loan to buy US LNG cargoes for Europe - Energy trader Trafigura has entered into two revolving credit facilities worth $400 million and will use the funds to purchase LNG cargoes from US exporters for supply to customers in Europe.Trafigura said in a statement on Wednesday that the facilities are supported by the Export-Import Bank of the United States.The signing of the deals follows approval by the US EXIM board of directors of two financial institution buyer credit (FIBC) policies issued to two financial institutions, including Citibank, for short-term facilities being extended to Trafigura, it said.Trafigura said it will use the facilities to purchase LNG cargoes from US exporters for supply to customers primarily in Europe, providing “energy security through replacement of Russian gas due to the war in Ukraine.”In December last year, Trafigura entered into a $3 billion four-year loan to supply US LNG to German gas trader Sefe, previously known as Gazprom Germania.The commodity firm said at the time that first gas delivery took place on November 1, 2022 and Trafigura would primarily use existing quantities from its global gas and LNG portfolio to help secure gas supplies to Sefe.Trafigura has a long-term LNG supply deal with US LNG exporting giant Cheniere.The 15-year deal started back in 2019 and Trafigura buys about 1 million tonnes a year of LNG from Cheniere.Trafigura’s LNG volumes dropped about 7.1 percent in the fiscal year ending September 30 while the company’s net profit more than doubled to $7 billion.LNG volumes declined to 13 million tonnes compared to 14 million tonnes during the same period last year, Trafigura said in its annual report.Trafigura did not reveal its LNG volumes for the six-month period ended March 31, 2023.The company’s profit more than doubled during the period to $5.5 billion.

Ireland Rejects LNG Terminal Project on Climate Grounds -- Amid Europe’s angst over energy security, Ireland has made one of the boldest moves of any nation on the continent in the name of climate action: It rejected a new fossil fuel import facility. The country’s planning authority last month refused a proposal for a liquefied natural gas import terminal on the Shannon estuary and a related gas-fired power plant, after taking into consideration policies outlined in Ireland’s energy and climate action plan. The strategy calls for the country to reduce greenhouse gas emissions annually by 7 percent on average between 2021 and 2030. “It is considered that the development at this time would be contrary to current government policy,” according to the board decision. Ireland is “probably the first” country to deny an LNG facility based “on climate, as opposed to local environmental opposition,” according to Jonathan Stern, distinguished research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. The decision comes ahead of the country’s review of its energy security in the coming weeks. Minister for the Environment Eamon Ryan told national broadcaster RTE the review could recommend some form of LNG but it would be “strategic” and not commercial. Unlike the rest of Europe, Ireland appears to be pushing ahead with its zero carbon transition policy, despite energy shocks last year that left most European countries scrambling for more, not less, LNG. Germany installed three floating LNG facilities in a matter of months, and more are planned. France made a U-turn on LNG in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and went from scrapping a US LNG supply deal to eventually signing it. The UK in September announced it’s stepping back from some of its most aggressive net zero targets.

TTF Slides as European Natural Gas Supply Concerns Ease – LNG Recap - Global natural gas prices declined Monday, driven lower by mild temperatures and easing supply concerns. Sunday kicked off the winter heating season in Europe, but unusually warm temperatures are forecast over the next two weeks. Norwegian natural gas production also continues to rebound after weeks of maintenance that lasted longer than expected. Exports were nominated at nearly 275 million cubic meters (MMcm) on Monday, up from 254 MMcm a week prior. Norwegian exports typically flow at levels above 300 MMcm. Maintenance at the massive Troll and Skarv fields is scheduled to end within the next week.

Egypt Signals Return of LNG Cargoes as Global Prices Continue to Plunge - Egypt has resumed loading LNG cargoes after months of absence from the export market, adding a further supply buffer for Europe as prices continue dipping. EgyptA ship controlled by TotalEnergies SE loaded at the Idku liquefied natural gas terminal in Egypt Thursday (10/5) before making a possible voyage to an import terminal in Europe, according to shipping and navigational data from Kpler. It is the first vessel to pick up an LNG cargo from Egypt since July. Egypt’s Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Tarek El-Molla recently told news media that the country’s export plans were still under review, but it was preparing to resume exports after intense summer heat spiked domestic gas consumption. Egypt could be able to supply cargoes into April 2024 before having to retain...

Shell puts large LNG bunkering newbuild to work in Caribbean - LNG giant Shell has completed the first liquefied natural gas bunkering operation in the Caribbean with the 18,000-cbm bunkering vessel, New Frontier 2.In July, Shell and South Korea’s Pan Ocean named this LNG bunkering vessel. South Korea’s Hyundai Mipo built the ship.Shell’s unit Shell NA LNG previously entered into a six-year charter deal worth about $55 million for the newbuild and Shell said it will deploy the ship in the Americas.According to a social media post on Monday by Shell’s head of downstream LNG,Tahir Faruqui, the firm has put New Frontier 2 to work in the Caribbean with the completion of its first operation in Jamaica.The vessel bunkered the oil and chemical tanker Solar Catie during the operation.Shell joined forces with the Maritime Authority of Jamaica and the Port Authority of Jamaica for this bunkering operation.Faruqui said this operation also “signified an important milestone for us in Jamaica where we conducted our first ship-to-ship LNG bunkering in Portland Bight.”Eerlier this year, Shell and Israel’s shipping firm Zim completed the first LNG bunkering operation in Jamaica as part of their 10-year bunkering deal.This LNG bunkering vessel is Shell’s third ship deployed in the Americas and “is part of our expansive lineup of 12 bunker vessels,” Faruqui added.

Chevron Australia LNG Workers Agree to Resume Strike | Rigzone - Workers at Chevron Corp.’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Western Australia have voted to resume a strike, accusing the energy giant of failing to honor government-recommended employment conditions the company earlier agreed to heed. The Offshore Alliance, a coalition between the Australian Workers’ Union and the Maritime Union of Australia, had gone on so-called protracted industrial action (PIA) on September 8 for a planned three weeks after the two sides failed to reach a bargaining agreement despite mediation by the Fair Work Commission (FWC). On September 25 in a statement emailed to Rigzone the union said it was suspending the strike after Chevron Australia Pty. Ltd. agreed to a recommendation by the FWC and union members also agreed to the terms put forward by the tribunal. The Offshore Alliance has now said the strike would resume after consensus achieved by ballot. “Offshore Alliance members at Chevron have voted to recommence industrial action after the American petrochemical company reneged on the commitment they gave the Fair Work Commission to incorporate its recommendations into Enterprise Agreements covering workers at the Gorgon and Wheatstone Downstream facilities”, the union said in a statement emailed to Rigzone. The decision was reached in votes by workers on Thursday and Friday, according to the statement. The Australian government’s labor mediator issued September 21 a recommendation laying out employment terms concerning work hours, lodging conditions, allowances, salary, promotion and job security. "The parties are on the precipice of achieving historical first enterprise agreements for these Chevron LNG facilities in Western Australia", FWC Commissioner B Riordan said in the decision posted on the agency's website. "To date, a large number of issues have been settled, on a without prejudice basis, which should form the foundation of enterprise agreements between the parties for the future". Chevron Australia told Rigzone September 21 it has accepted the recommendation, after initially refusing to cede to what it said were above-market-level demands by the workers. The Offshore Alliance has said its demands are for terms at par with the industry, claiming Chevron Australia is the only major player in Western Australia not to have an agreement with workers on minimum conditions of employment, or an enterprise agreement. "After considering the recommendation, Chevron has accepted the recommendation to resolve all outstanding issues and finalize the agreements", the company said in an emailed statement to Rigzone at the time. "We have informed the Commissioner of our position and written to the unions and other employee bargaining representatives confirming our acceptance". In also accepting the FWC recommendation, the Offshore Alliance told Rigzone in an email September 22, “The proposed enterprise agreements, which incorporate the Commissioner's recommendations, contain substantial improvements in terms and conditions of employment including increased remuneration, job security, locked-in rosters, career progression and returning all employees to a 40 percent roster". But the latest statement from the union received by Rigzone Friday said, “Since that agreement was reached the Offshore Alliance has been working with Chevron to finalize the drafting of the agreements however as part of that process lawyers acting for Chevron have been attempting to walk back some clauses previously settled”. “As a result of Offshore Alliance members voting to recommence PIA the Offshore Alliance has written to the Fair Work Commission to apply to have the matter re-listed, this ensures workplace issues already agreed to won’t be lost due to Chevron’s recent poor behavior”, the latest statement added.

QatarEnergy officially starts work on giant LNG expansion project - State-owned LNG giant QatarEnergy has officially started building its North Field expansion project, which will raise Qatar’s LNG production capacity to 126 Mtpa by 2026. The project’s ground breaking took place during a special ceremony on Tuesday at Ras Laffan attended by Qatar’s energy minister and chief executive of QatarEnergy, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, and the CEOs and senior executives of QatarEnergy’s partners in the expansion project. QatarEnergy’s partners in the project are Shell, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Eni, Sinopec, and CNPC. The project includes six mega trains, each with a production capacity of eight Mtpa of LNG, four of which are part of the North Field East expansion project, and two are part of the North Field South expansion project. In addition to 48 Mtpa of LNG, the project will produce 6,500 tons per day of ethane gas, which will be used as a feedstock in the local petrochemical industries. The project will also produce about 200,000 barrels per day of liquefied petroleum gas (propane and butane), and about 450,000 barrels per day of condensates, in addition to large quantities of helium and pure sulfur. Technip and Chiyoda won the EPC award for the North Field East project, while QatarEnergy awarded the contract for the North Field South project to a joint venture of Technip Energies and Consolidated Contractors Company. QatarEnergy LNG, previously known as Qatargas, currently operates 14 LNG production trains with a capacity of about 77 Mtpa in Ras Laffan.

Baker Hughes Bags $400MM Equipment Contract for Adnoc LNG Project | Rigzone -- Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (Adnoc) has awarded a contract valued over $400 million (AED 1.47 billion) to Baker Hughes Co. for the supply of compression systems for a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in the Al Ruwais Industrial City. The equipment will be all-electric, according to press releases by both companies, with Adnoc touting the project as the first liquefaction plant in the Middle East and North Africa to run on clean power. The facility’s LNG trains will use the USA firm’s 75-megawatt BRUSH electric motor technology, Baker Hughes said in its announcement Wednesday. The project consists of two trains with a capacity of 4.8 million metric tons per annum (mtpa) each, according to Adnoc. “When completed, it will more than double ADNOC’s LNG production target capacity to meet increased global demand for natural gas”, Adnoc said in its own announcement. “The award of the contract underscores ADNOC’s commitment to accelerate its net zero ambition and decarbonization plans”, the company said. Adnoc has doubled its target carbon dioxide capture capacity to 10 mtpa by 2030. “As the first clean electricity powered LNG facility in the Middle East, the Ruwais LNG project reinforces ADNOC’s leadership within the LNG industry and underscores our commitment to decarbonization, sustainability and innovation”, Fatema Al Nuaimi, executive vice-president for downstream business management at Adnoc, said in a statement. Baker Hughes said in its announcement it expects to book the order in the fourth quarter. The equipment will be provided by the former power generation unit of BRUSH Group, a United Kingdom-based equipment maker. Baker Hughes acquired the BRUSH business last year, in a transaction that it said advances its “commitment to lead in providing decarbonization solutions for the natural gas industry and historically hard-to-abate sectors”, as stated in a Baker Hughes news release August 8, 2022 announcing the purchase. The acquisition was completed October 2022, as announced by Baker Hughes October 19, 2022. Ganesh Ramaswamy, executive vice-president of industrial and energy technology at Baker Hughes, noted in the American company’s announcement, “This award represents an important milestone for Baker Hughes in the LNG market and demonstrates the strength of our portfolio, which we strategically expanded through the BRUSH Power Generation acquisition in 2022”. The Adnoc award follows a contract Baker Hughes scored from Venture Global LNG Inc. for the supply of a modularized LNG system and a power island. “The contract was awarded under a master equipment supply agreement between Venture Global LNG and Baker Hughes for more than 100 million tons per annum (MTPA) of production capacity, which was expanded from 70 MTPA”, Baker Hughes said in a news release Monday. It did not disclose the value of the “major contract”.

Trafigura, Vitol offer spot LNG cargoes to Pakistan - LNG Prime -State-owned Pakistan LNG has received offers for spot liquefied natural gas shipments from traders Trafigura and Vitol following a recent spot cargo tender.Pakistan LNG released this tender on September 27 for two spot cargoes with deliveries on December 7-8 and December 13-14.The tender closed on October 4 and Pakistan LNG received offers from Trafigura and Vitol Bahrain, according to an evaluation report published by the company.Trafigura was the only firm to submit an offer for the delivery on December 13-14 and it offered a price of $19.3900/MMBtu.Vitol offered the lowest price of 15.9700/MMBtu for the December 7-8 delivery, while Trafigura offered a price of 18.3900/MMBtu, the document shows.Media reports suggest that Pakistan LNG decided only to accept the offer from Vitol for the December 7-8 delivery.In June this year, Pakistan LNG launched two tenders for spot cargoes.The firm received no offers for its tender seeking bids for a total of six spot LNG shipments for delivery in October and December, while Trafigura offered two shipments for the second tender seeking three cargoes over January-February 2024.Trafigura offered a price of $23.4711/MMBtu for the January 3-4 delivery and $22.4722/MMBtu for the February 23-24 delivery.This Trafigura offer was the first bid for spot LNG cargoes Pakistan received for its tenders in about a year.However, several reports said that Pakistan LNG did not take this offer due to high prices.Pakistan gets most of its supplies under long-term contracts from Qatar and on the spot market, however, last year prices surged and Europe took most of the available spot supplies.In July this year, Pakistan also signed a one-year deal to buy one LNG cargo per month from Azerbaijan’s Socar.GIIGNL data shows that Pakistan’s LNG imports dropped by 16 percent to 6.91 million tons last year due to high prices.The country imported almost all of these volumes under long-term contracts from Qatar, or some 6.10 million tons, the data shows.Spot prices dropped considerably this year, prompting Pakistan and other Asian countries such as Bangladesh to return to buying spot LNG.

Nigeria loses N843 billion to gas flaring in 2022-2023 -- From January 2022 to August 2023, oil companies in Nigeria flared gas worth over $1billion. The unutilized gas had the capacity to produce a significant 17,100 gigawatt-hours of electricity, The responsible companies could potentially be subject to penalties totaling $342 million, which is roughly equivalent to N251 billion. Oil companies in Nigeria flared gas worth over $1 billion from January 2022 to August 2023, resulting in a financial loss of N843 billion to the government, according to data from the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA). The unutilised gas had the capacity to produce a significant 17,100 gigawatt-hours of electricity, alongside releasing 9.1 million tonnes of detrimental carbon dioxide into the environment. According to NOSDRA's latest gas flaring report, oil and gas companies operating in Nigeria burned 147.1 billion standard cubic feet (SCF) of gas, equivalent to a value of $514.9 million from January to August 2022. Moreover, in the same period of 2023, these companies flared even larger quantities of gas, amounting to 171.1 billion SCF, with an estimated value of around $599 million or N453 billion. This amounts to a combined loss of N847 billion between the corresponding periods in the previous and current years. As per the report, the volume of gas burned during the first eight months of 2023 showed a significant increase, with a 16.28 per cent higher rate compared to the same period in 2022. The responsible companies could potentially be subject to penalties totalling $342 million, which is roughly equivalent to N251 billion. However, the Federal Government has not collected a significant portion of these penalties. In contrast, the oil spill remediation agency reported that between January and August 2022, oil companies incurred penalties of approximately $294 million (N223 billion) for oil spills. The gas wasted in 2022 had the potential to generate 14,700 gigawatt-hours of electricity and resulted in carbon dioxide emissions equivalent to 7,800 metric tonnes.

Substantial Drilling Activity to Help Elevate Liquid and Gas Output | Rigzone -- In a statement sent to Rigzone recently, Westwood Global Energy Group reported that “substantial” drilling activity, averaging 53,000 wells per year through to 2030, will help elevate the production of crude, condensate, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) to a “high” of 173 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030. That figure represents a nine percent jump from 2022’s figure of 159 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, according to the statement. It also marks a seven percent increase on the 2020 average of 151 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and a two percent increase on 2023’s expected average of 162 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, Westwood Senior Analyst Ben Wilby outlined in a separate comment to Rigzone. In its statement, Westwood highlighted that its findings indicate that 428,000 wells are expected to be drilled over the forecast, “with onshore accounting for 95 percent, dominated by China, Russia, and the United States”. Offshore, more than 17,000 surface wells are forecast, Westwood noted, outlining that activities will be driven by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, “while 2,000 subsea wells are expected between 2023-2030, led by the Americas”. Liquids production (crude, condensate, and NGLs) is forecast at 100 million barrels per day by 2030, according to Westwood, which highlighted that this is up eight percent on 2022, “driven by increased crude production from deepwater areas, such as Brazil and Guyana, as well as additional supply from the Middle East”. “Crucially, much of the basis for this supply has been sanctioned,” Westwood said in the statement. “Between Brazil and Guyana, three million barrels per day of floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) capacity have passed final investment decision (FID) but are yet to commence commercial operations, while many of the major expansion projects in Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also been sanctioned, with construction underway,” the company added. Gas production is expected to increase 10 percent by 2030 from new projects in areas such as Mozambique, the Mediterranean, onshore U.S., and brownfield developments, such as the North Field expansion offshore Qatar, Westwood pointed out. In the statement, Wilby said, “the level of investment seen in the last few years will lead to a material increase in structural production capacity over the forecast”. “As a result, continued OPEC+ intervention will likely be required beyond 2024 to ensure a balanced market and for oil prices to remain at or above Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven range,” he added. “Deeper oil production cuts in 2Q and 3Q, including an additional one million barrel per day cut by Saudi Arabia, a move intended for July, has been extended to the end of 2023. The cuts could see Saudi Arabian crude production fall to nine million barrels per day for much of 2H 2023 with uncertainty over when production will be restored,” he continued. “Supply additions, especially in the latter years of the forecast, remain at the pre-sanctioning stage, which represents a downward risk to expected output, especially if prices drop below $60 per barrel,” Wilby went on to state. When Rigzone asked Westwood about the main risks to its forecasts, Wilby said fluctuation in oil and gas demand remains key, “as this has an impact on commodity prices, which in turn impacts investments”. “An uplift in demand post-pandemic, coupled with OPEC+ supply side market intervention has helped Brent prices recover from a 2020 average of $42 per barrel to an average of $84 per barrel 2021-2023. However, a material change from the expected demand trajectory remains a clear risk,” he added. “In terms of supply, numerous production-boosting projects, especially in Africa, still need to be sanctioned; hence increasing downside risk to the outlook should oil prices decline below a level that supports appetite for investment,” Wilby continued.

Shell Bay, Banks Peninsula oil spill: Plan to remove boat in the works - A plan to remove the vessel at risk of spilling oil on to an endangered penguin colony after it ran aground will be drafted this week. The 25m Austro Carina, owned and operated by Lyttelton-based Pegasus Fishing Ltd, ran aground near picturesque Shell Bay on the southeastern side of the Banks Peninsula on Sunday, September 24. The 140-150 tonne boat is currently still stuck with the gaping hole at the bottom of a 100-metre, potentially unstable cliff. The unfortunate position of the boat means it cannot be reached, according to the regional council, Environment Canterbury (ECan). “Access to the vessel by water has been heavily restricted by heavy seas, the rugged shoreline, and poor weather over the last week,” Emma Parr, Regional On-Scene Commander for the Harbourmaster’s Office, said. “Access from land is on foot and weather-dependent.” Equipment for a refloat of this vessel is not available in New Zealand. A helicopter recovered the skipper and three crew of the vessel, which was carrying 10,000 litres of diesel and 400 litres of hydraulic oil. . The risk to the environment due to the oil is a real concern to the number of endangered species that call Shelly Bay home. This includes the endangered yellow-eyed penguin, or hoiho, the white-flippered penguin and little blue penguins. The bay also hosts the nationally vulnerable spotted shag, along with seals and their pups. In an update on the current situation, Parr said diesel is currently slowly leaking from the boat. “The advantage of this is the fuel naturally disperses well, with the environment able to cope and recover quickly,” Parr said.

IOPC pays Mindoro oil spill victims | The Manila Times -- The provincial government of Oriental Mindoro has announced the initial release of the compensation for fishermen who were affected by an oil spill after a tanker sank in February this year. Oriental Mindoro Gov. Humerlito Dolor said on his social media post that the International Oil Pollution Compensation (IOPC) had distributed compensation ranging from P3,000 to P70,000 to 816 out of the 827 eligible claimants. The post did not specify where those 816 claimants came from. However, the post added that eleven other claimants either died or transferred to new residences. Dolor said that the IOPC is still looking for ways on how to distribute the claims to the relatives or legitimate beneficiary of the unclaimed amounts. In the same post, Dolor said that distribution to affected residents in Naujan was undertaken from September 20-22 and in Pinamalayan from Sept. 27 to 30, 2023. The MT Princess Empress sank off Oriental Mindoro waters on February 28, causing widespread loss of livelihood in the province, especially for fisherfolks because of the huge amount of oil that spilled from it. One of the most devastated towns though was Pola, whose mayor, Jennifer "Ina Alegre" Cruz, said they have not yet received any amount of compensation from the IOPC fund. In a telephone interview, Cruz told The Manila Times that as of this month, her town had not received any compensation from the IOPC and that the municipal government is the one doing everything to provide for the needs of the affected fisherfolk. "We have more or less five thousand affected fishermen but until now, we have not received any compensation. Even the representative of the IOPC Fund had not communicated with us or our affected residents," said Cruz, adding she thought they were being left out in the compensation. The mayor is also asking for the promised fuel subsidy for the affected fishermen that was released to the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR). A source from the agency said that the provincial government told them that the funds are already scheduled for release to beneficiaries. Dolor said in the same social media post that the "schedule of payment is based on the date of the filing of the claims after the claims caravan made a round to affected areas in coordination with the Provincial Government of Oriental Mindoro and local government units (LGUs)." The governor also clarified that the payment is only provisional or initial while experts are still finalizing the assessment of the actual damages and that they are pushing the claims of the affected residents first before the province files its own claim.

Saudis to Stick With 1MM Barrel Oil Supply Cut For Now - Saudi Arabia and Russia said they will stick with oil supply curbs of more than 1 million barrels a day to the end of the year as a rally in prices falters. The leaders of the OPEC+ coalition announced the plans in separate official statements on Wednesday. Riyadh has slashed crude production by 1 million barrels a day, and Moscow is curbing exports by 300,000 a day, on top of earlier cuts made with fellow OPEC+ nations. Oil prices surged to almost $100 a barrel in London last week as the two nations choke supplies just as global demand hits records, draining inventories at the fastest pace in years. But the rally has since cooled, with Brent futures retreating to near $90 on Wednesday amid signs that the price spike is encouraging the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer. JPMorgan Chase & Co. says “demand destruction has begun” as fuel costs squeeze consumers. The two oil allies reaffirmed their plans with identical wording in separate statements, released first on the Saudi Press Agency and then shortly after by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. The output curbs are in intended “to reinforce the precautionary efforts made by OPEC+ countries with the aim of supporting the stability and balance of oil markets,” they said. Yet OPEC’s own data indicate the measures will leave global markets severely short this quarter, potentially draining inventories by more than 3 million barrels a day — the fastest pace in years. High prices stand to benefit Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as his kingdom splashes out on everything from futuristic cities and international telecommunications deals to top-flight footballers and golfers. They are also a critical source of extra revenue for President Vladimir Putin as his country wages war on Ukraine. That’s inflicting pain on consumers. Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Puri told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday that oil prices need to fall to levels of around $80 a barrel to be good for the economy. The world’s third biggest oil user is continually telling producing nations that crude is too costly, an official told the Adipec energy conference in Abu Dhabi the previous day. Meanwhile, US policymakers have signaled that monetary policy may need to remain tight. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said the US will likely need to raise rates once more this year, and that rising gas prices resonate strongly with consumers. Key nations among the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners will hold an online monitoring meeting later today, but with most members unable to join in the Saudi-Russia action, delegates say it’s unlikely to make any policy adjustments. The full 23-nation OPEC+ coalition will hold a ministerial meeting on Nov. 26 to review policy for 2024.

OPEC+ Leaves Oil Production Levels Unchanged - The OPEC+ panel reviewing the oil market ended a brief meeting on Wednesday without recommending any changes to the current oil production policy, hours after Saudi Arabia and Russia said in separate statements they would stick to their respective voluntary supply cuts by the end of the year.The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the OPEC+ group, which met via videoconference today, affirmed the commitment of the several OPEC+ members and thanked Saudi Arabia and Russia for their voluntary supply cuts and “expressed its full recognition and support for the efforts of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.” The committee will also “stand ready to take additional measures at any time,” OPEC said in a statement.The next JMMC meeting is scheduled to be held on November 26, 2023.Earlier today, Saudi Arabia and Russia, the key OPEC+ partners, said they would keep their respective production and export cuts in November, and review the decisions next month to decide if the cuts should be deepened or eased.Saudi Arabia said early on Wednesday it would continue cutting an extra 1 million barrels per day (bpd) from its crude oil production in November and December, and Russia said in a separate statement it would continue to reduce oil exports by 300,000 bpd until the end of the year.“This voluntary cut decision will be reviewed next month to consider deepening the cut or increasing production,” Saudi Arabia said.Both Saudi Arabia and Russia reiterated today that the ongoing oil supply cuts are aimed at keeping “stability and balance on the oil markets.”

Oil falls more than 5% on weak U.S. gasoline demand - -- Oil prices settled down more than $5 on Wednesday as fuel demand destruction and a bleaker macroeconomic picture took center stage in the day's trade. Brent crude oil futures settled down 5.11, or 5.6%, to $85.81 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $5.01, or 5.6%, to $84.22. At session lows, both benchmarks were down by more than $5, and heating oil and gasoline futures also fell by more than 5%. Crude oil prices have fallen by about $10 since last week's settlement. Finished motor gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, fell last week to about 8 million barrels per day, its lowest since the start of this year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday. Some of that demand destruction could be due to torrential rains which brought flooding to New York last Friday and post-tropical storm Ophelia, which doused the Northeast with torrential downpours in late September, said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. Seasonally, U.S. gasoline consumption is at the lowest level in 22 years, according to commodity analysts at JP Morgan. A 30% spike in fuel prices in the third quarter of this year depressed demand, resulting in a counter seasonal plunge of 223,000 barrels per day, the analysts wrote in a Wednesday note. Gasoline stocks rose by 6.5 million barrels, far exceeding expectations of a 200,000-barrel rise. U.S. nationwide crude stocks fell by 2.2 million barrels to 414.1 million barrels in the week to Sept. 29, but stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the WTI delivery hub, rose for the first time in eight weeks. Saudi Arabia's energy ministry confirmed it will continue its voluntary 1 million barrel per day (bpd) crude supply cut until year end, while Russia said it will continue its 300,000 bpd crude export cuts, and in November will review its voluntary 500,000 bpd output cut set in April. But crack spreads, a proxy for refining margins, fell below $20 a barrel on Wednesday to the lowest level in about 1.5 years. This margin "freefall" indicates high prices and interest rates are curtailing crude inventory purchases and increasing odds of a recession, "This could force further demand weakness that the Saudis and Russia may be unable to counter via additional production cuts," Economic news also pressured oil prices. Growth in the U.S. services sector slowed in September, data showed. The daily Kommersant reported that Russia could be ready to ease its diesel ban in coming days, citing unidentified sources. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) online meeting kept the group's output policy unchanged. Oil markets are heading in the "right direction" by balancing supply and demand, Kuwait's oil minister Saad Al Barrak said, according to state media agency KUNA. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the Saudi and Russian cuts have helped to balance oil markets, and said the domestic market benefited from the Kremlin's diesel and gasoline export ban.

Oil Plummets Amid Demand Outlook Concerns - Oil plunged the most in more than a year as early signals that demand is flagging exacerbated markets’ unease over the prospect of a punishing stretch of high interest rates. West Texas Intermediate slumped 5.6% to settle below $85 a barrel, the biggest one-day drop since September 2022. Despite signs of a tight market currently, the prospect of more supplies in the future, as well as technical selling and algorithm-driven traders rushing to exit, pushed the price decline into a full-blown rout. After rallying about 40% from mid-June to late September, crude has reversed course over the past week amid a drumbeat of commentary that the surge was overdone. The retreat has come against a backdrop of rising angst about interest rates and the economy that has rattled equity and bond markets in recent weeks. “It is clear that the global growth outlook will be taking a major hit over the next year, which spells trouble for the crude demand outlook,” said Ed Moya, senior markets analyst at Oanda. “Energy traders quickly realized the path to $100 oil isn’t quite there.” Both WTI and global benchmark Brent have now dropped below their 50-day moving averages, a bearish technical signal. Gasoline futures also plummeted 6% to trade at $2.22 a gallon after data revealed that demand for the fuel dropped to the lowest seasonal level in 25 years, signaling slower economic growth. Meanwhile, inventories at the largest US storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, increased for the first time in eight weeks. Still, stockpiles nationwide continued to drain to the lowest since December 2022, and a key North American pipeline has also seen lower flows this week. Earlier, OPEC+ leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia committed to sticking with production curbs of more than 1 million barrels a day until the end of the year. Those supply cuts had spurred the recent rally by tightening the market, shrinking inventories and increasing competition for prompt barrels. But recent sessions have seen investors fretting that the Federal Reserve may not be done raising interest rates, strengthening the dollar, which makes commodities more expensive for most buyers. Major gains in US Treasury yields have also hurt raw materials. WTI for November delivery shed $5.01 to settle at $84.22 a barrel in New York. Brent for December settlement fell $5.11 to $85.81 a barrel.

Oil Posts Largest Weekly Loss Since March | Rigzone -- Oil set its biggest weekly drop since March as the possibility of higher interest rates roils financial markets, overshadowing the tight physical setup for crude that caused prices to skyrocket in the third quarter. Growing angst about further rate increases and a longer period of hawkish monetary policy has provided the backdrop for oil’s recent selloff. At the same time, technical selling and algorithmic trading have pushed the decline into a full-blown rout. West Texas Intermediate settled around $83 a barrel, tumbling $8 this week alone. The commodity is now at the lowest since August, having erased gains from the extension of production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Prices had rallied more than 30% amid the monthslong OPEC+ campaign to reduce supplies. Oil lost ground this week after US government figures showed declining gasoline consumption and increasing inventories of the motor fuel. The report ignited a debate about whether an earlier run-up in prices was destroying product demand, though banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Barclays Plc say the concerns are overdone. “The recent correction in oil prices has been too rapid and was largely unwarranted in our view,” Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said. “The narrative of price-driven demand destruction does not stand in the face of the fact that very little of the recent run-up in oil prices has been passed on to the consumers.” Brent and WTI have slumped toward oversold territory on a relative strength index basis, just a week after being overbought. The benchmarks also have rapidly tumbled beneath their lower Bollinger Bands, another sign the slump may be overdone. Still, sliding margins for refined products cloud the outlook. At one point this week, gasoline was trading less than $8 above crude, halving from two weeks prior. Diesel’s premium over crude also fell to the lowest since July, in part as Russia lifted an export ban for its oil producers. WTI for November delivery rose 48 cents to settle at $82.79 a barrel in New York. It’s fell 9% for the week. Brent for December settlement was rose 51 cents to settle at $84.58 a barrel.

Report: Saudis Determined to Get Defense Pact With US for Israel Normalization - Saudi Arabia is determined to secure a defense pact with the US in exchange for normalizing with Israel regardless of whether or not concessions are made to the Palestinians, Reuters reported Friday, citing regional sources. Riyadh is looking for a commitment from the US that it would defend Saudi Arabia if it comes under attack, similar to NATO’s Article 5, which outlines that an attack on one alliance member is treated as an attack on all. The US is not looking to go as far as an Article 5-style guarantee, but the Reuters report said Saudi Arabia “would not settle for less than binding assurances of US protection if it faced attack.” A formal US mutual defense guarantee for Saudi Arabia would risk reigniting the war in Yemen, where a ceasefire between the Saudis and the Houthis has held relatively well since April 2022. Such a commitment from the US also risks sparking another war as it would embolden Riyadh in the region. Saudi officials previously said normalizing with Israel hinges on the Palestinians being granted statehood, but they have backed down on that demand. The Saudis are still paying lip service to Palestinian concerns, but the Reuters report said it’s not a priority for Riyadh.\ “The normalization will be between Israel and Saudi Arabia. If the Palestinians oppose it the kingdom will continue in its path,” one of the regional sources told Reuters. “Saudi Arabia supports a peace plan for the Palestinians, but this time it wanted something for Saudi Arabia, not just for the Palestinians.” It’s unlikely the Saudis would be able to leverage concessions for the Palestinians toward a state under the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since his coalition includes extremist settlers who want to annex the West Bank.

US shoots down Turkish drone that approached American troops in Syria - The U.S. military on Thursday shot down an armed drone belonging to NATO ally Turkey after it came too close for comfort to American troops in Syria, according to the Pentagon’s top spokesperson. Press secretary Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, who called the event a “regrettable incident,” said the drone came within less than half a mile of U.S. troops as the Turkish aircraft was bombing targets nearby in northeastern Syria. As American forces were forced to go to bunkers for safety, the drone was deemed a potential threat and was shot down by F-16 aircraft around 11:40 a.m. local time. No U.S. forces were injured during the incident, he said. Ryder added that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Turkish counterpart by phone afterward to reaffirm “our commitment to continue to closely coordinate,” adding that the talk was “fruitful.” Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. CQ Brown also spoke with his counterpart by phone on “the need to follow common deconfliction protocols to ensure the safety of our personnel in Syria following today’s incident,” according to Joint Staff spokesperson Col. Dave Butler. This marks the first time Washington has brought down an aircraft of the NATO ally.

Turkish Warplanes Strike US-Allied Kurds in Syria - The conflict between US allies continued to escalate when a Turkish warplane bombed sites used by Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria. Ankara and Washington are members of the North Atlantic alliance, and the Syrian Kurds have acted as America’s proxy force for several years. The strikes followed the US shooting down a Turkish drone in Syria that Washington says threatened American troops.On Friday, the Turkish military reported hitting 30 targets in Syria. The statement said the sites were used by the PKK, a militia of Kurds from Turkey. Ankara labels the PKK as a terrorist group. Two members of the group targeted the Turkish Interior Ministry this week. Only the attackers were killed, one died after detonating a suicide bomb.The strikes followed the US shooting down a Turkish drone in Syria. The Department of Defense said that some American soldiers were forced to take cover. On Thursday, Gen. Patrick Ryder, the Pentagon Press Secretary, said the decision to shoot down the drone “was made out of due diligence and the inherent right of self-defense to take appropriate action to protect US forces.”Ankara downplayed the incident and said it was due to a miscommunication in the “deconflicting mechanism.” Ryder explained the Pentagon does not believe Turkey was targeting American soldiers.Within Syria, the PKK is closely aligned with the YPG. The YPG is a Kurdish militia backed by the US. Under the banner of the Syrian Democratic Forces, the YPG rules the portion of Syria that is occupied by US troops. Ankara has launched several protests against Washington’s support for the YPG, which Turkey labels as a terror group that aids the PKK. American troops have armed and trained the Kurdish militia to fight against the Islamic State. However, since IS has lost its territory in Syria, the YPG has started to clash with Arabs who live in the Kurdish-controlled territory.

At Least 80 Killed in Drone Attack on Syria Military College Ceremony - At least 80 people have been killed in a drone attack that targeted a graduation ceremony at a military college in Syria’s central Homs province on Thursday, the country’s health minister has said.The Syrian government said members of the armed forces and civilians were among the casualties. Health Minister Hasan Ghabbagh said the 80 killed included six women and six children, and 240 were wounded.The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights put the death toll higher, saying over 100 people were killed, but the number isn’t confirmed. Ghabbagh said his casualty figures were based on “initial data,” suggesting the official death toll could rise.Syrian Defense Minister Ali Abbas was present at the graduating ceremony, but reports say he left about 20 minutes before the drone bombardment. In a statement, Syria’s military said the attack was conducted by “armed terrorist organizations supported by well-known international parties.”The Syrian government did not blame a specific group. After the attack, Syrian strikes were reported in the northwestern Idlib province, which is mainly controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an al-Qaeda offshoot.According to The Cradle, the Syrian army targeted the headquarters of the Turkic Islamic Party, an extremist Uyghur group based in Idlib that wants to establish an Islamic State in China’s Xinjiang region.

Hundreds Dead: Israel PM Says ‘We Are at War’ After Hamas Attacks By 'Land, Air, and Sea' - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared, “We are at war, this is not an operation,” after Hamas launched thousands of missiles and seized villages near Gaza. The political leader of Hamas said that the ongoing attacks are a response to the Israeli treatment of Palestinians at the al-Aqsa Mosque.On Saturday morning, fighters from Hamas invaded villages near Gaza. The group says its fighters used paratroops, ships, and cut through the border fence to conduct the operations. Hamas claims it have captured several Israeli soldiers and villages.Human rights groups consider Gaza an “open-air prison.” Most Palestinians living in the region are refugees. Gaza is one of the most densely populated areas on the planet, with 2 million people living in 140 sq. miles. Israel severely restricts the amount of food, fuel, and water the people of Gaza can access.Hamas used para-sails to fly over the border and destroyed parts of the Israeli fence to break out of Gaza. In addition to the ground operations, the Palestinian militia launched thousands of rockets into Israel, with cities such as Tel Aviv reporting damage. Reports say Hamas has fired between 2,000 and 5,000 munitions. Israeli officials say at least 230 have been killed and hundreds wounded. The Palestinian Health Ministry reports 200 Palestinians have been killed and an estimated 1,000 wounded. Reports say between 13 and 21 Israeli villages were ‘infiltrated’ by Hamas.An Israeli official said the Palestinian forces were able to capture the headquarters of an Israeli military unit near Gaza. “The headquarters of the Gaza division in camp Ra’im is under the control of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam brigades,” the official explained.Photos and videos on Twitter show Hamas returning to Gaza with captured Israeli military equipment. Additional images show Israeli Brigadier General Nimrod Aloni was captured by Hamas, although this has not been confirmed by either side.Hours after the attack began, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the start of Operation Iron Swords. “We are at war, not an operation. Hamas has launched a murderous surprise attack against the State of Israel and its citizens,” he posted on Twitter. “I ordered first of all to cleanse the settlements of the terrorists who had infiltrated and ordered a large-scale mobilization of reserves. The enemy will pay a price he has never known.”

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran say Israel has only itself to blame for Hamas attacks  - The governments of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran appeared to blame Israel for its escalating conflict with Hamas on Saturday.The Palestinian militant group launched a mass attack on Israeli forces and settlements, killing at least 250 people in Israel and 232 in Gaza early Saturday, according to Israeli local media and the Palestinian government. While leaders in the U.S. and Europe quickly denounced the attack and gave support for Israel, the three Middle Eastern nations criticized the country over its treatment of Palestinians.“The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is closely following the developments of the unprecedented situation between a number of Palestinian factions and the Israeli occupation forces, which has resulted in a high level of violence on several fronts there,” the country’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement. “The Kingdom recalls its repeated warnings of the dangers of the explosion of the situation as a result of the continued occupation, and deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, and the repetition of systematic provocations against its sanctities,” the statement continues.The condemnation comes as both the Israeli and Saudi governments have attempted to normalize relations in recent years, at the encouragement of the U.S.A senior Iranian government advisor explicitly endorsed Hamas in the conflict, the most direct support for the militant group from any government official globally.“We congratulate the Palestinian fighters,” advisor Yahya Rahim Safavi said, according to state media via Reuters. “We will stand by the Palestinian fighters until the liberation of Palestine and Jerusalem.”Iran state media showed video of parliament members chanting in support of Hamas on Saturday, saying “Death to Israel” and “Palestine is victorious, Israel will be destroyed”.Iran has funded and supplied Hamas for years as part of its decades-long conflict with Israel.The Qatari Foreign Ministry also blamed Israel for the violence.“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs holds Israel alone responsible for the current escalation due to this ongoing violations of the rights of the Palestinian people, the latest of which is the repeated raids on the blessed Al-Aqsa Mosque under of the protection of Israeli police,” the ministry said in a statement.

Israel Defense spokesperson says Israel hasn’t regained full control -A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces said his country hasn’t regained full control in the wake of attacks from militant group Hamas Saturday.“There are still active battles between Israeli security forces and terrorists inside Gaza,” Lt. Col.Jonathan Conricus told CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer. “And unfortunately, we have not yet been able to re-establish full control over all of our communities and all of our bases.”“This is the top priority,” he added.Hamas’ attack involved its militants infiltrating Israeli towns and the launching of missiles into Israel. Fighting in the region has resulted in the deaths of at least 250 people in Israel and 232 in Gaza, according to Israeli local media and the Palestinian government. Israeli Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu called the attack “murderous” in a televised address Saturday.“We are at war — not in an operation or at rounds, but in a war,” Netanyahu said. “The enemy will pay an unprecedented price…We are at war and we will win it.”President Joe Biden released a statement Saturday condemning the attacks. “The United States unequivocally condemns this appalling assault against Israel by Hamas terrorists from Gaza, and I made clear to Prime Minister Netanyahu that we stand ready to offer all appropriate means of support to the Government and people of Israel,” Biden said in a statement.

China Says It Warned Another Philippine Resupply Mission in South China Sea - Another encounter between Chinese and Philippine vessels occurred in the South China Sea on Wednesday, with Chinese authorities saying they warned boats making an “unapproved” entry near Second Thomas Shoal, a reef claimed by both Manila and Beijing.The Philippine side said it conducted a successful resupply for troops stationed on the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era ship Manila grounded on the shoal in 1999 to assert its claims.Manila’s National Security Council said Philippine vessels resupplied the ship despite “a significant number of China’s coastguard and maritime militia vessels” that attempted to “block, harass and interfere” with the mission.A spokesman for China’s Marine police said the Chinese Coast Guard “warned, followed and effectively regulated” the Philippine vessels, but it’s unclear if China tried to block the resupply mission.There have been several encounters between China and the Philippines around Second Thomas Shoal, which is part of the Spratly Islands. During one incident in early August, a Chinese vessel fired a water cannon at Philippine boats trying to resupply the Sierra Madre.Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has been more confrontational in his approach to Manila’s maritime dispute with Beijing than his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. In another recent incident, the Philippine Coast Guard said it cut a “barrier” that was blocking Philippine vessels from entering Scarborough Shoal, another disputed reef in the South China Sea.

Zelensky Pitches Arms Makers on Producing Weapons in Ukraine - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday urged arms makers to produce weapons inside Ukraine in a speech opening Ukraine’s first International Defense Industries Forum.“Right now, for the next decades, the most powerful defense-industrial complexes are being determined, what their priorities will be, and what the standard of defense in the world will be. It is being determined precisely in Ukraine,” Zelensky said.According to Zelensky, the event was attended by representatives from 252 weapons firms from 30 countries. Helping build up Ukraine’s military industry is part of NATO’s plans to provide long-term support for Kyiv. After Zelensky recently visited Washington, he said he reached a deal on joint weapons production with the US.“We have reached agreements on joint production – essentially the establishment of a new industrial ecosystem that will strengthen both Ukraine and the United States, and all our partners. This is one of the key outcomes of my negotiations with President Biden in Washington,” Zelensky said on Friday.The Ukrainian leader said his country would establish a “special economic regime for the defense-industrial complex.” He said the purpose is to “give all the opportunities to realize their potential to every company that works for the sake of defense — in Ukraine and with Ukraine or that wants to come to Ukraine.”Producing weapons in Ukraine could be a lucrative endeavor for Western arms makers, although the factories risk becoming targets for Russian missiles. A few days before Zelensky’s speech, a Ukrainian official told the Spanish news outlet ABC that an unspecified missile production facility was moved outside of Ukraine to keep it from being targeted by Russia.

Russia may be testing nuclear-powered missile: report - Russia may be preparing to test an experimental nuclear-powered cruise missile with a range of up to 14,000 miles, according to The New York Times. The missile, known as the Burevestnik, has failed in its previous trials and once caused an accident that resulted in several deaths. But the Burevestnik, also known in the West as the RS-SSC-X-09 Skyfall, would give Russia an extremely long-range intercontinental ballistic missile if future tests are successful and the weapon enters Moscow’s arsenal. The New York Times reported satellite images of a base in the Russian Arctic indicate movement of aircraft and vehicles consistent with previous tests, while Russia has also issued an aviation notice also consistent with previous tests that has been extended through Friday. The U.S. has also flown surveillance aircraft near the base for the past two weeks, a small increase in activity that could indicate concern from Washington. It’s still unclear if the missile has already been tested or if it will be tested in the near future, according to The Times. The Burevestnik was introduced in 2018, part of a new array of nuclear arms designed to achieve longer flight and faster speeds. Little is known about the missile, including its design, as Russia has kept it closely under wraps. The experimental nuclear-powered missile has failed several times, including an August 2019 crash that killed five scientists. Part of the problem Russian engineers have encountered is activating a nuclear propulsion unit, which is supposed to trigger after solid fuel rocket boosters get the missile into the air.

Putin says Russia has tested nuclear-powered missile, could revoke atomic test ban -Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed Thursday that his nation has successfully tested an experimental nuclear-powered missile and warned that Moscow may revoke a ban on atomic bomb testing. Putin, speaking at a think tank-sponsored forum, said testing on the cruise missile Burevestnik, which has a range of up to 14,000 miles, was recently completed, though he did not name an exact date. His announcement comes just days after it was reported that Russia was preparing to test the nuclear weapon in the Arctic. The Burevestnik is an extremely long-range cruise missile, meaning it does not follow a simple trajectory like ballistic missiles and remains in the atmosphere after launch. Putin introduced the missile in 2018, but the rocket has failed in several tests until now. While little is known about the missile, it’s a completely new type of weapon system, activating a nuclear propulsion unit after solid fuel rocket boosters boost the missile into the air. Putin also said Thursday he had finished developing an intercontinental ballistic missile called the Sarmat, which is believed to be capable of carrying up to 15 nuclear warheads. Putin said his strategic forces would “soon” move toward mass production and placing the Sarmat “on combat duty.” “As a rule, experts say that this is a new weapon and it is necessary to make sure that the special warhead will work without failures, and tests must be carried out,” he said at the event in Sochi. Putin has repeatedly threatened western allies with nuclear weapons during the war in Ukraine and he moved tactical nuclear bombs to ally Belarus over the summer. Earlier this year, he also paused a strategic treaty with the U.S. that placed limits on the number of bombs both countries can have and ensured Washington and Moscow shared details about testing. At the Sochi event, Putin signaled he may disregard the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban, which bans all nuclear testing, because the U.S. signed the treaty but never ratified it, while Russia did ratify it.

Party That Opposes Ukraine Aid Wins Slovakia Election - A populist party in Slovakia that opposes providing military assistance to Ukraine has won the country’s elections, a vote that could significantly change the NATO member’s foreign policy and support for the proxy war.Former Prime Minister Robert Fico, who leads the Slovak Social Democracy party, known as Smer-SD, campaigned on ending military aid to Ukraine. Fico doubled down on his position after winning the vote, saying, “people in Slovakia have bigger problems than Ukraine.”Smer-SD won 29.9% of the vote and 42 seats out of the nation’s 150-seat parliament. Since the party did not win a majority of seats in parliament, it needs to form a coalition government. Fico said he was ready to form a government once given the mandate by the president.Fico’s expected partners are the leftist Hlas party, which is a spin-off of Smer-SD and gained 14.7% of the vote, and the nationalist Slovak National Party, which received 5.6% of the vote. If the three parties join forces, they will have 79 seats in parliament.EU officials fear that if Fico successfully forms a government, Slovakia will join Hungary in opposing EU sanctions on Russia and military support for Ukraine. The Progressive Slovakia party, which is aligned with EU policies, came in second place, taking 18% of the vote.

Pro-Russian politician wins Slovakia's parliamentary election | CNN -- A party headed by a pro-Kremlin figure came out top after securing more votes than expected in an election in Slovakia, preliminary results show, in what could pose a challenge to NATO and EU unity on Ukraine. According to preliminary results released by Slovakia’s Statistical Office at 9 a.m. local time, Robert Fico’s populist SMER party won 22.9% of the vote. Progressive Slovakia (PS), a liberal and pro-Ukrainian party won 17.9%. Fico, a two-time former prime minister, now has a chance to regain the job but must first seek coalition partners as his party did not secure a big enough share of the vote to govern on its own. Speaking after his victory, Fico said he “will do everything” in his power to kickstart Russia-Ukraine peace talks. “More killing is not going to help anyone,” Fico said. Negotiations are unlikely to be welcomed in Ukraine, as for now they would likely involve proposals in which territory is ceded to Russia – a non-starter for Kyiv. The moderate-left Hlas party, led by a former SMER member and formed as an offshoot of SMER following internal disputes, came third with 14.7% of the vote, and could play kingmaker. With seven political parties reaching the 5% threshold needed to enter the parliament, coalition negotiations will almost certainly include multiple players and could be long and messy.While not a landslide, SMER’s result is better than expected – last opinion polls published earlier this week showed SMER and PS neck and neck. Fico has pledged an immediate end to Slovak military support for Ukraine and promised to block Ukraine’s NATO ambitions in what would upend Slovakia’s staunch support for Ukraine.Michal Šimečka, the leader of PS, said the result was “bad news for the country.” “The fact of the matter is that SMER is the winner. And we of course respect that although we think it’s bad news for the country. And it will be even worse news if Mr Fico forms the government,” he said at a news conference early on Sunday. Slovakia’s President Zuzana Čaputová said before the election that she would ask the leader of the strongest party to form the government, meaning Fico will get the first stab at forming a government.

Canada told to remove dozens of diplomats from India: report --India told Canada that it must remove 41 of its 62 diplomats from the country following continued escalating tensions between the countries.Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged that Indian agents were behind the June assassination of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Vancouver. Trudeau’s allegations, despite no arrests being made in the murder case, set off condemnation from India, which dismissed the accusations.India expelled a Canadian diplomat in September, and is now requiring many more to leave.An official who spoke with The Associated Press (AP) on the condition of anonymity, confirmed the report that dozens of Canadian diplomats have been ordered to leave India. Trudeau could not confirm the number of diplomats told to leave India, but said Canada is not trying to escalate tensions with the country.“Obviously, we are going through an extremely challenging time with India right now, but that’s why it is so important for us to have diplomats on the ground working with the Indian government and there to support Canadians and Canadian families,” Trudeau told the AP. “We’re taking this extremely seriously, but we’re going to continue to engage responsibly and constructively with the Indian government.”

Labor government starves Aboriginal schools of funds in Australia’s Northern Territory -- In the midst of the Australian federal Labor government’s campaign for a yes vote in its Voice referendum, claiming it will improve the lives of indigenous people, data has emerged showing that the Labor administration in the Northern Territory is grossly underfunding schools in Aboriginal communities. Falling school attendances in Australia's Northern Territory (NT), particularly in remote areas. [Photo: Facebook/NT Department of Education] The territory Labor government is continuing to impose a punitive schools funding model based on attendance, not enrolment. This regime was initially implemented by a Country Liberal government in 2015, but Labor has maintained it since taking office in 2016. This has exasperated the vast social inequality involved, creating a cycle of worsening literacy rates. Indigenous people make up nearly 30 percent of the Northern Territory’s population of about a quarter of a million, and almost 8 percent of Australia’s indigenous population. About 45 percent of the territory’s young people are indigenous. Many schools are not receiving adequate support, with attendance rates as low as 20 percent in some cases. This has resulted in 58 percent of all students and 85 percent of indigenous students in the Northern Territory falling below minimum literacy and numeracy standards. Remote Aboriginal homeland communities have been hit hardest. Many students are learning in buildings without power or water, and 78 of these communities have no access to local secondary education, resulting in high dropout rates and crime. This is a breach of the basic social right that every child has access to free, high-quality education. In some instances, students are receiving only a part-time education, with a registered teacher providing classes just once or twice a week. Many local assistant teachers are forced to run classrooms for months. The Australian reported that a remote school at Gamardi, in central Arnhem Land, had its first registered teacher appear on May 18, over three months after the start of the school year. One in five Northern Territory students have no money spent on their education and over half the student cohort lack funding at some schools. In 2022, it was reported that a school in Gunbalanya had not received any funding for 121 of its 229 students and a school in Yuendumu had 89 unfunded students out of 165. In 2021, 34 of 151 government schools received less than 50 percent of the allocated income in their school budgets. Every school but three of these had an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Island student population of more than 95 percent. The Australian claims that the budget shortfall is due to a bloated education department bureaucracy and proposes reducing employment in the territory’s public service by 10,000, as suggested by former senior economist Rolf Gerritsen. In reality, the deprivation of students flows directly from a funding model that blames schools, communities and students for low attendance rates, which are bound up with poor facilities and deep social problems. This model only multiplies the problems by punishing children.

University and College Union sabotages UK national higher education strike - What was a national higher education strike was driven into the ground last week by the University and College Union (UCU) bureaucracy. Fifty thousand university workers had been due to walk out in a national stoppage at over 140 institutions in a fight against the Universities and Colleges Employers’ Association (UCEA) over pay, workloads, precarious contracts and equality. Instead, the UCU leadership, just 10 days before the action started, told local branches they could decide individually whether to withdraw from the walkout. This resulted in workers at less than one third of universities (42) being involved in industrial action. UCU picket line at the University of Sheffield's Wave Building, September 27, 2023 This sabotage took place alongside the UCU calling off a marking and assessment boycott (MAB), with many members who participated losing more than £1,000. This week UCU headquarters sent a withdrawal of action notice to the University of Newcastle and London South Bank University, meaning that workers were not permitted to strike. At Newcastle, the local branch was forced to apologise after union leader Jo Grady stated that a “review” into the error would be conducted during the five planned days. Management at many universities have utilised the marking boycott to enforce their diktats. In many cases, deals were reached with UCU branches locally to end the boycott--even before the union formally did—punishing those taking part by not handing back much of the pay deducted. The strike by workers at the University of Manchester, the largest single campus in the UK—which had begun on September 19—was ended just one day into the curtailed national action last Tuesday. The local UCU branch announced it had reached “agreement locally with management which will see up to 75% of any pay docked over the marking boycott returned.” UCU regional official Matt Arrowsmith declared, “We now call on other universities to follow Manchester's lead [!]. We are always willing to negotiate and strike action is always a last resort.” The leadership of the UCU have systematically whittled down industrial action for months. Last week’s strike was the first since March 22. On April 20, the UCU began the marking boycott nationally, claiming that this was evidence it was still involved in a struggle. At the end of May, the UCU Congress passed a motion censuring Grady for undemocratically pausing strikes and ordering her to “abide by democratic decision making and processes in UCU.” The congress also passed a motion calling for a “ballot commencing as soon as possible.” The ballot didn’t start until September.

UN Security Council approves sending multinational forces to Haiti - The United Nations on Monday approved a plan to send a coalition of multinational forces to Haiti in a support mission designed to address soaring gang violence and crime in the country. The U.N. Security Council unanimously approved a resolution authorizing a one-year deployment of troops, which would be sent from Kenya to Haiti. The deployment could come within just a few months. Thirteen countries approved the resolution. Russia and China abstained from the vote but chose not to veto it, which would have killed authority for the mission. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield hailed the passage of the “historic resolution,” which she said showed the council’s “ability to galvanize collective action.” “But today’s vote is only the first step — now, the work of getting the mission off the ground begins,” she said in a statement. . “We must act with urgency as the people of Haiti cannot and should not wait for the peace and stability they deserve.” The last time the U.N. approved a mission to Haiti was about 20 years ago, underscoring the dire crisis the Caribbean nation is facing under waves of violence and crime, which have worsened since the death of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse in 2021. Along with Kenya, countries expected to contribute to the mission are Jamaica, the Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda. Haiti has requested the support of other nations as police have struggled to rein in a growing number of gangs that have dominated the country and its capital, Port-au-Prince.