week ending Oct 28

The Federal Reserve may not hike interest rates next week, but consumers are unlikely to feel any relief - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce it will leave rates unchanged at the end of its two-day meeting next week, even though the central bank's preferred inflation indicator remains well above the 2% target rate. Late last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said "inflation is still too high," raising expectations that another rate hike may not be completely off the table this year.The Fed has already raised interest rates 11 times since last year — the fastest pace of tightening since the early 1980s — however, the consensus among economists and central bankers is that interest rates will stay higher for longerFor consumers, that means there will be no relief from sky-high borrowing costs.The federal funds rate, which is set by the U.S. central bank, is the interest rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. Although that's not the rate consumers pay, the Fed's moves still affect the borrowing and savings rates they see every day.Here's a breakdown of how the central bank's rate hike cycle has affected household expenses and savings:

Core inflation prices jump most in four months as spending picks up — The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of underlying inflation accelerated to a four-month high in September and consumer spending picked up, keeping the door open to another interest-rate hike in the months ahead.The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, rose 0.3% in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis report out Friday. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending jumped 0.4% last month.Resilient household demand paired with a pickup in inflation underscores momentum heading into the fourth quarter. While economists generally expect consumer spending to slow in the coming months, Fed officials have warned that strong data could lead them to keep tightening.The data "suggest that the Fed needs to remain on guard for somewhat higher core inflation prints before year-end," Omair Sharif, the president of Inflation Insights LLC, said in a note to clients. "Indeed, it seems like there are some upside risks heading into Q4." That said, policymakers are widely expected to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at their meeting next week. A rapid surge in borrowing costs — 10-year Treasury yields surpassed 5% for the first time in 16 years earlier this week — has contributed to the Fed's cautiousness.

Crucial inflation report showed few signs of improvement last month - The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge cooled slightly last month, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department.Excluding gas and food prices, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 3.7% for the 12 months ended in September, down from the 3.8% rate seen in August. That represents the smallest year-over-year increase since the 3.2% annual rate seen in May 2021. On a monthly basis it rose 0.3% from the 0.1% rate seen in August.On a monthly basis, the overall index was unchanged, at the same 0.4% rate seen in August. For the 12 months that ended in September, the index was also unchanged, at 3.4%.Economists estimated that the headline PCE index would rise 0.3% monthly and 3.4% annually, according to Refinitiv.Within the goods category, price increases for prescription drugs and cars were the biggest contributors to the overall increase last month, according to the Commerce Department. Within services, the largest contributors were international travel and housing.The new inflation data comes on the heels of Thursday’s third-quarter gross domestic product report that estimated the US economyexpanded at an annual rate of nearly 5%. That’s more than double the growth rate the economy experienced last quarter.It’s one of the last new major pieces of data the Fed will have to evaluate at its upcoming monetary policy meeting, which begins on Tuesday.“It does appear that inflation is coming down while growth remains robust — contrary to what many had predicted,” Lael Brainard, director of the National Economic Council, said Friday morning at an event hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The Commerce Department’s latest Personal Income and Outlays report also showed that consumers spent more money in September, rising 0.7% from the 0.4% increase in August. Higher spending levels were also evident in the GDP report, which found consumer spending increased by an annualized rate of 4%, the strongest pace since the fourth quarter of 2021. At the same time, however, incomes grew at a slower pace last month, at 0.3% from 0.4% in August. That meant more consumers had to dip into their savings — as evidenced by the personal saving rate, which is savings as a percentage of disposable income. That rate declined sharply last month to 3.4% from an upwardly revised 4% in August. This marked the lowest level since December 2022 and the fourth consecutive month of declines in the personal saving rate. Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, said this data is a reflection of “reduced government spending on social services, rising interest expense, and higher tax rates.”

Spectacle Ensues after 10-Year Treasury Yield Pierces 5%: Huge Demand Piles in, Yield Plunges 19 Basis Points in Hours by Wolf Richter --The spectacle that everyone has been sort of waiting for happened after the 10-year Treasury yield went over 5% briefly this morning for the first time since 2007: Huge global demand emerged at this yield. As if someone had flicked a switch, human investors and algos that had apparently waited on the sidelines for just that moment jumped in, buying hand over fist at this signal, pushing up prices of those maturities, and thereby pushing down the 10-year yield by 19 basis points in a matter of hours, from 5.02% in early trading, to 4.83% currently, back where it had been on October 18 (hourly price chart by Investing.com): Obviously, there was no such sudden change in sentiment about the US debt; and Congress hadn’t just voted this morning to drastically reduce the budget deficit in a bipartisan manner by cutting spending and increasing taxes in some equitable manner, LOL. It was a market reaction to one of the most anticipated key numbers: the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 5%.Every time yields rise to meet demand, demand emerges, but a key figure like 5% for the 10-year yield triggers a special reaction – a veritable spectacle to amuse us?This is what “resistance” is all about – lots of buying pressure emerges suddenly on a highly anticipated signal. And when that pent-up demand is sated, the 10-year yield starts rising again to where demand will be, and it will make another run for the 5%, and it may fail too as more demand emerges at this yield. But that demand may someday be sated too, and then yields would have to go higher to pull in more investors to absorb the tsunami of issuance of longer-term Treasury securities to fund the tsunami of deficits washing over the country in an inflationary environment.The unloved 20-year Treasury yield went over 5%-line first on October 3, and today trades at 5.17%. And then the 30-year Treasury yield pierced the 5%-line on October 18, and amid the spectacle around the 10-year yield today, it fell 13 basis points, to below the 5%-line again, to 4.96% at the moment.Getting the 10-year yield to trade over 5% for more than just a few moments will take some doing because there is a huge amount of global demand at this juicy yield, and it will have to be sated before the 10-year yield can go to the next level.At the same time, a huge amount of demand will be required to absorb the tsunami of new issuance of longer-dated Treasury securities, and for now, there are no signs at all that Congress will do anything that might slow this tsunami of deficits, and therefore slow the tsunami of new issuance of longer-term debt to fund these deficits.

U.S. economy GDP comes in at 4.9% for third quarter of 2023: Commerce Department --The nation’s economy expanded at a robust 4.9% annual rate from July through September as Americans defied higher prices, rising interest rates and widespread forecasts of a recession to spend at a brisk pace.The Commerce Department said the economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in nearly two years — and more than twice the 2.1% annual rate of the previous quarter.Thursday’s report on the nation’s gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — showed that consumers drove the acceleration, ramping up their spending on everything from cars to restaurant meals. Even though the painful inflation of the past two years has soured many people’s view of the economy, millions have remained willing to splurge on vacations, concert tickets and sports events.Last quarter’s robust growth, though, may prove to be a high-water mark for the economy before a steady slowdown begins in the current October-December quarter and extends into 2024. The breakneck pace is expected to ease as higher long-term borrowing rates, on top of the Federal Reserve’s short-term rate hikes, cool spending by businesses and consumers.The growth figures for the third quarter revealed that federal, state, and local governments ramped up their spending, and businesses built up their stockpiles of goods in warehouses and on shelves, which helped drive growth higher. The increase in inventories, which accounted for about a quarter of the July-September growth, isn’t likely to be repeated in the coming months, economists say.The economy managed to accelerate last quarter despite the Fed’s strenuous efforts to slow growth and inflation by raising its benchmark short-term interest rate to about 5.4%, its highest level in 22 years.Several Fed officials acknowledged in speeches last week that the most recent economic data showed growth picking up by more than they had expected. Still, most of the policymakers signaled that they will likely keep their key rate, which affects many consumer and business loans, unchanged when they meet next week.A range of factors are helping fuel consumer spending, which accounts for the bulk of the economy’s growth. Though many Americans are still feeling under pressure from two years of high inflation, average pay is starting to outpace price increases and enhance people’s ability to spend.During the July-September quarter, Thursday’s report showed, consumers spent lavishly on both goods and services. There were some one-time factors that boosted spending, such as blockbuster concert tours by Taylor Swift and Beyonce. Fans spent an average of $1,400 on air fares, hotel rooms, and concert tickets to see Swift’s shows, and an average of $1,800 for Beyonce, according to calculations by Sarah Wolfe, U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley.Wages and salaries in the April-June quarter, the latest period for which data is available, rose 1.7% from a year earlier, after adjusting for inflation, according to the Labor Department. That was the fastest quarterly increase in three years. Americans, as a whole, also began the year on healthy financial footing, according to a report last week from the Fed. The net worth of a typical household jumped 37% from 2019 through 2022. Home prices shot higher, and the stock market rose in the biggest surge on records dating back more than 30 years. At the same time, families benefited from the unusually low interest rates that lasted from the pandemic recession of 2020 until late last year. The typical household — the one midway between the richest and poorest — paid 13.4% of its income to cover interest on debts, the lowest such proportion on record, the Fed report said. Still, consumers are likely reining in their spending in the final three months of the year, and the sluggish housing market is dragging on the economy as well. This month, nearly 30 million people began repaying several hundred dollars a month in student loans, which could slow their ability to spend. Those loan repayments had been suspended when the pandemic struck three years ago. The economy faces other challenges as well, including the prospect of a government shutdown next month and a spike in longer-term interest rates since July. The average 30-year mortgage rate is approaching 8%, a 23-year high, putting home buying out of reach for many more Americans. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a discussion last week, said he was generally pleased with how the economy was evolving: Inflation has slowed to an annual rate of 3.7% from a four-decade high of 9.1% in June 2022. At the same time, steady growth and hiring have forestalled a recession, which was widely predicted at the end of last year. If those trends continue, it could allow the Fed to achieve a highly sought-after “soft landing,” in which it would manage to slow inflation to its 2% target without causing a deep recession. Still, Fed officials were surprised by a strong government report last week on retail sales, which showed that spending at stores and restaurants jumped last month by much more than expected. Powell has since acknowledged that if the economy were to keep growing robustly, the Fed might have to raise rates further. Its benchmark short-term rate is now about 5.4%, a 22-year high.

GDP: US economy grows at fastest pace in nearly two years - The US economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years during the past three months, once again defying predictions for a slowdown as many expected the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening to constrain the American consumer. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of third quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 4.9% during the period, faster than consensus forecasts. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimated the US economy grew at an annualized pace of 4.5% during the period.The reading came in higher than second quarter GDP, which was revised down to 2.1%. The GDP release highlights the resilience of the US consumer despite ongoing concerns of a slowdown. But many economists see this as the high-water mark for economic growth before the credit tightening inducedby the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and the recent rise in bond yields grabs hold of business development and consumer spending. "Factoring tighter credit conditions, the restart of student loan payments, uncertainty regarding the lagged impact of monetary policy and a fragile global economic backdrop, real GDP growth is likely to drift below trend for several quarters," EY chief economist Greg Daco wrote in a research note prior to Thursday's release. "We foresee real GDP growing a muted 1.4% in 2024 following expected growth of 2.4% in 2023." The key question for investors will be if the Fed has already tightened enough to bring the economy down from its hot third quarter, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently noted the central bank will need to see slower economic activity to ensure prices continue to cool. "We certainly have a very resilient economy on our hands," Powell said in a discussion at the Economic Club of New York. "Many forecasts called for the US economy to be in recession this year. Not only has that not happened; growth is now running for this year above its longer-run trend. So that's been a surprise."

GDP surged 4.9% in the third quarter, defying the Fed's rate hikes - The U.S. economy accelerated to a robust 4.9% rate last quarter as consumers continued to open their wallets despite the Federal Reserve's regime of interest rate hikes, which has made it costlier to purchase homes, cars and other items.The Commerce Department said the economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in more than two years — and more than twice the 2.1% annual rate of the previous quarter.Thursday's report on the nation's gross domestic product — the economy's total output of goods and services — showed that consumers drove the acceleration, ramping up their spending on everything from cars to restaurant meals. Even though the painful inflation of the past two years has soured many people's view of the economy, millions have remained willing to splurge on vacations, concert tickets and sports events.The Federal Reserve has been boosting interest rates since early 2022 in an effort to tame inflation by curbing demand from consumers and businesses. Several Fed officials acknowledged in speeches last week that the most recent economic data showed growth picking up by more than they had expected. Still, most of the policymakers signaled that they will likely keep their key rate, which affects many consumer and business loans, unchanged when they meet next week."While this one number makes the Fed wary of cutting rates, it does not move the needle for the November FOMC meeting which is certainly a skip. Higher and hold, yes. Higher and hiking, no," noted Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, in a Thursday email.Last quarter's robust growth, though, may prove to be a high-water mark for the economy before a steady slowdown begins in the current October-December quarter and extends into 2024. The breakneck pace is expected to ease as higher long-term borrowing rates, on top of the Federal Reserve's short-term rate hikes, cool spending by businesses and consumers.The growth figures for the third quarter revealed that federal, state, and local governments ramped up their spending, and businesses built up their stockpiles of goods in warehouses and on shelves, which helped drive growth higher. The economy managed to accelerate despite the Fed's strenuous efforts to slow growth and inflation by raising its benchmark short-term interest rate to about 5.4%, its highest level in 22 years.A range of factors are helping fuel consumer spending, which accounts for the bulk of the economy's growth. Though many Americans are still feeling under pressure from two years of high inflation, average pay is starting to outpace price increases and enhance people's ability to spend.Wages and salaries in the April-June quarter, the latest period for which data is available, rose 1.7% after adjusting for inflation, according to the Labor Department. That was the fastest quarterly increase in three years.Americans, as a whole, also began the year on healthy financial footing, according to a report last week from the Fed. The net worth of a typical household jumped 37% from 2019 through 2022. Home prices shot higher, and the stock market rose in the biggest surge on records dating back more than 30 years.At the same time, families benefited from the unusually low interest rates that lasted from the pandemic recession of 2020 until late last year. The typical household — the one midway between the richest and poorest — paid 13.4% of its income to cover interest on debts, the lowest such proportion on record.Still, consumers are likely reining in their spending in the final three months of the year, and the sluggish housing market is dragging on the economy as well. This month, nearly 30 million people began repaying several hundred dollars a month in student loans, which could slow their ability to spend. Those loan repayments had been suspended when the pandemic struck three years ago.The economy faces other challenges as well, including the prospect of a government shutdown next month and a spike in longer-term interest rates since July. The average 30-year mortgage rate is approaching 8%, a 23-year high, putting home buying out of reach for many more Americans.

Our Drunken Sailors – Consumers, Governments, Businesses – Have Blast, GDP Spikes in Q3, Powell Seen Tearing out his Hair by Wolf Richter - In Q3, all our drunken sailors where at it together in one huge party – consumers, businesses, and governments. Maybe they’ll slow down in Q4, maybe they’ll slow down in 2024, or whenever. But in Q3, they drank directly from the punch bowl. GDP, adjusted for inflation (“real GDP”), jumped by an annualized rate of 4.9% in Q3 from Q2, following the 2.1% increase in Q2 and the 2.2% increase in Q1, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. All major categories, except the trade deficit (which worsened), increased sharply, adjusted for inflation: Consumer spending (69% of GDP): +4.0%. Gross private investment (18% of GDP): +8.4%. Government spending (17% of GDP): +4.6%. Private inventories increased and added to GDP. But the trade deficit got a little more horrible and an bigger drag on GDP. Obviously, as we can see from the chart, big increases are generally followed by smaller increases, or sometimes quarter-to-quarter dips. And that history of quarter-to-quarter changes alone, without knowing anything about Q4 yet, would lead us to expect a smaller increase in Q4. That doesn’t mean the economy suddenly hit an air pocket, but that growth reverts to trend. GDP in dollar terms: In current dollars, not adjusted for inflation, “nominal GDP” jumped by 8.5%, to $27.6 trillion annualized. This represents the actual size of the US economy, measured in today’s dollars. GDP adjusted for inflation via 2017 dollars rose 4.0% to an annual rate of $22.5 trillion, depicted in the chart below. You can see the sharp acceleration of growth in Q3. All figures below are adjusted for inflation via 2017 dollars. Drunken sailors #1: Consumer spending on goods and services jumped by 4.0% annualized and adjusted for inflation, after the revised 0.8% increase in Q2 and the 3.8% increase in Q1. Consumer spending accounted for 69% of Q3 GDP.

• Spending on goods jumped by 4.8%, including a 7.6% spike in durable goods (think autos).
• Spending on services jumped by 3.6%.

Drunken sailors #2: Gross private domestic investment spiked by 8.4%, after the 5.2% jump in Q2. It accounted for 18% of GDP.The fixed investment component within gross private domestic investment ticked up 0.8%, of which:

• Residential fixed investment: +3.9%, after six quarters of declines.
• Nonresidential fixed investments: -0.1%, after seven quarters of increases:
  • Structures: +1.6%.
  • Equipment: -3.8%.
  • Intellectual property products (software, movies, etc.): +2.6%.

Drunken sailors #3, oh my: Government consumption and investment jumped by 4.6% to a new record. In total, it accounted for 17% of Q3 GDP. Q3 was the fifth quarter in a row of steep increases, driven by the most recklessly drunken sailor of them all, the federal government, which is now blowing borrowed money helter-skelter in every direction.

• Federal government: +6.2% (national defense +8.0%, nondefense +3.9%).
• State and local governments: +3.7%.

Government consumption and investment does not include transfer payments and other direct payments to consumers (stimulus payments, unemployment payments, Social Security payments, etc.), which are counted in GDP when consumers and businesses spend or invest these funds.

Recession Is Coming but Key Difference From Past Slumps Could Make It Milder --The last time the economy tanked, a deadly virus had forced the world to a grinding halt. The time before that, shoddy home loans caused the housing sector to collapse. The time before that, hype around the internet overinflated tech stocks. Another recession is coming, but this time around the culprit is also the savior, making it a lot less harmful, according to Apollo Management's chief economist, Torsten Sløk. "The slowdown we are talking about here is engineered by the Fed. This is manufactured by the Fed," he said in a CNBC interview on Wednesday. "The Fed is trying to slow the economy down, to slow inflation down." Since March 2022, the Fed has hiked the fed funds rate 11 times, lifting it from near zero to 5.25%-5.5%. The hiked rates have jacked up borrowing costs for banks, businesses, and homeowners. It's jostled Treasury yields to multiyear highs and mortgage rates to multidecade highs. In addition, the central bank has been shrinking its balance sheet as part of its quantitative tightening campaign, pulling more liquidity from the economy. But that also means that if the economy sputters and begins contracting, the Fed has the ability to reverse the downtrend because they will undo the measures that slowed growth. "Here today, this is all engineered by the Fed, the slowdown," Sløk said. "So, if things start to slow as they want, they will begin to turn around and therefore the slowdown is probably going to be milder than what we've seen in prior recessions." So far, the economy has been largely resilient, but there are signs of cracking. For example, credit card and auto loan delinquency rates are on the rise. Meanwhile, bankruptcies are also climbing, which Sløk recently attributed to the Fed rate hikes.

Senate strikes down GOP anti-shutdown amendment creating permanent stopgap - The Senate on Wednesday voted down an amendment to its latest government funding package that is intended to prevent future government shutdowns by creating a permanent stopgap spending measure if Congress does not complete its appropriations work. Senators voted 56-42 on the amendment, which was proposed by Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.). Sixty votes were needed for it to be attached to the three-bill government spending package, also known as a “minibus,” that is currently under consideration. Every Senate Republican but one — Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.) — voted for the amendment, as did Sens. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Angus King (I-Maine), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Mark Warner (D-Va.). All other Senate Democrats lined up against it. Sens. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) and Tim Scott (R-S.C.) did not vote. Lankford’s amendment would have required lawmakers to strike future government funding agreements without threat of a shutdown and for them to work on nothing else before the chamber until a deal is struck. In the meantime, the government would continue to run at the previous funding levels, essentially creating a continuing resolution for the time being. Lankford also responded to calls that the bill is unrealistic due to efforts across the Capitol by House Republicans to shut down the government. “If Congress gets to the end of the fiscal year and the appropriations work is not done by the end of the year, we stay in session seven days a week, we can’t move to any other bill other than appropriations until we actually finish appropriations,” Lankford said in the floor ahead of the vote. “If I can make it just this simple: If we don’t finish our classwork, we have to stay after class.”

White House Seeks $105 Billion To Arm Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan - On Friday, the White House rolled out its proposed $105 billion bill to arm Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The legislation also includes funding for the border and humanitarian assistance. US officials say over $50 billion will go to American weapons manufacturers.The Biden administration is proposing a massive aid package as it has struggled to get Congress to appropriate more funds for the proxy war in Ukraine. The largest portion of money is for Ukraine at $61.4 billion. The White House wants enough money for Ukraine to fund Kiev through the 2024 election.National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan described the aid as critical to American national security and demanded Congress pass the bill. “This budget request is critical to advancing America’s national security and ensuring the safety of the American people,” Sullivan said. “The world is closely watching what Congress does next.” Israel will receive $14.3 billion in assistance, with $10.6 billion for air and missile defense support.The aid would be in addition to the $3.8 billion Tel Aviv from Washington in security assistance annually.Biden announced the legislation in a speech on Thursday night, “American leadership is what holds the world together. American alliances are what keep us in America safe. American values are what make us a partner nation you want to work with.” He continued,”to put all that at risk – we walk away from Ukraine, we turn our backs on Israel – it’s just not worth it. That’s why tomorrow I’m going to send to Congress an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs – needs to support our critical partners, including Israel and Ukraine.”The bill includes $7.4 billion for several initiatives to increase Washington’s military posture in the Indo-Pacific. That includes $2 billion in grants for foreign governments to buy American weapons. Taiwan will receive a portion of that money, although US officials did not provide a detailed breakdown.Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Shalanda Young, explained that nearly half of the money will go to American arms makers. “This supplemental request invests over $50 billion in the American defense industrial base, ensuring our military continues to be the most ready, capable, and best-equipped fighting force the world has ever seen,” she said.Young claimed that the spending would bolster the American economy and create jobs. However, a study indicated that military spending costs more jobs than it creates. Additionally, $14 billion will go towards border security. The White House claimed it was needed to “keep the southwest border secure and stop the flow of fentanyl.” A portion of those funds will go towards hiring thousands of law enforcement officers.A small number of Republican represenatives have hindered Congress from passing additional funds for Ukraine. The Biden administration hopes to push several GOP members of Congress to vote for the bill by combining funding for Taiwan, Israel, and the border with Ukraine.

Blinken Rejects Idea of Gaza Ceasefire Despite Massive Child Casualties -“UNICEF says 1,524 children have been killed in the Gaza Strip during these bombings. Why isn’t the US calling for at least a temporary ceasefire?” Margaret Brennan, the host of CBS News’s “Face the Nation,” asked Blinken.Blinken claimed that the death of children on both sides hits him “right in the heart” but did not criticize Israel’s vicious bombing campaign. He pointed to US efforts to get Israel to allow aid trucks to enter Gaza through Egypt, and Brennan then asked why the US isn’t pushing for at least a temporary ceasefire.“Israel has to do everything it can to make sure this doesn’t happen again,” Blinken said, referring to the October 7 Hamas attack. “Freezing things in place where they are now would allow Hamas to remain where it is and to repeat what it’s done some time in the future. No country could accept that,” Blinken said.Blinken made a similar argument earlier this year when rejecting the idea of a ceasefire in Ukraine ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, saying a pause in fighting would only benefit Russia. Now, it’s clear Ukraine’s counteroffensive has failed after months of brutal fighting and heavy Ukrainian casualties.During the interview with Brennan, Blinken also claimed it was Hamas’s fault that American citizens in Gaza could not leave despite the fact that the enclave is under Israeli blockade and Egypt has not been letting people enter its territory from its one border crossing with Gaza.

White House Says Israel Will Decide on Gaza Strategy - White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Monday that Israel will decide on its Gaza strategy in response to media reports that said the US was urging a delay to the ground invasion of Gaza.The New York Times reported that the US advised delaying the ground offensive to buy time for hostage negotiations and allow more humanitarian aid to enter the besieged Gaza Strip. The report said the US also wanted more time to deploy additional military assets to the region as attacks on US forces are expected to increase once Israel invades Gaza.Israel’s Army Radio reported Monday that Israel had decided to delay the invasion to allow more US forces to deploy to the region, but the report hasn’t been confirmed. According to The Times of Israel, Kirby said Israel’s political and military leaders will make the decisions on Israel’s Gaza operations and that the US is only asking questions. A source told The Timesof Israel that the US does not intend to pressure Israel on its military strategy publicly.The Times of Israel also reported that the Israeli military is eager to launch its ground invasion of Gaza and is hoping the Israeli cabinet will soon give the order. The report said that the military “has told the government that it is fully prepared for a ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, and believes it can achieve the goals set out for it, even at the risk of heavy casualties to soldiers, and amid ongoing attacks by Hezbollah in the north.” The Israeli military is concerned that if Hamas releases more hostages, it would lead to a delay in the ground invasion. They believe an invasion would pressure Hamas to release captives, although they could be killed in the fighting.

White House Says Israel Will Continue to Kill 'Innocent Civilians' in Gaza - White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Tuesday that Israel will continue to hurt “innocent civilians” in its onslaught on Gaza.“This is war. It is combat. It is bloody, ugly and it’s going to be messy and innocent civilians are going to be hurt going forward,” Kirby said when asked if the US thought Israel’s bombardment was a disproportionate response to the Hamas attack on southern Israel.“I wish I could tell you something different and wish that there wasn’t going to happen, but it is going to happen. And that doesn’t make it right, doesn’t make it dismissible,” Kirby added.He also reiterated the US’s opposition to a ceasefire in Gaza, claiming it would only benefit Hamas. Both Kirby and Secretary of State Antony Blinken said they were open to the idea of a “humanitarian pause” to allow more aid to enter Gaza.Kirby insisted the US would continue to urge Israel to minimize civilian casualties, but Israel has only increased its bombardment of Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that airstrikes launched the day before were the hardest yet.While Kirby framed civilian casualties as a fact of modern war, Israel’s bombardment has been particularly brutal, as attacks have been leveling entire neighborhoods. According to Gaza’s Health Ministry, after 18 days of bombing, at least 5,791 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, including 2,360 children.

US Sends More Air Defenses to Middle East as Escalation Risk Rises - On Saturday, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced the US was sending more air defense systems to the Middle East as US forces in the region are coming under attack due to President Biden’s backing of Israel’s onslaught on Gaza. Austin blamed the escalations on Iran, although there’s no sign Iran plans to get directly involved in the fighting. “Following detailed discussions with President Biden on recent escalations by Iran and its proxy forces across the Middle East Region, today I directed a series of additional steps to further strengthen the Department of Defense posture in the region,” he said. Austin said he had “activated the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery as well as additional Patriot battalions to locations throughout the region to increase force protection for US forces.” He also placed “an additional number of forces on prepare to deploy orders.” Earlier reports said the Pentagon ordered 2,000 troops to be prepared to deploy to the region to support Israel, although they are not expected to serve in combat roles. Austin’s statement on Saturday came after US bases in Syria and Iraq came under attack, with only minor injuries reported. Reuters reported that the Ain al-Asad air base in western Iraq, which hosts US troops, came under a drone attack on Saturday and a rocket attack on Sunday. Both Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have said the US is ready to respond to further attacks on US forces. “We don’t want to see our forces or our personnel come under fire. But if that happens, we’re ready for it,” Blinken said. The US has also intercepted missiles in the Red Sea that were fired from Yemen and likely targeted at Israel. According to Task and Purpose, the guided-missile destroyer USS Carney spent nine hours downing 15 drones and four cruise missiles fired from Yemen, a far larger engagement than the Pentagon initially reported.

US Sends Military Advisors to Israel, Including 3-Star General - The US has sent military officers to Israel to serve as advisors amid preparations for an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza, demonstrating the deep US involvement in Israel’s war.Leading the officers is Lt. Gen. James Glynn, a three-star Marine Corps general who previously headed the Marines’ special operations and was involved in the US war against ISIS in Iraq.According to Axios, Glynn and the other officers are not directing any operations but will provide advice about its plans in Gaza with the primary focus on the coming invasion. The US officers are sharing lessons they learned fighting ISIS in Mosul, Iraq, where a brutal nine-month battle took thousands of civilian lives.According to an AP investigation from 2017, between 9,000 and 11,000 civilians died in the Battle of Mosul. About a third were killed by US-led coalition airstrikes or Iraqi forces, a third were killed by ISIS, and the cause of death for the rest is undetermined.Since the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel, Israeli airstrikes have been relentlessly pounding the besieged Gaza Strip. According to Gaza’s Health Ministry, at least 5,087 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza so far, including 2,055 children.

Pentagon Expects 'Significant Escalation' of Attacks on US Troops Over Gaza War - A Pentagon official told reporters on Monday that the military is preparing for a “significant escalation” of attacks on US troops stationed in the Middle East due to President Biden’s support for Israel’s onslaught in Gaza.The comments came the same day US Central Command said its forces downed two drones that were fired at a base in Syria. Starting last week, there have been a series of attacks on bases housing US troops in Iraq and Syria.“They’ve been under an increase of attacks for the really for the last three days or so at various locations,” said a senior Pentagon official, who was not authorized to speak on the record, according to Military Times.A group that calls itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed it launched drones at US forces in Syria on Monday, but the US has not attributed blame. The Pentagon official pointed the finger at Iran due to Tehran’s support for Shia militias that operate in Syria and Iraq, although there’s no indication Iran is directly involved.“We see a prospect for much more significant escalation against US forces and personnel in the near term,” the official said. “And let’s be clear about it: the road leads back to Iran. Iran funded, armed, equipped and trained militias and proxy forces all across the region.”Separately, Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said there was no sign Iran is ordering the attacks, but said the US still blames Iran. “We don’t necessarily see that Iran has explicitly ordered them to take these kinds of attacks,” he said. “That said, by virtue of the fact that they are supported by Iran, we will ultimately hold Iran responsible.”

Pentagon: US Forces in Iraq and Syria Attacked 13 Times in Last Week - The Pentagon said Tuesday that US troops stationed in Iraq and Syria have been attacked 13 times within a week as the US is backing Israel’s bombardment of Gaza.Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said between October 17 and 24, troops in Iraq came under attack 10 times while troops in Syria were attacked three times. A mix of drones and rockets have targeted the US bases.US Central Command later told NBC News that 24 US troops sustained injuries in the attacks. In one incident, a civilian contractor at the Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq died of cardiac arrest during a false alarm.A group that calls itself the Islamic Resistance of Iraq has taken credit for some of the attacks, but the US has not attributed blame to a specific group. The US is blaming the attacks on Iranian “proxy forces,” referring to the Shia militias that operate in Iraq and Syria.The White House has accused Iran of “actively facilitating” the attacks on US troops. But Ryder acknowledged on Monday that the US has no evidence Iran was directing the operations. “We don’t necessarily see that Iran has explicitly ordered them to take these kinds of attacks,” Ryder said.The US is expecting the attacks to escalate as Israel is ramping up airstrikes in Gaza and preparing to invade the besieged enclave. A US official told CNNon Monday that there are “red lights flashing everywhere.”The CNN report acknowledged that the Shia militias in the region are not a monolith and can act on their own. One source said that how willing the groups are to act independently is always a “persistent intelligence gap” for the US. Regardless, the US is making clear it will hold Iran responsible for any escalation and is warning it will respond, signaling there’s a risk the US could target Iran directly.

WSJ: Israel Agrees to Delay Gaza Ground Invasion So US Can Prepare Defenses -Israel has agreed to a request from the US to delay its ground invasion of Gaza so the US can send more missile defense systems to the region to prepare for an expected escalation of attacks on US troops, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.The report said the US is rushing to deploy nearly a dozen air defense systems to the region that will aim to protect US troops stationed in Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said on Saturday that he ordered the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery and multiple Patriot air defense systems to the region. The WSJ report said Israel has agreed to hold off its invasion until the additional air defenses are put in place, which could be completed at the end of this week.Later on Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said a ground invasion was coming but didn’t say when. “We are preparing for a ground invasion. I will not elaborate on when, how or how many. I will also not elaborate on the various calculations we are making, which the public is mostly unaware of and that is how things should be,” he said.The Pentagon said on Tuesday that US troops based in Syria and Iraq had come under attack 13 times within a week, causing dozens of minor injuries. The deployment of so many air defenses to the region demonstrates that the US expects the situation for the US troops to get much worse.The US has said Iran is responsible for the attacks on US troops because its “proxy forces” are behind them, referring to Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. But there’s no indication Iran has ordered the attacks, which the Pentagon has acknowledged, and the militias are capable of acting independently.The US has also deployed two aircraft carrier strike groups, two amphibious vessels carrying thousands of Marines, and additional fighter jets to the region. The implication is that the US might directly intervene if Hezbollah or other regional actors enter the war.

US Sends 900 Troops to Middle East as Attacks Continue - The Pentagon said on Thursday that about 900 troops are in the process of deploying to the Middle East as the US is bolstering its defenses in the region amid a spate of attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria over President Biden’s support for Israel’s Gaza war.The deployment includes troops who were recently notified to be prepared to be deployed. Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said the deployment was part of the US effort to send more air defense systems to the region, including a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery and Patriot systems. Ryder did not say where the troops were being deployed, just that they weren’t going to Israel.US troops based in Iraq and Syria have come under rocket and drone attacks over a dozen times since last week, resulting in at least 21 injuries. Ryder said 19 troops had been diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries.The attacks have continued, as Ryder said a base housing US troops in Iraq was targeted again on Thursday. A militia group that calls itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it launched two drones in the northern Erbil province and described the attack as “unsuccessful.”The US has not attributed blame for the attacks to a specific group but is pointing the finger at Iran as it supports Shia militias that operate in Iraq and Syria. However, the groups can act independently, and the Pentagonhas acknowledged it has no evidence Iran has ordered the attacks.

Biden's $106B package is in big trouble in the Senate - -- President Joe Biden’s $106 billion national security request is in big trouble on Capitol Hill. Even before it hits the leaderless House, Senate GOP divisions are threatening to sink the proposal — or dramatically reshape it. Republicans are split over whether to link Israel and Ukraine aid, with many also pushing for big border policy changes and blanching at the price tag. Even some GOP supporters of the efforts’ four priorities — Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the Southern border — are uncharacteristically pessimistic after the party’s first discussion about the legislation at Tuesday’s lunch. “The package that the White House sent over really is dead,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.). "The appropriators in the Senate can begin by basically starting over.” Democrats hold the keys to the Senate, but they’ll need nine or more Republican votes to get anything through the chamber. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell stumped over the weekend for a generous aid package but said his members have "passion" for stronger border security: "And we're going to make other changes as well.” The Senate Appropriations Committee will hold a hearing on the request in a week, and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer wants to move urgently. But the Nov. 17 government funding deadline and a leaderless House create a time crunch for the Senate. There’s also little clarity into what the Senate’s 60-vote threshold can bear. Beyond the specifics of the $106 billion supplemental bill, Republicans are debating the philosophical concept of marrying Israel aid with the ongoing funding for Ukraine’s defense. Sending Ukraine more aid is still divisive in the GOP, and some Republicans want the Senate to consider Israel aid on its own. “They should be separated out,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said Tuesday. “The Israel component has almost overwhelming support, and we can get there very quickly. I just think, tactically, it's just a better approach.” On the other hand, Senate Armed Services ranking member Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said he “absolutely” supports linking the two. He conceded the conference is “split” on the issue but predicted a “solid majority in the House and Senate” could support the concept. “I want the whole package to go forward," Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said. “Those are four national security issues, and we should deal with them as a unit.” Still, the complexity of such a large piece of legislation could be its undoing. Humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip will be “problematic” for the GOP, said Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.). And Republicans want border policy changes in addition to funding requests from the administration. This is “going to have to deal with some policy changes on the border to change the status quo, which this does not,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said. A number of Senate Republican leaders and McConnell allies, including Thune, are non-committal about keeping the package comprehensive. Asked whether the issues can remain lumped together, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) said the conference will discuss "what strategy is best," while Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) said “we'll have a discussion” about it. On the Israel-Ukraine combo, Cornyn said he'd "be happy to vote on them individually,” while Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) said there’s still a need to “take a look at what's been sent over.” Yet McConnell was steadfast in his approach when facing reporters after the party lunch. “Speaking for myself, I do think it needs to be comprehensive,” McConnell said at his weekly press conference. “It needs to deal with all of these, because they're all interrelated.”

Republican Senators Introduce Stand-Alone Israel Aid Bill - A group of Republican senators have introduced a bill that would give Israel $14.3 billion in additional military aid to support its onslaught on Gaza, separating the funds from the $105 billion request from President Biden that includes funding for Ukraine, Taiwan, and border security.The bill was introduced by Sens. Roger Marshall (R-KS), J.D. Vance (R-OH), Mike Lee (R-UT), and Ted Cruz (R-TX). It would provide $10.6 billion for Israel through the Pentagon, $3.5 billion for the State Department’s Foreign Military Financing program, and $200 million to help protect US diplomatic facilities. Israel already receives $3.8 billion in military aid from the US each year.The senators want to separate spending for Israel from Ukraine so additional military aid can be sent to Israel as quickly as possible. President Biden’s request includes about $61 billion for the Ukraine proxy war, an amount that’s expected to be able to fund the conflict for an entire year. “My colleagues and I firmly believe that any aid to Israel should not be used as leverage to send tens of billions of dollars to Ukraine. Any package that does so would result in funds and resources being delayed in Israel’s time of need,” Marshall said. “The legislation we’ve introduced provides the aid to Israel requested by the Biden Administration and should be considered by the Senate immediately.” The US has already shipped additional military equipment to Israel and deployed a huge amount of firepower to the region, including two aircraft carrier strike groups and additional fighter jets. The US has also sent military advisors to Israel and is deeply involved in the planning for Israel’s expected ground invasion. According to Gaza’s Health Ministry, Israel’s relentless bombing campaign since the October 7 Hamas attack has killedover 7,000 Palestinians, including nearly 3,000 children.

Former NATO commander warns of ‘ladder of escalation’ between US, Iran -Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis warned of a “ladder of escalation” between the U.S. and Iran on Friday. “I would still assess the chances of an Iran-U.S. direct conflict as quite low,” Stavridis said in an interview on MSNBC. “Neither side wants it. The Iranians have significant internal turmoil in their own country, their economy is in poor shape, they have very little sets of allies and partners, they’re basically locked out of the region in terms of real alliance and friendships.” “So, Iran really doesn’t want to get in a serious war with the United States,” Stavridis continued. He also noted that heading into an election year, “the last thing” the Biden administration would want is a “significant conflict.” “So … let’s call it a 10 percent chance,” Stavridis said. “That’s still uncomfortably high, and what we need to worry about is that ladder of escalation,” Stavridis said. If Iran were to take military action against the U.S., the U.S. would retaliate, which would then draw Hezbollah into the mix, he predicted. “Iran hits us, we hit them back, they hit us a little harder. All of a sudden Hezbollah gets into this and starts moving missiles toward Israel.” U.S. forces based in the Middle East have faced attack at least 13 times in the past week, a Pentagon spokesperson said Tuesday. In an Oct. 18 attack, 20 American service members received “minor injuries” from attack drones at al-Tanf Garrison in Syria, and four other U.S. personnel were injured in two other drone attacks at al-Asad Airbase in Iraq. The attacks come in the shadow of the Israel-Hamas conflict; fears of the conflict expanding have hovered over how the U.S. is dealing with the fighting between the militant group and Israel. There are fears that Iran could use the conflict to open an additional front or destabilize the region.

Sen. Ted Cruz issues chilling warning on Biden-appointed ‘Iranian spies’ working in the US government Sen. Ted Cruz is pulling the curtain back on three "Iranian spies" who were allegedly working at senior levels within the Biden administration, claiming that one of the Iran "sympathizers" is regularly accessing classified materials while working as a chief of staff in the Department of Defense. CRUZ: Well, and what you just mentioned with Rob Malley remains one of the greatest national security scandals in our nation's history. So, Rob Malley was Joe Biden's chief negotiator for Iran. He's an incredible Iran sympathizer. He is an advocate, a passionate advocate for the disastrous Obama-Iran nuclear deal. But he also has extraordinarily bad judgment. He's been fired. He's had his security clearances stripped, which I want you to pause and think, just how bad does his conduct have to be to have his security clearances pulled by this ideological and radical White House? But we now know also that, among other things, three of Rob Malley's top advisers, his inner circle that he relied on, were Iranian operatives. They were recruited by the government of Iran. They were directed by the Iranian foreign minister. They reported to the IranianWe have their emails now in which they discuss, one of them discusses with the foreign minister that his loyalties are with the government of Iran, and he is there to do whatever they direct, including making the message from within the federal government that there's nothing wrong with Iran having a nuclear stockpile. You literally had three Iranian spies working in senior positions directly around the U.S. government. One of them, as far as we know, remains a chief of staff in the Department of Defense to this day with access to classified documents. And yet, the corporate media cannot be brought to mention that three Iranian spies were brought into senior levels of government with access to classified materials while working directly for Iran. The same Iran that just murdered 31 Americans and 1400 Israelis. The same Iran directed by an ayatollah who regularly leads mobs chanting 'Death to America' and 'Death to Israel.'

Tuberville claims wars in Ukraine, Gaza were ‘created’ by Democrats -- Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), who has held up more than 360 military promotions and created a stalemate that has consumed the Senate for months, claimed the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East were “created” by Democrats.“They need to be worried about what’s going on in Ukraine, the Middle East, the wars that their side, the Democrats and Joe Biden, have created but you know, they want to circumvent the rules in the Senate,” Tuberville told Newsmax’s Bianca de la Garza on Friday.Democrats are looking to use a standing order resolution to move more than 300 military nominees who have been stalled over Tuberville’s protest over the Department of Defense’s (DOD) abortion policies.The resolution would allow the Senate to move the promotions through the end of 2024. It would first go through the Senate Rules Committee.Tuberville is opposed to the DOD policy that pays for the travel expenses of service members who take leave to obtain abortions. Several members of the Republican conference support his protest.Tuberville expressed concern that the resolution would take away the limited power granted to him in the minority in the Upper House.“The only power you have in the minority is to be able to have holds on something to get the attention of the other side, whether its Republican or Democrat,” he said.

Ukrainian forces on defensive as “counteroffensive” ends in failure, mass casualties -- As the Biden administration is backing the Israeli genocide of the Palestinians in Gaza and preparing for a much wider war in the Middle East, the Ukrainian government’s much publicized four-month-long “counteroffensive” has effectively ended with minimal gains in territory. Ukrainian forces are now on the defensive against advancing Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine. In recent weeks, fighting has centered on the city of Avdiivka, currently held by Ukraine and located north of the major city of Donetsk. Over 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are currently stationed in Avdiivka, a strategically important city due to its proximity to Donetsk. Over 31,000 civilians resided in the city prior to the war, while just 2,000 now remain. Control by Kiev grants Ukrainian forces the ability to hit the heavily populated Donetsk with artillery and potentially attempt to “retake” the city, which had been under Russian-backed separatist control following the NATO-backed coup of elected President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces previously warned of at least 15 or more daily Russian attacks on Avdiivka in their attempts to encircle the city but reported a weakening of attacks on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. However, Avdiivka’s military administration chief Vitaly Barbash acknowledged the precarious situation on the front, stating, “Shelling and small arms fire continue around the clock, so the situation remains very hot.” According to Barbash, “I can say for sure that this is the largest offensive that has ever been launched against Avdiivka since the war began in 2014.” Whatever the outcome of the battle for Avdiivka, it is clear that the Ukrainian military is now quickly moving its forces into defensive positions to prevent further Russian gains before winter. With billions spent and reported casualties of over 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers, even the New York Times was recently forced to acknowledge that the “counteroffensive” was a debacle, stating that while “Ukraine made small gains in the south, Russia took slightly more land overall, mostly in the northeast.” Amid severe manpower shortages, the potential loss of Avdiivka would further consolidate Russian control of the Donbas region and end even the most delusional hopes of the right-wing government of President Volodymyr Zelensky of ever retaking the territory it has lost since the start of the disastrous imperialist-backed war in February 2022. With the end of the counteroffensive now obvious, officials within the Zelensky government are attempting to cast blame for their own massive failures. In an interview last week with news outlet Ukrainska Pravda, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, admitted the counteroffensive was “out of schedule.” When pressed for details, Budanov stated, “There are objective and subjective reasons—everything is complex. But, sorry, most of the explanations for this are state secrets, and it’s just not for public discussion. Over time, all of this will become clear.” Presidential Adviser Mykhailo Podolyak responded to Budanov’s comments in an interview with Channel 24 by admitting the counteroffensive was over and blamed Western failures to provide even faster military aid. “If Ukraine had received weapons faster, we could have defended ourselves better and launched a counterattack. Only after all these events did the weapons finally arrive,” Podolyak said. “We are 6-9 months behind. Everything is very stretched in time. Budanov is right here. If we had received everything we needed in a month, it would be one story. But getting it in 8 months is a different story,” he stated.

US Announces $150 Million Weapons Package for Ukraine - The Biden administration on Thursday announced a new weapons package for Ukraine worth $150 million that includes ammunition for HIMARS rockets, air defenses, artillery rounds, and other equipment.The weapons are being provided under the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the US to send weapons straight from Pentagon stockpiles. The $150 million is being pulled from funds made available by a Pentagon “accounting error” that overvalued previous weapons sent to Ukraine.Earlier this month, the Pentagon said it still had $5.4 billion in drawdown funds available from the money freed up by the error. Based on the weapons packages that have been announced since then, the Pentagon has about $5 billion left to ship weapons to Ukraine until Congress authorizes more.According to the Pentagon, the equipment in the $150 million package includes:

• Additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
• AIM-9M missiles for air defense
• Stinger anti-aircraft missiles
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
• 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles
• Javelin anti-armor systems
• More than 2 million rounds of small arms ammunition
• Night vision devices
• Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing
• Cold weather gear
• Spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment

The Pentagon also released a fact sheet on Thursday that said the US has committed $43.9 billion in military equipment for Ukraine since Russia invaded in February of last year. Congress has authorized a total of $113 billion in spending on the war, which also includes economic aid, money for the Pentagon to replenish weapons, funding for troop deployments in Eastern Europe, and other types of spending. President Biden has requested another $61.4 billion to spend on the proxy war as part of a $105 billion spending package that includes military aid for Israel, Taiwan, and funds for border security.

US among 14 countries to vote against UN resolution on Israel-Hamas ‘truce’ - The United States was among a group of 14 countries in the United Nations General Assembly to vote against the resolution calling for a “humanitarian truce” in Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas war. The U.S. and thirteen other countries voted against the truce, while 45 countries voted to abstain Friday. One hundred and twenty countries voted in favor of the humanitarian truce. The resolution calls for an “immediate, durable and sustained humanitarian truce” between Israeli forces and Hamas militants in Gaza. According to the U.N. it also demands a “continuous, sufficient and unhindered” provision of life-saving supplies to the people stuck inside Gaza. The resolution also condemns all violence against Palestinian and Israeli civilians. Notably, the resolution does not specifically condemn the Oct. 7 surprise attack by Hamas, or mention Hamas at all. There were several amendments that asked for Israel and Hamas to be named in the resolution that failed to get enough support. It calls for the “immediate and unconditional release” of all civilians being held captive. Hamas took more than 200 people hostage during its Oct. 7 attack. The resolution is the first formal U.N. response to the Hamas attacks on Israel and Israel’s counteroffensive . Several other measures by the U.N. Security Council have failed to pass or have been vetoed by either the U.S., Russia or China. The U.S. was joined by Austria, Croatia, Czechia, Fiji, Guatemala, Hungary, Israel, the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay and Tonga in voting against the measure.

President Biden Accuses Palestinians of Lying About Civilian Casualties - President Biden on Wednesday accused Palestinians in Gaza of lying about the civilian casualty rate when confronted about the massive number of child casualties in Israel’s bombardment.According to the latest numbers from Gaza’s Health Ministry, over 6,500 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s onslaught, including more than 2,700 children. A reporter asked Biden if the figures demonstrate that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is ignoring US calls to minimize civilian casualties.“What they say to me is I have no notion that the Palestinians are telling the truth about how many people are killed. I’m sure innocents have been killed, and it’s the price of waging a war,” Biden said. The president added that Israel should be “incredibly careful” to go after Hamas and said he has “no confidence in the number that the Palestinians are using.”The US and Israel have begun to cast doubt on the casualty rates coming from Gaza’s Health Ministry because the enclave is ruled by Hamas. But,according to a report from The Washington Post, many experts consider the numbers to be reliable.“Everyone uses the figures from the Gaza Health Ministry because those are generally proven to be reliable,” said Omar Shakir, Israel and Palestine director at Human Rights Watch. “In the times in which we have done our own verification of numbers for particular strikes, I’m not aware of any time which there’s been some major discrepancy.” Shakir made similar comments to Al Jazeera and said the current numbers are believable based on the massive number of airstrikes Israel is unleashing on Gaza, one of the most densely populated places on earth. “We’ve been looking at satellite imagery. We’ve been looking at what’s taking place. The numbers coming out of the ministry are not beyond reason,” he said. “They’re within the range of what one would expect from air strikes of this intensity.”While US officials are casting doubt on the numbers coming out of Gaza, they have also shrugged off the civilian casualties, framing them as a cost of modern war. “This is war. It is combat. It is bloody, ugly and it’s going to be messy and innocent civilians are going to be hurt going forward,”National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Tuesday.

Palestinian Health Ministry Releases Names of Palestinians Killed After Biden Questions Death Toll - The Gaza-based Palestinian Health Ministry released the names of thousands of Palestinians killed during Israel’s onslaught since October 7 after President Biden questioned the death toll.According to the Health Ministry, at least 7,028 Palestinians have been killed, including 2,913 children. The report it released listed the names, ages, genders, and ID numbers of 6,747 people. It says an additional 281 bodies have not yet been identified.When confronted on Wednesday with the massive child casualties in Gaza,President Biden said he had “no notion that the Palestinians are telling the truth” while also recognizing that “innocents have been killed.” which he said was the price of war. Ashraf al-Qudra, spokesman for the Health Ministry, said the US was “devoid of human standards, morals and basic human rights values” for “shamelessly” questioning the death toll. “We decided to go out and announce, with details and names, and in front of the entire world, the truth about the genocidal war committed by the Israeli occupation against our people,” he said. Biden and other US officials have cast doubt on the casualty numbers since the enclave is ruled by Hamas, meaning they have oversight of the Health Ministry. But Gaza’s Health Ministry is known to be reliable, and its numbers have stood up to UN and even Israeli scrutiny in previous wars.For example, Gaza’s Health Ministry said 2,310 Palestinians were killed in the 2014 Gaza War. The UN count for the conflict was slightly lower, at 2,251, and the Israeli estimate was 2,125. While President Biden is questioning the death toll, a report from HuffPostfound his State Department is citing the figures from Gaza’s Health Ministry internally in cables known as “situation reports.” In one report, written on October 21, the State Department official drafting the cable noted the casualty rate could actually be higher than what Gaza’s Health Ministry is reporting. “The numbers are likely much higher, according to the UN and NGOs reporting on the situation,” the report said.

Biden is showing complete disregard for Arab and Muslim lives -We’ve been horrified by the images emerging from Gaza of children buried and killed under rubble, houses of worship bombed (including Saint Porphyrius Church), and family members crying out for their lost loved ones. It damages our faith in our country’s leadership that President Joe Biden has not only given a green light to these tragedies but is seeking to escalate the war with an additional $14 billion in weapons for Israel — while making no efforts or calls for de-escalation or ceasefire.It’s time for President Biden to heed the demands of the public and call for a ceasefire and de-escalation of this violence and pursue a long-term plan to address the root causes of the conflict.We grieve for the 1,400 Israelis killed by Hamas. We condemn the killing of civilians and believe the targeting of civilians is never justified. The Hamas attacks have understandably traumatized and hurt many people around the world. We also grieve for the over 6,700 Palestinians dead, including 2,600 children, who have been killed by the Israeli military over the last three weeks. The trauma and hurt from those deaths have also affected people around the world.Yet the Biden administration’s response to this tragic violence indicates that the president does not equally value Muslim lives, or those of Arabs who find themselves lumped in with Muslims. What did the 2,600 dead Palestinian children do to have their futures violently snatched from them? Does our government simply label them as terrorists and disposable? Why doesn’t President Biden care enough for them to stop the horror when the power is fully in his hands? It is difficult to put into words the sorrow and pain we and our communities feel seeing the scale of suffering compared to the Biden administration’s indifference.We can only draw one heartbreaking conclusion: The Biden administration doesn’t see Muslims for our full humanity.This is not new to us. In the years after 9/11, the Bush administration dragged the United States into two large-scale wars in predominantly Muslim countries on shaky pretenses, without regard for the horrific loss of civilian life and destruction that would ensue. Half a million civilians have been killed in those wars, with many millions more injured and whose lives are changed forever. That suffering hardly seems to register in the U.S. but will be felt for generations.

Biden Revives Axis of Evil Propaganda Ploy - Joe Biden’s approach to international issues increasingly resembles George W. Bush’s disastrous foreign policy. One key tendency in common is that both men view complex world affairs in dangerously simplistic terms as an existential struggle between good and evil. In Bush’s case, the bitter fruit of that perspective became apparent with the seemingly endless armed crusades to impose western values in such alien settings as Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria. In Biden’s case, that attitude was apparent with his administration’s ongoing attempt to portray the Russia-Ukraine war as a stark struggle between democracy and authoritarianism, between the rule of law and the law of the jungle. That approach should have lacked credibility from the outset, since Ukraine is a corrupt autocracy, not a democracy, but administration policymakers keep pushing the thesis.The Biden administration and its propaganda conduits in the news media are using similar arguments in response to the new war between Hamas and Israel. Instead of acknowledging that Israel’s repressive treatment of Palestinians over the decades contributed to the latest upsurge of violence, the administration has placed all of the blame on Hamas, including simplistically branding the organization as a terrorist movement, not an insurgency.Biden is now using another one of Bush’s destructive ploys: trying to portray disparate events and political movements in different parts of the world as part of an organized conspiracy on the part of evil regimes. That perspective and its accompanying propaganda is reminiscent of George W. Bush’s infamous “axis of evil” passages in his 2002 State of the Union Address that sought to link Iraq, Iran, and North Korea as manifestations of a unified global threat. Biden was not subtle about his attempt to create similar linkage, nor did he wait long to go down that road. In the sixth paragraph of his October 19, 2023, address to the nation, he asserted bluntly that “the assault on Israel echoes nearly 20 months of war, tragedy and brutality inflicted on the people of Ukraine, people that were very badly hurt since Putin launched his all-out invasion.” He added: “Hamas and Putin represent different threats, but they share this in common. They both want to completely annihilate a neighboring democracy — completely annihilate it.” He quickly brought Iran and even North Korea into the mix as well. “Iran is supporting Russia in Ukraine, and it’s supporting Hamas and other terrorist groups in the region.” In another portion of his address, Biden emphasized that “Putin has turned to Iran and North Korea to buy attack drones and ammunition to terrorize Ukrainian cities and people.” On a more practical level, the administration is working to combine military aid for Israel with the far less popular continuation of military aid to Ukraine, thereby enhancing prospects of continued funding for the latter. The president’s underlying message with respect to both conflicts was not subtle. “American leadership is what holds the world together. American alliances are what keep us, America, safe. American values are what make us a partner that other nations want to work with. To put all that at risk if we walk away from Ukraine, if we turn our backs on Israel, it’s just not worth it.” Biden even expressed reverence for Madeleine Albright’s infamousexpression of national narcissism. “We are, as my friend Madeleine Albright said, the indispensable nation.”

New House Speaker: Russia, China, and Iran Are New Axis of Evil - Representative Mike Johnson vowed to support the wars in Ukraine and Israel in an interview after becoming House Speaker. The Congressman told Sean Hannity that China, Russia, and Iran make up an “axis of evil” that poses a huge threat to the US.The Speaker presented Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran as a trilateral threat to Washington. “Big priorities in this moment right now. We have Israel being attacked, we have unrest, we have the Ukraine situation we’ve got to deal with, we have China being aggressive, we have Iran with all the meddling, and China, Russia, and Iran working together. This is a dangerous time.” he said.“Hamas and Hezbollah are proxies of Iran, and they’re tied in now with Russia and China. I mean, it is a new axis of evil. That’s how we see it, “Johnson continued, the states posed a “huge [threat to the US.] It’s it’s the biggest threat since World War II.”On Ukraine, Johnson stated that the support for Ukraine must continue. “Now we can’t allow Vladimir Putin to Prevail in Ukraine because I don’t believe it would stop there,” he said. “And it would probably encourage and empower China to perhaps make a move on Taiwan. We have these concerns. We’re not going to abandon them.” Johnson explained that he does support the White House’s proposed $105 billion bill that would fund the War in Ukraine, Israel’s war on Gaza, fund Washington’s military buildup in the Pacific, and provide funds to increase security at the southern border. The Speaker said the consensus among House Republicans is to split the funding into different bills. As well as supporting future aid for Ukraine, the Speaker is willing to send American soldiers to the Middle East in defense of Israel. “Watching it very closely, one thing that House Republicans are resolved on is that we must stand with our most important Ally in the Middle East, and that’s Israel.” He added, “I hope that it doesn’t come to boots on the ground.”

Russia to Withdraw Ratification of Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty - Russia is set to revoke its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), a treaty that prohibits all nuclear weapons tests and explosions, which the US has never ratified. Russia’s upper house of parliament, the Federation Council, approved a bill on Wednesday to revoke the ratification. The lower house, the State Duma, approved the bill last week, and now it heads to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desk for his signature. Russia ratified the CTBT in 2000, and Putin has said that revoking it would “mirror” US policy. The US and Russia are still participants in the 1963 Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which prohibits all nuclear weapons tests except those performed underground. Also on Wednesday, Russia conducted a simulation of a nuclear strike, but it’s unclear at this point if Russia is planning to resume live-fire nuclear tests. Last week, the US conducted an explosion at a nuclear test site in Nevada. According to Bloomberg, the test used chemicals and radioisotopes to “validate new predictive explosion models” that can help the Energy Department detect atomic blasts in other countries.Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said Moscow perceived the test as a political message since it came shortly after Russia announced its intention to revoke the CTBT ratification.“It is definitely a political message. We must remain vigilant. As our president said, if the United States makes a move towards full-scale nuclear tests, we will have to give a reciprocal response in this field, too,” Ryabkov said.

Report Details How the CIA Is Backing Ukraine's Assassinations Inside Russia - A report published by The Washington Post on Monday revealed how the CIA has supported covert Ukrainian attacks inside Russia, including the killing of Darya Dugina, daughter of the prominent Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin.The report said the killing of Dugina was carried out by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and that it was one of many operations inside Russian territory involving special units the CIA helped form in the wake of the 2014 coup in Kyiv that ousted former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.The report reads: “The missions have involved elite teams of Ukrainian operatives drawn from directorates that were formed, trained, and equipped in close partnership with the CIA, according to current and former Ukrainian and US officials. Since 2015, the CIA has spent tens of millions of dollars to transform Ukraine’s Soviet-formed services into potent allies against Moscow, officials said.” The CIA support since 2015 has included advanced surveillance systems, training both inside Ukraine and inside the US, the building of new headquarters for Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, and intelligence sharing thought unimaginable pre-2014. Officials told the Post that the CIA still maintains a significant presence in Kyiv to this day.The CIA helped the SBU form a new unit known as the “Fifth Directorate.” Recruits for the new unit were trained by the CIA outside of Kyiv with the purpose of forming groups “capable of operating behind front lines and working as covert groups.”The CIA also gave major support to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, known as the GUR. “We calculated that GUR was a smaller and more nimble organization where we could have more impact,” a former US intelligence official who worked in Ukraine told the Post. “GUR was our little baby. We gave them all new equipment and training.”Officials insisted that the CIA was not involved in targeted killings carried out by Ukrainian intelligence and said the focus was on “bolstering those services’ abilities to gather intelligence on a dangerous adversary.” The report said the SBU and the GUR have been involved in dozens of assassinations against Russian officials in Russian-controlled Ukraine, alleged Ukrainian collaborators, and Russian officials and civilians deep inside Russia.

Russia Says It's Aware of US Support for Ukraine's Intelligence Agencies - The Kremlin said Tuesday that Russian intelligence agencies are aware of the support Ukrainian intelligence receives from the US and Britain.The comments came in response to a report published by The Washington Post on Monday that detailed how the CIA has funded and built up Ukrainian intelligence services that are now conducting attacks inside Russia, including targeted assassinations.The support included tens of millions of dollars in funding since 2015 and the creation of a new directorate within the Security Service of Ukraine, known as the SBU. The report said another directorate was added to work with Britain’s MI6 spy agency.“Let’s not forget what we said a long time ago: Our intel agencies have repeatedly pointed to the evidence that we have of Ukrainian intelligence being closely supervised by the intelligence services of the United States, and the United Kingdom, one might add,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.“Our intelligence agencies have long been quite well informed about this, and we have duly taken it into account,” Peskov added. Russian officials have often said Ukraine could not conduct attacks inside Russian territory without intelligence support from the West.The CIA-backed forces were responsible for the August 2022 killing of Darya Dugina, daughter of Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin. Dugina was a civilian, but Ukrainian officials justified her killing because she supported the war in Ukraine. The Post’s sources insisted the CIA was not involved in the assassination but did not withdraw support because of it or other targeted killings.

Paul Whelan tells Blinken leaving him out of prisoner swap was like a ‘death warrant’ -Former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, who is imprisoned in Russia, told Secretary of State Antony Blinken in an August phone call that leaving him out of a second prisoner swap was like signing “a death warrant.” “I told him, point blank, that leaving me here the first time painted a target on my back, and leaving me here the second time basically signed a death warrant,” Whelan told CNN in an phone interview from his prison camp on Friday. Whelan, 53, said he also told Blinken that “unless they got me back, it could be quite challenging in the future, especially with my age and the sort of work we have to do from a health and safety point of view.” The Biden administration has negotiated two known prisoner swaps, securing the releases of Trevor Reed in April 2022 and of WNBA star Brittney Griner in December 2022. Whelan in his conversation with CNN rreiterated his confidence in Blinken and in the administration. Whelan has previously stated that he has gotten assurances from the United States that officials are working hard to secure his return. Whelan praised Blinken as “a person who obviously cares and he cares deeply about the situation,” and said Blinken “told me that he’s working quite diligently and his team is working quite diligently to find a resolution to this situation.” Whelan also acknowledged that Russians view him as “high value, so they want something high value in return.”

Chinese fighter jet came within 10 feet of US bomber, Pentagon says A Chinese fighter jet came within 10 feet of a U.S. B-52 bomber that was conducting legal, routine operations over the South China Sea, according to a statement late Thursday from the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. U.S. officials said they were they were “concerned this pilot was unaware of how close he came to causing a collision.” This was just the latest of more than 180 incidents that the Defense Department (DOD) describes as “unsafe” and “unprofessional” between the two nations since fall 2021. The DOD says these incidents have also included “other behaviors that seek to impinge upon the ability of the United States and other nations to safely conduct operations where international law allows.” During the night intercept, the Chinese pilot was flying in limited visibility conditions “in a manner contrary to international air safety rules and norms,” according to the statement. “Military aircraft,” the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command added, “when intentionally approaching another, shall operate with professional airmanship and give due regard for the safety of other aircraft.” China blamed the U.S. for the incident in its own statement, claiming the United States was trying to provoke the eastern Asian nation, which claims most of the South China Sea as its own territory. The United States and other countries have pushed back on this claim. In the United States’s statement, officials described the area as “international airspace.”

US Defence Department report inflates the “China threat” - The US Defence Department last week released its annual report on what it regards as the “pacing challenge” to the interests of US imperialism—China and its military, or People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Backgrounding journalists on the report, a senior Defence Department official bluntly declared that China was continuing its efforts to overturn the so-called international rules-based order and building an increasingly effective military to further these aims. In reality, as the US escalates its buildup for war against China—consolidating alliances, joint war games and basing arrangements in the Indo-Pacific—it grotesquely exaggerates the real balance of military forces to justify its own bellicose actions and provocations. The international rules-based order is the US-dominated imperialist order established after World War II in which Washington set the rules to meet its economic and strategic interests. In its decline, the US is determined to maintain its global hegemony by all means, including military. Even as it prepares for war against China, the US and its NATO allies are waging war against Russia in Ukraine and backing Israel’s genocidal bombardment of Gaza to the hilt, threatening a wider war in the Middle East. The report, which reeks of hypocrisy throughout, is mandated by Congress. It is largely confined to developments in 2022. The Biden administration’s provocations aimed at China centre on inflaming tensions over Taiwan—an island claimed by Beijing that is crucial both strategically and economically. Just as it goaded Russia into invading Ukraine, the US is rapidly upending the status quo established in the 1970s when it accepted the One China policy—that is, Taiwan is part of China and de facto that Beijing is the legitimate government of all China. The report repeats US propaganda declaring that China has “amplified diplomatic, political, and military pressure against Taiwan in 2022” and the PLA has “increased provocative and destabilising actions in and around the Taiwan Strait.” These “included ballistic missile overflights of Taiwan, sharply increased flights into Taiwan’s self-declared ADIZ (Air Defence Identification Zone) and a series of major military exercises near Taiwan.” The report does not refer to Washington’s overturning of long-standing diplomatic protocols that limited official contact with Taipei. Despite protests from Beijing, a stream of top American officials has visited Taiwan, parallelled by supposed “transits” by Taiwanese officials, including President Tsai Ing-wen. What the Pentagon’s report refers to as the PLA’s “increased provocative and destabilising actions” are in fact responses to Washington’s closer diplomatic and military ties with Taipei, which undermine the fiction that the US adheres to the One China policy. The major Chinese military exercises across the Taiwan Strait in 2022 took place as US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taipei in August—accompanied by a US aircraft carrier battle group stationed in nearby waters. In seeking to paint China as “coercive” and “intimidating,” the report claims an increasing number of unsafe intercepts of US, allied and partner vessels and aircraft operating in the Indo-Pacific region, including “over 180 instances of coercive and risky air intercepts against US aircraft” between 2021 and 2023. The vast bulk, if not all, of these incidents were undoubtedly in strategically sensitive airspace and waters close to the Chinese mainland where the US has been escalating its military presence and provocative military “freedom of navigation” operations.

Senate Votes Down Bill to Withdraw Troops from Niger - The Senate on Thursday rejected a bill that would have directed President Biden to withdraw all US troops from Niger, where a military government has been in power since a July 26 coup that removed former President Mohamed Bazoum. The bill failed overwhelmingly in a vote of 11-86. The resolution was led by Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and co-sponsored by Sens. Mike Lee (R-UT) and Roger Marshall (R-KS). The eight other senators who voted in favor of the bill include Tim Kaine (D-VA), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Peter Welch (D-VT), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), John Kennedy (R-LA), JD Vance (R-OH), Ed Markey (D-MA), and Mike Braun (R-IN).During the debate on the Senate floor, Paul questioned the authorization for the US presence in Niger as it’s justified by the authorization for the use of military force (AUMF) that was passed in the wake of 9/11 to invade Afghanistan. “Using an AUMF from 22 years ago, an authorization to get the people who attacked us on 9/11, to justify a war in Niger is a ridiculous notion and should be rejected out of hand,” he said, according toResponsible Statecraft.The US has about 1,100 troops in Niger and a major drone base in the country, known as Air Base 201. The Biden administration recently formally declared the events of July 26 a coup, meaning the US can no longer provide military assistance to the junta, but there’s no sign the US plans to withdraw.France began withdrawing its troops from Niger after the post-coup government, led by Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani, demanded the French leave. So far, the junta has not asked the US to exit the country, and there has been reports that the US is considering a waiver to allow continued cooperation with Niger’s military.“Does it make sense to station over 1000 troops in a country ruled by a military junta?” Paul asked on the Senate floor. “We’re in the middle of a potential war with 1100 troops in Niger where the democratically elected president has been deposed, and they’re being ruled by a military junta and still our troops are there.”

House Republicans embark on electing third speaker nominee as Trump looms - The Washington Post - - House Republicans will regroup and again try to elect a speaker of the House this week, a usually simple task that has proved nearly impossible in a divided and wounded Republican conference that has for three weeks been unable to choose a leader. Eight candidates from across the Republican ideological spectrum presented their pitch to their party Monday in another closed-door meeting, a rare event that has become commonplace in recent weeks. Republicans have been without a leader since they removed Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) as speaker earlier this month and then failed to coalesce around Majority Leader Steve Scalise (La.) and Rep. Jim Jordan (Ohio) as their next nominees on the House floor. This week’s deliberation, however, could have an additional complicating factor of unknown consequence: former president Donald Trump. Trump, who has been occupied with legal troubles and a presidential campaign, has largely allowed House Republicans to determine their own fate, saying on Monday that he’s “tried to stay out of it.” And it’s not clear the power of his endorsement, or lack thereof. Jordan, his preferred candidate, stepped down last week as the conference’s speaker-designee, despite intense pressure from conservative supporters who flooded congressional offices with phone calls. But the threat of Trump’s opposition remains. Behind the scenes, he personally directed his allies to hammer front-runner candidate, Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), according to two people familiar with the directive who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations. Emmer’s sins, according to people close to Trump, include voting to certify the 2020 election and failing to endorse Trump, both privately and publicly. Emmer, 62, also has gained the reputation of being the last Republican in leadership to publicly defend Trump in various situations. Trump’s opinion is, of course, not the only factor in the race. When Republicans eventually elect a speaker, they will immediately be faced with navigating an upcoming government funding deadline and a $106 billion emergency aid package for Israel, Ukraine and the southern border. The conference is set to vote behind closed doors via secret ballot for their preferred candidate Tuesday morning, and the lowest-ranking candidate will be eliminated in subsequent rounds until someone receives majority support. The speaker-designate must then find the support of 217 Republicans — a majority of the House of Representatives — on the House floor, as no Democrat is expected to back the Republican speaker candidate. “Anyone who went home would have heard from their constituents that enough was enough. We have to get back to governing,” Rep. Marc J. Molinaro (R-N.Y.) said. He hails from a swing district and said he wanted a speaker who would “recognize that members like me and constituents like mine deserve a seat at the table.” In addition to Emmer, Reps. Kevin Hern (Okla.), Pete Sessions (Tex.), Austin Scott (Ga.), Byron Donalds (Fla.), Jack Bergman (Mich.), Mike Johnson (La.) and Gary Palmer (Ala.) are running for speaker and pledging they can unite Republicans. Rep. Dan Meuser (Pa.) dropped out of the race after Monday’s forum, saying he was pleased to have input on “some structural reforms” to the speaker’s role. He pointedly noted that “my constituents are furious” and “they are blaming us” for the dysfunction on the Hill.

Divided GOP bombarded by Speaker candidates - A bitterly divided House GOP conference will meet behind closed doors Tuesday to elect a new Speaker nominee, this time choosing from a menu of eight members ranging from establishment figures to anti-institutional lawmakers who say they want to shake things up. Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) is widely seen as a favorite, though it is far from clear that he — or anyone in the conference — could secure the votes needed to win the gavel on the House floor after the chaos of the last few weeks. In the backroom meeting, only a majority is needed to win the group’s nomination. But whoever emerges from that internal election will need near-unanimous support from the conference on the floor — a herculean task that the GOP’s two previous nominees fell short of accomplishing. Tuesday’s nomination vote comes exactly three weeks after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was ousted from his post. After a pair of failed candidates, heightened tensions among members and three weeks of stalemate in the House, many are pessimistic about the conference’s chances of choosing his successor this time around. “Getting 217 is obviously going to be very difficult and is the sort of Rubik’s Cube of the answer to all of this,” said Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.” Adding a new layer, former President Trump waded back into the Speaker contest, though he stopped short of making an official endorsement. That could make new waves into the ongoing quest for the gavel that has fractured the GOP conference and left the House in a weeks-long standstill. Trump called several Speaker candidates over the weekend, sources confirmed to The Hill, but he indicated he does not plan to formally throw his support behind one aspirant — after his first pick failed. Trump initially endorsed Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) for Speaker, but the Judiciary Committee chair fell short of the gavel on three House floor ballots as Republicans withheld support, and the House GOP conference then voted to remove him as its nominee. Even without a formal endorsement, Trump’s involvement in the race — albeit from a distance — could hurl a new curveball into the entire process, considering the former president’s polarizing presence in the House GOP conference and the bitter divisions already coursing through the group. “We’re looking at a lot of people. And you know, I’m sort of trying to stay out of that as much as possible, but they’ll get it straightened out,” Trump said Monday in New Hampshire. “But no, I’ve always gotten along with him. I get along with all of them, really. A lot of good people, they have a lot of great people.” One of the candidates Trump talked to was Emmer — a dialogue that followed recent comments from Trump loyalists that were negative toward Emmer. Former Trump White House adviser Steve Bannon, for example, called Emmer a “Trump hater.” And Trump adviser Boris Epshteyn, speaking on former Bannon’s “War Room” show Friday, knocked Emmer for not yet endorsing Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. Emmer has said he does not plan to endorse any primary candidate. Emmer is one of the two Speaker candidates who voted to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election. One friend of Trump urged against reading into the chat. “Emmer called President Trump this weekend and the two had a polite conversation. End of story. Attempts from Emmer and his allies to make the call sound like something that it wasn’t is misleading,” a friend of Trump told The Hill.

Republicans fail to find consensus for US House speaker at candidate forum - Republicans, whose party infighting has stymied the US House of Representatives for three weeks, tried on Monday to find consensus on a new speaker to lead the chamber and address funding needs for Israel, Ukraine and the federal government. Nine speaker candidates, including No 3 House Republican Tom Emmer, made their pitches to fellow Republicans at a closed-door forum, and answered questions about how they would handle the job, which has become a flashpoint for factional strife between rightwing hardliners and more mainstream Republicans. The field quickly dropped to eight when one of the candidates, Dan Meuser, used his presentation to announce he was withdrawing. He told reporters it was time for the party to get its act together. “People are angry, people are frustrated, people are blaming us for the dysfunction, and they are kind of right. So we need to respond. We need to get this done,” Meuser said. The House has been rudderless since 3 October, when former speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted. Infighting later derailed leadership bids by two would-be successors: No 2 House Republican Steve Scalise and prominent conservative Jim Jordan. After Monday’s candidate forum, Republicans are due to meet at 9am ET on Tuesday to begin choosing a nominee behind closed-doors through a series of secret ballots. Monday night, Representative Matt Gaetz told CNN he thinks the House GOP “might” have a speaker Tuesday night. “We had some great candidates in there. And we’ll go from this current group down to our designee and I hope it’s a productive endeavor,” the Florida Republican said leaving the GOP’s candidate forum. McCarthy has endorsed Emmer, stressing his experience in working to marshal party votes on major legislation since January, when Republicans became the majority party. But Emmer could face an uphill battle if hardliners oppose him. The leadership vacuum of the past three weeks has stymied congressional action, as Congress faces a 17 November deadline to avoid a government shutdown by extending federal agency funding, and a request from President Joe Biden to approve military aid for Israel and Ukraine. House Republicans are concerned that none of the declared speaker candidates will be able to get the requisite 217 votes on the House floor needed to claim the speaker’s gavel.

Republican search for new US House leader returns to square one (Reuters) - Republicans, whose party infighting has paralyzed the U.S. House of Representatives for three weeks, tried on Monday to find consensus on a new speaker to lead the chamber and address funding needs for Israel, Ukraine and the federal government. Eight candidates to be speaker, including No. 3 House Republican Tom Emmer, made their pitches to fellow Republicans at a 2-1/2 hour closed-door forum and answered questions about how they would handle the job. "What I sense is a need to move forward because that's what the American people want from us. They want us to come here and legislate," said Representative Jack Bergman, one of the eight candidates. Republicans are due to meet again on Tuesday morning to begin choosing their nominee behind closed doors, through a series of secret ballots. With a narrow majority of 221-212 in the House, it is not clear whether any Republican can get the votes needed to claim the speakership. But some lawmakers said the party might keep voting and negotiating in private until their next nominee has locked in 217 Republican votes, the number needed to win the gavel over Democratic opposition, before going to the House floor. "We have to act like mature adults and come to a conclusion. And I think that we can," said Representative Marc Molinaro. The speaker position has this year been a flashpoint for factional strife between right-wing hardliners and more mainstream Republicans. The House has been rudderless since Oct. 3, when former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted as speaker. Infighting later derailed leadership bids by two would-be successors: No. 2 House Republican Steve Scalise and prominent conservative Jim Jordan. "People are angry, people are frustrated, people are blaming us for the dysfunction, and they are kind of right. So we need to respond. We need to get this done," Dan Meuser told reporters on Monday night.

House Republicans to hold 3rd internal vote to find speaker candidate 3 weeks after McCarthy ouster -- House Republicans are getting ready to vote for a speaker candidate for a third time after their past two nominees to lead the chamber dropped out of the race. GOP lawmakers are gathering behind closed doors at 9 a.m. on Tuesday for an election via anonymous secret ballot. There are nine Republicans jostling for the speakership right now: Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn.; GOP Conference Vice Chair Mike Johnson, R-La.; GOP Policy Committee Chair Gary Palmer, R-Ala.; Republican Study Committee Chair Kevin Hern, R-Okla.; Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla.; Rep. Jack Bergman, R-Mich.; Rep. Austin Scott, R-Ga.; Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas; and Rep. Dan Meuser, R-Pa. The vote comes after the candidates made their pitch to the GOP conference on Monday night at a candidate forum. The front-runner right now appears to be Emmer, who has been endorsed by ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. Other candidates going into the election with several endorsements under their belt are Donalds and Bergman. It’s likely to take several rounds of voting – a candidate must win a conference majority to be named speaker-designate under current House GOP Conference rules. If no candidate manages to win a majority during a given round, the person with the least amount of votes is withdrawn from the race and another round is held. The election comes three weeks after McCarthy’s ouster from the top job, the first time in history the House of Representatives removed their leader in the middle of a congressional term.

Tom Emmer: Republicans pick third nominee for House Speaker -- Republicans have chosen Tom Emmer as their third nominee to be Speaker of the House of Representatives, three weeks after their last leader was ousted in a right-wing revolt. The full chamber will now vote on the Minnesota congressman's candidacy, though it is unclear if he can win. Mr Emmer emerged as the party's pick in a series of secret internal ballots. The US legislature has been unable to pass bills since Kevin McCarthy was removed on 3 October. Mr Emmer, 62, is currently House Majority Whip, making him the third-most powerful Republican in the House. On Tuesday, successive rounds of voting by Republican lawmakers whittled down the candidates one by one. In the final round, Mr Emmer defeated Mike Johnson of Louisiana. It's unclear, however, when Mr Emmer's nomination will go to a vote on the House floor - or if he has enough support to become speaker. He may have difficulty winning over hard-line Republicans, including allies of former President Donald Trump. Following Mr Emmer's nomination, Mr Trump took to his Truth Social social media platform to call him a "RINO", or Republican In Name Only, who "never respected the power of a Trump endorsement or the breadth and scope of MAGA - Make America Great Again". Mr Trump added that he believed it would be "a tragic mistake" for Republicans to back him. Texas Republican Andy Webber told reporters after Tuesday's party meeting that Mr Emmer did not currently have the votes necessary to win a floor vote. Several other representatives said around 20 or more of their colleagues currently opposed Mr Emmer. Republicans only hold a narrow majority over Democrats in the lower chamber of Congress, so their nominee can only afford to lose a handful of votes from their own side. Two previous nominees, Steve Scalise of Louisiana and Jim Jordan of Ohio, both failed to gather enough support to replace Mr McCarthy. Following Mr Emmer's nomination, Mr Scalise told reporters that he does not foresee holding a floor vote until Mr Emmer feels he has the 217 votes necessary to emerge victorious.

Rep. Tom Emmer withdraws bid for House speaker hours after winning GOP nomination (AP) — Republican Tom Emmer abruptly abandoned his bid to become House speaker Tuesday, withdrawing hours after winning the internal party nomination once it became clear he would not have enough support from GOP colleagues for the gavel. Emmer, the GOP Whip, reversed course after Donald Trump objected to his nomination and hardliners in the House denied the party leader the votes he would need. He is the third Republican to fall short, leaving dejected Republicans no closer to resolving the chaos they have created since ousting Kevin McCarthy at the start of the month.Trump, speaking as he left the courtroom in New York where he faces business fraud charges, said his “un-endorsement” must have had an impact on Emmer’s bid. “He wasn’t MAGA,” said Trump, the party’s front-runner for the 2024 presidential election, referring to his Make America Great Again campaign slogan. For three weeks the House has been thrown into turmoil, the Republicans now trying desperately to end the bitter infighting and choose a new speaker who can credibly unite the GOP majority, lead the party and get the U.S. Congress working again.

Democrats gloat as Republicans start over on Speaker search -- Multiple Democrat House members dug into their Republican counterparts on Tuesday as the GOP conference finds itself back at square one following the collapse of House Majority Whip Tom Emmer’s (R-Minn.) Speakership nomination. House Democrats took to social media to call out the chaos within the GOP conference and urge lawmakers to find a solution — potentially a bipartisan one — to resume the functions of the lower chamber. Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.) posted a video of herself crossing out former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) name along with the 10 Republican lawmakers who have run for Speaker in the past three weeks. The California Democrat said “nope,” after crossing off each name and attached the text, “An update – the #GOPChaosContinues!” Reposting a video of GOP Rep. Andy Barr (Ky.) who said, “We might as well have Hakeem Jeffries and the Democrats control the Congress,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) wrote “Agreed,” in a post on X. In another post on X, Rep. Steven Hosford (D-Nev.) posted a meme that said, “I would like to see the chaos,” with the words “House Republicans,” below. “I’m convinced some of my colleagues are enjoying this crisis. “We must end the chaos,” Hosford wrote. “End the dysfunction. End the extremism. Let’s reopen the house. A bipartisan agreement appears to be the only clear path.” Some lawmakers have argued a bipartisan solution may be the only path to a Speakership in the wake of intense GOP division. Pushing for the election of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Penn.) wrote on X, “It’s been 21 days & the Republicans still can’t get it together and elect a House Speaker. I believe Democratic Leader [Jeffries] is the best person to lead the House in a bipartisan manner to get things done for the American people. Republicans, work with us already!”

GOP picks Mike Johnson for fourth attempt to end Speaker stalemate: Live coverage - House Republicans on Tuesday evening picked Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) for their fourth nominee for Speaker, just hours after House Majority Whip Tom Emmer’s (R-Minn.) bid ended.Emmer won the nomination after five rounds of voting, but withdrew after it became clear shortly afterward that the Minnesota lawmaker would have too many opponents to reach 217 votes on the House floor.Johnson on Tuesday night won 128 votes, but it remains to be seen if he can get to 217. The House has been without a Speaker for three weeks/ Follow along with live updates below.

House GOP gives Mike Johnson Speaker nod after whirlwind Emmer dropout - House Republicans nominated Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) for Speaker Tuesday evening, making him the fourth GOP lawmaker to win the conference’s nod — and its second nominee within a day after House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) dropped out of the running amid GOP opposition. Johnson’s nomination capped off a whirlwind day — but one that ended with House Republicans appearing to finally unite around a Speaker nominee. In an internal roll call validation vote for Johnson, all but three GOP members who voted “present” said they could vote for Johnson for Speaker on the House floor. While at least a dozen members were absent, putting him under the 217-vote threshold in the room, Johnson signaled optimism that he would win their support, too. “Democracy is messy sometimes,” Johnson, flanked by smiling GOP colleagues, said after the vote. “This House Republican majority is united.” The intention, Johnson said, is to go to the House floor on Wednesday. “This is servant leadership. We’re going to serve the people of this country. We’re going to restore their faith in this Congress, this institution of government. America is the last best hope of man on the earth,” Johnson said. The scene marked a stunning shift in attitude for House Republicans, who had been stuck in something of a doom loop in the three weeks since eight of their colleagues joined with Democrats to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who spearheaded the move to oust McCarthy, said of Johnson’s nomination: “It was worth it.” “We adore him, and I think he’s gonna do a great job for the country and for the right reasons. Mike Johnson has not bought and paid for. Mike Johnson does what is right,” Gaetz said. Johnson, 51, has been the House GOP’s vice chairman, a junior leadership position, since 2021. He is also a former chairman of the Republican Study Committee, the largest conservative caucus in the House.

Elise Stefanik Is Watching Her Male Colleagues Faceplant in the Speaker Fight - Steve Scalise. Tom Emmer. Gary Palmer. Jim Jordan. Mike Johnson. Everyone in the House GOP’s leadership ranks — plus a host of other rank-and-file members — has taken a shot at replacing Kevin McCarthy, with one curious exception: Elise Stefanik. The highest ranking Republican woman in the House, Stefanik has been conspicuously absent from the speakership discussion. While she has remained highly visible in running the conference meetings and offering enthusiastic endorsements of various failed nominees, the GOP conference chair has avoided throwing her own hat in the ring or even offering public comment about her intentions. It’s a potentially savvy move, allowing her to steer clear of the career-killing chaos now engulfing the GOP. And yet it’s also likely that she would struggle to win the votes, underscoring how difficult it will be to rise in the party in its current form. The Upstate New York Republican declined to be interviewed this week about the speaker saga. Asked in the House hallway Tuesday if she plans to run for speaker, Stefanik said she had “no updates.” Her senior advisor, Alex DeGrasse, said she is “laser-focused on unifying the House Republican Conference to elect the next speaker of the House.” In an August interview with POLITICO, the 39-year-old lawmaker did not rule out one day seeking the gavel. But the devoted ally of former President Donald Trump has thus far shown no inclination for getting sucked into the speaker fight, as the powerful men ahead of her have fallen through trap doors in pursuit of the job. “It’s resisting a lot of contrary temptations and just doing your job and doing it well,” New York Republican Party Chair Ed Cox said. “That gains you a lot of respect, and quiet respect is the coin of the realm in the House of Representatives.” People familiar with her thinking note she is just becoming comfortable in the conference chair post and doesn’t want to have her stature diminished if she makes an earnest bid for the speaker job and loses. House GOP leadership has also been something of a meat grinder for women in recent years, with Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers deciding not to run for reelection as conference chair in 2019 and her successor in the number three slot, former Rep. Liz Cheney, being ousted from the post in 2021.

Democrat predicts Tlaib will face censure once Speaker elected --Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz (Fla.) suggested Tuesday that Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) may face censure over her statements on the Israel-Hamas war once the House elects a Speaker. “I think once we get a House Speaker here, I think that censure resolution will come to the floor and I do think it’s something everyone should consider,” he said on Fox News when asked whether there could be a censure after Tlaib issued a statement about the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital explosion. “This is about U.S. intelligence, this is about U.S. information, this is about not willing to trust the Biden administration and U.S. intelligence but instead continuing to pretend like the Ministry of Health out of Gaza is nothing other than a terrorist organization,” he added. Some Republican lawmakers have floated a censure resolution directed at Tlaib over her comments about the ensuing violence in the region since Hamas launched its deadly attack on Israel on Oct. 7. Tlaib and a handful of other Democratic lawmakers have faced criticism for their remarks on the ongoing violence in Israel and Gaza.Moskowitz was responding to a statement put out by Tlaib on Monday, in which she raised questions about the hospital explosion last week. Israeli and United States intelligence officials placed blame for the explosion on an Islamic Jihad group in the days following the blast.However, Tlaib said that she cannot yet accept that Israel was not responsible for the explosion. “Media outlets and third-party analysts have raised doubts about claims and evidence offered by both Israel and the Gaza Ministry of Health, and I agree with the United Nations that an independent investigation is necessary,” Tlaib said in her statement.. “I cannot uncritically accept Israel’s denials of responsibility as fact, especially in light of confirmation from the World Health Organization that Israel has bombed numerous medical facilities in Gaza and reports from the Palestinian Red Crescent Society of ongoing threats from the Israeli military to evacuate hospitals,” she continued. Initial reports on the blast relied largely on public statements from the militant group Hamas blaming Israel’s airstrikes for the explosion. At the time of the explosion, Tlaib targeted the Biden administration on social media over the hospital blast in a post that is still up. “Israel just bombed the Baptist Hospital killing 500 Palestinians (doctors, children, patients) just like that,” Tlaib said on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “[President Biden,] this is what happens when you refuse to facilitate a ceasefire & help de-escalate.”

Live updates: Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana elected speaker of the House - Rep. Mike Johnson secured the speaker's gavel without losing any GOP votes Wednesday after weeks of party infighting left the House in chaos. The Louisiana lawmaker has been a vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump and was a key congressional figure in the failed efforts to overturn the 2020 election. There were 220 votes for Johnson and 209 votes for Democrat Hakeem Jeffries. There was unanimous GOP support behind Johnson. One Republican – Rep. Derrick Van Orden – was absent from the vote. House Republicans faced intensifying pressure to elect a new speaker after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted more than three weeks ago. The House has remained effectively frozen since then — a dire situation as Congress faces a November funding deadline and as crisis unfolds abroad in Ukraine and with Israel’s war against Hamas.The speaker was a key congressional figure in the failed efforts to overturn the 2020 election for former President Donald Trump. He sent an email from a personal account in 2020 to every House Republican soliciting signatures for an amicus brief in the long-shot Texas lawsuit seeking to invalidate electoral college votes from multiple states. He now faces pressing issues, including a potential shutdown.Government funding is set to expire on November 17, and the GOP-controlled House will need to work with the Democratic-led Senate to avert a shutdown. Lawmakers must also consider aid to Ukraine and Israel. He's pushing for an "aggressive schedule." Johnson said following his victory that the House will move swiftly on several legislation, alluding to the GOP infighting that paralyzed the House. In the first vote under his speakership, House lawmakers passed a resolution in support of Israel with bipatisan votes.

Mike Johnson elected House speaker with unanimous GOP support, ending weeks of chaos — Rep. Mike Johnson, a Republican of Louisiana, won election as the new speaker of the House on Wednesday, ending three weeks of chaos since Rep. Kevin McCarthy's historic ouster.Johnson, a little-known lawmaker who is now second in line for the presidency, attracted the support of all 220 Republican members in attendance, surpassing the 215-vote total that was required to win. All 209 Democrats voted for Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the party's House leader."The people's House is back in business," Johnson told colleagues before being sworn in.Johnson was the party's fourth nominee for speaker in three weeks, having taken the place of Rep. Tom Emmer, whose candidacy lasted all of four hours on Tuesday. Two other previous candidates, Reps. Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan, withdrew their names from consideration earlier in the process after failing to unite the party's various factions.The new speaker has been in Congress since 2017 and has no experience in the House leadership. He laid out a plan for passing a series of government spending bills earlier in the week that attracted support from some of McCarthy's detractors, and his broad support among the Republican conference was a signal of lawmakers' desire to move past the divisive speaker fight and reopen the House. Johnson now faces a daunting list of challenges, with a fast-approaching government shutdown chief among them. The House is staring down a deadline of Nov. 17, when current government funding expires. In his blueprint for the next few months, Johnson said a stopgap measure extending funding until January or April may be needed to approve more spending and avoid a shutdown. Speaking after the vote, Johnson vowed to hit the ground running and get the House back to work. A government shutdown is fast approaching, and the White House has requested a $106 billion emergency aid package for Israel, Ukraine and other priorities. "We're going to dispense with all the usual ceremonies and celebrations that traditionally follow a new speakership because we have no time for either one," Johnson said. "The American people's business is too urgent in this moment. The hour is late. The crisis is great."Johnson has laid out a tentative legislative schedule to approve new spending and take up other pieces of legislation, but things could change quickly as he confronts the realities of governing, especially given the fractious nature of the Republican conference.

House Approves Resolution Backing Israel in New Speaker's First Move - The House on Wednesday approved a resolution that expressed strong support for Israel, the first bill brought to the floor after Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) was elected as the chamber’s new speaker.The resolution passed in a vote of 412-10 and says that the US “stands” with Israel in the wake of the October 7 Hamas attack and as Israel is relentlessly bombing Gaza. The resolution reaffirmed the US commitment to providing military aid to Israel and said Congress will work to pass more.The bill says the House “stands ready to assist Israel with emergency resupply and other security, diplomatic, and intelligence support.” It also called for the US to continue enforcing sanctions on Iran and condemned the Hamas attack.Nine Democrats voted against the resolution, including Reps. Jamaal Bowman (NY), André Carson (IN), Cori Bush (MO), Al Green (TX), Summer Lee (PA, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY), Ilhan Omar (MN), Delia Ramirez (IL) and Rashida Tlaib (MI). The sole Republican who voted against the measure was Rep. Thomas Massie (KY). Explaining his opposition to the bill on X, Massie pointed to the sanctions aspect and the promises of military support and aid. “It contains an open-ended promise of military support that is so broad that it could be interpreted to commit US soldiers to the conflict. US troops should not be engaged in this conflict,” he said.Johnson won the speakership hours before the vote and pledged his first action would be in support of Israel. “Our nation’s greatest ally in the Middle East is under attack. The first bill that I’m gonna bring to this floor in just a little while will be in support of our dear friend Israel,” he said. President Biden has requested $14 billion in new military aid for Israel as part of a massive $105 billion spending package that also includes $61 billion for the Ukraine war, $7.4 billion that will go toward military aid to Taiwan, and other spending in the Asia Pacific, and funds for border security. It’s not clear if the House will take up the entire spending package or if it will seek to divide it into individual bills. Johnson has previously voted against spending on Ukraine, earning him a grade of “F” from Republicans for Ukraine, a neoconservative group that’s trying to rally GOP support for the proxy war.

Johnson throws down gauntlet on Israel-Ukraine spending battle - The bipartisan effort to aid Ukraine is facing an increasingly complicated road ahead in the coming weeks as House conservatives, now led by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), set the stage for a thorny battle over the proposed funding. Johnson, in his first interview with Fox News on Thursday, said he told the White House the consensus of the GOP conference “is that we need to bifurcate” aid to Ukraine and Israel. “We can’t allow Vladimir Putin to prevail in Ukraine, because I don’t believe it would stop there, and it would probably encourage and empower China to perhaps make a move on Taiwan. We have these concerns,” Johnson said Thursday. But he also argued the White House has not been clear on “what is the endgame in Ukraine.” His comments came hours after a group of conservative senators introduced a bill to send aid to Israel, splitting it off from the White House’s $105 billion supplemental funding request that also included aid for Ukraine, Taiwan and other issues. The push underscores the growing Republican resistance to linking assistance for both nations, even as GOP leadership has pushed for a joint package in the Senate. A President Biden pressed Congress for the aid in a prime-time address last week, with Ukraine to receive about $61 billion in lethal assistance, while Israel, a far better militarily equipped country, to get about $14 billion for air and missile defenses. “The difference here is that Israel has a very advanced military, a very Western style military already. So the needs writ large are different between what Israel is asking for and what Ukraine is asking for,” Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters Thursday. The two countries are also fighting vastly different wars. Ukraine is struggling through a grinding ground counteroffensive and artillery campaign to take back territory from Russian troops, a fight bogged down by mines and other defenses that Moscow’s forces have had plenty of time to set up. Israel, on the other hand, is poised to launch a ground offensive against Hamas within a dense cityscape that will require intense house-to-house urban fighting.

Ukraine, Israel funding request should be split: House speaker (Reuters) - Newly elected U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson said on Thursday that funding to support Ukraine and Israel should be handled separately, suggesting he will not back President Joe Biden's $106 billion aid package for both countries.Johnson, speaking in an interview on Fox News, has concerns about Ukraine funding in general, and believes any money for Israel will need to be funded by cuts elsewhere.He met Biden on Thursday and said he told White House staff "our consensus among House Republicans is we need to bifurcate those issues."Biden wants Congress to provide $106 billion in supplemental funding, with the bulk of the money going to bolster Ukraine's defenses and the remainder split among Israel, Indo-Pacific and border enforcement. Johnson said of Ukraine funding: "We want to know what the object is there, what is the end game in Ukraine."The White House has not provided that," he added.Biden is betting that including money for Israel and immigration will help convince House Republicans wary of sending additional money to Ukraine to support the measure."Israel is a separate matter – we are going to bring forward a standalone Israel funding measure (of) over $14 billion,” Johnson said in the interview. He said House Republicans will look for other areas to cut in the budget in order to finance the funding for Israel. The package includes $14.3 billion for Israel to fund air and missile defense support and other initiatives, as well as $61 billion for Ukraine.

JD Vance calls Speaker Johnson’s Ukraine remarks ‘concerning’ -- Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) is criticizing newly elected House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) for comments suggesting Johnson could support additional U.S. support for Ukraine. “To his great credit, the new Speaker has been a stalwart on the Ukraine issue — voting consistently against an endless conflict with no plan from the Biden administration,” Vance said on X, formerly Twitter. “It’s concerning to see him change his tune so quickly after being elevated to this role.” Vance’s comments come after Johnson, in an interview with Fox News’s Sean Hannity, stopped well short of ruling out additional support for Ukraine. Johnson, who has voted against aid packages to Ukraine in the past, said the U.S. should not allow Russia to win the war, but Republicans needed to make sure any U.S. support was accounted for. “[W]e can’t allow Vladimir Putin to prevail in Ukraine because I don’t believe it would stop there, and it would probably encourage and empower China to perhaps make a move on Taiwan. We have these concerns,” Johnson said. “We’re not going to abandon them, but we have a responsibility, a stewardship responsibility, over the precious treasure of the American people and we have to make sure that the White House is providing the people with some accountability for the dollars,” he added.

House Republicans pass first government funding bill under new Speaker --House Republicans on Thursday passed a sprawling partisan energy plan, the first funding bill approved on the floor since the lower chamber ousted its Speaker more than three weeks ago. The measure passed in 210-199 vote Thursday afternoon, with just one Republican no vote. It is only the second piece of legislation to cross the floor after the House installed Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Wednesday. “This is the first step in getting our appropriations done,” Johnson said shortly after passage. “Yesterday, I promised we were going to get back to work for the American people and today we proved it.” The bill cuts more than $5 billion in spending that was passed as part of Democrats’ signature climate, tax and health care bill — which was approved without GOP support last year. The legislation is unlikely to become law, as the White House has threatened to veto it, but it represents the House Republican position on energy- and water-related issues as they negotiate 2024 funding with the Democrat-led Senate and the White House. Rep. Ken Buck (Colo.) was the only Republican to vote with Democrats against the measure. Buck spokesperson Victoria Marshall said in an email that the congressman voted no because he had wanted funding in the bill to remain at 2019 levels. Among other provisions, the legislation passed by the House on Thursday targets a program that gives rebates to consumers who purchase electric appliances. It would also cut a program in the climate bill aimed at helping state and local governments adopt climate-friendly building codes. Ahead of the bill’s passage, Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tenn.), who heads the subcommittee tasked with crafting the funding bill, defended the measure on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, as making “America safer, more energy secure and increases our global economic competitiveness.” He added that Republicans “are investing in America while cutting billions in wasteful, unnecessary, and inflationary spending.” On the other hand, when it threatened to veto the bill this month, the White House said that the climate cuts would “result in unacceptable harm to clean energy and energy efficiency initiatives that lower energy costs and critical investments in rural America.” The bill would fund the Energy Department, providing about 8 percent more than last year for the department’s nuclear weapons agency. But the GOP is also eyeing sharp cuts to renewable energy and energy efficiency. The measure itself would also cut the department’s Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office by about $466 million, or 13 percent compared with what it was given in last year’s appropriations bill, drawing more criticism from Democrats.

New House Speaker Champions Fossil Fuels and Dismisses Climate Concerns - The New York Times - Representative Mike Johnson of Louisiana, the newly elected House speaker, has questioned climate science, opposed clean energy and received more campaign contributions from oil and gas companies than from any other industry last year.Even as other Republican lawmakers increasingly accept the overwhelming scientific consensus that human activity is dangerously heating the planet, the unanimous election of Mr. Johnson on Wednesday suggests that his views may not be out of step with the rest of his party.Indeed, surveys show that climate science has been politicized in the United States to an extent not experienced in most other countries. A Pew Research Center survey released Tuesday found that a vast majority of Democrats polled — 85 percent — said that climate change is an extremely or very serious problem, while 47 percent of Republicans viewed climate change as not too serious or not a problem at all.“It should concern us all that someone with such extreme views and so beholden to the fossil fuel industry has such power and influence during a time when bold action is more critical than ever,” said Ben Jealous, the executive director of the Sierra Club, an environment group.Mr. Johnson, whose district includes Shreveport, a former oil town that has diversified over the past decade, was first elected to Congress in 2016. A former constitutional lawyer, he does not sit on committees that decide the fate of major energy issues.But he has consistently voted against dozens of climate bills and amendments, opposing legislation that would require companies to disclose their risks from climate change and bills that would reduce leaks of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from oil and gas wells. He has voted for measures that would cut funding to the Environmental Protection Agency.At a town hall in 2017, Mr. Johnson said: “The climate is changing, but the question is, is it being caused by natural cycles over the span of the Earth’s history? Or is it changing because we drive S.U.V.s? I don’t believe in the latter. I don’t think that’s the primary driver.”Last year, when Democrats passed climate legislation that called for investing $370 billion in clean energy, Mr. Johnson criticized it as a plan to send taxpayer dollars to “green energy slush funds. After Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, Democrat of New York, and Senator Ed Markey, Democrat of Massachusetts, unsuccessfully filed “Green New Deal” legislation in 2019 to aggressively cut emissions, move the country toward 100 percent renewable energy and address a host of social issues, Mr. Johnson hit back.Then the chairman of the Republican Study Committee, Mr. Johnson issued a 13-page paper dubbing the climate plan “A Greedy New Steal.” He called the Democrats’ plan “a thinly veiled attempt to implement the policies that would usher in a new socialist society in America.”Last year, when Democrats passed climate legislation that provided for investing $370 billion in clean energy, Mr. Johnson criticized it as a plan to send taxpayer dollars to “green energy slush funds.” Much of the private investment stemming from that law is taking hold in Republican-led states.Since 2018, Mr. Johnson has received about $240,000 in campaign contributions from the oil and gas industry, according to Open Secrets, a campaign finance watchdog.

House Speaker Mike Johnson’s First Big Bill Cuts Biden’s Climate Change Funding -- The first major legislation House Republicans passed under newly installed Speaker Mike Johnson would cut billions of dollars in consumer rebates for energy efficiency upgrades included in President Joe Biden’s signature climate law. The $58 billion measure, which funds the Energy Department and other agencies, rescinds more than $5.5 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act, including a $4.5 billion program for homeowners to switch to more energy efficient appliances and a $1 billion grant program to help states craft more stringent building energy codes.The bill, approved Thursday on a 210-199 vote, also slashes the Energy Department’s energy efficiency and renewable energy office funding by 42% below last year’s levels and revokes $15 billion in loan authority from the department’s loan guarantee program.Johnson last year criticized the Inflation Reduction Acts’s spending on climate and clean energy measures as “green energy slush funds.”Representative Morgan Griffith, a West Virginia Republican, said cutting the climate spending would save taxpayers “huge amounts of money.”While the House measure isn’t expected to pass the Democratic Senate - or receive Biden’s signature - without changes, it represents the Republican’s starting point as they negotiate spending with Democrats ahead of a mid-November government shutdown deadline. Johnson has pledged the House will vote on the remaining spending bills in the coming weeks.Republican members of the House Appropriations Committee drafted the cuts before Johnson was elected party leader.Johnson, of Louisiana, is a long-time ally of his state’s oil and gas sector, and has received about $280,000 in donations from the industry, according to the watchdog group OpenSecrets. The League of Conservation Voters, an environmental group, has given Johnson a 2% lifetime achievement score, citing dozens of votes against climate legislation and other environmental bills.Johnson has “denied that climate change is a result of fossil fuels and polluters, and appears poised to continue to cater to Big Oil and Gas allies as Speaker,” the environmental group said in a statement.

Senate Republicans look for cover in carbon tariff push - Ahead of new legislation that would impose a tariff on carbon-intensive imported goods, Sen. Bill Cassidy wants to send a message: It’s not a carbon tax. That’s why the Louisiana Republican is sponsoring a resolution expressing disapproval for a carbon tax, specifically. “People confuse the two, and we have to make sure there is no confusion,” Cassidy told E&E News on Thursday afternoon. “What we’re proposing is not a domestic carbon tax, and it is not intended to lead to a domestic carbon tax. [The resolution] makes that clear.” This clarification underscores the political minefield ahead for Republicans on the concept of imposing fees on the heaviest polluters as a form of climate action, even as more Republicans are intrigued by the idea of boosting U.S. competitiveness against foreign adversaries like China. The European Union began implementing such a tariff this month in the form of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, or CBAM. It also highlights anxieties that persist among conservatives. The chief worry is that bipartisan collaboration on bills linking carbon emissions to trade policy is the first step to introducing new taxes that could prompt companies to move overseas. There, energy production is typically dirtier, which would drive up greenhouse gas emissions. Backers of the effort further acknowledge the need to educate and convince other Republicans on the concept of tying trade policy to emissions reduction goals. Cassidy said Thursday he would be introducing the “Foreign Pollution Fee,” which he has outlined in concept as recently as last month in Foreign Affairs magazine, “very soon.” It would impose tariffs on carbon-heavy imports, much like a CBAM. He explained he was using the new resolution, which “express[es] the sense of Congress that a carbon tax would be detrimental to the economy of the United States,” to “set the stage” for introduction of that larger bill. Fourteen other Republicans so far have signed on to the anti-carbon tax resolution, including Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who has also said in the past he is working on CBAM legislation. Cramer has also been working with Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) on S. 1863, the “Providing Reliable, Objective, Verifiable Emissions Intensity and Transparency (PROVE IT) Act,” which would direct the Energy Department to study the carbon emissions of U.S. industrial products compared with the same products produced abroad..

60 House Republicans call on Speaker Mike Johnson to pass Farm Bill -More than 60 House Republicans are putting pressure on newly-minted Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to pass the Farm Bill. The omnibus appropriations bill expired at the end of September amid broader disarray in the chamber — casting the future of a wide swath of American food and nutrition programs into doubt. Now a coalition of agriculture state Republicans are pushing the House’s new leader to pass a new bill before the funding runs out. The signatories, which included leading Republicans from key agricultural states like Iowa and South Dakota, called the bill’s lapse a matter of “national security.” They wrote that the funding is essential to keeping American farmers, ranchers and foresters in business and domestically-produced food, biofuel and fiber cheap and plentiful. “We urge you and the Conference at-large to be united in ensuring swift passage of a strong Farm Bill that is written by farmers, for farmers, and by rural communities, for rural communities,” the signatories wrote. But the push also highlights deep divides among House Republicans. A majority of them did not sign the letter, including more than 80 percent of the hard-line Freedom Caucus, a group whose opposition to both government spending and bipartisan compromise helped drive Johnson’s predecessor from power. The Freedom Caucus is pushing for steep cuts to aid programs that put food on the table for millions of Americans, in particular, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). SNAP makes up about 80 percent of the total Farm Bill package, and many Freedom Caucus members have signaled that the new work requirements for recipients — passed as part of the debt ceiling fight this summer — don’t go far enough. “We’re going to work every solitary angle that we can” to curb SNAP, Freedom Caucus member Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) said earlier this year. Like 32 of his fellow caucus members, Clyde — who has said SNAP is “one of the largest government handout programs” and that it “needs to be curtailed” — didn’t sign the letter. The only Freedom Caucus members to sign Friday’s letter were GOP Reps. Lauren Boebert (Colo.), Byron Daniels (Fla.), Clay Higgins (La.), Mary Miller-Meeks (Ia.), Barry Moore (Ala.), Ralph Norman (S.C.) and Matt Rosendale (Mt.).

White House slams Speaker Johnson’s ‘offensive accusation’ that the ‘human heart’ is to blame for mass shootings - The White House on Friday blasted new Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) suggestion that the “human heart” is to blame for mass shootings after a gunman in Maine killed 18 people this week. “We absolutely reject the offensive accusation that gun crime is uniquely high in the United States because of Americans’ ‘hearts,'” deputy press secretary Andrew Bates said in a statement. “Gun crime is uniquely high in the United States because congressional Republicans have spent decades choosing the gun industry’s lobbyists over the lives of innocent Americans,” Bates added. “Gun violence is now the main reason that American children’s hearts stop beating. Not cancer, not car accidents — gun violence.” He said a root cause of gun violence is Republican lawmakers’ unwillingness to act to prevent “weapons of war” from being used by civilians, calling the shooting in Lewiston, Maine, “the latest proof point that gun crime is an urgent national security crisis.” “It’s not the result of an imagined deficiency in the hearts of the American people; nor is it because women have the right to make their own health care decisions, as the Speaker once claimed,” Bates said.

“Effective Altruism” Network Infiltrates Congress, Federal Agencies to Create Silicon Valley Favoring AI Policies by Yves Smith -- Politico recently ran an important story on how the AI policy sausage-making is being done that does not appear to be getting the attention it warrants. That may be because the piece, How a billionaire-backed network of AI advisers took over Washington, tried doing too many things at once. It presents the main nodes in this sprawling undertaking. Politico being oriented towards Beltway insiders, showing how this enterprise has entrenched itself in policy-making and identifying some of the key players in this enterprise is no small undertaking, considering that most are Flexians, as in wear many hats and are linked to multiple influence groups. For instance: RAND, the influential Washington think tank, received a $5.5 million grant from Open Philanthropy in April to research “potential risks from advanced AI” and another $10 million in May to study biosecurity, which overlaps closely with concerns around the use of AI models to develop bioweapons. Both grants are to be spent at the discretion of RAND CEO Jason Matheny, a luminary in the effective altruist community who in September became one of five members on Anthropic’s new Long-Term Benefit Trust. Matheny previously oversaw the Biden administration’s policy on technology and national security at the National Security Council and Office of Science and Technology Policy… In April, the same month Open Philanthropy granted RAND more than $5 million to research existential AI risk, Jeff Alstott, a well-known effective altruist and top information scientist at RAND, sketched out a plan to convince Congress to pass licensing requirements that would “constrain the proliferation” of advanced AI systems. In an April 19 email sent to several members of the Omidyar Network, a network of policy groups established by billionaire eBay founder Pierre Omidyar, Alstott attached a detailed AI licensing proposal which he claimed to have shared with approximately “40 Hill staffers of both parties.” The RAND researcher stressed that the proposal was “not a RAND report,” and asked recipients to “keep this document and attribution off the public internet.” You can see how hard this is to keep straight.¹ And the fact that people pretend to draw nice tidy boxes around their roles is hard to take seriously. Someone senior at RAND could conceivably be acting independently in writing an op-ed or giving a speech. But Alstott’s scheme and his promotion of it sounded like it took much more effort, raising the question of how a busy professional found the time to do that much supposed freelancing. While this is all helpful, it still does not get to what we were told months ago by a surveillance state insider about the underlying economic motivations for of all people, diehard Silicon Valley libertarians to be acting so out of character as to be seeking regulation. His thesis is that AI investors have woken up and realized there is nothing natively protectable or all that skill intensive about AI. All you need is enough computing power. And computing power is getting cheaper all the time. On top of that, users could come up with narrow applications and comparatively small training sets, like a law firm training on its own correspondence so as to draft certain types of client letters. So the promoters are creating a panic about purported AI dangers so as to restrict AI development/ownership to “safe hands” as in big tech incumbents, and bar development and use by small fry.

White House announces 31 tech hubs to focus on AI, clean energy and more — The White House on Monday announced it is designating 31 technology hubs in an effort to improve American competitiveness in the technology sector. The hubs will be able to compete for $40 million to $75 million each in grants, the White House said. A tech hub designation is “a strong endorsement of a region’s plan to supercharge a critical technology ecosystem and become a global leader over the next decade,” the U.S. Economic Development Administration said on its website. The move was authorized under the CHIPS and Science Act, the White House said, which President Joe Biden frequently touts as a highlight of his economic agenda. The act, which the president signed in August 2022, aimed to improve semiconductor manufacturing and supply chains in the U.S. It also authorized $10 billion to invest in technology hubs nationwide, according to the administration. “These Tech Hubs will catalyze investment in technologies critical to economic growth, national security, and job creation, and will help communities across the country become centers of innovation critical to American competitiveness,” the White House said in a news release. The hubs focus on a wide range of technological areas, including quantum computing, artificial intelligence, clean energy, medicine and biotechnology. The location of the hubs spans 32 states and Puerto Rico and include areas with a tribal government, coal communities and states with smaller populations, according to the U.S. Economic Development Administration. The designations “will be a widely recognized indicator of each region’s potential for rapid economic growth on the basis of their technological strength, and we believe will make it even more attractive to private investment and job creation,” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said Sunday on a call with reporters. “The designations reflect the diversity of our country. Many of our hubs include small cities, rural areas, historically underserved communities.”

The Supreme Court could soon change the internet forever — here’s what you need to know On Sept. 29, the Supreme Court announced it would rule on whether to allow recent laws passed in Florida and Texas that restrict social media sites from removing certain users and posts. These broad laws aim to prevent censorship of political candidates and all user viewpoints. The tech trade association NetChoice said these laws, currently blocked by federal courts, would “transform speech on the internet as we know it today.” The share of Americans ages 18 and over who use social media has ballooned from 50 percent to 72 percent in the last decade, according to Pew Research. As global conflicts escalate and the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the Supreme Court’s decision may have a profound impact on the future of online speech and on democracies worldwide. Lawmakers in Florida and Texas have argued their legislation is necessary to prevent social media platforms from unfairly censoring or suppressing conservative viewpoints. To their point, civil discourse is the backbone of well-functioning democracies. In fact, both sides of the political aisle have accused the social media giants of having biased moderation practices. A 2020 poll by Pew found that 75 percent of Americans — conservatives and liberals alike — believe Facebook and Twitter/X censor political views. Herein lies the rub. While the intentions behind these states’ legislation may be well-meaning, its approach is fundamentally flawed. The First Amendment of the Constitution protects individuals from government censorship. The question the Supreme Court is grappling with is the extent to which the First Amendment provides such rights to private enterprise. There’s a history of case law protecting the rights of privately owned publishers and social networks to make their own editorial decisions — including algorithmically sorted content. The U.S. Court of Appeals (11th Circuit) ruling in May 2022, which blocked Florida’s law, stated “while the Constitution protects citizens from governmental efforts to restrict their access to social media…no one has a vested right to force a platform to allow [a citizen] to contribute to or consume social media content.” However, in a contradictory ruling at the same time, the 5^th Circuit upheld the Texas law, denying private companies’ First Amendment rights. Of note, both circuit courts were comprised of three Republican judges. If the Supreme Court sides with the 5^th Circuit, thereby forcing social media sites to publish or not publish certain types of speech, in effect the government will ironically be trampling on the First Amendment rights of social media companies. This would set a troubling precedent. Once the government gets involved in making moderation decisions for social platforms, it’s easy to imagine how future lawmakers could abuse such powers — for instance, by forcing social platforms to promote the government’s position in international conflicts or to advocate for or against the validity of election results or the effectiveness of vaccines, depending on the party in power.

Social Security Update: Trust Fund, Income, Outgo, and Deficit in Fiscal 2023 - Contributions jumped 11.8% (more people working, big pay increases). Outgo jumped 12.0% (more people at retirement age and the 8.7% COLA). By Wolf Richter -- Total income from all sources jumped by $111 billion from the prior year, or by 10.7%, to a record $1.15 trillion in the US government fiscal year ended September 30, according to the Social Security Administration (SSA) today (green line in the chart below). By category of income:

• Contributions jumped by $110 billion, or by 11.8%, to $1.04 trillion due to employment growth and big pay increases in 2022 and 2023.
• Interest income from the securities in the Trust Fund dipped by $2 billion to $63 billion.
• Taxation of benefits rose by $3 billion to $50 billion.

Total outgo rose by $129 billion, or by 12.0%, to a record $1.20 trillion (red line), on the 8.7% Cost of Living Adjustment, the biggest since 1981, and more people at retirement age and drawing Social Security benefits. Benefits paid accounted for 99.2% of the outgo; the remaining 0.8% were made up of transfers to Railroad Retirement programs ($5.6 billion) and administrative costs ($4.3 billion). When the green line (total income) was above the red line (total outgo), the Trust Fund accumulated assets. When the green line fell below the red line, the Trust Fund shrank. The gap between income and outgo was $50 billion, up from a deficit of $32 billion in 2022, but down from the $55 billion deficit in 2021, after surpluses in 2020 and 2019. The first deficit in the data going back to 1987 occurred in 2018 ($19 billion). Until then, the annual surpluses had produced the $2.8 trillion in the Trust Fund at the time. The low 3.2% COLA for next year will slow the growth of the outgo. With the release of the CPI data two weeks ago, the CPI-W was also released. It’s the measure that the COLA calculations are based on, and they were pretty thin: In 2024, the COLA of 3.2% will be bad for retirees, but it will slow the deficit, or may even produce a surplus if employment and pay continue to grow at the current pace. The Social Security Trust Fund. Technically known as “Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund,” it declined by $50 billion, or by 1.8%, during the fiscal year, to $2.67 trillion, according to SSA data. These figures to not include the Disability Insurance Trust Fund, which by law is a separate entity from the OASI Trust Fund, and is not part of this discussion here. The OASI Trust Fund invests in interest-bearing Treasury securities and short-term cash management securities. These securities are not traded in the secondary market, similar to the popular I-bonds that many people, including a number of WOLF STREET commenters here, are holding at TreasuryDirect. It’s a good thing that the securities in the Trust Fund are not subject to the whims and occasional chaos of the secondary market: The value of these holdings – similar to the value of our accounts at TreasuryDirect – doesn’t fluctuate with the prices in the secondary market. The Trust Fund holds Treasury securities until they mature and then gets paid face value for them. Day-to-day price fluctuations are irrelevant for the Trust Fund. At the end of the fiscal year, the Trust Fund held $2.47 trillion in interest-bearing special-issue Treasury securities and $202 billion in short-term cash-management securities (“certificates of indebtedness”). Investing in Treasury securities when they’re issued and holding them until they mature is a low-risk conservative strategy that essentially eliminates credit risk. This strategy allows the SSA to operate the system with ultra-low administrative expenses, amounting to just 0.16% of the assets under management. The Fed’s interest rate repression created the deficit. The Trust Fund earned $63 billion in interest on its Treasury holdings in the fiscal year, down by 42% from the peak in 2010, the year of peak interest, though the Trust Fund balance was smaller in 2010 than today. The average weighted interest rate that the Trust Fund earned ticked up to 2.4% this fiscal year, from 2.3% last year, as higher yielding securities began replacing some lower yielding securities in the Fund – but it’s still just a minuscule improvement. As a result of the Fed’s interest rate repression starting in 2007, the interest rate that the Trust Fund earned was cut by more than half, from 5.1% in 2007, to 2.4% this year. Because the Fund invests in long-term securities and because interest rates of securities don’t change until the securities mature and are replaced with new securities, there is a lag before changes in long-term yields filter into the “average interest rate” and into the interest-income stream. The average number of years to maturity used to be around 7 to 7.5 years. But in 2020 it began to drop, and in the fiscal year through September, it declined to 5.67 years, the shortest on record. In other words, the current crop of higher-yielding securities is going to make their way into the Fund a little more quickly.

With Shutdown Averted, Is Social Security Safe? Nope! by James Roosevelt Jr., the grandson of FDR - Let’s talk Social Security. The government shutdown was averted (temporarily), so that’s a good thing, right? Trump is promising not to touch it. Benefits are not threatened, right?Wrong. Social Security has a bullseye on its back. As descendants of the New Deal leaders who created it, we recognize the warning signs, and need to shout the alarm.The right-wing hard-liners who fired House Speaker Kevin McCarthy—with no replacement anywhere in sight—are determined to balance the budget by reducing spending. The word “revenues” is an obscenity to them. And defense spending is sacred and untouchable.But even if they completely eliminated every single non-defense discretionary program—from food stamps to the FBI to border protection—it wouldn’t be enough. It would add up to about $900 billion, or about 15% of total federal spending, which would fall far short of balancing the budget. So their deficit-cutting zeal must inevitably turn to what is called mandatory spending, most prominently the largest government program of all, Social Security.Republican presidential candidates are increasingly emboldened to touch this deadly “third rail” of American politics. Nikki Haley mocked other candidates for promising not to touch Social Security. Ron DeSantis wants to “revamp” it. Mike Pence wants to privatize it, turning it over to Wall Street and adding trillions to the national debt—to replace the New Deal with a “better deal.”And although former President Donald Trump now swears he would never harm a hair on Social Security’s head, his history renders such assurances hollow. He has previously suggested that a second Trump term would mean cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Let’s not forget that his hugest unachieved social policy goal at the end of his presidency was the complete termination of Social Security’s principal funding source, the payroll tax.Former Speaker McCarthy proposes a national commission to examine ways to cut Social Security. The 175 members of the House Republican Study Committee have released their proposed budget for fiscal 2024, which would cut benefits by one-third, essentially transforming Social Security from an earned insurance benefit into a subsistence-level welfare benefit.Previous threats have included plans to sunset all mandatory spending every five years (brainchild of Senate GOP campaign chair Rick Scott), or even every single year (proposed by Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson). It’s true that Social Security will start having solvency problems by 2034 (according to the Social Security Administration), with retirees taking out more than current workers are putting in. To this, there are obviously only two solutions—cutting payout or increasing revenues. The Republicans in their budget acknowledge this, but they absolutely reject any whiff of the latter (here at 87-88). For a sustainable Social Security—the most popular government program in America—taking revenues off the table is two things: 1) insanity, and 2) unshakeable Republican orthodoxy. So let’s make the rich pay more of their fair share for Social Security. Let’s start with eliminating the cap on earnings that are subject to the payroll tax. Currently, earnings over $160,200 are totally exempt from payroll taxes. That means that the CEO making $10 million stops paying the 6.2% payroll tax after the first week of the year, while his janitor pays 6.2% for the entire year. That’s an outrageous affront to ordinary working people throughout America.

DHS proposes changes to H-1B work visas - The Biden administration Monday rolled out a series of proposals to change how work visas are granted and what rights they convey to foreign nationals. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) published the changes “to modernize and improve the efficiency of the H-1B program, add benefits and flexibilities, and improve integrity measures” in the Federal Register. But the proposals are hit-and-miss for many advocates and researchers. “The regulation is a very modest attempt to make the H-1B program work a little bit better than it does now,” said David Bier, associate director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute. In balance, the proposal liberalizes certain aspects of the H-1B, while tightening regulations that lawyers worry could make the application process more difficult. The H-1B is directed toward specialty occupations: engineers, doctors and journalists, for instance, who are foreign nationals with U.S.-based jobs. The visa is often granted to graduates of U.S. universities, and for many it serves as a bridge between college or graduate school in the United States and permanent residency or naturalization. But for many others, the H-1B is a trap. The H-1B in principle is granted for three years and renewable for another three, after which beneficiaries can either move to another status, such as a green card, or leave the country. Green cards, however, are subject to a per-country cap, where no one country can receive more than 7 percent of the annual allocation. That leaves nationals of countries such as India, which is a heavy user of H-1Bs, stuck in decades-long backlogs, renewing their H-1Bs yearly after the two three-year periods end. “The fact going forward is that there aren’t enough green cards, that the cap is going to be filled very quickly for green cards this year, and it’s not going to be just Indians anymore. Everybody’s going to be starting to face increasing wait times,” said Bier. Because current regulations make it risky and difficult to switch employers, workers on green card backlogs are at heightened risk for labor abuses. The new regulation does not address that issue, said Bier, and it adds language that could make it more difficult to obtain the visa in the first place.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson once wrote in support of the criminalization of gay sex -- Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has a history of harsh anti-gay language from his time as an attorney for a socially conservative legal group in the mid-2000s In editorials that ran in his local Shreveport, Louisiana, paper, The Times, Johnson called homosexuality a “inherently unnatural” and “dangerous lifestyle” that would lead to legalized pedophilia and possibly even destroy “the entire democratic system.”And, in another editorial, “Your race, creed, and sex are what you are, while homosexuality and cross-dressing are things you do,” he wrote. “This is a free country, but we don’t give special protections for every person’s bizarre choices.”At the time, Johnson was an attorney and spokesman for Alliance Defense Fund, known today as Alliance Defending Freedom, where he also authored his opposition to the Supreme Court ruling in Lawrence v. Texas – which overturned state laws that criminalized homosexual activity between consenting adults.ADF wrote an amicus brief in the case which supported maintaining criminalization.“States have many legitimate grounds to proscribe same-sex deviate sexual intercourse,” Johnson wrote in a July 2003 op-ed, calling it a public health concern.“By closing these bedroom doors, they have opened a Pandora’s box,” he added.On Thursday, Johnson was asked to respond to KFile’s report on the editorials during a lengthy interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity.“I don’t even remember some of them,” Johnson told Hannity.“I was a litigator that was called upon to defend the state marriage amendments. If you remember back in the early 2000s there was over 35 states somewhere in that number that the people went to the ballot in their respective states and they amended their state constitutions to say marriage is one man, one woman. Well, I was a religious liberty defense lawyer and I was called to go in and defend those cases in the court,” he said.

Sanders to vote ‘no’ on Biden NIH director confirmation --Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), chairman of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP), stated Tuesday that he plans to vote “no” on the confirmation of Monica Bertagnolli, President Biden’s nominee for director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH).Sander’s decision comes just one day before the HELP committee is to consider the nominations of Bertagnolli and other nominees at agencies such as the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.“Dr. Monica Bertagnolli is an intelligent and caring person, but has not convinced me that she is prepared to take on the greed and power of the drug companies and health care industry and fight for the transformative changes the NIH needs at this critical moment,” Sanders said in a statement.“I intend to vote NO at her confirmation hearing on Wednesday. I have not asked any member of the Committee to follow my lead. This should be a vote of conscience.”Sanders had held up a confirmation hearing for Bertagnolli, saying he would oppose the nomination until the Biden administration provided plans for combating high prescription drug costs. He relented in September, saying he would allow a confirmation hearing after receiving a “commitment” from the White House to work on lowering prescription drug costs.

Fetterman ‘can’t believe’ Marshall resolution on school lunch ‘is even real’ - Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) took issue with a new school lunch resolution offered by fellow Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) Tuesday. The resolution, initially introduced in July by a series of senators and placed on the calendar last week, disagrees with recent guidance by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in relation to sex discrimination.“I can’t even believe that this resolution is even real. This makes it possible for some random lunch lady to deny lunch to a hungry child because she says her god tells her to. School lunch should be free, and certainly free of judgment,” Fetterman said in a statement.“Don’t we have better things to do in the upper chamber than picking on kids because of who they are?” Fetterman continued. In his own statement in July after the resolution’s introduction, Marshall said the Biden administration is “weaponizing funding for school lunch programs in an effort to force public schools to embrace Joe Biden’s transgender agenda.”“The USDA has NO authority to force our children to adhere to woke mandates such as requiring biological boys to be given access to girls bathrooms and locker rooms, or allow biological boys to compete against biological girls in girls’ sports,” Marshall said in the statement.

Trump distances himself from Jan. 6 in asking court to toss ‘vindictive’ case -Former President Trump’s legal team is asking a judge to toss his prosecution in his federal election interference case, arguing that it’s a vindictive prosecution that violates his free speech while seeking to distance Trump from the attack on the Capitol. In a series of late Monday motions filed minutes before a midnight deadline, Trump’s attorneys echo many of his oft-repeated lines from the campaign trial, arguing he was simply raising questions about the 2020 election and shouldn’t be held responsible for the storming of the building. “Because the Government has not charged President Trump with responsibility for the actions at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, allegations related to these actions are not relevant and are prejudicial and inflammatory. Therefore, the Court should strike these allegations from the Indictment,” his attorneys wrote in a motion to strike “inflammatory allegations” from Trump’s indictment. Special counsel Jack Smith acknowledged in his four-count indictment that Trump could lawfully challenge his electoral loss, but his office contends that Trump illegally sought to block the transfer of power by relying on fraudulent claims and by illegally conspiring to block the official counting of electoral votes by Congress. Trump’s motions, including those to drop the case, are fairly common moves by defendants facing criminal prosecution and are routinely rejected. Trump already has one pending motion to dismiss the charges arguing he is immune from prosecution given his status as a former president — a challenge the Justice Department decries as turning limited immunity for sitting presidents on its head. Still, many of the motions bring weighty constitutional questions to the case, including the limits of Trump’s First Amendment rights. In that argument, Trump’s legal team rehashes the former president’s baseless claims the election was stolen. “The fact that the indictment alleges that the speech at issue was supposedly, according to the prosecution, ‘false’ makes no difference,” the defense wrote. “Under the First Amendment, each individual American participating in a free marketplace of ideas — not the federal Government — decides for him or herself what is true and false on great disputed social and political questions.”

Cohen testifies Trump ballooned assets as cross-examination scrutinizes his credibility - — Michael Cohen’s long-awaited testimony in the New York attorney general’s sprawling civil fraud case against former President Trump began Tuesday afternoon, when he described ballooning Trump’s assets at the request of his former employer. But the ex-Trump fixer’s proclivity to untruths came under harsh scrutiny by the former president’s legal team, who sought to undermine his credibility in objections and cross-examination. Cohen is a star witness in New York Attorney General Letitia James’s (D) case, testifying to its core allegation: The former president’s company engaged in decades of fraud by falsely inflating and deflating the value of its assets to receive lower taxes and better insurance coverage. Cohen’s past disclosures about Trump’s net worth helped spur her investigation. On Tuesday, the former personal lawyer came publicly face to face with his ex-boss for the first time since their relationship soured. When he first entered the courtroom shortly after noon, Trump did not spare him a glance, keeping his gaze fixed on the computer screen in front of him. Cohen strode past Trump and his legal team without looking their way but peeked over before taking a seat at the witness stand. However, as Cohen’s testimony progressed, Trump’s annoyance became more apparent. The former president forcefully shook his head and conferred actively — though quietly — with his attorneys throughout the questioning, at one point throwing both his hands above his head. Trump’s legal team frequently objected to Cohen’s answers, asserting he was testifying as an expert on issues in which he has no expertise. Cohen testified he and Trump Organization Chief Financial Officer Allen Weisselberg were directed by Trump to increase the former president’s total assets based on a number he “arbitrarily elected.” “My responsibility, along with Allen Weisselberg, predominantly, was to reverse engineer the various different asset classes — increase those assets — in order to achieve the number that Trump had tasked us with,” Cohen said, after which Trump shook his head and appeared to mouth “no” to one of his attorneys. “When you say number, what number are you talking about?” prosecutor Colleen Faherty asked Cohen. “Whichever Mr. Trump told us,” Cohen replied.

Cohen testimony details ‘reverse engineered’ assets at center of Trump’s New York fraud trial: Recap - Michael Cohen, the star witness of New York Attorney General Letitia James’ (D) civil fraud case against former President Trump, testified on the witness stand Tuesday in Manhattan. Cohen testified that he inflated numerous assets owned by Trump and his business. Among those assets were Trump Park Avenue, The Trump World Tower at United Nations Plaza, 100 Central Park South, Mansion at Seven Springs and Miss Universe Pageants. He also testified that he “possibly” inflated the former president’s iconic Trump Tower’s worth and the worth of “other assets.” The way he reached the inflated figures, he said, was by searching other homes in the area on Google and reading articles. Those figures, detailed in Trump's statements of financial condition, were later distributed as factual in business and other interactions. Cohen specifically recalled providing the document to a New York journalist reporting on Trump's net worth and to the Buffalo Bills when Trump was considering purchasing the team. Trump was also back in the courtroom, marking a set up in which the two sworn enemies were publicly face-to-face for the first time since Cohen flipped on his former boss. Trump attorney Alina Habba sharply questioned Cohen on Tuesday over his truthfulness in past and current testimony. She pointed to earlier testimony where Cohen denied being guilty of the crimes of which he has been convicted, accusing him of violating his oath to testify truthfully either then – when he took the plea before a judge – or now. “You committed perjury in that proceeding didn’t you?” Habba asked. “Did you lie to Judge (William) Pauley when you said that you’re guilty?” “Yes,” Cohen replied. Habba later asked Cohen why she should believe that he would not lie to her now if he lied to the judge who oversaw that case in 2018 – a question to which Cohen said he “objected,” earning laughs from the gallery. “Your honor, this witness is completely out of control,” Trump attorney Chris Kise said. “The witness doesn’t just get to sit here and play judge.” The cross-examination of Cohen is expected to start back up Wednesday morning.

Trump: Prosecution’s ‘star’ witness in New York fraud case ‘lied like a dog on the stand’ -- Former President Trump took a victory lap on social media late Wednesday, claiming the prosecution’s case was “dead” after his former fixer Michael Cohen appeared to contradict himself on the stand earlier that day. Trump claimed Cohen, New York Attorney General Letitia James’s “star” witness in the fraud case, “lied like a dog on the stand today, and then admitted I did NOTHING WRONG. … A total SleazeBag.” “The New York State Attorney Generals case against me is DEAD, but the Radical Left Judge REFUSES to end it. He just can’t let it go,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, repeating his frequent attack on the judge in the case. “Letitia James should focus on Violent Crime, which is out of control. So unfair. I don’t even get a Jury Trial. A blight on the New York State Judicial System,” he continued. “Businesses are watching all over the world, and never coming in, only moving out. The Governor should get involved.” He added, “Election Interference by my Political Opponent!” Trump’s post followed a surprising day of testimony in the civil fraud case; Cohen was confronted with his 2019 testimony about the former president and his business practices that appeared to contradict testimony he gave earlier this week. The transcript presented to him was the same testimony that James said inspired the case. In his testimony, Cohen said Trump did not direct him to inflate his net worth. Earlier this week, he said otherwise. “Mr. Trump never directed you to inflate the numbers in his personal statement. Yes or no?” Clifford Robert, an attorney for Trump’s sons, asked Cohen. The question followed a heated exchange, when the former lawyer avoided answering a question directly. “Yes,” Cohen said. He later explained his apparent contradiction by saying Trump’s attorneys were “cherry-picking” words in his testimony.

Ivanka Trump must testify in father’s New York fraud trial, judge rules -- Ivanka Trump, the daughter of former President Trump, must testify in her father’s civil fraud trial in New York, a judge ruled Friday morning. The sweeping fraud case, brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James (D), accuses Trump, the Trump Organization, Trump’s adult sons and several executives of decades of fraud, suggesting they falsely inflated and deflated the value of their assets to receive lower taxes and better insurance coverage. Trump and his sons have denied any wrongdoing, calling the case a “witch hunt.” Ivanka Trump was once a party in the lawsuit, but a New York appeals court in June dismissed her from the case, ruling that the claims against her were barred by the state’s statute of limitations. However, New York Supreme Court Judge Arthur Engoron decided Friday that her dismissal from the case doesn’t absolve her of taking the stand after being subpoenaed by the attorney general’s office. Her testimony won’t be scheduled before Nov. 1, to give her lawyers time to appeal, the trial judge ruled. Trump and his adult sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, are also expected to testify later in the trial, which began earlier this month. The former president briefly took the stand Wednesday to defend comments he made to reporters that the judge ruled were in violation of an established gag order. Ivanka Trump’s lawyers in court documents argued that the New York attorney general’s office does not have the jurisdiction to force the former president’s daughter to testify, suggesting the office is attempting to “force her back into this case” despite her dismissal from it. “Ms. Trump is not a party in this action. Nor is Ms. Trump a New York resident,” they wrote. “It is black-letter law that, given those two facts, Ms. Trump is beyond the jurisdiction of this Court.” Trump’s legal team also claimed in court filings that the attorney general is seeking to “continue to harass and burden President Trump’s daughter long after the First Department mandated she be dismissed from the case.” Engoron rebuffed those arguments in court Friday, suggesting that her ties to New York have hardly been severed. “Ms. Trump has clearly availed herself of the privilege of doing business in New York,” Engoron said Friday, according to The Associated Press.

Prosecutors urge judge to keep Trump gag order in place ahead of election interference trial - Federal prosecutors late Wednesday urged a judge to lift her initial stay of a gag order limiting President Trump’s speech, arguing he threatens to upend their election interference case with remarks likely to inspire harassment of those involved in it. Their brief walks through a series of remarks Trump has made since the gag order was put on ice last Friday, including remarks they say were designed to influence the testimony of his former chief of staff. The timing of the debate over the gag order before Judge Tanya Chutkan is colliding with a civil fraud trial Trump is facing in New York, where a state judge issued his second fine to the former president after he again made comments about a court clerk. “In the few days since the administrative stay has been in place, the defendant has returned to the very sort of targeting that the Order prohibits, including attempting to intimidate and influence foreseeable witnesses, and commenting on the substance of their testimony,” prosecutors wrote. “There has never been a criminal case in which a court has granted a defendant an unfettered right to try his case in the media, malign the presiding judge as a ‘fraud’ and a ‘hack,’ attack the prosecutor as ‘deranged’ and a ‘thug,’ and, after promising witnesses and others, ‘IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU,’ target specific witnesses with attacks on their character and credibility, even suggesting that one witness’s actions warrant the ‘punishment’ of ‘DEATH!’” The order from Chutkan bars Trump from language that would “target” witnesses in the case, as well as prosecutors and court staff — a decision Chutkan said was necessary to prevent a wave of threats and harassment of those involved in the case and protect “the fair administration of justice” in the high-stakes trial. The government’s 32-page response is a window into how prosecutors will fight Trump’s challenge of the order as it heads to appeals court. While Chutkan has temporarily stayed her order pending consideration of the issue in a higher court, prosecutors argue the gag order must remain in place while examination of her order proceeds. The filing also goes beyond defense of a gag order and asks Chutkan to modify Trump’s conditions of release to make explicit that his existing prohibition on communication with witnesses “includes indirect messages to witnesses made publicly on social media or in speeches.”

Meadows granted immunity deal in election interference case: ABC News -- Former Trump White House chief of staff Mark Meadows secured an immunity deal with special counsel Jack Smith in order to testify before a grand jury in the election interference case, ABC News reported. Meadows testified before a grand jury empaneled to hear evidence in the case on at least three separate occasions, the outlet reported, doing so after being granted immunity. The Hill has reached out to Meadows’s attorney for comment. Meadows reportedly told the grand jury that after former President Trump’s election loss, he repeatedly told the him that his claims of widespread fraud were baseless. That testimony would counter a claim Trump has repeated since losing the election — and that his lawyers defended as recently as Monday night. Meadows also told investigators that Trump was being “dishonest” with voters when he proclaimed victory on election night. That aligns with the testimony of Trump campaign staff who told the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack that they cautioned the former president against claiming he had won. The news of Meadows’s cooperation comes after he was not included in the federal criminal indictment charging Trump with four counts for his conduct in seeking to block the transfer of power that culminated in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

Jenna Ellis pleads guilty in Georgia election interference case - Jenna Ellis reached a plea agreement with prosecutors in the Georgia 2020 election interference case Tuesday, becoming the third former Trump campaign attorney to do so. Ellis, who once described herself as part of an “elite strike force team” of attorneys pursuing unfounded claims of election fraud, pleaded guilty to one count of aiding and abetting false statements and writings. “If I knew then what I know now, I would have declined to represent Donald Trump in these post-election challenges,” a tearful Ellis told the judge. Like the others who took plea deals, Ellis agreed to testify truthfully against her co-defendants, including Trump. She was sentenced to five years of probation, 100 hours of community service and ordered to pay $5,000 in restitution and write a letter of apology to Georgia citizens. “How do you plead to aiding and abetting false statements and writings,” Fulton County prosecutor Daysha Young asked. “Guilty,” Ellis responded. Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) charged Ellis, the former president and 17 others in August in a sprawling racketeering indictment that accused all of them of entering an unlawful conspiracy to keep Trump in power following the 2020 election. Since the indictment, four of the 19 co-defendants have taken plea deals with prosecutors. Scott Hall, a former bail bondsman, was the first to do so last month. In recent days, three Trump attorneys have now followed suit and agreed to testify against the former president. Sidney Powell and Kenneth Chesebro took plea deals late last week, and Ellis joined them Tuesday. Legal experts suggest their agreements to testify could raise the other defendants’ legal jeopardy or also induce them to take a deal.

Trump’s mounting legal troubles intensify with rough week in court - Former President Trump endured a series of legal setbacks in recent days, underscoring the mounting risks he faces as his various legal cases intensify. Trump took the stand in New York this week, sworn in as a witness for unexpected testimony in his financial fraud case to respond to allegations he violated a gag order by making a comment about the judge’s clerk while complaining about the ongoing trial. In Georgia, Trump’s former attorney Jenna Ellis pleaded guilty in a case revolving around efforts to overturn the election. She’s the fourth of Trump’s co-defendants in the sprawling racketeering and election case to do so. And in the federal case that Trump sought to overturn the election, reporting this week indicates Trump’s former chief of staff Mark Meadows was granted immunity to testify before grand jurors, a sign of the wealth of evidence prosecutors may have gathered in the case. Together, the developments showcase the mounting pressure on Trump as he faces five cases probing his business dealings, post-2020 efforts to stay in power and his mishandling of classified records. “Between the Meadows news and Jenna Ellis striking a plea deal, it definitely was a bad day for Trump but a good day for democracy,” said Sarah Matthews, a former Trump aide who testified at a hearing for the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 riots, in an interview. In a sign of the legal pileup Trump is facing, he addressed reporters at the Manhattan courthouse where his fraud trial is taking place multiple times during the week to speak about developments in other cases and the reports Meadows agreed to cooperate. “I’ve spoken to Mark Meadows many, many times over the years. And he strongly believed the election was rigged,” Trump said pushing back on reports Meadows told investigators he told the then-president he had lost the 2020 election. The news appeared to alarm Trump, who turned to social media to muse that surely Meadows would not have done such a thing — even as he expressed some doubt. “Some people would make that deal, but they are weaklings and cowards, and so bad for the future [of] our Failing Nation,” Trump wrote. “I don’t think that Mark Meadows is one of them, but who really knows?” In another bad turn for Trump, a judge in New York ruled Friday that Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, will have to testify about her father’s business dealings. While Ivanka Trump could still appeal the decision, it would be yet another loss for the former president in the case as his attorneys challenged efforts to secure her testimony. It hasn’t been all bad news for Trump in recent weeks. One bright spot for the former president was in Florida, where a federal judge allowed his two co-defendants in the Mar-a-Lago classified records case to remain represented by attorneys paid for by Trump despite conflict of interest concerns raised by the government. And in Washington, there was a flurry of activity in his federal election interference case this week as Trump’s team filed a series of pretrial motions designed to stymy the case, including a long-shot bid to have the charges dismissed. But a battle over the gag order issued in the election interference case — which barred Trump from speech that would “target” witnesses and special counsel Jack Smith’s team — showed the interconnectedness of the former president’s many legal battles and the extent his remarks will come under the microscope of a series of judges. The Justice Department this week zeroed in on Trump’s conduct in the New York case, noting his difficulties in complying with the gag order in New York were all the more reason to keep the one in his federal election interference case in place.

Elon Musk offers $1B to Wikipedia if it changes its name -- Billionaire Elon Musk offered Wikipedia, the free online encyclopedia, $1 billion under the condition that it changes its name to “Dickipedia.”The owner of X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, wrote his offer in a post on his site. He had previously posted a screenshot of a personal appeal from Wikipedia co-founder Jimmy Wales stating that the website is “not for sale.”“I will give them a billion dollars if they change their name to Dickipedia,” Musk wrote.“Please add that to the [cow and poop emojis] on my wiki page,” he continued in another post. “In the interests of accuracy.”When one user, journalist Ed Krassenstein, suggested the online encyclopedia take the deal, saying that it can “can always change it back after you collect,” Musk added a condition to his offer.“One year minimum. I mean, I’m a not fool lol,” he wrote.Musk had made multiple posts earlier Sunday criticizing the Wikimedia Foundation, the nonprofit that hosts Wikipedia, for asking for money. “Have you ever wondered why the Wikimedia Foundation wants so much money? It certainly isn’t needed to operate Wikipedia,” he wrote on X. “You can literally fit a copy of the entire text on your phone! So, what’s the money for? Inquiring minds want to know …”The app’s “Community Notes,” which allows users to sign up to become contributors and create notes on posts for context, left an explanation under his post initially stating that Wikipedia handles “over 25B page views per month and over 44M page edits a month, requiring substantial operating costs.”

As banks face Congressional subpoenas, a House Democrat objects - Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., ranking member of the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability, said he is concerned over the use of subpoenas on banks in investigations into Hunter Biden, and wrote to the chairman of that panel. The subpoenas represent a new chapter in the ongoing dilemma that banks face, caught between obligations to protect data privacy and those banks' larger desire to eschew political debates. Earlier in October, Rep. James Comer, R-Ky., issued multiple subpoenas to unnamed financial institutions for a large number of records concerning Hunter Biden and his associates, as well as other members of the President's family. Among the complaints in his letter, obtained by American Banker, Raskin said that the subpoenas go too far into private citizens' financial records. This is an area of concern for banks as they become increasingly enmeshed in political debates, given the vast repository of financial data they hold about individual customers, and the potential that data has to be used against those people to political ends. "These subpoenas seek a decade's worth of personal financial information of private citizens and are completely untethered to any plausible theory of an impeachable offense," Raskin wrote. "Your decision to issue a blanket demand for 'all financial records' from 2014 to the present, without any effort to define or tailor the request, makes obvious that these subpoenas are nothing but a fishing expedition many miles away from the legislative shore and thus an egregious abuse of this Committee's authority." A similar issue bubbled up recently in an August conflict between House Republicans and law enforcement, over banks sharing some data with law enforcement during investigations into the January 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. The House Judiciary Committee, at the time, subpoenaed Citi for documents related to House Republicans' belief that major banks illegally shared private financial data with the Federal Bureau of Investigation related to the Jan. 6 insurrection.

Treasury enlists banks to root out Hamas financing Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network urged financial institutions Friday to vigilantly monitor and report activity suspected of being related to financing the militant organization currently at war with Israel known as Hamas. "Hamas raises funds to support its operations and members in a variety of ways, including … fundraising campaigns involving virtual currency and fictitious charities raising both fiat and virtual currency," Fincen's alert noted. "Hamas moves funds through the smuggling of physical currency as well as a regional network of complicit money transmitters, exchange houses, and Hezbollah-affiliated banks." Hamas is an Islamist political and military organization which has governed the Gaza Strip of the Palestinian territory since it came to power after elections in 2007. It has been designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. government — and thereby subject to sanctions by the Treasury Department — since Oct. 8, 1997. Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing an estimated 1,400 people. Hamas reportedly raised millions in funding through cryptocurrency transactions in the years leading up to the attack. Fincen's alert identified several red flags it says banks should watch which could indicate suspicious activity. These include watching for customers that conduct transactions with entities designated by the Office of Foreign Assets Control or transactions linked to designated groups' or individuals' contact information or virtual currency addresses. Fincen also told banks to be wary of customers that interact with higher-risk financial institutions in high-risk jurisdictions with inadequate anti-money-laundering practices and customers that do business with shell corporations or entities tied to Iran-backed militant groups, including Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Fincen also advised firms to be on the lookout for questionable conduct by charitable or nonprofit organizations that solicit donations without providing services or overtly support Hamas, large and sudden donations from unknown sources followed by substantial transfers and transactions involving "virtual currency addresses associated with terrorism or terrorist financing campaigns." The agency also noted that while these red flags should be used as guidelines to help detect and report potential illicit funding, banks should take a holistic approach to considering risks posed by customers. "As no single red flag is determinative of illicit or suspicious activity, financial institutions should consider the totality of available facts and circumstances, such as a customer's historical financial activity, whether the transactions are in line with prevailing business practices, and whether the customer exhibits multiple red flags, before determining that a behavior or transaction is suspicious," Fincen's alert noted.

Fed terminates enforcement action against Citigroup for FX scandal -The Federal Reserve Board of Governors ended an eight-year-old cease-and-desist order against Citigroup on Thursday.The order stems from Citibank's involvement in a multiyear scheme in which spot market traders on its foreign exchange, or FX, desk colluded with their counterparts at other banks to game currency markets.The Fed's enforcement action — which included enhanced oversight and reporting requirements along with a $342 million civil penalty — was imposed on May 20, 2015. That same day, Citi joined four other major banks in pleading guilty to felony counts of conspiring tomanipulate dollar and euro prices.In its order, the Fed cited insufficient oversight and controls at the New York-based megabank for identifying and mitigating risks on its FX trading desk. From 2007 to 2013, FX traders at Citi worked secretly with traders at JPMorgan Chase, Barclays and The Royal Bank of Scotland, according to the U.S. Department of Justice. Traders at the banks used an electronic chat room and coded language to alter benchmark exchange rates between dollars and euros for their own benefit. The Swiss bank UBS also pleaded guilty for separate but related charges. Bank of America and HSBC were also penalized by U.S. regulators for FX trading issues and faced separate criminal charges around the same time. The investigations into the banks and their subsequent penalties came at a time of increased regulatory scrutiny toward currency trading businesses in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis and ensuing global financial distress. According to their guilty pleas, Citi, JPMorgan, Barclays and RBS worked with one another to, at times, bump up benchmark exchange rates just ahead of daily rate fixes being set in Europe and the U.S. to maximize profits. They would also withhold transactions to depress prices at times that were advantageous to their co-conspirators.

Citi used generative AI to read 1,089 pages of new capital rules - Citigroup is planning to grant the majority of its over 40,000 coders access to generative artificial intelligence as Wall Street continues to embrace the burgeoning technology. As part of a small pilot program, the Wall Street giant has quietly allowed about 250 of its developers to experiment with generative AI, the technology popularized by ChatGPT. Now, it's planning to expand that program to the majority of its coders next year. The bank and its rivals have slowly begun experimenting with the technology, which created waves last year when ChatGPT made its debut and showed how generative AI can produce sentences, essays or poetry based on a user's simple questions or commands. The technology typically creates this new work after being trained on vast quantities of pre-existing material. Increasingly, bank executives argue artificial intelligence will make their staffers more efficient. Like when federal regulators dropped 1,089 pages of new capital rules on the U.S. banking sector, Citigroup combed through the document word by word using generative AI. The bank's risk and compliance team used the technology to assess the impact of the plans, which will determine how much capital the lender has to set aside to guard against future losses. Generative AI organized the proposal into pieces and composed key takeaways, which the team then presented to the outgoing treasurer Mike Verdeschi. At Citigroup, the advent of ChatGPT sparked a concerted push to use artificial intelligence. In response, earlier this year the bank formed two task forces to explore potential uses for the technology, according to Stuart Riley, the bank's co-chief information officer who is overseeing the effort. "This is across every part of the bank," Riley said in an interview. "Some of them are small, helping with daily routine, and others are complex bodies of work." Bank staffers have been increasingly worried that the technology might replace them. That's not so, according to Riley. Whether AI or employees generate a line of code, it will still need human oversight, he said.

When AI suspects money laundering, banks struggle to explain why In recent years, regulators have warmed to the idea of banks using artificial intelligence to comply with anti-money-laundering laws and related regulations for countering the financing of terrorism and preventing other financial crimes. Increasingly, banks have also used this same transaction monitoring technology to protect themselves from fraud. Using AI to monitor transactions for financial crimes comes with one main challenge, though. Regulators expect banks to interpret their models and explain each report of suspicious activity they flag, but many artificial intelligence models are black boxes. How can a bank explain to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network how it determines which transactions are suspicious when the AI can't explain itself? The answer and regulators' expectations are muddy, but, in general, banks need to keep records of how they train their transaction monitoring AI and their process for adjusting any thresholds they use for flagging transactions, also known as maintaining an interpretable model. Banks and regulators are still debating what constitutes satisfactory documentation and reproducibility in their transaction monitoring systems, and while regulators have lower expectations of their fraud detection systems, legitimate customers who get their accounts closed over potential fraud do demand answers. Banks are responsible for providing "complete explainability and traceability" to regulators, according to Ashvin Parmar, global head of insights and data for financial services at consulting firm Capgemini. In the past, they accomplished this with rules-based systems for flagging transactions as fraudulent. "This approach was intuitive and left clear logs indicating which rules were triggered in the decision-making process," Parmar said. "However, when dealing with a large number of policy rules, into the hundreds, several challenges emerged." One such challenge is managing and updating a high volume of rules, which is a cumbersome and time-consuming process. This hinders banks' ability to adapt to evolving fraud patterns and regulations. The other challenge is high rates of false positives — erroneously flagging legitimate transactions as suspicious.

Fallen crypto king Sam Bankman-Fried was 'perfectly positioned to make a religion of himself' -- A year ago, Sam Bankman-Fried (often called “SBF”) was on top of the world. He had been on the covers of Forbes, which dubbed him “the richest twentysomething in the world”, and Fortune – the equivalent, for a business leader, of a rock star on Rolling Stone, or an athlete on Sports Illustrated. He was featured in the prestigious “lunch with the FT” in the Financial Times. He was seen as the responsible face of cryptocurrency. There was even speculation he could become the first trillionaire.But in late 2022, his FTX crypto trading operation – and the closely related Alameda Research, an investment fund he had founded before FTX – both collapsed.Bankman-Fried is currently charged with crimes relating to the disappearance of billions of dollars of FTX users’ money. These people did not think they were investing in FTX, or even lending to it. Their funds were just being kept there while they switched between, for example, dollars and bitcoins or between bitcoins and dogecoins. But instead it is claimed that their funds were transferred to Alameda and then lost.Bankman-Fried is pleading not guilty and has published a statement reading: “I didn’t steal funds, and I certainly didn’t stash billions away.”Bankman-Fried, who was living in the Bahamas at the time of his arrest, now resides in a US prison. He is facing charges that could result in a sentence of more than a century behind bars and has been taunted as “Scam Bankrupt-Fraud”.His remarkable story has been told by Michael Lewis, the author of Liar’s Poker, a Wall Street story drawing on his own experience as a bond salesman for Salomon Brothers; and the internationally successful book-then-film The Big Short, an account of the financial market shenanigans that led to the global financial crisis of 2007-09.Lewis, who had extraordinary access to Bankman-Fried while writing, holds the unusual combination of degrees in art history from Princeton and economics from the London School of Economics. As a former bond salesman, he knows his way around financial markets and has seen his share of excess and oversized egos. As a journalist, he is skilled at clear writing about complex finance. He was ideally placed to write this book.However, he has been widely criticised as too close to his subject. When Bankman-Fried was arrested, Lewis had been shadowing him for nearly a year. And as events unfolded – and even while Bankman-Fried was under house arrest – Lewis was there, taking notes.Lewis describes himself as having been “totally sold” after his first meeting with Bankman-Fried. And he has called his book “a letter to the jury”. But he rejects criticism of his objectivity as “crazy”.

Sam Bankman-Fried stumbles through cross-examination—and he wasn’t even in front of the jury - As Sam Bankman-Fried took the stand on Thursday, a crowded gallery of onlookers saw firsthand why defendants typically do not testify at their own criminal trials, with prosecutors eviscerating the disgraced crypto founder during an hours-long cross-examination without jurors present. Bankman-Fried’s lawyers first indicated at a teleconference call on Wednesday that their client would testify in his own defense, introducing a lengthy court filing late that night laying out the themes they planned to tackle. With the trial resuming on Thursday morning after a brief recess, the prosecution called one last witness—an FBI agent—before resting its case. Judge Lewis Kaplan, who’s overseeing the case, said he wasn’t convinced that the proposed topics for Bankman-Fried’s testimony had sufficient cause to be argued in front of the jury. Instead, Kaplan held an unusual dry-run hearing, hearing the direct and cross-examinations after sending the 12-person jury home for the day. Defense attorney Mark Cohen proceeded with his direct examination, calling a noticeably gaunt Bankman-Fried to the stand. After three weeks of testimony that saw his closest friends testify that they had stolen customer funds from FTX at his direction, Bankman-Fried finally had the opportunity to tell his version of events. His lawyers focused on four areas that Kaplan was skeptical should be argued in front of a jury: auto-deletion policies by members of the FTX inner circle on the messaging platform Signal; Bankman-Fried’s so-called advice-of-counsel defense; the safeguarding of customer assets in omnibus wallets; and a fateful set of meetings with the Bahamas’ financial regulator. Bankman-Fried held up under the guiding questions of his own lawyers, answering confidently that he operated his crypto empire in good faith under the advice of attorneys such as chief regulatory officer Dan Friedberg. As his current attorneys have telegraphed through a series of court filings, Bankman-Fried was pinning the blame on previous FTX lawyers. Bankman-Fried argued that everything from FTX’s terms of service to its unorthodox—and potentially illegal—labyrinth of bank accounts was orchestrated by previous counsel, providing cover for his decision to use customer assets for his own purposes. After a smooth direct examination, Bankman-Fried’s father, Joe Bankman, walked over to give him a grin and a thumbs-up. The downside of Bankman-Fried’s taking-the-stand gambit quickly became apparent: Assistant U.S. Attorney Danielle Sassoon drilled into his decision to lay the blame at the feet of previous attorneys, asking him a series of probing questions about whether he had specific conversations with Friedberg or FTX general counsel Can Sun about stealing customer assets. Bankman-Fried answered in his signature format—a series of misdirections, “yups,” and stammers that previous interviewers have described as a “word salad” approach. While it may have worked in the past on unsuspecting reporters, Sassoon and Kaplan were unamused. At one point, Kaplan instructed Bankman-Fried to be more clear, noting that he had an “interesting way of answering questions.” Sassoon seemed to pull loose every thread of the defense’s arguments, even noting that Bankman-Fried’s approach to auto-deleting Signal messages seemed inconsistent with a document retention policy that the defense couldn’t even produce. In one tense moment, Sassoon pulled up a payment agreement between FTX and its trading firm, Alameda Research, and asked Bankman-Fried to find the section that he interpreted as allowing him to use FTX customer deposits for his own purposes. After a long pause, Bankman-Fried admitted that he had not done a “careful read” of the document “contemporaneously.” Even without the jury present, Sassoon did not hold back. Near the end of her questioning, she asked how Bankman-Fried would define safeguarding customer assets. “Would that include not embezzling customer assets?” she asked. Kaplan quickly sustained the defense’s objection, but the point was made to a room packed with journalists, O.C. star Ben McKenzie, and FTX chronicler Michael Lewis, who was sitting in Bankman-Fried’s friends and family section. After the cross-examination ended, Kaplan expressed further skepticism that Bankman-Fried could claim he was following his lawyers’ advice, observing that a bank robber could not use illegal funds to buy an apartment, even if he had an attorney’s unwitting sign-off.

Sam Bankman-Fried Testifies That He Made ‘Larger Mistakes’ at FTX - From the moment his cryptocurrency empire collapsed in November, Sam Bankman-Fried didn’t stop talking.Against the advice of his defense lawyers, Mr. Bankman-Fried embarked on a lengthy press tour to explain the failure of his FTX cryptocurrency exchange, giving interviews to TV anchors and obscure Twitter personalities. After he was charged with fraud and placed under house arrest, he invited reporters to visit him so he could continue defending his actions.On Friday, Mr. Bankman-Fried, 31, made an even riskier call: He took the stand to testify at his criminal fraud trial in federal court in New York.Over five and a half hours of testimony, Mr. Bankman-Fried denied that he had committed fraud or stolen from FTX’s customers, while emphasizing his efforts to make the exchange successful. But he also acknowledged that he had made mistakes, citing “significant oversights” that hurt FTX’s customers. Mr. Bankman-Fried said he had “made a number of small mistakes, and a number of larger mistakes.” FTX was supposed to “move the ecosystem forward,” he testified. “It turned out the opposite of that.” Mr. Bankman-Fried’s testimony was the most anticipated moment of a trial that has become a referendum on the excesses of theonce-highflying crypto industry. The entrepreneur, who positioned himself as the face of the industry when the prices of digital coins like Bitcoin and Ether were surging, emerged last year as a cautionary tale of the unfettered hubris and risk-taking that cost customers billions of dollars when the crypto market crashed. His decision to testify was an enormous risk. But after weeks of damaging testimony from his closest friends and colleagues, Mr. Bankman-Fried was left with little choice but to make a long-shot attempt to change the course of the trial. He was the defense’s third and final witness, and he took the stand after anunusual hearing on Thursday delayed his testimony by a day.Mr. Bankman-Fried was arrested in December and charged with orchestrating a yearslong scheme to misappropriate as much as $10 billion from customers who had deposited their savings in FTX. Prosecutors accused him of funneling the money into venture capital investments, political contributions and extravagant real estate purchases. They also said he used the funds to prop up a crypto trading firm he founded, Alameda Research. Mr. Bankman-Fried, who has pleaded not guilty, could receive what would amount to a life sentence if a jury convicts him on seven counts of fraud, conspiracy and money laundering. Mr. Bankman-Fried’s defense faces significant hurdles, after a procession of former FTX and Alameda employees testified that he had lied to the public and stolen money from FTX’s customers for years. On cross-examination, his lead lawyers, Mark Cohen and Christian Everdell, struggled to poke holes in the witnesses’ testimony, stymied by objections from the prosecutors. But Mr. Bankman-Fried’s decision to testify gave the defense an opportunity to tell its side of the story. When he took the stand on Friday morning, the FTX founder showed little emotion as he defended his decisions in front of a packed courtroom. Court officials set up a line of folding chairs in the gallery to accommodate a group of visiting students. Mr. Bankman-Fried’s parents, the Stanford law professors Joe Bankman and Barbara Fried, also watched from the pews, scribbling notes on a legal pad. The author Michael Lewis, who recently published a book about the FTX founder, sat a couple of rows behind them.Mr. Bankman-Fried began his testimony with a mea culpa, acknowledging that FTX’s collapse had hurt people throughout the crypto industry. All he had wanted to do, he said, was “build the best product on the market.”Under questioning from Mr. Cohen, Mr. Bankman-Fried walked the jury through his biography, from his upbringing in Palo Alto, Calif., to his undergraduate education at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In college, he said, he belonged to an unusual kind of fraternity that was “coed, nerdy and dry,” before graduating into a job at the Wall Street trading firm Jane Street.

Bankman-Fried blames others, defends spending and draws judge’s ire - The Washington Post— FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s first official day of testimony in his criminal trial saw the former crypto mogul irritate the judge, rationalize spending on political campaigns and Super Bowl ads, and deflect blame for the loss of billions of dollars from the balance sheet of trading firm Alameda Research. The first three hours of his testimony Friday covered familiar territory — his upbringing, his college years and early success — as his lawyers worked to bolster a narrative Bankman-Fried has promoted since the November collapse of the FTX crypto exchange and Alameda: Mistakes were made, but he always acted in good faith. During the morning session, he gave long, rambling answers to the questions posed by defense attorney Mark Cohen. On multiple occasions, U.S. District Judge Lewis A. Kaplan asked him to stop talking. At other times, Kaplan rephrased Cohen’s questions to elicit more direct answers from Bankman-Fried. At one point, Kaplan admonished Bankman-Fried for trying to provide his own definition of market manipulation. “You will take what I say manipulation means,” the judge told him and the jury. Bankman-Fried is the only witness being called by the defense team. His testimony is scheduled to run through midday Monday, followed by prosecutors’ cross-examination through Tuesday, and then closing statements from the lawyers. If everything goes as planned, jury deliberations will start before the end of the week. The defendant has pleaded not guilty to seven criminal counts, including fraud and money laundering related to the use of customer funds from FTX. Bankman-Fried, 31, could spend decades in prison if convicted. After a lunch break, Bankman-Fried’s defense team turned to questions about FTX’s marketing expenditures, including naming rights for the Miami Heat’s arena and endorsements from celebrities such as star athletes Tom Brady and Stephen Curry. Bankman-Fried said the name recognition from those partnerships justified the cost, particularly for stadiums in cities with a certain level of cachet such as Miami. “I didn’t want to be known as the Kansas City Royals of crypto exchanges,” he said. He also characterized political donations as a justifiable expense. The primary goal, Bankman-Fried said Friday, was to help shape a regulatory framework for crypto trading that would allow FTX U.S., the exchange’s American arm, to eventually offer futures trading.

Persistent inflation, CRE register as top financial stability concerns -Persistent inflation and potential commercial real estate losses are the top financial stability concerns among banks.The Federal Reserve Board released its semiannual financial stability report on Friday. While the review concluded that the banking system is on sound footing overall, it noted that elevated asset valuations, pockets of higher leverage and funding issues at some banks represent potential vulnerabilities.The report included a survey of professionals at broker-dealers, investment funds, research and advisory firms, and academics on the top issues facing the financial system. The top two concerns were persistent inflation and monetary tightening, and commercial real estate, or CRE, each of which was flagged by 72% of respondents, up from 56% and 52%, respectively, in the Fed's prior stability report.Respondents fear that, despite recent positive developments on curbing inflation, price growth might accelerate again in the near term, potentially resulting in "further monetary policy tightening and volatile market conditions." Some worry that inflation expectations could become "entrenched," necessitating an aggressive response from the Fed that tips the economy into a recession. The report also details elevated concerns about CRE related to higher interest rates, falling property values and a long-term weakening in the demand for office space resulting from the widespread adoption of remote and hybrid work. The report points to small and regional banks as being the biggest point of vulnerability on this front, given their outsized holdings of CRE loans. It adds that recent surveys of senior loan officers show weaker demand and tighter lending standards for issuing new CRE loans.Despite deteriorating fundamentals in certain types of commercial property — especially office buildings — the report said valuations on these assets remain elevated, indicating that already-distressed assets may have farther to fall. Similarly, the report pointed to a recent uptick in home prices as part of a broader trend of asset value inflation. It noted the growing spread between owner's equivalent rent — the approximate price an owned home would rent for — and actual market rents as a sign that housing market valuations were "increasingly stretched."Overall banking sector stress was the third most cited concern by respondents, at 56%, the same rate reported in May.

Fed’s Financial Stability Report Says $20.3 Trillion Is Subject to a Run - By Pam and Russ Martens --Last Friday, the Federal Reserve published its Financial Stability Report, which takes a detailed look at U.S. financial stability through the second quarter of this year. Although the Fed does its best to put a rosy glow on the outlook, it’s not a pretty picture.We found the most disturbing sentence in the report to be the following:“Overall, estimated runnable money-like financial liabilities increased 3.4 percent to $20.3 trillion (75 percent of nominal GDP) over the past year.”Given that a handful of banks this past spring, with combined liabilities of less than $1 trillion, caused a full blown banking panic and bank runs, the Fed’s figure of $20.3 trillion of “runnable” money is not a comforting thought. The Fed elaborates as follows:“The banking industry maintained a high level of liquidity overall, but some banks continued to face funding pressures; meanwhile, structural vulnerabilities persisted in other sectors engaged in liquidity transformation.“The banking industry overall maintained a high level of liquidity since the May report. Funding risks for most banks remained low, and large banks that are subject to the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) continued to maintain ample levels of HQLA [High Quality Liquid Assets] given the risk of their funding structures. That said, banks that came under stress and experienced large deposit outflows in March continued to face funding pressure. Since March, volatility has abated and deposit outflows have largely stabilized—owing, in part, to actions by the Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation—but these banks nonetheless continued to face challenges navigating changes in depositor behavior, higher funding costs, and reduced market values for investment securities.“Prime MMFs [Money Market Funds] and other cash-investment vehicles remained vulnerable to runs and, hence, contributed to the fragility of short-term funding markets. In addition, some cash-management vehicles, including retail prime MMFs, government MMFs, and short-term investment funds, maintained stable net asset values (NAVs) that make them susceptible to sharp increases in interest rates. The market capitalization of the stablecoin sector continued to decline, but the sector remained vulnerable to liquidity risks like those present in other vehicles that attempt to substitute for cash. Some open-end bond mutual funds continued to be susceptible to large redemptions because they must allow shareholders to redeem every day even though the funds hold assets that can face losses and become illiquid amid stress. Life insurers continued to face liquidity risk owing to heavy reliance on nontraditional liabilities in combination with an increasing share of illiquid and risky assets on their balance sheets.” The mention of life insurers with “nontraditional liabilities” and “illiquid and risky assets on their balance sheets” is a particularly sensitive subject for the Fed, which is supposed to be supervising the global systemically important banks (GSIBs) to make sure they don’t spread their contagion through the U.S. financial system in a replay of 2008. American International Group (AIG), one of the largest life insurers in the world, received a taxpayer backstop of $185 billion but the bailout of AIG was in reality a backdoor bailout of the global banks on Wall Street who had used AIG as a counterparty on their casino-like Credit Default Swaps and for securities loans – neither of which AIG could make good on. The chart of these payments shows that the largest beneficiaries of the AIG bailout were as follows: Goldman Sachs received $12.9 billion; the French global bank, Societe Generale, received $11.9 billion; Merrill Lynch and its U.S. banking parent, Bank of America, received a combined $11.5 billion; the British bank, Barclays, received $8.5 billion; and Citigroup, which was secretly receiving $2.5 trillion in cumulative loans from the Fed between December 2007 to July 2010, got another backdoor bailout of $2.3 billion from the rescue of AIG. Since 2008, the Fed’s approach to both supervision of the mega banks and financial stability is to have no restraints on the amount of money it can create electronically to bail out the bad boys on Wall Street in an effort to cover up its own incompetence as a bank supervisor. (See Related Articles below.) That’s not a sustainable plan for a stable financial system for the United States of America.

Amid speakership drama, Rep. Barr hints at Fed divisions on Basel — As the House continues its long, contentious contest over who will serve as its next speaker, one senior member of the House Financial Services Committee previewed oversight of the Federal Reserve's Basel III endgame proposal. Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., said that House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry will return to the panel after his stint as speaker pro tempore. He declined to comment on what McHenry's ascension to House leadership means for the future of the committee. "He's a bit busy as the speaker pro tem, but he's excited to get back to his day job," Barr said at comments delivered at the Bank Policy Institute on Wednesday. At the time, Rep. Mike Johnson, R-La., was gearing up for a speakership vote on the House floor. The contention over House leadership has derailed the schedule of the House Financial Services Committee, with at least several hearings postponed from Tuesday that would have continued to build Republicans' case challenging the regulations proposed by the Biden administration's financial regulators. Barr said that the committee will focus on continuing to challenge the Federal Reserve's Basel III endgame proposal. He said that the Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr is bypassing the intent of Congress, which directed the Fed to tailor regulation by bank size. Specifically, Rep. Barr said that he's concerned about the proposal's impact on regional banks. "De facto, this is a rollback of a congressional directive to tailor regulation," he said. "I don't think we need a one-size-fits-all approach to bank regulation. I don't think the risk profile of regional banks, small regional banks is the same as the largest G-SIBs in our system." Barr referenced the Administrative Procedures Act, an avenue that Republicans could take to officially challenge the rulemaking should the Fed not make substantive changes to their proposal.

U.S. Bancorp sheds assets to avoid stricter regs, insists it can still grow The Federal Reserve informed the Minneapolis banking giant this week that it will no longer be required to meet liquidity and other federal requirements for so-called Category II banks by the end of 2024, according to the company. "The Fed decision is really going to give us more time and flexibility going forward," U.S. Bancorp Chief Financial Officer John Stern said in an interview Wednesday.The company's purchase of MUFG Union Bank in late 2022 put U.S. Bancorp on track to meet a series of beefed-up liquidity, stress-test and capital rules applied to financial institutions with at least $700 billion of assets. But the $668 billion-asset U.S. Bancorp made a number of changes to its balance sheet in recent months to avert the enhanced requirements. U.S. Bancorp sold about $30 billion of investment securities, according to the Fed. The company has also gotten rid of mortgages issued to noncore customers in recent months, Stern said. U.S. Bancorp said it plans to keep a close eye on total assets and strengthen its capital position over the next year to make sure it remains subject to requirements for banks in its current class, Category III. Banks are required by their regulators to maintain a certain level of assets that can swiftly be converted into cash in the case of unexpected financial obligations, including hefty deposit requests. A bank's total assets help determine which liquidity requirements it must meet.Total assets at the country's seventh-largest banking company fell nearly 2% on a linked-quarter basis to $668 billion at Sept. 30. They were $681 billion in the second quarter and $682 billion in the first quarter. Before U.S. Bancorp began selling assets this year, its acquisition of Union Bank boosted total assets from $601 billion in the third quarter of 2022 to $675 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022.But the effort to keep total assets below $700 billion in the short-term doesn't mean U.S. Bancorp can't add assets if it wants, executives said.

Court puts CFPB small-business data collection rule on hold nationwide | A rule that would require banks and credit unions to report specific data about small-business loan applicants has been put on hold nationwide.A federal court has extended an injunction on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's small-business lending data rule to apply nationwide pending the outcome of a Supreme Court case challenging the constitutionality of the bureau's funding structure.The ruling Wednesday by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Texas comes three months after a judge granted a limited preliminary injunction to members of two trade groups and a private bank that had sued the CFPB to keep the rule from going into effect.Earlier this month, the full Senate voted 53-44 in favor of a resolution to repeal the rule under the Congressional Review Act. However, the bill would require the president's signature to pass and President Biden has said he will not sign the bill. Trade groups claimed the rule is burdensome, would significantly increase borrowing costs and potentially restrict credit to small businesses that the rule was purportedly designed to help. "The U.S. District Court has rightfully expanded its temporary injunctive relief from the CFPB's Section 1071 final rule to all community banks across the country," said Rebeca Romero Rainey, president and CEO of the Independent Community Bankers of America.

How data sharing could change under CFPB's proposed new rules -U.S. banks have shared their customers' account data with fintechs, an activity some call "open banking," for more than a decade. But they haven't always done it knowingly or willingly, and it's been a source of tension among banks, data aggregators and fintechs. Could the data-sharing rules the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau proposed last week make a difference? The CFPB's proposed data-sharing rules under Section 1033 of the Consumer Financial Protection Act of 2010 say banks must share transaction data for deposit and card accounts with fintechs at customers' request, including transaction amount, date, payment type, pending or authorized status, payee or merchant name, rewards credits, fees or finance charges and account balance. Banks would have to provide at least 24 months of historical transaction data and information about upcoming payments. They also would have to provide interfaces developers can use to create pipelines that receive this data. The proposal would limit the data that data aggregators like Plaid, Envestnet Yodlee, Finicity and MX gather and retain to only what's reasonably necessary to provide the consumer's requested product or service. They would not be able to sell that data to hedge funds, other Wall Street firms or anyone else, nor use it for targeted advertising or to cross-sell products. "My read of the rule is that it very clearly says that the consumer gets to decide who they authorize to access the data," said Amias Gerety, partner at QED Investors and a former Treasury official. "It codifies access in a specific way that gives the consumer control." The proposal would bring a lot more scrutiny of what data is being exchanged and how quickly consumers can revoke access to data, said Ameya Talwalkar, CEO of the application programming interface security company Cequence. The proposal also would give consumers some control and protection over their data once it moves from a bank to a data aggregator or fintech. For instance, consumers would need to reauthorize this data access every year. For fintechs, the proposal should make data access easier and more stable, Gerety said. Today, generally speaking, fintechs' access to bank account data is pretty good, he said.

New York bank fined $30 million over pandemic-era unemployment fraud - Metropolitan Commercial Bank has agreed to pay $30 million to the Federal Reserve Board and the New York State Department of Financial Services for failing to prevent what regulators called "massive fraud" in a prepaid card program during the pandemic.Superintendent of Financial Services Adrienne A. Harris announced a settlement and consent order Thursday that resolves an investigation into $6.7 billion-asset Metropolitan, which is based in New York.Metropolitan was the sponsoring bank of digital prepaid Visa cards offered by MovoCash, a Palo Alto, California-based provider of mobile payments that calls itself a neobank. More than $300 million in pandemic unemployment benefits were misdirected into the MovoCash accounts of fraudsters, according to the New York regulators.The bank's 16-page consent order with New York regulators states that "unidentified, third-party fraud actors were able to misdirect hundreds of millions of dollars through MovoCash card accounts."Metropolitan failed to maintain a compliant and effective anti-money laundering program and conducted its banking business in an unsafe and unsound manner, according to regulators. The New York State Department of Financial Services investigation found weak controls at Metropolitan.Metropolitan "failed to prevent a massive, ongoing fraud in the MovoCash prepaid card program, allowing bad actors to abuse the financial system," Harris said in a press release. "During the pandemic, scammers used sophisticated tactics to take advantage of vulnerable New Yorkers at a time when institutions should have been most vigilant."The New York state agency fined Metropolitan $15 million. It coordinated its investigation with the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which reached aseparate $14.5 million settlement with Metropolitan. The bank, a subsidiary of Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp., violated customer identification rules and had deficient third-party risk management practices, according to the Fed.

Wells Fargo ousted from Texas muni deal over energy policy probe - Wells Fargo has been dropped from underwriting a school district bond deal in Texas, the latest sign of turmoil in the state's ongoing battle with banks over their climate change policies. Raymond James is listed as the new senior manager on the $310 million bond deal for Cypress-Fairbanks Independent School District, based outside of Houston, according to people familiar with the matter who requested not to be identified because they aren't authorized to speak on the discussions. The move shows Texas governments, major issuers of municipal bonds, are wary of working with banks that state Attorney General Ken Paxton put under review last week. Paxton said he was evaluating whether the companies can comply with a Republican-backed state law that punishes firms for restricting their work with the oil-and-gas industry because of climate change concerns. A spokesperson for Wells Fargo and Jana Fuller, a spokesperson for Raymond James, declined to comment. Representatives for the Cypress-Fairbanks Independent School District didn't respond to emails and phone calls requesting comment. Paxton's office announced in a letter dated Oct. 17 that it's reviewing companies that are members or affiliate members of the Net Zero Banking Alliance and other groups of companies that have committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Wells Fargo is a member, and Raymond James is not, according to the group's website.

'Prudence demands we act': Bank regulators unveil climate rules - U.S. banks will face pressure to address the financial threats of climate change — including in underserved communities — under two new sweeping regulatory actions.The actions, unveiled Tuesday by federal banking regulators, aim to accomplish two separate but related goals.A final rule includes a provision that explicitly incentivizes banks to help “redlined” communities weather climate-fueled disasters, potentially spurring billions of dollars in investment in everything from flood control systems to sea walls.New guidance, meanwhile, sets regulatory expectations for how large banks should measure and address their exposure to climate-related financial risk.“We should not wait for a disaster to strike before we act,” Michael Hsu, the acting comptroller of the currency, said Tuesday. “Prudence demands we act as risks emerge.”The move comes amid fierce Republican pushback against federal efforts to address the financial threats of climate change. Republican lawmakers and officials around the country in recent years have targeted financial regulators specifically, arguing that their attention to climate risk is inappropriate — and an effort to de-bank the fossil fuel industry.Climate finance advocates, for their part, welcomed both moves as positive steps toward promoting climate-related investment and risk management. But they also said the final rules come up short in a few places, including failing to limit banks’ contributions to rising global temperatures.It is “disappointing that regulators missed a key opportunity to mitigate climate risk and discourage financing for the polluting industries devastating the climate and our country’s most vulnerable communities,” Adele Shraiman, a climate finance advocate with the Sierra Club, said in a statement. Broadly, the new rule will overhaul the Community Reinvestment Act, a law Congress passed in the 1970s amid discrimination against low-income households and communities of color by government housing programs and private banks.The CRA aims to eliminate that practice — known as redlining — and remedy its harmful impacts by requiring financial regulators to assess whether banks are actually providing loans to all communities, regardless of race or income, in the areas where they have branches. Those assessments are used in various decisions; regulators consider them, for instance, when banks apply to merge with another institution or to open a new branch. The Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. — which together released the final rule — said it will modernize the CRA, which hasn’t been updated in nearly three decades.“CRA seeks to address one of the most intractable challenges of our financial markets; access to credit, investment and basic banking service for low and moderate income communities, both urban and rural,” FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg said Tuesday.The agencies said the central goal with the updated rule — which runs nearly 1,500 pages — is to account for major shifts in the banking sector since it was last updated in 1995 as well as to make CRA requirements more rigorous. The final version does so in a range of ways, including expanding fair lending requirements beyond a bank’s branch networks to areas where it has a concentration of mortgage and small business loans. That provision is meant to account for the reality that banks now do much of their business online, far away from physical branches.

Federal regulators finalize guidance on climate risks Federal regulators have finalized guidance on managing risks related to climate change despite objections from conservative officials and banks. The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency formally adopted a set of principles Tuesday for banks with more than $100 billion of assets when managing climate-related risks. The guidelines largely mirrored individual proposals issued by each agency in 2021 and 2022,, albeit with a handful of changes to address comments and questions raised by the public. The finalized principles clarified the expectations for large foreign banks, established standards for managers and boards of directors within banks and took out a previous reference to compensation. FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg said the principles create a necessary "high-level framework" for managing climate-related risks to the financial system. In a statement, he also noted that climate change should not be viewed as a long-term threat, noting that instances of severe weather are already influencing financial considerations such as insurance costs. "Climate-related financial risks pose a clear and significant risk to the U.S. financial system. If improperly assessed and managed, they may pose a threat to safe and sound banking and financial stability," Gruenberg said. "These principles are designed to help financial institutions make progress toward incorporating climate-related financial risks into risk management frameworks in a manner consistent with safe and sound practices."

Mastercard adds open-banking partners as it preps for CFPB rules -- Mastercard is pushing harder into the market for open banking, even as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is starting to weigh in on this market.Open banking refers to sharing banking, payments and other data between banks and third parties through application programming interfaces. That sharing enables consumers to access more products from other providers without having to establish distinct relationships with the third parties. The card network in the past few days has announced partnerships involving merchant services firm FIS, buy now/pay later lender Zip, JPMorgan Chase and Verizon, helping to support identity verification, credit risk and other services. At nearly the same time, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has released its proposed rules for open banking that would give consumers more control over their data and restrict how third parties use customer information."Consumers and businesses own their data; they should control it and benefit from its use," said Jess Turner, executive vice president of open banking at Mastercard, adding that Mastercard is reviewing the proposed CFPB regulations and believes the bureau should strike a balance by defining consumer data ownership without creating undue burdens for industry participants. "Our position in the U.S. open-banking industry allows us to work with our customers and partners to enhance secure data-sharing methods as APIs become more available," Turner said.While the CFPB envisions open banking as a way of "leveling the field" for small financial institutions, Mastercard views its role as a matchmaker for firms that want to use open banking.

Fed proposes rule to slash interchange fee cap --The Federal Reserve Board of Governors has proposed slashing the cap on the interchange fees banks are allowed to charge merchants for debit card transactions. Citing the lower overall authorization, clearing and settlement costs incurred by debit card issuers in recent years, the Fed proposed a rule change Wednesday that would lower both the base level cap and the transaction-proportionate component of its so-called swipe fee cap."The debit card related costs incurred by large debit card issuers have changed significantly since the interchange fee cap was established," Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said during a public hearing Wednesday afternoon. "The proposed rule would update the interchange fee cap for the first time since it was adopted to reflect the changes in debit card related costs, so that the cap remains reasonable and proportional to these costs."The base component would fall from 21 cents per transaction to 14.4 cents, while the so-called ad valorem element would be multiplied by 4 basis points instead of 5 basis points. The fraud-prevention adjustment, meanwhile, would tick up slightly from 1 cent to 1.3 cents.Overall, under the proposed framework, the interchange fee a debit card issuer could charge on a $50 transaction would be capped at 17.7 cents, down from 24.5 cents under the current rule, a decrease of nearly 28%. The proposal also calls for the Fed to re-evaluate its cap on swipe fees every two years, using data that it has been collecting for more than a decade. Data would continue to be gathered in odd-numbered years, but the board would have to announce changes by March 31 of those years and implement them by July 1. These biannual changes would not be subject to public comment.If adopted, the rule would be a blow to banks and exchange network operators, which would see their revenue slashed by the lower cap. Meanwhile, merchants would benefit from the lower payment costs. Proponents of lower exchange fees say this cost savings will be passed along to consumers, but banks and their allies question the degree to which lower swipe fees will be baked into goods and services. They also say the shift will force banks to increase costs elsewhere.

Mastercard CEO slams proposals to alter swipe fees --Congress and the Federal Reserve are considering several updates to their rules for card fees, drawing the ire of Mastercard CEO Michael Miebach. During Mastercard's earnings call on Thursday, Miebach weighed in on the Credit Card Competition Act, the potential lowering of the cap on swipe fees and an extension of existing debit network routing rules to include online payments.Miebach expressed his opposition to the regulations, calling the CCCA, for example, "a misguided proposal and misguided legislation."For the quarter ending September 30, Mastercard reported net revenue of $6.5 billion, up 11% from the prior year's $5.85 billion. Earnings per share were $3.39, up 24% from about $2.73 the prior year. Analysts from Zacks Investment Research projected EPS of $3.21 per share, and Mastercard's revenue report was in line with analysts projections. Mastercard also reported its value-added services increased by 17%, driven by the growth of the card network's fraud prevention, consulting and marketing services. The government's proposals mostly deal with how payment fees are levied, changing rules in a manner that theoretically would erode the major card networks' ability to set prices. The Credit Card Competition Act is sponsored by Sen. Richard Durbin, D-Ill., and Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., who recently called for a vote by the end of the year. The CCCA would require credit card issuing banks with assets over $100 billion to offer two options to route transactions, with at least one of those options being a network that is not Visa or Mastercard — making the network routing rules for credit cards the same as they are for debit cards. The bill's supporters say it would generate competition that will lower card fees. In an American Banker op-ed, Doug Kantor, general counsel of the National Association of Convenience Stores, said: "The answer [to high fees] is to pass legislation that fixes the broken credit card market by requiring big banks and giant card networks to compete the same way small businesses do every day." Opponents say the changes could reduce card protections. In another American Banker op-ed,Elizabeth Gore, president and co-founder of small-business fintech Hello Alice, said the bill would "line the pockets" of megaretailers who are unlikely to pass savings on to the consumer.

CFPB says consumers paid $130 billion in credit card interest and fees - Credit card companies charged consumers $105 billion in interest and $25 billion in fees last year, the highest amount on record, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said in a biannual report to Congress. The 175-page report released Wednesday comes as the CFPB is expected to finalize a proposed rule that aims to cut credit card late fees to $8, potentially wiping out up to $9 billion a year in profits for banks and credit card issuers. Currently, credit card late fees average $30 for the first offense and $41 for subsequent missed payments. The CFPB's proposal would no longer allow late fees to be pegged annually to inflation. Last year, consumers were charged $14.5 billion in late fees as credit card debt surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, the CFPB found. Annual spending on credit cards increased to $3.2 trillion. A key takeaway from the report is that more borrowers are getting caught in "persistent debt," with one in 10 charged more in interest and fees than they pay toward principal each year. With rising interest rates, consumers are paying more on revolving credit. Borrowers who carried credit card balances paid 94% of total interest and fees last year. Credit card rewards programs also are getting closer scrutiny because roughly three-quarters of rewards go to consumers who pay off their balances each month. "Last year, Americans paid $130 billion in interest and fees on their credit cards," CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a press release. "With credit card debt crossing the trillion dollar mark, we will be working to prevent bait-and-switch tactics when it comes to rewards and to increase refinancing activity so consumers can get lower rates."

Community Reinvestment Act rule finally crosses the finish line -- The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted to issue a final rule revamping the Community Reinvestment Act Tuesday morning, redefining the criteria for small, intermediate and large banks; introducing new evaluation tests based on loan activity rather than branch location; and incentivizing banks to conduct more community development activities. "[It] will better achieve the purposes of the law by encouraging banks to expand access to credit, investment and banking services in low- and moderate-income communities," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a statement. He said it is adapted to "changes in the banking industry, such as mobile and online banking; providing greater clarity and consistency in the application of the CRA regulations; and tailoring to bank size and type." The new rule, jointly released by the Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will go into effect on Jan. 1, 2026. The final rule redefines the asset size thresholds and methods with which regulators evaluate lenders. Small banks will be defined as having total assets of less than $600 million, an increase from the $376 million threshold under the current framework. Intermediate banks are defined as having total assets between $600 million to $2 billion and large banks as those having assets of $2 billion or greater. Large banks will face four tests: a retail lending test, a community development finance test, a retail services and products test and a community development services test. Intermediate banks would be evaluated under only the new retail lending test and the existing community development evaluation test, but will have the option to be evaluated under the community development financing test. The final rule would maintain the current CRA evaluation for small banks, unless a small bank opts into the retail lending test. The new rule requires banks to lend to lower-income communities in areas where they have a concentration of mortgage and small-business loans, rather than just where they have physical branches — a change regulators say is meant to bring the CRA into an increasingly mobile banking ecosystem. The draft final rule would include a new requirement that large banks have their retail lending evaluated in an area outside of the bank's branch network if the bank originated a large enough number of closed-end home mortgage or small-business loans in that area. These areas are referred to as retail lending assessment areas, and would only be evaluated under the retail lending test. Deviating from the proposal, the final rule will give equal weight to large banks' retail lending and community development financing activities. The rule also makes some significant changes to the May 2022 proposed rule, primarily in ways that will reduce the rule's impact on banks. For example, the draft final rule exempts predominantly branch-based banks from the requirement to delineate their retail lending assessment areas. The draft final rule would also allow banks to gain CRA credit for retail lending that occurs outside of a bank's assessment areas at the institution level. That provision would apply to all large banks and to certain intermediate banks. The updated retail lending test would include two different sets of metrics to evaluate retail lending in each community: The first metric would evaluate the dollar amount of a bank's retail lending relative to its deposits in a community, the other would evaluate the bank's percentage of loans from each of its product lines allocated to low- and moderate-income neighborhoods in an area. The metrics would also evaluate the percentage of loans to low- and moderate-income individual borrowers and to small businesses of different sizes. The draft final rule would also set thresholds to help develop conclusions about a bank's performance, for example: the percentage of mortgage lending to moderate-income borrowers that would correspond with a high satisfactory rating — a change relative to current evaluations, which do not provide guidelines on the percentage of lending that generally corresponds with different levels of performance.

Will banks sue over the Community Reinvestment Act rule? — Dissenting members of the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. gave voice to a number of potential legal challenges to a newly-finalized revamp of the Community Reinvestment Act, but it remains unclear whether banks will want to challenge the anti-redlining regulations in court. Columbia Law Professor Todd Baker said there are a number of legal theories that banks could include in a legal challenge. One, which was outlined by FDIC vice chair Travis Hill, is that regulated banks were given insufficient time to consider such a long and complicated rulemaking. That kind of argument would likely gain a favorable reception at the Supreme Court, he said. "If the regulators go ahead without more industry discussion and negotiation, there are likely to be legal challenges under the Administrative Procedures Act alleging that the CRA rule failed to comply with procedural requirements — in this case a longer notice and comment period given the new mandates in the proposed rule — or is 'arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise not in accordance with law,'" Baker said. "A filing with a conservative District Court in the Fifth Circuit could lead to an injunction, appeals and an ultimate decision by a Supreme Court that increasingly eschews Chevron deference to agency interpretation and has a hostile view of regulation in general." Ian Katz, managing director at Capital Alpha Partners, wouldn't speculate on whether banks will challenge the rule, but acknowledged that if they try, there are venues out there where they could successfully make their case. "The banks have a sympathetic judiciary, especially in the Fifth District, so they might feel they have a strong enough case to win there," he said. "That makes a suit a real possibility." Katz added the CRA rule may be a difficult one to argue as hastily crafted, given how long it has been in the works and how many different iterations of it have been presented. "On the other hand, this rulemaking has been in the works a long time, with a couple of iterations of proposals, he noted. "It might be harder to make the case that it wasn't studied or analyzed sufficiently. But you only need one interested party to sue, so of course it's possible." APA compliance isn't the only legal grounds that dissenting regulators raised over the CRA rule. FDIC board member Jonathan McKernan said Tuesday that he was concerned that certain aspects of the agencies' final rule might be exceeding the statute's original Congressional intent. "I have yet to be convinced that the regulators have statutory authority to prescribe important aspects of the rule," he said at the board meeting. "The CRA requires each agency to assess a bank's record of 'meeting the credit needs of its entire community,' [and] I have not seen a convincing argument that we have the authority to consider lending activities outside a bank's facility-based assessment areas."

BankThink: CRA rule gives smallish banks a kick in the pants — and that's good | American Banker - Way back in 2015 when I covered the Federal Reserve, I got a chance to ask then-Fed Chair Janet Yellen a question about the Community Reinvestment Act and what, if anything, the Fed was considering doing to improve the implementing regulations of the statute. I got the distinct impression that my question was somewhat unanticipated — the agency's regulatory agenda at the time was centered around finalizing a capital buffer for Global Systemically Important Banks, known as the G-SIB surcharge, rather than on the CRA. But Yellen nonetheless affirmed the CRA's importance and acknowledged that the rules could stand to improve. Fast forward to today, when the Fed passed, by a 6-1 vote, a major overhaul of the implementing regulations of the CRA, the first such overhaul since the mid-1990s and one of only a few recalibrations of the rule since it was first passed in 1977. That progress was by no means linear — the Trump administration, particularly former Comptroller of the Currency Joseph Otting, had made a run at CRA reform before, though he was unable to get the Fed on board with his vision of what an overhauled CRA would look like. Then came the Biden administration, which vowed to do its own overhaul — but this time regulators would do it together as a team.Both banks and community groups have had their own distinct gripes with how the CRA is implemented, and have had those gripes for quite some time. Banks have long argued that it is difficult to know ahead of time whether a particular loan or service would qualify for CRA credit — meaning a bank could incur the costs and risks of making a suboptimal loan only to learn later that it obtained no CRA benefit from doing so. Community groups, meanwhile, have long argued that tethering CRA obligations to places where a bank has physical branches disincentivizes banks from having a presence in marginalized communities and does not take into account online or mobile deposits when determining CRA service areas.Enter today's final rule. The biggest changes from the current regime are the inclusion of a list of prequalified lending activities that banks can rely on to grant CRA credit on the one hand (a win for banks) and tethers CRA requirements to digital deposits and allows banks to get CRA credit for community development projects regardless of CRA service area (a win for community groups). One aspect of the final rule that caught my attention, however, is regulators' choice to tailor a bank's CRA obligations to its size. Regulators do this with almost all their rules, and typically banks with less than $10 billion of assets — the shorthand definition of a community bank — are exempt from the most binding and onerous requirements. But with the proposed CRA rule — and as affirmed in the final version — large banks are defined as those with $2 billion of assets or more. It is one thing to make rules more onerous, and quite another to make them more onerous for a wide swath of what are generally considered "small" banks, and I for one think that's a smart choice if regulators want the rules to affect meaningful changes for the banking industry.Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman — the Fed's designated community bank representativeand lone "no" vote on the final CRA rule — didn't agree, and took exception to the $2 billion threshold as the centerpiece of her opposition to the rule."In no other provision of the regulatory framework is a bank with $2 billion in assets considered a 'large' bank," Bowman said. "For well over a decade, community banks have been defined to include banks with up to $10 billion in total assets. Characterizing these banks as 'large banks' simply ignores established definitions and is inconsistent with existing regulatory practice."

White House announces push to convert empty commercial buildings to housing - The Biden administration on Friday announced federal financing and other incentives designed to convert high-vacancy commercial buildings in downtown spaces around the country into residential use in an attempt to increase housing supply. Administration officials said office space vacancies have hit a 30-year high, while housing costs remain high for millions of Americans and there is a shortage of affordable housing units. Lael Brainard, director of the National Economic Council, said on a call with reporters that converting empty commercial buildings into residential use represents a “win-win” opportunity to simultaneously revitalize downtown areas with unused office space while increasing affordable housing units. “Housing affordability is a challenge for many American households, so the president has asked us to take a whole-of-government approach to making sure that we have affordable and accessible housing,” Brainard said. To make it easier for state and local officials to convert commercial space to residential space, the Biden administration released new guidance on how they can get financing for loans for those conversions through the Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act and Railroad Rehabilitation & Improvement Financing programs. The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is releasing new guidance on how the Community Development Block Grant fund can be used to boost housing supply, while the Department of Transportation is releasing guidance to make it easier for transit agencies to transfer properties that are no longer needed, such as underutilized storage facilities that could be converted to affordable housing. Administration officials acknowledged that many Americans either live far away from their work because of housing costs, or live somewhere unaffordable so they can be close to work. The new investments announced Friday are intended to help remedy those conflicts. Even as inflation has come down over the past year in the United States, the cost of housing has remained high. Housing costs were up 7.2 percent annually in August, compared with the headline inflation number of 3.7 percent. The housing sector is also one of those most closely tied to interest rate hikes. The 30-year-fixed rate mortgage is at a 20-year high of 7.5 percent, creating increased costs for those seeking to purchase a home.

Soaring home insurance rates are squeezing homeowners : NPR— Many in Florida are finding homeowners' insurance unaffordable, and it's only getting worse.Gregg Weiss lives in an older neighborhood in West Palm Beach. His home and many others are nearly a century old. It's a great place to live he says, except when it comes to buying homeowners insurance. Two years ago, he was shocked at a notice he received from his insurance company."The windstorm portion of our insurance went from about $10,000 a year which is not cheap," he says. "But it doubled and went up to $20,000." He called his insurance agent and got some surprising advice. "She said honestly, my recommendation is: pay off your mortgage and self-insure yourself."Weiss, who's currently serving as Palm Beach County's mayor, says he and his wife took her advice. They paid off their mortgage and dropped their insurance. And he knows others who are doing the same.But for homeowners in Florida who have mortgages and are required to carry insurance, there's little recourse except to cover the steep increases. There are reports that because of the high insurance costs, some are beingforced to leave the state.In many places, including California, Colorado and Louisiana, there's been a steep rise in the cost of homeowners' insurance. But it's particularly staggering in Florida, a state that already has the highest insurance costs in the nation. Many Floridians have seen insurance premiums go up by more than 40% this year.And despite efforts by lawmakers to stabilize the market, costs are likely to keep rising.Officials have heard the complaints. After a recent hearing at the state Capitol in Tallahassee, Florida's insurance commissioner, Michael Yaworsky, said, "Everyone is in this together. It is a very difficult time for Florida homeowners."The cost of homeowners' insurance in Florida is more than three-and-a-half times the national average. There are lots of reasons — among them, the three hurricanes that battered the state in the last two years. But policymakers and the insurance industry say excessive litigation has played a major role in driving up prices.

CoreLogic: "US Serious Mortgage Delinquency Rate Drops to All-Time Low in August" --From CoreLogic: US Serious Mortgage Delinquency Rate Drops to All-Time Low in August, CoreLogic Reports In August 2023, 2.6% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), representing a 0.2 percentage point decrease compared with 2.8% in August 2022 and a 0.1 percentage point decrease from July 2023.To gain a complete view of the mortgage market and loan performance health, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency. In August 2023, the U.S. delinquency and transition rates and their year-over-year changes, were as follows:

• Early-Stage Delinquencies (30 to 59 days past due): 1.3%, up from 1.2% in August 2022.
• Adverse Delinquency (60 to 89 days past due): 0.4%, up from 0.3% in August 2022.
• Serious Delinquency (90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure): 0.9%, down from 1.2% in August 2022 and a high of 4.3% in August 2020.
• Foreclosure Inventory Rate (the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process): 0.3%, unchanged from August 2022.
• Transition Rate (the share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due): 0.6%, unchanged from August 2022.

The share of U.S. mortgages that fell into serious delinquency — representing borrowers who are three months late on payments — dropped to the lowest level in nearly 25 years in August, at 0.9%. Nationwide, overall mortgage delinquencies (2.6%) and foreclosures (0.3%) also remained near historic lows, a clear sign that most U.S. homeowners can currently cover their monthly payments. But as interest rates have approached 8% in October, more prospective buyers could be sidelined, a factor that makes timing the housing market crucial to building long-term wealth.“U.S. mortgage performance remained strong in August, supported by a robust job market and a healthy economy,” said Molly Boesel, principal economist at CoreLogic. “However, this thriving job market comes at a time when interest rates are quickly rising, which is keeping many potential homebuyers from being able to secure a mortgage.” Delinquencies are a trailing indicator, but there will not be a residential foreclosure crisis this cycle.

Fannie and Freddie: Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency Rate Mostly Unchanged in September -- I’ve argued that there would not be a huge wave of single-family foreclosures this cycle since lending standards have been solid and most homeowners have substantial equity. That means we will not see cascading price declines like following the housing bubble. Delinquencies are a trailing indicator but are something to watch. However, there is some concern about some multi-family properties.Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in September was 0.55%, unchanged from 0.55% August. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 0.67% in September 2022. This is now below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.60%. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency increased to 0.54% in September from 0.53% in August. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.69% in September 2022. This is also below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus. For Fannie, by vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 1.74% are seriously delinquent (unchanged from 1.74% in August). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 2.68% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.72%).For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2023 (98% of portfolio), 0.45% are seriously delinquent (same as 0.45% in August). So, Fannie is still working through a handful of poor performing loans from the bubble years.Freddie Mac reports that multi-family delinquencies decreased to 0.24% in September, down from 0.25% in August. This was up from 0.13% in September 2022.This graph shows the Freddie multi-family serious delinquency rate since 2012. Delinquency rates were still high in 2012 following the housing bust and financial crisis.The multi-family delinquency rate increased following the pandemic and has increased recently as rent growth has stalled, vacancy rates have increased, lending has tightened, and interest rates have increased sharply. This will be something to watch as rents soften.

Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in September --From ICE / Black Knight: ICE First Look at Monthly Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Rose in September While Foreclosure Activity Remained Muted

• The national delinquency rate rose to 3.29% in September, up 12 basis points (BPS) from August and +13BPS year over year, marking only the second – and largest – annual increase in the past 2.5 years
• Despite the rise, the delinquency rate is still 71BPS below the level of pre-pandemic September 2019
• Loans 30 days past due rose by 48.8K (+5.1%) – marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise – while the 60-day delinquent population extended its own streak of increases (+8.7K; +3.0%) to six months
• At the national level, serious delinquencies (90+ days past due) rose by 7K to 455K, but remain 6.7% below September 2019 levels
• While overall delinquencies have risen, the number of loans in active foreclosure fell to 214K in September, its lowest point since March 2022 and some 25% below 2019 pre-pandemic levels
• Foreclosure starts also declined, falling by -20.4% in the month to 25.4K, with completed sales down 8% from the month prior
• Prepay activity (measured as single-month mortality) dropped to 0.45% under continued pressure from seasonal homebuying patterns confounded by interest rates north of 7%, and is down -26% year over year

According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent increased 3.7% in September compared to August and increased 4.3% year-over-year. Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 3.29% in August, up from 3.17% the previous month. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased in September to 0.40%, from 0.41% the previous month. The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is up 96,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 13,000 properties year-over-year.

Housing market: Real estate poised to tip back into recession - Warning that the housing market is contracting again as today’s mortgage rates hover near 8%, Wells Fargo economists wrote in a new analysis that rising borrowing costs “stand to tip the housing sector back into a recession.” The “ominous” special commentary posted Thursday, according to a Wells Fargo news release, states prospects for a housing rebound are dimming as mortgage rates tighten their grip on the already sharp U.S. housing affordability issues.Even though the economy has shown “a remarkable degree of resilience” this year — and a strong labor market along with moderating inflation has “raised hopes that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession — the same can’t be said for the real estate market. Unfortunately, not every sector of the economy has been as sturdy in the face of rising debt costs,” the Wells Fargo economic group wrote.“After generally improving in the first half of 2023, the residential sector now appears to be contracting alongside the recent move higher in mortgage rates,” they continued. “Although mortgage rates may gradually descend once the Federal Reserve begins to ease monetary policy, financing costs are likely to remain elevated relative to recent norms.”The commentary comes days after Goldman Sachs analysts also issued a downgraded housing forecast, predicting “higher for longer” mortgage rates will continue to squeeze home inventory and yet home prices will stay in the green, though growth will be slight as sales slow even more.It also comes a day after the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta posted an update to its Home Ownership Affordability Monitor, showing housing affordability sank to a “new record low” in August due to still stubbornly high prices and rising interest rates.In yet another month of declines, the monitor index score sank to 67.3 in August with a national median home price of $377,500, a median income of $76,621, a total median monthly payment of $2,848 and an interest rate of 7.1%. The Atlanta Fed estimated the annual total payment share of median income to be 44.6%, well over the recommended 30% of income for housing costs.Compare that score to a score of 112.3 in November 2012, when the median home price was $197,333, median income was $52,161, and the interest rate was 3.4%.This latest affordability reading was back in August, before interest rates inched closer to 8%, hitting that threshold last week before tipping down only slightly, according to Mortgage News Daily.This “higher for longer” interest rate climate is likely to “not only weigh on demand, but could also constrain supply by reducing new construction and discouraging prospective sellers carrying low mortgage rates from listing their homes for sale,” Wells Fargo economists wrote.

CoreLogic Forecasts 3.5% Growth in HPI from July 2023 to 2024 --Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by a substantial 3.7% year over year in August 2023 compared with August 2022. On a month-over-month basis, there was a 0.3% increase in home prices in August 2023 compared with July 2023. These revisions incorporate newly released public data to ensure accuracy. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast predicts that home prices will continue to rise. It indicates a 0.2% month-over-month increase from August 2023 to September 2023 and a 3.4% year-over-year increase from August 2023 to August 2024. This forecast suggests continued growth in the housing market. While some states in the West experienced annual home price losses in August, this number has been decreasing since the spring of this year. In contrast, housing markets in New England are heating up, with states like New Hampshire, Maine, Vermont, and Rhode Island witnessing significant year-over-year price gains in August. “While continued mortgage rate increases challenge affordability across U.S. housing markets, home price growth is in line with typical seasonal averages, reflecting strong demand bolstered by a healthy labor market, strong wage growth and supporting demographic trends. Still, with a slower buying season ahead and the surging cost of homeownership, additional monthly price gains may taper off.” Selma Hepp – Chief Economist for CoreLogicAmong the states, New Hampshire stood out with a remarkable 9.4% year-over-year increase in home prices, closely followed by Maine and Vermont, both at 8.9%. These states are leading the way in home price growth.In large U.S. metros, Miami posted the most substantial gain at 8.3% year over year. This shows that not only are individual states experiencing growth, but major metropolitan areas are also contributing to the overall positive trend in home prices.The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI) highlights markets that are at risk of home price decline in the coming year. Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA, is at a very high risk, with a probability of over 70% for a price decline. Other areas like Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL; Youngstown-Warren-Boardman OH-PA; Ocala, FL; and Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL are also at very high risk for price declines.

Housing October 23rd Weekly Update: Inventory increased 1.4% Week-over-week; Down 3.1% Year-over-year -- Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.4% week-over-week. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of October 20th, inventory was at 554 thousand (7-day average), compared to 546 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is up 12.9%. And inventory is up 36.7% from the seasonal bottom 27 weeks ago.The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels.Inventory was down 3.1% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was down 3.5%), and down 40.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 42.3%). In 2022, inventory didn't peak until the last week in October, and it appears same week inventory will be below 2022 levels for the remainder of the year - depending on when inventory finally peaks this year! Inventory is now slightly above the same week in 2020 levels (dark blue line).Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 2.0% YoY; New Listings Down 1.0% YoY - Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Jiayi Xu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 21, 2023 Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 2.0%. For 18 straight weeks, the number of homes available for sale has registered below that of the previous year. ... The number of for-sale homes registered 45.1% below typical pre-pandemic levels in September. New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 1.0% from one year ago. Since mid-2022, new listings have registered lower than prior year levels, as the mortgage-rate lock-in effect freezes homeowners with low-rate existing mortgages in place. Although the year over year declines are smaller now than the double-digit pace seen earlier in 2023, declines from the pre-pandemic period are still substantial.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was down 2.0% year-over-year - this was the eighteenth consecutive week with a YoY decrease following 58 consecutive weeks with a YoY increase in inventory. The YoY decline in inventory has generally been getting smaller recently but might stay down YoY for the remainder of 2023 since inventory was increasing late into the year last year. However, I expect inventory to be up YoY soon - but still historically very low.New listings really collapsed a year ago, so the YoY comparison for new listings is easier now - and although new listings remain historically very low, new listings will likely be up YoY soon.

NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 1.1% in September; Down 11% Year-over-year -- From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Grew 1.1% in September Pending home sales augmented 1.1% in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast, Midwest and South posted monthly gains in transactions while the West experienced a loss. All four U.S. regions had year-over-year declines in transactions."Despite the slight gain, pending contracts remain at historically low levels due to the highest mortgage rates in 20 years," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. "Furthermore, inventory remains tight, which hinders sales but keeps home prices elevated."The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – rose 1.1% to 72.6 in September. Year over year, pending transactions declined 11%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. ... The Northeast PHSI increased 0.8% from last month to 63.1, a loss of 12.7% from September 2022. The Midwest index expanded 4.1% to 74.3 in September, down 9.2% from one year ago.The South PHSI rose 0.7% to 87.1 in September, retreating 10.7% from the prior year. The West index declined 1.8% in September to 55.3, dropping 12.9% from September 2022. This was above expectations. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in October and November.

New Home Sales increase to 759,000 Annual Rate in September - The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 759 thousand.The previous three months were revised down slightly, combined. Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 759,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.3 percent above the revised August rate of 676,000 and is 33.9 percent above the September 2022 estimate of 567,000.The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.New home sales are above pre-pandemic levels.The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.The months of supply decreased in September to 6.9 months from 7.7 months in August.The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.This is above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal)."The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 435,000. This represents a supply of 6.9 months at the current sales rate."Sales were well above expectations of 679 thousand SAAR, and sales for the three previous months were only revised down slightly, combined.

Prices of New Houses -15% from Peak on High Inventories. Sales Held Up with Lower Prices & Massive Mortgage-Rate Buydowns -- by Wolf Richter -- To sell new houses in this 8%-mortgage environment, homebuilders – whose stocks have gotten battered since August – have resorted to mortgage-rate buydowns through their own mortgage companies. Earnings calls are now all about those buydowns and their costs, including PulteGroup’s earnings call yesterday which is currently buying down 30-year 8% fixed-rate mortgages permanently to 5.75%. That incentive works in selling houses; but costs are steep. We’ll get to the earnings call in a moment, but keep that in mind as we walk through the figures on new house sales, prices, and inventories. The median price of new single-family houses sold in September fell by 3.3% from the prior month, and was down by 12.3% from a year ago, and down by 15.7% from the peak in October 2022, according to data from the Census Bureau today. As you can see in the chart, following a big drop, it has essentially moved sideways since April. But these are contract prices and do not include the costs of mortgage-rate buydowns and other incentives such as upgrades of countertops. In this regard, Pulte said that its “incentive load” – now mostly mortgage rate buydowns – was 6.3% of the average selling price of $549,000 in Q3, or $35,000 per house. These buydowns effectively lower the buyer’s costs, but they’re not included in the data here by the Census Bureau, which tracks contract prices. Sales of new houses – not seasonally adjusted, and not the annual rate of sales – rose to 60,000 houses in September, up by 36% from the beaten-down levels a year ago. These sales levels would normally be nothing to write home about, but in the 8% environment, they’re pretty good, testimony to the effectiveness of price cuts, houses built at lower price points, and mortgage-rate buydowns. Homebuilders, unlike current homeowners, have figured out this market. Their business is to build and sell homes no matter what the market does. But homeowners who want to sell are still muttering, “this too shall pass,” and are not putting their homes on the market, and those that are putting them on the market are now cutting prices at a substantial rate but not nearly enough to bring in buyers, so sales of previously owned homes have plunged. Inventory for sale of new houses in all stages of construction rose to 441,000 houses. And supply, given the increase in sales, dipped to a still fairly high 6.9 months. This would have been the highest supply in the years between 2011 and March 2020, so more than ample inventory and supply, and homebuilders will have to move it, and they’ll be motivated to play with prices and incentives: Key inflation measure rose in September A key inflation measure monitored by the Federal Reserve rose in September, according to data reported by the Commerce Department on Friday. The “core” personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3 percent in September, weighing in at a 3.7 percent annual rate, down from 3.9 percent in August. That’s the lowest point since May 2021. The uptick was higher than expected, but the core figures were in-line with Wall Street predictions. The Fed is set to meet next week to discuss further interest rate hikes. The central bank has repeatedly raised rates over the last year-and-a-half in an effort to tame stubbornly high inflation and slow a surprisingly resilient economy. The U.S. economy exceeded expectations once again in data reported Thursday, which showed gross domestic product (GDP) growing at a 4.9 percent annual rate. While the Fed held interest rates steady at a range of 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent at its most recent meeting in September, it has indicated that there may be one more quarter-point hike before the end of the year. The central bank also suggested last month that rates would remain higher for longer than previously expected.

PCE Measure of Shelter Slows to 7.2% YoY in September - Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through September 2023. CPI Shelter was up 7.1% year-over-year in September, down from 7.2% in August, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 7.2% YoY in September, down from 7.4% in August, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023. Since asking rents are slightly negative year-over-year, these measures will continue to slow over coming months.

Personal Income increased 0.3% in September; Spending increased 0.7% - The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for September:Personal income increased $77.8 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $56.1 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $138.7 billion (0.7 percent). The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Real DPI decreased 0.1 percent in September and real PCE increased 0.4 percent; goods increased 0.5 percent and services increased 0.3 percentThe September PCE price index increased 3.4 percent year-over-year (YoY), unchanged from 3.4 percent YoY in August, and down from the recent peak of 7.0 percent in June 2022. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 3.7 percent YoY, down from 3.8 percent in August, and down from the recent peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through September 2023 (2017 dollars).

Real Disposable Income Per Capita Falls for Fourth Straight Month - With the release of September's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to -0.13% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 6.52% nominal and 2.98% real. Disposable income is the amount of personal income that remains after income taxes have been deducted. Real disposable income is the post tax and benefit income after an adjustment has been made for price changes. This economic indicator is monitored to see how consumers save, spend, and borrow.Post-great recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015 with increases in 2012 and 2013. As a result of COVID pandemic stimulus measures, major spikes can be seen in April 2020, January 2021 (a December 2020 payment), and March 2021.The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013 and more recently, by COVID stimulus.The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2017 for inflation adjustment. But the 2017 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000. Nominal disposable income is up 138% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up 43%.

Retail: October Seasonal Hiring vs. Holiday Retail Sales -- Every year I track seasonal retail hiring for hints about holiday retail sales. At the bottom of this post is a graph showing the correlation between October seasonal hiring and holiday retail sales. Here is a graph of retail hiring for previous years based on the BLS employment report: This graph shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year. Retailers hired 509 thousand seasonal workers last year (using BLS data, Not Seasonally Adjusted), and 144 thousand seasonal workers last October. Note that in the early '90s, retailers started hiring seasonal workers earlier - and the trend towards hiring earlier has continued. The following scatter graph is for the years 2005 through 2022 and compares October retail hiring with the real increase (inflation adjusted) for retail sales (Q4 over previous Q4). In general October hiring is a pretty good indicator of seasonal sales. R-square is 0.77 for this small sample. Note: This uses retail sales in Q4, and excludes autos, gasoline and restaurants. NOTE: The dot in the upper right - with real Retail sales up over 10% YoY is for 2020 - when retail sales soared due to the pandemic spending on goods (service spending was soft). When the October employment report is released on November 3rd, I'll be looking at seasonal retail hiring for hints on what the retailers actually expect for the holiday season.

LA Port Traffic Increases in September -- Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 1.5% in September compared to the rolling 12 months ending in July. Outbound traffic increased 1.2% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were up 17% YoY in September, and exports were up 16% YoY.

Strike by Canadian-based operators paralyzes St. Lawrence Seaway shipping -- Some 360 engineers, operators, maintenance workers, supervisors and administrative staff walked off the job early Sunday morning, shutting down shipping through the St. Lawrence Seaway. Organized in five separate union locals, the highly skilled workers, members of Unifor, are demanding a significant wage increase to protect against past and current wage erosion from inflation. Within a few hours of the strike’s launch, business organizations were screaming for strikebreaking legislation from the Trudeau Liberal government, which criminalized a strike by 7,200 British Columbia dockers this past summer. For Seaway management, wage protection against inflation was simply a bridge too far. There were, they arrogantly complained, “1,000 nautical miles” between their proposals and the workers’ demands. The workers oversee the operation of an extensive system of channels, locks, bridges and canals between Montreal and Niagara that allows for the transit of deep-water freighters on the Great Lakes/St. Lawrence River waterway from the western tip of Lake Superior through to ports in Quebec and then beyond. Last year, almost $17 billion worth of foodstuffs, minerals and materials—nearly half of it grain and iron ore—passed through the seaway system. Without a contract since March, the workers rejected a tentative deal presented to them by Unifor in late July. Reflecting the growing gulf between rank-and-file workers and the Unifor bureaucracy, the agreement was one of three contracts voted down by Unifor members across all sectors within the space of just two weeks in mid-summer. In the Greater Toronto Area, 3,700 grocery workers went on strike after soundly rejecting a miserable offer that had been promoted by the union as the “best deal in decades.” And in Windsor, Ontario, 250 salt miners on strike since February stood firm and rejected an inferior contract offer, also recommended by the union. The revolt by seaway workers comes on the heels of a bitter struggle by over 7,200 dockworkers at British Columbia’s ports throughout July. The workers, members of the International Longshore Warehouse Union (ILWU), waged a courageous 13-day strike in the face of government threats to criminalize their job action. After Labour Minister Seamus O’Regan sought to dictate the terms of a settlement, the opposition among rank-and-file workers was so great that ILWU delegates were forced to vote it down. The ILWU leadership finally succeeded in ramming through a sellout contract in collusion with the Liberal government and port bosses amid threats of legislation to prohibit future strikes. Following the ratification of the contract, the Trudeau government convened an inquiry under the Canada Labour Code into the dispute, with O’Regan declaring that its goal was to create “harmonious working relations” so as to prevent like disruptions to the operations of the West Coast ports in future contract disputes.

October Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.0 million SAAR, Up 9% YoY - From WardsAuto: October U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Looking Good Despite Strike-Related Inventory Losses. Brief excerpt: Sales are showing surprising strength in October despite the inventory hits taken at Ford, GM and Stellantis from strike-related plant shutdowns. Still, industry inventory at the end of the month will be lower by an estimated 5% because of the shutdowns, and November deliveries will be negatively impacted, too, as the rest of the industry will not be in a strong position to make up the to-date losses at the Detroit 3.This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for October (Red).On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 16.0 million SAAR, would be up 2% from last month, and up 9% from a year ago. Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing. This time vehicle sales were more suppressed by supply chain issues and have picked up recently.

Cruise Driverless Vehicles in San Francisco Suspended by California DMV “Effective Immediately.” Waymo Can Continue to Operate Robotaxis - By Wolf Richter Back on August 10, amid a noisy public backlash in San Francisco from City officials on down that made its way around the global internet, the California Public Utilities Commission voted to allow GM’s Cruise and Alphabet’s Waymo to charge riders for driverless robotaxi service, day and night, anywhere in San Francisco, with no cap on fleet sizes, and with no safety driver in the vehicle. While these driverless vehicles perform amazingly well – for example, they don’t run amok through the streets – they have been involved in some high-profile accidents, mishaps, and goofball stuff that only AI can do, with Cruise having been on the forefront with these incidents. Then a week of accidents and incidents later – which again duly made their way around the global internet as anything with San Francisco in the headline does – the California Department of Motor Vehicles ordered Cruise to cut its fleet of robotaxis operating in San Francisco in half. That was the first strike. Today came the second strike: The DMV announced that it has suspended, “effective immediately,” the permits of Cruise to operate autonomous vehicles in San Francisco. Cruise can still test the vehicles in the City, but they now must again have a safety driver behind the steering wheel — sort of like being re-issued a learner’s permit after having failed the driving test. Referring to California Code of Regulations (CCR), Title 13, paragraphs 228 and 227, the DMV cited in the statement these bases for the suspension: “Based upon the performance of the vehicles, the Department determines the manufacturer’s vehicles are not safe for the public’s operation.” “The manufacturer has misrepresented any information related to safety of the autonomous technology of its vehicles.” The DMV said: “Public safety remains the California DMV’s top priority, and the department’s autonomous vehicle regulations provide a framework to facilitate the safe testing and deployment of this technology on California public roads. When there is an unreasonable risk to public safety, the DMV can immediately suspend or revoke permits. There is no set time for a suspension.” The DMV also said that it “has provided Cruise with the steps needed to apply to reinstate its suspended permits, which the DMV will not approve until the company has fulfilled the requirements to the department’s satisfaction.” Waymo’s robotaxis doing OK. The DMV’s suspension of Cruise’s permits is not a judgment on all robotaxis – just on the ones that don’t know what they’re doing? Alphabet’s Waymo can still operate its fleet of autonomous robotaxis in the City without safety driver, and fully commercializing its operation.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 210,000 The DOL reported:In the week ending October 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 198,000 to 200,000. The 4-week moving average was 207,500, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 205,750 to 206,250.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

UAW union just ordered 6,800 workers to strike a massive Ram truck facility | CNN Business — The United Auto Workers union sent 6,800 Stellantis employees to the picket line Monday morning in a surprise, targeted strike at the company’s Ram truck facility. The Sterling Heights Assembly Plant is Stellantis’ “largest plant and biggest moneymaker,” UAW said in a statement Monday. The plant, about a half-hour north of Detroit, in Sterling Heights, Michigan, produces the Ram 1500 pickup. The union said the company, which makes vehicles under the Dodge, Ram, Jeep and Chrysler brands, has “the worst proposal on the table” in its negotiations on pay, converting temporary workers to full time and cost-of-living adjustments. “Despite having the highest revenue… the highest profit margins, and the most cash in reserve, Stellantis lags behind both Ford and General Motors in addressing the demands of their UAW workforce,” the UAW said. Stellantis said it believed that progress was being made in negotiations with the union, and appeared caught off guard by the union’s decision to strike its largest plant. “We are outraged that the UAW has chosen to expand its strike action against Stellantis. Last Thursday morning, Stellantis presented a new, improved offer to the UAW,” said the company’s statement. “Following multiple conversations that appeared to be productive, we left the bargaining table expecting a counter-proposal, but have been waiting for one ever since.” “The UAW’s continued disturbing strategy of ‘wounding’ all the Detroit 3 will have long-lasting consequences,” the company added. “With every decision to strike, the UAW sacrifices domestic market share to non-union competition.”

UAW expands strike again, hitting Stellantis' plant for Ram trucks : NPR - United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain was adamant last week that the Big Three automakers can still offer more despite already putting record contracts on the table. On Monday morning, he underscored that message, calling on 6,800 autoworkers at Stellantis' Sterling Heights Assembly Plant outside Detroit to walk out. The Big 3 automakers now have record offers on the table. UAW says they can do more The plant, Stellantis' largest, makes the bestselling RAM 1500 trucks. The expansion, announced by UAW in a statement, brings the total number of autoworkers on strike to over 40,000, with thousands more laid off in what the auto companies call a ripple effect of the strike. The union said it took the step because "Stellantis lags behind both Ford and General Motors in addressing the demands of their UAW workforce." "Stellantis has the worst proposal on the table regarding wage progression, temporary worker pay and conversion to full-time, cost-of-living adjustments (COLA), and more," the UAW said. Fain had already warned in a Facebook Live address on Friday that Stellantis' offer was lagging Ford and GM. All three automakers have proposed wage raises of 23% over the life of the contract, a significant increase from their initial proposals. Stellantis has also said it would increase its 401(k) retirement contributions to 9.5%, among other improvements, but has not agreed to a return of traditional pensions. Stellantis had agreed to cut the number of years it takes permanent employees to reach the top wage from eight to four, but Ford has now reduced the time to three years, Fain said. By laying out the Big 3's proposals side-by-side, Fain is making clear that he expects all three to get on the same page and will amp up the pressure on companies to get them to comply. "We're going to hit when we need to hit and where we need to hit," he said on Friday. Stellantis said it was outraged over the walkout at its Sterling Heights Assembly Plant. "Our very strong offer would address member demands and provide immediate financial gains for our employees," Stellantis said in a statement on Monday."Instead, the UAW has decided to cause further harm to the entire automotive industry as well as our local, state and national economies," The company warned that the UAW, in deciding to strike, was sacrificing domestic market share to its non-union competitors.

Baffled Migrants Sent from Shelter to Shelter With No Rest as City Pushes Them To Leave -Migrants are experiencing a new level of confusion and hopelessness this week as city officials make a renewed push to get them out of shelters and the city altogether.Migrants who’d been evicted from their shelters and told to reapply were directed to a site in the East Village that turned out to be a “reticketing center” the city opened over the weekend offering plane fares to anywhere in the world. Those who declined were turned away, with some sent on Monday to a “waiting room” an hour away.But by Tuesday that option had disappeared as well and new arrivals were simply told there was nothing else for them, and nowhere in particular for them to go, if they didn’t want a ticket.“We’re in the street,” said Carlos Gutéirrez, out front of the reticketing center with all his belongings, deciding what to do next. His Midtown shelter had been vacated by the Fire Department on Monday and he’d been sent to the “welcome center” at the Roosevelt Hotel in Midtown. Hours later, he was told to go from there to a site in Astoria, which was packed with people, so he was told to return to the Roosevelt. On Tuesday morning, workers there sent him to the East Village, where he was again turned away.“They’re treating us like children, sending from here to there, from there to here,” he said in Spanish. “The only thing that occurs to me is to leave New York City, but where are we going to go?”City Hall confirmed the new set up on Tuesday, telling THE CITY men leaving shelters and seeking another placement are guaranteed plane tickets to anywhere in the world and were being sent to the newly opened East Village site to get those tickets. They were not, however, guaranteed a cot to sleep on, according to Kayla Mamelak, a spokesperson for City Hall.“With no sign of a decompression strategy in the near future, we have established a reticketing center for migrants,” Mamelak said — though none of the migrants THE CITY spoke with in the East Village understood they were being sent to a reticketing site in the first place. “Here, the city will redouble efforts to purchase tickets for migrants to help them take the next steps in their journeys, and it helps us triage operations at The Roosevelt for new arrivals.”Throughout the day Monday, a stream of men arrived throughout from shelters all across the city, lugging suitcases and duffle bags having been told that the East Village location was where they should reapply for shelter. They could not.“They told me here they would help me with a shelter. I got here and it’s a lie,” said Franklin Sosa, 21, in Spanish, who’d been sent to the East Village from his former shelter on Randall’s Island after hitting his 60-day time limit that the city began giving adult migrants, which was later shortened to 30 days, before they have to leave and reapply for shelter. “They’re giving out bad information. It’s hard to talk because I’ll cry.” Men who made the trip from the East Village to Astoria spent the night at St. Margaret Mary, which had been used as a shelter for migrants over the summer. Some of them were handed Mylar rescue blankets for warmth, and photos shared with THE CITY show men laying on the ground.

Homeless people are 16 times more likely to die suddenly, San Francisco County study finds -A study led by UC San Francisco has found that people who are experiencing homelessness have a 16-fold higher rate of sudden death from heart attacks, as well as other causes.The study focused on San Francisco County, which has one of the nation's highest concentrations of homeless people. It found that the rate of sudden cardiac death was 7 times higher than the general population.Some of these deaths may have been prevented with defibrillators and other public policy measures to improve health in this vulnerable population, according to the authors.The paper published in JAMA Internal Medicine."Homeless individuals die young, at a mean age of 50 years," said corresponding and senior author Zian H. Tseng, MD, MAS, a cardiologist and professor of medicine at UCSF. "Our study sheds light into the contribution of sudden death to the homeless population. We found both cardiac and non-cardiac causes, such as overdoses and unrecognized infections, are much higher among homeless individuals dying suddenly.""These findings offer several novel insights into the profound impact of homelessness on sudden death and its underlying causes," Tseng said.Researchers tracked the autopsies of 868 people in the county who had sudden deaths. Of these, 151 were homeless.They were younger (56 years old compared to 61) and more likely to be male, with a higher prevalence of alcohol and substance use, as well as psychiatric conditions, especially schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.

Youngest children in class with ADHD as likely to keep diagnosis in adulthood as older pupils, find scientists - Children who are the youngest in their class to be identified with ADHD are just as likely to keep the diagnosis as older pupils in their year group, scientists have found.Experts from the University of Southampton and Paris Nanterre University, working with researchers worldwide, made the discovery after examining data from thousands of patients with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.In the past, scientists have questioned the validity of an ADHD diagnosis in younger pupils—arguing they receive it because they are less mature than those born towards the start of the school year.But the study, published in The Lancet Psychiatry, has revealed that children who are the youngest in the class and are diagnosed with the condition are still as likely to retain it later on as their older peers.Senior lead author Professor Samuele Cortese, a child and adolescent psychiatrist at the University of Southampton, said, "We know the youngest children in their year group are more likely to be diagnosed with ADHD—but many believe this is because they lag behind their older classmates."However, no one has ever explored if these younger children who are diagnosed with ADHD retain the diagnosis later on—until now. Our study shows for the first time that these youngsters are no more likely to lose the diagnosis over time than older children."Around 360 million people worldwide have been diagnosed with ADHD, according to the World Health Organization, with around a third under the age of 18. Symptoms include impulsiveness, disorganization, poor time management skills, difficulty focusing and restlessness.The study by Southampton and Paris Nanterre, undertaken with 161 scientists worldwide, was based on the largest data set ever created to explore the effect of month of birth on the persistence of ADHD. In total, it examined data from more than 6,500 patients globally who have been followed up for a period between the ages of four and 33 years old.Dr. Corentin Gosling, an associate professor from the University Paris Nanterre in France and visiting researcher at Southampton, was the first author on the study. He said, "Our work shows the diagnosis of ADHD in children with a young relative age is not especially unstable."However, it could not assess whether it is an appropriate diagnosis or it is because once a child receives the ADHD label, parents and teachers consider the child as having ADHD and are influenced by the diagnosis. Future studies should solve this question."

Fetterman ‘can’t believe’ Marshall resolution on school lunch ‘is even real’ - Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) took issue with a new school lunch resolution offered by fellow Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) Tuesday. The resolution, initially introduced in July by a series of senators and placed on the calendar last week, disagrees with recent guidance by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in relation to sex discrimination.“I can’t even believe that this resolution is even real. This makes it possible for some random lunch lady to deny lunch to a hungry child because she says her god tells her to. School lunch should be free, and certainly free of judgment,” Fetterman said in a statement.“Don’t we have better things to do in the upper chamber than picking on kids because of who they are?” Fetterman continued. In his own statement in July after the resolution’s introduction, Marshall said the Biden administration is “weaponizing funding for school lunch programs in an effort to force public schools to embrace Joe Biden’s transgender agenda.”“The USDA has NO authority to force our children to adhere to woke mandates such as requiring biological boys to be given access to girls bathrooms and locker rooms, or allow biological boys to compete against biological girls in girls’ sports,” Marshall said in the statement.

Functional MRI study finds correlated shifts in brain connectivity associated with overthinking in adolescents - A new study from The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and College of Medicine, University of Utah and University of Exeter (UK) substantiates previous groundbreaking research that rumination (overthinking) can be reduced through an intervention called rumination-focused cognitive behavioral therapy (RF-CBT). In addition, the use of functional MRI (fMRI) technology allowed researchers to observe correlated shifts in the brain connectivity associated with overthinking.Study findings are published online in the journalBiological Psychiatry Global Open Science."We know adolescent development is pivotal. Their brains are maturing, and habits are forming. Interventions like RF-CBT can be game-changers, steering them towards a mentally healthy adulthood. We were particularly excited that the treatment seemed developmentally appropriate and was acceptable and accessible via telehealth during the early pandemic," said corresponding author Scott Langenecker, Ph.D., vice chair of research in the Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Health at Ohio State, who started this project while at the University of Utah.RF-CBT is a promising approach pioneered by Ed Watkins, Ph.D., professor of experimental and applied Clinical Psychology at the University of Exeter. It has been shown to be effective among adults with recurrent depression."We wanted to see if we could adapt it for a younger population to prevent the ongoing burden of depressive relapse," said Rachel Jacobs, Ph.D., adjunct assistant professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at Northwestern University who conducted the pilot study in 2016."For the first time, this paper shows that the version of rumination-focused CBT we have developed at the University of Exeter leads to changes in connectivity in brain regions in adolescents with a history of depression relative to treatment as usual," Watkins said.

Dozens of states sue Instagram, Meta over harm to youth mental health -Meta is facing state-led lawsuits over allegations of knowingly designing and deploying features on its platforms that harmed young users’ mental health. A bipartisan coalition of 33 attorneys general filed a complaint Tuesday in the Northern District of California alleging Meta, the parent company of Instagram and Facebook, used deceptive and unlawful conduct in creating platforms they say are “directly contributing” to the youth mental health crisis. The District of Columbia and eight other states filed lawsuits in their own state courts, according to the New York state attorney general’s office announcement. “Meta has profited from children’s pain by intentionally designing its platforms with manipulative features that make children addicted to their platforms while lowering their self-esteem. Social media companies, including Meta, have contributed to a national youth mental health crisis and they must be held accountable,” said New York Attorney General Letitia James (D), who is leading the joint lawsuit, in a statement. The complaint alleges Meta created addictive services for young users and then deployed “harmful and psychologically manipulative product features” into the products. Features the complaint calls out as harmful include “dopamine-manipulating recommendation algorithms,” “likes” on posts, visual filter features “known to promote young users’ body dysmorphia,” and “infinite scroll” features that are “designed to discourage young users’ attempts to self-regulate and disengage with Meta’s Platforms.” The states allege Meta has “continued to deny and downplay” research about links between its platforms and psychological and physical harm, and instead published “misleading reports boasting a deceptively low incidents of user harm.” The states’ lawsuit also alleges Meta violated the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act, or COPPA, by collecting personal data of teen users without parents’ consent. A Meta spokesperson said in a statement, “We share the attorneys general’s commitment to providing teens with safe, positive experiences online, and have already introduced more than 30 tools to support teens and their families.”

Lawyers spar over possibility of workers' compensation for teacher who was shot by 6-year-old (AP) — Lawyers sparred in a Virginia courtroom Friday over whether a teacher who was shot by her 6-year-old student should get only workers’ compensation for her serious injuries.Abby Zwerner is suing Newport News Public Schools for $40 million, alleging gross negligence against school administrators. But the school board is trying to block the lawsuit, arguing that Zwerner’s injuries fall under workers’ compensation.The former first-grade teacher was hospitalized for nearly two weeks and endured multiple surgeries after a bullet struck her hand and chest. Workers’ compensation would provide up to nearly 10 years’ pay and lifetime medical benefits for physical and psychological i njuries.Zwerner attended Friday’s hearing before a judge, her left arm still supported by a sling and her left hand wrapped in a thick, cloth bandage. One of her attorneys, Kevin Biniazan, asked the judge to allow Zwerner’s lawsuit to proceed to trial because “no first-grade teacher expects to be shot at work.”“The particular danger of encountering a firearm is not in the nature of employment for a first-grade teacher,” Biniazan said.But Anne Lahren, an attorney for the school board, said the incident “falls squarely” under workers’ compensation because Zwerner was working in her capacity as a teacher. And Zwerner’s lawsuit centers on allegations of negligence at her workplace, which also fall under the law, Lahren added.

Oregon teachers authorize strike, face isolation from union bureaucracy - On Friday, the Portland Association of Teachers (PAT) announced a strike starting November 1, in response to mounting opposition among rank-and-file teachers in the largest school district in the state of Oregon. The announcement came after 93 percent of approximately 700 Portland Public School (PPS) teachers voted by 98.9 percent to authorize a strike action Thursday. Teachers have been working under an expired contract since June, and are demanding pay increases to keep up with inflation, smaller class sizes, and more resources. PPS teachers and school workers are facing drastic cuts to staff and school programs as district revenues continue to drop for the foreseeable future. A report by KOIN news revealed that, even if PPS teachers win none of their demands, the district projects a $10 million deficit in 2023-24, a $15 million deficit in 2024-25 and a $20 million deficit in 2025-26. The district announced in April that it planned to cut 90 staff. The strike authorization vote for PPS teachers comes after Portland Association of Teachers (PAT) reached an impasse with PPS last month. The last offer proposed by the district to Portland teachers included a measly 4 percent pay increase, no reduction of class sizes and no increased planning time for teachers. The district refuses to utilize its $100 million reserve fund to meet any of the teacher’s modest demands. In response, PAT is proposing a 23 percent wage increase spread out over 3 years, which means an average annual increase of 7.6 percent. Even this is inadequate considering the enormous rate of inflation, the highest since the 1980s. The union has also proposed establishing a cap to classroom sizes, the specifics of which have not been disclosed, and that the district take action for affordable housing, including offering subsidized housing for families in poverty and lobbying for new policies. Classified staff in the district rejected a contract that was accepted by the Portland Federation of School Professionals-AFT Local 111 (PFSP) bureaucracy in late September. These 1,350 teaching assistants, family service workers, administrative assistants, library assistants, physical therapists, and other staff were given a contract that offered a minimum of $20 an hour, despite 98 percent of the membership already earning slightly above this rate. At the time the tentative agreement was reached, union president John MacDuffee praised the district, stating “we applaud the Portland Public Schools’ Board of Education for responding to our members’ pleas by attempting to address the financial hardships endured by employees in this high cost of living city.” The final segment of PPS employees aiming to strike include 600 school workers in the district including cafeteria workers, custodians and nutrition service workers within Portland SEIU 503 Local 140, who have also been working without a contract since June. One cafeteria worker informed KGW8 News that most workers make less than $24,000 annually working for PPS, with many holding multiple jobs just to make ends meet. SEIU 503 Local 140 is demanding a 30-45 percent cost of living increase, which was immediately rejected by the district.

Teacher pay penalty still looms large: Trends in teacher wages and compensation through 2022, Economic Policy Institute --The trends in teacher wages and compensation through 2022. A briefing by the Economic Policy Institute. Key findings:

• The pay penalty for teachers or the gap between the weekly wages of teachers and college graduates. Those working in other professions grew to a record 26.4% in 2022. This reflects a significant increase from 6.1% in 1996.
• Teachers tend to receive better benefits packages than other professionals do. The advantage is not large enough to offset the growing wage penalty for teachers.
• On average, teachers earned 73.6 cents for every dollar other professionals made in 2022. This is much less than the 93.9 cents on the dollar they made in 1996.

Teachers have one of the most consequential jobs in the country—they have the future of the U.S. in front of them every day. But teaching is becoming a less appealing career choice for new college graduates. Not only are levels of compensation low, but teaching is becoming increasingly stressful as teachers are forced to navigate battles over curriculum and COVID-19 related mandates as well as rising incidence of violence in schools.Low pay makes recruiting and retaining highly qualified teachers difficult. A lack of well-qualified teachers means we cannot equip future tech innovators, researchers, and educators with the training they need to emerge as leaders. The downward trend in teacher pay must be reversed. Local and state politicians and community members can show respect for the profession by significantly boosting teacher pay. Targeted policy action is needed on school funding as well. State and local governments will require federal support to maintain and improve resources for schools. Finally, public-sector collective bargaining should be expanded since unions can advocate for improved job quality and a higher level of resources. Full Report can be found at the same link.

Florida orders universities to ‘deactivate’ pro-Palestinian group - — Florida’s university system chancellor, responding to a push by Gov. Ron DeSantis, directed state universities Tuesday to disband campus groups with ties to the national Students for Justice in Palestine organization, marking the first punishments handed down to colleges here amid the Israel-Hamas war. In a memo to school leaders, the state ordered a “crack down” on campus events led by the pro-Palestinian organization that the DeSantis administration claims amount to “harmful support for terrorist groups” like Hamas, which attacked Israel in early October. Florida, under Republican presidential candidate DeSantis, has staunchly supported Israel during the ongoing war and was monitoring college protests that have since ignited. “Based on the National SJP’s support of terrorism, in consultation with Governor DeSantis, the student chapters must be deactivated,” state university system Chancellor Ray Rodrigues wrote Tuesday. There are at least two Students for Justice in Palestine chapters at Florida universities facing cancellation through ties to the national organization, according to Rodrigues, who did not specify where the groups were located in the memo. The University of Florida and University of South Florida, though, both appear to have active SJP chapters. Florida is targeting the groups over a “toolkit” published by the national organization that has received growing attention from officials. Rodrigues, for his part, seized on a portion of the toolkit that labeled the attack, now known as “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” as “the resistance” and claimed that “Palestinian students in exile are PART of this movement, not in solidarity with this movement.” By linking this document to SJP branches in Florida, the state contends that the groups are violating a state law that makes it felony to “knowingly provide material support ... to a designated foreign terrorist organization.” “National SJP has affirmatively identified it is part of the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood—a terrorist led attack,” Rodrigues wrote Tuesday. Rodrigues did not spell out any specific punishment the groups or schools would face if they didn’t comply.

Cornell professor who was ‘exhilarated’ after Hamas attack takes leave of absence from university The Cornell University professor who came under fire for saying he was "exhilarated" and "energized" by the Hamas terror attacks in Israel is now on a leave of absence from the school. Russell Rickford, who taught post-Civil War African American history at the prestigious university, came under fire earlier this month after footage of him celebrating the Hamas surprise terror attack that left 1,400 dead, including women, children, and elderly civilians, went viral. "Professor Russell Rickford has requested and received approval to take a leave of absence from the university," a Cornell spokesperson told Fox News Digital. Rickford did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Rickford’s viral moment came when responded to Hamas attacks on Israel at a rally in Ithaca, New York, on October 17. "Hamas has shifted the balance of power. Hamas has punctured the illusion of its invincibility. That’s what they’ve done. You don’t have to be a Hamas supporter to recognize that. You don't have to be a Hamas supporter to recognize that. Hamas has changed the terms of debate," he said to the crowd. He proceeded to say that Hamas challenged the monopoly of violence: "It was exhilarating, it was energizing. And if it weren’t exhilarating by this challenge to the monopoly of violence – by this shifting to this balance of power – then they would not be human. I was exhilarated."

Navient says losses in CFPB case could be as high as $250 million - The student loan servicer Navient, which has been locked in a legal fight with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau since the late days of the Obama administration, may finally be nearing a settlement of the high-stakes litigation. The Wilmington, Delaware, company said Wednesday that it has recorded a $45 million contingency loss in connection with recent developments in the CFPB case. It also disclosed an aggregate range of reasonably possible losses of between $0 and $250 million. On a call with analysts, Navient CEO David Yowan said that the company is very confident in the strength of its case. But he added: "At the same time, we're open to an out-of-court settlement that's acceptable to all parties. And the accrual that we made this quarter reflects the developments to date in that matter." The CFPB has been a thorn in Navient's side since it filed suit in January 2017, if not longer. The consumer bureau first demanded documents around 2013, company officials have said. The conduct at issue in the litigation dates back to before Navient's split from SLM Corp. in 2014, at which point Navient assumed the liabilities of the predecessor company. The CFPB alleges that the student loan servicer added $4 billion in interest charges to the principal balances of borrowers who were enrolled in multiple, consecutive forbearances, and that a large portion of the charges could have been avoided if the firm had followed the law. Navient has fought the charges vigorously. In 2018, after Mick Mulvaney — an appointee of President Trump — had taken the reins at the consumer bureau, then-Navient CEO Jack Remondi publicly urged the CFPB to drop the case.

Wells Fargo ousted from Texas muni deal over energy policy probe - Wells Fargo has been dropped from underwriting a school district bond deal in Texas, the latest sign of turmoil in the state's ongoing battle with banks over their climate change policies. Raymond James is listed as the new senior manager on the $310 million bond deal for Cypress-Fairbanks Independent School District, based outside of Houston, according to people familiar with the matter who requested not to be identified because they aren't authorized to speak on the discussions. The move shows Texas governments, major issuers of municipal bonds, are wary of working with banks that state Attorney General Ken Paxton put under review last week. Paxton said he was evaluating whether the companies can comply with a Republican-backed state law that punishes firms for restricting their work with the oil-and-gas industry because of climate change concerns. A spokesperson for Wells Fargo and Jana Fuller, a spokesperson for Raymond James, declined to comment. Representatives for the Cypress-Fairbanks Independent School District didn't respond to emails and phone calls requesting comment. Paxton's office announced in a letter dated Oct. 17 that it's reviewing companies that are members or affiliate members of the Net Zero Banking Alliance and other groups of companies that have committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Wells Fargo is a member, and Raymond James is not, according to the group's website.

Nurses respond to Ohio nurse suicide, blaming her abuser: the American healthcare system- The tragic death by suicide of 28-year old emergency department nurse from Dayton, Ohio, Tristin Kate Smith, has been met with an outpouring of sympathy, grief, and anger from healthcare workers across the country. There is a widespread feeling that this was a loss of life provoked by brutal working conditions and the broken healthcare system in the United States. This was made clear in Smith’s suicide note written 5 months before her death titled, “A Letter To My Abuser.” In this letter, Smith describes an unsafe and hostile work environment that is the product of a for profit healthcare system that has, “taken my heart and slowly crushed the goodness it had. …” The letter darkly ends saying, “If I stay, I will lose my sanity—and possibly my life—forever.” This letter struck a nerve with nurses who have been understaffed for years, with many left traumatized from the devastation brought by COVID-19 waves over the last three years. Nurses frequently describe work environments filled with anxiety, fear, insecurity, and abuse, leading many to leave the profession, and in the most tragic cases, to take their own life. Many nurses and other healthcare workers are deeply invested in helping their community and the health of their patients, but in return for their commitment they are abused and exploited. Now more than ever the fight for socialized medicine must be brought forward and workers must fight to build their own democratically controlled Rank-and File committees in every hospital so that they dictate conditions and staffing. It is only through this control can the profession be significantly transformed to stop the hemorrhaging of nurses. .. Gabby, a RN of 13 years working bedside, with her last 5 years of bedside nursing being in the ER, wrote, “ I absolutely hated the toxic work environment filled with nepotism, under-staffing, bullying management, and s****y pay. I was at my last hospital for 7 years. We got $0.50 raises annually. I live in California. That was not enough to keep up with inflation. Every year, I felt more and more broke no matter how much I worked.” “It is very commonplace to get assaulted by our patients… My last straw was when I had an altercation with a patient I was trying to discharge. I was given a notoriously aggressive patient in the hallway. He was uncharacteristically calm this visit until I tried to discharge him without a prescription for narcotics. The ER docs refuse to write him any because of his known substance abuse. “When I told the patient this, he jumped out of the gurney, grabbed the chair next to him and threw it at me. I was 6 months pregnant. Nurses and EMTs jumped in. No one checked on me.” After the incident, Gabby’s director “proceeded to ask me how I could have avoided the entire situation. Basically blaming me for the patient becoming violent. This is standard protocol after patient incidents, they blame the nurses.”“I caught COVID while working and developed horrible pneumonia. I was hospitalized for a week. After this I developed PTSD and could no longer bring myself to work in the hospital. I left. I miss it so much but also have nightmares about it at the same time.”

Lung cancer cells covertly thrive in brain under guise of protection, study finds - Lung cancer cells that metastasize to the brain survive by convincing brain cells called astrocytes that they are baby neurons in need of protection, according to a study by researchers at Stanford Medicine. The cancer cells carry out their subterfuge by secreting a chemical signal prevalent in the developing human brain, the researchers found. This signal draws astrocytes to the tumor and encourages them to secrete other factors that promote the cancer cells' survival. Blocking that signal may be one way to slow or stop the growth of brain metastases of small cell lung cancer, which account for about 10% to 15% of all lung cancers, the researchers believe. Astrocytes play a critical role in maintaining nerve function and connectivity in the adult brain. They are also important during brain development, when they facilitate connections between developing neurons.Small cell lung cancer is particularly talented at metastasizing to the brain. So talented, in fact, that about 15% to 20% of people already have clusters of cancer cells in their brains when their lung tumors are first diagnosed. As the cancer progresses, about 40% to 50% of patients will develop brain metastases. The problem is so prevalent, and the clinical outcome so dire, that clinicians recommend cranial radiation even before brain metastases have been found.

We can't defeat cancer without acknowledging the differences between men and women, say scientists -- For generations, the medical community has used the "standard human"—a 70-kilogram male—to guide education, research and practice. This means that for many conditions, although the recommended type, dosage and duration of treatment may be effective for the group of males who happen to weigh close to 70 kg, they might be far from optimal for most of the population, including all females. In cancer, multiple bodily factors contribute to how the disease develops, progresses and responds to treatment, and many of these factors relate to sex. Not only do males have different sex organs to females, but they also typically have higher muscle and bone mass, a lower fat mass and a visibly different skeletal shape. Males also have a higher body water content, which, alongside differences in metabolism and fat mass, can affect how the body responds to and breaks down cancer-killing drugs. Some of these differences are due to males having one Y chromosome and one X chromosome, rather than the two X chromosomes in the female body. In fact, research suggests that genetics plays a very significant part, indicating that up to one third of the genome might be expressed differently by males and females. Females and males also have different sex hormones, and these influence the blood vessels, immune cells, signaling molecules and other features that surround tumors, known as the tumor microenvironment. For types of cancer that are dependent on or sensitive to hormones, these chemicals can promote the growth and spread of the disease. Researchers have also uncovered differences between male and female immune responses. They believe that these are typically stronger in females, who tend to clear disease-causing organisms such as bacteria more quickly from the body and be better protected by vaccinations. Conversely, females are often more susceptible to inflammatory and autoimmune conditions, some of which are associated with an increased risk of cancer.All of these differences mean that, although males are more likely than females to get cancer and to have a poor outcome, females are 34 percent more likely to experience side effects from cancer treatments, including chemotherapy, targeted therapy and immunotherapy.

Half of US states had antiviral shortages in 2022-23 flu season ---Over half of US state and territorial public health preparedness directors (PHPDs) surveyed said they experienced shortages of flu antiviral drugs such as oseltamivir (Tamiflu) during the 2022-23 respiratory virus season, forcing many to turn to national or state stockpiles, according to aresearch letter published late last week in JAMA.Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials surveyed 38 PHPDs from states, territories, and large independent metropolitan health departments from January to August 2023. The 38 PHPDs represented all 10 US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) regions, although the anonymous nature of the survey precluded identifying specific jurisdictions. In December 2022, the CDC issued a public health advisory encouraging prioritization of oseltamivir for hospitalized flu patients, as well as outpatients at increased risk for severe illness. HHS's Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response for the first time allowed jurisdictions to access Tamiflu from state, territorial, or national stockpiles. Twenty respondents (52.6%), including at least one in each HHS region, said certain formulations of oseltamivir, baloxavir, and zanamivir were in limited supply. Sixteen respondents (42.1%) said that, amid the shortages, local clinicians and public health officials promoted flu vaccination. Thirteen PHPDs (34.2%) reported flu outbreaks in long-term care facilities, with no access to oseltamivir for symptomatic residents or prevention in those exposed to the virus. Of 22 PHPDs in states or territories with stockpiles for pandemic flu, 10 (45.5%) reported obtaining stockpiled oseltamivir in response to shortages. Seven of 15 respondents (46.7%) in jurisdictions with no stockpile said they requested oseltamivir from the Strategic National Stockpile. "It is possible that local antiviral shortages were due to earlier and higher than expected influenza activity in the 2022-2023 influenza season compared with the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 influenza seasons, with consequent higher demand for oseltamivir," the study authors wrote, adding that the results highlight the need to monitor local and national antiviral supply distribution.

Signs That You May Have Already Had COVID-19 - The COVID-19 virus may have been around longer than we originally thought. So people may have had the virus and recovered from it without knowing. Some telltale signs could indicate that you’re one of those people. It’s not uncommon to get a cold during the winter. But if you had one in late 2019 or early 2020, there’s a chance your cold might have actually been COVID-19. One way to know the difference is that COVID can stick around 2 weeks or longer, while a cold typically lasts only a few days. And unlike a cold, COVID could have caused a fever and made it hard for you to breathe. This isn’t typically a symptom of a cold or the flu, but feeling like you can’t breathe is common with COVID-19. You may have thought you had bronchitis, which COVID-19 can cause. Or it may have felt like anxiety or a panic attack. But with COVID, shortness of breath lasts longer than a panic attack. It also comes with flu-like symptoms. If you had a dry cough that took a long time to go away, it could have been a symptom of COVID-19. It would have been different from a cough caused by a cold. It would have started mildly, but then got worse during the next 5 to 7 days. Throughout the pandemic, we've been told to wash our hands often and avoid touching our face. One reason for this is that COVID-19 can affect your eyes. If you had conjunctivitis (pinkeye), watering eyes, or blurred vision, it might have been caused by the virus. COVID-19 can affect your heart too. It can cause heart palpitations, making your heart beat fast or flutter, or pound. You may have had tightness in your chest. All of these things can happen even after the virus clears your body. Episodes like this can be noticeable for up to 2 weeks in mild cases or for 6 weeks in more serious ones. Feeling really tired is a common symptom of COVID-19. So if you had that kind of extreme fatigue that didn’t get better with plenty of sleep, it could have been a sign of the virus. The feeling can come back again days and sometimes weeks later. If foods and drinks seemed to taste different than usual (or had no taste), or you weren’t able to pick up on odors for a couple of weeks, you could've been infected with the virus. Nearly 80% of people who test positive have this issue, and it’s usually a sign of a mild case.

Study: Kids with COVID shed virus for median of 3 days, supporting school-isolation policies - Children who tested positive for COVID-19 in 2022 were contagious for a median of 3 days, regardless of vaccination status, suggesting that 5-day school isolation policies are sufficient amid Omicron variant predominance, University of Southern California (USC) and Stanford University researchers report today in JAMA Pediatrics. The study included 76 children aged 7 to 18 years infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Los Angeles County from April to September 2022. The researchers obtained throat swabs for culture and recorded demographic information and COVID-19 vaccination status during five visits to the children's homes over 10 days. The samples were examined in a lab for evidence of cell death, a sign of viral infectivity.The researchers noted that a previous study found that nose-throat swabs from children diagnosed as having COVID-19 were half as likely to contain culturable virus than those from adults but that none had assessed viral shedding of the Omicron variant among children over time."COVID-19 quarantine and self-isolation policies continue to interrupt education," the study authors wrote. "These policies, while typically more stringent than for routine viral illnesses, are guided by few data." Of the 76 participants, 52 (68.4%) were vaccinated, 41 (55.4%) were aged 7 to 12 years, and 38 (50.0%) were boys. The median duration of infectivity was 3 days, regardless of COVID-19 primary or booster vaccination status. Fourteen children (18.4%) were still infectious on day 5 and 3 (3.9%) remained so on day 10. A sensitivity analysis that used the date of symptom onset as the origin of observation produced similar results.The authors said that school policies requiring students with COVID-19 stay at home for 5 days are probably appropriate and that return-to-school policies may not need to consider vaccination or booster status.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant more common, tied to more severe outcomes than flu, RSV - SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infections were more common and linked to more severe outcomes than influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in emergency department (ED) patients in Sweden, especially among those unvaccinated against COVID-19.The findings were published yesterday inClinical Infectious Diseases. Karolinska Institutet researchers assessed rates of 30-day all-cause death, hospitalization, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission of adults seen in six EDs in Stockholm County for Omicron, flu, or RSV infection in 2021-2022 and 2015-2019. Of 6,385 patients in 2021-2022, 76% were infected with Omicron, 17% had flu, and 7% had RSV.In total, 22.1% of Omicron patients were unvaccinated against COVID-19 before their ED visit, while 75% had received at least two doses.Thirty-day death rates were 7.9% in the Omicron group, 2.5% in flu patients, and 6.0% in the RSV group. Omicron patients' adjusted death odds ratio (OR) was 2.36 compared with flu and 1.42 compared with RSV. Stronger links were seen in unvaccinated Omicron patients relative to flu (OR, 5.51) and RSV (OR, 3.29).Death rates at 30 days were 15% among Omicron patients aged 75 years or older, compared with 8% in the 2021-2022 flu group, 12% in the 2021-2022 RSV cohort, 7% among 5,709 prepandemic flu patients, and 9% among 955 prepandemic RSV patients. Among Omicron patients who received at least two COVID-19 vaccine doses, the OR for death was 2.00 compared with flu and 1.20 compared with RSV.Ninety-day mortality was 11% among Omicron patients, 3.7% in 2021-2022 flu patients, 8.7% in 2021-2022 RSV patients, 5.1% in the prepandemic flu group, and 9.6% in prepandemic RSV patients.In 2021-2022, 30-day mortality was 2.6% for influenza A patients; none of the 17 influenza B patients died. From 2015 to 2019, 30-day mortality was 3.2% in influenza A patients and 3.8% in influenza B patients.

Child care centers unlikely source for COVID-19 transmission, study finds -Children in child care centers are not spreading COVID-19 at significant rates to caregivers or other children at the center, nor to their households, according to a study led by University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine and UPMC Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh pediatrician-scientists and published in JAMA Network Open.The findings suggest that recommendations to test symptomatic children for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, and keep positive children home from child care for prolonged periods can be revised to align with those for other serious respiratory viruses."We need to have an open discussion at the national level about the benefit of recommending SARS-CoV-2 testing for every child with respiratory symptoms who attends a child care program," said lead author Timothy Shope, M.D., M.P.H., professor of pediatrics at Pitt's School of Medicine and pediatrician at UPMC Children's."No one wants to give up on controlling SARS-CoV-2 spread, but focusing on testing and long exclusion periods for children in child care centers appears to be unnecessary, while subjecting families to the expense of frequent testing, absence from work and lost wages, and loss of education and socialization for children."Current recommendations from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advise that any child with congestion, runny nose or other respiratory symptoms be tested for COVID-19 and, if positive, be kept home from child care for at least five days.

Severe mental illness linked to 50% increase in COVID-related death - People with severe mental illness (SMI) are at a 50% increased risk of death from all causes following COVID-19 infections, according to a study today in The British Journal of Psychiatry.The study was based on outcomes seen among 660,000 UK patients from February 2020 to April 2021, including 7,146 people with severe mental illness, such as schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and psychosis. The authors compared outcomes between cases—those with SMIs—and controls, those without. All data came from the Clinical Practice Research Database, which contains more than 60 million anonymized electronic primary care records.Following COVID-19 infection, the SMI group experienced a greater risk of death compared with controls (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.39 to 1.68)."Patients with an SMI were older than controls," the authors said. "A higher proportion of patients with an SMI who contracted COVID-19 were obese, current smokers and of Black Caribbean/Black African ethnicity, compared with the other groups, and had multimorbidity." Black people were at a 22% higher risk of death following COVID-19 infection than White people, regardless of SMI diagnosis or lack of diagnosis. In addition, while all-cause mortality decreased after the first wave of COVID-19 infections in the country (February to September 2020) for controls, rates remained steady for those with SMI. press release.

Study highlights gut fungi's lasting impact on severe COVID-19 immune response --Certain gut-dwelling fungi flourish in severe cases of COVID-19, amplifying the excessive inflammation that drives this disease while also causing long-lasting changes in the immune system, according to a new study led by investigators at Weill Cornell Medicine and NewYork-Presbyterian. This discovery identifies a group of patients who may benefit from specialized, but yet-to-be determined treatments. Utilizing patient samples and preclinical models, the research team determined that the growth offungi in the intestinal tract, particularly strains of Candida albicans yeast, trigger an upsurge inimmune cells whose actions can exacerbate lung damage. Their findings, published in Nature Immunology, also elucidate that patients retain a heightened immune response and immune memory against these fungi for up to a year after the resolution of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The research reveals a new dimension of the complex pathology unleashed by severe COVID-19, according to senior author."Severe and long COVID-19 were not thought to involve fungal blooms in the intestines that, in addition to the virus, can impact patient's immunity," he said.Dr. Iliev, an immunologist who studies the microbiome and the chronic inflammatory conditions targeting the gastrointestinal tract, pivoted to COVID-19 during the pandemic. As researchers gained a better handle on the new viral infections, it became clear that, in COVID-19 as in inflammatory bowel disease, the body's own inflammatory immune response causes harm.The team first made the connection when analysis of blood samples from patients at New York-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Medical Center diagnosed with severe COVID-19 unveiled the presence of antibodies tuned to attack fungi common to the gut. The researchers then found that populations of yeast, and one species in particular, Candida albicans, increased in the intestines of the patients during the course of severe COVID-19.When they looked at the patients' immune systems, the researchers found a parallel increase in immune cells called neutrophils. In severe COVID-19, excessive numbers of neutrophils appear in the lungs, where their activity worsens the inflammatory response already damaging these organs.Turning to preclinical models, the investigators found that mice bearing fungi from patients with severe COVID-19 produced more neutrophils in their blood and lungs, and had signs of heightened inflammation when infected with SARS-CoV-2. However, giving them an antifungal drug reduced these effects.

Intestinal fungi may worsen lung inflammation in severe COVID-19 for up to 1 year -- In severely ill COVID-19 patients, some kinds of fungi can thrive in the intestines, exacerbating the virus's characteristic inflammation and leading to an outsized immune response against the fungi for up to 1 year after infection, suggests a studypublished yesterday in Nature Immunology.Weill Cornell Medicine and New York Presbyterian researchers analyzed blood samples from patients with severe COVID-19, finding immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies against fungi commonly found in the gut and an increase in neutrophil immune cells in the lungs.They then used mouse models to confirm that fungi in the gut, especially strains of Candida albicans yeast, provoked the production of more neutrophils in the blood and lungs. The mice also had signs of inflammation when infected with SARS-CoV-2.Patient blood samples showed signs of persistent immune-system changes believed to be related to long COVID. At 1 year postinfection, the blood still contained antifungal antibodies, and stem cells that give rise to neutrophils were primed to attack fungi.The immune protein interleukin-6, induced by fungi, seemed to increase levels of both neutrophils in the lungs and fungal antibodies. The use of IL-6 blockers or antifungal drugs in patients or mice, however, reduced levels of neutrophils and fungal antibodies. Patients treated with the anti-inflammatory drug tocilizumab saw sustained reductions in IgG antibodies against both C albicans and neutrophil progenitors."Severe and long COVID-19 were not thought to involve fungal blooms in the intestines that, in addition to the virus, can impact patient’s immunity," senior author Iliyan Iliev, PhD, of Weill Cornell Medicine, said in a college news release.

Study highlights potential role of statin drug in critical COVID-19 cases - Simvastatin, the widely available statin drug used to treat high cholesterol and triglyceride levels, has a 96% probability of improving outcomes for critically ill COVID-19 patients and a 92% chance of improving survival at 3 months, according tonew results from the ongoing Randomized Embedded Multifactorial Adaptive Platform for Community Acquired Pneumonia (REMAP-CAP) trial. The global trial began in March 2020 and is ongoing. The goal of the multicenter, international trial is to see how and if different known treatments, including essential medicines, could aid COVID-19 patients.Previously, simvastatin had been shown to reduce pulmonary and systemic inflammation in mouse and human models of lung injury, suggesting possible use in acute respiratory distress syndrome seen in critically ill and hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The study was published yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine. All trial participants received 80 mg daily of simvastatin, and outcomes were compared to controls who were not receiving statins at baseline. Simvastatin was continued until the time of first intensive care unit discharge or day 28, whichever came first, the authors said.The trial began in October 2020, but stopped on January 8, 2023, because of decreasing cases. In total, 2,739 critically ill patients and 187 noncritically ill patients were enrolled at 141 sites across 13 countries. At the beginning of the trial, all but two enrollees were receiving respiratory support, including 34.7% on mechanical ventilation, 31.4% on high-flow oxygen, and 33.8% on noninvasive mechanical ventilation. Among the simvastatin group, 73.4% survived to hospital discharge, compared to 70% of controls, an adjusted odds ratio of 1.04 (95% credible interval, 0.85 to 1.27) with a 64.4% posterior probability of superiority of simvastatin to control. "We found a 95.9% probability that the initiation of simvastatin therapy was superior to standard care with respect to the primary outcome, a composite of organ support–free days and death, among critically ill patients with Covid-19,” the authors wrote. "This probability did not meet the prespecified 99% threshold. Although the 95.9% posterior probability of efficacy is high, the trial was stopped for operational futility before reaching a prespecified stopping trigger." In a press release on the study, the lead investigator said even though the trial ended, the researchers noted positive results.

Convalescent plasma cuts death by 10% in COVID patients on mechanical ventilation, trial finds -A randomized clinical trial in Belgium finds that convalescent plasma reduces death rates by about 10% in COVID-19 patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation.University of Liege researchers led the open-label study involving 17 intensive care units (ICUs) in Belgium from October 2020 to March 2022, largely pre-Omicron strain. The results were published today in the New England Journal of Medicine.A total of 475 COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) were enrolled in the study, with 237 receiving convalescent plasma within 5 days after initiation of mechanical ventilation and 238 receiving standard care.Owing to a shortage of convalescent plasma, ICUs had access to plasma with high levels of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (1:320) for 82.3% of patients, and the remaining 17% received plasma with a concentration of 1:160. Nearly all patients (98.1%) received glucocorticoids. SARS-CoV-2 antibody-rich convalescent plasma is taken from donors recovering from COVID-19 infection and given to currently ill patients as a means of passive immunization.

Study: COVID vaccine during pregnancy lowers risk of poor infant outcomes --The infants of pregnant women given at least one mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose during pregnancy were at lower risk for poor outcomes, newborn death, and neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission, finds a new study from Canada in JAMA Pediatrics.A University of Toronto–led research team evaluated linked health records from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES) on 142,006 live births in Ontario in which the mother was vaccinated against COVID-19 in pregnancy. Singleton deliveries expected from May 2021 to September 2022 were included. A total of 60% of infants were exposed to COVID-19 vaccines in utero."Pregnant women have an increased risk of severe COVID-19 compared with their nonpregnant counterparts, and COVID-19 during pregnancy has been associated with fetal and neonatal morbidity and mortality," the study authors wrote. "Vaccination is routinely recommended to protect pregnant women and their newborns from acute respiratory tract infections, such as influenza and pertussis, and pregnant women are designated a priority group for COVID-19 vaccination in multiple countries."Yet, despite having been demonstrated as safe and protective for both women and their newborns, COVID-19 vaccine uptake has been lower among pregnant women than nonpregnant women in many regions, particularly among younger women and those living in areas with lower socioeconomic status, the authors added.

Study finds high prevalence of drug interactions in adults taking Paxlovid - Adults who were treated with nirmatrelvir–ritonavir (Paxlovid) for their COVID infections in an outpatient setting during the earlier Omicron variant months had a high prevalence of drug-drug interactions (DDIs), Canadian researchers reported yesterday in PLOS One. In its clinical guidance, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) urges healthcare providers to be aware of Paxlovid eligibility criteria and the potential for drug interactions. The drug carries a boxed warning about significant drug interactions. Treatment guidelines from the National Institutes of Health urge clinicians to carefully review patients’ medications but adds that many commonly used drugs can be safety administered, despite the interaction potential. For the study, the investigators assessed 637 consecutive patients who were prescribed Paxlovid at a Toronto clinic between March 3, 2022, and September 20, 2022. The median age was 70, and the median number of risk factors for severe disease was two, with 45% having immunocompromising conditions. The vast majority (82%) of patients had received at least three COVID vaccine doses. About 95% of the patients completed their 5-day Paxlovid course, with 68% reporting full symptom resolution by 28 days. Sixty (11%) of the patients had rebound symptoms. Only 3.3% of patients were hospitalized, with 1.2% linked to COVID. No known deaths were reported. The median number of concurrent medications was seven. Researchers found that 70% had at least one DDI, which increased to 82% in patients ages 70 and older. Most DDIs required clinical intervention, with most needing assistance from a pharmacist.The most common drugs involved with the DDI events were cardiovascular drugs and those for benign prostatic hyperplasia, followed by central nervous system drugs and oral antithrombotic agents. The researchers also found a high rate of adverse drug events, at 62%, though they pointed out that effects didn’t usually prompt patients to stop Paxlovid treatment. The most common ones were a persistent bad taste in the mouth (dysgeusia) and diarrhea.

Research shows small reduction in long COVID with antiviral use -Today in JAMA Internal Medicine researchers from the National Library of Medicine and the National Institutes of Health describe a small reduction in post-COVID condition (PCC or long COVID) among US adults ages 65 and older who were treated with either the antiviral drug nirmatrelvir (Paxlovid) or molnupiravir (Lagevrio).The studies were based on Medicare enrollees diagnosed as having COVID-19 from January to September 2022. Prescription of nirmatrelvir or molnupiravir was considered to be indicative of COVID-19 infection, as at-home testing was widely available during the study period.PCC was defined as any new occurrence (not present prior to COVID-19 diagnosis) of 11 noted symptoms from 4 to 12 weeks after infection, including fatigue, difficulty breathing, heart palpitations, and memory problems. In a cohort of 313,262 participants, 51,658 took nirmatrelvir during acute infection, and 8,089 took molnupiravir. PCC incidence was 11.8% among patients receiving nirmatrelvir, 13.7% for molnupiravir, and 14.5% for neither. The absolute risk reduction was 2.7% for nirmatrelvir and 0.8% for molnupiravir.The effect was smaller among females, Asian, Black, and Hispanic race, and patients with lower incomes. The hazard ratio for females compared to males was 0.89 compared to 0.84 for nirmatrelvir, and 0.95 compared to 0.88 for molnupiravir."The current approved use of the 2 drugs is for the prevention of severe acute COVID-19," the authors wrote. "Our findings suggest that they may also have a role in preventing PCC." Notably, the authors said vaccination status was not included in any final analysis. Though the study showed a smaller benefit to the approved antivirals than previous studies, it is one of the largest studies to look at the effect of the drugs on PCC.

COVID-19 that confines you to bed for several days most likely to lead to long COVID, study finds - Today in The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, a group of multinational researchers conclude that most Scandinavians who have long-COVID symptoms at 2 years had severe infections. The observational study, led by Tongji University in China, compared the prevalence of 15 physical symptoms, assessed using the 15-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-15) among 64,880 adults with or without a COVID-19 diagnosis from Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden from April 2020 to August 2022. Participants were from four cohorts in the COVIDMENT Consortium. During up to 27 months of follow-up, 22,382 of 64,880 participants (34.5%) tested positive for COVID-19, and less than 1% were hospitalized. Relative to uninfected adults, those with COVID-19 had a 37% higher rate of severe physical symptoms (PHQ-15 score, 15 or higher; adjusted prevalence ratio [PR]).The 9.6% of COVID-19 survivors who were bedridden for at least 7 days had the highest prevalence of symptoms (PR, 2.25), while those never bedridden had similar rates to uninfected participants (PR, 0.92). A higher prevalence was also noted in those hospitalized for their infections 2 to 22 months after diagnosis. The prevalence of symptoms was significantly elevated among COVID-19 survivors for 8 of the 15 measured symptoms, including shortness of breath (PR, 2.15), dizziness (1.58), rapid heartbeat (1.55), headache (1.38), chest pain (1.34), back pain (1.10), low energy/fatigue (1.08), and sleep problems (1.04).Most participants had been partially or fully vaccinated against COVID-19, and the findings were comparable in analyses limited to vaccinated people. Symptoms were more prevalent among participants without depression or anxiety, which the study authors said indicates that the link between severe COVID-19 and the risks of long-term physical symptoms may be independent of mental symptoms."Long COVID has grown into a major public health problem since a large proportion of the global population has been infected," co-first author Emily Joyce, a doctoral student at Karolinska Institutet, said in an institute news release. "Our results show the long-term health consequences of the pandemic and highlight the importance of monitoring physical symptoms for up to two years after diagnosis, especially in people who experienced severe COVID-19."

Study finds no signs of ongoing infection, brain damage in long-COVID patients -Two new studies spotlight long COVID, with one finding no evidence of ongoing infection or brain damage among patients with persistent symptoms, and the other finding that COVID-19 patients had more than double the risk of shortness of breath and memory loss than uninfected participants more than 3 months after infection. For the first study, researchers from the University of Gothenburg in Sweden and Meso Scale Diagnostics in Maryland clinically examined and interviewed 31 adults (25 diagnosed as having neurocognitive long COVID (or PCC, post-COVID condition), 6 fully recovered from COVID-19, and 17 uninfected controls) 3 or more months after COVID-19 diagnosis from March 2020 to May 2021.Participants completed symptom questionnaires and underwent lumbar puncture and venipuncture for analysis of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers of immune activation, antigens, and neuronal injury.The study was published this week in The Journal of Infectious Diseases.Long-COVID patients most often reported fatigue (80%), memory loss or impaired concentration (64%), and brain fog (28%). The rate of receipt of one or more COVID vaccine doses before sampling was 56% in long-COVID participants, 50% in COVID-19 controls, and 53% in healthy controls.There were no significant differences in the blood or CSF of immune activation or brain injury biomarkers."We found no evidence of ongoing viral replication, immune activation, or CNS injury in plasma or CSF in patients with neurocognitive PCC compared with COVID-19 controls or healthy volunteers," the study authors wrote."The results suggest that the condition is more likely a consequence of events that occur during the acute phase of COVID-19, rather than an ongoing viral infection or persistent inflammation of the central nervous system," first author Nelly Kanberg, a doctoral student at the University of Gothenburg, said in a universitynews release.

US, global COVID-19 markers show declines -COVID-19 activity in the United States last week showed more signs of declines, though deaths were up, and the World Health Organization's (WHO's) monthly snapshot of global activity suggests decreased activity, though the group cautioned that few countries are reporting data. Of the two main severity indicators, hospitalizations last week declined by 0.2%, with some counties in the moderate range—especially in Montana—and a few counties listed as high, mainly in the central part of the country, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in its weekly data updates. Deaths rose 12.5% compared to the week before, with the percentage of deaths from COVID highest in North Carolina, at 4%, compared to 2.7% for the nation as a whole.Early indicators also declined. Emergency department visits dropped 4.6% compared to the week before, and New Mexico is the only state currently at the moderate level. Test positivity last week declined by 0.7% and is at 8.7% nationally, with levels higher in the Southwest and Midwest than in the rest of the United States.In its updated variant proportion estimates today, the CDC said the HV.1 Omicron subvariant—which descends from EG.5.1—increased to 25.2%, with the EG.5 level at 21.9%. Meanwhile, FL.1.5.1 held steady at about 12%, while the proportion of HK.3, another descendant of EG.5.1, rose from 4.1% to 7.5% over the past 2 weeks.At the regional level, variant proportions weren’t listed for the south-central states and other areas, but levels of HV.1 were similar for all the regions that reported.Over the past 28 days, cases have declined 42% worldwide, with deaths down 43%, the WHO said today in itsmonthly update. It emphasized, however, that only 93 countries reported cases and 38 reported deaths. The agency added that trends should be interpreted with caution because of reporting delays and reduced testing and sequencing.Some countries continue to report high burdens, including rises in hospitalization and deaths, which the WHO said may be more reliable indicators.That being said, cases rose slightly in two WHO regions, Europe and Southeast Asia. Deaths were up in the Eastern Mediterranean region, as well as Southeast Asia, mainly due to retrospective reporting from India.Of 29 countries that regularly report hospitalization data, 16 reported rises of 20% or more over the past month, with the five biggest increases from Saint Lucia, Chile, Bolivia, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. And of 22 countries that regularly report intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, 13 noted increases of 20% or more, with the highest gains in Brazil.The WHO added that the proportion of hospitalized COVID patients who have needed ICU admission has been decreasing since July 2021, when the ratio was 0.25. The level has declined to around 0.05 since the beginning of 2023.

Estimating hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infections in England --An estimated 95,000–167,000 inpatients at English National Health Service (NHS) hospitals caught SARS-CoV-2 while in hospital during England's "second wave" of COVID-19, between June 2020 and March 2021, reports a paper, "The burden and dynamics of hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 in England," published in Nature.The findings reveal the scale of hospitaltransmissions and highlight contributing factors, such as a limited number of single rooms.Researchers from the Center for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Big Data Institute, Pandemic Sciences Institute at Oxford's Nuffield Department of Medicine, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Lancaster University, Utrecht University, and the UK Health Security Agency collaborated on this study.Hospital transmission of SARS-CoV-2 puts vulnerable people at risk, affects health care workers and potentially drives community transmission. .Between 10 June 2020 and 17 February 2021, a total of 16,950 and 19,355 SARS-CoV-2 infections in hospital inpatients were classified as having either definite or probable health care-associated infections, respectively.The authors estimate that the definitions used to classify hospital-acquired infections may only capture around 26% of such infections (for example, many patients may be discharged before testing positive). Thus, they combine the reported infection numbers with estimates of the proportion of infections not captured by the classification system in use during the study period.These calculations result in estimates of hospital-acquired infections that range from 95,000 to 167,000 (which would mean that 1–2% of all hospital admissions resulted in such an infection) over the study period.

1 in 20 UK long-COVID patients still reported symptoms at 1 year -Adult long-COVID patients in England reported worse mental health and related quality of life than those who were never infected or recovered from their infections, suggests a studyyesterday in Nature Communications.Imperial College London researchers analyzed self-reported mental health and quality of life among 276,840 participants from August to December 2022.The team also used data from a follow-up survey of participants in the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-2 study, which included six rounds of random samples of the population to evaluate community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in England.Overall, 59.1% of participants had tested positive for COVID-19. Symptoms among 130,251 respondents lasted for, on average, 5.4 weeks (range, 1 day to 3 years). In total, 7.5% and 5.2% reported symptoms for at least 12 weeks (long COVID) and 52 weeks or longer (very long COVID), respectively.Risk factors for long or very long COVID included female sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.42 and 1.49, respectively), having at least one underlying condition (aOR, 1.31 and 1.52), and moderate or severe COVID-19 (aOR, 1.76 and 1.47).The probability of long COVID and very long COVID was lower in Asian than in White people (aOR, 0.80 and 0.71, respectively) and in those infected during the Alpha (aOR, 0.60 and 0.59), Delta (OR, 0.38 and 0.32), or Omicron waves (OR, 0.12 for long COVID; insufficient follow-up time for very long COVID) than in those with wild-type infections.The most common ongoing symptoms were mild fatigue (66.9%), difficulty thinking or concentrating (54.9%), and joint pain (54.6%). The greatest difference in symptom prevalence between those with ongoing symptoms and other participants were for altered smell (aOR, 9.31) or taste (aOR, 8.47), shortness of breath (aOR, 6.69), severe fatigue (aOR, 6.19), difficulty thinking or concentrating (aOR, 4.97), chest tightness or pain (aOR, 4.71), and memory loss (aOR, 4.40).

Major study gives new insights into lasting impacts of COVID-19 on UK population --Tens of thousands of people in England may have lasting symptoms from COVID-19 more than a year after infection, new analysis reveals.The findings come from a representative sample of more than a quarter of a million people in England surveyed as part of the REACT study, who self-reported their symptoms and the impact of COVID-19 on their health and quality of life, and have been published in the journalNature Communications.The work, led by researchers at Imperial College London, finds that while the vast majority of people recovered from infection within two weeks, a significant proportion of the group (7.5%) reported persistent symptoms lasting 12 weeks or more (long COVID), and 5% reported symptoms lasting more than a year.The most common lasting symptoms were mild fatigue, difficulty thinking or concentrating and joint pains. But other persistent symptoms reported included loss or change of sense of smell or taste, shortness of breath, severe fatigue, chest tightness or pain, and poor memory.People were more likely to report symptoms for a long time after their initial infection if they were female, had severe initial symptoms, were infected earlier in the pandemic, or had pre-existing health conditions.Some of these symptoms were also quite often reported by people who did not have previous COVID-19. However, mental health and health-related quality of life were worse among participants with ongoing persistent symptoms post-COVID compared with those who had never had COVID-19 or had recovered.According to the researchers, the analysis provides a snapshot of the continued impact of COVID-19 in the UK. They highlight that while SARS-CoV-2 infections are typically short duration, a significant proportion of adults will continue to experience persistent illness (Long COVID) that in some cases may last for over a year or more. But they highlight that a sizeable proportion still fully recover after a prolonged period.

CDC reports slight flu rise - Flu activity in the United States is low and remains well below baselines, but some parts of the country are experiencing slight rises, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latestweekly update. The percentage of respiratory specimens that tested positive for flu at clinical labs rose last week in region 8, which includes Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. Levels remained stable in other parts of the country.Hospitalizations for flu also remain low but increased slightly in four regions that include states in roughly the southeast and west.Of the few samples that were positive for flu at public health labs last week, 78% were influenza A, and of subtyped samples, nearly 94% were the 2009 H1N1 virus. No pediatric flu deaths have been reported for the current season, but the CDC reported one more for the 2022-2023 season, which was reported during the week ending September 30 and involved H1N1, putting that total at 179.

ECDC: Chicken source suspected in multicountry Salmonella outbreak - A multicountry Salmonella enteritidis ST11 outbreak linked to chicken and chicken kebab products since January has sickened at least 335 people from 14 European Union countries, the United Kingdom, and the United States, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) announced today. In early June, Danish officials identified an illness cluster linked to eating chicken, followed by reports of illnesses from other European countries with samples that matched the Danish strain. In late July, Denmark identified a distinct strain, also linked to chicken consumption, followed by reports of a matching strain isolated from several other European countries.In early August, Austria reported a cluster of related infections involving another distinct strain, including a report of a patient who had consumed a chicken kebab before he or she got sick. In the following weeks, other European countries reported illnesses involving the same strain.There was only one case from the United States, which was part of the second cluster and involved a patient who had eaten chicken in Spain.The trace-back investigation suggests that seven producers in Poland and one in Austria may have sourced the products, but microbiologic tests haven’t turned up the outbreak strain at the facilities.In a rapid risk assessment, the ECDC and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) said the cases belong to three distinct microbiologic clusters. Nine people were hospitalized, and one death was reported in Austria. Officials in Austria, Denmark, and Italy tested 10 food products, finding contamination with the outbreak strain in 6, which included contaminated chicken kebabs.The ECDC said more investigations are needed to identify the source of the infections, and it warned that further cases are likely in the prolonged multicountry outbreak.

French researchers report emergence of highly resistant Klebsiella strain --A study published late last week in Eurosurveillance describes the identification and rapid growth of a highly resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae strain in France. The strain was identified from an analysis of clinical and screening specimens received by the French National Reference Center for Antibiotic Resistance (NRC) from June 2014 to June 2022. Of the 431 isolates ofK pneumoniae sequence type (ST)147, which has been identified as a major public health threat owing to its high level of antibiotic resistance and increased virulence, 37 were non-duplicate New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase (NDM)-14–producers.The isolates were cultured from rectal swabs, urine samples, blood draws, respiratory tract samples, and wounds.Although many other NDM variants, such as NDM-1 and NDM-5, were commonly found among the carbapenemase-producing K pneumoniae isolates over the study period, the first 6 NDM-14–producers appeared at NRC in 2021, with 31 collected in 2022.Whole-genome sequencing revealed that all the NDM-14­–producing isolates were closely related, part of the same cluster, and were associated with several hospital outbreaks in which the index patient was directly repatriated from Morocco, particularly the Casablanca region. Bayesian analysis estimated that the first NDM-14–producing K pneumoniae strain appeared in the country in 2020 and has rapidly evolved since then, with NDM-14 accounting for 41.3% of carbapenemases in K pneumoniae ST147 isolated collected by NRC in 2022.Antimicrobial susceptibility testing showed that all NDM-14–producing isolates were highly resistant to all antimicrobials tested except colistin, cefiderocol, and the combination of aztreonam/avibactam, and 37 of 39 isolates possessed a high virulence score."Highly resistant NDM-14 producing K. pneumoniae can rapidly spread in healthcare settings," the study authors wrote. "Surveillance and t horough investigations of hospital outbreaks are critical to evaluate and limit the dissemination of this clone."

WHO recommends interventions for 'people-centered' approach to antimicrobial resistance -- The World Health Organization (WHO) late last week released a package of recommended interventions to help countries address antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in the human health sector. Based on a review of evidence and multidisciplinary expert option, the document outlines a people-centered approach that aims to address the challenges and barriers that people face when they use healthcare services to prevent, diagnose, and treat drug-resistant infections. The WHO says the first objectives of this approach, which it wants countries to prioritize when developing and implementing national AMR action plans, is to shift the AMR narrative away from a solely biological phenomenon toward a people-centered narrative."The 13 core interventions and accompanying priority actions are designed to address AMR in a programmatic manner that puts people, their needs and equitable access to health services at the centre of the AMR response in the community, in primary care, secondary and tertiary care, and at national and/or subnational level," the document states.While more than 170 countries have developed national AMR action plans, the WHO notes the implementation of these plans in the human health sector has been "fragmented and siloed," and that greater political commitment and funding is needed. In the latest WHO tracking survey, only 28% of countries reported that they are implementing and monitoring their action plans. Among the 13 proposed interventions, 5 are associated with what the WHO calls the "foundational steps" of effective governance, awareness, and education. They include AMR advocacy and accountability in the human health sector in collaboration with the government and other sectors, raising awareness about AMR and providing education for the public and healthcare workers, developing a national AMR and antimicrobial use surveillance strategy and using the data to guide patient care, and developing a national AMR research agenda. Interventions categorized under the pillar of prevention include ensuring universal access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene; implementing WHO core components for infection prevention and control; and providing access to vaccines and expanded immunization.

The term 'antimicrobial resistance' has little meaning to the public and should be renamed, says study - The public is failing to take antimicrobial resistance seriously and it could all be down to the scientific terminology used. A study by Dr. Eva Krockow from the University of Leicester, which looked at public health communication shows that the term commonly used to describe bacteria resistant to current medicines or antibiotics (Antimicrobial resistance or AMR) is not taken seriously enough and therefore fails to stick in people's memories. An estimated 4.95 million deaths were associated with AMR in 2019 and this global health care threat is predicted to increase, eventually making it impossible to treat even common infections.Dr. Krockow is a lecturer and lead of the Health and Wellbeing (with Ageing) Research Group in the School of Psychology and Vision Sciences. Her study, which has been published inCommunications Medicine, says that health care campaigns must urgently increase public awareness around this important issue but instead are "inconsistent, abstract, and the language used often difficult to pronounce."Her study looked at word memorability and risk association for the most frequently used terms to describe AMR. These were: "antimicrobial resistance" and five commonly used variants including "AMR," "antibiotic resistance," "bacterial resistance," "drug-resistant infections" and "superbugs." In addition, the study added 34 other health risk terms, such as "cancer" and "heart disease."Some 237 participants from the US and 924 from the UK were tested on memory for and risk they associated with each term on a scale ranging from very safe to harmful or very risky. They were also asked to consider pronounceability and familiarity alongside other linguistic attributes.Results showed that "AMR" and "antimicrobial resistance" were among the lowest-scoring terms out of the 40 for both risk association and memorability and therefore unsuitable for public health communication. However, the terms "antibiotic resistance" and to a lesser extent "drug-resistant infections" performed better.Dr. Krockow said, "It's imperative that if we're to protect modern medicine and conserve existing medication for future generations, we reduce antibiotic use internationally. To do so we need effective public health campaigns that encourage behavior change. Our study highlights the need to rename AMR to a memorable term that's fit for the wider public and not just those from the medical or scientific communities."

Certain per- and polyfluoroalkyl 'forever chemicals' identified as potential risk factor for thyroid cancer --Mount Sinai researchers have discovered a link between certain per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and an increased risk for thyroid cancer, according to a study published in eBioMedicine today.PFAS, also known as "forever chemicals," are a large, complex group of synthetic chemicals that can migrate into the soil, water, and air. Due to their strong carbon-fluorine bond, these chemicals do not degrade easily in the environment. Forever chemicals been used inconsumer products around the world since the 1940s, including nonstick cookware, water-repellent clothing, stain-resistant fabrics, and other products that resist grease, water, and oil.Multiple national and international institutions, including the European Parliament and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), have declared PFAS exposure a health crisis. This study supports the actions needed to regulate and remove these chemicals from potential exposure routes. Although PFAS exposure has been identified as a potential contributor to recent increases in thyroidcancer, limited studies have investigated the association between PFAS exposure and thyroid cancer in human populations."With the substantial increase of thyroid cancer worldwide over recent decades, we wanted to dive into the potential environmental factors that could be the cause for this rise. This led us to the finding that PFAS, 'forever chemicals,' may at least partially explain the rise of thyroid cancer and are an area we should continue to study further," said co-corresponding author Maaike van Gerwen, MD, Ph.D., Assistant Professor and Director of Research for the Department of Otolaryngology–Head and Neck Surgery, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. "Thyroid cancer risk from PFAS exposure is a global concern given the prevalence of PFAS exposure in our world. This study provides critical evidence to support large-scale studies further exploring the effect of PFAS exposure on the thyroid gland," Dr. van Gerwen added.

What happened to the EPA investigation into Louisiana's 'Cancer Alley'? - The podcast Sea Change from WWNO and WRKF, looks at the EPA investigation into whether Louisiana discriminated against Black communities living in the 85-mile-long corridor known as "Cancer Alley." (which the EPA dropped)

New study identifies common physical features in babies born to mothers who used fentanyl - Babies born to mothers who used fentanyl during pregnancy displayed similar facial and musculoskeletal abnormalities that suggest the emergence of a novel syndrome, according to research published in the journal Genetics in Medicine Open. In the summer of 2022, a genetic counselor and a group of physicians at Nemours Children's Hospital, Delaware, noticed that several infants who were referred by local neonatal intensive care units or brought to the hospital for feeding difficulties shortly after birth had similar facial features and multiple physical abnormalities, explained senior author Karen W. Gripp, MD, Chief of the Division of Medical Genetics at Nemours Children's Health, Delaware Valley.Gripp and colleagues enrolled six Nemours patients in a study to further assess their symptoms and characteristics. Four infants from other institutions were added later.Gripp said the infants all had small heads, short stature, and distinctive facial features. Multiple infants had cleft palate, "rocker bottom" feet, and malformed genital organs. Other common features included short, broad thumbs, a single palmar crease, and fused toes.Genetic testing ruled out certain suspected diagnoses, including Smith-Lemli-Opitz syndrome, a rare genetic condition. Facial feature analysis using the GestaltMatcher algorithm (FDNA Inc.) suggested that the patients did not have fetal alcohol syndrome. By ruling out these two syndromes and confirming that all the mothers had used fentanyl during pregnancy, researchers began to suspect a novel syndrome, Gripp explained.Fentanyl is a powerful opioid which has been proven to cross the placenta and cause birth defects. Gripp said that while all the mothers of infants in this study said they had used fentanyl during pregnancy, the researchers had limited information on when they had used the drug, and in what amounts. Gripp cautioned that further research will be necessary to determine whether fentanyl caused the abnormalities, or whether the symptoms developed due to a contaminant or another drug used at the same time.

Quick takes: Mpox rise in Europe, dengue antiviral trial, polio in 5 nations | CIDRAP

• Global mpox cases in September declined 16% compared the previous month, but illnesses were up significantly in Europe, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in its latest update. Most of the cases in Europe were reported from Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The Western Pacific region is still reporting the highest numbers of cases, led by cases in China, though levels there declined in September, the WHO said. The group added that it is now posting the updates monthly, and it urged caution in interpreting the trends during the transition in reporting.
• Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies, part of Johnson and Johnson, today announced promising findings in a phase 2a human challenge trial of its oral antiviral for preventing dengue infection. The compound, called JNJ-1802, prompted antiviral activity against dengue serotype 3. Scientists detailed the findings this week at the annual meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene in Chicago. Researchers have advanced the trial to a community-based field study to assess the efficacy against dengue in study participants in more than 30 countries.
• Five countries reported more polio cases this week, all involving vaccine-derived strains, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) said in its latest weekly update. The Central African Republic, Ivory Coast, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Mali, and Yemen reported more circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) cases. Also, the DRC reported three more cases involving circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 1 (cVDPV1).

California reports its first local dengue case The public health department in Pasadena, California, reporteda locally acquired dengue case, the state’s first, though the virus hasn’t yet been identified in local mosquito populations. In a statement late last week, officials said the Pasadena resident hadn’t traveled outside of the United States. The health department said the risk remains very low. The Pasadena Public Health Department is conducting surveillance and has visited a neighborhood in Pasadena to offer residents information about reducing mosquito-breeding sites around their homes and avoiding mosquito bites. The San Gabriel Valley Mosquito and Vector Control District has deployed traps to better gauge the mosquito population, with more testing planned from additional traps in the weeks ahead.Officials said that although Aedes mosquito populations are typically found in Pasadena, dengue virus is not endemic in California. Parveen Kaur, MD, interim health officer, said Pasadena officials are also working with local health providers to raise awareness about dengue symptoms, which can include fever, nausea, vomiting, rash, and body aches.Local dengue infections on the US mainland are very rare. People who contract the virus in locations where the virus is endemic can introduce the virus to local mosquito populations. Florida is the only state that regularly reports sporadic local cases. So far this year, Florida has reported 68 cases, most of them in Miami-Dade County.Earlier this year, a few states reported local malaria cases, another mosquito-borne disease that is also very rare in the continental United States. They are Florida, Texas, Maryland, and Arkansas.

Analysis suggests climate change, population growth could supercharge malaria risk -- An analysis published by the Washington Post yesterday, based on modeling projections and the situation unfolding in Mozambique, suggests that climate change and demographic growth could put 5 billion more people at risk for malaria by 2040.The analysis said longer transmission seasons and migration of mosquitoes to new latitudes threaten to undo years of progress. The new report also said Mozambique and other countries with highest malaria burden also have some of the world’s fastest-growing populations.Of the 5 billion more people expected to be at higher risk in 2040, 1 billion are in Africa. The Postalso estimates that 330 million people in South America could be at risk by 2070. The report notes that changing climate patterns not only encourage mosquito habitats, but also make it difficult to time control measures, such as indoor spraying.The report provided detailed projections for different regions. In the United States, for example, warming temperatures and increased rainfall could lengthen malaria transmission seasons in some areas of the South, posing a threat where there is no population immunity—factors that could lead to higher morbidity and mortality.

Avian flu strikes more turkey farms in the Midwest -- Minnesota and South Dakota reported more highly pathogenic avian flu outbreaks on turkey farms, and Iowa reported its first outbreak—also at a turkey farm—since March, according to notifications from federal and state agriculture agencies. Minnesota reported two new outbreaks at commercial turkey producers, this time in Blue Earth and Redwood counties, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA)Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). Also, the state reported an outbreak on a poultry breeding farm in Becker County. As part of a recent small but steady uptick in outbreaks nationally, Minnesota has reported six outbreaks on commercial farms since early October. South Dakota reported an outbreak at a turkey farm in Spink County, its fourth of the month. Also, the Iowa State Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship announced on October 20 that high-path avian flu has been confirmed on a commercial turkey farm in Buena Vista County. In other developments, Montana and Oregon reported outbreaks in poultry flocks, Oregon in Union County and Montana in Park County, apparently involving backyard birds, according to APHIS. Since early 2022, the outbreaks have led to a record loss of 59.4 million birds across 47 states, including 10 over the past 30 days.

Quick takes: Slight US flu rise, more global polio, avian flu strikes more US poultry | CIDRAP

• US flu indicators showed more slight rises last week, though levels are still below baselines, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latest update. The percentage of outpatient visits for flulike illnesses increased slightly, to 2.5%, but is still below the 2.9% baseline. Increases in hospitalizations were noted in six regions, but with levels stable in the Midwest, Northwest, and Northeast. Test positivity increased in the South and West, with influenza A making up 71.6% samples at clinical labs, mostly the 2009 H1N1 strain.
• Four countries reported more polio cases this week, including Pakistan, which reported another wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) case, bringing its total for the year to four, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative said in its latest weekly update. Three African nations reported more vaccine-derived cases, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Madagascar, with more circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 1 (cVDPV1) cases, and Kenya, with another circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) case.
• Highly pathogenic avian flu outbreaks struck more commercial turkey farms in four states—California, Minnesota, South Dakota, and Iowa—according to the latest notifications from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). Also, more outbreaks in backyard flocks were reported in Iowa, Oregon, and Minnesota. The events are part of an increase in avian flu activity that began in early October. In international developments, Bulgaria reported two H5N1 outbreaks on large poultry farms, Romania reported a detection involving backyard birds, and Mexicoreported the virus in a healthy wild duck from a wetland in Jalisco state that was tested as part of surveillance, according to notifications from the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH).

High-path avian flu spreads to Antarctic region -As feared in recent months, the highly pathogenic avian flu that continues to spread in several world regions has been confirmed for the first time in the Antarctic, British scientists reported yesterday.The virus was found during sampling of sick and dead brown skuas found on Bird Island off the coast of South Georgia, situated in the South Atlantic Ocean east of Argentina’s Falkland Islands and north of Antarctica’s mainland. Brown skuas are large seabirds that breed in subantarctic and Antarctic zones, moving farther north when not breeding. The tests results were announced yesterday by the British Antarctic Survey, which operates two research stations on South Georgia, including one on Bird Island. The group said the avian flu detections prompted a halt to most field work that involved animal handling. Biosecurity measures remain in place, and monitoring remains under way for areas where wildlife density is high.It’s not clear how the virus will affect wildlife in South Georgia, given the variable transmission and mortality patterns, the survey said. It said the source of the virus in the brown skuas isn’t certain, but likely relates to the birds returning from migration to Argentina, where numerous detections were reported over the past few months.In August, the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) issued a report warning about the risk of H5N1 avian flu spread to Antarctica’s wildlife populations, as the virus continued to spread southward at a brisk pace. The virus was first detected in South America in October 2022, and in the space of 3 months spread to its southern tip.In late August, H5N1 was reported in Argentina’s sea lions, including in Terra del Fuego, which is an Antarctica gateway area. WOAH and the FAO said the virus would probably continue to spread south to Antarctica and its offshore islands with the migration of birds from South America. The groups warned that the impact on animals in the region could be immense, owing to their susceptibility to the virus and because they live in dense colonies, which allows efficient virus transmission.

Wildlife across the globe are polluted with flame retardants: Map - Wildlife on every continent are contaminated with harmful flame-retardant chemicals, including some endangered species such as killer whales, northern sea otters, red pandas and chimpanzees, according to a new map that tracks peer-reviewed studies from around the world. Flame-retardants — used in products like furniture, building materials, electronics and cars to meet flammability rules — can leach out and get into the environment, and eventually wildlife and people. Researchers have found both phased-out flame-retardants like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and replacement chemicals like chlorinated paraffins and organophosphate flame-retardants in wildlife. Flame-retardant exposure is linked to a host of health issues including decreased fertility, certain cancers, endocrine disruption, impaired fetal and child development, and immune system impacts.The map, made by the Green Science Policy Institute, “illustrates the global consequences of repeatedly replacing harmful flame retardants with others that turn out to be similarly harmful,” project lead Lydia Jahl, a scientist at the Green Science Policy Institute, said in a statement. Jahl and colleauges pointed to the example of the black-spotted frogs living near electronic-waste facilities in China. Scientists found chlorinated paraffins are linked to shrinking livers in the frogs and the chemicals can be transferred to their eggs.However, it wasn’t just animals living near waste sites—high levels of flame retardants were found in chimpanzees in a protected Ugandan National Park for example.“Killer whales shouldn’t have to swim in a sea of flame retardants. The science is clear that these chemicals harm their development—as well as that of our children,” Arlene Blum, executive director of the Green Science Policy Institute, said in a statement. “We need to update ineffective flammability standards to stop these toxics from entering the environment, wild animals, and us.”Researchers have found that flame-retardants often don’t work as designed and unnecessarily expose us and wildlife to harmful chemicals without the benefits of fire protection.“Instead of this endless cycle of regrettable substitutions, we need to evaluate whether many of the flammability standards that drive the use of flame retardants are even helpful. Some standards—such as California’s old furniture standard—have already been proven ineffective and revised,” Jahl said. “Many more wouldn’t stand up to scrutiny either, and they are wreaking havoc on wildlife and people alike.”See the full map here.

Mexican Anti-GM Corn Collective Receives Environmental Award from US NGO, Amid Escalating Corn War With US - On World Food Day (Oct 16) this year, the Salt Lake City-based environmental organisation, Pax Natura Foundation, presented its annual Pax Natura award to Demanda Colectiva, a Mexican collective of 53 people from 22 organizations who have spent the past ten years resisting attempts by GMO giants like Monsanto, now owned by Bayer, to impose GMO corn on Mexico. So far, that resistance has been a remarkable success: ten years after the collective’s initial class-action suit to block field trials of GM corn, the precautionary injunction issued by Judge Jaime Eduardo Verdugo remains in force despite more than 130 company appeals.Crucially, as an op-ed in the Mexican daily La Jornada notes, Demanda Collectiva’s lawsuit does not seek to obtain financial compensation through the legal process, but rather aims to recover the vitality of Mexico’s fields of corn, as well as stop the use of glyphosate and genetically modified organisms. Mexico’s wildly diverse corn varieties are, the op-ed argues, common and ancestral forms of property that have sustained and enriched the Mexican people’s gastronomic, social and cultural life for millennia. Demanda Colectiva was picked for this year’s Pax Natura award for its “courage and wisdom to resist the ravages of industrial agriculture that degrades the land, destroys biodiversity and encourages increased carbon emissions,” says Pax Natura Foundation’s president and founder Randall Tolpinrud. Previous recipients of the award have included the English primatologist, anthropologist and environmental campaigner Jane Goodall and former Costa Rican President Oscar Arias. Speaking at the award ceremony, Goodall said “more people need to know about” the Mexican collective’s “courageous fight.” This is particularly true given the rising tensions between the US and Mexico over the future of corn.In late August, Washington escalated its food fight with Mexico by calling for the formation of a dispute settlement panel under the USMCA North American trade deal. This was in response to Mexico’s AMLO government’s decision in February to ban GMO corn for human consumption as well as prohibit use of the “probably” carcinogenic weedkiller glyphosate — the herbicide that commonly accompanies many GMO crops. The names of the three panelists who will determine whether or not Mexico’s democratically elected government can actually do this without facing serious financial penalties were announced last week.It is easy to see why Washington is concerned. More than 92% of the corn grown in the States is GMO. Roughly a quarter of all the corn exported by the US goes to Mexico, where it is predominantly used for animal feed. As such, Mexico’s ban will hurt some US farmers, but the impact is likely to be muted. But the U.S. Trade Representatives Office, or USTR, argues that Mexico’s restrictions on GM corn imports are not only not based on “science” but “they undermine the market access [Mexico’s government] agreed to provide in the USMCA.”Canada was quick to join the fray by supporting the US government’s charges against Mexico’s AMLO government, despite the fact it does not export corn, GM or otherwise, to Mexico. As in the US, the Canadian government is firmly in the pockets of the global biotech industry, as a recent exposé by Radio Canada revealed (translation from the French mine as well as the remarks in parenthesis).

First significant winter storm of season could dump foot of snow across northern Rockies, Plains – While much of the Northwest is awash in the colors of autumn leaves, parts of the region have turned white as the season's first major snowstorm arrives. Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories are in place through Thursday for parts of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and North Dakota, where several inches of snow will likely coat the ground. Over 2.7 million Americans are on alert. Already, 13 inches fell in Helena, Montana. Farther west, between 4 and 5 inches of snow fell across the Cascades Mountain passes in Washington, with another 2 to 4 inches likely through the end of Wednesday. In the northern Plains, multiple waves of heavy snow will continue to stretch across Montana and into North Dakota from Wednesday into Friday, with snowfall rates reaching 1 inch per hour, the National Weather Service said. Great Falls, Montana, went from bare ground to a few inches of snow overnight Tuesday as the first wave of snow moved through. "The snow is sticking, and there’s a few inches of snow out there on the roadways, so drivers need to be careful," said FOX Weather's Max Gorden, reporting from Great Falls Wednesday. Another wave of snow was due in later Wednesday, with Great Falls expecting an additional 4 to 5 inches. All across Montana, a second round of snow will fill the skies from Wednesday into Thursday, while the Dakotas will get the bulk of their snow from Thursday into Friday. Accumulations could reach more than 8 inches where these heavier snow bands occur, though there is a low chance some spots in North Dakota could go well over a foot. In the northern Rockies, similar snowfall rates could drop up to a foot of snow, especially around Yellowstone National Park. Both regions will deal with treacherous travel with snow- and ice-covered roads, gusty winds and low visibility. Later this week, the snow will continue to spread east, dropping the first accumulations of the season in North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Winter storm alerts are already posted for portions of North Dakota.

VIDEO : Watch: Hurricane Norma makes landfall in Mexico as Category 1 storm | Euronews -- Hurricane Norma made landfall this Saturday in the south of the Mexican Baja California Peninsula, bringing with it torrential rain and high waves near resorts where 60,000 tourists were staying.

Norma downgraded to a tropical storm in Mexico as Hurricane Tammy leaves Barbuda (AP) — Norma strengthened slightly and dumped heavy rain after being downgraded to a tropical storm Sunday as it moved into mainland Mexico, while Hurricane Tammy left the Caribbean island of Barbuda with minor damage.Once a Category 4 hurricane, Norma came ashore Saturday as a Category 1 near the Pacific resort of Los Cabos at the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula. Tens of thousands were left without power.Norma’s gusts continued to cause damage as the storm moved northeast, crossing the Gulf of California toward the Mexico mainland’s Sinaloa state, where schools were ordered closed Monday. Shelters were set up in Sinaloa and neighboring Sonora with capacity for nearly 13,000 people.The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Sunday evening that Norma was about 120 miles (195 kilometers) west of Culiacan, and about 65 miles (105 kilometers) south-southwest of Los Mochis. The storm regained a bit of strength as it moved northeastward across the Gulf of California with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 kph). Up to 18 inches (45 centimeters) of rain could fall in some areas Monday, forecasters warned. “These rains will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain,” the hurricane center said.In Los Cabos, fallen trees blocked some streets. But with no major damage, tourists began to emerge, some with the intention of leaving.“They told us that the air terminal is now open and we want to return to San Diego, since the danger of the hurricane is over,” But to the north, there was no flying out of La Paz, the capital of Baja California Sur. It was hit with so much rain that the airport remained closed. Streams of water with logs, dirt and garbage crossed many of the highways so many entrances to the city were blocked. Elements of the security forces made rounds looking for people in need of help.The Mexican navy said it has 5.000 marines deployed to attend the states affected by Norma with ships, helicopters, trucks, food, water and first aid. Meanwhile, Antigua and Barbuda escaped with no reported injuries from Hurricane Tammy. A late and sudden shift spared the Antigua from a direct hit, but left the sister island in line for the system’s full force during the late night hours Saturday.The hurricane made landfall on the 62-square-mile Barbuda at approximately 9:15 p.m. Saturday, bringing heavy rain and winds as high as 92 mph. The storm knocked down some power lines, triggered an island wide blackout and caused minor damage to a few homes. However, no major infrastructural damage was reported.

The Atlantic and Pacific are still cranking out hurricanes - The Washington Post --Tropical activity abounds in both the Atlantic and the Pacific, where the oceans are churning out named storms as if it’s still September. Norma slammed into Mexico over the weekend and another storm seems eager to do the same, while Hurricane Tammy could soon have company in the Atlantic.Norma hit Cabo San Lucas as an 80 mph Category 1 hurricane on Saturday, bringing strong winds that toppled utility poles and cut power to tens of thousands but sparing the Baja Peninsula its former fury. Norma had exploded in intensity between Wednesday and Thursday, jumping from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 130 mph Category 4 in just 24 hours.Tropical Storm Otis has since formed to its south and is expected to be a heavy rainmaker for parts of Mexico’s west coast.The Atlantic is equally active. There’s Hurricane Tammy, which was located northeast of the Caribbean and is expected to trace an odd looping shape before potentially affecting Bermuda later in the week. But there’s also a new disturbance that is consolidating in the Bay of Campeche.The season overall has been about 10 percent more active than a normal year in the Atlantic, and we still have nearly six weeks to go before the “official” end to Atlantic hurricane season on Nov. 30. The Northeast Pacific has been running about 18 percent ahead of average. And with abnormally warm and, in some cases, record-breaking ocean waters, there’s little reason to believe the oceans are about to wrap things up quite yet.As of Monday morning, Hurricane Tammy had 80 mph winds and was located 260 miles north of Anguilla, moving north at 7 mph. It was withdrawing from the northern Lesser Antilles, the island chain that bounds the Atlantic and Caribbean. Over the weekend, Tammy unleashed hurricane-force winds on Barbuda, a small island on the northeast flank of the Lesser Antilles, where it made landfall around 9:15 p.m. Saturday.As the center of Tammy started to pull away from the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, it began to expand. It now has a broader core with more raggedy outer rain bands, possibly an indicator of a little dry air becoming drawn into the circulation. Conversely, though, once-disruptive high-altitude winds are easing a little bit, allowing for more healthy high altitude “exhaust” to exit Tammy. The more “spent” air that fans away from the storm at the upper levels, the more warm, humid air from below the storm can ingest to maintain strength or intensify.Forecasters are also monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery reveals a growing complex of thunderstorms. If a low-level center can become established and vertically stretched by a thunderstorm updraft, there’s a good shot it could become a last-minute tropical depression — the precursor to a named storm — before moving ashore over Nicaragua on Tuesday.

Hurricane Otis rapidly intensifies into a ‘catastrophic’ Category 5 storm as landfall in Mexico nears -- Hurricane Otis underwent rapid intensification and strengthened into a major Category 5 hurricane Tuesday as it swirled just off the southern coast of Mexico near Acapulco. "Otis is forecast to remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall, and rapid weakening is then forecast due to the higher terrain of Mexico," the National Hurricane Center wrote in the 10 p.m. Central time advisory. The storm will bring life-threatening storm surge, destructive waves and heavy rain to southwestern Mexico, which may result in flash flooding and mudslides in the higher terrain. Catastrophic damage is likely where the core moves onshore, according to the NHC. "Hurricane Otis has intensified by 80 mph in the past 12 hours (from 65 mph to 145 mph). That's the fastest 12-hour intensification rate in the eastern North Pacific (to 180°) in the satellite era (since 1966), breaking the old record of 75 mph/12 hr set by Patricia in 2015," CSU hurricane specialist Phil Klotzbach said Tuesday evening when the storm intensified to a Category 4 hurricane. Otis is located about 55 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, and is moving north-northwest at 9 mph, as of the latest advisory from the NHC. Otis has maximum sustained winds of 160 mph with some higher gusts. Ahead of landfall, Otis is undergoing a process known as rapid intensification, which is when a tropical system increases in maximum sustained winds of at least 35 mph in 24 hours. Otis is forecast to remain a Category 5 hurricane when its center reaches the coast Wednesday. Rapid weakening is likely after landfall. The NHC said Otis will continue on a north-northwest motion over the next few days. On that current forecast track, the center of Otis will reach the southern coast of Mexico by early Wednesday. A Hurricane Warning has been issued along the southern coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo, including the city of Acapulco. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning are in place from Lagunas de Cachahua to Punta Maldonado. A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the far eastern Pacific in a couple of days, partially related to the remnants of Atlantic Tropical Depression Twenty-One, which are forecast to move into the region. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system by late this week or this weekend while the low moves slowly westward to west-northwestward, the NHC said. Formation chance through the next weeks is medium.

Hurricane Otis makes landfall near Acapulco as Category 5 storm, threatening 'nightmare scenario' for southern Mexico — Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, early Wednesday as a Category 5 storm, delivering what forecasters warned could be a “nightmare scenario” for Mexico’s southern coast as it threatens to cause catastrophic damage with destructive winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge. Otis’ center slammed into Mexico’s coast around 12:25 a.m. local time with sustained winds of 165 mph, the National Hurricane Center said. The storm is expected to rapidly weaken as it presses inland and over southern Mexico’s higher terrain, where it will likely dissipate Wednesday night, the hurricane center said. On Tuesday, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador implored coastal residents of the state of Guerrero, which includes the beach resort city of Acapulco, to seek shelter and stay away from rivers, streams and ravines ahead of the storm’s landfall. A hurricane warning is in effect for coastal Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo. A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are also active from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado. “This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco metropolitan area with the core of the destructive hurricane likely to come near or over that large city early on Wednesday,” the hurricane center said late Tuesday. “There are no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part of Mexico.” Acapulco is home to roughly 800,000 people. The winds near Otis’ core are “extremely destructive,” the hurricane center cautioned early Wednesday, noting hurricane-force winds extend up to 30 miles from its center. Upper floors of high-rise buildings are at greater risk of severe winds than those closer to ground level, the center said. Otis is also forecast to create storm surge that will likely whip up “large and destructive waves” and life-threatening coastal flooding around the area where it made landfall. Additionally, between 8 to 16 inches of rain totals are expected through the end of the week, with some areas seeing up to 20 inches of rain. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides in higher terrain areas, the hurricane center warned. Otis had been rapidly intensifying throughout Tuesday, gaining 80 mph in a 12-hour period. It became the fastest intensifying hurricane in Eastern Pacific history, according to Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the atmospheric science department at Colorado State University.

Extremely dangerous Category 5 Hurricane “Otis” makes unexpected landfall near Acapulco, Mexico - Tropical Storm “Otis” explosively intensified into a Category 4 hurricane in just 12 hours and continued intensifying on its way toward Mexico where it made landfall at 06:25 UTC (00:25 LT) on October 25, 2023, as a Category 5 hurricane. This is now one of the fastest-intensifying hurricanes in the world’s history. A nightmare scenario unfolded for southern Mexico this evening with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline, NHC forecaster Blake noted in a Forecast Discussion issued just 3 hours before landfall. “This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco metropolitan area with the core of the destructive hurricane likely to come near or over that large city early on Wednesday. There are no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part of Mexico.” At the time of landfall, Otis was located about 10 km (6 miles) S of Acapulco (population 1 million+). It had maximum sustained winds of 270 km/h (165 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 923 hPa. It was moving NNW at 17 km/h (10 mph). Since residents were expecting tropical storm landfall just a day before, Otis left them little time to find a safe shelter and protect life and property. This is the first major hurricane (Category 3+) landfall within 80 km (50 miles) of Acapulco and the first Eastern Pacific hurricane ever recorded to make landfall as a Category 5 in Mexico. Hurricanes of such strength are capable of producing catastrophic damage, especially in highly populated areas such as Acapulco. YouTube video. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo; a Hurricane Watch for Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado; and a Tropical Storm Warning for Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado. Otis is forecast to continue moving inland over southern Mexico during the next day or so but rapid weakening is expected and the storm is expected to dissipate over southern Mexico on Wednesday night (local time). Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 km (30 miles) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 110 km (70 miles). Hurricane conditions are occurring within portions of the hurricane warning area and they will spread inland through this morning, with extremely destructive winds near the core. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level. Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the warning areas through today. A catastrophic storm surge is expected to produce life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 200 to 400 mm (8 to 16 inches) with maximum amounts of 500 mm (20 inches) through Thursday across Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

Hurricane Otis batters Mexico's Acapulco causing heavy damage to beach resort (Reuters) - Hurricane Otis roared into the Mexican beach resort of Acapulco early on Wednesday as a rare Category 5 storm and one of the strongest to ever hit Mexico's Pacific Coast, battering hotels, ripping off roofs and smashing windows. Videos posted on social media showed rooms wrecked by the passing of the hurricane, ceilings and walls rent open, windows smashed and cars partly submerged in floodwaters as the southern state of Guerrero awoke to the disarray left in Otis' wake. Debris was strewn all around lobbies, patios, streets and hotel balconies as the hurricane wreaked havoc across the shoreline. Photographs on social media indicated the sides of some buildings in Acapulco had been partially peeled off by Otis. The airport was heavily flooded and damaged, images showed. There were no immediate reports of fatalities but authorities stressed that large swathes of the region were without power or phone signal making it hard to gain a detailed picture of the destruction. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was traveling to Acapulco to witness the damage and was expected to arrive later on Wednesday. The military was mobilized to help with the hurricane's aftermath. Footage from one hospital on social media showed nurses evacuating patients from their rooms to keep them safe from Otis, which strengthened unexpectedly fast at sea and barreled into the coast with winds of 165 miles per hour (266 kph). One of the strongest hurricanes ever to hit the region, Otis reached the shore as a Category 5 - the strongest level on the five-step Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale - before quickly weakening to a Category 4 storm. Its power slackened further as it moved inland, reducing Otis to a tropical storm and later dissipating over the mountains of southern Mexico. Mexican authorities expressed shock at the sudden force of Otis, which plowed in to the Pacific coast almost exactly eight years after Hurricane Patricia, a storm that whipped up winds of 200 miles per hour (322 kph). Otis dissipated on Wednesday afternoon but the U.S. National Hurricane Center warned of heavy rains in southwestern and south-central Mexico through Thursday and a continued risk of flooding and mudslides. Authorities had previously said Otis could bring up to 20 inches (51 cm) of rain to parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca states, mudslides, a "potentially catastrophic" storm surge, and life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Mexico's civil protection authorities reported power outages throughout Guerrero, affecting hundreds of thousands, while flights to and from Acapulco were suspended and school classes canceled.

Hotels, Businesses Destroyed In Acapulco - Videos from The Weather Channel

Communication down in Acapulco after Otis slams region -- Hurricane Otis made landfall as a 165-mph Category 5 hurricane, the strongest to ever hit Mexico's Pacific coast and the eastern Pacific. Otis slammed into the tourist destination of Acapulco and all communication from the region is down, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said. The storm intensified by 80 mph in 12 hours, which is the fastest rapid intensification in the eastern Northern Pacific in the satellite era since 1966. The explosive intensification is due to warmer waters in the Pacific, with a growing body of research linking this increase to human-caused climate change. As of 2 p.m. ET, the storm was downgraded to a tropical storm with winds of 60 mph. Mexico’s national civil protection coordination agency said ports in the state of Guerrero are still closed after Hurricane Otis Ports in Acapulco are not allowing the entrance of both large and small boats. In Puerto Marqués, ports are closed only for small boats.Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador instructed the heads of Mexico’s security cabinet to move to the port of Guerrero to accelerate care and assistance to the population affected by Hurricane Otis, a government news release said this afternoon.The heads of security were also instructed to carry out damage assessments to help determine whether additional measures are necessary for the region's recovery.Initial reports indicate that Guerrero has endured significant destruction, including damage to communication lines, which makes it difficult to obtain accurate information. López Obrador said the Secretariat of Infrastructure, Communications and Transportation is working to restore connectivity as soon as possible. A 4.4-magnitude earthquake was detected in the resort city of Zihuatanejo, northwest of Acapulco, in the Mexican state of Guerrero just hours after being hit by Hurricane Otis. The quake comes as the region reels from one of the strongest hurricanes to ever hit Mexico. Mexico's national civil protection coordination agency said it has been in touch with state and municipal personnel in the area "to carry out a preliminary evaluation of the area." The earthquake struck the hurricane-ravaged region as much of the seismic sensor network used to detect quakes was offline due to Otis' destruction. “This situation means that if an earthquake occurs in these areas, we will not be able to alert the population,” SkyAlert, the service used to provide early earthquake warnings, previously said in a news release. Transporting aid to Acapulco is a priority for Mexican authorities following the devastation of Hurricane Otis, but the Mexican military said destruction caused by the storm has left it unable to access the airport as well as major roads into the city. Heavy rains from Otis triggered a landslide that blocked a main Acapulco highway, causing "a total closure to traffic," according to the Secretariat of Infrastructure, Communications and Transportation in the state of Guerrero. "There is no alternate route. Take precautions." Hurricane Otis hit Mexico as one of the strongest storms in the country’s history, knocking out power and internet service with 165 mph winds. Hurricane Otis left more than 500,000 power customers in the state of Guerrero without electricity, according to Mexico’s Federal Electricity Commission. The commission said it was able to remotely restore power to about 40% of those customers, adding that “as soon as conditions allow, personnel will go to work on site.” Otis' maximum sustained winds have decreased to 80 mph, and continued weakening is expected as the storm moves over the mountains of Mexico, the NHC said. Otis is expected to dissipate over southern Mexico tonight.The storm is still expected to produce additional rainfall totaling 4-6 inches across Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca, which may produce flash and urban flooding. a ll communication in the areas affected by Hurricane Otis has collapsed, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said in a news conference Wednesday morning. Authorities in Mexico still don't have any information about deaths caused by the hurricane, "but remember, we have no communication yet," López Obrador said.. While Otis was downgraded to a Category 2 hurricane, López Obrador said they expect rain all day in the state of Guerrero, where it made landfall overnight. Otis rapidly intensified by 115 mph in 24 hours and 80 mph in 12 hours. Rapidly intensifying hurricanes (defined as strengthening 35 mph in 24 hours) are becoming more frequent, and there is a growing body of research linking this increase to human-caused climate change.Human activity has led to warming not only in the atmosphere, but also in the oceans, and the oceans have absorbed around 90% of the warming that has occurred in recent decades due to increased greenhouse gas emissions.Warm water is the main fuel for hurricanes, and so warmer oceans fuel stronger hurricanes. As oceans continue to warm, this increases the probability of tropical cyclones undergoing rapid intensification.Otis intensified when it tracked over Pacific sea surface temperatures that were nearly 90 degrees Fahrenheit. (That is approximately 2-4 degrees Fahrenheit above average.)As seen with Otis, rapid intensification can be challenging to forecast. This is why an explosively intensifying hurricane on approach to landfall is a nightmare scenario and contributes to the human and financial toll of these types of hurricanes especially when slamming into a populated area such as Acapulco. According to Climate Central, the six most costly hurricanes since 1980 all rapidly intensified 45-80 mph in the span of 24 hours. Video posted to X early this morning by @ClintonHaVi shows palm trees violently swaying in Acapulco as heavy rain and powerful winds from Otis slam the region. In just 24 hours, Otis rapidly intensified from a tropical storm with 50 mph winds to a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 165 mph. That is a 115 mph increase, and the definition for rapid intensification for a storm is just 35 mph within that time span. The storm intensified wind speeds by 80 mph in just 12 hours. The Guerrero state government said it was preparing 396 shelters in anticipation of families being driven from their homes by wind damage or surging waters. In a post on X, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador told people to go to shelters; stay away from rivers, streams and ravines; and be on alert.Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, as a Category 5 hurricane around 2:30 a.m. Wednesday, bringing life-threatening storm surges and dangerous waves to Mexico's southern Pacific coast. Maximum wind speeds reached around 165 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm was downgraded to a Category 2 storm around 8 a.m. as it moved inland, lowering the wind speeds to around 110 mph. The National Hurricane Center expects the center of Otis to move farther inland over southern Mexico throughout tonight, rapidly weakening over the next 12 to 24 hours. This storm hitting Acapulco means it is the first time since 1979 that a Category 5 hurricane has directly affected such a large metro area. Back then, Hurricane David slammed Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, with estimated winds of 150 knots.

Hurricane Otis kills at least 27, hammers Acapulco as damage seen in billions (Reuters) - Hurricane Otis claimed the lives of at least 27 people, Mexico's government said on Thursday after one of the most powerful storms to hit the country hammered the beach resort of Acapulco, causing damage seen running into billions of dollars. Otis, which struck Mexico on Wednesday as a Category 5 storm, flooded streets, ripped roofs off homes and hotels, submerged cars and cut communications, road and air access, leaving a trail of wreckage across Acapulco, a city of nearly 900,000. Four people are still missing, the government said. "What Acapulco suffered was really disastrous," President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador told a press conference in Mexico City tallying the damage from the storm, which ripped into southern Mexico with winds of 165 miles per hour (266 kph). Otis, which intensified unexpectedly rapidly off the Pacific coast, was so powerful it tore large trees up by the roots, scattering debris all over Acapulco. It flooded hospitals, and hundreds of patients had to be evacuated to safer areas. The government declared a state of emergency in the region, but has given scant details about how the 27 people died, or how many others were injured. Erik Lozoya, a professional magician, said he endured "three hours of terror" with his wife and two baby daughters in an Acapulco hotel room as the hurricane smashed through the windows and swept through the building with a deafening intensity. "It literally felt as though our ears were going to explode," said the 26-year-old Lozoya, who barricaded himself in a bathroom with his family and four others. "We saw mattresses, water tanks flying. The ceiling began to cave in." The hurricane peeled off sections of buildings in downtown Acapulco. Some Mexican media posted videos of looting in the city. Reuters could not immediately confirm their veracity. The government has so far not estimated the cost of Otis, but Enki Research, which tracks tropical storms and models the cost of their damage, saw it "likely approaching $15 billion."

After Hurricane Otis, Mexican Officials Confirm At Least 27 Deaths - Miguel Ángel Dorantes surveyed the scene of devastation left by the most powerful hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico, wondering if he would be able to reach home. Mudslides blocked off his hillside house in Acapulco. Basic goods were scarce because of aggressive looting following the storm. “We have no gas, no water, no food,” he said, as people ran past his car and other gridlocked vehicles, carrying bottles of water, bags of beans and anything else from nearby stores. “Everything has been looted. There’s nothing to take anymore.” The extent of the destruction left by Hurricane Otis, which turned a once popular tourist destination into a scene of chaos, only started to come into view that morning. More than two dozen people were killed and three were missing after the storm made landfall in the early hours of Wednesday with an intensity that shocked forecasters and government officials. Thousands of military officers, medical teams and government officials confronted a devastated Guerrero State on Thursday. Communication and power systems remained largely off in much of the state, making the scope of the hurricane’s toll difficult to ascertain. The hurricane struck with little warning after growing with astonishing speed from a tropical storm into a Category 5 hurricane, packing sustained winds of 165 miles per hour when it made landfall. The authorities were particularly concerned about Acapulco, a port city of more than 852,000 people on the Pacific coast and the largest city in Guerrero State. Acapulco was hosting an international mining industry convention when the storm hit. In addition, many hotels were packed with tourists. Photographs and videos showed ravaged hotel rooms, doors ripped from hinges and furniture scattered throughout city streets. Frightened tourists hid in their resorts on Wednesday night, as the hurricane collapsed ceilings and shattered windows. Roughly 80 percent of hotels in Acapulco were damaged by the storm, according to Evelyn Salgado Pineda, the governor of Guerrero. Winds ripped trees and utility poles from the ground, Mr. López Obrador said, adding that Acapulco remained without power, communication and water. Beaches that once brought visitors from all over the world were now covered in piles of debris. Many streets turned into rivers of mud. More than 200 patients had to be moved out of damaged hospitals, Rosa Icela Rodriguez, the national secretary of security and citizen protection, said. The Mexican authorities said that more than 8,000 members of the armed forces had been deployed to the area, but the desperation was clear in Acapulco’s outer neighborhoods on Thursday. On the outskirts, residents could be seen carrying necessities — bags of food, toilet paper and mattresses — through waist-deep flooded streets. Some people carried boxes of beer and alcohol out of a convenience store, and one group of men hoisted a safe. Some even took empty shelves from the stores. Closer to the city, people rushed to the few stores and warehouses that had not yet been ransacked. In Central de Abasto, one of Acapulco’s main supply centers for markets, restaurants and homes, people walked out of warehouses with their hands full of goods. A group of men inspected a barefoot woman who had accidentally stepped on something sharp. Nearby, Guillermo Domínguez Reyes, 18, stood helplessly in the middle of a discount store where he started working only a month ago as a cashier. Nothing remained but mud, empty fridges and shelves. “I really just showed up to see if they counted my workday,” he said, wiping the sweat from his forehead. Since the storm, he and his parents, who live in a nearby neighborhood, have been growing more desperate to find food and water, he said. But he had refused to steal from businesses or stores. “I’d rather go hungry than do this,” he said, expressing surprise that the store had been emptied in only one day. “More than anything because of my morals, because of my beliefs.”

Hurricane Otis kills at least 27 in devastating blow to Acapulco, Mexico, that tore through high-rises and inundated roads - — At least 27 people are dead and Acapulco, Mexico, has been left in ruins after Hurricane Otis slammed into the coast Wednesday as a record-breaking Category 5 storm. Four people are also missing, Mexican Security Minister Rosa Icela Rodriguez said during a news conference on Thursday morning. Officials and military aid finally arrived in Acapulco late Wednesday after their travel was hindered by the same damage they came to help with and assess. What they found was devastating. Images and video show structures torn apart, including several high-rises. Storm surge and rain left roads inundated, leaving some to wade through several feet of murky water. “In all of Acapulco there is not a standing [electric] pole,” Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said during a news conference Thursday. The president said there were more than 1,000 workers working to rebuild the grid so water service can be restored to the area. More than 500,000 homes and businesses lost power across Mexico’s Guerrero state, power utility CFE said. Service had been restored to 40% of those affected, it added. A popular tourist destination, about 80% of Acapulco’s hotels were impacted by Otis, according to Guerrero Gov. Evelyn Salgado. Salgado said her office is “supporting tourists” with “30 to 40 trucks that are outside hotels to evacuate (visitors) to other areas free of charge.” Officials and residents were left with little time to prepare for the severity of the storm because early forecasts significantly underestimated the threat. Otis rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane – the area’s strongest storm on record – in just 12 hours.

Hurricane Otis survivors search for friends and necessities in devastated Acapulco - (AP) — Survivors of a Category 5 storm that killed at least 27 people as it devastated Mexico’s resort city of Acapulco spent Thursday searching for acquaintances and necessities and hoping that aid would come quickly in the wake of Hurricane Otis. The Pacific storm had strengthened with shocking swiftness before slamming into the coast early Wednesday, and the Mexican government deployed around 10,000 troops to deal with the aftermath. But equipment to move tons of mud and fallen trees from the streets was slow in arriving. Resentment grew Thursday in impoverished neighborhoods as residents worried that government attention would go to repairing infrastructure for the city’s economic engine of tourism rather than helping the neediest. Flora Contreras Santos, a housewife from a poor neighborhood on the outskirts of the city, sought help in looking for a 3-year-old girl who was swept away from her mother in a mudslide. She went from soldier to soldier trying to interest any one of them in the tragedy that occurred on her street at the height of the storm.“The mountain came down on them. The mud took her from the mother’s arms,” Contreras said. “We need help, the mother is in bad shape and we can’t find the girl.” Even as army bulldozers began clearing knee-deep mud from Acapulco’s main boulevards, Contreras’ pleas did not appear to move any of the soldiers to action. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador went by road Wednesday after the hurricane hit the iconic city on Mexico ‘s Pacific coast. At least four people remained missing. It was unclear if the 3-year-old girl was counted among them.The president said Otis had toppled every power-line pole in the zone where it hit on Wednesday, leaving much of the city of 1 million without electricity. Otis turned from mild to monster in record time, and scientists were struggling to figure out how — and why they didn’t see it coming. “The people sheltered, protected themselves and that’s why fortunately there weren’t more tragedies, loss of human life,” López Obrador said. Acapulco’s municipal water system was down and around half a million homes lost power. López Obrador said that restoring power was a top priority, but by Thursday evening there were still 300,000 homes and businesses with no electricity. Brown floodwaters extended for miles in some areas. Many residents were taking basic items from stores to survive. Others left with pricier goods, in widespread rampages through the area’s stores.

Photos: Hurricane Otis razes Acapulco, Mexico --Hurricane Otis made landfall directly on Acapulco, Mexico, as a violent Category 5 storm on Wednesday, killing at least 27 people and causing extensive damage to the beach resort city.The storm and the flooding it brought with it knocked out electricity and communications for thousands of Acapulco's 780,000 residents, sheared walls from buildings, blew out windows and set off landslides that blocked the city's main highway.Before making landfall, Otis intensified at one of the fastest rates on record for the region, strengthening from a tropical storm to a Category 5 storm in just 24 hours, Axios' Andrew Freedman reports. Otis, which was described by the National Hurricane Center as a "nightmare scenario," caught forecasters off guard, as it was expected to make landfall as Category 1. Studies have shown that this extreme intensification is enabled by warmer ocean waters, the number one driver of which is human-caused climate change. Otis may have also set a grim record for the largest population to experience Category 5 winds in a single storm.

Mexico's Acapulco ravaged by looting after Hurricane Otis (Reuters) - Looting ravaged the Mexican city of Acapulco after the iconic beach resort was hammered this week by Hurricane Otis, a record-breaking storm that killed at least 27 people and left thousands of residents struggling to get food and water. Otis pounded Acapulco with winds of 165 miles per hour (266 km per hour) early on Wednesday, flooding the city, tearing roofs from homes, stores and hotels, submerging vehicles, and severing communications as well as road and air connections.The cost of devastation left by the Category 5 storm was estimated at billions of dollars, and over 8,000 armed forces members were sent to help the stricken port recover."Right now, money's no use to us because there's nothing to buy, everything's been looted," 57-year-old Acapulco resident Rodolfo Villagomez said after Otis tore through the city. "It was total chaos. You could hear it here hissing like a bull."On Thursday evening, people carried off goods including food, water and toilet paper from stores. "We came to get food, because we don't have any," a woman told Reuters.Reuters video showed people carrying boxes from a wrecked supermarket and loading up cars. Inside, shelves were bare. .Elsewhere, household detritus was littered among ruined deck chairs and jumbles of mangled trees outside wrecked homes.Speaking at a regular press conference, Lopez Obrador said the government would help people in the city of nearly 900,000 in the southern state of Guerrero, one of Mexico's poorest.But many residents said the aid was insufficient."All the stores are closed or destroyed," said Raul Busto Ramirez, 76, an engineer who works at Acapulco's airport. He blamed looting on shortages and said ATM machines were out of action, leaving people with no cash.

Shocking pictures lay bare devastation in Acapulco after Cat 5 Hurricane that killed 27 - as Mexican city descends into chaos, with desperate residents blocking entrances to resort to demand aid amid widespread looting - Shocking pictures have laid bare the devastation in Acapulco after Hurricane Otis pummeled the city sending it spiraling into chaos. The category 5 hurricane made landfall on Wednesday with winds topping 165 miles per hour, making it the strongest on record for a landfalling Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone. The storm killed at least 27 people across the state and at least four people, including three Navy personnel, remain missing. Now, the coastal city is dealing with the fallout of the devastating storm as widespread looting takes hold, forcing residents to block entrances and demand aid. On Friday, villagers from outlying hamlets lined one of the only two roads leading into the resort, waving signs and desperately holding out arms asking for water, milk, diapers and medicine. The early images and accounts were of extensive devastation, toppled trees and power lines lying in brown floodwaters that extended for miles. Resulting destruction delayed a comprehensive response by the government, which was still assessing the damage along Mexico's Pacific coast, and made residents desperate. Many of the once-sleek beachfront hotels in Acapulco looked like toothless, shattered hulks a day after the Category 5 storm blew out hundreds - and possibly thousands - of windows. While some 10,000 military troops were deployed to the area, they lacked the tools to clean tons of mud and fallen trees from the streets. Esteban Domínguez Bacilio, 19, said they were desperate 'because trees fell on our houses, our children need to eat, we don´t have anything' and 'no authority has come'. 'If we don´t get aid into Metlapil [a nearby village] and the other towns, we're going to block the road.' Dozens of angry residents of the hamlet of Lucio Cabañas, on the outskirts of Acapulco, carried out the threat of blocking the road. They pushed past National Guard troops at a toll plaza and shoved traffic barriers across the remaining lanes into the city, holding up signs reading 'we need aid.'

Tammy strengthens again as Category 2 hurricane continues northward journey across Atlantic - Hurricane Tammy continues to strengthen as the Category 2 hurricane spins over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean on a path that could eventually bring tropical storm conditions to Bermuda this weekend. It's Tammy's next chapter after it slammed into the northeastern Caribbean Islands as a Category 1 storm with hurricane-force winds and heavy rain last weekend. As of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Tammy is centered about 510 miles to the southeast of Bermuda and has maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, making it a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The NHC says Tammy should begin to weaken over the next few days and will likely become a powerful post-tropical cyclone by Thursday. The latest NHC advisory has Hurricane Tammy moving to the northeast at about 14 mph. A northward turn is expected later Wednesday, followed by a slower motion to the northwest or west-northwest Thursday and Friday. Even though Tammy is hundreds of miles away from the Caribbean islands, the storm is still producing large waves that are impacting portions of the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Those swells are continuing to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Hurricane Tammy made landfall on the island of Barbuda around 10:15 p.m. EDT Saturday with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. The region saw gusty winds, angry seas and tremendous rain as the heart of the storm moved by just miles to the east of many of those islands. High winds continued into early Sunday morning before the late-season hurricane headed northwestward away from the islands.

Tammy has redeveloped into a tropical storm over the Atlantic Ocean, forecasters say (AP) — Tammy has redeveloped Friday into a tropical storm over the Atlantic Ocean, forecasters said.The storm around midday was about 215 miles (350 kilometers) east of Bermuda, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 kph), the National Hurricane Center said. It was moving northwest at 3 mph (5 kph).Tropical Storm Tammy earlier this month formed in the Atlantic, became a hurricane and made landfall Oct. 21 on the Caribbean island of Barbuda. Minor damage was reported before Tammy continued over the Atlantic and became a strong extratropical cyclone. A gale warning was in effect for Bermuda, where high winds were forecast into Friday night before the storm moves away from Bermuda on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone “Hamoon” makes landfall in Bangladesh - Tropical Cyclone “Hamoon” formed on October 23, 2023, as the 4th named storm of the 2023 North Indian Ocean cyclone season. Hamoon approached the coast of Bangladesh on October 24 while rapidly weakening, and made landfall north of Cox’s Bazar at around 16:00 UTC with maximum 10-minute sustained winds between 110 km/h (70 mph) and 120 (75 mph). Maritime ports of Chattogram and Cox’s Bazar have been advised to hoist danger signal No. 7 ahead of the landfall, while ports of Payra and Mongla hoisted signal No. 5. All fishing boats and trawlers over North Bay have been advised to remain in shelter till further notice. Hamoon brought very heavy rainfall, posing significant landslide risk at places over the hilly regions of Cox’s Bazar, Bandarban, Rangamati, Khagrachari, and Chattogram. Under the peripheral effect of the cyclone and steep pressure gradient, the low-lying areas of the coastal districts of Cox’s Bazar, Chattogram, Noakhali, Laxmipur, and their offshore islands were forecast to be inundated by a wind-driven surge of 60 to 90 cm (2 – 3 feet) above normal astronomical tide. satellite image of tropical cyclone hamoon at 1530 utc on october 24 2023 Tropical Cyclone “Hamoon” at 15:30 UTC on October 24, 2023. Credit: KMA/GEO-KOMPSAT-2A, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers The cyclone completed crossing the coast at 19:00 UTC on October 24 (01:00 LT on October 25) and weakened into a deep depression near Satkania, Chattogram. It is forecast to continue moving further inland while weakening and dropping heavy rain. Preliminary casualty reports indicate that at least three people have lost their lives, with many more injured. Hundreds of houses are damaged, many trees along the coast of Cox’s Bazar have been uprooted, and numerous small shops near the beach have been destroyed. Maritime ports of Mongla and Payra have been advised to lower danger signal No. 5 and instead to hoist local cautionary signal No. 3. All fishing boats and trawlers over North Bay have been advised to remain in shelter till further notice.

Tropical Cyclone “Lola” intensifies as it approaches Vanuatu, poses threat to southern New Caledonia - Tropical Cyclone “Lola” formed on October 21, 2023, as the first named storm of the 2023/24 South Pacific cyclone season. It formed 10 days before the official start of the season. The cyclone is intensifying as it moves south toward Vanuatu. On October 23 at 05:00 UTC, Tropical Cyclone “Lola” was located approximately 230 km (143 miles) northeast of Vanua Lava Island in Torba Province, northern Vanuatu, and 385 km (239 miles) northeast of Luganville City in Espiritu Santo Island, central Vanuatu. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Lola had maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h (110 mph) and was moving southward at a speed of 13 km/h (8 mph) at 09:00 UTC. Animated multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) shows a medium-sized system with rain bands wrapping in tighter from all quadrants into a symmetrical cold dense overcast with deepening and overshooting cloud tops and has maintained a ragged and elongated 28 km (17 miles) wide eye. The forecast indicates that the cyclone will continue to move southwestward, passing between the Espiritu Santo and Malekula Islands on the afternoon of October 24 with maximum sustained winds ranging between 130 km/h and 145 km/h (81 mph and 90 mph). The cyclone is expected to affect southern New Caledonia on October 27 – 28, transitioning into a tropical storm by that point. Lola is expected to bring very heavy rainfall, strong winds, and storm surges over the entire region of Vanuatu in the next 72 hours. The sea wave height is predicted to reach up to 13 m (43 feet). The cyclone is currently in a highly favorable environment with low vertical wind shears and sea surface temperatures ranging between 28 °C and 29 °C (82 – 84 °F). Numerical models predict that the cyclone will track more southwestward as the near-equatorial ridge to the east builds. After 72 hours, a shortwave trough approaching from the southwest is expected to weaken the ridge, allowing the system to move more southward. The favorable environmental conditions are likely to fuel a steady intensification to a peak of 180 km/h (115 mph) by 18:00 UTC today. Residents and authorities in Vanuatu and southern New Caledonia should be prepared for severe weather conditions, including heavy rainfall, strong winds, and storm surges over the next few days.

Red Alert in Vanuatu, Lola becomes southern hemisphere’s earliest Category 5 tropical cyclone on record - The center of Tropical Cyclone “Lola” approached the islands of Maewo, Pentecost, and Ambae in Vanuatu at around 12:00 UTC on October 24, 2023, with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h (115 mph). Maximum one-minute sustained winds were recorded at 205 km/h (125 mph), gusting up to 250 km/h (155 mph). The minimum barometric pressure was 941 hPa. Very destructive hurricane-force winds of 230 km/h (140 mph), gusting to 320 km/h (200 mph) are expected to affect Torba, Sanma, and Penama in the next 24 hours. A Red Alert is now in effect for Torba, Sanma, Penama, Malampa, and Shefa, and a Blue alert for Tafea Province. People in Torba, Sanma, Penama, Malampa, Shefa, and Tafea provinces should listen to all Radio Outlets to get the latest information on this system. Lola formed on October 21, 2023, ten days before the official start of the 2023/24 South Pacific cyclone season. By October 23, the storm had intensified into a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone. It further intensified into Category 4 by 12:00 UTC the same day, with a maximum ten-minute sustained winds of 175 km/h (110 mph). By 18:00 UTC on October 23, Lola’s maximum sustained winds reached 215 km/h (135 mph). At the same time, the Fiji Meteorological Service upgraded the system to a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone. As a result, Lola became the earliest Category 5 tropical cyclone on record in the southern hemisphere. Lola’s eye then quickly disappeared, signaling a phase of rapid weakening. At 12:00 UTC on October 24 (23:00 LT), the center of Severe Tropical Cyclone “Lola” (Category 4) was located about 30 km (18 miles) north of Pentecost and 30 km south of Maewo, according to the Vanuatu Meteorology & Geohazards Department. “Lola has moved in a southwest direction at 18 km/h (11 mph) in the past 3 hours. The central pressure of the system is estimated at 941 hPa.” Winds close to the center are estimated at 165 km/h (100 mph), gusting up to 189 km/h (117 mph) within 30 km (18 miles) from the center of the system. Very destructive hurricane-force winds of 230 km/h (140 mph), gusting to 320 km/h (200 mph) are expected to affect Torba, Sanma, and Penama in the next 24 hours. Destructive storm force winds of 185 km/h (115 mph) gusting to 265 km/h (165 mph) are within 166 km (103 miles) from the center of the system and will affect Torba, Sanma, Penama, Malampa, and Shefa later today. Damaging gale force winds of 93 km/h (58 mph) with gusts up to 105 km/h (65 mph) are between 74 to 185 km (45 to 115 miles) from the center of the system and will continue to affect Torba, Sanma, Penama, Malampa, and Shefa province today as well. Heavy rainfalls with flash flooding are expected over low-lying areas and areas close to river banks, including coastal flooding over the Vanuatu group today and continuing tomorrow. Very rough seas with heavy to phenomenal swells are expected over all Vanuatu waters. Marine strong wind warning is current for all Vanuatu waters. Storm surge is expected along the eastern coastlines of the affected Northern islands. High Seas Wind Warning is also current for the Northern Quadrants of Vanuatu. People, including seagoing vessels, are advised to take extra precautions. The office of the NDMO advises that a Red Alert is now in effect for Torba, Sanma, Penama, Malampa, and Shefa, and a Blue alert for Tafea Province.

Tropical Cyclone “Tej” to rapidly intensify as it heads toward the Yemen - Oman border region - Tropical Cyclone “Tej” is heading toward the Yemen – Oman border region, where landfall is expected late October 24 or early October 25, 2023. Tej is the 3rd named storm of the 2023 North Indian Ocean cyclone season. The center of Tropical Cyclone “Tej” was located about 550 km (342 miles) ESE of Hadibu in Socotra, Yemen, 890 km (552 miles) SSE of Salalah in Oman, 1 117 km (694 miles) ESE of Mukalla in Yemen, and 1 376 km (855 miles) S of Al Ashkharah in Oman, as of 09:00 UTC on October 21, 2023. According to the JTWC, it had maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h (60 mph) and was moving WNW at 17 km/h (10 mph). According to the JTWC, Tej will rapidly intensify to a peak of 205 km/h (125 mph) by 18:00 UTC on October 22. Afterward, significant dry air intrusion off the Arabian Peninsula will rapidly weaken the system as it approaches the eastern coast of Yemen. According to the unofficial forecast made by the Indo-Pacific Tropical Cyclone Warning Center, Tej has already intensified into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm at 09:00 UTC — with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (75 mph) and minimum central pressure of 986 hPa. Strong winds and heavy rainfall are expected in Socotra, Yemen on October 22 as the system moves east of the island. Interests on Socotra Island and mainland Yemen near the border with Oman as well as those in far southwestern Oman should monitor this system. Tropical cyclone watches may need to be issued soon.

Scotland’s agricultural sector heavily impacted by Storm Babet - Entire crops were lost and farmlands inundated as Storm Babet struck Scotland between October 19 and 22, 2023. The River Esk in Brechin overflowed its 3.8 m (12.5 feet) high flood walls, leading to unprecedented flooding in areas like Angus and Perthshire. Storm Babet’s impact on Scotland’s agricultural sector from October 19 to 22, 2023, was catastrophic, with entire crops being wiped out and severe flooding affecting farmlands and storage facilities. Notably, the River Esk in Brechin reached alarming water levels of 5 m, well beyond the flood walls that stand at 3.8 m (12.5 feet). Amy Geddes, an arable farmer from Wester Braikie Farms near Arbroath, Angus, shared reports from NFU Scotland’s eastern Scotland WhatsApp group, describing the situation as “awful” and “heartbreaking.” Geddes noted, “Potato stores along the River Esk area will be severely flooded by now. Farms have lost entire crops. The Southesk Estate in Angus will be absolutely devastated.” The situation was further exacerbated by a history of recent flooding in Scotland. Earlier this month, rural areas had already sustained significant damage due to extensive flooding, making farms and rural dwellings more vulnerable to this new wave of extreme weather. Martin Malone, NFU Mutual manager for Scotland, had previously warned about the increasing susceptibility of rural areas to extreme weather conditions. This warning now stands validated as farms across Scotland are counting the costs of Storm Babet’s destruction. The storm not only wreaked havoc in Scotland but also had adverse impacts in other European countries. While the focus remains on the agricultural damage in Scotland, it’s noteworthy that severe flooding and weather warnings were also reported in countries like Ireland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Germany.

Hurricanes are now twice as likely to zip from minor to whopper than decades ago, study says -- With warmer oceans serving as fuel, Atlantic hurricanes are now more than twice as likely as before to rapidly intensify from wimpy minor hurricanes to powerful and catastrophic, a study said Thursday. Last month Hurricane Lee went from barely a hurricane at 80 mph (129 kph) to the most powerful Category 5 hurricane with 155 mph (249 kph) winds in 24 hours. In 2017, before it devastated Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria went from a Category 1 storm with 90 mph (145 kph) to a top-of-the-chart whopper with 160 mph (257 kph) winds in just 15 hours. The study looked at 830 Atlantic tropical cyclones since 1971. It found that in the last 20 years, 8.1% of the time storms powered from a Category 1 minor storm to a major hurricane in just 24 hours. That happened only 3.2% of the time from 1971 to 1990, according to a study in the journal Scientific Reports. Category 1 hurricanes top out at 95 mph (153 kph) and a hurricane has to have at least 111 mph (178 kph) winds to become major. Those are the most extreme cases, but the fact that the rate of such turbocharging has more than doubled is disturbing, said study author Andra Garner, a climate scientist at Rowan University in New Jersey. When storms rapidly intensify, especially as they near land, it makes it difficult for people in the storm's path to decide on what they should do—evacuate or hunker down. It also makes it harder for meteorologists to predict how bad it will be and for emergency managers to prepare, Garner and other scientists said. "We know that our strongest, most damaging storms very often do intensify very quickly at some point in their lifetimes," Garner said, highlighting 2017's Maria, which some researchers said killed nearly 3,000 people directly and indirectly. "We're talking about something that's hard to predict that certainly can lead to a more destructive storm."

Climate disasters did nearly $400 million in damage daily for 20 years: research -- Climate change-driven disasters have caused damages equivalent to $391 million a day for 20 years, according to projections published in the journal Nature Communications. Researchers determined that between 2000 and 2019, climate disasters such as droughts and heatwaves did about $143 billion of damage annually. They attributed 63 percent of those damages — $90 billion — to loss of human lives, and the remainder predominantly to property damage. Researchers noted that the projections also fail to capture indirect impacts that “may be significant.” As an example, they cited the impacts of air pollution in the northeastern U.S. from Canada’s 2023 wildfires, although those occurred outside the research’s date range. Their methodology cannot “account for these indirect losses, even though these could conceivably be orders of magnitude larger than the original damage wrought by these events (and were likely much larger in this specific case),” researchers wrote. On a year-by-year basis, the highest costs from climate change were in 2008, when researchers put costs at $620 billion. Other high points occurred in 2003 and 2010. These peaks, the researchers noted, were driven by particularly high-casualty climate events in those years. For example, 2008 saw Tropical Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, which killed an estimated 84,537 people, while in 2003, a European heatwave caused an estimated 70,000 deaths. Excluding loss of life from the equation changes the years when damages peaked. Under this formula, the peaks were in 2005, when Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma did $123 billion in financial damages, and 2017, when Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria did $139 billion in damages. Notably, all of these storms hit the United States, suggesting that while the U.S. has suffered some of the most expensive climate disasters, the deadliest occurred elsewhere. The date range for the research ends before 2023, which saw the hottest summer ever recorded. Recent years have also seen further heatwaves in Europe, as well as similar extreme heat in the Pacific Northwest, which, like Europe, is not acclimated to such temperatures, meaning numerous residents do not have air conditioning.

Earth Started Getting Less Green 20 Years Ago -- The world is gradually becoming less green, scientists have found. Plant growth is declining all over the planet, and new research links the phenomenon to decreasing moisture in the air—a consequence of climate change. The study published yesterday in Science Advances points to satellite observations that revealed expanding vegetation worldwide during much of the 1980s and 1990s. But then, about 20 years ago, the trend stopped. Since then, more than half of the world’s vegetated landscapes have been experiencing a “browning” trend, or decrease in plant growth, according to the authors. Climate records suggest the declines are associated with a metric known as vapor pressure deficit—that’s the difference between the amount of moisture the air actually holds versus the maximum amount of moisture it could be holding. A high deficit is sometimes referred to as an atmospheric drought.Since the late 1990s, more than half of the world’s vegetated landscapes have experienced a growing deficit, or drying pattern. Climate models indicate that vapor pressure deficit is likely to continue increasing as the world warms—a pattern that “might have a substantially negative impact on vegetation,” the authors write. It’s not the first study to document the global decline in vegetation. A 2010 study in Science was among the first to demonstrate that the greening increases of the 1990s had stalled or reversed. That study also suggested that the declines were probably water-related. That’s not to say every last corner of Earth is losing its vegetation. Some recent studies have revealed that parts of the Arctic are “greening” as the chilly landscape warms. And there’s increasing plant growth still happening in other regions of the world, as well.

Global Warming Is Accelerating - I’ve written quite a lot about this lately (for example, here), but it can’t be said enough. Global warming is accelerating. 2023 is the warmest year on record, and by a lot. The following, by climate writer and scientist Zeke Hausfather, presents the case clearly. First, an explanation of scientists’ new ability to track daily global temperatures: While global temperature records are not yet in for the full month of October 2023, real-time reanalysis products increasingly allow scientists to track global temperatures on a daily basis. Reanalysis pulls together a huge amount of data from satellites, weather balloons, aeroplanes, weather stations, ships and buoys to provide a detailed look at how the Earth’s climate is changing in real-time. Modern reanalysis products, such as JRA-55 and ERA5, use state-of-the-art methods to produce records that align well with traditional surface temperature datasets over recent decades. Now the results of that data. Note that the start point goes quite a way back, to 1958.The figure below shows the daily global temperature anomaly values from the JRA-55 reanalysis product for each day since the record began in 1958 (grey lines). It shows the current year to date (2023) in red and the prior record warm year, 2016, in blue. Nearly every single day since mid-June 2023 has been warmer than any prior days since the JRA-55 record began in 1958 – and, potentially, much further into the past. [emphasis added]This is the figure:Daily global mean surface temperature anomalies from the JRA-55 reanalysis product, using its standard 1991-2020 baseline period. Lines show global surface temperature anomalies for each day since the record began in 1958 (grey), the current year of 2023 to date (red) and the previous record warm year in 2016 (blue).Again, nearly every single day since mid-June 2023 has been warmer than any equivalent day since 1958. That is, this July 1 was the warmest July 1, this July 2 was the warmest July 2, and so on. By a lot.The Antarctic is also in trouble. From climate scientist Zack Labe (whose Twitter feed is a godsend):More on the Western Antarctic glacier here. When that ice turns to water, it will add ten feet to global sea level rise. It’s going to be interesting to watch folks figure out how to move New York, and where to move it to. It will also to be interesting to watch as they realize, New York will need to be moved.You would think at some point someone would seize the wheel from the global leaders steering our global Titanic. But they’ve locked themselves in the bridge, and the ship still chugs to its destined fatal encounter.There’s a conclusion to draw from this, about what we should do do. I’ll let you draw it.

Earth’s ‘vital signs’ worse than at any time in human history, scientists warn -Earth’s “vital signs” are worse than at any time in human history, an international team of scientists has warned, meaning life on the planet is in peril. Their report found that 20 of the 35 planetary vital signs they use to track the climate crisis are at record extremes. As well as greenhouse gas emissions, global temperature and sea level rise, the indicators also include human and livestock population numbers. Many climate records were broken by enormous margins in 2023, including global air temperature, ocean temperature and Antarctic sea ice extent, the researchers said. The highest monthly surface temperature ever recorded was in July and was probably the hottest the planet has been in 100,000 years. The scientists also highlighted an extraordinary wildfire season in Canada that produced unprecedented carbon dioxide emissions. These totalled 1bn tonnes of CO2, equivalent to the entire annual output of Japan, the world’s fifth biggest polluter. They said the huge area burned could indicate a tipping point into a new fire regime. The researchers urged a transition to a global economy that prioritised human wellbeing and cut the overconsumption and excessive emissions of the rich. The top 10% of emitters were responsible for almost 50% of global emissions in 2019, they said. Dr Christopher Wolf, at Oregon State University (OSU) in the US and a lead author of the report, said: “Without actions that address the root problem of humanity taking more from Earth than it can safely give, we’re on our way to the potential collapse of natural and socioeconomic systems and a world with unbearable heat and shortages of food and freshwater. “By 2100, as many as 3 billion to 6 billion people may find themselves outside Earth’s livable regions, meaning they will be encountering severe heat, limited food availability and elevated mortality rates.” Prof William Ripple, also at OSU, said: “Life on our planet is clearly under siege. The statistical trends show deeply alarming patterns of climate-related variables and disasters. We also found little progress to report as far as humanity combating climate change. “Our goal is to communicate climate facts and make policy recommendations. It is a moral duty of scientists and our institutions to alert humanity of any potential existential threat and to show leadership in taking action.” The analysis, published in the journal Bioscience, is an update of a 2019 report that has been endorsed by 15,000 scientists.

Humanity at ‘code red,’ facing climate emergency, scientists warn | A coalition of thousands of scientists has updated its 2019 World Scientists Warning of a Climate Emergency, saying the earth is entering “uncharted territory” with its capacity to support life “under siege.” In the report, the more than 15,000 signers wrote that the recent shattering of numerous temperature records indicate serious threats to the planet’s “vital signs.” The term refers to 35 indicators, ranging from human population and energy consumption to Brazilian Amazon rainforest loss. Twenty of these vital signs are currently displaying record extremes, according to the report. Three of the central greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane, are all at record levels, according to the warning, and average global CO2 concentration is far above the recommended boundary of 350 parts per million. The authors also note that 2023 saw its hottest summer on record and is likely to rank among the hottest overall years ever recorded. Last year, the warning notes, featured the third-highest frequency of extremely hot days relative to 1961-1990 ever recorded. Ocean acidity, glacier thickness and Greenland ice mass have all reached all-time lows, while the oceans are warmer than ever, which could have downstream effects ranging from sea life loss to intensified tropical storms of the type the planet has already seen. Extreme weather in 2023 indicates that threats are emerging in atypical areas, such as flooding in northern China and a storm in the Mediterranean that killed thousands, predominantly Libyans. The warning also notes that despite hopes in some quarters for a “green recovery,” fossil fuel use skyrocketed after the lifting of COVID-19-related closures. Renewable energy consumption grew 17 percent between 2021 and 2022, but fossil fuel energy consumption is still about 15 times greater, and while the Russian invasion of Ukraine has hastened the transition to renewables in parts of Europe, some countries may eventually supplant the loss of Russian gas with coal. Fossil fuel subsidies have increased 107 percent since the invasion..

Earth on Brink of Tipping Points That Could 'Destroy Very Systems Our Life Depends On': Report -Human activity is pushing Earth to the brink of major "risk tipping points" that, if triggered, could have catastrophic impacts on life-sustaining ecosystems, warns a report released Wednesday by the United Nations University's Institute for Environment and Human Security.The new report identifies six risk tipping points that human actions, principally the burning of fossil fuels, have introduced and intensified: accelerating species extinctions, groundwater depletion, mountain glacier melting, space debris, unbearable heat, and an uninsurable future.Distinct from "climate tipping points" signifying when major changes to the climate system become unstoppable, risk tipping points "are not always physical, and climate change is just one of the many drivers of risk," the report explains."Many new risks emerge when and where our physical and natural worlds interconnect with human society," the report states. "A risk tipping point is the moment at which a given socioecological system is no longer able to buffer risks and provide its expected functions, after which the risk of catastrophic impacts to these systems increases substantially."Dr. Zita Sebesvar, the lead author of the new report, said that "as we indiscriminately extract our water resources, damage nature and biodiversity, and pollute both Earth and space, we are moving dangerously close to the brink of multiple risk tipping points that could destroy the very systems that our life depends on.""Additionally, we also lose some of our tools and options to deal with future disaster risk," Sebesvar added.The report stresses that the risk tipping points it examines are not a "theoretical threat," and their impacts could have—and are already having—ripple effects across interconnected systems.For example, the report notes that the current species extinction rate is "at least tens to hundreds of times higher" than it would typically be due to human activity. Because ecosystems are "built on intricate networks of connections between different species," the report says, the extinction of dependent species can set off "a chain reaction of extinctions that could end in the ecosystem’s collapse."When mountain glaciers retreat due to warming temperatures, the report adds, their ice "gradually melts and increases the amount of water flowing to the river basin.""With more meltwater, the risk of flooding downstream increases. In some cases, this can lead to 'glacial lake outburst floods,' in which a natural dam fails and suddenly releases meltwater with devastating consequences," the report observes. "Eventually, the glacier experiences its highest amount of melting and produces the maximum volume of water runoff, known as 'peak water.' After this point, freshwater availability will steadily decline."

Earth close to ‘risk tipping points’ that will damage our ability to deal with climate crisis, warns UN -Humanity is moving dangerously close to irreversible tipping points that would drastically damage our ability to cope with disasters, UN researchers have warned, including the withdrawal of home insurance from flood-hit areas and the drying up of the groundwater that is vital for ensuring food supplies.These “risk tipping points” also include the loss of the mountain glaciers that are essential for water supplies in many parts of the world and accumulating space debris knocking out satellites that provide early warnings of extreme weather. A new report from the UN University (UNU) in Germany has set out a series of risk tipping points that are approaching, but said having foresight of these meant that it remained possible to take action to prevent them. Tipping points are triggered by small increases in their driving force but rapidly lead to large impacts.The risk tipping points are different from the climate tipping points the world is on the brink of, including the collapse of Amazon rainforest and the shutdown of a key Atlantic Ocean current. The climate tipping points are large-scale changes driven by human-caused global heating, while the risk tipping points are more directly connected to people’s lives via complex social and ecological systems.“As we indiscriminately extract our water resources, damage nature, and pollute both Earth and space, we are moving dangerously close to the brink of multiple risk tipping points that could destroy the very systems that our life depends on,” said Dr Zita Sebesvari, at UNU’s Institute for Environment and Human Security. “We are changing the entire risk landscape and losing our tools to manage risk.”The report examines six examples of risk tipping points, including the point when building insurance becomes unavailable or unaffordable. This leaves people without an economic safety net when disasters strike, compounding their difficulties, particularly for the poor and vulnerable. The climate crisis is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weatherand, for example, a major insurer has already stopped insuring properties in California, due to “rapidly growing catastrophe exposure”, particularly wildfires. Insurance premiums have also soared in Florida, and six insurers in the state have gone bust due to climate-related floods and hurricanes. The report also said half a million Australian homes are estimated to be uninsurable by 2030, primarily due to increasing flood risk.Another risk tipping point examined in the report is when groundwater aquifers are overexploited to the point that the wells run dry. Aquifers currently prevent half the losses to food production caused by droughts, which are expected to become more frequent due to global heating, the report said.More than half of the world’s major aquifers are already being depleted faster than they can be naturally refilled, the report said. If they suddenly dry up, entire food production systems are at risk of failure.The groundwater risk tipping point has already been passed in some countries, such as Saudi Arabia, and is close in India, the report said. Saudi Arabia was a major wheat exporter in the 1990s but now imports the cereal after the groundwater wells were exhausted.The other risk tipping points covered by the report were the point when water supplies from melting mountain glaciers start to decline; when Earth’s orbit becomes so full of debris that one collision with a satellite sets off a chain reaction; when heatwaves pass the point when natural sweating can cool the human body; and when losses of interdependent wildlife species snowball into the collapse of an ecosystem.

Johnson brings pro-oil, climate-skeptical record to speakership - Newly minted House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who won the gavel Wednesday after three prior Republican nominees failed to reach a majority, is a longtime ally of the oil industry and will be perhaps the most vocal skeptic of the scientific consensus on climate change ever to hold the speakership. Johnson, whose district includes the onetime oil industry hub of Shreveport, received a 100 percent rating from the pro-fossil fuel American Energy Alliance in 2022, along with every other Republican in Louisiana’s House delegation. The lobbying group had earlier endorsed Johnson’s fellow Louisianan, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who bowed out of the race for Speaker on Oct. 12 after failing to consolidate the necessary 217 votes. Individuals and PACs associated with the oil and gas industry have donated $23,800 to Johnson in the 2023-24 campaign cycle, the largest amount he received from any group save retired donors, according to data from OpenSecrets.org. In the 2021-22 cycle, the sector donated $84,350. In 2017, Johnson denied human-caused climate change at a town hall, telling attendees, “The climate is changing, but the question is, is it being caused by natural cycles over the span of the Earth’s history? Or is it changing because we drive SUVs? I don’t believe in the latter. I don’t think that’s the primary driver.” Johnson has a lifetime score of 2 percent on climate and environmental issues from the League of Conservation Voters (LCV), which excoriated him in a statement following his election. “Johnson has led attacks on our elections, denied that climate change is a result of fossil fuels and polluters, and appears poised to continue to cater to Big Oil and Gas allies as Speaker,” LCV Senior Vice President of Government Affairs Tiernan Sittenfeld said in a statement Wednesday. House Science Committee Ranking Member Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) called Johnson’s record on climate change “alarming” in a statement to The Hill. “It’s alarming the speaker is not on board for climate solutions,” Lofgren said. “That poses risks for our urgent need to deal with our climate and energy challenges.”

Inside the Campaign That Put an Oil Boss in Charge of COP28 - JOHN KERRY LOOKED on from the front row as Sultan Al Jaber of the United Arab Emirates took to the stage in Abu Dhabi in January. Next to Kerry on the plush white chairs reserved for VIPs were senior figures from the Emirati, British, and U.S. governments. It was Al Jaber’s first public appearance since being appointed president of this year’s Conference of the Parties, COP28, the United Nations annual climate summit. Al Jaber wore a sage green kandura, round glasses, and a white headdress. He spoke slowly and deliberately, laying out his vision for COP28, which will be held in the UAE in December. But his assured manner belied the barrage of criticism he was facing in the press. Al Jaber is not just this year’s COP president. He also heads the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, known as Adnoc. It is the first time any CEO, let alone one from the fossil fuel industry, has been COP president. The announcement was met with fury from climate activists. Kerry, meanwhile, the U.S. special presidential envoy for climate, appeared nonplussed. During his speech at the Global Energy Forum — an event the Atlantic Council, an American think tank, has hosted in the UAE for the past six years — Al Jaber said that when the time comes, the oil-rich nation will celebrate “the last barrel of oil.” He spoke about his time leading the UAE’s state-owned renewable energy company Masdar and called for “practical solutions” to the climate crisis at COP28. What he didn’t say was that as CEO of Adnoc, he is currently overseeing a major expansion of the company’s oil and gas output. And the oil company’s staff has played a critical role in shaping the summit. At least a dozen Adnoc employees have been appointed to roles on the hosting team, including two staffers designated as negotiators for the UAE. The fossil fuel industry has been deeply involved in the annual COPs since they began in the 1990s, sending hundreds of lobbyists each year, as The Intercept previously reported. But this year, the industry is closer than ever to one of the most important international climate forums. Al Jaber’s first speech as COP28 president had many of the hallmarks of his closely choreographed public appearances: an event organized by a respected international institution; foreign dignitaries in the audience; no questions afterward. It was followed by a press release sent out to scores of journalists by Edelman, a major U.S. public relations firm. Al Jaber’s reputation has been shaped by some of the world’s most influential PR agencies, which have used his roles as CEO and chair of the UAE’s renewable energy company and visionary behind the futuristic Masdar City to make him the face of the country’s fight against climate change.

Scuttled CO2 pipeline renews debate about state hurdles - The cancellation of a major carbon dioxide pipeline Friday rippled far beyond the Corn Belt, raising questions about the fate of similar projects and the viability of carbon capture technology at the scale envisioned by the Biden administration. Opponents celebrated Navigator CO2 Ventures’ decision to scuttle the 1,300-mile Midwestern project weeks after a permit application was rejected by South Dakota regulators. Supporters lamented the company’s decision to cancel the Heartland Greenway pipeline — and at least one rival developer appears primed to pick up some of the pieces. Less clear are the implications for the future of carbon pipelines, infrastructure viewed by many experts as a necessity to enable wider use of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and other emerging technologies. That’s in part because only certain regions of the country have geology required to sequester CO2 deep underground. The Department of Energy has said CCS is key to avoiding the worst consequences of climate change. While federal regulators oversee most aspects of CO2 pipeline safety, state-level approval is key and has been a challenge for regulators in many states, said Martin Lockman, a fellow at Columbia University Law School’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law. Permitting also can vary significantly from state to state, adding to the complexity and development timelines for multistate projects. “The legal framework governing CO2 pipelines is heavily fragmented and often uncertain,” Lockman said. “In many states, it is unclear how existing laws should be applied to these kinds of projects, and many state regulators have very limited experience with CO2 pipelines.” Lockman last month published a paper looking at the state and federal permitting for CO2 pipelines to support direct air capture hubs and barriers to their development. “Uncertainty and delay around these permits can make financing expensive or impossible,” he said in an interview. “This can be absolutely fatal to pipeline projects.” Advocates for carbon capture like Madelyn Morrison, director of government affairs at the Carbon Capture Coalition, said the technology and related infrastructure are vital to meeting the nation’s climate goals. According to DOE, Biden’s goal of a net-zero U.S. economy by 2050 will require capturing and storing 400 million to 1.8 billion million metric tons of CO2 annually through CCS and carbon removal technology such as direct air capture. DOE estimates 30,000 to 96,000 miles of pipeline could be needed to link capture sites with geologic storage. There’s only about 5,000 miles of CO2 pipeline in operation today in the United States. Morrison pointed to the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law and last year’s Inflation Reduction Act that provided incentives such as an increase in the federal 45Q tax credit for permanent geologic storage of CO2 to $85 per metric ton. The tax credits, along with low-carbon fuel standards adopted in California and elsewhere on the West Coast, supercharged interest in CO2 capture at Midwest ethanol plants and developers’ plans to build pipelines from the plants to geologic storage sites. Iowa-based Summit Carbon Solutions is planning about 2,000 miles of CO2 pipeline across five states. And Wolf Carbon Solutions U.S. is developing a 350-mile network in coordination with Archer-Daniels-Midland. Plans for Navigator’s Heartland Greenway pipeline spanned 1,300 miles and five states. The company said its decision to scrap the project was based on the “unpredictable nature of the regulatory and government processes” in two of the five states it would cross: Iowa and South Dakota. The other states in the project included Illinois, Minnesota and Nebraska.

Oil giant quietly ditches the world’s biggest carbon capture plant - The world wants to master the process of corralling carbon, and Occidental Petroleum Corp is building a futuristic machine on the dusty plains of Texas designed to do just that. The billion-dollar complex, called Stratos, will suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and bury it deep underground. Amazon.com Inc, Shopify Inc, Airbus SE and the Houston Texans football team are among the businesses signed up to pay by the tonne for captured carbon long before the site is operational. US President Joe Biden is putting hundreds of millions of dollars behind the technology. Occidental chief executive officer Vicki Hollub has spent US$1.1bil buying the startup behind Stratos and, after successfully lobbying for government support, intends to build 100 plants just like it. Warren Buffett, Occidental’s biggest investor, has given his tacit blessing. This is not the first time Occidental has bet big on technology to manage carbon. A mega-plant for carbon capture and storage, a facility named Century located about 160km from Stratos, was built by the oil giant in 2010. At the time, it was set to become the biggest-ever example of carbon capture, representing more than 20% of global capacity. Unlike the newer technology used in Stratos, known as direct air capture (DAC), Century pulls CO2 from a dedicated source of emissions. It’s built into a natural gas processing plant. That older process is both better established and much cheaper than the newer machines built to suck CO2 from the air. There’s also the added advantage of a more direct business application, with Oxy deploying recovered CO2 from the gas plant as a tool to produce even more oil. But that older facility, with simpler technology and a production-linked incentive, has consistently failed to deliver results. A Bloomberg Green investigation has revealed that Century never operated at more than a third of its capacity in the 13 years it’s been running. The technology worked, but the economics didn’t hold up because of the limited gas supplied from a nearby field, leading to disuse and eventual divestment. Oxy quietly sold off the project last year for a fraction of the build cost. It was a far cry from the fanfare the company made in the plant’s early years and the anticipation that’s been building for Stratos.

Hydrogen is coming to Pennsylvania. Now what? - The Allegheny Front --President Biden’s announcement last Thursday that Pennsylvania would get parts of two federally-funded hydrogen hubs struck Rich Negrin as a stroke of good luck. “I don’t want to put too fine a point on it. I think it’s the dawn of a clean energy economy that we’ve been talking about for years,” Negrin said, Negrin is the secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and the former city manager of Philadelphia. He was part of the team that presented a proposal for one of the winning bids, the Mid-Atlantic Clean Hydrogen Hub (MACH2), at the White House in July. MACH2 is based out of Philadelphia, Southern New Jersey, and Delaware. It is one of seven hubs across the nation that will be funded with $7 billion from Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law of 2021. If built, MACH2 would provide 20,000 construction jobs. “It looks like great new skills, jobs. It looks like manufacturing, delivering, utilizing hydrogen in a meaningful way for the first time ever. And it’s going to happen right here, first in Pennsylvania,” Negrin said.Around the country, politicians in regions that had landed hydrogen hubs were lauding the decision. Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia released a video framing the Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub (ARCH2) as a new kind of industrial revolution for his state. The hubs are part of Biden’s push to get the US economy to be carbon neutral by 2050, a necessity, scientists say, to stave off cataclysmic climate change. The odorless, colorless gas emits zero carbon when it’s used to create energy, either through combustion or in a fuel cell. That’s why it is considered a potential alternative to fossil fuels – the main cause of global warming – in a zero-carbon economy. But isolating it takes a lot of energy. Right now, hydrogen that’s used in oil refining and fertilizers is extracted from natural gas at high temperatures. But that process is a big climate polluter.“You can use it to decarbonize a whole range of potential industries, particularly ones that are difficult to decarbonize otherwise, like cement and steel and plastics manufacturing,” said Walters. “Think the building sector, think power generation, think transportation, and think manufacturing and heavy industry.”But right now, almost none of these industries use hydrogen. That’s where the concept of the hydrogen hub comes in. Each of the hubs would produce “clean” hydrogen using a variety of methods. They would also build facilities that can store, distribute and use hydrogen.The MACH2 hub, based in Philadelphia, would use nuclear, solar and offshore wind energy to create hydrogen through electrolysis, a method by which electricity is used to extract hydrogen from water.To the west, the West Virginia-based ARCH2 will make hydrogen out of natural gas, and bury the resulting carbon dioxide emissions underground. This method is called blue hydrogen.ARCH2 would include projects in Western Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky, according to the Department of Energy. The consortium is led by the state of West Virginia and Pittsburgh-based gas driller EQT.Environmental groups say blue hydrogen will create more demand for fracking, which carries its own environmental and public health risks. They’re also skeptical about how climate-friendly it will be if greenhouse gases from fracking and hydrogen processes leak out during production. “It would perpetuate the fossil fuel industry rather than help us wean (ourselves) from fossil fuels,” said Jim Kotcon, chair of the West Virginia chapter of the Sierra Club.Each hub will have to produce a community benefits agreement, but Kotcon said there’s been little information shared with the public about what these projects would entail. “We really do think that in order to avoid some of the environmental justice concerns, ARCH2 really needs to get our community benefits plan out into the open and tell us what’s going on.” The Department of Treasury is currently writing rules over just how clean these projects need to be to qualify for the tax credits. If they’re not strict enough, many worry all this money will go to projects that don’t lower our greenhouse gas footprint. Others, like Manchin and Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, want the rules to be looser, to encourage more private investment into the hubs.

Officials celebrate Pa.’s two hydrogen hubs but many details remain shrouded in secrecy · Spotlight PA — Pennsylvania officials are celebrating the Biden administration’s announcement that it will invest $1.6 billion to build hydrogen hubs partially located in the state to cut carbon pollution and fight climate change. While the major features of the plans have been made public, critical details that will determine exactly how environmentally friendly the projects will be and the impact they will have on local communities remain shrouded in secrecy. These uncertainties have been a source of consternation for environmental advocates, who caution that while hydrogen is a clean-burning fuel, it can be produced in ways that are just as bad for the environment as fossil fuels, or even worse. At the highest levels of Pennsylvania government, officials are largely brushing off concerns and are instead celebrating the potential for hydrogen hubs to create new construction jobs and scientific industries. “Those who are attacking this project, they're standing in the way of real progress,” Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro said at a recent event in Philadelphia. As part of the 2021 federal Infrastructure and Investment Jobs Act, the Department of Energy is allocating $7 billion to help fund up to ten hydrogen hubs across the country. Teams that aim to build two hubs partly in Pennsylvania are getting more than $1.6 billion. The Mid-Atlantic Clean Hydrogen Hub, which will primarily be located in Delaware and stretch into Southeast Pennsylvania, is set to receive up to $925 million from the feds. The Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub, which will include part of Western Pennsylvania, will receive up to $750 million. Both hubs have disclosed the names of some of the energy companies, unions, and officials backing them, and the basics about how they plan to produce hydrogen. However, many critical details about the latter are still unknown. As of today, the public doesn’t know exactly what the hubs are planning to build, what existing infrastructure — like old pipelines or oil refineries — they are planning to retrofit, and the exact location of any of this planned infrastructure. The reason why this key information remains secret is that the Department of Energy hasn’t released the hubs’ applications, and has mandated little public disclosure regarding the details of the plans, according to Budden of the NRDC. Specifically, he pointed to non-commercially sensitive information about greenhouse gas emissions, community impact, and the effects on air and water quality. The groups behind the hubs themselves have also declined to disclose the details of the plans, claiming they include sensitive proprietary information. The Mid-Atlantic Clean Hydrogen Hub, also called MACH2, will be located in Delaware and parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania. It will receive up to $925 million in federal funds. “Core team” members for MACH2 include representatives from Philadelphia Gas Works and Steamfitters Local 240. According to the Department of Energy, MACH2 is expected to create over 20,000 jobs — 14,400 in construction and 6,400 permanent jobs that involve plant operation. MACH2 will produce predominantly green and pink hydrogen, according to its website. Advocates for aggressive emission reductions see green hydrogen as the gold standard. This process strictly uses electricity from renewables like wind and solar to separate hydrogen from water, thereby creating no emissions and rendering carbon capture unnecessary. Pink hydrogen uses nuclear power. The hub will also use “steam methane reforming with carbon capture” during “early phases of development,” according to a briefing circulated by MACH2 core team member Dora Cheatham, who also serves as executive director of the Delaware Sustainable Chemistry Alliance. In that process, methane from natural gas is slowly heated with steam to produce hydrogen as well as other byproducts. Environmental advocates worry that this use of methane will simply perpetuate reliance on natural gas. A spokesperson for MACH2 said there will be a single orange hydrogen project, a process that pumps water into deep iron-rich rock formations. In total, MACH2 claims that it will reduce carbon emissions, though it does not explain in publicly available materials how this will occur.

Mapping the hydrogen hub in the midst of 'environmental justice' communities -A map is a statement — about how things are, or how they should or could be. In Pennsylvania communities that have a legacy of energy production, several recently released maps are duking it out with billions of dollars at stake.One map shows the rough locations and vague project categories slated for the Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub, or Arch2, which was selected recently as one of seven hydrogen hubs to be funded by the U.S. Department of Energy.Over the next dozen years, the hydrogen hub could receive up to $950 million — just a fraction of the private investment that will be needed to build out an industrial ecosystem spanning West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Kentucky to support the hub. The federal clean hydrogen hub program is intended to jumpstart a hydrogen economy and ease the transition away from carbon-based fuels such as coal, oil and gas. Another map — dynamic to the point of browser overload — is the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s new PennEnviroScreen. It shows environmental justice communities, which the DEP designates as the top 20% of Census tracts ranked by pollution burden and demographic features, such poverty, poor health outcomes and race. An environmental justice community has a vulnerable population and a disproportionate share of environmental impacts. Swissvale, for example, with high rates of asthma and disability, low income residents and poor air quality, has a score of 99. Nearby Edgewood also has poor air quality. But the health and wealth of its residents results in a score of nine. The DEP unveiled its new tool as a guide for its revised environmental justice policy. The agency plans to use the map to prioritize inspections and enforcement, and solicit greater community input in permitting decisions. Here is the rub. Creating a hydrogen hub is all about clustering facilities together — in close proximity or through pipelines and wires and truck and rail routes. Environmental justice is about preventing communities from becoming overburdened by clusters of industrial pollution.The tension between the two is obvious. And while every dollar of hydrogen hub funding comes with environmental justice conditions — this is now true for much of the money granted through through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 — the speed with which public and private money flows may be faster than the time it takes to build an environmental justice framework that could actually impact where hydrogen hub facilities are sited. “The idea of this equitable industrial development is relatively new here in the U.S.,” said Madeline Schomburg, director of research at the D.C.-based Energy Futures Foundation, during a discussion of clean energy development hosted by Appalachian Energy Future in May. Appalachian Energy Future, a nonprofit that was organized to convene groups interested in pursuing hydrogen hub projects in the Tri-State area, contracted with the Energy Futures Foundation to come up with a regional environmental justice strategy.“The oil and gas industry has been the source of a lot of frustration for communities over the years. And a lot of burdens,” Ms. Schomburg said during that webinar in May. “And the relationship-building that needs to repair that does not operate on the same time scale as the urgency of climate change.” The oil and gas industry is central to the Arch2 hub plan, which envisions establishing half a dozen facilities that would make hydrogen from natural gas with resulting carbon dioxide emissions captured and stored underground.

Carbon storage landmen expected to visit county residents - The Carroll County Messenger -- Commissioner Robert Wirkner reported at the Oct. 19 commissioners meeting he met with representatives from Tenaska, Inc. to discuss carbon storage in the county. “Mandated CO2 compliance regulations are about to be implemented and they will require CO2 to be recaptured when used,” said Wirkner. “This will affect the commissioners and landowners. Emitters of CO2 will be forced to properly mitigate the CO2.” Wirkner said a big emitter for Carroll County is the power plant. Tenaska’s proposal to mitigate CO2 once captured is to store it underground. Storage will be handled like pooled units for oil wells. “A well is drilled but instead of taking a product out, the CO2 is put in,” Wirkner said. The pool unit is expected to be 10,000 to 15,000 acres. Landmen should begin contacting property owners soon. Wirkner said the CO2 is transported by pipeline, not by truck so there shouldn’t be additional traffic. Commissioner Wirkner advised that as long as a pooled unit has CO2 stored, landowners in the unit will receive an annual payment. “If somebody knocks on your door regarding carbon sequestering this is what it is about,” said Wirkner. Tenaska representatives made a presentation to the Carroll County Community Improvement Corporation (CIC) in September 2022. At that time, the company was looking to drill test wells in the area to determine if the geographic makeup of the soil was suitable. During that session, Monte Ten Kley, project manager, explained the process. “Industrial processes emit CO2, which is considered a greenhouse gas. The idea is to capture it and inject it into the ground for storage. Over a period of years, the carbon becomes part of the rock structure. Many industries which utilize CO2 in their manufacturing process consider injection wells as a tool and are looking to build facilities in the area where injection wells are located,” he said. He noted there is a market to sell C02 and the pressure it is injected at is very low, so there is little danger of earthquakes. He also noted wells can be above or below the shale layer in which oil and gas are located and injection does not affect the layers like fracking does.

The trillion-dollar quest to make green steel -— On a hot, dry morning in mid-October, dozens of visitors gathered in a former cotton field turned dusty compound, before a cluster of blue rectangular buildings. A fleet of sleek black vans soon ushered the group — a contingent of local and state officials and a few journalists — to the entrance of a cavernous facility. We’d come to mark the opening of a$450 million production line, which just started making a type of paper-thin steel for use in electric-vehicle motors, power generators and transformers — equipment that’s in high demand as the nation transitions to clean energy. A nearby lunch tent drove home the day’s theme, with tables holding lightning-bolt centerpieces and delicately iced sugar cookies spelling ​“emPOWERing the Green Revolution.”The new plant is part of a multibillion-dollar expansion that U.S. Steel is undertaking at Big River Steel, a sprawling complex on the outskirts of the tiny city of Osceola. The company says the massive undertaking will allow it to supply much more lower-carbon material to automakers, construction firms and other companies looking to clean up their own supply chains.For nearly a decade, Big River Steel has been producing millions of tons of high-strength metal and using electricity to do it — instead of heating purified coal, like the nation’s oldest and most polluting steel furnaces do. Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel acquired the site in 2021, in part, it said to help create a more ​“secure, sustainable future” for the 122-year-old industrial giant.At the steel mill, heaps of recycled metal — from chopped-up cars, washing machines, structural beams and more — are placed inside two enormous ​“electric arc furnaces,” along with small amounts of iron pellets. The furnaces blast a bolt of electricity between internal electrodes, melting the contents into a glowing orange liquid at nearly 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit. Other machines roll the material into sheets and curl it into coils, which are strapped to beds of trains and trucks and hauled across the country.Producing steel this way can curb carbon dioxide emissions by up to 75 percent, compared to traditional coal-based methods, according to the company and industry reports. “The future is toward electrification, and we can make some money with this green steel,” David Burritt, U.S. Steel’s president and CEO, told me.

Cleaning up steel, cement and chemicals is tough — and entirely doable - Three essential materials — steel, cement and chemicals — fortify and infuse our modern world. Though we may not think about them much, they are everywhere: in the walls that surround us, the roads we travel on and most of the everyday products we use. To meet our insatiable demand, factories and refineries worldwide churn out billions of tons of these building blocks every year. Steel, cement and chemicals also represent the world’s top three emitting industries, which together are responsible for more than one-quarter of global carbon dioxide emissions. That percentage is expected to climb in coming decades as global demand increases — and with emissions from other sectors, including power generation and transportation, trending downward as they make strides toward replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.Unlike power plants and vehicles, however, industrial facilities have few straightforward solutions for slashing planet-warming pollution. There’s no electric-car equivalent for a chemical refinery or rooftop-solar version of steel mills.Turning raw iron ore into high-strength steel, making the cement that binds together concrete, and ​“cracking” molecules into millions of different kinds of chemicals are all complex multistep processes that involve burning copious amounts of fossil fuels to generate intense heat. That in turn drives chemical reactions that also release carbon dioxide — what are known as ​“process emissions.” Add to this the fact that kilns, mills and crackers are typically large, capital-intensive facilities designed to operate for decades.For these reasons, climate and energy experts have traditionally described heavy industries as ​“hard-to-abate” or ​“hard-to-decarbonize.” Four other sectors — heavy-duty road transportation, aviation, cargo shipping and aluminum — also fall under that category, but they each represent relatively smaller slices of total CO₂ emissions. Lately, we at Canary Media have noticed a shift in the way that policy leaders and technology developers characterize these gritty, dirty, vital industries. They point out that labeling these sectors as ​“hard” may be giving companies, investors and governments too much of an excuse to delay decarbonization at a time when global temperatures are reaching unprecedented highs. To be sure, transforming these industries will be exceedingly difficult. Decarbonizing iron and steel alone is expected to require $1.4 trillion of investment by 2050. But pathways do exist — some of them available today, some further out on the horizon — for curbing emissions, boosting efficiency and slashing energy use.

Global demand for oil, coal and gas set to peak by 2030, energy agency IEA says - Demand for oil, coal and natural gas is set to peak before the end of this decade, with fossil fuels’ share in the world’s energy supply dropping to 73% by the year 2030 after being “stuck for decades at around 80%,” the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. A transformative shift in how the planet is powered is also underway, with the “phenomenal rise of clean energy technologies” like wind, solar, heat pumps and electric cars playing a crucial role, according to a statement accompanying the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2023 report.Energy related carbon dioxide emissions are also on course to peak by the year 2025.Despite these seismic shifts, the IEA says more effort is required to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, a key goal of the Paris Agreement on climate change. The IEA’s analysis of governments’ “current policy settings” shows the world’s energy system is on course to look very different in the next few years. In its statement, the Paris-based organization said it sees “almost 10 times as many electric cars on the road worldwide” in 2030, with “renewables’ share of the global electricity mix nearing 50%,” higher than the roughly 30% today.Among other things, heat pumps — as well as other electric heating systems — are on course to outsell boilers that use fossil fuels.“If countries deliver on their national energy and climate pledges on time and in full, clean energy progress would move even faster,” the IEA’s statement said.“However, even stronger measures would still be needed to keep alive the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C,” it added.“As things stand, demand for fossil fuels is set to remain far too high to keep within reach the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the rise in average global temperatures to 1.5 °C,” the statement went on to say.In a sign of how high the stakes are, the IEA’s report said its Stated Policies Scenario was now “associated with a temperature rise of 2.4 °C in 2100 (with a 50% probability).”Tuesday’s report reaffirms the content of an op-ed published in September 2023 that was authored by the IEA’s executive director, Fatih Birol, and published in the Financial Times.In remarks published Tuesday, Birol sought to emphasize the huge potential for change while also highlighting the massive amount of work that still needs to be done.“The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable,” he said. “It’s not a question of ‘if’, it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ — and the sooner the better for all of us,” he added.

U.S. Looking to Strengthen Electric Power Grid with $3.5B Investment - The United States plans to invest around $3.5 billion in 58 projects across 44 states to strengthen electric grid resilience and reliability as new energy resources are added. “Extreme weather events fueled by climate change will continue to strain the nation’s aging transmission systems, but President Biden’s Investing in America agenda will ensure America’s power grid can provide reliable, affordable power,” said Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Jennifer Granholm. She added that the investment “represents the largest-ever direct investment in critical grid infrastructure.” Granholm recently said the grid as it currently stands is not equipped to handle all the projected new demand as electrification across the nation intensifies.

Texas ban on non-incumbent transmission is unconstitutional: US solicitor general -- A Texas law banning non-incumbent companies such as NextEra Energy, LS Power and Grid United from building transmission in the state violates the U.S. Constitution’s Commerce Clause, the U.S. solicitor general told the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday.The Supreme Court should reject a request from the Public Utility Commission of Texas and others that it review an appeals court ruling that the state’s law likely violates the dormant Commerce Clause, according to Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar, who represents the U.S. government at the court.“States … have no authority to grant monopolies in the interstate electric transmission markets comparable to their authority to grant monopolies in the market for retail distribution of natural gas,” the solicitor general said. The solicitor general’s brief comes as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is considering broad changes to its transmission planning rules, including whether incumbent utilities should be given a right of first refusal, or ROFR, to build certain regional transmission lines.With the United States possibly on the cusp of a transmission boom to bolster reliability and gain access to renewable energy, billions of dollars are at stake in the fight over who should be able to build that infrastructure. Entergy, ITC Holdings and Xcel Energy’s Southwestern Public Service supported the PUC’s petition in filings at the Supreme Court. In March, the court asked the solicitor general to file a brief on whether the Texas law discriminates against out-of-state economic interests.The action at the Supreme Court stems from an August 2022 ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit that the Texas transmission law likely violates the Commerce Clause, which limits states from interfering in interstate trade, and that a lower court must reconsider its decision that it doesn’t.The appeals court correctly determined that the Texas law — S.B. 1938 — discriminates against interstate commerce by barring any company without an existing in-state presence from competing to build and operate electric transmission facilities that would be part of the interstate transmission grid, the solicitor general said. The appeals court decision doesn’t warrant review by the Supreme Court, partly because FERC is considering changing its rules governing ROFRs as part of a pending overhaul of its transmission planning requirements, according to the solicitor general.\ “If FERC were to adopt the proposed rule (or some alternative) while this case was pending before the court, that development might require supplemental briefing or otherwise complicate this court’s consideration,” the solicitor general said.

Is gas 'clean'? States rebrand energy to meet electricity targets. - States grappling to reach goals for renewables and emissions cuts from the power sector are finding a solution on paper: Rebrand what counts as “clean.” That’s what North Carolina lawmakers did this month when the state’s Republican supermajority overrode a veto from Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, forcing through a law to rebrand nuclear as clean in the state energy mandate. Similar measures that symbolically or legally redefine natural gas and biomass as “clean,” “green” or “renewable” also passed this year in Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia. While some energy rebranding has occurred for years, the recent action comes as states are increasingly being looked to help meet President Joe Biden’s goals to decarbonize the power sector by 2035. How states define what is clean or renewable could determine which energy industries win or lose in the coming years, influence greenhouse gas emissions and shape politics across the country. “Certainly, allowing nuclear to qualify may impact what sets of resources get built,” said Galen Barbose, a Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory staff scientist who studies energy markets. States have moved toward label changes, proponents and analysts say, in part because it’s easier to achieve clean electricity and climate targets when options beyond wind and solar are on the table. In cases like North Carolina’s, rebranding favors fuels traditionally backed by Republicans — and come at a time when many red states are benefiting from federal funding for clean energy projects from the Inflation Reduction Act. Skeptics of energy rebrands have watched the changes closely. Daniel Tait, a research and communication manager for the Energy and Policy Institute who frequently criticizes utilities, said that “when the definitions change and something like gas becomes clean at the state level, that makes a big difference in a lot of places about what gets built going forward.” Nearly 30 states have some type of legally binding renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requiring a percentage of electricity to come from renewables, according to a Berkeley Lab report this year by Barbose. North Carolina’s new law,S.B. 678, widens the state’s existing RPS into a clean electricity standard (CES) to count nuclear power in the definition. Cooper in his veto statement said the measure puts “a thumb on the scale” in North Carolina toward building more power plants “over lower-cost solutions like energy efficiency.” The bill’s main sponsor, Senate Majority Leader Paul Newton, a Republican, had called Cooper’s veto a “slap in the face” before muscling through the measure, which he said would ensure a “reliable electrical grid.” Makeovers like North Carolina’s that broaden what qualifies won’t cut actual climate-warming emissions, clean energy advocates say, or help meet the Biden administration’s goal of a carbon-free U.S. grid by 2035.

White House points to nationwide clean energy jobs growth as IRA success story - In 2022, both energy jobs and clean energy jobs grew in every state and in Washington, D.C., according to the Department of Energy’s annual U.S. Energy and Employment Jobs Report. In a Monday blog, the White House cited this and two other new reports as indicators of a “Bidenomics” success. Clean energy jobs grew by 3.9% last year, DOE found, and the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages found that employment in power generation and supply has recovered after a several-year downward trend, reaching its highest levels in a decade in the first quarter of 2023. “Nationwide in 2022, clean energy jobs grew by 114,000 (3.9 percent) to 3.1 million jobs,” the White House said. Dive Insight: In addition to DOE’s report and the new quarterly census from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the White House pointed to a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing that an announced 94 GW of new clean power generation projects represent an estimated $133 billion in investment since the beginning of the administration, as of August 2023. “These announced investments in specific generation projects are a subset of a larger boom across American clean energy supply chains,” the White House said. “These investments have spurred strong job growth. Between January 2021 and March 2023, the economy added 21,000 jobs in power generation and supply, reaching its highest level in more than a decade following a prolonged decline in employment in the industry.” Overall, energy employment in the U.S. grew by 3.8% last year, outpacing economy-wide employment growth of 3.1%, according to DOE. ”Some states saw particularly large gains, with West Virginia, Oklahoma, and New Mexico leading clean energy job growth,” the White House said. “Including traditional transmission and distribution, clean energy jobs in West Virginia increased 19.3%” — the most in the country in 2022 — “while clean energy jobs increased by 9.1% in both New Mexico and Oklahoma.” The White House said that “clean energy jobs” in this case are defined as jobs “with work related to the U.S.’s net zero goal” including grid technologies and storage, nuclear energy, and electrical transmission and distribution, and that jobs qualify when more than 50% of the worker’s time is devoted to clean energy. While DOE’s report only covered 2022, data from 2023 will be released in mid-2024, the White House blog said. “The energy sector has recouped 71% of the number of jobs lost in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic,” DOE said. “The fuels sector saw the largest percent increase from 2021 to 2022, with the fastest growth seen in onshore natural gas. The second largest percent increase was in electric power generation jobs.” Transmission, distribution and storage jobs have increased 3.8% nationwide since 2020, while electric power generation jobs have grown 6.1% and fuel sector jobs have grown 11%, DOE said. Motor vehicles saw the most growth of any energy sector with 13%, and clean vehicles accounted for 59% of all net new jobs in that sector. In West Virginia, transmission, distribution, and storage contributed a significant portion of the jobs added in 2022, providing 7,322 new roles, DOE said. West Virginia’s fuel sector also grew significantly in 2022, adding 5,933 new jobs, mostly in the coal industry. West Virginia employers made growth predictions that were more conservative than other states’ employers in every sector except fuel, which they predicted would grow 2.3% over the next year, versus a national average prediction of 1.6% growth. While Texas by far added the most energy jobs nationwide in 2022, its 50,200 new jobs only accounted for a 6.3% increase in the state, which employs 936,476 energy workers. About 37,470 of these new jobs were in fuel, reversing a trend that saw the state’s fuel sector lose jobs in 2020 and 2021.

Cleanup almost finished in East Palestine, EPA says - The U.S. EPA announced Thursday that major work to clean up the site of chemically tainted soil and water in East Palestine, Ohio, is almost complete, nearly nine months after a Norfolk Southern train derailed there. EPA’s regional administrator Debra Shore stood near the site where five rail cars’ worth of the carcinogen vinyl chloride were vented and burned after the Feb. 3 derailment. “It is completely cleared of hazardous contamination, and it has been filled with clean soil, and filling of the remainder of the site will begin very soon,” Shore said. She said Norfolk Southern had cleared more than 165 million tons of contaminated soil and over 39 million gallons of liquid waste, but there’s more work to be done. “This doesn’t mean the cleanup is done or that EPA is going away. But it is another step, a huge step in life returning to normal here in East Palestine,” Shore said. Over the next few months, the agency will collect 2,500 soil samples “from all across the site to double check and ensure all the contamination is gone,” she said.But not everyone around East Palestine has been satisfied that the remnants of the chemical release are all gone. Some residents on social media say that streams are still polluted near the site of the disaster. EPA recently ordered Norfolk Southern to do more stream assessment and testing of the oily sheens still visible in nearby Leslie Run and Sulfur Run.“We recognize that you can see a lot of sheen coming off of Sulfur Run,” said Mark Durno, EPA’s site coordinator at East Palestine. “And that’s why we’re engaging in a very thorough and extended assessment.”And scientists say there could still be contamination in the town. That’s why Ohio’s two U.S. Senators, Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican JD Vance, recently asked the EPA to sample for chemicals inside peoples’ homes. “By allowing Norfolk Southern to skirt its responsibility to the community and refuse to offer this sort of testing following cleanup, the EPA risks eroding the trust of many in our community,” states the letter, which was also signed by five Ohio Congressional representatives. But the EPA has so far dismissed those requests, saying that some chemicals present in the derailment could also be present in household products and that outside air tests show no contamination.

California governor vetoes bill that would require microplastic filters on washing machines - It was a win in the battle against plastic pollution — until it wasn’t. On Oct. 8, California governor Gavin Newsom vetoed Assembly Bill 1628, which would have required plastic microfiber filters on new residential washing machines sold in the state by 2029. The bill, which passed California’s legislature on Sept. 13 , would have prevented millions of pounds each year of one of the most pernicious forms of microplastic pollution. Newsom, in a brief letter, said that while he takes microfiber contamination seriously, he is “concerned that this bill will increase costs to consumers in advance of further research being completed and establishing the public policy rationale and details for new residential requirements.” Advocates disputed this claim, saying that evidence-based scientific and economic research underpinned the bill. An economic study commissioned by Ocean Conservancy, for example, found that the filters would have increased the price tag of washing machines by $14 to $20, or about $2 per year over a machine’s average lifespan. In terms of cost effectiveness, the bill was “low-hanging fruit,” ecotoxicologist Lisa Erdle, the director of science and innovation at 5 Gyres Institute, told Environmental Health News (EHN). Companies such as Patagonia are investigating upstream solutions for microfiber pollution — such as changing how textiles are woven — but this research is pricey and still in its infancy, she said. “We were disappointed and honestly surprised” by the veto, Anja Brandon, an environmental engineer and associate director at Ocean Conservancy, told EHN. She noted that the American Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers, or AHAM, was the sole recent source of opposition to the bill, and suspects that their complaints about costs played a key role in Newsom’s decision. Erdle agreed with Brandon. “At that stage, it really was AHAM that was in opposition,” she said. “We think they had an outsized voice in the decision.” AHAM did not return requests for comment.

Plastic recycler plans to move ahead with Pa. plant after withdrawing key permit application - - The company behind a new type of plastics recycling plant in central Pennsylvania has withdrawn a key permit application, but says it is still moving forward with the project. Texas-based Encina plans to build a plant on the Susquehanna River in Point Township, Northumberland County, that will break down plastics into chemical building blocks to make new products. It calls the process circular manufacturing.Encina has a small plant in Texas, but the Pennsylvania project would be the first of its kind in scale. The company says the Point Township Circular Manufacturing Facility would process 450,000 tons of plastic each year.Environmental groups say the process is unproven. They’re concerned about the company’s plans to use water from the river for washing and cooling materials, and to ship chemicals by rail.“Upwind is Danville, so they will have the air impacts and downstream will have the water impacts. And then you have the chemical on the rails. Every community those tracks go through will be at risk,” said Eleanor Breslin, staff attorney with Clean Air Council.Breslin said it’s not reassuring that Encina is promising to follow all environmental laws and regulations.“That doesn’t mean that the community and the environment and everybody downstream and upwind will be protected,” Breslin said, noting that microplastics and many types of the forever chemicals PFAS are not regulated.Encina recently withdrew its permit application for stormwater management, after state regulators said it was deficient.The company needs the permit to start construction. Spokesperson Alison Jahn said Encina withdrew the application because it could not get an extension from the Department of Environmental Protection.

Allegheny County to consider ban on single-use plastic bags - Allegheny County Council could consider a ban on single-use plastic bags, similar to the one recently implemented by the city of Pittsburgh. The ordinance was introduced at a meeting Tuesday and referred to council’s committee on sustainability and green initiatives. The committee will deliberate on and consider potential changes to the bill, and then decide whether to forward it to the full council.The legislation would require customers to use reusable bags or pay a 10-cent fee to receive a paper bag. The retailer could keep the money collected or donate it to a charity.Garbage bags, pet waste bags and food storage bags would be exempt from the bill. And plastic bags could also still be used for purposes that include: bulk-packaging items like fruits and vegetables, wrapping meats or fish, containing unwrapped prepared foods or baked goods, or wrapping potted plants or flowers.Those who use the Women, Infants and Children aid program could get recycled paper bags for free. Retailers who violate the policy could be fined up to $5 per noncompliant bag distributed, not to exceed $50 a day.

Environmental group seeks to share information - Weirton Daily Times -- New group in panhandle fighting pyrolysis plant at old coke plant site - — Leaders of Ohio Valley Environmental Advocates said the local, grassroots group wants to get the public answers about planned industrial development while raising awareness of possibilities for the development of clean energy-based businesses. The group brought together representatives of several related organizations to share information Saturday at Blue Stream Farms, a nonprofit organization that grows vegetables hydroponically. Following the presentations, Frank Rocchio, the group’s president, said its goal is to gather information about the impact of any new industry that may enter the region. Rocchio said a 30-day public comment period often comes long after a business has applied for state or federal environmental permits and that gives little time for affected residents to learn more about the proposed opening of an industry near them. “The point of Ohio Valley Environmental Advocates is to be that source of information,” he said, adding the group would like to see a meeting of industry officials and community members to discuss relevant issues. “We want to be open to any type of development coming in. We simply want to be able to ask questions,” Rocchio said, adding a discussion between residents and the businesses should also include objective third-party experts. Speakers at Saturday’s program included representatives of other groups who have been working to bring businesses specializing in alternative fuel services into their areas. Molly Updegrove, deputy program director for ReImagine Appalachia, said the group is comprised of more than 100 organizations and more than 100 elected officials in West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Kentucky who are focused on drawing such businesses that can bring good paying jobs and tax dollars directly to the communities where they open. Updegrove said its hope is that former coal and steel facilities can be repurposed for the production of electric vehicles or alternatives to single-use plastic products. She added the expansion of high-speed internet to unserved areas also is an objective. Updegrove said through the Inflation Reduction Act, the federal government is offering billions of dollars in grants and loans as incentives to businesses to pursue such goals. Updegrove said the organization was spurred by the establishment of ReImagine Beaver County, which was represented Saturday by its executive director, Joanne Martin. Martin said the Pennsylvania group arose from concerns about hydraulic fracturing but determined if it were to warn against one industry, it should offer an alternative. “We have a goal of rewriting the economic path for Beaver County,” she said. Martin said the group identified four possible areas of growth: Energy innovation, involving hydroelectric and solar power; sustainable agriculture, including farming techniques such as hydroponics and aquaponics that extend growing seasons; riverfront development, including creation of a recreational trail and restoration of a local creek to attract tourists; and green energy. Martin said the group has chosen to focus on the latter, which would involve an eco-industrial park where materials such as biodegradable packaging, used by Ikea and others, may be produced. The plan also suggests a trail and recreational riverfront use.

SUVs emit more climate damaging gas than older cars do, study finds -- The increasing popularity of ultra-heavy SUVs in England means a conventional-engined car bought in 2013 will, on average, have lower carbon emissions than one bought new today, new research has found. The study by the climate campaign group Possible said there was a strong correlation between income and owning a large SUV, which meant there was a sound argument for “polluter pays” taxes for vehicle emissions based on size. Data on vehicle ownership in England showed that households in the top 20% income bracket are 81% more likely to own a highly emitting car than vehicle owners in the other 80%. The top 20% income group drive three times as many miles a year as those in the bottom income quintile. The study found the carbon impact of the richest people’s driving habits to have damaged the climate more than “those of the poorest”. Car ownership data in the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea found having an SUV was associated with living in a richer area, more so for super-heavy, high-emitting cars such as the Land Rover Defender. Nearly a quarter of the cars in the wealthiest part of the borough fell into this category, against 5% for the more deprived part. The research comes amid increasing concern about the environmental, health and safety impact of the increasing popularity of SUVs, often very large four-wheel drive vehicles that can routinely weigh more than two tonnes. While the definition of an SUV can vary, the proportion of cars sold in the UK that come under the banner has risen in recent years from about a fifth to almost a third. While they are billed as vehicles that cover rough ground or tow heavy loads, previous research has shown that three-quarters of SUVs bought new in the UK are registered to people living in urban areas. The effect of rising sales of SUVs, and the fact they tend to be notably heavier than the traditional models previously bought, means the average conventional-engined car bought in 2023 has higher carbon emissions than its 2013 equivalent, the study calculated. The report called for a distinction between drivers being charged based on greenhouse gas emissions rather than for emissions with direct public health effects, such as nitrogen oxides (NOx).

The politics of polarization have come for electric vehicles A new analysis finds a "strong and enduring correlation" between political ideology and U.S. electric vehicle adoption.The working paper, from UC Berkeley's Energy Institute at Haas, explores county-level new car registrations from 2012-2022 and compares them to voting records in presidential races."During our time period about half of all EVs went to the 10% most Democratic counties, and about one-third went to the top 5%," the study found. "There is relatively little evidence that this correlation has decreased over time, and even some specifications that point to increasing correlation. If EV uptake remains a big thing only in very blue places, it may be "harder than previously believed" to reach high market penetration, they write. EVs are a pillar of White House climate efforts.A draft EPA rule effectively aims to have EVs claim two-thirds of light-duty sales by 2032, up from around 8% now. Purchase subsidies for the vehicles are a key part of the 2022 climate law.The authors tested other explanations for the seeming political divide.The most Democrat-heavy counties are ripe for EVs — they tend to be very dense, high-income, and have higher gasoline taxes. But the political correlation remains "strong and statistically significant even after controlling for these other factors."

China Restricts Exports of Graphite, Key Mineral Used for Making EV Batteries --China's Ministry of Commerce on Friday curbed exports of graphite, a critical mineral used in the production of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), which could accelerate a shortage of the mineral as EV demand soars worldwide.The move, attributed to national security concerns, comes just days after the U.S. imposed new restrictions on exports of high-tech semiconductor chips to Chinese companies and their overseas units, escalating a trade war that has been brewing since 2018.A shortage of graphite could present problems for EV makers worldwide, particularly at a time when consumer demand for EVs is booming. In 2020, the World Bank forecast graphite demand could soar 500% over the next three decades as EVs and other clean energy technologies become more widely adopted.1 As such, EV makers like Tesla (TSLA), Rivian (RIVN), and Lucid Motors (LCID), along with traditional automakers that have developed their own EV models in recent years, could be at risk of production shortages. Kearney, a consulting firm, has warned that EV makers will need to drastically curb their reliance on Chinese graphite to reduce the risk of shortages and qualify for U.S. government subsidies.2Counterpoint Research's Ivan Lamb said in an email that the latest export curbs are simply an extension of measures "that have already been in place." He mentioned that graphite export controls are a common practice enacted by governments around the world, a practice not limited to China.The main concern, according to Lamb, is a spike in graphite prices."We believe that the average price of graphite will continue to rise in the future due to supply and demand imbalances, including Russia, which was once one of the major graphite suppliers before the Russia-Ukraine war," he said.China is the world's biggest producer of graphite, and last year accounted for close to two-thirds of global production of the critical mineral, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.3 China may also account for all but 2% of global production of spherical graphite, the final synthetic form of graphite used in battery anodes.4Graphite is a critical component in the production process of lithium-ion batteries used in EVs. Refined, spherical graphite is the sole material used in the batteries' anodes, or the part of the battery that generates a negative charge.56 Amid escalating tensions with China and with potential shortages looming, U.S. government officials have sought to create incentives for domestic production of graphite and other critical minerals used in clean energy technologies. The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law last year, provides a 10% tax credit to domestic producers of graphite and other minerals used in clean energy applications.7

The Future of Mining Is Deeper, Darker, and Riskier - In the decades to come, as the easiest-to-mine metal deposits are tapped out, the quest for metals to supply the clean energy transition will force us ever further afield. To more remote and politically unstable places on land and further underground, to the deepest seabed, and perhaps even beyond the limits of the Earth altogether — to the moon, and near-Earth asteroids and comets. And unless business as usual can change, our future over the shorter term will be to venture into ever deeper, darker, and riskier places, creating new sacrifice zones in the Global South, where most of the best earthly deposits remain. Where it is technically possible, we will go ever deeper into the Earth’s crust to access metal-rich ores. Many of the biggest open-pit mines of the world — Chuquicamata in northern Chile, Bingham Canyon in Utah, and Grasberg in western New Guinea — have gone as deep as they can safely go. Beyond one kilometer of depth (0.6 miles), the slopes of an open pit can become increasingly unstable; to tap the deep roots of metal deposits, miners now plumb the depths underground. No other mining operation on Earth yet compares to South Africa’s Mponeng gold mine, the world’s deepest, about 40 miles southwest of Johannesburg. Mining to a depth of almost 2.5 miles — the equivalent of nearly 10 Empire State Buildings stacked end to end — thousands of workers navigate 236 miles of subterranean tunnels, in an operation that consumes more annual energy than New Orleans. Deep-crust mining forces engineers to confront a long list of potentially catastrophic events and phenomena — high temperatures, rock bursts, gas outbursts, and a multitude of other hazards that result from blasting and removing rock at great depth. “A deep mine is a truce that will always break,” writes Matthew Hart, author of “Gold: The Race for the World’s Most Seductive Metal,” of his own visit to Mponeng. By the time he had traveled by elevator 2.3 miles below the surface, the rock was 140 degrees Fahrenheit to the touch, with humidity at a soupy 95 percent. South Africa’s biggest gold mining company, Harmony Gold, operates here in an environment where almost nothing can survive on its own, with one strange exception. Scientists gathered DNA from water collected at Mponeng in fractures 1.7 miles deep and found that a single bacterium, Candidatus Desulforudis audaxviator, accounted for 99.9 percent of the microorganisms present. . To make the same depths survivable for humans at the time of Hart’s visit, the company was manufacturing 6,000 tons of ice a day on the surface, mixing it with salt to create an icy slush, and piping it through the mine, using fans to circulate the cooling air. Every day almost 6,500 tons of rock is blasted and removed from this underground labyrinth comparable to New York City’s subway system: The trouble with that, writes Hart, is that “the laws of compressive force dictate that the rock will try to close the spaces” created by all that mining.At least 600 times a month, he writes, a seismic event shudders through the mine: “Sometimes the quakes cause rock bursts, when rock explodes into a mining cavity and mows men down with a deadly spray of jagged rock. Sometimes a tremor causes a ‘fall of ground’— the term for a collapse. Some of the rock bursts had been so powerful that other countries detecting the seismic signature had suspected South Africa of testing a nuclear bomb.”

Asteroid Polyhymnia’s density beyond known elements - A groundbreaking study by the University of Arizona reveals that asteroid Polyhymnia has a density exceeding that of any known elements on Earth. Led by Jan Rafelski, the research team used the Thomas-Fermi model to predict the existence of superheavy elements that could account for this extraordinary density. These findings not only challenge our understanding of the Periodic Table but also have significant implications for future asteroid mining endeavors. Scientists at the Department of Physics, The University of Arizona, Tucson, USA, have published a study suggesting that ultradense asteroids may contain superheavy elements with an atomic number (Z) beyond the current Periodic Table. These unprecedented elements could be part of a proposed ‘island of nuclear stability’ at Z=164. The study, led by Jan Rafelski and co-authored by Evan LaForge and Will Price, uses the Thomas-Fermi model of atomic structure. This model enables systematic exploration of atomic behavior beyond the known Periodic Table. Both LaForge and Price were awarded the prestigious Galileo Circle Scholarship earlier in 2023 for their contributions to this project. The researchers concentrated on calculating the properties of superheavy elements, defined as those with Z > 104. Among these, elements with atomic numbers between 105 and 118 have been synthetically created but are unstable. However, their calculations suggest that elements around Z=164 could be stable and extremely dense, with a density ranging between 36.0 and 68.4 g/cm3. In astronomical terms, objects with densities higher than osmium (Z=76) — which has a density of 22.59 g/cm3 — are classified as ‘compact ultradense objects’ or CUDOs. The asteroid 33 Polyhymnia, located in the main belt between Mars and Jupiter, is the most extreme example with a calculated density of approximately 75 g/cm3. Rafelski suggests that such objects could be composed of elements above Z=118 or even other types of ultradense matter.

As nuclear fuel plant opens in Ohio, can small reactors compete? -As an Ohio uranium enrichment plant opened this month, yet another study questioned whether nuclear power from small modular reactors can compete with other types of electricity generation. Centrus Energy’s new plant in Piketon produces high-assay, low-enriched uranium, or HALEU. The fuel will contain between 5% and 20% fissile uranium, or U-235, which is the range needed for various types of small modular reactors, or SMRs. The current fleet of large nuclear reactors uses fuel with up to 5% U-235.Large nuclear plants have had problems competing with other types of electricity generation in recent years. Ohio’s House Bill 6would have mandated ratepayer spending of more than $1 billion to subsidize the 894-megawatt Davis-Besse plant and 3,758-megawatt Perry plant in Ohio, for example. Lawmakers repealedthat law’s nuclear subsidies after alleged corruption came to light.Now the question is whether small modular reactors designed to produce up to 300 MW of electricity can compete better.Huge gigawatt-scale nuclear plants can have economies of scale because their power output grows faster than increases in capital and operating expenditures.“However, the extensive customization of many of the currently deployed reactors undercuts much of that economy,” said William Madia, a nuclear chemist and emeritus professor at Stanford University who is now a member of Centrus’ board of directors.The lack of a standard design also makes it harder for large reactors to get replacement parts when needed. “Things like large-scale forgings are in short supply globally,” Madia noted.In contrast, small modular reactors can be built in indoor factories and then sent to where they’ll be used. That avoids site-by-site mobilization costs, as well as weather problems that might interrupt construction. “But the real driver is standardized design,” Madia said. So eventually, production can take place on assembly lines. And that should produce its own economies.All in all, “the capital cost for SMRs is much lower than GW-scale machines,” Madia said. Also, if the choice is between lower-cost modular reactors and huge ones, “many, many more utilities can afford a few billion dollars on their balance sheets. Very few can handle $10-plus billion.”

Weldon Spring uranium plant contaminated Missouri lakes with radioactive waste • Steve Allen and Eric Singsaas grew up hunting and fishing in August A. Busch Memorial Conservation Area and swimming in quarries along the Missouri River in St. Charles County, never knowing they were playing near nuclear waste. Allen said he and Singsaas even attended a tour of an old uranium plant nearby — put on by the federal government in 1991. “For the most part, we trusted what the government told us,” Allen said, “and surely, in our brain, if there was something bad there, (the government) wouldn’t allow us to be there.” Decades later, Singsaas woke up with a numb foot. Within a week, he found out he had three cancerous brain tumors. Two years later, he died. It’s unclear what confluence of factors may have caused Singsaas’s cancer diagnosis and death in 2018, at the age of 50, or whether exposure to radioactive contamination played any part. But testing results from sampling conducted by the Department of Energy show that, in the 1980s and 1990s, three lakes within the Busch conservation area — almost 7,000 acres of some of the busiest fishing lakes and hiking trails in the state — contained higher-than-natural levels of uranium and radioactivity. Several of the uranium readings are much higher than the EPA maximum level for uranium in drinking water, which was first set in 2003. Health experts say the levels would only pose a measurable threat if someone drank the lake water regularly. But in a region where contamination from America’s nuclear age has been allowed to spread even when the federal government and private companies knew of the danger, and generations of residents watched loved ones suffer from rare cancers and autoimmune diseases, those assurances can ring hollow. After discovering contaminated water flowing from Burgermeister Spring into the lakes in the mid-1980s, the Missouri Department of Conservation resisted calls to install signs warning visitors of the risks, dismissing it as the “most drastic thing we could do” and arguing that people would inevitably disregard any state-mandated prohibition on swimming in the lakes or eating fish. And while the plant started processing radioactive material in the 1950s, federal records of uranium monitoring only date back to the 1980s. Neither the Department of Energy nor the Department of Defense has records from the 10 years the Weldon Spring plant processed uranium. The plant sat shuttered, and the groundwater wasn’t monitored for at least 10 years after that. “They know when something’s wrong,” DeGarmo said. “They know that when red water is showing up in a muddle somewhere, it shouldn’t be there. They know when their kids are getting sick.” A federal study in the late 1990s cast doubt on potential health impacts from Weldon Spring Chemical Plant, which manufactured TNT and DNT and later refined uranium for the federal government. Waste from the plant contaminated quarries by the Missouri River and made its way into the groundwater and, eventually, to the Busch conservation area. But when the Department of Energy demolished the uranium plant and emptied the pits where radioactive waste was stored — and which had been exposed to wind and rain for decades — officials decided to simply monitor the contamination in groundwater and surface water until it naturally dissipated.And while the federal government has known since at least the 1980s that surface water around the Weldon Spring uranium plant was contaminated, the Busch lakes and other publicly-accessible bodies of water nearby have no signs warning visitors of potential hazards.

Antis Grasp at Data Straws to Block Drilling Under Ohio State Land | Marcellus Drilling News - The Big Green group Save Ohio Parks is trying to block legally permitted and state-encouraged drilling under some of Ohio’s state-owned lands, including shale drilling under (not on) state parks. Save Ohio Parks recently tried to prove shale drilling is a problem in the Buckeye State by using data from the Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR). In a funny turnabout, the group actually proves the opposite — that shale drilling is super safe and not harming the environment in Ohio.

City of Murrysville looking to lease Marcellus, Utica shale under community park -— The Murrysville Community Park sits on 305 acres. There’s a playground, ball fields, soccer fields, and a walking path. But it’s something underneath the ground that the city is looking to lease, and if they do, it could bring in more than $1.5 million dollars. Michael Nestico, Murrysville’s Chief Administrator, said the city is asking for bids from oil and gas companies to see if leasing the rights to the Marcellus and Utica shale under the Murrysville Community Park is something the city should do. “It’s an interesting opportunity and we’re exploring how we might be able to go about leasing out the gas rights,” Nestico said. Right now, the city has one bid from Washington County-based Olymus Energy. They offered to pay $1.5 million dollars upfront, and then 18-percent in royalties in any gas obtained from under the park -- and then sold. Nestico said the money would be put to good use. “[It would] contribute to some of our park programming and improvements, provide some relief in other areas of our annual budget,” Nestico said. There wouldn’t be a well or a drill site on the park grounds. This would be drilled underground from the nearby Olympus Energy Titan well pad. But Nestico said there are some people in Murrysville concerned about environmental impacts. Some point to Allegheny County banning fracking in county parks last year. The city said it’s considering everything. “So, it is a difficult balancing act, because if we don’t take advantage and lease out our subsurface rights, that environmental impact is still going to exist one way or another,” Nestico said. The city is also looking to get bids to lease the rights under Duff Park. That could bring in more than $500,000 dollars plus royalties.

“Forever chemicals” in Pennsylvania fracking wells could impact health of surrounding communities: Report – EHN — “Forever chemicals” have been used in Pennsylvania fracking wells, but it’s impossible to know how widespread contamination could be, according to a new report.The report, published today by Physicians for Social Responsibility, an environmental health advocacy group, found eight documented cases of the group of chemicals known as PFAS(per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) used in unconventional gas wells between 2012 and 2015.During the same time period, more than 5,000 wells in the state were injected with around 160 million pounds of undisclosed, “trade-secret” chemicals, which could include PFAS, according to the report, which includes a map of these sites. “It’s impossible to know how widespread PFAS contamination from oil and gas wells might be at this point,” Dusty Horwitt, co-author of Physicians for Social Responsibility’s reports on PFAS in Pennsylvania, told Environmental Health News (EHN). “We need more transparency before we can begin to address this issue.”Environmental Health News has previously reported on the use of PFAS at Pennsylvania oil and gas wells, mapping the locations of the eight wells where the chemicals have been used, tracking where waste from those wells has traveled, and documenting a case of PFAS contamination in drinking water at a Pennsylvania home that once had fracking wells on the property.In Pennsylvania, fracking companies must publicly disclosewhat chemicals they use, but they’re permitted to withhold “trade secrets.” This exemption is used frequently. “Secret” ingredients were used in more than half of Pennsylvania fracking wells developed between 2013 and 2017, with themost heavy usage of secret chemicals occurring in southwestern Pennsylvania.PFAS are a class of more than 15,000 chemicals with similar properties that are used in a wide variety of household products to make them waterproof, grease-proof or stain resistant. The chemicals don’t break down naturally, so they can build up in the environment and human bodies. Exposure to PFAS is linked to health problems including kidney and testicular cancer, liver and thyroid problems, reproductive problems, lowered vaccine efficacy in children and increased risk of birth defects, among others. The chemicals, which are extremely water-repellent, are sometimes used in fracking fluid to make the chemical mixture more stable and to more efficiently flush oil and gas out of the ground at high pressure. There’s also evidence that companies use the chemicals during initial drilling and other phases of oil and gas extraction, but since they aren’t required to disclose those chemicals, there’s no way of knowing how widespread the practice is. Much of the fracking in Pennsylvania takes place in rural communities, where many households use private wells. There are more than one million private water wells in Pennsylvania serving about 3.5 million people in rural areas. Private drinking water wells are not protected by the federal Safe Water Drinking Act and aren’t regulated in most states, including Pennsylvania, so the water isn’t routinely tested or monitored, and the responsibility for cleaning up dangerous chemicals falls to homeowners. “Considering how toxic and persistent these chemicals are and the evidence that they have been used in oil and gas extraction for decades,” Horwitt said, “it’s critical for state regulators to start looking for these contaminants in people’s drinking water near oil and gas sites.”Several environmental advocacy groups are calling for a statewide ban on PFAS in Pennsylvania oil and gas operations in response to the new report.“PFAS pollution is a serious health concern,” said Alison Steele, executive director of the Environmental Health Project, one of the advocacy groups calling for a ban on PFAS in oil and gas wells, in a statement. “To protect residents from PFAS exposure, the Pennsylvania legislature must pass legislation that restricts the oil and gas industry from using any PFAS pollutants in their operations.”

Pennsylvania’s Gas Industry Used 160 Million Pounds of Secret Chemicals From 2012 to 2022, a New Report Says - Oil and gas producers in Pennsylvania used some 160 million pounds of chemicals that they are not required by law to publicly identify in more than 5,000 gas wells between 2012 and 2022, according to research published on Tuesday. The chemicals may have included per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), a toxic and pervasive class of chemicals, according to the report from Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR), an activist group that last week co-published a new compilation of studies on the harms of hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas.The industry is required to disclose the chemicals to state regulators in the database FracFocus. But operators are allowed by state law to keep from publicly disclosing them if doing so would put their operations at a competitive disadvantage. Although the FracFocus data does not identify which substances were among the 160 million pounds of chemicals, the new report says that at least one kind of PFAS was used by two oil and gas operators in eight Pennsylvania wells during the study period—information that was first reported by PSR in 2021. PFAS were used by one company at four wells in Washington County and one in Beaver County. Another operator used the chemicals in three wells in Lawrence County, according to the report. “Eight wells may just be the tip of the iceberg because we also found that there were 160 million pounds of trade-secret chemicals injected into thousands of unconventional gas wells over the same period,” said Dusty Horwitt, who wrote the report. PFAS—dubbed “forever chemicals” because they don’t break down in the environment—and accumulate in the blood of virtually every American—are linked to serious illnesses including some cancers, low birth weights, ulcerative colitis, reduced receptiveness to vaccines and elevated cholesterol. As evidence gathers of the chemicals’ threat to public health, U.S. states including Pennsylvania have been increasingly imposing health limits on their presence in drinking water. “Accumulation of certain PFAS has also been shown through blood tests to occur in humans and animals,” according to the Food & Drug Administration. “While the science surrounding potential health effects of this bioaccumulation of certain PFAS is developing, evidence suggests it may cause serious health conditions.” The man-made chemicals act as stain- and fire-retardants, and have been used since the 1940s in a wide range of consumer products such as nonstick cookware and flame-resistant fabrics. They have also been used by the U.S. military in firefighting foam, resulting in high levels of PFAS water contamination near many military bases. Critics of the oil and gas industry have long claimed that many chemicals used in drilling and fracking have the potential to contaminate the aquifers that supply drinking water to private water wells in Pennsylvania and elsewhere. The industry says its drilling fluids are separated from aquifers by layers of steel and concrete that extend through an aquifer, and that fracking chemicals are released thousands of feet below sources of public drinking water. Horwitt said the oil and gas industry uses PTFE, a type of PFAS, for drilling into rock because of the chemical’s friction-reducing qualities. The industry also uses “surfactants,” chemical compounds that can be used as detergents or foaming agents, and which may contain PFAS chemicals, he said. In August this year, a study by the U.S. Geological Survey and Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection found that streams near small rural towns surrounded by oil and gas development may contain “low levels” of PFAS contamination, especially from PFOA, one of the chemicals that the EPA plans to regulate. That report said fluids and foams used for drilling and fracking of gas wells may contain PFAS, which “greatly increase” the recovery of petroleum hydrocarbons. Any PFAS contamination of nearby creeks and rivers could be traced to combined sewer overflows (CSOs), which take combined stormwater and sewage during heavy rains, the USGS/DEP study said. The report urged Pennsylvania to follow the example of Colorado, which banned the use of PFAS by the oil and gas industry, and requires public disclosure of all chemicals used in fracking, including proprietary chemicals. It also called on Pennsylvania and the federal government to increase water testing so that they know where PFAS chemicals have been used by the oil and gas industry, end the exemption from hazardous waste rules for oil and gas waste and ban production and wastewater wells near sources of drinking water, as well as near homes and schools.

Plum officials are trying to stop a new planned injection well for fracking wastewater -- Attorneys representing Plum Borough and an environmental group opposed to fracking said in arguments on Tuesday before Commonwealth Court in Pittsburgh that a proposed second “injection” well for disposing of toxic fracking wastewater would violate the borough’s zoning code. Penneco Environmental Solutions, an oil and gas company, began operating its first disposal well in Plum in 2021 and has since encountered stiff opposition from borough residents over both the current and proposed wells, called Sedat 3A and Sedat 4A, respectively. The case in Commonwealth Court is being closely watched by the environmental community and the state’s gas industry at a time when Pennsylvania frackers produce billions of gallons of toxic “produced water” each year, extracting gas from the Marcellus Shale, but are running out of places to dispose of it. Until recently, most of the state’s produced water had been trucked to Ohio’s 200-plus injection wells. But well operators in Ohio, under pressure from nearby residents and environmentalists, are starting to balk. Pennsylvania has just 14 injection wells. Sedat 4A in Plum Borough would be the 15th. Once a player, Shell confirms it's not part of any regional hydrogen hub “My mental health and my physical health is impacted by this every day,” said Katie Sheehan, a Plum resident who lives near Penneco’s already-existing injection well. Ms. Sheehan appeared at a press conference, held after the oral arguments inside the City-County Building in Pittsburgh, alongside activists and fellow Plum residents opposing Penneco’s proposed well. They are concerned that another well in Plum would increase truck traffic and air pollution in the neighborhood. Gillian Graber, executive director and founder of Protect PT, the environmental organization that has been named as an intervenor in the case, said that the group is “standing with Plum Borough in opposing the well” because “this is going to have multiple impacts.” Before the Commonwealth Court panel, attorneys for Plum Borough said that Plum’s own zoning board erred in approving a special exception application by Penneco for a second injection well. The Plum attorneys argued that the zoning board failed to ask Penneco to demonstrate the safety of its proposed project, and that the company does not have a constitutional right to expand the number of injection wells at the site. An attorney representing Penneco did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Penneco has proposed converting Sedat 4A from a conventional gas well into an “injection well,” which would enable the company to pump millions of gallons of produced water at high pressure down the well’s existing metal tubes that are encased in layers of cement and bore thousands of feet deep into the ground. Produced water is highly toxic and can contain benzene, arsenic and radium 226 and 228, both radioactive isotopes, as well as other toxic chemicals from its time underground. While the gas industry argues that fracking and wastewater disposal are environmentally safe and highly regulated, residents in Pennsylvania and other fracking states across the country have long argued that wastewater from fracking has polluted their aquifers and wells and caused significant health problems.

This rural township is trying to make it easier to fight injection wells - An oil and gas company recently withdrew its application to inject liquids deep underground in rural Clara Township, a win for officials and residents who feared groundwater pollution and health risks. The experience with the state agency responsible for approving or rejecting such applications has left locals pushing for changes to the process. Supervisors Steven Mehl and Robert Wylie represent the roughly 120 residents of Clara Township, located in Potter County. They told Spotlight PA they didn’t learn about the proposed well from the company as required, and had to push the state Department of Environmental Protection to hold a public meeting, as that’s not mandatory. That’s why they took matters into their own hands by petitioning county officials, asking for help from state lawmakers, and repeatedly requesting that the DEP reject the application. “The process is broken,” The oil and gas industry uses injection wells to dispose of fluid created during the production process, storing it deep underground. The waste contains salts, chemicals, and metals, and can be toxic to humans and the environment.The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regulates hundreds of thousands of underground injection wells nationwide. Pennsylvania — which has 19 such wells, per the EPA — has relied on Ohio’s more than 200 injection wells to dispose of waste.The oil and gas industry says there are safeguards in place to protect the environment and prevent water pollution. But residents nationwide, including in Pennsylvania, have pushed back against injection wells coming into their communities, citing health concerns and risks of contaminated water.Hannah Wiseman, a Penn State law professor, told Spotlight PA that while groundwater contamination from injection wells is not unheard of, it is rare due to “relatively strong” protections included in the federal and state permitting processes.Before proceeding with an injection well in Pennsylvania, an operator must get approvals from the EPA and DEP. The process can take years as each office reviews the application and evaluates compliance with federal and state regulations.The EPA in December 2021 granted Roulette Oil & Gas a permit to change the use of an existing well in Clara Township from production to disposal, pending approval from the state DEP. Pennsylvania’s oil and gas law requires that the applicant complete a map with information about the project and send a copy to stakeholders, including the municipality that houses the site. Proof of notification is required as part of the state’s permit approval process.The supervisors knew about Roulette’s application for a permit from the EPA in 2021, and advocates then circulated an online petition urging the federal agency to deny the request. At the time, the DEP had not received an application from the company. A DEP spokesperson told Spotlight PA that the applicant notified the township in March 2022 but did not provide details or say how. The department said staff made several unsuccessful attempts to reach the township after it submitted an objection to the permit application in March 2023. After receiving Mehl’s phone number from a third party, the DEP contacted him directly in April 2023, the spokesperson said. Roulette Oil & Gas withdrew its change-of-use application with the state in September. It’s unclear why.

22 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Oct 16 – 22 -Marcellus Drilling News - New shale permits issued for Oct 16 – 22 in the Marcellus/Utica rebounded. There were 22 new permits issued last week, versus 14 the week before. Last week’s permit tally included 17 new permits in Pennsylvania, 5 new permits in Ohio, and no new permits in West Virginia. Chesapeake Energy was the top permittee for the week, drawing 7 permits between two counties in PA: Susquehanna and Wyoming (northeastern part of the state). EQT had 5 permits across two PA counties: Greene and Washington (southwestern part of the state). And Ascent Resources had 5 permits in Ohio in two counties: Guernsey and Harrison. ASCENT RESOURCES | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | GUERNSEY COUNTY | HARRISON COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | WASHINGTON COUNTY | WYOMING COUNTY (PA)

Range Resources Maintaining Natural Gas, NGL Output to Prepare for Surging LNG Demand - Appalachian-focused Range Resources Corp. plans to maintain natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) production into next year using hedging and efficiencies to capture the forecast surge in demand as Gulf Coast LNG export facilities start up next year. The management team held a conference call to discuss the latest results and the expected growing demand for liquefied natural gas exports. After last year’s soaring commodity prices, a glut of mostly oil-associated gas helped push Henry Hub below $4.00/MMBtu beginning in January Since then, gas prices averaged around $2.50 through mid-October, according to NGI historical price data. The Energy Information Administration also recently reported that U.S. gas-directed rigs had fallen 24% since the start of the year because of lower prices...

Longer Laterals Means Range Resources Drilling Fewer Wells in 2023 --Range Resources Corporation, the very first company to drill a shale well targeting the Marcellus Shale layer in Pennsylvania (in 2004), issued its third quarter update yesterday. In prior guidance from earlier this year, Range said it would drill between 60-65 wells in 2023. However, with this latest update, that number was revised down to 51 new wells in this latest update. The reason for drilling fewer wells, according to the Range officials, is that the company is drilling longer wells, achieving the same amount of lateral feet with fewer holes in the ground. Even though fewer new wells are coming, the ones that are drilled produce more.

How Mountain Valley Pipeline's latest delays will hit partners - Pittsburgh Business Times - Equitrans Midstream Corp.'s acknowledgement last week that the Mountain Valley Pipeline will be further delayed and cost more than previously expected will put pressure on MVP's joint venture partners and customers of the oft-delayed pipeline, according to a new report. Equitrans (NYSE: ETRN) said the 303-mile pipeline that will take Marcellus Shale natural gas through West Virginia and Virginia won't be operational until the first quarter of 2024, delayed from the previous expectation of the end of 2023 after being included in a 2023 law mandating MVP's completion. The pipeline's cost has now ballooned to $7.2 billion from $6.6 billion. That's going to impact Equitrans, which is building the pipeline and will operate and partially own it; EQT Corp, which has a big contract to ship gas on it, as well as MVP joint partners Roanoke Gas, AltaGas and Consolidated Edison of New York. "The new pipeline now won't be available for most of the coming winter, leaving eastern U.S. markets more vulnerable if the season is severe," East Daley Partners wrote in a report published Tuesday. That includes EQT, which has the biggest contract and expects to ship 1.29 billion cubic feet per day on the pipeline on its own and also with a 500 million cubic feet per day lease to a third party. "Delays to MVP have prevented EQT from potentially growing production into the new pipeline capacity in the peak demand season," East Daley said. Nor will it be complete at its start, according to East Daley. And Equitrans will also feel the heat, the analysis said: It can't operate its Hammerhead pipeline, which is in Pennsylvania and feeds MVP local Marcellus and Utica Shale gas, nor is it able to move forward on the MVP Southgate extension in North Carolina. "These projects and other contract provisions are all contingent on MVP entering service and are critical to ETRN's ability to de-lever," East Daley said.

EQT Signs Deals to Sell 1.2 Bcf/d of Natural Gas on MVP - EQT Corp. said Thursday that it has signed two major sales agreements covering all the capacity it has booked on the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) system, which it expects to enter service early next year. “These are two of the largest long-term physical supply deals ever executed in the North American natural gas market,” CEO Toby Rice told financial analysts during a call to discuss third quarter results. Management said EQT restructured a previous 525 MMcf/d capacity release into a new 10-year, 800 MMcf/d firm sales contract beginning in 2027 with an unspecified customer. It also signed another 10-year, 400 MMcf/d firm sales contract with an investment-grade utility that begins in 2027.

EQT Sets New World Drilling Record; Deals to Sell 1.2 Bcf/d via MVP -- Marcellus Drilling News - EQT Corporation, currently the largest producer of natural gas in the U.S., provided its third quarter update yesterday. And wow! There is plenty to talk about. The company set another drilling world record of 18,264 feet in 48 hours, beating the existing world record set by EQT in the second quarter (see EQT Sets World Drilling Record; Tug Hill Deal to Close Next 30 Days). CEO Toby Rice announced the company recently signed two long-term deals with natural gas customers who will buy EQT’s molecules from the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) when it gets completed. The two deals collectively add up to 1.2 Bcf/d heading to the southeastern U.S.

Natural gas leak reported in Woodstock near site of earlier explosion – NBC Chicago - Authorities in suburban Woodstock say that a natural gas leak was reported Monday, just two weeks after a massive explosion that leveled a home and damaged at least 20 structures. According to officials, firefighters were called to the 300 block of Lincoln Avenue at approximately 1:21 p.m. Monday after residents noticed the odor of natural gas. Firefighters immediately notified Nicor, and after a search, a small underground leak was found between the sidewalk and the roadway. The leak was repaired by 4:30 p.m., officials said. That leak occurred near St. Mary’s Catholic Church, which was where crews had struck an underground gas line on Oct. 9. After several hours, a massive explosion ripped through a home in the 200 block of Lincoln Avenue, leveling it and damaging a total of 20 structures. A total of 22 individuals were displaced from their homes by that explosion. Officials said that St. Mary’s had canceled all events for Monday, but that the church and school would resume operations Tuesday. In a note to residents, officials said they understood the frayed nerves and uneasy feeling that the latest leak caused, but assured the public that the situation was quickly resolved. “With the events that occurred two weeks ago on Lincoln Avenue, we understand smelling natural gas in your home or business can be concerning,” officials said. No further information was available.

EIA: natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals rise - Natural gas deliveries to US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals rose in the week ending October 18 compared to the week before, according to the Energy Information Administration. The agency said in its weekly natural gas report that 29 LNG carriers departed the US plants between October 11 and October 18, EAI previously said that 20 LNG carriers departed US terminal in the week ending October 11. However, the agency said that this week’s LNG vessel count includes five vessels that departed US LNG terminals on Wednesday, October 11, but were not included in the vessel count for the previous report week (October 5 through October 11). The total capacity of these 29 LNG vessels is 108 Bcf, the EIA said, citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance. Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals increased by 12.2 percent (1.5 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 14.3 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased by 4.1 percent (0.4 Bcf/d) to 9 Bcf/d, while deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased by 11.4 percent (0.4 Bcf/d) to 4.2 Bcf/d. The agency said that natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast rose 0.8 Bcf/d to 1.1 Bcf/d as the Cove Point LNG terminal in Maryland returned to service after concluding its annual maintenance. Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped ten cargoes and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent five shipments during the period under review. The Freeport LNG terminal and Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal each sent five LNG cargoes and Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass shipped four cargoes. Also, Elba Island LNG and Cove Point LNG did not ship cargoes during the period under review. This report week, the Henry Hub spot price decreased 28 cents from $3.18 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.90/MMBtu this Wednesday, the agency said. The Henry Hub price remained among the highest of all major US hubs outside of California, it said. Moreover, the price of the November 2023 NYMEX contract decreased 32.1 cents, from $3.377/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.056/MMBtu this Wednesday. According to the agency, the price of the 12-month strip averaging November 2023 through October 2024 futures contracts declined 15.4 cents to $3.375/MMBtu. The agency said that international natural gas futures increased this report week. Bloomberg Finance reported that weekly average front-month futures prices for LNG cargoes in East Asia increased $2.32 to a weekly average of $16.50/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Dutch TTF increased $2.49 to a weekly average of $15.78/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending October 19, 2022), the prices were $32.11/MMBtu in East Asia and $37.30/MMBtu at TTF, the EIA said.

Venture Global gets OK for Plaquemines LNG workforce boost - Venture Global LNG has received approval from the US FERC to increase the peak workforce at the site of its Plaquemines LNG export plant in Louisiana.The FERC authorized Venture Global to expand the construction workforce and extend construction activities at the Plaquemines LNG site during a meeting held on October 19.In a filling with the FERC in December last year, Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG requested authorization to increase the peak workforce to up to 6,000 per day.Plaquemines LNG also asked FERC to increase traffic volumes to accommodate the additional workforce, and implement a 24-hours-per-day, 7-days per-week construction schedule for the project.In addition, Plaquemines LNG sought approval for an additional parking/laydown area referred to as the State Highway 23 (SH23) Yard.Plaquemines LNG asked the regulator for expedited review of its request in a filling in June this year.The firm said at the time it hopes to start exports of LNG as soon as late 2024 and to complete the construction of both phases of the project by the end of 2026.In May last year, Venture Global took a final investment decision on the first phase of the project and the related pipeline.Plaquemines LNG phase one customers include PKN Orlen, Sinopec, CNOOC, Shell, and EDF. The first phase has a capacity of 13.33 mtpa.Earlier this year, the firm sanctioned the second phase of the Plaquemines LNG export plant in Louisiana. As per Plaquemines LNG phase two customers, they include ExxonMobil, Chevron, EnBW, New Fortress Energy, China Gas, Petronas, and Excelerate Energy.

Venture Global LNG completes $4 billion senior notes offering - US LNG exporter Venture Global LNG said it had closed its $4 billion offering of senior secured notes.The offering included a series of 9.5 percent senior secured notes due February 1, 2029 in an amount of $2.5 billion and a series of 9.875 percent senior secured notes due February 1, 2032 in an amount of $1.5 billion, according to Venture Global.Venture Global said the notes were not registered under the Securities Act of 1933, or the securities laws of any state or other jurisdictions, and the notes may not be offered or sold in the US.In May, Venture Global closed its $4.5 billion inaugural offering of senior secured notes.Venture Global’s $4.5 billion senior secured notes offering in May and the latest offering of the notes, “represent the first and second largest high yield bond offerings in 2023, respectively,” the firm said.The LNG exporter recently won approval to increase the peak workforce at the site of its Plaquemines LNG export plant in Louisiana.Earlier this year, the firm sanctioned the second phase of the Plaquemines LNG export plant in Louisiana.The full project, including the second stage, will have a capacity of 20 mtpa coming from 36 modular units, configured in 18 blocks.Together, phase one and phase two represent about $21 billion of investment.Once online, this will be Venture Global’s second LNG plant after the Calcasieu Pass plant in Louisiana.Calcasieu Pass produced its first LNG on January 19, 2022, moving from FID to LNG production in 29 months, and the first commissioning cargo left the facility on March 1.However, Venture Global has still not declared commercial operations at the facility and it recently filed with the US FERC seeking approval to put in service liquefaction blocks 7-9.

EIA Says Low Price for NatGas Led to Crash in Rig Count 2023 | Marcellus Drilling News - -- The Baker Hughes rig count has crashed this year compared to last year’s numbers. A few months ago, we began to chronicle the weekly rig count to keep track of this alarming situation (which we post about every Monday). U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts have taken notice of the crashing rig count and asked themselves: Why? It may seem obvious, but EIA points out in a new post on its Today in Energy website that the crash in the natural gas rig count directly correlates to the crash in the price of natural gas.

US natgas prices jump 7% on smaller-than-expected storage build, cold weather (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 7% to the highest in a week ahead of options expiration on a smaller-than-expected storage build and forecasts for colder than expected weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 74 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 20. That was smaller than the 80-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 61 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 66 bcf. Traders noted the storage increase was still bigger than normal for this time of year because mild weather last week kept heating demand low. Analysts at energy advisory Ritterbusch and Associates said the price spike was due to "A combination of continued cold near-term temperature forecasts that are now stretching through the first week of November in some cases and a smaller than expected storage injection." On its second-to-last day as the front-month, gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 20.4 cents, or 6.8%, to settle at $3.214 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Oct. 13. The December future, which will soon be the front-month, was up about 14 cents to around $3.52 per mmBtu. That put the front-month up for a fourth day in a row and kept it over the psychological round number of $3 per mmBtu, where lots of put and call options were still open, ahead of the November options expiration on Thursday and the November front-month expiration on Friday. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 103.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, up from 102.6 bcfd in September and a record high of 103.1 bcfd in July. Even though temperatures in the Lower 48 will average near normal through Nov. 10, meteorologists noted the weather was turning seasonally cooler and will be much colder than normal from Oct. 29 to Nov 2. But that extreme cold will only hit parts of the country, with Denver expected to see snow and highs of just 30 degrees Fahrenheit (-1 degree Celsius) on Sunday, while temperatures in New York will reach 80 F (27 C) on Saturday. LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 97.8 bcfd this week to 107.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. Pipeline exports to Mexico slid to an average of 6.9 bcfd so far in October, down from a monthly record high of 7.2 bcfd in September. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose to 13.6 bcfd so far in October, up from 12.6 bcfd in September. That compares with a record high of 14.0 bcfd in April.

Court indefinitely blocks Gulf oil leasing deadline set for Nov. 8 - A federal appeals court on Thursday indefinitely stayed an earlier order requiring the Biden administration to hold a November oil lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico, though it’s unclear whether the administration will immediately proceed with the sale. The Interior Department is required to hold the lease sale under the text of the Inflation Reduction Act, the sweeping climate and infrastructure bill President Biden signed into law last year. This August, the administration announced it would shrink the leasing area by about 6 million acres, citing dangers to the habitat of the critically endangered Rice’s whale. The following month, however, a federal judge blocked the restriction and ordered the sale to include those 6 million acres. Judge James Cain, a Trump appointee, sided with plaintiffs including the state of Louisiana and energy companies, writing they “have demonstrated substantial potential costs.” The sale, which was initially given a deadline of Sept. 27, which was later pushed back to Nov. 8. On Thursday, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals stayed the earlier order until it reaches a decision on an appeal of the order by conservation groups. Oral arguments in the appeal in the 5 Circuit Court are set for Nov. 13. “We look forward to the opportunity to present our arguments to the Court of Appeals,” said Steve Mashuda, an attorney with the environmental advocacy group Earthjustice, which is involved in the appeal. “We’ll continue to press for restoring basic measures to prevent harm to the critically endangered Rice’s Whale.” The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates there are less than 100 Rice’s whales alive, making it among the most endangered whale species worldwide. A spokesperson for the Interior Department declined to comment on whether the lease sale will still take place as scheduled Nov. 8.

Louisiana adopts stronger rule to tackle orphaned oil well problem - The Louisiana Department of Natural Resources finalized a new rule Friday to help reduce the number of orphaned oil and gas wells throughout the state. At one point last year, Louisiana had more than 4,600 wells considered orphaned, meaning they were abandoned with no financially viable owner to take responsibility. These wells can pose a significant risk to the environment through leaks or damage and can be costly for taxpayers to repair. There are also approximately 17,000 non-productive oil and gas wells in Louisiana registered as having future utility, meaning the operator claims they could be used in the future. As a result, the state doesn’t require the operator to plug the well. Unplugged wells can leak methane into the air, contaminate water, reduce property values and prevent other economic uses of the land. The longer a well sits idle and unplugged, the more likely it is to become orphaned. The new Natural Resources regulation puts limits on extensions of the future utility status oil and gas drillers can receive and increases fees on wells that have been inactive and unplugged for five years or more. It also reduces fees for operators who plug 10 or more wells in a year.

Texas Shatters Monthly Natural Gas, Oil Production Records as Jobs, Permitting Tick Upward - Texas production of natural gas and oil reached all-time highs for the second month in a row in September, according to the latest monthly analysis by Texas Oil & Gas Association (TXOGA). Marketed natural gas production totaled 34.6 Bcf for the month, while oil production was 5.9 million bbl, according to the report prepared by TXOGA Chief Economist Dean Foreman. “This data confirms the Texas oil and natural gas industry is a powerhouse of production, pipelines, processing and ports, all while continuing to make solid gains in environmental progress,” said TXOGA President Todd Staples. “Investment in infrastructure by our industry is what enables this high level of performance, which further solidifies the Lone Star State’s position as the world’s energy leader...

Baker Hughes Clinching More LNG Contracts, with Pipeline of FIDs in Queue - The global LNG market remained tight during the third quarter, evidenced by price spikes, labor strikes in Australia and geopolitical turmoil, but demand still rose about 1.5% year/year and is looking stronger, Baker Hughes Co. CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said Thursday. During a wide ranging conference call to discuss quarterly results, Simonelli provided insight into how the oilfield services giant is gaining ground and customers with its technology prowess in both traditional and lower carbon energies. The big footprint in natural gas, and in particular, equipment for the liquefied natural gas market, is key to the executive team’s positive view in the short term.

Halliburton grows electric fracking fleets in Q3 - Houston Business Journal -Halliburton is gradually retiring its diesel-powered hydraulic fracturing fleets in favor of natural gas-powered electric fleets. The Houston-based oil field services company signed on more e-fleet contracts in the third quarter 2023, even seeing a repeat customer, after signing more multi-year contracts for its Zeus fleet than in any prior quarter during Q2. “[I’m] very pleased with the trajectory that we see around e-fleets and they're performing very, very well. So that continues to sort of build up the confidence of the market and that technology,” CEO Jeff Miller said during the company’s Q3 earnings call. Miller added that the technology has a lower total cost of ownership than existing equipment, making it more successful than diesel fleets, which are also higher-emitters. Miller confirmed that while it is not a one-to-one ratio of adding e-fleets and retiring diesel fleets, the company has had the opportunity to retire diesel fleets this year as well. Even as some expect demand for oil to decrease soon — a new report from the International Energy Agency says global demand for oil, natural gas, and coal could all peak by 2030 — Miller is confident there will still be some need for the fleets. “There is no scenario where a large operator will not be fracking. Then it becomes, 'Why wouldn't you want that one fleet at least to be your lowest cost operating fleet because it's burning natural gas, it's emitting less, and it's working at the highest performance?'" Miller said. "At that point, this becomes a much easier discussion because it is the lowest cost operating fleet. It is extremely high efficiency and it lowers their overall cost." Miller, who sees growth for decades based on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ estimate that oil demand will increase by 10 million barrels before the end of the decade and continue growing through 2045, said he sees demand growth for oilfield services to focus in offshore markets. Halliburton posted net income attributable to the company of $716 million for Q3, slightly beating analysts projections and increasing from 31.6% from the third quarter last year. Revenue also increased by 8% year-over-year to $5.8 billion. Revenue growth was led by a 17.4% growth in international revenue growth on the year, led by increased activity in Latin America. North America revenue remained flat on the year and decreased 3% from the previous quarter, driven by decreased pressure pumping services in U.S. land and lower well intervention services in the Gulf of Mexico.

Minnesota regulators OK rare fund to decommission new Enbridge pipeline - Enbridge's new oil pipeline across northern Minnesota has only been operating for two years, but state regulators approved a plan Thursday aimed at making the company pay for eventually decommissioning the project. The Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (PUC) greenlit a compromise between the Calgary-based Enbridge and the state's Department of Commerce, which had disagreed about how long the pipeline — called Line 93 after replacing the former Line 3 — might operate while the energy sector transitions away from fossil fuels. But the trust fund, unusual in the U.S. but common in Enbridge's Canada, still drew criticism from at least one environmental nonprofit. Despite that, Katie Sieben, a Democrat who chairs the five-member PUC, said it was a "good outcome" that pushed Enbridge "to commit a significant amount of resources to ensuring that the existing Line 93 now is pulled out of the ground at the end of its useful life." Under the deal, Enbridge will pay more than $61 million a year into the trust fund until Oct. 1, 2041. That's 20 years after the pipeline started operating. The company estimated decommissioning the new pipeline will cost $1.25 billion. The PUC required this fund when granting a Certificate of Need for the controversial 337-mile project in Minnesota, but it took until now to finalize all the details. Before the deal between Enbridge and Commerce, Enbridge and oil shippers split from Commerce on how quickly Enbridge would need to fill the trust fund. The companies, including Cenovus Energy and ExxonMobil, said contributing over 30 years would better align with what they expect will be the economic life of the pipeline. Shippers like ExxonMobil "bear the majority of the costs of the operation of a pipeline" through tariffs and tolls, including "end-of-life costs" like decommissioning, read a July 28 letter to the PUC from Praveen Duggal, Exxon's manager for logistics, optimization and business development. "An abbreviated collection period would front-load the costs and adversely impact rates for shippers during that period," wrote attorney Brian B. Bell of Dorsey & Whitney LLP, representing Cenovus Energy. "The increased shipper costs will, in turn, unduly increase costs for consumers."

“Super-emitting” oil wells near Denver are releasing 142% more pollution per hour than state average, CSU study finds - The Colorado Sun -- The plugs in old oil and gas wells across Colorado are doing their job, preventing methane from escaping into the atmosphere — except in Adams County, which is home to several super-emitting wells, according to a Colorado State University study. Adams County had three wells with massive emissions, the largest emitting 75 kilograms or 165 pounds of methane per hour, 142% more than the average for unplugged wells in the state. “The CSU study is alarming,” Adams County Commissioner Eva Henry said in an email. “It is very apparent the health and safety of our community and the children in Adams County is in danger.” The average methane emissions for the county were 1,240 grams per hour compared with an average for the rest of the counties surveyed of 32.5 grams per hour. By way of comparison one dairy cow, which belches methane, emits about 40 grams an hour. Between August 2022 and April 2023 CSU researchers measured methane emissions from 108 plugged wells and 226 unplugged, abandoned wells in 17 counties and 63 oil and gas fields in Colorado. There were zero emissions from the 108 plugged wells. “We didn’t see one plugged well that was emitting,” Stuart Riddick, a researcher at CSU’s Energy Institute, told the state Energy and Carbon Management Commission at an Oct. 16 meeting to review the results. The ECMC regulates oil and gas activities. The CSU team went back after a few months and measured 36 of the wells again and the results were the same. The plugs were effective in both wells recently closed and those extending as far back as the 1960s. “Plugging in Colorado is effective,” Riddick said. The biggest emissions appeared to come from wells where production had stopped and the valves were closed, so-called shut-in wells. “Shut-in wells are a potentially big risk, for they aren’t plugged and they aren’t serviced,” Riddick said. “If you leave anything outside for two years in Colorado it is going to corrode.” “The biggest emitting wells were the newer recently abandoned wells,” Riddick said. “In some cases, these wells were not abandoned because they were played out, but because the owner ran into operating problems or went bankrupt.” The orphan wells that were recently in production averaged 3,640 grams of methane per hour compared with 3.6 grams per hour for the remainder of the non-producing, orphan wells. “This is a new type of orphan well,” Riddick said.

Oil companies capture a lot of their CO2. They use it to drill more oil. -Every year, companies around the United States capture around 18 million metric tons of carbon dioxide from natural gas processing plants, oil refineries and power plants. As long as that CO2 — equivalent to around 4 million cars on the road for a year — is buried somewhere deep underground, it can’t contribute to global warming.That’s the theory, anyway. But today, the lion’s share of the CO2 captured from industrial processes doesn’t go back into the ground. Instead, 60 percent of it is used to extract more oil, in a controversial process known as “enhanced oil recovery.” “I think it’s a huge problem,” said Lorne Stockman, research co-director of the advocacy group Oil Change International. “The oil and gas industry has done a very good job of co-opting our climate and clean energy policy.”For over a decade, the U.S. government has been quietly funding the capture of CO2 that is ultimately used to drill more oil. Some experts and researchers argue that the climate impact is net positive: The oil will be drilled anyway, and the process can help companies learn how to capture CO2 more efficiently. But others say that the government shouldn’t be helping companies sustain more fossil fuel extraction.The debate gets at one of the key questions for a country trying to shift away from fossil fuels — when is it still acceptable to financially support the production of oil and gas?Climate and energy experts have said for years that the world will need some amount of carbon capture to zero out carbon emissions. The International Energy Agency estimates that the world will need to be able to capture 1.2 billion tons of CO2 per year by 2050; today, the world’s total carbon capture amounts to just 4 percent of that goal. But for a long time, there wasn’t a way for companies to make much money off burying carbon dioxide underground. The United States did offer a tax credit for CO2 stored permanently, but it was only around $20 per metric ton. Experts say it didn’t give companies enough of an incentive to take on the costs of burying CO2 deep underground in places like saline aquifers — areas of porous rock filled with salty water.So, many oil and gas companies used the CO2 that they captured for a process that already existed: enhanced oil recovery. Oil is removed from a well in three stages: First, natural pressure can push oil toward the surface. Then, drillers inject a fluid, usually water, to produce more. In the final stage, CO2 can be injected into the well, where it mixes with the oil, expands and propels the oil toward the surface. This final stage, enhanced oil recovery, accounts for around 4 percent of U.S. oil production. It’s popular in the Permian Basin — a major oil field that covers West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Most of the CO2 that companies now use for enhanced oil recovery comes from geologic sources, where they dig it up before injecting it into their wells. Some experts point to this to argue that enhanced oil recovery would happen anyway, regardless of whether captured CO2 is available. Benjamin Longstreth, the global director of carbon capture for the Clean Air Task Force, says that as long as captured CO2 isn’t creating more oil production, then using captured CO2 doesn’t change much for the climate. “In both cases, the same quantity of [enhanced oil recovery] is happening,” he said. “And the same quantity of CO2 is going into the Earth.”groups argue that the government shouldn’t befunding this type of oil recovery. As part of President Biden’s signature climate bill, Congress updated a tax credit known as 45Q, which pays companies to capture CO2. The tax credit now offers companies up to$60 per ton of CO2 captured and used for enhanced oil recovery. (Companies get more, up to $85 per ton, if they inject the CO2 underground in something like a saline aquifer.)“Congress should not have created — and later increased the value of — a new oil and gas industry subsidy under the guise of climate emissions mitigation,” said Josh Axelrod, senior advocate for the nature program at the Natural Resources Defense Council.

Fossil fuel firms spent millions on US lawmakers who sponsored anti-protest bills | US news -Fossil fuel companies have spent millions of dollars on lobbying and campaign donations to state lawmakers who sponsored anti-protest laws – which now shield about 60% of US gas and oil operations from protest and civil disobedience, according to a new report from Greenpeace USA.Eighteen states including Montana, Ohio, Georgia, Louisiana, West Virginiaand the Dakotas have enacted sweeping anti-protest laws which boost penalties for trespass near so-called critical infrastructure, that make it far riskier for communities to oppose pipelines and other fossil fuel projects that threaten their land, water and the global climate.Another four states have enacted narrower versions of the same law, but which could still be exploited to issue trumped-up charges against peaceful protesters. Many were based on a “model bill” promoted by the industry-funded American Legislative Exchange Council (Alec).According to the report, nine of the top 10 companies that lobbied most for anti-protest bills since 2017 are fossil fuel companies, including US companies ExxonMobil, Koch Industries and Marathon Petroleum, as well as Canadian companies Enbridge and TC Energy (Trans Canada).In addition, 25 fossil fuel and energy companies have contributed more than $5m to state anti-protest bill sponsors in this timeframe, data from political finance trackers Open Secrets and Follow the Money shows.According to Dollars v Democracy 2023: Inside the Fossil Fuel Industry’s Playbook to Suppress Protest and Dissent in the United States , a playbook of tactics has been deployed by corporations, law enforcement agencies and fossil fuel-friendly lawmakers in the US since the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) protests at Standing Rock in 2016. This includes mass arrests, spurious litigation, intelligence sharing, harsh policing tactics such as water cannons and sophisticated public relations efforts to depict activists as troublemakers and extremists, the report says.It’s part of a global strategy reported by the Guardian to silence, discredit and criminalize environmental activists and Indigenous rights defenders opposed to polluting energy, mining and other extractive projects that are incompatible with meaningful climate action.“We are seeing an escalation of tactics to criminalize, bully, and sue those working for climate action, Indigenous rights and environmental justice… [as] oil and gas companies find new ways to delay the transition to clean energy and protect their own profits,” said Ebony Twilley Martin, the executive director of Greenpeace USA. “Frontline activists should not face extreme, life-altering legal risks for putting their bodies on the line to keep our planet habitable.’ Since 2017, more than 250 anti-protest bills have been introduced in 45 states including legislation to eliminate driver liability for hitting protesters and create felony offenses for demonstrations construed as riots, according to theInternational Center for Not-for-Profit Law (ICNL).The bills appear to have proliferated as a response to prominent student, environmental and racial justice movements such as Standing Rock and Black Lives Matter, and experts say they restrict the first amendment protected right to free speech, assembly and protest.

60% of US Oil and Gas Infrastructure Now Protected by Anti-Protest Laws: Greenpeace -In the seven years since the massive protests against the Dakota Access pipeline at Standing Rock, the fossil fuel industry and their allies in politics and law enforcement have been hard at work to prevent a repeat: Around 60% of oil and gas infrastructure in the U.S. is now shielded by anti-protest laws that make direct action much riskier for activists and frontline communities who want to protect their local and global home from dangerous pollution, a new Greenpeace report has found.The report, Dollars vs. Democracy 2023: Inside the Fossil Fuel Industry's Playbook to Suppress Protest and Dissent in the United States, reveals that fossil fuel companies made up nine of the 10 most determined lobbyists for anti-protest measures since 2017 and that 25 oil, gas, coal, and energy companies contributed more than $5 million to legislators who sponsored these laws."Our current climate emergency is a direct result of the oil and gas industry’s operations," Greenpeace USA executive director Ebony Twilley Martin said in a statement. "Frontline activists should not face extreme, life-altering legal risks for putting their bodies on the line to keep our planet habitable. Oil and gas companies are finding new and dangerous ways to delay the transition to clean energy and protect their own profits."The oil and gas industry has played an outsize role in the spread of so-called "critical infrastructure" laws. These laws impose extra penalties for campaigners who trespass on the property of pipelines and other fossil fuel infrastructure, despite the fact that states already have anti-trespass laws on the books. In 2017, Marathon Petroleum and the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers pushed the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) to adopt an anti-fossil fuel protest measure as one of its "model bills." ALEC is a shadowy network of corporations and lawmakers that prepares bill templates aligned with business interests that can be easily spread from state to state.Since 2017, 18 states have passed critical infrastructure laws that now protect around 60% of oil and gas infrastructure, and four other states have passed slightly watered-down versions of these laws. In 2023 alone, lawmakers have introduced 23 anti-protest bills in 15 states, and four states have passed anti-fossil fuel protest laws. North Carolina passed the most draconian of the year. It classifies trespassing on an energy facility as a felony punishable with up to two years in prison and attempting to “obstruct, impede, or impair the services of transmissions of an energy facility" as felonies that carry up to 19 years in prison and $250,000 in fines. Oregon, Utah, and Georgia also passed more limited anti-protest laws.The oil, gas, and coal industry has financed the spread of these laws: Nine of the top 10 lobbyists for these bills from 2017 to 2023 were Marathon, ExxonMobil, Enbridge, TC Energy, Koch Industries, Chevron, Energy Transfer, Williams Companies, and Valero. In addition, 25 fossil fuel companies gave $5 billion to lawmakers pushing these laws, with the top five donors being Duke Energy, Dominion Energy, Marathon Petroleum, BNSF Railway Co., and Koch Industries.

AIDEA Sues DOI over Canceled Alaska Leases - The Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority (AIDEA) has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Interior (DOI) for the alleged illegal canceling of leases in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) 1002 area. The lawsuit was filed in the Washington DC District Court. Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland had authorized the cancellation of the remaining seven oil and gas leases issued by the previous administration in the Coastal Plain. The leases were suspended in June 2021 following the issuance of Secretary’s Order 3401, which identified “multiple legal deficiencies in the underlying record supporting the leases”. The AIDEA said in a statement that the DOI’s cancellation of lease agreements is unlawful since the department “failed to adhere to its own rules governing lease termination, rendering its cancellation of the 1002 area leases invalid”. The AIDEA further stated that the DOI’s unilateral decision “violates constitutional and statutory due process rights” and “was inadequately reasoned and unsupported by facts, making the lease cancellation decision arbitrary and capricious”. The AIDEA reiterated that the 1002 area leases were lawful, adding that the DOI’s reversal from its original position “directly contravenes and frustrates Congress’s directive in the Tax Act to hold an initial sale and issue leases for oil and gas production and development by 2021”. “The federal government is determined to strip away Alaska’s ability to support itself, and we have got to stop it”, Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy said in the statement. “Alaska does responsible oil and gas development in the Arctic under stricter environmental standards than anywhere else in the world. Yet the federal government is focused on trying to stop our ability to produce oil and gas. Each action they take demonstrates a failure to comprehend the worldwide demand for oil and gas. If Alaska continues to be denied its constitutional right to safely develop resources, countries with much lower environmental standards will gladly fill that void with significant environmental impacts. The State of Alaska will continue being bold in defending our rights. We will not allow illegal actions to occur against Alaska and I fully support this lawsuit”. “This lawsuit wouldn’t be necessary had the Biden administration followed the law that I drafted, consulted with the Alaska Natives who actually live on the North Slope, or simply acted in America’s best interest”, U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski said. “Instead, we’re watching an administration soften sections with an authoritarian regime in Venezuela, while effectively sanctioning Alaska’s economy. At this precarious time in the world, all this does is increase our reliance on foreign oil, harm our energy and national security, and drive up fuel costs at the pump”. “By outsourcing energy development, President Biden is empowering and funding America’s adversaries, harming the global environment with lower standards and higher emissions, taking good-paying jobs away from hard-working Americans, and disregarding the voices of the indigenous people of the Arctic region who strongly support responsible resource development”, U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan said. “I strongly support AIDEA’s lawsuit against this lawless administration, a critically important effort to defend the rule of law and protect the interests of Alaskans and all Americans”.

It's Very Difficult for USA to Reload Strategic Petroleum Reserve - The U.S. would probably happily re-load its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), but it is very difficult to do so while the global oil market is running a deficit. That’s what Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), said in a report sent to Rigzone on Monday, adding that the country has drawn down its SPR over the latest years to “only 50 percent of capacity”. “It will have to wait to the next oil market downturn,” Schieldrop said in the report. “But that also implies that the next downturn will likely be fairly short lived and also fairly shallow. Unless of course the U.S. chooses to forgo the opportunity,” he added. In the report, Schieldrop noted that crude oil prices would probably have to rally to $150-200 per barrel before the U.S. would consider pushing another 100-200 million barrels from the SPR into the commercial market. “As such the firepower of its SPR as a geopolitical oil pricing tool is now somewhat muted,” he said in the report. The Chief Commodities Analyst highlighted in the report that most of the recent U.S. SPR draw down was “in response to the crisis in Ukraine as it was invaded by Russia with loss of oil supply from Russia thereafter”. The U.S. has no problems with security of supply of crude oil, Schieldrop stated in the report. “U.S. refineries have preferences for different kinds of crude slates and as a result it still imports significant volumes of crude of different qualities,” he said in the report. “But overall, it is a net exporter of hydrocarbon liquids. It doesn’t need all that big strategic reserve as a security of supply anymore … Essentially the U.S. doesn’t need such a sizable SPR anymore to secure coverage of its daily consumption,” he added.

NEBC’s Montney Pipeline Connector Gains Approval, with Limits on Indigenous Control - A two-year regulatory ordeal has ended in success for a US$262 million natural gas liquids (NGL) pipeline system that would carry Montney Shale production in northeastern British Columbia (BC) to an Alberta hub. Montney Shale The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) recommended final approval of the 125-mile NEBC Connector, sponsored by NorthRiver Midstream. The dual-pipe connection with 91,000 b/d capacity would begin in the Fort St. John region. CER’s analysis generated a 387-page report on a routine construction application that escalated into a marathon test case on northern native rights to influence, manage or stop industrial development. The case drew interest from 21 Indigenous tribes, which sought to enforce a BC court verdict requiring the BC Energy Regulator to give a project...

Exxon, Chevron make big oil acquisitions in the face of uncertain future for fossil fuels - Oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron have recently announced major acquisitions of oil companies, expanding their oil and gas assets. Some analysts see these acquisitions as big bets on a fossil-fueled future, while others argue the moves could be viewed as consolidation in an industry that may be on the decline. Those conflicting reads come amid similarly dueling projections on the future of fossil fuels more broadly: An international energy organization predicted this week that fossil fuels could peak this decade, while a U.S. forecaster recently said global energy emissions will increase through the middle of this century. Regardless of broader questions, the energy companies touted the deals as good for business. Exxon this month announced it was purchasing oil and gas producer Pioneer Natural Resources and paying nearly $60 million for it. The move expands Exxon’s footprint in the Permian Basin, an oil and gas-producing area in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. The company said its production in the basin would more than double to the equivalent of 1.3 million barrels of oil per day. A press release from the company said the move would be “expected to generate double-digit returns by recovering more” energy. This week, Chevron said it would acquire Hess, an oil and gas producer that’s also known for its toy trucks, for $53 million. A press release from Chevron touted Hess’s positions in Guyana and in the Bakken — an oil-producing region in North Dakota and Montana. Fernando Valle, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said the two acquisitions represent Exxon and Chevron doubling down on their oil business. He said the acquisitions show that “clearly, Exxon and Chevron don’t see the peak oil” coming as soon as projected by a report saying it could come this decade. “I think they’re grabbing market share because others are pulling back, but I think within five years we’ll see that we need more development, more exploration, more supply,” Valle added.

Chart of the Week: The US is officially the world’s biggest LNG exporter - The United States has reached an energy milestone that’s squarely at odds with its ambition to be a climate leader: In the first six months of 2023, it exported more liquefied natural gas or LNG than any other country in the world, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. LNG — fossil gas that’s been cooled into a liquid state that’s easier to store and ship — causes planet-warming emissions at every step from extraction to transportation to burning. Qatar was the world’s leading LNG exporter for years, until Australia surpassed it in 2021. The two countries have continued to export similar amounts of LNG since. Meanwhile, U.S. exports have skyrocketed. Just seven years ago, the U.S. barely produced or exported any LNG. Now it’s the world leader, and its exports are on track to keep growing.

Spot LNG shipping rates continue to decline - - Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier fleet fell for the fourth week in a row, according to Spark Commodities. Last week, spot LNG freight rates continued their downward trend. The Spark30S Atlantic rate fell $11,500 per day week-on-week to reach $135,500 per day, while the spot rate on the Pacific Spark25 route fell $32,750 per day week-on-week to reach $135,550 per day. According to Spark’s data on Friday, the Atlantic rate fell $3,000 to $132,500 per day, while the Pacific rate decreased $6050 to $129,500 per day. As per European LNG pricing, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month dropped from the last week. Last week, the Spark NWE DES LNG for November rallied over 40 percent to $15.563/MMBtu for November deliveries on heightened geopolitical tensions. NWE DES LNG for November was assessed on Thursday at $14.975 per MMBtu, a $0.565 discount to the TTF price. The TTF price for November settled at $15.563/MMBtu on Thursday, while the JKM spot LNG price for December settled at $18.245/MMBtu. The JKM LNG price rose more than $3/MMBtu from last week.

Chinese ship's anchor caused damage to Baltic gas pipeline, Finland suggests -A Chinese container ship's dislodged anchor caused damage to a Baltic Sea gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia, Finnish police believe. The Hong Kong-flagged cargo vessel Newnew Polar Bear is responsible for the damage earlier this month to the undersea Balticconnector pipeline spanning the Gulf of Finland, said the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI), citing evidence and data. Investigators said the Finnish navy has retrieved an anchor from the location where the pipeline ruptured on 8 October, and they were investigating whether it belonged to the Chinese vessel. A 1.5 to 4-metre-wide seabed trail, leading to the point where the pipeline was broken, was likely caused by the dislodged six-tonne anchor. "There are traces in the [anchor] which indicate that it has been in contact with the gas pipeline," said Detective Superintendent Risto Lohi, who is heading the NBI investigation. Officials said that establishing if the damage was intentional, unintentional, or due to "bad seafaring" would be the focus of the next phase of the probe. On 8 October, Finnish and Estonian gas system operators observed a significant pressure drop in the pipeline, leading to it being shut down.

Norway's Hydrocarbon Production Continues to Drop --Norway’s petroleum production totaled about six billion cubic feet of oil equivalent so far in 2023, with September figures slipping further compared to the previous month. According to the data released by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD), average production during September stood at 17.16 million cubic feet per day (MMcfpd). That slipped from the 22.32 MMcfpd the NPD reported for August. For September 2022, the NPD reported an average production of 21.01 MMcfpd. The directorate also noted that the total production figure achieved in September 2023 was 22.4 percent below its forecast. In barrel terms, the preliminary production figure for September 2023 was 1.797 million barrels of oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and condensate. “Total gas sales were 6.0 billion Sm3 (GSm3), which is 3.6 (GSm3) lower than the previous month,” the NPD said in its announcement. The directorate added that average daily liquids production in September was 1.644 million barrels of oil, 138,000 barrels of NGL and 15,000 barrels of condensate. Oil production in September was 4.7 percent lower than the NPD’s forecast and 0.7 percent lower than the forecast so far this year. The total petroleum production of about six billion cubic feet of oil equivalent so far in 2023 consisted of 2.73 billion cubic feet of oil, 342.5 million cubic feet of NGL and condensate and about 2.95 billion cubic feet of gas for sale, the NPD said in its report for September. .

More Natural Gas Production, LNG Projects Needed to Better Balance Global Energy Markets, IGU Says - The war in Ukraine and years of underinvestment have placed the global natural gas market in an “unstable equilibrium” that could linger for decades without additional funding for upstream production and LNG infrastructure, according to the International Gas Union (IGU). In its annual Global Gas Report, the IGU and contributors from Rystad Energy AS and Snam SpA outlined how a surge in liquefied natural gas, mostly from the United States, has helped ease price spikes from record levels following the invasion of Ukraine last year. However, prices are still well above pre-war levels and a razor-thin global supply balance has led to more volatile price swings. Looking into the mid-term, IGU researchers said a failure to secure natural gas supply growth could derail energy...

EU Considers Extending Natural Gas Price Cap as Supply Concerns Persist - Natural Gas Intelligence - Despite record high European Union (EU ) natural gas storage levels and lower prices, the bloc’s executive arm may extend an emergency limit on the cost of gas that was implemented earlier this year to avoid any potential price hikes this winter. The European Commission (EC) is reportedly considering an extension as an investigation of a leak on the Balticonnector pipeline continues and supply concerns grow as war rages in Israel. The EC would not confirm news media reports about the possibility of an extension or other energy measures being considered. “As for all emergency energy measures we introduced last year, the market correction mechanism expires in February next year,” an EC spokesperson said. “But it is premature to speculate on the potential extension of the cap...

EU Regulator Calls for Natural Gas Demand Cuts Over ‘Subsidizing’ LNG -The European Union’s (EU) energy regulatory agency has recommended bloc members continue reducing natural gas consumption in the short-term and prioritize energy projects that cut future demand. Since European natural gas prices rose to peak levels last summer, the region’s supply and demand balance has found an uneasy equilibrium thanks to demand reduction policies and an influx of mostly U.S. LNG. In a recently published market report, the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) offered several recommendations based on its review of extreme natural gas volatility following last year’s Russian invasion of Ukraine. Chief among them was for members “to maintain political commitments to reduce gas consumption.”

Surge in Worldwide LNG Projects to Ease Natural Gas Supply Concerns, IEA Says - Natural Gas Intelligence The International Energy Agency (IEA) is projecting that global demand for natural gas will start to dip by the end of this decade, but should remain strong and near a historic peak through 2050. In its latest 350-page annual World Energy Outlook (WEO), researchers said that for the first time in the history of the forecast, they expect demand for all three fossil fuels – oil, natural gas and coal – to decline by 2030 under all scenarios. “The energy world will look very different by 2030, even under today’s policy settings,” said IEA chief Faith Birol. He said fossil fuels as a share of global energy supply, which has been around 80% for decades, would “decline significantly by 2030.” Researchers acknowledged, however, that some key uncertainties could affect that outlook...

GTT booked orders for 52 LNG carriers in January-September - French LNG containment giant GTT received orders for 52 liquefied natural gas carriers and one floating LNG producer in the first nine months of this GTT said in its financial report on Wednesday that deliveries of these LNG carriers are scheduled between the first quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2028.The FLNG, being built at South Korea’s SHI, is expected to be delivered in the first quarter of 2027.GTT won orders for 10 LNG carriers in the third quarter and 42 LNG carriers in the first half.The Paris-based firm received record 134 LNG carrier orders in January-September last year and record 162 orders for LNG carriers in 2022.Besides these LNG carriers and the FLNG, GTT received an order from Chinese shipyard Yangzijiang to design the tanks for ten LNG-powered ultra-large containerships and for five very large LNG-powered containerships with South Korea’s HD Hyundai Heavy Industries.Delivery of all these container ships is scheduled between the second quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2028.Earlier this year, GTT’s chief Philippe Berterottière said GTT is expecting that there will be up to 450 orders for large LNG carriers over the 2023-2032 period.Commenting on the company’s January-September results, Berterottière said that with 52 orders for LNG carriers and one FLNG unit, “the commercial performance of our core business continues to be very strong.”He noted that GTT booked 15 orders for LNG as fuel in the third quarter of 2023, “indicating a resumption of commercial activity as LNG spot prices stabilize.”“LNG demand remains particularly high and sustainable, as illustrated by the number of final investment decisions for new liquefaction plants made since the beginning of the year, leading to additional LNG carrier needs,” he said.This year’s FID’s include Venture Global LNG’s second Plaquemines LNG phase, Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG project, and NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG project.

Algerian Natural Gas Exports Surge, Providing Additional Supply Cushion for Europe - Algeria is keeping its promise to supply Europe with additional natural gas as the continent continues replacing Russian imports. Algeria LNG exports reached record highs during the first nine months of this year, increasing 35% year-over-year to 9.94 million tons (Mt), according to Kpler data. Algeria liquefied natural gas exports are being supported by a growing surplus at home. Domestic gas production is outgrowing consumption, according to Kpler LNG analyst Laura Page.

Germany's DET plans to launch two FSRU terminals in Q1 2024 - German LNG terminal operator Deutsche Energy Terminal is planning to commission its FSRU-based facilities in Stade and Wilhelmshaven in the first quarter of 2024. Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action established Düsseldorf-based DET in January to manage FSRU-based LNG import terminals. Following the launch of these two facilities in Stade and Wilhelmshaven, DET will operate in total four FSRU-based LNG terminals.The German government, helped by Uniper, RWE, and TES and Engie chartered in total five FSRUs from Hoegh LNG, Dynagas, and Excelerate Energy.Uniper and RWE installed Hoegh’s FSRUs Hoegh Esperanza and Hoegh Gannet in Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbüttel. The Wilhelmshaven 1 terminal has a capacity of 6 bcm per year and the Brunsbüttel terminal has a capacity of 3,5-5 bcm per year.Also, the government sub-chartered the FSRU Transgas Power, owned by Dynagas, to private firm Deutsche Regas to serve the planned LNG import terminal in the port of Mukran.’

IEA Sees Growing Global Natural Gas Supply, Resilient Long-Term Demand Through 2050 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) is projecting that global demand for natural gas will start to dip by the end of this decade, but should remain strong and near a historic peak through 2050. In its latest 350-page annual World Energy Outlook (WEO), researchers said that for the first time in the history of the forecast, they expect demand for all three fossil fuels – oil, natural gas and coal – to decline by 2030 under all scenarios. “The energy world will look very different by 2030, even under today’s policy settings,” said IEA chief Faith Birol. He said fossil fuels as a share of global energy supply, which has been around 80% for decades, would “decline significantly by 2030.” Researchers acknowledged, however, that some key uncertainties could affect...

Singapore LNG wins approval for second terminal - Singapore LNG, the operator of the country’s first LNG import terminal on Jurong Island, has secured approval from the Singapore government to develop and operate the country’s second LNG import facility. Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong announced SLNG’s plan to develop the second LNG terminal in Singapore on Tuesday during SLNG’s 10th anniversary gala dinner. He said in a speech that the terminal would have up to 5 mtpa capacity to “meet Singapore’s energy needs and enhance our energy security.” “Our current LNG terminal has throughput capacity of about 10 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). Our peak utilisation this year was 60 percent, so we currently still have some headroom,” he said. “But this will eventually not be enough as our demand for LNG continues to grow,” Wong said. With a second terminal, Singapore would be able to meet its power generation needs entirely with LNG, if necessary, Wong said. “Unlikely we will have to do so anytime soon, since we will continue to have access to piped natural gas,” he said. “But having the additional capacity will be helpful; it will give SLNG the flexibility to better meet the growing LNG needs of the shipping industry and the wider region, and advance our position as an LNG bunkering and trading hub,” Wong said. “We are still studying the exact size and the best way to build this terminal. All of you know that waterfront land comes at a premium in Singapore,” Wong said. “So one possibility is to start with an offshore terminal at Jurong Port. Further studies are being conducted, and more details will be announced in due course,”

Eni says to launch Congo FLNG project in December - Italian energy firm Eni said it will launch the first floating LNG production unit in Congo in December. Officials from Eni and from Belgium’s Exmar, Congo’s SNPC, and Drydocks World gathered on Saturday to celebrate the sail away of the Tango FLNG and the Excalibur FSU from Dubai to the Republic of Congo, also known as Congo-Brazzaville. Eni said in a statement the milestone aligns with the timeline of the Congo LNG project, whose first phase will startup in December 2023. Moreover, Tango FLNG, which has a liquefaction capacity of about 1 billion cubic meters per annum of gas, or 0.6 mtpa, will be moored 3 kilometers offshore along with the Excalibur FSU vessel upon their arrival in Congo. In August last year, Eni signed a deal to buy Exmar’s Tango FLNG. The floating LNG producer, delivered in 2017 by China’s Wison, has a storage capacity of 16,100 cbm. . The Congo LNG project leverages Marine XII gas resources and existing production facilities in a new, phased approach that will allow to reach about 4.5 bcm per year of gas liquefaction capacity at plateau, as well as zero routine gas flaring, Eni said.

Eni inks three-year deal for Indonesian LNG supplies - Italian energy firm Eni has signed a three-year liquefied natural gas sales and purchase agreement with Merakes LNG Sellers to secure more LNG volumes from Indonesia.The deal is for 0.8 billion cubic meters (bcm) of LNG per year and starts from January 2024, Eni said in a statement.Back in 2021, Eni started gas production from the Merakes project offshore Indonesia.Gas supplies from the field will help extend the life of Pertamina’s Bontang LNG facility in East Kalimantan.Earlier this year, a unit of energy trader Vitol also signed a three-year deal with the Merakes LNG Sellers to offtake volumes from the Bontang LNG facility.Merakes is part of the East Sepinggan PSC, jointly owned by Eni, Neptune Energy, and Pertamina.The Bontang LNG plant launched liquefaction operations in the 1970s and has been supplying LNG ever since, primarily to Asian markets.

QatarEnergy seals 27-year LNG supply deal with Eni - State-owned QatarEnergy and Italy’s Eni signed a 27-year sale and purchase deal for the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar to Italy.Qatar’s energy minister and chief executive of QatarEnergy, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, and Claudio Descalzi, CEO of Eni, signed the SPA during a ceremony in Doha, according to a statement by QatarEnergy issued on Monday. Under the deal, Eni will receive up to 1 mtpa, or up to 1.5 billion cubic meters per year, from the joint venture between QatarEnergy and Eni that holds an interest in Qatar’s North Field East (NFE) expansion project.Eni is a partner in the 32 mtpa NFE expansion project with a 3.125 percent share.The volumes will be supplied to the receiving terminal FSRU Italia, currently located in Piombino, Italy, with expected deliveries starting from 2026 with a duration of 27 years.Eni said in a separate statement the LNG supply contract will contribute to Italy’s security of supply through the diversification of its supply sources.The Italian firm is already importing in Europe 2.9 bcm per year from Qatar since 2007 under a long-term supply agreement.QatarEnergy and UK-based Shell recently signed two long-term LNG sale and purchase deals for the supply of up to 3.5 mtpa of LNG from Qatar to the Netherlands for a period of 27 years.Prior to that, QatarEnergy also signed two deals with TotalEnergies for up to 3.5 mtpa and a period of 27 years. These supplies are intended for the Fos Cavaou LNG receiving terminal in southern France.Both Shell and TotalEnergies are partners in the giant Qatari LNG expansion project.Together, NFE and NFS form the wider North Field expansion project to increase LNG production from the North Field, adding 48 mtpa to Qatar’s export capacity and bringing it to 126 mtpa.

S. Korea's Hyundai, Saudi Aramco ink $2.4b gas plant deal | China Daily --South Korea's Hyundai Engineering & Construction and Hyundai Engineering have signed a $2.4 billion contract with oil giant Saudi Aramco to build a gas processing plant, Seoul's presidential office said on Tuesday. The deal was signed on Monday in Riyadh at a ceremony to mark 50 years of construction cooperation between the two countries, with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol attending as part of his state visit to the kingdom. The two builders, affiliates of Hyundai Motor Group, have been working on the first phase of Aramco's Jafurah gas processing facilities project after winning the order in 2021, Hyundai said in a statement confirming the signing of the $2.4 billion contract on the second phase. The joint statement also called for greater efforts to prevent the escalation and spread of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and urged both sides to stop targeting civilians and allow the "rapid and unimpeded delivery" of humanitarian aid Jafurah is Saudi's largest unconventional non-oil associated gas field, with reserves estimated at 200 trillion cubic feet (5.7 trillion cubic meters) of raw gas. Aramco has said daily output could reach around 2 billion cubic feet by 2030. Yoon and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman welcomed the agreement in a joint statement after talks, pledging further cooperation in construction and infrastructure, including on Saudi Arabia's NEOM mega-city and Vision 2030 reform plans. The joint statement also called for greater efforts to prevent the escalation and spread of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and urged both sides to stop targeting civilians and allow the "rapid and unimpeded delivery" of humanitarian aid. State-run Korea National Oil Corp also clinched a storage deal with Aramco during Yoon's visit that allows the Saudi company to store 5.3 million barrels of oil in South Korea's reserve facilities in the port of Ulsan for five years.

Oman LNG inks shareholding deals with international firms - State-owned producer Oman LNG has signed shareholding deals with international companies, including Shell and TotalEnergies. Besides Oman LNG and Qalhat LNG shareholding agreements, Oman LNG, in which the government of Oman holds 51 percent, said it had also signed a gas supply agreement with state-owned Integrated Gas Company (IGC) to extend the gas supplies beyond 2024. “The agreement encapsulates extending the gas supply period for additional 10 years until 2023 at a total volume of 10.4 million metric tonnes per annum, reflecting the company’s drive towards its beyond 2024 aspirations,” it said. These deals renew Oman LNG’s strategic partnerships with international firms and will contribute to boosting Oman’s revenue from natural gas. Based on these agreements, Oman LNG’s shareholding structure will continue with Oman Investment Authority, Shell, TotalEnergies, Korea LNG, Mitsui & Co., Mitsubishi, PTTEP, and Itochu. Qalhat LNG’s shareholding will include Oman Investment Authority, Oman LNG, Itochu, and Mitsubishi, the LNG producer said.

India boosts LNG imports in September - India’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports rose in September compared to the same month last year, according to the preliminary data from the oil ministry’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell. The country imported 2.27 billion cubic meters, or about 1.7 million tonnes of LNG, in September, a rise of 17.5 percent compared to the same month in 2022, PPAC said. During April-September, India took 15.11 bcm of LNG, or some 11.1 million tonnes, up by 9.4 percent, PPAC said. India paid $1.2 billion for September LNG imports, down from $1.4 billion last year, while costs dropped from $9.4 billion in the April-September period last year to $6.6 billion during the same six months this year, it said. As per India’s natural gas production, it reached 3.02 bcm in September, up by 6.1 percent compared to the corresponding month of the previous year. During April-September, gas production rose by 4 percent to 17.87 bcm, PPAC said. At the moment, India imports LNG via seven facilities with a combined capacity of about 47.7 million tonnes.

Swedish ferry runs aground and spills diesel A ferry ran aground in southern Sweden on Sunday, spilling diesel over several kilometres, but the vessel's 75 passengers were taken to safety, officials said. The Marco Polo TT-Line ferry got stuck south of Karlshamn early in the day, according to the coastguard. The ferry "leaked diesel fuel for several kilometres before running aground", it said in a statement, adding that thick fog in area and made it difficult to work out the extent of the spill. Investigators are looking into the cause of the accident and whether maritime law was breached, senior coastguard investigator Jonatan Orn told public radio P4. The ferry was operating between the ports of Trelleborg and Karlshamn, but Orn said the ferry had strayed from its usual route when it ran aground. The oil slick had reached land by late afternoon on a coastal strip in the municipality of Solvesborg, said local authorities. The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency has been called in to help and will begin decontaminating the site on Monday, they added. The ship's hull had been holed in the bow and middle of its hull, but a senior official at the Swedish Transport Agency told the TT news agency there was no risk of it sinking.

Sweden Fines Ferry Officers for Negligence Causing Grounding and Oil Spill -Swedish prosecutors today announced fines for the captain and third officer of the ro/pax ferry Marco Polo(15,99 gross tons) charging that the two officers acted recklessly navigating the ferry which contributed to its grounding and an ongoing environmental clean-up. This came as the Swedish Coast Guard is calling up additional resources to help with the ongoing efforts and elected officials warned it could take a year to fully recover.The ferry, which is operated by TT-Line of Germany, had departed Trelleborg, Sweden on October 21 sailing for Karlshamn, Sweden when it reported grounding on Sunday, October 22. The Swedish Coast Guard assisted in the evacuation of 41 passengers and 10 of the 30 crew onboard. During the subsequent investigation led by the Coast Guard along with the public prosecutor, they reconstructed the events leading up to the grounding and confirmed earlier reports that the ship touched ground sustaining damage and was likely leaking, but continued under its own power before grounding a second time. The hull of the vessel was damaged causing it to take on water and as of Thursday, the Coast Guard is reporting that 14 cubic meters of oil waste has been recovered from the sea and nine cubic meters from the shoreline. Up to approximately three miles of the coastline has been fouled by the oil. According to the prosecutor, the third mate was in command of the ferry before the first event. Despite reduced visibility, including fog in the area and nighttime darkness, he was proceeding only using the vessel’s electronic chart. The Coast Guard believes the electronic position system malfunctioned while prosecutors charged him with negligence for failing to use other navigational aids such as the radar or to add a lookout.Based on their interviews with the crew, the Coast Guard investigation shows the crew thought they were to the east of Hanö, a small island off the southeast coast of Sweden, when in fact they were in the channel between Hanö and the mainland. After the first grounding, the master of the ferry took command and he too continued to rely on the electronic chart. The ship went hard aground during the second grounding reporting the incident around 6:25 a.m.The two officers were each fined with one fine of approximately $3,600 and the other being approximately $1,500. The prosecutor highlighted to reporters that Swedish law provides mild penalties for negligence, which these crimes were judged to be, versus harsher penalties for intentional acts. However, the Coast Guard still can impose a water pollution fee and an additional investigation is underway regarding the seaworthiness of the vessel based on the malfunctions.

Oil tankers detained off Malaysia after ‘unauthorised’ STS operation - The Malaysian coastguard has boarded and detained two ageing oil tankers accused of carrying out an unauthorised ship-to-ship transfer of oil off its coastline. A helicopter-based team boarded the Chinese-operated, 300,361-dwt Artemis III (built 1996) and the Indian-managed, 159,106-dwt Ocean Hermana (built 2004) after the crews refused to cooperate with a request for an inspection, the Malaysian authorities said. Campaign group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) identified the two vessels and posted a satellite image of the ships side-by-side that was taken on Tuesday. The group said the transfer involved an Iranian cargo after tracking Artemis III loading around 2m barrels of crude at Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal in August. It said Artemis III carried out a ship-to-ship transfer of around a third of those barrels to an aframax tanker in the same area off Malaysia in October before authorities took action. The Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA) said it was investigating a case of conducting STS operations and anchoring without permission. The two captains are also being investigated for obstructing the duties of a public servant. Both offences carry potential fines and terms of imprisonment, the MMEA said in a statement. Maritime First Admiral Nurul Hizam bin Zakaria, the Johor State maritime director, said both ships had 26 crew members on board. The MMEA did not identify the vessels but released photos after the operation 60km east of the coastal village of Tanjung Sedili, Johor, in southern Malaysia. One showed the name of the Artemis III and the rudimentary paint job over the former name of the vessel, the Aglaia. A second photo published by local media showed the name of the second tanker. The Honduras-flagged Artemis III is owned by a single-ship company that is managed by Efferiie, which is based in Dalian,

India Expected To Reject Russian Demand To Pay For Oil In Chinese Yuan -- India’s government is expected to reject demands from Russian oil companies to pay for Russia’s crude oil imports in Chinese yuan, Indian officials told Bloomberg on Friday.Russia and its companies need Chinese currency as Russian trade has become much more reliant on China after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions on Russia. Moscow has a lot of Indian rupees, but it can’t spend them all while it needs yuan. Russian firms have largely ditched dollar and euro payments due to the Western sanctions and the fact that Russia has been cut off from the SWIFT banking payment system.Russian oil companies have been asking lately for payments in yuan, but the Indian government – which owns 70% of the refiners in the world’s third-largest crude oil importer – will not agree to these demands, according to Bloomberg’s sources.Some crude cargoes from Russia to India have been recently delayed because the parties have failed to agree on the currency of the payment, sources at refiners told Bloomberg. Earlier this week, unnamed Finance Ministry sources told Reuters that payment in Chinese currency of seven cargoes of Russian crude oil imported by state-run Indian oil refineries is being held up over the Indian government’s new-found hesitancy to accept this form of payment.State-run Indian Oil Corporation has settled purchases in yuan previously, while Bharat Petroleum Corp and Hindustan Petroleum have not yet resorted to the Chinese currency, though direct Russian suppliers have requested this.India has hiked imports of Russian crude in the past year due to the cheaper Russian supply compared to crudes from the Middle East.

IEA Says Global Oil Demand to Reach Peak This Decade - Global demand for oil will reach its peak this decade, the International Energy Agency predicted for the first time, amid growing popularity of electric cars and the cooling of China’s economy. The predicted peak, which the agency also anticipates for coal and natural gas, doesn’t mean a rapid plunge in fossil fuel consumption is imminent. It will probably be followed by “an undulating plateau lasting for many years” with emissions remaining too high to limit global warming to 1.5C, the IEA said. The world will consume as much as 102 million barrels a day of oil by the late 2020s, with the volumes dropping to 97 million barrels a day by mid-century, according to the base-case, called the Stated Policies Scenario, laid out on Tuesday in the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook. “The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. “Claims that oil and gas represent safe or secure choices for the world’s energy and climate future look weaker than ever.” Oil demand in the petrochemicals, aviation and shipping industries will continue to increase to 2050 but it won’t be enough to offset lower demand from road transport amid “astounding rise in electric vehicle sales,” the IEA said. China, which has for years driven the growth in global crude consumption, will see its appetite weakening over the next few years, with total consumption declining in the long run, according to the report. Global oil consumption will follow the same path as demand for other hydrocarbons. “We are on track to see all fossil fuels peak before 2030,” the IEA said. It’s the first time all scenarios drawn up by the Paris-based agency for global energy markets point to a near-term decline in hydrocarbon consumption. The IEA’s base-case reflects energy policies currently pursued by governments worldwide and the continued ramifications of last year’s energy crisis. The IEA’s second scenario, which assumes all governments meet their energy and climate pledges in full and on time, envisions global oil demand peaking at 93 million barrels a day in 2030, with a decline to 55 million barrels per day in 2050. The third, a net zero emissions scenario in which global warming is limited to 1.5C, would see global demand plunging to 77 million barrels a day in 2030 and just under 25 million barrels a day in 2050. The process of decarbonizing the global economy “will be a long one and fossil fuel producers remain influential” in the years to come, according to the report. In the base-case, Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will keep their combined share of the oil market at 45% to 48% until the end of this decade. By the middle of the century, that will rise above 50% thanks to higher production in Saudi Arabia, the de-facto OPEC leader. Russia, on the other hand, is set to lose some 3.5 million barrels a day, or roughly a third, of its oil production by 2050, “as it struggles to maintain output from existing fields or to develop large new ones,” the IEA said. The IEA also assumes that in the years to come Iran and Venezuela will be able to grow their output thanks to a gradual relaxation of international sanctions.

OPEC, IEA diverge further in 2024 oil demand forecasts – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) diverged further in their predictions of global oil demand growth in 2024 as they hold contrasting views on next year’s economic outlook. In its monthly oil market report, the oil producer group OPEC stuck to its previous forecast of a “healthy” 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) demand growth in 2024, explaining that “solid global economic growth, amid continued improvements in China, is expected to further boost oil consumption.”

OPEC plans no immediate action after Iran urges Israel oil embargo, say sources - OPEC is not planning to hold an extraordinary meeting or take any immediate action after Iran's foreign minister called on members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to impose an oil embargo and other sanctions on Israel, four sources from the producer group told Reuters. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Wednesday called on OIC members to impose an oil embargo and other sanctions on Israel and expel all Israeli ambassadors. Four sources from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which produces a third of the world's oil and includes several Muslim countries including Iran, said that no immediate action or emergency meetings were planned by the group in light of Iran's comments. "We are not a political organisation," one of the sources said. On Tuesday, the Gulf Cooperation Council secretary-general when asked whether Arab countries should reduce oil production in retaliation for Israel's actions in Gaza, said that the GCC was committed to energy security and shouldn't use oil as a weapon. "The GCC works as a clear and honest partner as an oil exporter with the international community and we can't use that as a weapon in any way possible," Jasem al-Budaiwi said. In 1973, Arab producers led by Saudi Arabia slapped an oil embargo on Western supporters of Israel in its war with Egypt, targeting Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Britain and the United States. Oil prices spiked as a result but over the longer term the crisis led to the development of new oil provinces outside the Middle East like the North Sea and deepwater assets, and encouraged alternative energy. While Western countries were the main buyers of crude produced by the Arab countries at the time, nowadays Asia is the main buyer of OPEC's crude. "The geopolitical environment is different compared to 50 years ago," another OPEC source said about why an embargo won't be implemented.

The Oil Market Traded Lower on Monday as it Continued to Erase Previous Gains in Light of the Diplomatic Efforts Over the Weekend to Prevent the Gaza Conflict From Spreading -- The oil market traded lower on Monday as it continued to erase its previous gains in light of the diplomatic efforts over the weekend to prevent the Gaza conflict from spreading. The recent diplomatic developments helped ease tensions, bringing some hope of a de-escalation in the conflict after Hamas released two U.S. hostages held in Gaza on Friday. Aid convoys started to arrive in the Gaza Strip from Egypt over the weekend, while U.S. President Joe Biden had calls on Sunday with the leaders of Canada, France, Britain, Germany and Italy following his visit to Israel last week. The oil market continued to trend lower after posting a high of $88.29 on the opening on Sunday night. It extended its losses to over $2 as it sold off to a low of $85.35 in afternoon trading. The market later settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The December WTI contract settled down $2.59 at $85.49 and the December Brent contract settled down $2.33 at $89.83. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 6.11 cents at $3.0955 and the RB market settling down 4.51 cents at $2.3285. Citi said it expects a meaningful rebound in commodities assets under management for October towards $700 billion, on the back of Middle East geopolitics and position squaring across the petroleum complex and gold. Citi said short-term momentum model forecasts higher oil prices into the month-end with a neutral-bullish signal for ICE Brent in the next 5-10 days. Chevron Corp said it will buy Hess Corp in a $53-billion all-stock deal. CEO John Hess of Hess Corp, is expected to join Chevron's board of directors once the deal closes. Chevron Corp said it will no longer use put options to hedge the crude oil production it is acquiring from Hess Corp, once the deal is completed. In its most recent earnings report, the company had contracts in place that locked in $70/barrel for about 80,000 bpd of WTI production and $75/barrel for about 50,000 barrels of Brent production for the rest of the year. Global diesel imports into Europe so far this month were pegged at 3.76 million metric tons, down from 5.78 million tons last month. Meanwhile, LSEG tracking shows that gasoline exports from northwest Europe to the U.S. and West Africa are set to reach 986,000 metric tons so far this month, down from 1.27 million tons in September. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.9 million bpd of capacity in the week ending October 27th, increasing available refining capacity by 375,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 1.1 million bpd in the week ending November 3rd. Citgo Petroleum Corp reported that operating conditions at its 167,500 bpd Corpus Christi, Texas East plant have made flaring necessary on October 22nd. Delek reported that equipment malfunction resulted in flaring at its 73,000 bpd Big Spring, Texas refinery on October 22nd. The refiner is trying to minimize emissions while its attempts to restart the unit.

WTI Slides 2.5% as USD Gains on US GDP Surprise to Upside - While ULSD was the outlier, reversing higher in afternoon trading, oil futures declined on Thursday under pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar. Government data showed gross domestic product in the third quarter expanded at the fastest rate in over two years despite higher interest rates. U.S. economy grew at a neck-breaking 4.9% annualized rate during the third quarter, up from a 2.1% growth rate estimated for the April-June period and a tepid 0.9% expansion for the first three months of the year, according to data released Thursday morning by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The fresh GDP data reflects an economy that not only absorbed the Fed's aggressive rate-hiking campaign but managed to reaccelerate on the back of robust consumer spending and a solid labor market. What's notable is that the increase in consumer spending during the third quarter reflects some rotation in demand from services on the goods side of the economy, which should be supportive of manufacturing activity in the coming months. Supporting this view, U.S. durable goods orders spiked 4.7% in September -- more than double the 2% increase expected by economists. This week's inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed demand for distillate fuels, which correlates closely with economic activity, remained above 4 million barrels per day (bpd) for the second straight week through Oct. 20, some 5% above the five-year average. The Labor Department Thursday morning released high-frequency data showing unemployment claims remained in a 200,000 to 220,000 range for the eighth consecutive week through Oct. 21, although a stable labor market has yet to materialize in stronger gasoline consumption that continues to trail the five-year average. EIA data showed gasoline consumption in the most recent week averaged 8.8 million bpd, some 3% below the five-year average. On the geopolitical front, oil traders continued to monitor developments surrounding the war between Israel and Hamas triggered by the Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israeli citizens. On Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the military is preparing for a ground offensive into the Gaza Strip, increasing the risk of a wider regional conflict. Although vague on details, including the scope of the invasion, the comments from Netanyahu prompted some investors to re-price the potential for supply disruptions from the Middle East on Wednesday. At settlement, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures for December delivery declined to $83.21 bbl, down $2.18 on the session, and international crude benchmark Brent for December delivery on ICE retreated $2.20 to $87.93 bbl. NYMEX November ULSD futures advanced $0.0134 to $3.0439 gallon, while front-month RBOB futures fell back $0.0281 to $2.2561 gallon.

Oil Wobbles on Russian Oil Exports as US Inventory Falls - Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange flipped between modest gains and losses early Wednesday after preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute showed total U.S. oil and petroleum products supplies declined for the second straight week, while rising crude oil exports from Russian ports in the Baltic and Black seas prompted investors to question Moscow's adherence to a supply pact with Saudi Arabia. Russian crude oil exports rose to a three-month high of 3.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in the seven-day period ending Oct. 22, according to the tanker-tracking data compiled and assessed by Bloomberg. This lifted the less volatile four-week average figure to 3.5 million bpd, which is around 300,000 bpd above a 3.2-million-bpd target. Earlier this month, Russia said it would prolong a pledged reduction in crude oil exports through the end of 2023 and hinted it might opt for further extension into next year. Additionally, tougher sanctions' enforcement on international shipping companies that transport Russian crude above the $60 per barrel (bbl) price cap had some in the market speculate Russian crude flows would take a hit. So far, these concerns have not materialized, adding to the bearish sentiment in the oil market. Separately, API data released late Tuesday showed U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was drawn down 2.668 million bbl last week, missing an expected 10,000-bbl uptick. Supply at the Cushing, Oklahoma, tank farm, the NYMEX delivery point for West Texas Intermediate futures, rose 513,00 bbl. The report also detailed a 4.169-million-bbl draw in gasoline supply for last week, far more than calls for a 300,000-bbl decline, and a 2.313-million-bbl drop in distillate inventories, more than twice an expected 1.1 million-bbl-drawdown. Next, oil traders await the release of official inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, scheduled for 10:30 a.m. EDT. Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI futures for December delivery traded little changed near $83.80 bbl, while Brent December futures on ICE added $0.16 to $88.22 bbl. NYMEX November ULSD futures dropped $0.0294 to $3.0155 gallon, while front-month RBOB futures advanced $0.0148 to $2.2824 gallon. On the macroeconomic data front, U.S. Purchasing Managers Index for the month of October showed a surprise expansion in both manufacturing and service business activity after a stagnant output seen in August and September. Manufacturers and service providers alike reported improved activity levels as the downturn in demand moderated. In reaction to the data, the U.S. dollar rallied against a basket of foreign currencies to settle Tuesday's session at 106.080, as investors repriced the strength of the U.S. economy and a potential for more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in coming months. CME FedWatch Tool shows increased odds for a 0.25% hike in the federal funds rate at the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting in December.

Oil futures: Crude higher following US air strikes, Brent above $90/b -- Crude oil futures Friday were higher on concerns of a wider regional conflict in the Middle East after US forces conducted strikes on two facilities in eastern Syria used by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Front-month Dec23 ICE Brent futures were trading at $90.21/b (1740 GMT), compared to the day's high of $90.24/b and Thursday's settle of $87.93/b, while the more-liquid Jan23 contract was trading at $88.94/b. At the same time Dec23 NYMEX WTI was trading at $85.38/b versus Thursday's settle of $83.21/b. However, markets were still heading for small weekly losses after retreating earlier in the week. Last Friday, Dec23 Brent closed at $92.16/b, while Nov23 WTI settled at $88.08/b. Prices had initially consolidated at lower levels Friday but rebounded on confirmation that the US had launched strikes on two bases in eastern Syria, which it said are used by Iranian-backed groups. "The risk of the conflict spreading and causing oil supply disruption will likely continue contributing to risk premia for oil for the time being," BMI said in a note. US officials said the strikes were in response to a number of attacks against American personnel based in Iraq and Syria, which had been targeted in a slew of drone and missile strikes. Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said US and coalition forces have been attacked at least a dozen times in Iraq and four times in Syria. "We know that these groups are affiliated with Iran," Ryder said without elaborating. Ryder also confirmed that "approximately 900 troops have subsequently deployed or are in the process of deploying" to the region. On economic news, the ECB on Thursday left the key interest rates unchanged, following 10 consecutive rate increases. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that it was premature to talk about rate cuts and would not confirm rates had even peaked yet.

Saudi Arabia's GDP crosses $1trln mark for first time in 2022 – PwC -- Saudi Arabia’s GDP crossed the $1 trillion mark for the first time in 2022, fuelled by robust investment from the private and public sectors, non-oil revenue growth and continued diversification, PwC said in its inaugural “Saudi Economy Watch” report. The economic success has propelled Saudi Arabia to the 17th position in the global rankings, boasting the largest GDP size in 2022 and targeting 15th place by the year-end. The Kingdom can achieve $1.3 trillion in fiscal revenue by the end of 2028, the report said, citing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast. According to PwC, the Kingdom’s non-oil private sector grew 5.8% year-on-year (YoY) in Q2 2023, surging 13.9% compared to 2019. Conversely, growth in the non-oil government sector slowed to 3.8% YoY, while the oil sector contracted by 4.3% YoY due to production cuts. Non-oil revenues grew by two and a half times the baseline of $163 billion to $411 billion in 2022, with expectations of a further 11% increase this year, PwC said. The report reviewed the Kingdom’s ongoing performance across several economic targets at the midpoint towards achieving Vision 2030’s goals. Female workforce participation rose to 36% in Q1 2023, beating the 2030 target of 30%, supported by social liberalisation and Saudisation policies. This resulted in a boost to household incomes, which has been a critical factor in rising consumption and broader economic growth. Meanwhile, homeownership among Saudi nationals expanded from 47% to 67%, surpassing the US and France. These strong results can be attributed to a range of initiatives to boost the supply of affordable homes, including a tax on undeveloped urban land and improved access to finance. The report said that the 2030 target of 70% homeownership is now close to being achieved. Economic diversification initiatives are bearing fruit, thanks to the commitment of the public sector to major non-oil investments, the report said.

Israeli Official Vows to Wipe Iran 'Off the Face of the Earth' If Hezbollah Enters War - An Israeli official has vowed that Iran would be “wiped off the face of the earth” if Hezbollah opens up a northern front for Israel.Israel and Hezbollah have been trading fire along the Lebanon-Israel border since the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel. There have been dozens of casualties, mainly on the Lebanon side, but Hezbollah has not launched a major assault on Israel.Nir Barkat, Israel’s minister of economy, told The Mail on Sunday that if Hezbollah enters the war, Israel would not only “eliminate” the group but would also target Iran. “The plan of Iran is to attack Israel on all fronts. If we find they intend to target Israel, we will not just retaliate to those fronts, but we will go to the head of the snake, which is Iran,” he said.Barkat’s warning comes as an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza appears imminent. Israel is stepping up its airstrikes on the besieged enclave and has already killed over 4,000 Palestinians, including over 1,000 children. Barkat threatened Iran with a similar fate.“Lebanon and Hezbollah are going to pay a heavy price, similar to what Hamas is going to pay. But that’s not enough. The very clear message is that we are going to be going after the heads of Iran as well. When will we do that? When we decide,” Barkat said.“Israel has a very clear message to our enemies. We are saying to them, look what’s happening in Gaza – you are going to get the same treatment if you attack us. We are going to wipe you off the face of the Earth,” he added.Israel does not have the capabilities to sustain a bombing campaign in Iran without US support, and both Iran and Hezbollah have formidable militaries with advanced missiles. But Barkat’s threat is not hollow since Israel possesses a secret nuclear weapons stockpile, making it the only nuclear-armed nation in the Middle East.

Israel Again Bombs Syria's Damascus and Aleppo Airports - Israeli airstrikes simultaneously targeted Syria’s two main international airports in Damascus and Aleppo for the second time since the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel.The airstrikes took place early Sunday morning and put both airports out of service. Syria’s SANA news agency reported that one civilian worker was killed in the attack, and another was wounded.“At about 05:25 am on Sunday, the Israeli enemy simultaneously carried out an aerial act of aggression with waves of missiles from the direction of the Mediterranean Sea west of Lattakia and from the direction of the occupied Syrian Golan targeting Damascus and Aleppo international airports,” a military source told SANA.“The aggression led to the martyrdom of a civilian worker at Damascus Airport, the injury of another worker, in addition to causing material damage to the runways of the two airports, putting them out of service,” the source added.Israel previously targeted both airports on October 12. On October 14, Israeli airstrikes targeted the Aleppo airport but not Damascus. In all instances, the airports were temporarily knocked out of service. According to The Times of Israel, Syria told aviation authorities that the damage caused by the Sunday airstrikes would leave the airports out of service for at least two days.

Israeli Airstrikes Kill Eight Syrian Soldiers in Southern Syria - Israeli airstrikes targeted southern Syria early Wednesday morning, killing eight soldiers and wounding seven more, Syria’s SANA news agency reported.The strikes targeted the southern Deraa province and came after Israel said rockets were fired from Syria toward Israel. “At about 1:45 am on Wednesday, the Israeli enemy launched an aerial act of aggression from the direction of occupied Syrian Golan, targeting several military sites in Deraa countryside,” a military source told SANA.According to Al Jazeera, the Israeli military said its “fighter jets struck military infrastructure and mortars belonging to the Syrian army in response to the launches towards Israel yesterday [Tuesday].”It’s unclear if the Syrian military was involved in firing rockets into Israel. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Tuesday that fighters “loyal to Hezbollah” had “launched rockets towards the occupied Syrian Golan” from the Deraa province, likely referring to Shia militias that operate in Syria.Later on Wednesday, Israel launched more airstrikes in Syria in the north that hit the Aleppo airport. “Nearly at 1:25 pm on Wednesday, the Israeli enemy carried out an air aggression from the Mediterranean Sea, west of Lattakia, targeting Aleppo International Airport, causing material damage to the airport’s runway and it’s now out of service,” a military source toldSANA. Israel has been bombing Syria for years, and the country’s airports became common targets toward the end of 2022. The two separate airstrikes on Wednesday marked at least the 30th time Israeli warplanes bombed Syria this year.

’No one will be spared’: A guide to Middle East fallout from the Israel-Hamas war U.S. officials are worried that violence in Israel’s neighbors will spiral into a larger regional war. Missile strikes from Yemen. Israeli settler killings of Palestinians in the West Bank. Attacks on U.S. troops in Syria. And that’s before Israel officially launches a ground invasion of Gaza, the territory controlled by Hamas militants who killed more than 1,000 Israelis on Oct. 7. Biden administration officials are especially concerned that armed groups backed by Iran are preparing to exact more bloodshed. Aside from Hamas, those proxy forces include Lebanon and Iraq-based Hezbollah and the Houthis of Yemen. “We see a prospect for much more significant escalation against U.S. forces and personnel in the near term. And let’s be clear about it, the road leads back to Iran,” a senior Defense Department official told reporters Monday. The official was granted anonymity because the person was not authorized to speak on the record. Arab officials are worried, too. They are urging Washington to help defuse the tensions by using what leverage it has with Israel. Some say the United States should call for a cease-fire, but the Biden team is unwilling to do so, saying Israel has the right to respond to the Hamas attacks. It’s especially tough to contain the violence because the sparks are flying in many different places. If tensions don’t lower soon, “the whole region will be affected,” predicted one Arab diplomat, granted anonymity for the same reason. “No one will be spared.” Here are some of those potential flashpoints:

Israel Demands UN Chief Resign for Saying Hamas Attack Didn't Happen in a Vacuum - Israel’s ambassador to the UN has lashed out at UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for saying the Hamas attack on southern Israel “did not occur in a vacuum” and demanded his resignation.“It is important to also recognize the attacks by Hamas did not happen in a vacuum,” Guterres said at a UN Security Council meeting. “The Palestinian people have been subjected to 56 years of suffocating occupation. They have seen their land steadily devoured by settlements and plagued by violence, their economy stifled, their people displaced, and their homes demolished. Their hopes for a political solution to their plight have been vanishing.” He added that the history does not mean the Hamas attack was justified. “The grievances of the Palestinian people cannot justify the appalling attacks by Hamas. And those appalling attacks cannot justify the collective punishment of the Palestinian people,” he said.Israeli Ambassador Gilad Erdan called the comments “shocking” and called on Guterres to step down. “There is no justification or point in talking to those who show compassion for the most terrible atrocities committed against the citizens of Israel and the Jewish people. There are simply no words,” he said. Other Israeli officials criticized Guterres, including Benny Gantz, who is a minister in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet. Gantz called Guterres a “terrorist apologist” and said that “absolutely nothing can justify the slaughter of innocent civilians.” Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes continue to pound Gaza, where thousands of children have already been killed by the Israeli onslaught.

'Netanyahu Got All the Warnings,’ Says Former Israeli Military Intelligence Chief - Hamas’ massacre of more than 1,400 Israelis and kidnapping of over 200 others on Oct. 7 was more than a national tragedy for Israel — it was also a massive intelligence failure. Now, as Israel goes to war against Hamas, vital questions abound: Why didn’t Israeli leadership see this coming? If Israel defeats Hamas, what will take its place? And what are the odds that Israel’s greatest ally, the United States, could get pulled into a direct role in the conflict?Amos Yadlin has unique insights into all these questions. The 71-year-old former Israeli intelligence chief, who oversaw the destruction of Syria’s nascent nuclear program and the serial sabotage of Iran’s, has emerged as a key voice on the crisis, briefing members of Israel’s war cabinet. For nearly a decade following his term as intelligence chief, he served as head of Israel’s highly influential Institute for National Security Studies, and he remains a security eminence grise, now running the national-security consultancy Mind Israel.In a new interview with POLITICO Magazine conducted via Zoom over two days last week, Yadlin offered a useful window into official Israeli thinking on the escalating war — from solutions to the ongoing hostage crisis to the challenge of avoiding Palestinian civilian casualties.Yadlin made clear that Israel’s policy in this war was not simply to retaliate for the massacre or weaken Hamas, but to definitively end the jihadist group’s 16-year rule in Gaza.Retired Israeli general and Executive Director of Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies Amos Yadlin attends a session at the Manama Dialogue security conference in the Bahraini capital on Dec. 5, 2020. | Mazen Mahdi/AFP via Getty Images“We are going to destroy Hamas, as Nazi Germany was destroyed,” he said, adding that Israel would mount a global assassination campaign against Hamas leaders akin to the one it launched following the 1972 Munich Olympics massacre.Aligned politically with the country’s center left — he was the Labor Party’s candidate for defense minister in the 2015 elections — Yadlin attributed much of the blame for the catastrophe to the national distraction of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s push to overhaul the country’s judiciary: “Netanyahu got all the warnings — from his defense minister, from the chief of staff, from the head of intelligence, from the head of Shin Bet and from independent writers like me, like others — that this is weakening Israel deterrence and endangering Israeli national security.”Complicating matters in recent days, the Israeli media has been abuzz with reports of internal Israeli government deliberations over a second front with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, with the defense minister and other Israeli officials reportedly advocating a preemptive strike on the militant group and the U.S. cautioning against it.Yadlin said Hezbollah’s “very cautious” behavior indicated a low likelihood of a second front developing. But while declining to go into details, Yadlin — who is privy to recent discussions between U.S. and Israeli officials — hinted that, in the event Hezbollah were to initiate a full-blown war with Israel, the U.S. might join “shoulder to shoulder” with Israel: “If Hezbollah attacks first, don’t be surprised — the U.S. may participate in this war.”The following is a partial transcript of our conversation. It has been edited for concision and clarity. (Full disclosure: Yadlin is an advisory-board member of ROPES, an Arab-Israeli peace organization I founded.)

Israel to Consider Civilians 'Terrorist Accomplices' If They Stay in North Gaza - The Israeli military has told Palestinian civilians living in north Gaza that if they don’t evacuate to the south, they will be considered “an accomplice in a terrorist organization,”The warning was made in threatening leaflets dropped by Israeli drones on Saturday. “Urgent warning, to residents of Gaza. Your presence north of Wadi Gaza puts your life in danger. Whoever chooses not to leave north Gaza to the south of Wadi Gaza might be identified as an accomplice in a terrorist organization,” the leaflets said, according to Reuters.Israel previously ordered the evacuation of northern Gaza, an area that’s home to 1.1 million people. Since Gaza is under blockade, the only option for Palestinians in the north is to flee to the south, which is also under constant Israeli bombardment.Some Gazans have fled to the south, while others have refused to leave their homes or have sought shelter at hospitals, hoping they will not be targeted in the Israeli onslaught, but Israel is ordering hospitals to be evacuated. According to the Palestinian Red Crescent, Israel ordered the evacuation of Al-Quds hospital, which is housing more than 400 patients and 12,000 displaced civilians.Since Israel has unleashed its bombing campaign on Gaza in the wake of the October 7 Hamas attack, at least 4,651 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, including 1,756 children, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. On the Israeli side, at least 1,405 people have been killed.Gazans are also suffering from food and water shortages due to the Israeli siege. A limited number of aid trucks have been allowed to enter Gaza from Egypt, which included medical supplies but no fuel to power hospital generators. Aid agencies have said the aid that has been let in is just a “drop in the ocean” for Gaza’s 2.3 million residents.

Israel hits Gaza with one of deadliest nights of bombings so far in war against Hamas | Israel-Hamas war -- The blockaded Gaza Strip has been hit by one of the deadliest nights of Israeli bombing so far in the war against the Palestinian militant group Hamas, as two more hostages were freed amid reports that talks to secure the release of dozens of others were under way. At least 400 Palestinians were killed in Gaza in the last 24 hours, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, and 70 were killed overnight on Sunday in bombardments of the densely populated Jabalia refugee camp and streets close to two hospitals in Gaza City. Entire residential blocks across the strip have now been levelled, including in areas where Palestinians had been told by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) to seek refuge. Approximately half the strip’s housing stock, and much of the coastal exclave, is now covered in grey rubble dust. Late on Monday, Hamas said it had released two elderly Israeli women – Yokheved Lifshitz and Nurit Yitzhak, who also goes by the name Nurit Cooper – for humanitarian reasons in response to mediation by Qatar and Egypt. Meanwhile, Israeli outlets reported that the US and Qatar were trying to broker a deal in which 50 people held by Hamas and other groups in Gaza of foreign or dual nationality would be released. On Sunday it emerged the US had pressed Israel to delay its expected ground assault on Gaza to allow time for the release of more hostages believed to be held in the exclave, and the delivery of more aid to the besieged territory. The Maariv newspaper said the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his generals were at odds over when to launch an expected ground invasion. Quoting unnamed senior Israeli officials, the daily said the Israeli leader is delaying putting boots on the ground while there is still a possibility of returning the captives, and that the “initial phrase” of the Israeli offensive – airstrikes – is “not yet exhausted”.

Jordan’s queen says western world ‘complicit’ in Gaza casualties - Queen Rania of Jordan argued the western world is “complicit” in the casualties in Gaza, pointing to the seemingly widespread support of Israel in its fight against militant group Hamas following the group’s bloody attack against the Jewish State earlier this month. “This is the first time in modern history that there is such human suffering and the world is not even calling for a cease-fire,” Rania said in an interview with CNN. “So the silence is deafening and to many in our religion, it makes the western world complicit…through their support and through the cover that they give Israel that it’s just right to defend itself.” Calling the western world’s support of Israel a “glaring double standard,” Rania, who is of Palestinian descent herself, said many in the Arab world perceive the support as “aiding and abetting” the mass killings of civilians in Gaza. Rania’s criticism of the western world’s reaction comes amid Israel’s bombardment of Gaza in response to Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel earlier this month that killed over 1,400 people, including hundreds of civilians. Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas, which is recognized as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and several other countries, and has since launched hundreds of air strikes into Gaza and cut off the territory’s food, water, medicine and fuel supply. The United States has largely supported Israel’s pledge to eliminate Hamas, which controls Gaza, in response to the attacks, drawing a parallel to America’s war on terror after the 9/11 attacks. “The world immediately and unequivocally stood by Israel and its right to defend itself and condemned the attacks that happened,” Rania said. “But when we look, we’re seeing the last couple of weeks, we haven’t…we’re seeing silence in the world. Countries that are just expressing concern or acknowledging the causalities, but always with the preface of declaration of support for Israel.” Over 5,700 Palestinians in besieged Gaza have been killed in the conflict, including over 2,300 children, 1,200 women and 295 elderly people, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Over 16,200 are wounded as hospitals warn of collapse in the wake of low supplies, Gaza officials said Tuesday.

Oxfam: Israel Using Starvation as 'Weapon of War' Against Gaza Civilians - The international charity group Oxfam has said Israel is using starvation as a “weapon of war” against Palestinian civilians living in Gaza, as barely any food is being delivered to the besieged enclave.Gaza has been under blockade since 2007, and Israel imposed a “total siege” on October 9, cutting off all food, fuel, and medicine. A limited number of aid trucks have been allowed into Gaza from Egypt recently, but Oxfam said only 2% of the food that was previously delivered is going in.“The international agency analyzed UN data and found that just 2% of food that would have been delivered has entered Gaza since the total siege,” Oxfam said in a press release. “While a small amount of food aid has been allowed in, no commercial food imports have been delivered.”Oxfam said that prior to the total siege, 104 trucks a day delivered food to Gaza. Since the weekend, 62 trucks have been allowed to enter Gaza through Egypt, but only 30 were carrying food.“The situation is nothing short of horrific—where is humanity? Millions of civilians are being collectively punished in full view of the world. There can be no justification for using starvation as a weapon of war,” said Sally Abi Khalil, Oxfam’s Middle East director.Oxfam said Gaza is also virtually out of clean water, making some of the food that has been let in, such as rice and lentils, useless since people do not have clean water or fuel to prepare them. The group said Israeli airstrikes have hit bakeries and supermarkets, further straining the food supply. The electricity blackout and lack of fuel have also disrupted the supply of food.

Oxfam Accuses Israel of 'Using Starvation as Weapon of War' in Gaza --The humanitarian group Oxfam International on Wednesday accused Israel of "using starvation as a weapon of war" in the besieged Gaza Strip, where hunger and thirst are growing rapidly as just a trickle of aid has been allowed to enter the territory amid the Israeli military's relentless bombing campaign.Citing United Nations data, Oxfam said in a statement that just 2% of the food that would have been delivered to Gaza prior to Israel's latest assault has been able to enter the strip since October 9, when the Israeli government announced a total blockade of the strip. International law prohibits the use of starvation as a method of warfare.In recent days, Israel has allowed several truck convoys carrying food, drinking water, and medical supplies to reach southern Gaza through the Egyptian border, but U.N. officials said that's nowhere near enough to meet the growing needs of Gazans, more than a million of whom have been displaced by Israeli airstrikes."The aid which resumed from Egypt over the weekend is a mere drop in the ocean of what is needed," Jeremy Laurence, spokesperson for the office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, said Tuesday.Oxfam noted Wednesday that "despite 62 trucks of aid being allowed to enter southern Gaza via the Rafah crossing since the weekend, only 30 contained food and in some cases, not exclusively so.""This amounts to just one truck every three hours and 12 minutes since Saturday," the group said.Sally Abi Khalil, Oxfam's regional Middle East director, said in a statement that the situation in Gaza "is nothing short of horrific.""Where is humanity?" she asked. "Millions of civilians are being collectively punished in full view of the world, there can be no justification for using starvation as a weapon of war. World leaders cannot continue to sit back and watch, they have an obligation to act and to act now."The United Nations estimates that more than 1.6 million people in Gaza—roughly 70% of the enclave's population—are in dire need of humanitarian assistance. Brian Lander, deputy head of emergencies at the World Food Program, toldReuters earlier this week that around 465 trucks of aid per day are necessary to help desperate Gazans who haveresorted to drinking sewage-contaminated water and frequently skipping meals.

Massive Israeli Strikes Cut Internet in Gaza, IDF Begins Ground Operations - The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced an expansion of its ground operations into the Gaza Strip. Israeli air strikes on the besieged enclave have knocked out communications for the two million plus Palestinians living there.It appears Tel Aviv launched its anticipated ground invasion into Gaza on Friday as the Israeli Air Force pounded the region, causing a near communication blackout. “The Air Force is striking underground targets very significantly. Ground forces are expanding the ground activity this evening,” military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said in a press conference, reported Middle East Eye.The Jordanian Foreign Minister explained the ground operations would cause a humanitarian catastrophe. “Israel just launched a ground war on Gaza. The outcome will be a humanitarian catastrophe of epic proportions for years to come. Voting against [the] Arab [UN General Assembly] resolution means approving this senseless war, this senseless killing,” heposted on X. “Millions will be watching every vote. History will judge.”Jawwal, a Palestinian communications provider, issued a statement on X saying that the bombing had nearly completely disabled cell phone and internet settings in Gaza. “We regret to announce a complete interruption of all communications and Internet services with the Gaza Strip in light of the ongoing aggression,” the company said. “The intense bombing in the last hour caused the destruction of all remaining international routes linking Gaza to the outside world.”The Palestine Red Crescent Society reported in the Middle East Eye it had lost contact with its aid workers in Gaza. “We have completely lost contact with the operations room in the Gaza Strip and all our teams operating there due to the Israeli authorities cutting off all landline, cellular and internet communications.” The group’s statement continued, “We call on the international community to exert pressure on the Israeli authorities to provide immediate protection to innocent civilians, medical facilities and our teams.”Al-Jazeera notes it has inconsistent communications with some reporters in the besieged enclave. The Committee to Protect Journalists reports two dozen journalists have been killed by the Israeli bombing campaign.

The Humanitarian Case for Another Arab Oil Embargo - Anything less than threatening an oil embargo against Israel and its Western allies will likely fail to get the former to open up a humanitarian corridor, but this requires a degree of political will, trust, and coordination between the participating countries that can’t be taken for granted. . The pro-Israeli camp led by the US is against the formal involvement of any third parties in the latest war, hence the redeployment of their naval assets to the region in order to deter this scenario. The end result is that these refugees continue dying as “collateral damage” of the incessant strikes that Israel carries out on anti-terrorist pretexts, which infuriates the global masses and especially those in majority-Muslim countries, who feel powerless to stop the Gazans’ suffering. Without the creation of humanitarian corridors and amidst the spike in violence that’s expected to follow the onset of Israel’s planned ground operation, there’s a very real risk of riots breaking out across the world.Western countries could either brutally suppress them like they did those that occurred during the height of the pandemic or stand aside due to their elites’ self-interested political reasons like they did during the Antifa-BLM riots all across the US over summer 2020. In either case, their national stability wouldn’t seriously be threatened even if some extremists carry out terrorist attacks against those who participate in this unrest, but the same can’t be said for many majority-Muslim countries.These states could struggle to contain such riots since some of their security personnel might refuse to crack down on the participants if they sympathize with their pro-Palestinian cause, and even if they follow orders, the masses might riot more on the pretext that their governments are “Zionist puppets”. After all, their riots would have begun as protests in support of a noble cause, so it would be seen by the participants as a betrayal of the Palestinians, fellow Muslims, and humanity to violently disperse them.With a view towards averting that worst-case but nevertheless plausible scenario, it would therefore be a good idea for the pro-Palestinian and neutral camps to collaborate on ways to most compellingly pressure Egypt and/or Israel to open up humanitarian corridors. Since it’s unlikely that majority-Muslim countries will team up against one of their own, these efforts would thus almost certainly be directed against Israel and its Western allies, which could most effectively take the form of an oil embargo.Many Westerners already sympathize with the Palestinians’ plight so they could be counted on to pressure their governments to accede to these demands via large-scale protests across their bloc if majority-Muslim energy-exporting states and Russia give them an ultimatum. Their decisionmakers might still refuse to do their utmost in forcing Israel to host these refugees or the self-professed Jewish State might defy them in spite of their efforts, but it’s arguably the best way to advance this noble goal. Anything less than threatening an oil embargo against Israel and its Western allies will likely fail to get the former to open up a humanitarian corridor, but this requires a degree of political will, trust, and coordination between the participating countries that can’t be taken for granted. Seeing as how no indication has yet to emerge suggesting serious interest in this, it therefore remains speculative for now, but that could quickly change if public pressure becomes unbearable in many majority-Muslim countries.

Ukrainian forces on defensive as “counteroffensive” ends in failure, mass casualties -- As the Biden administration is backing the Israeli genocide of the Palestinians in Gaza and preparing for a much wider war in the Middle East, the Ukrainian government’s much publicized four-month-long “counteroffensive” has effectively ended with minimal gains in territory. Ukrainian forces are now on the defensive against advancing Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine. In recent weeks, fighting has centered on the city of Avdiivka, currently held by Ukraine and located north of the major city of Donetsk. Over 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are currently stationed in Avdiivka, a strategically important city due to its proximity to Donetsk. Over 31,000 civilians resided in the city prior to the war, while just 2,000 now remain. Control by Kiev grants Ukrainian forces the ability to hit the heavily populated Donetsk with artillery and potentially attempt to “retake” the city, which had been under Russian-backed separatist control following the NATO-backed coup of elected President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces previously warned of at least 15 or more daily Russian attacks on Avdiivka in their attempts to encircle the city but reported a weakening of attacks on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. However, Avdiivka’s military administration chief Vitaly Barbash acknowledged the precarious situation on the front, stating, “Shelling and small arms fire continue around the clock, so the situation remains very hot.” According to Barbash, “I can say for sure that this is the largest offensive that has ever been launched against Avdiivka since the war began in 2014.” Whatever the outcome of the battle for Avdiivka, it is clear that the Ukrainian military is now quickly moving its forces into defensive positions to prevent further Russian gains before winter. With billions spent and reported casualties of over 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers, even the New York Times was recently forced to acknowledge that the “counteroffensive” was a debacle, stating that while “Ukraine made small gains in the south, Russia took slightly more land overall, mostly in the northeast.” Amid severe manpower shortages, the potential loss of Avdiivka would further consolidate Russian control of the Donbas region and end even the most delusional hopes of the right-wing government of President Volodymyr Zelensky of ever retaking the territory it has lost since the start of the disastrous imperialist-backed war in February 2022. With the end of the counteroffensive now obvious, officials within the Zelensky government are attempting to cast blame for their own massive failures. In an interview last week with news outlet Ukrainska Pravda, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, admitted the counteroffensive was “out of schedule.” When pressed for details, Budanov stated, “There are objective and subjective reasons—everything is complex. But, sorry, most of the explanations for this are state secrets, and it’s just not for public discussion. Over time, all of this will become clear.” Presidential Adviser Mykhailo Podolyak responded to Budanov’s comments in an interview with Channel 24 by admitting the counteroffensive was over and blamed Western failures to provide even faster military aid. “If Ukraine had received weapons faster, we could have defended ourselves better and launched a counterattack. Only after all these events did the weapons finally arrive,” Podolyak said. “We are 6-9 months behind. Everything is very stretched in time. Budanov is right here. If we had received everything we needed in a month, it would be one story. But getting it in 8 months is a different story,” he stated.