Fed policymakers signal rate cuts ahead, but not recession (Reuters) - U.S. central bank policymakers pushed back on Monday against the notion that weaker-than-expected July jobs data means the economy is in recessionary freefall, but also warned that the Federal Reserve will need to cut rates to avoid such an outcome.Many of the latest job report's details leave "a little more room for confidence that we're slowing but not falling off a cliff," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said at an event in Hawaii."Our minds are quite open to adjusting the policy rate in coming meetings," she said. When and by how much will depend on incoming economic data, of which there is a lot before the Fed's next meeting in mid-September, she said, adding, "it's extremely important that we not let (the job market) slow so much that it tips itself into a downturn."U.S. stocks fell steeply on Monday amid fears the U.S. central bank has waited too long to begin cutting interest rates. Interest-rate futures contracts at the day's end reflected overwhelming bets that the Fed will start cutting borrowing costs next month with a bigger-than-usual 50-basis-point reduction to its policy rate.Speaking earlier on Monday, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee cautioned against taking too much of a signal from the global market sell-off, noting it stemmed in part from the Bank of Japan's decision last week to raise rates, as well as increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East."The law doesn't say anything about the stock market; it's about the employment and it's about price stability," Goolsbee said in an interview with CNBC, referring to the Fed's dual goals set by Congress, as he noted how prone financial markets were to volatility.Nonetheless, Fed policymakers need to be aware of the possibility that markets are signaling a change in the economy's direction, he said."If the market moves give us an indication over a long arc that we're looking at a deceleration of growth, then we should react to that," Goolsbee said. "As you see jobs numbers come in weaker than expected but not looking yet like recession, I do think you want to be forward-looking at where the economy is headed for (in) making the decisions."Fresh data on Monday showed that the vast U.S. services sector rebounded from a four-year low last month, with a measure of services employment rising for the first time since January.The U.S. services data "aligns with our view of an economy in transition rather than one on the brink of collapse," said Matthew Martin, a U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "Expectations for aggressive rate cuts in September are overdone."The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the current 5.25%-5.50% range last week and signaled it was on course to begin cutting rates in September, but that decision was followed by worrying signs the labor market might already have turned.The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased to an 11-month high while job gains markedly slowed in July and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%.The data cast doubt on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's assertion directly after the latest policy meeting that the labor market appeared to be normalizing gradually, which would allow the central bank to take a bit more time before cutting rates to ensure inflation was fully quelled.Instead, economists and traders honed in on Powell's other comments that the Fed would respond if there was an unexpected deterioration in the labor market.Asked about the possibility of an inter-meeting rate cut, Goolsbee said "everything is always on the table" from rate increases to cuts as the Fed maintains its focus on employment, inflation and financial stability."If the conditions collectively start coming in on the through line that there's deterioration on any of those parts, we're going to fix it," Goolsbee said. Inter-meeting cuts are typically reserved for emergencies, however, and so far neither Goolsbee nor Daly signaled that's what they are seeing.
Wall Street sees end of Fed's balance-sheet runoff this year -- The end of the Federal Reserve's balance-sheet unwind is in sight, though its actual conclusion depends on the pace of interest-rate cuts and stresses in funding markets. Many on Wall Street agree that an abrupt end to quantitative tightening, or QT, is unlikely, with policymakers signaling its rolloff of Treasury holdings will finish by year-end. But recent data suggesting an economic slowdown as well the risk of liquidity pressures — already evident in the financial system — call that outlook into question. "If the Fed is cutting to stimulate the economy, then QT will likely stop," Bank of America strategists wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. "If the Fed is cutting to normalize policy, then QT can continue." Mounting signs that economic growth is faltering more quickly than expected just weeks ago sparked a massive rally in global bonds on Monday as traders bet the Fed and fellow central banks would turn more aggressive in cutting rates. The global repricing was so sharp that at one point interest-rate swaps implied a 60% chance of an emergency rate cut by the Fed in the coming week — well before its next scheduled meeting in September. Current pricing suggests about 38 basis points of cuts for September. There's also concerns over liquidity in the financial system and how much more can the Fed's $7.2 trillion portfolio of assets shrink before worrisome cracks — similar to those seen five years ago ahead of an acute funding squeeze — start to appear. In the past, policymakers have discussed the possibility that they may not have to stop QT when they begin cutting interest rates, as lowering borrowing costs works in the opposite direction of the policy seen as tightening monetary policy. But an abrupt downturn in the economy threatens a smooth transition. While reserves currently at $3.37 trillion — the highest level in almost two months — are generally considered abundant, if the Fed lets the amount shrink too much it risks triggering volatility in overnight funding markets similar to what was seen in September 2019. The Fed, which has been unwinding its balance sheet since June 2022, recently slowed the pace in order to ease potential strains on money-market rates. Still, signs of pressures are surfacing in funding markets. Rates on overnight repurchase agreements — loans collateralized by government debt — are rising amid elevated US government issuance and primary dealer holdings of Treasuries near an all-time high. Meanwhile, balances at the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility or RRP, considered a measure of excess liquidity in the financial system, until Thursday dropped in every session this month to $287 billion, the lowest in more than three years. They ticked higher to $303 billion on Thursday. Even if funding pressures were to become more acute, backstops have been put in place to address potential strains, including sponsored repo, which provides relatively easy access to financing sources, and the Fed's Standing Repo Facility, which lets eligible institutions borrow cash in exchange for Treasury and agency debt at a rate in line with the top of the Fed's policy target range. Barclays Plc strategist Joseph Abate said repo rates are going to have to rise more before there's active use of the tool. "Two possible drivers could end the Fed's QT program early: a drying up of liquidity in money markets, or a recession in the US," Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter, Matthew Hornbach and Martin Tobias wrote. "We see neither of these outcomes as likely."
Political bluster threatens the Fed's 'vibes-based' independence - Once taken as a given, the Federal Reserve's independence is facing existential questions in the current political environment.Former president and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said in an interview last week that if elected he would "bring interest rates way down" while also combating inflation, which he said was "destroying our country." Trump has infamously toyed with the idea of exerting more direct control over the Federal Reserve before, and Fed chair Jerome Powell has said that the central bank's independence is of utmost importance to its functioning, and that fact is well appreciated by members of both parties in Congress. But the renewed incursions — however serious they may be — highlight the precarious nature of the central bank's independence from political interference. The Fed's insulation from outside political pressures is not guaranteed by a single, explicit document. Rather, it has evolved over time through various pieces of legislation, interagency understandings and the inertia of public and market expectations. But one part of this trusswork, a 70-year-old informal agreement between the central bank and the Treasury Department, is seen as a particularly weak link.Fed scholars consider the Fed-Treasury Accord of 1951 a touchstone moment in the agency's history, in which the central bank formally cleaved its monetary policymaking power from Treasury's fiscal activities. Some hold the agreement on par with the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 — the statute that created the agency — and the Banking Act of 1935, which crafted its distinct federated structure, in terms of institutional significance. "It's one of the real pillars of central bank independence in the United States, and one weird aspect of it is that it's an extremely informal document that doesn't have any force of law or anything like that behind it," said David Zaring, a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business. "The Treasury Department could sort of go back on it at any moment, though that might destabilize the financial markets in ways that the White House would quickly come to regret."Market participants and observers often praise the Fed's independence as a source of strength for the financial system and the country as a whole, keeping government borrowing costs low and prices relatively stable over the long-term. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has extolled the virtues of the Fed's "operational independence" several times in recent months amid chatter about potential changes that could be coming to the institution. "This arrangement allows monetary policy decisions to be insulated from short-term political influences," Powell noted in his monetary policy report to Congress last month. "There is broad support for the principles underlying independent monetary policy."Yet Trump's bluster and open contempt for the Fed's independence call into question the durability of that independence. While the common view is that the White House cannot direct the Fed's monetary moves, some see the Fed-Treasury Accord as proof that it can.Matt Stoller, director of research at the American Economic Liberties Project, said the arrangement is a testament to how monetary policy was conducted for much of the Fed's history — not just until 1951, but functionally until the late 1970s. He added that it also exemplifies the fragility of the Fed's independence."The Fed-Treasury Accord and Federal Reserve independence are just vibes-based," Stoller said. "There's no law when it comes to the Fed, in all honesty; they do what they want, and then they justify it afterwards. If they don't want to do it, they say they don't have the authority, but if they want to do it, they can find the authority."
Joe Biden adviser touts Fed independence as Donald Trump seeks influence -White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jared Bernstein is emphasizing the “importance of central bank independence” as former President Trump calls for more influence over the Federal Reserve.Bernstein shared a May analysis from the White House regarding the value of an independent Fed, saying, “History could not be clearer regarding the lasting & damaging inflationary consequences of ignoring this lesson or reversing the hard-earned progress of the past half century.”During a Thursday press conference, Trump said he believes “strongly” the “president should have at least [a] say” in the Federal Reserve. Comparatively, the White House said the Biden-Harris administration believes in the “importance of an independent central bank,” calling it a “critical component” of the ability to control inflation.In April, The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump’s allies drafted proposals that would attempt to carve out the Fed’s independence should he win in November.Trump argued that he believes he has better instincts than others because he was “very successful” and “made a lot of money.”Whoever wins the election, Trump or Vice President Harris, will have the ability to choose the next Fed chair.Although the chair and its board of governors members are nominated by the president and are confirmed by the Senate, they are independent and able to make policy decisions.Reuters reports some economists worry that if Trump is reelected, he could make moves similar to those of former President Nixon, who in 1972 pressured the Fed chair to maintain expansionary monetary policy despite the pressures of inflation.The White House noted the pressures from Nixon in its report.“A non-independent central bank can face political pressure to quickly goose the economy for political reasons, as when President Nixon pressured then Fed Chair Arthur Burns to engineer a favorable economy in time for the 1972 presidential election,” the report said. “But monetary policy takes a longer time to have its intended impact.”
US enacts full-court diplomatic press as fears grow of larger Middle East war --The Biden administration is carrying out a full-court, diplomatic press on its allies and partners in the Middle East to limit escalation in the likely attack by Iran and its proxies against Israel. President Biden and Vice President Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee for president, were set to meet Monday with national security officials in the White House Situation Room after Iran reiterated its intention to punish Israel for the apparent assassination of top Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. Biden on Monday spoke with Jordan’s King Abdullah II following Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s calls with the Qatari prime minister and Egyptian foreign minister. Blinken also over the weekend spoke with his counterparts of the Group of Seven nations and held separate calls with the foreign ministers of the United Kingdom and France and the Iraqi prime minister. “We don’t want to see Iran take further action, and that’s the message we are consistently delivering to our partners in the region,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said at the Monday briefing. “We’re at a critical moment for the region, and it’s important that all parties take steps over the coming days to refrain from escalation and calm tensions. Escalation is in no one’s interest.” In a show of diplomatic urgency, Jordan Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi made an extremely rare trip to Tehran on Sunday, seeking to influence Iran’s response. The Associated Press reported it was the first visit by a senior Jordanian official to Iran in more than 20 years. But it’s unclear whether the diplomacy will have an impact, said Gordon Gray, former ambassador to Tunisia and a more than three-decade State Department veteran who served in senior roles focused on the Middle East. “I give them credit for trying, if that’s what they did, but that’s not going to be a message that’s listened to,” he said. “I think there will be retaliation, I think that that’s inevitable. It’s a question of, if nothing else, of saving face or national honor. The question is the scope of that retaliation.”Even as the U.S. sought to cool tensions, the Pentagon dispatched significant resources to the region in anticipation of the attack.Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Friday ordered a fighter jet squadron, Navy ships and air defenses to the Middle East in an effort to “mitigate the possibility of regional escalation by Iran or Iran’s partners and proxies.”The Pentagon also said it would maintain a carrier strike group presence in the Middle East, move more ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers to the European and Middle East regions and ready additional land-based ballistic missile defenses for the area.The beefing up of military might in the region makes good on Biden’s promise last week to bolster Israel’s security, a vow made in a Thursday phone call to Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Biden “discussed efforts to support Israel’s defense against threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new defensive U.S. military deployments,” according to a readout of the call.The administration maintains that the U.S. priority is to prevent a wider war in the Middle East.“The United States also remains intently focused on de-escalating tensions in the region and pushing for a cease-fire as part of a hostage deal to bring the hostages home and end the war in Gaza,” Austin said Friday.U.S. Central Command head Gen. Michael Kurilla, the general in charge of American forces in the Middle East, is also in the region, the Pentagon confirmed Monday. Although the trip was planned ahead of the recent escalations, he is reportedly trying to help mobilize an international and regional coalition to defend Israel’s skies. The U.S. military last played a major role in directly defending Israel nearly four months ago, on April 13 and 14, when its forces helped shoot down hundreds of missiles and drones launched by Iran. The New York Times reported that Biden told Netanyahu Haniyeh’s assassination was “poorly timed.” An Israeli broadcaster went further, saying Biden told Netanyahu to “stop bulls‑‑‑ing me,” after the Israeli leader told the president that his country was moving forward with negotiations on a hostage deal. “We have the basis for a cease-fire. He should move on it, and they should move on it now,” Biden said Friday.
Israel-Hamas Hostage Deal Talks on Hold After Haniyeh Assassination - Hostage deal talks between Israel and Hamas are on hold following the Israeli assassination of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, The Times of Israel reported Monday.Haniyeh was the top Hamas official outside of Gaza, putting him in charge of the negotiations with Israel. He was a proponent of reaching a deal with Israel, and his assassination is seen as an effort by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ensure that won’t happen.Israeli officials told the Times that hostage deal talks would not restart until after Iran launches an attack on Israel as a reprisal for killing Haniyeh in Tehran. Hamas also needs to name a replacement for Haniyeh for talks to resume.The report said the US, Qatar, and Egypt understand that talks will become much more difficult in the wake of the killing of Haniyeh. The situation with Iran could also escalate into a full-blown regional war involving the US, which would make a hostage deal even less likely.In the weeks leading up to Haniyeh’s assassination, it was widely acknowledged that Netanyahu was sabotaging the chances of a hostage and ceasefire deal by making new demands after Hamas made concessions. Over the weekend, Haaretz reported that President Biden realized Netanyahu was lying to him about wanting a hostage deal. But the US has still not publicly criticized Netanyahu and is vowing to defend Israel from any Iranian reprisal attack.
US To Let Israel Restart Military Operations in Gaza After First Phase of Ceasefire Deal -The US is ready to guarantee that it would allow Israel to restart the genocidal war in Gaza after the first phase of any hostage and ceasefire deal that might be reached with Hamas, according to Israeli media reports.Hostage deal talks have been stalled since the Israeli killing of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, and it’s unclear when they will resume, but the US and Israel have been discussing potential proposals.According to The Times of Israel, a proposal that’s been discussed would involve three phases where Israel would halt its military operations and Hamas would release hostages. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants a guarantee that he’ll be able to restart military operations after the first phase, which is when negotiations will be held on implementing the next two phases.The US has not yet provided a written agreement that it would allow Israel to restart operations but has expressed its approval of the idea. Yedioth Ahronoth reported that the US wouldn’t give the guarantee in writing until an agreement is reached with Hamas.The Israeli condition could make Hamas less likely to agree to a deal since one of its main demands has been a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. During previous negotiations, Hamas had agreed to language that was vague enough that Israel could accept without actually committing to a permanent ceasefire. But it’s unclear if Hamas would agree to a deal where Israel gets an explicit guarantee from the US that it could restart military operations.In the weeks and months leading up to Haniyeh’s assassination, Netanyahu had been working to sabotage the chances of a deal. After Hamas made the concession that it wouldn’t seek a guarantee for a permanent ceasefire upfront, Netanyahu began making new public demands that Mossad Director David Barnea, the Israeli official in charge of the talks, said would thwart an agreement.
US Policy: Let Israel Escalate Against Iran, Then Tell Iran Not To Escalate Back --In an article titled “U.S. Warns Iran of ‘Serious Risk’ if It Conducts Major Attack on Israel,” The Wall Street Journal reports that officials within the Biden administration have been warning Iran not to “escalate” against Israel in its planned retaliatory strikes for the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran. “The United States has sent clear messaging to Iran that the risk of a major escalation if they do a significant retaliatory attack against Israel is extremely high,” an anonymous US official told The Wall Street Journal, adding that “there is a serious risk of consequences for Iran’s economy and the stability of its newly elected government if it goes down that path.”As we sit awaiting Iran’s planned reprisal attack and hope dearly that it doesn’t lead to a major new war in west Asia, one can’t help but read such reports and think it sure would’ve been nice of the Americans to issue these kinds of warnings to Israel against escalating before it went on its insanely escalatory assassination spree in the capital cities of Iran and Lebanon.You’ll never see western officials so enthusiastic about the idea of de-escalation as they are in those time periods when their side has just severely escalated tensions with an extreme act of aggression, but the other side has yet to retaliate. They remind you of a parent who lets their kid run around clobbering other children at the playground, then when another child goes to hit them back they rush in and start yelling about the need to play nice.They’ve been doing this song and dance for the last few days, ever since it became clear that Iran was going to retaliate for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was a guest on their territory. “Further attacks only raise the risk of dangerous outcomes that no one can predict and no one can fully control,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinkenproclaimed on Tuesday.“Further escalation in the Middle East is in no one’s interests,” tweeted UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy on Tuesday. “I spoke to Iran’s acting Foreign Minister, Ali Bagheri Kani, and cautioned that any Iranian attack would have devastating consequences for the region. Iran and all parties must urgently and immediately de-escalate.”Israel’s powerful western backers are happy to let it run rampant throughout the region without making any meaningful warnings against its criminal actions or imposing any consequences on it whatsoever. But as soon as it becomes clear that Israel has crossed a red line and is about to get hit, these western empire managers turn into a bunch of hippies who just want peace and love.When Iran does whatever it’s about to do, we may be certain that the western empire and its propagandists in the mass media are going to frame it as an unprovoked and outrageous act of aggression and start babbling about “defending” Israel against its “attackers”. Imperial history always begins right after Israel’s aggressions, and starts the clock as the retaliations for them emerge.That’s how the imperial spin machine operates: reversing victim and victimizer, aggressor and defender, claiming to always be acting in self-defense while existing in a continuous state of attack. When the inevitable blowback from these aggressions turns up, they stare with Bambi-eyed innocence and call it an unprovoked attack launched by deranged madmen with hatred in their hearts, and use it to justify even more mass military slaughter in the parts of the world where they already wanted to inflict it. Are you not tired of having your intelligence insulted like this? I know I am.
US Hints At Regime Change In Tehran If Israel Is Attacked -The US is preparing to play Air Force for Israel's skies as it deploys a dozen F-22 stealth raptor jets to the Middle East region. This change in 'force posture' was not debated in Congress (nor is it even really being debated on the mainstream networks), despite that clearly US service members could soon find themselves in the middle of a war between Iran and Israel.The White House has issued a fresh warning to Tehran on Thursday as it is said to still be gearing up for a strike on Israel in retaliation for the July 31st killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at a residence in Tehran. The new warning from Washington includes both negative economic consequences and threats of destabilizing actions directed against the newly elected government of Masoud Pezeshkian."The United States has sent clear messaging to Iran that the risk of a major escalation if they do a significant retaliatory attack against Israel is extremely high," a US admin official told The Wall Street Journal. The official further said that Tehran has been put on notice over "a serious risk of consequences for Iran’s economy and the stability of its newly elected government if it goes down that path." Is this a threat of regime change? To the ears of Iranian officials, it will sure sound like it given the country on its eastern border and the country on its western border were both regime-changed by Washington. Currently, the consensus among US national security officials is that Hezbollah is likely to play a much bigger and coordinated role in any potential Iranian ballistic missile and drone attack on Israel:Officials also don’t know for sure whether Hezbollah plans to attack at the same time in a coordinated offensive with Iran or separately. Hezbollah has a large arsenal of missiles that can reach Israel and the concern is that the group and Iran might attack at the same time to try to overwhelm Israel’s missile defenses. "Last time we got more of a heads up, and this time people are making their best guesses," said a third U.S. official. But while the US mainstream media narrative remains that it is exclusively Iran and its regional allies that are the regional 'aggressors' against Israel and the US, the fact remains that it is Israel which has attacked close Tehran ally Syria literally hundreds of times over the past years.
US Sending Aircraft Carrier, Fighter Jet Squadron To 'Defend Israel' - The US is sending more warships and additional fighter jets to the Middle East as part of a deployment that’s “entirely focused on defending Israel,”a White House official said Sunday.The Pentagon announced Friday that it’s sending the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt, which has been operating in the Middle East. The US is also sending additional US Navy cruisers and destroyers and bolstering its land-based missile defense systems in the region.A Pentagon official told Air & Space Forces Magazine that a US Air Force squadron of F-22 Raptor fighters jets is also headed to the region.The US and Israel are expecting a major attack from Iran and its allies in response to the Israeli killing of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran and a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut.White House Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer claimed the purpose of the new military deployments was to reduce tensions in the region even though US military support has only emboldened Israel to escalate.“The overall goal is to turn the temperature down in the region, deter and defend against those attacks and avoid regional conflict, which has been our goal really since October 7,” Finer told CBS News’s “Face the Nation.”While the Biden administration has claimed its goal has been to avoid a regional war, reports as far back as November 2023 said that the US believed Israel was trying to provoke a major conflict, and the US continued supplying Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with weapons and political support.The US pledge to defend Israel also makes it more likely that US assets in the region could be targeted in any reprisal attacks. Iran’s allies in Iraq and Syria could target US bases as a way to distract the US from any Iranian missiles fired toward Israel, or the Houthis in Yemen could ramp up attacks on US warships.
US generals tour Middle East to prepare military escalation against Iran after Haniyeh assassination - General Michael Kurilla, the head of the US Central Command, which controls US forces in the Middle East, arrived in the region this weekend to plan military operations after Israel’s targeted assassinations of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. After Israel’s brazen murder of Shukr in Lebanon and Haniyeh in Tehran, the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon and the Iranian government have pledged to retaliate by striking targets in Israel, and the entire region now stands on the brink of war. Washington and its NATO imperialist allies, having inflamed the region by backing Israel’s genocide in Gaza and its program of targeted assassinations, are continuing to ratchet up military pressure on Iran, Lebanon and the entire region. On Friday, the Pentagon deployed a fighter squadron and several cruisers and destroyers to the region to join two naval battle groups already in the region. Yesterday, US officials said General Kurilla would assemble a coalition of US forces and NATO and Middle East allies to block retaliation by Iran or Hezbollah. US and Israeli officials told Axios that Kurilla would use the trip to “try to mobilize the same international and regional coalition that defended Israel against an attack from Iran” after Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Syria this April, killing several top Iranian officers. Kurilla will be traveling to Jordan and to several Persian Gulf oil sheikdoms. In April, US, British and French forces, as well as regional US allies including Jordan, assisted the Israeli regime in shooting down the missiles Iran fired at targets in Israel. Though Iran warned US officials in advance of their strike plans and fired a relatively small salvo of largely older missiles, it nearly swamped the combined defenses of Israel and its imperialist and regional allies. Israel alone fired over $1 billion worth of missiles to shoot down Iranian targets. Warning that Iranian or Hezbollah strikes could come as soon as today, US officials said they “expect any Iranian retaliation to be from the same playbook as their April 13 attack on Israel—but potentially larger in scope—and it could also involve Hezbollah in Lebanon.” They are also “concerned it may be more difficult to mobilize the same international and regional coalition of countries that defended Israel from the previous Iranian attack because Haniyeh’s assassination is in the context of the Israel-Hamas war” and Israel’s genocide in Gaza. In NATO government and corporate circles, it is well understood that the Shukr and Haniyeh assassinations threaten to trigger a regional conflagration. Delta, United, the Lufthansa group and Aegean Airlines have suspended flights to Israel, while NATO countries, including France and Italy, have issued warnings to their citizens to avoid travel to the Middle East or return to their home countries if they are there. Amid its support for Israel’s genocide in Gaza and targeted assassinations, Washington’s claims that the escalation it is carrying out in the Middle East is “defensive” are flagrant political lies. “The overall goal is to turn the temperature down in the region, deter and defend against those attacks, and avoid regional conflict,” White House Deputy National Security Advisor Jonathan Finer told CBS News’ “Face the Nation” program yesterday. Finer said there had been a “very close call” with the Middle East almost going up in a regional conflagration in April. Now, he said, the United States and Israel are preparing for “every possibility.” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to stress “the importance of all parties taking steps to calm regional tensions, avoid further escalation, and advance stability,” according to the US State Department. European officials joined in this fraud, as French President Emmanuel Macron placed a telephone call to Jordanian King Abdullah II. The two heads of state “expressed their greatest concern over rising regional tensions and stressed the need to avoid regional military escalation at all costs,” the Elysée presidential palace stated in a communiqué. It called for “great restraints and the greatest responsibility to guarantee the security of the peoples,” claiming France would “contribute to de-escalation on the diplomatic level.” The reality is that the NATO imperialist powers, backing the Gaza genocide, play the central role in inflaming tensions in the region, constantly provoking Iran and its allies towards military action with potentially devastating consequences. Indeed, the leadership of the US Congress invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address a joint session shortly before the assassinations. It is difficult to believe that Israel could have undertaken such a killing, fraught with the potential for a devastating war with Iran, without consulting US authorities. Whatever the specifics of what US officials were told, their noisy, fascistic and degraded welcoming of Netanyahu amid the Gaza genocide amounted to a tacit endorsement of the Israeli government’s openly stated plans to murder every member of Hamas. As Netanyahu was in Washington, moreover, Macron personally declared he would support inviting Netanyahu to see the Paris Olympics.
Report: US Warns Iran of 'Serious Risk' If It Launches Major Attack on Israel - US officials have issued a threat to Iran, warning of serious consequences to the Iranian economy and the country’s new government if it launches a major reprisal attack on Israel for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran,The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday. “The United States has sent clear messaging to Iran that the risk of a major escalation if they do a significant retaliatory attack against Israel is extremely high,” a US official told the paper.The official said the US expressed “that there is a serious risk of consequences for Iran’s economy and the stability of its newly elected government if it goes down that path.”The warnings were given both directly and through intermediaries, the official said. Back in April, during the last major escalation in the region that was caused by the Israeli bombing of Iran’s consulate in Damascus, the US and Iran delivered messages to each other through Omani mediators.The US officials speaking to the Journal insisted the warning to Iran was not a threat that the US would carry out strikes in Iran but a warning about a “robust military response” from Israel. However, the US has pledged to intervene directly to protect Israel, as it did in April, and if the situation turns into a full-blown Iran-Israel war, the US would almost certainly be directly involved. The US officials said they don’t have a clear picture of when Iran will launch its reprisal attack or how extensive it will be. The US and Israel think it could be coordinated with Hezbollah and other Iranian allies in the region. On Wednesday, US officials told POLITICO that they thought Iran might be rethinking launching a multi-pronged attack on Israel due to US pressure.
Majority of Americans Oppose Using US Troops To Defend Israel - The majority of Americans oppose the idea of US troops being used to defend Israel if it comes under attack by Iran, according to a poll conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs that was released on Tuesday.The poll, conducted from June 21–July 1, 2024, found that 56% of Americans oppose US troops defending Israel, while 42% support the idea. Support for defending Israel is stronger among Republicans, with 53% in favor and only 32% of Democrats in favor.The survey also found that 55% of Americans oppose US troops defending Israel if it comes under attack by a neighboring country.The results come as the Biden administration is vowing to defend Israel from an expected Iranian reprisal attack for the killing of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. A major coordinated attack launched by Iran and its allies could result in American casualties, and the US support for Israel risks a major regional war.The US defended Israel from an Iranian attack in April, which came in response to the Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. The Biden administration intervened directly to protect Israel and is pledging to do so again without any authorization from Congress or any debate on the matter.The Chicago Council showed the lowest level of support for defending Israel among Americans since the Chicago Council began asking the question in 2010. In 2015, 2018, and 2021, the majority of Americans (53%) supported the idea.
Biden joins leaders in urging Gaza cease-fire, hostage release deal - President Biden on Thursday joined Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Qatari leader Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in urging Israel and Hamas to agree to a cease-fire and hostage-release deal that is on the table and increasingly close to the finish line. In a statement, the leaders said it was “time to bring immediate relief both to the long-suffering people of Gaza as well as the long-suffering hostages and their families.” “The time has come to conclude the cease-fire and hostages and detainees release deal,” the leaders said. “The three of us and our teams have worked tirelessly over many months to forge a framework agreement that is now on the table with only the details of implementation left to conclude.” “There is no further time to waste nor excuses from any party for further delay,” they added. “It is time to release the hostages, begin the cease-fire, and implement this agreement.” The leaders also pushed for a resumption of talks in Doha or Cairo beginning on Aug. 15, and said they were “prepared to present a final bridging proposal that resolves the remaining implementation issues in a manner that meets the expectations of all parties.” While the U.S. has for several weeks hinted that the talks are in their final stages, officials have admitted there are still key implementation details that need to be worked out. A senior U.S. administration official said Thursday that Biden had phone calls with al-Sisi and Sheikh Tamim this week about the hostage and cease-fire deal that framed the need for a joint statement. “A statement from three leaders is unusual, but it’s significant,” the official said. “These three leaders have been involved in this hostage negotiation, cease-fire agreement negotiation now for some months, and as the statement says, there’s a framework agreement that is on the table with really the details of implementation that are left to conclude.” While there is still some work to do and an agreement next week is not anticipated, the remaining details of the proposal are related to the “sequencing of the exchange” and can be bridged, the official added. “The bulk of the work has been done, and the deal is really there, and with some force of will and sitting down to hash it out, we think it is both possible [and] urgent,” the person added. The cease-fire and hostage-release deal is built on a proposal from Biden in May that would see the most vulnerable hostages exchanged for Palestinian prisoners and a temporary cease-fire, along with an Israeli withdrawal from densely populated areas of Gaza. A cease-fire would last so long as negotiations continue between both parties to reach an end to the war and release the remaining hostages. Hamas holds some 115 hostages in Gaza, where Israel is fighting to free them in a war that has killed more than 39,000 Palestinians. Israel also seeks the destruction of Hamas after the Palestinian militant group invaded southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing some 1,200 people and taking roughly 250 hostages. Some 105 hostages were freed in a brief November truce. The cease-fire and hostage-release deal recently hit a snag with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has sent in more demands that appear to be complicating the talks. Netanyahu has been accused of prolonging the war in Gaza for his own political survival as he faces questions at home about security failures on Oct. 7, along with domestic troubles. Still, he has faced mounting pressure from Israeli citizens and the families of the hostages to reach a deal. The negotiations are reaching a critical phase as tensions soar in the Middle East following the death of a top Hezbollah commander in Lebanon last week from an Israeli strike. Iran has also blamed Israel for killing top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
White House condemns Israeli finance minister's remarks on cease-fire --The Biden administration on Friday unleashed a torrent of criticism against Israel’s polarizing finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, after he referred to cease-fire negotiations with Hamas as a “dangerous trap.” White House national security communications adviser John Kirby said a lengthy statement posted by Smotrich to the social platform X made “ridiculous charges” regarding his opposition to a cease-fire deal to end the fighting in Gaza. “Some critics, like Mr. Smotrich, for example, have claimed that the hostage deal is a surrender to Hamas or that hostages should not be exchanged for prisoners. Mr. Smotrich essentially suggests that the war ought to go on indefinitely without pause and with the lives of the hostages of no real concern at all,” Kirby said. “His arguments are dead wrong; they’re misleading the Israeli public.” It’s rare for the White House to issue such direct criticism against a senior government official of an ally government — even as the the Biden administration has previously pointed out dangerous rhetoric and actions undertaken by Smotrich and the violent, far-right segment of Israeli society he inspires. When asked by a reporter what made the White House decide to put out such a forceful statement against an Israeli senior official, Kirby questioned Smotrich’s motivation. “I think a better question is, what made Mr. Smotrich decide, in the wake of the joint statement right now and the support that it’s been given, not only by other leaders but by Israel itself, what made him decide to put that statement, that outrageous and absurd statement, out, I think that’s a better question.” Kirby’s remarks underscore the Biden administration’s frustration with Israel as the president seeks to broker a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas, which the White House has described as nearing the finish line. Even as Hamas’s head in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, is viewed as a major obstacle to achieving a cease-fire deal, the administration has said significant concessions are required from Hamas and Israel. “This is on both sides,” Kirby said. The administration views the cease-fire deal as the best way to bring home hostages held by Hamas — it’s not clear how many of the 115 are still alive — scale up humanitarian aid to the besieged Gaza Strip and lower the temperature in the region amid fears of a wider war with Iran. President Biden, along with the Egyptian president and Amir of Qatar, issued a joint statement on Thursday calling on both Israel and Hamas to commit to resume negotiations for the cease-fire deal in either Doha or Cairo next week.The statement triggered a lengthy criticism from Smotrich, who warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to fall into a “dangerous trap” by signing onto the deal, rejecting the bargain of releasing Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails in exchange for the hostages; and described the cease-fire deal as a “surrender.”
Your Opposition To Israel's Crimes Makes A Difference -- In an article titled “Smotrich: Might be ‘justified and moral’ to cause 2 million Gazans to die of hunger, but world won’t let us,” The Times of Israel reports the following: “Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich implies he believes that blocking humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip is ‘justified and moral’ even if it causes 2 million civilians to die of hunger, adding however that the international community won’t allow this to happen. “‘We are bringing in aid because there is no choice,’ Smotrich says at a conference in Yad Binyamin hosted by the Israel Hayom outlet. ‘We can’t, in the current global reality, manage a war. Nobody will let us cause 2 million civilians to die of hunger even though it might be justified and moral until our hostages are returned.’” Liberal supporters of the state of Israel often talk about Israel’s Naziesque far right leaders like Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir like they’re some kind of fringe element in Israeli society, when really they’re both high-level officials in the Israeli government and play a crucial role in Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition. Just the other day it was announced that Netanyahu has appointed a new spokesman who openly supports the ethnic cleansing and colonization of the Gaza Strip; these freaks keep getting elevated to prominent positions within the Israeli power structure because of everything Israel is as a stateThe Smotrich article is doing the rounds on pro-Palestine social media today because of how psychopathic his comments are, and understandably so. It says so much that you can occupy high-level positions in the Israeli government while openly advocating the genocide of millions of people, even as Israel is on trial in the International Court of Justice for genocide. But what’s not getting enough attention is the grievance Smotrich is expressing here: that while he thinks it would be great to starve two million Palestinians to death, the rest of the world won’t allow Israel to do this. Smotrich is pretty much as evil as a human being can get, but in many ways he’s also one of the most honest people in the Israeli government. Is there any doubt that Israel would have gotten away with far worse genocidal atrocities these last ten months if its powerful western allies had allowed it to? And, while we’re on the subject, is there any doubt that Israel’s western allies would be consenting to far worse genocidal atrocities if not for fear of massive public backlash? It seems pretty clear to me that the pressure westerners have been putting on their own governments regarding Israel’s criminality in Gaza is the primary reason why the western empire couldn’t just sign off on a swift final solution to the Palestinian problem back in October, and has had to settle for this awkward slow-motion genocide disguised as self-defense instead. It’s not that the empire has a conscience, it’s that it is sufficiently afraid of sparking mass-scale unrest on its own turf to need to disguise its own psychopathy a bit. It is entirely likely that the only reason there are any Palestinians left in Gaza today is because normal people around the world have made their own governments fear the consequences of supporting Israel through a live-streamed full-scale holocaust. Our murderous governments have no conscience apart from the conscience of their own citizenry. So don’t let anyone tell you your opposition to this thing makes no difference. Even if all you’ve been able to do is pressure them to slow this nightmare down a bit and make them hide what they’re really doing from the light of day, it could wind up being enough to save millions of lives.
Arab Officials Say Gaza Ceasefire Deal Won't Happen Unless US Pressures Israel - A hostage and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas won’t happen unless the US puts pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,The Times of Israel reported on Wednesday.The report cited unnamed Arab officials from Egypt and Qatar, the countries that have been mediating the talks between Israel and Hamas. They said Netanyahu is the main obstacle to an agreement.One of the Arab officials said the US is the only party with enough leverage to get Netanyahu to agree to a deal since the US is Israel’s main weapons supplier. The official said the US could apply pressure by blaming Netanyahu publicly, but US officials have refused to do so even as it’s become clear the Israeli leader has been sabotaging the chances of a deal.After President Biden unveiled a ceasefire proposal that was on the table at the end of May, the US said Hamas was the only obstacle to an agreement being reached even as Netanyahu publicly rejected a permanent ceasefire, which was part of the second phase of the deal.Netanyahu’s comments made Hamas ask for a commitment to a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal up front. After Hamas conceded and agreed to vague enough language that wouldn’t commit Israel to a permanent ceasefire, Netanyahu added new demands, including indefinite Israeli control of the Gaza-Egypt border and a screening mechanism for Palestinians returning to north Gaza.Israeli officials, including Mossad Director David Barnea, who has been leading negotiations, said Netanyahu’s demands would thwart a deal. But US officials still refuse to name Netanyahu as an obstacle to talks even after he assassinated Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, which has put the negotiations on hold.White House National Security Advisor John Kirby said Wednesday that it was up to Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s leader in Gaza, who was named as Haniyeh’s replacement, to agree to a deal. “And as the chief decision-maker, [Sinwar] needs to decide now to take this deal, to get a ceasefire in place, to get some of those hostages home, and to get us all an opportunity to get more humanitarian assistance in. He needs to accept the deal,” Kirby said.When asked if Netanyahu was refusing to sign a deal, Kirby dodged the question. “I’ll say it again: There’s a proposal that is on the table. It’s a good proposal. It’ll get us a six-week ceasefire, or get us the most at — the most vulnerable hostages out,” he said.
US To Release $3.5 Billion in Military Assistance for Israel - The State Department is set to release $3.5 billion in Foreign Military Financing to Israel. The massive transfer of funds comes as the White House is asking Israel to investigate claims of rape in its detention centers for Palestinians. CNN reported speaking with multiple officials who confirmed the funds will be released. The money was allocated by Congress in the $95 billion foreign military aid bill that included $61 billion for Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel.Foreign Military Financing (FMF) is a State Department program that gives US taxpayer dollars to foreign governments to purchase weapons from American arms dealers. However, Tel Aviv is allowed to use some of the FMF funds on Israeli-made weapons.As the funds are used to contract with arms deals, the weapons are typically not delivered immediately.Israel is heavily dependent on the US to arm its military, giving Washington significant leverage over Tel Aviv. Over the ten-month Israeli onslaught in Gaza, the White House has resisted domestic pressure to condition arm sales to Israel.The release of funds will likely be viewed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a green light for Israel to continue its brutal treatment of the Palestinians.One point where the White House could have used the FMF funds as leverage is to push Israel to investigate the rape occurring in its detention facilities. Late last month, Israeli military police arrested several soldiers accused of using sodomy as a means of torture that left the victim bleeding and unable to walk.State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said the US wants Israel to investigate the allegations. “When there are alleged violations, the government of Israel needs to take steps to investigate those who are alleged to have committed abuses and, if appropriate, hold them accountable,” Miller stated at a press conference. He did not call for an independent investigation.At least some of the soldiers have been released. Several Israeli officials have protested the arrests of the perpetrators, arguing it is not a crime to rape Palestinians.Earlier this week, the Israeli human rights group B’Tselem published a report describing the Israeli detention facilities for Palestinians as “a network of torture camps.” The organizations said physical, psychological, and sexual abuse of Palestinian prisoners is routine.
US CENTCOM Confirms F-22 Raptors Land In Middle East For "Force Posturing" Against Iran --United States Central Command confirmed on X that an unspecified number of F-22 Raptor stealth fighter jets have arrived in its 'area of responsibility'—which includes over 4 million square miles and 21 countries in the Middle East, Central and South Asia, and Northeast Africa."U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptors arrived in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility Aug. 8 as part of U.S. force posture changes in the region to mitigate the possibility of regional escalation by Iran or its proxies," US CENTCOM said. U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptors arrived in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility Aug. 8 as part of U.S. force posture changes in the region to mitigate the possibility of regional escalation by Iran or its proxies.pic.twitter.com/BuuzbUHu9s— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) August 8, 2024We reported earlier that as many as 12 F-22s arrived in the Middle East today (see the reporting below)... Unconfirmed, but some X users that identified as "OSINT"—or open-source intelligence—pointed out some of stealth fighters landed at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Some geopolitical observers anticipate retaliation by Iran (or Iranian proxy groups), possibly including a direct assault on Israel. This suggests the Middle East is on the brink of a broader conflict that could escalate into a regional war. In recent days, the Biden administration has been working through diplomatic channels, utilizing its Middle East allies to convince Tehran to reconsider its retaliation strike against Israel. They've warned Tehran that a massive missile and drone strike on Israel could spark regional conflict, Politico said, citing two senior US officials earlier this week.
Moscow Rushes Air Defenses To Iran In Payback For America Arming Ukraine - Russia has significantly stepped up its military cooperation with Iran amid the Islamic Republic's showdown with Israel. Many days have passed since Israel's assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, with the region still on edge awaiting a likely major Iranian response.The NY Times and others confirmed this week that Russia has begun delivering radars and air defense equipment, possibly including S-400 anti-air missile components, to the Iranians. This can be seen as Moscow's 'payback' for America arming Ukraine. Now, Russia is arming America's (and Israel's) chief enemy in the Middle East.
US Airstrikes Pound Yemen as Region Is on Brink of Major War - US missile strikes continue to pound Yemen as the Middle East is on edge awaiting Iran’s response to the Israeli assassination of Hamas’s political chief in Tehran.The Yemeni news agency Saba reported two US-British strikes in the Taiz province, which is on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, the body of water that connected the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.So far, the US military hasn’t taken credit for airstrikes in Yemen on Tuesday, but US Central Command claimed that it downed one Houthi drone and two ballistic missiles over the Red Sea.On Monday, CENTCOM said that it destroyed one “unmanned aerial system” in a strike on Houthi-controlled Yemen, which is where most Yemenis live, and claimed that it destroyed several Houthi drones and one ballistic missile over the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. CENTCOM also said that it conducted strikes in Yemen on August 3The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have not backed down in the face of hundreds of US and British missile strikes, a bombing campaign that started in January. Instead, the Houthis have only escalated attacks on Israel-linked and other shipping in protest of Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza.The Houthis recently launched a drone that hit Tel Aviv, killing one Israeli, which Israel responded to with major strikes on the port of Hodeidah. It’s possible that the Houthis could take part in Iran’s reprisal attack on Israel, along with Hezbollah and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. Houthi involvement in the reprisal attack could involve attacking US warships in the region since they are standing by to defend Israel.The US has acknowledged that the Houthis would likely stop their attacks if there were a ceasefire in Gaza. But the Biden administration has refused to put real pressure on Israel to agree to a ceasefire and continues to provide military aid and political support, emboldening Israeli escalations in the region. The US-backed Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis from 2015-2022 involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became a more capable fighting force during that time. The war killed at least 377,000 people, with more than half dying of starvation and disease caused by the siege. A ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are now blocking the implementation of a lasting peace deal.
Syrian Arab Tribes Attack US-Backed Kurdish Forces in Deir Ezzor - On Wednesday, Arab tribesmen launched a major attack on the US-backed Kurdish SDF in eastern Syria’s Deir Ezzor province, and reports say US helicopters helped defend the Kurdish forces.According to Turkey’s Daily Sabah, the Arab tribes attacked seven villages, including Dhiban, which is only a few kilometers from the al-Omar oil field that houses SDF fighters and US troops.Local residents told Sputnik that at least three civilians were killed and seven more were injured during the fighting. The SDF and Arab tribes also suffered casualties, but the number is unclear.The operation was the most significant attack since heavy fighting between the Arab tribes and the SDF broke out in August 2023, which lasted several months.The SDF said in a statement: “In the late hours of yesterday evening and continuing into this morning, Syrian regime-backed mercenaries and groups of the so-called National Defense Forces launched a ground attack against areas on the eastern banks of the Euphrates River, east of Deir Ezzor.”Al Mayadeen reported that during the clashes, US helicopters used machine guns to target Arab tribesmen along the bank of the Euphrates River in Dhiban. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also reportedthat US aircraft used machine guns against the western bank of the Euphrates.In Deir Ezzor, the US and the SDF occupy areas to the east of the Euphrates, and the Syrian government controls the territory on the west side of the river. The US has about 900 US troops in Syria and reportedly reinforced its base at the al-Omar oil field during the clashes.The attack comes as the region is on edge and expecting an Iranian reprisal attack against Israel for the killing of Hamas’s political chief in Tehran. The US is vowing to defend Israel, and its bases in Syria could also come under attack if Iran’s operation is coordinated with its Shia allies in the region.
U.S. personnel injured in suspected rocket attack in Iraq --A suspected rocket attack on Monday has injured several U.S. personnel in Iraq, according to a defense spokesperson. The attack struck Al-Asad Airbase in western Iraq, the official said, adding they were “conducting a postattack damage assessment” and would share more information when it is available. It wasn’t immediately clear who was behind the attack, though Iranian-backed militants appear to have resumed threats against U.S. forces in Iraq in recent days. Last week, U.S. fighter jets struck Iranian-backed militants, with American officials saying the fighters were preparing for drone or rocket attacks. The flare-up in Iraq comes as the U.S. and Israel are bracing for an Iranian attack. Iran has blamed Israel for the assassination of top Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was in Tehran last week, and Iran’s supreme leader has vowed revenge. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack, though it rarely acknowledges covert operations in countries it is not at direct war with. Israeli forces last week also claimed responsibility for a strike against the top Hezbollah military leader, Fuad Shukr, who was the right-hand man to the Lebanese militant group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. The Iranian-backed Hezbollah has been firing daily at Israel over the border since the war in Gaza began nearly 10 months ago. But after the deaths of Haniyeh and Shukr, a larger retaliation from Hezbollah and Iran is spurring fears across the Middle East. The U.S. has moved the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the Middle East, along with additional ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers and a fighter squadron, to prepare for any Iranian and Hezbollah attack. U.S. forces battled Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq and Syria for months following the outbreak of Israel’s war against Hamas in October, but the death of three American troops at a base in Jordan prompted a massive strike on their positions in February. After the U.S. strike, attacks in Iraq and Syria on American bases stopped. If the Iranian proxies are behind the most recent strike on Al-Asad base, it’s not clear what has prompted them to strike again. Iran may be directing the militia groups to carry out more attacks, or the groups could be pushing back on their own after the death of Haniyeh and Shukr. Any renewed fighting in Iraq is likely to lead to pushback from Baghdad, which is looking to kick out U.S. troops and may do so at the conclusion of talks, potentially in the fall. Iraqi leaders have repeatedly criticized any strikes and battles in Iraq.
Five US Troops Injured in Rocket Attack on US Base in Iraq - At least five US personnel were injured in a rocket attack on the Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq, Reuters reported on Monday, citing US and Iraqi sources.The US officials said one of the Americans who was wounded had serious injuries and that the number of casualties could change as the damage is still being assessed. The Iraqi sources said two Katyusha rockets were fired at the base.The attack comes as the region is on edge and expecting an Iranian reprisal attack on Israel for the killing of Hamas’s political chief in Tehran. Iran’s allies, including the Shia militias in Iraq that have taken credit for previous rocket attacks on US bases, could be involved in the response.The US is vowing it will defend Israel from any Iranian reprisal, making it possible that US military assets are targeted in a coordinated response by Iran and its allies. There’s no sign yet that Iran’s reprisal has started, and the rocket attack on Ain al-Asad is likely a response to airstrikes the US launched in Iraq last week.On July 30, the US launched airstrikes in Iraq that killed four members of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of mainly Shia militias that are part of Iraq’s security forces. The strike on the PMF was strongly condemned by the Iraqi government, the US’s supposed partner in the country.The US bombed the PMF after rocket attacks targeted US bases in Iraq and Syria, which caused no damage or casualties.From October 2023 until February, US bases in Iraq and Syria came under hundreds of rocket and drone attacks. Iraqi Shia militias began the attacks in response to US support for the Israeli onslaught in Gaza.After three US troops were killed in an attack on Tower 22, a secretive base in Jordan on the Syrian border, Iran and the Iraqi government pressured the militias to stop, and there have only been a handful of attacks since February.
Iran targeting US elections using fake news, cyberattacks: Microsoft --Iran is using fake news and cyberattacks to target the 2024 election, according to a new report from Microsoft released Friday. “Over the past several months, we have seen the emergence of significant influence activity by Iranian actors,” Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) wrote. “Recent activity suggests the Iranian regime — along with the Kremlin — may be equally engaged in election 2024.” The report details the Iranian regime has posed as and impersonated “American extremists,” to sow division among the electorate and incite violence. “Looking forward, we expect Iranian actors will employ cyberattacks against institutions and candidates while simultaneously intensifying their efforts to amplify existing divisive issues within the US, like racial tensions, economic disparities, and gender-related issues,” MTAC said. MTAC outlined several covert news operations operated by the Iranian regime, including a site called Nio Thinker established in late October. The site originally posted about the war in Gaza, but has shifted its focus to the U.S. elections in recent months. Its contents are geared towards liberal audiences, according to MTAC’s assessment, and have written pieces insulting former President Trump. Another site focuses heavily on Republican issues, particularly on subjects of gender, posing as local newsroom and “trusted source for conservative news in the vibrant city of Savannah.” Alongside news operations, groups run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have launched cyberattacks against high-ranking U.S. officials. One such incident involving Mint Sandstorm, an operation from the IRGC’s intelligence unit, targeted a high-ranking official of a presidential campaign in June. The attackers sent a spear-phishing email using the compromised account of a former senior advisor, which would take the user to an Iranian-controlled domain before redirecting them to the correct website. Following the first attack, the same group attempted to log in to the account belonging to a “former presidential candidate” on June 13. “[T]his targeting is a reminder that senior policymakers should be cognizant of monitoring and following cybersecurity best practices even for legacy or archived infrastructure, as they can be ripe targets for threat actors seeking to collect intelligence, run cyber-enabled influence operations, or both,” the MTAC added.
US Ambassador Boycotts Nagasaki A-Bomb Ceremony Because Israel Is Not Invited - US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel will boycott Friday’s memorial service in Nagasaki commemorating the 79th anniversary of the US dropping a nuclear bomb on the city because Israel was not invited to attend.Emanuel said the ceremony had become “politicized” by the decision not to invite Israel, but Russia and Belarus will also be excluded for the third year in a row, a move supported by the US.Envoys from the US, the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and the European Union sent a letter to Nagasaki last month saying it would “become difficult for us to have high-level participation” if Israel wasn’t invited. The envoys said the decision would equate Israel with Russia and Belarus.Nagasaki Mayor Shiro Suzuki stuck to his decision not to invite Israel despite the pressure. He said it was due to concerns that Israeli attendance could lead to demonstrators disrupting the ceremony. “I will continue to persevere and ask for understanding of the decision as often as necessary,” Suzuki said.Suzuki said he made the decision “not for political reasons” but to ensure “a smooth ceremony in a peaceful and solemn environment.”Israel’s ambassador to Japan was invited to Hiroshima’s ceremony on Tuesday, which was attended by Emanuel and other Western ambassadors. The ambassadors of the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and the EU are expected to boycott the Nagasaki ceremony along with Emanuel, and the Western nations will send lower-level representatives instead.Israeli officials have pointed to the US and allied bombings of Japan and Germany during World War II to justify the mass slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza. President Biden said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pointed to the US atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which killed over 200,000 Japanese civilians, in conversations they had about Gaza.“It was pointed out to me that — by Bibi (Netanyahu) — that ‘Well, you carpet-bombed Germany. You dropped the atom bomb. A lot of civilians died,'” Biden said in December 2023.
US Gives Ukraine $3.9 Billion in 'Direct Budgetary Aid' - Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Monday that Ukraine had received $3.9 billion from the US in the form of “direct budgetary aid,” which is disbursed directly to the Ukrainian government through the World Bank.The aid is m eant to fund government services, salaries, pensions, social assistance programs, and other types of spending. It has also been used tosubsidize Ukrainian small businesses and farmers.The US has provided tens of billions of dollars in direct budgetary aid to the Ukrainian government since Russia launched its invasion in February 2022. Shmyhal said that the $3.9 billion was the first package of budget assistance Ukraine received this year.“This is the first tranche of direct budget support from the United States in 2024. In total, Ukraine will receive $7.8 billion in direct budgetary assistance from the United States this year, which will allow us to confidently pass this financial period,” Shmyhal wrote on Telegram.The funds are being pulled from the $95 billion foreign military aid bill that President Biden signed into law in April. The legislation included $61 billion for the proxy war in Ukraine, including $7.9 billion for budgetary aid.The $7.9 billion was included as a loan instead of a grant, an idea House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) got from former President Trump. But the bill gives the president the power to forgive the loan, or it could be paid back using frozen Russian assets.
Pentagon Says It Supports Ukraine Using US Weapons in Russia's Kursk Oblast - The Pentagon said on Thursday that Ukraine is allowed to use US weapons in its offensive in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, which began on Tuesday.Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh was asked if Ukraine’s use of US-provided weapons in Kursk was “consistent” with US policy. “It is consistent with our policy,” she said.Singh framed the attack on Kursk as a defensive operation against Russian attacks from across the border, saying the US has “supported Ukraine from the beginning to defend themselves against attacks that are coming across the border.”For the first two years of the war, the US prohibited Ukraine from striking Russian territory with US-provided missiles but recently lifted that restriction in the wake of Russia’s offensive in Kharkiv. The administration claims it won’t support “long-range” strikes into Russian territory, but it’s not clear what the limit is.“I’m not going to put a specific range on it,” Singh said when pressed about the possibility of the US supporting an attack on Moscow. She added that the purpose of allowing Ukraine to use US weapons in Russia was for “cross-fire” purposes.According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Ukrainian forces have used US-provided Bradley Fighting Vehicles in the incursion into Kursk. The sanctioned use of US armored vehicles in a ground operation into Russian territory marks a significant escalation in the proxy war and risks a major Russian response.Last year, pro-Kyiv militias, including the neo-Nazi Russian Volunteer Corps, used US armored vehicles in raids into Russia’s Belgorod Oblast. At the time, the US said it was opposed to its equipment being used for such an attack.The Russian Defense Ministry said Wednesday that 1,000 Ukrainian fighters with dozens of armored vehicles entered Kursk. The ministry said it thwarted any breakthrough, but heavy fighting continued on Thursday.
Pentagon Refuses To Rule Out Strikes On Moscow In Shocking Exchange On Ukraine's Incursion Into Kursk -The Pentagon on Thursday was asked by a reporter during the daily briefing whether Ukraine forces' use of American weapons in its ongoing Kursk incursion is "consistent" with US policy of what Ukraine can and cannot do with US weapons. It has become clear that Ukrainian troops are currently using American weapons to attack Russian territory, troops, civilians, and infrastructure.Spokeswoman Sabrina Singh answered without hesitation that "yes it is consistent with our policy" and explained that Washington has supported the need for "crossfire" from Ukraine back across the border onto Russian positions from which it is being attacked, even if that is on Russian territory. She framed what is happening in Russia's Kursk oblast—an offensive which has entered day four—as 'defensive' in nature.Singh still tried to point out that it remains US policy for Ukraine to avoid striking deep into Russian territory using American arms; however,when pressed about the scenario of a direct attack on Moscow, she simply said: "I’m not going to put a specific range on it" and thus refused to rule it out. But she did caveat that "we still don't support long-range attacks into Russia." Singh additionally explained, "I'm not gonna draw a circular map for you here of where they can and cannot strike." The Kremlin is likely to remain unconvinced when hearing this clear escalation in rhetoric from the Pentagon where attacking the Russian capital is discussed, even if theoretically. Watch the full exchange related to the Kursk offensive below:Needless to say we have entered incredibly dangerous times in this major proxy war when the Pentagon's daily press briefing is openly talking about strikes on Moscow.The Ukrainian cross-border offensive, which may have involved up to 1,000 men, began early Tuesday morning and was led by fast moving armored vehicles, which were able to penetrate up to 10km into Ukraine. Moscow says that it has observed US-supplied equipment being utilized in the attack on Russian soil.A prior Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) statement said, "Video monitoring data shows that Lancet loitering munitions destroyed a US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, a Kazak armored vehicle, a Ukrainian armored personnel carrier and an infantry fighting vehicle in their firing positions." Newsweek also confirmed based on video evidence. The MoD further said that dozens of armored vehicles breached the border and were operating inside Russia amid a major response to push out the invaders which has included airpower.As of Friday, the fighting in Kursk is in its fourth day, which is unprecedented for a Ukrainian military incursion inside Russia. Ukraine has simultaneously stepped up its cross-border drone attacks, reportedly hitting an important military airfield in the Lepetsk region, impacting a facility where glide-bombs are stored. According to the latest:
Ex-Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway registers as lobbyist for Ukrainian oligarch -- Former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway has registered to lobby on behalf of a Ukrainian oligarch, according to a new foreign agent disclosure filing. Conway registered Friday to represent Ukrainian billionaire Victor Pinchuk’s foundation as a lobbyist, according to a filing uploaded by the Justice Department under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. The filing suggests that she will try to engage with U.S. lawmakers and experts about Ukraine’s interests and will raise awareness about “Ukrainians’ fight for freedom and the Russian illegal war of aggression.”She will also try to make “best efforts” to persuade U.S. lawmakers to attend the annual meeting of Yalta European Strategy in Kyiv Sept.13-14, according to the filing. Conway registered to represent the U.K. office of the Victor Pinchuk Foundation, according to the filing. The filing described the foundation as “a registered, private, nonpartisan, philanthropic company limited by guarantee in the United Kingdom primarily focused on advancing artistic, scientific, charitable, benevolent, and philanthropic purposes in Ukraine or related to Ukraine.” The filing noted that Victor Pinchuk “owns and controls” the foundation and that the Ukrainian government does not control or own it. It said the Ukrainian government is the “principal beneficiary of the registrant’s activities directed by the foreign principal.”The filing included an agreement between Conway and the foundation, stating that she will be paid a monthly fee of $50,000. The term of the agreement began on July 25 and will end Nov. 14, according to the document.The latest move by Conway, who was one of former President Trump’s top campaign aides in 2016, to represent Pinchuk’s foundation comes as many Republicans are still hesitant to approve more aid to Ukraine. Trump has previously suggested that additional aid to Ukraine could come as a loan and has repeatedly claimed he could end the war in 24 hours if he were in the White House.Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), led the opposition to the Ukrainian aid package,prompting some concerns from Republican senators who support Ukraine in its fight against Russia. In 2015, Trump’s charitable foundation received $150,000 from the Victor Pinchuk Foundation in exchange for a 2015 speech he gave through a video at Pinchuk’s annual conference later that year. The New York Times reported that the donation was under scrutiny by the special counsel investigating ties between Trump’s team and Russia.
FBI Raids Home of Former UN Weapons Inspector Scott Ritter - On Wednesday, the FBI raided the home of Scott Ritter, a former UN weapons inspector and outspoken critic of the NATO proxy war in Ukraine and Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza.Ritter told reporters outside of his New York home that the raid was related to a suspected violation of the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), a law that requires individuals or entities engaging in lobbying or other activity on behalf of a foreign country to register as foreign agents with the US Department of Justice.“The search warrant is related to concerns apparently the US government has about violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act. I will tell you right now I am not in violation of the Foreign Agents Registration Act … and hopefully, by executing the search warrant and taking the information that they did, they will rapidly reach that conclusion,” Ritter said.FARA has been used to target people for their political views and is selectively enforced. For example, the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC, which spends millions on pro-Israel candidates and openly boasts about swaying US elections, is not registered as a foreign agent.Ritter, a former US Marines Corps intelligence officer, said there was “no doubt” he was being targeted for his political views and said the raid would have a “chilling effect on free speech.” He said the warrant allowed the FBI agents to look for “electronic equipment” and said they were “clearly interested in communications that I had with people related to the work I do.”Ritter recently had his passport seized by Customs and Border Patrol officers when he was boarding a plane from New York to Istanbul while traveling to Russia for the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. According to Ritter, the officers said they were seizing his passport on orders from the State Department.
Washington Further Escalates Its War On Dissent -- by Caitlin Johnstone -- The last few days have seen the US ramping up its war on domestic political dissent in multiple ways, with US lawmakers petitioning the Biden administration to crack down on anti-genocide protesters it suspects of foreign influence, and a journalist critical of US foreign policy coming under the crosshairs of Washington’s increasingly weaponized Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA).The FBI has raided the home of former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter, a vocal critic of US foreign policy toward Russia. Consortium News reports:“Federal agents removed Ritter’s electronic equipment and numerous boxes of paper files from his Albany, N.Y. area home Thursday on suspicion that the former U.N. weapons inspector is violating the U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act.“In a video posted to his Substack page, Ritter said that normally in alleged FARA violation cases the authorities send a letter to the subject of the inquiry informing them of the investigation. They do not send numerous F.B.I. agents to the door with a warrant to search and remove potential evidence.“The warrant, a copy of which Ritter posted, only called for electronic devices to be removed, but the agents, whom Ritter said acted professionally, also removed boxes of paper United Nations files from his days as a U.N. weapons inspector in Iraq in the 1990s. As Ritter says in the video, U.N. documents are never classified and could have nothing to do with the alleged FARA case against him.“‘So the idea that, this is normal procedure is absurd in the extreme. I’m not a foreign agent. What I am is a journalist. And this is how we need to couch this entire thing. What the F.B.I. did yesterday, what the United States government did yesterday, was a frontal assault not only on free speech, but a free press,’ Ritter said in the video.”The US has been getting increasingly aggressive in using FARA to suppress political speech that is critical of US foreign policy, with dissident voices being increasingly targeted by the Department of Justice on accusation of circulating unauthorized ideas in collaboration with governments like China and Russia. This coincides with a report from Ken Klippenstein about a letter sent to the White House by 22 members of Congress demanding that protesters against the US-backed genocide in Gaza be investigated for any unauthorized affiliation with foreign governments, and severely penalized if any ties are found to “the Iranian regime”.Klippenstein writes:“Last Thursday, 22 members of Congress sent a letter to the Biden administration demanding the investigation and criminal prosecution as well as financial ruin of Gaza war protesters, whom they claim have received funding from Iran. ‘We write today regarding recent revelations that certain anti-Israel organizations in the United States have received funding from the Iranian regime,’ the letter begins. The revelation originated in a recent statement by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, on top of statements by FBI director Christopher Wray and Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco that Iran is trying to influence public opinion.“The letter goes on to call for the Justice Department ‘to criminally prosecute and pursue civil forfeiture actions against any individual or entity that violates the law by receiving funding from the Iranian regime.’ It ends by urging ‘the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and Treasury to make public all available information, without compromising sources and methods, regarding Iran’s funding of these pro-Hamas organizations so that the American people can see who these groups truly are.’”Klippenstein notes that the letter demands a list of individuals and organizations that have received direct or indirect support from Iran or any of its “affiliates”, copies of banking information on “anti-Israel groups” believed to have received sanctioned funding, and information regarding what “severe monetary penalties” will be imposed on those found to be in violation.The US empire has been doing everything it can to restrict the flow of inconvenient information as public opposition to its criminality swells at home and abroad. Propaganda, censorship, the war on the press, banning TikTok, consolidating the collaboration of Silicon Valley with US government agencies, police crackdowns on campus demonstrators, and quashing political dissent are all outward manifestations of the agenda to manipulate the way the public thinks about what’s happening in the world. The leaders of the US-centralized empire understand that real power lies in the ability to control not just what happens in the world but what people think about what happens, because doing so allows them to act however they want to act without the risk of revolution. Our task as ordinary members of the public is to weaken their control of the dominant narratives in our civilization, and wake the public up to the truth of what’s really happening under the rule of this tyrannical power structure.
US Completes Withdrawal From Last Base in Niger - The US military announced Monday that its forces have completed a withdrawal from Air Base 201 in Niger well ahead of a September 15 deadline for US forces to exit the country.“The US Department of Defense and the Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of Niger announce that the withdrawal of US forces and assets from Air Base 201 in Agadez is complete,” the Pentagon and Niger’s Defense Ministry said in a joint statement. “The effective cooperation and communication between the US and Nigerien armed forces ensured that this turnover was finished ahead of schedule and without complications,” the statement added. According to The New York Times, a small number of US troops remain at the US Embassy in Niger that will be leaving once they finish administrative duties. The US began withdrawing approximately 1,000 military personnel from Niger in June and finished pulling troops out of its other base in the country, Air Base 101, in July. Air Base 201 served as a major drone hub for the US in the Sahel region and cost the US over $100 million to build. The US is looking to establish a similar base elsewhere in Africa and is reportedly in talks about the possibility with Benin, Ivory Coast, and Ghana, but there’s no sign that a deal has been reached.The US stopped cooperating with Niger’s military following the July 2023 coup that ousted former president Mohamed Bazoum. The US was looking to stay in the country but was asked to leave following a meeting with the military-led government, known as the known as the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP), back in March. Nigerien Prime Minister Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine said the US was asked to leave due to threats made by US officials in the meeting about Niger’s relationship with Russia and Iran.
US Eyes Remote Australian Islands for New Military Base - - The US is eyeing remote Australian islands as a potential location for a new military base as part of its buildup against China in the region.According to Defense One, the US Navy recently published a construction tender that says the Cocos Islands, which are located over 1,300 miles to the west of Australia’s mainland, can house infrastructure that can improve the US military posture in the Indo-Pacific.The US Navy also listed the Philippines, Timor-Leste, and Papua New Guinea for anticipated construction projects under the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, the formal name for the US military buildup in the region. The news of the US plans to start construction on the Cocos Islands came as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinkenhosted their Australian counterparts for talks in Annapolis, Maryland. After the meeting, Austin said the US would be increasing deployments to Australia and sending more bombers.“We’re … increasing the presence of rotational US forces in Australia,” Austin said. “All this will mean more maritime patrol aircraft and reconnaissance aircraft operating from bases across northern Australia. It will also mean more frequent rotational bomber deployments.”Australia’s ABC News reported in 2022 that the US was starting the construction of new facilities at the Tindal air base, which is south of the northern city of Darwin, for the purpose of storing six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers. The construction will cost about $100 million and is expected to be completed by 2026.The US is expanding its bases in the region explicitly in the name of preparing for a future war with China. Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, the former head of US Pacific Air Forces who is now the commander of Air Combat Command, said last year that the purpose of the expansion in the region was to give China more targets it would need to hit.“Obviously, we would like to disperse in as many places as we can to make the targeting problem for the Chinese as difficult as possible,” Wilsbach said. “A lot of those runways where we would operate from are in the Pacific Island nations.”
VA budget shortfall could deepen 2025 funding headaches - A $12 billion shortfall facing the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) could further complicate an already heated partisan debate over how to fund the government for 2025. There is already a gap between the spending levels in funding bills House Republicans crafted and where Democrats say spending should be, factoring in a side deal struck between GOP leadership and the White House last year. And lawmakers signal the VA budget shortfall just adds to the headaches. “How this all gets resolved is super complicated,” said Zach Moller, a former Senate Democratic budget aide who is now director of the economic program at the centrist think tank Third Way. “Does this $12 billion come from other things in VA?” The VA asked Congress last month to provide about $3 billion in funding for mandatory benefits for the fiscal year ending in September, as well as roughly $12 billion in additional funding for fiscal 2025 for medical care. There is some bipartisan momentum in Congress to address the more immediate ask, as officials warn millions of veterans’ benefits are at risk in the coming weeks. If the VA doesn’t receive that funding by Sept. 20, it says veterans’ compensation and pension benefit payments, as well as their readjustment benefits, could be delayed in October. “Literally, checks won’t go out unless we fix this in September,” Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), the top Republican on the subcommittee that crafts the annual VA funding bill, told The Hill, adding that members on both sides see the problem as “something that is going to get done — that needs to get done.” An effort to fast-track a fix for the $3 billion shortfall was blocked before Congress left town last week, as some Republicans raised scrutiny over the management of funds at the VA. And both sides are already digging in their heels on discretionary funding for fiscal 2025. The Fiscal Responsibility Act, the law that resulted from the deal struck by President Biden and then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) last year, sets a funding cap of about $711 billion for nondefense programs for fiscal 2025. House Republicans wrote their spending bills at that level, but Democrats say that undercuts a bipartisan handshake deal to allocate around $60 billion in further funding for nondefense programs.
Cartel Drones Fly With Explosives Near Southern Border - Vice President Kamala Harris' role as President Biden's "border czar" has sparked the worst border crisis in American history, a fact well known by now. However, a new report highlights a concerning new threat stream: drug cartels on the southern border are increasingly weaponizing drones with explosives, similar to what's being seen on modern battlefields in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. All of this is happening under VP Harris' watch. Here's the report from the New York Post: Cartel drones packed with explosives are flying just south of Arizona's border with Mexico, The Post has learned, alarming Senate defense hawks who are pushing for legislation to counter novel aerial incursions into the US.Members of Los Salazar, a cell of the notorious Sinaloa Cartel in Mexico, are using drones "to drop explosives" on Los Pelones, an independent rival cartel, as part of ongoing conflict in Sonoyta, Mexico, according to an internal bulletin circulated by the US Border Patrol's Yuma Sector Intelligence Unit on Tuesday.The US Border Patrol's internal bulletin noted the following:The Yuma Sector Intelligence Unit recently received information that members of Los Salazar are utilizing drones to drop explosives on members of Los Pelones in an ongoing confrontation south of Sonoyta, MX. Other confrontations between these two organizations have occurred along the border, south of Wellton Stations area of operations, in recent months. Separately, US Northern Command's top general, Air Force Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, told the Senate Armed Services Committee in a hearing in mid-March that more than 1,000 incursions of drones occur along the southern border each month.Guillot warned lawmakers on Capitol Hill that the incursions present a "growing" defense threat to the homeland.
15 state AGs sue Biden administration over ObamaCare coverage for 'Dreamers' -A coalition of 15 state attorneys general are suing the Biden administration over its plan to expand Affordable Care Act (ACA) health coverage to immigrants brought to the U.S. illegally as children. The states, led by Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach (R), want to stop the administration’s plan from taking effect Nov. 1. Under the rule, active recipients of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) will be eligible to enroll in a taxpayer-subsidized health plan under the ACA. The administration estimated the policy would lead to 100,000 newly eligible DACA recipients enrolling in either a marketplace plan or a basic health program. Kobach was joined by attorneys general from Alabama, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee and Virginia. The lawsuit was filed in federal court in North Dakota. “Illegal aliens shouldn’t get a free pass into our country. They shouldn’t receive taxpayer benefits when they arrive, and the Biden-Harris administration shouldn’t get a free pass to violate federal law. That’s why I am leading a multistate lawsuit to stop this illegal regulation from going into effect,” Kobach said in a statement. DACA recipients had previously been excluded from ObamaCare benefits, though other foreign nationals in deferred action programs were not. Under previous Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) rules, DACA recipients were not “lawfully present” in terms of the health care law. That’s led many DACA recipients, particularly those without employer-provided insurance or the means to self-finance health insurance, to fall out of coverage. The lawsuit argues the administration directly contradicted that “lawfully present” language in the law. The lawsuit also said the new policy violates a 1996 welfare reform law that limits eligibility for federal public benefits to certain “qualified aliens.” DACA recipients weren’t included in that definition. The lawsuit says being eligible for ACA coverage will likely create an incentive for undocumented immigrants to remain in the U.S. instead of returning to their countries of origin, creating a financial burden on the state and public school systems. The lawsuit urged the court to postpone the effective date of the rule pending completion of the case. It also sought to vacate the rule as “both contrary to law and unreasonable, arbitrary and capricious.”
Biden admin announces $2.2B in grants to boost US power grid --The U.S. power grid is overburdened and under-resourced — and the Biden administration just announced a major investment aimed at helping solve those problems.The Department of Energy has offered $2.2 billion to eight projects across 18 states that could expand and strengthen the grid. The projects range from deploying grid-enhancing technologies that boost the capacity of existing power lines to building brand-new high-voltage transmission cables that will enable wind farms in the Great Plains and off the coast of New England to plug into the grid.Tuesday’s announcement represents another significant federal investment in the U.S. transmission grid, which isn’t growing fast enough to allow clean energy to come online at the pace needed to combat climate change. Energy experts warn that without a doubling or tripling of existing grid capacity, the country will fail to hit the Biden administration’s goal of halving carbon emissions by 2030.The $2.2 billion in federal grants, to be matched by nearly $10 billion in private-sector and local government investments, will help the country take a small step toward that goal. The new projects will enable 13 gigawatts of new clean energy resources to be connected to the grid,DOE says, including 4.8 GW of offshore wind. The awards are conditional for now — all projects must still commit matching funds and meet certain milestones to receive the federal money.The grants mark the second round of funding under the DOE’s Grid Resilience and Innovation Partnerships Program, created by the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. In October 2023, theGRIP Program chose 58 projects across 44 states to receive a collective $3.5 billion. Those projects are expected to allow 35 gigawatts of new clean energy capacity to come online.The newly announced projects are largely focused on a core set of “innovative grid deployment” technologies that DOE has identified as needing further government support in order to see increased adoption. Ultimately, the goal is to “advance a more modern grid, a more energy-secure future, a grid that’s more reliable and more resilient, and one that delivers more affordable and clean energy,” Ali Zaidi, the national climate adviser to the White House, said in a Monday briefing with reporters.
Markey and Grijalva urge pause on deepwater oil terminal approvals - Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Az.) on Friday called on the Biden administration to pause approvals for deepwater oil export terminals. In a letter to the U.S. Department of Transportation Maritime Administration (MARAD), Markey and Grijalva called for the approval criteria for deepwater terminals to be expanded to factor in criteria like public health, environmental justice and impact on climate change. The criteria currently requires MARAD to determine whether such ports “will be in the national interest and consistent with national security and other national policy goals and objectives, including energy sufficiency and environmental quality.” In its most recent approval, MARAD cleared the Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT) off the coast of Texas in November 2022, although applications are still pending for three further terminals. Only one further terminal is currently online. If the SPOT facility were to come online, it would have the capacity to move 2 million barrels daily, the largest U.S. expert terminal, for an estimated 232 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in total, according to MARAD. Grijalva and Markey noted that MARAD has never denied an export facility approval and took issue with the determination that allowing such facilities to come online is in keeping with the national interest. They further pointed to an executive order President Biden issued in 2021 that requires federal agencies to suspend operations that do not comport with the administration’s public health and environmental goals. “Broadening MARAD’s interpretation of national interest — which already requires an assessment of the impact on energy sufficiency and environmental quality — to more fully include environmental justice, climate, and public health considerations would be consistent with President Biden’s directive. Such a step would also recognize that the anticipated emissions from these oil export facility projects would counteract the benefits of the historic climate investments in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).” The Hill has reached out to the Transportation Department for comment.
Senators want changes to drought, conservation programs - A bipartisan pair of Senate lawmakers is urging the Biden administration to reform a host of drought mitigation programs in a bid to better address aridification in the West and Great Plains states.Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (R) detailed their proposed changes in a letter Wednesday to Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack.“Droughts in Colorado and Kansas are increasing in frequency and intensity,” the lawmakers wrote. “Agriculture in our states is on the frontlines of the effects of long-term drought and producers should be part of the solution to help conserve water while producing food to feed the world.” The list of changes — including how the agency allocates resources for research and development and altering the standards for programs that provide incentives to farmers conserving water — was spurred by a recent field hearing the lawmakers held in Burlington, Colorado.
Becerra says extreme heat emerging as a ‘public health crisis’ -Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra gave remarks in Phoenix Wednesday, acknowledging that a rise in temperatures has led to a “public health crisis.”“The climate change that we are experiencing cannot be denied. It has created, has led to a public health crisis,” he said during a press conference in Arizona, The Associated Press (AP) reported. His visit came as Arizona continues to see triple-digit temperatures this week, according to the National Weather Service. Becerra noted that “people are dying on our streets because of extreme heat.”“What we’re beginning to see is the prominence of extreme heat and no longer just the issue of extreme cold and the weather effects that come from snowstorms and heavy rains, flooding, hurricanes,” Becerra said, according to the news service. “Today it is things that happen as a result of the heat — heat exposure, the need to deal with growing numbers of wildfires.”He was also asked whether heat should be recognized as a weather-related disaster under the Stafford Act, which helps states get federal assistance for weather emergencies, ABC 15 reported.“We’re going to go through all of those really critical issues that have to be explored about when we have an emergency, and under what circumstances the federal government comes in and says, ‘We’re going to now assist the state,’” he said, according to the local outlet.“And I think most people recognize that what we’re facing with extreme heat today wasn’t what we were experiencing 30 years ago, 40 years ago,” Becerra added.Roughly 1,220 people are killed by extreme heat in the United States every year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In Arizona’s Maricopa County, there have been 66 heat-related deaths this year with another 447 deaths under investigation for heat-related causesBecerra’s warning comes after the Biden administration proposed the nation’s first-ever standards aimed at protecting workers from extreme heat last month, which would mandate that employers provide rest breaks and access to shade and water for workers who experience risks from the heat.
Memo to the Supreme Court: Clean Air Act Targeted CO2 as Climate Pollutant, Study Says - Among the many obstacles to enacting federal limits on climate pollution, none has been more daunting than the Supreme Court. That is where the Obama administration’s efforts to regulate power plant emissions met their demise and where the Biden administration’s attempts will no doubt land. A forthcoming study seeks to inform how courts consider challenges to these regulations by establishing once and for all that the lawmakers who shaped the Clean Air Act in 1970 knew scientists considered carbon dioxide an air pollutant, and that these elected officials were intent on limiting its emissions.The research, expected to be published next week in the journal Ecology Law Quarterly, delves deep into congressional archives to uncover what it calls a “wide-ranging and largely forgotten conversation between leading scientists, high-level administrators at federal agencies, members of Congress” and senior staff under Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon. That conversation detailed what had become the widely accepted science showing that carbon dioxide pollution from fossil fuels was accumulating in the atmosphere and would eventually warm the global climate.The findings could have important implications in light of a legal doctrine the Supreme Court established when it struck down the Obama administration’s power plant rules, said Naomi Oreskes, a history of science professor at Harvard University and the study’s lead author. That so-called “major questions” doctrine asserted that when courts hear challenges to regulations with broad economic and political implications, they ought to consider lawmakers’ original intent and the broader context in which legislation was passed.“The Supreme Court has implied that there’s no way that the Clean Air Act could really have been intended to apply to carbon dioxide because Congress just didn’t really know about this issue at that time,” Oreskes said. “We think that our evidence shows that that is false.”The work began in 2013 after Oreskes arrived at Harvard, she said, when a call from a colleague prompted the question of what Congress knew about climate science in the 1960s as it was developing Clean Air Act legislation. She had already co-authored the book Merchants of Doubt, about the efforts of industry-funded scientists to cast doubt about the risks of tobacco and global warming, and was familiar with the work of scientists studying climate change in the 1950s. “What I didn’t know,” she said, “was how much they had communicated that, particularly to Congress.”Oreskes hired a researcher to start looking and what they both found surprised her. The evidence they uncovered includes articles cataloged by the staff of the act’s chief architect, proceedings of scientific conferences attended by members of Congress and correspondence with constituents and scientific advisers to Johnson and Nixon. The material included documents pertaining not only to environmental champions but also other prominent members of Congress. “These were people really at the center of power,” Oreskes said.
Lawmakers urge Biden administration to approve MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD -Bipartisan lawmakers in the House and Senate are pressuring the Biden administration about MDMA-assisted therapy to treat post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). In a letter to President Biden, retired Marine Corps Lt. Gen. and current Rep. Jack Bergman (R-Mich.) and 60 other members of the House asked the administration to follow the science and approve a new treatment that uses MDMA — the chemical found in ecstasy or molly — with talk therapy to treat PTSD. Bergman is the highest-ranking combat veteran in Congress. A similar letter to Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Robert Califf from 19 senators was led by Sens. Michael Bennett (D-Colo.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). More than 13 million individuals in the U.S. live with PTSD, and veterans are disproportionately affected, according to estimates from the National Center for PTSD. But current treatments are notoriously not very effective. The FDA has not approved any new treatments for PTSD in more than two decades, and the lawmakers said continued high rates of veteran suicides means the government must do more to protect veterans. “Despite billions of federal dollars spent on addressing PTSD and mental health, the number of Veteran lives lost to suicide has not decreased,” the House letter stated. “This is due in part to the fact that the FDA has not approved any new treatments for PTSD in nearly 25 years. This astounding lack of innovation has undoubtedly contributed to our rising Veteran suicide rates over the past two decades.” The lawmakers said FDA’s own studies show there is significant promise in using psychedelic therapy with MDMA to treat veterans suffering from PTSD, but that the FDA needs to follow the evidence. “The potential for groundbreaking advancements in PTSD treatment is within reach, and we owe it to our veterans and other affected populations to review these potentially transformative therapies based on robust clinical and scientific evidence,” the senators wrote. “If comprehensive evidence demonstrates that MDMA-AT is both effective and safe when administered in appropriate settings, it is our responsibility to ensure that this treatment option is made available to those who could benefit from it.” The FDA is set to decide this week whether to approve the application from Lykos Therapeutics. Supporters have launched a pressure campaign, as approval is far from certain.
"I F**king Told Them!": Enraged Butler Cop On Bodycam Says He Told Secret Service To Cover Warehouse Used By Shooter, And They Agreed -- Bodycam footage from local Pennsylvania police reveal that in the moments after last month's attempted assassination of Donald Trump,an officer says he told the Secret Service to cover the warehouse used by shooter Thomas Matthew Crooks."I f—ing told them that they needed to post guys f—ing over here…I told them that f—ing Tuesday," said a Butler Township officer in audio captured by his body-worn camera and obtained by the Wall Street Journal. "I talked to the Secret Service guys. They’re like, ‘Yeah, no problem. We’re going to post guys over here,'" the officer continues.The footage paints a more complete picture of the anger and frustration moments after Thomas Matthew Crookswas able to fire eight shots at the former president from an AR-style assault rifle. A spectator was killed, two others were injured, and Trump suffered a bullet wound to the ear. The Journal obtained the videos under a public-records request Thursday.A police officer in one of the videos at one point refers to a suspicious individual who had been lost by authorities. The unidentified officer referred to “a gentleman with a flat face that we were looking for earlier. He was creeping people out.” The officer's account, which was broadcast over radio channels, was captured by one of the body cameras. "He was watching people out in the woods by the water tower. I’m not sure he is the gentleman down or not," the officer says.Around 10 minutes after the shooting, another officer says to a fellow officer "I thought you guys were on the roof. I thought it was you. I thought it was you."To which "No" can be heard in response.What the fuck! Why were we not on the roof? Why weren't we?" the officer replies.
Supreme Court rejects Missouri's bid to block Trump's sentencing --The Supreme Court on Monday refused to consider Missouri’s long-shot bid to block former President Trump’s criminal sentencing and gag order in his hush money case.In a brief order, the justices turned away Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey’s (R) attempt to go straight to the high court by invoking its exclusive, original jurisdiction over disputes between two states — Bailey’s state directly sued New York. Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, two of the court’s leading conservatives, said they would’ve allowed Missouri to file the suit but “would not grant other relief.” No other justice publicly dissented. The duo provided no explanation Monday, but Thomas and Alito in years past have repeatedly opined that the Supreme Court doesn’t have discretion in deciding whether to take up cases that invoke its original jurisdiction. Bailey’s long-shot attempt sought to block Trump’s Sept. 18 sentencing and gag order in his hush money case until after the presidential election. Trump was convicted in May on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in connection with a hush money deal during his 2016 campaign, marking the first-ever criminal conviction of a former U.S. president. He has vowed to appeal, but Trump is first slated to be sentenced just weeks before the election, unless his trial judge tosses the verdict because of the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity decision. Bailey accused New York of violating Missourians’ First Amendment rights and interfering with the presidential election in the state. By suing the state directly, Bailey forced New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) to defend Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s (D) prosecution of the former president. James’s office told the justices to turn away the suit, criticizing it for containing “bare assertions of bad faith” and arguing it wasn’t an actual controversy between two states. Though James was not involved in Trump’s criminal case, she is a visible foe for the former president, having taken him to civil trial and winning hundreds of millions of dollars in damages over accusations of fraud earlier this year. “It’s disappointing that the Supreme Court refused to exercise its constitutional responsibility to resolve state v. state disputes,” Bailey wrote on the social platform X, vowing to continue to “prosecute our lawsuit.”
Nevada Agrees To Purge 90K Ineligible Voters From Election Rolls -- Nevada has agreed to purge over 90,000 ineligible voters from its rolls following a legal battle with the Republican National Committee and the Trump campaign, according to a press statement from the Nevada GOP. The purge will focus on Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, and will remove individuals no longer active under state law, the Wednesday statement alleged,RNC Chair Michael Whatley praised the decision as a significant step for voter security. “Election integrity starts with clean voter rolls, and that’s why we’ve brought litigation in key states to compel outcomes just like this,” he tweeted.The Nevada GOP’s Executive Board also expressed satisfaction with the voter roll cleanup in a press statement.
Pelosi says some Republicans have told her Dems ‘have to beat’ Trump in November - Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said some Republicans have told her that Democrats “have to beat” former President Trump in the election this November for politics to return to normal.Pelosi joined MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell on Wednesday to discuss the new Democratic ticket, the attacks she’s received from the far right since Trump took power and her recently published book, “The Art of Power.”“The Republican Party has been hijacked, and it’s now a cult, and they should take it back because a republic needs a strong Republican Party,” Pelosi said.The California Democrat said the GOP has done “great things” while in leadership and provided for the country but said “what now?” in reference to Trump-era politics.“So, in any event, we just have to win the election,” she said.“They have told me, some of the Republicans, ‘you have to beat them in the general because we can’t beat them in the primary. And then we will come back to our debate on the issues,’” Pelosi said of Trump and his new running mate Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio.).Pelosi and Trump have traded insults for years now. As one of the most outspoken critics of the former president while he was in office, Pelosi’s book details her experience inside the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, when Trump supporters came looking for her.Despite reports saying she led a pressure campaign to oust President Biden from the top of the ticket this fall, Pelosi said she left the decision completely up to the president.Pelosi — who remains one of the most powerful and influential Democrats in the party — said she did not make one call during the transition period after the first presidential debate.Pelosi officially backed Vice President Harris last month, endorsing her with “immense pride and limitless optimism for our country’s future.”
Polls are showing an undeniable shift toward Kamala Harris --Two weeks after becoming the Democratic nominee for president, Vice President Kamala Harris’s surge in enthusiasm and support has considerably narrowed the 2024 election. Last week in these pages, we wrote that while there was limited data available, Harris was clearly an improvement over President Biden. Now, new national and state-level polling suggests that assessment might be even more prescient, and points to an election that will be much closer than many had expected. Indeed, national polling underscores just how much the race has tightened. According to the 10 most recent public polls conducted after Biden’s withdrawal and aggregated by RealClearPolitics, Trump leads by an average of just 1 point, down from 3 points on the eve of Harris replacing Biden. Further, Harris has an outright lead over Trump in three of those recent polls, including those conducted by Daily Kos/Civiqs (49 percent to 45 percent), Reuters (43 percent to 42 percent), and Morning Consult (47 percent to 46 percent). Quite simply, what had been a lopsided race in the weeks after Biden’s debate has now become a tossup amid Harris’s growing strength and momentum. In the seven swing states that will likely determine the election, Harris has virtually erased Trump’s lead, according to a new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll. Across all seven states, Harris’s 48 percent to 47 percent lead, while statistically, a tie, is a 3-point improvement from Biden, who trailed Trump by two points (47 percent to 45 percent) before he withdrew late last month. Within individual states, Harris’s numbers — and her outperformance of Biden — are even more impressive. In both Arizona and Nevada, states where Trump had led Biden, Harris now leads by 2 points. And in Michigan, Harris’s 11-point lead (53 percent to 42 percent) is more than double Biden’s previous lead. To be sure, while topline numbers suggest that this is anyone’s race, the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll suggests that Harris’s support may be due to genuine enthusiasm for — and acceptance of — her candidacy that was clearly absent when Biden was atop the ticket. More than 4 in 10 (44 percent) voters say they are “much more” or “somewhat more” likely to vote now that Harris is the nominee, including nearly two-thirds of Black voters (64 percent), as well as strong majorities of Gen Z (61 percent) and Hispanic voters (56 percent). Critically, those constituencies are core parts of the Democratic base, and after months of eroding enthusiasm for Biden, those groups all appear to be coming back into the fold to support Harris. Across all seven swing states in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, Harris leads Trump with Black voters (75 percent to 19 percent), voters under 35 years old (52 percent to 42 percent), Hispanic voters (56 percent to 38 percent) and suburban women (52 percent to 42 percent). To that end, Harris is also seeing a rise in her personal metrics. According to a separate Morning Consult poll, one-half (50 percent) of voters now have a positive view of Harris, a 7-point improvement from two weeks ago, before her campaign had begun in earnest. And the share of Americans having an unfavorable view of the vice president has dropped in tandem, from 51 percent two weeks ago to 46 percent now. As Morning Consult notes, “Harris’s 4-point net favorability is a higher rating than Biden or Trump have posted all cycle.”
GOP senators say Trump caught ‘off guard’ by Harris’s strength --Republican lawmakers say the Trump campaign was caught off guard by President Biden’s decision to drop his reelection bid and that the former president’s team has faltered in responding to the surge of momentum behind Vice President Harris. Some Republican senators think former President Trump should have seen the swap atop the Democrat ticket coming and crafted a messaging and political strategy weeks ago. They see Trump’s awkward discussion about Harris’s racial heritage at the National Association of Black Journalists convention as a clear sign the Trump campaign hasn’t yet hammered out a workable strategy for the battle against Harris. GOP lawmakers also view Trump’s selection of Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate as evidence that the former president didn’t expect Biden to drop out of the race. They worry Vance’s outspoken views on restricting abortion and his claim that “childless cat ladies” run the country play right into the message that Harris and Democrats will center their campaign on in the fall. One Republican senator who spoke to Trump before he announced Vance as his running mate said the former president expressed skepticism that Biden would drop out of the race. “I think they were caught off guard. I think they were surprised,” the senator said. “I think there was shock when the Democrats revived [their party] really quickly” and unified support behind Harris. “I think she’s more formidable than Republicans give her credit for. It’s going to be a short election. That favors her. It’s going to be sprint. We’re used to these long elections; this one’s going to end up being short. That helps her,” the lawmaker said of Harris, who announced she had raised $310 million for her campaign in July. The lawmaker said Trump’s selection of Vance as his running mate to combat Biden’s strength in Michigan and Pennsylvania, specifically, showed he expected the incumbent to be his opponent in the fall. A second GOP senator in contact with Trump who requested anonymity to speak candidly about the campaign said the GOP nominee and his team weren’t ready for the entire Democratic Party to rally behind Harris within a few days of Biden dropping his reelection bid. “I think it was a surprise,” the lawmaker said. “I wasn’t surprised at all. I was already betting on a different nominee. What was impressive to me was how quickly they consolidated” behind Harris. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), one of Trump’s closest allies in the Senate, insisted in an interview with The Hill that Trump thought Harris taking over the Democratic ticket was a possibility. But Graham acknowledged Trump is having difficulty finding a message that hits home against Harris amid widespread Democratic enthusiasm about her campaign. “It’s pretty hard; she’s sort of having a honeymoon period here. I think the way forward is, she empowered the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, she was the border czar, on and on and on. Her policy choices have been disastrous for our country. I think that’s the theme,” he said.
Widening Divide: Energy And Climate Policies In The Presidential Race – Forbes --The 2024 presidential race has starkly highlighted the growing chasm between Republicans and Democrats on energy and climate policy.In fact, it could be argued that the two parties have never been further apart on the issue after Republican Donald Trump’s selection of J.D. Vance as his running mate and Kamala Harris’s rapid ascension as the presumptive Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out.Trump's choice of Vance reinforces the GOP's pro-oil stance. Vance is a staunch supporter of drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking), often criticizing renewable energy sources like solar and wind. He views the Biden administration’s approach as a direct threat to U.S. energy production, a message that could resonate with voters grappling with a 20% rise in prices for most goods and services since Biden took office.Vance’s policies aim to cut red tape and streamline permitting for oil and gas projects nationwide. His legislative efforts include co-sponsoring the “Power Act,” requiring Congressional approval before delaying leases or permits for oil, gas and mining on federal lands, and the “STOVE Act,” which would block federal agencies from banning gas stoves and appliances.With the economy and inflation as central issues in the upcoming election, particularly in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Vance's selection is a strategic move. Pennsylvania, a significant natural gas producer, stands to be influenced by Vance's pro-fracking stance. The shale boom over the past 15 years, driven by fracking in regions like the Marcellus and Utica Shales, underscores the importance of these policies to local economies.Trump and Vance’s campaign emphasizes lowering fuel prices by increasing domestic oil and gas production, thereby reducing inflation. They pledge to leave the Paris climate agreement (again) and cut federal subsidies for clean energy technology, aiming to make America “energy dominant” by easing regulations on domestic production. Under Trump, America will be “done buying energy from countries that hate us," Vance has said. "We’re going to get it right here, from American workers in Pennsylvania and Ohio and across the country. We’re done sacrificing supply chains to unlimited global trade, and we’re going to stamp more and more products with that beautiful label, ‘Made in the USA.'"Vance and Trump oppose government subsidies for renewable energy, arguing that these technologies should compete on their own. They also criticize environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing, with Vance, a former venture capitalist, calling it a “massive racket” that harms American jobs. That view has gained traction with voters, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 highlighted the need for supply security.Vance’s legislative efforts include promoting domestic manufacturing for clean energy while opposing policies like the suspension of tariffs on Chinese solar components. He has also introduced the “Drive American Act” to repeal the federal tax credit for electric vehicles, advocating instead for tax credits for U.S.-made gasoline or diesel vehicles.Vance has said he would eliminate much of the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s landmark 2022 climate law. However, if some local companies support specific provisions, Vance has expressed flexibility about keeping portions of the law.
Climate cash pours into election swing region. Will it help Harris? - — The battery factory was born in the dark. When Eos Energy Enterprises moved into a vacant 19th-century factory two years ago, a group of employees searched the vast, darkened building for a light switch by the glow of their phones. Today, the lights are beaming brightly, offering a glimpse of the clean energy revolution that President Joe Biden hopes he has unleashed in America. More than 300 people are making long-duration batteries for the power grid here. On one floor, workers assemble components against the backdrop of a large American flag. On another, a fleet of yellow robotic arms inject electrolytes and seal lids on the parade of gray, suitcase-sized batteries riding down a conveyor belt. “I think we’re going to change the world,” said Dana Radic, a 34-year-old operations manager, as she watched batteries being loaded into containers bound for customers. “I’m working for a company that’s doing something that no one else in the world is doing.” The question is whether voters will notice. Western Pennsylvania is ground zero for the climate agenda inherited by Vice President Kamala Harris, who became the Democratic presidential nominee on Monday after Biden’s exit from the race last month. The region is a focal point of America’s natural gas industry and home to a powerful labor movement and an emerging clean energy sector, making it a testing ground for the administration’s plans to phase down fossil fuels while ramping up renewable energy jobs. This swing region could help tip the scales in a state election forecasters widely believe could decide the presidential contest. In 2016, Donald Trump won the state by less than a percentage point on his path to the White House, only to see Biden reverse those margins four years later. The outcome this year stands to determine whether the climate agenda begun under Biden continues to gather steam with Harris, or if Trump, who has labeled such efforts a “Green New Scam,” will steer it toward a dead end. National polls show that many voters are unaware of the Inflation Reduction Act, the sweeping climate law that contains $369 billion in clean energy tax breaks for companies like Eos. “They’re not seeing it as much as they should,” said John Walliser, who oversees policy work at the Pennsylvania Environmental Council. “This is really driving a renaissance in a lot of ways. I don’t think the appreciation is there quite yet, especially when you see the extra amount of investment and the good things that are starting to come out of that.”
Harris once wanted to ban fracking. Trump wants voters in energy-rich Pennsylvania to remember (AP) — Facing the need to win battleground Pennsylvania, Vice President Kamala Harris is swearing off any prior assertion that she opposed fracking, but that hasn't stopped Republican Donald Trump from wielding her now-abandoned position to win over voters in a state where the natural gas industry means jobs. Last week, in his first appearance in Pennsylvania since Harris became the Democrats' presumptive nominee, Trump repeatedly warned that Harris would ban fracking — a position she held as apresidential primary candidate in 2019 — and devastate the economy in the nation's No. 2 natural gas state. “She's against fracking, she's against oil drilling, she wants everybody to have one electric car and share it with the neighbors," Trump told rallygoers at a Harrisburg rally on Wednesday, which was also his first appearance in the state since he was wounded in a July 13 assassination attempt in Butler County. “Harris has stated repeatedly that she supports, quote, banning fracking. I'll ban fracking, I'll ban it on my first day.” Harris’ campaign, in a statement, insisted she would not ban fracking, and called Trump’s claims an “attempt to distract from his own plans to enrich oil and gas executives at the expense of the middle class.”Still, Trump criticized Harris' support as a senator and candidate in 2020's presidential primary for a Democratic resolution to create a “Green New Deal,” a sweeping progressive effort to shift the country toward renewable energy. Trump called the platform — never fully translated into policy proposals — a “$100 trillion green new scam designed to abolish the oil, coal and natural gas industry entirely.”While Harris considers choosing popular Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as a finalist to be her running mate on the Democratic ticket, Trump has made it clear that he won't concede the swing state, part of the decisive “blue wall” along with Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump repeatedly has said his administration would “drill baby drill” and dismissed Harris' change of position with these words of caution: "Remember, a politician always goes back to what their original thought was.”Republicans routinely attack Democrats over fracking to drive a wedge into the party's fragile alliance between its left wing, which is hostile to fossil fuels, and its bedrock building trade union base, whose workers are building an expanding network of gas pipelines, power plants and processing facilities in Pennsylvania.Republicans have used similar attacks in the past two election cycles, both unsuccessfully, against Joe Biden in 2020's presidential race and against Sen. John Fetterman in 2022.
Joe Rogan endorses Robert F. Kennedy over Donald Trump, Kamala Harris -- Podcaster Joe Rogan on Thursday threw his weight behind independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over ei --ther of the major party candidates, making the online influencer known for dabbling in conspiracies one of Kennedy’s most notable endorsements.Rogan said on his video podcast “The Joe Rogan Experience” that he views both Democrats and Republicans as perverting democratic norms.“That’s just what they do. That’s politics. They do it on the left, they do it on the right,” Rogan said. “They gaslight you, they manipulate you, they promote narratives, and the only one who is not doing that is Robert F. Kennedy Jr.”Rogan added that he’s a “fan” of Kennedy.“He’s the only one that makes sense to me,” he said. “He’s the only one — he doesn’t attack people, he attacks actions and ideas, but he’s much more reasonable and intelligent. I mean, the guy was an environmental lawyer and he cleaned up the East River. He’s a legitimate guy.”Both Kennedy and Rogan have been critical of vaccines, specifically the COVID-19 vaccine, and spread conspiracies about its efficacy. Rogan’s show, exclusive to Spotify, is consistently one of the most popular podcasts in the world. He conducts long, wide-ranging interviews with a variety of guests, including comedians, athletes and scientists, among others.Kennedy’s support has waned since early in his campaign, falling to under 4 percent support in polls against former President Trump and Vice President Harris, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ average of national polls.Rogan said last week he believes Harris will defeat Trump in November.“I’m saying it because she could. I’m not saying it because I think she’s going to and I’m not saying it because I want her to. I’m just being honest. I could see her winning,” he said.Rogan previously said that he voted for Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen in 2020, after endorsing Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the 2020 primaries.
Kamala Harris picks right-wing governor as Democratic running mate - The selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as the running mate for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has become the occasion for a full-scale propaganda campaign. The corporate media, backed by Senator Bernie Sanders, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and pseudo-left groups like the Democratic Socialists of America, are portraying Walz as a “progressive,” even “left-wing” figure, in an attempt to bolster support for the Democratic Party, a party of Wall Street and the military-intelligence agencies. Walz was one of six on Harris’s shortlist of potential vice presidential choices. These included Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, and three other governors: Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Andy Beshear of Kentucky and J.B. Pritzker of Illinois. Those in the group were politically interchangeable, all trusted servants of the ruling class, all supporters of US imperialism’s war against Russia in Ukraine and its preparations for war against Iran and China. Walz has already demonstrated his dedication to the defense of American imperialism. Before embarking on a political career, he spent 24 years in the Army National Guard (enlisting at age 17), rising to the top level for a non-commissioned officer, command sergeant major, specializing in field artillery. In the course of 12 years in Congress and six as governor, Walz has compiled an absolutely conventional record as a right-wing capitalist politician. He served the agribusiness interests which dominated his rural southern Minnesota district—including giants like Cargill and Hormel. As governor, he did the bidding of the billion-dollar corporations headquartered in the Twin Cities, such as Target, 3M, General Mills, Best Buy, US Bancorp, Xcel Energy and United Health Care. When protests broke out in Minneapolis in 2020, after the police murder of George Floyd shocked the world, Walz sent in the National Guard. His supposed “progressive” measures, such as making school breakfasts and lunches free, enacted last year after the Democrats gained control of both houses of the state legislature, were similar to the legislation pursued by the Biden administration during 2021–2022, when the Democrats controlled both houses of Congress. The reforms were entirely inadequate, a drop in the bucket compared to actual social needs, and pushed through only to buy time while the administration pursued its real priority, instigating and waging the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. When Harris’s short list emerged publicly, however, the trade union apparatus immediately embraced Walz as their favorite. Shawn Fain of the UAW declared that Walz and Beshear were his top choices, while most other AFL-CIO unions endorsed Walz as the continuation of Biden’s “pro-union” posturing. The union executives regarded Walz, a former public school teacher and member of the National Education Association, with close relations with the United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW), United Steelworkers (USW) and Teamsters, as the vice presidential hopeful most likely to provide them a “seat at the table” in deciding how to implement policies that will reduce the living standards, jobs and social benefits of the working class.
Battle begins over Vance and Walz military records -Both Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) tout distinguished military records. But clashes over the specifics of their years in the armed forces were quickly ignited between their camps this week after the vice presidential match-up was set. Vance, who served in the Marines, took the opening shot Wednesday at Walz, who served 24 years in the National Guard. The Republican presidential nominee accused his Democratic rival of “stolen valor” for leaving service before a deployment to Iraq and claiming he served in a war. “I wonder, Tim Walz, when were you ever in war?” Vance said at a campaign stop in Michigan. “He has not spent a day in a combat zone … I’d be ashamed if I was him and I lied about my military service like he did.” Vance appeared to be referring to a clip of Walz, which the Harris campaign shared on social media, in which the governor says while speaking about gun control, “We can make sure those weapons of war, that I carried in war, are only carried in war.” Walz has not served in combat. The Hill has reached out to the Harris-Walz campaign for comment. Supporters of Walz have pointed out that Vance admitted in his memoir that he never saw real combat either, and that Walz has never misrepresented his rank. Jacob Thomas, communications director and a spokesperson for the progressive veterans’ group Common Defense, said it was “weird and desperate” to attack a fellow veteran’s military record. “That just doesn’t seem like a winning message,” he said. “We don’t need to spend this time hitting each other on things that don’t matter. We all served. And like I said, frankly, it just reeks of desperation.” Walz and Vance stand out as veterans on national tickets, the first since the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) ran for president in 2008. Former President Trump famously avoided the draft during the Vietnam War after being diagnosed with bone spurs, and Vice President Harris did not serve in the military. Either man would be the first veteran to serve as president or vice president since President George W. Bush, a former lieutenant in the Texas Air National Guard. For Harris and Trump, choosing a veteran with a notable military record was likely a factor in selecting their vice presidential candidates, said Matt Bennett, executive vice president for public affairs of the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way.
Walz’s history of green-friendly governance follows mixed House record Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) has pursued an ambitious climate agenda in his state that has earned him plaudits from green groups and the environmental lobby as Vice President Harris’s vice presidential pick. But that agenda marks a departure from his more centrist record on the issue in the House, which included votes to authorize the controversial Keystone XL pipeline and oppose former President Obama-era wetlands protections. The Tuesday announcement of the pick was hailed by advocates, who have pointed to eye-catching moves like Walz’s 2023 signing of a law that requires Minnesota to get all of its electricity from carbon-free sources by the end of the next decade. Walz and allies in the state Legislature worked to pass more than 40 climate-related bills that session. While Walz had a largely progressive voting record in the House, however, he was known to diverge from the party line on energy and environment issues and buck Obama, the only Democratic president whose tenure coincided with his. Walz, who flipped a rural, historically Republican district in 2006, has a 75 percent lifetime score on environmental legislation from the League of Conservation Voters (LCV), below the 90 percent score Harris received for her Senate career. He received his worst annual score, 14 percent, in 2018, the year he was elected governor, after receiving a 97 percent the previous year. The LCV’s scorecard indicates he cast an “anti-environment” vote 30 times that session versus five votes the group scored as “pro-environment;” in 2017, the ratio was 34 pro-environment votes to 1 anti-environment vote. The one 2017 vote was in favor of a Republican-backed measure that would weaken Clean Water Act safeguards against pesticide discharge. In 2014, Walz voted with the House’s GOP majority and 30 other Democrats to approve the approval of Keystone XL, a pipeline project that would have carried Canadian crude oil across the northern border. The pipeline has been a longtime flashpoint for environmental activists, and then-President Obama delayed it the next year. President Biden revoked the pipeline’s permit in 2021, and the operator, TC Energy Corporation, canceled plans for its construction outright later that year. In 2015, Walz was one of only 24 House Democrats to vote to overturn an Obama administration rule adding small streams, wetlands, headwaters and tributaries to the waters falling under the authority of the Clean Water Act. Democratic opposition to the rule was largely concentrated among the right-leaning Blue Dog Coalition, though Walz was not associated with that caucus during his time in Congress. And while his tenure as governor has been broadly progressive, Cassidy DePaola, communications director at Fossil Free Media, also pointed to his decision as governor to approve another hotly disputed pipeline, Line 3 of the Enbridge oil pipeline in northern Minnesota. The project, which completed construction in October 2021, has been fiercely opposed by local activists and tribal organizations. Minnesota climate organization MN350 slammed Walz’s approval of the pipeline and the arrests of protestors attempting to halt the project. “Shame on Governor Walz, who broke his campaign promise and left a legacy of climate chaos and oppression, militarizing the state against peaceful people who want to preserve our best odds for a livable present,” Andy Pearson, MN350’s Midwest tar sands coordinator, said in a statement in September 2021.
Why Trump supporters are calling Walz ‘Tampon Tim’ -- Former President Trump’s campaign and supporters are going after Vice President Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), dubbing him “Tampon Tim” in reference to a bill he signed last year requiring schools to provide free menstrual products in all public school bathrooms. The Minnesota law, which went into effect Jan. 1, mandates menstrual products — including pads, tampons and other items — “must be available to all menstruating students in restrooms regularly used by students in grades 4 to 12 according to a plan developed by the school district.”State Republican lawmakers pushed back on the legislation at the time, but ultimately failed to amend the bill to apply only for girls’ bathrooms. Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt called out Walz for the law shortly after Harris announced he would join her on the Democratic presidential ticket. “As a woman, I think there is no greater threat to our health than leaders who support gender-transition surgeries for young minors, who support putting tampons in men’s bathrooms in public schools,” Leavitt said on Fox News. “Those are radical policies that Tim Walz supports. He actually signed a bill to do that.”The primary super PAC supporting Trump called Walz a “weird radical liberal,” as part of a new campaign ad against the governor. “What could be weirder than signing a bill requiring schools to stock tampons in boys’ bathrooms?” the Make America Great Again Inc. account wrote Tuesday on the social platform X. “Or weirder than signing legislation allowing minors to receive sex change operations?”LBGTQ rights groups celebrated Harris’s decision Tuesday, highlighting his support for equality.Walz issued an executive order last year establishing the North Star State as a safe haven for transgender minors wishing to obtain gender-affirming health care and a refuge for individuals seeking an abortion, as well as their doctors and their families. Conservative podcaster Liz Wheeler reposted an edited photo of Walz’s face on a tampon box Tuesday, with the words “Tampon Tim,” writing on X, “He put tampons in men’s bathroom. What a creep.”
Walz pick highlights partisan divisions on free school lunches - Should all school kids get free meals — regardless of income? Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) selection as Vice President Harris’s running mate has brought that once-peripheral policy issue — and the long-running partisan divide over it — to the center of the 2024 presidential campaign.Walz’s administration last year instituted free meals for all public school children in Minnesota, making it one of eight states — all of them headed by Democrats — to do so. The Biden administration also last September expanded access to universal free school meals across the country.Those moves drew on a national experiment by the Trump administration, which created a universal school lunch program early in the COVID-19 pandemic.But that drive — which briefly made a longtime progressive policy dream a national reality — marked a departure from Republicans’ broader opposition to such programs.In contrast with the 2020 experiment, which then-Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue described as a temporary example of government “flexibility,” over the three previous years the Trump administration sought to remove nearly 1 million children’s access to free school meals — and roll back Obama-era rules making such meals healthier.Since the pandemic’s early months, partisan divisions on the issue have deepened.As universal school meal proposals have spread across the country and been adopted by several Democratic governors and legislatures, they have been largely opposed by state Republicans. GOP governors have turned down federal funds to feed school children during the summer.The Republican Study Committee, a caucus that makes up about three-fourths of the House GOP, in March published a draft budget that sought to drastically cut back on districts feeding meals to all students — specifically by ending the Community Eligibility Provision, the free meals program the Biden Department of Agriculture (USDA) just expanded.And Project 2025, the conservative battle plan for a future Republican administration, argues that a GOP president must “reject efforts to create universal free school meals” and roll back the steps the federal government has already taken in that direction.Trump has sought to distance himself from the Project 2025 plan, telling journalists that “It will not end well” for those who conflate the project with his campaign. But much of the plan was written by his former staffers, and many of its proposals echo those from his advisers and those his administration followed.Now, with Walz on the Democratic ticket and Harris surging, the interparty split on school lunches is coming into the spotlight. A 2023 photo of Walz signing the school meals bill has gone viral, and the governor himself highlighted the divide in the CNN interview that rocketed him — and the framing of Republicans as “weird” — to national prominence.When CNN’s Jake Tapper asked Walz if his policy moves in Minnesota would leave him open to GOP attacks as a “big government liberal,” school lunches were the first item the governor listed on his resume.Walz — a former high school teacher and football coach — signed the school meal bill in March 2023, making Minnesota the fourth state to pass universal school meals.“What a monster! Kids are eating and having full bellies so they can go learn,” Walz said, laughing, before going on to tout state Democratic policies to foster reproductive rights and business development.
Trump campaign says its internal communications were hacked -Former President Trump’s campaign said some of its internal communications were recently hacked by foreign sources.The breach was first reported by Politico after the outlet received emails from an anonymous account with documents from the Trump campaign.The campaign said the leak came from “foreign sources hostile to the United States.” His campaign pointed to a report released Friday from Microsoft that said Iran is targeting the 2024 election.“These documents were obtained illegally from foreign sources hostile to the United States, intended to interfere with the 2024 election and sow chaos throughout our Democratic process,” Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a statement to The Hill.Cheung said the report from Microsoft found Iranian hackers “broke into the account of a ‘high ranking official’” on the presidential campaign in June 2024.After Trump’s assassination attempt last month at a Pennsylvania rally, the Biden administration claimed that Iran made threats to kill the former president. Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied the reports, calling them “malicious.”Cheung noted the timing of the campaign hack and the “Iranian plot to assassinate President Trump around the same time as the Butler, PA tragedy.”“The Iranians know that President Trump will stop their reign of terror just like he did in his first four years in the White House,” Cheung said. “Any media or news outlet reprinting documents or internal communications are doing the bidding of America’s enemies and doing exactly what they want.”Politico said it began receiving emails from an AOL email account from someone identified as “Robert” on July 22.In the documents shared with the outlet was a research dossier from February on Trump’s running mate Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio). A similar document was sent about Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who was also on Trump’s VP shortlist.Robert told Politico that they had a “variety of documents” from Trump’s legal battles and internal campaign discussions.When asked how they obtained the documents, the person told the outlet, “I suggest you don’t be curious about where I got them from. Any answer to this question, will compromise me and also legally restricts you from publishing them.”It’s not known how much information the hacker was able to obtain, but it shows the Trump campaign experienced a large security breach, the outlet reported.
Cori Bush calls out AIPAC after defeat: ‘I’m coming to tear your kingdom down’ Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) vowed revenge on a top pro-Israel PAC after she lost the primary in her reelection campaign Tuesday. The group boosted her opponent in a tightly contested race, knocking off a second member of the progressive “squad” this cycle. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s (AIPAC) super PAC, United Democracy Project, was a top funder of Bush’s opponent, St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell. Bush was harshly criticized for her outspoken criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza. Bush said in a fiery speech after her loss that leaving Congress will only “takes some strings off.” “Because now, there are some strings that I have attached. And as much as I love my job, all they did was radicalize me, and now they should be afraid,” she said. “They’re about to see this other Cori, this other side,” she continued. “There is nothing that happens in my life that happens in vain. So, this happened because it was meant to happen. And let me say, it’s because of the work that I need to do.” “And let me say this: AIPAC, I’m coming to tear your kingdom down!” she added to cheers. The “squad” member has called the ongoing Gaza war “Israel’s ethnic cleansing campaign,” and earlier this year introduced the Ceasefire Now Resolution. Some of her rhetoric has been met with backlash from other congressional members, but also constituents in her own district. “I think [her] comments show a lack of understanding of the nuance and complexities of an issue that’s literally hundreds of years in the making,” Bell said when he announced his campaign. According to Sludge, AIPAC helped raise two-thirds of the campaign funding for Bell. The United Democracy Project spent more than $7 million to oust Bush. Bush is the second “squad” member to lose a primary this cycle, after Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) was also defeated by an opponent that received significant support from AIPAC. After his loss last month, some progressives sounded the alarm over the group’s influence. “I think we need to have a real conversation about the AIPAC,” Ocasio-Cortez said after Bowman’s defeat. The group is controversial in some Democratic circles, because it has boosted conservative candidates throughout its history, and some of its funding comes from top GOP donors. “I think that what we do need to have a real conversation about is how a Republican — primarily Republican and largely Republican-financed — organization is playing and dumping money and playing an extremely divisive role in the Democratic Party,” said Ocasio-Cortez, who won her primary the same night Bowman lost. Tuesday’s primary result, combined with Bowman’s loss, slims the “squad’s” roster from nine to seven members of Congress. The group’s original four members, elected together in 2018, are expected to remain. AIPAC has pushed back on the accusation that it is trying to sow discord among Democrats by inserting itself into primaries, telling The Hill earlier this year that it is “the largest PAC contributor to Democratic candidates.” “Our political action committee supports the Democratic leadership and nearly half of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, Black Caucus and Hispanic Caucus,” the group said in a statement. “In addition, our affiliated super PAC supported a number of Democratic progressive candidates in the last election cycle, who defeated anti-Israel candidates in their primary, won their general election, and are currently serving in Congress. We believe that it is entirely consistent with progressive values to stand with the Jewish state.”
Nobody Would Vote For Any Of This Bullshit Without Extensive Manipulation - Caitlin Johnstone -- One of the biggest lies we are sold in western politics is that election results paint an accurate picture of what the public truly wants. We are told that candidates who promote peace and economic justice lose elections because their platforms are unpopular with the wider public, as though the people are organically coming into worldviews which support poverty, inequality, war and militarism all on their own. “Socialism just isn’t popular!” we are told, as though we don’t live under a capitalist empire that has spent generations violently stomping out socialism wherever it pops up and brainwashing the public into despising socialism at home. “Americans just don’t care that much about foreign policy,” we’re told, as though Americans aren’t being propagandized to the gills every day of their lives into seeing their government’s bloodthirsty warmongering as normal and acceptable. It is a well-documented fact that under the western empire not only are our political systems aggressively manipulated by the rich and powerful for the benefit of the rich and powerful, but public opinion is as well. Insane systems which rely on exploitation, injustice, ecocide, militarism and war are actively normalized via mass-scale psychological manipulation, and we are then presented with candidates and platforms which support those systems and told that anything else is fringe commie extremism. If left to their own devices nobody would organically come to the conclusion that there should be people living on the streets while investment properties are left empty, that normal people should be working two jobs to feed and house their families while Machiavellian plutocrats amass billions of dollars, that we should be destroying the ecosystem we depend on for survival to increase profits for corporate shareholders, or that we should be encircling the planet with war machinery to terrorize and murder any population on earth who disobeys the dictates of Washington. But that’s what our elections serve us up year after year, decade after decade — because no part of this is organic. So now we’re seeing a US election where two tyrannical capitalist warmongers are squaring off against each other, appealing to the votes of America’s two mainstream political factions which are only mainstream because vast fortunes have been poured into propaganda manipulations to make them mainstream. Then you’ve got candidates like Jill Stein saying normal, sane and common sense things about peace and justice while being framed as an extremist lunatic by the consent manufacturers of the mainstream press. And when Stein loses in this aggressively manipulated information environment within this aggressively manipulated electoral system, it will be framed as evidence that her politics were seen as too fringe and kooky for the mainstream public. Whenever I talk about this dynamic during a high-profile election season I am always inundated with a deluge of knee jerk point-missers asking “Well who SHOULD we vote for then??”, which is kind of like Morpheus telling Neo he’s been living his whole life in the matrix and Neo going, “Okay but how do I get my boss to give me a raise in my cubicle job where I work?” It doesn’t matter, Neo. The whole thing’s an illusion. What matters is getting people to open their eyes to this reality so that real meaningful action can be taken. If you’re having a dream about being chased by a lynch mob, your only concern is making sure your own interests win out over the interests of the mob. When you wake up from the dream, you don’t spend the rest of your day wondering how you’re going to get away from the mob. You concern yourself with your real material interests in your waking life. That’s what this should be like. If you really grasp what’s being pointed to here, you won’t keep getting swept up in the mass psychosis of election season hysteria, and party politics won’t have any gravitational pull on your mind. Instead, your focus will be on helping people to realize that this is all a carefully manufactured illusion, because until enough of us are awake to the real world, there’ll be no chance of using the power of our numbers to overthrow the tyrants who’ve been pulling the wool over our eyes this entire time.
DOJ says Hunter Biden work with Romanian businessmen designed to skirt US law -Special counsel David Weiss accused Hunter Biden of working for a Romanian businessman in an arrangement designed to skirt U.S. laws on foreign lobbying and avoid any “political ramifications” for his father.The allegation — one GOP lawmakers have long fixated on — comes as part of a broader battle by Hunter Biden to bar prosecutors in the case over his alleged failure to pay taxes from using evidence detailing his work for Gabriel Popoviciu.That Hunter Biden had worked with Popoviciu has been publicly reported for years, but the details of the arrangement as described in the Justice Department’s filing on Wednesday provided new insight into the alleged arrangement – including an allegation that the deal was structured to avoid the filings required under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA).Biden has not been charged with violating FARA in the broader tax case, much to the chagrin of GOP lawmakers who have argued his work for numerous foreign entities amounted to lobbying. And prosecutors in the filing do not assert that Hunter Biden violated the foreign lobbying law. Rather, they argue the details of the deal show Biden’s “state of mind and intent during the relevant tax years charged in the indictment.”The filing says Hunter Biden and an unnamed business associate arranged for Popoviciu to pay the business partner’s entity, who “would pass approximately 1/3 to the defendant as his compensation.” All this was done, Weiss said, because “Business Associate 1 and the defendant were concerned that lobbying work might cause political ramifications for the defendant’s father.” The goal for Popoviciu was “to attempt to influence U.S. government agencies to investigate the Romanian investigation” into him, paying Hunter Biden and his associate over $3 million to do so.The filing also includes another detail also aligned with Republican complaints about Hunter Biden’s work, attacking his deal with Chinese energy company CEFC and Ukrainian energy company Burisma.“The evidence will show the defendant performed almost no work in exchange for the millions of dollars he received from these entities,” the filing states.The DOJ filing, though, does not implicate President Biden in any of Hunter Biden’s activities.But House Republicans, who have opened an impeachment inquiry into President Biden over his family’s foreign business dealings, responded to the filing by touting their longtime probes into alleged “influence peddling,” with a focus on Hunter Biden. The House Judiciary Committee responded with a two-word post on the social media site X: “Told ya.”“The Biden family’s influence peddling schemes in Romania were documented in @GOPoversight’s bank records memorandum in May 2023,” House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) posted on X in response to the filing.“Bank records don’t lie. The mainstream media took their marching orders from the Biden White House & turned a blind eye to public corruption,” Comer said.In a memorandum on Biden family bank records released last year, the House Oversight Republicans detailed funds transferred between Romanian sources and Biden family members and business associates, raising concern about the arrangement occurring as then-Vice President Biden advocated for anti-corruption policies in Romania. The committee said it was “investigating Hunter Biden and his business associates’ engagement with U.S. government officials on behalf of Popoviciu.”The House Oversight, Judiciary, and Ways and Means committees interviewed Rob Walker, a Hunter Biden business associate who worked with Hunter Biden and Popoviciu, in January. Popoviciu, described in court records only as “G.P.” was sentenced to seven years in prison in 2017 after being convicted of real estate fraud, but that judgment was vacated by a Romanian court last year.Hunter Biden has filed a series of motions seeking to block evidence he sees as unrelated to a case focused on his failure to pay taxes, arguing they have at best “marginal” value and risk biasing the jury.“The defendant did receive compensation from a foreign principal to attempt to influence U.S. policy and public opinion, as alleged in the indictment, and this evidence is relevant,” Weiss wrote.Hunter Biden has also sought to block Weiss from using evidence related to what the prosecutor has deemed his “extravagant lifestyle.”The indictment filed late last year was notable in its heavy focus on details about Hunter Biden’s personal life, not shying away from details about his drug use or hiring of escorts, both of which the president has acknowledged in his memoir.“Evidence showing the extent of the defendant’s self-indulgent daily spending on opulent, gratuitous expenditures would greatly help the jury understand his motive to commit the tax crimes charged in the indictment,” Weiss wrote.
Elon Musk files new lawsuit against OpenAI, Sam Altman -Elon Musk filed a new lawsuit against OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman on Monday, reviving a previous legal effort against the massive artificial intelligence (AI) company he helped found.The new federal suit claims Altman and fellow co-founder Greg Brockman breached the company’s founding mission, and “assiduously manipulated Musk into co-founding their spurious non-profit venture” by promising it would create safe and transparent AI technology while actually doing the opposite.Musk’s attorneys claimed Altman ran a “long con” on the tech billionaire in the suit, describing “perfidy and deceit” of “Shakespearean proportions.”Those echo Musk’s claims in the previous lawsuit against the company, dropped in June without explanation.Musk’s attorney Marc Toberoff told The New York Times this second attempt is “a much more forceful lawsuit,” alleging that OpenAI broke federal racketeering laws in an attempt to defraud Musk when he left the company in 2018.The suit also challenges Microsoft’s massive investment in the firm’s for-profit subsidiary, claiming its deal with the tech giant also goes against the company’s founding mission by barring it from making its technology open source.OpenAI has previously brushed off Musk’s allegations, pointing to company emails from shortly before Musk left the company in 2018, where he argues that it should become a commercial subsidiary of Tesla. Executives at OpenAI said in an internal memo when the first suit was filed that the claims may have been sparked by a jealousy for missing out on the company’s recent success. Musk now owns a separate AI company called xAI, alongside his ventures as the leader of the social platform X, Tesla and space firm SpaceX.
Dow plunges more than 1,000 points in global market selloff - Global markets slid Monday as fears of a slowing U.S. economy sparked investor angst, resulting in some of the most intense volatility Wall Street has seen in years. Investors were rattled by a trickle of disappointing economic data, including last week’s jobs report, which saw the U.S. unemployment rate rise to 4.3 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed nearly 1,034 points, or 2.6 percent, to close at 38,703. The broader S&P 500 erased 3.0 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 3.4 percent as wariness around AI led investors to turn away from big names such as Nvidia and Microsoft. Get a curated selection of 10 of our best stories in your inbox every weekend. The Wall Street turbulence followed unease in overseas trading that sent Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index to its biggest single-day drop on record. Cryptocurrencies also plunged, with bitcoin moving nearly 11 percent lower. Analysts said the sell-off is a reaction to worrisome economic data last week that moved the Nasdaq into correction territory on Friday after nearly a year of gains. Adding to the volatility is a spate of bad financial results from the tech sector and currency gyrations abroad. Still, even with the recent losses, the three major U.S. indexes remain positive for the year.
Schwab, Fidelity, other online trading brokerages appear to go dark during huge market sell-off (AP) — Several online brokerage firms including Charles Schwab, Fidelity and Vanguard appeared to be down for thousands of users early Monday during one of the biggest stock markets sell-offs of 2024.User reports appeared to peak around and just before 10 a.m. ET, data from outage tracker Downdectector shows. Some frustrated customers online said that they were unable to log in or access their account balances.“Due to a technical issue, some clients may have difficulty logging in to Schwab platforms,” Charles Schwab wrote on social media platform X Monday morning. “Please accept our apologies as our teams work to resolve the issue as quickly as possible.” Shortly after 12:30 p.m. ET, Schwab confirmed that the issue had been resolved. A Fidelity spokesperson told The Associated Press via email Monday that the company was aware of some customers experiencing “intermittent issues” earlier in the day, but said that this is now resolved. Vanguard did not immediately return a request for comment. At its peak, Charles Schwab saw nearly 15,000 outage reports from users around 9:50 a.m. ET, per Downdetector. Fidelity and Vanguard saw another 3,800 and 2,900, respectively, closer to 10 a.m. ET. User reports appeared to fall notably for all three platforms about an hour later.
Bitcoin briefly tumbles below $50,000 for the first time since February -Cryptocurrencies tumbled amid a global market sell-off spurred by recession fears. The price of bitcoin was last lower by 8% on Monday at $53,996.70, according to Coin Metrics. At one point, it fell to $49,111.10, its lowest level since Feb. 13. Just seven days prior, on July 20, it climbed as high as $69,982. “Thirty percent slumps, as scary as they are, are par for the course during bull markets and it’s encouraging bitcoin bounced back above $50,000,” said Nexo co-founder Antoni Trenchev. “But make no mistake, we are in a choppy, volatile market environment … the moment to turn bullish will be when bitcoin retakes its 200-day moving average, which typically tells us if we are in a bull or bear market, at $61,500.” Ether dropped 11.44% to $2,432.22, recovering earlier losses that, at one point, erased its year-to-date gain. Crypto stocks went down with bitcoin. Coinbase took a 7% dip, while MicroStrategy slid 9%, cutting earlier losses by more than half. The moves follow a broader market sell-off that began last week, when a weaker-than-anticipated July jobs report renewed investor fears of a recession. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite entered a correction. Japan stocks entered a bear market Monday after plunging more than 12% overnight, its worst one-day sell-off since 1987. Bitcoin has tumbled more than 15% since Saturday. “Until last Wednesday, everybody was thinking that inflation was going down gradually and the economy was relatively strong, so the Fed would start cutting rates with successful soft landing of the economy,” said Yuya Hasegawa, crypto market analyst at Japanese bitcoin exchange Bitbank. “However, July’s U.S. manufacturing PMI and jobs report came in way weaker than the market expected — and now [investors] are worrying about the possibility of recession and dumping risk assets.” “That said … the market’s reaction has been a tad excessive, given there is no absolute evidence that the economy is in recession yet,” he continued. “We will likely see some recoil this week.” On top of economic and geopolitical concerns, crypto investors have been contending with sell pressure from Mt. Gox distributions and decreasing odds of a second Donald Trump presidency in the U.S. Polls on Polymarket, an Ethereum-based prediction market platform, show the gap between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has narrowed significantly since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21. Bitcoin is already down about 17.5% for the month of August, a typically sluggish month for risk assets, and below the $55,000 floor that has supported it for much of the year. If it fails to recover, it could be its worst month since June 2022, when it lost about 37%. Bitcoin is still holding on to a year-to-date gain of 27%, but the current turmoil in crypto prices has investors doubting the validity of the coin’s narrative as a hedge against uncertainty. “The bitcoin as a hedge narrative is misleading,” Hasegawa said. “It does work as a hedge against fiat currency but it still is a risk asset. In the long run, I believe it is better to hold bitcoin than any fiat currencies, but investors tend to sell high-volatility assets first when risk arises.”
Bitcoin bounces back after market jitters: Arthur Hayes forecasts $1 million - The price of bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, briefly jumped above $62,000 on Friday morning, a marked upturn for a cryptocurrency that plunged below $50,000 on Monday as global markets were jolted by worries over a possible global recession.The surge in bitcoin's performance was owed to better-than-expected U.S. unemployment insurance figures that were released this week. According to the U.S. Labor Department, last week only saw 233,000 unemployment claims, despite economist projections that the number would be higher.Bitcoin also saw at least $91 billion in traded in trades, according to recentdata from Coinglass.Despite Goldman Sachs increasing its U.S. recession forecast in 2025 to 25% from 15%, many analysts believe Monday’s jittery market might have been an overreaction, with the Federal Reserve likely to prop up the economy next month through interest rate cuts.Moreover, crypto entrepreneur and BitMEX’s ex-CEO Arthur Hayes predicts that bitcoin might even spike all the way up to $1 million during the current market cycle.“The bitcoin price in this cycle is going to go very, very high,” Hayes told DL News recently. “Hundreds of thousands of dollars, maybe $1 million.”
Trump Suggests Paying off $35 Trillion National Debt With Bitcoin — Wants US to Be Leader in Crypto – Former U.S. President Donald Trump emphasized the importance of the U.S. leading in cryptocurrency, suggesting that the government could pay off its $35 trillion national debt with bitcoin. He described crypto as “a different form of currency” that is already “prominent” and “massive,” stating that “it’s going to end up benefiting the country.Former U.S. President and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump discussed cryptocurrency in an interview with Fox Business on Friday. He was asked how he plans to enhance the prominence of crypto in the U.S. following his recent promises at a bitcoin conference.“You have to understand about crypto. Crypto is a very interesting thing, very high level in certain ways, intellectually very high level,” Trump began. He reiterated his stance that if the U.S. doesn’t embrace crypto, China and other countries will. “So we might as well be at the forefront,” he opined.“There are people in crypto that are very, very smart people who do love our country, and they think it’s good,” Trump noted, adding: Who knows, maybe we’ll pay off our $35 trillion. Hand them a little crypto check … hand them a little bitcoin and wipe out our $35 trillion.The former president was pressed with the question: “How do you want it to be more prominent in America? How will that work?” Trump replied: “Oh, it’s going to work easily. It’s already prominent.” He continued: “It’s moving along. It’s very loosely regulated. That’s one of the reasons it’s moving along.”He emphasized the importance of the U.S. embracing crypto to avoid falling behind other countries. “We have the people that are the leaders” in the crypto field, Trump noted, adding: “I know some of them. They’re very smart.” He stressed: “And if we don’t embrace it, other countries are going to embrace it. Other countries will anyway, but we can be the leader, and we might as well be the leader.”Trump pointed out that the market cap for crypto is already bigger than many companies and countries. “It’s a massive thing already,” he explained, stating: It is a different form of a currency, and it’s going to end up benefiting the country. The former president also criticized the Biden administration’s attempts to shut down crypto, questioning Biden’s understanding and capability to do so, and suggesting that Biden doesn’t grasp what crypto truly is.FBI Issues Urgent Warning About New Cryptocurrency Scam - The FBI is warning everyone about a Bitcoin scam and it could impact you.Recently, the FBI issued a warning about a new crime trend. The trend is called 'jugging' and it is pretty scary.People are robbing others in parking lots of ATMS, banks and the like hoping to steal big stacks of cash.This most recent warning isn't as scary as jugging but you should be just as aware of it, because it impacts your wallet in another way.The FBI is warning residents of Minnesota and Wisconsin to be aware of this cryptocurrency scam that has been reported. So how does it work?The FBI says scammers are contacting people by calling or texting them and posing as an employee of a crypto exchange. From there, scammers say there is a problem with your account and someone is trying to get into it. This causes panic, of course, and the person on the other end of the line hands over their password information so the scammer can 'save' their account from being hacked.We all know what happens next: the scammer drains your account and steals your digital currency. Just like with any other scam, hang up if you get a call like this.
Ripple's $125 million fine brings little clarity to crypto | A federal court in Manhattan ordered Ripple to pay a $125 million fine for selling unregistered securities to institutional investors. Wednesday's ruling is a fraction of the $2 billion the Securities and Exchange Commission asked for in the lawsuit it brought against the crypto company in 2020. Unless the SEC appeals, the ruling closes out the much-watched court case. But it leaves unanswered the many questions about whether cryptocurrencies are securities and which types of cryptocurrency activities are considered legal.The case is relevant to the financial services industry because in its early days, several banks signed up to partner with Ripple, piloted its cross-border payment software and intended to use XRP as a mechanism to transfer payments to banks in other countries without having to go through the Swift network and maintain balances at "de nostro" accounts at those counterparties. Those banks have all quietly disengaged from Ripple.In its 2020 complaint, the SEC said Ripple and its executives had sold 14.6 billion units of XRP for more than $1.38 billion to fund the company's operations and acquire personal wealth without registering their sales of XRP with the SEC. The SEC sought to permanently ban Ripple and its leaders from selling unregistered XRP tokens, to make the defendants "disgorge all ill-gotten gains" from the transactions and pay unspecified civil money penalties.In a ruling on the case last year, Judge Analisa Torres said Ripple's sales of its XRP token to institutional investors constituted a security investment contract — a win for the SEC and the reason for the $125 million fine. But the judge also said that when ordinary investors buy XRP on the secondary market through crypto exchanges, that trading activity does not constitute security trading. In her statement, Torres said Ripple cannot issue any more XRP without registering it with the SEC. However, there's a lot of XRP out there. Ripple's founders initially created 100 billion XRP, some of which they gifted to themselves and to the company, and some of which they offer for sale on a monthly basis. "If they want to go to the market and raise and sell more XRP to investors, they would have to register with the SEC, but it doesn't seem like they're going to do that anymore," said Robert Le, crypto analyst at Pitchbook. In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse positioned the judge's decision as a win for his company. "The SEC asked for $2B, and the Court reduced their demand by ~94% recognizing that they had overplayed their hand," he wrote. "We respect the Court's decision and have clarity to continue growing our company. This is a victory for Ripple, the industry and the rule of law. The SEC's headwinds against the whole of the XRP community are gone."But the SEC also felt it won. A spokeswoman noted the court granted the SEC's motion for remedies including an injunction barring Ripple from committing additional violations of securities laws. The fine was more than 12 times the amount Ripple suggested.
Ripple’s X-Border Business May Be Collateral Damage in SEC Suit --One of the longest running legal cases impacting crypto’s regulatory future is potentially nearing resolution.The case, between cryptocurrency company Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), centers around whether Ripple’s XRP token is a security and has gone throughseveral iterations since its 2020 start.On Wednesday (Aug. 7), the scales of justice fell partly in favor of Ripple with the companyordered by a federal judge to pay a civil penalty of $125 million, along with an injunction against future securities law violations.The SEC was seeking fines and penalties totaling $2 billion.“The SEC asked for $2B, and the Court reduced their demand by ~94% recognizing that they had overplayed their hand,” Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said in a Wednesday post on X. Garlinghouse added that the court’s ruling was “a victory for Ripple, the industry and the rule of law” and that “the SEC’s headwinds against the whole of the XRP community are gone.”Many in the digital asset space have been watching closely how the Ripple case has been playing out due to its broader implications for the SEC’s regulatory power over crypto. And the judge’s decision did little to shed further clarity over the ultimate question foundational to the SEC’s suit: whether crypto assets are securities.The court ruling also puts the future of the use of Ripple’s XRP token for cross-border payments, at least by U.S. entities, in question.Since the filing of the first SEC suit against Ripple Dec. 22, 2020, crypto firms have been waiting in the wings for a final ruling on whether digital assets are, or are not, securities.While they wait, they’ve continued selling and minting cryptocurrencies regardless.As Amias Gerety, Partner at QED Investors, told PYMNTS last summer, “business as usual” can be the best choice for embattled crypto players because it could support their legal posture.Gerety also added that if the SEC were to eventually win in court, the classification of crypto tokens as securities wouldn’t destroy the digital asset industry in the U.S.But Ripple’s continued sale of its XRP token while the SEC suit was ongoing without a resolution drew comment from the Judge overseeing the case.“To be clear, the Court does not today hold that Ripple’s post-Complaint sales have violated Section 5.5,” reads Wednesday’s legal decision. “Rather, the Court finds that Ripple’s willingness to push the boundaries of the Order evinces a likelihood that it will eventually (if it has not already) cross the line. On balance, the Court finds that there is a reasonable probability of future violations, meriting the issuance of an injunction.”And the injunction means that while legally per the decision XRP is “little more than an alphanumeric cryptographic sequence” and not itself a security, Ripple cannot continue selling the token to U.S. accredited investors.
Ripple Begins Test for Ripple USD Stablecoin on Ethereum and XRP Ledger -Ripple, the enterprise-focused blockchain service closely related to the XRP Ledger (XRP), said on Friday that it begun testing its stablecoin on the Ethereum (ETH) mainnet and XRP Ledger."Ripple USD is currently in its beta phase and is being rigorously tested by our enterprise partners," the company said in a blog post. "This phase is crucial for ensuring that the stablecoin meets the highest standards of security, efficiency, and reliability before it becomes widely available, and after receipt of regulatory approval."The announcement came after Ripple laid out its plans in April to enter the rapidly growing stablecoin market with its own U.S. dollar-pegged token. Stablecoins are a $160 billion market currently and a key piece of infrastructure in the crypto economy used for trading and payments on blockchains. The market is currently dominated by the two largest stablecoins, Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC. Broker Bernstein forecasted that the market could grow to $2.8 trillion by 2028.Ripple USD (RLUSD) is backed by short term U.S. Treasuries, dollar deposits and cash equivalents. The reserves will be audited by a third-party accounting firm, and Ripple plans to report monthly attestations, the blog post said.The company said that it will offer both RLUSD and XRP for global payments services to clients. The stablecoin isn't tradeable yet as its hasn't received regulatory approval, Ripple said.
U.K. central bank, BIS measure stablecoins' fiscal health -- The reserves that back stablecoins are often the subject of controversy over concerns that the assets are inadequate to cover losses or include risky investments such as commercial paper.The Bank of England and the Bank for International Settlements have built a tool that can track stablecoins and their reserves. The system is part of Project Pyxtrial, a year-old initiative at BofE and the BIS Innovation Hub to monitor stablecoin balance sheets.The tool includes a digital pipeline that accrues data and feeds that information into an analytics engine to measure the stablecoin's reserve assets. System components include application programming interfaces that enable government agencies such as regulators to access Pyxtrial's technology.The system's data modeling and dashboard are modular and designed to be reusable to monitor different stablecoins or other non-stablecoin digital payment products that are backed with real-world assets. The project comes as regulators push for rules requiring stablecoins to be prepared to pay their holders in full in the event of a bankruptcy or other economic problem.In Switzerland, the Financial Supervisory Authority recently issued guidance for stablecoin banks that work with bank issuers. The rules describe how consumers or investors can redeem their funds.To protect investors from the volatility of cryptocurrency, stablecoins are backed by reserves of traditional currency such as U.S. dollars or euros (but often other assets), thus making stablecoins a potential fit for retail payments.Stablecoin issuers usually make periodic disclosures of the makeup of their reserves and whether the stablecoin is a 1:1 ratio between its market capitalization and the value of its backing assets. The new regulations in Europe tighten those disclosure requirements.
Putin Signs Law Legalizing Cryptocurrency Mining in Russia - Russian President Vladimir Putin has officially signed a law that legalizes cryptocurrency mining in Russia. According to a report by Russian news agency TASS, the law introduces several key concepts, including digital currency mining, mining pools, and mining infrastructure operators. Mining activities are now recognized by Russia as part of turnover rather than the issuance of digital currency.The new legislation specifies that only Russian legal entities and individual entrepreneurs registered with the government will be allowed to engage in cryptocurrency mining. However, individual miners can participate without registration, provided their energy consumption remains within government-set limits.Additionally, the law permits the trading of foreign digital financial assets on Russian blockchain platforms. However, the Bank of Russia retains the authority to ban the placement of certain assets if they are deemed a threat to the country’s financial stability.According to TASS, during a recent government meeting, President Putin emphasized Russia needs "to seize the moment" in establishing a legal framework for digital currencies. He highlighted the potential of digital currencies to contribute to Russia's economic development, stressing the need for proper regulation and infrastructure.
How Chinese Traders & Miners Got Around China's Crypto Ban Chinese investors are finding innovative ways to tap into the digital assets markets and participate in some of the year’s most profitable trends despite Beijing’s ban on cryptocurrency trading.The government has banned crypto amid a blaze of publicity numerous times, including a 2013 ban on banks dealing in crypto, a 2017 ban on initial coin offerings and exchanges, followed by a trading and mining ban in 2021. Despite this, accessing cryptocurrencies in the mainland isn’t that difficult, pseudonymous investor Lowell tells Magazine.Lowell is a recent university graduate who describes herself as a full-time cryptocurrency trader. She had the option to pursue a career in her field of study but says that a “normal” job cannot match the profits she can make with crypto.China’s cryptocurrency bans aren’t always crystal clear or effective. Though crypto trading and businesses are prohibited, there are channels for investors to partake in the global market.Local traders say they buy and sell their cryptocurrencies to other investors via peer-to-peer trading on centralized exchanges like OKX and Binance. While China’s Great Firewall prohibits access, savvy users with VPNs can access the websites and apps they need.Investors also seek lucrative opportunities in borderless DeFi, like using bots or hiring students to farm airdrops which has become a quasi-industry for some. As it happens, crypto tokens are not themselves illegal in China, Robin Hui Huang, a law professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong tells Magazine. Exchanging them also falls into a gray area.“People can hold cryptos in China. They can also exchange cryptos for other properties, but such exchanges are not protected by law, that is, if the other party breaches the contract, no legal protection is available.”While the law does not protect these transactions, it also does not ban them. Therefore, private individuals can exchange cryptocurrencies for other properties if they mutually agree to do so and fulfill their commitments, Huang adds.
FTX ordered to pay $12.7B to customers after Sam Bankman-Fried's massive fraud --A US court has ordered bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX to pay $12.7 billion in relief to its customers, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Thursday.FTX drew customers in with “an illusion that it was a safe and secure place to access crypto markets,” then misappropriated their customer deposits to make its own risky investments, CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam said in a statement.The repayment order implements a settlement between the CFTC and the bankrupt crypto exchange, which has committed to a bankruptcy liquidation that will repay customers whose deposits were locked during its late 2022 collapse.FTX has said that its customers will receive 100% recovery on their claims against the company, based on the value of their accounts at the time the company filed for bankruptcy.The CFTC agreement resolves a potential roadblock to that repayment, ensuring that the government’s lawsuit against FTX will not reduce the funds available to its customers. The CFTC agreed not to collect any payment from FTX until all its customers are repaid, with interest.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission orders FTX to pay $12.7M to fraud victims --FTX will pay $8.7 million in restitution and another $4 million to compensate victims of the “massive fraudulent scheme” orchestrated by Sam Bankman-Fried. Bankman-Fried, who founded FTX and Alameda, was convicted late last year on federal fraud and conspiracy charges related to his role in FTX’s collapse. He was sentenced to 25 years in prison in March. “Not only is this multi-billion dollar recovery for victims the largest such recovery in CFTC history, we achieved it with remarkable speed,” CFTC enforcement division director Ian McGinley said in a statement Thursday. “FTX’s massive fraud collapsed 21 months ago and in that time the CFTC investigated, filed a complaint, and achieved what many thought was impossible at the time of the collapse — a resolution to compensate victims for the losses they suffered,” he added. Following Thursday’s court order, CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam emphasized the need for legislation on digital assets, like crypto, to “fill regulatory gaps.”“As I have been saying for years, this is just the tip of the iceberg,” Behnam said in a statement. “In the absence of digital asset legislation to fill regulatory gaps, entities will continue to operate in the shadows without these basic tools of sound regulation, sharpening their deceptive practices and continuing to dupe customers.”
Banks want more fintechs regulated under CFPB open banking rule --Banks remain concerned about the security risks and liability from unregulated fintechs and data aggregators when consumers gain control over their financial data under the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's data access rule.Banks and some data aggregators have asked the CFPB for an extended two-year timeframe to comply with the CFPB's final rule on personal financial data rights. The CFPB has received more than 11,000 comment letters on its proposed open banking rule — known in the industry simply as "1033" for its section of the Dodd-Frank Act — which is expected to be finalized in October. The CFPB's proposal would require financial institutions that offer checking accounts, prepaid cards, credit cards and digital wallets to allow customers to share their data safely with, or transfer the information to, another provider such as a fintech company or data aggregator. Banks already have built applications that allow more than 50 million consumers to share their bank transaction data with third-party fintechs and data aggregators. All the parties in the data sharing ecosystem will have to update public-facing websites, ensure that data is provided in an as-yet unestablished standardized format and enable support for data elements — some which, like bill payment data, are not currently shared.Many banks and experts have been asking the CFPB to initiate a larger participant rule to bring the largest data aggregators under the bureau's supervision.CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in recent testimony before the House Financial Services Committee that data aggregators currently are subject to supervision through the CFPB's existing authorities based on their risk determination and as larger participants in the consumer reporting market. But banks still want a larger participant rule to sweep in more nonbanks."Bringing at least some fintechs under CFPB supervision affords a necessary regulatory lever to ensure compliance," said Ryan Miller, vice president of innovation policy and senior counsel at the American Bankers Association, in a comment letter. "However, it does not cover the entire ecosystem and only accentuates the supervisory gap for the vast majority of fintechs." The massive scope and technological complexity of the rule caused the CFPB to break it down into at least two parts so far. In June, the bureau finalized part of its open banking rule, establishing criteria for standard-setting bodies in the space.The process of applying to become a standard-setting body and getting accepted by the CFPB will take time. Four bank trade groups said the scope and technological difficulty of the rule provide support for extending the compliance deadline. Because so many companies will be affected by the final rule, banks and some data aggregators are citing potential disruptions to consumers as a reason for the bureau to give them more time.
Bank allies say FDIC brokered deposit plan reflects outdated thinking — Industry experts are raising concerns about a recent Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. proposal that would expand the definition of brokered deposits — sometimes known as "hot money" — and likely discourage banks from holding them. The proposal largely reverses a 2020 Trump-era FDIC rule that narrowed the definition of brokered deposits as well as modestly broadening the initial scope to include more deposit arrangements regulated as brokered deposits.Other key changes in the proposal include redefining "deposit broker" to include entities receiving fees for deposit placements, revising the primary purpose exception criteria introducing a new broker-dealer sweep exception. The proposal also updates the application process for primary purpose exceptions, requiring that insured depository institutions themselves submit applications, rather than their nonbank partners. Under the most recent 2020 rule, a broker is exempt if less than 25% of its assets under administration for customers are placed with depository institutions. The proposal would lower that threshold to 10%, reducing the number of intermediaries who would qualify for the exception.The banking industry has voiced concern with the proposal. Rob Nichols, president and CEO of the American Bankers Association, called the measures punitive and unjustified. "This sweeping measure would restrict access to sources of liquidity while penalizing banks for pursuing funding sources that enable them to meet the needs of their communities," Nichols said in a statement after the proposal's unveiling. "Given the pending change in FDIC leadership, we question the need to advance an array of unrelated regulatory changes — with unusually short comment periods — that clearly lack consensus support within the agency." Congress first directed bank regulators to crack down on brokered deposits in 1989 with the passage of the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act — often abbreviated as FIRREA. Matthew Bornfreund of Troutman Pepper says such "hot money" — as it was later dubbed — was viewed by skeptics as one of the major causes of the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s. Prior to the widespread adoption of the internet, deposit brokers offered to take consumer deposits and "shop" them around from bank to bank, chasing the highest interest rate possible, he said."At the time, it wasn't really possible for an individual depositor to shop around the country to find the highest interest rates," Bornfreund said. "Now you just go online and you can deposit the money wherever you want, anywhere in the country, anytime." FIRREA established a definition of deposit brokers and restricted banks from receiving brokered deposits if they were less-than-well-capitalized. Those deemed adequately but not well-capitalized could receive brokered deposits with a waiver approved by the FDIC. The statute did not explicitly define brokered deposit, but rather classified deposits placed by deposit brokers as brokered. "From '89 all the way through 2020 the FDIC determined that a deposit group was based on a series of interpretations and guidance that they issued … and if you had a question of whether or not your deposits were broker deposits, you had to check against these various opinions," he said. "The purpose of the 2020 rulemaking was to give some very clear guidance as to what actually is a deposit broker."The 2020 rule included carve-outs beneficial to third parties partnering with banks. A major carve-out was the exemption from definition of brokered for "exclusive deposit placement arrangements." Although not explicitly named in the rule, this carve-out defines a deposit broker as someone working with more than one bank. Therefore, under the 2020 standard, if a party worked with only one bank, they escape the deposit broker classification under the 2020 rule."That's now been changed in the [recent] proposal," said Bornfreund. "From 'more than one bank' to 'one or more banks' — essentially getting rid of the whole exception."
BankThink: Uninsured deposits, not brokered deposits, led to 2023 bank failures | American Banker -- The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank sent shock waves through the financial world last year, prompting the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation board, by a 3-2 vote, to recently propose further restrictions on brokered deposits. Unfortunately, the proposal overlooks clear facts: These bank failures resulted not from brokered deposits but from very large uninsured deposits; risky and unsound bank business strategies; and sorely lacking regulatory oversight. It's past time to take a fresh look at the stability of bank funding and not restrict sources of stable deposits for thousands of community banks, which provide essential products and services to American businesses and families.The failures of these regional banks were clearly due to their excessive concentrations of volatile, short-term uninsured deposits, which were primarily invested by the banks in illiquid long-term fixed-rate assets. These strategic decisions by the banks' management and their boards were palpably deficient, as was prudential oversight by federal and state regulators. When panic set in after the Fed belatedly raised interest rates to combat inflation, these large depositors quickly withdrew their funds, precipitating liquidity crises. So, the runs on the banks were not caused by brokered deposits but by the sheer volume and concentrations of uninsured deposits that were vulnerable to sudden withdrawal.Brokered deposits came to the fore in the 1980s during the worst banking crisis since the Great Depression. I was chairman of the FDIC, Paul Volcker was chairman of the Federal Reserve and Don Regan was secretary of the Treasury. Together, we oversaw some 3,000 bank and thrift failures, including scores of the largest banks and thrifts in the nation, plus the bankruptcy of the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation, which cost taxpayers some $150 billion. Massive inflation forced the dismantling of interest rate controls on deposits of $100,000 and over. Large Wall Street firms pounced on the opportunity to acquire vast amounts of dollars and bid them out to deeply troubled banks and thrifts, which bid whatever amount necessary to obtain the funds and loan them to highly risky borrowers at even higher prices.The FDIC first reacted by adopting a regulation limiting deposit insurance to $100,000 per broker instead of $100,000 for each customer of the broker. When the deposit brokers sued the FDIC and won, the FDIC countered with a regulation placing strict limits and oversight on the volume of brokered deposits a bank or thrift could purchase — and prohibiting purchases by banks and thrifts deemed to be in troubled condition. Those measures significantly curtailed the problems, but not until after brokered deposits had already bankrupted the FSLIC.In the end, we developed the regulatory tools to keep brokered deposits under control and today they are a very important and safe source of funding, particularly in their support of community banking. While this banking crisis is long gone, the brokered deposit rules remain in place.
Fed dings top midsize bank over money laundering concerns -One of the top midsize banks in the country has drawn the ire of federal regulators over deficiencies related to its screening processes for money laundering and sanctions compliance. The Federal Reserve Board issued an enforcement action against Malvern, Pa.-based Customers Bank this week, citing the $22 billion-asset bank and its holding company for insufficient practices related to digital assets and instant payments products.The regulatory action, released Thursday, noted deficiencies related to anti-money-laundering rules, the Bank Secrecy Act and regulations set forth by the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Asset Control, which oversees the government's sanctions regime. Customers Bancorp was ranked the No. 1 bank in the $10 billion to $50 billion category of American Banker's recently released top performing banks list of 2024 after posting a three-year return on average equity of 19.5% between 2021 and 2023 and a net interest margin of 3.29%.A representative for the bank did not immediately respond to requests for comment.Customers Bank offers consumer, small business and commercial product lines, but the enforcement action calls out its "banking services to digital asset customers" and its Consumer Bank Instant Token network, a blockchain-based instant payments service that caters to cryptocurrency exchanges such as Coinbase, Gemini and Kraken.The Fed and other regulators have broadly taken a skeptical view of banks engaging with the crypto sector since the fall of 2022, which saw the collapse of the FTX exchange and other related entities. The ripple effects of that episode contributed to the elective winddown of the crypto-focused Silvergate Bank, which in turn fueled the bank runs that led to the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and other large regionals during spring of 2023. But crypto industry participants say the government's approach to their sector amounts to a debanking effort.The enforcement action against Customers Bank does not list specific violations, as is typical of such announcements. It notes the concerns arose during the most recent examination of the bank by supervisors from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The document states that the bank has taken steps to improve its anti-money-laundering and Bank Secrecy Act, or AML/BSA, compliance since that inspection.As a result of the enforcement action, the bank has agreed to make oversight changes related to AML/BSA and OFAC compliance, including at the board level. It has also pledged to improve its process around reviewing transactions as well as flagging and reporting suspicious activities.
Morgan Stanley latest to disclose SEC inquiries over 'cash sweeps' -- Morgan Stanley is among a handful of firms being sued in federal court over allegations that it has failed to ensure it was obtaining adequate returns on cash investors hold in advisory and brokerage accounts. On Monday, Morgan Stanley disclosed in a quarterly report that it has also been responding since April "to requests for information from the ... SEC regarding advisory account cash balances swept to affiliate bank deposit programs". The term "cash sweeps" refers to firms' practice of taking uninvested cash in advisory and brokerage accounts and moving it to banks where it can be lent out at relatively high rates of interest. The lawsuits faced by Morgan Stanley and other wealth managers accuse them of keeping most of the loan returns for themselves and allowing relatively little to flow back to clients.Beyond Morgan Stanley, Bank of America used its own filing on July 30 to list "the rates paid on invested cash in investment advisory accounts that is swept into interest-paying bank deposits" as a possible regulatory risk. And Wells Fargo disclosed in October that its sweeps policies are under Securities and Exchange Commission scrutiny. Wells reported in a quarterly filing last week that it's nearing a resolution with the SEC.A Morgan Stanley spokesperson declined to comment on the SEC's inquiry. In an earnings call last month, Chief Financial Officer Sharon Yeshaya announced the firm was making changes to its cash sweeps policies but declined to say if those were coming in response to regulatory scrutiny. Instead, she attributed the modifications to "competitive dynamics." A spokesperson later confirmed reports that the firm is raising its returns to 2% for clients with $250,000 or more in certain sweeps accounts. Morgan Stanley now pays as low as 0.01% on sweeps holdings. Both Wells and Bank of America have also announced modifications to their sweeps policies. Wells estimated while reporting its second quarter earnings that the change will cost it $350 million this year.Analysts are anxious to learn if other firms could see similar hits to their bottom lines, especially if they are pressured by regulators into making adjustments. Analyst Steven Chubak of Wolfe Research wrote in a report for the week of July 22 that he and his team think the changes at Wells, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America were driven at least in part by regulatory scrutiny.Now there are concerns, Chubak said, that independent broker-dealers and registered investment advisors could come under similar pressure to raise their cash sweeps rates. Executives at LPL, Stifel, Ameriprise and Raymond James have all recently expressed comfort with their firms' sweeps policies.But Chubak's analysis notes that many retail brokers are more dependent than their wirehouse rivals on cash sweeps returns. In a "worst case scenario," the report estimates that pressure to raise sweeps rates could reduce these firms' earnings per share by as much as 20% to 30%.
USAA agrees to $64M settlement in class action overcharging case -- USAA has agreed to pay $64.2 million to settle a class action lawsuit that alleged it overcharged thousands of military members who were subject to interest rate protections. The proposed settlement, outlined in a federal court filing last week, would resolve allegations that USAA violated the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act and other laws protecting those in the military.The San Antonio-based bank, which caters to military members and veterans, has denied wrongdoing under the agreement. Some 210,000 people could qualify for the payments if the federal judge in North Carolina approves the settlement. In a filing, lawyers for those suing USAA said the deal is "worthy of the court's approval" and looks similar to separate cases where Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase settled for $42 million and $62 million, respectively. While federal regulators had forced USAA to send checks to affected customers, the filing said that the "remediation payments failed to fully compensate" them for their monetary damages. In a statement, USAA said it had already compensated for "errors that may have occurred" and that roughly half of the settlement "is simply reissuing checks we had previously mailed that our members never cashed.""USAA strongly disagrees with the lawsuit allegations, but this settlement is in the best interest of our membership and allows USAA to avoid lengthy and expensive litigation so we can focus on providing exceptional service," the bank said. It also said it goes "beyond minimum requirements" by offering lower interest rates than the law requires. In 2020, regulators fined the bank $85 million after flagging hundreds of violations of the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act in an exam the prior year. They found discriminatory auto lending practices in the bank's next Community Reinvestment Act exam in 2022, giving the bank a "needs to improve" rating for the second year in a row. The lawsuit, filed in 2021, argued that USAA continually failed to reduce the interest rates service members paid on loans to 6% — a low rate they're eligible for when they're preparing for active duty. Lenders can't charge higher interest rates on that loan after military customers leave active duty.For years, USAA was "charging interest rates and fees that were too high, allowing unlawful charges to improperly inflate servicemembers' principal balances and charging compound interest on these inflated balances," the lawsuit said.
Former Nebraska bank president lands in prison for loans to a relative -Jack Poulsen, the former president of the failed Ericson State Bank in Nebraska, was sentenced to 18 months in prison for bank fraud involving loans to a relative that led to the rural bank's collapse, according to the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Nebraska. Poulsen, 71, was sentenced for bank fraud last week by Judge Susan M. Bazis. He pleaded guilty in May to manipulating data on loans to a relative and business-related entities, and concealing information from the bank's board.Poulsen began interfering with loans to a relative in 2015 by advancing bank funds above the approved loan amounts and changing payment due dates and loan maturity dates in the bank's computer system to conceal the loans' past-due status from the bank's board, the U.S. attorney's office said. "The people of Nebraska expect their monies to be safe when they choose to place their trust in local banks," U.S. Attorney Susan T. Lehr said in an Aug. 1 press release announcing Poulsen's sentencing. "No bank officials should be permitted to abuse that trust for the sake of their and their family's personal gain."Poulsen was president of Ericson State Bank from 2010 to 2019, when he was removed from his job after an exam by the Nebraska Department of Banking and Finance revealed that the bank's condition had significantly deteriorated. The state banking agency found that Poulsen made multiple advances to a relative and charged off a portion of the borrowings without completing the appropriate paperwork or seeking approval from the board or loan committee. In a report, the state banking agency attributed the bank's deteriorating financial condition to the bank "being operated without regard for laws, regulations, prudent banking policies, and practices."The state-chartered bank had $110.9 million in assets but failed in 2020 due to large commercial loan losses and poor management practices. Farmers and Merchants Bank of Milford, Nebraska, agreed to assume all of Ericson's $95.2 million in deposits.
BankThink: CFPB warning on whistleblower protection is a positive step | American Banker -More and more U.S. government agencies have taken steps to protect whistleblowers and clear the path for them to help uncover fraud and other misconduct. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau just became the latest to join the trend. On July 24, the agency issued a press release announcing its release of a circular warning companies away from using broad nondisclosure agreements to prevent employees from becoming whistleblowers.CFPB Director Rohit Chopra emphasized the critical role whistleblowers play in detecting wrongdoing when he announced the agency's new initiative: "The law enforcement community uncovers serious wrongdoing by financial firms through whistleblower tips," Chopra said. "Companies should not censor or muzzle employees through nondisclosure agreements that deter whistleblowers from coming forward to law enforcement."Thus, the CFPB joins the many other government agencies concerned with protecting employees' ability to blow the whistle. The Securities and Exchange Commission has been the most aggressive on this front, bringing numerous actions to enforce the agency's Whistleblower Protection Rule, which broadly prohibits companies from taking any action to impede or discourage whistleblowers. In the past year alone, this included actions against JP Morgan Securities, Monolith Resources, D.E. Shaw & Co. and CBRE, Inc. for requiring employees, clients or customers to sign agreements that put up roadblocks or flat out prevent them from reporting potential violations to the SEC.
Judge approves SVB parent bankruptcy plan | American Banker — The former owner of the now defunct Silicon Valley Bank — SVB Financial Group — got the green light from a federal judge to conclude its bankruptcy proceedings, but a significant level of seized deposits remain in limbo. In a filing Friday, Judge Martin Glenn of the Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York approved the distribution of SVB Financial's remaining assets to creditors, allowing the debtor to proceed with its proposed plan. However, the Judge left undecided around $1.93 billion in deposits currently held by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. since the bank's failure. A key issue in the case has been whether the FDIC holds defensive setoff rights, which protect creditors like the FDIC in bankruptcy from having to pay their debts in full to a debtor while awaiting a prorated share of the debtor's debt. Setoff rights aim to prevent one party from paying another when the other party also owes them money. In this case, the judge approved the reorganization plan while maintaining the FDIC's rights for future litigation concerning its setoff rights.Judge Glenn ruled that these rights were not extinguished because section 553 of the Bankruptcy Code preserves setoff rights even in bankruptcy. However, he clarified that the bankruptcy proceedings did not determine the merits of these setoff rights, which should be addressed by the district courts overseeing related disputes.The judge limited the scope of the ruling by stating that the merits of these setoff rights were not being determined in the bankruptcy proceedings and should be addressed in the relevant district courts. "The Court concludes that the [FDIC]'s ability to assert defensive setoff rights are preserved," wrote the judge. "This Court does not take a position on the strength or propriety of the [FDIC]'s purported defensive setoff rights since that is not the question before the Court. "
Fed, FDIC finalize guidance on resolution plans for large non-systemic banks -Washington regulators solidified their expectations for how certain large banks should prepare themselves for orderly liquidations. The Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on Monday finalized their guidance on resolution planning for banks that have more than $250 billion of assets but that are not considered systemically important. The expectations largely mirror what the regulators proposed last summer, albeit with a few points of clarification made in response to public comments.Regulators also extended the deadline for affected firms — known as triennial filers — to submit their next resolution plan from March 31, 2025 to October 1, 2025, giving them more time to incorporate the updated expectation.Originally, Category II and III banks faced a deadline to file their plans on July 1 of this year, but that deadline was pushed back in January. Along with filing every three years, banks in this category alternate between "full" and "targeted" submissions. Within the finalized guidance, the Fed and FDIC provided more context about how banks can demonstrate that their plans will result in the least possible cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund — satisfying what is known as the least-cost requirement of the Federal Deposit Act. The new guidance does not change the expectations around meeting this requirement, but provides common examples for doing so. It also notes that a full least-cost analysis will not be required as part of a resolution plan.Regulators also addressed concerns that their proposed expectations were indicating a preference for a single-point-of-entry strategy, which is most often employed by global systemically important banks, or GSIBs. The updated version notes that "the selection of a resolution strategy is up to each firm."The new guidance also addresses the resolution of foreign banks, noting that firms in this category have parent companies that are subject to similar regimes in their home countries. Because of this, the guidance notes that these banks would not be expected to provide information to which they do not have access nor would they have to disclose how regulatory expectations differ between jurisdictions. Instead, they will be expected to describe how their domestic resolution plans would impact U.S. operations.
BankThink: The evolution of banking as a service is at an inflection point | American Banker - Despite recent industry shake-ups and a downturn in venture investment, banking as a service, or BaaS, is not going away, and demand for embedded finance continues to grow. Driven by a changing market, BaaS is evolving dramatically toward a new model, one where banks will have greater operational control and will be further solidified at the center of the embedded financeecosystem. This shift in the BaaS model is partly attributable to regulatory actions that have cemented existing regulations governing fintech partnership models. Other key drivers include the increased demand for embedded finance products and the maturation of partnership dynamics between banks and other businesses. What was once a market dominated by finance-focused applications that played in the same sandbox as neobanks and challenger banks, has now been opened to large brands, merchants, software-as-a-service companies and payment facilitators. This growth in demand is underscored by a Bain Capital study estimating that the transaction value of embedded finance will reach $7 trillion by 2026, a nearly 300% increase over just five yearsBaaS is having a measurable impact on the banking business, especially in the community bank space. Community banks (less than $10 billion in assets), many of which have seen declining assets as younger people flock to their larger brethren, are being bolstered by BaaS. In fact, those offering BaaS are seeing median deposit growth of more than 2% versus a near 1% decline among peers that don't, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Overall, banking is becoming more embedded, open, cloud-based and compliant. In Europe, BaaS is growing to what McKinsey projects will reach $100+ billion by the start of the next decade. This highlights the urgent need for a more robust BaaS model that can help sponsor banks grow while retaining their reputation as trusted and convenient financial partners. Bank leaders at the helm of sponsor entities can invest in BaaS business development and management functions to address compliance concerns as well as to compete in a growing market of sponsor bank options. BaaS still provides a great opportunity for many banks to scale, and the most successful will be those that operationalize all aspects of their BaaS function and invest heavily in the technology that is replacing the intermediary providers of BaaS 1.0 that have agitated regulators when it comes to ownership and responsibility of financial products. An additional step in the BaaS revolution will be the new market opportunity for bank-focused software and tools that facilitate the softer elements of partnerships. Whereas older BaaS platforms controlled the relationship value chain for banks and fintechs, new BaaS tools will enable and enhance the banks' capabilities to find new nonbank partners, vet them based on target risk/return profile and implement them quickly — reducing upfront costs and time to market, and helping banks manage their partners over their relationship lifespan. In short, if the early days of BaaS were driven by market opportunity, the coming days of BaaS will be driven by the operational apparatus and software to acquire and manage that opportunity.
Fed Q2 SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Tighter Standards and Weaker Demand for almost All Loan Types - From the Federal Reserve: The July 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices The July 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the second quarter of 2024. Regarding loans to businesses, survey respondents reported, on balance, tighter standards and basically unchanged demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes over the second quarter. Meanwhile, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for all commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories. For loans to households, banks reported, on balance, basically unchanged lending standards and weaker demand across all categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans. In addition, banks reported basically unchanged lending standards and unchanged demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Moreover, standards reportedly tightened for credit card and other consumer loans but remained basically unchanged for auto loans, while demand weakened for auto and other consumer loans but remained basically unchanged for credit card loans. While banks, on balance, reported having tightened lending standards further for most loan categories in the second quarter, the net shares of banks that reported having tightened lending standards are lower than in the first quarter across almost all loan categories. This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts. This graph is for demand and shows that demand has declined. The left graphs are from 1990 to 2014. The right graphs are from 2015 to Q2 2024.
BankThink: A new balance between private credit and syndicated loans is coming | American Banker -Increased bank regulation, public market dislocation and investors' search for yield have propelled private credit funds to grow beyond their middle market roots. Private credit, private debt and direct lending are used interchangeably but all refer to loans extended by an asset manager rather than a traditional bank, to corporate borrowers or financial sponsor-backed companies. These lenders stepped in to fund companies viewed to be too risky or too small to raise debt in public markets but have since broadened out to support borrowers that were previously served by banks. The rise of private credit is, in part, an offshoot of a well-functioning market, born out of legitimate market-fueled demand. During periods of market dislocation, whether the global financial crisis, regional banking meltdown or fast-paced Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, the private debt market has filled a financing gap left open by traditional banks. The asset class has grown to an estimated $1.7 trillion, having taken share in recent years from both the leveraged loan and high-yield debt markets, which, respectively, sit at $1.4 trillion and $1.6 trillion. Private credit brings certainty of execution, flexibility and speed of close compared to the syndicated market, though often at a higher cost and with more restrictive covenants. For its part, the syndicated market where banks play offers less restrictive terms and more competitive pricing.Innovation in the capital markets is healthy, yet the shift to private credit has led to disequilibrium in the markets. According to LCD and Preqin, private credit constituted roughly a quarter of the leveraged finance market in 2022, up from mid-single digits in the early aughts. This evolution, intended to transfer risk from banks, has come at their (our) expense.Rapid growth of private credit as an asset class has recently raised concerns, chief among them misjudgment of risk and reward by investors (quality of credit, high leverage) driven by competition for new deals amid a tepid deal environment. Specifically, private credit has yet to go through a cycle where companies in their portfolio may struggle to meet obligations (covenants) in a higher rate environment (notwithstanding expected Fed rate cuts) and underperform in an economic slowdown with higher debt service. To be sure, some cracks in the market have started to show in the form of equity write-downs, covenant relief and workouts. According to a recent report from the IMF, immediate financial stability risks from private credit appear to be confined. However, the limited oversight and opaque and intertwined nature of its ecosystems may mask vulnerabilities. In the meantime, the syndicated market has regained its footing this year. In the leveraged loan market, borrowers have outperformed expectations despite the weight of the Fed's aggressive monetary policy. While default rates have risen to 4.7% as of June 2024, according to Moody's, they did so from extremely low levels. As recession fears and corresponding loan defaults have diminished, public market credit spreads (a factor which represents implied default risk) have dropped to historically low levels.
Warren, Van Hollen tell JPMorgan Chase not to raise checking fees | Senators Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., told JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon to "put on hold any plans" to raise fees on checking accounts. In a letter sent Friday to the president and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, the senators called a plan to raise fees on checking accounts "outrageous," claiming the $4.1 trillion-asset New York bank would be harming its 86 million customers.Last month, Marianne Lake, the CEO of consumer and community banking at Chase Bank, warned that if regulations reduce overdraft and credit card late fees, the bank would have to raise fees on banking products such as checking accounts to offset the lost revenue. Lake acknowledged that JPMorgan would be imposing "broad, sweeping and significant" new costs for a host of free services — checking accounts, credit score trackers, and wealth management tools — once new regulations are finalized and go into effect."JPMorgan Chase should put a hold on any plans to levy additional charges on working Americans," the senators wrote in the letter. "JPMorgan Chase's potential imposition of new costs on its customers in response to legal and long-overdue efforts to limit abusive fees — at a time when the then bank is making record profits and funneling those profits straight into the pockets of its executives — is outrageous."A spokeswoman for the bank declined to comment.In January, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau proposed dramatically cutting overdraft fees at the largest 175 banks by setting a price cap from $3 to $14 depending on the banks' costs and disclosures. Banks have said they would be forced to restrict credit, impose higher minimum balance requirements on bank accounts and limit the availability of free or low-cost checking accounts. Banks also have said they would challenge the proposal once it is finalized because competitors with less than $10 billion in assets would be exempt.Separately, the CFPB in March finalized a rule to cut credit card late fees to $8 and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and bank trade groups promptly sued the bureau. The CFPB has estimated that cutting credit card late fees would wipe out up to $9 billion a year in revenue for banks and credit card companies. In addition, banks have claimed that bank capital rules spelled out in the Basel III endgame proposal would force lenders to restrict credit including for mortgages and credit cards, particularly to lower-income consumers.
Beneficial State Bank joins consumer groups in opposing CRA lawsuit — Oakland, California-based Beneficial Bank is breaking with many of their industry colleagues by opposing a lawsuit challenging updates to implementing regulations for the Community Reinvestment Act. Randell Leach, CEO of Beneficial State Bank — a financial institution with a focus on community development — said the American Bankers Association-led lawsuit against the revamped CRArules compounds the banking industry's history of discrimination, noting that many of the members of the bank trade groups challenging the new anti-redlining rules discriminated against minority borrowers in the past."This isn't the first time that the banking lobby has decided to file a lawsuit and spend millions of dollars rather than update its practices to be fairer and more transparent," Leach said. "In many cases, the very same banks that have practiced racial and ethnic discrimination are arguing that this improved legislation is inconvenient, which is simply abhorrent."In a rare moment of public intra-industry disagreement, the Oakland bank is calling not only for the final CRA to proceed, but also for additional corrective measures to "redress the banking sector's long history of racism that has perpetuated wealth inequities in the U.S."A coalition of trade groups — including the ABA, Independent Community Bankers of America, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Texas Bankers Association and Independent Bankers Association of Texas — filed a lawsuit in February in the Northern District of Texas attempting to stop recently finalized reforms to implementing regulations for the CRA.The suit argues that the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency arbitrarily exceeded their statutory authority when they finalized their amendments to the CRA rules in October. The rule is the first such reform to the implementation rules of the 1977 anti-redlining law since the 1990s. Since then, a federal judge in Texas issued a preliminary injunction against enforcing new rules pending the outcome of the case.
Federal Home Loan Banks face amped-up pressure from Biden administration, senators --President Joe Biden's administration and Senate Democrats are ramping up pressure on the Federal Home Loan Bank system to pump more money into solving the nation's housing crisis.Senators Catherine Cortez Masto, Elizabeth Warren, Ron Wyden and other lawmakers sent letters to FHLBs last week, calling out how much the government-backed system pays to executives. They also called on the lenders to increase the share of profit they put toward affordable housing and community development programs beyond the 15% they've already pledged.Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo and Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Sandra Thompson also held a call with executives at the FHLBs last Wednesday to push them to do more to boost housing supply. The conversation was intended to step up pressure on the banks after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for them to dedicate at least 20% of their profit to housing programs earlier this year."I was disappointed by the lack of additional ideas they had," Adeyemo said in an interview after the meeting. "Ultimately, their regulator and Congress are likely going to have to act."The outreach comes as Democrats make a case to voters that they're addressing sky-high housing costs. The FHLBs are sitting on tens of billions of dollars in excess capital, partly as a result of the record profit they made propping up regional banks last year. That's made them a target for lawmakers and regulators who argue they should do more to support homeownership and rental housing, especially given government benefits estimated to reach almost $7 billion this fiscal year.The home-loan banks are required by law to earmark 10% of their profit for affordable housing programs. As regulators worked on a plan to reform the system last year, the FHLBs voluntarily agreed to increase that amount to 15%.Although the pledge didn't stipulate a timeline, a review by lawmakers, based on data provided by the FHLBs' own trade group, showed that four of the banks fell short of the 15% mark in 2023."The FHLBs' limited affordable housing contributions are especially troubling given the generous compensation currently awarded to FHLB executives and board members," wrote the group of senators, which also included Tina Smith, Tammy Baldwin, Bernie Sanders and John Fetterman.The FHLBs have met with the administration, lawmakers and others in government in recent months to discuss what more they could do to increase housing supply, Ryan Donovan, president of the Council of Federal Home Loan Banks, said in an emailed statement. "In all cases, these discussions have been constructive and have highlighted opportunities for innovation as well as regulatory relief that can facilitate the FHLBanks doing more," he said.
Banks rebuff FHFA inquiry into the Federal Home Loan Banks' mission - Banks, credit unions and insurers are rebuffing the Federal Housing Finance Agency's inquiry into the Federal Home Loan Bank System, claiming that any changes to the government-sponsored enterprise's mission must come from Congress, not the system's regulator.Trade groups that represent thousands of financial institutions have told FHFA Director Sandra Thompson that the regulatory agency doesn't have the authority to update the Home Loan Bank's mission. The trade groups are responded to the FHFA's request for information in Mayto update the system's dual mission. By law, Congress explicitly recognized that the Federal Home Loan Banks have a mission of "providing liquidity to members" and supporting "affordable housing and community development." The FHFA wants the private bank cooperative to increase its support for housing. The FHFA plans to issue a rulemaking notice to determine whether the $1.3 trillion-asset private cooperative is providing the public service it was created for in 1932 to support housing during the Depression. In comment letters, the Federal Home Loan banks and their member-financial institutions portray a vastly different view of their mission compared to their regulator, setting up a potential clash."Any rulemaking process has to take place within the statutory box and who draws the box? Congress is the one that draws the box," said Ryan Donovan, president and CEO of the Council of Federal Home Loan Banks, the system's trade group. "The mission is pretty clearly laid out in the statute through the activities that Congress has authorized the Home Loan Banks to take part in and the things that they've required the Home Loan Banks to do. That's why you're hearing from many stakeholders their concern that in this effort, FHFA may be stepping outside the box."
Lawmakers urge NY Home Loan bank to adopt fairer credit models — Democratic lawmakers this week asked the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York to adopt modern credit scoring models to assess collateral that includes alternative data like rental payments, which they say would expand homeownership opportunities for underserved and historically marginalized communities.In a letter this week, House Democrats Ritchie Torres and Gregory Meeks — both of New York — said the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York could expand homeownership opportunities by incorporating new credit practices."The current housing market often excludes many creditworthy individuals due to outdated mortgage financing technologies," they wrote. "By embracing these updated credit scoring models, the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York can play a pivotal role in helping more New Yorkers achieve the dream of homeownership."The Federal Home Loan banks use consumer credit scores to assess the creditworthiness of their members' borrowers, ensuring that the loans they support are sound and do not pose a major risk of default. By evaluating the credit scores of consumers whose loans are held by their member institutions, Federal Home Loan banks can gauge the overall financial health and risk profiles of these members when determining the quality of the collateral members pledge for advances.They say alternative credit scoring models — such as VantageScore 4.0, which incorporates nontraditional data like rental payments — have great potential to level the playing field for underserved communities, particularly veterans, Hispanic Americans, African Americans, Asian Americans and rural residents. They note that the Federal Housing Finance Agency has mandated the use of VantageScore for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-guaranteed mortgages and that the Federal Home Loan banks of San Francisco and Chicago have already adopted this inclusive scoring model. The lawmakers urged the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York to follow suit and accept member mortgages using these modern credit scores. They argue that this move would align with the bank's mission to support affordable housing, aiding more New Yorkers in achieving homeownership and strengthening the state's communities and economy.
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Existing Home Inventory Surges in Florida and Texas - Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: As tappable equity hits record high of $11.5T, 3 of 5 mortgage holders have at least $100K to borrow against
- Even as outstanding mortgage debt hit an all-time high of $13.8T in June, rising home prices outpaced that growth, driving mortgage holder equity to its own new record high of $17.6T in Q2 2024
- Climbing equity has eased overall leverage in the market, with total mortgage debt equivalent to 44.1% of underlying home values, down from 44.6% in Q1 and the third lowest leverage ratio of the past 20+ years
- Tappable equity – the amount a borrower can access while maintaining a healthy 20% equity cushion – also hit a new peak in June at $11.5T, a +4% gain from Q1 and +9.2% year over year
- 32M mortgage holders have at least $100K in tappable equity; 4.6M have at least $500K, and nearly 1.2M have $1M or more, with higher equity holders tending to have lower first lien rates as well
- Borrowers with 760+ credit scores hold two-thirds of tappable equity; a similar share is held by those with sub-4% first lien rates, an inherent incentive to use second lien debt to tap equity, should the need arise
- Fewer than 325K homeowners are underwater nationwide, representing just 0.60% of active mortgages, with another 4.2% having less than 10% equity in their homes
- Texas, Florida, and Louisiana are worth watching as inventory grows and home prices soften in some areas, increasing the number of borrowers in negative equity positions
- Nationally, 84% of underwater mortgages were originated within the past 3.5 years; that share climbs above 97% in markets where prices have pulled back from recent highs
- Though the ICE Home Price Index (HPI) has shown a general slowdown in the rate of home price growth through June – and in some locales, price declines driven by surplus inventory – mortgage holders’ equity levels continue to hit new heights.
- “Outstanding mortgage debt, including both first and second liens, hit an all-time high in June, but growth in home prices has outpaced that gradual rise in debt,” . “Total cumulative debt leverage – essentially a loan-to-value ratio for the entire mortgage market – is equivalent to 44.1% of underlying home values, the third lowest leverage ratio we’ve seen in the past 20-plus years. Rising home prices have also continued to build the fortunes of existing homeowners, pushing tappable equity – the amount a mortgage holder can leverage while retaining a healthy 20% equity cushion – to its highest level ever.”
Mortgage Delinquencies saw a calendar-related “Spike” in June. Here is a graph on delinquencies from ICE. Overall delinquencies increased in June but are below the pre-pandemic levels.
- • Mortgage delinquencies spiked in June, rising by 14.5% (+45 basis points) to 3.49%, the second highest level in 18 months
- • The increase was the largest single-month spike since the onset of the COVID pandemic and ranked among the 10 largest single-month increases since the turn of the century, raising the question of growing mortgage performance risk
- • June’s +19.6% increase in the number of borrowers a single payment past due was the highest inflow since May 2020, while 60-day delinquencies rose 11.8% to a five-month high
- • Though up 5.1% from May, serious delinquencies (loans 90+ days past due but not in active foreclosure) were still down -8.5% year over year and 10.1% below pre-pandemic levels
- • Dissected further, June’s spike in delinquencies appears to be primarily calendar-related and largely in line with what we’ve seen from similar past events
- • Delinquencies typically rise by +2.2% seasonally in June; however, June 2024 also ended on a Sunday, which can have significant impacts on mortgage payment and processing activity
- • The typical Sunday month-end over the past 22 years has resulted in a corresponding spike (+6.3% on average) in delinquencies
- • When you combine those two factors – a June that ends on a Sunday – the impact compounds, resulting in a 12% rise in delinquencies in the three most recent Sunday-ending Junes (2002, 2013, 2019)
The local data I track is indicating that Florida and Texas inventory is above normal, whereas inventory is still low in most of the country.
- • Nearly every major market (98%) is seeing more for-sale inventory than at this time last year, with the largest rises in Tampa (+98%), Orlando (+82%), North Port (+80%) and Palm Bay, Fla. (+79%) and Denver (+78%)
- • One in four major markets has at least 50% more inventory than last year, with one in five now at (or above) pre-pandemic inventory levels
- • Lakeland, Fla., for example, had 58% more homes for sale in June than it did, on average, during the same month from 2017 to 2019, with Austin and San Antonio running second and third at 38% and 35% above pre-pandemic levels
- • That said, inventory remains stubbornly low in parts of the Northeast with Connecticut markets (Hartford, Bridgeport and New Haven) running 75-80% below normal
Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 4.1% year-over-year in June, down from 4.7% YoY in May. There is much more in the mortgage monitor.
How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2025? With house prices up mid-single digits over the last year, an interesting question is: How much will the Fannie & Freddie conforming loan limits (CLL) change for 2025? And how much will the FHA insured loan limits change?First, there are different loan limits for various geographical areas. There are also different loan limits depending on the number of units (from 1 to 4 units). For example, currently the CLL is $766,550 for one-unit properties in low-cost areas. For high-cost areas like Los Angeles County, the CLL is $1,149,825 for one-unit properties (50% higher than the baseline CLL). The CLL for each county is available at 2024 Conforming Loan Limits (excel file).The limit is updated annually, and is adjusted using the FHFA’s quarterly national, seasonally adjusted, expanded-data index: Expanded-Data Indexes (Estimated using Enterprise, FHA, and Real Property County Recorder Data Licensed from DataQuick for sales below the annual loan limit ceiling). The adjustment is based on the House Price Index value in Q3 divided by Q3 in the prior year. The FHFA index is a repeat sales index, similar to Case-Shiller.This calculation has changed with the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA). Also, in 2015, the FHFA decided to use the seasonally adjusted expanded data index.Currently we only have data for Q1 2024 for the quarterly index (up 6.6% from Q1 2023), and the monthly House Price Index was up 5.7% YoY through May 2024.Note that during periods when house prices decline, the CLL is not reduced. The CLL was at $417,000 from 2006 through 2016, and only increased slightly in 2017 as the house price index caught back up to the previous high reached during the housing bubble. This graph shows the CLL since 1979. The CLL was unchanged from 2006 though 2016.We need the house price data through September 2024 to calculate the conforming loan limit for 2025. This quarterly data will be released in late November.Based on the current year-over-year house price change (through May), the CLL would be close to $810,000 in 2025. For high-cost areas like Los Angeles, the limit could increase to over $1.2 million. However, the year-over-year (YoY) increase in house prices has been slowing, and it is likely the increase will be less than 5.7%.What about FHA insured loans? From the FHA: FHA's nationwide forward mortgage limit "floor" and "ceiling" for a one-unit property in CY 2024 are $498,257 and $1,149,825, respectively.The current FHA insured limit (low-cost area) is 65% of $766,550 or $498,257. In high-cost areas, the FHA insured limit could be as high as $1,149,825. The limit varies by geographical area (based on average house prices).Note that HERA changed this relationship. For low costs areas, prior to HERA, the FHA insured limit (low cost) was 48% of the CLL.Once again, we need the expanded index house price data for Q3.Note: In some years, private lenders have announced an increase in the CLL in October prior to the official release in late November. Since house prices increased sharply in 2021 and 2022, these lenders estimated the likely increase in the CLL - minus a comfortable buffer - and started accepting larger loans. These lenders qualified buyers as if they were selling the loans to Fannie and Freddie, except for the loan limit. Then these lenders held any loans made with the "unofficial limit” in their own portfolio until the following January. With a much smaller increase in house prices this year, it is unlikely we will see lenders announce unofficial increases this year.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey -From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications increased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 2, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 6.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 16 percent from the previous week and was 59 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 11 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates decreased across the board last week and mortgage application volume reached its highest level since January of this year. The 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.55 percent, reaching its lowest level since May 2023, following doveish communication from the Federal Reserve and a weak jobs report, which added to increased concerns of an economy slowing more rapidly than expected,” . “As a result of lower rates, refinance applications increased across all loan types, particularly for VA loans, and were almost 60 percent higher than it was at this time last year and were at its highest level in two years.”The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.55 percent from 6.82 percent, with points decreasing to 0.58 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 11% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up about 7% from the lows in late October 2023, but still below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990. With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and mostly flat lined since then with some increases recently.
Housing August 5th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.0% Week-over-week, Up 39.9% Year-over-year - Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.0% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 38.4% from the February seasonal bottom. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of August 2nd, inventory was at 684 thousand (7-day average), compared to 677 thousand the prior week. This is the highest level of inventory since June 2020; however, inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 39.9% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 39.4%), and down 28.9% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 29.4%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 4.7% Year-over-year in June as "Prices Cool" -- Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for June. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for May. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Annual US Home Price Growth Below 5% for Second Consecutive Month as June Home Prices Cool:
• U.S. home prices posted a 4.7% year-over-year gain in June, with only one state posting double-digit gains.
• By summer 2025, prices are predicted to slow to 2.3% as home price growth continues to slow
• In June, home prices were up only 0.3% from the month before, half the rate of seasonal increase seen in June in the years prior to the pandemic
U.S. year-over-year home price gains inched down, reaching 4.7% in June, falling further from the previous month’s 4.9% in what will likely be a continual slide throughout the next year. Although June marked the 150th consecutive month of annual growth, the rate of growth is expected to decrease by more than half of its current rate, with prices expected to grow by only 2.3% on a year-over-year basis next summer. Month over month, home prices rose just 0.3% from May to June. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that prices will repeat that pattern, rising by 0.3% again from June 2024 to July 2024. In the years prior to pandemic, monthly gains from May to July generally saw stronger increases. The cooling of monthly gains during the spring home-buying season reflects the impact of high mortgage rates on home buyers’ budgets and constraint on affordability. ... “Housing market activity essentially froze at the end of the spring home-buying season as high mortgage rates continued to compress affordability and dissuade potential homebuyers,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for CoreLogic. “The 0.3% gain in prices from the month before was less than half the increase seen between May and June prior to the pandemic, when the gains averaged 0.8%. In addition, cooling home prices continued to spread across more markets, and nine states reported a monthly decline, up from three states last month. The April surge in mortgage rates notably weighed on consumer sentiment, and consumers increasingly chose to respond to the anticipation of a lower mortgage rate environment later this year.” This was a smaller YoY increase than reported for May, and down from the 5.8% YoY increase reported at the beginning of 2024.
More Americans are tapping home equity credit lines, NY Fed says --Americans who want to tap the rising equity of their homes without giving up their low mortgage rates are turning to home equity lines of credit. High borrowing costs led to fewer mortgage originations in the second quarter, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit released Tuesday. The share of overall consumer debt in delinquency was unchanged at 3.2%, though the share of auto and credit card loans that were newly delinquent continued to climb. Some $374 billion in mortgage debt was originated in the second quarter, down substantially from about $900 billion on average in 2021 and 2022, the report said. Balances on home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, rose to $380 billion, representing the ninth consecutive increase. "The volume of mortgage originations remained low, primarily due to subdued refinancing activity," Andrew Haughwout, director of household and public policy research at the New York Fed, said in a press release accompanying the report. "Homeowners continued to increase HELOC balances as an alternative way to extract home equity." The drop in mortgage origination is part of a broader slowdown in a housing market that became overheated during the pandemic, when home buyers and home owners rushed to take advantage of lower mortgage rates by purchasing homes and refinancing existing loans. Since late 2021, HELOC balances have rebounded by 20% as people use this source of cash to pay down other debt or meet large expenses. Around 1.8 million HELOCs in total were originated in 2023 and the first two quarters of 2024, and many went to older borrowers, who typically have owned their homes for a longer period of time and have more equity to tap. Overall household debt increased by $109 billion in the second quarter to $17.8 trillion, the report showed. That included a $77 billion increase in mortgage debt, which was slowed by the drop in mortgage originations. Balances on credit cards rose by $27 billion to $1.14 trillion, and auto loan balances increased by $10 billion to $1.63 trillion. Consumers continued to struggle with their debt payments despite the stablization in overall delinquency. The share of auto loan balances that became at least 30 days delinquent rose to 7.95%, the most since 2010. The share of credit card debt that was newly delinquent rose to 9.05%, the most in about 12 years. Meanwhile more than 10% of the youngest credit card borrowers had not made a payment in at least 90 days as of the end of June, double the rate at the end of 2021.
NY Fed Q2 Report: Household Debt Increased, Mortgage Originations Remain Low -From the NY Fed: Household Debt Increased Moderately in Q2 2024; Auto and Credit Card Delinquency Rates Remain Elevated The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $109 billion (0.6%) in Q2 2024, to $17.80 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. It includes a one-page summary of key takeaways and their supporting data points. The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining growing balances of home equity lines of credit (HELOC). “The volume of mortgage originations remained low, primarily due to subdued refinancing activity.” “Homeowners continued to increase HELOC balances as an alternative way to extract home equity.” Mortgage balances rose by $77 billion from the previous quarter and reached $12.52trillion at the end of June. HELOC balances increased by $4 billion, representing the ninth consecutive quarterly increase since Q1 2022, and stood at $380 billion. This is a $63 billion increase from the series low reached in Q3 2021. Credit card balances increased by $27 billion to $1.14 trillion. Auto loan balances saw a $10 billion increase and stood at $1.63 trillion. Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, were effectively flat, with a $1 billion increase. Mortgage originations continued increasing at about the same pace seen in the previous four quarters and stood at $374 billion. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased modestly by $69 billion, representing a 1.4% increase from the previous quarter. Limits on HELOC increased by $3 billion, the ninth consecutive quarterly increase. Aggregate delinquency rates were unchanged from the previous quarter, with 3.2% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Delinquency transition rates for credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages increased slightly. Here are three graphs from the report: The first graph shows household debt increased in Q2. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Unlike following the great recession, there wasn't a decline in debt during the pandemic. From the NY Fed: Aggregate household debt balances increased by $109 billion in the second quarter of 2024, a 0.6% rise from 2024Q1. Balances now stand at $17.80 trillion and have increased by $3.7 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency. The overall delinquency rate was mostly unchanged in Q2. From the NY Fed: Aggregate delinquency rates were unchanged from the first quarter of 2024. As of June, 3.2% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency. ... Delinquency transition rates for credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages increased slightly. Over the last year, approximately 9.1% of credit card balances and 8.0% of auto loan balances transitioned into delinquency. Early delinquency transition rates for mortgages increased by 0.1 percentage point yet remain low by historic standards. The third graph shows Mortgage Originations by Credit Score. From the NY Fed: Credit quality of newly originated loans was steady, with 3.9% of mortgages and 16.7% of auto loans originated to borrowers with credit scores under 620, a slight increase from the first quarter. The median credit score for newly originated mortgages rose slightly to 772, while the median credit score of newly originated auto loans was 719, five points lower than the historic high reached in 2024Q1.There is much more in the report.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.4% Year-over-year - From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 27 July - The U.S. hotel industry reported lower performance results than the previous week and mixed comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 27 July. ...
21-27 July 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):
• Occupancy: 72.0% (-0.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$164.45 (+1.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$118.37 (+0.9%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking just behind last year and is below the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally for another week or two due to summer recreational travel.
Las Vegas June 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 1.8% YoY; Convention Traffic Down 7.9% --From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: June 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Las Vegas hosted nearly 3.5M visitors in June, beating last June by 1.8%. Estimated convention attendance neared 420k but with a YoY decrease of ‐7.9% tied to some show rotation cycles, including the absence of the SHRM conference (20k attendees) that was held in Las Vegas last year but elsewhere this June, and the scheduling difference of the Las Vegas Licensing Expo (25k attendees) that fell in May this year vs. June in 2023. Overall hotel occupancy reached 85.2% (down 0.3 pts), with YoY gains in Weekend occupancy (91.3%, up 1.1 pts) while Midweek occupancy (82.6%), was down ‐0.9 pts vs. last June. ADR of roughly $176 exceeded last year by 6.4%, and RevPAR approached $150, up 6.0% YoY. The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (dark blue), 2021 (light blue), 2022 (light orange), 2023 (dark orange) and 2024 (red). Visitor traffic was up 1.8% compared to last June. Visitor traffic was down 3.2% compared to June 2019. Year-to-date visitor traffic is down 0.2% compared to 2019.The second graph shows convention traffic. Convention traffic was down 7.9% compared to June 2023, and down 18.4% compared to June 2019. Year-to-date convention traffic is down 10.1% compared to 2019.
Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in July; Down 4.8% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in July Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were higher in July compared to June. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 201.6, a decline of 4.8% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index amplified the impact on the month, resulting in values that rose 2.8% month over month. The non-adjusted price in July increased by 0.6% compared to June, moving the unadjusted average price down 5.9% year over year. This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions. The Manheim index suggests used car prices increased in July (seasonally adjusted) and were down 4.8% year-over-year (YoY).
Heavy Truck Sales Increased in July - This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the July 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 485 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 485 thousand SAAR in July, up from 452 thousand in June, and down 3.8% from 504 thousand SAAR in July 2023. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Heavy truck sales are solid.
Trade Deficit Decreased to $73.1 Billion in June -- The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $73.1 billion in June, down $1.9 billion from $75.0 billion in May, revised. June exports were $265.9 billion, $3.9 billion more than May exports. June imports were $339.0 billion, $2.0 billion more than May imports. Both exports and imports increased in June. Exports are up 5.9% year-over-year; imports are up 7.3% year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back - imports and exports have generally increased recently. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing. The trade deficit with China decreased to $22.8 billion from $24.1 billion a year ago.
Yet Another Cargo Theft From A Refrigerated 18 Wheeler In Philadelphia - Cargo thefts are becoming a trend in Philadelphia...and it doesn't look like the swearing in of new Mayor Cherelle Parker - who is supposed to be far tougher on crime than her predecessor Jim Kenney - is deterring them. This time around thieves made off with "large cartons of tuna from a refrigerated truck" in South Philadelphia, according to 6ABC. The crime took place at about 3:30am on Thursday near Pattison Ave. when the truck was parked on the roadway. The report said that"multiple male suspects got away in two vehicles - a white sedan and a SUV."Back in April, thieves made off with more than $12,000 in pork from a Northeast Philadelphia truck. That crime marked the 37th cargo theft in the area for the year, and it was months ago. The thieves made off with 56 cases of pork at the time. As ABC noted in April, the location where the pork was stolen is a popular overnight stop for truckers en route to morning warehouse deliveries. However, it's also become a hotspot for theft, with recent incidents on March 14 involving stolen bourbon and meat while drivers were asleep.Captain Jack Ryan of the Philadelphia Police Dept. commented: "They are asleep in a lot of cases. The refrigerated trucks make a lot of noise."And, recall last year thieves also stole 2 million dimes worth $200,000 from a truck parked at a Philadelphia Walmart. The truck had $750,000 in dimes in it altogether. Many were found strewn about in a Walmart parking lot where the trailer was parked. The dimes had been picked up at the Philadelphia Mint, but the driver of the truck went home to sleep before planning to drive the next day to Florida.
New York police arrest journalist on “hate crime” charges for filming anti-genocide protest - On Tuesday, the New York Police Department (NYPD) arrested video-journalist Samuel Seligson on charges of felony hate crime and criminal mischief for allegedly recording a protest against genocide. Seligson is charged with videoing activists as they painted anti-Zionist graffiti June 12 on the homes of Brooklyn Museum Director Anne Pasternak and three other members of the museum’s board of directors. Taylor Pelton, a 28-year-old illustrator, was arrested July 31 for participating in the same action. Seligson’s attorney, Leena Widdi, told the media that the NYPD officers twice raided her client’s Brooklyn apartment in the week before he turned himself in. She called the police actions “appalling.” In a statement to the Intercept, Widdi added: The state has not provided any reliable evidence that he was actually there. And even if he were there, they have not made any allegations that he engaged in any activity beyond mere presence. The anonymous activists painted red inverted triangles–allegedly a symbol of Palestinian resistance—on Pasternak’s residence, and hoisted a banner that read, “Anne Pasternak Brooklyn Museum White-Supremacist Zionist.” On the sidewalks in front of other board members’ homes they painted slogans such as “Blood on Your Hands,” as well as anarchist symbols. In a statement sent to Hyperallergic, the anonymous group of activists said: The museum’s complicity in the Palestinian genocide is a filthy inescapable reality and so is its violence against those protesting it … Our action is a retaliation against the museum’s direct connections to the networks that materially support the genocidal entity as well as its collaboration with the fascist NYPD.
After pandemic, school openings linked to poor mental health -- While many studies have shown that COVID-19 pandemic-era school closures had negative effects on student mental health, a new study in JAMA Network Open shows the opposite: the re-opening of schools trigged an increased incidence of acute psychiatric emergencies, suggesting school can be a substantial source of stress for some students.The study is based on 13,014 psychiatric emergency department (ED) visits at 9 university hospitals in Italy from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021.The number of ED visits increased across the study period. The authors found school opening, but not social lockdown restrictions, were associated with an increase in the number of ED psychiatric visits (incidence rate ratio [IRR]1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23 to 1.34).For psychiatric visits overall, there was a notable increase in both females (IRR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.25 to 1.33) and males (IRR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.2).Three areas of mental health saw the biggest jump in ED visits during the study period: eating disorders (increase of 294.8%), suicidal ideation (297.8%), and suicide attempt (249.1%). " For some students, the avoidance of stress-provoking social situations in school may translate into a temporary relief when school is closed," the study authors wrote. "The lack of habituation to managing social stress during school closure may then be associated with greater distress upon school reopening. Possible stress from risk of contagion upon returning to school is another factor to consider."
Uptick in psychiatric emergency visits seen with school reopening following COVID-19 lockdowns School reopening following COVID-19 disruptions was associated with an increase in acute psychiatric emergencies, according to a study published online Aug. 5 in JAMA Network Open. Chiara Davico, M.D., from University of Turin in Italy, and colleagues assessed whether varying degrees of school interruption were associated with changes in emergency department psychiatric visits for children and adolescents before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis included 13,014 emergency department visits for psychiatric reasons to nine urban university hospitals in Italy (Jan. 1, 2018, to Dec. 31, 2021). The researchers found that the number of emergency department psychiatric visits increased over time (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.19 for each year). Significant increases were seen for emergency department visits related to eating disorders (294.8 percent), suicide ideation (297.8 percent), and suicide attempt (249.1 percent). An increase in emergency department visits was associated with school opening, but not social lockdown restriction (IRR, 1.29), which was significant for females and for suicide ideation and attempt. There was an association seen between socioeconomic status and an increase in psychiatric visits among males (IRR, 1.12). "In this study, school opening was associated with an increased incidence of acute psychiatric emergencies among children and adolescents, suggesting that school can be a substantial source of stress with acute mental health implications," the authors write.
Mental health of lower-income adolescents better than that of wealthier teens during COVID-19 lockdown --Adolescence is a crucial developmental period in which the risk of mental health problems can first emerge. But for millions of youths, that sensitive time period coincided with the social isolation of COVID-19 and remote schooling. Research suggests that the stresses and associated isolation of the pandemic may have worsened emotional and behavioral health among youth. But until recently, nobody had looked at pandemic-related mental health effects by income level. Hypothesizing that the near total social isolation caused by pandemic restrictions would affect youth from lower income families more than their wealthier peers, a team of researchers at Children's Hospital Los Angeles used the pandemic shutdown as a "natural experiment." They followed the mental health outcomes of 10,399 youth between 10 and 12 years old already enrolled in the ongoing multisite, 10-year Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study. Their results were recently published in JAMA Network Open. The researchers analyzed data from 10,171 youth followed for one year, and 10,399 youth with 2-year follow-up data. They determined the adolescents' socio-economic status by calculating families' "income-to-needs ratio," or how much money available per person in the household according to the 2017 federal poverty guidelines. They found that adolescents whose families were associated with higher socioeconomic status—just 1 unit higher on the income-to-needs ratio scale—reported disproportionately worse mental health symptoms including greater depression, anxiety and more total problems over time. "We know that COVID disproportionately affected individuals from lower income households, and we were expecting this would also have an exacerbated effect on the mental health of kids from these households," "We were surprised to find quite the opposite, that the kids from higher income families were the ones most affected by mental health problems during COVID. We've seen in other studies that we've published that the groups at poverty or near-poverty level responded differently during COVID. There could be a level of cultural or community adaptation among these families that the higher and middle-income families did not have." Of the study participants, 52% were male; 20% were Latinx/Hispanic and 66% were white; 44% reported caregivers had less education than a 4-year college degree; and 26% had an income-to-needs ratio below or just above poverty level. The researchers investigated mental health symptoms using the Child Behavior Checklist, which asks caregivers about their children's mental health symptoms; and the Family Environmental Scale, which examines youth-perceived conflict in the home. "The ABCD study wasn't really designed to assess interpersonal relationships," says Dr. Adise. "We know, however, that for most average Americans, that COVID created more conflict among a lot of families. But youth-reported conflict levels didn't explain the differences in mental health outcomes reported by their caregivers in the study. "It would be interesting to look at whether this continues to have a profound, long-lasting effect among these groups. We know from the individuals who were affected by the COVID pandemic lockdown, that kids need extra support. But those financial measures have been used up. "I think this study highlights that we still need to make sure that mental health services are still there to help kids who are suffering anxious, depressed behaviors through adolescence."
Children can inherit early aging symptoms from parents who abuse alcohol, researchers find - Researchers at the Texas A&M School of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences (VMBS) have discovered that parents who struggle with alcohol use disorders can pass along symptoms of early aging to their children, affecting them well into adulthood. Their results are published in Aging and Disease. These accelerated aging effects—including high cholesterol, heart problems, arthritis, and early onset dementia—can be passed down from either mom or dad individually, but they become worse when both parents have an issue with alcohol abuse, especially in male offspring. "Scientists have wondered what causes children who grow up in homes where there is alcohol abuse to be more susceptible to becoming sick," said Dr. Michael Golding, a professor in VMBS' Department of Veterinary Physiology and Pharmacology. "For example, we know that these children have behavioral problems that make it difficult to cope with stress and might lead to conflict with school systems or law enforcement." But what scientists didn't know was the cause behind the early aging and disease susceptibility—was it stress or something inherited from these children's parents? "Now we know that they're inheriting dysfunction in their mitochondria as a result of their parents' substance abuse," Golding said. "The dysfunction causes these individuals to show early signs of age-related disease when they're still considered young, usually in their 40s."
FDA approves epinephrine nasal spray, a needle-free alternative to EpiPen --The Food and Drug Administration approved the first needle-free alternative to the EpiPen on Friday, a single-use epinephrine nasal spray for the emergency treatment of allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis. The agency said it approved Neffy, from ARS Pharmaceuticals, for use in adult and pediatric patients who weigh at least 30 kilograms (about 66 pounds). In a surprise move last year, FDA declined to approve Neffy despite a favorable recommendation from an advisory committee. Instead, the agency asked the manufacturer to complete a study comparing repeat doses of Neffy to repeat doses of epinephrine injection. “Anaphylaxis is life-threatening and some people, particularly children, may delay or avoid treatment due to fear of injections,” Kelly Stone, associate director of FDA’s Division of Pulmonology, Allergy and Critical Care, said in a statement. “The availability of epinephrine nasal spray may reduce barriers to rapid treatment of anaphylaxis. As a result, neffy provides an important treatment option and addresses an unmet need.” Epinephrine has been used since 1901 and is the first line of defense to treat allergic reactions. But all current epinephrine treatments, like the well-known EpiPen and other autoinjectors, use needles — which poses a problem if people are needle-phobic. The approval represents the first significant change in epinephrine delivery in more than 35 years, the company said.
VA study finds diagnostic uncertainty is common with pneumonia --A new study highlights the uncertainty of pneumonia diagnoses made in emergency departments (EDs) and hospitals.The study, published yesterday in the Annals of Internal Medicine, found that in more than half of all Veterans Affairs (VA) patients hospitalized and treated for pneumonia over an 8-year period, the diagnosis of pneumonia changed between initial presentation in the ED and hospital discharge. In addition, uncertainty was often reflected in physician notes and prescription of treatments used for other conditions. The authors of the study say the findings warrant attention from healthcare systems, clinicians, and patients.For the study, a team led by researchers from the University of Utah and the Salt Lake City VA Healthcare System analyzed electronic health record data on patient encounters at EDs that resulted in hospitalization at a VA medical center from 2015 through 2022. They targeted patients hospitalized with a pneumonia diagnosis, using diagnostic codes and an artificial intelligence-based technology called natural language processing to determine whether the diagnosis of pneumonia was made at ED admission, at initial chest imaging, or at discharge from the hospital. Their aim to was determine the frequency of discordant diagnoses, i.e., cases where pneumonia was diagnosed at ED admission but not at discharge, or vice versa.The also looked for signs of diagnostic uncertainty in the clinical data, including alternative diagnostic codes for other conditions, clinician notes that expressed uncertainty, and tests and treatments used for diagnoses that might mimic or accompany pneumonia, such as cardiac conditions, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and asthma exacerbations."Pneumonia can seem like a clear-cut diagnosis, but there is actually quite a bit of overlap with other diagnoses that can mimic pneumonia," lead author Barbara Jones, MD, a pulmonary and critical care physician at University of Utah Health, said in a press release. Of the 2,383,899 hospitalizations at 118 VA medical centers analyzed, 13.3% were diagnosed and treated for pneumonia, with 9.1% receiving an initial pneumonia diagnosis, and 10% receiving a discharge diagnosis. Of the hospitalizations with a diagnosis of pneumonia at either admission or discharge, 38.1% had complete concordance. But discordance between the initial and discharge diagnosis occurred in 57% of hospitalizations. Among those who were diagnosed with pneumonia initially, 36% did not have a pneumonia diagnosis at discharge, and 21% did not have positive initial chest imaging. Among the patients who were discharged with a pneumonia diagnosis and positive initial chest imaging, 33% were not diagnosed on admission.
WHO calls for coordinated effort to boost antibiotic development -- In a policy brief published earlier this week, the World Health Organization (WHO) called for global coordination on policies to strengthen the antibacterial pipeline. The brief highlights a problem the WHO and other antimicrobial resistance (AMR) experts have been warning about for several years—the insufficient number of antibiotic candidates, and the limited innovation in the antibiotic research and development (R&D) pipeline. The WHO notes that of the 128 antibacterial agents in the development pipeline over the past 6 years, only 16 have received market approval, and only 2 have met the WHO's innovation criteria. Moreover, the products still in clinical development do not sufficiently address multidrug-resistant or pan-drug–resistant organisms and the evolving mechanisms of drug resistance. The WHO cites the "persistent R&D challenges" that have created this situation and made the antibiotic pipeline "highly fragile." In particular, it notes that small biotechnology companies make up 93% of the active antibiotic developers in the space. Yet these companies have limited financial, scientific, and technical resources. Governments need to ensure adequate resources for R&D To address these problems, the policy brief calls on governments to ensure adequate resources, including financial push and pull incentives, to boost the antibiotic R&D pipeline and ensure equitable and global access to new antibiotics. It also urges governments to foster innovation in antibiotic R&D, focus on addressing the needs of the small biotechnology companies that are driving innovation in the sector, and strengthen the scientific and drug-development communities in the low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) most heavily impacted by AMR. Other recommendations include emphasizing the development of oral antibiotic formulations, prioritizing new antibiotic treatment options for infants and newborns, and exploring the potential for non-traditional agents. "Existing antibacterial agents are inadequate against the escalating challenge of drug-resistant infections," the WHO wrote. "Immediate global coordination and cooperation is essential to enhance innovative R&D, improve AMR data collection and sharing, and implement investment strategies that are focused on addressing the needs of vulnerable patients, particularly in LMICs, which lack equitable access to medicines, vaccines and diagnostics despite bearing the greater burden of AMR."
MIS-C tied to rare autoimmune overreaction in some children - Though most COVID-19 infections in kids are mild, a rare severe illness following infection affects as many as 1 in 2,000 children, called multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C). The disease is characterized by several sudden, significant signs of multi-organ inflammation, including fever, skin rashes, diarrhea, rapid heartbeat, and swelling of the hands and feet.Now scientists from the University of San Francisco, Chan Zuckerberg Biohub San Francisco, St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, and Boston Children's Hospital, have published inNature new research describing the mechanism behind MIS-C, and suggest the findings could have implications for other autoimmune diseases.First observed in the early months of the pandemic, MIS-C left children with organ failure just weeks after reporting a mild illness with COVID-19. Clinicians noted similarities between Kawasaki disease and other inflammatory conditions in these children, but the cause of the condition was a mystery."Every time COVID peaked in an area, about 30 days later, there’d be a peak of these kids presenting with what looked like septic shock in our network of ICUs, except they were negative for all kinds of infection," said study author Adrienne Randolph, MD, MSc, a critical care pediatrician at Boston Children's Hospital in apress release. In the present study, researchers used blood samples gathered across the United States at pediatric intensive care units, then compared 199 children with MIS-C to 45 samples from children who had not developed MIS-C after COVID. They found one-third of kids with MIS-C had autoantibodies for a human protein called SNX8, which resembled a portion of SARS-CoV-2's N protein. That autoantibody then influenced T cell response. The interplay means children who develop MIS-C have a strong and dangerous antibody response to the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein.The authors concluded their study by noting that MIS-C is becoming more and more rare as COVID-19 becomes endemic, as an increasing number of children have developed immunity through vaccination and natural SARS-CoV-2 infection.As of July 2, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the United States had recorded 9,698 MIS-C cases since March of 2020, including 79 deaths. Most children with the disorder can expect full recovery.
US COVID markers continue steady rise - August 5 - COVID activity continues to increase across much of the United States, with an upward trend in all regions, but with some regional differences, according to the latest updates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The brisk pace of infections comes amid ongoing shifts towards more immune evasive SARS-CoV-2 variants and waning immunity from earlier infections and vaccination. In its latest variant proportion update, the CDC said the percentage of KP.3.1.1 sequences jumped from 14.4% to 27.8% over the past 2 weeks. The variant is cutting into the proportion of its parent variant KP.3, which currently makes up 21.1% of sequences.Nationally, test positivity is 16.3%, up slightly from the previous week. Levels are highest in Texas and surrounding states, averaging 25.7%, followed by the Southeast, the Midwest, and the Northwest. Emergency department visits for COVID make up only 2.2% of visits, but rose 12.1% in the most recent reporting week. The highest levels—all in the moderate range— were in Texas, Louisiana, Florida, and Hawaii.Hospitalization levels remain elevated, especially in seniors, the CDC said. Deaths from COVID were up 25% compared to the previous week, but overall, COVID is responsible for only 1.5% of all deaths. CDC wastewater tracking shows that SARS-CoV-2 detections remain at the high level. The highest levels in the current surge have been in the West, but detections continue to rise steadily in all US regions, most sharply in the South. At the end of July, detections in the West dipped slightly but are now on the rise again. The latest data from WastewaterSCAN, a national wastewater monitoring system based at Stanford University in partnership with Emory University, show that SARS-CoV-2 levels are at the high level nationally, with an upward trend over the past 3 weeks. However, it added that it saw no significant up or down trend in the Northeast and West.
Wastewater shows increase in viral levels across New Jersey, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey - - It looks like COVID-19 cases are on the rise again. One of the major indicators is the level of the virus in wastewater, which has shown an increase in COVID-19 viral levels. It comes as emergency room visits, nationwide, have increased for diagnosed cases.In the latest available data from the Centers for Disease Control from July 20 to July 27, COVID viral levels in wastewater increased 11.7% nationwide. They reached their highest levels since January.New Jersey has what's classified as a moderate level of COVID viral levels in wastewater, with a half-percent decrease from July 20 to July 27. The presence of the virus in Pennsylvania wastewater increased by nearly 35%, reaching what the CDC classifies as a "high" level.In Delaware, the designation is "very high," with levels there rising nearly 39% in the same aforementioned week.Dr. Carlene Muto, the medical director of Infection Prevention at Temple Health, says wastewater levels are a useful tool."It sort of predicts what's going to happen in the next couple of weeks. So we see it in the wastewater then we see the disease incidents go up," she said.The CDC also reports an increase in emergency room visits related to diagnosed cases of COVID. While those visits don't make up a huge percentage of emergency room patients, the rate by which the visits increased is worth noting. They were up 26% in Pennsylvania; up nearly 25% in New Jersey; and up 21.8% in Delaware.
Boston wastewater reveals summer COVID-19 spike across several neighborhoods— Wastewater from several Boston neighborhoods contains evidence of a significant summer spike in COVID-19 activity, according to the Boston Public Health Commission.BPHC officials said the level of the virus in wastewater during July was more than double the citywide average in May.Based on the data, the BPHC said virus levels in wastewater are classified as “high” or “very high” in Roxbury, Mattapan, Allston/Brighton, Back Bay, and Roslindale/West Roxbury."While the average level of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater was 163% higher in July as compared to May, they are trending downward," the BPHC statement said.Wastewater monitoring at a regional level began with a partnership between the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority and Biobot Analytics in March 2020. Bostonimplemented neighborhood-level testing sites in 2022. In addition to the wastewater data, the BPHC reported that related hospitalizations in July were up 62% over May.
Study: Heart attack drop during pandemic part of ongoing trend - A recent study in JAMA Cardiologyexplores why acute myocardial infarction (AMI) hospital visits dropped so sharply after the COVID-19 pandemic began, and found the reason is likely twofold: initial care avoidance and the continuation of a downward trend in AMI incidence in the United States.The study was based on claims from all traditional Medicare enrollees in a given month from January 2016 through June 2023. AMIs were defined as any emergency department visit, observation stay, or inpatient stay with a primary diagnosis of myocardial infarction.On average, each month included 31,623,928 patients. Between June 2019 and June 2023, AMI hospital encounters dropped by 20%, from 0.055 AMI hospital encounters per 100 patients in 2019 to 0.044 AMI hospital encounters per 100 patients in 2023. Some have suggested this decrease is because COVID-19 killed patients who would have had an AMI, but the authors counter that idea. Though the initial months of the pandemic brought a sharp decline in case numbers, likely because people avoided hospitals, the overall trend is due to the ongoing annual drop in AMI incidence, which has been declining from 1% to 5% per year. The success was due to trends in smoking cessation, greater use of hypertension and other cardiovascular medications, and improved diagnostic and treatment procedures, the authors wrote. In an editor's note, the editors said the research shows a careful examination of an at-times perplexing phenomenon, "Once the acuity of the pandemic subsided, the expected time-related and years-long decrease in AMI rates was again on track."
US COVID activity continues to pick up -August 9- US COVID indicators show no sign of slowing down, with most areas of the country seeing consistent rises, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latest data updates. Emergency department encounters for COVID make up 2.3% of all visits, up 4.1% from the previous week. Levels are highest—in the moderate range—across the South and Southeast. Wastewater detections continue to rise steadily and are now at the very high level. Levels continue to trend upward in all US regions and are highest in the West, followed by the South and Midwest. Test positivity for COVID is still rising and is at 17.6% nationally, up 1.2% compared to the previous week. Test positivity is highest in the region that includes Texas and surrounding states. Hospitalization rates are still elevated and are highest in people ages 65 and older. Deaths from the virus continue to trend upward, with a 7.1% rise from the previous week. COVID deaths still make up a small proportion of US fatalities, just 1.5%.
Hospitalization linked to higher risk of MRSA infections in households --A new study suggests that people who've recently been hospitalized could potentially be a major source of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) transmission in households.The study, published yesterday in Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology, found that household members exposed to a family member recently diagnosed with MRSA were more than 71 times more likely to get a MRSA infection than those who had not been exposed to a family member with MRSA. But the study also found that exposure to recently hospitalized patients with no MRSA diagnosis was associated with an increased risk of MRSA infection, likely because those patients had been colonized with MRSA during their hospital stay. "Patients can become colonized with MRSA during their hospital stay and transmit MRSA to their household members," lead study author Aaron Miller, PhD, an assistant professor of internal medicine-infectious diseases at the University of Iowa, said in a press release from journal publisher the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America (SHEA). "This suggests hospitals contribute to the spread of MRSA into the community through discharged patients who are asymptomatic carriers." MRSA has long been a common cause of healthcare-associated infections in US hospitals, particularly in patients who've had surgeries or have indwelling devices. It can cause skin infections and more severe invasive infections. There are also community-associated strains of MRSA that cause skin infections in otherwise healthy people and can easily be transmitted in crowded settings and households through skin-to-skin contact. Some people carry MRSA on their skin without ever becoming infected.To determine the extent to which recent MRSA diagnosis and hospitalization might increase the risk of MRSA transmission in households, Miller and his colleagues extracted patient data from a large commercial insurance database from 2001 through 2021, limiting the population to households with two or more family members on the same insurance plan. They then identified cases of MRSA in both inpatient and outpatient settings and compared the monthly incidence of MRSA between individuals in households where another member had been diagnosed with MRSA in an inpatient or outpatient setting within the last 30 days, and individuals in households with no recent MRSA exposure. In a second analysis, they looked at MRSA incidence in households where a family member had recently been hospitalized but not diagnosed with MRSA.Among the more than 157 million enrollees included in the study, the researchers identified 424,512 MRSA cases in 343,524 individuals. Of the MRSA cases identified, 4,724 (1.1%) represented a possible transmission linked to a recent MRSA diagnosis in a separate family member, and 8,064 (1.9%) represented possible transmission after recent hospitalization of a separate family member.A stratified regression analysis found that the estimated incidence rate of MRSA among those exposed to a family member with a MRSA diagnosis was more than 71 times the rate compared with those not exposed to a family member with MRSA (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 71.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 67.73 to 74.50). Among those individuals who had a family member who was recently hospitalized but not diagnosed with MRSA, the IRR of MRSA was 1.44 (95% CI, 1.39 to 1.49).
WHO considers public health emergency as mpox cases mount in Africa World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said yesterday he is considering naming the ongoing mpox outbreak in Africa a public health emergency of international concern (PEHIC), the strongest designation for a public health outbreak. "I am considering convening an International Health Regulations emergency committee to advise me on whether the outbreak of mpox should be declared a public health emergency of international concern," Tedros announced on X. "More funding and support for a comprehensive response are needed." The outbreak features infections caused by clade 1b of the virus, which was first detected last fall in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Clade 1b is more deadly than clade 2, which was the virus strain that fueled the global outbreak of mpox seen among men who have sex with men (MSM) in 2022 and 2023. The case-fatality rate (CFR) for clade 2 is 0.2%, while 1b’s CFR is roughly 3% to 6%. Clade 1 has the highest CFR, of around 10%.The current outbreak has been concentrated in the DRC, but more and more African countries are reporting spillover outbreaks. The DRC outbreak stands at 13,791 cases (2,628 confirmed; 11,163 suspected) and 450 deaths (CFR: 3.3%),Over the weekend South Africa said it now has 22 cases of the virus, including 3 deaths. Clade 1b seems to be spreading in both household transmission patterns and among sexual networks. Uganda also reported its first two new cases of the virus, both imported from DRC.The WHO declared a PHEIC for the 2022 mpox outbreak, which lasted from July 2022 to May 2023. That outbreak was subsequently contained in the United States and Europe with the widespread use of vaccines, but those vaccines have not been widely available in poorer African nations.
WHO to convene emergency committee to weigh mpox spread in Africa - The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) today announced that he will convene an emergency committee to assess the threat from a complex mpox situation in Africa that has seen the spread of a novel clade beyond the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and outbreaks in multiple countries involving two earlier clades. In announcing the step at a media briefing, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said he made the decision based on spread of a novel mpox clade outside the DRC and the potential for spread to other African nations and the rest of the world. He said the outside expert group will meet as soon as possible. Emergency committees typically make recommendations and assess whether the situation warrants a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). The decision over whether to recommend a PHEIC hinges on whether the threat is new, if the disease is crossing international borders, and if international collaboration is needed to control the spread. Tedros said the WHO has been working with affected countries, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), and nongovernmental groups to better understand the drivers of the outbreaks. "Stopping transmission will require a comprehensive response, with communities at the center," he said. Novel clade spread to DRC neighbors The DRC has been experiencing a severe outbreak since 2022, with more than 14,000 cases reported this year, 511 of them fatal, according to the WHO. The outbreak in the eastern DRC, originally centered in South Kivu and now in North Kivu provinces, is due to a novel clade 1b virus that is thought to cause more severe disease than other clades. As earlier feared, four neighboring countries that haven't reported mpox cases before have recently reported 50 confirmed illnesses, along with other suspected cases. The clade 1b virus has now been confirmed in Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda, and the clade in Burundi is still under investigation. At the same time, the mpox clade 1a virus—endemic in some African countries—is fueling outbreaks in other parts of the DRC, as well as the Central African Republic and the Republic of Congo. And the global clade 2 strain has triggered outbreaks in Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Nigeria, and South Africa. Clade 2 is the strain that caused the global outbreak that began in 2022. Tedros said the WHO has already drawn up a regional response plan that will require $15 million and has freed up an initial $1 million from its emergency contingency fund. He said he has started the process for emergency use listing of two mpox vaccines already approved by some nations in the region and already recommended by the WHO's vaccine advisory group. "WHO is grateful to Japan, the United States, the European Union, and manufacturers for working with us on vaccine donations," he said. Rosamund Lewis, MSc, the WHO's technical lead on mpox, said scientists are still assessing whether the new clade is more transmissible and severe, but she said it seems to be transmitting efficiently through sexual contact, especially through interlinked sexual networks that can fuel rapid spread, and has been linked to some severe infections and deaths. She added that household contact, fomites, and respiratory spread may be contributing to the spread of the virus. Most affected patients are adults, but children are more vulnerable, Lewis said, adding that severity is dependent on circulation context. The overall case fatality rate in the DRC is 3.6%, with higher rates seen in endemic areas of the country's central, western, and northern provinces and lower rates in the eastern part of the country. Death rates have been highest in children, who are contracting the virus through household contact, and lower in adults who contract the virus through sexual transmission. Lewis said the proportion of infections in sex workers has dropped some as the virus spreads in the community to students, business people, and travelers. She said the outbreaks are complex and require contextualized and localized responses. Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, acting director of WHO’s Department of Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Prevention, said scientists still need to learn more about the epidemiology to tackle the multicountry outbreaks, which she said will help form tailored response approaches. "It's a plea and thank you for the sequencing that's being done and to ask for even more," she said.
Poll: Americans' knowledge, concern about mpox has dropped - As a large mpox outbreak in Africa has set off alarm bells in the global health community, Americans' knowledge of the virus and risk factors surrounding transmission has dropped compared to just 2 years ago, according to new survey from researchers at the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania. The survey of 1,496 US adults conducted last month shows only 5% of Americans are worried about contracting mpox in the next 3 months, compared to 21% in August 2022, when a global outbreak primarily among men who have sex with men was infecting thousands of Americans and Europeans. Only 9% of those polled last month are worried that they or their family members will contract mpox. The 2022 outbreak was fueled by infections caused by clade 2 of the virus, which is significantly less deadly than the clade 1 strain currently fueling the outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and surrounding countries. Though no clade 1 cases have been described in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention earlier this week said US clinicians should be on alert for any symptoms of mpox in patients who had recently been to the DRC or bordering countries.
PAHO upgrades Oropouche virus risk, probes more fetal deaths - The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) recently issued an epidemiological alert for rising Oropouche virus infections, urging countries to step up surveillance amid spread to new areas, reports of the first deaths, and suspected maternal transmission. Oropouche virus is typically spread by a species of biting midge called Culicoides paraensis, but multiple factors including climate change, deforestation, and urbanization have contributed spread beyond Brazil's Amazon region to countries that haven't reported cases before, including Bolivia and Cuba.Since the first of the year, 8,078 cases have been reported from five countries, mostly from Brazil. The others include Bolivia, Peru, Colombia, and Cuba. Two deaths have been reported, both from Brazil. Both of the fatal cases occurred in young women who didn't have underlying health conditions.Brazilian officials are investigating a link between Oropouche virus and poor fetal outcomes. So far, the country has reported one fetal death, a miscarriage, and four newborns with microcephaly. The country is also investigating three more possible cases of maternal transmission, all involving fetal deaths reported from Pernambuco state. In one of the three cases, the Oropouche virus genome was detected in fetal tissue and blood samples. In an updated risk assessment, PAHO said the investigation into the rise in activity is still underway and the trajectory is unknown. However, it upgraded the risk for the region to high based on a moderate level of confidence. In a related development, three countries in Europe have now reported 10 imported Oropouche virus cases, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said in its latest weekly communicable disease update. Italy and Spain had reported earlier cases, and now Germany has also reported two similar illnesses. Nine cases involved people who visited Cuba, and one person had traveled to Brazil. The ECDC said the risk to European travelers is low if they protect themselves from midges or mosquitoes that spread the virus. It also added the risk of local spread in Europe is low, due to the absence of competent vectors.
CDC reports more cases and another death in deli meat Listeria outbreak -- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today reported 9 more illnesses and 1 more death in a Listeria monocytogenes outbreak linked to certain meats sliced at delis, raising the national total to 43 infections, 3 of them fatal. The number of affected stated remained the same, at 13.The latest death occurred in a patient from Virginia. All patients identified as part of the outbreak have been hospitalized. Of 34 people who were interviewed about the foods they ate before they got sick, 32 reported eating deli meats. Of 33 people who were asked about exposure to liverwurst, 18 said they had eaten sliced liverwurst before they became ill, of which 13 had consumed the Boar's Head brand. The deli meats were sliced at supermarket and grocery store delis. Maryland and Baltimore health officials had previously identified Listeria in an unopened Boar's Head liverwurst sample. In its update, the CDC said New York's lab testing has also identified Listeria in an unopened Boar's Head liverwurst sample. It added that whole-genome sequencing has determined the Listeria from both samples is the same strain making people sick. On July 26, Boar's Head recalled liverwurst and other deli meat made on the same production line, owin to possible Listeria contamination. On July 30 it expanded the recall to include about 7 million pounds of its ready-to-eat meat and poultry products. The recall covers 71 products made under the Boar's Head and Old County brands, which mainly include products meant for slicing at delis, but also some packaged items sold at retail stores. The products were distributed nationally, with some exported to the Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic, Mexico, and Panama.
Organic and regular dark chocolate contaminated by lead and cadmium, study finds | CNN -Dark chocolate and similar cocoa products are contaminated with lead and cadmium, two neurotoxic metals that are linked to cancer, chronic disease, or reproductive and developmental issues, especially in children, a new study found. As natural elements in the Earth’s crust, lead, cadmium and other heavy metals are in the soil in which crops are grown and thus can’t be avoided. Some crop fields and regions, however, contain more toxic levels than others, partly due to the overuse of metal-containing fertilizers and ongoing industrial pollution. However, despite growing on land with fewer pesticides and other contaminants, organic versions of dark chocolate had some of the highest levels, according to the study published Wednesday in the journal Frontiers in Nutrition. Dark chocolate is known for being rich in plant nutrients called flavonoids, antioxidants and beneficial minerals and has been linked to improved cardiovascular health, cognitive performance and less chronic inflammation.The research team examined only pure dark chocolate products as they contain the highest amount of cacao, the raw, unprocessed part of the cacao bean. Candies or baking chocolates with other ingredients were eliminated. The study did not disclose the names or manufacturers of the tested products.“The average levels of lead and cadmium in cocoa-containing products in the new study are at or above the average amounts the US Food and Drug Administration finds for lead and cadmium in the most highly contaminated foods they test,” said Jane Houlihan, the national director of science and health for Healthy Babies Bright Futures, a coalition of advocates committed to reducing babies’ exposures to neurotoxic chemicals.Baby food sweet potatoes, baby food teething biscuits, sandwich cookies, white wine and ranch dressing top the FDA’s list of foods most contaminated with lead, while sunflower seeds, spinach, potato chips, leaf lettuce and french fries contain the highest levels of cadmium, Houlihan said. “If typical health risks from eating chocolate fall below the federal government’s official safe thresholds, it is because people normally eat fairly small amounts,” said Houlihan, who was not involved in the study.“We’d expect heightened risks for young children, pregnant women, and people who eat chocolate regularly, especially dark chocolate.”
In older adults, common oral antibiotics linked to higher risk of serious skin reactions -New research shows that commonly prescribed oral antibiotics are tied to increased risk of severe skin reactions in older adults.In a study published yesterday in JAMA, researchers in Toronto looked at two decades worth of data on hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits for serious cutaneous adverse drug reactions (cADRs) and found significant associations with the use of sulfonamides, cephalosporins, and other commonly prescribed classes of antibiotics.cADRs are a group of drug hypersensitivity reactions that can start as rashes but develop into more serious and potentially life-threatening reactions involving internal organs. Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) andtoxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) are two of the more severe examples."Our results highlight the risk of serious cADRs following commonly prescribed antibiotics and underscore the importance of judicious prescribing, with preferential use of antibiotics associated with a lower risk when clinically appropriate," the study authors wrote.For the case-control study, researchers with the University of Toronto, the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES), and the Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre analyzed administrative health databases in Toronto from April 2002 through March 2022, focusing on adults aged 66 years or older who had received at least one oral antibiotic. They then looked for case-patients who had an ED visit or hospitalization for a serious cADR within 60 days of an antibiotic prescription."Clinicians have speculated that certain antibiotics carry greater risk for these severe reactions, but no study has ever confirmed these claims," study co-author Erika Lee, MD, an allergist with the University of Toronto, said in an ICES press release. "Our objective was to explore the risk for cADRs in a population of older adults, who tend to receive disproportionately more antibiotic prescriptions than younger adults."Over the study period, the researchers identified 3,257,181 older adults with an outpatient antibiotic prescription, of whom 21,758 had an ED visit or hospitalization for a cADR within 60 days of the prescription. They matched them with 87,205 control patients who were similar with regard to demographics, comorbidities, and healthcare use but who'd had no hospital encounter related to a cADR.Among the cases and controls, the most commonly prescribed antibiotics were penicillins (28.9%), cephalosporins (18.2%), fluoroquinolones (16.5%), macrolides (14.8%), nitrofurantoin (8.6%), and sulfonamides (6.2%). Multivariable analysis found that sulfonamides were the antibiotic class most strongly associated with cADRs relative to macrolides, with almost triple the risk (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.7 to 3.1), followed by cephalosporins (aOR, 2.6; 95% CI, 2.5 to 2.8). But all other antibiotic classes were also associated with increased risk of serious cADRs, including nitrofurantoin (aOR, 2.2; 95% CI, 2.1 to 2.4), penicillins (aOR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.3 to 1.5), and fluoroquinolones (aOR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.2 to 1.4).The crude rate of ED visits or hospitalization for cADRs was highest for cephalosporins (4.92 per 1,000 prescriptions; 95% CI, 4.86 to 4.99) and sulfonamide antibiotics (3.22 per 1,000 prescriptions; 95% CI, 3.15 to 3.28). Among the 2,852 case-patients (13.1%) who were hospitalized for cADRs, the median length of hospital stay was 6 days, 9.6% required transfer to a critical care unit, and 5.3% died in the hospital. Fifty patients were identified as having SJS/TEN, 10 (20%) of whom died.
Coinfecting viruses obstruct each other's cell invasion -- The process by which phages—viruses that infect and replicate within bacteria—enter cells has been studied for over 50 years. In a new study, researchers from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and Texas A&M University have used cutting-edge techniques to look at this process at the level of a single cell."The field of phage biology has seen an explosion over the last decade because more researchers are realizing the significance of phages in ecology, evolution, and biotechnology," said Ido Golding, a professor of physics. "This work is unique because we looked at phage infection at the level of individual bacterialcells."The process of phage infection involves the attachment of the virus to the surface of a bacterium. Following this, the virus injects its genetic material into the cell. After entering, a phage can either force the cell to produce more phages and eventually explode, a process called cell lysis, or the phage can integrate its genome into the bacterial one and remain dormant, a process called lysogeny. The outcome depends on how many phages are simultaneously infecting the cell. A single phage causes lysis, while infection by multiple phages results in lysogeny. In the current study, the researchers wanted to ask whether the number of infecting phages that bind to the bacterial surface corresponds to the amount of viral genetic material that is injected into the cell. To do so, they fluorescently labeled both the protein shell of the phages and the genetic material inside. They then grew Escherichia coli, used different concentrations of infecting phages, and tracked how many of them were able to inject their genetic material into E. coli."We have known since the 70s that when multiple phages infect the same cell, it impacts the outcome of the infection. In this paper, we were able to take precise measurements unlike any study done so far," Golding said.The researchers were surprised to find that the entry of a phage's genetic material could be impeded by the other coinfecting phages. They found that when there were more phages attached to the surface of the cell, relatively fewer of them were able to enter."Our data shows that the first stage of infection, phage entry, is an important step that was previously underappreciated," Golding said. "We found that the coinfecting phages were impeding each other's entry by perturbing the electrophysiology of the cell."The outermost layer of bacteria is constantly dealing with the movement of electrons and ions that are crucial for energy generation and transmitting signals in and out of the cell. Over the past decade, researchers have started realizing the importance of this electrophysiology in other bacterial phenomena, including antibiotic resistance. This paper opens a new avenue for research in bacterial electrophysiology—its role in phage biology."By influencing how many phages actually enter, these perturbations affect the choice between lysis and lysogeny. Our study also shows that entry can be impacted by environmental conditions such as the concentration of various ions," Golding said.
Clinicians detail H5N1 infections in 2 Michigan farm workers - A group led by Michigan clinicians yesterday described two H5N1 avian flu infections in dairy workers who were sick in May, one with conjunctivitis and the other with more systemic flulike symptoms. They detailed their findings in a letter to theNew England Journal of Medicine. The workers were employed at two separate farms. The first patient began having right-eye symptoms 1 day after milk had splashed in their eye while milking a cow. The worker had not been wearing personal protective equipment. Nasopharyngeal samples were negative in tests at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), but the eye swab sample was positive for H5N1 influenza. Meanwhile, the worker from the second farm sought evaluation at an urgent care clinic after experiencing symptoms such as cough, shortness of breath, sore throat, and fever. Illness signs turned up in the cows 1 day before the worker's symptoms began, and H5N1 was confirmed in the herd 1 week later. The worker had cared for sick cows, including administering oral fluid therapy, which typically involves contact with the animal's oral secretions. The worker used eye protection and gloves, but not a respirator or a mask.On day 8 of illness, the patient was given oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and began home isolation. Symptoms began improving 24 hours after treatment began. Testing of a nasopharyngeal sample at the CDC was positive for H5 influenza, which the CDC later identified as H5N1. Eye and oropharyngeal samples were negative. The authors said the infections highlight the ongoing risk to farm workers who are exposed to raw milk and secretions from infected cows. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today added one more dairy herd from Colorado to its list of confirmed H5N1 outbreaks, raising the national total to 190 from 13 states. Colorado is the hardest-hit state, with 63 of the confirmed outbreaks. Meanwhile, APHIS confirmed one more outbreak in poultry, which involves a facility in Florida's Miami-Dade County that has 5,400 birds. In July, APHIS had reported H5N1 outbreaks in three Miami-Dade live-bird markets.
Cambodia reports second H5N1 case in less than a week - Cambodia's health ministry on August 3 announced a second human H5N1 avian influenza in less than a week, which involves a 16-year-old girl who is hospitalized in serious condition, according to a statement translated and posted by Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog. The girl is from the same province (Svay Rieng), but a different town, as a case announced earlier in the week. About 4 days before her symptoms began, she touched and held dead chickens that died at her house and her neighbor's house. The girl's illness marks Cambodia's ninth case this year. So far, the clade isn't known, but the country's earlier cases were linked to an older 2.3.2.1c clade that circulates in some Asian countries, including Cambodia. Since early 2023, Cambodia has reported a rise in H5N1 infections, which are often severe of fatal. The country has now reported 15 cases since February 2023.
Colorado, Michigan report H3N2v flu infections - The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment has reported a variant H3N2 (H3N2v) flu case, which involves a person younger than 18 who attended an agricultural event before symptoms began, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its weekly flu update.The patient sought medical care the week of July 13 and was not hospitalized. No related illnesses have been found among the patient's contacts, and the investigation is ongoing.Separately, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services today said tests have confirmed H3N2v flu in a resident of Ingham County whose samples tested positive in late July. The results were confirmed by the CDC. The source of the patient's exposure is still under investigation, and so far there is no known exposure to swine or other animals.The two cases raise the number of variant flu cases this year to five. The three others involved variant H1N2 (H1N2v) and occurred in patients in Pennsylvania. Most variant flu cases are linked to contact with pigs, and the United States typically experiences a summer rise that comes with exposure at agricultural fairs.
USDA confirms more H5N1 in dairy cows, wild birds, and small mammals - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) hasconfirmed three more H5N1 avian influenza outbreaks in dairy cattle, raising the national total to 181 from 13 states.In other updates, APHIS also reported more detections in wild birds in mammals. The group reported about more than 100 more H5N1 detections in wild birds across several states. Some were waterfowl taken by hunters and were sampled last fall. However, several were agency-harvested birds from Colorado's Weld County, which has been a recent hot spot for dairy cow outbreaks, poultry outbreaks, and human illnesses. Species in Weld County that tested positive included doves, sparrows, starlings, and pigeons.Regarding mammals, APHIS over the past few days has reported 27 more detections, raising its confirmed number to 373. Most of the newly confirmed positives involve deer mice and house mice from Weld County in Colorado. The group also included three domestic cats from Larimer County in Colorado, plus a rabbit and a vole from Weld County.
100 million dead birds later, avian flu persists. Blame our policies. - We are surpassing a grim historic milestone: more than 100 million chickens and turkeys dead or culled due to highly pathogenic avian influenza.Since the start of this outbreak in 2022, we have heard from many experts about the alarming ways that this strain of H5N1 in animals could be transmitted to people and cause a pandemic. We’ve also heard from the government that our agencies are relatively unalarmed: The outbreak in animals is under control, and the risk to the human population is low.Our nearly 40 combined years working in disaster science and policy alarms us about something else: the inattention we see not only to the underlying drivers of emerging infectious diseases like avian flu but also to the mangled incentive structures that characterize prevention and preparedness for H5N1 and other disasters.Let’s put this in perspective. Comprehensive depopulation, or culling, at affected poultry farms, is the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s official policy to “stamp out” the spread of any strain of a high-path bird-flu virus. A 2015 outbreak resulted in more than 50 million dead birds from disease and culling.This was the highest mortality number the U.S. had ever seen to that point and represented an aggressive, five-month push to eradicate the pathogen. Which it did — until it reappeared in Indiana seven months later. The approach is not working. Constantly evolving strains of the virus circulate relentlessly in wild birds, catching a free ride North, South, East and West across massive migratory bird flyways. This ever-present source of transmission to domestic species, combined with the almost incomprehensible numbers of farmed animals in the United States (about 10 billion per year), makes this a problem that the status quo way of doing things is ill-conceived to address.Few policymakers are speaking of the 100 million. Most of them are incentivized to swallow that number in exchange for the electoral compensation — votes — that comes with it. Votes come from responses to disasters, not preparedness for them. This reality is usually driven by financial resources that flow to people in the response and recovery phases of disasters.With H5N1, the government is reimbursing poultry producers for birds culled due to an outbreak on their premises; this incentivizes poultry producers to report suspected flu outbreaks, and early. Here’s what the USDA pays them for: indemnity for each culled bird, depopulation and disposal, compensation for materials destroyed and “virus elimination” such as disinfection of housing structures. As of the start of this year, indemnity payments alone were at $715 million; total costs are likely well over $1 billion by now. Bipartisan legislation would further increase compensation levels.Why not just vaccinate? Vaccinating flocks would, according to current trade agreements, prohibit export to many countries and thereby preclude huge earnings from the $5 billion poultry export sector. Vaccination is, therefore, prohibited.What this means is that many flocks are probably culled despite being predominantly healthy. It also means that producers are incentivized to raise as many animals as possible in the ways that they always have.We see the incentive dysfunction playing out in the virus’ latest victim, dairy cows. Despite a dire need for data on how this virus is behaving in cows, much of the industry appears disinterested in sharing samples and information federally. The USDA has only mandated testing for the subset of cattle crossing state lines and is trying to incentivize further testing of herds by covering the cost and by paying producers for lost milk production in confirmed cases of infection. The taxpayer already subsidizes the dairy industry to the tune of $20 billion annually, and the government is now feeling forced to infuse even more money into an already massively subsidized system in return for basic information that could help stop the next pandemic.The crop and commodity subsidy system has its roots in the Great Depression, a historical event that dramatically incentivized the federal government to provide aid to farmers to help ensure the food supply and a livelihood for the people supplying the food. However, it has become outdated and even harmful in its present state. Research shows how federal subsidies for the food system can inflate prices, exacerbate overproduction and worsen the obesity epidemic.Throwing money at the response in this way is a symptom of a broader malady in governance, one that subsidizes entrenched entitlements while failing to take preparedness steps that would garner little attention from the electorate but would meaningfully advance change.
Researchers calculate up to a billion birds may die in the US each year due to collisions with windows -A team of ornithologists from the Fordham University Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, the NYC Bird Alliance, Inc, and the Max Planck Institute for Geoanthropology has found evidence that far more birds are killed by window collisions than previously thought. In their study, published in PLOS ONE, the group analyzed wildlife rehabilitation records for thousands of birds involved in window collisions. Prior research has shown that windows are a major hazard for birds—birds cannot see windows and fly right into them. Such collisions often lead to near-instant death—others lead to a stunning effect, where the bird crashes to the ground, only to recover moments later and fly away. There are also collisions that result in injuries to the bird that it may or may not recover from. Scientists have estimated that hundreds of millions of birds die each year in the U.S. alone due to window collisions. This new research suggests that the number is far higher. The researchers began their study by noting that most window collision calculations are derived by adding up counts of dead birds found on the ground below windows. But such counts, they note, fail to consider the number of birds that survive the initial collision but die later due to injuries. To estimate how many birds die from window collisions after surviving the initial impact, the team studied data from eight states regarding 3,100 avian collision cases over the years 2016 to 2021. They found that most birds that were discovered and treated still died due to injuries they sustained in the collision. More specifically, they found that the death rate was 60%—mainly due to brain injuries. They note that it was not uncommon for a bird to wake up after a collision and fly away, seemingly unharmed. Unfortunately, many such birds can experience the same types of symptoms that happen to people in car accidents, such as brain swelling, which almost always leads to death in birds. Taking such cases into account increases the total number of bird deaths due to window collisions to approximately 1 billion a year in the U.S. The team notes that preventing bird deaths due to window collisions is relatively easy—it only requires adhering tape or stickers to windows and to turn off lights behind them during migration season.
How feeding birds may be polluting local environments -- New research led by an NAU alumnus shows that backyard bird feeders, although put out with the best of intentions, is changing the chemistry of local ecosystems, including introducing a potentially harmful amount of phosphorus into the environment. The study, published Aug. 7 in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, shows that, collectively, the millions of household bird feeders throughout the world add up to a large transfer of additional nutrients into local environments. This artificial supplementing of a natural process may lead to unanticipated ecological impacts. "The seeds, nuts and grains provided for birds are rich with fats and proteins," said NAU alumnus Andrew Abraham, a researcher from Aarhus University in Denmark and lead author of the study. "Yet most of this nutrient-rich bird food is sourced on the global market and transported thousands of kilometers to feeder stations." "Birds are incredibly effective dispersers," said Ethan Duvall, a researcher from Cornell and co-author on the study. "They eat a lot, fly a lot and poop a lot. This means that extra nutrients provided at feeders eventually make their way into local ecosystems." In their research, which examined the United Kingdom as a case study, Abraham and colleagues found that the scale of phosphorus supply in supplementary foods provided for garden and game birds equalled about 2.4 Gg/year. While phosphorus is an essential element for both plants and animals, too much of it can cause problems. Concerningly, phosphorus release by bird feeding was comparable to other human activities, such as industrial waste and sewage misconnects, which are considered environmental polluters. The greatest supply of extra nutrients was provided for game birds. The researchers found that each year, more than twice as much phosphorus was provided to pheasants, partridges and other game birds compared to garden birds. This supplementary food constitutes a significant component of game bird nutritional intake and helps elevate densities beyond the natural carrying capacity. While this may benefit land owners in the short-term, it could spell ecological trouble in the long-term. "When additional nutrients from bird feeding enter natural environments, they have profound consequences for the species that live there," Abraham said. "If bird feeding occurs at high rates or over long periods of time, it can begin to change the fertility of the landscape, upsetting the balance of the ecosystem. "Eventually, the nutrients in bird feed are washed into rivers, where they may also exacerbate issues of eutrophication"—that is, they may produce too many rich nutrients, causing algae to grow too densely and harming animals that live in or near the rivers.
Ice rink fumes have sent kids to the hospital: Few states require tests - Last December, dozens of young hockey players were rushed to hospitals in the Buffalo, New York, area—some vomiting, lethargic and suffering from headaches. The skaters had been exposed to high levels of carbon monoxide at an indoor ice rink, a problem that is far from uncommon. Most rinks use ice resurfacing machines—often known by the brand name of Zamboni—and edgers that often run on propane or other fuels. Some use gas-powered heaters above seating areas. Without proper ventilation, the fumes from that equipment can build up high levels of poisonous gases such as carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide. "It's almost akin to running the car in the garage with the door closed," said New York Democratic Assemblymember Monica Wallace, whose district includes the ice rink where the poisoning incident occurred. "And it's in rinks that are used frequently by children, where people are breathing heavily when they're playing." While the young skaters in New York all recovered, Wallace learned that they were far from the first to suffer from a mass poisoning event at an ice arena. Within the past decade, similar incidents have sent handfuls to scores of ice rink visitors to the hospital in Delaware, Illinois, Ohio and Wisconsin. Some state health officials say many more incidents don't make the news. And as families around the country begin hockey training camps and wrap up registration for fall leagues, health experts note that many ice rink visitors may be unknowingly suffering from lower-level exposures that can cause long-term damage. As Wallace researched previous incidents across the country, the former hockey mom was even more surprised to find only three states require their rinks to test air quality and meet certain safety thresholds. "It seems pretty surprising that this is such an issue," she said. "Until it happened in my district, I had no idea." Earlier this year, Wallace drafted a bill that would require New York ice rink owners to monitor their air quality. At certain thresholds, they would be required to increase ventilation, notify state officials, or evacuate the rink. In many rinks, especially in older structures, ventilation occurs near the top of the building, so as not to pull warmer outside air near the ice surface. But that can allow gases to settle into the skating area unless they are cleared out by exhaust fans.
Olympic Athletes Fall Ill After Swim in the Seine: Is Water Quality to Blame? --A small number of Olympic athletes have reportedly fallen illopens in a new tab or window shortly after the swimming portion of triathlon events held in the Seine resumed in Paris.Though the illnesses have not been officially linked to bacteria or other microbes in the river, high levels of contamination in bodies of water have the potential to cause health issues, ranging from gastrointestinal and skin infections to eye, ear, and upper airway irritation, an infectious disease expert previously explained to MedPage Today. Belgian Olympic team triathlete Claire Michel was hospitalized and treated for an E. coli infection Sunday after swimming in the Seine last Wednesday, according to the Associated Pressopens in a new tab or window. The team forfeited Monday's mixed competition triathlon.Just 3 days after the men's triathlon, the Switzerland Olympic team said that one of its athletes had a stomach infection and would not compete in the mixed relay event, the AP reportedopens in a new tab or window. However, it was "impossible to say" if the athlete's infection was linked to water quality in the Seine, the team said in a statement. Meanwhile, the Swiss athlete's replacement also fell ill with a stomach infection, but Swiss officials said that athlete hadn't previously been in the Seine, according to NBC's Today Showopens in a new tab or window.William Schaffner, MD, of Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tennessee and a spokesperson for the Infectious Diseases Society of America, cautioned against jumping to any conclusions about the reported illnesses in athletes who had been in the river. Anecdotes do not prove that there is a "rate of illness that exceeds the normally expected rate," he said. An individual can indeed get an infection from human or animal sewage containing viruses or bacteria that could upset their intestinal tract and lead to symptoms, such as vomiting, diarrhea, abdominal pain, and fever, Schaffner said. Water runoff from streets -- a problem with the heavy rains that have passed through Paris during the Olympic Games -- could also contain substances like oil and gasoline residue that could make a person ill if swallowed, he said."We all know that we shouldn't go swimming in polluted water," he said.All the while, Olympic event organizers had said that water quality tests completed the day of individual triathlon races indicated "very good" bacteria levels, according to the AP.opens in a new tab or windowWhen MedPage Today reportedopens in a new tab or window last week on high levels of bacteria that had returned to the Seine after a massive cleanup, Bruce Hirsch, MD, of North Shore University Hospital in Manhasset, New York, noted the volatility of water quality levels in any river.Concentrations of E. coli above 900 colony-forming units per 100 mL of water are considered unhealthy and potentially risky. And warm weather promotes bacterial growth, he pointed out.
Millions of gallons of wastewater overflow into Connecticut River --- Sewage overflows, caused by an overload of rain and wastewater have been reported in several Connecticut locations this week, as well as just over the Massachusetts border. A total of 20 so-called combined sewage overflow events since Aug. 4, were reported by the state Department of Energy and Environmental Protection as of Thursday.Most had been closed by Thursday, but five remained active – four in New Haven and one in Bridgeport, dumping rainwater, partially treated and untreated sewage into the Quinnipiac, Mill and West Rivers, New Haven Harbor and Burr Creek.Massachusetts authorities also said that 6.7 million gallons of combined rain and sewage were dumped into the Connecticut River in Holyoke, Mass. DEEP authorities have said that, though it dilutes, the sewage can make its way across the border into Connecticut. During a heavy storm, wastewater treatment plants often can’t handle the volume of both sewage and rainwater. It’s called a combined sewage overflow event, or a CSO. When that happens in Connecticut — and it does, every time it rains hard enough — affected residents and towns are alerted not to swim in local rivers, lakes or in Long Island Sound for 24 or 48 hours. Communities in Connecticut have been struggling with sewage treatment for more than a century. “While most communities in the northeast have separate collection and conveyance systems for sewage and stormwater, some older wastewater collection systems have systems that were designed more than 100 years ago,” said a DEEP spokesperson. The CSOs still active this week were caused by .6 inches worth of rain, according to DEEP data, though the amount of rainfall is only one factor to consider. A wastewater system might be able to handle one inch of rain over 24 hours. But if that rain falls instead over 30 minutes it could overwhelm water treatment facilities. There may have only been .6 inches of rain in a single storm this week, but it was torrential, several bands of thunderstorms pummeling the region over the weekend. According to the federal Environmental Protection Agency shorter, more intense storms are becoming more common. “In recent years, a larger percentage of precipitation has come in the form of intense single-day events,” the agency wrote.
NOAA reports 2024 ‘dead zone’ in Gulf of Mexico larger than average - The Gulf of Mexico’s “dead zone,” an area with dangerously low oxygen levels, spans approximately 17 365 km2 (6 705 miles2) this year, making it the 12th largest recorded in 38 years, according to NOAA-supported scientists. This expanse threatens over 1.6 million ha (4 million acres) of marine habitat, an area comparable to the size of New Jersey. NOAA-supported scientists announced on August 1, 2024, that this year’s Gulf of Mexico’s “dead zone,” an area of low to no oxygen that can kill fish and marine life, spans approximately 17 365 km2 (6 705 miles2). This expanse is the 12th largest on record in the 38 years of measurement, equating to more than 1.6 million ha (4 million acres) of habitat potentially unavailable to fish and bottom species, an area roughly the size of New Jersey. The annual dead zone survey was conducted by scientists from Louisiana State University and the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium (LUMCON) aboard the research vessel Pelican from July 21 to July 26. This measurement is crucial for the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force, a state and federal partnership aiming to reduce the five-year average extent of the dead zone to fewer than 4 921 km2 (1 900 miles2) by 2035. “It’s critical that we measure this region’s hypoxia as an indicator of ocean health, particularly under a changing climate and potential intensification of storms and increases in precipitation and runoff,” said Nicole LeBoeuf, assistant administrator of NOAA’s National Ocean Service, The five-year average size of the dead zone now stands at 11 129 km2 (4 298 miles2), more than twice the 2035 target. In June, NOAA predicted an above-average dead zone of 15 093 km2 (5 827 miles2), based on Mississippi River discharge and nutrient runoff data from the U.S. Geological Survey. The measured size of 17 365 km2 (6 705 miles2) fell within the forecast’s uncertainty range.
Study: Dogs can detect chronic wasting disease in white-tail deer - Chronic wasting disease, a fatal prion disease found in cervids, can be detected by dogs trained to identify the scent, according to a new study published today in PLoS One. The dogs were able to identify infected deer through feces samples. Six dogs were trained using scent boxes and fecal samples from both farmed and wild white-tail deer (WTD)."A session consisted of 20 trials for each of the six dogs with the position of each box being pseudo-randomized for each trial. During initial training for the passive "sit" response, it took 8 sessions to solidify the desired behavioral response," the authors wrote. "One randomly positioned box of the five held a vial containing fecal material collected from a CWD infected WTD." After 2 days of scent box testing the animals were field tested, and then were given various tests to sniff out CWD, all with more than 80% accuracy."CWD management is complicated by the lack of practical, rapid, non-invasive, live-animal screening tests," the authors wrote. "This study adds to our understanding of the fundamentals of mammalian olfaction and how it can be leveraged to be used as an important tool in the surveillance and management of CWD." The authors of the study said next steps would include determining if dogs can detect the urine and feces of CWD infected deer at historical bait stations and long vacated salt licks.
Feds propose ESA protections for Florida lizard - The Fish and Wildlife Service is proposing federal protections for a Florida lizard found only on 10 islands just off the coast in the Gulf of Mexico.The Cedar Key mole skink, which has found its habitat altered by climate change and land development, would be listed as endangered, the agency said.In proposing the Endangered Species Act protections for the small lizard, FWS also outlined 2,713 acres of critical habitat on the Cedar Key islands, which are southwest of Gainesville. Known to burrow underground, the mole skinks are often found under leaves, seagrass and logs on beaches, the agency said in a news release.t About 40 percent of the proposed critical habitat in Levy County would overlap with proposed habitat for the red knot, a bird already listed as a threatened species.
Streetlights running all night makes leaves so tough that insects can't eat them, threatening the food chain --Light pollution disrupts circadian rhythms and ecosystems worldwide—but for plants, dependent on light for photosynthesis, its effects could be profound. Now scientists writing in Frontiers in Plant Science have found that exposure to high levels of artificial light at night makes tree leaves grow tougher and harder for insects to eat, threatening urban food chains."We noticed that, compared to natural ecosystems, tree leaves in most urban ecosystems generally show little sign of insect damage. We were curious as to why," said corresponding author Dr. Shuang Zhang of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. "Here we show that in two of the most common tree species in Beijing, artificial light at night led to increased leaf toughness and decreased levels of leaf herbivory."Artificial light has increased levels of night-time brightness by almost 10%: most of the world's population experiences light pollution every night. Because plant properties affect their interactions with other plants and animals, any changes to plants caused by artificial light could have a significant impact on the ecosystem."Leaves that are free of insect damage may bring comfort to people, but not insects," said Zhang. "Herbivory is a natural ecological process that maintains the biodiversity of insects." The scientists suspected that plants experiencing high levels of artificial light would focus on defense rather than growth, producing tougher leaves with more chemical defense compounds. To test this, they selected two common species of street tree: Japanese pagoda and green ash trees. Although these trees are similar in many ways, Japanese pagoda trees have smaller, softer leaves which herbivores prefer.The scientists identified 30 sampling sites spaced by roughly 100 meters on main roads which are usually illuminated all night. To determine the level of exposure to artificial lighting, they measured illuminance at each site. Almost 5,500 leaves were collected and evaluated for insect herbivory and traits that could be affected by artificial light, like size, toughness, water content, and levels of nutrients and chemical defenses. For both species of tree, higher levels of artificial light meant tougher leaves. The tougher the leaf, the less evidence of insect herbivory. The more intense the light, the more frequently scientists encountered leaves that showed no signs at all of herbivory. Japanese pagoda trees exposed to more artificial light had lower levels of nutrients like phosphorus: where Japanese pagoda leaves had more nutrients, more herbivory occurred. But green ash leaves were more strongly influenced by higher light levels: they had higher levels of nitrogen, smaller leaves, and lower chemical defenses. "Lower levels of herbivory imply lower abundances of herbivorous insects, which could in turn result in lower abundances of predatory insects, insect-eating birds, and so on. The decline of insects is a global pattern observed over recent decades. We should pay more attention to this trend."Although leaf toughness is a mechanical defense against predation, it is possible that other factors contribute to decreased herbivory: for instance, more light could make insects more visible to their predators. Further research will be needed to fully understand the effects of artificial light. "Our study was conducted in only one city and involved just two tree species," cautioned Zhang."This limitation hinders our ability to generalize the conclusions to broader spatial and taxonomic scales. Research on how urbanization affects insects and insect-related ecological processes is still in its infancy."
UK beekeepers and scientists tackle sticky problem of honey fraud --Lynne Ingram cuts a peaceful figure as she tends to a row of humming beehives in a leafy corner of Somerset, southwest England. But the master beekeeper, who has been keeping hives for more than 40 years, has found herself in a fight against a tricky and evolving foe—honey fraudsters.She founded the UK Honey Authenticity Network (HAN UK) in 2021 to raise awareness about natural honey and warn of the threat posed by fraud. "One of the impacts we're seeing all over the world is beekeepers going out of business," she said.Adulterated honey can be sold to retailers for a price several times lower than genuine producers can afford.As well as producing their own honey, many larger-scale beekeepers have crop pollination contracts with farmers, delivering thousands of colonies to growers across the country.If they go out of business due to unfair competition, this vital natural method of pollinating crops is reduced and food production suffers.The British Beekeepers Association, which represents more than 25,000 producers and where Ingram is a honey ambassador, wants the risk of fraud to be recognized to protect the industry and consumers. "I'd like to see an acknowledgement that there is actually an issue here," she said. In May, the European Union updated its honey regulations to ensure clearer product labeling and a "honey traceability system" to increase transparency.Behind the EU action is an apparent increase in adulterated honey arriving in the 27-nation bloc. The substandard adulterates can have adverse effects on consumers' health, such as raising the risk of diabetes, obesity, and liver or kidney damage.Between 2021 and 2022, 46 percent of the honey tested as it entered the EU was flagged as potentially fraudulent, up from 14 percent in the 2015-17 period. Of the suspicious consignments, 74 percent were of Chinese origin.Honey imported from the UK had a 100-percent suspicion rate.The EU said this honey was probably produced in third countries and blended again in the UK before being sent to the bloc.
Wheat waste: A phosphorus crisis? - Experiments published in Food and Energy Security by scientists at Queen Mary University of London and Royal Botanic Gardens suggest that we are globally wasting huge amounts of phosphorus. By studying pot-grown wheat plants, they show that wheat uses nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers at a ratio of 21 atoms of nitrogen to one atom of phosphorus, and any nitrogen or phosphorus outside this ratio is wasted. These findings indicate that significantly reducing phosphorus input would not affect crop yields but would protect biodiversity, cut costs, conserve this vital resource, and improve ecosystem health. Wheat is a crucial global food crop, providing 20% of human nutrition. Research on pot-grown wheat plants suggests they require nitrogen and phosphorus in a 21:1 ratio. Excess nitrogen or phosphorus is wasted as it does not boost wheat yield. This pattern likely applies to all crops.Currently, global fertilizer use has N:P ratios of around 2.1:1 to 4.3:1, far exceeding the optimal level. This waste accumulates in soils and water bodies, harming the environment and increasing costs for farmers and consumers.Unlike nitrogen, phosphorus is a finite resource essential for feeding a growing population. If these findings hold across agriculture, dramatically cutting phosphorus input can benefit farmers, the environment, and society without compromising yields.Professor Andrew Leitch from Queen Mary University of London said, "Rising fertilizer consumption is driving up food prices. Our research shows we're using far too much phosphorus relative to nitrogen , leading to waste, pollution, and higher costs."Professor Mark Trimmer from Queen Mary University of London added, "Fertilizer runoff is devastating our environment. Reducing phosphorus inputs can significantly improve biodiversity and ecosystem health without affecting crop production." Dr. Ilia Leitch at Royal Botanic Gardens Kew commented, "Forty-five percent of flowering plant species are threatened. Excess fertilizer is a major factor. Our study can help farmers reduce fertilizer use, saving money and the environment."
Senators want changes to drought, conservation programs - A bipartisan pair of Senate lawmakers is urging the Biden administration to reform a host of drought mitigation programs in a bid to better address aridification in the West and Great Plains states.Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (R) detailed their proposed changes in a letter Wednesday to Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack.“Droughts in Colorado and Kansas are increasing in frequency and intensity,” the lawmakers wrote. “Agriculture in our states is on the frontlines of the effects of long-term drought and producers should be part of the solution to help conserve water while producing food to feed the world.” The list of changes — including how the agency allocates resources for research and development and altering the standards for programs that provide incentives to farmers conserving water — was spurred by a recent field hearing the lawmakers held in Burlington, Colorado.
Becerra says extreme heat emerging as a ‘public health crisis’ -Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra gave remarks in Phoenix Wednesday, acknowledging that a rise in temperatures has led to a “public health crisis.”“The climate change that we are experiencing cannot be denied. It has created, has led to a public health crisis,” he said during a press conference in Arizona, The Associated Press (AP) reported. His visit came as Arizona continues to see triple-digit temperatures this week, according to the National Weather Service. Becerra noted that “people are dying on our streets because of extreme heat.”“What we’re beginning to see is the prominence of extreme heat and no longer just the issue of extreme cold and the weather effects that come from snowstorms and heavy rains, flooding, hurricanes,” Becerra said, according to the news service. “Today it is things that happen as a result of the heat — heat exposure, the need to deal with growing numbers of wildfires.”He was also asked whether heat should be recognized as a weather-related disaster under the Stafford Act, which helps states get federal assistance for weather emergencies, ABC 15 reported.“We’re going to go through all of those really critical issues that have to be explored about when we have an emergency, and under what circumstances the federal government comes in and says, ‘We’re going to now assist the state,’” he said, according to the local outlet.“And I think most people recognize that what we’re facing with extreme heat today wasn’t what we were experiencing 30 years ago, 40 years ago,” Becerra added.Roughly 1,220 people are killed by extreme heat in the United States every year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In Arizona’s Maricopa County, there have been 66 heat-related deaths this year with another 447 deaths under investigation for heat-related causesBecerra’s warning comes after the Biden administration proposed the nation’s first-ever standards aimed at protecting workers from extreme heat last month, which would mandate that employers provide rest breaks and access to shade and water for workers who experience risks from the heat.
Hurricane Watch issued for portions of west-central Florida and the Big Bend region - Tropical Depression Four is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm as it tracks west of the Florida Peninsula this weekend and impact Florida this weekend by bringing hazardous rainfall and flooding, gusty winds, life-threatening inundation from storm surge along portions of the west coast, and the threat of a few tornadoes.
- Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast U.S. this weekend through Wednesday. Isolated river flooding will also be possible.
- A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of west-central Florida and the Big Bend region, where hurricane conditions are possible late Sunday, August 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected farther south along Florida’s west coast, including the Tampa Bay area, and across the Dry Tortugas where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
- There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
- Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.
Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and life-threatening storm surge inundation are all possible along the western coast of the state beginning today, August 3. Heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge are also possible over northern Florida and the Southeast U.S. Coast Sunday evening into early next week. Tropical Storm Warnings and Storm Surge Watches are in effect along Florida’s Gulf Coast while Tropical Storm Watches extend farther out across the other Gulf Coast states.
Hurricane Debby makes landfall in Florida (AP) — Hurricane Debby reached the Big Bend coast of Florida early Monday, bringing with it the potential for catastrophic flooding and life-threatening storm surge as it slowly passes over the northern part of the state. Forecasters warned that, in the coming days, record-setting rain could pummel coastal Georgia and South Carolina as the storm heads east. The storm made landfall as a Category 1 storm near Steinhatchee, a tiny community in northern Florida of less than 1,000 residents on Florida’s Gulf Coast. It had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph) and was moving north-northeast at 10 mph (17 kph), the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. The storm came ashore in one of the least populated areas of Florida, but forecasters warned heavy rain could spawn catastrophic flooding in Florida, South Carolina and Georgia. Forecasters said storm surge was expected to be the biggest threat for Florida, with 6 to 10 feet (1.8 to 3 meters) of inundation above ground level predicted in part of the zone near the Big Bend.“That part of the coast is a very vulnerable spot,” John Cangialosi, a hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center, said Monday. Some areas, including Sarasota and Manatee counties, have already received 10 to 12 inches (25 to 30 centimeters) of rain.In Georgia, the National Weather Service is predicting major flooding on some rivers: the Canoochee River near Claxton, the Ohoopee River near Reidsville and the Ogeechee River near Eden. All those rivers were below flood stage Monday but could see their water levels more than double by later in the week.Nearly about 300,000 customers were without power in Florida and Georgia on Monday, according to PowerOutage.com. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said some 17,000 linemen are working to restore electricity. He warned residents in affected areas to sit tight until conditions are safe. “When the water rises, when you have streets that can be flooded, that’s hazardous,” DeSantis said. “Don’t try to drive through this. We don’t want to see traffic fatalities adding up. Don’t tempt fate, don’t try to go through these flooded streets.”A truck driver was killed early Monday after he lost control of his tractor trailer along a wet Interstate 75 in the Tampa area. In Union County, some roads were already under water and numerous trees and power lines were down. The Union County Sheriff’s Office said Monday that residents were cleaning up from a tornado that touched down in the county Sunday night, damaging at least one home. No injuries were reported.
Hurricane “Debby” makes landfall in Florida, historic rains expected in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas - Hurricane “Debby” made landfall near Steinhatchee in Florida’s Big Bend at 11:00 UTC on Monday, August 5, 2024. Debby had minimum central pressure of 979 hPa and maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h (80 mph) at the time of landfall, making it a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. It was moving NNE at 17 km/h (10 mph). Debby will slowly track across the Southeast over the next several days. Tornadoes, catastrophic flash and urban flooding, coastal flooding, rip currents, and strong gusty winds are all expected. Rainfall totals of 150 – 300 mm (6 – 12 inches), with maximum amounts of 450 mm (18 inches), are expected across portions of central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning, August 10. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 250 – 500 mm (10 – 20 inches) of rainfall, with local amounts up to 750 mm (30 inches), are expected through Saturday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Debby is expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia through Tuesday, August 6, and be near the Georgia coast by Tuesday night. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Public Advisory issued at 09:00 UTC today, the combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern Florida and southeastern Georgia today. The threat will spread northeastward into parts of South Carolina later today and tonight. Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf Coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast later today and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Heavy rains from Debby inundated wastewater systems across Tampa Bay area | FOX 13 Tampa Bay The heavy rains from Debby inundated wastewater systems across the Tampa Bay area. The rain caused hundreds of thousands of gallons of wastewater to overflow, and water quality warnings were posted across the region. The City of Tampa’s Wastewater Department said the city had 10 spills, totaling 343,000 gallons of wastewater. "Most of it went into Hillsborough Bay," Eric Weiss, Tampa's wastewater director, said. Weiss said the city didn’t lose power to any of its 230 pumping stations, which typically happens in other storms. But, he said the relentless rain caused the overflows. "It was just a volume of water," Weiss said. "It was just 36 hours of 10+ inches of rain, and it just inundated when it got into the wastewater pipes." In Sarasota County, which was one of the hardest hit areas, county officials said nearly a million gallons of water spilled this week. They said the spillage was a combination of wastewater and treated reclaimed water. County officials said there are almost 800 lift stations in the county, and many flooded over. "About nine of them had malfunctions," Sarasota County Director of Public Utilities Brooke Bailey said. "Most of them were inundated with the flow. We had a couple of power things. We got generators out there. We also had some manholes lifted, and so that inundated our system." Bailey said Bee Ridge Water Restoration Facility was contained and didn’t overflow into nearby neighborhoods. "Bee Ridge usually sees about eight million gallons a day," she said. "During the event, we saw 25 million gallons a day. So, if you can imagine, that’s twice to three times. Central county saw the same type of flow. Double the amount of flows as typical, and same with Venice." Bailey said Bee Ridge is back down to 10 to 12 million gallons. She said they’re continuing to do water treatment procedures around the county. Sarasota County officials said there were also several issues with manholes being opened, which can cause major filtration issues. They urge people not to open manholes in order to drain their own properties.
Tropical Storm Debby bringing 'catastrophic' flooding to Southeast -- Forecasters are warning that Tropical Storm Debby could bring “catastrophic flooding” to the Southeast this week after the storm ripped through Florida on Monday.The storm made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in the Florida Big Bend at about 7 a.m. on Monday, reaching maximum winds of about 80 mph. The storm brought severe flooding and high winds to the state, where Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) declared a state of emergency in 61 counties.It downgraded to a tropical storm by 11 a.m., according to the governor’s office. The storm is now slated to move across Georgia and South Carolina in the coming days.“Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding,” the National Hurricane Center said in its forecast.“Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of central and northern Florida and across portions of central and northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning,” the forecast said.The forecasters also noted that hazards remain in areas where the storm has already passed, including downed power lines and flooded areas. According to poweroutage.us, more than 162,000 customers are without power in Florida as of Monday evening. More than 27,000 customers reported power outages in Georgia.CNN reported that at least four people have died from the storm in Florida, including a 13-year-old boy who was killed after a tree fell onto his home in Levy County.
Tropical Storm Debby slowly moving along the coast of South Carolina -- Debby made landfall in Steinhatchee, Florida early Monday morning as a category 1 Hurricane with max sustained winds of 80 mph. Debby weakened into a Tropical Storm before lunchtime Monday. Debby has been meandering off the coast of South Carolina dumping heavy rain along the east coast of the United States.Tropical Storm Debby is expected to make another landfall in South Carolina Thursday. Once on land, the storm is forecast to rapidly weaken and lose its tropical characteristics.Even as Debby weakens, flooding rain is still likely in the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and northeastern United States over the next few days. A 13-year-old boy was killed after a tree fell on him as Debby made its way into Florida, the Levy County Sheriff's Office said. Deputies responded to a mobile home around 8 a.m. on Monday after reports of a downed tree. There, they found the teen crushed to death. Alabama remains on the dry side of the storm. Debby will continue to bring heavy rain to the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast over the next few days, leading to potential flooding.Debby should merge with a frontal zone and become an extratropical cyclone over the northeastern U.S. by the end of the work week.
Debby claims at least five lives since landfall in Florida’s Big Bend –- Hurricane “Debby” has claimed at least 5 lives since landfall near Steinhatchee in Florida’s Big Bend on August 5, 2024. 4 deaths have been reported in Florida while one has been reported in Levy County. The hurricane which has now weakened into a tropical storm is currently moving towards the northeast. At least four people were killed in Florida, according to officials. A 38-year-old woman and a 12-year-old boy, from Crawfordville, died in a crash just before 21:30 local time (LT) on August 4 after their car lost control and hit a guardrail on U.S. Highway 19. According to witnesses, the vehicle lost control because of the inclement weather and wet roadway. Another boy was reported dead in Levy County on the morning of August 5 after a tree fell onto his home. No other injuries were reported, according to officials. Debby had minimum central pressure of 979 hPa and maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h (80 mph) at the time of landfall, making it a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. At 18:00 UTC on August 6, the center of Tropical Storm “Debby” was located about 15 km (10 miles) SE of Savannah, Georgia and about 130 km (80 miles) SW of Charleston, South Carolina. It had maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph), minimum central pressure of 999 hPa, and was moving ENE at 7 km/h (5 mph). A slow motion toward the east and then north is expected through Thursday night, August 8. On the forecast track, the center of Debby is expected to move offshore the coast of Georgia later today and tonight, continue to drift offshore through early Thursday, and then move inland over South Carolina on Thursday. Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall totals of 254 – 508 mm (10 – 20 inches), with maximum amounts of 635 mm (25 inches), bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of the eastern half of South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From northern North Carolina through portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, 102 – 203 mm (4 – 8 inches) of rainfall, with local amounts up to 305 mm (12 inches), are expected through Sunday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. An additional scattered 25 – 51 mm (1 – 2 inches) of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 102 mm (4 inches), is possible across the western portion of the Central Florida Peninsula and southeast Georgia today, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions in that vicinity.Tropical Storm Debby brings alligators into streets, pools --As Tropical Storm Debby drenches South Carolina, the region’s alligators and catfish are testing new waters - from puddles to backyard pools and the roads in between.In a viral video, Robert Moose Rini watches from his vehicle as an alligator ambles across a rainy Hilton Head Island road before taking a quick break in a puddle. Mr Rini says he first saw the animal in the turn lane of the busy road.“Imagine walking around the corner and seeing that sucker,” he said.It’s a common fear, popping up in dubious social media posts every hurricane season: predators showing up where you’d least expect them. Fake images of sharks in storm-flooded streets are so common, they have their own Wikipedia page. But alligators in backyards? Those are real for many Americans in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. Wildlife experts say that alligators don't typically stray too far from their natural habitats. They stick to freshwater and like to burrow down when they sense a storm coming, the South Carolina newspaper The State reports. But it’s not unusual to see alligators and other wetland creatures where human neighbourhoods and developments such as golf courses butt up against freshwater ponds, rivers and wetlands. This summer, Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Alberto were credited with pushing nearly 200 crocodiles to explore more populated areas in Tamaulipas, a Mexican state that borders Texas, the Austin American-Statesman reported. In South Carolina, several videos show alligators popping up on roads. One woman on Hilton Head told the Island Packet newspaper that she looked out her window to find she had a pool crasher - a small gator enjoying the shallow end.Mr Rini, a South Carolina real estate agent, tells the BBC that he has lived on the island, a popular vacation spot, since 1981. He says residents try to avoid the lagoons alligators live in, but they're hard to spot among foliage and in murky water, especially after storms. "They don’t bug you if don't you bug them. But if they’re there, you know - they’re wild animals. They’re unpredictable," he says, adding that he often has to warn out-of-town buyers with dogs and young children. The animals inspire fear across the US coastal South, owing to their size, large mouths and prehistoric appearance. Female alligators tap out at around 10 feet, though male alligators can grow larger. And while they prefer to eat fish, amphibians and small mammals, alligators will snap their jaws at anything that comes too close. The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission warns that even in neighbourhoods where residents have learned to co-exist with alligators, "the potential for conflict always exists".
Tropical Storm Debby makes second landfall in South Carolina bringing rain, tornadoes - Tropical Storm Debby made its second landfall Thursday in South Carolina, as it continues to batter the East Coast with heavy rains and strong winds.Debby made landfall near Bulls Bay, S.C., early Thursday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHS). It is expected to continue moving inland but could bring severe flooding and strong storms all the way up through the Northeast this weekend.“Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding,” the NHC said in its forecast. “Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast through Saturday morning.”The National Weather Service in Charleston said officials confirmed four tornadoes in the area Wednesday as a result of the storm. As of Thursday morning, more than 7,000 households are without power in South Carolina and more than 137,000 are suffering outages in North Carolina, according to poweroutage.us.Debby first made landfall in Florida as a Category 1 hurricane but has since weakened into a tropical storm. It killed five people in Florida and briefly left more than 100,000 households without power.The center said that the storm currently has sustained winds of 45 mph, keeping it in the tropical storm category. Officials noted that they expect the storm to continue weakening in the coming days.The National Weather Service (NWS) also warned that the storm could bring an additional 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts across southeastern North Carolina. The maximum rainfall could be up to 15 inches in some places, according to the service.The NWS added that tropical storm conditions will affect parts of coastal Carolinas through Thursday and that flooding in the area due to the storm surge is possible. The storm will also affect the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. Maryland, Upstate New York and Vermont can expect to see 2 to 6 inches of rain through Friday, per the NWS.
Hurricane Debby's death toll rises to eight after landfall in South Carolina -The death toll from storm Debby has risen to eight following its second landfall in the mid-Atlantic region on Thursday. Debby first made landfall on Florida early Monday as a Category 1 hurricane. The storm then made its second landfall early Thursday in South Carolina after it was downgraded to a tropical storm. As of Friday morning, the storm is moving through the Northeast, hitting Albany, N.Y., and Pittsburgh. The storm has caused flash flooding across the Eastern Seaboard with the National Weather Service reporting Friday that 3 feet of fast-moving water was flooding the Charleston, S.C., area. Several areas near Washington, D.C. — including Arlington, Va., Annapolis, Md., and Baltimore — have reported flooding, and people were told to take shelter in parts of D.C., including Capitol Hill, for a tornado warning. In Fayetteville, N.C., a dam broke Thursday morning, but no one was injured. At least eight people have died in incidents related to Debby’s downpour: 78-year-old Hilda Windsor Jones, of Brown Summit, N.C., is the latest victim of the storm to be identified, as of Friday morning. She was home alone when a tree fell on her mobile home, splitting it in half. Authorities on Tuesday identified six people who were killed by the storm while it was still in the South, including two children. One child, a 13-year-old, was killed when a tree fell on his mobile home in Levy County, Fla. Up to 6 more inches of rain could impact the Carolinas, parts of Maryland, upstate New York and Vermont through the weekend, according to the National Weather Service.
Tropical Storm Debby churns up the East Coast, and affects weather as far away as the Great Lakes -- Tropical Storm Debby pushed bad weather up the East Coast on Wednesday, colliding with other systems and bringing no respite to residents as far away as the Great Lakes and New Jersey, where heavy rain flooded highways and streets and stranded motorists. Officials in New York told people in basement apartments to prepare to flee.Debby has already drenched Southern states for days as it churned slowly across Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. But a sequence of weather events Tuesday evening caused intense storms well north of the tropical storm's center.Some moisture streamed out ahead of Debby and interacted with a frontal boundary that was draped across Long Island, New York, and through Pennsylvania and up to the Great Lakes, said Scott Kleebauer, a meteorologist with the national Weather Prediction Center.There was also a disturbance that was exiting the Great Lakes region at that time. So the combination of these things caused multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms that produced significant rainfall.Severe thunderstorms soaked most of New Jersey on Tuesday night, causing moderate flooding and leaving thousands without power. As much as 6 inches (15 centimeters) of rain fell in some southern New Jersey communities in less than four hours.Emergency officials warned of potential flash flooding, flying drones with loudspeakers in some New York City neighborhoods to tell people in basement apartments to be ready to flee at a moment’s notice. Multiple water rescues were reported in New York City and surrounding areas.Nearly 340,000 customers were without power in Ohio following storms there, according to PowerOutage.us. Yet still, the most rain from Debby so far has fallen in the South. High water streamed into the home of Michael Jones on Monday evening in Savannah, Georgia. His furniture began to float, and the water was too deep to escape. He said he spent a sleepless night on his kitchen table before firefighters arrived in boats the next morning and helped him out of the house. A spot near Lake City in north Florida leads the nation in total rainfall from Debby at a whopping 19.67 inches (50 centimeters), according to national Weather Prediction Center. Meanwhile, the “imminent failure” of a dam in southeast Georgia was threatening to swamp a mobile home park and other areas downstream, the National Weather Service said in a flash flood warning Wednesday afternoon. “If the dam breaks, flash flooding will occur immediately downstream of the dam,” the weather service said. The Cypress Lake Dam is in Bulloch County, about 50 miles (80 kilometers) northwest of Savannah. Another area of concern on Wednesday was southeastern North Carolina, where Hurricane Matthew caused a historic billion-dollar flood in 2016. Two years later, many of those records were broken during Hurricane Florence. Both storms killed dozens.
Catastrophic flooding reported in Westfield, Pennsylvania, as Debby's remnants lash Northeast – Debby was downgraded to a post-tropical storm Friday morning, but the threats of flooding and severe weather remain serious into the weekend. The storm is now spiraling up the Eastern Seaboard with several Tornado Warnings already issued, including briefly near Washington. Storms overnight Thursday into Friday morning caused damage in the Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, area, which had been hit hard by severe storms earlier this week that were unrelated to Debby. FOX Weather's Katie Byrne showed residents busy cleaning up debris Friday morning. City Dock in downtown Annapolis, Maryland, was inundated Friday morning by nearly 3.5 feet of water from high tide enhanced by Debby's winds. The National Weather Service has issued a Coastal Flood Warning for several areas along Chesapeake Bay, saying more flooding is expected during the day's second high tide. Flooding is seen in Annapolis, Maryland, as the remnants of Debby move across the northeastern U.S. on Friday morning. Debby has caused dangerous surf conditions, including hazardous rip currents, longshore currents, and large wave activity, as seen along North Point State Park Crystal Pier in Edgemere, Maryland. Water rescues are being reported in Allegany County, New York, where a Flash Flood Emergency was issued until 5:15 p.m. ET. According to the NWS, between 4 and 4.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. "It's not looking good right now," a dispatcher with Crary Hose Company in Westfield, Pennsylvania told FOX Weather. "We have homes getting swept away. We have vehicles swept away. Our fire station is under 4-feet of water right now." Debby has been a drencher, as the waterlogged Southeast is still feeling the impacts. River gauges are reading high Friday as numerous rivers from Florida to New York are either approaching or at flood stage. In Moncks Corner, South Carolina, a Flash Flood Emergency was issued Friday due to Debby. Evacuations have been ordered, and high-water rescues continued early Friday morning. Homes were flooded, and even more roads were closed due to 2-3 feet of fast-moving water. Emergency officials said they got 9 inches of rain during the event. "Please note that an additional 2 inches of rain is forecasted for this afternoon, which may lead to further flooding due to the saturated ground and water in ditches," Moncks Corner Mayor Thomas Hamilton stressed on social media. "Please take necessary precautions to ensure your safety." Flash Flood Emergencies are exceedingly rare and are only issued when there's a severe threat to human life and catastrophic damage is occurring.
Flooding from the remnants of Debby lead to high water rescues in New York, Pennsylvania (AP) — The remnants of Debby raced northward with heavy rain that caused flooding and evacuations on Friday in western New York, creating new misery after causing at least eight deaths over a multi-day journey of destruction up the East Coast.The worst of the flash flooding so far in New York was occurring in villages and hamlets in a largely rural area south of the Finger Lakes, not far from the Pennsylvania border.Two communities and part of a third were under evacuation orders, and first responders launched rescues as people became trapped and floodwaters made multiple roads impassable in Steuben County, south of Rochester. County officials ordered the evacuation of the towns of Jasper, Woodhull and part of Addison.Steuben County manager Jack Wheeler said the storm was hitting the same areas of his countyTropical Storm Fred three years earlier, and that a half-dozen swift water rescue steams were actively retrieving people trapped in vehicles and homes.John Anderson said he watched the floodwaters come up quickly, overwhelming some vehicles in Canisteo, in Steuben County, and in Andover, in Allegany County. “It’s not a slow rise. It’s been very fierce,” said Anderson, who was providing dispatches to The Wellsville Sun. He said he watched people’s belongings from basements being carried away by the raging water. “It’s been scary.” In Woodhull, also in Steuben County, Town Supervisor Scott Grant was relying on phone calls and news reports to keep up with the emergency, unable to leave his house because of flooded roadways. “It looks like it hit our Main Street again, it’s not pretty,” he said.Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency Director Randy Padfield said a National Guard helicopter with aquatic rescue capability was sent to Tioga County on Friday afternoon because flooding conditions had become severe in the region that runs along the New York state line.Padfield said Tioga officials have asked for help with eight to 10 rescue locations, and there are also multiple boat-based rescues being conducted.In Vermont, Gov. Phil Scott warned of serious damage in the state, including already drenched parts of Vermont that were hit by flash flooding twice last month. Flooding that slammed the northeastern part of the state on July 30 knocked out bridges, destroyed and damaged homes, and washed away roads in the rural town of Lyndon. It came three weeks after deadly flooding from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. President Joe Biden approved Vermont’s emergency declaration.
Tuesday's severe weather event destructive for NE Ohio - Ohio keeps breaking the record for tornadoes this year, having another four confirmed from Tuesday's storms in northeast Ohio. But another severe weather event from Tuesday may be something less familiar. NWS Cleveland confirmed four tornadoes from Aug. 6. They also confirmed a macroburst Microbursts and macrobursts do happen in Ohio These straight line winds can get up to 130 mph Looking at the storms history, there were numerous variables that led to the severe weather set up on Aug. 6. A stalled boundary just south of the lakeshore on early Tuesday laid the foundation for numerous severe thunderstorms to ride along like train cars on train tracks. After an early afternoon lull, the next line of storms came in from the northwest and over Lake Erie, interacting with prime heating of the day. Dew points and instability may have also increased as the remnants of Tropical Depression Debby loomed to the east. The National Weather Service in Cleveland surveyed widespread damage for two days. The conclusion was four confirmed tornadoes and a macroburst. NWS says microbursts and macrobursts are common in the area. More recently, a macroburst happened with the June 13-14, 2022 derecho when a macroburst tracked across Wayne and Holmes counties with winds up to 90 mph near Wooster and Millersburg. That event also brought tornadoes and widespread damage to power lines and homes. Another local example of a microburst happened on Nov. 5, 2017 near Boardman in Mahoning County which produced winds up to 100 mph and damaged 20 homes in the area. A microburst and macroburst produce sinking air or downdrafts in an area. While a microburst affects a smaller area, less than or equal to 2.5 miles in diameter, with peak winds lasting less than five minutes, macrobursts produce damaging winds for an area more than two and a half miles in diameter with peak winds five to 20 minutes Winds can get as high as 130 mph and cause the same type of damage as an EF3 tornado. Storm damage looks very different from a macroburst and a tornado. NWS said storm surveyors noticed the macroburst uprooted trees, while the tornado areas had snapped trees.
What made local tornado very unusual in NE Ohio - – FOX 8 Meteorologists say Ohio has seen 69 confirmed tornadoes so far this year. It’s a record-breaking amount with the previous record of 62 set more than 30 years ago in 1992. But, in this latest round of wicked weather to hit Northeast Ohio one offour tornadoes is a standout, according to FOX 8 meteorologists.The day after severe storms, the National Weather Service confirmed two tornadoes touched down across Lorain and Cuyahoga counties on Tuesday, August 6. Both were rated an EF-1 with winds greater than 100 miles per hour.The tornado that went from Brookpark to Bedford was on the ground for 17 miles.FOX 8 Meteorologist Scott Sabol said it’s the longest tornado track Cuyahoga County has seen in more than 70 years. “The last time Cuyahoga County had a tornado on the ground for that long was in 1953. The last time any part of Northern Ohio, our coverage area, had a tornado on the ground greater than 17 miles was November of 2002 that was in Seneca County,” said Sabol. “Only 4% of Ohio tornadoes have been on the ground more than 17 miles. So a tornado on the ground that long here in Northern Ohio is not common.”The tornado started in Brookpark at 3:59 p.m. and ended in Bedford at 4:24 p.m., according to the NWS.No injuries were reported in either tornado but damage was widespread.CLICK HERE to see a step-by-step path of each tornado.
Hundreds of thousands still without power in Northeast Ohio after intense storms; debris closes roads — Hundreds of thousands of residents in Northeast Ohio woke up this morning still without electricity after intense thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon knocked out power throughout the area. At 7:34 p.m. Tuesday, about 423,000 FirstEnergy customers were without power. There still were more than 327,000 outages early Wednesday morning, with nearly 200,000 in Cuyahoga County alone. Lorain County had more than 24,000 outages, Lake County nearly 50,000, and Geauga County had nearly 25,000 outages, according to the FirstEnergy website.Summit County fared better, with nearly 4,700 outages, while Trumbull County had nearly 8,900. Medina County had only 152 outages reported. Tuesday’s storms produced several tornado warnings and had a top wind gust of 86 mph in Cleveland near Burke Lakefront Airport, the National Weather Service says. Wind monitors also recorded a wind gusts of 74 mph at Fairport Harbor and 67 mph in Cleveland near Edgewater Park. Trees and power lines were toppled throughout the area, with police departments in the region saying multiple roads were blocked by debris or high water. Traffic lights also were not working in multiple cities. In Geauga County, a section of Ohio 322 between Heath and Butternut roads was closed because of debris, according to the Ohio Department of Transportation. A section of U.S. 6 near Ohio 45 in Ashtabula County also was closed early Wednesday morning. A large portion of Ohio 88 north of Garrettsville reportedly was closed because of debris, ODOT’s website shows. The terminal at Cleveland Hopkins International Airport experienced sporadic power outages Tuesday afternoon over about a 90-minute period, according to airport spokeswoman Michele Dynia. Power was back on for good by around 6 p.m., she said.
FirstEnergy says it may take until Wednesday night to restore power in many Greater Cleveland cities - cleveland.com - A third of FirstEnergy’s customers in Cuyahoga County are still without power Thursday, two days after strong storms and tornadoes swept through the area, and the company is saying some people may not be restored until the middle of next week.The same goes for customers in portions of many surrounding counties, according to updates FirstEnergy has posted on its outage website.
Northeast Ohio tornadoes: See the path of the storms -- Survey crews from the National Weather Service will be on the ground in Northeast Ohio Thursday to confirm whether more tornadoes hit the area Tuesday night. Four tornadoes have been confirmed from the Aug. 6 storms so far. They spanned Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain and Summit counties. Now we know more about the path those tornadoes took from NWS. In Lorain County, a tornado began near Wedgewood Drive in Avon Lake around 3:45 p.m. Tuesday. From there, the tornado moved east, and remained on the ground for 11 minutes and ended near Wooster Road, near Laurel Avenue, in Rocky River. NWS determined it was an EF1 tornado with 110 mph winds. It was 200 yards wide and was on the ground for 8.42 miles. The second tornado started in Brook Park at 3:59 p.m. and ended in Bedford at 4:24 p.m. in Cuyahoga County. It was an EF1 with peak winds of 104 mph. It touched down in Brook Park near Holland Road. Shortly after, the tornado tore off a portion of the roof at the Brook Park Recreation Center. The storm went east, downing power poles along West 130th Street and through Parma Heights and Parma, then along Chestnut Road in Seven Hills and Independence. It continued through Valley View and Bedford, eventually dissipating near the Bedford Cemetery. The tornado was on the ground for 17 miles and had a path 350 yards wide. The third EF-1 tornado, in the Richfield area, was measured at 150 yards wide and with estimated wind speeds reaching 104 mph. It spun up at 4:20 p.m. in Brecksville in southern Cuyahoga County. It lasted about 5 minutes, traveling a little more than 3 miles before dissipating in Peninsula, according to the National Weather Service. Surveyors found the tornado damaged a commercial warehouse along Columbia Road in Richfield, ripping off the building’s roof and blowing over 11 empty semi trailers. It then moved southeast, downing trees and utility poles along Columbia Road. It ended on the north side of the Interstate 80 Cuyahoga Valley Bridge, just west of Riverview Road in Boston, where damage surveyors found more downed trees. The fourth tornado was reported in the Kirtland and Chesterland area, starting in Waite Hill in Lake County and traveling more than 4 3/4 miles before ending in Chesterland in Geauga County, according to the National Weather Service. It began at 4:31 p.m. on Worrell Road and moved east-southeast to Tibbetts Road. As it continued southeast, it created “extensive” tree damage along Chillicothe Road and Mulberry Road, some of which affected nearby houses. It dissipated about 7 minutes later after crossing Wilson Mills Road. The tornado spanned 200 yards wide and had wind speeds estimated at 110 mph. No injuries were reported in the tornadoes, although the damage was widespread. Many saw damage from powerful wind gusts. Wind gusts between 60 and 86 mph were recorded from Cleveland to Lakemore.
Northeast Ohio storms: Macroburst with 90 mph winds confirmed (WJW) — The National Weather Service confirmed that a macroburst with 90 mph winds swept through three Northeast Ohio counties during Tuesday’s storms.The macroburst, 15 miles long and 15 miles wide, occurred in eastern Cuyahoga, western Lake and northwest Geauga counties. It begin at about 4:20 p.m. in Eastlake and ended in Chesterland at about 4:50 p.m.The NWS damage survey, released Thursday afternoon, estimated 70 mph to 90 mph winds through the area with “very small pockets of up to 100 mph,” causing serious damage to trees, wires and power lines. Damage was also done to some homes, the survey says.According to FOX 8 meteorologist Mackenzie Bart, macrobursts are outward bursts of strong wind that occur over a greater distance with a horizontal extent of more than 2 1/2 miles in diameter.In comparison, microbursts are less than 2 1/2 miles in diameter. Although a macroburst is considered less powerful, its wind speeds can still reach 130 mph.This comes after the National Weather Service confirmed at least four tornadoes touched down during storms that left widespread damage and knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of people across Northeast Ohio.
Alaska declares state disaster emergency as Mendenhall River floods - Severe flooding caused by a glacial lake outburst has led to a state disaster emergency declaration in Alaska on Tuesday, August 6, 2024, with the Mendenhall River cresting at 4.87 m (15.99 feet) and inundating north Juneau’s neighborhoods. Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy declared a state disaster emergency on Tuesday, August 6, as the Mendenhall River reached record levels and flooded neighborhoods in Mendenhall Valley. The flooding was caused by glacial lake outburst that occurred upstream in the Suicide Basin and Mendenhall Glacier. The outburst led to the Mendenhall River cresting at 4.87 m (15.99 feet) at 03:15 local time (LT), according to the National Weather Service (NWS), surpassing the major flood stage of 4.27 m (14 feet). The rapid inflow of water caused Mendenhall Lake to rise nearly 3.05 m (10 feet), causing severe flooding in the area. The flooding caused extensive property damage, displacing many residents in north Juneau’s neighborhoods. Photos of the affected areas show homes turned into islands, submerged driveways and roads, and vehicles with floodwater reaching the windshields. The City and Borough of Juneau issued an evacuation order on the night of August 5 and set up an emergency shelter for displaced residents. At least 100 homes were damaged in what has become a recurring hazard for neighborhoods near Mendenhall Lake and River. The damage from this year’s flooding was widespread, with streets experiencing 0.91 – 1.22 m (3 – 4 feet) of water in some areas, according to local authorities.
Massive landslide blocks Chilcotin River, triggers evacuations and flood concerns, Canada - A landslide in Farwell Canyon, British Columbia, Canada on July 30, 2024, caused a large section of earth to collapse, creating a 1 000 m long (3 281 feet) debris mound that obstructed the Chilcotin River. As water pooled behind the blockage, authorities issued urgent flood warnings and evacuation orders. A significant landslide occurred along the south bank of the Chilcotin River in Farwell Canyon, British Columbia, on July 30. The landslide caused a large piece of earth to drop more than 50 m (164 feet), resulting in a debris mound 1 000 m (3 281 feet) long, 600 m (1 969 feet) wide, and 30 m (98 feet) deep, which blocked the river and halted its flow. Water had started pooling behind the landslide, forming a long, narrow lake by August 1, as captured by the OLI-2 on Landsat 9. Local authorities quickly issued flood warnings for upstream areas and evacuation orders for downstream areas due to the risk of destructive outburst floods, according to Robert Emberson from NASA’s Landslides research team. Water began to breach the natural dam on August 5, causing downstream water levels to rise rapidly and carry debris down the river. Preliminary modeling from British Columbia’s River Forecast Center indicated that water levels would surge above typical spring flooding levels on the Chilcotin River. Officials from the Ministry of Emergency Management and Climate Readiness (EMCR) warned that the water would have greater momentum and force than usual spring floods. Fraser River water levels peaked at 3 640 m³/s (128 600 ft³/s) on August 6. The Chilcotin River, although sparsely populated, has agriculture downstream that could be affected by the flooding. The Tšilhqot’in National Government expressed concern about the blocked movement of Taseko sockeye salmon, an endangered population critical to the area. They called on various levels of government and fisheries to take measures to conserve the salmon. The event took place about 100 km (62 miles) southwest of Williams Lake, in an area known as Nagwentled by the Tšilhqot’in. Daniel Shugar, a geomorphologist at the University of Calgary, noted that the terrain shows signs of ancient landslides.
Peak flood season 2024 in China sees record number of floods - Amid the peak flood season of 2024, China has recorded the highest number of floods in its history, coupled with extreme heat that has shattered records for July temperatures, said state authorities on August 2, 2024. Halfway through the peak flood season in 2024, China has already experienced the highest number of floods since record-keeping began in 1998 and the hottest July since 1961, authorities reported on August 2. China recorded 25 numbered flood events, which the Chinese Ministry of Water Resources defines as incidents where water levels prompt an official warning or reach a magnitude of a “once in two to five years” event. Authorities said that 3 683 river flood warnings and 81 mountain flood disaster warnings had been issued, according to state media. Almost 5 000 reservoirs were activated to divert 99 billion liters (26.1 billion gallons) of floodwater, preventing the displacement of more than 6.5 million people. China has been battered by severe weather this summer, including heatwaves, drought, an early start to the annual flood season, and the remnants of Typhoon Gaemi. This typhoon caused floods and destruction in the Philippines and Taiwan before hitting China’s east coast. As a result, dozens of lives have been lost, and hundreds of thousands have been evacuated following floods and landslides across multiple provinces. The destruction affected thousands of homes, severely affecting crops and livestock. On August 1, state media reported that remnants of Gaemi had claimed at least 30 lives in Hunan, with approximately 35 others still missing. The National Meteorological Administration attributed this year’s abnormal climate conditions as the cause of natural disasters. The average national rainfall was 13.3 % higher than usual, with 30 weather stations recording unprecedented highs. Four major rivers, including the Huaihe and Liaohe, received rainfall levels double their normal amounts. The National Weather Office also confirmed that July 2024 was the hottest July since observations began in 1961, marking “the hottest single month in the history of observation.” The average July air temperature was 23.21 °C (73.78 °F), surpassing the previous record of 23.17 °C (73.71 °F) set in 2017. Every province in China reported mean July temperatures higher than in previous years. High temperatures and heavy rainfall are expected to persist in the next ten days, with a red alert for extreme heat, up to 40 °C (104 °F), issued for Shanghai on August 2. Hangzhou could potentially experience temperatures reaching 43 °C (109.4 °F), according to authorities.
Bridge collapses after 10 hours of heavy rain in Saudi Arabia’s Jazan - A bridge collapsed in the Jazan region of Saudi Arabia on August 3, 2024, after 10 hours of intense downpours that led to significant flooding and power outages in various neighborhoods.The heavy rain also caused significant damage across southern governorates in the Jazan region of Saudi Arabia, with Ahad Al Masarihah bearing the brunt of the storm. In Wadi Musalla (Wadi Al Khams) three vehicles were swept away due to huge torrents.The intense downpour also resulted in widespread damage, including vehicle losses, road collapses, and at least one confirmed fatality.Rainfall has reduced visibility in many parts of Saudi Arabia, especially in the city of Al Baha and its suburbs, affecting various other governorates and regions, including Baljarshi, Bani Hassan, Al Qura, Al Makhwah, Qalwa, Al Hajra, and Ghamad Al Zanad.
Catastrophic floods in Yemen claim over 45 lives, destroy thousands of homes, farms, and properties - A devastating flood swept through Yemen’s Hodeida Governorate on Tuesday, August 6, 2024, killing more than 30 people and causing heavy damage to infrastructure, including major hospitals. The floods, which struck as part of ongoing seasonal rains, have displaced thousands of people and left many areas without power. Heavy rainfall caused severe flooding across Yemen’s Hodeida Governorate, including the city of Hodeida, on Tuesday night. The deluge, part of Yemen’s ongoing seasonal rains, intensified overnight, leading to widespread damage and displacing thousands of residents. The floods inundated streets, homes, and infrastructure, causing significant disruptions to public services and road closures. Power outages were reported across the governorate, with some areas experiencing complete or partial blackouts. “Thousands of homes, farms, and properties were destroyed and damaged,” UNFPA Yemen reported. “Roads were destroyed and humanitarian access to those affected was obstructed.” Local authorities reported 30 fatalities and 5 missing persons due to the flooding in the southern city of Hodeida, though these figures are not yet final. In the Maqbnah district of Taiz governorate, floods killed 15 people on August 2, destroyed agricultural lands, and damaged homes and infrastructure. The flooding also caused severe damage to infrastructure, including health facilities. Bajil Hospital and health centers in the Al-Marawa’ah, Al-Zaydiyah, and Al-Zuhra districts were inundated, and the Tuberculosis Centre suffered extensive damage, destroying all equipment and medications. Al-Thawrah Hospital, a major referral hospital in the area, sustained damage to several departments but remains operational.
The Park Fire is tearing through critical salmon habitat -The devastation caused by wildfires extends far beyond human homes. Northern California’s Park Fire has burned through some of the Central Valley’s last wild salmon habitat, dealing a blow to an already struggling iconic fish species. It’s unclear how much damage the fire has done to the Mill and Deer creek watersheds. But scientists fear that spring-run Chinook salmon, a once abundant California fish, could take another step toward extinction amid dangerous levels of population decline. Last year California’s Department of Fish and Wildlife counted only 167 of the fish in the Central Valley’s Sacramento and San Joaquin river systems that were home to tens of thousands of them as recently as the early 2000s. “You have this wildfire impacting, potentially greatly impacting their habitat at a time when their numbers are extremely low,” said Matt Johnson, a senior environmental scientist with the California Department of Fish and Wildlife. “Will that be the final death blow to the species? Probably not, but it’s another setback, especially if it’s a high intensity burn.” The Central Valley is home to four major runs of Chinook salmon that are genetically different from one another, specifically in the gene that controls the timing of their migratory life span. They were once extremely abundant, but Mill and Deer creeks are some of the last spawning habitat for spring-run Chinook salmon. Scientists and experts attribute population declines over the last century to a combination of factors. Dams on most of California’s major rivers have blocked their passage to reach high-altitude spawning grounds, water diversions for agriculture and cities have narrowed their available habitat, and severe droughts worsened by climate change play a role. Now spring-run salmon in the Central Valley rely mainly on Mill and Deer creeks, which are respectively being burned and under threat of burning in the state’s fourth-largest wildfire on record. After a few mellow days, the Park Fire picked up in intensity in some areas this week including in the Mill Creek Canyon near Mineral in Tehama county. The blaze has burned across a 420,000 acre perimeter and is now 34% contained. Hotter and drier conditions fueled the fire, which was sparked by alleged arson, deeper into the northeast portion of the fire over the last 48 hours, said officials. The salmon that arrived this spring are likely swimming in deep pools along the creeks, where they are expected to spawn and lay their eggs in gravel underneath clear, cold stretches of water in late September and October. These particular fish, which authorities haven’t yet been able to observe, are no strangers to adversity. They were hatched during the last years of the state’s most recent severe drought and have returned back to fresh water after maturing in the ocean. Spring-run Chinook were listed as threatened under the federal Endangered Species Act in 1999. Scientists worry that this latest blow, depending on the fire’s severity, could push them over the edge to endangered. “So many of our species are isolated in these stronghold pockets. When they’ve been depleted down to these ultra low levels, then you’re looking at vulnerability to an extinction event,“ said Andrew Rypel, a professor of fish ecology and director of UC Davis’ Center for Watershed Sciences.
What to Know About the Park Fire, the 4th Largest in California History - The Park fire, the largest wildfire currently burning in the United States, has torn through over 426,000 acres in Northern California in recent weeks and has destroyed hundreds of homes and other structures. The fire ballooned in size in a matter of days, and it is the largest blaze in California so far this year. Thousands of firefighters and other personnel, some from as far as Utah and Texas, are battling the fire, which was 34 percent contained as of Wednesday. The hot and dry weather has made it difficult for firefighters to suppress the blaze, which is spreading northeast within Lassen National Forest and “ascending slopes with critically dry fuel,” according to Cal Fire. But forecasters say the coming days could bring lower temperatures and higher humidity levels in the fire zone. Current unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to steadily fade and give way to highs in the 70s next week. “It’s not a dramatic change, it’s slow. But each day is getting a little better,” The Park fire has burned more than 426,000 acres.Credit...Loren Elliott for The New York Times When and how did the fire start? The fire ignited on July 24 near Chico, a college town in Butte County, north of Sacramento. After igniting, the fire exploded to more than 120,000 acres by the next day and then nearly doubled in size the night after that. Officials said the cause of the fire was arson. A vast majority of wildfires in the United States are caused by humans, but what started the Park fire was a bit unusual: A man pushed a burning car into a gully, and the car then tumbled about 60 feet down an embankment and lit the surrounding area on fire, according to the authorities. The suspect was identified as Ronnie Stout, 42, of Chico, who was arrested on July 25. Mr. Stout, who already has two felony convictions for child molestation and robbery with great bodily injury, has been charged with felony arson and arson with aggravating factors. If convicted, he could be sentenced to 25 years to life in prison. Butte County, home to about 210,000 people, has weathered some of the state's largest and most destructive blazes. In 2018, the Camp fire destroyed most of the town of Paradise and killed 85 people, making it the deadliest wildfire in state history. Then, there was the Dixie fire in Feather River Canyon in 2021, which burned nearly a million acres. Despite the history of fires in Butte County, the land where the Park fire is burning has not experienced a blaze in many years, resulting in dense vegetation that is helping the fire spread. Across California, record heat this summer and two rainy winters have also produced large amounts of dry vegetation. On Tuesday, under hot and dry weather, the fire began growing past its northeast edge, escaping firefighters who were trying to hold the fire line near Mill Creek, a small mountain community, said Jahaira Zaragoza, a spokeswoman for Cal Fire overseeing the Park fire. That led to new evacuation orders for some Tehama County residents. The area where the fire is spreading is remote and hard for firefighters to reach. Plus, there are lava rocks — essentially very old lava formations — that are challenging to traverse, making it difficult for hand crews to create fire lines on, Ms. Zaragoza said. “It’s extremely steep and very, very difficult to access these areas,” Ms. Zaragoza said. “It’s posing a hazard for our firefighters to go down into some of these areas.” The Park fire has quickly risen in the ranks of the largest fires in California history — it is now the fourth largest and has spanned an area roughly 14 times the size of San Francisco. Currently covering more than 426,000 acres, it could pass the Mendocino Complex fire as the third largest, which burned over 459,000 acres in 2018. Both are still dwarfed in size by the August Complex fire, the biggest ever in the state, which burned over a million acres in Northern California in 2020. That acreage made the August Complex fire a “gigafire,” the first in the state’s modern history. It originated as nearly 40 separate fires that were ignited by lightning strikes and then merged together.
People Flee As California Wildfire Burns Homes - Videos from The Weather Channel
More communities ordered to evacuate in Sierra foothills due to fire - The Crozier Fire that's burning in remote wilderness northeast of Placerville grew to 706 acres by Thursday morning, Cal Fire said. Containment did not increase overnight and still stands at 5%. "The fire is burning in a remote part of the forest with heavy timber, thick brush, and difficult access," Cal Fire said in the Thursday morning update. "We are in full suppression strategy with air and ground resources."On Wednesday night, evacuation orders were expanded and now include the areas of "Garden Valley, Georgetown, Volcanoville, Mosquito and Quintette," Cal Fire said. Get the latest evacuation information from a map that El Dorado County has posted online.Aug. 7, 9:09 p.m. The areas under evacuation orders for the Crozier Fire in El Dorado County were expanded Wednesday night, Cal Fire announced.Evacuation orders are now in place for areas of Garden Valley, Georgetown, Volcanoville, Mosquito and Quintet, Cal Fire said. Residents in those areas are ordered to leave immediately using only Rock Creek Road.As of 8:49 p.m., the fire has consumed 392 acres and is 5% contained, Cal Fire said.
Record “heatwave” in Antarctica as temperatures surge 30 °C (54 °F) above normal - Surface temperatures in parts of Antarctica have surged nearly 30 °C (54 °F) above normal recently, causing what scientists call an Antarctic “heatwave.” This temperature anomaly is described as “a near-record (or record) event for the region” by Edward Blanchard, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington. Surface temperatures in parts of Antarctica have surged nearly 30 °C (54 °F) above normal recently, creating what scientists call an Antarctic “heatwave.” “A near-record (or record) event for the region of Antarctica where it is having the greatest impact,” said Edward Blanchard, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington. “It is affecting a large portion of East Antarctica, which makes up the bulk of the continent,” he added. Winter temperatures in Antarctica average around -20 °C (-4 °F), with peaks reaching -70 °C to -80 °C (-94 °F to -112 °F). However, several stations in Antarctica have recently recorded temperatures 20 °C to 30 °C (36 °F to 54 °F) above normal, marking one of the highest positive temperature anomalies on the planet. “The heatwave in the Antarctic Plateau is extraordinary more for its duration than its intensity, although some values are notable,” said Stefano Di Battista, an Antarctic temperature analyst. The South Pole station had its warmest July since 2002, with temperatures about 6.3 °C (43.3 °F) above average according to Di Battista. The Antarctic heat wave is also affecting Vostok, with the maximum recorded -34.1 °C (−29.38 °F) on August 6 almost reaching the monthly extreme record of -33.9 °C (−37.02 °F) recorded on August 26, 1985.
Multiyear ice obstructing the Northwest Passage, causing significant reduction in navigability - northwest passage satellite image july 13 2024 A recent study showed a significant decline in the navigability of the Northwest Passage, Arctic Archipelago due to obstructions caused by multilayer ice in the region. A new study published in Communications Earth & Environment revealed that the Northwest Passage, which connects the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans through Arctic waters, has experienced a significant reduction in navigability in recent years. This reduction is mainly attributed to the southward drift of multiyear ice, obstructing key shipping routes. Since the first recorded transit of the Northwest Passage in 1906, fewer than 400 voyages have successfully navigated these waters. Despite the challenges posed by unpredictable ice and weather conditions, the passage has remained an attractive option because of the significant distance it can save on shipping journeys between the two oceans. However, according to an analysis of satellite data from 2007 to 2021, the shipping season in the Northwest Passage has been shrinking. This occurs despite a general decline in sea ice thickness and extent across the Arctic, which is often believed to make the passage more viable during the summer months. northwest passage location map 1990-2018 The map shows all ship tracks 1990–2018 (grey lines), and shipping routes (four different line colours) along the Northwest Passage (NWP). Ship tracks from Pizzolato et al.; updated. Land relief from the International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean V3 (IBCAO). Credit: Nature/Authors On July 13, 2024, NASA’s PACE (Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ocean Ecosystem) satellite captured a mostly cloud-free image of the Northwest Passage. The image showed that ice was obstructing all shipping routes around Victoria Island. According to Walt Meier, a sea ice scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), despite the Arctic sea ice extent ranking seventh-lowest in the satellite record for mid-July, the ice coverage around the Canadian archipelago remains near record-low levels for this time of year. While the southern route around Victoria Island is expected to clear by late September, conditions in the channels could change depending on wind patterns and drifting ice, Meier added.
Japan On High Alert For Possible Catastrophic Magnitude 9 Megaquake --Japan issued the first-ever warning for a "megaquake" off the country's Pacific coast following Thursday's magnitude 7.1 earthquake near the southern island of Kyushu.Prime Minister Fumio Kishida canceled a trip to Central Asia on Friday following yesterday's quake warning. That doesn't necessarily mean a massive quake is imminent, but instead, the probability was higher than average. The Japan Meteorological Agency issued a megaquake advisory on Thursday, warning that "if a major earthquake were to occur in the future, strong shaking and large tsunamis would be generated." It added: "The likelihood of a new major earthquake is higher than normal, but this is not an indication that a major earthquake will definitely occur during a specific period of time." Update (0730ET): And just moments ago... As we in Japan are on the alert for a possible mega quake, my phone's emergency alarm goes off. M5.3 shakes Kanagawa Prefecture with the epicenter 10 km according to Japan Met Agency's preliminary announcement. Tokyo shook too and many jumped in fear. https://t.co/hFlFPaPkbK— michiyo ishida (@MichiyoCNA) August 9, 2024 Bullet train service in the country has apparently been disrupted by the quake.
Japan issues first-ever megaquake warning after M7.1 Kyushu earthquake - The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued its first megaquake advisory on Thursday, August 8, 2024, several hours after the M7.1 earthquake hit near the coast of Kyushu. The advisory warns that if a major earthquake were to occur in the future, strong shaking and large tsunamis would be generated.
- This is the first time the JMA has issued the Nankai Trough Earthquake Extra Information as part of efforts to assess the probability of a subsequent megaquake in the Nankai Trough area.
- Nankai Trough is an 800 km (500 miles) long subduction zone between two tectonic plates in the Pacific Ocean, where massive earthquakes have hit in the past.
- While the likelihood of a new major earthquake is higher than normal, this is not an indication that a major quake will definitely occur during a specific period of time.
- The warning comes under new protocols adopted in 2019, drawn after the devastating 2011 M9.1 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and tsunami in which around 18 500 people were killed. The 2011 earthquake was preceded by a magnitude 7.2 foreshock which went largely unnoticed.
The M7.1 earthquake that hit near the coast of Kyushu at 07:43 UTC on August 8, 2024, prompted the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) to issue its first-ever warning for a megaquake along the Nankai Trough subduction zone — running along the country’s eastern coast. :As a result of examining the relationship between this earthquake and the Nankai Trough earthquake, it is believed that the possibility of a large-scale earthquake occurring in the hypothetical source area of the Nankai Trough earthquake is relatively higher than usual,” JMA said. “Please take disaster prevention measures in accordance with future appeals from the government and local governments.”This earthquake was a reverse fault type with a pressure axis in the west-northwest and east-southeast direction, and was evaluated as a moment magnitude 7.0 earthquake caused by a part of the boundary between the land plate and the Philippine Sea plate in the assumed focal area of the Nankai Trough earthquake, according to the JMA.Statistical data on past large earthquakes around the world shows that of the 1 437 earthquakes with moment magnitude 7.0 or more that occurred between 1904 and 2014, there were 6 cases of earthquakes with moment magnitude 8 or more occurring in the same area within seven days of the first earthquake, and the frequency of occurrence thereafter decreases over time. This data includes a case where a moment magnitude 7 earthquake occurred two days before the 2011 Tohoku Pacific Ocean Earthquake (moment magnitude 9.0).
Powerful paroxysmal eruption at Etna, Aviation Color Code raised to Red, Italy - Strombolian activity at Italy’s Etna volcano increased during the night of August 3 to 4, 2024, evolving into strong lava fountaining by 03:20 UTC on August 4. In response, the Aviation Color Code was raised from Orange to Red at 02:45 UTC, indicating a higher level of volcanic threat to air travel. The last significant eruption at Etna occurred on July 23. The current eruption is centered at the Voragine crater, producing strong ash emissions toward SE and ESE. Seismically, the average magnitude of the volcanic tremor, which had already reached very high levels around 02:30 UTC, has increased further. Infrasonic activity has also surged, with very high values recorded. These infrasonic events are located at the Voragine crater and indicate significant expansions. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Orange at 02:45 UTC. According to Etna Observatory, the volcanic ash cloud was reaching a height of about 10 km (32 800 feet) above sea level at 03:42 UTC. Ground deformation monitoring systems have detected slight changes around the volcano. The tilt network recorded a measurable change of about 0.10 milliradians in both directions at the PDN station, indicating minor ground shifts. Similarly, the DRUV strain station noted a variation of approximately 10 nanostrains, showing small deformations in the Earth’s crust. However, the GNSS data, which tracks ground movement using satellites, showed no significant changes. As a result of this morning’s volcanic activity, the crisis unit at Catania Airport has ordered the closure of sector B1 and the reduction of arrivals to six flights per hour. Passengers are requested to check the status of their flight with the airline if necessary.Lahore receives highest rainfall in 44 years, floods claim 104 lives in Pakistan - (2 videos)Lahore received the highest rainfall in 44 years on August 1, 2024, after recording 353 mm (14 inches) of rain, which led to significant flooding claiming three lives and bringing the total death count up to six for the Punjab province. Since the start of the monsoon season, a total of 104 people across the country have lost their lives. Pakistan’s second-largest city, Lahore, in Punjab Province, received 353 mm (14 inches) of rain on August 1, the highest rainfall recorded in over four decades. The flooding caused at least 6 deaths, according to some reports, as flash floods hit the city, and floodwaters entered hospital wards, homes, and shops. Punjab officials warned of more flash floods in the south this week. In addition, at least 24 people were killed and 17 were wounded in rain-related incidents in neighboring Khyber Pakhtunkhwa over the last three days. According to Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) report on August 2, since the beginning of the monsoon season, a total of 104 people have died across most parts of the country, of whom 39 in Punjab, 34 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 22 in Sindh, five in Balochistan, 3 in Azad Jammu and Kashmir and one in Gilgit Baltistan. In addition, 216 people have been injured, and 490 houses have been damaged. More rain with localized thunderstorms and strong winds is expected over parts of Sindh, Punjab and northeast/southeast Balochistan, Kashmir, Islamabad, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan today.
G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm in progress - A coronal mass ejection (CME) produced by a long-duration M8.2 solar flare at 07:09 UTC on August 1, 2024, reached Earth early on August 4, causing G3 – Strong geomagnetic storming. Solar wind parameters reflected a slight enhancement in the IMF after about 05:30 UTC. The geomagnetic K-index of 4 threshold was reached at 05:59 UTC, followed by a K-index of 5 (G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm) at 06:05 UTC.
New Van Allen radiation belt formed after powerful solar storms in May 2024 - The WatchersNASA scientists have discovered a transient third Van Allen radiation band encircling Earth, created by powerful solar storms in May 2024. A powerful solar storm on May 10 – 11, 2024 caused the development of a new Van Allen radiation belt between the existing inner and outer belts. This discovery shows the active nature of the Earth’s magnetosphere and has significant implications for prospective space missions, particularly NASA’s Artemis 2 mission, which is scheduled to launch in September 2025. Normally, Earth is encircled by two stable belts of charged particles, but powerful solar storms in May 2024 have created a third, transient band to this protective barrier. This newly developed band, located between the existing inner and outer belts, is made up of high-energy particles and is likely to remain for months or even years, depending on current solar and space weather conditions. The new radiation belt was discovered by researchers at the Colorado Internal Radiation Belt Investigation (CIRBE) CubeSat project and announced on July 31. The Van Allen belts are found in Earth’s magnetosphere, with the inner belt spanning from around 1 600 to 12 800 km (1 000 to 8 000 miles) above the planet’s surface and the outer band ranging from 19 300 to 40 200 km (12 000 to 25 000 miles) above. The new, temporary belt sits between these two existing belts. NASA scientists and other experts who monitor space weather validated the discovery.
Asteroid 2024 PY flew past Earth at 0.2 LD - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2024 PY flew past Earth at a distance of 0.24 LD / 0.00063 AU (94 290 km / 58 594 miles) from the center of our planet at 21:36 UTC on August 4, 2024. Asteroid 2024 PY was first observed at Palomar Mountain — ZTF, California on August 5 — one day after its close approach to our planet. The object belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 3.5 and 7. 8 m (11.5 – 25.6 feet). This is the 53rd known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year and the first so far this month.
Long-duration X1.3 solar flare erupts from geoeffective region - A major, long-duration solar flare measuring X1.3 erupted around Active Region 3777 / 3774 at 19:35 UTC on August 8, 2024. The event started at 19:01 and ended at 19:57 UTC. A Type II Radio Emission, with an estimated velocity of 1 026 km/s, was registered at 19:29 UTC, suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) was associated with the flare event. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over North America and the Pacific Ocean at the time of the flare. Due to the location of the responsible region, near the center of the disk, an Earth-directed CME is probable. However, we’ll have to wait for updated coronagraph imagery to confirm.
The lost history of what Americans knew about climate change in the 1960s -To judge by recent Supreme Court decisions, the world didn’t know much about climate change a half century ago. In 2007, when the court ruled that the Clean Air Act of 1970 gave the Environmental Protection Agency the flexibility to regulate carbon dioxide emissions, former Justice John Paul Stevens wrote, “When Congress enacted these provisions, the study of climate change was in its infancy.” Writing a dissent in a 2022 case looking at similar questions, Justice Elena Kagan argued that back in 1970 when Congress created the act, legislators gave the EPA the flexibility to keep up with the times, tackling problems (i.e., climate change) that couldn’t be anticipated. Naomi Oreskes, a historian of science at Harvard University, saw those opinions as a sign of how little people understood about the past. “I remember just being mortified by that,” she said. Oreskes knew that scientists had been working to understand how carbon dioxide affected the global climate since the late 19th century. So she set about writing what she thought would be a short paper to correct the record. In the process, Oreskes, along with other researchers at Harvard and Duke University, uncovered a lost history. As they searched troves of historical documents, they found plenty of other people were concerned about a warming planet, not just scientists, in the years before 1970. “We discovered a universe of discussions by scientists, by members of Congress, by members of the executive branch,” Oreskes said, “and the more we looked, the more we found.” Her paper ballooned into an 124-page analysis, soon to be published in the journal Ecology Law Quarterly. And it’s only part one of the findings. Oreskes has found more than 100 examples of congressional hearings that examined CO2 and the greenhouse effect prior to the adoption of the Clean Air Act, evidence she plans to spell out in part two.The research adds weight to arguments that Congress intended to give the EPA a broad authority to regulate pollution, including greenhouse gas emissions — a matter that has become more important, the authors say, in the aftermath of the West Virginia v. EPA decision in 2022 that limited the agency’s ability to regulate power plant emissions. The court’s conservative majority invoked a new argument called the “major questions doctrine,” requiring a very clear statement from Congress to authorize regulations that have “vast economic and political significance.” Oreskes’ paper demonstrates that members of Congress, when discussing the Clean Air Act in 1970, were aware that addressing climate change could have significant economic consequences, for energy production and the automotive industry, for example. Oreskes hopes the paper will “put the lie to the myth that has been propagated that the Clean Air Act had nothing to do with carbon dioxide” and spur conversation among lawyers, judges, and legal scholars. By the mid-1960s, climate change was already becoming a matter of concern to the federal government, the new analysis shows. A 1965 report from the National Science Foundation found that the ways humans were inadvertently changing the world — through urban development, agriculture, and fossil fuels — were “becoming of sufficient consequence to affect the weather and climate of large areas and ultimately the entire planet.” And the science was well-understood by many members of Congress, Oreskes and her colleagues discovered when they looked through the papers of Edmund Muskie, a Democratic senator from Maine who helped write the Clean Air Act, located at Bates College. The documents show that Muskie was deeply involved in conversations about climate change with scientists, and his staff tracked coverage of the topic closely in the press. In 1970, Muskie warned his fellow senators that if air pollution went unchecked, it would “threaten irreversible atmospheric and climatic changes.” Scientists generally recognized carbon dioxide as a pollutant in the 1960s, albeit a different kind of pollutant from the gases and particulate matter that were contributing to thick smog that dimmed cities in the middle of the day. By 1970, President Richard Nixon’s task force on air pollution proclaimed in a report that “the greatest consequences of air pollution for man’s continued life on earth are its effects on the earth’s climate.” Ominous warnings of climate change had also reached the wider public. In 1958, Frank Capra, the famous filmmaker, produced an animated movie, The Unchained Goddess, that warned that just a few degrees of temperature rise could cause the seas to rise, so that tourists in glass-bottom boats would one day see “the drowned towers of Miami through 150 feet of tropical water.” It was shown to almost 5 million children in classrooms across the country. On The Merv Griffin Show in 1969, Americans were warned that a rapidly heating Earth could melt the polar ice caps. The next year, an article in Sports Illustrated, a magazine seemingly far-removed from environmental concerns, explained the science of climate change in detail, advising people “not to take 99-year leases on properties at present sea level.”The Oreskes paper aims to provide the history and context that the court’s major questions doctrine seems to require. Despite this flood of historical evidence, Ann Carlson, an environmental law professor at UCLA, says she doubts the Supreme Court will take it into account. “I think if this court continues to display the hostility that it has displayed to environmental regulation, it can find ways to do so, whether or not there’s evidence that Congress understood that carbon dioxide was a pollutant under the Clean Air Act,” said Carlson, who previously directed fuel economy regulations for the Biden administration. The conservative justices have plenty of other lines of reasoning they could use to strike down regulations, she explained.
Memo to the Supreme Court: Clean Air Act Targeted CO2 as Climate Pollutant, Study Says - Among the many obstacles to enacting federal limits on climate pollution, none has been more daunting than the Supreme Court. That is where the Obama administration’s efforts to regulate power plant emissions met their demise and where the Biden administration’s attempts will no doubt land. A forthcoming study seeks to inform how courts consider challenges to these regulations by establishing once and for all that the lawmakers who shaped the Clean Air Act in 1970 knew scientists considered carbon dioxide an air pollutant, and that these elected officials were intent on limiting its emissions.The research, expected to be published next week in the journal Ecology Law Quarterly, delves deep into congressional archives to uncover what it calls a “wide-ranging and largely forgotten conversation between leading scientists, high-level administrators at federal agencies, members of Congress” and senior staff under Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon. That conversation detailed what had become the widely accepted science showing that carbon dioxide pollution from fossil fuels was accumulating in the atmosphere and would eventually warm the global climate.The findings could have important implications in light of a legal doctrine the Supreme Court established when it struck down the Obama administration’s power plant rules, said Naomi Oreskes, a history of science professor at Harvard University and the study’s lead author. That so-called “major questions” doctrine asserted that when courts hear challenges to regulations with broad economic and political implications, they ought to consider lawmakers’ original intent and the broader context in which legislation was passed.“The Supreme Court has implied that there’s no way that the Clean Air Act could really have been intended to apply to carbon dioxide because Congress just didn’t really know about this issue at that time,” Oreskes said. “We think that our evidence shows that that is false.”The work began in 2013 after Oreskes arrived at Harvard, she said, when a call from a colleague prompted the question of what Congress knew about climate science in the 1960s as it was developing Clean Air Act legislation. She had already co-authored the book Merchants of Doubt, about the efforts of industry-funded scientists to cast doubt about the risks of tobacco and global warming, and was familiar with the work of scientists studying climate change in the 1950s. “What I didn’t know,” she said, “was how much they had communicated that, particularly to Congress.”Oreskes hired a researcher to start looking and what they both found surprised her. The evidence they uncovered includes articles cataloged by the staff of the act’s chief architect, proceedings of scientific conferences attended by members of Congress and correspondence with constituents and scientific advisers to Johnson and Nixon. The material included documents pertaining not only to environmental champions but also other prominent members of Congress. “These were people really at the center of power,” Oreskes said.
Widening Divide: Energy And Climate Policies In The Presidential Race – Forbes --The 2024 presidential race has starkly highlighted the growing chasm between Republicans and Democrats on energy and climate policy.In fact, it could be argued that the two parties have never been further apart on the issue after Republican Donald Trump’s selection of J.D. Vance as his running mate and Kamala Harris’s rapid ascension as the presumptive Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out.Trump's choice of Vance reinforces the GOP's pro-oil stance. Vance is a staunch supporter of drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking), often criticizing renewable energy sources like solar and wind. He views the Biden administration’s approach as a direct threat to U.S. energy production, a message that could resonate with voters grappling with a 20% rise in prices for most goods and services since Biden took office.Vance’s policies aim to cut red tape and streamline permitting for oil and gas projects nationwide. His legislative efforts include co-sponsoring the “Power Act,” requiring Congressional approval before delaying leases or permits for oil, gas and mining on federal lands, and the “STOVE Act,” which would block federal agencies from banning gas stoves and appliances.With the economy and inflation as central issues in the upcoming election, particularly in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Vance's selection is a strategic move. Pennsylvania, a significant natural gas producer, stands to be influenced by Vance's pro-fracking stance. The shale boom over the past 15 years, driven by fracking in regions like the Marcellus and Utica Shales, underscores the importance of these policies to local economies.Trump and Vance’s campaign emphasizes lowering fuel prices by increasing domestic oil and gas production, thereby reducing inflation. They pledge to leave the Paris climate agreement (again) and cut federal subsidies for clean energy technology, aiming to make America “energy dominant” by easing regulations on domestic production. Under Trump, America will be “done buying energy from countries that hate us," Vance has said. "We’re going to get it right here, from American workers in Pennsylvania and Ohio and across the country. We’re done sacrificing supply chains to unlimited global trade, and we’re going to stamp more and more products with that beautiful label, ‘Made in the USA.'"Vance and Trump oppose government subsidies for renewable energy, arguing that these technologies should compete on their own. They also criticize environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing, with Vance, a former venture capitalist, calling it a “massive racket” that harms American jobs. That view has gained traction with voters, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 highlighted the need for supply security.Vance’s legislative efforts include promoting domestic manufacturing for clean energy while opposing policies like the suspension of tariffs on Chinese solar components. He has also introduced the “Drive American Act” to repeal the federal tax credit for electric vehicles, advocating instead for tax credits for U.S.-made gasoline or diesel vehicles.Vance has said he would eliminate much of the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s landmark 2022 climate law. However, if some local companies support specific provisions, Vance has expressed flexibility about keeping portions of the law.
The Growing Conservative Backlash Against Carbon Capture and Storage - Earlier this year a far-right group called Canada Proud began running Facebook ads to its more than 534,000 followers attacking the climate change technology favored by conservative leaders as well as the country’s largest oil and gas producers.“Carbon capture is billed as a green technology that stops carbon from entering the atmosphere,” the ad explains. “But is it really good for the environment? As it turns out, not really.” The technology, Canada Proud claimed, “can poison groundwater, it can put carcinogens in the soil and even has a record of causing earthquakes.”Major oil sands companies and their political allies in Alberta and Ottawa have for years pushed the opposite message — that carbon capture and storage, also known as CCS, is necessary to ensure the survival of oil and gas while also addressing climate change. So far the loudest attacks against carbon capture have come from environmental groups and progressive politicians which see it as an expensive false solution to climate change that furthers our dependency on oil and gas.But as more of these projects move forward, they’re also activating opposition from the right, creating new political divisions between establishment conservatives and groups attempting to catalyze grassroots anger towards expensive industrial megaprojects in rural areas.“It’s very interesting that groups like Canada Proud are seemingly mobilizing, or testing the waters to mobilize, against carbon capture and storage,” Bob Neubauer, an assistant professor in communications at the University of Manitoba who studies rightwing populism and climate change disinformation, told DeSmog.“Their base doesn’t appear to be full of people who are excited about a technocratic post-carbon scenario,” he added.Mobilize Media, the company behind Canada Proud, didn’t respond to questions from DeSmog. Dissatisfaction with the technology has been edging into the mainstream of rightwing discourse. “We might as well take tax money at gunpoint and burn it,” Canadian conservative influencer Jordan Peterson in February wrote on X to his 5.3 million followers in response to a CCS project in Wyoming.U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has been frequently interviewed on conservative media platforms, last year called carbon capture a “boondoggle.” Vivek Ramaswamy, who ran a failed primary campaign this year against Donald Trump for the Republican leadership, called pipelines in Iowa that can transport captured carbon to sites where it can be buried underground “the greatest violation of property rights.”These tensions are growing in Alberta, the heart of Canada’s oil and gas industry, where a consortium of six top oil sands companies known as the Pathways Alliance applied this spring for regulatory approval to build a $16.5 billion carbon capture and storage project. It’s been blanketing the country in ads stating that “carbon capture is an important step towards carbon neutral resource extraction.”Alberta’s premier Danielle Smith, who earlier this year shared a stage with Tucker Carlson and was recently interviewed on Peterson’s podcast, has announced taxpayer support of up to $5.3 billion for the plan. “Let me tell you, we are only going to strengthen the case for carbon capture, utilization and storage in the years ahead,” she said during an industry convention last year.
Over 3.4 million homes claimed IRA energy credits, feds say - Over 3.4 million households received $8 billion in tax credits last year for making energy and efficiency upgrades, according to Treasury Department data. The newly released data provides the first look at how Americans are using tax incentives expanded under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. In many cases, Americans are saving up to 30 percent of the upfront cost of switching to greener options. “Those significant numbers show that these credits are more popular than initially projected,” said Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo in a call with reporters. Many of the credits went out to people offsetting their purchase of rooftop solar power. In total, 750,000 households switched to solar with help from the Inflation Reduction Act-boosted credits. Households in all 50 states and the District of Columbia received tax credits last year. California tops the list with nearly 400,000 households utilizing the incentive, with Texas and Florida in second and third, respectively. The rankings suggest that the Inflation Reduction Act-boosted incentives have some bipartisan appeal. Republicans have a tight political grip on Texas and Florida. Meanwhile, deep-red Alabama ranked 25th on the list, with almost 50,000 households claiming credits for energy or efficiency upgrades. It ranked higher than Oregon and Nevada. Nearly half of all households claiming credits had incomes of less than $100,000, fulfilling a key Biden administration commitment to include lower-income families in the clean energy transition. Getting the word out about potential cost savings embedded in the Inflation Reduction Act has been at times a struggle for the federal government. Biden administration officials are emphasizing that Inflation Reduction Act credits are bringing down costs for households. Investments in high-efficiency boilers and rooftop solar panels tend to bring down monthly costs after paying for their installation.
Bidenistas Claim IRA Crap Sandwich is Filet Mignon for PA & OH - Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, the U.S. Department of the Treasury released new data from the IRS along with analysis by the Office of Economic Policy that claims more than 158,000 Pennsylvanian families benefited from more than $267 million in tax credits to lower the costs of clean energy and energy efficiency upgrades to their homes during 2023, money that came from the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Treasury makes a similar claim for Ohioans, saying 109,000 Ohio families benefited from more than $150 million in tax credits from the IRA. The Bidenistas are fishing for votes in states like PA and OH, trying to sell an IRA crap sandwich by calling it filet mignon.
Ohio solar developers use Inflation Reduction Act to help overcome 'bias' - Natural gas is an unpredictable source of affordable energy, Ohio experts said, as more communities work to electrify homes and buildings to lower costs in the long-term and invest in renewable sources.One Dayton nonprofit is even helping low-income residents swap out gas appliances for electric ones. Aileen Hull, community engagement coordinator for the Dayton Energy Collaborative, said her organization is working through grant funding to expand the number of households eligible for free electrification, home repair and weatherization programs."Especially if you have gas-powered appliances, you're creating on-site carbon emissions, and that's not helpful for the health of the home, nor the neighborhood," Hull contended. "It's directly related to people's health." Ohio was awarded $249 million in federal funding through the Inflation Reduction Act, to offer rebates to residents for home energy efficiency projects. The Ohio Department of Development's Office of Energy and Environment is hosting upcoming virtual and in-person public feedback sessions on the program's design and implementation. Information is online at development.ohio.gov. Nat Ziegler, program manager for the coalition Power A Clean Future Ohio, said the unpredictability in prices, including extreme volatility and highs in 2022, have raised concerns about the sustainability of relying on natural gas. Ziegler added federal tax incentives are expanding options for people who want to electrify their homes and boost energy efficiency. "There are not only market dynamics that are making electricity much more affordable than natural gas, but there are also particular programs and policies that are coming online soon in Ohio that will continue to accelerate that transition to more affordable electricity," Ziegler explained. Local governments can reduce energy costs through "aggregation," or the process of collectively buying electricity from a specific source at a lower price. The coalition has developed a toolkit with resources to help communities get started.
Feds issue warning about solar company ‘scams’ - As the popularity of rooftop solar grows, federal agencies are warning of solar industry “scams.”The Treasury Department posted a new advisory on its website Wednesday, noting scams are illegal and providing tips to solar power consumers on how to avoid dishonest sales practices and identify bad actors. The Federal Trade Commission simultaneously posted an online portal for consumers to report incidents of being cheated or misled by solar companies.Treasury, the FTC and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau also launched a partnership Wednesday to better coordinate the government’s approach to protecting solar consumers. Lina Khan, commissioner of the Federal Trade Commission, said the alliance will help in “turbo-charging” state-led consumer protection efforts. “[We’re] making sure people are on alert about these scams,” said Khan on a call with reporters Wednesday announcing the new guidelines. “We’re making it very clear and very easy for people to submit complaints … and tell the government.”
Biden admin announces $2.2B in grants to boost US power grid --The U.S. power grid is overburdened and under-resourced — and the Biden administration just announced a major investment aimed at helping solve those problems.The Department of Energy has offered $2.2 billion to eight projects across 18 states that could expand and strengthen the grid. The projects range from deploying grid-enhancing technologies that boost the capacity of existing power lines to building brand-new high-voltage transmission cables that will enable wind farms in the Great Plains and off the coast of New England to plug into the grid.Tuesday’s announcement represents another significant federal investment in the U.S. transmission grid, which isn’t growing fast enough to allow clean energy to come online at the pace needed to combat climate change. Energy experts warn that without a doubling or tripling of existing grid capacity, the country will fail to hit the Biden administration’s goal of halving carbon emissions by 2030.The $2.2 billion in federal grants, to be matched by nearly $10 billion in private-sector and local government investments, will help the country take a small step toward that goal. The new projects will enable 13 gigawatts of new clean energy resources to be connected to the grid,DOE says, including 4.8 GW of offshore wind. The awards are conditional for now — all projects must still commit matching funds and meet certain milestones to receive the federal money.The grants mark the second round of funding under the DOE’s Grid Resilience and Innovation Partnerships Program, created by the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. In October 2023, theGRIP Program chose 58 projects across 44 states to receive a collective $3.5 billion. Those projects are expected to allow 35 gigawatts of new clean energy capacity to come online.The newly announced projects are largely focused on a core set of “innovative grid deployment” technologies that DOE has identified as needing further government support in order to see increased adoption. Ultimately, the goal is to “advance a more modern grid, a more energy-secure future, a grid that’s more reliable and more resilient, and one that delivers more affordable and clean energy,” Ali Zaidi, the national climate adviser to the White House, said in a Monday briefing with reporters.
AES Indiana Spending $1.1B to Convert Last Coal Plants to NatGas -Marcellus Drilling News -- AES Indiana, formerly known as Indianapolis Power & Light Company, is a utility company providing electric service to the city of Indianapolis. It is a subsidiary and largest utility of AES Corporation. AES Indiana said yesterday that it wants to invest $1.1 billion in Pike County, IN, to convert the company’s two remaining coal-fired power plants to run natural gas instead. Let the howls of protest begin!
Biden administration proposes to restrict future coal mining in North Dakota - The Biden administration is proposing restrictions on which federal lands in North Dakota can be mined for coal in the future, though it says the effort is not expected to impact how much coal is produced for many years. It issued a plan this week that, if finalized, would reduce the amount of federal land that could be leased for new coal development by about 90.5 percent.The administration said that this is not expected to impact coal production levels through the year 2040. However, it notes that the plan “would preclude the development of future mines.”Coal produced in North Dakota accounts for about 5 percent of the nation’s supply of the fuel. The plan only applies to mining on land that is owned by the government. Wendy Warren, the Bureau of Land Management’s Eastern Montana/Dakotas district manager, said in a written statement that the plan “represents a significant step forward in guiding public land use and balancing energy and mineral development.”Still, the plan received pushback from North Dakota Sen. Kevin Cramer (R), who said in a statement that it “stifles North Dakota’s energy development and our production.”“It is disappointing but not surprising to see the lengths that the Harris-Biden administration will go to in order to promote its Green New Steal agenda at the expense of our own economy and energy security,” he added. The move comes after the administration also proposed earlier this year to block new coal mines on public land in parts of Montana and Wyoming, including a coal hub known as the Powder River Basin.
Commission to consider fracking more public land on August 12 -- Ohio's Oil and Gas Land Management Commission, under the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, will hold its next meeting on Monday, August 12, 2024, at 1 p.m.During this meeting, the commission will discuss:
- Nominations to frack Egypt Valley Wildlife Area and Salt Fork State Park, as well as two parcels managed by the Ohio Department of Transportation
- Pending bids to frack Keen Wildlife Area, as well as four parcels managed by the Ohio Department of Transportation
See the full commission meeting agenda here. Ohio citizens pay for and use these public lands, and we need to turn out to this meeting to let the commissioners know that we do not want them to be fracked. Please register here if you can attend. We encourage you to bring children and youth to witness this proceeding and make their stake in the future of our Ohio parks and wildlife areas known. You are welcome to make signs and posters, but we will also have some you can hold.Carpools: We have a carpool board where you can post your car or sign up for someone else's car, or for a waiting list: https://www.groupcarpool.com/t/g89axqThanks so much for considering this trip to Columbus for the commission meeting. We get only one week's notice for these meetings, and wanted to let you know as soon as we could.
Tragedy of the commons: Fracking in Ohio - Op-ed by Randi Pokladnik - No doubt that most people are feeling the effects of this summer’s relentless heat (12 days above 90 degrees in the Ohio River Valley so far) and drought conditions. Farmers are worried about crops and homeowners watch as their lawns turn brown. Our family spends lots of time hauling water from our rain barrels and cisterns to water our garden and flowers beds. Rain events have become sporadic, lake levels are down and woodland streams are barely a trickle. Water is a precious common resource. Sadly, in Southeastern Ohio, we are witnessing a tragedy of commons being perpetrated on our region by out-of-state oil and gas companies. Every day we see countless water and brine trucks traveling back and forth on U.S. Route 250 near our home. No doubt they are hauling in water for fracking and hauling out toxic brine wastes. At one point, an enormous swimming-pool-like structure was erected just off Route 250 on the west side of Tappan Lake. There were several sites where water was being pumped from local streams and placed into this huge tank. Hoses took the water from the tank uphill toward a well pad. This practice is not unusual in our area as fracking gobbles 1.5 to 9.7 million gallons of water per well according to the United States Geological Survey. That amount of water being withdrawn from small streams is alarming. A 2023 study by Ohio Northern University “shows that these water withdraws are having an impact on small streams in the area.” Researchers found that withdraws “could have lasting negative impacts on the stream biota and have the potential to affect downstream users, including regionally-endangered species.The stream ecosystem might be severely impacted.” Given that Harrison County alone has 537 active wells, the amount of water used for fracking is staggering.This fresh water is mixed with sand and toxic chemicals, possibly including PFAS. It is then injected into fracking wells to fracture the bedrock below and release oil and methane gas. Some of that mixture returns to the surface and it referred to as produced water. “For every barrel (42 gallons) of oil produced, four to seven barrels of produced water may be generated.” The produced water contains salty brine as well as radioactive nuclides that become dissolved in the fracking mixture. Out-of-state companies use Ohio’s bedrock like a commons to store this toxic mixture in Class II injection wells permitted by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. The ODNR reported about 22 million barrels (924 million gallons) of produced water from Ohio along with 12 million barrels from other states was injected into Class II wells in 2022. No one can say for sure where these liquids migrate from the original injection site, and in fact these wastes have been known to move. “The Division of Oil and Gas Resources Management found that waste fluid injected into the three K&H wells had spread at least 1.5 miles underground and was rising to the surface through oil and gas production wells in Athens and Washington counties.”Rural Ohio residents’ sources of drinking water are being threatened by this process. Last year, Ohio state parks became the latest victim of this tragedy of the commons. HB 507, a bill passed during a lame-duck session and without public comments in December 2022, opened up state lands to fracking. No public land is safe from the environmental destruction and health effects of fracking.Ohioans must watch precious public areas like the wildlife area in Carroll County near Leesville Lake be leased away. The Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission, a five-member commission responsible for granting the leases, continues to ignore the science-based evidence of the dangers and instead considers only the economic gains.Ohio’s Republican politicians have led us to this tragedy as they welcomed this industry with open arms under the Kasich administration. They did not do their homework like some states. They did not consider the risks to rural residents or the land. They saw dollar signs. They still see only dollar signs and believe that Southeastern Ohio can drill its way into prosperity. That is not the case as a 2022 report from the Appalachian Regional Commission shows many of the same counties being heavily fracked remain“stressed economically”.As another election cycle gears up, we hear the chant,“Drill baby drill.” Appalachia Ohio has been logged, mined and now drilled to death. A look at a map of Ohio drilling sites in Southeast Ohio shows the ridiculous amounts of wells already drilled in our region. We certainly export a lot of methane gas, making the United States the largest exporter of liquid natural gas in the world. But, unlike manufacturing industries, rural Ohio’s frack pads don’t make value-added products. Instead, corporations exploit and export another resource from our region in return for a meager amount of money to the local communities.Exporting resources is not a recipe for economic prosperity. Appalachia historically has been treated as a mineral colony for outside interests and our commons — our water, our land, our air and even our bodies — are receptacles for fossil fuel wastes. At a time when we should be pivoting toward renewable energy, Ohio continues to put all its eggs in one energy basket.
3 Conv. Drillers Sue Multiple OH Injection Wells for Contamination -- Marcellus Drilling News -- In April, the Ohio Oil and Gas Commission upheld a regulatory order from the Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) suspending operations of three wastewater injection wells located in Torch (Athens County), OH, owned by K&H Partners, a subsidiary of Tallgrass Energy (see Ohio O&G Commission Votes to Shut Down 3 Athens Injection Wells). K&H subsequently applied to plug and abandon the wells (see Owner of 3 Athens, OH Injection Wells Applies to Permanently Plug). It appears that the situation has resulted in a flood of lawsuits by conventional drillers in the region, not only against K&H but also against a number of other injection wells and their owners.
6th Circuit Rules Sabre Energy Can’t Get Royalties from Deeper Wells -- Here’s a court case that flew under the radar until now. It’s a case that has the potential to affect some drillers and some royalty owners in Ohio. Sabre Energy Corporation (the plaintiff) sued Gulfport Energy Corporation and Antero Resources Corporation (the defendants) for breach of contract. Sabre Energy owns Overriding Royalty Interests (ORRIs), or fractional shares, in defendants’ shares of royalties from their oil and gas leases. Sabre Energy contends that these ORRIs attach to defendants’ recently drilled deep horizontal wells, and so the defendants owe it royalties.
Oil Company Denied Royalty Interests in Midwest Shale Oil Wells - Bloomberg Law - Company only has interest in vertical wells, not horizontal. Interest in drillers’ untap acreage is depth limited. An energy company doesn’t have royalty interests in two oil and gas drillers since its ownership of mineral rights only covers shallow vertical wells, not deep horizontal ones, a split federal appeals panel ruled Thursday. Sabre Energy Corp. was denied overriding royalty interests in the Gulfport Energy Corporation and Antero Resources Corporation horizontal wells in the Ohio portion of the Utica Shale/Point Pleasant formation, a majority of the US Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit said. Sabre’s royalty interests in the disputed mineral leases also didn’t apply to undrilled acreage, which preempts the now-drilled land they seek royalties from. ...
EOG Testing 700-ft Spacing in Ohio's Utica Oil Window, Sees Success | Hart Energy --EOG Resources has dropped a new five-well pad in its Ohio Utica oil play, showing 700-ft spacing will make IPs as strong as 1,000-ft-spaced pads.Its new pad, called Shadow, is in Carroll County at the northern end of its 140-mile-long north-south leasehold, which it grew by 10,000 net acres this spring to total 445,000 acres, the company told investors on Aug. 2.Shadow’s 30-day IP averaged 2,125 boe/d per well, 50% oil and 80% liquids.It is near EOG’s four-well Timberwolf pad, which was D&C’ed last summer at 1,000-ft spacing. It IP’ed a 30-day average of 2,150 boe/d per well, 55% oil and 85% liquids.Through first-quarter-end, it made 780,068 bbl, averaging 886 bbl/d per well in the first 220 days, according to Ohio Department of Natural Resources (DNR) data. First-37-day production averaged 1,214 bbl/d per well.At how many months into Shadow’s production will the spacing test’s success be clear?In addition to the Timberwolf pad, EOG made the three-well Xavier last fall in the middle of its north-south leasehold with 1,000-ft spacing and the four-well White Rhino this spring at the southern end with 800-ft spacing.In Harrison County, Xavier’s three wells produced 667,366 bbl in its first 179 days online, averaging 1,243 bbl/d each, according to Ohio DNR data. First-88-day production was 1,536 bbl/d each. It had IP’ed a 30-day average of 3,250 boe/d per well, 55% oil and 75% liquids.In Noble County, White Rhino made 30,800 bbl in its first eight days, averaging 963 bbl/d per well. It had a 30-day IP of 1,700 boe/d per well, 70% oil and 85% liquids.The Xavier wells were placed at 800-ft spacing; Timberwolf and White Rhino, 1,000-ft. All of the wells' results are normalized to 3-mile laterals. The Utica reservoir is thinner at the southern end, thus smaller IPs, EOG reported. But it has 100% mineral rights there, it noted, thus 100% net revenue interest. EOG’s 445,000 net acres in the play include 220,000 acres in the Utica’s black oil window along the western side of the volatile-oil fairway. Leitzell said the operator’s focus will remain on the volatile-oil window for now “where we have a more comprehensive geologic dataset.”EOG reported earlier this year that it is acquiring seismic and other data on the window before testing it. It expects to complete 20 net wells in the volatile-oil play this year and has one rig drilling it full time, while it is using a frac spread half-time.
Gulfport Energy 2Q: Completely in Love with Ohio Marcellus - Marcellus Drilling News - Gulfport Energy, the third-largest driller in the Ohio Utica Shale (by the number of wells drilled), reported its second quarter 2024 numbers earlier this week. The company drills Utica and Marcellus wells in Ohio. It also has an active drilling program in the Oklahoma SCOOP shale play. Gulfport’s net daily production for 2Q24 averaged 1,050.1 MMcfe/d, up from 2Q23’s average of 1,039.3 MMcfe/d. Production in 2Q consisted of 836.9 MMcfe/d in the Utica/Marcellus (80%) and 213.2 MMcfe/d in the SCOOP (20%). The production mix was comprised of approximately 92% natural gas, 6% natural gas liquids (NGLs), and 2% oil and condensate. Gulfport brass talked up the Marcellus during a conference call with analysts.
Ascent Resources 2Q – Pivots to Drill More Oil & NGLs -- Ascent Resources, founded as American Energy Partners by gas legend Aubrey McClendon, is a privately held company focusing 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale. Ascent, headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK, is Ohio’s largest natural gas producer and the 8th largest natural gas producer in the U.S. The company issued its second quarter 2024 update on Wednesday. The company posted a 5% increase in net production to 2,190 MMcfe/d (2.19 Bcfe/d) compared to a year ago. Ascent is pivoting to produce more liquids, including oil and NGLs — although the emphasis is on producing more NGLs.
Ascent Resources moves toward more oil production to fight natural gas price volatility - The volatility in natural gas prices forced Oklahoma City’s Ascent Resources to include more oil production, but the company still reported a net loss of $98 million along with adjusted net income of $96 million. The firm indicated it had adjusted EBITDAX of $333 million and cash flows from operations of $211 million and adjusted free cash flow of $76 million. It also had a 5% increase in net production of 2,190 mmcfe a day compared to a year ago. Liquids production show up 60% over a year ago with an average of 50 mbbls a day from its operations in the Utica shale of southern Ohio. Ascent’s chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jeff Fisher gave a hint of what’s to come. “I am pleased to say that we built on our success from the first quarter by continuing to balance our development program to more prominently feature liquids in the production mix. By doing so, we have improved price realizations and maximized returns during a volatile quarter for natural gas prices. Second quarter 2024 net production averaged 2,190 mmcfe per day, consisting of 1,910 mmcf per day of natural gas, 12,209 bbls per day of oil and 34,571 bbls per day of natural gas liquids (“NGL”). For the six months ended June 30, 2024, Ascent reported a Net Loss of $12 million, Adjusted Net Income of $314 million and Adjusted EBITDAX of $788 million, along with Cash Flow from Operations of $579 million and Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $275 million. Ascent incurred a total of $425 million of capital expenditures during the six months ended June 30, 2024 consisting of $337 million of D&C costs, $72 million of land and leasehold costs, and $16 million of capitalized interest. As of June 30, 2024, Ascent had total debt of approximately $2.4 billion, with $655 million of borrowings and $169 million of letters of credit issued under the credit facility. Liquidity as of June 30, 2024 was approximately $1.2 billion, comprised of $1.2 billion of available borrowing capacity under the credit facility and $6 million of cash on hand. During the second quarter of 2024, Ascent spud 19 operated wells, hydraulically fractured 18 wells, and turned-in-line 17 wells with an average lateral length of 13,761 feet. As of June 30, 2024, Ascent had 888 gross operated producing Utica wells. The company confirmed again its use of “significant hedges” in place in order to reduce exposure to the volatility in commodity prices, as well as to protect expected operating cash flow. As of June 30, 2024, Ascent had hedged 1,483,000 mmbtu per day of natural gas production for the remainder of 2024 at an average downside price of $3.49 per mmbtu, and 1,450,000 mmbtu per day in 2025 at an average downside price of $3.80 per mmbtu. Additionally, Ascent has hedged 10,000 bbls per day of crude oil production at an average price of $75.39 per bbl for the remainder of 2024, and 6,000 bbls per day in 2025 at an average price of $71.13. We also have a significant portion of our natural gas basis position hedged in 2024 and 2025 along with additional natural gas hedges in place through 2027.
The Story of Utica Oil Part 5: Utica is “the Last Oil Frontier” - Marcellus Drilling News - Writing for Hart Energy’s Oil and Gas Investor magazine, author Nissa Darbonne penned a fabulous overview of the Utica, bringing us the history of oil drilling in Ohio (in the 1800s) all the way up to the present day and Encino Energy’s dominance in oil drilling in the Utica. The article includes details about Encino and other companies, including Infinity Natural Resources and EOG Resources. Yesterday, we brought you the story of oil giant EOG joining the Utica party (see The Story of Utica Oil Part 4: EOG Resources Joins the Party). Today, in the final installment, we learn more about what makes the Ohio Utica special.
DT Midstream, Inc. (NYSE:DTM) Shares Sold by Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio - Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio reduced its position in DT Midstream, Inc. by 8.3% during the 1st quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The institutional investor owned 38,183 shares of the company’s stock after selling 3,470 shares during the period. Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio’s holdings in DT Midstream were worth $2,333,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.
20 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jul 29 – Aug 4 -- For the week of July 29 – August 4, a total of 20 permits were issued to drill new shale wells in Marcellus/Utica, with the vast majority issued in Ohio. The Buckeye State had 13 new permits, with seven going to EOG Resources split between Noble and Carroll counties. Four permits went to Encino Energy in Harrison County. Two permits were issued to INR (Infinity Natural Resources) in Guernsey County. Pennsylvania issued six new permits last week, with four going to Range Resources in Washington County and two to Snyder Brothers in Armstrong County. West Virginia had just one new permit issued to Southwestern Energy in Marshall County. ARMSTRONG COUNTY | CARROLL COUNTY | ENCINO ENERGY | EOG RESOURCES | GUERNSEY COUNTY | HARRISON COUNTY | INR |MARSHALL COUNTY | NOBLE COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SNYDER BROTHERS | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY |WASHINGTON COUNTY
Shale Drilling Becomes Leaner & Meaner, Lowering Costs | Marcellus Drilling News -We have often marveled at the innovation in the oil and gas industry that happens each year. When we first began to write about shale drilling in 2009, a long horizontal lateral was perhaps a mile. Today, there are wells that go over four miles underground! In 2009, it might take two months for a rig to drill a new well. Today, it’s done in a few weeks. The rigs operating today are doing the work of three to four times the same number just a few years ago. It’s astonishing. The end result is that shale drilling has gotten “leaner and meaner” and has resulted in lowered costs.
Harris once wanted to ban fracking. Trump wants voters in energy-rich Pennsylvania to remember (AP) — Facing the need to win battleground Pennsylvania, Vice President Kamala Harris is swearing off any prior assertion that she opposed fracking, but that hasn't stopped Republican Donald Trump from wielding her now-abandoned position to win over voters in a state where the natural gas industry means jobs. Last week, in his first appearance in Pennsylvania since Harris became the Democrats' presumptive nominee, Trump repeatedly warned that Harris would ban fracking — a position she held as apresidential primary candidate in 2019 — and devastate the economy in the nation's No. 2 natural gas state. “She's against fracking, she's against oil drilling, she wants everybody to have one electric car and share it with the neighbors," Trump told rallygoers at a Harrisburg rally on Wednesday, which was also his first appearance in the state since he was wounded in a July 13 assassination attempt in Butler County. “Harris has stated repeatedly that she supports, quote, banning fracking. I'll ban fracking, I'll ban it on my first day.” Harris’ campaign, in a statement, insisted she would not ban fracking, and called Trump’s claims an “attempt to distract from his own plans to enrich oil and gas executives at the expense of the middle class.”Still, Trump criticized Harris' support as a senator and candidate in 2020's presidential primary for a Democratic resolution to create a “Green New Deal,” a sweeping progressive effort to shift the country toward renewable energy. Trump called the platform — never fully translated into policy proposals — a “$100 trillion green new scam designed to abolish the oil, coal and natural gas industry entirely.”While Harris considers choosing popular Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as a finalist to be her running mate on the Democratic ticket, Trump has made it clear that he won't concede the swing state, part of the decisive “blue wall” along with Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump repeatedly has said his administration would “drill baby drill” and dismissed Harris' change of position with these words of caution: "Remember, a politician always goes back to what their original thought was.”Republicans routinely attack Democrats over fracking to drive a wedge into the party's fragile alliance between its left wing, which is hostile to fossil fuels, and its bedrock building trade union base, whose workers are building an expanding network of gas pipelines, power plants and processing facilities in Pennsylvania.Republicans have used similar attacks in the past two election cycles, both unsuccessfully, against Joe Biden in 2020's presidential race and against Sen. John Fetterman in 2022.
Multi-Year Study Tries to Understand Support for Fracking in PA -- This is fascinating. A leftist researcher rented an apartment and lived in Williamsport for eight months in 2013. He interviewed over 100 residents of Greater Williamsport (Lycoming County), PA, to learn their views on fracking. He followed up with the participants and made return visits to the region for the next eight years until 2021. The researcher was looking for any wedge issues that he (and the left) could use to convince PA’s salt-of-the-earth, very conservative landowners/voters to turn against the shale industry. Did he find anything he could use? The results of his research were published yesterday as a study in the journal Nature Climate Action.
Natural gas pipeline expansion project in Pennsylvania, four other states on hold - A United States appeals court decision issued July 30 blocks the federally approved construction of a nearly $1 billion natural gas pipeline expansion project that aims to serve three million customers in Pennsylvania and four other mid-Atlantic states. “The court’s decision sets a dangerous precedent by dismissing the reliability needs of local distribution companies to satisfy the demand for energy during critical periods, such as life-threatening winter events,” said Matthew Agen, chief regulatory counsel for energy at the American Gas Association (AGA). The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on Tuesday vacated the approval given in 2023 by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to Transcontinental Gas Pipeline Co. (Transco) to construct its Regional Energy Access expansion project and remanded the case to the commission for a more careful review. Transco, a unit of Tulsa, Okla.-based Williams Companies Inc., wants to expand its existing natural gas transmission system to provide year-round transportation capacity from the Marcellus Shale production area in northeastern Pennsylvania to multiple delivery points and to provide greater access to cleaner, cost-effective energy that would serve the Northeast region by this winter heating season. In Pennsylvania, the proposed project would extend through seven counties, including Luzern, Monroe, Northampton, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and York counties, and would consist of about 36.1 total miles of pipeline in the state. This would include building a 22.3-mile, 30-inch pipe lateral in Luzerne County, and a 13.8-mile, 42-inch pipe loop in Monroe County, according to Williams.Additionally, modifications would be made to several existing compressor facilities, including those in the commonwealth’s Luzerne, York, and Chester counties, while other construction for the project would occur at locations in New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and New York.Williams told Reuters that the court erred, but the company plans to address its concerns. The company also said the decision will not delay full implementation of the project. AGA, which filed an amicus brief with the court in support of Transco, emphasized that the pipeline would provide vital increased supply and added reliability to the Northeast region. AGA also cited a lack of available natural gas created by Winter Storm Elliott in 2022, when low pressures impacted delivery from pipelines across the greater New York metropolitan area. While detailed contingency planning and excellent implementation allowed local natural gas utilities to avoid the worst, if pressures in the area had continued to decline, there could have been a loss of service requiring weeks or months of recovery while leaving untold customers in life-threatening cold without access to natural gas, the AGA said on Wednesday. The additional capacity offered by the Transco pipeline also would play a critical role in rectifying and preventing such critical shortages during future extreme weather events, said AGA, noting that pipeline capacity to transport natural gas from Pennsylvania, the Appalachia, and the rest of the United States to the Northeast is already severely constrained. “We know for a fact that the project will improve overall reliability and diversification of energy infrastructure in the Northeast, ease pipeline constraints, and help address current challenges, including increased natural gas prices during the winter months for consumers,” Agen said. The court called FERC’s decision “arbitrary and capricious,” saying the agency failed to sufficiently review the natural gas pipeline’s potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The court also held that while 73 percent of the pipeline’s capacity is pledged to natural gas local distribution companies and the pipeline was 100-percent subscribed under long-term contracts, there was insufficient evidence that the pipeline was required.
Natural Gas Expansion Goose Cooked By Mid-Atlantic Clean Hydrogen Hub --A proposal to bring more natural gas into New Jersey hit a brick wall last month, after regulators failed to prove that New Jersey needs more gas. The court-ordered halt sets up another round of legal action. However, it’s going to be a tough row to hoe. Natural gas is up against competition from two newly hatched local clean energy industries in New Jersey, in the form of offshore wind farms and the forthcoming Mid-Atlantic Clean Hydrogen Hub.The developers of the Mid-Atlantic Clean Hydrogen Hub plan to re-purpose existing gas pipelines with the aim of supporting a locally produced clean hydrogen industry.The details are still under negotiation, but the general idea is to deploy renewable energy and/or nuclear energy to run electrolysis systems, which separate hydrogen from water with the help of a catalyst. Sustainably speaking, that’s a big step up from the usual way to produce hydrogen, by extracting it from natural gas.In terms of producing one’s own energy locally, that’s also a 180-degree turn in a new direction. New Jersey doesn’t produce natural gas. Its gas utilities and other industries depend on gas imported from other states.The nuclear energy issue aside, what New Jersey does have is a new offshore wind industry. Presumably that would play a key role in the new hydrogen hub. Electrolyzers can run at night, when residential and commercial electricity demand drops and wind speeds are more optimal (see more offshore wind background here).The Mid-Atlantic hub includes parts of Pennsylvania, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. It is one of a network of seven new H2 hubs across the US in the new $7 billion Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub program, funded by the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.The program is administered by the US Department of Energy. As stipulated by the law, the Energy Department is required to include extraction from natural gas in the program. However, gas is not required to be present in each hub. The Mid-Atlantic hub is among those to exclude it in favor of alternative sources.As for that proposed natural gas expansion, it’s back to the drawing board for the Regional Energy Access Expansion (REAE) project. The project comes under the umbrella of the century-old Oklahoma-based energy firm Williams. The business suffered some ups and downs back in the 20th century, but it has ridden the fracking boom of the early 21st century to a more robust portfolio. “Today, the company is one of the largest gatherers and processors of natural gas in the Marcellus and Utica shale-gas supply regions,” Williams says of itself.Williams also notes that it has “continued to invest in expanding its Transco interstate natural gas pipeline system – the nation’s largest, and fastest-growing – to create access to the ‘best markets’ to the north and south of the Marcellus and Utica supply areas.”
Williams Advances Projects On and Offshore as Natural Gas Demand Seen Exceeding Expectations - Williams is plowing ahead to bring a large Southeast project online amid the “unprecedented pace” in natural gas demand growth. It is also turning attention to other burgeoning opportunities, including offshore in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), executives said. Map showing Williams' pipeline expansion projects. “The good news is that a meaningful increase in natural gas demand continues to exceed our expectations,” CEO Alan Armstrong said during the second quarter earnings call. The supply side is poised to return over 1 Bcf/d of volume to Williams’ gathering systems from completed but delayed wells and those temporarily shut-in, he said. Armstrong said the optimistic view came regardless of the macro environment, as its businesses, specifically transmission and storage and gathering and processing, “held up very well despite challenging natural gas prices.”
EIA Says Natural Gas Supply and Demand Coming Into Balance - As we’ve discussed many times before, the price for natural gas (especially the NYMEX futures price) is primarily determined by supply and demand — Economics 101. When there is too much supply with the same or less demand, prices go down. And boy, have they gone down! The problem we’ve struggled with all this year is too much supply. A number of drillers (many in the Marcellus/Utica) have pulled back on production to take some of the supply off the table. A good measure of supply is the inventory or storage number. Natural gas is stored during the “summer” season for use later during the “winter” season. As we began the injection “summer” season earlier this year, natgas inventories were 39% above the five-year average. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts inventories will have dropped to 6% above the five-year average by the end of October.
Gulfport Pivoting to Liquids-Rich Production in Lower 48, but ‘Significant Upside’ for Natural Gas --Multi-basin independent Gulfport Energy Corp., whose Lower 48 portfolio is 92% weighted to natural gas, is holding production flat to wait for stronger prices into 2025. Chart showing Gulfport's production and estimates. CEO John Reinhart discussed second quarter performance and expectations for the year during a conference call. He was joined by CFO Michael Hodges. The Oklahoma City-based producer works in the Marcellus and Utica shales of Appalachia. It also develops oil and gas in the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province, aka the SCOOP. The company today is navigating “a volatile and ever-changing commodity price environment,” Reinhart said. To that end, the key is to retain “flexibility” until commodity prices improve. Related Tags
Eagle LNG Asks FERC to Push Florida Export Project’s Deadline to 2029 -- To evaluate the impacts of cost inflation, Eagle LNG Partners LLC has asked FERC to extend the in-service deadline for a small-scale natural gas export project planned for Jacksonville, FL. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission granted Houston-based Eagle approval in 2019 to build the roughly 1 million metric ton/year (mmty) capacity liquefied natural gas facility. The deadline to complete the facility was mid-September. However, the company told FERC staff that it needed an additional five years to complete the greenfield project. The extension is necessary because of lingering impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as turbulent commodity markets and storms.
ExxonMobil CEO says Golden Pass plant to deliver first LNG in H2 2025 - Energy giants QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil are now expecting to start LNG production at their Golden Pass LNG export terminal on the US Gulf Coast near Sabine Pass, Texas in the second half of 2025, according to ExxonMobil's CEO Darren Woods.
Cheniere on Track for First LNG This Year at Corpus Christi Expansion — Cheniere Energy Inc. expects to produce first LNG at its Corpus Christi LNG (CCL) expansion project in South Texas by the end of this year. The company also is planning to introduce natural gas to Train 1 in two months, management said Thursday. Management said the company has energized the Train 1 liquefaction and utility substations and started regulatory filings in preparation for commissioning. The CCL Stage 3 expansion project would add seven trains and 10 million metric tons/year (mmty) of capacity to the existing 15 mmty facility. All seven trains are expected to be online by 2026. Plans for two more trains that would add another 3 mmty at the site received a positive environmental assessment from federal regulators in June. Cheniere expects to sanction the Midscale Trains 8 & 9 project next year.
Cheniere seals long-term LNG supply deal with Galp - US LNG exporting giant Cheniere has signed a long-term deal to supply liquefied natural gas to Portuguese energy firm and LNG player Galp.Under the 20-year sales and purchase deal, Galp will buy from Cheniere 0.5 mtpa of LNG contingent to FID of the second train of the Sabine Pass liquefaction expansion project, currently under development, according to a statement by Galp released on Monday.Also, the deal includes access to a limited number of “early” LNG cargoes, from 2027 and up to the start of the second train, it said.Galp’s volumes will be purchased on a FOB basis and priced indexed to Henry Hub plus a fixed liquefaction fee.“This agreement further enhances Galp’s LNG sourcing basket with access to competitive US volumes, adding flexibility and diversity to its portfolio,” it said.Galp already has a 20-year LNG supply deal with US LNG exporter Venture Global, but the latter has not yet declared commercial operations at the Calcasieu Pass facility since shipping the first commissioning cargo on March 1, 2022.The SPA signed back in 2018 includes the supply of one mtpa from the Calcasieu Pass plant to Galp. Cheniere, the largest LNG exporter in the US, said in a separate statement later on Monday LNG deliveries are expected under the SPA with Galp are expected to start in the early 2030s.The supplies are subject to, among other things, a positive final investment decision with respect to the second train (train eight) of the Sabine Pass liquefaction expansion project.The company’s Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana currently has a capacity of about 30 mtpa following the launch of the sixth train in February 2022.Cheniere aims to build two new liquefaction trains as part of the Sabine Pass Stage 5 expansion project to add up to 20 mtpa of capacity to the giant facility, including debottlenecking opportunities.In February 2024, Cheniere’s units submitted an application to the US FERC for authorization to site, construct, and operate the SPL expansion project, as well as an application to the DOE requesting authorization to export LNG to FTA and non-FTA countries.Besides the Sabine Pass plant, Cheniere’s three-train Corpus Christi plant in Texas can produce about 15 mtpa of LNG and is undergoing expansion to add more than 10 mtpa of capacity.The Stage 3 expansion project at Cheniere’s Corpus Christi LNG export plant in Texas is 62.4 percent complete, according to the June construction report filed with the US FERC.The US LNG exporting giant is expecting to start production at the first train later this year.On top of this expansion, Cheniere plans to build two more liquefaction trains as part of the third expansion phase at the Corpus Christi plant.
Court Nixes Rio Grande, Texas LNG Approvals, Creating More Obstacles for Gulf Coast Buildout --The Rio Grande and Texas LNG projects are potentially facing lengthy delays after a federal appeals court on Tuesday vacated their FERC authorizations, effectively leaving them without a key approval to move ahead with construction and operation. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit again sent the authorizations back to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for further consideration of the projects’ environmental impacts. Environmental groups challenged the projects, arguing that FERC did not adequately consider their environmental justice impacts and emissions. The court upheld most of the petitioners’ arguments. FERC must now issue a new draft supplemental environmental impact statement and start a new public comment period, both lengthy processes.
U.S. court overturns FERC's authorization for NextDecade's Rio Grande project -- A U.S. court has overturned the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) authorization for NextDecade's Rio Grande LNG project for not issuing a supplemental environmental impact statement, the company said on Tuesday. The facility has been in development for several years, suffering repeated delays, and phase 1 is now expected to reach completion by early 2029 at an expected cost of about $18 B. NextDecade said it was "disappointed in the court's decision and disagrees with its conclusions." "At this time, construction continues on the first three liquefaction trains and related infrastructure (Phase 1)" the company said, adding it "is evaluating the impact of the court's decision on the timing of a positive final investment decision (FID) on Train 4". Earlier this year, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) acquired an 11.7% stake in phase 1 of the project and NextDecade signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco to supply 1.2 MMtpy of LNG for 20 years. NextDecade was planning to start the construction of the fourth liquefaction train in the second half of 2024 after the FID.
EIA Raises Natural Gas Price Forecast Amid Curtailed Output, Strong Power Demand - Continued production curtailments and rising electric power sector demand are expected to drive Henry Hub natural gas prices higher through the end of 2024 and lead to production growth in 2025, according to updated federal forecasts. In the August release of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected the national benchmark’s natural gas spot price average at about $2.60/MMBtu for the final five months of the year. That would be up 53.0 cents from the July average, but below the average of $2.69 during the same period in 2023.Record low Henry Hub natural gas spot prices in the first half of the year led producers to curtail production. With prices still foundering, EQT Corp., the largest natural gas producer in the United States, said recently it would continue curtailing production by about 0.5 Bcf/d through the second half of the year.
US natgas rises over 4% to near one-week high on hot-weather forecasts (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 4% to a near one-week high on Wednesday, boosted by forecasts for hotter weather over the next two weeks that should boost air conditioning demand. Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 5.8 cents, or about 3%, to $2.07 per million British thermal units at 9:37 a.m. EDT (1337 GMT). "The southern tier of the country has seen temperatures rise again, with Texas seeing triple-digit heat and calm winds leading to strong power-sector gas demands, and weather for later in the month has heat continuing, which is giving some support, as the storage surplus is expected to continue to erode," Financial firm LSEG estimated 220 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly lower from 221 CDDs estimated on Tuesday. The normal for this time of year is 190 CDDs. Cooling degree days, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius). LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 states had risen to an average of 103.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, up from 103.4 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to rise to 109.7 bcfd this week from 105.8 bcfd last week, before declining to 104.5 bcfd next week. U.S. natural gas output will average around 103.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its August edition of the short-term energy outlook report on Tuesday. That compares with 103.8 bcfd produced last year, and is a slight downgrade from a forecast of 103.5 bcfd in the July edition of the report. Major U.S. natural gas producers are preparing to further curtail production in the second half of 2024, after prices sank nearly 40% over the past two months. "Long-term markets could see some selling after the D.C. Circuit Court ruling yesterday, which vacated the FERC approvals for both Texas LNG and the Rio Grande expansion," The U.S. court overturned the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's authorization for NextDecade's Rio Grande LNG project for not issuing a supplemental environmental impact statement, the company said on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices edged lower on Wednesday, as ample supply offset the impact of forecasts that hot weather next week will increase power sector demand and concerns about possible disruption as tensions flare in the Middle East. NG/EU
Once Again, Utilities in South Central Withdraw Natural Gas from Storage in Heart of Summer -- For the fourth consecutive week, underground supplies of natural gas in storage in the South Central dwindled, bucking seasonal norms as every other region injected excess fuel into underground stocks. NGI's weekly Henry Hub, Waha natural gas price vs South Central storage chart. Utilities in the region pulled 5 Bcf of gas from storage during the week ended Aug. 2, driven by a decrease in salt facilities, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Thursday. It followed a 10 Bcf pull the prior week. Both draws played outsized roles in consecutive overall lean storage prints relative to expectations and historical averages. The latest result “sparked some bullish momentum,” analysts at Gelber & Associates noted, with front month Nymex natural futures rallying several cents after the report crossed the wires. It ultimately settled at $2.127/MMBtu for the day, up 1.5 cents.
Bayou Lafourche oil spill contained and clean-up expected to finish next week - The oil spill from the Crescent Midstream pumping station in Bayou Lafourche on Saturday has been successfully contained. The spill was traced to a leaking fuel tank and valve failure, prompting immediate response efforts to minimize environmental damage. The containment was achieved through the coordinated efforts of local, state, and federal agencies, along with specialized clean-up crews. Lafourche Parish President Archie Chaisson… “We’re moving into that kind of flushing operation where they’re spraying water from the bayou into the vegetation to try to flush out that oil that’s against the bank.” Booms and skimmers were deployed to prevent the spread of the more than 34-thousand gallons of oil, and vacuum trucks have been used to remove oil that contaminated the water. Environmental monitoring teams have been dispatched to assess the impact on local wildlife and vegetation. Chaisson says preliminary reports suggest minimal long-term damage. ” I think were gonna be ok long term, but again were gonna continue to do some monitoring I think in the coming months.” The rapid response and efficient coordination among various agencies have been praised for preventing a potentially more severe environmental disaster. “Overall we’re doing pretty well and we’re gonna move into I think more of a maintenance phase as we get into next week.” There have been no issues with drinking water or air quality, but both are continually being checked.
Markey and Grijalva urge pause on deepwater oil terminal approvals - Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Az.) on Friday called on the Biden administration to pause approvals for deepwater oil export terminals. In a letter to the U.S. Department of Transportation Maritime Administration (MARAD), Markey and Grijalva called for the approval criteria for deepwater terminals to be expanded to factor in criteria like public health, environmental justice and impact on climate change. The criteria currently requires MARAD to determine whether such ports “will be in the national interest and consistent with national security and other national policy goals and objectives, including energy sufficiency and environmental quality.” In its most recent approval, MARAD cleared the Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT) off the coast of Texas in November 2022, although applications are still pending for three further terminals. Only one further terminal is currently online. If the SPOT facility were to come online, it would have the capacity to move 2 million barrels daily, the largest U.S. expert terminal, for an estimated 232 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in total, according to MARAD. Grijalva and Markey noted that MARAD has never denied an export facility approval and took issue with the determination that allowing such facilities to come online is in keeping with the national interest. They further pointed to an executive order President Biden issued in 2021 that requires federal agencies to suspend operations that do not comport with the administration’s public health and environmental goals. “Broadening MARAD’s interpretation of national interest — which already requires an assessment of the impact on energy sufficiency and environmental quality — to more fully include environmental justice, climate, and public health considerations would be consistent with President Biden’s directive. Such a step would also recognize that the anticipated emissions from these oil export facility projects would counteract the benefits of the historic climate investments in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).” The Hill has reached out to the Transportation Department for comment.
Summit Sees Drop-off in Gas Traffic Following Utica Midstream Sale | Hart Energy -- Summit Midstream’s transformation into a crude-focused midstream company resulted in a major drop in natural gas traffic for the second quarter, as throughput declined 46%, to 716 MMcf/d, from first-quarter 2024.In March, Summit announced a $625 million deal to sell its assets in the Utica Shaleto an MPLX subsidiary. Company leadership said the focus would be on oil-rich basins in the Permian Basin and Rockies. Summit no longer owns any Northeast U.S. assets.Summit made the deal after beginning a strategic review process in 2023 to increase shareholder value. Besides moving away from its natural gas assets in the Northeast, the company also reorganized from an MLP to a C-Corporation.Summit closed on a refinancing of its capital structure, including a new asset-based lending facility worth $500 million and a $575 million senior notes issue. Both mature in 2029."Summit has made considerable progress towards executing its long-term strategy over the last four months,” said Heath Deneke, Summit CEO, chairman and president. “With this maturity extension and improved liquidity profile, Summit is well positioned with a strong balance sheet and additional financial flexibility to support execution of the base business plan, continue to pursue opportunistic, bolt-on acquisitions and continue to utilize our strong free cash flow generating platform.”During the second quarter, the company’s liquids volumes increased 1.4% to 75 MMbbl/d relative to the first three months of the year. Summit recorded a net loss of $23.8 million for the quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $43.1 million.MPLX Expects Delaware Basin Gas Processing to Reach 1.4 Bcf/d - --MPLX LP expects its processing capacity in the Permian’s Delaware Basin to reach 1.4 Bcf/d due to the near-term rise in throughput volumes at its Preakness ll processing plant coupled with the start of operations at its Secretariat processing plant.In the Delaware, the 200 MMcf/d Preakness ll processing plant began operations in July, MPLX said during its Aug. 6 second-quarter earnings release. The plant is expected to boost throughput volumes over the next 12 months.Secretariat, MPLX's seventh processing plant in the Delaware, is expected to come online in the second half 2025, the company said.In the gathering and processing space, MPLX—a diversified MLP that owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets and provides fuels distribution services—remains focused on the Permian and the Marcellus Shale in response to producer demand, the company said.In the Utica Shale, MPLX’s gathering and processing volumes continue to rise, inclusive of assets acquired in March 2024.Summit Midstream agreed to divest its assets in the Utica Shale to an MPLX subsidiary for $625 million in cash. The March 2024 deal included Summit's 36% interest in the Ohio Gathering Co. and 38% interest in the Ohio Condensate Co., along with other Utica assets.MPLX was formed by Marathon Petroleum in 2012 as a limited partnership to focus on midstream and logistic infrastructure in key U.S. natural gas basins.
ExxonMobil Overcomes ‘Softer’ Commodity Prices and Permian Outperforms, Lifted by Pioneer Merger --Integrated energy major ExxonMobil is seeing bottom-line gains by simplifying and standardizing operations, a strategy that should continue to benefit the global natural gas and oil operations, CEO Darren Woods said Friday. NGI's Henry Hub natural gas price chart. “Overall, market conditions were softer in the second quarter,” he said during the second quarter conference call. Natural gas prices continued to slump but “oil prices remained firm.” Natural gas traded at Waha averaged negative 53.7 cents/MMBtu during 2Q2024, down from $1.502 in the year-ago period, according to NGI’s Daily Historical Data. Prices at the benchmark for the Permian Basin, where ExxonMobil saw production jump year/year from its merger with Pioneer Natural Resources Co., have remained suppressed at negative 14.0 cents as of Monday (Aug. 5).
Oil and gas jobs decline amid record-breaking production - The United States is pumping out more oil and gas than any country in history. But even as production soars, oil field employment keeps shrinking. The decade long decline isn’t driven by climate policy or the rise in clean energy. Instead, it’s the result of boom-and-bust cycles — and the fossil fuel industry’s relentless push for efficiency. “You just need fewer workers to produce more oil,” said Greg Upton, executive director of Louisiana State University’s Center for Energy Studies. “When you need less workers, that’s a sign of growth. On the other hand, these are real people losing their jobs.” Oil production is up 5 percent since 2019, the last peak before the pandemic. The industry set a new record for crude production last week, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, pumping an average of 13.4 million barrels a day. But employment among the people who find that oil and pull it out of the ground is down nearly 20 percent from prepandemic levels. Oil and gas production still supports hundreds of thousands of jobs in the United States, from the rig floor to office suites in Houston skyscrapers. Even at the low end, many pay enough to offer middle-class incomes to people without college degrees. And many of the jobs supported by oil and gas drilling are also far from the oil field — such as the union pipefitters who work in refineries and the workers at nearby restaurants. The Marcellus Shale Coalition trade group says in Pennsylvania the industry supports 10 times the jobs that drilling wells create directly. But declining oil field employment shows that the transition away from fossil fuel jobs is already happening without drilling bans or comprehensive federal climate regulation.
Ranchers reported abandoned oil wells spewing wastewater. A new study blames fracking. | The Texas Tribune -Fracking wastewater, injected underground for permanent disposal, traveled 12 miles through geological faults before bursting to the surface through a previously plugged West Texas oil well in 2022, according to a new study from Southern Methodist University.It’s the first study to draw specific links between wastewater injection and recent blowouts in the Permian Basin, the nation’s top producing oil field, where old oil wells have lately begun to spray salty water.It raises concerns about the possibility of widespread groundwater contamination in West Texas and increases the urgency for oil producers to find alternative outlets for the millions of gallons of toxic wastewater that come from Permian Basin oil wells every day.“We established a significant link between wastewater injection and oil well blowouts in the Permian Basin,” wrote the authors of the study, funded in part by NASA and published last month in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. The finding suggests "a potential for more blowouts in the near future,” it said.For years, the Texas agency that regulates the oil and gas extraction industry has refrained from putting forth an explanation for the blowout phenomenon, even as achorus of local landowners alleged that wastewater injections were driving the flows of gassy brine onto the surface of their properties since about 2022.Injection disposal is currently the primary outlet for the tremendous amount of oilfield wastewater, also known as produced water, that flows from fracked oil wells in West Texas. Thousands of injection wells dot the Permian Basin, each reviewed and permitted by Texas’ oilfield regulator, the Texas Railroad Commission.Oil producers are exploring alternatives — a small portion of produced water isreused in fracking, and Texas is in the process of permitting facilities that will treat produced water and release it into rivers and streams. Still, underground injection remains the cheapest and most popular method by far.A scientific connection has solidified between the practice of injection disposal and the increasing strength and frequency of earthquakes nearby. In the Permian Basin, a steady crescendo of tremors peaked last November with magnitude 5.4 earthquake, the state’s strongest in 30 years, triggering heightened restrictions on injections in the area.The link between injections and surface blowouts, however, has remained unconfirmed, despite widespread suspicions. The latest study marks a big step forward in scientific documentation.“It just validates what we’ve been saying,” Sarah Stogner, an oil and gas attorney who ran an unsuccessful campaign for a seat on the Railroad Commission in 2022, said about the latest study.For the last three years, Stogner has represented the Antina Cattle Ranch, where dozens of abandoned oil wells have been spraying back to life. Stogner persistently alleged that nearby wastewater injection was responsible. But she couldn’t prove it.Now a scientific consensus is beginning to fall in behind her.“Our work independently comes to this same conclusion in different areas [of the Permian Basin],” said Katie Smye, a geologist with the Center for Injection and Seismicity Research at the University of Texas at Austin, citing several upcoming papers she and her colleagues will release at major geoscience conferences in the coming year. “There is a link between injection and surface flows in some cases.”
A Legal Fight Over Legacy Oil Industry Pollution Heats Up in West Texas - —A dozen people huddle around a 10-foot deep hole in the parched West Texas soil. The group falls silent in anticipation as well-control specialist Hawk Dunlap, in a red jumpsuit, scrapes at the soil with a shovel. A lawyer in a hardhat peers down and trains his iPhone camera on the excavation.Dunlap unearths what was buried decades ago. Not a cadaver, but a plugged oil well. Or at least it was supposed to be plugged. Decades underground had corroded the metal casing and cement that sealed the half-mile deep well. Leaking crude oil had stained the casing black. Gas hissed from the rusted, stained well head. Contractors got to work, collecting soil samples and measuring compounds in the gas. The well was clearly leaking.“Things shouldn’t be left out here like that,” Dunlap observed drolly. “Not by an international oil company.” Chevron holds the lease for this old well—and dozens of others—at Antina Ranch in Crane County, Texas. Ashley Watt, who inherited the ranch from her parents, filed a lawsuit in the 109th District Court in Crane County against Chevron and other oil companies in December 2022. She alleges that the multinational and smaller companies failed to properly plug and abandon wells on the property. She argues that old wells are now leaking, contaminating the groundwater and surface of her ranch. The common wisdom is that once an oil or gas well is plugged, the chapter is closed. Regulators don’t require operators to go back and check the plugs. Most everyone assumes that crude oil, produced water and gases like methane won’t leak from a plugged well. But Watt and her team are documenting how decades-old plugs can fail, with disastrous consequences. She wants Chevron to re-plug and remediate wells on her land. The ambitious lawsuit, still in the discovery phase, could upend assumptions about plugging oil and gas wells. “This is a colossal liability that’s going to have to be borne by somebody,” Watt said. “Whether it’s the companies—or, if they pass the buck—the taxpayers of the state of Texas.”The first sign that something was wrong at Antina Ranch came in June 2021, when the Estes 24 well began spewing toxic water to the surface. In the three years since the original well blowout, Watt and Stogner say they have excavated about 90 of the roughly 330 wells on the ranch and found widespread integrity problems. As the scale of their endeavor became clear, they brought on Daniel Charest, an experienced Dallas trial attorney with Burns Charest LLP.“This problem went from being, ‘Oh, there’s a leaky well or two,’ to, ‘There are hundreds,’” Watt said. In December 2022, Watt filed suit against Chevron and Walsh and Watts Inc., Pitts Energy Co. and Williams Oil Company, smaller oil companies that took over low-producing wells on the ranch. The lawsuit aims to get the wells replugged and for Watt to be made whole for the damages to the property. Watt wants the court to find Chevron and the other companies liable for contamination, require cleanup and restoration of the property and require Chevron to pay monetary damages.
Oklahoma’s Oil Industry Touts a Voluntary Fund to Clean Up Oil Wells. Major Drillers Want Their Contributions Refunded. -Oklahoma’s oil and gas industry touts its altruism and environmental stewardship by pointing to a voluntary levy that companies pay on their production, which is then used to clean up orphan wells that have been left to the state.But some of Oklahoma’s biggest oil companies have opted out of the fund, forcing the state to return millions of dollars that would have otherwise gone to restoring land scarred by discarded drilling infrastructure and contaminated by leaks and spills, according to a ProPublica and Capital & Main analysis.The list of companies that received such refunds includes some of the Oklahoma oil industry’s household names, such as Ovintiv and Chesapeake Energy Corp. It also includes the two richest people in the state: Harold Hamm, a pioneer in fracking technology and the founder of the multibillion-dollar Continental Resources, and George Kaiser, whose success as head of his family’s oil company helped him buy the Bank of Oklahoma.All told, dozens of oil companies received refunds worth about $11 million over the past seven years, ProPublica and Capital & Main found. Put another way, for every $100 the state brought in via this funding mechanism, it sent $8.58 back to oil companies.The Oklahoma Energy Resources Board, created by the Legislature in 1993, collects a 0.1% assessment on oil and gas production that functions like a tax on the state’s largest industry. The roughly $163 million collected — after refunds — since the levy’s inception has funded the restoration of more than 20,000 sites.If the board had not had to issue the millions of dollars in refunds, it could have restored an additional 1,500 orphan well sites, according to the board’s average cleanup bill. Until they are plugged, these wells can leak a litany of pollutants, from toxic gasses to salty wastewater, presenting an environmental crisis across Oklahoma.ProPublica and Capital & Main reached out to all 76 companies that requested refunds in the past seven years as well as to the main in-state trade groups, the Oklahoma Energy Producers Alliance and the Petroleum Alliance of Oklahoma. The Petroleum Alliance of Oklahoma, Hamm’s Continental Resources, Kaiser’s Kaiser-Francis Oil Co., Chesapeake Energy and Ovintiv did not respond to requests for comment.Only two oil producers answered questions: one said she requested refunds to cut down on contact with regulators, while the other dismissed concerns about the refunds, stating that “it’s not that much money.”
BLM’s Bakken oil lease sale brings in $24M -The Bureau of Land Management netted roughly $24 million from an oil and gas sale on public lands in North Dakota and Montana on Tuesday, over the protests of climate organizations.The oil lease auction was the most lucrative the Biden administration has held in the region this year, but it still fell short of what some drillers wanted to see on the table. It was opposed by several prominent environmental groups who have called on President Joe Biden to end oil sales on public lands because of fossil fuels’ contribution to climate change.The auction included more than 5,000 acres, with most parcels clustered in the prolific Bakken oil region. A handful of parcels were also offered for auction in northern and southern Montana.Earlier this year, a BLM oil auction of similar size in Montana and North Dakota brought in $663,524.
Tourmaline Sees California Natural Gas Market Tightening on Data Center, Mexico LNG Demand --Canada’s largest natural gas producer, Tourmaline Oil Corp., expects the already tight California natural gas market to become more lucrative amid rising demand and limited transport capacity. NGI's NOVA/AECO C forward basis chart. “We obviously really like the California market, and we’ve been building our volumes to access that market for almost 10 years now,” CEO Mike Rose said during a call to discuss the Calgary-based company’s second quarter earnings. As a result, “we’re up to almost .5 Bcf/d accessing that market and it’s one of the premium priced markets in all of North America – at times it trades almost at LNG pricing.” NGI’s Malin forward basis price for winter 2024/2025 delivery averaged $1.696/MMBtu on Monday, while the corresponding PG&E Citygate forward basis price was $2.305.
Looming LNG Demand Surge Poised to Sop Up Excess Canadian Natural Gas Supply, Impact Prices -- Production soared to record levels in Canada and intersected with a relatively mild winter earlier this year. This left the country with robust supply and weak natural gas prices. It also resulted in elevated levels of exports to the Lower 48, where buyers capitalized on relatively low-cost gas. NGI's Canadian border price tracker. However, the pending ramp up of LNG Canada could soon begin soaking up excess natural gas and impact prices on both sides of the border, according to analysts and producers. The Shell plc-led liquefied natural gas export project in British Columbia has been testing its terminal and is targeting final commissioning this year. Commercial operations are slated to follow in 2025, when LNG Canada could process up to 2 Bcf/d – or more than 10% of Canadian output at its record level. The country recorded all-time high production around 19 Bcf/d in 2023 and again early this year.
Ksi Lisims LNG Project Partners Launch Western Canadian Pipeline Construction with Bechtel --The Nisga’a Nation and Western LNG are working to amend the route of their Prince Rupert Gas Transmission (PRGT) project in British Columbia (BC) as early site work begins this month. NGI's map of BC gas facilities. The Nisg̱a’a Lisims Government and Houston-based Western LNG recently disclosed that the partnership had selected Bechtel Group to manage construction of the pipeline connecting Montney Shale gas supply to its proposed Ksi Lisims LNG export project. “We are keenly aware of our responsibility to establish a new and improved approach to linear infrastructure development in Canada and partnering with industry-leading experts will help us make PRGT the best project it can be,” Western LNG CEO Davis Thames said.
Sempra’s Mexico LNG Project Startup Pushed Back to Spring 2026 -- Construction of Sempra Infrastructure’s Energía Costa Azul (ECA) LNG Phase 1 in Mexico has hit a snag due to what the San Diego, CA-based company called labor and productivity challenges. The 3 million metric tons/year (mmty) export project, which would source U.S. natural gas, would now see the start of commercial operations pushed back from next year to the spring of 2026, management said during a second quarter earnings call on Tuesday. The company said work would be finished next year, when the plant is now expected to produce first liquefied natural gas. Construction at the project in Ensenada in Mexico’s Baja California is approximately 85% complete. “However, our contractor has experienced labor retention and productivity issues in recent months,” CFO Karen Sedgwick said.
Rio Negro, Near Unconventional Natural Gas Fields, Tapped for Agentina LNG Exports --Argentina’s 51% state-owned oil and gas company YPF SA, in partnership with Malaysian national oil company Petronas, has settled on the northern edge of Patagonia for their planned LNG export project. Graph showing Argentina LNG imports. “After an extensive technical and economic evaluation process undertaken by the YPF and Petronas teams we came to the conclusion that the most advantageous place for the project is Sierra Grande in the province of Río Negro,” executives said in a joint statement. Río Negro, considered to be in northern Patagonia, borders Neuquén, home to the vast majority of the natural gas-rich Vaca Muerta shale formation. The companies said the proximity to the unconventional gas fields, and the shorter pipelines, would be needed to transport the feed gas to the facilities.
SEA-LNG: Methane slip being eliminated as LNG uptake accelerates -- Significant progress is being made to eradicate methane slip as uptake of the LNG pathway accelerates, and this is worth underlining. With continued collaborative efforts across the value chain, methane slip will be eliminated for all engine technologies within the decade. Today, two-stroke diesel cycle engines account for approximately 75% of the LNG-fuelled vessel order book. These engines have effectively eliminated slip already. For low-pressure engine technologies where methane slip remains a challenge, manufacturers have already cut the levels of slip from low-pressure four-stroke engines by more than 85% over the past 25 years. It is worth noting that methane slip has been eradicated for the similar LNG dual-fuel engine technologies used in the heavy-duty vehicle sector. The science is clear, the technologies exist, and ongoing engineering will soon solve the problem. Peter Keller, Chairman of SEA-LNG, said: “We congratulate the efforts and initiatives such as the Methane Abatement in Maritime Innovation Initiative (MAMII) and the GREEN RAY project. As LNG continues to gain widespread recognition as the current practical and realistic alternative fuel pathway, it is reassuring to see growing evidence that the challenge of methane slip will be eliminated within this decade.” There is a growing momentum for LNG as a marine fuel. Clarksons’ data shows that 109 LNG dual fuel vessels have been ordered in 2024 up to June. There are now more than 550 LNG-fuelled vessels in operation, a number expected to double by 2027. Keller concluded: “There is universal agreement that the science is understood, and we have the necessary tools and technology to abate methane emissions, it is the final elements of the engineering that are being worked on. This, in combination with the option to transition to net zero emissions through bio-methane and e-methane, provides ship owners and operators with the confidence that vessels ordered today are future-proofed for the next 25 – 30 years. This cannot be said for any other alternative fuel right now.”
ADNOC Inks Agreement to Deliver Ruwais LNG to Osaka Gas --Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) has signed a long-term heads of agreement with Japan's Osaka Gas for the delivery of up to 0.8 million metric tons per annum (mtpa) of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The LNG will primarily be sourced from ADNOC’s low-carbon Ruwais LNG project, which is currently under development in Al Ruwais Industrial City, Abu Dhabi, and is expected to start commercial operations in 2028, the company said in a news release. Under the agreement, LNG cargoes will be shipped to the destination ports of Osaka Gas and its Singapore-based subsidiary, Osaka Gas Energy Supply and Trading Pte. Ltd. (OGEST). The agreement with Osaka Gas is one of several long-term LNG sales commitments that ADNOC has signed with international partners for Ruwais LNG, the company noted, adding that the existing long-term sales commitments now make up 70 percent of the project’s total production capacity. The two companies will work together to conclude a detailed sale and purchase agreement in the coming months based on the terms of the LNG agreement, according to the release. Rashid Khalfan Al Mazrouei, ADNOC Senior Vice President for Marketing, said, “This landmark LNG agreement, our first long-term LNG deal with Osaka Gas, underscores the strong, long-standing energy partnership between the UAE and Japan. This agreement further enhances ADNOC’s position as a reliable and responsible global energy provider and reflects our commitment to help meet Japan’s energy needs with secure and sustainable energy solutions. The Ruwais LNG project supports our broader strategy to expand our global LNG footprint to enable the energy transition”. Keiji Takemori, Osaka Gas Executive Vice President, said, “Osaka Gas is delighted to secure LNG from ADNOC, a reliable and responsible global energy supplier. This agreement will significantly enhance the stability of Osaka Gas’ LNG procurement. It will also strengthen the foundation of our stable energy supply to customers, transition to lower carbon energy, and acceleration towards our net zero target. We will continue working on the stable procurement, development and supply of natural gas as a key transition fuel”. The Ruwais LNG project will consist of two 4.8-mtpa LNG liquefaction trains with a total capacity of 9.6 mtpa, more than doubling ADNOC’s existing UAE LNG production capacity to around 15 mtpa. The Ruwais LNG plant is set to be the first LNG export facility in the Middle East and Africa region to run on clean power, making it one of the lowest-carbon intensity LNG plants in the world, ADNOC said. Further, the facility will leverage artificial intelligence and the latest technologies to enhance safety, minimize emissions and drive efficiency.
China's STL building fleet of world's largest ethane carriers - China's Satellite Chemical (STL) will charter a fleet of up to ten of the world's largest ethane carriers to ship US ethane to China. This new type of vessel can be retrofitted to ship LNG and will be built by China's Jiangnan and South Korea's HD Hyundai Heavy, according to shipbuilding sources.
Asia spot LNG prices remain at 7-month high amid Russian supply concerns | Gas Processing & LNG -Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices remained at their highest level in over seven months, tracking European gains amid concerns over supply disruption. The average LNG price for September delivery into north-east Asia was at $12.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), industry sources estimated. This is the highest level since mid-December and up from $12.80/MMBtu last week. "Asian prices rise this week has largely been underpinned by the European gains, with north-east Asian LNG demand remaining tepid despite hot weather in much of the region, particularly South Korea which is also facing a few unplanned nuclear outages," said Samuel Good, head of LNG pricing at commodity pricing agency Argus. Above-average temperatures are forecast in South Korea, Japan, as well as China’s Beijing and Shanghai in the coming week, which could support strong cooling demand. However, southeast China—where much of gas-fired generation capacity is situated—could return to normal temperatures in the coming weeks, leaving little scope for a late summer jump in power demand, Good said. Gas demand remains high enough in Asia to attract cargoes, said Klaas Dozeman, market analyst at Brainchild Commodity Intelligence, adding that current price levels might withhold price sensitive buyers from the spot market. Dozeman said that the latest La Nina weather pattern forecast has weakened, which might help to decrease next winter's gas demand in Asia and North America compared to earlier forecasts. In Europe, gas prices have risen this week on heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East and after Ukraine mounted a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region, where Russian natural gas flows into Ukraine. The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TFF hub traded at €40.25 earlier on Friday, its highest level since Dec. 8. "While deliveries through the point have been little changed, traders remain concerned that the near 40 MMm3d of gas that passes through Sudzha could be affected, leaving an incentive for some to adjust their trading positions in a bid to avoid being short of gas were prices to spike," Argus' Good said. S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in September on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $12.676/MMBtu on Aug. 8, a $0.15/MMBtu discount to the September gas price at the Dutch TTF hub. Spark Commodities assessed the price at $12.717/MMBtu, while Argus assessed it at $12.700/MMBtu. Atlantic LNG freight rates rose for the first time in a month to $75,250/day on Friday, while the Pacific rates rose for the seventh week running to $86,750/day, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan.
Perspective: What happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine stops? -*-Heavy fighting near the Russian town of Sudzha, where Russian gas flows into Ukraine, has raised concerns over a sudden stop to transit flows via Ukraine before a five-year deal with Russia's Gazprom expires. The Ukraine gas transit route enables Russia to export gas to Europe via Ukraine. The transit deal is set to expire at the end of the year. Kyiv has previously said it has no plans to renew or extend it. According to Ukraine’s gas pipelines operator, Russian gas transit via Ukraine to Europe fell by 28.5% to 14.65 Bm3 last year in from 20.5 Bm3 in 2022. Why could transit stop early? Russia said it was fighting intense battles against Ukrainian forces that had penetrated its southern border near a major natural gas transmission hub of Sudzha. Two Russian military blogs said, without providing evidence, that Ukrainian forces had captured a gas measuring facility at Sudzha, through which Russian natural gas passes. The latter increases the risk for a more sudden stop in Russian pipeline flows via Ukraine, analysts at ING said. For now, Gazprom said it will continue to ship gas through Ukraine on Thursday and Ukraine's gas transit operator also said operations continue as normal. But there is a risk that Gazprom uses the fighting as an excuse to cut flows, said James Waddell, head of European gas and LNG at consultancy Energy Aspects. Ukraine's gas system operator declared force majeure through the other entry point of the transit route, Sokhranivka, and halted flows in 2022, citing "the interference of the occupying forces in technical processes." Most EU nations have lessened their dependence on Russian gas due to the Ukraine invasion. Former main recipients of gas via Ukraine include Austria, Slovakia, Italy, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia and Moldova. Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while others have diversified their sources and taken steps to reduce demand. Moldova, one of Europe's poorest countries, last year sourced all its gas from European markets, leaving available gas from Gazprom for its breakaway eastern region, Transdniestria. Croatia's imports are now minimal and Slovenia's have dropped to near zero after its main gas supplier Geoplin's contract with Gazprom ended last year, a study by the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University said. Austria can import from Italy and Germany, and its utilities have said they have taken precautionary measures if Russian gas supply stops. Hungary has been relying on Russian gas from an alternative route: the TurkStream pipeline, and Slovenia gets its gas from Algeria and other sources. Italy receives most of its gas through a route which facilitates Azeri gas imports and from Algeria. Slovak gas supplier SPP said a consortium of European gas buyers could take over the gas on the Russia-Ukraine border when the transit contract expires, but it is unclear how this might work. Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited, SPP told Reuters. The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details. The EU has been trying to diversify its imports of gas and signed a deal to double imports of Azeri gas to at least 20 Bm3y by 2027 but the advisor said the infrastructure and financing were still not in place to facilitate this expansion. However, with Azeri domestic consumption set to rise, analysts at Energy Aspects said they see only around 1.7 Bm3 available for incremental exports, and there is also little spare capacity to get the gas into Europe.
Ukraine's Lukoil Sanctions Unlikely to Cause Hungary Shortage: Mol CEO --Hungary won’t suffer any oil shortages because of Ukraine’s decision to block the transit of Lukoil PJSC’s crude, the chief executive officer of refiner Mol Nyrt. said. “Let’s not cause panic,” Zsolt Hernadi, chairman and CEO, told a conference in a recording shared by the Budapest-based company Monday. “I don’t think this will lead to an actual shortage.” That contradicts assertions by Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government and Slovakia, which called on the European Union to help resolve the situation. The EU rebuffed those concerns, saying Ukraine’s hardening of sanctions against the Russian producer won’t affect transit operations by trading companies using the Druzhba pipeline. Hungary has 90 days of strategic reserves and can also buy Russian crude via Croatia, Hernadi said at the conference Friday. The nation is better off having more options for importing crude, he said. Hungary has been reluctant to diversify its oil supplies, claiming without evidence that costs would be significantly higher to import from alternatives such as Croatia. Hungary and Slovakia, both landlocked nations that obtained exemptions from EU energy sanctions on Russia, each get at least a third of their crude supplies from Lukoil.
India’s Crude Oil Imports from Russia Surge 1000% - India now sources 40% of its crude oil imports from Russia, with year-to-date volumes averaging 1.6 million barrels per day (mbpd), according to BIMCO. This marks a staggering 1000% increase compared to 2021, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Indian buyers began ramping up their Russian oil imports in 2022 following sanctions by the EU and the US, which previously purchased about 65% of Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports, according to BIMCO. However, sanctions have forced Russia to turn to new buyers, with India emerging as a key market for its discounted Urals crude oil. These cargoes are supposed to adhere to the G7 coalition’s price cap of $60 per barrel or less. As a result, Russian crude oil’s share in India’s seaborne imports have increased, making India the largest buyer in mid-2023, consistently accounting for 35-40% of Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports, according to BIMCO. At the same time, India’s seaborne crude oil imports from Persian Gulf countries have decreased from nearly 70% to 45% as the region redirects its exports to North Europe and the Mediterranean. BIMCO notes that the increase in Russian oil imports to India has led to a 10% rise in the average sailing distance for crude oil tankers and an 8% increase in total tonne miles, despite a 2% drop in volumes. The average sailing distance has increased by 25% compared to 2021. India’s shift in crude oil buying patterns has led to increased use of Aframax and Suezmax tankers, now accounting for 55% of imports, while the use of VLCCs has decreased. The change has also resulted in an older age profile of ships discharging in India, with the average age increasing by four years and the share of ships older than 20 years rising from 2% to 13%. BIMCO points out that Russia-India trade will likely continue at current levels under existing sanctions, but the International Energy Agency predicts that India’s rising oil demand may outpace Russia’s production, leading India to seek alternative suppliers.
Lost income due to oil spill now P78.69M --FISHERFOLKS affected by the oil spill caused by the sinking of a tanker off Limay, Bataan two weeks ago have lost at least P78.69 million in income, according to the latest data from the Department of Agriculture’s (DA) Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Operations Center. The DA attached agency said as of 9 a.m. yesterday, some 28,373 fisherfolks and 5,810 boats have been affected by the oil spill. The agency also reiterated that fishing bans have been declared in Las Piñas, Parañaque; Abucay, Balanga City, Limay, Mariveles and Samal in Bataan; and in Bacoor City, Cavite City, Kawit, Maragondon, Naic, Noveleta, Rosario, Tanza and Ternate in Cavite. In a separate bulletin, the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) said it has been conducting on-ground monitoring and assessment of fishing areas and communities potentially affected by three consecutive maritime incidents in the waters of Bataan. Aside from the tanker MTKR Terranova that sank near the coast of Lamao Point in Limay last July 25, the MTKR Jayson Bradley also sank in the shallow waters of Mariveles last July 27 while MV Mirola 1 ran aground in the waters of Mariveles last July 31. BFAR has deployed personnel in catch landing sites and local markets in affected and nearby areas to ensure that oil spill-contaminated seafood does not reach the consumers and evaluate market dynamics to maintain the price stability of fish. The agency said its floating assets have also been mobilized to assist partner agencies in monitoring and surveillance, clean-up operations and fabrication and deployment of oil spill booms using used nets and coco fiber. BFAR assured it is also in close coordination with the Provincial Local Government Units and the Regional Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council to expedite the early recovery program. It is also set to release fuel subsidies and additional food packs and relief packages to mitigate the impact of the oil spill on the livelihood of displaced fisherfolks while validating alternative areas for capture fishing. “As a safety measure, the Bureau advises against consuming fish caught in areas where oil slicks have been observed. This is to avoid incidents of food poisoning as a result of ingesting contaminated seafood,” BFAR said in its advisory.
Philippine Coast Guard Brings Tanker Spill Under Control - The Philippine Coast Guard and its salvage response partners have been making progress on preventing pollution from the sunken tanker Terra Nova, which went down in rough weather from Typhoon Gaemi on July 25. Terra Nova has an estimated 370,000 gallons of petroleum on board, and has leaked an unknown but substantial amount of its oil into the bay. However, the PCG says that the leakage is now largely under control. As of August 1, all of the valves and high-level alarm pipes to the ship's cargo tanks have been capped, and a work barge and a receiving tanker have been positioned at the wreck site in preparation for siphoning off the remaining cargo. Only a thin sheen is present at the site, the PCG said, and there are control measures to keep it contained, including booms, dispersants and skimmers. Satellite tracking provided by the University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute shows that the size of the spill area coverage has been shrinking significantly. Over the next two weeks, the PCG and its commercial salvage partners will improve on the containment measures currently in place, before siphoning begins. PCG Commandant Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan said that the capping bags that salvage divers used initially to prevent oil from getting out of the tank vents will be replaced by new metal caps. It will take about seven days to fabricate the caps, and another seven days to install them. In the meantime, divers will replace all the capping bags with a new set in order to reduce the risk that any might get punctured and leak. "With the above developments, the siphoning will be moved to not later than two weeks from now. This due diligence measure will however afford us with better control to reduce to barest minimum the possibility of disastrous oil spill during the conduct of siphoning activity," Gavan said. Once the team has siphoned off enough oil, they plan to refloat the vessel and move it to shallower water. That process should take another week, the PCG told local media. The United States Coast Guard and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are providing technical assistance for the response, including a seven-person advisory team, according to the PCG.
Philippines delays recovery of sunken tanker's oil - Khaleej Times - The Philippines postponed on Sunday the removal of fuel from a tanker that sank in Manila Bay, with fears of an environmental catastrophe growing as leaking oil reached shore for the first time. The siphoning of the 1.4 million litres of industrial fuel oil from the vessel's hold was pushed back to Tuesday at the earliest so divers could seal nine leaking valves first, Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Rear Admiral Armando Balilo told reporters. The tanker sank in bad weather off Manila early Thursday, killing one crew member and leaving the country facing the possibility of its worst oil spill ever. "An order was given to seal the valves first before the start of the siphoning operations in order to prevent further leakages," Balilo said on Sunday. "The weather remains bad out there but they have a target to finish this (sealing the valves) by tomorrow." Balilo said leaking oil had now reached a patch of shoreline in Hagonoy municipality, around 40 kilometres northwest of Manila. Coast guard cleanup teams were dispatched to the area on Sunday to spray oil dispersants, he said. Balilo had no estimates as to how much beach was affected or what kind of damage the oil had done. The coast guard has warned that if the entire cargo were to leak, it would be an "environmental catastrophe". It has also called for a suspension of fishing in Manila Bay to prevent people "eating contaminated fish". The Philippines has struggled to contain serious oil spills in the past. It took months to clean up after a tanker carrying 800,000 litres of industrial fuel oil sank off the central island of Mindoro last year, contaminating its waters and beaches and devastating the fishing and tourism industries. Another tanker sank off the central island of Guimaras in 2006, spilling tens of thousands of gallons of oil that destroyed a marine reserve, ruined local fishing grounds and covered stretches of coastline in black sludge. Meanwhile, another coast guard team was dispatched to the mouth of Manila Bay on Saturday to join the search for an unspecified number of crew members who were aboard a second tanker that sank nearby, Balilo said on Sunday. The wreck of the MTKR Jason Bradley has been located and a salvage will follow, a coast guard statement said, adding it had no cargo on board. The sinkings occurred as heavy rains fuelled by Typhoon Gaemi and the seasonal monsoon lashed Manila and surrounding regions in recent days.
Metal caps for sunken tanker being fabricated -- PHILIPPINE Coast Guard (PCG) Commandant Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan yesterday said the fabrication of metal caps for the storage tanks of the sunken tanker in Limay, Bataan is underway. In a television interview, Gavan said two of the metal caps have been completed and are already undergoing testing by the salvage firm hired by the owner of the ill-fated MTKR Terranova. “The manufacturing or the fabrication of steel caps to replace the existing canvass-type of capping bags in place is underway,” Gavan said. “Two have been completed as of yesterday (Sunday) and the salvor is testing these prototypes,” added Gavan. Last week, the PCG said the canvass-type capping bags that were earlier installed on the valves of the storage tanks would have to be replaced with metal caps before the ship’s cargo of 1.4 million liters of industrial fuel oil could be siphoned off. Officials said the siphoning process with the canvass-type capping bags in place may cause oil to further spill from the storage tanks. MTKR Terranova, which has eight storage tanks with three valves each, sank last July 25 off Limay town at a depth of 34 kilometers after it was battered by huge waves, causing the oil spill. “The oil sheen has been contained. Since day five we have been clear of the oil sheen. Oil spill booms are well in place,” Gavan said. PCG spokesman Rear Admiral Armand Balilo said they are expecting the fabrication of the metal caps to be completed this week. After the metal caps are installed, siphoning can start. “This is pursuant to the wisdom of marine engineers and marine architects that we need to stabilize the vessel before the siphoning,” said Balilo. “If you proceed with the siphoning (without the metal caps) and the integrity of the vessel is compromised or the vessel moves, the temporary caps may break down. We will have a larger problem (if this happens).” Two other vessels, the MTKR Jason Bradley and the MV Mirola Uno, also figured in mishaps last July 23 in Mariveles, Bataan. MTKR Jason Bradley was not carrying any fuel cargo when it sank also due to bad weather. It was loaded with 5,500 liters of diesel to power its engine. Some of the diesel has spilled but the PCG said the threat is not serious because diesel dissipates when exposed to sunlight and waves. The spill has been also contained. “As to MTKR Jason Bradley, the plan is to refloat the vessel. We are coordinating with the salvage company and they will be the ones to declare when they will refloat the vessel,” said Balilo, adding the diesel would be siphoned off once the vessel is refloated.
Aramco CEO Says Oil Demand Is Strong, Recent Selloff an Overreaction - The selloff in global oil markets on perceived bad economic news was overdone because demand remains strong, according to top crude exporter Saudi Aramco. Brent crude dropped to almost $75 a barrel on Monday, alongside a rout in global stock markets, after a weaker-than-expected US jobs report sparked fears of a recession. Prices stabilized on Tuesday but remained near the lowest level since January. “The market to my view is overreacting and the fundamentals do not support the drop in prices that we are witnessing today,” Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said on an earnings conference call with journalists. “The market is reading too much into the short term responses and the news coming from the US with regard to the number of jobs for the month.” Despite Aramco’s profit falling in the second quarter due to OPEC+ constraints on the company’s output, Nasser painted a picture of healthy and growing demand. Oil use is set to rise by 1.6 million to 2 million barrels a day this year. That will continue into 2025 when Nasser sees global oil consumption “north of 106 million barrels a day.” Those figures are roughly in line with forecasts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC, of which Saudi Arabia is the de facto leader, and partners like Russia are continuing a regime of production cuts into 2025, though the group will begin unwinding some of the reductions later this year. Refinery run rates in the US and growing demand for jet fuel, gasoline and chemicals in China will continue to drive the market, Nasser said. Aramco is continuing to invest in oil production, natural gas, refining and chemicals, he said. The state-run Saudi producer is in talks for a number of deals in China, particularly for plants that process crude into fuels and further into high yields of chemicals. The company is also looking to boost trading in liquefied natural gas by tapping into supply deals globally and buying more stakes in export terminals outside Saudi Arabia, he said. So far this year, Aramco has bought shares in Chinese refiners, fuel retailers and signed up to LNG supply deals.
Oil Prices Continue to Tumble as U.S. Recession Fears Mount -- Oil prices continued to fall on Monday morning, with both Brent and WTI dropping to their lowest levels since January. The collapse in oil prices, which started on Friday, was driven by fresh U.S. recession fears due to a weak July payrolls report. Demand concerns from China have been weighing on oil prices for quite some time, and fears of a recession in the U.S. will only add to the downward pressure on oil prices. Concerns over the U.S. economy reverberated around the world, with Asian stocks tumbling and the Nikkei posting its largest-ever decline, eclipsing the crash in October 1987 following Black Monday in New York. While demand concerns are driving oil market sentiment, geopolitical risks remain very real. Israel is currently preparing for a potential retaliatory attack from Iran, with the U.S. sending defensive reinforcements to the region. The U.S. embassy in Lebanon has urged citizens to leave the country as soon as possible, further highlighting the risk of escalation in the region.At the time of writing, WTI had fallen by over 2.38% to $71.77 and Brent had dropped by 2.08% to $75.21. Oil markets look set for yet another week of high volatility as demand concerns clash with rising geopolitics risk.
Sharp Sell-off in Equities Market Causes Oil Market Prices to Drop - The oil market sold off sharply on Monday in follow through selling seen in the equities market amid fears of a U.S. recession. Its losses were however limited by Libyan supply losses and concerns that an escalating conflict in the Middle East could further impact crude supply. The market posted a high of $74.46 in overnight trading amid the news that Libya’s Sharara oil field cut its output by 60,000 bpd after protesters had partially shut down the site. However, the market gave up its gains and sold off to a low of $71.67 early in the morning amid a sell off in the equities market across Asia, with Japanese stocks exceeding their 1987 “Black Monday” loss as fears of a U.S. recession sent investors fleeing from risk. The market later bounced off its low and traded in a sideways trading pattern during the remainder of the session. The September WTI contract settled down 58 cents at $72.94 and the October Brent contract settled down 51 cents at $76.30. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 1.99 cents at $2.2986 and the RB market settling up 1.6 cents at $2.3336. Oil production at Libya’s Sharara field has been reduced by 60,000 bpd or about 20% of its capacity due to ongoing protests in the area. Earlier, Reuters reported that local protesters partially shut down the field, which the Libyan government described as “political blackmail”.Palestinian officials said an Israeli airstrike hit two schools in Gaza City on Sunday, killing at least 30 people, while the Israeli military said it struck a Hamas military compound embedded in the schools. An Israeli airstrike hit a tent camp inside a hospital in central Gaza earlier in the day. Gaza health officials said a total of at least 44 Palestinians were killed on Sunday, the day after a round of talks in Cairo ended without result. Israel is bracing for a serious escalation following the assassination of Hamas’ leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Wednesday, a day after an Israeli strike in Beirut killed Fuad Shukr, a top military commander from Lebanese armed group Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was due to convene special security discussions late on Sunday following threats of retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah. Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, said he was reviewing plans “that would exact a price in the case of attempts by Iran and its proxies to attack Israel.”Israel remains on high alert for a major retaliation by its adversaries after senior Hamas and Hezbollah officials were killed last week. The Washington Post reported that the Biden Administration informed U.S. lawmakers that Iran’s retaliatory strikes may happen as early as Monday or Tuesday. Earlier, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Nasser Kanaani, said Iran is not looking to escalate regional tensions but believes it needs to punish Israel to prevent further instability following the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week.Data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China’s crude oil imports in June fell 11% from a high base a year earlier, as independent refiners continued to cut production due to weak profit margins and as fuel demand remained tepid. June arrivals totaled 46.45 million metric tons or about 11.3 million bpd.
The Market’s Losses Were Limited by Concerns that Iran May Retaliate Against Israel and the U.S. -- The oil market traded mostly sideways on Tuesday after it retraced some of Monday’s sharp losses in overnight trading. The market breached its previous high of $74.46 and posted a high of $74.56. However, the market erased its gains and traded lower on a weak demand outlook following a global sell off on Monday. The crude market posted a low of $72.20 early in the morning and later retraced some of its losses and traded in a sideways trading pattern during the remainder of the session. The market’s losses were limited by concerns that Iran may retaliate against Israel and the U.S. following the assignation of a Hamas leader and an Israeli attack that killed a Hezbollah leader in Lebanon as well as a fall in Libya’s oil production at its Sharara oil field due to protests. The September WTI contract settled up 26 cents at $73.20 and the October Brent contract settled up 18 cents at $76.48. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 28 points at $2.2958 and the RB market settling down 74 points at $2.3262. The U.S. Energy Department said it is offering to buy up to 3.5 million barrels of oil to help replenish the SPR in January 2025.The EIA forecast in its Short Term Energy Outlook that global consumption of liquid fuels will increase by 1.1 million bpd in 2024 and 1.6 million bpd in 2025, down from a previous forecast of 1.8 million bpd. Total world oil demand in 2024 is forecast to increase to 102.94 million bpd and to 104.55 million bpd in 2025. Total world oil output in 2024 is forecast to increase by 570,000 bpd to 102.36 million bpd and by 2.08 million bpd to 104.44 million bpd in 2025. OPEC’s oil output is forecast to fall 220,000 bpd to 26.67 million bpd in 2024 but increase by 480,000 bpd to 27.15 million bpd in 2025. U.S. oil output is estimated to increase by 300,000 bpd to 13.23 million bpd in 2024 and by 460,000 bpd to 13.69 million bpd in 2025. Meanwhile, U.S. petroleum demand is expected to increase by 200,000 bpd to 20.45 million bpd in 2024 and by 180,000 bpd to 20.63 million bpd in 2025. Gasoline demand is forecast to remain unchanged in 2024 at 8.94 million bpd but fall by 50,000 bpd to 8.89 million bpd in 2025. Distillate demand is expected to fall by 60,000 bpd to 3.87 million bpd in 2024 and increase by 110,000 bpd to 3.98 million bpd in 2025. The EIA lowered its 2024 WTI price forecast to $80.21/barrel from a previous forecast of $82.03/barrel. It also lowered its 2025 forecast to $81.21/barrel, down from $83.88/barrel. It lowered its 2024 Brent price forecast to $84.44/barrel from $86.37/barrel and also lowered its 2025 forecast to $85.71/barrel from $88.38/barrel.Bloomberg is reporting that oil production at Libya’s biggest oil field was halted on Monday following production declines over the weekend. The 300,000 b/d Sharara oil field was producing 270,000 b/d on Saturday. Platts is reporting the shutdown of the field came after the son of eastern warlord Khalifa Haftar ordered the shutdown in response to a European arrest being issued. The Libyan government called the curtailment of production as “new attempts at political blackmail”. Libyan oil production in recent months had been averaging 1.2 million b/d.
Oil prices settle higher; signs of tighter supply end 3-day swoon (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday, bouncing off multi-month lows hit in the previous session, as investor attention turned to supply tightness and financial markets recovered from their recent slump. Brent crude futures rose by 18 cents, or 0.2% to settle at $76.48 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 26 cents, or 0.4%, to close at $73.20 per barrel. Both benchmarks broke a three-session declining streak.Iran's vow of retaliation against Israel and the U.S. following the killing of two militant leaders has raised concerns that a wider war is brewing in the Middle East, which could have a direct impact on supplies from the region.Lower production at Libya's 300,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Sharara oilfield is also adding to concerns of supply shortages. Libya's National Oil Corp said on Tuesday it would start to gradually decrease production at the field due to protests.Recent declines in crude oil and fuel inventories at major trading hubs are also supporting oil prices."Oil fundamentals are still suggesting an undersupplied oil market, with oil inventories still falling," Gasoline demand in the U.S. was likely at over 9 million barrels per day last week, feeding confidence in the economy.Global oil inventories decreased by around 400,000 bpd in the first half this year, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates published on Tuesday. It expects stockpiles to decline by around 800,000 bpd in the second half of the year.The agency lowered its average oil price forecasts for this year and next year, citing recent declines precipitated by economic concerns. It still expects higher prices in coming months. Brent spot prices will range between $85 and $90 per barrel by the end of the year, the EIA said.On Monday, Brent futures slumped to their lowest since early January and WTI futures had touched their lowest since February, as a global stock market rout deepened on growing concerns of a potential recession in the U.S., the world's largest petroleum consumer. Still, Goldman Sachs said its economists see recession risk as limited and believe oil prices will find support in coming weeks from strong demand in the West and India.
Oil Edges Lower on Surprise Build in US Crude, Gasoline Stocks --Oil prices slipped in early Asian trading on Wednesday following a brief rebound in the previous session after industry data showed an unexpected build in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, offsetting global oil supply concerns. Brent crude futures fell 21 cents, or 0.27%, to $76.27 a barrel by 0020 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 25 cents, or 0.34%, to $72.95 per barrel. US crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories rose last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday, Reuters reported. Benchmarks slipped accordingly. Both WTI and Brent had bounced off multi-month lows to settle higher in the previous session. The API figures showed crude stocks were up by 176,000 barrels in the week ended Aug. 2, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected crude stocks to fall by 700,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 3.313 million barrels against analysts' expectations for a 1 million bbl draw, while distillate stocks rose by 1.217 million barrels, a bigger build than anticipated. The US Energy Information Administration is due to release weekly inventory data at 10:30 a.m. (1430 GMT) on Wednesday. On Monday, Brent futures slumped to their lowest since early January and WTI futures had touched their lowest since February, as a global stock market rout deepened on growing concerns of a potential recession in the US, the world's largest petroleum consumer. However, both benchmarks broke a three-session declining streak on Tuesday as tensions in the Middle East stoked supply concerns, supporting prices. Iran's vow of retaliation against Israel and the US following the killing of two militant leaders has raised concerns that a wider war is brewing in the Middle East. "Any escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could see a greater risk of disruptions to supplies from the region," ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said. Lower production at Libya's 300,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Sharara oilfield is also adding to concerns of supply shortages. Global oil inventories decreased by around 400,000 bpd in the first half this year, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates published on Tuesday. It expects stockpiles to decline by around 800,000 bpd in the second half of the year.
Oil Prices Rise as Dollar Strengthens: September Crude Oil Reaches $75.23 per Barrel - Oil prices experienced a significant increase on Wednesday, with benchmark U.S. crude oil for September delivery rising by $2.03 to reach $75.23 per barrel. Similarly, Brent crude for October delivery rose by $1.85 to $78.33 per barrel. This surge in oil prices can be attributed to several factors, including the rising demand for oil and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. One of the primary drivers behind the increase in oil prices is the growing demand for oil. As economies around the world continue to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a notable uptick in economic activity. This has resulted in an increased need for oil to fuel industries and transportation. The rise in demand has put upward pressure on oil prices, as suppliers struggle to meet the growing needs of the market. Additionally, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar has also played a role in the rise of oil prices. The dollar rose to 146.84 Japanese yen from 145.04 yen, while the euro fell to $1.0922 from $1.0928. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies, which can lead to an increase in oil prices. This is because oil is traded in U.S. dollars, and a stronger dollar means that buyers need to exchange more of their currency to purchase the same amount of oil. In addition to oil, other commodities also experienced fluctuations in their prices. Wholesale gasoline for September delivery rose by 3 cents to $2.36 a gallon, while September heating oil rose by 6 cents to $2.36 a gallon. September natural gas saw a significant increase of 10 cents, reaching $2.11 per 1,000 cubic feet. On the other hand, precious metals saw mixed results. Gold for December delivery rose by a modest 80 cents to $2,432.40 per ounce. However, silver for September delivery fell by 28 cents to $26.94 per ounce, and September copper fell by 8 cents to $3.95 per pound. In conclusion, the recent increase in oil prices can be attributed to the rising demand for oil and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. As economies continue to recover and demand for oil grows, prices are likely to remain elevated. Additionally, fluctuations in other commodities, such as gasoline and natural gas, further contribute to the overall volatility of the market. It is important for investors and consumers to closely monitor these trends and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Oil settles 2% higher on falling US crude stockpiles, rebounds from multi-month lows (Reuters) -Oil prices gained more than 2% on Wednesday, bouncing back from multi-month lows, after data showed a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles, even as worries about weak oil demand in China persisted. Brent crude futures settled up $1.85, or 2.42%, at $78.33 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.03, or 2.77%, to $75.23. U.S. crude stocks fell for a sixth week in a row, dropping by 3.7 million barrels to 429.3 million barrels last week, government data showed, more than analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 700,000-barrel draw. "The story here really is that demand is stronger than people thought and overall supplies are tighter," "Crude supply is below average for this time of year." Industry data from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday had shown an unexpected build in crude and gasoline inventories. On Monday, Brent slumped to its lowest since early January and WTI touched its lowest since February, as a global stock market rout deepened on concerns about a potential recession in the U.S. after weak jobs data. Both oil benchmarks broke a three-session declining streak on Tuesday. "The recovery we have gotten from the large downturn on Monday shows it was a very short-lived temper tantrum and not a market crash," Lower production at Libya's 300,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Sharara oilfield is also adding to concerns about supply shortages. Libya's National Oil Corp declared force majeure in its Sharara oilfield from Aug. 7, the company said on Wednesday. NOC had said on Tuesday it would start to gradually decrease production at the field due to protests. Tensions in the Middle East continued to stoke supply concerns. The Middle East is bracing for a possible new wave of attacks by Iran and its allies following last week's killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, with concern rising that the conflict in Gaza is turning into a wider Middle East war. Iran-aligned Houthi militants on Wednesday targeted a container ship in the Red Sea and two U.S. destroyers in the adjacent Gulf of Aden. Attacks on vessels passing through the region have forced tankers to choose longer alternate routes. "Any escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could see a greater risk of disruptions to supplies from the region," Supporting the bearish demand view, Chinese trade data showed that July daily crude oil imports fell to the lowest level since September 2022. China is the world's largest crude importer.
Escalating Tensions in the Middle East Offset Demand Concerns That Had Pushed the Market to its Lowest Levels - The crude market on Thursday continued to retrace its recent losses as increasing concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East offset demand concerns that had pushed the market to its lowest levels since early this year at the start of the week. It also remained supported following the larger than expected draw in crude stocks of 3.7 million barrels reported by the EIA on Wednesday. The crude market traded sideways and posted a low of $74.60 early in the morning. However, the market bounced off that level and continued to recover from its sharp decline on Monday. It retraced more than 38% of its move from a high of $83.58 to a low of $71.67 as it rallied to a high of $76.52 ahead of the close. The market was further supported after U.S. jobs data eased demand concerns as initial unemployment benefit claims fell more than expected. The September WTI contract settled up 96 cents at $76.19 and the October Brent contract settled up 83 cents at $79.16. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 22 points at $2.3578 and the RB market settling up 4.19 cents at $2.3992. ExxonMobil said it continues to work on getting its 251,800 b/d Joliet refinery back up and running. Operators noted they have “safely restarted selected units at our refinery and are carefully ramping up production. We’re continuing to assess our equipment and working hard to resume full operations as safely and quickly as possible.” Last week, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued an emergency waiver to help alleviate fuel shortages in states where the supply of gasoline has been impacted by the shutdown of the Joliet refinery.Phillips 66 reported emissions from a coker flare at its 265,000 bpd Sweeny, Texas refinery.U.S. crude oil refiners are cutting third-quarter production plans as summer fuel demand falls and profit margins remain weak. Operators say they are budgeting more maintenance downtime into forecasts after running at an industry average 95% of capacity earlier this year. Marathon Petroleum said it would operate its 13 refineries at 90% of their combined crude intake capacity of 3 million bpd, down from 97% of capacity last quarter. Valero Energy plans to reduce its processing rate due to plant maintenance and soft margins. The midpoint of its processing target is about 2.86 million bpd, down from 3 million bpd last quarter. Phillips 66 is planning to run its plants in the low-90% of capacity range. HF Sinclair expects planned plant overhauls will reduce its combined run rate by about 7.8% at the midpoint of a range of between 570,000 bpd and 600,000 bpd. Its network ran at a rate of 635,000 bpd last quarter.The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said that it had received a report of an incident 45 nautical miles south of Yemen’s Mokha.A fall in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week relieved markets that had been in a near panic about prospects for a recession and how aggressive the Federal Reserve would have to be in easing policy. The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 in the week ending August 3rd, the largest drop in about 11 months.
Oil settles up for third straight day on US job data and Mideast tensions - (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Thursday for the third consecutive session, after U.S. jobs data eased demand concerns and war in the Middle East helped prices recover from an eight-month low on Monday. Brent crude futures settled up 83 cents or 1.06% to $79.16 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up 96 cents, or 1.28%, to $76.19. Prices were buoyed after data showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, suggesting fears the labour market is unravelling were overblown. "The latest U.S. data on jobless claims indicates still a growing U.S. economy, reducing some of the oil demand concerns," Investors were also digesting a 3.7 million barrel drop in U.S. crude inventories last week, reported by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday, a drop which far exceeded analysts' expectations and marked a sixth straight weekly decline to six-month lows. Elsewhere, the killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah last week had raised the possibility of retaliatory strikes by Iran against Israel, stoking concerns over oil supply from the world's largest producing region. "It will spike the price of crude oil if there is an Iranian retaliation on a large scale and I think that is what everyone is most worried about,” Meanwhile, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said on Thursday it had received a report of an incident 45 nautical miles south of Yemen's Mokha. Iran-aligned Houthi militants have launched attacks on international shipping near Yemen since last November in solidarity with Palestinians in the war between Israel and Hamas. Israeli forces stepped up airstrikes across the Gaza Strip on Thursday, killing at least 40 people, Palestinian medics said, in further battle with Hamas-led militants as Israel braced for potential wider war in the region. Also lending some support, Libya's National Oil Corp. declared force majeure at its Sharara oilfield from Tuesday, a statement said, adding that the company had gradually reduced the field's production because of protests. Analysts at Citi said there was a possibility of a bounce in prices to the low-to-mid $80s for Brent. "Upside risks in the market remain, from still-tight balances through August, heightened geopolitical risks across North Africa and the Middle East, the possibility of weather-related disruptions through hurricane season, and light managed money positioning," Citi said.
Oil prices settle higher to snap four-week losing streak -- Oil prices settled higher Friday, snapping a four-week losing streak as easing fears of a global economic slowdown helped improve sentiment on demand. At 14:30 ET (18:30 GMT), Brent oil futures rose 0.6% to $79.66 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 0.9% to $76.84 a barrel. The number of oil rigs rose by 3 to 485 from a week ago, Baker Hughes reported Friday.The uptick in rig counts pointing to increased drilling activity comes even as the US Department of Energy cut its forecast on domestic crude oil production to 300,000 barrels for 2024 from a prior estimate of 320,000 bpd this year.Better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims data on Thursday boosted sentiment, raising hope the world's largest economy could avoid a recession.Data earlier Friday showed that Chinese consumer price indexinflation grew more than expected in July, while a decline in producer price index inflation was slightly less than expected.The data highlighted some improving trends in the world’s biggest oil importer, especially after Beijing enacted a slew of interest rate cuts through July.But inflation still remained largely languid, with a sustained decline in factory prices suggesting that a deflationary trend was still in play.China’s oil imports also shrank in July, data showed earlier this week. Fears of slowing demand in the country have been a major pain point for oil markets.Initial gains in crude were fueled largely by bargain buying, after a rout on Monday put prices at seven-month lows.But signs of sustained draws in U.S. inventories spurred hopes that demand in the country remained underpinned by the travel-heavy summer season, even as the pace of draws appeared to be slowing.Traders were also seen attaching a greater risk premium to oil prices, after Ukraine mounted one of its biggest attacks on Russia since the war began in early-2022.Sustained tensions in the Middle East, amid fears of retaliation by Iran and Hamas against Israel, also kept some risk elements in oil.The killing last week of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah had raised the possibility of retaliatory strikes by Iran against Israel, stoking concerns over oil supply from the world's largest producing region.Yet, despite this week's gains, global oil demand growth needs to accelerate in coming months or the market will struggle to absorb an increase in oil supply that OPEC+ is planning to make from October.
Oil posts 3% weekly gains on positive economic data, rate cut hopes (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Friday and notched over 3.5% in weekly gains as positive economic data and signals from Fed policymakers that they could cut interest rates as early as September eased demand concerns, while fears of a widening Middle East conflict continue to raise supply risks. Brent crude futures settled 50 cents up, or 0.6%, at $79.66 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 65 cents, or 0.9%, to $76.84. both benchmarks.Brent gained more than 3.5% in the week, while WTI rose more than 4%."Crude is in a recovery mode ... as geopolitical tensions still seem to be a positive factor, and on-again off-again recession fears have calmed a bit, at least for now," A trio of Federal Reserve policymakers indicated on Thursday that they were more confident that inflation is cooling enough to cut rates. A bigger-than-expected fall in U.S. jobless claims data also helped to underpin the recovery.The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, suggesting that fears the labor market is unraveling were overblown and that the gradual softening in the labor market remains intact.Also offering support was China's consumer price index, which rose last month at a slightly faster than expected rate, statistics bureau data showed."Positive momentum was further reinforced by Chinese inflation numbers that exceeded expectations. In this context, it wouldn't be surprising to see the price per barrel testing the $80 level," "The price per barrel has benefited from rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have fuelled fears of a potential conflict that could disrupt the region's output and reduce the global supply of crude," Veyret added.Israeli forces stepped up airstrikes across the Gaza Strip on Thursday, killing at least 40 people, Palestinian medics said, in further battles with Hamas-led militants.The killing last week of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah had raised the possibility of retaliatory strikes by Iran against Israel, stoking concerns over oil supply from the world's largest producing region.Iran-aligned Houthi militants have also continued attacks on international shipping near Yemen in solidarity with Palestinians in the war between Israel and Hamas.Leaders of the United States, Egypt and Qatar on Thursday called on Israel and Hamas to meet for negotiations on Aug. 15 in order to finalize a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal.The Russia-Ukraine conflict also continued as Moscow moved extra tanks, artillery and rocket systems to its southern Kursk region on Friday as it battled for the fourth straight day to end a shock incursion by Ukrainian forces.Meanwhile, the dollar index , which measures the currency against six others, was down 0.136% at 103.14 following three days of gains. A weaker greenback helps demand as oil becomes cheaper for foreign buyers.Lending further support to prices, Libya's National Oil Corp declared force majeure at its Sharara oilfield from Wednesday, adding that it had gradually reduced the field's output because of protests.However, U.S. oil rigs, an indicator of future production, rose by three to 485 this week.Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to August 6, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said.
Iran Expected to Retaliate Against Israel by Tomorrow -- In its latest Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA), which was released on August 5, Dryad Global warned that, “Iran is expected to retaliate against Israel within the next 48 hours, assuming no new developments”. “The last two weeks have seen an unprecedented string of escalating events, with the potential to spark a major regional conflict,” Dryad said in the advisory. “The growing situation is expected to spark retaliatory attacks on Israeli territory and assets, affecting commercial shipping,” Dryad added. “Increased Houthi airstrikes on merchant ships in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea, as well as IRGCN seizures of merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, are expected,” it continued, noting that severe GPS jamming off the coast of Israel is also anticipated. A potential war between Iran and Israel could disrupt maritime shipping, increasing costs and delays, particularly on key oil and gas transportation routes, the MSTA stated. “The warring parties may target vessels and conduct cyberattacks, disrupting navigation systems and communication networks,” the MSTA noted. “Conflict could also disrupt port operations, limiting their ability to handle cargo and resulting in delays and increased costs. Iran’s retaliation against Israel could have long-term consequences for the global economy, as well as increased Middle Eastern geopolitical instability,” it added. A war between Iran and Israel would have a significant impact on countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, according to the MSTA, which stated that there is the potential of disruption of operations within the Strait of Hormuz along with the Northern Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and the far Eastern Mediterranean Sea. “In line with this heightened risk, Dryad Global advises against all transit of Israeli-linked vessels within the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Oman, and the Persian Gulf until further notice,” the MSTA said. “Perceived affiliation with Israel may include past or partial ownership or management of a vessel, past or expected transit via Israeli ports. Vessels linked with NATO countries are also assessed to be at a heightened risk when transiting these waters until further notice,” it added. In a recent exclusive interview, Caleb Jasso, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Research (IER), told Rigzone that “widespread regional conflict in the Middle East is certainly more likely than it was a few years ago”. “The recent retaliatory Israeli strikes in Beirut and Tehran, and the promise of a response from Iran, have opened the door to the possibility of an expanded regional conflict,” he added. “With the Israel-Hamas War now entering its tenth month, continued exchanges between both Israel and Hezbollah, and now Israel and Iran, puts the region on a precarious path toward significant conflict,” he warned. If widespread regional conflict happens, and directly involves Iran and Israel combating each other, the impact on oil prices could be severe, especially compared to how nominally oil prices have been impacted by the Israel-Hamas War when compared to historical regional conflicts, Jasso told Rigzone. “One of the more impactful actions on oil prices has been the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, which began as a result of the Houthis’ support for Hamas and has caused considerable damage to the flow of trade through the Suez Canal,” he said. “If a broader conflict ensues, and the Houthis not only continue their attacks but are emboldened further, and Iran decides to harass shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, then oil prices, especially in East Asia, could be negatively affected,” he added.
Moscow Rushes Air Defenses To Iran In Payback For America Arming Ukraine - Russia has significantly stepped up its military cooperation with Iran amid the Islamic Republic's showdown with Israel. Many days have passed since Israel's assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, with the region still on edge awaiting a likely major Iranian response.The NY Times and others confirmed this week that Russia has begun delivering radars and air defense equipment, possibly including S-400 anti-air missile components, to the Iranians. This can be seen as Moscow's 'payback' for America arming Ukraine. Now, Russia is arming America's (and Israel's) chief enemy in the Middle East.
Report: Putin Asks Iran To Avoid Civilian Casualties in Reprisal Attack on Israel - Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to avoid civilian casualties in Iran’s expected reprisal attack on Israel for the killing of Hamas’s political chief in Tehran,Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing two unnamed Iranian sources.The sources said the message was delivered by Sergey Shoigu, head of the Russian Security Council and former defense minister. Shoigu was in Tehran on Monday and met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.The New York Times reported that Iran had requested air defenses from Russia in the meeting as it prepares for a potential war with Israel and the US and that Moscow had already begun delivering radars and air defense equipment.Russia and Iran have increased military ties in recent years as a result of both countries facing heavy US sanctions, but so far, neither country has confirmed that Russia is delivering new equipment.Brig. Gen. Alireza Elhami, the deputy commander of Iran’s air defense forces, said that the Iranian military was in the process of upgrading its air defense systems but added that Tehran is not relying on any foreign country.“We are 100% self-sufficient and we are not dependent on foreign equipment, and the security of our air borders is not dependent on foreign countries,” Elhami said, according to Iran’s Mehr news agency.
Israel Considering 'Preemptive Strike' Against Iran - Israel is considering launching a “preemptive strike” on Iran as it’s awaiting a reprisal attack for the assassination of Hamas’s political chief in Iran.According to Israeli media reports, Israel could launch an attack on Iran if it finds an Iranian strike is imminent. The idea was discussed on Sunday night in a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his top military and intelligence officials.Iranian officials have made clear they will respond to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil, and any Israeli preemptive strike would just escalate the situation even more.US and Israeli officials believe an Iranian attack could happen any day, and it’s expected that Hezbollah will be involved in the operation as the Lebanese group vowed a response to an Israeli strike that killed one of its top commanders in Beirut. Iran’s allies in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen could also join the attack on Israel.The US has deployed additional warships and warplanes to the Middle Eastfor the purpose of “defending Israel,” making US military assets potential targets in a reprisal attack.
Nasrallah Vows 'Strong' Response to Israeli Killing of Hezbollah Commander Is Coming - Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah vowed in a televised speech on Tuesday that the Lebanese group would have a “strong” response to the Israeli killing of a high-level Hezbollah commander. Nasrallah delivered the speech during a ceremony that marked one week after the Hezbollah commander, Fuah Shukr, was killed by an Israeli airstrike in the Beirut neighborhood of Dahieh, along with two women and two children.Moments before Nasrallah began his speech, Israeli jets broke the sound barrier over Beirut, letting out sonic booms over the city, which has a population of about 2.4 million. Nasrallah denounced the move as a “petty” provocation.“We have not sought escalations until now, we have been fighting in support of Gaza but keeping in mind the Lebanese national interest,” Nasrallah said. “But an assassination of a top leader in the Dahieh must be treated differently … Our response is coming, God willing, from us and the axis of resistance — and it will be strong.”The “axis of resistance” refers to Hezbollah and Iran’s allies in the region, including Shia militias based in Iraq and the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, who govern the most populous areas of Yemen.Iran is preparing to respond to the Israeli killing of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. The US and Israel are expecting Iran’s reprisal to be a major attack that will be coordinated with Hezbollah and its other allies.The US has vowed to defend Israel from any attack, which Nasrallah mentioned in his speech. “When Iran and Hezbollah spoke of retaliating against Israel for its atrocities, the US affirmed its commitment to defend the Zionist entity,” Nasrallah said, “The occupation relies on the United States and Western countries for protection as it is unable to defend itself.”
Hezbollah-Aligned Newspaper Urges Rockets On Tel Aviv - Israel has informed Washington that if Hezbollah harms more civilians in a retaliation campaign for the assassination of its top military commander Fuad Shukr last week, Israel's military will have no choice but to launch a disproportionate response."In the internal discussions with the U.S., Israel stressed that the cost of another Hezbollah mishap would be heavy and that Hezbollah would pay a disproportionate price if it harmed civilians as part of its retaliation," a senior Israeli official told Axios.The report continues, "Two Israeli officials said that in recent days Israel told the U.S. via several military channels that it is concerned Hezbollah could hit civilian population centers if it tries to target military bases in central Israel."Last month 12 children were killed in the occupied Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams during a Hezbollah rocket attack. Israeli officials believe the rocket was intended to hit a nearby IDF military base, while Hezbollah leadership has claimed an errant Israeli anti-air missile struck the soccer field where civilians died.Meanwhile, Hezbollah has since the killing of Shukr in Beirut declared that its strikes will hit targets deeper inside Israel.On Tuesday, the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar - widely seen as sympathetic to Hezbollah - wrote that Hezbollah could decide to hit Tel Aviv, which would mark a new major escalation, likely leading to all-out war."If Hezbollah can choose targets, it is possible that it will target Tel Aviv and civilians might be harmed on the margins. The effective thing will be to hit a significant center of the organization that made the decision about the assassination and took part in it," the Al-Akhbar op-ed said. This too has been seen as a severe warning conveyed indirectly via Lebanese media.
Delta suspends August flights to Tel Aviv from JFK --Delta will suspend all flights from New York City to Tel Aviv for the remainder of August, the airline announced Monday, amid growing fears of a regional conflict between Israel and Iran.The announcement extends a previous suspension that began last week. Sales of all flights between New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport and Tel Aviv this month have halted, the airline said.Any customers with tickets on affected flights will be issued a travel waiver. Flights on partner airlines Air France and EL AL Israel Airlines are still available, Delta said. “Delta is continuously monitoring the evolving security environment and assessing our operations based on security guidance and intelligence reports and will communicate any updates as needed,” the company said in a statement. United Airlines similarly paused flights to Tel Aviv “until further notice” last week, citing “security reasons.”The cancellations come after Israel killed two top Hamas leaders in strikes on Tehran and Beirut, ratcheting up concerns that Israel could escalate to all-out war in Lebanon, where Hezbollah militants are located. The Iranian government has also promised retaliation for the strikes, leading the U.S. military to deploy significant assets in the region.
Houthi Leader Vows Yemen Will Join 'Axis of Resistance' in Attack on Israel -On Thursday, Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi vowed the Yemeni group will coordinate with the “Axis of Resistance” in an attack on Israel in response to Israeli escalations in the region.The axis includes Iran, Hezbollah, Shia militias that operate in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis, who are officially known as Ansar Allah. Iran is vowing revenge for the Israeli killing of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and Hezbollah is warning it will escalate in response to the Israeli airstrike that killed one of its top military commanders in Beirut.Al-Houthi said Ansar Allah would respond to the July 20 Israeli bombing of Yemen’s Red Sea port of Hodeidah, which killed six people and caused about $20 million in damage. Israel launched the strikes after a Houthi drone hit Tel Aviv and killed one person.“The inevitable response to the Israeli aggression that targeted the fuel tanks in Hodeidah port is a must, and it is coming, God willing,” al-Houthi said, according to Al Mayadeen. Al-Houthi said the delay in the response from the axis to the Israeli escalations was a tactical decision. “The decision to respond is a collective decision across the entire axis, and within each front independently,” he said.The Houthi leader said there was a diplomatic push by the US, Europe, and some Arab countries to contain the response, but said Iran was undeterred, saying, “the matter touches upon the honor of the Islamic Republic by the killing of its guest in its capital.”Al-Houthi also touted recent Houthi attacks on US assets in the region, including the downing of a US MQ-9 Reaper drone. The US continues to bomb Yemen and intercept Houthi missiles and drones on a near-daily basis.The latest US strikes on Yemen targeted the Hodeidah province on Thursday. US Central Command claimed on Wednesday that it launched strikes in Yemen that destroyed two Houthi drones, a ground control station, and three anti-ship cruise missiles. The US bombing campaign has done nothing to stop Houthi attacks on shipping in the region and has only escalated the situation.The US has acknowledged that the Houthis would stop their attacks if there were a ceasefire in Gaza. But the Biden administration has refused to put real pressure on Israel to agree to a ceasefire and continues to provide military aid and political support, emboldening Israeli escalations in the region.The US-backed Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis from 2015-2022 involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became a more capable fighting force during that time.
Israel Sends Truck Full of Dead Palestinians Into Gaza - On Monday, over 80 bodies of unidentified Palestinians were buried in a mass grave in Khan Younis after they were sent into Gaza on a truck by Israel.Yamen Abu Suleiman, the director of the Palestinian Civil Emergency Service in Khan Younis, told Reuters that it was unclear if the dead Palestinians were exhumed by Israeli forces from graveyards in Gaza or if they were tortured and killed in Israeli detention facilities.“The occupation provided us with no information about the names, or ages, or anything. This is a war crime, a crime against humanity,” Abu Suleiman said.Israeli forces have dug up cemeteries across Gaza, claiming the purpose was to look for the remains of Israeli hostages. Gaza’s Government Media Office has said Israel has taken 2,000 bodies out of Gaza.The Israeli human rights organization B’Tselem published a report on Monday that said 60 Palestinians have died in Israeli detention facilities since October 7. The report said the facilities have become torture camps under the direction of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir.Also on Monday, Israeli airstrikes continued to pound the Gaza Strip. Gaza’s Health Ministry said at least 40 Palestinians were killed, bringing the death toll since October 7 up to 39,623, a total that doesn’t include thousands of Palestinians who are missing under the rubble and presumed dead.
Netanyahu Appoints New Spokesman Who Wants Ethnic Cleansing of Gaza - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has appointed a new spokesman who is a proponent of establishing Jewish settlements in Gaza and expelling Palestinians from the territory, Haaretz has reported.Omer Dostri, who is a regular guest on Israel’s Channel 14, was appointed to the new role on Sunday. He is aligned with the Israeli right and has a history of calling for policies that would result in the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from Gaza.“There is no victory over Hamas without three basic conditions: military occupation of the entire Gaza Strip, military and civilian control of the area, and encouragement of voluntary migration of Gazans out of the strip,” Dostri said in January.While framing the idea of expelling Palestinians as “voluntary migration,” the Israeli military campaign is making Gaza uninhabitable and could give Palestinians no choice but to leave if they have the option. Dostri has suggested Egypt should be offered economic or military aid to agree to the transfer of “Gaza refugees to Sinai, even if only temporarily.”Dostri has also called for Israel to establish settlements in the areas of Gaza that it currently occupies. “Israel must order the rapid establishment of Israeli settlements in many of the areas it occupies, especially those close to the current border,” Dostri wrote in Makor Rishon.The Israeli military controls about 26% of Gaza’s territory, including a “buffer zone” that was established along the entire Israel-Gaza border. In these areas, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has demolished most structures and has established some military bases. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed he does not plan on establishing settlements in Gaza, but members of his coalition government and Likud party openly support the idea. Appointing a spokesman who favors settlements in Gaza also signals that the prime minister is aligned with that viewpoint.
Smotrich: It May Be 'Moral and Justified' for Israel To Starve 2 Million Palestinians to Death in Gaza - Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said Monday that it might be “moral and justified” for Israel to starve to death two million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip but said it couldn’t due to international pressure.“We are bringing in aid because there is no choice,” Smotrich said at a conference hosted by Israel Hayom, according to The Times of Israel. “We can’t, in the current global reality, manage a war. Nobody will let us cause 2 million civilians to die of hunger even though it might be justified and moral until our hostages are returned.”Smotrich continued, “Humanitarianism in exchange for humanitarianism is morally justified — but what can we do? We live today in a certain reality, we need international legitimacy for this war.”Smotrich is often portrayed as a fringe extremist in Israeli politics, but he has significant power as the finance minister and also holds a position in the Defense Ministry that puts him in charge of West Bank settlements. His threats to quit the government if a hostage deal is reached with Hamas is one reason why the onslaught in Gaza has continued.Genocidal rhetoric from Israeli officials has been used as evidence in South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). When Israel first imposed a full siege on Gaza following October 7, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the Israeli military was fighting “human animals.”While Israel has allowed some aid to enter Gaza, it has only been a trickle, and the majority of Palestinians are facing severe food shortages. Diseases are also rapidly spreading as the civilian infrastructure has been shattered by the Israeli bombardment.
Israel Airstrike Kills Hamas Leader in South Lebanon Port City of Sidon - Israel carried out an airstrike against a car in the southern Lebanese port city of Sidon on Friday evening, killing Hamas leader Samer Mahmoud al-Haj. A bodyguard, who has not been identified, was critically wounded.Haj worked in a nearby Palestinian refugee camp called Ayn al-Hilweh. The Israeli military and Shin Bet issued a joint statement claiming he was responsible for directing attacks against Israel and was “training terrorists” at the refugee camp.Sidon is located deep in southern Lebanon, almost 38 miles over the border. Israel has been carrying out strikes against Sidon this year, although most have been against Hezbollah, not Hamas.Israeli strikes against Hamas targets inside Lebanese territory are relatively rare, but often target high profile Hamas members, as in Januarywhen Saleh al-Arouri was killed. Arouri had been in charge of the critical hostage negotiations with Israel throughout the Gaza War. He was struck down in an attack in Beirut, the Lebanese capital city.Last week, Israel killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in an attack in the Iranian capital of Tehran. The Israelis have emphasized they will target Hamas members anywhere in the world they choose.
Israel Attacks Airbase In Central Syria Known To House Russian Troops -Following late night explosions being reported in the central Syrian region of Homs, state media SANA has subsequently confirmed that an Israeli airstrike has wounded at least four soldiers and caused "material losses" at the Shayrat Airbase.The Israeli attack came from the direction of northern Lebanon. It has become common for Israeli jets to use undefended Lebanese airspace from which to attack targets inside Syria. Images showing a series of large explosions have circulated on social media.Shayrat Airbase has long been well-known also as a base of Russian troop operations over several years. It remains unknown if Russians were present at the base when it was struck late Thursday night. Some Israeli sources have said ammo storage depots were hit, or else 'Iranian assets' were targeted - as is the usual refrain after such operations.
Ukraine Orders Evacuations From Donetsk Towns as Russian Forces Advance - On Sunday, Ukrainian officials ordered evacuations from some areas of the eastern Donetsk Oblast as Russian forces are making gains.Vadym Filashkin, the Ukrainian governor of Donetsk, said he ordered the mandatory evacuation of children and their parents from several villages. “The enemy is bombing the towns and villages of these communities every day, so it was decided to evacuate children with their parents or other legal representatives,” he said, according to AFP.Earlier in the day, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the capture of the Donetsk village of Novoselovka Pervaya as part of a push toward the city of Pokrovsk, which is used as a major supply hub for Ukrainian forces in the region.The Russian Defense Ministry claimed on Sunday that Ukraine lost 365 soldiers in fighting around Novoselovka Pervaya in the previous 24-hour period.As the fighting rages in Donetsk, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyconfirmed Ukraine had received its first shipment of US-made F-16 fighter jets. But the planes and other military aid from NATO are not expected to turn the tide on the battlefield.Zelensky recently began floating the idea of holding peace talks with Russia, marking a shift in his position as he previously ruled out the idea altogether. But there’s been no sign that the US would support negotiations as any deal that cedes territory to Russia would hurt the election chances of Vice President Kamala Harris, who’s expected to be the Democratic nominee after President Biden dropped out of the race.
Ukraine Launches Incursion Into Russia's Kursk Oblast -Russia said Wednesday that its forces were fighting off a Ukrainian ground incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, an attack President Vladimir Putin called a “large-scale provocation.”So far, Ukrainian officials have been quiet about the cross-border attack, which was launched from Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast.According to RT, the Russian military estimates up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers with dozens of armored vehicles entered Kursk. Drone attacks were also reported, and Kursk Acting Governor Alexey Smirnov said one hit an ambulance, killing two paramedics.In a meeting with his top officials, Putin said Ukrainian forces attacking Kursk were “firing indiscriminately from different types of weapons, including rockets, at civilian buildings, residential houses, ambulances.” The Russian Defense Ministry said Wednesday that the fighting in Kursk was ongoing and said it thwarted a breakthrough. The ministry said five residents of Kursk had been killed in the Ukrainian attack and claimed that it inflicted 260 casualties on the invading Ukrainian force.Ukraine has supported cross-border raids into Russia launched by militias, including the neo-Nazi Russian Volunteer Corps, but the fighting in Kursk appears to be its biggest ground attack into Russian territory of the war.Meanwhile, fighting continues across the frontlines, and Russian forces continue to make gains in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast. The Kursk attack could be an attempt to stretch Russia’s lines, but Ukraine has also been struggling with manpower issues and could end up losing more territory as a result.
German army declares itself rooted in the “traditions” of Hitler’s Wehrmacht - Last month, the German army published a document asserting that it bases itself on the tradition of the Wehrmacht, the army of the Nazi regime that massacred and starved tens of millions of civilians during World War II. Almost unnoticed by the public, on July 12 the Bundeswehr (Armed Forces) issued “Supplementary information on the guidelines for understanding and maintaining traditions in the Bundeswehr.” The document was signed by Lieutenant General Kai Rohrschneider, head of the Department for Operational Readiness and Support of the Armed Forces in the Defence Ministry. It explicitly names top officers of the Nazi Wehrmacht as “tradition-forming” and “identity-creating” for the Bundeswehr, today’s German army. This not only exposes the character of the political forces the major NATO powers are setting into motion as they wage war on Russia in Ukraine. It also exposes the arguments of German officials now charged with complicity in genocide over their support for the Israeli war on Gaza. Their bald denials that the German government could have any genocidal intent have no credibility when the government simultaneously rehabilitates the Wehrmacht, the army that played a central role in the Holocaust. Indeed, the “Supplementary Notes” is unabashed in its glorification of the political criminals in the officer corps of the Nazi regime. Despite the unspeakable crimes top Nazi officers committed during the Second World War, it hails them as “role models” and “heroes,” as the German ruling class once again prepares to wage war against Russia. Its purpose in so doing, the text states, is to “name examples that create tradition, strengthen identification and, as a result, increase the operational value of units and formations of the respective organisational area.” It continues: The turning point triggered by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, which violates international law, has increased the importance of the war readiness of the armed forces, which is largely derived from a high operational value and high combat effectiveness, also for the cultivation of traditions. This turns reality on its head. In reality, it was the NATO powers who deliberately provoked Putin’s reactionary invasion of Ukraine in order to massively rearm Germany and realise long-held war plans. German imperialism, which had already attempted to annex Ukraine and defeat Russia militarily during the First and Second World Wars, is playing a leading role in the war offensive against Russia. The “Supplementary Notes” makes explicit that the German military believes the promotion of Nazi officers is essential to waging war on Russia today. That is, the promotion of the crimes of German imperialism in the 20th century flows from the crimes it is committing in the 21st. Indeed, the notes declare that “the cultivation of traditions should, among other things, strengthen operational readiness and the will to fight when the mission requires.” In one remarkable passage, the document explicitly argues that the need for military effectiveness requires valuing military skill over character and ability to function in society. It states that “greater attention must also be paid to military excellence (ability and skill) over other examples of tradition-building such as classic soldierly virtues (character) or achievements for the integration of the armed forces into society.” What flows from this? If the promotion in the army of Nazi officers who committed genocide and war crimes, including the mass murder of civilians, encourages similarly criminal and antisocial behavior, according to this argument, this is to be accepted as a necessary part of building a ruthless, victorious army.
Bangladeshi Prime Minister flees to India amid mass uprising -- Bangladesh’s longtime prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, fled the country Monday amid a mass popular uprising against her increasingly brutal authoritarian rule. Army chief General Waker-uz-Zaman announced Hasina had resigned in a televised statement to the nation, hours after she and her sister had been spotted with army escorts at Dhaka international airport. It was subsequently learned that Hasina, who headed Bangladesh’s government for the past 15 years, had flown to India, which has enjoyed close ties to her regime. Declaring the country of 170 million people was “going through a revolutionary period,” General Waker-uz-Zaman said that the military would oversee a peaceful transition to a new government and the restoration of order. He claimed to have already consulted with opposition leaders and “civil society” groups. The general appealed to the population to leave the streets and ordered that schools, colleges, factories, and offices reopen Tuesday morning upon the lifting of a curfew. Trying to defuse the mass anger, Waker-Uz-Zaman postured as a friend of the people. “I promise you all,” he avowed, “we will bring justice to all the murders… Have faith in the army of the country. Please don't go back to the path of violence and please return to non-violent and peaceful ways.” As the general was speaking, jubilant crowds were surging through the streets of the national capital, Dhaka. The prime minister’s residence and several government buildings were stormed and sacked. The New York Times cited a garment worker Monsur Ali, who said he was among the thousands of people who entered Hasina’s residence. “We went there out of anger. Nothing is left there.” Everything suggests that the army top brass forced Hasina from power, after concluding that her attempt to cling to office through bloody repression was dangerously destabilizing Bangladeshi capitalism. The working class has yet to intervene in the crisis as an independent political force. But in ever greater numbers working people have joined the protest movement that university students initiated at the beginning of last month over a regressive government job allocation system. They have done so to oppose the state violence and to voice their anger at mass unemployment, grinding poverty and ever-deepening social inequality. The military and the ruling class clearly fear the continued disruption of the country’s massive garment industry will reduce profits, exacerbate the country’s economic crisis and fuel worker unrest.
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