global glass onion: week ending Aug 3

Fed holds interest rates but keeps door open to a cut in coming months --Federal Reserve officials said Wednesday that while there are signs the economy is slowing, the Fed was not yet ready to cut its key interest rate.Yet even as it held rates at their current level of about 5.5%, the Federal Open Market Committee's latest statement included changes in language that acknowledged growing signs of economic weakness that suggest a greater willingness to consider lowering borrowing costs.Notably, the FOMC observed some deterioration in labor-market conditions.“Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low,” it said in the statement Wednesday.At 4.1%, the unemployment rate is at its highest level since February 2018, though still below levels that would suggest a recession.On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that while layoff activity remained subdued in June, the hiring rate in the economy has slowed to a level not seen since 2014. The percentage of unemployed workers who have gone without roles for 27 weeks or more has recently begun to surge, with about 1.5 million total workers now in that category.Yet the FOMC said Wednesday it would not budge “until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent,” a line Fed officials have repeated previously. In a note to clients after the statement was released, Omair Sharif, founder and president of the Inflation Insights research group, said the Fed had taken a "baby step" toward a cut that traders have bet will come in September."I expect that further good news on the inflation front in July should set up the Chair to deliver a more meaningful signal that a rate cut in September is very likely," Sharif wrote. Likewise, Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management financial group, said the statement "cracks the door open to the September cut that everyone is expecting." In remarks following the statement's release Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged a rate cut "could be on the table for September" but said monetary policymakers "just need to see more good data." In recent testimony to Congress, Powell a cknowledged that central bank officials had started the clock on lowering rates, saying acting “too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”The Federal Reserve helps set the interest rates that determine how much it costs consumers and businesses to borrow money for products and services.For the past two years, it has sought to fight inflation by keeping interest rates elevated,in essence fighting fire with fire: By making borrowing more expensive, it has cooled demand in the economy and thus slowed the rate at which prices have increased.Now, the Fed is signaling that the higher rates have done their job on the inflation front — and that keeping them aflame could lead to unnecessary damage to the rest of the economy.Wall Street traders have signaled for weeks that a September rate cut is a virtual certainty, according to data from the financial services company CME Group.But influential former Fed officials have begun calling for a more rapid timeline. Bill Dudley, a former New York Federal Reserve president, wrote this month that a rate cut should occur before September. In a Bloomberg News op-ed, Dudley said he had "changed his mind," with unemployment creeping higher and with all but the wealthiest households having depleted their immediate post-pandemic financial cushions."Although it might already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates, dawdling now unnecessarily increases the risk," Dudley wrote.This week, Alan Blinder, a Fed vice chair in the Clinton administration, said in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that the time to cut is now."Why wait?" Blinder asked, declaring the two-year fight against pandemic-induced inflation over as "the economy seems to be simmering down."Cutting rates would only be a matter of heading off a negative economic outcome: Companies have signaled that there's upside, too.Sectors whose success is especially sensitive to interest rates and consumer credit, like the housing and automotive markets, have shown particular weakness — including signals from companies in those industries that they expect sales to ramp up again once interest rates begin to fall.

FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate -- Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated. In recent months, there has been some further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent;. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Elizabeth Warren hammers Jerome Powell over jobs report: 'Cut rates now' --Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) slammed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for holding interest rates steady earlier this week after Friday’s jobs report came in weaker than expected. “Fed Chair Powell made a serious mistake not cutting interest rates,” Warren said in a post on social platform X. “He’s been warned over and over again that waiting too long risks driving the economy into a ditch.”“The jobs data is flashing red,” she added. “Powell needs to cancel his summer vacation and cut rates now — not wait 6 weeks.” The central bank opted Wednesday to maintain rates at a range of 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent. In a press conference following the announcement, Powell noted that the Fed could begin cutting rates “as soon as” September if inflation and the labor market continue to cool. However, the July jobs report hinted at a quicker slowdown than previously anticipated. The U.S. added 114,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 percent, according to Labor Department figures. The Fed has held rates at a two-decade high since last July. It raised rates throughout 2022 and 2023 in an effort to tamp down skyrocketing inflation, which peaked at a 40-year high of 9.1 percent in June 2022. Inflation has since fallen to 3 percent. However, several hotter-than-expected inflation readings in the first quarter of 2024 made the Fed wary of cutting rates earlier this year. While the second quarter showed more signs of cooling, the Fed’s rate-setting panel noted Wednesday that it needed to gain “greater confidence” that inflation is moving sustainably down to its target of 2 percent before starting to cut rates. Warren has fierecly criticized Powell throughout his stint leading the central bank. The senatorhas said Powell “failed” at both supervising the financial sector and supporting the economy through the Fed’s management of interest rates.

Quarterly Refunding: Treasury To Hold Bond, Note Sales Steady For "Several Quarters", Will "Modestly Increase" Bill Offering Size --Earlier this week, in our Quarterly Refunding preview we said that "the August refunding package will be identical to the one in May, with $125bn in gross issuance across 3y, 10y and 30y auctions. In addition, expect unchanged 5y TIPS new issue and 30y TIPS reopening (at $23bn and $8bn, respectively), and a $1bn increase to the 10y TIPS reopening (to $17bn) to commensurate with the increase in the 10y TIPS new issue auctioned this month." Well, that's precisely what the Treasury revealed at 8:30am this morning, when it published its latest Quarterly Refunding Announcement(the funding needs were already reported on Monday when the Treasury revealed a debt issuance schedule in line with expectations) in which it reported that, as expected, the quarterly refunding would be $125 billion, with issuance raising $14 billion in new cash from private investors, as follows:

$58 billion in 3-year notes
$42 billion in 10-year notes
$25 billion in 30-year bonds

Some rates strategist had cautioned of risk that the Treasury would revise its guidance to incorporate the potential for increasing issuance of longer-dated securities, given the outsize federal budget deficit. But the department reiterated its May language, preventing another bond market rout similar to the one seen exactly one year ago when Janet Yellen shocked the market with a big surge in bond issuance.The refunding total is just shy of the record $126BN first reached in Feb. 2021; auction sizes across the curve began rising in 2018 to finance tax cuts and surged in 2020 to finance federal pandemic response. The Treasury confirmed expectations that the balance of Treasury financing requirements over the quarter will be met with regular weekly bill auctions, cash management bills (CMBs), and monthly note, bond, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), and 2-year Floating Rate Note (FRN) auctions.It also said that "its current auction sizes leave it well positioned to address potential changes to the fiscal outlook and to the pace and duration of future SOMA redemptions." More improtantly, the Treasury forecast that "based on current projected borrowing needs,Treasury does not anticipate needing to increase nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters."The table below presents, in billions of dollars, the actual auction sizes for the May to July 2024 quarter and the anticipated auction sizes for the August to October 2024 quarter:

Ex-Biden Treasury official details playbook for next administration --Graham Steele, recently the assistant secretary for financial institutions at the Treasury Department, said the Biden administration has put bank regulatory measures on the back burner of policy priorities, despite glaring shortcomings. "More than three years into the administration's term, despite a crypto crash, a regional banking panic, and a climate-driven crisis in home insurance markets, financial policy issues haven't been at the top of the progressive economic policy agenda — but they should be," said Steele, who stepped down from his Treasury post in January. In his paper, which was published by the Roosevelt Institute, an influential progressive think tank on economic and banking issues, Steele outlines a framework for the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. These include some of the unfinished reforms from the 2008 financial crisis, undoing some of the Trump administration's tailoring of the bank regulatory system and responding to increased digitization in the financial system. Steele suggested increasing risk-based capital leverage ratios for "too big to fail" banks, upping the largest banks' lowest minimum capital requirement from 8% to 13.5% and raising the highest risk-based capital requirement to 18.5%. He also recommends replacing the 5% supplementary leverage ratio for these banks with a progressive leverage ratio between 6% and 10%. Regarding bank failures, Steele said that the banking agencies should establish a presumption against any transaction that would result in a bank having more than 10% of deposits nationwide, and Congress should pass a law that would allow the FDIC to accept the next least costly bid for a failed bank where the least-cost bid would result in an institution that exceeds that threshold.

U.S. urges restraint in Israel-Hezbollah conflict -- U.S. and international officials are urging both Israel and Hezbollah to exercise restraint and avoid embarking on a devastating, regional war, after a rocket strike from the Iranian-backed group killed a dozen young people on a soccer field in northern Israel. The Biden administration has backed Israel’s assessment that the rocket that struck in northern Israel was launched by Hezbollah, even as the terrorist group and Lebanese officials have denied responsibility. And the White House came out Monday saying Israel has a right to defend itself, while calling for diplomacy to calm tensions on both sides.“Israel seems poised to conduct a pretty punishing strike against Hezbollah,” said Brian Katulis,senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Middle East Institute. “I think what the White House may be hoping for in its public messaging and what it’s doing privately is similar to the Goldilocks response … not too hard to cause a broad regional war, not too soft to have no impact at all. But something that’s just somewhere in between,” he continued.But Biden administration officials are confident that such a strike against Hezbollah would not trigger a broader war. “We all heard about this all-out war scenario now, multiple points over the last 10 months,” said John Kirby, the White House National Security Council communications adviser. “Those predictions were exaggerated then, quite frankly, we think they’re exaggerated now. Look, Israel has every right to respond. But nobody wants a broader war, and I’m confident that we’ll be able to avoid such an outcome.”The U.S. said it is in touch with Israeli and Lebanese officials to calm tensions. Hezbollah’s military and political wing are blacklisted by the U.S. as a terrorist organization, but the U.S. holds ties with Beirut and is a key supporter of the Lebanese armed forces.While Hezbollah started striking Israel in the aftermath of Hamas’s Oct. 7 terrorist attack as an act of solidarity with Palestinians, leader Hassan Nasrallah has said that the group would respect a cease-fire if reached between Israel and Hamas. “One of the reasons that we’re continuing to work so hard for a cease-fire in Gaza is not just for Gaza but also so that we can really … bring calm, lasting calm, across the Blue Line between Israel and Lebanon,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.

Don't bomb Beirut: U.S. leads push to rein in Israel's response (Reuters) - The United States is leading a diplomatic dash to deter Israel from striking Lebanon's capital Beirut or major civil infrastructure in response to a deadly rocket attack on the Golan Heights, five people with knowledge of the drive said. Washington is racing to avert a full-blown war between Israel and the Iranian-backed Lebanese movement Hezbollah after the attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan killed 12 youths at the weekend, according to the five people who include Lebanese and Iranian officials plus Middle Eastern and European diplomats. Israel and the U.S. have blamed Hezbollah for the rocket strike, though the group has denied responsibility. The focus of the high-speed diplomacy has been to constrain Israel's response by urging it against targeting densely populated Beirut, the southern suburbs of the city that form Hezbollah's heartland, or key infrastructure like airports and bridges, said the sources who requested anonymity to discuss confidential details that haven't been previously reported. Lebanon's deputy parliament speaker Elias Bou Saab, who said he had been in contact with U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein since Saturday's Golan attack, told Reuters Israel could avert the threat of major escalation by sparing the capital and its environs. "If they avoid civilians and they avoid Beirut and its suburbs, then their attack could be well calculated," he said. Israeli officials have said that their country wants to hurt Hezbollah but not drag the region into all-out war. The two Middle Eastern and European diplomats said Israel hadn't made any commitment to avoiding strikes on Beirut, its suburbs or civil infrastructure. The U.S. State Department said it wouldn't comment on the specifics of diplomatic conversations, though it was seeking a "durable solution" to end all cross-border fire. "Our support for Israel's security is ironclad and unwavering against all Iran-backed threats, including Hezbollah," a spokesperson told Reuters. White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that Israel had every right to respond to the Golan strike, but that nobody wanted a broader war. "As for conversations over the weekend, you bet we've had them and we had them at multiple levels," he added. "But I'm not going to detail the guts of those conversations." The Israeli Prime Minister's office didn't respond to a request for comment, while Hezbollah declined to comment. The five people with knowledge of the diplomatic push over the past two days have either been involved in the conversations or briefed on them. They said the efforts aimed to achieve a calibrated approach similar to that which contained April's exchange of missile and drone attacks between Israel and Iran, sparked by an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. An Iranian official said the United States had also conveyed messages to Tehran at least three times since Saturday's attack on the Golan Heights, "warning that escalating the situation would be detrimental to all parties." Hezbollah is the most powerful of Iran's "Axis of Resistance" network of regional proxy groups and allied with Palestinian group Hamas. It has been trading fire with the Israeli military across Lebanon's southern border since the Gaza war erupted last October. During a 2006 war, the last time Israel and Hezbollah fought a major conflict, Israeli forces bombed Beirut's southern suburbs, known as the Dahiya, hitting Hezbollah-affiliated buildings as well as residential towers. Beirut airport was bombed and put out of action, and across Lebanon bridges, roads, petrol stations and other infrastructure were destroyed. A French diplomat told Reuters that since the Golan attack, Paris had also been involved in passing messages between Israel and Hezbollah to de-escalate the situation. France has historic ties with Lebanon, which was under French mandate from 1920 till it gained independence in 1943. Paris has maintained close ties since then and has about 20,000 citizens in the country, many dual nationals. The French foreign ministry didn't respond to Reuters requests for comment. The Israeli Homefront Command, a military unit responsible for protecting civilians, has not changed any of its instructions to citizens so far, an indication that the military is not expecting imminent danger from Hezbollah or any other group. On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's security cabinet, which comprises 10 ministers and has dictated policy on the Gaza war and Hezbollah, authorized the premier and the defense minister to "decide on the manner and timing of the response" against Hezbollah. This decision, coupled with the abstention of Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners - Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir - suggests that Israel has opted for a response short of the all-out war that some politicians have advocated for. Following the Golan attack, Smotrich had issued a strong statement demanding robust action. He posted on X: "For the death of children, (Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan) Nasrallah should pay with his head. All of Lebanon should pay."

IDF targets Beirut suburb in retaliation for attack that killed 12 in the Golan -- Israel’s military says it has killed a Hezbollah official who it says was “the commander responsible” for a deadly attack last week on the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights that killed 12 young people.The Israel Defense Forces said it killed Fuad Shukr on Tuesday in an airstrike in the area of Beirut in Lebanon.The IDF claimed that Shukr “was the commander responsible for the murder of the 12 children in Majdal Shams in northern Israel on Saturday evening, as well as the killing of numerous Israelis and foreign nationals over the years.”Israel was targeting Shukr, better known by his nickname, Hajj Mohsen, in the strike in a suburb of southern Beirut, an Israeli official told NBC News. Mohsen is a senior adviser to Hezbollah’s supreme leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and a member of the group’s military council, according to a U.S. gove r nment pr ofile.Hezbollah has denied responsibility for the rocket attack Saturday, which struck a soccer field in the Golan Heights.Militants in Lebanon and Israel have been trading fire since Hamas' Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel and the start of the war in Gaza, raising fears that the fighting will spiral into a regional conflict.Al Manar, a satellite television station run by Hezbollah, reported that Israel had "launched an aerial aggression that targeted the southern suburb of Beirut.""Local sources reported that the raid in the Haret Hreik area was carried out by a drone and 3 missiles were fired," the report added.The television station also said a building Israel targeted in the Haret Hreik area, a Hezbollah stronghold, had collapsed.Al Manar reported that two people were killed and at least 10 were wounded in the strike. Personnel from the emergency room at Bahman Hospital in Beirut told NBC News that a woman was killed and 17 other people were wounded, including six children and two who were in critical condition. In a statement, the Lebanese Red Cross said more than one person had been killed and over 20 had been injured.The Lebanese Health Ministry said a woman was killed and up to 68 other people were injured, five of them critically.Photographs from the area also showed cars crushed and covered with rubble.Saturday's strike on Majdal Shams killed at least 12 people, most of them children and teenagers belonging to the minority Druze community.

Israeli Killing of Hamas Political Chief Expected To Derail Ceasefire Talks - The Israeli assassination of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in the Iranian capital of Tehran is expected to derail negotiations for a hostage and Gaza ceasefire deal. Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani, who has been mediating indirect talks between Israel and Hamas, expressed concern about the impact the assassination will have on the negotiations.“Political assassinations and continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue leads us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side? Peace needs serious partners and a global stance against the disregard for human life,” al-Thani wrote on X.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was doing everything he could to sabotage the chances of a deal before his big trip to Washington, something that’s been widely acknowledged by Israeli media and officials.Haniyeh was seen as Hamas’s leading proponent of reaching a ceasefire deal with Hamas. While Hamas’s top leader is Yahya Sinwar, who is believed to be hiding deep inside the tunnel system under Gaza, Haniyeh was the top official for the Palestinian group outside of Gaza and played a key role in the negotiations.Progress toward a deal is not expected to be made as the region is bracing for Iran’s retaliation for the assassination on its territory and Hezbollah’s response to the Israeli killing of one of its top military commanders in Beirut.US officials told Axios that they’re concerned the assassination of Haniyeh will derail negotiations and could lead to a major regional war. But the US is strongly backing Israel, as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin vowed the US would defend Israel from any retaliation.

Israel Sure Looks Like It Wants To Prevent Peace And Start A New War -- Caitlin Johnstone -- Israel has been on another assassination spree, killing Hamas political leader Ismael Haniyeh on Wednesday with an airstrike while he was in Tehran for the swearing in of the new Iranian president. Israel also claims to have killedHezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in an airstrike on Beirut on Tuesday evening.Iran and Lebanon will now have to decide how to respond to these incendiary aggressions. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has promised “harsh punishment” for the strike on Iranian soil, appearing to place the attack on the same level as Israel’s assassination of Iranian officials in Damascus this past April which drew a massive drone and missile retaliation from Iran. “The response to an assassination will indeed be special operations — harder and intended to instill deep regret in the perpetrator,” reads an official statement from an Iranian government Twitter account.According to Barak Ravid of Axios, Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant told US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin that “Israel does not seek war” but “the IDF remains prepared to respond to any attack by Hezbollah,” which is the sort of victim-LARPing only an Israeli official could perform after two straight high-profile assassination strikes.Conventional wisdom is that Israel would prefer to avoid a major new war while its forces remain tied up in Gaza, but it certainly isn’t acting like a nation that’s trying to avoid a new war. Or like a nation that’s trying to wrap things up in Gaza, for that matter.Some interesting commentary on this still-unfolding story:

“Political assassinations and continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue leads us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?” tweeted the Prime Minister of Qatar, where Haniyeh had been living prior to his assassination.
“So Israel murders Hamas political leader and key negotiator, Ismael Haniyeh, and wants us to believe it is serious about negotiating a ceasefire?” tweetedCode Pink’s Medea Benjamin. “And it kills him at the inauguration of Iran’s new president Pezeshkian, who campaigned for better relations with the West. Instead of a ceasefire and a regional de-escalation, Netanyahu is gunning for a full-scale regional war.”
“Saying they want a ceasefire and then assassinating the guy they’d negotiate it with is a pretty clear sign of how serious Israel is about diplomacy,” tweetedAjam Media Collective’s Alex Shams.
“Killing Haniyeh in Tehran immediately after bombing Beirut like… are they willfully instigating a regional war they’re absolutely not prepared to fight or once again radically failing to anticipate the possible consequences of their actions? Either way they are suicidally stupid,” tweeted Christa Peterson.
“There is a secret third option: they know they can’t fight this war but they can make it bad enough that Americans have to,” tweeted Matthew Petti in response.

After all the thunderous applause Netanyahu received for his deceitful genocide apologia speech before Congress last week, this does not at all seem like an unreasonable expectation. We’ve seen nothing from Washington these last ten months to suggest that it would leave Israel to defend itself should a series of escalations lead to a major war with Lebanon and/or Iran. We shall see, I suppose.

Austin Pledges the US Will Defend Israel If It Faces Attack After Latest Escalations - Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Wednesday that the US would defend Israel if it faces attacks in response to its airstrike in Beirut that targeted a Hezbollah commander and the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas’s political bureau who was killed in Tehran.Israel has not formally taken credit for killing Haniyeh, but Israeli intelligence has a long history of carrying out covert attacks inside Iran, including assassinations. Both Iran and Hamas have blamed Israel for the killing and are vowing revenge.“Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge,” Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wrote on X.The New York Times later reported that Khamenei issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly in retaliation for the killing of Haniyeh. The report, which cited three anonymous Iranian officials, said he gave the order at an emergency meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on Wednesday morning.Austin, who is visiting the Philippines, was asked what assistance the US would provide if a wider regional war broke out. “We certainly will help defend Israel. You saw us do that April. You can expect to see us do that again,” he saidAustin was referring to the US and some of its allies intercepting Iranian missiles and drones that were fired at Israel in response to the April 1 Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. The consulate bombing, which killed a senior Iranian general, provoked the first-ever Iranian attack on Israeli territory.US officials claim they’re working to ease tensions in the Middle East, but providing unconditional military aid to Israel and vowing to defend it from any consequences only emboldens the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which appears determined to get the US involved in a major war.If Iran, Hezbollah, and other Shia allies in the region decide to coordinate a major attack, it could involve targeting US bases in Iraq and Syria, which are vulnerable to Iranian missiles. Rocket attacks on those bases restarted last week, and the US bombed the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces on Tuesday, only a few hours after Israel bombed Beirut.

Pentagon to send fighter jets, keep carrier group in Middle East amid tensions -- Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered a fighter jet squadron, Navy ships and air defenses to the Middle East amid heightened regional tensions due to Israeli attacks in Iran and Lebanon. “The Department of Defense continues to take steps to mitigate the possibility of regional escalation by Iran or Iran’s partners and proxies,” deputy Pentagon press secretary Sabrina Singh said in a statement Friday. “To that end, Secretary Austin has ordered adjustments to U.S. military posture designed to improve U.S. force protection, to increase support for the defense of Israel, and to ensure the United States is prepared to respond to various contingencies.”In addition to the fighter jets, the Pentagon will send more ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers to the European and Middle East regions, take steps to send more land-based ballistic missile defenses and maintain a carrier strike group presence in the Middle East, the USS Abraham Lincoln.The order comes after President Biden promised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Thursday that he would increase American military presence in the region to help defend Israel from possible attacks by Iran and its allies amid the ongoing war in Gaza.The United States is currently bracing for Tehran to follow through on their pledge to respond to the assassination of Hamas peace negotiator Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday in Tehran. Israel has not claimed responsibility for Haniyeh’s death, but hours after the attack became public, Netanyahu gave defiant remarks, saying Israel is achieving its goals. Israel did claim responsibility for a Tuesday strike in Beirut that killed a top Hezbollah commander.The intense rhetoric has the West concerned that the region will ignite into an all-out war, with the White House stressing Wednesday that the Israeli strikes are not helpful while the administration seeks a cease-fire deal to a relentless Israeli air and ground campaign in the Gaza Strip.White House national security communications adviser John Kirby said the recent events complicate the pending deal that aims to end the war that has largely killed civilians, the majority women and children, and sent the territory into famine.

Biden Tells Netanyahu the US Will Defend Israel, Pledges New Military Deployments - President Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday and promised the US would help defend Israel from any reprisal attacks it may face from Iran or its allies in response to recent Israeli escalations.Iran is vowing revenge for the Israeli assassination of Hamas’s political chief in Tehran, and Hezbollah is warning it will escalate in response to the Israeli strike in Beirut that killed one of its top commanders.“The President reaffirmed his commitment to Israel’s security against all threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis,” the White House said in a readout of the Biden-Netanyahu call.Biden also said the US was deploying more military assets to the region. “The President discussed efforts to support Israel’s defense against threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new defensive US military deployments,” the readout said. The White House said Vice President Kamala Harris was also on the call.A Pentagon official told The Washington Post that the US had assembled 12 warships in the Middle East that were already in the region to prepare to defend Israel. The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and six US Navy destroyers are in the Persian Gulf, while three amphibious ships and two destroyers are in the Eastern Mediterranean.US officials told Axios that the US is preparing for a direct Iranian attack on Israel and believes it could be bigger than the April 13 missile and drone attack that came in response to the Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. The next attack could include Hezbollah and other Iranian allies. Biden, Harris, and other US officials claim they’re trying to reduce tensions. But unconditional US military aid for Israel and vows to defend Israel no matter what it does in the region only emboldens Netanyahu and leads to more escalations.

Mass Media Goons Are Still Reporting That Biden Is Getting Tough On Netanyahu --Caitlin Johnstone -- Another day, another Axios article falsely asserting that President Biden is really getting tough on Benjamin Netanyahu. In a write-up titled “Biden warns Netanyahu against escalation as risk of regional war grows,” Barak Ravid reports that while Biden has pledged to support Israel against any strikes from Iran in retaliation for its insanely escalatory assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, he also told Netanyahu that he “expects no more escalation from the Israeli side” from here on out.“President Biden privately demanded in a ‘tough’ call Thursday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stop escalating tensions in the region and move immediately toward a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal,” writes Ravid, citing two US officials who as usual remain unnamed.“At the end of the meeting with Netanyahu in the Oval office last Thursday, Biden became emotional, raised his voice and told Netanyahu he needs to reach a Gaza deal as soon as possible, three Israeli officials with knowledge of the meeting told Axios,” Ravid reports.Ravid writes:“One U.S. official said Biden complained to Netanyahu that the two had just spoken last week in the Oval Office about securing the hostage deal, but instead Netanyahu went ahead with the assassination in Tehran.“Biden then told Netanyahu the U.S. will help Israel defeat an Iranian attack, but after that he expects no more escalation from the Israeli side and immediate movement toward a hostage deal, the U.S. official said.”Sure, sure. This time Biden really means it when he draws a firm line with Israel, unlike all those other times when this administration has continued to back Israel’s psychopathic actions unconditionally since October 7.Commentators on US foreign policy are less than impressed with this report.“It’s the umpteenth installment of ‘Biden is secretly mad at Bibi’: he became emotional! He raised his voice!” tweeted The Economist’s Gregg Carlstrom. “Can’t imagine anyone takes these self-serving leaks seriously. Least of all Netanyahu, who has ignored Biden with impunity for ten months”“Biden reportedly told Netanyahu he’ll help defeat an Iranian attack, but expects no more escalation from Israel, warning Netanyahu that he shouldn’t count on the US to bail him out again,” tweeted Quincy Institute’s Trita Parsi, adding, “Fine, but given Biden’s record, why should Netanyahu believe him?”Barak Ravid has made an entire career out of writing up these anonymously sourced White House press releases about how badass and un-genocidal the president is and packaging them as real news stories. Here are some of the headlines from Ravid’s reporting since October:

State Department Won’t Call Israeli Rape of Palestinian Prisoners a War Crime -The State Department on Tuesday refused to label Israeli soldiers raping Palestinian prisoners as a war crime.Said Arikat, a reporter for Al Quds, asked State Department spokesman Vedant Patel about the Israeli soldiers who were detained for raping a Palestinian prisoner at the notorious Sde Teiman detention facility. The Palestinian was transferred to a hospital with damage to his rectum that was so severe he could not walk.The condition of the prisoner confirms some of the worst allegations about conditions in Sde Teiman. Both Israeli whistleblowers and former Palestinian prisoners have detailed torture and widespread abuse carried out by Israeli soldiers at the facility.“Apparently rape and killing and torture and all this thing – it happens regularly in Israeli detention camps. Does that constitute a war crime to you?” Arikat asked Patel.Patel replied, “So the reports of abuse are deeply concerning, and we have been clear and consistent with Israel and the IDF that they need to treat all detainees humanely and with dignity in accordance with humanitarian law.” He added that the US was going to let “due process” play out in the case against the Israeli soldiers.Arikat followed up, asking, “Now, if proven to be true, that does constitute a war crime, doesn’t it?”Patel said, “I am not a legal expert, Said. Certainly I imagine it would be inconsistent with Israeli law.”

Today In 'Every Accusation Is A Confession' - Caitlin Johnstone - Today in Every Accusation Is A Confession, the same nation which has spent ten months calling Palestinians rapists without evidence has found itself dealing with rioters supporting the right to continue the systemic and extensively evidenced rape of Palestinian prisoners.When Israeli police detained nine IDF soldiers on accusation of sodomizing a Palestinian prisoner so brutally he couldn’t walk at the notorious Sde Teiman prison in southern Israel, protests erupted from far right activists in defense of the soldiers with the backing of multiple officials from the Netanyahu regime. The rioters were so aggressive that they actually broke into the Israeli military base where the soldiers were being questioned in an attempt to free them.Asked by the press about the rape accusations, US State Department Deputy Spokesman Vedant Patel refused to say whether gang raping Palestinian prisoners would be considered a war crime, even if conclusively proven.The western press are refusing to even use the word “rape” in reference to the allegations, with the BBC describing the soldiers as standing accused of “severely mistreating a Palestinian prisoner” and the New York Times describing it as “suspected abuse”. Israeli society has a very twisted attitude toward rape. A 2011 poll found that 61 percent of Israeli men don’t believe forcing sex on an acquaintance counts as rape, and only seven percent of Israeli men believe there’s such a thing as spousal rape.

US Launches Airstrikes in Iraq, Four Members of the PMF Reported Killed - A US official told Reuters that the US carried out a strike in Iraq on Tuesday just hours after Israel bombed Beirut.The official didn’t share details about the attack, but earlier, a drone strike was reported in the Iraqi province of Babylon that hit a base housing Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of mostly Shia militias that’s part of Iraq’s security forces. A PMF official told AFP that the base was hit by four or five missiles. An Iraqi security source confirmed that four people were killed and said the death toll was expected to rise.The US has a history of targeting the PMF as retaliation for rocket attacks on US bases in the region. The US’s latest bombing came a few days after rockets were fired toward the Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq, which houses US troops. A US base in eastern Syria was also targeted in recent days. The Iraqi government strongly opposes unilateral US strikes on the PMF since the coalition is part of its military. US attacks on the PMF led to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani calling for a US withdrawal.

Iraq Condemns US Airstrike as 'Heinous Crime and Blatant Aggression' - Iraq has strongly condemned a US airstrike that targeted the country on Tuesday and killed several members of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of mostly Shia militias that was formed in 2014 to fight ISIS and are part of Iraq’s security forces.The US attack came as Washington and Baghdad have been discussing the future of the US military presence in Iraq. US strikes against the PMF in 2023 and at the beginning of this year prompted Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to call for an end to the US-led anti-ISIS coalition in Iraq.“Despite extensive efforts through political and diplomatic channels … in the efforts [to end] the presence and operations of the Global Coalition against Daesh (ISIS) in Iraq and transitioning to a bilateral security relationship based on mutual respect and safeguarding Iraq’s sovereignty and security, the coalition forces have committed a heinous crime and blatant aggression,” said Iraqi Maj. Gen. Yehia Rasool, a spokesman for al-Sudani.“Such serious and uncalculated transgressions can significantly undermine all efforts, mechanisms, and frameworks of joint security work to combat ISIS in Iraq and Syria. They also risk dragging Iraq and the entire region into dangerous conflicts and wars. Therefore, we hold the coalition forces fully responsible for these consequences following this flagrant aggression,” Rasool added.The PMF announced on Tuesday that at least four of its fighters were killed in the US attack. The US bombing came a few days after rocket attacks targeted US bases in Iraq and Syria for the first time in a few months, likely a response to the lack of a clear plan for a US withdrawal from Iraq.The US bombing in Iraq came just hours after Israel launched an airstrike on Beirut targeting a senior Hezbollah commander. If Hezbollah and the Iraqi Shia militias coordinate a response to the Israeli escalation, it could involve attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria since the US has pledged it will intervene to defend Israel.

US to supply Ukraine with $200M in air defenses and weapons --The U.S. military will soon send Ukraine up to $200 million in air defenses and other weapons and has made a $1.5 billion commitment to support the country’s defenses over the long term, the Biden administration announced Monday. The United States will send the smaller package as part of a presidential drawdown authority, meaning it will pull the lethal air directly from its stocks, “to provide Ukraine with key capabilities, including: air defense interceptors; munitions for rocket systems and artillery; and anti-tank weapons,” according to a Pentagon statement. Speaking to reporters earlier, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said the package will include munitions for U.S.-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), artillery and mortar rounds, and javelin anti-tank missiles. The $1.5 billion package, meanwhile, will come from Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funds, meaning the dollars will be used to buy arms on the global market or directly from U.S. weapons manufacturers. That weapons tranche includes munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, short- and medium-range air defense munitions, air defense missiles, ammunition for HIMARS, anti-tank weapons, and other artillery and munitions. Washington has given Kyiv more than $50 billion worth of military aid since 2022, and President Biden has authorized nine security assistance packages for Ukraine since late April as the country has struggled to hold back Russian advancement on the eastern front. Ukrainian defensive lines have been strained by manpower shortages and near constant Russian attacks, with Kremlin troops making quick gains in the eastern Donetsk region over the past week. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who met with Biden at the NATO summit in Washington, D.C., earlier this month, urged further permission to fire U.S.-provided, long-range missiles at targets farther across Russian borders.

US Announces $1.7 Billion Weapons Package for Ukraine - The Pentagon announced on Friday that it was providing Ukraine with a new weapons package worth $1.7 billion, which includes munitions for air defense systems, ammunition for HIMARS rocket systems, artillery shells, and other types of equipment.The package includes $1.5 billion that’s being provided through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). The USAI allows the US to purchase weapons for Ukraine, which means it could take months or years before the equipment is delivered.The other $200 million uses the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows President Biden to ship weapons to Ukraine directly from Pentagon stockpiles. The announcement came a few days after the Pentagon said it found an “accounting error” that overvalued previous weapons sent to Ukraine, freeing up another $2 billion to spend on the proxy war.The new US military aid comes as Russian forces are making steady gainsin the east and are closing in on the Donestk city of Pokrovsk.According to the Pentagon, the new weapons package includes:

Munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS)
Short- and medium-range air defense munitions
RIM-7 missiles for air defense
Electronic Warfare equipment
Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
155mm and 105mm artillery rounds
120mm mortar rounds
Precision aerial munitions
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
Small arms
Explosives material and demolitions equipment and munitions
Secure communications systems
Commercial satellite imagery services
Spare parts, maintenance and sustainment support, and other ancillary equipment

The Pentagon also released a fact sheet on Monday that said the Biden administration has pledged more than $55.4 billion in military equipment for Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion in February 2022. The funds for the new weapons package are being pulled from the $61 billion in Ukraine spending that was included in the $95 billion foreign military aid bill President Biden signed into law in April. Adding up the $61 billion with previous spending brings the total cost of the proxy war since February 2022 to about $186 billion.

Ukraine Gets First Delivery of US-Made F-16 Fighter Jets - Ukraine has received its first batch of US-made F-16 fighter jets from NATO, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, marking an escalation of the alliance’s involvement in the proxy war.Bloomberg’s sources did not say how many planes had arrived, only that it was a “small” number. They also said it was not immediately clear if Ukrainian pilots trained by Western countries to fly the F-16s could use them right away or if the process would take longer.The Washington Post recently reported that only six Ukrainian pilots were expected to finish the training by this summer. If the F-16s are put in use soon, they’re expected to operate far from the frontlines as US officials fear they could be easily downed by Russian air defense systems.Denmark and the Netherlands are supplying the first batch of planes, and Belgium and Norway have also pledged to provide Ukraine with F-16s, but most won’t be delivered for years. The US hasn’t promised to provide the jets but has helped with training and will arm the F-16s with advanced missiles.The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the US had agreed to arm the Ukrainian F-16s with “AGM-88 HARM air-to-ground missiles; the extended-range versions of Joint Direct Attack Munition kits, which convert unguided bombs to smart weapons; and so-called small diameter bombs that explode with a tight blast radius. In addition, the U.S. will send advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles, known as AMRAAM, and AIM-9X short-range air-to-air missiles for the jets.”

Putin Warns Russia Will Respond to US Missile Deployment in Germany - Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Sunday that Russia could deploy new missile systems in response to a planned US missile deployment to Germany and warned of a Cold War-style incident. Earlier this month, the US announced it would deploy missiles to Germany in 2026 that were previously banned by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which prohibited land-based missile systems with a range between 310 and 3,400 miles.The US withdrew from the treaty in 2019, but Putin said Russia has maintained a unilateral moratorium on the deployment of missiles prohibited by the treaty. He said that could change in response to the US deployment.“If the United States carries through these plans, we will consider ourselves to be free from our unilateral moratorium on deploying intermediate-and shorter-range strike weapons, including measures to raise the capabilities of coastal defense troops of our Navy,” Putin said in a speech for Russia’s Navy Day in St. Petersburg.Putin noted that the US missile systems would be able to quickly strike Russian territory. “The fly-in time of such missiles that can be eventually equipped with nuclear warheads will constitute about 10 minutes to reach targets on our territory,” he said.The US announced its deployment would include Tomahawk missiles, which are nuclear-capable and have a range of over 1,000 miles. Tomahawks are typically used on US Navy destroyers and submarines since a land-based version was banned by the INF.The US also said it will send SM-6 missiles to Germany, which signals it’s planning to deploy a Typhon missile system. The Typhon is a covert system concealed in a 40-foot shipping container that can fire Tomahawks and SM-6 missiles. The SM-6 can hit targets up to 290 miles away, below the levels previously banned by the INF. The US has recently deployed Typhon launchers for drills in the Philippines and Denmark.

Stationing of long-range US precision missiles in Germany: Another step towards Third World War - Between 1981 and 1983, then West Germany experienced the largest mass demonstrations in its history. Millions protested against the deployment of American Pershing II medium-range nuclear missiles. In the German capital at that time, Bonn, 300,000 people took part in a peace demonstration on 10 October 1981 and half a million on 10 June 1982. There were also hundreds of other large demonstrations and sit-in blockades. On 22 October 1983, 1.3 million people took to the streets across Germany. The deployment of the Pershing II was part of an escalation of the Cold War against the Soviet Union under US President Ronald Reagan, which was supported by the German Social Democratic (SPD) Chancellor Helmut Schmidt. The demonstrations were fuelled by pacifist ideas and the fear of a nuclear catastrophe. The participants were aware that the deployment of nuclear weapons which could reach Moscow in less than 10 minutes increased the risk of war and made Germany the prime target of a Soviet nuclear strike.More than 30 years later, the German government has taken a decision whose dangers and political consequences are far more serious than those of the deployment of the Pershing II. During the NATO summit in Washington at the beginning of July, the German and US governments signed an agreement to deploy Tomahawk cruise missiles, SM-6 guided missiles and Dark Eagle hypersonic missiles in Germany by 2026. They are intended to bridge the gap until Germany, in cooperation with other European countries, has developed its own precision weapons with ranges of several thousand kilometres. All three weapons can easily reach the largest Russian cities, Moscow and St. Petersburg. They are capable of taking out “Russian high-value targets”, e.g., central elements of the Russian nuclear forces. They are launched from mobile launchers and are difficult to defend against. While the Tomahawk uses extremely low altitudes to fly under enemy radar, the SM-6 and Dark Eagle reach speeds that overwhelm even the most modern missile defence system. The SM-6 flies at five times the speed of sound, and the Dark Eagle, which is still in the developmental stage, even flies at 17 times the speed of sound. The warning time thus tends towards zero; the danger of escalation grows accordingly. The Russian military would be practically forced to retaliate within fractions of a minute at the mere suspicion of an attack or to launch a pre-emptive attack in order to avoid the destruction of its own nuclear forces.Deploying the missiles in densely populated Germany puts the lives of millions of people at risk. This is one of the reasons why NATO has only deployed comparable long-range precision weapons at sea or in the air in recent decades. But this limits their effectiveness considerably. Missiles fired from aeroplanes can only be launched after takeoff, which takes a lot of time, and sea-based missiles have too short a range and are too slow.Unlike the Pershing II, the decision to deploy the new US missiles was made without any public discussion. The German government made the decision in a cloak-and-dagger operation and is doing everything it can to suppress any debate about it. It is supported in this by the synchronised public and private media, which barely mention the decision and play down the deployment and its dangers.The end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union did not herald a period of peace, as bourgeois propaganda claimed at the time. On the contrary, the struggle between “the nation-state financial groups for the division of the world and for domination over other countries” has taken on enormous proportions. Since then, the US and its European allies have waged uninterrupted war and destroyed entire societies in the Middle East and other regions. Not content with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, they also want to break up Russia in order to gain access to its vast natural resources. China, whose cheap labour they initially exploited, is to be reduced to the status of a semi-colony. Their support for the genocide in Gaza shows that they will not shy away from any crime.

Trump splits with GOP lawmakers on national security, raising alarm - National security-minded Republican lawmakers are alarmed by what they see as a growing split between themselves and former President Trump on key issues, including the war in Ukraine, preserving the NATO alliance and protecting Taiwan from Chinese aggression. Trump’s actions over the past three weeks have stirred confusion and concern among Republican senators who voted earlier this year to approve tens of billions of dollars to contain Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and to deter China from attacking Taiwan, an important U.S. ally and trading partner. Defense-minded GOP senators viewed Trump’s invitation to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to visit him at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida after the NATO summit in Washington as a worrisome development, given Orbán’s close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin and his efforts to undermine NATO’s support for the defense of Ukraine. GOP senators who support U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine were dismayed when Trump selected Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), who led the opposition to the Ukrainian assistance package, as his running mate. And Senate Republicans are feeling uneasy about Trump’s assertion that Taiwan should pay more for its defense and refusal to commit to defending the island. One Republican senator, who requested anonymity, said “it’s a big question” whether Trump will support the war in Ukraine or would come to Taiwan’s defense if attacked by China. “I don’t think he desires to be in conflict or to pay for conflicts around the world,” the senator observed. “There’s no question where JD Vance is,” the lawmaker said of Trump’s selection of the Ohio senator as his running mate. And the senator called Trump’s meeting with Orbán at Mar-a-Lago “concerning.” “I can’t tell you why he’s doing it,” the lawmaker remarked. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) argued earlier this year that the Republican Party has “turned the corner on the isolationist movement” within its ranks when a majority of GOP senators voted for a $95 billion foreign aid package, which included $61 billion for Ukraine. But that’s now in doubt after Trump picked Vance to join him on the GOP ticket. Opponents of continued funding for the war in Ukraine cheered the selection and touted it as a sign Trump would change course if elected in November. “JD is probably one of the most outspoken individuals about continuing to fuel the flames of that bloody stalemate. I happen to agree with him. I think President Trump does as well,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who opposes sending more funding to Ukraine. Johnson said Vance’s selection as Trump’s running mate “kind of confirms the position of, hopefully, the next administration.” “The president said he’d end that thing in 24 hours,” Johnson said, referring to Trump’s comments on the war. Vance told The Hill in April that the $61 billion approved for Ukraine would be the last major assistance package of its kind to get through Congress. “If Ukraine thinks that it’s getting another $60 billion supplemental out of the United States Congress, there’s no way,” Vance said.

US, Russia Conduct Prisoner Swap - The US and Russia conducted a major prisoner swap on Thursday that freed Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former US Marine Paul Whelan.Gershkovich was arrested in March 2023 on charges of espionage, which were rejected by the US government and the WSJ. In July, he was convicted to serve a 16-year prison sentence, which must have come as the US and Russia were quietly negotiating the prisoner swap.Whelan was arrested in Moscow in 2018 when he was found with a USB in his pocket that contained classified information. He maintained his innocence and said the USB was planted on him, but was convicted on espionage charges and ordered to serve a 16-year sentence in 2020.Two other US citizens were also released, along with five Germans, and seven Russian citizens who were held in their own country. In exchange, eight Russians who were in prison in the US, Germany, Slovenia, Norway, and Poland were released.In comments on the swap at the White House, Biden said some of the Russians who were freed from Russia were connected to Alexei Navalny, an opposition figure who died earlier this year while serving a 19-year sentence at a penal colony in Siberia. Biden accused Putin of killing Navalny, but it was later revealed that US intelligence agencies didn’t believe that was the case, and Ukrainian intelligence said he likely died of a blood clot. The exchange marks the second high-profile prisoner swap the US and Russia have conducted since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The previous deal freed WNBA star Brittney Griner in exchange for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout.

3 newly freed Americans are back on US soil after a landmark prisoner exchange with Russia (AP) — The United States and Russia completed their biggest prisoner swap in post-Soviet history on Thursday, with Moscow releasing journalist Evan Gershkovich and fellow American Paul Whelan, along with dissidents including Vladimir Kara-Murza, in a multinational deal that set two dozen people free. Gershkovich, Whelan and Alsu Kurmasheva, a journalist with dual U.S.-Russia citizenship, arrived on American soil shortly before midnight for a joyful reunion with their families. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris also were at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland to greet them and dispense hugs all around.The trade unfolded despite relations between Washington and Moscow being at their lowest point since the Cold War after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.Negotiators in backchannel talks at one point explored an exchange involving Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, but after his death in February ultimately stitched together a 24-person deal that required significant concessions from European allies, including the release of a Russian assassin, and secured freedom for a cluster of journalists, suspected spies, political prisoners and others. Biden trumpeted the exchange, by far the largest in a series of swaps with Russia, as a diplomatic feat while welcoming families of the returning Americans to the White House. But the deal, like others before it, reflected an innate imbalance: The U.S. and allies gave up Russians charged or convicted of serious crimes in exchange for Russia releasing journalists, dissidents and others imprisoned by the country’s highly politicized legal system on charges seen by the West as trumped-up.“Deals like this one come with tough calls,” Biden said. He added, “There’s nothing that matters more to me than protecting Americans at home and abroad.”Under the deal, Russia released Gershkovich, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal who was jailed in 2023 and convicted in July of espionage charges that he and the U.S. government vehemently denied. His family said in a statement released by the newspaper that “we can’t wait to give him the biggest hug and see his sweet and brave smile up close.” The paper’s editor-in-chief, Emma Tucker, called it a “joyous day.”“While we waited for this momentous day, we were determined to be as loud as we could be on Evan’s behalf. We are so grateful for all the voices that were raised when his was silent. We can finally say, in unison, ‘Welcome home, Evan,’” she wrote in a letter posted online.

Trump says on Fox News that US-Russia prisoner swap a 'win for Putin' -Former President Trump called this week’s massive prisoner exchange with Russia that freed Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former Marine Paul Whelan a victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin.“Well as usual, it was a win for Putin or any other country that deals with us. But we got somebody back, so I’m never going to be challenging that,” Trump told Maria Bartiromo of Fox Business Network in an interview recorded Thursday and broadcast Friday.“This deal that was made today, I think it’s wonderful that Evan’s coming back. I think it’s great. But these deals are so bad. These deals are going to lead to tremendous kidnappings,” he added.In total, two dozen people and seven countries were involved in Thursday’s prisoner exchange.Russia received eight prisoners who were being held abroad on various charges and released 16, many of whom were being wrongfully held or were severely sentenced for minor offenses.That included Gershkovich, who was arrested in Yekaterinburg in March 2023 and accused of collecting state secrets on the Russian military on behalf of the U.S. government. He became the first American journalist to be detained in Russia since the Cold War and was sentenced in July to 16 years in prison.It also included Whelan, who was arrested in 2018 while Trump was in office and later convicted of spying, charges that he, his family and the U.S. deny. He was sentenced to 16 years in prison.National security adviser Jake Sullivan said no money was exchanged as part of the deal, nor was there any agreement to loosen sanctions on Russia.Trump has routinely criticized the Biden administration for engaging in prisoner swaps and pointed to his own record of bringing home Americans held abroad.He had previously said he would free Gershkovich if he wins the election in November andclaimed as recently as July 20 that President Biden would not be able to get him out of prison.

Teacher Marc Fogel ‘left behind again’ in prisoner swap with Russia - A landmark prisoner exchange on Thursday brought home from Russia journalist Evan Gershkovich and former Marine Paul Whelan, among others, but the family of imprisoned American teacher Marc Fogel was not celebrating. Once again, they learned, he had not been included.“Today, Marc was left behind again,” Fogel’s wife and sons said in a statement urging the Biden administration to prioritize his release. “Marc has been unjustly detained for far too long and must be prioritized in any swap negotiations with Russia, regardless of his level of notoriety or celebrity.”Fogel, 63, was detained by Russian officials in August 2021 and charged with smuggling into the country a small amount of medical marijuana, which was prescribed in the United States for back pain but is banned in Russia. A Pittsburgh-area native, he was a teacher at the Anglo-American School of Moscow and spent 27 years teaching overseas in places such as Oman, Venezuela and Malaysia. He is serving a 14-year sentence, during which he has been teaching English to prisoners.Some lawmakers responded to Thursday’s news by emphasizing that Fogel must not be forgotten. The Biden administration stressed that efforts to secure the release of Americans imprisoned abroad, including Fogel, will continue.He is among several Americans who remain in Russia, a list that includes Gordon Black, a U.S. soldier convicted of threatening his Russian girlfriend; Ksenia Karelina, a dual U.S.-Russian citizen and aesthetician who was accused of donating $51.80 to a Ukrainian charity; and Michael Travis Leake, an American expatriate and musician who was convicted on drug charges.“As we celebrate the good news of today, we cannot forget about Marc and the Fogel family,” said Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.). “I urge everyone who fought to bring Evan and Paul home to now work to do the same for Marc.” Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.), who represents the district Fogel is from, saidhe was “saddened not only for Marc, but also for his 95-year-old mother, Malphine Fogel, and Marc’s family, who have been without him for more than 1,000 days.”

US, Japan to enhance military ties amid China's regional influence -- The U.S. and Japan announced a major new military command structure Sunday that aims to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region. U.S. Forces Japan will work more closely with Japanese troops under a Joint Force Headquarters reporting to the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, in close collaboration with Japan’s Joint Operations Command. This modernizing will shift more U.S. operations toward Japan and more closely integrate the forces of both nations. The transition will be the most significant for U.S. Forces Japan since the military branch was created in 1957. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken forged the agreement after a key meeting with their Japanese counterparts in Tokyo. At a Sunday press conference in Tokyo, Austin said the new military command structure was a “historic decision” and “one of the strongest improvements” in military ties with Japan in 70 years. “Japan’s new Joint Operations Command will further allow our forces to work together more closely than ever,” he said. “And these new operational capabilities and responsibilities will advance our collective deterrence.” Japan has emerged as one of the most important allies for the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific as Washington looks to curtail China in the region. Tokyo is moving to dramatically increase its defense spending and last year reached a historic pact with South Korea and the U.S. to form a trilateral alliance. The U.S. and Japan reaffirmed and strengthened their ties this week as they referred to China as the “greatest strategic challenge” in the region. Japanese Foreign Minister Yōko Kamikawa said there was a major challenge posed by China in the Indo-Pacific as Beijing threatens the self-governing island nation of Taiwan and the Philippines. “The outward stance of China, as well as its military actions, are of serious concern,” she said at the press conference, hailing the U.S. and Japan alliance as “indispensable.”

US, Japan Announce Steps To Strengthen Alliance in Buildup Aimed at China -The US and Japan have announced steps to strengthen their military alliance as part of a US-led buildup in the region aimed at China.Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin are visiting the region and held talks with their Japanese counterparts in Tokyo on Sunday. One step the four officials announced was a US plan toupgrade its command center in Japan.The overhaul of the command center will give US Forces Japan more authority to conduct joint operations with the Japanese military without having to go through US Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii.“The United States will upgrade the US Forces Japan to a joint force headquarters with expanded missions and operational responsibilities,” Austin told reporters. “This will be the most significant change to US Forces Japan since its creation and one of the strongest improvements in our military ties with Japan in 70 years.”Japan hosts more than 54,000 US troops, the largest foreign US military presence in the world. About 70% of US bases in Japan are in the Okinawa Prefecture, which accounts for only 0.6% of Japan’s territory. The people of Okinawa overwhelmingly want the US to reduce its military presence, but Washington and Tokyo are forcing a construction project to relocate a base against the wishes of the prefecture’s governor.The US and Japan also announced on Sunday plans to increase cooperation in developing weapons and for more joint training and military exercises. The US has been forming a trilateral military alliance with Japan and the Philippines, and the officials pledged to continue boosting that cooperation.“The Ministers supported increased bilateral and multilateral cooperation with the Philippines, including on maritime security and capacity building,” the US and Japanese officials said in a joint statement. Austin and Blinken are headed to the Philippines next and are expected to announce new US military support for Manila.The joint statement released by the US and Japan also labeled China as the “greatest strategic challenge in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond. They accused China of seeking to “reshape the international order for its own benefit at the expense of others.”While in Japan, Blinken held a separate meeting on Monday with foreign ministers from the Quad nations. The Quad is an informal military alliance formed by the US, Japan, India, and Australia. In a joint statement, the ministers hit out at China’s activity in the South and East China Seas.“We are seriously concerned about the situation in the East and South China Seas and reiterate our strong opposition to any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion,” the Quad ministers said.When asked about the Quad statement, China said it was the Quad countries that were stoking tensions in the region. “The Quad keeps chanting the slogan of a free and open Indo-Pacific, and all the while, it has been scaremongering, inciting antagonism and confrontation, and holding back other countries’ development,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian.“Some countries outside the region have frequently sent advanced military aircraft and vessels to the South China Sea to flex their muscles and create tension, and have formed various groupings and incited division and confrontation in the region, all of which make them the biggest threat and challenge to regional peace and stability,” Lin added.

US Announces $500 Million in New Military Aid for Philippines Amid China Tensions - On Tuesday, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced $500 million in new military aid for the Philippines while they were in Manila. Their visit comes amid soaring tensions with China in the region.According to a joint statement released by Austin, Blinken, and their Philippine counterparts, the $500 million is coming from the 2024 Indo-Pacific Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, which was tucked into the $95 billion foreign military aid bill President Biden signed into law in April.Blinken said at a press conference that the military aid will help “modernize the Filipino armed forces and coast guard.” The aid is being provided in the form of Foreign Military Financing, a State Department program that gives foreign governments money to buy US weapons.The US and the Philippines also announced other steps to boost military ties, including a pledge to conclude a new intelligence-sharing agreement by the end of the year and more US investment in military bases in the country. Last year, Washington and Manila signed a deal that gives the US access to four more bases in the Philippines, bringing the total number of US facilities in the country to nine. Blinken and Austin’s visit to the Philippines came after Manila and Beijing said they agreed to a deal to ease tensions in the South China Sea around Second Thomas Shoal, a Philippine-occupied reef that’s also claimed by China, Vietnam, and Taiwan. China and the Philippines have disputed the details of the agreement, signaling it may not last, and new US support could embolden Manila to push harder against Beijing’s claims.

North Korea mulling nuclear test around US election, South Korea warns - North Korea could be mulling a nuclear test around the U.S. election in November, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said in an interview published Sunday.“North Korea has completed preparations to conduct a nuclear test when a decision is made,” Shin told Bloomberg, in an interview in Tokyo on Sunday.“We cannot rule out the possibility of that decisive moment being right before or after the US presidential election to raise its leverage against the U.S.,” Shin added.The warning comes amid heightened tensions between North Korea and the allied countries of South Korea, Japan and the United States. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un has continued to expand his country’s nuclear arsenal, as he frequently warns against any increased cooperation between his rivals.Bloomberg reported over the weekend that the South Korean defense minister was in Tokyo to sign a deal with the U.S. and Japan to lock in new steps in their security cooperation, including joint military training.Earlier this month, President Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol authorized the signing of joint nuclear deterrence guidelines, which prompted Pyongyang to threaten to boost its own nuclear fighting capability, as it slammed the effort as revealing an intention to invade North Korea.Shin also told Bloomberg in the recent interview that North Korea may be emboldened to conduct nuclear tests because of increased cooperation with Russia.“We believe that Russia is providing technical support not just for rockets but for the modernization of conventional weapons that North Korea wants,” Shin told Bloomberg. “We will have to monitor with time how these technologies are transferred to North Korea and lead to changes in its weapons systems.”

9/11 terrorists' plea deal sparks criticism --A plea deal for the alleged mastermind of the 9/11 terror attacks and his two accomplices is being slammed by some families of the victims, New York City firefighters and high-profile Republicans. Critics say the agreement will effectively prevent the public from ever knowing what really happened, and contend that those most responsible for nearly 3,000 deaths deserve nothing less than death. Republicans are pointing their ire directly at President Biden and Vice President Harris — even though the White House said it played no role the negotiations. “The Biden-Harris Administration has done the unthinkable: they’ve agreed to a plea deal with Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the mastermind of the September 11th attacks, and two of his accomplices,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) wrote in a post on the social platform X. The deal with the Office of Military Commissions, announced Wednesday, includes a life sentence for Mohammad and the two others, Walid Muhammad Salih Mubarak bin Attash and Mustafa Ahmed Adam al-Hawsawi, in exchange for a guilty plea. All three are awaiting trial at the U.S. military prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, and had faced the death penalty. Two others held at Guantánamo Bay and charged with plotting the 9/11 attacks have not yet signed a plea deal. While the settlement brings partial closure to a case that has languished across two decades, many family members of those who died in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks are unsatisfied. The union representing New York City firefighters said its people are “disgusted and disappointed” with the arrangement. “On behalf of New York City firefighters, especially the survivors of the September 11th terrorist attack who are living with the illnesses and injuries that were inflicted upon us that day, we are disgusted and disappointed that these three terrorists were given a plea deal and allowed to escape the ultimate justice while each month three more heroes from the FDNY are dying from World Trade Center illnesses,” Andrew Ansbro, the president of the FDNY-Uniformed Firefighters Association, said in a statement Thursday. Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) called the agreement a “sweetheart deal” and directed blame at the Biden administration. “Now just think about the point that we’ve gotten to. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris have weaponized the Department of Justice to go after their political opponents, but they’re cutting a sweetheart deal with 9/11 terrorists,” Vance, former President Trump’s running mate, told attendees at a campaign rally in Glendale, Ariz., on Wednesday evening. “We need a president who kills terrorists, not negotiates with them.”

Lloyd Austin rescinds plea deal for accused plotters of 9/11 attacks - Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin revoked a plea deal Friday that would have taken the death penalty off the table for three prisoners accused of helping to plot the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Austin said in a news release that he believes that given the significance of the case, responsibility on what happens to the prisoners held at Guantanamo Bay “should rest with me as the superior authority under the Military Commissions Act of 2009.” Earlier this week, the Pentagon said an agreement had been reached with Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Walid Muhammad Salih Mubarak bin Attash and Mustafa Ahmed Adam al-Hawsawi. Under the plea deal, the three prisoners would have received life sentences. Retired Brig. Gen. Susan K. Escallier signed a pretrial agreement Wednesday. In the Friday memo, the Pentagon secretary wrote “effective immediately, in the exercise of my authority, I hereby withdraw from the three pretrial agreements that you signed on July 31, 2024.” The New York Times first reported the memo. Escallier’s approval of the plea deal drew blowback from some families of the victims, New York City firefights and high-profile Republicans. Some critics also said the agreement would prevent the public from ever knowing what really happened nearly 23 years ago. Republicans are directing their criticism at President Biden and Vice President Harris, even though the White House said it did not play a role in the negotiations. On Friday, Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), chair of the House Armed Services Committee, sent a letter to Austin demanding answers about the plea deal. He said he was “deeply shocked” by the agreement and said it was a “gut punch” to the families of victims.

US Accuses Venezuela of Election Manipulation After Maduro Victory, Threatens Sanctions - US officials on Monday accused Venezuela of election manipulation and suggested more sanctions could be imposed on the country after President Nicolas Maduro secured a third six-year presidential term.Venezuela’s election authority said Maduro won 51% of the vote while the leading opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, received 44%. The opposition is disputing the results, claiming that Gonzalez really won by a wide margin.Two US officials speaking to reporters called on the election authority to release a detailed breakdown of the vote.“I think what we would like to see happen next is have the National Electoral Council publish the detailed precinct-level results to see if they do in fact have the receipts that can both verify and justify the electoral results that they announced last night,” one of the officials said.The officials did not announce any new sanctions but said more could come. “We are faced with potentially a new scenario,” one official said. “We are going to take that into account as we map forward where we may head with respect to sanctions toward Venezuela.”The US rejected the results of Venezuela’s 2018 election and recognized opposition figure Juan Guaido as the “interim president” in 2019 despite Maduro being in power in Caracas. The Trump administration launched a regime change effort against Maduro that involved a failed coup and a ratcheting up of sanctions to a level that amounted to an economic embargo on Venezuela.John Bolton, Trump’s former national security advisor, recently acknowledged that the administration knew its sanctions campaign would cause suffering in Venezuela and contribute to migration out of the country.“There was no doubt the sanctions, along with the general economic deterioration before we imposed them, was driving a lot of people out of the country,” Bolton said. “That, to me, was a way to put pressure on the country.”

Kremlin Tells Venezuelan Opposition To 'Accept Defeat', Warns Against US Interference -The Kremlin on Tuesday issued a message to the Venezuelan opposition, saying it must accept that its candidate Edmundo Gonzalez lost the election that Nicolas Maduro has won a third term, after the results were certified by the country's National Electoral Council.No less than nine Latin American countries, including Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico have questioned the result or at least have shown some hesitancy to immediately recognize it. But Moscow has responded: "We see that the opposition does not want to accept its defeat. But we believe it must do so," according to the words of Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.Peskov further warned other global power against interfering in Venezuela's internal politics. The statement came within 24 hours of Maduro delivering a televised speech wherein he warned an externally-sponsored 'color revolution' is afoot."It's very important that attempts to sway the situation inside Venezuela are not fueled by third countries and that Venezuela is free from outside influence," Peskov said.Maduro's supporters are now calling for counter-protests at a moment some districts of Caracas have seen violence as police attempt to quell the protesting crowds, which have sought to get close to the presidential palace.China too has congratulated Maduro on another term in office, hailing that it further cements positive relations between Beijing and Caracas, which have in the past even conducted joint military drills. According to Chinese state-run Global Times, "Noting that China and Venezuela are good friends and partners, Lin said that China attaches great importance to the development of bilateral relations and is willing to work with Venezuela to continuously enrich the China-Venezuela all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership and bring more benefits to the two peoples." The report further highlighted that all of this is "disappointing news" for Washington while at the same time the official results are being fully welcomed by Russia and China.

US Rejects Venezuelan Election Results, Declares Opposition Candidate the Winner - On Thursday, the State Department said that Edmundo González Urrutia won Sunday’s presidential election. The Venezuelan government election agency announced that President Nicolas Maduro had won a third term.Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed that Urrutia won the election by an “insurmountable margin.” “The announcement of results by the Maduro-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) were deeply flawed, yielding an announced outcome that does not represent the will of the Venezuelan people,” America’s top diplomat said.Blinken’s statement continued, “Given the overwhelming evidence, it is clear to the United States and, most importantly, to the Venezuelan people that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election.”The Secretary explained his conclusion was drawn from a report from the Carter Center, named for former US President Jimmy Carter. Blinken asserted the institute was “independent.” However, the Carter Center isfunded by multiple US government agencies, including the State Department.Over the past two decades, Washington has made multiple attempts to overthrow Maduro, and his predecessor, Hugo Chavez. Under President Donald Trump, the White House backed Juan Guaido’s claim to the presidency in Caracas.Along with multiple coup attempts, the US has unleashed an economic war on Venezuela that has contributed to the people’s economic hardships. Washington’s sanctions have contributed to tens of thousands of deaths for impoverished Venezuelans.On Monday, the Venezuelan CNE reported that Maduro won a slight majority of votes, 51.2%, beating Urrutia by around 700,000 votes. While the US and Peru have denied these results, a number of other countries,including China, have endorsed Maduro’s victory.

Homeland Security funding bill sputters in Senate -- Senate negotiators are punting consideration of their full-year Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding bill as both sides work to find bipartisan agreement. The powerful Senate Appropriations Committee was set to consider the bill, along with four other full-year funding measures, on Thursday as it works to pass all 12 annual government funding bills. “Over the last few weeks, we have made serious progress writing strong, bipartisan funding bills—passing seven so far out of Committee with overwhelming bipartisan support,” Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), head of the committee, said in a Monday statement. “I look forward to keeping the momentum up on Thursday when we consider another four bills, and we will continue working toward a bipartisan agreement on the Homeland Security bill,” she added. Congress has roughly two months until a late-September government shutdown deadline. While the Senate has yet to pass any of its funding bills across the full floor, the House has so far passed five appropriations bills for fiscal 2025. But the House struggled to pass multiple other funding bills last week and began its recess a week early. The holdup around the annual DHS funding bill comes as no surprise — it was a key sticking point in spending talks earlier this year, following the collapse of a bipartisan border deal in the winter. Republicans have since ramped up attacks against Democrats on the border in the months leading up to the 2024 presidential election. Within days of Vice President Harris receiving the necessary support to become her party’s nominee, the GOP-led House passed a resolution condemning her as the Biden administration’s “border czar.”

Court Overturns Order To Remove Texas' Rio Grande Barrier ---The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit on Tuesday overturned a lower court’s decision requiring Texas to relocate a 1,000-foot floating barrier in the Rio Grande, installed to prevent illegal border crossings.The Fifth Circuit found that the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas had abused its discretion when it ordered Texas to relocate the buoys from the river last summer.Tuesday’s ruling permits the barrier system to temporarily remain in the river until a trial is held.The Justice Department sued Texas after the buoys were placed in the river in July 2023, alleging that the barrier was unlawful. The district court had previously granted a preliminary injunction directing Texas to move the barrier to the riverbank.Gov. Greg Abbott (R-Texas) appealed the ruling unsuccessfully, with a three-judge panel upholding the district court’s decision in a 2-1 opinion. But the full court later heard the case en banc, vacating the panel’s opinion and blocking the injunction pending appeal.On Tuesday, Circuit Judge Don R. Willett, joined by eight other judges, found that the district court had abused its discretion in issuing the preliminary injunction.“We hold that the district court clearly erred in finding that the United States will likely prove that the barrier is in a navigable stretch of the Rio Grande,” Willett wrote.“We cannot square the district court’s findings and conclusions with over a century’s worth of precedent, which on a fair and faithful reading renders inapplicable or unpersuasive the evidence on which the district court relies.”The appeals court said that a preliminary injunction should not be granted unless the requesting party meets all four necessary criteria: the likelihood of success on the merits, the likelihood of irreparable harm, the balance of equities in its favor, and alignment with the public interest.

US energy reform bill a ‘wishlist for the fossil industry’, say environmental groups --US senators should reject an energy-permitting reform bill being brought to committee on Wednesday by senators Joe Manchin and John Barrasso because it’s a “wishlist for the fossil industry” of the kind envisioned by Project 2025, environmental groups say.Manchin, a senator from West Virginia and a former Democrat who registered as an independent in May, and Barrasso, a Republican from Wyoming, argue their bill will speed permitting of power transmission, mining and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects. Their bill will be voted on by the Senate energy and natural resources committee, of which Manchin, a longtime proponent of the reforms, is the chair and Barrasso is the committee’s top Republican.The prospects of the bill becoming law, however, are uncertain given election-year politics and fierce opposition from environmental groups.Earthjustice described the legislation as an “egregious attempt to fulfill the wishlist of the fossil fuel industry, which is laid out in the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, under the guise of promoting renewable energy and developing transmission infrastructure”.A letter signed by about 360 environment groupsdescribed how environmentalists are concerned the legislation would force the Department of Energy to use outdated climate science and economic analysis, while ignoring any assessment of environmental justice impacts.“This legislation guts bedrock environmental protections, endangers public health, opens up tens of millions of acres of public lands and hundreds of millions of acres of offshore waters to further oil and gas leasing, gives public lands to mining companies, and would defacto rubberstamp gas export projects that harm frontline communities and perpetuate the climate crisis,” the letter said.The group Appalachian Voices said it was concerned that the legislation would reduce deadlines from challenges to energy projects “from six years to 150 days”. Chelsea Barnes, the group’s director of government affairs and strategy, said the bill “silences community voices by further eroding the National Environmental Policy Act”, adding that “all people deserve an opportunity to influence the development of energy projects in their communities”.Manchin and Barrasso say the bill would strengthen the power grid and help keep power prices low. Manchin called it a “commonsense, bipartisan piece of legislation that will speed up permitting and provide more certainty for all types of energy and mineral projects without bypassing important protections for our environment and impacted communities”.The bill gives companies more chances to bid on offshore oil and gas leasing between 2025 and 2029. In addition, the legislation sets a 90-day deadline for a secretary of energy to approve or deny liquefied natural gas export applications, which Barrasso said would “permanently end” Joe Biden’s pause on such approvals.

Biden administration replenishes oil reserve after Russia war drawdown -The Biden administration says it has replenished the 180 million barrels of oil it withdrew from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve in response to high prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Energy Department on Friday announced a 4.65 million barrel purchase, bringing the total purchased since the 2022 drawdown up to more than 40 million barrels. In addition, the administration has worked with Congress to cancel 140 million barrels in planned sales — accounting for the rest of the 180 million. “This milestone is a proof point that when the Biden-Harris Administration makes and implements a plan, we deliver for the American people,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in a written statement. “As promised, we have secured the 180 million barrels back to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve released in response to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s war in Ukraine – and we accomplished this while getting a good deal for taxpayers and maintaining the readiness of the world’s largest Strategic Petroleum Reserve,” she added. The department said that the 43.25 million barrels it purchased were procured at an average price of $77 per barrel, while the oil it sold in 2022 averaged $95 per barrel. The other 140 million barrels were essentially bought at $74 per barrel, a senior Energy Department official said.

Debunking Claims That The Biden Administration Has Replenished The SPR -- On July 29, multiple news outlets reported that the Biden Administration has replenished the 180 million barrels of oil it removed from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. One headline read “U.S. Restores SPR to pre-2022 Levels.” An article in The Hill reported:“The Biden administration says it has replenished the 180 million barrels of oil it withdrew from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve in response to high prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”It is absolutely false that the SPR has been replenished. In fact, here were the SPR levels as of July 19: The reporting seems to be a misreading of the following precisely-worded commentary by Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm:“As promised, we have secured the 180 million barrels back to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve released in response to Putin’s war in Ukraine – and we accomplished this while getting a good deal for taxpayers and maintaining the readiness of the world’s largest Strategic Petroleum Reserve.”Let’s review what’s happened here, because these comments have resulted in confused reports on the outcome. President Joe Biden inherited an SPR at 638 million barrels when he took office in January 2021. However, first in response to rising gasoline prices, and then as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Biden announced the most aggressive SPR drawdown in history.At its low point in July 2023, the SPR was drawn down by 288 million barrels, although some of that was due to congressionally-mandated sales. Since then, the Biden Administration has made a few purchases to put oil back in the SPR. But, as of the week ending July 19, SPR levels had only risen 27.7 million barrels from the low point. That is only 9.6% of the oil that was removed from the SPR.Today, the SPR is still 260.6 million barrels below the level it was when Joe Biden was inaugurated. There is an obvious disconnect in that and what is being reported.Here is the confusion explained. Secretary Granholm and the DOE said that they initially removed 180 million barrels in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This doesn’t account for all the oil that was removed since Biden took office, so that’s the first error in reports that it has been replenished to pre-2022 levels (which were >600 million barrels).But note the full context of the DOE press release, which wasn’t widely reported:“On top of the 140 million barrels of oil secured by working with Congress to cancel previously-mandated sales, this brings the total purchased or kept in the SPR since 2022 to 180 million barrels – the full amount sold following the unprecedented Russian war against Ukraine.”What exactly are they saying here? Well, the first thing they are doing is taking credit for barrels that have yet to be delivered. They have crafted a minor SPR purchase into creating an impression that they have replaced 180 million barrels of oil that were removed from the SPR.But the most important aspect of the story is that the DOE worked with Congress to cancel previously-mandated sales. So, it wasn’t that 140 million barrels were put back, they are saying they avoided depleting it by another 140 million barrels in the future.So, it is absolutely false that the SPR has been replenished to pre-2022 levels. This reporting is based on a misunderstanding of the DOE’s comments, which seem designed to imply that 180 million barrels were put back into the SPR.Today, the SPR remains over 40% below the level it was when Joe Biden took office, and it will remain at approximately that level through the election.

Senate majority leader sets vote on child tax credit expansion -- Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is teeing up a vote on the House’s bill to expand the child tax credit (CTC) later this week, potentially putting a cap on the Senate’s work before the monthlong August recess. A Schumer spokesperson announced that a procedural vote will take place on the $79 billion package later in the week. “The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act is good for kids, good for affordable housing, good for small businesses, and good for American families. This bipartisan bill passed the House overwhelmingly and we hope the Senate Republicans will join us,” Schumer said in a statement. The vote is expected to fail despite the widespread bipartisan vote in the House back in January. The lower chamber advanced it 357-70. The expansion of the child tax credit includes an incremental uptick of the $1,600 refundable cap and an adjustment for inflation. The proposal would also reinstate a number of tax breaks for businesses that were included in the GOP’s 2017 tax law, including research and experimental expensing and small-business expensing. The package was crafted by Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.). But it has consistently faced opposition from a horde of Senate GOP members. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a top ally of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), told reporters that he expects Republicans to largely stick together to block the bill. He also criticized Schumer for not making a concerted push to pass the legislative item. “Makes me wonder how sincere of an effort could this be if … we’re going to run out of time to give a bill adequate consideration,” Cornyn said. “I don’t expect it to go anywhere.” Senate Republicans have been calling for changes to the bill through an open amendment process. They also took issue with the bill’s uncoupling of the work requirement from the CTC. “We need a process that allows for some amendments to try to tweak and fix some of the issues,” Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) said in February shortly after it passed the House. Among those on the right who have also taken issue with the package are lawmakers from New York who are upset it did not include an increase in the state and local tax deduction. The vote would also come as lawmakers prepare to bolt town for more than a month as part of the annual August recess.

Senate to pass internet safety bill pushed by parents of kids who died by suicide --The Senate is expected to pass legislation Tuesday that is designed to protect children from dangerous online content, pushing forward with what would be the first major effort by Congress in decades to hold tech companies more accountable for the harm that they cause.The bill has sweeping bipartisan support and has been pushed by parents of children who died by suicide after online bullying. It would force companies to take reasonable steps to prevent harm on online platforms frequently used by minors, requiring them to exercise “duty of care” and ensure that they generally default to the safest settings possible.Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, who wrote the bill with Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, said the bill is about allowing children, teens and parents to take back control of their lives online, “and to say to big tech, we no longer trust you to make decisions for us.”The House has not yet acted on the bill, but Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has said he will look at the bill and try to find consensus. Supporters are hoping that a strong vote in the Senate — a test vote last week moved the bill forward on an 86-1 vote — would push the House to act.If the bill becomes law, companies would be required to mitigate harm to children, including bullying and violence, the promotion of suicide, eating disorders, substance abuse, sexual exploitation and advertisements for illegal products such as narcotics, tobacco or alcohol.To do that, social media platforms would have to provide minors with options to protect their information, disable addictive product features and opt out of personalized algorithmic recommendations. They would also be required to limit other users from communicating with children and limit features that “increase, sustain, or extend the use” of the platform — such as autoplay for videos or platform rewards.The idea, Blumenthal and Blackburn say, is for the platforms to be “safe by design.”As they have written the bill, the two senators have worked to find a balance in which companies would become more responsible for what children see online while also ensuring that Congress does not go too far in regulating what individuals post — an effort to appease lawmakers in both parties who worry regulation could impose on freedom of expression and also open up an eventual law to legal challenges.In addition to First Amendment concerns, some critics have said the legislation could harm vulnerable kids who wouldn’t be able to access information on LGBTQ+ issues or reproductive rights — although the bill has been revised to address many of those concerns, and major LGBTQ+ groups have decided to support the proposed legislation.The bill would be the first major tech regulation package to move in years. While there has long been bipartisan support for the idea that the biggest technology companies should face more government scrutiny, there has been little consensus on how it should be done. Congress passed legislation earlier this year that would force China-based social media company TikTok to sell or face a ban, but that law only targets one company.

Effort to patch VA budget shortfall sees conservative resistance - Senate conservatives are showing early resistance to expediting legislation to address a roughly $3 billion budget shortfall for the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), as officials warn millions of veterans’ benefits are at risk in the coming weeks. Some senators had been hopeful of passing the bipartisan bill this week amid growing concern over the shortfall. However, the effort is getting pushback from some conservatives, as Republicans have raised scrutiny over the issue. “When we spend billions of dollars, we should ask, you know, are controls in place that’s being spent wisely. Where was it spent?” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) told The Hill on Tuesday afternoon. “We gave them record amounts of dollars, was it gone.” “So, somebody made bad decision making or bad management, so all that needs to be discussed and worked through, and that’s why I would never let it go through without a discussion,” he said. The VA has said it needs Congress to provide about $2.9 billion “in mandatory benefits funds” for the fiscal year ending in late September, as well as about $12 billion for medical care for the following fiscal year. The agency has cited the PACT Act, passed in 2022, as the key driver behind the shortfall, pointing to increases in enrollment in VA healthcare, appointments and applications benefits. Senators have discussed the prospect of expediting passage of the legislation, which addresses the nearly $3 billion shortfall, before they leave for August recess this week. But that process, also known as “unanimous consent,” can also be held up if a single senator opposes passage. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) also said he has a hold on the bill, while pressing for a hearing. “I just want to know why? Don’t send a letter over saying, ‘We need $3 billion.’ Let us know why you need it. Let us ask questions on both sides. It’s only fair,” he said on Wednesday afternoon, though he added he is supportive overall of providing the funding to address the shortfall. The sentiment comes as more have also sounded alarm over the issue. “The problem is that if we don’t get this solved very quickly, it could start affecting benefits in October and so I’m very worried about it,” said Sen. Susan Collins (Maine), top Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee, which crafts all 12 annual government funding bills. “I’m also incredibly frustrated with the VA, because they had to know that they were underfunding these accounts, and I just don’t buy the argument that they had no idea that’s what’s going to happen,” she said. “That’s just not possible.”

Drug companies confident Medicare price deals won’t hit bottom lines --Top executives of drug companies suing to stop the Biden administration’s Medicare price negotiation law are telling shareholders and analysts the final price offers won’t materially impact their companies’ respective bottom lines.The comments from executives of companies including Pfizer, Bristol Myers Squibb, Johnson & Johnson and AbbVie suggest the price cuts won’t be as steep as many in the industry initially feared. But the executives were still adamant Medicare price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which end Thursday, will throttle innovation in the long run and expressed hope that a new administration — or industry lawsuits — will end the policy. The IRA law “is a very big loss for innovation and for the crown jewel of American industry, which is the life science technology business,” said Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla on Tuesday. “But it is what it is. It is the law of the land. And we are doing our best to make sure that we minimize any impact, particularly in the future.” The companies that manufacture the 10 drugs eligible for price negotiations have been exchanging offers with the federal government since February. While the official end of the negotiation period is Aug. 1, the companies indicated they already have final offers in hand. The settled prices will be publicly announced by Sept. 1, and will take effect in 2026. The first 10 drugs selected for negotiation accounted for $3.4 billion in out-of-pocket costs for an estimated 9 million Medicare enrollees in 2022, according to the Biden administration. The law requires small-molecule drugs like pills to have been on sale for at least nine years. The figure is 13 years for biologic drugs, which are often injected or infused. “Now that we have seen the final price, we’re increasingly confident in our ability to navigate the impact of IRA on Eliquis,” Chris Boerner, CEO of Bristol Myers Squibb, said during a July 26 earnings call with analysts.

West Virginia asks Supreme Court to allow Medicaid to deny coverage for gender-affirming surgery -- West Virginia will take its fight over whether its Medicaid program must cover gender-affirming surgeries to the Supreme Court, the state’s Republican attorney general announced Thursday. “Once again, the state of West Virginia is going to the U.S. Supreme Court,” Attorney General Patrick Morrisey said at a news conference in Bridgeport, W.Va. The announcement is the latest development in a legal battle that’s been ongoing since 2020, when three transgender men alleged in a class-action lawsuit that West Virginia’s refusal to cover transition surgeries violates federal antidiscrimination laws. A federal judge in 2022 ordered the state to cover the procedures, a decision the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed in April. In the 4th Circuit ruling, Judge Roger Gregory, an appointee of former President Clinton, wrote that West Virginia’s exclusion — as well as a similar North Carolina policy — is “obviously discriminatory” and violates the Medicaid Act and the Affordable Care Act. Morrisey and other state officials maintain West Virginia’s policy barring coverage of gender-affirming surgeries reflects cost concerns, not an antitransgender animus. “We’re not a rich state. We can’t afford to do everything, and that’s one of the challenges that we have with this mandate. There’s only so much money to go around, and spending money on some treatments necessarily takes it away from others,” Morrisey, who is running for governor of the state, said Thursday. “Our state’s Medicaid program made a reasonable decision to reserve scarce funding for medically necessary treatments, not elective surgeries,” he said, adding that the decision was made to ensure adequate resources for people with heart disease, diabetes and other medical conditions. Major medical organizations argue gender-affirming care is medically necessary, though not every trans person chooses to transition medically or has access to care. In April, Shauntae Anderson, a transgender woman and plaintiff in the class-action lawsuit challenging West Virginia’s Medicaid exclusion, said her state’s refusal to cover gender-affirming surgeries is “deeply dehumanizing” and needlessly restricts access to essential health care. Morrisey, whose run for governor is endorsed by former President Trump, continues to veer to the right on transgender issues, often referring to transgender women as “men” andcapitalizing on misinformation surrounding gender-affirming health care in campaign ads. Thursday’s appeal to the Supreme Court, he said, could have national significance. “This is a case that we think should be heard by the U.S. Supreme Court because it’s interpreting a major federal law, the Medicaid Act, and it presents a nationally important constitutional question: whether Medicaid or any state-related insurance program must cover all transgender care,” Morrisey said Thursday.

Some OB-GYNs may not be getting abortion training, House Dems say --Health providers have seen an increase in pregnant patients suffering from serious medical complications due to delayed care in the two years since Roe v. Wade was overturned, according to a new report from House Democrats.But, at the same time, OB-GYN residents in states with abortion restrictions are receiving less training to perform abortions. The report was released late Thursday by Democrats on the House Energy and Commerce Committee and is the culmination of an investigation launched in September 2023. It was based on interviews committee staff conducted with OB-GYN educators and residents from 20 programs to learn how the ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization has impacted the study and practice of obstetrics and gynecology. “What we found was deeply disturbing. The Dobbs decision has created chaos and confusion for OB-GYNs and their patients,” Rep. Frank Pallone Jr. (D-N.J.), the committee’s ranking member, said in a statement. The report also found that abortion training for residents in states that restrict or ban the procedure has been practically eliminated in some cases, even though certain skills are the same as those required to treat pregnancy complications. In other cases, training has been limited to simulations and textbooks in lieu of observing an abortion firsthand, forcing residents to travel out-of-state to learn the skills needed for their practice. That in turn causes strain on the capacity and resources of programs in states where abortion is protected, the report found. Prior to the Dobbs decision, residency programs often partnered with abortion clinics to provide training if state laws prohibited it from being taught. But in many states with abortion bans, those clinics have been forced to close. “I fear that over time the stark differences in training between OB-GYNs in protective and restrictive states will effectively create two different pools of OB-GYNs with entirely different sets of training, knowledge, and ways of caring for their patients,” Pallone said.

Florida's abortion protection amendment leads poll --Florida’s ballot initiative to protect abortion is winning and has more support among voters than either Vice President Harris or Democratic Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a new poll shows. According to the poll from University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL), 69 percent of respondents said they would vote for Amendment 4, which would prohibit laws from restricting or banning abortion until fetal viability. Constitutional amendments in Florida need 60 percent of the vote to become law. “We have yet to see campaigns on either side of this really get moving,” PORL faculty director and political science professor Michael Binder said in a statement. “Factor in the highly contested and contentious financial impact statement recently added to the ballot summary, and I would expect to see support for this amendment drop before November.” The amendment has faced headwinds from state officials, even after Florida’s Supreme Court greenlighted it for the ballot in May. Most recently, amendment backers Floridians Protecting Freedom challenged what they said was a politically biased financial impact statement. The state Supreme Court has scheduled expedited hearings in the challenge. The poll also showed an amendment to legalize recreational cannabis has enough support to pass, with 64 percent of respondents supporting it. The poll of 774 Floridians who said that they were either definitely or probably voting in the coming election was conducted between July 24 and July 27. The overall margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. If the presidential election were held today, 49 percent of respondents said they would vote for former President Trump, while 42 percent said Harris. Four percent said they would vote for another candidate, and 6 percent were either undecided or refused to answer.

Federal Trade Commission to probe stubbornly high grocery prices -Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chair Lina Khan said Thursday her agency will investigate the high cost of groceries in the United States as chain supermarkets bring in “enormous profits.”Khan noted at a joint FTC and Department of Justice public meeting that the cost of groceries “skyrocketed during the pandemic, due in large part to the higher costs and supply chain disruptions.”“But we also know that in the years since, costs have fallen, and supply chains have improved,” she said. “Many items though, are still too costly, and many large grocery chains are still raking in enormous profits. The FTC is determined to understand why. To make sure we can do so, I’ll be asking [the] commission to join me in launching an inquiry into grocery prices, to shed light on why it is that prices and profits remain so high, even as costs appear to have come down.”A report the FTC released earlier this year highlighted margin expansion as a major factor in stubbornly high prices for groceries.“Some firms seem to have used rising costs as an opportunity to further hike prices to increase their profits, and profits remain elevated even as supply chain pressures have eased. Larger retailers and wholesalers with considerable leverage over their suppliers were able to take more aggressive action to protect themselves,” FTC researchers stated.The consumer price index, one common measure of inflation, went down for the first time since the pandemic in June, according to data released last month.

Justice Department sues TikTok over alleged children's privacy law violations - The Department of Justice sued TikTok and its parent company ByteDance on Friday for allegedly violating children’s online privacy law. The agency accused the popular social media app of allowing children younger than 13 years to create accounts, collecting data on those children and failing to comply with parents’ requests to delete the accounts and information. TikTok’s actions would violate the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA), as well as a 2019 settlement agreement with the app then known as Musical.ly, according to the lawsuit. “To put an end to TikTok’s unlawful massive-scale invasions of children’s privacy, the United States brings this lawsuit seeking injunctive relief, civil penalties, and other relief,” the filing reads. The Justice Department alleges that TikTok “knowingly allowed children under 13 to create accounts” on the platform and “collected extensive personal information” without notifying their parents or getting their consent. When parents have asked TikTok to delete their children’s accounts and the associated data, the lawsuit claims that the company obstructed and failed to comply with these requests. “Parents must navigate a convoluted process to figure out how to request deletion of their child’s account and information,” the DOJ alleged, adding, “Even if a parent succeeded in submitting a request to delete their child’s account and information, [TikTok] often did not honor that request.” The lawsuit followed an investigation by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), which in 2019 filed a consent order against TikTok for previous alleged COPPA violations. “TikTok knowingly and repeatedly violated kids’ privacy, threatening the safety of millions of children across the country,” FTC Chair Lina Khan said. “The FTC will continue to use the full scope of its authorities to protect children online—especially as firms deploy increasingly sophisticated digital tools to surveil kids and profit from their data.” In a statement, TikTok said “We disagree with these allegations, many of which relate to past events and practices that are factually inaccurate or have been addressed.” “We are proud of our efforts to protect children, and we will continue to update and improve the platform. To that end, we offer age-appropriate experiences with stringent safeguards, proactively remove suspected underage users, and have voluntarily launched features such as default screentime limits, Family Pairing, and additional privacy protections for minors,” the company continued.

US appeals court blocks Biden student debt plan -On July 18, the 8th US Circuit Court of Appeals, based in St Louis, granted an emergency motion for an administrative stay filed by the state of Missouri and six other Republican-led states against the Biden administration’s Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan, blocking it. The plan would have lowered monthly payments for some of the millions of Americans paying off student loans. Republicans made an appeal to the Supreme Court to strike the plan altogether in Alaska v. Cardona, filed July 9 by three Republican-led states, Alaska, Texas and South Carolina. The case is on the Court’s “shadow docket” which contains emergency motions and other matters the court can decide on rapidly. Student loan forgiveness is overwhelmingly popular, with 7 in 10 voters supporting action and 50 percent supporting partial or complete loan cancellation, according to a March 2024 poll by research and consulting firm SocialSphere, which was released by Protect Borrowers Action, an advocacy group. This court action follows a ruling last month by US District Judge John A. Ross in St Louis that partially blocked the US Department of Education from granting any further loan forgiveness under SAVE. SAVE was announced in 2022 by Biden alongside a broader $430 billion plan, which would have canceled up to $20,000 in debt for up to 43 million borrowers. The latter was blocked by the US Supreme Court in June 2023 in Biden v. Nebraska after facing a number of challenges by right-wing federal courts. The SAVE plan has already been partially implemented, with eight million enrolled and 4.5 million of those enrolled having had monthly payments eliminated. The Education Department said it had already granted $5.5 billion to 414,000 borrowers. This calculates to about 0.3 percent of the $1.75 trillion in student debt. According to the White House’s estimates, the plan could benefit over 20 million borrowers. SAVE would allow those who originally borrowed less than $12,000 and have been paying for at least 10 years to cancel remaining student debt. Debtors are required to pay at a rate of at least 10 percent of their “discretionary” income under current plans, with SAVE reducing it to 5 percent in order to cancel their remaining student debt balance. The discretionary income is defined as household income minus 150 percent of the federal poverty guidelines for family size and location. Those with incomes of less than $32,800, or less than $67,500 for a household of four, would be exempt from loan payments. The program is a somewhat more generous re-hash of a previous program, REPAYE, that forgives a borrower’s balance after 20 or 25 years of payments. For every thousand dollars over the $12,000 figure, one year is added to the length of time which one must wait until it is possible to have the debt discharged. The maximum, or “cap,” for this length is 20 years for those with undergraduate loans, and 25 years for those with graduate loans. Half of undergraduates graduate with $29,400 in student loan debt, according to the College Board. Experian puts the average balance for all student loan borrowers at $38,787 upon graduation. For both the average undergraduate and graduate degree debt holder, this would put them in their respective cap categories, requiring them to work around a quarter or a third of their remaining life to reach “forgiveness” for their student loans.

Biden unveils reform proposals for 'extreme' Supreme Court --President Biden railed against “extreme opinions” at the Supreme Court as he announced major court reform proposals during a Monday speech at the LBJ Presidential Library. “I have great respect for our institutions, the separation of powers laid out in our Constitution,” Biden said. “What’s happening now is not consistent with that doctrine of separation of powers. Extremism is undermining the public confidence in the court’s decisions.” Biden used his remarks to warn in stark terms the dangers of an “extreme” and polarized court, arguing it would undo civil rights protections and grant excessive powers to future presidents. He cited a slew of recent Supreme Court opinions that he said “have undermined long established civil rights principles and protections.” He pointed to the 2013 Shelby County case that gutted aspects of the Voting Rights Act; the 2022 ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade; the 2023 ruling that ended affirmative action; and this year’s ruling that granted wide immunity to presidents for official acts taken while in office. “This nation was founded on the principle there are no kings in America,” Biden said. “Each of us legally follows the law. No one is above the law. For all practical purposes, the court’s decision almost certainly means that a president can violate their oath, flout our laws and face no consequences.” The speech came hours after Biden announced in an op-ed a three-part proposal to reform the Supreme Court. The president called for term limits for justices, a binding code of ethics and a constitutional amendment to counteract the justices’ recent presidential immunity decision. It marked a major shift for the president, who had long resisted calls from the left for reform. Biden’s speech on Monday also served to mark the 60th anniversary of former President Johnson signing into law the Civil Rights Act of 1964. The event was attended by Johnson’s daughter, Lynda Robb, and many Democratic lawmakers, including Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) and Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.). During his remarks, Biden delivered some of his most direct condemnations to date of the court’s ethics controversies, describing “obvious conflicts of interest.” The recent scandals include reports of conservative Justice Clarence Thomas accepting luxury trips and gifts from a billionaire and Republican mega-donor, though the controversies have implicated justices in both ideological camps. Biden said the court is “not self-policing” as he attacked the court’s ethics code that it released in November with no enforcement mechanism. “The Supreme Court’s current ethics code is weak, and even more frightening, voluntary,” he said. He also argued for 18-year term limits for justices. Such limits would make appointments more predictable, Biden said, and would prevent a single president from drastically reshaping the court, a thinly veiled nod to former President Trump’s appointment of three conservative justices during his four years in office. “That would help ensure the country would not have what it has now: an extreme court that’s the product of an attack on the confirmation process that’s weaponized by those seeking to carry out an extreme agenda for decades to come,” Biden said. The push is widely viewed as something of a big swing to cement Biden’s legacy after he announced earlier this month he would not seek reelection. Vice President Harris on Monday said she supported the president’s proposal, and, like Biden, the vice president does not support expanding the court, a spokesperson for her campaign told The Hill. White House officials acknowledged his reform proposals face long odds to becoming reality as they would require congressional action, but suggested public support for Supreme Court reform would help create pressure on Congress to act. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) earlier Monday called Biden’s proposal “dead on arrival.”

Biden proposes token Supreme Court reforms, knowing they are doomed - In a speech delivered Monday from the Lyndon Baines Johnson Library and Museum in Austin, Texas, outgoing President Joe Biden proposed a series of Supreme Court reforms aimed at restoring legitimacy to the corrupt and widely despised United States Supreme Court. “In recent years, extreme opinions that the Supreme Court has handed down have undermined long established civil rights and protections,” Biden said. “What is happening now is not normal, and it undermines the public’s confidence in the court’s decisions,” Biden warned, “including those impacting personal freedoms.” “Most recently and most shockingly, the Supreme Court established in Trump v. United States a dangerous precedent,” he continued. By instituting his proposals, Biden promised to “restore trust and accountability to the court and our democracy.” Throughout his rambling, and at times incoherent remarks, Biden attempted to present the Democratic Party as a vessel capable of defending democratic rights against the “extremist” Republicans. This is, in fact, becoming an increasingly difficult sell. In the lead-up to, and following the January 6 coup, Biden and the Democrats did everything in their power to cover up the danger of dictatorship in the United States. [...] Biden’s speech was originally scheduled to be delivered on July 15. At that time, he was still the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. However, he was unable to make the trip after falling ill from COVID-19 for a third time. Now, less than 100 days before the 2024 election, Trump is tied or leading in national polls against Vice President Kamala Harris, recently installed to replace the rapidly deteriorating Biden at the head of the Democratic ticket. Biden’s three reform proposals, which were laid out in a Washington Post editorial published the same day, include 18-year term limits for the nine judges and an enforceable code of ethics, which would require justices to publicly disclose the numerous and expensive “gifts” they receive from their billionaire patrons. Biden also proposed overturning the July 1 Trump v. United States Supreme Court decision through a constitutional amendment dubbed the “No One Is Above the Law Amendment.” The amendment would state that the Constitution does not grant any federal criminal immunity to former presidents. None of Biden’s proposals, which would require broad support from Republicans, will be enacted in the near or even distant future. The process of amending the Constitution requires broad bipartisan support across Congress and state legislatures. An amendment is agreed to after a two-thirds majority vote in the House and the Senate, or a constitutional convention called by two-thirds of the state legislatures. Once the amendment is agreed upon by either Congress or a constitutional convention, it must be ratified by three quarters, or 38 out of 50, states.

Bill Barr: Joe Biden's reforms would purge Supreme Court's conservative justices -- Former Attorney General Bill Barr offered his concerns about President Biden’s reform proposals for the Supreme Court on Monday, arguing they would eliminate the high court’s conservative justices and “destroy the independence of the judiciary.” “Americans need to understand that the campaign to radically change the Court is coming. While current proposals like term limits for the longest-serving justices and an imposed code of ethics threaten the Constitution and the separation of powers, the far left is demanding that Court be packed with additional liberal justices,” Barr and Kelly Shackelford — the president, CEO and chief counsel for First Liberty Institute — wrote in an op-ed published with Fox News on Monday.Barr and Shackelford said such changes will become reality if the eventual Democratic presidential nominee — likely Vice President Harris — wins in November.“If they win, that is exactly what will happen, and it only takes a majority vote and the signature of the President,” they wrote, pointing to a comment from Harris, who reportedly has said she is “open” to a conversation about increasing the number of justices on the Supreme Court.Biden released his own op-ed in The Washington Post on Monday morning, endorsing broad reforms to the nation’s highest court.His threefold proposal includes 18-year term limits for the nine justices, which would enable the sitting president to appoint a new justice every two years, and a binding code of conduct.The proposals signal a significant shift for Biden, who has typically resisted progressives’ calls for Supreme Court reforms over concerns it would politicize the bench. Harris said Monday she backs Biden’s plan.Barr’s op-ed pointed to comments made by then-Sen. Biden in 1983, during which he argued changing the court’s structure was a “bonehead idea.” “He was right. The last thing we need in this country right now is a Supreme Court coup that would threaten our democratic republic,” the op-ed stated. Echoing the sentiments from many Republicans, who are steadfastly opposed to Supreme Court reform, Barr and Shackelford accused the left of attempting to “take over” the bench due to anger over some of its recent decisions. Biden has increasingly criticized the court, especially after it overturned constitutional abortion protections and granted some criminal immunity for presidents. “The left is just upset by a small number of cases with which they disagree, and they are willing to take down the Court and the rule of law to get their way,” Barr and Shackelford stated in the op-ed. “The Supreme Court is the only branch of government that stands in the way of one-party rule.” The op-ed painted a grim picture for what “court packing” could look life, suggesting civil and religious liberties will be limited and First Amendment rights for the left’s political opponents would be “trampled.” “In truth, ‘court reform’ is nothing more than a desperate attack to subvert the legitimacy of the Supreme Court because it contains a majority of justices committed to the Constitution and originalism,” Barr and Shackelford wrote. “If this coup succeeds, the rule of law will be over as the judiciary will become little more than a political tool of whomever holds power.”

Trump Says US Should Wipe Iran 'Off the Face of the Earth' If He's Assassinated - Former President Donald Trump said in a post on his social media site Truth Social that the US should wipe Iran “off the face of the earth” if he’s ever assassinated.After the assassination attempt on Trump, CNN reported that the US had intelligence from a single “human source” that Iran was plotting to kill him. The report offered no evidence, and Iran strongly denied the accusation. But that hasn’t stopped Iran hawks from using the claim to advance their agendas.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeated the claim during his address to Congress. In his post on Truth Social, Trump included a video of Netanyahu saying, “We recently learned” that Iran was threatening to kill the former president.“If they do ‘assassinate President Trump,’ which is always a possibility, I hope that America obliterates Iran, wipes it off the face of the Earth — If that does not happen, American Leaders will be considered ‘gutless’ cowards!” Trump wrote.Trump made the post ahead of his Friday meeting with Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida. During Netanyahu’s visit to the resort, Trump denied rumors that his relationship with the Israeli leader ever soured. “We’ve always had a great relationship,” Trump told reporters,according to The Associated Press. “It was never bad.”According to a readout of the meeting put out on Trump’s official website, Netanyahu thanked the former president for steps he took during his time in office, including the assassination of Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani, which brought the US and Iran to the brink of war.

Snipers noticed Crooks 90 minutes before Donald Trump shooting --Security at former President Trump’s Butler, Pa., rally first noticed the man who later shot at Trump more than 90 minutes before shots were fired, according to texts among law enforcement working the event.The texts, obtained by The Hill and first reported by The New York Times, add to criticism of the Secret Service’s handling of the event.A local countersniper first noticed gunman Thomas Matthew Crooks at 4:26 p.m., just more than an hour and a half before he climbed onto a nearby roof and shot at Trump, nicking his ear, killing a supporter in the crowd and injuring two others.The officer, who was clocking out of his shift, notified colleagues about a suspicious man sitting at a picnic table near their lookout point via text, describing Crooks as having “snuck in” parked alongside officers’ cars.Additional texts at about 5:40 p.m. show officers discussing that they should inform Secret Service after Crooks was spotted again, this time using a range finder. Photos included in the messages show Crooks at the event and also note a bike and a backpack spotted near the scene.“Call it in to command and have a uniform check it out,” the text reads.The series of security failures that allowed Crooks to get into position to shoot Trump has shocked Congress, sparking a House investigation as well as an independent probe. Secret Service Director Kimberley Cheatle resigned from her post last week after being grilled by the House Oversight and Accountability Committee about the attempted assassination.Police on scene were unable to find Crooks again after being made aware of his presence near the building he later climbed. Just after Trump took the stage at 6:03 p.m., members of the crowd pointed out a suspicious man on a nearby rooftop.FBI Director Christopher Wray testified last week that a local Butler police officer was then boosted onto the roof to confront Crooks, but was met with a gun being pointed at him. With no free hands to grab his own gun and fire back, he dropped to avoid being shot. Just “seconds” later, Wray said, Crooks fired eight rounds towards Trump. He was quickly shot and killed by a Secret Service countersniper team.The FBI announced Monday that it would be speaking with Trump about the shooting, something the bureau described as a “standard victim interview.”A motive for the shooting is unknown, though investigators found that Crooks had searched for multiple possible targets before deciding on Trump, including President Biden. It is believed hesuffered from a depressive disorder.The FBI shared Monday that Crooks had used an alias both to purchase firearm-related items as well as chemicals needed to create the explosive devices later found in his car. He also researched other assassinations, including that of President Kennedy and the failed assassination attempt on the Slovakian prime minister.The new details move back the timeline for when Crooks was first spotted, which was previously believed to be about an hour before the shooting.

New Evidence Refutes FBI Testimony That Trump Shooter Is Far-Right, Anti-Immigrant A top FBI official made a point of testifying that President Trump’s would-be assassin Thomas Matthew Crooks may have espoused far-right extremist viewpoints on an unnamed social media account five years ago, but forgot to mention that Crooks may have shared pro-Biden viewpoints on Gab more recently. Both accounts have not yet been fully verified as belonging to Crooks. FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate told senators on Capitol Hill Tuesday that a social media account believed to be Crooks’ appears to have shared antisemitic, anti-immigrant, and “extreme in nature” posts in 2019 and 2020. Crooks would have been 14 to 15-years-old in that time frame. “There were over 700 comments posted from this account,” Abbate testified before a joint Senate Judiciary Committee and Homeland Security Committee hearing entitled “Examination of the Security Failures Leading to the Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump.” “Some of these comments, if ultimately attributable to the shooter, appear to reflect antisemitic and anti-immigration themes to espouse political violence and are described as extreme in nature,” Abbate added.The deputy director said while the FBI was still verifying that the account belonged to Crooks, the Bureau felt it was important to detail the social account’s nature because of the “general absence of other information” establishing Crooks’ “motive and mindset.” GAB CEO Andrew Torba, however, shared plenty of information on X last week about a GAB account the FBI appeared to believe was Crook’s, saying the content of the posts “UNEQUIVOCALLY” reflected a “pro-Biden and in particular pro-Biden immigration policy.” The Gab founder said on July 24, he received an Emergency Disclosure Request (EDR) from the FBI for the Gab account “EpicMicrowave,” and said based on the request, the FBI appeared to believe the account was associated with Crooks.

Acting Secret-Service Chief Played Key Role In Limiting Resources For Trump --Acting Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe was directly involved in denying additional security resources and personnel, including counter snipers, to former President Trump’s rallies and events – despite repeated requests by the agents assigned to Trump’s detail in the two years leading up to his July 13 attempted assassination, according to several sources familiar with the decision-making.Rowe succeeded former Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle, who resigned last week after bipartisan calls following her widely panned testimony before the House Oversight Committee. But both Rowe and Cheatle were directly involved in decisions denying requests for more magnetometers, additional agents, and other resources to help screen rallygoers at large, outdoor Trump campaign gatherings.It was Rowe’s decision alone to deny counter sniper teams to any Trump event outside of driving distance from D.C., these sources asserted.Rowe and FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate are set to appear Tuesday before a joint hearing of the Senate Judiciary and Homeland Security and Government Affairs committees.Senators on both sides of the aisle have vowed to press for answers on the assassination attempt of former President Trump that took the life of rally-goer Corey Comperatore and wounded two others. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, who chairs the Homeland Security panel, said he plans to grill Rowe and Abbate on the “litany of gaps and failures.”“There are monumental, critical questions that so far the leadership in these two agencies have failed to answer [for, and] even to begin to respond to,” Blumenthal said.Sen. Ron Johnson, a senior member of the Homeland Security committee, told RCP he was initially impressed by Rowe’s willingness to answer senators’ questions late last week but pledged to question him closely about the denying of resources to protect Trump.“I will also hold him fully accountable for being 100% transparent and honest in cooperating with our investigation and oversight,” Johnson said Thursday.

Democrats Vs. The Man Who Could Get To The Bottom Of The Trump Shooting - After the evasive House testimony of now-former Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle and FBI Director Christopher Wray’s shortlived suggestion that Donald Trump may not have been hit by a bullet, one man alone may help allay Republican fears that the Biden administration will not conduct a forthright investigation into the attempted assassination of Trump last month: Joseph Cuffari. The Trump-appointed inspector general for the Department of Homeland Security has already opened two investigations into the U.S. Secret Service, which is under the purview of the DHS, related to the agency’s handling of the July 13 shooting. But some Republicans are concerned because, they say, Cuffari has been stonewalled by Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on other internal examinations – including one that might have revealed Secret Service lapses that might have prevented the attempt on Trump’s life. Specifically, congressional sources tell RCI that Cuffari’s report, “USSS Preparation for and Response to the Events of January 6, 2021,” has been on Mayorkas’ desk since at least April.The report, according to Politico, will “cast light on a series of embarrassing security lapses for the agency.” And given some comparisons between Jan. 6 and July 13, the report might shed light on systemic issues that impacted both events.For example, unanswered questions remain as to why the Secret Service allowed Trump to take the stage at The Ellipse outside the White House around noon on Jan. 6 amid reports of individuals with weapons in the vicinity – a question many Americans have about the July 13 assassination attempt. Law enforcement and spectators noted the presence of a suspicious individual, later identified as the gunman, Thomas Matthew Crooks, at least a half hour before Trump took the stage in Butler, Pennsylvania.In addition, no one has explained how the Secret Service failed to notice an alleged pipe bomb found outside the Democrat National Committee DC office on Jan. 6 – while then Vice President-elect Harris was inside the building. Previous reporting by RCI shows multiple law enforcement officers, including one with a bomb-sniffing dog, walking past the bench where the device was found. Rep. Barry Loudermilk, chairman of a House subcommittee tasked with a separate investigation into Jan. 6 as well as the now-defunct J6 committee, recently accused Mayorkas of intentionally holding the release of the report. The Georgia Republican told Mayorkas in a letter that “the failure to provide an in-depth review of the department’s security planning and operational failures related to January 6 not only raises concerns about the department’s botched planning for former president Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania on July 13, 2024, but it is quite possible that such reports could have prevented the security breakdown that resulted in the near assassination of a former president and presidential candidate.”

Harris vs. Trump: What the early post-Biden polls tell us -- President Biden’s historic announcement that he was dropping out of the 2024 race has shaken up a race that had mostly stayed static until the past month.Polls have begun to trickle out in the days since Biden’s decision, offering clues to what a contest between Vice President Harris, the likely Democratic nominee, and former President Trump will look like.Overall, they have shown good news for Harris and the Democrats. In several polls, Harris has performed at least somewhat better than Biden did against Trump before the incumbent stepped aside. But election forecasts remain offline while analysts recalibrate their models for a new match-up, meaning time is needed to better understand what these numbers signify for November.Scott Tranter, the director of data science for Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), said he could make an argument that either Trump or Harris is in the preferable position in the race, underscoring how up in the air the race is.“I could probably give you one or two good points, case for either of them, and that’s the mark of a true 50-50 race,” he said.In the weeks leading up to Biden’s calamitous debate with Trump just over a month ago, the general trend for polls had been the two candidates locked in a tight match-up nationally, with Trump arguably ahead slightly. He had a clearer advantage across the roughly half-dozen battleground states that will likely decide the winner of the election. That began to shift somewhat after the debate, with Trump taking more of a lead in national and state polling. Some polls of more traditionally liberal-leaning states, like New Hampshire and Maine, also started showing Biden’s lead over Trump decreasing, giving Republicans hope that they could be in play and expand their map. Trump’s lead in national polling especially grew as calls mounted both publicly and privately within the Democratic Party for Biden to step aside as the nominee. The GOP nominee led in thenational polling average from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill by 3.3 points on July 21, the day that Biden announced he would end his reelection bid. Trump had not previously enjoyed a lead that large in the average during the race. After Biden dropped out, the election forecast models went dark. Trump leads Harris in the DDHQ national polling average by 2 points, but this includes relatively few polls released since last Sunday. One of the first national polls to be released after Harris threw her hat in the ring showed her ahead of Trump nationwide. She led by 2 points in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, which was within the margin of error. The same poll taken one week prior had Trump up on Biden by 2 and tied with Harris. Just as notable, Harris led by 4 points in a three-way race including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In many instances when Biden had led Trump in a head-to-head match-up, the former president’s position relative to Biden improved when respondents could choose among additional candidates.A majority of respondents said Harris is “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” 7 points higher than the percentage that said the same about Trump. Meanwhile, only a fifth said the same about Biden.

Karl Rove says Trump is ‘clearly in a subordinate role’ to Harris - Republican strategist Karl Rove said former President Trump needs to regain control of the campaign narrative because he is in a “subordinate role” compared to Vice President Harris.Rove outlined what both Trump and Harris need to do to boost their campaigns in the coming weeks during an interview with Fox News’ Neil Cavuto on Saturday. He said the week following the Democratic National Convention will be “critical” for Harris and that she needs “frame herself” and how she is going to attack Trump ahead of the general election.“I think the attitudes by Labor Day are going to be really important. So she needs to come blowing out of that convention in Chicago and showing big crowds and lots of enthusiasm,” Rove said of Harris.He then pivoted to Trump, noting that he has “difficulties” as well.“Trump, he has difficulties too. And he’s got a frame Harris. He’s got to find the right message to go after her because, as Lucas said, we’ve got 101 days as of today, then he’s got to get back in control of the dialogue,” he said on Saturday.“He is clearly in a subordinate role here. He feels uncomfortable with it, I suspect, and he likes being the guy who’s setting the tempo of the campaign. And that’s not happening,” he said. Harris has been thrust into the spotlight over the past week after President Biden withdrew from the race last week and endorsed her. Her campaign raised more than $200 million in the first week of her campaign as she attempts to drum up enthusiasm from Democrat voters.Early polls have shown good news for the Harris campaign and Democrats since Biden’s withdrawal from the race, with some national polls showing a close race between Harris and Trump. Harris leads by 2 points in a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, while Trump has a one-point leadover the vice president in a separate poll by The New York Times/Siena College.Rove said on Saturday that nine national polls have been taken since Biden withdrew from the race, warning that it would be a close contest between Harris and Trump.“If you if you take those, those nine polls, it is Trump by 0.88. That’s basically nine-tenths of 1 percent. And that’s after he gets the bump coming out of the convention that really showed a unity for the Republican ticket in the Republican Party,” he said.“And so this is going to be a barnburner and it’s very much up for grabs and the next two or three weeks are going to be critical for both camps,” he added.

Donald Trump says he'll 'probably' debate Kamala Harris: 'I can also make a case for not doing it' --Former President Trump on Monday said he would “probably” end up debating Vice President Harris ahead of November’s election, but he left the door open to backing out. “The answer is yes, I’ll probably end up debating,” Trump told Fox News host Laura Ingraham, arguing any debate should be held before early voting starts. Still, Trump listed off reasons for him not to participate even as Ingraham warned it would allow his critics to say he’s scared. Trump pointed to his lead in national and battleground state polls, though those surveys show a close race. He also argued the public knows where both candidates stand on the issues. “The answer is yes, but I can also make a case for not doing it,” Trump added. “Also, I don’t like rewarding fake news … They’re going to make tens of millions of dollars with this debate. I don’t like ABC.” Trump and President Biden agreed to two debates, one on June 27 and the other on Sept. 10, hosted by ABC News. Biden’s disastrous performance in the June debate sparked calls from Democrats for him to step aside as the nominee, which he did earlier this month in the face of mounting pressure. Harris has secured the support of enough delegates to be the likely nominee for Democrats. The Democratic convention will take place Aug. 19-22 in Chicago. Harris has said she is ready to debate Trump, and she and her campaign have accused Trump of backpedaling to try to get out of a one-on-one showdown.Trump told reporters last Tuesday he would “absolutely” debate Harris at least once before Election Day.His campaign later said it would not agree to a general election debate with Harris “until Democrats formally decide on their nominee.”

Falsely Accusing Biden And Harris Of Hating Israel; Falsely Accusing Trump Of Loving Russia -- Caitlin Johnstone -- One of the dumbest things about US politics today is the way both parties constantly attack each other for holding foreign policy positions they don’t actually hold in order to create the illusion that they have meaningful disagreements on foreign policy. Donald Trump has been campaigning on the cartoonishly ridiculous claim that Biden and Harris have been unsupportive to Israel even as they continue to unconditionally support its genocide in Gaza, which is a perfect mirror of the way Democrats spent years falsely claiming that Trump is a secret agent of the Kremlin even as he ramped up cold war aggressions against Russia. They need to campaign on these completely fictional disagreements regarding the enemies and allies of the US government, because they do not actually have real disagreements regarding the enemies and allies of the US government.During a speech in Florida on Friday, Trump claimed his new opponent Kamala Harris “stabbed Israel in the back” by skipping Benjamin Netanyahu’s genocide apologia speech before Congress the other day. He contrasted her with himself, saying that he has “done more for Israel by far, than any other president” with measures like recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the illegally occupied Golan Heights.“She doesn’t like Jewish people. She doesn’t like Israel,” Trump said of Harris, who (A) is married to a Jewish man, (B) has an established track record of groveling before the Israel lobby, and (C) released an obnoxious statementdenouncing anti-genocide demonstrators who protested Netanyahu’s speech as antisemitic terrorist supporters.This is a continuation of the way Trump and Republicans have been absurdly claiming that Joe Biden has “abandoned Israel”, despite this president havingdelivered tens of thousands of bombs and thousands of missiles to Israel since October 7 while bombing Yemen, Iraq and Syria to suppress foreign retaliations for Israel’s genocide in Gaza, and providing Israel with limitless diplomatic and PR cover this entire time. The self-described Zionist Joe Biden couldn’t be more supportive of Israel and its agendas unless he was actually physically in Gaza personally shooting medical workers with a sniper rifle. When Netanyahu met with Biden this past Thursday he told him, “From a proud Israeli Zionist to a proud Irish American Zionist, I want to thank you for fifty years of public service and fifty years of support for the state of Israel.” Ahead of Netanyahu’s meetings with both Biden and Harris, a senior administration official told the press that there was “no daylight between the president and vice president” on their position on Israel.There is no way to square this with Trump’s rhetoric about Biden and Harris being evil antisemitic Israel haters. But that’s not going to stop Republicans from making these claims anyway, God bless them.This is much the same as the way Democrats and their allied media spent years shrieking that Trump was secretly working for Vladimir Putin, when the strongest evidence against this claim was always that Trump is an insanely hawkish cold warrior who spent his entire term actively working against the interests of Moscow by initiating the arming of Ukraine, shredding nuclear treaties, implementing wave after wave of sanctions against Russia, bombing and occupying Syria, undermining Russian energy interests and more. It was a narrative that was completely divorced from reality, held in place by nothing but rote repetition and authoritative-sounding assertions. Which is why nobody who was actually paying attention to Trump’s real material actions was surprised when Mueller failed to indict a single American for conspiring with Russia at the conclusion of his investigation in 2019.In reality both Democrats and Republicans are more or less in lockstep on supporting Israel and subverting Russia, and on every other major foreign policy issue in Washington. But you can’t run a political campaign on “Vote for me, I’m exactly the same as my opponent,” so they need to invent these fantasy worlds wherein Democrats are trying to free Palestine from the river to the sea and Republicans are trying to turn the White House into a puppet regime of Moscow. If both parties stopped pretending to be different from each other regarding the way the US empire is run, Americans would begin to notice that they’ve fallen victim to a scam designed to trick them into thinking they have some control over how their government moves and behaves on the world stage. Like the jewelers who all work for the same employer to create the illusion of competition in John Steinbeck’s “The Pearl”, Republicans and Democrats put on a fake performance of opposition to keep the locals from noticing that the real power in their country is completely unaccountable to their votes.

Democrats push war, Trump pushes dictatorship - Sunday marked 100 days remaining until the US presidential election, with both capitalist parties in crisis and disarray, and both responding with renewed focus on their central and most reactionary priorities. In the case of the Democrats, this means imperialist war, particularly in Ukraine. In the case of the Republicans, it means doubling down on fascist threats of a Trump dictatorship. The newly launched Harris presidential campaign has proved an immediate financial success, raking in more than $200 million in campaign contributions, much of it from big money donors, who had withheld contributions the previous month after Biden’s disastrous performance in a June 27 presidential debate with Trump. Both Senate and House Democrats claimed massive fundraising gains on the back of the media glorification of Harris and the manufactured “enthusiasm” among Democratic Party activists over the replacement of the 81-year-old Biden, whose candidacy was widely regarded as hopeless after his disastrous and senile performance during his debate with Trump last month. Harris held a series of campaign appearances over the weekend, particularly aiming to cash in on the media glorification of her racial and gender identity. If elected, she would be the first female African American and the first Asian American in the White House. The Democratic candidate then turned over the public campaigning for several days to surrogates, while she and her top advisers met behind closed doors to discuss potential choices for vice president. The real priorities of the Biden-Harris administration were put on display Monday when the Pentagon announced a further package of lethal aid for Ukraine, totaling $1.7 billion, mainly missiles and ammunition for weapons systems already provided to Ukraine. This includes additional ammunition for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), a medium-range weapon that Ukraine has been using to hit targets deep inside Russia. Some $1.5 billion will come through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, providing funds to Ukraine to buy the weapons produced by American arms manufacturers. The remaining $200 million will come directly from Pentagon stockpiles under Presidential Drawdown Authority, including “air defense interceptors; munitions for rocket systems and artillery; and anti-tank weapons.” Harris is a staunch supporter of the US-NATO war against Russia in Ukraine and has repeatedly attacked both Trump and his running mate, Senator J. D. Vance of Ohio, for their suggestions that the war was too expensive and could be resolved relatively quickly through personal diplomacy between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Republicans do not oppose imperialist war, in Ukraine or anywhere else, but would rather focus more directly on the US military build-up and provocations against Iran and China. While the Democrats continue fueling a conflict which could ignite a nuclear World War III, Republican candidate Donald Trump made another threat to establish a dictatorship, during a campaign appearance last Friday before a Christian fundamentalist group. He was speaking at the Believers Summit, held by the ultra-right Turning Point Action group in West Palm Beach, Florida, near Trump’s Mar a-Lago estate. “Christians, get out and vote, just this time,” Trump declared. “You won’t have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what, it will be fixed, it will be fine, you won’t have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians.” He repeated this not-so-subtle suggestion that 2024 might be the last US election, proclaiming, “I love you Christians. I’m a Christian. I love you, get out, you gotta get out and vote. In four years, you don’t have to vote again, we’ll have it fixed so good you’re not going to have to vote.” Such threats should be taken both literally and seriously, coming from a candidate who has pledged to be a “dictator on day one” and who instigated the fascist assault on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, in an attempt to overturn the result of the last election. Neither Trump nor Vance has said he will respect the outcome of the 2024 vote unless it meets their standards for “fairness”—in other words, unless they win.

"Bad On Foreign Policy But Good On Domestic Policy" Is Just American Supremacist Psychopathy --Caitlin Johnstone -- Another annoying thing about US presidential elections is how all the liberals start babbling in unison about “foreign policy” and “domestic policy” like they’re two equal things which should be compartmentalized and separately considered.“Okay sure, Kamala is bad on foreign policy with her support for what’s happening in Gaza and all, but she’s a lot better than Trump on domestic policy,” you’ll hear them say with increasing frequency and urgency.Leaving aside the arguments one can make that Kamala Harris is actually quite bad on domestic policy, this separation of “foreign policy” and “domestic policy” is a dishonest talking point which only resonates with sloppy thinkers, and arises from a rather ugly underlying worldview.Splitting up “foreign policy” and “domestic policy” on questions of right and wrong only makes sense if you believe harming foreigners is more morally acceptable than harming Americans. “Kamala is bad on foreign policy but good on domestic policy” just means “American lives are innately superior.” It can only feel true from the inside of an American supremacist worldview.Murder and abuse is wrong regardless of where in the world it happens to occur. The fact that it isn’t happening to you or anyone you know personally doesn’t make it more ethical, it just makes it more tolerable for you if you’re the sort of person who only cares about yourself and your loved ones. The fact that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris support committing genocide in Gaza shouldn’t feel any more acceptable to you than if they supported committing genocide in Detroit. Morally speaking, there is no difference.Talking about the US empire’s abusiveness in terms of “domestic policy” versus “foreign policy” also pollutes the discourse by creating the wildly false impression that these matters carry equal weight and are equally worthy of consideration. The overwhelming majority of the US government’s murderousness and tyranny are inflicted not within its own official borders but in foreign countries in the form of wars, economic sanctions, blockades, proxy conflicts, coups, bombing campaigns, and drone warfare. If you are an American and you care about other people, then “foreign policy” should carry the lion’s share of the moral weight for you, because that’s where the US government actions of most consequence for human beings will take place.Saying a US politician is “bad on foreign policy but good on domestic policy” is like saying “Sure my husband spends his weekends murdering hitchhikers, but he’s a good provider and he knows how to fix a flat tire.” You’re talking about genocide, nuclear brinkmanship, mass military slaughter and deliberate mass starvation, and you’re placing these things on the same moral level as a candidate’s position on student loan debt.The only reason this kind of chowderheaded reasoning works on anyone at all is because the American propaganda services known as the mainstream media put a lot of energy into keeping Americans from thinking too hard about what their government is up to overseas. The US empire’s nonstop abuses are just a dull humming in the background which gets the occasional news story, while the vast majority of attention goes toward Trump’s latest scandal or the current hot-button culture war issue. In a presidential debate lasting two hours, you might get six minutes on foreign policy while the rest goes into talking about what happens inside the nation’s borders, whereas, in a debate which placed emphasis on the matters of most significance, the exact opposite would be the case. And let me preempt any objections that the two major presidential candidates are always murderous warmongers by saying, I know. Believe me, I know. You can use that fact to argue that because they’re both corrupt genocide monsters you may as well support the genocide monster who might make things a tiny bit less hard for some people in one small part of the world, or you can actually look at what I’m pointing at here and really ingest the horror of the situation the powerful have created for you and your compatriots. The fact that you’re only allowed to vote for corrupt genocide monsters should shake you to your core, and that’s what should be the main focus of everyone’s political attention. It’s only because Americans are the most propagandized people on earth that this isn’t happening.

RFK Jr.’s campaign struggles with Harris in race -Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign looks like it is in trouble with Vice President Harris as the likely Democratic nominee. Kennedy is scrambling to keep the public’s attention — and struggling to keep his moribund presidential bid alive. The independent candidate’s polling, prominent family and unpredictability have kept him on the watchlists of both parties. But Harris’s ascent has coincided with cash woes and ballot-access concerns for the third-party insurgent. In another bad sign, Kennedy’s fiercest critics are starting to ignore him, suggesting they view him as less of a threat. “He is a dysfunctional candidate,” said Michael Ceraso, a Democratic campaign strategist who suggested a number of things have harmed Kennedy in the last few weeks. “The youth movement behind Gaza took a back seat to a terrible debate performance by the president, the assassination attempt of a former president, Dems turning on Biden,” said Ceraso. “RFK is irrelevant to all of this.” Kennedy’s third-party bid was crafted largely on dissatisfaction with former President Trump, the GOP nominee, and President Biden, who ended his campaign last week and endorsed Harris. Now that the race has changed on the Democratic side, Kennedy has been robbed of one argument.

Roy Cooper withdraws from consideration as Harris’s running mate -- North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) has withdrawn from consideration as Vice President Harris’s running mate in the November election, he said Monday. “I strongly support Vice President Harris’ campaign for President. I know she’s going to win and I was honored to be considered for this role,” Cooper said in a statement. “This just wasn’t the right time for North Carolina and for me to potentially be on a national ticket,” he continued. “As I’ve said from the beginning, she has an outstanding list of people from which to choose, and we’ll all work to make sure she wins.” Cooper’s decision narrows the list of Democrats being considered to join Harris on the ticket ahead of an Aug. 7 deadline for her to name her running mate. The New York Times first reported on Cooper’s decision.. Others still being vetted include Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D), Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D), Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Cooper was among the several Democrats being vetted as Harris and her campaign narrow in on a running mate. The case for the governor centered on his ability to win election in a swing state, the state’s passage of Medicaid expansion under his leadership and his experience as an attorney general. But some Democrats worried about the state’s law that would have made Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R), who has made headlines for incendiary comments, the acting governor whenever Cooper left the state. Additionally, Cooper, 67, is older than Harris, though he is younger than former President Trump, the GOP nominee.

Ingraham presses Trump on telling Christians ‘You won’t have to vote anymore’ in 4 years - Fox News host Laura Ingraham on Monday repeatedly prodded former President Trump over his comments at a conservative Christian summit, where he told attendees they won’t have to vote anymore after November. Trump did little to push back on the backlash over his remarks, as some Democrats have suggested the former president was saying there would be no more elections if he won. Instead, Trump repeatedly argued his comments were because Christians do not vote in large numbers, and he offhandedly questioned Jewish voters who support Democrats.“That statement is very simple. I said vote for me, you’re not going to have to do it ever again. It’s true, because we have to get the vote out. Christians are not known as a big voting group,” Trump said. “This time vote. I’ll straighten out the country, you won’t have to vote anymore. I won’t need your vote. You can go back to not voting,” he added. “You meant you won’t have to vote for you because you have four years in office. Is that what you meant?” Ingraham asked.When Trump did not directly answer, Ingraham pointed out that some liberals were interpreting Trump’s original remarks to mean there would not be another election. Trump said he had not heard that criticism previously, and he repeated his argument that Christians tend not to vote in large numbers. “Christians do not vote well. They vote in very small percentages. Why, I don’t know. Maybe they’re disappointed in things that are happening,” Trump said. “I say, ‘You don’t vote. I’m saying go out, you must vote.’ But I said to the Christians in the room, thousands of them. I said typically, Christians do not vote.“Don’t worry about the future,” he continued. “You have to vote on Nov. 5. After that you don’t have to worry about voting anymore. I don’t care, because we’re going to fix it. The country will be fixed … We won’t even need your vote anymore because, frankly, we will have such love.”Trump on Friday addressed Turning Point Action’s “Believers Summit” in Florida. He urged Christians to back him for a second term in a race against Vice President Harris and closed out his remarks by urging attendees to vote in November.“You won’t have to do it anymore … You got to get out and vote. In four years, you don’t have to vote again. We’ll have it fixed so good you’re not going to have to vote,” Trump said. Some Democrats, including the Harris campaign, jumped on the remarks as a sign Trump would rule as an authoritarian and do away with elections if he is victorious. They have similarly highlighted Trump’s comments that he would only be a dictator for one day if reelected to enact sweeping energy and immigration changes.

Biden’s former communications director: Trump wasn’t saying ‘there will be no more elections’ - President Biden’s former communications director poured water on some Democrat’s concerns Sunday that former President Trump implied there won’t be future elections if he’s elected again.Trump made the remarks at a Turning Point USA event on Friday, telling supporters, “In four years, you won’t have to vote again.”Kate Bedingfield wrote on social media that Trump wasn’t implying that there wouldn’t be an election in 2028 if he won, as some on the left have remarked.“I think he is saying I won’t be on the ticket either way, so who cares,” she said. “Which is hideously damning in its own right, cause this is what the Republican Party has turned itself inside out and shredded its credibility for — to become a stan account for this one awful, narcissistic guy.”Top Trump surrogates have also brushed off the comments in recent days, with Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) saying in a CNN interview Sunday that Trump was “obviously making a joke.”Bedingfield’s post received some push back from those who said her comments downplayed Trump’s threat to democracy, specifically referring to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and attempts to sow doubt about the 2024 election. She later clarified her point.“I am not suggesting Trump isn’t a threat to democracy or that he hasn’t said and done despicable things — like Jan 6, like saying he’d be a dictator on day one — he has and it is unacceptable and appalling,” she said.“But it does mean we have to think about winning messages targeted to those people who don’t absorb everything Donald Trump says the same way everyone responding here does,” she continued. “It does not mean I think we should let him off the hook. The opposite — I think it means Dems absolutely 100 percent have to win because the stakes are existential.”Other notable Democrats also chimed in backing up Bedingfield, including former Obama spokesperson Tommy Vietor, now of “Pod Save America.”“He’s a selfish prick and a liar who says he can fix everything in four years or politics won’t matter once hes gone,” Vietor said of Trump. “That doesn’t mean he’s not also a threat to democracy- and you’ve said as much a million times!”Anti-Trump conservative commentator Bill Kristol also supported Bedingfield’s point, labeling her critics “mostly dense or foolish.”“A range of arguments are needed to defeat Trump, and dogmatically asserting there’s ne magic argument or kind of argument that works on everyone, is silly and counter-productive,”he wrote.While the Biden campaign relied on warnings about Trump’s threat to democracy as its primary argument against the former president, the Harris campaign seems to be testing new attack lines as well. Harris surrogates — including Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), who is reportedly a contender to be her running mate — have begun labeling Republicans as simply “weird,” pointing to positions on LGBTQ rights and abortion access that are relatively unpopular.

Fox News host challenges JD Vance on ‘childless cat lady’ remarks -- Fox News host Trey Gowdy questioned Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) on Sunday over past remarksfrom the vice presidential candidate criticizing people who are “childless” and calling Vice President Harris a “cat lady,” an insult that has resulted in bipartisan blowback. Gowdy, himself a former congressman, defended those without children in the opening monologue of his show.. He shared a story of meeting a pair of Catholic nuns who prayed for his friend, who was expecting a child, after spending the day together in an airport. “And it’s not just Catholic nuns. Some of the finest people I know don’t have children,” Gowdy said. “Teachers and guidance counselors and lawyers and doctors, and they love other people’s children enough to teach and guide and protect and minister to them. Some people choose not to have children. Others desperately want them, but they can’t.” “The American people are forgiving, if we ask,” he added before welcoming Vance on the show. Vance did not apologize for the comments, originally from 2021, instead accusing Democrats of being “antifamily.” “If you look at what the left has done, they have radically taken this out of context and in fact, aggressively lied about what I’ve said,” Vance said. “The left has increasingly become explicitly antichild and antifamily. They’ve encouraged young families not to have children at all, because of concerns over climate change.” Gowdy again challenged Vance over the comments, pointing out that former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and George Washington are among American leaders without children. Vance agreed with Gowdy’s assessment that “direct offspring are not necessary to be fully invested in the future of this country,” but went on to say being a parent “really does transform your perspective.” “So this is not a criticism, and was never a criticism, of everybody without children. That is a lie of the left. It is a criticism of the increasingly antiparent and antichild attitude of the left,” Vance said.

Trump's VP Pick Is A Climate Skeptic, And The Knives Are Out -- Within a day of ex-President Trump’s announcement of “climate denier” Mr. J. D. Vance as the Republican Vice Presidential nominee, the climate industrial complex and supportive mainstream media had the knives out. A few headlines of the past 24 hours are an indication.

The New York Times: “JD Vance Is an Oil Booster and Doubter of Human-Caused Climate Change”
The Independent: JD Vance: “Climate activists alarmed by Trump’s ‘dangerous’ pick for vice president”
The Guardian: “Climate advocates fear picking JD Vance for VP is ‘a dangerous step backward’”

The umbrage taken by media commentators is familiar. CNBC laments that “the former venture capitalist though is a known critic of climate change and renewable energy [italics added].” UK’s The Independent newspaper reports that “[c]ampaigners are responding with alarm to the selection of climate denier and Ohio senator JD Vance as Donald Trump’s vice presidential nominee, with activists warning he represents a “dangerous” voice for the US.” Mr. Vance’s “eagerness to please Donald Trump” adds to the image of the vice-presidential nominee as an unprincipled politician seeking office. Climate advocacy group Fossil Free Media spokesperson Cassidy DiPaola asserted that "This [VP] choice signals that a potential Trump-Vance administration would likely double down on fossil fuel expansion at a time when we desperately need to transition to clean energy.” Communications director Stevie O’Hanlon of Sunrise Movement, a climate activist organization, said that “Like Donald Trump, JD Vance has proven that he will make it a top priority to roll back climate protections while answering to the demands of oil and gas CEOs.” Does Mr. Vance have a principled stand and is his stance on climate and energy policy worthy of consideration? As the highly polarized debate over climate change over the past few decades has amply demonstrated, the discourse often descends into ad hominem attacks and name calling. “Climate denier” is a charge that is often used by proponents of climate alarm to shut down critical debate and to deplatform climate sceptics. Lena Moffitt, executive director of the environmental advocacy group Evergreen Action, said this of Mr. Vance: “Donald Trump has chosen an avowed climate denier as his running mate who has used his time in Congress to vote against the environment and shill for fossil fuel corporations at every opportunity.” The “denier” accusation is among the more pernicious if popular epithets used to denigrate sceptics of the so-called “consensus science.” It invokes a comparison to those who engage in Holocaust denial. To be sure, most observers would consider it ludicrous to suggest that questioning the accuracy and predictive power of scientific models is like questioning the historical fact of the genocide of Jews in Europe. Putting aside epithets and journalistic hit-pieces, it seems a fair question to ask just what do politicians skeptical of the climate alarmist narrative believe? And what are their policy positions regarding the Paris Agreement’s “net zero by 2050” target. This policy target is an imperative, at least nominally, for most current governments in North America and Western Europe? It now looks very likely that Mr. Trump will be the next US president. Thus Mr. Vance will likely join the Donald Trump next year as his VP in an administration that will seek to rapidly unwind the myriad policy and regulatory constraints that the Biden administration has imposed to shackle the US oil and gas industry at every turn. Vance has also criticized the “green energy fantasy” of the Biden administration, pointing out that “solar panels can’t power a modern manufacturing economy” and “that’s why the Chinese are building coal power plants.” He has similarly called out wind power turbines. At the Turning Point Action conference last year, he said “they’re hideously ugly. They kill all the birds. And they’re mostly made in China.” The Biden administration’s all-out support for EVs comes in for the same critique. In a July 2022 radio interview, he said: “The whole EV thing is a scam. If you plug it into your wall, do these people think there are Keebler elves back there making electricity in the wall? It comes, of course, from fossil fuels.” Mr. Vance’s climate skepticism goes beyond encouraging US oil and gas dominance in global markets once again – a strong theme of Trump’s first term in office – if the Republicans get elected to office. He has come out fiercely against the ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) movement. In an interview with Breitbart in 2022, he said “ESG is basically a massive racket to enrich Wall Street and enrich the financial sector of the country, at the expense of the industries that actually employ a lot of Ohio’s workers for middle-class jobs.” The push against ESG occurring through the red states in the U.S. and the increasingly evident lack of success of ESG-focused firms and investment advisors suggests that Mr. Vance has probably got a better finger on the pulse than his critics would care to admit.

Climate protesters arrested outside JD Vance’s office -- Eight protesters were arrested Monday during a climate protest outside of vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance’s (R-Ohio) office. Prior to the arrests, several dozen Sunrise Movement protesters gathered in front of Vance’s office singing and chanting in protest, including a chant of, “Vance is a liar, our planet is on fire.” Police attempted to clear the protesters Monday morning, but a few of them would not move from outside Vance’s office. An officer asked, “Want to be arrested?” before additional law enforcement tied the protesters’ hands behind their backs with zip ties. Officers also shooed reporters from the area. Capitol Police spokesperson Brianna Burch said the eight arrests were for violating laws against demonstrating inside Congressional office buildings. Vance was announced earlier this month as former President Trump’s running mate. The arrested protesters were among dozens who joined the Sunrise demonstration. “JD Vance claims to be fighting for working people, but the reality is that he’s willing to sell out for a couple hundred thousand dollars,” said Aru Shiney-Ajay, the Sunrise Movement’s executive director. ”We’re trying to expose the hypocrisy and the corruption that he stands for and cut through the narrative that he’s for the Midwest or for Appalachia.” “He’s pushing policies that will cause flooding, heatwaves, price increases. He’s taking away good, green job creation,” Shiney-Ajay added.

JD Vance says insults 'price of entry' of being nominated to national ticket --Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) brushed off the blowback he is facing from Democrats and some Republicans since being tapped as former President Trump’s vice presidential pick, calling the criticism the “price of entry” to be on the Republican presidential ticket.“I knew that when I came out of the gate there was going to be a couple of days of positive media coverage and then immediately, they would go and attack me over everything that I had ever said in my life,” he told NBC News in a Tuesday interview.Vance said he does not believe he has disappointed Trump despite the backlash.“The price of entry of being on the national ticket and giving me an opportunity to govern is you have to … take the shots, and so I sort of expected it,” he added. “I think that, frankly, the people who’ve made a lot of money and acquired a lot of power screwing the country up are not going to go easily.”The Ohio Republican has faced ongoing criticism from Democrats in recent weeks over a series of resurfaced comments, especially a 2021 remark he made criticizing Democratic leaders who don’t have biological children.He told then-Fox News host Tucker Carlson the country was being run by “a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made, and so they want to make the rest of the country miserable, too.”Vance defended the “childless cat ladies” remarks last week, calling it a “sarcastic comment” and pivoting to attack Democrats as “anti-family.”He stood by the remarks on Tuesday, telling NBC, “What I was criticizing and continue to criticize is a particular neurosis in American leadership that I think leads people to say crazy things, like you shouldn’t have children because climate change is a threat to the future.”“Climate change may very well be a problem, but it is not a problem that should motivate people to not have families. And I think that attitude is quite damaging. It’s quite destructive,” he said.Vance was indirectly referencing comments Vice President Harris made in September, when she argued the large young voter turnout in 2020 was in part due to their concerns about climate change. A clip of those comments resurfaced over the weekend by some Republicans who baselessly claimed Harris was suggesting young people should not have children amid rising fears over the impact of climate change.Some Democrats have labelled Vance and his comments as “weird,” though he told Fox News on Sunday his feelings are not hurt by the label.

Unearthed campaign contributions worry environmentalists about major candidate - Environmentalists are raising concerns about Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump's pick for vice president after examining Ohio Senator JD Vance's history of prioritizing dirty energy interests. On July 16, the Guardian reported that Vance has accepted more than $340,000 in campaign contributions from the oil and gas industry since 2019, according to nonprofitOpenSecrets. He is one of the "top industry benefactors" at this point in the 2024 election cycle. "The selection of JD Vance as a potential vice president is a dangerous step backward for climate action in the United States," Fossil Free Media's Make Polluters Pay campaign spokesperson Cassidy DiPaola told the Guardian. "Senator Vance's record shows a clear pattern of prioritizing fossil fuel interests over the urgent need to address the climate crisis."Stevie O'Hanlon, the communication director for the environmental justice group Sunrise Movement, also expressed concerns to the Guardian over Vance's reversal on climate issues after previously advocating for clean energy initiatives. Moreover, Vance has appeared to downplay how humans have contributed to rising global temperatures, telling the American Leadership Forum that he was "skeptical" that changing temperatures were caused "purely by man," according to the Guardian, which is a common straw-man argument intended to mislead, since no climate scientist is saying the planet's climate changes exclusively from human actions.What an incredible 99.9% of peer-reviewed scientific papers have agreed on, though, is that humans are "mainly" responsible for the extreme rate at which the planet has been overheating in global average temperatures since the Industrial Revolution, worsening in recent decades. Environmentalists are worried that if Vance serves as vice president, he will be more empowered to roll back planet-friendly policies that have benefited Americans. While Earth's climate has changed in cycles throughout its existence, as NASA notes, more than 99.9% of peer-reviewed studies agree that human activities are primarily to blame for the accelerated warming following the preindustrial era, according to the Cornell Chronicle. Major players in the dirty energy industry are on the same page, acknowledging (at least internally) the harm their pollution has caused, per reporting from Heated. Internal documents from a Senate hearing titled "Denial, Disinformation, and Doublespeak: Big Oil's Evolving Efforts to Avoid Accountability for Climate Change" reveal that dirty energy companies spent millions to influence universities, allegedly working to hide their knowledge from the public and investors about the impacts of their polluting fuels on our planet. In August 2023, Vance advocated for increasing oil production across the Utica Shale, suggesting in The Marietta Times that the solution to providing "cheap and reliable power" is to support dirty energy projects like new pipelines and refineries. The Ohio senator also called for incentivizing U.S.-made gas-powered vehicles and co-sponsored a bill that would hinder the Environmental Protection Agency from enforcing a pollution-reducing vehicle standard.

Progressives sound alarm on talk of Josh Shapiro as Harris vice presidential pick - Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) is facing growing pushback from progressives even as his stock rises in the veepstakes conversation. They are sounding the alarm on his past position on school vouchers and say his stance on the Israel-Hamas war could highlight a divide in the Democratic Party that could impact the November election if Vice President Harris chooses him as her running mate. Democrats who back Shapiro point to his popularity, record of winning statewide and the overall electoral importance of Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes and is part of the so-called Blue Wall considered crucial to Democrats. But that hasn’t stopped progressives from amplifying their criticism of the governor this week. One letter signed by nearly 50 progressive leaders pointed to Shapiro’s “shortcomings as a national candidate” and urged the vice president to consider Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) instead. “With the compressed timeline ahead of us to defeat the Trump-Vance-MAGA threat, we simply cannot afford any setbacks,” the letter said. A letter from another progressive group, known as “VP Unity,” said Harris’s consideration of Shapiro has “set off alarm bells” among young voters, Muslims, Arab Americans and activists. Some progressive critics of Shapiro say his response to the pro-Palestinian protests in Pennsylvania, which they labeled as “heavy handed,” could impact a Harris-Shapiro ticket more negatively than his views on the Israel-Hamas war more generally. The governor has been a vocal supporter of Israel in the months since the Oct. 7 attacks, but has also been critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his handling of the war and humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Shapiro allies are pushing back. “Throughout his entire career and particularly over the last several months, Governor Shapiro — who enjoys a close personal relationship with Muslim-American, Arab-American, Palestinian, Christian, and Jewish community leaders — has brought people together, listened, and worked with them to try and keep our communities safe and heard,” Shapiro spokesperson Manuel Bonder told The Hill. Other Democrats are accusing progressives of dividing the Democratic coalition and take particular issue with Shapiro, who is Jewish, receiving the brunt of the criticism over Israel. They say Shapiro is highly progressive on myriad other items and that any concerns wouldn’t stop Democrats from voting for Harris over former President Trump.

Mark Kelly hits back at Donald Trump for comments on Kamala Harris -Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) said former President Trump’s attack on Vice President Harris’s heritage at the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) convention on Wednesday revealed Trump to be a “desperate, scared old man.”“I think those are the comments of a desperate, scared old man, who, over the last week especially, has been having his butt kicked by an experienced prosecutor, and I think he’s worried,” Kelly told reporters outside the Capitol on Wednesday.“And she’s going to continue to do this, and she’s going to win the election in November, and she’s going to be our next president,” added Kelly, considered a top contender to be Harris’s running mate.Trump gave a contentious interview on Wednesday at the NABJ annual convention in Chicago. At one point, Trump questioned Harris’s heritage, which is both Indian American and African American. “She was always of Indian heritage. And she was only promoting Indian heritage. I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black. And now she wants to be known as Black,” Trump said of Harris. “So I don’t know, is she Indian, or is she Black?” “But you know what, I respect either one,” Trump added. “But she obviously doesn’t. Because she was Indian all the way then, all of a sudden, she made a turn. And she became a Black person. And I think somebody should look into that.” Kelly said these comments from Trump “are not unexpected from him,” adding, “We’ve seen this over, you know, since when? 2015 or so. So he’s done this before. He’s not going to change. Pretty obvious to me, why, why he’s doing this.” On whether he thinks Trump’s comments were rooted in racism, Kelly said, “Yeah, sure,” but stressed, “It’s who the guy is, and he’s always been like this.” “I grew up in New Jersey originally. When I was in high school, he was a New Yorker business guy. Now he’s a New Yorker old business guy, and he was like this when I used to see him in the news in the 1980s and he’s still the same today, He’s not going to change,”

Harris calls out Trump at Atlanta rally: 'If you got something to say, say it to my face' -- Vice President Harris rallied an enthusiastic crowd in the critical state of Georgia on Tuesday, calling out former President Trump over hot-button issues like border security. “The momentum in this race is shifting and there are signs that Donald Trump is feeling it — you may have noticed,” the vice president told the crowd in Atlanta. She called out Trump for “pulling out” of the debate in November after the former president said he will “probably” debate Harris at the previously agreed to debate in September. “Well Donald, I do hope you’ll reconsider to meet me on the debate stage because as the saying goes, if you got something to say, say it to my face,” she said, eliciting cheers from the crowd. She traveled to Atlanta as she looks to build on a wave of enthusiasm, seen through both fundraising and volunteer sign-ups, that she has enjoyed since she announced her intention to seek the Democratic nomination just over a week ago. She noted her focus on Georgia, which President Biden won in 2020 by fewer than 12,000 votes, ahead of November. “The path to the White House runs right through this state and you all helped us win in 2020, and we’re going to do it again in 2024. Yes, we will,” Harris said. She hit Trump over the border, vowing to get the bipartisan immigration legislation that was negotiated in the Senate signed into law if she is elected. “In this campaign, I will proudly put my record against his any day of the week,” she said, highlighting that as attorney general of California, she went after transnational gangs, drug cartels and human traffickers. “I prosecuted them in case after case and I won. Donald Trump, Donald Trump on the other hand has been talking a big game about securing our border but he does not walk the walk or, as my friend Quavo would say, he does not walk it like he talks it,” she said, quoting the rapper who spoke before her at the rally.

Trump responds to Harris’s call to compare records: Challenge accepted - Former President Trump returned Wednesday to Pennsylvania for the first time since he was shot at a rally outside of Pittsburgh earlier in the month, where he sought to characterize Vice President Harris as a “phony” and welcomed a challenge to compare their records. Trump repeatedly attacked Harris, who is the likely Democratic nominee after President Bidenended his candidacy, tying her to past positions she took during her own 2020 presidential bid but has since disavowed.“Kamala is now being given a personality makeover,” Trump told a crowd in Harrisburg. “All of a sudden she’s the new Margaret Thatcher. The great Margaret Thatcher. No, I don’t think so. But you’re going to learn.”Harris in her own campaign rallies over the past week has said she would “gladly” put her record up against Trump’s. The former president on Wednesday responded directly to those remarks, saying, “Well, Kamala, let’s go. Challenge accepted. Let’s compare our records, point by point.”Trump highlighted Harris’ past support for a ban on fracking, for a gun buy-back program, for reforming spending on police and for a single-payer healthcare system. He also attacked her over the surge in immigration at the southern border, something the Trump campaign has particularly focused on in recent days.“No matter how much Kamala Harris tries to change her image, she cannot change this fact: She is the most extreme liberal candidate in the history of our country by far,” Trump said, calling Harris a “radical left puppet candidate who is fake, fake, fake.”In the roughly one week since Harris became the likely Democratic nominee, her campaign hasmoved to distance her from a series of positions she took when she was a candidate in the 2020 presidential primary.She no longer supports a ban on fracking, a campaign official said, nor does she support expanding the Supreme Court. She no longer backs a single-payer healthcare system after previously endorsing a Medicare for All proposal, the campaign official confirmed, or a government-run gun buyback program. Harris also supports additional border funding put forward by the Biden administration, a break from her 2020 primary stance that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) should minimally be reformed. And the campaign touted her record as a prosecutor and the Biden White House’s support for additional funding for law enforcement in response to questions about her previous comments on the “defund the police” movement.Earlier in the day, Trump drew backlash when he claimed Harris “became a Black person,” questioning her biracial heritage during a gathering for the National Association of Black Journalists.Wednesday was Trump’s first rally in Pennsylvania since an assassination attempt at a rally in Butler. Trump’s ear was hit by a bullet, and one rally attendee was killed in the shooting.The former president opened his remarks in Harrisburg by acknowledging the shooting and holding a moment of silence for Corey Comperatore, who died at the rally.

Kamala Harris won't seek fracking ban if elected: Campaign official - Vice President Kamala Harris will not seek to ban fracking if she’s elected president, an official with her campaign told The Hill on Friday. Harris’s position not to support a ban on fracking differs from where she stood when she was running for president last cycle. While she was one of several Democrats vying for the 2020 nomination, she told CNN, “There’s no question I’m in favor of banning fracking.” However, since that time, she joined the Biden campaign and administration, neither of which supports a ban on fracking Since Harris became the party’s likely nominee after Biden dropped out of the race, Republicans, including former President Trump, have highlighted her 2019 stance. “She wants no fracking,” Trump told supporters this week during a rally in Charlotte, N.C. “You’re going to be paying a lot of money. You’re going to be paying so much. You’re going to say ‘bring back Trump.’” A spokesperson for Harris’s campaign pushed back, saying, “Trump’s false claims about fracking bans are an obvious attempt to distract from his own plans to enrich oil and gas executives at the expense of the middle class.” “The Biden-Harris Administration passed the largest ever climate change legislation and under their leadership, America now has the highest ever domestic energy production,” the spokesperson said in an email. “This Administration created 300,000 energy jobs, while Trump lost nearly a million and his Project 2025 would undo the enormous progress we’ve made the past four years.”

Kamala Harris reverses stance on fracking as she tries to court swing voters - Vice President Harris has reversed her position on fracking, signaling a move to the center on the issue. The rightward shift comes as she tries to court swing voters in states like Pennsylvania. Harris was met with a wave of left-wing enthusiasm when she became the party’s presumptive nominee after President Biden left the race. Her shifted stance on fracking could dampen excitement among progressives, but the party’s left flank is still poised to ultimately back her over former President Trump. The Hill first reported, citing a Harris campaign official, that the vice president no longer supports a ban on fracking, despite taking the opposite stance when she ran for the Democratic nomination in the 2020 presidential cycle. Pennsylvania, a pivotal swing state in the upcoming election, is the second biggest gas-producing state, and the energy sector represented 4.6 percent of its total employment in 2022. The state had nearly 18,000 people working in fuel extraction that year. However, fracking has come under scrutiny due to its environmental impacts. Beyond its role in producing planet-warming fossil fuels, it has been linked to earthquakes and pollution. A 2022 study also found that children living near fracking sites had a higher likelihood of developing leukemia. Climate is a weighty issue for many in the Democrats’ constituency, especially young voters. Nevertheless, some political strategists said they believed Harris’s pivot was smart because it could reassure some voters, particularly those concerned about economic and labor issues. “Fracking is a central part, a foundational part, a significant portion of Pennsylvania’s economy. The economic argument is going to be extremely significant nationally, and in the States, it’s the top issue on voters’ minds,” said Jon Reinish, a national Democratic strategist. Samuel Chen, a Pennsylvania-based Republican strategist, expressed a similar opinion, saying that if Harris doubled down on her previous support of a fracking ban, “it’s not going to play well in states like Pennsylvania.” Others disagreed, saying they don’t believe Harris’s stance on fracking will have major implications for the race. Her path to victory in key states like Pennsylvania is unlikely to include many hardcore oil and gas supporters, said Pennsylvania-based Democratic strategist Mike Mikus. Mikus was skeptical Harris’s reversal on the issue will be a millstone in the state, which was ground zero for the 2010s natural-gas boom. He noted that Republicans levied similar attacks on President Biden, who, unlike Harris, has not signaled support for a ban. “The Republicans have always used this as an attack regardless of whether that was a candidate’s position — it’s like the boy who cried wolf,” Mikus told The Hill. “It became an attack that never stuck.” Mikus added that Harris’s most likely path to victory in Pennsylvania runs through the suburbs of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, a virtual world away from the southwestern regions of the state that were the site of its natural gas boom. “Now that she has stated her position, I really don’t think it’s going to have much of an impact here,” he said. “People who are strongly in favor of fracking to the point that it affects who they’re going to vote for, they’ve already picked a side.”

Harris Grabs Green New Deal Network Endorsement That Eluded Biden - Vice President Kamala Harris has captured the support of a key coalition of progressive, youth-led and environmental justice-focused climate advocates, with the Green New Deal Network slated on Wednesday to announce its endorsement of her candidacy.The development can cut two ways for the Democrats. On the one hand, it’s a boost for Harris from members of a voter segment that analysts agree will be key to victory in November. On the other hand, it’s fodder for former President Donald Trump’s campaign as it coalesces around a strategy of painting Harris as a radical leftist who will block U.S. oil and gas development. Whether it helps or hurts Harris, the endorsement shows how the Democrats’ late-season candidate switch has upended the 2024 campaign among climate voters.The Green New Deal Network never gave its endorsement to President Joe Biden, who had rankled coalition members on a wide variety of issues, from his support of Israel in its Gaza offensive to his approval of a large fossil fuel project in Alaska. Although Biden has taken historic action on climate change, polls showed that he never regained traction with the young voters who lifted him to victory in battleground states in 2020. The Green New Deal Network said it sees Harris as bringing to the race a unique record of opposition to Big Oil and an ability to communicate forcefully on environmental justice as a woman of color.“This has really lit a candle of hope for a lot of us that have been in the doldrums for the past year or so,” said Kaniela Ing, national director of the Green New Deal Network.He said the support is not just about climate, but also represents hope for more robust U.S. policy to protect the people of Gaza and Harris’ voice as a champion of abortion rights and communities burdened by pollution. Ing himself is a Native Hawaiian who has written about the combination of historic social injustice and climate change that has threatened his home island of Maui, devastated by deadly wildfire a year ago.“What the Green New Deal really is, is understanding that everything’s connected,” Ing said. “Making sure our tax dollars aren’t just going to kill children abroad, but to build schools and hospitals here at home. … Local control of resources, self-determination of our communities. That’s the vision Kamala Harris, given her background—being bused to schools, really being a product of a lot of our social programs—really understands.”The Green New Deal Network is a coalition of about 20 climate groups, among them the Sunrise Movement, the Climate Justice Alliance and Greenpeace. They are groups that support major government investment in solving the climate crisis and addressing historic social injustice “to actually meet the scale and scope that this crisis demands,” Ing said.Last year, the network participated in campaigns that led to passage of Green New Deal-oriented legislation in 13 states, including New York, Delaware and Minnesota. And the network is pushing for federal legislation to invest in a massive green overhaul in U.S. transportation.

Influential climate leaders endorse Kamala Harris for president - The Washington Post --More than 350 prominent climate advocates on Tuesday endorsed Vice President Harris for president, a sign that environmental leaders believe her campaign will energize like-minded voters in a way that President Biden could not.In a letter shared first with The Washington Post, big names in the environmental movement — including former U.S. climate envoy John F. Kerry, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D) — wrote that Harris has long prioritized climate actionand would continue to do so as president.“We know that protecting our planet for ourselves and future generations requires the kind of bold leadership that Kamala Harris has demonstrated her whole life,” they wrote. “We are proud to support her and be in the fight against climate change with her.”Inslee, whose ambitious climate proposals during his 2020 presidential campaign influenced Biden’s climate policies, said Harris could help mobilize young voters, a crucial Democratic constituency. Polls showthat climate change is a top concern for young people, who are more likely than older generations to face raging wildfires, rising seas and stronger storms in their lifetimes.

Wall Street Says a Trump Presidency Could Send Oil Prices Lower - A US election victory for former president Donald Trump could send oil prices lower, according to some prominent Wall Street banks. While the Republican nominee’s pledges to bolster the nation’s crude production are unlikely to be fulfilled, his imposition of trade tariffs could be bearish for prices, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. said in separate reports. If the tariffs severely affect the global economy, it could slash prices by as much as $11 to $19 a barrel next year, Goldman analysts led by head of oil research Daan Struyven wrote. His re-election would create “downside risks” to crude’s expected range of $75 to $90 a barrel, they said. The bank’s economists examined a scenario in which Trump imposes an across-the-board tariff of 10% on all goods imports, provoking a retaliatory levies of the same amount from other countries. The candidate has said he may target China with new tariffs ranging from 60% to as much as 100%. “A Trump administration continues to pose mostly bearish risks,” analysts at Citigroup including Eric Lee wrote, pointing to “trade, oil and gas policy,” and his influence on the OPEC+ producer alliance. Both banks added the caveat that Trump could also bolster oil prices if he renews the crackdown on Iranian exports deployed in his previous term. The former president had used a strategy of “maximum pressure” in an attempt — which ultimately failed — to renegotiate a nuclear pact with Tehran. Iranian output could fall by about 1 million barrels a day, or almost a third, during a second Trump term, Goldman projected. However, other exporters in OPEC+ would likely try to fill in the gap, limiting the boost to oil prices to roughly $9 a barrel. Despite Trump’s vow to bolster American oil production with a slogan of “drill, baby, drill,” the banks envisage little material impact on output, which is already at record levels. The most likely options available would include an increase in leasing and acreage auctions, and lifting any ban on leasing of the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, according to Citigroup. “Even though Trump appears to have a more oil and gas friendly agenda than a Democratic candidate, its immediate impact on physical oil markets is likely to be limited,” the bank said. “Broader market conditions look more binding on constraining US oil and gas production growth than regulatory factors.” Earlier this year, Citigroup forecast that a Trump win would strengthen the bank’s confidence in prices sinking to $60 a barrel in 2025. Conversely, Sanford C. Bernstein analysts predicted in January that oil prices could strengthen during a Trump administration if it squeezed shipments from Iran.

Elon Musk criticized for sharing AI-generated Kamala Harris video -- Elon Musk is being accused of violating the policies on his own social platform, X, after heshared a fake video of Vice President Harris that uses an artificial intelligence (AI) voice mimicking Harris to spew insults about her campaign and President Biden.The video musk shared Friday mocks a Harris campaign ad and features voiceover calling Biden “senile” and Harris the “ultimate diversity hire.” The video does not contain any disclaimer that it uses AI to mimic Harris’s voice, though the original post from the account @MrReaganUSA labels it a parody. Musk made no such distinction in his own post, a move that appears to violate X site policy barring “misleading media.” The Harris campaign knocked Musk over the video.“We believe the American people want the real freedom, opportunity, and security Vice President Harris is offering; not the fake, manipulated lies of Elon Musk and Donald Trump,” campaign spokesperson Mia Ehrenberg said in an email.California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) also called out the post, saying such videos should be against the law. “Manipulating a voice in an ‘ad’ like this one should be illegal,” he wrote on X. “I’ll be signing a bill in a matter of weeks to make sure it is.”Musk hit back at Newsom’s promise to ban the videos in a crude response early Monday morning. “I checked with renowned world authority, Professor Suggon Deeznutz, and he said parody is legal in America,” Musk wrote.The video hits on a number of attack lines against Harris. “I, Kamala Harris, am your Democrat candidate for president because Joe Biden finally exposed his senility at the debate,” the mock Harris voice says in the video. “I was selected because I am the ultimate diversity hire. I’m both a woman and a person of color, so if you criticize anything I say, you’re both sexist and racist.” Federal regulators have increasingly looked to crack down on the use of deepfake technology to impersonate politicians after a New Hampshire man used Biden’s voice in a robocall attempting to stifle turnout in the state’s primary election earlier this year.Public Citizen co-President Robert Weissman told The Associated Press that the post is likely to mislead the public.“I don’t think that’s obviously a joke,” Weissman said. “I’m certain that most people looking at it don’t assume it’s a joke. The quality isn’t great, but it’s good enough. And precisely because it feeds into preexisting themes that have circulated around her, most people will believe it to be real.”Public Citizen has advocated for federal regulation of generative AI. Weissman said the video is “the kind of thing that we’ve been warning about.”

Barbara Lee: Musk sharing fake Harris video shows need for AI guardrail - Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) denounced a deepfake video shared by Elon Musk impersonating Vice President Harris, adding support Monday for regulation of the use of artificial intelligence (AI). The video Musk shared Friday on social platform X mocks a Harris campaign ad and features voiceover calling Biden senile, and Harris the “ultimate diversity hire.” “I, Kamala Harris, am your Democrat candidate for president because Joe Biden finally exposed his senility at the debate,” the mock Harris voice says in the video. “I was selected because I am the ultimate diversity hire. I’m both a woman and a person of color, so if you criticize anything I say, you’re both sexist and racist.” Lee called the video “dangerous” and went after Musk personally in a CNN interview Monday. “Well, in addition to it being disgusting, it shows you just how dangerous [ Musk] is and how dangerous it is for social media not to have guardrails,” she said. “And how we need to make sure that as we look at AI and move forward, that there are some regulatory guardrails and rules that it has to follow.” “Otherwise, we’re going to see all kinds of unfortunate things happen, which are fake, which shows that anyone can say anything about anyone or do anything and not have any accountability. And accountability is so important,” she continued. “It really is very dangerous. And we need to step up and call for some kind of accountability,” Lee said. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) also called out the post, saying such videos should be against the law. “Manipulating a voice in an ‘ad’ like this one should be illegal,” he wrote on X. “I’ll be signing a bill in a matter of weeks to make sure it is.”Federal regulators have increasingly looked to crack down on the use of deepfake technology to impersonate politicians after a New Hampshire man used Biden’s voice in a robocallattempting to stifle turnout in the state’s primary election earlier this year. The Federal Communications Commission advanced a proposal last week to force advertisers to disclose the use of AI in advertisements on television and radio. The use of mimic voices is already banned for use in robocalls.

Trump Suggests Paying off $35 Trillion National Debt With Bitcoin — Wants US to Be Leader in Crypto – Former U.S. President Donald Trump emphasized the importance of the U.S. leading in cryptocurrency, suggesting that the government could pay off its $35 trillion national debt with bitcoin. He described crypto as “a different form of currency” that is already “prominent” and “massive,” stating that “it’s going to end up benefiting the country.Former U.S. President and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump discussed cryptocurrency in an interview with Fox Business on Friday. He was asked how he plans to enhance the prominence of crypto in the U.S. following his recent promises at a bitcoin conference.“You have to understand about crypto. Crypto is a very interesting thing, very high level in certain ways, intellectually very high level,” Trump began. He reiterated his stance that if the U.S. doesn’t embrace crypto, China and other countries will. “So we might as well be at the forefront,” he opined.“There are people in crypto that are very, very smart people who do love our country, and they think it’s good,” Trump noted, adding: Who knows, maybe we’ll pay off our $35 trillion. Hand them a little crypto check … hand them a little bitcoin and wipe out our $35 trillion.The former president was pressed with the question: “How do you want it to be more prominent in America? How will that work?” Trump replied: “Oh, it’s going to work easily. It’s already prominent.” He continued: “It’s moving along. It’s very loosely regulated. That’s one of the reasons it’s moving along.”He emphasized the importance of the U.S. embracing crypto to avoid falling behind other countries. “We have the people that are the leaders” in the crypto field, Trump noted, adding: “I know some of them. They’re very smart.” He stressed: “And if we don’t embrace it, other countries are going to embrace it. Other countries will anyway, but we can be the leader, and we might as well be the leader.”Trump pointed out that the market cap for crypto is already bigger than many companies and countries. “It’s a massive thing already,” he explained, stating: It is a different form of a currency, and it’s going to end up benefiting the country. The former president also criticized the Biden administration’s attempts to shut down crypto, questioning Biden’s understanding and capability to do so, and suggesting that Biden doesn’t grasp what crypto truly is.

As Trump Suggests Crypto as a Fix to U.S. Debt, Harris Camp Highlights His Remarks -Former President Donald Trump heaped more praise on the "very, very smart people" of the crypto industry in an interview broadcast on Friday, suggesting that the U.S. embracing Bitcoin (BTC) could aid in addressing the $35 trillion U.S. national debt."Who knows? Maybe we'll pay off our $35 trillion dollars, hand them a little crypto check, right?" Trump suggested to Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo in an interview. "We'll hand them a little bitcoin and wipe out our $35 trillion."Though Vice President Kamala Harris, his presumptive Democratic opponent in the presidential race, hasn't yet made any policy statements about her own view on cryptocurrency, one of her campaign accounts on X – the "rapid response" campaign effort – seemed to slam Trump's view by airing his comments.Most of Trump's remarks suggested his primary interest is in the U.S.'s competitive position with China, though he also issued a dig at President Joe Biden's administration and its crypto position."Biden's trying to shut it down– Biden doesn't have the intellect to shut it down," Trump said. "Can you imagine this guy's telling you to shut something down like that? He has no idea what the hell it is. But if we don't embrace it, it's going to be embraced by other people."So far, the former president has drawn hefty support from prominent crypto advocates. There are signs that some in the sector are also considering support for Harris, though they're eager to hear what she thinks.Below is a transcript of Trump's answers to Bartiromo's questions on crypto: "Crypto is a very interesting thing. Very high-level in certain ways, intellectually very high-level. But if we don't do it, China's going to do it. China's going to do it anyway. But if we don't do it, China's doing it. China is already doing it, and if we don't do it, other countries are going to do it. So we might as well be at the forefront. And there are people in crypto that are very, very smart people who do love our country, and they think it's-- they think it's good. Who knows? Maybe we'll pay off our $35 trillion dollars, hand them a little crypto check, right? We'll hand them a little bitcoin and wipe out our $35 trillion." …"It's already prominent. It's moving along. It's very loosely regulated. That's one of the reasons it's moving along. But it is a different form of a currency, and it's going to end up benefiting the country. But if we shut it down like, you know, Biden's trying to shut it down-- Biden doesn't have the intellect to shut it down. Can you imagine this guy's telling you to shut something down like that? He has no idea what the hell it is. But if we don't embrace it, it's going to be embraced by other people. You know, it's a massive thing already. Did you read where it's bigger than any company in the world already, if you look at the market. It's bigger than many countries. It's a very big thing. If we're not going to be the leader– we have the people that are the leaders. I know some of them. They're very smart. And if we don't embrace it, other countries are going to embrace it. Other countries will anyway, but we can be the leader. We might as well be the leader."

Donald Trump Gives a Speech on Not Letting China Win the Crypto Race – Not Realizing China Banned Crypto Mining and Transactions Four Years Ago - by Pam Martens and Russ Martens Last Saturday, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump delivered a speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Tennessee. Throughout the speech, Trump pushed the idea that the United States “cannot let China dominate” in the race to innovate with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. At 46 minutes and 10 seconds (46:10) on this CSPAN video of the Trump speech, you can hear Trump say this to the audience: “America will become the world’s undisputed bitcoin mining powerhouse. You’ll be a bitcoin mining powerhouse. You will not have to move your family to China. We will not be moving to China. As we implement these reforms, Bitcoin and crypto will grow our economy, cement American financial dominance and strengthen our entire country, long into the future….” Trump, as well as his speechwriter, are apparently unaware that in September of 2021, ten Chinese agencies, including the PBOC, the central bank of China, banned crypto mining and crypto transactions in that country, following a May 2021 ban on financial institutions engaging in crypto transactions. Trump being unaware that China figured out ahead of the U.S. that crypto posed a national security and financial stability threat to the country added to the speciousness of his remarks. At one point, Trump compared the crypto venture capitalists at the conference to “modern-day Edisons and Wright brothers and Carnegies and Henry Fords,” ignoring the mounting evidence from thousands of scientists that both crypto and blockchain are a sham in terms of a useful technology and pose a grave threat to heating the planet from their mining operations. In January 2022, Senator Elizabeth Warren and other Democrats in Congress investigated the inherent dangers between crypto, energy usage and the heating of the planet. A press statement summarized their concerns as follows:“Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, and the United States’ share of Bitcoin mining increased from 4% in August 2019 to 35% in July 2021. This share of mining is growing even more rapidly after China’s crackdown on crypto-mining, which left 500,000 mining operations looking for new locations. This could push North America to represent over 40% of the total global computing power dedicated to mining Bitcoin. As more cryptomining operations proliferate in the United States, the extraordinary energy use raises alarms about massive carbon emissions and the impacts of this energy consumption on consumer energy prices. A recent study estimated that cryptomining in upstate New York raised annual electric bills by about $165 million for small businesses and $79 million for consumers.”According to a report published by the United Nations University and Earth’s Future journal, “during the 2020–2021 period, the global Bitcoin mining network consumed 173.42 Terawatt hours of electricity. This means that if Bitcoin were a country, its energy consumption would have ranked 27th in the world, ahead of a country like Pakistan, with a population of over 230 million people. The resulting carbon footprint was equivalent to that of burning 84 billion pounds of coal or operating 190 natural gas-fired power plants. To offset this footprint, 3.9 billion trees should be planted, covering an area almost equal to the area of the Netherlands, Switzerland, or Denmark or 7% of the Amazon rainforest. ”The report also found this: “The UN scientists report that Bitcoin mining heavily relies on fossil energy sources, with coal accounting for 45% of Bitcoin’s energy supply mix, followed by natural gas (21%). Hydropower, a renewable energy source with significant water and environmental impacts, is the most important renewable source of energy of the Bitcoin mining network, satisfying 16% of its electricity demand. Nuclear energy has a considerable share of 9% in Bitcoin’s energy supply mix, whereas renewables such as solar and wind only provide 2% and 5% of the total electricity used by Bitcoin.”Bitcoin mining involves massive banks of computers being used to solve complex math problems which have no practical use to society. The incentive to build these crypto “mines” and solve the math problems is simply to get rewarded with the payment of Bitcoins. Any rational person would have to seriously question if the fossil fuels industry is behind this insane business model. In July 2019, NYU Professor and economist Nouriel Roubini summed up his findings on crypto like this:“Crypto currencies are not even currencies. They’re a joke…The price of Bitcoin has fallen in a week by how much – 30 percent. It goes up 20 percent one day, collapses the next. It is not a means of payment, nobody, not even this blockchain conference, accepts Bitcoin for paying for conference fees cause you can do only five transactions per second with Bitcoin. With the Visa system you can do 25,000 transactions per second…Crypto’s nonsense. It’s a failure. Nobody’s using it for any transactions. It’s trading one sh*tcoin for another sh*tcoin. That’s the entire trading or currency in the space where’s there’s price manipulation, spoofing, wash trading, pump and dumping, frontrunning. It’s just a big criminal scam and nothing else.” Trump wasn’t always a fan of crypto or Bitcoin. In 2019, he posted the Tweet below, calling crypto “based on thin air.” That previous assessment was in line with 1600 scientists and technology experts who sent a letter on June 1, 2022 to the leadership of key U.S. Senate and House Committees. In the letter, they wrote this: “We strongly disagree with the narrative—peddled by those with a financial stake in the crypto-asset industry—that these technologies represent a positive financial innovation and are in any way suited to solving the financial problems facing ordinary Americans… “As software engineers and technologists with deep expertise in our fields, we dispute the claims made in recent years about the novelty and potential of blockchain technology. Blockchain technology cannot, and will not, have transaction reversal or data privacy mechanisms because they are antithetical to its base design. Financial technologies that serve the public must always have mechanisms for fraud mitigation and allow a human-in-the-loop to reverse transactions; blockchain permits neither.”

Trump, Republicans are shifting on cryptocurrency. Beware. - By The Washington Post Editorial Board --When he was president a few years ago, Donald Trump called it “a scam.”Nothing much has changed about cryptocurrency since then. In fact, the biggest news has been the spectacular crash of cryptocurrency exchange FTX and the conviction of its founder on fraud charges. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset with no intrinsic value. It is used almost exclusively to speculate or to engage in shady businesses, such as selling drugs or collecting ransom, for which the anonymous nature of crypto accounts comes in handy.The former president, however, has changed his tune, promising to make the United States the “crypto capital of the planet.” And the Republican Party seems eager to follow. Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.)has proposed that the federal government purchase around 5 percent of the world’s bitcoin supply to build a strategic reserve such as the ones the United States has for oil and gold. Mr. Trump’s pivot attests to a new power emerging in American politics: a class of technological entrepreneurs and venture capitalists uncomfortable with government regulations intended to protect American consumers. Crypto backers are staking their considerable fortunes on Republicans in 2024. Fairshake, a pro-crypto super PAC, has raised more than $200 million. The Winklevoss twins — big crypto investors who launched the Gemini crypto exchange — have contributed millions of dollars. Venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, perhaps the biggest investors in crypto firms, have offered support to pro-Trump PACs. Silicon Valley entrepreneur Peter Thiel helped launch the political career of Sen. JD Vance (Ohio), who is now Mr. Trump’s running mate. Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin are bits of code created when a computer solves some complicated mathematical problem. Their core appeal comes from the fact that their supply is dictated by an algorithm, and transactions are validated automatically, on what look like enormous public online spreadsheets. Advertisement The “value” of the so-called tokens does not rely on the government. This gives them a unique advantage in the eyes of conspiracy theorists — and criminals — wary of the state. They are safe from the machinations of obscure technocrats at the Treasury Department or the Federal Reserve. But this means that, unlike dollars, whose value is anchored in the substantial trust that investors around the world have in the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve, the value of the tokens relies entirely on what other investors would be willing to pay for them. In this way, they are a bit like digital baseball cards (without the pictures). Untethered to anything real, their price soars and plummets wildly. The crypto lobby now supports MAGA to push back against Biden administration regulators who have been trying to install some guardrails to protect investors. Advertisement Gary Gensler, the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission, has proposed that crypto assets be considered securities, subject to the same regulatory constraints covering other securities. The SEC has sued some crypto firms — such as Coinbase and Ripple — for failing to follow basic federal consumer protection guidelines. This is hardly unreasonable, because it aims to offer investors in bitcoin and other tokens similar protections to those that cover other financial products. But the crypto lobby is up in arms. And it has not only convinced Mr. Trump that Mr. Gensler should be fired; it has also convinced some Republicans to support plowing the federal government’s own resources into this volatile asset class. Consider Ms. Lummis’s plan for the government to buy 5 percent of the roughly 19.5 million bitcoins in circulation. On Wednesday they would have cost about $63 billion. A year ago, the Treasury could have picked them up for some $29 billion. Like any speculative asset, they could easily drop in value again. But the government would have to buy bitcoin from current holders of the cryptocurrency — that is, the ones currently doing the lobbying.There is a precedent for a Lummis-like experiment. The government of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador invested more than $100 million of its scant reserves in bitcoin a few years ago and made it legal tender in the country. Soon after, the International Monetary Fund warned the country about the “large risks associated with the use of bitcoin on financial stability, financial integrity, and consumer protection.” Mr. Trump’s old crypto skepticism was correct, and it still is. Americans should see nothing appealing about Republicans’ shift to please a new interest group seeking to sell a risky product without limitation — and, indeed, their plan to use taxpayer money to help these wealthy investors.

Fed's Powell: 'Nothing new going on' with CBDC — Creating a digital dollar is not on the Federal Reserve's agenda, nor will it be anytime soon, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday.Powell said the Fed continues to track central bank digital currency, or CBDC, developments around the globe, but has no interest in creating one of its own. "There's really nothing new going on at all," he said when asked about the controversial currency during his post Federal Open Market Committee press conference. "We don't have the authority to issue a retail CBDC that's available to the public. We're not seeking that authority."Powell added that it is important for the Fed to study the technology — along with various other payments-focused innovations — given the significant role it plays in international transactions. He acknowledged that some major economies are working toward rolling out their own digital currencies, but noted that the U.S. is a long way from that point."No one here has decided that we think it's a good idea," Powell said.

In calls for government reserve, bitcoin backers eye legitimacy -- Prominent politicians, including a sitting member of the Senate Banking Committee, want the federal government to play an active role in the bitcoin market. During Bitcoin 2024, a conference held over the weekend in Nashville, Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., announced legislation that would require the U.S. government to acquire roughly 5% of the cryptocurrency's global supply — valued at nearly $70 billion today — and hold it as a "strategic reserve."At the same event, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump endorsed the federal government treating bitcoins seized from criminals as an investment. Meanwhile, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running a longshot independent bid for the White House, called for purchasing 4 million bitcoins, roughly quadruple what the Lummis proposal calls for.The machinations of these policies are fuzzy. For example, Lummis called for financing the strategic reserve with "excess reserves" at the 12 Federal Reserve Banks, though the term "excess reserves" was retired in 2020 when the Fed eliminated its policy on minimum reserve requirements. When such reserves existed, those funds belonged to commercial banks, not the government. Caitlin Long, founder and CEO of Custodia Bank and strong advocate of the crypto industry, said in a post on X — formerly known as Twitter — that the senator misspoke."Yeah, I wouldn't have used the term 'excess reserves' here [because] that's a defined term in banking and it's not what [Lummis] means here," Long wrote. "As she said, the bill hasn't been released yet and she's welcoming co-sponsors. When the bill draft is out, I believe this will all become clear."For now, it is also unclear how the strategic reserve would be managed or how holding bitcoin would achieve the stated purpose of the proposal: Bolstering the price of the U.S. dollar, reining in inflation and reducing the national debt. Lummis equated the proposed reserve to the government's gold bullion holdings as well as its emergency stock of oil, though neither of those are used to influence currency prices or government finance.

"We Have No Choice": Delta CEO Prepares Legal Battle Against CrowdStrike After IT Outage Sparked $500M Loss -Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian announced on Wednesday that the global IT outage sparked by CrowdStrike cost the airline $500 million. Bastian told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday that the carrier would seek damages from the disruptions, adding, "We have no choice." "If you're going to be having access, priority access to the Delta ecosystem in terms of technology, you've got to test the stuff you got. You can't come into a mission critical 24/7 operation and tell us we have a bug," Bastian said. Bastian added, "We have to protect our shareholders. We have to protect our customers, our employees, for the damage, not just to the cost of it, but to the brand, the reputational damage and the physical channel." The faulty update from CrowdStrike led the airline to cancel more than 4,000 flights earlier this month.

Data Shows that Crypto Scams and Hacks are Growing in 2024 --Crypto scams and hacks are growing this year as scrupulous individuals work to make a quick buck in the industry.Data shows that the total value hacked (TVH) has jumped to over $8.56 billion in the past few years. Most of these hacks, or $6.03 billion, happened in the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) industry, while the rest happened in bridges. The most recent hacks happened in Astroport, DeltaPrime, ETHTrustFund, Rho Markets, WazirX, and Lifi Finance. Meanwhile, WazirX’s hack was notable since it was one of the biggest crypto exchanges in India. The hackers stole over $234 million worth of tokens. Bittensor users lost over $8 million, while those in BtcTurk lost over $54 million to hackers. Meanwhile, the number of scams in the crypto industry is growing. On Thursday, Alvin Bragg, the District Attorney in New York, charged Michael Lauchlan with stealing from Coin Dispute Network (CDN) customers, a sham crypto asset recovery firm.According to Bragg, Lauchlan deceived customers that he would help them trace their lost or stolen cryptocurrencies. His firm received the fees and also extracted additional Ether tokens. Bragg said:“By manipulating customers with false promises and pocketing a fee, Michael Lauchlan allegedly engaged in a scheme that defrauded dozens of people and stole from at least three New Yorkers. This investigation is ongoing.”The DA charges came a day after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) charged Nader Al-Naji, the founder of BitClout, with fraud and offered unregistered securities. The SEC alleged that Naji raised over $257 million from investors like Sequoia, Coinbase, and a16z. According to the SEC, Naji promised his investors that proceeds from BitClout’s BTCLT token would be used to run the operations. Instead, he used the funds to pay for luxury items, including a $7 million mansion in Beverly Hills.The SEC has announced other crypto-related scams this year. It recently charged 17 individuals in a $300 million crypto asset ponzi scheme through CryptoFx. In another case, the SEC charged Brenda Chunga, known as Bitcoin Beautee, for running a $1.7 million Bitcoin HyperFund pyramid scheme. It also charged Brian Sewell and Rockwell Capital Management for fraud that cost customers over $1.5 million. Sadly, most crypto scams are never reported, and their creators get away. One of the fastest areas of scams is t oken sales, where anonymous people raise money and, at times, fail to list their tokens.

FBI Issues New Warning If You Buy Crypto From An Exchange -With the billions of dollars held by cryptocurrency exchanges, it’s little surprise to find them being actively targeted by scammers. The FBI has just warned that scammers are “impersonating cryptocurrency exchange employees to steal funds.” As scams go, this is fairly simple. An unexpected call or text from a supposed exchange staffer warns the consumer that there’s an issue with the account, suggesting that a theft or fraud might be underway. Then login details are either requested or a login link provided. Either way, those credentials are then misused.While no details have been released as regards a specific campaign, this is just the latest socially engineered campaign that plays a frightening numbers game—call many, fool few. I’d hope that most of you reading this wouldn’t ever disclose login details to any such call. Remember, banks and exchanges will never request security credentials. You’d always be asked to login the usual way.With that in mind, if you do receive a call from an exchange—or any other financial institution, always assume the caller is a fraudster unless they’re able to identify themselves beyond’s any reasonable doubt. You can always insist on calling back using usual contact numbers.The FBI’s advice if you do receive such a call is straightforward:

If you receive a call or message indicating any kind of account problem or compromise, do not respond, even if it appears official and indicates you must act immediately.
Hang up. Call the cryptocurrency exchange's official phone number to verify if there is a problem. Do not use any phone number the caller provides.
Do not go to any websites or click on links the caller sends you. Navigate to the official cryptocurrency exchange website separately.
If anyone asks for your account log-in information at any point, do not provide it.
Avoid clicking links, downloading files, or opening attachments in unsolicited messages.
Be cautious of services that claim they can recover any lost cryptocurrency funds.

If you do believe you have been defrauded, then contact the exchange immediately and you can also report the suspected crime to the FBI’s IC3 at www.ic3.gov.It’s only three months since the FBI’s last crypto warning, which was a much more sophisticated token impersonation scam. This, by contrast, is ridiculously simple.Whether it’s crypto or simple banking, call scams are surging in the US. In its “State of the Call” report published earlier this year, Hiya reported that “threats to the security and trustworthiness of voice calls also remain as prevalent as ever–and have only grown worse over the past year.”

BitClout Founder Al-Naji Faces Charges Over $257 Million Fraud Scheme The founder allegedly portrayed BitClout as a decentralized project, launching under the pseudonym “Diamondhands,” to falsely suggest it was autonomous while he controlled it.The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) charged Nader Al-Naji with orchestrating a multi-million-dollar fraudulent crypto asset scheme involving the social media platform BitClout and its native token BTCLT.The securities regulator’s complaint revealed that Al-Naji raised over $257 million through unregistered offers and sales of BTCLT in November 2020. In the process, the exec allegedly misled investors by claiming the funds would not be used for his or other BitClout employees’ compensation.However, the complaint accuses Al-Naji of spending over $7 million of these funds on personal expenses, including renting a mansion in Beverly Hills and giving lavish cash gifts to family members.According to the complaint released earlier this week, the SEC alleged that Al-Naji portrayed BitClout as a decentralized project to evade regulatory scrutiny and give the impression that no company was behind it. He is believed to have used the pseudonym “Diamondhands” to create the illusion of autonomy.The SEC also claimed that Al-Naji secured a letter from a prominent law firm, based on his mischaracterizations, suggesting BTCLT were not likely securities under federal law and even told certain investors that he was engaging in this subterfuge to avoid legal compliance.Commenting on the charges, Gurbir S. Grewal, Director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement, said,“As alleged in our complaint, Al-Naji attempted to evade the federal securities laws and defraud the investing public, mistakenly believing that ‘being “fake” decentralized generally confuses regulators and deters them from going after you.’ He is obviously wrong: as we have shown time and again, and as reflected in the SEC’s detailed allegations here, we are guided by economic realities, not cosmetic labels.”Al-Naji’s wife, mother, and wholly-owned entities are also named in the complaint as relief defendants for the investor funds he directed to them. In a parallel investigation, the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York has brought charges against Al-Naji.

CFTC subpoenas Ben ‘BitBoy’ Armstrong’s former company in fraud investigation, asks about activity for tokens such as BEN --The CFTC is looking into possibly fraudulent crypto activity carried out by unknown individuals, which may have involved 15 tokens including the memecoin BEN.The agency issued a subpoena on July 16 to Hit Network, the crypto-focused media company that previously had Ben Armstrong — known as “BitBoy” — as its public face. The subpoena, seen by The Block, requests information about trading activity and digital wallets connected with the 15 tokens. It states that this is part of an investigation into persons engaged in fraud with respect to digital currencies and related unlawful conduct.Armstrong featured all of the tokens mentioned in various videos. For instance, according to the title of aYouTube video, one of them had the best potential to rise 100X in price. The subpoena did not make any reference to Armstrong.The videos mentioning the tokens — except for BEN — were made in or prior to March 2021 under the BitBoy Crypto branding. That month, Hit Network was formed as a media company with Armstrong as the host of its flagship show.Armstrong was part of the company until August 2023, when he was removed by current CEO T.J. Shedd over allegations of substance abuse (Armstrong later admitted to taking diet pills and steroids but denied taking hard drugs). After his departure, Armstrong was arrested for turning up at a former business partner’s house in the hope of reclaiming a disputed Lamborghini. He is currently in litigation against Hit Network over his exit and the vehicle.In a statement, Armstrong claimed that his former colleagues took over financial control of the BitBoy Crypto brand in 2020 and made various accusations about them, similar to those he’s made online. He said he “could not be more happy about” the subpoena.

Revolut gets more tools to compete with banks -- London-based fintech Revolut's move to compete more directly with banks is making progress via a banking license from the U.K.'s Prudential Regulation Authority and the launch of cash deposits for consumers in the country. The accounts enable customers to deposit funds directly with Revolut, which says that 71% of its consumers in the U.K. use another bank or financial institution for savings. Revolut is partnering with payments technology firm Paysafe to support the deposit product, which will gradually become available in markets outside of the U.K. in the coming months. To use the service, consumers open their Revolut app, click "add money" and select "deposit cash" as an option. The app then generates a barcode that the consumer can scan at a network of 12,000 merchants to make deposits. The deposit service comes as Revolut, which has its roots as a digital payments company, receives a banking license, which will make it easier to add lending and other financial services in competition with Monzo, other U.K. challenger banks and traditional financial institutions. Revolut's U.K. license will be limited for about 12 months, during which it cannot hold more than about $70,000 in deposits for each consumer. The U.K. is Revolut's largest market, with more than 9 million clients out of the firm's 45 million customers globally. While Revolut has a 6-year-old banking license in Lithuania that it uses to offer financial services such as loans and credit cards in the E.U., it has been trying to get a banking license in the U.K. for three years. In the U.S., Revolut is attempting to build a financial "super app" through a series of consumer and merchant-focused services that it has added over the past three years in an attempt to compete with Block and PayPal. The firm's other recent rollouts include Revolut Shops, which enables consumers to buy from a network of thousands of brands and receive cash back incentives. Another product, Revolut Pay, provides a single-click option at checkout for e-commerce sellers, providing an additional option alongside Apple Pay, Google Pay and cards. —John Adams

Dorsey shakes up Block management to boost sales and innovation - When Block paid $29 billion for Afterpay in 2021, it enabled the payments company to ride the coattails of buy now/pay later lending. Three years later, the acquisition is also contributing to a much larger change in Block's management culture. The payment company has named Afterpay co-founder Nick Monlar as its head of sales across Block — a key part of a strategy to change how Block builds and sells products. "It will result in much better technology, much better design and much better products," said Jack Dorsey, CEO of Square, during Thursday's earnings call. For the quarter ending June 30, Block reported total net revenue of $6.16 billion, up 11% from $5.5 billion the prior year. Gross profit was $2.23 billion, up 20% from about $1.9 billion the prior year. Earnings per share was $0.98, better than CNBC analysts' expectations of $0.84. Analysts predicted total net revenue of $6.28 billion. As Dorsey works to generate a new period of growth for Block following a technology industry slowdown in 2022 and 2023, he is trying to improve how the company responds to opportunities. Block is migrating away from organizing along business lines such as its Cash App, Square, Tidal and other units toward a structure that focuses on functions such as engineering, product development, sales and other tasks. "This means an employee's discipline, such as engineering, design, product or sales will drive who they report to and how they work," Dorsey said, adding that Molnar will focus on improving focus on Block's merchant-facing Square unit and connecting Square's ecosystem and scale with Block's Cash App, which Dorsey said would be a differentiator for the company. Afterpay has been a solid performer for Block, which reported Afterpay's gross merchandise revenue, or the measure of the full value of the business, was up 21% in the past year. "With this reorganization, we'll be able to move faster with new technology such as the new AI models that have been coming into the market," Dorsey said, indirectly referencing generative AI, which payment companies are using to improve internal work, marketing, security and other tasks. "This technology will really level the playing field for us." While Block's reorganization may be taken as a sign of weaker near-term trends, it is ultimately positive for the company, said Jeffries analysts in a research note, adding that there were indications that the previous structure created friction that slowed decision-making and contributed to a decline in growth for Block's gross payment volume, or the total monetary value of all transactions. This weaker GPV growth is due to Block not having adequately improved products and its ability to deliver them at a speed and scale that can draw larger merchants, Jeffiries said. Block has already moved away from a structure that placed a general manager in charge of different products with their own product teams, and shifted to a reporting structure that is designed to optimize allocation of resources across the entire company, Jeffiries said. "It says to us that Block is willing to make significant changes, which we believe are necessary to change the U.S. GPV trajectory," Jeffries said.

The unexpected tools that could fix bank-fintech regulation - As regulators look to close gaps in their supervision of bank-fintech partnerships, some say solutions can be found in underused parts of the existing legal framework.During the past two weeks, federal banking agencies have issued a joint request for information about bank-fintech partnerships and — via a proposed rule from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. — sought to roll back Trump era policies around brokered deposits that some say facilitated the rapid growth of this sector while exposing banks and customers alike to new risks.Banks and financial technology groups alike say better outcomes could be had if supervisors and fintechs had more direct dialogues. Conversations can sometimes be arranged on an ad hoc basis, but industry participants say a more formal relationship between the two sides could be beneficial."The path to regulatory clarity requires collaborating with responsible industry participants," said Phil Goldfeder, CEO of the American Fintech Council. "We need to streamline the current patchwork of rules and regulations and ensure fair and consistent enforcement throughout our industry."Though not stated explicitly, the recent moves appear to target recent failures within the fintech space that have had ripple effects in the banking industry, namely the collapse of Voyager Digital in 2022 and this year's bankruptcy of Synapse Financial, which has left thousands of customers unable to access funds. Jess Cheng, a former Federal Reserve lawyer and current partner at Wilson Sonsini, said this was apparent in the joint request for information and the accompanying statement on risks."Operational risk is front and center, and it really brings to the forefront the different models," Cheng said. "If you have a middleware provider like Synapse versus a model where there's just a bank and a fintech company, given the number of risks and considerations listed in the statement, it seems there's some favoring of the simpler model, the lower operational risk model with fewer parties involved."During the FDIC's hearing on brokered deposits, Chair Martin Gruenberg noted that the 2020 rule change allowed groups such as Voyager to be exempt from registering as brokers.One option for improving communication between regulators and fintechs would be for agencies to classify more companies as significant service providers, a designation that would — under authorities of the Bank Service Company Act — enable agencies to supervise those companies directly.

Democrats push stronger consumer protections for Zelle-related fraud -Three Democratic lawmakers are trying to bolster the Electronic Fund Transfer Act to expand the number of instances where a consumer is protected from fraudulent or scam activity, a reaction to mounting political pressure against the bank-led payment app Zelle.Sens. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., introduced their bill in the Senate on Thursday, while Rep. Maxine Waters, R-Calif., proposed companion legislation in the House on Friday. The bills aim to protect customers who are tricked into initiating a payment to a bad actor. The Electronic Fund Transfer Act currently guarantees refunds for consumers who are victims of fraud when the payment wasn't authorized. The Democratic-proposed expansion would mandate shared liability for unauthorized or fraudulent payments between a consumer's bank and the institution that receives the fund, alongside other institutions that "materially help facilitate the payments." "Zelle's speed and convenience have made it a target for bad actors looking to trick unsuspecting consumers out of their hard-earned money," Blumenthal said in a statement. "Despite t his growing threat, Zelle and the banks that own it have failed to implement adequate safeguards and reimbursement policies to make consumers whole when they fall victim to scams and fraud." While the bills aren't limited to Zelle, they come on the heels of a hearing of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, where Blumenthal serves as chairman, and a report from that panel. Blumenthal questioned witnesses at the hearing, including representatives of JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America — the three largest banks that share ownership of Zelle's parent company Early Warning Services, alongside a representative of EWS.

JPMorgan says it will challenge CFPB over Zelle enforcement — JPMorgan Chase said in a regulatory filing that it has received inquiries from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau over fraud on the peer-to-peer payments platform Zelle, and that it might fight any ensuing enforcement action in court. The inquiries into Zelle comes amid increasing scrutiny in Washington of the payment app and allegations of frequent scams and fraud. Sens. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., alongside Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., introduced a bill earlier in the daythat would make it easier for customers to get refunds when they are tricked into authorizing a payment on Zelle and other payment platforms to a bad actor. The CFPB is also looking into Zelle, according to the JPMorgan filing, which came in its quarterly report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday evening. JPMorgan — alongside a number of other large banks, including Wells Fargo and Bank of America — co-owns Early Warning Services, the parent company of Zelle. JPMorgan said that it is "responding to inquiries" regarding fund transfers on Zelle. CFPB staff, the bank said, told JPMorgan that it has the authority to file an enforcement action on the subject. "The firm is evaluating next steps, including litigation," JPMorgan said in the filing. In a statement to American Banker, JPMorgan said that, "if necessary, we will not hesitate to seek assistance from courts to uphold the integrity of how these services are provided." "The CFPB is fully aware we already go above and beyond what the law requires, reimbursing for all unauthorized transactions and even for certain types of scams, so they should expect to be challenged to ensure their actions stay within the bounds of the law," the bank said.

Financial regulators request comment on data standards plan -The Federal Reserve Board on Friday joined eight other agencies in asking for public comment on a rule that would create data standards for information collected and submitted to financial regulators. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Treasury Department, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Credit Union Administration and Securities and Exchange Commission proposed a joint rulemaking to promote the "interoperability of financial regulatory data," as required by the Financial Data Transparency Act of 2022. The act directs federal financial agencies to issue individual rules adopting joint data standards for the collection of certain information. The agencies also are required to consult with each of the other departments and agencies. Once the final standards are established, the agencies will each issue separate rules and adopt the data collection standards.The agencies are expected to work together on the adoption of the established joint standards and to monitor developments related to data standards.

FDIC proposes overhaul of Change in Bank Control Act notice process - — Amid a flurry of new rules brought forward by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Tuesday, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra issued a proposal for comment to enable the FDIC to actively review the acquisition of shares in FDIC-supervised banks by large asset managers. Chairman Martin Gruenberg supported the proposal, noting that the FDIC would more rigorously scrutinize arrangements with the banks it primarily supervises. Gruenberg also emphasized that the agency will seek ways to uphold collaboration between the banking agencies as it takes public comment on the proposal. "I believe it is important that the FDIC, as the primary federal regulator of state non-member banks, closely reviews who is exercising direct or indirect control over its supervised institutions," said Gruenberg. "However, as I emphasized at the outset, the FDIC values and expects to continue its close collaboration with the Federal Reserve Board and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on matters related to changes in control affecting FDIC-supervised institutions and their respective holding companies." Under the Change in Bank Control Act, transactions at the holding company level are typically reviewed by both the Federal Reserve and the primary banking supervisor — in this case the FDIC. However, in some cases, the FDIC has not required such notices when the Federal Reserve Board has accepted "passivity commitments" from an investor — a formal understanding that the acquiring entity will not exert managerial control over the firm it is buying shares in. While the FDIC's current regulations often defer to the Fed, Chopra's proposal would give the FDIC a more active role in reviewing asset manager's compliance with the Change in Bank Control Act. The proposal also eliminates large investment funds' option to self-certify their control status over FDIC-regulated banks, instead directing examination staff to "analyze the ongoing interaction between an investor and the institution."

FDIC reverses course on Trump-era brokered deposits and ILC rules — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. issued two proposals Tuesday, one to revise its standards on banks accepting brokered deposits and another on approvals of new industrial loan company, or ILC, charters. FDIC Chair Gruenberg noted that the proposed changes — which Republican members Travis Hill and Jonathan McKernan opposed — aim to mitigate funding risks associated with brokered deposits that were exacerbated with the passage of the FDIC's current brokered deposit regulations in 2020. "The proposal would reduce operational challenges and reporting burdens on insured depository institutions by simplifying certain definitions, help ensure uniform and consistent reporting of brokered deposits and strengthen the safety and soundness of the banking system," Gruenberg said. "I am pleased to support this proposed rule and its publication for a 60 day comment period." Brokered deposits — funds obtained by a bank through a third-party broker or agent, rather than from direct depositors and sometimes known as "hot money" — can be more volatile and less stable than traditional retail deposits because they are often driven by the pursuit of higher interest rates. Section 29 of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act allows the FDIC to restrict brokered deposits at banks as well as restricting less-than-well-capitalized banks from accepting brokered deposits. The proposal effectively reverses the 2020 Trump-era FDIC rule, which narrowed the definition of deposit brokers and exempted certain types of deposits previously considered brokered from those rules. The proposal would classify sweep deposits as brokered regardless of whether the deposits were placed on behalf of an affiliate of the partner bank or not. Sweep deposits are an arrangement where funds are automatically transferred between a customer's primary account and a secondary account in search of maximizing interest or minimizing fees. The proposal would also eliminate the exemption of third parties with exclusive arrangements with one bank from brokered deposit rules. The current rules state that a broker is considered exempt if less than a quarter of its assets are placed at banks or when "all customer deposits placed at depository institutions are placed into transaction accounts and no fees, interest or remuneration are being paid to the depositor." The proposal would narrow that primary purpose exemption to those broker-dealers or investment advisors placing less than 10% of their managed assets at firms. The proposal also consolidates the definition of deposit broker to more clearly delineate which firms are subject to the rules. For example, the proposal would no longer differentiate between the "placement" and "facilitation" of deposits, considering an entity a broker if it meets either of these criteria. The proposal also considers a third party a deposit broker if it proposes or determines deposit allocations through the "operation or use of an algorithm or functionally similar program or technology." The proposal also adds fees to the criteria used to define deposit brokers, meaning individuals that receive fees from customers — often banks — for deposit placement could be classified as deposit brokers. It also adds new criteria to the definition, such as whether brokers are paid fees for placing deposits. Banks will need to provide more detailed information about their deposits, especially when working with third parties, including filing applications with the FDIC to get approval for specific arrangements.

Senate Republicans ask FDIC to withdraw bank boards proposal — A group of Senate Banking Republicans have asked a bank regulator to withdraw its corporate governance and risk management guidelines.The lawmakers, led by Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., and joined by vice presidential candidate Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, and Senate Banking Committee ranking member Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., saidthat the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s proposal "represents a significantly flawed approach." "It will unduly burden banks that serve and operate in small and rural communities," the lawmakers said in a letter. "And, perhaps most concerningly, the proposal lacks consensus support among FDIC leadership, is out of step with other prudential regulators, and actively opposed by state supervisors." The FDIC's corporate governance guidance would require bank board directors to manage the risk profile of their financial institutions and would restrict directors from sitting on the boards of both a bank and its parent company.The proposal has garnered pushback from the banking industry, as well as the Conference of State Bank Supervisors, which represents state banking agencies. "It is unclear whether the FDIC considered the numerous state laws or the decades of legal jurisprudence surrounding them that the proposal would undermine," the Republicans led by Tillis said in the letter. The lawmakers also said that the FDIC would "blur the lines between the responsibilities of senior management and the responsibilities of the board."

FDIC leadership failed to implement harassment prevention measures: OIG — A report by the Office of the Inspector General for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. found agency leadership failed to see through sexual harassment prevention measures initiated in 2020, but acknowledged that the agency has begun to overhaul its programs for identifying and tracking harassment allegations. Despite the FDIC OIG issuing recommendations in response to deficiencies it found in a 2020 evaluation of the FDIC workplace, the agency watchdog says FDIC leadership failed to sustain corrective efforts, which allowed an environment of distrust and fear of retaliation at the agency to persist. The inspector general says the agency has begun to implement an action plan to address workplace culture."We found during our evaluation that the FDIC was not following the investigation procedures and had not updated the procedures since our last review; abandoned the tracking system and replaced it with one developed in-house which was no longer tracking the recommended data elements; and had not fully implemented the [Anti-Harassment Program] Oversight Plan," the report stated. "Therefore, in these cases, the FDIC has regressed on the progress that was made in response to our prior recommendations."In investigating the FDIC's compliance with its past recommendations, the OIG sent surveys to all 6,210 FDIC employees. They found that 191 employees — 7% of the 2,812 survey respondents — reported experiencing sexual harassment at the agency between April 2019 and January 2024. While this represents roughly the same number of respondents who said they had experienced harassment in the OIG's 2020 findings, the OIG notes the FDIC had only disclosed 34 allegations since April 2019, which they say "indicat[es] an underreporting of sexual harassment allegations."Nearly half of those who experienced harassment said they did not report it to the agency out of fear of retaliation, up from 38% who said the same in the OIG's prior survey. Employees did however report a better understanding of how to report incidents, with 71% of respondents aware of the channels available for filing reports, compared with 60% in the prior survey. The FDIC said it agreed with the report and is prioritizing the OIG's recommendations.“We agree with all of the recommendations in the report and are making substantial progress to address them," said an agency spokesperson. "The FDIC is committed to implementing an effective sexual harassment prevention program.”

BankThink: Banks are regulated like utilities. We desperately need a new model. | American Banker - Banks are treated more like utilities than innovators, and the industry desperately needs a makeover. But the situation banks face is not entirely their fault. The overburden of regulationhas created an environment where they cannot adopt new technology like other industries. While it's true that banks need to get their house in order from a governance, risk and compliance oversight standpoint, they also need to have a better working relationship with regulators to improve customer experience and shareholder value. Here is the hard part: Regulators and regulation have historically trailed innovation.Innovation, regulation and compliance are at a crossroads in today's banking ecosystem. Too many in the industry are focused on what happened in the past rather than paying attention to what's happening today and tomorrow. Take the situation happening with Citigroup for example. One of the largest financial institutions in the world was fined $136 million by regulators stemming from a 2020 consent order that was not properly rectified from a compliance standpoint.On the other hand, look at the banking-as-a-service fintech Synapse that just went under. The lack of any regulatory oversight here has led to approximately $160 million in user assets frozen on the company's platform due to Synapse's troubles. The rules and regulations from 2020 weren't being adopted by Citigroup, and the Synapse issue was clearly not addressed by today's rules either. Both examples, one focused on a large legacy banking institution, and the other a new wave fintech banking-as-a-service company, show regulatory challenges in different ways.For banks to thrive now, and in the future, they must prioritize innovation and technology while ensuring harmony with robust regulatory guidance and oversight. There is an ongoing shift in demographics, and providing millennials and Gen Z with a better customer experience is a major focus of financial institutions.Technology is a powerful asset for banks aiming to draw customers into their ecosystem. Credit unions excel at this, but traditional banks face dwindling foot traffic, especially among millennials who rarely visit branches. To attract customers, banks must deliver exceptional products, competitive rates and superior customer service. Regional banks, the backbone of lending in the country, are exploring strategies to differentiate themselves. From banking-as-a-service models to innovative apps, banks are working hard to add value for their customers, but are navigating uncharted and sometimes unregulated waters.Areas for technological advancements are rapidly growing in the banking ecosystem through channels like artificial intelligence, banking-as-a-service partnerships, SAFE banking for cannabis and digital assets in custody. However, regulation has not kept pace with these advancements. Banks face numerous internal issues that need addressing, and their success depends significantly on the direction they receive from regulators to implement successful strategies for internal compliance. The fact that banks want to embrace these technological advancements is a massive benefit, not only for the institutions themselves, but their customers and shareholders alike. However, regulation in banking has stifled some of this needed innovation and left banks in a precarious position. While banks are trying to advance, regulators are lagging, with outdated rules failing to address today's technological and digital asset realities. Consider the cannabis industry: Over 30 states have legalized it in some form, yet banking remains a gray area. This billion-dollar industry operates like the Wild West. Banks and regulators need a collaborative relationship that moves beyond consent and enforcement to genuine cooperation. Innovations like AI for customer service benefit banks, shareholders and customers but also introduce governance, risk and compliance challenges. Regulation isn't going away, so a proactive relationship between banks and regulators is essential for navigating these complexities and enhancing service offerings.

Bankers want regulators, police to get serious about check fraud - Check fraud has become so widespread that a majority of bank executives want regulators to take action to stop criminals from stealing paper checks. Many want law enforcement to make check fraud a bigger priority and for Congress to get involved. In a survey published by fintech IntraFi Monday morning, bank executives confirm that check fraud is having a big impact on consumers, businesses and banks, undermining faith in the banking system and the U.S. Postal Service. In the latest IntraFi economic survey, 90% of bankers experienced an increase in check fraud over the past two to three years with nearly half saying check fraud is up more than 30%. "Check fraud is high across the board and bankers are confirming it," said Paul Weinstein, senior policy advisor at IntraFi, an Arlington, Virginia-based fintech that helps banks manage their deposits and liquidity. Weinstein, who was himself a victim of attempted check fraud, said he was shocked at just how bad the problem is. Nearly half of bankers surveyed said law enforcement needs to target check fraud as an issue, and 14% said that Congress should get involved. "The confidence in the basic functioning of the financial marketplace is a core responsibility of the government and it impacts the economy at large," Weinstein said. "This strikes me as one of the few issues that some sort of solution could possibly happen because there should be bipartisan support here." IntraFi's Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey provides insights into issues facing the nation's 4,000 banks. With 471 bank CEOs, presidents, chief financial officers and chief operating officers responding, the responses skew notably toward community banks. The survey, conducted online from July 1 to July 12, asked four questions about check fraud and another 10 about core bank topics such as loan demand, deposit competition, funding costs and access to capital. Scams against banks and the increase in fraud and criminal schemes have led some experts to call for a more coordinated response from the government. Nick Bourke, a consultant and policy advisor who served as an executive director at the Pew Charitable Trusts, said the federal government should consider eliminating or greatly constraining the use of paper checks. Last week, Bourke published independent research backed by the Consumer Bankers Association proposing a broad government strategy directed by the White House or through legislation to stop financial scams. "The cost and difficulty of combating check fraud far exceeds the diminishing value that checks may continue to provide," Bourke said.

BankThink: FedNow might be the answer to check fraud | American BankerIndustrywide estimates of the total national value of check fraud losses are difficult to pin down, but the estimates are alarming. The Nasdaq 2024 Global Financial Crime Report estimated the total losses from check fraud in the Americas — that is, the western hemisphere — at $21 billion, representing 80% of check fraud globally. That's roughly equivalent to the loss the FDIC's deposit insurance fund took after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank last year. The software company Nice Actimize issued an article last year that estimated the average loss per check had grown from $2.30 in 2021 to $8 in 2022.That's kind of nuts, especially when one considers that checks are the only payment medium besides cash that has been declining in usage over that same period. That being said, people still use checks and certain kinds of businesses prefer them over more secure forms of payment like credit cards because they are cheaper to use and in some ways more convenient. If only there were some way to allow businesses and consumers to make payments quickly and inexpensively that could replace the current use cases for checks. Oh wait, there is such a thing: The Federal Reserve's faster payments rail FedNow. The rationale for creating a faster payments rail distinct from the one introduced by the Clearing House in 2017 (known as RTP, for Real Time Payments) was that faster payments are inevitable, and because they are inevitable it is important that those rails not evolve into a monopoly controlled by the biggest banks. One can question that rationale, but it is a rationale that makes sense. It makes a lot less sense if the Fed — having taken the considerable time and expense to create FedNow — has no interest in making faster payments an everyday reality for ordinary consumers. I have argued before that the Fed could be more active in requiring banks to use faster payments for day-to-day transactions because it would make things easier for customers. But there is increasingly another rationale for expanding the adoption of faster payments, which is that it might obviate the need for customers and banks to process paper checks — or at least reduce their use to the point where banks can give the checks that are used the scrutiny they deserve.To be sure, there are problems with faster payments as well. The Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations issued a report recently about fraud on the peer-to-peer payments platform Zelle, which is not insignificant. But the problem there is the presence of scams — people being unwittingly duped into paying money to the wrong people, rather than a matter of forgery and counterfeiting. Check fraud is a necessary evil only insofar as checks are necessary, and I am going to go out on a limb and say that the future of payments in the 21st century does not have to include paper checks. I suspect there's a reason why 80% of check fraud in the world happens in the Americas: because the country with the biggest economy is also one of the biggest laggards in adopting faster payments. Making that transition will take some thought and a careful weighing of carrots and sticks, but it needs to be a priority, and the failure to make it a priority is unwittingly enabling fraudsters.

Not All Companies Disclose Emissions From Their Investments, and That’s a Problem for Investors - Indirect emissions from a company’s financial investments can be tricky to measure, but a new study is putting a number on a hidden carbon footprint in the oil and gas sector. Using satellite data from Climate TRACE to analyze oil fields, Clarity AI found that a sample portfolio containing the world’s top 20 oil and gas companies would have a 24 percent higher carbon footprint when accounting for investment-related emissions.When it comes to measurement and disclosure, not all greenhouse gas emissions are created equal. For companies looking to assess their impact on climate change, some things are easier to track, such as the electricity they use to light up offices or the gas fueling their trucks. But emissions that aren’t part of a company’s day-to-day operations still represent a significant part of the equation, said Patricia Pina, head of product research and innovation at Clarity AI, a global sustainability tech platform that provides environmental data to investors. For the report, her team focused on the complex ownership structure of investments in the fossil fuel industry, particularly the way companies run and operate oil and gas fields. According to the Environmental Defense Fund, an advocacy group, a majority of oil and gas projects in the world are joint ventures: multiple companies coming together to invest in a project. While all companies in the partnership provide money to fund the extraction, only one has to claim it as its own. The other companies involved may own a majority of the project but can categorize it as a mere investment. The report found that 90 percent of the world’s largest oil companies do not currently report emissions from these partnerships or joint investments as their own. The climate impact of a company’s investments falls under what are commonly called Scope 3 emissions. These are the greenhouse gases released throughout a company’s entire value chain, from suppliers to customers. Last year, corporations reported that their Scope 3 emissions were on average 26 times greater than their direct ones, a report by the Boston Consulting Group showed.Fossil fuel companies have long sought to distance themselves from Scope 3 emissions and shift the blame for climate impacts to end users. ExxonMobil, which declined to comment on the new study, said in its 2024 climate solutions report that suppliers should not be held accountable for their customers’ emissions or it would undermine incentives to take action. “When everybody is responsible, nobody is responsible,” the report reads. “Blaming the producers of oil and gas for climate change is like blaming farmers for obesity,” Majid Jafar, CEO of the UAE-based Crescent Petroleum, told CNBC in an interview last year. Asked about the study, American Petroleum Institute spokesperson Scott Lauermann said in a written statement that “our industry recognizes the importance of reducing GHG emissions across the economy—including from consumer use of energy. We are focused on meeting rising demand for affordable, reliable energy while advancing low-carbon solutions.” He did not address questions about the industry’s approach to indirect emissions.Pina says the inconsistency in reporting these emissions prevents investors from accurately understanding and predicting their exposure to climate risk. “I’m a strong believer that traditionally, we have relied way too much on the data that companies are reporting,” Pina added. “Companies don’t have the incentive to report everything, … just because they don’t have the means to, or haven’t been able to measure it.”

Legal Challenges to the SEC’s Climate-Related Disclosures Rule - The Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) 886-page climate disclosures document is its most controversial in its 90-year history. It has huge implications for every listed business, especially in the energy sector. The rule empowers climate activists by forcing companies to compile and disclose emissions data that their allies on Wall Street can then use to impose and monitor net zero targets on corporate America. Adopted on March 6, the rule was immediately challenged in the courts. Less than a month later, the SEC chose to stay the rule to pre-empt petitioners’ requests for an emergency stay pending judicial review. When first proposed, the rule attracted an unprecedented volume of comments. It was adopted over the dissent of the SEC’s two Republican commissioners. In his withering dissent, Commissioner Mark Uyeda recalled the advice that he gives investors: “Do not rely on the marketing materials and read the prospectus instead.” The implication is devastating. In justifying the rule, the SEC falls beneath the standards of truthfulness it rightly expects of those whom it regulates. In a speech shortly after adoption of the new rule, SEC chair Gary Gensler observed, “Materiality represents a fundamental building block of the disclosure requirements under the federal laws,” and went on to claim that the new role was “grounded in materiality.” This is bunk. As Commissioner Hester Peirce put it in her dissent, “While the Commission has decorated the final rule with materiality ribbons, the rule embraces materiality in name only.” In no context other than climate, writes Commissioner Uyeda, does the SEC require companies to provide an explanation for any expenses down to one percent of income before taxes, which it does for those incurred as a result of extreme weather.Moreover, the SEC already requires disclosure of material climate information and had issued detailed guidance to that effect in 2010. As abrief on behalf of the U.S. Chambers of Commerce and the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR) to the Eighth Circuit, which is hearing the case, points out, “the rule is necessarily duplicative and of no value.” The rule, the brief contends, contravenes the Administrative Procedure Act because “it purports to solve a ‘securities’ problem that the SEC failed to show exists.” In contravention of its own statutes, the SEC failed to conduct a rigorous cost-benefit analysis of its proposal, which, on its own massaged estimates, would cost more than double[RD1] the compliance costs of all major existing SEC disclosures combined. The rule departs so far from what the SEC had initially proposed that the SEC erred in not re-proposing the rule and opening it up for comments, Commissioner Uyeda contends.The standard of materiality adopted by the courts concerns whether there is a substantial likelihood that a reasonable investor would consider the information important in deciding how to vote or make an investment decision. What unites the universe of reasonable investors is the prospect of financial return. This means that there is an empirical test for materiality: Is the disclosure likely to move the price of the security? A statistical study submitted to the SEC by Professor Daniel Taylor at The Wharton School analyzed the market impact of corporate disclosures of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions data. The study found “no evidence of a statistically significant change in stock price or trading volume in response to GHG disclosures” (emphasis in the original). But, as the U.S. Chambers/NCPPR brief notes, “the Commission inexplicably – and arbitrarily – failed even to consider Dr. Taylor’s findings” (emphasis in the original).A second class of disclosure relates to the integrity of the principal-agent relationship, that is, the reliance of dispersed stockholders on the good faith of corporate executives to act solely in the company’s interests. The purpose of such disclosures, for example on executive compensation, is to facilitate transparency and assure investors that executives aren’t engaged in corporate looting. The integrity of the shareholder-management relationship is factor which can have an outsize impact on corporate valuations and thus is of great interest to the reasonable investor. As David McLean notes in “The Case for Shareholders Capitalism,” the reason why a barrel of oil in 2000 was worth $12 of market capitalization at ExxonMobil and BP but only 20¢ for Russian oil companies is explained by radically differing standards of corporate governance. “U.S. stock exchange and U.S. laws and regulatory agencies make it difficult and costly to expropriate from shareholders,” McLean writes.In effect, the SEC subordinates materiality to investor demand. “Investors ranging from individual investors to large asset managers have indicated that they are making decisions in reliance on that information,” Chair Gensler says. But it is not the role of the SEC to mandate disclosure of corporate data in pursuance of every investment fad or fashion, however well grounded, thereby imposing costs on all investors. One of the SEC’s most cited “reasonable investors” in the rule’s text is As You Sow, a non-profit shareholder advocacy group. As You Sow’s mission is “to promote environmental and social corporate responsibility through shareholder advocacy, coalition building, and innovative legal strategies.” Its website has a prominent donate button, and two of its funders are the Soros-backed Foundation to Promote Open Society and the Open Society Foundations.The SEC’s implicit categorization of climate-activist As You Sow as a “reasonable investor” demonstrates the truth of Commissioner Uyeda’s assertion that the SEC rule is “climate regulation promulgated under the Commission’s seal.” As the U.S. Chambers/NCPPR brief states, the SEC’s alleged justification for the rule is “pretextual,” that is, not the real reason, which, as I pointed out in my June 2022 comment letter, was the grounds on which the Supreme Court struck down the proposed citizenship question in the 2020 census.

Capital One-Discover merger is getting a lot more political — Capital One's proposal to buy Discover has emerged as a flashpoint for progressive lawmakers' stance on big bank M&A, with key Democrats insisting that the deal be viewed with heightened skepticism and most Republicans viewing it favorably. Capital One's bid to acquire Discover, a deal that would create the largest credit card company in the country, has faced political backlash from a number of Democratic lawmakers, most recently Senate Banking Committee chair Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio. "The proposed merger between Capital One and Discover could create a new financial conglomerate while potentially limiting consumer choice for credit products and delivering unclear outcomes for small businesses," said Brown, who stopped short of calling on regulators to reject the deal, in a letter to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve on Friday. "Regulators and the public must understand those implications before any potential approval."House Financial Services Committee ranking member Maxine Waters, D-Calif., has been even more forceful in her opposition to the deal, going to far as to testify at a community benefit meeting last month and asking regulators to deny the proposed merger. "I don't recall in my near 20 years of doing this, another time when a member of Congress testified at one of the regulatory hearings," said Jesse Van Tol, president and CEO of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, who also testified against the deal at the hearing. "And so I think in a lot of ways, the concern that you've heard expressed has been unprecedented." Brown and Waters' comments follow similar ones from other lawmakers — including one Republican — that broadly criticize or oppose the deal. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumersent a letter to the CEO of Capital One, asking for information toward the end of determining if the deal would be anticompetitive. "Another day, another merger that would further consolidate our markets," he said.

BankThink: The Home Loan banks are fulfilling the mission Congress gave them | American Banker --- In furtherance of its review of the Federal Home Loan banks, The Federal Housing Finance Agency recently published a request for information, or RFI, related to their mission and methods for measuring and evaluating mission achievement.. The Federal Home Loan Bank Act is very explicit regarding the activities in which the Federal Home Loan banks are permitted to engage, the activities in which they are required to engage, the activities in which they are prohibited from engaging and the structure within which they must operate. A fair reading of the Bank Act and the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 indicate that Congress has set a very clear mission for the Federal Home Loan Bank System — to provide liquidity to members and support housing and community development. The Home Loan banks have made significant contributions in supporting both objectives. The crucial liquidity Home Loan banks provide their members is collateralized primarily by loans secured by real estate. These are typically one- to four-family residential mortgage loans, along with other types of housing and real estate-related collateral. This strong link to housing supports mortgage lending and community economic development and allows members to confidently meet the borrowing needs of their customers, including providing access to competitively priced fixed-rate mortgages (such as the popular 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage). Additionally, the Home Loan banks offer discount advances for housing and economic development through community investment programs, and most operate mortgage purchase programs that provide an additional avenue for liquidity, particularly for community lenders that do not have access to other secondary market outlets. The Bank Act requires each Home Loan bank to contribute a minimum of 10% of annual earnings to the Affordable Housing Program, supporting the construction of multifamily housing and providing grants for the purchase and/or rehabilitation of single-family homes, including homes impacted by natural disasters. The banks have consistently exceeded the statutory minimum and last year they voluntarily committed to contributing 15% of net income to AHP and other discretionary housing and community development programs on a go forward basis. Their second annual Impact Report showed that in 2023, the Home Loan banks supported over 20,500 housing units, over 10,700 first-time homebuyers and over 14,500 families through AHP funding. This includes nearly 200 projects with 20% of units dedicated to homeless households. They have also launched over three dozen new voluntary programs — programs that are making a real difference in communities across the country — and last year they delivered over $180 million through discretionary programs designed to address specific needs within each bank district. Since the inception of AHP in 1990, the Home Loan banks have contributed more than $8 billion toward the program, supporting over one million households. Today, the banks stand as the largest privately capitalized contributor to affordable housing initiatives in the country and in 2024 they expect to contribute approximately $1 billion toward affordable housing and community development efforts. As the rulemaking process moves forward, what must remain top of mind for all interested parties is that fulfillment of the Home Loan banks' mission flows from their primary purpose as a provider of liquidity. Liquidity is the lifeblood of the system and the driver of all that the banks do in terms of supporting housing finance and affordable housing and community development. Any changes that diminish the value proposition of their liquidity mission will necessarily impact their activities in the affordable housing and community development space. FHFA has the authority and responsibility to ensure the Home Loan banks can continue to meet their members' liquidity needs safely, soundly, efficiently and responsibly in all economic conditions. However, it must also ensure the banks retain the regulatory flexibility necessary to address the current and future challenges to America's housing finance system; consider local and regional housing market differences and allow more flexibility in housing markets that have unique circumstances that support high- or low-cost markets around the country; and avoid any changes that would impair or reduce their discretionary programs. Importantly, the Home Loan banks caution against making changes to the system that could result in a contraction of the nation's availability of credit. The Federal Home Loan banks are a foundational component of the U.S. economy and financial system and, by any measure, they have fulfilled, and are fulfilling, the mission Congress has given them. What's more, they have long been innovators in the affordable housing and community development arena, working through their members and within the confines created for them by Congress to develop programs and initiatives designed to respond to acute local challenges. Additional changes to the system are welcome, provided they increase the flexibility of the banks to be responsive to member needs, broaden participation in the system, reduce administrative burdens and do not disrupt what has served members, communities and borrowers so well over the last century.

"Absolutely Stunning": CRE Analyst Lists Latest Office Tower & Mall Valuation Collapses - The commercial real estate downturn is still underway, posing significant risks for investors across financial markets. CRE-linked equities, corporate credit, structured credit, and private markets all feel the impacts of major unwinds as property prices plunge. While headwinds from high interest rates may diminish in the coming quarters, with rate traders pricing in the possibility of the first 25bps cut as early as the mid-September FOMC meeting, the critical question is whether these projected rate cuts will be adequate to cushion the landing. Office tower valuations remain sloped in a downward trend, plummeting in many cases, as vacancy rates soar as remote work trends keep white-collar workers out of the office and at home. These imploding values remain a massive threat to regional banks, with the CRE crisis likely to persist through 2025. X user Triple Net Investor offers a sobering reality of the CRE space. He closely follows the space and noted dozens of recent valuation declines for malls, towers, and multi-family properties. Here are the examples of why the CRE storm is not over: One of Maryland's largest malls, called White Marsh Mall, located in a northeast suburb of Baltimore County, had a stunning valuation plunge... One of the largest malls in Baltimore has plunged a shocking $320M in value since 2013 A recent appraisal valued the White Marsh Mall at $80M, down from $300M in 2013 A receiver was appointed to take control of the 1.2M sq ft mall earlier this yrThis is one of many… pic.twitter.com/ajriEkumPo"This is a commercial real estate apocalypse," Triple Net Investor said. Wow, this is absolutely crazy... Brookfield owned Gas Company Tower in Downtown LA has plummeted over $400M in valueThe skyscraper was recently valued at $214.5MIt was appraised at $632M just 3 years agoThis is a commercial real estate apocalypse Source: Commercial… pic.twitter.com/UFZuExcqz7 He said, "This is absolutely insane."

Values of Old Office Towers Go to Near-Zero, but the Land Has Value: UBS Gets Off with Black Eye, NY Times Makes Mess of It - By Wolf Richter - It goes something like this: In 2006, an investment fund managed by a division of UBS bought a 925,000-square-foot office tower, dating from the 1960s, at 135 West 50th Street in Manhattan for $332 million. In 2019, it separated the building from the land, sold the land to Safehold – the company specializes in “ground leases” – for $285 million, and inked a long-term ground lease with Safehold. So UBS had $47 million left in the building and $285 million in cash from the sale of the land. We assume that UBS retained the building because this was 2019 and there was an “office shortage” in Manhattan, and office rents were going to the moon, even for a drab 1960s tower or whatever. This way, in theory, UBS could draw income from the building – the office rents, on their way to the moon, would hopefully exceed the costs of the ground lease and other expenses – while it had drawn $285 million in cash out of the property. So even back then in 2019, even during the hottest office market ever, the building itself was worth only a small-ish amount. But the land was worth $285 million. Over the long term, buildings are worth zero, and only the land has value. UBS then renovated the building. Construction was finished in 2021. At the time, the building was about 40% leased, according to the Commercial Observer. According to The Real Deal, citing the recent listing, renovation costs amounted to $76 million. So now, UBS had $123 million in the building. At about that time, the office CRE market began collapsing amid working-from-home and a massive amount of vacant office space coming on the market that no one knew what to do with. But UBS had gotten $285 million out of the property already. By now the building is only 35% leased, office rents aren’t going to the moon, and aren’t covering the costs of the ground lease, and the whole thing has turned into a money-suck. UBS tried to sell the office tower, there was apparently a deal, but it fell through. And so UBS dumped the building by selling it via an online auction at Ten-X for $8.5 million. What UBS got out of the building and land it had bought for $332 million and renovated for $76 million ($408 million in total) was $285 million from the sale of the land and $8.5 million from the sale of the building, for total of $293.5 million. Figured on this basis, its capital loss was roughly 28%. But on its financial statement, the loss will be a lot less, because buildings (but not land) are depreciated to zero over a certain period, such as 39 years per IRS rules for commercial buildings, which would have shaved the book value of the building on UBS’s balance sheet by 44% over the 17 years that UBS owned it. Earlier this year, we discussed a similar ground-lease situation in Chicago where a 12-story, 50% vacant, old (“landmark”) office tower at 300 W. Adams St. sold for $4 million, for the building only. Alliance HP had bought the whole property for $51 million in 2012 and then divided it into a leasehold interest in the building and a 99-year ground lease. Alliance defaulted on the loan on the building, and lenders foreclosed on the building and sold it for $4 million. But Alliance HP retained the land, and it continued to collect rent on it. So that would have been the end of the story with a headline like this: “The value of office buildings goes to zero over time, but the land has value: UBS gets off with a black eye.” Except… The New York Times makes a mess of this. The New York Times came out with a mess topped off with this clickbait title: “This 23-Floor Manhattan Office Building Just Sold at a 97.5% Discount.” And that title is a lie! Buried way deep down after a lot of blah-blah-blah, the story mentions in passing that the $8.5 million in sales proceeds was only for the building and not for the land. But it didn’t subtract the sales proceeds of the land ($285 million) from the original cost of the land and building ($332 million). It just figured the “97.5% Discount” as the percentage loss between $8.5 million in proceeds from the building and the acquisition cost of the land and building of $332 million (= -97.5%).

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Mostly Unchanged in June, Multi-family Increased - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Mostly Unchanged in June, Multi-family Increased Brief excerpt: Single-family serious delinquencies were mostly unchanged in June, and multi-family serious delinquencies increased again. ... Freddie Mac reports that the multi-family delinquencies rate increased to 0.38% in June, up from 0.36% in April, but down from the recent peak of 0.44% in January. This graph shows the Freddie multi-family serious delinquency rate since 2012. Rates were still high in 2012 following the housing bust and financial crisis. The multi-family rate increased following the pandemic and has increased recently as rent growth has slowed, vacancy rates have increased, and borrowing rates have increased sharply. The rate surged higher in January and then declined in February and March but has been increasing again. This will be something to watch as more apartments come on the market.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 3.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 26, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 32 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent lower than the same week one year ago. "Mortgage rates were little changed last week, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate unchanged at 6.82 percent," . "In recent weeks, there have been some small bursts of refinance activity, particularly for FHA and VA loans. Last week, VA refi application volume dropped sharply, which drove the aggregate result. Borrowers may be waiting for signs that mortgage rates will drift lower as the Federal Reserve begins to cut short-term rates. Purchase volume also dropped slightly because of ongoing affordability challenges.”... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) remained unchanged at 6.82 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 14% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up about 6% from the lows in late October 2023, but still below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and mostly flat lined since then with some increase recently.

Housing July 29th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.3% Week-over-week, Up 39.4% Year-over-year -- Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 37.1% from the February seasonal bottom. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of July 26th, inventory was at 677 thousand (7-day average), compared to 668 thousand the prior week. This is the highest level of inventory since June 2020; however, inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 39.4% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 39.1%), and down 29.4% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 30.3%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 37.1% YoY -- On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For June, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 36.6% YoY, but still down 30.6% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 37.1% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending July 27, 2024:
• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 37.1% above year-ago levels. For the 38th week in a row, the number of for-sale homes grew compared with one year ago. This past week, the inventory of homes for sale grew by 37.1% compared with last year, slightly higher than the rate observed in the previous week.
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week by 6.4% from one year ago. This week’s decrease in new listings bucked the recent trend of new listing growth, which had posted a positive year-over-year figure in 15 of the last 17 weeks. On a monthly basis, June saw new listings grow at a 6.3% annual rate, so this week’s data appears to signal a slowdown in housing inventory being added to the market.
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was up year-over-year for the 38th consecutive week. However, inventory is still historically low.New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.9% year-over-year in May - S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3-month average of March, April and May closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Again Breaks Previous Month's All-Time High for May 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.9% annual gain for May, down from a 6.4% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 7.7%, down from an 8.1% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 6.8%, dropping from a 7.3% increase in the previous month. New York reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 9.4% increase in May, followed by San Diego and Las Vegas with increases of 9.1% and 8.6%, respectively. Portland once again held the lowest rank for the smallest year-over-year growth, notching a 1.0% annual increase in May. ... The U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite upward trends continued to decelerate from last month, with pre-seasonality adjustment increases of 0.9%, 1.0%, and 1.0%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted the same month-over-month change of 0.3% as last month, while the 20-City and 10-City Composite reported a monthly change of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. “While annual gains have decelerated recently, this may have more to do with 2023 than 2024, as recent performance remains encouraging,” “Our home price index has appreciated 4.1% year-to-date, the fastest start in two years. Covering the six-month period dating to when mortgage rates peaked, our national index has risen the past four months, erasing the stall experienced late last year. Collectively, all 20 markets covered continue to trade in a homogeneous pattern. New York’s 9.4% annual return outpaced San Diego and Las Vegas, by 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively. All 20 markets observed annual gains for the last six months. The last time we saw that long a streak was when all markets rose for three years consecutively during the COVID housing boom. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The Composite 10 index was up 0.4% in May (SA). The Composite 20 index was up 0.3% (SA) in May.The National index was up 0.3% (SA) in May. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices. The Composite 10 SA was up 7.7% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA was up 6.8% year-over-year. The National index SA was up 5.9% year-over-year. Annual price changes were close to expectations

Comments on May Case-Shiller House Prices, FHFA: House Prices Unchanged in May --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.9% year-over-year in May; FHFA House Price Index Unchanged in May, up 5.7% YoY Excerpt: S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3-month average of March, April and May closing prices). May closing prices include some contracts signed in January, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA). The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.25%. This was the sixteenth consecutive MoM increase, but this tied December as the smallest MoM increase in the last 15 months. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 17 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 7.5% from the recent peak, Seattle is down 5.4% from the peak, Portland down 4.3%, and Phoenix is down 4.3%.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in June; Up 5.1% Year-over-year -Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in June; Up 5.1% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.06% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in June. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 5.1% in June, down from up 5.7% YoY in May. The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023. ... As of June, 19 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Idaho (-4.2%), Montana (-2.5%), Arkansas (-2.0), Texas (-1.7%), Hawaii (-1.7%) and Utah (-1.6%). For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city.

Starter Homes Cost At Least $1 Million In 117 California Cities - California is one of the most expensive places to buy a starter home in the country, as 117 cities in the state have so-called starter homes priced at $1 million or more, according to a real estate analysis from Zillow.New York was second to California, with $1 million starter homes in 31 different cities.According to the analysis, such homes are priced among the lowest third of home values in a given region. Nationwide, $1 million starter homes are for sale in 237 cities, up from 84 in 2019.Across the United States, the average starter home is $196,611. Over the past five years, those home values have increased by about 54 percent, according to Zillow.The company’s data showed that this rapid rise in prices had slightly increased the median age of a first-time home buyer from 34 in 2019 to 35 in 2023.The San Francisco metro area had the highest count of $1 million starter homes within its 44 cities, second to the New York City metro—which includes New Jersey and Pennsylvania—with 48 cities. In California, the Los Angeles metro follows closely behind San Francisco with 35 cities having such priced starter homes, and 15 in the San Jose area.The Southern California city of Irvine—with a population of over 300,000—is the largest city in the nation with $1 million starter homes, according to the analysis.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.9% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6% below 2022 peak --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.9% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt:It has been 18 years since the bubble peak. In the May Case-Shiller house price index released on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 73% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 11% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 2% above the bubble peak. People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $432,000 today adjusted for inflation (44% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices. The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index. ... The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI). In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 1.9% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 2.5% below the recent peak in 2022. Both indexes increased slightly in May in real terms.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year -Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September 2021: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand). Now that household formation has slowed, and multi-family completions have increased, rents are under pressure. Welcome to the August 2024 Apartment List National Rent Report. Rent prices ticked up for the sixth straight month, but rent growth over the course of 2024 as a whole remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market. And while month-over-month rent growth remains positive, it is decelerating. Prices increased just 0.2% in July and today the nationwide median rent stands at $1,414. It is very possible that rent growth will turn flat or negative in August, and stay there for the remainder of the year.... Realtor.com: Eleventh Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents In June 2024, the U.S. median rent continued to decline year over year for the 11th month in a row, down $7 (-0.4%) for 0-2 bedroom properties across the top 50 metros, slower than the rate seen in May 2024. The median asking rent was $1,743, up by $13 from last month following a typical seasonal trend.

US Pending Home Sales Rebound (Modestly) From Record Lows In June After two months of ugly declines, US pending home sales bounced in June (up 4.8% MoM). However, that jump was not enough to juice YoY changes which saw sales decline 7.8% YoY... Graphs Source: Bloomberg June's rebound pulls sales off record low levels going back to 2001... “The rise in housing inventory is beginning to lead to more contract signings,” and more supply should hit the market in the coming months, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement. “Multiple offers are less intense, and buyers are in a more favorable position.” The pending-sales figures tend to be a leading indicator of sales of previously owned homes, because houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 4.8% in June; Down 2.6% Year-over-year --From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Rose 4.8% in June -- Pending home sales in June ascended 4.8%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four U.S. regions posted monthly gains in transactions. Year-over-year, the Northeast, Midwest and South registered declines, while the West increased. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – grew to 74.3 in June. Year over year, pending transactions were down 2.6%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. "The rise in housing inventory is beginning to lead to more contract signings," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Multiple offers are less intense, and buyers are in a more favorable position." ... The Northeast PHSI ascended 3.0% from last month to 65.5, a decline of 0.3% from June 2023. The Midwest index rose 4.7% to 73.7 in June, down 4.2% from one year ago. The South PHSI increased 6.3% to 89.3 in June, dropping 3.9% from the prior year. The West index climbed 3.4% in June to 58.4, up 1.0% from June 2023. This was above expectations. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in July and August.

HVS: Q2 2024 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates -The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q2 2024 today. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey.The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020. This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. National vacancy rates in the second quarter 2024 were 6.6 percent for rental housing and 0.9 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was higher than the rate in the second quarter 2023 (6.3 percent) and virtually the same as the rate in the first quarter 2024 (6.6 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 0.9 percent was higher than the rate in the second quarter 2023 (0.7 percent) and higher than the rate in the first quarter 2024 (0.8 percent). The homeownership rate of 65.6 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2023 (65.9 percent) and virtually the same as the rate in the first quarter 2024 (65.6 percent). The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The HVS homeownership rate was unchanged at 65.6% in Q2, from 65.6% in Q1. The results in Q2 and Q3 2020 were distorted by the pandemic and should be ignored. The HVS homeowner vacancy increased to 0.9% in Q2 from 0.8% in Q1. The homeowner vacancy rate declined sharply during the pandemic and includes homes that are vacant and for sale (so this mirrors the low levels of existing home inventory).The rental vacancy rate was unchanged at 6.6% in Q2 from 6.6% in Q1. This is up from the low of 5.6% in 2021 and 2022. The quarterly HVS is the timeliest survey on households, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey.

Construction Spending Decreased 0.3% in June --From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during June 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,148.4 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised May estimate of $2,154.8 billion. The June figure is 6.2 percent above the June 2023 estimate of $2,023.0 billion. Both private and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,664.6 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised May estimate of $1,668.8 billion. ... In June, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $483.9 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised May estimate of $486.0 billion. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential (red) spending is 5.4% below the recent peak in 2022. Non-residential (blue) spending is 0.4% below the peak in January 2024. Public construction spending is 0.6% below the peak in April 2024. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 7.3%. Non-residential spending is up 4.2% year-over-year. Public spending is up 7.3% year-over-year. This was below consensus expectations for 0.2% increase in spending, however, total construction spending for the previous two months was revised up. This is probably just the start of weakness for private non-residential construction/

Eyepopping Factory Construction Boom in the US Reaches New Highs amid Big Corporate & Strategic Rethink - By Wolf Richter -- Companies invested a record $19.7 billion in June in the construction of manufacturing facilities, up by 18.6% from the already surging levels in June 2023, up by nearly 100% from June 2022, and up by 209% from June 2019, according to the Census Bureau today. The investment totals here only cover the actual construction costs of the facilities, not the costs of the manufacturing equipment and installation that can dwarf the construction costs of the building. The total cost of a big chip plant might reach $20 billion, but the construction costs are the smallest part of it. So the total amounts invested in manufacturing plants, including the equipment and installation, are much higher. But here, the amounts only refer to the construction of the plants, and can be seen as a directional indicator of total investment in manufacturing. In addition to the construction boom of semiconductor plants, a large number of other manufacturing plants have been announced, and continue to be announced. The explosion in factory construction that started in the second half of 2021 was one of the changes that came out of the pandemic when America’s scary dependence on China became apparent in massive shortages of all kinds of goods, including semiconductor shortages, and unbelievable supply-chain and transportation chaos, that caused corporate America and policy makers to rethink the strategy of endless globalization. The CHIPS Act, signed into law in August 2022, was part of the movement. While the first awards have been announced, there is lots of stuff left to do, including due diligence, and the cash hasn’t been disbursed yet. That’s still to come. The 12-month total of investment in manufacturing plants jumped to $235.5 billion, up by 19% from the same period a year ago, up by 100% from two years ago, and up by 217% from the same period in 2019. Construction spending on manufacturing facilities now accounts for over 10% of total construction spending in the US, residential and non-residential, from single-family houses to roads and power plants. It’s all based on the principle that industrial robots cost the same in the US and China, that manual labor is a much smaller cost component in modern automated manufacturing, and that transportation costs (which spiked during the pandemic) and loss of Intellectual Property (IP), which is a given in China, and other risks have to be added to cost equation. In addition, the increasingly complicated and stressed relationship between the US and China has exposed for all to see that the reckless dependence by US companies on production in China is a fundamental risk, not only for the companies, but also for national security. No one is going to build a factory in the US to make low-value products, such as T-shirts. It’s all focused on complicated high-value products, such as motor vehicles, chips, electrical and electronic products, heavy components and equipment, etc.

Tracking the EV battery factory construction boom across North America - The onshoring of battery manufacturing for EVsstarted as a trickle during the COVID-19 pandemic. Then it turned into a tsunami.In 2019, just two battery factories were operating in the United States with another two under construction. Today there are about 34 battery factories either planned, under construction or operational in the country.U.S. President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act(IRA), signed into law August 16, 2022, might not have been the initial catalyst behind the onshoring battery factory trend. But it did help open the spigot and accelerate the pace of factory projects — not to mention sparking a climate tech arms race with the EU. Two years later, we’re still tracking the fallout. China has long controlled the supply and manufacture of lithium-ion batteries. The country’s grip on that supply chain began to loosen after automakers, hesitant to repeat the chip shortage crisis that hampered manufacturing during the pandemic, began promising to build EVs and batteries closer to home in 2021.What has followed is a wave of automakers and battery makers — foreign and domestic — pledging to produce North American–made batteries before 2030. (See each automaker’s plans here and battery maker’s plans here.)Why so much investment into onshoring EV battery production? One reason is because the IRA is rife with incentives for automakers and consumers to produce domestically — a concerted effort to end the U.S.’s reliance on China for batteries, while simultaneously meeting Biden’s goal to make 50% of all new vehicle sales in the U.S. electric or hybrid by 2030. Vehicles can qualify for the full $7,500 EV tax credit if they meet certain battery sourcing and production guidelines.The IRA requires that 60% of the value of battery components be produced or assembled in North America in 2024 to qualify for half of the tax credit, $3,750. That percentage will increase to 100% starting in 2029. To get the remaining half, 50% of the value of critical materials must be sourced from the U.S. or a free trade agreement country in 2024. That percentage increases to 60%, 70% and 80% for vehicles produced in 2025, 2026 and 2027 and beyond, respectively. The IRA also includes advanced manufacturing credits that give the producer a payout from the Treasury. Under Section 45X, the production of battery cells qualifies for a credit of $35 per kilowatt-hour of capacity, and the production of battery modules qualifies for $10 per kilowatt-hour. (Battery cells are containers that chemically store energy, and they are arranged into modules. Battery packs can be made up of cells or modules.) Companies can also be reimbursed 10% of the costs incurred due to the production of electrode active materials, like the cathode and anode. The cathode stores lithium when a battery is discharged, and the anode stores lithium when a battery is charging. They are both components of a cell and can contain materials like graphite, silicon, zinc, aluminum, magnesium, nickel and cobalt.Automakers and battery manufacturers have collectively invested and promised to invest around $112 billion in building domestic cell and module manufacturing. Together, these companies promise to deliver an annual capacity of close to 1,200 gigawatt-hours before 2030, if each factory reaches maximum capacity. That’s roughly enough batteries for 18 million EVs, based on previous Tesla predictions that say about 100 GWh capacity can power around 1.5 million EVs.Outside of the battery sector, the IRA has helped fuel a total $245 billion in private investment into clean energy and technology manufacturing, according to Atlas Public Policy’s Clean Economy Tracker. The investment into producing batteries in the U.S. and Canada changes regularly, so we’ve started tracking these promises.TechCrunch created a handy map showing the location of each battery factory plus some basic information, including planned capacity. For those looking for more details and context, scroll down to read about each manufacturer’s planned or operational battery factories. Or click on a location on the map for a pop-up to appear. Note: The factories included below are producing or will produce battery cells and modules. We did not include things like battery materials production. Therefore, it is not an exhaustive list of all the production going into creating EV batteries in North America.

Vehicles Sales Increase to 15.8 million SAAR in July - The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for July this morning. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and BEA's estimate for July (red).Sales in July (15.82 million SAAR) were up 4.2% from June, and down 0.8% from July 2023. Sales in July were below the consensus forecast of 16.2 million. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 46.8% in July The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 46.8% in July, down from 48.5% in June. The employment index was at 43.4%, down from 49.3% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.1%, down from 49.3%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.8% July 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® The Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.8 percent in July, down 1.7 percentage points from the 48.5 percent recorded in June. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 51st month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 47.4 percent, 1.9 percentage points lower than the 49.3 percent recorded in June. The July reading of the Production Index (45.9 percent) is 2.6 percentage points lower than June’s figure of 48.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 52.9 percent, up 0.8 percentage point compared to the reading of 52.1 percent in June. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.7 percent, equaling its June reading. The Employment Index registered 43.4 percent, down 5.9 percentage points from June’s figure of 49.3 percent. This suggests manufacturing contracted in July. This was below the consensus forecast.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 249,000 -- The DOL reported:In the week ending July 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 249,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 235,000. The 4-week moving average was 238,000, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 235,500. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. . The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 238,000. The previous week was unrevised. Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

BLS: Job Openings "Unchanged" at 8.2 million in June -- From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary- The number of job openings was unchanged at 8.2 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, both the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for June; the employment report this Friday will be for July. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings decreased in June to 8.18 million from 8.23 million in May. The number of job openings (black) were down 10% year-over-year. Quits were down 12% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

ADP: Private Employment Increased 122,000 in July -- From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 122,000 Jobs in July; Annual Pay was Up 4.8%Private sector employment increased by 122,000 jobs in July and annual pay was up 4.8 percent year-over-year, according to the July ADP® National Employment Report “With wage growth abating, the labor market is playing along with the Federal Reserve's effort to slow inflation,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “If inflation goes back up, it won't be because of labor.” This was below the consensus forecast of 168,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 175,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July.

July Employment Report: 114 thousand Jobs, 4.3% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in July, and nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing, while information lost jobs. ...The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 2,000, from +218,000 to +216,000, and the change for June was revised down by 27,000, from +206,000 to +179,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 29,000 lower than previously reported. The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.Total payrolls increased by 114 thousand in July. Private payrolls increased by 97 thousand, and public payrolls increased 17 thousand. Payrolls for May and June were revised down 29 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In July, the year-over-year change was 2.51 million jobs. Employment was up solidly year-over-year. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.7% in July, from 62.6% in June. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 60.0% from 60.1% in June (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in July from 4.1% in June. This was well below consensus expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined.

U.S. unemployment rate ticks up to 4.3% amid signs of broader economic slowdown -- The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July and hiring slowed, adding to signs of a broader downturn in what has been a solid U.S. economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that the U.S. added 114,000 jobs, the fewest since December 2020 during the throes of the Covid-19 pandemic. Economists were expecting the unemployment rate to have been unchanged from June's 4.1% reading. The report will likely add to worries from some economists that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut interest rates in its bid to stamp out inflation. Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jay Powell indicated the first rate cut of the post-pandemic period would come in September, even as many economists flagged signs of a rapidly cooling labor market. Friday's report adds further evidence to those concerns. "Oh dear, has the Fed made a policy mistake?" wrote Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management based in the UK, in a note to clients following the jobs report's release. "The labour market’s slowdown is now materialising with more clarity." She noted job gains have now dropped below the 150,000 threshold "that would be considered consistent with a solid economy," and that a September rate cut "is in the bag." "The Fed will be hoping that they haven’t, once again, been too slow to act," Shah said. Beyond the report's headline figures were mitigating factors and other signs that the economy remains on relatively firm footing. Much of the increase in the unemployment measure was driven by temporary layoffs, while the BLS indicated that weather-related factors had temporarily increased the ranks of those who still hold jobs but were technically not at work during the month. Meanwhile, wage gains continued to outpace inflation — continuing a trend that has now taken hold for months — and more people rejoined the workforce last month, something reflected in an increased labor force participation rate. Yet outside of health care, construction and some transportation and warehousing roles, there was little meaningful job growth, with manufacturing adding just 1,000 to its payrolls and professional and business services positions declining by 1,000. "Even a few months ago, the labor market seemed fine, the trajectory looked stable," said Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, a think tank. "Today, things look a bit shakier." While Berger doesn't see an imminent recession, it wouldn't take much for the gradual downturn to become a more significant one, he said. The Federal Reserve doesn't envision that outcome — and in fact is largely in control of it, economists say.On Wednesday, the Fed a nnounced that it was leaving its key interest rate unchanged at about 5.5% even as Powell said a cut at its next meeting was "on the table."By cutting interest rates, the central bank would reduce the cost of borrowing for goods and services, which would result in lower monthly payments for consumers and businesses alike who are subject to variable annual percentage rates.In turn, demand and hiring are likely to increase throughout the economy. On average, companies are hanging on to their current workers — something reflected in the rate of layoffs’ falling to a record low.Yet the hiring rate has also fallen to a level not seen since the onset of the pandemic — and before that, 2014.The Fed therefore believes it can put a floor underneath the labor market that prevents it from deteriorating further, Berger said.While there is reason to believe it can accomplish that, there is an alternative view that it is already behind the curve and should have cut interest rates by now."Historically, deteriorating labor markets generate a self-reinforcing feedback loop," former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley wrote in a Bloomberg News op-ed last week. "When jobs are harder to find, households trim spending, the economy weakens and businesses reduce investment, which leads to layoffs and further spending cuts."

U.S. hiring slows with just 114,000 jobs added in July, unemployment rate hits 4.3 percent (AP) — U.S. hiring decelerated sharply last month in the face of high interest rates as employers added an unexpectedly weak 114,000 jobs. Friday’s Labor Department report showed a drop from the 179,000 jobs created in June. Forecasters had expected to see 175,000 jobs in July. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, highest since October 2021, as the number of jobless Americans rose by 352,000. The economy had proven unexpectedly sturdy in the face of the Federal Reserve’s campaign to tame inflation with high interest rates. The Fed raised its benchmark rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023, taking it to a 23-year high. But the higher borrowing costs appear to be taking a toll. READ MORE: Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge cools, increasing likelihood of September rate cut The unemployment rate has risen for four consecutive months. Its jump to 4.3 percent in July crossed a tripwire that historically has signaled that the United States is in recession — though economists say the gauge probably is not reliable in the topsy-turvy post-pandemic economy. In another sign that the labor market is cooling, average hourly wages rose just 3.6 percent from July 2023, smallest year-over-year gain since May 2021 and a development likely to ease inflationary pressure in the economy. Jobs gains were also concentrated in a few industries. Healthcare and social assistance firms added 64,000 jobs last month, accounting for 56 percent of hiring. Restaurants, hotels and bars added nearly 26,000 jobs. The economy is weighing heavily on voters’ minds as they prepare for the presidential election in November. Many are unimpressed with the strong job gains of the past three years, exasperated instead by high prices. Two years ago, inflation hit a four-decade high. The price increases eased, but consumers are still paying 19 percent more for goods and services overall than they were before inflation first heated up in spring 2021. The so-called Sahm Rule, named for the former Fed economist who came up with it, Claudia Sahm, holds that a recession is almost always already underway if the unemployment rate (based on a three-month moving average) rises by half a percentage point from its low of the past year. The jump to 4.3 percent crossed the threshold. Still, Sahm, now chief economist at the investment firm New Century Advisors, said before Friday’s report that this time “a recession is not imminent” even if unemployment crosses the Sahm Rule threshold. America’s jobs numbers have been unsettled by an unexpected surge in immigration — much of it illegal — over the past couple of years. The new arrivals have poured into the American labor force and helped ease labor shortages across the economy — but not all of them have found jobs right away, pushing up the jobless rate. Moreover, people who have entered the country illegally are less inclined to respond to the Labor Department’s jobs survey, meaning they can go uncounted as employed, notes Oxford’s Martin. Nonetheless, Sahm remains concerned about the hiring slowdown, noting that a deteriorating job market can feed on itself. “Once you have a certain momentum going to the downside, it often can get going,” Sahm said. The Sahm rule, she says, is “not working like it usually does, but it shouldn’t be ignored.” Sahm had urged Fed policymakers to preemptively cut their benchmark interest rate at their meeting this week, but they chose to leave it unchanged at the highest level in 23 years. They are widely expected to start reducing the rate at their next meeting in September. Economists on Friday were questioning whether the Fed had waited too long to start easing borrowing costs. “Oh dear, has the Fed made a policy mistake?” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. “The labor market’s slowdown is now materializing with more clarity,…a September rate cut is in the bag and the Fed will be hoping that they haven’t, once again, been too slow to act.”

Establishment Jobs survey weak and Household Jobs survey almost recessionary - In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing. In the last several months I have also pointed out that the Household Survey is probably understating growth because of its large undercount of recent immigrants joining the labor force.This month the summary is easy: the Establishment jobs report was weak (but still positive); the Household jobs report was recessionary.Below is my in depth synopsis.

114,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 97,000. Government jobs increased by 17,000.
May was revised downward by -2,000, and June was revised downward by -27,000, for a net decline of -29,000. This continues the pattern from nearly every month in the past 18 months of a steady drumbeat of downward net revisions.
The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, showed an increase of 67,000 jobs. On a YoY basis, in this series only 57,000 jobs, which round to 0.0%, or no gain at all. With the sole exception of 1952 and one month in 1957, this has always and only occurred shortly before or during recessions.
The U3 unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 4.3%, triggering the “Sahm rule” recession indicator.
The U6 underemployment rate rose 0.5% to 8.2%, 1.4% above its low of December 2022.
Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now rose 362,000 to 5.600 million, vs. its post-pandemic low of 4.925 million in early 2023.
the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, declined -0.2 hours to 39.9 hours, and is down -0.6 hours from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours.
Manufacturing jobs rose 1,000.
Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs declined -1,300.
Truck driving declilned -2,400.
Construction jobs increased 25,000.
Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 1,700 to another new post-pandemic high.
Goods producing jobs as a whole rose 25,000 to another new expansion high. These should decline before any recession occurs.
Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining late 2022, fell by another -8,700, and are down about -500,000 since their peak in March 2022. This appears to be not just cyclical, but a secular change in trend.
the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or fewer rose 223,000 to 2,351,000.
Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.09, or +0.3%, to $30.14, for a YoY gain of +3.8%. This continues the decelerating trend in YoY growth in wages since their post pandemic peak of 7.0% in March 2022. Keep in mind that this is still significantly higher than the 3.0% YoY inflation rate as of last month.
the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers declined -0.2%, and is up 1.2% YoY, basically in trend for the past 12+ months.
the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers was unchanged, and is up 5.1% YoY. These have been slowly decelerating since the end of the pandemic lockdowns. But with the latest YoY consumer inflation reading of 3.0%, this remains powerful evidence that average working families have continued to see gains in “real” spending money.
Professional and business employment declined -11,000. These tend to be well-paying jobs. This series had generally been declining since May 2023, but earlier this year had resumed increasing again. As of this month, they are only higher YoY by 0.6% – a very low increase that has *only* happened in the past 80+ years immediately before, during, or after recessions.
The employment population ratio declined -0.1% to 60.0%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
The Labor Force Participation Rate increased +0.1% to 62.7%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020. The prime 25-54 age participation rate rose sharply to 84.0%, the highest rate during the entire history of this series except for the late 1990s tech boom.

SUMMARY: This month was the smallest gain in employment since the pandemic except for this past April. The unemployment rate was the highest since October 2021. Once again, however, there was some divergence between the two surveys, with the Household survey being decisively weaker. I nevertheless still recommend taking the recession cries that you will read elsewhere in the next few days with lots of grains of salt. I note in particular the very large increase in the prime age labor force participation rate – which itself is probably an underestimate, due to the impact of the post-pandemic immigration surge, which has not been incorporated into the underlying labor force participation level, which has been flat. As indicated above, the YoY stall in the Household number is also recessionary. Within the Establishment survey, the stall in professional and business jobs was also recessionary.But the main Establishment report, while undeniably weak, was still positive, with significant gains in construction, a small gain in manufacturing, and an aggregate decent gain in goods production. Additionally, aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls are likely still growing in real terms, which means most households have more money to spend in real terms. While some of the leading aspects of this survey data (like manufacturing hours) were negative, I don’t think we have any serious pre-recession signal unless and until goods-producing jobs roll over.

Growth in Jobs Slows to 2017-2019 Pace, Unemployment Rate Rises as Massive Wave of Immigrants Is Absorbed More Slowly By Wolf Richter - (graphs) Payrolls at employers rose by 114,000 in July, below the growth in June and May. Back in April, job growth was even lower (108,000), and we went through the same handwringing. This rate of job growth remains well above the lower end of the scale during the Good Times in 2017-2019 (blue in the chart). The private-sector ADP National Employment Report showed job growth of 122,000 in July. The three-month average — our preferred indicator because it includes all revisions and irons out the month-to-month squiggles — ticked up a hair from the prior month to 170,000 (red) and remains right in the middle of job growth during the Good Times in 2017 through 2019. Total employment reached a record 158.7 million. Clearly, the growth in new jobs has slowed from the frenetic pace after the lockdowns and labor shortages, and has returned to the normal range with its big squiggles of the Good Times in 2017-2019. Average hourly earnings increased by 2.8% annualized (0.23% not annualized) in July from June, below the rate in June and May, but above April, and right in the middle of the range of 2017-2019. The three-month average, which includes revisions and irons out some of the month-to-month squiggles, accelerated a hair to a growth rate of 3.7% annualized (+0.31% not annualized), at the very top of the range during the 2017-2019 period. This is still relatively high wage growth, but way down from the frenetic pace in 2022 – and as Powell said at the press conference, no longer fuel for inflation. The 12-month rate dipped to 3.6%, above the peaks of the 2017-2019 period, but barely, as wage growth has roughly normalized. The headline unemployment rate (U-3) rose to 4.3%, which is still relatively low historically, but is up sharply from the period of the labor shortages in 2022. This is also where the massive influx of immigrants over the past two years – estimated at 6 million by the Congressional Budget Office, using ICE data – shows up if they have not yet found a job, but are looking for a job: The number of unemployed people looking for a job has risen to 6.87 million. At the low point during the labor shortages, the number of unemployed had dropped to 5.8 million. The unemployment rate (above) accounts for the large-scale growth in the labor force over the decades; this metric here of the number of unemployed does not take into account the growth in the labor force. So clearly, labor market growth has slowed. Growth in job creation by establishments has slowed from the frenetic pace of 2022 and 2023 but remains in the pre-pandemic range. Wages are growing at a normal-ish clip. And the massive influx of new workers into the labor force – from the 6 million immigrants over the past two years, as per the Congressional Budget Office – is being absorbed by the job market at a slower rate that doesn’t keep pace with the influx of these workers, and so the unemployment rate has risen, despite the increase in payrolls. A recession in the US (which are called out by the NBER) generally includes actual declines in payrolls, but they’re still growing, even in July, though at a normal-ish clip; and quarter-to-quarter declines in GDP, but in Q2, GDP grew 2.8%, faster than the 10-year average after the more sluggish growth in Q1.

Comments on July Employment Report – McBride The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%.Construction employment increased 25 thousand and is now 645 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing employment increased 1 thousand and is now 173 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: July Employment Report: 114 thousand Jobs, 4.3% Unemployment Rate Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in July to 84.0% from 83.7% in June to the highest level since 2001. The 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.9% from 80.8% the previous month. Both are above pre-pandemic levels and near the highest level this millennium. Average Hourly Wages The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.6% YoY in July. From the BLS report: "The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 million in July. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs." The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57 million from 4.22 million in June. This is above the pre-pandemic levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 7.8 from 7.4% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.535 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.516 million the previous month. This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million. This is above pre-pandemic levels. Through July 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 43 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 5th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). Summary: The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%. A weaker than expected report, and the three-month average employment growth has slowed to 170 per month. The unemployment rate has increased from a low of 3.4% in early 2023 to 4.3% in July.

Intel to cut 15,000 jobs15,000 jobs after ‘disappointing’ second quarter results - Intel plans to cut 15,000 jobs, or about 15 percent of its workforce, CEO Pat Gelsinger said in a note to employees Thursday. The mass layoffs come amid an effort to deliver $10 billion in cost savings in 2025, after the chipmaker posted “disappointing” second quarter results. “This is painful news for me to share,” Gelsinger said. “I know it will be even more difficult for you to read. This is an incredibly hard day for Intel as we are making some of the most consequential changes in our company’s history.” “Simply put, we must align our cost structure with our new operating model and fundamentally change the way we operate,” he continued. “Our revenues have not grown as expected — and we’ve yet to fully benefit from powerful trends, like AI.” Intel brought in $12.8 billion in revenue in the second quarter of 2024, down 1 percent from the previous year and below expectations for the company. It also posted a net loss of $1.6 billion, or 38 cents per share. “Our costs are too high, our margins are too low,” Gelsinger added in his note to employees. “We need bolder actions to address both — particularly given our financial results and outlook for the second half of 2024, which is tougher than previously expected.” In addition to layoffs, the company also plans to simplify its portfolio to focus on “fewer, more impactful products,” reduce capital expenditures and suspend its stock dividend to “prioritize investments in the business and drive more sustained profitability,” the CEO said.

School That Gave Child COVID-19 Vaccine Against Parents' Wishes Immune From Lawsuits: Court -A school that injected a minor with a COVID-19 vaccine despite the boy’s parents telling school officials they did not want him to receive a COVID-19 vaccine is immune under federal law, the Vermont Supreme Court has ruled. The Federal Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act (PREP Act) protects state and school officials who were named as defendants in a lawsuit brought by the minor’s parents, justices said in a July 26 decision.“We conclude that when the federal PREP Act immunizes a defendant, the PREP Act bars all state-law claims against that defendant as a matter of law,” Justice Karen Carroll said.The PREP Act, signed in 2005, grants immunity to administrators of covered vaccines except in cases involving willful misconduct. COVID-19 vaccines are covered because of a 2020 declaration, extended multiple times thereafter, by the U.S. health secretary.Dario and Shujen Politella sued officials after their son was injected with a Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 shot in 2021 at the Academy School in the Windham Southeast School District. Before the school hosted a vaccine clinic, district and state officials confirmed that students needed parental consent to receive a vaccine, and the boy’s parents said they did not consent. Just days before holding the clinic, Mr. Politella emphasized to the school’s assistant principal that the parents did not want the boy to receive a shot. The boy was removed from class on the day of the clinic and labeled as another child, who had already been vaccinated. The boy told workers his father said not to give him a vaccine, but they distracted him with a stuffed animal and gave him a shot, according to court documents. The Vermont Superior Court dismissed the suit from the parents, finding that they needed to bring litigation in federal court under the PREP Act’s immunity exemption.Lawyers for the parents, though, argued that officials did not show that the PREP Act covered their actions and that the case should play out in state court according to state laws. In a brief to Vermont justices, they pointed to other cases in which that has happened.Justices said that each defendant, including the school’s nurse, is covered by the PREP Act and that the allegations against them are related to the administration of the vaccine, which makes all defendants immune.While there have been rulings in other cases that the PREP Act only preempts claims against covered people for willful misconduct, “none of these cases supports the proposition that plaintiffs can proceed in state court against defendants who are completely immunized from liability under the Act,” Justice Carroll said.She wrote later that “other state courts faced with similar facts have concluded that state-law claims against immunized defendants cannot proceed in state court in light of the PREP Act’s immunity and preemption provisions, including claims based on the failure to secure parental consent.”

Most antibiotic prescriptions for kids' ear infections are too long, study finds -A study conducted at two large pediatric academic healthcare systems found that three-quarters of antibiotic prescriptions for children with ear infections were longer than recommended, researchers reported last week in theJournal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society.Using electronic medical record (EMR) data, researchers analyzed outpatient encounters for acute otitis media (AOM) in children ages 2 to 17 years at 135 care locations affiliated with Vanderbilt University Medical Center (VUMC) and Washington University from 2019 through 2022. The primary outcome was the proportion of 5-day antibiotic prescriptions. The researchers also looked at the proportion of 7-day and 10-day prescriptions, as well as treatment failure, AOM recurrence, hospitalization, and adverse drug events. AOM accounts for roughly 25% of all antibiotics prescribed to children annually. The American Academy of Pediatrics AOM guidelines, published in 2013, recommend durations of 5 to 7 days for children ages 2 years and older with uncomplicated AOM. But previous studies have found most children receive longer durations.Of the 73,198 AOM encounters included in the study, 61,612 (84%) resulted in an antibiotic prescription, and only 3,144 (5%) of those prescriptions were for 5 days; 12,060 (20%) were for 7 days and 45,689 (75%) were for 10 days. Ten-day durations were more common at Washington University than VUMC (78% vs 70%) while 7-day prescriptions were more common at VUMC (25% vs 17%). Non-first line antibiotics were prescribed in 30% of cases. Across both health systems, treatment failure, AOM recurrence, hospitalization, and mastoiditis were rare, as were office, emergency department, or urgent care visits for AOM within 30 days of the index visit."Antibiotic prescribing for AOM is an important opportunity to improve antibiotic stewardship in children," they wrote. "Shortening durations of therapy for AOM has the potential to markedly reduce antibiotic exposure among children; this may lead to important reductions in the development of antibiotic resistance, adverse events, and other unintended consequences of antibiotics."

Study: Teens at public hospitals less likely to start, complete HPV vaccine series - US teens who received recommended vaccines at public healthcare centers in 2020 were less likely to initiate and complete the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine series than those at private facilities, finds a study published yesterday in JAMA Pediatrics.Led by researchers at the Henry Ford Health System, the study also found that teens at public centers had lower odds of receiving a clinician recommendation for the vaccine.The team sampled data from the 2020 National Immunization Survey–Teen on 20,162 patients aged 13 to 17 years. Initiation was defined as receipt of at least one dose of HPV vaccine, and completion was considered at least two or three doses.About 31,000 HPV-related cancers are diagnosed annually in the United States. "The HPV vaccine can prevent more than 90% of these cancers, yet national uptake remains lower than the Healthy People 2030 target of 80% completion," the authors wrote.A total of 81.4% of teens received a recommendation for the vaccine, while 75.1% started and 58.6% completed the series. Public-facility patients were 38% less likely to receive a clinician recommendation than those at private centers (aOR, 0.62).HPV vaccine initiation differed significantly between public (71%) and private (77%) facilities, as did series completion (50% vs 61%, respectively). In adjusted analyses, teens at public centers had 29% lower chances of starting (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.71) and 38% lower odds of completing (aOR, 0.62) the series than those at private facilities. "Public health centers play a crucial role in serving minority communities and in mitigating racial and ethnic disparities in health care," the researchers said. "Urgent actions are needed to enhance clinician participation in the promotion of HPV vaccination, especially in public facilities," they concluded.The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends the HPV vaccine for adolescents aged 11 to 12 years and catch-up vaccination for those 13 to 26.

“Pharmacy deserts” grow as Rite Aid closes most Michigan operations and drug store chains shutter locations across the US - Pharmacy giant Rite Aid, in Chapter 11 bankruptcy since last October, has shut one-third of its drugstores nationally. Michigan is the hardest hit state, set to lose at least 165 of its 185 Rite Aid pharmacies and its Pontiac area distribution center. The Waterford Township Distribution Center, employing 191 warehouse workers, will close on August 16. A conservative estimate of the number of pharmacy jobs being cut in Michigan is at least 2,100, although the corporation has refused to reveal the actual total. The president of United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) Local 951 told news media outlet MLive that the union has negotiated severance payments for its 325 members in Western Michigan. However, neither the UFCW nor any other union has lifted a finger to fight this attack on workers’ jobs and healthcare. On the contrary, the unions act to stifle opposition and facilitate the shutdowns by allotting minuscule “severance” payments. The nationwide Rite Aid chain, the seventh largest in the US, filled about 2.2 percent of US prescriptions last year. Since filing for bankruptcy, Rite Aid is on track to close 694 stores nationwide, including 74 percent of Ohio stores. CVS, the largest US drugstore chain, has closed 244 stores since 2019 and says it will shutter 900 more, about 300 per year over the next three years. Walgreens, the number two US chain by volume, has announced plans to close a “significant” number of its 8,600 stores, stating that a full 25 percent of its locations are not profitable. The mass closure of pharmacies is another frontal attack on the US healthcare system, which is being disassembled piece by piece at the hands of Wall Street profiteers. The effect of this drastic assault on patient access to pharmacists and medicines is incalculable. According to the National Institute of Health, “Nationally, 15.8 million (4.7 percent) of all people in the United States live in pharmacy deserts, spanning urban and rural settings in all 50 states.” In the US, local pharmacies are the leading distributors of vaccines. Pharmacists check for drug interactions, educate patrons on medicines and healthcare, and routinely develop a relationship with their clientele, especially in sparsely populated rural areas or poor communities. These closures will impact pharmacy services at a systemic level by creating bottlenecks that will degrade the efficiency of remaining healthcare services nationwide. Cora Petrosky, a Detroit-area resident with significant health problems, explained to WXYZ-TV why the closure of her local pharmacy is so upsetting. This is the third time I’ve had to move all my [prescription] information. This one [local store] doesn’t have everything; I get my prescriptions filled at two stores. I have to have the medications I have to have. I don’t know what I’m going to do. They’re sending me to Walgreens, and I don’t know if they’re going to have my medication or if I’m going to be starting over again and trying to find it. As to receiving her medicine by mail, which increasingly many people are being forced to do, she said, “Sometimes it doesn’t come. What do you do if it doesn’t come? I can’t wait a week because they don’t have it.”

Americans' trust in doctors, hospitals plunged during pandemic, survey suggests - Trust in US physicians and hospitals fell from 71% to 40% during the COVID-19 pandemic in across sociodemographic groups, a Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH)–led survey study suggests.For the study, the scientists parsed data from 24 waves of an online nonprobability survey fielded to US adults in all 50 states from April 2020 to January 2024. The survey asked about trust in physicians and hospitals, as well as COVID-19 and influenza vaccination status. Respondents were offered incentives such as cash, airline miles, gift cards, or vouchersThe unweighted average participant age was 43.3 years, 65.0% were women, 71.1% were White, 11.1% were Black, 8.7% were Hispanic, 5.0% were Asian-American, 2.2% were of other races, 1.3% were Pacific Islander, and 0.7% were Native American.The findings were posted today in JAMA Network Open."Trust in physicians and hospitals has been associated with achieving public health goals, but the increasing politicization of public health policies during the COVID-19 pandemic may have adversely affected such trust," the researchers wrote. Among the 582,634 survey responses from 443,455 unique adults, trust in doctors and hospitals plummeted from 71.5% to 40.1% across socioeconomic groups over the study period. Adults who reported lower levels of trust were less likely to have received COVID-19 vaccines or boosters.Regression models tied lower trust as of spring and summer 2023 with ages 25 to 64 years, female sex, lower educational attainment, lower income, Black race, and urban residence, even after controlling for political affiliation.Higher levels of trust were linked to a greater odds of COVID-19 vaccination (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.94), flu vaccination (aOR, 5.09), and receipt of a COVID-19 booster dose (aOR, 3.62).Responses from the 200 adults with the two lowest levels of trust indicated perceptions of financial motives over patient care (35.0%), poor quality of care and negligence (27.5%), other (19.5%), influence of external entities and agendas The researchers said the observational study couldn't determine the cause of the trust erosion. But they said that, when considered in the context of previous studies with similar results, the study "raises the possibility that the decrease in trust during the pandemic could have long-lasting public health implications. If so, effective interventions aimed at restoring trust could have benefits, not only for future pandemics, but for health in the US more generally, at least in terms of vaccination."

A warning to healthcare workers: Nurses union ordered to pay $6 million for strike over COVID protections - Healthcare workers entering into struggle over low pay, short staffing and abysmal working conditions, including over 7,100 Michigan Medicine workers, should take a warning from the recent court ruling assessing damages against the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) for an “illegal” strike by nurses at HCA Healthcare in California during the early days of the pandemic. On May 31, the Service Employees International Union 121 RN was ordered by a federal arbitrator to pay $6.26 million in damages to the for-profit hospital chain HCA Healthcare for holding an “unlawful strike” in June 2020. The nurses were fighting for more staff and personal protective equipment in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic as many of their colleagues fell ill. According to a news release from the Riverside Community Hospital in Riverside, California, the SEIU was found liable for a May 2023 decision for a 10-day strike that “deprived the hospital of the rights it was due” under a collective bargaining agreement. The ruling sets a dangerous precedent where strikes in certain critical areas of public life and the economy can be declared “illegal.” In the ruling, the arbitrator will award damages to cover the cost of replacing employees who left their jobs during the strike. The arbitrator also ruled that while the initial reason for the strike, understaffing, was valid under the nurses’ contracts, the issues related to PPE were not. SEIU Local 121 RN stated they would seek to reverse the decision. The 2020 nurses strike at the Riverside Community Hospital took place at the onset of the global pandemic during the initial wave of mass infections and deaths. Like healthcare workers throughout the world, they were on the front lines of the fight against COVID. At the time, the Intensive Care Units (ICUs) were beyond capacity, with many nurses reporting working up to 13 hours a day with no breaks. Hospitals in neighboring Los Angeles and throughout the country were also running out of hospital beds to take care of the influx of COVID-19 patients. The haphazard government response to the pandemic greatly exacerbated the situation facing hospitals and while the exact nature of the virus was still not fully understood it was undeniable that nurses and staff faced a greater likelihood of contracting the disease. However, instead of quarantine measures and increased protections for at-risk workers, Governor Gavin Newsom, taking a lead from the Trump and then Biden administrations, simply asked the public to practice social distancing and wear masks, of any kind and quality. Soon even the most meager mitigation measures would be lessened, and eventually abandoned entirely. To this day, the airborne nature of COVID-19 has never clearly been explained to the public. At the time of the strike in Riverside County, ICU beds were at 99 percent capacity going into the summer, and rather than prepare for a surge of patients, HCA Healthcare threatened to fire 10 percent of the nurses unless they accepted wage freezes, the end of company contributions to pensions and other cuts. HCA Healthcare also brought in scab workers to replace striking workers, the same scab workers that nurses are being asked to pay for, according to the recent ruling. At least two workers at Riverside Community Hospital had already died from COVID infections and nurses at 19 of HCA’s hospitals filed complaints with the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) for having to reuse gowns and not being given N-95 respirators. The threat to cut hours and reassign nurses to different positions and the resulting increased workloads forced workers into strike action. While claiming there was no money to be found to assist nurses and provide them more resources, HCA Healthcare was the recipient of approximately $1 billion in bailout funds from the misnamed “CARES” Act stimulus package. Even before the pandemic, HCA Healthcare was one of the wealthiest hospital systems in the world, with $51 billion in revenue in 2019, and paying its CEO $26 million while making $7 billion in profits over the previous two years. Workers at the hospitals were prepared to fight for better conditions and pay, but the SEIU, along with all the other corporatist healthcare unions, stood by as thousands of healthcare workers succumbed to the virus, and played its own role in isolating the struggle.

Healthy pre-COVID lifestyle may protect against severe infection --A University of Oxford-led study links a healthy pre-infection lifestyle to a 36% lower risk of long COVID, a 41% lower odds of death, and 22% lower chance of hospitalization.The researchers assessed the association of modifiable lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, alcohol use, body mass index, physical activity, time spent in sedentary activities, sleep duration, diet) with long COVID, death, and hospitalization among 68,896 adults in the UK Biobank cohort who tested positive for COVID-19 from March 2020 to March 2022. The average participant age was 66.6 years, 53.4% were men, and 82.1% were White. A total of 12.3% followed an unfavorable lifestyle (0 to 4 healthy habits), 41.3% had an intermediate lifestyle (5 healthy habits), and 46.4% adhered to a favorable lifestyle (6 to 10). Participants adhered to a median of 7 healthy lifestyle factors. The results were published today in Nature Communications. A total of 5.5% and 7.8% had long-COVID signs or symptoms in at least one studied organ system during and after infection, respectively. A healthy lifestyle was tied to a 36% lower risk of long COVID (absolute risk reduction [ARR] at 210 days, 7.1%) compared with an unfavorable lifestyle. And an intermediate lifestyle was linked to a 20% lower risk of long COVID, compared with an unhealthy lifestyle (ARR, 3.9%). The number of favorable lifestyle factors was tied to the risk of long COVID in a dose-dependent manner. Risk reductions affected all organ systems studied (cardiovascular, coagulation, metabolic, gastrointestinal, kidney, mental health, musculoskeletal, and respiratory, as well as fatigue). The benefits were primarily driven by lifestyle, independent of pre-infection illnesses (proportion of direct effect on any sign or symptom, 71%). A healthy lifestyle was linked to a 41% lower risk of post-COVID death and a 22% lower odds of hospital admission. These association were seen regardless of pre- or post-infection status, hospitalization status, vaccination status, or SARS-CoV-2 variant. Pre-COVID medical conditions—especially cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and mental illness—were linked to a substantially increased risk of long COVID. The study authors said that a healthy lifestyle may lower the risk of severe COVID-19 and death by protecting against inflammation, abnormal immune responses (autoimmunity), and abnormal clotting.

Young adults at higher risk of hearing loss after COVID infection, data suggest -- The risk of hearing loss (HL) and sensorineural hearing loss (SSNHL) in young adults rose after COVID-19 infection from 2020 to 2022, according to a study by South Korean researchers, who urge cautious interpretation of the results due to a lack of objective audiologic data and other limitations.The team analyzed data on 6.7 million adults aged 20 to 39 years without a history of HL from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency–COVID-19 National Health Insurance Service from January 2020 to December 2022. The average participant age was 29.6 years, 49.0% were men, 72.0% had COVID-19, and 93.1% had completed the primary COVID-19 vaccination series at baseline.HL was diagnosed when a participant heard sounds at or above 25 decibels (dB) only, based on the average pure-tone hearing threshold of 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 kilohertz. The diagnostic criteria for SSNHL were a rapid progression of COVID-19 within 72 hours with a HL of 30 dB or more at three consecutive frequencies.The research was published yesterday in eClinicalMedicine."Recent case reports have documented sudden HL in young adults with no prior hearing issues after COVID-19 infection, suggesting that hearing problems among young individuals have emerged as a new public health issue following the COVID-19 pandemic," the study authors wrote. "HL in young individuals can significantly impact their quality of life, academic and occupational performance, and social functioning."There were 38,269 HL cases and 5,908 SSNHL cases during the study period. The risk of HL was higher in the COVID-19 cohort than in the uninfected group (incidence, 11.9 vs 3.4 per 10,000 person-months [PMs]; subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR], 3.51; dyslipidemia-adjusted SHR [aSHR], 3.44), as was the risk of SSNHL (incidence, 1.8 vs 0.5 per 10,000 PMs; SHR, 3.58; aSHR, 3.52).A sensitivity analysis showed that the rate of HL and SSNHL was higher in patients who had undergone a health screening exam than in the rest of the study population. Similar to the findings of the primary analysis, an analysis of the health-screening cohort linked COVID-19 to higher risks of HL (aSHR, 3.55) and SSNHL (aSHR, 3.43). A stratified analysis showed that the highest risk of COVID-related HL was seen in young adults with diabetes (aSHR, 4.12), and the highest risk of SSNHL was also in those with diabetes (aSHR, 4.44), followed by those with abnormal cholesterol levels (aSHR, 4.25). No significant interaction was found for COVID-19 vaccination in evaluating the association of COVID-19 and the risk of HL or SSNHL by vaccination status."These findings suggest that healthcare providers should be aware of the increased risk of hearing impairments in young adult COVID-19 patients and consider appropriate screening and follow-up," the researchers wrote. "Additionally, these results may inform public health policies regarding COVID-19 management and vaccination strategies, emphasizing the importance of protecting young adults from infection to prevent potential long-term auditory complications."

International study supports use of lung ultrasound for COVID-19 triage --Lung ultrasounds (LUS) can help clinicians quickly and accurately decide if a COVID-19 patient needs respiratory help, according to findings of a new international study reported in The Journal of Infectious Diseases.The study took place from June 2020 to June 2023 at two major US military hospitals, a homeless shelter, emergency room, and in a referral hospital in rural Uganda. COVID-19 patients were given a 12-zone LUS at the time of enrollment as a point-of-care tool.LUS, the authors found, was a useful way to assess the top predictors of worsening disease, measured as cross-validated area under the curve (cvAUC). The top predictor was B-lines (cvAUC, 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.87 to 0.90), discrete B-lines (0.87; 95% CI, 0.85 to 0.88), oxygen saturation (0.82; 95% CI, 0.81 to 0.84), and A-lines (0.80; 95% CI, 0.78 to 0.81)."Despite differences in patient populations, ultrasound clinical settings, and COVID era, B-lines in 25 to 50% of lung fields was consistently sensitive for identifying those at risk of progression and confluent B-lines in ≥25% of lung fields were specific," the authors wrote. "Our results demonstrate that among individuals with COVID-19, point-of-care ultrasound is useful for triage decisions across a broad array of clinical settings."

CDC study highlights COVID's impact on infection control, multidrug-resistant pathogens in hospitals -A new study by researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) illustrates the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic had on infection control (IC) practices in US hospitals, even in parts of the country that experienced lower SARS-CoV-2 transmission.The study, published yesterday in the American Journal of Infection Control, describes outbreaks of emerging multidrug-resistant organisms (eMDROs) in 18 healthcare facilities in 10 states over the course of the pandemic. Survey results from the facilities indicate that changes in IC practices linked to the pandemic—along with shortages of and strategies to conserve personal protective equipment (PPE) —may have contributed to eMDRO transmission.The study is the latest to link the pandemic's impact on US hospital staffing and PPE to increases in multidrug-resistant hospital infections documented over the past several years.The findings are based on an analysis of outbreak report forms submitted to the CDC by health departments in 11 states by March 12, 2021. The forms collected facility and cluster characteristics, the number of patients associated with each cluster, patient outcomes, IC practices, changes in IC practices and in frontline healthcare personnel (HCP) staffing due to the pandemic, and the local epidemiology of eMDROs and SARS-CoV-2.Overall, 18 clusters of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE, 10), carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa (CRPA, 1), carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB, 1), and Candida auris (6) were reported by facilities in 10 states. The clusters affected 345 patients in 11 acute care hospitals and 52 patients in 6 post-acute care facilities. A cluster reported in a long-term acute care hospital did not have information available on the number of affected patients.Among the 17 clusters with information available, 5 (29%) were first recognized in a non-COVID unit, 7 (41%) occurred in facilities located in communities with moderate to substantial SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and 10 (59%) in jurisdictions where the eMDRO was considered endemic or regional. The pooled proportion of patients co-infected with SARS-CoV-2 was 54%.Among the facilities with available information on HCP staffing, 10 (71%) of 15 said they increased the use of contracted or agency HCP relative to pre-pandemic practices, 8 (53%) of 15 reassigned HCP to units with a different patient acuity than where they typically worked, and 7 (58%) of 12 reassigned cleaning duties to HCP who were also providing direct patient care.Of the facilities with information about PPE availability, 9 (60%) of 15 reported a shortage of isolation gowns, and 11 (69%) of 16 reported extended use of gowns (HCPs wearing the same gown when interacting with more than one patient), irrespective of an actual shortage. And although only 1 (7%) of 15 facilities reported a glove shortage, 3 (19%) of 16 reported extended use of gloves without changing them between patients.

Study spotlights psychiatric, cognitive problems years after severe COVID-19 --Psychiatric and cognitive symptoms appear to increase over the first 2 to 3 years post-hospitalization for COVID-19, due to both worsening of symptoms already present at 6 months and the emergence of new symptoms, according to a study yesterday in The Lancet Psychiatry. The study offers new evidence suggesting long COVID can worsen psychiatric prognosis: Overall, psychiatric symptoms at 2 to 3 years post-infection were linked not to COVID-19 severity, but to persistence of COVID-19 symptoms at 6 months post-infection."Objective cognitive deficits at 2–3 years were not predicted by any of the factors tested, except for cognitive deficits at 6 months, explaining 10.6% of their variance," the authors wrote.The findings come from the Post-hospitalization COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID), a longitudinal study in the United Kingdom. A subset of the study assessed participants for up to 3 years and had them complete eight cognitive tasks, covering eight cognitive domains, and take several depression and anxiety scales."We evaluated how the absolute risks of symptoms evolved between follow-ups at 6 months, 12 months, and 2–3 years, and whether symptoms at 2–3 years were predicted by earlier aspects of COVID-19 illness," the authors wrote.A total of 353 participants were analyzed in the 2 to 3 year follow up. Most (74.5%) reported at least mild depression, 53.5% reported anxiety, 62.3% reported fatigue, and 52.1% reported subjective cognitive decline. Almost a fourth (22.4%) reported severe depression.Notably, 95 of 353 participants (26.9%) reported occupational change, with poor health being the most common reason for this change, the authors said. Occupation change was significantly associated with objective cognitive deficits (odds ratio [OR], 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04 to 2.22) for every standard deviation decrease in overall cognitive score.The impact on job performance and occupation change adds more evidence to understanding long COVID has a significant factor in job loss."Long term consequences, especially for thinking skills, have been noted in several reports and of course by the Covid-19 survivors themselves. This paper quantifies their concerns and points out that we need better interventions to prevent or treat these long term issues," said Dame Til Wykes, PhD, of King's College London, in an expert reaction on the Science Media Centre site."We know cognitive problems are associated with loss of employment in general and these Covid-19 patients also report changing jobs due to thinking difficulties not their mental health symptoms."She concluded, "These results are important, but they refer to those who were the most affected by Covid-19. New treatments that have been introduced, as well as vaccinations, will reduce the numbers of people needing admission and should decrease these after-effects. But we do need to know how prevalent these problems are in those not admitted but were treated at home, as they too might need further support and intervention."

Study: COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated depression in adults with diabetes -A new study in the Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics Plus shows that older Canadians with diabetes experienced spikes in depression during the COVID-19 pandemic.The study was based on results of the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging surveys, which polled Canadian residents aged 45 to 85 who were recruited in 2012 to 2015 and subsequently completed three follow-up surveys beginning in the fall of 2020. A total of 2,730 people with diabetes were included in this study, the authors said.Participants with diabetes and a history of depression were the most at risk for experiencing a new episode of depression when the pandemic started, with almost half reporting depression during COVID-19 (48.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 45.4% to 51.7%).Among participants with diabetes and no history of depression, the incidence of new depression was 12.9% (95% CI, 11.3% to 14.4%) during the pandemic.Being female was associated with depression. Men had 38% lower odds of developing depression than women did (odds ratio 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.87)."Those with a history of depression also had lower household income, less total savings, and were less able to satisfy their needs with their income prior to the pandemic," the authors wrote."The pandemic has taken a significant toll on the mental health of everyone, particularly older adults with chronic conditions such as diabetes," said study co-author Grace Li, a research assistant and PhD candidate at the University of Toronto's Institute for Life Course and Aging, in a press release. "It's important for primary health providers to be vigilant for signs of depression among their older patients, even those who were doing well in the past."In conclusion, the authors of the study said the findings should prompt clinicians to ask diabetes patients about depression symptoms, especially during periods of increased stress.

Risk of heart attack, stroke drops after COVID vaccination, data show - A study today involving 46 million adults in England shows that the incidence of both heart attacks and strokes dropped following COVID-19 vaccination compared to the incidence before or without vaccination.The study authors said the incidence of common cardiovascular diseases dropped after every COVID-19 vaccination, but COVID-19 vaccination was associated with slightly increased rates of myocarditis and pericarditis following mRNA-based vaccines, and vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia following adenovirus-based vaccines such as the AstraZeneca vaccine.The study was based on findings from the British Heart Foundation (BHF) Data Science Centre at Health Data Research UK, with researchers analyzing de-identified health records from 45.7 million adults in England from December 8, 2020, to January 23, 2022.During that period, 90% of UK adults were vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna, or AstraZeneca.Among the study participants, 37.3 million people received a first vaccination and were eligible for the second dose during the study period. Patients had 5,655 arterial and 21,230 venous thrombotic events during the study period. Other less frequent cardiac events included 1,885 cases of thrombocytopenia, 590 of myocarditis, and 455 of pericarditis.Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for arterial thrombotic events 13 to 24 weeks after first vaccine dose were 0.99 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97 to 1.02) after AstraZeneca, and 0.90 (0.88 to 0.93) after Pfizer vaccines. Corresponding aHRs after second doses were 0.73 (0.70 to 0.76) and 0.80 (0.77 to 0.83), respectively, the authors said."For all vaccine brands and doses, aHRs in the first few weeks were lower than in later weeks," the authors said.

The 2024 Paris Olympics COVID-19 superspreader event -The normalization of massive police presence targeting the working class in Paris during the 2024 Olympic games has gone hand in hand with the normalization of mass infection with COVID-19. At the Paris Olympics, all public health precautions have been cast to the wind. Millions of people, including 2 million tourists from abroad, are expected to visit the various venues being held across France to watch 11,310 athletes from 206 countries competing in 48 different sporting events. More than 45,000 riot and military police are deployed on the ground, water and air, with helicopters, drones and snipers at the ready, placing Paris in a state of siege. Before the games started, five of Australia’s women water polo players tested positive for COVID-19. This was followed by several as yet unidentified members of the Belgian Olympic delegation. This led to mounting concerns among workers that the Olympics will lead to a massive superspreading event, particularly as mutations to the virus have accelerated transmission. A group of volunteer workers at the Olympics issued a public statement on the Médiapart website threatening to resign en masse if public authorities did not address the COVID-19 threat. Demanding policies of masking, vaccination, ventilation and air purification, they wrote: “Covid-19 pandemic threat denial is not an antidote to contamination.” They added: We have been enthusiastic in the preparation of the Games as international volunteers. However, we are more and more worried at the lack of any action from the organizers to address the epidemic of Covid-19 that is still going on across Europe and the world. We demand effective sanitary measures against the virus, to protect the inhabitants of Paris and Seine-Saint-Denis, the athletes, the public, and the volunteers. If no steps are taken, we will collectively resign of our assignments, and will not show up on the Oympic and Paralympic sites we have been staffed. While French authorities and the Olympic organizers have not acknowledged the COVID-19 threat, the same summer surge in France is well underway that has impacted neighboring countries since June, including Germany and Italy, as a result of waning population immunity. The impact of the virus at the recent Tour de France, which took place from the end of June to July 21, should be seen as a warning of things to come at the Olympics. The entire event was plagued by COVID-19 infections among the elite riders, four of whom had to drop out to recover from their infections, while others continued to ride and place other competitors at risk. No protocols were established ahead of the multi-day racing event. Only near the end of the event, on July 14, did Amaury Sport Organization, the main organizer of the cycling event, ask journalists to don masks when interacting with the riders and their support staff. Yet the Paris Olympics are proceeding without any significant public health safeguards, even after the catastrophic experience of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics that were postponed to 2021 due to the pandemic. At that time, amid mass protests and concerns about the potential consequences of allowing the games to proceed, Olympic organizers held the event with hardly any spectators to watch the games, at a cost of $6 billion in public money. Still, Japan saw a massive wave of infections that late summer and early fall. The Tokyo COVID-19 Monitoring Committee meeting held on August 20, 2021 warned: “Infections will rampage through the nation to a disastrous level. This is an emergency.” And indeed, after the 2021 Olympics, the surge of infections across Japan accelerated, and health authorities soon abandoned any pretense of trying to keep the Omicron strain from running rampant in the population. More than 80 percent of all the official 75,000 COVID-19 deaths in Japan occurred after the Olympics. This was in keeping with the official practice, promoted in the United States by Anthony Fauci, of using the Omicron strain as a “live virus vaccine.” The pandemic has claimed over 27 million excess deaths, and the number of people afflicted with Long COVID runs in the hundreds of millions. The current, utter contempt of the authorities for public health threatens disastrous consequences. Beyond the obvious implications to the population, elite athletes who have come to Paris to represent their countries in these sporting events face a formidable risk that an infection may very well end their hopes to compete or win a medal. Indeed, a 2023 study in the Annals of Medicine found that aerobic performance of elite football players remained lowered for weeks after a COVID-19 infection, noting, “SARS-CoV-2 infection has been shown to induce capillary flow disturbances, which are shown to shorten blood transit times through the remaining, patent capillaries, thereby limiting oxygen uptake. So, these capillary disturbances are expected to reduce the endurance capacity of elite players.”

Greece’s COVID surge in holiday season fuels global spread -- Hospitals across Greece are being swamped with rising hospital admissions of COVID-19 patients. According to the latest weekly figures—released on July 25 for the week beginning July 15—there were 788 admissions compared to an average of 551 over the previous four weeks. The number admitted to hospital for the week beginning July 15 was over 2.5 times higher than the same week last year. Deaths from COVID have been steadily increasing with the latest report recording 35 new fatalities, up from the average of 23 over the previous four weeks and twice as many as the same time last year. Speaking to the Athens New Agency’s radio station on July 20 Garyfallia Poulakou, an infectious disease specialist at the Sotiria Hospital in Athens, estimated that nearly every household in Greece has got at least one person ill with COVID. She stated, “We don’t know if [the wave] has peaked yet. My sense is that more or less the same intensity will be seen during the next month as well.” The rise in cases is part of the wider COVID wave raging across the globe driven by the latest variants of SARS-CoV-2—the FliRT subvariants of Omicron, KP.3 and KP.2—which based on official data have been the dominant strains in Greece since the middle of April. Tourism is a big factor in the spread of the current wave. According to the wastewater data collected over the past few weeks from urban areas, cities which have seen the sharpest rises are those most closely associated with tourism. The biggest weekly rise since the start of June was recorded in the city of Chania on the island of Crete. In the week beginning June 17 Chania saw a 204 percent rise of the viral load compared with the previous week. Talking about the situation at Athens’ Sotiria Hospital Poulakou confirmed that COVID wards are struggling to cope with increased admissions, after capacity was reduced to a minimum during recent months. She added that “gradually all clinics [within the hospital] are having to admit COVID cases as well in some of their wards, in order to keep up with increasing demand.” This will inevitably increase the spread of the disease, which will only intensify the pressure on hospitals. This was underscored by a press release by the local union of hospital workers at the Kilkis General Hospital in Northern Greece which stated that after the COVID-19 department was shut down in April this year, COVID patients are being hospitalised at the severely understaffed General Pathology Clinic: “Since the beginning of July 12 patients have been admitted [with COVID] seven of whom are still hospitalised. After COVID spread to a nurse as well as patients already ill with other diseases, three patients unfortunately died.” Metaxas Cancer Hospital in Piraeus introduced mask mandates and compulsory testing on July 15 in response to the rise in cases. Speaking to state broadcaster ERT, the hospital’s director Sarantos Efstathopoulos said the measures were brought in following an “upward trend” in the proportion of cases noted among staff and patients. Asked why these additional measures have not been extended to other big hospitals in the wider Attica region (population over 3.8 million) Efthathopoulos replied, “People should remember that for many months now the implementation of measures is not compulsory not just in Greece but in the whole of Europe. Each hospital can decide on its own the strictness of the measures it takes”, adding that that cancer patient at the Metaxas hospital are “more clinically vulnerable to all infections not just COVID.” This fragmented approach exposes the complete breakdown of public health measures to curb the spread of the COVID virus. The mandate at Metaxas is subject to review on July 29 and will no doubt be lifted once cases are deemed to be at an “acceptable” level. In April, as the COVID winter wave retreated, all limited measures within healthcare settings were lifted while in March last year all COVID specific ICUs were scrapped.

SARS-CoV-2 widespread in Virginia wildlife, likely from people -An examination of 23 common wildlife species in Virginia finds evidence of SARS-CoV-infection in 6 and antibodies indicating previous infection in 5.For the study, published today in Nature Communications, Virginia Tech researchers collected 789 nasal and oral swabs and 126 blood samples from animals live-trapped and released or being treated at wildlife rehabilitation centers in Virginia and Washington, DC, from May 2022 to September 2023.Deer mice, opossums, raccoons, groundhogs, Eastern cottontail rabbits, and Eastern red bats had signs of infection, and isolates from an opossum showed previously unreported viral mutations closely matching the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant circulating in people at the time, which the authors said suggests at least seven recent human-to-animal virus transmission events. The mutations could alter the virus's effects on people.The team also identified two mice on the same day with the same variant, indicating that one mouse infected the other or that they both were infected by the same person.Further supporting human-to-animal viral spread was the finding of the highest SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence near hiking trails and other public areas. Some opossums, raccoons, Eastern gray squirrels, white-footed mice, and deer mice had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.Transmission could have taken place via wastewater, trash bins, or discarded food. There was no evidence of animal-to-human transmission.SARS-CoV-2 infections have been previously identified in wildlife such as white-tailed deer and mink. "The virus is indifferent to whether its host walks on two legs or four," Finkielstein said.

Virginia wildlife contracts COVID-19 from humans, study reveals --Six common wildlife species in Virginia have high rates of the virus that causes COVID-19 — a disease they likely caught from humans. The virus has been found in deer mice, Virginia opossum, raccoons, groundhogs, Eastern cottontails and Eastern red bats, according to findings in Nature. “I think the big take home message is the virus is pretty ubiquitous,” said Amanda Goldberg of the Virginia Tech Department of Biological Sciences. That meant little danger to humans from wildlife, researchers found. There was no evidence of humans catching COVID-19 from wildlife. The same was not true in reverse. Animals living in sites with high human traffic — like hiking trails — had three times the levels of COVID-19 markers in their blood as animals farther from people. For example, researchers found two mice on the same day with identical variants of COVID-19, which suggests they caught it from the same human — or each other. The method of infection seemed to be discarded food from infected hikers, researchers said. “The virus can jump from humans to wildlife when we are in contact with them, like a hitchhiker switching rides to a new, more suitable host,” said Carla Finkielstein of Virginia Tech. The virus, Finkielstein added, “is indifferent to whether its host walks on two legs or four. Its primary objective is survival.” For COVID-19, she said, “the goal … is to spread in order to survive.” With the vast majority of humans protected from infection by vaccines, “the virus turns to animals.”

Virus that causes COVID-19 is widespread in wildlife, scientists find - SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, is widespread among wildlife species, according to Virginia Tech research published July 29, 2024 in Nature Communications. The virus was detected in six common backyard species, and antibodies indicating prior exposure to the virus were found in five species, with rates of exposure ranging from 40 to 60% depending on the species.Genetic tracking in wild animals confirmed both the presence of SARS-CoV-2 and the existence of unique viral mutations with lineages closely matching variants circulating in humans at the time, further supporting human-to-animal transmission, the study found.The highest exposure to SARS CoV-2 was found in animals near hiking trails and high-traffic public areas, suggesting the virus passed from humans to wildlife, according to scientists at the Fralin Biomedical Research Institute at VTC, the Department of Biological Sciences in Virginia Tech's College of Science, and the Fralin Life Sciences Institute.The findings highlight the identification of novel mutations in SARS-CoV-2 in wildlife and the need for broad surveillance, researchers say. These mutations could be more harmful and transmissible, creating challenges for vaccine development. The scientists stressed, however, that they found no evidence of the virus being transmitted from animals to humans, and people should not fear typical interactions with wildlife.Investigators tested animals from 23 common Virginia species for both active infections and antibodies indicating previous infections. They found signs of the virus in deer mice, Virginia opossums, raccoons, groundhogs, Eastern cottontail rabbits, and Eastern red bats. The virus isolated from one opossum showed viral mutations that were previously unreported and can potentially impact how the virus affects humans and their immune response."The virus can jump from humans to wildlife when we are in contact with them, like a hitchhiker switching rides to a new, more suitable host," SARS CoV-2 infections were previously identified in wildlife, primarily in white-tailed deer and feral mink. The Virginia Tech study significantly expands the number of species examined and the understanding of virus transmission to and among wildlife. The data suggests exposure to the virus has been widespread in wildlife and that areas with high human activity may serve as points of contact for cross-species transmission."This study was really motivated by seeing a large, important gap in our knowledge about SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a broader wildlife community," said Joseph Hoyt, assistant professor of Biological Sciences in Virginia Tech's College of Science and corresponding author on the paper. "A lot of studies to date have focused on white-tailed deer, while what is happening in much of our common backyard wildlife remains unknown."The research team collected 798 nasal and oral swabs across Virginia from animals either live-trapped in the field and released, or being treated by wildlife rehabilitation centers. The team also obtained 126 blood samples from six species. The locations were chosen to compare the presence of the virus in animals in sites with varying levels of human activity, from urban areas to remote wilderness.The study also identified two mice at the same site on the same day with the exact same variant, indicating they either both got it from the same human, or one infected the other. Researchers are not certain about the means of transmission from humans to animals. One possibility is wastewater, but the Virginia Tech scientists believe trash receptacles and discarded food are more likely sources."I think the big take home message is the virus is pretty ubiquitous," . "We found positives in a large suite of common backyard animals."

Review and meta-analysis finds high rates of antibiotic resistance in hypervirulent Klebsiella - A systematic review and meta-analysis found high rates of resistance to older and newer antibiotics in strains of hypervirulent Klebsiella pneumoniae (hvKp), researchers reported last week in the Journal of Global Antimicrobial Resistance.Although K pneumoniae has long been recognized as an opportunistic pathogen that can cause a wide range of infections in vulnerable, immunocompromised hospital patients, hvKp strains have emerged in recent years as a new threat. In contrast to "classic" K pneumoniae strains, hvKp can cause severe infections in healthy individuals that quickly disseminate to various body sites. And while initial hvKp strains were limited to Asia and were rarely resistant to antibiotics, they've spread globally and acquired multiple antibiotic resistance genes. "The convergence of hypervirulence and antibiotic resistance in these strains presents a formidable challenge as traditional treatment options have become increasingly limited," researchers from the Pasteur Institute of Iran wrote. In their meta-analysis of 77 studies from 17 countries across 4 continents, the researchers found high rates of resistance in hvKp to older antibiotics, including ampicillin (95%), ampicillin/sulbactam (45.1%); third-generation cephalosporins, including cefotaxime (64.2%) and ceftazidime (55.9%); and the carbapenem antibiotics imipenem (44.8%), meropenem (51.4%), and ertapenem (42.6%). Quinolones, such as ciprofloxacin and levofloxacin, exhibited resistance of 46.3% and 35.5%, respectively, while azithromycin resistance was prevalent at 76.3%. Among newer antibiotics, colistin, fosfomycin, and nitrofurantoin resistance rates were 15.3%, 51.1%, and 39.2%, respectively.The meta-analysis also found a trend of increasing resistance to several antibiotics over time, significant differences in resistance across countries and regions, and variabilities in testing methods and standards.The authors say global collaboration, standardized testing protocols, and tailored regional interventions will be needed effectively combat the threat of resistance in hvKp strains. "This study serves as an urgent call for healthcare professionals, researchers, and policymakers to address this burgeoning public health challenge, and significantly contributes to the understanding of antibiotic resistance in hvKp strains, offering valuable insights for future research, clinical practice, and the development of public health policies," they wrote.

WHO warns of increase in hypervirulent, multidrug-resistant Klebsiella strains -- The World Health Organization (WHO) is warning countries about increasing reports of hypervirulent and multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (hvKp).The warning is based on a global assessment the WHO conducted through its Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Surveillance System (GLASS), which issued a request for information earlier this year to all countries enrolled in the system after receiving reports of increased identification of hvKp isolates in several countries. Of the 43 countries and territories that responded to the WHO request, 16 reported the presence of hvKp strains.In contrast to "classic" K pneumoniae, an opportunistic pathogen that is a leading cause of healthcare-associated infections and tends to cause infections in vulnerable, immunocompromised hospitalized patients, hvKp strains can cause severe invasive infections in healthy individuals that develop quickly and spread to various body sites. Infections caused by hvKp strains have been associated with high morbidity and mortality. Although hvKp infections were initially found community settings in parts of Asia and were susceptible to antibiotics, recent reports have shown transmission of multidrug-resistant hvKp strains in healthcare settings in several countries. The WHO is particularly concerned about one strain of hvKp, sequence type (ST)23, a strain that carries genes (carbapenemase genes) that confer resistance to carbapenem antibiotics and all available beta-lactam antibiotics. Experts say the combination of hypervirulence and carbapenem-resistance genes in K pneumoniae strains is worrisome. "In general, carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacteria are a major concern as the ability to treat them is severely constrained," Amesh Adalja, MD, FIDSA, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, told CIDRAP News. "When you couple carbapenem-resistance with the hypervirulence exhibited by certain strains of K pneumoniae it is a recipe for increased morbidity and mortality from this bacterium." In addition, the WHO noted that ST23 strains out-compete other gut bacteria, which can facilitate colonization and spread, and have the capacity to generate outbreaks. The WHO said in its assessment that with the concurrence of hypervirulence and antibiotic resistance, "it is expected that there will be an increased risk of spread of these strains at both the community and hospital levels."Of the 16 countries that reported the presence of hvKp strains, 12 (Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Canada, India, Iran, Japan, Oman, Philippines, Switzerland, Thailand, and the United Kingdom) specifically reported the presence of the ST23-K1 strain. The United States is among the countries that reported the presence of hvKp strains.The WHO said the risk at the global level is moderate because there is currently no systematic surveillance for the routine identification, reporting, and monitoring of hvKp strains, and data on infections, hospitalizations, and the burden of disease are limited. Furthermore, many low-resource countries have limited diagnostic capacity and lack the molecular testing to identify virulence or resistance genes. And even in countries that have the ability to identify and analyze hvKp strains, the agency said, many physicians are unfamiliar with the clinical presentation of hvKp infections, and hvKp "may go unnoticed.""The prevention and control of carbapenem-resistant hvKp poses significant challenges because it has not been possible to establish the extent of its dissemination in the countries of the different regions and information on this subject is currently limited," the WHO said.The WHO is advising countries to increase laboratory and capacity to allow for early and reliable identification of hvKp strains, reinforce laboratory capacities for molecular testing and analysis, develop a surveillance system for the systematic collection of microbiologic and clinical data, and implement enhanced infection prevention and control measures in healthcare settings. The agency also said it will help countries strengthen clinical and public health awareness for the detection of hvKp strains and support development of a consensus definition of hvKp.

Mpox cases spiking in 10 African nations --In a report released this week, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said mpox cases have risen by 160% on the continent this year compared with 2023. While 96% of cases have been recorded in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), several other African countries this week have reported new outbreaks, including Kenya, Cote d’Ivoire, and the Central African Republic (CAR).As of July 28, 2024, a total of 14,250 cases (2,745 confirmed; 11,505 suspected) and 456 deaths (case fatality rate [CFR]: 3.2%) have been recorded in 10 African nations, including Burundi, Cameroon, CAR, Congo, DRC, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria, Rwanda, and South Africa."While mpox is moderately transmissible and usually self-limiting, the case fatality rate has been much higher on the African continent compared to the rest of the world,” the Africa CDC said.Though safe and effective mpox vaccines and antivirals are widely available in the United States and Europe, their use is Some of the cases have been caused by what researchers are calling "clade 1b," a new mpox lineage identified in the DRC last year that is highly transmissible and has a higher CFR than clade 2, which swept across the globe in 2022 among men who have sex with men in a sexual transmission pattern. The CFR for clade 2 is less than 1%, while 1b’s CFR is roughly 6%.There is evidence in the DRC that clade 1b is spreading both through household transmission and sexual transmission, with clade 1b and clade 2 outbreaks occurring simultaneously.Currently the DRC outbreak stands at 13,791 cases (2,628 confirmed; 11,163 suspected) and 450 deaths (CFR: 3.3%), with cases detected in 25 of 26 provinces. Males accounted for 73% of all cases reported, and children under 15 years accounted for 68% of cases and 85% of deaths.Earlier this week, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) issued a statement announcing that, for now, the risk of clade 1b spread to Europe remains low."ECDC is engaging with our partners in Africa in their efforts to contain this outbreak for the benefit of all those affected, prevent this new variant from spreading any further and reinforce future preparedness and response capabilities," said Pamela Rendi-Wagner, MD, MSc, director of ECDC, in a statement. Last week, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) announced it would launch a clinical trial of the Bavarian Nordic mpox vaccine in the DRC to see if the vaccine protects against infection prophylactically (as a preventive measure).

Gen X, Millennials face higher risk of cancer than other generations - Generation X and millennials face a higher risk of getting certain types of cancer when compared to earlier generations, according to a large new study published Wednesday. In the study, published in the Lancet Public Health journal, researchers from the American Cancer Society (ACS) studied 34 of the most common cancers. They found that cancer incidence rates continued to rise in progressively younger generations in 17 of the cancers, including breast, pancreatic and gastric cancers. For eight of the 17 cancers, researchers found that cancer incidence rates rose for each successive birth cohort since 1920. For nine of them, incidence rates increased in younger cohorts, after first declining in older birth cohorts. “These findings add to growing evidence of increased cancer risk in post-Baby Boomer generations, expanding on previous findings of early-onset colorectal cancer and a few obesity-associated cancers to encompass a broader range of cancer types,” Hyuna Sung, lead author of the study, said in a statement. The study highlighted the need to identify and address the “underlying risk factors in Gen X and Millennial populations” to explain and address these rising cancer rates in younger generations, said Ahmedin Jemal, a senior author of the study. “Birth cohorts, groups of people classified by their birth year, share unique social, economic, political, and climate environments, which affect their exposure to cancer risk factors during their crucial developmental years,” Sung added. “Although we have identified cancer trends associated with birth years, we don’t yet have a clear explanation for why these rates are rising,” Sung added. The study was conducted using data from more than 23 million patients diagnosed with 34 types of cancer during the period beginning Jan. 1, 2000, and ending Dec. 31, 2019. The study also looked at mortality data from more than 7 million deaths for 25 types of cancers during the same period of time. The individuals were all between the ages of 25 and 84. The researchers then calculated the incidence rate ratios of each birth cohort, adjusted for “age effect and period effect.” The cancer incidence rate for the youngest birth cohort, 1990, ranged from 12 percent higher than the birth cohort with the lowest rate, for ovarian cancer, to 169 percent higher than the birth cohort with the lowest rate, for uterine corpus cancer. The cancer incidence rate was also two-to-three times higher for the 1990 birth cohort than for the 1955 birth cohort for pancreatic, kidney, and small intestinal cancers. Jemal warned of the implications of such rising cancer rates. “The increase in cancer rates among this younger group of people indicate generational shifts in cancer risk and often serve as an early indicator of future cancer burden in the country. Without effective population-level interventions, and as the elevated risk in younger generations is carried over as individuals age, an overall increase in cancer burden could occur in the future, halting or reversing decades of progress against the disease.”

Particulate Pollution Is Worse Than We Knew, and Is Damaging ‘Every Organ in the Body’ -Recent research has linked particulate pollution from wildfires with significant increases in dementia. I will be writing about this study tomorrow, but an LA Times article covering the studies quoted one of the authors:“We increasingly see that PM2.5 is tied to virtually every health outcome we look at,” said study author Joan Casey, associate professor of public health at the University of Washington.That statement reminded me of a post, now deleted, that I wrote a few years ago, noting as the title said that particulate pollution was “damaging every organ in the body.” I reconstruct it here from my archives: Those little PM2.5 things go everywhere and are killing us. We have to stop them at the source. For years, we have talked about air pollution being bad for our health, but nobody ever explained why or how. It was often called “smog”, which was a 1905 portmanteau of smoke and fog, basically visible pollution. But the science of what is actually the really harmful component of pollution has been evolving.Even Wikipedia notes that the major sources from traffic emissions are carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, VOCs. “Transportation emissions also include sulfur dioxides and particulates matter but in much smaller quantities than the pollutants mentioned previously.” But as we have noted before on TreeHugger, the science now gives much more significance to that particulate matter, most notably the really small stuff, the particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2.5 μm, known as PM2.5. A recent study, Air Pollution and Noncommunicable Diseases, concludes:[PM2.5] is the fifth leading risk factor for death in the world, accounting for 4.2 million deaths and > 103 million disability-adjusted life years lost according to the Global Burden of Disease Report. The World Health Organization attributes 3.8 million additional deaths to indoor air pollution. Air pollution can harm acutely, usually manifested by respiratory or cardiac symptoms, as well as chronically, potentially affecting every organ in the body.The biggest source of PM2.5 is always smoking and first and second hand. Much of the understanding of the danger of PM2.5 was probably lost in the haze of cigarette smoke. But now, as people smoke less, scientists are realizing that the campfire might have been almost as dangerous (and we won’t even mention the carbonized hot dogs).Damian Carrington of the Guardian does a particularly dramatic review of this study, showing how it affects our lungs, heart, and brain, because the particles are so small that they get into our bloodstream and even the nervous system:“Animal studies have shown they can even travel right up the olfactory nerve into the brain.” An emerging area of research also suggests air pollution can affect how genes function, he [Prof Dean Schraufnagel] added.They can cause stroke and dementia; they reduce fertility and increase miscarriages. Of particular interest to the Republicans running the USA might be “the unborn are also in the mix. A recent study finding pollutants in the placentas that nourish foetuses. Air pollution is also strongly linked to low birthweights for babies, which has lifelong consequences.”You wouldn’t know this in the USA, where the EPA actually disbanded the Particulate Matter Review Panel that was going to determine what a safe level of particulates actually is. They don’t want to know, or don’t believe it. According to NPR, the head of the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee, appointed by the current government, “said they do not agree that breathing air polluted with soot can lead to an early death.”“[Committee] members have varying opinions on the adequacy of the evidence supporting the EPA’s conclusion that there is a causal relationship between [particulate matter] exposure and mortality,” said Cox.There are many reasons why the American government [during the Trump administration] would not want to get worked up about PM2.5; the main sources are power generation, home heating, cars and trucks, and forest fires, which are also the main sources greenhouse gases. America is not in the business of reducing power generation from coal or the sale of gas-guzzling cars and trucks. And many Americans don’t take the climate crisis seriously. But they do care about their health.

Polio epidemic declared in Gaza in latest sign of worsening health crisis | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera - Gaza’s health ministry has declared a polio epidemic across the Palestinian enclave, blaming Israel’s devastating military offensive for the spread of the deadly virus. In a statement on Telegram, the ministry on Monday said the situation “poses a health threat to the residents of Gaza and neighbouring countries” – the latest sign of a worsening public health emergency caused by Israel’s genocidal war since October. Calling the epidemic a “setback” to the global polio eradication programme, the ministry called for an “immediate intervention to end the [Israeli] aggression and find radical solutions” to lack of potable water and personal hygiene, damaged sewage networks and removal of tonnes of rubbish and solid waste. Poliomyelitis, which is spread mainly through the fecal-oral route, is a highly infectious virus that can invade the nervous system and cause paralysis. Cases of polio have declined by 99 percent worldwide since 1988, thanks to mass vaccination campaigns, and efforts continue to eradicate it everywhere.Earlier this month, Gaza’s health ministry said it had detected “component poliovirus type 2” in coordination with the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). The virus was found in sewage “that collects and flows between the tents of the displaced,” said the ministry.Already scarce supplies of drinking water in the densely-populated Gaza Strip are at risk of being contaminated by the virus.On Friday, the World Health Organization (WHO) said it was sending more than one million polio vaccines to Gaza to be administered over the coming weeks to prevent children from being infected after the virus was detected in sewage samples.Israel’s military, which said it has evidence of the “component polio virus type 2”, said it would start offering the polio vaccine to soldiers in Gaza.Israel’s war in Gaza has damaged and destroyed sewage and water systems, and sewage has spilled into the streets near some camps for the displaced Palestinians.Last week, the UN reported that besides the detection of the polio virus, there has been a widespread increase in cases of Hepatitis A, dysentery and gastroenteritis as sanitary conditions deteriorate in Gaza. “This is only the start of the wave of diseases the Gaza Strip is going to face,” said Al Jazeera’s Hind Khoudary, reporting from Deir-al Balah in central Gaza. “Palestinians have been living in makeshift tents without any bathrooms, without any hygiene, without access to water, sanitation. Sewage is everywhere,” she said.Dr Tanya Haj-Hassan, a paediatric intensive care physician, told Al Jazeera in an interview earlier this month that the presence of the polio virus in sewage was a “ticking time bomb”. “Normally if you have a case of polio, you’re going to isolate them, you’re going to make sure that they use a bathroom that nobody else uses, make sure that they’re not in close proximity to other people, [but] that’s impossible,” she said. “You have everybody clustering in refugee camps at the moment without vaccines for at least the past nine months, including children who would otherwise have been vaccinated for polio and adults who, in the setting of an outbreak, should receive a booster, including healthcare workers.”

More illnesses reported in multistate Listeria outbreak linked to deli meats - Six more people have been sickened in a Listeria monocytogenes outbreak linked to deli meat, with one more state reporting an illness, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a July 26 update. The new cases push the total from the outbreak, first announced on July 19, to 34 cases from 13 states. Two earlier deaths were reported.Since the outbreak was first announced, interviews with sick patients suggested some had eaten deli meat sliced or prepared at delis. Labs in Maryland have identified Listeria in an unopened package of Boar's Head liverwurst as part of the outbreak investigation, which prompted a recall of that and eight other deli meats that the company produced on the same line and the same day as the liverwurst.The CDC said whole genome sequencing is underway to determine if the strain from the liverwurst sample is the same as the one making people sick. The US Department of Agriculture is conducting a traceback investigation to identify the suppliers of the deli meats bought by people sickened in the outbreak.The latest illness onset was July 12. Of information available on 33 patients, all were hospitalized. One patient got sick during pregnancy and remained pregnant after recovery. Pregnant women, seniors, and those with weakened immune systems are especially vulnerable to listeriosis complications. Though the products were distributed to retail delis nationwide, the states reporting cases are all in roughly the eastern half of the United States, with New York the hardest hit state with 12 cases, followed by Maryland with 6. Of 24 people who were interviewed about their food exposures, 23 reported eating meats sliced at a deli. Of 23 who answered about liverwurst, 13 said they had eaten liverwurst before they became ill, and 7 reported the Boar's Head brand. "This information suggests that liverwurst is a likely source of this outbreak. CDC continues to gather information to understand which deli meats are causing illness in this outbreak," the group said.

Quick takes: More avian flu in Michigan cows, mRNA H5N1 vaccine initiative, reducing Salmonella in raw poultry | CIDRAP

The Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (MDARD) today announced another avian influenza outbreaks at a dairy farm, its first since July 9, raising the state's total to 27. The outbreak also marks the first from Van Buren County, putting the number of affected Michigan counties at 11. MDARD said samples will be sent to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) for confirmation. In other avian flu developments, an H5N1 outbreak has been detected in backyard poultry in Florida's Hendry County in the south central part of the state, according to the latest update from the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS).
The World Health Organization (WHO) today announced the launch of a new initiative to speed the development of and access to mRNA vaccines against H5N1 avian influenza for people in low- and middle-income countries. The project is led by Argentina-based Sinergium Biotech, which has developed candidate H5N1 vaccines, and leverages the WHO and Medicines Patent Pool mRNA technology transfer program. The company's next step is to develop a preclinical data package, which will then be shared with other manufacturing partners.
The USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) today unveiled a proposed rule to reduce Salmonellacontamination and illnesses in raw poultry, noting the plan is part of a 3-year effort to reevaluate the strategy for controlling Salmonella rate in poultry products. The proposal addresses Salmonellacontamination at poultry slaughterhouses and processors. The proposal would establish product standards that would prevent raw chicken carcasses, chicken parts, ground chicken, and ground turkey from entering commerce if they contain any Salmonella above 10 colony-forming units and any detectable level for certain serotypes of public health significance. The proposal would also require establishments to develop microbial monitoring programs. Comments on the proposal are due 60 days after Federal Register publication.

H5N1 bird flu continues to spread among US dairy cattle -- The H5N1 bird flu virus continues to spread among multiple species across the US, most notably dairy cattle. The adaptation of the virus from birds to over 40 mammalian species including humans is highly concerning. If the virus were to develop sustained, efficient human-to-human transmission, it could cause the next pandemic.A study published in Nature this week demonstrated that H5N1 was transmitted long distance between two dairy farms 280km (174 miles) apart in different US states, Texas and Kansas. There was no transportation of animals between the farms.Because the same two distinct strains of the virus were found at both farms, it suggests bi-directional transmission back and forth between the farms, although the researchers could not rule out unidirectional transmission of both strains in either direction.The findings of the study were of sufficient immediate concern that the journal took the unusual step of making an unedited version of the manuscript available immediately on its web site while the final editing and publication process is underway.The study also found that birds and other mammals in the vicinity of farms were infected with H5N1, including dead cats, raccoons and blackbirds. The analysis of viral genomes obtained from the animals demonstrated cattle-to-cat and cattle-to-raccoon transmission of the virus. According to the study, “The spillover of HPAI [highly pathogenic avian influenza] H5N1 into dairy cattle and evidence for efficient and sustained mammal-to-mammal transmission are unprecedented.”Diego Diel, co-corresponding author of the study, said: “The concern is that potential mutations could arise that could lead adaptation to … potential efficient transmission in humans in the future.” Diel is associate professor of virology and director of the Virology Laboratory at Cornell University.According to the latest update this week from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), H5N1 has officially infected cattle at a total of 171 farms in 13 states. In the past 30 days, there have been 39 cattle infected in six states. Colorado continues to be at the epicenter of the epidemic with 28 of those infected cattle.In addition to dairy cattle, a cluster of human cases associated with poultry farms is ongoing in Colorado. The cluster began as five cases in poultry workers who had been slaughtering chickens in order to prevent further spread of the virus. A sixth case was reported shortly thereafter.Late last week the Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment (CDPHE) announced three additional cases from a second poultry operation in the same county, bringing the total to nine human infections from the two poultry operations. Combined with one human case at a dairy farm in Colorado, the total number of cases of human H5N1 in the state is 10. The CDPHE published a data table on these cases, which it says it will update every Tuesday and Thursday. The table currently displays 10 confirmed human cases, zero presumptive cases, and approximately 134 individuals tested. These alarming developments resulted in Colorado becoming the first state to mandate weekly testing of milk samples for H5N1 at all dairy farms in the state. Otherwise, testing is only mandatory at the federal level for interstate shipment of dairy cattle (and even then, farms are only required to test dairy cattle that are currently producing milk). At present, the virus is transmitted through direct contact with fluids or tissues of infected animals or with items contaminated with them. The long-range transmission between farms cited in the recent study could have occurred via shared farm equipment, vehicles, or personnel that were contaminated. No study has yet documented aerosol transmission of H5N1 in mammals, although it cannot be ruled out entirely at present.

HPAI H5N1 virus could pose significant threat to Georgia's poultry farms, warns expert --The recent outbreak of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI H5N1) virus has raised concerns among poultry producers and food safety experts. The virus is highly contagious among birds and poses a significant risk despite stringent biosecurity measures, according to Georgia Tech food safety and agriculture expert Wendy White."In states that are a major poultry producer, like Georgia, backyard flocks are also extremely common, and we've seen outbreaks spread from the home to larger commercial flocks in this manner," said White.She emphasized that while the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has categorized the risk of HPAI H5N1 to the human population as low, it remains crucial for poultry farms to implement critical biosecurity practices. These include restricting access of flocks to wild birds by confining them to chicken houses and covered coops, limiting visitors, and implementing strict hygiene protocols for employees and equipment."American poultry farms have already implemented several of the CDC-recommended biosecurity measures to stop and prevent the spread of aviation influenza," White said. "Visiting commercial chicken houses is often more involved than visiting someone in the ICU. Visitors and employees are required to don personal protective equipment, such as boots and jumpsuits, that are dedicated to that farm."Regarding Georgia's preparedness to handle a significant H5N1 outbreak, White expressed confidence but acknowledged the need for ongoing vigilance and improvements."Georgia is among the top five chicken producers in the country and home to a diverse population of wild birds, so there is a significant risk that sporadic cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza could spread and cause a major outbreak," White stated."Federal and state agencies, and Georgia poultry producers are working closely together to identify any cases and take swift action to stop the spread of any aviation influenza."With such collaborative efforts, White added, Georgia aims to maintain rigorous measures to protect its poultry industry and ensure public safety.Advancements in food processing and handling also play a vital role in mitigating the risks of HPAI H5N1 contamination in the poultry supply chain."The USDA has stated that poultry, eggs, and other foods that are properly prepared and cooked are safe to eat," White noted. "Laboratory studies have shown that normal cooking practices for meat and eggs, and pasteurization fordairy products, are sufficient to kill this virus."Surveillance is also key in managing HPAI H5N1 outbreaks. USDA inspectors carefully monitor animal health on farms and regularly test food products to ensure a safe food supply."Advancements in testing have enabled food companies to run more tests, andwhole genome sequencing allows epidemiologists to link animal and human cases to control outbreaks quicker," White explained.White also added that regulatory policies and guidelines are essential for controlling the spread of HPAI H5N1 in the poultry industry. Both the USDA and poultry companies conduct vigilant inspections and testing to quickly identify and mitigate sources of the virus.Few cases among humans have been reported elsewhere, underscoring the importance of ongoing vigilance.

CDC urges livestock workers get seasonal flu vaccine to cut pandemic risk -A top official with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today announced a $5 million plan to offer seasonal flu vaccine to livestock workers, mostly to protect their health but also to reduce the chance of human flu viruses mixing with H5N1 avian flu viruses, which would pose a new pandemic flu threat.The announcement follows a recent flurry of H5 avian flu infections in Colorado poultry cullers and sporadic infections in workers exposed to dairy cows infected with H5N1 and comes ahead of the upcoming flu season. At a Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) briefing today, Nirav Shah, MD, JD, principal deputy director for the CDC, said more human H5N1 cases are expected, but, so far, the risk remains low, except to workers exposed to sick animals.He detailed two parts of the program, one to partner with the National Center for Farmworker Health to ramp up training, as well as access to testing, personal protective equipment, and flu shots. The other is $5 million to provide states with seasonal flu vaccine targeted to farm workers. Health officials estimate that the United States has at least 200,000 livestock workers, with many other people working with animals more informally. Though Shah said seasonal flu shots won't protect against H5N1, they could protect workers against coinfection with seasonal flu and reduce the chance of virus reassortment, which in theory could produce a new virus that would pose significant public health concerns. Shah acknowledged that the main role of flu shots is reducing severe disease and death, but he added that, while they don’t eliminate infection, they can reduce the risk. Though discussions are still under way on use of H5N1 vaccines, he said they aren't recommended yet because there is no person-to-person spread, no changes in the virus, and no evidence of asymptomatic spread. "For now, the seasonal flu shot is the right tool for the job," Shah said.States will craft their own vaccine plans for livestock workers, and the initial efforts will focus on hard-hit states such as Colorado and Michigan. States have already floated some idea, such as working with local health departments or offering the vaccine at gatherings frequented by livestock workers.Eric Deeble, DVM, acting senior adviser for highly pathogenic avian flu at the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), said depopulation activities have been completed at two large layer farms in Weld County, Colordao. He said epidemiologic investigations are still under way into how the B3.13 genotype infecting cattle turned up on the poultry farms, but he noted that the agricultural situation is unique in Weld County. Most of the state's 105 dairy farms are concentrated in the county, and some of the poultry farms and dairy facilities are just a mile or two from each other.

Previously undetected H5N1 avian flu cases in farmworkers revealed in new report -- A team of US researchers has revealed evidence of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu infections in two Texas farmworkers not previously confirmed to have the disease, and the investigators also cultured infectious H5N1 virus from milk and cattle samples taken from two Texas dairy farms that previously had H5N1 outbreaks. The research, led by scientists with the University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB) at Galveston, was published yesterday on the preprint server medRxiv, meaning that it has not yet been peer-reviewed. It comes as the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed two more dairy farms affected by H5N1 in cows, as well as newly infected mammalian species. "Knowing that we had a research proposal to study livestock farms for evidence of novel respiratory viruses," the authors wrote, "we were invited by farm owners to study two dairy farms in Texas as they were recovering from incursions of avian influenza A H5N1 virus in their cattle. The identity and locations of two dairy farms (Farm A and B) are protected through nondisclosure agreements." The investigators visited Farm A on April 3 and Farm B on April 4. They had previously studied specimens from Farm A, but this was their first visit to the other farm. Farm A housed 7,200 dairy cows and employed 180 workers. Farm B had 8,200 dairy cattle as well as beef cattle, but the two types were housed separately. It employed 45 farmworkers.In the 30 days before the researchers visited the farms, both locales reported sick cattle showing signs of respiratory disease, including coughing, nasal discharge, difficulty breathing, and fever. About 5% of the Farm A herd was sick, compared with 14% on Farm B. Farm B also reported that 15 to 20 of roughly 40 feral cats on the property had died after they exhibited influenza-like symptoms. The research team enrolled 17 adult farm workers in the study, 10 from Farm A and 7 from Farm B. Twelve were men and 15 were Latino. All agreed to nasopharyngeal swab collection, but 3 workers on Farm B declined blood draws for sera specimens.All 17 nasopharyngeal swabs collected from the farm workers were negative by molecular assays for influenza A viruses and coronaviruses. Microneutralization assays conducted on the 14 farm workers' sera samples demonstrated that 2 workers, both from Farm A, had antibodies to influenza A H5N1 virus, indicating a previous infection.These workers, both of whom had recent respiratory symptoms, are not included in the US total of 13 human cases of H5 avian flu confirmed since April. Four of these infections are associated with exposure to sick dairy cows, and 9 are tied to H5N1-infected poultry.One of the two Farm A workers who tested positive for H5N1 antibodies reported no respiratory illness in the previous year but had a cough and was taking cough medicine at the time of the study. The second employee worked in the Farm A cafeteria and had just recovered from a respiratory illness. "I am very confident there are more people being infected than we know about," senior author Gregory Gray, MD, MPH, told NPR. "Largely, that's because our surveillance has been so poor."

Experts consider H5N1 avian flu unknowns as state fairs loom -In the next 6 to 10 weeks, hundreds of state and country fairs will take place across the United States, and thousands of Americans will attend agricultural shows, walk through barns, watch dairy cattle be milked, and even observe an animal giving birth.But veterinarians, public health researchers, and scientists are unclear to what extent—if any—the recent explosion in cases of H5N1 avian influenza in dairy cattle will affect animals on exhibition or pose a threat to human health. H5N1 is deadly to poultry, but causes mild to moderate symptoms in the bovine population. So far, humans who have been infected with H5N1 via contact with infected cows have also exhibited mild illness, but case numbers in humans remain low.For decades, Andrew Bowman, DVM, PhD, from the Ohio State University, the swine-human interface has been at top of mind at county, regional, and state fairs in the United States.“What we do at fairs kind of violates every tenet of biosecurity that we preach, and we do it on public display, and we charge the public,” Bowman told CIDRAP News. “As great as fairs are for agricultural education, they create situations with multiple species from different farms housed in one spot.” Bowman likens state and county fairs to the Southeastern Asian live-animal markets, so often seen as epicenters for zoonotic spillover events.“We act like that sort of thing doesn’t happen in the US,” said Bowman. “But it does happen on a different scale, and every county across the Midwest does the same thing.” Bowman said that while every year poses variant flu risks linked to swine, something the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention monitors, this year will be challenging because H5N1 has now been implicated in 172 outbreaks in 13 states, with more than a dozen human cases in agricultural workers. All human cases have been mild, with case-patients recovering fully. Each state fair and fairgrounds has its own challenges, Lowe explained. In Illinois, beef and dairy cattle are shown days apart, and the layout of the barns has dairy cattle fairly separate from other species. But milking banks and stages, where multiple cows use the same milking equipment, are common in fairs. If transmission happens, it’s likely going to be there.Last week, the University of Minnesota Extension service released guidance on cow exhibits, which recommends that people keep lactating cows away from public events such as fairs. Because raw milk is known to have the highest concentration of H5N1 virus, the Extension program is recommending that lactating cows not attend fairs.“Milking is often done in a shared parlor and may involve shared equipment, which is an efficient way to spread H5 influenza. Although closing the parlor seems like a logical control step, that strategy will simply spread the virus source since the lactating cow must still be milked, which is now likely to be done in the cow’s stall, and the milk must still be stored and marketed or discarded,” the Extension said.The Minnesota State Fair has already announced that its late-August event will exclude cows and calves from the popular Miracle of Birth Center, where visitors watch animals being born, and will limit lactating cows based on the recommendations from the Extension program.

Quick takes: H5N1 in US dairy cattle, human H5N1 case in Cambodia, polio in 4 countries | CIDRAP

The US Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Inspection Service has confirmed three more H5N1 avian flu outbreaks in dairy cattle, bringing the national total of infected herds to 178 in 13 states. The new positive samples are from a herd in Colorado, which has now confirmed 25 outbreaks over the last 30 days, and two herds in South Dakota.
Cambodia's Ministry of Health yesterday reported the country's eighth human case of H5N1 of 2024, according to Avian Flu Diary. The case is in a 4-year-old boy from Svay Rieng Province who had touched dead chickens about 12 days before the onset of his illness. The boy is currently hospitalized. It’s the 14^thhuman H5n1 case reported in Cambodia over the last 18 months. All of the cases reported in the country have belonged to the 2.3.2.1c clade of H5N1.
Four countries this week reported cases of vaccine-derived polio, according to the latest update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. Nigeria reported six cases of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) in Kano Province, raising the country's 2024 total to 37 cases. Chad, Guinea, and Yemen each reported one cVDPV2 cases, bringing their 2024 totals to 6, 5, and 33 cases, respectively.

Cow challenge study should help turn tables on H5N1 in dairy herds -Animal challenge studies completed by U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) scientists show that infecting dairy cows with the H5N1 virus in a laboratory setting can trigger clinical signs of disease similar to those of naturally infected animals on dairy farms.Understanding how the virus is infecting cows and how the disease progresses in the animals is essential to developing therapeutics, like vaccines. While the study size was limited, the scientists' validation of a reliable challenge model offers an important step towards filling crucial knowledge gaps that remain, including on ways to prevent the spread of H5N1. USDA continues to stand up additional studies with more animals and additional endpoints.Popularly known as "bird flu" and scientifically as "Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in the hemagglutinin clade 2.3.4.4b," the virus associated with the dairy cow outbreak was first detected in a Texas dairy cow on March 25, 2024. Since then, there have been 172 confirmed cases of infected dairy milking cows in 13 states. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has assessed that the current human-health risk for the U.S. general public remains low, with four cases of H5N1 reported in people (exposed to infected dairy cows) so far.The USDA scientists' animal challenge study showing that field infections of H5N1 can be replicated under laboratory conditions is detailed in a paper that will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.The authors, who comprise a multi-disciplinary team of scientists with the USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS), USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) and Iowa State University, conducted the study in a Biosafety Level-3 (BSL-3) agricultural facility in Ames, Iowa, about a month after H5N1 was detected in the Texas dairy cow. This effort built on prior genomic investigations indicating genotype B3.13 of the virus had originated in wild birds the fall of 2023, and that a single "spillover" event into dairy cows likely occurred in late winter 2023."At the time we initiated these experiments, the route of infection and transmission between cows was unknown," ARS study leader Amy Baker and her co-authors write in their publication-pending research paper. "Transmission between farms was linked to movement of live lactating cows, yet within-farm spread to resident cows was observed within days or weeks following movement without a clear pattern of transmission consistent on all farms."The BSL-3 facility, which is operated by the ARS National Animal Disease Center in Ames, enabled the team to evaluate two infection routes in a high-containment setting. The first route, a respiratory one, involved exposing the noses and mouths of four yearling heifers to an aerosol mist containing genotype B3.13 of the virus. The second infection route, an intramammary one, involved inoculating the teats and udders of two, non-pregnant lactating cows so that the progress of the disease and its symptoms could be monitored.In the first study, the respiratory exposed heifers became infected but showed minimal clinical signs of disease, limited to an increased but sporadic nasal discharge 1 to 3 days after infection. Lesions were observed in one heifer 7 days after infection.In the second study, the mammary exposed lactating cows became infected and displayed symptoms within 48 hours of infection. These included diminished appetite, decreased rumen motility, a drop in milk production and thick, yellowish milk—similar to clinical viral mastitis symptoms observed in naturally infected animals on dairy farms. Both cows developed H5 specific immunity in serum and milk from inoculated quarters, Baker notes.This study, as well as other unpublished data, support the conclusion that respiratory transmission is not a primary route of infection within farms. Additional studies are in progress. Specific knowledge gaps that reliable, repeatable animal challenge methods can help answer are:

Tropisms of the virus within the body over time.
How the virus is transmitted between animals.
Whether HPAI vaccines will work in dairy cattle.
Best practices for disinfection (for example, milking machines).

Blowflies found to carry bird flu virus -Researchers from Kyushu University have discovered that blowflies, a family of flies strongly attracted to decaying flesh and feces, are carrying the bird flu virus in southern Japan. Their findings, published in Scientific Reports, introduce a potential new route of transmission for bird flu and highlight the need to develop new countermeasures to prevent and control the disease in poultry farms. Since 2020, bird flu has been spreading rapidly around the globe, leading to the death of millions of wild birds and the culling of more than half a billion farmed birds worldwide. In Japan, where a single case of infection on a poultry farm mandates the culling of the entire stock, the 2022–2023 winter season saw a record-high of 326 outbreaks of bird flu, resulting in the sacrifice of 17.7 million birds. Some strains of bird flu have also jumped to mammals, including cows, goats, dogs, cats, and since March, an uptick of cases in poultry and dairy workers, with a high fatality rate, has raised significant concern. "Bird flu has been causing substantial damage to wildlife and the poultry industry, and also holds great risk for humans who work closely with livestock. It's therefore vital to understand how the virus spreads and its potential routes of transmission to control and prevent outbreaks," explains first author Associate Professor Ryosuke Fujita of Kyushu University's Faculty of Agriculture. In this research, the scientists studied a wild crane colony in Izumi city, Kagoshima Prefecture, in southern Japan. In winter, the prime season for bird flu, thousands of cranes migrate to this area, with their dense numbers making them vulnerable to infection. During winter 2022–2023, 1,600 cranes out of a colony of 10,000 cranes died from bird flu. "We were notified about the cranes being infected and we had to act quickly," says Fujita. Along with his colleagues, he set traps at different locations around Izumi city to collect blowflies. "We were particularly interested in one species of blowfly, Calliphora nigribarbis, as, unlike other fly species, they are active in winter, coinciding with the peak season of bird flu. This, along with their attraction to the flesh and feces of animals, makes them a prime suspect for spreading the virus," adds Fujita. The researchers collected 648 blowflies and discovered that 14 blowflies were carrying the bird flu virus. The majority of virus-positive blowflies were collected from the sample site closest to the crane colony. "While 14 blowflies may seem like a low number, this represents a prevalence in blowflies of 2.2%, which is a huge percentage compared to other diseases spread by insects," explains Fujita. The research team also used genetic testing to confirm that the blowflies were carrying the same virus strain that has been infecting the crane colony. Unlike birds and mammals which the virus infects and replicates inside, blowflies instead ingest the virus from infected dead birds or their waste, with the virus maintaining infectivity for up to two days. Blowflies are capable of flying at least 2 kms per day, so the researchers estimate that it is feasible for them to reach nearby poultry farms or other wild bird populations within a 4 km range. The researchers believe that as the blowfly moves from place to place, it could contaminate surfaces, food sources and water sources, with healthy birds becoming infected through direct contact with these contaminated sources, or by ingesting adult or larval blowflies.

Washington state confirms first CWD case --Chronic wasting disease (CWD) was confirmed yesterday in an adult female white-tailed deer found dead in Spokane, Washington. It's the state's first case of CWD.Washington Department of Fish & Wildlife (WDFW) said the confirmation was made by the Washington Animal Disease Laboratory at Washington State University, which tested lymph nodes from the deer submitted in July with a batch of other samples for testing. WDFW said it's still working on details of the case and will hold a press briefing next week to provide more information.Washington is now the 35^th state with documented CWD in wild or captive cervids. It's also been found in four Canadian provinces.CWD is a neurologic disease caused by misfolded proteins called prions and is fatal in infected deer. It poses an ongoing threat to cervids such as deer, elk, moose, and reindeer because it can spread from animal-to-animal and through environmental contamination. The disease isn't known to infect humans, but officials recommend not eating meat from a sick animal and using precautions when field-dressing or butchering cervids.WDFW said it's been testing for CWD since 1995 and has increased those efforts in eastern Washington since 2021 due to proximity to known cases in western Montana. "With the spread of CWD across the country and recent detections in adjacent states and provinces, WDFW has proactively conducted surveillance in this area since 2021," Eric Gardner, WDFW’s Wildlife Program Director, said in a press release. "We detected this case because of the surveillance program, and we are immediately reviewing our Management Plan and the circumstances of this detection."

Study shows liquid insecticides have limited impact against subterranean termite colonies --How do some of the most voracious subterranean termite species live and remain active around a house? They have a knack for "smelling death." In the United States, there are two primary ways to protect a house from subterranean termites: non-repellent liquid termiticides or baits. A groundbreaking study from the University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences (UF/IFAS) reveals the limitations of some liquid insecticides in eliminating subterranean termite colonies.Scientists at the UF/IFAS Fort Lauderdale Research and Education Center (FLREC) studied the efficacy of non-repellent termiticides, which have been used for more than 20 years. The study, published in the Journal of Economic Entomology, raises concerns about the continued use of liquid control methods.They show a limitation on the efficacy levels for controlling colonies of subterranean termite species that are prevalent in the southern United States."While liquid termiticide treatments can provide levels of protection against subterranean termite populations, and effectively prevent damage to structures, the colonies in the ground surrounding the structure are not really impacted much, postponing the potential damage they can create in time," In the study, Chouvenc showed subterranean termites foraging over long distances in soil treated with a commonly used non-repellent termiticide would rapidly die near the treatment, leading to an accumulation of dead termites. "Such an area of dead termites, referred to as the 'death zone,' creates a situation where the rest of the colony avoids it due to the smell of death," Chouvenc said.The study demonstrated that the "death zone" spreads up to 2.56 meters or up to 8 feet, 4 inches from the treatment area, preventing overall termite activity within that zone over time. Meanwhile, the study showed that as little as 1.5% of the termite colony population was impacted by the treatment, allowing the termite population to maintain their long-term potential for damage within the area. "Effectively, while such liquid termiticides are technically non-repellent to subterranean termite foragers in their formulation, they become functionally repellent in their application, as a result of the early mortality onset of foragers around the treated area," said Chouvenc. Subterranean termites can forage for several hundred feet underground and can avoid areas that are detrimental to them, said Chouvenc. With millions of individuals, colonies can complete their life cycle and continue to produce future generations of termite colonies within the affected communities.

Research shows that brown treesnakes frequently kill prey too large to swallow - Brown treesnakes are not indigenous to Guam. The species arrived shortly after World War II, perhaps aboard shipping vessels. Since then, they have caused the local or total extinction of most native forest bird species. Researchers including Haldre Rogers, a tropical forest community ecologist and conservation biologist in the College of Natural Resources and Environment have spent years conducting studies to support and inform bird conservation efforts. Since 2007, Rogers has operated the Ecology of Bird Loss project in Guam to better understand how losing birds impacts the ecosystem and to form strategies to restore birds to the ecosystem. It has previously been suggested that while total eradication is optimal, removing the large, mature snakes—the ones big enough to eat birds—might be sufficient to allow some bird populations to recover. Research, published on July 25 in Ecology and Evolution, shows that snakes are killing birds whether they can eat them or not, suggesting that they are routinely tackling prey that are too large for them to swallow. "Around half of the birds that are getting killed by snakes are not actually eaten by them," said Martin Kastner, a doctoral student in the Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation. Kastner has spent the last three years with a team in the Mariana Islands conducting the first study into the influence of both prey and predator sizes on brown treesnake predation success. "Before this work, no one realized the extent to which snakes are unsuccessfully trying to predate birds," said Rogers. "I think we just assumed that most of the time they would be good at estimating how large a prey they would need, so it came as a big surprise to us that almost exactly half of the birds were not actually consumed."The team attached radio transmitters to roughly 400 Såli fledglings, a medium-sized bird in the starling family that is locally endangered on Guam because of brown treesnake predation.The fledglings that were unsuccessfully ingested by the brown treesnake were found dead on the ground with their heads and necks coated in saliva, whereas the fledglings that were successfully ingested were tracked to the bellies or feces of snakes.The snake population at the site was also surveyed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Brown Treesnake Lab with measurements taken of all snakes found, allowing the team to compare the size of snakes that successfully ate birds to those on the landscape.The study began in November 2019 and concluded in October of 2022:

The team recorded 294 fledgling bird deaths out of 461 tracked.
Brown treesnakes killed 58% of those, and cats killed 30%.
Approximately half of the birds killed by the brown tree snakes were covered in saliva but not ingested.

Kastner was the lead writer of a paper on these findings titled, "Gape-limited invasive predator frequently kills avian prey that are too large to swallow." In the right context, snakes are a big part of the ecosystem. They're wonderful in the right place, but in Guam, unfortunately, they're invasive, so that's important to keep in mind," said Kastner. "We need to get rid of them if we want hope of bringing back native birds and restoring the overall ecosystem."

Climate is most important factor in where mammals choose to live, study finds - While human activity has had a massive effect on the natural world, a new study from North Carolina State University finds that climate is still the most influential factor in determining where mammals can thrive. The work sheds light on how climate change will affect wildlife populations.Roland Kays, lead author of a paper on the work, said the study's goal was to compare the importance of climate versus human factors in where mammals choose to live. To do so, researchers collected data on 25 mammal species from 6,645 locations across the United States. The study is one of the largest camera trap data analyses ever done. The data came largely from Snapshot U.S., which is a national mammal camera trap survey conducted with collaborators across the country."One of our ideas was that humans may have changed our landscape so much that we have become the primary determinants of which animals live where," "What we found was that in fact humans were not the most important. Climate, including temperature and the amount of rainfall, was the most important factor across most of the species we observed."However, human activity in the form of large population centers and agriculture was still a significant factor in where mammals chose to live. Some species struggled in the presence of cities and farms, Kays said, but many thrived."There are a lot of species that do well when humans are around. The Eastern gray squirrel for instance is the most common squirrel in Raleigh, and it does great around people. But there's another species called the Eastern fox squirrel, and that one does well around agriculture but not as well around people," he said."We can see those differences in many other species. The snowshoe hare does poorly around both people and around agriculture. This study allows us to see the species that are sensitive to our impacts, and which ones benefit."This information helped researchers create maps which predict how common various mammals are across the contiguous U.S., which allowed them to separate the country into regions based on what kinds of mammals were common in each. These regions, known as ecoregions, are commonly used when studying plants but have never before been applied to mammal populations."When you look at something like the Eastern deciduous forest, that is an ecoregion classified by how common a type of tree is," Kays said. "We're now able to do that with mammal species and then compare that to the plant ecoregions. What we found was a striking similarity between the two. For instance, in the east where there is more rainfall, you have more plants growing. That lined up with a greater abundance of mammals that we saw in that region as well, because more plants mean more food for those animals to eat." The open access paper, "Climate, food and humans predict communities of mammals in the United States" is available to read in Diversity and Distributions. Rising global temperatures will cause shifts in where animals are able to live, as well as influence precipitation levels and plant growth. Understanding these factors will be important to making sustainable decisions about mammal population management in the future.

Hazardous heat indices expected to exceed 43.3 °C (110 °F) from Plains to Southeast, dangerous heat building in the West - The National Weather Service has forecasted hazardous heat spreading from the Plains through the Mississippi Valley to the Southeast starting this week and continuing into the next. High temperatures combined with high humidity are expected to produce dangerously high heat indices, potentially exceeding 43.3 °C (110 °F). The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts the spread of hazardous heat from the Plains through the Mississippi Valley to the Southeast this week, continuing into next week. The high temperatures, exceeding 38 °C (100 °F), paired with high humidity will result in dangerously high heat indices that could exceed 43.3 °C (110 °F) at times across the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast. The hazardous heat will spread through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley from the central and southern Plains by midweek and expand into the Southeast and mid-Atlantic late this week. The NWS forecasts multiple days of extreme heat risk from the Plains to the Southeast. In addition, intense and widespread heat will build across the western USA late this week due to an upper-level high-pressure system and is likely to persist into the coming week. High temperatures are expected to be 5.6 – 8.3 °C (10 – 15 °F) higher than normal across the Northwest and northern High Plains by August 2, with the forecast of several daily record high temperatures. The risk for heat-related illnesses will be high due to the prolonged nature of the excessive heat, which will expand across the West over the weekend and is likely to persist into next week. The hot and dry conditions will maintain fire weather concerns, causing a looming threat of wildfires, particularly with the winds associated with the high-pressure center that will set up over the Intermountain West on August 2.

US weather: Wildfires rage across America as officials issue warning to ‘stay indoors’ ---Choking smoke clouds pumped into the air by wildfires blazing across the US have sparked warnings to ‘stay indoors’. ‘Suffering’ temperatures show no signs of abating as raging infernos continue their advance across western states. A high-pressure heat dome will drive temperatures into the 110Fs while ‘keeping a lid’ on spewing pollution. Government weather authorities have warned people in affected regions not to leave their homes until the air clears. A spokesman for the US National Weather Service (NOAA) said: “Smoke from wildfires will continue to plague parts of the West, including Northern California eastward and north-eastward and into Montana, resulting in poor air quality and areas of reduced visibility. “Affected residents are urged to stay indoors, if possible, with windows and doors closed.” NOAA has issued fresh wildfire warnings across Utah, Colorado, Wyoming and central California. Heatwave conditions are forecast through the start of this week with dry winds and rainless skies fuelling the blaze. Searing temperatures have spread since early summer under a stubborn area of high pressure smothering the United States.

Crews battle wildfires across the US West and fight to hold containment lines — Wildfires across the western United States and Canada put millions of people under air quality alerts on Sunday as thousands of firefighters battled the flames, including the largest wildfire in California this year. The so-called Park Fire had scorched more than 550 square miles (1,430 square kilometers) of inland Northern California as of Sunday morning, darkening the sky with smoke and haze and contributing to poor air quality in a large swath of the Northwestern U.S. and western Canada. Although the sprawling blaze was only 12% contained, cooler temperatures and increased humidity could help crews battle the fire, which has drawn comparisons to the 2018 Camp Fire that tore through the nearby community of Paradise, killing 85 people and torching 11,000 homes. Paradise and several other Butte County communities were under an evacuation warning Sunday. However, Cal Fire operations section chief Jeremy Pierce had some good news for the area, saying around midday that the Park Fire's southernmost front, which is closest to Paradise, was “looking really good,” with crews focusing on mopping up the area over the next three days. He also said they don't expect it to move farther into Chico, a city of about 100,000 people just west of Paradise. First responders initially focused on saving lives and property endangered by the Park Fire, but that has shifted to confronting the blaze head-on, Jay Tracy, a spokesperson at the Park Fire headquarters, told The Associated Press by phone Sunday. About 3,400 firefighters are battling the blaze, aided by numerous helicopters and air tankers, and Tracy said reinforcements would give much-needed rest to local firefighters, some of whom have been working nonstop since the fire started Wednesday. “This fire is surprising a lot of people with its explosive growth,” he said. “It is kind of unparalleled.” Although the area expects cooler-than-average temperatures through the middle of this week, that doesn't mean "that fires that are existing will go away,” said Marc Chenard, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland. The fire has destroyed at least 66 structures and damaged five others, Tracy said. Authorities initially believed 134 structures had been lost, based on drone footage, but they lowered the number after teams assessed the damage in-person. “Unfortunately, that number will probably go up," Tracy said. "Each day that number has potential to grow — our teams obviously don’t do damage inspections when there is active fire in an area.” The Park Fire started Wednesday, when authorities say a man pushed a burning car into a gully in Chico and then fled. A Chico man accused of setting the fire was arrested Thursday and is due in court Monday. The northern half of the fire still posed a challenge on Sunday, Pierce said, with crews using bulldozers and other equipment to build fire lines across rocky, difficult terrain and to try to stop the flames from spreading. The Park Fire was one of more than 100 blazes burning in the U.S. on Sunday, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. Some were sparked by the weather, with climate change increasing the frequency of lightning strikes as the Western U.S. endures blistering heat and bone-dry conditions. Despite the improved fire weather in Northern California, conditions remained ripe for even more blazes to ignite, with the National Weather Service warning of “red flag” conditions on Sunday across wide swaths of Utah, Colorado and Wyoming, in addition to parts of California. In Southern California, a fire in the Sequoia National Forest swept through the community of Havilah after burning more than 48 square miles (124 square kilometers) in less than three days. The town of roughly 250 people had been under an evacuation order.

Paradise, Calif., decimated by 2018 wildfire, under new evacuation warning --Paradise, Calif., decimated by a 2018 wildfire, is once again facing the threat of an active blaze, as the Park fire takes hold in northern California. Paradise was one of several communities in Butte County, Calif., under a wildfire-related evacuation warning this weekend. The intense, sprawling nature of the wildfire has invoked references to the 2018 Camp fire, which killed 85 people and set 11,000 homes ablaze in nearby Paradise. The Park fire exploded in size after starting Wednesday. It has now scorched more than 550 square miles — an area larger than Los Angeles. By Sunday afternoon, the fire was 12 percent contained. A spokesperson at the Park fire headquarters, Jay Tracy, told The Associated Press (AP) that first responders were focused on confronting the fire head-on, rather than prioritizing saving lives and property. Tracy told the AP that about 3,400 firefighters and numerous helicopters and air tankers were working on putting out the fire Sunday. “This fire is surprising a lot of people with its explosive growth,” Tracy said. “It is kind of unparalleled.” The fire continued to grow to the west on Sunday, but Cal Fire operations section Chief Jeremy Pierce said that the southernmost part of the Park fire — the part closest to Paradise — was “looking really good,” the AP reported. At least 66 structures have been destroyed by the Park fire and five others have been damaged, Tracy told the AP. “Unfortunately, that number will probably go up,” Tracy said. “Each day that number has potential to grow — our teams obviously don’t do damage inspections when there is active fire in an area.” The Park Fire in northern California was one of more than 100 wildfires in the United States burning on Sunday, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

Park Fire grows into California’s fifth-largest fire on record, leaves a trail of destruction - The Park Fire in California grew to the state’s 5th largest wildfire on record on July 30, 2024, and wreaked havoc across four counties, destroying 277 structures and displacing over 4 000 residents. With only 18% containment, the blaze continues to threaten thousands of homes, prompting a state of emergency declaration. The Park Fire started on July 24 and grew into the fifth largest in California’s history by July 30, covering 156 470 ha (386 764 acres), according to the latest reports. The fire, believed to have been caused by arson, is affecting four counties: Butte, Plumas, Shasta, and Tehama. California Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency for areas affected in Butte and Tehama counties. Thus far, it destroyed 277 structures and damaged 29 others across Butte and Tehama counties and is 18% contained as of 21:08 LT on July 30. It is currently threatening 4 200 structures. In Butte County, the fire consumed 21 450 ha (52 999 acres) of land, destroyed 214 residential and commercial structures, and damaged another 27. In Tehama County, it consumed 135 116 ha (333 765 acres) of land, destroyed 63 structures, and damaged 2. So far, the fire has caused the closure of 26 roads, and several evacuation orders and warnings have been issued across the four counties. Over 4 000 people have been evacuated. A total of 5 779 personnel, 40 helicopters, 519 engines, 180 bulldozers, 115 water tenders, and 112 crews have been assigned, along with 77 others, to suppress the fire and conduct damage control. Smoke was heavy on July 30 across the Tehama Zone, especially in the northeast portion, while smoke was significantly less over the southern part of the fire. The weather is expected to become much warmer and drier later this week, with some winds and potential for thunderstorms. Caution is advised during this time.

California's Park Fire could burn for weeks or months - The Park Fire, which has been burning for a week in the northern region of California, is now the fifth-largest wildfire in the Golden State’s history. According to information published by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CalFire), the Park Fire has burned 386,764 acres in Butte, Plumas, Shasta and Tehama Counties and is 14 percent contained. This area is 12 times the size of San Francisco. This level of containment means that just 14 percent of the perimeter of the fire has been enclosed by a control line. In other words, most of the fire is burning out of control. On Monday, CalFire Incident Commander Billy See told a news conference, “This region, both Butte and Tehama, over the course of time in California, has had four of the largest 10 fires known in history.” As of Tuesday morning, 192 structures had been destroyed and 19 damaged with 4,200 more threatened by the fire. CalFire reported that around 5,500 fire-fighting personnel have been assigned to suppress the Park Fire. Jay Tracy, a deputy fire marshal for Fresno Fire, who is serving as the CalFire spokesman, said that the crews are fighting the fire, “aggressively, and with all hands on deck,” including firefighters from throughout California and some from Texas, Arizona and Oregon.More than 8,000 residents in the affected area are under evacuation orders. The speed and intensity of the flames, which is sending massive clouds of orange-gray smoke into the air, has “turned tree-lined roads and wooden homes into barren patches of dirt coated with ash,” according to a report in the New York Times on Monday.CNN affiliate KHSL spoke with Butte County resident Rick Pero who said the Park Fire was the second California wildfire to destroy his home. He moved to Forest Ranch after losing another property in the deadly Camp Fire in 2018. Pero and his wife were away this time when they got the evacuation warning. They told their house sitter to pack the car and leave, “We said don’t wait for the order stage, go ahead and load up.” The evacuees are compelled to either stay in temporary shelters or with friends and family. They do not know how long it will be before they can return home, assuming that their homes will be there when it is safe to go back.Experts are warning that the Park Fire could continue to spread for weeks, if not months and has the potential to become the biggest California wildfire ever. Extreme conditions made possible by capitalist-induced climate change, primarily heat waves in June and July, have produced an exceptionally dry and flammable environment that is fueling the blaze. Some areas of the burn had their single-hottest 30-day periods on record just before the Park Fire broke out. “It was an exceptional heat wave, and an exceptional drying of the vegetation.” He said another heat wave is forecast in the area this week, which would likely make it more difficult for firefighters to contain the blaze.The forecast in the region is for temperatures to hit the upper 90s Fahrenheit (32 Celsius plus) on Wednesday and, from Thursday to Monday, temperatures are expected to range between 100 and 103 degrees F (38-39C).

Record-breaking wildfires at home endanger US troops abroad - The U.S. military is being tested by the many fires it is trying to put out abroad. These crises pull assets from the country’s network of hundreds of foreign bases, more than 170,000 troops deployed internationally and mutual defense treaties with upwards of 50 countries. But amid these global missions, the military is increasingly burdened by its responsibility for extinguishing literal fires across the U.S.The U.S. armed forces have engaged in domestic wildfire suppression for over a century, but as climate change and historical forestry malpractices increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires, the military’s role in fire response has ballooned. On average, the U.S. has experienced 100 more large wildfires per year since 2015, and the risk of large fires has doubled over the last two decades. At the same time, National Guard deployments to fight wildfires expanded more than tenfold. Even more concerningly, there has been growing usage of active-duty units as firefighters. For example, hundreds of mechanized infantrymen engaged in fire suppression in California in 2021, and army engineers have been dispatched to fires in Washington and other western states over the last decade. A recent report by the Progressive Policy Institute, where one of us works in energy and environmental policy, outlines the difficulties posed by military commitments to firefighting and details potential solutions.The use of the armed forces as wildland firefighters poses an underappreciated threat to U.S. force posture. Soldiers who respond to wildfires are unavailable for training, deployments or other traditional military missions, often for extended periods. Furthermore, some of the most beneficial military units for wildfire suppression are often highly valued for their warfighting capabilities. According to Erin Sikorsky, a former member of the National Intelligence Council and director of the Center for Climate and Security, “many of those same troops are the ones that would be called upon in case of a conflict,” so “there would be a challenge there if they were being deployed at the levels they have been in recent years domestically and needed on the front lines.” Conversely, firefighters who have come to depend on military units cannot always mount an adequate response in their absence. Oregon’s ability to respond to large wildfires in 2020 was constrained by its National Guard helicopters’ deployment to Afghanistan. These examples are not evidence of firefighting ineptitude; rather, they showcase the dangers of over-reliance on the armed forces to suppress wildfires. If the U.S. simultaneously faced a major war and a severe fire season, it would lack the resources to address both tasks adequately.

Should clean air and water be the right of every Californian? Not everybody thinks so --A contentious proposal to amend California’s Constitution to enshrine environmental rights for all citizens has been delayed for at least another year after it failed to gain traction ahead of a looming deadline.ACA 16, also known as the green amendment, sought to add a line to the state Constitution’s Declaration of Rights affirming that all people “shall have a right to clean air and water and a healthy environment.”The single sentence sounds straightforward enough, but by the start of this week, the proposal had not yet made it through the state Assembly or moved into the state Senate. Both houses would need to pass the proposal by June 27 in order to get it on voter ballots this fall. Assemblymember Isaac G. Bryan (D-Los Angeles), who authored the bill, said he decided to hold it until next year so he could strengthen its language and improve its chances of success. That means it wouldn’t actually go into effect until 2026, if it passes.

California farmers willing to cut back groundwater usage when charged: Research - California farmers are willing to cut back on groundwater usage when their local governments start charging for this formerly free resource, new research has found. Historically, Golden State farmers have kept their crops irrigated amid extreme heat and drought by tapping into groundwater beneath their properties — at no charge, other than the costs of pumping. That practice has fueled concerns about the depletion of the state’s available water sources as climate change drives worse and more frequent drought. Some local agencies, seeking to address those concerns, have begun to change their operating strategies in recent years, following the passage of a significant revamp to statewide groundwater regulations, according to the authors of a new working paper, published by the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute. The widescale implementation of such shifts could lead to a reduction in acreage of the state’s thirstiest fruits and nuts by nearly a quarter, while encouraging massive transitions to less consumptive alternatives, per the paper. “Water does have value, and we learn that lesson when there is less of it to go around—but it shouldn’t get to the point where some are starved for water,” co-author Fiona Burlig, an assistant professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, said in a statement. To meet the lofty goals of California’s 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, the authors estimated that users statewide will need to reduce groundwater pumping by about 19.2 percent by 2042. Local agencies have therefore begun instituting a variety of discretionary policy mechanisms — including taxes, fees, pumping limits and conservation incentives. More than half of these agencies, the researchers found, are opting to put some type of price on groundwater. To quantify changes in both water extraction and pumping costs, the authors combined data on groundwater levels, pump efficiency and electricity consumption linked to pumping across California’s Central Valley, the state’s agricultural core. From there, they were able to model how farmers respond to changing groundwater costs over different time frames by evaluating their crop choices and water use. Ultimately, the researchers found that every 10-percent surge in groundwater pumping prices comes with a 1.4-percent reduction in land containing fruit and nut perennials, a 0.72-percent increase in land left fallow and overall groundwater pumping reductions of about 3.6 percent. “While farmers don’t change crops in response to short-lived price changes, due mostly to the nature of farming, they do start changing what they grow — and whether they grow at all— when they are charged permanent fees,” co-author Louis Preonas, an assistant professor at the University of Maryland, College Park, said in a statement. Meeting statewide targets of reducing pumping by 19.2 percent would require a groundwater pumping tax of about 60 percent — or about $30 per acre-foot of water used, according to the paper. The implementation of such a tax, the authors found, would lead to an almost 9-percent switch in cropland to less-consumptive alternatives, as well as a 24-percent plunge in fruits and nuts and a 50-percent rise in land left fallow. Evaluating these findings, Burlig stressed the importance of putting a price on groundwater and of treating “water as a commodity that should be conserved.” Through such a shift in perspective, farmers are more likely to adopt cultivation strategies that are “more suitable to the land conditions and natural resources that we all have to share — rather than using up natural resources for free to make the greatest profit,” Burlig added.

Extreme rainfall hits China’s Hunan, claiming at least 15 lives - Remnants of Typhoon “Gaemi” dropped extreme rainfall over China’s Hunan province on July 28, 2024, causing severe floods and landslides in which at least 15 people lost their lives. Gaemi made landfall in Fujian Province on July 24, with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (75 mph), forcing the evacuation of 290 000 people. Torrential rains produced by remnants of Gaemi caused a devastating landslide in Central China’s Hunan Province on July 28, claiming 15 lives and causing 6 injuries. Several people are still missing, according to a report by Xinhua. The landslide hit Yuelin village in Hengyang City at about 8:00 local time (LT), according to the provincial emergency command center, after about 300 mm (12 inches) of rain fell over the region within 24 hours. More than 20 counties and cities in Hunan broke rainfall records on July 28, with as much as 679 mm (26.7 inches) of rainfall recorded in just 24 hours. On the same day, Linjiang in Jilin province suffered the largest flood in history, with the water level more than 6 m (19.7 feet) higher than normal.Meanwhile, as of 7:00 LT on July 28, more than 46 000 residents in northeastern China’s Liaoning Province have been evacuated.Water levels in major rivers across Liaoning have risen significantly, along with elevated water levels in 40 reservoirs due to heavy rainfall. Currently, water is being released and there is no immediate danger, said the provincial flood control and drought relief department on July 28. In order to prevent floods and mitigate disasters, nearly 1 600 personnel have been deployed in the cities of Benxi, Dandong, Liaoyang, and Tieling in Liaoning to patrol and inspect 1 335 km (829 miles) of embankments. Cultural venues like the Liaoning Provincial Museum and Shenyang Palace Museum, were temporarily closed on July 28.

Record flooding in Amnok (Yalu) River submerges North Korea-China border - Heavy downpours on July 27, 2024, resulted in record flooding in the Amnok River, stranding more than 5 000 people in North Korea. This river, known as the Yalu River in China, forms part of the border between China and North Korea. This caused more than 5 000 inhabitants to be isolated in the zones vulnerable to flooding in several island areas in the city of Sinuiju and Uiju County of North Phyongan Province. The government dispatched 10 helicopters from the air force, lifeboats of the navy, a maritime guard formation of the border guards, and the military to conduct rescue operations in the affected region. The record-breaking flooding in the river saw a flow rate of 30 000 m3 per second (1 million feet3 per second) completely submerging the North Korean side of the border. Reports from the state-run news agency KCNA said that 4 200 citizens were rescued using helicopters in about 6 hours. Some areas in the counties on the shore of the Amnok River in North Phyongan, Jagang, and Ryanggang provinces, including the city of Sinuiju and Uiju County, should be declared as special-level disaster emergency areas, said Kim Jong Un. Currently, the North Korean government is focusing on damage control and rehabilitation. The KCNA report stated that further downpours are still expected in the region and Kim Jong Un has instructed authorities to make full preparations in advance and start taking permanent rehabilitation measures immediately after the danger of flooding has subsided. The news reports haven’t mentioned any casualties or injuries, but indicate heavy damage and flooding.

More than 150 dead, 187 missing after large landslides in Wayanad, Kerala - A series of large landslides caused by heavy rains struck Wayanad in the Indian state of Kerala at 03:00 local time (LT) on July 30, 2024. Revenue Minister K. Rajan’s office confirmed 54 deaths as of 12:36 LT, with over 100 people remaining missing. Rescue operations are currently underway, and over 250 people have been rescued according to the latest reports. Massive landslides caused by heavy rains struck Wayanad in Kerala early on July 30, uprooting trees before crushing multiple homes and burying people in mud. Rescue operations have been hampered due to the collapse of the main bridge and destroyed roads, making the affected areas difficult to reach. There were at least three landslides in the area, according to Rashid Padikkalparamban, a resident involved in the relief efforts. The NDRF, army, and air force are currently engaged in the rescue operations in the affected regions. The army was asked to build a temporary crossing after a bridge in the district that linked the affected forest area to the nearest town of Chooralmala was destroyed, forest minister A K Saseendran told reporters. A relief camp has been established at the Kathirur Cyclone Shelter in Thalassery Taluk. Thalassery Tehsildar reported that 13 people, including 2 children, have already taken refuge in the camp. In Iritty taluk, 5 families were relocated to their relatives’ homes following a rockslide near the Chavassery post office. Iritty Tahsildar further informed that approximately 50 families have been shifted to the homes of relatives due to the heavy rains, though no additional relief camps have been set up in the district beyond Thalassery Taluk.

Surveys reveal vast mangrove damage along Great Barrier Reef and restoration hotspots --A James Cook University report has revealed severe damage in about 80% of mangroves along the Great Barrier Reef, from Cairns to Gladstone—and pinpointed 52 potential restoration hotspots over 17,255 hectares.The findings bring hope and urgency for World Mangrove Day, offering a pathway to recovery and highlighting the critical need for conservation.The Great Barrier Reef Mangrove and Saltmarsh Condition Survey report used 80,000 high-resolution geo-referenced photographs from helicopter surveys, revealing the profound impacts of sea level rises, cyclone damage, and pollutants onmangrove habitats.JCU TropWATER researcher Professor Norm Duke said mangroves along the Great Barrier Reef coastline had not been surveyed to this extent before and results show vast damage."Our observations provide clear, unequivocal, and quantifiable evidence of changes to this increasingly dynamic shoreline," he said."You can see how sea level rises are eating at the mangrove shoreline, where mangroves are simply collapsing into the sea edge."The impact of severe tropical cyclones has battered the region over the past four decades, particularly Yasi in 2011 and Debbie in 2017. We can also see extensive shoreline tree loss from erosion, coupled with scouring erosion of salt pans, and retreat of terrestrial shorelines."This is widespread evidence of rising sea levels."Professor Duke said the aerial observations align with local records of sea level rise over the past half-century, which indicate an increase of at least 4mm per year.Mangroves are nature's blue carbon powerhouses—capable of capturing and storing significant amounts of carbon, making them a vital tool in mitigating the climate crisis. They are also biodiversity hotspots that provide essential breeding grounds for native fish, while stabilizing coastline ecosystems and reducing erosion. "Until now, beyond very limited desktop exercises, nobody knew if and where lost forests could be restored in the Great Barrier Reef, and what their capacity for carbon sequestration might be," he said."We coupled our field surveys with detailed digital elevation models, essentially 3D images of the landscape, tidal ingress mapping, long-term satellite tracking of mangrove health, land tenure and regulatory triggers."We also identified likely risks for each potential project and the main factors driving changes, like pollution, access tracks, feral pigs, sediment deposition, shoreline erosion, and storm damage.Greening Australia is already using the findings from this report to assess the potential for blue carbon ecosystem restoration for two projects in the Mulgrave and Mackay regions.

Cold wave alert as Australians face record-low temperatures, widespread frost outbreak - Millions of Australians are facing record-breaking sub-zero temperatures as an icy blast sweeps across the country from July 28 to August 2, 2024. A strong high-pressure ridge is causing dry conditions and frosty mornings, with temperatures plummeting below seasonal averages in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, and other regions. A cold air mass linked to a strong cold front caused temperatures to drop sharply across southeastern Australia late last week. This polar air brought snow to the Australian Alps and even caused snowfall at unusually low elevations outside the alpine regions. The cold weather persisted into the weekend and is expected to continue in parts of southeastern Australia for the next few days, affecting millions of Australians. On July 30, New South Wales (NSW) will face “unusually low” temperatures, according to BOM meteorologist Jiwon Park. The cold weather, driven by a strong high-pressure ridge, will bring dry conditions and frosty mornings until mid-week. Central and southern NSW, including the Lower Central West, South West Slopes, and eastern Riverina, are forecast to see temperatures below July records. Temora is expected to hit -7 °C (19.4 °F), breaking its record of -6.4 °C (20.5 °F). Other areas such as Young, Forbes, and Parkes will also face freezing conditions. “If we are seeing -6 degrees tomorrow morning, it will either be reaching the record or record-breaking July minimum temperatures,” Mr. Park said. Across NSW, minimum temperatures will be below seasonal averages. Wagga Wagga is expected to hit -6 °C (21.2 °F), Orange -4 °C (24.8 °F), and Tamworth -3 °C (26.6 °F). Canberra experienced -3.5 °C (25.7 °F) on July 29 and will see similar frosty starts throughout the week, with lows of -4 °C (24.8 °F) on July 30, -3 °C (26.6 °F) on July 31, and -1 °C (30.2 °F) on August 1 and 2. Queensland also suffers from the chilly weather, with temperatures 3 – 6 °C (5.4 – 10.8 °F) below the July average. “The widespread outbreak, which began on July 28, is expected to increase in size and stature into July 30 and 31,” Sky News Weather Meteorologist Rob Sharpe said, adding that a widespread frost outbreak will take shape across the country. In NSW, the Bureau of Meteorology issued a warning to sheep graziers in several regions due to the cold. Despite this, Sydney will be warmer, with maximum temperatures between 16 °C (60.8 °F) and 19 °C (66.2 °F), though possible showers and winds may increase the chill factor.

Anomalies of the recent SSW event begin downward propagation, potentially bringing a cold start to August - On July 30, 2024, NIWA reported that the anomalies from the recent stratospheric warming have started to propagate downward and are affecting tropospheric weather patterns in the southern hemisphere.NIWA is forecasting very high pressure over Antarctica, which will culminate in a cold start to August for New Zealand and western Australia.A ring of stormy weather called the polar vortex forms high above Antarctica in the stratosphere every winter. However this year it showed signs of warming and disturbance.The rare Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event was detected in the stratosphere above the Antarctic region earlier this month. Forecast models had predicted it would start to filter down through the atmosphere later this month.The downward propagation of these anomalies means that the tropospheric polar vortex will weaken, which would allow cold polar air to drift further away from Antarctica and spread towards the mid-latitudes.The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) started shifting into its negative phase about 1 week ago and was likely caused by the SSW event over Antarctica, which is expected to bring colder and wetter conditions to southern Australia.The negative phase of SAM brings notable changes in atmospheric conditions, including increased rainfall and cooler temperatures in southern Australia and parts of New Zealand.Meteorologists had warned that there were signs that another period of stratospheric warming could occur above Antarctica in the last week of July. Which could increase the likelihood of more negative SAM phases in late winter and early spring.SSW events are rare in the southern hemisphere, with only a few known events in the past decades, but they can be powerful and are known to affect the entire globe.Major SSW events can cause prolonged high-pressure anomalies over the South Pole, potentially affecting the Northern Hemisphere after several weeks to months.

Strong glacial flood in Mýrdalsjökull, Aviation Color Code for Katla raised to Yellow, Iceland - -- strong glacial flood began in Mýrdalsjökull, an ice cap atop the Katla volcano in southern Iceland, around 11:00 UTC on July 27, 2024. This event prompted authorities to raise the Aviation Color Code for Katla volcano to Yellow. The glacial flood increased the flow rate of the Skálm River to more than 1 000 m3 (35 300 feet3), resulting in the destruction of part of the ring road and a bridge over the river. The National Police Commissioner’s Public Defense declared a level of uncertainty in consultation with the police chief in South Iceland. Additionally, the Icelandic Met Office (IMO) raised the Aviation Color Code for Katla volcano to Yellow. The flow had decreased significantly by 21:00 UTC on July 27, IMO reported, adding that there were no signs of runoff reaching Múlakvísl or other rivers from Mýrdalsjökull. Strong glacial flood in Mýrdalsjökull, Aviation Color Code for Katla raised to Yellow, Iceland c Image credit: IMO “The Norwegian Meteorological Agency continues to monitor the area and closely monitor unrest and seismic activity under the glacier. It can take up to 24 hours for the activity to return to what is known as ‘normal background activity’, so this scenario can be declared over,” IMO said. There are no signs in the Norwegian Meteorological Agency’s data that a volcanic eruption caused the glacier run. Although it was an unusually large run, this event was caused by geothermal heat in the glacier’s cauldrons. A GPS meter located on Austmannsbunga shows clear signs that the changes measured in the caldera are a regular glacier run. However, it is unclear what caused more water to be released than is generally the case from such runs.

Study finds major Earth systems likely on track to collapse: 5 things to know -Four key pillars of the global climate are melting in the heat trapped by rising fossil fuel emissions, a new study has found.The relatively stable climate that nurtured human civilization depends in large part on these structures: the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica, the Amazon rainforest and the Atlantic currents that warm Europe.Under current policies, the world faces a scenario in which those pillars have roughly even odds of either surviving or collapsing during the next three centuries, according to results published Thursday in Nature Communications.The scientists warned that if the pillars are fatally undermined by heat, the resulting damage could prove impossible to undo — even if temperatures are successfully brought down later in the 21st century.Even so, the long timeline of those findings makes them, if anything, optimistic relative to other recent ones: They come on the heels of a string of disturbing studies about key global systems like the conveyor-belt Atlantic current that keeps Europe temperate, or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet that keeps global sea levels stable.They also come as the impacts of rising heat become increasingly obvious, seen in a range of phenomena including record-breaking temperatures — such as those baking Olympic athletes in Paris — thousand-year storms and worsening harvests. The Nature study found that the four “pillars” it focused on — the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest and the vast but melting Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets — are interconnected, like a row of dominoes. And the risk of those dominoes toppling increases with every 0.1 degrees Celsius (about 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit) of additional heat above the red line of 2 degrees Celsius set in the Paris climate agreement, the researchers wrote.They found that that risk is most urgent for the Atlantic current, which could tip into collapse within the next 15 years, and the Amazon rainforest, which could begin a runaway process of conversion to fire-prone grassland by the 2070s.“Following current policies this century would commit to a 45 percent tipping risk by 2300, even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 [Celsius],” they wrote.Each of these pillars is stabilized by, and contribute to, much larger patterns in the global climate and human civilization — as well as the other pillars.Take the AMOC: It functions as a conveyor belt that brings warm water from the tropics up into the North Atlantic, causing Europe to experience much warmer temperatures than Canada.The current’s weakening or failure would trap more hot water in the southern ocean, generating more hurricanes and speeding the melting of the Antarctic ice sheets, and lead to something like cataclysm for European agriculture — the sort of catastrophe for which preparation is of little use.“You cannot adapt to this,” the University of Copenhagen’s Peter Ditlevsen, who co-authored a Nature study last year on the potential midcentury collapse of the AMOC with his sister Susanne, told Inside Climate News.If that collapse occurs, he told Inside Climate, there are “studies of what happens to agriculture in Great Britain, and it becomes like trying to grow potatoes in Northern Norway.”Similarly, the Amazon stabilizes global climates and regional temperatures, locking down planet-heating greenhouse gasses and generating rain that waters fields as far away as the U.S. Midwest.And the full collapse of the cubic miles of ice in the Greenland Ice Sheet — whose melting is one of the principal sources of current sea level rise — would lead those levels to climb 23 feet,according to NASA.

How a warming Arctic is accelerating global climate change -Three recent papers authored by Ted Schuur, Regents' professor of biological sciences at Northern Arizona University, and other researchers around the world, organized through the Permafrost Carbon Network, investigate the biological processes taking place in the warming Arctic tundra and provide insight into what we can expect from that region as the climate continues to change.The world's most northern ecosystems, including the northern circumpolar permafrost region, are an important storage reservoir of organic carbon. Although this region, which includes the tundra and much of the boreal forest, contains only 15% of Earth's soil area, it stores around one-third of the world's soilorganic carbon.Just like water, carbon cycles through Earth's ecosystems, some being pulled out of the atmosphere by plant photosynthesis (a process known as uptake), and some being released into the atmosphere through other biological processes such as decomposition. The natural processes that release carbon into the atmosphere are collectively known as ecosystem respiration.Currently, permafrost ecosystems are warming three to four times faster than the rest of the planet, which is resulting in increased carbon cycling and increased respiration in the region. Although human activities are still the dominant contributor of greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, researchers expect additional emissions from the Arctic permafrost to accelerate future climate change by 10%–20%, with an anticipated impact comparable to a large, industrialized nation by 2100.Increased emissions projections from the permafrost region are poorly accounted for in the targets set by the Paris Agreement, an international treaty adopted by 196 countries in December 2015 to limit global warming. These future emissions from permafrost are not accounted for in the targets that 196 countries set as part of the Paris Agreement. That means that global and national carbon emissions cuts will have to be more ambitious in order to account for permafrost thaw and still meet agreed-on temperature targets. In one study, published in Nature Climate Change, the researchers analyzed multiple decades of annual carbon dioxide flux data from 70 sites in both permafrost and non-permafrost ecosystems, including summertime data from 181 ecosystems. They found that non-permafrost systems store additional carbon with increases in summer plant growth, but in permafrost ecosystems, carbon losses in the fall and winter were substantial enough to be offset by similar increases in summer uptake. In another article published in Nature on April 17, researchers compiled data from 56 experiments at 28 tundra sites that used miniature greenhouses to simulate warming, then synthesized their results to get a better sense of how future warming may impact the region. They found that a mean temperature increase of 1.4°C in the air and 0.4°C in the soil produced a 30% increase in ecosystem respiration.

Not the day after tomorrow: Why we can't predict the timing of climate tipping points - A study published in Science Advances reveals that uncertainties are currently too large to accurately predict exact tipping times for critical Earth system components like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), polar ice sheets, or tropical rainforests. These tipping events, which might unfold in response to human-caused global warming, are characterized by rapid, irreversible climate changes with potentially catastrophic consequences. However, as the study shows, predicting when these events will occur is more difficult than previously thought. Climate scientists from the Technical University of Munich (TUM) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) have identified three primary sources of uncertainty. First, predictions rely on assumptions regarding the underlying physical mechanisms, as well as regarding future human actions to extrapolate past data into the future. These assumptions can be overly simplistic and lead to significant errors. Second, long-term, direct observations of the climate system are rare and the Earth system components in question may not be suitably represented by the data. Third, historical climate data is incomplete. Huge data gaps, especially for the longer past, and the methods used to fill these gaps can introduce errors in the statistics used to predict possible tipping times. To illustrate their findings, the authors examined the AMOC, a crucial ocean current system. Previous predictions from historical data suggested a collapse could occur between 2025 and 2095. However, the new study revealed that the uncertainties are so large that these predictions are not reliable. Using different fingerprints and data sets, predicted tipping times for the AMOC ranged from 2050 to 8065 even if the underlying mechanistic assumptions were true. Knowing that the AMOC might tip somewhere within a 6,000-year window isn't practically useful, and this large range highlights the complexity and uncertainty involved in such predictions. The researchers conclude that while the idea of predicting climate tipping points is appealing, the reality is fraught with uncertainties. The current methods and data are not up to the task. "Our research is both a wake-up call and a cautionary tale," says lead author Maya Ben-Yami. "There are things we still can't predict, and we need to invest in better data and a more in-depth understanding of the systems in question. The stakes are too high to rely on shaky predictions." While the study by Ben-Yami and colleagues shows that we cannot reliably predict tipping events, the possibility of such events cannot be ruled out either. The authors also stress that statistical methods are still very good at telling us which parts of the climate have become more unstable. This includes not only the AMOC, but also the Amazon rainforest and ice sheets. "The large uncertainties imply that we need to be even more cautious than if we were able to precisely estimate a tipping time. We still need to do everything we can to reduce our impact on the climate, first and foremost by cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Even if we can't predict tipping times, the probability for key Earth system components to tip still increases with every tenth of a degree of warming,"

Study refines understanding of factors influencing global N₂O emissions from agricultural soils - Global atmospheric N2O concentration has surged by more than 23% since the pre-industrial era, rising from 270 parts per billion (ppb) in 1750 to 336 ppb in 2022. Approximately two-thirds of these emissions come from nitrogen fertilizer-applied soils and natural soils. Key factors influencing N2O emissions include climate, soil properties, and agricultural practices. A team of researchers from various institutions in China and Germany has refined the hierarchical structure of these factors at a global scale. Their findings, published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, provide new insights into the main drivers of N2O emissions from agricultural soils. The team conducted correlation and structural equation modeling analyses on a global N2O emission dataset to explore the influence of climate, soil properties, and agricultural practices on N2O emissions from both non-fertilized and fertilized upland farming systems. Additionally, they performed variance partitioning analysis to identify the primary controlling factors in different climatic zones. The study concluded that climatic factors, such as mean annual precipitation (MAP) and mean annual air temperature (MAT), are the principal influences on N2O emissions from non-fertilized upland soils. "In contrast, agricultural practices are the most influential factors for fertilized upland soils on a global scale," said Dr. Li Siqi, one of the corresponding authors and a researcher from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, "However, the key factors affecting N2O emission intensity vary under different climate conditions." For non-fertilized treatments, soil physical properties contributed most to N2O emission intensity in the subtropical monsoon zone (23%), while climate factors (MAP and MAT) were dominant in the temperate continental (22%) and monsoon (23%) zones. For fertilized treatments, soil physical properties had the greatest impact in the subtropical monsoon (26%) and temperate continental (28%) zones, whereas agricultural practices were most significant in the temperate monsoon zone (17%). "Our study also suggests that proper agricultural management practices, such as reducing nitrogen fertilizer rates combined with the addition of nitrification and urease inhibitors, can potentially mitigate N2O emissions by more than 60% in upland farming systems,"

Multiple Earth-directed CMEs, significant geomagnetic storming possible - Solar activity was at very high levels over the past 24 hours, with a series of moderate to strong solar flares, including an M9.9 flare on July 28 with an Earth-directed component. This, coupled with the cannibal CME expected to arrive late on July 29 into July 30, suggests significant geomagnetic storming is possible, potentially in the range of G3 – Strong or even G4 – Severe on July 30. According to the SWPC update at 00:30 UTC on July 28, at least two Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed since late July 26. The first CME was associated with a filament eruption late on July 26, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 21:24 UTC. The second CME was produced by a long-duration M3.1 flare from Active Region 3762 that peaked at 05:46 UTC on July 27. The latter CME was the faster of the two in modeling results and is expected to cannibalize the former. Although the timing has low confidence, modeling results showed a first arrival late on July 29 to early July 30. Based on this, SWPC predicted a G1 – Minor storm is likely late on July 29, increasing to G2 – Moderate as the bulk of the July 27 CME passes through the near-Earth environment. However, solar activity further increased and reached very high levels with M9.9 at 01:57 UTC on July 28 from Active Region 3766. This event started at 01:53 and ended at 02:01 UTC. Associated with this flare event was a Type II Radio Emission (estimated velocity 943 km/s) — suggesting a CME was produced, and a 10cm Radio Burst, lasting 6 minutes and with a peak flux of 250 sfu. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over East Asia and the Pacific Ocean at the time of this flare.We are still waiting for updated models, but space weather physicist Dr. Tamitha Skov suggests we could be seeing at least G3 – Strong if not G4 – Severe storming as a result. “With at least three if not four Earth-directed solar storms launched earlier today, this is sure to be the icing on the cake. It may not be as intense as the Gannon Storm back on May 10, but this compression of multiple back-to-back storms has at least G3 if not G4-level potential. Waiting for coronagraphs & model prediction runs,” Skov said. The location of the source region and available coronagraph imagery suggest we have another Earth-directed CME.

Impulsive X1.5 solar flare erupts from geoeffective Region 3764, G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm watch - An impulsive solar flare measuring X1.5 erupted from geoeffective Active Region 3764 at 02:37 UTC on July 29, 2024. The event started at 02:33 and ended at 02:43 UTC. As a result of recent solar activity, a G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm watch is in effect. A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 535 km/s was detected, indicating a coronal mass ejection (CME) was associated with the flare event. In addition, this event was associated with a 10cm Radio Burst lasting 1 minute and with a peak flux of 300 sfu. This indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.We are still waiting for coronagraph imagery but judging by the location of Region 3764 in the center of the disk, an Earth-directed CME is likely. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over East Asia, Australia, and the Pacific Ocean. This event follows several days of increased solar activity with multiple Earth-directed CMEs, including cannibal CME. As a result, a G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for July 30, according to the SWPC. Keep in mind this forecast still doesn’t take into account today’s CME, so we might be looking at prolonged geomagnetic storming in the days ahead. The same applies to this great analysis by space weather physicist Dr. Tamita Skov, published on July 28: (video) Solar activity is likely to be moderate to high with a slight chance for X-class flares through July 31 due to the potential of AR 3762 and the cluster of spotted groups containing ARs 3765 and 3766.

As US bets big on hydrogen for clean energy, local communities worry about secrecy and public health - Billions of dollars in public money are beginning to flow to seven “hydrogen hubs” around the country — regional nerve centers for a potentially clean fuel that could someday rival solar and wind and cut carbon from the atmosphere. On July 17, California’s hub, a public-private partnership called ARCHES, became the first to negotiate an agreement with the Department of Energy to build out hydrogen power plants, pipelines, and other projects. But researchers and community advocates warn that unless the federal government’s so-called hydrogen earthshot has adequate safeguards, it could worsen air pollution in vulnerable communities and aggravate a warming climate. They’re also concerned that specifics of the emerging efforts remain stubbornly secret from people who live near shovel-ready projects. That’s true even in California, a state that has declared a commitment not only to ambitious climate goals but also to environmental justice. “The people got left behind in this conversation,” said Fatima Abdul-Khabir, the Energy Equity Program manager at Oakland-based Greenlining Institute, an advocacy group. “It’s a massive step backwards.” Hydrogen, a colorless, odorless gas, is the world’s most abundant chemical element. When it’s used in fuel cells or burned for energy, it generates no atmosphere-warming carbon emissions. That means it could power trucks and airplanes without spewing soot from a tailpipe or exhaust from an engine. Hydrogen could help steel plants and other heavy industries lower their carbon footprints. But stripping hydrogen molecules from water or methane to use as fuel can be expensive and complicated, and if that process relies on fossil fuels, it could actually prolong climate pollution. That’s not the only health risk: When even cleanly-produced hydrogen is blended with methane and burned, it can still dirty the air with toxic byproducts that contribute to lung-irritating smog. The nation’s hydrogen earthshot is a risky and ambitious bet. Congress created an $8 billion pot of money for the hub system. It also tucked nearly $18 billion in grants and incentives into the Inflation Reduction Act and the infrastructure bill. An uncapped federal tax credit for companies that produce hydrogen energy could cost the public at least another $100 billion. “There’s so much hype right now for hydrogen because everybody wants a piece of the pie,” said Dan Esposito, an electricity policy analyst at the nonprofit firm Energy Innovation. To bring clean hydrogen to market as quickly as possible, the U.S. Department of Energy selected regional hubs based in part on their ability to quickly produce and find uses for clean hydrogen. The chosen hubs also must promise jobs and other community benefits that advance federal environmental justice goals. But California’s hub, a public-private partnership called ARCHES, is rejecting rules the federal government has proposed to help guard against the risk of rising pollution from incautious hydrogen projects. Along with the six other hubs, ARCHES signed a letter that warns of “far-reaching negative consequences” if the rules are made permanent. California’s hub has around 400 network partners, including Amazon, Cemex, Chevron and investor-owned utilities, including SoCal Gas and Edison International. Building on the state’s development of the world’s first standard to cut the carbon intensity of fuel, ARCHES promises to develop zero-carbon hydrogen using solar, wind, biomass and other renewable sources. “We came together to go after the federal funding, but that federal funding is just a start,” said Tyson Eckerle, a senior advisor for GO BIZ, at an environmental think tank’s conference in the spring. “It’s the pebble that launches the avalanche.” But California argues that its progress will be slowed if hydrogen developers have to meet rules the U.S. Department of the Treasury has proposed for projects seeking the lucrative 45V tax credit. Those rules are based on what energy experts refer to as the “three pillars” of clean hydrogen production. To make hydrogen clean and sustainable, it should be produced from a new source using carbon-neutral electricity. That electricity should be geographically close to where it’s needed, so delivering it isn’t costly. It should also be available when it’s needed, not traded or obtained through accounting from another time and place. California’s hydrogen leaders counter that the state already has a successful strategy — and numerous requirements — for getting clean energy on the grid. Complying with the federal rules would undermine that progress, ARCHES has said in a public response, making it “impossible” to integrate hydrogen “in a timely and cost-effect manner without disrupting our carefully calibrated energy system.” “We’re at almost 60 percent, 24/7 renewables across the board, which is a huge, huge step forward. We’re ahead of our goals in terms of meeting those obligations,” Galiteva told Public Health Watch. If these federal conditions “had been required for the nascent solar or battery or any other industry, those industries would never have taken off,” she said. Julie McNamara, a senior energy analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists, called California’s position contradictory. Even if the state’s renewables-rich grid deserves freedom from constraining rules, why would California support a free-for-all that gives states that continue to depend on fossil fuels a pass? “ARCHES is trying to have it both ways,” she said. Fossil fuel-focused energy companies, including BP and Shell, have also argued for more leeway in qualifying for the federal money. Clean hydrogen could be the angel of decarbonizing the energy sector, but Earthjustice senior research and policy analyst Sasan Saadat said that poorly defined hydrogen could be the devil, because it might prolong the use of fossil fuels. “You’ve taken this thing that is really dangerous and muddled it up with the world of climate solutions and clean energy and that’s why it’s so risky,” Saadat said. “The fossil fuel industry knows this and they can blur the lines.”

Ohio research project to explore how solar and farming can co-exist --Research underway at a Madison County solar farm promises to shed light on how well multi-use farming can work at a large scale. The answers will help shape best practices for future projects, while addressing some concerns raised in ongoing debates over siting large solar projects in rural farm areas.Spread across more than 1,900 acres, the 180 MW Madison Fields project will be one of North America’s largest test grounds for research into agrivoltaics — essentially farming between the rows on photovoltaic solar projects.As farmers seek to lease land for solar arrays to diversify their incomes, the practice could help them maximize their income and fend off opposition from critics concerned that solar development will take prime farmland out of production.Some farmers have also said the revenue from clean energy can help keep their farms operating amid pressure from housing developers. A recent report from the American Farmland Trust says Ohio could lose more than 518,000 acres of farmland to urban sprawl by 2040. That number dwarfs the roughly 95,000 acres for certified and other projects noted on the Ohio Power Siting Board’s most recent solar case status map. Yet solar projects generally deal with big chunks of land at once, while urban sprawl happens bit by bit over time, said Dale Arnold, director of energy policy for the Ohio Farm Bureau. Helping people understand and appreciate that is “absolutely huge,” he said. Savion, a Shell subsidiary, developed the Madison County project, and it began commercial operation on July 11 with Amazon as the long-term buyer for its energy. Yet work began much earlier this year to set up the site for research by Ohio State University scientists, Savion’s Between the Rows subsidiary, and others.“People have a lot of questions with regard to energy development going forward in this state,” particularly when it comes to taking land out of use for agricultural production, Arnold said.One big issue is what crops can work well for large-scale utility projects. Compared to most solar farms projects in Eastern and Piedmont states, utility-scale solar projects in Ohio and other Midwestern states can spread across 1,000 acres or more, Arnold said.“You hear a lot about produce and specialty crops,” for example, said Sarah Moser, Savion’s director of farm operations and agrivoltaics. But raising them is “hard to do on 1,000 acres.”Moser and Ohio State University researchers think forage crops like alfalfa and hay hold promise. Operations can be scaled up for large areas, said Eric Romich, an Ohio State University Extension field specialist for energy development. And the crops wouldn’t grow too tall amid the panels.“We also wanted something that we felt had the potential to be economical,” Romich said.Two 2023 reports by Ohio State University Extension researchers found raising hay and alfalfa between rows of solar panels was feasible and that the harvest’s nutritive value was good. But that small-scale work at the Pigtail Farms site in Van Wert County used data from only a few test plots and controls, which is an important limitation, Romich said.Work at Madison Fields will now test whether similar results can be achieved at large scale. Part of a $1.6 million grant from the Department of Energy will help pay for that work over the course of four years.

Dems’ Crushing Regs Cause PJM Electric Prices to Soar 933% in 2025 --Marcellus Drilling News - - PJM Interconnection, the largest U.S. power grid operator, published the results of its latest electricity auction yesterday. PJM serves 65 million people in 13 states plus the District of Columbia (including PA, OH, and WV). The latest auction for delivery of electricity in PJM in 2025/26 produced a wholesale price of $269.92/MW-day. That is a massive 933% increase from the $28.92/MW per day cost for delivery in 2024/2025. Of great interest to us is the overall mix of how PJM’s electricity gets generated. The auction (for 2025/26) shows a diverse mix of resources, including 48% produced by gas, 21% by nuclear, 18% by coal, 1% by solar, 1% by wind, 4% by hydro, 5% by demand response and 2% from other resources. We hear the constant drumbeat by mainstream media pushing renewable energy, yet solar and wind are producing a minuscule 2% of PJM’s electricity. How does that square? We are fed whoppers every day from mainstream news about the so-called ascendance of renewable energy.

25 AGs Ask U.S. Supreme Court to Stay New EPA Power Plant Rule -- The Bidenistas at the EPA attacked coal and gas-fired power plants in April, threatening to destabilize the existing electric power grid with new regulations (see EPA Rolls Out Final Regs Attacking Coal & Gas-Fired Power). Using 1,020 pages of new regulations, which will go into effect this year, all coal-fired plants that are slated to remain operational in the long term and all new gas-fired power plants will be required to control (capture) 90% of their carbon emissions using expensive and unproven technology. Translation: New gas-fired plants won’t get built, and most, if not all, coal plants will shutter, with the result that electricity will, by necessity, be rationed (see WSJ Calls Biden EPA Power Plant Regs a Plan to “Ration Electricity”). Twenty-five state Attornies General, led by West Virginia AG Patrick Morrisey, asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia to invalidate the EPA’s new finalized power plant regulation (see 25 States Led by WV Ask DC Circuit to Overturn EPA Power Plant Reg). The DC Circuit declined to do so, allowing the onerous rules to stand.

Natural gas shows its staying power as U.S. wind output slumps -- Power producers in the U.S. are becoming increasingly reliant on natural gas for generation, even as the country builds out renewable energy capacity at a record pace. Renewable energy sources have been grabbing a steadily growing share of the power mix for years, which has allowed power firms to cut coal-fired power and reduce emissions. But due to the volatile nature of renewable energy flows, power firms have needed to increase the use of natural gas within power systems and remain heavily dependent on gas whenever renewable energy supplies drop off. That high gas dependency was highlighted again this month as wind generation slumped just as overall power use climbed due to high temperatures and strong demand for air conditioning. On the hook. Power firms must ensure supply meets demand by adjusting fuel mixes as necessary, and this month they had to offset a steep drop in output from wind farms while also accommodating a climb in total power demand due to greater use of cooling systems across much of the country. From July 1–July 23, power generation from U.S. wind farms dropped by 78% from 57,274 megawatt hours (MWh) to 12,608 MWh, data from LSEG shows. Wind generation levels often slump during the summer due to lower wind speeds at turbine level, but on July 23 the production levels were the lowest for that date in more than least three years. To offset such a notable dip in clean power supply, power firms boosted natural gas-fired generation by 27% over the same period, from 217,617 MWh on July 1 to 276,453 MWh on July 23, according to LSEG. This steep climb in gas-fired generation pushed natural gas's share of the national power generation mix to 46.3% so far in July, from an average of 40% for the opening half of 2024. But the higher gas-fired output also helped lift total generation levels by 3.4% on July 23 from July 1, ensuring the national power system was able to meet elevated demand needs. Key power pillar. The ability of natural gas to speedily plug supply shortfalls from other sources means the fuel will remain a critical pillar of the U.S. power system for years to come, despite continued rapid growth in renewable energy sources. Natural gas supplied just over 42% of U.S. electricity in 2023, according to energy think tank Ember. That was by far the largest single power source in the country and compared to 15.61% from combined wind and solar sources, 16% from coal plants, 18.25% from nuclear plants and around 6% from hydro dams. With power firms committed to reducing emissions, renewables look set to grow their share of the national generation mix while coal's share will decline further. But natural gas will remain the primary fuel source in a majority of key power systems across the U.S., and will likely continue to expand its share of the overall generation pie before being gradually reduced in generation systems over the coming decades.

Republican States Ask US Supreme Court to Save Fossil Fuel Power Plants - Twenty-five Republican attorneys-general have lodged a joint plea before the United States Supreme Court for an emergency stay of new power emission rules that they fear may shut down generation plants running on fossil fuels. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized last April new regulations that, according to the agency, will result in all long-term existing coal-fired plants and new base load natural gas-run turbines capturing 90 percent of their on-site emissions. On May 9, the same day the new rules came out on the Federal Register, several petitions for review were filed before the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC), including one by GOP attorneys-general. The court then unified these cases into one, after which the attorneys-general and other industry petitioners filed separate motions for stay. On July 19, the DC Circuit rejected all the stay requests, expressing support for the EPA’s bid to help decarbonize the electricity sector and ruling that the applicants had failed to show “they are likely to succeed on those claims given the record in this case”, according to the new legal filing challenging the new rules before the Supreme Court. The new case recalls to the Supreme Court that it already junked a similar EPA rulemaking years ago as the rulemaking concerned a policy that needed to pass through Congress. The new court filing states, “Among other things, the Rule imposes inadequately demonstrated technologies on unworkable timeframes, effectively squeezing plants into retirement”. “Relatedly, it causes serious immediate harms by either pushing plants into binding commitments for retirement or pressing them to start spending large sums to hit compliance dates”, the Republican attorneys-general tell the Supreme Court. “The Court should stay the Rule because the States will likely succeed on the merits, they face likely irreparable harm, a stay will not substantially injure other interested parties, and the public interest favors a stay”, they say. The new rules effectively ask that long-term active coal-fired steam generating units should have their own carbon capture and storage systems for 90 percent of their emissions by 2032. Medium-term existing coal-fired steam generating units should also enable natural gas co-firing at 40 percent of the heat input to each unit by 2030. Moreover, the new rules impose annual emission limits for base load, intermediate load and low load existing oil-fueled steam generating units at 1,400 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt hour (CO2 per mWh), 1,600 pounds of CO2 per mWh and 170 pounds of CO2 per million British thermal unit (MMBtu) respectively. For power plants running on natural gas, the new rules require limits for base load, intermediate load and low load units at 1,400 pounds of CO2 per mWh, 1,600 pounds of CO2 per mWh and 130 pounds of CO2 per MMBtu respectively. These oil- or gas-fired plants must achieve compliance by 2030. “Consistent with EPA’s traditional approach to establishing pollution standards under the Clean Air Act, the final limits and emission guidelines are based on proven pollution control technologies that can be applied directly to power plants and can achieve substantial reductions in carbon pollution at reasonable cost”, the agency says in a statement on its website. “Emission guidelines for the longest-running existing coal units and performance standards for new base load combustion turbines are based on the use of carbon capture and sequestration/storage – an available and cost-effective control technology that can be applied directly to power plants”. Based on its analysis of the prospective impact of the new rules, the EPA projected reductions of 1.38 billion metric tons of CO2 through 2047, “along with tens of thousands of tons of PM2.5, SO2, and NOx – harmful air pollutants that are known to endanger public health”, the EPA says. Environmental campaigners have rallied behind the EPA over the legal challenges. Vickie Patton, general counsel of the Environmental Defense Fund, said in a group statement July 19 about the DC Circuit’s rejection of the motions for stay, “Americans across the nation are suffering from the intense heat waves, extreme storms and flooding, and increased wildfires caused by climate pollution”. “EPA has a legal responsibility, mandated by Congress, to control harmful climate pollution, which the court recognized today. We will continue to strongly defend EPA’s cost-effective and achievable carbon pollution standards for power plants”, Patton added.

After more than a decade of advocacy, a majority of injection wells in Athens County are suspended • Ohio Capital Journal -After sounding the alarm on fracking waste injection wells for more than a decade, Roxanne Groff from Athens County is now finally starting to see some of the fruits of her and her friends’ labor. A handful of Athens County injection wells were suspended afterOhio Department of Natural Resources determined they pose an “imminent danger to the health and safety of the public and is likely to result in immediate substantial damage to the natural resources of the state,” according to letters from Chief of the Division of Oil and Gas Resources Management Eric Vendel. Groff’s advocacy against injection wells started back in 2012 with the Hazel–Ginsburg well. It has since grown to include many Southeast Ohio residents who are also sounding the alarm — something Groff believes helped led to the wells being suspended. “All of us together, all of the community members stood up for themselves and pushed back,” Groff said. “We know that this is dangerous.” There are seven class 2 injection wells in Athens County, but five are no longer in operation and the ODNR Division of Oil & Gas Resources Management expects those wells to be plugged, ODNR spokesperson Karina Cheung said in an email. Historically, three injection wells have been plugged in the county, she said. Class 2 wells are used to inject fluids — primarily brines — associated with oil and natural gas production, according to the EPA. Included in the five Athens wells that are out of operation are three K&H injection wells that were operational until a decision by the Oil and Gas Commission on April 19.The plugging permits for the three K&H wells will be issued soon and will be effective for two years once they are issued, Cheung said. She said the wells will be plugged this summer (according to the company Tallgrass Energy that owns the K&H wells). The Frost well was last used in 2021 and has been ordered to be plugged by the Chief of the Division of Oil & Gas Resources Management.“The company is in receivership and the Division has been in communication with the receiver about their obligation to plug the well,” Cheung said in an email. Plugging a well includes removing all uncemented casing and tubing from the well, and using cement to plug the well “ in a manner to isolate all oil, gas, and brine to formations that they originate in,” Cheung said. The exact cost of plugging a well is tough to determine.“Plugging costs vary due to differences in wells and the costs of abandonment and decommissioning of the surface storage facilities associated with the wells,” Cheung said in an email. But just because the wells will eventually be plugged doesn’t mean the environmental risks are gone, Athens County resident Susie Quinn said. “All the stuff that they’ve injected down there, it’s still down there,” she said. “This is not a cleanup. It’s just there stopping anymore from going in.”The Quinns got earthquake insurance for their house nearly a decade ago because “we’ve had so many little ones because of the fracking and injection wells.”Groff echoed Quinn’s sentiments about the plugged wells. “The threat remains … all that waste is there,” she said. “It’s down there. It’s under pressure. If it feels like going somewhere, it’s going to find a crack, and it’s going to keep going through that crack … until it gets to someplace where it either comes up to the surface or it just stops fracturing.Even though some of the wells are no longer in use, Groff isn’t hanging up her activist hat just yet. For one, not all injection wells are suspended. The last two remaining wells in operation in Athens County are in Canaan Township and Lee Township, Cheung said. The long-term effects of the injection wells are not totally known at the moment and could not show up for years or decades, Groff said. Athens County Commissioner President Lenny Eliason said he would like to focus on long-term monitoring.“Appalachia has been extracted for years for a number of different materials and the pain of the short term gains sticks around a long time after,” he said. “So we have to get people that are more forward thinking about balancing what that short term gain is going to bring in the long term.”

US Chemical Safety Board issues damning report on 2022 BP refinery disaster that killed two in Ohio --Late last month, the US Chemical Safety Board (CSB) published a 169-page investigation report on the causes of the September 2022 explosion at the former BP Husky refinery in Oregon, Ohio, which killed brothers Ben and Max Morrissey. The report, based on a two-year investigation of on-scene evidence, eyewitness testimony and company and government records, makes it clear the Morrisseys’ deaths were entirely preventable. The CSB report also vindicates the assessment of the World Socialist Web Site, which explained that the tragedy was result of the subordination of workers’ safety to profit by BP management, aided and abetted by state and federal safety agencies and the United Steelworkers bureaucracy. After the release of the report, Ben’s widow Kaddie Morrissey told local news outlet WTOL, “I’m saddened that this workplace incident could have been completely avoided if BP would have followed safety protocols and made sure their employees were coming into a safe work environment. We miss Ben and Max so much.” Max’s widow, Darah, told local news station,“That whole place could have blown up. I have no doubt in my mind they were doing everything and everything they could to save more lives, but obviously I think they would want to be here today.” Max Morrissey, 34, had been an employee at the refinery since 2020. His brother Ben, 32, was an operator trainee who had only been working there since March 2022. The two were among the 315 members of United Steelworkers Local 1 Chapter 346 employed at the refinery, which processes crude oil for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, propane, asphalt and other products. The CSB report provides a timeline of events on September 20, 2022, which the agency described as a “series of cascading—and worsening—events' over a 12-hour span, during which time 3,700 emergency alarms overwhelmed management and refinery employees. Rather than shutting down the facility as many workers demanded, management ordered operators and trainees to take ever-riskier measures, leading to the fatal explosion. “Nearly everything that could go wrong did go wrong during this incident,” CSB Chairperson Steve Owens stated. According to the report, flammable liquid naphtha began to fill a fuel gas mix drum, which overflowed and sent the naphtha into the plant's various boilers and furnaces. The Morrissey brothers and two other workers were instructed to drain the gas mix drum as fast as possible, unaware they were handling highly flammable naphtha. After the other two workers left, the Morrissey brothers began draining to the naptha directly to the ground, creating a vapor cloud around them. The report says shifting winds from a coming storm likely pushed the cloud toward an ignition source—a nearby crude oil furnace. At 6:46 p.m., a massive blast reverberated for miles and a wall of flame engulfed the two young workers. The CSB attributes the root causes of the disaster to five factors:

Failure to implement effective preventive safeguards [and] an over-reliance on human intervention to prevent incidents.
Failure to implement a shutdown.
Ineffective policies, procedures, and practices to avoid and control abnormal situation.
Alarm system which flooded operators with alarms throughout the day resulting in poor decision making.
Failure to learn from previous incidents.

The Chemical Safety Board details how BP flaunted industry-wide practices, regulator fines, and the lessons of past disasters, including the 2005 Texas City refinery explosion where 15 workers were killed and 180 injured. A CSB chart highlights the violations that led up to the 2005 Texas City refinery explosion, which continued to be ignored and contributed to the 2022 disaster, 17 years later. As direct evidence of BP’s gross negligence, the CSB included a 2019 incident report at the BP Husky refinery wherein naphtha was back flowing into a bypass line and accumulating in the fuel gas mix drum—precisely the precipitating circumstance that led to the Morrissey brothers’ death. The report notes that refinery operators were regularly working 12-hour shifts and the company employed a practice of “job rotation,” which undermined safety. In a Hazard Alert Letter issued by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) six months after the disaster, OSHA stated: [R]otating process operators among multiple positions, instead of a single position, can reduce the level of expertise and knowledge of operators on the unit for which they are initially qualified. In the event of a process upset condition or catastrophic incident, this decrease in expertise can negatively affect incident response efforts, posing a higher likelihood of exposure to toxic vapor/gas, fire and explosion hazards.

Austin Master Services CEO Pays $25,000 Bond to Stay Out of Jail --Marcellus Drilling News - Last week, MDN exclusively brought you the news that the CEO of American Environmental Services, which owns Austin Master Services (AMS), had filed a brief with Belmont County Court to either forgive or reduce a $1.2 million bond needed to keep the CEO, Brad Domitrovitsch, out of jail (see Austin Master Serv. CEO Asks Court to Block Jail Time, $1.2M Bond). The judge in the case reconsidered and reduced the bond from $1.2 million down to $25,000. Quite the reduction in Domitrovitsch’s “stay out of jail” card.

Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio Sells 67,383 Shares of Kinder Morgan, Inc ...Kinder Morgan, Inc operates as an energy infrastructure company primarily in North America. The company operates through Natural Gas Pipelines, Products Pipelines, Terminals, and CO2 segments. The Natural Gas Pipelines segment owns and operates interstate and intrastate natural gas pipeline, and storage systems; natural gas gathering systems and natural gas processing and treating facilities; natural gas liquids fractionation facilities and transportation systems; and liquefied natural gas gasification, liquefaction, and storage facilities.

CNX Drilled 8 Marcellus, Turned to Sales 2 Utica Wells in 2Q24 ---Marcellus Drilling News -- Last week, CNX Resources issued its second quarter 2024 update. The company lost $18.3 million in 2Q24, compared with making a profit of $475 million in 2Q23. This is quite a whack due to the low price of natural gas. Production was 134.0 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent) in 2Q24 — which works out to 1.47 Bcfe/d — down from 134.2 Bcfe last year (statistically the same). On the bright side, management was excited about the early results of two deep Utica gas wells that were brought online last quarter.

9 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jul 22 – 28 | Marcellus Drilling News --For the week of July 22 – 28, a total of nine permits were issued to drill new shale wells in Marcellus/Utica. Pennsylvania had the fewest with just two new permits, one each for Seneca Resources and Rice Drilling (i.e., EQT). Ohio had the most with four new permits, all of them for EOG Resources for a single pad in Noble County. West Virginia came in between with three new permits, all three for Antero Resources in Tyler County. ANTERO RESOURCES | ELK COUNTY | EOG RESOURCES | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | NOBLE COUNTY |SENECA RESOURCES | TYLER COUNTY

The Story of Utica Oil Part 1: Encino Becomes Most Active Driller - Marcellus Drilling News --We’ve written a number of times about the Ohio Utica Shale and its beginnings with gas legend Aubrey McClendon, who, as CEO of Chesapeake Energy, was one of (if not THE) first to recognize the Utica as an oil play. However, it was a successor company, Encino Energy, that figured out how to coax large quantities of oil out of the Utica shale. Encino is one of the big success stories of drilling for oil in the Ohio Utica Shale. Roughly six years ago, Encino, in partnership with the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments), closed on buying Chesapeake Energy’s Ohio Utica assets for $2 billion (seeEncino Takes Over from Chesapeake in Ohio Utica; Big Plans). What Encino and a former Range Resources executive who now works for Encino have done is nothing short of magical (see Oil Prod. in Northern Utica Comes Alive – Encino Cracks Oil Code).
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DT Midstream in Talks to Expand Appalachian Gathering System -Marcellus Drilling News -- DT Midstream (DTM), headquartered in Detroit, owns major assets in the Marcellus/Utica region and other regions like the Haynesville. DTM issued its second quarter 2024 update yesterday. Of keen interest to us was any talk of the company’s Phase III expansion to the Appalachian Gathering System and an expansion in the Tioga County gathering system. To understand the comments coming from yesterday’s update, we need to go back to the first quarter 2024 update…

Court axes FERC pipeline approval that threatened New Jersey climate goals - A federal appeals court on Tuesday tossed out an approval for a Northeastern gas project, a major victory for New Jersey’s climate ambitions and advocates who want federal regulators to rethink how they weigh the need for new fossil fuel infrastructure.The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit found that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission had failed to consider significant environmental consequences and a lack of market demand for additional gas capacity when it granted a certificate for the contested project in 2023.The court also found that FERC had not accounted for New Jersey state laws requiring reductions in gas consumption. The record before FERC showed that the Transcontinental Pipe Line Co. Regional Energy Access Expansion (REAE) project would result in “enormous” emissions for the next half century, said Judge J. Michelle Childs, writing the opinion for the D.C. Circuit.“But it then walked away from the issues with a fatalistic shrug,” she said.Nowhere in FERC’s certificate approving construction of the Transco project did the commission explain whether or how it had considered emissions, or how it found that those emissions were outweighed by the project’s benefits, Childs continued.Instead, she said, FERC stated that it agreed with the conclusion of its National Environmental Policy Act analysis that this was an acceptable project, and summarized other impacts.“These broad-brush statements do not provide assurance that the Commission balanced the climate-related emissions to which the Commission refused to assign a significance label,” she said.Judges Cornelia Pillard, an Obama pick, and Brad Garcia, a Biden appointee, also joined Childs’ opinion.The three-judge panel ordered FERC to start over on the certificate, noting that it was not “sufficiently likely” that the commission would be able to explain its decision-making if the court simply remanded the approval.“It is far from clear that FERC’s failure here is only one of explanation,” Childs wrote. “Petitioners have identified potentially consequential deficiencies in the Certificate Order’s requisite considerations of market need and balance of public benefits and harms.”Opponents of the Transco project hailed the ruling and predicted the decision could push FERC to expand its justification for future gas projects in light of their expected effects on the climate.“The D.C. Circuit’s opinion is clear and unequivocal,” said Jennifer Danis, federal energy policy director at New York University’s Institute for Policy Integrity. Danis penned a “friend of the court” brief on behalf of the project’s opponents.“FERC ignored its [Natural Gas Act] mandate to protect the public interest when it approved the REAE pipeline despite substantial record evidence showing the project would serve private interests at the public’s expense,” she said.The D.C. Circuit took a “significant step” toward ensuring that FERC rigorously evaluates project proposals, said Megan Gibson, chief counsel at the Niskanen Center, which represented challengers in the case.“The court has set a precedent for demanding greater accountability and thoroughness in FERC’s decision-making, which hopefully takes hold and FERC starts really looking under the hood and examining these projects,” she said.The $1 billion Transco gas expansion project included about 36 miles of new pipe, as well as new and modified compressor stations and other facilities to serve about 3 million customers, primarily in New Jersey, as well as in other Eastern states.

Companies Argue Over Who Can Supply NatGas to WV Hydrogen Plant -Marcellus Drilling News - Hope Gas, West Virginia’s largest natural gas utility company, and Quantum Pleasants, which is working on a plan in Pleasants County, WV, to use natural gas to produce hydrogen for electricity generation at what is currently a coal-burning plant, are squabbling before the state Public Service Commission (PSC) over whether or not Quantum Pleasants has the right to buy its natural gas from a different vendor (with a different pipeline).

Virginia Fines MVP Another Piddly $30K for Erosion Violations - --Marcellus Drilling News - The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) slapped the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) project (which is now online) with a fine of $30,500 for violations of erosion and sediment control rules that happened during the second quarter. It is the fourth consecutive quarter in which MVP was fined by the DEQ for violations. In total, MVP has been fined nearly $100,000 by the DEQ over the past one year. Which is pretty much a nothingburger.

NatGas Demand in Powergen Grows, but Falls in Other Sectors | Marcellus Drilling News - As you may have noticed, a number of our posts today are stories about gas-fired power plants, which are vitally important (very big) customers for shale gas. According to an analysis by Reuters, natural gas use by power generators has expanded by around 3.5% a year over the past three years and is by far the largest single source of gas used in the U.S. However, natural gas consumption by the other major sectors, including industry, households, and commercial, is falling each year. The fall in usage by industry, etc., is more than the growth in powergen.

Oglethorpe Investing $2.3B in New Gas-Fired Power Plants in Ga. -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Oglethorpe Power is investing more than $2.3 billion in two new natural gas-fired power plants to supply its 38 member cooperatives with an additional 1,400 megawatts of electricity to meet escalating demand across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. We think some, perhaps most of the gas that will feed these two new plants will come from the Marcellus/Utica.

TVA Plans for Miss. Gas-Fired Plant Triggers Hoaxers to Pitch a Fit --Marcellus Drilling News -- The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) is the sixth-largest power supplier and the largest public utility in the country. In 2021, MDN told you that TVA is spending over $1 billion to replace six coal-fired plants with natgas-fired turbines (see TVA Investing $1B to Build New Natgas-Fired Electric Plants). Earlier this week, TVA asked for public input on one of the projects, the New Caledonia Natural Gas Plant in Mississippi. The TVA plan for New Calendonia has triggered the radical left to respond.

Haynesville-Focused Comstock Taking ‘Frack Holiday’ to Await Uptick in Natural Gas Prices - Comstock Resources Inc., one of the most prolific natural gas producers in the Haynesville Shale, has dropped rigs, cut completion crews and suspended the quarterly dividend to wait out more favorable commodity prices. Chart showing Comstock Resources' natural gas price realizations. The Frisco, TX-based independent, with close to 750,000 net acres across the Haynesville, reported solid production results within its core development, the western portion of the play. Once prices cooperate, the company would be “well-positioned to benefit from the longer-term growth in natural gas demand,” CEO Jay Allison said. He discussed the outlook during a quarterly conference call on Wednesday. Comstock is “best located to serve the growing natural gas demand along the Gulf Coast,” Allison said. “The future for the company has never ever been brighter.

Crowley takes delivery of LNG bunkering barge chartered by Shell - US shipping and logistics company Crowley has taken delivery of a 12,000-cbm LNG bunkering barge which will serve a unit of LNG giant Shell.Fincantieri Bay Shipbuilding in Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin, built the LNG bunkering barge named Progress.Crowley claims this is the largest US Jones Act-compliant vessel of its kind.The company and Shell NA LNG revealed this project in September 2021, and Fincantieri Bay Shipbuilding started work on the 126.8 meters long vessel in January 2021.Shell’s unit will take the barge on a long-term charter.According to Crowley, Progress will expand access to “cleaner energy” for ship operators at the Port of Savannah, Georgia.Progress’ technologies include capability developed by Shell and Crowley’s engineering services group to flexibly deliver LNG to various types of LNG containment systems, it said.Shell has a worldwide LNG bunkering network, including in the US.In January, 2021 Shell completed the first ship-to-ship bunkering operation using Q-LNG’s barge, Q-LNG 4000, in Florida.Last year, Shell completed the first LNG bunkering operation in the Caribbean with the 18,000-cbm bunkering vessel, New Frontier 2.Earlier this year, Shell expanded its global LNG bunkering network with the completion of its first operation in the port of Zeebrugge, Belgium.

US weekly LNG exports rise to 21 shipments - US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports reached 21 shipments in the week ending July 24, and pipeline deliveries to US terminals rose compared to the week before, according to the Energy Information Administration.The agency said in its weekly report, citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, the total capacity of these 21 LNG vessels is 79 Bcf.This compares to 20 shipments and 75 Bcf in the week ending July 17. Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals increased 0.4 Bcf/d from last week to 11.5 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 0.8 percent (0.1 Bcf/d) to 7.7 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased 19.2 percent (0.4 Bcf/d) to 2.6 Bcf/d.Also, natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged from last week at 1.1 Bcf/d, the agency said.Freeport LNG, south of Houston, continued to ramp-up operations this week according to Gulf South Pipeline Company and Texas Eastern Transmission following a period of being offline due to Hurricane Beryl.Last weekend, Freeport LNG has shipped the first cargo from its LNG export plant since the shutdown on July 7.During the week under review, Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped nine cargoes and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent four shipments.Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal shipped three cargoes, while Venture Global LNG’s Calcasieu Pass facility and the Freeport LNG terminal each shipped two cargoes.Also, the Elba Island facility sent one cargo, and the Cove Point terminal did not ship cargoes during the week under review.This report week, the Henry Hub spot price rose 5 cents from $1.98 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.03/MMBtu this Wednesday.The agency said the price of the August 2024 NYMEX contract increased 8.2 cents, from $2.035/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.117/MMBtu this Wednesday.The price of the 12-month strip averaging August 2024 through July 2025 futures contracts climbed 6 cents to $2.887/MMBtu. The agency said that international natural gas futures were mixed this report week.Bloomberg Finance reported that weekly average front-month futures prices for LNG cargoes in East Asia decreased 15 cents to a weekly average of $12.13/MMBtu.Natural gas futures for delivery at the Dutch TTF increased 10 cents to a weekly average of $10.26/MMBtu.In the same week last year (week ending July 26, 2023), the prices were $11.13/MMBtu in East Asia and $9.67/MMBtu at TTF, the agency said.

India was top destination for US LNG cargoes in May --India was the top destination for US liquefied natural gas cargoes in May, as Asia overtook Europe as the main destination for US LNG supplies, according to the Department of Energy’s newest LNG monthly report.The DOE report shows that US terminals shipped 45.3 Bcf of LNG to India in May, 41.2 Bcf to Japan, 37.7 Bcf to the Netherlands, 28.4 Bcf to South Korea, and 26.2 Bcf to Germany.These five countries took 48.6 percent of total US LNG exports in May.Dutch and French LNG import terminals were the top destinations for US LNG supplies in March and April.According to DOE’s data, the Netherlands was the top destination for US LNG supplies in January-May with 229.7 Bcf or 69 cargoes, down by 12 percent year-on-year, while France took 195.5 Bcf or 60 cargoes, down by 5 percent year-on-year.In 2023, the Netherlands was also the the prime destination for US LNG cargoes with 588.6 Bcf, followed by France with 493.2 Bcf.The US exported in total 367.7 Bcf of LNG in May to 32 countries, up by 0.3 percent compared to the same month in 2023 and a rise of 21 percent from the prior month, the DOE report shows.Asia received 186.6 Bcf or 50.8 percent of these volumes, while Europe received 140.7 Bcf or 38.3 percent of these volumes and Latin America/Caribbean received 40.4 Bcf or 11 percent.The DOE said that 84.8 percent of total May LNG exports went to non-free trade agreement countries, while the remaining 15.2 percent went to free trade agreement countries.US terminals shipped 122 LNG cargoes in May, up from 105 LNG cargoes in April.Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant sent 40 cargoes and its Corpus Christi terminal shipped 20 cargoes, while the Freeport LNG terminal shipped 24 cargoes and Sempra’s Cameron LNG plant and Venture Global’s Calcasieu plant each sent 14 cargoes.The Cove Point LNG dispatched 8 shipments and Elba Island LNG sent 2 cargoes. According to DOE’s report, the average price by export terminal reached 5.42/MMBtu in May, and this compares to 7.05/MMBtu in May 2013, while the average price was 5.25/MMBtu in April, $5.47/MMBtu in March, $6.31/MMBtu in February, and 6.63/MMBtu in January this year.The most expensive average price in May comes from Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass terminal and it reached $8.04/MMBtu.Prices at other facilities ranged between $4.08-$6.04/MMBtu, the data shows.

Eagle LNG Seeks Extension to Build Jacksonville LNG Export Facility ---Marcellus Drilling News - In September 2019, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) gave its blessing to Eagle LNG to build a small LNG export facility project at a site on the St. Johns River in Jacksonville, Florida (see FERC Grants Final Approval to Jacksonville, FL LNG Export Plant). According to our research, some of the gas that will feed it will come from the Marcellus/Utica. FERC’s blessing in September 2019 came with a deadline to get the facility built by September 2024. Eagle says it can’t meet the deadline and has asked FERC to extend it by another five years.

Venture Global LNG wraps up $1.5 billion senior notes offering - US LNG exporter Venture Global LNG has closed its $1.5 billion offering of senior secured notes.The 7 percent senior secured notes will mature on January 15, 2030 and were issued at par, according to Venture Global.Also, the firm said the notes were secured on a pari passu basis by a first-priority security interest in substantially all of the existing and future assets of Venture Global and the future guarantors, if any, subject to customary exclusions.Venture Global said the notes were not registered under the Securities Act of 1933, or the securities laws of any state or other jurisdictions, and the notes may not be offered or sold in the US.In November last year, Venture Global closed its $1 billion offering of senior secured notes.The firm said at the time that this offering takes Venture Global’s total year-to-date high yield debt raised to $9.5 billion, which marks the “largest US dollar high yield issuance by volume in a single year since 2015”.Venture Global currently exports LNG via its 10 mtpa Calcasieu Pass liquefaction plant in Louisiana, which is still in the commissioning phase.The firm is also working to launch production at its Plaquemines LNG export terminal in Louisiana.Venture Global took a final investment decision in May 2022 on the first phase of the Plaquemines project with a capacity of 13.3 mtpa and the related pipeline. It also secured $13.2 billion in project financing.In March last year, the company sanctioned the second phase of the Plaquemines LNG export plant in Louisiana and also secured $7.8 billion in project financing.The full project, including the second stage, will have a capacity of 20 mtpa coming from 36 modular units, configured in 18 blocks.Last month, the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) last month gave the green light to Venture Global LNG for its proposed Plaquemines LNG uprate project.In addition to these projects, the US FERC has recently given the green light to Venture Global for its proposed CP2 LNG project in Louisiana.The CP2 LNG plant will be located next to Venture Global’s existing Calcasieu Pass liquefaction plant.

Baker Hughes Natural Gas Orders – for LNG and Beyond – Robust and Climbing, Says Simonelli -- Global natural gas and LNG consumption continues to strengthen, supported by accelerating Asian demand and “resiliency” in the industrialized nations, Baker Hughes Co. CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said Friday. Graph of Baker Hughes' global gas demand outlook. All signs look positive for gas consumption for the medium term, Simonelli said during a conference call to discuss second quarter performance. In addition to rising liquefied natural gas demand, he pointed to trends suggesting burgeoning growth in gas technology, driven in part by data centers powering artificial intelligence (AI). “The notable rise in generative AI could provide upside to our current expectations for natural gas demand to increase by almost 20% between now and 2040,” Simonelli told investors. “We are confident that strong underlying natural gas demand will lead to robust and sustainable growth in LNG through the end of this decade.”

Freeport LNG says all three trains back online -- Freeport LNG, the operator of the 15 mtpa liquefaction plant in Texas, has resumed operations at all of its three liquefaction trains.“All three of Freeport LNG’s liquefaction trains have been safely restarted,” a Freeport LNG spokeswoman told LNG Prime on Monday.“We are now in the process of completing our return to normal production rates,” the spokeswoman said.The LNG terminal operator ramped down production at its liquefaction end export facility on Sunday, July 7, ahead of Hurricane Beryl making landfall.Freeport LNG said on July 15 that it expects to restart the first train during that week after the terminal’s fin fan air coolers were damaged during Hurricane Beryl.The spokeswoman said at the time that the company plans to restart the remaining two trains “shortly thereafter”.Moreover, the spokeswoman said production levels after restart would be at “reduced rates for a period of time” as Freeport LNG continues repairs while operating the facility.Freeport LNG shipped its first cargo after Hurricane Beryl on July 22 onboard the 2024-built 174,000-cbm LNG carrier, Axios II, owned by Capital Product Partners.Of the 15 mtpa of Freeport LNG’s export capacity, 13.4 mtpa has been sold to Osaka Gas, Jera, BP, TotalEnergies, and SK E&S.

US natgas prices jump 4% on forecast for record heat (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 4% to a one-week high on Tuesday on forecasts for record-breaking heat later this week that could boost the amount of gas power generators burn to an all-time high. That price increase came despite a bearish rise in output and forecasts for lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 9.0 cents, or 4.4%, from where the contract traded on Monday to settle at $2.126 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Tuesday, their highest since July 23. That was also up about 11.5% from where lower-priced August contract closed on Monday when it was still the front-month. The August contract settled at $1.907 per mmBtu, the front-month's lowest close since April 26. Another bullish factor was an increase in the amount of gas flowing to Freeport LNG in Texas was on track to reach a preliminary 14-month high on Tuesday after the plant slowly returned to full service following a nine-day outage for Hurricane Beryl in early July. Analysts said the combination of higher gas use by power generators and rising LNG exports could cause utilities to take the unusual step of pulling gas out of storage during the first week of August. That would be the first weekly storage withdrawal in August since 2006. There was currently about 17% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Storage builds have been mostly smaller than usual in recent weeks, because several producers cut output earlier this year after futures prices dropped to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March. Higher prices in April and May, however, prompted some drillers, including EQT and Chesapeake, to slowly boost output. But with prices down about 23% so far in July, some analysts think producers may keep their drilling activities reduced for longer. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to an average of 102.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.4 bcfd in May. U.S. output hit a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the Lower 48 states will average 83.5 degrees Fahrenheit (28.6 Celsius) on Aug. 1 and 83.9 F on Aug. 2, according to LSEG data. That would top the daily record high average temperature of 83.0 F set on July 20, 2022, when power demand peaked at an all-time high of 742,600 megawatts, LSEG and federal energy data showed. To keep air conditioners humming during that record heat, LSEG forecast power generators would burn about 55.0 bcfd of gas on Aug. 2, which would top the all-time high of 54.1 bcfd reached on July 9 when generators had to burn more gas due to a lack of wind power. But the amount of wind power was on track to rise from 4% last week to around 11% this week. With more heat coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 105.2 bcfd this week to 111.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

Natural-gas prices have dropped during the hottest summer ever, thanks to Europe --Air conditioners are running at full tilt in many parts of the U.S. during what's expected to be the hottest summer on record, but the price of the natural gas used to help power them has dropped to its lowest level in three months. Consumers can, at least in part, thank Europe for that. On its expiration day Monday, the August natural-gas futures contract settled at $1.907 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down a fifth consecutive session to end at the lowest level since April 26, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The September contract, which is now the front month, edged up by 4.4% to settle Tuesday at $2.13. Based on the front month, prices have fallen 37.3% from this year's intraday high of $3.392 on Jan. 9, during the higher-demand winter heating season, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Prices have lost 15.4% year to date. Natural gas has become "a more international fuel" given the ability to transport liquified natural gas, also known as LNG, around the world, said Beth Sewell, president and chief executive officer at Quantum Gas & Power Services. "LNG shipments in Europe are down due to higher storage levels after last winter's non-event" - milder winter weather - "coupled with South and Southeast Asia's demand expected to start falling as monsoon season ramps up," she said. European natural-gas storage levels finished the natural-gas supply-withdrawal season at the end of March at 58.72% full, or 3% higher than the prior year, Sewell told MarketWatch, citing data included in an article from the Financial Times. Last winter was generally mild in Europe, and strong LNG imports and slow economic activity, along with the European Union's gas usage reduction targets, contributed to higher storage levels, she said, adding that demand for natural gas was about 20% lower in February than the 2019 to 2021 averages. European LNG imports have declined, with Europe's imports tracking at 6.56 million tons for July, the lowest since September 2021 and down from 7.21 million in June, according to a report from Reuters citing data from Kpler. All of that has helped keep more supplies in the U.S., even as the nation experienced its warmest year on record in 2023, and with temperatures tracking even higher this year to date, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers of Environmental Information. In the U.S., supplies have also been more than ample to meet consumer needs. "There's plenty of gas in inventory, thanks in part to the warm winter we had," As of the week that ended July 19, domestic natural-gas inventories were 16% above the five-year average for this time of year, according to the Energy Information Administration. It pegged total working gas in storage at 3.231 trillion cubic feet, which is 249 billion cubic feet above the year-ago level. Meanwhile, production in the Permian basin is increasing "rapidly," as oil prices remain elevated and natural gas is produced as a byproduct of drilling for oil, Monthly Permian production is up 12% over the last 12 months, "despite lower natural-gas prices," Hatfield said. The Permian now makes up 26% of total gas production, versus 23% in the prior year, he said. U.S. exports are also likely down in July, leading to more natural gas staying in the country to push prices down, because Hurricane Beryl, which made landfall earlier this month on the Texas coast, affected operations at Freeport LNG, the second-largest U.S. LNG export facility, Matt Smith, head U.S. analyst at Kpler, told MarketWatch. The Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, has historically fueled concerns over potential disruptions to energy production in the Gulf of Mexico. However, more recently, hurricanes typically haven't been that supportive for natural-gas prices, VettaFi's Morris told MarketWatch. That's because there's "relatively modest natural-gas production offshore relative to onshore" in the lower 48 states, she said. Power outages from lines damaged during hurricanes can lead to less natural-gas demand for power generation as well, she said. Industrial power loads in the U.S., meanwhile, are "starting to slip" as the country's economy "endures continued inflation and a potential recession - meaning demand for goods will start to slip," reducing energy demand, Quantum Gas & Power's Sewell said. Against this backdrop, the dip in natural-gas futures below the $2 per million Btu level may be low enough to entice some investors back into the market. Usually, natural gas does bottom near the $2 level, said Infrastructure Capital Advisors' Hatfield, but the market is headed into the "shoulder months," the period after summer when weather is milder and demand is lower. Morris warned that for the typical investor, playing natural gas can be "complicated, and even getting exposure through an [exchange-traded fund] like UNG is not straightforward." The United States Natural Gas Fund UNG was trading down nearly 31% year to date in Tuesday dealings. Hatfield said the "best opportunity to take advantage of the national gas surplus" is to invest in pipelines that transport natural gas for export and in the companies that own the liquefaction capacity. Investors can also buy individual companies or ETFs, such as Infrastructure Capital's InfraCap MLP ETF AMZA, that own shares of the largest natural-gas infrastructure companies, he said. The companies that produce or export LNG include Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG) and Chevron Corp. (CVX). When natural gas has a "1-handle," said Morris, referring to prices under $2, "it feels cheap." There is "arguably more upside risk to prices over the coming months than downside risk," she said, but natural-gas prices "could get worse before they get better." In the near term, forecasts for cooler weather and bearish weekly storage reports could put further pressure on prices, Morris said. Some producers have curtailed production in response to low prices, and that is clearly a symptom of weak prices and a weak fundamental backdrop. So if natural-gas inventories are high heading into the winter and production curtailments are reversed, it would be "difficult to see a lot of upside to prices, even if it's a cold winter," she said. "The startup of LNG export facilities in 2025 should be supportive for prices," however, and the "consensus expectation is that natural-gas prices will be higher in 2025 than in 2024," Morris said.

US natgas prices fall 4% on rising output, less heat forecast for next week (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 4% on Wednesday on rising output and forecasts for less hot weather and lower gas demand next week than previously expected. Theprice decline came despite forecasts for record-breaking heat later this week that could boost the amount of gas power generators burn to an all-time high. Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 9.0 cents, or 4.2%, to settle at $2.036 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). For the month, the contract was down about 22% after gaining about 48% during the prior three months. In the spot market, gas prices at the Waha hub in the West Texas Permian Shale turned negative for a third time in July, even as a record-breaking heat wave could boost U.S. power demand to an all-time high as homes and businesses crank up air conditioners. In the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland region, next-day power at the PJM West hub fell to $14 per megawatt hour, its lowest since April 2021. Analysts said higher gas use by power generators could cause utilities to take the unusual step of pulling gas out of storage during the second week of August. That would be the first weekly storage withdrawal in August since 2006. There was currently about 16% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. In other news, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean has a 60% chance of strengthening into a cyclone that could hit the U.S. East Coast somewhere between Florida and SouthCarolina over the next seven days. Analysts said an East Coast storm could reduce gas demand by cutting power use through outages and cooler weather. Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the Lower 48 states will average 83.5 degrees Fahrenheit (28.6 Celsius) on Aug. 1 and 83.9 F on Aug. 2, according to LSEG data. That would top the daily record high average temperature of 83.0 F set on July 20, 2022, when power demand peaked at an all-time high of 742,600 megawatts, LSEG and federal energy data showed.

US natgas prices little changed despite near-record breaking heat (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures held steady on Friday, supported by rising gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for near record-breaking heat over the next few days but pressured by rising output, formation of a likely demand-killing storm near Florida and a tremendous oversupply of gas in storage. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.1 cents to settle at $1.967 per million British thermal units. For the week, the contract declined about 2%, putting it down for a third week in a row and the seventh time in eight weeks. During those eight weeks, the contract has lost about 32%. That near record-breaking heat could boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming over the next few days. There was currently about 16% more gas in storage than is normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL Storage builds havebeen smaller than normal in 11 of the past 12 weeks because several producers cut output earlier in the year after futures prices dropped to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March. Higher prices in April and May, however, prompted some drillers to boost output. But after prices dropped 22% in July, some analysts said producers could keep their drilling activities lower for longer. In other news, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Tropical Depression 4, currently located over Cuba, would likely strengthen into a Tropical Storm on Saturday before hitting the West Coast of Florida on Sunday. Meteorologists slightly reduced their temperature forecasts for the Lower 48 states, which is part of the reason power demand did not hit an all-time high on Thursday as some analysts predicted. The forecasters now expect temperatures across the country to rise from an average of 82.6 degrees Fahrenheit (28.1 Celsius) on Thursday to 82.7 F on Friday and 82.8 F on Monday, according to LSEG data. That would remain below the daily record high average temperature of 83.0 F set on July 20, 2022, when power demand peaked at an all-time high of 742,600 megawatts, LSEG and federal energy data showed. U.S. power demand, however, could still hit a record high on Friday or Monday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.8 bcfd so far in August, up from 11.9 bcfd in July when Freeport shut for nine days for Hurricane Beryl. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

Natural gas electricity generation in the United States spiked with July heatwave U.S. power plant operators generated 6.9-MM megawatt hours (MWhr) of electricity from natural gas on a daily basis in the Lower 48 states on July 9, 2024, probably the most in history and certainly since at least January 1, 2019, when we began to collect hourly data about natural gas generation. The spike in natural gas-fired generation on July 9 was because of both high temperatures across most of the country and a steep drop in wind generation. According to the National Weather Service, most of the U.S. experienced temperatures well above average on July 9, 2024. Temperatures were particularly high on the West Coast and East Coast. Wind generation in the Lower 48 states totaled 300,000 MWhr on July 9, 2024, much lower than the 1.3-MM MWhr daily average in June 2024.

Baltimore Antis Protest Fossil Fuels Wearing Costumes Made from O&G --Marcellus Drilling News - You really can’t make this stuff up. A big picture is splashed across the pages of the Baltimore Sun website showing anti-fossil fuel nutters protesting “burning oil and gas indoors” (i.e., protesting the continued use of fossil fuels in stoves and furnaces). They were there to lobby the state Public Service Commission to disallow spending on new natural gas pipelines of any kind (local delivery, statewide transportation, etc.). Two of the protesters were dressed up as characters from The Flintstones. Both costumes were made from plastics — from oil and gas. That is, they were there protesting fossil fuels and WERE TOO STUPID to know they were wearing fossil fuels! Hilarious!!

Revolutionary research unlocks secrets of shale oil recovery - Navigating the complexities of oil extraction requires a deep understanding of the unique properties of shale—a rock formation that harbors vast reserves of oil and gas. However, the extreme tightness of these formations, marked by their tiny, intricate pore structures, has long posed significant challenges. We present the trailblazing work of Williams Ozowe, Rodney Russell, and Prof. Mukul Sharma, which promises to revolutionize industry practices with their innovative methodologies.Their study, “A Novel Experimental Approach for Dynamic Quantification of Liquid Saturation and Capillary Pressure in Shale,” unveiled at the 2020 SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, introduces a pioneering technique that dramatically enhances the precision of measuring liquid saturation and capillary pressures in shale formations. The core of this technique is the observation of the transient decay in pressure within the fluid encasing the shale during confinement, allowing for accurate estimations of the fluid volumes infiltrating the tight rock matrix.Conducted with shale samples from the Eagle Ford, Utica, and Bakken formations—regions noted for their abundant but challenging reserves—the research employed batch tests to gauge the total pressure drop across these samples. This data enabled the team to assess oil saturations and establish a “pseudo capillary pressure curve.” Understanding this curve is essential for grasping how fluids interact within the shale’s pores, particularly the dynamics between oil vapor and liquid oil.A key discovery from their research is that shales with higher permeability absorb more oil during spontaneous imbibition compared to forced imbibition, a mechanically induced process. This insight is invaluable as it suggests that recovery strategies could be specifically tailored to the properties of the shale in question. Furthermore, the study observed that larger shale particles, often containing micro-cracks that serve as additional conduits for oil, facilitate more significant oil absorption at lower pressures during forced imbibition.This research transcends academic interest; it holds practical implications that could lead to more efficient extraction techniques and ultimately, more effective exploitation of shale resources. As the oil and gas industry grapples with the intricacies of unconventional reservoirs, Ozowe and his team’s contributions provide new tools and insights that could transform operational strategies and bolster the economic viability of shale oil production.

BP Makes FID on 6th GOM Project -- BP plc has made a final investment decision (FID) on the Kaskida project in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Kaskida, which will be the oil giant’s sixth hub in the Gulf of Mexico, will have a new floating production platform with the capacity to produce 80,000 barrels of crude oil per day from six wells in its first phase. Production is expected to start in 2029, BP said in a news release. BP’s 100-percent-owned Kaskida field has discovered recoverable resources currently estimated at around 275 million barrels of oil equivalent from the initial phase. Additional wells could be drilled in future phases, subject to further evaluation. Located in the Keathley Canyon area about 250 miles southwest off the coast of New Orleans, the Kaskida project unlocks the potential future development of 10 billion barrels of discovered resources in place across the Kaskida and Tiber catchment areas, according to the release. BP noted that Kaskida is in “a prime location,” with a stable fiscal regime and access to the market. The project will be its first development in the GOM to produce from reservoirs that will require well equipment with a pressure rating of up to 20,000 pounds per square inch (20K). Advancements in 20K drilling technology, coupled with updated seismic imaging, enable the company to safely develop the field and to progress plans to develop other fields such as Tiber, which is expected to advance to a final investment decision next year, it said. “Developing Kaskida will unlock the potential of the Paleogene in the Gulf of Mexico for BP, building on our decades of experience in the region,” Gordon Birrell, BP Executive Vice President of Production and Operations, said. “Technology has and will continue to play a pivotal role in propelling Kaskida from discovery to production. Together with the other resources we have in the Paleogene, we expect it to prove to be a world-class development. Today is a critical step in realizing its potential,” Birrell added. BP said it plans to leverage existing platform and subsea equipment designs that can be replicated in future projects to drive cost efficiencies across Kaskida’s construction, commissioning and operations. “By employing an industry-led design solution, Kaskida will be simpler to construct and simpler to operate, enhancing safety and delivering greater value for BP," Andy Krieger, BP Senior Vice President for the Gulf of Mexico and Canada, said. BP discovered the Kaskida field in 2006. The company operates five platforms in the Gulf of Mexico: Argos, Atlantis, Mad Dog, Na Kika and Thunder Horse. It produced approximately 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from the GOM last year. Kaskida, Tiber and nearby discoveries combined have an estimated 10 billion barrels of discovered resources in place, according to the release.

How Dangerous Is Extreme Weather for Oil and Gas Companies In 2024? - Extreme weather can always pose a risk for oil and gas operations, Frederick J. Lawrence, the ex-Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA) Chief Economist, told Rigzone in an exclusive interview held recently. “Two weather-related events to watch include hurricanes and extreme heat or cold temperatures, in addition to other one-off weather phenomena,” he added. “In 2024, meteorologists have forecasted increased risk for the Atlantic hurricane season … This raises the prospect for weather related production outages for U.S. oil and natural gas operations,” Lawrence continued. Lawrence highlighted to Rigzone that Hurricane Beryl was impacting power supply in the Texas region even last week. The hurricane made landfall in Texas on July 8. “The storm impacted power for up to 2.7 million homes and outages continue for many as 250,000 were still without power on July 16,” Lawrence said. “The storm impacted operations at several ports in addition to the high number of power outages which also impacted demand,” he added, noting that Freeport LNG was also impacted. A Freeport LNG spokesperson told Rigzone on Monday that the company was “safely progressing the restart of … [its] liquefaction trains”. In the interview, Lawrence said the oil and gas industry must constantly improve its defense toward weather-related events and warned that more preparation and faster response will always be needed in addition to improved standards and resilience. “Companies continue to integrate real time weather insights into their operation strategy in addition to hardening plants,” he added. “Given the interconnectedness of the global oil and gas industry (with the U.S. weighing in as the top producer in addition to top oil and gas exporter), increased preparations for extreme weather events will remain a top priority given what appears to be an increased frequency and intensity of events according to groups that track weather-related incidents,” he added. “This adds risk to markets given that both global oil and natural gas demand are forecast to grow in 2024 and geopolitical instability remains high as well,” he continued. Alex Stevens, the Manager of Policy and Communications at the Institute for Energy Research (IER), told Rigzone in another exclusive interview that “hurricanes have always posed risks to oil and gas companies due to their potential impact on supply chain logistics, infrastructure, and extraction demands”. “For instance, the Gulf Coast, where over half of oil refining and most natural gas exports occur, regularly faces challenges from hurricanes that disrupt supply chain management,” he added. “Despite these ongoing threats and their historical and future impacts on the industry, continuous advancements in infrastructure and weather forecasting are key to staying ahead of predictable extreme weather events,” he continued. Stevens highlighted to Rigzone that oil and gas companies have been actively advancing technologies to mitigate these risks. “One significant development is the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) for analyzing operational data and predicting the impacts of weather events,” he pointed out. Ellen R. Wald, the President of Transversal Consulting, told Rigzone in a separate exclusive interview that “extreme weather risks vary considerably for oil and gas companies depending on their location and type of production”. “For example, the degree of danger from extreme weather for offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico is considerably higher than it is for unconventional gas drilling in the Marcellus Shale region in Pennsylvania,” Wald added. “Due to the chance of a La Nina developing in the summer and fall of 2024, extreme weather risks are much higher for offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. La Nina conditions make it more likely that hurricanes will develop and track into the Gulf of Mexico,” Wald continued. “Offshore drilling platforms in this area will have to be evacuated in preparation for hurricane conditions and then after hurricanes pass, damages will have to be assessed and repaired for oil production to recommence,” Wald stated. In a statement posted on its website back in May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warned that its National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.The organization revealed in the statement that its outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season predicts an 85 percent chance of an above normal season. NOAA highlighted in the statement that it is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms, including four to seven major hurricanes.

USA Upstream Merger Activity Hits Nearly $90B Year to Date - In a release sent to Rigzone, Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) revealed that U.S. upstream M&A activity “notched its third consecutive quarter of heightened value with more than $30 billion transacted”. “That brings year to date activity, including July deals, to nearly $90 billion and nearly $250 billion transacted in the last 12 months,” the company said in the release, adding that, “prior to the latest run of consolidation, quarterly M&A value had only topped $30 billion three times since the start of 2017”. EIR noted in the release that M&A value in the second quarter was heavily weighted toward one large transaction, with ConocoPhillips acquiring Marathon for $22.5 billion. EIR highlighted in the release that the transaction is the fifth largest U.S. upstream deal of the last decade and described it as “another historic name exiting the E&P space, as Marathon Oil has roots that reach back more than 100 years”. The rest of the top five deals during the quarter comprised SM Energy and Northern Oil & Gas’ deal with XCL Resources for $2.55 billion, Crescent Energy’s deal with SilverBow Resources for $2.10 billion, Matador Resources’ deal with Ameredev II for $1.90 billion, and TXO Partners’ deal with EMEP and Kaiser-Francis Oil for $298 million, the release outlined. “M&A momentum carried into the second quarter as pressure built on companies like ConocoPhillips, Devon Energy and SM Energy, that had previously stayed out of the market to keep pace with peers and grow in scale,” Andrew Dittmar, Principal Analyst at EIR, said in the release. “In the case of ConocoPhillips and Devon Energy, running out of inventory doesn’t appear to be as high a concern, but there is still a perception that successfully navigating the maturing phase of shale requires building resource base with M&A,” he added. “The increasing cost of buying drilling inventory, particularly in the Permian, has been the main story in upstream M&A throughout 2024,” Dittmar continued. “With the highest quality inventory selling at premium pricing, there has been a scramble for middle-tier inventory that provides strong returns even if it isn’t as economic as core Permian assets,” he went on to state. In the release, EIR noted that an advantage of buying in plays like the Eagle Ford and Williston Basin is the ability to capitalize on the potential of older horizontal wells by recompleting them with what the industry terms refracs. In its investor materials, ConocoPhillips in particular highlighted refrac potential in its Marathon Oil acquired assets, and Devon Energy called out 300 refrac candidates, EIR said in the release, adding that the opportunity to revisit older wells is something companies are paying increasing attention to, both within their existing assets and when evaluating deal opportunities. “Companies are also looking for opportunities to expand their inventory base by testing new zones,” EIR stated in the release. “Besides high prices in the Permian, SM Energy made a move into Utah’s underdeveloped Uinta Basin with its purchase of XCL Resources because the company feels it can develop new productive intervals and expand the resource base to justify its entry price,” it added. EIR noted in the release that a rising tide of inventory prices has lifted all boats for private sellers, which it said have capitalized on the market to divest more than $100 billion of assets to public companies since the start of 2022. “Among private equity firms, EnCap Investments has led the way with roughly $20 billion divested since then, including selling nearly $10 billion in portfolio companies since the start of June,” EIR stated. “Other top sellers during that time include Lime Rock, which invested in CrownRock, NGP Energy Capital and Quantum Energy Partners. The collection of companies, which are all energy specialist investment firms, reflect changes in the private equity landscape in oil and gas as large, generalist firms have pulled back,” it added. “An extremely strong market has also tempted long-held family companies like Endeavor Energy Resources, which contributed $26 billion to total private sales, to exit. An outstanding question in the industry is if more family-owned companies, specifically Mewbourne Oil which now holds the deepest bench of privately owned Permian locations following the sale of Endeavor, will also be tempted into the market,” it continued. “A sales process by Mewbourne Oil would likely draw attention from all large companies active in the Delaware, potentially including even EOG Resources which has not made a significant acquisition since it last purchased private, family-owned Yates Petroleum in the Delaware Basin in 2016,” it went on to state. There is still room for private equity companies to divest more portfolio companies, particularly in the Eagle Ford and SCOOP/STACK plays, EIR said in the release.

Occidental to Sell Delaware Basin Assets to Permian Resources for $818MM Occidental Petroleum Corp. announced Monday an agreement to sell about 29,500 net acres in the Delaware Basin to Permian Resources Corp. for around $818 million and said it had completed several divestments totaling approximately $152 million. The oil and gas and chemicals producer launched a $4.5 billion–$6 billion divestiture program when it announced its acquisition of Permian Basin competitor CrownRock LP late last year. The divestitures help Houston, Texas-based Occidental manage debt as it seeks more borrowings to fund the cash-and-stock purchase, announced with a $12 billion price. Warren Buffett-backed Occidental has so far announced or completed $970 million worth of acquisitions this year, it said in a statement announcing the new sale to Permian Resources. The transaction with Midland, Texas-based Permian Resources involves about 27,500 acres on the Texas side of the Delaware Basin and about 2,000 acres on the New Mexico side. The assets are expected to add 15,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day to Permian Resources’ production in the fourth quarter of 2024. The parties expect to close the transaction in the third quarter, subject to customary conditions.

Texas Crude Oil Pipelines Near Full Capacity, Potential Export Constraints Near - Pipelines transporting crude from America's top-producing shale basin to major export hubs in Texas are nearing capacity limits. With US crude production hitting record highs, these pipeline constraints could throttle US oil exports at a time when uncertainty looms in the energy and geopolitical spaces. Bloomberg cites new data from energy researcher East Daley Analytics, which says major pipelines between the Permian Basin and the Port of Corpus Christi pipeline are currently more than 90% full. That number could easily rise to 94% or 95% by the second half of 2025. Bloomberg pointed out, "While output is set to keep growing, it will be difficult for that incremental output to reach international buyers without ample pipeline space." Some of this crude will likely be redirected to the Houston area to ease congestion. Specifically, OneOK's Longhorn and BridgeTex pipelines could serve as alternative routes for transporting crude to the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, Enbridge's Gray Oak pipeline expansion could help alleviate some of the bottlenecks in the Corpus Christi route. "Still, East Daley estimates even the company's goal of increasing capacity on the line by 120,000 barrels per day won't bring overall regional utilization below 90%," Bloomberg said. With the US leading the world in crude oil production... Export limitations on US energy products will spell disaster for the EU and other major trading partners that heavily rely on the US more than ever.

Texas crude oil pipelines full to the brim, getting worse— Crude oil pipelines connecting the busiest Texas oil fields to a critical export hub across the state are nearly out of space, threatening to cap US oil exports at a time when the world needs more. Key pipelines that transport barrels produced in the Permian Basin to the Port of Corpus Christi are more than 90% full, and companies that operate some of these lines say the congestion is likely to get worse. By the second half of 2025, the pipes could be 94% or 95% full, estimates researcher East Daley Analytics. Demand for the limited pipeline space comes at a time when the US is producing more crude oil than any other nation, with output set to hit a new record next year. The Permian region, one of the top producing shale basins in the world, accounts for nearly half of all US oil production. While output is set to keep growing, it will be difficult for that incremental output to reach international buyers without ample pipeline space. If growth in the US’s crude exports stalls, it threatens to create pockets of oversupply domestically and exacerbate supply tightness in other regions of the world, which have come to rely on US barrels more than ever after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and OPEC+ supply curbs. Demand from China and the price of Brent crude will all play a role as well in the medium-term supply-demand balance, said Kristy Oleszek, East Daley’s director of energy analytics. To be sure, some of the oil may be rerouted to the Houston area instead, alleviating some congestion. OneOK’s Longhorn and BridgeTex pipelines in particular could offer alternative options to get barrels down to the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, a plan to expand Enbridge Inc.’s Gray Oak pipeline system will likely reduce some bottlenecks to Corpus Christi. Still, East Daley estimates even the company’s goal of increasing capacity on the line by 120,000 barrels per day won’t bring overall regional utilization below 90%. When asked about the expansion, Enbridge pointed to its upcoming earnings call on Friday that might provide more information.

West Texas hit by over 100 earthquakes in a week, state of disaster declared - west texas earthquakes july 2024 More than 100 earthquakes struck West Texas between July 22 to 29, 2024, prompting the declaration of a state of disaster. The strongest in the series thus far was M5.1 on July 26 — making it the 6th strongest earthquake in Texas history. The earthquakes are caused by activities related to oil and gas extraction. There have been 4 earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 or higher, with the highest registered as M5.1 on the morning of July 26 — making it the 6th strongest in the history of Texas. The quake hit at a depth of 3.3 km (2 miles) and was located 17 km (10.5 miles) NNE of Hermleigh. The magnitude of the earthquakes is considered strong for the region. While it is unlikely for a very strong earthquake to hit the area, it cannot be ruled out. This area has seen a significant increase in earthquake activity since 2019, and USGS scientists believe it is linked to enhanced recovery techniques used in depleted oil fields to economically extract the most difficult-to-get oil and natural gas. “We can say with confidence that these are related to oil and gas extractions,” said Justin Rubinstein, a geophysicist with the USGS in Menlo Park, California. The Scurry County Judge has declared a state of disaster due to increased seismic activity, structural damage, safety concerns, and resource mobilization. In a statement released on Monday morning, July 29, the Railroad Commission of Texas reported on its investigation into the earthquakes. To reduce seismicity possibly caused by the underground injection of produced water, several operators in the area have converted deep saltwater disposal wells to shallow saltwater disposal wells within the last year. Disposal wells are used to dispose of produced water, which is water that comes out from wells during oil and gas production. RRC inspectors have been inspecting saltwater disposal wells within a 4 km (2.5 miles) cluster of earthquakes, and they will evaluate the next steps to mitigate earthquakes. The commission said it will continue to take necessary measures to protect the environment and residents in the area.

Texas Oil Regulator Investigating Earthquakes --The Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) has been investigating earthquakes that occurred recently in the Camp Springs area along the Fisher/Scurry County line in West Texas, an RRC spokesperson told Rigzone. “In efforts to reduce seismicity possibly caused by underground injection of produced water, several operators in the area have converted deep saltwater disposal wells to shallow saltwater disposal wells within the last year,” the spokesperson told Rigzone late Friday, noting that “disposal wells are used to dispose produced water, which is water that comes out from wells during oil and gas production”. “RRC inspectors are out inspecting saltwater disposal wells within two and a half miles of the cluster of earthquakes this week [week commencing July 22] and the RRC will evaluate next steps that can be taken to mitigate earthquakes,” the spokesperson added. “We’ll continue to take measures necessary to protect the environment and residents in the area,” the RRC spokesperson went on to state. On July 26, a 5.1 magnitude earthquake occurred at 3.3 km depth, 17 km north northeast of Hermleigh, Texas, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) website shows. “This event is identified as the potential mainshock of an earthquake sequence,” the site states. On July 23, a 4.9 magnitude earthquake occurred at 3.2 km depth, 17 km north northeast of Hermleigh, Texas, according to the site. The RRC is the state agency with primary regulatory jurisdiction over the oil and natural gas industry, pipeline transporters, natural gas and hazardous liquid pipeline industry, natural gas utilities, the LP-gas industry, critical natural gas infrastructure, and coal and uranium surface mining operations, the RRC website states. In a statement posted on its site earlier this month, the RRC noted that its geologists and engineers will work with environmental experts from other states “to analyze an important agency program that protects underground sources of drinking water”. “The RRC has requested the Groundwater Protection Council (GWPC), a respected organization of national groundwater experts, conduct an independent peer review of its Class II Underground Injection Control (UIC) program,” that statement said. Class II injection wells are used for oil and gas operations such as enhanced oil recovery, disposal of produced water, and underground hydrocarbon storage, the RRC highlighted in the statement, adding that the GWPC is comprised of more than 30 ground water and environmental regulatory agencies in states spanning coast to coast “The GWPC’s peer reviews include, but are not limited to, an evaluation of the state’s rules, permit application workflows, permit review criteria, protection of underground drinking water, well inspection practices, program funding, and data management,” the RRC said in the statement. “The RRC’s UIC program has been commended by federal regulators in recent years. The Environmental Protection Agency’s annual evaluations have highlighted RRC’s strong oversight of injection wells in protecting underground sources of drinking water and our continuing efforts to mitigate seismicity in Texas,” it added.

Should Companies Get Paid When Governments Phase Out Fossil Fuels? They Already Are - Before the sun set on his inauguration day, Joe Biden reversed a raft of his predecessor’s deregulation policies with the stroke of a pen. Among them was an order revoking the permit for the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline. Canceling the project was a campaign pledge to address the climate crisis. But looming over that decision was the risk that an obscure but powerful international legal system could force the United States to pay billions of dollars to Keystone XL’s Canadian developer, TC Energy. That system—embedded in thousands of trade and investment treaties—allows corporations to drag governments before panels of arbitrators, usually behind closed doors. Governments have been ordered to pay billions of dollars in damages to oil and mining companies for violating those treaties. While the system was intended to protect foreign investors from unfair treatment or asset seizure, many environmental advocates, lawyers and politicians say it is now being used to win awards from governments that enact new environmental regulations or raise taxes on polluting industries.Increasingly, these critics warn the system threatens climate action by punishing governments that phase out fossil fuels. The $15 billion claim TC Energy brought against the United States was one of the largest-ever in response to a climate policy. The company lost earlier this month, but the case was dismissed on a technicality and its outcome says nothing about other pending cases around the world.Australia, Canada, Colombia and Slovenia are facing tens of billions of dollars in claims from companies for phasing out coal power plants, rejecting mining licenses or disallowing liquefied natural gas permits. In 2022, Italy was ordered to pay a British oil company roughly $200 million after offshore drilling restrictions upended the firm’s development plans. In other countries, the system set up for these claims—investor-state dispute settlement, or ISDS—has driven up costs of closing coal power plants, prevented governments from canceling oil and gas licenses or otherwise impeded efforts to reduce fossil fuel use, government ministers and researchers say. Companies even win awards despite leaving behind environmental contamination, violating human rights or breaking national laws. The ISDS system is uniquely daunting for governments because arbitrators overseeing the cases can award compensation not just for real losses but also for unearned, expected future profits. It’s a key reason awards can balloon into the billions of dollars. Governments already face numerous practical and political obstacles as they attempt to move away from fossil fuels, said Canadian lawyer and professor Gus Van Harten, who has studied ISDS’s evolution for decades. “This system is providing an unwarranted and unexpected further minefield.” As Mary Robinson, former president of Ireland, put it in a speech this year: “I cannot overstate just how perverse this is.”A lucky break on timing may be all that saved the U.S. from a multi-billion dollar loss. And in an ironic turn, Keystone XL supporter Donald Trump delivered that break.TC Energy’s case was based on part of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Like thousands of other trade and investment treaties, it included an ISDS section that provided special rights to foreign investors. The Trump administration largely removed ISDS from NAFTA’s successor treaty, arguing that it impinged on U.S. sovereignty and encouraged American companies to invest abroad.Because the new agreement had already gone into effect by the time Biden revoked the permit, the arbitrators overseeing the case determined the claim was invalid, according to TC Energy. The ruling has not yet been released.ISDS cases are heard by panels of three arbitrators. Generally, the parties each pick one and agree on the third. Those arbitrators are typically lawyers from corporate law firms, and their awards are not subject to appeal. They also do not have to follow precedent set in other rulings, leading to unpredictable and conflicting decisions that make it difficult for governments to know what acts might violate treaties. That means a separate NAFTA claim over Keystone XL, filed by the Alberta government after it invested in the project, could go the other way. Alberta is seeking at least $1 billion.

Campaign funds and charity help Big Oil wield power in California - LA Times -- In the weeks before California lawmakers left Sacramento for their summer recess, more than a dozen environmental bills died amid heavy industry opposition in a Legislature overwhelmingly controlled by Democrats.One would have held oil companies liable for respiratory illness in children who live near their drilling sites. Another would have asked voters to declare a “right to clean water and air” in California. Others would have divested public employee retirement funds from fossil fuels, or stopped state agencies from purchasing plastic bottles.Legislators say there were many factors in these bills’ demise — the state’s $45-billion budget deficit, for instance, and several lawmakers being out with COVID-19 just before a key deadline.But there was another common thread: Industries that opposed these bills have a record of financially supporting the Legislature’s moderate Democrats through a mix of campaign contributions and donations to the politicians’ favored charities. In the last two election cycles, Chevron spent nearly $10 million on California races, according to data from the secretary of State. Valero spent another $3.9 million, the data show, and Marathon Petroleum spent $3.3 million. A quarter of their donations to legislative candidates went to Democrats and millions more went to committees that support them.The companies also routinely make charitable donations at the behest of politicians, which can serve as another way to curry favor. Between 2021 and 2023, Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, Calpine, Phillips 66 and the Western States Petroleum Assn. combined gave more than $800,000 to nonprofit groups at the request of state lawmakers, according to data from California’s Fair Political Practices Commission. More than half of this money came from Chevron, which gave more than $440,000.“What big money in politics does is block legislation. It maintains the status quo. And I’m very willing to say that is not good for California,” said Assemblymember Steve Bennett (D–Ventura), whose bill to limit plastic purchases was among those that died quietly in May when it didn’t come up for a vote by a critical midyear deadline.In June, Assemblymember Isaac Bryan (D–Los Angeles) shelved a constitutional amendment to establish a right to a clean environment for Californians, vowing to reintroduce an improved version next year. The petroleum association had lobbied against it and the California Chamber of Commerce, whose board includes executives from Chevron and other energy companies, had branded it a “Job Killer,” a label that often impedes support from business-friendly legislators.Also in June, Sen. Lena Gonzalez (D–Long Beach) announced she wouldn’t advance her bill to divest public employee retirement funds from the fossil fuel industry. SB 252 faced heavy opposition from the oil industry, and multiple moderate Democrats did not support it on the Senate floor. Gonzalez said in a statement that her decision to hold the bill was because of committee amendments that would have weakened it.In a Legislature generally known as one of the most progressive in the nation, where Democrats hold a supermajority and fighting climate change has been a priority, moderate Democrats can serve as a key swing vote that determines how far left California will go. While environmentalists see them as beholden to the corporations that support their campaigns, business leaders see moderate Democrats as a balancing force in a Capitol where one party has all the control.“That middle group is really important to policy,” said Kevin Slagle, a vice president of the Western States Petroleum Assn., which lobbies for oil companies at the Capitol.“They play an important role … in keeping policy going too far one way or the other.”

ConocoPhillips Working Toward ‘Seamless Transition’ as Marathon Oil Takeover Nears Closing - ConocoPhillips said Thursday that it would earmark more spending this year to cover rising costs across its U.S. onshore portfolio, more partner-operated activity and higher expenses in Alaska as it advances the Willow oil project there. Increased transportation and processing costs, along with inflationary pressures in the Lower 48, prompted the company to raise its full-year operating cost guidance to $9.2-9.3 billion from the previous range of $8.9-9.1. Capital expenditures (capex) guidance also increased to $11.5 billion from a previous range of $11-11.5 billion. The initial capex guidance range “included a number of uncertainties, including Willow,” said Andy O’Brien, senior vice president of strategy, commercial, sustainability and technology.

Alaska Greenlights LNG Import Plan as Cook Inlet Natural Gas Production Wanes - Alaska’s utility and pipeline regulator supported LNG imports as a “public necessity” as the state’s largest natural gas service provider progresses plans to stave off an expected supply shortfall. Cook Inlet annualized natural gas volumes bar chart. The Regulatory Commission of Alaska (RCA) granted conditional approval to Alaska Pipeline Co. (APLC), a unit of Enstar Natural Gas Co., to allow it to expand its service area. It also approved a 16-mile extension to the existing 20-inch diameter Beluga Pipeline, according to a filing. The extension is part of Enstar plans for potentially supplementing production from Alaska’s Cook Inlet Basin with imports via a floating liquefied natural gas import terminal at Port MacKenzie.

Shell’s Sawan Touts Ever-Stronger Global Natural Gas Portfolio, as LNG Canada Nears Start Up - Shell plc, the world’s No. 1 LNG trader, extended its prowess during the second quarter by making some big deals to secure more natural gas as demand continues to increase. Shell's estimated peak production from new projects. CEO Wael Sawan, who helmed a webcast to discuss quarterly performance, noted that a year ago, management committed to advancing three guiding principles regarding performance, discipline and simplification. “Today, I hope you can see this track record developing and gathering momentum,” he said.

YPF, Petronas Select Río Negro for LNG Project as ‘Largest Investment in Argentine History’ - Argentina’s 51% state-owned oil and gas company YPF SA, in partnership with Malaysian national oil company Petronas, have settled on the northern edge of Patagonia for their planned LNG export project. “After an extensive technical and economic evaluation process undertaken by the YPF and Petronas teams we came to the conclusion that the most advantageous place for the project is Sierra Grande in the province of Río Negro,” executives said in a joint statement. Río Negro, considered to be in northern Patagonia, borders Neuquén, home to the vast majority of the natural gas-rich Vaca Muerta shale formation. The companies said the proximity to the unconventional gas fields, and the shorter pipelines, would be needed to transport the feed gas to the facilities.

Oil and gas extraction causes pollution to spike 10,000% --North Sea oil and gas extraction can cause pollution to spike by more than 10,000% within half a kilometer around off-shore sites, a study has found. The University of Essex research has uncovered the true impact on Britain's seabed life—with the number ofspecies plummeting nearly 30% near platforms.The findings, published in Science of The Total Environment, come in the face of continued global fossil fuel exploration.The study discovered pollutants such as hydrocarbons were up to 10,613% higher within 500 m of the platforms than unimpacted, farther away sites.And heavy metals—such as lead, copper, and nickel—were 455% higher within the same distance.Contaminants have been accumulating for decades around platforms and this study shows a direct impact on marine invertebrates—which play a key role in underwater ecosystems, acting as food for larger animals such as fish. The study examined data for 4,216 species collected from 1981 to 2012 at nine oil and gas platforms off the coast of Scotland and England and observed a general decrease in the number of species and individuals in the contaminated sediments.Food webs—which describe the network of feeding interactions between species in an ecosystem—also became simpler and smaller from sediments within 500 m of oil and gas platforms.Large predators like starfish disappeared closer to the platforms with smaller organisms like worms able to thrive in the contaminated sediment, "We've known for a while that hydrocarbon extraction can impact biodiversity, but this is the first time consistent trends have been found across several platforms."There were clear changes in community diversity and composition, with a general decrease in the number and type of species near the platforms after oil and gas production began."We were surprised at how simple the food web is close to the rig, with larger predators being more vulnerable to the changes than other species."Chen used chemical data to define an impact zone within 500 m of a platform, a buffer zone within 500 m–1500 m, and unimpacted areas beyond that.He then examined biological samples from each zone that were taken before and after production of oil and gas commenced at each platform between 1981 and 2012.They showed the impact sites had a 28% decline in species richness, with fewer food web connections closer to platforms.

BP Holding Natural Gas Output Steady, with Aim to Build Cash Flow Over Volumes --With a plethora of global natural gas and oil opportunities from which to pick and choose, BP plc wants to build volumes, but the priority still continues to be value, CEO Murray Auchincloss said Tuesday. NGI's global natural gas futures settles chart Expand Speaking with the executive team from London, Auchincloss laid out the objectives during a wide ranging quarterly discussion with analysts. The integrated major, the top natural gas trader in North America, also is one of the leading gas producers in the Haynesville Shale. Don’t look for gas activity to rise in the near term, though. BP has cut its Haynesville rig count to one from three a year ago.

German LNG Buyers Skip Import Capacity Auction Amid Falling Prices, Natural Gas Demand - State-owned LNG terminal operator Deutsche Energy Terminal GmbH (DET) reported it received no bids for capacity during its latest contracting period, attributing the lack of interest to low natural gas prices in Europe. DET’s three marketing rounds took place between June 13 and July 3 for regasification capacity at the Brunsbüttel and Wilhelmshaven facilities. It offered short-term contracts for 2025 and long-term agreements for 2025-2029. DET spokesperson Dirk Lindgens told NGI that marketing rounds without bids are not unusual and are a part of market behavior.

Russia-Ukraine Natural Gas Transit Expiration Adds More Supply Uncertainty for Europe - The five-year natural gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine is due to expire at the end of the year, halting around 13.7 billion cubic meters (Bcm) of supply the European Union (EU) would need to replace with additional Norwegian pipeline and LNG imports to meet current demand. NGI's European Union Gas storage chart. Prior to Russia invading Ukraine in 2022, Europe received nearly 150 Bcm of Russian pipeline gas through several transit points. But, as EU members moved to shrink reliance on Russian imports and sections of the Nord Stream system remained filled with seawater, pipeline shipments to Europe shrank to 14 Bcm last year. The majority of those remaining gas volumes were shipped through Ukraine’s pipeline network under the existing transit agreement. Rystad Energy Gas and LNG analyst Christoph Halser said without another third party to replace supplies shipped via Ukraine, “the EU will need about 7.2 Bcm of gas to be sourced from the liquified natural gas market.”

Ukraine Earns Rebuke From an EU Ally Over Lukoil Oil Transit Ban - Ukraine should consider the implications of moves like its recent transit ban of crude from a major Russian supplier on its neighbors such as Hungary and Slovakia, Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel said on Tuesday. The rebuke of Kyiv by a European partner over an escalating row comes after Budapest warned the country may face fuel shortages as early as September and threatened to retaliate. Speaking at a news conference in Latvia on Tuesday, Bettel said that if such moves affect consumers in other nations then “other countries have to be around the table too or at least be informed.” “We should avoid to create new tensions where we make it too easy for other countries, and especially this time for Hungary and Slovakia to say that they don’t agree,” Bettel said. That in turn could lead to a tit-for-tat of sanctions and restrictions between the countries, said the Luxembourg foreign minister. Ukraine in June toughened sanctions against Lukoil PJSC, effectively prohibiting the Russian oil company from using the war-torn country as a transit route to some customers in central Europe. Hungary has asked the European Union to help broker a solution with Kyiv. Ukraine is in close contact with the European Commission and ready to join consultations to resolve the dispute if the EU’s executive decides on them, foreign ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said on Tuesday. “We’re in constant contact with the Slovak side — at the level of prime ministers but also at other ministries and we are studying incoming proposals,” he told reporters in Kyiv, without elaborating on the progress in talks with Budapest. Orban, who maintains close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, antagonized Ukraine and its western allies with a self-styled “peace mission” from Moscow to Beijing. Since the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion more than two years ago, the Hungarian leader has repeatedly sought to delay the approval of the EU’s aid for Kyiv and sanctions on Russia. Bettel also criticized Orban’s trip as the “middle finger to the Ukrainians fighting, fighting on the ground against Russian aggression.” “When you want peace you start with the victims and you don’t just start with the aggressors,” he said.

Europe Needs COP29 Host Azerbaijan to Keep Exporting Fossil Fuels -- From the city of Baku’s shoreline along the Caspian Sea, amid restaurants and high end hotels, Azerbaijan’s relationship with fossil fuels is plain to see by the rigs and tankers that dot the horizon. Azerbaijan, one of the birthplaces of the modern fossil fuel industry, will become another oil and gas exporter tasked with hosting the annual round of United Nations climate talks when delegates and world leaders descend on COP29 in Baku this November. The former Soviet republic of 10 million people follows the United Arab Emirates, which held the event last year. To climate activists, countries like Azerbaijan and the UAE, dependent on oil and gas export revenues for their economic well being, are compromised diplomatic brokers. But a recent visit to Baku reveals a more nuanced picture: Azeri officials say the country fully accepts the logic of the energy transition and the need to lower carbon emissions. The trouble is neighbors in Europe, who are desperate to buy more of the country’s gas, need them to remain fossil fuel producers. For Baku’s European customers, the priority has been securing alternatives to Russian gas supplies ever since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This has meant tapping into much more gas from Azerbaijan’s fields under the Caspian. Europe imported 11.8 billion cubic meters of gas from Azerbaijan last year and that’s expected to increase to 13 bcm this year. Azerbaijan in 2022 signed a memorandum of understanding with the European Commission to double its gas exports to Europe to 20 billion cubic meters by 2027. There are also talks underway about the option to pump Azeri gas into another pipeline that runs via Ukraine in a attempt to keep supplies flowing to Europe without buying from Russia. In an interview at Baku Energy Week in early June, Deputy Energy Minister Orxan Zeynalov said there was no indication that European countries, Georgia or Turkey would stop buying its gas. All of this seems to fly in the face of an agreement nearly 200 countries made at COP28 in Dubai last year to phase out the use of fossil fuels. The deal was hailed as a landmark achievement, though it also included the caveat that gas will be key to helping countries shift to renewables. This is an important proviso for countries like Azerbaijan, which says it’s taking steps to green its economy despite the increasing demand for fossil fuels. In an interview in Baku, Mukhtar Babayev, the former oil executive who is now environment minister and president of COP29, pointed to the growing number of hybrid and pure electric cars driving around the capital, saying demand for them has grown so much that charging is starting to disrupt the grid. “Now the country has turned the economy to green growth,” he said. Socar, its state run energy company, is planning to become net zero by 2050; the government has signed memorandums of understanding to build 27 gigawatts of new wind and solar farms, said Kamran Huseynov, deputy director at the state run Azerbaijan Renewable Energy Agency, in an interview. This would add more than three times Azerbaijan’s total installed electricity generation capacity today. There are also speculative plans to install a fiber optic cable to export renewable electricity to the European Union, while excess wind and solar power would be used to create hydrogen or green ammonia for export too. “We want to do this, it’s not like we’re being forced by EU rules,” said Zeynalov, the deputy energy minister. The idea is that the pipelines that run more than 2,000 miles from Baku to southern Italy may one day be exporting green gas such as e-methane to help the European Union meet its net zero goal.

Asia's LNG imports shift higher as Europe's fades - Asia continues to draw liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Europe with imports in July rising to the most in six months, even as spot prices stayed near seven-month highs. The top-importing region is on track for arrivals of 24.85 metric MMt of the super-chilled fuel, up from 22.60 MMt in June and the highest since January's 26.19 MMt, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. In contrast, Europe's imports are tracking at 6.56 MMt for July, the lowest since September 2021 and down from 7.21 MMt in June. Europe's LNG imports have declined every month since December, when they were 11.75 MMt, or almost double the level expected for July. Much of the reason for the shift in global LNG flows can be attributed to Asia's higher price, with spot cargoes for delivery to North Asia LNG-AS being assessed at $12/MMBtu in the week to July 26. This was down from the previous week's $12.20/MMBtu, but still close to the $12.60 for the week to June 21, which was the highest price since mid-December. The benchmark Dutch contract ended at €32.60 per megawatt hour (MWh) on July 26, which is equivalent to $10.30/MMBtu, or a discount of 14.2% to the Asian spot price. The Asian spot price is currently close to the sweet spot of being high enough to draw cargoes to the region, but not quite at levels to start crimping demand in price-sensitive buyers such as China and India. China, the world's biggest LNG buyer, is on track for imports of 6.41 MMt in July, up from 5.80 MMt in June and the highest since April, according to Kpler. India, Asia's fourth-biggest LNG importer, is forecast to see arrivals of 2.61 MMt in July, up from 2.60 MMt in June and the most since October 2020. In some ways the ongoing strength in India's LNG imports are surprising, as the South Asian country tends to cut back in the face of higher prices. The spot price has been rallying since its 2024 low of $8.30/MMBtu in early March, and has been above $10 since mid-April, a level that has in the past seen India, and even China, cut back on spot purchases as LNG becomes uncompetitive in their domestic markets. It's likely that India's strong economic growth is keeping LNG demand robust, especially since the fuel is generally used in industrial processes rather than for electricity generation. Similarly, China's appetite for LNG is being boosted by its use as a transport fuel, with research from consultants Wood Mackenzie showing sales of LNG-powered heavy vehicles rose from below 10% of the market to as much as 30% by the end of 2023. Japan, the world's second-biggest LNG buyer, also saw solid imports in July, with Kpler tracking 5.62 MMt, up from 4.75 MMt in June and the highest since March. However, Japan's imports may ease in coming months as the summer demand peak passes and inventories remain elevated, with stocks held by major utilities rising to 2.35 MMt by July 21, which is 21% higher than a year earlier, and 7% above the five-year average of 2.19 MMt. The strength in Asia's demand can be readily seen in the import data from the U.S. and Qatar, the world's top and third biggest LNG shippers, and also swing suppliers to both Europe and Asia. Asia's imports from the U.S. are expected at 3.41 MMt in July, second only to the record high of 3.75 MMt from February 2021 and up from 2.71 MMt in June. In contrast, Europe's imports from the U.S. are forecast at 2.25 MMt, down from 2.85 MMt in June and the lowest since November 2021. Asia's imports from Qatar are forecast at 6.09 MMt, up from 5.23 MMt in June and the highest since January. Europe's imports from Qatar are estimated at 740,000 t in July, down from June's 1.05 MMt and the weakest since September.

Pacific LNG shipping rates rise to $73,000 per day, European prices down - Pacific spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) freight rates continued to increase this week, while European prices decreased compared to the week before. Last week, Pacific rates experienced a $10,500 increase and Atlantic rates decreased. “Spark30s Atlantic rates continued to decrease for the third consecutive week, falling by $4,250 to $75,000 per day and reducing by $14,500 since the reported Freeport LNG outages on July 7th,” Qasim Afghan, Spark’s commercial analyst told LNG Prime on Friday. In comparison, Spark25S Pacific rates experienced a fifth consecutive weekly increase, rising by $5,500 to $72,750 per day, he said. “As a result, the Atlantic-Pacific basin spread has reduced from a Summer record high of $37,250 down to $2,250, as Spark25S Pacific rates experience an expected seasonal rally whilst Spark30S Atlantic rates continue to stall,” Afghan said. In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month was down compared to the prior week.“The SparkNWE DES LNG front month price for August delivery is assessed at $9.980/MMBtu and at a $0.13/MMBtu discount to the TTF,” Afghan said.“This is a $0.317/MMBtu week-on-week decrease in SparkNWE DES LNG price,” he said.Data by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) shows that volumes in gas storages in the EU continued to rise and were 83.52 percent full on July 24.Gas storages were 81.83 percent full on July 17, and 83.91 percent full on July 24 last year.In Asia, JKM, the price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia, for September settled at $12.075/MMBtu on Thursday.Last week, JKM for September settled at 12.115/MMBtu on Friday.Front month JKM dropped this week to 12.095/MMBtu on Monday, 12.010/MMBtu on Tuesday, and it rose to 12.235/MMBtu on Wednesday.US LNG exports reached 21 shipments in the week ending July 24, and pipeline deliveries to US terminals increased compared to the week before, according to the Energy Information Administration.Freeport LNG, south of Houston, continued to ramp-up operations this week according to Gulf South Pipeline Company and Texas Eastern Transmission following a period of being offline due to Hurricane Beryl.Last weekend, Freeport LNG has shipped the first cargo from its LNG export plant since the shutdown on July 7. In June, Egyptian General Petroleum Corp., the parent company of EGAS, awarded a total of 20 LNG cargoes with the awardees reportedly including TotalEnergies, BP, Vitol, Trafigura, and Aramco. Several reports said this week that EGAS has issued a new tender for five LNG cargoes. Kpler said on Thursday that EGAS has issued its fourth summer tender to satisfy high seasonal gas demand which forced it to switch from an exporter to an importer of LNG. The tender closes on July 29 and the cargoes will be delivered to both Egypt’s Ain Sokhna and Jordan’s Aqaba in mid- and late-August and September, Kpler said.

Asia, Industrials Tug Global LNG Demand Above Historical Levels, but Growth is ‘Fragile,’ IEA Says - Global natural gas demand accelerated during the first half of the year at a rate well above the historical average, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest quarterly report. LNG supply cycles vs demand graph. IEA said initial estimates indicated that global gas demand increased by 3% year/year from January to June, higher than the historical rate of 2% over the same period between 2010 and 2020. The trend also was a reversal from tepid demand growth in recent years after the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted a global rebalancing of energy flows. Demand growth was largely supported by Asia, with China and India both increasing consumption by 10% year/year. IEA added that higher gas use in industry contributed to almost 65% of global demand growth during the first half of 2024.

Oman LNG to boost capacity with new train - State-owned Oman LNG plans to add a new liquefaction train at its three-train Qalhat complex by 2029.Oman’s Ministry of Energy and Minerals said in a statement on Saturday the new train will have a capacity of 3.8 million metric tonnes per year.“The strategic expansion will boost Oman’s production of LNG to 15.2 mtpa, optimize the utilization of the country’s available discovered volumes of natural gas resources, while enhancing its LNG export capabilities,” it said.According to the statement, Oman’s government is now progressing with finalizing the front-end engineering design (FEED) study for this new LNG train project.This “critical step” is expected to pave the way for the project’s final investment decision (FID), it said.The project is expected to be completed and operational by 2029, helping to meet the growing global demand for LNG, the statement said.Oman LNG delivered 173 cargoes of LNG from its Qalhat complex in 2023, down by three cargoes compared to the year before, while its revenue decreased by 15.5 percent year-on-year to $4.9 billion.Oman LNG delivered 176 cargoes in 2022, 163 in 2021, 155 in 2020, and 166 in 2019.According to Oman LNG’s 2023 annual report, out of the 173 LNG cargoes delivered last year 94 percent were contracted cargoes and 6 percent were spot supplies.Oman produced 11.5 mtpa of LNG, exceeding the enhanced nameplate capacity. This compares to 11.5 mtpa in 2022, 10.6 mtpa in 2021, 10.2 mtpa in 2020, and 10.7 mtpa in 2019.Oman LNG operates three liquefaction trains at its site in Qalhat near Sur and the trains maintained an “exceptionally high level”, standing at 95 percent, alongside a plant utilization rate of 92 percent last year, Oman LNG previously said.

Oman plans third LNG train, boosting domestic production to more than 15 MMtpy - Oman is advancing its commitment to bolster global energy security with plans to develop an additional 3.8-MMtpy LNG train at the Qalhat Industrial Complex in South Sharqiyah Governorate. This strategic expansion aims to increase Oman's LNG production capacity to 15.2 MMtpy, utilizing its abundant natural gas resources more efficiently and enhancing export capabilities. Currently in the final stages of the front-end engineering design (FEED) study, this project underlines Oman's ambition to consolidate its role as a prominent global LNG producer. Scheduled for completion by 2029, the initiative not only meets rising international LNG demand but also supports Oman's economic diversification and sustainability goals.

Malaysia's Biggest State Starts Takeover of Gas Assets in Autonomy Push --Malaysia’s biggest state, Sarawak, is set to take control of its natural gas assets from federal government-run companies, as its campaign for economic autonomy bears fruit in the Southeast Asian country’s fragile political landscape. The Borneo island state’s oil firm, Petroleum Sarawak Bhd., last week signed its first gas sale agreements. It is effectively starting a take-over of the gas distribution network in Sarawak that’s controlled by Malaysian oil giant Petroliam Nasional Bhd. Petronas, which answers only to the prime minister, is asking for more time before it cedes full control. It wants to finalize gas supply agreements with Sarawak first to keep its liquefied natural gas complex running in the state — one of the biggest in the world at 30 million metric tons a year. “We said we respect their concern because we have equity in the LNG plants,” Sarawak Premier Abang Johari Openg was cited as saying by the News Straits Times newspaper this week. “The discussions must be finalized by October 1, otherwise, we will go ahead with the arrangement.” The state has long demanded for higher oil and gas royalties from Petronas, the custodian of Malaysia’s energy reserves, only to be rebuffed or given small increments at best. The renewed push for autonomy began after the November 2022 elections since Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim now depends on the backing of Abang Johari and the Sarawak-based parties he leads to keep a government coalition intact. The Prime Minister’s Office and the Sarawak Premier’s Office didn’t respond to Bloomberg requests for comment. Petronas, whose sole shareholder is the federal government, now has to make concessions. It will soon cede control of the gas distribution network in Sarawak for the first time in its history, and analysts say it could lead to more negotiations with the state over revenue sharing, operational control and regulatory oversight. “The relationship with Petronas might become more complex,” said Awang Azman Awang Pawi, an associate professor at Universiti of Malaya, who is from Sarawak. “It might create tension, but both parties might seek a cooperative framework to avoid disrupting the industry.” The impact on earnings for Petronas, a major source of revenue to the Malaysian government, is uncertain. RHB Research said in a July 22 note that the oil firm could lose some earning power given the gas segment accounts for about 38 percent of Petronas’ headline profit last year. Petronas said it was in discussions to achieve a mutual resolution on the gas distribution in Sarawak. The firm told Bloomberg in a statement that it “will continue to be a strategic partner to Sarawak to preserve a thriving and conducive investment climate in Malaysia.” A lot is at stake for Sarawak, which is almost as big as mainland Malaysia and has oil and gas fields in the disputed South China Sea. Abang Johari had forecast the value of Sarawak’s energy sector will surpass 60 billion ringgit ($13 billion) by the end of the decade, up from the 10 billion ringgit it currently collects just in royalties from Petronas, according to a report. By next year, Sarawak will become the owner-operator of the port where the Petronas LNG complex sits, once the Malaysian parliament passes legislation to dissolve the federal government-owned Bintulu Port Authority. The state is not just betting on oil and gas, it is also going to build two hydrogen plants at the same port. If the takeover goes through, Sarawak will have come full circle. It joined Malaysia in 1963 under an agreement that allowed it to self-govern and manage its resources. However this wasn’t the case until the 2022 elections gave an opening to Abang Johari, a politician who had a role in every Sarawak administration since 1982.

China's CNOOC raises roof on giant Zhejiang LNG tank - LNG Prime --A unit of China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) has completed lifting the roof on one 270,000-cbm tank as part of an expansion project at its Ningbo LNG import facility in the Chinese province of Zhejiang. According to a statement by CNOOC Gas & Power, the operation of lifting the roof on the fifth LNG storage tank using air pressure took place on July 30. CNOOC Gas & Power said the roof weighs about 1,200 tons. The LNG tank is 62.6 meters high and has nearly 100 meters in diameter. It features CNOOC’s CGTank core storage tank technology. The state-owned energy giant is building six 270,000-cbm LNG tanks as part of the third expansion phase of the Ningbo LNG facility. In March this year, it raised the roof on the first LNG tank and recently lifted the roofs simultaneously on two tanks. The company said these onshore tanks have the world’s largest LNG storage capacity. CNOOC recently completed all of the six 270,000-cbm LNG storage tanks at its Binhai LNG import terminal in Jiangsu, and it is also building five 270,000-cbm tanks at the Zhuhai LNG import terminal in Guangdong.Earlier this year, the Ningbo LNG import facility received the 600th cargo of LNG since the launch of the plant in 2012. The LNG terminal currently has a capacity of 6 mtpa and six LNG tanks with a total capacity of 960,000 cbm. The third expansion phase will double the capacity to 12 mtpa and is expected to be operational in 2025.

Rystad Says Global Recoverable Oil Reserves Hold Steady -In a release sent to Rigzone recently, Rystad Energy said its latest research shows that global recoverable oil reserves “held largely steady at around 1,500 billion barrels”. This figure was “down some 52 billion barrels” from Rystad’s 2023 analysis, the company highlighted in the release, noting that, “of this year over year decrease, 30 billion barrels are due to one year of production, and 22 billion barrels are mostly due to downward adjustments of contingent resources in discoveries”. “This total recoverable oil resource of 1,500 billion barrels gives an upper limit of how much oil can be produced over the next 100 years or more,” Rystad stated in the release. “Of course, this upper limit is only realistic and economical if oil demand is not impacted by the energy transition, meaning oil prices would rise far above $100 per barrel,” it added. “In this theoretical ‘high case’, total oil production would peak around 2035 at 120 million barrels per day, then decline steeply to 85 million barrels per day in 2050,” it continued. The company stated in the release that, in a more realistic outlook for oil production, total output would peak in 2030 at 108 million barrels per day and decline to 55 million barrels per day in 2050, with oil prices staying around $50 per barrel in real terms. “Under this scenario, about one-third of the world’s recoverable oil, 500 billion barrels, would become stranded due to unprofitable developments,” Rystad said. “Such an aggressive energy transition scenario would theoretically limit global warming to 1.9 degrees, but given the current trajectory of oil demand, this path seems unlikely,” it added. In the release, Rystad reported proven oil reserves at 449 billion barrels, “according to recognized standards”. This provides a lower limit for remaining oil reserves if no new development projects were to be approved and all exploration activities were stopped, the release stated. Head of Analysis at Rystad Energy Per Magnus Nysveen, said in the release, “the world’s remaining oil reserves are insufficient to support oil demand if there is no transition to electric vehicles”. “Attempts to limit the supply of oil will have hardly any effect on limiting global warming. Instead, the only feasible way of keeping global temperatures rising less than 2.0 degrees Celsius is to ensure fast electrification of road transportation,” he added. Rystad highlighted in the release that its estimates of total recoverable oil resources have fallen by 700 billion barrels since 2019 due to reduced exploration activities. “Exploration has fallen as investors fear new discoveries will remain stranded due to the ongoing electrification of vehicles and the expected slump in both oil demand and crude prices,” Rystad said in the release. Rystad pointed out in its release that Saudi Arabia was the country with the most recoverable oil at 247 billion barrels. The U.S. ranked second with 156 billion barrels, Russia was third with 143 billion barrels, Canada was fourth with 122 billion barrels, and Iraq was fifth with 105 billion barrels, according to the release. “The largest downward revisions are seen in Saudi Arabia, where development priorities have shifted from offshore capacity expansions to onshore infill drilling,” Rystad stated in the release. “The only country with any significant increase in 2024 is Argentina, with a gain of four billion barrels thanks to the derisking of shale projects in the Vaca Muerta formation,” it added. According to the Energy Institute’s (EI) 2024 statistical review of world energy, Saudi Arabia produced 9.60 million barrels of crude oil and condensate per day in 2023. The U.S. produced 12.92 million barrels per day, Russia produced 10.55 million barrels per day, Canada produced 4.93 million barrels per day, and Iraq produced 4.27 million barrels per day, the review showed.

BofA Report Says Oil's Bermuda Triangle Is Nearing an End -Oil’s Bermuda triangle is nearing an end, a Bofa Global Research report sent to Rigzone by the BofA team this week stated. “Oil prices have been trading in a narrowing range, or a triangle pattern, for over a year now,” the report stated, adding that a triangle pattern is technically synonymous with a compressed coil or spring. “When it becomes too tight and what’s holding it lets go, a sharp and sudden breakout trend occurs,” the report noted. “This becomes increasingly likely after five or more swings within the triangle occur. Our weekly chart of Brent oil prices labels five swings ... Another tendency is for price to break out from the triangle 61.8-76.4 percent of the way through it, which we estimate to be in August-October of 2024,” it added. “Our current wave count associates this pattern with an urban legend, the Bermuda triangle, where things are said to have disappeared. Perhaps some disappearance of macro risk premium, global demand and/or supply cut hope is on the horizon and causes a breakdown in oil to $63.02/$60.00 a barrel by year end 2024,” the report continued. The report stated that a weekly close in Brent below $78 would look like a bearish triangle breakdown. “Alternatively, the burden is on the bulls to push oil higher to signal a different wave count. A weekly close above $89 per barrel could trigger a bullish spring higher to $105 per barrel,” it added.

Oil prices surge following Golan Heights attack | Malay Mail — Oil prices rose today due to concerns about an escalating conflict in the oil-rich Middle East, reported Anadolu. International benchmark Brent crude traded at US$80.67 (RM374.17) per barrel at 09.51am local time (0651 GMT), an increase of 0.49 per cent from the closing price of US$80.28 per barrel in the previous trading session. The American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at US$77.50 per barrel at the same time, a 0.44 per cent rise from the previous session that closed at US$77.16 per barrel. Both benchmarks started the week with upward movements following an attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Despite ceasefire negotiations, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, home to a vast majority of global oil reserves, increase supply risk in the markets. Meanwhile, negotiations regarding the ceasefire in Gaza and the exchange of prisoners between Hamas and Israel are currently stalled after the postponement of the Israeli delegation’s visit to next week, which was initially scheduled for Thursday. However, gains were weak as the outlook for crude demand in the world’s largest crude oil importer remained bleak. Prices continue to be depressed by concerns about demand in China as it grapples with a slowing economic recovery. This week, market players will be watching the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meetings in a bid to gauge the oil market trajectory. Fed will review its policy on July 30-31. While investors expect the bank to keep rates unchanged, they will also look for further evidence that a rate cut will happen at the September meeting. Experts believe that reducing policy interest rates soon would support economic activity in the country, resulting in higher oil demand. —

The Oil Market Sold Off Sharply After Deadly Strike in the Israeli-Occupied Golan Heights The oil market on Monday sold off sharply after Israeli officials said they wanted to avoid the widening of conflict in the Middle East as it responded to a deadly strike by Hezbollah in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend. In overnight trading, the market rallied to a high of $77.69 as concerns over Middle East tension resumed due to the attack. On Sunday, Israel’s security cabinet authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to decide on a response to the deadly attack in Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, with Israel vowing retaliation in Lebanon against Hezbollah. However, the market sold off to a low of $75.35 after two Israeli officials said Israel wanted to hurt Hezbollah but not drag the Middle East into an all-out war. The market later retraced some of its sharp losses ahead of the close. The September WTI contract settled down $1.35 at $75.81 and the September Brent contract settled down $1.35 at $79.78. The product markets ended the session sharply lower, with the heating oil market settling down 4.47 cents at $2.3750 and the RB market settling down 4.52 cents at $2.4153.The U.S. Department of Energy said it had finalized a contract to purchase 4.65 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for delivery to the Bayou Choctaw site in Louisiana during the last three months of the year. Exxon Mobil will supply 3.9 million barrels of the contract, while Macquarie Commodities Trading US LLC will supply the rest. The contracts bring the total amount of oil bought to refill the reserve to 43.25 million barrels. The DOE said the average purchase price for the oil is about $76.92/barrel.On Sunday, Israel’s security cabinet authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to decide on the “manner and timing” of a response to a rocket strike at a football field in the Golan Heights that killed 12 teenagers and children. Iran-backed Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack. Israel has vowed retaliation against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israeli jets hit targets in southern Lebanon on Sunday. Cabinet Office Minister, Pat McFadden, said an escalation in fighting between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah could be “much more serious” than the war in Gaza. Later, two Israeli officials said Israel wants to hurt Hezbollah but not drag the Middle East into all-out war.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 490,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending August 2^nd, increasing available refining capacity by 255,000 bpd. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his opposition rival Edmundo Gonzalez were each claiming victory in a presidential election on Monday morning, after a vote marked by accusations of underhand tactics and isolated incidents of violence. The country’s electoral authority said just after midnight on Monday that Maduro had won a third term with 51.2% of the vote, despite multiple exit polls which pointed to an opposition win. The authority said opposition candidate Gonzalez won 44% of the vote, though the opposition had earlier said it had “reasons to celebrate” and asked supporters to continue monitoring vote counts. Opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, said Gonzalez had won 70% of the vote and that multiple independent exit polls and quick counts decisively showed his victory. U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said the United States had “serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people.” He called for electoral authorities to publish a detailed tabulation of votes.

Oil Falls To 7-Week Low In U.S. Trading On Demand Fears -- Oil futures slid by nearly 2% to seven-week lows by the close of trading in the U.S. on Monday, as global demand concerns outweighed rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East.At market close, the Brent front-month (or September) futures contract was down 1.66% or $1.35 to $79.78 per barrel, having breached the $80 price-floor yet again after seven weeks. The West Texas Intermediate also ended the session down 1.75% or $1.35 at $75.81 per barrel. Monday's intraday declines follow a three week losing streak for oil, which may yet spillover into a fourth week. Traders appeared to focus on lackluster global demand and a distinct lack of economic turnaround signals from China.That's despite escalating tensions between Israel and Lebanon's Iran-backed militia group Hezbollah and political unrest in OPEC member Venezuela.With the Middle East's crude oil output largely unaffected, and the situation in Venezuela remaining pretty fluid, the market awaits clear signals on the Northern Hemisphere's summer demand in general, and that of the U.S. in particular, just as China's economic picture remains mixed.On July 20, China's General Administration of Customs said the country's total fuel oil imports dropped 11% in the first half of 2024. In volume terms, imports totaled 11.95 million metric tons, or just shy of 76 million barrels sparking a round of selling as traders fretted over the market direction of the world's largest importer of crude oil.Meanwhile, as global demand downsides accumulate, oil supply remains strong. The U.S. continues to lead production that is not originating from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC.On Friday, energy industry services firm Baker Hughes observed that the number of U.S. rigs - considered a strong indicator of future production - had risen by three to 589 in the week to July 26.It also marked the second consecutive weekly rise in the number of rigs, taking the U.S.' uptick to its highest level since November 2022.OPEC is itself set to unwind its production cuts later this year and forecasts of an oil market surplus either in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 appear to be rising.And the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global supply growth may be much stronger next year, with non-OPEC output growth, mainly in the U.S., Canada, Guyana and Brazil, leading gains for a third consecutive year by adding 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to the global supply pool.Such sentiments are keeping Brent, considered the global proxy benchmark, in backwardation, i.e. a position wherein the current price is higher than prices trading in the futures market for later months.The difference came in at over $3 per barrel on Monday, with the Brent April and May 2025 contracts trading at discounts of over $3 to the September contract. The West Texas intermediate is also showing similar levels of discount in a market that is at present not liking what it is seeing on the demand front. Afterall, oil isn't just a story of demand.

A Reuters Survey Showed that China’s Manufacturing Activity Likely Fell for a Third Consecutive Month in July The oil market continued to trend lower on Tuesday settling lower for the third consecutive session amid concerns over demand in China. Some disappointing economic news from China has been weighing on market sentiment. A Reuters survey showed that China’s manufacturing activity likely fell for a third consecutive month in July. The market was also weighed by the strength in the dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting that ends on Wednesday, when any new clues regarding an interest rate cut in September will be in focus. The market posted a high of $75.97 in overnight trading before it continued to trend lower. It sold off to a low of $74.59 by mid-day. The market later retraced some of its losses and remained in a sideways trading range as it positioned itself ahead of the release of the weekly oil inventory reports later on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. The September WTI contract settled down $1.08 at $74.73 and the September Brent contract settled down $1.15 at $78.63. The product markets ended in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 3.82 cents at $2.3368 and the RB market settling down 2.82 Sources stated that an OPEC+ panel is unlikely this week to make any changes to its current deal to cut production and to start unwinding some cuts from October, despite recent sharp declines in oil prices. Top ministers from OPEC and allies led by Russia or OPEC+ will hold an online Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting on Thursday morning. On Tuesday, Israel targeted a commander of Hezbollah near the suburbs of Lebanon’s capital Beirut. Israel confirmed it acted in response to the rocket attack in the Golan Heights. A senior Israeli official said that Tuesday’s strike constitutes Israel’s response to the strike from Hezbollah, suggesting no further military activity should be expected at this time. Earlier, United States Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin does not believe that a fight between Israel and Hezbollah is inevitable, and said Washington would like to see things resolved in a diplomatic fashion. Venezuela’s opposition said it had voting-tally proof it had won the election claimed by President Nicolas Maduro. Protesters took to the streets after President Maduro was declared winner of the disputed poll. Maduro, in a live broadcast from the presidential palace, said his forces were acting against what he called violent protesters. The armed forces have long supported Maduro and there are no signs leaders were breaking from the government. The Venezuelan Conflict Observatory said “numerous acts of repression and violence carried out by paramilitary collectives and security forces have been reported”. On Monday, electoral authorities said that Maduro had won a third term as president with 51% of the vote. However, the opposition said the 73% of voting tallies to which it has access showed its candidate Edmundo Gonzalez had won an unassailable victory, winning more than twice as many votes as Maduro. Independent pollsters called Maduro’s claim of victory implausible, and governments in the U.S. and elsewhere immediately cast doubt on the results and called for a full tabulation of votes. The Organization of American States’ election observation department said it cannot recognize the results by Venezuela’s national electoral council declaring President Nicolas Maduro the winner of Sunday’s vote.

Oil prices slide 1%, settle at 7-week low on China worries (Reuters) - Oil prices slid about 1% to settle at a seven-week low on Tuesday as investors worried that demand from China could be weakening while OPEC+ seems likely to stick to plans to increase supplies. Market participants have been talking for days about a possible ceasefire deal in Gaza that could reduce the geopolitical risk premium for crude prices. Brent futures delivery fell $1.15, or 1.4%, to settle at $78.63. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.08, or 1.4%, to $74.73. That was the lowest close for both benchmarks since June 5 and kept both in technically oversold territory for a second day. U.S. futures for diesel and gasoline also closed at their lowest since early June. Manufacturing activity in China, the world's largest crude importer, likely shrank for a third month in July, according to a Reuters poll. Chinese leaders have vowed to step up support for the economy, but investors expect such measures will be limited since the Third Plenum policy meeting largely reiterated existing goals. In Lebanon, an Israeli air strike targeted a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut's southern suburbs in what the Israeli military called retaliation for a cross-border rocket attack over the weekend that killed 12 children and teenagers. Some analysts have said Israel's measured response could signal a deal was close on Gaza. A ceasefire deal with Hamas has "the potential to (remove) $4 to $7 (a barrel) of risk premium out of the market," B On Thursday, top ministers from OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies like Russia, will meet to review the market, including a plan to start unwinding some output cuts from October. No changes are currently expected. Analysts projected U.S. energy firms pulled about 1.1 million barrels of crude out of storage during the week ended July 26. , If correct, that would be the first time U.S. crude stocks declined for five weeks in a row since January 2022. U.S. job openings fell modestly in June and data for the prior month was revised higher, suggesting the labor market continued to cool, which analysts say makes it more likely the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates. The Fed is expected hold its benchmark overnight interest rate steady at its July 30-31 meeting and signal that rate cuts may begin as soon as the central bank's September meeting. The Fed hiked rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to tame a surge in inflation. Lower rates can boost economic growth and demand for oil. The U.S. is considering fresh sanctions on OPEC member Venezuela following disputed results in the South American country's presidential election. President Nicolas Maduro's victory in the latest Venezuelan election "is a headwind for global supply, as this could result in tighter U.S. sanctions," ANZ analysts said in a note, estimating such a scenario could cut Venezuela's exports by 100,000-120,000 barrels per day

WTI Hovers Above 2-Month Lows After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Draws - Oil prices declined for the third straight day as general risk-off sentiment combined with traders anxiety over Chinese demand to pull WTI down near two-month lows. "Questionable data coming out of China is the main driver in the overall retraction" for oil, Gary Cunningham told MarketWatch. China's "petroleum demands may not be as robust as we thought just a few weeks ago." Meanwhile, U.S. summer travel demands remain a "bright spot, but are not enough to support the entire market as political risks due to escalating tensions in the Mideast are also easing,"

Crude -4.495mm (-3.9mm exp)
Cushing -929k
Gasoline -1.917mm (-1.6mm exp)
Distillates -322k

API reports that crude inventories tumbled for the 5th straight week. All cohorts saw drawdowns last week..

Oil Prices Soar After Israel Kills Hamas Leader and Hezbollah Senior Commander | OilPrice.com

Oil prices were soaring early on Wednesday morning, with Brent breaking back above $80 and WTI nearing $77.
Israel carried out two strikes on Tuesday, the first killing Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr and the second killing Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh.
The two strikes, carried out in Beirut and Tehran respectively, marked a significant escalation in the regional conflict.

Geopolitical risk has well and truly returned to oil markets after Israeli strikes killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr. Oil prices spiked immediately on the news and have continued to climb, with WTI rising past $77 and Brent nearing $81.The first of Israel’s two strikes on Tuesday was an airstrike on Beirut targeting Fuad Shukr who Israel claimed was responsible for Saturday’s rocket attack on the Golan Heights which killed 12 civilians, most under the age of 16.Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, said Hizbollah had “crossed the red line” with the attack, and days later launched three rockets into the Haret Hreik neighborhood in Beirut. Lebanon's Prime Minister Najib Mikati condemned "blatant Israeli aggression" and Iran’s foreign ministry condemned the attack as “a blatant violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”.The second of the two strikes, and the one that sent oil prices spiking, came just hours later when Hamas’ political leader was killed while in Iran for the swearing-in ceremony of the country’s new president.The strike has dramatically heightened tensions in the region and is likely to undermine Gaza ceasefire talks, with Iran, Qatar, Jordan, and Lebanon all condemning Israel. The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei added to fears of a broader war by saying “It is our Duty to take Revenge and Severely Punish the Zionist Entity for the Assassination in Iran, because the Assassination was carried out on our Soil.”As Hamas’ leader in exile, Ismail Haniyeh played a key role in the Gaza ceasefire talks brokered by Qatar, the US, and Egypt. His killing will undoubtedly delay and potentially derail entirely those talks. The significance of these two attacks compared to previous escalations in this conflict can be seen in recent oil price movements. Both WTI and Brent had been falling consistently for a month, hitting 7-week lows on Tuesday even after the Hezbollah rocket attack on the Golan Heights.The geography of Tuesday’s strikes is arguably more significant than the figures involved, with strikes in Beirut and Tehran marking a significant escalation in the conflict and threatening to push the region into a full-blown war. Since the strike, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that the killing of Ismail Haniyeh was “something we were not aware of or involved in”. Qatar, one of the lead mediators in ceasefire talks, described Haniyeh’s killing as a “heinous crime and dangerous escalation”.

WTI Extends Gains After US Crude Inventory Tumbles To 6-Month-Lows -- Oil prices have surged overnight following the assassination of Hamas' political leader in Tehran. This geopolitical risk premium surge came on top of an across the board inventory draw reported by API last night. Traders are watching for confirmation of the drawdown trend in US crude stocks from the official data this morning. DOE

Crude -3.44mm (-3.9mm exp)
Cushing -1.1mm
Gasoline -3.67mm (-1.6mm exp)
Distillates +1.53mm

US crude inventories fell for the 5th straight week, dropping 3.44mm barrels and stockpiles at the Cushing Hub also declined (for the 4th straight week) Graphs Source: Bloomberg That drawdown has dragged total US crude stocks to their lowest since February... The Biden administration added 685k barrels to the SPR last week (which offset the big commercial draw modestly)... US crude production remains at a record high, despite the accelerating trend lower in rig counts...

Oil jumps as killing of Hamas leader reignites geopolitical risk –-- Oil jumped the most since October after Hamas said Israel killed its political leader, stoking tensions in a region that produces around a third of the world’s crude.West Texas Intermediate climbed 4.3% to settle near US$78 a barrel. Hamas said the leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in an airstrike in Iran, while Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Israel has “prepared the ground for its severe punishment.” The conflict has escalated since last weekend, when a Hezbollah strike in the Israel-controlled Golan Heights killed 12, potentially jeopardizing the ongoing cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas.Meanwhile in broader markets, traders embraced risk after the Fed signaled it’s moving closer to lowering borrowing costs amid easing inflation and a cooling labor market.On the supply side, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.44 million barrels last week, reaching the lowest level since February, government data showed. Stockpiles have slid for five straight weeks, the longest streak of declines since January 2022. An OPEC+ committee meeting is scheduled for Thursday, with markets split on whether the alliance will proceed with a scheduled output increase next quarter.The market has been assessing the risk that fresh escalation could affect production and exports, including from Iran. Crude prices hadn’t reacted particularly sharply to recent developments in the war, which started in early October. “Right now, putting $2 of geopolitical risk premium back in the market is telling me the market is covering shorts, but not worried about a real supply event,” In a sign that oil traders are hedging against further conflict, Brent call volumes were the highest since early June on Tuesday. A gauge of market volatility is also the highest since the start of the summer.

Oil gains nearly 3% on rising Mideast tension, falling US crude stockpiles (Reuters) - Oil prices rose nearly 3% on Wednesday as investors worried the conflict in the Middle East could widen after the killing of a Hamas leader in Iran, and after a sharp fall in U.S. crude stockpiles. Global benchmark Brent crude futures for September delivery , which expired on Wednesday, settled up $2.09, or 2.66%, at $80.72 a barrel. The more active October contract gained $2.77 to $80.84. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $3.18, or 4.26%, to settle at $77.91 a barrel, their biggest daily gain since October 2023. Still, Brent finished July with nearly a 7% monthly decline with WTI down nearly 4% for the month. U.S. crude stocks decreased by 3.4 million barrels last week, government data showed, more than triple the 1.1 million-barrel decline analysts had expected in a Reuters poll. Stocks fell for a fifth straight week, the longest streak of drawdowns since January 2021. "Robust exports have helped to offset lower refining activity and strong imports to encourage a fifth consecutive draw to crude inventories," A day earlier, Brent and WTI both lost about 1.4%, closing at their lowest levels in seven weeks after falling last week on hopes of a Gaza ceasefire agreement that could ease Middle East tensions and accompanying supply concerns. Tensions in the oil-producing region heated up overnight on news that Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran. This came a day after the Israeli government claimed it killed Hezbollah's most senior commander in an airstrike on Beirut in retaliation for Saturday's rocket attack on Israel. Separately, the U.S. also conducted a strike in Iraq in the latest conflict in the region. "Overnight developments and elevated geopolitical risk merely provide temporary reprieve for oil benchmarks. Unless oil and gas infrastructure is hit, the latest spike is unlikely to last," said Gaurav Sharma, an independent oil analyst in London. A 0.4% fall in the U.S. dollar index (.DXY), opens new tab also supported prices. A weaker dollar can boost demand for oil by making the greenback-denominated commodity cheaper for holders of other currencies. Limiting gains were concerns about fuel demand in China, the world's top crude oil importer. China's manufacturing activity in July shrank for a third month, an official factory survey showed on Wednesday. Ample spare production capacity held by OPEC members also weighed on prices. OPEC+ is expected to stick to their current deal on production and start unwinding some output cuts from October. Top ministers from OPEC+, will hold an online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) on Thursday.

Oil Rises on Retaliation Reports After Hamas Leader Killed Oil extended gains in late trading to more than 5% after the New York Times reported Iran ordered retaliation against Israel for the killing of a Hamas leader on its soil. West Texas Intermediate climbed as high as $78.55 in the hour after prices officially settled. Wednesday’s gain already had been the largest since October, spurred by the news of Israel’s strike on Hamas’s political leader. The conflict has escalated since last weekend, when a Hezbollah strike in the Israel-controlled Golan Heights killed 12, potentially jeopardizing the ongoing cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas. For months, traders were concerned the conflict could spiral into a more devastating proxy war, embroiling the US and Iran and possibly hampering crude exports. Meanwhile in broader markets, traders embraced risk after the Fed signaled it’s moving closer to lowering borrowing costs amid easing inflation and a cooling labor market. On the supply side, US crude inventories fell by 3.44 million barrels last week, reaching the lowest level since February, government data showed. Stockpiles have slid for five straight weeks, the longest streak of declines since January 2022. An OPEC+ committee meeting is scheduled for Thursday, with markets split on whether the alliance will proceed with a scheduled output increase next quarter. The market has been assessing the risk that fresh escalation could affect production and exports, including from Iran. Crude prices hadn’t reacted particularly sharply to recent developments in the war, which started in early October. “Right now, putting $2 of geopolitical risk premium back in the market is telling me the market is covering shorts, but not worried about a real supply event,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. In a sign that oil traders are hedging against further conflict, Brent call volumes were the highest since early June on Tuesday. A gauge of market volatility is also the highest since the start of the summer. Earlier, WTI for September delivery rose $3.18 to settle at $77.91 a barrel in New York. Brent for September settlement, which expires Wednesday, rose climbed $2.09 to $80.72 a barrel. The more active October contract settled at $80.84.

Oil Prices Rise Amid Growing Fears of a War in the Middle East -

Crude oil prices spiked after Israel assassinated Hamas’s political leader on Iranian soil, leading to threats of retaliation from Tehran.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, combined with record US oil demand, has created a bullish environment for oil prices.
Early on Thursday morning, WTI was trading around $78.50 while Brent had climbed above $81.

Crude oil prices continued their climb today after a surge yesterday following the news of Israel assassinating Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and a senior Hezbollah official in Lebanon.The fact the Haniyeh assassination was done in Iran gave a significant boost to prices as Tehran immediately threatened retaliation of the sort that oil analysts have said could send Brent crude into three-digit territory."We fear the region is at the brink of all-out war," Japan’s deputy representative to the United Nations said as the Security Council called on UN members to double down on diplomatic pressure to resolve the conflict between Israel and its neighbors."Countries with major influence must put more pressure and work more vigorously ... to put out the flames of war in Gaza," China’s UN ambassador said.Iran’s representative called the assassination of Haniyeh an act of terrorism, according to a Reuters report on the latest developments in the situation.As pressure remains high in the Middle East,Brent crude topped $81 per barrel before paring some of its gains earlier today, andWest Texas Intermediate climbed closer to $79 per barrel.In additional bullish news for oil, the Energy Information Administration reported that oil demand in the United States had reached a seasonal record in May, at 20.80 million barrels daily. That was quite a significant revision from EIA estimates, which saw May demand at 20 million barrels daily.Global oil inventories, meanwhile, are on a downward trajectory, reaching a record deficit relative to their average levels, Eric Nuttall, senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners told Bloomberg this week. Nuttall also noted OPEC+ production cut compliance improvements as a factor for a bullish view on oil. Unless tension in the Middle East gets defused through diplomacy, oil may continue up based on fundamentals and the geopolitical premium.

OPEC+’s Decision to Keep its Output Policy Unchanged -- The oil market gave up its early gains on Thursday as it weighed OPEC+’s decision to keep its output policy unchanged, as expected, against the threat of a wider Middle East conflict, which helped support the market early in the session. The crude market traded higher on the news that Iran is meeting with regional representatives to discuss a retaliation strike against Israel. The September WTI contract continued on its upward trend and posted a high of $78.88 in overnight trading. However, the market’s gains were limited and erased its earlier gains as OPEC+ decided to keep its oil output policy unchanged, including a plan to start unwinding some of the output cuts starting in October. The market sold off to a low of $76.24 ahead of the close as it retraced almost 62% of its recent move higher from a low of $74.59 to its early high of $78.88. The September WTI contract settled down $1.60 at $76.31 and the September Brent contract settled down $1.32 at $79.52. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 3.19 cents at $2.4064 and the RB market settling down 4.45 cents at $2.3980. Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said that the current level of oil prices is comfortable for the Russian budget. He added that the oil market supply and demand remains in balance.Bloomberg reported that more than 300,000 Brent call option contracts traded on Wednesday, amid increased tensions in the Middle East. The volume was dominated by large call spreads, including $87 and $90 spreads for October, as well as $110 and $130 spreads for November.On Thursday, a meeting of top OPEC+ ministers has kept oil output policy unchanged including a plan to start unwinding some output cuts from October and repeated that the increase could be paused or reversed, if needed. The current policy, as agreed in June, calls for some OPEC+ members to gradually phase out output cuts of 2.2 million bpd over the course of a year from October 2024 to September 2025. OPEC+ said the members making those cuts “reiterated that the gradual phase-out of the voluntary reduction of oil production could be paused or reversed, depending on prevailing market conditions.” Thursday’s meeting also noted assurances from Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia to achieve full conformity with pledged output cuts. Those countries had earlier delivered plans to compensate for past overproduction. An OPEC+ source said the chair of the meeting was insisting that members show commitment to the compensation plan. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will hold its next meeting on October 2^nd.S&P Global Commodities at Sea estimates diesel shipments from the Middle East to Europe averaged 310,000 b/d in July, the lowest level since October, as the economic incentive for shipping diesel from the Arb Gulf to NW Europe was basically negative. Meanwhile, U.S. diesel exports to Europe in July reached a record high as the diesel arbitrage from the U.S. to Northwest Europe has been positive since November.

U.S. crude oil falls 2% as economic worries outweigh Middle East escalation -- Crude oil futures fell 2% on Thursday, as anxiety about the U.S. economy overshadowed red-hot tensions in the Middle East.The manufacturing sector contracted in July for a fourth consecutive month and jobless claims surged last week, renewing fears that the U.S. economy could tip into a recession.Here are Thursday's closing energy prices:

West Texas Intermediate September contract: $76.31 per barrel, down $1.60, or 2.05%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has gained 6.5%.
Brent October contract: $79.52 per barrel, down $1.32, or 1.63%. Year to date, the global benchmark has gained 3.2%.
RBOB Gasoline September contract: $2.39 per gallon, down 4 cents, or 1.82% Year to date, gasoline is up 14%.
Natural Gas September contract: $1.96 per thousand cubic feet, down 6 cents, or 3.34%. Year to date, gas is down 21.7%.

Oil prices had rallied Wednesday after the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran heightened the risk of a regional war in the Middle East.Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered a direct strike on Israel in response to the killing of Haniyeh,three Iranian officials told The New York Times.Khamenei ordered the direct strike at an emergency meeting of Iran's national security council Wednesday morning after the Hamas leader was assassinated, the officials told the Times.Top Iranian officials are scheduled to meet Thursday with representatives of Yemen's Houthis, Lebanon's Hezbollah and militant groups in Iraq, five sources told Reuters."The assassination of the Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh overnight in Tehran moves this conflict appreciably up the escalatory ladder and edges the region closer to a wider war," Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told clients in a note Wednesday.Iran and Israel traded direct strikes in April, pushing oil prices to the highest point of the year, but the enemies ultimately pulled back from a full-scale war."At the time of writing, we are not certain whether the same containment dynamics will prevail, especially given that this current chapter involves Hamas, Hezbollah, as well as Iran," Croft wrote."At a minimum, the ongoing Gaza ceasefire talks appear to be severely imperiled," she said.

Oil prices rise but head for fourth week in red on demand concerns -- Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Friday but were headed for a fourth straight week of losses as concerns over slowing economic growth and demand largely offset a brief boost from worsening tensions in the Middle East. Crude prices tumbled in the prior session, cutting short a brief recovery after a raft of weaker-than-expected purchasing managers index data from the U.S. ramped up concerns over a slowdown in global economic growth. The data followed dismal readings from top oil importer China. The weak economic prints saw markets largely look past heightened tensions in the Middle East after the killing of a Hamas leader in Iran earlier in the week. Concerns over a bigger war in the region helped crude prices recover from near two-month lows. Oil markets took middling cues from a meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC ), where the cartel made no changes to its production policies and reiterated that it could pause plans to increase output from October. Brent oil futures expiring in October rose 0.4% to $79.84 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.4% to $75.71 a barrel by 21:24 ET (01:24 GMT). Brent and WTI prices were set to lose between 0.4% and 0.9% this week, after sinking to near two-month lows in the week. Weakness in oil was driven chiefly by growing concerns that an economic slowdown will batter oil demand in the coming months. This was furthered by weak manufacturing PMIs from both the US and China this week. China remained a major pain point for oil markets, as Beijing provided scant details on how it planned to shore up economic growth in the world’s biggest oil importer. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve signaled a potential interest rate cut in September. But traders feared that the cut would be too late for the U.S. economy to still see a soft landing. Crude prices did curb a bulk of their weekly losses on concerns over an all-out war in the Middle East. Israel allegedly killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, ramping up concerns over retaliation by the Palestinian group and Iran. Earlier in the week, Israel said it had killed Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukur in an airstrike, drawing ire from the Lebanon-based, Iran-backed group. The prospect of an all-out war between Israel and its surrounding states saw traders attach some risk premium to oil prices, on the prospect of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Oil settles at 8-month low after disappointing US job numbers - Oil prices fell on Friday, settling at their lowest since January, after data showed the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected last month, and weak Chinese economic data added more pressure. Brent crude futures settled down $2.71, or 3.41%, to $76.81 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down $2.79, or 3.66%, at $73.52. At their session lows, both benchmarks fell by more than $3 per barrel. U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in July and unemployment increased to 4.3%, pointing to raising fears of a possible recession. "We moved from a demand-driven market to a geopolitical one for maybe two days then we absolutely nosedived on all this economic data," Economic data from top oil importer China and surveys showing weaker manufacturing activity across Asia, Europe and the U.S. raised the risk of a sluggish global economic recovery that would weigh on oil consumption. Falling manufacturing activity in China also inhibited prices, adding to concerns about demand growth after June data showed imports and refinery activity lower than a year earlier. Asia's crude imports in July fell to their lowest in two years, sapped by weak demand in China and India, data from LSEG Oil Research showed. Meanwhile, OPEC oil output rose in July, a Reuters survey found, as a rebound in Saudi Arabian supply and small increases elsewhere offset the impact of ongoing voluntary supply cuts by other members and the wider OPEC+ alliance. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 26.70 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, up 100,000 bpd from June, according to the survey based on shipping data and information from industry sources. An OPEC+ meeting on Thursday had left the group's oil output policy unchanged, including a plan to start unwinding one layer of production cuts from October. Oil investors are also watching the Middle East, where Lebanon's Iran-backed group Hezbollah said its conflict with Israel had entered a new phase. Still, analysts noted no material disruption of oil supplies from the region as prices slumped to multi-week lows days after the killing of senior leaders of Iran-aligned militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah stoked fears of all-out war. “Oil has been pumped up on just extraordinary jitters over the Middle East situation but here we are several days after a significant event,”

Israel-Hezbollah conflict risks spiraling after soccer field attack --Israeli officials are weighing how to respond to the Hezbollah attack over the weekend that killed 12 children as escalating tensions threaten to stymie U.S. efforts to bring stability and peace to the region. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed Hezbollah will “pay the price” after a rocket struck a soccer field in Israel’s Golan Heights. In addition to the deaths, the attack wounded 20 people in a town dominated by the Druze minority Muslim group. The U.S. has tried to defuse tensions between the Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel for months with little success as both sides teeter toward a larger war. Israel is already discussing whether a military operation is needed in Lebanon, and the weekend attack could boost the arguments of those advocating for war. While there has been a flurry of back-and-forth strikes across the Israel-Lebanon border, the Golan Heights attack struck a new nerve and created new pressure on Israel to respond with strength. It also signals just how far the conflict has spiraled out of control. “The problem with this conflict is that deterrence has disappeared [and] Hezbollah has been accustomed to hitting Israel without consequence,” said Michael Rubin, director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. Rubin predicted a war unless Lebanon and the United Nations take greater action to restrain Hezbollah. “The result is going to be war, and it’s going to look like Gaza, because the status quo hasn’t been able to deter Hezbollah.” Limited Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon in the past two days are expected to be just the beginning of Israeli retaliation. The Lebanese militia group is quickly moving to defend against an Israeli attack, reportedly evacuating some areas in the south and preparing precision-guided missiles. Netanyahu, whose security Cabinet has authorized a retaliatory strike, doubled down on a harsh response to Hezbollah in a post on the social media platform X after visiting the site of the Golan Heights strike. “These children are our children, they are the children of all of us,” he wrote. “Our response will come, and it will be hard.”

Netanyahu Postpones the Evacuation of 150 Sick and Wounded Children from Gaza - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has delayed the evacuation of 150 sick and wounded Palestinian children from Gaza to the UAE, Israeli media reported on Sunday.A source told Haaretz that Netanyahu made the decision in response to the killing of 12 Arab Druze children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Israel blamed the massacre on Hezbollah, while Hezbollah denied the accusation and said the children were hit with an Israeli air defense rocket.Netanyahu’s decision to punish the sick and wounded children was denounced by the group Physicians for Human Rights, which called the move a “cruel game by the Israeli government with children’s lives.”Last week, Haaretz reported that Netanyahu instructed his government to arrange transport of sick and wounded Palestinians from Gaza to a third country for treatment. The first plane was due to take off on Monday, but the flight has been canceled.Netanyahu also previously canceled a plan to set up a field hospital inside Israel to treat Gaza’s children. Some children have been evacuated through Egypt for medical care, but the Israeli capture of the Rafah border crossing on May 7 cut off that vital lifeline.

Israel Bombs Beirut, Claims It Targeted a Senior Hezbollah Commander - An Israeli airstrike targeted the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital of Beirut on Tuesday, a step that could escalate the Israel-Hezbollah conflict into a full-blown war.Israel said that it targeted a senior Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr. A Lebanese government official told CNN that Shukr survived the strike, while Israel is claiming he was killed. Lebanon’s Health Ministry is reporting that three civilians, including two children, were killed in the attack and 74 others have been wounded.The Israeli military claimed Shukr was responsible for the rocket that killed 12 Druze children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on Saturday. Hezbollah denied responsibility for the killing of the children and has said they were hit by an Israeli air defense rocket.After the strike, the US expressed strong support for Israel against Hezbollah. “Our commitment to Israel’s security is ironclad and unwavering against all Iran-backed threats, including Lebanese Hezbollah,” said National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson.According to Al Jazeera, Hezbollah has warned that if Israel launched a strike deep into Lebanese territory, it would mean “all rules of war” are off. The last time Israel bombed Beirut was on January 2, when the Israeli military launched a drone strike that targeted a senior Hamas official.Media reports said the US was warning Israel against targeting Beirut, but the US is still providing unconditional military aid and not using any of its leverage to rein in Israel. The US has also previously ensured it would back Israel in a full-blown war in Lebanon.

Hezbollah Confirms Its Commander Killed in Israeli Airstrike on Beirut - Hezbollah on Wednesday confirmed that one of its most senior military commanders, Fuah Shukr, was killed by an Israeli airstrike that hit a residential building in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Tuesday.Lebanese sources told Reuters that Shukr’s body was found in the rubble on Wednesday evening, and at least two women and two children were also killed in the strike.Shukr, also known as Hajj Mohsen, was a founding member of Hezbollah. According to Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen, he was one of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah’s closest advisors.Hezbollah said that Nasrallah would respond to the Israeli attack in a speech at Shukr’s funeral on Thursday. “As for our political stance on this sinful aggression and great crime, it will be expressed by Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah tomorrow in the martyred leader’s funeral procession,” the Lebanese group said. Israel said it targeted Shukr in response to the rocket that killed 12 Druze children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Hezbollah denied responsibility for the strike and blamed it on an Israeli air defense rocket.Druze residents of the Golan Heights, who mostly consider themselves Syrian, rejected the idea of retaliation for the killing of the 12 children. “Based on our Arab, Islamic, monotheistic beliefs, we reject that a single drop of blood be shed in the name of revenge for our children,” said the Religious and Temporal Commission in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, according to Middle East Eye.

Israeli soldiers demolish water system in Gaza -- The Israeli daily Haaretz reported Monday that over the weekend, in violation of humanitarian law, a unit of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the 401st Brigade of the Armored Corps, rigged a critical water reservoir in Gaza with explosives and then detonated them, destroying the facility known as the Canada Well. Palestinians inspect the damage at a site hit by an Israeli bombardment on Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Saturday, July 13, 2024 [AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi] The water facility, located in Tel Sultan neighborhood on the northwestern side of Rafah, the southernmost city in the Gaza Strip, was built in 1999 with funding provided by the Canadian International Development Agency. Equipped with solar panels, it enabled water services to continue for tens of thousands of people in the area despite the destruction of the entire electrical grid in the enclave. Following the destruction, the IDF soldiers celebrated by posting videos of the operation on their Instagram and X social media accounts, writing, “Destruction of the Tel Sultan water reservoir in honor of Shabbat.” The Israeli army admitted that its soldiers were responsible for the bombing of the Canada Well and said it was investigating if any international laws were violated. Monther Shoblaq, director general of the Coastal Municipalities Water Utility, speaking with Drop Site, said, “I was shocked when I saw the video. It’s not just that they targeted this water facility; it’s the fact that they planted explosives, celebrated the act on Instagram, and did so under the guise of honoring the Sabbath. It’s deeply cruel. This is the Canada Well in Tal al-Sultan—one of the most important water facilities in the city of Rafah.” What is being disputed in the Israeli press, however, is whether the brigade commander of the Combat Engineers obtained permission from senior officers of the IDF Southern Command to destroy the facility and not the obvious fact that the operation was typical of the conduct of the IDF throughout the war against the people of Gaza. The areas where the operation took place were considered humanitarian safe zones, which become killing zones whenever the IDF pleases. As is usual in these situations, the army told Haaretz it was going to look into the incident and consider if the military police needed to open an investigation. Given the international outcry over Israeli war crimes in Gaza, these reports from Rafah are one more embarrassment for the IDF and the Netanyahu government, which will try to manufacture yet another outrageous pretext, perhaps claiming that the operation was necessary to prevent Hamas from accessing potable water for their continued operations. A similar argument could be made for actions to deprive the population of breathable air as well. Throughout the now more than nine-month-long siege on the Gaza Strip, countless video clips posted on social media have exposed the barbarism of IDF in the killing and abuse of innocent Palestinians, as well as international aid workers who have risked their lives to help the beleaguered population. In each case, neither the Israeli army, Netanyahu, nor the US government has raised a finger to curb the savagery. On the contrary, they have commended and justified these actions. Placing context on the blowing up of the Canada Well water reservoir, Reuters reported yesterday that in July the Israeli army destroyed 30 water wells in Rafah and Khan Younis. And given the incessant bombing and drone attacks, the daily chore to seek water and sustenance has potentially lethal consequences. In May, the BBC reported that satellite data had revealed more than half of Gaza’s water sites had been damaged including four of the six wastewater treatment plants crucial to preventing the build-up of sewage. As the Reuters report noted, “People have dug wells in bleak areas near the sea where the bombing has pushed them or rely on salty tap water from Gaza’s only aquifer, now contaminated with seawater and sewage. Children walk long distances to line up at makeshift collection points. Often not strong enough to carry the filled containers, they drag them on wooden boards. Gaza city has lost nearly all its water production capacity, with 88 percent of its water wells and 100 percent of its desalination plants damaged or destroyed.”

Israel war on Gaza live: Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran

Hamas said its political chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed in “a treacherous Zionist raid on his residence in Tehran”. Iran’s president vows to make Israel ‘regret cowardly action’, as Supreme Leader Khamenei says avenging Haniyeh’s killing is Tehran’s duty.
There was no immediate comment from Israel. The Israeli military said it was conducting a situational assessment.

Hamas Leader Haniyeh Assassinated In Iran By Israeli Strike - Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps has confirmed the death of Ismail Haniyeh, the top political leader of Hamas, during an inauguration event for Iran’s new president. Haniyeh, who is based in Qatar, and an Iranian security guard were reportedly killed at their place of residence.IRGC: Head of Hamas political bureau Ismail Haniyeh martyred in Tehran.#Hamas #Iran pic.twitter.com/HDQwlh3Xzv Israel had vowed to kill Hamas leaders soon after the group’s incursion on Oct. 7.The attack follows a strike by Israel on Beirut on Tuesday that targeted senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr. Shukr, reportedly the mastermind behind a recent attack that killed 12 children in the Golan Heights, is believed to have died in the strike. The Lebanese health ministry reported that the strike killed three civilians, including two children, and injured 74 others.The death of the Hamas leader took place just hours after a significant portion of Israeli airspace was closed for unexplained reasons.NOTAMs have been issued in Israel, resulting in the closure of a significant portion of Israeli airspace.The NOTAMs were reportedly issued after a situational assessment.pic.twitter.com/FJjk3Xf5aj July 31, 2024 Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had vowed a stern response to the Golan Heights strike, which Hezbollah denied responsibility for. Lebanon’s current prime minister condemned the airstrike and plans to file a complaint with the U.N. Security Council.In Tehran, during the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian, senior figures from groups within Iran’s “axis of resistance,” including Haniyeh, were present. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is killed with one of his bodyguards in Tehran. pic.twitter.com/widFinIbnF Shortly after his speech asserting support for Palestinians, news of Haniyeh’s assassination broke. Immediately after the news of Haniyeh's death broke, multiple reports emerged that Hamas vengeance would be swift. Member of the Hamas Political Bureau, Musa Abu Marzouk said that the assassination of Haniyeh is a cowardly act and will not be in vain.

A 'Watershed Event': Five Takeaways From Israel's Assassination Of Hamas' Political Leader In Tehran - Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated by Israel early Wednesday morning in the heart of the Iranian capital hours after attending President Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration. The details remain unclear, but it’s widely thought that he was killed by a precision drone strike at his residence. The world is watching to see whether Iran and/or its Resistance Axis allies will respond, what form it could take if so, and whether that would escalate tensions to a wider war. Here are five takeaways thus far:

1. Israel’s Intelligence & Tactics Are Top-Notch - Israel somehow or another obtained accurate intelligence about Haniyeh’s location despite it being top-secret and was then able to successfully assassinate him. Whatever air defenses (including electronic warfare ones) that Iran had deployed in its capital as part of the security measures to protect its high-profile guests failed to thwart this attack. This is a major embarrassment for the Islamic Republic and prompts speculation about whether it was due to utter incompetence or was partially an inside job.
2. Iran Is Caught In A Dilemma Over How To Respond. It’s unimaginable that Iran won’t respond to its Israeli enemy assassinating a high-profile allied guest in Tehran during the new president’s inauguration, but the dilemma is over the form that this response will take. Launching another drone and missile salvo against Israel like it did in the spring after the bombing of its consulate in Damascus is possible, though Israel could spin that as a failure if many of them are shot down like last time, the on-the-ground damage is minimal, and no high-profile targets are killed.
3. Mutually Assured Destruction Hangs Heavy Over Everyone’s Head. The response that Iran resorts to will be determined by its leadership’s understanding of how far they can go without triggering the “mutually assured destruction” (MAD) scenario, which both Israel and the Resistance Axis fear and is why they’ve thus far restrained themselves from waging all-out war. A repeat of spring’s salvo could remain below that threshold, but Iran might also respond in a different way that’s interpreted by Israel as an escalation, thus prompting its own escalation that could then lead to MAD.
4. A Choreographed Response Might Therefore Be The Most “Rational”… Duma member Dmitry Belik, whose claim to fame was helping Sevastopol reunify with Russia when he briefly served as the region’s acting head in spring 2014, described spring’s salvo as a “beautiful theatrical production”. If there’s any truth to his innuendo that Iran choreographed its response with the US and/or Israel to Israel’s bombing of its consulate in Syria, then it might also do the same after Haniyeh’s assassination, which could help Iran “save face” while averting an escalation towards MAD.
5. …But There’s No Guarantee That Iran’s Allies Will “Stand Down” ..Hamas and Hezbollah are Iran’s allies but operate independently of it despite their close ties. There’s accordingly no guarantee that they’ll “stand down” and not respond in their own way if Iran sends another salvo to Israel regardless of whether or not it’s choreographed. After all, Hamas’ political chief was just killed, while one of Hezbollah’s top commanders was assassinated by Israel in Beirut the day prior. This makes the MAD risk even less manageable since those two might not share Iran’s calculations.

Haniyeh’s assassination is a watershed event in the latest Israeli-Hamas War, which is now a regional Israeli-Iranian proxy war, since it greatly spikes the risk of everything spiraling into MAD. Iran’s response will be crucial in determining whether or not that happens, but so too will Hamas and Hezbollah’s. They’ll either “stand down” as Iran responds regardless of whether or not it’s choreographed, participate in a joint response that remains below the MAD threshold, or decide to cross that red line on their own.

NYT: Haniyeh Was Killed By A Bomb Israel Planted in Tehran Two Months Ago - Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed by a bomb Israeli intelligence planted at an official guest residency in Tehran about two months ago, The New York Times reported on Thursday.Haniyeh was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and had stayed at the guest residence on previous visits. TheTimes report, which cited five Middle East officials, two Iranian officials, and one American, said the bomb was detonated remotely when it was confirmed Haniyeh was in a room at the guest house.The explosion killed Haniyeh and his bodyguard at about 2:00 am local time. Hamas officials initially said a missile struck the building, but there was no sign of Israeli warplane activity in the area.Axios also reported Haniyeh was killed by a bomb planted at the guest house in advance by the Israeli spy agency Mossad. The residency was heavily guarded by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC), and the assassination demonstrates the Mossad’s deep reach within the Islamic Republic.. The Israeli killing of Haniyeh was likely designed to sabotage both ceasefire negotiations with Hamas and any chances of the US and Iran engaging in sanctions relief. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is considered a moderate, pledged to work to get sanctions lifted in his inauguration speech.

Ayatollah Says 'Severe' Revenge Coming For Israel Killing Hamas Leader On Iranian Soil --The world just woke up to a new Middle East on Wednesday which stands on the precipice of major war between Iran and its proxies and Israel, following the overnight Israeli assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the top political leader of Hamas, during an inauguration event for Iran’s new president. Haniyeh, who is based in Qatar, and an Iranian security guard were killed reportedly while in the Iranian capital. Hamas has since condemned the "treacherous Zionist raid on his residence in Tehran." Iran is vowing "severe" punishment, with the Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, announcing in English and Farsi on X, "The criminal, terrorist Zionist regime martyred our dear guest in our territory and has caused our grief, but it has also prepared the ground for a severe punishment."And Iran's newly sworn-in president Masoud Pezeshkian in a statement cited in state media said the country will "defend its territorial integrity, dignity, honor, and pride, and will make the terrorist occupiers regret their cowardly act." Taking out Haniyeh was the second high-profile assassination attributed by Israel in a matter of hours, following the Tuesday airstrike in Beirut that killed Hezbollah’s top military leader and right-hand man to Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, Fuad Shukr. That attack was massive and on a neighborhood and buildings in the south of the capital, with Lebanon’s Health Ministry saying three people, including two children, have been killed, with at least 74 wounded. Emergency workers are still searching under the rubble, and thus the civilian death toll is likely to rise further. And now there are emerging reports of another Israeli air raid - this time on Syria's capital of Damascus (unconfirmed) - with likely casualties. A large cloud of smoke was seen rising over the Damascus suburb of Sayyidah Zaynab at around 3pm local time. It is an area which sees a constant influx of Iranian religious pilgrims, and Israel has bombed it frequently, saying each time it is targeting Iranian military assets and proxies. Adding to this volatile mix, the US military also overnight launched its first military action in Iraq in months, reportedly striking militia combatants who attempted to launch a drone attack. The Pentagon is calling the new military action a defensive airstrike.The US State Department and US administration have reportedly expressed confusion at the rapid series of Israeli actions in the last hours...

Iran seeks revenge on Israel, sparking fears of all-out war - Iran and its proxies are vowing to punish Israel for the apparent assassination of top Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, bringing the two countries closer to an all-out war in the Middle East. Israel, which has not acknowledged the strike in Iran, said one of its primary goals in the war against Hamas is the death of its top leaders, including Haniyeh. But Haniyeh’s death on Iranian soil, just more than three months after Iran directly fired at Israel with hundreds of missiles and drones in an unprecedented attack, is a major escalation in the already spiraling conflict across the Middle East. It also comes just one day after Israel killed the top military leader of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon’s capital of Beirut, where war has been threatening to break out for months. Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the risk of a regional war is growing, which he speculated would begin with a larger Israeli-Hezbollah conflict. “It would evolve into Iranian involvement because Iran could not stand by and see [Hezbollah] decimated by the Israelis,” he said of a wider war. “I don’t think we’re going there. I think where this is probably heading is a series of episodic confrontations, which could get pretty intense.” Asher Kaufman, professor of history and peace studies at the University of Notre Dame, said that “by targeting these two top leaders, the Israeli government demonstrated that it is willing to take the risk of a full war.” “We are certainly closer to a downward spiral today than we were yesterday,” Kaufman said in an email. “It seems like all parties, including Israel, are not interested in a full-scale war, but at the same time, all continue to inch forward toward that possibility. The Middle East is by far in a moment of extreme fragility and uncertainty about the future.” Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promised a “harsh punishment” for the Wednesday strike that killed Haniyeh and his bodyguard at his residence while he was in Tehran to attend the inauguration of the newly elected Iranian president. “Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge,” Khamenei said on social platform X. Khamenei, later on Wednesday, ordered his forces to respond, according to The New York Times. Hamas and other Iranian-backed groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, also quickly condemned Israel for the killing of Haniyeh and vowed retaliation for the attack. The Haniyeh strike showed the vast capabilities of Israeli intelligence and exposed a weakness in Tehran to defend the nation, putting pressure on Iran to respond with strength. But experts say Tehran does not likely have the resources or appetite for another massive attack on Israel like it did in April. That attack followed the death of several members of Tehran’s paramilitary group Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which Israeli forces struck near the Iranian Embassy in Syria. Instead, Iran may respond through its proxies. The most likely attack will come from Lebanon, where Hezbollah has been firing artillery and rockets at Israel for nearly 10 months in a campaign tied to the Israeli war against Hamas in Gaza. Hezbollah may already be weighing a response after a Tuesday Israeli strike in Beirut killed Fuad Shukr, the right-hand man and principal military adviser to Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. That Israeli strike came in response to a Hezbollah rocket attack on a soccer field in Israel that left 12 children and teenagers dead.

Israeli Police Detain Soldiers Suspected of Raping a Palestinian, Sparking Protests - On Monday, Israeli military police detained Israeli soldiers who were suspected of raping a Palestinian prisoner at the notorious Sde Teiman prison in southern Israel. Israeli media reported that the Palestinian prisoner was transferred from Sde Teiman to a hospital with an injury to his anus that was so severe he could not walk.When the Israeli military police went to Sde Teiman to detain soldiers suspected of forcibly sodomizing the Palestinian man, they were met with resistance. A security source told Haaretz that Israeli soldiers at the facility refused to leave and barricaded themselves in. They also reportedly used pepper spray on the military police.The police ended up detaining nine out of 10 of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers suspected of abusing the Palestinian detainee. The arrest of the suspected rapists sparked protests from far-right Israeli activists.Members of the Israeli Knesset joined protesters as they stormed Sde Teiman, including Zvi Sukkot of the Religious Zionism party. At least one member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition was spotted among the protesters, Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu, a member of the Jewish Power party. Later in the day, protesters stormed Beit Lid, the base where the Israeli soldiers are being held. Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of the Jewish Power party, praised the detained Israeli soldiers, calling them the “best heroes” and denouncing their arrest as “shameful.”

Israeli Lawmaker Says Raping Palestinian Prisoners Is 'Legitimate' - A member of the Israeli Knesset has defended the idea of raping Palestinian prisoners after Israeli soldiers suspected of sexually torturing a detainee at the Sde Teiman detention facility were arrested.The arrest took place on Monday, sparking protests from far-right activists, including several members of the Knesset and at least one minister in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition.In a meeting of lawmakers on the day of the arrest, Hanoch Milwidsky, a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party, was asked if it was legitimate “to insert a stick into a person’s rectum?”Milwidsky replied, “Yes! If he is a Nukhba [Hamas militant], everything is legitimate to do! Everything!”According to Haaretz, the Palestinian prisoner who was raped suffered from a ruptured bowel, a severe injury to his anus, lung damage, and broken ribs and was taken to the hospital for an operation.The Times of Israel reported that two out of the ten soldiers arrested for the rape were released on Wednesday and that they were not the main suspects. The report also said that Honenu, a legal aid organization representing four of the soldiers, claimed the soldiers were acting in self-defense when they forcibly sodomized the Palestinian prisoner.The condition of the prisoner confirms some of the worst allegations made by Palestinians who were previously held in Sde Teiman. Younis al-Hamlawi, a senior nurse who was detained by Israeli forces in Gaza after he left Al-Shifa Hospital over allegations that he was tied to Hamas,told The New York Times that Israeli soldiers penetrated his rectum with a metal stick, causing him to bleed and leaving him in “unbearable pain.”The Times report said a leaked report from the UN “cited a 41-year-old detainee who said that interrogators ‘made me sit on something like a hot metal stick and it felt like fire,’ and also said that another detainee ‘died after they put the electric stick up’ his anus.”

Erdogan Says Turkey Could 'Enter' Israel Like It Did in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh - On Sunday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared to threaten military intervention against Israel, saying Turkey could “enter” Israel as it did in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh.“We must be very strong so that Israel can’t do these ridiculous things to Palestine. Just like we entered Karabakh, just like we entered Libya, we might do similar to them,” Erdogan said in a televised address. “There is no reason why we cannot do this … We must be strong so that we can take these steps.”Starting in 2020, Turkey, a NATO member, began deploying military advisors and thousands of Syrian mercenaries to Libya to support the UN-backed Government of National Accord.Turkey also strongly backed Azerbaijan’s 2020 assault on Nagorno-Karabakh by providing weapons and political support. The conflict ended in 2023 with Azerbaijan completing the ethnic cleansing of the over 100,000 ethnic Armenians who lived in Nagorno-Karabakh.Turkey denied that it intervened directly in Nagorno-Karabakh, but during the 2020 war, there were allegations that Ankara sent mercenaries recruited from Syria to fight for Azerbaijan.In response to Erdogan’s comments about intervening in Israel, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz warned the Turkish leader could be the next Saddam Hussein, who was toppled and later executed following the 2003 invasion of Iraq. “Erdogan follows in the footsteps of Saddam Hussein and threatens to attack Israel. Just let him remember what happened there and how it ended,” Katz wrote on X.

Erdogan threatens Turkish military intervention against Israel --President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said in his hometown Rize on Sunday that Turkey could intervene militarily against Israel to “protect the Palestinians”. “We should be very strong, so that Israel cannot do this stuff to Palestine. Just like we entered Karabakh, just like we entered Libya, we can do similar to them. There is no reason not to do it. We must be strong to take these steps.” Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz responded on X: “Erdogan is following in the footsteps of Saddam Hussein and threatening to attack Israel. He should remember what happened there and how it ended.” Former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was executed in 2006 after the US invasion of Iraq. The Turkish Foreign Ministry responded to the Saddam Hüssein analogy with a Hitler analogy: “Just as the end of the genocidal Hitler came, so too will be the end of the genocidal Netanyahu. Just as the genocidal Nazis were held accountable, those who seek to destroy the Palestinians will also be held accountable. Humanity will stand with the Palestinians. You will not be able to destroy the Palestinians”. The dangerous escalation between the Israeli and Turkish bourgeoisies, two reactionary allies of US-NATO imperialism, is a warning that the US-NATO-backed Israeli genocide in Gaza could lead to a Middle East-wide war. As the US uses the Gaza genocide as a springboard to escalate a regional war against Iran and its allies, Israel is stepping up preparations for a counter-offensive in Lebanon. Erdogan’s statement follows Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to the US Congress on July 24 and China’s hosting of an agreement between Palestinian organisations. In his statement on Netanyahu’s visit to Washington on Saturday, Erdoğan targeted both the US and Israel, saying: “The other day, we all watched those disgraceful scenes in the US House of Representatives. Frankly speaking, we were ashamed of what we have seen there in the name of humanity... Rolling out the red carpet for someone like Netanyahu, going even further and applauding his lies until their palms swell, is a major abdication of reason for America.” Last week, 14 Palestinian organisations, including Hamas and Fatah, met in Beijing and signed the ‘Beijing Declaration’. According to the agreement, in which Ankara played no role, all the organisations will be united under the umbrella of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), headed by Mahmoud Abbas, and a temporary government of national reconciliation will be formed. Palestinian Authority President Abbas was invited to Turkey to coincide with Netanyahu’s visit to the US. Erdoğan responded to Abbas’ refusal to accept this invitation by saying, “Mr Abbas, who did not come although we invited him, should first apologise to us”. In Turkey, which has NATO’s second largest army and hosts numerous US-NATO bases, the Erdoğan government’s response to the Gaza genocide has been marked by hypocrisy. The government’s first reaction after October 7 was one of caution and restraint. It called for a ceasefire and invited the Israeli state and Hamas to the table. The events of October 7 have undermined the process of normalisation with Israel that Turkey has been pursuing in recent years, based on interests in the natural gas resources of the eastern Mediterranean. Ankara also fears that it could be drawn into a war against Iran, which would damage the interests of the Turkish bourgeoisie, because of US imperialism’s drive to dominate the Middle East.

Italy To Restore Diplomatic Ties With Syria - Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has announced that Italy will appoint an ambassador to Syria for the first time in 12 years.According to The Associated Press, Tajani said one reason why Rome was restoring ties with Damascus was to “prevent Russia from monopolizing diplomatic efforts in the Middle Eastern country.”The step to normalize relations with the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad comes after Italy and seven other European Union members sent a letter to Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, urging a different approach toward Syria and a re-evaluation of sanctions on the country.Tajani said Italy received support to normalize with Syria from the other seven signatories to the letter, which include Austria, Croatia, Greece, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Cyprus, and Slovakia.At least five EU countries have some sort of diplomatic ties with the Assad government, including the Czech Republic, which never cut ties with Damascus. Greece re-opened its embassy in Damascus in 2021.The US says that it’s strongly opposed to other countries restoring ties with the Assad government, but that has not stopped a growing trend of normalization. More and more countries are accepting the regime change effort against Assad has failed. Last year, Syria was re-admitted to the Arab League, and Saudi Arabia re-opened its embassy in Damascus.The US maintains crippling economic sanctions on Syria that are designed to prevent the reconstruction of the country, which naturally has adevastating impact on the civilian population. The US also keeps an occupying force of about 900 troops in eastern Syria and backs the Kurdish-led SDF.

EU Transfers $1.6 Billion from Frozen Russian Assets To Buy Arms for Ukraine - The EU on Friday announced it was transferring about $1.6 billion in frozen Russian Central Bank assets to Ukraine for the purchase of weapons.The step is the first time the EU has dipped into the frozen Russian assets to fund the proxy war and marks a significant escalation of the Western economic campaign against Moscow.The transfer came after the EU agreed to provide Ukraine with about $3.2 billion per year using the profits made by the Russian assets. The EU has also agreed to a US-proposed plan to loan $50 billion to Ukraine and pay it back using frozen Russian funds, but it’s unclear when that will go through.According to Euro News, 90% of the $1.6 billion will go toward weapons, and 10% will be spent on humanitarian aid. But the money is being wired directly into the Ukrainian government’s budget, and it’s unclear if there’s any real oversight.Russia has vowed that it will respond to the EU or any Western country stealing its Central Bank assets. Western banks have warned against the plan to send Russian assets to Ukraine as they fear it will open them up to legal action if they’re involved in any of the transfers.Ukrainian Justice Minister Denys Maliuska previously called the EU’s plan to provide the $3.2 billion each year “almost nothing” and demanded that Kyiv receive the approximately $300 billion in Russian Central Bank assets that are held by Western countries.

Russia Overnight Launched Single Biggest Drone Attack On Kiev Since War's Start - While the world's attention has been focused on the Middle East since Israel's overnight killing of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh at one of his residences in Tehran, resulting in the the potential for bigger regional war, Ukraine's air force has said it repelled one of the largest Russian drone assaults of the conflict.An overnight attack by Russia resulted in a reported 89 drones and one missile being intercepted over the Kyiv region. It marks perhaps the single biggest drone attack ever focused on the capital region, with Kyiv city administration head Serhiy Popko also describing "one of the most massive drone attacks on Ukraine during the entire war." Explosions were also reported over the other Ukrainian regions of Mykolayiv, Dnipro, Sumy and Poltava. Ukraine's military identified many of the inbound projectiles in the capital region as Iran-made Shahed-131/136 strike drones. "Today Ukrainian air defense withstood and repelled a massive attack by enemy drones," an air force statement said. There have been at least half a dozen prior drone attacks, albeit on a much smaller scale, on the area in the month of July. This latest sent over 11,000 people into the safety of metro stations during the assault in which drones came in multiple waves from "all possible directions," city authorities said.Apparently there were such large numbers of drones due to the presence of unarmed decoys, as Reuters details:Military spy agency spokesman Andriy Yusov said in televised remarks that Russia had used a "significant" number of decoy drones that were not loaded with explosives to try to deplete Ukraine's air defences and also identify their locations.The major new assault appears retaliation and 'punishment' from Moscow for a Ukraine cross-border operation which happened Sunday, reportedly resulting in damage two Tu-22M3 bomber planes parked at an airfield in Murmansk, in Russia's far north. Ukraine's government had hailed it as another successful long-range drone strike on a Russian base: "Destroying the enemy’s aircraft that is striking Ukraine is a priority. We can reach it everywhere," announced Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s presidential administration.

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