More Fed officials line up behind September rate cut (Reuters) - Two more Federal Reserve officials on Thursday gravitated toward an interest rate cut next month as solid economic data prompted financial markets to further scale back bets the U.S. central bank would kick off its monetary easing cycle with a bigger-than-usual reduction in borrowing costs. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic had previously been more wary than many of their colleagues about lowering borrowing costs too soon. Recent data "has bolstered my confidence" that inflation is returning to the central bank's 2% target rate, Musalem said during an event in Louisville, Kentucky. "It now appears the balance of risks on inflation and unemployment has shifted ... the time may be nearing when an adjustment to moderately restrictive policy may be appropriate." Musalem, however, was swift to emphasize the economy was still "doing very well" and pointed to positive factors, such as growth in labor supply, as part of the reason for a recent uptick in the unemployment rate to a post-pandemic high of 4.3%. Investors, who last week were betting the Fed would have to cut rates by half a percentage point at its Sept. 17-18 meeting following weaker-than-expected labor market data, are now pricing in a roughly 75% probability of a quarter-percentage-point cut next month. The dying down of the clamor for a large rate cut, which reflects encouraging data on inflation, jobless claims and retail sales, could allow Fed policymakers to proceed with their preferred gradual approach in calibrating ongoing policy restrictiveness amid a slowdown in inflation rather than having to respond urgently to prop up the labor market. The U.S. Labor Department reported this week that the annual increase in the consumer price index slowed in July to below 3% for the first time in nearly 3-1/2 years, while a mild rise in producer prices last month also indicated inflation was firmly back on a downward trend. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims fell to a one-month low and retail sales surged in July, underlining the continued strength in consumer spending. "The ongoing resilience of consumer spending should ease recession fears ... the combination of gradually cooling economic growth and inflation justify a measured pace of easing," said Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. The central bank began raising its benchmark overnight lending rate in March 2022, pushing it from the near-zero level to the current 5.25%-5.50% range. It has remained there for the past year. In an interview published in the Financial Times on Thursday, Bostic also said he is open to a rate cut at the September meeting, a change from his previous expectation for this year of a single quarter-percentage-point reduction in borrowing costs in the fourth quarter. "Now that inflation is coming into range, we have to look at the other side of the mandate, and there, we've seen the unemployment rate rise considerably off of its lows," he said. "But it does have me thinking about what the appropriate timing is, and so I'm open to something happening in terms of us moving before the fourth quarter." Bostic, who spoke before the latest jobless claims data was released, added he would consider reducing rates in half-percentage-point increments if the labor market weakens faster than expected.
Fed rate cut looms—a September slash is expected, but the size of the cut is unknown Stocks rose after an in-line U.S. inflation report did little to alter bets the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in September. The S&P 500 headed toward its fifth straight day of gains, the longest winning streak in more than month. Most of its major groups advanced, with financial and energy shares leading the charge. Treasuries saw small moves. The dollar hovered near a four-month low. The consumer price index reinforced the trend of disinflation and brought a degree of relief to markets still reeling after last week’s meltdown. Combined with a softening job market, the Fed is widely expected to start lowering rates next month, while the size of the cut will likely be determined by incoming data. “It may not have been as cool as yesterday’s PPI, but today’s as-expected CPI likely will not rock the boat,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Now the primary question is whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points next month. If most of the data over the next five weeks points to a slowing economy, the Fed may cut more aggressively.” At Evercore, Krishna Guha said the July CPI was not perfect, but it was good enough as it was consistent with a tame read on the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. In addition, the central bank has disavowed data-point dependence, and is looking at the wider outlook and balance of risks, with downside risks to employment dominating since the July employment report. “This is now a labor data-first Fed, not an inflation data-first Fed, and the incoming labor data will determine how aggressively the Fed pulls forward rate cuts,” Guha noted. The S&P 500 hovered near 5,455. Megacaps were mixed, with Nvidia Corp. up and Alphabet Inc. down. Wall Street’s “fear gauge” – the VIX – continued to subside, dropping below 17. That’s after an unprecedented spike that took the gauge above 65 last week. Treasury 10-year yields declined two basis points to 3.82%. “The stress of the market decline is a fading memory,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “Calming macro fears, the return of share repurchases, and stabilizing momentum provide an improved backdrop for equities.” The latest consumer price report “checked the box” for the Fed to start cutting rates in September, according to TD Securities’ strategists led by Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg. “Today’s CPI report is again unambiguously welcome news for the Federal Reserve,” they said. “As risks have become truly two-sided for the US economy, if not slightly tilted toward downward employment outcomes, we expect the Fed’s upcoming decision to come down to the magnitude of the first rate cut.” To Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance, the July CPI print is the ultimate “no news, is good news” because the markets have been on edge and the Fed is looking to cut interest rates — and nothing in this report should deter them from doing so. “Recent volatility has largely been driven by macro news, and this is a case of ‘dull news is good news’,” said Neil Birrell at Premier Miton Investors. “It also allows the Fed breathing space as they weigh the economy ahead of their next meeting.” At Principal Asset Management, Seema Shah says the CPI print removes any lingering inflation obstacles that may have been preventing the Fed from starting the rate cutting cycle in September. Yet, the number also suggests limited urgency for a 50 basis-point cut. “It offers little new information to guide the future decisions of the Fed, aside from potentially supporting a rate cut due to job market concerns,” according to Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “The soft CPI report will likely give Fed officials modestly more confidence that inflation is on the way down,” said Anna Wong and Stuart Paul at Bloomberg Economics. “Even though July’s core PCE inflation print won’t be as good, we expect the Fed to cut rates in September due to the rising unemployment rate.” Traders are still pricing in just over 1 percentage point worth of rate reductions in 2024, with three Fed policy meetings remaining this year. In recent sessions, market pricing had shown a split on the outcome of either 25 or 50 basis points worth of rate reductions next month.
Vance doubles down on Trump call for bigger role in interest rates -- Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance said determining monetary policy should be a "political decision" and the White House should play a more active role in setting interest rates. Vance's comments came during an interview with CNN on Sunday. They bolster remarks made by former President Donald Trump only days earlier, who said during a wide-ranging press conference that he would like "at least a say" about the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate.Vance — a current member of the Senate Banking Committee — did not elaborate on how the president would go about influencing monetary policy, but he acknowledged that allowing for executive input would amount to a "huge change" for the Fed."President Trump is saying, I think, something that's really important and actually profound, which is that the political leadership of this country should have more say over the monetary policy of this country," he said. "I agree with him. That should fundamentally be a political decision."Trump has been a frequent critic of the central bank. In 2018, he opposed the Fed's efforts to lift interest rates off their lower bound and toyed with the idea of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell — though legal experts say he likely could not have done so. During this campaign, Trump has promised to lower interest rates while also warning the Fed not to play politics in the run-up to this fall's election — something Powell said the central bank would not do.Trump's proposition threatens to undermine the concept of Fed independence as it has broadly been understood for decades, as a technocratic institution insulated from political whims. But policy experts note that this approach to central banking is rooted in a set of agreed upon best practices rather than an immutable right."If you dig into what is actually keeping this arrangement working, it's not the law, it's the fact that it's a tradition that has been carried along and worked very well," said Derek Tang, co-founder of Monetary Policy Analytics. "If you dig into how it actually works in practice, it's through the discipline of different actors in the financial policy system not to disturb the equilibrium."Powell, who has repeatedly defended the value of the Fed's independence in recent months, has also noted that this approach to central banking is not ironclad.
US Records 2nd Biggest July Deficit In History As 25% Of Tax Revenue Go To Pay Interest While there was much more talk about the soaring US budget deficit earlier this year, when debt seemed to rise by $1 trillion every other month, lately it appears that the topic has become almost taboo perhaps because neither presidential candidate has any plan or clue how to normalize the trend which assures fiscal collapse for the US and the loss of dollar reserve status.But while others may have conflicts of interest in reporting on this most important topic, we don't, and we are sad to inform our readers that July was another catastrophic month for US fiscal viability: that's because US tax revenue of $330.4BN (down sharply from the $466.3BN in June, if higher than the $276.2BN a year ago), was far below the $573.1BN in government outlays (which was materially above the $537.2BN in June and also the $496.9BN last July)....... resulting in a monthly deficit of $243.7BN, the second largest July budget deficit on record, surpassed only by the record post-covid print in July 2021.With two months left in the fiscal year, the US budget deficit for fiscal 2024 has hite $1.517 trillion, tracking last year's blowout expansion almost dollar for dollar (one year ago the cumulative deficit was $1.613 trillion), and the 4th highest on record despite there being no raging emergency and no war demanding such a massive deficit spend.Unfortunately, that's as good as it gets, because when one takes a step back and ignores the monthly calendar effects, the picture remains the same: the US is spending far more than it is generating in tax revenues.In fact, at $581BN, the 6-month moving average (to smooth out month-to-month changes) in US government spending has risen to the highest level since August 2021, when the US was still reeling from the covid shock.
Federal Fiscal Burden Consumes 93% Of America's Wealth Based on data from a U.S. Treasury report, the federal government has amassed $142 trillion in debts, liabilities, and unfunded obligations. This staggering figure equals 93 percent of all the wealth Americans have accumulated since the nation’s founding, estimated by the Federal Reserve to be $152 trillion.Unlike other measures of federal red ink that cover an arbitrary period, extend into the infinite future, or ignore government resources, the figure of $142 trillion applies strictly to Americans who are alive right now and includes the government’s commercial assets.Thus, it quantifies the financial burden that today’s Americans are leaving to their children and future generations.Federal law requires the U.S. Treasury to publish an annual report that details the government’s “overall financial position.” In addition to the national debt, the “Financial Report of the United States Government” also includes the government’s explicit and implicit financial commitments, such as:
- • federal employee pensions and other retirement benefits like healthcare.
- • environmental liabilities like contaminated nuclear sites.
- • unfunded obligations for social insurance programs like Medicare.
Such “fiscal exposures,” as explained by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), “represent significant commitments that ultimately have to be addressed.” Thus, GAO stresses that ignoring them can “make it difficult for policymakers and the public to adequately understand the government’s overall performance and true financial condition.”Yet, that is precisely what the media does. Although the Treasury published the report in February, Google News indicates that no major media outlet has mentioned it. Meanwhile, the same outlets have frequently reported on the national debt and federal budget, which are incomplete measures of the federal government’s fiscal situation.The commonly cited national debt and federal budget are mainly based on cash accounting, which is the simplistic process of counting money as it flows in or out. Thus, liabilities like pension benefits for federal workers aren’t measured until they are actually paid, which is often decades after they are promised.In contrast, the Treasury report mainly uses accrual accounting, which measures financial commitments as they are made. This is how the federal government requires large corporations to report their finances. In the words of the Financial Accounting Standards Board, which is tasked by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to create private-sector accounting rules, accrual accounting is the “most relevant and reliable” way to measure the financial health of pension plans.The same applies to other retirement benefits like healthcare. The accounting rule that governs such benefits explains that “a failure to accrue” implies “that no obligation exists prior to the payment of benefits.” Since an obligation does exist, failing to account for it “impairs the usefulness and integrity” of financial statements.A methodical tally of accrual accounting data in the Treasury report shows that the federal government has amassed $142 trillion in debts, liabilities, and unfunded obligations beyond the value of its commercial assets. This reflects the government’s finances at the close of its 2023 fiscal year on Sept. 30, 2023.The primary components of this burden, which are unpacked below, include:
- • $26.3 trillion in publicly held national debt.
- • $16.6 trillion in liabilities that are not accounted for in the publicly held debt.
- • $104.2 trillion in unfunded social insurance obligations.
These figures tally to $147.1 trillion in debts, liabilities, and unfunded obligations. Offsetting this is $5.4 trillion in commercial assets owned by the federal government, leaving a grand total shortfall of $141.7 trillion.
About 40% Of Biden-Harris' IRA Projects Face Delays --President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris signed the Democrats' Inflation Reduction Act and Chips and Science Act in 2022, promising to lower inflation and make life more affordable for Americans. However, the reality has been quite the opposite, as the federal government embarked on a spending spree of taxpayers' dollars. Even VP Harris recently admitted on the camping trail that acost of living crisis persists. Two years after Biden-Harris' Inflation Reduction Act and Chips and Science began offering some of the $400 billion in tax credits, loans, and grants to promote the development and promotion of clean energy across the country while expanding the semiconductor supply chain, a number of projects have been delayed or paused. A newly published investigation by the Financial Times reveals that nearly 40% of Biden's key industrial and climate projects (each valued over $100 million) have been delayed or put on hold. FT said that's about $84 billion worth of projects sitting idle. It added the total value of projects tracked by its investigative team was approximately $228 billion. The delays raise significant questions about big government's ability to effectively manage the industrial transformation across the US to rebuild the Heartland's industrial capacity. Here's a map of the delayed or paused manufacturing projects. The uninspiring success rate of these projects, with many not on track as they should be, is a national management issue that extends all the way to the top. In the private sector, such dismal performance would not be tolerated.Considering the US is in a race to expand its manufacturing base and reduce reliance on China as global conflict threats continue to surge - the dismal success rate so far needs to be reviewed by lawmakers on Capitol Hill to understand if the most qualified folks are managing the projects.
Forty Percent of Biden IRA Manufacturing Projects Behind Schedule or Paused - by Yves Smith - The Financial Times has done some useful reporting in its new lead story, Forty per cent of Biden’s major IRA manufacturing projects delayed or paused. However, it’s hard to know what the “so what” of this analysis is without having context. Is this number good, bad, or in line with expectations? We’ll get to the meat of the findings soon, but some of the unanswered questions were:
- What were the timing//completion expectations? Did they make adequate allowance for normal teething delays?
- How do these results compare to similar non-government manufacturing initiatives in these particular industries?
- How many of these projects (particularly ones going well) were things that the companies were planning to do anyhow? This is a general risk of subsidies and incentives, that they often wind up paying for things that would have happened regardless.
In other words, unless there is a basis for comparison, it is hard to know what these findings mean. Admittedly, given the many industries and projects, it would take a vast amount of work for the pink paper to have come up with a solid answer. But they could at least have acknowledged the need for good benchmarks and gotten some quotes from experts. Separately, it is curious that the Financial Times ran this story, framing it as critical of the Administration. The Financial Times, like most of the orthodox media, has been solidly in the anti-Trump camp. Is this article a reflection of a different Financial Times loyalty, to strong-form neoliberalism, so that dirigisme is suspect and must be undermined when it rears its ugly head? The data summary: The authors also conducted over 100 interviews of companies and state and local official. That’s an analytically sound approach to help understand results. However, it appears they were using this method primarily to gather anecdotes rather than help qualify what the findings said about program performance. For instance, as we’ll see, some of the delays were the direct result of how the Biden Administration launched the program, specifically that deficient guidelines slowed up the launch of many projects. But other interviewees report that they paused or cancelled projects out of fear that an incoming Trump Administration would cancel or hamstring the program. So the interview findings are more atmospheric than diagnostic. Additional impediments are arguably in the “shit happens” category, such as difficulty in finding workers or a slackening of demand. But again, in at least some of these cases, there is more here than meets the eye. For instance, faltering EV demand in the US is significantly due to US automakers not being able to make these vehicles to meet a low enough price point….when the Chinese can. And adequacy of supply of charging stations is another US buyer concern. Snippets from the story: The US president’s Inflation Reduction Act and Chips and Science Act offered more than $400bn in tax credits, loans and grants to spark development of a US cleantech and semiconductor supply chain. However, of the projects worth more than $100mn, a total of $84bn have been delayed for between two months and several years, or paused indefinitely, the FT found… The delays raise questions around Biden’s bet that an industrial transformation can deliver jobs and economic returns to the US, which has offshored its manufacturing for decades. A point this humble blog and many other have raised is that restoring manufacturing prowess, even if that can be achieved, will take one to two decades. The US has not only ceded far too many skills at all levels (not just the factory floor but also supervisors and managers) but also has gutted public education, meaning many workers may not be able to fill important roles without remedial training. For instance, I have seen more than occasional complaints from manufacturers that they can’t find workers who can read blueprints or worse, are too weak in reading and numeracy to fill certain roles. Back to the story:Among the largest projects on hold are Enel’s $1bn solar panel factory in Oklahoma, LG Energy Solution’s $2.3bn battery storage facility in Arizona and Albemarle’s $1.3bn lithium refinery in South Carolina. While many delays have been made public, others have not been announced. Forty minutes away from Albemarle’s inactive site is a facility where semiconductor manufacturer Pallidus said last year it would relocate its headquarters from New York and open manufacturing operations, investing $443mn and creating more than 400 jobs. Operations were expected to start in the third quarter of 2023, but the building sits unused. “You’re holding your breath and seeing what transpires,” said Ted Henry, city manager of Bel Aire, Kansas, where Integra Technologies announced a $1.8bn semiconductor factory last year but has not moved forward with the project due to uncertainty over government funding. Henry was clearly willing to talk. Yet the reporter appears not to have probed to find out what “uncertainty over government funding” was about. We later see that this could be the reason…but why not firm that up? While the IRA’s tax credits extend until 2032 and the Chips Act awards generous funds to selected applicants, companies often cannot receive funding until they achieve certain production milestones. On the “government procedures holding things up,” the story later provides more examples: Nel Hydrogen, an electrolyser manufacturer, has paused its $400mn factory project in Michigan due to uncertainty over tax credit rules for hydrogen. Anovion, a battery parts manufacturer in Georgia, delayed its $800mn factory by more than a year due to lack of clarity over the IRA’s electric vehicle regulations. The article recites that participants announced over $220 billion in investments in the first year of the IRA, which includes projects “reshored” from abroad. But we then learn that many have run into high labor costs and supply chain issues. But we aren’t told what those supply chain problems were. The one example is actually downstream, not upstream. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company delayed a second fab. That whacked its suppliers Chang Chung Group and KPCT Advanced Chemicals who paused their projects. The article implies the latter two were also IRA beneficiaries but it not as clear as it should be. But in any event, the usual understanding of supply chain problems is being unable to get needed inputs, such as when automakers in the Covid recovery were hamstrung by being unable to get needed electronics. Here, we don’t know exactly why Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company postponed its second fab, but the loss of orders led suppliers to hold back on their expansions. The piece describes how the plunge in solar panel prices thanks to a Chinese glut and the oft-lamented weak EV demand in the US have led some IRA projects to be mothballed. Finally, the piece explains that the Republicans really hate the IRA, with no Team R Congresscritters supporting the legislation even when their districts could/would benefit. Ironically, here if beneficiaries in Republican districts were going ahead with their IRA enterprises, it would make it harder for an incoming Trump Administration to cancel them. They might need to find a way to finesse gutting the program while grandfathering projects that were underway. So delays and pauses out of political worries could be self fulfilling.
Navy Notifies Congress of Pending $11.5B, 4-Ship Amphibious Warship Deal - The Navy is preparing to award an estimated $11.5 billion multi-ship deal to build four amphibious warships, according to a copy of a Tuesday Navy notification to Congress reviewed by USNI News. According to the Aug. 14 notification, the Department of the Navy will purchase three San Antonio class Flight II amphibious warships and a Flight I America-class big deck amphibious warship starting in Fiscal Year 2025 to 2027 as part of a “multi-ship procurement,” authorized as part of the FY 2023 National Defense Authorization Act. “The ships procured as part of this contract will support amphibious assault, special operations, and expeditionary warfare missions of U.S. Marines, moving Marines into theater and supporting humanitarian and contingency missions on short notice,” reads the notification from Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro. “This amphibious MSP award demonstrates the Navy’s commitment to maintaining 31 amphibious warfare ships and prudence with taxpayer funds.” Politico first reported the notification on Wednesday. Tables provided to Congress by the Navy said LPD-33 would be procured in FY 2025 for an estimated $2.2 billion, LPD-34 in FY 2027 for $2.3 billion and LPD-35 in FY 2029 for $2.4 billion. The deal would also purchase Flight I America-class big deck, Helmand Province (LHA-10), for $4.6 billion. Overall, the Navy estimated that the multi-year ship buy would save a combined $901 million, or about 7.25 percent, of the cost of the four-ship deal. The ships will be built at HII’s Ingalls Shipbuilding in Pascagoula, Miss. A company spokesperson did not answer specific questions on the deal when asked by USNI News but did issue a statement. “We defer to the Navy regarding multi-ship procurement discussions. However, we reiterate our commitment to supporting the mission and the joint Navy and Marine Corps team by meeting the minimum requirement of 31 amphibious ships,” reads the statement. “Our shipbuilders stand ready to serve the nation.” The move received praise from the shipbuilding delegation in Congress. “Today is a great day for American shipbuilding and our Navy’s ability to deter China in the years ahead,” reads a statement from Senate Armed Services seapower committee ranking member Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.). “The multi-ship buy of warships is a cost-effective way to provide stability for the industrial base on key shipbuilding programs. The notification to Congress marks the end of a “strategic pause” in amphibious warship construction mandated by the Office of Secretary of Defense and in a reversal of the Navy’s former plans to shutter the San Antonio line, USNI News previously reported.
US Approves $20BN In Weapons Sales To Israel As Wider War Looms -- After already having given over $3 billion in annual foreign aid to America's number one ally in the Middle East stretching back years, the State Department has approved a series of potential weapons sales to Israel worth over $20 billion. This is the military-industrial complex's bread and butter: give allies huge amounts of foreign aid, and those dollars eventually return to line the pockets of the big US defense firms.The sales are expected to include some 50 F-15 fighter jets and tank munitions, advanced air-to-air missiles, tactical vehicles, and on top of all this 50,000 high-explosive 120mm mortar rounds.Some of this might be purchased with the $3.5 billion in military assistance recently released to Israel in the form of Foreign Military Financing.While it will take years before 50 F-15s and many of the heavier, more sophisticated weapons would be delivered to Israel, it comes at a moment of deep global divide related to Israel's ongoing military operations in Gaza.Hamas sources have said that nearly 40,000 Palestinians have been killed since the war began last October, or about 2% of the total population. Much of this killing is being done by US-supplied weaponry courtesy of the US taxpayer.The State Department in announcing the huge package said it is 'vital' to American interests:"The United States is committed to the security of Israel, and it is vital to U.S. national interests to assist Israel to develop and maintain a strong and ready self-defense capability. This proposed sale is consistent with those objectives."Currently, there's a growing divide within Israeli leadership over a path forward in the war, particularly after yesterday Fitch downgraded Israel's rating from A+ to A.Opposition leader Yair Lapid on Wednesday warned Israel is heading for an economic disaster under the policies Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich."The finance minister and prime minister both issued statements yesterday in which they said that the lowering of Israel’s credit rating is a result of the war," Lapid said. "That is a lie. Both of them are lying to the public."
U.S. Approves Massive Arms Sales to Israel, Waives Leahy Sanctions Against Abusive Israeli Military Unit Amid Ongoing Atrocities --The U.S. State Department has officially notified Congress of its intent to proceed with a new authorization for weapons to Israel, including 6,500 Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs) guidance kits to Israel, despite extensive evidence documenting the Israel Defense Force's (IDF) use of U.S. weapons to carry out war crimes and crimes against humanity, said DAWN today. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also announced his decision not to sanction the IDF's notorious Netzah Yehuda battalion, despite credible evidence of its systematic and gross human rights violations in the occupied West Bank, in violation of strict U.S. laws requiring the imposition of such sanctions. "It is mind-boggling that despite the overwhelming evidence of the IDF's unprecedented crimes in Gaza that has shocked the conscience of the entire world, the Biden administration is greenlighting the transfer of additional lethal weapons to Israel," said Sarah Leah Whitson, DAWN's executive director. "It is hard to comprehend how the Biden administration can justify rewarding Israel with new weapons, despite Israel's persistent defiance of every single plea the Biden administration has made urging a modicum of restraint, and despite the very apparent fact that such sales violate black letter U.S. laws prohibiting weapons to gross abusers like Israel."JDAMs, manufactured by Boeing, are kits that turn unguided bombs into precision-guided munitions. The Biden administration had delayed the sale since May 2024,reportedly to pressure Israel not to go into Rafah. Since then, despite multiple requests from the Biden administration for Israel to limit its offensive in Gaza, and the clear orders of the International Court of Justice for Israel to halt its incursion into Rafah, Israel has proceeded to carry out ruthless attacks on civilians throughout the strip. "Congress should introduce a Joint Resolution of Disapproval to halt this sale," said Raed Jarrar, DAWN's advocacy director. "Congressional oversight and debate are imperative, given the chaos within the senior staff of the White House, State Department, and Defense Department, which has led to an unprecedented wave of senior staff resignations over continued support for Israel's war in Gaza."There is extensive documentation identifying the use of U.S. weapons in atrocities in Gaza. In May 2024, the Biden administration issued a 46-page unclassified reportrevealing that Israel violated international law using U.S. weapons in its military campaign in Gaza. In April 2024, Amnesty International submitted a report to the federal government detailing how American bombs and other weapons have been used in Israeli attacks that could constitute war crimes. Israel used Boeing-manufactured JDAMs, exactly the weapons the Biden administration is now proposing to sell again to Israel, in October 2023 in "two deadly, unlawful airstrikes on homes full of Palestinian civilians," according to satellite imagery examined by Amnesty International's weapons experts and remote sensing analysts. "The Biden Administration has been relentless in its support for war crimes, and today's notification just adds a further count to the charges to which everyone from the President to a junior licensing officer is exposing themselves. At this point, there can be no claims of ignorance and no lack of foreknowledge of the harm these weapons will cause," said Josh Paul, DAWN's senior advisor. "Not only do these weapons pose a continuing threat to Palestinians in Gaza, but they may also indicate an American 'green light' for an Israeli attack on Lebanon, which will only increase and deepen the suffering of all people in the region."In addition, the State Department today announced its decision that it would not sanction the IDF's notorious Netzah Yehuda Unit, despite extensive evidence documenting the unit's role in gross violations of human rights, including the killing of U.S. citizen Omar Asad. Secretary Blinken informed Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant that the State Department would close the investigation into the battalion's human rights abuses without any punitive measures. This follows months of unprecedented delay and hindrance by Secretary Blinken to avoid sanctioning the Israeli unit despite the recommendations of the team in the State Department responsible for making sanctions determinations. According to Secretary Blinken, the decision was made because the IDF provided "evidence" that it had remediated the behavior of the battalion and addressed U.S. concerns by discharging the involved soldiers from combat missions and changing the vetting process for future soldiers."The Biden Administration's unwillingness to designate Netzah Yehudah under the Leahy Laws is not just a further endorsement of Israeli war crimes, but an egregious assault on the rule of law at home," said Paul. "I don't know how Antony Blinken looks at himself in the mirror."
Report: Israel Tells US That Iran Is Preparing a Large-Scale Attack - Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has told Secretary of Defense Lloyd Autin that Iranian military preparations show Iran is preparing for a large-scale reprisal attack against Israel, Axios reported on Sunday.The report said that a new Israeli intelligence assessment says that Iran is likely to launch an attack in response to the Israeli killing of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in the coming days. Israel previously thought Iran might have been rethinking the attack due to US pressure.Last week, Israeli officials discussed the possibility of launching a “preemptive strike” on Iran if they had intelligence that an Iranian reprisal attack was coming, which would just escalate the situation further.Sources told Axios that Israeli intelligence believes Iran might launch the reprisal attack before Thursday, the day the US, Qatar, and Egypt said they wanted hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas to restart.Iran’s mission to the UN said Sunday that Tehran is hoping its reprisal attack will not impede ceasefire negotiations. “We hope that our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire,” the mission said.The US is vowing to defend Israel from any Iranian attack and has deployed military assets to the region as a threat to Iran and its allies. Austin reiterated the pledge to Gallant, according to a Pentagon readout of the call.“Secretary Austin reiterated the United States’ commitment to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of US military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions,” Austin said.The readout said the deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group to the Middle East would be “accelerated.” It said Austin also ordered the deployment of the USS Georgia, a guided-missile submarine.
Israel Says Iran Poised For Major Retaliation; US Deploys Sub, Hurries Carrier Group -- In a significant shift in its recent assessment of Iran's intentions, Israeli intelligence reportedly now believes that Iran is preparing a major strike on Israel after all -- and that it will happen in the next few days. This comes after Israel had concluded that international pressure and US saber-rattling had persuaded Iran to leave it to Lebanese militant group Hezbollah to strike Israel for blowing up Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31.Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant shared his country's latest assessment with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in a Sunday conversation, Axios reported -- telling Austin that Iranian actions signify the country is readying a major strike. Also on Sunday, Gallant told an Israeli Defense Forces unit that Iran and Hezbollah "are threatening to harm us in a way they haven't done in the past."Israeli intelligence's see-sawing assessment reflects an ongoing debate inside the Iranian government, a source with access to the intelligence told Axios: The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps [IRGC] is pushing for a more severe and broader response than Iran's April 13 attack on Israel, but the new Iranian president and his advisers believe a regional escalation now wouldn't serve Iran's interests, the source said.A Pentagon spokesman said Austin assured Gallant that America is committed “to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of U.S. military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions.”The strengthening of the US force posture included the deployment of the USS Georgia guided missile submarine to the Central Command theater. Armed with up to 154 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles, the Kings Bay, Georgia-based vessel recently completed joint training exercises in the Mediterranean with force recon Marines and special operations forces, including units from the UK, Norway and Italy. Austin also ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, already steaming to the conflict zone laden with F-35C and F/A-18 fighters, to "accelerate its transit", the Pentagon said.
Iran and proxies may attack Israel this week, U.S. warns -- The U.S. on Monday said Iran and its proxies might attack Israel this week as fears grow that a large assault is imminent. White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the attack “could be this week,” agreeing with reports that Israel expects an attack within days. But Kirby said it’s unclear when exactly the attack might come. “We’re continuing to watch it very, very closely,” he told reporters. “We do share the assessment made by our Israeli counterpart that something could happen as soon as this week by Iran and its proxies.” There’s speculation that Iran could launch a major attack on Israel with rockets, drones or other weapons, but it could also be constrained amid cease-fire and hostage release talks between the Iranian-backed Hamas militant group in Gaza and Israel. Kirby added it was “difficult to ascertain” what the Iranian attack would look like. “But we have to be prepared for what could be a significant set of attacks,” he said. The U.S. has pledged to defend Israel, moving more military assets to the region as it prepares for the assault. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is set to replace another strike group, and the Pentagon has also sent a guided missile submarine and F-22 fighter jets. Washington helped defend Israel in an April Iranian attack that saw hundreds of drones and rockets fired from Iran. The missiles and drones were largely shot out of the sky by U.S., Israeli and allied Arab nations in the region. Iran is vowing revenge following what it said was an Israeli killing of a top Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, about two weeks ago in Tehran. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied the attack. Israeli forces also killed the top military commander of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon around the same time as Haniyeh’s death. Hezbollah is also promising to respond, raising fears that the militant group could attack at the same time as Iran, which could pose a far greater threat than the April Iranian assault. The fears also come as the U.S. is pushing Hamas and Israel to sit down Thursday and negotiate a cease-fire and hostage release deal, which is in its final stages. The deal is expected to bring home the 115 hostages in Gaza and create a pathway for a temporary cease-fire in Gaza, where more than 39,000 have died in 10 months of war. Kirby told reporters that the Iran attack may complicate those talks.
Airlines suspend flights as Middle East tensions rise (Reuters) - Concerns over a wider conflict in the Middle East have prompted international airlines to suspend flights to the region or to avoid affected air space.Below are some of the airlines that have adjusted services to and from the region:
Biden, European Leaders Tell Iran to 'Stand Down' Amid Frenzied Speculation --In a familiar refrain of the past several days, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Monday the military is on "peak alert" for an attack from Iran or Hezbollah. The White House too believes an attack is imminent or at least within "days" away. At the same time a senior Israeli official told Axios: "The Iranians openly signal (on the ground) their determination to carry out a significant attack in addition to their public statements that the attack will exceed the one they carried out in April."The official additionally observed that "Iranian public statements do not reflect any retreat." Warnings from the West urging Tehran to not retaliate have been on repeat for a week-and-a-half following the July 31st Israeli killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The US has been joined by European countries in calling on Iran to "stand down" amid reports of significant Iranian and Hezbollah weapons movement and positioning.US President Joe Biden alongside the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy issued a fresh joint statement Monday: "We called on Iran to stand down its ongoing threats of a military attack against Israel and discussed the serious consequences for regional security should such an attack take place," a joint statement said after their presidents and prime ministers spoke by phone.As for the IDF, its latest statement also described that the Israeli Air Force has increased its patrols over Lebanon "to detect and intercept threats." "We view the statements of our enemies seriously, and are therefore prepared at the highest level of readiness for defense and attack," it continued.Even the Vatican has tried to intervene toward preventing a broader regional war:Following Haniyeh’s assassination, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Haniyeh’s death would “not pass in vain,” and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that “blood vengeance” for the killing is “certain.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian furthered those threats on Monday, telling a Vatican official in a phone call that the assassination warrants Iran’s right to “self defense” and to “respond to an aggressor,” Iranian state news agency IRNA reported.Meanwhile amid fears of the wider Israeli confrontation with the 'Iran axis', the IDF has kept up its operations and strikes inside Gaza.
Biden Says He Expects Iran To Hold Off on Israel Attack If Gaza Ceasefire Reached - President Biden said Tuesday that he thinks Iran might not launch a retaliatory attack on Israel if a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal is reached.When asked if Iran might scrap its plans to retaliate for the Israeli killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran if Israel and Hamas clinch a deal, Biden said, “That’s my expectation.” However, he also said it was “getting harder” to reach an agreement.Qatar and Egypt are planning to host ceasefire talks this Thursday, although Hamas is calling for the implementation of a ceasefire proposal that President Biden unveiled back in May. Israeli officials also still believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s demands are an obstacle to any potential deal.Earlier on Tuesday, Reuters reported that Iran might delay its planned retaliatory strike on Israel could be delayed to allow ceasefire talks to progress. But Iran also publicly rejected calls from the UK, Germany, and France to reconsider attacking Israel.“Such demands are void of political logic, in complete contradiction to the principles and rules of international law, and excessive,” Iranian Foreign Minister Nasser Kan’ani said in response to the Western calls. “They are tantamount to public and practical support for the source of international crimes and terrorism in the region and encourage and reward the masterminds and perpetrators of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity.”Kan’ani added that Iran was “resolved to defend its national sovereignty and security, and help establish sustainable stability in the region and create deterrence against the genuine source of insecurity and terrorism in the region.”A day earlier, the White House said it was prepared for Iran and potentially its allies to launch a “significant” attack on Israel. The US is vowing to defend Israel and has deployed additional assets to the Middle East solely for that purpose.
Alaskan F-22 Fighters Forward Deployed to Support Israel Against Iran: Qatari Airbase Plays Host The U.S. Air Force has forward deployed 12 F-22 Raptor fifth generation fighters to an unconfirmed location in the Middle East. The aircraft are permanently stationed at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska, and transferred through Royal Air Force (RAF) Lakenheath in the United Kingdom before being forward deployed under the U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for the Middle Eastern theatre. The deployment comes as part of a broader surge in the American military presence in the region, which is intended to maximise Washington’s ability to respond to expected military retaliation by Iran against America’s close security partner Israel. Israel on July 31 launched an unprecedented attack on the Iranian capital Tehran. Among the casualties from the Israeli strike was Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau Ismail Haniyeh. Iran previously responded to an Israeli attack on its territory in April, after an Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus killed two senior generals and 11 others, many of them diplomats. When Iran subsequently retaliated with drone and missile strikes on Israeli targets on April 13, an increased American military presence in the region was key to blunting the impact of the attacks. The expansion of the American military presence thus follows the pattern seen in early-mid April. The F-22 is one of two fifth generation fighter classes fielded by the United States and its allies, and was intended to serve as a heavier more capable counterpart to the cheaper F-35. Issues with the F-22 program, however, resulted in a 75 percent cut to planned production, with the aircraft’s avionics increasingly considered obsolete, particularly compared to new. F-35 variants and to the rival Chinese J-20 fifth generation fighter. The F-22 was initially intended to partly bridge the range gap between top American and Russian fighters favouring the latter, although the program failed to meet these requirements resulting in a fighter with the shortest ranged of any in the world of its size. This is a serious limiting factor in the Middle East in particular, where aircraft are required to cover vast distances for offensive operations, and would see their stealth capabilities compromised by carriage of external fuel tanks or by refuelling operations in the air. Although F-22s were previously stationed at Al Dhafra Airbase in Abu Dhabi, where they were employed for incursions into Syrian airspace to confront Russian and Syrian forces, as well as for strikes on targets in Afghanistan, there have been multiple indications that basing in the country is no longer favoured. The U.S. Air Force in May notably transferred multiple fighter units from bases in the United Arab Emirates to its facilities in Qatar, following a growing rift in relations between Washington and Abu Dhabi as the UAE government made clear it would not allow American air strikes on neighbouring countries from its soil unless it was informed beforehand. The UAE has resisted American pressure to ban the use of telecommunications equipment from the Chinese firm Huawei, and in 2021 also became the first Gulf state ever to place orders for Chinese fighter planes, while Western sources have also alleged that the country has begun to host Chinese military facilities on its soil. These among other factors have led Washington to seek to reduce reliance on military facilities in the country. Unlike Abu Dhabi, Doha has aligned itself very closely with Western Bloc interests, and is accordingly designated a Major Non-NATO Ally of the United States. Alongside F-22s, Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar is reported to have also begun hosting a squadron of U.S. Navy 5th Fleet F-18E/F Super Hornet fighters and an E-2 airborne early warning and control system on August 7. Al Udeid notably first hosted F-22s in June 2019.
White House Says US Is Prepared To Defend Israel From 'Significant' Attack - The White House said Monday that the US is prepared to defend Israel from a “significant” Iranian reprisal attack as the US continues to bolster its forces in the region.The US and Israel are expecting Iran to launch its response to the Israeli killing of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, and think the attack could happen this week. Iran’s allies, including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi Shia militias, may participate in the operation.“We share the same concerns and expectations that our Israeli counterparts have with respect to potential timing here. Could be this week,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters. “We have to be prepared for what could be a significant set of attacks.”The US helped defend Israel when Iran launched its first-ever attack on Israeli territory in April, which was provoked by the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria.“We obviously don’t want to see Israel have to defend itself against another onslaught, like they did in April. But, if that’s what comes at them, we will continue to help them defend themselves,” Kirby said.A day earlier, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, that he had ordered the deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group to be “accelerated.” He also told Gallant that the US is sending the USS Georgia, a guided-missile submarine.“Secretary Austin reiterated the United States’ commitment to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of US military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions,” the Pentagon said in a readout of the call.The new pledges from the US to defend Israel came after a poll conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that the majority of Americans (56%) oppose the idea of using US troops to defend Israel from Iran.
State Department Approves Over $20 Billion Arms Package for Israel - On Tuesday, the State Department approved a series of potential weapons sales to Israel worth over $20 billion that includes F-15 fighter jets and tank munitions. The approval comes as Israeli airstrikes continue to slaughter civilians in Gaza, including newborn twins who were killed hours before the State Department announced the new support for Israel.In total, the US announced five new arms deals for Israel. The biggest is for 50 F-15 fighter jets and related equipment, worth $18.8 billion. Israel will also receive $102.5 million in advanced air-to-air missiles, about 33,000120mm tank cartridges worth $774 million, 50,000 high-explosive 120mm mortar rounds worth $61.1 million, and $583.1 million worth of medium tactical vehicles. It’s unclear how much of the massive weapons sale will be funded by US military aid. The announcement came a few days after the State Department said it was releasing $3.5 billion in military assistance for Israel in the form of Foreign Military Financing, a program that gives foreign governments money to buy US weapons.It will take years before the F-15s and other weapons will be delivered to Israel, although, according to Reuters, the tank rounds would be almost immediately available for delivery. The notification begins a period where Congress could potentially block the sales, but it’s expected to breeze through since only a few dozen progressive Democrats are opposed to arming Israel.The approval of the deals shows strong support from the Biden administration for Israel’s genocidal war, which according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians, or about 2% of Gaza’s entire population. The Health Ministry’s numbers are believed to be a low estimate since it doesn’t account for thousands of people who are missing and presumed dead under the rubble or others who have died due to indirect causes.
Washington intensifies preparations for Middle East war with $20 billion arms sale to Israel - The decision by the United States to supply arms worth $20 billion to Israel one day after announcing the deployment of a second aircraft carrier strike group to the region marks a further step towards a Middle East war. Backed by the entire ruling class, the Biden administration is determined to wage a catastrophic conflict targeting Iran, which it views as one front in a global eruption of imperialist violence against its rivals, which can only be stopped by the independent political mobilisation of the international working class. This is the inescapable conclusion that must be drawn from a review of the contents of the arms sale. After facilitating Israel’s genocide in Gaza for over 10 months, the Biden administration plans to deliver over 50 F-15 fighter jets, advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles, 120mm tank ammunition, high explosive mortars and tactical vehicles. The delivery of the full fleet of jets is anticipated to take five years to complete. From the purely military point of view, there is no conceivable use for such a vast arsenal in Gaza, which has already been bombed to smithereens and where Hamas fighters possess at most rudimentary short-range rockets that rarely endanger any target inside Israel. Israel’s urgent need for such weaponry only makes sense in the context of advanced preparations against more sophisticated opponents, such as the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon and Iran itself, which have the capacity to shoot down Israeli aircraft and strike the country directly with long-range missiles. As Socialist Equality Party (SEP) presidential candidate Joseph Kishore explained in a statement condemning the arms sale, There is a sinister subtext to the Pentagon announcement. Israel already has unquestioned air superiority in the region. The sole purpose of this weapons sale is to replace anticipated losses in a war with Iran and its allies, which could erupt at any moment. The Biden-Harris administration wants to ensure that Israel can continue pulverizing the people of the Middle East without missing a beat. The latest arms sale was preceded by unmistakable signs that Washington wants a region-wide war. From the outset of Israel’s genocide last October, US government officials have made clear that their endorsement of the “final solution” of the Palestinian question is bound up with plans to fight Iran, a key ally of Russia and China in the Middle East. After Israel bombed Iran’s consulate in Damascus in April, killing seven senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps members, American and other NATO military assets helped ward off Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel with drones and missiles. Israel’s latest outrageous provocation, the assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran within hours of each other in late July, prompted Washington to announce the $20 billion arms deal and grant Israel $3.5 billion from the $14 billion aid package passed by Congress in April to purchase US-made weaponry immediately. In addition, the Biden administration lifted a three-year arms embargo on Saudi Arabia, Iran’s arch rival in the region. With Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, having reaffirmed their right to retaliate against Israel’s assassination of Haniyeh, the Biden administration is goading Tehran into launching a strike that can then be used to justify further escalation. American and Israeli politicians no longer make any secret about the fact that Iran is a target for attack. During his address to a joint session of Congress in July, Netanyahu openly proclaimed his intention to wage war in alliance with US imperialism against Iran, for which he received bipartisan standing ovations. “If you remember one thing, one thing from this speech, remember this: Our enemies are your enemies, our fight is your fight, and our victory will be your victory,” he declared to rousing cheers. “Iran understands that to truly challenge America, it must first conquer the Middle East … Yet in the heart of the Middle East, standing in Iran’s way, is … the State of Israel.”
Antiwar.com Joins Journalists in Letter to Blinken Calling for End to US Military Aid to Israel - Antiwar.com has joined 19 other news outlets, seven press freedom organizations, and 113 journalists in a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken calling for the US to end weapons transfers to Israel to stop supporting the slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza.The letter was initiated by the Courage Foundation, Defending Rights & Dissent, and Roots Action and focuses on the Israeli targeting of journalists in Gaza.“Since October 7, 2023, Israel has killed more than 160 Palestinian journalists. This is the largest recorded number of journalists killed in any war. While Israel’s indiscriminate bombing of the densely populated Gaza means no civilians are safe, Israel has also been repeatedly documented deliberately targeting journalists,” the letter reads.The letter notes that the mass killing in Gaza would not be possible without US weapons and support. “Israel’s military actions are not possible without US weapons, US military aid, and US diplomatic support. By providing the weapons being used to deliberately kill journalists, you are complicit in one of the gravest affronts to press freedom today,” it says.Besides targeting Journalists with bombs, the Israeli government has also cracked down on the press, including by shutting down Al Jazeera in Israel. “Israel has gone to great lengths to suppress media coverage of its war in Gaza, imposing military censorship on both its own journalists and international reporters operating in the country; and, with Egypt’s help, blocking all foreign journalists from Gaza. Israel shut down Al Jazeera, raided its office, seized its equipment, and blocked its broadcasts and website within Israel,” the letter reads.The letter points to US foreign assistance laws that prohibit military aid to countries credibly accused of human rights violations. ” Israel’s well-documented pattern of extrajudicial executions of journalists is a gross violation of human rights,” it says. The letter concludes by urging an immediate halt to US military support for Israel. “The US is providing the weapons Israel continually uses to target Palestinian journalists in Gaza. This is a violation of International law and US domestic law. We urge you to immediately cease the transfer of all weapons to Israel,” it reads.
Hamas Calls for Implementation of Ceasefire Proposal Unveiled by Biden - On Sunday, Hamas released a statement calling for the implementation of a hostage and ceasefire deal with Israel that was previously unveiled by President Biden. President Biden unveiled the proposal on May 31, and it was backed by the UN Security Council in a resolution passed on June 10. The proposal is for a three-phase deal that, if fully implemented, would permanently end Israeli military operations in Gaza.Biden claimed the proposal was approved by Israel, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the idea of a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. He later added new demands as a way to sabotage the chances of a deal being reached.Hamas said that it wanted to implement the deal instead of restarting hostage negotiations to discuss new proposals, which the Palestinian group said would “provide cover for the occupation’s aggression.”Hamas said that it “demands that the mediators present a plan to implement what they proposed to the movement… based on Biden’s vision and the UN Security Council resolution, and compel the occupation to comply.”The demand from Hamas came after the US, and the mediating countries — Qatar and Egypt — released a statement calling for Israel and Hamas to resume negotiations. The talks had been suspended since Israel killed Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. Haniyeh has been replaced by Yahya Sinwar, the group’s leader in Gaza.Qatar and Egypt believe that Israel won’t agree to a ceasefire deal unlessthere is real pressure from the US, which has refused to use its significant leverage over Israel. The US has not publicly blamed Netanyahu for the lack of an agreement, even though Israeli officials and media outlets have widely acknowledged that his demands were thwarting a deal.
Hamas Reaffirms That It Wants Ceasefire Deal Presented By Biden - --On Wednesday, Hamas reiterated that it wants to implement a ceasefire proposal that was unveiled by President Biden in May instead of restarting hostage deal talks with Israel. “The movement demands a clear commitment by the [Israeli] occupation to what was agreed upon on July 2, according to the clarifications conveyed by the mediators, and if that happens, the movement is ready to enter into the mechanisms for implementing the agreement,” Hamas politburo member Suhail al-Hindi told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed. Al-Hindi also said Hamas would not participate in hostage deal talks that are set to be held in Doha on Thursday since the Palestinian group thinks Israel will use them as cover to continue the genocidal war in Gaza. However, an Arab official downplayed Hamas’s comments about boycotting the talks, saying the group is willing to meet with mediators right after the talks. “The format will effectively be the same as previous rounds of negotiations,” an Arab official told The Times of Israel. The official said that since Israel and Hamas have refused to negotiate directly, Israeli and Hamas negotiators have never been in the same room during negotiations. Officials from the US and Egypt will also be involved in the talks. Arab mediators recently said the only way a deal will be reached is if the US uses the significant leverage it has over Israel, which it hasn’t done. The US continues to provide unconditional military support for the slaughter in Gaza and is pledging to defend Israel as it is preparing for a reprisal attack from Iran. After Biden unveiled the ceasefire proposal that Hamas says it wants, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu worked to sabotage the chances of an agreement. Now, Israeli officials are still concerned that the new demands that Netanyahu asked for during previous negotiations will still be an obstacle to a deal.
"Another Massacre" --Caitlin Johnstone --They bombed the Tabeen school in Gaza City with so much explosive force that not a single full body was recovered. It was just pieces of people everywhere. They bagged body parts in 70-kilogram piles to try and estimate a death toll. It was impossible to identify bodies or sort out which parts belonged where. Just one big stretch of undifferentiated carnage. Kind of like how the entire Gaza onslaught is starting to feel. These massacres are all starting to blur together, like the lifeless bodies ripped apart and mixed together in bags. We westerners say “another massacre” when we talk about it, referring to it as just one more nightmare in an uninterrupted deluge of nightmares that’s been going on for ten months. But it wasn’t “another massacre” for the people who were there. For the woman whose foot that used to belong to. For the boy who used to own that arm. For the man whose intestines those once were. For them it was the end of the world. For their loved ones it was unfathomable anguish. Each and every one of these victims in each and every one of these massacres felt as much as you and I, cared as much as you and I, hoped and dreamed and loved and longed like you and I, and was just as capable of suffering as you and I. Their bodies intermingle in the wreckage and the massacres intermingle in our memories, but we can’t just let it all blur together into background white noise. We can’t let this become our baseline. Our new normal. We can’t let them do that to us. We can’t let them rob us of our humanity like that. Do not let them harden you. On top of everything else they’ve taken from this world, don’t let them take your caring and sensitivity as well. Every death in that school was just as significant as the earliest deaths when this nightmare first began. The only thing making us see it as “another massacre” is our reflex to avoid feeling it all for the first time from moment to moment. But this is all happening for the first time. That woman had never died before. Neither had that boy, or that man. All their hopes and dreams and plans were cut off for the very first time. All their experiences. All their relationships. Everything they had to share. Those endings deserve a bit more weight and a bit more reverence than having been part of just “another massacre”. It’s safe to feel. It might hurt, but it won’t harm. We can just pause, put our hands over our hearts, feel the feelings deeply and respectfully all the way through, and then get back into the fight to try and stop this thing. The victims deserve our sorrow. We deserve to have wide open hearts full of compassion. And the monsters who are doing this absolutely do not deserve to take it away from us.
He Had Two Babies -Caitlin Johnstone -- He had two babies. Twins. Aysal and Aser, a boy and a girl.Mohammad Abu Al Qumsan had two babies and a loving wife.Now he has nobody.An Israeli airstrike killed both his babies, and their mother, and their grandmother, while he was out collecting their birth certificates. They had just been born.There’s a video of him screaming, screaming the way any of us would scream. The screams of a man who suddenly lost everything a man could possibly lose. Screaming Gaza’s screams. Sometimes it feels weird that we’re not all screaming like that man all the time, as long as we share a planet with this nightmare. Sometimes I kind of want to. It often feels like an obnoxious sacrilege that our civilization hasn’t stopped dead in its tracks while this happens day after day, month after month, with the full-throated support of our own western governments. How we’re still going to movies and dinners and laughing and joking while those bloodcurdling screams are erupting from Gaza. It feels like waltzing outside the extermination camp and trying to ignore the smell of the black smoke coming from the chimneys.We look like lunatics. We are acting as crazy as someone whistling and dancing in the middle of a roaring house fire. Surely it would be a hell of a lot saner to be screaming all the time than to be going along our merry little way like this horror isn’t happening. But that would be socially inappropriate. It would make people uncomfortable. Here, in this dystopian civilization, it’s considered rude to even bring it up.
Peace Is Not On The Ballot In November - Caitlin Johnstone -- I keep seeing liberal commentators like George Takei trying to frame Kamala Harris as the best candidate to bring peace to the middle east, despite her coming directly out of the administration which has been lighting the region on fire with its insane warmongering.So let’s be clear here: Peace is not on the ballot in November. Americans are voting for Red War or Blue War. That’s it. Those are the choices.I repeat: Peace. Is. Not. On. The. Ballot. Nobody who stands an actual chance at winning is going to bring about peace, because the US president is a manager of the US empire, and the US empire depends on constant warmongering.Any debates over whether Trump or Harris are the one to bring about peace are nonsensical, because neither of them are. It’s like arguing over which car salesman might start handing out free cars — that’s not the job. It’s not what the people who have that job do. Americans don’t get to vote on changes to US foreign policy; that can only come by way of mass-scale direct action. These elections are here to give Americans the illusion of democratic control and to let them feel okay about their political systems so they don’t start thinking about revolution. It’s all about feelings, so if you want to vote then vote in whatever way makes your feelings feel nice. That’s all this performative spectacle is ever about.All this murderousness will only come to an end when enough people use the power of their numbers to force it to end, and people will only use the power of their numbers to force it to end when enough of them have awakened from their propaganda-induced coma to get a real revolutionary movement happening. So that’s where the focus needs to be. Not on which empire manager you should vote for, but on sowing the seeds of revolution by showing as many people as you can that everything they’ve been trained to believe about their nation, their government and their world is a lie. Showing them how depraved their rulers are and how badly they’re being screwed over by exploitative status quo systems, and letting them know that a better world is possible.
Democrats Are Pigs - Caitlin Johnstone --Author Stephen King has a new viral tweet featuring a picture of himself wearing a Kamala Harris t-shirt modeled after an Obama campaign sticker captioned with the words “I’M SPEAKING” — a phrase with which she drew headlines and severe public outcry last week by using it to shut down anti-genocide protesters at a campaign rally in Detroit.That’s right: they’re using her condescending shutdown of pro-Palestine demonstrators as a fun girlboss campaign slogan now.God damn it I hate Democrats so fucking much.It’s actually kind of obnoxious that Gaza gets framed as a “political” issue at all. If you turned into an alleyway and saw a man dismembering a child, would your reaction to what you were witnessing be “political”? We’re all witnessing raw video footage of horrific atrocities every day; our reaction to this is not comparable to our opinions about prison reform or fiscal policy.This idea that professors shouldn’t discuss “politics” in class with regard to an active genocide, or that a pianist deserves to have his concert canceled because he expressed “political views” by dedicating a piece to the journalists who’ve been killed in Gaza, or that we shouldn’t bring up Gaza in polite company because it’s talking about “politics” — these are symptoms of a civilization that has gone stark, raving mad. Our visceral response to what we are witnessing is no more “political” than our reaction to someone stomping on puppies would be “political”. This isn’t one of those “oh yeah well you have your opinion and I have mine and that’s cool” things. Human beings are being butchered by the thousands in full view of the whole world. You don’t get to run cover for this by filing it away under the label of political opinion.
Cost rising for US as it fights off Houthi drones - Politico - President Joe Biden says the U.S. isn’t at war anywhere in the world. But one giant asterisk to that claim is what’s been happening for nearly a year in the skies over the Red Sea.U.S. forces have launched roughly 800 missiles and seven rounds of air strikes against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels that have controlled Yemen since November in what has become the most sustained military campaign by American forces since the anti-ISIS air war in Iraq and Syria that reached its height in 2016-2019.The battle in the Red Sea has been pushed into the background with the world’s attention fixed on the U.S. presidential election and higher-profile conflicts such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s war in Gaza. But an expected Iranian attack on Israel in the coming days will almost certainly rely heavily on proxies in Lebanon and Yemen, putting the U.S. ships in the region in the middle of the fight.Speaking at a virtual event on Wednesday, Vice Adm. George Wikoff, commander of Naval Forces Central Command, said the Houthis are well armed and have strong and consistent supply lines into Iran, “and are looking for a reason to use it.”While the group is claiming that its latest attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea are aimed at Israeli vessels, the reality is they’re attacking anything they can hit. Wikoff said 25 civilian ships have been attacked by the Houthis between 2016 and October 2023.The Navy is knocking down most of those drones and missiles targeting commercial shipping, requiring the U.S. to deploy warships to the Red Sea for months. The extended deployments “will impact [deployment] decisions two years from now, three years from now” across the globe, Wikoff said.Rep. Joe Courtney of Connecticut, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Seapower panel, said the extended operations will put pressure on lawmakers to raise the Pentagon budget by more than the Biden administration sought for the coming year.“I think it’s clear that … we’re going to have to come to grips with either going up higher with the topline,” Courtney said, adding that lawmakers may need to deliberate on whether a supplemental “will be on top of that.” The extended combat deployments are “stressing our Navy,” Courtney added.The length and uncertain endgame for the Red Sea mission, which has pulled in so many high-end American assets including multiple aircraft carriers, destroyers, cruisers and air wings stationed in the region, has frustrated members of Congress.“We are burning readiness to the tune of tens of billions of dollars for what really amounts to a ragtag bunch of terrorists that are Iran proxies,” said Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), who chairs the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness. “Iran is the core of the issue.”Defense officials counter those arguments by pointing out that the Navy has always been in the business of protecting commercial shipping, and the intensity of the Houthi attacks using explosive-leaden uncrewed boats, missiles and drones demanded a response from the international community.British, French, Dutch and Japanese ships have all sailed alongside American warships over the past nine months, though the bulk of the action has been borne by the American ships.Day after day, it is primarily the U.S. Navy that has been fighting off waves of inexpensive, mass-produced drones launched by Houthis targeting shipping in the Red Sea. And day after day the drones keep coming, forcing the American military to burn through hundreds of multi-million dollar missiles on a mission with no end in sight. It’s a battle that has emerged as the United States’ most expansive and enduring military operation currently underway, a campaign that risks chewing through munitions the Pentagon would rather stockpile for a potential confrontation with China. It also in some ways contradicts Biden’s declaration last month, as he announced that he was ending his reelection campaign, that he is the first president of this century to “report to the American people that the United States is not at war anywhere in the world.” The fight is being fueled largely by Iran with some help from Chinese companies selling dual-use components that can be used in drones and other equipment, leading the Biden administration to slap sanctions on Houthi and Iranian individuals and companies. Despite that, the supply lines into Yemen remain open. In response to the risk to commercial shipping, the U.S. has parked aircraft carriers and missile defense destroyers in the Red Sea for months on end, spending time and money on a fight that costs Tehran little and pulls ships and assets from other missions in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere.
Yemen's Inexpensive Drones Wreaking Expensive Havoc - As the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia continued to conduct siege warfare in Yemen, the Houthis threatened to use drones to attack the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia if the blockade and daily bombardments of Yemen continued. In October 2019, the Houthis used ten drones to attack the Saudi Aramco facility, knocking it offline for days and causing the global oil markets to spiral for weeks after the attack. A few months later, in January 2022, the Houthis launched a sophisticated drone attack on the illustrious UAE capital of Abu Dhabi. The Houthi attack on Abu Dhabi seemed to shake the Emirates into rethinking their war strategy in Yemen, and less than a month later, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE were locked in peace talks. More recently, the Houthis have used drones to form a blockade of the Red Sea, throwing a stick into the bike spokes of global trade. According to the Armed Conflict Location Event Data project, Operation Prosperity Guardian has been successful in knocking down roughly 75% of the Houthi drones launched into the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, but the problem is the missiles they are using to shoot down Houthi drones cost millions of dollars, and the Houthi drones cost thousands of dollars. Legacy media outlets spew a common misconception that the Houthis are getting these drones directly from Iran despite the fact that the UN Panel of Experts on Yemen concluded that components to build the drones are smuggled from abroad and manufactured locally in Yemen. Iran gave the Houthis the blueprint to create their own drone fleet in 2018; the drones fired from Yemen are developed and manufactured in Yemen. The United States gave Iran the blueprints to start its nuclear program in the 1950s. Does that mean that the United States is responsible for Iran’s nuclear program? The Houthis first made their drone program public in 2017, but it had little to no impact on the war in Yemen until technology from Iran expedited the Houthi drone program in 2018, and in April of that year, the Houthis announced their first successful drone attack. According to an ACLED report from 2019 to 2020, the Houthis launched over 100 drone attacks, with the majority of them targeting Saudi Arabia and coalition forces in Yemen. Most of these attacks were conducted using one-way Qasif-1 suicide drones, and in 2021, the group was introduced to multi-use commercial drones that could drop different weapons and return to base. Over the next two years, the Houthis continued to develop their drone program, unveiling their multi-use drone fleet of short and long-range drones like the Mudhud-1, Rujum, Mersad-1, Mersad-2, Sammad-3 and Sammad-4.The Houthis used their new fleet to change the course of the war in Yemen. In 2021, the Houthis launched 280 successful drone attacks, with half of them hitting their targets in Saudi Arabia and the other half targeting the Houthis domestic foes in Southern and Western Yemen. The following year, the Houthis carried out 240 drone attacks, most of them pummeling forces loyal to the GCC coalition and the Internationally Recognized government of Yemen, driving them to the bargaining table for peace talks in April 2022. After a truce was reached in the nine-year war in Yemen, Houthi drone attacks outside of Yemen came to a halt. The Houthis started to use the drones more in their domestic battles to support ground initiatives like the assault on Marib in mid-2022.That all changed in October 2023 when tensions between Hamas and Israel reached a boiling point after a string of attacks that killed over 1,200 Israelis, marking the largest attack on Israeli soil in the nation’s history. The world is still waiting for the region to break out into a much larger war, and geopolitical minds pointed to all the normal players like Hezbollah and Iran while completely ignoring the Houthis. Even when the Houthis threatened to attack international trade if Israel did not halt its bombardment of Gaza, Israel, the United States, and the rest of the global world scoffed at the idea that the Houthis could actually impact international trade. Since November 2023, the Houthis have launched 360 drone attacks, with over 50% of them targeting international waters.Simon Heaney, senior manager of container research for Drewry, told the AP that at least 90% of container ships that used to travel through the Red Sea are now rerouting around Africa. According to Germany’s Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the cost to send a standard 40-foot container ship from China to Europe went from $1,400 to $4,000. After one month of the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea, economists estimated an overall 1.3% decline in world trade during the 2023 Christmas season, and sea traffic passing through the Bel el Mandeb strait fell by 60%. By May of 2024, traffic at the port of Eilat, Israel’s only Red Sea port, ground to a halt, profits had fallen by 80% since the Houthi imposed blockade, and theJerusalem Post announced the port of Eilat filed for bankruptcy.Tensions between the Houthis, Israel, and the United States go back decades and did not start when the Houthis began their blockade of the Red Sea. The Houthis first burst onto the scene in 2002 as they held protests for days outside the Great Mosque in Sanaa against America’s invasion of Iraq. The US was offended that the protesters were chanting “Death to America and Death to Israel” and asked President Saleh to quash the protests. Yemeni police and troops arrested over 650 Zaydi revivalists in widespread crackdowns, and a 10 million dollar reward was offered to anyone in Yemen who killed or captured the group’s leader, Hussein al-Houthi. Tribal militias that rivaled the Zaydis teamed up with local police and government troops to attack Zaydi villages in the northern province of Sada to force out Hussein al-Houthi until he was eventually killed. This was when the Believing Youth Movement of Zaydi revivalists transitioned into being the armed militia group the world now knows as the Houthis. Since October 7th, the Houthis have attacked Israel 53 times; the most significant attack occurred on July 19th when a drone launched from Houthi-controlled Yemen traveled 1,600 miles, subverting Israel’s air defenses before crashing into a high-rise in Tel Aviv, killing one Israeli and injuring four others. Yemen has proven that its drone program can not only change the tide of its civil war but also change Yemen’s standing on the global stage. The question the United States and Israel should be asking themselves is how they allowed such a drastic intelligence failure. They sat back on their hands as a former youth group with zero governing experience performed a geopolitical checkmate, shutting down one the most vital waterways in the world. The US and Israel often brag about being the global leaders in military intelligence and strategic awareness, yet they completely whiffed it as a volatile nation rapidly developed a drone fleet that could disrupt global commerce, travel over 1,500 miles undetected, and penetrate one of the most protected airspaces in the world.
US Resumes Offensive Weapons Sales to Major Human Rights Abuser: Saudi Arabia -- One issue that has slipped beneath the radar in terms of news coverage is the recent decision by the Biden administration to resume the sale of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia. For starters, the U.S. will be sending a shipment of bombs worth $750 million in the coming months. These weapons were cut off by the Biden administration in 2021 because the Saudis were using them in Yemen in their war against the Houthis, killing thousands of civilians. The resumption of the sale of offensive weapons is part of U.S. efforts to push the Saudis to normalize relations with Israel. In 2020, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) signed normalization agreements that are collectively known as the Abraham Accords. These deals were brokered primarily by the Trump administration. Some of the countries that signed on, such as the UAE, view the accord not only as a way to bolster trade, but as a military alliance against their historical rival, Iran. For the Saudis, however, normalization has been pushed off the table by the Israeli assault on Gaza and public sympathy for the Palestinians. A December 2023 survey by the pro-Israel Washington Institute for Near East Policy found that a near unanimous 96 percent of Saudis say that Arab countries should break all contacts with Israel to protest against Israeli attacks in Gaza. The Saudis say that Israel must first end the war in Gaza and, even more elusive, create a credible pathway to a Palestinian state. Saudi Arabia has told the United States it will not open diplomatic relations with Israel unless it agrees to accept an independent Palestinian state on the internationally-recognized pre-1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital. Such a Palestinian state is precisely what Prime Minister Netanyahuand the Knesset are dead set against. But U.S. officials still want to push for normalization, and the Biden administration has offered a series of incentives, including negotiating a defense pact and an agreement for civil nuclear cooperation. The U.S. also wants to build closer Saudi ties to drive a wedge into the peace process between Saudi Arabia and Iran that was brokered by China last year, and to counter the inroads that China is making in the region. More immediately, the U.S. wants Saudi cooperation in repelling Iranian retaliatory attacks on Israel. In mid-April, when Iran retaliated against the April 1 Israeli airstrike that killed a top Revolutionary Guard commander in Syria, the Saudis, along with Jordan and the United Arab Emirates,cooperated with the U.S. and Israel in repelling some 300 missiles and drones that Iran fired on Israel. The Israelis are now bracing for another Iranian response to the killing in Tehran of Hamas political leader Ismael Haniya. But the arms sales violate the Biden administration’s earlier promises of a new approach to Saudi Arabia that would focus on human rights. In 2020 Biden vowed to treat Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler, as a “pariah,” mainly because of the 2018 assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Despite recent cosmetic openings like musical concerts and some real reforms like giving women the right to drive and the abolition of the religious police, Saudi Arabia remains one of the most repressive countries in the world. While U.S. officials regularly criticize elections in neighboring Iran, there are no elections in Saudi Arabia. It continues to be one of the last remaining absolute monarchies in the world. You don’t have to look at the damning reports from groups like Amnesty International and Human Right Watch to see the extent of Saudi repression. Just look at the U.S. State Department’s 2023 human rightsreport. It talks about extrajudicial killings; enforced disappearance; torture; life-threatening prison conditions; arbitrary arrest and detention; lack of an independent judiciary; punishment of family members for alleged offenses by a relative; violence against journalists and press censorship; serious restrictions on internet freedom, religious freedom and freedom of movement, including the right to leave the country; bans on independent trade unions; violence against gay and transgender persons; and the excessive use of the death penalty. Remember: this stinging critique is coming from the US government–a major ally of the Saudis. Sending more weapons to the Saudis will only strengthen this repressive regime and increase regional conflicts. But, of course, it will also increase the profits of weapons companies, such as Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman. That, in turn, increases the campaign coffers of our politicians. So the U.S. government is authorizing the sale of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia, while it continues to tout itself as the defender of the “free world.” Go figure.
Gaza war protesters shut down 405 Freeway during morning commute --A group of demonstrators blocked part of the 405 Freeway in Los Angeles during Tuesday morning’s commute. The group appeared on the southbound side of the freeway near National Boulevard in LA’s Westside around 9 a.m. According to California Highway Patrol (CHP) Officer Mike Naser, the freeway was shut down at National Boulevard as of 9:10 a.m. but was completely reopened just over an hour after the protest started.mMotorists were advised to get off at Olympic Boulevard and divert to the 10 Freeway while the protesters blocked traffic. Sky5 footage shows CHP officers detaining several demonstrators, who are part of a coalition of American Jews and allies, according to a press release from IfNotNowLA, which dubs itself “a movement of anti-Apartheid American Jews working to end our community’s support for the Israeli occupation of Palestine.”Video posted to IfNotNowLA’s Instagram page at 9:35 a.m. shows CHP officers detaining multiple people as other demonstrators chanted and marched along the shoulder.More video posted to the Citizen app showed a massive traffic backup starting to build.According to IfNotNowLA, the protesters shut down the freeway in protest of the United States’s support for Israel’s assault on Gaza.The demonstration comes on Tisha B’Av, an annual fast day in the Jewish religion considered“the saddest day on the Jewish calendar.”A total of eight arrests were made, CHP confirmed to KTLA, adding that there were around 40 protesters, most of whom left on foot when police arrived. IfNotNowLA is part of the larger IfNotNow movement. More information about the group can be found here.
Iraq Says Announcement on Date for End to US-Led Coalition Mission Postponed -(Reuters) -Iraq's foreign ministry said on Thursday that an announcement on an end date for the U.S.-led coalition's mission has been postponed due to the "latest developments." It did not identify the developments. The U.S.-Iraq Higher Military Commission, comprising officials from both countries, discussed details of withdrawing advisers from military sites, the foreign ministry said in a statement said. It said the only remaining issues before reaching a deal on ending the coalition's presence in Iraq were agreement on an announcement date, logistical aspects and other details. A foreign ministry official told Reuters that the announcement on the end of the coalition's presence is expected in early September. A rare ally of both the U.S. and Iran, Iraq hosts 2,500 U.S. troops and has Iran-backed militias linked to its security forces. It has witnessed escalating tit-for-tat attacks since the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza erupted in October. On Aug. 5, at least five U.S. personnel were injured in an attack against a military base in Iraq. Iraq wants troops from the U.S.-led military coalition to begin withdrawing in September and to formally end the coalition's work by September 2025, Iraqi sources have said, with some U.S. forces likely to remain in a newly negotiated advisory capacity.
US Says It's Not Discussing Withdrawing From Iraq - The State Department on Wednesday said that at “no point” in recent talks with the Iraqi government has the US discussed the idea of withdrawing troops from Iraq.The comments came in response to questions about reports saying that the US was planning to withdraw. Tasnim, an Iranian news agency, reported this week that the US and Iraq would announce plans for a withdrawal next month.State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said that the talks with the Iraqi government had been focused on transitioning US involvement in Iraq from an international coalition to a “bilateral security partnership,” which would mean an open-ended US military presence.“At no point did we discuss the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, but we continued to discuss the transition to a – what we would say a bilateral security partnership,” Patel said.There are currently about 2,500 US troops in Iraq as part of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition, known as Operation Inherent Resolve. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani began calling for the withdrawal of the coalition at the end of 2023 after the US began launching airstrikes against the PMF, a group of mainly Shia militias that are part of Iraq’s security forces. Al-Sudani has said that Iraqi troops could handle ISIS remnants without the foreign coalition.In response to al-Sudani’s calls, the US began talks with Iraq on the future of the US-led coalition, but in all statements released on the negotiations, the two sides left open the possibility of a continued US presence under a different name. This arrangement would not please PMF fighters, and the lack of progress toward a US withdrawal could be the reason why rocket and drone attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria have restarted.A total of 12 US troops and one American contractor were injured last week by attacks in Iraq and Syria. Patel’s comments could end up provoking even more attacks since the Shia militias have been clear they want to see the US leave.Iraq’s government has been under pressure to expel the US since January 2020, when a US drone strike in Baghdad killed Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani and PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. After the strike, the Iraqi parliament voted to expel US forces, but the US refused to leave.The US has been able to stay in Iraq due to the significant economic leverage it has over the country. Since the 2003 invasion, Iraq’s foreign reserves have been held by the US Federal Reserve, giving Washington control over Baghdad’s dollar supply and the ability to devalue the Iraqi dinar. The US also keeps tight control over Iraq’s ability to pay its neighbor Iran for much-needed electricity.
Pentagon: Eight US Troops Wounded in Syria Attack Last Week - The Pentagon said Tuesday that a total of eight US troops were wounded in a drone attack that hit a US base in northeast Syria on Friday. Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said all eight troops were treated for smoke inhalation and traumatic brain injuries. “Three of those service members have returned to duty while the others remain under observation,” Ryder told reporters. “According to CENTCOM (US Central Command), none of the injuries are life-threatening.”US officials first said on Saturday that US service members were wounded in the one-way drone attack on the Rumalyn Landing Zone but didn’t specify how many. The attack came the same week that four US troops and one American contractor were wounded when rockets hit the Ain al-Asad air base in western Iraq.Iraqi Shia militias launched over 100 rocket and drone attacks on US bases from October 2023 to February of this year in response to US support for Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza. After three US troops were killed in January at Tower 22, a secretive US base in Jordan, Iran and the Iraqi government pressured the militias to stop the attacks. In recent weeks, attacks restarted, potentially because the US has not made any clear moves toward withdrawing from Iraq despite Washington and Baghdad starting talks on the future of the US military presence. Tensions are also soaring in the region as Iran is expected to launch a reprisal attack on Israel for the assassination of Hamas’s political chief in Tehran. Harrison Mann, a former US Army major who resigned from the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency in May due to US support for the slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza, said in an op-ed published by The Guardian on Tuesday that US troops in Iraq and Syria were not being protected. Mann said in the op-ed that he and his colleagues at the Pentagon were not “saddened but not surprised” when three US troops were killed at Tower 22. “As the close calls and injuries mounted, we came to a stunning realization: there was no real plan to protect US troops beyond leaving them in their small, isolated bases while local militants, emboldened and agitated by US support for Israel’s brutal war in Gaza, used them for target practice,” he wrote. \
Oregon National Guard Sends Off 230 Soldiers to Iraq and Syria - The Oregon National Guard is sending off 230 guardsmen to Iraq and Syriaamid soaring tensions in the Middle East as the US is pledging to defend Israel from an expected Iranian reprisal attack.The US has about 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 troops occupying eastern Syria. The Oregon guardsmen are likely being sent out on a regular rotational deployment, but the move comes as the US beefs up its presence in the region. According to KGW8, a local NBC affiliate in Oregon, the unit is being deployed for a year and will serve as “primary artillery defenders” for the US and its partners in Iraq and Syria. The soldiers held a mobilization ceremony on Friday and were sent to Fort Sill, Oklahoma, to undergo training before the deployment. The US frequently deploys the National Guard to active conflicts in Iraq, Syria, and Somalia. A national movement in the US is seeking to remove the federal government’s ability to deploy the National Guard to war zones through legislation at the state level, known as the Defend the Guard Act.The Defend the Guard Act would prohibit the federal government from deploying a state’s National Guard to a conflict zone where Congress hasn’t officially declared war, which hasn’t happened since World War II. The bill has passed through several state legislatures but has yet to become law.The Oregon National Guard soldiers will be deployed under the US-led anti-ISIS coalition, known as Operation Inherent Resolve. ISIS doesn’t hold significant territory in Iraq and Syria, but there’s been a resurgence of ISIS attacks amid tensions and other escalations in the region.ISIS has claimed responsibility for 153 attacks in Iraq and Syria this year. In July, US Central Command said that it had participated in 196 missions against ISIS with partner forces in Iraq and Syria, which killed 44 suspected ISIS operatives.But the US has also been engaged in battle with Iraqi Shia militias that fall under the Popular Mobilization Forces, who are sworn enemies of ISIS and are part of Iraq’s security forces. From October 2023 to February of this year, the militias launched hundreds of attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria in response to US support for Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza. The attacks culminated in the killing of three US Army Reserve troops at Tower 22, a secretive US base in Jordan. Forty-one members of the Arizona National Guard were also wounded. Iran and the Iraqi government pressured the militias to stop the attacks, and there was a lull until recently. In the past week, several US troops have been injured in rocket and drone attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria.
Why should US troops pay the price for Biden’s failure to rein in Netanyahu? - Harrison Mann - On January 2024, the US Defense Intelligence Agency’s Middle East crisis cell awoke to the heartbreaking news that three US soldiers had been killed in a drone strike on the Tower 22 base in northern Jordan. In our headquarters in Washington DC, we were saddened – but not surprised. Back then, I was an officer in the US army, and since October, my comrades and I had become accustomed to seeing Iraqi and Syrian militias launch attacks on our bases almost every day. As the close calls and injuries mounted, we came to a stunning realisation: there was no real plan to protect US troops beyond leaving them in their small, isolated bases while local militants, emboldened and agitated by US support for Israel’s brutal war in Gaza, used them for target practice.These soldiers were casualties of the widening regional escalation that I warned of when I resigned in May; although my chief concern then was the needless slaughter of Palestinian civilians. Months later, it’s maddening to see not only the deteriorating humanitarian crisis, but, as of Monday, our forces being used for target practice once again.It is clear there is no real plan underpinning the Biden administration’s decision to accelerate deployment of aircraft and warships to the Middle East. It’s simply more of the reflexive and unconditional support for the government of Benjamin Netanyahu that has only encouraged reckless escalation towards a wider war. Netanyahu would not have killed senior Hezbollah and Hamas officials in Beirut and Tehran last week – leading to the wounding of US troops in a reprisal attack – if he wasn’t confident that the US navy would be dispatched immediately after to protect him from the consequences of his actions. Ten months into this war, it’s time to think harder about why we’re putting troops in harm’s way. That more US service personnel have not been killed in this conflict is nothing short of a miracle. Like the armed drone that struck a barracks full of sleeping personnel in October, but turned out to be a harmless dud, the current turn of events is more the result of dumb luck than any measure of strategic discipline or good planning. It is a wonder that the conflict hasn’t already escalated into a ruinous full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah that drags in the US and Iran. But our dumb luck is running out. As Iran and Hezbollah prepare to retaliate, the Biden administration cannot articulate an escalation management strategy beyond leaking stern words and hoping that nobody gets another lucky shot in. The endless rolls of the dice all but guarantee that sooner or later a Hezbollah rocket will fall short on an Israeli school, or any other number of casus belli will occur that allow Netanyahu to launch a new war in his desperate attempt to cling to power.An invasion of Lebanon, even on the shaky ground that it’s needed in order to defeat Hezbollah, would not go well. Hezbollah soundly defeated Israel’s invasion in 2006 and is significantly stronger today. The current American protection deal – endless munitions plus US jets and destroyers to shoot down projectiles – will not be enough to protect Israel and deliver Netanyahu a victory.If Netanyahu were to eventually demand strikes on Hezbollah targets, it’s hard to imagine Biden would, for the first time in his life, say no to him – not while images of burning Israeli tanks and cities are flooding the airwaves. But even with intensified US assistance, there is no realistic pathway to “defeating” Hezbollah without an Iraq-style occupation.Behind the scenes of these reckless decisions will be suffering US troops, who will continue to die and be injured in these wars. What will they have died for? It would be reassuring to say they fought and died defending Israel – but that is inaccurate, when their very presence empowers the careless aggression that makes Israelis demonstrably less safe by the day. The most courageous Americans will be sacrificed to the whims of a foreign politician because their own leaders lacked the courage to stand up to him.
Biden Considering Sending Long-Range Cruise Missiles to Ukraine - The Biden administration is “open” to sending Ukraine long-range air-to-surface cruise missiles amid Ukraine’s offensive in Russia’s Kursk Oblast,POLITICO reported on Thursday.The Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) has a range of over 230 miles and would become the longest-range weapon the US sends Ukraine if it goes ahead with the delivery.Sources told POLITICO that no final decision had been made as the Pentagon is trying to figure out if Ukraine’s Soviet-era fighter jets could carry the powerful missile, which weighs 2,400 pounds and has a 1,000-pound warhead.Ukraine has received a small number of US-made F-16 fighter jets, which can carry the JASSMs. But it’s unclear when the F-16s will be put to use since only a few Ukrainian pilots have been trained.The US is supporting Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk by allowing it to use US-provided weapons, including armored vehicles. The US still says it’s opposed to supporting long-range strikes in Russia, but it’s unclear what the limit is. Ukraine is pushing for the US to lift all restrictions on its use of US weapons.The US insists it was not aware of Ukraine’s plans to launch a ground invasion of Kursk, but President Biden said on Tuesday that US officialshave been in “constant contact” with the Ukrainians about the assault.
Sen. Graham Visits Kyiv, Calls Ukraine's Invasion of Russia's Kursk 'Beautiful' -Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) visited the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on Monday and praised the Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, calling the offensive “beautiful.”Speaking to reporters alongside Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Graham said, “What do I think about Kursk? Bold, brilliant, beautiful. Keep it up.”The White House has insisted it was unaware of Ukraine’s plans to launch the ground incursion into Kursk but is still strongly backing the invasion as the US is allowing Ukraine to use US-provided weapons.Graham added that his message to the Biden administration is to give Ukraine the “weapons they need to win the war they can’t afford to lose.” While supporting the invasion of Kursk, the administration still says it doesn’t support “long-range” Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, although it hasn’t defined how deep into Russia is too far.During their visit to Kyiv, Graham and Blumenthal met with Zelensky, who is asking for the US to support “long-range” attacks.“We discussed what exactly is needed to bring this war to its end, and to bring it to a just end,” Zelensky said of his meeting with the US senators. “I explained in detail our need for long-range capabilities.”The US-backed incursion into Kursk marks a significant escalation of the proxy war and risks a major Russian response. Russian President Vladimir Putin has blamed the attack on Ukraine’s Western backers, saying, “The West is waging war against us using Ukrainians.”
Biden Says US in 'Constant Contact' With Ukraine About Kursk Offensive - President Biden said on Tuesday that he was in “constant contact” with the Ukrainians about the invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast, signaling deep US involvement in the invasion of Russia.“I’ve spoken with my staff on a regular basis probably every four or five hours for the last six or eight days,” Biden told reporters when asked about the fighting in Kursk.“And it’s — it’s creating a real dilemma for Putin. And we’ve been in direct contact — constant contact with — with the Ukrainians,” he added Biden made the comments after arriving in Kenner, Louisiana, on Air Force One. Before boarding the plane in Washington DC, he was also asked about Kursk but chose not to comment. “I’d rather not comment on that publicly,” he said.The White House has insisted it was unaware of Ukraine’s plans to launch a ground incursion into Kursk until it started, but the US is strongly backing the invasion by allowing Ukrainian forces to use US weapons.A US-backed invasion of Russia marks a significant escalation of the proxy war and risks a major response from Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin has blamed the assault on Ukraine’s Western backers, saying on Monday, “The West is waging war against us using Ukrainians.”Heavy fighting continued in Kursk on Wednesday, with Ukraine claiming its forces made gains. The Russian Defense Ministry said it inflicted more heavy casualties on the invading force, claiming Ukraine has lost 2,300 soldiers since the assault was launched last Tuesday, but the number is not confirmed since Kyiv doesn’t release information about casualties.
Hunter Biden Asked State Department To Aid Burisma Deal While Father Was VP -While Joe Biden was vice president, his son Hunter attempted to obtain State Department assistance in securing a deal for Ukrainian gas company Burisma, of which Hunter was a highly-compensated board member despite having no experience in its industry, the New York Times reported on Tuesday. The revelation of the 2016 episode underscores allegations that Hunter sought to enrich himself by trading on his father's influence. The Times report draws on newly-released government records pertaining to Hunter's pushing of a Burisma deal in Italy. The Biden White House had resisted releasing the files for years, only to relent soon after Biden was pressured into abandoning his reelection bid. Less than a week after Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race, the State Department finally released records showing Hunter Biden sought U.S. government help to land a Burisma deal when his father was VP. Coincidence? https://t.co/CZjuDfgYqM — Oversight Committee (@GOPoversight) August 14, 2024 The Times says it was unable to read Hunter's email to the US ambassador, as it appears to have been "redacted in its entirety" somewhere within the trove of documents turned over by the government. However, in communications sparked by Hunter's 2016 inquiries, federal government officials appear to have been anxious about Hunter's request. For example, a Commerce Department official assigned to America's embassy in Rome wrote: "I want to be careful about promising too much. This is a Ukrainian company and, purely to protect ourselves, USG should not be actively advocating with the government of Italy without the company going through the [Commerce Department] Advocacy Center.” The White House told the Times that then-Vice President Biden had no knowledge of his son's inquiries. Hunter's attorney, Abbe Lowell, acknowledged that Hunter asked US ambassador to Italy John R. Phillips and "various people" for help facilitating a dialogue between the president of Tuscany and Burisma leaders. “No meeting occurred, no project materialized, no request for anything in the U.S. was ever sought and only an introduction in Italy was requested," Abbe told the Times. Burisma was pursuing a geothermal energy project.
Watch: Tulsi Gabbard Suing Biden/Harris Admin For Placing Her On Terrorist Watch List --Former Democratic Representative Tulsi Gabbard is taking legal action against the Biden/Harris Administration after she discovered that she has essentially been placed on a terrorist watch list.Gabbard, a military veteran, had it brought to her attention by Federal Air Marshal whistleblowers that she has been marked under the Quiet Skies program, a TSA scheme that seeks to identify travellers who may pose a risk to aviation security.Those on this watchlist are not banned from flying, but are subject to enhanced searches and surveillance at airports, including having armed Air Marshals accompanying them on flights.The whistleblowers have informed Gabbard that she is being monitored by two Explosive Detection Canine Teams, one Transportation Security Specialist specializing in explosives, one plainclothes TSA Supervisor, and three Federal Air Marshals every time she flies.Kamala Harris is not knowledgeable or strong enough to stand up to potential adversaries, or just as importantly the unelected warmongers — i.e. the Military Industrial Complex which profits from war, and the National Security State which uses these wars as a pretext to further…pic.twitter.com/1uUS6CtGii— Tulsi Gabbard (@TulsiGabbard) July 23, 2024The whistleblowers have stated that Gabbard became marked on the program on July 23, just one day after she openly criticised Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, and the ‘Deep State’ during a Fox News interview with Laura Ingraham (below).There is no logical reason why Gabbard should be on the watchlist, unless criticising the regime is a designating factor.Gabbard posted a video explaining why she is taking legal action, noting “My own government, my president, my commander-in-chief is targeting me as a potential domestic terrorist, the closest word that comes to mind is a complete sense of betrayal.”“After serving over 21 years and continuing to serve in our nation’s military, my own government has labeled and is targeting me directly now as a domestic terrorist,” she added.Gabbard further asserted “They’re using people like the air marshals as weapons and pawns to target their political opponents.”“Of course, there’s no explanation given, which is why we are taking legal recourse,” she emphasised. “Obviously, I’ve been very outspoken about the dangers of the Biden-Harris administration to our democracy and to our freedom and to our national security. This is what happens as a result,” she concluded.
Walz, Vance picks spark debate on foreign policy - Shortly after Vice President Kamala Harris announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) as her vice presidential nominee, the Democratic Party’s left flank left no doubt about what they think it means for U.S. foreign policy. “Today was another sign that our collective power can create a historic shift in the Democratic Party: away from militarism and impunity for Israel’s war crimes,” said several pro-Palestinian groups in a joint statement. The Democratic Socialists of America echoed the sentiment: “Harris choosing Walz as a running mate has shown the world that DSA and our allies on the left are a force that cannot be ignored.” Despite the left’s enthusiasm for the Walz pick, anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian activists are still planning a 20,000-person protest at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, raising fears of a repeat of the chaos that enveloped the 1968 convention. It’s setting up a historic clash within the party. In the short term, Harris may be able to minimize the growing rift by artfully playing both sides, which she appeared to do last week. After she reportedly suggested an openness to discuss an arms embargo on Israel in a meeting with activists, her national security advisor, Phil Gordon, immediately reiterated her opposition to an embargo and commitment to “always ensure Israel is able to defend itself.” Eventually, a reckoning is coming, and Vice President Harris will face the prospect of either leading a historic break of the Democratic Party’s support for Israel or enraging the activists who had already turned on President Biden for his refusal to do the same. Something similar is happening on the Republican side, where former President Trump’s pick of Ohio Sen. JD Vance has raised expectations on the isolationist right that the U.S. would abandon Ukraine in a second Trump term. Here’s what needs to happen now. Both former President Trump and Vice President Harris need to explain — in detail — how they plan to handle Israel and Ukraine if they are elected. Nothing we’ve heard to date has remotely met this standard. Trump has, of course, promised he will end the Ukraine war within 24 hours, offering no details on how he would actually do it. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign continues to coast on “vibes,” assisted by a pliant media that doesn’t seem interested in forcing her or her campaign to answer questions. Both candidates have identified the unique danger of this moment for America. Vice President Harris has said the entire international order built by the U.S. is at risk, and former President Trump says we’re on the cusp of World War III. Would it be too much to ask both candidates how they plan to get us through this? If they are indeed planning a radical break with Ukraine or Israel, voters deserve to know now, especially given that most Americans still support sending aid to Ukraine and believe that Israel’s war against Hamas is justified. If either candidate doesn’t agree, they should tell us why.
Investigator resigns from Afghanistan withdrawal probe =A senior investigator has resigned from the Republican House Foreign Affairs Committee probe into the Biden administration’s deadly and chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, accusing the panel of holding back its full power in examining the failures of the U.S. pullout. Jerry Dunleavy, a former journalist and author of a book detailing first-person accounts of the withdrawal, posted his resignation letter Monday to social platform X. He described himself as a whistleblower, criticizing the committee as suffering from “investigative paralysis.” “I did not come lightly to this decision to resign and to blow the whistle publicly,” Dunleavy wrote in a post accompanying screenshots of his four-page resignation letter. Efforts to pursue investigative leads were “repeatedly stymied by our chief investigator and by senior staff, and unfortunately, sometimes by indecision from you, Mr. Chairman,” Dunleavy wrote in the letter, referring to House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas). In a phone call with The Hill, Dunleavy said he was motivated to speak out publicly ahead of the November election to raise an urgency to go after interviews with key administration officials and dig deeper into the responsibility of the military generals and commanders while Republicans are still in the majority in the House. “There is definitely a significant bias from the chairman, downward, toward not really looking to hold the military commanders and generals accountable for what happened,” Dunleavy said. He described committee members treating retired Gens. Mark Milley and Kenneth McKenzie with “kid gloves” during a March hearing. Milley served as chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff during both the Trump and Biden administrations, and McKenzie is the former commander of United States Central Command. Dunleavy further said that the committee has taken “zero steps” to look at Vice President Harris’s role in the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, saying “I have received pushback from my superiors related to taking action on this.” “I have argued repeatedly that Vice President Kamala Harris should be held accountable for her role in the debacle in Afghanistan, especially now that she is the Democratic nominee for President of the United States and could soon be making national security decisions and directing foreign policy for our entire nation,” Dunleavy wrote in his letter. Emily Cassil, a spokesperson for committee Republicans, responded to Dunleavy’s resignation by saying McCaul “pours his heart and soul into getting answers for our Gold Star families and Afghanistan veterans” and pointed to the committee’s expected publication in September of its final report looking at the decision making surrounding the U.S. pullout. Separately, a Republican committee aide pushed back on Dunleavey’s assertion that the vice president was off limits, adding that her role in the withdrawal would be addressed in the September report. McCaul has made investigating President Biden’s 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan a centerpiece of his agenda heading the committee, promising to discover how the two-decade war culminated in a deadly and chaotic end in which 13 U.S. service members were killed in a terrorist attack, along with roughly 170 Afghan civilians. But Democrats have criticized McCaul as carrying out a partisan investigation that fails to look at former President Trump’s role in setting up the conditions for the U.S. exit from Afghanistan, as well as decisions by previous administrations from Presidents Bush and Obama.
The US and Japanese Forces Are Integrated and Prepare a War - The Japanese government denies some fears that its forces will be subordinate to U.S. forces. However, the U.S. and Japanese forces are being integrated, and there is a secret agreement that a single commander is indispensable in an emergency and that the U.S. should appoint the person.Japan will create the Joint Operations Command (JJOC) of Self-Defense Forces by the end of March 2025. Currently, the Joint Staff Office is responsible for military advising and assisting the Prime Minister and Defense Minister and for commanding the military operations of the Ground, Maritime, and Air Self-Defense Forces. However, the new joint headquarters will accept commanding the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, and this change will relieve the Joint Staff Office’s burden and enable it to concentrate on advising. In April 2024, the U.S. and Japan issued a Joint Leaders’ Statement: Global Partners for the Future. In the statement, the U.S. welcomed “plans to stand up the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) Joint Operations Command to enhance command and control of the JSDF.” They announced their intention to bilaterally upgrade their respective command and control frameworks to enable seamless integration of operations and capabilities and allow for greater interoperability and planning between U.S. and Japanese forces in peacetime and during contingencies.”In June 2024, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said appointing a four-star general to head of U.S. Forces Japan was still considered. Currently, the U.S. Forces Japan’s head is a three-star general, and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, based in Hawaii, has command authority over U.S. Forces in Japan, which head is a four-star general. However, there is a distance and a time difference between Hawaii and Japan. In order to cooperate smoothly with Japan in operational planning and training to respond to contingencies, the authority of the U.S. Forces Japan headquarters should be strengthened.On July 28, 2024, the U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee (U.S.-Japan “2+2”), which both countries’ Foreign Affairs Ministers and Defense Ministers attended, released a joint statement. In the statement, the U.S. announces that it “intends to reconstitute U.S. Forces Japan (USFJ) as a joint force headquarters (JFHQ) reporting to the Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM). This reconstituted USFJ is intended to serve as an important JJOC counterpart” to facilitate deeper interoperability and cooperation on joint bilateral operations in peacetime and during contingencies.The Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) Joint Operations Command will be included in the Alliance Coordination Mechanism (ACM).The Alliance Coordination Mechanism (ACM) was established in November 2015 by the U.S. and Japanese governments for bilateral Defense Cooperation. The ACM coordinates policy and operational aspects of activities conducted by the U.S. Forces and JSDF in all phases, from peacetime to contingencies. This Mechanism also contributes to timely information sharing and the development and maintenance of common situational awareness.On the same day, Washington and Tokyo also established the Bilateral Planning Mechanism (BPM), which ensures Ministerial-level directions and supervision and the involvement of relevant government ministries and agencies. It also coordinates various forms of U.S.-Japan cooperation conducive to the development of bilateral plans. The two governments conduct bilateral planning through the BPM. Both Mechanisms are based on the Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation, published in 1978 and revised twice in 1997 and 2015. The Guidelines are documents agreed upon on what defense cooperation should be concretely based on the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, and the alliance was advanced beyond offering bases. Though the guidelines read that it does not obligate either government to take legislative, budgetary, or administrative measures, Tokyo has enacted laws and spent money to fulfill them.The Japanese government denies some fears that its forces will be subordinate to U.S. forces. However, the U.S. and Japanese forces are being integrated, and there is a secret agreement that a single commander is indispensable in an emergency and that the U.S. should appoint the person. Japan will create the Joint Operations Command (JJOC) of Self-Defense Forces by the end of March 2025. Currently, the Joint Staff Office is responsible for military advising and assisting the Prime Minister and Defense Minister and for commanding the military operations of the Ground, Maritime, and Air Self-Defense Forces. However, the new joint headquarters will accept commanding the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, and this change will relieve the Joint Staff Office’s burden and enable it to concentrate on advising. In April 2024, the U.S. and Japan issued a Joint Leaders’ Statement: Global Partners for the Future. In the statement, the U.S. welcomed “plans to stand up the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) Joint Operations Command to enhance command and control of the JSDF.” They announced their intention to bilaterally upgrade their respective command and control frameworks to enable seamless integration of operations and capabilities and allow for greater interoperability and planning between U.S. and Japanese forces in peacetime and during contingencies.” In June 2024, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said appointing a four-star general to head of U.S. Forces Japan was still considered. Currently, the U.S. Forces Japan’s head is a three-star general, and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, based in Hawaii, has command authority over U.S. Forces in Japan, which head is a four-star general. However, there is a distance and a time difference between Hawaii and Japan. In order to cooperate smoothly with Japan in operational planning and training to respond to contingencies, the authority of the U.S. Forces Japan headquarters should be strengthened. On July 28, 2024, the U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee (U.S.-Japan “2+2”), which both countries’ Foreign Affairs Ministers and Defense Ministers attended, released a joint statement. In the statement, the U.S. announces that it “intends to reconstitute U.S. Forces Japan (USFJ) as a joint force headquarters (JFHQ) reporting to the Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM). This reconstituted USFJ is intended to serve as an important JJOC counterpart” to facilitate deeper interoperability and cooperation on joint bilateral operations in peacetime and during contingencies. The Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) Joint Operations Command will be included in the Alliance Coordination Mechanism (ACM). The Alliance Coordination Mechanism (ACM) was established in November 2015 by the U.S. and Japanese governments for bilateral Defense Cooperation. The ACM coordinates policy and operational aspects of activities conducted by the U.S. Forces and JSDF in all phases, from peacetime to contingencies. This Mechanism also contributes to timely information sharing and the development and maintenance of common situational awareness. On the same day, Washington and Tokyo also established the Bilateral Planning Mechanism (BPM), which ensures Ministerial-level directions and supervision and the involvement of relevant government ministries and agencies. It also coordinates various forms of U.S.-Japan cooperation conducive to the development of bilateral plans. The two governments conduct bilateral planning through the BPM. Click for larger image Both Mechanisms are based on the Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation, published in 1978 and revised twice in 1997 and 2015. The Guidelines are documents agreed upon on what defense cooperation should be concretely based on the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, and the alliance was advanced beyond offering bases. Though the guidelines read that it does not obligate either government to take legislative, budgetary, or administrative measures, Tokyo has enacted laws and spent money to fulfill them.
The US Is Preparing for an Unwinnable War Against China - In war, there are no winners – and in a war between the US and China, the entire world would lose.That’s not just considering the mass loss of life that would occur, but also the reverberating effects of war that would sink millions into economic devastation, destroy the environment, and lead to widespread displacement and human rights atrocities.The potential use of nuclear weapons is often disregarded as a side note, but it shouldn’t be. According to experts, conflict between the US and China could easily escalate into nuclear war – and a nuclear winter isn’t much farther away.Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Q. Brown disagrees. He says he is “fully confident” that the US would defeat China if war were to break out over Taiwan, even though the Commission on National Defense Strategy predicts extreme losses on the US side. Just last week he announced, “It’s going to take all the nation if we go to conflict with the PRC, and I’m confident, if we’re challenged, we will be there.”“I play to win,” he continued, after acknowledging that “these will be major conflicts akin to what we saw in WW2, and so we’ve got to come to grips with that.” Born in 1962, Gen. Brown knows nothing of the horrors of WW2. For him, it’s words in a textbook – a game to “play.” For others, it will be lost limbs and terror.The US has been in near constant conflict since its inception, and our more recent wars paint an obvious vision of ineptitude. The only things Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan accomplished were widespread death and destruction. Violence does not end just because war does, but hangs over communities like a specter, negatively affecting the health and economic well-being of nations, as well as contributing to environmental harm.While our government has been edging us towards war with China for some time, it’s not often we hear the words spoken so starkly. Gen. Brown’s point is clear: the US is preparing for war, and they’re not holding back.This week, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin brought $500 million to the Philippines to boost their military capabilities. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken was negotiating a deal to move US operational control of Japanese forces from Hawaii to Japan.Make no mistake: this is not another small play of some far-away war game. This is a big deal.Having operational control over Japan’s military means our government doesn’t need to send as many American soldiers across the ocean to engage in battle. They’ll have full command and control of thousands of Japanese troops to do with as they please. The US already has operational control over South Korea’s military, meaning that if war broke out, all ROK troops would be placed under US command as well.This isn’t just about war strategy – it’s about public perception. The American people are far more likely to support a war when they aren’t losing loved ones left and right. That might be the only lesson our government learned from Vietnam, and Iraq only solidified it. Drones and special forces won’t cut it in a war with China, which is why the US is working overtime to solidify military partnerships across the Asia Pacific.Modern US war-waging often occurs through the use of proxy states and funding the troops of another country as long as they act in US interests. They’ll call it military strategy, but at the very root of it, you’ll find a dark feeling of indifference towards the citizens of other nations. Our government could not care less what happens to innocent people in Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines – as long as US global hegemony is preserved, they will let them die.Meanwhile, opposition has been growing within. In South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines, protests are on the rise, calling for an end to US imperialism. The people don’t want to be cannon fodder between the US and China, which is exactly what will happen if the situation escalates into war. At a Foreign Relations Committee hearing last week on strategic warfare with China (the 7th so far), Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell stressed the importance of AUKUS and other trilateral partnerships when dealing with China. “This will be never ending,” Campbell told the committee, emphasizing that the Asia Pacific “requires the most capable naval and advanced long-range air capabilities that the United States has ever needed before.” Well, alliances are being made and billions of tax dollars continue to fund hyper-militarization of the region. Gen. Brown even commented that he is accelerating the effort of stockpiling weapons, ammunition, and other supplies in the Asia Pacific in preparation for war.Just a few months ago, a trilateral summit between Japan, the Philippines, and the United States deepened their military alliance in the region. Biden reaffirmed the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, which states the US will respond to any attack on the island nation. AUKUS, which Secretary Campbell repeatedly stressed the importance of, is a defense alliance between the US, the UK, and Australia in the Asia Pacific region. Criticized by China for its “cold war mentality,” the strategic partnership is not unlike those that led us into global wars during the 20th century. Everywhere we look, our government speaks of war with China as if it is an inevitable and warranted endeavor. It’s not. War never is. And yet, the media will continue to follow our politicians like lap dogs and feed the narrative that war with China is unavoidable – even though China itself has repeatedly denounced any potential escalation into conflict. At this point, it rests on the shoulders of the people to say otherwise.It’s time for the American public to take a stand against the normalization of conflict and the preparation for war with China. It’s time to tell our government that war with China is not only unacceptable, but global suicide. We now stare this unwinnable conflict in the face and there’s no time to look away. The time for action is now.
'Realists' Think We Need To Prepare for a Draft So We Can Win a War With China - Doubling down on their recent war-game exercises and report on the (un)readiness of the U.S. to activate a military draft, Taren Sylvester and Katherine Kuzminski of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) have a new article in War on the Rocks, “Preparing for the Possibility of a Draft Without Panic,” laying out why they think the U.S. needs to prepare for a draft in order to be able to win an all-out war with China over Taiwan. CNAS and War on the Rocks like to describe themselves as “realists”. But their arguments for stepped-up planning and preparation for a draft are strikingly unrealistic, in at least four respects. First, Sylvester and Kuzminski – like the Selective Service System and the Department of Justice – entirely ignore whether, much less how or at what cost, a draft could be enforced. The practical difficulty of enforcing a draft in the face of widespread evasion and resistance was the Achilles heel of the last U.S. draft, and has to be central to any realistic plan for a future draft. You can’t just wave a magic cheerleader’s baton and get every would-be draftee, male or female, to march down to the induction office to ship out for Taiwan, Ukraine, Palestine, or points unknown. Like it or not, many young people won’t go voluntarily. If they would, a draft wouldn’t be needed. As I said in my testimony to the National Commisison on Military, National, and Public Service (NCMNPS) in 2019, “Any proposal [for military or civilian national service] that includes a compulsory element is a naïve fantasy unless it includes a credible enforcement plan and budget… How much are you prepared to spend, and how much of a police state are you prepared to set up, to round up the millions of current draft registration law violators or enforce a draft?”Struggling to enforce draft registration and call-up orders, Ukraine has resorted to roving press gangs snatching suspected draft dodgers off the streets. Are similar enforcement tactics a realistic option in the U.S.? If not, what enforcement mechanisms are the realists contemplating? Neither theCNAS nor the NCMNPS reports say a word about enforcement of draft registration or induction orders.Second, CNAS wrongly conflates an attack on Taiwan with an existentential threat to the U.S.This discredited domino theory was made explicit in the scenario they used for their mobilization exercise: “The teams were first presented with a potential crisis scenario in which the PRC conducted a large-scale invasion of Taiwan… The teams were then provided with a breaking update: the PRC had effectively invaded Taiwan, and Congress and the president had enacted the draft… After the exercise, participants were provided with a scenario update: having observed that the United States was mobilizing in defense of Taiwan, the PRC attacks a location in southern California between San Diego and Los Angeles.”China might indeed, as this scenario suggests, see U.S. military mobilization as threatening. But that’s a reason to retard U.S. mobilization, not to accelerate it. The scenario most feared by many people in Taiwan is that U.S. sabre-rattling might derail the chnaces for diplomacy and provoke a Chinese attack. Even if China is provoked, there’s no realistic reason to think that China – or, lest another spectre be raised, Russia – has any interest, ability, or likelihood to invade the U.S. A desire to be prepared to defend the U.S. is not a reason to prepare to send U.S. troops overseas, or to maintain readiness to conscript them if they don’t volunteer to do so.CNAS may support increased U.S. military engagement in Taiwan to advance what they see as U.S. interests. But it’s disingenuous to pretend that this has anything to do with defending the U.S. homeland.Third, despite the genuinely existential risk of triggering nuclear war, CNAS and other advocates for heightened readiness for massive U.S. military mobilization, including preparedness for a draft, entirely ignore the nuclear implications of mobilization.Their stated assumption is that, “The nation’s ability to credibly signal its potential to endure and prevail in a protracted conflict can serve as a deterrent to future conflict provocation by would-be adversaries.”Foreign leaders aren’t fools. They can see that any attempt to activate a draft in the U.S., even if would-be draftees are registered “automatically”, would be widely resisted, unworkable, and unenforceable, even if proponents of a draft are reluctant to recognize that reality.Given that the U.S. has, and is unlikely to have, any credible capacity either to mobilize a conscript army to fight a foreign war or to prevail in a war with China over Taiwan, it’s unrealistic to expect gearing up for a draft to have any deterrent effect.Fourth, the CNAS theorists fantasize that if only we had a draft available as a “fallback”, the US could “defeat a Chinese attack on Taiwan.”U.S. special forces are already deployed on the Kinmen Islands, just a few miles off the coast of mainland China in the Taiwan Strait.But given the realities of supply lines and numbers, with or without a draft, a U.S.-China war over Taiwan – 5,000 miles from the U.S. mainland, with a population of more than 20 million people – would be another unwinnable quagmire for the U.S., like those in Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan, not a winnable war or another easy invasion and conquest of a small nearby island like Grenada. It’s not realistic to think that waves of U.S. conscripts would be able to push Chinese invaders off Taiwan.Any attempt to make an all-out war with China in Asia or the Western Pacific thinkable, to imagine that such a war would be winnable or that China could be defeated without nuclear omnicide, or to use a draft to prop up that thinking, isn’t military or strategic realism. It’s delusional – and dangerous.If a total war with China or another great power would require more troops than the U.S. has available, and a draft isn’t a realistic option, the realistic course is to plan and prepare for only those wars that people would volunteer to fight. If that requires changes in unrealistically ambitious U.S. war plans, it’s time to start making those changes in strategic thinking and military policy, not making futile efforts to resuscitate the paper tiger of the failed Selective Service System and its sham preparedness for conscription.
Pentagon likely undercounted military sexual assaults, research shows - The Pentagon has likely undercounted the number of sexual assaults in the military, with cases much higher than official estimates, according to new research from Brown University’s Costs of War Project. Researchers looked at Defense Department data from 2001, when the U.S. invaded Afghanistan, to 2023, and found levels were two to four times higher than Pentagon estimates.In 2021, the Pentagon estimated there were 35,900 cases, but the Costs of War project said the number was actually 75,569. It found a similar discrepancy in 2023, with the Pentagon counting 29,000 cases, the first decrease in nearly a decade, but project researchers counting more than 73,000. The Pentagon report on the 2023 numbers came out in May. Over the course of the war in Afghanistan, 24 percent of active-duty women and 1.9 percent of active-duty men experienced sexual assault, according to the study. There are 1.3 million active-duty service members in the U.S. military.The Costs of War Project at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University is a nonpartisan research department focused on public accounting for the U.S. war on terrorism launched after the 9/11 attacks.The report also shows that minority service members, including from the LGBTQ community, experience disproportionately high rates of sexual assault.Stephanie Savell, director of the Costs of War Project, said the research shows how out-of-reach equality remains in the U.S. military.“While the military tells us there is more gender equality today because women are now allowed in combat, the sexual assault crisis reveals how women, people of color, and queer and transgender individuals are bearing the brunt of longstanding inequalities that haven’t gone away,” Savell said in a statement.Pressure from Congress, reports from the Government Accountability Office and other government institutions have tried to tackle the sexual assault crisis in the military for years, but it remains a persistent problem. The issue is also prevalent at the U.S. military academies.The independent study that the Costs of War Project used compiled data from multiple independent reports, along with data from the U.S. military’s official Sexual Assault Prevention and Response that tracks sexual assaults.The researchers said the range of two to four times higher than Pentagon estimates is considered a conservative but realistic number when looking at the independent data and comparing it to the U.S. military figures.
Lawmakers push Pentagon for clarity on domestic military deployments -- A pair of Democratic lawmakers are asking senior defense leaders to clarify the rules for deploying military personnel on U.S. soil amid increasing political rhetoric about changing such restrictions so that units can respond to immigration or protest problems. In a Wednesday letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. C.Q. Brown, the representatives — Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey — asked the leaders to clearly and publicly explain the limits of military use for domestic issues, calling it a matter “essential to maintaining our democracy” in the near future. Ad “We feel compelled to look ahead to decisions that you, as the most senior defense of‰cials, may be called upon to make in the next six months,” the pair wrote. “These decisions will fall squarely into the constitutional roles that you swore to uphold and we know you both respect. We are relying on you to preserve the system that our Founding Fathers designed.” In their letter, Slotkin and Sherrill — a former Navy pilot — asked the military leaders for public assurances that the limits on domestic use of military forces are still in effect, and that federal laws prohibit any president from ordering troops to circumvent those rules for political purposes. They also asked for assurances from the Pentagon leaders that “if a President were to issue such an [unlawful] order, you would refuse to carry out the order.”
Lawmakers ask top Pentagon officials to ensure military is not swept up in politics, election --Two Democratic lawmakers sent a letter this week to top Pentagon officials asking them to ensure that the military stays out of the 2024 election, domestic affairs and politics as former President Trump has campaigned on sending federal troops to the southern border and cities struggling with crime. “There is no greater responsibility than the oath of office we swear to the Constitution,” Rep.Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.), a former Navy helicopter pilot, wrote in a statement. “Donald Trumpbetrayed that oath time and again, particularly on January 6 when he jeopardized the peaceful transfer of power. “As we prepare for another presidential election, we are calling on our military leaders to reject improper political influence and to take necessary steps to preserve the bedrock foundation of our democracy.” Sherrill wrote the letter alongside Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), a former CIA officer, to call on Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and other senior military officials to serve as “guardrails against using the military in domestic affairs” and to “preserve the system that our Founding Fathers designed.” They specifically called on the Pentagon to reaffirm that federal law prohibits the direct participation of soldiers in domestic law enforcement; that the deployment of troops under the Insurrection Act, unless specific conditions are met, is illegal; and that troops cannot be deployed to respond to the exercise of free speech. In their joint statement, Slotkin and Sherrill point to statements by potential members of Trump’s Cabinet who “have called for the use of military force to participate actively in unconstitutional domestic activities such as law enforcement and immigration.” Trump said in an interview with Time in 2023 that he would be open to sending the military to the southern border to deal with illegal immigration. “I don’t think I’d have to do that. I think the National Guard would be able to do that. If they weren’t able to, then I’d use the military,” he said during that Time interview when asked if he would use the military to carry out his mass deportation plans.When asked about the Posse Comitatus Act, which prohibits the usage of federal troops as a police force in all but the most extreme circumstances, Trump insisted that undocumented immigrants were “not civilians.” “These are people that aren’t legally in our country. This is an invasion of our country,” he said. Slotkin and Sherrill also wrote about Project 2025, a 1000-page-long conservative blueprint for a second Trump administration largely written by Trump administration officials. The Trump campaign has worked to distance itself from Project 2025, which envisions a radically transformed federal government in which Trump would fire thousands of civil servants and replace them with political appointees. “The authors of Project 2025 — a ‘playbook’ for the start of a Trump presidency written by close Trump associates — have drawn up plans to invoke the Insurrection Act from the start of a second Trump presidency to deploy military personnel to fill domestic law enforcement roles across the country,” they wrote in their statement.
The FBI 'Visits' Scott Ritter - Antiwar.com - Among the lesser-known holes in the Constitution cut by the Patriot Act of 2001 was the destruction of the “wall” between federal law enforcement and federal spies. The wall was erected in the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978, which statutorily limited all federal domestic spying to that which was authorized by the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court. The wall was intended to prevent law enforcement from accessing and using data gathered by America’s domestic spying agencies. Government spying is rampant in the U.S., and the feds regularly engage in it as part of law enforcement’s well-known antipathy to the Fourth Amendment. Last week, the FBI admitted as much when it raided the home of former Chief U.N. Weapons Inspector Scott Ritter. Scott is a courageous and gifted former Marine. He is also a fierce and articulate antiwar warrior. After President Richard Nixon resigned the presidency, Congress investigated his use of the FBI and CIA as domestic spying agencies. Some of the spying was on political dissenters and some on political opponents. None of it was lawful. What is lawful spying? The modern Supreme Court has made it clear that domestic spying is a “search” and the acquisition of data from a search is a “seizure” within the meaning of the Fourth Amendment. That amendment requires a warrant issued by a judge based on probable cause of crime presented under oath to the judge for a search or seizure to be lawful. The amendment also requires that all search warrants specifically describe the place to be searched and the person or thing to be seized.The language in the Fourth Amendment is the most precise in the Constitution because of the colonial disgust with British general warrants. A general warrant was issued to British agents by a secret court in London. General warrants did not require probable cause, only “governmental needs.” That, of course, was no standard whatsoever, as whatever the government wants it will claim that it needs.General warrants authorized government agents to search wherever they wished and to seize whatever they found – stated differently, to engage in fishing expeditions.FISA required that all domestic spying be authorized by the new and secret FISA Court. Congress then unconstitutionally lowered the probable cause of crime standard for the FISA Court to probable cause of speaking to a foreign agent, and it permitted the FISA Court to issue general warrants.Yet, the FISA compromise that was engineered in order to attract congressional votes was the wall. The wall prohibited whatever data was acquired from surveillance conducted pursuant to a FISA warrant to be shared with law enforcement. So, if a janitor in the Russian embassy was really an intelligence agent who was distributing illegal drugs as lures to get Americans to spy for him, any telephonic evidence of his drug dealing could not be given to the FBI. The purpose of the wall was not to protect foreign agents from domestic criminal prosecutions; it was to prevent American law enforcement from violating personal privacy by spying on Americans without search warrants. Fast forward to the weeks after 9/11 when, with no serious debate, Congress enacted the Patriot Act. It removed the wall between law enforcement and spying. And by 2001, the FISA Court had on its own lowered the standard for issuing a search warrant from probable cause of speaking to a foreign agent to probable cause of speaking to a foreign person. This, too, was unlawful and unconstitutional. The language removing the wall sounds benign, as it requires that the purpose of the spying must be national security and the discovered criminal evidence – if any – must be accidental or inadvertent. In January 2023, the FBI admitted that it intentionally uses the CIA and the NSA to spy on Americans as to whom it has neither probable cause of crime nor even articulable suspicion of criminal behavior. Articulable suspicion is the linchpin of commencing all criminal investigations. Without requiring suspicion, we are back to fishing expeditions. Last week, when FBI agents searched Ritter’s home in upstate New York, in addition to trucks, guns, a SWAT team and a bomb squad, they arrived with printed copies of two years’ of Ritter’s emails and texts that they obtained without a search warrant. To do this, they either hacked into Ritter’s electronic devices – a felony – or they relied on their cousins, the CIA and the NSA, to do so, also a felony. But the CIA charter prohibits its employees from engaging in domestic surveillance and law enforcement. Nevertheless, we know the CIA is physically or virtually present in all of the 50 U.S. statehouses. And the NSA is required to go to the FISA Court when it wants to spy. We know that this, too, is a charade, as the NSA regularly captures every keystroke triggered on every mobile device and desktop computer in the U.S., 24/7, without warrants. The search warrant for Ritter’s home specified only electronic devices, of which he had three. Yet, the 40 FBI agents there stole a truckload of materials from him, including his notes from his U.N. inspector years in the 2000s, a draft of a book he is in the midst of writing and some of his wife’s personal property. The invasion of Scott Ritter’s home was a perversion of the Fourth Amendment, a criminal theft of his private property and an effort to chill his free speech. But it was not surprising. This is what has become of federal law enforcement today. The folks we have hired to protect the Constitution are destroying it.
The US Has No Right to Interfere in Venezuela's Election - On July 28, Venezuela held its national election. The most recent results released by Venezuela’s National Electoral Council say that the incumbent president, and successor to Hugo Chávez, Nicolás Maduro received 51.95% of the vote versus 43.18% for the opposition candidate, Edmundo González. The opposition has countered with the claim that Gonzales defeated Maduro by a margin of 67% to 30%. The U.S. response to the outcome has been disorganized and confused. What the official U.S. position on Venezuela’s election is seems to depend on which official speaks for the United States. Vice-President and presumptive presidential candidate Kamala Harris appeared to quickly recognize Maduro’s victory when she said less than half an hour after the polls closed that “The United States stands with the people of Venezuela who expressed their voice in today’s historic presidential election. The will of the Venezuelan people must be respected.” The White House was less certain about the official results. White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby told a press conference that “we have serious concerns that the result as announced does not reflect the will and the votes of the Venezuelan people.” He added that the White House would “hold judgement” until “the electoral authorities publish the full, detailed tabulation of votes.”The State Department was less patient. Secretary of State Antony Blinkendeclared that “the announcement of results by the Maduro-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) were deeply flawed, yielding an announced outcome that does not represent the will of the Venezuelan people.” He then concluded that González “received the most votes in this election by an insurmountable margin” and congratulated him on “his successful campaign.” Blinken then called for “respectful, peaceful transition.” But then, four days later, a confused State Department walked back Blinken’s recognition of González. Responding to a question at a press conference for clarification on whether the U.S. was recognizing an interim president or just not recognizing Maduro, State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller walked back the Secretary of State’s prior declaration,saying instead that “That’s not a step that we are taking today.”The U.S. position is not only disorganized, it is overreach. Though the results of the election are of primary importance to the people of Venezuela, and though the determination of those results is an essential responsibility of the Venezuelan people, it is not the responsibility of the United States. The U.S. has not been handed the role of global election arbiter by anyone. The U.S. has no role to play in the Venezuelan people’s sovereign determination of the outcome of their election. Nor has the U.S. earned the right to judge or comment on election interference. Not just because of their appalling record of regime changes globally, nor even because of their horrific history of coups in Latin America, but because of their long record of election interference and coups in Venezuela and, most relevantly, in the current Venezuelan election.
ICE Updates On Illegal Alien Crimes Will "Make Your Head Spin" --President Biden's appointed "border czar," Kamala Harris, has single-handedly failed the American people. She owes citizens a straightforward explanation of why this administration facilitated the greatest illegal alien invasion this nation has ever seen. Some of these migrants are on FBI terror watchlists. "In less than four years, the Biden-Harris Administration has released into the United States more than 5.4 million illegal aliens, with another 1.9 million illegal alien 'gotaways' escaping into the country during the same time," GOP House Judiciary Committee wrote in areport last week. The report also revealed about 100 illegal aliens that crossed the border were on the terrorist "watch list." Biden officially tasked VP Harris on March 24, 2021, "to lead our efforts with Mexico and the Northern Triangle…in stemming the movement of…migration to our southern border."The illegal alien invasion began shortly after VP Harris became border czar. And the insanity followed:
- Say Their Names: Young American Women Are Being Raped & Murdered By Illegal Aliens
- Homeland Security Memo Warns Violent Venezuelan Gang 'Green Lights' Members To Kill US Cops
- Cartel Drones Fly With Explosives Near Southern Border
Tasking VP Harris as the border czar was doomed to fail from the very beginning. As a senator, she compared US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to the KKK during a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee in 2018. "We have to critically re-examine ICE and it's role ... and we probably have to start thinking about starting from scratch," Harris also said as a senator in an interview with MSNBC.
At Las Vegas rally, Kamala Harris vows to “walk the walk” in waging war on immigrants - Speaking to some 12,000 people at a campaign rally in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday night, Vice President Kamala Harris chastised ex-president Donald Trump for blocking a far-right Senate border bill previously negotiated by Senators James Lankford (Republican-Oklahoma), Kyrsten Sinema (Independent-Arizona) and Chris Murphy (Democrat-Connecticut). “Earlier this year we had a chance to pass the toughest bipartisan border security bill in decades,” Harris said. “But Donald Trump tanked the bill because he thought it would help him win an election.“Well, when I am president I will sign that bill into law,” she declared.The bill Harris pledged to sign into law devotes nearly $20 billion to the border security apparatus, including an infusion of nearly $8 billion to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), with over $3 billion of that amount earmarked for the expansion of detention facilities to accommodate up to 50,000 people. The bill also allocates nearly $7 billion for Customs and Border Protection, including $723 million to hire more Border Patrol agents.While providing no “pathway to citizenship” for the over 2.5 million people brought here as children, known as Dreamers, the bill gives the president new legal authority to shut down ports of entry if an average of 5,000 migrants cross every day for a week, or if the number reaches 8,500 in a single day. Encouraging child separation and trafficking, unaccompanied minors from countries other than Canada and Mexico don’t count towards that total.The bill was endorsed earlier this year by Trump-aligned border police union head Brandon Judd, the US Chamber of Commerce and the Wall Street Journal. The Journal editorial board dubbed it a “Border Security Bill Worth Passing,” characterizing it as the “most restrictive migrant legislation in decades.”In her Vegas speech, Harris attacked Trump and the Republicans from the right, saying:We will address the issue of immigration. We know our immigration system is broken. And we know what it takes to fix it, comprehensive reform that includes, yes strong border security and an earned pathway to citizenship.Pledging to be a more effective persecutor of immigrants, Harris added, “Donald Trump doesn’t want to fix this problem… he talks a big game about border security, but he does not walk the walk.” In reality, both Trump’s Republicans and the Democratic Party, along with the ruling elite in every other capitalist country, are promoting nationalism and anti-immigrant chauvinism to divert mass social anger over war and inequality in a right-wing direction, divide the working class and destroy its democratic rights. In line with Harris’ comments Saturday night, the campaign released a new advertisement touting her “law and order” credentials and anti-immigrant bona fides. In the authoritarian 30-second ad, Harris is constantly flanked by police and border patrol agents, as a deep voice narrates:Kamala Harris has spent decades fighting violent crime. As a border state prosecutor she took on drug cartels and jailed gang members for smuggling weapons and drugs across the border.As vice president she backed the toughest border control bill in decades. And as president she will hire thousands of more border agents and crack down on fentanyl and human trafficking. Fixing the border is tough, so is Kamala Harris.
US Marshals Arrest Over 230 Fugitives, Including Rapists And Murderers, In Maryland Operation --The U.S. Marshals Service has announced the conclusion of “Operation Silver Shield,” a 90-day interagency operation that resulted in the arrest of 232 fugitives across Maryland, including individuals wanted for serious crimes such as rape and murder. The large-scale, public safety initiative, which ran from May through August 2024, targeted non-compliant sex offenders and fugitives associated with violent crimes, the U.S. Marshals said in an Aug. 9 press release. Among the arrested were 36 individuals wanted for sex offender registration violations, 17 for rape, and 14 for homicide.“The arrest of these fugitives represents a step in the right direction to keep Maryland safe,” Erek L. Barron, U.S. Attorney for the District of Maryland, said in a statement.As part of the operation, law enforcement also seized seven firearms and successfully recovered four critically missing children.Dozens of federal, state, and local agencies participated in the operation, with deputies from the District of Maryland prioritizing the arrest of non-compliant sex offenders, while members of the Capital Area Regional Fugitive Task Force, a unit of the U.S. Marshals, focused on catching violent fugitives.“Throughout this operation, we worked hand-in-hand with local communities to take dangerous offenders off the streets,“ Mathew Silverman, chief deputy U.S. Marshal for the District of Maryland, said in a statement, adding that the results of the operation reflect ”the true power of our public safety partnership.The Capital Area Regional Fugitive Task Force, which has apprehended over 78,000 fugitives since its inception in 2004, has partnership agreements with over 133 federal, state, and local agencies operating in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia.Besides the U.S. Marshals Service, some of the law enforcement agencies involved in Operation Silver Shield include the Baltimore Police Department, Homeland Security Investigations, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF), and the FBI.
GOP lawmaker squares off with USDA, tribes over farm bill land transfer --The decades-long battle over nearly 9,500 acres in Oklahoma is coming to a head in Washington, D.C. Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) secured a farm bill provision that would block transfer of the land, which currently hosts a United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) research facility and sits atop sizable oil and gas reserves, “except as otherwise specifically authorized by law.” The USDA facility that occupies part of Fort Reno is the Oklahoma and Central Plains Agricultural Research Center, previously Grazinglands Research Laboratory, which Lucas has called “one of the crown jewels of our nation’s agricultural research facilities.” The provision could clear the runway to expand agricultural and climate research by removing the need to extend a transfer moratorium in future farm bills. But it has also raised alarm within the USDA and among leaders of the Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribes, which have vigorously pursued their contested claim to the lands dating back more than 150 years. A USDA spokesperson told The Hill that Lucas’s provision is a “move that defies decades of effort by Tribes and hundreds of years of Tribal history.” “The Department acknowledges that any transfer of land is complicated, but is committed to finding a long-term workable solution with the Tribe,” the USDA spokesperson said. Cheyenne and Arapaho Gov. Reggie Wassana told The Hill that the last time he met with Lucas, in 2021, he “pled with him to support us.” “When somebody introduces a bill that says land will not be returned, it doesn’t seem like there’s an effort to work with the tribes,” Wassana said. There has been language preventing the land from being “conveyed or transferred in whole or in part” in every version of the farm bill, the massive legislative package governing food and agriculture programs passed by Congress every five years or so, since 2002. Previous iterations of the provision have set an expiration date or extended that date by five, 10and 15 years since the 2008 farm bill. But the latest language, tucked on page 547 of the nearly 1,000-page draft, strikes the time marker, meaning any move to transfer the land would have to go through Congress, closing off administrative avenues. “It is a parochial issue specific to Oklahoma’s Third Congressional District therefore the Committee worked directly with former House Committee on Agriculture Chairman Lucas, who represents the facility, when drafting this provision,” Ben Goldey, communications director for House Agriculture Committee Chair Glenn Thompson (R-Pa.), who released the draft text of the bill in May, told The Hill. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack also pushed back on “the notion that we should be restricted from” working with the tribes to advance a potential return during at the National Congress of American Indians in June.“The current House version of the farm bill that passed through the Agricultural Committee basically contains a provision that would say, ‘Under no circumstances should you do this.’ We’re obviously going to have to push back hard on that notion, which I am prepared to do and, which in the context of this meeting, I’m doing right now by saying that’s not something that’s acceptable to us,” Vilsack said. “There’s important research that’s being done [at the Oklahoma and Central Plains Agricultural Research Center] and we want to see that research continue,” Vilsack added. “Is there a way in which land can be restored and research continue? I think there probably is a way to do that, and I think we ought to be exploring that more quickly and more fully.” The Oklahoma and Central Plains Agricultural Research Center conducts research programs and projects broken out into four research units: agroclimate and hydraulic engineering; livestock, forage and pasture management; peanuts and small grains; and the Southern Plains Climate Hub, which focuses on how to reduce climate-related agriculture production risks. Lucas has pushed to expand that research, requesting $1.3 million in May to renovate parts ofthe facility. “The center’s mission to improve crop and pasture-based livestock production systems is made possible by the large swath of pristine prairie that the center is located on. This allows for unique research into livestock systems and plant germplasms that occur throughout the region,” Lucas said in a statement The Hill by a spokesperson. “The fact is, this type of research can only be done in El Reno and it benefits all communities in Oklahoma and across the Central Plains.”
Labor Talks At Major US East Coast & Gulf Coast Ports "Very Far Apart" As Potential Paralyzing Strike Looms --The US may be headed for a supply chain crisis this fall as a labor contract between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) approaches expiration on Sept. 30. This could ignite strikes as soon as Oct. 1 across major ports along the US East Coast and Gulf Coast, instantly paralyzing complex supply chains ahead of the Christmas shopping season. The ILA represents more than 45,000 dockworkers across the US at major ports. On Sunday, Executive Vice President Dennis Daggettaddressed members in a Facebook post, indicating talks between the union and USMX are still far apart. Here is Daggett's memo to union members: I want to address the recent communication from USMX and make it clear—do not be fooled by this letter. We are indeed continuing to bargain in good faith to settle all local contracts, but the reality on the ground is far different from the picture they are trying to paint.Employers like APM Mobile have been dragging their feet on resolving critical issues. One such issue is their use of Autogate in TIR Lanes, which we consider a clear violation of our Master Agreement. This isn't just happening in one location; many other ports are facing similar challenges in getting local management to agree on terms and conditions for local supplemental agreements.On top of that, when it comes to the Master Contract negotiations, let me be frank—we are very far apart, particularly on the economic issues. In fact, we are at an impasse. The propaganda coming from USMX is just that—propaganda, likely the work of a PR firm trying to spin the situation in their favor.Remember, unless you hear it directly from us, it's not the truth. Stay strong, stay united, and know that we are fighting every day for the fair contract that you deserve. ILA workers "operate multimillion-dollar pieces of equipment with precision, maintain them with the expertise of highly skilled technicians, and clerks who manage complex operating systems for gates, vessels, and yards," the union head said in a separate Facebook post from several days ago. Daggett continued, "What I find particularly appalling is that while CEOs like those from CMA-CGM are taking home bonuses in the billions, ocean carriers continue to rake in skyrocketing profits by raising rates on their customers due to global conflicts or natural disruptions." Bloomberg noted, "Daggett has repeatedly warned of a strike if no deal is reached by the deadline and last weekend set a meeting in early September for union delegates to discuss wage demands and strike strategies." USMX released a statement late last week: "We are very far apart, particularly on the economic issues. In fact, we are at an impasse."Major importers are paying close attention because any strikes at major ports on the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports will instantly spark significant delays in the delivery of goods and the return of the inflation monster that still haunts Fed head, Jerome Powell.
Improper Social Security payments surpass $1B amid ‘record-breaking backlog’: Report – The Social Security Administration (SSA) is wrestling with a “record-breaking backlog” of cases that has led to roughly $1.1 billion in improper payments, according to a new report by the SSA Office of the Inspector General (OIG).The OIG, which works to improve efficiency and effectiveness in the SSA’s programs, looked at both wrong payments and so-called pending actions that were left unresolved at processing centers between the fiscal years 2018 and 2023.The longer that underpayments or overpayments went on without correction, the more the mistakes mounted. The OIG said the average processing time for an improper payment in their sample was 698 days.“Customer satisfaction has been an ongoing concern for SSA. This report continues to highlight the urgency for SSA to reach its pending actions performance goal and to ensure beneficiaries receive their proper payments as promptly as possible,” said Michelle Anderson, Assistant Inspector General for Audit serving as the Acting Inspector General for SSA.The Social Security Administration told the OIG the backlog was in part due to unexpected staff reductions, heavier workloads and less overtime funding at processing centers.In one instance, the OIG found that the SSA overpaid a disability beneficiary by about $62,000. The SSA learned of the mistake in June 2021, after the beneficiary had already received an extra $9,000 over four months, but the administration didn’t take action to collect the overpayment until May, 2023, the OIG found. By then, the beneficiary had received an additional $53,000.The OIG found that although the SSA met its performance goals in four of the six years, the backlog of pending actions at processing centers didn’t diminish, rather it grew from 3.2 million in 2018 to 4.6 million in 2023. As the backlog grew, so did the time it took to resolve pending cases, driving up the total value of unresolved payments.The OIG estimates that if the SSA had resolved the backlog of pending actions at the “earliest possible instance,” there would have been approximately $534 million in improper payments to 528,000 beneficiaries. After failing to correct those payments for months, many for over a year, the improper payment total ballooned to an estimated $1.1 billion, according to the report.The SSA has agreed to the following recommendations made by the OIG, according to Anderson:
- Develop a workload and staffing plan that will allow the SSA to reduce the backlog from year to year
- Create performance measures with goals to reduce the pending actions at processing centers
- Establish timeframe targets for processing centers to keep improper payments from growing and to reduce the burden on beneficiaries
In March of 2024, the SSA announced that it was changing the recovery process for overpayments to ease the financial hardship on beneficiaries by reducing the default monthly withholding rate to ten percent (or $10, whichever is greater) from 100 percent.Beneficiaries who were overpaid can also appeal to have the collection process waived entirely if they think it was not their fault and they aren’t able to pay it back.
Hackers may have stolen every American's Social Security number: Report — Public advocates fear a possible tsunami of identity theft could be coming after a hacking group claims it was able to steal nearly 3 billion personal records, including Social Security numbers.The theft happened in April, according to a class-action lawsuit filed in federal court in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. It says the hacking group known as USDoD stole the records from National Public Data, which offers personal information to employers, private investigators and others who do background checks.USDoD reportedly tried to sell the data for $3.5 million but has now posted most of it for free on an online exchange for stolen personal data. It claims to have 2.9 billion records containing personal data from everyone in the U.S., Canada and the U.K., though those populations add up to roughly 440 million.Several news sites have examined portions of the data and reported that they appear to be real people’s information. National Public Data has not responded to numerous media requests for comment.According to the website Bleeping Computer, “Each record consists of the following information – a person’s name, mailing addresses, and Social Security number, with some records including additional information, like other names associated with the person. None of this data is encrypted.”Experts say the most effective action you can take right now is to freeze your credit files at the three major credit bureaus: Experian, Equifax and TransUnion. That will prevent others from signing up for credit cards or opening other financial accounts in your name.
Agencies roll out initiative making it easier to click unsubscribe button - The Biden administration on Monday launched a new initiative, “Time is Money,” aimed at cracking down on “corporate tricks” that cause unnecessary aggravation in Americans’ lives. Federal agencies announced new steps to reduce excessive paperwork, shorten wait times and make it easier to cancel subscriptions and memberships. “These hassles don’t just happen by accident. Companies often deliberately design their business processes to be time-consuming or otherwise burdensome for consumers, in order to deter them from getting a rebate or refund they are due or canceling a subscription or membership they no longer want — all with the goal of maximizing profits,” the administration wrote in a press release on Monday. The Federal Trade Commission is currently reviewing public comments about a proposed rule to require companies to make it as easy to cancel a subscription or service as it was to sign up for it. On Monday, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) launched an inquiry into whether to extend those requirements to communications companies. Other steps target customer service shortfalls, including cracking down on endless “doom loops” that prevent customers from speaking to a real person when calling for assistance. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is taking on a rulemaking process to require companies under its jurisdiction to let consumers talk to a real person by pressing just one button. The FCC will launch an inquiry into considering the same requirements for phone, broadband and cable companies, the Biden administration said. “Too often customers seeking assistance from a real person are instead sent through a maze of menu options and automated recordings, wasting their time and failing to get the support they need. In a recent survey, respondents said that being forced to listen to long messages before being permitted to speak to a live representative was their top customer service complaint,” the press release read. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and acting Labor Secretary Julie Su are calling on health insurance companies to consider implementing the same requirement. Becerra and Su also penned a letter Monday to health insurance companies and providers calling on them to take “concrete actions to save people time and money when interacting with their health coverage.” The Office of Personnel Management will also require Federal Employees Health Benefits and Postal Service Health Benefits to make it easier to submit out-of-network claims online.
Dr. Fauci Admits He's Infected With COVID For Third Time After Being "Vaccinated And Boosted Six Times" - Dr. Anthony Fauci revealed that he’s been infected with COVID for a third time despite having been “vaccinated and boosted six times.” Yes, really.The former chief medical advisor to the president, who became the face of the COVID vaccination drive from late 2020 onwards, reacted to catching COVID-19 yet again by thanking the vaccine. Dr. Fauci has COVID again for the third time and has been vaccinated and boosted six times pic.twitter.com/Gsdz9bDCbP “ I got infected about two weeks ago, it was my third infection, and I have been vaccinated and boosted a total of six times,”said Fauci. Fauci, who back in 2021 said, “If you get vaccinated, you are protected,” seemingly hasn’t been protected from catching the virus despite receiving half a dozen vaccines. He also separately asserted during the same year, “When people get vaccinated, they can feel safe that they are not gonna get infected.”Those comments have aged rather badly. Respondents on X had a field day.
Most Republicans support Supreme Court reforms in Joe Biden's proposal: Poll -- Most Republicans support the policy proposals in President Biden’s plan to reform the Supreme Court, according to a new USA Today/Ipsos poll. Biden outlined a three-pronged approach to reforming the high court in a speech last month, calling for a binding code of conduct, 18-year term limits for Supreme Court justices, and a Constitutional amendment declaring no one — not even the president — is above the law. The latest poll shows 70 percent of Republicans support a binding code of conduct for justices that would require disclosure of gifts, prohibit involvement in political activity, and mandate recusal from cases involving conflicts of interest for themselves or their spouses. Slimmer majorities of Republicans support the constitutional amendment proposal (54 percent) and the term limits proposal (51 percent). Total support among respondents for the code of conduct is 76 percent, including 89 percent of Democrats and 75 percent of independents. For the constitutional amendment, overall support is at 70 percent, with 89 percent of Democrats and 72 percent of independents supporting the reform. For term limits, 63 percent of total respondents support the reform, including 83 percent of Democrats and 61 percent of independents. When respondents were asked whether they support the reforms, they were not told Biden proposed them. Biden announced the proposals at a speech last month at the LBJ Presidential Library. He used his remarks to warn against the dangers of an “extreme” and polarized court, arguing it would undo civil rights protections and grant excessive powers to future presidents. “I have great respect for our institutions, the separation of powers laid out in our Constitution,” Biden said in his remarks late last month. “What’s happening now is not consistent with that doctrine of separation of powers. Extremism is undermining the public confidence in the court’s decisions.” He cited a slew of recent Supreme Court opinions that he said “have undermined long-established civil rights principles and protections.” He pointed to the 2013 Shelby County case that gutted aspects of the Voting Rights Act; the 2022 ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade; the 2023 ruling that ended affirmative action; and this year’s ruling that granted wide immunity to presidents for official acts taken while in office. “This nation was founded on the principle there are no kings in America,” Biden said. “Each of us legally follows the law. No one is above the law. For all practical purposes, the court’s decision almost certainly means that a president can violate their oath, flout our laws and face no consequences.” The poll also comes as confidence in the court remains historically low, with more Americans, especially Democrats, saying they see the justices driven by partisan interests. The Supreme Court has also been subject to recent scandals involving the justices, including reports of conservative Justice Clarence Thomas accepting luxury trips and gifts from a billionaire and Republican mega-donor, though the controversies have implicated justices in both ideological camps.
Donald Trump narrowly leads Kamala Harris in Michigan: Poll -- Former President Trump is narrowly leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the critical swing state of Michigan, according to an AARP survey released Thursday. Trump leads Harris with 45 percent support to her 43 percent among likely voters in the battleground state, while 8 percent said they would support a third-party candidate. However, in a head-to-head match-up, the findings show Trump and Harris tied at 48 percent. The poll was commissioned by the AARP and was jointly conducted by the Republican polling firm Fabrizio Ward and the Democratic polling firm Impact Research. The poll also found that among voters 50 years and older, Trump led Harris by 2 points head-to-head and with a third party candidate on the ballot. The findings also suggest Democrats are running strong down the ballot in Michigan’s Senate race. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) leads her GOP opponent, former Rep. Mike Rogers, 47 percent to 44 percent among all likely voters, with 8 percent saying they are undecided. But among voters older than 50, the two Senate contenders are tied at 48 percent, again with 8 percent saying they are undecided. The AARP poll out of Michigan comes as other recent surveys indicate Harris is closing the gap in Michigan and Rust Belt states that are seen as key to winning in November. A New York Times/Siena College poll released last week shows Harris leading Trump 50 percent to 46 percent in each of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The Hill’s Decision Desk polling average shows Harris ahead of Trump by 2 points in Michigan, 3.5 points in Wisconsin, and 0.6 percent in Pennsylvania. The AARP commissioned survey was conducted Aug. 7-11 among 1,382 likely voters.
New York judge rules Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. off state ballot - On Monday, a judge in Albany, New York, ruled that presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. will not appear on the state’s ballot in November on the grounds that he does not live at the address on his nominating petitions. In handing down her reactionary and undemocratic ruling, Judge Christina Ryba is acting on behalf of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and its super PAC (political action committee) Clear Choice, the well-funded legal operation whose sole purpose is to remove third-party and independent candidates from the November ballot. Clear Choice organized the challenge to RFK’s nominating petitions.The stated objectives of Clear Choice, according to a three-sentence description on the group’s website, is to eliminate candidates who have “played a decisive role as spoilers in recent presidential elections—often helping the candidate who wins fewer votes secure victory in the electoral college.”The reference to “spoilers” is revealing. The Democrats are showing their contempt for the voting public and the fundamental right to vote for a candidate of one’s choosing. Behind this language stands the financial oligarchy in the US which has no interest in democratic processes.The billionaire elite is seeking to maintain the capitalist two-party monopoly under conditions of widespread opposition to the entire political setup and a movement to the left continues to grow by workers and young people. The Clear Choice statement continues with the claim that third party and independent candidates have “an outsized impact” on election results and “historically receive little scrutiny.” Clear Choice says it is seeking to “ensure accountability and ballot integrity for all presidential candidates in 2024.” With words that feed into Donald Trump’s bogus claims of stolen elections, the Democrats are bringing their substantial legal and financial resources to bear to run roughshod over voter rights and use the courts to block alternative candidates from appearing on the ballot.The decision to bar Kennedy from the New York ballot is the latest in the campaign mounted across the country by the Democrats to remove candidates, particularly in key battleground states. As reported previously on the WSWS, nominating petitions filed by Cornel West in Michigan have been challenged and the Democrats have previously excluded West, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and the Libertarian Party from the ballot in New York state. West has also been barred from the ballot by the Democratic Party-controlled election board in North Carolina, where he has been forced to mount an expensive legal effort to overturn the decision. In Georgia, the Democratic Party challenged West, Stein, Kennedy and Claudia de la Cruz, candidate of the Party for Socialism and Liberation, on the grounds that separate petitions with 7,500 signatures each are required for each presidential elector, not just the candidates, and that some electors had failed to pay a nominal $1.50 filing fee.In her ruling, Judge Ryba wrote that the residential address Kennedy used for his ballot access submission was not “bona fide and legitimate” but “merely a ‘sham’ address that he assumed for the purpose of maintaining his voter registration.”Kennedy’s lawyer, William F. Savino, said in an email to the New York Times that the candidate had “always planned to appeal any adverse ruling.” The Kennedy campaign said on Monday that it would file a lawsuit in federal court in Manhattan seeking to overturn the state court ruling. The campaign’s senior counsel, Paul Rossi, said:The 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution governs the residency of presidential and vice-presidential candidates, not state law. If state court judges are going to ignore the Constitution, the federal courts must step in to protect voters’ rights.The bogus residency disqualification is doubly significant for the Kennedy campaign because, if successful, it can potentially be used to remove him from the ballot in 12 other states. So far, Kennedy is on the ballot in 19 states, including the battleground states of Michigan and North Carolina, and the campaign has submitted petitions or filed for third-party status in more than 20 others, including New York.
Donald Trump: 'I'm entitled to personal attacks' on Kamala Harris --Former President Trump on Thursday dismissed calls from allies for him to refocus on policy, saying he was “entitled to personal attacks” against Vice President Harris as polls show her erasing his polling lead. Trump held a press conference at his Bedminster, N.J., property, where he delivered remarks for close to an hour before taking questions from reporters. He was asked by multiple journalists about criticism from some Republicans that he needs to be more disciplined and lay off the personal attacks on his opponent. “As far as the personal attacks, I’m very angry at her because of what she’s done to the country,” Trump said. “I think I’m entitled to personal attacks. I don’t have a lot of respect for her. I don’t have a lot of respect for her intelligence, and I think she’ll be a terrible president. “And I think it’s very important that we win,” Trump continued. “And whether the personal attacks are good, bad. She certainly attacks me personally. She actually called me weird.” Asked specifically about comments from former rival Nikki Haley that Trump’s campaign needs to shift its strategy, Trump said he appreciates her advice but that he would run his campaign “my way.” Trump has struggled to deliver a consistent message targeting Harris, even as Republicans argue they have a strong case against her on the economy and immigration. While the former president has at times focused on the issues, he has also attacked the vice president’s biracial heritage, her laugh and her intelligence. The former president’s press conference was his second in as many weeks as he seeks to put a dent in Harris’s momentum since she replaced President Biden as the Democratic nominee in late July. Polling published Wednesday from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report showed Harris leading Trump in five out of seven battleground states likely to decide November’s election: Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Trump led Harris in Nevada, while the two candidates were tied in Georgia. Trump earlier Thursday announced his campaign was bringing aboard several new hires, including Corey Lewandowski, who managed his campaign for a stretch in 2016 and authored a book titled, “Let Trump Be Trump.” The former president pushed back on the idea that the staffing changes were a sign of a broader strategy shift, however. “We have great people,” Trump said, praising campaign co-managers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita as “fantastic.”
GOP leaders push House members to raise more cash to combat Harris enthusiasm -Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), the chair of the House GOP campaign arm, encouraged members to ramp up fundraising efforts and investment Thursday during a private conference call, as Vice President Harris’s nascent White House bid intensifies Democratic enthusiasm. The plea from Hudson, the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), came after the House Democratic campaign arm outraised its GOP counterpart in quarter two of this year, $44 million to $37 million. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) had its best online fundraising day of the cycle — nearly $1 million — in the 24 hours after Harris replaced President Biden at the top of the ticket. Hudson referenced the GOP’s lagging fundraising during the call, sources told The Hill, and asked members to provide more financial support because of the Democrats’ monetary advantage. Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) addresses reporters following the House Republican Leadership Election for the 118th session of Congress on Tuesday, November 15, 2022. “I need you to want it,” Hudson said at one point during the conversation while discussing the GOP’s lower fundraising numbers and the group’s hope of growing its majority, according to a source on the call. A second source said the tone of the call was not sounding the alarm, but outlining a “clear-eyed pathway to picking up seats in this new reality” as control of the chamber remains up for grabs. Hudson gave “a broad political update about [the] state of the race for the majority” with Harris as the Democratic nominee, the source said. “We have a great shot to pick up seats, but laying out the path to how,” the source added. House GOP leaders did, meanwhile, pledge more financial support for the NRCC. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) — who called in from Colorado, a stop on his 20-state swing in the month of August — announced he was transferring $4 million to the group, which brings his total contributions to more than $20 million since becoming Speaker, according to a source familiar with the matter. House GOP Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) announced $2 million between her New York battleground fund effort, the NRCC and candidates, putting her at $11 million spent this cycle on expanding the conference’s majority, according to a second source familiar. The call for cash comes as Republicans continue to grapple with the sustained momentum among Democrats, which began when Biden dropped out of the race and threw his support behind Harris, surged after she selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) as her running mate, and is expected to continue as the party convenes in Chicago next week for its convention.
Jan. 6 rioter who attacked police with a pole gets 20 years in prison -- A California man prosecutors say “viciously assaulted and injured police officers” at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, was on Friday sentenced to 20 years in prison, one of the longest terms handed down in connection with the attack. David Nicholas Dempsey pleaded guilty in January to two counts of assaulting police officers with a dangerous weapon. Prosecutors said he climbed over rioters like “human scaffolding” to reach the front of the crowd, where he began a “prolonged attack” on law enforcement using his hands, flag poles, broken furniture, pepper spray and “anything else he could get his hands on” — even attacking a fellow rioter who attempted to disarm him. “Dempsey was one of the most violent rioters, during one of the most violent stretches of time, at the scene of the most violent confrontations at the Capitol on January 6, 2021,” ffederal prosecutors wrote in their sentencing request to the judge.The sentence imposed on Dempsey by Judge Royce Lamberth, a Reagan appointee, is only topped by that of Enrique Tarrio, former national chair of the right-wing extremist Proud Boys, who was sentenced to 22 years in prison for plotting to halt the peaceful transfer of power from former President Trump to now-President Biden following the 2020 election.Dempsey’s sentence is longer than that of Stewart Rhodes, founder of the right-wing militia group Oath Keepers, who like Tarrio was convicted of seditious conspiracy. Rhodes wassentenced of 18 years in prison. Lamberth on Friday called Dempsey’s conduct on Jan. 6 “exceptionally egregious.” Dempsey called his own conduct “reprehensible” and apologized to law enforcement.Prosecutors sought an even longer term in prison, asking the judge to impose a sentence of 262 months, nearly 22 years. They credited the tall request to Dempsey’s violence on Jan. 6 and his “lengthy” prior criminal record.In a statement, U.S. Capitol Police chief Thomas Manger called Dempsey “one of the most violent participants” of the riot and credited him with leading assaults on numerous officers.Dempsey was previously convicted after spraying a crowd of anti-Trump protesters with a can of bear repellant in 2019 while wearing a Make America Great Again cap. Prosecutors said in court filings that the incident “ominously foreshadowed” his later assault on a police officer at the Capitol.
Sen. Grassley Questions Immigration Parole For New Alleged Trump Assassination Plotter - Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) posed a series of questions to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) seeking clarity on the recent arrest of a Pakistani national regarding his attempts to assassinate high-ranking U.S. government officials, allegedly including former President Donald Trump, in light of the fact that he was flagged on a federal watchlist and recently granted immigration parole.The alleged Pakistani plotter, Asif Raza Merchant, 46, was apprehended on July 12, 2024, when he attempted to leave the United States. Currently in federal custody in New York, Merchant’s plot was foiled when he allegedly conspired with undercover agents, who posed as assassins, to attempt to murder high-ranking U.S. citizens.The alleged scheme was conducted as part of a larger Iranian ploy to retaliate against the killing of General Qasem Soleimani, Attorney General Merrick B. Garland said, according to an Aug. 6 Justice Department (DOJ) statement that revealed the incident. Soleimani was taken down in 2020 during the Trump administration for aiming to blow up the U.S. Embassy in Iraq.On Aug. 9, Grassley wrote a letter to DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas asking him for more information regarding Merchant’s immigration parole status. Citing media reports, Grassley said that Merchant was interviewed by the Joint Terrorism Task Force upon his arrival in the United States on April 13 because he was flagged in the federal database as a “Lookout Qualified Person of Interest.”Despite this, Merchant was granted Significant Public Benefit Parole on April 13 by the DHS, which he overstayed after it expired on May 11, Grassley said. He asked the DHS to provide answers to the following:
- Did the DHS grant Merchant Significant Public Benefit Parole before or after his placement on the terrorist watchlist and being listed as a “Lookout Qualified Person of Interest”?
- On what basis was Merchant granted Significant Public Benefit Parole?
- Provide the entire Alien Registration File (A-File) for Asif Raza Merchant.
- How many individuals on the Terrorist Screening Database have DHS granted parole and allowed entry into the United States?
Following Merchant’s arrest, Garland said, “The Justice Department will spare no resource to disrupt and hold accountable those who would seek to carry out Iran’s lethal plotting against American citizens and will not tolerate attempts by an authoritarian regime to target American public officials and endanger America’s national security.”FBI Director Christopher Wray said of the incident: “This dangerous murder-for-hire plot exposed in today’s complaint allegedly was orchestrated by a Pakistani national with close ties to Iran and is straight out of the Iranian playbook.
Online calls for civil war soared after Trump assassination attempt --Online calls for violence, particularly a modern-day civil war, skyrocketed following the attempted assassination of former President Trump, domestic extremism experts said Tuesday.Moonshot, a research company that monitors online extremism, said it tracked 1,599 calls for a civil war — a 633 percent increase from a normal day — the day after the July 13 shooting in Pennsylvania, which killed one Trump rallygoer and injured two others, in addition to grazing the former president.CBS News was the first to report Moonshot’s research.The calls were observed across multiple online platforms, including Reddit, YouTube, 4chan and some far-right discussion sites, CBS reported.Moonshot also tracked 2,051 specific threats or encouragements to violence online in the 24 hours after the shooting, a figure that is more than double the average volume of daily threats, a company spokesperson told The Hill.“The uptick in online calls is fairly typical of online discourse in spaces that glorify violence,”Elizabeth Neumann, chief strategy officer for Moonshot, told CBS. “The fact is, there is an online ecosystem out there working day in, day out to encourage violence of all kinds, from political civil war to mindless school shootings.”The FBI has spent the past few weeks combing through the online history of the shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks, in an effort to determine a precise motive. In doing so, authorities found Crooks appeared to post concerning content, including the embrace of political violence, in the years leading up to the assassination attempt.Authorities discovered “a social media account which is believed to be associated with the shooter, in about the 2019, 2020 timeframe,” FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate said during a joint hearing of the Senate Judiciary and Homeland Security committees last week.“There were over 700 comments posted from this account. Some of these comments, if ultimately attributable to the shooter, appear to reflect antisemitic and anti-immigration themes, espouse political violence, and are extreme in nature,” Abbate said.FBI Director Christopher Wray told a House committee last month Crooks is believed to have conducted a Google search one week before the shooting, asking, “How far away was Oswald from Kennedy,” in a reference to Lee Harvey Oswald, the shooter who killed President John F. Kennedy on Nov. 22, 1963, in Dallas.The increase in calls for violence after last month’s shooting underscores a wider trend that mass violence is increasingly normalized and valorized on online spaces, Moonshot said.Releasing a report last month with Everytown for Gun Safety, Moonshot said it found “an ecosystem amplifying mass shootings is thriving online,” while a “large portion” of the ecosystem thinks of past perpetrators as heroes.“This is worrying because we know those that go on to perpetrate mass violence have often valorized previous killers,” the research company wrote.The Secret Service has faced massive backlash over its event preparation and response to the shooting, with the fallout prompting Director Kimberly Cheatle to resign after a disastrous appearance before Congress to review the incident.The Justice Department, through the FBI, is investigating the shooting, and Attorney GeneralMerrick Garland said it was “extremely alarming” that Crooks was able to get so close to Trump during the rally.
Sex, Suicide, And Terrible OpSec: Trump's Secret Service Detail Is A Mess - Rancor, recriminations, and serious formal misconduct complaints have plagued all levels of the Secret Service detail assigned to protect former President Donald Trump over the last year, distracting the team from its core mission of securing Trump from physical harm and preventing an assassination. Trump’s regular detail team, a force of 60 employees – special agents and support staff – has been beset by internal division, long workdays and weeks, and constant stress. Last year, the team lost one of its members to suicide.Among the allegations are accusations of improper sexual relationships or fraternization within the team, debilitating mental health issues, non-merit-based promotions, conflict of interest issues, unfair retaliation and the creation of inappropriate memes and social media posts.On May 15, the top two leaders of Trump’s detail sternly dressed down the entire 60-member staff in a virtual meeting, announcing formal investigations into what they argued were serious misconduct violations, several sources in the Secret Service with direct knowledge of the online meeting tell RealClearPolitics.Sean Curran, the detail leader and top boss of Trump’s regular 60-member protective team, and his deputy, Matthew Piant, complained of“rumors, innuendo and toxicity” among the detail, as well as “selfishness and immaturity.”They reminded all employees that they had worked to mentor and train them, and, up to this point, had refrained from referring agents and support employees for discipline even though there had been violations that they could have reported to agency headquarters for investigation.Curran and Piant complained that they were not getting the same treatment in response from the team. Over the last year, the two leaders have been the target of formal complaints, and some members on the team viewed the all-hands lecture as an effort to turn the tables and retaliate on those complaining about their leadership.
EU sends warning letter to Elon Musk ahead of Donald Trump interview -The European Union sent a warning letter to X owner Elon Musk on Monday reminding him of the bloc’s rules against promoting “harmful content” ahead of the billionaire tech mogul’s interview with former President Trump on the social platform. “With great audience comes greater responsibility,” wrote Thierry Breton, the EU’s commissioner for Internal Market, in a post on X. “As there is a risk of amplification of potentially harmful content in in connection with events with major audience around the world, I sent this letter to @elonmusk.” The letter reminded Musk that X is subject to the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA), the bloc’s relatively new law regulating illegal content and disinformation on large social media platforms. Breton noted this includes ensuring X has measures in place to prevent “the amplification of harmful content in connection with relevant events, including livestreaming, which, if unaddressed, might increase the risk profile of X and generate detrimental effects on civic discourse and public security.” “Let me clarify that any negative effect of illegal content on X in the EU … may be relevant in the context of the ongoing proceedings and of the overall assessment of X’s compliance with EU law,” the commissioner added. He pointed to the recent violent unrest in the United Kingdom as an example. A spokesperson recently said X’s response to the riots in the U.K. could influence its ongoing investigation into the platform’s compliance with the DSA, according to Reuters. The warning letter comes ahead of Musk’s interview with Trump on Monday night. Musk, who endorsed the former president’s bid for reelection last month, has said the “live conversation” will be “unscripted with no limits on subject matter.” X CEO Linda Yaccarino pushed back on the letter in a post on the platform, calling it an “unprecedented attempt to stretch a law intended to apply in Europe to political activities in the US.” “It also patronizes European citizens, suggesting they are incapable of listening to a conversation and drawing their own conclusions,” she added.Musk himself responded with a meme from the movie “Tropic Thunder” that included an explict phrase written in block letters over a frame from the film.“To be honest, I really wanted to respond with this Tropic Thunder meme, but I would NEVER do something so rude & irresponsible!” he wrote on X.
Trump-Musk conversation delayed by tech issues as X founder blames cyberattack Monday’s highly anticipated conversation between former President Trump and Tesla founder Elon Musk on X was delayed by tech issues, which Musk blamed on an apparent cyberattack.Musk, who owns X and has endorsed Trump in the 2024 presidential race, posted that there appeared to be a “massive DDOS,” or denial-of-service attack, targeting the platform.“Working on shutting it down,” Musk posted. “Worst case, we will proceed with a smaller number of live listeners and post the conversation later.”Trump posted a link to the Spaces where the conversation would take place just before 8 p.m., but the event had not started as of 8:30 p.m. More than 700,000 users had joined as of 8:30 p.m.The conversation finally began at 8:42 p.m. with Musk acknowledging the delay.“As this massive attack illustrates, there’s a lot of opposition to people just hearing what President Trump has to say,” Musk said.Users posted about having difficulties joining the Space, sharing screenshots of messages saying “details not available” or “this space is not available.” Others were able to join but only heard filler music while waiting for Trump and Musk to begin talking.The technical problems were reminiscent of when Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) attempted to use Spaces to launch his 2024 presidential bid. That was also plagued by technical issues, as the call went in and out for more than 20 minutes before Mus ended the original Spaces and attempted to begin a new one.
Elon Musk interviews Trump -Tech billionaire Elon Musk will interview former President Trump on social platform X, marking the former president’s latest effort to take the spotlight in a tight race against Vice President Harris.It also seems to represent a return to X for the former president, who posted on the platform multiple times ahead of Monday’s interview, my colleague Miranda Nazzaro reported. The “live conversation” will be “unscripted with no limits on subject matter,” Musk wrote Sunday, adding it “should be highly entertaining.” He encouraged users to post specific questions and comments under the stream’s chat. The Trump campaign said it will be “the interview of the century.” Hours before the interview, the former president made his return to the platform for the first time in nearly a year, sharing a campaign advertisement. It marked just the second time Trump has posted on X since his account was suspended in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol and reinstated the following year. A little over an hour later, Trump posted again on the platform, lamenting about the state of the nation’s economy. “Are you better off now than you were when I was president?” he wrote. Our economy is shattered. Our border has been erased. We’re a nation in decline. Make the American Dream AFFORDABLE again. Make America SAFE again. Make America GREAT Again!” The platform, formerly known as Twitter, was a big part of Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign and his entire presidency. Musk’s reinstatement of Trump’s account in 2022 was part of the billionaire’s new approach to the platform’s content moderation policies after purchasing the company. The tech mogul endorsed Trump’s reelection bid shortly after the attempted assassination last month and has since levied a series of attacks against Harris.
Fascist billionaires Trump and Musk express hatred of working class and fear of Marxism in interview on X -- On Monday evening, the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, hosted aspiring dictator Donald Trump for over two hours on his social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter. There was no expectation that Monday’s event would be anything other than a love fest. The fascist Musk endorsed Trump’s presidential bid earlier this year and has pledged, and already given, millions of dollars towards his reelection. During Monday’s call, Musk once again endorsed Trump and called on listeners to vote for him in the upcoming election. Musk claimed that, despite the robust support from venture capitalists, bankers and hedge fund managers, a Kamala Harris administration would be “even further left” than Biden. Musk even insinuated that Harris, the former “top cop” (attorney general) of California, was a secret communist. “Her dad was a Marxist economist, that’s how she was brought up. ... We are at a fork in the road ... [Trump] is the path to prosperity, and Kamala is the opposite,” Musk said. Terrified of the growth of opposition to inequality, war and all of the other evils of capitalism among workers and youth, Musk and Trump are working together to cultivate and encourage fascistic tendencies in the United States and internationally. In hosting Trump, Musk, a recipient of billions of dollars in government contracts over the years, is using the platform he purchased in October 2022 to boost Trump and the fascistic MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) movement that has taken over the Republican Party. Billed as a “conversation” or “interview,” Monday’s filthy spectacle was in reality a digital campaign advertisement. Much of the airtime was dominated by Trump repeating chunks of his reactionary and well-worn stump speech. Musk frequently punctuated Trump’s semi-coherent ramblings with his endorsement, commonly in the form of “yea” or “yes.” Slated to begin at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, the X “Space” live-streaming platform was plagued by technical difficulties that delayed the program for over 40 minutes. Opening the interview, Musk claimed, without evidence, that the technical problems were the result of a denial-of-service attack (DDoS). However, The Verge, citing “a source at the company,” confirmed there was no attack, adding that there was a “99 percent” chance Musk was lying. Musk said the delay in the event demonstrated that “there’s a lot of opposition to people just hearing what President Trump has to say.” “But,” he continued, “I’m honored to have this conversation.” Once the interview finally began, Musk and Trump discussed their shared right-wing agenda, centered on mass deportations, mass layoffs, tax cuts and deregulation for corporations, the slashing of social spending and increased funding for police departments. Trump began by recounting last month’s failed assassination attempt against him at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, with Musk pointing out that Trump turned his head as the shooter fired to point to a chart focused on immigration. “It’s a sign you highlighted a serious issue,” Musk said. Trump proceeded to slander immigrants as criminals and rapists and attack Harris in her supposed capacity as “border czar.” He claimed, and Musk agreed, that the Biden administration allowed “20 million” immigrants, from “jails, prisons, mental asylums ... many terrorists” into the country. Repeating Trump’s campaign lines back at him, Musk replied that it was “essential to have a secure border.” Comparing immigrants, many of them families fleeing US-backed wars, coups and economic sanctions, to monsters, Musk said, “We don’t have a secure border. It looks like a World War Z zombie apocalypse at times.” Debuting a new fascist term, an excited Trump agreed and claimed that other countries were sending their “non-productive people.” Trump continued: They don’t want to work or whatever, and these countries are getting rid of non-productive people in the caravans in many cases, and they are also getting rid of their murderers and their drug dealers… Trump’s use of the term “non-productive” is a resurrection of the Nazis’ eugenicist ideology, which empowered Nazi medical officials to kill anyone deemed to be living a “life unworthy of living.” After commiserating over their shared hatred of immigrants, the billionaires turned to the topic of slashing social programs and departments that offer any benefit to the working class. Musk called for the formation of a “government efficiency commission,” on which he offered to serve, to ensure that “the taxpayers’ hard-earned money” was not being wasted. Trump enthusiastically replied, “I would love it. You, you’re the greatest cutter.” Recounting a story Musk previously told him, Trump said: I mean, I look at what you do. You walk in, you just say, “Do you want to quit? Then go on strike.” I won’t mention the name of the company, but they go on strike and you say, “That’s OK, you are all gone. You are all gone, so everyone one of you is gone.”
5 takeaways from the Trump-Musk conversation on X -Former President Trump spoke Monday with Tesla founder Elon Musk on X, which Musk owns, marking Trump’s most significant return to the social media platform since he was reinstated in 2023. Trump and Musk spoke for roughly two hours after their conversation was delayed because of technical issues that prevented many from initially joining. The two covered a range of topics, including the recent assassination attempt on Trump, his views on immigration and the economy, and the future of energy production. Musk has endorsed Trump in the 2024 campaign.Monday essentially marked Trump’s return to the social media platform where he largely built his political brand and rewrote the rules around presidential communication.Trump not only spoke with Musk on Spaces, but he posted several times on X in the hours ahead of the interview, a sign he may be dipping back into X as a means of communication at a tumultuous time for his reelection bid.At its peak, Monday’s Spaces had more than 1 million listeners.Trump was a prolific poster on the platform when it was known as Twitter until his account was suspended shortly after the Jan. 6 riots at the Capitol, when officials said his posts posed “the risk of further incitement of violence.”His account was reinstated last year after Musk’s takeover of the platform and its rebranding as X. He has posted once since, sharing his mugshot from a Georgia criminal indictment last August. The former president’s return to the platform comes as polls have shown Vice President Harris erasing Trump’s polling lead and generating significant enthusiasm after replacing President Biden atop the Democratic ticket.The former president’s chat with Musk frequently resembled one of his rallies, as Trump rambled often, attacked Harris and Biden as “incompetent,” and repeated many of the same anecdotes he tells at campaign events.But he also managed to focus on issues, inflation in particular, and avoided making the type of inflammatory, controversial comments that have plagued his recent public appearances.“The election is coming up and people want to hear about the economy. Food prices are up…and this stupid administration allowed this to happen,” Trump said. “And it’s a shame. And that’s the thing people most care about in my opinion.”The former president attacked Harris as a “San Francisco liberal” who had changed her tune on issues like fracking and defunding the police. He argued Harris would revert to more liberal stances if she is elected in November.Trump also attacked Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), for signing legislation requiring schools to provide free menstrual products in all public school bathrooms.Despite his focus on policy when going after Harris, Trump’s often rambling responses to Musk’s prompts still gave Democrats some soundbites they are likely to use against the former president.Trump reiterated his stance that he would try to shutter the Department of Education and allow states to handle the issue on their own, echoing a proposal from Project 2025, a Heritage Foundation document Democrats have aggressively promoted as a blueprint for Trump should he win.“Not every state will do great,” Trump said. “Of the 50, I would bet that 35 would do great.”Trump again claimed there are enemies “within” the country who are more dangerous than Russia or China.He levied plenty of name-calling, deriding Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) as a “loser,” ripping Vice President Harris as “incompetent” and claiming President Biden is “close to vegetable stage.”Musk, who has made clear his support for Trump, frequently offered his own prescriptions for certain policy issues or tried to coax the former president into agreeing with his own point of view.Musk said his views on climate change were that the country should not “vilify” the oil and gas industry but that “we should lean in the direction of sustainability.” Trump has previously said he’s for “clean air” and “clean water” but has cast doubt on the legitimacy of climate change.As the two exchanged thoughts on immigration and the surge of migrants at the southern border, Musk opined on his own beliefs about immigration, which was a much softer view than Trump often espouses. The Tesla founder said he thinks legal immigration is good and that most of those who cross the border illegally are also good people, but that there needs to be a strong vetting process to prevent those who are dangerous from getting in. Trump, by comparison, has promised the largest deportation operation in the country’s history if he is elected. He has falsely claimed that other nations are emptying their prisons and mental institutions and sending those individuals to the southern border and that some entering the U.S. speak languages nobody has heard of.Later in the interview, Musk repeatedly raised the prospect of creating a government commission to study the national debt and how Congress could reassess spending.“I think it would be great to just have a government efficiency commission that looks at these things to make sure taxpayer money is spent in a good way,” Musk told Trump. “I’d be happy to help out on such a commission.”
Jack Smith faces a crossroads in Trump prosecution -- Special counsel Jack Smith finds himself at more than one prosecutorial crossroads as he weighs how to move forward on former President Trump’s Jan. 6 case in the wake of the Supreme Court’s immunity decision. Smith last week asked to extend deadlines in the case to late August, a shift for a prosecutor who previously pushed for a schedule that would bring the case to trial before the election. The Supreme Court’s immunity ruling earlier this summer dealt a tough hand for Smith by determining that former presidents like Trump retain broad protection from criminal prosecution for actions they take while in office. It’s left Smith at a juncture where he may choose to narrow his case, push for a hearing that would walk through much of the evidence against Trump, or even expand the indictment by charging Trump’s co-conspirators. Barbara McQuade, a former U.S. attorney, said prosecutors often “choose the path of least resistance” in the interest of moving a case along. But with Trump’s team aggressively fighting the charges and thwarting Smith’s plans for a preelection trial, he may be reconsidering that approach, including eyeing the six co-conspirators who went unindicted alongside Trump. “Initially, Jack Smith did not name them, I am guessing, because he was hoping to streamline the case against Trump and get it done quickly, because it was Trump who’s the threat to democracy,” McQuade said, noting the group includes campaign and legal advisers Rudy Giuliani, John Eastman, Jeff Clark, Sidney Powell, Kenneth Chesebro and Boris Epshteyn. “But in light of the fact that there will be no trial [before the election], maybe he’s decided, ‘You know what, the time’s come, I’m just going to charge the other defendants.’” Smith acknowledged the ruling in asking for the delay granted by Judge Tanya Chutkan, saying his team “continues to assess the new precedent set forth last month in the Supreme Court’s decision.” It’s a process they noted requires consultation with other parts of the Justice Department. Joyce Vance, a former U.S. attorney, argued it is not worth rushing that work for Smith. “You could go fast alone or far together,” she wrote on social platform X. “The opportunity to have some of the smartest lawyers in the country pushing back against decisions, making contrary arguments, and testing conclusions means that the Special Counsel will come out on the other side with positions that are that much stronger.” Prosecutors have a lot to tease out of the court’s 43-page ruling. The Supreme Court determined former presidents are immune from prosecution for actions they take in office that are part of their core executive functions, and that they are presumptively immune for all other official acts. It’s a dynamic that barred any charges relating to Trump’s pressure campaign at the Justice Department and also called into question whether his conversations with then-Vice President Mike Pence were also off the table. But another wrinkle Smith’s team must consider is an aspect of the ruling that also limits using evidence related to official acts from supporting other charges. “They need to make a number of decisions. They have to decide what evidence do they have left potentially within the scope of the immunity ruling,” said Kimberly Wehle, a former federal prosecutor turned constitutional law professor at the University of Baltimore. “Each of the four counts [brought against Trump] is going to have its own elements that they have to prove beyond reasonable doubt, and they’ll have to assess whether the evidence that’s now off the table somehow collapses any of those counts so they can’t go forward,” she said. “Then they’ll have to say, ‘OK, we’ll take the stuff off the table that we’re not allowed to use for sure under the court’s ruling.’ And then there’s the wiggle room stuff, there’s the stuff that is in the middle. ‘What’s absolutely crucial that we have to have in order to move forward?’” McQuade also stressed that prosecutors will have to be strategic, weighing both what will survive at the district court level before Chutkan as well as at the Supreme Court, where the case will likely return given any Trump appeals. “My guess is that’s the part that they’re really struggling with,” she said of the ruling’s remarks around what can serve as evidence. “What you don’t want to do as a prosecutor is win the battle and lose the war. So you put up this great case, and you get all this evidence in, and there’s a conviction, and then ultimately it gets overturned because the [Supreme] Court says, ‘Oh, you know that one piece of evidence that you used about that statement Trump made? That was an official act.” Those complications could also push Smith’s team to seek to narrow their case, not expand it, perhaps dropping some of the charges against Trump, particularly any resting heavily on the former president’s plans to replace his Justice Department leadership with those willing to investigate his baseless claims of election fraud. And some eager to see Trump tried for his role in Jan. 6 have also pushed for a so-called minitrial to review all the evidence prosecutors have collected on Trump. While live witness testimony might bolster any ruling from Chutkan as to what evidence and charges can be permitted in the case, the issue could also be handled with legal briefs. Choosing to indict the co-conspirators would also take more time, requiring prosecutors to again present the case to the grand jury before bringing the new charges. There could be some benefit to prosecutors on that front. “Because they’re not immune from prosecution, maybe those trials can go more quickly,” McQuade said, “and then you can flip them and get them to cooperate.” Whatever Smith’s plans, they likely won’t become clear before Aug. 30, the date Chutkan agreed to in extending deadlines in the case. A status conference is set to follow Sept. 5. While Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch said during arguments that the court would aim to write “a rule for the ages,” prosecutors will also be mulling how their arguments and future legal tangles with Trump might be weighed in the future. “They’re not just in it to win it. When you’re at the Justice Department, the goal really is to get it right. And so now they have to really look at what the Supreme Court has said and do their best to conform to that,” McQuade said. Wehle said the fact that the opinion doesn’t make clear what presidential conduct is purely private — and therefore prosecutable — adds another layer of unknowns the Justice Department must consider. “The fact that there’s nothing that’s unofficial, I mean, that’s really troubling to me, because it leaves the court with a lot of discretion in another case,” Wehle said. It’s something that gives them flexibility, she said, to determine what “the Constitution means in the next case that gets to them when it comes to the scope of the president’s power to commit crimes.” In contrast to past moves to speed consideration of the case, Smith did not push the Supreme Court to accelerate the 32-day window under which the case would be returned to the lower courts. “Someone might say, ‘They’ve had it for 39 days. C’mon, work hard.’ But I think when you have to coordinate with all of these different agencies, especially looking at each piece of evidence, not just the allegations, but the evidence to prove it, it may require additional work,” McQuade said. “So it strikes me as a bigger task than probably meets the eye.”
Lawmakers press Meta over illicit drug advertising concerns -A bipartisan group of lawmakers penned a letter Thursday to Meta expressing “deep concerns” over reports that it has continued to promote Illicit drug advertisements on its platforms — including on Instagram, Facebook, Messenger and WhatsApp. The letter — led by Reps. Tim Walberg (R-Mich.), Gus Bilirakis (R-Fla.), Kathy Castor (D-Fla.), andLori Trahan (D-Mass.) — comes after the Wall Street Journal first reported in March 2024 that Meta was under investigation for “facilitating the sale of illicit drugs.” “Instead of quickly addressing the issue and fully removing the illicit content,” the lawmakers wrote, the Journal reported on July 31 that Meta again was “running ads on Facebook and Instagram that steer users to online marketplaces for illegal drugs.”The Tech Transparency Project recently reported that it found more than 450 advertisements on those platforms that sell pharmaceuticals and other drugs in the last several months.“Meta appears to have continued to shirk its social responsibility and defy its own community guidelines. Protecting users online, especially children and teenagers, is one of our top priorities,” the lawmakers wrote in their letter, which was signed by 19 lawmakers.“We are continuously concerned that Meta is not up to the task and this dereliction of duty needs to be addressed,” they continued.Meta uses artificial intelligence to moderate content, but the Journal reported that the company’s tools have not managed to detect the drug advertisements that bypass the system.The Journal found an example of an advertisement from last month that said, “Place your orders,” along with a photo of yellow powder arranged to form the letters “DMT,” which is a psychedelic drug.The lawmakers said it was “particularly egregious” that the advertisements were “approved and monetized by Meta.”“Many of these ads contained blatant references to illegal drugs in their titles, descriptions, photos, and advertiser account names, which were easily found by the researchers and journalists at the Wall Street Journal and Tech Transparency Project using Meta’s Ad Library,” the lawmakers wrote. “However, they appear to have passed undetected or been ignored by Meta’s own internal processes.”A Meta spokesperson referred The Hill to a statement it provided to the Journal last month. The spokesperson said the company works with law enforcement to combat the activity.
Crypto-friendly Democrats support Kamala Harris, seek industry reset --Crypto-friendly Democrats offered their full-throated support for Vice President Harris on Wednesday night while also encouraging the campaign to seek a “reset” with the industry amid frustrations with the Biden administration. More than a dozen Democratic lawmakers and candidates, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), spoke at the Crypto4Harris town hall. They were joined on the fundraising call by industry leaders, such as billionaire investor Mark Cuban and Sheila Warren, CEO of the Crypto Council for Innovation. “There’s great enthusiasm for the Harris-Walz ticket from every corner of our country,” Schumer said Wednesday. “You can feel it, you can see it, you can smell it. It’s gotten Democrats and Americans as a whole who are worried about the advent of Donald Trump so excited.” “Why are we here today? Because we all support Vice President Kamala Harris to be our next president, and we all believe in the future of crypto,” said the Senate majority leader, who also announced his goal to pass crypto legislation by the end of the year. Since President Biden stepped aside and endorsed Harris, crypto advocates have been hopeful the vice president will shift course on digital assets. The Biden administration has had a rocky relationship with the industry, which has often expressed frustrations with Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler’s approach to enforcement. However, the White House has made overtures to the industry recently, with several senior officials joining a call last week with about a dozen crypto leaders. The Harris campaign has also engaged in talks with the industry as it gets off the ground, boosting hopes of a crypto “reset” — an idea underscored by several speakers at Wednesday’s town hall. “Today’s conversation marks the beginning of a reset for the Harris campaign and more broadly a reset on U.S. leadership when it comes to digital assets and crypto,”
Crypto Tumbles As 'Harris/Biden' Admin Moves Another 10,000 'Silk Road' Bitcoin To Coinbase --Bitcoin prices fell this morning in reaction to the lackluster CPI (as rate-cut expectations dipped). That selloff broke through $60,000 and accelerated further as headlines broke that the US government moved 10,000 seized Bitcoin from the Silk Road dark web marketplace to a Coinbase wallet Wednesday.According to the onchain analytics firm, Arkham Intelligence, the funds were seized during the Silk Road raid and are currently valued at $593.91 million.It's not immediately clear whether the United States plans to sell or custody the assets.The transaction follows a previous move of approximately $2 billion worth of Silk Road Bitcoin in late July.As a reminder, the price action (dowwward) in various cryptocurrencies is front-running expectations of the creditors getting their hands back on these assets and selling them......the only problem with that argument is, as we detailed here, the creditors are not selling, they're HODLing...“Now, seeing the continued growth and acceptance of their industry, many Mt. Gox creditors may have become even stronger believers in Bitcoin and its future potential, choosing to hodl further.”
Schumer hopes to pass crypto bill by the end of the year — Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said at a virtual campaign event that he believes the Senate could pass crypto legislation before the end of the year. "Passing legislation this year is absolutely possible, even in these divided times," he said. The event, known as "Crypto4Harris," also featured billionaire Mark Cuban and other lawmakers including Sens. Kristen Gillibrand, D-N.Y., and Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., along with Reps. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and Wiley Nickel, D-N.C. "Crypto is here to stay no matter what," Schumer said. "So Congress must get it right."The call for crypto legislation comes as the industry spends heavily in the 2024 presidential campaign. The Biden administration has been seen as mostly unfriendly toward crypto, although Harris herself has yet to make her positions clear. Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has aggressively courted the crypto industry.Schumer did not indicate which crypto bill he would champion in the Senate, although Stabenow does have a bipartisan bill in the works in her role leading the Senate Agriculture Committee. Some Democrats' shift to support crypto-friendly legislation has been occurring over the last congressional session. More than 70 House Democrats, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., broke with party leadership to pass a bill through the chamber that would set up a regulatory regime for cryptocurrency. Other lawmakers in the Senate, including Schumer, also bucked the party line in voting to overturn SAB 121, the Securities and Exchange Commission guidance that effectively undercut banks' ability to custody crypto assets.
Trump once said crypto was a scam. Disclosures show he now owns more than $1M of it. -During his time in office, then-President Donald Trump made it clear that he was "not a fan" of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. After leaving the White House, he even labeled them a "scam."But the former president's latest financial disclosure documents, released Thursday, show that he now owns at least $1 million in cryptocurrency, specifically between $1 million and $5 million in Ethereum.While the sum itself isn't notable given Trump's net worth, the development still marks a significant shift in Trump's stance toward crypto since his time in office.In 2019, while still president, Trump warned in a series of social media poststhat unregulated crypto assets could facilitate "unlawful" behavior like drug trafficking."I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air," he wrote at the time.Trump then added: "We have only one real currency in the USA," referring to the US dollar.In 2021, Trump reiterated his skepticism, telling Fox Business that bitcoin "just seems like a scam."And in another interview that year, Trump told Fox Business that investing in cryptocurrencies was like a "disaster waiting to happen."He said he did not invest in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and argued that they should be heavily regulated because they undermine "the importance of the dollar."However, Trump's position appears to have evolved dramatically in recent months.According to CNBC, Trump met with about a dozen bitcoin mining executives and experts at Mar-a-Lago in June. Those attending described his input as curious and collaborative, per CNBC.Hours later, Trump posted on Truth Social: "Bitcoin mining may be our last line of defense against a CBDC. Biden's hatred of Bitcoin only helps China, Russia, and the Radical Communist Left."CBDC refers to a central bank digital currency, which would be a digital coin issued by the Federal Reserve.Last month, Trump also headlined a bitcoin conference in Nashville, where he pledged to make the US the "crypto capital of the planet and the Bitcoin superpower of the world" if reelected.And this year, Trump's campaign has started accepting cryptocurrency donations.Trump's campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign does not accept crypto donations, but it has engaged with representatives from the industry, per Forbes.Trump's recent financial disclosure also shows that he made money from endorsing a Bible. It shows that he earned $300,000 in royalty payments for "The Greenwood Bible," which has "signature edition" copies, including Trump's signature, that sell for $1,000 a copy.
'Fraud is pervasive throughout the entire industry': Crypto insider - American Banker (podcast with transcript) - Welcome to the American Banker Podcast. I'm Penny Crosman. Many people in the U.S. banking industry suspect that there's a lot of fraud in the crypto industry, but other than Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX, there have been relatively few public cases of crypto-related fraud. But according to Jake Donoghue, a former crypto founder who recently published a book about his time in the industry, "Crypto Confidential," crypto fraud is rampant. He's here with us to tell us some of his story and what he has learned. Welcome, Jake…
Half of crypto ads on Facebook are scams or violate Meta’s policies, consumer regulator alleges -More than half of cryptocurrency-related ads on Facebook analysed by Australia’s consumer regulator were scams or violated Meta’s policies, a court has heard.The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) took Meta to court over celebrity scam ads in 2022, alleging the company had engaged in false, misleading or deceptive conduct in publishing the ads, and aiding and abetting the false conduct by the advertisers.In a ruling issued last week, it was revealed the ACCC has alleged that, since at least January 2018, “Meta has been aware that a significant proportion of cryptocurrency advertisements on the Facebook platform have used misleading or deceptive promotional practices”.The court heard a preliminary analysis of cryptocurrency ads by the ACCC revealed that 58% of the ads and landing pages for those ads reviewed violated Meta’s “advertising policies or, potentially, involved scams”.Public figures falsely used in the ads to promote the scams include David Koch,Dick Smith, Mike Baird, Andrew Forrest, Waleed Aly, Celeste Barber, Chris Hemsworth, Justin Hemmes, Harry Triguboff, Travers Beynon, Karl Stefanovic, Mark Ferguson, Mel Gibson, Mike Amor, Nicole Kidman, Mike Cannon‑Brookes, Scott Pape, Eddie McGuire, Daniel Ricciardo, Chris Brown, Liam Hemsworth, Anthony Pratt, Frank Lowy, Russell Crowe and James Packer.Celebrities falsely used in the Facebook ads to promote cryptocurrency scams included Waleed Aly, Celeste Barber, Karl Stefanovic and David Koch. The ACCC said it may find further names after the discovery process in the case. Initially it identified 600 ads as part of the claim but is now focused on 234 ads.The regulator has alleged that, while Meta stops the individual ads and pages once complaints are received, and sometimes bans all associated accounts, the company has continued to show and earn revenue from similar ads featuring the same celebrity or other public figures.Meta has failed to adopt reasonable safeguards to prevent or significantly reduce the prevalence of the ads, the ACCC alleges, and Meta “has had the technical ability, or could have developed technology – which could place a warning on advertisements to the effect that users should exercise care as advertisements on the Facebook platform have falsely suggested that the public figure concerned endorses a money-making scheme or a trading scheme – but has not given such warnings.” A Meta spokesperson said scams are a complex threat that target, deceive and manipulate across industries. “Scammers use every platform available to them and constantly adapt to evade enforcement. Meta doesn’t want scams on its platforms and we will continue to work tirelessly to prevent them and protect our users.”In response to questions from members of parliament on the social media inquiry last month, Meta outlined that in addition to suspending and deleting accounts, pages and ads, it has also taken legal action against bad actors violating the company’s terms. It said between January 2023 and January 2024, it had taken action against hundreds of thousands of accounts targeting countries including Australia.Scamwatch reports that so far in 2024 there have been reported losses of more than $13m as a result of investment scams promoted on social media, compared with $134m in reported losses to scams overall.
Illinois lawyer gets 25-year sentence for scheme that toppled Chicago bank -- An ex-lawyer in Illinois has been sentenced to 25 years in prison for his role in a scheme that brought down a bank in Chicago. Robert M. Kowalski, 62, was convicted of embezzlement, bankruptcy fraud and tax fraud for actions taken to swindle tens of millions of dollars from Washington Federal Bank for Savings, which was shuttered by federal regulators nearly seven years ago.Kowalski was one of 16 individuals charged in the scheme, which saw at least $66 million of bank funds transferred out of the bank under the guise of loans. Regulators discovered the fraud — which bank executives had been concealing with falsified records — in the fall of 2017 and forced the bank to recognize the losses. The bank became insolvent and was shuttered by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on December 15, 2017. Most of the fake loans issued by the bank went to Kowalski along with two real estate developers, according to a press release from the U.S. Department of Justice. The scheme was perpetrated with the assistance of the bank's chief financial officer, treasurer and other high-ranking employees.Kowalski and others obtained loans with insufficient documentation or sometimes no documentation at all, according to federal prosecutors. Meanwhile, a bank official had been falsifying payment information for these loans, according to a post-failure report from the U.S. Treasury's Office of the Inspector General, or OIG. Ultimately, examiners determined that the fraud was "on a magnitude that jeopardized Washington Federal's safety and soundness."
Fed hits worker-owned bank with enforcement action -- The Federal Reserve has issued an enforcement action against a small, worker-owned bank in Minnesota. The Heritage Bancshares Group Inc. Employee Ownership Stock Plan and Trust, the holding company for Spicer, Minnesota-based Heritage Bank, entered into a written agreement with the Fed last week. The $590 million bank promised to make improvements to its cash flow, capital management and overall compliance practices, according to a public enforcement letter published Thursday. Heritage must also get written approval from its supervisors before paying dividends, repurchasing stock or otherwise making capital distributions. Heritage has been under scrutiny from bank regulators for months. In April, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — the bank's primary regulator — issued a cease-and-desist order against the bank, citing unsafe and unsound practices related to "capital adequacy, capital and strategic planning, credit review, ongoing monitoring of the credit portfolio, liquidity and liquidity management practices, and the allowance methodology."In their public enforcement letters, the Fed and the OCC did not disclose specific violations or shortcomings at the banks, which is standard practice for such announcements.Heritage offers a "jumbo deposit" product targeting customers that maintain balances of $100,000. This includes a 4.25% annual percentage yield on balances of $2 million or more. It also promotes Federal Deposit Insurance on holdings of up to $7 million, going beyond the government's $250,000 guarantee with supplemental coverage through the IntraFi Cash Service. The bank also offers traditional checking and savings accounts, mortgages, business loans and agriculture loans. Shortly after the OCC issued its consent order against Heritage on April 2, the bank announced the sale of one of its branch locations to Sioux Falls, South Dakota-based Levo Credit Union. That deal was announced on April 18. The branch, located in Sioux City, Iowa, was Heritage's last remaining location in the Hawkeye State. At one point, the bank had 10 branches in northwest Iowa. It now has just four branches in rural central Minnesota and one location in Sioux Falls.
Judge strikes down Missouri anti-ESG investment rules, SIFMA wins lawsuit -- A federal judge Wednesday struck down a pair of year-old Missouri investment rules that regulated "non-financial" investment advice from broker-dealers and investment advisors. Judge Stephen Bough of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Missouri issued the order the day after hearing oral arguments from both parties, which had submitted dueling summary judgment motions. He ordered a statewide permanent injunction prohibiting the implementation, application, or enforcement of the rules. Missouri Secretary of State John R. Ashcroft enacted the regulation after lawmakers failed to pass a bill with the same goals. SIFMA's complaint named Ashcroft and Missouri's Securities Commissioner Douglas Jacoby as defendants.A spokesperson for Ashcroft's office said Bough's ruling was "not just legally deficient but also morally wrong."The two rules require broker-dealers and investment advisors to disclose and obtain written consent from customers to buy or sell an investment product based on environmental, social or other non-financial objectives. The annual disclosure requirement includes language that says incorporating ESG considerations "will result" in investments and advice "that are not solely focused on maximizing a financial return for the client." Client consent in the form of a signature is required every three years.
Congressional Democrats seek NAIC update on climate risk in insurance -- Three congressional Democrats on Monday requested an update from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) on the progress of incorporating climate-related risks into the industry. In 2023, the Treasury Department’s Federal Insurance Office (FIO) issued 20 recommendations for the NAIC, including weighing changes in Risk-Based Capital formulas for climate disasters such as floods and hurricanes. The FIO also recommended developing a national standard for materiality — a circumstance that would affect an insurers’ assessment of whether a policy is worth the risk — for climate-related risks. In the Monday letter, Senate Budget Committee Chair Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), House Financial Services Committee ranking member Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) and Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) asked NAIC President Andrew Mais for further information on the organization’s progress by Aug. 26. The members noted increasing numbers of private insurers have left climate change-affected states like Louisiana, California and Florida, forcing state-owned “insurers of last resort” to expand their services to cover the losses, which itself could disrupt the mortgage and real estate markets. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has also testified before Congress that climbing insurance costs have contributed to ongoing inflationary pressure. “The insurance crisis is also compounding our nation’s worsening housing crisis. For example, a coalition of 24 private, for-profit and non-profit housing developers wrote to Congress and President Biden to express their concern that insurance market volatility is threatening the availability and affordability of housing markets nationally,” the members wrote. “In fact, some nonprofit affordable housing developers have experienced 300-450% insurance cost increases that have completely halted development projects.” Casten, also a member of the Financial Services Committee, previously questioned Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in July on gaps in NAIC data on climate risk due to lack of participation from nine states on an NAIC/FIO joint data call. The NAIC referred The Hill to a statement saying it received the letter on Monday and was reviewing it. “The NAIC and its members have had a Climate and Resiliency (EX) Task Force for several years and were among the first financial regulators to adopt climate risk-related disclosures, reflect catastrophe risks in our risk-based capital system, gather data, and develop a comprehensive plan for resilience,” it said. “NAIC members have built out regulatory tools and guidance across these and other areas to ensure the state-based regulatory system has comprehensive insights into the impact of climate risk and extreme weather on insurance markets across the country.”
LPL, Raymond James, Ameriprise and more hit with over $390M in SEC off-channel fines --The long arm of the SEC stretched deeper into the independent advisory and brokerage industries this week with more than $390 million in fines against 26 firms for violations related to "off channel" communications.The Securities and Exchange Commission announced Wednesday that it had reached a $392.75 million settlement with some of the biggest players in the advisory and brokerage world over their alleged failures to track and maintain business-related messages often sent on encrypted services such as WhatsApp. The firms in the regulatory sweep include well-known names like Ameriprise, Edward Jones, LPL Financial, Raymond James, BNY Pershing and RBC Capital Markets. The largest penalty amount for an individual firm was $50 million, charged to Ameriprise, Edward Jones, LPL and Raymond James. The smallest, $400,000, went to Haitong International Securities, an investment bank based in Hong Kong.Separately, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, which regulates U.S. derivatives markets, announced it had reached an $85 million settlement over similar allegations with three firms also named in the SEC's sweep: TD Bank, Cowan and Company and Truist Bank.
Bankers give more to Biden-Harris than Trump in president race — Bankers have contributed more to the Biden-Harris presidential campaign than to President Trump's re-election bid but are giving more to Republicans than Democrats overall this election season, according to an analysis of political spending data.Just as in the 2020 campaign, bankers are giving more heavily to the former Biden campaign — money that is now controlled by Vice President Kamala Harris — than the Trump campaign. Harris has been the recipient of roughly $1 million from commercial bankers, while Trump has received about $682,000, according to Federal Election Commission data compiled by OpenSecrets. Those numbers are likely to change as the race goes on. The Securities and Exchange Commission's "pay-to-play" rule could prohibit or chill bankers from donating directly to the Harris campaign. Her selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her vice presidential running mate could make bankers ineligible to contribute to the Harris campaign if they work for a bank that does any kind of business in the state because, as governor, Walz is the ex officio chair of the Minnesota State Board of Investment.
Bank groups challenge Illinois swipe fee law -Several banking and credit union trade groups are challenging Illinois' new swipe fee law in court, saying the changes override federal regulations. "This Court's intervention is urgently needed to prevent Illinois from infringing on the federally guaranteed powers of national banks, federal savings associations and federal credit unions," the groups said in the lawsuit filed Thursday. "Without injunctive relief, this scheme threatens not only to impose substantial and unrecoverable costs and risks on these entities and other participants in the payment system, but also create chaos throughout the state's economy." Illinois' budget became a flashpoint for bankers earlier this year after it included a provisionbarring the collection of interchange fees on a number of transactions, including taxes and tips. It was part of a larger compromise with retailers, who are getting a separate tax exemption eliminated in the state budget bill, and is designed to pass off the cost of that elimination to banks and payment processors rather than consumers. The retailer trade group said that it disagrees with the characterization of the lawsuit. "Credit card companies already adjust their charges to merchants after a transaction takes place if it's to increase the amount they take," said Doug Kantor from the Merchants Payments Coalition executive committee in a statement. "The banks' objection to the Illinois law isn't that it's hard to do, it's that the money would go in the opposite direction. And states certainly have the power to protect their tax collectors, like retailers, from being penalized for doing their jobs for the state. Banks can't use the 'preemption' excuse to undermine state tax collections. The court should summarily reject this case." But bankers and card companies said that this would create an unworkable situation for them, as the current infrastructure for card purchases doesn't isolate an interchange fee on just the taxes or tip of a purchase. The budget bill is set to go into effect on July 1, 2025.
White House, CFPB take on 'ineffective, time-wasting chatbots' --On Monday, the Biden administration announced a government-wide initiative it calls "Time Is Money" that targets the ways that corporations waste consumers' time and money, such as forcing consumers through complicated processes to cancel paid memberships."Companies often deliberately design their business processes to be time-consuming or otherwise burdensome for consumers, in order to deter them from getting a rebate or refund they are due or canceling a subscription or membership they no longer want — all with the goal of maximizing profits," the administration said.Two of these efforts could directly impact financial services companies if the rules mentioned in the White House announcement come to fruition. For one, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is planning to issue rules or guidance cracking down on ineffective chatbots used by financial institutions as a replacement for customer service, according to the Biden administration. The agency will identify when the use of these features are unlawful, including in situations where customers believe they are speaking to a human."While chatbots can be useful for answering basic questions, they often have limited ability to solve more complex problems and disputes," the White House said. "Instead, chatbots frequently provide inaccurate information and give the runaround to customers seeking a real person."This effort follows a report the CFPB released last year that outlined concerns from consumers who have lodged complaints about chatbots. It highlighted the potential of these assistive functions to "cause considerable harm" when they feed consumers inaccurate information or delay them from speaking to a live agent. There are documented cases outside of banking that illustrate these dangers. A civil resolution tribunal ordered Air Canada to pay a customer a bereavement discount earlier this year after its chatbot told him he could apply for the fare retroactively. The airline later told him he must submit the request before the flight. Financial institutions are also gradually exploring use cases for conversational capabilitiesdriven by generative artificial intelligence. Still, financial institutions are much more likely to restrict generative AI to internal use cases.The Time Is Money effort also addresses customer service "doom loops," or extensive menu options and recordings that hinder a consumer from reaching a real person. The CFPB is one agency on the White House's list to address this issue. The announcement said the CFPB would initiate a rulemaking process that would require companies under its jurisdiction to connect customers with humans by pressing one button.
Civil rights groups allege judge-shopping in CRA lawsuit — A coalition of civil rights groups condemned the practice of "judge-shopping" in a high-stakes case brought by banking and business groups against new anti-redlining rules by federal regulators. The referenced case, filed in the Northern District of Texas, targets recent updates to the implementing rules of the Community Reinvestment Act, a class of regulatory rules aimed to combat discrimination in housing and ensure financial institutions invest in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods."Judge-shopping adversely affects the public's interests by creating the appearance of unfairness in the eyes of interested parties," the brief asserts, warning that it "undermines public confidence in the impartiality of judicial proceedings."The brief was submitted by the National Fair Housing Alliance, the National Urban League, the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation, UnidosUS and the Raza Development Fund.A coalition of industry trade groups — including the ABA, Independent Community Bankers of America, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Texas Bankers Association and Independent Bankers Association of Texas — filed a lawsuit in February in the Northern District of Texas attempting to stop recently finalized reforms to implementing regulations for the CRA. The amicus brief argues that the plaintiffs deliberately intended to have the case heard by a sympathetic judge when they filed their lawsuit in the Amarillo Division of the Northern District of Texas. In this case, the issue is being heard by Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk, whose jurisdiction has a history of issuing rulings favorable to industry groups and against federal regulations, including those designed to protect marginalized communities.The brief calls for vacating a preliminary injunction granted by the District Court in March, arguing plaintiffs chose the venue for the purpose of intentionally delaying the rule's enforcement. They urge the Court of Appeals to reverse the injunction and either transfer the case to a more appropriate jurisdiction — such as Washington, D.C., where the nationwide trade groups leading the lawsuit are headquartered.The Northern District of Texas, particularly in Amarillo, doesn't assign cases randomly. Instead, the district itself, under the authority of its chief judge, determines how cases are assigned, often directing them to a single judge rather than distributing them randomly. "Judge-shopping is only possible in a few judicial divisions where all cases are assigned to one judge; most judicial districts and divisions randomly assign judges to cases, for important reasons," the brief noted. "Random assignment of judges to cases is 'essential to maintaining public confidence in the impartiality of judicial proceedings.'" The Northern District of Texas is a familiar venue for banking plaintiffs to challenge banking rules, and plaintiffs have been accused of judge shopping before. Earlier this year, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau filed a motion to move a legal challenge to the agency's final credit card late-fee rule from Texas to Washington, D.C., arguing that plaintiffs in that case had only a thin tether to Texas while most of the plaintiffs and the defendants are headquartered in Washington. The judge assigned to the case agreed, ordering the case to be moved to Washington, only to have the 5th Circuit reverse the decision and move the case back to the Texas district court. The CRA lawsuit argues that the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency arbitrarily exceeded their statutory authority when they finalized their amendments to the CRA rules in October. The rule is the first such reform to the implementation rules of the 1977 anti-redlining law since the 1990s. Since then, a federal judge in Texas issued a preliminary injunction against enforcing new rules pending the outcome of the case. The plaintiffs argue that the final rules unnecessarily heighten the complexity and compliance burden of the CRA, ultimately undermining its very intent — to compel banks to serve the needs of the lower-income communities they serve. Other consumer advocacy and financial industry entities have opposed the lawsuit as well. In another amicus brief filed in the ABA case, Beneficial State Bank — joined by the National Fair Housing Alliance, National Urban League, National Coalition on Black Civic Participation, UnidosUS and the Raza Development Fund — said bank industry opposition to the rule does not represent the industry as a whole, much of which is interested in promoting community lending.
CFPB cracks down on 'scam' contract-for-deed home purchase deals -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is cracking down on contract-for-deed home financing deals by requiring that sellers disclose financing costs, assess a borrower's ability to repay and abide by consumer protections to ensure buyers do not forfeit their homes.The CFPB on Tuesday issued an advisory opinion and held a field hearing in St. Paul, Minnesota,where sellers of contracts for deed financing have targeted the Somali Muslim community. The private contracts often are marketed as a way for borrowers to abide by the principles of their faith that prohibit paying for or profiting from interest. Contracts for deed — also called "land contracts," "installment land contracts" or "bonds for deed" — are structured to allow a seller to retain the legal title of land until the buyer completes all the payments. Under such contracts, the seller is the source of financing and the borrower typically has the responsibility for repairs, property taxes and tax liens before actually owning the home. Because the contracts are made outside the mainstream mortgage system, borrowers typically have no legal protections and sellers can cancel a contract and evict the borrower after a missed payment — meanwhile pocketing all prior payments and starting over again with another buyer. "These contracts are marketed as interest-free alternatives to traditional mortgage home loans and often target Muslim immigrants who, because of the tenants of their faith, look for alternatives to paying interest on a traditional mortgage," CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said at the hearing. "But in too many cases, these contracts are a scam and provide none of the traditional protections that mortgage lending offers."
CFPB and New York challenge Acima, seek to redefine 'credit' in lease-to-own --The latest battle over what counts as credit is playing out in two cases against lease-to-own company Acima, which offers plans through retailers selling furniture, tires and other consumer goods.Acima's website states that its purchase options are "not a loan or a credit card," but the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and New York's attorney general are arguing the opposite in separate court cases.The lawsuits are another sign of scrutiny among federal and some state officials over lease-to-own contracts, though their efforts haven't come without setbacks. The CFPB recently lost a case against Snap Finance, in which the agency argued the contracts were effectively loans. The two Acima lawsuits aim to persuade judges to expand the definition of a credit product so that lease-to-own contracts would be subject to the same consumer protections as loans, said Vincent Caintic, who covers consumer finance companies at BTIG Research & Strategy. Those protections include caps on interest rates in many states.If judges do agree that Acima's products are loans, it could put them under the authority of the CFPB, which oversees credit transactions and disclosures.State attorneys general have clear purview over Acima's products, but calling them loans rather than lease-to-own transactions could trigger requirements that states have for consumer lenders.New York state's attorney general, Letitia James, stated in a lawsuit filed Wednesday that Acima "behaves like a lender" and thus should be subject to the state's cap on interest rates for consumer loans. Acima's transactions are "not true rent-to-own" transactions, James said, since returning purchased items is difficult if not impossible. Since the contracts "are in fact loans under New York law," they should be subject to the 16% usury cap that the state has on loans, the lawsuit said. Instead, the company routinely charges annual interest rates above 100%, the lawsuit said. “Acima took advantage of thousands of consumers who were simply trying to shop for basic goods, like mattresses, eyeglasses, and appliances," James said in a news release. "Thousands of New Yorkers were overcharged by Acima and fooled by Acima's deceptive lending practices." Acima, which is owned by the publicly traded Upbound Group, is disputing James' lawsuit and said it was "suddenly and inexplicably filed" after months of cooperating with her investigation. In a news release Wednesday, the company called the suit an "attempt to recharacterize well-established lease-to-own transactions as lending transactions."
BankThink: The conventional wisdom on mortgage quality is wrong | American Banker -- A common refrain is that we need not worry about a housing downturn because mortgage credit is asserted to be "strong," presumably due to the Dodd-Frank Act. Such a conclusion could not be more dangerously wrong. This conventional wisdom relies on misreading bothmortgage market trends as well as a misunderstanding of the post-2008 regulatory framework. The first data point commentators focus on is borrower credit quality. According to the Urban Institute, the most recent data from Spring 2024 shows that the average FICO score for newly originated mortgages was 734. This figure is consistent with what we've observed over the last decade. Since the average FICO going into 2008 was closer to 700, this change is presented as evidence of a much stronger mortgage borrower. But does it really prove such? Recall under COVID debt relief, reporting for many types of loan delinquencies was paused. Households received significant direct financial support during the pandemic. The result was a significant upward shift in credit scores. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found, on average, an improvement of 11 points in consumer FICO scores in the first few months of 2020. The Boston Fed found the largest FICO improvements among those with the lowest scores, with the deepest subprime borrowers witnessing an improvement of almost 20 FICO points.Regulators, and Congress, beginning with the Fast, Accurate Credit Transactions Act of 2003, and the Dodd-Frank Act, imposed changes that have increased credit scores. The most dramatic example has been in the area of medical debt. The CFPB has correctly identified that much medical debt is the result of our convoluted system of medical billings. Regardless, its removal impacts credit scores, with the CFPB estimating its newer treatment of medical debt, including industry changes instituted in March 2022, will increase, on average, consumers' FICO by 25 points.It should be clear that most, if not all, of the supposed improvement in borrower credit quality between now and 2008 is the result not of actual quality improvements, but of regulatory changes to credit reporting. A 740 today simply is not what a 740 was in 2008.Commentators also point to the strength of aggregate household balance sheets. For instance, the Federal Reserve estimates that in the first quarter of 2024, that aggregate owner's equity, as a percentage of real estate owned, was 71%. I would agree, that is a big cushion. But it is not historically unusual. Similar heights were witnessed in the 1950s, 1970s and 1980s prior to painful housing corrections in those decades. Significant homeowner equity did not prevent the savings and loan crisis. More importantly, we don't all share this big pot of equity. The typical homeowner is indeed rock solid. But it's the tails that cause the crises. Total aggregate equity never went negative in the 2008 crisis, yet many families still found themselves under water. The fact is that the tails of the distribution have been getting worse. According to the Urban Institute, the median combined loan-to-value at origination is now 95%, whereas it was closer to 80% going into 2008. And this does not even consider the Biden administration's efforts to inflate appraisals. Perhaps the most reckless trend has been the explosion in high debt-to-income, or DTI, lending. The American Enterprise Institute reports that over a third of recent mortgage originations have DTIs in excess of 45%. Such is all the more concerning with the recent increases in both insurance and property taxes facing borrowers. Despite the Dodd-Frank Act promising to address "ability to pay," borrowers today are stressed at historic levels. Another concerning trend is the substantial increase in investor home purchases. According to Realtor.com, the investor share of home purchases hit 14.8% percent in 2024, the highest on record. This is almost triple the share going into 2008. While much of these purchases are made in cash, the simple truth is that investors are far more willing to walk away from a depreciating asset than are homeowners. If the housing market significantly weakens, investors will be the first to exit. (by Mark Calabria, the Cato Institute)
Kamala Harris housing plan: Construction of 3M units, down payment support -Vice President Harris is set to announce a plan to lower housing costs and end the housing shortage through the construction of new units and down payment support to first-time homebuyers, according to Harris-Walz campaign officials. Harris’s “urgent and comprehensive four-year plan” will call for constructing 3 million new housing units, a tax incentive for homebuilders to construct “starter homes” to sell to first-time homebuyers and a $40 billion innovation fund for local governments to build housing. The plan would also include $25,000 in down payment support for first-time homeowners. Home renters who paid their rent on time for two years and are buying their first home would be eligible for the down payment assistance. Additionally, the plan includes expanding rental assistance for eligible Americans, including veterans, by enforcing “fair housing laws.” She will call for legislation to crack down on companies contributing to surging rent prices and legislation to remove tax benefits for major investors who acquire large numbers of single-family rental homes. “[Former President] Trump likes to talk about being a builder, but when he was President, he simply never got it done,” Harris-Walz campaign officials said in a statement. “New home construction slowed down while Trump was in office — tightening the housing crunch and enabling his wealthy friends to profit. More housing units have been under construction every month of the Biden-Harris Administration than during any month of Trump’s presidency.” Harris is set to announce Friday her plans to lower costs at her rally in North Carolina. As part of her proposal, she will also call for a federal ban on corporate price gouging in an effort to lower the cost of groceries.
Harris takes aim at Wall Street housing ownership in first economic speech — Vice President Kamala Harris promoted policies that aim to make housing more affordable Friday afternoon, while also introducing a slate of proposals that support what she dubbed the "opportunity economy." "Together, we will build what I call an opportunity economy — an economy where everyone can compete and have a real chance to succeed," she said. "Everyone, regardless of who they are or where they start, has an opportunity to build wealth for themselves and their children, and where we remove the barriers to opportunity." Harris' remarks in North Carolina complemented a flurry of policy planks released ahead of the speech, which together represent the clearest outline of her views on the economy since replacing President Joe Biden as the presidential candidate for the Democratic party nearly a month ago. Overall, the policies deepen many initiatives already put forward by the Biden administration, including a focus on antitrust and pro-labor positions. The economic policies spanned a range of markets, from a "first ever" ban on price gouging for food, a cap on prescription drug prices and a child tax credit that would give $6,000 per child for families with newborns. She also introduced a populist-centric raft of ideas around housing, including a $25,000 subsidy for first-time home buyers. In her remarks, she referenced her history as attorney general in California, and the work she did there following the 2008 financial crisis. "As state attorney general, I drafted and helped pass a homeowner bill of rights, one of the first in America," she said. "And during the foreclosure crisis, I took on the big banks for predatory lending with many of my colleagues, including [North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper] and won $20 billion for California families when I was attorney general."She also took aim at Wall Street companies that buy single-family homes to market as rental properties. "Some corporate landlords, some of them buy dozens, if not hundreds, of houses and apartments, then they turn them around and rent them out at extremely high prices," she said. "And it can make it impossible, then, for regular people to be able to buy, or even rent a home." She also called on Congress to pass the Stop Predatory Investing Act, a bill introduced by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and other Democratic lawmakers. The bill would prevent an investor who acquires 50 or more single-family rental homes from deducting interest or depreciation on those properties. Harris also called on Congress to pass the Preventing the Algorithmic Facilitation of Rental Housing Cartels Act, a bill from Sens. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, and Peter Welch, D-Vt., that would make it illegal for rental property owners to use companies that coordinate rental housing prices.
Harris to Target Predatory Wall Street Landlords With Four-Year Housing Plan -Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris on Friday is set to outline a four-year housing plan that would promote the construction of 3 million new housing units, provide substantial down-payment aid to first-time homebuyers, and strip away tax incentives for corporate investors that purchase single-family homes and drive up prices to pad their bottom lines.Harris' proposals to tackle the nation's worsening housing crisis are part of a broader economic agenda that the vice president will lay out in a speech Friday afternoon in North Carolina.Harris, who recently pledged to "take on corporate landlords and cap unfair rent increases," is expected to urge Congress to pass a pair of bills that would crack down on algorithmic price-setting by big landlords and bar corporate investors who buy up 50 or more single-family rental homes from taking advantage of tax breaks, building on President Joe Biden's push for corporate landlords to cap rent hikes.A recent report by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that just 32 institutional investors owned a combined 450,000 single-family homes in the U.S. and the five largest investors owned nearly 300,000 homes. Institutional investors control 25% of the single-family rental housing market in Atlanta, Georgia, according to the GAO.Another major component of Harris' housing plan calls for providing up to $25,000 in down-payment assistance to "working families who have paid their rent on time for two years and are buying their first home."Harris' campaign said the plan would "expand the reach of down-payment assistance, allowing over 4 million first-time buyers over four years to get significant down-payment assistance.""Trump likes to talk about being a builder, but when he was president, he simply never got it done. Now, his Project 2025 agenda will make it more expensive to rent or buy a home," the Harris campaign said Thursday. "Year after year during his presidency, Trump tried to gut rental assistance programs. New home construction slowed while Trump was in office—tightening the housing crunch and enabling his wealthy friends to profit."A recent research brief by Russell Weaver of Cornell University stressed that tenants impacted by the nation's housing affordability crisis are a "large, untapped political base—especially for Democrats and progressives.""Candidates who campaign on housing affordability and tenant protections have the potential to significantly boost renter turnout, which could be decisive in tightly contested races," Weaver said.
Mortgage rates plunge to lowest level in more than a year — US mortgage rates plummeted this week after weaker-than-expected employment data raised the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next month. It’s a big step in the right direction for America’s notoriously unaffordable housing market. The standard 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.47% this week, mortgage financing giant Freddie Mac said Thursday. That’s down substantially from last week’s average of 6.73% and marks the lowest level since May 2023. This week’s drop was the biggest since late December. Mortgage rates have steadily fallen over the past several weeks since reaching a 2024 peak of 7.22% in early May. Rates are down from a two-decade high seen late last year. “The decline in mortgage rates does increase prospective homebuyers’ purchasing power and should begin to pique their interest in making a move,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a release. “Additionally, this drop in rates is already providing some existing homeowners the opportunity to refinance, with the refinance share of market mortgage applications reaching nearly 42 percent, the highest since March 2022.” Home prices are sky-high nationwide and demand for housing still outstrips supply, despite some steady improvements throughout this year. Purchasing a home is out of reach for many buyers, especially those with low incomes living in areas seeing fast price growth, such as New York, San Diego and Las Vegas, according to data from S&P Global. The situation isn’t any better for renters, a recent report from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies showed. But borrowing costs are poised to drop further this year and economists told CNN previously that the worst for the housing market may already be in the rear-view mirror. Mortgage rates track the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield, which moves in anticipation of the Fed’s decision on interest rates. Bond yields dropped precipitously last week after the government’s latest job report showed that unemployment last month rose to its highest level since October 2021. “Homebuyers who were priced out a few months ago should re-check whether they can enter the homebuying market if they have secure jobs,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, said in a note Friday when yields tumbled. The Fed said last week at its monetary policy meeting that it is wary of any risks to the job market. Weaker labor data would allow the Fed to lower interest rates, but the central bank does not want the economy — or the labor market — to drop off a cliff. Wall Street is currently betting that the Fed will cut rates aggressively this year, pricing in a large, half-point rate cut next month when Fed officials convene to set policy, followed by two quarter-point cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The Fed is still watching inflation data closely, waiting for additional evidence that price pressures are coming under control, but any further signs that the job market is deteriorating could nudge the central bank to cut rates more aggressively. The next reading on inflation comes Wednesday, when the Consumer Price Index for July will be released.
Mortgage rates fall despite Fed's tough love approach --Housing advocates and real estate groups spent months arguing that the Federal Reserve had to lower rates to ease the nation's housing woes, but it seems that relief has arrived even without a rate cut.Mortgage rates have been on the decline for months and recently fell to their lowest levels in more than a year, despite the fact that the Fed has kept its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged since last July.Bankers and other lenders attribute this trend to falling yields on 10-year Treasury notes, with which mortgage rates are closely associated. This downward trajectory has been driven by rising unemployment and a rosier outlook on inflation, which was further bolstered today by a better than expected consumer price index, or CPI, report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — overall price growth in the index was 2.9%, just below the 3% forecasted rate.Christopher Maher, CEO of Toms River, New Jersey-based OceanFirst Bank, said that while the Fed's actions are impactful on short-term rates, their influence over longer-term yields — be they government bonds or residential mortgages — is less direct. Because of this, he said, broader economic developments will be more important for lenders than any individual moves the central bank makes in the coming months. "It's not about the meeting or the decision in September. This is about how people are feeling structurally," Maher said. "How close are we to the soft landing?"Despite the repeated calls for interest rate relief from those in and around the housing industry,Fed officials maintained that the best medicine they could offer was a continued focus on reining in inflation. “The housing situation is a complicated one, and you can see that's a place where rates are really having a significant effect," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during his June press conference. "Ultimately, the best thing we can do for the housing market is to bring inflation down so that we can bring rates down, so that the housing market can continue to normalize."
Fannie "Real Estate Owned" inventory Decreased 10% in Q2 2024 - Fannie reported results for Q2 2024. Here is some information on single-family Real Estate Owned (REOs). Fannie Mae reported the number of REOs decreased to 7,179 at the end of Q2 2024, down 10% from 7,971 at the end of the previous quarter, and down 17% year-over-year from Q2 2023. For Fannie, this is down 96% from the 166,787 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010. Here is a graph of Fannie Real Estate Owned (REO). This is well below the normal level of REOs for Fannie, and there will not be a huge wave of foreclosures.
Housing August 12th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.3% Week-over-week, Up 40.5% Year-over-year -Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 40.2% from the February seasonal bottom.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of August 9th, inventory was at 693 thousand (7-day average), compared to 684 thousand the prior week. This is the highest level of inventory since June 2020; however, inventory is still well below pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 40.5% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 39.9%), and down 27.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 28.9%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2024 --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2024 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-August provides a snapshot of the current housing market. I always focus first on inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale! ... Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s July 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were up 3.6% year-over-year in June. New listings are still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com: Sellers continued to list their homes in higher numbers this July as newly listed homes were 3.6% above last year’s levels but substantially less than June’s figure of 6.3%. This marks the ninth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline. Note the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but still below normal levels. There are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now). And there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will around 6.5%. But time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge. That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2024 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2024 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2024 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more. ... Other measures of house prices suggest prices will be up less YoY in the June Case-Shiller index than in the May report. The NAR reported median prices were up 4.1% YoY in June, down from 5.2% YoY in May. ICE reported prices were up 4.1% YoY in June, down from 4.7% YoY in May, and Freddie Mac reported house prices were up 5.2% YoY in June, down from 5.7% YoY in May. Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index. The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. Based on recent monthly data, and the FMHPI, the YoY change in the Case-Shiller index will likely be lower YoY in June compared to May.There is much more in the article.
World’s largest 3D-printed neighborhood nears completion in Texas (Reuters) - As with any desktop 3D printer, the Vulcan printer pipes layer by layer to build an object – except this printer is more than 45 feet (13.7 m) wide, weighs 4.75 tons and prints residential homes. This summer, the robotic printer from ICON is finishing the last few of 100 3D-printed houses in Wolf Ranch, a community in Georgetown, Texas, about 30 miles from Austin. ICON began printing the walls of what it says is the world's largest 3D-printed community in November 2022. Compared to traditional construction, the company says that 3D printing homes is faster, less expensive, requires fewer workers, and minimizes construction material waste. "It brings a lot of efficiency to the trade market," said ICON senior project manager Conner Jenkins. "So, where there were maybe five different crews coming in to build a wall system, we now have one crew and one robot." After concrete powder, water, sand and other additives are mixed together and pumped into the printer, a nozzle squeezes out the concrete mixture like toothpaste onto a brush, building up layer by layer along a pre-programmed path that creates corduroy-effect walls. The single-story three- to four-bedroom homes take about three weeks to finish printing, with the foundation and metal roofs installed traditionally. Jenkins said the concrete walls are designed to be resistant to water, mold, termites and extreme weather.
A "Retail Apocalypse" Is Gaining Momentum All Over America. Is Your Favorite Chain Closing Stores? -- Why are retailers closing thousands of stores if the U.S. economy is in good shape? Of course the truth is that the U.S. economy is not in good shape at all. The cost of living crisis is absolutely crushing working families all over the nation, and U.S. consumers simply don’t have as much discretionary income as they once did. Needless to say, our retailers are highly dependent on discretionary spending, and many of them have been reporting very disappointing sales numbers recently. Sadly, the problems that our retailers are experiencing are only going to intensify as U.S. economic activity continues to slow down.According to CBS News, U.S. retailers have announced the closing of more than 3,000 locations in 2024…The retail industry is going through a tough time as it copes with inflation-weary consumers and a rash of bankruptcies, prompting chains to announce the closures of almost 3,200 brick-and-mortar stores so far in 2024, according to a new analysis.That’s a 24% increase from a year ago, according to a report from retail data provider CoreSight, which tracks store closures and openings across the U.S.The closing of 3,200 stores sounds really bad, but it is important to note that the quote above is from a CBS News story that was published on May 13th.Since that time, there have been a lot more store closing announcements. For example, last week we learned that Big Lots plans to close nearly 300 stores…Two months after announcing plans to close about 40 stores nationwide due to financial woes, Big Lots has indicated on its website it intends to close almost 300 stores.The discount retailer announced in June it was facing several areas of financial strain that would result in 35-40 stores closing across the country. However, an audit of the Big Lots website on Aug. 2 reveals almost 300 stores are slated to close in the United States, including 18 in New England. Meanwhile, a home goods retailer that has been in business since 1890 is preparing to permanently shut down over 170 stores…A home goods retailer is closing all of its more than 170 stores after filing for bankruptcy.Conn’s HomePlus, based in The Woodlands, Texas, operates stores in 15 states, including 11 in Louisiana. The company began in 1890 in Beaumont, TX. The Conn’s HomePlus store on Derek Drive in Lake Charles is included in the closures. Burdorf Interiors has been in business for even longer, but now they have also reached the end of the road… Burdorf Interiors, a 157-year-old local business, is shutting down, according to Louisville Business First.The company announced the closure in a news release Wednesday. Drug store chains have been hit particularly hard by our ongoing retail apocalypse.Rite Aid was once a retail powerhouse that was expanding like crazy, but now they plan to close 780 stores… Rite Aid, which was based in East Pennsboro Township near Camp Hill for decades and is now based in Philadelphia, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in October to begin restructuring to significantly reduce its debt. Since October, the company has announced in bankruptcy filings the closing of 780 stores.Of course Dollar Tree has Rite Aid beat.During the course of the next few years, Dollar Tree plans to close almost 1,000 stores…Dollar Tree on Wednesday said it plans to close nearly 1,000 stores over the next several years, after disclosing significant losses in its latest earnings report.The discount store chain lost $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter, down sharply from earnings of $452.2 million a year ago.Unfortunately, this is just the beginning. Analysts at UBS are projecting that approximately 45,000 stores will be permanently shut down in the U.S. during the years in front of us…About 45,000 retail stores may close in the coming years as retail’s physical footprint increasingly shifts to serve as fulfillment and distribution centers, UBS analysts led by Michael Lasser said in an April 22 report. Can you imagine what this is going to look like? Our landscape is going to be peppered with thousands upon thousands of derelict buildings that have been boarded up to keep criminals out. Of course some of our core urban areas already have lots and lots of empty commercial spaces that used to be thriving retail locations.
BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% in July; Core CPI increased 0.2% -- From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, after declining 0.1 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in July, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the monthly increase in the all items index. The energy index was unchanged over the month, after declining in the two preceding months. The index for food increased 0.2 percent in July, as it did in June. The food away from home index rose 0.2 percent over the month, and the food at home index increased 0.1 percent. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in July, after rising 0.1 percent the preceding month. Indexes which increased in July include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, education, recreation, and personal care. The indexes for used cars and trucks, medical care, airline fares, and apparel were among those that decreased over the month. The all items index rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending July, the smallest 12-month increase since March 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.2 percent over the last 12 months and was the smallest 12-month increase in that index since April 2021. The energy index increased 1.1 percent for the 12 months ending July. The food index increased 2.2 percent over the last year.The change in both CPI and core CPI were close to expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in July --The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in July. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 4.3% (up from 4.2% in June), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2% (down from 3.3%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.3% (unchanged from 3.3%). Core PCE is for July was up 2.6% YoY, unchanged from 2.6% in June.Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details. Fuel oil and other fuels increased at a 25% annual rate in July. Rent and Owner's equivalent rent are still high, and if we exclude rent, median CPI would be around 1.5% month-over-month, annualized.YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter --Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined and is now up 4.6% YoY. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through July 2024. Services were up 4.9% YoY as of July 2024, down from 5.0% YoY in June. Services less rent of shelter was up 4.6% YoY in July, down from 4.8% YoY in June.The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions. Durables were at -4.1% YoY as of July 2024, down from -4.1% YoY in June. Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -1.7% YoY in July, unchanged from -1.7% YoY in June. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through July) and housing from the PCE report (through June) Shelter was up 5.0% year-over-year in July, down from 5.1% in June. Housing (PCE) was up 5.3% YoY in June, down from 5.5% in May. The BLS noted: "The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in July, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the monthly increase in the all items index." This is still catching up with private data. Core CPI ex-shelter was up 1.8% YoY in July, unchanged from 1.8% in June.
Early Look at 2025 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base -- The BLS reported this morning: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 2.9 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 308.501 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). • In 2023, the Q3 average of CPI-W was 301.236. The 2023 Q3 average was the highest Q3 average, so we only have to compare Q3 this year to last year. This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year. The year labeled is for the calculation, and the adjustment is effective for December of that year (received by beneficiaries in January of the following year). CPI-W was up 2.9% year-over-year in July, and although this is early - we need the data for July, August and September - my early guess is COLA will probably be around 2.4% this year, the smallest increase since 1.3% in 2021. The contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index. This is based on a one-year lag. The National Average Wage Index is not available for 2023 yet, although we know wages increased solidly in 2023. If wages increased 5% in 2023, then the contribution base next year will increase to around $177,000 in 2025, from the current $168,600. Remember - this is an early look. What matters is average CPI-W, NSA, for all three months in Q3 (July, August and September).
Services PPI & Core PPI YoY Were Pushed Down by Extreme Base Effect That’ll Flip Next Month for Rest of 2024 by Wolf Richter -- The sharp deceleration on a year-over-year basis of the core Producer Price Index and the services PPI in July was a one-time shot, caused by the services PPI of July 2023 (+9.9%), the highest month-to-month reading in over two years, to fall out of the 12-month figure and be replaced by July 2024 (-1.9%), lowest month-to-month reading since March 2023. It won’t repeat the rest of the year because all the remaining month-to-month figures that will fall out of the average over the next five months were low to negative. And the base effect that was such a tailwind in July will flip to a headwind in August and going forward. And in terms of the month-to-month figures (the blue lines in the charts below), well they’re whiplash volatile. On a month-to-month basis, the Producer Price Index for final demand, which tracks inflation in the goods and services that companies buy and ultimately try to pass on to their customers, decelerated in July from June, on a plunge into the negative by the services PPI, after the hot readings in prior months. The PPI for finished core goods, which exclude food and energy products, accelerated month to month but remains well-behaved. Services PPI fell by 1.9% annualized in July from June, seasonally adjusted, after the jumps of 5.2% in June, 4.7% in May, and 7.1% in April, according to data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today (blue in the chart below). The 6-month average decelerated to 3.4% annualized in July, after having risen at a red-hot pace of 4.9% in June, the highest since August 2022 (red). The six-month rate irons out some of the whiplash volatility of the month-to-month readings and includes all revisions. It decelerated so sharply because the 7.1% January reading fell out of the average and was replaced by the negative 1.9% July reading. Year-over-year, the services PPI rose by 2.6% in July, a sharp deceleration from the 3.5% increase in June. The extreme base effect: The year-over-year reading fell so sharply because the freak month-to-month spike of +9.9% annualized in July 2023 (the highest in over two years) was replaced by the drop of -1.9% annualized in July 2024 (the lowest since March 2023). Going forward, the low-to-negative month-to-month readings last year in August through December will come out of the 12-month base and be replaced by the readings going forward, and the tailwind of the base effect in July will flip to a headwind starting in August. “Finished core goods” PPI is still well-behaved but accelerated in July from June, rising by 1.6% annualized, up from 0.8% in June. As we have seen all around, there have been no major inflation pressures building up in core goods in over a year. Inflation has been largely wrung out of core goods. The six-month rate decelerated to 2.3% annualized from 2.7%, as the month-to-month 4.0% jump in January fell out of the average and was replaced by the 1.6% increase in July. The PPI for “finished core goods” includes finished goods that companies buy except foods and energy. Prices have continued to rise, but a pace that’s in the normal pre-pandemic range. Year-over-year, the finished core goods PPI has been around 2.2% all year with a minuscule down-trend that gets lost in rounding – all of them the lowest since March 2021. In July, finished core goods PPI rose by 2.16%: “Core” PPI fell by 0.6% annualized in July from June, seasonally adjusted (blue in the chart below), driven by the drop in services (-1.9%), which dominate core PPI, and muffled somewhat by the acceleration in finished core goods (+1.6%). The -0.6% annualized reading in July comes after the 4.1% increases in June and May, and the 6.1% increase in April. The 6-month rate decelerated to 3.1% in July, from 4.2% in June, which had been the highest since September 2022. After being well-behaved much of 2023 near 2%, the 6-month rate re-took off in February (red). Year-over-year, core PPI rose by 2.6% annualized in July, a sharp deceleration from June, driven by the base effect in services, as we noted above. June (+3.0%) had been the worst reading since April 2023. For the rest of the year, the readings this year will replaced the low to negative month-to-month readings from August through December 2023, and the tailwind of the big base effect in July becomes a headwind starting in August.
Ford and Mazda issue do-not-drive warnings for 457,000 vehicles with Takata airbags - Ford and Mazda have issued do-not-drive warnings covering more than 457,000 vehicles that contain recalled Takata airbags. According to a release posted on the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's website, Ford’s warning covers 374,290 model year 2004-2014 vehicles comprising a range of models that were part of previous recall campaigns. It also includes Lincoln and Mercury vehicles.Mazda’s warning covers 82,893 previously recalled model year 2003-2015 vehicles.NHTSA urges owners of the vehicles to not drive them until a repair is completed and the defective airbag is replaced. Ford customers should check the automaker's recalls website to see if their vehicle is affected.Mazda customers can visit the company's recalls website for more information.To date, NHTSA says 27 people in the U.S. have been killed by a defective Takata airbag that exploded, while at least 400 people in the U.S. reportedly have been injured by them.
Summer Teen Employment -Here is a look at the change in teen employment over time.
The graph below shows the employment-population ratio for teens (16 to 19 years old) since 1948.
The graph is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), to show the seasonal hiring of teenagers during the summer.
A few observations:
1) Although teen employment has recovered some since the great recession, overall teen employment had been trending down. This is probably because more people are staying in school (a long term positive for the economy).
2) Teen employment was significantly impacted in 2020 by the pandemic.
3) A smaller percentage of teenagers are obtaining summer employment. The seasonal spikes are smaller than in previous decades.
The teen employment-population ratio was 37.9% in July 2024, down from 38.0% in July 2023. The teen participation rate was 43.6% in July 2024, up from 43.1% the previous July. This has pushed the teen unemployment rate (NSA) up to 13.2% from 12.0% in July 2023.So, a smaller percentage of teenagers are joining the labor force during the summer as compared to previous years. This could be because of fewer employment opportunities, or because teenagers are pursuing other activities during the summer.The decline in teenager participation is one of the reasons the overall participation rate has declined (of course, the retiring baby boomers is the main reason the overall participation rate has declined over the last 20+ years).
Grand jury indicts Ohio officer who shot and killed pregnant woman in 2023A grand jury indicted Ohio police officer Connor Grubb, 29, Monday for the murder of 21-year-old Ta’Kiya Young last year. Young was six months pregnant when she was shot by Grubb on August 24, 2023, in Blendon Township, a suburb of Columbus, Ohio. Both Young and her future child were declared dead shortly after the shooting at Mount Carmel St. Ann’s Hospital in Westerville, Ohio. She left behind two sons, one six and one three years old. Grubb, who pleaded not guilty, will face four counts of murder, four counts of felonious assault and two counts of involuntary manslaughter. The charges are split between the deaths of Young and her future daughter. Grubb’s indictment is incredibly rare. According to Mapping Police Violence, there have been 366 police killings in Ohio since 2013 when systematic record keeping of police violence began. Of these, only 11 involve any charges being brought against an officer and just two have resulted in a conviction for an officer, not including Young’s killing.The fact that Grubb was charged at all is a reflection of the brutality with which the pregnant Young was gunned down in public. In an effort to temper mass outrage over the killing, prosecutors dragged out a decision on charges against Grubb by almost a year to head off the resumption of protests that erupted after her death last year. Body camera footage demonstrates clearly that Young was the victim of a brutal police killing in a manner akin to a police state execution. The footage shows two officers in the parking lot of a Kroger grocery store, assisting a person who had locked their keys inside their car. A Kroger employee can be heard accusing Young of shoplifting alcohol from the store. One of the officers approached Young’s car, which she had just gotten into, and began banging on her driver-side window repeatedly demanding that she exit the vehicle without justifying why. This officer has yet to be named on the argument from police officials that he is the victim of assault by Young. Blendon Township Police Chief John Belford vehemently supported the two officers after the shooting, falsely claiming that Young had attempted to use her vehicle as a weapon against the officers. Belford claimed that Grubb was a “victim of attempted vehicular assault” and that the other officer was a victim of “misdemeanor assault” because his arm was allegedly caught in the car window as it slowly rolled away. Young rolled down her window partially to ask the officer why she was being ordered to exit the vehicle, only after which the officer informed her that she had been accused of shoplifting. Young denied the accusations as Grubb positioned himself in front of the car, which was running but not moving. This is a common tactic by officers to justify the use of violence, allowing them to claim they were in danger if a car begins to move. Young put her hands on the steering wheel and turned it far to the right, indicating she was attempting to go around Grubb, who pulled out his pistol even though there was no indication that Young had a weapon or was a threat to either officer. The other officer used a window breaker to hit Young’s driver-side window as she is heard asking “Are you going to shoot me?” Young’s car then moved slowly forward towards Grubb, who fired a single shot through the windshield into Young’s heart. Her car continued to roll as the officers yelled at her to get out of the vehicle before it crashed into a wall. The footage shows the officers then broke her window to open the door to render aid and that she was slumped over the steering wheel. What is clear in the video is that the officers were belligerent and prepared to use deadly force on Young if she did not comply with their demands. Young was clearly afraid for her life after the second officer attempted to break through her window and Grubb pulled a gun on her. The incredibly slow speed of the vehicle posed no danger to Grubb’s life, who utilized lethal force over an accusation of petty theft, a crime carrying up to six months in jail.
Chicago Teachers Union uses “public bargaining” charade as cover for austerity contract -- With only two weeks left before the start of class, educators in Chicago Public Schools face the prospect of starting the school year under an expired contract. The last deal expired at the end of June. According to a report in Chalkbeat, talks are expected to go on for weeks or even months, possibly going past the November elections. But this is not because the talks are highly contentious. In fact, the Chicago Teachers Union and new Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, an ex-CTU official, speak regularly about their mutual admiration. Rather, the “talks” are being dragged out in order to conceal from teachers the fact that massive cuts are on the agenda. The city has a $500 million budget deficit to close, while districts across the country are imposing similar cuts since the White House allowed pandemic-era education funding to expire. The CTU has spent years imposing concessions on teachers, including the closure of dozens of schools and forcing the reopening of classes in the height of the pandemic. Behind the union’s phrase mongering about fighting for a “a baseline of a joyful, robust education for every student” and endless discussion of its 730 contract proposals, there can be no doubt that a deal, at the least the basic framework of one, is already in place. The challenge that remains for the union bureaucracy and the Johnson administration is how to create the political conditions to ram it through. In particular, they are aiming to avoid a situation where rank-and-file opposition upends the Democratic Party’s election campaign, starting with the Democratic National Convention next week. Tens of thousands of antiwar protesters are expected to come to the city, with Johnson threatening mass arrests as he has done to earlier protests. One element in their strategy is the “public bargaining” between CTU and CPS. These occasional meetings are designed to create the appearance of transparency, while concealing what is really being discussed in the closed-door sessions. Similar methods were used by the Teamsters—with its “strike ready campaign” and “rank-and-file bargaining team members”—to pass a contract at UPS last year, which is now being used to lay off tens of thousands. A July 30 “public bargaining session” at Mason Elementary School was a typical example. At one point, CTU president Stacy Davis Gates asked CPS if they could tentatively agree on lowering class sizes to 22 for elementary schools and 20 for high schools. CPS bargainers chided Davis Gates, reminding her this is a topic that will not be decided in public: “As you know, we have already talked about and planned for when we’re doing counter-proposals to the proposals, and we’re going to be doing that at future sessions.” When CTU vice president Jackson Potter asked CPS to commit to filling teacher vacancies, the district reminded him: “You know we have ground rules on this. We did commit to not having tentative agreements today, so that was the commitment we made before we came here.” Potter then asks, “Can you commit to this tomorrow?” CPS answers, “We actually have a session tomorrow.” That is, a private session, the proceedings of which have not been reported on by CTU. During another part of the session, the two parties skirted around the question of budget cuts, careful not to address the question directly. Davis Gates asked if CPS could assure that they will ameliorate staffing disparities in the district. A CPS negotiator responded, “So I think what you’re getting at is whether, going forward, we’re not gonna move forward with impact, people being reduced [laid-off]. You’re asking for commitment that that won’t ever happen … I think any given year we need to have the flexibility to look at the student needs and the operational needs and the budgetary—we have to live within those realities.” CPS then moved off this line of questioning by declaring, “We can continue these conversations [but] in the interest of time…” Recent communications from the union have attempted to place the blame for the stalled negotiations on top CPS leadership itself, saying it is “wedded to the cadence of the past.” A union blog post from August 9 stated, “Last week, we heard the same things in our public bargaining session that we did in big bargaining: excuses, misunderstandings about basic concerns that our union has raised with the district for many years, and a dearth of knowledge about our profession and the things our students need and deserve.” In fact, the CTU and the Johnson administration are effectively in coalition with each other, with Johnson even appointing the union’s chief of staff Jen Johnson to the post of Deputy Mayor of Education, Youth, and Human Services. The CPS board and CEO are also all mayoral appointees. The fact is that cuts were being prepared even before Johnson took office. When he was a candidate, Johnson declared: “There will be some tough decisions to be made when I am mayor of the city of Chicago. And there might be a point within negotiations that the Chicago Teachers Union quest and fight for more resources—we might not be able to do it. Who is better able to deliver bad news to a friend than a friend?”
More book banning in Utah and Iowa - Two recent developments highlight the far-right’s determination to ensure that artistic works that supposedly discuss sexual topics—but in reality may describe any socially critical sentiment whatever—stay out of the hands of students in the American K-12 public school system. On August 2 a federal appeals court lifted a temporary injunction against an Iowa law that will ban over 3,000 books from K-12 curricula and school libraries because they depict sexual matters, with the exception of religious texts. Senate File 496 was originally signed into law in December by Republican Governor Kim Reynolds and thousands of books were immediately removed from schools and school libraries. After the law was challenged on First Amendment grounds by civil rights and gay advocacy organizations, as well as a number of authors, Judge Stephen Locher of the District Court for the Southern District of Iowa issued the injunction, noting that the law was too vague and would cast a “puritanical ‘pall of orthodoxy’ over school libraries.” With the new ruling, however, Iowa will now resume removing titles which include The Color Purple by Alice Walker, The Handmaid’s Tale by Margaret Atwood, the graphic novel about the Holocaust, Maus, by Art Spiegelman, George Orwell’s 1984, To Kill a Mockingbird by Harper Lee, Invisible Man by Ralph Ellison, and the DVD of Steven Spielberg’s Schindler’s List. It would be hard to argue that any of these books are being banned for their prurience. The same day in Utah, the State Board of Education released a list of 13 books that are banned statewide from K-12 schools under the provisions of the H.B. 29 law signed into law by Republican Governor Spencer Cox in March, which stipulates that it is “protecting children from the harmful effects of illicit pornography over other considerations.” According to the law, if three school districts or two school districts and five charter schools ban a book, it must be banned statewide. Books banned in Utah include Oryx and Crake and The Handmaid’s Tale by Margaret Atwood, Sarah J. Maas’s A Court of Thornes and Roses and its sequels, Forever by Judy Blum and the Rupi Kapur poem, “Milk.” Books removed from school libraries in Utah cannot be sold or distributed, they must be destroyed. These bans resemble nothing so much as the religious ruling (fatwah) issue by the Iranian clerical regime in 1989 against Salman Rushdie’s novel, The Satanic Verses, a ruling for which the author was partly blinded last year. The right-wing group Moms for Liberty, which is closely associated with the most fascist elements in the Republican Party, and their supporters in the Iowa state legislature have been instrumental not only in garnering support for the censorship law, but in implementing it as well. The state government itself did not issue a list of books to be removed, but fascist politicians took it upon themselves to send Moms for Liberty material to local school districts, including the group’s notorious screed, the “Book of Books” document. The group is also playing a key role in the Utah book banning. In fact, while the works banned as a group may have—usually very tame—depictions of sex or advocate implicitly or explicitly the rights of gay youth or suggest the flexibility of gender identity or transgress other Christian fundamentalist shibboleths, descriptions of discrimination, oppression or revolt that the far-right is seeking to keep out of young minds are prominent in the censored works. Sarah J. Maas’s popular fantasy novels, also banned in Iowa, have some relatively innocuous sex scenes in them but it would be difficult to believe that the presence of magic and polytheism—and a certain spirit of rebellion against poverty—in the books are not also, or even the main, targets of the religious fundamentalist activists. Rupi Kaur’s Milk and Honey (2014) a collection of fiction and poetry, which has sold over 3 million copies is banned in both Iowa and Utah (and frequently around the United States), has depictions of sexual abuse whose purpose is to document the destructiveness of this kind of behavior and to prevent it. As she noted on her Instagram account, “I remember sitting in my school library in high school, turning to books about sexual assault because I didn’t have anyone else to turn to. This is the reality for many students.” Ralph Ellison’s Invisible Man (1952), banned in Iowa, is hardly known for its sexual scenes but rather for its portrait of the internal scars of racial oppression and the fight against it. It contains passages that are critical—from the left—of groups such as the Stalinist Communist Party. Atwood’s The Handmaid’s Tale (1985), reviled by the Christian right, depicts a world in which women are not allowed to read, and critiques the kind of dystopia that many far-right evangelicals would like to see—where half of the population has no rights at all. The last few months have seen an uptick in the passage of censorship laws in other Republican-dominated states including Idaho, Tennessee, and South Carolina, most of them following the game plan laid down by fascistic Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. The opposition to the Iowa and Utah bans has been loud and sincere from librarians, teachers and parent’s advocacy groups, but they have presented a certain political conundrum because they lean largely on the Democratic Party or Democrat-connected advocacy organizations, among them PEN America, which has played a highly visible role in providing information on the bans and in supporting legal action against them.
Columbia University president resigns in wake of campus protests over Gaza war (Reuters) - Columbia University President Minouche Shafik resigned on Wednesday, nearly four months after the university's handling of campus protests over Israel's war in Gaza drew criticism from pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian sides alike. Shafik, who cited the toll the campus turmoil took on her family, becomes the third president of an Ivy League university to step down in the wake of campus protests over Gaza. She said she made the announcement now so new leadership could be in place before the new term begins on Sept. 3, when student protesters have vowed to resume protests. "It has... been a period of turmoil where it has been difficult to overcome divergent views across our community. This period has taken a considerable toll on my family, as it has for others in our community," Shafik said in a statement. The university announced Katrina Armstrong, dean of Columbia's medical school, would serve as interim president. Armstrong said in a statement she was "acutely aware of the trials the University has faced over the past year." Columbia was rocked in April and May as protesters occupied parts of the New York City campus in opposition to Palestinian civilian deaths in Gaza, resulting in hundreds of arrests. The demonstrators denounced Shafik for calling police onto campus to halt the demonstrations, while pro-Israel supporters castigated her for failing to crack down sufficiently. Students with Columbia University Apartheid Divest, a group behind the protests, welcomed the resignation but said it should not become a distraction from their efforts to have Columbia divest from companies that support Israel's military and its occupation of Palestinian territories. "We hope that Columbia will finally appoint a president that will hear the students and faculty rather than appeasing Congress and donors," said Mahmoud Khalil, one of the group's lead negotiators with the school's administration. Republican U.S. Representative Elise Stefanik, a critic of university leaders in congressional hearings over Gaza protests nationwide, called Shafik's resignation "overdue" on X because of what she called failure to protect Jewish students. Two other Ivy League presidents have resigned after facing congressional critics. Liz Magill of the University of Pennsylvania stepped down in December 2023 and Claudine Gay of Harvard quit a month later. Shafik, an Egyptian-born economist who holds British and U.S. nationality, was previously deputy governor of the Bank of England, president of the London School of Economics and deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund. After leading Columbia for little more than a year, Shafik said she would return to the British House of Lords and chair a review of the government's approach to international development. Her position at Columbia was undermined when pro-Palestinian protesters set up dozens of tents on the main lawn. On April 18 she took the unusual step of asking New York police to enter campus, angering rights groups, students and faculty, after encampments were not cleared voluntarily. More than 100 people were arrested and the tents removed, but within days the encampment was back in place. The university called police back in on April 30, when they arrested 300 people at and near Columbia and the City College of New York. Some protesters were injured in the arrests.
Ron DeSantis pushes UF system to look into Ben Sasse's expenses --Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is pushing his state’s university system to look into former University of Florida (UF) President Ben Sasse’s expenses in the wake of reporting from a student newspaper on the subject. “We take the stewardship of state funds very seriously and have already been in discussions with leadership at the university and with the Board of Governors to look into the matter,” Bryan Griffin, a communications director for DeSantis, said in an emailed statement sent Thursday to The Hill. The Florida Board of Governors “oversees the operation and management of the Florida public university system’s twelve institutions,” according to a webpage on the State University System of Florida’s website.The Independent Florida Alligator, a University of Florida student newspaper, reported earlier this week that Sasse, a former Republican U.S. senator from Nebraska, drove up spending in his office by more than three times while president of the school. According to the Alligator, most of the increase in spending came from contracts with important consulting firms and well-paying roles for former Senate staff of his and Republican officials.Last month, Sasse said he was planning to leave his role as the school’s president by the end of July, noting a health problem in his family. “After extensive prayer and lots of family tears, I today asked UF Chair Mori Hosseini and our Board of Trustees to initiate a search for a new president of the university,” Sasse said in a post on the social platform X. “I need to step back for a time and focus more on the needs of my family while we rebuild more stable household systems.”
Dismissal "with prejudice" of case against Harvard vindicates Professor John Comaroff - The years-long campaign to smear and destroy the career and reputation of distinguished Harvard Professor of Anthropology and African and African American Studies John L. Comaroff collapsed on Wednesday with the dismissal “with prejudice” of the civil suit brought by three graduate students against Harvard University. While the settlement does not compel the plaintiff to cover court and related legal costs, the outcome discredits their campaign and effectively vindicates Professor Comaroff. When a case is settled “with prejudice,” it means that the case is closed permanently, and the plaintiffs are barred from bringing another lawsuit on the same claim. This finality implies that the lawsuit filed by graduate students Margaret G. Czerwienski, Lilia M. Kilburn and Amulya Mandava—who claimed without any facts or evidence that Professor Comaroff had engaged in sexual harassment and sued the university for not acting to remove him—was fundamentally flawed, without merit and cannot be brought up again. The “without costs” aspect simply mitigates the financial burden but does not lessen the negative legal implications of the dismissal with prejudice. The ignominious end of the lawsuit, which should never have been brought in the first place, deals another major blow to the #MeToo campaign of recent years. Since 2017, this campaign, hostile to essential provisions of legal due process, has destroyed the careers of individuals based on unsubstantiated allegations and innuendo. Responding to the failure of the slander campaign against Comaroff, the law firm representing the three graduate students, Sanford Heisler Sharp, flippantly declared in a statement on Wednesday, “We are glad that our clients will now be able to move on with their lives and careers.” In other words, having created havoc with their vindictive and self-promoting witch hunt, they are free to embark on their next adventure. But for Professor Comaroff, a consequence of the smear campaign is that the professor retired from Harvard on June 30 without achieving emeritus status, an honor most tenured Faculty of Arts and Sciences professors receive upon retirement. John Comaroff was born in South Africa and attended University of Cape Town, where he began his studies in anthropology. He spent 34 years teaching, along with his wife Jean Comaroff, at the University of Chicago. The husband and wife joined Harvard in 2012. In May 2020, following a scandalous article published by the Harvard Crimson, the university administration placed Professor Comaroff on paid administrative leave while an investigation into allegations of “unwanted touching, verbal sexual harassment, and professional retaliation” was being conducted. Responding to the accusations, which were submitted by the students to Harvard’s Title IX office, Comaroff wrote in an email that he “denies all allegations of sexual harassment and retaliation,” and said that the Harvard administration actions against him were “prejudicial to the fair determination of any claims” and “a violation of the Harvard University Sexual Harassment Policy and Proc[e]dure’s confidentiality rules.” He was also asked by the Anthropology Department not to teach a course. At the conclusion of the investigation, the university found Comaroff “responsible solely for verbal sexual harassment arising from a brief conversation during an office hour advising session. The advice he gave concerned the student’s physical security in field research.” According to the details of the investigation, Comaroff had attempted to explain to a gay female student that traveling with her partner in Cameroon, where homosexuality is illegal, could lead to sexual violence. His lawyers explained that the professor insisted “that it was not only his right, but his moral duty, to so advise her, because her proposed plans were objectively physically dangerous to her. The investigators found that he had no sexual or romantic intention.” The investigation found that the evidence did not support the accusation of “unwanted sexual contact” and found him “not responsible for any of the other two complainants’ allegations.” Responding to the witch-hunting atmosphere, the university administration launched a second kangaroo court-style investigation that found the professor, “was responsible for alleged unprofessional (but entirely non-sexual) conduct in another office hours advising session.” On January 20, 2022, Faculty of Arts and Sciences Dean Claudine Gay placed Comaroff on unpaid administrative leave. The sanctions against the professor were so outrageous that 38 professors signed a protest defending Comaroff on February 4, 2022, including Shakespeare scholar and cultural historian Stephen Greenblatt, literary critic and historian Henry Louis Gates Jr., historian Jill Lepore and law Professor Randall Kennedy.
Texas women file federal complaint against hospitals for delayed ectopic pregnancy care -- Two women filed federal complaints against Texas hospitals they allege refused to terminate their ectopic pregnancies, which led to both women losing a fallopian tube, compromising their future fertility. Abortion is banned in Texas, but terminating an ectopic pregnancy, where a fertilized egg implants in a fallopian tube instead of the uterus, is explicitly allowed under state law. An ectopic pregnancy is never a viable pregnancy and can be deadly for the pregnant patient if not treated quickly. Both women in the complaints recounted how they nearly died after two separate hospitals turned them away out of fear of violating the state’s anti-abortion law. In Texas, a physician who provides a prohibited abortion faces up to life in prison, loss of medical license, and at least $100,000 in fines. “Thus, some clinicians have been reluctant to provide medical intervention for a suspected or presumed ectopic pregnancy,” the complaints state. “They are doing so out of concern that, if their diagnosis is incorrect, termination would be a prohibited abortion that could result in criminal and civil penalties.” The two complaints were filed by the Center for Reproductive Rights with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. They argue that the hospitals violated the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (EMTALA), a nearly 40-year-old law that requires hospitals receiving federal funds to provide stabilizing care, including abortions, to patients with emergency medical conditions or transfer them. Hospitals must provide the care regardless of patients’ insurance status, mental illness or other underlying issues that a hospital might use to turn them away. Patients for years have needed to file complaints with state health agencies, but the administration earlier this year streamlined the process so patients can file complaints directly to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. The Biden administration invoked EMTALA in the wake of the Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade. The administration said state laws or mandates that employ a more restrictive definition of an emergency medical condition are preempted by the federal statute. That guidance has been challenged by red states, including Texas, that say the administration’s interpretation runs counter to their own laws banning abortion. Even though Texas law explicitly allows doctors to terminate ectopic pregnancies, it doesn’t require it, and doctors remain wary of treating patients with pregnancy complications. “It’s impossible to have the best interest of your patient in mind when you’re staring down a life sentence,” Beth Brinkmann, senior director of U.S. litigation at the Center for Reproductive Rights, said in a statement. “Texas officials have put doctors in an impossible situation. It is clear that these exceptions are a farce, and that these laws are putting countless lives in jeopardy.” The U.S. Supreme Court earlier this year declined to say that Idaho’s abortion ban trumps the EMTALA requirement, but a federal appeals court found that Texas hospitals cannot be required to provide life-saving abortions. The Biden administration has already appealed that ruling to the Supreme Court. The court will likely make a decision about whether to hear arguments in the fall, allowing it to rule after the November election.
Women's life expectancy in US lowest among similar countries --Women in the U.S. can expect to live shorter lives than women in similarly wealthy nations, according to a brief from the Commonwealth Fund, a nonprofit research group focused on health care. In the brief, published Thursday, the Commonwealth Fund used provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to calculate the life expectancy for U.S. women in 2022 at birth which, at 80, is the lowest female life expectancy among similarly high-income countries in areas such as Europe, Asia and Oceania. The life expectancy for American women is two years shorter than that of the country with next lowest female life expectancy — the United Kingdom — and seven years shorter than that in Korea and Japan, which have the highest life-expectancy for women. Life expectancy for Black, American Indian and Alaska Native women in the U.S. is lower compared to that of white, Asian and Hispanic women, according to the provisional CDC data. Asian women in the U.S. have the highest life expectancy, at about 86, Hispanic women can expect to live until about age 83 and White women until age 80, according to the data. Black women have a notably shorter life expectancy, at about 76 and a half years, while Alaska Native and American Indian women have a life expectancy of about 71. “High life expectancy can be attributed to a number of factors, including high living standards, a healthy lifestyle, quality education, access to comprehensive health services, and superior health outcomes,” the brief explains. Women in the U.S. also have one of the lowest rates of regular access to doctors or other health care providers as well as one of the highest rates of emergency room visits and of skipping needed medical care due to cost — all of which contributed to low life expectancy, according to the brief.
Dr. Fauci Admits He's Infected With COVID For Third Time After Being "Vaccinated And Boosted Six Times" - Dr. Anthony Fauci revealed that he’s been infected with COVID for a third time despite having been “vaccinated and boosted six times.” Yes, really.The former chief medical advisor to the president, who became the face of the COVID vaccination drive from late 2020 onwards, reacted to catching COVID-19 yet again by thanking the vaccine. Dr. Fauci has COVID again for the third time and has been vaccinated and boosted six times pic.twitter.com/Gsdz9bDCbP “ I got infected about two weeks ago, it was my third infection, and I have been vaccinated and boosted a total of six times,”said Fauci. Fauci, who back in 2021 said, “If you get vaccinated, you are protected,” seemingly hasn’t been protected from catching the virus despite receiving half a dozen vaccines. He also separately asserted during the same year, “When people get vaccinated, they can feel safe that they are not gonna get infected.”Those comments have aged rather badly. Respondents on X had a field day.
Over 1.3 million Americans are now being infected with COVID-19 each day --On Monday, the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) released its updated model, estimating that over 1.3 million Americans are now being infected with COVID-19 each day as the summer surge deepens. At present, 1 in 38 Americans are infected with COVID-19, as documented extensively in a new report from PMC.The Collaborative, which is run by Michael Hoerger, Ph.D. at Tulane University in New Orleans, just released version 2.0 of its PMC COVID-19 forecasting model. It is one of the most sophisticated models available, designed to inform the public about the current state of the pandemic, while encouraging people to take appropriate precautions to protect themselves.Current levels of transmission exceed those seen during 91 percent of the pandemic to date and are the highest ever seen in mid-August during the entire pandemic. This deepening summer wave is the 9th wave of the pandemic in the US and is taking place amid a complete cover-up by the Biden administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the corporate media, all of whom have conspired to impose the homicidal “forever COVID” policy of unending mass infection, death and debilitation with Long COVID.Graph of year-over-year transmission shows we have likely never had such high COVID transmission in mid-August. The PMC report includes a map of transmission levels by US state, a modified version of a map published by the CDC based on data from the National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS). While the CDC map uses pastel colors to try to portray the deluge of infections as harmless, the PMC report follows best practices in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) design, according to which they note “consensus is to use colors like red to indicate something is ‘hotter’ or greater cause for concern.”The deepening summer surge coincides with the emergence of the new viral variant KP.3.1.1, which has rapidly become dominant since first emerging in early June as a descendent of the KP.3 variant.The confluence of the summer surge and a new viral variant, to which the population has less immunity, is highly dangerous. Combined with the timing of mid-August when children are beginning to return to schools and colleges, it raises the potential for a perfect storm to send viral transmissions even higher in the fall. Commenting on this, the report notes:This is the highest level of transmission at the time of schools starting, so expect K-12 schools and universities to be hotbeds for COVID outbreaks unless they are using multilayered mitigation like indoor air quality that meets ASHRAE standard 241 (if they have never heard of this or cannot explain how they are meeting the standard, they likely are not meeting the standard), surveillance testing, free on-demand testing, and universal masking.In fact, the reopening of schools with zero mitigations in place makes it challenging for the PMC model to predict the peak of the current summer surge. The report notes, “we are likely near the peak of the wave, unless the unprecedented context of back-to-school with no emphasis on mitigation pushes transmission higher in ways the model cannot predict statistically.” Significantly, the PMC model estimates that Americans have now had COVID-19 on average 3.3 times. According to one study, people who self-report having had 3 infections have a 40 percent chance of developing Long COVID. The PMC model estimates 468,000 to 1,870,000 new cases of Long COVID per week at current transmission levels, an astounding level of new disability being created on a weekly basis. This estimate comes on the heels of the latest groundbreaking study led by Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, which estimated that by the end of last year over 400 million people were suffering from Long COVID globally. Because the three sources of data overlapped for parts of the pandemic, it was possible for the Collaborative to build a statistical model that continues to estimate current case and transmission levels from the wastewater surveillance data. The two wastewater data sources are both used in the model, which enables the model to provide much more reliable estimates.
As the new school year opens in the US, SARS-CoV-2 forces abrupt classroom closures -- In the opening days of the 2024-25 school year, at least two schools were forced to shut down due to SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. This is only the tip of the iceberg, as 1.3 million Americans are currently being infected daily, and most US schools have yet to reopen. For instance, in New York, Michigan and many other northern states, districts typically start after Labor Day. On Monday, August 12, Jefferson-Abernathy-Graetz (JAG) High School in Montgomery, Alabama closed, moving to remote learning. Fifteen educators reported COVID-19 infection after last week’s two-day orientation. Officials said they would reassess the situation and possibly reopen the building by Friday, at which point they said masks and disinfectant wipes would be made available to students. The same day as the Alabama closure, Humboldt schools in western Tennessee called off classes at Stigall Primary. Officials informed parents by letter that the school would be closed for “sanitizing” due to an “uptick in COVID.” A later report said an undisclosed number of students and staff tested positive for COVID-19, while others were symptomatic. “Everyone’s like, ‘COVID is back, COVID is back’,” said Jessica Williamson, a parent of a first grader at Stigall. “I just feel like it didn’t really go anywhere,” she told local media. “Those are little kids. They’re the most prone to put things in their mouths, to touch each other, to just share germs,” Willamson said. Why, indeed, is “COVID back”? The response of the Tennessee school to the outbreak provides a partial answer. The district said it was carrying out a “deep clean, disinfecting every surface,” according to Ginger Carver, the communications director for the school district. She added that teachers and staff would follow protocols to keep the classrooms and common areas disinfected. “When students move from class to class, teachers will be wiping down the desks, the desktop surfaces. They’ll be using disinfectants. Basically, the protocols that we were doing back when COVID was full blown,” she said. Humboldt schools reopened on Wednesday. In other words, COVID is returning with the new school year because no action is being taken to combat the main cause of COVID transmission, the aerosolization of the virus. Furthermore, schools are being reopened almost immediately despite high community spread. As scientists have demonstrated and nearly five years of COVID deaths have underscored, the key to fighting COVID is disinfection of the air. Without the use of HEPA filtration in all indoor spaces and other mechanisms, including Far-UV light, schools will dramatically exacerbate the spread of the disease. Despite the use of these methodologies by the ruling elites to protect themselves—at the Davos Economic Summit or at the White House, for instance—no such measures are in place for millions of schoolchildren.
Study shows steep drop in pediatric post-COVID syndrome cases from 2021 to 2023 -- In January 2021, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) tracked as many as 200 cases each week of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), a severe pediatric inflammatory syndrome that follows COVID-19 infection.But the CDC noted only 117 cases of the syndrome in all of 2023, according to a new research letter in JAMA Pediatrics. The authors describe MIS-C hospitalizations identified in the Pediatric Health Information System (PHIS; Children’s Hospital Association) with admission in 2023, compared to cases during peak incidence in 2021.In 2021, the PHIS identified 3,578 MIS-C cases. Patients in 2021 were older than those in 2023 (average age, 9 years) than those in 2021 (average age, 6).More patients had a co-diagnosis of Kawasaki disease (KD) in 2023 (30.3%) than in 2021 (8.5%). KD is a rare syndrome resulting in high fever and inflammation of the blood vessels."Increasing KD codiagnoses may reflect increasing diagnostic uncertainty or clinical overlap in a population of younger patients with evidence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies from prior infection or immunization," the authors wrote.Notably, more MIS-C cases in 2023 were fatal than in 2021. A total of 2.3% MIS-C patients died in 2023, compared with 0.6% in 2021. "We found a higher proportion of deaths among recent hospitalizations, which warrants further investigation," the authors concluded. "MIS-C continues to occur, although rarely, with severe outcomes. Administrative databases, like PHIS, can complement ongoing surveillance for MIS-C and potentially other diseases that are treated in children’s hospitals.”
Socioeconomic disadvantage magnifies COVID-19 effects, slows recovery, data suggest --Recovery from COVID-19 takes longer, and infection has a greater effect on health-related quality of life (HRQoL), among socioeconomically disadvantaged patients, suggests an observational study published in BMC Infectious Diseases. Researchers in Bergamo, Italy, analyzed data and conducted follow-up visits with 825 adult COVID-19 patients a median of 133 days after they were treated at a hospital from February to September 2020. The patients completed questionnaires on their nationality, educational attainment, household size, occupation, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, HRQoL, and fatigue level. Of all patients (median age, 59 years), 60.2% were men, 60.5% were hospitalized, and 3.3% were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU).Studied outcomes included the composite end point (shortness of breath, fatigue, muscle pain, chest pain, heart palpitations), HRQoL (pain and limitations in physical activities), PTSD, and structural lung damage. "Recovery from acute COVID-19 may be slow and incomplete: cases of Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID (PASC) are counted in millions, worldwide," the study authors wrote, noting that no diagnostic biomarker or test is available for PASC.In total, 40.9% of patients reported persistent physical symptoms at follow-up, 31.8% had possible PTSD, and 19.7% had evidence of structural lung damage (indicated by impaired CO2 diffusion). Symptoms included fatigue (30%) and shortness of breath (15.3%). Overall, 5.6% reported a loss of independence, and 50.6% reported fatigue. A multivariable model suggested a link only between socioeconomic disadvantage and lower HRQoL, particularly for limitations on physical activities (odds ratio [OR], 0.65) and pain (OR, 0.57). The finding was independent of age, sex, body mass index, number of chronic conditions, and time to follow-up. Income bracket wasn't tied to physical symptoms; instead, associations included age younger than 60 (46.4%, vs 34.7%), female sex (50.6% in women vs 34.3% in men), and ICU admission (63.0% in those admitted vs 40.1% of those not hospitalized). "Recovery after COVID-19 appears to be independently affected by a pre-existent socio-economic disadvantage, and clinical assessment should incorporate SES [socioeconomic status] and HRQoL measurements, along with symptoms," the researchers wrote. Possible explanations, they said, may include reduced access to healthcare, low-quality healthcare, or behavioral and dietary factors. "For employed individuals, the impossibility of staying off from work for long periods (or the higher physical efforts required by poorer working conditions) could be [a] cause; or, for retired patients, a reduced access to home care and assistance," they wrote.
Study identifies risk groups for severe COVID-19 by patient age - A new study in Open Forum Infectious Diseases analyzed the clinical features of and outcomes of pediatric and adult hospitalized COVID patients at five US sites, and found that teens were at greatest risk for severe disease among all children, and those 50 to 64 years old were at greatest risk among all adults.The study took place from March 2020 to March 2023 and included 1,560 hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Researchers calculated adjusted odds ratios (aORs) of clinical outcomes for children versus adults, younger kids compared to teens (12 to 17 years), and for older adults compared to young adults (22 to 49 years), the authors said.In total the study included 885 patients ages 0 to 21 years and 675 participants ages 22 to 105 years. --Overall, children were less commonly vaccinated compared to adults ages 21 and older (14.3% vs 34.5%), and more commonly infected with the Omicron variant (49.5% vs 26.1%). Children also had fewer comorbidities than adults did.Children had much lower odds of receiving supplemental oxygen (aOR, 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.35 to 0.92) and death (aOR, 0.01; 95% CI, <0.01 to 0.58) compared to adults. However, children had increased adjusted odds of receiving high-flow oxygen (2.18; 95% CI, 1.29 to 3.67) compared to adults, which the authors explained may be because this modality is more commonly used to support ventilation in the pediatric population. "Overall, adolescents 12-17 years experienced the greatest disease severity among the pediatric age strata,"the authors said. "Interestingly, adults aged 50-64 years had the highest odds of requiring mechanical ventilation and ICU admission after adjusting for confounding variables."The authors said their study confirmed prior work that shows that overall children experience less severe COVID-19 disease compared to adults.
Long COVID leads to missed work days, economic loss - About 14% of participants in a new long-COVID study from Yale said they didn't return to work in the months after their infection, suggesting that the condition results in major economic losses. The study is published in PLOS One. The study was based on the outcomes of 6,000 participants at eight study sites in Illinois, Connecticut, Washington, Pennsylvania, Texas, and California from 2020 through 2022 as part of the Innovative Support for Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infections Registry, or INSPIRE study. A total of 2,939 participants who were employed at the time of their infections filled out surveys about health and work status at recruitment and every 3 months after for 18 months. Included in the survey were questions about returning to work after contracting COVID-19 and the number of workdays missed due to COVID-related symptoms. The average age was 40 years, 64.1% were women, 69.5% were White, 61.2% were vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 before the index test, and 3.8% were hospitalized for COVID-19, the authors said. Three months after infection, 1,732 (59.2%) reported no symptoms and 282 (9.6%) reported five or more symptoms.A total of 7.2% of participants missed more than 10 days of work in the 3 months following SARS-CoV-2 infection due to COVID-19 symptoms, and 13.9% did not return to work within that timeframe. The authors found that having five or more long-COVID symptoms 3 months after infection was the factor most related to missing work. At 3 months, participants with five or more symptoms had a higher adjusted odds ratio of missing 10 or more workdays (2.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.81 to 4.83) and not returning to work (2.44; 95% CI, 1.58 to 3.76) than those with no symptoms."This number was important because we’ve shown in previous studies that the number of symptoms someone has after being infected with SARS-CoV-2 may be more indicative of how severe their long COVID is," said lead author Arjun Venkatesh, MD, chair of the department of emergency medicine at Yale School of Medicine, in a press release."We found that having five or more symptoms three months after infection was strongly associated with not returning to work," Venkatesh said. "And when we compare the rates observed in this study to the national population, it could mean as many as 2 million people may be out of work because of post-COVID conditions."
New studies estimate long-COVID rates, identify risk factors | New survey data from the landmark Women's Health Initiative (WHI) reveal that 34% of postmenopausal women infected with COVID-19 had symptoms lasting at least 8 weeks, while a separate 2-year telemedicine study shows that 84% and 61% of all infected patients still had symptoms 1 and 2 years later, respectively. For the WHI study, a Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center–led research team surveyed 37,280 women aged 50 to 79 years at 40 US clinical centers about long-COVID symptoms and their duration from August to December 2021. They used machine learning and logistic regression models to gauge the strength of symptoms' association with long COVID. The results were published today in the Annals of Epidemiology. "Long-term health, psychosocial and demographic data are needed to fully understand long COVID risk factors in the elderly and to design and implement effective prevention," the study authors wrote. Of 37,280 survey respondents, 3.3% reported testing positive for COVID-19 (average age, 84 years), and 34% said they still had neurologic, cardiopulmonary, musculoskeletal symptoms, as well as fatigue and malaise. Nearly all respondents (91%) were White, and no differences between race and long-COVID status were observed. Common symptoms lasting longer than 8 weeks were fatigue (51.8%), general malaise (34.6%), memory problems (34.4%), and brain fog (31.8%). Over 20% of long-COVID patients reported memory problems and fatigue for more than 6 months. Risk factors for long COVID were a weight loss of 10 pounds or more in the previous 2 years, sleep problems, limited physical and mobility, previous heart-valve procedures, and rheumatoid arthritis. Physical-function risk factors for long COVID were a limited ability to bend, kneel, stoop, or grocery shop, as well as the use of a wheelchair, walker, or crutches on level surfaces. Lower odds of long COVID were tied to older age and the use of calcium supplements. "As new variants continue to emerge and infect people, older adults remain highly vulnerable to long-term health effects from this pathogen," the researchers concluded. "Continued multidisciplinary research is needed to understand and prevent long COVID to reduce morbidity and mortality and maintain quality of life in older adults." For the second study, published in PLOS One, a team led by University of Milan researchers in Italy conducted 2-year semi-structured interviews with 165 COVID-19 patients who had been monitored by a telemedicine operations center from February to May 2020. Median patient age was 53 years, 53% were women, 28% had high blood pressure, 9.1% had cardiovascular disease, and 7.9% had diabetes. Of the 165 patients, 84% reported lingering symptoms 1 year after infection, while 61% still had them at 2 years. About half (49%) of participants who had long-COVID symptoms at 2 years had reported them at 1 year, had received the COVID-19 vaccine, and hadn't been reinfected in the interval. Having long COVID at 1 year postinfection and getting reinfected were significant risk factors for persistent symptoms at 2 years. Vaccination wasn't observed to be a protective factor, which the researchers attributed to the small number of unvaccinated participants.
Routine lab tests can't reliably distinguish long COVID from other illnesses, NIH study suggests New data from the National Institutes of Health-funded RECOVER-Adult Cohort study concludes that none of 25 routine clinical lab values can be reliably used to diagnose long COVID, also known as postacute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). The findings, published today in the Annals of Internal Medicine, suggest that clinicians should continue to focus on symptoms and symptom relief rather than relying solely on lab tests, the authors said. "Our challenge is to discover biomarkers that can help us quickly and accurately diagnose long COVID to ensure people struggling with this disease receive the most appropriate care as soon as possible," David Goff, MD, PhD, said in a news release. "Long COVID symptoms can prevent someone from returning to work or school, and may even make everyday tasks a burden, so the ability for rapid diagnosis is key," he added. Goff was not a study author.The team evaluated the standard lab test results, physical exam findings, and interview responses of 10,094 US adults in 33 states; Washington, DC; and Puerto Rico with and without a COVID-19 infection in the past 6 months from October 2021 to October 2023. Nearly 19% of participants were considered to have PASC.Participants, who were seen at 83 enrollment sites of the Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) study, completed surveys every 3 months and provided blood and urine samples at enrollment and at 6, 12, 24, 36, and 48 months postinfection if the previous result was abnormal. Of all participants, 72% were women, 17% were Hispanic, 14% were Black, and 62% were fully vaccinated by the infection date.The 25 lab values assessed were chosen based on site availability and standardized use, published literature, and clinical experience. They were used to compare adults with and without a history of COVID-19 6 months or earlier, those with and without PASC, participants with each of four PASC symptom phenotypes, and those unlikely to have PASC. Of the 10,094 participants, 8,746 (average age, 46 years) had previously tested positive for COVID-19, 1,348 (average age, 52) were uninfected, 1,880 had a PASC index score of 12 or higher, and 3,351 had a score of 0. After propensity-score adjustment, no clinically meaningful phenotypic differences were found in previously infected adults with PASC scores of greater than 12 and those with a 0 score.The authors concluded that clinicians should continue to order routine clinical lab tests to exclude other treatable causes of PASC symptoms, but with the knowledge that the 25 routine tests assessed in the study don't appear useful in defining PASC."Our findings suggest that even highly symptomatic PASC may have no clinically observable objective findings on routine laboratory testing," they wrote. "Understanding the basic biological underpinnings of persistent symptoms after SARS-CoV-2 infection will likely require a rigorous focus on investigations beyond routine clinical laboratory studies (for example, transcriptomics [RNA], proteomics [proteins], metabolomics [metabolites]) to identify novel biomarkers." Lead author Kristin Erlandson, MD, professor of medicine–infectious diseases at the University of Colorado, said the research will continue. "Future work will use RECOVER’s biobank of cohort samples such as blood and spinal fluid, to develop more novel laboratory-based tests that help us better understand the pathophysiology of long COVID," she said in an NHLBI press release. In a related commentary, Annukka Antar, MD, PhD, and Paul Auwaerter, MD, both of Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, called PASC diagnosis a "Herculean task.""Some of the greatest unsolved challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to understanding, diagnosing, and treating long COVID," they wrote.
COVID activity shows signs of slowing in parts of US -COVID-19 activity remains elevated across most of the United States, but some regions of the country are seeing some declines, as the proportion of KP.3.1.1 variant continues to rise, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latest updates.Nationally, wastewater detections of SARS-CoV-2 are at the very high level for the second straight week. The highest levels are still in the West and South, followed by the Midwest and the Northeast. The CDC's latest update, however, shows downward trends from high levels in the South and Midwest. For respiratory virus activity in general, the nation's levels are low, with most illnesses caused by COVID, with flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) levels still low, the CDC said in its latest snapshot. It noted an upward trend for RSV, though.COVID indicators show that the burden is highest in people ages 65 and older and in children younger than 2 years old. The proportion of KP.3.1.1 variant continues to rise, the CDC said in its latest variant proportion estimates. KP.3.1.1, one of many JN.1 offshoots, is thought to more easily evade immunity from earlier infection and vaccination. The variant now makes up 36.8% of sequences, up from 22.8% in the previous 2 weeks.Among the CDC's other metrics, test positivity rose slightly last week and is at 18.1% nationally, but was highest in Texas and surrounding states. Emergency department visits for COVID declined a bit from the previous week, but are still at the moderate level in parts of the South.Hospitalization levels are declining from an early-August peak. Deaths from COVID continue to rise, however, up 18.7% from the previous week.
Aaron Rodgers says he regrets claiming he was 'immunized' to COVID-19 - New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers said in a soon-to-be-released biography that he regrets how he discussed his COVID-19 immunization status in 2021. In August 2021, Rodgers told reporters during a training camp session for the Green Bay Packers — his team at the time — that he had “been immunized” when asked whether he was vaccinated. Rodgers came under fire after he tested positive for COVID-19 three months later and was sidelined for 10 days. “If there’s one thing I wish could have gone different, it’s that, because that’s the only thing [critics] could hit me with,” ESPN reported Rodgers told author Ian O’Connor for the biography, “Out of The Darkness: The Mystery of Aaron Rodgers,” which hits bookshelves next week. Rodgers said in the book his main reason for claiming he was “immunized” was the statement represented “the crux of my appeal,” ESPN reported. The four-time NFL MVP unsuccessfully appealed to the league that his homeopathic treatment regimen should have qualified him as vaccinated but was unsuccessful. He also said at the time he had an allergy to an ingredient in the mRNA vaccines — polyethylene glycol — and had concerns about the Johnson & Johnson vaccines. He reportedly told O’Connor that if he could do it again, he would have said “f‑‑‑ the appeal.” “I’m just going to tell them I’m allergic to PEG, I’m not getting Johnson & Johnson, I’m not going to be vaxxed,'” he said, per ESPN.
The Paris Olympics is the first Games that let COVID run free, and it impacted how the event played out -- Nobody would have failed to be alarmed at seeing Noah Lyles being wheeled from the Stade de France track after the 200m final on Thursday night in Paris. The brashest man in athletics. The fastest man in the world. Cowed by the effects of COVID. This wasn't supposed to happen. After the COVID Games of Tokyo, delayed and contested in silent sterility, followed by the hazmat-suited yet thoroughly successful Beijing 2022 Winter Games, everything was supposed to be back to normal. And, mostly, they are.It was reported that during the men's and women's road races last weekend, about half a million people packed the side of the roads — and there was certainly no social distancing there. Indeed, there have been very few, if any, concessions made to the existence of COVID at these Games — it's barely mentioned anywhere. And yet — COVID was still there, lurking. The first confirmed case — a phrase that probably carries enough trauma on its own — involved the Australian women's water polo team in the days leading up to the Games officially getting underway. The virus proceeded to rip through the Stingers, albeit at arguably just the right time.By the time the Olympic finalists took to the pool for the first time in competition, all athletes that had caught the disease had returned negative PCR tests and were fit and firing.The Aussies seemed to have dodged a bullet. But that's not where it finished.Britain's breaststroke king Adam Peaty was confirmed to have tested positive just 24 hours after he won silver in the 100m on the first Sunday of competition.He returned to the pool for the relays, but told Reuters "it's probably the worst week of my life in terms of how my body is".The following day, a handful of coaches were seen on pool deck wearing masks, some from Team GB, the Netherlands and Germany, and one from Australia.Ella Ramsay was a late withdrawal from the 200m individual medley final.(Getty Images: Adam Pretty)This was simply a response to COVID cases popping up in the village, but despite those precautions, a day later, on Tuesday, July 30, Lani Pallister was forced to withdraw from the 1,500m after being confirmed to have contracted the virus.Later in the meet, Ella Ramsay withdrew from the 200m medley final on account of having COVID, while 200m breaststroke silver medallist Zac Stubblety-Cook only completed a five-day course of antivirals for COVID the day before his final.Even Saya Sakakibara was felled by COVID, admitting that she thought it was all over before the antivirals kicked in and allowed her to win a magnificent and emotional BMX gold.It's not just been COVID though that has caused dramas for the Australian team and others.Rower Josh Hicks had to pull out of the men's eight due to gastroenteritis, while Belgium had to miss the mixed team triathlon relay after Claire Michel withdrew, but not, as most suspected, due to the River Seine.On Tuesday, August 13, AOC (Australian Olympic Committee) team doctor, Caroline Broderick said 85 athletes and officials had been tested for various illnesses. Of those, 44 (31 athletes) returned positive tests, 16 of which were COVID and 15 classified as "other"."Our testing has been the most extensive and accurate of any Games, allowing early and targeted treatments," Dr Broderick said in a statement.
BREAKING! Parts of China witnessing a COVID-19 resurgence driven by a new recombinant Delta and Omicron variant. XDV.1 Thailand Medical News (my attempts to copy this article were blocked)
Shingles may pose a 20% higher risk for long-term confusion, memory loss - An observational study today in Alzheimer's Research & Therapysuggesting that a single episode of shingles is tied to a 20% higher risk of long-term confusion and memory loss further supports receiving the vaccine against the disease. Shingles—also known as herpes zoster (HZ)—is a painful rash caused by the same virus (varicella zoster) that causes chickenpox. After chickenpox infection, the virus remains in the body for life and may reactivate even decades later. Nearly all Americans aged 50 years or older have had chickenpox and are therefore vulnerable to shingles. Researchers from Brigham and Women's Hospital led the study of 149,327 participants in the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS), the NHS II, and the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (HPFS) to assess the link between HZ and subsequent subjective cognitive decline (SCD). Participants were aged 25 to 75 years, and data were collected from 2000 to 2017, depending on the study. The team compared 3-unit–increment changes in SCD scores among shingles patients by years since the shingles episode with those of uninfected participants by analyzing the results of medical records and health-status surveys administered every 2 years. The study authors noted that shingles may contribute to cognitive decline through neuroinflammation, direct neuron injury, or the activation of other herpesviruses but that evidence on the long-term association between HZ and SCD is inconclusive. "Prospective cohort studies on the association between HZ vaccination and cognitive decline are also lacking," they wrote. Relative to participants with no HZ, infected participants showed a 20% greater multivariable-adjusted relative risk (MVRR) of a 3-unit increment in SCD score. Risk according to time since infection (when the elevated risk of SCD was statistically significant), however, varied by group. In NHS participants, HZ was tied to greater long-term odds of SCD; relative to never-infected participants, the MVRR of a 3-unit slide in SCD score was 1.14—representing a 14% higher risk—for those 13 years or more past the shingles episode. In NHS II, HZ was linked to a higher risk of SCD at both 1 to 4 years (MVRR, 1.34) and 13 years or more (MVRR, 1.20) post-shingles. In HPFS, a higher risk of SCD was seen at all time points. Among participants with Alzheimer's disease genetic risk factor (APOE) ε4 data, the association appeared to be higher only in male APOE ε4 carriers. APOE ε4 is the most influential genetic risk factor for Alzheimer's disease. Among women with HZ vaccination data, the long-term risk of SCD seemed higher among those unvaccinated against shingles."Given the growing number of Americans at risk for this painful and often disabling disease and the availability of a very effective vaccine, shingles vaccination could provide a valuable opportunity to reduce the burden of shingles and possibly reduce the burden of subsequent cognitive decline," corresponding author Sharon Curhan, MD, of Brigham and Women's, said in a hospital press release.
Measles vaccine failure linked to very low transmission rates - Measles is far less contagious when spread by someone who has suffered secondary vaccination failure (SVF) compared to an unvaccinated person, according to a new review of 14 studies, including 11 studies. The review was published late last week in Emerging Infectious Diseases."Despite the effectiveness of measles-containing vaccines, infection remains possible in immunized persons," the authors said. "This phenomenon has come to be known as vaccination failure." The authors said primary vaccination failure (PVF) results from a person's failure to produce any humoral response to viral antigen and occurs in about 5% of vaccinees, while secondary vaccination failure (SVF) occurs 6 to 26 years after the last vaccine dose and is a result of waning or incomplete immunity. SVF occurs in 2% to 10% of vaccinated people, the authors said.SVF infections tend to be milder than infections in unvaccinated people, with lower fever, less cough, and overall lower viral loads. However, no universally agreed-upon definition for measles SVF exists.All included studies also reported a very low attack rate (0% to 6.25%) for SVF cases.By 2023, a total of 82 countries had achieved measles elimination through high immunization coverage. Though outbreaks can and do occur in these settings, the authors conclude the study by suggesting that the risk for onward transmission from persons with measles SVF is very low but not zero.
CDC alerts providers about spike in parvovirus B19 activity -- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) yesterday sent an alert to health providers about a rise in parovirus B19 infections in the United States. Though the disease isn't typically included in US surveillance, the CDC said it had received multiple reports of increased activity, including data from commercial labs, serology in the general population, and serology among blood donors. In its Health Alert Network notice, the CDC also said it has receive reports of clusters of parvovirus B19 complications in pregnant women, and people who have sickle cell disease.The group added the European region experienced a rise in cases in the first quarter of 2024. Parvovirus B19 is highly transmissible by respiratory droplets and is known to spread in households as well as trigger school outbreaks. The virus can also spread from pregnant women to their fetuses and can be transmitted through transfusion of blood components and certain plasma derivatives. Also called "fifth disease", hallmarks of the illness include a "slapped cheek" rash in children and joint pain in adults. Most people recover with supportive care, but parvovirus B19 infections can lead to serious complications in certain groups, as well as adverse fetal outcomes.The CDC urged health providers to keep a high index of suspicion in people who present with compatible physical symptoms and lab markers, especially those at higher risk including pregnant women, immunocompromised people, and those with chronic hemolytic blood disorders.
WHO emergency committee meets this week to discuss African mpox spread -The World Health Organization (WHO) has set an August 14 date for a meeting of its emergency committee to discuss developments regarding a surge of mpox activity in Africa and if the situation warrants a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). Some of theoutbreaks in Africa involve the novel clade 1b strain that emerged in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which has been battling a severe outbreak since 2022. Some of the DRC's neighboring countries, which hadn't confirmed any mpox cases before, are now reporting cases. Also, the parent clade 1 virus is spreading in the DRC and two other countries, and the global clade 2 mpox strain is fueling outbreaks in some of the DRC's regions and in other African countries.Health officials are working to better understand the spread patterns and if there are differences in transmissibility and disease severity among the clades. The DRC's outbreak has been marked by sexual spread for the first time in the African region, along with household contact and suspected contributions from respiratory transmission.For now, the countries lack vaccines and treatments to battle the virus.The upcoming emergency committee meeting will be the second to grapple with mpox. In June 2022, the WHO convened an emergency committee to address challenges with the international spread of the clade 2 virus and said the situation didn't at that point warrant a PHEIC. A month later, the group met again and wasn't able to reach a consensus, but WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, considered their advice and declared a PHEIC. After the group met for the fifth time in May 2023 amid a steady decline in clade 2 cases, Tedros accepted the group's recommendation that the situation no longer constituted a PHEIC and that long-term challenges could be best handled with sustained response efforts.
Africa CDC declares public health emergency for mpox --The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) today declared its first public health emergency of continental security (PHECS) amid a complex and worsening mpox situation in Africa, especially a surge in the Democratic Republic of the Congo that partly involves a novel clade 1b virus.The declaration comes ahead of a meeting tomorrow of a World Health Organization (WHO) emergency committee, which will discuss if the situation warrants a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC).At a media briefing on Zoom today, Salim Abdool Karim, MBChB, PhD, a South African virologist and epidemiologist who chaired the Africa CDC mpox expert group discussions yesterday, said members had nine main points to make in its recommendations to the Africa WHO director-general.He said the committee acknowledges that surveillance data are limited, leaving experts with only a partial picture of what's happening on the ground. However, Karim said there's clearly a high burden of illness, with cases already triple the number recorded when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a public health emergency of international concern for mpox in 2022.Case numbers have been accelerating over the past few weeks, and the upward trend is quite concerning, he said. The case-fatality rate—in the 3% to 4% range—is higher than expected and is considered too high, with fatalities concentrated in people with HIV. Karim said experts are concerned about the spread to countries that haven't had mpox before, adding that almost all the spread is human-to-human. He noted that the group's other concerns include the need for better coordination among countries, limited vaccine access with a lack of a clear strategy on who should receive them, and a lack of diagnostic capacity. The group estimates that more than half of all cases are diagnosed just on a clinical basis. The 16-member committee urged Africa CDC to develop a response plan, and its recommendation that the director-general declare a PHECS was unanimous.In accepting the group's recommendations, Africa CDC Director-General Jean Kaseya, MD, MPH, said mpox spread in Africa is "a crisis that demands our collective action." Following Africa CDC's PHECS declaration today, Nicole Lurie, MD, MPH, executive director of emergency preparedness and response with the Center for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), said the development is a wake-up call to the world that urgent action is needed to protect those most at risk and to stop the spread of the virus. "Supporting the Africa CDC’s and Africa Taskforce for mpox coordination’s response to the multi-country outbreak is a priority for CEPI, and we are closely engaged with Africa CDC and WHO," she said in a Science Media Centre statement, noting that although more are studies on the vaccine in specific populations, immunization can't wait. CEPI is working with vaccine companies to find ways to scale up vaccination and is funding studies to assess immunogenicity in children and whether postexposure vaccination could blunt illness severity. Meanwhile, ahead of tomorrow's WHO mpox emergency committee meeting, the agency yesterday released its latest monthly situation update, which covers the clade 1 viruses circulating in Africa and the clade 2 virus circulating globally. Of 934 cases reported in June, more than half were reported in Africa, and, of those, most were reported by the DRC. Given limited lab capacity in rural areas, only 24% of clinically compatible cases have been tested, which underestimates the true disease burden. Separately, Save the Children yesterday warned that newborn babies as young as 2 weeks old are contracting mpox in the DRC due to overcrowding in hospitals. The nonprofit said 70% of the DRC's nearly 15,000 cases involve children, 39% of them kids younger than 5 years old. It added that cases and deaths are more prevalent in children than adults. Children are four times more likely to die from their mpox infections, Save the Children noted.Some healthcare centers in Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, are facing a patient intake 4,000% over capacity. An epidemiologist with the group said Save the Children has been caring for a baby boy for 4 weeks who became infected after he and his mother were forced to share a room with someone who had an undiagnosed mpox infection.
CDC investigation finds viral DNA, but no live virus, in pets of mpox patients -Twelve percent of swabs taken from the fur, mouth, and anorectal area of pets living with an mpox patient tested positive for mpox virus DNA, but blood cultures showed no signs of infection, according to a new US study.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention researchers worked with public health officials in Minnesota, Tennessee, Virginia, and Washington, DC, to collect swabs from 34 pets from 21 households that included at least one infectious mpox patient from July 2022 to March 2023. The pets were swabbed within 21 days of direct contact with the patient and again 3 or 4 months later, if possible. The researchers sampled the fur, abdomen, mouth, anorectal region, and any lesions of 24 dogs, 9 cats, and 1 rabbit. The team also collected swabs from animal beds, toys, and dishes. They also tested and cultured the animals' blood samples and evaluated sera for any orthopoxvirus antibodies (mpox is an orthopoxvirus). Mpox patients were surveyed about the pet, household, and contact with the pet or other animals.The results were published yesterday in Emerging Infectious Diseases.Before the outbreak that began in spring 2022, mpox transmission was primarily zoonotic (from animals to people), with limited human-to-human spread. But after 2022, an mpox variant—clade 2—spread via direct contact among humans, primarily through sexual networks outside of endemic regions, the authors noted."As of July 2024, no cases of mpox infection or mpox disease had been confirmed in common domestic animals, such as dogs and cats, during the current global outbreak or any past outbreaks," they wrote. A total of 22 of 191 (12%) of animal swabs and 14 of 56 (25%) of environmental samples from four households tested positive for mpox DNA, but blood samples from the four dogs and one cat showed no viable mpox or orthopoxvirus antibodies that would indicate previous infection.Of the mpox-positive swabs, 82% from the pets and 93% from the environment suggested DNA contamination from infected humans."Given high likelihood for exposure among most of these animals, the paucity of evidence indicating infection might indicate resistance to infection," the researchers concluded.
Sweden reports first clade 1 mpox case outside of Africa as NIH shares disappointing Tpoxx results -Sweden is the first country outside of Africa to report a case of mpox caused by the novel clade 1, the variant fueling a massive outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighboring nations, while US officials report disappointing DRC trial results for a key drug—Tpoxx, or tecovirimat—against the more lethal strain.Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi and Kenya, are the other African countries with clade 1b detections.According to a press release from the Public Health Agency of Sweden, the case-patient sought medical attention in Stockholm but had recently visited Africa. In 2022 and 2023, Sweden saw an outbreak of clade 2 cases linked primarily to sexual transmission among men who have sex with men, eventually recording about 300 cases.This is the first clade 1 case identified in the country. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said today it will soon update its risk assessment for the clade 1 mpox outbreak in Africa. "This case does not require any additional infection control measures in itself, but we take the outbreak of clade I mpox very seriously," said Magnus Gisslen, MD, PhD, chief epidemiologist at the Public Health Agency of Sweden. "We are closely monitoring the outbreak and we are continuously assessing whether new measures are needed." The announcement of the Swedish case comes a day after the World Health Organization declared the outbreak in Africa a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC).The declaration comes 2 years after the WHO declared the global spread of clade 2 mpox cases a PHEIC, resulting in the widespread use of mpox vaccine in Europe and the United States to curtail the outbreak. Getting vaccine doses to Africa has proven more challenging; at least 10 million vaccine doses are needed for the current outbreaks in Africa, but so far only the DRC and Nigeria have taken the first regulatory steps to allow supplies to be used.Yesterday Tim Nguyen, MPH, who heads the WHO's High Impact Events Preparedness unit, said there are about 500,000 doses of Bavarian Nordic's Jynneos vaccine available, with another 2.4 million doses that could be produced by the end of the year if there are orders. The company said it could produce another 10 million doses in 2025.Several international scientists and public health experts weighed in today on the WHO PHEIC via the Science Media Centre."The situation is concerning because of the spread of the clade 1b virus, which is considered to cause more severe disease, and because there are many children being infected in DRC during this new outbreak," said Brian Ferguson, PhD, an associate professor of immunology at the University of Cambridge, said. "40% of cases are in children under 5 years old." In a news release today, the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) said that, in a new trial, the antiviral drug Tpoxx did not reduce the duration of mpox lesions among children and adults with clade 1 mpox in the DRC, but it was safe. "These findings are disappointing, but they give us essential information and reinforce the need to identify other therapeutic candidates for mpox while we continue research on tecovirimat use in other populations with mpox," said Jeanne Marrazzo, MD, MPH, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which is part of the NIH. "We remain committed to developing safe and effective interventions, including treatments and vaccines, that can ease the devastating mpox burden in Central Africa and address the milder form of the virus that is circulating globally."However, the case-fatality rate seen in the study was 1.7%—much lower than the 3.6% or higher reported in the DRC, which shows the benefit of good hospital care for case-patients. And Tpoxx maker Siga said the drug did provide benefit for those treated early, and those with severe disease (100 or more skin lesions). Early treatment was defined as within 7 days of symptoms."We believe these data warrant further investigation and support our view that post exposure prophylaxis will be vital for treatment of severe cases of mpox and all cases of smallpox," said Dennis Hruby, PhD, Siga’s chief scientific officer in a press release.
Mpox detected in Sweden one day after World Health Organization declares epidemic a Public Health Emergency of International Concern - On Wednesday, World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) as a result of the surging mpox outbreak of the deadlier “clade Ib” viral strain in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and across Africa. The declaration by WHO follows a similar one issued by the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) the previous day, which marked the virus’ spread as a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security. It is the first time the spread of a disease has been categorized as such since the agency was established in 2017. As part of the WHO announcement, Tedros commented, The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its rapid spread in eastern DRC, and the reporting of cases in several neighbouring countries are very worrying. On top of outbreaks of other mpox clades in DRC and other countries in Africa, it’s clear that a coordinated international response is needed to stop these outbreaks and save lives. This year alone, there have been 17,451 cases of mpox in 13 African Union member states, of which 2,822 are confirmed and 14,719 are suspected, which have resulted in 517 deaths, a case fatality rate of 2.95 percent. The total number of cases exceeds the totals for both 2022 and 2023, when mpox previously threatened to spread across the world. In addition to the high number of cases, the location of new cases spurred on the decision to declare a PHEIC. According to the WHO press release: In the past month, over 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of clade 1b have been reported in four countries neighbouring the DRC that have not reported mpox before: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. Experts believe the true number of cases to be higher as a large proportion of clinically compatible cases have not been tested. In addition to the outbreaks in Africa, one case involving the mpox clade I strain was reported in Sweden on Thursday. A statement from the Public Health Agency of Sweden notes, “A person who sought care at Region Stockholm has been diagnosed with mpox caused by the clade I variant.” The statement then attempted to downplay the dangers involved, claiming that, “the fact that a patient with mpox is treated in the country does not affect the risk to the general population,” a risk which it asserts is “very low.” In fact, no such claims can be made. Unlike the mpox clade IIb strain which was largely responsible for cases of mpox in 2022 and 2023 and which spreads primarily through sexual contact, the current strain spreads merely through being in close quarters. While mpox is not generally contagious while a given infected person is not symptomatic, it is still critical to know precisely when they developed the infection to know how many others might have been exposed. Arguably the most critical piece of information, currently unknown to the public, is how the patient traveled from Africa to Sweden. Did they travel via land, air, sea? In what cities did they lay over? How packed were the cars, buses, trains, ships or planes on which they traveled? Given the immense danger the current strain poses to the health of everyone who catches the disease, not performing mass contact tracing and testing for the pathogen is criminally irresponsible at best.
European officials say more imported clade 1 mpox cases likely Following Sweden's announcement yesterday of the first novel clade 1 mpox case outside of Africa, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) today warned that more imported clade 1 infections are highly likely and urged countries to take preparedness steps.The identification of the case in Sweden is part of quickly evolving developments with the virus, which included public health declarations this week from the Africa Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), followed a day later by a similar one from the World Health Organization (WHO).In its statement and risk assessment today, the ECDC recommended that countries with close travel links to Africa issue travel advice for those visiting or returning from affected countries. It said the risk is high for those who have close contact with affected communities and moderate for those who are close contacts of Europeans with suspected or confirmed clade 1 mpox infections.For the general public, it assessed the overall risk from the clade 1 virus as low. The mpox situation in Africa is complex, with different countries battling different versions of the virus. The main hot spot is the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where a novel clade 1 virus emerged in 2023 and is spreading through social networks. Meanwhile, other African countries, such as South Africa, are experiencing spread of the global clade 2 virus.Earlier infections from clade 1 viruses in endemic parts of Africa mainly involved zoonotic spread, with limited human transmission. However, the DRC outbreak saw the region's first sexual spread of clade 1 mpox, and health officials have reported transmission among social networks, such as through sex workers, and among household contacts. Some spread is also thought to be occurring through respiratory droplets.Another alarming aspect of Africa's outbreaks is the spread to countries, such as the DRC's neighbors, that have never reported the disease before.Meanwhile, the United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA) yesterday issued guidance on clade 1 mpox, noting that since it is more severe, the agency classifies it as a high-consequence infectious disease.It urged healthcare providers to be vigilant, including for sexually acquired cases, especially if the clade isn't known and the patient has a history of travel to the DRC or other affected countries or is a contact of a confirmed clade 1 patient within 21 days of symptom onset.UKHSA said all mpox samples, regardless if they are potential clade 1 cases, should be sent to the agency for clade differentiation tests. In vaccine developments, Doctors Without Borders (MSF) today said it strongly supports the WHO's appeal to donors this week to help with a coordinated response to Africa's mpox outbreak and emphasized that the use of existing vaccine is key for reducing future spread. Africa CDC has estimated that at least 10 million doses are needed to slow the spread of the virus, but very few doses are available in the region.MSF urged countries with existing supplies of Bavarian Nordic's MVA-BN vaccine (Jynneos) that aren't experiencing active outbreaks to donate as many doses as possible. It also pressed the company to review its pricing policies and urgently seek partnerships with vaccine manufacturers in Africa.
UK health officials warn of rise in ceftriaxone-resistant gonorrhea -UK health officials are warning of a rise in cases of ceftriaxone-resistant gonorrhea. In a report released yesterday, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said 15 cases of infection with ceftriaxone-resistantNeisseria gonorrhoeae were detected in England from June 2022 to May 2024, including 5 that were extensively drug-resistant (XDR). A total of 31 ceftriaxone-resistant gonorrhea cases, 7 of them XDR, have been reported in England since 2015.Ceftriaxone is the first-line recommended antibiotic for gonorrhea infections in England and most countries. But it's the last remaining effective treatment option for the N gonorrhoeae bacterium, which has developed resistance to every class of antibiotic used to treat it, and ceftriaxone-resistant strains have been spreading, particularly in parts of Asia. All case-patients have been heterosexual men, mostly in their 20s, and most have acquired the infection abroad. While transmission within England has been limited, UKHSA officials say they're concerned about the potential for wider spread as gonorrhea cases rise. The 85,223 gonorrhea cases reported in England in 2023 is the most annual cases in the country since officials began keeping records in 1918. "Gonorrhoea is becoming increasingly resistant to antibiotics, risking the possibility of it becoming untreatable in the future," UKHSA consultant microbiologist Helen Fifer said in a news release. "Untreated gonorrhoea can lead to serious health issues, including pelvic inflammatory disease and infertility." Fifer added that the best defense against gonorrhea is to use condoms. UKHSA sent a clinical alert to sexual health clinics advising them to culture gonococcal isolates, perform test-of-cure, and to refer all ceftriaxone-resistant strains or potential treatment failures to UKHSA.
NY officials tell providers to stop using ciprofloxacin to prevent bacterial meningitis --The New York State Department of Health (NYSDH) is telling healthcare providers to discontinue the use of ciprofloxacin in people who've had contact with patients diagnosed as having bacterial meningitis.Ciprofloxacin is among the antibiotics that have been recommended for post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) to prevent illness in contacts of people with invasive meningococcal disease, a rare but severe infection caused by Neisseria meningitidis. But in a health advisory notification yesterday, department officials said they've been finding an increase in ciprofloxacin-resistant strains of N meningitidis over the past 18 months."Providers should instead use rifampin or ceftriaxone, as they remain a first-line treatment option," State Health Commissioner James McDonald, MD, MPH. said in a press release. "Importantly, the treatment recommendations have not changed—it's vital to begin antibiotic treatment promptly when invasive meningococcal disease is suspected."According to the notification, 4 of 20 N meningitidis isolates (20%) collected from invasive meningococcal disease patients in New York but outside of New York City in 2023 were resistant to ciprofloxacin. In New York City, 6 (17%) of 35 isolates collected from patients from July 23, 2023, to July 22, 2024, were resistant. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends discontinuing ciprofloxacin PEP when at least 2 patients and 20% of patients in a local catchment area have resistant strains.The NYSDH said azithromycin may also be used as an alternative option for PEP.Invasive meningococcal disease can cause swelling of the brain, bloodstream infections, and joint infections, and is fatal in 10% to 15% of cases. Roughly 30 cases occur each year in New York state.
Report: Gut microbiome of nursing home residents a 'major reservoir' of antibiotic resistance genes --A study in Australia suggests the gut microbiomes of nursing home residents harbor hundreds of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), researchers reported yesterday in the Journal of Infection. Conducted from March 2019 through March 2020 at five long-term aged-care facilities in South Australia, the study analyzed resident stool samples and medical records to define the gut resistome in nursing home residents and determine the relationship between antibiotic exposure and enteric ARG carriage. Because of the challenges of diagnosing infections in the elderly and the higher likelihood of poor outcomes, widespread empiric antibiotic use is common in nursing homes, and residents experience disproportionate rates of drug-resistant infections. But little is known about asymptomatic carriage of resistance elements.Of the 164 residents (median age, 88; 71.9% women) who provided stool samples, 61% were prescribed antibiotics at least once in the prior 12 months (median prescriptions, 4), primarily for soft tissue, respiratory, or suspected urinary tract infections. The most commonly prescribed antibiotics were penicillins (33.5%), cephalosporins (32.3%), trimethoprim (22%), and doxycycline (12.8%). Metagenomic analysis identified more than 1,100 unique ARGs conferring resistance to 38 antibiotic classes, including 20 ARGs of high clinical concern. Carriage of one or more ARGs of clinical concern was identified in 99% of participants.Multivariate analysis found doxycycline exposure to be the greatest risk factor for high ARG abundance (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 14.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.3 to 40.9). High enteric ARG abundance was also associated with the number of separate antibiotic exposures (aOR, 6.4; 95% CI, 2.5 to 16.5), exposures within the prior 30 days (aOR, 4.6; 95% CI, 1.9 to 11.2) and prior 30 to 100 days (aOR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.1 to 6.1), high duration of antibiotic exposure (aOR, 7.9; 95% CI, 3.1 to 19.9), and exposure to three or more antibiotic classes (aOR, 7.4; 95% CI, 2.9 to 18.6). "Overall, the implications of our findings extend beyond individual treatment options," the study authors wrote. "They emphasise the importance of a holistic approach to antibiotic stewardship in long-term aged care settings, particularly in light of the expected surge in long-term aged care residency in the future."
Study finds significant pre-COVID declines in antibiotic-resistant infections at VA hospitals - An analysis of 15 years' of data from the Veterans Affairs (VA) Healthcare System found significant reductions in several antibiotic-resistant healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US researchers reported yesterday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.The study authors say the observed reductions in pathogens like methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium indicate that hospital infection control measures within the VA system have been successful and should be continued. But the study also found worrisome increases in HAIs across other pathogen-drug combinations over the study period, along with a nationwide surge in some drug-resistant HAIs during the first 2 years of COVID-19 pandemic. That combination, the authors say, highlights the need for ongoing and improved antimicrobial resistance surveillance. To characterize the landscape of infection incidence and antimicrobial resistance within the VA Healthcare System, a team led by researchers from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health used electronic health records to analyze clinical microbiology data from all patients admitted to 138 VA medical centers from February 2007 through March 2022. The main outcomes were the resistance proportion (the proportion of incident bacterial isolates identified as resistant) and the phenotypic incidence rate (incidence of infections per 1,000 admissions identified as resistant or susceptible). The analysis focused on nine pathogens that are most commonly associated with HAIs, community-acquired infections, and multidrug-resistance, and 28 drug-pathogen combinations. The authors note that few studies to date have provided estimates for multiple pathogen-drug combinations for more than 5 years. Moreover, most of those studies have focused on the percentage of isolates with a resistant test result, which doesn’t reveal how the incidence of infections caused by resistant pathogens has changed. Over the study period, the researchers collected 991,527 incident isolates from 507,760 patients. The most commonly isolated organisms were S aureus, Escherichia coli, and Klebsiella pneumoniae, mostly collected from non–blood culture sites.Through December 2019, the overall infection incidence across all nine pathogens declined, with the largest declines seen in Enterococcus faecium and S aureus. In addition, the proportion of S aureus infections that were MRSA declined from 57.7% to 44.6% (average annual percentage change [AAPC], –1.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], –2.4% to –1.2%) and the proportion of E faecium infections resistant to vancomycin fell from 77.8% to 65.1% (AAPC, –1.2%; 95% CI, –2.5% to 0%). Fluoroquinolone resistance also declined, in both proportion and incidence, for most pathogens. But resistance didn't decline in all pathogens during the pre-COVID period. Third-generation cephalosporin resistance in E coli infections climbed from 6.7% in 2007 to 15.3% in 2019 (AAPC, 8.5%; 95% CI, 6.2% to 10.7%), caused primarily by an increase in the incidence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)–producing E coli. Carbapenem resistance in Enterobacter cloacae infections increased from 1.1% to 7.3% (AAPC, 19.8%; 95% CI, 13.7% to 26.2%).From January 2020 through March 2022, infection incidence and resistance trends rose for several pathogen-drug combinations, most notably carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB). The AACP for incidence of CRAB for the COVID period was 16.2% (95% CI, –12.8% to 54.9%), and the AACP for resistance proportion was 18.5% (95% CI, –16.2% to 67.7%). These trends mirror reporting by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which has documented sharp increases in CRAB and other drug-resistant HAIs in USA hospitals during the pandemic. The study authors say the pre-pandemic declines in HAI incidence and resistance proportions could be explained by trends and policies observed in the VA Healthcare System over the study period.
Global cholera cases decline, but deaths on the rise -Compared to last year at this time, global cholera cases have declined 31%, but deaths are 34% higher, the World Health Organization (WHO) said today in its latest update, which includes data received in July.For July, 17 countries reported nearly 52,000 cases, along with 223 deaths. Four WHO regions reported cases, with the Eastern Mediterranean region hit hardest, followed by the African region. Since late July, Nepal has reported new cholera clusters from several districts. The WHO said the response to the outbreaks is still hampered by a shortage of oral cholera vaccine, with 105 million doses requested by 18 countries since January 2023, nearly double the 55 million doses produced over that period. The WHO said the global risk is still very high and is considered a grade 3 emergency. It added that transmission dynamics are increasingly complex, reflecting factors that cross county borders, such as population mobility, natural disasters, and climate change.
Weather, location drive US waterborne infectious disease outbreaks, researchers say --Weather, geographic factors, and drinking-water sources all influence outbreaks of waterborne infectious diseases in the United States, Columbia University researchers report in PLOS Water, and their finding have important implications amid the heavier floods, more extreme droughts, and greater seasonal precipitation tied to climate change.The researchers analyzed data from 516 hospitals in 25 US states on hospitalizations for 12 waterborne bacterial, parasitic, and viral infections, as well as weather and soil data, from 2000 to 2011 to determine the role of weather, drinking water sources, geographic area, and rural versus urban residence.The studied pathogens were Legionella, respiratory and intestinal Pseudomonas, nontuberculous mycobacteria, Salmonella, Campylobacter, Shigella, Escherichia coli, Cryptosporidium, Giardia, multiple species of amoeba and other protozoa, and norovirus."Waterborne pathogens can cause severe intestinal, respiratory, or systemic infections in vulnerable people," the study authors wrote. "Meteorology, hydroclimatology, and drinking water infrastructure influence the transmission of waterborne infectious diseases in the United States, but their roles are not well-understood and may vary by pathogen type or geographic region."While biofilm-forming bacteria (eg, nontuberculosis mycobacteria, Pseudomonas, Legionella) are ubiquitous in environmental water, pathogens that cause gastrointestinal illness are often introduced into the environment through human or animal waste, the researchers noted. Precipitation, flooding, and drought all influence the level and dispersion of waterborne pathogens. For example, floods stir up pathogens in sediment, soil, and water and overwhelm sanitation systems, resulting in the release of untreated sewage. Droughts, on the other hand, concentrate pathogens through low water levels. Hospitalizations for waterborne illnesses during the 12-year study period totaled 57,335. Biofilm-forming bacteria accounted for nearly 81% of all hospitalizations, with 60% due to respiratory Pseudomonasinfections. Other common causes of hospitalization were nontuberculous mycobacteria (9.6%), Salmonella(8.0%), and Legionella (4.1%). Hospitalization rates for intestinal and biofilm-forming bacteria were significantly higher in areas in which groundwater rather than surface water was used for drinking and in those with privately owned community water systems. Hospitalization rates for cryptosporidiosis were nearly three times greater in groundwater than in surface water, while giardiasis rates were slightly higher in surface water. Of the intestinal bacteria, Campylobacter and E coli hospitalizations were more often linked to groundwater, while those due to salmonellosis and shigellosis were similar between drinking-water categories. Using a generalized linear mixed-model framework, the team found a 16% lower rate of hospitalizations for bacterial pathogens in urban versus rural areas. Notably, Campylobacter hospitalizations were 31% lower in urban areas, 27% lower when the illness was linked to surface drinking water, and 11% higher with a 1–standard-deviation (SD) rise in runoff. Legionnaires' disease, a severe type of pneumonia caused by inhalation of Legionella bacteria from soil or water, spiked 124% with a 1-SD increase in soil moisture. Legionnaires' was the only illness more common in urban rather than rural areas. Admission rates for all pathogens were higher in small and rural hospitals, especially for parasitic diseases. Hospitalizations for parasitic diseases—primarily caused by Cryptosporidium—were 9% higher with a 1-SD climb in precipitation."Rural communities typically use drinking water from private wells, which are vulnerable to inundation during floods, or groundwater sources, which are often undertreated relative to surface drinking water," the researchers wrote. "This is of particular concern in agricultural regions; both increased pathogen concentrations in water and illnesses have been associated with wet conditions near farms."Precipitation, runoff, and rural location were positively associated with hospitalizations for some intestinal bacterial and parasitic infections associated with livestock, especially in the Midwest, while hospitalizations for biofilm-forming bacterial infections were tied to soil moisture (a proxy for flooding), and hospitalization rates were higher in urban than rural areas. "The ability to persist in the environment or evade water treatment measures varies by pathogen and may help explain why the effect of meteorological conditions is not uniform," the authors wrote. Bacterial pathogens showed the most consistent seasonality, with hospitalizations peaking from July through September in all regions, with the highest spikes in the central and north-central Midwest.
More than 4 billion worldwide lack access to safe drinking water - A new study indicates more than 4 billion people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) lack access to safe drinking water, Swiss researchers reported yesterday inScience. Combining household surveys and earth observation data (including satellite, airborne, and land-based data) with geospatial modelling techniques, a team led by researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology estimated that only 33% of the total population of 135 LMIC's used a safely managed drinking water service (SMDWS) in 2020, leaving approximately 4.4 billion without access to safe drinking water. That's more than twice the number of people estimated to lack access to safe drinking water in a 2020 by the World Health Organization and the United Nations (UN) Children's Fund Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene. The lowest national rates of SMDWS use were in sub-Saharan Africa. The study estimates that, in 12 countries in the region, less than 10% of the population used SMDWS in 2020. The study also found that access to safe drinking water in LMICs is primarily limited by fecal contamination, which affects nearly half the population in those countries and is indicated by Escherichia coli contamination in the primary drinking water source. "Detection of fecal contamination in drinking water is concerning, as ingestion of fecal pathogens is a major driver of diarrheal disease, one of the leading causes of under-five child mortality globally," the study authors wrote.The authors note that access to safe drinking water is recognized as a basic human right and plays a core role in the UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. They add that drawing attention to the many regions lacking safe water could "inform the mobilization and effective allocation of financial resources and human capacity" to address the issue. "By filling crucial data gaps, our results point toward a substantial underestimation of the number of people whose basic human rights to safe drinking water are not being met and provide information on which subcomponents may be limiting use of SMDWS regionally," they wrote.
WHO, UNICEF call for cease fire in Gaza to allow polio vaccination - The World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF today called for a humanitarian pause in Gaza for 7 days to allow two rounds of polio vaccination to take place, following the recent detection of virus in environmental samples and the identification of three suspected cases of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) in children.Stool samples from the children with AFP have been sent for testing to Jordan's national polio lab. The agencies have plans to launch two rounds of vaccination at the end of August and September across the Gaza Strip, targeting 640,000 children younger than 10 with novel oral polio vaccine type 2 (nOPV2). More than 1.6 million doses are earmarked for the vaccination response.According to finalized plans, vaccination will be delivered by 708 teams made up of 2,700 health workers total and will take place at hospitals, field hospitals, and primary healthcare centers. The WHO said that, before the hostilities, Gaza had been free of polio for 25 years. "Its reemergence, which the humanitarian community has warned about for the last ten months, represents yet another threat to the children in the Gaza Strip and neighboring countries," the group said. " A ceasefire is the only way to ensure public health security in the Gaza Strip and the region." In other developments, three countries reported more polio cases this week, according to the latest update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. Pakistan reported 2 more wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) cases, both in Balochistan, raising its total for the year to 14, up sharply from the 6 cases it reported in 2023. Two African countries reported more cases involving circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2). Liberia reported its first case since 2021, which was in Sinoe. Angola reported one case in Moxico.
60% of American Samoans have evidence of previous dengue infection - Since 2021, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has recommended dengue vaccination for kids ages 9 to 16 in communities where more than 20% of age-eligible persons have previously been infected with the virus. While vaccination offers strong protection for people with prior infections, but it may increase the risk of severe dengue and hospitalization among those without previous infection at the time of vaccination.According to a new seroprevalence survey study in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, more than 60% of school-aged children in American Samoa have evidence of a previous dengue infection, suggesting the region meets the criteria established for routine dengue vaccination.From 2016 through 2018, a dengue outbreak in America Samoa resulted in 660 confirmed cases, and transmission of the vector-borne virus was classified as frequent or continuous.In the study, a total of 887 students received testing in September and October 2023. The median participant age was 11 years, and 54% of participants were girls. Among tested students, 492 (56%) received positive results for dengue immunoglobulin G, and 371 (42%) received negative results; results for 24 (3%) students were uninterpretable, the authors said.Estimated seroprevalence among all students aged 7 to16 years was 59% (95% confidence interval [CI], 47% to71%) and was 60% (95% CI, 48% to 72%) among those age-eligible for vaccination (9 to 16 years)."Seroprevalence is high among all age groups, indicating widespread previous exposure to DENV and potential risk for future outbreaks as well as associated secondary cases among persons previously infected," the authors concluded. "In American Samoa, dengue vaccines could be part of a broader strategy for dengue control."
Medicare data estimate Lyme disease rate 7 times higher than surveillance shows -Most Lyme disease (LD) diagnoses among more than 88,000 US Medicare beneficiaries over a 4-year period occurred in the summer among men and those living in high-incidence states, and its overall incidence was about seven times higher than that reported through public health surveillance, finds a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study published yesterday in Emerging Infectious Diseases.The investigators compared rates of the tickborne illness from Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) data with those of surveillance data among adults aged 65 or older from 2016 to 2019. In total, 88,485 Medicare enrollees were diagnosed as having LD from 2016 to 2019, with an average incidence of 123.5 cases per 100,000 person-years, 7.4 times higher than the 34,183 cases picked up by surveillance during the same period (average rate, 16.6 cases/100,000 persons). Roughly 82% of LD diagnoses occurred in high-incidence states. The median incidence was 346.9 per 100,000 person-years in high-incidence states, 35.3/100,000 person-years in states or jurisdictions bordering high-incidence states, and 29.4/100,000 person-years in low-incidence states. Surveillance data, by contrast, showed that 93% of LD cases occurred among residents of high-incidence states. The median incidence was 57.1 per 100,000 people in high-incidence states, 3.6/100,000 persons in states abutting high-incidence states, and 0.6/100,000 persons in low-incidence states.Most LD cases (57.8%) in Medicare enrollees were diagnosed from May through August, and 72.6% of cases reported in surveillance data occurred in the summer. The peak in surveillance cases was more prominent than that in Medicare-reported cases in all regions. A larger percentage of LD diagnoses occurred in winter in low-incidence areas.A total of 56.1% of LD cases were diagnosed in men per Medicare data, while 60.4% in men were represented in surveillance data. The median annual LD rate among male Medicare beneficiaries was 134.3 diagnoses per 100,000 person-years (range, 131.6 to 160.5 diagnoses/100,000 person-years). The median annual LD rate among female beneficiaries was 109.5 diagnoses per 100,000 person-years (range, 103.3 to 125.7 diagnoses/100,000 person-years). In contrast, surveillance data showed a median annual incidence among men of 19.6 cases/100,000 people (range, 17.8 to 22.5), and a median annual incidence in women of 13.2 cases/100,000 people (range, 12.3 to 14.9).
Bite-sized Threats of Ticks - Your Local Epidemiologist --Well, we are still in the dead middle of tick season. Does it seem like the season is getting longer? Or are you seeing more and more ticks around? While there are nearly 900 species of ticks globally, and their reach is increasing, only a handful pose a risk to human health. Unfortunately, like anything, rumors about ticks—their spread, risk, and effective tools—are abundant on social media. The geographic range of ticks is expanding. Most tick species thrive in warmth, humidity, and lush spring vegetation, so ticks cluster based on habitat. Over the years, the distribution of tick populations has grown. For example, the map below shows the reach of the black-legged (deer) tick in 1996 versus 2015, which shows expansion across the northeast. This tick can cause Lyme disease. The Gulf Coast tick population expansion is shown below. This tick can cause Rickettsia parkeri rickettsiosis. The dark black line shows the distribution before 1996, but surveillance shows these ticks are moving North. Why the increase in tick ranges? A lot of reasons, including:
- Increased interaction between humans and animals as a result of land development, human population growth, and proximity to backyard wildlife.
- Less harsh winters mean more ticks survive overwintering. Ticks produce antifreeze, so the temperature must be below 10F for several days for ticks to die.
- Increased surveillance of tick species that are of human and agricultural concern.
Ticks can transmit at least 20 diseases in the U.S. The U.S. has ~20 tick-borne diseases (TBD). But not every tick you encounter will give you a disease. That’s because several things need to fall into place:
- The right species of tick
- The right pathogen inside the tick
- The right bite (each pathogen has a minimum attachment time)
- Immune system doesn’t clear it before it causes illness
The most common TBD is Lyme disease, a bacterial infection transmitted by two species of ticks in the U.S. (concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest). Lyme is most common because the black-legged tick has a relatively broad distribution, and the bacteria have well-established populations in white-footed mice and white-tailed deer reservoirs. Lyme disease occurs if Borrelia burgdorferi (the bacteria) evades the immune system at the tick bite, causing flu-like symptoms. Certain strains can cause more severe symptoms like neurological and cardiac issues, which occur in about 1-10% of Lyme cases. Around 30,000-50,000 Lyme cases are reported in the U.S. every year, with 95% of cases occurring in 15 states. CDC generously estimates that up to 475,000 people could be infected annually. An important distinction in these estimates is CDC’s is based on people seeking antibiotic prescriptions for Lyme, a behavior influenced by public perception and misinformation (more on that in a little). Confirmed Lyme disease has doubled since 1991, thanks to ticks’ expanding territory and improved ability to diagnose disease. (You’ll notice a big jump in 2022. However, this is due to a change in the definition rather than an increase in risk or spread of disease.) The most fatal tick-borne disease in the U.S. is Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF), but it is rare. Between 250 and 6,000 cases occur in the U.S. every year, and the mortality rate of RMSF can be up to 30% without prompt treatment. Most cases occur in five states (North Carolina, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri), transmitted by the American Dog Tick and the Brown Dog Tick. In recent years, the disease’s range has expanded, especially in parts of the Southwest (Arizona, New Mexico), where it particularly impacts Indigenous populations. One of the most talked about TBD, beyond Lyme disease, is alpha-gal syndrome. Unlike other tick illnesses, alpha-gal syndrome is not an infection but a rare allergy to a sugar present in mammals that ticks feed on. It has been linked to the Lone Star tick, found primarily in Southeast but which is starting to creep North. Symptoms appear if a person consumes animal products containing alpha-gal. Current data suggest about 0.15% of the US population has been diagnosed with alpha-gal allergy. Getting bitten by a tick DOES NOT guarantee you’ll get infected with something. In the case of Lyme disease, the risk of illness following a tick bite in an endemic area is 1-5%. In many places where black-legged ticks are found, only a small proportion of the ticks even carry the bacteria. Ticks also need to feed for a minimum amount of time to transmit diseases. Sending ticks in for testing plays a role in surveillance but not diagnosis. Finding something in a tick doesn’t mean it was transmitted to you after a tick bite.
CDC pandemic review of US H5N1 virus on par with earlier assessments from same clade -- The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) late last week published its assessment of the H5N1 avian influenza virus that infected a dairy worker in Texas, putting its risk to the general public as low and its risk as a potential pandemic virus as moderate, similar to that posed by two other recent 2.3.4.4b clade viruses.Health officials had announced in May that the CDC had started the detailed process of conducting a pandemic risk assessment using its Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT). With IRAT, CDC scientists' goals are answering two risk assessment questions, one on emergence and the other on public health impact. Health officials use IRAT to gauge the pandemic potential of flu viruses and to guide preparedness measures.The CDC has published two previous assessments for viruses from the 2.3.4.4b clade, one in July 2023 for the H5N1 virus that triggered an outbreak at a Spanish mink farm and the other in March 2022 for a sample from a wigeon duck collected in South Carolina in 2021 when the virus first began circulating in US wild birds. Like the other two recent 2.3.4.4b viruses, the subtype that infected the Texas patient is in the moderate risk for both future emergence and public health impact. CDC experts submitted the scores for the virus from the Texas patient on June 26, which include information from other US cases but not the most recent ones reported in Colorado poultry workers. The CDC said the Texas virus scored slightly higher on some risk elements, but lower on others compared to other recent 2.3.4.4b strains. The newer virus had a public health impact score similar to the Spanish mink farm virus, but it had a higher emergence score than the other two viruses. "However, the mean-high and mean-low acceptable score ranges for these viruses overlap, indicating that these viruses remain similar, and their overall risk scores remain 'moderate,' " the group said. Compared to 15 other viruses on the CDC's IRAT list, the Texas virus has the sixth-highest emergence score and the seventh-highest public impact score. In other H5N1 developments, the Colorado Veterinary Medical Association recently warned animal health providers about potential infections in cats, even if all the risk factors or clinical signs aren't present. Of six H5N1 confirmations in Colorado cats so far, only one was directly linked to a dairy farm. Three were indoor cats that had access to the outdoors and could have hunted mice or birds, and two were exclusively indoor cats. Five had similar symptoms, which started with lethargy and poor appetite and progressed to respiratory and neurologic symptoms. Several were tested for rabies, owing to a similar clinical picture.
US undercounts bird flu in cattle as farmers shun testing August 15, 2024 (Reuters) - The U.S. bird-flu outbreak in dairy cattle is much larger than official figures suggest due to farmers' reluctance to test their animals and risk the economic consequences of a positive result, according to Reuters interviews with dairy experts, veterinarians, and farmers in six states with known cases.The U.S. Department of Agriculture has counted bird flu in about 190 dairy herds in 13 states since March. The virus's jump from birds to cows heightened concerns that it could adapt to spread among humans. Scientists have warned that limited surveillance could weaken the U.S.' ability to respond to further human spread. Thirteen dairy and poultry farm workers have been infected with bird flu this year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Reuters spoke with more than a dozen researchers, veterinarians, farmers, and livestock industry groups to understand whether the bird-flu spread in dairy cattle is being accurately tracked. State animal and human health experts in three states who work closely with veterinarians and farmers said the government tally is likely an undercount because farmers are fearful of the economic hardship brought by a positive test, including being restricted from selling their milk or cattle for weeks. The virus reduces milk production in cattle. The U.S., the world's second-largest cheese producer after the European Union, is the only country with known infections in cows. "While we have nine official positives, there are many, many, many more farms that are impacted or infected that are just not testing," said Joe Armstrong, a veterinarian and cattle expert at the University of Minnesota, who has spoken with farmers across the state. A more accurate cattle case count for Minnesota would be three to five times higher, Armstrong said. A USDA spokesperson said the agency has encouraged testing by requiring negative tests for cows being shipped over state lines since April and offering a voluntary program for testing farmers' milk supplies weekly. Twenty-four dairy herds are participating in that program, of roughly 24,000 farms nationally that sell milk, according to agency data.
Federal testing on more retail dairy products finds no live H5N1 virus --A second round of testing of retail dairy products, which includes more products such as cheese and butter and from a broader geographic area, found no live H5N1 avian flu virus in any of the samples, federal officials said today.At a Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) media briefing today, Steve Grube, MD, chief medical officer for the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (CFSAN), said the testing included 167 samples from 27 states and was designed to provide a more comprehensive picture of H5N1's impact on different products. Testing included different cheeses, including some aged varieties made from raw milk, butter, ice cream, and milk.FDA and US Department of Agriculture scientists involved in the study recently published their findings on the medRxiv preprint server, meaning the data have not yet been peer-reviewed. Grube said though 17% of the products had traces of the virus (viral RNA), follow-up testing yielded no viable virus, which he said confirms the effectiveness of commercial pasteurization. He said since dairy products aren't always made where the milk was collected, so it's hard to pinpoint the source for products that had virus traces. If live virus were found, however, scientists could unblind the samples and take steps to trace the products.All 23 aged raw milk samples were negative for viral RNA via polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing, but Grube said more research is needed to assess if the aging process is effective for virus inactivation. Eric Deeble, DVM, the USDA's deputy undersecretary for marketing and regulatory programs, said the agency continues to intensify its efforts to let dairy farmers know about support for affected farms. So far, 35 farms have applied for compensation for avian flu related milk losses, and 23 have been approved so far for support totaling about $2 million. Meanwhile, Emilio Esteban, DVM, PhD, USDA undersecretary for food safety, said the USDA is launching a study to sample more samples from beef collected from culled dairy cows—animals that aren't sick but are removed from production for reasons such as lack of milk production. He said USDA scientists will test 800 samples over the next year. At today's briefing, Deeble said it's too soon to say if federal officials have gotten ahead of the outbreaks in dairy cows. Testing continues at a high level, and he said he thinks the federal response is adequate and that federal officials have a good picture of how the virus has spread through cattle movements to different states. Currently, H5N1 confirmations in dairy herds appear to have slowed, standing at 190 herds in 13 states.As fall approaches, though, interstate movements of dairy cows pick back up with a greater demand for milk, partly due to school resuming.Grube said federal officials remain in contact with state regulators to best understand how and where to test milk in the supply chain.
US to expand bird-flu testing of beef in slaughterhouses (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday it will expand bird-flu testing of beef entering the food supply as part of its response to the ongoing outbreak among dairy cattle, adding that U.S. beef and dairy products remain safe to consume. USDA officials, in a call with reporters along with staff from other U.S. health agencies, said the tests will begin in mid-September and urged livestock workers to remain vigilant. Nearly 200 herds in 13 U.S. states have contracted bird flu since March after the virus jumped from wild birds to cows, according to USDA data. The USDA in May tested 109 beef samples from dairy cows sent to slaughter and found bird flu virus particles in one cow's tissue sample. Older dairy cattle are often slaughtered for ground beef. The expanded testing will continue for the rest of the year, and will focus on beef from dairy cows, said Emilio Esteban, USDA's under secretary for food safety. Eric Deeble, deputy under secretary for marketing and regulatory programs, said the USDA is confident with the current level of bird-flu testing conducted by the nation's dairy farmers. "I do feel that the response is adequate," he said.The Food and Drug Administration is talking with states about the plausibility of additional nationwide raw milk testing, said Steve Grube, chief medical officer of the Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition. Colorado implemented mandatory weekly milk testing for dairy farmers on July 22 and has since detected 10 additional positive herds in the state.Farm workers remain at risk of bird-flu infections so long as the virus circulates among livestock, said Nirav Shah, principal deputy director at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Thirteen poultry and dairy workers have contracted bird flu since April, according to the CDC.
Nut Recall Update As Highest Risk Warning Issued By FDA – A nut recall has been issued the highest possible risk classification by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. In July, California-based Stutz Packing Company voluntarily recalled packages of its Shelled Walnuts after they were found to be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes, a bacterium that can cause food poisoning. The item has now been updated to a Class I risk level by the FDA. A Class I recall, the highest risk level, is issued when there is a "reasonable probability" that the use of or exposure to a product could "cause serious adverse health consequences or death." Two lot codes are included in the recall: 24171 1 and 24172 1. Both have a UPC code of 7 15001 00908 1. Affected items were distributed in Arizona and Texas only, with 2,538 cases being recalled in total. The product comes in clear plastic packaging with a red-outlined white box printed in the center of the bag, weighing 1 pound each. "The recall was the result of routine sampling which revealed that the finished products contained the bacteria," a press release issued on July 22 reads. "Stutz has ceased the production and distribution of this product as FDA and Stutz continue their investigation. No other sizes, varieties, or other packaging of Shelled Walnuts are included in this recall."
Popular Sweetener Linked To Increased Risk of Blood Clots, Heart Attack, And Stroke -Erythritol is a popular choice for those looking to cut down on sugar without losing flavor, but its health effects are often debated. New Cleveland Clinic research reveals a concerning finding: Erythritol makes platelets—blood cells involved in clotting—more active, leading them to react more strongly and increasing the risk of blood clots, heart attack, and stroke. Cleveland Clinic researchers say this discovery, part of a series exploring the physiological effects of common sugar substitutes, may prompt a reassessment of how we use this sweetener.The new findings build on the research team’s prior erythritol study. The previous study was limited because some of the participants had poor health, with over 70 percent having cardiovascular issues. The new study addresses these limitations by recruiting healthy adults.“This research adds to increasing evidence that erythritol raises cardiovascular risk. In a small group of healthy volunteers, we show ingesting erythritol made platelets more hyper-responsive ... which can raise the risk of blood clots,” senior and corresponding author Dr. Stanley Hazen, chair of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Sciences in Cleveland Clinic’s Lerner Research Institute and co-section head of Preventive Cardiology, told The Epoch Times in an email. Erythritol is a popular sugar substitute used in many “low-carb” and “keto” foods. It is about 70 percent as sweet as sugar and is produced by fermenting corn or wheat starch. Health and weight-loss professionals often recommend it as a safer alternative to sugar for individuals with high cardiovascular risk factors, such as obesity, diabetes, or metabolic syndrome.Although erythritol is classified as generally recognized as safe (GRAS) by both the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Food Safety Authority and is naturally found in fruits and vegetables, recent studies by Hazen’s group indicate that consuming typical amounts of erythritol may pose an increased cardiovascular risk.“This paper builds on our earlier studies with erythritol [published in 2023 in Nature Medicine],” said Hazen, in which large-scale clinical observation studies in the United States and Europe showed that cardiac patients with higher levels of erythritol in their blood were twice as likely to suffer a major cardiac event—such as heart attack, stroke, or death—within the next three years compared to those with lower levels. The study also showed that adding erythritol to blood or platelets increased clot formation. Preclinical studies confirmed these findings.
Cancer deaths among men expected to rise 94 percent worldwide by 2050: Study -- Cancer cases and deaths among men are projected to skyrocket by 2050, according to a new study, especially for those aged 65 and older. The research, published in the journal Cancer, showed the current sharp disparity in cancer mortality and cases among men is likely to increase without interventions. Between 2022 and 2050, cancer cases among men are projected to increase 84 percent from 10.3 million to 19 million. Deaths are expected to rise 94 percent, from 5.4 million to 10.5 million, with a 117 percent increase among men aged 65 years and older. Cancer cases and deaths are projected to increase nearly 40 percent among working-age groups and by 50 percent in countries that have a lower income and life expectancy. The global age-adjusted cancer mortality rate in 2020 was 43 percent greater among men than among women. Similarly, the incidence rate was 19 percent greater among men than among women. Men have higher risk factors that lead to more cases of cancer and lower survival rates, but those are also risk factors that can be modified. Men are more likely to smoke and drink alcohol, and they are also more likely to be exposed to carcinogens in the workplace. The disparities could also arise from men’s lower participation in cancer prevention activities and underuse of available prevention, screening and treatment options. In the study, researchers analyzed 2022 data about cancer cases and deaths from 30 different types of cancer in 185 countries. As in 2022, lung cancer is projected to remain the leading cancer type for both cases and deaths by 2050, with both cases and deaths increasing by greater than 87 percent. The study projected cases of mesothelioma to increase the most between 2022 and 2050, and the biggest increase in deaths to come from prostate cancer. Between 2022 and 2050, the percentage increase in cancer cases is projected to range from 50 percent in more developed countries to nearly 140 percent in less developed countries. The increase in deaths is projected to range from about 64 percent in more developed countries to 142 percent in less developed countries. The researchers said that stronger health access and infrastructure, including an adequate health workforce, are essential to improve current cancer outcomes in men and to prepare for the anticipated rise in cancer burden by 2050.
SpaceX repeatedly polluted waters in Texas, regulators found -- Elon Musk’s SpaceX violated environmental regulations by repeatedly releasing pollutants into or near bodies of water in Texas, a state agency said in a notice of violation focused on the company’s water deluge system at its Starbase launch facility. The notice from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) last week came five months after the Environmental Protection Agency Region 6 office, which covers Texas and surrounding states, had also informed SpaceX that it violated the Clean Water Act with the same type of activity. The notices and related investigative records, obtained by CNBC, have not been previously reported. TCEQ said its agency’s office in the South Texas city of Harlingen, near Starbase in Boca Chica, received a complaint on Aug. 6, 2023, alleging that SpaceX “was discharging deluge water without TCEQ authorization.” “In total, the Harlingen region received 14 complaints alleging environmental impacts from the Facility’s deluge system,” the regulator said in the document. Aerospace companies, including SpaceX, generally need to be in compliance with state and federal laws to gain approval from the Federal Aviation Administration for future launches. SpaceX was seeking permission to conduct up to 25 annual launches and landings of its Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy rocket at its Boca Chica facility. Notices of violation could delay those approvals and result in civil monetary penalties for SpaceX, further probes and criminal charges. In a lengthy post on X, following publication of this story, SpaceX said regulators have told the company that it can continue with launch operations despite the violation notices. “Throughout our ongoing coordination with both TCEQ and the EPA, we have explicitly asked if operation of the deluge system needed to stop and we were informed that operations could continue,” SpaceX wrote on X. Neither regulator answered CNBC’s questions regarding SpaceX’s statement.
On patrol with Thailand’s ‘Anti-Monkey Unit’ battling to keep primates at bay in Lopburi ABC Australia A city in Thailand has been caught between rival gangs of monkeys that have terrorised, mugged and assaulted locals, even driving some from their homes and businesses. Lopburi is famous for its long-tailed macaques and even hosts an annual banquet for the animals but in recent years the population has exploded and has started causing trouble. Tensions boiled over earlier this year when a woman dislocated her knee after she was kicked in the back by a monkey that wanted her food. In April, after growing complaints from residents, authorities started rounding up thousands of the monkeys and putting them in large enclosures to be sterilised and registered while they try to find a more permanent solution. But soon after the "arrests" had begun, about 30 monkeys escaped and stormed the police station. A caged monkey holds onto the wired fence of its enclosure as it looks out. Some of the monkeys have been detained but others broke out of their enclosures and charged into a police station.(ABC News: Lauren Day) Police Lance Corporal Arnu Amarit said with the growing number of monkeys, there's not been enough food for them all. "When monkeys are hungry, they snatch food from people walking around," he said. "They are getting fiercer and more aggressive, especially the ringleaders … they attack vehicles or push people." The situation is so serious police have set up a task force, which the media has dubbed the "Anti-Monkey Unit". "Our unit is a prevention and suppression patrol unit," Lance Corporal Amarit said. "We take care of both criminal cases and monkey cases. We do both our main job and monkey business." Police patrol the city armed with slingshots, but Lance Corporal Amarit said they don't use ammunition. "We use slingshots but there is nothing on it, we just stretch it out to threaten them," he said. "But after a while, the monkeys adjust to it and learn that we do not use real weapons — there are no real bullets." Even the local Pibulwitthayalai School hasn't been safe from the marauding macaques. Student Panitchada Nualpoj was mugged recently by one on school grounds. "A monkey stole my AirPod and bit it," she said. "It was an expensive device and I don't have enough money to buy a new one so I was so upset, I was very sad." Fellow student Kodchaporn Runghuapai said the animals were out of control. "They don't just steal, sometimes they attack students and if they steal, it's not just food, but like key chains or my classmate's iPad and her Apple pencil, which are so expensive," she said. She said the monkeys have also taken to swimming in the school's pool. "They swim in there, they pee in there, they poop in there, anything that's so gross is all in there so it's not for humans any more, it's not for students, it's for them."
A Break in the Weather: Good News From the World’s Farms -Bumper harvests in wheat, corn and soybeans mean food prices are falling -The headlines suggest catastrophe for the global food supply: Biblical heatwaves, floods, storms and wildfires. And yet, in the world’s breadbaskets, the weather has been fair this growing season — so good that we’re facing an oversupply of key agricultural commodities and thus much lower prices than in 2022 and 2023. If the favorable weather persists for a couple more months, the low farm prices we enjoyed from 2015 to 2020 are on the cusp of a return. In a world still unconvinced that inflation has been slain, the drop in wholesale food prices means there’s one less thing for central bankers to worry about as they ease monetary policy. Let me emphasize the word “wholesale” — what you and I pay depends upon numerous other costs — and on whether manufacturers and retailers pass on the savings or expand their profit margins. The fine weather stretches from the US Midwest to the plains of Kazakhstan; from the Brazilian savannah to the Australian grasslands. Even in my home country of Spain, so important for olive-oil production, the growing season has been about right. The market is frontrunning the expected bumper harvests. The cost of wheat, corn and soybeans has already fallen to a four-year low, down about 50% from the all-time high set in 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Rice prices are lagging, but those costs are about to hit a one-year low. Olive-oil prices, closely tracked in my kitchen, are down 25% from their record high set in January, and probably have further to fall. Of course, there are exceptions: Coffee prices remain sky high, while the costs of cocoa and some vegetables remain high by historical standards. At supermarkets and restaurants, prices are also higher than before, but that has a lot to do with energy costs and wages, rather than food inputs. To be sure, it’s hot – too hot: July marked the 14th-consecutive month of record-high temperatures for the planet, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But that doesn’t mean catastrophe for the world’s breadbaskets. The weather isn’t the only reason why the world is heading toward lower food prices. The last two decades have seen huge improvements in agronomics. Seeds yield far more than before, even when rain and temperatures aren’t ideal, and irrigation has expanded. Farmers have access to much better hardware: large planters, powerful tractors, improved combines, larger storage facilities. Compared with a decade ago, the world will harvest in 2024-25 about 10% more wheat, about 15% more corn, nearly 30% more soybeans, and about 10% more rice. Except for corn, all the other three key food commodities will enjoy a record high production. Few regions show that combination of fair weather and scientific advances more clearly than the American Midwest. On Monday, the US Department of Agriculture said it anticipates American farmers will reap record yields for two key food commodities: on average, 183.1 bushels per acre of corn, and 53.2 bushels per acre of soybeans. Those numbers may sound alien to anyone who hasn’t set foot on a farm. Scott Irwin, a veteran agricultural economist at the University of Illinois in Champaign, about two hours drive south of Chicago, put the statistics into a very graphic description of the overgrowth: “jungle-like.”
In 2023 the world’s forests stopped acting as a carbon sink - At the recent International Carbon Dioxide Conference in Manaus, Brazil, scientists presented preliminary findings that in 2023 the world’s forests stopped acting as a carbon sink. An intense drought in the Amazon rainforest and record wildfires in Canada were part of the reason that forests and other land ecosystems emitted almost as much carbon dioxide as they removed from the atmosphere. Usually, forests remove about one-quarter of the world’s annual CO₂ emissions from the atmosphere. But in 2023, that carbon sink collapsed, study co-author Philippe Ciais of the French research organisation the Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Sciences told Reuters.As a result, in 2023, the growth rate of CO₂ in the atmosphere shot up by 86% compared to 2022. Yet CO₂ emissions — which come mainly from burning fossil fuels — only increased by between 0.1% and 1.1%. The explanation is that natural carbon sinks absorbed much less.In 2023, land carbon sinks absorbed between 1.5 and 2.6 billion metric tons of CO₂, way less than the 9.5 billion metric tons in 2022. That is the lowest level since 2003.Ciais also spoke to Le Monde:“If this collapse were to happen again in the next few years, we risk seeing a rapid increase in CO₂ and climate change beyond what the models predict.” In their paper, the scientists write that, “record warming in 2023 had a strong negative impact on the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate climate change”.Stephen Sitch, a co-author and Chair in Climate Change at the University of Exeter, said to Reuters,“Imagine your plants at home: If you don’t water them, they’re not very productive, they don’t grow, they don’t take up carbon. Put that on a big scale like the Amazon forest.”The study is still in the process of peer review, but Reuters spoke to scientists who were not involved in the research, who said that the conclusions were sound.Trevor Keenan is an ecosystem scientist at University of California, Berkeley. He was not involved in the study. “We cannot count on ecosystems to bail us out in the future,” he told Reuters.Richard Birdsey of Woodwell Climate Research Center in the US was also not involved in the study. “This is a warning,” he told Reuters. “There’s a good chance that years like 2023 are going to be more common.”
Avocado goldrush links US companies with Mexico’s deforestation disaster - On a sweltering July afternoon, two large yellow bulldozers dug into the brown soil at the bottom of a lush avocado orchard near the small town of Madero, located in central Mexico’s Michoacan state. Drone footage recorded by Reuters captured the earth movers hollowing the ground, in what Mexican environmental group Guardian Forestal — which collaborates with the Michoacan state government — and an activist who reviewed the video described as an attempt to construct a water reservoir. Mexican law requires an environmental impact study and permit to store and use water for resource-intensive avocado farming. Data from the national water authority Conagua showed only 42 reservoirs and wells in Madero were registered with permits. However, two activists interviewed by Reuters said there were hundreds of similar water pools in the area. With Michoacan battling a drought, avocado producers often resort to taking water from lakes or communal basins, draining them to worrying lows, according to three local and state officials. Illegal practices in Mexico’s avocado heartland, which is expanding rapidly to feed growing demand in the United States, come at the expense of nearby forests, according to Michoacan government officials. The environmental damage has prompted U.S. nonprofit the Organic Consumers Association to file lawsuits against unlisted West Pak Avocado Inc and another major avocado importer Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc for labeling Mexican avocados as “sustainable” or “responsibly sourced.” “Contrary to West Pak’s representations, its avocados are neither responsibly sourced nor environmentally sustainable,” the Organic Consumers Association, a Minnesota-based lobby group that has sued various food and agriculture companies over marketing claims, said in one of the lawsuits. West Pak declined to comment and Fresh Del Monte did not respond to questions for this story. The U.S. lawsuits filed in DC Superior Court Monday shine a spotlight on the supply chains of some U.S. companies operating in the Mexican avocado industry. While lucrative for the growers, the industry is under increasing pressure from organized crime groups and facing accusations of rising environmental damage. Reuters visited two orchards in July that an analysis of satellite images by U.S. nonprofit Climate Rights International showed were illegally deforested in Madero after 2015. Climate Rights International identified these two orchards as having sold avocados to West Pak as recently as December and January, according to Mexican government shipping records, also reviewed by Reuters. The voracious U.S. demand for the staple ingredient of guacamole divides communities in Mexico, where it is both a driver of economic growth and the catalyst for an environmental and social crisis. Dubbed “green gold” among Mexicans, the avocado trade has attracted crime groups that extort payments from producers and have acted as muscle for others by displacing people and deforesting the once-verdant countryside, according to 10 locals interviewed by Reuters in Michoacan. Climate Rights International, whose findings are cited in the Organic Consumers Association’s lawsuits, said it has documented more than 30 threats or acts of intimidation associated with the expanded avocado trade, including four abductions and five fatal shootings. One Madero farmer, who asked to remain anonymous due to concerns for his safety, said he was was kidnapped after he protested deforestation. “If they only knew ... behind every avocado that people in the United States eat, there is a bloodstain, a dead person, a missing person,” he said.
US supports global goal to reduce plastic production -The U.S. will support a global goal to cut plastic production, a change from its earlier support for leaving it up to each country. The shift in U.S. policy was first reported by Reuters. State Department spokesperson Wren Elhai confirmed to The Hill on Thursday that Reuters’s reporting was accurate, but did not provide additional details. Nations are slated to meet later this year with the goal of finalizing the first-ever plastics treaty. Some countries, including China, Russia and Saudi Arabia, have pushed back against efforts to limit plastic production. Minuscule plastic pieces known as microplastics have become omnipresent in the environment. Research on cells and animals has demonstrated that microplastics can impact the digestive, respiratory, endocrine, reproductive and immune systems. A study published earlier this year linked microplastic and tinier nanoplastic exposure to heart attacks, strokes and death. U.S. plastic manufacturers condemned the new U.S. position. “With this decision, the White House has turned its back on Americans whose livelihoods depend on our industry, as well as on manufacturers in all sectors that rely on plastic materials,” said Matt Seaholm, president and CEO of the Plastics Industry Association, in a written statement. But environmental advocates praised the move. “Making less plastic is the number one way to protect people and the planet from this stuff,” said Julie Teel Simmonds, a senior counsel at the Center for Biological Diversity, in a written statement. “I look forward to seeing U.S. delegates fight for these positions.”
The new EU initiative to Solve Plastic Waste is stupid, will do nothing, may be counter-productive and loads of people think it’s totally cool anyway -Since 3 July of this year, all plastic bottles in the EU must have so-called tethered caps – that is, bottle caps which cannot be removed from the bottle, even after unscrewing.They look like this …… and they are a pain in the ass.The purpose of the regulation is to reduce plastic ocean waste, although nobody really expects tethered caps to do anything about that:A packaging expert, Markus Prem from Kempten University of Applied Sciences, has sharply criticised the mandate … The fixed bottle caps are not necessary and make no sense, he said. “Does this really do anything for the planet or even for Europe? And my clear answer is: no.” It is pure activism to assuage a guilty conscience …Prem says that the amount of discarded lids that end up in the sea or in rivers and lakes is extremely low. “The industry has been forced to invest billions in new machines, among other things, for an effect that is virtually impossible to measure.”The Federal Association of German Beverage Wholesalers said in response to inquiries that manufacturing plants would have had to be converted or rebuilt. “We are assuming costs in the millions” …The proportion of plastics washed into the sea from Europe and America is small, says Prem. The overwhelming majority comes from Asia. “We would have to start somewhere else if we really wanted to make a difference.” That’s not from some crazy conspiracy theory climate denying Russian disinformation blog, by the way. It’s an article from the deutsche-presse agentur, via Der Spiegel – a magazine that absolutely loves environmental regulations. Even they know this is dumb.Retrofitting machines to stamp out the new caps is said to cost about 181,000 Euros per production line, and the tethered caps themselves cost 0.2 cents more to produce than their untethered counterparts. Even if they work as planned, there is very little scope for them to improve plastic pollution – first, because as Prem notes Europe does not contribute very much plastic to the oceans at all; and second, because various EU states, including Germany, already have bottle deposit systems. In these countries, bottle caps are generally returned with their bottles and don’t constitute a meaningful source of litter.It gets worse, though. As Gernot Kramper at Stern points out, the tethered caps have one potential and one very real downside. The potential downside is that, because they make drinking from bottles obnoxious, they will encourage some consumers to pour bottled beverages into glasses before drinking them. If enough of people do this, the environmental costs of washing all those cups will more than offset any environmental benefit. The real downside is that the tethered caps use more plastic than untethered caps. Thus the EU regulation is actually increasing production of the very material it is aiming to reduce.You might ask how we ended up with this dumb rule that makes an everyday consumable less functional and that will either do nothing for the environment or will hurt it more. The answer is the constantly escalating Eurocrat hysteria about packaging and plastics, which from the beginning has focused not on solving the problem of plastic pollution (that’s just too hard), but on degrading the consumer experience in service of lending the false impression that Something Is Being Done. The pointless tethered caps follow pointless bans on plastic straws (which contribute such a vanishingly small share of waste to the oceans that nobody has been able to measure the effect of their prohibition) and pointless-at-best bans on disposable plastic shopping bags (which on balance have probably made things worse).They have also been in the works for a very long time. In fact they go back to 2012, when the European Commission began looking into marine litter and funding studies to measure it. You must always tremble when a bureaucratic behemoth like the European Commission gets up to measuring things. Various surveys culminated in this 2016 report on Marine Beach Litter in Europe, which inspired the present tethered cap mandate. This report is the source of numerous media stories claiming that plastic bottle caps are among the most frequent sources of waste on European beaches.Here is some of the data that report contains for the North Sea, where most of the beaches are governed by countries with bottle deposit systems:
‘Cruisezilla’ passenger ships have doubled in size since 2000, environmental group warns CNN — Cruise ships have doubled in size over the past two decades, a precedent that could lead to even bigger vessels plying our oceans in the future and bringing potential problems, a new report has warned.The largest passenger vessels today are twice as large as they were in 2000, says a study conducted by European clean energy lobby group Transport and Environment (T&E), which warns of the environmental impact of the “rapidly” growing global cruise industry.The report suggests that the biggest cruise ships setting sail in 2050 could be nearly eight times larger than the Titanic, the largest passenger ship in service when it set sail in 1912 (measuring 269 meters or about 883 feet), if the growth rate continues as it is. “Today’s cruisezillas make the Titanic look like a small fishing boat,” Inesa Ulichina, sustainable shipping officer at T&E, said in a statement.“How much bigger can these giants get? The cruise business is the fastest growing tourism sector and its emissions are quickly getting out of control.” The number of cruise ships has increased by 20-fold from 21 in 1970 to 515 today, according to T&E. On its launch in 1999, Royal Caribbean’s Voyager of the Seas, which has a gross tonnage (GT) of 137,276, was the biggest cruise ship in the world. The cruise line brand’s 1,198-foot Icon of the Seas, which has seven swimming pools and a record-breaking 17,000-square-foot water park, became the world’s biggest cruise ship — with a gross tonnage of 248,663 — when it launched in January 2024.
Sea lions are suddenly dying in huge numbers along beloved California coastline -A surge of sick sea lions are washing up along the California coast suffering from symptoms of algae poisoning, experts say.The Marine Mammal Center in Sausalito has responded to 90 sick sea lions in San Luis Obispo County since July 29, and nearly 30 percent of the animals they helped have died.Experts found the sea lions are suffering from domoic acid poisoning, a neurotoxin that affects the brain and heart, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).Strong upwelling of nutrient-laden water from the deep ocean is driving a bloom of the harmful algae.'Unfortunately, many animals are dying on the beach before we have a chance to rescue them. This indicates a high level of exposure to domoic acid,' said Ruth Dover, Managing Director of the Channel Islands Marine & Wildlife Institute.The Channel Islands group said they are getting nearly 100 calls a day about sick marine mammals and has rescued 45 sea lions in the first 10 days of the outbreak.'The good news is that people realize something is wrong and know who to call,' said Dover. 'The bad news is that many of these animals are really suffering.' “This is especially concerning because these blooms didn't use to be an annual event.'The strong upwelling that causes the algae bloom is a common spring-to-summer occurrence, driven by winds that help draw cold water up from the deep ocean along the coast.Hundreds sea lions and dozens of dolphins died along the Southern California coast from domoic acid last year.This years short-lived local marine heatwave first warmed coastal waters may have set up the algae for rapid growth, according to NOAA researchers.Domoic acid, a neurotoxin produced by the algae Pseudo-nitzschia, enters the food chain and sickens marine mammals as they eat prey.
Coral bleaching threatens 73 percent of world’s reefs - Record-breaking ocean temperatures have induced an ongoing mass bleaching event that puts almost three quarters of the world’s coral reefs at risk, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch reported last month. Research associate Catherine Lachnit checks coral for signs of bleaching on Paradise Reef, Friday, Aug. 4, 2023, near Key Biscayne, Florida [AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee] This is a further warning of the climate crisis, with the working class and poor across the world bearing the primary brunt of its consequences as global temperatures rise, including in the oceans. The current global coral bleaching event (GCBE4) is the fourth on record, lasting since February 2023. The NOAA announced it officially in April 2024. The bleaching has affected coral reefs in every major ocean basin and almost 70 countries, including the US (particularly in Florida), Brazil, Panama, Costa Rica, Tuvalu, Fiji and Australia. Coral bleaching occurs when the corals are no longer able to support vital symbiotic micro-organisms called zooxanthellae. These zooxanthellae algae provide critical nutrients for the coral, without which it cannot survive for long. When the surrounding water temperatures reach higher than the thermal limit allowing for that symbiotic relationship, the coral expels the algae and turns the organism white, a process known as bleaching. The last such event—GCBE3—occurred from 2014 to 2017, and affected 65.7 percent of the world’s coral reefs. GCBE4 has, as of the latest figures from mid-July, placed 72.9 percent of coral reefs at risk of bleaching. This makes it the most widespread on record. It is well on its way to becoming the most severe, with NOAA having to introduce three additional new heat alert levels since GCBE3. As one example, the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia—the largest coral reef in the world—has been affected as part of GCBE4. In 2016, the WSWS warned of the implications of the devastating mass bleaching event of that year, which claimed almost 70 percent of the GBR’s shallow-water coral. Since then, four mass bleaching events have wreaked havoc on the GBR’s health, with the latest event shaping up to be the most catastrophic of all. A recent paper published in Nature found that GBR ocean temperatures are higher than at any point in the past 400 years. It stated: “The existential threat to the GBR ecosystem from anthropogenic [human-induced] climate change is now realised.” August 2023 marked an all-time high for global sea surface temperature (SST) at 20.98°C. Those temperatures have continued, with June 2024 measurements coming in at 20.85°C. On average, the Earth’s oceans have warmed around 0.88°C since 1850 levels. This latest global catastrophe confirms years of warnings by scientists that coral reefs would be increasingly devastated by climate change-induced heat stress. For instance, a 2007 paper published in the journal Science stated that corals would become “increasingly rare on reef systems” due to the global warming expected throughout the 21st century. The authors warned: “Decisive action on global emissions is required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.” Despite the role played by natural climate variations such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation in these high temperatures, there is no scientific doubt that the primary cause is greenhouse gas-induced climate change from the burning of fossil fuels. The health of coral reef systems is vital to the ecological functioning of the planet as a whole. Coral reefs are home to 25 percent of all marine species. Moreover, approximately six million people around the world, largely in impoverished countries, depend on coral reef fisheries for their livelihoods. These ecosystems also play a vital role in minimising other environmental impacts to millions of people around the world. Coral reefs absorb the worst impacts of storms and floodings in the world’s coastal zones. Globally, 100 to 200 million people living in these communities are at least partially protected from such hazards by coral reefs. With warmer temperatures caused by climate change, bleaching events like this have become five times more frequent than they were four to five decades ago. This reduces the time between bleaching events in which corals could otherwise recover. Dr Emma Camp, the leader of the Future Reefs Team at the University of Technology Sydney, explained: “If given a chance, coral are actually resilient and can recover. But as bleaching becomes more frequent and stronger in intensity, we’re really narrowing that window.” These climate events, already a cause for great concern by the world’s scientists and the population at large, are occurring at approximately 1℃ of global warming. On the basis of totally inadequate government pledges, the world is on track for warming of 3℃ above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.
Tropical Storm Ernesto expected to develop, threaten Puerto Rico --Tropical Storm Ernesto is forecast to develop in the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday and bring severe weather to Puerto Rico, according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters predict Ernesto will be declared a tropical storm overnight Tuesday as it reaches the Leeward Islands, and it is expected to make landfall on Puerto Rico late Tuesday. The U.S. Virgin Islands are also at risk, forecasters said. “The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm as it reaches the Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for most of these islands, where tropical storm conditions are expected to begin late tonight,” the National Hurricane Center said Monday in a forecast advisory. “Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands by later today into Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday,” it continued. Puerto Rico is expected to see 3 to 6 inches of rain, with up to 10 inches on parts of the island. The Virgin Islands are likely to see 4 to 6 inches of rain, according to the forecast. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the islands of Saint Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, Saint Martin, Saint Barthélemy, Sint Maarten, U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra. The storm is forecast to become a hurricane, though not until after it crosses Puerto Rico and curves northward into the Atlantic Ocean, potentially moving towards Bermuda.
Tropical Storm “Ernesto” forms near Leeward Islands - Tropical Storm “Ernsesto” formed at 12:00 UTC on Monday, August 12, 2024, near the Caribbean Sea as the 5th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The system is expected to bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rains to portions of the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight (LT).
- Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and Tuesday, August 13, and to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Tuesday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for this entire area.
- Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands through Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday.
- It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
At 21:00 UTC on August 12, the center of Tropical Storm “Ernesto” was located 475 km (295 miles) ESE of Antigua and 950 km (590 miles) ESE of San Juan, Puerto Rico, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The system had maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph) and was moving WNW at 44 km/h (298 mph). Its minimum central pressure was 1 009 hPa. A westward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Sint Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or early Tuesday, August 12. Tropical storm conditions are expected to start spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. NHC is urging interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Ernesto. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or Tuesday, and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. Ernesto is then forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.
Hurricane Ernesto Strikes Puerto Rico | Weather.com -- Puerto Rico is reeling from a heavy blow by Ernesto Wednesday that brought heavy rain, flooding and landslides along with strong winds that battered the island's notoriously frail power grid. "A lot of rain, a lot of rain," Edilberto Junito Romero, mayor of Culebra Island, east of Puerto Rico, told the Associated Press in a phone interview. "We have trees that have fallen on public roads. There are some roofs that are blown off."The first day of the new school year on Puerto Rico was delayed until further notice and there were several reports of people stuck in floodwaters, either in vehicles or their own homes, and requesting rescue. "As Ernesto pulls away from Puerto Rico, it now has the warm waters of the open Atlantic to strengthen as it heads north. That puts it on a course toward Bermuda some time Friday night into Saturday. And while Bermuda is a small target for a direct hit in the Atlantic, Ernesto's impacts from wind, waves and heavy rain will still be felt. To add insult to injury, a slower-moving Ernesto could keep tropical impacts lingering across the island through the weekend." A federal emergency declaration was approved by President Joe Biden, paving the way for FEMA aid and assistance. About 3.3 million people live on Puerto Rico, according to U.S. Census Bureau data from 2020. The island covers an area of about 3,400 square miles and sits about 1,000 miles southeast of Miami. Impacts were still being felt after the storm moved away from Puerto Rico. “Most of Puerto Rico is still getting hammered, but fortunately outer rain bands have finally diminished in the Virgin Islands," weather.com senior meteorologist Jonathan Erdman said, as of about 11:45 a.m. EDT Wednesday. “Sometimes the 'worst weather' in a tropical storm can happen after the center goes by.” According to the National Weather Service, up to an additional 6 inches of rain was possible in Puerto Rico, where some areas had already received up to 10 inches. “This heavy rain over mountainous terrain could trigger dangerous, destructive, life-threatening flooding and landslides," Erdman said. There were already reports of at least two landslides in the eastern half of the island. Ernesto was upgraded to a hurricane as it moved away.
Thousands in Puerto Rico without power, under flood threats as Ernesto turns into hurricane - Around 730,000 customers were without power in the aftermath of the storm, which had 70 mph winds as it passed to the north of the island, Pierluisi said.Government officials had anticipated widespread power outages across the island, as Puerto Rico’s fragile electric grid has not been permanently rebuilt since Hurricane Maria razed it in 2017.Puerto Rican Secretary of Public Safety Alexis Torres told reporters Wednesday that strong winds have caused debris and large amounts of vegetation to fall, blocking roads and bringing down power lines.Torres also said heavy rains have caused at least three major rivers to burst out of their banks, threatening the safety of hundreds of families."The danger of flooding is not over," Ernesto Rodríguez, director of the National Meteorological Service in San Juan, said a press conference Wednesday afternoon.In speaking with Telemundo Puerto Rico, NBC’s sister TV station on the island, the mayors of four towns have said the conditions have made it unsafe for residents to be outside their homes or shelters.Roads and bridges in the towns of Cidra, Jayuya, Guayama and Toa Baja have been blocked due to floods and debris.In the coastal town of Luquillo, residents used their own machetes and chainsaws to clear debris and vegetation blocking the only road the community can use to exit in case of an emergency.Elizabeth Nieves Jiménez of Toa Baja told Telemundo Puerto Rico she heard the alarm and evacuated her home. She's one of about a dozen residents who arrived at the town's shelter voluntarily late Wednesday morning. It had no power and personnel working at the shelter were trying to get a generator going.At least 375 people were in shelters islandwide as of 9:30 a.m. AST, according to data published in the Puerto Rico Emergency Portal System.Luma Energy had not deployed its emergency brigades as of late morning Wednesday because conditions remained too unsafe to be outside."I understand that they have to ensure their safety, but the people need them," Ángel David Concepción, mayor of Cidra, told Telemundo Puerto Rico in Spanish, adding that most of his town's residents have no power or water. Water pumps in most parts of Puerto Rico are powered by electricity.Pierluisi said in a press conference Wednesday afternoon that Luma Energy's brigades started to be deployed early Wednesday afternoon."What we want is for the number of customers without service to have their power restored," Pierluisi said in Spanish, adding it's hard to predict when 100% of the power will be restored.Luma Energy President Juan Saca said there are 1,500 of their emergency personnel working to restore power.
Hurricane Ernesto strengthens to Category 2 storm as it barrels toward Bermuda (Reuters) - Hurricane Ernesto on Thursday strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane as it barreled toward Bermuda threatening major damage over the weekend from powerful winds and heavy rain, after leaving hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans without power. Ernesto is forecast to strengthen further before it reaches Bermuda late on Friday, a British island territory far out in the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said. At 11 p.m. ET on Thursday (0300 GMT Friday) it was 410 miles (660 km) south-southwest of Bermuda as it headed north, packing winds of 100 mph (155 kph). "Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength on Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday," the hurricane center said. A major hurricane is a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and is capable of causing devastating or even catastrophic damage. The storm could produce up to 15 inches (38 cm) of rain that could result in life-threatening flash flooding, the hurricane center said. Only 11 storms have made direct landfall on Bermuda, an archipelago of 181 islands with a population of 64,000, since records began in 1851. Hurricanes Gonzalo in 2014 and Fabian in 2003 were the most destructive storms to hit Bermuda in recent memory, causing hundreds of millions of dollars in damage and leaving most of the islands without electricity. Fabian killed 4 people, the first storm to cause deaths on the islands since 1926. Ernesto became a hurricane on Wednesday after leaving Puerto Rico as a tropical storm, where it battered the island with heavy rainfall. Images and video from the island showed flood waters covering roadways, downed power lines and destroyed homes and vehicles. As of Thursday afternoon, some 407,000 homes and businesses - about a quarter of all customers on the U.S. territory - remained without electricity, according to LUMA Energy, the Caribbean island's main power supplier. LUMA said it had restored power to 300,000 customers. Vanessa Toro, a San Juan resident who lost electricity early on Wednesday morning, said she was frustrated that she was still without power even though the storm itself had little impact on her area. "If the event had been of a large magnitude, one understands the situation a little more, but this storm was not catastrophic," she said. "Then LUMA says it is prepared to deal with these situations, but we are without power 29 hours after the storm." LUMA Chief Executive Juan Saca said in a radio interview on Thursday morning he expected power to be restored to many customers later on Thursday. Puerto Rico's power grid is notoriously fragile. In 2022, Hurricane Fiona knocked out power for about 80% of the island's homes and businesses for as long as a month. Five years earlier, Hurricanes Irma and Maria destroyed the island's power grid and caused outages in some areas that lasted nearly a year. Ernesto was expected to stay well west of the U.S. East Coast as it traveled north over the ocean. However, the storm was forecast to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents across the region, the center said. Ernesto is the fifth named Atlantic storm of what is expected to be an intense hurricane season. Slow-moving Debby hit Florida's Gulf Coast as a Category 1 hurricane just last week before soaking some parts of the Carolinas with up to 2 feet (60 cm) of rain..
Hurricane Ernesto ramps up to Category 2 as it churns towards Bermuda, poses dangers for coastal US | CNN — Ernesto is delivering a blow to Bermuda and is ramping up coastal danger for much of the United States’ Eastern Seaboard after it thrashed Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, leaving hundreds of thousands of people without power. Powerful winds from the large Category 2 hurricane extend hundreds of miles from its center and started to thrash Bermuda with strong gusts Friday afternoon, well before making its closest pass to the island Saturday. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Ernesto’s strength late this week was fueled by the extremely warm waters of the Atlantic — a phenomenon that’s becoming more frequent in a world warming due to fossil fuel pollution — but dry air interacting with the system prevented explosive strengthening. The center of the hurricane will track near or over Bermuda on Saturday, but drenching rain and tropical storm-force wind gusts were already underway Friday over the tiny island, which is about a third of the size of Washington, DC. The Bermuda International Airport reported tropical storm-force conditions with sustained winds of 41 mph with a gust to 63 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. As of around 5 p.m. ET, Ernesto was centered around 125 miles south-southwest of the island, moving to the northeast at 13 mph. The storm is expected to slow down tonight and the center should pass near or over Bermuda early Saturday morning. Conditions will continue to deteriorate this evening and hurricane-force winds are expected to begin around midnight EDT, lasting until around midday Saturday. Tropical storm conditions will continue beyond that, lasting into Saturday evening. More powerful winds and torrential rainfall will likely arrive late Friday or early Saturday. Ernesto could unload 6 to 12 inches of rain over the island through Saturday night, with potential for isolated totals to approach 15 inches. “This may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding,” the National Hurricane Center warned Thursday. Dangerous storm surge and significant coastal flooding will also unfold as Ernesto makes its closest approach to the island Saturday. Ernesto will have wide-reaching impacts despite remaining so far from large land masses. The hurricane will create massive waves — perhaps up to 40 feet high — in the open Atlantic that will spread hundreds of miles away. These elevated wave heights will bring rough seas and dangerous rip currents to the US East Coast, the Bahamas and parts of the Caribbean into early next week. For a majority of the US Atlantic coast, the most dangerous coastal conditions will unfold over the weekend, coinciding with the time many people flock to the beach. Ernesto “will result in very dangerous rip currents (Saturday and Sunday),” the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey, warned Thursday. Rip currents can exhaust even the strongest swimmers and turn deadly. At least 29 people have been killed in rip currents this year in the US and its territories, according to the National Weather Service. Beyond Bermuda, Ernesto will pass close to Atlantic Canada early next week and potentially bring some rain, wind and rough seas. Outages linger after Ernesto Ernesto’s center never made landfall over Puerto Rico or the US Virgin Islands but the system’s strong winds still knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of people in total. In Puerto Rico, about half of all customers on the island were at one point without power Wednesday, according to LUMA Energy, the private company that operates the transmission and distribution of power in Puerto Rico. By Friday morning, more than 200,000 were still in the dark. In the US Virgin Islands, just over 10,000 customers were still without power Friday morning, about 20% of the island’s tracked customers, according to PowerOutage.us. Heavy rain soaked the Virgin Islands late Tuesday and Wednesday. More than half a foot of rain drenched much of Puerto Rico and caused widespread flash flooding. Some locations recorded nearly a foot of rain from Ernesto: Just over 10 inches of rain fell over a 24-hour period in the mountain town of Barranquitas, according to a preliminary weather service report, while Villalba saw around 9.5 inches.
Hurricane “Ernesto” expected to hit Bermuda with dangerous storm surge and flash flooding - Bermuda is bracing for potentially life-threatening conditions as Category 2 Hurricane “Ernesto” approaches the island, bringing strong winds, dangerous storm surges, and severe flooding starting Friday, August 16, 2024.
- On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday morning (LT), August 17.
- Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge on Bermuda starting this afternoon through Saturday night, August 17. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
- Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact Bermuda through this weekend and will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island.
- Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the weekend. Beachgoers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
- Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
Bermuda is expected to experience strong winds, dangerous storm surges, and life-threatening flooding as Category 2 Hurricane Ernesto approaches on Friday.)A few days ago, Ernesto impacted the Caribbean as a strong tropical storm. Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands experienced flash flooding, water rescues, power outages, and infrastructure damage due to the storm.“While Bermuda has been fortunate in recent years to avoid the worst impacts of hurricanes, we must take each storm seriously and prepare accordingly,” said Bermuda’s Minister of National Security, Hon. Michael Weeks, JP, MP, during a news conference.“As I’ve said before, it only takes one storm to cause significant damage and disrupt our way of life,” he added. Weeks warned that Ernesto’s winds, rain, and flooding would likely result in power outages across the islands.According to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), as of 15:00 UTC, the center of Hurricane “Ernesto” was located 345 km (215 miles) SSW of Bermuda.The hurricane is moving north-northeast at approximately 22 km/h (14 mph) with maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h (100 mph). This movement is expected to continue while gradually slowing down until Saturday, August 17.A faster northeastward motion is anticipated late in the weekend, with the center of Ernesto expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday morning.
Tropical Storm “Maria” makes landfall in Japan bringing record-breaking rainfall - Tropical Storm “Maria” made landfall in Japan’s Iwate Prefecture at 08:30 local time (LT) on Monday, August 12, 2024, bringing record-breaking rainfall to the affected regions. Tropical Storm “Maria” made landfall in Japan’s Iwate Prefecture at 23:30 UTC on August 11 (08:30 LT on August 12), according to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The system is forecast to cross the Tohoku region, move into the Sea of Japan, and turn into a subtropical cyclone through August 13. Its influence is likely to continue through August 14. Maria had a central pressure of 990 hPa and maximum 10-minute wind speeds of 90 km/h (55.9 mph) near the center as of 10:00 LT on Monday, according to JMA. tropical storm maria jtwc fcst track 09z august 12 2024 tropical storm maria 0800 utc on august 12 2024 himawari-9 Tropical Storm “Maria” at 08:00 UTC on August 12, 2024. Credit: JMA/Himawari-9, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers Maria brought record-breaking heavy rains in the affected regions. Kuji recorded 471.5 mm (18.57 inches) of rain in 48 hours as of 11:00 LT on Monday, which is the highest rainfall ever recorded in the city. Otsuchi Town saw 286.5 mm (11.28 inches) of rainfall during the same period, setting a new record for the town as well.
Japan narrowly avoids catastrophic impact as rare Typhoon “Ampil” skirts the Tokyo region - The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued warnings for fierce winds, high waves, and potential landslides as Typhoon “Ampil” grazed the country on August 16, 2024. The storm, currently located off the Pacific coast, has prompted evacuation orders for over 340 000 residents and led to significant disruptions in transportation and power supply. Level 4 evacuation orders were issued in the Chiba Prefecture cities of Mobara and Asahi, as well as in the city of Iwaki, Fukushima Prefecture. Level 3 advisories, encouraging the elderly and those with disabilities to evacuate, were issued in various cities in Tokyo, Chiba, Kanagawa, Ibaraki, and Fukushima prefectures. Very Strong Typhoon “Ampil” grazed the Pacific coast of Japan on August 16, disrupting major parts of the country during the peak summer holiday season. The typhoon had 10-minute sustain winds of 162 km/h (100 mph) and maximum gusts of 215 km/h (134 mph) as its eye passed about 120 km (75 miles) northeast of Hachijojima, according to the JMA. The system was moving N at 15 km/h (9 mph) and had a central atmospheric center of 950 hPa. According to the JTWC, Ampil had maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 205 km/h (127 mph) and gusts to 250 km/h (155 mph) at 06:00 UTC today.
Severe storm, torrential rains hit parts of Spain, causing widespread floods - Torrential rains swept across parts of Spain, including the Balearic Islands, on August 14 and 15, 2024, causing widespread flooding, evacuations, and flight cancellations. The Spanish Emergency Military Unit (UME) confirmed on August 15, that it had been deployed to Mallorca to assist with the crisis. The Spanish national weather agency AEMET issued a Ret alert ahead of the storm, and downgraded to an Orange alert across the region on Thursday, August 15, indicating a continued high risk of storms. Sorry, the video player failed to load.(Error Code: 101102) The island of Menorca received more than 200 mm (78 inches) of rain in less than a day — more than 10 times its average August rainfall. Regional firefighters reported that areas in central Palma de Mallorca had been cordoned off and 29 people evacuated from a train traveling between Palma and Manacor due to flooding. The Civil Guard police also reported evacuating a dozen people from the town of Soller in Mallorca.
Monsoon death toll hits 58 while excess rain damages 80 000 ha (198 000 acres) of crops in Karnataka, India - The With 58 fatalities and crop damage across 80 000 ha (198 000 acres) of agricultural land, Karnataka is experiencing above-average monsoon rains in 2024. In some regions, rainfall has exceeded the averages by 24 – 28%, and the situation may worsen as heavy rains are forecasted to resume from August 16, 2024. Karnataka has recorded 58 deaths due to “above normal” rains, which have caused extensive crop damage during this year’s monsoon, according to Karnataka Revenue Minister Krishna Byre Gowda. A total of 78 679 ha (194 396 acres) of agricultural land has been damaged statewide and horticultural crops on 2 294 ha (5 670 acres). In total, 1 201 houses have completely collapsed this season, including 75 unauthorized. Additionally, 1 176 houses have suffered severe damage, and 2 338 houses have been partially damaged. Overall, 8 000 houses have been affected, Gowda said. Gowda acknowledged that the government’s preventive measures have helped reduce the number of casualties this year compared to previous years. “Sixty-seven people had lost their lives by this time in 2019, and 75 people had died during the monsoon season in 2022. This year, 58 people have lost their lives,” he stated. The state government has promised compensation for affected farmers and homeowners, with Rs 9.21 crore (approximately $1.1 million) already paid out. The compensation includes provisions for those with unauthorized houses, with up to Rs 1 lakh (approximately $1 200) provided for damaged homes. The state has experienced significantly higher-than-normal rainfall across all regions. In the northern interior region, the average rainfall is typically 260 mm (10.2 inches), but this year it has received 322 mm (12.7 inches), which is 24% higher than normal. Similarly, the Malnad region, which typically receives 1 127 mm (44.4 inches), has recorded 1 361 mm (53.6 inches) of rainfall this year, a 21% increase. The coastal region, known for its heavy rains, has seen a 28% rise, receiving 2 947 mm (116 inches) compared to the usual 2 299 mm (90.5 inches).
Rex block shatters multiple records in Canada - Canada experienced a week of extraordinary weather, breaking multiple records for heat and rainfall across the country. A unique atmospheric pattern, known as a Rex block, caused temperatures to soar in the Arctic Circle, while remnants of Hurricane “Debby” brought torrential rains to Eastern Canada. Communities in the Northwest Territories recorded Canada’s hottest temperatures multiple times this week. Temperatures surged into the mid-30s °C (mid-90s °F) deep within the Arctic Circle, an area typically associated with much cooler temperatures. Fort Good Hope recorded a scorching 37 °C (98.6 °F), marking the highest temperature ever recorded during August in the Northwest Territories. Little Chicago, N.W.T., reached 36 °C (96.8 °F) several times, setting the highest temperature ever recorded in the region. Inuvik also experienced record heat, with temperatures soaring to 34.8 °C (94.6 °F)—nearly double the average seasonal high for early August. This intense heatwave persisted for four consecutive days, with temperatures remaining in the lower 30s °C (lower 90s °F) through the weekend. Remarkably, these temperatures were 10 °C (18 °F) higher than those recorded in the southernmost parts of Canada. While the North endured record-breaking heat, Eastern Canada faced a deluge of rain. The remnants of Hurricane “Debby” brought significant rainfall to the region, particularly in areas not typically hardest hit by such storms. Montreal experienced its wettest day on record on August 9, 2024, with 158 mm (6.2 inches) of rain falling at Montreal Airport. This surpassed the previous record of 87.6 mm (3.4 inches) set in 1880. The torrential downpour led to widespread flooding across Quebec, with many communities recording rainfall totals well over 100 mm (3.9 inches), and some nearing 200 mm (7.9 inches) by the time the storm subsided early on August 10. The unusual weather was driven by a Rex block, a rare atmospheric phenomenon where a high-pressure system becomes trapped north of a low-pressure system, causing stagnation in weather patterns. This led to extreme conditions being locked in place for several days, resulting in historic heat in the North and the unusual track of remnants of Hurricane “Debby” remnants, which brought heavy rainfall to interior sections of Eastern Canada. As the week ended, cooler air moved into southern Canada, bringing relief from the heat, while the North began to see a slight easing of temperatures.
2024 on track to become Canada’s second-worst fire season in two decades - The Wildfires are ravaging parts of Canada, with 2024 on track to become the second-worst fire season in two decades. Satellite data indicates that carbon emissions from wildfires have already exceeded the 20-year average. Reports indicate that the number of wildfires in Northern Canada has increased by 50% in the last three weeks. The number of wildfires in Northern Canada has grown by 50% over the last three weeks. These devastating fires are set to make 2024 the second most extreme fire season in the last two decades, following 2023. Satellite data analysis from Copernicus GFAS shows that this year’s wildfire carbon emissions are significantly high and have already surpassed the mean emissions from 2003 to 2023 in Canada.
Massive wildfire threatens Athens, forcing 30 000 to evacuate, Greece - A massive wildfire near Athens has forced the evacuation of over 30 000 people and burned 10 000 ha (24 710 acres) of land, with flames advancing toward the Marathon Lake. One casualty has been confirmed as the fire continues to spread due to strong winds. A wildfire broke out 35 km (22 miles) from Athens in the town of Varnavas on Sunday afternoon, August 11, 2024 and is spreading toward Marathon Lake. It has thus far burned 10 000 ha (24 710 acres) of land and forced the residents of nearly 10 villages to flee during the early hours of Monday. More than 30 000 people have been evacuated, and one casualty has been reported. The burned body of a woman was found in an industrial building in the suburb of Vrilissia. “At this time, the fire is advancing toward Marathon Lake with the forces against it being constantly reinforced, focusing on the flanks and dealing with flames that in some cases are higher than 25 m (82 feet),” said fire brigade spokesperson Vasilis Vathrakogiannis at a press conference.More than 700 firefighters have been deployed to contain the fire. Meanwhile, the Anadolu Agency reported that more than 315 firefighters, forest commando teams, 98 vehicles, and many volunteers from Moldova and Romania, along with 26 planes and helicopters, are working to extinguish the fires despite the extreme heat and strong winds.
Record temperatures spread wildfires in Greece and southern Europe - Wildfires have again taken hold this summer in Greece, Italy, Albania, Romania, Bulgaria and other south-eastern European countries. Nearly 10,000 hectares (approx. 40 square miles) of mostly forest land was burnt in northeastern Attica in a fire that erupted on August 11 in the village of Varnavas, 30km north-east of the Greek capital Athens. Aided by gale force winds and high temperatures approaching 40 degrees Celsius, a wall of flames over 25 metres high and covering a 30km radius spread south and reached Athens’ northern suburbs of Nea Penteli, Patima Halandriou and Vrilissia—just 14km away from the centre of Athens. This is the first time since 1981 that a fire has reached an urban area in the outskirts of the capital. The sky of Attica was covered with black smoke with the Hellenic Thoracic Society advising those suffering with lung and heart problems to avoid going outside. The blaze was the second largest the Attica region has experienced since 2009, when just over 13,000 hectares of forest land were burnt. Last year Greece saw the biggest fire in the European Union since 2000 when around 90,000 hectares were burnt in the Evros region of northern Greece near the land border with Turkey, resulting in the death of 18 refugees. Due to this week’s fires, thousands were evacuated including patients and staff from a children hospital and a military hospital, both near Mount Penteli. The body of a 65-year-old worker was discovered in the bathroom of a burnt out factory in Patima Halandriou, where she was seeking shelter. She had been employed at the factory for 20 years. The blaze raged for more than 40 hours with firefighters still putting out remnants of the fire three days later. It led to extensive power cuts, after at least 120 power poles were damaged. The increasing frequency of fires in Greece are the result of climate change, which has led to record high temperatures, with June and July this year the hottest since records began. Temperatures approaching and even above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) are becoming the norm during the summer in large parts of Europe. This is part of a wider trend across the continent, which is sweltering under a heatwave with fires also breaking out in Italy’s Latina Province and in the north of Portugal. Record temperatures in Spain prompted the government to declare a drought emergency with water restrictions imposed on the island of Tenerife. The Mediterranean is especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, which according to the United Nations Environment Programme is heating up 20 percent faster than the global average. In July, wildfires ripped through Albania, beginning in the south of the country and travelling north. Further fires broke out in recent weeks in Albania, Bulgaria and Sardinia. At the end of July, an elderly man in North Macedonia was killed in a forest fire burning since early July. Research by the Barcelona-based Institute for Global Health found there were more than 47,000 heat related deaths across Europe because of high temperatures last year, the warmest year on record globally and the second warmest in Europe. Greece had the worst heat related mortality rate in Europe, with 393 deaths per million compared with the European average of 88. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said: “We constantly have to become better. And from any mistakes and any fire that gets out of control we always we always have to see what we can learn and what we can do better.” The reality is that the conservative New Democracy (ND) government has learned nothing since it came to power in 2019. In the last eight years 13 major fires have burnt more than 45,000 hectares of forest land within Attica, 37 percent of the region’s total. Scientists have raised concerns about the long-term effects on the health of Attica’s inhabitants—nearly 40 percent of Greece’s total population. With only 0.96 sq. metres of green space per inhabitant, Athens already has one of the worst ratios of green spaces per capita in the world—well below the minimum of 9 square metres per capita recommended by the World Health Organisation.
Major forest fire in Izmir, Turkey forces evacuations as flames threaten residential areas - (2 videos) A rapidly spreading forest fire in Izmir, Turkey, is forcing evacuations as flames approach residential areas. Local authorities reported that strong winds and difficult terrain are hindering firefighting efforts, with the fire still raging in multiple locations since it broke out late Thursday, August 15, 2024, in the Karşıyaka district. A forest fire in Turkey’s western coastal province of Izmir is threatening residential areas, prompting evacuations. Izmir Governor Suleyman Elban confirmed that the fire, which ignited late on Thursday in the Karşıyaka district, persists in multiple locations despite ongoing efforts by firefighters. “The intervention is becoming difficult as it is very close to residential areas. There has been no loss of life so far,” said Elban. He added that winds reaching speeds of up to 80 km/h (50 mph) are hampering aerial firefighting efforts, though ground teams continue to work. The governor also said that a village had been evacuated, and some houses had reportedly burned. Local broadcasts showed images of flames consuming large swathes of land and nearing apartment buildings, while thick black smoke enveloped the sky above the forests and city areas in Karşıyaka. Meanwhile, fires in northwestern Turkey are also causing significant concern, with blazes reported in the Eceabat district of Çanakkale province, the Göynük district of Bolu province, and in Manisa province’s Gördes district. Agriculture and Forestry Minister İbrahim Yumaklı announced on Friday that the fire in Çanakkale, which was sparked by a roadside electricity pole, had been contained, and the Manisa fire was partially under control. However, efforts to extinguish the fire in Bolu were still ongoing. Yumaklı warned that the next three days pose a high risk of additional wildfires due to “high temperatures, low humidity, and strong winds.” Authorities in Çanakkale and Bolu have evacuated several neighborhoods and villages as a precaution, though they reported no immediate threat to residential areas. In the Gallipoli Peninsula, a fire broke out in the Eceabat district near the village of Büyükanafarta, leading to the closure of the 57th Regiment Memorial and Conkbayırı. “Thankfully, the fire was contained before reaching the 57th Regiment Memorial. No structures were damaged at Conkbayırı. Our efforts will continue through the night, but everything is going well so far,” said Minister Yumaklı. Bekir Karacabey, a Turkish official, shared drone footage of the wildfires in Eceabat on X. “We are intervening non-stop from land and air with the guards of Yeşil Vatan to bring the forest fire in Eceabat, Çanakkale, under control,” he posted on X. Minister Yumaklı warned that the operation over the next three days would be “extremely risky” due to the prevailing weather conditions.
Record-breaking wildfires scorch more than 1.4 million acres in Oregon, authorities say (AP) — Wildfires in Oregon have burned more acres of land in 2024 than in any year since reliable records began, authorities said Friday, with the mid-August peak of fire season still on the horizon.Blazes have scorched more than 1.4 million acres, or nearly 2,200 square miles (5,700 square kilometers), Northwest Interagency Coordination Center spokesperson Carol Connolly said. That’s more than any other year since 1992, when reliable records began to be kept, she said, and surpasses the previous record set in 2020.Connolly said 71 large fires have burned the vast majority of the land this year. Large fires are defined as those that consume more than 100 acres (40 hectares) of timber or more than 300 acres (120 hectares) of grass or brush.Thirty-two homes in the state have been lost to the fires, she said, which have been fueled by high temperatures, dry weather and low humidity.They have prompted evacuation notices across the state and largely torched rural and mountain areas, although some have also sparked closer to the Portland metro area.Level 3 “go now” evacuation notices were in place Friday for the small town of Cherry Grove, about 35 miles (56 kilometers) west of Portland, as a fire burned in nearby forest. David Huey, a deputy with the Washington County Sheriff’s Office, said most residents evacuated after officers went door to door encouraging them to leave.The fire was roughly 0.5 square miles (1.3 square kilometers) with zero containment as of Friday afternoon, although crews have made progress on lining the fire, Zoutendijk said.Another fire near the Portland suburb of Oregon City led authorities to temporarily close part of a state highway in the morning and issue “go now” evacuation orders along part of the route. By mid-afternoon, authorities downgraded the evacuation and reopened the highway.The largest blaze is the Durkee Fire in eastern Oregon, which has scorched more than 459 square miles (1,200 square kilometers) but was at least 95% contained as of Friday, according to authorities. At one point it was the biggest fire in the country.California’s Park Fire has since become the largest, burning more than 660 square miles (1,710 square kilometers) and destroying more than 600 structures. A man was arrested and accused of starting the fire by pushing a burning car into a gully in a wilderness park outside the Sacramento Valley city of Chico.Also in California, the Crozier Fire in El Dorado County has burned about 3 square miles (7.7 square kilometers) and was 5% contained as of Friday evening, according to Cal Fire. The fire is burning in steep and rugged terrain and threatens 4,017 structures. The weather is expected to remain hot and dry through the weekend.Some of the fires in Oregon’s previous record-worst year, 2020, were among the worst natural disasters in the state’s history. Blazes over Labor Day weekend killed nine people, burned more than 1,875 square miles (4,860 square kilometers) and destroyed thousands of homes and other structures.
Wildfire Roundup: Fire burning across Oregon, SW Washington - Here’s everything you need to know about wildfires burning in Oregon and southwest Washington.
Williams Mine Fire:
- Estimated to be about 10,968 acres
- 0% contained
- Located about 3.5 miles northwest of Trout Lake, Washington
- Caused by lightning on Aug. 5
- Level 3 “Go Now” and Level 2 “Be Set” evacuations are in effect for the community of Trout Lake. An evacuation center is located at 1455 NW Bruin County Road, White Salmon. Evacuations are coordinated through the Klickitat County Sheriff’s Office and the Skamania County Sheriff’s Office.
- Evacuation map for Williams Mine Fire (8/12)(Oregon Department of Forestry):
Lane 1 Fire:
- Estimated at 22,998 acres
- 21% contained
- Caused by lightning
- A Level 3 “Go Now” evacuation notice is in effect for the Bohemia Mining District and Fairview Peak. A Level 1 “Be Ready” evacuation notice has been issued by the Lane County Sheriff’s Department for areas east of Disston, starting at Brice Creek Road milepost 0.7 and following Brice Creek Road south. An evacuation map can be found here.
Elk Lane Fire:
- 5,176 acres
- 91% contained
- Started by lightning on Aug. 4
- All evacuation zones were removed on Monday, according to the Jefferson County Sheriff’s Office.
Whisky Creek Fire:
- 1,750 acres
- Started on July 20, about 6 miles southeast of Cascade Locks
- Determined to be human caused
Sandstone Fire:
- 602 acres
- Caused by lightning on Aug. 5
- Located about 9 miles southwest of Ripplebrook
Wildfire near California-Nevada border cuts power in Truckee and closes portion of I-80 -- A roughly 500-acre wildfire near the California-Nevada border forced utility companies to preemptively cut power to tens of thousands of customers in Truckee and North Lake Tahoe, authorities said. The Quilici Fire — which was subsequently renamed the Gold Ranch Fire on Monday — near Verdi in Washoe County, Nev., also forced evacuations and prompted the closure of eastbound Interstate 80 at Gold Ranch, with traffic diverted at Highway 267 in Truckee, authorities said. NV Energy’s website showed 110 outages affecting nearly 29,000 customers, with the Truckee Donner Public Utility District experiencing a system-wide outage as of late Sunday. “NV Energy has de-energized the transmission lines that feed Truckee due to their proximity to this fire,” the utility company in Truckee said on X, formerly known as Twitter. Around 9 p.m., the utility company said “All of TDPUD’s system remains without power, as well as much of North Lake Tahoe.” Authorities said the blaze started when a vehicle fire spread to vegetation east of I-80 near Verdi. Cal Trans said the freeway closure was expected to last until 6 a.m. Monday. The fire also prompted evacuations in the Quilici Ranch Road area, the Washoe County Sheriff’s Office said on X. An evacuation center was set up at the Northwest Reno Library, at 2325 Robb Drive. “Progress being made” on the fire, the Truckee Fire Protection District said on X just after 8 p.m.
Firefighters Gain 40% Containment of California's Fourth-Largest Wildfire on Record (AP) — California's largest wildfire so far this year was 40% contained Wednesday after scorching more than 670 square miles (1,735 square kilometers). The massive Park Fire was allegedly started by arson on July 24 in a wilderness park outside the Central Valley city of Chico and spread northward with astonishing speed in hot and dry conditions, becoming California's fourth-largest wildfire on record.“There was minimal fire activity through the night,” Cal Fire said in its morning summary. “Firefighters are currently working on mop-up and tactical patrol operations to work towards containment and to prepare communities to be safe for repopulations.” A large portion of the fire is within Lassen National Forest, where officials said it was remaining inside its existing perimeter. Weather has been more favorable recently, with increases in relative humidity, the moisture that can help suppress fire. More than 5,400 firefighters remained assigned to the blaze. The fire primarily impacted two counties, Butte and Tehama, destroying 641 structures and damaging 52, according to Cal Fire. An arson case is pending against a Chico man who was arrested after a burning car was seen being pushed into a gully, according to the Butte County district attorney's office. Other large fires currently burning in California have significant levels of containment, except for a blaze that erupted Aug. 9 in Six Rivers National Forest in the state's northwest corner. The Boise Fire, named for a local creek, covered more than 11 square miles (28 square kilometers) Wednesday with zero containment.
2024 sees Southern California’s highest M4+ earthquake count since 1988, return to long-term average - Since 1932, Southern California has averaged 10 – 12 M4 earthquakes annually. However, in the last 20 years, this number dropped to around 5 per year. In 2024, with 13 M4s already recorded, the region is seeing a return to its long-term average. Southern California is experiencing a significant increase in seismic activity this year, with two notable M4+ earthquakes occurring in the past week alone. A M4.4 earthquake struck near Highland Park on Monday, August 12, 2024, shaking areas across Los Angeles, Orange, and Riverside counties. This followed an M5.2 quake centered near Bakersfield, felt across the region less than a week prior. 2024 is on track to be one of the most active years for earthquakes in Southern California since 1988, according to Dr. Lucy Jones, a seismologist with the California Institute of Technology. “2024 has had more [M4+] earthquakes than any year we’ve seen since 1988,” Jones said in an interview with KTLA 5 Morning News on August 13. According to Jones, Southern California has already experienced 13 earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 or greater this year, a sharp increase compared to the annual average of five such quakes over the past 20 years. “Just remember that the last 20 years have been quiet and we should be expecting in the long run to see more than we have recently,” Jones said.
Sulfur dioxide emissions rise as magma nears surface at White Island, New Zealand - An increase in sulfur dioxide emissions, alongside minor eruptions observed on August 11, 2024, suggests the presence of shallow magma beneath the White Island volcano in New Zealand. The Volcanic Alert Level remains at Level 3 since August 9, with continued monitoring under difficult weather conditions. A marked increase in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, detected by the TROPOMI satellite, and minor volcanic eruptions at White Island volcano in Bay of Plenty, New Zealand, over the weekend suggest the presence of magma in the shallow subsurface system, according to GNS Duty Volcanologist Ery Hughes on August 12, 2024. This is the first satellite-detected sulfur dioxide emission since the volcanic activity resumed in May 2024. Weather conditions permitting, a gas observation flight will be conducted to confirm these findings. This shallow magma could result in high-temperature gas venting and may sustain regular eruptive activity. Currently, the eruptions are minor, with the hazards confined mainly to the island. There is no immediate evidence suggesting that the volcanic activity will increase in magnitude. On August 11, GeoNet reported a continuous plume of volcanic ash to the west of the volcano, but the plume appeared to be low in volcanic ash concentrations, representing a low likelihood of impacting land.
Increased volcanic gas emissions detected from new vent at White Island volcano, New Zealand - White Island’s volcanic activity has intensified with increased gas emissions from a new vent, confirmed during a monitoring flight on August 14, 2024. GeoNet reported the findings on August 16, noting that while volcanic ash concentrations have risen, the likelihood of impact on the mainland remains very low. New Zealand’s White Island volcano has shown a marked increase in volcanic gas emissions from a new source vent, confirmed during a gas monitoring flight conducted on August 14 and reported by GeoNet’s Duty Volcanologist, Ery Hughes on August 16. The new vent, approximately 10 – 15 m (33 – 50 feet) across, is actively releasing both gas and minor volcanic ash. The Volcanic Alert Level remains at 3 (indicating a minor eruption), and the Aviation Color Code remains at Orange. Satellite data from the Wellington Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (NZ MetService) also indicates a modest increase in volcanic ash within the plume since August 9. The ash concentrations are low, and the plume has been tracked extending tens of kilometers from White Island, reaching altitudes up to 2 000 m (6 500 feet) under calm conditions. Despite the increase in activity, the likelihood of ash reaching the mainland remains very low. The observations from the gas flight are consistent with satellite imagery and data from GeoNet’s webcams located in Whakatāne and Te Kaha. Initial analysis of a small ash sample collected during the flight suggests that the ash is derived from a shallow magma source, indicating that magma is close to the surface and is contributing to the current activity.
Violent eruption at Etna volcano, Italy - Another phase of intense strombolian activity started at Etna’s Voragin crater during the afternoon hours of August 14, 2024, and over the next couple of hours evolved into violent lava fountaining — the 6th paroxysm at the volcano since July 4 when the series started. INGV’s Etna Observatory reported a sudden increase in volcanic tremor toward high values was observed at 15:00 UTC on August 14, located east of the Voragine crater at an altitude of 3 km (1.8 miles), resulting in a new episode of Strombolian activity. This activity followed a gradual increase from low to medium values over the past 7 days. As a result, the Aviation Color Code was raised from Orange to Red at 17:16 UTC. In an update posted at 23:02 UTC, the observatory reported strong strombolian activity observed over the past couple of hours has transitioned into sustained lava fountaining, generating an ash plume, which, according to the forecast model, was dispersing toward the ESE. Ashfall has been reported in the localities of Piano Vetore, Nicolosi, and Ragalna, with light ashfall also observed in Catania. Additionally, the lava fountaining was observed feeding a lava flow from the western rim of the Bocca Nuova crater. Infrasonic activity has also significantly intensified, both in terms of event frequency and amplitude, with sources localized at the Voragine crater. While the GNSS network data did not show significant ground deformation, the clinometric network indicated slight tilting at the summit stations CPN and PDN, with recorded variations of 1.5 and 0.4 mrad, respectively. This marked the beginning of 6th paroxysmal eruptive episode at Etna since the series started on July 4, 2024. The episode began to wane around 00:30 UTC on August 15 and ceased by approximately 01:20 UTC. The lava fountain generated an eruptive plume that, during its peak intensity, reached an altitude of about 9.5 km (31 200 feet) above sea level and was primarily dispersed towards the SSW and ESE sectors. Pyroclastic fallout was reported in the localities of Piano Vetore, Nicolosi, Ragalna, and Pedara, with light ashfall also noted in Catania. The lava fountain also produced lava overflows from the western rim of the Bocca Nuova crater.
Chinese rocket breakup creates large field of space debris in low Earth orbit - The upper stage of a Chinese Long March 6A rocket fragmented into over 700 pieces in low Earth orbit following its launch on August 6, 2024, as confirmed by U.S. Space Command on August 8, posing a significant threat to orbital safety. A Chinese Long March 6A rocket’s upper stage has fragmented into over 700 pieces in low Earth orbit (LEO), creating a significant risk to orbital safety. The incident occurred following the rocket’s launch on August 6, from the Taiyuan spaceport, which carried 18 Qianfan (“Thousand Sails”) satellites to an 800 km (497 miles) altitude polar orbit. The rocket’s upper stage, modified to deploy multiple satellites, was initially detected to have created a debris field of at least 50 pieces on August 7, according to Slingshot Aerospace, a space-tracking and data analytics firm. LeoLabs, a company monitoring low Earth orbit, later reported that its radar data indicated “at least 700 debris fragments and potentially more than 900.” This debris cloud is aligned with the plane of the 18 deployed satellites, which could pose long-term problems for orbital safety. The debris field created at an altitude of approximately 800 km (497 miles) will persist for several years according to Leo Labs. The Long March 6A rocket, developed by the state-owned Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology (SAST), has a dry mass of approximately 5 800 kg (12 787 pounds) and has flown seven times since its debut launch in March 2022. U.S. Space Command confirmed that the rocket had broken up on August 8, tracking over 300 pieces of debris from the incident. Neither SAST, the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), nor the China National Space Administration (CNSA) have said anything about the incident. This was the second time a Long March 6A upper stage has broken up in orbit, with a previous event in November 2022 resulting in 533 cataloged fragments by January 2023. The European Space Agency’s Space Debris Office estimated that there have been more than 640 break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events in space, contributing to the growing problem of space debris. The office estimates that there are approximately 40 500 objects greater than 10 cm (3.9 inches), 1 100 000 objects between 1 cm (0.4 inches) and 10 cm, and 130 million objects from 1 mm to 1 cm (0.04 inches to 0.4 inches) currently orbiting Earth. “What we are seeing now is there are over 1 100 predicted conjunctions of less than 5 km (3.1 miles) miss distances over the next three days,” said Audrey Schaffer, vice president of strategy at Slingshot Aerospace, adding that about a third of these objects are active spacecraft capable of maneuvering to avoid collisions. The rest are uncontrollable pieces of space debris, raising concerns about potential cascading collisions. “Frankly, it’s disappointing that the rocket had the same issue again. These kinds of debris-generating events that are potentially avoidable should not occur anymore,” Schaffer added. The August 6 launch was significant as it was the first deployment for a planned low Earth orbit communications mega constellation known as G60, or Qianfan. Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST), the company behind the Qianfan constellation, plans to launch over 14 000 satellites. SSST has not responded to requests for comment regarding the recent rocket breakup.
Melting permafrost releasing mercury into Alaska's Yukon River: Study -More than 3 million of those individuals reside in areas where permafrost is expected to disappear entirely by 2050, the researchers noted. “There could be this giant mercury bomb in the Arctic waiting to explode,” said co-author Josh West, professor of Earth sciences and environmental studies at the University of Southern California, in a statement. Earth’s natural atmospheric circulation tends to transport pollutants to higher latitude, resulting in a northbound buildup of mercury — which then moves from air to ground to water, West explained. “A lot of mercury pollution ends up in the Arctic,” he said. “Permafrost has accumulated so much mercury that it could dwarf the amount in the oceans, soils, atmosphere and biosphere combined.” Arctic plants that absorb mercury ultimately die and become part of the soil, freezing into permafrost. Once that soil starts thawing, however, it discharges the highly concentrated mercury into the environment. While previous methods of assessing mercury levels have involved sampling cores from the top 10 feet of permafrost, the researchers decided to dig deeper — into riverbank and sandbar sediments. “The river can quickly mobilize large amounts of sediment containing mercury,” lead author Isabel Smith, a doctoral candidate at USC Dornsife, said in a statement. The researchers concluded that because the levels they detected were consistent with past estimates, this new measurement technique could constitute a reliable gauge for mercury content. Although the mercury accumulation doesn’t pose an acute threat to residents today, the risks stand to increase over time and will primarily impact fish and game consumption, the authors noted. Mercury deposits may also fluctuate, as the river both mobilizes mercury-laced sediments and redeposits them onto sandbars and beaches, according to the study. “Decades of exposure, especially with increasing levels as more mercury is released, could take a huge toll on the environment and the health of those living in these areas,” Smith said.
Project 2025 video calls for elimination of climate change references -A training video associated with Project 2025 — a controversial playbook for a future conservative presidency by the right-wing Heritage Foundation — calls for eliminating references to climate change across the federal government. The video was published online this weekend by news outlets ProPublica and Documented, shared with the news outlets by a person who had access to them. ProPublica and Documented reported the clip was part of Project 2025’s Presidential Administration Academy, which seeks to prepare future political appointees to be part of a conservative administration. In the climate-related video, Bethany Kozma, who was deputy chief of staff at the U.S. Agency for International Development during the Trump administration, said: “If the American people elect a conservative president, his administration will have to eradicate climate change references from absolutely everywhere.” Kozma added that climate change has “infiltrated” every part of the federal government and connected it to “population control.” A Heritage Foundation spokesperson referred The Hill to the climate section of its publicly available document detailing its playbook, which similarly denounces what it describes as climate “alarmism” and “fanaticism” in the government. The think tank’s project has come under fierce scrutiny, with Democrats attempting to link the effort to former President Trump’s campaign, noting many former Trump administration officials have been affiliated with it. The sweeping proposal calls for changes ranging from rescinding the federal approval for abortion medication to criminalizing pornography. Trump, however, has distanced himself from Project 2025, saying “I wish them luck, but I have nothing to do with them.” The Heritage Foundation has publicly posted an agenda for its project online. The public portions call for the “break up” of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and for much of its climate change research to be “disbanded.”Trump himself has incorrectly referred to climate change as a “hoax” and reports during his tenure indicated that climate change references had been removed or downplayed on various federal web pages.
Long-duration X1.1 solar flare erupts from geoeffective Region 3784, CME produced - A major, long-duration solar flare measuring X1.1 erupted from a large, geoeffective Active Region 3784 at 06:40 UTC on August 14, 2024. The event started at 06:00 and ended at 07:08 UTC. This event was associated with a Type II Radio Emission (estimated velocity 223 km/s) and a Type IV emission, suggesting a strong coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Additionally, a 10cm Radio Burst lasting 14 minutes and with peak flux of 500 sfu was registered from 06:41 to 06:55 UTC. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. Radio emissions were forecast to be most degraded over East Africa, Middle East, Asia, and the Indian Ocean at the time of the flare. The location of this region, at the center of the solar disk, suggests an Earth-directed CME was produced. Region 3784 has ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic configuration and is capable of producing more major eruptions in the days ahead. Additional Earth-directed CMEs are possible from this region.
G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm following multiple CME impacts - A G3 – Strong geomagnetic storming was observed on August 12, 2024, following multiple impacts from coronal mass ejections (CMEs) produced since August 7. The solar wind environment was enhanced over the past 24 hours, due to persistent CME effects from the likely arrival of the CMEs produced on August 7, followed by the arrival of a CME associated with the X1.3 solar flare on August 8. The total field reached 21 nT, Bz saw a maximum southward deflection to -15 nT, and wind speeds peaked at 539 km/s. Phi was in a mostly negative orientation through 13:20 UTC on August 11 UTC when it switched into a positive position through the remainder of the period, SWPC forecasters said at 00:30 UTC today. Geomagnetic K-index of 5 (G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm) threshold was reached at 08:35 UTC on August 11 and continued at active to G1 levels through 00:56 UTC on August 12 when G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storming was observed. G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm conditions (Geomagnetic K-index of 7) were observed at 05:28 UTC and again at 08:11 UTC today. A G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm can primarily affect areas poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. It may cause power system voltage irregularities and trigger false alarms in protection devices. Spacecraft might experience surface charging, increased drag, and orientation issues. GPS navigation could be intermittently disrupted, leading to signal loss and increased range errors. HF radio communications might also be affected. As a result, red aurora was observed as far south as Nevada, U.S. With the Perseid meteor shower peaking at this time, some of the photographers made lucky shots showing both:
Rare, severe geomagnetic storm hits Earth: Will it impact the grid? – Geomagnetic storm conditions observed over the weekend strengthened Monday morning, creating a “major disturbance in Earth’s magnetic field,” the Space Weather Prediction Center said. The storm reached a G4 level in strength — the second-highest on the scale, classified as “severe” — just before 11 a.m. Eastern Time. The geomagnetic storm conditions may continue into the evening as solar flaring continues, forecasters said. “Severe levels is pretty extraordinary,” Shawn Dahl, service coordinator at SWPC, said in a media briefing earlier this year. “It’s a very rare event to happen.” At the G4 level, impacts on our infrastructure are possible. When coronal mass ejections (which are basically explosions of plasma and magnetic material from the sun) reach Earth, they carry with them their own magnetic field, explained Robert Steenburgh, a space scientist at SWPC. “When you superimpose that over long conductors, things like pipelines, and railroad tracks and power lines, it can induce current — and that’s electrical current that’s not supposed to be there,” he said. The interference could cause issues with the power grid because of voltage control problems. There also could be issues with radio communications and satellite operations, and GPS navigation may be less accurate or spotty. The SWPC activated a hotline Monday to keep power grid operators informed on the latest space weather activity, allowing them to implement measures that help avoid disruptions. There shouldn’t be major issues with ATMs, cell phones or other technology people depend upon — unless power outages occur, which would obviously affect your ability to use plugged-in devices and home internet. While geomagnetic storms reaching G4 strength have been known to bring the northern lights to much of the country — at times as far south as Alabama and northern California — it’s unlikely we’ll experience that as part of this activity. The SWPC believes the CME passages will weaken and conditions will decline as Monday goes on. That means that by the time the sky is dark enough for those in the U.S. to see the aurora, they most likely won’t be there.
20-year study reveals significant ozone depletion due to decades of solar proton events - The Watchers --A comprehensive study led by Grigoriy Doronin, using data from NASA’s Aura MLS and NOAA’s SWPC, examined mesospheric ozone depletion due to solar proton events (SPEs) over the past two decades. The study, which ran from 2004 to 2024, demonstrated the considerable impact of high-energy protons from the Sun on ozone levels, indicating notable changes in depletion patterns across the northern and southern hemispheres.
- The study sought to quantify the impacts of solar proton events on mesospheric ozone, and found up to 85% depletion in the northern hemisphere and up to 73% in the southern hemisphere, notably during the winter months. The purpose was to understand better how different proton flow intensities affect ozone levels and to improve atmospheric monitoring and forecasting.
- The study examined data from 2004 to 2024, concentrating on global mesospheric ozone, with a particular emphasis on polar regions. Scientists used superimposed epoch analysis on Aura MLS data to examine ozone concentrations before, during, and after SPEs, revealing considerable depletion and 9 to 10-day recovery intervals between hemispheres.
A team of researchers led by Grigoriy Doronin undertook a detailed investigation into mesospheric ozone depletion. Their research, which used data from NASA’s Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the National Weather Service’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), covers two decades of solar proton events (SPE).The research that spanned from 2004 to 2024 sheds light on the consequences of solar proton events on mesospheric ozone levels.The study discovered that SPEs, which are bursts of high-energy protons from the Sun, can cause significant ozone depletion in the mesosphere, especially during the winter months. Using Aura MLS data, the scientists conducted overlaid epoch analysis to determine how differing proton flux intensities (moderate vs. strong) affect ozone concentrations. Their findings indicate that ozone destruction varies across the northern and southern hemispheres, with considerable depletion detected at altitudes of around 76 km (0.02 hPa pressure level). Over the 20 years that the research spanned through, the SPEs that were analyzed included those that occurred from September to March and from April to August, addressing seasonal variations in ozone depletion. The study gives forth a detailed temporal analysis of ozone levels before, during, and after these events. Solar proton events are known to disrupt the chemistry of the atmosphere, particularly in the mesosphere. High-energy protons from the sun interact with the Earth’s atmosphere, forming reactive chemicals such as HOx and NOx. These chemicals provide a considerable contribution to ozone destruction.
Almost Nobody Is Buying Green Hydrogen -- Hydrogen has had plenty of hype as a carbon-free fuel. From the deserts of Australia and Namibia to the wind-blasted straits of Patagonia, companies and governments worldwide plan to build almost 1,600 plants to make it. There’s only one problem: the vast majority of those projects don’t have a single customer stepping up to buy the fuel.
Why Almost Nobody Is Buying Hydrogen, Dashing Green Power Hopes - The vast majority of projects don’t have a single customer stepping up to buy the fuel.Hydrogen’s potential as a carbon-free fuel has provoked no end of excitement. From the deserts of Australia and Namibia to the wind-blasted straits of Patagonia, companies and governments worldwide plan to build almost 1,600 plants to make it. The gas can be produced cleanly by using wind- or solar-powered electricity in a process that splits the molecule from water. There’s only one problem: The vast majority of those projects don’t have a single customer stepping up to buy the fuel. Among the handful with some kind of fuel purchase agreement, most have vague, nonbinding arrangements that can be quietly discarded if the potential buyers back out. As a result, many of the projects now touted with great fanfare by countries vying to become “the Saudi Arabia of hydrogen” will likely never get built. Just 12% of hydrogen plants considered low-carbon because they avoid natural gas or mitigate emissions have customers with agreements to use the fuel, according to BloombergNEF. "No sane project developer is going to start producing hydrogen without having a buyer for it, and no sane banker is going to lend money to a project developer without reasonable confidence that someone’s going to buy the hydrogen,” says BNEF analyst Martin Tengler. It’s easy to understand why hydrogen boosters see such potential. The molecule may be essential for the world to reach net-zero carbon emissions in the fight against climate change. When burned in a turbine or fed through a fuel cell, it generates energy without spewing greenhouse gases into the air. Almost all of it used today is stripped from natural gas, but producing it from water and renewables gives off no carbon at all. Many analysts see no other way to decarbonize steel, maritime shipping and other industries that can’t easily run on electricity. BNEF predicts we’ll need to use 390 million tons of hydrogen per year worldwide in 2050 to eliminate carbon emissions from the global economy, more than four times the amount used today. But it’s not a simple switch. Most of the businesses that could run on hydrogen would need expensive new equipment to use it, a leap they’re reluctant to make. Hydrogen produced using clean energy costs four times as much as hydrogen made from natural gas, according to BNEF. And it’s hard to build the infrastructure to supply hydrogen — not just plants to make it but pipelines to move it — when the demand may not materialize for years."It’s no different than any other energy development at scale. Natural gas pipelines didn’t get built without customers,” says Laura Luce, chief executive officer of Hy Stor Energy. Her company has an exclusive letter of intent to supply hydrogen to an iron mill that Sweden’s SSAB SA plans to build in Mississippi.Countries with the potential to generate abundant renewable power, such as Chile with wind and Australia and Egypt with solar, have announced grand goals to make the fuel, often for export. More than 360 plants have been announced in China alone, according to BNEF. In the U.S. the industry and the Biden administration continue to haggle over the requirements for claiming hydrogen tax credits under federal law. Projects intended for export, meanwhile, face additional hurdles. Unlike natural gas or oil, a global system for shipping hydrogen doesn’t yet exist. Transporting hydrogen requires supercooling it, compressing it or carrying it in another, more manageable form such as ammonia, which combines hydrogen with nitrogen.
EPA Investigating Used Cooking Oil Import Authenticity - Farm Policy News -- Reuters’ Leah Douglas reported Wednesday that “the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has launched investigations into the supply chains of at least two renewable fuel producers amid industry concerns that some may be using fraudulent feedstocks for biodiesel to secure lucrative government subsidies.”“EPA spokesperson Jeffrey Landis told Reuters that the agency has launched audits over the past year, but declined to identify the companies targeted because the investigations are ongoing,” Douglas reported. “The production of biodiesel from sustainable ingredients, like used cooking oil, can earn refiners a slew of state and federal environmental and climate subsidies, including tradable credits under a program administered by the EPA called the Renewable Fuel Standard. But fears have been mounting that some supplies labeled as used cooking oil are actually cheaper and less sustainable virgin palm oil, a product that is associated with deforestation and other environmental damage.” Bloomberg’s Kim Chipman and Jennifer A Dlouhy reported Wednesday that “an EPA spokesperson described the inspections as part of ‘routine evaluation of compliance’ with US biofuel policy. ‘EPA has conducted inspections of renewable fuel producers which include, among others, an evaluation of the locations that used cooking oil used in renewable fuel production was collected,’ the agency said in an emailed statement. The agency declined to elaborate or identify producers.”“It’s not clear if the EPA has a presumption about possible fraud taking place, which includes suspicion that UCO from Asia may not be authentic and instead is mixed with fresh vegetable oils, such as palm, potentially distorting commodity values and undermining US biofuel laws,” Chipman and Dlouhy reported.Bloomberg’s Kim Chipman reported at the end of June that “a flood of used cooking oil from China and elsewhere is prompting US senators to question whether some of the shipments meant to supply the biofuel market may be fraudulent.”“Six senators, including Republican Joni Ernst of Iowa and Democrat Sherrod Brown of Ohio, sent the Biden administration a letter asking what steps were being taken to ensure that imports of the oil, known as UCO, do not contain virgin vegetable oil,” Chipman wrote. “Imports have surged from less than 200 million pounds a year in 2020 to more than 3 billion pounds last year, according to the June 20 letter.”Then in late July, Progressive Farmer’s Chris Clayton reported that “a bipartisan group of U.S. senators wants the Biden administration to ensure the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit doesn’t go to biofuels using imported feedstocks such as used cooking oil from China or ethanol from Brazil.”“The latest letter from U.S. senators comes amidst a surge in imports of Chinese used cooking oil being used to produce biofuels and displacing the use of domestic feedstocks in the process,” Clayton reported. “The senators warn that a poorly crafted 45Z rule will hurt American farmers, undermine the American biofuel industry’s competitiveness, and undercut American energy independence.” “‘Growing imports of foreign feedstock such as used cooking oil and animal fats to produce biofuels are a serious concern for U.S. soybean farmers. This new supply of feedstock directly impacts soybean oil prices and is contributing to declining margins for farmers and fuel producers. If record imports continue, foreign feedstocks could displace the oil from nearly 990,000 soybean acres in Iowa and create significant market uncertainty for the rapidly expanding soybean crush industry across Iowa and the greater Midwest. We urge the Treasury Department to ensure domestic feedstocks are prioritized in U.S. biofuels tax policy to increase domestic energy security and improve rural outcomes,’ said Suzanne Shirbroun, president of the Iowa Soybean Association,” according to Clayton.Douglas reported Wednesday that “the EPA audits began after the agency updated domestic supply-chain accounting requirements in July 2023 for renewable fuel producers seeking to earn credits under the RFS, Landis said.”“‘EPA has conducted audits of renewable fuel producers since July 2023 which includes, among other things, an evaluation of the locations that used cooking oil used in renewable fuel production was collected,’ he said. ‘These investigations, however, are ongoing and we are not able to discuss ongoing enforcement investigations.'”
German Firm Looks to Export Low-Carbon U.S. LNG Backed by Renewable Natural Gas Production -- German biofuels producer Verbio SE is seeking to export renewable natural gas (RNG) from the United States as it looks to expand its North American production and partnerships with Gulf Coast LNG exporters. Map showing RNG projects in US and Canada. Verbio North American LLC, a unit of one of Europe’s largest agricultural waste processors, has asked the Department of Energy (DOE) for permission to export up to 51.75 Bcf/year of liquefied natural gas to free trade agreement (FTA) and non-FTA countries. “Verbio plans to inject its RNG from all applicable sources into the integrated natural gas pipeline grid where it will be commingled with other natural gas for transportation to, and liquefaction by, LNG facilities located on the U.S. Gulf Coast,” Verbio’s counsel wrote in its application.
Battery maker plans more than 1,000 jobs, $1.4B plant to Edgecombe County -Edgecombe County is poised for an economic jolt. Industrial battery manufacturer Natron Energy is planning a high-tech plant that could bring up to 1,062 jobs to the Rocky Mount area. The company's proposed $1.4 billion facility would be one of the biggest eastern North Carolina economic development deals in recent years, and the latest to bolster the state’s roster of clean-energy companies. Officials with the state Department of Commerce publicly described the project for the first time Thursday during a special meeting of the department’s Economic Investment Committee. The committee approved an incentives package worth up to $56.3 million, which would be paid out through 2032 if the company hits hiring targets. That's in addition to $129.6 million being offered by Edgecombe, according to commerce officials. 58:37 The project is another trophy for economic developers, who have worked to lure advanced manufacturing companies, particularly those focused on renewable energy. "North Carolina is becoming the heart of the booming Battery Belt," Gov. Roy Cooper said Thursday during an event at Edgecombe Community College. "And this emerging clean energy economy means more good paying jobs in our state and more money in the pockets of families across eastern North Carolina," WRAL first reported details of the project late Wednesday. Natron plans to build the facility on a 400-acre site between Tarboro and Rocky Mount in what amounts to redemption following a major economic letdown at a site that has primed for industrial expansion. Seven years ago, Chinese tire maker Triangle Tyre said it would build a $580 million manufacturing facility at the Kingsboro site, where it planned to create about 800 jobs. At the time, state officials heralded it at the time as the biggest planned manufacturing investment in rural North Carolina. But the company ended up canceling the project in 2022, citing a change in strategy to focus on its operations in China. The withdrawal came amid a trade dispute between China and the U.S.
International Towers residents sue over Realty explosion - The Vindicator— More than 50 International Towers tenants filed a lawsuit against the nearby Realty Tower’s owner, tenant, contractor as well as a utility company and others contending they’ve been greatly harmed by being displaced for nearly two months as a result of a negligent gas explosion at Realty. The lawsuit, filed late Thursday in Mahoning County Common Pleas Court, also seeks class- action status so all International Towers tenants, about 170 in total, can receive punitive damages. Judge Maureen Sweeney was assigned the case.The lawsuit’s defendants are: YO Properties 47 LLC, Realty’s owner; LY Property Management LLC, Realty’s property manager; GreenHeart Companies, which was doing the gas-line work when the May 28 explosion occurred at the building; Enbridge Gas Ohio LLC, the area’s natural gas company; Dominion Energy LLC, which used to be the area’s gas company; and five unnamed “John Does,” who did the work for GreenHeart when the explosion happened.International Towers tenants were forced to evacuate by June 14, four days after Youngstown city officials got a structural engineering report stating all buildings within a 210-foot radius of Realty Tower, heavily damaged in the explosion, should be closed because they’re in a “collapse zone.”Since then, International Towers residents have been living in various locations, including a Boardman hotel, a retirement building and nursing homes for close to two months.The Realty demolition contractor said he expects International Towers residents to be able to return home by the end of the week of Aug. 11.The lawsuit, filed by attorney Joseph T. Joseph Jr. of Beachwood, alleges the International Towers residents “suffered personal effects such as confusion, mental anguish, undue stress, headaches, restlessness, sleeplessness and experienced significant fright, increased anxiety, panic attacks, worry, concern emotional trauma and depression, and each has suffered other damages and difficulties, including but not limited to the significant disruption of their daily lives and activities and other inconveniences.”The International Towers residents are elderly, have medical conditions and / or disabilities that require special needs, according to the lawsuit.The evacuation has caused “significant disruption that affected their daily lives and regularly scheduled routines,” the lawsuit reads. “The foregoing havoc resulted from the negligent conduct, acts, errors and / or omissions and / or failed supervision of the named defendants in their handling of the work being performed at the Realty Tower building.”YO Properties and LY Property declined Friday to comment.Andrea Stass, an Enbridge spokeswoman, also declined to comment, but said: “The National Transportation Safety Board has the lead in the Youngstown investigation, and we are committed to assisting as needed. It’s important that we let the investigators complete their work and share their findings once all the facts are known.”A June 14 preliminary report by the NTSB, which is leading the investigation, stated a four-person scrap-removal crew, engaged by GreenHeart Companies of Boardman – owned by Brian Angelili, YO Properties 47 LLC’s managing member – was working in a basement area underneath the building’s sidewalk removing old utility lines when a crew member sawed three times into a pipe mistakenly believing it to not have natural gas in it. That caused the explosion.Tom Chapman, an NTSB board member, said May 30, two days after the explosion, that a final report could take one to two years to complete.Joseph said Friday: “This explosion is a tragedy for the entire downtown community of Youngstown, Ohio. One thing common to all gas explosion disasters of this nature is negligence. These incidents are not the result of an act of God, but the result of mistakes, omissions and errors of individuals. The damage caused by that negligence is overwhelming, and the residents of the International Towers have been feeling it first-hand ever since.”
Historic Ohio storm tests FirstEnergy's resolve - As of 10 a.m. EDT on Monday, FirstEnergy Corp. continued efforts to restore power to the roughly 6,400 customers in northeast Ohio who remained without service following last week’s onslaught of severe weather and tornadoes. “This is a historic weather event for those of us in northeast Ohio,” FirstEnergy Ohio President Torrence Hinton said Friday afternoon during a press conference. “Many of us can empathize with our customers who remain without power because we, too, live and work within these local communities impacted by the storm.” Hinton said the company’s high-voltage transmission line system was severely damaged by the Aug. 6 weather event, “which typically isn’t the case for most single weather events that we experience.” New transmission lines are coming in by helicopter to replace the damaged lines, a move that saves time compared to driving the right of way for each tower, said Hinton, a utility industry veteran with 25 years under his belt who just took over his position at FirstEnergy seven weeks ago. Power will be restored to the vast majority of customers by 11:30 p.m. EDT on Aug. 14, although Hinton said as restoration efforts continue, many customers will have power restored before then. Akron, Ohio-based FirstEnergy has electric distribution companies that form one of the nation’s largest investor-owned electric systems, serving customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, West Virginia, Maryland and New York. On Aug. 8, FirstEnergy reported that power had been restored to more than 215,000 customers out of some 430,000 impacted customers of Ohio Edison and The Illuminating Company following the historic weather event on Aug. 6 in which four confirmed tornadoes having winds nearing 110 mph struck the Illuminating Company and Ohio Edison service areas. Two of those tornadoes with winds of almost 110 mph hit Cuyahoga County, Ohio, and one of them, which measured 350 yards wide, traveled a 17-mile-long path through the heavily populated area of Brookpark to Bedford. In addition, a wide area of damaging straight-line winds of 70-90 mph, known as a macroburst, struck roughly 225 square miles in Cuyahoga, Lake, and Geauga counties in Ohio. FirstEnergy said this weather event is the most impactful storm to hit The Illuminating Company service territory since July 1993, when a powerful line of thunderstorms caused power outages to approximately 300,000 of the company’s customers. “The Illuminating Company has not seen a storm event of this nature in more than 30 years,” Hinton confirmed, noting that the tornadoes brought down parts of FirstEnergy’s infrastructure that previously had withstood wind, rain, snow, and ice storms for many decades. In total, more than 627,700 customers across FirstEnergy’s footprint in Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland, and New Jersey lost power due to the storm. “Thousands of crews are working to restore power to the customers and communities affected by the tornadoes in Ohio last week. Restoration work is progressing as efficiently and safely as possible given the historic nature of the storm and the four confirmed tornadoes,” said Scott Aaronson, senior vice president of Security and Preparedness for the Edison Electric Institute (EEI). Hinton added, “We recognize that we cannot complete this [restoration] effort alone with our internal resources. That is why we immediately, as the storm was passing, initiated mutual assistance and we have mobilized a massive response team in order to assist us.” Hinton said more than 7,5000 contractors and employees of other utility partners are already on site to help restore electric service and to clear fallen trees and limbs, including lineworkers, hazard responders, damage assessors, forestry crews and other support personnel, many working 16-hour shifts. Other FirstEnergy employees also will be moved from across the company into northeast Ohio as the threat from Tropical Storm Debby passes, according to Hinton. So far, more than 350 broken poles have been identified in Ashtabula, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake and Lorain counties in Ohio, and crews are actively replacing them, along with hanging hundreds of spans of wire as part of the restoration effort. “Large, strong, mature trees were entirely uprooted and in some cases thrown into our power lines and equipment,” Hinton said. Five staging sites have been set up across the greater Cleveland area to handle the influx of outside workers and help make the restoration process more efficient, and FirstEnergy has set up more than a dozen sites to provide free water and ice to customers who remain without power. FirstEnergy said it follows a formal restoration process after severe weather, focusing on repairs that will address the largest number of customers before moving on to more isolated issues. This typically begins with transmission and substation facilities and then prioritizes critical facilities like hospitals, communications and emergency response agencies. Additionally, hundreds of isolated issues affect individual or small numbers of customers, and these are the most time-consuming because they require crews to go to each individual location to make repairs, the company said.
Ukrainian Shelling Causes Fire at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant - Ukrainian shelling started a fire at one of the cooling towers at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, according to Zaporizhzhia’s Russian-installed governor, Yevgeny Balitsky.The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said its experts stationed at the ZNPP, which has been under Russian control since February 2022, saw dark smoke rising at the plant after hearing multiple explosions. They were told by plant officials that one of the cooling towers was targeted by an alleged Ukrainian drone attack.The IAEA said there was no reported impact on nuclear safety as a result of the fire, and Balitsky said radiation levels around the plant were normal.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is claiming that the fire was started by Russians who control the plant. The ZNPP is located in the town of Enerhodar on the south bank of the Dnieper River. Russia controls the territory on the southern bank, while Ukraine controls the territory on the northern side.
Ohio opens another wildlife preservation area to fracking for oil and gas - cleveland.com --A panel of state officials on Monday sold rights to drill for oil and gas under a preserved wildlife area in Harrison County. The Oil and Gas Land Management Commission, comprised of a slate of gubernatorial appointees, sold about 85 acres underneath Keen Wildlife Area for nearly $212,000, plus 18% royalties on the oil and gas produced, to Houston-based EOG resources.
EOG Wins Contract to Frack Under OH’s Keen Wildlife Area for $212K -- Marcellus Drilling News --The Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) continues to do its job. Yesterday, the group held a meeting and awarded five contracts for drilling and fracking UNDER (not on) several state-owned lands, including a contract with EOG Resources to drill under 85 acres in Keen Wildlife Area in Washington Township, Harrison County, for $211,650 ($2,500/acre). Also of interest at yesterday’s meeting was that 40 parcels of land in Salt Fork State Park and Salt Fork Wildlife Area were removed from the committee’s agenda. Apparently, the nominating company withdrew its application for those tracts.
Texas-based energy company picked to lease Ohio Keen Wildlife Area for fracking - Ohio Capital Journal --A Texas-based energy company has been selected as the “highest and best” bidder to lease Keen Wildlife Area for fracking during Monday’s Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management meeting. Four other parts of the state in Belmont, Monroe and Harrison counties — all Ohio Department of Natural Resources and Ohio Department of Transportation properties — were also approved to be fracked by the “highest and best” bidders. These areas were approved for fracking during Monday’s meeting:
- Gulfport Appalachia, LLC had the winning bid for five parcels in Flushing Township, Belmont County for $18,666 ($6,000/acre).
- Gulfport Appalachia, LLC had the winning bid for 1.370 acres in Fisher’s Grove Park in Summit Township in Monroe County for $5,480($4,000/acre).
- Gulfport Appalachia, LLC had the winning bid for 2.846 acres gross acres in Wayne Township in Belmont County for $17,076 ($6,000/acre).
- Texas-based Tiburon Oil and Gas Ohio, LLC had the highest bid for three parcels in Somerset Township in Belmont County for $6,545 ($5,500/acre).
- EOG Resources, Inc — also based in Texas — had the highest bid for 84.66 acres in Keen Wildlife Area in Washington Township, Harrison County for $211,650 ($2,500/acre).
Fracking has been documented in over 30 states, according to the Center for Biological Diversity. The commissioners posted the nominated leasing parcels for bid on July 10 and Friday was the deadline to submit bids. Each lease agreement includes a 12.5% royalty paid to the state for production, per state law, with an additional financial incentive paid by the winning bidder to the state, according to ODNR. The lease bonuses for these nominations chosen by the committee is $47,767 for ODOT properties and $211,650 for ODNR properties, according to ODNR. Notably, 40 parcels of land in Salt Fork State Park and Salt Fork Wildlife Area were removed from the committee’s agenda last week by the nominator. These parcels were up for a vote to move forward in the bidding process. The commissioners disapproved less than an acre of land in Guernsey County from moving forward in the bidding process “due to a condition in the nomination that could render the economic benefits too low to warrant approval pursuant to Ohio Revised Code,” according to ODNR. About a dozen anti-fracking activists held up signs at the back of the room during the meeting that read “Keep parks parks not oil and gas fields,” “Enjoy don’t destroy God’s creation,” and “Hands off our parks.” The activists shouted various phrases and questions at the commissioners during the meeting including “rubber stampers,” “a place that is being fracked is no longer a wildlife area,” and “have you considered all the accidents that happen related to gas and oil?” The commissioners continued with the meeting and didn’t directly address any of the activists’ interjections. There were more than 1,400 fracking incidents associated with oil and gas wells in Ohio between 2018 and September 2023, according to FracTracker Alliance — a nonprofit that collects data on fracking pipelines.About 10% of those incidents were reported as fires or explosions. 64 of those incidents happened in Belmont County, 59 happened in Monroe County and 26 happened in Harrison County. Jenny Morgan with Save Ohio Parks said after the meeting she is fearful for Ohio’s children. “Our children need nature regularly, and they need it to be clean and healthy,” she told the Capital Journal. “I care about our environment that impacts our health and our children’s health, and we need these spaces to be clean.”
HB 562 would require fracking-chemicals disclosure in Ohio - cleveland.com - Recently, I introduced Ohio House Bill 562 requiring companies wishing to conduct fracking under our state parks to disclose the chemicals in the fluids used in the process. HB 562 aims to improve public safety and transparency, which is crucial because fracking involves injecting water, sand, and various chemicals at high pressure to extract natural gas and oil from shale rock.While fracking has the opportunity to impact Ohio’s energy independence, it has also raised substantial environmental and health concerns due to the chemicals involved. In fact, according to the FracTracker Alliance, there were over 1,400 fracking incidents in Ohio between 2018 and 2023, ranging from gas releases to fires and explosions. Studies show that states requiring the disclosure of fracking chemicals experience less pollution, fewer spills of fracking fluids, and fewer hazardous chemicals being used for fracking than states with no disclosure requirements. When taxpayers paid for our parks, there was an implicit contract made with the government that the parks would be protected for posterity so our descendants would be able to experience them in the same way that we can. Please contact your state representative and respectfully ask that they support HB 562.
Encino Energy, Vendors Donate Over $100000 to Local Nonprofits -- Marcellus Drilling News --Encino Energy, which is Ohio’s No. 1 oil producer, and its vendors, recently announced over $105,000 in donations from the 2024 Encino Vendor Charity Classic. This year’s gathering was a two-day event consisting of a clay shoot, golf outing, and awards reception. Vendors came together to sponsor the event at various levels, and proceeds went directly to local nonprofits that impact Encino’s operational area. The $105,000 in donations was split evenly between five nonprofit organizations.
6th Circ. Backs Gulfport, Antero Win In Drilling Royalty Suit – Law360 -- A divided Sixth Circuit panel has said an Ohio federal judge correctly concluded that a rival drilling company is not entitled to royalties from oil and gas wells recently drilled by Gulfport Energy Corp. and Antero Resources Corp. in the Utica Shale. .. In an unpublished opinion filed on Thursday, U.S. Circuit Judges John K. Bush and Eugene E. Siler Jr. affirmed U.S. District ...
Utica Shale Academy adds to Energy Training Center - — The Utica Shale Academy’s Energy Training Center in Salineville has added some more space to offer programming.Superintendent Bill Watson said a 50-foot by 25-foot area previously used as a drive-through for the former Huntington Bank was enclosed and will now serve diesel mechanics and heavy equipment programs. The estimated $650,000 project started in May and was completed this month through CCI Construction of Canton. Watson said costs are being defrayed through an Appalachian Regional Commission grant and capital appropriations through the state legislature.“Students will do maintenance and repairs of heavy equipment and machinery and will also gain Snap-on credentials,” Watson added. “It’s the start of a new program. We already have heavy equipment and we need diesel mechanics so kids can use and work on the equipment. They are two different courses.”The training center also boasts hydraulics, electrical, pneumatics, robotics and PLC courses, as well as a partnership with Youngstown State University for 5G communication and 3-D printing programsWatson added that officials were also reviewing plans to boost lighting, windows and heating within the site and are also looking to make improvements at the Williams Collaboration Building just a stone’s throw away at 10 E. Main St. Meanwhile, plans are also on the drawing board for the welding facility adjacent to the former Hutson Building which houses USA programs for grades 9-12. USA, which has operated for the past decade, is a dropout recovery-and-retention school focusing on career-tech education for at-risk students who have obtained more than 1,100 certifications since 2021. The program currently includes 190 pupils in grades 9-12 and the expansion could potentially triple enrollment to about 350 pupils.
Canada Pension Plan Investing $843M in Tallgrass Energy, REX | Marcellus Drilling News -We spotted some news that, on the surface, may not appear to be connected to the Marcellus/Utica, but we think it is. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments) is investing approximately $843 million (CAD 1.2 billion) in Denver, Colorado-based Tallgrass Energy. CPP is a major investor in the Utica Shale (via Encino Energy), and Tallgrass is the owner and operator of the Rockies Express (REX) pipeline that flows Marcellus/Utica gas to the Midwest.
MPLX 2Q – Bullish on the Marcellus and “Now the Utica” - Marcellus Drilling News - In late 2015, MPLX (i.e., Marathon Petroleum) bought out and merged in the Utica Shale’s premier midstream company, MarkWest Energy, for $15 billion (seeMarkWest Energy Investors/Unitholders Approve Merger with Marathon). The “new” MarkWest, aka MPLX, plays on a much larger stage now, including ownership and operation of major assets in the Permian Basin and in the Bakken Shale, in addition to the Marcellus/Utica. Last week, MPLX issued its second quarter 2024 update. During a conference call with analysts, MPLX's COO Greg Floerke said this about the Marcellus and Utica: "...there is room for us to grow, and we're still very bullish on the Marcellus and now the Utica."
PA-Based Frac Sand Co. Opening Ohio Terminal for Utica Sales --- Marcellus Drilling News --- We first told you about a frac sand company called Smart Sand some 12 years ago (seeSmart Sand Lands Big Name for Board of Directors). Smart Sand, headquartered in Yardley, PA, is a supplier of industrial sand, primarily serving customers in the oil and gas industry, including drillers in the Marcellus and Utica Shale region. Sand—the right kind of sand, which is crystalline—is a critical part of the hydraulic fracturing process. The company issued its second quarter update yesterday. The update contained some interesting news that caught our attention…
Earnings call: Smart Sand exceeds Q2 expectations and generated $13.5 million in cash flow Smart Sand Inc . (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SND), a premier supplier of high-quality Northern White sand, has reported robust financial results for the second quarter of 2024. The company's sales volumes reached nearly 1.3 million tons, surpassing projections, and generated a significant $13.5 million in free cash flow.Despite a decrease in earnings from the previous quarter due to higher costs, Smart Sand showcased improved contribution margins and adjusted EBITDA. The company is making strategic moves to expand its market share and is preparing to reward shareholders with value-returning plans later in the year.Key Takeaways:
- Smart Sand's sales volumes hit just under 1.3 million tons in Q2, exceeding expectations.
- The company reported an improved contribution margin of $19.8 million.
- Adjusted EBITDA increased to $11.8 million for the quarter.
- Smart Sand generated $13.5 million in free cash flow and expects to remain positive for the full year.
- Plans to introduce shareholder value-returning initiatives later this year were announced.
- Expansion efforts are underway in the Bakken and Marcellus basins, and into the Canadian market.
- Two new terminals in Ohio will target the Utica Shale formation market.
- The company is focusing on cost management and efficiency to maintain a strong capital structure.
Convenient Timing: Biden-Harris Promise Pa. Another $152 Million -Marcellus Drilling News --- Many political pundits say the presidential election will come down to Pennsylvania. Whichever candidate wins PA — Trump or The Cackler — will likely win the White House. EVERYTHING that happens between now and then has a political component, including yesterday’s announcement by the Biden-Harris Dept. of Interior that yet another slug of up to $152 million is coming PA’s way for plugging orphaned and abandoned conventional oil and gas wells. This has politics written all over it. Read More
PA DEP Hosting 3 Info Sessions on Scoring Bidenbucks to Plug Wells -- Marcellus Drilling News - With the presidential election only 80 days from now, the money coming from Washington, D.C. to swing states like Pennsylvania is flowing like a river, as we told you yesterday (see Convenient Timing: Biden-Harris Promise Pa. Another $152 Million). The orders have gone out to get this money (or rather, the promise of this money) out there asap. Gotta hang that big old carrot out there. PA Gov. Josh Shapiro snapped a sharp salute and said, “Yes, ma’am.” The PA Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) will run three information sessions the week after next on the Orphan Conventional Oil & Gas Well Plugging Grant Program and how companies can grab their bribe piece of the action.
PA Supreme Court Lib Dems Collecting Briefs on RGGI Carbon Tax -- Marcellus Drilling News --- In July, MDN told you about a disappointing (but not surprising) decision from the Democrat leftists on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court (see PA Supreme Court Allows Big Green $$ in RGGI Carbon Tax Lawsuit). The so-called Supremes ruled in favor of allowing three well-financed Big Green groups, including the Sierra Club, PennFuture, and Clean Air Council, to join a lawsuit attempting to force PA to accept the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), an obscene carbon tax on coal- and gas-fired plants. With Big Green’s money and attorneys now supporting the state Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) in its quest to ram through RGGI, it’s time for the Supremes to solicit briefs in the case.
26 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Aug 5 – 11 -- Marcellus Drilling News --For the week of August 5 – 11, a total of 26 permits were issued to drill new shale wells in Marcellus/Utica, with the vast majority issued in Pennsylvania. The Keystone State had 21 new permits, with an eye-popping 19 going to EQT split between Greene and Washington counties (in the southwestern part of the state), and two issued to Range Resources in Beaver County. Ohio issued five new permits last week, with four going to Ascent Resources in Jefferson County and one to Encino Energy (EAP) in Guernsey County. West Virginia’s online data service is currently out of order, and there is no ETA for when it will be fixed, so we have no permits to report for the Mountain State. ASCENT RESOURCES | BEAVER COUNTY | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | GUERNSEY COUNTY | JEFFERSON COUNTY (OH) | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | WASHINGTON COUNTY
Harris Surrounds Herself with Anti-Fracking, Far-Left Advisors - Marcellus Drilling News --- -The Cackler (Kamala Harris) will be in North Carolina today, delivering a speech on her economic views and how she plans to fix the economic mess her administration has made over the past four years. She and her obedient mainstream media lapdogs will try to convince you she has changed. She now loves lower taxes, wants to fight crime, limit illegal immigration, etc. With fracking, she now loves it or at least will tolerate it, even though she has ALWAYS advocated for a full-on ban of fracking across the entire country. One of The Cackler’s policies she will announce today will be to advocate for an anti-capitalist takeover by the government of prices for everything from gas to groceries. Price controls have NEVER worked, not once. Yet she will advocate for it today, and the media will try to convince dull viewers that it’s the best thing since sliced bread. How do we know she’s lying about fracking and other energy issues? Look at who is in her inner circle of economic advisers.
Louisiana utility commission OKs major donor’s plan to buy Entergy gas system --A private equity firm that has given more than $200,000 in campaign contributions to Louisiana Public Service Commission members won unanimous approval from the commission Wednesday to purchase Entergy Louisiana’s gas distribution system. There was little discussion and no opposition to the system’s sale to Bernhard Capital Partners. Bernhard has agreed to pay $484 million for Entergy Louisiana and Entergy New Orleans’ gas systems. The latter is subject to approval by the New Orleans City Council. Floodlight’s analysis of campaign contributions found that Bernhard Capital Partners and its executives donated to all the five Louisiana Public Service commissioners, and one former commissioner, over the past seven years. Most of that money, $149,000 or 71%, went to Commissioner Craig Greene, whose district includes Baton Rouge, where Entergy Louisiana’s gas customers live. Greene, who made the motion to approve the deal at the meeting, told Floodlight before the vote that he thinks Bernhard donated to his campaign because they believed in him. “I have a vision for the state, I’m considered a swing member, and I think they like that I’m agnostic,” on technologies, he told Floodlight before the vote. “Their money doesn’t mean anything more than if you gave me $25 right now.” Other commissioners also said campaign contributions don’t affect their votes. “Hell no, I do what I want,” said Commissioner Foster Campbell, who received $7,500 from Bernhard founders Jeff Jenkins and Jim Bernhard and Bernhard’s wife in 2019. Bernhard did not return requests for comment on this story. Bernhard filed its request with the commission to purchase Entergy’s gas utility late last year, but as early as 2018, the company telescoped its interest in purchasing utilities. Private equity firms often buy companies with the goal of changing them to become more profitable. Such a move can make the company more successful — or weigh it down with massive debt. “We have general concerns when a private equity firm acquires a franchised utility with captive customers, in part because the financial structure of a private equity firm is far more opaque when compared to a publicly-traded companies,” said Tyson Slocum, director of the energy program at Public Citizen, a nonprofit consumer advocacy organization. In addition to Entergy’s gas systems in Louisiana, Bernhard has announced deals to purchase CenterPoint’s gas systems in Louisiana and Mississippi and another system owned by Emera in New Mexico. With those acquisitions, Bernhard’s newly formed gas utility, Delta State Utilities, would have about 1.1 million customers. Currently it has zero.
U.S. appeals court scraps natural gas pipeline safety standards - A U.S. appeals court has tossed out several natural gas pipeline safety standards adopted by President Joe Biden's administration following industry criticism about the massive costs on pipeline operators. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit said the U.S. Department of Transportation's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) failed to adequately explain why the revised standards' benefits outweigh their costs. The Interstate Natural Gas Association of America, a trade group, had largely supported the revisions, but sued last year to challenge five that PHMSA adopted over its objections. Those highly technical standards, finalized in 2022, included new requirements for operators to carry out repairs to address pipeline walls thinning or corroding or developing cracks and dents. The trade group welcomed the ruling. The agency did not respond to a request for comment. U.S. Circuit Judge Florence Pan, writing for Friday's three-judge panel, said the PHMSA's analysis of the costs of the new standards were inadequate, inconsistent or missing. "Because the agency imposed a new safety requirement without properly addressing the costs of doing so, the standard cannot stand," Pan, a Biden appointee, said of one of the new requirements. The court upheld a fifth new standard the trade group had challenged, which addressed monitoring for a type of pipe anomaly that occurs when corrosion and high pressure cause cracks.
EnLink Expanding Louisiana Natural Gas Storage as Gulf Coast Export Capacity Climbs --Dallas-based EnLink Midstream LLC has sanctioned its first brownfield natural gas expansion project in Louisiana as it works to add 8 Bcf of capacity to the Jefferson Island Storage & Hub. Enlink Louisiana Natural Gas Pipes Geared for LNG Growth. JISH, as it is known, “received strong commercial interest and is backed by investment-grade credit customers under long-term contracts,” CEO Jesse Arenivas said during the quarterly conference call last week. First injections at JISH, estimated to cost $85 million, are expected in 2028. The expansion would increase working gas storage to 10 Bcf from 2 Bcf.
Venture Global Targets CP2 LNG Construction Start in September -- Venture Global LNG Inc. is expecting to hit a major milestone for its CP2 LNG project in Louisiana next month while it mounts a defense against challenges to the Plaquemines export facility, also nearing a new stage of development. Virginia-based Venture Global, which now has a substantial list of liquefied natural gas projects in various stages of development in Louisiana, indicated to FERC staff this month that it is targeting to begin construction for CP2 in early September. In a timeline filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, along with a bevy of other implementation plans for the project, Venture Global said starting construction next month would allow it to stay on track to reach the project’s in-service near the end of 2028.
Majors, Middle East NOCs Among Likely Woodside Partners for Driftwood LNG -Woodside Energy Group Ltd. is betting on a big future for LNG and the U.S. Gulf Coast’s role in it after making a bold move last month to acquire Tellurian Inc. and its Driftwood liquefied natural gas export project in Louisiana. The 27 million metric ton/year (mmty) Driftwood project would add to Woodside’s existing 20 mmty portfolio placing it as one of the largest global LNG suppliers, according to Wood Mackenzie. “This is the first time a large portfolio player has taken full strategic control of a U.S. project,’ said Wood Mackenzie’s Daniel Toleman, the firm’s Perth-based research director for Global LNG. “We’ve seen companies take strategic non-operated positions before. But this suggests Woodside wants to control its own destiny by taking control of one of the best remaining LNG development sites on the Gulf Coast.”
NextDecade Sees Risk for All Federally Permitted Infrastructure in Rio Grande Case — Three Things to Know About the LNG Market --NextDecade Corp. CEO Matt Schatzman said this week that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit’s decision vacating FERC authorization for its Rio Grande LNG project sets a dangerous precedent. The company, he said, is prepared to take “any and all available legal and regulatory actions” to ensure the project isn’t delayed. “The decision reached by the DC Circuit Court has far-reaching implications,” Schatzman said in the company’s second quarter earnings release. “If the ruling stands, the precedent that would be set by the court’s action has the potential to impact viability of all federally permitted infrastructure projects because it will be difficult for these projects to attract capital investments until they receive final unappealable permits.” The court sent the Rio Grande and Texas liquefied natural gas projects’ authorizations back to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for further consideration of the projects’ environmental impacts, which could create lengthy delays for the projects.
NextDecade to appeal court's overturning of Rio Grande LNG project authorization -- U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer NextDecade said on Wednesday it will appeal a court ruling that overturned federal approval for its $18-B Rio Grande LNG project and warned loss of its permits could prevent access to its loans. "Its ability to continue borrowing under such credit facilities could be negatively impacted," Next Decade told the market. The company's stock price has slumped 38% since the judgment, finishing at $4.84 on Wednesday down from its close on Aug. 5. NextDecade said there is no guarantee how long any agency proceedings and judicial challenges will take to be resolved, if there will be delays in construction activities or if Rio Grande will ultimately succeed in maintaining the permits. The judicial decision would not come into effect until the court issued a mandate, which was not expected to occur until the appeals process has been completed, NextDecade said. "If the ruling stands, the precedent set impacts the viability of all federally permitted infrastructure projects because it will be difficult for developers to attract capital investments until projects receive final unappealable permits," CEO Matt Schatzman said. Next Decade's flagship facility has been in development for several years and has already suffered repeated delays. The first phase of the project, with a capacity of 17.61 MMtpy, is due to be completed by early 2029 at an expected cost of about $18 B. The company, backed by the likes of Global Infrastructure Partners and French energy major Total Energies, said that overall project completion of the first two liquefaction units, called trains, stands at 24.1%, as of June. It has received purchase orders of about 92% of total capacity for the first two trains and 88% of the total for the third train. The company was planning to start construction of the fourth train in the second half of 2024 after a final investment decision and said it is assessing the implications of the court ruling with its equity partners and lenders.
U.S. LNG Export Capacity Growth Stalls for Now as Startups Slide into 2025 --While U.S. LNG supply is poised to skyrocket by the end of the decade, little new export capacity will come online this year, and additional volumes are expected to climb slowly through next year and into 2026 as projects work through various setbacks. Chart showing U.S. LNG projects under construction. Currently, the United States has about 14.5 Bcf/d of liquefied natural gas export capacity. By the end of 2024, EnergyAspects expects that to rise to 14.9 Bcf/d. The capacity increase is largely due to the ongoing ramp up in commissioning Plaquemines LNG, which had feed gas flows average about 10 MMcf/d over the last week. Plaquemines is expected to have between four and six of its modular trains in the commissioning phase and potentially its first cargo loaded by the end of this year. That could boost U.S. export capacity by around 300 MMcf/d, said EnergyAspects’ David Seduski, head of North America Gas.
US natgas at near 3-week high on output drop, hotter weather forecasts (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 2% to a near three-week high on Monday, supported by a drop in output in recent days and forecasts for hotter weather that should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4.6 cents, or about 2.1%, to settle at $2.189 per million British thermal units. "Drilling cutback announcements by major organizations, whether it be Chesapeake or EQT or whomever, everyone seems to be pulling back on their end-of-year production outlooks, and that's definitely giving us support," The market is also getting some boost from "weather shifts, which are showing some heat towards the end of August and into early September" and some European buyers come back into the U.S. market for hedging purposes, Major U.S. natural gas producers were preparing to further curtail production in the second half, after prices sank nearly 40% over the past two months. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to an average of 102.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, down from 103.4 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Meanwhile, LSEG estimated 228 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks. The normal for this time of year is 183 CDDs. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to rise to 105.9 bcfd this week from 104.0 bcfd last week, and then expected it to rise to 107.9 bcfd next week. Dutch wholesale gas prices inched up on Monday morning amid concerns about gas supplies via Ukraine, while British prices rose due to outages in the UK Continental Shelf.
US natural gas futures rise - US natural gas futures rose more than 3% on Wednesday, supported by a drop in output and forecasts of hotter weather for the second half of August that could boost cooling demand and increase gas consumption by power generators to meet air conditioning needs. Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.1 cents, or about 3.3%, to settle at $2.219 per million British thermal units. “We’ve had some moderation of weather models that have seemed to have reversed. We’re starting to add some cooling degree days to the second half of August. So, that’s been a bit of a help,” Financial firm LSEG estimated 224 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly lower than the 233 CDDs estimated on Tuesday. The normal for this time of year is 186 CDDs. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 US states, including exports, to rise from 105.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 107.5 bcfd next week. “All data vendors are showing that there has been decline over the past week in production and that has certainly tightened balances for the short term, which will mean that there’s less gas going into the ground during this injection season, and that has helped to create a little bit of upside,” LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 has fallen to an average of 102.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, down from 103.4 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. While the steady narrowing in the gas surplus will not cause a spike in prices independently on any given day or week, it will provide a bullish backdrop capable of accentuating price response to any unexpected supply disruptions or one more round of broad-based heat before this summer ends, Elsewhere, intense fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces near a pipeline Russia uses to supply European countries with gas has not disrupted supplies, network operators and gas companies said on Tuesday. Dutch and British gas wholesale prices were little changed on Wednesday morning amid flat demand and steady flows.
US natgas slips over 1% despite surprise storage draw, hotter forecasts (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures settled lower on Thursday as prices saw retracement and on lower demand forecasts for next week than previously expected. The price decline came despite forecasts for hotter weather and a federal weekly report showing a surprise draw in inventories. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 2.2 cents, or about 1% lower, to settle at $2.197 per million British thermal units. "The market reacted positively to the withdrawal today, but the level of gas in storage is still substantially high and that's the kind of the bearish background in all of this...I think it could be why we might have come off today," The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities drew 6 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from inventories during the week ended Aug. 9. That compared with an injection of 33 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2019-2023) average increase of 43 bcf for this time of year. Analysts had projected that hotter-than-usual weather last week kept cooling demand high and allowed utilities to add a much smaller-than-usual 6 bcf of gas into storage, according to a Reuters poll. "I think natural gas prices are still partially supported by the August heat in the near and short term. We are still expecting hotter-than-normal weather even at the 30-day horizon," "But the longer-term price movement is largely constrained by the large storage surplus against the five-year average and expected record storage level at the end of the injection season." Financial firm LSEG estimated 227 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly higher than the 224 CDDs estimated on Wednesday. The normal for this time of year is 186 CDDs. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 U.S. states, including exports, to edge up from 105.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 106.8 bcfd next week. Dutch and British gas wholesale prices were largely flat but still near eight-month highs as well-filled storages balanced concerns over potential supply disruptions ahead of the winter season.
US natgas falls to one-week low on oversupply of fuel in storage (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures dropped more than 3% to a one-week low on Friday on forecasts for less hot weather than previously expected and oversupply of gas in storage, even though a federal weekly report showed a surprise draw in inventories this week. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 7.4 cents, or about 3.4%, to settle at $2.123 per million British thermal units. "Prices are mainly down because of the high levels of gas in storage and high production volumes. Lowered demand from LNG maintenance has also allowed storage to stay so high," The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday said utilities drew 6 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from inventories during the week ended Aug. 9, decreasing stockpiles to 3.264 trillion cubic feet (tcf). However, that was still above 7.2% the same week a year ago and 12.5% above the five-year average for the week. Financial firm LSEG estimated 223 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly lower than the 227 CDDs estimated on Thursday. The normal for this time of year is 186 CDDs. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 U.S. states, including exports, to rise from 104.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 106.5 bcfd next week. LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. has fallen to an average of 102.4 bcfd so far in August, down from 103.4 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. "This market is sending off some bearish vibes given its inability to advance off of a seemingly bullish EIA report that offered a highly unusual 6 bcf storage withdrawal for early August," Meanwhile, Dutch and British gas wholesale prices were mixed on Friday morning as strong storage inventories helped ease fears of potential supply disruptions due to the war between Russia and Ukraine as well as tensions in the Middle East.
Where Are North American Natural Gas Prices Headed? Storage, Weather and Exports Are Key, Says NGI -Natural gas export capacity could explode within months on the Gulf Coast and in Western Canada, a signal for operators to begin ramping up activity. Still, storage is continuing to rise, and weather demand has remained tepid. What does it mean for prices? NGI’s experts have a few answers. NGI's forward look natural gas prices at select hubs graph. The NGI Thought Leaders team turned the microphone on themselves to answer a few questions about the global gas market, using internal data, research, interviews with industry veterans and quarterly conference call information. What are the biggest factors driving U.S. natural gas prices? How does the global economy factor into the domestic gas market? What challenges need to be addressed? How will the domestic natural gas market evolve to meet Mexico’s proliferating import demand?
Fury Resources Lowers Offer for Permian E&P Battalion by 29% | Hart Energy --Permian producer Battalion Oil is reviewing an amendment to a planned acquisition by Fury Resources that would lower the deal’s purchase price by nearly 29% per share.Battalion said Fury’s amendment to the original merger agreement, announced in December, would reduce the amount of merger consideration payable to Battalion’s stockholders from $9.80 per share to $7 per share, the company reported in second-quarter earnings on Aug. 14.“The modified offer is contingent on the existing holders of the company's Series A through Series A-4 preferred equity rolling 100% of their preferred equity into new preferred equity in the surviving company following the merger in order to help support the transaction,” Battalion wrote in a filing.Under the original merger terms, Fury would pay $9.80 per share in cash for BATL’s common stock, representing a total transaction value of around $450 million. It’s unclear how much of the original $450 million transaction value was attributable to debt.Battalion said its board of directors and special committee were reviewing Fury’s amended proposal. Battalion said its preferred stockholders also reported reviewing the amendment.If the amended terms were adopted, it’s not immediately clear how much the deal’s total value would decline. Hart Energy reached out to Fury Resources and Battalion Oil for more information but did not receive a response by press time.
Texas oil regulator under scrutiny as zombie wells gush back to life (Reuters) - On a sprawling ranch in Pecos County in late July, oil well control specialist Hawk Dunlap used a backhoe to uncover an abandoned or so-called zombie well that had sprung back to life despite being plugged just over a year earlier, hissing gas and bubbling toxic water into the dry Texas dirt.Dressed in bright red coveralls and a silver hard hat, Dunlap hopped off the machine and into the hole to clear away remaining soil with a shovel, and then picked up a brittle chunk of cement that was part of the casing meant to keep fluids and gases underground. He crushed the cement into dust with a light squeeze of his fingers as the Briggs family, who own the ranch, formed a circle around him."This was not plugged properly," Dunlap said. "This is the work of the three stooges of the Railroad Commission."The Railroad Commission (RRC) is the regulatory body that, despite its name, oversees oil and gas operations in Texas. And Dunlap, a three-decade veteran of oil fields around the globe, has become one of its most vocal critics.Armed with a portable gas detector and mobile phone, Dunlap has spent much of the last two-and-a-half years documenting a flurry of oil well blow-outs and leaks across West Texas at the behest of landowners, in an epidemic he says is being caused by low-quality plugging jobs left behind by operators and their contractors and approved by the RRC.He and his partner Sarah Stogner, an oil and gas lawyer who documents their work on social media, say they have now recorded over 100 leaking legacy or "orphan" wells with no responsible owner, which were listed in RRC records as properly plugged, including the one at the Briggs Ranch in Pecos County.Reuters reporting in West Texas, along with interviews with landowners and experts and a review of RRC records show why the state regulator is under increased pressure to step up its oversight. The added scrutiny comes at a time when over the last two years, more and more abandoned wells have started to spill or even gushed geyser-like, formed salt and chemical-laden lakes or caused sinkholes.Making matters worse is the rising pressure pushing up from beneath the ground due to the billions of gallons of wastewater injected back into reservoirs for disposal in latest fracking-led drilling boom in the Permian basin, the largest U.S. oilfield. That pressure, Dunlap says, likely causes the badly plugged wells to burst.The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said it would investigate whether to revoke the RRC’s permitting authority for waste disposal wells after Texas watchdog group Commission Shift filed a federal complaint alleging mismanagement.RRC spokesperson Patty Ramon said the EPA has not yet contacted them to launch the review, and noted the agency previously commended its underground injection program."We will assist them with any input if they do," Ramon said.Faced with the rising number of calls from worried landowners, Dunlap is running a long-shot campaign to win one of the three RRC seats as a libertarian this autumn, hoping to change the organization from within."It's about seeing that things are done right and not letting oil companies run over the citizens of Texas just because they produce oil and gas and pay some royalties," he told Reuters.Among the changes he would like to see: quicker and better quality plugging of wells, accountability for the oil companies who left them behind, and a new name for the Railroad Commission to make clear it regulates the oil industry. “I spent 27 years roaming the Earth lauding the fact that Texas does it bigger and better than everybody else. So you have to understand that when we started excavating and investigating … it was, quite a bit of a gut punch for me,” said Dunlap, who has worked in 103 countries. Without a solvent owner of record, the responsibility of plugging these orphan wells falls on the RRC, which plans to plug 2,000 wells this year with state funds.While the RRC has documented over 8,500 inactive or unplugged orphan wells in Texas, experts estimate there are thousands more undocumented, the legacy of more than a century of drilling, that are not eligible for closure funding. Meanwhile, oil drillers working new wells in the Permian overlying Texas and New Mexico are accumulating around 24 million barrels daily of "produced water" – the salty mixture that comes up alongside oil and gas, according to Laura Capper with energy advisory EnergyMakers. Between 40-55% of this water is injected in local disposal wells, with much of the rest reused for oil operations, she said.On top of concerns of produced water - laden with chemicals like radium and boron - threatening local aquifers and vegetation, all the drilling, pumping, and reinjection is causing the earth to rise and subside in places and triggering quakes, landowners and activists say.“It is this perfect storm in the Permian with all this produced water, earthquakes and orphan wells,” said Adam Peltz, director of the Environmental Defense Fund’s Energy Program.Deep injections of wastewater have triggered earthquakes, which has led to the RRC restricting new drilling permits in some areas. Shallower injections, however, overpressure the subsurface, causing poorly plugged wells to leak or blow.
Texas earthquakes: Seismologist says people are the main cause — This summer, Texas has registered over 1,000 earthquakes. A few of the stronger ones – Magnitude 4 and above – made headlines in late July.The large number can seem staggering because Texas isn't known for earthquakes. So why have there been so many? In most cases, the earthquakes are small and can't be felt, but as years have passed, higher magnitude quakes have become slightly more common. To unearth the mystery, we spoke with Alexandros Savvaidis, a seismologist, research professor and overseer of the TexNet Earthquake Catalog.“From the tectonic point of view, we don't expect earthquakes in the state of Texas," he said.Savvaidis said Texas is located on the intraplate of the continent, which isn't supposed to see a lot of seismic activity. "But due to the changes in the stress state of the subsurface, we start having earthquakes," he said. "Now, this is happening mostly due to the oil and gas operations."There are two main ways this happens: saltwater disposal and fracking. During oil and gas drilling operations, salt water is produced. To dispose of it, it's put back into the ground by way of a well, which is very deep. Meanwhile, according to the Independent Petroleum Association of America, "hydraulic fracturing (fracking) is the process of injecting liquid and materials at high pressure to create small fractures within tight shale formations to stimulate the production and safely extract energy from an underground well after the drilling has ended."In a nutshell, both practices can disrupt known or unknown fault lines under the surface of the Earth, causing things to shift around.Below is an analysis done by University of Texas researchers, published in 2019:Historical data confirms the recent increase in West Texas earthquakes.Now that this analysis is generally accepted by both scientists and petroleum producers, the job of those at the TexNet Earthquake Catalog is to "provide information about smaller magnitude earthquakes to the public and the industry, so that we can understand the way the seismicity is migrating and that can help us on prevention," according to Savvaidis.The biggest preventative measure he proposed is that Texas may eventually benefit from a "seismic code," or guidelines that protect buildings and people from earthquakes, similar to what California has in place.
Fracking ban starts in Texas city near where technique pioneered (Reuters) - The first ban on new hydraulic fracturing in Texas went into effect on Tuesday in the city of Denton, a month after voters deemed the oil and gas extraction method behind the U.S. energy boom a community nuisance. The Texas Oil & Gas Association, an industry group, and the Texas General Land Office filed a lawsuit shortly after voters in the city of 123,000 approved the ban on Nov. 4. The lawsuit aims to allow the technique known as fracking, widely used in the top crude and natural gas producing state in the country. "Whatever happens next will take place in a courtroom," said Ed Ireland, executive director of the Barnett Shale Energy Education Council, a group aligned with producers. Denton, a college town about 30 miles (50 kms) north of Dallas, sits atop the natural gas-rich Barnett shale formation, which stretches across 24 North Texas counties. Fracking was pioneered in the Barnett and Exxon Mobil's XTO unit has been a significant operator here. Fracking mixes pressurized water, sand and chemicals to release hydrocarbons from rock. Residents in Fort Worth, Denton and other cities above the Barnett, have been at odds with operators, who say the method is safe. Residents and environmental groups says it is noisy, pollutes underground aquifers and is responsible for a series of recent earthquakes to hit the area. The measure in Denton, with about 270 wells, won more than 58 percent of the 25,376 ballots cast, official results showed. Elsewhere, fracking bans met with mixed results in November elections. Voters in three Ohio cities rejected proposed bans while one ban was approved. Proposed bans failed in one California county but passed in two others. Bans approved by voters in some Colorado cities have produced lawsuits. Cathy McMullen, leader of an anti-fracking group that pressed for a vote in Denton, said in a statement: "We're glad our city is listening. We wish we could say the same about our state." After the election, David Porter, senior member of the energy regulatory Texas Railroad Commission, said he is confident that "reason and science will triumph" and the ban will be overturned.
Amid Flagging US Activity, OFS Sector Looks to 2025—and Overseas | Hart Energy -- Oilfield service companies are bracing for a weakened North American market for the remainder of the year as drilling activity fell through the second quarter. But an uptick in international and offshore projects helped much of the sector post strong second quarter financials.The second quarter showed positive momentum across “across the different verticals within the OFS market,” despite a slowdown in U.S. activity, according to an Aug. 10 Evercore ISI report.“The four major oilfield service companies are well-positioned to benefit from the multi-year global upcycle in E&P spending and the increasing demand for energy services and technology,” Evercore analyst James West wrote. “Strong earnings growth and margin expansion are being driven by international and offshore markets.”Jefferies equity research analysts agreed.“Large cap oilfield service companies posted their second quarter earnings with momentum in international activity expected to continue, while North American activity is expected to trend lower in the second half of 2024, as investors look for cycle bottom,” analyst Lloyd Byrne wrote in a July 28 report.Other analysts said that U.S. onshore rig operators may have seen the bottoming of activity in the quarter and many OFS firms are expecting a rebound in 2025.In the second quarter, SLB benefitted from its strong international and offshore exposure, “with significant gains in digital technology adoption and a focus on leveraging its technology leadership,” West said in a report that referred to the sector as “Surfing the Global Upcycle.”Jefferies added that SLB continued its margin expansion, “posting [a] second quarter earnings beat with the company reaffirming expectations of continued strong international outlook, while lowering growth expectations from North America.”SLB EBITDA is projected to grow between 14% and 15% in 2024.Baker Hughes landed $3.5 billion worth of non-LNG equipment contracts during the second quarter, but the company revised its global upstream spending outlook “slightly down” due to North American softness, President and CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said during the company’s July 26 earnings call.Jefferies gave Baker Hughes a “buy” recommendation as “execution at Baker Hughes continues and the company’s stock reacted positively to strong second quarter results and positive revisions to 2024 guidance.” The company’s Industrial & Energy Technology segment continues to outperform with growth expected from LNG and non-LNG operations.Halliburton Co. Chairman, President and CEO Jeff Miller said the company continues to see international markets boosting the company’s bottom line duringthe company’s July 19 earnings call.“Despite lagging North American revenue and strong competition in the pressure pumping business, Miller said Halliburton will allocate capital to the markets and products that drive superior returns and margins.”Jefferies analysts’ bottom line for the company was that “sluggish North American activity impacted Halliburton growth, lowering its price target to $47/share.”“Halliburton’s second quarter revenue missed, but margins were above expectations,” Byrne said.Halliburton’s guidance projects a 2024 decline in North American revenue of 6% to 8% year-over-year and slightly trimmed international revenue outlook.“Our 2024 revenue/EBITDA is revised down by about 3.5% as we incorporate the updated guidance,” Byrne said. Jefferies still rated Halliburton a “buy” recommendation despite the slump.Evercore avoided commenting on the second quarter earnings miss saying, “Halliburton is preparing for a North American land recovery in 2025 and 2026, while its international revenue from Latin America and the Middle East/Asia, shows robust growth.”Rounding out the Big Four OFS firms, Weatherford continued to benefit from international and offshore momentum despite the North American slowdown, according to company executives and analysts’ commentary.Weatherford released its second-quarter financial results on July 24, reporting a 26% increase in adjusted EBITDA margins compared to the first quarter—the company’s highest margins in the past 15 years.For a company threatened by a second bankruptcy in late 2020, President and CEO Girish Saligram called the company quarterly showing a “remarkable turnaround.” As a result, the company’s board authorized its first share buyback program and first quarterly dividend.Evercore sees “favorable growth in the Middle East, Latin America and Asia with a new shareholder return program and improving margins and cash flow” for Weatherford.
Inaugural Mexican LNG Export Cargo Launches from Altamira, NFE Says -After some delays and mixed signals from its vessel, New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE) has confirmed the first shipment of U.S. natural gas liquefied in Mexico has been loaded and is on the water. In a video published this week, New York-based NFE disclosed it had successfully loaded an LNG cargo at its 1.4 million metric tons/year (mmty) fast liquefied natural gas (FLNG) facility offshore Altamira. Earlier in the month, the company pushed its target for a first cargo shipment in late July to mid-August after a series of delays starting in April. NFE also disclosed its first LNG cargo would be loaded on the Energos Princess and delivered to the Pichilingue liquefied natural gas import terminal in La Paz on Mexico’s Pacific Coast. NFE has a supply agreement with Mexico’s Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) to provide up to 0.3 mmty of LNG to the import terminal in southern Baja California.
Pembina Ramping Up Marketing Efforts for Cedar LNG as Sanctioning Spurs Renewed Interest --Pembina Pipeline Corp. is working to complete contracts this year for the remaining natural gas capacity for the Cedar LNG Partners LP export project in British Columbia, a top executive said last week. Map showing Pembina's midstream assets in Canada. The Calgary-based executive team discussed the marketing efforts for the liquefied natural gas export facility and other projects in the queue during the second quarter conference call. In late June, Pembina and the Haisla Nation sanctioned the 3.3 million metric ton/year floating LNG project, which could begin exports by late 2028.
TTF Rally Ends, but Geopolitical Risks Keep Natural Gas Market on Edge — European natural gas prices declined on Monday, ending a charge higher last week that left the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) to close at its highest level since December. North America LNG Export Flow Tracker. TTF finished near $13 on Friday after Ukrainian troops pushed into Russia, where fighting broke out near key gas infrastructure. The incursion continued Monday, but natural gas continued to flow into Ukraine via the Sudzha intake point at Russia’s western border, and on to Europe. The market also was still bracing for the possibility of a retaliatory strike by Iran against Israel for the assassination of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. For now, however, fundamentals have remained largely unchanged, and TTF fell 2% Monday. Norwegian exports were flowing near capacity to the continent and other supplies remained stable. Storage inventories were at 87.3% of capacity on Monday, compared to the five-year average of 77.2% for this time of year.
Europe’s Russian LNG Imports Again on the Rise -Despite efforts to ban Russian natural gas imports, Europe has been taking in more of it as higher spot prices in the Pacific Basin in recent weeks have drawn more American supplies toward Asia. Europe LNG Imports. Last month, Europe imported nearly 35% of its LNG from the United States and 21% from Russia, according to Kpler. That compared to 39% from the United States and 19% from Russia in June. Over the same time, European LNG imports fell to 6.11 million tons, or a 34-month low amid soft demand. Kpler analyst JP Lacouture told NGI that liquefied natural gas deliveries to Europe from PAO Novatek’s Yamal facility were marginally higher compared to the last few years, with July deliveries to Europe looking similar to 2020 and 2022. However, deliveries from Russia to Europe were up 53% year/year in 2023.
EXPLAINER: Why is natural gas still flowing from Russia to Europe across Ukraine? (AP) — It's one of the more improbable aspects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Even after 2 1/2 years of war and repeated rounds of sanctions, Russian natural gas keeps flowing through Ukraine's pipeline network to customers in Europe. That hasn't changed despite Ukraine apparently taking control of a gas measuring station near the Russian town of Sudzha as part of Kyiv’s push into Russia’s Kursk region.Here are key things to know about the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. Who gets Russian natural gas through Ukraine's pipelines? Natural gas flows from West Siberian gas fields through pipes that pass through Sudzha and cross the Ukrainian border into Ukraine's system. The pipeline enters the European Union at the Ukraine-Slovakia border, then branches off and sends gas to utilities in Austria, Slovakia and Hungary. Natural gas is used to generate electricity, power industrial processes, and in some cases to heat homes. What's the situation at the Sudzha measuring station? Gas is flowing as before. It’s no surprise, since Ukraine could have cut off the flows through their own pipeline system at any time. Actual control over the station is difficult to verify due to military secrecy and lack of access for observers or journalists. On Tuesday, 42.4 million cubic meters of gas were slated to pass through the Sudzha station, according to Ukraine's gas transmission system operator. That's roughly in line with the average for the past 30 days. Why is gas still moving from Russia to Europe? Before the war Ukraine and Russia agreed on a five-year deal under which Russia agreed to send set amounts of gas through Ukraine's pipeline system — set up when both countries were part of the Soviet Union — to Europe. Gazprom earns money from the gas and Ukraine collects transit fees. That agreement runs through the end of this year. Ukraine's energy minister, German Galushchenko, has said Ukraine has no intention of prolonging it or replacing it. Before the war, Russia supplied some 40% of Europe's natural gas through pipelines. Gas flowed through four pipeline systems, one under the Baltic Sea, one through Belarus and Poland, the one through Ukraine, and Turk Stream under the Black Sea through Turkey to Bulgaria. After the war started, Russia cut off most supplies through the Baltic and Belarus-Poland pipelines, citing disputes over a demand for payment in rubles. The Baltic pipeline was blown up in an act of sabotage, but details of the attack remain murky. The Russian cutoff caused an energy crisis in Europe. Germany had to shell out billions of euros to set up floating terminals to import liquefied natural gas that comes by ship, not by pipeline. Users cut back as prices soared. Norway and the U.S. filled the gap, becoming the two largest suppliers. Europe viewed the Russian cutoff as energy blackmail and has outlined plans to completely eliminate Russian gas imports by 2027. Still, Russian gas was never banned — even though the money earned supports Russia's state budget and helps prop up the ruble currency. It's a testimony to how dependent Europe was on Russian energy — and to a lesser extent still is. How important is the gas flowing through Sudzha? About 3% of Europe's gas imports flow through Sudzha, part of the roughly 15% of imports that came from Russia last year. But Europe remains on edge about its energy supply given that it's an energy importer and just suffered an outburst of inflation triggered by high energy prices. The Sudzha flows loom larger for Austria, Slovakia and Hungary, who would have to arrange new supply. What is the future of Russian gas flows to Europe? The European Union has come up with a plan to end imports of Russian fossil fuels entirely by 2027. But progress has been uneven lately. Austria increased its Russian gas imports from 80% to 98% over the past two years. While Italy has cut direct imports, it still gets Russian-origin gas through Austria. And Europe continues to import liquefied gas, which made up 6% of imports last year. Trade data indicate LNG shipments to France more than doubled in the first half of this year. Meanwhile EU members Romania and Hungary have made gas deals with Turkey, which imports gas from Russia. Armida van Rijd, senior research fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, says that “Russian gas is being laundered through Azerbaijan and Turkey to meet continued high European demands.” She wrote that European efforts to reduce use of Russian gas are “impressive” so far. But she added that “the political reality is that it is extremely difficult for European countries to fully diversify their energy supplies, when many are already struggling with high inflation and a cost-of-living crisis.”
India imports $2.8 bn crude oil from Russia in July, almost 40% of total oil purchases -India bought USD 2.8 billion worth of crude oil in July from Russia and is the second largest importer, while China remains the largest importer of Russian oil, newswire PTI reported on Friday. India is the world's third-largest oil-consuming and importing nation.Russia became India's biggest supplier of crude oil as Russian oil was given a discount after European nations avoided purchasing it from Moscow following sanctions in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Before the Russia-Ukraine war, Russian imports were less than one per cent of total oil imports. According to reports, Russian imports now form almost 40 per cent of India's total oil purchases.The report, citing the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), said that China has 47 per cent of Russian crude exports, followed by India (37 per cent), the EU (7 per cent), and Turkey (6 per cent).Apart from oil, China and India also bought coal from Russia. “From 5 December 2022 until the end of July 2024, China purchased 45 per cent of all Russia's coal exports followed by India (18 per cent). Turkey (10 per cent), South Korea (10 per cent) and Taiwan (5 per cent) round off the top five buyers list,” it said.“India was the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels in July. Almost 80 per cent of India's imports (valued atIndia, which is more than 85 per cent dependent on imports to meet its oil needs, spent USD 11.4 billion in July to import 19.4 million tonnes of crude oil, the PTIreport said citing official data.In July, the discount on Russian Urals-grade crude oil widened by 9 per cent month-on-month to USD 16.76 per barrel compared to Brent crude oil. The discounts on the ESPO grade and Sokol blends remained relatively stable at USD 4.23 per barrel and USD 6.11 per barrel, respectively.According to the PTI report citing CREA, in July, 36 per cent of Russian seaborne crude oil and its products were transported by tankers regulated under the oil price cap. The rest was shipped by 'shadow' tankers and hence was not subjected to the oil price cap policy.The US and Western nations introduced a price cap policy in late 2022 to maintain the prices of Russian oil coming to the global markets, limiting Russia's revenue from crude sales. Russian cargoes could only get Western services such as insurance and shipping for sales below USD 60 a barrel.To avoid the price cap policy, a dark or shadow fleet of oil tankers emerged. The shadow fleet consists of second-hand and old oil tankers with unclear ownership structures to hold them accountable for and follow Western laws.“81 per cent of the total value of Russian seaborne crude oil was transported by 'shadow' tankers, while tankers owned or insured in countries implementing the price cap accounted for 19 per cent,” the report quoted CREA. “Russia's reliance on tankers that are owned or insured in G7 countries has fallen due to the growth of 'shadow' tankers. This subsequently impacts the coalition's leverage to lower the price cap and hit Russia's oil export revenues,” it added.
Why Oil Prices Fell $10 in a Month -- Over the past month, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has fallen from about $85.00 a barrel to below $75.00 a barrel. Concerns about weaker demand from China have negatively impacted oil prices for a while, and now fears of a U.S. recession have helped further drive prices down. The most recent driver is the negative sentiment pervading the stock market, which has extended its reach into commodities. This heightened volatility has been driven by traders reacting to the fear of a potential U.S. recession, spurred by weaker-than-expected jobs data last Friday. As a result, oil, highly sensitive to economic cycles, has seen a significant downturn in recent weeks. The current decline began with softer U.S. data, including the weaker-than-expected June CPI reading released early in July. “U.S. crude (WTI) pulled back to a 6-month low on Monday as fear took over in markets, with the Japanese Nikkei experiencing the worst performance in 40 years,” notes Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. She adds, “As tends to happen when sentiment takes over, we saw some overreaction in the moves which led to a correction later in the session, supported by stronger ISM non-manufacturing data which helped to calm some of the nerves.” The short-term bias for oil remains to the downside, with further weakness anticipated. The fear of a U.S. recession has dampened future demand expectations, fueling a selling appetite among traders. While ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide a bullish driver for oil prices, demand concerns currently outweigh the possibility of supply disruptions. On the technical front, WTI faces continued downside pressure. Hathorn highlights that “the price has firmly set below its key moving averages, which now provide some resistance on the topside if a reversal were to happen.” Looking ahead, the lack of impactful economic events on the calendar suggests that sentiment will likely drive market momentum. Hathorn points out that “further commentary from central bankers could drive some of the momentum, especially if there is further talk about an out-of-cycle cut this week, even if it seems highly unlikely.” One critical factor to watch in the coming weeks is the response from OPEC+. The group had planned to start increasing production in October but indicated last week that this decision “could be paused or reversed, depending on prevailing market conditions.” Hathorn explains, “It may be the case that the recent drop in prices won’t allow the cartel to reintroduce higher production as it could drive prices even further. If we were to see the decision to increase production pushed back to a later date, we could see a respite for oil prices.” In summary, while the immediate outlook for oil remains bearish due to recession fears and softer U.S. economic data, the potential actions of OPEC+ and geopolitical risks could still play a crucial role in shaping the market dynamics in the near term.
Oil Market Update: U.S. Recession Fears Eased and Concerns Over Tensions in the Middle East Intensified - The oil market continued to trend higher for a fifth consecutive session, extending gains seen in the previous week as U.S. recession fears eased and concerns over tensions in the Middle East intensified. The market remained supported following last week’s better than expected U.S. data. Last week, three U.S. Federal Reserve officials said that inflation appeared to be cooling enough for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as next month. Meanwhile, Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate for the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr. The oil market posted a low of $76.70 on the opening and rallied higher throughout the session, extending its gains to $2.85 as it posted a high of $79.69 ahead of the close. It retraced more than 62% of its move from a high of $83.58 to a low of $71.67. The September WTI contract settled up $3.22 at $80.06 and the Brent contract settled up $2.64 at $82.30. The product markets also ended the session in positive territory, with the heating oil market settling up 6.68 cents at $2.4065 and the RB market settling up 5.26 cents at $2.4429. The U.S. Energy Department said the U.S. is seeking another 6 million barrels of oil to help replenish the SPR. OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024, citing weaker than expected data for the first half of the year and softer expectations for China and also cut its expectation for next year. OPEC, in its monthly report said world oil demand will increase by 2.11 million bpd in 2024, down from growth of 2.25 million bpd expected last month. In the report, OPEC also cut next year’s demand growth estimate to 1.78 million bpd from 1.85 million bpd previously expected. OPEC reported that OPEC+ is pumping 40.9 million bpd in July, up 117,000 bpd on the month, led by an increase from Saudi Arabia. The OPEC report projects demand for OPEC+ crude at 43.8 million bpd in the fourth quarter. The Biden administration said it expects Gaza peace talks to move forward as planned, adding that it believes that a ceasefire agreement is still possible. State Department deputy spokesperson, Vedant Patel, said the department fully expects talks to continue and that it would continue to work with the parties involved, adding that an agreement was still possible. On Sunday, Palestinian militant group Hamas asked mediators to present a plan based upon previous talks instead of engaging in new negotiations for a Gaza ceasefire agreement.According to Axios reporter Barak Ravid, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Sunday that Iran was making preparations for a large-scale military attack on Israel.Platts reported that Saudi Aramco has allocated full term volumes to Asian refiners for September crude loadings.IIR Energy U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 308,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending August 16th, increasing available refining capacity by 354,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 239,000 bpd in the week ending August 23rd.
Oil prices jump on prospect of widening Middle East war shrinking supply (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped by more than 3% on Monday, rising for a fifth consecutive session on expectations of a widening Middle Eastern conflict that could tighten global crude oil supplies. Global benchmark Brent crude futures settled higher at $82.30 a barrel, gaining $2.64, or 3.3%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $80.06 a barrel, up $3.22, or 4.2%. Brent saw its biggest percentage gain for a single trading session this year. The U.S. Defense Department said over the weekend that it will send a guided missile submarine to the Middle East as the region braces for possible attacks on Israel by Iran and allies. "We're piling assets one on top of the other and giving the impression that, if this turns hot, it could also turn ugly," Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate for the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr. An attack could widen the Middle Eastern conflict, while tightening access to global crude supplies and boosting prices. Such an assault could lead the United States to place embargos on Iranian crude exports, potentially affecting 1.5 million barrels per day of supply, Yawger said. Meanwhile, Israeli forces continued operations near the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis on Monday following an airstrike over the weekend on a school compound that killed at least 90 people, according to the Gaza Civil Emergency Service. Israel said the death toll was inflated. Hamascast doubt on its participation in new ceasefire talks on Sunday."The market is increasingly concerned about a region-wide conflict there," A broadening war could lead Israel to target Iranian oil and hamper crude output from other significant producers in the area, including Iraq. Brent gained 3.7% last week while WTI rose 4.5%, buoyed by stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data that fed hopes for an interest-rate cut in the world's biggest consumer of crude oil. "Support is coming from last week's better-than-expected U.S. data, which eased fears of a U.S. recession," Three U.S. central bankers said last week that inflation appeared to be cooling enough for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as next month. Rate cuts tend to raise economic activity, which increases the use of energy sources such as oil. Investors were looking ahead to U.S. consumer price index data for July on Wednesday, which is expected to show month-on-month inflation ticked up to 0.2% after a minus-0.1% reading in June. Oil prices drew support when consumer prices in China, the biggest global oil importer, rose faster than expected in July. On Monday Russia evacuated civilians from parts of a second region next to Ukraine after Kyiv increased military activity near the border only days after its biggest incursion into sovereign Russian territory since the start of the war in 2022.
The IEA Kept its 2024 and 2025 Demand Growth Forecasts Below 1 Million Bpd -- The oil market posted an inside trading day as it gave up some of Monday’s sharp gains on concerns over demand. The IEA kept its 2024 and 2025 demand growth forecasts below 1 million bpd. The IEA kept its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 970,000 bpd but cut its 2025 estimate to 950,000 bpd from a previous estimate of 980,000 bpd, citing the impact of Chinese consumption. The crude market posted a high of $80.15 early in the morning. However, as the market failed to breach Monday’s high of $80.16, it erased its gains and sold off to a low of $78.25 in afternoon trading. The market later settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The oil market ended a five day winning streak with the September WTI contract settling down $1.71 at $78.35 and the October Brent contract settling down $1.61 at $80.69. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 1.73 cents at $2.3892 and the RB market settling down 6.82 cents at $2.3747. The International Energy Agency kept its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 970,000 bpd but cut its 2025 estimate to 950,000 bpd from a previous estimate of 980,000 bpd, citing the impact of Chinese consumption. The IEA said the end of a post-COVID economic bounce in China was limiting global oil demand, but that advanced economies, specifically the United States, where one-third of global gasoline is consumed, compensated for that loss. The IEA added that the summer driving season in the United States is set to be the strongest since the pandemic and supply cuts by OPEC+ are tightening the physical market. The IEA reported that global observed oil inventories fell by 26.2 million barrels in June following four months of builds.The National Oil Corp said a fire on Libya’s Zaggut-Sidra oil pipeline has been extinguished with no damage or casualties. The fire started during maintenance operations which will continue for a few more hours. Earlier, a port engineer and a Waha company source said the pipeline pumping oil from Libya’s Waha field to Es Sider port was affected by a fire that broke out on the pipeline on Monday, but added that there has been no impact on exports. The source said the incident had no impact on production or exports.Motiva Enterprises began restarting a fluidic catalytic cracker at its 626,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas refiner on Tuesday. The 81,000 bpd fluid catalytic cracker was shut on July 24th for repair of a leak. Further leaks were discovered after the initial leak, extending the time the unit was shut to two weeks.Pemex’s Deer Park, Texas facility reported a diesel spill into the Houston Ship Channel on Tuesday. The refinery said it had isolated the site.ExxonMobil on Monday said it has safely restarted its 241,800 b/d refinery in the wake of the July 15th abrupt plant wide shut down.U.S. producer prices increased less than expected in July as an increase in the cost of goods was tempered by cheaper services, indicating that inflation continued to moderate. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1% in July after increasing by an unrevised 0.2% in June. In the 12 months through July, the PPI increased 2.2% after increasing 2.7% in June. Excluding food, energy and trade, prices increased 0.3% after increasing 0.1% in June. The core PPI increased 3.3% on the year after increasing 3.2% in June.
Oil prices end lower as Iran attack fears fade and focus turns to demand -- Oil futures ended lower on Tuesday, consolidating after a five-day winning streak, as fears of an imminent Iranian strike on Israel faded and investors turned their attention back to concerns about the outlook for crude demand. West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for September delivery CL.1 CLU24 fell $1.71, or 2.1%, to close at $78.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. October Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled with a loss of $1.61, or 2%, at $80.69 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Back on Nymex, September gasoline dropped 2.8% to end at $2.3747 a gallon, while September heating oil HOU24 shed 0.7% to $2.3892 a gallon.Natural gas for September delivery NGU24 dropped 1.9%, ending at $2.148 per million British thermal units. Crude oil posted a five-day rally, with WTI and Brent scoring August highs on Monday, in a move driven in part by fears of an imminent retaliatory strike by Iran on Israel following the assassination late last month of a top Hamas official in Tehran. "WTI crude is journeying south following a five-day winning streak ... mainly because an expected Middle Eastern escalation hasn't materialized" and, to a lesser extent, because of concerns about the demand outlook, Iran has vowed to retaliate against Israel for the assassination of a top Hamas official in Tehran on July 31. Israel, which has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement in the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, put its military on high alert on Monday after observing preparations by Iran and militant group Hezbollah for a potential strike, according to the Wall Street Journal. Reuters on Tuesday reported that Iranian officials said only a ceasefire deal in Gaza stemming from possible talks this week would prevent direct retaliation. In its monthly report, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said it expects demand to rise by less than 1 million barrels a day in both 2024 and 2025, largely unchanged from its July report and far slower than the rise of 2.1 mbd seen last year, due to "comparatively lackluster" macroeconomic drivers. The IEA said that even if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies - known as OPEC+ - don't follow through with their plan to begin gradually unwinding some production cuts in the fourth quarter, global inventories could build by an average of 860,000 barrels a day next year as non-OPEC+ supply increases of around 1.5 mbd in 2024 and again in 2025 more than cover expected demand growth. OPEC on Monday slightly lowered its forecast for demand growth for 2024 and 2025, citing softness in China. OPEC's demand-growth forecasts continue to run much higher than the IEA's at 2.11 mbd in 2024 and 1.78 mbd next year. Despite demand concerns, "downside potential in oil prices could be limited as geopolitical tensions persist, contributing to market uncertainty and supporting crude prices. Markets are on edge regarding potential confrontations in the Middle East that could disrupt oil supplies," Crude prices had surged on Monday as worries over a broader Middle East conflict intensified. WTI jumped more than 4%, while Brent rallied 3.3%.
Oil Prices Rise on an Inventory Draw and Hopes of an Interest Rate Cut --Crude oil prices started trade today in Asia with gains following an industry report that saw yet another weekly decline in inventories as well as a smaller-than-expected increase in producer prices that fueled hopes for a rate cut.The American Petroleum Institute reportedan estimated oil inventory decline of 5 million barrels for last week, following a week of a moderate increase. Based on API weekly data, U.S. oil inventories have gained some 400,000 barrels in total since the start of the year. The EIA will report inventory figures later today.Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.1% increase in producer prices for July, which was below expectations, with the cost of services declining at the fastest rate in nearly 18 months, Reuters noted in a report. The data seems to have reinforced hopes of a rate cut but such a move by the Fed is far from certain.“Producer price increases cooled this month which is good news for the Fed's inflation fight, but there is no PPI deflation, so Fed officials do not have to rush to judgment and bring rate cuts forward because the economy is headed downhill,” The price jump today follows a 2% drop in prices on Tuesday, which in turn followed the release of the International Energy Agency’s outlook for oil, which featured a warning about slowing demand growth next year. The IEA saw oil demand growing by a modest 950,000 bpd in 2025—a 30,000-bpd downward revision from earlier estimates.The IEA also expected oil markets to swing into a surplus in the final quarter of this year but only if OPEC started unwinding its production cuts, which the cartel has said repeatedly it would only do if the market conditions are conducive to such a move.While the IEA maintained its outlook for global oil demand growth, OPEC lowered its demand growth forecast earlier in the week. The cartel justified the alteration by pointing to disappointing Chinese demand, a factor that has been driving bearish sentiment in markets all year.While oil prices have fallen dramatically over the past month, there has been a relatively strong recovery of late as U.S. recession fears fade, with WTI now moving toward the $79 mark and Brent trading comfortably above $81.
WTI Extends Losses Despite Cushing Stocks Tumbling To 6-Month Lows - Oil prices are lower this morning - following bond yields, bitcoin and big-cap all lower post-CPI - erasing the small gains overnight following API's reported big crude draw. "Macroeconomic eyes remain very much glued on the state of inflation in the United States this week. With US PPI coming in 0.1% softer-than-expected yesterday, any such replication in the CPI reading today will hear not only a clamour of calls for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates but see another bout of speculative equity buying," PVM Oil Associates noted. For now, the official DOE data will likely decide the next leg.API
- Crude: -5.2mm
- Cushing: -2.277mm
- Gasoline: -3.689mm
- Distillate: +612k
DOE
- Crude: +1.36mm
- Cushing: -1.665mm
- Gasoline: -2.894mm
- Distillate: -1.673mm
Bucking the API reported draw, DOE official data reports that crude stocks rose last week, ending a six-week streak of draws, but Cushing stockpiles continued to sink as did product inventories... Stocks at the Cushing hub fell to their lowest since Febr The Biden admin added 694k barrels of oil to the SPR... For context, there's a long way to go.. US Crude production dipped off record highs... WTI is extending its losses for now... Graphs Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices fall after Biden says Iran could refrain from attacking Israel if cease-fire reached - Oil futures fell Wednesday with U.S. crude closing below $77 per barrel, after President Joe Biden said Iran might refrain from attacking Israel if a cease-fire deal is reached in Gaza. Biden told reporters Tuesday afternoon his "expectation" is Iran would not strike Israel if a deal is clinched to stop the fighting in Gaza, though he said efforts to broker a cease-fire are "getting hard."A new round of cease-fire talks is scheduled to begin Thursday in Qatar, though Hamas told Reuters that the militant group does not plan to take part in the negotiations.Here are Wednesday's closing energy prices:
- West Texas Intermediate September contract: $76.98 per barrel, down $1.37, or 1.75%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has gained 7.4%.
- Brent October contract: $79.76 per barrel, down 93 cents, or 1.15%. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead 3.53%.
- RBOB Gasoline September contract: $2.32 per gallon, down more than 5 cents, or 2.26% Year to date, gasoline is up 10.4%.
- Natural Gas September contract: $2.22 per thousand cubic feet, up 7 cents, or 3.31%. Year to date, gas is down 11.7%.
Iran had vowed to retaliate against Israel after a Hamas leader was assassinated in Tehran two weeks ago. Israel has put its military on high alert, and the U.S. is dispatching a carrier strike group and guided-missile submarine to the region to help defend its ally.U.S. crude oil prices jumped more than 4% on Monday on escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, but have sincepulled back as softening demand in China has weighed on the market."There is still a prevailing view in Washington that Iran does not want a regional war, preferring a grey-zone, proxy conflict," Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told clients in a research note Tuesday.But the White House efforts to contain the conflict may prove difficult, with a cease-fire deal in Gaza still elusive, according to Croft. Delaying an attack by Iran beyond this week "seems precarious," she wrote.U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 9, while gasoline stocks fell by 2.9 million barrels, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration Wednesday.Matt Smith, lead oil analyst for the Americas at Kpler, said a modest increase in demand and lower production led to draws for gasoline and diesel. Summer driving season is nearing its end, while hurricane activity will likely ramp up this month before peaking in early September, Smith said.
Oil prices settle 1% lower after surprise rise in US crude stockpiles - Oil prices settled 1% lower on Wednesday after U.S. crude inventories rose unexpectedly and as worries eased slightly that a wider Middle East conflict could threaten supplies from one of the world's major regions for crude production.Brent crude futures closed 93 cents lower, or 1.15%, at $79.76 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.37, or 1.8%, to $76.98 per barrel. U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.4 million barrels, compared with estimates for a 2.2 million barrel drop, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed. The build was the first after six straight weeks of draws. "That six week draw was a pretty impressive but that's in the rearview mirror." Gasoline and distillate inventories fell more than expected.American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday had pointed to a 5.21 million barrel drop last week.Brent had risen more than 3% on Monday to cap a five-day run of gains, closing at $82.30 a barrel, after hitting a seven-month low of $76.30 at the beginning of last week.Iran had vowed a severe response to the killing of the leader of Hamas late last month. Three senior Iranian officials have said that only a ceasefire deal in Gaza would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement, but it is fighting in Gaza against Hamas after the group attacked Israel in October. To counter Iran, the United States Navy has deployed warships and a submarine to the Middle East. "Tighter supplies (from geopolitical tensions) are well priced in," DEMAND WOES Also hindering oil price gains, the International Energy Agency on Tuesday trimmed its 2025 estimate for oil demand growth, citing the impact of a weakened Chinese economy on consumption. That came after OPEC cut expected demand for 2024 for similar reasons. A recent string of dismal indicators have dulled expectations for July economic performance in China, feeding worries about the world's second-largest economy. Globally, jet fuel demand is also poised to soften as a slowdown in consumer spending hits travel budgets, a shift that could weigh on oil prices in coming months."Summer driving season is having its last hurrah, with schools returning and Labor Day fast approaching." U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in July and the annual increase in inflation slowed to below 3% for the first time since early 2021, strengthening expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. Lower interest rates can boost economic activity and oil demand. British consumer price inflation picked up less than expected in July, boosting rate cut bets. Providing a floor for crude prices, Libya's Waha oil company's production was reduced by 115,000 barrels per day due to maintenance on the pipeline pumping oil from the Waha field to Es Sider port, a company source told Reuters on Wednesday.
Oil Prices Rise Amid Hopes of US Interest Rate Cuts | Sada Elbalad - Oil prices rose in early Thursday trading, recovering some of the losses from the previous session. The market was buoyed by hopes that a potential cut in U.S. interest rates could stimulate economic activity and fuel demand. However, ongoing concerns about a global demand slowdown capped the gains. Brent crude futures climbed 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $79.93 per barrel by 00:29 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $77.21 per barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen by over 1% on Wednesday following the unexpected rise in U.S. crude inventories and a reduction in fears about the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Yuki Takashima, an economist at Nomura Securities, commented, "We witnessed a correction in Asian trading, as Wednesday's oil market sell-off was excessive." He added that investors are betting on the Federal Reserve beginning to cut interest rates next month. He continued, "However, oil prices are expected to remain under pressure in the coming period as global demand concerns persist, particularly in China." He predicted that WTI crude could head toward the $72 mark in early August. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday revealed that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 1.4 million barrels in the week ending August 9, compared to estimates of a 2.2 million barrel decline. This marks the first increase in inventories since late June. Earlier this week, the International Energy Agency reduced its 2025 oil demand growth estimates, citing the impact of a weakening Chinese economy on consumption. This followed a similar move by OPEC, which cut its demand forecast for 2024 for similar reasons. Amid demand concerns, oil prices were also supported by investor anxiety over Iran's potential response to the killing of a Hamas leader last month. Three senior Iranian officials stated that only a ceasefire agreement in Gaza would prevent Iran from retaliating directly against Israel for the assassination. On Wednesday, Hamas announced it would not participate in a new round of ceasefire talks in Gaza scheduled for Thursday in Qatar, dampening hopes for a negotiated truce.
Oil rises nearly 2% on upbeat US economic data, geopolitical tension (Reuters) - Oil prices gained more than $1 a barrel on Thursday after U.S. economic data allayed fears of recession in the world's biggest economy, although the rally was limited by concerns of slower global demand. Brent crude futures settled up $1.28, or 1.6%, at $81.04 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by $1.18, or 1.53%, to $78.16. Data showed U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in July. Another report showed a smaller-than-expected increase in the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits."The positive economic data serve as an indicator that we're heading towards a soft landing," Data from the Labor Department on Wednesday showed U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in July. This reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month, which could boost economic activity and oil consumption. Oil prices also drew support from worries about how Iran would respond to the killing of the leader of the Palestinian militant group Hamas last month."Geopolitics and the risk of an expanding conflict in the Middle East are propping up prices, as the threats of retaliation continue to grow louder," A new round of Gaza ceasefire talks was underway in the Qatari capital Doha, as Palestinian health authorities said the death toll from the war surpassed 40,000 and pressure to end the war in the Palestinian enclave mounted. The Russia-Ukraine conflict also kept prices elevated. Russia said on Thursday it would beef up border defenses, improve command and control and send in additional forces, days after Ukraine made the biggest attack on its sovereign territory since World War Two. Both main oil benchmarks had fallen more than 1% on Wednesday after U.S. crude inventories increased unexpectedly.U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by 1.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 9, compared with estimates for a 2.2 million barrel draw, building for the first time since late June. China's factory output growth slowed in July, while refinery output fell for a fourth month, underscoring the country's spotty economic recovery and limiting the upside for crude markets on Thursday.
Oil sits 2% lower after China data fuels demand concerns amid US Fed rate cut hopes; Brent slips below $80/bbl - Global crude oil prices settled down nearly two per cent in the previous session, with Brent crude below $80 a barrel, as investors tempered expectations of demand growth from top oil importer China. Crude oil prices were little changed on the week after Wall Street lifted US Fed's interest rate cut bets. Brent crude futures fell $1.36, or 1.7 per cent, to settle at $79.68 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined by $1.51, or 1.9 per cent, to $76.65. Last week, Brent crude ended at $79.66 a barrel, and WTI closed at $76.84. Regarding domestic prices, crude oil futures settled 0.6 per cent lower at ₹6,448 per barrel on the multi-commodity exchange (MCX).
- -On Thursday, data from China showed its economy lost momentum in July, with new home prices falling at the fastest pace in nine years, industrial output slowing, and unemployment rising. That has stoked worries among traders about a slump in demand from the top oil importer, where refineries sharply cut crude processing rates last month on tepid fuel demand.
- -The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its forecast for this year's oil demand growth on Monday, citing softness in China. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) also cited weak demand in China when it slashed its 2025 forecasts on Tuesday.
- -Analysts said that it had been a volatile week in oil markets. On the one hand, there were fears of supply disruptions from a wider Middle East war. Still, slowing growth in China forced revisions of demand forecasts. Analysts added that low liquidity likely fed price volatility this week as many European and North American investors were still on holiday.
- -Oil futures rallied at the start of the week as traders braced for retaliation by Iran against Israel over the slaying of a Hamas leader in Tehran last month. However, some of that risk was priced out because Iran has not struck yet. Analysts said that supply disruptions in the oil market have been more theoretical than actual, allowing the market to focus on demand.
- -A fresh round of Gaza ceasefire talks began on Thursday in Qatar. They have been paused until next week, with involved parties sending mixed signals on progress. Analysts said that provided the situation in the Middle East does not escalate further, the oil price is likely to tread water.
- -A string of data releases from the US kept a floor under oil prices: retail sales beat analysts' expectations, and fewer Americans filed new jobless claims last week, sparking renewed optimism around economic growth in the biggest oil market. Oil prices could lack direction until the US Federal Reserve decides whether to cut interest rates at its September meeting.
‘’Oil prices slipped to $76.83/bbl on Wednesday due to expectations that Iran might refrain from attacking Israel, coupled with an unexpected 1.4 million-barrel increase in US oil inventories,'' ‘’Markets are closely monitoring the Israel-Iran situation, with reports that US President Biden has dispatched three top Middle East advisers to the region this week to help delay potential Iranian and Hezbollah military retaliation against Israel,'' Analysts said that prospects of possible Federal Reserve rate cuts in upcoming policy meetings also bolstered crude oil prices. However, gains are capped by an unexpected build in US oil inventories and mixed economic data from China. ‘’Chinese industrial production grew at a slower pace than anticipated, while the unemployment rate climbed to 5.2 per cent last month, up from five per cent in the previous month. We anticipate that crude oil prices will remain volatile. Crude oil has support at $76.30-75.60 and resistance at $77.50-78.20. In INR, crude oil has support at ₹6,410-6,350 and resistance at ₹6,555-6,610,' said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd.
U.S. crude oil falls more than 1% as Gaza cease-fire talks, global demand weigh on market --U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 1% on Friday amid reports that Qatar told Iran to not attack Israel while Gaza cease-fire talks are ongoing.Qatar's prime minister told Iran's leaders in a phone call after the first day of Gaza cease-fire talks in Doha Thursday that they should de-escalate, warning of the consequences of attacking Israel when progress is being made in the negotiations, two diplomats told The Washington Post.The U.S. benchmark ended the week slightly down, 0.25%, while Brent marginally gained 0.03%.Here are Friday's closing energy prices:
- West Texas Intermediate September contract: $76.65 per barrel, down $1.51, or 1.93%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has gained 6.98%.
- Brent September contract: $79.68 per barrel, down $1.36, or 1.68%. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead 3.43%.
- RBOB Gasoline September contract: $2.31 per gallon, down more than 4 cents, or 2.03%. Year to date, gasoline is up 9.87%.
- Natural Gas September contract: $2.12 per thousand cubic feet, down 7 cents, or 3.37%. Year to date, gas is down 15.5%.
The cease-fire talks were paused Friday, with negotiations expected to resume next week. Hamas did not participate in the talks, but was briefed by mediators. A senior official with the militant group told Reuters that Israel "did not abide by what was agreed upon" in earlier round of negotiations. Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, said the risk premium appears to be "seeping out of energy markets once again, suggesting traders are curiously disregarding the risk of geopolitical aggressions ahead of the weekend." The U.S. benchmark jumped more than 4% on Monday on fears that an attack by Iran on Israel was drawing closer. Iran has vowed to retaliate over the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran in late July. Prices have subsequently pulled back as an assault has not yet materialized. Worries about softening oil demand in China have also weighed on the market, with OPEC lowering its forecast for 2024. Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with the Price Futures Group, said the market appears to be "buying into the thought that global demand growth might not be as strong as some people had originally thought." "The pendulum of price influence keeps swinging between fundamentals and geopolitics, with today's selloff seemingly dictated by negotiations in the Middle East and an ongoing lack of retaliation by Iran,"
The Real Reason Iran Hasn’t Retaliated Against Israel -Iran has kept the world on edge since it promised to strike Israel more than two weeks ago -- a move experts say could plunge the region into an all-out war.The promised attack by Islamic republic is meant as retaliation for the July 31 killing in Tehran of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameneisaid after the assassination that Iran was "duty-bound" to avenge its "guest."An Iranian attack has been "imminent" for the past two weeks, and this anticipation has led to frequent bouts of hysteria on social media predicting an attack by Iran and its allies -- including Lebanese militant group Hizballah -- within hours. "I think they really enjoy that: watching Israel stuck in this waiting period, paying a heavy economic and psychological price," said Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.But the fallout from the anticipation is a double-edged sword that also hurts Iran and its allies."The negative impact on Israel, be it the stress to the home front, the military mobilization, and even the economic consequences, will not be limited to Israel, but also affect Iran and Lebanon," warned Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy. Analysts said the idea Iran is delaying its retaliation because it is relishing the psychological impact it is having is more of an excuse than a proper strategy. They agreed intense domestic debates, the complexity of coordinating with proxies, and assessing the risks associated with an attack have all contributed to Iran's hesitation. Zimmt said Iran is "facing a major dilemma" because while Khamenei and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) want to restore Iran's deterrence vis-a-vis Israel, there are elements in Iran that worry a large-scale attack could drag Iran into a war with Israel and maybe even the United States. Even if a decision on how to respond to Haniyeh's killing has been made, coordinating with Hizballah and other members of the so-called axis of resistance -- Tehran's loosely knit network of regional state and nonstate allies and proxies -- is a time-consuming process. Another factor likely affecting Iran's decision-making is the United States beefing up its military presence in the region more than it did in April ahead of Iran's unprecedented drone and missile attack against Israel. "We're seeing a bigger response [from the United States] than in April, which is probably meant to match the scope of the threat, as Iran may carry out a larger response than the one in April," Horowitz said. "The message [from the United States] in sending both defensive assets -- but also potentially offensive ones -- is one of deterrence and perhaps the only kind of message that does truly matter at this stage." Tehran has rebuffed calls by Western nations to show restraint, insisting it has a legitimate right to respond to Israel's killing of Haniyeh on Iranian territory. Still, the flurry of phone calls made to new President Masud Pezeshkian and acting Foreign Minister Ali Baqeri-Kani have raised speculation that attempts at diplomacy have helped delay an attack and could potentially stave it off."I am skeptical that diplomacy, on its own, is enough to truly change the Iranian calculus," Horowitz said. "Iran will do what it feels is in its best interest, regardless of the calls and statements urging restraint." But Iran has suggested a different kind of diplomacy could convince it to at least "delay" its promised attack: a permanent cease-fire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas. Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, speculated Iran "may be looking for off-ramps" to justify a toned-down response, and some kind of Gaza cease-fire could be just the "diplomatic victory" it needs to do that. Zimmt said a Gaza cease-fire may not be important to Iran but it does provide Tehran with "an excuse or an explanation to legitimize this delay, both internally and mostly externally."He said a cease-fire could lead to Iran either reducing the scale of its attack or choosing a different method of retaliation altogether that does not involve a direct strike on Israel.It remains a mystery when and how Iran is going to respond, but as things stand Tehran does not seem to have any good options."Decision-makers in Tehran may have vacillated in finding a 'Goldilocks' option," Sabet said.That, he explained, is Iran's conundrum to deliver "a retaliatory strike that is not so weak as to have little symbolic or deterrent value, but not so strong as to cause an uncontrolled cycle of escalation that leads to a larger war."Tehran is effectively left with either a weak response or one that crosses the threshold of war.Both options "entail significant risks," Horowitz said, "either for Iran's regional projection power or the risks Iran could take if it crosses a line and is hit back in return."
Iraq Weekly Roundup: 33 Killed - At least 33 people were killed in recent violence:
- A Turkish soldier was killed in an incident involving Kurdistan Workers’ Party (P.K.K.) guerrillas in Duhok province.
- Turkish strikes in northern Iraq killed 17 guerrillas belonging to Kurdistan Workers’ Party (P.K.K.) forces.
- Four P.K.K. guerrillas were killed in earlier airstrikes.
- Turkish airstrikes also killed eight P.K.K. militants early last week.
- A militia member was killed during an ISIS attack in Tuz Khormato.
- ISIS gunmen killed two security members during a clash in a rural area ofQopi Qaradagh.
Israel Says Iran Poised For Major Retaliation; US Deploys Sub, Hurries Carrier Group -- In a significant shift in its recent assessment of Iran's intentions, Israeli intelligence reportedly now believes that Iran is preparing a major strike on Israel after all -- and that it will happen in the next few days. This comes after Israel had concluded that international pressure and US saber-rattling had persuaded Iran to leave it to Lebanese militant group Hezbollah to strike Israel for blowing up Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31.Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant shared his country's latest assessment with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in a Sunday conversation, Axios reported -- telling Austin that Iranian actions signify the country is readying a major strike. Also on Sunday, Gallant told an Israeli Defense Forces unit that Iran and Hezbollah "are threatening to harm us in a way they haven't done in the past."Israeli intelligence's see-sawing assessment reflects an ongoing debate inside the Iranian government, a source with access to the intelligence told Axios: The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps [IRGC] is pushing for a more severe and broader response than Iran's April 13 attack on Israel, but the new Iranian president and his advisers believe a regional escalation now wouldn't serve Iran's interests, the source said.A Pentagon spokesman said Austin assured Gallant that America is committed “to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of U.S. military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions.”The strengthening of the US force posture included the deployment of the USS Georgia guided missile submarine to the Central Command theater. Armed with up to 154 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles, the Kings Bay, Georgia-based vessel recently completed joint training exercises in the Mediterranean with force recon Marines and special operations forces, including units from the UK, Norway and Italy. Austin also ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, already steaming to the conflict zone laden with F-35C and F/A-18 fighters, to "accelerate its transit", the Pentagon said.
Massive Cyberattack Cripples Central Bank Of Iran: Report -- The opposition and Saudi-affiliated Iran International is reporting that the Central Bank of Iran has been hit with a large-scale cyber attack which is caused major disruption to the banking system across the Islamic Republic. The outlet says the impact of the attack if far-reaching, suggesting it could be one of the largest cyberattacks on Iran's state infrastructure to date, coming amid soaring regional tensions with Israel. Earlier Wednesday, Iran's Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned the country about threats of irregular warfare, stating, "The exaggeration of our enemies' capabilities is intended to spread fear among our people by the US, Britain, and the Zionists. The enemies' hand is not as strong as it is publicized. We must rely on ourselves."He continued, "The enemy's goal is to spread psychological warfare to push us into political and economic retreat and achieve its objectives."Could this reported major cyber attack be the work of Israeli intelligence? Likely many in Iran believe so.Ironically it comes on the heels of claims by US officials and in Western media that Iranian state hackers are actively working toinfluence and interfere in the upcoming US elections.However, there has been no proof of these allegations, but only references to poorly made spoof websites which seek to influence either conservative or liberal voters.As for these Wednesday reports of a major cyber attack targeting Iranian banking, a story picked up in Israeli media as well, Iranian officials have not given official confirmation and state media sources remain silent thus far.
One Step Away From The Biggest Oil Shock In History -- The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow strip of water that links the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world. It’s the world’s single-most important energy corridor, and there’s no alternative route. Five of the world’s top 10 oil-producing countries—Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait—border the Persian Gulf, as does Qatar, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter. The Strait of Hormuz is their only sea route to the open ocean… and world markets. At its narrowest point, the space available for shipping lanes is just 3.2 kilometers wide. According to the US Energy Information Administration, more than 40% of global oil exports (around 21 million barrels) transit the Strait daily. That’s more than $1.5 billion worth of oil every day. And that’s not considering the immense amount of LNG— about 33% of the world’s daily LNG exports—and other goods transiting the Strait. It’s hard to overstate the importance of the Strait of Hormuz to the global economy. If someone were to disrupt the Strait, it would cause immediate global economic chaos as energy prices skyrocket. Thanks to its commanding geography and expertise in unconventional and asymmetric warfare, Iran can shut down the Strait, and there’s not much anyone can do about it. It’s Iran’s geopolitical trump card. Analysts believe it would take weeks for the US military to reopen it, but nobody really knows if it would ultimately be successful. The Millennium Challenge 2002 war game suggests it wouldn’t be. Military strategists have known about this situation for decades. But no one has found a realistic way to neutralize Iran’s power over the Strait. Iran has been crystal clear that it will close the Strait in the case Israel or the US attacks it. In other words, Iran holds a knife to the throat of the global economy. The US has sought to overthrow the Iranian government since the 1979 Revolution—for over 40 years. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz has always served as a big deterrent to US regime change ambitions and invasion plans. Now, Iran and the US are headed toward a confrontation that will almost certainly disrupt the Strait. The potential outbreak of an enormous regional war in the Middle East could force the US to act against Iran this time. If war breaks out between the US and Iran—an increasingly likely outcome—I have no doubt that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz. To call that a severe oil supply disruption would be a major understatement.
Airlines suspend flights as Middle East tensions rise (Reuters) - Concerns over a wider conflict in the Middle East have prompted international airlines to suspend flights to the region or to avoid affected air space.Below are some of the airlines that have adjusted services to and from the region:
Israeli strike on Gaza school threatens cease-fire, hostage release talks - An Israeli strike that hit a school in Gaza over the weekend, killing about 100 people, Palestinian officials say, has endangered upcoming cease-fire and hostage release talks between Israel and Hamas. Israel says it targeted the Al-Tabaeen School in Gaza City on Saturday because Hamas fighters were sheltering there, but the strike has fueled concern in Washington and is threatening to undo U.S. progress toward a negotiated deal. Talks were scheduled to continue Thursday after President Biden joined the leaders of Qatar and Egypt last week in urging Israel and Hamas to meet in Cairo or Doha and wrap up the final phases of the long-awaited deal. Hamas said in a statement on Telegram it agreed to an updated proposal on the deal July 2, but that new demands from Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicates his country wants to keep fighting in Gaza rather than negotiate. The strike on the school is a “heinous crime,” Hamas added, calling on the U.S. and other mediators to compel Israel to agree to the July 2 proposal rather than “provide cover” for more attacks in Gaza. Osama Hamdan, a senior Hamas leader, told a Lebanon channel Monday that Israel “wants to escape the obligations of a cease-fire,” reiterating his support for the proposal already on the table instead of more talks.“There is a document that we have already agreed on,” he said. “We are waiting for the announcement of implementation mechanisms, including the cessation of aggression, withdrawal of Israeli occupation forces, aid delivery, and reconstruction in the Gaza Strip.”The Israeli military claimed Hamas was holding fighters at the school, a charge the Palestinian militant group has denied.“There have been a confirmed 31 terrorists eliminated in the strike on the Hamas stronghold in the Al-Taba’een school, where the terrorists planned to execute attacks against Israel,” the Israeli military said in a post on the social platform X.Military spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said in a video address that forces targeted one specific building in the compound with precise weapons where women and children were not present.Still, the Israeli strike on Al-Tabaeen has led to more international condemnation of Israel’s war in Gaza, where nearly 40,000 Palestinians have died in more than 10 months of war.
Biden, European Leaders Tell Iran to 'Stand Down' Amid Frenzied Speculation --In a familiar refrain of the past several days, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Monday the military is on "peak alert" for an attack from Iran or Hezbollah. The White House too believes an attack is imminent or at least within "days" away. At the same time a senior Israeli official told Axios: "The Iranians openly signal (on the ground) their determination to carry out a significant attack in addition to their public statements that the attack will exceed the one they carried out in April."The official additionally observed that "Iranian public statements do not reflect any retreat." Warnings from the West urging Tehran to not retaliate have been on repeat for a week-and-a-half following the July 31st Israeli killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The US has been joined by European countries in calling on Iran to "stand down" amid reports of significant Iranian and Hezbollah weapons movement and positioning.US President Joe Biden alongside the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy issued a fresh joint statement Monday: "We called on Iran to stand down its ongoing threats of a military attack against Israel and discussed the serious consequences for regional security should such an attack take place," a joint statement said after their presidents and prime ministers spoke by phone.As for the IDF, its latest statement also described that the Israeli Air Force has increased its patrols over Lebanon "to detect and intercept threats." "We view the statements of our enemies seriously, and are therefore prepared at the highest level of readiness for defense and attack," it continued.Even the Vatican has tried to intervene toward preventing a broader regional war:Following Haniyeh’s assassination, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Haniyeh’s death would “not pass in vain,” and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that “blood vengeance” for the killing is “certain.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian furthered those threats on Monday, telling a Vatican official in a phone call that the assassination warrants Iran’s right to “self defense” and to “respond to an aggressor,” Iranian state news agency IRNA reported.Meanwhile amid fears of the wider Israeli confrontation with the 'Iran axis', the IDF has kept up its operations and strikes inside Gaza.
Alaskan F-22 Fighters Forward Deployed to Support Israel Against Iran: Qatari Airbase Plays Host The U.S. Air Force has forward deployed 12 F-22 Raptor fifth generation fighters to an unconfirmed location in the Middle East. The aircraft are permanently stationed at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska, and transferred through Royal Air Force (RAF) Lakenheath in the United Kingdom before being forward deployed under the U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for the Middle Eastern theatre. The deployment comes as part of a broader surge in the American military presence in the region, which is intended to maximise Washington’s ability to respond to expected military retaliation by Iran against America’s close security partner Israel. Israel on July 31 launched an unprecedented attack on the Iranian capital Tehran. Among the casualties from the Israeli strike was Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau Ismail Haniyeh. Iran previously responded to an Israeli attack on its territory in April, after an Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus killed two senior generals and 11 others, many of them diplomats. When Iran subsequently retaliated with drone and missile strikes on Israeli targets on April 13, an increased American military presence in the region was key to blunting the impact of the attacks. The expansion of the American military presence thus follows the pattern seen in early-mid April. The F-22 is one of two fifth generation fighter classes fielded by the United States and its allies, and was intended to serve as a heavier more capable counterpart to the cheaper F-35. Issues with the F-22 program, however, resulted in a 75 percent cut to planned production, with the aircraft’s avionics increasingly considered obsolete, particularly compared to new. F-35 variants and to the rival Chinese J-20 fifth generation fighter. The F-22 was initially intended to partly bridge the range gap between top American and Russian fighters favouring the latter, although the program failed to meet these requirements resulting in a fighter with the shortest ranged of any in the world of its size. This is a serious limiting factor in the Middle East in particular, where aircraft are required to cover vast distances for offensive operations, and would see their stealth capabilities compromised by carriage of external fuel tanks or by refuelling operations in the air. Although F-22s were previously stationed at Al Dhafra Airbase in Abu Dhabi, where they were employed for incursions into Syrian airspace to confront Russian and Syrian forces, as well as for strikes on targets in Afghanistan, there have been multiple indications that basing in the country is no longer favoured. The U.S. Air Force in May notably transferred multiple fighter units from bases in the United Arab Emirates to its facilities in Qatar, following a growing rift in relations between Washington and Abu Dhabi as the UAE government made clear it would not allow American air strikes on neighbouring countries from its soil unless it was informed beforehand. The UAE has resisted American pressure to ban the use of telecommunications equipment from the Chinese firm Huawei, and in 2021 also became the first Gulf state ever to place orders for Chinese fighter planes, while Western sources have also alleged that the country has begun to host Chinese military facilities on its soil. These among other factors have led Washington to seek to reduce reliance on military facilities in the country. Unlike Abu Dhabi, Doha has aligned itself very closely with Western Bloc interests, and is accordingly designated a Major Non-NATO Ally of the United States. Alongside F-22s, Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar is reported to have also begun hosting a squadron of U.S. Navy 5th Fleet F-18E/F Super Hornet fighters and an E-2 airborne early warning and control system on August 7. Al Udeid notably first hosted F-22s in June 2019.
White House Says US Is Prepared To Defend Israel From 'Significant' Attack - The White House said Monday that the US is prepared to defend Israel from a “significant” Iranian reprisal attack as the US continues to bolster its forces in the region.The US and Israel are expecting Iran to launch its response to the Israeli killing of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, and think the attack could happen this week. Iran’s allies, including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi Shia militias, may participate in the operation.“We share the same concerns and expectations that our Israeli counterparts have with respect to potential timing here. Could be this week,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters. “We have to be prepared for what could be a significant set of attacks.”The US helped defend Israel when Iran launched its first-ever attack on Israeli territory in April, which was provoked by the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria.“We obviously don’t want to see Israel have to defend itself against another onslaught, like they did in April. But, if that’s what comes at them, we will continue to help them defend themselves,” Kirby said.A day earlier, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, that he had ordered the deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group to be “accelerated.” He also told Gallant that the US is sending the USS Georgia, a guided-missile submarine.“Secretary Austin reiterated the United States’ commitment to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of US military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions,” the Pentagon said in a readout of the call.The new pledges from the US to defend Israel came after a poll conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that the majority of Americans (56%) oppose the idea of using US troops to defend Israel from Iran.
Documents Confirm Netanyahu Sabotaged Ceasefire Talks With New Demands - Documents obtained by The New York Times confirmed that Israel added new demands to the ceasefire proposal unveiled by President Biden back in May, an effort by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to sabotage the chances of a deal.The Times report said that Israeli negotiators believed Netanyahu’s added demands created more obstacles to a deal. This has also been acknowledgedby Mossad Director David Barnea, the Israeli official in charge of the peace talks.The new demands included a screening mechanism for the Israeli military to ensure displaced Palestinians returning to northern Gaza were not armed and indefinite Israeli control of the Gaza-Egypt border, which is not only opposed by Hamas but also by the Egyptian government.In response to the Times report, Netanyahu acknowledged the documents were authentic but claimed he didn’t add new demands. “The charge that Prime Minister Netanyahu added new conditions to the May 27 proposal is false. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s July 27 letter does not introduce extra conditions and certainly does not contradict or undermine the May 27 proposal,” his office said in a statement.Concerning the return of Palestinians to northern Gaza, Netanyahu’s office said the proposal made in May states only “unarmed civilians will be permitted” to cross into northern Gaza. The May proposal does say that displaced Palestinians returning to their homes should not be carrying arms, but it also says the entire population of Gaza will have “freedom of movement” inside the Strip.Netanyahu’s statement did not even address the condition for Israel to maintain control of the Gaza-Egypt border, known as the Philadelphi corridor, which is considered the most contentious demand. Axios reported in July that Netanyahu made the demand after there was a breakthrough in the negotiations concerning the issue of the Gaza-Egypt border. Israel was demanding weapons smuggling through the Philadelphi Corridor be prevented, and Egypt had agreed to build an “underground wall” on the border, which would be funded by the US. “We will not allow the smuggling of weapons to Hamas from Egypt, first and foremost through Israeli control of the Philadelphi Corridor and the Rafah Crossing,” Netanyahu said after those concessions were made.
Gallant Calls Netanyahu's Goal of 'Total Victory' in Gaza 'Nonsense' - On Monday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s calls for “total victory” in Gaza “nonsense,” prompting a rebuke from Netanyahu.Gallant made the comments at a hearing of the Israeli Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee when asked why Israel hasn’t invaded Lebanon.“I hear the heroes beating the drums [of war], the ‘total victory’ and nonsense,” Gallant said, according to Haaretz. “I’ve seen this courage when it comes up for discussion. The conditions for war in Lebanon that exist today are the opposite of what they were at the beginning of the war.” Gallant said that he wanted to take action against Hezbollah at the beginning of Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza and that he wanted a preemptive strike, but he was denied. “There was a chance to attack the hive then, and now the terrorists are now swarming like bees,” he said.In response to Gallant’s comments, Netanyahu’s office accused the defense minister of adopting an “anti-Israel narrative.” The office said in a statement that Hamas was to blame for the lack of a ceasefire deal in Gaza despite widespread acknowledgment that Netanyahu has been sabotaging the chances of an agreement.“When Gallant adopts the anti-Israeli narrative, he harms the chances of reaching a deal for the release of the hostages,” Netanyahu’s office said. “He should have criticized [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar, who refuses to send a delegation for negotiations and remains the only obstacle to a hostage deal.”Gallant and other top Israeli military and security officials favor a ceasefire deal in Gaza, but only a temporary one. Israeli media recently reported that the US is willing to give Israel a guarantee that it could restart its genocidal campaign in Gaza after the first phase of any deal with Hamas.One reason why Israeli generals want a hostage deal with Hamas is to give the Israeli military rest to prepare for a full-blown war in Lebanon. Gallant has previously said that a ceasefire in Gaza would mean escalation against Hezbollah.Netanyahu and Gallant has been at odds for the past ten months, and US officials are said to prefer dealing with the defense minister over the prime minister. “In contrast with the prime minister, the defense minister enjoys the trust of the American administration and is considered ‘the voice of reason’ against Netanyahu, who is seen as someone who makes decisions that are meant to support his personal survival,” a senior Israeli official told Haaretz. While considered more reasonable than Netanyahu, Gallant has been itching for war in Lebanon, and comments from him referring to Palestinians have been some of the most cited when people have argued Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. In the wake of October 7, Gallant announced a “complete siege” and said the Israeli military was fighting “human animals” in Gaza, which is populated by about one million children.
Netanyahu Blasts Own Defense Minister For 'Anti-Israel' Comments --The Office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated the call for "absolute victory" against Hamas following critical remarks regarding such a strategy by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, the Times of Israel reported Monday.Defense Minister Gallant took a jab at Prime Minister Netanyahu during a Knesset committee discussion about Israel’s response to the ongoing fighting against Hezbollah along the northern border with Lebanon. "I hear all the heroes with the war drums, the ‘absolute victory’ and this gibberish," he said during a meeting of Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.Gallant made the statement after he was asked why Israel has not initiated a full-scale war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, adding, "The conditions today for war in Lebanon are unlike those at the beginning of the war [last October]."A short time later, the Prime Minister’s Office released a statement titled: "Gallant is bound by ‘absolute victory,’ too.""When Gallant adopts an anti-Israel narrative, he hurts the chances of reaching a hostage deal," the statement said."He should have attacked [Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar], who refuses to send a delegation to negotiations and who was and remains the only obstacle to the hostage deal."Netanyahu has stated that Israel must achieve "absolute victory" by eliminating Hamas’s military and governance capabilities and winning the release of the remaining 111 Israeli captives held by the Hamas since its 'Operation Al-Aqsa Flood' on 7 October. "This is the clear directive of Prime Minister Netanyahu and the cabinet, and it is binding on everyone – including Gallant," the statement concludes.
Russian court orders $1.2 B of Linde UK assets be frozen --A Russian court has ordered that assets worth around $1.15 B of a British subsidiary of German industrial gases company Linde be frozen in a dispute over a gas processing plant, court filings showed on Wednesday. RusChemAlliance, which filed the lawsuit, is a joint venture 50% owned by Russia's Gazprom. RusChemAlliance has filed several other suits against European banks over the construction of a gas processing plant in Russia with Germany's Linde that was terminated due to Western sanctions. RusChemAlliance had asked the Court of Arbitration of St Petersburg and the Leningrad Region to impose interim measures by freezing assets belonging to the subsidiary, Linde Russia UK Limited, worth €746 MM ($820.7 MM) and 30.7 B roubles ($333.3 MM). The claimant argued that freezing assets was necessary as Western sanctions would make it impossible to enforce a future judgement in a jurisdiction that Russia considers “unfriendly,” and that Linde was trying to withdraw its assets from Russian territory, the filings show. RusChemAlliance also argued that Linde companies did not have sufficient assets inside Russia to enforce a judgement. In January 2023, the same court ordered nearly $500 MM of Linde's assets be frozen. The court accepted RusChemAlliance's claim, determining that the British subsidiary's claim rights over several gas plants on Russian territory be frozen, as well as funds in the company's bank accounts, securities and real estate. In 2021, Linde and Renaissance Heavy Industries signed an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract with Gazprom and its partners for the Ust-Luga gas complex. Linde notified the customer in May and June 2022 that it had suspended work under the contract due to European Union sanctions imposed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. RusChemAlliance has alleged that EU sanctions ban supplying equipment for the liquefied natural gas plant but do not cover equipment required for the other part of the Ust-Luga complex - a gas processing plant.
Russia evacuates 180K civilians as Vladimir Putin decries attack in Kursk region - Russia has evacuated some 180,000 people from Kursk as President Vladimir Putin decried a Ukrainian offensive in the border region and accused Kyiv of seeking to “create discord” and “instill fear” in his country. Putin on Monday held a security meeting with the governors that oversee border regions with Ukraine and promised the Ukrainian troops marching miles across his country would be wiped out by a stiff Russian response. The acting governor of Kursk, Alexei Smirnov, said Ukraine has advanced more than 7 miles into the region in an area about 24 miles wide, taking about 28 settlements, according to independent Russian outlet Novaya Gazeta. In Kursk, 120,000 people have evacuated and another 60,000 are expected to leave soon. In remarks published by the Kremlin, Putin said Ukraine had invaded Kursk in order to grab territory for negotiations but that he refused to negotiate with people who “attack civilians and civilian infrastructure, or pose threats to nuclear power facilities.” “The leaders of the Kiev regime are not only perpetrating crimes against the Russian people but are also, in effect, pursuing the destruction of their own citizens, the Ukrainian people, whom they evidently no longer view as their own,” Putin said. “The adversary will undoubtedly face a strong response, and all the objectives we have set will certainly be achieved.” Ukrainian forces, who broke into Kursk in a surprise offensive on Aug. 6, now control more than 600 square miles of Russian territory, according to a Telegram post from Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who acknowledged for the first time Sunday that his forces were operating in Russia, said Kyiv would continue to work to “ensure peace.” “Russia brought war to others, and now it is coming home,” Zelensky said in his nightly video address. Ukrainian troops are fighting to gain control of several major towns in Kursk, including Sudzha and another town just northwest, Korenevo. Russian forces are struggling to beat back the Ukrainian advance, even with Putin redeploying forces to push them out. Russian military bloggers also reported that Ukraine appears to have begun digging trenches and other defenses in Kursk, a sign that they are preparing to hold territory, at least for the time being. Kyiv’s surprise incursion comes as Russian forces are continuing to press forward across the 600-mile front in eastern Ukraine. Putin on Monday said Ukraine’s Kursk offensive was intended to distract from those efforts but claimed Russian troops were increasing their advances and would not be deterred.
Ukrainian Shelling Causes Fire at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant - Ukrainian shelling started a fire at one of the cooling towers at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, according to Zaporizhzhia’s Russian-installed governor, Yevgeny Balitsky.The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said its experts stationed at the ZNPP, which has been under Russian control since February 2022, saw dark smoke rising at the plant after hearing multiple explosions. They were told by plant officials that one of the cooling towers was targeted by an alleged Ukrainian drone attack.The IAEA said there was no reported impact on nuclear safety as a result of the fire, and Balitsky said radiation levels around the plant were normal.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is claiming that the fire was started by Russians who control the plant. The ZNPP is located in the town of Enerhodar on the south bank of the Dnieper River. Russia controls the territory on the southern bank, while Ukraine controls the territory on the northern side.
Russia's Parliamentary Left Calls for Assassination of Zelensky and His Cabinet - In a statement from Sergey Mironov, the leader of the Just Russia – For Truth Party, representing the socialist left in the Russian state Duma or parliament, the veteran politician said that in response to strikes on the Zaporozhskaya Nuclear Power Plant, “it is necessary to eliminate with pinpoint strikes the terrorist leaders in Kiev”.“The attacks on the Zaporozhskaya NPP should be regarded as an attempt to use weapons of mass destruction against Russia,” Mironov said, arguing this gives the Federation every right to return fire with nuclear weapons. “If the Kiev regime and its masters continue nuclear escalation, then this can be regarded as the use or readiness to use weapons of mass destruction against Russia”.He concluded his statement by noting it’s not necessary to use nuclear bombs, but rather simply to assassinate those responsible for escalating to the brink of their use.The statement captures the pressure that Vladimir Putin is under from multiple sides of his government to “take the gloves off,” to use Western parlance, and move to total war.Especially when considering the rhetoric surrounding it, the war in Ukraine even at this late stage has been remarkably limited in its scope. Historically speaking, this is indisputable.Certain massacres, such as the case in the village of Bucha, the use of cluster munitions by both sides, and a steady stream of errant bombs and missile strikes all over urban Ukraine, certainly have occurred, and often constitute war crimes according to the Geneva Conventions.Yet compared to nearly all other armed conflicts across the 21st century, in terms of various markers such as the destruction on a societal level, the number of civilian casualties, and the frequency with which civilian infrastructure like water treatment facilities and hospitals are struck, the conflict has gone on as close to the letter of international law as has happened practically since the creation of the concept.Russian forces have refrained from strategic bombing of the large Ukrainian cities of Kyiv, L’viv, Kharkiv, and Kherson, such as what was carried out against the Germans, British, and Japanese in the Second World War. Missile strikes targeting communications or power infrastructure are common, but indiscriminate bombing, such as what was seen in Iraq when the US launched over 100,000 piloted airstrikes on Baghdad, has not occurred.For example, rail transport has been vital not only to allow refugees to flee embattled cities in eastern Ukraine, but to transport Western military equipment into the country, yet there have been less than ten instances of major attacks on railway infrastructure since the conflict began, and less than ten targeting trains carrying civilians; one was located in Russia.Furthermore, certain areas of the Ukrainian economy, even excluding military-related sectors, are growing, such as the publishing industry. Ukraine’s largest bookstore chains have opened up dozens of new locations, with plans to open over dozens more by the end of 2024. In the Historic Center of Lviv, a UNESCO World Heritage Site that is considered in danger because of the conflict, bombing has caused the deaths of around 21 civilians in the entire county in which the city is located. Contrast that to US/Saudi bombing of the Historic Center of Sanaa, Yemen, another UNESCO World Heritage Site considered in danger, where 1,685 civilians were killed in the city itself, and dozens of buildings that make up the UNESCO designation were hit in the first five years of war.Assassination or the organized hunting and killing of enemy political leaders during conflicts in the 21st century has occurred in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and most recently over Gaza, but not Ukraine. The fact that the political opposition to Putin is calling for it suggests, at least partially, that as evil as Putin is portrayed in American media, his grip on Russia may be, at least in part, to suffocate much more reckless and dangerous forces.
NATO main battle tanks are operating inside Russia in Kursk offensive -- Sky News reported Thursday that British Challenger 2 main battle tanks have been deployed inside Russia as part of the NATO-Ukrainian offensive against Russia’s Kursk region. The United States, Britain and Germany have given Ukraine hundreds of Abrams, Challenger 2 and Leopard 2 main battle tanks. But the report by Sky News is the first confirmation that these vehicles have been used inside the Russian border by Ukrainian troops. On August 6, thousands of Ukrainian troops began pouring over the Russian border region of Kursk, forcing the evacuation of 120,000 people from the province and surrounding regions. In recent days, Ukrainian troops carried out attacks on the region of Belgorod, where evacuations have also taken place. On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Ukrainian forces have taken full control of the Russian town of Sudzha, home to critical pipeline infrastructure for providing Russian natural gas to Europe. The town, which is six miles inside the border, is one of 80 settlements Ukraine claims to have seized in its 10-day offensive. Zelensky also claimed that Ukrainian troops had captured more than 100 Russian prisoners of war. On Wednesday, Oleksandr Syrskyi, head of the Ukrainian armed forces, said that Ukraine now controls 1,150 square kilometers of Russian territory. CNN reported Thursday that Russia has diverted thousands of troops from the Donbas region in an attempt to stop the Ukrainian offensive. In the most extensive comment by a NATO official to date, General Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s top military commander, said Thursday, “Suffice it to say that it appears to be going quite well. ... They found an area of weakness in the Russians’ position, and they exploited it quickly and have exploited it very skillfully.” US Republican war hawk Senator Lindsey Graham likewise praised the offensive, declaring it “bold, brilliant and beautiful. Keep it up,” adding, “Putin started this. Kick his ass.” While US and NATO officials and their media propagandists initially claimed that NATO was not informed of Ukraine’s plans to attack Russia, this claim is becoming more difficult to sustain. In an article published Thursday, the New York Times wrote, “American intelligence agencies, as disclosures last year showed, have known about Ukraine’s ambition to attack across the border for more than a year.” It continued, “And indeed, recent policy shifts by the Biden administration made the operation possible. Under pressure from his advisers and key allies, Mr. Biden in late May authorized Ukraine to conduct limited strikes inside Russia with American-made weapons, opening what was expected to be a new chapter in the war for Ukraine.” The Times added, “Mr. Biden’s decision appeared to be the first time that an American president had allowed limited military responses on artillery, missile bases, and command centers inside the borders of a nuclear-armed adversary.”
Ukrainian troops trained in UK before attacking Kursk - The UK’s Sun reported Friday that Ukrainian troops who participated in the attack on the Russian province of Kursk had trained in the United Kingdom, adding to the growing evidence of NATO’s leading role in preparing and coordinating the attack. “A month before they were dispatched to Kursk, some of the unit were sent to England where they underwent a few days of training alongside British soldiers,” the Sun reported. A major focus of the training was raids on high-rise buildings. The UK, US, France and Germany have trained tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops on their own territory, teaching them how to operate the advanced weapons systems that have been provided to Ukraine and are now flowing into Russian territory. The list of NATO-provided military hardware confirmed to be deployed in the Kursk offensive is growing. On Thursday, Sky News reported that Challenger 2 main battle tanks from the UK were being deployed as part of the offensive. This follows confirmation from Voice of America that HIMARS long-range missiles had been used in the offensive. Vladislav Seleznyov, a former spokesman for the Ukrainian armed forces’ general staff, told Voice of America that HIMARS were “critical to the stunning advance. “The real scourge of the Russian army is the HIMARS, which turns into ashes a huge amount of weapons, equipment and personnel of the Russian army,” Seleznyov said. Nikolay Patrushev, an adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, told Izvestia that the attack on Kursk was “planned with the involvement of NATO and Western special services.”
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